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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor’s second-term defence priorities – could they include a pact with Europe?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Layton, Visiting Fellow, Strategic Studies, Griffith University

    1000 Words/Shutterstock

    An apt metaphor for the Department of Defence in Labor’s second term might be the Titanic. The good ship “defence” has hit an iceberg: the senior officers are reassuring all is fine, the band is playing and the crew are busy. But the ship is gradually sinking.

    The iceberg is the $A368 billion AUKUS nuclear submarine project. The scale of the program in terms of money, time and workforce is progressively damaging the rest of the defence portfolio. AUKUS is now so large it is seen as a fourth service, alongside the navy, army and air force.

    Given the challenges facing Australia’s defence budget, what are we to make of the proposed defence pact with the European Union?

    European defence partners

    An ever-changing world always intrudes on defence planning.

    The latest is the European Union (EU) suggesting a defence partnership with Australia. To some degree, this simply formalises existing arrangements and practices. Individual European nations, such as Germany and France, already have strategic partnerships with Australia, while Italy and Spain undertake defence training in Darwin.

    A new partnership would elevate Australia’s European defence relationships to a different level, given the EU is a supra-national grouping of 27 countries with a GDP comparable to the United States. On the upside, EU defence spending is steadily being increased, creating new possibilities for Australian defence industry exports and the joint manufacture of selected equipment such as Germany’s Boxer vehicle in Brisbane.

    But funding a deepening relationship with the EU while sustaining those in the Indo-Pacific would be challenging. And AUKUS means the government will need to carefully balance today’s demands with suddenly emerging pressures.

    Treading water

    If the Europeans do land a defence pact with Australia – will it be worth their while?

    In this decade, Australia’s defence budget will simply be marking time. AUKUS has already begun crowding out other defence possibilities that might better fit today’s changed strategic circumstances.

    The navy’s surface warship fleet will decline until well into the 2030s. Its ageing amphibious and submarine fleets have become unreliable and its two brand new replenishment oilers are both inexplicably unserviceable.

    The army, unsure of itself, is crafting a new “theory of army” to update strategic and operational principles.

    Billions are being spent buying new-build and refurbished armoured vehicles, and old-design helicopters. These projects commenced before Labor’s first term and are less suited to today’s needs.

    The RAAF is better off, having finally received the last of its F-35 fighters even if they need updating as soon as possible. Ideally, the air force should be investing now in future new equipment for delivery in the 2030s, when some current in-service aircraft approach their end of life. But thanks to AUKUS, there is no money for this.

    No time to waste

    Both the Morrsion and the first Albanese government emphasised that this decade is particularly dangerous: a major war might break out unexpectedly.

    Three areas stand out for Labor to get busy on:

    1. The Trump Factor

    The Trump factor is threatening the existing defence plans built around tight military integration with the US. US President Donald Trump’s policy volatility makes the US an unreliable ally. This uncertainty works against relying on defence plans that literally bet the future of the nation on US support in time of war.

    The new National Defence Strategy due in early 2026, must address the Trump factor in a robust and comprehensive manner. The scale of the problem may mean a new grand strategy is needed.

    2. Labor’s first term Strategic Defence Review

    This review was fundamentally flawed. It failed to consider AUKUS – or indeed the navy’s surface war fleet – in its overall advice on the design of the future Australian Defence Force. Nor did it include defence funding needs in any detail beyond “should be increased”.

    Consequently, the review provided an inadequate foundation on which to forecast a long term plan for the force. This plan is now being steadily distorted as factors not previously considered intrude. The flow on effect means the original planned growth in defence budgets is now seriously insufficient.

    For better or worse, defence must be rebuilt around AUKUS. The attempt to keep the two separate has failed. AUKUS is no longer just a submarine project, but the core of the future defence force.

    As a result, army modernisation and the navy’s large amphibious ships look vulnerable.

    3. Future opportunities

    There are opportunities for the Australian Defence Force, despite the challenges. For example, the very rapid rise of robots being demonstrated in Ukraine portends the future of warfare.

    High tech robotics are an investment opportunity for the Australian Defence Force.
    Parilov/Shutterstock

    Defence is presently trapped in the old paradigm of buying a few large and very expensive crewed platforms like AUKUS, and is neglecting emerging uncrewed system models that are small and affordable.

    The defence department lacks money to explore such new ideas but the government could use the mostly untapped A$15 billion reconstruction fund, which handily includes defence manufacturing as a priority.

    Australian defence industry is potentially on the cusp of becoming a regional uncrewed system manufacturer, including the high-end Ghost Bats and Ghost Sharks, or the more affordable Speartooths, Fathoms, Bluebottles and Atlases. Australian made uncrewed systems have been combat proven in Ukraine.

    The reconstruction fund could build this industry sector, moving defence into the future and ensuring defence industry survives the AUKUS iceberg.

    Peter Layton does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor’s second-term defence priorities – could they include a pact with Europe? – https://theconversation.com/labors-second-term-defence-priorities-could-they-include-a-pact-with-europe-256580

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Nationals break the Coalition, in a major blow to Sussan Ley

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The Nationals have broken the Coalition, for the first time in nearly four decades, because new Liberal leader Sussan Ley would not agree to their policy demands being part of a new agreement between the parties.

    Ley had hoped an agreement could be reached. The split will make running a strong opposition more difficult and complicated.

    The Nationals’ dramatic decision is also likely to risk greater instability within the Liberals, where the numbers between the conservatives on one hand and the moderates and centrists on the other are narrowly balanced.

    Nationals leader David Littleproud told a news conference on Tuesday morning the party, which met earlier Tuesday morning, had taken a “principled” decision to sit alone.

    Littlepround said Ley – who has said all policies are on the table – needed to rebuild the Liberal Party. “They are going on a journey of rediscovery, and this will provide them the opportunity to do that without the spectre of the National Party imposing their will.”

    He said the Nationals wanted to look forward, “not having to look back and to try and actually regain important policy pieces that change the lives of the people we represent.

    “We wanted to look forward and not have to look back and have to continue to fight for another three years.”

    Littleproud said he “made it very clear that we remain committed to having the door open, respecting the position that Sussan has been put in. That she is a leader that needs to rebuild the Liberal Party.”

    He said his preference was to bring the Coalition together “hopefully before the next election”. “I’m passionate in the belief that we can bring this back together”. His deputy, Kevin Hogan, said he hoped the parties would come together again “sooner rather than later”.

    The minor party demanded the election policies of competition laws including divestiture provisions; nuclear power; a $20 billion proposed regional Australian future fund, and better standards for regional communications be preserved. Ley wanted the agreement to be about the architecture of the Coalition rather than including policy demands.

    The Coalition has broken only twice before since 1949. After the 1972 Labor election win, the Liberal Party and the then Country Party separated. They reunited before the May 1974 election. There was another split, under the pressure of the Joh-for-Canberra campaign, for several months in 1987.

    The split means the Nationals will lose some extra pay that goes to frontbenchers.

    The Nationals’ stand is a victory for the party’s hardliners, although it is notable that the issue of net zero by 2050 was not one of the sticking points nominated by the Nationals.

    The party’s position vis-a-vis the Liberals was strengthened because it held almost all its seats, while the Liberals’ numbers were devastated. So far the Australian Electoral Commission has declared 18 seats for the Liberals in the House of Representatives, nine for the Nationals, and 16 for the Liberal National Party of Queensland, where they operate as one party.

    The Nationals met on the issue on Friday before more talks between Littlepround and Ley. After Tuesday’s meeting, Littleproud spoke to Ley to inform her of the decision. Ley called a “virtual” Liberal Party meeting for Tuesday afternoon.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nationals break the Coalition, in a major blow to Sussan Ley – https://theconversation.com/nationals-break-the-coalition-in-a-major-blow-to-sussan-ley-256455

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can you treat headaches with physiotherapy? Here’s what the research says

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Zhiqi Liang, Lecturer in Physiotherapy, The University of Queensland

    BaanTaksinStudio/Shutterstock

    You might’ve noticed some physiotherapists advertise they offer treatments for headaches and wondered: would that work?

    In fact, there’s a solid body of research showing that physiotherapy treatments can be really helpful for certain types of headache.

    Sometimes, however, medical management is also necessary and it’s worth seeing a doctor. Here’s what you need to know.

    Cervicogenic headache: when pain travels up your neck

    Cervicogenic headache is where pain is referred from the top of the neck (an area known as the upper cervical spine).

    Pain is usually one-sided. It generally starts just beneath the skull at the top of the neck, spreading into the back of the head and sometimes into the back of the eye.

    Neck pain and headache are often triggered by activities that put strain on the neck, such as holding one posture or position for a long time, or doing repetitive neck movements (such as looking up and down repeatedly).

    Unlike in migraine, people experiencing cervicogenic headache don’t usually get nausea or sensitivity to light and sound.

    Because this is a musculoskeletal condition of the upper neck, physiotherapy treatments that improve neck function – such as manual therapy, exercise and education – can provide short- and long-term benefits.

    Cervicogenic headache is where pain is referred from the top of the neck.
    24K-Production/Shutterstock

    Can physio help with migraine?

    Migraine is a neurological disorder whereby the brain has difficulty processing sensory input.

    This can cause episodic attacks of moderate to severe headache, as well as:

    • sensitivity to light and noise
    • nausea and
    • intolerance to physical exertion.

    There are many triggers. Everyone’s are different and identifying yours is crucial to self-management of migraine. Medication can also help, so seeing a GP is the first step if you suspect you have migraine.

    About 70-80% of people with migraine also have neck pain, commonly just before or at the onset of a migraine attack. This can make people think their neck pain is triggering the migraine.

    While this may be true in some people, our research has shown many people with migraine have nothing wrong with their neck despite having neck pain.

    In those cases, neck pain is part of migraine and can be a warning (but not a cause or trigger) of an imminent migraine attack. It can signal patients need to take steps to prevent the attack.

    Migraine is a neurological disorder whereby the brain has difficulty processing sensory input.
    Srdjan Randjelovic/Shutterstock

    On the other hand, if the person has musculoskeletal neck disorder, physiotherapy neck treatments may help improve their migraine. Musculoskeletal neck disorder is what physiotherapists call typical neck pain caused by, for instance, a sports injury or sleeping in a weird way.

    You may have heard of the Watson manual therapy technique being used to treat migraine. It involves applying manual pressure to the upper cervical spine and neck area.

    There are currently no peer-reviewed studies looking at how effective this technique is for migraine.

    However, recent studies investigating a combination of manual therapy, neck exercises and education tailored to the individual’s circumstances show some small effects in improving the number of migraine attacks and the disabling effects of headache.

    Manual therapy and neck exercises can also give short-term pain relief.

    However, in some cases the neck can become very sensitive and easily aggravated in migraine. That means inappropriate assessment or treatment could end up triggering a migraine.

    Physiotherapy can help with migraine but you first need a comprehensive and skilled physical assessment of the neck by an experienced physiotherapist. It’s crucial to identify if a musculoskeletal neck disorder is present and, if so, which type of neck treatment is needed.

    It is also important people with migraine understand how their migraine is triggered, what lifestyle factors contribute to it and when to take the appropriate medications to help manage their migraines.

    A trained physiotherapist can provide some of this information and help patients make sense of their condition and recommend the patient see their GP for medication, when appropriate.

    What about tension headaches?

    Tension type headache is the most common type of headache, characterised by a feeling of “tightness” or “band-like” pain around the head.

    Nausea and sensitivity to light and noise are not usually present with this type of headache.

    Like migraine, tension type headache is often associated with neck pain and also has different aggravating factors, not all of which are due to the neck.

    Tension type headache is often associated with neck pain.
    staras/Shutterstock

    Again, a detailed assessment by a trained physiotherapist is needed to identify if the neck is involved and what type of neck treatment is best.

    There is some evidence a combination of manual therapy and exercise can reduce tension type headache.

    Physiotherapists can also provide education and advice on aggravating factors and self management.

    Seeking help

    There are many types and causes of headache. If you suffer frequent headaches or have a new or unusual headache, ask a doctor to investigate.

    There is good evidence physiotherapy treatment will improve cervicogenic headache and emerging evidence it might help migraine and tension type headache (alongside usual medical care).

    If you are wondering if you have cervicogenic headache or if you have bothersome neck pain associated with headache, ask your doctor to refer you to a skilled physiotherapist trained in headache treatment. A careful assessment can determine if physiotherapy treatment will help.

    Zhiqi Liang received funding from the Australian Physiotherapy Association and the Physiotherapy Research Foundation. She is affiliated with the Australian College of Physiotherapists and the Australian Physiotherapy Association.

    Julia Treleaven and Lucy Thomas do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can you treat headaches with physiotherapy? Here’s what the research says – https://theconversation.com/can-you-treat-headaches-with-physiotherapy-heres-what-the-research-says-256581

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for May 20, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on May 20, 2025.

    Can you treat headaches with physiotherapy? Here’s what the research says
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zhiqi Liang, Lecturer in Physiotherapy, The University of Queensland BaanTaksinStudio/Shutterstock You might’ve noticed some physiotherapists advertise they offer treatments for headaches and wondered: would that work? In fact, there’s a solid body of research showing that physiotherapy treatments can be really helpful for certain types of headache.

    NZ joins call for Israel to allow full resumption of aid to Gaza
    New Zealand has joined 22 other countries and the European Union in calling for Israel to allow a full resumption of aid into Gaza immediately. The partners also said Israel must enable the United Nations and humanitarian organisations to work independently and impartially “to save lives, reduce suffering, and maintain dignity.” Israel imposed a blockade

    Can cats drink milk? Despite the stereotypes, it’s actually a bad idea
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julia Henning, PhD Candidate in Feline Behaviour, School of Animal and Veterinary Science, University of Adelaide Shawn Rain/Unsplash Cats have a long history with humans, going back more than 9,000 years. Attracted to human settlements by the rodents that plagued (sometimes literally) our ancestors, cats ingratiated themselves

    Boredom gets a bad rap. But science says it can actually be good for us
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Kennedy, Youth Mental Health Researcher, University of the Sunshine Coast We have all experienced boredom – that feeling of waning interest or decreased mental stimulation. Eventually we lose focus, we disengage. Time seems to pass slowly, and we may even start to feel restless. Whether it

    15 years ago, I urged the AFL to launch a mental health round. Now it’s time for action
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pat McGorry, Professor of Psychiatry, The University of Melbourne The death of former AFL footballer Adam Selwood, less than four months after the death by suicide of his twin Troy, is an unfathomable tragedy for the Selwood family. The devastating news has sent shockwaves through the AFL

    Does drawing on memory help us solve problems? Our experiment gave some surprising answers
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anne Macaskill, Senior Lecturer in Experimental Psychology, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Conventional wisdom suggests memories of past experiences can help us navigate problems in the present. For example, if a friend told you they were having a disagreement with their partner,

    Speight’s Fiji coup had more to do with power, greed than iTaukei rights, says Chaudhry
    Today marks the 25th anniversary of the May 19, 2000, coup led by renegade businessman George Speight. The deposed Prime Minister, Mahendra Chaudhry, says Speight’s motive had less to do with indigenous rights and a lot more to do with power, greed, and access to the millions likely to accrue from Fiji’s mahogany plantation. On

    The federal government wants to boost productivity. Science can help
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deanna D’Alessandro, Professor & Director, Net Zero Institute, University of Sydney Daniel Sone/National Cancer Institute In the wake of Labor’s resounding victory in Australia’s federal election earlier this month, there has been much talk about flailing productivity in Australia. In fact, last week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese

    Fish driving cars and chimps doing maths: what teaching animals ‘irrelevant’ skills reveals about our own minds
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Scarlett Howard, Research Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University VixtorPhoto / Shutterstock Did you know goldfish can learn to drive cars? Have you heard bumblebees can learn to pull on a string? Would you believe some primates can perform calculations with Arabic numerals? These tasks seem

    Surviving swamps on South Australia’s parched Fleurieu Peninsula are a lifeline to wildlife – and farmers
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Auricht, Visiting Research Fellow in Natural Resources Management, University of Adelaide Yundi Nature Conservancy, CC BY-NC-ND South Australia is famously the driest state on the driest inhabited continent. But even for South Australia, the current drought is extreme. Rainfall has been the lowest on record across

    ‘No pain, no gain’: why some primary students are following intense study routines
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina Ho, Associate professor in Social and Political Sciences, University of Technology Sydney MNStudio/ Shutterstock Every year, thousands of New South Wales students sit a test to determine places for highly sought-after selective high schools. These are academically selective public schools often associated with high Year 12

    NZ Budget 2025: anything less than a 5% increase in health funding amounts to merely standing still
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Tenbensel, Professor of Health Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau Health Minister Simeon Brown. Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images Minister of Health Simeon Brown claimed earlier this year that health funding in New Zealand has never been higher and that suggestions of underfunding are “fake news”. On

    From the Liver King to ultramarathons, fitness influencers are glorifying extreme masculinity where ‘pain is the point’
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samuel Cornell, PhD Candidate in Public Health & Community Medicine, School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney Netflix/Untold: The Liver King A new Netflix documentary about a shirtless supplement salesman who claimed to be “natural” and was exposed as a fraud might seem like a punchline. But Untold:

    Former Canberra diplomat Ali Kuzak dies on the way to Palestine
    Ali Kazak: born Haifa, 1947; died May 17 2025, Thailand By Helen Musa in Canberra Former Palestinian diplomat and long-time Canberra identity Ali Kazak died on Saturday en route to Palestine. Sources at the Canberra Islamic Centre report that he was recovering from heart surgery and died during a stopover in Thailand. Kazak was born

    Environmentalists question Henry Puna’s role in deep sea mining firm
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Environmentalists in the Cook Islands have criticised former Prime Minister and Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) head Henry Puna for joining the board of a deep sea mining company. Puna, who finished his term as PIF secretary-general in May last year, played a pivotal part in the creation of multi-use

    Legal News – Former NZ Associate Minister Of Foreign Affairs Calls On NZ Government To Uphold International Law Over US Designation of Cuba
    Source: Hon Matthew Robson Former NZ Associate Minister Of Foreign Affairs, Hon Matt Robson, has called on the New Zealand Government to uphold International Law. “New Zealand prides itself on being in the forefront of countries supporting the international rule of law and not the international rule of might ”, said former Associate Foreign Minister

    Climate scientists are trusted globally, just not as much as other scientists – here’s why
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Omid Ghasemi, Research Associate in Behavioural Science at the Institute for Climate Risk & Response, UNSW Sydney I. Noyan Yilmaz, Shutterstock Societies increasingly rely on scientists to guide decisions in times of uncertainty, from pandemic outbreaks to the rise of artificial intelligence. Addressing climate change is no

    Joe Biden has advanced prostate cancer with a Gleason score of 9. What does this mean?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sarah Diepstraten, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer Division, WEHI (Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research) Former US President Joe Biden has been diagnosed with an aggressive form of prostate cancer that has already spread to his bones. A statement Biden’s office issued

    Open letter from John Cusack: ‘The children of Gaza need your outrage – end the siege’
    Pacific Media Watch American film star celebrity John Cusack, who describes himself on his x-page bio as an “apocalyptic shit-disturber”, has posted an open letter to the world denouncing the Israeli “mass murder” in Gaza and calling for “your outrage”. While warning the public to “don’t stop talking about Palestine/Gaza”, he says that the “hollow

    Russia is labelling Oscar Jenkins a ‘mercenary’, not a prisoner of war. What’s the difference – and why does this matter?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shannon Bosch, Associate Professor (Law), Edith Cowan University Oscar Jenkins, a 33-year-old former teacher from Melbourne, was one of many foreigners who responded to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s call in 2022 for volunteers to join Ukraine’s armed forces to help repel Russia’s invasion. In early 2024, Jenkins

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Can you treat headaches with physiotherapy? Here’s what the research says

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zhiqi Liang, Lecturer in Physiotherapy, The University of Queensland

    BaanTaksinStudio/Shutterstock

    You might’ve noticed some physiotherapists advertise they offer treatments for headaches and wondered: would that work?

    In fact, there’s a solid body of research showing that physiotherapy treatments can be really helpful for certain types of headache.

    Sometimes, however, medical management is also necessary and it’s worth seeing a doctor. Here’s what you need to know.

    Cervicogenic headache: when pain travels up your neck

    Cervicogenic headache is where pain is referred from the top of the neck (an area known as the upper cervical spine).

    Pain is usually one-sided. It generally starts just beneath the skull at the top of the neck, spreading into the back of the head and sometimes into the back of the eye.

    Neck pain and headache are often triggered by activities that put strain on the neck, such as holding one posture or position for a long time, or doing repetitive neck movements (such as looking up and down repeatedly).

    Unlike in migraine, people experiencing cervicogenic headache don’t usually get nausea or sensitivity to light and sound.

    Because this is a musculoskeletal condition of the upper neck, physiotherapy treatments that improve neck function – such as manual therapy, exercise and education – can provide short- and long-term benefits.

    Cervicogenic headache is where pain is referred from the top of the neck.
    24K-Production/Shutterstock

    Can physio help with migraine?

    Migraine is a neurological disorder whereby the brain has difficulty processing sensory input.

    This can cause episodic attacks of moderate to severe headache, as well as:

    • sensitivity to light and noise
    • nausea and
    • intolerance to physical exertion.

    There are many triggers. Everyone’s are different and identifying yours is crucial to self-management of migraine. Medication can also help, so seeing a GP is the first step if you suspect you have migraine.

    About 70-80% of people with migraine also have neck pain, commonly just before or at the onset of a migraine attack. This can make people think their neck pain is triggering the migraine.

    While this may be true in some people, our research has shown many people with migraine have nothing wrong with their neck despite having neck pain.

    In those cases, neck pain is part of migraine and can be a warning (but not a cause or trigger) of an imminent migraine attack. It can signal patients need to take steps to prevent the attack.

    Migraine is a neurological disorder whereby the brain has difficulty processing sensory input.
    Srdjan Randjelovic/Shutterstock

    On the other hand, if the person has musculoskeletal neck disorder, physiotherapy neck treatments may help improve their migraine. Musculoskeletal neck disorder is what physiotherapists call typical neck pain caused by, for instance, a sports injury or sleeping in a weird way.

    You may have heard of the Watson manual therapy technique being used to treat migraine. It involves applying manual pressure to the upper cervical spine and neck area.

    There are currently no peer-reviewed studies looking at how effective this technique is for migraine.

    However, recent studies investigating a combination of manual therapy, neck exercises and education tailored to the individual’s circumstances show some small effects in improving the number of migraine attacks and the disabling effects of headache.

    Manual therapy and neck exercises can also give short-term pain relief.

    However, in some cases the neck can become very sensitive and easily aggravated in migraine. That means inappropriate assessment or treatment could end up triggering a migraine.

    Physiotherapy can help with migraine but you first need a comprehensive and skilled physical assessment of the neck by an experienced physiotherapist. It’s crucial to identify if a musculoskeletal neck disorder is present and, if so, which type of neck treatment is needed.

    It is also important people with migraine understand how their migraine is triggered, what lifestyle factors contribute to it and when to take the appropriate medications to help manage their migraines.

    A trained physiotherapist can provide some of this information and help patients make sense of their condition and recommend the patient see their GP for medication, when appropriate.

    What about tension headaches?

    Tension type headache is the most common type of headache, characterised by a feeling of “tightness” or “band-like” pain around the head.

    Nausea and sensitivity to light and noise are not usually present with this type of headache.

    Like migraine, tension type headache is often associated with neck pain and also has different aggravating factors, not all of which are due to the neck.

    Tension type headache is often associated with neck pain.
    staras/Shutterstock

    Again, a detailed assessment by a trained physiotherapist is needed to identify if the neck is involved and what type of neck treatment is best.

    There is some evidence a combination of manual therapy and exercise can reduce tension type headache.

    Physiotherapists can also provide education and advice on aggravating factors and self management.

    Seeking help

    There are many types and causes of headache. If you suffer frequent headaches or have a new or unusual headache, ask a doctor to investigate.

    There is good evidence physiotherapy treatment will improve cervicogenic headache and emerging evidence it might help migraine and tension type headache (alongside usual medical care).

    If you are wondering if you have cervicogenic headache or if you have bothersome neck pain associated with headache, ask your doctor to refer you to a skilled physiotherapist trained in headache treatment. A careful assessment can determine if physiotherapy treatment will help.

    Zhiqi Liang received funding from the Australian Physiotherapy Association and the Physiotherapy Research Foundation. She is affiliated with the Australian College of Physiotherapists and the Australian Physiotherapy Association.

    Julia Treleaven and Lucy Thomas do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can you treat headaches with physiotherapy? Here’s what the research says – https://theconversation.com/can-you-treat-headaches-with-physiotherapy-heres-what-the-research-says-256581

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ joins call for Israel to allow full resumption of aid to Gaza

    New Zealand has joined 22 other countries and the European Union in calling for Israel to allow a full resumption of aid into Gaza immediately.

    The partners also said Israel must enable the United Nations and humanitarian organisations to work independently and impartially “to save lives, reduce suffering, and maintain dignity.”

    Israel imposed a blockade on humanitarian aid on March 2.

    The joint statement said food, medicines and essential supplies were exhausted and the population faced starvation.

    Israel recently proposed private companies take over handing out aid in Gaza’s south, a solution backed by the United States but criticised by the United Nations. Israel claimed aid was being stolen by Hamas, which Hamas denied.

    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters said yesterday New Zealand wanted the conflict finished “a long, long time ago”, and the situation was getting worse.

    “We believe the excuse that Israel’s got has long since evaporated away, given the suffering that’s going on. Many countries share our view — that’s why overnight we put out the statement,” he said.

    Call for ‘desperately needed’ aid
    The joint statement said Gaza’s people must receive the aid they desperately needed.

    “As humanitarian donors, we have two straightforward messages for the government of Israel — allow a full resumption of aid into Gaza immediately, and enable the UN and humanitarian organisations to work independently and impartially to save lives, reduce suffering and maintain dignity.”

    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters . . . “We believe the excuse that Israel’s got has long since evaporated.” Image: RNZ/ Reece Baker

    The statement acknowledged a “limited restart” of aid, but said the UN and humanitarian partners did not support Israel’s proposed new model for delivering aid into Gaza.

    “The UN has raised concerns that the proposed model cannot deliver aid effectively, at the speed and scale required. It places beneficiaries and aid workers at risk, undermines the role and independence of the UN and our trusted partners, and links humanitarian aid to political and military objectives.”

    The statement also called for an immediate return to a ceasefire, and work towards the implementation of a two-state solution.

    The partners reiterated a call for Hamas to immediately release all remaining hostages and allow humanitarian assistance to be distributed “without interference”.

    The statement was signed by the foreign ministers of Australia, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the UK.

    It was also signed by the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, the EU Commissioner for Equality, Preparedness and Crisis Management and the EU Commissioner for the Mediterranean.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Can cats drink milk? Despite the stereotypes, it’s actually a bad idea

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julia Henning, PhD Candidate in Feline Behaviour, School of Animal and Veterinary Science, University of Adelaide

    Shawn Rain/Unsplash

    Cats have a long history with humans, going back more than 9,000 years. Attracted to human settlements by the rodents that plagued (sometimes literally) our ancestors, cats ingratiated themselves as useful mousers and slowly domesticated themselves.

    Farmers began to employ them as pest controllers. It was through this arrangement that cats and milk first became acquainted.

    Before the commercialisation of pet food, cats were mostly fed scraps from the family table. Not much was known about their nutritional needs. In his 1877 book on cats, Scottish doctor Gordon Stables insisted cats need two bowls – “one for water and the other for milk” – and suggested porridge and milk as an excellent feline breakfast.

    From these origins, cats and milk became further embedded in the collective zeitgeist through depictions of milk-loving cats in art, books, movies and cartoons. There’s even the classic trope of the scruffy street cat being rescued from the rain to enjoy a saucer of milk from a kindly stranger.

    While it’s not surprising that cats and milk have persisted as an unquestioned combination, research now tells us cats shouldn’t be drinking milk at all.

    The cultural connection between cats and milk goes far back in history, as shown in this 1921 photo.
    University Historic Photograph Collection, Archives & Special Collections, Colorado State University.

    The vast majority of cats are lactose intolerant

    Like all mammals, cats begin life drinking milk from their mother. But past kittenhood, milk is a completely unnecessary part of a cat’s diet.

    After weaning (around 6–12 weeks of age), kittens stop producing the enzyme lactase, required to digest lactose in milk. For the vast majority of cats, this means they are lactose intolerant.

    However, just like in humans, the level of intolerance varies for each individual based on how much of the enzyme their body naturally produces.

    Don’t rush to give your kitten milk, though. Just because kittens can digest lactose doesn’t mean they should be drinking cow’s milk. Cats are much smaller animals than cows and, fittingly, the amount of lactose in the milk of mother cats is much lower than in cow’s milk. It’s best to let them drink from their mother or to get them a kitten-appropriate cat formula.

    Lactose intolerance isn’t the only reason not to give your cats milk. Though rare, cats can also develop an allergy to milk or dairy.

    Milk from mother cats is different to cow’s milk, which is not appropriate for kittens to drink.
    Hadifa Art/Shutterstock

    What happens to cats who drink milk?

    Lactose is a type of sugar. When it can’t be broken down to be absorbed into the bloodstream, lactose travels through the intestines to the colon where the bacteria inside the body ferment it.

    This fermentation breaks lactose down into acids and gases which cause unpleasant symptoms, including the passing of excessive gas, bloating, constipation, abdominal pain and occasionally nausea and vomiting. In cats, the most common symptom observed is diarrhoea.

    Chronic or persistent diarrhoea can cause further complications such as dehydration, electrolyte imbalance and malnutrition. In some cases, it can even be life threatening.

    Cats who consume milk or dairy regularly as part of their diet are at increased risk of these health complications.

    When farm mousers are ‘paid’ in milk, their lactose intolerance can cause diarrhoea and even serious health complications.
    Aleksandr Lupin/Shutterstock

    If milk is so bad for cats, why do they love it?

    We often like things that are bad for us. But to answer this question, we first have to remember cow’s milk is intended for feeding and growing a baby cow.

    To achieve this feat, it contains an assortment of proteins and fats that are highly palatable, especially to cats. Cats need high levels of protein and fat for optimal health and daily functioning.

    Cow’s milk, in particular, is also high in casein, a protein that is broken down by the body into alpha-casozepine. In some studies, it’s been associated with a calming effect in cats. While this wouldn’t initially make a cat want to drink milk, it may create a comforting association with milk over time.

    If you want to treat your cat, give them species appropriate foods, not cow’s milk or food meant for humans.
    Hamza Yaich/Pexels

    Can I give milk sometimes as a treat? What about milk alternatives?

    The short answer is: no.

    Dairy is not a natural part of cats’ diet. While they may like the taste, milk is likely to cause your furry friend discomfort and health issues, so it’s best to avoid entirely.

    And if you’re thinking your cat is one of the lucky few that isn’t lactose intolerant, think again. Cats are very good at hiding discomfort because, in the wild, showing weakness would make them a target for predators.

    If you absolutely must, opt for lactose-free milk or milk formulated specifically for cats, and keep it as a very occasional treat.

    While it won’t upset their stomachs in the same way as regular cow’s milk, it still won’t offer your cat any nutritional benefit.

    As for milk alternatives like oat, soy or almond milk? Any unusual additions to your cat’s diet are likely to cause digestive upset, so it’s best to avoid these as well.

    The bottom line? Don’t give your cat milk. They don’t need it, they probably can’t digest it and it’s likely to cause more pain than it’s worth.

    Julia Henning does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can cats drink milk? Despite the stereotypes, it’s actually a bad idea – https://theconversation.com/can-cats-drink-milk-despite-the-stereotypes-its-actually-a-bad-idea-255227

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Does drawing on memory help us solve problems? Our experiment gave some surprising answers

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anne Macaskill, Senior Lecturer in Experimental Psychology, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    Getty Images

    Conventional wisdom suggests memories of past experiences can help us navigate problems in the present.

    For example, if a friend told you they were having a disagreement with their partner, you might ask what they did last time they argued. If your child was anxious about a presentation, you might boost their confidence by saying “remember that great speech you did last year”.

    Indeed, memory researchers have found people report a key reason they remember the past is to solve problems in the present. But does this prove that drawing on experience is a good problem-solving strategy?

    How much insight do we have about whether these memories support us to solve current problems? And, objectively, does this strategy help people identify more and better solutions?

    To get more conclusive evidence, we ran two experimental studies (one with 170 students, one with 340 students). In each, we instructed some people to recall previous times they were successful (we call this the “memory group”). We instructed others to recall neutral personal memories such as what they had for breakfast that morning (we call this the “control group”).

    We then asked both groups to come up with as many solutions as they could to everyday problems, such as resolving a disagreement, or working in a team to complete a project.

    We expected the memory group to generate more solutions to these problems than the control group. But surprisingly, they did not. Both groups generated the same number of solutions.

    Does this mean drawing on the past is an ineffective problem-solving strategy, or perhaps only effective for some people?

    For some people, drawing on memories of positive past experiences can help with a task they find difficult, such as public speaking.
    Getty Images

    Unpacking the link between memory and problem solving

    To dig further, we asked all participants what was going on in their heads while they were coming up with solutions. Across both groups, some participants said they drew on past experiences we did not specifically instruct them to recall.

    This result hinted that recalling memories might be something some people are in the habit of doing anyway, and a possible reason why our memory instructions didn’t seem to make a difference.

    We therefore wondered if our instructions were only helpful for participants who do not typically use their memory to solve problems. Indeed, in a followup study with 237 student participants, we found our instruction to recall past successful experiences was useful, but only for a subset of people.

    Specifically, this applied to participants who reported they don’t typically use their memory of personal experiences for problem solving. These participants came up with more solutions than anyone else.

    We reasoned this was because they already had other good problem-solving strategies (for example, thinking about facts relevant to the problem or thinking laterally and creatively) and we had merely given them an additional strategy (recalling their past).

    However, we found no relationship between how often participants typically used their memory to solve problems, and how many solutions they came up with.

    Memories can help with difficult tasks

    What do our findings tell us? Recalling a memory may be helpful for generating solutions to problems, but it is not the only or best way to solve problems.

    However, recalling a memory might help more or be more important in other problem-solving steps, such as defining a problem or implementing a solution once you’ve thought of it.

    For instance, some experimental evidence suggests intentionally remembering past experiences could be helpful for doing hard things, such as public speaking, exercising or overcoming a fear of heights.

    One study found people who remembered a positive public speaking experience before giving a speech were less anxious, and actually did a better job. Another study found people who recalled a positive experience with exercise increased their exercise over a week, even when the researchers took into account their prior attitudes, motivation and exercise activity.

    A specific positive and related memory may therefore be helpful to following through on your intention to perform a specific behaviour. Conversely, as we have found, recalling a memory might not be the best or only approach for coming up with multiple solutions to a problem.

    People also report that they recall their experiences to shape their identity and to develop and maintain relationships through reminiscing. Memory of personal experiences therefore has the potential to influence many facets of our life.

    Overall, our research highlights the importance of context – when, how and who is drawing on memories of past experiences to solve problems – when we consider conventional wisdom about memory.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Does drawing on memory help us solve problems? Our experiment gave some surprising answers – https://theconversation.com/does-drawing-on-memory-help-us-solve-problems-our-experiment-gave-some-surprising-answers-255105

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 15 years ago, I urged the AFL to launch a mental health round. Now it’s time for action

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pat McGorry, Professor of Psychiatry, The University of Melbourne

    The death of former AFL footballer Adam Selwood, less than four months after the death by suicide of his twin Troy, is an unfathomable tragedy for the Selwood family.

    The devastating news has sent shockwaves through the AFL and wider Australian communities.

    The shock and grief have prompted many people, from current and former AFL players to fans and media commentators, to seek actions and solutions.

    The immediate priority is to ensure the Selwood family and anyone who is currently struggling with mental ill-health and may be adversely impacted by this latest tragedy, is supported and offered hope for the future.

    In addition, the AFL community and mental health advocates have implored the AFL to introduce a mental health round, similar to its other themed rounds such as its ANZAC commemorations or the current Sir Doug Nicholls round, which celebrates Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander players, cultures and communities.

    Better late than never?

    I first raised the idea of a mental health round for the AFL in 2010 with then-CEO Andrew Demetriou after I was fortunate enough to be named Australian of the Year.

    This allowed me gain access to prominent leaders to champion the fight against the alarming rise of mental ill-health in Australia – especially young people.

    The idea never materialised, but I strongly believe a mental health round can play a significant role in reimagining the national conversation on mental health.

    However, there are pros and cons to this, and it is critical it is approached in a strategic fashion that goes beyond just awareness and anti-stigma campaigns.

    It must instead deliver real and meaningful reform to reduce the impact of mental ill-health and preventable deaths from suicide.

    The problem we face

    Mental ill-health affects all Australians directly or indirectly – suicide is the number one cause of death for people under 40.

    More than 3,000 families every year lose a loved one to suicide and these are largely preventable deaths.

    This growing public health crisis creates a huge burden that is social, emotional and economic.

    In 2021, the Productivity Commission estimated the cost to Australia of our neglect of mental ill-health and suicide: around A$200 billion per year.

    Up to 75% of all mental disorders begin before the age of 25.

    Suicide is the biggest killer of young people, and two in five young people now experience mental ill-health every year, a 50% increase since 2007.

    Athletes sit within the peak age of risk for mental ill-health, and elite sport can come with unique pressures that heightens risk.

    While the AFL and most clubs have engaged strongly around this issue and have sought to provide support for current and former players, the wider mental health crisis extends far beyond the boundaries of the sporting arena.

    Now the AFL has a unique opportunity to drive significant change.

    Benefits and risks of a mental health round

    A mental health round would build on key recommendations from The Lancet Psychiatry’s 2024 commission on youth mental health.

    Produced by a global consortium of world-leading psychiatrists, psychologists, academics and young people, it identified the need for “high-profile societal champions” to help sustain “high-quality media attention, which is crucial to any political campaign”.

    It highlights societal champions (such as sporting bodies and figures), alongside the unified voice of health and research experts “play a key role in ensuring a message is received by a wider audience and appeals to the public in order to gain support from policy makers”.

    This approach must be underpinned by powerful storytelling, which emphasises:

    Positive stories of effective care and innovation, combined with credible first-person accounts from service users and their families and carers.

    The AFL is uniquely positioned to deliver this by uniting athletes, fans, media platforms and grassroots programs.

    It has taken on this role before with positive results, improving awareness and raising money for our ANZACs, as well as the fight against motor neurone disease (MND) – a relatively rare condition compared to mental illness and suicide.

    However, it is imperative any such approach moves beyond the well-meaning but tired awareness campaigns that merely encourage people to “check on your mates”, “speak up if you’re struggling” or suggest the solution is simply a matter of improving “resilience”.

    That can be code for “just pull yourself together” or “toughen up” – language that is all too familiar in footy circles.

    Some elements of the sporting media may need to look in the mirror here.

    Anti-stigma campaigns are similarly ineffective in isolation.

    A key objective of a mental health round should also be to engage and empower grassroots Australian communities to demand investment the mental health crisis urgently requires.

    There is not much use urging people to seek help if expert mental health care is inaccessible or of poor quality. We can rely on world-class cancer care when we need it, but not so mental health care.

    In addition to rapid and free access to high quality care, we also need a major boost to scientific research to create new treatments and fuel prevention.

    The AFL is already a case study in how to galvanise medical research in another neglected area via its partnership with the FightMND campaign, an incredible initiative that has raised both public engagement and precious funds for scientific discovery.

    A step forward?

    To honour the tragic deaths of Adam and Troy Selwood and the tens of thousands of families who have been are devastated by suicide in recent years, Australia needs to do something about it.

    The AFL is uniquely positioned to take a decisive leadership role on this issue.

    But a mental health round must ensure public mental health experts are central to its design and delivery, so it drives not just conversation but real, lasting change.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

    Patrick McGorry receives funding from the NHRMC, NIH, Wellcome Trust and other research funders fro scientific research in mental health and suicide prevention. I am a member of the AFL’s mental health advisory committee.

    – ref. 15 years ago, I urged the AFL to launch a mental health round. Now it’s time for action – https://theconversation.com/15-years-ago-i-urged-the-afl-to-launch-a-mental-health-round-now-its-time-for-action-256995

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Boredom gets a bad rap. But science says it can actually be good for us

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Kennedy, Youth Mental Health Researcher, University of the Sunshine Coast

    We have all experienced boredom – that feeling of waning interest or decreased mental stimulation. Eventually we lose focus, we disengage. Time seems to pass slowly, and we may even start to feel restless. Whether it be watching a movie that disappoints, a child complaining that “there’s nothing to do”, or an adult zoning out during a meeting – boredom is a universal experience.

    Generally defined as difficulty maintaining attention or interest in a current activity, boredom is commonly viewed as a negative state that we should try to avoid or prevent ourselves from experiencing.

    But what if there’s another way to view boredom, as a positive state? Could learning to embrace boredom be of benefit?

    The brain on boredom

    The brain network is a system of interconnected regions that work together to support different functions. We can liken it to a city where suburbs (brain regions) are connected by roads (neural pathways), all working together to allow information to travel efficiently.

    When we experience boredom – say, while watching a movie – our brain engages specific networks. The attention network prioritises relevant stimuli while filtering out distractions and is active when we commence the movie.

    However, as our attention wanes, activity in the attention network decreases, reflecting our diminished ability to maintain focus on the unengaging content. Likewise, decreased activity occurs in the frontoparietal or executive control network due to the struggle to maintain engagement with the unengaging movie.

    Simultaneously, the default mode network activates, shifting our attention toward internal thoughts and self-reflection. This is a core function of the default mode network, referred to as introspection, and suggestive of a strategy for coping with boredom.

    This complex interplay of networks involves several key brain regions “working together” during the state of boredom. The insula is a key hub for sensory and emotional processing. This region shows increased activity when detecting internal body signals – such as thoughts of boredom – indicating the movie is no longer engaging. This is often referred to as “interoception”.

    The amygdala can be likened to an internal alarm system. It processes emotional information and plays a role in forming emotional memories. During boredom, this region processes associated negative emotions, and the ventral medial prefrontal cortex motivates us to seek alternative stimulating activities.

    The default mode network in our brains (highlighted here) shifts our attention towards internal thoughts and self-reflection when we’re bored.
    John Graner/Wikipedia

    Boredom versus overstimulation

    We live in a society that subjects us to information overload and high stress. Relatedly, many of us have adopted a fast-paced lifestyle, constantly scheduling ourselves to keep busy. As adults we juggle work and family. If we have kids, the habit of filling the day with schooling and after-school activities allows us to work longer hours.

    In between these activities, if we have time to pause, we may be on our screens constantly organising, updating, or scrolling to simply stay occupied. As a result, adults inadvertently model the need to be constantly “on” to younger generations.

    This constant stimulation can be costly – particularly for our nervous system. Our overscheduling can feed into overstimulation of the nervous system. The sympathetic nervous system which manages our fight-or-flight response is designed to deal with times of stress.

    However, when we are constantly stressed by taking in new information and juggling different activities, the sympathetic nervous system can stay activated for too long, due to the cumulative effects of repeated exposure to different stressors. This is sometimes referred to as “allostatic overload”. It is when our nervous system becomes overwhelmed, keeping us in a heightened state of arousal, which can increase our risk of anxiety.

    Eliminating the state of boredom deprives us of a simple and natural way to reset our sympathetic nervous system.

    Could boredom be good for us?

    In small doses, boredom is the necessary counterbalance to the overstimulated world in which we live. It can offer unique benefits for our nervous system and our mental health. This is opposed to long periods of boredom where increased default mode network activity may be associated with depression.

    There are several benefits of giving ourselves permission to be occasionally bored:

    • improvements in creativity, allowing us to build “flow” in our thoughts
    • develops independence in thinking and encourages finding other interests rather than relying on constant external input
    • supports self-esteem and emotional regulation, because unstructured times can help us sit with our feelings which are important for managing anxiety
    • encourages periods without device use and breaks the loop of instant gratification that contributes to compulsive device use
    • rebalances the nervous system and reduces sensory input to help calm anxiety.

    Embrace the pause

    Anxiety levels are on the rise worldwide, especially among our youth. Many factors contribute to this trend. We are constantly “on”, striving to ensure we are scheduling for every moment. But in doing so, we are potentially depriving our brains and bodies of the downtime they need to reset and recharge.

    We need to embrace the pause. It is a space where creativity can prosper, emotions can be regulated, and the nervous system can reset.

    Daniel Hermens receives funding from the Commonwealth government’s Prioritising Mental Health Initiative and the Queensland Mental Health Commission.

    Michelle Kennedy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Boredom gets a bad rap. But science says it can actually be good for us – https://theconversation.com/boredom-gets-a-bad-rap-but-science-says-it-can-actually-be-good-for-us-255767

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Speight’s Fiji coup had more to do with power, greed than iTaukei rights, says Chaudhry

    Today marks the 25th anniversary of the May 19, 2000, coup led by renegade businessman George Speight.

    The deposed Prime Minister, Mahendra Chaudhry, says Speight’s motive had less to do with indigenous rights and a lot more to do with power, greed, and access to the millions likely to accrue from Fiji’s mahogany plantation.

    On this day 25 years ago, the elected government was held hostage at the barrel of the gun, the Parliament complex started filling up with rebels supporting the takeover, Suva City and other areas in Fiji were looted and burnt, and innocent people were attacked just because of their race.

    Chaudhry said indigenous emotions were “deliberately ignited to beat up support for the treasonous actions of the terrorists”.

    He said the coup threw the nation into chaos from which it had not fully recovered even to this day.

    Chaudhry said using George Speight as a frontman, the “real perpetrators” of the coup, assisted by a group of armed rebels from the Republic of Fiji Military Forces (RFMF), held Chaudhry and members of his government hostage for 56 days as they plundered, looted and terrorised the Indo-Fijian community in various parts of the country.

    The Fiji Labour Party leader said that, as with current Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka, who led the first two coups in 1987, so with Speight in May 2000, that the given reason for the treason and the mayhem that followed was to “protect the rights and interests of the indigenous community”.

    Chaudhry said today that it was widely acknowledged that the rights of the indigenous community was not endangered either in 1987 or in 2000.

    He added that they were simply used to pursue personal and political agendas.

    Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka with former prime minister Mahendra Chaudhry . . . apology accepted during the Girmit Day Thanksgiving and National Reconciliation church service at the Vodafone Arena in Suva. Image: Jonacani Lalakobau/The Fiji Times

    The FLP leader said those who benefitted were the elite in Fijian society, not ordinary people.

    Chaudhry said this was obvious from current statistics which showed that currently the iTaukei surveyed made up 75 percent of those living in poverty.

    He said poverty reports in the early 1990s showed practically a balance in the number of Fijians and Indo-Fijians living in poverty.

    Prisoner George Speight speaking to inmates in 2011 . . . he and his rogue gunmen seized then Prime Minister Mahendra Chaudhry and his government hostage in a 2000 crisis that lasted for 56 days. Image: Fijivillage News/YouTube screenshot

    The former prime minister says it was obvious that the coups had done nothing to improve the quality of life of the ordinary indigenous iTaukei.

    Instead, he said the coups had had a devastating impact on the entire socio-economic fabric of Fiji’s society, putting the nation decades behind in terms of development.

    Chaudhry said the sorry state of Fiji today — “the suffering of our people and continued high rate of poverty, deteriorating health and education services, the failing infrastructure and weakened state of our economy” — were all indicators of how post-coup governments had failed to deliver on the expectations of the people.

    He said: “It is time for us to rise above discredited notions of racism and fundamentalism and embrace progressive, liberal thinking.”

    Chaudhry added that leaders needed to be judged on their vision and performance and not on their colour and creed.

    Republished with permission from FijiVillage News.

    2000 attempted coup leader George Speight with a bodyguard and supporters during the siege drama in May 2000. Image: Fijivillage News

    Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The federal government wants to boost productivity. Science can help

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deanna D’Alessandro, Professor & Director, Net Zero Institute, University of Sydney

    Daniel Sone/National Cancer Institute

    In the wake of Labor’s resounding victory in Australia’s federal election earlier this month, there has been much talk about flailing productivity in Australia.

    In fact, last week, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers made clear that the priority for the government’s second term will be to boost productivity. This crucial measure of how much we produce for every hour we work rises a little every year. But growth has slowed over the past decade.

    As part of this, the federal government has tasked the Productivity Commission with a new strategy to enhance productivity. A draft report is expected in July or August, with implementable ideas across five key pillars.

    So far, however, one part of the solution to the productivity slump has received little public attention: boosting support for scientific research.

    Productivity relies on science

    Science can help boost national economic productivity in many ways.

    For one, scientific innovation and creativity can create high value goods and services for both Australian and international markets. And translating this research into real-world economic benefits builds a workforce that combines science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) skills with business skills.

    This is important because it fosters technological innovation and supports evidence-based decision making. It also empowers individuals to solve complex problems in the face of technological change. This ultimately drives productivity growth.

    Australian scientific solutions will also need to be at the fore if the Future Made in Australia agenda is to realise its goal of stronger public-private sector relationships and a more resilient economy.

    The so-called fourth industrial revolution, or Industry 4.0, refers to the rapid digitisation and automation of manufacturing industry technologies and processes. It not only relies on science to realise the enormous opportunities of digital technologies, but also to ensure they are harnessed sustainably.

    For example, science can help address the serious concerns relating to the huge energy and resource cost of artificial intelligence.

    Recognising the role of science

    The government seems to recognise the role scientific research and innovation can play in boosting productivity.

    For example, in 2024 it fully launched the Australian Economic Accelerator, which was announced by the former Coalition government two years earlier. This scheme is designed to foster and build productivity by supporting university research in Australia that has the potential for commercialisation.

    Australia’s new national science and research priorities also highlight the crucial role of science in addressing Australia’s complex energy and environmental challenges.

    But there are still some fundamental problems in the world of science that are limiting productivity growth in Australia.

    A widening gap

    One of these problems relates to research and development – or R&D – funding.

    Australia’s investment in R&D as a percentage of gross domestic product has been declining for many years. It has dropped from 2.25% in 2008–9 to 1.68% in 2021–22. At the same time, other advanced economies have increased their R&D spending, leading to a widening gap. The OECD average is 2.7%.

    Multiple leading bodies have called out this decline as a threat to Australia’s long-term productivity. That’s because R&D spending in science fosters innovation and creativity – two major factors in productivity growth.

    Another problem is the declining support for fundamental science which isn’t done with any application in mind, but can be equally important in the long term to enhancing productivity.

    Consider the discovery of penicillin. Or of the double helix structure of DNA. These are just some scientific breakthroughs that were not initially focused on practical applications, but ultimately proved transformative.

    This kind of scientific research requires sustained support, allowing knowledge to grow. We have seen the results of this in action and its impact even more recently. Scientists had worked on mRNA vaccines for decades before the vaccine breakthrough achieved during the COVID pandemic.

    A nation at a crossroads

    Australia is at a crossroads. Simply increasing funding in the short term through measures such as Australia’s Economic Accelerator is, at best, a band-aid solution. What’s needed to properly tackle the problem is thoughtful reform and long-term, strategic planning to secure the nation’s prosperity for decades to come.

    There is some hope for this, thanks to the government’s comprehensive review of the R&D sector. This review aims to align R&D with national priorities, maximise the value of existing investments, harness public-private partnerships, and strengthen collaboration between research and industry.

    The review is engaging a wide range of stakeholders and is designed to deliver long-term transformation.

    Addressing productivity in these areas could yield substantial benefits. It could build Australia’s industrial and economic self-sufficiency. And it could broaden our field of view around productivity and how it can be boosted through long-term investment in science and R&D reforms.

    By implementing robust R&D reforms and driving productivity across all sectors, Australia can set itself up for sustained growth and international influence.

    Deanna D’Alessandro receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Kate Harrison Brennan was an Advisor to former Prime Minister Julia Gillard and is a member of the Australian Labor Party.

    – ref. The federal government wants to boost productivity. Science can help – https://theconversation.com/the-federal-government-wants-to-boost-productivity-science-can-help-256567

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: From the Liver King to ultramarathons, fitness influencers are glorifying extreme masculinity where ‘pain is the point’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samuel Cornell, PhD Candidate in Public Health & Community Medicine, School of Population Health, UNSW Sydney

    Netflix/Untold: The Liver King

    A new Netflix documentary about a shirtless supplement salesman who claimed to be “natural” and was exposed as a fraud might seem like a punchline.

    But Untold: The Liver King is more than just a character study of a well-known fitness influencer; it’s a case study of performative masculinity in the world of social media.

    Brian Johnson, better known as the Liver King, built a brand on extreme workouts, eating raw organ meat, and evangelising about masculinity. He preached “ancestral living” and radical self-control, all while secretly using steroids.

    And his rapid rise to popularity reveals how social media rewards the spectacle of hypermasculinity – especially when it leans into extreme behaviours.

    Extreme self-discipline, extreme exercise, extreme eating and extreme “wellness” have all become forms of public performance on social media.

    From influencers pushing steroids or “wellness” lifestyles, to the growing popularity of ultramarathons, a new model of masculinity is going viral: control your body, grit through pain, workout hard, and make sure everyone hears about it.

    The rise of ‘discipline content’

    Social media apps and websites such as TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram, are flooded with content that frames pain and extreme physical effort as markers of masculine worth.

    One analysis of male fitness YouTubers found they established authority and discipline through a mix of visible physical strength and affiliations with commercial fitness brands. In some cases, the influencers explicitly listed their personal records or showcased their physique post-training as proof of their “masculinity” and discipline.



    Read more:
    Why banning gym selfies could do us all a lot of good

    Influencers also often frame extreme leanness and muscularity as indicators of moral virtue and discipline, even when achieving it has taken a negative physical or mental toll on them. The look of discipline has become more valuable than the outcome of it.

    Posts are often wrapped in the language of “resilience”, “discipline” and militaristic rhetoric. Men are told to “go to war” in the gym, to “stay hard”, and to generally treat life like a battlefield.

    What’s being sold isn’t stoicism: it’s pseudo-stoicism – a term researchers have coined to describe emotional suppression masquerading as strength and discipline.

    Pain is the point

    Strava’s 2023 Year in Sport report found Gen Z athletes are 31% less likely to exercise for health reasons compared to older generations. Instead, they are more likely to train with a focus on athletic performance – that is, to push their physical limits, improve metrics such as speed or distance, and outperform others.

    The same report shows a surge in extreme endurance activity. Compared to 2023 data, uploads (activities shared with others) of gravel bike rides grew 55%, trail runs grew 16%, and ultramarathon-style workouts grew by 9%.

    Take Nedd Brockmann, who ran across Australia in 2022, and last year ran 1,600 kilometres in ten days to raise money for charity – all while sharing his self-imposed physical torture.

    Or take the countless fitness content creators pushing themselves through punishing routines for the camera.

    These cases reflect a deeper shift of fitness being turned into spectacle, wherein suffering becomes a sign of legitimacy, and pain is “proof” that you’re serious.

    Such extreme content, which is often visually striking, can also be pushed by social media algorithms. Research shows how social media platforms systematically boost content that is intense, emotionally charged, and morally loaded.



    Read more:
    Get big or die trying: social media is driving men’s use of steroids. Here’s how to mitigate the risks

    In other words, posts that provoke a reaction are more likely to get promoted. And
    content relating to “wellness” extremism is designed to provoke, as it is visceral, performative, and packed with motivational and self-help anecdotes.

    Why this matters

    This is a potential public health issue.

    Social media platforms amplify and monetise these performances, often pushing the most extreme content to the top. And influencers make money, above the money made from directly these platforms, from selling supplements, gear and coaching plans. At the same time, they act in more and more extreme ways to get further amplified by algorithms.

    The risks of this dynamic, for both the viewers and creators, are very real. They range from hormone damage, to mental and physical decline, to injury, and even death.

    But there is also a deeper ideological harm, as young men are fed a narrow and punishing idea of what it means to be a man. They are taught pain equals purpose, and that if you’re not suffering, you’re not trying.

    Where to from here?

    Public health agencies need to reckon with this form of digital hypermasculinity.

    Extreme fitness influencers aren’t just poor role models; they’re the product of a system that profits from insecurity and spectacle. The goal shouldn’t be to ban or censor this content. But we do need to challenge its dominance, and offer alternatives.

    That means engaging young men in offline spaces, such as the Tomorrow Man project, where they have an outlet for community and relationship building.

    It means creating counter-narratives that don’t mock, but model, healthier versions of ambition and masculinity. For instance, the Movember campaign’s podcast Dad in Progress explores the various challenges and experiences faced by new dads.

    It also means holding platforms accountable for the way they amplify extreme content.

    In the absence of healthier narratives, self-flagellation is the only thing young men will have to aspire to.

    Samuel Cornell has received funding from Meta Platforms, Inc. His research is supported by a University of New South Wales Sydney, University Postgraduate Award.

    – ref. From the Liver King to ultramarathons, fitness influencers are glorifying extreme masculinity where ‘pain is the point’ – https://theconversation.com/from-the-liver-king-to-ultramarathons-fitness-influencers-are-glorifying-extreme-masculinity-where-pain-is-the-point-256817

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NZ Budget 2025: anything less than a 5% increase in health funding amounts to merely standing still

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Tenbensel, Professor of Health Policy, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Health Minister Simeon Brown. Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

    Minister of Health Simeon Brown claimed earlier this year that health funding in New Zealand has never been higher and that suggestions of underfunding are “fake news”.

    On the bare statistics, Brown isn’t wrong. The allocation to Vote Health has indeed increased from NZ$18.2 billion in 2018-19 to $29.6 billion in the 2024-25 budget.

    Yet for many working in the publicly-funded health system things have never seemed so bad, with daily stories of under-staffing and increasing levels of stress.

    So, how much should the government be spending on health? Any answer needs to factor in the broader context of the health system, and where we sit historically and comparatively.

    The health system is subject to significant cost pressures, few of which are unique to New Zealand. People are generally living longer, but more of that longer life span is spent in ill health.

    At the same time, New Zealand’s population profile has changed significantly over the past 40 years. There is a lower proportion of working-age people paying income tax to support those who are older.

    Technological advances, on balance, drive up health expenditure – more is possible, so more is expected. And compared with other parts of the economy, health services are labour-intensive.

    Around two thirds of health expenditure is on staff, and health workforce shortages are a global problem (again, driven by demographic change). All these factors mean health costs rise faster than inflation.

    Taking all of this into account, a recent health economics analysis calculated that to continue to deliver the same level of service in the United Kingdom (which has very similar health system characteristics to New Zealand), public spending on health would need to increase by 2.8% in real terms (above inflation) each year.

    Then we need to factor in population growth, which has recently been between 1.5% and 2% per year in New Zealand. In this context, a 4-5% increase in Vote Health amounts to merely standing still.

    People are living longer, but more of that longer life is spent in ill health.
    Getty Images

    Long-term deterioration

    We also need to put our current situation in historical and international context.

    The most appropriate indicator for international comparison is “publicly mandated health expenditure” (PMHE) as a percentage of GDP, as this excludes private expenditure (private health insurance and “out of pocket” payments).

    Total health spending typically constitutes 10-12% of GDP in high-income countries, and PMHE is typically around 8%. In the 2010s, however, New Zealand’s PMHE dropped from 7.8% (2012) to 7% of GDP (2017). Meanwhile, Australia, Canada and the UK all remained at or above 8% during that time.

    This represents a significant long-term deterioration which heightened the stress on our health system before and after the COVID pandemic.

    Even when our PMHE as a percentage of GDP is comparable to Australia and other countries, our per-capita health expenditure is significantly less because our GDP per-capita is lower.

    The most significant budget boost in recent years was in 2022. But this was largely soaked up by pay rises for health professionals that resulted from underfunding during the 2010s.

    The current government finds itself in a very tight spot. This is partly because of international economic conditions and demographic trends, but also due to self-imposed constraints.

    Even in such a large budget, there’ll be little room for major initiatives in health unless savings are found from existing areas. That is rarely feasible in health. As is true in most years, there could be up to three big-ticket items. If so, what should they be?

    What Budget 2025 should include

    First, the government needs to boost capital expenditure in health. A recent analysis by the UK Institute for Government shows that public service productivity, including in the health sector, fell sharply during and after the COVID pandemic. The New Zealand treasury reported similar productivity declines.

    The UK report concluded these declines were primarily due to physical capacity constraints – clinical staff can’t be more productive when there is not enough physical space and diagnostic equipment.

    Earlier this month, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced a $400 million increase in the annual capital allowance across all of government. Let’s see how much of the total $4 billion capital allowance is channelled into health.

    A second priority should be primary healthcare. Here, the health minister has already announced a range of initiatives, headlined by $285 million of additional performance-based funding over three years. This is a welcome commitment, and the most significant boost in primary care funding since the mid-2000s.

    However, it’s unlikely this will redress erosion over the past 20 years of primary care “capitation” funding (the amount a GP practice receives per enrolled patient).

    This funding formula also needs to be modernised to better reflect where needs are highest and account for rising acuity and complexity of conditions in primary healthcare. This would relieve some pressures on hospital emergency departments and medical wards.

    Third, investment to retain and attract health workers across the whole sector is vital. Given the demographic and epidemiological changes, proactively preparing for a mid-21st-century health workforce will require funding to support emerging models of health services, particularly in primary and community settings, including programmes such as Access and Choice and comprehensive primary and community care teams.

    These priorities, and any government commitment to them in Budget 2025, must be understood against the backdrop of sustained historical underfunding.

    The government is likely to claim health is a big winner in Budget 2025. Unless increases are significantly greater than 5%, such a claim will bring little respite to the health sector.

    In any case, the race that counts is a marathon, not a sprint. New Zealand is well back in the field, struggling not to lose further ground.

    Tim Tenbensel receives funding from the New Zealand Health Research Council.

    – ref. NZ Budget 2025: anything less than a 5% increase in health funding amounts to merely standing still – https://theconversation.com/nz-budget-2025-anything-less-than-a-5-increase-in-health-funding-amounts-to-merely-standing-still-255593

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘No pain, no gain’: why some primary students are following intense study routines

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina Ho, Associate professor in Social and Political Sciences, University of Technology Sydney

    MNStudio/ Shutterstock

    Every year, thousands of New South Wales students sit a test to determine places for highly sought-after selective high schools. These are academically selective public schools often associated with high Year 12 scores.

    While there has long been a level of expectation around selective school entrance, the most recent round of testing has shone a fresh light on the pressures some young people are experiencing.

    Media reports have described some students studying for 18 months to prepare for the selective school test, with multiple sessions of tutoring each week.

    Earlier this month, police were called to control crowds at two testing centres as parents and students from one session overlapped with another. This is also the first year the tests have been done online and there were technical difficulties as students tried to complete exams.

    One exam invigilator told The Sydney Morning Herald about the stress they witnessed among students.

    We were dealing with kids who were freaking out and totally traumatised by what was going on. You could not make up a worse nightmare than what we went through that day.

    It’s not surprising children were upset. The pressure to perform well on test day is enormous. As my previous research has found, some families believe entry into a selective school will secure their child’s future.

    As my new research with colleagues suggests, this sees some families place huge pressure on students to study and prepare for academic tests in primary school.

    Not just a NSW thing

    Most (albeit not all) of Australia’s selective schools are in NSW.

    But there is pressure around other tests in the primary years. There are similar levels of competition for lucrative private school scholarships around Australia, which children sit as early as Year 3. Many of these are determined by centralised tests.

    Tutoring companies also offer programs for primary students preparing for NAPLAN tests in Year 3 and Year 5, as well as the “opportunity class” test in NSW (for an academically selective stream for Year 5 and 6).

    Our research

    In ongoing, as yet unpublished research on education cultures among migrant communities in Sydney, colleagues and I are focusing on 38 families with children in upper primary school.

    In 2022 and 2023, we interviewed students, parents and teachers at six schools in high and low income areas of Sydney. All schools included large numbers of Asian migrants, allowing us to compare different groups’ approaches to education.

    While not necessarily representative of all Asian migrant families, or all families with school-aged children in general, we found intensive preparation for the selective test was common in this group, especially among those students already enrolled in an opportunity class.

    The tutoring routine

    Many students preparing for the selective test told us they attended private tutoring three or more days per week, in addition to completing home based study. Some had begun this routine up to 12 months before to the test.

    One mother, whose son attended tutoring every day, at three different centres, on top of two hours of daily homework, told us,

    That’s how we prepare for selective […] You need to be methodical […] no pain, no gain.

    Other parents explained they resorted to private tutoring because schools did not teach what was needed to succeed in the selective tests.

    Not only do children spend afternoons, evenings and weekends in tutoring centres, they are also often giving up most if not all recreational, sporting and other extracurricular activities, narrowing their focus to acing the test.

    Families also postpone holidays, outings and other potential distractions. Many of our student participants aiming for a selective school told us they never socialised with their friends outside of school time.

    Sometimes they even neglected their school work so as to focus on the selective test. One teacher told us many of her students were absent from school in the week prior to the test, to ramp up their preparation.

    How does this impact students?

    This culture of extreme study and competitive schooling raises profound questions about the implications for student wellbeing. Some students spoke about their fatigue. As one student said:

    I work up to late at night. So sometimes I feel drowsy and I yawn a bit and have water in my eyes.

    Their teachers also expressed concern about insufficient sleep and heightened stress caused by the pressure to get into a selective school. They described students’ tears if they were not successful when the results came out.

    One teacher said he had a “blanket rule” of not talking about the tests in the classroom, because his students were so preoccupied with ensuring they were doing enough preparation.

    Other teachers reflected on students’ fear of taking risks because of the culture of perfectionism associated with scoring and ranking through tests.

    Some students stop doing other activites to prepare for the selective schools test.
    Maria Sbytova/ Shutterstock

    What does the research say?

    International research shows an association between high-stakes testing in primary years and issues with children’s mental health and academic confidence. There is also a negative association with students’ achievement in maths and literacy. That is, students who experience pressured exams were more likely to experience anxiety and depression, and not do as well in core subjects as those who did not experience this pressure.

    Some parents in our study expressed concern for their child’s wellbeing. But others saw stress a positive sign of engagement and commitment, and necessary for securing the all important place in a selective school.

    Given many are recent migrants, without established networks in Australia, and fearful of racial discrimination against their children, they believe education to be the most crucial foundation for future success.

    However, we need more research on the impacts of these parental aspirations and anxieties on the next generation. And a broader discussion about the benefits of selecting some students – who may have benefited from extensive and expensive private tutoring – to go to separate, high-performing government schools.

    Megan Watkins, Greg Noble and Alexandra Wong all contributed to the research on migrant families mentioned in this article, as part of a larger Australian Research Council-funded project.

    Christina Ho received funding from the Australian Research Council to conduct this research.

    – ref. ‘No pain, no gain’: why some primary students are following intense study routines – https://theconversation.com/no-pain-no-gain-why-some-primary-students-are-following-intense-study-routines-256815

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Surviving swamps on South Australia’s parched Fleurieu Peninsula are a lifeline to wildlife – and farmers

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Auricht, Visiting Research Fellow in Natural Resources Management, University of Adelaide

    Yundi Nature Conservancy, CC BY-NC-ND

    South Australia is famously the driest state on the driest inhabited continent.

    But even for South Australia, the current drought is extreme. Rainfall has been the lowest on record across large areas.

    When drought strikes and water sources dry up, life becomes hard for wildlife. In these conditions, perennial water sources become enormously valuable.

    Dotted across the drought-stricken Fleurieu Peninsula south of Adelaide are more than 850 swampy wetlands. When the landscape dries out, these swamps act as refuges. Animals, birds, insects and reptiles come from far and wide, drawn by permanent spring-fed water, good habitat, diverse plant species and cooler, more humid micro-climates. These swamps are vital habitat for the critically endangered Mount Lofty Ranges southern emu-wren.

    Drainage channels were cut through many of these swamps in the early days of settlement, in an effort to turn them into pasture. The Fleurieu swamps are now considered an endangered ecological community. More than 90% of the remaining swamps are located on private property.

    Keeping these swamps intact and restoring dried out wetlands comes with real benefits for farmers. Birds and insects seek refuge in the swamps, but feed on pest species on nearby farmland.

    As drought tightens its grip on South Australia, these swamps will only become more important to wildlife. Restoring these swamps by bringing back the water and restoring plants and pollinators could go some way to help.

    Important for nature – and humans

    The swamps of the Fleurieu are some of the most diverse and productive habitats on Earth. Many species of plants, birds, frogs, fish, insects, mammals and reptiles rely on them to survive.

    Before colonisation, swamps and wetlands covered large areas of the Fleurieu Peninsula. Three First Nations language groups lived in these areas on the central and eastern peninsula. The importance of these wetlands is recorded in the shared story of Tjilbruki, a Kaurna ancestor whose tears at the death of his nephew gave rise to six freshwater springs.

    Over the last 200 years, most of this region has been cleared for pasture, crops and vineyards. Only 4% of the swamps are conserved. They are now listed as a critically endangered ecological community. These swamps are still declining due to threats such as more human settlement, land clearance, water extraction and invasive species such as blackberries.

    Many were drained to make way for agriculture. We don’t fully know how many remain, as many are not well captured in current maps.

    But we know these wetlands are vital, not just for nature but for farmers too. Farmers would miss them if they were gone.

    We can see this most clearly during droughts. As the land gets drier and ephemeral water sources evaporate, ibises, eastern great egrets, white-faced herons and masked lapwings move into these swamps, seeking water. During the days, though, they spread out and feed on pasture pests such as grasshoppers and cockchafer beetle grubs.

    Similarly, these wetlands act as a haven for important insect pollinators and predators. Hoverflies and native bees help farmers by pollinating pasture legumes such as clover, while predators keep down the numbers of pest species.

    As adults, parasitic wasps rely on the nectar from swamp plants such as woolly teatree. But they lay their eggs on common pasture pests such as caterpillars and grubs. When their larvae hatch, they eat these pests. Carnivorous insects such as ladybirds and assassin bugs eat other insects which can trouble farmers.

    Ibises and other bird species base themselves in the swamps during drought, but fan out to eat insects which can trouble farmers.
    Yundi Nature Conservancy, CC BY-NC-ND

    Restoration is possible

    Swamps don’t have a great reputation. Throughout human history, they have been seen as sources of foul air and a haven for insects and disease. A common response was to dig channels to drain them.

    We now know much more about how important swamps and other wetlands for the natural world – and for humans. Wetlands naturally store water and carbon, tame floods and offer refuges during drought. Correcting these historic mistakes will take time.

    Wetlands are home to many species of plants, insects and animals.
    Yundi Nature Conservancy, CC BY-NC-ND

    Peatlands like these store huge volumes of carbon in their waterlogged soils. Our research estimated the carbon storage of a peat swamp at Yundi at more than 2,500 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent per hectare. The depth of carbon-rich organic peat was up to three metres in places. By contrast, a healthy woodland stores around 650 tonnes per hectare.

    This natural carbon sink will remain as long as the peat remains moist and annual increments from plant growth and decay add to the stock.

    When an agricultural drain is cut through a swamp, water gradually leaches out of the peat profile. Over time, enough water leaves to dry out the peat, beginning with the surface layer. This means long-stored carbon and methane can be released back to the atmosphere.

    Conserving remaining peatlands and restoring those already drained is essential if the climate goals of the Paris Agreement are to be achieved, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization.

    On the Fleurieu Peninsula, there’s huge potential to return water to the soils and expand these once-thriving wetlands.

    The good news? Community groups and farmers have already embarked on several restoration projects. Around 50 farmers in the region have formed the Fleurieu Swamp Restoration Network. To date, in cooperation with Yundi Nature Conservancy, 25 swamp restoration plans have been developed and 15 are under way. If successful, these will restore more than 100 hectares of swamp.

    Christopher Auricht is a director of environmental consultancy Auricht Projects Pty Ltd. He receives funding from both state and federal governments for wetland related consulting and research.

    – ref. Surviving swamps on South Australia’s parched Fleurieu Peninsula are a lifeline to wildlife – and farmers – https://theconversation.com/surviving-swamps-on-south-australias-parched-fleurieu-peninsula-are-a-lifeline-to-wildlife-and-farmers-256238

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Fish driving cars and chimps doing maths: what teaching animals ‘irrelevant’ skills reveals about our own minds

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Scarlett Howard, Research Fellow, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University

    VixtorPhoto / Shutterstock

    Did you know goldfish can learn to drive cars? Have you heard bumblebees can learn to pull on a string? Would you believe some primates can perform calculations with Arabic numerals?

    These tasks seem completely irrelevant to these animals in their natural environment, so why are researchers interested in them?

    As someone who studies the intelligence of insects, much of my own research has been labelled as “ecologically irrelevant”.

    However, as I have argued in Trends in Cognitive Sciences, there are plenty of reasons to study this kind of animal intelligence.

    Finding relevance in irrelevance

    The study of animal intelligence often seeks to form a better understanding of the animal’s ecology. However, there are also many studies that aim to push the limits of animal cognition beyond what we would expect in their everyday life.

    This honeybee has been trained to find sugar water where there are an even number of shapes.

    Ecologically irrelevant research can help us understand the limits of animal intelligence and develop bio-inspired technology. It can also help us explore behavioural responses to environmental change, and advance our understanding of the evolution of intelligence.

    Understanding how animals respond to ecologically irrelevant tasks sheds light on how our own intelligence has evolved. We frequently use comparisons between humans and non-human primates to understand whether a cognitive capacity has evolved in modern humans, or if we observe similar abilities in other primates and animals.

    For example, children as young as 24 months old can find a hidden object in a room when its location is pointed out to them in a photograph. This ability is known as representational insight.

    Some chimpanzees can also pass this test. Do these results mean a chimpanzee has the same level of intelligence as a two-year-old child?

    Furthermore, this test may allow us to estimate when representational insight evolved. It may have been before humans and chimpanzees split into different lineages.

    Researchers trained goldfish to steer a tank on wheels.

    Imitating nature, comparing species

    Biologically inspired (bio-inspired) solutions to modern computing problems use technology based on biology. Some bio-inspired technologies can cope well with uncertainty by using brain-like computations to process and solve real-world problems. Many animals are considered models for bio-inspired technologies based on their vision, behaviour and movement.

    For example, the flight mechanics of dragonflies have been studied to build micro aerial vehicles. Since bio-inspired technology will undoubtedly be used in unnatural situations, it is useful to know how animals would respond in these same scenarios to build more accurate technology.

    Comparing the behaviour and intelligence of different species can pose a huge challenge to scientists. To enable accurate comparisons we need to have a task of equal difficulty for both species.

    If we use a task that animals perform regularly in their natural environments, we run the risk that one species may have an advantage from performing the task more frequently. However, if we use a task that neither animal is likely to ever need to perform, we can “level the playing field” for an accurate comparison.

    Animals must often adapt to new and unfamiliar situations. Environmental changes such as urbanisation, climate change, habitat loss and invasive species introductions cause animals to encounter new challenges that may have previously been ecologically irrelevant.

    A puzzle box may be seem irrelevant to many animals. However, cockatoos in Australia have learned how to open rubbish bins to forage. The cockatoos have then adapted to solve new puzzles as humans attempt to make bins harder to open.

    This “innovation arms race” between humans and cockatoos shows how an initially ecologically irrelevant task may become relevant to an animal.

    Does a true test of ecologically irrelevant intelligence exist?

    One major question is whether we have been able to create a truly ecologically irrelevant task for animals to complete.

    For example, bees have been trained to recognise images of human faces. This task may appear ecologically irrelevant to a bee.

    However, to the bee, an image of a human face may actually represent an unfamiliar but rewarding flower, particularly when the correct option is paired with a reward of sugar water, which imitates a flower’s nectar. Is this task relevant or irrelevant to a bee? The answer is: it depends.

    Many experiments provide food rewards. Therefore, animals may interpret these experiments as a foraging task, thus making even the most complex and arbitrary tasks during tests of intelligence still somewhat ecologically relevant to the animal. Other rewards for animals participating in experiments include shelter, social interactions, and play.

    While the task itself may appear ecologically irrelevant, the reward may be highly relevant to animals looking for food, mating opportunities, safety, or fun. This leads us to question if any task we give animals is completely bereft of ecological relevance.

    Scarlett Howard currently has funding from the Australian Research Council and the Hermon Slade Foundation.

    – ref. Fish driving cars and chimps doing maths: what teaching animals ‘irrelevant’ skills reveals about our own minds – https://theconversation.com/fish-driving-cars-and-chimps-doing-maths-what-teaching-animals-irrelevant-skills-reveals-about-our-own-minds-253938

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Are independent vets really better? The real issue isn’t necessarily who owns them

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rachel Williams, Reader in Human Resource Management, Cardiff University

    maxbelchenko/Shutterstock

    Taking your pet to the vet might feel different these days, and there’s a reason for that. About 60% of UK practices are now owned by just six big companies, raising concerns about cost, care and competition.

    But ownership is only part of the picture. After four years researching life inside vet practices, I’ve found that what really shapes the experience – for vets and pet owners alike – is how each clinic is managed.

    Although it is the head offices of these large companies that determine business strategies, it is local managers who implement the policies. The way they choose to do this can significantly affect the experiences of vets and their clients.

    Until 1999, UK vet practices had to be owned by qualified vets. Most were small, local and privately run.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    But that changed when the Veterinary Surgeons Act was amended to allow wider ownership. This opened the door for venture capitalists, healthcare companies and multinational corporations, like Mars and Nestlé, to expand into the veterinary sector. They quickly bought up small vet practices and soon dominated the market.

    This domination has led to concerns of an excessive focus on profit rather than affordable veterinary care, leading to high costs for owners and stressful performance targets for vets. The Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) has been investigating the veterinary sector since September 2023 because of this.

    Veterinary practices are either owned by individuals, joint ventures between corporations and vets, or wholly owned by large corporations. Those in the first category tend to be known colloquially as “independents” and the rest as “corporates”.

    Much of the narrative in the media has concentrated on the dichotomy between independents and corporates. There’s a suggestion that corporates charge excessive fees and pressurise vets to sell additional services.

    But my research, which included 97 interviews with 25 vets, suggests that the profession is far more nuanced than this. I spoke with a vet who described the most stressful, target-driven environment not in a corporate, but in an independent practice.

    In contrast, several vets working for corporates had remained in the same practice since they graduated. They experienced supportive working environments, high standards of care and no pressure to meet targets.

    Another vet had switched between corporate and independent practices and believed that it was easier to provide affordable care in the independent practices due to lower prices and greater autonomy. But they left one independent practice as they were uncomfortable with the standard of care offered. “Independent good, corporate bad” is not always the case.

    shutterstock.
    Vaillery/Shutterstock

    Management matters

    I found that practice management shapes the experiences of vets and clients far more than ownership. Even within the same corporate, there are significant differences in how managers implement policies and support their teams.

    Whereas in one practice a manager may turn a blind eye when a vet supports a client by missing a minor item from a bill, in another they may be reminded to bill correctly. Vets described staying in practices where they felt valued and supported, where they could provide appropriate care for their patients and where they could keep learning.

    High professional standards and compassionate management cultures were important. But other vets described crying at the end of the day when the relentless workload and lack of support meant they could not care for their patients as they wished. They spoke out and nothing changed until eventually they left.

    Vets may not agree with all elements of the corporate business strategy, but they are more likely to remain with a practice due to the actions of local managers than due to decisions made at the corporate headquarters.



    Read more:
    Rising vet fees leave pet owners facing tough choices – and vets often bear the brunt

    What about pet owners? A survey by the CMA as part of their investigation found that most people choose a vet based on location and quality of care, not cost.

    However, the research also found that many owners were not aware that their vet practices were corporates. Only two of the six corporates use distinct corporate names and branding for their practices, with the others often only mentioning corporate ownership in their small print. This lack of transparency may lead to owners choosing a practice because they incorrectly believe it is independent, a situation that concerns the CMA.

    There are real challenges facing the veterinary profession, from rising costs to staff burnout and workforce shortages. But pitting independents against corporates risks missing the point. The conversation needs to be shifted away from who owns the practice and towards how they’re run on the ground. What matters is whether vets are supported to provide the kind of care they trained for, and whether managers are equipped to lead teams with compassion, fairness and professionalism.

    After all, that’s what benefits everyone, whether it be the vets, the clients or the animals.

    Rachel Williams does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Are independent vets really better? The real issue isn’t necessarily who owns them – https://theconversation.com/are-independent-vets-really-better-the-real-issue-isnt-necessarily-who-owns-them-256035

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Overshooting 1.5°C: even temporary warming above globally agreed temperature limit could have permanent consequences

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Dodds, Professor of Energy Systems, UCL

    Earth’s surface temperature has been 1.5°C hotter than the pre-industrial average for 21 of the last 22 months.

    The 2015 Paris agreement committed countries to keeping the global temperature increase “well below 2°C”, which is widely interpreted as an average of 1.5°C over a 30-year period. The Paris agreement has not yet failed, but recent high temperatures show how close the Earth is to crossing this critical threshold.

    Climate scientists have, using computer simulations, modelled pathways for halting climate change at internationally agreed limits. However, in recent years, many of the pathways that have been published involve exceeding 1.5°C for a few decades and removing enough greenhouse gas from the atmosphere to return Earth’s average temperature below the threshold again. Scientists call this “a temporary overshoot”.

    If human activities were to raise the global average temperature 1.6°C above the pre-industrial average, for example, then CO₂ removal, using methods ranging from habitat restoration to mechanically capturing CO₂ from the air, would be required to return warming to below 1.5°C by 2100.

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    Do we really understand the consequences of “temporarily” overshooting 1.5°C? And would it even be possible to lower temperatures again?

    Faith that a temporary overshoot will be safe and practicable has justified a deliberate strategy of delaying emission cuts in the short term, some scientists warn. The dangers posed by remaining above the 1.5°C limit for a period of time have received little attention by researchers like me, who study climate change.

    To learn more, the UK government commissioned me and a team of 36 other scientists to examine the possible impacts.

    How nature will be affected

    We examined a “delayed action” scenario, in which greenhouse gas emissions remain similar for the next 15 years due to continued fossil fuel burning but then fall rapidly over a period of 20 years.

    We projected that this would cause the rise in Earth’s temperature to peak at 1.9°C in 2060, before falling to 1.5°C in 2100 as greenhouse gases are removed from the atmosphere. We compared this scenario with a baseline scenario in which the global temperature does not exceed 1.5°C of warming this century.

    Our Earth system model suggested that Arctic temperatures would be up to 4°C higher in 2060 compared to the baseline scenario. Arctic Sea ice loss would be much higher. Even after the global average temperature was returned to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, in 2100, the Arctic would remain around 1.5°C warmer compared to the baseline scenario. This suggests there are long-term and potentially irreversible consequences for the climate in overshooting 1.5°C.

    Temperature increases caused by overshooting 1.5°C are primarily felt in the Arctic and on land.
    Selena Zhang, Maria Russo, Luke Abraham and Alex Archibald.

    As global warming approaches 2°C, warm-water corals, Arctic permafrost, Barents Sea ice and mountain glaciers could reach tipping points at which substantial and irreversible changes occur. Some scientists have concluded that the west Antarctic ice sheet may have already started melting irreversibly.

    Our modelling showed that the risk of catastrophic wildfires is substantially higher during a temporary overshoot that culminates in 1.9°C of warming, particularly in regions already vulnerable to wildfires. Fires in California in early 2025 are an example of what is possible when the global temperature is higher.

    Our analysis showed that the risk of species going extinct at 2°C of warming is double that at 1.5°C. Insects are most at risk because they are less able to move between regions in response to the changing climate than larger mammals and birds.

    The impacts on society

    Only armed conflict is considered by experts to have a greater impact on society than extreme weather. Forecasting how extreme weather will be affected by climate change is challenging. Scientists expect more intense storms, floods and droughts, but not necessarily in places that already regularly suffer these extremes.

    In some places, moderate floods may reduce in size while larger, more extreme events occur more often and cause more damage. We are confident that the sea level would rise faster in a temporary overshoot scenario, and further increase the risk of flooding. We also expect more extreme floods and droughts, and for them to cause more damage to water and sanitation systems.

    Floods and droughts will affect food production too. We found that impact studies have probably underestimated the crop damage that increases in extreme weather and water scarcity in key production areas during a temporary overshoot would cause.

    We know that heatwaves become more frequent and intense as temperatures increase. More scarce food and water would increase the health risks of heat exposure beyond 1.5°C. It is particularly difficult to estimate the overall impact of overshooting this temperature limit when several impacts reinforce each other in this way.

    In fact, most alarming of all is how uncertain much of our knowledge is.

    For example, we have little confidence in estimates of how climate change will affect the economy. Some academics use models to predict how crops and other economic assets will be affected by climate change; others infer what will happen by projecting real-word economic losses to date into future warming scenarios. For 3°C of warming, estimates of the annual impact on GDP using models range from -5% to +3% each year, but up to -55% using the latter approach.

    We have not managed to reconcile the differences between these methods. The highest estimates account for changes in extreme weather due to climate change, which are particularly difficult to determine.

    We carried out an economic analysis using estimates of climate damage from both models and observed climate-related losses. We found that temporarily overshooting 1.5°C would reduce global GDP compared with not overshooting it, even if economic damages were lower than we expect. The economic consequences for the global economy could be profound.

    So, what can we say for certain? First, that temporarily overshooting 1.5°C would be more costly to society and to the natural world than not overshooting it. Second, our projections are relatively conservative. It is likely that impacts would be worse, and possibly much worse, than we estimate.

    Fundamentally, every increment of global temperature rise will worsen impacts on us and the rest of the natural world. We should aim to minimise global warming as much as possible, rather than focus on a particular target.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

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    Paul Dodds has received funding from the UK government through the Climate Services for a Net Zero World (CS-N0W) programme. While the UK government set the research questions for the study, it was carried out independently by scientists from nine organisations. Dodds has also received funding for other research projects from a range of organisations, including UK Research and Innovation organisations (Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and the Natural Environment Research Council); the IEA Energy Technology Systems Analysis Program (ETSAP); and private organisations (National Grid; Fuels Industry UK; Johnson Matthey; Cadent). A team at UCL led by Paul Dodds jointly develops the UK TIMES energy system model in a partnership with the UK government. This model was not used in this study.

    – ref. Overshooting 1.5°C: even temporary warming above globally agreed temperature limit could have permanent consequences – https://theconversation.com/overshooting-1-5-c-even-temporary-warming-above-globally-agreed-temperature-limit-could-have-permanent-consequences-255523

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Batteries that absorb carbon emissions move a step closer to reality – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daniel Commandeur, Surrey Future Fellow, School of Chemistry & Chemical Engineering, University of Surrey

    Future power. Sweetie Khatun

    What if there were a battery that could release energy while trapping carbon dioxide? This isn’t science fiction; it’s the promise of lithium-carbon dioxide (Li-CO₂) batteries, which are currently a hot research topic.

    Lithium-carbon dioxide (Li-CO₂) batteries could be a two-in-one solution to the current problems of storing renewable energy and taking carbon emissions out of the air. They absorb carbon dioxide and convert it into a white powder called lithium carbonate while discharging energy.

    These batteries could have profound implications for cutting emissions from vehicles and industry – and might even enable long-duration missions on Mars, where the atmosphere is 95% CO₂.

    To make these batteries commercially viable, researchers have mainly been wrestling with problems related to recharging them. Now, our team at the University of Surrey has come up with a promising way forward. So how close are these “CO₂-breathing” batteries to becoming a practical reality?

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    Like many great scientific breakthroughs, Li-CO₂ batteries were a happy accident. Slightly over a decade ago, a US-French team of researchers were trying to address problems with lithium air batteries, another frontier energy-storage technology. Whereas today’s lithium-ion batteries generate power by moving and storing lithium ions within electrodes, lithium air batteries work by creating a chemical reaction between lithium and oxygen.

    The problem has been the “air” part, since even the tiny (0.04%) volume of CO₂ found in air is enough to disrupt this careful chemistry, producing unwanted lithium carbonate (Li₂CO₃). As many battery scientists will tell you, the presence of Li₂CO₃ can also be a real pain in regular lithium-ion batteries, causing unhelpful side reactions and electrical resistance.

    Nonetheless the scientists noticed something interesting about this CO₂ contamination: it improved the battery’s amount of charge. From this point on, work began on intentionally adding CO₂ gas to batteries to take advantage of this, and the lithium-CO₂ battery was born.

    How it works

    Their great potential relates to the chemical reaction at the positive side of the battery, where small holes are cut in the casing to allow CO₂ gas in. There it dissolves in the liquid electrolyte (which allows the charge to move between the two electrodes) and reacts with lithium that has already been dissolved there. During this reaction, it’s believed that four electrons are exchanged between lithium ions and carbon dioxide.

    This electron transfer determines the theoretical charge that can be stored in the battery. In a normal lithium-ion battery, the positive electrode exchanges just one electron per reaction (in lithium air batteries, it’s two to four electrons). The greater exchange of electrons in the lithium-carbon dioxide battery, combined with the high voltage of the reaction, explains their potential to greatly outperform today’s lithium-ion batteries.

    In terms of the benefits to carbon emissions, by our rough calculations, 1kg of catalyst could absorb around 18.5kg of CO₂. Since a car driving 100 miles emits around 18kg-20kg of CO₂, that means such a battery could potentially offset a day’s drive.

    However, the technology has a few issues. The batteries don’t last very long. Commercial lithium-ion packs routinely survive 1,000–10,000 charging cycles; most LiCO₂ prototypes fade after fewer than 100.

    They’re also difficult to recharge. This requires breaking down the lithium carbonate to release lithium and CO₂, which can be energy intensive. This energy requirement is a little like a hill that must be cycled up before the reaction can coast, and is known as overpotential.

    You can reduce this requirement by printing the right catalyst material on the porous positive electrode. Yet these catalysts are typically expensive and rare noble metals, such as ruthenium and platinum, which is a significant barrier to commercial viability.

    Our team has found an alternative catalyst, caesium phosphomolybdate, which is far cheaper and easy to manufacture at room temperature. This material made the batteries stable for 107 cycles, while also storing 2.5 times as much charge as a lithium-ion. And we significantly reduced the energy cost involved in breaking down lithium carbonate, for an overpotential of 0.67 volts, which is only about double what would be necessary in a commercial product.

    Our research team is now working to further reduce the cost of this technology by developing a catalyst that replaces caesium, since it’s the phosphomolybdate that is key. This could make the system more economically viable and scalable for widespread deployment.

    We also plan to study how the battery charges and discharges in real time. This will provide a clearer understanding of the internal mechanisms at work, helping to optimise performance and durability.

    Lithium-carbon dioxide batteries could help humans to colonise Mars.
    Forelse Stock

    A major focus of upcoming tests will be to evaluate how the battery performs under different CO₂ pressures. So far, the system has only been tested under idealised conditions (1 bar). If it can work at 0.1 bar of pressure, it will be feasible for car exhausts and gas boiler flues, meaning you could capture CO₂ while you drive or heat your home. Demonstrating that this works will be an important confirmation of commercial viability, albeit we would expect the battery’s charge capacity to reduce at this pressure.

    If the batteries work at 0.006 bar, the pressure on the Martian atmosphere, they could power anything from an exploration rover to a colony. At 0.0004 bar, Earth’s ambient air pressure, they could capture CO₂ from our atmosphere and store power anywhere. In all cases, the key question will be how it affects the battery’s charge capacity.

    Meanwhile, to improve the battery’s number of recharge cycles, we need to address the fact that the electrolyte dries out. We’re currently investigating solutions, which probably involve developing casings that only CO₂ can move into. As for reducing the energy required for the catalyst to work, it’s likely to require optimising the battery’s geometry to maximise the reaction rate – and to introduce a flow of CO₂, comparable to how fuel cells work (typically by feeding in hydrogen and oxygen).

    If this continued work can push the battery’s cycle life above 1,000 cycles, cut overpotential below 0.3 V, and replace scarce elements entirely, commercial Li-CO₂ packs could become reality. Our experiments will determine just how versatile and far-reaching the battery’s applications might be, from carbon capture on Earth to powering missions on Mars.

    Daniel Commandeur receives funding from the Royal Society. He is a member of the Royal Society of Chemistry and Christians in Science.

    Siddharth Gadkari receives funding from UKRI.

    Mahsa Masoudi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Batteries that absorb carbon emissions move a step closer to reality – new study – https://theconversation.com/batteries-that-absorb-carbon-emissions-move-a-step-closer-to-reality-new-study-256915

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What the strength of your grip can tell you about your overall health

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lawrence Hayes, Lecturer in Physiology, Lancaster University

    A strong grip can tell you many things about your health. XArtProduction/ Shutterstock

    Predicting your risk of a range of health outcomes – from type 2 diabetes to depression and even your longevity – is as simple as testing how tight your grip is.

    Grip strength refers to the power generated by the muscles of the hand and forearm to perform actions such as grabbing, squeezing an object or even shaking hands. This action involves a complex interplay between the various muscle groups located in the forearm, as well as the muscles within the hand itself.

    Grip strength is a very cheap, easy and non-invasive measure of muscle strength. This test has been used since the mid-1950s as a measure of overall health. Since then, the simple test has been firmly established as a reliable marker of various aspects of health – with some researchers even suggesting grip strength can be used to determine a person’s risk of everything from type 2 diabetes to depression.

    The standard method for measuring grip strength involves using a handheld dynanometer – an instrument which can measure a person’s power. This test is usually done while a person is sitting down. With their forearm bent at a 90-degree angle and wrist held in a neutral position, the person then squeezes the dynamometer as hard as they can – usually three separate times for one minute each.

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    The average of the highest readings from each hand, or sometimes just the dominant hand, is then recorded as the person’s grip strength. This can be measured in both kilograms or pounds. A grip strength value of under 29kg for men and 18kg for women is typically considered low. You can pick up a handgrip dynamometer for under £5 should you wish to test at home.

    Not only is grip strength a trusted indicator of overall health, it’s also strongly correlated with overall muscle strength and lean body mass across a person’s lifespan.

    Moreover, the stronger a person’s grip is, the more independent they will be in their daily life as they get older. This means they’ll be able to perform normal daily activities without assistance, such as rising from a chair and moving around the house.

    A substantial body of evidence also shows low grip strength is not only linked with greater susceptibility of a wide range of chronic diseases – including cancer and cardiovascular disease – but greater risk of early death due to these chronic disease, as well.

    Researchers have also observed links between low grip strength and greater risk of depression, anxiety and diabetes, to name a few.

    There’s also a significant association between grip strength and a person’s lifespan. In this study, people who died before the age of 79 were 2.5 times less likely than those who lived to be 100 to be in the top 33% for grip strength when they were middle aged.

    Grip strength is actually a proxy measure of overall muscle strength.
    Microgen/ Shutterstock

    However, in a 12-year prospective study published in 2022, the authors reported that baseline hand grip strength was the same in participants that died between the beginning and end of the study as in those who survived. But walking speed, speed of standing up from a chair and leg press strength were all worse in the people that died than in t that survived. This tells us is that there are better predictors of longevity than grip strength – such as total body muscle mass and leg strength.

    So why is it that such a simple measure can tell us about the risk of so many diseases, and ultimately death? The answer is that grip strength is a proxy measure of total muscle strength and size. This means that grip strength alone is not a cause of early mortality or disease, but is correlated with a cause of early mortality or disease (such as low muscle mass or muscle strength of the legs).

    Muscle mass is crucial for overall health. It plays an integral role in our metabolism. For example, muscle helps regulate blood sugar by removing glucose from circulation. This may explain why muscle mass protects against developing diabetes.

    Muscle also releases chemicals called myokines, which act upon other tissues and organs in the body – such as fat, our bones, the gut, liver and even our skin and brain. These myokines generally appear to have a protective effect on all of these tissues. This suggests muscle provides more than just the power we need to move our bodies.

    Improving your grip strength

    Unless you’re a rock climber or otherwise need a strong grip, there’s not much point working specifically on improving your grip strength. Although grip strength is linked with longevity and disease, this is because grip strength is an estimate of total body strength.

    As such, if you want to improve your health and strength, you should focus on training your leg strength. Leg strength is particularly important for health and fitness as it permits movement and helps you continue doing tasks independently in your daily life. Research also shows a correlation between leg strength and a person’s risk of chronic disease and their longevity.

    You can also add in other movements such as deadlifts, press-ups and pull-ups to build strength in your core, back and arms.

    Grip strength values serve as a very cheap and easy measure of a person’s overall health. It’s a cost-effective tool for measuring health but there are better ways to improve health with exercise.

    Lawrence Hayes has received funding from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), the Chief Scientist Office (CSO), the RS Macdonald Charitable Trust, and the Physiological Society.

    – ref. What the strength of your grip can tell you about your overall health – https://theconversation.com/what-the-strength-of-your-grip-can-tell-you-about-your-overall-health-256271

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Disaster authoritarianism: how autocratic regimes deal with earthquakes

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Nimesh Dhungana, Lecturer in Disasters and Global Health, Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute, University of Manchester

    An earthquake that struck south-east Asia in late March is thought to have killed more than 3,000 people in Myanmar, a country ruled by a military junta that has blocked humanitarian aid and continued waging war on quake-ravaged rebel territory.

    I am interested in how authoritarian regimes handle disasters and whether they disrupt or reinforce the ruling elite’s agenda. My research has led me to Tibet, which has endured Chinese occupation since 1951 and suffered a 7.1-magnitude earthquake in early January 2025.

    Beijing controls the access of independent media and international observers in Tibet. What we know about the disaster’s impact is largely based on initial reporting by the Chinese media, which has claimed the loss of 126 lives and damage to roads and communication networks.

    Tibetan sources have, however, contended that there has been much greater destruction, including to a number of monasteries and nunneries across the region.

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    Following the earthquake, the Chinese president, Xi Jinping, ordered “all-out search and rescue efforts” and pledged a rapid recovery. The constrained political environment has meant that Chinese relief agencies and the Chinese state-run media have controlled the narrative, praising Beijing’s capacity for “speed and compassion” in mobilising rescue efforts while using the disaster to highlight China’s record of “good governance and putting people and their lives first”.

    These accounts not only fail to report on the civic responses to disaster, such as mutual aid networks organised by Tibetans both locally and internationally, but they tend to overlook the immediate concerns of the affected communities.

    Survivors and activists using social media to challenge Chinese media narratives of purported success in rescue and relief efforts have faced censorship and outright hostility from the Chinese authorities. A previous study, looking at the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, found that communities that were considered a challenge to Chinese authority had their demands for relief suppressed.

    Firefighters shift rubble in Shigatse on January 7 2025.
    China News Service, CC BY-SA

    The earthquake has sparked further concerns among Tibetans that Chinese authorities will use the disaster to tighten their grip on the region.

    The situation is reminiscent of the April 2010 earthquake that struck Tibet’s Yushu region, claiming more than 2,600 lives and causing significant disruption to local life. The earthquake enabled China to push its vision of modernity and development in Tibet amid allegations of corruption in relief distribution and forced relocations.

    The aftermath revealed a divergence between the Chinese interpretation of recovery and what many Tibetans saw as essential for preserving and promoting their unique cultural identity.

    In their study of the Zimbabwean state’s response to tropical cyclone Idai in 2019, anthropologist Denboy Kudejira described this phenomenon as “disaster authoritarianism”: when an authoritarian regime exploits a disaster to reassert its power. Akin to China’s model, the Zimbabwean government restricted the involvement of non-state groups in longer-term recovery efforts.

    The relative lack of attention journalists and politicians abroad pay to Tibet makes this problem more acute. For instance, the wildfires in Los Angeles erupted at the same time as the earthquake, but garnered greater and more sustained media attention that mounted scrutiny on responsible agencies. By contrast, the Tibet earthquake quickly faded from the news.

    ‘Confrontational politics emerging’

    For Tibetans, challenging disaster authoritarianism is part of a delicate political struggle. Tibet’s spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, called the disaster “a natural phenomenon and not the result of human activities”, while urging Tibetans not to be “angry with the Chinese”. This appears to reflect his long-held wisdom that antagonising Chinese authorities will invite further hardship for communities enduring political marginalisation.

    Others are more sceptical. Some people inside Tibet have questioned the official number of casualties reported by Beijing and pushed Chinese authorities to clarify the scale of the tragedy.

    There are signs of more confrontational politics emerging. The International Campaign for Tibet, which lobbies for self-determination for Tibetans, has labelled the disaster “the silent earthquake” and accused Chinese authorities of censoring the true nature of suffering.

    Another rights group, the Tibetan Rights Collective, has highlighted China’s interventions in Tibet that have made the region more geologically unstable, including the building of hydropower dams and roads. Recent research shows that China’s push to build infrastructure in the region has increased the risk of disasters, such as floods and landslides, for downstream communities in south Asia.

    Research a colleague and I conducted during the pandemic showed that community groups can compensate for gaps in state-led disaster responses, and alert where help is needed. But this depends on public participation and grassroots organising that, in authoritarian contexts such as Tibet and Myanmar, is heavily restricted.

    The climate crisis is increasing the risk of disasters at the same time as there is widespread fear of increasing authoritarianism globally. We should all worry about how these two trends might interact.

    Nimesh Dhungana does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Disaster authoritarianism: how autocratic regimes deal with earthquakes – https://theconversation.com/disaster-authoritarianism-how-autocratic-regimes-deal-with-earthquakes-248188

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Do we see colour the same way? What scientists can learn from artists

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sasha Rakovich, Senior Lecturer in Physics, King’s College London

    TSViPhoto/Shutterstock

    As many people sit at the wheel of their car, they are certain they know what colour is. It’s the red traffic light in front of them, the garish yellow hatchback in the next lane, or the green verge banking to their right.

    Colour, as many people understand it, is the property of a thing. That light is green. The sky is blue. But scientifically, that’s not quite true. No one can experience the exact same colour as you do. Colour is a perceptual experience created by our brains.

    It’s the interaction between a material, light and the mind. The way a material absorbs and scatters light affects what reaches our eyes. And colour needs to be processed by the brain.

    The shape of objects and the context in which you encounter them can also shape the way you perceive colour. If you’ve ever picked a paint colour that looked perfect in the shop but turned into something entirely difference once on your walls, you’ve already encountered this phenomenon.

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    This notion of colour as experience was recently shown in a study by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, who used lasers to manipulate participants’ eyes into seeing a new colour – a blue-green they call olo.

    To achieve this, the scientists used lasers to activate specific photoreceptor cells in the retina that detect green wavelengths of light, called M cones. We also have S and L cones, types of photoreceptors that detect short blue, and longer red wavelengths of light respectively. Everyone has slight variations in the number and sensitivity of these cones, so we each experience colour a little differently.

    Outside the lab, the reflected light that comes into our eyes illuminates large areas of the retina, which stimulates multiple cone types. The wavelengths perceived by the M and L cones overlap by over 85%. This means that under natural conditions, the two are always activated together, but in varying degrees.

    By targeting just the M cones, the scientists at Berkeley have in essence created a pure colour. Olo doesn’t have context or material conditions. It will look the same to different people.

    But this isn’t the only example which shows the place of the brain in colour perception.

    The most common type of red-green colour blindness, deuteranomaly, occurs when the M and L cones overlap more than they should. This reduces people’s ability to distinguish between colours in that range, without affecting sharpness or brightness.

    Language may play a role in colour perception, influencing how easily or accurately we discriminate between colours, especially when languages differ in how they categorise or label colour distinctions. This highlights the gulf between an objective property and the processing of the brain.

    The difference between the subjective experience of colour and the fixed, physical means of producing it means that most artists’ search for “pure” paint will fail. British artist Stuart Semple recently claimed he’d recreated olo in paint form. He called the paint yolo. But when people look at it, M and L cones will be activated at the same time. A “pure” paint is still impossible.

    Semple’s Black 3.0, along with other ultra-black materials, is marketed as a “pure” black paint. It absorbs nearly all light, using a high concentration of light-absorbing pigments and a matte binder to minimise reflections. But instead of offering a pure colour, it removes colour altogether – delivering a universal experience of “black” by eliminating visual stimulus.

    Colour is never static.
    gkkhjn/Shutterstock

    In truth, artists have known colour is a matter of perception for quite some time. The modernist artist Mark Rothko was notoriously meticulous about how his work was displayed. Rothko insisted that his work be hung low, with as little white wall visible as possible, in dim light.

    He was shaping the experience of colour his work presented to the onlooker by controlling brightness, contrast and the surroundings. Rothko, like the scientists at Berkeley, recognised that colour is an interaction between material, light and observer. It is not just about manipulating what we don’t see, but about engineering what we do.

    I have been running a public engagement programme, Transcending the Invisible, which brings together scientists and artists to explore scientific ideas through art. What I’ve been struck by most is that scientists and artists

    – ref. Do we see colour the same way? What scientists can learn from artists – https://theconversation.com/do-we-see-colour-the-same-way-what-scientists-can-learn-from-artists-256142

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Is it better to shower in the morning or at night? Here’s what a microbiologist says

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Primrose Freestone, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Microbiology, University of Leicester

    Showering is an important part of an good hygiene routine. Valerii_k/ Shutterstock

    It’s a question that’s long been the cause of debate: is it better to shower in the morning or at night?

    Morning shower enthusiasts will say this is the obvious winner, as it helps you wake up and start the day fresh. Night shower loyalists, on the other hand, will argue it’s better to “wash the day away” and relax before bed.

    But what does the research actually say? As a microbiologist, I can tell you there actually is a clear answer to this question.

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    First off, it’s important to stress that showering is an integral part of any good hygiene routine — regardless of when you prefer to have one.

    Showering helps us remove dirt and oil from our skin, which can help prevent skin rashes and infections.

    Showering also removes sweat, which can quell body odour.

    Although many of us think that body odour is caused by sweat, it’s actually produced by bacteria that live on the surface of our skin. Fresh sweat is, in fact, odourless. But skin-dwelling bacteria – specifically staphylococci – use sweat as a direct nutrient source. When they break down the sweat, it releases a sulphur-containing compound called thioalcohols which is behind that pungent BO stench many of us are familiar with.

    Day or night?

    During the day, your body and hair inevitably collect pollutants and allergens (such as dust and pollen) alongside their usual accumulation of sweat and sebaceous oil. While some of these particles will be retained by your clothes, others will inevitably be transferred to your sheets and pillow cases.

    The sweat and oil from you skin will also support the growth of the bacteria that comprise your skin microbiome. These bacteria may then also be transferred from your body onto your sheets.

    Showering at night may remove some of the allergens, sweat and oil picked up during the day so less ends up on your bedsheets.

    However, even if you’ve freshly showered before bed, you will still sweat during the night – whatever the temperature is. Your skin microbes will then eat the nutrients in that sweat. This means that by the morning, you’ll have both deposited microbes onto your bed sheets and you’ll probably also wake up with some BO.

    A night shower can help rinse away the day’s dirt and grime, but you might not smell as fresh the next morning.
    leungchopan/ Shutterstock

    What particularly negates the cleaning benefits of a night shower is if your bedding is not regularly laundered. The odour causing microbes present in your bed sheets may be transferred while you sleep onto your clean body.

    Showering at night also does not stop your skin cells being shed. This means they can potentially become the food source of house dust mites, whose waste can be allergenic. If you don’t regularly wash your sheets, this could lead to a build-up of dead skin cell deposits which will feed more dust mites. The droppings from these dust mites can trigger allergies and exacerbate asthma.



    Read more:
    Your bed probably isn’t as clean as you think – a microbiologist explains

    Morning showers, on the other hand, can help remove dead skin cells as well as any sweat or bacteria you’ve picked up from your bed sheets during the night. This is especially important to do if your sheets weren’t freshly washed when you went to bed.

    A morning shower suggests your body will be cleaner of night-acquired skin microbes when putting on fresh clothes. You’ll also start the day with less sweat for odour-producing bacteria to feed on – which will probably help you smell fresher for longer during the day compared to someone who showered at night. As a microbiologist, I am a day shower advocate.

    Of course, everyone has their own shower preference. Whatever time you choose, remember that the effectiveness of your shower is influenced by many aspects of your personal hygiene regime – such as how frequently you wash your bed sheets.

    So regardless of whether your prefer a morning or evening shower, it’s important to clean your bed linen regularly. You should launder your sheets and pillow cases at least weekly to remove all the sweat, bacteria, dead skin cells and sebaceous oils that have built up on your sheets.

    Washing will also remove any fungal spores that might be growing on the bed linen – alongside the nutrient sources these odour producing microbes use to grow.

    Primrose Freestone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is it better to shower in the morning or at night? Here’s what a microbiologist says – https://theconversation.com/is-it-better-to-shower-in-the-morning-or-at-night-heres-what-a-microbiologist-says-256242

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Britain is already becoming an ‘island of strangers’ – but immigration isn’t the driver

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michael Skey, Lecturer in Media and Communications, Loughborough University

    Matthew Troke/Shutterstock

    Keir Starmer’s recent speech on immigration has generated a good deal of controversy. In announcing a government white paper to cut legal migration, the prime minister said: “Nations depend on rules – fair rules. Sometimes they’re written down, often they’re not, but either way, they give shape to our values … Without them, we risk becoming an island of strangers, not a nation that walks forward together.”

    As someone who has researched what gives people a sense of national belonging, I would argue there is evidence that Britain has become an “island of strangers” in the sense that people live increasingly isolated lives. But the problem has very little to do with migration.

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    New public opinion research from think tank More in Common has found that 50% of Britons feel disconnected from society around them, while 44% say they sometimes feel like “strangers in their own country.” This feeling of alienation was strongest among Asian Britons.

    Some evidence suggests a relationship between diversity (ethnic and racial diversity) and lack of social cohesion, rather than migration. The More in Common polling found that 53% of those polled say multiculturalism benefits the UK’s national identity, while 47% say it harms it. But the evidence is mixed, and studies find that it is inequality, not diversity, that has the biggest effect.

    Rather than portraying the problem as solely because of immigration, the prime minister might usefully focus on other significant factors that have made people feel like strangers.

    First is the dramatic loss of community spaces and assets in recent decades in the face of local government cuts and rising property prices. Government austerity has led to a decrease in funding for local authorities of around 50% between 2010 and 2020.

    My own research in this area shows the significance of places like community centres in allowing young people from different backgrounds to come together. When they do, they feel a greater sense of belonging in their communities. Some research has also shown a link between austerity cuts to youth services and rising knife crime.

    Over the last three decades, places and spaces where people come together to participate in activities and engage with those from different backgrounds have been decimated.

    Between 2018 and 2023 in London alone, 46 community spaces permanently shut down. The public service union Unison estimates that “funding cuts have led to the closure of more than two-thirds of council-run youth centres in England and Wales since 2010”.

    Almost 800 libraries were closed during the 2010s, and more continue to disappear each year. Leisure centres are also at risk. A 2023 report by the Local Government Association suggests that 40% of council areas will lose some or all of their leisure centre services in the next two years.

    The undermining of publicly-owned community spaces has been matched in the private sector. The pub – a key marker of community identity for many – has been subject to increasing pressure.

    A recent report from industry body the BBPA claimed that “nearly 300 pubs closed across England and Wales in 2024 – an equivalent of six a week”. The group pointed to rising costs and the fact that consumer habits are changing, with younger people drinking far less.

    A lonely island

    The loss of community assets means people have fewer places to engage with others on a regular basis. There is also evidence that the pandemic and online isolation have driven high rates of loneliness affecting all age groups and generations.

    According to the Campaign to End Loneliness, in 2022 nearly 50% of UK adults reported feeling lonely occasionally, sometimes, often or always. And around 7% experience chronic loneliness.

    While levels of isolation and loneliness have gone up for all generations, it is notable that a report for the Centre for Social Justice found the problem is worst for 18- to 24-year-olds, with 29% of this age group saying they “feel a fundamental separateness from other people and the wider world”.

    Britain’s younger generations are struggling with loneliness.
    Jaromir Chalabala/Shutterstock

    When it comes to discussing community and cohesion in contemporary Britain, it is interesting that only certain groups (usually particular kinds of migrants and their offspring) are the focus. We can see this in wider political and media debates, where such groups are blamed for living separate lives or not integrating.

    I’ve written about this idea before, finding that minority groups “broadly replicate the ethnic majority in terms of their attitudes towards British identity and institutions”. More recent survey data supports this. Figures for various ethnic groups are remarkably consistent when it comes to feeling they belong in Britain – Asian (85%), black (86%) and white (84%).

    Class divide

    The idea that people in Britain are increasingly living separate lives – or in what Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, calls a segregated society – is rarely discussed in terms of inequality or class.

    And yet, the More in Common polling found that financial insecurity is one of the strongest predictors of whether Britons feel disconnected from society.

    Income inequality in Britain is widening. Recent figures show that in 2022 alone, “incomes for the poorest 14 million people fell by 7.5%, while incomes for the richest fifth saw a 7.8% increase”. Moreover, research shows a link between lower economic status and higher rates of loneliness and social isolation.

    It is perhaps these growing divisions that should really be the focus of any government strategy. Focusing on local initiatives designed to protect, or expand, community assets such as libraries and youth and outreach centres appears a much more productive means of ensuring that Britain’s isn’t completely transformed into an island of strangers.

    Michael Skey receives funding from the Arts & Humanities Research Council

    He is a member of Amnesty International

    – ref. Britain is already becoming an ‘island of strangers’ – but immigration isn’t the driver – https://theconversation.com/britain-is-already-becoming-an-island-of-strangers-but-immigration-isnt-the-driver-256724

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: UK and EU sign new trade, fishing and defence deal – what do economists think?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maria Garcia, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, University of Bath

    The UK and EU have announced a range of historic and wide-ranging new agreements touching on trade, defence and borders.

    Since the 2016 Brexit vote, COVID and conflict have changed the global economic landscape dramatically – with consumers feeling the effects every day. So the time could be ripe for a “reset” of relations between the UK and its largest trading partner.

    Beyond trade, the two sides have agreed to negotiate further on a youth mobility scheme. And in future, travellers with UK passports will be able to use e-gates and avoid lengthy queues in some European countries.

    But the agreement is also fraught with political risk, as opposition parties circle to capitalise on the vexxed question of tighter UK-EU relations. We asked a panel of experts for their analysis of the announcements.

    Fisheries agreement unlocks path to ‘reset’

    Maria Garcia, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, University of Bath

    These were the first steps towards the much-vaunted Labour UK-EU “reset”. The announcement of agreements between the UK and EU covered security, energy and fisheries.

    But the announcement falls short of key UK priorities for the reset, which includes a series of measures to facilitate trade with what is still the UK’s largest trade partner and market. The bloc represented 48% of UK goods exports, 36% of services exports, and 51% of goods imports in 2024.

    Fisheries represent roughly 5% of UK agriculture, fisheries and forestry exports, and 0.03% of the UK economy. That may be a smaller slice of GDP than many people might think. But given the regional concentration of the fishing industry, it is vitally important to those communities. The situation is the same in EU countries.

    Fisheries was a difficult issue to tackle in the negotiations for the 2021 UK-EU trade and cooperation agreement (TCA). Under the TCA, the EU agreed to phase out 25% of its catch share in British waters.

    And there was an understanding on permits to fish species subject to fishing quotas that would allow fleets to fish in each others’ waters. The terms of this were due to expire in June 2026.

    French president Emmanuel Macron insisted that without a deal on fisheries he would not accept other areas of the reset. And North Sea countries joined the call to negotiate a deal on fish. This represented a difficult ask for the UK government, given fierce criticism from opposition parties.

    This agreement settles access to fisheries for the next 12 years. Despite its limited economic impact in absolute terms, the political significance should not be underestimated. It is a clear signal of the Starmer government’s commitment to move forward in the relationship with the EU – particularly relevant at a time of complicated global trading relations.

    Other proposed measures include waiving the requirement to submit safety declarations, agreement on sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures and a veterinary agreement to facilitate agricultural trade. These matters are included in the newly published memo in which the UK and EU commit to work towards agreement on SPS. However, there is no announcement as to when this might be finalised.

    But the settlement on fisheries means an important hurdle has been overcome on the path towards the reset.

    Big boost for the UK’s top food export

    Mausam Budhathoki, PhD Researcher, Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling

    This UK-EU agreement has major implications for the Scottish salmon industry, a vital part of Scotland’s economy. In 2024, salmon exports hit a record £844 million, with France accounting for 55% of the total. Salmon is the UK’s top food export, and as such stands to benefit from the reduced customs checks and paperwork outlined in the deal. This will ease access to EU markets.

    Since Brexit, the industry has faced export delays, higher costs and an estimated loss of £80 million–£100 million in EU sales due to new regulatory hurdles. The UK government projects the agreement could add £9 billion to the economy by 2040, with agrifood sectors like salmon farming gaining. Yet, the deal extends EU fishing rights in UK waters until 2038, which may disrupt marine ecosystems essential to salmon farming.

    Although salmon are farmed in sea pens, they rely on clean, stable marine environments that could be affected by increased fishing activity. The agreement also remains politically sensitive. Future UK-EU disputes or changes could bring revisions, creating uncertainty for long-term planning and investment. While the deal offers clear trade benefits, the industry must balance growth opportunities with environmental and political risks.

    The agreement will ease the export process for UK goods to Europe.
    john abrams/Shutterstock

    Defence deal could boost UK economy as well as security

    Conor O’Kane, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Bournemouth University

    The deal looks like the beginning of a path to closer economic ties between the UK and EU, reversing a trend of UK disengagement from Europe following Brexit.

    Growth in the UK economy has been sluggish in recent years, and exporters are facing uncertainty as a result of recent US trade policies. So any opportunity for UK firms to have easier access to EU markets has to be seen as a positive for economic growth.

    Faster economic growth will be absolutely key for UK chancellor Rachael Reeves to meet her “fiscal rules” (reducing national debt and only borrowing money for investment). It will also help to avoid further cuts to government spending. UK borrowing is currently above what the Office for Budget Responsibility was projecting only a year ago.

    The agreement on security and defence is one area of particular interest where growth is concerned. According to the UK government, the agreement “paves the way” for the participation of UK firms in the EU’s €150 billion (£126 billion) joint procurement programme to rearm Europe.

    The EU is stepping up its security spending in light of the Trump administration’s desire to reduce its support for Nato, and there is real potential for the UK defence industry to benefit.

    Mausam Budhathoki receives funding from the EATFISH project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (Grant 956697)..

    Conor O’Kane and Maria Garcia do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. UK and EU sign new trade, fishing and defence deal – what do economists think? – https://theconversation.com/uk-and-eu-sign-new-trade-fishing-and-defence-deal-what-do-economists-think-257052

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Governors are leading the fight against climate change and deforestation around the world, filling a void left by presidents

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Mary Nichols, Distinguished Counsel for the Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, University of California, Los Angeles

    Forests like the Amazon play vital roles in balancing the environment, from storing carbon to releasing oxygen. Silvestre Garcia-IntuitivoFilms/Stone/Getty Images

    When the annual U.N. climate conference descends on the small Brazilian rainforest city of Belém in November 2025, it will be tempting to focus on the drama and disunity among major nations. Only 21 countries had even submitted their updated plans for managing climate change by the 2025 deadline required under the Paris Agreement. The U.S. is pulling out of the agreement altogether.

    Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Chinese President Xi Jinping and the likely absence of – or potential stonewalling by – a U.S. delegation will take up much of the oxygen in the negotiating hall.

    You can tune them out.

    Trust me, I’ve been there. As chair of the California Air Resources Board for nearly 20 years, I attended the annual conferences from Bali in 2007 to Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, in 2023. That included the exhilarating success in 2015, when nearly 200 nations committed to keep global warming in check by signing the Paris Agreement.

    In recent years, however, the real progress has been outside the rooms where the official U.N. negotiations are held, not inside. In these meetings, the leaders of states and provinces talk about what they are doing to reduce greenhouse gases and prepare for worsening climate disasters. Many bilateral and multilateral agreements have sprung up like mushrooms from these side conversations.

    This week, for example, the leaders of several state-level governments are meeting in Brazil to discuss ways to protect tropical rainforests that restore ecosystems while creating jobs and boosting local economies.

    What states and provinces are doing now

    The real action in 2025 will come from the leaders of states and provinces, places like Pastaza, Ecuador; Acre and Pará, Brazil; and East Kalimantan, Indonesia.

    While some national political leaders are backing off their climate commitments, these subnational governments know they have to live with increasing fires, floods and deadly heat waves. So, they’re stepping up and sharing advice for what works.

    State, province and local governments often have jurisdiction over energy generation, land-use planning, housing policies and waste management, all of which play a role in increasing or reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    Their leaders have been finding ways to use that authority to reduce deforestation, increase the use of renewable energy and cap and cut greenhouse gas emissions that are pushing the planet toward dangerous tipping points. They have teamed up to link carbon markets and share knowledge in many areas.

    In the U.S., governors are working together in the U.S. Climate Alliance to fill the vacuum left by the Trump administration’s efforts to dismantle U.S. climate policies and programs. Despite intense pressure from fossil fuel industry lobbyists, the governors of 22 states and two territories are creating policies that take steps to reduce emissions from buildings, power generation and transportation. Together, they represent more than half the U.S. population and nearly 60% of its economy.

    Tactics for fighting deforestation

    In Ecuador, provinces like Morona Santiago, Pastaza, and Zamora Chinchipe are designing management and financing partnerships with Indigenous territories for protecting more than 4 million hectares of forests through a unique collaboration called the Plataforma Amazonica.

    Brazilian states, including Mato Grosso, have been using remote-sensing technologies to crack down on illegal land clearing, while states like Amapá and Amazonas are developing community-engaged bioeconomy plans – think increased jobs through sustainable local fisheries and producing super fruits like acaí. Acre, Pará and Tocantins have programs that allow communities to sell carbon credits for forest preservation to companies.

    Global Forest Watch uses satellite data to track forest cover change. Green shows areas with at least 30% forest cover in 2000. Pink is forest loss from 2003-2023. Blue is forest gain from 2000 to 2020.
    Global Forest Watch, CC BY

    States in Mexico, including Jalisco, Yucatán and Oaxaca, have developed sustainable supply chain certification programs to help reduce deforestation. Programs like these can increase the economic value in some of foods and beverages, from avocados to honey to agave for tequila.

    There are real signs of success: Deforestation has dropped significantly in Indonesia compared with previous decades, thanks in large part to provincially led sustainable forest management efforts. In East Kalimantan, officials have been pursuing policy reforms and working with plantation and forestry companies to reduce forests destruction to protect habitat for orangutans.

    It’s no wonder that philanthropic and business leaders from many sectors are turning to state and provincial policymakers, rather than national governments. These subnational governments have the ability to take timely and effective action.

    Working together to find solutions

    Backing many of these efforts to slow deforestation is the Governors’ Climate and Forests Task Force, which California’s then-Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger helped launch in 2008. It is the world’s only subnational governmental network dedicated to protecting forests, reducing emissions and making people’s lives better across the tropics.

    Today, the task force includes 43 states and provinces from 11 countries. They cover more than one-third of the world’s tropical forests. That includes all of Brazil’s Legal Amazon region, more than 85% of the Peruvian Amazon, 65% of Mexico’s tropical forests and over 60% of Indonesia’s forests.

    From a purely environmental perspective, subnational governments and governors must balance competing interests that do not always align with environmentalists’ ideals. Pará state, for example, is building an 8-mile (13 kilometer) road to ease traffic that cuts through rainforest. California’s investments in its Lithium Valley, where lithium used to make batteries is being extracted near the Salton Sea, may result in economic benefits within California and the U.S., while also generating potential environmental risks to air and water quality.

    Each governor has to balance the needs of farmers, ranchers and other industries with protecting the forests and other ecosystems, but those in the task force are finding pragmatic solutions.

    Pará State Gov. Helder Barbalho arrives for the Amazon Summit in August 2023. Eight South American countries agreed to launch an alliance to fight deforestation in the Amazon at the meeting.
    Evaristo SA / AFP via Getty Images

    The week of May 19-23, 2025, two dozen or more subnational leaders from Brazil, Mexico, Peru, Indonesia and elsewhere are gathering in Rio Branco, Brazil, for a conference on protecting tropical rainforests. They’ll also be ironing out some important details for developing what they call a “new forest economy” for protecting and restoring ecosystems while creating jobs and boosting economies.

    Protecting tropical forest habitat while also creating jobs and economic opportunities is not easy. In 2023, data show the planet was losing rainforest equivalent to 10 soccer fields a minute, and had lost more than 7% since 2000.

    But states and cities are taking big steps while many national governments can’t even agree on which direction to head. It’s time to pay attention more to the states.

    Mary Nichols is affiliated with the Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, which cosponsors the Governors’ Climate and Forests Task Force.

    – ref. Governors are leading the fight against climate change and deforestation around the world, filling a void left by presidents – https://theconversation.com/governors-are-leading-the-fight-against-climate-change-and-deforestation-around-the-world-filling-a-void-left-by-presidents-256988

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Covid-19 death tolls in Europe highlight stark regional differences in 2020 and 2021

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Florian Bonnet, Démographe et économiste, spécialiste des inégalités territoriales, Ined (Institut national d’études démographiques)

    The political decisions made during 2020 and 2021 to combat the Covid-19 pandemic profoundly altered daily life. Professionally, societies faced partial unemployment and widespread adoption of remote work; personally, individuals endured lockdowns and social distancing measures. These interventions aimed to reduce infection rates and ease pressure on healthcare systems, with the primary public health goal of minimizing deaths.


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    More than five years after the pandemic began, what do we know about its impact on human longevity? Here’s a closer look.

    A decline in global life expectancy

    Initial assessments of the pandemic’s toll have been refined over time. According to a World Health Organization (WHO) report published in May 2024, global life expectancy declined by 1.8 years between 2019 and 2021, erasing a decade of progress. These estimates rely on “excess mortality”, a metric that measures the difference between observed mortality during the pandemic and expected mortality in its absence.

    Excess mortality can be quantified using different indicators, such as the number of excess deaths. However, comparing this indicator between countries of different sizes and age structures can be challenging. Another informative metric is the loss of life expectancy at birth, calculated globally by organisations such as the WHO.

    The regular calculation, publication and dissemination of excess mortality indicators are vital for comparing the pandemic’s impact across countries at the national level. However, it is important to recognise that the pandemic did not affect all areas within countries equally. Variability in the severity of the pandemic’s impact often stemmed from differing confinement strategies implemented to contain the virus.

    This uneven distribution highlights the need to quantify these indicators at a more granular geographical level. Such localised analysis can reveal the regions most severely affected, providing valuable insights into the pandemic’s effects and enabling the development of targeted response strategies.

    In a series of studies conducted in 2024, we introduced an innovative method to calculate excess mortality at the regional level. We used this method to estimate excess mortality in 561 European regions in 2020 and expanded the scope to 569 regions across 25 countries in 2020 and 2021. The findings, based on loss of life expectancy at birth, reveal stark contrasts in the pandemic’s impact across Europe.

    In 2020, significant declines in life expectancy were observed in northern Italy and Spain

    Figure 1 illustrates the spatial distribution of estimated losses of life expectancy in 2020. These losses were highest in northern Italy and central Spain. In the Italian regions of Bergamo and Cremona, life expectancy dropped by nearly four years, while Piacenza experienced a decline of three and a half years. In Spain, the regions of Segovia, Ciudad Real, Cuenca and Madrid saw losses of approximately three years.

    The losses were even more pronounced among men (data not presented here), who were disproportionately affected by the pandemic. In Cremona, the decline in life expectancy among men reached nearly five years, while in Bergamo, it was close to four and a half years.

    Figure 1: Estimated loss of observed life expectancy at birth (e0) in 2020 across 569 regions in 25 European countries. Estimates are for both sexes combined.
    Fourni par l’auteur

    Eastern Europe, particularly Poland, along with eastern Sweden and northern and eastern France, also experienced significant, though less severe, declines. In France, the Paris region and areas near the German border recorded the highest losses, ranging from 1.5 to 2 years.

    In contrast, other regions saw much smaller impacts. This is particularly true for southern Italy, much of Scandinavia and Germany, southern parts of the United Kingdom, and western France. In these regions, observed life expectancy is close to what would have been expected in the absence of the pandemic. In France, the implementation of lockdown measures in March and November likely prevented the pandemic from spreading across the entire country from the initial clusters in the north and east.

    In 2021, a shift in the pandemic toward Eastern Europe

    Figure 2 shows the estimated losses of life expectancy in 2021. At a glance, the regions most affected by excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic differed significantly from those in 2020. The most substantial losses were concentrated in Eastern Europe.

    Figure 2: Estimated loss of observed life expectancy at birth (e0) in 2021 across 569 regions in 25 European countries. Estimates are for both sexes combined.
    Fourni par l’auteur

    Among regions where life expectancy declined by more than two years, 61 of Poland’s 73 regions, 12 of the Czech Republic’s 14 regions, all eight Hungarian regions, and seven of Slovakia’s eight regions were affected. In contrast, only one Italian region and one Spanish region experienced losses exceeding two years, despite these countries being heavily impacted in 2020.

    Germany saw much greater losses in 2021 than in 2020, particularly in its eastern regions, where declines often exceeded 1.5 years. In southern Saxony, Halle and Lusatia, losses approached two years. Conversely, Spain and Scandinavia recorded the lowest declines in life expectancy.

    In France, the losses were more uniform than in 2020, generally ranging from 0 to 1.5 years. The highest loss occurred in the Parisian suburbs, particularly Seine-Saint-Denis, where life expectancy fell by 1.5 years – or two years for men.

    What is the overall assessment for these two years?

    To determine the overall impact of 2020 and 2021 in terms of life expectancy loss, we used an indicator that sums up the years of life lost due to the pandemic over this two-year period. This method allows us to rank the 569 European regions.

    The regions most affected were Pulawy, Bytom and Przemyski in southeastern Poland, along with Kosice and Presov in eastern Slovakia. Among the top 50 regions, Eastern Europe dominated, with 36 Polish regions, six Slovakian regions, two Czech regions, one Hungarian region, and both Lithuanian regions included. Italian regions such as Cremona, Bergamo and Piacenza also ranked high, falling between the 15th and 30th positions. In France, Seine-Saint-Denis ranked 81st, while all other French regions were outside the top 100.

    It is crucial to analyse the impact of a crisis like the Covid-19 pandemic at a fine geographical scale, as within-country disparities can be significant. This was particularly evident in Italy in 2020, where the north was far more affected than the south, and in Germany in 2021, with stark differences between the west and the east.

    Our study highlighted the severe impact of the pandemic in specific European regions, where life expectancy losses exceeded three years. The most affected regions shifted over time, moving from areas with traditionally high life expectancy (such as northern Italy, central Spain and the greater Paris region) in 2020 to regions with traditionally lower life expectancy (Eastern Europe) in 2021. France was relatively spared compared to the rest of Europe, with the notable exception of Seine-Saint-Denis.

    The coming years will be critical in determining whether life expectancy levels can return to their long-term trajectories or if the pandemic has caused lasting structural changes in certain regions.

    Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Covid-19 death tolls in Europe highlight stark regional differences in 2020 and 2021 – https://theconversation.com/covid-19-death-tolls-in-europe-highlight-stark-regional-differences-in-2020-and-2021-246374

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 1 in 5 Gazans face starvation. Can the law force Israel to act?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Donald Rothwell, Professor of International Law, Australian National University

    As Israel continues to pound Gaza with airstrikes, killing scores of people a day, the two-month ceasefire that brought a halt to the violence earlier this year feels like a distant memory.

    Israel’s overall military and political objective in Gaza hasn’t changed after 19 months of war: it is still seeking the absolute defeat of Hamas and return of the remaining Israeli hostages.

    But it is unclear how Hamas will ever be militarily defeated unless there is a complete and unconditional surrender and the laying down of all arms. This appears unlikely, despite the success of Israel’s so-called “decapitation strategy” targeting the Hamas leadership.

    And Hamas continues to hold an estimated 57 Israeli hostages in Gaza, of which up to 24 are believed to still be alive. The group is insisting on guarantees that Israel will end the war before releasing any more hostages.

    An ongoing blockade for 18 years

    Israel announced Sunday it will allow a “basic” amount of food to enter Gaza after a nearly three-month blockade of the strip. It was not clear when or how the aid would resume amid “extensive” new ground operations the military said Sunday it had also just begun.

    Israel first imposed a land, sea and air blockade of Gaza in 2007 after Hamas came to power. These restrictions have severely limited the movement of people and vehicles across the border, as well as the amount of food, medicine and other goods that have been permitted to go into and out of Gaza.

    These controls increased significantly after Hamas’ attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023. They’ve been maintained at heightened levels ever since.

    The January ceasefire temporarily increased the flow of food, medical aid and other support into Gaza. However, this came to an end in early March when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu cut off aid again to pressure Hamas to extend the ceasefire and release more hostages. Hostilities resumed soon after.

    The United Nations’ humanitarian efforts in Gaza have now come to a “near-standstill”. On May 13, Tom Fletcher, the UN emergency relief coordinator, addressed the UN Security Council, stating:

    For more than 10 weeks, nothing has entered Gaza – no food, medicine, water or tents. […] Every single one of the 2.1 million Palestinians in the Gaza Strip face the risk of famine. One in five faces starvation.

    Israel denies there are food shortages in Gaza. It has said it wouldn’t permit any trucks to enter the strip until a new system is in place to prevent Hamas from siphoning supplies.

    International law is clear

    Both the 1949 Geneva Conventions and customary international law make clear:

    The use of starvation of the civilian population as a method of warfare is prohibited.

    In addition, the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC) makes starvation of civilians a war crime.

    Under international humanitarian law, Fletcher noted, Israel has the responsibility to ensure aid reaches people in territory it occupies. However, Israel’s method of distributing aid, he said, “makes aid conditional on political and military aims” and “makes starvation a bargaining chip”.

    What have the courts found?

    International courts have not ignored Israel’s obligations on this front.

    In November 2024, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Hamas leader Mohammed Deif (one of the masterminds of the October 7 attack), in addition to Netanyahu and former Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant.

    In relation Netanyahu and Gallant, the ICC’s pre-trial chamber found:

    there are reasonable grounds to believe that both individuals intentionally and knowingly deprived the civilian population in Gaza of objects indispensable to their survival, including food, water, and medicine and medical supplies.

    As Israel is not a party to the Rome Statute, there is no obligation on the government to act on the arrest warrants. Both men remain free to travel as long as they do not enter the territory of a Rome Statute party. (Even then, their arrest is not guaranteed.)

    The ICC warrants will remain in effect unless withdrawn by the court. The arrest in March of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte highlighted that while ICC investigations may take time, those accused of crimes can eventually be brought before the court to face justice.

    This is especially so if there is a change in political leadership in a country that allows an arrest to go ahead.

    Meanwhile, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is hearing another case in which South Africa alleges Israel has committed genocide against the Palestinian population in Gaza.

    The case began with high-profile hearings last year when the court issued provisional measures, or orders, requiring Israel to refrain from engaging in any genocidal acts.

    The most recent of those orders, issued last May, called on Israel to immediately halt its offensive in Rafah (in southern Gaza) and maintain the opening of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt to allow “unhindered provision at scale of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance”.

    These orders remain in effect. Yet, Rafah today is a “no-go zone” that Gazans have been ordered to evacuate. And Israel’s blockade of the strip and restrictions on aid and food entering the territory have clearly been in defiance of the court.

    Late last month, the ICJ began hearings to form an opinion on Israel’s duties to allow aid to enter Gaza. Israel’s foreign minister, Gideon Saar, criticised the ICJ’s hearings as “another attempt to politicise and abuse the legal process in order to persecute Israel”.

    The court’s advisory opinion on this issue is not expected for several months. A final decision on South Africa’s broader case may take years.

    So, what can be done?

    Reflecting on the situation in Gaza, Fletcher observed at the UN:

    This degradation of international law is corrosive and infectious. It is undermining decades of progress on rules to protect civilians from inhumanity and the violent and lawless among us who act with impunity. Humanity, the law and reason must prevail.

    Yet, while the Security Council continues to have the situation in Gaza under review, it has proven incapable of acting decisively because of US support for Israel.

    The Biden Administration was prepared to use its veto power to block binding Security Council resolutions forcing Israel to respond to the humanitarian crisis. The Trump Administration would no doubt do the same.

    However, as Duterte’s arrest shows, international law sometimes does result in action. The finding by another UN body last week that Russia was responsible for the 2014 downing of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 over Ukraine in 2014 is another case in point.

    As the Dutch foreign minister pointed out in that case, the finding sends a message that “states cannot violate international law with impunity”.

    Donald Rothwell receives funding from Australian Research Council

    – ref. 1 in 5 Gazans face starvation. Can the law force Israel to act? – https://theconversation.com/1-in-5-gazans-face-starvation-can-the-law-force-israel-to-act-256695

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s lifting of Syria sanctions is a win for Turkey, too – pointing to outsized role middle powers can play in regional affairs

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hyeran Jo, Associate Professor of Political Science, Texas A&M University

    Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa meet in Turkey on April 11, 2025. TUR Presidency/ Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Handout/Anadolu via Getty Images

    President Donald Trump announced while in Saudi Arabia on May 14, 2025, that the United States would lift sanctions on Syria. The turnaround was a huge victory for the government of Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa as he attempts to consolidate power nearly six months on from his movement’s stunning toppling of the longtime regime of Bashar al Assad.

    But it wasn’t all down to Syria lobbying on its own behalf. In announcing the policy shift, Trump largely attributed the shift to his Saudi hosts as well as Turkey. Both nations are longtime Assad foes who quickly championed al-Sharaa and have been pushing the U.S. to normalize ties with Syria’s new government.

    Turkey, whose resources and land have been heavily affected by instability in neighboring Syria, was particularly instrumental in pushing Trump to accept the post-Assad government, even over objections from Israel.

    As experts in international relations and Turkish law and politics, we believe the developments in Syria point to the outsized role a small-to-middle power like Turkey can have in regional and international matters. That is particularly true in the Middle East, where world powers such as the U.S. are perceived to have a declining and at times unpredictable influence.

    An opening in Syria

    After 13 years of devastating civil war, Syria faces a slew of large challenges, including the immediate task of state building. Not only is violence still readily apparent in Syria itself – as the recent killing of Alawites, allegedly by government forces, or fighters aligned with them, showed – but neighboring Israel has also repeatedly attacked positions in Syria in an attempt to weaken the new government. To Israel’s government, a strong, militarized Syria would pose a threat, particularly in regard to the unstable border at the Golan Heights.

    Despite the issues that confront Syria’s new government, it has nonetheless demonstrated a remarkable aptitude for gaining international acceptance – a notable fact given al-Sharaa’s leadership ties to the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a formerly al-Qaeda linked group listed as one of the U.S. foreign terrorist organizations since 2014.

    Turkey presses its influence

    In this context, Turkey’s hand has been especially important.

    Since Trump took office, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan has pressed the American president to lift sanctions. The two men had struck up a strong relationship during the first Trump administration, with the U.S. president declaring himself to be a “big fan” of the Turkish leader.

    Turkey’s behind-the-scenes diplomacy can be seen as part of its broader effort to fill the vacuum left by Assad’s fall. Doing so not only bolsters Erdogan’s position as a regional player, but it also advances his domestic agenda.

    Turkey has moved quickly on numerous fronts in charting the future course of Syria by pursuing economic and security projects in the country. First and foremost, Turkey has upped its investment in Syria.

    Also, as it did in Libya and Somalia, Turkey has contributed to the training and equipping of new Syrian security forces.

    In the northeast Syrian province of Idlib, Turkey is funding education, health care and electricity, and the Turkish lira is the de facto currency across northwestern Syria.

    The roots of these engagements lie in Turkey’s interest in managing its own security situation.

    Since 1984, Turkey has been fighting Kurdish separatist groups, most notably the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which is aligned with the Kurdish YPG militia in northeast Syria – one of the groups that fought Assad’s forces during Syria’s civil war.

    A Syrian Kurd waves the flag of YPG near Qamishli’s airport in northeastern Syria on Dec. 8, 2024.
    Delil Souleiman/AFP via Getty Images

    Assad’s fall led to Russia’s retreat from Syria. Meanwhile, Iranian influence, too, has waned as a result of not only Assad’s departure, but also the military downgrading of Hezbollah in neighboring Lebanon. And the U.S. no longer actively supports the Kurdish YPG militia in northeast Syria.

    Into this void of external influence, Turkey quickly seized an opportunity to reshape the security landscape.

    Ankara, which still controls large chunks of territory in Syria’s northeast from the fight against Assad and Syrian Kurdish groups, agreed to a Syrian plan to incorporate the YPG, the armed wing of the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF, into the new Syrian army.

    The Turkish perspective has long been that the fight against the PKK can succeed in the long run only with stability on Syrian soil. Now, the PKK is trying to reach peace with the Turkish government, but whether the SDF in Syria will disarm and disband is far from certain. As such, having a strong, stable Syrian government in which a Kurdish majority is accommodated may be in Ankara’s best interests.

    Meanwhile, al-Sharaa’s success in rebuilding Syria after the civil war would also help Turkey on another front: the issue of Syrian refugees.

    Turkey currently hosts around 3.2 million refugees from Syria – the most of any country. The sheer number and length of stay of these displaced people have put a strain on Turkey’s economy and social relations, leading to clashes between Turks and Syrian refugees.

    There is also a broad consensus in Turkey that the Syrian refugee problem in Turkey can be solved only through a comprehensive return strategy.

    Although naturalized Syrians in Turkey make up an important constituency within the voter base of Erdogan’s ruling AK Party, the only solution currently envisaged by the Turkish president and his allies is repatriation. For this, rapid and stable development of infrastructure and the housing stock in Syria is considered essential.

    Donald Trump looks on as Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman greets Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa on May 14, 2025. The confab also had Turkish fingerprints all over it.
    Bandar Aljaloud/Saudi Royal Palace via AP

    Prospects for small-to-middle powers

    Turkey’s strategic opportunity in Syria is not without clear risks, however. The incursions by the Israeli military illustrates the challenge Turkey faces in advancing its own interests in Syria. It is notable that Trump’s announcement on sanctions was seemingly made without the knowledge – and against the wishes – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

    Additionally, Turkey is looking to finesse a growing role in the region into strengthening its position over the long-running dispute in Cyprus. The island, which lies a couple of hundred miles off Syria’s coast, is divided into two regions, with Greek Cypriots in the south and a breakaway Turkish Cypriot north – with only Turkey recognizing the self-declared state in the north. Turkey is trying to regulate maritime jurisdiction in the eastern Mediterranean through an agreement with Syria, but the plan is stalled since the European Union supports Greece’s position in Cyprus.

    The Turkish moves in Syria are nonetheless being broadly felt elsewhere. Arab nations like Saudi Arabia and Qatar support the post-Assad arrangement in Syria and see their own interests being served alongside Turkey’s, although the rivalry of the Sunni world is at stake.

    The lifting of sanctions by the U.S. will have long-term political impacts beyond short-term economic impacts. Syria has little direct trade with the U.S., only exporting its agricultural products and antiques. But the appearance of political legitimacy and recognition is a diplomatic win for Turkey, as well as for Syria. The political opening brings with it the promise of future investment in Syria.

    Turkey’s dealing with Syria showcases how small-to-middle powers can chart the waters of statecraft in their own way. The days of international affairs being dominated by superpowers appear to be over – as many have long predicted. And in Syria, Turkey is providing a blueprint for how small-to-middle powers can work that to their advantage.

    Hyeran Jo receives funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY). The article was made possible in part by the CCNY grant (G-PS-24-62004, Small State Statecraft and Realignment). She is also a senior fellow at the Center on Armed Groups and a member of an expert advisory group at the Institute for Integrated Transitions. The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.

    Ece Göztepe Çelebi receives funding from the Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY). The article was made possible in part by the CCNY grant (G-PS-24-62004, Small State Statecraft and Realignment). She is a Turkish and Comparative Constitutional Law professor at the Law Faculty of Bilkent University (Ankara/Turkey). The statements made and views expressed are solely the responsibility of the author.

    – ref. Trump’s lifting of Syria sanctions is a win for Turkey, too – pointing to outsized role middle powers can play in regional affairs – https://theconversation.com/trumps-lifting-of-syria-sanctions-is-a-win-for-turkey-too-pointing-to-outsized-role-middle-powers-can-play-in-regional-affairs-254162

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –