Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why do I procrastinate? And can I do anything about it?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Catherine Houlihan, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Psychology, University of the Sunshine Coast

    Dima Berlin/Shutterstock

    Can you only start a boring admin task once your house is clean? Do you leave the trickiest emails to the end of the day?

    Delaying a goal or task – usually to do something less important instead – is known as procrastination and it affects many of us. Most people report procrastinating some of the time, but for others it can be chronic.

    While procrastination is common, it can be frustrating and lead to feelings of shame, guilt and anxiety.

    Here’s why you might be avoiding that task – and five steps to get on top of it.

    Am I procrastinating?

    You might find yourself putting off starting something, abandoning it before it’s finished or leaving it to the very last minute.

    Thoughts such as “I can catch up later” or “I’ll turn it in late” can be telltale signs of procrastination. Maybe you’ve Googled “Why do I procrastinate?” while procrastinating and have come across this article.

    Other times, you might not even be aware you’re doing it. Perhaps you look up and realise you’ve been scrolling online shopping and kitten videos for the past hour, instead of doing your assignment.

    Procrastination is not a character flaw, and it doesn’t mean you’re lazy or even bad at managing time. Framing it this way can make you feel even worse about the behaviour, and stops you learning the real reasons behind it.

    If you want to stop procrastinating, it’s important to understand why you do it in the first place.

    You may find yourself doing another, less urgent task, without even realising you’re procrastinating.
    Daenin/Shutterstock

    Why do I procrastinate?

    Procrastination can be a way of dealing with tricky emotions. Research shows we put off tasks we find boring or frustrating, as well as those we resent or that lack personal meaning.

    We may avoid tasks that create stress or painful emotions, such as completing a tax return where you owe a lot of money, or packing up a parent’s house after their death.

    There a few deeper reasons, too.

    Procrastination can be a sign of perfectionism. This is when an intense fear of failure – of getting something wrong – creates so much pressure to be perfect that it stops us from even getting started.

    People with low self-esteem also tend to procrastinate, whether or not they experience perfectionism. Here, it’s a negative self-view (“I’m not good at most things”) coupled with low confidence (“I probably won’t get it right”) that gets in the way of beginning a task.

    Distraction can be a factor, too. Most of us battle constant interruptions, with pings and alerts designed to redirect our attention. But being very easily distracted can also be a sign you’re avoiding the task.

    For some people, difficulty completing tasks could be a sign of an underlying issue such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. If you’re worried procrastination is affecting your day-to-day life, you can speak to your doctor to seek help.

    Distraction can be a factor.
    F8 Studio/Shutterstock

    Is procrastination ever helpful?

    It depends.

    Some people enjoy the pressure of a deadline. Leaving a task to the last minute can be a strategy to improve motivation or get it done in a limited time.

    Procrastination can also be a coping mechanism.

    Delaying unpleasant tasks may make us feel better in the moment. Avoiding the task may mean we don’t have to face the possibility of getting it wrong, or the negative emotions or consequences it involves.

    But this usually only works in the short term, and in the long term it’s more likely to cause problems.

    Procrastination can trigger self-criticism as well as negative emotions such as guilt and shame.

    In the long term it can also lead to mental health problems including anxiety and depression. Procrastinating has even been linked to poor outcomes in education – such as being caught copying in exams – and at work, including lower salaries and higher likelihood of unemployment.

    So what can we do about it?

    5 steps to tackling procrastination

    1. Face it – you’re procrastinating. Being able to identify and name these patterns is the first step to overcoming procrastination.

    2. Explore why. Understanding the underlying causes is key. Are you afraid of getting it wrong? Is your to-do list unrealistic? Or do you just love a tight deadline? If your procrastination results from perfectionism or low self-esteem you may wish to explore evidence-based treatments such as cognitive behavioural therapy, with a therapist or through self-guided activities.

    3. Start prioritising. Take a good look at your to-do list. Are the most urgent or important things at the top? Have you given yourself enough time to complete the tasks? Breaking a task into smaller chunks and taking regular breaks will help prevent you from becoming overwhelmed. If you’re not sure what’s the most important, try talking it through with someone. If you tend to leave the most boring things to the last minute and then never get around to them, set some time aside at the start of each day to get these tasks done.

    4. Avoid distractions. Set your phone to “do not disturb”, hang a sign on the door, tell those around you you’ll be “offline” for a little while. Setting a clear start and end time can help you stick to this rule.

    5. Build in rewards. Life is hard work – be kind to yourself. Whenever you complete a difficult task or cross something off your to-do list, balance this by doing something more enjoyable. Building in rewards can make facing the to-do list a little bit easier.

    Catherine Houlihan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Why do I procrastinate? And can I do anything about it? – https://theconversation.com/why-do-i-procrastinate-and-can-i-do-anything-about-it-255770

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Evidence shows AI systems are already too much like humans. Will that be a problem?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Sandra Peter, Director of Sydney Executive Plus, University of Sydney

    Studiostoks / Shutterstock

    What if we could design a machine that could read your emotions and intentions, write thoughtful, empathetic, perfectly timed responses — and seemingly know exactly what you need to hear? A machine so seductive, you wouldn’t even realise it’s artificial. What if we already have?

    In a comprehensive meta-analysis, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, we show that the latest generation of large language model-powered chatbots match and exceed most humans in their ability to communicate. A growing body of research shows these systems now reliably pass the Turing test, fooling humans into thinking they are interacting with another human.

    None of us was expecting the arrival of super communicators. Science fiction taught us that artificial intelligence (AI) would be highly rational and all-knowing, but lack humanity.

    Yet here we are. Recent experiments have shown that models such as GPT-4 outperform humans in writing persuasively and also empathetically. Another study found that large language models (LLMs) excel at assessing nuanced sentiment in human-written messages.

    LLMs are also masters at roleplay, assuming a wide range of personas and mimicking nuanced linguistic character styles. This is amplified by their ability to infer human beliefs and intentions from text. Of course, LLMs do not possess true empathy or social understanding – but they are highly effective mimicking machines.

    We call these systems “anthropomorphic agents”. Traditionally, anthropomorphism refers to ascribing human traits to non-human entities. However, LLMs genuinely display highly human-like qualities, so calls to avoid anthropomorphising LLMs will fall flat.

    This is a landmark moment: when you cannot tell the difference between talking to a human or an AI chatbot online.

    On the internet, nobody knows you’re an AI

    What does this mean? On the one hand, LLMs promise to make complex information more widely accessible via chat interfaces, tailoring messages to individual comprehension levels. This has applications across many domains, such as legal services or public health. In education, the roleplay abilities can be used to create Socratic tutors that ask personalised questions and help students learn.

    At the same time, these systems are seductive. Millions of users already interact with AI companion apps daily. Much has been said about the negative effects of companion apps, but anthropomorphic seduction comes with far wider implications.

    Users are ready to trust AI chatbots so much that they disclose highly personal information. Pair this with the bots’ highly persuasive qualities, and genuine concerns emerge.

    Recent research by AI company Anthropic further shows that its Claude 3 chatbot was at its most persuasive when allowed to fabricate information and engage in deception. Given AI chatbots have no moral inhibitions, they are poised to be much better at deception than humans.

    This opens the door to manipulation at scale, to spread disinformation, or create highly effective sales tactics. What could be more effective than a trusted companion casually recommending a product in conversation? ChatGPT has already begun to provide product recommendations in response to user questions. It’s only a short step to subtly weaving product recommendations into conversations – without you ever asking.

    What can be done?

    It is easy to call for regulation, but harder to work out the details.

    The first step is to raise awareness of these abilities. Regulation should prescribe disclosure – users need to always know that they interact with an AI, like the EU AI Act mandates. But this will not be enough, given the AI systems’ seductive qualities.

    The second step must be to better understand anthropomorphic qualities. So far, LLM tests measure “intelligence” and knowledge recall, but none so far measures the degree of “human likeness”. With a test like this, AI companies could be required to disclose anthropomorphic abilities with a rating system, and legislators could determine acceptable risk levels for certain contexts and age groups.

    The cautionary tale of social media, which was largely unregulated until much harm had been done, suggests there is some urgency. If governments take a hands-off approach, AI is likely to amplify existing problems with spreading of mis- and disinformation, or the loneliness epidemic. In fact, Meta chief executive Mark Zuckerberg has already signalled that he would like to fill the void of real human contact with “AI friends”.

    Relying on AI companies to refrain from further humanising their systems seems ill-advised. All developments point in the opposite direction. OpenAI is working on making their systems more engaging and personable, with the ability to give your version of ChatGPT a specific “personality”. ChatGPT has generally become more chatty, often asking followup questions to keep the conversation going, and its voice mode adds even more seductive appeal.

    Much good can be done with anthropomorphic agents. Their persuasive abilities can be used for ill causes and for good ones, from fighting conspiracy theories to enticing users into donating and other prosocial behaviours.

    Yet we need a comprehensive agenda across the spectrum of design and development, deployment and use, and policy and regulation of conversational agents. When AI can inherently push our buttons, we shouldn’t let it change our systems.

    Jevin West receives funding from the National Science Foundation, the Knight Foundation, and others. The full list of funders and affiliated organizations can be found here: https://jevinwest.org/cv.html

    Kai Riemer and Sandra Peter do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Evidence shows AI systems are already too much like humans. Will that be a problem? – https://theconversation.com/evidence-shows-ai-systems-are-already-too-much-like-humans-will-that-be-a-problem-256980

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Please don’t tape your mouth at night, whatever TikTok says. A new study shows why this viral trend can be risky

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Moira Junge, Adjunct Clincal Associate Professor (Psychologist), Monash University

    K.IvanS/Shutterstock

    You might have heard of people using tape to literally keep their mouths shut while they sleep. Mouth taping has become a popular trend on social media, with many fans claiming it helps improve sleep and overall health.

    The purported benefits of mouth taping during sleep are largely anecdotal, and include claims of better airflow, less snoring, improved asthma symptoms, less of a dry mouth, being less likely to have bad breath, and better sleep quality.

    As the trend has gained momentum in recent years the claims have also come to include improved skin, mood and digestion – and even a sharper jawline.

    The rationale for mouth taping during sleep is to encourage breathing through the nose rather than through the mouth. When a person’s nasal passages are blocked, breathing switches from the nose to the mouth. Mouth breathing has been linked to conditions such as obstructive sleep apnoea.

    But is mouth taping an effective way to address these issues, and is it safe? A new review suggests taping your mouth shut while you sleep offers limited benefits – and could pose risks.

    What did the review find?

    In a new paper, Canadian researchers reviewed the scientific literature on mouth taping, searching for studies that mentioned terms such as “mouth breathing”, “mouth taping” and “sleep”.

    They searched specifically for studies looking at people with known mouth breathing and breathing-related sleeping problems such as obstructive sleep apnoea to understand the potential benefits and harms of mouth taping for this group.

    Obstructive sleep apnoea is a condition where your airway is partly or completely blocked at times while you’re asleep. This can cause you to stop breathing for short periods, called “apnoeas”. Apnoeas can happen many times a night, resulting in lowered oxygen levels in the blood as well as sleep disruption.

    The researchers found ten eligible studies published between 1999 and 2024, with a total of 213 participants. Eight studies looked at mouth taping, and two studies involved using a chin strap to keep the mouth shut.

    Only two studies identified any benefits of mouth taping for mild obstructive sleep apnoea. The observed improvements – to measures such as oxygen levels in the blood and number of apnoeas per hour – were modest.

    And although they were statistically significant, they were probably not clinically significant. This means these changes likely wouldn’t make much difference to symptoms or treatment decisions.

    The remainder of studies found no evidence mouth taping helps to treat mouth breathing or related conditions.

    Mouth taping has become a popular social media trend.
    K.IvanS/Shutterstock

    What’s more, four studies warned about potential serious harms. In particular, covering the mouth could pose a risk of asphyxiation (lack of oxygen that can lead to unconsciousness or death) for people whose mouth breathing is caused by significant blockage of the nasal airways. This kind of nasal obstruction could be a result of conditions such as hay fever, deviated septum, or enlarged tonsils.

    In other words, mouth taping is definitely not a good idea if you have a blocked nose, as it’s unsafe to have both the nose and the mouth obstructed at the same time during sleep.

    What’s the take-home message?

    The authors concluded there are very few benefits and some potential serious risks associated with mouth taping in people who are mouth breathers or have obstructive sleep apnoea.

    They did however note we need further high-quality evidence to better understand if mouth taping is safe and works.

    This review didn’t focus on any research relating to mouth taping for proposed improvements to mood, skin, digestion, sharper jaw lines and other things, so the researchers could not draw conclusions about the efficacy and safety of mouth taping for those purposes.

    Snoring is one of the problems mouth taping has been suggested to help with.
    Kleber Cordeiro/Shutterstock

    Internationally, qualified sleep health professionals do not recommend mouth taping.

    If you have concerns about your sleep, the best thing to do is to consult trusted scientific sources or a health-care professional who will be able to guide you to address the underlying causes of your sleep challenges.

    Trying social media trends such as mouth taping before you seek expert advice could lead to delays in diagnosing serious conditions for which there are evidence-based treatments available.

    Mouth taping should definitely not be attempted in children.

    It’s possible that in some healthy adults, without respiratory conditions, without significant sleep disorders, and who don’t have tape allergies, that mouth taping could pose little harm and produce some modest benefits. But we don’t have enough evidence yet to know one way or the other.

    Moira Junge is CEO of The Sleep Health Foundation. She is also affiliated with the Healthylife Health Advisory Board and is a psychologist and clinic director at Yarraville Health Group.

    ref. Please don’t tape your mouth at night, whatever TikTok says. A new study shows why this viral trend can be risky – https://theconversation.com/please-dont-tape-your-mouth-at-night-whatever-tiktok-says-a-new-study-shows-why-this-viral-trend-can-be-risky-256901

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Compression tights and tops: do they actually benefit you during (or after) exercise?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ben Singh, Research Fellow, Allied Health & Human Performance, University of South Australia

    Olena Yakobchuk/Shutterstock

    You’ve seen them in every gym: tight black leggings, neon sleeves and even knee-length socks.

    Compression gear is everywhere, worn by weekend joggers, elite athletes and influencers striking poses mid-squat.

    But do compression garments actually improve your performance, or is the benefit mostly in your head?

    Let’s dive into the history, the science and whether they are worth your money.

    From hospitals to hashtags

    Compression garments didn’t start in sport. They were originally used in medical settings to improve blood flow in patients recovering from surgery or with circulation issues such as varicose veins.

    Doctors found tight garments that applied gentle pressure to limbs could help move blood and reduce swelling.

    But in the late 1990s and early 2000s, athletes, scientists and sports brands began experimenting with compression wear in training and competition.

    Companies such as SKINS, 2XU, and Under Armour entered the scene with bold promises: improved performance, reduced fatigue and faster recovery.

    Then, by the 2010s, compression wear wasn’t just for athletes – it had become a fashion statement.

    Social media helped drive the trend: influencers wore these items in gym selfies, TikTokers praised the sleek, sculpted look. And with the rise of athleisure, compression garments became everyday apparel, blending fitness with fashion.

    What are these garments supposed to do?

    Compression gear is designed to fit tightly against the skin and apply gentle, consistent pressure to muscles. The big claims made by manufacturers include:

    You’ll hear gym-goers say they feel “more supported” or “less sore” after using compression gear.

    Some even report improved posture or a mental boost – like stepping into a superhero suit.

    What the science says

    Research into compression garments has been growing steadily and the results are mixed – but interesting.

    A 2013 major meta-analysis reported moderate benefits across several recovery markers, including lower levels of creatine kinase (a sign of muscle damage) and less delayed-onset muscle soreness up to 72 hours after exercise.

    A 2016 review found compression garments reduced muscle soreness and swelling and boosted muscle power and strength. These improvements were up to 1.5 times greater (compared to people who didn’t wear compression garments) in some cases.

    Building on this, a 2017 review found people who wore compression gear recovered strength more quickly, with noticeable improvements within eight to 24 hours after a workout. Strength recovery scores were around 60% higher in those wearing compression gear compared to those who didn’t.

    But the findings are not consistent. A 2022 review of 19 trials found little effect on strength during the first few days post-exercise.

    And when it comes to actual performance, a comprehensive 2025 review of 51 studies concluded compression garments do not enhance race time or endurance performance in runners. And while they may reduce soft tissue vibration (which might feel more comfortable), they offered no meaningful edge in speed, stamina or oxygen use.

    Overall, in simpler terms: compression gear may help you recover faster but don’t expect it to turn you into an Olympic sprinter.

    When compression gear might help (and when it won’t)

    Here are some situations when compression garments can be genuinely useful:

    But don’t count on them to:

    • improve your times: there’s no strong evidence they boost speed or endurance

    • make you stronger: while some research has noted improvements in strength and power, this won’t necessarily have a noticeable effect on your athletic performance

    • replace training or good sleep: recovery still depends on the basics – rest, hydration and nutrition.

    So, should you wear them?

    Compression outfits won’t magically transform your body or training results. But they aren’t a waste of money either.

    If they make you feel more comfortable, confident or supported, that’s a valid reason to wear them. The psychological boost alone can be enough to enhance motivation or focus.

    And when it comes to post-exercise recovery, the evidence is solid enough to justify keeping a pair in your gym bag.

    Think of them like a good pair of shoes. They won’t run the race for you, but they might make the journey a little smoother.

    And if you’re just wearing them for the outfit photo on Instagram? That’s fine, too. Sometimes, confidence is the best workout gear of all.

    Ben Singh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Compression tights and tops: do they actually benefit you during (or after) exercise? – https://theconversation.com/compression-tights-and-tops-do-they-actually-benefit-you-during-or-after-exercise-255719

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: Vivid, thrilling and ghastly: new theatrical adaptation of The Birds evokes climate disaster, terrorism and lockdown

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Austin, Senior Lecturer in Theatre, The University of Melbourne

    Pia Johnson/Malthouse Theatre

    Malthouse’s new production of The Birds is a thrillingly realised take on the 1952 short story by Daphne Du Maurier. Adapted by Louise Fox and directed by Matthew Lutton, this vivid realisation is a chilling treatise on fear and resilience in the face of an external threat.

    Paula Arundell plays Tessa, a wife and mother whose family has recently undergone a seachange to a sleepy little coastal town. Tessa serves as both our narrator and key storyteller as the show unfolds, and Arundell embodies multiple other characters with precise vocal and physical shifts.

    As the birds start to amass on the sleepy seaside hamlet, Tessa becomes increasingly concerned about their intentions. After a random avian attack on a neighbour and the terror of the persistent nocturnal window-tapping visitors who eventually invade Tessa’s daughter’s bedroom, it becomes clear to Tessa her concerns are justified.

    At first, no one takes the threat of the birds as seriously as Tessa. They fail to recognise the sinister and particular interest the birds have in the human species. Her husband and neighbour dismiss Tessa’s concerns as a sort of paranoia.

    But as the amount of birds begins to sharply increase, creating a shadow in the sky that blocks out the sun, Tessa becomes the galvanising force determined to protect her family from this imminent deadly attack.

    A theatrical feat

    Sound, light and text support the audience to imagine rich landscapes of domestic, natural and urban settings.

    Kat Chan’s set is stripped back, with a raised area in the middle of the stage and a few set and prop items on long tables along the walls. With this deceptively simple design, we are transported to the seashore, the interior of a home and a neighbourhood park as we journey with Tessa over two or three days during this apocalyptic disaster.

    Kat Chan’s set is deceptively simple.
    Pia Johnson/Malthouse Theatre

    J. David Franzke’s sound design is a feat of theatrical audio engineering. Headphones immerse the audience within a binaural sonic landscape.

    Every sound Arundell makes on stage is emphasised, interwoven with a cacophony of bird squawks, cries, songs and calls.

