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Category: Analysis Assessment

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bats get fat to survive hard times. But climate change is threatening their survival strategy

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Wu, Lecturer in Wildlife Ecology, Murdoch University

    Rudmer Zwerver/Shutterstock

    Bats are often cast as the unseen night-time stewards of nature, flitting through the dark to control pest insects, pollinate plants and disperse seeds. But behind their silent contributions lies a remarkable and underappreciated survival strategy: seasonal fattening.

    Much like bears and squirrels, bats around the world bulk up to get through hard times – even in places where you might not expect it.

    In a paper published today in Ecology Letters, we analysed data from bat studies around the world to understand how bats use body fat to survive seasonal challenges, whether it’s a freezing winter or a dry spell.

    The surprising conclusion? Seasonal fattening is a global phenomenon in bats, not just limited to those in cold climates.

    Even bats in the tropics, where it’s warm all year, store fat in anticipation of dry seasons when food becomes scarce. That’s a survival strategy that’s been largely overlooked. But it may be faltering as the climate changes, putting entire food webs at risk.

    Climate shapes fattening strategies

    We found bats in colder regions predictably gain more weight before winter.

    But in warmer regions with highly seasonal rainfall, such as tropical savannas or monsoonal forests, bats also fatten up. In tropical areas, it’s not cold that’s the enemy, but the dry season, when flowers wither, insects vanish and energy is hard to come by.

    The extent of fattening is impressive. Some species increased their body weight by more than 50%, which is a huge burden for flying animals that already use a lot of energy to move around. This highlights the delicate balancing act bats perform between storing energy and staying nimble in the air.

    Sex matters, especially in the cold

    The results also support the “thrifty females, frisky males” hypothesis.

    In colder climates, female bats used their fat reserves more sparingly than males – a likely adaptation to ensure they have enough energy left to raise young when spring returns. Since females typically emerge from hibernation to raise their young, conserving fat through winter can directly benefit their reproductive success.

    Interestingly, this sex-based difference vanished in warmer climates, where fat use by males and females was more similar, likely because more food is available in warmer climates. It’s another clue that climate patterns intricately shape behaviour and physiology.

    Climate change is shifting the rules

    Beyond the biology, our study points to a more sobering trend. Bats in warm regions appear to be increasing their fat stores over time. This could be an early warning sign of how climate change is affecting their survival.

    Climate change isn’t just about rising temperatures. It’s also making seasons more unpredictable.

    Bats may be storing more energy in advance of dry seasons that are becoming longer or harder to predict. That’s risky, because it means more foraging, more exposure to predators and potentially greater mortality.

    The implications can ripple outward. Bats help regulate insect populations, fertilise crops and maintain healthy ecosystems. If their survival strategies falter, entire food webs could feel the effects.

    Fat bats, fragile futures

    Our study changes how we think about bats. They are not just passive victims of environmental change but active strategists, finely tuned to seasonal rhythms. Yet their ability to adapt has limits, and those limits are being tested by a rapidly changing world.

    By understanding how bats respond to climate, we gain insights into broader ecosystem resilience. We also gain a deeper appreciation for one of nature’s quiet heroes – fattening up, flying through the night and holding ecosystems together, one wingbeat at a time.

    Nicholas Wu was the lead author of a funded Australian Research Council Linkage Grant awarded to Christopher Turbill at Western Sydney University.

    – ref. Bats get fat to survive hard times. But climate change is threatening their survival strategy – https://theconversation.com/bats-get-fat-to-survive-hard-times-but-climate-change-is-threatening-their-survival-strategy-259560

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Nearly half of Kiwis oppose automatic citizenship for Cook Islands, says poll

    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist

    A new poll by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union shows that almost half of respondents oppose the Cook Islands having automatic New Zealand citizenship.

    Thirty percent of the 1000-person sample supported Cook Islanders retaining citizenship, 46 percent were opposed and 24 percent were unsure.

    The question asked:

    • The Cook Islands government is pursuing closer strategic ties with China, ignoring New Zealand’s wishes and not consulting with the New Zealand government. Given this, should the Cook Islands continue to enjoy automatic access to New Zealand passports, citizenship, health care and education when its government pursues a foreign policy against the wishes of the New Zealand government?
    • READ MORE: Other Cook Islands reports

    Taxpayers’ Union head of communications Tory Relf said the framing of the question was “fair”.

    “If the Cook Islands wants to continue enjoying a close relationship with New Zealand, then, of course, we will support that,” he said.

    “However, if they are looking in a different direction, then I think it is entirely fair that taxpayers can have a right to say whether they want their money sent there or not.”

    But New Zealand Labour Party deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni said it was a “leading question”.

    ‘Dead end’ assumption
    “It asserts or assumes that we have hit a dead end here and that we cannot resolve the relationship issues that have unfolded between New Zealand and the Cook Islands,” Sepuloni said.

    “We want a resolution. We do not want to assume or assert that it is all done and dusted and the relationship is broken.”

    The two nations have been in free association since 1965.

    Relf said that adding historical context of the two countries relationship would be a different question.

    “We were polling on the Cook Islands current policy, asking about historic ties would introduce an emotive element that would influence the response.”

    New Zealand has paused nearly $20 million in development assistance to the realm nation.

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters said the decision was made because the Cook Islands failed to adequately inform his government about several agreements signed with Beijing in February.

    ‘An extreme response’
    Sepuloni, who is also Labour’s Pacific Peoples spokesperson, said her party agreed with the government that the Cook Islands had acted outside of the free association agreement.

    “[The aid pause is] an extreme response, however, in saying that we don’t have all of the information in front of us that the government have. I’m very mindful that in terms of pausing or stopping aid, the scenarios where I can recall that happening are scenarios like when Fiji was having their coup.”

    In response to questions from Cook Islands News, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown said that, while he acknowledged the concerns raised in the recent poll, he believed it was important to place the discussion within the full context of Cook Islands’ longstanding and unique relationship with New Zealand.

    “The Cook Islands and New Zealand share a deep, enduring constitutional bond underpinned by shared history, family ties, and mutual responsibility,” Brown told the Rarotonga-based newspaper.

    “Cook Islanders are New Zealand citizens not by privilege, but by right. A right rooted in decades of shared sacrifice, contribution, and identity.

    “More than 100,000 Cook Islanders live in New Zealand, contributing to its economy, culture, and communities. In return, our people have always looked to New Zealand not just as a partner but as family.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Melanesian Spearhead Group leaders discuss Middle East conflict before ceasefire

    RNZ Pacific

    Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape says the Middle East conflict was one of the discussions of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) in Suva this week — and Pacific leaders “took note of what is happening”.

    The Post-Courier reports Marape saying the “12 Day War” between Israel and Iran was based on high technology and using missiles sent from great distances.

    “In the context of MSG, the leaders want peace always. And the Pacific remains friends to all, enemies to none,” he said.

    He said an effect on PNG would be the inflation in prices of oil and gas.

    Yesterday morning, US President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire had been agreed  between Israel and Iran, and so far it has been holding in spite of tensions.

    Australia had stepped in to help Papua New Guinea diplomats and citizens caught in the Middle East.

    Foreign Affairs Minister Justin Tkatchenko confirmed last week that a group was to be evacuated through Jordan.

    There had been six diplomats in lockdown at the PNG embassy in Jerusalem awaiting extraction.

    Meanwhile, a repatriation flight for Australians stuck in Israel had been cancelled.

    ABC News reported that it was the second day repatriation plans were scrapped at the last minute because of rocket fire. A bus meant to take people across the border into Jordan was cancelled the previous day.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Video games can help trans players feel seen and safe. It all starts with design

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Phoebe Toups Dugas, Associate Professor of Human-Centred Computing, Monash University

    Shano Liang

    There is a comfort in finding and being yourself. Video games offer opportunities for this comfort. They allow people to exist in safe spaces, to develop community, and to explore the self – as well as the potential self.

    Our recently published study explores how video games can elicit feelings of gender euphoria for transgender people. This could be a result of a player developing a connection with a character they feel represented by. Or, they may simply appreciate the experience of a world in which they exist as their actual gender.

    Far from just providing an escape, our research shows video games can play a major role in fostering inclusion for trans people, and in promoting the joy of being trans.

    Why gender euphoria matters

    Much of the discourse around transgender and gender diverse identities is damage-centred. People have come to understand transness through a medicalised lens that emphasises gender dysphoria.

    Gender “dysphoria” refers to a person’s feelings of disconnection and dissatisfaction with their experience of gender, whether it’s their body, how others treat them, or how they present themselves to the world. For further reading, we recommend The Gender Dysphoria Bible (an online community resource), or Susan Stryker’s book Transgender History.

    Gender “euphoria” refers to feelings of excitement, completeness and affirmation that come when someone truly experiences their gender identity. For cisgender people, gender euphoria is often unremarkable. But for transgender people, discovering this feeling – especially in a hostile world – can be profound and lifesaving.

    In Cyberpunk 2077, Claire’s car interior displays the trans pride flag, signalling to the player that her identity is not a secret, nor a source of shame.
    Michelle Cormier/Monash University, CC BY-SA

    While gender “euphoria” is an old term used by the trans community to understand the potential for happiness, researchers have only recently begun studying it.

    As a group of longtime gamers and trans people, we knew of many games that offered this experience to us. And as researchers and game designers, we had the tools to tease apart these games to understand what makes them meaningful.

    Our study contributes language and a framework for analysing gender euphoria in video games. We hope it will help with developing games that are more inclusive and meaningful for trans players.

    A reflexive thematic analysis

    We used a qualitative research method called reflexive thematic analysis, which involves drawing from one’s own experiences as a source of data that frames the analysis.

    We developed a list of games that were known for trans themes, and/or authored by trans designers, and/or which we had personally found comfort in playing. The list included both indie and mainstream games, such as Cyberpunk 2077, Anna Anthropy’s dys4ia, Animal Crossing: New Horizons and Celeste.

    While analysing the games, we looked at the art, narratives, choices offered to players, and how characters were represented.

    We also identified various “themes” relating to trans experiences which were common among the games. We organised these themes into the categories of design, dynamics and experiences, building on prior design theory.

    A three-pronged framework

    Design elements are what the game maker creates, such as the main story, or how you can manipulate a character. Certain games can be designed in a way that normalises transgender people, such as by offering a range of gender expressions for players, or by allowing trans identity disclosure during play.

    In the game Celeste, the trans pride flag behind Madeline’s computer, and the pill bottle beside her bed, are intentional design choices that help the player understand Madeline’s identity.
    Michelle Cormier/Monash University, CC BY-SA

    The dynamics of a game refer to how it unfolds as a result of the design and players’ decisions. Dynamics, for instance, might address how players come to discover a trans character, or how they might encounter pain and healing through the story.

    And experiences are the emotions players feel as a result of playing, such as the excitement of finishing a level, or sadness over the loss of a beloved character. For trans players, gender euphoric experiences centre on the self and how it relates to the broader world.

    Although it has some issues with trans representation, the game Cyberpunk 2077 is a good example for understanding how we sorted our themes into these three categories.

    The character Claire Russel is designed as a woman street racer, whose trans identity is not made explicit. The player’s interactions with Claire create certain dynamics, after which her character confides she is transgender. This offers the player the experience of having comfortable interactions with a transgender character, and of understanding how the character relates to the larger game world.

    During an emotionally charged scene, Claire speaks candidly to the player about her past.
    Michelle Cormier/Monash University, CC BY-SA

    Unexpectedly, we found expressions of pain (including gender dysphoria) were an important aspect of some of the trans-inclusive games we analysed.

    The games created gender euphoric experiences for players by acknowledging the painful parts of the transgender experience, and then providing opportunities to resolve or live through them.

    Moving towards trans-inclusivity

    Of course, there is more to do. While our reflexive analysis centred trans-femme experiences, there is a range of gender identities out there. More work is needed to see what other designs, dynamics and experiences should be on offer for trans players.

    Gender euphoria is a salve to the unnecessary pain the world brings to trans people. It is therefore a worthy design goal – not just in video games, but in all kinds of interactive systems.

    If we want trans joy in the world, we will have to design for it.

    Phoebe Toups Dugas is affiliated with Monash University and is undertaking volunteer work with Transgender Victoria.

    Michelle Cormier is affiliated with Monash University and is managing a community project for Transgender Victoria as a volunteer.

    – ref. Video games can help trans players feel seen and safe. It all starts with design – https://theconversation.com/video-games-can-help-trans-players-feel-seen-and-safe-it-all-starts-with-design-257901

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The ancients also had to deal with a cost-of-living crisis. Here’s how they managed

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, Lecturer in Classics and Ancient History, The University of Western Australia

    Louis Le Brun, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

    Talk to anyone today, and they will probably have something to say about how expensive life has become. While the rate of inflation has slowed, prices for many goods and services are still much higher than pre-pandemic.

    Cost-of-living crises are not new. They have occurred at various times and places throughout the millennia.

    If we look at cost-of-living pressures in ancient Greek and Roman times and how people back then dealt with them, we can learn something about how to face our own issues.

    ‘The price of land has gone up’

    The cost of living was a conversation topic in antiquity, especially the price of land and food.

    The Roman writer Pliny the Younger (circa 61–113 CE) in one of his letters remarked to his friend about the rising cost of real estate:

    Have you heard that the price of land has gone up, particularly in the neighbourhood of Rome? The reason for the sudden increase in price has given rise to a good deal of discussion.

    The ancient Greek scholar Athenaeus, who lived in Naukratis, in Egypt, around 200 CE, wrote a long book called The Learned Banqueters, depicting a dinner party.

    The characters at this dinner party often complain about the price of food and goods. For example, one character complains about the price of fish:

    I don’t think I’ve ever seen fish more expensive. Poseidon, if you got 10% of what’s spent on them every day, you’d be far away the richest god there is!

    People often said that fish was exorbitantly expensive and thought fish sellers were trying to rip them off.

    In fact, the poet Antiphanes (circa 408–330 BCE) complained “there’s no group more abominable” than fish sellers and money lenders.

    How to lower costs?

    Ancient people were well aware that a cost-of-living crisis can cause political disturbances.

    As the Roman poet Lucan (39–65 CE) wrote:

    the causes of hatred and mainsprings of political popularity are determined by the price of food.

    So, how did ancient leaders deal with this sort of problem?

    One solution was for the ruler to cover the cost of inflation.

    For example, the Athenian statesman Demosthenes (384–322 BCE) mentions a problem with the price of grain that was solved by boosting imports:

    When grain earlier advanced in price and reached sixteen drachmae per medimnus, we imported more than ten thousand medimni of wheat, and measured it out at the normal price of five drachmae a medimnus.

    Alexander Severus helped trim the cost of meat.
    Creative commons, CC BY

    Another solution was to put extreme regulations on the market.

    For example, the Roman emperor Alexander Severus (ruled 222–235 CE) was once faced by a group of angry citizens.

    They demanded a reduction in the price of beef and pork, which had become unaffordable.

    Alexander Severus “did not proclaim a general reduction in prices”, says the anonymous biographer who recounts this anecdote. Instead, the emperor

    ordered that no one should slaughter a sow or a suckling pig, a cow, or a calf. In two years or even in little more than one year, there was such an abundance of pork and beef that while a pound previously cost eight minutili, the price of both these meats was reduced to two and even one per pound.

    The city is so expensive

    The Greek writer Plutarch of Chaeronea (46–119 CE) records a story about the famous philosopher Socrates (circa 470–399 BCE), who lived in Athens.

    One day, according to Plutarch, a friend of Socrates complained to him about “how expensive the city was”:

    Chian wine costs a mina, a purple robe three minae, a half-pint of honey five drachmas!

    In response, Socrates took his friend by the hand and told him to search for bargains or for cheaper items, saying:

    A sleeveless vest for ten drachmas! The city is cheap!

    Socrates’ point was that even in expensive times it’s still possible to find bargains to save money. You just have to look harder for them and lower your standard of living. It can be difficult to do that, but it’s necessary.

    Socrates also gave out employment advice for people who were struggling.

    According to Socrates’ friend, the historian Xenophon of Athens (430–350 BCE), when a poor veteran came to Socrates complaining about lack of money and asking how to cope with expenses, Socrates told him to

    take up some kind of work at once that will assure you a living when you get old.

    Socrates thought making sure you still have money when you
    are old is more important than fully enjoying your current job. You will likely have to put up with things you don’t like to achieve security.

    From ancient to modern

    Most ancient people would probably have said that during a cost-of-living crisis it’s best to be patient, live simply, and wait for better times to come.

    As Pliny the Younger (circa 61–113 CE) once wrote in one of his letters, “my income is small or precarious, but its deficiencies can be made up by simple living”.

    If politicians cannot solve the problems, then it is up to us to cope with them as best as we can.

    Konstantine Panegyres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The ancients also had to deal with a cost-of-living crisis. Here’s how they managed – https://theconversation.com/the-ancients-also-had-to-deal-with-a-cost-of-living-crisis-heres-how-they-managed-257896

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Global rankings fuel hype, but students have more to consider when choosing a uni

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kylie Message, Professor of Public Humanities and Director of the ANU Humanities Research Centre, Australian National University

    At this time of year, many year 12 students are seriously turning their minds to the future. Should they go to university next year? If so, which one?

    June is also the start of the global ranking season. Last week saw the release of the QS Quacquarelli Symonds 2026 world university rankings, amid reports of a “wake-up call” for Australian universities. About 70% of Australian universities fell in the rankings albeit only by small margins.

    Should students be worried about this? What should they – and the rest of us – understand about global rankings?

    What are rankings?

    Global university rankings aim to evaluate all universities in the world through a a single comparative framework.

    Apart from QS, other high-profile global rankings include those by Shanghai Ranking and the Times Higher Education.

    Each ranking system has a slightly different focus and methodology.

    QS looks at student-to-staff ratios, student employability, the reputation of the university as an employer, sustainability, global engagement and academic citations. It also ranks specific subjects across universities, which can be helpful if you want to know about the quality of teaching in a particular discipline or field.

    It is comprehensive. QS included 36 of Australia’s 43 universities in their latest assessment. These universities were also compared to more than 1,400 other institutions across 105 other countries.

    What impact do rankings have?

    These rankings are promoted as objective indicators and markers of prestige. They can be very influential in terms of attracting potential donors and students.

    One analysis suggests academic rankings are more influential than are research results for attracting philanthropic investment in Australian universities.

    The rankings can also directly affect the resources available for students.

    We know rankings can influence where international students (and the resources that accompany them) go. Australian universities have long relied on fees from international students to support funding shortfalls.

    Rankings are not everything

    But global rankings have many critics. They may include a lot of information but this is not necessarily what students in diverse situations and locations need.

    The rankings also do not reflect how much time and how many resources some universities put into the information that goes back to the ranking process.

    In November 2023, an independent expert group, convened by the United Nations issued a statement criticising the rankings system.

    It said “the very idea of global university rankings is fundamentally flawed”.

    It is simply not possible to produce a fair and credible global league table of universities given their multiple missions and their diverse social, economic and political contexts around the world.

    It also noted the rankings advantaged “historically privileged institutions”.

    The statement also said there was a bias towards the English language, certain types of research, and science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects. “This undermines the importance of teaching and of the humanities and social sciences,” it said.

    A bias against regional unis?

    The rankings also do not favour regional universities, which is particularly relevant for Australian students.

    The QS 2026 survey shows four regional Australian universities slipped in rank and all are positioned outside the global top 400.

    This shows how global rankings are a blunt instrument and don’t account for the broader place of universities in regional areas. Here they play a vital role in their communities, driving economic growth and providing essential services.

    What should prospective students consider?

    Although universities within countries are ranked as better or worse than each other in a global league table, it is important to recognise specific national factors are not considered in the rankings. And individual student experience is rarely taken into account.

    Student experience includes the quality of teaching and the types of support individuals have access to, as well as the facilities and the culture on and around campus. We also know student experience continues to be affected by loneliness in the post-Covid era.

    So prospective students should be careful when it comes to making a decision about where to go to university. Rankings are a useful tool but so is talking to friends and family and going to open days.

    More than anything else, Year 12 students should know this is not the most important decision of their lives. They can take a gap year or change degrees. In fact many students do one or both of these things.

    Kylie Message does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Global rankings fuel hype, but students have more to consider when choosing a uni – https://theconversation.com/global-rankings-fuel-hype-but-students-have-more-to-consider-when-choosing-a-uni-259443

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How old are you really? Are the latest ‘biological age’ tests all they’re cracked up to be?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University

    We all like to imagine we’re ageing well. Now a simple blood or saliva test promises to tell us by measuring our “biological age”. And then, as many have done, we can share how “young” we really are on social media, along with our secrets to success.

    While chronological age is how long you have been alive, measures of biological age aim to indicate how old your body actually is, purporting to measure “wear and tear” at a molecular level.

    The appeal of these tests is undeniable. Health-conscious consumers may see their results as reinforcing their anti-ageing efforts, or a way to show their journey to better health is paying off.

    But how good are these tests? Do they actually offer useful insights? Or are they just clever marketing dressed up to look like science?

    How do these tests work?

    Over time, the chemical processes that allow our body to function, known as our “metabolic activity”, lead to damage and a decline in the activity of our cells, tissues and organs.

    Biological age tests aim to capture some of these changes, offering a snapshot of how well, or how poorly, we are ageing on a cellular level.

    Our DNA is also affected by the ageing process. In particular, chemical tags (methyl groups) attach to our DNA and affect gene expression. These changes occur in predictable ways with age and environmental exposures, in a process called methylation.

    Research studies have used “epigenetic clocks”, which measure the methylation of our genes, to estimate biological age. By analysing methylation levels at specific sites in the genome from participant samples, researchers apply predictive models to estimate the cumulative wear and tear on the body.

    What does the research say about their use?

    Although the science is rapidly evolving, the evidence underpinning the use of epigenetic clocks to measure biological ageing in research studies is strong.

    Studies have shown epigenetic biological age estimation is a better predictor of the risk of death and ageing-related diseases than chronological age.

    Epigenetic clocks also have been found to correlate strongly with lifestyle and environmental exposures, such as smoking status and diet quality.

    In addition, they have been found to be able to predict the risk of conditions such as cardiovascular disease, which can lead to heart attacks and strokes.

    Taken together, a growing body of research indicates that at a population level, epigenetic clocks are robust measures of biological ageing and are strongly linked to the risk of disease and death

    But how good are these tests for individuals?

    While these tests are valuable when studying populations in research settings, using epigenetic clocks to measure the biological age of individuals is a different matter and requires scrutiny.

    For testing at an individual level, perhaps the most important consideration is the “signal to noise ratio” (or precision) of these tests. This is the question of whether a single sample from an individual may yield widely differing results.

    A study from 2022 found samples deviated by up to nine years. So an identical sample from a 40-year-old may indicate a biological age of as low as 35 years (a cause for celebration) or as high as 44 years (a cause of anxiety).

    While there have been significant improvements in these tests over the years, there is considerable variability in the precision of these tests between commercial providers. So depending on who you send your sample to, your estimated biological age may vary considerably.

    Another limitation is there is currently no standardisation of methods for this testing. Commercial providers perform these tests in different ways and have different algorithms for estimating biological age from the data.

    As you would expect for commercial operators, providers don’t disclose their methods. So it’s difficult to compare companies and determine who provides the most accurate results – and what you’re getting for your money.

    A third limitation is that while epigenetic clocks correlate well with ageing, they are simply a “proxy” and are not a diagnostic tool.

    In other words, they may provide a general indication of ageing at a cellular level. But they don’t offer any specific insights about what the issue may be if someone is found to be “ageing faster” than they would like, or what they’re doing right if they are “ageing well”.

    So regardless of the result of your test, all you’re likely to get from the commercial provider of an epigenetic test is generic advice about what the science says is healthy behaviour.

    Are they worth it? Or what should I do instead?

    While companies offering these tests may have good intentions, remember their ultimate goal is to sell you these tests and make a profit. And at a cost of around A$500, they’re not cheap.

    While the idea of using these tests as a personalised health tool has potential, it is clear that we are not there yet.

    For this to become a reality, tests will need to become more reproducible, standardised across providers, and validated through long-term studies that link changes in biological age to specific behaviours.

    So while one-off tests of biological age make for impressive social media posts, for most people they represent a significant cost and offer limited real value.

    The good news is we already know what we need to do to increase our chances of living longer and healthier lives. These include:

    • improving our diet
    • increasing physical activity
    • getting enough sleep
    • quitting smoking
    • reducing stress
    • prioritising social connection.

    We don’t need to know our biological age in order to implement changes in our lives right now to improve our health.

    Hassan Vally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How old are you really? Are the latest ‘biological age’ tests all they’re cracked up to be? – https://theconversation.com/how-old-are-you-really-are-the-latest-biological-age-tests-all-theyre-cracked-up-to-be-257710

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Playful or harmful? David Seymour’s posts raise questions about what’s OK to say online

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kevin Veale, Senior Lecturer in Media Studies, part of the Digital Cultures Laboratory in the School of Humanities, Media, and Creative Communication, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

    Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

    Deputy Prime Minister and ACT Party leader David Seymour says he is being “playful” and having “fun” with his “Victim of the Day” social media posts, targeting opponents of his Regulatory Standards Bill.

    But the posts – which have singled out academics and MPs who have criticised or made select committee submissions against the bill, accusing them of suffering from “Regulatory Standards Derangement Syndrome” – have now led to at least two official complaints to Cabinet.

    Wellington City mayor Tory Whanau has alleged they amounted to “online harassment and intimidation” against academics and were in breach of the Cabinet Manual rules for ministers. According to the manual, ministers should

    behave in a way that upholds, and is seen to uphold, the highest ethical and behavioural standards. This includes exercising a professional approach and good judgement in their interactions with the public, staff, and officials, and in all their communications, personal and professional.

    Academic Anne Salmond, one of those targeted by the posts, has also alleged Seymour breached the behaviour standards set out by the manual. According to Salmond:

    This “Victim of the Day” campaign does not match this description. It is unethical, unprofessional and potentially dangerous to those targeted. Debate is fine, online incitements are not.

    When is a joke not a joke?

    Seymour’s claim he was being “playful” while using his platform to criticise individuals follows a pattern of targeting critics while deflecting criticism of his own behaviour.

    For example, in 2022 Seymour demanded an apology from Māori Party co-leader Rawiri Waititi, after Waititi earlier joked about poisoning Seymour with karaka berries. At the time, Seymour said:

    I’m genuinely concerned that the next step is that some slightly more radical person doesn’t think it’s a joke.

    But the same year, Seymour defended Tauranga by-election candidate Cameron Luxton’s joke that the city’s commission chair Anne Tolley was like Marie Antoinette and should be beheaded.

    In 2023, Seymour joked about abolishing the Ministry of Pacific Peoples:

    In my fantasy, we’d send a guy called Guy Fawkes in there and it’d be all over, but we’ll probably have to have a more formal approach than that.

    Māori researcher and advocate Tina Ngata criticised Seymour’s argument that he was joking:

    Calling it a joke does not make it any less white-supremacist. What it does is point to the fact that in David Seymour’s mind, violence against Pacific peoples is so normalised, that he can make a joke out of it […] but he’s not any person is he? He is a politician, a leader of a political party, with a significant platform and the means and opportunities to advance that normalised violence into policy and legislation.

    Designed to silence

    An analysis of Seymour’s recent social media posts by researcher Sanjana Hattotuwa at the Disinformation Project has argued they have the potential to lead to online harassment, saying they are:

    designed to silence opposition to the controversial Regulatory Standards Bill whilst maintaining plausible deniability about the resulting harassment, harms and hate.

    The “Victims of the Day” posts about Anne Salmond and former Green leader Metiria Turei were textbook examples of “technology-facilitated gender-based violence and online misogyny”, Hattotuwa argued. And the use of the term “derangement” framed academic criticism as a mental disorder – undermining expertise.

    As my own research shows, online harassment and violent rhetoric can raise the chances of real-world violence.

    Since the early 2000s, researchers have used the term “stochastic terrorism” to describe a way of indirectly threatening people. Nobody is specifically told “harm these people”, so the person putting them at risk has plausible deniability.

    Seymour is already aware of these dynamics, as shown by his demand for an apology from Waititi over the karaka berry poisoning “joke”.

    Free speech for who?

    Seymour and ACT have long presented themselves as champions of free speech:

    Freedom of expression is one of the most important values our society has. We can only solve our most pressing problems in an open society in which free thought and open enquiry are encouraged.

    By going after critics of the Regulatory Standards Bill, Seymour may only be ridiculing speech he does not like. But he has taken things further in the past.

    In 2023, he criticised poet Tusiata Avia for her poem “Savage Coloniser Pantoum”, which Seymour said was racist and would incite racially motivated violence. He made demands that the government withdraw NZ$107,280 in taxpayer money from the 2023 Auckland Arts Festival in response.

    ACT list MP Todd Stephenson also threatened to remove Creative NZ funding after Avia received a Prime Minister’s Award for Literary Achievement. Avia said she received death threats after ACT’s criticism of her work.

    The more serious purpose of saying something contentious is “just a joke” is to portray those who disagree as humourless and not deserving to be taken seriously.

    ACT’s “Victim of the Day” campaign does something similar in attempting to discredit serious critics of the Regulatory Standards Bill by mocking them.

    But in the end, we have to be alert to the potential political double standard: harmless jokes for me, but not for you. Dangerous threats from you, but not from me.

    Kevin Veale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Playful or harmful? David Seymour’s posts raise questions about what’s OK to say online – https://theconversation.com/playful-or-harmful-david-seymours-posts-raise-questions-about-whats-ok-to-say-online-259658

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: A chance discovery of a 365-million-year-old fossil reveals a new type of ray-finned fish

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Conrad Daniel Mackenzie Wilson, PhD candidate in Earth Sciences, Carleton University

    An artist’s rendition of the newly discovered fish, _Sphyragnathus tyche_. (C. Wilson), CC BY

    In 2015, two members of the Blue Beach Fossil Museum in Nova Scotia found a long, curved fossil jaw, bristling with teeth. Sonja Wood, the museum’s owner, and Chris Mansky, the museum’s curator, found the fossil in a creek after Wood had a hunch.

    The fossil they found belonged to a fish that had died 350 million years ago, its bony husk spanning nearly a metre on the lake bed. The large fish had lived in waters thick with rival fish, including giants several times its size. It had hooked teeth at the tip of its long jaw that it would use to trap elusive prey and fangs at the back to pierce it and break it down to eat.

    For the last eight years, I have been part of a team under the lead of paleontologist Jason Anderson, who has spent decades researching the Blue Beach area of Nova Scotia, northwest of Halifax, in collaboration with Mansky and other colleagues. Much of this work has been on the tetrapods — the group that includes the first vertebrates to move to land and all their descendants — but my research focuses on what Blue Beach fossils can tell us about how the modern vertebrate world formed.

    Blue Beach Fossil Museum curator Chris Mansky below the fossil cliffs.
    (C. Wilson), CC BY

    Birth of the modern vertebrate world

    The modern vertebrate world is defined by the dominance of three groups: the cartilaginous fishes or chondrichthyans (including sharks, rays and chimaeras), the lobe-finned fishes or sarcopterygians (including tetrapods and rare lungfishes and coelacanths), and the ray-finned fishes or actinopterygians (including everything from sturgeon to tuna). Only a few jawless fishes round out the picture.

    This basic grouping has remained remarkably consistent — at least for the last 350 million years.

    Before then, the vertebrate world was a lot more crowded. In the ancient vertebrate world, during the Silurian Period (443.7-419.2 MA) for example, the ancestors of modern vertebrates swam alongside spiny pseudo-sharks (acanthodians), fishy sarcopterygians, placoderms and jawless fishes with bony shells.

    Armoured jawless fishes had dwindled by the Late Devonian Period (419.2-358.9 MA), but the rest were still diverse. Actinopterygians were still restricted to a few species with similar body shapes.

    By the immediately succeeding early Carboniferous times, everything had changed. The placoderms were gone, the number of species of fishy sarcopterygians and acanthodians had cratered, and actinopterygians and chondrichthyans were flourishing in their place.

    The modern vertebrate world was born.

    A shortnose chimaera, belonging to the chondrichthyan group of vertebrates.
    (Shutterstock)

    A sea change

    Blue Beach has helped build our understanding of how this happened. Studies describing its tetrapods and actinopterygians have showed the persistence of Devonian-style forms in the Carboniferous Period.

    Whereas the abrupt end-Devonian decline of the placoderms, acanthodians and fishy sarcopterygians can be explained by a mass extinction, it now appears that multiple types of actinopterygians and tetrapods survived to be preserved at Blue Beach. This makes a big difference to the overall story: Devonian-style tetrapods and actinopterygians survive and contribute to the evolution of these groups into the Carboniferous Period.

    But significant questions remain for paleontologists. One point of debate revolves around how actinopterygians diversified as the modern vertebrate world was born — whether they explored new ways of feeding or swimming first.

    Comparing the jawbones of Sphyragnathus, Austelliscus and Tegeolepis.
    (C. Wilson), CC BY

    The Blue Beach fossil was actinopterygian, and we wondered what it could tell us about this issue. Comparison was difficult. Two actinopterygians with long jaws and large fangs were known from the preceding Devonian Period (Austelliscus ferox and Tegeolepis clarki), but the newly found jaw had more extreme curvature and the arrangement of its teeth. Its largest fangs are at the back of its jaw, but the largest fangs of Austelliscus and Tegeolepis are at the front.

    These differences were significant enough that we created a new genus and species: Sphyragnathus tyche. And, in view of the debate on actinopterygian diversification, we made a prediction: that the differences in anatomy between Sphyragnathus and Devonian actinopterygians represented different adaptations for feeding.

    Front fangs

    To test this prediction, we compared Sphyragnathus, Austelliscus and Tegeolepis to living actinopterygians. In modern actinopterygians, the difference in anatomy reflects a difference in function: front-fangs capture prey with their front teeth and grip it with their back teeth, but back-fangs use their back teeth.

    Since we couldn’t observe the fossil fish in action, we analyzed the stress their teeth would experience if we applied force. The back teeth of Sphyragnathus handled force with low stress, making them suited for a role in piercing prey, but the back teeth of Austelliscus and Tegeolepis turned low forces into significantly higher stress, making them best suited for gripping.

    We concluded that Sphyragnathus was the earliest actinopterygian adapted for breaking down prey by piercing, which also matches the broader predictions of the feeding-first hypothesis.

    Substantial work remains — only the jaw of Sphyragnathus is preserved, so the “locomotion-first” hypothesis was untested. But this represents the challenge and promise of paleontology: get enough tantalizing glimpses into the past and you can begin to unfold a history.

    As for the actinopterygians, research indicates they survived and diversified during Devonian times and had shifting roles during the birth of the modern vertebrate world — at least until more fossils are found that could determine whether that’s the case.

    Conrad Daniel Mackenzie Wilson receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Ontario Student Assistance Program, and the Society of Vertebrate Paleontology.

    – ref. A chance discovery of a 365-million-year-old fossil reveals a new type of ray-finned fish – https://theconversation.com/a-chance-discovery-of-a-365-million-year-old-fossil-reveals-a-new-type-of-ray-finned-fish-254246

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Hidden gems of LGBTQ+ cinema: A League of Their Own was always queer

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kate McNicholas Smith, Lecturer in Television Theory, University of Westminster

    Sports comedy drama film, A League of Their Own, directed by Penny Marshall, was released in 1992. In the same year, professor and film critic B Ruby Rich coined the term “new queer cinema” to describe a wave of independent films which represented LGBTQ+ people in new and unapologetic ways.

    Meanwhile on television, the decade saw some groundbreaking representations of LGBTQ+ characters. In 1997, US actor and TV presenter Ellen DeGeneres famously came out on and off screen.

    Yet, as a teenager coming of age (and coming out) in late 1990s Britain, Section 28 (a law prohibiting the “promotion” of homosexuality by local authorities and schools) was still firmly in place and representation felt scarce. So, I did what queer audiences have always done and found representation in interpretation, reimagining and reading the subtext.

    Queer viewers have long found pleasure and queer possibilities in popular culture. There are many examples of stars and screen characters who are not necessarily LGBTQ+ themselves but have come to be distinctly associated with queer culture. Take singer and actress Judy Garland, who is widely recognised as a gay icon (as depicted in the 2019 biographical film Judy).

    So big was her LGBTQ+ fandom that she likely inspired the historical code term “a friend of Dorothy”. This code references The Wizard of Oz, in which Garland plays Dorothy, and was used within the LGBTQ+ community to discreetly identify each other.

    This article is part of a series highlighting brilliant films that should be more widely known and firmly part of the canon of queer cinema .

    Film theorist Patricia White traces such viewing practices back to the introduction of the Motion Picture Production (or Hays) Code. The Code heavily restricted what could be shown on screen and prohibited LGBTQ+ representation, but in doing so encouraged audiences to engage in queer codes and subtexts.

    A League of Their Own tells the fictionalised true story of the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League. In 1988, Dottie Hinson (Geena Davis) is attending a celebration of the women at the Baseball Hall of Fame. We quickly flash back to 1943 and the formation of the league.

    The second world war is in full thrust and the men are away fighting, which threatens the shut down of major league baseball. However, Chicago Cubs owner Walter Harvey persuades his fellow owners to bankroll a women’s league.

    Making up the newly formed Rockford Peaches, there’s Davis as Dottie and Lori Petty as Kit, Dottie’s frustrated younger sister. Also on the team are “tomboy” Marla Hooch (Megan Cavanagh), “all the way” Mae Mordabito, played by Madonna (who once declared “I think everybody has a bisexual nature”), and Doris Murphy, played by lesbian comic, actor and talk show host, Rosie O’Donnell (although O’Donnell didn’t come out publicly until 2002).



    Read more:
    Hidden gems of LGBTQ+ cinema: Saving Face is a complicated romcom that tenderly depicts the experiences of queer Asians

    While the film remains determinedly heterosexual, the possibilities for queer readings abound. Characters like Dottie and Mae offer glamorous high femme looks and personas, while Kit and Marla represent outsiders who don’t quite fit in. The close relationship, styling and characterisations of best friends Doris and Mae (and the extra connotations of the actors) evoke a coded butch/femme couple. No surprise then that I am not alone in my love for the film. A League of their Own became a cult queer classic.



    Read more:
    Hidden gems of LGBTQ+ cinema: celebrating the wonderful slippery queerness of Penda’s Fen

    There may be, as reluctant Rockford Peaches manager Jimmy (Tom Hanks) shouts in one of the film’s most quoted lines, “no crying in baseball” – but the film never fails to leave me in tears.

    Everytime I watch Dottie leaving the league to return to her husband Bob – a narrative resolve that firmly forecloses the queer possibilities of the character – my heart is broken. The melancholy of the ending perhaps reflects the seeming impossibility of a queer future – both in 1940s US and to me at school in 1990s Britain. Of course, queerness was far from impossible in either decade, although it was often, as in the film, hidden from those who did not know where to look for it.

    Rockford Peach Dorothy “Dottie” Kamenshek was one of the inspirations for the fictional Dottie – she was also a lesbian and later married fellow player Margaret Wenzell. Another player in the women’s league at the time, Peoria Redwings catcher Terry Donahue, kept her relationship with Pat Henschel a secret for almost 70 years. In 2020, Netflix documentary, A Secret Love, told their story.

    Maybelle Blair, who also played for a time with the Peoria Redwings, came out publicly at 95 years old in 2022. She reflected on the women of the league: “Out of 650, I bet you 400 was gay.”

    In 2022, Amazon Prime released a television adaptation of A League of Their Own, co-created by Will Graham and Abbi Jacobson (Broad City). Like queer fan fiction come to life, the television show rewrites the central characters as canonically queer.

    What’s more, unlike the film, the series offers a diverse take on the racism and homophobia, as well as the sexism, of the era. This time round, the central characters included Maxine Chapman (Chanté Adams) – a black lesbian player who is rejected from the racially segregated league – and her black transmasculine uncle Bertie (Lea Robinson).

    In one episode, the queer teammates visit a lesbian bar run by none other than Rosie O’Donnell, now a 1940s butch with a wife. To gain entry they are asked: “Are you a friend of Dorothy’s?”

    Thus, the queer subtext of A League of Their Own, which so captured my queer teen heart, emerged firmly into view in the television adaptation, which was sadly cancelled after only one series. Watching the series, however, was validating, as what secretly made the film mean so much to me was made visible. Queerness in the show, like in my own life, was no longer an impossibility.

    Kate McNicholas Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Hidden gems of LGBTQ+ cinema: A League of Their Own was always queer – https://theconversation.com/hidden-gems-of-lgbtq-cinema-a-league-of-their-own-was-always-queer-257061

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Neurodiverse kids at camp: How programs can become places where all children belong

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Nicole Neil, Associate professor, Faculty of Education, Western University

    For many families, summer camp is a rite of passage representing friendship, fun and freedom. But for families of children with neurodevelopmental disabilities, it can be a season of rejection, stress and exclusion.

    While other children pack their bags for campfires and canoeing, many children with disabilities are told there’s no space for them, not because they don’t belong, but because the camp isn’t prepared. This is a reality faced by families of children with disabilities.

    That’s why colleagues and I created the Inclusive Camp Hub (inclusivecamp.ca), a free, research-informed platform to help camps become places where every child can participate.

    Why we needed to act

    In Canada, about one in 11 children are diagnosed with a neurodevelopmental disability, such as autism, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and intellectual disabilities. And yet, despite legal protections like the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act, many camps report difficulties in creating inclusive environments.

    Our research into inclusion in community settings, such as camps and museums, revealed consistent barriers: staff lacked training, resources were scarce and families were left with few options. As a result, children with neurodevelopmental disabilities were excluded from the same joyful, formative experiences their peers enjoyed.

    These barriers have real consequences. Families often struggle to find respite during the summer, and children miss out on opportunities for social development, peer interaction and community belonging.

    Building the Hub

    Well-trained and supportive staff play a crucial role in fostering inclusion in camps. Interviews with families revealed the importance of staff who are kind, responsive and equipped to support a wide range of needs. It was clear that staff training needed to be a central focus of our work.

    We designed The Inclusive Camp Hub to feature practical tools grounded in research from inclusive education to focus on staff training modules, tip sheets and real-world strategies that are easy to implement.

    In studying and following a module about Universal Design for Learning, for example, camp directors or staff can consider strategies for providing multiple means of representation, engagement and expression — while ensuring physical spaces and materials are universally accessible.

    Less awareness of cognitive accessibility

    While many community settings have made strides in improving physical accessibility, adding ramps, accessible washrooms and mobility-friendly spaces, there has been far less attention paid to cognitive accessibility.

    This includes designing environments that support different ways to participate, such as by making routines predictable and by making activities flexible enough to accommodate different ways of learning.

    In developing the Inclusive Camp Hub, we drew on evidence-based practices identified in our research.

    These include staff training, peer-mediated interventions and behavioural supports such as reinforcement systems and prompting. Reinforcement systems are structured ways to encourage behaviour by offering rewards or positive outcomes when those behaviours happen. Prompting means giving a child cues, like pictures, words or gestures, to help them complete a task such as using a visual schedule to show what comes next.

    We also found that families with children with neurodevelopmental disabilities valued hands-on, multi-sensory learning experiences, clear signage, quiet spaces and staff who are kind and responsive. By incorporating these strategies into our training site, we aimed to make inclusion achievable and sustainable for camps of all types.

    A model camp

    To test and refine our approach to inclusion, we launched a model inclusive camp, called the S3 camp, at Western University.

    We welcomed children ages nine to 14 — with and without neurodevelopmental disabilities — and focused on STEM activities, disability awareness and, most importantly, a sense of belonging.

    The camp was staffed by students in a school psychology program, as well as education and STEM-field students who received specialized training and used inclusive design tools from the Hub. They learned how to create accessible activities, use behavioural supports, support communication differences and foster inclusive group dynamics.

    The results were promising. We saw campers who had difficulty at other camps fully engaged in activities. Staff reported feeling more confident and capable in supporting children with disabilities, and parents said their children came home happy, proud and excited to return the next year.

    Why camp inclusion matters

    At first glance, summer camps might seem like a luxury — a fun experience rather than a critical developmental one. But camps offer more than just fun: they are powerful spaces for growth, learning and connection.

    Research shows that children in inclusive settings experience improved social skills, stronger peer relationships and increased self-esteem. They learn through play, build friendships and develop a sense of belonging, all which are foundational for healthy development.

    These benefits extend to all campers. Neurotypical children gain empathy, communication skills and a broader understanding of diversity

    Looking forward

    Inclusive Camp Hub is now expanding its reach, with plans to partner with more camps and extend its impact while continuing to refine our tools based on feedback from families, staff and community organizations.

    Camp leaders can take the first step by exploring the free tools and training available through the Hub. Families and advocates can continue to ask questions, share their experiences and push for environments where all children are welcomed and supported.

    As a researcher, I’ve spent years studying inclusion. But nothing compares to seeing it in action, watching a child find joy, friendship and confidence at camp. Every child deserves a summer of belonging.

    Nicole Neil’s work is supported in part by funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.

    – ref. Neurodiverse kids at camp: How programs can become places where all children belong – https://theconversation.com/neurodiverse-kids-at-camp-how-programs-can-become-places-where-all-children-belong-258793

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Canada Day: Resurrecting John A. Macdonald statues ignores critical lessons about Canada’s history

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Eric Strikwerda, Associate Professor, History, Athabasca University

    “We’re freeing John A.,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford recently announced, unveiling plans to return a statue of Sir John A. Macdonald to its place of prominence overlooking the south lawn of the Ontario legislature at Queen’s Park.

    The statue’s return comes five years after activists, disgusted by the first Canadian prime minister’s racist policies, sprayed pink paint over the statue’s base.

    Ford’s announcement was welcome news to the mostly conservative historians, editorialists and assorted pundits who have decried Macdonald’s “cancellation.”

    Their objections have been part of passionate debates about whether racist and harmful figures from the past should be celebrated through statues, school and state institution names and public infrastructure projects.

    For these conservatives, the issue is simple. Dismantling statues is dismantling Canada’s history.



    Read more:
    Canada needs to reckon with the relics of its colonial past, including racist statues

    On the other side of the debate are those who argue that Macdonald’s active and integral role in creating the aggressively assimilationist Gradual Civilization Act, the infamous Indian Residential Schools system, the Reserve and Pass Systems and the Indian Act were all meant to make Indigenous Peoples disappear.

    Macdonald was no man to celebrate, they contend, and his statue is nothing more than a symbol of racism and Canada’s dark colonial past.



    Read more:
    ‘Clearing the plains’ continues with the acquittal of Gerald Stanley

    Flurries of commemoration

    Both sides to the debate, of course, are correct in their assessments of Canada’s first prime minister. Like all historical figures from the past, Macdonald was a complex human being operating at a particular historical moment. And his actions had important historical implications for the way Canada developed.

    Was Macdonald, as proponents of his statue suggest, a visionary nation-builder? Maybe. But he was also a racist colonizer who used his position and his power to advance clearly racist goals in the most awful ways.

    And yet, the debate misses a deeper and much more interesting set of questions about how we understand Canadian history, how we describe Canada’s past and ultimately how Canadians tell stories about themselves to each other.

    It’s important to recognize from where and in what historical contexts Canada’s statues, commemorations and public infrastructure names come. Statues of figures like Macdonald, as well as the naming of public buildings, bridges and roads in his honour, appeared principally at two separate times.

    The first came in the late 19th century, mostly commemorating Macdonald’s death in 1891. But statues were being erected during this period amid rising nationalism. They signalled a celebration of Canada’s membership in the British Empire, then at the zenith of its power and influence.

    The second flurry of Macdonald commemoration was in the mid-1960s, another moment of heightened nationalism and Canadian pride. It coincided with Canada’s centenary in 1967, the Montréal Expo that same year, a new Canadian flag and a newfound confidence in the world through its active participation in international peacekeeping efforts.

    Canada was also at that time grappling with a deeply dissatisfied Québec and its place in Confederation, a state of affairs that eventually resulted in a divisive sovereignty referendum in 1980 that threatened the very fabric of Canada.

    Respecting the dissent

    But just as Canadians need to understand the historical contexts in which citizens of the past have celebrated people like Macdonald, so too do they need to grasp the historical contexts in which Canadians past and present have questioned his legacy.

    In 2013, the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States sparked critical re-evaluations of statues of Civil War-era figures from the American South and the continued use in some southern states of the highly offensive Confederate flag, along with many other symbols of racism, division and hatred.

    The release of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s (TRC) final report a decade ago similarly forced Canadians to confront some the darkest chapters of the country’s past.

    The point often missed here is that historical markers — like the TRC Commission and the Black Lives Matter movement — themselves become artefacts of the ongoing project involving how people tell stories about themselves to themselves, what those stories say about them in the present and how they want to define themselves in the future.

    A more fulsome engagement with history demands Canadians refrain from conflating the story of John A. Macdonald, the statue, with the story of John A. Macdonald, the man, any more than we’d conflate a drawing of an apple with the one on our counter.

    A true examination of Macdonald

    It’s not a question of who Macdonald was or wasn’t. Instead, it’s about the historical context in which the commemorations of him were installed. But it’s also part of the continuing story of how we see ourselves today.

    Claims that dismantling public statues and renaming roads and schools somehow erases Canadian history are ridiculous and profoundly misunderstand how history works.

    As Canada Day approaches, it’s important to remember that Macdonald’s story and legacy live on exactly where they should — in the pages of history books, museums and classrooms, where his life and times can be examined, interpreted and debated with the kind of depth and nuance that Canadian history deserves.

    Eric Strikwerda does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canada Day: Resurrecting John A. Macdonald statues ignores critical lessons about Canada’s history – https://theconversation.com/canada-day-resurrecting-john-a-macdonald-statues-ignores-critical-lessons-about-canadas-history-259351

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Canada Day: Resurrecting John A. Macdonald statues ignores critical lessons about Canada’s history

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Eric Strikwerda, Associate Professor, History, Athabasca University

    “We’re freeing John A.,” Ontario Premier Doug Ford recently announced, unveiling plans to return a statue of Sir John A. Macdonald to its place of prominence overlooking the south lawn of the Ontario legislature at Queen’s Park.

    The statue’s return comes five years after activists, disgusted by the first Canadian prime minister’s racist policies, sprayed pink paint over the statue’s base.

    Ford’s announcement was welcome news to the mostly conservative historians, editorialists and assorted pundits who have decried Macdonald’s “cancellation.”

    Their objections have been part of passionate debates about whether racist and harmful figures from the past should be celebrated through statues, school and state institution names and public infrastructure projects.

    For these conservatives, the issue is simple. Dismantling statues is dismantling Canada’s history.



    Read more:
    Canada needs to reckon with the relics of its colonial past, including racist statues

    On the other side of the debate are those who argue that Macdonald’s active and integral role in creating the aggressively assimilationist Gradual Civilization Act, the infamous Indian Residential Schools system, the Reserve and Pass Systems and the Indian Act were all meant to make Indigenous Peoples disappear.

    Macdonald was no man to celebrate, they contend, and his statue is nothing more than a symbol of racism and Canada’s dark colonial past.



    Read more:
    ‘Clearing the plains’ continues with the acquittal of Gerald Stanley

    Flurries of commemoration

    Both sides to the debate, of course, are correct in their assessments of Canada’s first prime minister. Like all historical figures from the past, Macdonald was a complex human being operating at a particular historical moment. And his actions had important historical implications for the way Canada developed.

    Was Macdonald, as proponents of his statue suggest, a visionary nation-builder? Maybe. But he was also a racist colonizer who used his position and his power to advance clearly racist goals in the most awful ways.

    And yet, the debate misses a deeper and much more interesting set of questions about how we understand Canadian history, how we describe Canada’s past and ultimately how Canadians tell stories about themselves to each other.

    It’s important to recognize from where and in what historical contexts Canada’s statues, commemorations and public infrastructure names come. Statues of figures like Macdonald, as well as the naming of public buildings, bridges and roads in his honour, appeared principally at two separate times.

    The first came in the late 19th century, mostly commemorating Macdonald’s death in 1891. But statues were being erected during this period amid rising nationalism. They signalled a celebration of Canada’s membership in the British Empire, then at the zenith of its power and influence.

    The second flurry of Macdonald commemoration was in the mid-1960s, another moment of heightened nationalism and Canadian pride. It coincided with Canada’s centenary in 1967, the Montréal Expo that same year, a new Canadian flag and a newfound confidence in the world through its active participation in international peacekeeping efforts.

    Canada was also at that time grappling with a deeply dissatisfied Québec and its place in Confederation, a state of affairs that eventually resulted in a divisive sovereignty referendum in 1980 that threatened the very fabric of Canada.

    Respecting the dissent

    But just as Canadians need to understand the historical contexts in which citizens of the past have celebrated people like Macdonald, so too do they need to grasp the historical contexts in which Canadians past and present have questioned his legacy.

    In 2013, the Black Lives Matter movement in the United States sparked critical re-evaluations of statues of Civil War-era figures from the American South and the continued use in some southern states of the highly offensive Confederate flag, along with many other symbols of racism, division and hatred.

    The release of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission’s (TRC) final report a decade ago similarly forced Canadians to confront some the darkest chapters of the country’s past.

    The point often missed here is that historical markers — like the TRC Commission and the Black Lives Matter movement — themselves become artefacts of the ongoing project involving how people tell stories about themselves to themselves, what those stories say about them in the present and how they want to define themselves in the future.

    A more fulsome engagement with history demands Canadians refrain from conflating the story of John A. Macdonald, the statue, with the story of John A. Macdonald, the man, any more than we’d conflate a drawing of an apple with the one on our counter.

    A true examination of Macdonald

    It’s not a question of who Macdonald was or wasn’t. Instead, it’s about the historical context in which the commemorations of him were installed. But it’s also part of the continuing story of how we see ourselves today.

    Claims that dismantling public statues and renaming roads and schools somehow erases Canadian history are ridiculous and profoundly misunderstand how history works.

    As Canada Day approaches, it’s important to remember that Macdonald’s story and legacy live on exactly where they should — in the pages of history books, museums and classrooms, where his life and times can be examined, interpreted and debated with the kind of depth and nuance that Canadian history deserves.

    Eric Strikwerda does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canada Day: Resurrecting John A. Macdonald statues ignores critical lessons about Canada’s history – https://theconversation.com/canada-day-resurrecting-john-a-macdonald-statues-ignores-critical-lessons-about-canadas-history-259351

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien accepts invitation to government’s economic roundtable

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The federal opposition has accepted an invitation from Treasurer Jim Chalmers for shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien to attend the August economic roundtable.

    The acceptance contrasts with the position taken by former opposition leader Peter Dutton last term. He refused to attend the government’s jobs and skills summit although the Nationals leader David Littleproud did so.

    The opposition’s decision is in line with the indication from its leader Sussan Ley that she wants to be more constructive than the Liberals were last term.

    The roundtable, focused on productivity, has broadened into a meeting where tax reform is expected to figures heavily. Chalmers is looking for consensus for reforms but the extent to which that can be achieved remains to be seen.

    Chalmers said on Tuesday he had provided the invitation to O’Brien “in good faith. I think it would be a good thing to have the shadow treasurer engaged at the economic reform roundtable.

    “I think it will give us a better chance of making the kind of progress that we desperately need to see on reform and in our economy more broadly.”

    Chalmers is still finalising the invitations, which will go to business, the union movement and civil society representatives.

    O’Brien said he would engage at the roundtable “in a business-like fashion”.

    He said the Coalition would be “constructive where we can and critical where we must”. It would hold the government to account and he would not be at the summit “to rubber stamp a talkfest”.

    “It’s worth the treasurer knowing from the outset that I believe rhetoric is no substitute for reform. I want to see honesty in how the government defines the economic problems our nation faces, and I will be looking to tangible outcomes as real measures of success.”

    On Wednesday Ley will appear at the National Press Club, speaking about her personal story, the Liberals’ federal election defeat, and some markers on policy areas where the Liberals will focus.

    She will also outline some priority policy areas that she’ll champion during this parliamentary term.

    In her address Ley will highlight “aspiration”, saying this is the “thread that connects every single part of Australian society”.

    “Aspiration is the foundation of the Australian promise: that if you work hard, play by the rules, do your best for your kids and contribute to your community, you will be able to build a better life for yourself and your family.”

    In her speech, part of which was released ahead of delivery, Ley acknowledges the opposition didn’t just lose the last election – “we got smashed. We respect the election outcome with humility. We accept it with contrition. And we must learn from it with conviction.”

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Shadow treasurer Ted O’Brien accepts invitation to government’s economic roundtable – https://theconversation.com/shadow-treasurer-ted-obrien-accepts-invitation-to-governments-economic-roundtable-259691

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Fiji advocacy group slams Indonesian role in MSG as a ‘disgrace’

    Asia Pacific Report

    A Fiji-based advocacy group has condemned the participation of Indonesia in the Melanesian Spearhead Group which is meeting in Suva this week, saying it is a “profound disgrace” that the Indonesian Embassy continues to “operate freely” within the the MSG Secretariat.

    “This presence blatantly undermines the core principles of justice and solidarity we claim to uphold as Melanesians,” said We Bleed Black and Red in a social media post.

    The group said that as the new MSG chair, the Fiji government could not speak cannot credibly about equity, peace, regional unity, or the Melanesian family “while the very agent of prolonged Melanesian oppression sits at the decision-making table”.

    The statement said that for more than six decades, the people of West Papua had endured “systemic atrocities from mass killings to environmental devastation — acts that clearly constitute ecocide and gross human rights violations”.

    “Indonesia’s track record is not only morally indefensible but also a flagrant breach of numerous international agreements and conventions,” the group said.

    “It is time for all Melanesian nations to confront the reality behind the diplomatic facades and development aid.

    “No amount of financial incentives or diplomatic charm can erase the undeniable suffering of the West Papuan people.

    “We must rise above political appeasement and fulfill our moral and regional duty as one Melanesian family.

    “The Pacific cannot claim moral leadership while turning a blind eye and deaf ear to colonial violence on our own shores. Justice delayed is justice denied.”

    ‘Peaceful, prosperous Melanesia’
     Meanwhile, The Fiji Times reports that the 23rd MSG Leaders’ Summit got underway on Monday in Suva, drawing heads of state from Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, and representatives from New Caledonia’s FLNKS.

    Hosted under the theme “A Peaceful and Prosperous Melanesia,” the summit ended yesterday.

    This year’s meeting also marked Fiji’s first time chairing the regional bloc since 1997.

    Fiji officially assumed the MSG chairmanship from Vanuatu following a traditional handover ceremony attended by senior officials, observers, and dignitaries at Draiba.

    Papua New Guinea’s Prime Minister James Marape arrived in Suva on Sunday and reaffirmed Papua New Guinea’s commitment to MSG cooperation during today’s plenary session.

    He will also take part in high-level talanoa discussions with the Pacific Islands Forum’s Eminent Persons Group, aimed at deepening institutional reform and regional solidarity.

    Observers from the United Liberation Movement for West Papua (ULMWP) and Indonesia were also present, reflecting ongoing efforts to expand the bloc’s influence on issues like self-determination, regional trade, security, and climate resilience in the Pacific.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Will the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel hold? One factor could be crucial to it sticking

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    Amir Levy/Getty Images

    After 12 days of war, US President Donald Trump has announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran that would bring to an end the most dramatic, direct conflict between the two nations in decades.

    Israel and Iran both agreed to adhere to the ceasefire, though they said they would respond with force to any breach.

    If the ceasefire holds – a big if – the key question will be whether this signals the start of lasting peace, or merely a brief pause before renewed conflict.

    As contemporary war studies show, peace tends to endure under one of two conditions: either the total defeat of one side, or the establishment of mutual deterrence. This means both parties refrain from aggression because the expected costs of retaliation far outweigh any potential gains.

    What did each side gain?

    The war marked a turning point for Israel in its decades-long confrontation with Iran. For the first time, Israel successfully brought a prolonged battle to Iranian soil, shifting the conflict from confrontations with Iranian-backed proxy militant groups to direct strikes on Iran itself.

    This was made possible largely due to Israel’s success over the past two years in weakening Iran’s regional proxy network, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite militias in Syria.

    Over the past two weeks, Israel has inflicted significant damage on Iran’s military and scientific elite, killing several high-ranking commanders and nuclear scientists. The civilian toll was also high.

    Additionally, Israel achieved a major strategic objective by pulling the United States directly into the conflict. In coordination with Israel, the US launched strikes on three of Iran’s primary nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

    Despite these gains, Israel did not accomplish all of its stated goals. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had voiced support for regime change, urging Iranians to rise up against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s government, but the senior leadership in Iran remains intact.

    Additionally, Israel did not fully eliminate Iran’s missile program, as Iran continued striking to the last minute before the ceasefire. And Tehran did not acquiesce to Trump’s pre-war demand to end uranium enrichment.

    Although Iran was caught off-guard by Israel’s attacks — particularly as it was engaged in nuclear negotiations with the US — it responded by launching hundreds of missiles towards Israel.

    While many were intercepted, a significant number penetrated Israeli air defences, causing widespread destruction in major cities, dozens of fatalities and hundreds of injuries.

    Iran demonstrated its capacity to strike back, though Israel succeeded in destroying many of its air defence systems, some ballistic missile assets (including missile launchers) and multiple energy facilities.

    Since the beginning of the assault, Iranian officials have repeatedly called for a halt to resume negotiations. Under intense pressure, Iran realised it would not benefit from a prolonged war of attrition with Israel — especially as both nations faced mounting costs and the risk of depleting their military stockpiles if the war continued.

    As theories of victory suggest, success in war is defined not only by the damage inflicted, but by achieving core strategic goals and weakening the enemy’s will and capacity to resist.

    While Israel claims to have achieved the bulk of its objectives, the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program is not fully known, nor is its capacity to continue enriching uranium.

    Both sides could remain locked in a volatile standoff over Iran’s nuclear program, with the conflict potentially reigniting whenever either side perceives a strategic opportunity.

    Sticking point over Iran’s nuclear program

    Iran faces even greater challenges as it emerges from the war. With a heavy toll on its leadership and nuclear infrastructure, Tehran will likely prioritise rebuilding its deterrence capability.

    That includes acquiring new advanced air defence systems — potentially from China — and restoring key components of its missile and nuclear programs. (Some experts say Iran did not use some of its most powerful missiles to maintain this deterrence.)

    Iranian officials have claimed they safeguarded more than 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium before the attacks. This stockpile could theoretically be converted into nine to ten nuclear warheads if further enriched to 90%.

    Trump declared Iran’s nuclear capacity had been “totally obliterated”, whereas Rafael Grossi, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog chief, said damage to Iran’s facilities was “very significant”.

    However, analysts have argued Iran will still have a depth of technical knowledge accumulated over decades. Depending on the extent of the damage to its underground facilities, Iran could be capable of restoring and even accelerating its program in a relatively short time frame.

    And the chances of reviving negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program appear slimmer than ever.

    What might future deterrence look like?

    The war has fundamentally reshaped how both Iran and Israel perceive deterrence — and how they plan to secure it going forward.

    For Iran, the conflict reinforced the belief that its survival is at stake. With regime change openly discussed during the war, Iran’s leaders appear more convinced than ever that true deterrence requires two key pillars: nuclear weapons capability, and deeper strategic alignment with China and Russia.

    As a result, Iran is expected to move rapidly to restore and advance its nuclear program, potentially moving towards actual weaponisation — a step it had long avoided, officially.

    At the same time, Tehran is likely to accelerate military and economic cooperation with Beijing and Moscow to hedge against isolation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasised this close engagement with Russia during a visit to Moscow this week, particularly on nuclear matters.

    Israel, meanwhile, sees deterrence as requiring constant vigilance and a credible threat of overwhelming retaliation. In the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs, Israel may adopt a policy of immediate preemptive strikes on Iranian facilities or leadership figures if it detects any new escalation — particularly related to Iran’s nuclear program.

    In this context, the current ceasefire appears fragile. Without comprehensive negotiations that address the core issues — namely, Iran’s nuclear capabilities — the pause in hostilities may prove temporary.

    Mutual deterrence may prevent a more protracted war for now, but the balance remains precarious and could collapse with little warning.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Will the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel hold? One factor could be crucial to it sticking – https://theconversation.com/will-the-fragile-ceasefire-between-iran-and-israel-hold-one-factor-could-be-crucial-to-it-sticking-259669

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Will the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel hold? One factor could be crucial to it sticking

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    Amir Levy/Getty Images

    After 12 days of war, US President Donald Trump has announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran that would bring to an end the most dramatic, direct conflict between the two nations in decades.

    Israel and Iran both agreed to adhere to the ceasefire, though they said they would respond with force to any breach.

    If the ceasefire holds – a big if – the key question will be whether this signals the start of lasting peace, or merely a brief pause before renewed conflict.

    As contemporary war studies show, peace tends to endure under one of two conditions: either the total defeat of one side, or the establishment of mutual deterrence. This means both parties refrain from aggression because the expected costs of retaliation far outweigh any potential gains.

    What did each side gain?

    The war marked a turning point for Israel in its decades-long confrontation with Iran. For the first time, Israel successfully brought a prolonged battle to Iranian soil, shifting the conflict from confrontations with Iranian-backed proxy militant groups to direct strikes on Iran itself.

    This was made possible largely due to Israel’s success over the past two years in weakening Iran’s regional proxy network, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite militias in Syria.

    Over the past two weeks, Israel has inflicted significant damage on Iran’s military and scientific elite, killing several high-ranking commanders and nuclear scientists. The civilian toll was also high.

    Additionally, Israel achieved a major strategic objective by pulling the United States directly into the conflict. In coordination with Israel, the US launched strikes on three of Iran’s primary nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

    Despite these gains, Israel did not accomplish all of its stated goals. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had voiced support for regime change, urging Iranians to rise up against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s government, but the senior leadership in Iran remains intact.

    Additionally, Israel did not fully eliminate Iran’s missile program, as Iran continued striking to the last minute before the ceasefire. And Tehran did not acquiesce to Trump’s pre-war demand to end uranium enrichment.

    Although Iran was caught off-guard by Israel’s attacks — particularly as it was engaged in nuclear negotiations with the US — it responded by launching hundreds of missiles towards Israel.

    While many were intercepted, a significant number penetrated Israeli air defences, causing widespread destruction in major cities, dozens of fatalities and hundreds of injuries.

    Iran demonstrated its capacity to strike back, though Israel succeeded in destroying many of its air defence systems, some ballistic missile assets (including missile launchers) and multiple energy facilities.

    Since the beginning of the assault, Iranian officials have repeatedly called for a halt to resume negotiations. Under intense pressure, Iran realised it would not benefit from a prolonged war of attrition with Israel — especially as both nations faced mounting costs and the risk of depleting their military stockpiles if the war continued.

    As theories of victory suggest, success in war is defined not only by the damage inflicted, but by achieving core strategic goals and weakening the enemy’s will and capacity to resist.

    While Israel claims to have achieved the bulk of its objectives, the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program is not fully known, nor is its capacity to continue enriching uranium.

    Both sides could remain locked in a volatile standoff over Iran’s nuclear program, with the conflict potentially reigniting whenever either side perceives a strategic opportunity.

    Sticking point over Iran’s nuclear program

    Iran faces even greater challenges as it emerges from the war. With a heavy toll on its leadership and nuclear infrastructure, Tehran will likely prioritise rebuilding its deterrence capability.

    That includes acquiring new advanced air defence systems — potentially from China — and restoring key components of its missile and nuclear programs. (Some experts say Iran did not use some of its most powerful missiles to maintain this deterrence.)

    Iranian officials have claimed they safeguarded more than 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium before the attacks. This stockpile could theoretically be converted into nine to ten nuclear warheads if further enriched to 90%.

    Trump declared Iran’s nuclear capacity had been “totally obliterated”, whereas Rafael Grossi, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog chief, said damage to Iran’s facilities was “very significant”.

    However, analysts have argued Iran will still have a depth of technical knowledge accumulated over decades. Depending on the extent of the damage to its underground facilities, Iran could be capable of restoring and even accelerating its program in a relatively short time frame.

    And the chances of reviving negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program appear slimmer than ever.

    What might future deterrence look like?

    The war has fundamentally reshaped how both Iran and Israel perceive deterrence — and how they plan to secure it going forward.

    For Iran, the conflict reinforced the belief that its survival is at stake. With regime change openly discussed during the war, Iran’s leaders appear more convinced than ever that true deterrence requires two key pillars: nuclear weapons capability, and deeper strategic alignment with China and Russia.

    As a result, Iran is expected to move rapidly to restore and advance its nuclear program, potentially moving towards actual weaponisation — a step it had long avoided, officially.

    At the same time, Tehran is likely to accelerate military and economic cooperation with Beijing and Moscow to hedge against isolation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasised this close engagement with Russia during a visit to Moscow this week, particularly on nuclear matters.

    Israel, meanwhile, sees deterrence as requiring constant vigilance and a credible threat of overwhelming retaliation. In the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs, Israel may adopt a policy of immediate preemptive strikes on Iranian facilities or leadership figures if it detects any new escalation — particularly related to Iran’s nuclear program.

    In this context, the current ceasefire appears fragile. Without comprehensive negotiations that address the core issues — namely, Iran’s nuclear capabilities — the pause in hostilities may prove temporary.

    Mutual deterrence may prevent a more protracted war for now, but the balance remains precarious and could collapse with little warning.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Will the fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel hold? One factor could be crucial to it sticking – https://theconversation.com/will-the-fragile-ceasefire-between-iran-and-israel-hold-one-factor-could-be-crucial-to-it-sticking-259669

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ramzy Baroud: The fallout – winners and losers from the Israeli war on Iran

    COMMENTARY: By Ramzy Baroud, editor of The Palestinian Chronicle

    The conflict between Israel and Iran over the past 12 days has redefined the regional chessboard. Here is a look at their key takeaways:

    Israel:
    Pulled in the US: Israel successfully drew the United States into a direct military confrontation with Iran, setting a significant precedent for future direct (not just indirect) intervention.

    Boosted political capital: This move generated substantial political leverage, allowing Israel to frame US intervention as a major strategic success.

    Iran:
    Forged a new deterrence: Iran has firmly established a new equation of deterrence, emerging as a powerful regional force capable of directly challenging Israel, the US, and their Western allies.

    Demonstrated independence: Crucially, Iran achieved this without relying on its traditional regional allies, showcasing its self-reliance and strategic depth.

    Defeated regime change efforts: This confrontation effectively thwarted any perceived Israeli strategy aimed at regime change, solidifying the current Iranian government’s position.

    Achieved national unity: In the face of external pressure, Iran saw a notable surge in domestic unity, bridging the gap between reformers and conservatives in a new social and political contract.

    Asserted direct regional role: Iran has definitively cemented its status as a direct and undeniable player in the ongoing regional struggle against Israeli hegemony.

    Sent a global message: It delivered a strong message to non-Western global powers like China and Russia, proving itself a reliable regional force capable of challenging and reshaping the existing balance of power.

    Exposed regional dynamics: The events sharply exposed Arab and Muslim countries that openly or tacitly support the US-Israeli regional project of dominance, highlighting underlying regional alignments.

    Dr Ramzy Baroud is a journalist, author and editor of The Palestine Chronicle. He is the author of The Last Earth: A Palestinian Story (Pluto Press, London). He has a PhD in Palestine Studies from the University of Exeter (2015) and was a Non-Resident Scholar at Orfalea Center for Global and International Studies, University of California Santa Barbara. This commentary is republished from his Facebook page.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Iran and Israel agree to a fragile ceasefire. One factor could be crucial to it sticking

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    Amir Levy/Getty Images

    After 12 days of war, US President Donald Trump has announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran that would bring to an end the most dramatic, direct conflict between the two nations in decades.

    Israel and Iran both agreed to adhere to the ceasefire, though they said they would respond with force to any breach.

    If the ceasefire holds – a big if – the key question will be whether this signals the start of lasting peace, or merely a brief pause before renewed conflict.

    As contemporary war studies show, peace tends to endure under one of two conditions: either the total defeat of one side, or the establishment of mutual deterrence. This means both parties refrain from aggression because the expected costs of retaliation far outweigh any potential gains.

    What did each side gain?

    The war marked a turning point for Israel in its decades-long confrontation with Iran. For the first time, Israel successfully brought a prolonged battle to Iranian soil, shifting the conflict from confrontations with Iranian-backed proxy militant groups to direct strikes on Iran itself.

    This was made possible largely due to Israel’s success over the past two years in weakening Iran’s regional proxy network, particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon and Shiite militias in Syria.

    Over the past two weeks, Israel has inflicted significant damage on Iran’s military and scientific elite, killing several high-ranking commanders and nuclear scientists. The civilian toll was also high.

    Additionally, Israel achieved a major strategic objective by pulling the United States directly into the conflict. In coordination with Israel, the US launched strikes on three of Iran’s primary nuclear facilities: Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.

    Despite these gains, Israel did not accomplish all of its stated goals. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had voiced support for regime change, urging Iranians to rise up against Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s government, but the senior leadership in Iran remains intact.

    Additionally, Israel did not fully eliminate Iran’s missile program, as Iran continued striking to the last minute before the ceasefire. And Tehran did not acquiesce to Trump’s pre-war demand to end uranium enrichment.

    Although Iran was caught off-guard by Israel’s attacks — particularly as it was engaged in nuclear negotiations with the US — it responded by launching hundreds of missiles towards Israel.

    While many were intercepted, a significant number penetrated Israeli air defences, causing widespread destruction in major cities, dozens of fatalities and hundreds of injuries.

    Iran demonstrated its capacity to strike back, though Israel succeeded in destroying many of its air defence systems, some ballistic missile assets (including missile launchers) and multiple energy facilities.

    Since the beginning of the assault, Iranian officials have repeatedly called for a halt to resume negotiations. Under intense pressure, Iran realised it would not benefit from a prolonged war of attrition with Israel — especially as both nations faced mounting costs and the risk of depleting their military stockpiles if the war continued.

    As theories of victory suggest, success in war is defined not only by the damage inflicted, but by achieving core strategic goals and weakening the enemy’s will and capacity to resist.

    While Israel claims to have achieved the bulk of its objectives, the extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program is not fully known, nor is its capacity to continue enriching uranium.

    Both sides could remain locked in a volatile standoff over Iran’s nuclear program, with the conflict potentially reigniting whenever either side perceives a strategic opportunity.

    Sticking point over Iran’s nuclear program

    Iran faces even greater challenges as it emerges from the war. With a heavy toll on its leadership and nuclear infrastructure, Tehran will likely prioritise rebuilding its deterrence capability.

    That includes acquiring new advanced air defence systems — potentially from China — and restoring key components of its missile and nuclear programs. (Some experts say Iran did not use some of its most powerful missiles to maintain this deterrence.)

    Iranian officials have claimed they safeguarded more than 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium before the attacks. This stockpile could theoretically be converted into nine to ten nuclear warheads if further enriched to 90%.

    Trump declared Iran’s nuclear capacity had been “totally obliterated”, whereas Rafael Grossi, the United Nations’ nuclear watchdog chief, said damage to Iran’s facilities was “very significant”.

    However, analysts have argued Iran will still have a depth of technical knowledge accumulated over decades. Depending on the extent of the damage to its underground facilities, Iran could be capable of restoring and even accelerating its program in a relatively short time frame.

    And the chances of reviving negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program appear slimmer than ever.

    What might future deterrence look like?

    The war has fundamentally reshaped how both Iran and Israel perceive deterrence — and how they plan to secure it going forward.

    For Iran, the conflict reinforced the belief that its survival is at stake. With regime change openly discussed during the war, Iran’s leaders appear more convinced than ever that true deterrence requires two key pillars: nuclear weapons capability, and deeper strategic alignment with China and Russia.

    As a result, Iran is expected to move rapidly to restore and advance its nuclear program, potentially moving towards actual weaponisation — a step it had long avoided, officially.

    At the same time, Tehran is likely to accelerate military and economic cooperation with Beijing and Moscow to hedge against isolation. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasised this close engagement with Russia during a visit to Moscow this week, particularly on nuclear matters.

    Israel, meanwhile, sees deterrence as requiring constant vigilance and a credible threat of overwhelming retaliation. In the absence of diplomatic breakthroughs, Israel may adopt a policy of immediate preemptive strikes on Iranian facilities or leadership figures if it detects any new escalation — particularly related to Iran’s nuclear program.

    In this context, the current ceasefire appears fragile. Without comprehensive negotiations that address the core issues — namely, Iran’s nuclear capabilities — the pause in hostilities may prove temporary.

    Mutual deterrence may prevent a more protracted war for now, but the balance remains precarious and could collapse with little warning.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Iran and Israel agree to a fragile ceasefire. One factor could be crucial to it sticking – https://theconversation.com/iran-and-israel-agree-to-a-fragile-ceasefire-one-factor-could-be-crucial-to-it-sticking-259669

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trouble getting out of bed? Signs the ‘winter blues’ may be something more serious

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kelvin (Shiu Fung) Wong, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Psychology, Swinburne University of Technology

    Justin Paget/Getty

    Winter is here. As the days grow shorter and the skies turn darker, you might start to feel a bit “off”. You may notice a dip in your mood or energy levels. Maybe you’re less motivated to do things you previously enjoyed in the warmer months.

    The “winter blues” can feel like an inevitable part of life. You might feel sluggish or less social, but you can still get on with your day.

    However, if your winter blues are making everyday life difficult and interfering with your work and relationships, it could be the sign of something more serious.

    Seasonal affective disorder is more than a seasonal slump – it’s a recognised psychiatric condition. Here’s what to look for and how to get help.

    What is seasonal affective disorder?

    The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders officially recognises seasonal affective disorder as a recurrent major depressive disorder “with seasonal pattern”.

    In other words, the condition shares many symptoms with major depressive disorder, but it also follows a seasonal rhythm. While this might be most common in winter, the disorder can also occur in summer.

    Symptoms include:

    • persistent low mood or feelings of sadness

    • loss of interest in activities you once enjoyed

    • low energy and fatigue, even after lots of sleep

    • changes in appetite

    • weight gain or weight loss

    • difficulty concentrating

    • sleeping more or less than usual

    • feelings of hopelessness or worthlessness

    • in some cases, thoughts of self-harm or suicide.

    Research suggests seasonal affective disorder affects up to 10% of the global population.

    Although it can affect anyone, it is more common in women, people aged between 18 and 30 years, and those living far from the equator, where winter daylight hours are especially limited.

    A review of the Australian research on seasonal affective disorder showed the highest proportion of Australians with seasonal affective disorder was found in the most southern state, Tasmania (9% of the population).

    What causes it?

    Unfortunately, the exact cause of seasonal affective disorder is still poorly understood.

    Some theories propose it is primarily caused by a lack of light in the environment, although we are not exactly sure how this leads to depression.

    As sunlight is responsible for the production of vitamin D, some have suggested a lack of vitamin D is what causes depression. However, the evidence for such a link is inconclusive.

    Others suggest a lack of light in winter delays the circadian rhythms which regulate our sleep/wake cycle. Poor sleep is related to many mental health difficulties, including depression.

    Seasonal affective disorder can be treated

    Fortunately, there are several evidence-based treatments for seasonal affective disorder. Relief may be found through a combination of approaches.

    Bright light therapy is usually the first treatment recommended for seasonal affective disorder. It involves sitting near a specially designed lightbox (with a strength of 10,000 lux) for about 20 to 30 minutes a day to mimic natural sunlight and help regulate the body’s internal clock.

    Cognitive behavioural therapy aims to help people develop some flexibility around the negative thoughts that might maintain seasonal affective disorder symptoms (for example, “I am worthless because I never get up to anything meaningful in winter”).

    Lifestyle changes such as regular exercise, time spent outdoors (even on gloomy days), a balanced diet, and good sleep hygiene can all support recovery.

    Antidepressants – especially selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) – may be prescribed when symptoms are moderate to severe, or when other treatments have not worked.

    What else helps?

    Even those without seasonal affective disorder might need to fight the winter blues. So, what works?

    Prioritise social connection

    Schedule regular, achievable and pleasant activities with friends, such as trivia at the pub or a brisk walk.

    Reframe winter

    Rather than dreading the cold, see if you can embrace what is special about this time of year. The mindset of “hygge” (a Danish and Norwegian term for cosiness and contentment) may help.

    Let winter be your excuse for snuggling on your couch with a thick blanket and hot chocolate while catching up on books and TV shows. Or see if there are any winter-specific activities (such as night markets) where you live.

    Maximise daylight

    Taking a walk during lunchtime when the sun is out, even briefly, can make a difference.

    The bottom line

    If your “winter blues” last more than two weeks, start interfering with your daily life or feel overwhelming, then it might be time to seek professional help.

    Speaking to your GP or mental health professional can help you get support early and prevent symptoms getting worse.

    Kelvin (Shiu Fung) Wong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trouble getting out of bed? Signs the ‘winter blues’ may be something more serious – https://theconversation.com/trouble-getting-out-of-bed-signs-the-winter-blues-may-be-something-more-serious-259375

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: eSafety boss wants YouTube included in the social media ban. But AI raises even more concerns for kids

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tama Leaver, Professor of Internet Studies, Curtin University

    Irina WS/Shutterstock

    Julie Inman Grant, Australia’s eSafety Commissioner, today addressed the National Press Club to outline how her office will be driving the Social Media Minimum Age Bill when it comes into effect in December this year.

    The bill, often referred to as a social media ban, prevents under-16s having social media accounts. But Inman Grant wants Australians to consider the bill a “social media delay” rather than a ban.

    When the ban was legislated in November 2024, the federal government carved out an exemption for YouTube, citing the platform’s educational purpose.

    Inman Grant has now advised the government to remove this exemption because of the harm young people can experience on YouTube. But as she has also pointed out, there are new risks for young people that the ban won’t address – especially from generative artificial intelligence (AI).

    Banning YouTube

    According to eSafety’s new research, 37% of young people have encountered harmful content on YouTube. This was the highest percentage of any platform.

    In her speech, Inman Grant argued YouTube had “mastered persuasive design”, being adept at using algorithms and recommendations to keep young people scrolling, and that exempting YouTube from the ban simply makes no sense in her eyes.

    Her advice to Communications Minister Anika Wells, which she delivered last week, is to not exempt YouTube, effectively including that platform in the ban’s remit.

    Unsurprisingly, YouTube Australia and New Zealand has responded with vigour. In a statement published today, the Google-owned company argues that

    eSafety’s advice goes against the government’s own commitment, its own research on community sentiment, independent research, and the view of key stakeholders in this debate.

    YouTube denies it is a social media platform and claims the advice it should be included in the ban is “inconsistent and contradictory”.

    But given YouTube’s Shorts looks and feels very similar to TikTok, with shorter vertical videos in an endlessly scrolling feed, exempting YouTube while banning TikTok and Instagram’s Reels never appeared logically consistent.

    It also remains the case that any public YouTube video can be viewed without a YouTube account. The argument that including YouTube in the ban would stop educational uses, then, doesn’t carry a lot of weight.

    How will the ban work?

    Inman Grant took great care to emphasise that the responsibility for making the ban work lies with the technology giants and platforms.

    Young people who get around the ban, or parents and carers who help them, will not be penalised.

    A raft of different tools and technologies to infer the age of users have been explored by the platforms and by other age verification and assurance vendors.

    Australia’s Age Assurance Technology Trial released preliminary findings last week. But these findings really amounted to no more than a press release.

    No technical details were shared, only high-level statements that the trial revealed age-assurance technologies could work.

    These early findings did reveal that the trial “did not find a single ubiquitous solution that would suit all use cases”. This suggests there isn’t a single age-assurance tool that’s completely reliable.

    If these tools are going to be one of the main gatekeepers that do or don’t allow Australians to access online platforms, complete reliability would be desirable.

    Concerns about AI

    Quite rightly, Inman Grant opened her speech by flagging the emerging harms that will not actually be addressed by new legislation. Generative AI was at the top of the list.

    Unregulated use of AI companions and bots was of particular concern, with young people forming deep attachments to these tools, sometimes in harmful ways.

    Generative AI has also made the creation of deepfake images and videos much easier, making it far too easy for young people to be harmed, and to cause real harm to each other.

    As a recent report I coauthored from the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child highlights, there are many pressing issues in terms of how children and young people use and experience generative AI in their everyday lives.

    For example, despite the tendency of these tools to glitch and fabricate information, they are increasingly being used in place of search engines for basic information gathering, life advice and even mental health support.

    There are larger challenges around protecting young people’s privacy when using these tools, even when compared to the already privacy-averse social media platforms.

    There are many new opportunities with AI, but also many new risks.

    With generative AI being relatively new, and changing rapidly, more research is urgently needed to find the safest and most appropriate ways for AI to be part of young people’s lives.

    What happens in December?

    Social media users under 16, and their parents and carers, need to prepare for changes in young people’s online experiences this December when the ban is due to begin.

    The exact platforms included in the ban, and the exact mechanisms to gauge the age of Australia users, are still being discussed.

    The eSafety Commissioner has made her case today to include more platforms, not fewer. Yet Wells has already acknowledged that

    social media age-restrictions will not be the end-all be-all solution for harms experienced by young people online but they will make a significant impact.

    Concerns remain about the ban cutting young people off from community and support, including mental health support. There is clearly work to be done on that front.

    Nor does the ban explicitly address concerns about cyberbullying, which Inman Grant said has recently “intensified”, with messaging applications at this stage still not likely to be included in the list of banned services.

    It’s also clear some young people will find ways to circumvent the ban. For parents and carers, keeping the door open so young people can discuss their online experiences will be vital to supporting young Australians and keeping them safe.

    Tama Leaver receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is a chief investigator in the ARC Centre of Excellence for the Digital Child.

    – ref. eSafety boss wants YouTube included in the social media ban. But AI raises even more concerns for kids – https://theconversation.com/esafety-boss-wants-youtube-included-in-the-social-media-ban-but-ai-raises-even-more-concerns-for-kids-259561

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The war won’t end Iran’s nuclear program – it will drive it underground, following North Korea’s model

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Burke, Professor of Environmental Politics & International Relations, UNSW Sydney

    The United States’ and Israel’s strikes on Iran are concerning, and not just for the questionable legal justifications provided by both governments.

    Even if their attacks cause severe damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities, this will only harden Iran’s resolve to acquire a bomb.

    And if Iran follows through on its threat to pull out of the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), this will gravely damage the global nuclear nonproliferation regime.

    In a decade of international security crises, this could be the most serious. Is there still time to prevent this from happening?

    A successful but vulnerable treaty

    In May 2015, I attended the five-yearly review conference of the NPT. Delegates debated a draft outcome for weeks, and then, not for the first time, went home with nothing. Delegates from the US, United Kingdom and Canada blocked the final outcome to prevent words being added that would call for Israel to attend a disarmament conference.

    Russia did the same in 2022 in protest at language on its illegal occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in Ukraine.

    Now, in the latest challenge to the NPT, Israel and the US have bombed Iran’s nuclear complexes to ostensibly enforce a treaty neither one respects.

    When the treaty was adopted in 1968, it allowed the five nuclear-armed states at the time – the US, Soviet Union, France, UK and China – to join if they committed not to pass weapons or material to other states, and to disarm themselves.

    All other members had to pledge never to acquire nuclear weapons. Newer nuclear powers were not permitted to join unless they gave up their weapons.

    Israel declined to join, as it had developed its own undeclared nuclear arsenal by the late 1960s. India, Pakistan and South Sudan have also never signed; North Korea was a member but withdrew in 2003. Only South Sudan does not have nuclear weapons today.

    To make the obligations enforceable and strengthen safeguards against the diversion of nuclear material to non-nuclear weapons states, members were later required to sign the IAEA Additional Protocol. This gave the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) wide powers to inspect a state’s nuclear facilities and detect violations.

    It was the IAEA that first blew the whistle on Iran’s concerning uranium enrichment activity in 2003. Just before Israel’s attacks this month, the organisation also reported Iran was in breach of its obligations under the NPT for the first time in two decades.

    The NPT is arguably the world’s most universal, important and successful security treaty, but it is also paradoxically vulnerable.

    The treaty’s underlying consensus has been damaged by the failure of the five nuclear-weapon states to disarm as required, and by the failure to prevent North Korea from developing a now formidable nuclear arsenal.

    North Korea withdrew from the treaty in 2003, tested a weapon in 2006, and now may have up to 50 warheads.

    Iran could be next.

    How things can deteriorate from here

    Iran argues Israel’s attacks have undermined the credibility of the IAEA, given Israel used the IAEA’s new report on Iran as a pretext for its strikes, taking the matter out of the hands of the UN Security Council.

    For its part, the IAEA has maintained a principled position and criticised both the US and Israeli strikes.

    Iran has retaliated with its own missile strikes against both Israel and a US base in Qatar. In addition, it wasted no time announcing it would withdraw from the NPT.

    On June 23, an Iranian parliament committee also approved a bill that would fully suspend Iran’s cooperation with the IAEA, including allowing inspections and submitting reports to the organisation.

    Iran’s envoy to the IAEA, Reza Najafi, said the US strikes:

    […] delivered a fundamental and irreparable blow to the international non-proliferation regime conclusively demonstrating that the existing NPT framework has been rendered ineffective.

    Even if Israel and the US consider their bombing campaign successful, it has almost certainly renewed the Iranians’ resolve to build a weapon. The strikes may only delay an Iranian bomb by a few years.

    Iran will have two paths to do so. The slower path would be to reconstitute its enrichment activity and obtain nuclear implosion designs, which create extremely devastating weapons, from Russia or North Korea.

    Alternatively, Russia could send Iran some of its weapons. This should be a real concern given Moscow’s cascade of withdrawals from critical arms control agreements over the last decade.

    An Iranian bomb could then trigger NPT withdrawals by other regional states, especially Saudi Arabia, who suddenly face a new threat to their security.

    Why Iran might now pursue a bomb

    Iran’s support for Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria’s Assad regime certainly shows it is a dangerous international actor. Iranian leaders have also long used alarming rhetoric about Israel’s destruction.

    However repugnant the words, Israeli and US conservatives have misjudged Iran’s motives in seeking nuclear weapons.

    Israel fears an Iranian bomb would be an existential threat to its survival, given Iran’s promises to destroy it. But this neglects the fact that Israel already possesses a potent (if undeclared) nuclear deterrent capability.

    Israeli anxieties about an Iranian bomb should not be dismissed. But other analysts (myself included) see Iran’s desire for nuclear weapons capability more as a way to establish deterrence to prevent future military attacks from Israel and the US to protect their regime.

    Iranians were shaken by Iraq’s invasion in 1980 and then again by the US-led removal of Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein in 2003. This war with Israel and the US will shake them even more.

    Last week, I felt that if the Israeli bombing ceased, a new diplomatic effort to bring Iran into compliance with the IAEA and persuade it to abandon its program might have a chance.

    However, the US strikes may have buried that possibility for decades. And by then, the damage to the nonproliferation regime could be irreversible.

    Anthony Burke received funding from the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council for a project on global nuclear governance (2014–17).

    – ref. The war won’t end Iran’s nuclear program – it will drive it underground, following North Korea’s model – https://theconversation.com/the-war-wont-end-irans-nuclear-program-it-will-drive-it-underground-following-north-koreas-model-259281

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A carbon levy on global shipping promises to slash emissions. We calculated what that means for Australia’s biggest export

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Brear, Director, Melbourne Energy Institute, The University of Melbourne

    Costfoto/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    Moving people and things around the world by sea has a big climate impact. The shipping industry produces almost 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions – roughly the same as Germany – largely due to the movement of container ships, bulk carriers and tankers.

    Under international rules, these emissions are not included in any nation’s greenhouse gas reporting. That means they often escape scrutiny.

    Unlike cars, international shipping can’t shift to using low-emissions electricity – the batteries required are too big and heavy. So clean fuels must play a role.

    A proposed shake-up of the global shipping industry would encourage the use of clean fuels and penalise shipping companies that stick to cheaper, more polluting fuels. Should it proceed, emissions from global shipping would be regulated for the first time.

    Using our peer-reviewed modelling, we investigated how the changes might affect Australia’s largest export: iron ore.

    What is the proposed carbon levy all about?

    The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) is the United Nations body responsible for regulating international shipping. It recently approved a draft plan to tackle the shipping sector’s contribution to climate change through a type of “cap and trade” scheme.

    The plan would involve setting a limit, or cap, on how much each shipping company can emit. Companies must then either buy credits or be penalised if they go over their limit. Companies that stay under their limit – for example, by using cleaner fuels – would earn credits, which they could then sell.

    In this way, high-emitting shipping companies are penalised and low-emitting companies are rewarded.

    Under the plan, the total limit for emissions from global shipping would fall each year. This increases the incentive for companies to switch to lower emission fuels and makes higher-emission fuels progressively more expensive to use.

    The plan is scheduled to be adopted by the shipping industry in October this year and would begin in 2027.

    Not all fuels are the same

    The proposed change is particularly significant for Australia. As a remote island nation, our imports and exports are heavily reliant on massive ships. This is most important for our commodity exports – iron ore in particular.

    Our recently published modelling estimated the emissions and financial impacts of various low-emission shipping options for Australia’s exports.

    We estimated Australia’s commodity exports create about 34 million tonnes of greenhouse gases a year. This is about 8% of Australia’s domestic greenhouse gas emissions, but it’s not included in Australia’s national reporting.

    Using the same modelling, we then examined how the proposed new regulation would affect the cost of shipping Australia’s largest export, iron ore. We chose a common route from Port Hedland in Western Australia to Shanghai in China.

    First, we looked at current fuel costs, as well as overall shipping costs measured per tonne of delivered ore. Shipping costs include both the fuel costs and the cost of the ships designed to use it. Then we estimated how much fuels and shipping might cost from 2030, assuming the proposed regulation has come into force.

    We also examined three types of fuel.

    The first was heavy fuel oil (HFO), one of the main fuels used in international shipping. It’s traditionally the cheapest shipping fuel and also has the highest greenhouse gas emissions.

    The second was “blue” ammonia. This fuel is typically made from natural gas using a manufacturing process where the carbon in the natural gas is captured and stored. It has lower greenhouse gas emissions than heavy fuel oil, but it is not a “green” fuel.

    Thirdly, we looked at “green” ammonia, which is produced using renewable energy. We examined two types of green ammonia – that produced using current technology, and “advanced” green ammonia, made using new technologies in development.

    Is green ammonia an answer?

    From about 2030, the overall cost of shipping powered by heavy fuel oil will start to rise significantly under the proposed regulation. That’s because shipping companies using this fuel must purchase credits from those using cleaner options.

    Blue ammonia may then make it cheaper to ship iron ore from Australia to Asia. Users of this fuel could generate and sell credits that higher-emitting fuel users buy, offsetting some of the shipping costs associated with using blue ammonia.

    But if international shipping is to reach the IMO’s goal of net-zero emissions by about 2050, this is very likely to require a green fuel.

    However, green ammonia is more expensive than heavy fuel oil and blue ammonia with current technology. And our analysis found the proposed regulation – and associated subsidy – doesn’t make it the lowest cost shipping option from 2030 onwards either.

    This is why technological innovation is important. CSIRO projections of the future costs of renewable energy and green-fuel manufacture suggest that, should technologies improve, green ammonia may compete on cost with heavy-fuel oil in the 2030s, even without subsidies.

    If so, this zero-emission fuel could become the cheapest way to export Australian iron ore.

    Looking ahead to net-zero

    As our calculations show, a combination of regulation and innovation could help international shipping achieve its goal of net-zero emissions.

    These fuels could be made in Australia, and potentially used by other industries such as rail, mining, road freight and even aviation.

    Such an industry would therefore contribute significantly to the world’s emission-reduction goals, and could help Australia realise its ambition to become a major global exporter of green fuels and other green products.

    Michael Brear receives research funding from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, the Australian Research Council, the Future Energy Exports CRC and the Clean Marine Fuel Institute. He also receives funding from other government and industry organisations for work on other aspects of energy and transport decarbonisation.

    Gerhard (Gerry) F. Swiegers is an ARC Industry Laureate Fellow and the Chief Technology Officer of Hysata. Hysata is a manufacturer of electrolysers which are used for green hydrogen manufacture. Green hydrogen is a key feedstock for the manufacture of green ammonia.

    Michael Leslie Johns receives funding from the ARC and Future Energy Exports CRC.

    Nguyen Cao receives funding from the Future Energy Exports CRC and the Clean Marine Fuel Institute.

    Rose Amal is the leader of the Particles and Catalysis Research Group, Co-Director of ARC Training Centre for the Global Hydrogen Economy and the Lead of the PowerFuels Network under NSW Decarbonisation Innovation Hub. Rose receives funding from Australian Research Council (ARC) and Department of Industry, Science, Energy and Resources, Department of Education (Trailblazer Recycling and Clean Energy program), ARENA and NSW Environmental Trust. She was an ARC Laureate Fellow.

    – ref. A carbon levy on global shipping promises to slash emissions. We calculated what that means for Australia’s biggest export – https://theconversation.com/a-carbon-levy-on-global-shipping-promises-to-slash-emissions-we-calculated-what-that-means-for-australias-biggest-export-258915

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hauntingly familiar? Why comparing the US strikes on Iran to Iraq in 2003 is off target

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Isakhan, Professor of International Politics, Deakin University

    HECTOR MATA/AFP via Getty Images

    On June 21, the United States launched airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities – Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan – pounding deeply buried centrifuge sites with bunker-busting bombs.

    Conducted jointly with Israel, the operation took place without formal congressional authorisation, drawing sharp criticism from lawmakers that it was unconstitutional and “unlawful”.



    Read more:
    Why the US strikes on Iran are illegal and can set a troubling precedent

    Much of the political debate has centred on whether the US is being pulled into “another Middle East war”.

    The New York Times’ Nick Kristof weighed in on the uncertainties following the US’ surprise bombing of Iran and Tehran’s retaliation.

    Even US Vice President JD Vance understood the unease, stating:

    People are right to be worried about foreign entanglement after the last 25 years of idiotic foreign policy.

    These reactions have revived comparisons with George W. Bush’s 2003 invasion of Iraq: a Republican president launching military action on the basis of flimsy weapons of mass destruction (WMD) evidence.

    Hauntingly familiar?

    While the surface similarity is tempting, the comparison may in fact obscure more about President Donald Trump than it reveals.

    Comparisons to the Iraq War

    In 2003, Bush ordered a full-scale invasion of Iraq based on flawed intelligence, claiming Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein possessed WMDs. And while the war was extremely unpopular across the world, it did have bipartisan congressional support.

    The invasion toppled Iraq’s regime in just a few weeks.

    What followed was a brutal conflict and almost a decade of US occupation. The war triggered the rise of militant jihadism and a horrific sectarian conflict that reverberates today.

    So far, Trump’s one-off strikes on Iran bear little resemblance to the 2003 Iraq intervention.

    These were precision strikes within the context of a broader Iran-Israel war, designed to target Iran’s nuclear program.

    And, so far, there appears to be little appetite for a full-scale military invasion or “boots on the ground”, and regime change seems unlikely despite some rumblings from both Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

    Yet the comparison to Iraq persists, especially among audiences suspicious of repeated US military interventions in the Middle East. But poorly considered analogies carry costs.

    For one, the Iraq comparison sheds little light on Trump’s foreign policy.



    Read more:
    The US has entered the Israel-Iran war. Here are 3 scenarios for what might happen next

    Trump’s foreign policy

    To better understand the recent strikes on Iran, we need to look at Trump’s broader foreign policy.

    Much has been made of his “America first” mantra, a complex mix of prioritising domestic interests, questioning international agreements, and challenging traditional alliances.

    Others, including Trump himself, have often touted his “no war” approach, pointing to large-scale military withdrawals from Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq,and the fact he had not started a new war.

    But beyond this, Trump has increased US military spending and frequently used his office to conduct targeted strikes on adversaries – especially across the Middle East.

    For example, in 2017 and 2018, Trump ordered airstrikes on a Syrian airbase and chemical weapons facilities. In both instances, he bypassed Congress and used precision air power to target weapons infrastructure without pursuing regime change.

    Also, from 2017 to 2021, Trump authorised US support for the Saudi-led war in Yemen, enabling airstrikes that targeted militant cells but also led to mass civilian casualties.

    Trump’s policy was the subject of intense bipartisan opposition, culminating in the first successful congressional invocation of the War Powers Resolution – though it was ultimately vetoed by Trump.

    And in 2020, Trump launched a sequence of attacks on Iranian assets in Iraq. This included a drone strike that killed senior Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani.

    Again, these attacks were conducted without congressional support. The decision triggered intense bipartisan backlash and concerns about escalation without oversight.

    While such attacks are not without precedent – think back to former US President Barack Obama’s intervention in Libya or Joe Biden’s targeting of terrorist assets – the scale and veracity of Trump’s attacks on the Middle East are much more useful as a framework to understanding the recent attacks on Iran than any reference to the 2003 Iraq war.

    What this reveals about Trump

    It is crucial to scrutinise any use of force. But while comparing the 2025 Iran strikes to Iraq in 2003 may be rhetorically powerful, it is analytically weak.

    A better path is to situate these events within Trump’s broader political style.

    He acts unilaterally and with near-complete impunity, disregarding traditional constraints and operating outside established norms and oversight.

    This is just as true for attacks on foreign adversaries as it is for the domestic policy arena.

    For example, Trump recently empowered agencies such as Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to operate with sweeping discretion in immigration enforcement, bypassing legal and judicial oversight.

    Trump also uses policy as spectacle, designed to send shockwaves through the domestic or foreign arenas and project dominance to both friend and foe.

    In this way, Trump’s dramatic attacks on Iran have some parallels to his unilateral imposition of tariffs on international trade. Both are abrupt, disruptive and framed as a demonstration of strength rather than a way to create a mutually beneficial solution.

    Finally, Trump is more than willing to use force as an instrument of power rather than as a last resort. This is just as true for Iran as it is for the US people.

    The recent deployment of US Marines to quell protests in Los Angeles reveals a similar impulse: military intervention as a first instinct in the absence of a broader strategy to foster peace.

    To truly understand and respond to Trump’s Iran strikes, we need to move beyond sensationalist analogies and recognise a more dangerous reality. This is not the start of another Iraq; it’s the continuation of a presidency defined by impulsive power, unchecked force and a growing disdain for democratic constraint.

    Benjamin Isakhan receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Department of Defence. The views expressed in this article do not reflect those of Government policy.

    – ref. Hauntingly familiar? Why comparing the US strikes on Iran to Iraq in 2003 is off target – https://theconversation.com/hauntingly-familiar-why-comparing-the-us-strikes-on-iran-to-iraq-in-2003-is-off-target-259668

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Iran’s internet blackout left people in the dark. How does a country shut down the internet?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mohiuddin Ahmed, Senior Lecturer of Computing and Security, Edith Cowan University

    Dylan Carr/Unsplash

    In recent days, Iranians experienced a near-complete internet blackout, with local service providers – including mobile services – repeatedly going offline. Iran’s government has cited cyber security concerns for ordering the shutdown.

    Shutting off the internet within an entire country is a serious action. It severely limits people’s ability to freely communicate and to find reliable information during times of conflict.

    In countries that have privatised mobile and internet providers, control is often exercised through legislation or through government directives – such as age restrictions on adult content. By contrast, Iran has spent years developing the capacity to directly control its telecommunications infrastructure.

    So how can a country have broad control over internet access, and could this happen anywhere in the world?

    How does ‘blocking the internet’ work?

    The “internet” is a broad term. It covers many types of applications, services and, of course, the websites we’re familiar with.

    There’s a range of ways to control access to internet services, but broadly speaking, there are two “simple” methods a nation could use to block citizens’ internet access.

    Hardware

    A nation may opt to physically disconnect the incoming internet connectivity at the point of entry to the country (imagine pulling the plug on a telephone exchange).

    This allows for easy recovery of service when the government is ready, but the impact will be far-reaching. Nobody in the country, including the government itself, will be able to connect to the internet – unless the government has its own additional, covert connectivity to the rest of the world.



    Read more:
    Undersea cables are the unseen backbone of the global internet

    Software and configuration

    This is where it gets more technical. Every internet-connected endpoint – laptop, computer, mobile phone – has an IP (internet protocol) address. They’re strings of numbers; for example, 77.237.87.95 is an address assigned to one of the internet service providers in Iran.

    IP addresses identify the device on the public internet. However, since strings of numbers are not easy to remember, humans use domain names to connect to services – theconversation.com is an example of a domain name.

    That connection between the IP address and the domain is controlled by the domain name system or DNS. It’s possible for a government to control access to key internet services by modifying the DNS – this manipulates the connection between domain names and their underlying numeric addresses.

    An additional way to control the internet involves manipulating the traffic flow. IP addresses allow devices to send and receive data across networks controlled by internet service providers. In turn, they rely on the border gateway protocol (BGP) – think of it like a series of traffic signs which direct internet traffic flow, allowing data to move around the world.

    Governments could force local internet service providers to remove their BGP routes from the internet. As a result, the devices they service wouldn’t be able to connect to the internet. In the same manner, the rest of the world would no longer be able to “see” into the country.



    Read more:
    Internet shutdowns: here’s how governments do it

    How common is this?

    In dozens of countries around the world, the internet is either routinely controlled or has been shut down in response to major incidents.

    A recent example is a wide-scale internet blackout in Bangladesh in July 2024 during student-led protests against government job quotas.

    In 2023, Senegal limited internet access to handle violent protests that erupted over the sentencing of a political leader. In 2020, India imposed a lengthy internet blackout on the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir. In 2011, the Egyptian government withdrew BGP routes to address civil unrest.

    These events clearly show that if a government anywhere in the world wants to turn off the internet, it really can. The democratic state of the country is the most significant influence on the willingness to undertake such action – not the technical capability.

    However, in today’s world, being disconnected from the internet will heavily impact people’s lives, jobs and the economy. It’s not an action to be taken lightly.

    How can people evade internet controls?

    Virtual private networks or VPNs have long been used to hide communications in countries with strict internet controls, and continue to be an effective internet access method for many people. (However, there are indications Iran has clamped down on VPN use in recent times.)

    However, VPNs won’t help when the internet is physically disconnected. Depending on configuration, if BGP routes are blocked, this may also prevent any VPN traffic from reaching the target.

    This is where independent satellite internet services open up the most reliable alternative. Satellite internet is great for remote and rural areas where traditional internet service providers have yet to establish their cabling infrastructure – or can’t do so.

    Even if traditional wired or wireless internet connections are unavailable, services such as Starlink, Viasat, Hughesnet and others can provide internet access through satellites orbiting Earth.

    To use satellite internet, users rely on antenna kits supplied by providers. In Iran, Elon Musk’s Starlink was activated during the blackout, and independent reports suggest there are thousands of Starlink receivers secretly operating in the country.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Iran’s internet blackout left people in the dark. How does a country shut down the internet? – https://theconversation.com/irans-internet-blackout-left-people-in-the-dark-how-does-a-country-shut-down-the-internet-259546

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Baths, wine, and sex make life worth living’: how ancient Romans used public baths to relax, work out and socialise

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Edwell, Associate Professor in Ancient History, Macquarie University

    iLongLoveKing/Shutterstock

    Standing in the vast ruins of the Baths of Caracalla in Rome, hundreds of gulls circle above. Their haunting cries echo voices from 1,800 years ago. Today, the bare shell of what was one of Rome’s largest bath complexes mostly sits empty, occasionally playing host to opera performances.

    But what were the baths of ancient Rome actually like back then? And why were the Romans so into public bathing?

    Public baths everywhere

    While living in Rome for almost a year, I noticed the remains of ancient baths (thermae in Latin) everywhere.

    Virtually every emperor built them, and by the middle of the fourth century there were 952 public baths in the city.

    The largest were the baths built by the emperor Diocletian (284–305). Around 3,000 people a day could bathe at this 13-hectare complex.

    These baths, like most, contained a room (the caldarium) heated by air ducts in the walls and floors. The floors were so hot special sandals were worn.

    Another room leading from it was milder (the tepidarium), before bathers entered the frigidarium, which contained a cold pool. A 4,000-square-metre outdoor swimming pool was the central feature.

    Public baths also often featured gymnasiums, libraries, restaurants and exercise yards.

    Today, the baths of Caracalla mostly sit empty.
    Wirestock/Getty

    ‘Baths, wine, and sex make life worth living’

    The philosopher Seneca, also an advisor to the emperor Nero, lived above a bath complex around 50 CE.

    He described the sounds of people “panting in wheezy and high-pitched tones” as they lifted weights. Others plunged into swimming tanks with a loud splash. Shop-owners selling food yelled out the prices of their wares. Some sang loudly for their own pleasure in the bathroom.

    One 4th-century CE account describes how aristocrats sometimes arrived at the baths with 50 servants attending them.

    Sections of the baths were reserved for these guests, who brought their finest clothes and expensive jewellery.

    While emperors built large public bath complexes, there were many smaller private ones. Entry fees were low and sometimes free during festivals and political campaigns. This allowed all social classes to use the baths.

    Women and men bathed separately and used the baths at different times of the day. Some bath complexes had areas designated for women only. The physician Soranus of Ephesus, who wrote a treatise on gynaecology in the second century CE, recommended women go to the baths in preparation for labour.

    In a crowded and polluted city like Rome, the baths were a haven. Warm water, smells of perfumed ointments, massages and a spa-like environment were pleasures all could indulge in.

    A first-century CE inscription declared that

    baths, wine, and sex make life worth living.

    Baths and the grim reality of slavery

    Baths were places of great social importance, and nudity allowed bathers to show off their physical prowess.

    Archaeological evidence suggests even dentistry was performed at the baths.

    Behind these images of indulgence, however, lay the grim reality of slavery. Slaves did the dirtiest work in the baths.

    They cleaned out cinders, emptied toilets and saw to the clearing of drains.

    Slaves came to the baths with their owners, whom they rubbed down with oil and cleaned their skin with strygils (a type of scraper). They entered the baths through a separate entrance.

    Baths across the empire

    Baths were popular in every city and town across the Roman Empire. A famous example is Aquae Sulis – the modern town of Bath – in England (which was under Roman rule for hundreds of years). At Aquae Sulis, a natural hot spring fed the baths. The goddess Minerva was honoured at the complex.

    The remains of similar bath complexes have been found in North Africa, Spain and Germany.

    Extensive remains of a Roman bath at Baden Baden in Germany are among the most impressive.

    Similarly, at Toledo in Spain, a public Roman bath complex measuring almost an acre has been found.

    Baths were often built in military camps to provide soldiers with comforts during their service. Remains of military baths have been found all over the empire. Researchers have found and excavated the baths for the army camp at Hadrian’s wall, a wall built to help defend the Roman Empire’s northern frontier in what is now modern Britain.

    The baths at Chester contain hot rooms (caldaria), cold rooms (frigidaria) and also a sweat room (sudatoria), which is similar to a sauna.

    A long history

    The Romans weren’t the first to use public baths. Their Greek forebears had them too. But the Romans took public bathing to a empire-wide level. It became a marker of Roman culture wherever they went.

    Public bathing would continue in the empire’s Islamic period and became famously popular under the Ottomans, who ruled the empire between 1299 and 1922. Turkish hammams (baths) remain an important public institution to this day and they descend directly from the Romans. Istanbul still contains 60 functioning hammams.

    Roman baths were not only technically ingenious and architecturally impressive, they connected people socially from all walks of life. As the gulls circle over the baths of Caracalla in Rome, their haunting cries connect us to that very world.

    Peter Edwell receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. ‘Baths, wine, and sex make life worth living’: how ancient Romans used public baths to relax, work out and socialise – https://theconversation.com/baths-wine-and-sex-make-life-worth-living-how-ancient-romans-used-public-baths-to-relax-work-out-and-socialise-257466

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Here’s why some people suffer from motion sickness – and which remedies actually work

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christian Moro, Associate Professor of Science & Medicine, Bond University

    EyeEm Mobile GmbH/Getty

    Cars may be a modern phenomenon, but motion sickness is not. More than 2,000 years ago, the physician Hippocrates wrote “sailing on the sea proves that motion disorders the body”. In fact, the word nausea derives from the Greek naus, meaning ship.

    Whether you’re in a ship, car, plane, or riding a rollercoaster, motion sickness (also called travel sickness or seasickness) can make you retch, vomit, sweat and become pale, and feel nauseated, dizzy and tired.

    For some people, watching dizzying scenes in a television show or simply thinking about moving can make us feel woozy. Playing video games or using virtual reality headsets can also lead to motion sickness (in this case, called “cybersickness”).

    But why does it happen? And why doesn’t it affect everyone?

    What is motion sickness?

    Motion sickness can happen in response to real or perceived motion.

    We don’t understand the exact mechanisms underlying motion sickness, although there are various hypotheses.

    The most accepted theory is that our brains like to know what’s going on around us. If our body is moving, but our brain can’t work out why, this creates some internal confusion.

    Within our brains, the “vestibular system”, which includes sensory organs in your inner ear, helps maintain balance.
    It has trouble doing this when you’re constantly being moved around (for example, inside a car) and sends the signals throughout our body which make us feel woozy.

    Supporting this theory, people who have damage to some parts of their inner ear systems can become completely immune to motion sickness.

    Why does motion sickness affect some people and not others?

    Very rough movement will make almost anyone
    motion sick. But some people are much more susceptible.

    Women tend to experience motion sickness more than men. There is evidence that hormonal fluctuations – for example during pregnancy or some stages of the menstrual cycle – may increase susceptibility.

    Some other conditions, such as vertigo and migraines, also make people more likely to experience motion sickness.

    In children, motion sickness tends to peak between ages six and nine, tapering off in the teens. It is much rarer in the elderly.

    In a car, the driver is normally in charge of the motion, and so their brain can anticipate movements (such as turning), leading to less motion sickness than for passengers.

    Are some modes of transport worse?

    Motion sickness is typically triggered by slow, up-and-down and left-to-right movements (low-frequency lateral and vertical motion). The more pronounced the motion, the more likely we are to get sick.

    This is why you might feel fine during some stages of an air flight, but become nauseous during times when there is turbulence. It’s the same at sea, where the larger and more undulating the waves, the more chance there is passengers will feel sick.

    Recent reports have suggested electric vehicles make motion sickness worse.

    This may be because electric vehicles tend to launch from a standstill with a fast acceleration. Sudden movements like this can make some occupants more nauseous.

    The silence of an electric vehicle is also unusual. Most of us are used to hearing the engine running and feeling the vehicle’s rumble as it moves. The silence in an electric vehicle removes these prompts, and likely further confuses our brain, making motion sickness worse.

    Interestingly, when an electric vehicle is put into autonomous (self-driving) mode, the driver becomes just as susceptible to motion sickness as the passengers.

    What helps motion sickness?

    For some people it never goes away, and they remain susceptible to motion sickness for life.

    But there are ways to manage symptoms, for example, avoiding travelling in bad weather, looking out the window and focusing on stable points (such as the aeroplane wing during a flight) or a distant stationary object (such as the horizon). This reduces conflicting signals in your brain.

    It may also help to:

    Medicines can help. Your doctor or pharmacist can recommend a variety of over-the-counter medications, such as antihistamines, which may help alleviate symptoms.

    Some people find alternative treatments helpful, including ginger, anti-nausea wrist bands (sea-bands or pressure bands). However we still don’t have enough consistent scientific evidence to endorse these remedies.

    There are longer-term options such as prescription medications and skin patches. However, many have potential side effects, so you should discuss these with a health professional.

    Not all of these medications will be suitable for children. However, there are some options which may help alleviate serious cases, and these can be talked through with your family GP.

    Does it ever go away?

    Sometimes, repeated exposure to the activity (called habituation) can help reduce motion sickness. The ancient Romans and Greeks reported the more experienced a sailor became, the less prone they were to sea sickness.

    While inconvenient, motion sickness may also have some evolutionary advantages. It’s thought species prone to motion sickness (including humans, fish, dogs, cats, mice and horses) avoid dangerous patches of rough water or high windy branches.

    We’re safest when firmly on land and not moving at all. Perhaps motion sickness is simply one way that our body works to keep us out of harm’s way.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Here’s why some people suffer from motion sickness – and which remedies actually work – https://theconversation.com/heres-why-some-people-suffer-from-motion-sickness-and-which-remedies-actually-work-258065

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Data gaps and demographic change: the end of the NZ census will create big blind spots

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Spoonley, Distinguished Professor, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

    Getty Images

    Ending the New Zealand census as we’ve known it will save money – it was “no longer financially viable”, according to Statistics Minister Shane Reti – but the true cost of those savings could be considerable.

    Of course, it’s no secret the two previous censuses raised major questions about the quality of census data and the process. In 2018, an untested experiment with online returns, and a reduced workforce in the field, saw “an unacceptably low response rate”.

    In 2023, StatsNZ had to apologise again, this time for failing to keep the collected data safe and for another low response rate, especially for Māori. The problems were compounded by low trust in government and an unwillingness to share private information in the wake of COVID-related misinformation.

    It didn’t help that the 2023 census cost NZ$325 million, up from $104 million in 2013 – double the amount per capita, for reasons that remain unclear.

    That was enough. Cabinet papers between March and May last year signalled the government was going to move to an alternative system of data collection. The shift was characterised as “modernising the census” – except there will be no census.

    But the change has been made without any apparent consideration of how the census is used – specifically, that it is crucial to the management of a modern society and economy – and what will be lost in the process.

    Comparison across time

    One of the primary functions of a census is to allow comparison with previous censuses over time. And these go back a long way.

    The first census, in 1851, collected data on Europeans only, although the Native Secretary provided details of Māori from 1849 to 1850. The Census Act of 1858 required that a national census of all Europeans take place every three years. A new act in 1877 introduced the five-yearly census we’ve become used to.

    Data on Māori was collected separately until 1916 when a question on “race” appeared. The 1926 Census and Statistical Act then required all individuals, including Māori, to complete the census forms.

    Depression and war meant there were no censuses in 1931 and 1941, and the 2011 census was delayed because of the Christchurch earthquakes. Otherwise, we have had regular updates from nearly all the resident population on a whole range of aspects of life in New Zealand.

    This comprehensive picture of New Zealanders and the way we live underpins nearly every aspect of political decision-making and policy development. But no more.

    The new approach will use existing administrative data collected by government departments and agencies as part of their normal business. ACC, Inland Revenue, the Ministry of Social Development, Ministry of Education, and Department of Internal Affairs will be key data sources.

    The data gaps will be addressed by asking those departments and agencies to change some of what they collect. But the main change will involve surveys – as yet unspecified in terms of sample size or frame, or the questions and topics to be covered – which will “verify data quality and fill gaps”.

    As well as saving money, the statistics minister says, this approach will provide “more timely insights”. But this all leaves important questions unanswered.

    Inadequate administrative data

    Administrative data is collected for specific purposes and in different ways by government departments and agencies. The coverage is incomplete, there is often no consistency in what is collected, and there are issues about data quality and robustness.

    Moreover, information management is not a particular strength of most public sector agencies (Inland Revenue might be one of the few exceptions). It will be interesting to see whether the government is prepared to fund new technology options and methods to help improve this data collection.

    For example, the Understanding Policing Delivery research project has identified issues with data collection, especially in relation to ethnicity: national intelligence activities collect and hold data on ethnicity, iwi and hapū affiliations, but the process for issuing police infringement notices for offending does not.

    As a StatsNZ exercise which looked at ethnicity data collection across the government sector noted:

    The question asked for ethnicity differs widely across administrative data sources and often differs within each administrative source depending on the mode of collection or the form used.

    Such inconsistencies will need to be rectified if administrative data is to be anything like as comprehensive and consistent as the data provided by the census.

    Major demographic change

    New Zealand is also undergoing major demographic change, including the following trends:

    • fertility has declined and is at sub-replacement levels

    • the population is rapidly ageing

    • the proportion of population living in the top half of the North Island is increasing

    • and immigration has contributed significantly to population growth and diversity.

    I am not convinced the new administrative approach will capture these demographic changes, much less good data on the wellbeing of various communities or the nature of families and households.

    Administrative data, by definition, is partial and suited to the particular activities and concerns of the agency or department in question. But in a modern, complex society, data is key. We have just lost one of the most powerful tools available for understanding this country in the 21st century.

    The author acknowledges Len Cook, former Government Statistician of New Zealand, for his comments and suggestions.

    Paul Spoonley has received funding from MBIE and is associated with Koi Tu.

    – ref. Data gaps and demographic change: the end of the NZ census will create big blind spots – https://theconversation.com/data-gaps-and-demographic-change-the-end-of-the-nz-census-will-create-big-blind-spots-259663

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 24, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 24, 2025.

    Calls for New Zealand to denounce United States attack on Iran
    By Lillian Hanly, RNZ News political reporter Prominent lawyers are joining opposition parties as they call for the New Zealand government to denounce the United States attack on Iranian nuclear facilities. Iranian New Zealander and lawyer Arman Askarany said the New Zealand government was showing “indifference”. It comes as acting Prime Minister David Seymour told

    Warm-ups, layered clothes, recovery: 4 tips to exercise safely in the cold
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Harry Banyard, Senior Lecturer in Exercise and Sports Science, Swinburne University of Technology Maridav/Shutterstock Temperatures have dropped in many parts of Australia which means runners, cyclists, rowers, hikers, or anyone physically active outside need to take extra precautions to stay safe and exercise in relative comfort. Cold

    Sharks freeze when you turn them upside down – and there’s no good reason why
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jodie L. Rummer, Professor of Marine Biology, James Cook University Rachel Moore Imagine watching your favourite nature documentary. The predator lunges rapidly from its hiding place, jaws wide open, and the prey … suddenly goes limp. It looks dead. For some animals, this freeze response – called

    Drone footage captured orcas crafting tools out of kelp – and using them for grooming
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Pirotta, Postdoctoral Researcher and Wildlife Scientist, Macquarie University Sara Jenkins/500px/Getty The more we learn about orcas, the more remarkable they are. These giant dolphins are the ocean’s true apex predator, preying on great white sharks and other lesser predators. They’re very intelligent and highly social. Their

    Inaccurate and misogynistic: why we need to make the term ‘hysterectomy’ history
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Theresa Larkin, Associate Professor of Medical Sciences, University of Wollongong Panuwat Dangsungnoen/Getty Images Have you had a tonsillectomy (your tonsils taken out), appendectomy (your appendix removed) or lumpectomy (removal of a lump from your breast)? The suffix “ectomy” denotes surgical removal of the named body part, so

    More women are using medical cannabis – but new research shows barriers push some into illegal markets
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vinuli Withanarachchie, PhD candidate, College of Health, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University Getty Images The number of women using medicinal cannabis is growing in New Zealand and overseas. They use cannabis treatment for general conditions such as pain, anxiety, inflammation and nausea, as well as

    It’s time to face an uncomfortable truth: maybe our pampered pets would be better off without us
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nancy Cushing, Associate professor, University of Newcastle ROSLAN RAHMAN/AFP via Getty Images Pet-keeping is often promoted for the benefits it brings humans. A close association with another animal can provide us with a sense of purpose and a daily dose of joy. It can aid our health,

    Work, wages and apprenticeships: sifting for clues about the lives of girls in ancient Egypt
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julia Hamilton, Lecturer in History and Archaeology, Macquarie University Weavers in the Tomb of Khnumhotep II, Beni Hassan, Egypt. Painted by Norman de Garis Davies (MMA 33.8.16) We know surprisingly little about the lives of children in ancient Egypt. And what records we do have about them

    Archetyp was one of the dark web’s biggest drug markets. A global sting has shut it down
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elena Morgenthaler, PhD Candidate, School of Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University Operation Deep Sentinel Last week, one of the dark web’s most prominent drug marketplaces – Archetyp – was shut down in an international, multi-agency law enforcement operation following years of investigations. It was touted as

    How do sleep trackers work, and are they worth it? A sleep scientist breaks it down
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dean J. Miller, Senior Lecturer, Appleton Institute, HealthWise Research Group, CQUniversity Australia Many smartwatches, fitness and wellness trackers now offer sleep tracking among their many functions. Wear your watch or ring to bed, and you’ll wake up to a detailed sleep report telling you not just how

    ‘It feels like I am being forced to harm a child’: research shows how teachers are suffering moral injury
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Glenys Oberg, PhD candidate in education and trauma, The University of Queensland SolStock/Getty Images Australia is in the grip of a teacher shortage. Teachers are burning out, warning the job is no longer sustainable and leaving the profession. We know this is due to excessive workloads, stress

    NZ Greens call on state to condemn US over ‘dangerous’ attack on Iran
    Asia Pacific Report New Zealand’s opposition Green Party has called on the government to condemn the United States for its illegal bombing of Iran and inflaming tensions across the Middle East. “The actions of the United States pose a fundamental threat to world peace,” said Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson in a statement. “The rest

    View from the Hill: Albanese supports US bombing, reluctantly
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra When Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong went out on Monday to back the United States attack on Iran, it was obvious their support was through gritted teeth. Albanese told their joint news conference: “The world has

    Woodside’s North West Shelf gas extension is being challenged in the courts. Could it be stopped?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samantha Hepburn, Professor, Deakin Law School, Deakin University The controversial extension of Woodside’s North West Shelf gas project off Western Australia faces two legal challenges. Both raise significant concerns about the validity of government approvals. One could even seek an injunction, preventing federal environment minister Murray Watt

    Australian CEOs are still getting their bonuses. Performance doesn’t seem to matter so much
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Richard Denniss, Adjunct Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University RomanR/Shutterstock Almost all of Australia’s top chief executives are, according to their boards at least, knocking it out of the park in terms of performance. That is despite sluggish productivity, persistently high carbon emissions, rising

    Strait of Hormuz: closing vital oil and gas route would disrupt global supplies. How will Australia be affected?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sanjoy Paul, Associate Professor in Operations and Supply Chain Management, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney Below the Sky/Shutterstock The Iranian parliament has approved the closure of key shipping route the Strait of Hormuz, in a move that could further escalate the Israel/Iran war. The strait

    MIT researchers say using ChatGPT can rot your brain. The truth is a little more complicated
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vitomir Kovanovic, Associate Professor and Associate Director of the Centre for Change and Complexity in Learning (C3L), Education Futures, University of South Australia Rroselavy / Shutterstock Since ChatGPT appeared almost three years ago, the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) technologies on learning has been widely debated. Are

    Why the US strikes on Iran are illegal and can set a troubling precedent
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University After the United States bombed Iran’s three nuclear facilities on Sunday, US President Donald Trump said its objective was a “stop to the nuclear threat posed by the world’s number one state sponsor of terror”. US Defence Secretary

    How do I get started in the gym lifting weights?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mandy Hagstrom, Senior Lecturer, Exercise Physiology. School of Health Sciences, UNSW Sydney Thomas Barwick/Getty So you’ve never been to a gym and are keen to start, but something’s holding you back. Perhaps you don’t know what to actually do in there or feel like you’ll just look

    NZ’s plan to ‘welcome anyone, from anywhere, anytime’ is not a sustainable tourism policy
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Regina Scheyvens, Professor of Development Studies, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University Getty Images Attracting more Chinese tourists to New Zealand, including during the off-season, was a major part of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s trade agenda during his visit to China last week. As Tourism Minister

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Calls for New Zealand to denounce United States attack on Iran

    By Lillian Hanly, RNZ News political reporter

    Prominent lawyers are joining opposition parties as they call for the New Zealand government to denounce the United States attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.

    Iranian New Zealander and lawyer Arman Askarany said the New Zealand government was showing “indifference”.

    It comes as acting Prime Minister David Seymour told reporters on Monday there was “no benefit” in rushing to a judgment regarding the US attack.

    “We’re far better to keep our counsel, because it costs nothing to get more information, but going off half-cocked can be very costly for a small nation.”

    Iran and Israel continued to exchange strikes over the weekend after Israel’s initial attack nearly two weeks ago.

    Israeli authorities say at least 25 people have been killed, and Iran said on Sunday Israeli strikes had killed at least 224 people since June 13.

    The Human Rights Activists news agency puts the death toll in Iran above 650 people.

    US attacked Iran nuclear sites
    The US entered the war at the weekend by attacking what it said was key nuclear sites in Iran — including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — on Sunday.

    On Monday, the Australian government signalled its support for the strike, and called for de-escalation and a return to diplomacy.

    Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong said the strike was a unilateral action by its security ally the United States, and Australia was joining calls from Britain and other countries for Iran to return to the negotiating table

    Not long after, Foreign Minister Winston Peters issued a statement on X, giving tacit endorsement to the decision to bomb nuclear facilities.

    The statement was also released just ahead of the NATO meeting in Brussels, which Prime Minister Christopher Luxon was attending.

    Peters said Iran could not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons, and noted the United States’ targeted attacks aimed at “degrading Iran’s nuclear capabilities”.

    He went on to acknowledge the US statement to the UN Security Council saying the attack was “acting in collective self-defence consistent with the UN Charter”.

    Self-defence ‘complete joke’
    Askarany told RNZ it was a “complete joke” that New Zealand had acknowledged the US statement saying it was self-defence.

    “It would be funny if it wasn’t so horrific.”

    He said it was a clear escalation by the US and Israel, and believed New Zealand was undermining the rules-based order it purported to support, given it refused to say Israel and the US had attacked Iran.

    Askarany acknolwedged the calls for deescalation and for peace in the region, but said they were “abstract platitudes” if the aggressor was not named.

    He called on people who might not know about Iran to learn more about it.

    “There’s so much history and culture and beautiful things about Iran that represent my people far more than the words of Trump and Netanyahu.”

    Peters told RNZ Morning Report on Monday the government wanted to know all the facts before taking a position on the US strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

    Politicians at a crossroads
     Acting Prime Minister David Seymour held his first post-cabinet media conference on Monday, in which he said nobody was calling on New Zealand to rush to a judgment on the rights and wrongs of the situation.

    He echoed the Foreign Minister’s statement, saying “of course” New Zealand noted the US assertion of the legality of their actions.

    He also indicated, “like just about every country in the world, that we cannot have a nuclear-armed Iran.”

    “That does not mean that we are rushing to form our own judgment on the rights or wrongs or legality of any action.”

    He insisted New Zealand was not sitting on the fence, but said “nor are we rushing to judgement.”

    “I believe the world is not sitting there waiting for New Zealand to give its position on the legality of the situation.

    “What people do want to see is de escalation and dialogue, and most critically for us, the safety of New Zealanders in the region.”

    When asked about the Australian government’s position, Seymour said New Zealand did not have the intelligence that other countries may have.

    Hikpins says attack ‘disappointing’
    Labour leader Chris Hipkins called the attack by the US on Iran “very disappointing”, “not justified” and “almost certainly” against international law.

    He wanted New Zealand to take a stronger stance on the issue.

    “New Zealand should take a stronger position in condemning the attacks and saying that we do not believe they are justified, and we do not believe that they are consistent with international law.”

    Hipkins said the US had not made a case for the action taken, and they should step back and get back around the table with Iran.

    The Green Party and Te Pāti Māori both called on the government to condemn the attack by the US.

    “The actions of the United States pose a fundamental threat to world peace.

    ‘Dangerous escalation’
    “The rest of the world, including New Zealand, must take a stand and make it clear that this dangerous escalation is unacceptable,” said Green Party coleader Marama Davidson.

    “We saw this with the US war on Iraq, and we are seeing it again with this recent attack on Iran. We are at risk of a violent history repeating itself.”

    Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi said the government was remaining silent on Israel.

    “When the US bombs Iran, Luxon calls it an ‘opportunity’. But when Cook Islanders assert their sovereignty or Chinese vessels travel through international waters, he leaps to condemnation,” said Waititi.

    “Israel continues to maintain an undeclared nuclear arsenal. Yet this government won’t say a word.

    “It condemns non-Western powers at every turn but remains silent when its allies act with impunity.”

    International law experts weigh in
     University of Waikato Professor Alexander Gillespie said it was “an illegal war” and the option of diplomacy should have been exhausted before the first strike.

    As Luxon headed to NATO, Gillespie acknowledged it would be difficult for him to take a “hard line” on the issue, “because he’s going to be caught up with the members and the partners of NATO.”

    He said the question would be whether NATO members accept there was a right of self-defence and whether the actions of the US and Israel were justified.

    Gillespie said former prime minister Helen Clark spoke very clearly in 2003 against the invasion of Iraq, but he could not see New Zealand’s current Prime Minister saying that.

    “That’s not because they don’t believe it, but because there would be a risk of a backhand from the United States.

    “And we’re spending a lot of time right now trying not to offend this Trump administration.”

    ‘Might is right’ precedent
    University of Otago Professor Robert Patman said the US strike on Iran would likely “make things worse” and set a precedent for “might is right.”

    He said he had “no brief” for the repressive Iranian regime, but under international law it had been subject of “two illegal attacks in the last 10 days”, from Israel and now from the US.

    Patman said New Zealand had been guarded in its comments about the attacks on Iran, and believed the country should speak out.

    “We have championed non nuclear security since the mid 80s. We were a key player, a leader, of the treaty to abolish nuclear weapons, and that now has 94 signatories.”

    He said New Zealand does have a voice and an expectation to contribute to an international debate that’s beginning to unfold.

    “We seem to be at a fork in the road moment internationally, we can seek to reinstate the idea that international relations should be based on rules, principles and procedures, or we can simply passively accept the erosion of that architecture, which is to the detriment of the majority of countries in the world.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –