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Category: Analysis Assessment

  • MIL-Evening Report: Espionage cost Australia $12.5 billion in 2023-24, ASIO boss Mike Burgess says

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Espionage cost Australia $12.5 billion in 2023-24, according to a study by ASIO and the Australian Institute of Criminology.

    The figure includes the direct costs of known espionage incidents, including state-sponsored theft of intellectual property, as well as the indirect costs of countering and responding.

    Details of the Cost of Espionage report were released by the head of ASIO, Mike Burgess, in delivering the annual Hawke Lecture on Thursday night. Espionage is defined as “the theft of Australian information by another country that is seeking an advantage over Australia”.

    Burgess said the Institute estimated foreign cyber spies stole nearly $2 billion from Australian companies and businesses in trade secrets and intellectual property in 2023-24.

    In one instance, spies hacked into a major Australian exporters computer network, stealing commercially sensitive information.

    “The theft gave the foreign country a significant advantage in subsequent contract negotiations, costing Australia hundreds of millions of dollars.”

    Burgess pointed to another espionage incident several years ago when an overseas delegation visited a sensitive Australian horticultural facility.

    A delegation member entered a restricted area and photographed a rare, valuable variety of fruit tree. A staff member intervened and deleted the image but it later turned out several of the tree’s branches had been stolen and smuggled out of Australia.

    “Almost certainly, the stolen plant material allowed scientists in the other country to reverse engineer and replicate two decades of Australian research and development.”

    In another instance, an Australian defence contractor invented and sold a world-leading innovation.

    At first sales boomed but then they collapsed, and “customers began flooding the company’s repair centre with faulty products. While the returns looked genuine, closer examination revealed they were cheap and nasty knock offs.

    “An investigation uncovered what happened.

    “One year earlier, a company representative attended a defence industry event overseas and was approached by an enthusiastic local. She insisted on sharing some content via a USB, which was inserted into a company laptop. The USB infected the system with malware allowing hackers to steal the blueprints for the product.

    “Almost certainly, the ‘enthusiastic local’ worked for a foreign intelligence service. The blueprints were given to a state-owned enterprise which mass-produced the knock-offs and deprived the Australian company millions of dollars in lost revenue – the tangible cost of espionage.”

    Burgess said many entities do not realise their secrets have been stolen by espionage.

    He stressed the institute was deliberately conservative, only modelling costs it could confirm and calculate.

    “That means many of the most serious, significant and cascading costs of espionage are not included in the 12.5 billion dollar figure. The potential loss of strategic advantage, sovereign decision-making and warfighting capacity hold immense value, but not a quantifiable dollar value.”

    “The Institute estimates Australia prevented tens of billions of dollars of additional costs by stopping or deterring spying,” Burgess said.

    He said ASIO estimated the espionage threat “will only intensify. It is already more serious and sophisticated than ever before, so our response must also be more serious and sophisticated than ever before.”

    Russian spies booted out in 2022

    Burgess confirmed that in 2022 a number of “undeclared Russian intelligence officers” were removed from Australia.

    “The decision followed a lengthy ASIO investigation that found the Russians recruiting proxies and agents to obtain sensitive information, and employing sophisticated tradecraft to disguise their activities.”

    Last year, two Russian born Australian citizens were charged with an espionage related offence.

    Russian remained a persistent and aggressive espionage threat, Burgess said. “But Russia is by no means the only country we have to deal with.

    “You would be genuinely shocked by the number and names of countries trying to steal our secrets.

    “The obvious candidates are very active – I’ve previously named China, Russia and Iran – but many other countries are also targeting anyone and anything that could give them a strategic or tactical advantage, including sensitive but unclassified information.”

    Burgess said increasingly foreign intelligence services were broadening their collection efforts beyond traditional categories. They were aggressively targeting science and technology, and public and private sector projects, negotiations and investments. This includes Antarctic research, green technology, critical minerals and rare earths extraction and processing.

    ‘A very unhealthy’ interest in AUKUS

    Burgess said foreign intelligence services were “taking a very unhealthy interest in AUKUS and its associated capabilities.”

    “Australia’s defence sector is a top intelligence collection priority for foreign governments seeking to blunt our operational edge, gain insights into our operational readiness and tactics, and better understand our allies’ capabilities.

    “Targets include maritime and aviation-related military capabilities, but also innovations with both commercial and military applications.

    “And with AUKUS, we are not just defending our sovereign capability. We are also defending critical capability shared by and with our partners.”

    He said foreign intelligence services were “proactive, creative and opportunistic” in targeting present and former defence employees.

    There was relentless cyber espionage, in-person targeting and technical collection.

    “In recent years, for example, defence employees travelling overseas have been subjected to covert room searches, been approached at conferences by spies in disguise and given gifts containing surveillance devices.”

    Two dozen major disruptions in the last three years

    Burgess said that ASIO had detected and disrupted 24 major cases of foreign interference in the last three years alone.

    This was more than in the previous eight years combined. They were just the major disruptions – there were many other cases. Among the examples he gave were:

    • spies recruited a security clearance holder who handed over official documents on free trade negotiations

    • foreign companies connected to intelligence services sought to buy access to personal data sets; sought to buy land near sensitive military sites, and sought to collaborate with researchers developing sensitive technologies

    • foreign intelligence services tried to get someone employed as a researcher in a media outlet, aiming to shape reporting and receive early warning of critical stories

    • spies convinced a state bureaucrat to login to a database to obtain details of people considered dissidents by a foreign regime

    • nation state hackers compromised a peak industry body’s network getting sensitive information

    • a foreign intelligence service had multiple agents and their family members apply for Australian government jobs to get access to classified information.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Espionage cost Australia $12.5 billion in 2023-24, ASIO boss Mike Burgess says – https://theconversation.com/espionage-cost-australia-12-5-billion-in-2023-24-asio-boss-mike-burgess-says-262349

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: Aggrieved Liberals stamp their feet, testing Sussan Ley’s authority

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    As any leader of a political party knows, when you demote people they can become difficult, or worse.

    Among Opposition Leader Sussan Ley’s multiple problems are two very unhappy former frontbenchers. Sarah Henderson, who was opposition education spokeswoman last term, and Jane Hume, who had a high profile in finance, were dumped to the backbench in Ley’s reshuffle.

    There were mixed views about Ley’s judgement. But it was clear neither would take the relegation lying down.

    Henderson at the time declared she found it regrettable that “a number of high-performing Liberal women have been overlooked or demoted”. Hume said, ominously, “there is something very liberating about being on the backbench and being able to speak without having to stick to the party line and without having to stick to talking points”.

    This week, both women used their freedom to freelance.

    On the government’s student debt legislation, Henderson made her presence felt by moving an amendment designed to cap indexation. It got only a handful of votes from the crossbench. The opposition abstained.

    Also in the Senate, Hume put down her marker, on a motion moved by One Nation repudiating the net zero target. Predictably, Matt Canavan (Nationals) and Alex Antic (right-wing South Australian Liberal) voted for the motion. The Liberals’ official position – given they’re in no-man’s land, reviewing their policy – was to abstain. But Hume and Andrew McLachlan (a moderate from South Australia), voted against the motion.

    Hume has kept a regular spot on Sky News Australia, an opportunity to use her “liberated” voice.

    Then there’s Andrew Hastie who, despite being a frontbencher, doesn’t feel under collective discipline. Hastie, whom some see as a possible future leader, didn’t get his wish for a non-security portfolio in the reshuffle. Instead, the former defence spokesman was moved to home affairs, a broad job that presents many opportunities.

    When the Western Australian Liberal council passed a motion rejecting net zero at the weekend, Hastie gave his enthusiastic backing.

    He then got stuck into state Liberal leader Basil Zempilas, who had said the WA parliamentary party supported “the status quo on the net zero targets”.

    Hastie fired off a newsletter to supporters declaring, “This motion – moved and supported by my division of Canning – reflects a growing concern from mainstream Australians about our expensive energy bills, unreliable supply, and the erosion of our national sovereignty.

    “I was therefore disappointed to see [Zempilas] publicly dismiss those concerns.”

    The government was quick to exploit this, with Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen telling parliament on Thursday Hastie “will undermine any opposition leader he can find. He’s taking a practice run in Perth for what he intends to do in Canberra, some time in the next 12 months as we all know. He loves undermining leaders of the opposition.”

    Peter Dutton was a disaster for the Liberals, as the election drubbing showed. But he was (mostly) able to impose substantial unity on the parliamentary party.

    That was seen as a big achievement. But it had two downsides. At the time, it stifled what might have been useful internal debate, or warnings, that could have helped the opposition. And now it has left some Liberals who felt they held their tongues last time determined not to do so again. Even those not aggrieved for specific reasons are likely to be more inclined to be outspoken this term.

    Ley will not be able to impose the degree of discipline that Dutton did.

    Meanwhile, as the aggrieved Liberals were stamping their feet, their colleague James Paterson, new to his post of finance spokesman, was seeking to repair some of the political damage the opposition did by its attacks on the public service.

    The hostility to the public service goes back a long way – some might argue it’s ingrained in the Liberals’ DNA. It was strong during Scott Morrison’s prime ministership.

    Dutton promised massive cuts to the Canberra-based public service, which even the Liberals admit would have been unattainable. Hume’s plan to force public servants back into the office five days a week, a policy the opposition had to drop midway through the election campaign, has also left deep suspicion.

    For the Liberals, attacking the public service has always appeared a ready road to savings. But the political dangers are obvious. It is not the seats directly affected – the ACT always votes Labor. But assaults on the public service can be readily segued by the Coalition’s opponents into code for attacks on government services.

    Paterson, who’s also shadow minister for the public service, told an Australian Financial Review summit on government services, “It is not lost on me that promising significant cuts to the size of the APS or changing the way public servants work from home was poorly received and not just here in Canberra.”

    Paterson said, “I have great respect for public servants, and I recognise the significant contributions they make to our democracy.

    “The Coalition aspires to have a respectful, constructive relationship with the APS. We want a motivated, high-performing public service that works in genuine partnership with government to deliver the services Australians rely on. And we want it to do so as a trusted steward of taxpayer dollars.”

    On the basis of history, the public servants will remain suspicious of the Liberals; Paterson’s aim will be to mitigate that as much as possible.

    In a twist on the working-from-home debate, the secretary of the health department, Blair Comley, this week expressed some concern about the implications of the trend.

    “I don’t think anyone is suggesting we go back to a rigid five days a week and no flexibility,” Comley told the AFR summit. But he was worried about what was happening to “learning, development, mentoring, and what’s happening to the social capital”.

    Knowing the sensitivities of the issue, Comley was extremely careful with his words. Hume, having been burned once, was not putting her hand into this particular fire again. “That is not a policy that the Coalition has now, not a policy that we took to the election”, she said. There is a limit to being liberated.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grattan on Friday: Aggrieved Liberals stamp their feet, testing Sussan Ley’s authority – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-aggrieved-liberals-stamp-their-feet-testing-sussan-leys-authority-262026

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The company tax regime is a roadblock to business investment. Here’s what needs to change

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Robson, Deputy Chair, Productivity Commission, and Adjunct Professor, Queensland University of Technology

    Erman Gunes/Shutterstock

    Productivity growth is a key driver of improvements in living standards. But in Australia over the last decade, output per hour worked grew by less than a quarter of its 60-year average.

    We urgently need to turn this around.

    That’s why the government has asked the Productivity Commission – where I am deputy chair – to conduct five inquiries and identify priority reforms.

    As a first step to boost productivity growth, we need business to expand and invest in the tools and technology that help us get the most out of our work.

    Unfortunately, some of our most important policy settings are holding us back.

    Business investment has slumped

    Capital expenditure by all non-mining firms is down 3.2 percentage points as a share of the economy since the end of the global financial crisis in 2009.

    And the ever-growing thicket of rules and regulations faced by business is a significant handbrake on growth.

    The Productivity Commission’s first interim report, Creating a more dynamic and resilient economy, focuses on two big policy levers: tax and regulation.

    Lower company tax rates are likely to attract more overseas firms to invest in Australia and help people start and grow businesses. They may strengthen the ability of smaller firms, which contribute the bulk of capital investment, to compete with larger ones.

    Our draft recommendations include:

    • Cutting the company tax rate to 20% from 25% or 30% for businesses with revenue under A$1 billion – the vast majority of companies

    • Introducing a new 5% net cash-flow tax on all firms. This supports companies’ capital expenditure by allowing them to immediately deduct the full value of their investments.

    The company tax rate would remain at 30% for firms earning over $1 billion. This would affect about 500 companies.

    In line with other developed nations

    The reduction in Australia’s headline company tax rate would move Australia from having one of the highest to one of the lowest rates for small and medium-sized firms among developed economies.

    And if the net cashflow tax is effective, it could be expanded over time and fund broader reductions in company income tax.

    Our modelling indicates these two changes would increase investment in the economy by $8 billion and boost Australia’s GDP by $14 billion, with no net cost to the budget over the medium term.

    An abundance of red tape

    The interim report also notes regulation can enhance productivity and protect against harms. But too much, or inappropriate, regulation can disproportionately inhibit economic dynamism and resilience.

    Australia’s regulatory burden has grown. Businesses report spending more and more on regulatory compliance.

    Regulators and policymakers have a broad mandate to further the public interest. But they can face incentives to be overly risk-averse and to downplay the burden that regulations place on businesses. They may pursue narrow goals at the expense of broader economy-wide goals.

    There are many practical examples that illustrate the problem.

    In the Australian Capital Territory, for example, the average time a house builder must wait for a planning decision is nearly six months. In New South Wales, it takes an average of nine years to get approval to build a wind farm.

    This kind of unnecessary and costly over-regulation ultimately benefits nobody.

    More scrutiny needed

    Simply put: Australia’s regulatory culture needs to change. And cultural change starts at the top.

    As a first step, the government needs to make a clear, whole-of-government public commitment to reducing regulatory burdens, and ensure new regulatory proposals face greater cabinet and parliamentary scrutiny.

    Regulators need to look for ways to promote economic growth, while continuing to ensure Australians are protected against avoidable harms.

    Ministers could issue statements of expectations to regulators and regulatory policymakers that clearly indicate how much risk they should tolerate in pursuit of business dynamism.

    To improve the evaluation of cumulative regulatory burdens, the Productivity Commission should be tasked with a regular and systematic stream of reviews. These would focus on sectors or regulatory systems where complex and enduring thickets of regulation have emerged.

    The draft recommendations on tax and regulation set out in the interim report are clear, actionable and ambitious reforms. They will support governments in delivering a meaningful and measurable boost to Australia’s lagging productivity.

    Alex Robson is deputy chair of the Productivity Commission.

    – ref. The company tax regime is a roadblock to business investment. Here’s what needs to change – https://theconversation.com/the-company-tax-regime-is-a-roadblock-to-business-investment-heres-what-needs-to-change-261652

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Pacific tsunami: modern early warning systems prevent the catastrophic death tolls of the past

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ian Main, Professor of Seismology and Rock Physics, University of Edinburgh

    The earthquake in Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula on July 30 2025 may have been one of the most severe on record, with a magnitude of 8.8. But innovations in science and technology gave governments vital time to warn and evacuate their people from the resulting tsunami.

    Millions of people escaped to higher ground before the tsunami hit.

    The 2004 Boxing Day 9.3 magnitude earthquake and tsunami in Sumatra, which caused approximately 230,000 deaths, some as far away as Somalia on the other side of the Indian Ocean, shows how important these warnings are.

    Early warning systems were not in place for the Indian Ocean in time for the 2004 disaster. But there is now a system in place, with 27 countries participating in the group effort.

    The 2004 tsunami was particularly tragic because tsunami waves travel at a steady speed in the open ocean, about as fast as a jet plane. This means they can take several hours to reach shore across an ocean, with plenty of time for warning.

    An early warning system for the Pacific Ocean, based in Hawaii, was created in 1948 following a deadly tsunami two years before. On April 1 1946, the magnitude 8.6 Aleutian Islands earthquake in the northern Pacific Ocean generated a tsunami that devastated parts of Hawaii hours later, leading to 146 fatalities.

    The death toll was exacerbated by the leading wave being downwards. This happens in around 50% of tsunamis, and exposes the seashore in a similar way to when the tide goes out, but exposing a larger area than normal. People sometimes investigate out of curiosity, bringing them closer to the danger.

    The accuracy and response times of early tsunami warnings have significantly improved since 1948.

    How tsunamis happen

    To understand the work involved in protecting coastal communities, first you need to understand how tsunamis are generated.

    Tsunamis are caused by displacement of mass on the sea floor after an earthquake, landslide or volcanic eruption. This provides an energy source to set off a wave in the deep sea, not just near the surface like in the ocean waves we see whipped up by the wind and storms. Most are small. The Japanese word tsunami translates somewhat innocuously as “harbour wave”.

    Detailed global mapping of the sea floor, pioneered by US geologist Marie Tharpe between 1957 and 1978, helped establish the modern theory of plate tectonics. It also improved the physical models for how the tsunami will travel in the ocean.

    Wave height increases as it approaches the shore, and the topography of the sea floor can result in a complicated pattern of wave interference and concentration of the energy in stream-like patterns. The establishment of sea-floor observatories led to better data for the pressure at the sea floor (related to wave height) and satellite networks now directly monitor wave height globally using radar signals from space.

    One of the factors that has helped scientists predict the range of a tsunami includes the setting up of the worldwide standard station network of seismometers in 1963, which allowed better estimations of earthquake location and magnitude.

    These were superseded by the digital broadband global network of seismometers in 1978, which allowed more detail on the source to be calculated quickly. This includes a better estimate of earthquake size, the source rupture area and orientation in three dimensions.

    It also tells scientists about the slip, which controls the pattern of displacement on the sea floor. This data is used to forecast the time of landing, the amplitude of the wave on the shoreline, and its height in areas where the wave travels further inland.

    The Pacific Ocean warning system now has 46 countries contributing data. It also uses physical and statistical models for estimating tsunami height. The models developed as scientists learnt more about earthquake sources, mapped features on the sea floor and tested model forecasts against outcomes.

    Today’s technology

    The early warning systems we have today are due to a decades-long commitment to global research collaboration and open data. Scientists have also improved their forecast methods. Recently they started using trained AI algorithms which could improve the timeliness and accuracy.

    Pioneered by the US Geological Survey, rapid data sharing is now used routinely to estimate earthquake parameters and make them available to the public soon after the rupture stops. This can be within minutes for an initial estimate then updated over the next few hours as more data comes in.

    However, the forecast wave height is inherently uncertain, variable from place to place, and may turn out to be more or less than expected. Similarly, large earthquakes are rare, making it hard to estimate how likely they are on average, and therefore to design appropriate mitigation measures.

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan destroyed or overtopped the eight-metre high protective sea walls that had been put in place based on such hazard estimates. There were over 19,000 fatalities. As a consequence, their height has been increased to 12-15 metres in some areas.

    Early warning systems also rely on rapid communication to the public, including mass alerts communicated by mobile phone, coordination by the relevant authorities across borders, clear advice, and advance evacuation plans and occasional alarm tests or drills. Although tsunami waves slow down to the speed of a car as they approach the shore, it is impossible to outrun one, so it is better to act quickly and calmly.

    The effectiveness of warnings also means accepting a degree of inconvenience in false alarms where the tsunami height is less than that forecast, because this is inevitable with the uncertainties involved. For good reason, authorities issuing alerts will err on the side of caution.

    To give an example, nuclear power plants on Japan’s eastern seaboard were shut down on July 30.

    So far it looks like the Pacific early warning system – combined with effective levels of preparedness and action by service providers and decision makers – has worked well in reducing the number of casualties that might have happened without it.

    There will always be a level of uncertainty we will have to live with. On balance, it is a small price to pay for avoiding a catastrophe.

    Ian Main is professor of Seismology and Rock Physics at the University of Edinburgh. He receives funding from UK Research and Innovation Research Council, a member of the UK Office for Nuclear Regulation Expert panel on external hazards, and acts as an independent reviewer for the Energy Industry-funded SeIsmic hazard and Ground Motion Assessment research program SIGMA3.

    – ref. Pacific tsunami: modern early warning systems prevent the catastrophic death tolls of the past – https://theconversation.com/pacific-tsunami-modern-early-warning-systems-prevent-the-catastrophic-death-tolls-of-the-past-262283

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Vasectomy, pain and regret: what online forum Reddit reveals about men’s experiences

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kevin Pimbblet, Professor and Director of the Centre of Excellence for Data Science, AI and Modelling, University of Hull

    Fabian Montano Hernandez/Shutterstock

    Vasectomy has long been regarded as a permanent, safe and effective form of contraception. Its benefits are often summarised as minimally invasive and largely risk-free.

    But that may not be the full story.

    In recent years, vasectomy rates in the UK have declined significantly. It’s a puzzling trend, given that the procedure’s efficacy hasn’t changed. What has arguably shifted is how men talk about it. Not in doctors’ offices, but online.

    As an AI researcher working with large-scale public data, I led a 2025 study using natural language processing (NLP) – a branch of artificial intelligence that analyses patterns in human language – to examine thousands of posts from r/vasectomy and r/postvasectomypain, which are subreddits (topic-specific discussion forums) on Reddit, a social media platform where users share and comment on content in themed communities.

    My goal wasn’t to weigh in on urology (I’m not that kind of doctor), but to explore the emotional tone and self-reported outcomes in digital spaces where users speak candidly and in real time.

    The findings are revealing and raise important questions about informed consent, online health discourse and the growing influence of social data on healthcare communication.

    Fear, regret and pain?

    The most common emotional response to vasectomy, whether being considered or already undergone, is fear. To assess this, we used a tool called NRClex, a crowd-trained emotion classifier. This is an AI model trained on thousands of labelled examples to detect emotional tone in text. It found that “fear” dominated more than 70% of user-generated content.

    This isn’t surprising. Men on Reddit ask questions like “How bad is the pain?” “How long does it last?” and “Will I regret this?” These are not rare concerns: they’re central to the conversation.

    While overall sentiment analysis shows that most users report positive outcomes, a significant minority express deep regret and ongoing pain – sometimes lasting for years after surgery.

    This pain is often described as post-vasectomy pain syndrome (PVPS), a relatively little-known condition defined by new or chronic scrotal pain that continues for more than three months after the procedure.

    PVPS is poorly understood and may have multiple causes, some anatomical, some neurological and some still unclear. Though some health authorities describe it as “rare,” our Reddit data suggests it could be more common, or at least more disruptive, than currently acknowledged.

    We analysed more than 11,000 Reddit posts and found that the word “pain” appeared in over 3,700 of them; roughly one-third. In many cases, the pain described persisted well beyond the expected recovery period. The word “month” appeared in nearly 900 pain-related posts, while “year” appeared in over 600.

    This is noteworthy. Post-surgical pain is typically expected to resolve within days or weeks. Yet our dataset suggests that 6%–8% of Reddit users discussing vasectomy report longer-term discomfort – a rate that aligns with the upper estimates in the urological studies. More recent research, including a large-scale postoperative study, argues that the incidence is likely much lower, perhaps under 1%.

    Of course, we must emphasise that these are self-reported experiences. Not all mentions of “pain” equate to a formal PVPS diagnosis. It’s also important to acknowledge that people who are dissatisfied with a medical procedure are generally more likely to post about it online – a well-recognised bias in social data. Even so, the volume, consistency and emotional intensity of these posts suggest the issue warrants closer attention from clinicians and researchers alike.

    Even more strikingly, around 2% of posts mention both “pain” and “regret”, implying serious, potentially life-altering consequences for a small but significant group of people.

    On r/postvasectomypain – a subreddit specifically dedicated to discussing PVPS – the tone is even more sobering. Unsurprisingly, 74% of posts describe persistent, long-term pain. Additionally, 23% mention pain during sex and 27% report changes in sensitivity.

    Posts on this forum also frequently reference vasectomy reversal surgery far more often than more specialised interventions such as microsurgical denervation: a complex nerve-removal procedure used in severe cases of chronic testicular pain, typically when other treatments have failed.

    From AI to andrology: an ethical crossroads

    Why is a professor of AI and physics analysing pain in urology forums?

    Because in today’s digital world, people increasingly turn to online platforms like Reddit for health advice, peer support and decision-making – often before speaking to a clinician. As an AI researcher, I believe we have a responsibility to examine how these discussions shape public understanding, and what they can teach us about real-world healthcare challenges.

    In this case, it’s possible that the drop in vasectomy uptake is linked, at least in part, to the open and emotional sharing of negative outcomes online. These posts are not scaremongering. They’re detailed, candid and often highly specific. They represent a type of real-world evidence that clinical trials and formal studies don’t always capture.

    So, what should we take from all this?

    Terms like “rare”, often used in consent forms and clinical conversations, can obscure the complexity and variability of patient outcomes. Pain following vasectomy, whether mild, temporary, chronic or debilitating, appears common enough to warrant more transparent and nuanced communication.

    This is not an argument against vasectomy. It remains a safe, effective, and empowering option in reproductive planning. But truly informed consent should reflect both the clinical literature and the experiences of those who undergo the procedure, especially when such experiences are now publicly available in large volumes.

    In a world where online forums double as health diaries, support networks and informal research registries, we must take them seriously. Medical language matters. Terms like “rare”, “uncommon” or “low risk” carry real emotional and moral weight. They shape expectations and influence decisions.

    If even a small percentage of men experience long-term pain after vasectomy, that risk should be communicated clearly, in plain English – ideally with a range of percentages drawn from published studies.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Kevin Pimbblet currently receives funding from STFC, EPSRC, The British Academy, The Royal Astronomical Society, The British Ecological Society, and The Office for Students. None are in direct relation to this work.

    – ref. Vasectomy, pain and regret: what online forum Reddit reveals about men’s experiences – https://theconversation.com/vasectomy-pain-and-regret-what-online-forum-reddit-reveals-about-mens-experiences-261633

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Who is Odysseus, hero of Christopher Nolan’s new epic?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephan Blum, Research associate, Institute for Prehistory and Early History and Medieval Archaeology, University of Tübingen

    Somewhere between hero and hustler, family man and philanderer, king and con artist, Odysseus is one of ancient literature’s most complex figures. In the Iliad, he is the mastermind behind the Trojan horse.

    In Homer’s Odyssey, he is the protagonist of a ten-year journey home – one that sees him encounter gods, monsters, temptations and profound moral dilemmas. Next year, he will be the hero of a new Christopher Nolan epic, and played by Matt Damon.

    Odysseus’s journey from Troy to Ithaca in the Odyssey is anything but a straight line. It’s an epic zigzag through storms, temptations, divine grudges and existential threats. Instead of returning in weeks, he spends a decade adrift.

    He is stranded by nymphs, resists sirens and watches his crew perish one by one. Every stop tests not only his wit but his very sense of self.

    The Odyssey isn’t a tale of noble perseverance. It’s a study in survival. Odysseus deceives, disguises and entangles himself in morally grey romantic liaisons with a sorceress (Circe), nymph (Calypso) and princess (Nausicaa). He does so often as strategist and sometimes as willing participant.

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    In Homer’s world, infidelity is a tool of survival. Odysseus survives not through moral clarity, but through his moral agility. His loyalty to his wife Penelope (reportedly played by Anne Hathaway in the new adaptation) is longitudinal, not linear. His compass is always aimed at returning to Ithaca, if not always in a straight line.

    Would this flexibility pass modern ethical scrutiny? Probably not. But what made him successful wasn’t moral integrity – it was his ability to navigate each situation, even if that meant bending the rules.

    While Odysseus adapts, Penelope endures with strategic resilience. For 20 years, she fends off suitors with deft delay tactics. She avoids them by weaving and unweaving a funeral shroud for her husband’s father, Laertes. It’s a defiant, slow motion resistance campaign, waged with thread and silence.

    Penelope and the Suitors by John William Waterhouse (1912).
    Aberdeen Art Gallery

    If Odysseus navigates external monsters, Penelope masters the domestic battlefield. Her fidelity in her husband’s absence is deliberate, political and astute. In a patriarchal world, her power lies in pause. Her story is one of emotional labour and strategic survival.

    Narrative loops and non-linear journeys

    The Odyssey is an ancient masterpiece of non-linear storytelling. It begins in the middle of the action and uses nested narratives, flashbacks and shifting voices. Odysseus tells much of his own story, reframing events from his point of view and reshaping himself in hindsight. Memory becomes montage. Truth bends to necessity. Fact and fiction bleed into one another.

    Homer doesn’t just tell a story – he constructs a labyrinth. The Odyssey anticipates the fractured forms of modernist literature and cinema, where identity is unstable and time itself is malleable.

    Odysseus and Penelope by Johann Heinrich Wilhelm Tischbein (1802).
    Wiki Commons

    When Odysseus finally returns to Ithaca, disguised as a beggar and quietly assessing his ship’s wreckage, it’s no romantic climax. It’s a calculated risk. Penelope doesn’t swoon; she tests. Only when he passes her intimate knowledge test – he reacts with outrage when she suggests moving their bed, which he built around a living olive tree – does she relent. Their reunion is not a Hollywood embrace but a wary negotiation.

    It signals restoration, yes. But also mistrust, trauma and mutual testing. Homecoming, like survival, is complicated.

    Odysseus is not a flawless hero. He is a survivor who negotiates with monsters, debates with gods and crawls home disguised as a beggar. A man shaped as much by cunning as by consequence.

    Would Odysseus pass a modern ethics exam? Certainly not. Would he charm the professor, flip the question and still walk out with an A? Absolutely. Some stories endure not because they are true, but because they were told by survivors.

    This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who is Odysseus, hero of Christopher Nolan’s new epic? – https://theconversation.com/who-is-odysseus-hero-of-christopher-nolans-new-epic-261781

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: England’s new free speech law comes into force – what it means for universities

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Eric Heinze, Professor of Law and Humanities, Queen Mary University of London

    Matej Kastelic/Shutterstock

    The Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act 2023 comes into force throughout England on August 1 2025. Designed to stop universities from censoring controversial or unpopular ideas, the law gives the Office for Students responsibility for ensuring institutions comply.

    This law will mean that many universities will have to change the way they approach free speech.

    When it comes to adopting campus speech policies, educational establishments have always had three choices.

    One option has been to follow the law, permitting whichever messages the law already allows, while banning whichever messages the law already forbids. UK law prohibits, for example, certain core expressions of racism, anti-LGBTQ+ hatred, Islamophobia, antisemitism, or glorification of terrorism. I’ll call this the “legalist” option.

    Another approach is to allow more speech than the law allows. This would, for example, permit guest lecturers to advocate white supremacy or the belief that only heterosexual relationships and behaviour are normal. I’ll call this the “libertarian” option. It treats free speech as sacrosanct.

    But this option would never be adopted. Few institutions would welcome the torrent of parental complaints, media publicity, donor withdrawals, police investigations, or full-blown litigation that would follow.

    A third option is to permit less speech than the law allows. This would mean, for example, banning sexist speech, which is otherwise still permitted under UK law. We can call this the “communitarian” option. It views educational institutions as more than just places for exchanging ideas: they must also promote civic values, aiming to build an empathic society.

    Changing approaches

    In the past, British universities could choose option three, cancelling or avoiding events featuring messages that, although legal, risk stoking campus divisions.

    Some institutions have stopped controversial speakers through decisions by senior leadership. For example, in 2013 UCL’s senior administrators banned a group that advocated sex segregation. Other times, efforts to cancel events have been made by students or staff. In 2015, the University of York cancelled events for International Men’s Day after complaints from students and staff.

    The effect of the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act will be to shift universities from the communitarian to the legalist model. Campus members wishing to stage events will still have to comply with routine guidelines on reserving campus venues, ticketing participants, ensuring security controls, and the like. However, under the act, universities may no longer impede the communication of otherwise legal messages solely on the grounds of their provocative content.

    For advocates of free speech, this act may still not go far enough since it keeps an escape hatch. Management can still cancel controversial events if the institution lacks the means to ensure adequate security, and such claims are often difficult to verify.

    Yet for others, the act will go too far. Some would argue that existing law in Britain does not adequately protect vulnerable groups, and that universities should stick to the communitarian ideal, creating a refuge that the law often fails to provide.

    These anxieties become ever greater in our internet era, when misinformation can proliferate. Some may fear that abandoning the communitarian ethos will turn the campus into a wild west of free speech, disproportionately affecting its most vulnerable members.

    The act aims to preserve free speech on university campuses.
    Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock

    However, online communications have also proved to be powerful mobilising tools for staff and students, so online power hierarchies may work in more complex ways than meets the eye.

    Note also that nothing in the act abolishes student welfare services. Individually targeted acts of bullying, threats, stalking and harassment will remain under the aegis of campus oversight as well as UK law. Staff or students exhibiting racist, sexist, homophobic, or transphobic conduct will remain as subject as they were before to disciplinary proceedings and even dismissal or expulsion.

    Finally, it is worth bearing in mind that the act’s most salient ingredients are procedural, placing considerable burdens on institutions to facilitate free speech and deal transparently with accusations of censorship. Yet whether this will lead to an explosion of complaints, and whether ideas exchanged on campus will really differ so much from those we already hear today, remains to be seen.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Eric Heinze has received funding for submitting a report to the UK Commission for Countering Extremism.

    – ref. England’s new free speech law comes into force – what it means for universities – https://theconversation.com/englands-new-free-speech-law-comes-into-force-what-it-means-for-universities-262080

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: English universities now have a duty to uphold freedom of speech – here’s how it might affect students’ sense of belonging

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Richard Bale, Director of Academic Development and Research, Associate Professor, The University of Law

    Cast Of Thousands/Shutterstock

    The Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act, which comes into force on August 1 2025, means universities in England now have a new duty to uphold “robust” strategies to ensure freedom of speech on campus.

    To support universities in navigating the boundaries of lawful and unlawful speech, universities regulator the Office for Students appointed its first director for freedom of speech and academic freedom in 2023. Arif Ahmed, who is also a professor of philosophy at the University of Cambridge, has reportedly said that coming across views students might find offensive is part of a university education.

    It’s possible, though, that feeling offended comes up against the important concept of “belonging” at university. In the context of higher education, belonging is often defined as feeling at home, included and valued. It is linked to more students staying in their courses, having enhanced wellbeing, and being able to learn well at university.

    But feeling offended and feeling you belong at university don’t have to be contradictory. Some of our research has found that belonging can also mean being able to challenge the dominant culture at a university, which may exclude students who don’t fit a particular mould.

    Being able to challenge opinions is important.
    Matej Kastelic/Shutterstock

    Some students explained that they proactively resist the prevalent image of the “typical” student. For example, in highly selective universities, students are often extremely competitive and industrious with a tendency to overwork. But this culture may not align with the work-life balance prioritised by some students.

    This form of “positive not-belonging” often takes the form of friendship groups and communities that cultivate an alternative kind of belonging. These groups may well enable greater freedom of self-expression, without fear of being judged or feeling pressured to conform to pre-existing academic cultures.

    While some students are able to carve out these collective and alternative communities for belonging, many others feel their presence and sense of belonging is conditional – especially minority ethnic students. Clearer advocacy for free speech might help these students feel more comfortable speaking up and building a stronger sense of belonging.

    We must not forget that the idea of belonging carries power dynamics, and often has implications for what is perceived as up for debate – and what is not.

    Existing free speech

    What’s more, the views of students suggest that free speech is already part of their experience at university. In 2023, the Office for Students added a question about freedom of expression to the annual National Student Survey, which gathers final-year undergraduates’ opinions on their higher education experience. The question, added for students at English universities only, asked how “free” students felt to express their ideas, opinions and beliefs.

    The results showed that 86% did feel they had this freedom. This has remained stable in the latest survey, with a slight increase to just over 88% in the 2025 results.

    The Office for Students also commissioned YouGov to poll research and teaching staff at English universities about their perceptions of free speech in higher education in 2024.

    Some positive results mirrored the student data. For example, 89% of academics reported that they are confident they understand what free speech means in higher education. But the polling also found that 21% did not feel free to discuss controversial topics in their teaching.

    This lack of perceived freedom of expression does not only have a negative impact on staff. It is widely understood that a key purpose of higher education is to nurture students’ independent thinking and self-awareness. A key step toward this goal is not to be afraid of engaging in difficult conversations, including asking questions.

    However, this does not happen automatically. Universities need to provide clear scaffolding, guidance and practical steps to protect freedom of speech. It is also important to normalise and promote conversations about topics such as cultural differences and intercultural competence, which refers to the ability to interact with people from different cultural backgrounds effectively and appropriately.

    If addressed, these discussions can help to foster inclusion, and promote diversity of thought and expression.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. English universities now have a duty to uphold freedom of speech – here’s how it might affect students’ sense of belonging – https://theconversation.com/english-universities-now-have-a-duty-to-uphold-freedom-of-speech-heres-how-it-might-affect-students-sense-of-belonging-260867

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: New peace plan increases pressure on Israel and US as momentum grows for Palestinian statehood

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin

    A new vision for Middle East peace emerged this week which proposes the withdrawal of Israel from Gaza and the West Bank, the disarming and disbanding of Hamas and the creation of a unified Palestinian state. The plan emerged from a “high-level conference” in New York on July 29, which assembled representatives of 17 states, the European Union and the Arab League.

    The resulting proposal is “a comprehensive and actionable framework for the implementation of the two-state solution and the achievement of peace and security for all”.

    Signatories include Turkey and the Middle Eastern states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan. Europe was represented by France, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Spain and the UK. Indonesia was there for Asia, Senegal for Africa, and Brazil, Canada and Mexico for the Americas. Neither the US nor Israel were present.

    Significantly, it is the first time the Arab states have called for Hamas to disarm and disband. But, while condemning Hamas’s attack on Israel of October 7 2023 and recalling that the taking of hostages is a violation of international law, the document is unsparing in its connection between a state of Palestine and an end to Israel’s assault on Gaza’s civilians.

    It says: “Absent decisive measures toward the two-state solution and robust international guarantees, the conflict will deepen and regional peace will remain elusive.”

    A plan for the reconstruction of Gaza will be developed by the Arab states and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation – a Jeddah-based group which aims to be the collective voice of the Muslim world – supported by an international fund. The details will be hammered out at a Gaza Reconstruction and Recovery Conference, to be held in Cairo.

    It is a bold initiative. In theory, it could end the Israeli mass killing in Gaza, remove Hamas from power and begin the implementation of a process for a state of Palestine. The question is whether it has any chance of success.

    First, there appears to be growing momentum to press ahead with recognition of the state of Palestine as part of a comprehensive peace plan leading to a two-state solution. France, the UK and, most recently, Canada have announced they would take that step at the UN general assembly in September. The UK stated that it would do so unless Israel agreed to a ceasefire and the commencement of a substantive peace process.



    Read more:
    UK and France pledges won’t stop Netanyahu bombing Gaza – but Donald Trump or Israel’s military could

    These announcements follow those made in May 2024 by Spain, Ireland and Norway, three of the other European signatories. By the end of September at least 150 of the UN’s 193 members will recognise Palestinian statehood. Recognition is largely symbolic without a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from both Gaza and the West Bank. But it is essential symbolism.

    For years, many European countries, Canada, Australia and the US have said that recognition could not be declared if there was the prospect of Israel-Palestine negotiations. Now the sequence is reversed: recognition is necessary as pressure for a ceasefire and the necessary talks to ensure the security of both Israelis and Palestinians.

    Israel accelerated that reversal at the start of March, when it rejected the scheduled move to phase two of the six-week ceasefire negotiated with the help of the US, and imposed a blockade on aid coming into the Strip.

    The Netanyahu government continues to hold out against the ceasefire. But its loud blame of Hamas is becoming harder to accept. The images of the starvation in Gaza and warnings by doctors, humanitarian organisations and the UN of an effective famine with the deaths of thousands can no longer be denied.

    Saudi Arabia and Qatar, behind the scenes and through their embassies, have been encouraging European countries to make the jump to recognition. Their efforts at the UN conference in New York this week are another front of that campaign.

    Israel and the Trump administration

    But in the short term, there is little prospect of the Netanyahu government giving way with its mass killing, let alone entering talks for two states. Notably neither Israel nor the US took part in the conference.

    Trump has criticised the scenes of starvation in Gaza. But his administration has joined Netanyahu in vitriolic denunciation of France and the UK over their intentions to recognise Palestine. And the US president has warned the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, that recognition of Palestinian statehood would threaten Canada’s trade deal with the US.

    In response to Trump’s concern over the images of starving children and his exhortation “We’ve got to get the kids fed,” Israel has airdropped a few pallets of aid – less than a truck’s worth. Yet this appears more of a public relations exercise directed at Washington than a genuine attempt to ease the terrible condition on the Strip.

    A small number of lorries with supplies from UN and humanitarian organisations have also crossed the border, but only after lengthy delays and with half still held up. There is no security for transport and delivery of the aid inside Gaza.

    A sacrifice for a state?

    So the conference declaration is not relief for Gaza. Instead, it is yet another marker of Israel’s increasing isolation.

    After France’s announcement, the Netanyahu government thundered: “Such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy … A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel.”

    But while recognising Hamas’s mass killing of October 7 2023, most governments and their populations do not perceive Israel as attacking Hamas and its fighters. They see the Netanyahu government and Israeli military slaying and starving civilians.

    Even in the US, where the Trump administration is trying to crush sympathy for Palestine and Gazans in universities, non-governmental organisations and the public sphere, opinion is shifting.

    In a Gallup poll taken in the US and released on July 29, only 32% of respondents supported Israel’s actions in Gaza – an all-time low – and 60% opposed them. Netanyahu was viewed unfavourably by 52% and favourably by only 29%.

    Israel has lost its moment of “normalisation” with Arab states. Its economic links are strained and its oft-repeated claim to being the “Middle East’s only democracy” is bloodstained beyond recognition.

    This will be of no comfort to the people of Gaza facing death. But in the longer term, there is the prospect that this sacrifice will be the catalyst to recognise Palestine that disappeared in 1948.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. New peace plan increases pressure on Israel and US as momentum grows for Palestinian statehood – https://theconversation.com/new-peace-plan-increases-pressure-on-israel-and-us-as-momentum-grows-for-palestinian-statehood-262259

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: New peace plan increases pressure on Israel and US as momentum grows for Palestinian statehood

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin

    A new vision for Middle East peace emerged this week which proposes the withdrawal of Israel from Gaza and the West Bank, the disarming and disbanding of Hamas and the creation of a unified Palestinian state. The plan emerged from a “high-level conference” in New York on July 29, which assembled representatives of 17 states, the European Union and the Arab League.

    The resulting proposal is “a comprehensive and actionable framework for the implementation of the two-state solution and the achievement of peace and security for all”.

    Signatories include Turkey and the Middle Eastern states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan. Europe was represented by France, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Spain and the UK. Indonesia was there for Asia, Senegal for Africa, and Brazil, Canada and Mexico for the Americas. Neither the US nor Israel were present.

    Significantly, it is the first time the Arab states have called for Hamas to disarm and disband. But, while condemning Hamas’s attack on Israel of October 7 2023 and recalling that the taking of hostages is a violation of international law, the document is unsparing in its connection between a state of Palestine and an end to Israel’s assault on Gaza’s civilians.

    It says: “Absent decisive measures toward the two-state solution and robust international guarantees, the conflict will deepen and regional peace will remain elusive.”

    A plan for the reconstruction of Gaza will be developed by the Arab states and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation – a Jeddah-based group which aims to be the collective voice of the Muslim world – supported by an international fund. The details will be hammered out at a Gaza Reconstruction and Recovery Conference, to be held in Cairo.

    It is a bold initiative. In theory, it could end the Israeli mass killing in Gaza, remove Hamas from power and begin the implementation of a process for a state of Palestine. The question is whether it has any chance of success.

    First, there appears to be growing momentum to press ahead with recognition of the state of Palestine as part of a comprehensive peace plan leading to a two-state solution. France, the UK and, most recently, Canada have announced they would take that step at the UN general assembly in September. The UK stated that it would do so unless Israel agreed to a ceasefire and the commencement of a substantive peace process.



    Read more:
    UK and France pledges won’t stop Netanyahu bombing Gaza – but Donald Trump or Israel’s military could

    These announcements follow those made in May 2024 by Spain, Ireland and Norway, three of the other European signatories. By the end of September at least 150 of the UN’s 193 members will recognise Palestinian statehood. Recognition is largely symbolic without a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from both Gaza and the West Bank. But it is essential symbolism.

    For years, many European countries, Canada, Australia and the US have said that recognition could not be declared if there was the prospect of Israel-Palestine negotiations. Now the sequence is reversed: recognition is necessary as pressure for a ceasefire and the necessary talks to ensure the security of both Israelis and Palestinians.

    Israel accelerated that reversal at the start of March, when it rejected the scheduled move to phase two of the six-week ceasefire negotiated with the help of the US, and imposed a blockade on aid coming into the Strip.

    The Netanyahu government continues to hold out against the ceasefire. But its loud blame of Hamas is becoming harder to accept. The images of the starvation in Gaza and warnings by doctors, humanitarian organisations and the UN of an effective famine with the deaths of thousands can no longer be denied.

    Saudi Arabia and Qatar, behind the scenes and through their embassies, have been encouraging European countries to make the jump to recognition. Their efforts at the UN conference in New York this week are another front of that campaign.

    Israel and the Trump administration

    But in the short term, there is little prospect of the Netanyahu government giving way with its mass killing, let alone entering talks for two states. Notably neither Israel nor the US took part in the conference.

    Trump has criticised the scenes of starvation in Gaza. But his administration has joined Netanyahu in vitriolic denunciation of France and the UK over their intentions to recognise Palestine. And the US president has warned the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, that recognition of Palestinian statehood would threaten Canada’s trade deal with the US.

    In response to Trump’s concern over the images of starving children and his exhortation “We’ve got to get the kids fed,” Israel has airdropped a few pallets of aid – less than a truck’s worth. Yet this appears more of a public relations exercise directed at Washington than a genuine attempt to ease the terrible condition on the Strip.

    A small number of lorries with supplies from UN and humanitarian organisations have also crossed the border, but only after lengthy delays and with half still held up. There is no security for transport and delivery of the aid inside Gaza.

    A sacrifice for a state?

    So the conference declaration is not relief for Gaza. Instead, it is yet another marker of Israel’s increasing isolation.

    After France’s announcement, the Netanyahu government thundered: “Such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy … A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel.”

    But while recognising Hamas’s mass killing of October 7 2023, most governments and their populations do not perceive Israel as attacking Hamas and its fighters. They see the Netanyahu government and Israeli military slaying and starving civilians.

    Even in the US, where the Trump administration is trying to crush sympathy for Palestine and Gazans in universities, non-governmental organisations and the public sphere, opinion is shifting.

    In a Gallup poll taken in the US and released on July 29, only 32% of respondents supported Israel’s actions in Gaza – an all-time low – and 60% opposed them. Netanyahu was viewed unfavourably by 52% and favourably by only 29%.

    Israel has lost its moment of “normalisation” with Arab states. Its economic links are strained and its oft-repeated claim to being the “Middle East’s only democracy” is bloodstained beyond recognition.

    This will be of no comfort to the people of Gaza facing death. But in the longer term, there is the prospect that this sacrifice will be the catalyst to recognise Palestine that disappeared in 1948.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. New peace plan increases pressure on Israel and US as momentum grows for Palestinian statehood – https://theconversation.com/new-peace-plan-increases-pressure-on-israel-and-us-as-momentum-grows-for-palestinian-statehood-262259

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 5 reasons why wind farms are costing more in Australia – and what to do about it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Magnus Söderberg, Professor and Director, Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research, Griffith University

    Saeed Khan/Getty

    Building a solar farm in Australia is getting about 8% cheaper each year as panel prices fall and technology improves, according to an official new report. Battery storage costs are falling even more sharply, dropping 20% over the past year alone.

    But the same can’t be said for wind farms, the second-largest source of renewable energy in Australia. Onshore wind costs actually rose about 8% in 2023–24 and another 6% in 2024–25.

    The findings are contained in the GenCost 2024–25 report by CSIRO and the Australian Energy Market Operator, released this week.

    Rising costs are putting real pressure on the wind industry, undermining investor confidence. Developers of offshore wind projects are walking away, and even cheaper on-shore wind projects are under strain. Even as wind energy becomes a mainstay in China, the United States and Germany, the industry faces real headwinds in Australia.

    This is surprising. Wind, like solar, was projected to get steadily cheaper. The fuel is free and turbines are getting better and better. Instead, wind in Australia has remained stubbornly expensive. Solving the problem will be challenging. But solutions have to be found fast if Australia is to reach the goal of 82% renewable power in the grid by 2030 – now less than five years away.

    Australia has no offshore wind projects up and running – and cost spikes may put planned projects at risk.
    Obatala-photography/Shutterstock

    Five reasons why this is happening

    Here’s what’s going on:

    1. Global supply chains have been disrupted

    The cost of steel, copper, fibreglass and other materials vital for wind turbines shot up during the pandemic. As a result, turbine prices rose almost 40% between 2020 and 2022. While input costs have fallen, turbine prices remain high. Solar panels can be churned out in factories, but modern wind turbines are massive, complex structures that require specialised manufacturing and logistics. That makes them more sensitive to global price fluctuations.

    2. Good wind is often in remote places

    Australia’s best wind resources are typically far from cities and existing grid infrastructure. Connecting far-flung wind farms such as Tasmania’s Robbins Island to the grid can require new and very expensive transmission lines. Remote sites mean extra costs such as temporary worker accommodation. The GenCost report notes this has added about 4% to wind project budgets in 2024–25 compared with the year before.

    Many other countries rely heavily on offshore wind, because wind blows more strongly and reliably over oceans. Unfortunately, spiking costs are likely to further delay the arrival of offshore wind in Australia. GenCost projects the first offshore wind projects in Australia will face even steeper costs.

    Good wind resources are often located in remote areas of Australia.
    Brook Mitchell/Stringer via Getty

    3. Local construction and labour costs have soared

    Australia faces a shortage of workers with the skills to build and maintain wind farms, resulting in higher wages and recruitment costs. Wind developers say construction costs have become a real issue. Wind farms are more labour-intensive than solar.

    4. Interest rates have raised financing costs

    Wind farms require large upfront investments and lengthy construction periods. Even a small increase in interest rates can make them unviable – and interest rates have been high for some time.

    5. Reliability concerns, regulatory delay and community opposition

    According to US researchers, technical issues have emerged for some new wind turbines, creating unexpected costs for developers. The long, complex process of getting permits, carrying out environmental assessments and building community support is pushing out project timelines, increasing costs and uncertainty for developers.

    Will solar take over?

    Solar faces far fewer challenges. Solar panels are mass-produced, meaning costs are steadily driven down through economies of scale. Panels can be deployed quickly and solar farms tend to face less community opposition.

    Wind turbines have to spin to function, while solar panels have no moving parts (though systems that track the Sun do). As a result, solar farms require less maintenance and are more reliable.

    It’s no surprise large-scale solar has been on a record-breaking run, growing 20-fold between 2018 and 2023.

    Solar panels make electricity during daylight hours, especially in summer. By contrast, wind tends to produce more power at night and during winter months. This is why wind is so useful to a green grid.

    Generating power from both wind and sunshine can slash how much storage is needed to ensure grid reliability, lowering overall system costs. A balanced mix of wind, solar and storage will meet Australia’s electricity needs more efficiently and reliably than just solar and storage, according to the International Renewable Energy Agency and independent researchers.

    Could wind come back?

    Making wind more viable will take work. Potential solutions do exist, such as expanding the skilled workforce and investing in specialised ships and equipment to install turbines offshore.

    Shipping large turbines from Denmark or China is expensive. To avoid these costs, it could make sense to encourage local manufacturing of large and heavy parts such as the main tower.

    Other options include finding lower-cost turbine suppliers and streamlining regulatory processes.

    Rising material and labour costs have driven up the cost of wind turbines. Pictured: turbine blades in China’s Jiangsu province in 2022 about to be shipped to Australia.
    Xu Congjun/Future Publishing via Getty Images

    The newly announced expansion of the government’s Capacity Investment Scheme could help reduce risks and give certainty, alongside public investment in new transmission lines.

    If nothing is done or if new measures don’t help, wind is likely to stall while solar and storage race ahead.

    That’s not the worst outcome. Australia could get a long way by relying on batteries and pumped hydro to store power from solar during the day and release it in the evenings, as California is doing. But this strategy involves trade offs, such as higher storage-capacity needs and the risk of insufficient power during long cloudy periods.

    For Australia to optimise its mix of renewables and storage, policymakers will have to tackle wind’s cost challenges. Effective action could lower costs, accelerate project timelines and bolster flagging investor confidence.

    Magnus Söderberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 5 reasons why wind farms are costing more in Australia – and what to do about it – https://theconversation.com/5-reasons-why-wind-farms-are-costing-more-in-australia-and-what-to-do-about-it-262126

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 31, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 31, 2025.

    5 reasons why wind farms are costing more in Australia – and what to do about it
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Magnus Söderberg, Professor and Director, Centre for Applied Energy Economics and Policy Research, Griffith University Saeed Khan/Getty Building a solar farm in Australia is getting about 8% cheaper each year as panel prices fall and technology improves, according to an official new report. Battery storage costs are

    Sporty spice: how romance fiction is adding a new dynamic to sports fandom
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kasey Symons, Lecturer of Communication, Sports Media, Deakin University Sports fans might love their teams, cheer or curse each game’s result and admire their favourite athletes, but we rarely associate sports with romance. However, that may be slowly changing thanks to the recent spike in the popularity

    Just as NZ began collecting meaningful data on rainbow communities, census changes threaten their visibility
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lori Leigh, Research Fellow in Public Health, University of Otago Getty Images New Zealand’s 2023 census was the first to collect data on gender identity and sexual orientation, showing one in 20 adults identify as LGBTQIA+. But just as reports from this more inclusive census are being

    Big tech says AI could boost Australia’s economy by $115 billion a year. Does the evidence stack up?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Uri Gal, Professor in Business Information Systems, University of Sydney Imaginima / Getty Images AI is on the agenda in Canberra. In August, the Productivity Commission will release an interim report on harnessing data and digital technology such as AI “to boost productivity growth, accelerate innovation and

    Progress on Closing the Gap is stagnant or going backwards. Here are 3 things to help fix it
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Madeleine Pugin, Research Fellow, School of Government and International Relations, Griffith University The Productivity Commission’s latest data on Closing the Gap progress represents an unsurprisingly grim overview of the socioeconomic inequalities experienced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples. Closing the Gap is the plan federal and

    More than 2 in 5 young Australians are lonely, our new report shows. This is what could help
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle H. Lim, Associate Professor, Sydney School of Public Health, University of Sydney Oliver Rossi/Getty Images Loneliness is not a word often associated with young people. We tend to think of our youth as a time spent with family, friends and being engaged with school and work

    How migrant business owners turn their identity into an asset, despite some bumps along the way
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shea X. Fan, Associate Professor, Human Resource Management, Deakin University Odua Images/Shutterstock Too often, it’s anti-immigration sentiment dominating headlines in Australia. But a quieter story is going untold. Migrants are not just fitting into Australian society, they’re actively reshaping it through entrepreneurship. Starting a business is difficult

    The Man from Hong Kong at 50: how the first ever Australian–Hong Kong co-production became a cult classic
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Ferris, Senior Lecturer, Media Arts & Production, University of Technology Sydney LMPC via Getty Images A cinematic firecracker of a film exploded onto international screens 50 years ago this week, blending martial arts mayhem, Bond-esque set pieces, casual racism – and a distinctly Australian swagger. From

    Rules for calculating climate risk in financial reporting by NZ businesses need revisiting – new research
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martien Lubberink, Associate Professor of Accounting and Capital, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Andrew MacDonald/Getty Images The recent International Court of Justice (ICJ) decision on climate action marked a significant step forward in formalising an idea many already accept: climate inaction is not merely

    Climate justice victory at the ICJ – the student journey from USP lectures to The Hague
    By Vahefonua Tupola in Suva The University of the South Pacific (USP) is at the heart of a global legal victory with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivering a historic opinion last week affirming that states have binding legal obligations to protect the environment from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. The case, hailed as a

    Climate justice victory at the ICJ – the student journey from USP lectures to The Hague
    By Vahefonua Tupola in Suva The University of the South Pacific (USP) is at the heart of a global legal victory with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivering a historic opinion last week affirming that states have binding legal obligations to protect the environment from human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. The case, hailed as a

    Kamchatka earthquake is among top 10 strongest ever recorded. Here’s what they have in common
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University Today at about 11:30am local time, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off the coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula in the country’s far east. Originating at a depth of roughly 20 kilometres, today’s powerful earthquake – among the ten strongest in recorded

    Kamchatka earthquake is among top 10 strongest ever recorded. Here’s what they have in common
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dee Ninis, Earthquake Scientist, Monash University Today at about 11:30am local time, a magnitude 8.8 earthquake struck off the coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula in the country’s far east. Originating at a depth of roughly 20 kilometres, today’s powerful earthquake – among the ten strongest in recorded

    Tsunami warnings are triggering mass evacuations across the Pacific – even though the waves look small. Here’s why
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor and Principal Fellow in Urban Risk and Resilience, The University of Melbourne Last night, one of the ten largest earthquakes ever recorded struck Kamchatka, the sparsely populated Russian peninsula facing the Pacific. The magnitude 8.8 quake had its epicentre in the sea just

    NAPLAN is just one test. Here’s what to do if your child’s results were in the bottom bands
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sally Larsen, Senior Lecturer in Education, University of New England Rawpixel/ Getty Images The latest round of NAPLAN results are out, along with a string of news reports about “students falling behind” and “failing”, and experts sounding the “alarm” about school progress. In March, all Australian students

    Inflation slows again — but is it enough for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stella Huangfu, Associate Professor, School of Economics, University of Sydney Doublelee/Shutterstock Inflation is moving in the right direction, but new figures released today may not be soft enough to trigger a cut in official interest rates in August. The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the June quarter

    With the UK and France moving toward recognising Palestine, will Australia now follow suit?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University One of the smallest and most exclusive clubs in the world belongs to states. The US Department of State puts the number of independent recognised states at 197, while others count 200. The United Nations, meanwhile, has 193

    With the UK and France moving toward recognising Palestine, will Australia follow suit?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University One of the smallest and most exclusive clubs in the world belongs to states. The US Department of State puts the number of independent recognised states at 197, while others count 200. The United Nations, meanwhile, has 193

    An underwater observatory keeping the pulse of the Southern Ocean for nearly 30 years yields fresh results
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Traill, PhD Candidate Southern Ocean biogeochemistry, University of Tasmania Elizabeth Shadwick In a world affected by climate change, the Southern Ocean plays an outsized role. It absorbs up to 40% of the human-caused emissions taken up by the oceans while also being home to some of

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: independent MP Allegra Spender on making tax fairer for younger Australians

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    With parliament now finished its first fortnight’s session, attention will soon be on the government’s August 19-21 economic reform roundtable, bringing together business, unions, experts and community representatives to pursue consensus on ways to lift Australia’s flagging productivity.

    Independent member for Wentworth Allegra Spender is one of the 25 participants invited to the roundtable. She’s particularly focused on tax reform and last week held a tax roundtable of her own.

    Spender joined the podcast to talk about making tax fairer, the need for greater economic reform, climate policy, the social media ban for under 16s, a ceasefire in Gaza, and more.

    On her ambitions on tax policy, Spender says income tax indexation is something that would benefit younger, working Australians:

    Myself and actually another number of crossbenchers […] wrote to both the government and the opposition last term, really pushing for tax indexation. And really the heart of this is startling statistics from last term. The [Reserve Bank of Australia] put out some information that showed that bracket creep was a bigger impost on average households’ budgets than the RBA increases in the interest rate.

    […] Just to give you two statistics about young working people: households over the age of 65, in the last 10 odd years, have grown their wealth by around 50%. Households under the age of 35 have not grown their worth at all, pretty much. So they are going backwards relative to the rest of the country. A household, two households, both on a $100,000, sitting next to each other. If [one] household is retired, they have to pay on average half the tax of a working age household.

    Spender says the system is stacked against young people, who “are really struggling economically compared to previous generations”.

    It’s in your early and midlife that you need money for housing, to raise kids and everything else. So we don’t have a tax system that works for younger people. We have a tax system that burdens younger people strongly and then actually gives people more tax breaks when they’re older, and normally wealthier.

    On climate targets, Spender says while she’ll be guided by the yet-to-be-provided Climate Change Authority’s advice, she wants to see Australia “try and lead other countries” – pointing to the United Kingdom, which has set a target to cut emissions by at least 81% by 2035.

    The Climate Change Authority put out their interim guidance to say that a target within 65 to 75% [emissions reduction on 2005 levels] was both achievable from an economic point of view and also appropriate towards a scientific point of view.

    My view is that we should be at the very top end of that. Now, if the Climate Change Authority significantly reviews, you know, revises down their targets, I will reconsider. But I think really what we should be doing is to say how can we be as ambitious as possible. And the reason I think that is important is actually, you know, from a business point of view, ambition and certainty is what they need to make the big investments that will actually achieve it.

    Ambition is needed from a scientific point of view, because if we took, say, less than 75% [emissions reduction], and the rest of the world did too, we would be looking at outcomes that are catastrophic for Australia. Regular days in Sydney and Melbourne that are above 50 degrees. A huge loss of coral reef. Continued adverse weather events.

    On the news that the government will include YouTube in its social media ban for under 16s, Spender says it’s now up to social media companies to make their websites safer to lift the bans.

    My eldest daughter [who’s 12] has a strong view on this. And she’s actually a big fan of the ban. She was like, ‘I just don’t understand how it makes sense to leave YouTube in and TikTok out’. […] She’s not on social media, but other people are, and she finds it sometimes frustrating.

    But I think the challenge on this is always going to be the implementation. I think it’s fiendishly complicated to implement. I think genuinely the most valuable part of this ban is actually the signal to families and parents about what is expected and what isn’t.

    […] I think the ball’s in the social media companies’ courts. If they want to move to a life beyond the ban, they need to show how they can make their platforms safe for younger Australians, because I don’t think they have delivered that to date. So I’d be open if they can provide the evidence of how they can change things. I’m always open minded to reversing or changing those bans. But at the moment, [social media] isn’t safe.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: independent MP Allegra Spender on making tax fairer for younger Australians – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-independent-mp-allegra-spender-on-making-tax-fairer-for-younger-australians-262225

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grief is the Thing with Feathers comes to the stage with a glorious intensity of purpose

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Huw Griffiths, Associate Professor of English Literature, University of Sydney

    Brett Boardman/Belvoir

    The idea of the titular Crow in Ted Hughes’ poems is wild, untameable and irreducible to words. In an early poem in the sequence, words come at Crow from all angles but he just ignores them. Finally, “Words retreated, suddenly afraid / Into the skull of a dead jester / Taking the whole world with them”.

    Crow just yawns: “long ago / He had picked that skull empty”. A figure that is ancient and beyond the reach of gods or human belief systems, Hughes’ Crow resists ever being pinned down or fully understood.

    In Max Porter’s 2015 novella, Grief is the Thing with Feathers, a version of Hughes’ Crow enters the life of a bereaved Dad, newly left to look after his two sons after the death of his wife.

    Dad is a literary scholar, writing a book about Ted Hughes, and Crow is a metaphor come to life, some version of the endless grief through which he is living.

    But Porter’s Crow is not quite the same thing as Hughes’ irredeemable half-myth/half-beast. This crow cares: “I do eat baby rabbits, plunder nests, swallow filth, cheat death […] But I care, deeply. I find humans dull except in grief”. And he is self-aware, too – aware that Hughes’ mythical beast image can also just be a performance, a piece of schtick: “I do this, perform some unbound crow stuff, for him”.

    Now, a new adaptation of the novella brings the story to the Belvoir stage.

    Devastation and renewal

    Toby Schmitz as both Dad and Crow is just brilliant. He exactly captures the messy contradictions of this situation, shifting between the quiet melancholy and stifled rage of the widower and the restless, contradictory energies of Crow.

    The latter he performs in recognisable Schmitz fashion: a leery and mischievous outsider, challenging the audience and holding their attention just as much as he teases, taunts and cajoles both Dad and his two sons.

    His performance brings out the humour of Porter’s book, the sense of its own absurdity that shadows his story of devastation and tentative renewal.

    Toby Schmitz as both Dad and Crow is just brilliant.
    Brett Boardman/Belvoir

    Also on stage are Philip Lynch and Fraser Morrison as the two boys, doing a great job (as the characters do in Porter’s book) of providing an emotional antidote to the wheeling terror that sometimes spins off Dad’s encounter with Crow.

    Schmitz adapted the book with director, Simon Phillips, and designer, Nick Schlieper. They have only very subtly altered the text in ways that enable a dynamic live performance, conversations between Dad, Crow and Boys.

    Tying the piece together are compelling video direction and live music. The former is genuinely exciting, as it etches the presence of Crow’s mythology across the stage, aided by Craig Wilkinson’s work as illustrator, clearly taking inspiration from Hughes’ original illustrator, Leonard Baskin. Composer and cellist, Freya Schack-Arnott provides a stunning and emotional soundtrack throughout, at times improvising to the action.

    An intensity of purpose

    Porter’s novel is ten years old this year. It has been ridiculously successful for a slender (114 pages) and apparently unconventional book.

    Seeming to imitate some of the conventions of 20th century modernism (non-linear narratives; stream-of-consciousness; an interplay of myth and reality; shifting perspectives from miniscule detail to grand narrative), it should not have been destined to occupy the best-seller list.

    And, yet, multiple awards later, it remains in regular rotation on the central displays of high street bookstores around the world. It has been adapted for the stage before, in a successful production in London starring Cillian Murphy in 2019, and in a less well-received 2025 film starrring Benedict Cumberbatch.

    Philip Lynch and Fraser Morrison as the two boys provide an emotional antidote.
    Brett Boardman/Belvoir

    It would be easy to dismiss this success as something to do with the aesthetic world within which it situates itself. Careful to use Faber and Faber’s classic font, Albertus (something it shares with the Belvoir production when passages are projected above the stage), the book is an elegant product that advertises its own self-conscious literariness.

    But this assessment would miss the brilliance, the sophistication and the tender power of Porter’s writing, as well as the way that the book has already got there before you.

    Porter plays with his own contemporary taming of older and wilder literary traditions. If Hughes’ Crow has been domesticated in Porter’s use of him (I can’t imagine Hughes’ Crow leaving us with the line, “Just be kind and look out for your brother”), he knows that this sentimentality is now hard-earned and not to be ignored.

    What this production adds to Porter’s beautiful book is an intensity of purpose. This is a gloriously collaborative effort, from theatre makers at the height of their powers, to communicate the beauty that persists through the pain and degradation that life throws at us.

    Grief is the Thing with Feathers is at Belvoir St Theatre, Sydney, until August 24.

    Huw Griffiths does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grief is the Thing with Feathers comes to the stage with a glorious intensity of purpose – https://theconversation.com/grief-is-the-thing-with-feathers-comes-to-the-stage-with-a-glorious-intensity-of-purpose-260414

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Kids need to floss too, even their baby teeth. But how do you actually get them to do it?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dileep Sharma, Professor and Head of Discipline – Oral Health, University of Newcastle

    Jonathan Borba/Pexels

    A survey from the Australian Dental Association out this week shows about three in four children never floss their teeth, or have adults do it for them. Many of the survey respondents thought it wasn’t worthwhile for baby teeth.

    As anyone who cares for kids knows, it can be hard enough to get them to brush twice daily, let alone floss.

    So how do you actually get kids to floss? Why do they need to anyway?

    Do kids really need to floss?

    Flossing can reach between the teeth where toothbrushes can’t. It removes the soft food debris and biofilm, a slimy layer on teeth that harbours microbes, and so reduces the risk of dental decay and gum disease.

    So flossing is essential as soon as children’s teeth erupt and are in contact with the next one. This is typically at the age of six to eight months when the lower front teeth start to emerge through their gums.

    But they’re just baby teeth, right?

    You may be thinking flossing is not worth the time or trouble, especially for younger children who’ll lose their baby teeth in a few years anyway.

    However, baby teeth play a vital role in how children’s jaw bones develop and their face appears. And losing baby teeth early – due to the dental decay that can arise from not flossing – can have several effects.

    As a child, it can change their speech and appearance. These can affect a child’s self-esteem and impact their wellbeing, depending on their age.

    Losing baby teeth early can also affect them as a teenager or adult. Baby teeth act as a guide to where permanent teeth should erupt so losing them early can lead to crowding of teeth, needing orthodontic treatment (braces). In fact, premature loss of baby teeth can increase the risk of “malocclusion” or problems in the position of permanent teeth by more than 2.5 times.

    Cleaning between the teeth is also vital for teens to reduce the risk of gingivitis (inflammation of the gums). This is very common in this age group due to changes in hormone levels.

    Yes, it can be challenging

    Setting up a regular flossing routine may be challenging for many families. It’s one more thing to squeeze into the early morning rush to get to school or work. It can be hard to motivate tired children to floss at the end of the day too.

    The technique itself also needs a level of manual dexterity for the kids themselves or for the parents who floss younger kids’ teeth.

    You or your kids may have some form of dental anxiety due to previous negative experiences with dental visits. This may affect dental hygiene, or your likelihood to floss.

    All of these factors can lead to lack of motivation or reluctance to floss, and so increases the risk of dental decay and gum disease in children.

    But there are ways to help you and your kids develop and stick to a flossing regime.

    OK, you’ve convinced me. What next?

    First, gather your equipment.

    Interdental brushes look like mini bottle brushes. These are more effective for larger spaces between adjacent teeth, or if your child has braces.

    Floss or floss picks are only effective for areas with smaller or no spaces between adjacent teeth. Kid-friendly designs, such as animal-shaped and colourful floss and floss picks, can be an excellent option to make this routine more enjoyable. Flavoured floss, or floss that smells like fruit or chocolate can be appealing. Involving kids in the choice of floss or floss picks can boost their motivation to floss.

    Alternatively, a waterjet flosser can make cleaning between the teeth more engaging. It’s as effective as regular dental floss.

    For toddlers and preschoolers, using rewards and positive reinforcements, such as sticker charts or gold stars, can keep kids motivated to floss. So stock up.

    Then choose your timing. Flossing is best done once a day, either in the morning or before bedtime. That’s because flossing can effectively remove biofilm between the teeth for 24 hours. You can floss before or after brushing.

    Parents will need to brush and floss the teeth of infants and children up to five years old, until the children develop their own manual dexterity.

    For infants, it’s easier if one adult holds them upright or sits them on their lap while the other does the flossing. For toddlers and preschoolers it may be easier to floss if they are sitting on the toilet, or standing at the basin with their head tilted back.

    Last of all, lead by example. Kids with parents who regularly floss tend to pick up the routine quickly.

    Any more tips?

    Flossing is only one part of preventing tooth decay and dental diseases, such as gum disease. It’s also important for children to:

    • avoid snacking on food with a high sugar content

    • choose plain water over fruit juices or fizzy drinks

    • avoid falling asleep with a feeding bottle containing milk, fruit juice or sugary liquids

    • avoid using a dummy dipped in sugary liquids or honey

    • clean their tongue while brushing their teeth

    • see a dentist or oral health professional well before their first tooth erupts so they can get used to the idea of a dental appointment.

    Dileep Sharma receives funding from the Dental Council of NSW, International Association for Dental, Oral, and Craniofacial Research, Australian government Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, International College of Dentists and Tropical Australian Academic Health Centre for his dental research projects. He is affiliated with The International Association for Dental, Oral, and Craniofacial Research and Australian Dental Association.

    – ref. Kids need to floss too, even their baby teeth. But how do you actually get them to do it? – https://theconversation.com/kids-need-to-floss-too-even-their-baby-teeth-but-how-do-you-actually-get-them-to-do-it-262209

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Muslim world has been strong on rhetoric, short on action over Gaza and Afghanistan

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University; and Vice Chancellor’s Strategic Fellow, Australian National University

    When it comes to dealing with two of the biggest current crises in the Muslim world – the devastation of Gaza and the Taliban’s draconian rule in Afghanistan – Arab and Muslim states have been staggeringly ineffective.

    Their chief body, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), in particular, has been strong on rhetoric but very short on serious, tangible action.

    The OIC, headquartered in Saudi Arabia, is composed of 57 predominantly Muslim states. It is supposed to act as a representative and consultative body and make decisions and recommendations on the major issues that affect Muslims globally. It calls itself the “collective voice of the Muslim world”.

    Yet the body has proved to be toothless in the face of Israel’s relentless assault on Gaza, triggered in response to the Hamas attacks of October 7 2023.

    The OIC has equally failed to act against the Taliban’s reign of terror in the name of Islam in ethnically diverse Afghanistan.

    Many strong statements

    Despite its projection of a united umma (the global Islamic community, as defined in my coauthored book Islam Beyond Borders), the OIC has ignominiously been divided on Gaza and Afghanistan.

    True, it has condemned Israel’s Gaza operations. It’s also called for an immediate, unconditional ceasefire and the delivery of humanitarian aid to the starving population of the strip.

    It has also rejected any Israeli move to depopulate and annex the enclave, as well as the West Bank. These moves would render the two-state solution to the long-running Israeli–Palestinian conflict essentially defunct.

    Further, the OIC has welcomed the recent joint statement by the foreign ministers of 28 countries (including the United Kingdom, many European Union members and Japan) calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, as well as France’s decision to recognise the state of Palestine.

    The OIC is good at putting out statements. However, this approach hasn’t varied much from that of the wider global community. It is largely verbal, and void of any practical measures.

    What the group could do for Gaza

    Surely, Muslim states can and should be doing more.

    For example, the OIC has failed to persuade Israel’s neighbouring states – Egypt and Jordan, in particular – to open their border crossings to allow humanitarian aid to flow into Gaza, the West Bank or Israel, in defiance of Israeli leaders.

    Nor has it been able to compel Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco to suspend their relations with the Jewish state until it agrees to a two-state solution.

    Further, the OIC has not adopted a call by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and the United Nations special rapporteur on Palestinian territories, Francesca Albanese, for Israel to be suspended from the UN.

    Nor has it urged its oil-rich Arab members, in particular Saudi Arabia and the UAE, to harness their resources to prompt US President Donald Trump to halt the supply of arms to Israel and pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war.

    Stronger action on Afghanistan, too

    In a similar vein, the OIC has failed to exert maximum pressure on the ultra-extremist and erstwhile terrorist Taliban government in Afghanistan.

    Since sweeping back into power in 2021, the Taliban has ruled in a highly repressive, misogynist and draconian fashion in the name of Islam. This is not practised anywhere else in the Muslim world.

    In December 2022, OIC Secretary General Hissein Brahim Taha called for a global campaign to unite Islamic scholars and religious authorities against the Taliban’s decision to ban girls from education.

    But this was superseded a month later, when the OIC expressed concern over the Taliban’s “restrictions on women”, but asked the international community not to “interfere in Afghanistan’s internal affairs”. This was warmly welcomed by the Taliban.

    In effect, the OIC – and therefore most Muslim countries – have adopted no practical measures to penalise the Taliban for its behaviour.

    It has not censured the Taliban nor imposed crippling sanctions on the group. And while no Muslim country has officially recognised the Taliban government (only Russia has), most OIC members have nonetheless engaged with the Taliban at political, economic, financial and trade levels.

    Why is it so divided?

    There are many reasons for the OIC’s ineffectiveness.

    For one, the group is composed of a politically, socially, culturally and economically diverse assortment of members.

    But more importantly, it has not functioned as a “bridge builder” by developing a common strategy of purpose and action that can overcome the geopolitical and sectarian differences of its members.

    In the current polarised international environment, the rivalry among its member states – and with major global powers such as the United States and China – has rendered the organisation a mere talking shop.

    This has allowed extremist governments in both Israel and Afghanistan to act with impunity.

    It is time to look at the OIC’s functionality and determine how it can more effectively unite the umma.

    This may also be an opportunity for its member states to develop an effective common strategy that could help the cause of peace and stability in the Muslim domain and its relations with the outside world.

    Amin Saikal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The Muslim world has been strong on rhetoric, short on action over Gaza and Afghanistan – https://theconversation.com/the-muslim-world-has-been-strong-on-rhetoric-short-on-action-over-gaza-and-afghanistan-262121

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Starmer’s move on Palestinian statehood is clever politics

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Brian Brivati, Visiting Professor of Contemporary History and Human Rights, Kingston University

    Keir Starmer has announced that the UK will recognise Palestinian statehood by September 2025 unless Israel meets certain conditions, marking a significant shift in UK policy.

    For decades, successive UK governments withheld recognition, insisting it could only come as part of a negotiated settlement between Israel and Palestine. This position, rooted in the Oslo accords of the 1990s and aligned with US policy, effectively gave Israel a veto over Palestinian statehood. As long as Israel refused to engage seriously in peace talks, the UK refrained from acting.

    Starmer has now broken with this precedent, potentially aligning the UK with 147 other countries. But the Israeli government must take what the UK calls “substantive steps” toward peace. These include agreeing to a ceasefire in Gaza, allowing full humanitarian access, explicitly rejecting any plans to annex West Bank territory, and returning to a credible peace process aimed at establishing a two-state solution.



    Read more:
    UK to recognise Palestinian statehood unless Israel agrees to ceasefire – here’s what that would mean

    If Israel meets these conditions, the UK would presumably withhold recognition until the “peace process” has been completed. Starmer made clear that Britain will assess Israeli compliance in September and reserves the right to proceed with recognition regardless of Israel’s response. The message was unambiguous: no one side will have a veto.

    This is more than just clever internal politics and party management. Anything that puts any pressure on Israel to move towards peace should be welcomed. But will it amount to much more than that?

    Starmer has faced criticism over the last few years for resisting recognising Palestine as a state. While Labour’s frontbench held the line for much of the past year, rank-and-file discontent has grown – and with it, the political risks.

    At the heart of Labour’s internal tensions lie two irreconcilable blocs. On one side are MPs and activists – both inside the party and expelled from it – who are vocally pro-Palestinian and have been outraged by the government’s failure to act. On the other side are members of the Labour right who continue to back Israel, oppose unilateral recognition of statehood and focus on the terrible crimes of Hamas but not the IDF campaign in Gaza.

    Between them sits a soft-centre majority, for whom foreign policy is not a defining issue. They are not ideologically committed to either side but have become increasingly uneasy with the escalating violence and the UK’s diplomatic inertia.

    As the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza deepens, public outrage in the UK has grown. Mass protests have put mounting pressure on the government to act. Within parliament, over 200 MPs, including many from Labour, signed a letter demanding immediate recognition of Palestine. Senior cabinet ministers reportedly pushed hard for the shift on electoral grounds, as well as principle.

    International dynamics have also played a crucial role. France’s announcement that it would recognise Palestine by September, becoming the first major western power to do so, created additional pressure. Spain, Ireland, Norway and several other European states have already taken the step. Britain chose to align itself with this emerging consensus.

    These pressures combined created a sense of urgency and political opportunity. Starmer’s government appears to be using the threat of recognition as leverage –pressuring Israel to return to negotiations and halt annexation plans.

    The calculation seems to be that Israel will either meet the UK’s conditions or face diplomatic consequences, including recognition of Palestine without its consent. There is also the possibility that Israel will simply ignore the UK and press on with its campaign for “Greater Israel”.

    Challenges ahead

    That is why, while this is a meaningful departure from the past, it is not without problems. Chief among them is the principle of conditionality itself. By making recognition contingent on Israeli behaviour, the UK risks reinforcing the very logic it claims to be rejecting – that Palestinian rights can be granted or withheld based on the actions of the occupying power.

    Recognition of statehood should not be used as a diplomatic carrot or stick. It is a matter of justice, not reward. Palestinians are entitled to self-determination under international law.

    There is also concern that the September deadline could become another missed opportunity. If Israel makes vague or symbolic gestures – such as issuing carefully worded statements or temporarily suspending one settlement expansion – will the UK delay recognition further, claiming that “progress” is being made?

    Palestinians have seen such tactics before. Recognition has been delayed for decades in the name of preserving leverage. But leverage for what?

    The Israeli government, dominated by ultra-nationalists and pro-annexation hardliners, is unlikely to satisfy the UK’s conditions in good faith. The risk is that the deadline becomes a mirage – always imminent, never reached.

    Recognition also comes as part of a proposed new peace plan. This will be supported by the UK, France and Germany, and it allows the government to say it is being consist with its policy that recognition is part of a peace plan.

    If, by some miracle, pressure works and Israel meets all the conditions, then the UK can claim that recognition has played a role in bringing Israel back to the negotiating table.

    But if recognition is then withheld, there will not be two equal actors at that table. The State of Palestine will not have been recognised by key international players, and a new round of western-run peace processes will begin. These do not have a good track record.

    If Israel fails to agree to a ceasefire and let aid into Gaza, then Starmer will be forced to go through with recognition.

    For now, he has defused the internal division in his party. It is clever politics, good party management – it remains to be seen if it is also statesmanship.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Brian Brivati is affiliated with Britain Palestine Project, a Scottish Charity that campaigns for equal rights, justice and security for Israelis and Palestiniains

    – ref. Starmer’s move on Palestinian statehood is clever politics – https://theconversation.com/starmers-move-on-palestinian-statehood-is-clever-politics-262239

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why the Pacific tsunami was smaller than expected – a geologist explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alan Dykes, Associate Professor in Engineering Geology, Kingston University

    The earthquake near the east coast of the Kamchatka peninsula in Russia on July 30 2025 generated tsunami waves that have reached Hawaii and coastal areas of the US mainland. The earthquake’s magnitude of 8.8 is significant, potentially making it one of the largest quakes ever recorded.

    Countries around much of the Pacific, including in east Asia, North and South America, issued alerts and in some cases evacuation orders in anticipation of potentially devastating waves. Waves of up to four metres hit coastal towns in Kamchatka near where the earthquake struck, apparently causing severe damage in some areas.

    But in other places waves have been smaller than expected, including in Japan, which is much closer to Kamchatka than most of the Pacific rim. Many warnings have now been downgraded or lifted with relatively little damage. It seems that for the size of the earthquake, the tsunami has been rather smaller than might have been the case. To understand why, we can look to geology.

    The earthquake was associated with the Pacific tectonic plate, one of several major pieces of the Earth’s crust. This pushes north-west against the part of the North American plate that extends west into Russia, and is forced downwards beneath the Kamchatka peninsula in a process called subduction.

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) says the average rate of convergence – a measure of plate movement – is around 80mm per year. This is one of the highest rates of relative movement at a plate boundary.

    But this movement tends to take place as an occasional sudden movement of several metres. In any earthquake of this type and size, the displacement may occur over a contact area between the two tectonic plates of slightly less than 400km by 150km, according to the USGS.

    The Earth’s crust is made of rock that is very hard and brittle at the small scale and near the surface. But over very large areas and depths, it can deform with slightly elastic behaviour. As the subducting slab – the Pacific plate – pushes forward and descends, the depth of the ocean floor may suddenly change.

    Nearer to the coastline, the crust of the overlying plate may be pushed upward as the other pushed underneath, or – as was the case off Sumatra in 2004 – the outer edge of the overlying plate may be dragged down somewhat before springing back a few metres.

    It is these near-instantaneous movements of the seabed that generate tsunami waves by displacing huge volumes of ocean water. For example, if the seabed rose just one metre across an area of 200 by 100km where the water is 1km deep, then the volume of water displaced would fill Wembley stadium to the roof 17.5 million times.

    A one-metre rise like this will then propagate away from the area of the uplift in all directions, interacting with normal wind-generated ocean waves, tides and the shape of the sea floor to produce a series of tsunami waves. In the open ocean, the tsunami wave would not be noticed by boats and ships, which is why a cruise ship in Hawaii was quickly moved out to sea.

    Waves sculpted by the seabed

    The tsunami waves travel across the deep ocean at up to 440 miles per hour, so they may be expected to reach any Pacific Ocean coastline within 24 hours. However, some of their energy will dissipate as they cross the ocean, so they will usually be less hazardous at the furthest coastlines away from the earthquake.

    The hazard arises from how the waves are modified as the seabed rises towards a shoreline. They will slow and, as a result, grow in height, creating a surge of water towards and then beyond the normal coastline.

    The Kamchatka earthquake was slightly deeper in the Earth’s crust (20.7km) than the Sumatran earthquake of 2004 and the Japanese earthquake of 2011. This will have resulted in somewhat less vertical displacement of the seabed, with the movement of that seabed being slightly less instantaneous. This is why we’ve seen tsunami warnings lifted some time before any tsunami waves would have arrived there.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Alan Dykes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why the Pacific tsunami was smaller than expected – a geologist explains – https://theconversation.com/why-the-pacific-tsunami-was-smaller-than-expected-a-geologist-explains-262273

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: As climate change hits, what might the British garden of the future look like?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adele Julier, Senior Lecturer in Ecology, University of Portsmouth

    Maria Evseyeva/Shutterstock

    Hosepipe bans in summer 2025 will mean many gardeners having to choose which of their plants to keep going with the watering can, and which to abandon. Are these temporary restrictions actually a sign we need to rethink British gardens altogether?

    Climate change will bring the United Kingdom warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. Britain has seen warm periods before, such as in the last interglacial period 130,000 years ago, but the current speed of change is unprecedented. This will have many effects, but it will also change one of the core parts of British life: our gardens.

    Rather than fighting the inevitable and trying to keep growing the same plants we have always grown, how might we adapt what we grow and how we grow it?

    The first to go, tragically for some, may be the classic British lawn. Already this year across the country, large areas of grass are looking parched and brown in the face of a long drought. The traditional lawn has just a few species of grass and is unlikely to be very drought-resistant. You can maintain a grass lawn that is more tolerant of dry weather by using drought-resistant fescue species of grass, and keeping the lawn well aerated (that means putting small holes in it to allow air, water and nutrients to reach the grass roots). But it may still suffer periods in which it looks unhealthy.

    Swapping a lawn for a meadow can increase drought tolerance and decrease maintenance such as regular mowing and watering, because meadows only need to be cut once a year and don’t need as much water. Perhaps instead of lawns we can embrace No Mow May all year round, creating a greater diversity of plant and animal life in gardens.

    Wildflowers such as yarrow and common knapweed can be great for pollinators and the birds that feed on them. These plants are drought-tolerant too.

    As well as challenges in the face of a changing climate, there will be opportunities. Grape vines were grown in Britain in Roman times, and British wine production is once again a growing industry. Regular British gardeners could also grow a wider variety of grape vines, and even make their own wine. Warmer, drier summers could make plants such as citrus and olive trees easier to grow, with fruits more likely to ripen and less likely to be lost to frost in winter. Sunflowers, while they already grow here, could also thrive in the new conditions.

    There will be a shift in the best types of decorative plants for gardens, with those needing lots of water, such as hydrangeas, delphiniums and gentians, becoming difficult to grow. We could look to the Mediterranean for inspiration, and choose shrubs such as thyme and lavender, or climbers like passion flowers, that need less water. It is also possible to grow a drought-tolerant garden with plants that are native to Britain, such as species of Geranium and Sedum. Coastal plants such as sea kale and sea holly that grow in harsh, rocky conditions can also make great garden plants in a drier climate.

    Sea holly doesn’t mind our changing climate as much as other garden plants.
    olko1975/Shutterstock

    Finally, the way we garden will need to change. Setting up water storage systems, from simple water butts to larger, more complex systems that could include grey water harvesting (used but clean water from baths and washing up) or underground water storage, will help gardeners to make the most of storms by storing the rainwater for use during droughts. You can set up a dispersion system to recycle lightly used household water, such as from a dishwasher or shower.

    Soil health is important too, as soils with more organic matter are better at holding water. Composting food waste to add to soil would be a great way of helping to increase the organic content and make watering more efficient. This has the added value of avoiding peat composts. Peat comes from wetlands and it will eventually run out. Peat harvesting also releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change.

    The next few decades will be challenging for gardeners. Britain will probably experience an increase in prolonged droughts and other extreme weather, as well as overall warming caused by climate change. Our gardens may cover a small proportion of land in the UK. But we can use them to experiment and develop sustainable ways of existing, growing not just new plants but also hope in the face of adversity.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Adele Julier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As climate change hits, what might the British garden of the future look like? – https://theconversation.com/as-climate-change-hits-what-might-the-british-garden-of-the-future-look-like-261608

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Windrush scandal: those left to apply for compensation without legal help missed out on tens of thousands of pounds

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jo Wilding, Lecturer in law, University of Sussex

    The Windrush scandal has been one of the biggest miscarriages of justice in Britain, affecting tens of thousands of people. The government set up a scheme in 2019 to award compensation to those who had been wronged by racist immigration legislation over decades, left unable to prove their immigration status.

    But in a new report, I have found that how much victims receive through the scheme has little to do with how they were wronged, and more to do with whether they can access a lawyer. Those who applied without legal support were offered tens of thousands of pounds less than when they appealed with legal representation.

    The research, produced with law reform charity Justice and Dechert LLP’s pro bono team, provides empirical evidence of precisely what lawyers do that makes a difference.

    Our research participants, who were claiming compensation over the Windrush scandal were offered, on average, £11,000 when applying to the scheme without a lawyer. But when applying for review with legal representation, the award was more than £83,000. One of our participants was refused any compensation when he applied alone, but eventually received £295,000 with the help of a lawyer.

    Why lawyers are needed

    We conducted an in-depth review of ten files where a claimant first applied for compensation without a lawyer, received a refusal or a low offer of compensation, and then applied with a lawyer for review of that decision.

    We reviewed another seven files from people who could never have claimed alone, because of street homelessness, dementia or serious health conditions.

    The team interviewed each lawyer and (where possible) the claimant, to identify exactly what a lawyer does that makes a difference.

    The Home Office insists lawyers are unnecessary because the scheme’s own caseworkers will help find evidence. But our findings suggest serious failings in those efforts. One of the main contributions of lawyers was expertise in finding decades-old evidence and demonstrating how it meets the standard of proof for the Windrush compensation scheme.

    One of our claimants applied for compensation for having been refused housing assistance (leaving her homeless) based on a misunderstanding of her immigration status. The Home Office caseworkers emailed her local council and asked whether there was a record of her being refused housing assistance 20 years earlier. The council replied that there was not. The caseworker treated that as evidence that she had never made an application.

    When a lawyer got involved, he asked the council to confirm how long they kept housing application records. The answer was 12 years, so there was never any prospect of evidence existing from 20 years ago. The lawyer then managed to track down her housing file with the housing solicitors who represented her.

    Lawyers knew how to request files from public bodies, understood the references to statutes in those files and, most importantly, were able to spot when key documents were missing.

    The lawyers in the cases we reviewed took detailed witness statements from claimants. Those made by claimants alone averaged 1.5 pages, whereas those made by lawyers were at least 15 pages, containing far more relevant detail showing how the claimant met the scheme criteria.

    Lawyers acted as a “buffer” between claimant and Home Office. Claimants told our research team that they felt the Home Office spoke to them with more respect once they had a lawyer. Often, claimants were ready to give up and accept the refusal because they were exhausted and frustrated with fighting the Home Office.

    The Windrush scandal has affected tens of thousands of people.
    James Ivor Wadlow/Shutterstock

    The findings are consistent with other peer-reviewed research exploring what lawyers or representatives add to cases in the family courts and the tribunals: a 15%-18% “representation premium” in chances of success. In some cases, this can be achieved through pre-hearing advice.

    All of our participants had a lawyer either through Law Centres funded by a charity, a university law clinic, or private law firms doing the work pro bono. Some firms also do the work on a no-win-no-fee basis, typically taking 25%-30% of the claimant’s damages but on occasion up to 67%. Given that it takes 32-103 hours to prepare the case, the lawyer’s fee may still underrepresent the work they did.

    Compensation schemes and legal support

    Recent reports have revealed serious problems with the compensation schemes for both the Post Office and the infected blood scandals. The chairs of the respective public inquiries, Sir Wyn Williams and Sir Brian Langstaff, criticised gaps in the provision of access to legal advice and recommended funded legal advice for all claimants.

    The Post Office Horizon IT scandal has four compensation schemes for different categories of victim. In each, claimants can choose between a fixed payment (£75,000) or an individual assessment of loss. In three of those schemes, funded legal advice is available to help claimants choose between those options. In the Horizon Shortfall Scheme, though, it is not available unless and until they reject the fixed payment and opt for individual assessment.

    The infected blood compensation scheme includes funded legal representation for “core” route claimants – those directly affected. But the inquiry report says it should also be available for claims by affected family members.

    Only the Windrush scheme has no provision at all for funded legal representation at any stage. All representation is either a matter of charity, or paid for from the damages, which may leave very little for the claimant.

    Yet the Windrush scheme is arguably the most complicated, with a 44-page claim form compared with just eight for the Horizon Shortfall Scheme. The infected blood claim form is largely completed by medical personnel. The Windrush scheme has complex eligibility requirements compared with the other schemes, and often demands an immigration lawyer’s expertise.

    As our research found, lawyers were able to advise Windrush claimants on whether the offer of compensation was fair or whether they should apply for review. Our empirical evidence, along with the reports, suggest all compensation schemes involving state harm to citizens should include free legal representation for claimants.

    In response to the report, a Home Office spokesperson told the Guardian: “Earlier this year, we launched a £1.5m advocacy support fund to provide dedicated help from trusted community organisations when victims are applying for compensation. However, we recognise there is more to be done, which is why ministers are continuing to engage with community groups on improvements to the compensation scheme, and will ask the new Windrush commissioner to recommend any further changes they believe are required.”

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Jo Wilding does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Windrush scandal: those left to apply for compensation without legal help missed out on tens of thousands of pounds – https://theconversation.com/windrush-scandal-those-left-to-apply-for-compensation-without-legal-help-missed-out-on-tens-of-thousands-of-pounds-261046

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: The dirty truth about what’s in your socks: bacteria, fungi and whatever lives between your toes

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Primrose Freestone, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Microbiology, University of Leicester

    Marko Aliaksandr/Shutterstock

    Your feet are microbial hotspots. The area between your toes is packed with sweat glands, and when we wrap our feet in socks and shoes, we trap that moisture in a warm, humid cocoon that’s ideal for microbial growth. In fact, your feet may be home to a miniature rainforest of bacteria and fungi, with anywhere from 100 to 10 million microbial cells per square centimetre of skin surface.

    Not only do feet host a huge variety of microorganisms – up to 1,000 different species per person – but they also have a wider range of fungal species than any other part of the body. That means your feet aren’t just sweaty or smelly – they’re genuinely biodiverse.

    Because your feet are microbe-rich, your socks become prime real estate for these same bacteria and fungi. Studies show that socks harbour both harmless skin residents, like coagulase-negative staphylococci, and potentially dangerous pathogens, including Aspergillus, Staphylococcus, Candida, Histoplasma and Cryptococcus. These microbes thrive in the warm, moist spaces between your toes, feeding on sweat and dead skin cells.

    Their byproducts, such as volatile fatty acids and sulphur compounds, are what give sweaty feet, socks and shoes that notorious odour. It’s not the sweat itself that smells, but the microbial metabolism of that sweat. Perhaps unsurprisingly, smelly feet are so common the NHS has dedicated pages of advice on the issue.

    The sock microbiome isn’t just influenced by your feet – it also reflects your environment. Socks pick up microbes from every surface you walk on, including household floors, gym mats, locker rooms and even your garden. They act as microbial sponges, collecting bacteria and fungi from soil, water, pet hair and dander, and the general dust of everyday life. In one study, socks worn for just 12 hours had the highest bacterial and fungal counts of any clothing item tested.

    And those microbes don’t stay put. Anything living in your socks can transfer to your shoes, your floors, your bedding – and even your skin. In a hospital study, slipper socks worn by patients were found to carry floor microbes, including antibiotic-resistant pathogens, into hospital beds. It’s a reminder that foot hygiene isn’t just a personal issue – it can have broader implications for infection control and public health.

    Super-spreaders

    Socks can also play a key role in spreading fungal infections like Tinea pedis (better known as athlete’s foot), a highly contagious condition that primarily affects the toes but can spread to the heels, hands, or even the groin. The infection is caused by dermatophyte fungi, which love warm, damp environments – exactly the kind you find in sweaty socks and tight shoes.

    To prevent this, experts recommend avoiding walking barefoot in shared spaces like gyms and pools, not sharing socks, towels, or shoes, and practising good foot hygiene, which includes washing and drying thoroughly between the toes. Topical antifungal treatments are usually effective, but prevention is key.

    It’s also important to note that socks can retain fungal spores even after washing. So if you’ve had athlete’s foot, wearing the same pair again – even if it looks clean – could trigger reinfection.

    The safest approach is to wear fresh socks daily and allow your shoes to dry out completely between wears. Choose breathable fabrics and avoid footwear that traps heat or causes excessive sweating.

    How to wash your socks properly

    Most laundry advice focuses on preserving fabric, colour and shape – but when it comes to socks, hygiene matters more. Studies show that washing at typical domestic temperatures (30–40°C) may not be sufficient to kill bacteria and fungi. In fact, under-cleaned socks can act as infection vectors, especially in households with vulnerable people.

    To properly sanitise your socks:

    • turn them inside out before washing to expose the inner surface where most microbes accumulate

    • use an enzyme-based detergent, which helps break down sweat and skin debris

    • wash at 60°C when possible, as the higher temperature helps detach and kill microbes

    • steam iron your socks if you need to wash at lower temperatures – heat from ironing can destroy residual spores.

    Cotton socks tend to tolerate higher temperatures better than synthetic blends, making them a better option for those prone to fungal infections. Drying socks in direct sunlight can also help: UV light has known antimicrobial effects.

    The forensic power of sock microbiomes

    Your socks might say more about you than you realise. In a US murder investigation, forensic scientists used soil bacteria found on a suspect’s socks to link them to the burial site of a victim.

    The microbial profile of the socks closely matched that of the crime scene – suggesting the socks had picked up and preserved location-specific soil microbes. This emerging field of forensic microbiology shows how microbial signatures can offer valuable clues in legal contexts.

    It’s a reminder that the ecosystems we carry on our bodies – and in our clothing – are not only complex and revealing but also surprisingly durable. Whether it’s helping to solve crimes or fuelling a fungal outbreak, your socks are far more biologically active than they appear.

    So next time you peel off a sweaty pair at the end of the day, spare a thought for the microscopic universe you’ve been walking around in. And maybe, just maybe, opt for that 60-degree wash.

    Primrose Freestone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The dirty truth about what’s in your socks: bacteria, fungi and whatever lives between your toes – https://theconversation.com/the-dirty-truth-about-whats-in-your-socks-bacteria-fungi-and-whatever-lives-between-your-toes-261580

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: People smugglers adapt to attempts to shut them down – financial sanctions won’t stop the boats

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David Suber, Departmental Lecturer in Criminology, University of Oxford

    In the latest attempt to crack down on irregular migration, the UK government has announced a raft of international sanctions against people smugglers. The sanctions will use asset freezes, travel bans and other financial restrictions to go after businesses and individuals thought to be facilitating smuggling operations.

    The government has committed to treating irregular migration as a national security threat, to be tackled with tools drawn from the counter-terrorism playbook. But, given the supply and demand forces that drive the smuggling industry, sanctions may not be effective.

    Smuggling is, essentially, a service industry. Opportunistic entrepreneurs charge migrants a fee to enable them to cross borders they wouldn’t otherwise be able to.

    These operations rely on wide networks: suppliers of dinghies and vehicles, informal money transfer brokers, local guides skilled at avoiding detection. While the routes and logistics vary across regions, empirical research consistently shows that smuggling is usually low-skill and fragmented. It’s rarely the domain of organised, mafia-style cartels.

    This regime of sanctions and asset freezes adds a new tactic to a familiar policy toolbox. Previous Conservative governments and EU countries have treated smuggling as a form of organised crime that can only be defeated through security responses. They’ve invested in surveillance, border walls and policing at home and internationally. Evidence suggests this approach is not only ineffective – it can backfire.

    Why sanctions may miss the target

    Smugglers and migrants alike operate in highly hostile environments. Evading detection and minimising risk is essential. This has made migrant smuggling particularly adaptable to criminal justice responses.

    Take money transfers between migrants and smugglers. Smuggling fees are often handled through the informal “hawala” money transfer system. A migrant deposits funds with a broker in the departure country, who holds the money and issues a code. Only once the migrant has safely arrived at their destination is the code released to a second broker, who then pays the smuggler. Debts between hawala brokers are settled when future operations move money in the opposite direction.

    Hawala money transfers are legal in most countries. But as no funds cross borders directly, this type of informal banking lends itself well to transactions that are anonymous and untraceable. The UK’s new sanctions target hawala brokers involved in handling payments between smugglers and their clients. But, in the same way that the structures of smuggling groups have evolved and adapted in response to police or border enforcement, so will their systems to move money safely.

    Follow the money: the new sanctions take aim at the business of smuggling.
    Andrzej Rostek/Shutterstock

    On heavily policed borders such as those in the Balkans, small-scale smugglers, often migrants themselves, have formed more coordinated groups bonded by ethnicity or language. Many of the groups listed in the UK sanctions, such as the Kazawi and Tatwani groups, have been on Interpol’s radar for years.

    Even when key figures are arrested, these groups have demonstrated the ability to disband and regroup on a different border. Sometimes they go quiet while developing new strategies, only to resurface in the same areas, driven by unchanged demand in smuggling services. Hawala brokers hit by the new sanction regime are likely to close and restart operations under different names.

    How effective can UK sanctions be if the targets and their assets are not in the UK, and if their operations can quickly shift across borders and names? Unless other countries follow suit and enforce similar measures, these sanctions may amount to little more than politically symbolic.

    Supply and demand

    So long as migration policy focuses almost exclusively on “smashing the gangs” and targeting the supply side of irregular migration, smugglers and other entrepreneurs involved in facilitating it are likely to reinvent themselves and find new, more precarious ways to circumvent border restrictions.

    Unless implemented internationally, UK sanctions will do little to change this. But international counter-smuggling responses are highly dependant on the specific circumstances faced by the states involved.

    In Italy, right and left-leaning governments have pursued an anti-mafia approach to smuggling for years, with limited results. Earlier this year, Italian authorities arrested suspected trafficker Osama Elmasry Njeem, following a warrant by the International Criminal Court on charges of murder, rape and torture.

    They then released him and repatriated him to Libya, sparking a row with the ICC. Although Italy has made deals with with the Libyan government in Tripoli to stop irregular migrant boats, it appears there were concerns that his arrest could strain relations with Libyan counterparts and trigger a surge in boat arrivals from North Africa. This situation highlights the challenges that can arise with such tactics.

    The idea that cracking down on smugglers, through sanctions or criminal justice responses, will deter people from seeking their services is not supported by evidence. If anything, it increases the risks migrants must take, making journeys more dangerous but no less likely. Migration flows to Europe rise and fall in patterns driven far more by global instability and lack of legal alternatives than by changes in law enforcement.

    Including smugglers in a sanctions regime may create headlines, but it misses the bigger point: people smuggling exists because people need to move. It is a demand-led phenomenon, and it is the demand side – why people turn to smugglers in the first place – that remains largely unaddressed.

    To reduce the power and appeal of smugglers, governments need to open safe, legal pathways for migration. This would reduce reliance on illicit networks, protect vulnerable people and restore order to a system that is politically defined by routine crises.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    David Suber received funding from the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council for his PhD in 2020-2024.

    – ref. People smugglers adapt to attempts to shut them down – financial sanctions won’t stop the boats – https://theconversation.com/people-smugglers-adapt-to-attempts-to-shut-them-down-financial-sanctions-wont-stop-the-boats-261864

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Gradual v sudden collapse: what magnets teach us about climate tipping points

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Dearing, Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Southampton

    Andrey VP / shutterstock

    Some of Earth’s largest climate systems may collapse not with a bang, but with a whimper. Surprisingly, experiments with magnets are helping us understand how.

    We now widely accept that greenhouse gases and the way we use natural resources are putting enormous stress on the world’s climate and ecosystems. It’s also well known that even small increases in stress can push Earth systems, like rainforests, ice sheets or ocean currents, past tipping points, leading to major and often irreversible changes.

    But there’s a lot we still don’t know about tipping points. When might they happen? What will they look like? And what should we do about them?

    Some local tipping points have already been reached. For example, many lakes have abruptly shifted in the past few decades from clear water to slimy, algae-choked pools, usually in response to fertilisers running off nearby farmland.

    Smaller systems, like this pond, can very suddenly shift from one state to another.
    Janet J / shutterstock

    For larger systems, like the entire Amazon forest or the West Antarctic ice sheet, the longer timescales involved mean direct observation – and certainly experiments – are impossible.

    But we can look for clues elsewhere. In fact, we can now learn about tipping points from something much smaller and far more controllable: magnets.

    Magnets have tipping points too

    In our recent research, we used magnetic materials to mimic the behaviour of an ecosystem stressed by global warming. Just like Earth’s climate systems, magnets can tip from one stable state to another – flipping from positive to negative – when pushed hard enough.

    We found that magnets don’t all flip the same way. Some shift abruptly – a characteristic of many hard materials. Others shift smoothly and more easily – as commonly found with soft magnets.

    Whether a magnet collapses abruptly or smoothly is determined by its structure. As a general rule, hard materials are simple structures that absorb stress up to a point and then suddenly flip – much like a small, well-mixed lake that stays clear until one day, when enough fertiliser has leaked in, it turns green and slimy almost overnight.

    Soft magnets, on the other hand, are more complex inside. Different parts respond to stress at different rates. This is similar to a large forest, where some species can handle rising temperatures but others are less resilient.

    The result is a reorganisation. Some species die out, others take over, and the whole system gradually transitions into a different type of forest – or even into a new ecosystem like a grassland.

    Some Earth systems are more prone to abrupt collapse.
    Steve Allen / shutterstock

    The same principles may apply beyond biology. Ocean currents and ice sheets with their many varied and moving parts might also behave like soft magnets, reorganising gradually rather than collapsing in one sudden movement.

    Softer systems are easier to flip back

    Our experiments with magnets uncovered something else with implications for Earth’s climate systems and their tipping points.

    The softer a system is, the easier it is to reverse the change – but only if you act before the stress builds up. If the pressure has built up too much, even soft systems start behaving like hard ones, flipping suddenly and dramatically.

    We also found that what may look like a soft and complex system – a whole rainforest or ice sheet, for instance – can be made up of lots of smaller hard elements. Each of these elements has its own sensitivity to a specific level of stress. Zoom in far enough, and you’ll see many more abrupt tipping points at the level of a single lake or patch of trees.

    This matters because the speed of change is just as important as the amount. In magnets, the faster we applied stress, the more likely they were to tip suddenly. Climate systems seem to behave the same way: the faster we heat the world, the greater the risk of sudden collapse.

    If we see these big complex systems slowly shifting and think there’s still time to act – we may be wrong. Like the proverbial frogs in boiling water, we may not notice we have passed the point of no return until it is too late.

    This is why we must watch closely, especially at the local level, for any warning signs. A patch of wetland drying out or a small tract of forest dying back. These might seem like small changes, but they may signal a much larger decline is already underway.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    John Dearing is a member of the Green Party of England and Wales.

    Roy Thompson and Simon Willcock do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Gradual v sudden collapse: what magnets teach us about climate tipping points – https://theconversation.com/gradual-v-sudden-collapse-what-magnets-teach-us-about-climate-tipping-points-258606

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How the UK’s cold weather payments need to change to help prevent people freezing in winter

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Thomas Longden, Senior Researcher, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University

    DimaBerlin/Shutterstock

    The UK government recently expanded the warm home discount by removing restrictions that had previously excluded many people who can’t always afford to heat their homes. Now, the payment of £150 will be received by 2.7 million more households than last winter.

    The UK government has also reversed its decision to limit winter fuel payments to only the poorest pensioners. This could benefit up to 9 million people.

    The UK government has two other mechanisms for reducing heating costs over winter. The warm home discount and winter fuel payment are both one-off payments that help people pay their heating bills. The cold weather payment aims to support people during spells of very cold weather.

    Recipients of specific means-tested benefits in England, Wales and Northern Ireland automatically receive £25 after cold weather occurs in their region. Another policy applies in Scotland, where some people get a single winter heating payment.

    While these changes to the winter fuel payment and warm home discount are welcome, the cold weather payment has long been seen as an outdated, old-fashioned scheme in need of change. For example, it is paid after cold weather happens. Our research indicates that it can be improved by changing this.

    The wide use of smart meters means that researchers like us can now produce data-driven studies that improve our understanding of energy use and expenditure during cold weather. Our recent studies of prepayment meter customers’ energy use indicate ways to improve the cold weather payments.

    Analysis of electricity and gas smart-meter data from 11,500 Utilita Energy prepayment customers showed that 63% of households self-disconnected from energy supply at least once a year. In this study, published in Energy Research & Social Science, we found that more homes self-disconnected from gas during cold periods than at other times. There was no evidence to show that the cold weather payment as presently designed reduced this risk.

    Also using smart meter data from energy company Utilita Energy, a recent study published in the journal Energy Economics shows that prepayment gas customers in regions with high fuel poverty tend to struggle at temperatures below −4°C. Below this temperature, prepayment gas customers need to top up more often and with higher amounts. People using prepayment tend to top-up their credit in advance of cold weather.

    Cold weather payments could be sent directly to customers with smart meters.
    Daisy Daisy/Shutterstock

    In colder weather, more people use emergency credit and disconnect from power more often. Emergency credit is provided by the utility as a short-term loan. Self-disconnections occur when the household has no credit left and they have no energy supply.

    The government’s payment is triggered when the average temperature falls below 0°C for seven consecutive days. As this metric is not reported by news media or meteorology services, it’s hard to know when the cold weather payment will be received. The easiest way to find out if a payment will be made, after cold weather, requires people to enter their postcode at a Department for Work and Pensions website.

    If people are unsure if severe weather is forecast, they may not increase their top-up in advance. They may, however, self-ration or limit energy use to save money.

    The cold weather payment is only paid once even when there are multiple periods of cold. This “overlap penalty” severely affects those living in northern England and particularly Yorkshire, which is a colder region where cold weather spells are more common.

    Cause for reform

    The payment should be made in advance of cold weather, and utility companies could pay it directly to customers who have smart meters. Credits could be applied for those using other types of meters. This is likely to reduce self-disconnections and self-rationing during very cold nights.

    Payments should be triggered by the minimum night-time temperature. The temperature measure used at present is confusing and the money is not paid until up to two weeks after extremely cold weather, which is problematic for those on tight budgets.

    To better match the support needed during cold weather, the amount paid should be increased to £10 a day for every day that minimum temperatures are forecast to be below −4°C. This would improve energy security for people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    A policy will only be effective when it is clearly communicated and understood by those it applies to. To prevent self-rationing, people need to know that payment support has arrived, otherwise they may hesitate to turn up the heating on the coldest days of winter, with all the risks that involves.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Thomas Longden has recently received funding from Energy Consumers Australia and Original Power – a community-focused, Aboriginal organisation. He is a member of the ACT Climate Change Council and the NSW branch of the Economic Society of Australia.

    Brenda Boardman is affiliated in the UK with the End Fuel Poverty Coalition and the Labour Party. Her research on pre-payment meter households was co-funded by Utilita Giving.

    Tina Fawcett currently receives funding from UKRI. Her research on pre-payment meter households was co-funded by Utilita Giving.

    – ref. How the UK’s cold weather payments need to change to help prevent people freezing in winter – https://theconversation.com/how-the-uks-cold-weather-payments-need-to-change-to-help-prevent-people-freezing-in-winter-259339

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Many tongues, one people: the debate over linguistic diversity in India

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sudhansu Bala Das, Postdoctoral researcher in Linguistics, University of Galway

    India is a home to numerous ancient and linguistically rich languages across its many regions. In a single home, a young person may speak, for example, Odia (the language spoken in the eastern state of Odisha) with their grandparents, switch to English for homework, and enjoy listening to Hindi songs on YouTube.

    Far from being confusing, this coexistence is necessary and natural. It’s a hallmark of a nation where language diversity is embraced as a strength rather than being a barrier to be overcome.

    India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, reflected this attitude in February this year when he remarked that there had “never been any animosity among Indian languages”. He was speaking at a major literary conference in the state of Maharashtra, where the vast majority of people, 84 million out of a population of 112 million, speak Marathi as a first language with Hindi a distant second.

    “[Indian languages] have always influenced and enriched each other, he said. “It is our social responsibility to distance ourselves from such misconceptions and embrace and enrich all languages.” His remarks reinforced a broader message: that linguistic diversity is not a barrier, but a shared cultural strength that binds India together.

    But language can also be a politically divisive issue in such a diverse country. And Modi and members of his government have been criticised for words and actions seen as trying to shape the use of Hindi, English and other languages within India. Because of the country’s linguistic complexity, the situation is always more complicated to navigate than it might first appear.

    India has a total of around 19,500 languages or dialects that are spoken as mother tongues, according to the 2011 census. Of those, 22 languages are recognised as official under the Indian constitution.

    The 2011 census found that 44% of Indians, about 528 million people, speak Hindi as their first language (meaning what is spoken at home). Similarly, around 57% of people use it as a second or third language.

    That means Hindi has a broad presence across regions, but it exists alongside many other languages with equal value, including Marathi, Bengali (97 million), Telugu (81 million), Tamil (69 million) and Meitei (1.8 million).

    First, second and third language speakers in India, according to the 2011 census.
    2011 Indian census, CC BY-NC-SA

    At the national level, India has two official languages: Hindi and English. Hindi is used for communication within the central government, while English is widely used in legal, administrative and international affairs. Each state can choose its own official language(s) for state-level governance. For example, Tamil Nadu uses Tamil, Maharashtra uses Marathi, and so on.

    But in daily life, people often switch between languages depending on where they are and who they are speaking to, at home, at work, or in public spaces. According to the 2011 census, nearly one in four Indians said they could speak at least two languages, and over 7% said they could speak three.

    India introduced a three-language formula in education the 1960s. This policy guideline encouraged students to learn three languages: their regional mother tongue, Hindi (if it is not already their first language) and English. This was intended to produce a flexible and inclusive approach across different states.

    In 2020, the Modi government introduced a new national education policy that gave states more flexibility to pick which two Indian languages should be taught alongside English, but made the recommendation compulsory in all states. This has led to a backlash in several states because some fear it effectively introduces Hindi teaching by the backdoor and will dilute the use of other languages.

    There is also considerable debate in India about the role of English, which about 10.6% of Indians speak to some degree but some believe is a relic of colonial rule. Modi himself has suggested this is the case and has taken action to reduce the official use of English, for example in medical schools.

    However, he has also acknowledged the importance of English, particularly in global communication, and spoken of the value all Indian languages bring to the country’s unity and progress. “It is our duty to embrace all languages,” he told the audience in Maharashtra, adding that Indian languages, including English, “have always enriched each other and formed the foundation of our unity”.

    Many see the language as a link between the many linguistic communities of India. Others see it is a tool for social mobility, especially for lower castes. Some have even accused the government of wanting to discourage English in order to maintain social privileges and promote the dominance of Hindi.

    On the other hand, the 2020 national education policy mandates the teaching of English. It recommends bilingual textbooks in English and local languages, and that English should be taught “wherever possible” alongside mother tongues in primary education.

    The government is also taking steps to make the digital world more inclusive to people, whatever their language. Launched by Modi in 2022, the Bhashini project is a national AI initiative supporting speech-to-text, real-time translation and digital accessibility in all 22 official languages. This aims to make digital platforms and public services more inclusive, especially for rural and remote communities.

    As poet and Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore once wrote: “If God had so wished, he would have made all Indians speak with one language … the unity of India has been and shall always be a unity in diversity.”

    In India, children today grow up speaking their mother tongue, with many learning Hindi to communicate across regions, and gaining English skills for global connections. India’s future does not depend on choosing one language over another, but on enabling them to flourish side by side.

    There’s a Chinese proverb: “To learn a language is to have one more window from which to look at the world.” With thousands of such windows, India’s future is rooted in both unity and diversity.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Sudhansu Bala Das does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Many tongues, one people: the debate over linguistic diversity in India – https://theconversation.com/many-tongues-one-people-the-debate-over-linguistic-diversity-in-india-261308

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Hormone-free male contraceptive pill passes first safety test

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Susan Walker, Associate Professor in Contraception, Reproductive and Sexual Health, Anglia Ruskin University

    The male contraceptive pill just completed phase 1 trials. Pixel-Shot/ Shutterstock

    A potential new male contraceptive drug has just undergone its first tests in human volunteers. The results give the first indication that the drug, which does not use artificial hormones or affect testosterone production by the testes, may be safe in humans.

    While previous attempts have been made to develop a male contraceptive in the past, these largely failed to pass clinical trials due to their unacceptable side-effects. But this newest contraceptive works differently from past attempts, which means it doesn’t require surgery and is much less likely to cause hormonal side-effects – problems that have helped stop previous attempts from reaching the market.

    The study showed the drug was well tolerated in a small group of healthy young men and did not appear to cause any serious side-effects at the doses used. Further research will be needed to demonstrate precisely how effective it is as a contraceptive.

    The new method uses a specially-designed chemical known as YCT-529 to target a specific cell receptor in the testes called retinoic acid receptor–alpha.

    Similar, but less specific compounds, had been shown to reduce sperm production in humans previously. But these compounds also had unwanted side-effects – such as feeling ill when drinking alcohol, altering salt levels in the bloodstream and not being fully reversible in all men. This made them unsuitable for contraceptive use.

    But in animal studies, YCT-529 was shown to produce fully reversible, temporary infertility without any significant side-effects. A study in mice also found that those who went on to father babies after stopping the drug produce normal, healthy offspring.

    Based on these results, the drug then entered into phase one trials in humans. This is the first stage of human testing, where a small group of healthy volunteers are recruited to test safety, tolerability and possible side-effects.

    This small trial involved 16 male volunteers who took the drug twice at increasing doses – either 10mg to 30mg or 90mg to 180mg. Some men took placebo pills for comparison.

    The participants were monitored for 15 days for any effects on normal hormone levels, inflammation (signs of cell damage), kidney and liver function, abnormal heart rhythms, sexual desire and mood.

    No changes were detected in the natural hormones in the body. There were also no lasting effects on liver and kidney function and no signs of cell damage. No dangerous abnormalities of heart rhythm were detected, and the participants reported no changes in mood or sexual desire.

    However, participants only took two doses of the drug and were only followed up for 15 days. The authors say in the paper that a larger phase two trial is underway which will test the drug in a greater number of men.

    This will then be followed by phase three trials in hundreds of men where the effectiveness, reversibility and side-effects of longer term use of the drug will be assessed. These are the hurdles which have prevented other approaches from being made widely available.

    Why past male contraceptives have failed

    At present there are no commercially available contraceptive methods for men that are not only safe and effective at preventing pregnancy, but which also allow sperm production to be turned off and on again at will.

    While condoms have few side-effects and are used at will, they have a relatively high failure rate (resulting in pregnancy around 12%-18% of the time with typical use).

    A vasectomy, which severs the tube connecting the sperm-producing testes to the rest of the male reproductive organs, is very effective (more than 99%) and safe – but it’s not easily reversible and requires a minor operation.

    There have been previous attempts (and some ongoing) at producing a reversible method of contraception for men. Some have proven to be effective at stopping sperm production or preventing sperm from exiting the male reproductive tract. However, they haven’t moved to the stage of commercial production, often because of unwanted side-effects.

    If the pill proves to be effective in phase 3 trials, it would give men another contraceptive option.
    TanyaJoy/ Shutterstock

    Most of these attempts used one of two main approaches to prevent pregnancy.

    One method involves injecting a substance into the vas deferens (a tube leading from the testes to the urethra). This substance filters out and damages sperm during ejaculation. This substance can be flushed out through a minor procedure if the man wishes to become fertile again.

    The drawback of this method is that it requires a minor surgical procedure (an injection into the scrotum) and that the man has to have a further procedure to reverse its effects.

    The second route involves stopping sperm production altogether by lowering the hormones that cause sperm to be made in the testes.

    The most successful of these trials used an injectable progestogen (a synthetic version of the sex hormone progesterone). This injectable signalled the brain to stop producing follicular stimulating hormone (FSH) and lutenising hormone (LH), which normally signal the testes to produce sperm and testosterone.

    However, suppressing LH also turned off the testosterone in the testes that is needed for normal, healthy function in men. To counteract the loss of testosterone, this contraceptive approach required men to take an “add back” testosterone – either as a tablet or a gel applied to the skin.

    But a major trial testing this method was stopped early because of the hormonal side-effects participants experienced, including mood swings, acne and changes to sex drive.

    There’s a long way to go before the new drug can be considered suitable for use as a male contraceptive. But this new approach shows a lot of promise because it avoids upsetting hormonal balance and can be taken orally – rather than requiring an invasive procedure.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Susan Walker has previously received funding from Bayer PLC who manufacture contraceptive devices.

    – ref. Hormone-free male contraceptive pill passes first safety test – https://theconversation.com/hormone-free-male-contraceptive-pill-passes-first-safety-test-262083

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Kemi Badenoch says she wants to be Britain’s Javier Milei – but is the Argentinian president a model to follow?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sam Halvorsen, Reader in Human Geography, Queen Mary University of London

    When UK Conservative party head Kemi Badenoch recently declared that she aspires to be Britain’s Milei, she aligned herself with one of the world’s most radical and controversial leaders.

    Javier Milei, Argentina’s self-styled “anarcho-capitalist” president, has gained global notoriety since his election in December 2023 for wielding a chainsaw at rallies, promising to destroy the so-called “political caste” and launching a scorched-earth economic reform programme.

    But what has Milei actually achieved since entering office? And should Britain really be looking to his administration for inspiration?

    Milei swept to power on a wave of anti-establishment anger. Styling himself as an outsider economist rallying against the ruling caste, he promised to slash state spending and replace Argentina’s peso with the more stable US dollar. He also pledged to eliminate entire government ministries, including health, education and culture.

    His now-famous “chainsaw plan” proposed a dramatic restructuring of Argentina’s political and economic institutions, which he blamed for decades of stagnation and corruption. Backed by business elites and libertarian ideologues, Milei offered a vision of Argentina remade through radical individualism and state retrenchment.

    His campaign, which contained some clear populist tendencies, was built as much on spectacle as substance. It contained daily media outbursts, personal attacks and an anti-caste rhetoric designed to turn governance into performance.

    Inflation was central to Milei’s campaign. When he took office, annual inflation in Argentina stood at over 130%, one of the highest rates in the world. Milei promised to bring it under control by slashing the fiscal deficit and enforcing monetary discipline.

    Monthly inflation doubled in the first months of his administration, forcing millions of Argentinians further into poverty. But it has fallen below 50% since the middle of 2025, which has been held by the government as a success.

    However, the decrease in the inflation rate is the result of economic recession. While international markets have praised Milei’s fiscal orthodoxy, there is little sign of a growth rebound. Investment has stalled, consumption has plummeted and local industries are struggling amid cuts to public procurement.

    Consumption has shown signs of recovery in the last few months, but only in the high-income segment. This has deepened a dual reality where middle-class and working sectors cannot make ends meet. Instead of helping the Argentinian economy recover, high-income consumption also pushes the trade balance to deteriorate.

    Milei’s government has endeavoured to keep the Argentine peso strong. A strong currency has seen foreign investments paused and, despite ongoing capital controls, millions of US dollars leave the country with a surge in Argentinian tourism abroad. This trend is exactly the opposite of the most controversial of Milei’s promises: to adopt the dollar in Argentina.

    Given the critical level of the central bank’s foreign reserves, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the release of a US$4.7 billion (£3.5 billion) loan tranche in April 2024. It is expected to loan an extra US$2 billion before the 2025 mid-term elections in October.

    Squeezing Argentinian society

    Job losses have been extensive. Tens of thousands of public sector workers have been laid off, and many more have seen their salaries decimated by inflation. Entire agencies have been shut, from science and housing to the post office.

    Milei’s framing of public employees as part of a parasitic caste has helped him politically. It has reinforced his anti-establishment credentials and mobilised resentment among private sector workers and the self-employed. But it has further polarised an already fragmented Argentinian society.

    Unions and civil society organisations have mobilised in response, organising strikes and mass protests. These have been met in turn with crackdowns, the criminalisation of dissent and expanded police powers.

    Meanwhile, Congress has been sidelined. Milei’s critics warn of creeping authoritarianism as the president governs increasingly by decree, perhaps most notably by attempting to fill two vacancies of the Supreme Court in February.

    Environmental protection and foreign policy have also been reshaped by Milei’s radical agenda. The ministry of environment was among the agencies targeted for elimination. And Milei’s sweeping law of bases bill, which became law in 2024, included provisions to weaken environmental regulations and accelerate extractive industries such as lithium and oil.

    Milei dismisses environmental concerns as leftist distractions from economic freedom. This is a stance echoed in his foreign policy, which has seen Argentina pivot away from regional cooperation. He has snubbed neighbours like Brazil, withdrawn from the accession process to the Brics group of nations and has aligned himself more closely with the US, Israel and the global far right.

    He frequently rails against “global socialism”, and presents himself as a figurehead of a new anti-globalist movement. This posture appeals to his domestic base and international allies, but has further isolated Argentina diplomatically and eroded longstanding regional ties.

    If Badenoch wants to emulate Milei, it raises serious questions about the political and economic future she envisions for Britain. Argentina is currently living through a radical experiment in state destruction. Despite circumstantially winning praise from bond markets and libertarian circles, it has brought pain, polarisation and increasing levels of repression.

    For those looking beyond spectacle, Milei’s presidency offers not a blueprint for bold reform, but a cautionary tale about the dangers of governing by chainsaw.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kemi Badenoch says she wants to be Britain’s Javier Milei – but is the Argentinian president a model to follow? – https://theconversation.com/kemi-badenoch-says-she-wants-to-be-britains-javier-milei-but-is-the-argentinian-president-a-model-to-follow-261915

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Ancient India, Living Traditions: an earnest effort to show how the art of Hinduism, Buddhism and Jainism is sacred and personal

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ram Prasad, Fellow of the British Academy and Distinguished Professor in the Department Politics, Philosophy and Religion, University of Leicester

    The British Museum’s Ancient India, Living Traditions exhibition brings together exhibits on the sacred art of Hinduism, Buddhism and Jainism. It also encompasses the spread of the devotional art of these traditions to other parts of Asia.

    The exhibition speaks to religious identity and relationships. Buddhism and Jainism distinguish themselves from the vast surrounding traditions that together we call Hinduism; but they have close kinship with it in practices, beliefs and iconography. Museums that have presented sculptures in isolation have usually not attempted to narrate this complex history.

    Not all the items displayed, some going back 2,000 years, are of purely historical interest. There are representations of traditions that are continuously living in a way the gods of ancient Egypt or classical Europe are not.

    The most instantly recognisable example for visitors of such living ancient tradition is likely to be statues of the elephant-headed deity Ganesha. Visitors can see a rare and valuable 4th century sandstone Ganesha on show. They can also see a small bronze version of that ancient Ganesha that is like the kind you would find in people’s home and to which a quick prayer would be addressed every morning.

    The question of how to respect that sense of the sacred while still mounting an exhibition is a moral and aesthetic challenge that few museums (including in India) have started to address. It’s not uncommon to see such pieces wrenched from the reality of their continued practice and presented in secular art displays. Here, however, the curators have tried to make connections between “statues” on display and “icons” in temples and homes.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Finally, there’s the problematic history of the imperial museum and its need to reckon with its past. Most objects on display in this exhibition, and The British Museum more widely, have been presented with scarcely any acknowledgement of how they came to be acquired.

    The exhibition makes an earnest effort to tackle most of these issues.

    Ancient but not dead

    The spaces of the exhibition are structured to be respectful of the historical and contemporary sensitivities of Buddhism and Jainism. This is signalled through subtle changes of colour and the placement of translucent drapery, allowing for transitions between distinct Jain, Buddhist and Hindu displays.

    At the same time, conceptual and sensory commonalities are powerfully conveyed. The first space focuses on nature spirits and demi-deities that are shared across all the ancient traditions. The air is filled with the sound of south Asian birds and musical instruments. The explanatory labels draw attention to the percolation of iconographic features between traditions, for instance, those between the Buddha and the Jaina teachers, or the direct inclusion of the deity of learning (Sarasvati) in both Hindu and Jain worship.

    Also well presented is a final space on the spread of south Asian iconography to central, east and southeast Asia. This is a long story that needs its own telling, but can only be hinted at through some beautifully chosen figures.

    It’s the curators’ use of a community advisory panel of people who practice such traditions today that gives the information its sensitivity. Their inclusion in the exhibition’s production can be seen in a marked mindfulness that the content and symbols of these inert objects are alive and sacred to hundreds of millions.

    For example, one Ganesha from Java in Indonesia draws attention to different elements of his iconography. There is the trans-continentally stable depiction of his having a broken tusk (which, as Hindus will know, he is said to have broken off to write down the epic Mahabharata). But this Ganesha also holds a skull, which is unique to the Javanese version. The label gently points out that “various communities understood and worshipped him differently”.

    The combination of community engagement and creative presentation not only conveys a sense of respect for the traditions, but also elicits a respectful response from visitors. Those from within the tradition will note with satisfaction the description of a symbol or icon. Those from outside the traditions are invited to look at the exhibits with attention and care as they might in a cathedral.

    I saw a pair of young Indian Americans looking at a fossilised ammonite from Nepal that is taken as a symbolic representation of god for worshippers of Vishnu. They animatedly compared it to the one in their own diasporic home.

    Elsewhere in the exhibition, I caught an elderly English couple stood in wondering silence in front of a drum slab from the famous 1st century BC Amaravathi Buddhist site in south India. This slab was carved just before figural representations of the Buddha rapidly gained in popularity. Here, there are symbols associated with him, but the Buddha himself is represented by the empty seat from whence he has gone.

    How did it all get here?

    One potential interpretive danger lies in the emphasis on continuity between past objects and present realities. Hindus today from social backgrounds that did not have the privilege of reaching back to high sacred art might ask where they sit in the smoothed out historical narrative. More broadly, there is no acknowledgement of the complexity of Hindu identity and its formation across centuries, regions, social strata, languages and theologies.

    The weakest part of this exhibition’s generally innovative retelling is the faint-hearted way in which it obliquely acknowledges the dubious acquisition process of the British Museum. To say something was “collected” by a major general “while serving in the East India Company army” is hardly facing up to the question with which the exhibition boldly begins: “How did it get here?”

    This exhibition offers a powerful visual narrative of the multi-spiritual traditions of ancient India, mounted with sensitivity to their living communities today. Its immersive presentation is appealing, and the story it tells is respectful and innovative.

    The task of honest self-representation and difficult conversations on reparation remain. Within that larger imperative, Ancient India, Living Traditions is a step in the right direction. It is a direction towards addressing context, responsiveness and engagement that museums can no longer ignore.

    Ancient India, Living Traditions in on at The British Museum, London until October 19 2025

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Ram Prasad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ancient India, Living Traditions: an earnest effort to show how the art of Hinduism, Buddhism and Jainism is sacred and personal – https://theconversation.com/ancient-india-living-traditions-an-earnest-effort-to-show-how-the-art-of-hinduism-buddhism-and-jainism-is-sacred-and-personal-262163

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Modi’s visit to Ghana signals India’s broader Africa strategy. A researcher explains

    Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Veda Vaidyanathan, Associate, Harvard University Asia Center, Harvard Kennedy School

    Ghana has historically been an anchor of Indian enterprise and diplomacy on the African continent.

    New Delhi and Accra formalised ties in 1957. At the time, their partnership was grounded in shared anti-colonial ideals and a common vision for post-independence development. India offered counsel on building Ghana’s institutions, including its external intelligence agency. Meanwhile, Indian teachers, technicians, and traders regularly travelled to the west African country in search of opportunity.

    The July 2025 visit of the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, to Ghana – the first by an Indian leader in over three decades – came at a critical moment for the continent. As the global order shifts towards multi-polarity, countries like Ghana are navigating a complex landscape, which includes western donors scaling back commitments. This has opened space to deepen cooperation through pragmatic, interest-driven collaborations with longstanding partners like India. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Ghana’s President John Mahama captured the spirit of this global realignment, noting that

    as bridges are burning, new bridges are being formed.

    Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Modi’s visit offered an opportunity to both revive and recalibrate bilateral ties. The visit carried a strong economic and strategic orientation. Ghana positioned itself as a partner in areas where India holds comparative advantage, such as pharmaceuticals. Over 26% of Africa’s generic medicines are sourced from India. The Food and Drugs Authority’s (Ghana’s regulator of pharmaceutical standards) listing of foreign pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities is dominated by Indian firms.

    Defence cooperation was also on the agenda. Ghana is looking to India for training, equipment and broader security engagement in response to rising threats from the Sahel and coastal piracy.

    This emphasis on shared security interests is underscored by Ghana’s alignment with India on counter-terrorism. President Mahama for instance has condemned the Pahalgam terrorist attacks that occurred in April, 2025.

    Reviving economic ties

    Economic ties are at the heart of this renewed engagement between the two countries. Bilateral trade currently stands at around US$3 billion. Both leaders aim to double it to US$6 billion over the next five years. Currently, Ghana enjoys a trade surplus with India. This is mainly due to gold exports, which account for over 70% of its shipments. Cocoa, cashew nuts, and timber are also key exports, while imports from India include pharmaceuticals, machinery, vehicles, and various industrial goods.

    India has invested more than US$2 billion in Ghana. These investments span private capital, concessional finance and grants across 900 projects. India now ranks among Ghana’s top investors. Indian firms and state-backed institutions play a key role in critical infrastructure development. Landmark projects include the 97km standard gauge Tema-Mpakadan Railway Line and the Ghana-India Kofi Annan ICT Centre, a hub for innovation and research.

    In an earlier study, I documented the perspectives of Indian entrepreneurs in Ghana. The findings underscored the country’s appeal as a land of economic opportunity. In interviews, Indian businesses highlighted Ghana’s stable political environment. An expanding consumer base, and relatively transparent regulatory framework were also mentioned. Together, these factors continue to attract investor interest.

    This economic momentum likely paved the way to pursue a closer bilateral relationship, marked by the elevation to a ‘Comprehensive Partnership’.

    While delegates in the July visit addressed issues such as financial inclusion, healthcare and agriculture, the tangible outcomes were limited. Four memoranda of understanding were signed. They cover cooperation on traditional medicine, regulatory standards and cultural exchange. The creation of a joint commission to structure and advance bilateral collaboration across priority sectors was also signed.

    Moving forward, Ghana offers India an entry point into west Africa’s resource landscape. With reserves of gold, bauxite, manganese and lithium, Ghana is well positioned to contribute to India’s needs for critical minerals. President Mahama’s invitation for investment in mineral extraction and processing aligns with India’s National Critical Mineral Mission, New Delhi is looking for supply chains for its energy transition. It creates an opportunity for Indian mining companies to expand into African markets.



    Read more:
    The world is rushing to Africa to mine critical minerals like lithium – how the continent should deal with the demand

    Pragmatic diplomacy

    With nearly US$100 billion in trade, cumulative investments of nearly US$75 billion, and a 3.5 million strong diaspora, the broader contours of India’s Africa policy is increasingly pragmatic and issue based.

    New Delhi’s evolving relations with Accra reflects this. It comes as Ghana is making sweeping economic reforms domestically, particularly in fiscal management and debt restructuring.

    This ambitious “economic reboot” hinges on attracting private sector investment. In this context, the Indian diaspora, already deeply embedded in Ghana’s commercial networks, is well positioned to foster stronger economic ties.

    In his address to Ghana’s Parliament, The Indian Prime Minister spoke of development cooperation that is demand driven and focused on building local capacity and creating local opportunities. This approach “to not just invest, but empower”, signals India’s growing intent to anchor relationships in mutual agency, rather than dependency.

    Veda Vaidyanathan is Fellow, Foreign Policy and Security Studies, at a leading Indian think tank.

    – ref. Modi’s visit to Ghana signals India’s broader Africa strategy. A researcher explains – https://theconversation.com/modis-visit-to-ghana-signals-indias-broader-africa-strategy-a-researcher-explains-261187

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: 8 policies that would help fight poverty in South Africa’s economic hub Gauteng

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Adrino Mazenda, Senior Researcher, Associate Professor Economic Management Sciences, University of Pretoria

    Poverty goes beyond income. It often arises when health, education and opportunities fall short of meeting people’s needs.

    Individuals are classified as impoverished when they face deprivation in one-third or more of the indicators in a multidimensional poverty index. The index reflects the various influences on socioeconomic class. These include housing, sanitation, electricity, cooking fuel, nutrition and school attendance.

    The index is one of the most comprehensive measures of poverty. The fact that the multidimentional index captures multiple dimensions enables it to reflect overlapping disadvantages. And provides a fuller picture of well-being. Other monetary measures such as income aren’t as comprehensive.

    About 18% of the world’s population are poor by the definition of the multidimentional poverty index. Sub-Saharan Africa is especially affected, with a multidimensional poverty rate nearing 59%.

    In South Africa, it is at around 40%. This means it experiences four in 10 of the dimensions of poverty.

    The province of Gauteng is South Africa’s economic hub. Nevertheless it contains pockets of severe deprivation. About 4.6% of households are poor. In some wards up to 68% are severely deprived.

    We are social scientists with research histories in food systems and livelihoods, public policy and economics of human capital. We recently conducted a study focused on Gauteng. We wanted to determine what could enable poor and vulnerable households to move out of those categories.

    We used a modelling exercise that allowed us to isolate the most relevant factors for this transition.

    The study found six factors: education, age, income, working time, medical aid and being a recipient of a low income municipal support grant. We concluded from this that attending to these six variables was the foundation for upward mobility.

    Conversely, vulnerability to economic shocks, such as job loss or food insecurity, can trigger rapid downward mobility.

    Based on our findings we make eight policy recommendations. These include boosting education and skills training, better healthcare and affordable, reliable transport.

    Range of factors

    Multidimensional poverty intersects with socioeconomic class structures. It reinforces inequality by placing individuals into hierarchical groups. These range from the affluent and middle class to the transient, vulnerable, and chronically poor.

    These disparities shape access to resources, opportunities and upward mobility.

    Lower-class households differ from middle-class and affluent (non-poor) households across multiple dimensions. These differences include income stability, consumption patterns, access to services, asset ownership, social capital and vulnerability to shocks.

    In the light of this we adopted a multidimensional poverty approach to classify households. We used various dimensions and indicators of poverty to assess the extent of deprivation and associated poverty levels.

    We calculated the deprivation score and classified households into three levels: not poor, moderate poverty (vulnerable), and severe poverty (chronically poor).

    Working time had the strongest effect. Part- or full-time work greatly lowered odds of severe poverty (chronic poverty) and moderate poverty (transient poverty). Working time refers to the duration that a person is engaged in paid employment or work-related activities. This is usually between 35 and 45 hours per week for full-time employment. And fewer than 35 hours per week for part-time employment.

    Some factors only influenced certain groups. For severe poverty, transport access, household health, food parcel reliance, household size, and skipping meals were significant. For moderate poverty, gender, food parcel reliance and skipping meals mattered. And for the vulnerable non-poor (middle class), distance from public transport was the only additional factor.

    Social grants and being part of the black population group showed little influence. Transitions and the ability to transcend poverty classes were driven mainly by direct socio-economic factors.

    These dynamics underscore the precariousness of low-income households. They also highlight the importance of targeted interventions to break cycles of poverty.

    Higher education, stable income and access to full-time work, drastically reduce the odds of remaining in severe or moderate poverty or being vulnerable. Medical aid access and municipal assistance programmes that provide free or subsidised basic services, also serve as protective factors. These help households meet essential health and welfare needs.

    However, several structural and socio-economic constraints hinder transitions out of poverty. For example, living a greater distance from public transport increases the likelihood of severe poverty and vulnerability.

    Food insecurity, measured by skipping meals or dependence on food parcels, remains a persistent marker of entrenched deprivation.

    Gender disparities suggest underlying labour market or social vulnerabilities that require targeted policy interventions. For example, male-headed households are more likely than female-headed households to be moderately poor.

    What can be done

    Escaping multidimensional poverty in Gauteng requires targeted, practical and complementary interventions. Examples include subsidised transport, decentralised clinics, or housing closer to jobs.

    This will enable grants to be translated to improved well-being.

    We suggest eight areas for improvement:

    • access to education, vocational training and digital skills. This will help to increase employment prospects

    • public works and youth entrepreneurship support. This will boost income generation

    • social protection like indigent benefits, food vouchers and subsidised medical aid

    • food security. This can be done through community gardens and nutrition programmes

    • support for female-headed households and young people

    • affordable, reliable public transport. Services also need to be decentralised

    • data-driven municipal planning to guide infrastructure and service investments

    • consistently tracking progress against defined objectives.

    The province implements multiple poverty-reduction initiatives. These include expanded public works, township economy support, food gardens, free basic services, subsidised housing, and public transport projects.

    These efforts address income, food security and mobility. But they have limited impact due to persistent barriers. This is because many, particularly young people, don’t have market-relevant skills. In addition, spatial inequality results in long, costly commutes. And housing shortages and rising food prices deepen vulnerability.

    Fragmented funding, weak coordination and inadequate data tracking also undermine progress.

    Massimiliano Tani receives funding from Australian Research Council (unrelated to this article).

    Adrino Mazenda and Catherine Althaus do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 8 policies that would help fight poverty in South Africa’s economic hub Gauteng – https://theconversation.com/8-policies-that-would-help-fight-poverty-in-south-africas-economic-hub-gauteng-261388

    MIL OSI Analysis –