    Microphones and speakers are all cleverly disguised as wooden bird boxes, adding a beautiful conceptual touch to the never-seen – but absolutely present – flocks of murderous birds.

    Post-pandemic theatre

    In the original story, the male protagonist strategises his defence against the birds using logic and reasoning, as a post-World War Two disability limits him physically.

    Fox’s adaptation nods to this part of the original story by a subtle reference to Tessa’s husband’s mental health, and that he has been “let go” (or, as he interjects, “let down”) by his company.

    It is clear Tessa must use her wits to protect her family, including her husband. She has no one she can rely on but herself.

    As this story reaches a ghastly and violent climax, I was struck by the similarities to some of the experience of pandemic lockdowns, still so recent in our collective memory.

    Creative responses that reflect and depict this time are only really just beginning to emerge on Australian stages.

    Maybe it was the effect of wearing headphones while watching a live performance that catapulted me back to the isolated feeling of only connecting with others outside my home through the digital realm.

    The Birds evokes the isolation felt during COVID lockdowns.
    Pia Johnson/Malthouse Theatre

    Tessa barricades her frightened family in her house to fend off this pervasive and ever-present threat. She counts her food supplies and how long they might last, operates under a curfew controlled by the tides, and tunes into the radio to hear what the government has to say about the bird situation. I was taken immediately back to a time of daily COVID numbers and premier briefings, toilet paper rationing and social distancing.

    The possibility of what The Birds represents is manifold, with ideas of climate disaster, genocide, war and terrorism all present in the storytelling and the richly evocative text.

    The simple final image of a woman reclining on a chair, calmly reciting names of bird species as she smokes a cigarette and awaits the dread that will come in the night is a powerful symbol of quiet fortitude.

    Perhaps in this post pandemic context, it is Tessa’s determination in the face of this catastrophe that might speak to us of resilience in the face of seemingly impossible disasters and how we must continue to adapt, fight and resist to survive.

    The Birds is at Malthouse Theatre, Melbourne, until June 7.

    Sarah Austin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Vivid, thrilling and ghastly: new theatrical adaptation of The Birds evokes climate disaster, terrorism and lockdown – https://theconversation.com/vivid-thrilling-and-ghastly-new-theatrical-adaptation-of-the-birds-evokes-climate-disaster-terrorism-and-lockdown-254819

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: How should central banks respond to US tariffs? The RBA provides some clues

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stella Huangfu, Associate professor, University of Sydney

    Lightspring/Shutterstock

    With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the United States has signalled a return to aggressive tariff policies, upending economic forecasts around the world.

    This leaves central banks with a tricky dilemma: how to respond when inflation and global growth are being shaped by political decisions rather than economic fundamentals?

    Tariffs lift import prices and disrupt trade, which could lead to higher inflation. But they can also dampen consumer demand and undermine business confidence, which would slow economic growth.

    This leaves central banks balancing two opposing forces – do they raise interest rates to control inflation, or cut interest rates to support growth?

    Three big shocks in a row

    This week, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock addressed this challenge in a press conference after cutting interest rates for the second time this year.

    She described the current period as one of “shifting and unusual uncertainty”.

    Central banks, she noted, have faced three major shocks in succession: the global financial crisis, the COVID pandemic, and now the fallout from Trump’s trade policies.

    Each, she said, is different – this latest one being political in nature and harder to categorise. Bullock stressed the difficulty of judging whether such shocks are supply-driven or demand-driven, or both, and emphasised the need to prepare for a range of outcomes.

    So, the Reserve Bank took the unusual step of outlining three alternative global scenarios – trade war, trade peace, and a central baseline. Each one has distinct implications for Australian monetary policy.

    It’s a clear example of how central banks can remain flexible and forward-looking in a world where the next shock may look nothing like the last.

    Looking at three global scenarios

    1. Trade war (escalation)

    In this scenario laid out in the Reserve Bank’s quarterly statement on monetary policy, the US imposes sweeping new tariffs. That prompts retaliation and a slowdown in global trade. Supply chains are hit and business confidence falls.

    Australia would feel the consequences quickly: weaker export demand, rising import prices, and a difficult mix of slower growth and temporary inflation. Here, the Reserve Bank would likely look past short-term price increases and focus on deteriorating demand. A rate cut would become more likely, despite inflation being above target in the short run.

    2. Trade peace (de-escalation)

    If the US backs away from new tariffs and tensions ease, global confidence improves and trade stabilises. Australia benefits from stronger global demand, a rebound in commodity exports and rising investment.

    In this setting, inflation rises gradually due to higher activity – not import price shocks. The Reserve Bank might hold rates steady, or even consider hiking rates if inflation pressures build. But this scenario also carries risk: if the recovery is faster than expected, interest rates may be left low for too long.

    3. Baseline scenario

    In the bank’s central case, trade tensions persist but do not escalate. Global growth slows moderately and firms adjust to ongoing strain in supply chains.

    Australia sees subdued but stable economic growth. Inflation remains within the 2-3% target band in the near term, and the Reserve Bank would stay open to either raising or lowering interest rates, depending on how risks evolve.

    Other central banks face similar choices

    Australia’s central bank is not alone in navigating these challenges.

    At the Bank of England, the decision to cut rates in May showed a divided Monetary Policy Committee. While the majority supported a 0.25% cut, two members – including trade expert Swati Dhingra – called for a larger 0.5% move to better support growth. The split highlights the difficulty of gauging how aggressively to respond in an uncertain environment.

    In the US, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has warned of the risks posed by Trump’s new tariffs. Speaking in April, Powell said the impact could be “larger than expected”, threatening both growth and inflation.

    With trade policy largely out of the Fed’s hands, he noted, the central bank must still monitor developments on tariffs closely because of their potential to disrupt both employment and prices.

    The road ahead

    The re-emergence of US tariffs adds to the complexity facing central banks. As Bullock noted, this is not just another economic shock – it’s a politically driven one, which is harder to model and forecast.

    The Reserve Bank’s response offers a practical framework: map out potential scenarios, weigh their implications and stand ready to move. In an uncertain world, monetary policy must be based not just on data, but on judgement, flexibility and contingency planning.




    Read more:
    What are tariffs?


    Stella Huangfu does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How should central banks respond to US tariffs? The RBA provides some clues – https://theconversation.com/how-should-central-banks-respond-to-us-tariffs-the-rba-provides-some-clues-257329

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Half the remaining habitat of Australia’s most at-risk species is outside protected areas

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Ward, Lecturer, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University

    Land clearing for agriculture poses a real threat to many species. Rich Carey/Shutterstock

    More and more Australian species are being listed as critically endangered – the final stage before extinction in the wild. Hundreds of species of plants and animals are now at this point.

    For a species to be critically endangered, it is on death’s door. Its numbers must have shrunk alarmingly and its outlook is bleak. Why? One common reason is habitat loss. If we convert bushland or swamps into farmland or suburbs, we reduce how much space species have to survive.

    Our new research examines how much habitat is left for 305 of Australia’s critically endangered species – more than 70% of the total. Alarmingly, we found almost half the remaining habitat is outside the protected area estate. That means the last remaining areas where these species are clinging on could very easily be cleared.

    The good news? We now know exactly which areas most need to be safeguarded. If we protected an extra 0.5% of Australia’s land mass, we could slash the risk to hundreds of species approaching the point of no return. This is a relatively small amount compared to the 22.5% of Australia that already has some form of protection. The Australian government has committed to increasing this to 30% by 2030.

    What did we do?

    Australia now has 426 critically endangered species, including plants, fish, frogs, reptiles, mammals, birds and other animals. We focused on 305 of these species – those clinging to life in six or fewer isolated patches of habitat across Australia.

    We then worked with 18 scientists whose expertise covers these 305 species to refine the maps of habitat for species to ensure we used the most accurate and current data available.

    Once we had these maps, we compared them to maps of Australia’s network of protected areas. When we found unprotected habitat, we assessed whether it might be appealing for clearing and conversion into farmland.

    When we put this data together, we found something startling – and encouraging. Our work found approximately 85,000 square kilometres of habitat (about 1% of Australia’s land area) urgently needs protection and management to halt extinction for these 305 species.

    This map shows Australia’s existing protected areas in green. Suitable but unprotected habitat for our critically endangered species are coloured from dark blue through to yellow. The lighter the colour, the more species this habitat is suited to. Islands not to scale.
    Michelle Ward, CC BY-NC-ND

    Alarmingly, half of this vital habitat currently lies outside existing protected areas, with 39 species having none of their remaining habitat in the protected area estate. Habitat in protected areas is safer, but not completely safe. Fuel reduction burns, invasive species and even harvesting can affect species inside protected areas.

    Consider the Margaret River burrowing crayfish (Engaewa pseudoreducta), Lyon’s grassland striped skink (Austroablepharus barrylyoni) and the Rosewood keeled snail (Ordtrachia septentrionalis). Each of these critically endangered species survives in one or two tiny patches of habitat outside the protected area estate. They could be wiped out by something as simple as a highway expansion or a new suburban development.

    Some remaining habitat is especially precious, as it could support several critically endangered species at once. These include areas west of Atherton in Queensland as well as areas around Tumbarumba in New South Wales and Campbell Town in Tasmania.

    Other hotspots include Lord Howe Island, Macquarie Island, Christmas Island, Norfolk Island and its neighbour Phillip Island. Many critically endangered species with small ranges survive here, including Suter’s striped glass-snail, Christmas Island spleenwort and the Lord Howe Island phasmid (giant stick insect). While most of these islands are well protected, their conservation programs need to be well funded to deal with ongoing threats.

    The critically endangered Lyon’s grassland striped skink is now found only on small fragments of habitat southwest of Cairns.
    Conrad Hoskin, CC BY-NC-ND

    The last of them

    When a species goes extinct, we lose an entire set of genes, traits, behaviours and history. Despite recent headlines, extinction is forever.

    In 2022, the Australian government pledged to bring an end to extinction of the continent’s unique species.

    This is easier said than done – extinctions are continuing, especially among invertebrates.

    Our maps show the last known areas where these 305 species are holding on. If nothing is done, some of these areas of habitat will likely be converted to farming or grazing land. The most logical thing to do is to preserve and manage this habitat as quickly as possible.

    The challenge is ownership. At present, much of this habitat occurs on private land (about 17,000 km²) or in state forests (about 7,000 km²) which often does not stop activities that cause habitat destruction, such as native forest logging. Other areas are under different forms of tenure which often lack stringent conservation measures.

    Protecting species on private lands requires careful negotiation and incentives for landholders. The government doesn’t have to buy the land – it just has to find ways to conserve it. Australia now has many good examples of conservation on private land.

    Agricultural potential poses another challenge. More than half (55%) of the habitat we identified has a clear overlap with lands suitable for farming or grazing. These preferred areas are usually flat and on fertile soils.

    Conversion of habitat to farms or paddocks is a major reason why Australia is still one of the top land-clearing nations. In just one year, 6,800 km² of woody vegetation was cleared in Queensland – largely to make way for agriculture.

    What can we do?

    Our research gives policymakers detailed, geographically specific and actionable information on vital areas of habitat remaining for more than 70% of Australia’s critically endangered species.

    These maps can help shape decisions on land management, expansion of protected areas and where biodiversity stewardship programs should be prioritised.

    Policymakers must find effective incentives for landowners to preserve species on their land and rigorously enforce regulations to prevent illegal clearing.

    Australia stands at a crossroads. The action (or inaction) of decision makers will change the fate of hundreds of critically endangered species. We know where these species are just holding on. The question is whether we can get to them in time.

    Michelle Ward has received funding from various sources including the Australian Research Council, the Queensland Department of Environment and Science, WWF Australia, and the federal government’s National Environmental Science Program, and has advised both state and federal government on conservation policy.

    James Watson has received funding from the Australian Research Council, National Environmental Science Program, South Australia’s Department of Environment and Water, Queensland’s Department of Environment, Science and Innovation as well as from Bush Heritage Australia, Queensland Conservation Council, Australian Conservation Foundation, The Wilderness Society and Birdlife Australia. He serves on the scientific committee of BirdLife Australia and has a long-term scientific relationship with Bush Heritage Australia and Wildlife Conservation Society. He serves on the Queensland government’s Land Restoration Fund’s Investment Panel as the Deputy Chair.

    ref. Half the remaining habitat of Australia’s most at-risk species is outside protected areas – https://theconversation.com/half-the-remaining-habitat-of-australias-most-at-risk-species-is-outside-protected-areas-256818

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for May 23, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on May 23, 2025.

    Half the remaining habitat of Australia’s most at-risk species is outside protected areas
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Ward, Lecturer, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University Land clearing for agriculture poses a real threat to many species. Rich Carey/Shutterstock More and more Australian species are being listed as critically endangered – the final stage before extinction in the wild. Hundreds of species of

    How should central banks respond to US tariffs? The RBA provides some clues
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stella Huangfu, Associate professor, University of Sydney Lightspring/Shutterstock With the return of Donald Trump to the White House, the United States has signalled a return to aggressive tariff policies, upending economic forecasts around the world. This leaves central banks with a tricky dilemma: how to respond when

    Vivid, thrilling and ghastly: new theatrical adaptation of The Birds evokes climate disaster, terrorism and lockdown
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Austin, Senior Lecturer in Theatre, The University of Melbourne Pia Johnson/Malthouse Theatre Malthouse’s new production of The Birds is a thrillingly realised take on the 1952 short story by Daphne Du Maurier. Adapted by Louise Fox and directed by Matthew Lutton, this vivid realisation is a

    Air New Zealand to resume Auckland-Nouméa flights from November
    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk Air New Zealand has announced it plans to resume its Auckland-Nouméa flights from November, almost one and a half years after deadly civil unrest broke out in the French Pacific territory. “Air New Zealand is resuming its Auckland-Nouméa service starting 1 November 2025. Initially, flights will

    Budget 2025: Pacific Ministry faces major cuts, yet new initiatives aim for development
    By ‘Alakihihifo Vailala of PMN News Funding for New Zealand’s Ministry for Pacific Peoples (MPP) is set to be reduced by almost $36 million in Budget 2025. This follows a cut of nearly $26 million in the 2024 budget. As part of these budgetary savings, the Tauola Business Fund will be closed. But, $6.3 million

    Air New Zealand to resume Auckland-Nouméa flights from November
    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk Air New Zealand has announced it plans to resume its Auckland-Nouméa flights from November, almost one and a half years after deadly civil unrest broke out in the French Pacific territory. “Air New Zealand is resuming its Auckland-Nouméa service starting 1 November 2025. Initially, flights will

    Budget 2025: Pacific Ministry faces major cuts, yet new initiatives aim for development
    By ‘Alakihihifo Vailala of PMN News Funding for New Zealand’s Ministry for Pacific Peoples (MPP) is set to be reduced by almost $36 million in Budget 2025. This follows a cut of nearly $26 million in the 2024 budget. As part of these budgetary savings, the Tauola Business Fund will be closed. But, $6.3 million

    Why Donald Trump has put Asia on the precipice of a nuclear arms race
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Langford, Executive Director, Security & Defence PLuS and Professor, UNSW Sydney For the past 75 years, America’s nuclear umbrella has been the keystone that has kept East Asia’s great‑power rivalries from turning atomic. President Donald Trump’s second‑term “strategic reset” now threatens to crack that arch. By

    Corroboree 2000, 25 years on: the march for Indigenous reconciliation has left a complicated legacy
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Heidi Norman, Professor of Aboriginal political history, Faculty of Arts, Design and Architecture, Convenor: Indigenous Land & Justice Research Group, UNSW Sydney First Nations people please be advised this article speaks of racially discriminating moments in history, including the distress and death of First Nations people. On

    KiwiSaver at a crossroads: budget another missed opportunity to fix NZ’s underperforming retirement scheme
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron Gilbert, Professor of Finance, Auckland University of Technology Lynn Grieveson/Getty Images When KiwiSaver was introduced in 2007 it was built on a stark reality: New Zealand Super alone will not be enough for most people to retire with dignity. As the population ages and the cost

    Deaf President Now! traces the powerful uprising that led to Deaf rights in the US – now again under threat
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gemma King, ARC DECRA Fellow in Screen Studies, Senior Lecturer in French Studies, Australian National University Archival footage shows Tim Rarus, Greg Hlibok, Bridgetta Bourne-Firl and Jerry Covell, in Apple TV+ Deaf President Now! Apple TV+ In March 1988, students of the world’s only Deaf university started

    Head knocks and ultra-violence: viral games Run It Straight and Power Slap put sports safety back centuries
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Yorke, Lecturer in sport management, Western Sydney University runitstraight24/instagram.com, The Conversation, CC BY Created in Australia, “Run It Straight” is a new, ultra-violent combat sport. Across a 20×4 metre grassed “battlefield,” players charge at full speed toward one another. Alternating between carrying the ball (ball runner)

    NZ Budget 2025: funding growth at the expense of pay equity for women could cost National in the long run
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer Curtin, Professor of Politics and Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Pay equity protest outside parliament on budget day, May 22 2025. Getty Images In 1936, when the National Party was created through a merger of the United and Reform parties, there was a recognition

    Australian roads are getting deadlier – pedestrians and males are among those at greater risk
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor & Principal Fellow in Urban Risk & Resilience, The University of Melbourne At least ten people died in fatal crashes earlier this month in a single 48-hour period on Victorian roads. It was the latest tragic demonstration of the mounting road trauma in

    There is a growing number of ‘super-sized’ schools. Does the number of students matter?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Rowe, Associate Professor in Education, Deakin University LBeddoe/Shutterstock Earlier this week, The Sydney Morning Herald reported one of Sydney’s top public high schools had more than 2,000 students for the first time, thanks to the booming population in the area. This follows similar reports of other

    From peasant fodder to posh fare: how snails and oysters became luxury foods
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Garritt C. Van Dyk, Senior Lecturer in History, University of Waikato An Oyster cellar in Leith John Burnet, 1819; National Galleries of Scotland, Photo: Antonia Reeve Oysters and escargot are recognised as luxury foods around the world – but they were once valued by the lower classes

    Govt should defuse NZ’s social timebomb – but won’t
    We have been handed a long and protracted recession with few signs of growth and prosperity. Budget 2025 signals more of the same, writes Susan St John. ANALYSIS: By Susan St John With the coalition government’s second Budget being unveiled, we should question where New Zealand is heading. The 2024 Budget laid out the strategy.

    Punitive criminal libel charge against Samoan journalist draws flurry of criticism
    Pacific Media Watch A punitive defamation charge filed against one of Samoa’s most experienced and trusted journalists last week has sparked a flurry of criticism over abuse of power and misuse of a law that has long been heavily criticised as outdated. Talamua Online senior journalist Lagi Keresoma, who is also president of the Journalists

    Grattan on Friday: if Ley and Littleproud find a way to cohabit, it will be a tense household
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Remember that cliche about the Nationals tail wagging the Liberal dog? That tail wagged very vigorously this week, and smashed a lot of crockery, as it sought to bring Liberal leader Sussan Ley to heel. In a gesture of overreach,

    Legal academic says Samoa’s criminal libel law should go after charge
    By Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist An Auckland University law academic says Samoa’s criminal libel law under which a prominent journalist has been charged should be repealed. Lagi Keresoma, the first female president of the Journalists Association of Samoa (JAWS) and editor of Talamua Online, was charged under the Crimes Act 2013 on Sunday

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Disaster or digital spectacle? The dangers of using floods to create social media content

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samuel Cornell, PhD Candidate in Public Health & Community Medicine, School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney

    Almost 700 rescues had been carried out in New South Wales by Friday morning as
    record-breaking rainfall pounds the state. Tragically, four people have died in floodwaters.

    Amid the chaos, videos posted on social media show people deliberately entering or standing above swollen rivers and flooded roads. It is a pattern of dangerous behaviour that occurs frequently during natural disasters in Australia.

    Filming unsafe acts for social media is not just risky for participants. It may inspire copycat behaviour, and, if things go wrong, can endanger the lives of rescuers. It’s a public health problem which requires new remedies.

    Selfies in floods: a risky business

    During a flood, water can be deceiving. Just 15cm of water can knock an adult off their feet or cause a car to lose traction and float. Submerged debris and contaminated water add to the dangers.

    Emergency services routinely warn the public not to enter floodwaters – on foot or in vehicles. But many people ignore the warnings, including those out to create social media content.

    In a startling example posted on Tiktok during the current floods, a young man stands on a mossy log which has fallen over a flooded river. The video, accompanied by dramatic music, shows swirling floodwaters surging beneath him. One wrong step, and the man could easily have drowned.

    In other examples posted on Tiktok in recent days, a woman wades through murky floodwaters, and a person films as the car they are travelling in drives down a flooded road.

    Similar behaviour was observed during floods in Townsville earlier this year. Residents filmed themselves diving and wading into floodwaters, and towing each other on inflatable rafts.

    And during ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, social media was filled with images of people in Queensland surfing dangerous swells and wading in rough surf.

    A worrying trend

    Our research explores the links between social media and adverse health outcomes.

    Selfie-related injury has become a public health concern. People are increasingly venturing off-trail, seeking out attractive but hazardous locations such as cliff edges and coastal rock platforms.

    These behaviours can lead to injury and death. They can also put emergency services personnel in harm’s way. In 2021, for example, a woman fell into a swollen river on Canberra’s outskirts while trying to take a selfie with friends, prompting a police official to warn:

    There is no photo or social media post that is worth risking your life to get. Any water rescue puts the lives of not only of yourself but those of emergency services personnel at risk.

    Getting to grips with the problem

    How should the problem be tackled? Previous research by others has recommended “no-selfie zones”, barriers, and signs as ways to prevent selfie incidents. But our research suggests these measures may not be enough.

    The phenomenon of selfie-related incidents requires a public health approach. This entails addressing the behaviour through prevention, education, and other interventions such as via social media platforms.

    In the latest floods, unsafe behaviour has occurred despite a series of official flood, weather and other warnings. Residents also continue to drive into floodwaters, despite repeated pleas from authorities.

    Official warnings compete with – and can lose out to – more emotionally compelling, visually rich content. If the public sees other people behaving recklessly and apparently unharmed, then even clear, fact-based warnings can be ignored.

    This is especially true in communities experiencing “alert-fatigue” after having gone through disasters before.

    Sometimes, vague terminology in warnings means the messages don’t necessarily cut through. We’ve seen this before in relation to surf safety. Technical phrases such as “hazardous swell” don’t change behaviour if people don’t understand what they mean.

    For warnings to work, they need to be clear and provide instruction – stating what the danger actually is, and what to explicitly do, or not do.

    For social media users, that might mean spelling out not to go into floodwaters to capture content for social media.

    We’ve also previously called on social media companies to be held more accountable for the dangerous content they publish – by flagging risky content and supporting in-app safety messaging, especially at high-risk locations or during extreme weather events.

    What to do right now

    If you’re in or near a flood zone, follow guidance from emergency services to keep yourself and your loved ones safe.

    When it comes to using social media in an emergency:

    • stay entirely out of floodwaters, even for a quick photo

    • think before you post. Your safety is more important than your content. No post is worth risking your life

    • avoid glamourising risk. Sharing risky photos or videos can influence others to do the same, potentially with worse outcomes

    • follow official advice. Floodwaters are unpredictable. Warnings are issued for a reason

    • use your platform for good. Share verified information, support affected communities and help amplify safety messages.

    As extreme weather becomes more frequent in Australia under climate change, so too will the urge to document them. But we risk turning disasters into digital spectacles – at the expense of our lives and that of rescuers.

    Samuel Cornell receives funding from Meta Platforms, Inc. His research is supported by a University of New South Wales Sydney, University Postgraduate Award. His research is supported by Royal Life Saving Society – Australia to aid in the prevention of drowning. Research at Royal Life Saving Society – Australia is supported by the Australian government. He has been affiliated with Surf Life Saving Australia and Surf Life Saving NSW in a paid and voluntary capacity.

    Amy Peden receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Meta Platforms, and NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. She holds an honorary affiliation with Royal Life Saving Society – Australia.

    ref. Disaster or digital spectacle? The dangers of using floods to create social media content – https://theconversation.com/disaster-or-digital-spectacle-the-dangers-of-using-floods-to-create-social-media-content-257350

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: The death of Jelena Dokic’s father reveals the ‘complex and difficult grief’ of losing an estranged parent

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lauren Breen, Professor of Psychology, Curtin University

    Grieving the death of a parent is often considered a natural part of life. But there are added layers of complexity when you had a difficult or estranged relationship.

    This week former tennis star Jelena Dokic confirmed the death of her father and former coach Damir, whose verbal, physical and emotional abuse she revealed in 2009 and further detailed in her 2017 autobiography. They had been estranged for a decade.

    In a social media post on Thursday, Dokic wrote about her “conflicting and complex emotions and feelings” around his death:

    no matter how how hard, difficult and in the last 10 years even non existent [sic] our relationship and communication was, it is never easy losing a parent […] The loss of an estranged parent comes with a difficult and complicated grief.

    Dokic’s news is a reminder that, when a parent dies, not all of us get to grieve a stable, warm and comforting relationship.

    As in her case, a strained relationship might even be marked by maltreatment or abuse. Relinquishing contact can sometimes be the best, albeit difficult, choice.

    When the parent dies, the loss can feel surprisingly complex. We may be grieving both the literal death of the parent and the figurative death, of what should have been – what we wished for and desired.

    Death can spark more than sadness

    Grief is not a single emotion. Usually, it involves a combination of many. Common feelings can include sadness, guilt, anger and even relief.

    In sharing her social media post, Dokic has said among conflicting emotions she’s chosen to “focus on a good memory”.

    Grief can reach beyond feelings. It can disrupt eating and sleeping habits and impair memory and concentration.

    Deaths can also affect relationships.

    For example, when grieving, someone might receive a lot of social support from family, friends and colleagues. But for others, the support they’d like might not be forthcoming. The lack of support is yet another loss and is linked to worse physical and mental health.

    Family members may also react in different ways. It might be jarring or alienating if your sibling responds differently, for example by sharing fond memories of a parent you found harsh and distant.

    A death can also affect your financial standing. A grieving person may be burdened with outstanding bills and funeral payments. Or the impact can be positive, via windfalls from insurance and inheritance.

    Family members may grieve in different ways.
    Meteoritka/Shutterstock

    What if I don’t feel sad?

    With grief, it’s OK to feel how you feel. You might think you’re grieving the “wrong” way, but it can be helpful to remember there are no strict rules about how to grieve “right”.

    Be gentle on yourself. And give other family members, who may have had a different relationship with the parent and therefore grieve differently, the same courtesy.

    It’s also OK to feel conflicted about going to the funeral.

    In this case, take the time to think through the pros and cons of attending. It might be helpful in processing your grief and in receiving support. Or you might feel that attending would be too difficult or emotionally unsafe for you.

    If you choose to attend, it can help to go with someone who can support you through it.

    In an estranged relationship, the adult child might not even find out about the death of the parent for many weeks or months afterwards. This means there is no option of attending the funeral or other mourning rituals. Consider making your own rituals to help process the loss and grief.

    What if I do feel sad – but still hurt?

    It can be really confusing to feel sad about the death of a parent with whom we had a difficult, strained or violent relationship.

    Identifying where these conflicting thoughts and feelings come from can help.

    You might need to acknowledge and grieve the loss of your parent, the loss of the parent-child relationship you deserved, and even the loss of hoped-for apologies and reconnections.

    In many cases, it is a combination of these losses that can make the grief more challenging.

    It may also be difficult to get the social support you need from family, friends and colleagues.

    These potential helpers might be unaware of the difficulties you experienced in the relationship, or incorrectly believe troubled relationships are easier to grieve.

    It can feel like a taboo to speak ill of the dead, but it might be helpful to be clear about the relationship and your needs so that people can support you better.

    In fact, grieving the death of people with whom we have challenging, conflicting or even abusive relationships can lead to more grief than the death of those with whom we shared a warm, loving and more straightforward relationship.

    If the loss is particularly difficult and your grief doesn’t change and subside over time, seek support from your general practitioner. They might be able to recommend a psychologist or counsellor with expertise in grief.

    Alternatively, you can find certified bereavement practitioners who have specialised training in grief support online or seek telephone support from Griefline on 1300 845 745.

    Lauren Breen receives funding from Healthway and has previously received funding from Wellcome Trust, Australian Research Council, Department of Health (Western Australia), Silver Chain, iCare Dust Diseases Board (New South Wales), and Cancer Council (Western Australia). She is on the board of Lionheart Camp for Kids, is a member of Grief Australia, and a Fellow of the Australian Psychological Society.

    ref. The death of Jelena Dokic’s father reveals the ‘complex and difficult grief’ of losing an estranged parent – https://theconversation.com/the-death-of-jelena-dokics-father-reveals-the-complex-and-difficult-grief-of-losing-an-estranged-parent-257324

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Starving’ masked Palestine protesters condemn Luxon’s Gaza ‘appeasement’

    Asia Pacific Report

    Protesting New Zealanders donned symbolic masks modelled on a Palestinian artist’s handiwork in Auckland’s Takutai Square today to condemn Israel’s starvation as war weapon against Gaza and the NZ prime minister’s weak response.

    Coming a day after the tabling of Budget 2025 in Parliament, peaceful demonstrators wore hand-painted masks inspired by Gaza-based Palestinian artist Reem Arkan, who is fighting for her life alongside hundreds of thousands of the displaced Gazans.

    The “bodies” represented more than 53,000 Palestinians killed by Israel’s brutal 19-month war on Gaza.

    The protest coincided with Prime Minister Christopher Luxon addressing the Trans-Tasman Business Circle in Auckland.

    The demonstrators said they chose this moment and location to “highlight the alarmingly tepid response” by the New Zealand government to what global human rights organisations — such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch — have branded as war crimes and acts of collective punishment amounting to genocide.

    “This week, we heard yet another call for Israel to abide by international law. This is not leadership. It’s appeasement,” said a spokesperson, Olivia Coote.

    “The time for statements has long passed. What we are witnessing in Gaza is a humanitarian catastrophe, and New Zealand must impose meaningful sanctions.

    “Israel’s actions, including the deliberate targeting of civilian infrastructure, forced displacement, and obstruction of humanitarian aid, constitute grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions of which we are signatories.”

    A self-portrait by Palestinian artist Reem Arkan who depicts the suffering of Gaza – and the beauty – in spite of the savagery of the Israel attacks. Image: Insta/@artist_reemarkan

    Green Party Co-Leader Chlöe Swarbrick challenged Prime Minister Luxon in Parliament over his government’s response earlier this week, saying: “We’ve had lots of words. We need action.”

    Luxon claimed that sanctions were in place — but the only measure taken has been a travel ban on 12 extremist Israeli settlers from the West Bank.

    “This is an action that does nothing to protect the more than two million Palestinians in Gaza who face daily bombardment, siege, and starvation,” Coote said.

    The protesters are calling on the New Zealand government to act immediately by:

    • Imposing sanctions on Israel; and
    • Suspending all diplomatic and trade relations with Israel until there is an end to hostilities and full compliance with international humanitarian law.

    “This government must not be complicit in atrocities through silence and inaction,” Coote said. “The people of Aotearoa New Zealand demand leadership as the world watches a genocide unfold in real time.”

    A street theatre protester demonstrates today against starvation as a weapon of war as deployed by Israel in its brutal war on Gaza. Image: APR

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: Colonial-era borders create conflict in Africa’s oceans – how to resolve them

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Ifesinachi Okafor-Yarwood, Lecturer in Sustainable Futures, University of St Andrews

    Africa has 38 coastal and island nations. Their maritime industries – including energy, tourism, maritime transport, shipping and fishing – play a crucial role in developing these nations.

    Key to harnessing these resources are Africa’s maritime boundaries – lines on a map showing the legal divisions of the ocean between neighbouring coastal states.

    Some of these boundaries were created by colonial powers and kept after independence. Their purpose was to achieve territorial security and ensure the exclusive exploitation of resources and to maintain navigational freedom.

    But Africa’s maritime boundaries sometimes lead to conflict, prevent cooperation on resource management and create room for maritime crimes, like illegal fishing. This is because they are often contested. Countries have overlapping claims and varying interests in resource exploration. This is common in maritime areas rich in oil, gas and fisheries, and deep seabed resources.

    In our recent paper we found that using international law to resolve maritime boundaries does not always bring peace, especially when it results in ceding the disputed area to one party. It can result in animosity between countries and breed room for continued distrust among peoples.

    Today, Africa has the most unresolved maritime boundary disputes in the world and the lowest number of settled boundary disputes.

    As more ocean resources are discovered, climate change may heighten disputes. Rising sea levels can gradually submerge maritime zones, potentially affecting the baselines from which these zones are measured. This could create uncertainty or trigger new conflicts.

    In our paper, we suggest a collaborative approach to resolving maritime disputes. We hope that this will help prevent many African countries from missing out on the benefits of their oceans.

    Price of disputed boundaries

    Disagreements over maritime boundaries can have many negative effects.

    Research has shown that criminal activities tend to increase in disputed maritime boundaries. For instance, illegal fishers are aware that because there is dispute over a border, there will also be enforcement gaps.

    Countries in dispute will also not work together and will not be sending patrols to contested areas. For instance, in 2016, a Chinese vessel escaped into Sierra Leone to avoid capture. When Guinean naval forces boarded the vessel for enforcement, there was an exchange of fire and 11 Guineans were detained by Sierra Leone.

    When boundaries are disputed, it also means that local fishers are likely to encroach into neighbouring waters, often unknowingly, in search of better catches. Given the significance of fisheries to coastal livelihoods and the extent of depletion, this threatens peace and security. It fuels tension between communities and countries over access to dwindling resources.

    Disagreements over maritime boundaries also diminish maritime security cooperation, complicate joint patrols, and divert attention from tackling shared threats such as piracy.

    Colonialism never ended

    Unfortunately, resolving maritime boundary disputes is complicated by a principle in international law known as uti possidetis juris – “as you possess under law”.

    The principle says that when countries argue over borders, international law, built around colonial-era boundaries, is used to decide who gets what. This creates a “winner-takes-all” approach – one side gains control over the disputed area and resources. International courts, like the International Court of Justice and the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, follow the provisions of law reinforcing uti possidetis.

    Our examination of maritime boundary disputes in west and central Africa found that the principle of uti possidetis juris had failed to alleviate maritime boundary tensions. In some cases, it has exacerbated them.

    One example is a maritime dispute between Cameroon and Nigeria decided in 2002. The dispute was over who had control of Bakassi, an oil-rich region, and its maritime frontier.

    The uti possidetis juris principle upheld the lines drawn at the time of Nigeria’s independence and resulted in the ceding of Bakassi to Cameroon. The impact of the resolution lingers. To date, thousands of displaced Bakassi people that returned to Nigeria have yet to be resettled and reintegrated. Disputes also continue between fishers from Nigeria and Cameroonian law enforcement agents. In extreme cases, it results in death, like the alleged killing of 97 Nigerian fishers by Cameroonian marine police.

    The way forward

    In our paper, we recommend that courts, tribunals or disputing countries consider joint management agreements to resolve maritime disputes. Under such agreements, countries share and manage disputed maritime resources.

    These agreements will allow for the joint management of shared resources. It will also encourage cooperation and collaboration in other areas, such as joint operations to combat illegal fishing and piracy. While international courts may apply uti possidetis juris as required by law, countries should be encouraged to negotiate special arrangements – such as joint development agreements – as part of the resolution process. Especially in cases where livelihoods and longstanding community ties risk being disrupted by unilateral decisions or the ceding of disputed areas to one party.

    While not perfect, this approach has already improved cooperation on security and resource use at sea. It has worked in places like Nigeria, São Tomé and Príncipe, Senegal and Guinea-Bissau. Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire also have a joint management framework in place for their shared boundaries to avoid future disputes.

    Prolonged boundary disputes only enable criminal actors to exploit Africa’s resources, undermining collective progress. A shift towards collaborative solutions is essential for achieving a sustainable and prosperous future for the continent.

    Ifesinachi Okafor-Yarwood receives funding from the PEW Charitable Trust and the Research Council of Norway. The St Andrews Research Internship Scheme (StARIS) supported the initial peer-reviewed research.

    Elizabeth Nwarueze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Colonial-era borders create conflict in Africa’s oceans – how to resolve them – https://theconversation.com/colonial-era-borders-create-conflict-in-africas-oceans-how-to-resolve-them-248577

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Vaccines: why these young Africans are hesitant about them and what might change their minds

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Oluwaseyi Dolapo Somefun, Research associate, University of the Western Cape

    Vaccines have proved to be one of the most effective tools in fighting infectious diseases, but convincing people to get vaccinated can be tough. Especially young people.

    During the global COVID-19 pandemic, declared by the World Health Organization on 11 March 2020, many countries reported high levels of vaccine hesitancy among younger population groups. Negative healthcare experiences and general distrust of government have cultivated vaccine hesitancy across Africa. Misleading information about vaccine side-effects on social media adds to this challenge.

    This hesitancy continues today. A 2024 study on adolescents and young adults (aged 10 to 35) in sub-Saharan Africa found a vaccine acceptance rate of just 38.7%.

    These concerns were echoed in a recent study we carried out among 165 young adults in Nigeria, South Africa and Zambia, looking at attitudes towards the COVID-19 vaccine. We wanted to know what could be done to help improve future vaccine acceptance, inform campaigns and prepare for future public health responses.

    Participants were hesitant to be vaccinated, for various reasons, and suggested what policymakers could do to improve vaccine uptake.

    Understanding young people’s perspectives on vaccine hesitancy and what can be done to address this is crucial for improving vaccine acceptance in the future.

    What young adults told us

    Our research gathered data through focus groups and interviews.

    The participants described a fear of injections, uncertainty about side effects, distrust in healthcare systems and rude healthcare workers.

    Some participants were worried about the safety of the COVID-19 vaccine, particularly how it might affect those with pre-existing health conditions.

    Many believed that the vaccine was developed too quickly without sufficient testing and a lack of accessible information.

    Many expressed a strong fear of needles. A young South African woman aged 19 commented:

    I am afraid of injections, so for me, it would be better if there was something that could be taken orally, something you can drink.

    Getting over the hurdle

    We found young people often felt left out of vaccine conversations. They wanted to be part of the solution and make informed choices but needed the right tools and support to do so.

    Participants suggested practical ideas to help boost vaccine acceptance among their peers.

    Several highlighted the importance of assessing individual health status before administering vaccines, to avoid adverse interactions with existing medical conditions and treatments. They believed that situations where vaccines were mistakenly blamed for pre-existing illnesses or ongoing treatments could be avoided.

    Participants suggested innovative strategies to make vaccines more accessibile. Mobile vaccination sites and community-based outreach programmes were some of the suggestions.

    They must introduce mobile clinics, so that people don’t find themselves having to travel long distances to vaccinate. – 18-year-old male, South Africa

    Young people also suggested household visits to people who were immobile because of age, illness or disability.

    Many advocated for non-injectable vaccine options, such as oral medications or microneedle patches, which could improve accessibility and reduce anxiety.

    The oral polio vaccine, which has been widely used in global polio eradication efforts, is an example of a non-injectable vaccine.

    COVID-19 microneedle patch prototypes are being explored for clinical testing.

    The youth urged public figures, including politicians, celebrities and influencers, to publicly endorse the vaccine.

    It would be nice if the president could be shown on television receiving a vaccine so that we can see for ourselves whether he is given the same thing that everyone else receives. – 20-year-old male, South Africa

    More engaging videos, interactive interviews and testimonials from vaccinated individuals could be shared across social media platforms.

    The young people also emphasised the importance of comprehensive training for healthcare providers. They highlighted the need for healthcare professionals to provide respectful and empathetic care. They suggested that, by fostering respectful communication, healthcare providers could create a more welcoming and comfortable environment for their clients.

    In addition, providing vaccine education in schools could educate pupils so that they could make decisions on their own.

    Way forward

    Engaging young people as active participants in shaping public health strategies can help increase vaccine acceptance and ensure a healthier future for all.

    We believe that our findings can be applied in two ways.

    First, to inform the design of tailored interventions that better resonate with young people’s desires and needs, paving the way for increased vaccine uptake and acceptability.

    Second, to highlight areas where young people may need further information and engagement, to better understand some of the broader issues and why some of their recommendations might not be feasible in the short or longer term.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Vaccines: why these young Africans are hesitant about them and what might change their minds – https://theconversation.com/vaccines-why-these-young-africans-are-hesitant-about-them-and-what-might-change-their-minds-249629

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Marathon runners rely on family and experts to succeed, while races rely on passionate volunteers

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Julia Yarkoni, Fellow in Global Journalism, Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto

    This past April, the Boston Marathon attracted more than 32,000 runners and approximately half a million spectators. With such a huge crowd on hand, it’s easy to think that the athletes’ major source of support comes from fans of the sport. More than a million people annually run marathon races, and most of them have a team of people behind them.

    Marathoners rely on the strengths of a community of people. Families, coaches, marathon volunteers, race directors and health professionals dedicate time and energy to the runners’ dreams. And each group protects the health of the athletes in a different way. These unsung heroes make the impossible possible and they do it because the sport of long-distance running is a community endeavour.

    Families lay the foundation; research found that partners are “strikingly co-operative” as the non-running partner often picks up chores and child care uncomplainingly because they believe in the end goal. And a [2023 New York Times] article reported that athletes reciprocate by giving their partner recreational time.

    Running is a lifestyle

    When a family member is training to complete a marathon, families recognize there is safety in sticking together. Registered dietitian Kristy Baumann, owner of Marathon Nutritionist in Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn., has run 13 marathons. She describes how her mother would accompany her when she trained for hours.

    “My mom would bike with me on my long runs,” she says.

    In a 2015 article for Runner’s World, runner Courtney Crandell described how her family made sure she ate, maintained her health insurance and had a ride home after the race.

    Long-distance running draws people together who are not family. Coaches get to know their runners intimately and can prevent racers from ending up in dangerous situations. For example, Molly Monk, an athlete with unpredictable blood pressure, relied on her coach to help her train so that she avoided passing out during the marathon.

    Preparing physically and mentally

    Andy Jones-Wilkins, an American endurance running coach and writer, takes pride in being able to train marathon racers for four to six months because he values his relationships with runners. Jones-Wilkins, 57, is currently coaching 24 athletes scattered across the U.S.

    “My job as a coach is to give them not just the physical but also the mental and emotional tools to not just prepare for the race but to execute and to finish,” he says.

    Jones-Wilkins stays in contact with his athletes to debrief and to discuss with them the next step forward, particularly if they were disappointed on race day.

    Thirty-four years of long-distance running has taught Jones-Wilkins who the true unsung heroes are: “The people who put on these events (race directors) are the heart and soul of this sport.”

    Supporting runners

    Jones-Wilkins’ admiration for race directors led him to write “The Race Director Chronicles,” an online series profiling different race directors. He says they are often unpaid, deal with thousands of race details and invariably face negative feedback. He particularly admires the talent these individuals have for networking.

    Long-distance running brings together introverts and extroverts. Tim Bradley is one of those extroverts. A volunteer co-ordinator specializing in running events in Los Angeles, he works 11 races a year and also created a volunteer registration platform to help other volunteer co-ordinators: “I can’t think of other sports that recruit so many volunteers and are so dependent on them.”

    He typically starts recruitment four months before a race and registers 4,000 volunteers in preparation for race day. Volunteer responsibilities include raising funds, registering runners, building spectator stands, operating refreshment stations, regulating traffic, offering first aid, tracking and publishing results and cleaning up.

    Volunteers at major races go beyond first aid, and prepare volunteers to treat dehydration, heat stroke, low sodium levels and orthopedic injuries. They also provide a sweep medical bus to pick up runners who cannot finish the race.

    More than the run

    Sometimes the most important role a person can play in a marathon runner’s life is to tell them when there’s a higher priority requiring attention than the marathon itself. As a dietitian, Baumann says she encounters young women who struggle with nutrition issues that come to light when they start to train.

    “My job is twofold: helping people fuel for performance, feel their best and finish their race strong but also a lot that comes with it for many people is healing their relationship with food,” she says.

    Marathons get their name from the Greek legend of the messenger Pheidippides, who ran 40 kilometres from the town of Marathon to Athens to announce Greece’s victory over Persia in a battle on the plain of Marathon.

    Today a marathon runner’s successful finish is celebrated by many people who love the sport of long-distance running because its message is that solidarity wins.

    Julia Yarkoni does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Marathon runners rely on family and experts to succeed, while races rely on passionate volunteers – https://theconversation.com/marathon-runners-rely-on-family-and-experts-to-succeed-while-races-rely-on-passionate-volunteers-252581

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The top Democrats leading the fight against Trump’s agenda

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Fernando Pizarro, Lecturer, Department of Journalism, City St. George’s, University of London, City St George’s, University of London

    The first five months of Donald Trump’s second presidency have been brutal for the Democratic party, which has been almost completely unable to stop his aggressive agenda. In March, CNN polling showed the favourability rating for the Democrats at just 29% – a record low in CNN polls dating back to 1992.

    The problem with the Democratic party “isn’t a lack of talent”, says Federico de Jesús, a Democratic strategist and spokesman for Barack Obama’s 2008 presidential campaign who I interviewed for this story. It is a “problem of vision and strategy”, he argues.

    “A lot of people, in theory, agree with the Democrats on a lot of issues. But they don’t necessarily feel comfortable with the direction the party is taking.” De Jesús told me that the Democrats allowed themselves to become identified by “woke issues” by many voters who abandoned them in November.

    However, the Democrats now have some reasons to celebrate. In early April, a Democratic-backed judge called Susan Crawford secured a seat in Wisconsin’s Supreme Court. This kept liberal control of the state’s highest court intact. And a Reuters/Ipsos poll released a few weeks later showed that only 37% of US voters approve of Trump’s handling of the economy.


    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.


    As a Washington political correspondent for almost two decades, I have witnessed how the parties changed the guard after painful election cycles. This time, in the absence of clear leaders, the challenge is quite high for the Democrats.

    But who are the Democrats positioning themselves to lead the struggle against Trump’s policies? The acts of defiance are coming from two fronts: lawmakers in Congress and governors.

    Senate minority leader Charles Schumer has predicted that the Democrats will win back control of the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. “The electorate will desert the Republican candidates who embraced Trump in an overwhelming way”, he said on April 23.

    Others, like California senator Adam Schiff and Maryland congressman Jamie Raskin, are using tactics like holding town halls in strong Republican districts to rally the opposition. Michigan congressman Shri Thanedar even filed articles of impeachment against Trump on April 28, but top Democrats shot down the effort as impractical.

    At the same time, House of Representatives minority leader Hakeem Jeffries is facing an intra-party effort to unseat many long-time lawmakers in solid Democratic districts. David Hogg, vice-chair of the Democratic National Committee, is pledging US$20 million (£15 million) to end a culture of “seniority politics” which allows “asleep at the wheel” lawmakers to stay in office.

    But it is New York congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez who has been stealing the headlines. She is setting fundraising records, preparing for an effort to challenge Schumer in a New York senatorial primary in 2028. Surveys this early are rarely predictive, but an April head-to-head poll has Ocasio-Cortez leading Schumer by double digits.

    Three Democrat governors are standing out at present: Pennsylvania’s Josh Shapiro, Minnesota’s Tim Walz and California’s Gavin Newsom.

    Shapiro is very popular with voters in his crucial swing state, and gets good marks even from Republicans on his bipartisan record. Walz was Kamala Harris’s running mate in November’s election, and his campaign performance was well received by his party. Walz is an obvious contender to run for the White House in 2028.

    But Newsom is probably the most notable of the three. While he’s been critical of his party, telling the Hill newspaper on April 21 that Democrats haven’t performed a thorough autopsy of what led to the loss in November, he is seen as someone who can address Republican voters well.

    A second tier of governors include Michigan’s Gretchen Whitmer, whose soft criticism of the Trump administration’s tariff regime saw Trump praise her for doing an “excellent job”. She is joined by Maryland’s Wes Moore, who is young and popular in his state, and JB Pritzker of Illinois.

    Pritzker called for “mass mobilisations and disruption” against Trump at a Democratic event in New Hampshire in late April. “These governors need to stand out”, said de Jesús, “either by fighting against Trump, or either [by] achieving something memorable.”

    Harris had largely kept a low profile since November’s election. But on April 30 she sharply criticised Trump’s first 100 days in office during a speech in San Francisco. She may decide to enter the race for California governor in the summer of 2025.

    Dark horse leader

    There could also be a dark horse leader waiting in the wings: Rahm Emanuel. As former Chicago mayor, Illinois congressman, Obama and Bill Clinton aide and US ambassador to Japan, he is considered a political heavyweight.

    Emanuel has hinted he may again run for public office, while criticising the party’s focus on gender issues and not on “kitchen table” issues as reasons for November’s defeat.

    Progressives chafe at the idea of dialling down the talk about certain policies, such as gender and identity issues. But both Newsom and Emanuel are among those suggesting that the focus should instead shift to defending changes that most voters can relate to.

    At the moment, the party still lacks a clear leader and direction to recover from the 2024 defeat. Newsom, for instance, told the Hill that he doesn’t “know what the party is”. “I’m still struggling with that,” he added.

    According to de Jesús, “people don’t necessarily want someone to just hate Trump, but to identify the issues voters care about and co-opt that populist message.”

    Fernando Pizarro does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The top Democrats leading the fight against Trump’s agenda – https://theconversation.com/the-top-democrats-leading-the-fight-against-trumps-agenda-254869

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Golden Dome: what Trump should learn from Reagan’s ‘Star Wars’ missile defence system plan

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matthew Powell, Teaching Fellow in Strategic and Air Power Studies, University of Portsmouth

    Donald Trump has unveiled plans for a new “next-generation” missile defence system which he says will by “capable even of intercepting missiles launched from the other side of the world, or launched from space”. The US president says “Golden Dome”, which is reportedly partly inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome system that protects the country from missile attacks, will be operational by the end of his current four-year term of office.

    But critics say that it’s much harder to design a defence system to protect a land mass the size of the United States. This is particularly the case in an era characterised by the threat from hypersonic missiles, such as those used by Russia against Ukraine, as well as attacks from space.

    Ever since the first aerial attacks on civilian populations, there have been increasing calls to provide systems that can defend and destroy the potential for an adversary to attack people, governments and infrastructure.

    This developed from relatively basic defence systems, such as those employed by the UK from 1917 to protect London and the south-east of England from attack during the first world war, which developed further to provide a relatively large degree of protection during the Battle of Britain in the summer and autumn of 1940.


    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.


    During the cold war, which followed the dropping of atomic bombs on Japan in 1945, research accelerated globally into ways of providing greater protection against nuclear attack. The most eye-catching of these ideas was the announcement by Ronald Reagan in 1983 of plans to develop a massive (and hugely expensive) land and space-based missile defence system.

    The project, officially called the Strategic Defence Initiative quickly became known colloquially – if slightly mockingly – as “Star Wars”.

    The concept behind the missile defence system was that it would provide a way of effectively making nuclear weapons obsolete. Through the application of a defensive system that incorporated both land and space-based missiles, it was believed that any nuclear warhead fired would be destroyed before it was able to re-enter the Earth’s atmosphere.

    This would not only prevent intercontinental ballistic missiles from striking their intended target, but their destruction so high above the Earth would mean that they would not pose a threat in terms of nuclear radiation and fallout.

    It’s important to note that what was announced by Reagan in March 1983 was not about the development, construction or application of an actual defensive system. It was about funding research into the technologies that would be required for such a system.

    Reagan claimed this was a move to create a more peaceful world by making nuclear weapons effectively obsolete. But it was certainly not seen this way in Moscow.

    It was also something of a half truth. The move should be seen within the wider context of cold war relations and developments. The Reagan administration was seeking to bring the Soviet Union to the negotiating table to discuss reductions in strategic weapons.

    By developing a defensive system that would make strategic nuclear weapons almost obsolete, it was hoped this would force the hand of the Soviets and effectively compel them to agree to talks.

    The ‘Star Wars’ era: Ronald Reagan hoped his planned missile defence system would force the USSR to the negotiating table. He was right.
    Yuryi Abramochkin/RIA Novosti archive., CC BY

    But at the same time, as far as the decision-makers in the Kremlin were concerned, such a system – if developed and deployed – would give the United States a colossal strategic advantage. By the mid-1980s, it was highly unlikely that the Soviets could ever afford the investment in research and development and production capabilities to design their own system. This would mean that the Soviet Union was now highly vulnerable to a nuclear attack, while the US would be protected.

    This would place the United States in a similar position to that which it had enjoyed between 1945 and 1949, when it was the only nation that had the ability launch nuclear weapons. The theory of mutually assured destruction would fall almost overnight, meaning that the US had very little to fear from launching a nuclear attack, as any Soviet response would be futile.

    Given the potential for nuclear blackmail by the all-powerful US, it might cause the Kremlin to consider launching a pre-emptive strike against the US before such a system could be developed or implemented. Rather than making the world a safer place and diminishing the place of nuclear weapons, the world would become more dangerous.

    Pie in the sky?

    The Strategic Defence Initiative never really got off the ground. The initial mockery from large parts of the public of the US hid many real challenges to the development of such a defensive system. The research and development aspect alone came with a very large price tag. This was largely out of step with Reagan’s ideas about small government and limited public spending.

    In order to fund such a programme, money would have to be diverted from other domestic and social programmes, such as health and education. Despite the cold war context, this may well have risked unrest and protest from large swaths of the US population.

    The new technologies that were supposed to be developed as a part of this initiative were untested. It became evident that the only real way to test the efficacy and capability would be to expose the world to a nuclear attack and hope that the theoretical concepts that had been developed actually worked in practice.

    The Soviet Union also found ways of countering the potential developments that may emerge from the Strategic Defence Initiative, making the system almost redundant before it had begun.

    Proposed defence systems, like the Strategic Defence Initiative or the Golden Dome, can appear to be a panacea to defensive worries caused by heavily armed adversaries. Announcements about their development can cause global headlines and speculation about what this means for relations between nations and the international system.

    Take a step back from the US president’s hype, however, and it’s clear that Golden Dome will be hugely expensive and challenging to operate. Moreover it will require significant capabilities that do not yet exist and have yet to be tested operationally.

    Matthew Powell does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Golden Dome: what Trump should learn from Reagan’s ‘Star Wars’ missile defence system plan – https://theconversation.com/golden-dome-what-trump-should-learn-from-reagans-star-wars-missile-defence-system-plan-257372

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada’s skills crisis is growing — here’s how we can fix it

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stephen Murgatroyd, Instructor, Faculty of Education, University of Alberta

    Canada needs to rethink how to prepare Canadians for the workforce. (Shutterstock)

    Canada is facing a significant skills shortage. According to recent data, 77 per cent of Canadian businesses surveyed say they are unable to find suitably skilled candidates for the jobs they have available.

    Even among those who apply with relevant skills, 44 per cent don’t have the required level of proficiency to secure employment. At present, there are about 700,000 job vacancies across the country.

    This mismatch persists despite Canada having one of its largest-ever graduating classes — nearly 360,000 students from colleges, universities and trade schools.

    As labour shortages deepen across sectors, the disconnect between formal education and real-world job requirements is becoming harder to ignore.

    Skills shortage will likely worsen

    Canada’s skills shortage is expected to worsen in the coming years. Between now and 2028, 700,000 workers in the skilled trades are due to retire.

    Canada’s antiquated apprenticeship system is struggling to produce enough workers to fill this gap. It is slow, outdated and has low completion rates: just 32 per cent of male and 35 per cent of female candidates complete their training.

    Some employers are losing confidence in using qualifications as a basis for hiring.
    (Shutterstock)

    Completing an apprenticeship can take up to four years in Canada, while many other nations have much higher completion rates in two years or less.

    It is not just trades that Canada has challenges with. If current trends continue, Canada is projected to face a shortage of 100,000 nurses by 2030. Significant shortages are also expected in technology-related positions, construction engineering and K-12 education, where demand for teachers and school administrators is rising.

    Meanwhile, rising demand is expected for jobs related to artificial intelligence and advanced manufacturing and supply chain management.

    Rethinking how to prepare people for work

    Some employers are losing confidence in using qualifications as a basis for hiring. Increasingly, they feel degrees and diplomas don’t adequately prepare people for work.

    As a result, some organizations have moved to skills-based or competency-based hiring where candidates share skills portfolios and work testimonials to secure a position. As of 2024, approximately 80 per cent of Canadian companies have implemented some form of skills-based hiring practices, up from 74 per cent in 2023.




    Read more:
    Employers should use skill-based hiring to find hidden talent and address labour challenges


    Other companies, like Shopify, take candidates from high school and put them through custom programs designed to ensure they have the skills needed to work in a particular organization or industry.

    Colleges and universities have long been seen as the primary pipelines for skilled labour. But as employer expectations evolve, Canada needs to reconsider the role these institutions play in producing skilled workers.

    Simply expanding existing programs or opening new programs will not solve the underlying problem. What’s needed is a fundamental rethinking of how we prepare Canadians for the workforce.

    5 steps Canada should take

    Canada’s new government, in collaboration with provinces, territories and industry, needs to pursue a five-pronged strategy to address the country’s deepening skills crisis:

    1. Modernize the apprenticeship system.

    Canada must transition from a traditional, time-based apprenticeship model to a flexible, competency-based system. Instead of being tied to rigid journeyperson-to-apprentice ratios and multi-year timelines, learners should be able to demonstrate their skills on demand anywhere, anytime. The goal should be to reduce completion times to two years or less.

    Learning should be accessible through multiple formats, including workplace mentorship, YouTube tutorials, boot camps, micro-credentials and virtual labs. What matters is not where learning takes place, but whether a learner can demonstrate competence.

    Learners should be able to demonstrate their skills on demand anywhere, anytime.
    (Shutterstock)

    2. Accelerate skills recognition through micro-credentials.

    Canada should fast-track the adoption of micro-learning, stackable micro-credentials and competency-based certification. Micro-credentials are short, focused learning experiences that recognize specific skills or knowledge.

    In fields like IT, project management and supply chain management, many professionals succeed without formal academic degrees, instead relying on industry-recognized certifications.

    This model must expand into other sectors, especially health care, manufacturing and finance, where skills-based hiring could address labour shortages.

    3. Recognize informal and experiential learning.

    Millions of Canadians develop valuable skills through informal, self-directed and work-based learning.

    Yet Canada’s prior learning assessment and recognition systems, which convert informal learning into certified learning, remains fragmented, under-utilized and overly bureaucratic.

    Canada needs a nationally coherent, on-demand competency-based assessment system. Certified assessors should be able to validate individuals’ skills and link them to job profiles, occupational standards and credentials. This is not just an equity issue, but is an economic imperative. Other countries are much better at this than Canada is.

    4. Shorten and re-design post-secondary programs.

    The misalignment between program outcomes and labour market demands is well-documented. Closing this gap should be a top priority for post-secondary reform.

    Many college and university programs could be made shorter, more agile and more aligned with workforce needs — especially programs linked to workforce needs and skills in demand.

    Competency-based, work-integrated learning models that are designed with industry and delivered in two- or three-year formats could dramatically increase job readiness.

    5. Incentivize employer investment in upskilling and reskilling.

    Canada needs a stronger incentive framework for continuous learning. Canada’s training credit — a refundable tax credit that helps offset the cost of eligible training fees — helps some individuals, but employers still view training as a cost rather than a driver of productivity, retention and competitiveness.

    A new approach should include tax incentives for employers and employees investing in learning; co-funded, industry-led training partnerships; industry-sponsored micro-credentials; and public recognition for employers who demonstrate leadership in workforce development.

    Canada cannot meet today’s workforce challenges with outdated systems and thinking. Doing more of the same and expecting different results is no longer an option. What is needed is evidence-informed and future-focused reforms that prioritize skills, flexibility and inclusion.

    Stephen Murgatroyd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Canada’s skills crisis is growing — here’s how we can fix it – https://theconversation.com/canadas-skills-crisis-is-growing-heres-how-we-can-fix-it-256864

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: NOAA’s 2025 hurricane forecast warns of a busy season – a storm scientist explains why and what meteorologists are watching

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Colin Zarzycki, Associate Professor of Meteorology and Climate Dynamics, Penn State

    U.S. forecasters are expecting an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with 13 to 19 named storms, and 6 to 10 of those becoming hurricanes.

    Every year, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and other forecasters release preseason outlooks for the Atlantic’s hurricane season, which runs June 1 through November 30.

    So, how do they know what’s likely to happen months in the future?

    I’m an atmospheric scientist who studies extreme weather. Let’s take a look at what Atlantic hurricane forecasts are based on and why those forecasts can shift during the season.

    What goes into a seasonal forecast

    Think of the preseason hurricane forecast as the 30,000-foot view: It can’t predict if or when a storm will hit a particular location, but it can offer insight into how many storms are likely to form throughout the entire Atlantic, and how active the season overall might be.

    These outlooks rely heavily on two large-scale climate factors.

    The first is the sea surface temperature in areas where tropical cyclones tend to form and grow. Hurricanes draw their energy from warm ocean water. So when the Atlantic is unusually warm, as it has been in recent years, it provides more fuel for storms to form and intensify.

    Once water temperatures are 79 degrees Fahrenheit (26 degrees Celsius), hurricanes can form. Most of the Gulf was above that by late May 2025.
    NOAA/NESDIS

    The second key ingredient that meteorologists have their eye on is the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which forecasters refer to as ENSO. ENSO is a climate cycle that shifts every few years between three main phases: El Niño, La Niña, and a neutral space that lives somewhere in between.

    During El Niño, winds over the Atlantic high up in the troposphere – roughly 25,000 to 40,000 feet – strengthen and can disrupt storms and hurricanes. La Niña, on the other hand, tends to reduce these winds, making it easier for storms to form and grow. When you look over the historical hurricane record, La Niña years have tended to be busier than their El Niño counterparts, as we saw from 2020 through 2023.

    We’re in the neutral phase as the 2025 hurricane season begins, and probably will be for at least a few more months. That means upper-level winds aren’t particularly hostile to hurricanes, but they’re not exactly rolling out the red carpet either.

    At the same time, sea surface temperatures are running warmer than the 30-year average, but not quite at the record-breaking levels seen in some recent seasons.

    Taken together, these conditions point to a moderately above-average hurricane season.

    It’s important to emphasize that these factors merely load the dice, tilting the odds toward more or fewer storms, but not guaranteeing an outcome. A host of other variables influence whether a storm actually forms, how strong it becomes, and whether it ever threatens land.

    The smaller influences forecasters can’t see yet

    Once hurricane season is underway, forecasters start paying close attention to shorter-term influences.

    These subseasonal factors evolve quickly enough that they don’t shape the entire season. However, they can noticeably raise or lower the chances for storms developing in the coming two to four weeks.

    One factor is dust lofted from the Sahara Desert by strong winds and carried from east to west across the Atlantic.

    These dust plumes tend to suppress hurricanes by drying out the atmosphere and reducing sunlight that reaches the ocean surface. Dust outbreaks are next-to-impossible to predict months in advance, but satellite observations of growing plumes can give forecasters a heads-up a couple weeks before the dust reaches the primary hurricane development region off the coast of Africa.

    Dust blowing in from the Sahara Desert can tamp down hurricane activities by shading the ocean over the main development region for hurricanes and drying out the atmosphere, just off the African coast. This plume spread over 2,000 miles in June 2020.
    NASA

    Another key ingredient that doesn’t go into seasonal forecasts but becomes important during the season are African easterly waves. These “waves” are clusters of thunderstorms that roll off the West African coast, tracking from east to west across the ocean. Most major storms in the Atlantic basin, especially in the peak months of August and September, can trace their origins back to one of these waves.

    Forecasters monitor strong waves as they begin their westward journey across the Atlantic, knowing they can provide some insight about potential risks to U.S. interests one to two weeks in advance.

    Also in this subseasonal mix is the Madden–Julian Oscillation. The MJO is a wave-like pulse of atmospheric activity that moves slowly around the tropics every 30 to 60 days. When the MJO is active over the Atlantic, it enhances the formation of thunderstorms associated with hurricanes. In its suppressed phase, storm activity tends to die down. The MJO doesn’t guarantee storms – or a lack of them – but it turns up or down the odds. Its phase and position can be tracked two or three weeks in advance.

    Lastly, forecasters will talk about the Loop Current, a deep river of warm water that flows from the Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico.

    When storms pass over the Loop Current or its warm eddies, they can rapidly intensify because they are drawing energy from not just the warm surface water but from warm water that’s tens of meters deep. The Loop Current has helped power several historic Gulf storms, including Hurricanes Katrina in 2005 and Ida in 2021.

    The Loop Current stretched well into the Gulf in May 2022. The scale, in meters, shows the maximum depth at which temperatures were 78 F (26 C) or greater.
    Nick Shay/University of Miami, CC BY-ND

    But the Loop Current is always shifting. Its strength and location in early summer may look very different by late August or September.

    Combined, these subseasonal signals help forecasters fine-tune their outlooks as the season unfolds.

    Where hurricanes form shifts over the months

    Where storms are most likely to form and make landfall also changes as the pages of the calendar turn.

    In early summer, the Gulf of Mexico warms up faster than the open Atlantic, making it a notable hotspot for early-season tropical storm development, especially in June and July. The Texas coast, Louisiana, and the Florida Panhandle often face a higher early-season risk than locations along the Eastern seaboard.

    These are generally the busiest areas during each month of hurricane season, but that doesn’t mean hurricanes won’t make landfall elsewhere.
    NOAA

    By August and September, the season reaches its peak. This is when those waves moving off the coast of Africa become a primary source of storm activity. These long-track storms are sometimes called “Cape Verde hurricanes” because they originate near the Cape Verde Islands off the African coast. While many stay over open water, others can gather steam and track toward the Caribbean, Florida or the Carolinas.

    Later in the hurricane season, storms are more likely to form in the western Atlantic or Caribbean, where waters are still warm and upper-level winds remain favorable. These late-season systems have a higher probability of following atypical paths, as Sandy did in 2012 when it struck the New York City region and Milton did in 2024 before making landfall in Florida.

    At the end of the day, the safest way to think about hurricane season is this: If you live along the coast, don’t let your guard down. Areas susceptible to hurricanes are never totally immune from hurricanes, and it only takes one to make it a dangerous – and unforgettable – season.

    Colin Zarzycki’s research lab receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation, Department of Energy, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

    ref. NOAA’s 2025 hurricane forecast warns of a busy season – a storm scientist explains why and what meteorologists are watching – https://theconversation.com/noaas-2025-hurricane-forecast-warns-of-a-busy-season-a-storm-scientist-explains-why-and-what-meteorologists-are-watching-257223

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Ofcom wants to plug a legal loophole around politicians presenting news

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Cushion, Chair Professor, Cardiff School of Journalism, Media and Culture, Cardiff University

    Following a legal battle with GB News, the UK’s media regulator is proposing to tighten its rules on politicians appearing as presenters.

    Earlier this year, a judge concluded that Ofcom’s current impartiality guidelines are badly worded, and do not clearly explain to broadcasters when and where politicians can present news or current affairs programming.

    Ofcom is now recommending changing its code to clarify that politicians cannot act as newsreaders, news interviewers or news reporters in any type of programming.

    Ofcom defines news programming as a newsreader presenting information in bulletins, and reporters or correspondents delivering packages and live reports. Current affairs content is interpreted as long-form programming, involving extensive discussions, analysis or interviews with guests.

    The proposed rule change is under consultation until June 2025. Ofcom noted: “The distinction between news and current affairs content has become more blurred and the use of politicians presenting programmes has become more prevalent.”

    In February 2025, Ofcom lost a legal case to GB News about whether the channel breached “due impartiality” rules. The case involved Conservative former MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, who was acting as a presenter on GB News while an MP.

    Ofcom found GB News had breached impartiality rules without exceptional editorial justification. In separate programmes, Rees-Mogg had acted as a newsreader by reading out an Autocue summary of breaking news and engaging with a news correspondent.

    GB News challenged Ofcom’s ruling. A judge at the high court found that the politician had produced news-related content, but within a current affairs programme. The judge concluded that Ofcom’s impartiality code was ambiguous about how politicians could present across different broadcast programming. Ofcom is proposing to clarify this in the rule change.

    GB News, which has been the subject of several Ofcom investigations, has now accused the regulator of bias and demanded that it withdraw the proposals.

    Due impartiality and public opinion

    In recent years, new radio stations and television channels have begun pushing the boundaries of the UK’s rules on impartiality. High-profile politicians such as Nigel Farage have acted as presenters in programming that blurs the lines between news and current affairs.

    Ofcom has so far allowed this on the grounds of freedom of expression and audience engagement. But the regulator has faced increasing pressure from politicians, lobby groups and the public to curb the creeping partisanship on TV and radio.

    My new research project with colleagues at Cardiff University and broadcasters is exploring the impartiality of news across media platforms. We are also examining the implications of Ofcom’s rule change by asking whether the public wants politicians to act as broadcast presenters.

    Ofcom has justified its decision to allow politicians to act as broadcast presenters by referring to audience research it commissioned in June 2024 that found no consensus against it.

    However, the commissioned research by Ipsos UK was not an accurate representation of public opinion.

    It involved a qualitative focus group study of 157 people across 29 online focus groups. Fifteen of the focus groups were frequent viewers or listeners of news and current affairs programmes, three had people who did not frequently watch or listen to these type of programmes, and 11 were with audiences of channels where politicians have regularly presented current affairs content.

    In other words, the study drew on a highly constructed sample likely to support politicians presenting. Well over a third of the participants were represented by audiences who choose to regularly watch channels featuring politicians presenting.

    Despite the skewed sample, according to Ipsos UK the “most prevalent opinion” – among focus group participants – “was feeling uncomfortable with politicians presenting current affairs content”.

    This suggests that there was, in fact, a consensus of respondents concerned with politicians acting as presenters – and that consensus was opposed to politicians acting as presenters on TV and radio. This highlights the need for a representative study of public opinion on this issue.

    What does the public really want?

    Existing evidence suggests that public opinion is more against opinionated presenters than supporting partisanship in broadcasting. One poll in 2020 found more people opposed than favoured a Fox News-style channel to broadcast in the UK.

    Academic research, including my ongoing work with colleagues, has consistently found the public prefers impartial news over partisan journalism. The Reuters Institute for Journalism has long found in representative surveys that the public rate neutral news well ahead of partisan reporting.

    While Ofcom’s proposed latest amendment would tighten the rules on politicians acting as news presenters, it appears out of step with public opinion because many people feel uncomfortable with politicians presenting in any type of broadcast programme.

    While GB News has recorded an increase in online views over recent years, its reach on broadcast media is relatively small. But the bigger impact of GB News could be in normalising political partisanship on TV and radio, and gradually pushing the boundaries of the UK’s regulations on broadcast impartiality.

    At a time when political disinformation is rising and trust in journalism is declining, is it time for Ofcom to rethink giving politicians a bigger platform to promote their politics? In doing so, it should properly consult the public on how they want broadcasting to be impartially regulated.

    Stephen Cushion has received funding from the BBC Trust, Ofcom, AHRC, BA and ESRC.

    ref. Why Ofcom wants to plug a legal loophole around politicians presenting news – https://theconversation.com/why-ofcom-wants-to-plug-a-legal-loophole-around-politicians-presenting-news-256744

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why a ‘rip-off’ degree might be worth the money after all – research study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sean Brophy, Senior Lecturer , Manchester Metropolitan University

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Certain university degrees – especially in the arts and humanities – are often maligned as “rip-offs” or “Mickey Mouse degrees”. The argument is that while some degrees lead to high-paying jobs, others offer little financial return and may leave graduates worse off than if they hadn’t gone to university.

    Financial returns are important, and prospective students should understand the cost implications of different degrees. This is a particularly vital consideration when recent reports suggest that the graduate premium – the boost in earnings that comes from having a degree – may be faltering, with some degrees particularly implicated.

    But part of making an informed decision also means understanding how degrees shape graduates’ early experiences of work. That’s where our research comes in.

    The research study I carried out with colleagues explores this broader view of graduate success. We analysed responses from UK graduates who finished university in 2018-19, surveyed 15 months after graduation through the national Graduate Outcomes survey. This gave us a sample size of over 67,500 graduates.

    Rather than focusing on salary, we looked at how graduates responded to three simple but telling questions:

    1) Do you find your work meaningful?

    2) Does it align with your future plans?

    3) Are you using the skills you learned at university?

    Our results challenge the idea that only high-earning degrees offer value. While some vocational courses – such as medicine, veterinary science, and education – perform especially well on these measures, graduates across all subjects reported largely positive experiences. In fact, 86% said their work felt meaningful, 78% felt on track with their careers, and 66% said they were using their university-acquired skills.

    This matters because public debate has long been dominated by a single metric: income. While earnings are undoubtedly an important outcome of higher education, they’re not the only one.

    Many would trade a higher salary for work that offers purpose and uses their talents. These aren’t just “touchy-feely” concerns: they’re key drivers of employee retention, productivity, and competitiveness.

    Vocational and generalist degrees

    Graduates of medicine and dentistry were around 12 percentage points more likely than others to say their work was meaningful, and more than 30 points more likely to say they were using their university-acquired skills. Education, allied health, and veterinary science also performed well.

    But generalist degrees – including many of those that have been labelled “low value” – held their own. History, languages, and the creative arts all produced graduates who, on average, felt positively about their work. Once we adjusted for background factors like social class, gender, and prior attainment, many of the gaps between vocational and generalist fields narrowed.

    Graduates of generalist degrees, such as languages and history, also felt positive about their careers.
    Atthapon Niyom/Shutterstock

    Crucially, we found little support for the idea that certain degrees routinely leave students disillusioned. Even in subjects like history or media studies, often targeted in value-for-money debates, the data show a more positive picture than the headlines suggest.

    Of course, our study has limitations. It captures only the first 15 months after graduation, which are still early days for recent graduates. It also doesn’t track income or job stability over the longer term. But it provides something previously missing from the debate: nationally representative evidence on how UK graduates across different degree subjects experience their early careers.

    And the findings are striking. Many of the most heavily criticised degrees consistently deliver positive subjective outcomes for their graduates. This challenges the idea that the arts, humanities, and social sciences are bad investments, for individuals or for society.

    More than financial returns

    Our findings prompt broader questions about how value in higher education should be defined. Framing only high-earning degrees as “worth it” reduces university study to a financial transaction.

    It risks sending the message that choosing a subject based on personal interest, talent, or intellectual curiosity is a mistake, and may deter students from pursuing degrees that, while less lucrative, often lead to fulfilling and meaningful work.

    Yes, graduates should be employable. And yes, some degrees deliver clearer financial returns than others. But higher education is also about developing individual potential, nurturing intellectual curiosity, and enabling people to make meaningful contributions to society beyond just income. If we ignore these dimensions, we risk undervaluing not just certain degrees, but the wider purpose of education itself.

    By branding arts and humanities degrees as “rip-offs”, we risk further weakening the talent pipeline for one of the UK’s genuinely world-leading sectors — arts and culture. This sector is already facing skills shortages following years of cuts to creative education.

    So, before we write off a subject as a rip-off, we should ask: what are we really measuring? Because for many university graduates, we now have credible evidence that success is about more than just a pay packet.

    Sean Brophy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Why a ‘rip-off’ degree might be worth the money after all – research study – https://theconversation.com/why-a-rip-off-degree-might-be-worth-the-money-after-all-research-study-255537

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Working women are too often left to deal with endometriosis alone. But big changes could be coming

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Victoria Williams, Research Fellow, University of Surrey

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Endometriosis is a long-term and invisible gynaecological condition that affects around 1.5 million women in the UK alone. It’s known for its unpredictable and debilitating symptoms, like chronic pelvic pain, heavy periods and fatigue. But many women face outdated practices in the workplace that just don’t accommodate the reality of the condition.

    Women with endometriosis can be unfairly thought of as unreliable or weak for not being able to adhere to conventional ideas of productivity or working hours. Times could be changing, though, with the UK’s employment rights bill, which is making its way through parliament.

    The bill could mark a significant turning point by framing menstruation and related health conditions as legitimate workplace issues. What this could mean, in practice, is a move towards employers taking measures such as offering flexible hours as the norm rather than the burden falling on individual women to make the case for what they need.

    But as a researcher on women’s health and wellbeing at work, I believe the bill must go further. If this legislation is to represent a new era for women, it should explicitly include provisions to support all reproductive health as part of its gender equality plans. After all, it has been estimated that menstrual health issues, including endometriosis, cost the UK economy £11 billion per year due to worker absences.


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    Workers deserve a framework that supports the entire lifecycle of women’s health at work – from menstruation to miscarriage to menopause and beyond. Incorporating menstruation action plans alongside the bill’s proposed menopause action plans could include measures to destigmatise menstrual health. This could help workers feel safe sharing their symptoms or condition.

    It could also involve training for managers so conversations focus on support as opposed to the burden of medical proof. And clearly, sick leave policies should not penalise women for symptoms that can frequently be irregular.

    Historically, endometriosis was labelled the “career woman’s disease”. The suggestion was that it was a consequence of women delaying motherhood for paid work, and the stressful professional lives of women.

    These outdated theories framed endometriosis as the result of ambition. But the echoes persist, reinforcing the idea that women must silently manage their condition at work. This framing, rather than recognising that endometriosis can in some cases be considered a disability, diverts attention from failures in workplace policies and healthcare systems.

    Women with endometriosis can lose between 1.9 and 15.8 work hours per week managing painful and fluctuating symptoms within rigid work schedules and unaccommodating workplaces.

    However, having the permission to adjust where and how you work can help with managing symptoms and can also help to prevent them. For example, having the flexibility to start work later in the day for pain that presents in the morning, or to work from home on bad pain days, can make it easier to manage symptoms, and actually increases productivity. On the other hand, rigid working days can cause stress that exacerbates symptoms.

    Issues like stigma, disbelief of the level of pain and other symptoms, and the inability to deal with symptoms when they come on (by taking frequent breaks or using a hot water bottle, for example), as well as unfriendly absence policies, make work more difficult than it needs to be.

    This time lost can also place women in a precarious position, forcing them to choose between concealing their pain or risking career setbacks by disclosing their condition. Workplaces are typically designed for those who can maintain uninterrupted schedules, leaving workers with symptoms that come and go at a disadvantage.

    My research on “endo time”, which will be published later this year, reflects this. It highlights how women with endometriosis must constantly adjust their routines to manage symptoms. This is a reality at odds with rigid workplace expectations. It can mean having to think about every day in advance like “strategising a war”.

    Emotional and economic costs

    The cost of managing endometriosis extends beyond physical pain. Women with endometriosis in the UK can experience reduced earnings alongside lost promotions, bonuses and clients. A major constraint can be the need to take frequent sick days. This is often treated as a performance issue rather than a medical issue.

    As such, women can be left ducking and diving, and trying to work out little systems and workarounds for fear of losing their jobs. Women with endometriosis may also be pushed into part-time or insecure work, or feel compelled to become self-employed, trading stability for flexibility.

    Ultimately, left unsupported, endometriosis can make it extremely difficult for women to work within standard schedules and timetables. Yet, despite its prevalence, endometriosis research remains underfunded, contributing to continued misunderstandings and inadequate support.

    Unsupported menstrual health issues are thought to cost the UK economy £11 billion per year in lost work days.
    tuaindeed/Shutterstock

    The employment rights bill could be a significant step forward. It will require organisations with more than 250 employees to develop gender equality plans, including menopause support. The bill also aims to promote transparency around gender pay gaps and strengthen flexible working rights. These provisions would undoubtedly support the economic and emotional costs of working with endometriosis.

    Endometriosis is more than a health challenge. It is a lens through which we can understand broader issues around gender, health and work. By pushing for more comprehensive policies, the UK can shift the narrative from one of individual struggle to one of collective responsibility. This could create a workplace culture where women can thrive without being penalised for their health.

    The bill presents an opportunity to do just that – but only if it goes far enough to address the full spectrum of reproductive health challenges that women face throughout their careers.

    Victoria Williams is affiliated with The Menstruation Friendly Accreditation.

    ref. Working women are too often left to deal with endometriosis alone. But big changes could be coming – https://theconversation.com/working-women-are-too-often-left-to-deal-with-endometriosis-alone-but-big-changes-could-be-coming-256537

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: After 50 successful years, the European Space Agency has some big challenges ahead

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniel Brown, Lecturer in Astronomy, Nottingham Trent University

    Rosetta at Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. ESA/ATG medialab; Comet image: ESA/Rosetta/Navcam

    This year marks the 50th anniversary of the founding of the European Space Agency (Esa). It has launched spectacularly successful missions, but is different to other space agencies which generally represent one country. Esa is funded by 23 member states and also has cooperation agreements with nations such as Canada.

    Esa operates cutting edge spacecraft designed to monitor the Earth, as well as space telescopes that study the distant cosmos. It has launched robotic spacecraft to other planets and to objects such as comets. It is also involved in human spaceflight – training European astronauts to work on the International Space Station (ISS).

    These are hugely successful achievements. But the agency now faces challenges as competition heats up among newer space powers such as China and India.

    The history of Esa can be traced to events immediately after the second world war, when many European scientists moved to either the US or to the Soviet Union. Many of them realised that projects supported only by a single nation could not compete with those supported by the two big geopolitical players at the time.

    This motivated the physicists Pierre Auger, from France, and Edoardo Amaldi, from Italy, to propose a European organisation that would carry out space research and would be “purely scientific”.

    In 1962, two agencies were created. One of these, the European Launch Development Organisation (ELDO), would concentrate on developing a rocket. The other, the European Space Research Organisation (ESRO), would focus on developing robotic spacecraft. Both were joined together in 1975 to form the European Space Agency.

    The push to build a European rocket would eventually yield the Ariane launcher, which is operated by the French company Arianespace.

    The first satellite to be launched under the banner of the newly formed European Space Agency was Cos-B. This spacecraft was designed to monitor a high energy form of radiation called gamma rays, being emitted from objects in space.

    Esa collaborated with other space agencies on the Hubble Space Telescope.
    ESA/NASA

    In 1978, Esa cooperated with Nasa and the UK on the International Ultraviolet Explorer mission. This space telescope was designed to observe the cosmos in ultraviolet light, something that cannot be done from Earth.

    The agency would later collaborate with Nasa and the Canadian Space Agency on one of the most successful space telescopes of all time: Hubble. Launched in 1990, the Hubble Space Telescope helped confirm the expansion rate of the universe and showed that black holes are at the cores of almost all galaxies. Hubble’s stunning images also changed the way that many people saw the universe. Esa funded one of the original instruments on the space telescope, the Faint Object Camera, and provided the first two solar arrays.

    The space agency is also a partner on the revolutionary James Webb Telescope, which launched in 2021. Esa contributed two of the telescope’s instruments: the Near-Infrared Spectrograph (NirSpec) and the Mid-Infrared Instrument (Miri).

    Solar System missions

    Esa has also launched pioneering missions to other planets and objects in our solar system. The first of these was the Giotto comet explorer. This robotic spacecraft flew past Halley’s comet in 1986 and was successfully woken up in 1992 to study a comet called Grigg-Skejllerup.

    A second successful cometary mission followed when the Rosetta spacecraft entered orbit around Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in 2014. Rosetta despatched a lander called Philae to touch down on the comet’s surface.

    Rosetta has been my favourite of all Esa achievements, simply due to the pure audacity of attempting to land on an object whose shape and composition was until then only sparsely known. In order to “land” on an object with low gravity, Philae was to have deployed harpoons that would attach the lander to the surface. These systems did not work, but the overall mission was a success, leading to high levels of engagement from the public.

    Besides comets, Esa launched one of the most successful missions to the red planet: Mars Express. The spacecraft entered orbit around Mars in 2003 and has played a key role in enhancing understanding of our planetary neighbour. It is expected to continue working until at least 2034. Mars Express also carried the ill-fated British Beagle 2 spacecraft to Mars. This was supposed to land in 2003, but contact was never established with the probe, which is presumed to have been damaged while touching down.

    In 2005, Esa’s Huygens spacecraft landed on Titan, Saturn’s largest moon. This was the furthest from Earth that a spacecraft has ever landed. These are all outward facing missions, but Esa has also had major success with projects to study what’s going on here on Earth. These include the Envisat satellite, which operated from 2002-2012, and the Sentinel series of spacecraft, which have operated from 2014 to the present.

    These have helped map agriculture and forests, understand the Earth’s climate, track ice, and monitor atmospheric ozone. In addition, the Galileo navigation satellites are providing a high precision alternative to GPS.

    Esa is also a major player in human spaceflight, having been a partner in the International Space Station project since 1993. It has built sections of the ISS, including the Columbus laboratory, launched in 2008, and the Cupola viewing window, which gives astronauts panoramic views of Earth. The agency’s astronauts regularly spend time on the ISS as crew and could even fly to the Moon under Nasa’s Artemis programme.

    Since the 1990s, Esa has frequently collaborated with Nasa – often very successfully. However, this relationship has also faced challenges. In the wake of the financial crisis, for example, Nasa cancelled its participation in several collaborative missions with Esa. Under a proposed Nasa budget this year, the US space agency may again cancel its involvement with the joint Nasa-Esa Mars Sample Return mission.

    Esa’s future

    Times have changed in the space industry since Esa’s founding 50 years ago. Major countries such as China, India and Japan all have their own space programmes. Esa faces considerable financial pressures to compete with them.

    Nevertheless, Esa is working on strengthening its space exploration and launch capabilities through the use of a commercial space port in Norway.

    It has also put together a long-term strategy for 2040. This document highlights important areas where Esa can play a major role, including protecting Earth and its climate, continued missions to explore space and also efforts to boost European growth and competitiveness.

    All this should strengthen and secure the agency for the future. Through a mixture of developing its own missions and collaborating with other agencies and commercial partners on others, Esa should be a major player in space exploration for decades to come.

    Daniel Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. After 50 successful years, the European Space Agency has some big challenges ahead – https://theconversation.com/after-50-successful-years-the-european-space-agency-has-some-big-challenges-ahead-256633

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘We are all lumped under one umbrella of hate’: when social attitudes change, what is life like for people who don’t agree?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Carol Ballantine, Postdoctoral Researcher and Lecturer in Gender and Equality Studies, University College Dublin

    charactervectorart/Shutterstock

    Pseudonyms are used in this article; interviewees who asked for their real names to be used are asterisked.

    In 2016, one of us (Kath) attended New Normal, a conference in London which opposed LGBT+ rights, including lesbian parenting and gender recognition. As a lesbian parent, I was upset by what was said – and by the way people stood to applaud speakers who warned of the dangers of parents like me, while mentioning the need to “protect children”.

    Yet that conference also opened my eyes to my – and perhaps, many other people’s – lack of understanding of what it can mean to stand against the apparent state-supported, liberal consensus on such issues. On day two, the organisers appealed for help for the parents of a trans or gender-diverse child. My notes from that day read:

    The parents feel they are not listened to, and are ‘encouraged by social services’ to treat ‘her’ like a boy. But social services have only known ‘her’ for six months – so they don’t know ‘her’. The parents are told if they don’t agree to a name change, it is neglectful and that she is suicidal. The mother argues: ‘We love our daughter.’

    Unexpectedly and conflictually, I found myself relating to the parents’ story in some way. And I wondered how I would feel as a same-sex parent if I was ever in a situation where my child rejected their family as a “moral abomination”.

    These thoughts proved a starting point for Beyond Opposition – our project which, since 2020, has been looking at the lives of people who are reticent about or object to the perceived liberalising of societies’ sexual and gender laws in Great Britain, Ireland and Canada.

    The idea of this research is not to defend their positions. Nor is it to explore their politics around sexualities and genders, which we and many others do in research into anti-gender movements. Rather, we wanted to understand the experiences that might drive these politics.


    The Insights section is committed to high-quality longform journalism. Our editors work with academics from many different backgrounds who are tackling a wide range of societal and scientific challenges.


    As far back as 2012, prompted by my colleague, urban geographer Catherine Nash, I (Kath) began noticing an evolution in arguments against changes like same-sex marriage, gender recognition and relationship and sexuality education in schools – an evolution that was not always fully recognised, or even noticed, by supporters of these changes. People who objected to such societal shifts were sometimes being politicised through court cases around their work and their children’s experiences at school.

    For Beyond Opposition, we put a call out to people who opposed or had concerns about changing laws and policies related to gender, sexuality or abortion. As well as contacting organisations and activists who actively campaigned against these changes, we used social media to reach out to people who had no connections with these groups.

    In more than 160 interviews between 2020 and 2022, we explored the daily experiences of living outside the social consensus in three countries where, at the time, there was broad legal, political and social agreement in favour of same-sex marriage, abortion, gender self-identification and related policies. The surprising diversity of positions and experiences we heard not only shed new light on how societies were changing; they painted a sometimes disturbing picture of how these shifts were being challenged and resisted.

    Not all far-right

    In the 1990s in secondary school, I would have been completely open about my view on [abortion], because it was a more accepted view, I suppose … [Now] I have this view and don’t feel I can even express it [because] everyone else disagrees … I feel like I can’t even say this to anyone.

    We first met Niamh in 2021, three years after Ireland’s historic referendum to repeal one of the EU’s strictest legal barriers to abortion, which led to limited access to abortion care. Where once her anti-abortion views were considered mainstream, in Ireland and many other countries where abortion is accepted legally and socially, now her views are in the minority.

    Niamh was clear she did not regard herself as “conservative” and said she was strongly in favour of human rights. She told us: “If I have to categorise myself, I’d categorise myself as ‘pro-life’.” But she expressed frustration at how people assumed this position automatically predicted what she thought about other topics relating to gender and sexuality, explaining:

    There’s this thing that’s like: [because] you’re against abortion, you’re against same-sex marriage or against refugees coming into the country … I struggle with it because the people in my circle on social justice issues are not usually aligned with my [anti-abortion] position. They tend to have the opposite view – [mine] tends to be seen as a really conservative stance, not a rights-based stance.


    Fagreia/Shutterstock

    Niamh, like many of our interviewees, expressed views quite differently from the organisations opposing sexual and gender equalities that I (Kath) had encountered in earlier research. While those organisations were diverse, they were often aligned on abortion, same-sex marriage and gender recognition. This contrasted with the differences that people such as British woman Jane identified when we met her.

    “I wouldn’t want to sit down in a room with somebody who said gay people were going to hell,” Jane told us. “We just wouldn’t have anything to talk about.” But she also felt it would be “impossible to have a conversation with somebody who does not believe in the existence of biological sex”.

    While Jane objected to trans rights being “given primacy”, she thought of herself as different to people who are seen as anti-gender activists. Describing herself as “gender critical”, she said: “Why this is so toxic and has started to spill out into my day-to-day life is that we are all just lumped under one umbrella of hate.”

    Like many of our interviewees, Jane objected to being placed in a single category that, in her experience, carries overwhelmingly negative associations. She told us her daily life was being affected because people attributed opinions to her that she considers hateful.

    On the whole, public attitudes across the EU and Canada still favour a broadening of gender and sexual inclusion. But academic research on changing social norms relating to gender and sexuality is largely silent on how these changes can affect those who “do not agree”.

    Many of our interviewees emphasised their distance from other people who held similar views. Indeed, this sentiment of not fitting a stereotype was so common that we still have no single phrase to describe the group of people we spoke to. Common terms like “anti-gender” or “far-right” were rejected by most participants.

    Yet we found the experiences they described had a lot in common. James, in Ireland, said he “came down towards the ‘no’ side” in the 2018 Irish abortion referendum, yet the social associations of this troubled him:

    I definitely wouldn’t ever go on a pro-life parade or protest, or anything like that. I see those people [as] ultra-religious conservatives who are not free-thinking, who want to just force their opinions on other people. There’s no way I could ever want to be associated with people like that.

    While most interviewees resisted the stereotypes they say get assigned to their position, pushing back against being seen as anti-rights or anti-equalities, some did express positions more in line with a stereotypical anti-gender activist. Brian in Canada, for example, told us he was “in a pro-life Catholic Christian bubble”, and that he would not welcome gay or trans people into his home for dinner.

    ‘I don’t feel comfortable in my own house’

    Anne, a Canadian woman who described herself as a feminist with gender-critical opinions, said she had withdrawn from her volunteer work supporting survivors of sexual violence because she recognised that “my gender-critical opinions are really toxic to others”.

    But the relationship that most troubled her was with her daughter. Anne described how her home life had been significantly affected by her interest in “gender-critical” content:

    In my house, which should be the place where I feel the most comfortable, at no time do I discuss these things. If I’m watching a video with these concerns, or am online in some way with these concerns, when my daughter who lives with me comes into the room, I turn it off. So I don’t feel at all comfortable in my own house.

    Anne was distressed by the impact her gender-critical position had on her relationship with her daughter. She recognised that content she sometimes viewed was considered “toxic” by many people, including her daughter, and expressed sadness about the damage this had done to their relationship:

    It’s very saddening to me because my daughter and I are so close, but this has become a barrier. It has become a block. The only time we talked about it at length, we were both in tears.

    We heard a number of stories like Anne’s, of close relationships becoming deeply fractured by differences on such topics. These interviewees felt their positions were fundamentally opposed by family members. Some, conscious of the tensions, kept their views to themselves even in their own home. As a result of her differences with her daughter, Anne said: “I don’t speak to her about anything in order to keep peace in the house.”


    Vectorium/Shutterstock

    Ciara, a leftwing Irishwoman who voted against abortion in the 2018 referendum, described the careful way she navigated her friendships, recognising that her friend group would hold very different views to her on abortion:

    You kind of judge the friendship a little bit. Can this friendship take this news that I voted ‘no’? [Laughs] I’ve lied – I’ve told others I voted ‘yes’.

    Ciara noted that in her everyday life, it was generally assumed everybody was pro-choice – as she had once been. She was not religious and, like many of our interviewees, distanced herself from rightwing politics.

    But in her family and among her friends, being against abortion was automatically understood as being rightwing, so she kept quiet about it. This made her question herself, resulting in what she described as “a whole range of inner dilemmas”:

    You strategise – you suss out, like, how is this going to go down? How is this going to impact on this friendship? And on trust – how will I be seen?

    Keeping quiet among friends and family makes concerned, oppositional positions harder to see and understand. So, it is possible for researchers and others to deny these positions exist – and to not address their impact. Many people spoke to us on condition that their identities would be concealed – something that came across especially strongly when they spoke about their fears at work.

    ‘At work, I can’t risk my livelihood’

    Work is central to many people’s lives. Tammy* from Canada, who described herself as “not a pro-gay person, just a pro-people person”, told us she felt uncomfortable with some workplace inclusion policies, such as Pride month:

    At work, we have an app on our phone and … for gay pride, in June, the whole month is just devoted to that history, right? And it annoys me because it’s like: OK, I get it … [but] I don’t like people trying to program me.

    The promotion of LGBTQ+ rights through corporate platforms made Tammy feel suspicious. Other Beyond Opposition participants went further, fearing their jobs could be at risk.

    For Cindy, who is also from Canada and described herself as “dabbling in gender-critical feminism”, her position was out-of-line with her workplace. Her employer took positive actions to promote LGBTQ+ inclusion. She felt that to object to such actions might “risk my livelihood, so I can’t even broach the subject”.

    It was not only the owners and managers who Cindy feared would view her “as a bigot”. She also worried that colleagues might cause conflict for her if she expressed her position outside the workplace consensus.

    Like others in our research, Cindy deliberately stayed out of activism. But during her mandatory workplace training, she said: “The whole time I’m biting my tongue.” Her concern was that she might be obliged to take an action that she didn’t believe in:

    If anyone were ever to say: ‘Go around the room and say your preferred pronouns,’ I’m not sure how I would answer that because I don’t believe in the ideology of preferred pronouns. I worry that if I just said something like: ‘No thank you, I don’t believe in it,’ that might actually cause me to lose my job.

    Workplace inclusion policies, training and practices have been shown to be effective in improving workplaces in terms of their productivity and wellbeing for employees – although in some cases, they can be poorly implemented and insufficient. But some of the people we spoke to, including Tammy and Cindy, described them as “feared” and “hated”.

    Mark went even further, suggesting he was being asked to deny his “moral values” – and that his work would not be secure if he didn’t. A freelance worker in rural Ireland, Mark believed he needed to “keep his head down” with regard to his views on sexuality and abortion:

    I’m self-employed … I can say it here to you but I’m certainly not shouting about this in the pub. I depend on the milk of human kindness from people.

    Some of our interviewees have used the law to challenge employers where their jobs were lost or under threat. Most had not experienced any official sanctions – yet many feared them. Cindy said that as a result, she kept her views to herself at work: “I guess I choose harmony and peace over being right.”

    It is these “quiet concerns” at work and among family and friends – of people who are not vocal in opposition to changing laws and policies, but still act against them – that we believe are not well documented or understood. And our research shows that in their experience of being negatively labelled and having their experiences dismissed or minimised, some have been driven to look beyond their usual communities to find support for their views.


    Accogliente Design/Shutterstock

    Accidental activists

    Although most people in our study are not activists and did not seek to be public about their views, many quietly supported those who were, or engaged with them to find support for their views.

    Those who felt uncomfortable talking to people in their own circles often told us about how they had found support elsewhere. Suzy, a British woman who said she was gender critical, described the first meeting she had attended that opposed trans rights:

    I just happened to make the decision to go [to a conference run by an organisation opposing gender self-identification] on my own … I had nobody in my life at that point who was a feminist who had these views. It’s why I went by myself. And I met some really amazing women who just completely welcomed me into this world. That opened a lot of doors for me.

    Suzy’s experience was echoed by others who had concerns about trans rights or gender recognition. Such groups were not always public, and some organised in secret – something Suzy believed was unjust but necessary, because of the distance from the social consensus of people who held views like hers:

    There is a private online messaging app – you have to be invited. I had to be vetted … to make sure I was a real person – [that] I wasn’t trying to infiltrate. It’s so ridiculous that we are having to jump through these hoops just to talk about it and express our opinion about something that for a really long time was okay to think. Now all of a sudden, it’s not okay to think this way. So you’re a societal pariah.

    At the time of our interview in 2020, Suzy was actively involved in organising to oppose the proposed amendments to the UK’s Gender Recognition Act. She had moved from having “nobody in my life … who was a feminist who had those views”, to participating in an organised campaign to influence this legislation:

    I wouldn’t necessarily describe myself as an activist – I think that word is quite a bit loaded in negative connotations now … I prefer the term ‘campaigner’ because what I started to get involved in was campaigning for the law not to be changed. I wasn’t going out on marches or anything like that.

    Proposals to update the Act in line with international human rights standards stalled and then were halted in the UK from 2018 onwards, with the support of civil society campaigners including Suzy. Since then, other campaigns have had greater successes – including, most recently, a Supreme Court ruling defining “sex” as “biological sex” in the 2010 Equality Act.

    ‘I’m not saying that I am right’

    For the many people who have spent years campaigning for gender equality and to improve LGBTQ+ lives, it is possible to understand the day-to-day accounts of our interviewees as evidence of success. Many told us they could not now express opinions on others’ relationships, sexual activity or their decisions about pregnancy and parenthood in some workplaces – and sometimes even at home.

    For some interviewees, this shift was expressed as fear, where their positions were seen to negatively affect them at work even if they didn’t express them openly. They didn’t feel able to raise questions about gender and sexual equality or abortion at work or in their volunteering and organising spaces.

    It is possible to understand this shift as a welcome victory for equalities. But our research highlights that, for many people who maintain reticence to these societal changes, the ability to reconsider or change their position has been reduced by their day-to-day work, social and family experiences.

    Cindy, for example, expressed a moment of doubt about her concerns about trans rights, admitting: “I’m not saying that I am right. Like, there is the possibility I’m not …” However, this reflective stance was not encouraged by experiences of work that she described as forcing her to “bite my tongue”.

    She and others told us the implementation of inclusion policies and training in their workplaces felt paradoxical – because they’d had the effect of making their own behaviour less inclusive. Cindy admitted she was less inclined to question herself because of the way she felt her views were treated.

    Mark, the freelance worker in Ireland, considered himself “very leftwing” and said he would “always defend the underdog”. But he told us people like him were “very much put off” by what he saw as the “tactics of what now are leftwing liberal policies”. His experiences of feeling outside the consensus, and fearing a loss of employment opportunities, meant he – and others we interviewed – were less open to engaging sympathetically with the experiences of sexual- and gender-minoritised people.

    Fear, upset and discomfort from social change

    While stories like Niamh’s and Cindy’s are sometimes used to argue that transformations have “gone too far”, research does not support this argument. In fact, those “left out in the cold” are typically the LGBTQ+ people whose needs are not being met by policies like same-sex marriage (or who remain excluded from these policies), and those seeking sexual and reproductive healthcare in all its forms.

    Our interviewees do not negate this. They highlight the fear, upset and discomfort that results from social change for some people who hold firm to their positions opposing or questioning provisions such as abortion, same-sex marriage, gender recognition. In research, these everyday experiences are rarely considered beyond their political views (assumed to be rightwing) and how to explain or change them.

    Our interviewees believe their positions are frequently mis-characterised and conflated in the media and by policymakers in order to dismiss them – and therefore, that their experiences go unseen and unrecognised. And in their experience of being outsiders – feeling labelled and minimised – they may, like Suzy, find their way to actively opposing legislation and social change that benefits LGBTQ+ people and/or those who need abortion rights. Some offered quiet support to political causes, including donating their time or money.

    The world today is very different even to 2022, when we finished the Beyond Opposition interviews. The UK has seen some fundamental shifts especially regarding gender recognition, including the recent Supreme Court ruling that defined “sex” as “biological sex” in the 2010 Equality Act.

    In the US, providing affirmative care to trans children was deemed “mutilation” in recent executive orders from the president, Donald Trump, which stated that offering support to trans and gender-diverse children against their families’ will would be considered as “child abuse”.

    As the struggle for rights continues, we believe it’s essential for research, policy and practice to pay attention to the full range of impacts of the divisions that drive much of today’s politics. Experiences like those of the parents at the conference mentioned at the start of this article, who felt that affirming their child’s gender identity went against their beliefs, contribute to the shape of the world we all live in.

    It is possible to have a clear and firm view on the rights of trans and gender-diverse children, while also considering the implications for society of the experiences (as distinct from the opinions and arguments) of those who disagree. It feels important to do this now in places where some of us – lesbian parents, parents of trans kids and others – are still (somewhat) protected by the system, as we find ourselves, in the US and elsewhere, once again labelled “a danger to children”.

    For the second phase of Beyond Opposition, we brought people together from very different positions to see if they could imagine a world where they could live together, without seeking to change each other’s minds. We wanted to know if there were new ways of thinking about the problem of division, which recognised that some differences may be here to stay.

    Our intention was not to debate, negotiate or resolve their differences, but to explore the idea that it may be necessary to live together without ever agreeing on aspects related to gender, sexuality or abortion. One key outcome of these workshops was a number of moments in which participants met a complete impasse – where they had to acknowledge that their utopia could not accommodate the other person’s position at all.

    This is a starting point for important questions about not being able to change someone else’s mind, yet still needing to share places with them. We hope to write more on this subject soon.


    For you: more from our Insights series:

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    Dr. Carol Ballantine researches genders, sexualities and violence. She worked as the Ireland and UK postdoctoral researcher on Beyond Opposition, funded by the ERC.

    This article is funded by work undertaken under the ERC Grant No: 81789 granted to Kath Browne and also receives EU Horizon Europe funding. She has worked for LGBTQIA+ organisations is affiliated with LinQ.

    ref. ‘We are all lumped under one umbrella of hate’: when social attitudes change, what is life like for people who don’t agree? – https://theconversation.com/we-are-all-lumped-under-one-umbrella-of-hate-when-social-attitudes-change-what-is-life-like-for-people-who-dont-agree-253464

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Heart Lamp by the Indian writer Banu Mushtaq wins 2025 International Booker prize – a powerful collection of stories inspired by the real suffering of women

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Helen Vassallo, Associate Professor of French and Translation, University of Exeter

    Banu Mushtaq’s quietly powerful collection of short stories, translated by Deepa Bhasthi, shines a light on the lives of Muslim women in rural India. It is the first time that the International Booker prize has been won by a book translated from Kannada, a language of south India spoken by between 50 and 80 million people.

    Mushtaq is a writer who has previously worked as a journalist and lawyer, fighting for women’s rights and speaking out against caste and religious oppression. This comes through in the vignettes collected in Heart Lamp. At the centre of this work is great compassion for the women Mushtaq brings to life in her writing.

    Inspired by encounters with women who came to her for help, each of Mushtaq’s stories introduces us to a different woman from a different family. What the women of Heart Lamp share is that their lives are all dictated by men.

    We meet a young girl forced into wedlock, and a woman whose son arranges a new marriage for her. Elsewhere, an older woman is obliged to accept the indignity of her husband taking a second wife.

    Heart Lamp opens up an intimate world of domestic rituals and family tensions, rife with judgement, suspicion, righteousness and sacrifice. In the quiet of daily life, Mushtaq reveals the enormity of human emotion and experience. She also reveals the resilience of the women who resist the violence – physical, emotional, social and psychological – inflicted on them.

    Women are insulted for not expressing desire when they are forced into the conjugal bed, reproached for bearing girls, and warned repeatedly that any non-compliance is a stain on family honour. They are beaten, and casually replaced with second wives.

    In one horrific instance from the title story, a woman is told in no uncertain terms that “if you had the sense to uphold our family honour, you would have set yourself on fire and died” – a chilling sanction that hangs over the story until its tense dénouement.


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    Deepa Bhasthi’s bold and memorable translation invites us not to impose our own language and linguistic system on the original work.

    There are several words that are offered as a transliteration of their original Kannada form, without heavy-handed glosses or an attempt to transpose them into something more immediately recognisable to Anglophone readers. In her translator’s note, Bhasthi describes this as “against italics”, where using italics would signal to the reader that a word has been brought across from the Kannada.

    Bhasthi favours a way of translating that aims to respect the culture and language of the original text. This trusts readers to come to that language and culture rather than rendering the text in a blandly comfortable English that might make the setting more familiar but would strip it of its specificity.

    Instead, Bhasthi’s work welcomes Kannada’s evocative phrases, introducing into English lines such as “No matter how many times I tell you, you don’t let it fall inside your ears.” “Is the fruit a burden on the creeper?” And “the snake of arrogance had laid many, many eggs.”

    Bhasthi selected the 12 stories of Heart Lamp from a range of pieces written by Mushtaq over many years, and with her translation of the title story, was a winner of the first issue of PEN Presents, a digital initiative led by English PEN (which stands for poets, playwrights, editors, essayists and novelists).

    This organisation funds and promotes samples of original and diverse literature not yet available in English translation, fostering bibliodiversity by brokering connections between under-represented cultural contexts and UK publishers and readers.

    Following its promotion through PEN Presents, Heart Lamp was acquired by And Other Stories, a Sheffield-based independent publisher that has been at the vanguard of publishing innovative literature in translation over the past 15 years. The award represents multiple important firsts.

    As well as being the first book translated from Kannada to win the International Booker prize, it is the first time the prize has been won by an Indian translator. It is the first time a short story collection has won the award.




    Read more:
    International Booker prize 2025: six experts review the shortlisted novels


    It is also the first time And Other Stories has won the award and the first International Booker prize to be awarded to a PEN Presents winner. That it has received this highest of accolades in the translated literature sector of the publishing industry shows the importance of publishing that takes risks, of representing a broader range of languages and cultures in translation and of initiatives to support translators.

    This striking collection is perhaps best summed up in the final story, “Be a Woman Once, O Lord!”, in which the narrator teasingly implores her creator:

    “If you were to build the world again, to create males and females again, do not be like an inexperienced potter. Come to earth as a woman, Prabhu!”

    With unfailing compassion and humour, Mushtaq and Bhasthi lead us through a society that prioritises masculinity, male dominance, and father-son lineage. In so doing, they invite us – and whichever male deity might be listening – to walk in the shoes of women overlooked by an unquestioned patriarchal and religious hierarchy, and to re-evaluate what we think we know about social dynamics.

    Helen Vassallo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Heart Lamp by the Indian writer Banu Mushtaq wins 2025 International Booker prize – a powerful collection of stories inspired by the real suffering of women – https://theconversation.com/heart-lamp-by-the-indian-writer-banu-mushtaq-wins-2025-international-booker-prize-a-powerful-collection-of-stories-inspired-by-the-real-suffering-of-women-257287

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mary Dorcey: queer Irish poet illuminates a form of sexuality even the law has overlooked

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jack Reid, PhD Candidate in Irish literature, University of Limerick

    Ezhova Mariia/Shutterstock

    It’s the tenth anniversary of the marriage referendum in Ireland on May 22. The first country to legalise same-sex marriage by popular vote, Ireland has transformed itself from a conservative stronghold to a liberal state. This transformation could not have occurred without the important contributions of activists like Mary Dorcey, one of Ireland’s most significant LGBTQ+ writers.

    Dorcey began her political activism in the 1970s, having returned to Ireland after living in France and England. Having met other queer people abroad, Dorcey was struck by the repression that characterised Irish life: “The word ‘homosexual’ was not spoken or written in Ireland before the 1970s. The word ‘gay’ didn’t exist.”

    Determined to break through the silence, Dorcey became a founding member of various activist groups, including the Sexual Liberation Movement at Trinity College Dublin.

    One of Dorcey’s most prominent displays of early activism occurred at the Women’s Week conference at University College Dublin, where she substituted for an absentee speaker. Frustrated by the erasure of homosexuality from Irish life, Dorcey took the stage, quoting the American feminist slogan “if feminism is the theory, lesbianism is the practice”.

    Mary Dorcey discusses the controversy around her statement at Women’s Week.

    A headline appeared on the front page of the Irish Times the following day. It read: “Self-confessed lesbian denounces heterosexuality as sadomasochism.” While the headline caused ruptures at home, Dorcey remained an advocate of queer rights. “I wasn’t going to make any apologies,” she told the Museum of Literature Ireland. “It was their problem if they couldn’t see how beautiful we were.”

    Dorcey’s unwavering commitment to breaking the silence surrounding queerness is clearly displayed in her first poetry collection, Kindling (1982). Poems like Night, for example, are explicit in their bold use of homosexual imagery:

    I ask you then what am I to do with all these memories

    heavy and full?

    Hold them, quiet, between my two hands,

    as I would if I could again

    your hard breasts?

    The collection made waves, with even members of the queer community commenting on its outspokenness. Dorcey has discussed how her unflinching portrayal of homosexuality worried many community members – did her candidness threaten to expose them?

    Despite this, her activist tendencies prevailed, recognising the power of literature to shock readers into sociopolitical awareness, as expressed in poems like Deliberately Personal.

    Deliberately Personal, read by Mary Dorcey.

    One of Dorcey’s most important literary contributions is her short story collection A Noise from the Woodshed (1989). The collection debuted a year after her former Sexual Liberation Movement comrade David Norris’s landmark victory at the European Court of Human Rights, which required Ireland to decriminalise homosexual activity between men.

    Lesbianism was never explicitly illegal in Ireland under its adoption of British legal codes, which feared that writing it into law would introduce otherwise “respectable” women to its existence.

    Dorcey’s overtly lesbian stories are therefore groundbreaking. They depict autonomous women unafraid to voice their lesbian desires. Much of her work responds to the main concerns of the “decriminalisation era”, resulting in a charged critique of traditional Irish life.

    For example, the title story of A Noise from the Woodshed follows a group of lesbians refusing domestic duties to bask in the sensuality of a rural Irish landscape. The collection won the Rooney Prize for Irish Literature a year after its publication.

    Writing desire

    Seven years after Norris’s win, a 1995 referendum signalled further shifts in Irish society. Succeeding by only a whisper, the legalisation of divorce reflected the further weakening influence of the Catholic church, making way for alternative family structures.

    Although Dorcey’s Biography of Desire doesn’t address the referendum directly, its story touches on many of the same issues. The 1997 novel follows the growing relationship between Katherine and Nina. Katherine has left her husband and children to start a new life with Nina.

    While Katherine chooses to only separate from her husband, she is fearful that a judge will grant him full custody of their children because of her lesbian relationship. “Can there be any doubt which of us would be considered the more respectable parent by the law?” she wonders.

    In this regard, the novel anticipates many of the issues that would emerge during the 2015 referendum.


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    Biography of Desire also marks an early exploration of bisexuality in Irish literature, with Katherine and Nina’s intense affair leading critics to position the book as one of the first erotic novels in Irish history.

    Dorcey’s commitment to voicing the fluid possibilities of queerness continues with Katerine’s suggestion: “We ought to be bisexual all of us … Men would learn to surrender themselves to pleasures … and women would learn to please themselves … instead of waiting passively.”

    The novel, however, should not be taken as a simplistic disavowal of heterosexuality, but rather aligned with Dorcey’s mission to explore the universality of human love, life and experience.

    While Dorcey is no longer making such a ruckus at public gatherings, she continues to publish, with her influence on queer Irish literature voiced by the likes of Irish Canadian novelist Emma Donoghue and affirmed by her admittance to the prestigious Irish organisation of artists, the Aosdána in 2010.

    Her most recent poetry collection, Life Holds its Breath (2022), testifies to her talents as a writer, and concludes with the poem Banshee, which reflects on her activist days: “We are the women our mothers / warned us about.”

    Jack Reid does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Mary Dorcey: queer Irish poet illuminates a form of sexuality even the law has overlooked – https://theconversation.com/mary-dorcey-queer-irish-poet-illuminates-a-form-of-sexuality-even-the-law-has-overlooked-256750

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Hay fever: why symptoms are so bad this year – and what to do if your usual remedies aren’t working

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Samuel J. White, Associate Professor & Head of Projects, York St John University

    Birch pollen affects around a quarter of hay fever sufferers in the UK. Dragana Gordic/ Shutterstock

    Hay fever can be annoying at the best of times. But this year, many people are reporting their usual symptoms are worse than ever before – with their normal go-to remedies doing little to provide relief.

    Here’s what you can do if you’re finding that nothing seems to be helping your itchy eyes, sneezing and runny nose this year.

    There are several reasons why hay fever is so bad right now. Climate change and pollution have lengthened and intensified pollen seasons, so trees and grasses now release allergens earlier and for longer. Urban smog may even make pollen grains more potent.

    In the UK, 2025’s unusually dry and warm spring has worsened conditions, leading to earlier and more intense tree pollen release. Birch pollen, which affects around 25% of UK hay fever sufferers, peaked sharply this year due to the high temperatures and low rainfall – two factors which increase pollen production and dispersal. The lack of rain has also prevented pollen from being cleared from the air, prolonging exposure and symptom severity.

    Another issue is timing. For full relief from hay fever symptoms, allergy medicines (especially steroid nasal sprays) should be started one to two weeks before pollen appears. So in the UK, steroid nasal sprays should ideally be started in early March for tree pollen or late April for grass pollen. Starting them late can make them seem ineffective.

    You can also develop new sensitivities, even as an adult. Pollen that didn’t bother you years ago might start causing symptoms now. Grass and birch pollen are among the most common types of seasonal pollen that start bothering people in adulthood.

    Managing symptoms

    If you’re finding allergy pills alone just aren’t cutting it this year, the best thing you can do to reduce symptoms is cut your pollen exposure wherever possible.

    Before going outdoors, check the local pollen forecast. Avoid exercising outside during peak pollen hours (usually mid-morning on dry, windy days).

    If you do go outside, wear a face mask (such as an N95 mask) when pollen counts are high. After coming inside, remove your shoes at the door, change your clothes and take a shower to wash off pollen.

    Inside, you can use a HEPA air purifier or high-MERV filters in your heating or cooling system. These will capture airborne pollen particles, which may help to reduce the severity of your symptoms during high-pollen seasons. On high-pollen days, keep windows and doors closed. You might also want to vacuum with a HEPA-filter vacuum and wash bedding often to remove any pollen.

    While these steps won’t cure allergies, they can sharply reduce your total exposure. This gives medications a better chance to work.

    Wearing a face mask while outdoors may help reduce symptoms.
    Blue Titan/Shutterstock

    While non-drowsy antihistamines such as loratadine, cetirizine and fexofenadine are common first-line treatments, research suggests fexofenadine may provide more consistent symptom relief for people with moderate to severe seasonal allergies compared to other types of antihistamines. However, each person will respond differently – so use whichever type provides you the most relief. Allergy tablets work best when taken daily and pre-emptively, ideally before peak exposure each morning.

    Nasal steroid sprays, such as fluticasone, are often more effective than antihistamines for nasal congestion. These should be started one to two weeks before the allergy season begins and used consistently.

    Allergy wipes and saline nasal rinses may also help reduce pollen exposure – though evidence of their benefit have only been shown in small studies, so larger, high-quality trials confirming their effectiveness are still needed.

    Some people may also decide to try at-home remedies for their symptoms. However, the science behind whether they really work is mixed.

    Take local honey, for example. The idea is that it exposes you to local pollen and helps build tolerance. In reality, the pollen that triggers hay fever is usually windborne and not present in honey. Studies haven’t shown eating it reduces allergy symptoms. At best, it may soothe a sore throat, but it’s not a proven remedy.

    You may have better luck by targeting your gut. Some research suggests a more diverse gut microbiome may help moderate allergic reactions. A recent meta-analysis also found that probiotic supplements can offer a small but measurable improvement in hay fever symptoms. Still, results vary by probiotic strain and treatment length. Probiotics should be seen as a complement to – not a replacement for – conventional allergy management.

    Longer-term fixes

    When symptoms stay severe, allergy immunotherapy – which helps desensitise a hay fever sufferer to pollen – can help. This works like an allergy “vaccine”. You receive tiny, gradually increasing doses of your specific allergen either by regular injection or as a daily under-the-tongue tablet or drop. This trains your immune system to tolerate the pollen and shifts your immune response by making your body better able to block allergens while simultaneously dampening the allergic response.

    In one study, around 90% of patients who underwent a full course of immunotherapy had major relief from symptoms – and this effect often lasted many years. The trade-off with immunotherapy is commitment: a typical course lasts 3–5 years under a specialist’s guidance. But for people with chronic hay fever, immunotherapy can dramatically improve their quality of life.

    Researchers are also refining immunotherapy to make it faster and more efficient. One method, which only requires a few small injections into a lymph node, can reduce symptoms by up to 40% within a season.

    Technology is also reshaping allergy care. Smart monitors and mobile apps can now track pollen and pollution in real time, while AI tools are being developed to identify specific pollen types from air samples. These tools could soon provide personalised alerts to help people avoid triggers before symptoms start.

    Pollen seasons are getting longer and stronger, so allergies can feel worse than in the past. But the good news is that science is keeping pace. By combining smart exposure-reduction strategies with the right medical treatment, most people can significantly reduce their hay fever misery.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Hay fever: why symptoms are so bad this year – and what to do if your usual remedies aren’t working – https://theconversation.com/hay-fever-why-symptoms-are-so-bad-this-year-and-what-to-do-if-your-usual-remedies-arent-working-256751

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Starmer’s winter fuel allowance ‘U-turn’ sets him on a tricky path with backbenchers and voters

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tim Bale, Professor of Politics, Queen Mary University of London

    Turning things around? House of Commons/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

    The U-turn is a long and, depending on your point of view, honourable or dishonourable tradition in British politics. Now Keir Starmer has been accused of following this tradition after heavily hinting the UK government is reconsidering last year’s decision to deny the winter fuel allowance to millions of pensioners.

    As a reminder, the winter fuel payment is a lump sum of £200 or £300 paid to pensioner households to help pay heating bills. Last year, the government restricted eligibility to those who qualify for pension credit or other income-related benefits, in order to save £1.4 billion.

    This was followed by months of pressure from Labour MPs that has intensified since the local elections. Starmer seemed to confirm at prime minister’s questions on May 21 that the government would change the threshold (by how much remains unclear), allowing more pensioners to qualify for the payment.


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    One view is that this is a belated but ultimately sensible recognition, in the wake of Labour’s drubbing at the local elections, that the policy was hurting the party badly. On the other hand, in giving in to pressure to ditch it, the government may be setting a dangerous precedent. Capitulate on this and Labour’s anxious backbenchers would soon be demanding Starmer and Rachel Reeves go back on their intention to cut billions from the welfare budget.

    Both takes are essentially correct. Polling evidence points to the removal of the allowance being one of the most unpopular measures announced by the government since it came to power in 2024. Regardless of the £22 billion “black hole” in the public finances, taking a universal benefit away from a bunch of people who are regarded by most voters as uniquely deserving was bound to be as politically toxic as it was (arguably) financially rational.

    The only question now is quite how far Starmer’s rethink on the payment to pensioners will go. He has said the government will look at changing the income threshold that determines eligibility, but has not said by how much.

    One has to ask whether a change along those lines would actually constitute a U-turn at all. By definition, a U-turn is a 180-degree reversal of a previous commitment. In this particular case, that would mean restoring the allowance to everyone in receipt of a state pension, irrespective of their income or wealth.

    This is not merely semantic nitpicking, a pointy-headed demand for terminological exactitude. It’s a deeply political question.

    Will a complicated (and costly) mitigation of the policy be sufficient – symbolically and substantively – to cut through to a disappointed electorate? And will Starmer be able to convince the public that this is a government holding its hand up, admitting it got it wrong, and determined now to do the right thing?

    How to U-turn

    Successful U-turns have tended to be big and bold. The best example, perhaps, is John Major’s announcement after he took over from Margaret Thatcher in 1990 that he was scrapping the poll tax. “Scrapping” is the operative word: unlike Thatcher, he didn’t try to preserve the principle of a per person charge by getting the Treasury to subsidise individuals’ bills. Instead, he returned to financing local government via a charge to households rather than every adult within them.

    And as for the parliamentary precedents, history teaches us that once a government’s MPs realise they can prevent it from doing something they’re convinced will harm their chances of re-election, they will try to do exactly that – however much the policy makes long-term sense for the nation as a whole. Just look at how “Nimby” (not in my back yard) Tory backbenchers continually scuppered the last government’s attempts to get more houses built in those parts of the country that needed them most.

    That’s not to say that Starmer and Reeves won’t now get their way on welfare cuts (or “welfare reform” as they like to frame the issue). Labour has a massive majority, and its MPs aren’t (yet) as habituated to rebellion as their Conservative counterparts became over the course of their party’s 14 years in power.

    What’s more, we are still four years from a general election, and the media narrative around “benefit cheats” means voters are far more inclined to support cuts to welfare than, say, the NHS.

    Whether, then, Starmer’s U-turn (if, indeed, we should really be calling it that) works – whether electorally or in terms of his ability to force his backbenchers to accept measures they don’t like – remains to be seen.

    Unfortunately for him, he faces something of a paradox. In order to convince the public, he should probably go the whole hog; but doing so may well render his life at Westminster rather trickier than he would like it to be.

    No surprise there, perhaps. After all, “Politics,” the economist JK Galbraith once suggested to US President John F. Kennedy, “is not the art of the possible. It consists in choosing between the disastrous and the unpalatable”.

    Tim Bale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Starmer’s winter fuel allowance ‘U-turn’ sets him on a tricky path with backbenchers and voters – https://theconversation.com/starmers-winter-fuel-allowance-u-turn-sets-him-on-a-tricky-path-with-backbenchers-and-voters-257360

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Just three nights of poor sleep might harm your heart – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Annie Curtis, Professor (Assoc), School of Pharmacy and Biomolecular Sciences (PBS), RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences

    Prostock studio/Shutterstock

    We’ve long known that a lack of sleep is bad for the heart – but scientists are now starting to understand exactly how it causes harm.

    In a new study from Uppsala University in Sweden, researchers found that just three nights of restricted sleep – around four hours a night – triggered changes in the blood linked to a higher risk of heart disease.

    The researchers looked at inflammatory proteins in the blood. These are molecules the body produces when it is under stress or fighting off illness. When these proteins stay high for a long time, they can damage blood vessels and raise the risk of problems like heart failure, coronary heart disease and atrial fibrillation (irregular heartbeat).

    The study involved 16 healthy young men who spent several days in a lab, where everything from their meals to their activity levels and light exposure was carefully controlled.


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    The participants followed two routines: three nights of normal sleep (8.5 hours) and three night of sleep restriction (4.25 hours). After each sleep phase, the men completed a short, high-intensity cycling workout, and their blood was tested before and after.

    Researchers measured almost 90 different proteins in the blood samples. They found that sleep deprivation caused a clear rise in inflammatory markers linked to heart disease. And while exercise usually boosts healthy proteins such as interleukin-6 and BDNF (which support brain and heart health), these responses were weaker after poor sleep.

    The researchers looked at 90 protein markers in the blood of healthy volunteers.
    Dusan Petkovic/Shutterstock

    Even young adults

    Strikingly, the changes happened even in young, healthy adults, and after only a few nights of bad sleep. That’s worrying given how common it is for adults to experience poor sleep from time to time – and around one in four people work shifts that disrupt sleep patterns.

    The researchers also discovered that the time of day blood was taken mattered: protein levels varied between morning and evening, and even more so when sleep was restricted. This suggests that sleep affects not only what’s in your blood, but when those changes are most visible.

    Although modern life often encourages us to trade sleep for productivity, socialising or screen time, studies like this remind us that the body keeps score – quietly, chemically and without compromise.

    Annie Curtis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Just three nights of poor sleep might harm your heart – new study – https://theconversation.com/just-three-nights-of-poor-sleep-might-harm-your-heart-new-study-256534

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine: it’s clear right now there are no serious plans for peace

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    When it comes to the sincerity, or otherwise, of Vladimir Putin’s apparent willingness to talk peace with Ukraine, the Russian leader has given us plenty of hints. He may insist he wants to see a deal done and an end to the killing. But his insistence that any agreement would have to address the “root causes” of the war is a clear indication that he hasn’t rowed back from his original maximalist war aims. To whit: no Nato membership, a Kremlin-friendly government in Kyiv, ownership of Crimea and control – preferably annexation – of the four provinces of Ukraine presently under Russian occupation.

    Meanwhile his great ally Dmitry Medvedev continues to insist that there are at present no Ukrainian officials who legitimately qualify as partners for negotiation. The Russian national security council secretary claims that Ukraine is a “failed state” whose leaders’ lack of legitimacy, meanwhile, raise “serious questions” about who Russia can conclude any agreement with.

    So when Donald Trump said this week after a two-hour chat with Putin that Russia and Ukraine would “immediately start negotiations” toward a ceasefire, it’s not clear who he thought the Russian president was planning to talk to if, as Putin and his cronies insist, Zelensky and his team are not legitimate. And, from what he had to say about his recent phone call with Putin, it appears that Trump has his eyes more on the sorts of deals that might be done with Russia once this is all cleared up.

    As he posted on his Truth Social platform after talking with Putin: “Russia wants to do largescale [sic] TRADE with the United States when this catastrophic ‘bloodbath’ is over, and I agree. There is a tremendous opportunity for Russia to create massive amounts of jobs and wealth. Its potential is UNLIMITED.”

    Accordingly, he has backed away from his previous willingness to join Europe in imposing fresh sanctions on Russia. Meanwhile Russia continues to hammer Ukraine both on the battlefield and via ever larger drone and missiles attacks against its civilian population.


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    The real clue to Trump’s attitude, writes Stefan Wolff, is the order of phone calls on Monday. Before settling down to talk with Putin, the US president put in a call to the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky. Reporting back on the call, Zelensky said he had urged Trump that he mustn’t make any decisions about Ukraine “without us”. Having subsequently spoken at length with Putin, Trump emerged saying in his Truth Social post that Russia and Ukraine will “immediately start negotiations” towards a ceasefire and an end to the war.

    The state of the conflict in Ukraine, May 21 2025.
    Institute for the Study of War

    But Wolff, professor of international security at the University of Birmingham who has written regularly here about the conflict, believes that the fact that Trump added the conditions for peace “will be negotiated between the two parties, as it can only be” suggests he is indeed planning to abandon his peacemaking ambitions. The whole deal was taking far longer than the 24 hours he boasted of during the election campaign last year.

    Where this leaves Europe is unclear, writes Wolff. If it can no longer rely on Washington as a security partner (and the signs aren’t good), then this will require a substantial rethink. Indeed there are signs, with the UK’s recent agreement over security and defence, that minds are increasingly focused on a more self-reliant future. In turn, this has implications for US security. If Europe is compelled to rethink its security relationship with the US it could cut both ways as Washington pivots to face an increasingly aggressive China.




    Read more:
    After another call with Putin, it looks like Trump has abandoned efforts to mediate peace in Ukraine


    Of course, it should have been clear to all concerned not to take Putin at face value over his apparent willingness to talk peace with Zelensky when he failed to turn up to talks in Istanbul at the end of last week. As Natasha Lindstaedt writes here, none of the main players attended the talks, despite plans for Putin, Zelensky and Trump to all meet face-to-face.

    Lindstaedt, an expert in international relations at the University of Essex, describes what for all the world seemed like a bizarre game of bluff – certainly as far as Putin and Trump are concerned. All three leaders had promised to be there, but in the end they all sent intermediaries with the result that nothing of any consequence was agreed. Trump’s aides insisted that if Putin attended he would be there. Then the US president said the reason that Putin hadn’t turned up was because he knew Trump wasn’t going to be there.

    “It’s certainly hard to take peace talks seriously when there is an awkward back-and-forth just about who is going to attend,” Lindstaedt concludes. “And while Trump thinks peace is only possible through bilateral meetings between himself and Putin, it’s clear he can’t even influence Putin to show up to peace talks that the Russian president himself suggested.”




    Read more:
    Putin is testing how far he can push Trump by not turning up for Istanbul talks


    Pie in the sky?

    The US president, meanwhile, has announced plans for an ambitious missile defence system to be called “Golden Dome”. It’s a next-generation system, says Trump, “capable even of intercepting missiles launched from the other side of the world, or launched from space”.

    The plan, for which US$25 billion (£18.6 billion) has been set aside in the US president’s “one big beautiful bill”, presently before the US Congress, calls for a network of surveillance satellites complemented by a separate fleet of offensive satellites that would shoot down offensive missiles soon after lift-off. Trump has estimated this will cost US$175 billion and will be completed by the end of his current four-year term. But other estimates are that it will be much more expensive and take far longer to complete.

    “There has never been anything like this”, the US president said. And indeed there hasn’t, writes Matthew Powell, an expert in air power from the University of Portsmouth. In fact, Powell is deeply sceptical that the technology to enable such an ambitious defence system exists at present. He points to Ronald Reagan’s Strategic Defense Initiative, which became known by critics, with their tongues in their cheeks, as “Star Wars”, which never really got any further than the drawing board.

    It did, however, have the effect of signalling to the Kremlin and the Soviet leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, that the sky would be the limit in terms of US willingness to push the boundaries of defence spending. Powell believes it significantly changed the calculations when it came to the feasibility of continuing the nuclear arms race and may have been responsible for the end of the cold war.




    Read more:
    Golden Dome: what Trump should learn from Reagan’s ‘Star Wars’ missile defence system plan


    Incidentally, the US president’s funding bill scraped through the House of Representatives with 215 votes for and 214 against. In addition to setting aside funds for Golden Dome, the bill, which in its current form adds trillions of dollars to the US debt, has been described by Democrat critics as a “tax scam”. A statement from Democrat leaders said: “This fight is just beginning, and House Democrats will continue to use every tool at our disposal to ensure that the GOP Tax Scam is buried deep in the ground, never to rise again.”

    But how much stomach do the Democrats have for the fight? They’ve had a pretty terrible few months since the election. Their approval rating in March was at 29%, the worst since polling began in 1992. Fernando Pizarro, a lecturer in journalism at City St Georges, University of London, who has several Emmys under his belt for his work on US politics, has cast his eye over some of the leading Democrats who he thinks will spearhead the opposition to the Republicans over the next few years and identifies a few players who could vie for the presidential nomination in 2028.




    Read more:
    The top Democrats leading the fight against Trump’s agenda


    Gaza: situation increasingly desperate

    Meanwhile, after 11 weeks of Israeli blockade of aid to the people of Gaza, limited deliveries have now recommenced in the face of pressure from both the US and increasingly outspoken interventions from the likes of the UK, France and Canada.

    But despite reports that up to 100 trucks are now being allowed into the Gaza Strip, human rights agencies and aid organisations have said that there is a desperate threat of widespread starvation unless the amount of food, fuel and medicine getting through increases exponentially. And fast.

    There is talk of a US-administered programme, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which could be up and running by the end of May and could accelerate the delivery of vital supplies to the civilian population while ensuring it does not does not get into the hands of militants or black marketeers.

    But this scheme has its critics, write Sarah Schiffling and Liz Breen, experts in humanitarian logistics and health service operations at Hanken School of Economics and the University of Bradford respectively. They point to a number of flaws, including the plan to concentrate the secure distribution points in southern and central Gaza, forcing large numbers of people to travel considerable distances for supplies.

    The GHF plan also calls for aid distribution to be coordinated with the Israel Defense Forces, which humanitarian organisations says is a “humanitarian cover for a military strategy of control and dispossession”.

    Schiffling and Breen point out that humanitarian organisations have 160,000 pallets of supplies and almost 9,000 aid trucks ready to be dispatched across the border “as soon as Israel allows it”. Whether Israel will allow it is, of course, another question entirely.




    Read more:
    Israel allows a ‘limited’ amount of aid back into Gaza, where the humanitarian situation is desperate


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    ref. Ukraine: it’s clear right now there are no serious plans for peace – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-its-clear-right-now-there-are-no-serious-plans-for-peace-257388

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: Punitive criminal libel charge against Samoan journalist draws flurry of criticism

    Pacific Media Watch

    A punitive defamation charge filed against one of Samoa’s most experienced and trusted journalists last week has sparked a flurry of criticism over abuse of power and misuse of a law that has long been heavily criticised as outdated.

    Talamua Online senior journalist Lagi Keresoma, who is also president of the Journalists Association of Samoa (JAWS), was charged with one count of defamation under Section 117A of Samoa’s Crimes Act 2013 on May 18.

    She was elected in 2021 as the first woman to hold the presidency.

    The charge followed an article she had published more than two weeks earlier on May 1 alleging that a former police officer had appealed to Samoa’s Head of State to have charges against him withdrawn.

    The accused was charged with “allegedly forging the signature of the complainant as guarantor to secure a $200,000 loan from the Samoa National Provident Fund”. He denies the allegation.

    It was reported that the complainant was another senior police officer.

    Police Commissioner Auapaau Logoitino Filipo reportedly said the officer had filed a complaint over the May 1 article, claiming its contents were false and amounted to defamation.

    Criminal libel removed, then restored
    The criminal libel law was removed by the Samoan government in 2013, but was revived four years later in 2017. It was claimed at the time that it was needed to deal with issues triggered by social media.

    JAWS immediately defended their president, saying it stood in “full solidarity” with Keresoma and calling for an immediate repeal of the law.

    The association said the provision was a “troubling development for press freedom in Samoa” and added that it “should not be used to silence journalists and discourage investigative reporting”.

    “It is deeply concerning that a journalist of Lagi Keresoma’s integrity and professionalism is being prosecuted under a law that has long been criticised for its negative effect on press freedom,” said the association.

    Talamua Online senior journalist Lagi Keresoma . . . charged with criminal defamation over a report earlier this month. Image: Samoa Observer

    Keresoma told Talamua Online she had been summoned twice to the police station and the police suggested that she apologise publicly and to the complainant and the complaint would be withdrawn.

    However, she said: “To apologise is an admission that the story is wrong, so after speaking to my lawyer and my editor, it was decided to have the police file their charges, but no apology from my end.”

    Her lawyer also contacted the police investigating officer informing that her client was not making a statement but to prepare the charges against her.

    Keresoma was summoned to the police headquarters on Saturday and Sunday and the charges were only finalised on Monday morning before she was released.

    She is due to appear in court next month.

    Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson, the JAWS gender spokesperson with the International Federation of Journalists (IFJ), said in a statement Keresoma was a veteran Samoan journalist with “decades of service” to the public and media.

    ‘Outdated and controversial provision’
    “Her arrest under this outdated and controversial provision raises serious concerns about the misuse of legal tools to silence independent journalism. The action appears heavy-handed and disproportionate, and risks being perceived as an abuse of power to suppress public scrutiny and dissent,” Lagipoiva said.

    “The United Nations Human Rights Committee and UN Special Rapporteurs, particularly the UN Special Rapporteur on the promotion and protection of the right to freedom of opinion and expression, have repeatedly called for defamation to be treated as a civil matter, not a criminal one.

    “The continued application of criminal defamation in Samoa contradicts international standards and poses a chilling threat to press freedom, particularly for women journalists who already face systemic risks and intimidation.”

    Pacific Media Watch notes: “This is a disturbing development in Pacific media freedom trends. Clearly it is a clumsy attempt to intimidate and silence in-depth investigation and reporting on Pacific governance.

    “For years, Samoa has been a beacon for media freedom in the region, but it has fared badly in the latest World Press Freedom Index and this incident involving alleged criminal libel, a crime that should have been struck from the statutes years ago, is not going to help Samoa’s standing.

    “Journalism is not a crime.”

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz