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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nasa’s Curiosity rover has found the longest chain carbon molecules yet on Mars. It’s a significant finding in the search for alien life

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Derek Ward-Thompson, Professor of Astrophysics, University of Central Lancashire

    The Curiosity rover near the site of Mont Mercou on Mars. NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS

    Nasa’s Curiosity Mars rover has detected the largest organic (carbon-containing) molecules ever found on the red planet. The discovery is one of the most significant findings in the search for evidence of past life on Mars. This is because, on Earth at least, relatively complex, long-chain carbon molecules are involved in biology. These molecules could actually be fragments of fatty acids, which are found in, for example, the membranes surrounding biological cells.

    Scientists think that, if life ever emerged on Mars, it was probably microbial in nature. Because microbes are so small, it’s difficult to be definitive about any potential evidence for life found on Mars. Such evidence needs more powerful scientific instruments that are too large to be put on a rover.

    The organic molecules found by Curiosity consist of carbon atoms linked in long chains, with other elements bonded to them, like hydrogen and oxygen. They come from a 3.7-billion-year-old rock dubbed Cumberland, encountered by the rover at a presumed dried-up lakebed in Mars’s Gale Crater. Scientists used the Sample Analysis at Mars (Sam) instrument on the Nasa rover to make their discovery.

    Scientists were actually looking for evidence of amino acids, which are the building blocks of proteins and therefore key components of life as we know it. But this unexpected finding is almost as exciting. The research is published in Proceedings of the National Academies of Science.

    Among the molecules were decane, which has 10 carbon atoms and 22 hydrogen atoms, and dodecane, with 12 carbons and 26 hydrogen atoms. These are known as alkanes, which fall under the umbrella of the chemical compounds known as hydrocarbons.

    It’s an exciting time in the search for life on Mars. In March this year, scientists presented evidence of features in a different rock sampled elsewhere on Mars by the Perseverance rover. These features, dubbed “leopard spots” and “poppy seeds”, could have been produced by the action of microbial life in the distant past, or not. The findings were presented at a US conference and have not yet been published in a peer reviewed journal.

    The Mars Sample Return mission, a collaboration between Nasa and the European Space Agency, offers hope that samples of rock collected and stored by Perseverance could be brought to Earth for study in laboratories. The powerful instruments available in terrestrial labs could finally confirm whether or not there is clear evidence for past life on Mars. However, in 2023, an independent review board criticised increases in Mars Sample Return’s budget. This prompted the agencies to rethink how the mission could be carried out. They are currently studying two revised options.

    Signs of life?

    Cumberland was found in a region of Gale Crater called Yellowknife Bay. This area contains rock formations that look suspiciously like those formed when sediment builds up at the bottom of a lake. One of Curiosity’s scientific goals is to examine the prospect that past conditions on Mars would have been suitable for the development of life, so an ancient lakebed is the perfect place to look for them.

    The Martian rock known as Cumberland, which was sampled in the study.
    NASA/JPL-Caltech/MSSS

    The researchers think that the alkane molecules may once have been components of more complex fatty acid molecules. On Earth, fatty acids are components of fats and oils. They are produced through biological activity in processes that help form cell membranes, for example. The suggested presence of fatty acids in this rock sample has been around for several years, but the new paper details the full evidence.

    Fatty acids are long, linear hydrocarbon molecules with a carboxyl group (COOH) at one end and a methyl group (CH3) at the other, forming a chain of carbon and hydrogen atoms.

    A fat molecule consists of two main components: glycerol and fatty acids. Glycerol is an alcohol molecule with three carbon atoms, five hydrogens, and three hydroxyl (chemically bonded oxygen and hydrogen, OH) groups. Fatty acids may have 4-36 carbon atoms; however, most of them have 12-18. The longest carbon chains found in Cumberland are 12 atoms long.

    Mars Sample Return will deliver Mars rocks to Earth for study. This artist’s impression shows the ascent vehicle leaving Mars with rock samples.
    Nasa/JPL-Caltech

    Organic molecules preserved in ancient Martian rocks provide a critical record of the past habitability of Mars and could be chemical biosignatures (signs that life was once there).

    The sample from Cumberland has been analysed by the Sam instrument many times, using different experimental techniques, and has shown evidence of clay minerals, as well as the first (smaller and simpler) organic molecules found on Mars, back in 2015. These included several classes of chlorinated and sulphur-containing organic compounds in Gale crater sedimentary rocks, with chemical structures of up to six carbon atoms. The new discovery doubles the number of carbon atoms found in a single molecule on Mars.

    The alkane molecules are significant in the search for biosignatures on Mars, but how they actually formed remains unclear. They could also be derived through geological or other chemical mechanisms that do not involve fatty acids or life. These are known as abiotic sources. However, the fact that they exist intact today in samples that have been exposed to a harsh environment for many millions of years gives astrobiologists (scientists who study the possibility of life beyond Earth) hope that evidence of ancient life might still be detectable today.

    It is possible the sample contains even longer chain organic molecules. It may also contain more complex molecules that are indicative of life, rather than geological processes. Unfortunately, Sam is not capable of detecting those, so the next step is to deliver Martian rock and soil to more capable laboratories on the Earth. Mars Sample Return would do this with the samples already gathered by the Perseverance Mars rover. All that’s needed now is the budget.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nasa’s Curiosity rover has found the longest chain carbon molecules yet on Mars. It’s a significant finding in the search for alien life – https://theconversation.com/nasas-curiosity-rover-has-found-the-longest-chain-carbon-molecules-yet-on-mars-its-a-significant-finding-in-the-search-for-alien-life-253249

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Banning face coverings, expanding facial recognition – how the UK government and police are eroding protest rights

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Daragh Murray, Senior Lecturer in International Human Rights Law at Queen Mary University of London, Queen Mary University of London

    Adam Rhodes UK/Shutterstock

    It’s a dangerous time for protest rights in the UK. The government has introduced a bill that would make it a criminal offence to conceal your identity at a protest.

    The crime and policing bill establishes an offence if a person conceals their identity within a specifically designated area. That is, an area where the police believe that a protest is taking place, or is likely to take place, and that involves, or might involve, the “commission of offences” (people breaking the law).

    These powers are preemptive and vague – how is the “likelihood” of a protest or offences determined? What specific “offences” does the bill refer to? What safeguards exist? Ultimately, the bill does not appear to place any real limits on the degree of discretion extended to the police.

    The passage of this bill would have significant implications for the right to anonymity in public places. It is unparalleled among liberal democratic states, bringing UK practice into line with Russia, Hungary and China.

    Under existing public order law, police already have the power to direct people to remove face coverings. The police justify these new powers on the basis that “individuals may follow the initial direction of the police officer to remove their face covering, but … move … and redeploy the face covering shortly afterwards.”

    The bill continues the previous government’s attempts to erode the right to protest. It’s clear that the motivation for these laws is not concern for public safety, but a desire to significantly extend surveillance powers.



    Read more:
    Policing bill is now law: how your right to protest has changed

    Facial recognition

    Why is a ban on face coverings being introduced now? No significant new challenges to the policing of protest have emerged in recent decades. The difference now, however, is that facial recognition has recently become a viable policing technology.

    As our forthcoming book details, facial recognition technology has rapidly transformed police surveillance capabilities, with profound effects on human rights, the formation of suspicion and on interactions between police and citizens.

    Retrospective facial recognition (the use of facial recognition on recorded materials) is now used by every police force in the UK, and has been, in some cases, for more than a decade. This expansion occurred under the radar and without public debate. Its extent was only revealed through investigative journalism.

    Live facial recognition, which involves real-time identity checks, is also expanding. South Wales Police recently deployed this technology across Cardiff’s pedestrian areas. And London’s Metropolitan Police are planning to install the first permanent live facial recognition cameras in the capital.

    Being identified by police was once only a possibility, now it is a near certainty. The only rules currently governing the police’s use of facial recognition are developed by police forces themselves.

    London’s Met police have used live facial recognition at specific events and protests.
    Andy Soloman/Shutterstock

    In recognition of the dangers posed by such surveillance, we were recently involved in developing, with the UN, a model protocol for law enforcement. It sets out practical guidance that all states should follow when policing protest, making clear that efforts to preserve one’s anonymity should not be treated as suspicious.

    It explicitly prohibits the use of remote biometric technology, like facial recognition or retina scanning, to identify protesters during peaceful demonstrations – something we argue is inconsistent with police’s obligation to facilitate peaceful protest. This protocol was unanimously adopted by the 47 member states of the UN Human Rights Council.

    Why the right to anonymity matters

    The right to privacy, freedom of expression and freedom of assembly are central to the health of a democratic society. This includes the ability to participate anonymously in protests.

    But these rights are not absolute. This means that they can be limited – including in the interests of public safety or the prevention of crime and disorder – if doing so can be considered “necessary in a democratic society”. Given the importance of protest to democratic life, the threshold is high.

    The purpose of protest is to disrupt. The fights for women’s right to vote, trade union recognition and racial equality are all examples where a degree of disruption and disorder has been an intrinsic part of political change. Human rights law requires that public authorities show a certain degree of tolerance in this regard.

    To this end, human rights case law recognises that, no matter how shocking or “unacceptable”, any restrictions on freedom of expression and of assembly – other than in cases of incitement to violence, hate speech, or the rejection of democratic principles – risk undermining democracy itself.

    There is strong research evidence that surveillance of protesters cultivates chilling effects, whereby individuals change their otherwise normal behaviour due to the fear of surveillance. As we explain, this generates compound human rights harms that may fundamentally undermine the ability of citizens to challenge the status quo.

    With this proposed law, the UK is moving out of line with other democratic states and closer into step with Russia and China. Without changes, this bill risks transforming protests into surveillance opportunities.

    Daragh Murray receives funding from UKRI Future Leaders Fellowship, Grant Number: MR/T042133/2.

    Pete Fussey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Banning face coverings, expanding facial recognition – how the UK government and police are eroding protest rights – https://theconversation.com/banning-face-coverings-expanding-facial-recognition-how-the-uk-government-and-police-are-eroding-protest-rights-252976

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: We analyzed racial justice statements from the 500 largest US companies and found that DEI officials really did have an influence

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Donald T. Tomaskovic-Devey, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Center for Employment Equity, UMass Amherst

    In 2020, American businesses responded to an unprecedented wave of racial justice protests with an equally unprecedented surge in corporate commitments. Even as President Donald Trump was calling protesters “terrorists,” companies in industries across the U.S. pledged donations, launched diversity initiatives and issued statements in support of equity and inclusion.

    As social scientists who study corporate political behavior, we, like many others, wondered whether this wave of corporate statements signaled a true commitment to racial justice or whether it was just symbolic. Some skeptics suggested that corporate statements about racial justice were just window dressing. Still others worried that corporations were becoming “woke” and distracted from making profits.

    These concerns have taken on new meaning as the attack on diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI, has become a cornerstone of the new administration. When Donald Trump returned to office, two of his first acts were to ban DEI in federal government employment and overturning 60 years of affirmative action mandates on firms that do business with the government.

    This made us wonder: Were the DEI efforts of recent years actually associated with greater corporate commitments to racial justice? Or was it just more political theater?

    To try to better understand what was happening in corporate America, we collected every racial justice statement made by a Fortune 500 firm in response to the 2020 murder of George Floyd and Black Lives Matter protests.

    We found that most firms stayed silent, while others made only weak symbolic responses. Just 1 in 5 made strong commitments, pledging resources and structural changes to their business practices, such as revamping hiring policies or funding racial justice organizations.

    For that 20%, however, commitments could be substantial.

    Take Microsoft, for example. Just 10 days after Floyd’s murder, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella sent an internal memo condemning police brutality and urging employees to take action. He also announced that Microsoft would donate $1.5 million to racial justice organizations. Microsoft then pledged to invest US$150 million in diversity and inclusion efforts and to establish a $50 million fund to support Black-owned business partners. Microsoft also committed to doubling its Black-owned suppliers by 2023 and Black senior executives by 2025.

    The impact of the DEI professional network

    DEI professionals help companies manage the diversity of their workforces by promoting fairness in treatment and social inclusion. Their basic job is to ensure that workplaces are respectful to all employees. The rise of this job title signals a managerial shift from tolerating cultural diversity to promoting broad inclusion. Some DEI practices – for example, diversity training focused on discrimination – can lead to backlash, research has shown. But inclusive practices, such as ensuring mentoring for everyone, simply tend to foster better workplaces.

    This made us wonder what distinguished the minority of firms that made more robust commitments to racial justice from the others. Our hunch was that when firm leadership discussed how to react to the Black Lives Matter protests, companies that already had DEI professionals with influential voices took stronger action.

    To test our hypothesis, we first searched globally for all DEI job titles in all large firms in LinkedIn. LinkedIn profiles provide the most recent 10 jobs a person holds, so we can identify when and at what firm people had DEI jobs. LinkedIn has proven to be a reliable source of career data for corporate professionals and is especially appropriate for a new and growing job title such as DEI.

    The general picture is clear.

    There was a rapid rise in DEI positions in the U.S., with a big jump in 2020, followed by declines in 2022, when our data ends. Among Fortune 500 companies, however, only about half had any DEI professionals. DEI roles were growing rapidly, but they were far from universal in the largest corporations.

    We also discovered that there was a set of firms central to the global DEI professional network. These firms were a source of future DEI staff for other companies. We measured centrality within the DEI network as the number of people in a firm’s DEI workforce that once worked in other prominent firms in the DEI network. Network centrality is a common way social scientists measure influence in groups.

    To be clear, these weren’t companies that specialize in DEI, but rather had hired DEI staff to help run their core business. The most central firms to the DEI professional network included some of the country’s largest banks, consulting firms and corporations, such as IBM, Johnson & Johnson and General Electric. These firms are also more likely to have made longer and larger investments in DEI staff than other firms.

    Based on prior studies of influence in social networks, we suspected that when a firm’s DEI staff were recruited from these prominent firms in the DEI network, they would have more influence over corporate decisions on how to respond to the 2020 Black Lives Matter protests. We found that the 20% of firms that made strong racial justice comments had much more prominent DEI staff than those that remained silent or made only symbolic statements. This finding has held up in multiple statistical models, where we have controlled for other factors that might be of relevance to making strong racial justice commitments.

    DEI staff, it appears, were influential when the national conversation turned to racial justice. Conversely, we also found that firms with politically conservative CEOs were much more likely to remain silent in the face of Black Lives Matter protests.

    The future of DEI?

    We wondered whether the association of DEI professionals and stronger racial justice commitments was stable, or perhaps just a fleeting result of strong mass protest in 2020. So we examined a second instance of corporations taking a stance. In 2022, the U.S. Supreme Court was considering the constitutional status of affirmative action practices in college admissions. Before the Supreme Court made its ruling, many firms sought to weigh in to influence the result by submitting legal briefs documenting the reasons why they thought the court should rule in favor of affirmative action.

    We found the same kinds of patterns of corporate support for affirmative action in 2022 as we did from the earlier protests in 2020. A total of 46 firms in the Fortune 500 publicly supported affirmative action. Once again, there is a strong relationship between the prominence of DEI professionals and taking action on racial justice policy. Those firms with greater prominence in the DEI network in 2020 were significantly more likely to sign onto a friend-of-the-court briefing in 2022.

    When firms make stronger investments in DEI work, and their DEI professionals are more central to the national DEI network, those DEI professionals were more influential in producing stronger racial justice commitments. This reflects long-term firm investments and the development of a robust, influential DEI staff.

    But only 20% of firms made strong commitments, while the vast majority were pretty silent in the face of national calls for racial justice. DEI roles had begun to drop after 2021, even before Trump’s election, and the current political attack on DEI will be chilling. There was already evidence in 2023 that some major firms were hiring fewer minority employees across their workforces. The influence of DEI professionals was never widespread and is likely now in decline. But we suspect that this decline will be fastest among the firms that were never really committed to racial justice and have particularly conservative CEOs.

    What about responses to the new political environment? As of March 2025, only 31 of the Fortune 500 signaled that they planned to roll back their DEI efforts or eliminate them altogether. Eleven firms publicly defended their DEI efforts, nine of which were among the strong racial justice responders in 2020. None of the firms that were silent in 2020 have defended DEI so far this year.

    So far among the Fortune 500, 92% of firms have remained largely silent about their DEI intentions. Perhaps the most interesting are Amazon, Meta, Google, Target, Ford and Walmart – all firms that made strong racial justice pledges in 2020 but have joined the DEI backlash this year. However, other firms have resisted these trends. The future of equal opportunity in U.S. employment will likely depend, at least in part, on how these silences and defenses are worked out in firms’ internal human resource practices and public commitments.

    This research was supported by the Center for Employment Equity at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst and the W. K. Kellogg Foundation..

    Jorge Quesada Velazco and Kevin L. Young do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. We analyzed racial justice statements from the 500 largest US companies and found that DEI officials really did have an influence – https://theconversation.com/we-analyzed-racial-justice-statements-from-the-500-largest-us-companies-and-found-that-dei-officials-really-did-have-an-influence-249999

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Want to stay healthier and fulfilled later in life? Try volunteering

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Cal J. Halvorsen, Associate Professor of Social Work, Washington University in St. Louis

    New volunteers get trained in Lexington, Ky., to help out at CASA of Lexington in April 2023. AP Photo/Joshua A. Bickel

    As gerontologists – social scientists who study aging populations – we envision a future in which older people leave a doctor’s visit with a prescription to go volunteer for something.

    Does that sound far-fetched? There’s scientific research backing it up.

    Good for your health

    While spending more than a dozen years researching what happens when older adults volunteer with nonprofits, including churches, we’ve found that volunteers consider themselves to be in better health than their peers who don’t. In addition, their blood pressure is lower, and they appear to be aging more slowly than other people of the same age.

    Other researchers have found that volunteering is associated with a lower risk of having a heart attack.

    The mental health benefits are just as striking.

    Volunteering is tied to having fewer symptoms of depression and being more satisfied with your life. It often brings an instant boost in mood – along with a deeper sense of meaning and purpose.

    Even engaging in what’s known as “informal helping” – lending a hand to friends, neighbors or community members in need, without getting paid or participating in an organized program – can help you in similar ways.

    There are also health benefits for those who start volunteering much earlier in life.

    Children and teens who volunteer tend to have better health and lower levels of anxiety and fewer behavioral problems than those who don’t volunteer.

    Changing demographics

    The number of U.S. adults at least 62 years old – the earliest age at which you can claim Social Security retirement benefits – has grown by nearly 35 million since 2000, while the number of children and teens under 18 has fallen by nearly 1.5 million. There are now about 76 million Americans over 62 and 71 million under 18.

    This change has been gradual. Following a long-term demographic shift, record numbers of Americans are reaching retirement age.

    Benefits for society and the economy

    The benefits of volunteering aren’t just for the volunteers themselves.

    The total value of the hours of unpaid work volunteers put in totals an estimated US$170 billion each year, according to AmeriCorps, the federal agency focused on national and community service.

    And participating in community service programs can lead to better job prospects for volunteers, that same agency has found.

    AmeriCorps Seniors, which focuses on engaging volunteers ages 55 and older, runs programs that offer major benefits to their communities. These include the Foster Grandparent program, which connects older adult mentors to children, and the Senior Companion program, which connects volunteers to older adults seeking some help to continue living independently in their own homes.

    A current AmeriCorps Seniors pilot program is helping adults 55 and up, who can have more trouble landing new jobs than younger people, gain new job skills through their community service.

    People of all ages can get together through volunteering. Some organizations intentionally encourage this kind of intergenerational cooperation, including CoGenerate and Generations United.

    Rebuilding communities

    Researchers have also found that volunteering may increase trust within a community, especially when it brings together people from different backgrounds.

    It can strengthen “social cohesion,” a term researchers use to describe how much people bond and help each other, and reduce prejudice.

    Volunteers’ views on social issues may change through their work, too: More than 4 in 5 adults over 55 who tutored public school students to strengthen their reading skills in the national Experience Corps program, for example, stated that their views on public education evolved as a result. Those volunteers expressed more support for public education and said they’d be more likely to vote in favor of spending on schools.

    An American pastime

    Our findings are backed by science, but they also have roots in American history.

    Alexis de Tocqueville – a French philosopher and diplomat who arrived in the United States in 1831 to study the new nation’s penal system – was so impressed by the scale of volunteering in the U.S. that he wrote about it in his 1835 book “Democracy in America.”

    Tocqueville observed that “Americans of all ages, all conditions, all minds” were likely to unite in many kinds of groups or associations.

    More recently, former U.S. Surgeon General Vivek Murthy has said that volunteering can strengthen communities, and that “community is a powerful source of life satisfaction and life expectancy.”

    If you aren’t volunteering today, here are a few ideas to help you begin.

    Start small. Try joining an organization or association in your community, taking part in neighborhood cleanups or volunteering at your local senior center, animal shelter or museum. Love gardening? You can take care of local parks, conservation areas, community gardens and more.

    Once you’re ready for a bigger commitment, consider becoming a mentor through programs such as OASIS Intergenerational Tutoring or Big Brothers Big Sisters.

    And consider a more extensive level of commitment to organizations or causes you care deeply about. This might include joining a nonprofit board of directors, volunteering more hours, or taking on a volunteer leadership role.

    At a time when trust is eroding and divisions seem insurmountable, volunteering offers something rare: an evidence-backed way to reconnect with communities, institutions and each other.

    Reach out to your favorite nonprofit, visit Volunteer.gov or VolunteerMatch.org, or connect with a nonprofit resource center, a regional United Way or a community foundation to find volunteer opportunities near you.

    Cal Halvorsen is a Senior Research Fellow at CoGenerate. He received funding from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute to examine the longitudinal effects of volunteering on cardiovascular disease biomarkers.

    Seoyoun Kim receives funding from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute to examine the longitudinal effects of volunteering on cardiovascular biomarkers.

    – ref. Want to stay healthier and fulfilled later in life? Try volunteering – https://theconversation.com/want-to-stay-healthier-and-fulfilled-later-in-life-try-volunteering-252585

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK has a lot of people out of work because of mental illness – but listening to those affected reveals that’s rarely the whole story

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Annie Louise Irvine, Research Affiliate, King’s College London

    ARMMY PICCA/Shutterstock

    What is going on in the UK when it comes to the massive rise in benefit claims related to mental health? It’s complicated, that much is certain.

    Understanding the causes of mental health-related economic inactivity and what to do about it is at the top of the UK government’s policy agenda. It recently set out plans in a green paper to improve access to effective employment support for people with mental health problems. At the same time, controversial reforms to health and disability benefits were central to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s spring statement.

    As a social researcher, listening closely to people’s lived experiences has taught me that while their distress is genuine, significant and at times severe, it is rarely the whole story of what is constraining their ability to find and stay in work.

    Mental distress is almost invariably bound up in other challenging circumstances that also pose barriers to work – issues such as homelessness, violence and abuse, caring commitments, lone parenthood, poverty, involvement with the criminal justice system, and the obstacles caused by inflexible employers and insecure work.

    This has made me wonder if the system’s very narrow focus on health as a barrier to work is part of the problem.

    It’s not that the mental health conversation has gone too far – but it may have become too narrow. While it is essential to respond to people’s distress, we can’t understand their capacity for work, or support their steps back into employment, unless we pay attention to all the other factors that limit their opportunities for work.

    The work capability assessment (WCA) was introduced 17 years ago to determine how far and in what ways someone’s disability, illness or health condition limits them from working. Since then, welfare support has been narrowed down to questions of obligation and conditionality – with health as the central focus.

    But this narrow approach, and the exclusive link between ill health and work-related obligations, has crowded out the full range of challenges, constraints and contingencies that affect people’s capacity for work. When health is the only thing the system is interested in, it’s the only thing claimants can discuss.

    So now, with the UK government’s plan to scrap the WCA and introduce a new kind of “support conversation”, there is an opportunity to bring this broader range of factors back into the picture.

    In a positive shift, the government has recognised that discussions about work need to include a better understanding of people’s goals and aspirations, and that these conversations should also facilitate access to support for debt, housing, careers, training and social connection.

    How this might be done is a question that needs careful thought and experimentation. The government is seeking responses on how this “support conversation” should be designed and delivered.

    In a recent workshop, we explored the opportunities and challenges that might arise from a more holistic approach to assessing capacity for work. Participants in our workshop felt there was potential for more positive experiences and effective support.

    But they also envisaged risks both for claimants and welfare services, including the potential for claimants to be retraumatised, as well as extra admin and the possibility of raising unrealistic expectations.

    Better support for people who want to work

    As the government’s Pathways to Work green paper recognises, there are many people for whom formal paid employment may never be possible. But there are some people in the health-related benefits group who would like to work.

    In my most recent research project, I met people living with mental health difficulties and neurodivergence who were keen to work but felt frustrated at the lack of personalised support. Here are a few examples of what they told me:

    In my experience, they don’t help you, they just tell you to do this, that and the other. But they’re not supporting you through the process of finding a job. They’re just throwing these jobs at you. (female, 26)

    I do want to work. It’s just, I want to be able to work and then keep the job. And right now, I just I don’t feel like I’ve got the right things in place to help me with that … I don’t want to use it as just an excuse … What I want is: ‘Oh, I’ve got ADHD, can you please take that into account?’ (male, 33)

    I really don’t know what [job] to go for … A lot of my issues have been connected to frustration and feeling stuck, and not being able to find a pathway into sustainable employment – and things related to education. It’s all kind of linked in a bundle (male, 38)

    Shifting the balance towards personalised and holistic support is a step in the right direction. But the spectre of welfare conditionality, and the threat of sanctions if someone is unable to fulfil work-related activities, will always be a block on engaging those who might be able to work, given the appropriate time and support.

    While the green paper describes sanctions as a “last resort”, it does not go far enough on removing compliance from people’s encounters with the system.

    Mental ill health is often part of a bigger picture of challenging circumstances including lone parenthood or poverty.
    Alena Ozerova/Shutterstock

    The goal should be to make a safe space for people to go beyond the health conversation. The new “support conversation” must allow people to talk about their health and non-health constraints, and the full range of support they need to move into appropriate work.

    We do need to talk about mental health – the reality of people’s distress must never be undermined. But we need to talk about more than just mental health, and approach people’s work-related challenges with an appreciation that mental health problems rarely arise out of nowhere. We cannot understand capacity for work without understanding people’s wider social context.

    Lastly, we really need to ditch the “any job” approach. It is the fit of a particular workplace and particular job with a person’s unique life circumstances that makes the difference as to whether work is feasible, fulfilling and sustainable.

    Annie Louise Irvine has received research funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. She is affiliated with the ESRC Centre for Society and Mental Health, the University of York School for Business and Society, and serves as a non-executive Director for the organisation Better Connect.

    – ref. The UK has a lot of people out of work because of mental illness – but listening to those affected reveals that’s rarely the whole story – https://theconversation.com/the-uk-has-a-lot-of-people-out-of-work-because-of-mental-illness-but-listening-to-those-affected-reveals-thats-rarely-the-whole-story-252891

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: As federal environmental priorities shift, sovereign Native American nations have their own plans

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Alyssa Kreikemeier, Assistant Professor of History, University of Idaho

    Billy Frank Jr., left, a Nisqually tribal elder, was arrested dozens of times while trying to assert his native fishing rights during the ‘Fish Wars’ of the 1960s and 1970s. In this 2014 photo, he stands with Ed Johnstone of the Quinault tribe. AP Photo/Ted S. Warren

    Long before the large-scale Earth Day protests on April 22, 1970 – often credited with spurring significant environmental protection legislation – Native Americans stewarded the environment. As sovereign nations, Native Americans have been able to protect land, water and air, including well beyond their own boundaries.

    Their actions laid the groundwork for modern federal law and policy, including national legislation aimed at reducing pollution. Now the Trump administration is seeking to weaken some of those limits and eliminate programs aimed at improving the environments in which marginalized people live and work.

    As an environmental historian, I study how Native Americans have shaped environmental management. Tribal nations are the longest stewards of the lands today known as the United States. My work indicates not only that tribal nations contributed to the origins and evolution of modern environmental management on tribal and nontribal lands, but also that they are well poised to continue environmental management and scientific research regardless of U.S. government actions.

    Environmental sovereignty

    Native peoples stewarded and studied their environments for millennia before European colonization. Today, Native nations continue to use science, technology and Indigenous knowledge to benefit their own people and the broader population.

    Their stewardship continues despite repeated and ongoing efforts to dispossess Native peoples. In 1953, Congress reversed centuries of federally recognizing tribal authority, passing a law that terminated tribal nations’ legal and political status and federal obligations under treaties and legal precedents, including requirements to provide education and health care.

    This termination policy subjected tribal nations and reservation lands to state jurisdiction and relocated at least 200,000 Native people from tribal lands to urban centers.

    A groundswell of Native American resistance captured national attention, including protests and tactics such as “fish-ins,” which involved fishing at traditional grounds guaranteed by treaties but not honored by land use at the time. Their efforts led federal courts to affirm the very rights termination had sought to expunge.

    Native nations regained federally recognized rights and political power at the same time as the national environmental awakening. In fact, tribal nations exercised environmental sovereignty in ways that restored federal recognition and influenced broader U.S. environmental law and policy.

    Air quality

    In the 1960s, air pollution in America posed a serious health threat, with smog killing Americans on occasion and harming their long-term health. Under the 1970 Clean Air Act amendments, the federal government set national standards for air quality and penalties for polluters.

    As early as 1974, the Northern Cheyenne Tribe in southeastern Montana began monitoring its own air quality. Finding that its air was substantially cleaner than other areas of the country, the tribe used a new approach to push the Environmental Protection Agency to approve enhanced protections beyond the minimum federal standards. The Northern Cheyenne wanted to prevent polluting industries from moving into locations with cleaner air that could be polluted without exceeding the federal limits. That protection was codified in the 1977 Clean Air Act amendments, which established legal protections and a process for communities to claim greater pollution protections nationwide.

    In 1978, the Northern Cheyenne used their higher standards to limit pollution sources on private land upwind of tribal lands, temporarily blocking the construction of two additional coal-fired power plants.

    Within a decade, the Assiniboine and Sioux nations at Fort Peck and the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes also claimed enhanced air protection and developed air quality monitoring programs even before most state governments did. Dozens of tribal nations have taken control of their air quality in the years since.

    This September 1941 photo shows Native Americans fishing for salmon at Celilo Falls, Ore.
    Russell Lee/Library of Congress via AP

    Waterways

    Native nations also exercise sovereignty over waterways. In the Pacific Northwest, people whose ancestors have lived in the area for at least 16,000 years have moved to protect themselves and their lands from the effects of massive hydropower projects.

    The Columbia River Basin hydropower project, which began in the 1930s, now includes over 250 dams that together generate nearly half of the United States’ hydropower. Its dams and associated development stretch from the Canadian Rockies to Southern California, with effects crossing dozens of Native nations as well as international and state boundaries. The construction of the dams inundated multiple tribal nations’ lands and displaced thousands of Native people.

    When four dams were built on the lower Snake River in Idaho in the 1960s, they inundated ancestral lands and fishing grounds of Columbia River Native Americans, including the Nez Perce Tribe. The dams decimated fish populations many tribes have long relied upon for both sustenance and cultural practices and destroyed ancient and culturally significant fishing sites, including Celilo Falls near The Dalles, Oregon, which had been fished for at least 10,000 years.

    Nez Perce scientists and environmental managers, working alongside other Northwest tribes, have documented the near extinction of numerous species of salmon and steelhead fish, despite federal, state and tribal agencies investing billions of dollars in hatchery programs to boost fish populations. The Nez Perce Department of Fisheries Resources Management protects and restores aquatic ecosystems. In collaboration with nearby communities, the tribe also restores significant areas of habitat on nontribal lands. That includes decommissioning many miles of logging roads, removing mine tailings and sowing tens of thousands of native plants.

    The Nez Perce and other tribes advocate for the removal of those four dams to restore salmon populations. They cite, among other evidence, a 2002 Army Corps of Engineers study that found removal was the most effective way to meet the Endangered Species Act’s requirements to restore decimated fish populations.

    As part of a collaboration between federal agencies and Native tribes, juvenile coho salmon are released into the Columbia River Basin.
    AP Photo/Gillian Flaccus

    Taking a long view

    Native Americans and tribal nations see environmental sovereignty as essential to their past, present and future.

    In 2015, the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes became the first Native nation to take over a federal dam when they purchased the Selis Ksanka Qlispe dam, operating on the Flathead River in Montana. Managed by a tribal corporation, the dam produces enough hydropower to supply 100,000 homes, bringing millions of dollars to tribal coffers rather than enriching a corporation in Pennsylvania.

    Over the decades, Native nations have partnered with federal agencies and used federal laws and funds to manage their environments. They have also built connections between tribes and nations across the continent.

    For instance, the Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission coordinates and assists Columbia Basin tribes with environmental management and fishing rights. In northern New Mexico, the Indigenous women of Tewa Women United work against the legacy and ongoing effects of nuclear research affecting their homelands and communities from Los Alamos National Laboratory.

    Across the U.S., the Indian Land Tenure Foundation works with Native peoples to secure control of their homelands through land return and legal reforms, while Honor the Earth organizes Indigenous peoples in North America and globally to advance social change rooted in Indigenous sovereignty through treaty organizing and advocacy.

    Tribal governments have been hit hard by the shifts in federal priorities, including Trump administration funding cuts that have slowed scientific research, such as environmental monitoring and management on tribal lands.

    Tribal governance takes a long view based in Native peoples’ deep history with these lands. And their legal and political status as sovereign nations – backed by the U.S. Constitution, treaties, more than 120 Supreme Court rulings and the plain text of federal laws – puts Native nations in a strong position to continue their efforts, no matter which ways the federal winds blow.

    I have conducted research for the National Park Service as an employee of the University of New Mexico’s School for Architecture and Planning. My research at the University of Idaho has been partially supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation’s Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research.

    – ref. As federal environmental priorities shift, sovereign Native American nations have their own plans – https://theconversation.com/as-federal-environmental-priorities-shift-sovereign-native-american-nations-have-their-own-plans-251685

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From censorship to curiosity: Pope Francis’ appreciation for the power of history and books

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Joëlle Rollo-Koster, Professor of Medieval History, University of Rhode Island

    Pope Francis delivers the Angelus noon prayer in St. Peter’s Square, at the Vatican, on Nov. 10, 2024. AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia

    In January 2025, while doing research at the Vatican archives, I heard Pope Francis’ Sunday prayers in St. Peter’s Square. The pope reflected on the ceasefire that had just gone into effect in Gaza, highlighting the role of mediators, the need for humanitarian aid, and his hope for a two-state solution.

    “Let us pray always for tormented Ukraine, for Palestine, Israel, Myanmar, and all the populations who are suffering because of war,” he concluded. “I wish you all a good Sunday, and please, do not forget to pray for me. Enjoy your lunch, and arrivederci!”

    A few weeks later, Francis was admitted to the hospital, where he remained for more than a month, receiving treatment for double pneumonia.

    In those weeks of uncertainty, I thought back to the pope’s words that Sunday afternoon. They encapsulate Francis’ image: a spiritual leader using his influence to try to bring peace. He is also a down-to-earth man who wishes you “buon appetito.”

    Francis does not fear addressing contemporary politics, unlike many of his predecessors. And some popes have closed their eyes to not just current events but past ones: learning and history that threatened their vision of the church.

    As a medievalist, I appreciate Francis’ contrasting approach: a religious leader who embraces history and scholarship, and encourages others to do the same – even as book bans and threats to academic freedom mount.

    People in St. Peter’s Square watch a broadcast as Pope Francis makes his first appearance since entering the hospital.
    AP Photo/Gregorio Borgia

    Infamous index

    For 400 years, the Catholic Church famously maintained the Index Librorum Prohibitorum, a long list of banned books. First conceived in the 1500s, it matured under Pope Paul IV. His 1559 index counted any books written by people the church deemed heretics – anyone not speaking dogma, in the widest sense.

    Even before the index, church leaders permitted little flexibility of thought. In the decades leading up to it, however, the church doubled down in response to new challenges: the rapid spreading of the printing press and the Protestant Reformation.

    The Catholic Counter-Reformation, which took shape at the Council of Trent from 1545-1563, reinforced dogmatism in its effort to rebuke reformers. The council decided that the Vulgate, a Latin translation of the Bible, was enough to understand scripture, and there was little need to investigate its original Greek and Hebrew version.

    Bishops and the Vatican began producing lists of titles that were forbidden to print and read. Between 1571-1917, the Sacred Congregation of the Index, a special unit of the Vatican, investigated writings and compiled the lists of banned readings approved by the pope. Catholics who read titles on the Index of Forbidden Books risked excommunication.

    In 1966, Pope Paul VI abolished the index. The church could no longer punish people for reading books on the list but still advised against them, as historian Paolo Sachet highlights. The moral imperative not to read them remained.

    The title page of a version of the Index Librorum Prohibitorum, published in 1711.
    National Library of Slovenia/Drw1 via Wikimedia Commons

    Historian J.M de Bujanda has completed the most comprehensive list of books forbidden across the ages by the Catholic Church. Its authors include astronomer Johannes Kepler and Galileo, as well as philosophers across centuries, from Erasmus and René Descartes to feminist Simone de Beauvoir and existentialist Jean-Paul Sartre. Then there are the writers: Michel de Montaigne, Voltaire, Denis Diderot, David Hume, historian Edward Gibbon and Gustave Flaubert. In sum, the index is a who’s who of science, literature and history.

    Love of humanities

    Compare that with a letter Francis published on Nov. 21, 2024, emphasizing the importance of studying church history – particularly for priests, to better understand the world they live in. For the pope, history research “helps to keep ‘the flame of collective conscience’ alive.”

    The pope advocated for studying church history in a way that is unfiltered and authentic, flaws included. He emphasized primary sources and urged students to ask questions. Francis criticized the view that history is mere chronology – rote memorization that fails to analyze events.

    In 2019, Francis changed the name of the Vatican Secret Archives to the Vatican Apostolic Archives. Though the archives themselves had already been open to scholars since 1881, “secret” connotes something “revealed and reserved for a few,” Francis wrote. Under Francis, the Vatican opened the archives on Pope Pius XII, allowing research on his papacy during World War II, his knowledge of the Holocaust and his general response toward Nazi Germany.

    An attendant opens the section of the Vatican archives dedicated to Pope Pius XII on Feb. 27, 2020.
    Alberto Pizzoli/AFP via Getty Images

    In addition to showing respect for history, the pope has emphasized his own love of reading. “Each new work we read will renew and expand our worldview,” he wrote in a letter to future priests, published July 17, 2024.

    Today, he continued, “veneration” of screens, with their “toxic, superficial and violent fake news” has diverted us from literature. The pope shared his experience as a young Jesuit literature instructor in Santa Fe, then added a sentence that would have stupefied “index popes.”

    “Naturally, I am not asking you to read the same things that I did,” he stated. “Everyone will find books that speak to their own lives and become authentic companions for their journey.”

    Citing his compatriot, the novelist Jorge Luis Borges, Francis reminded Catholics that to read is to “listen to another person’s voice. … We must never forget how dangerous it is to stop listening to the voice of other people when they challenge us!”

    When Francis dies or resigns, the Vatican will remain deeply divided between progressives and conservatives. So are modern democracies – and in many places, the modern trend leans toward nationalism, fascism and censorship.

    But Francis will leave a phenomenal rebuttal. One of the pope’s greatest achievements, in my view, will have been his engagement with the humanities and humanity – with a deep understanding of the challenges it faces.

    Joëlle Rollo-Koster does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From censorship to curiosity: Pope Francis’ appreciation for the power of history and books – https://theconversation.com/from-censorship-to-curiosity-pope-francis-appreciation-for-the-power-of-history-and-books-250734

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cuts to science research funding cut American lives short − federal support is essential for medical breakthroughs

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Deborah Fuller, Professor of Microbiology, School of Medicine, University of Washington

    Divesting from the next generation of researchers means cutting the lifeblood of science and medicine. J Studios/DigitalVision via Getty Images

    Nearly every modern medical treatment can be traced to research funded by the National Institutes of Health: from over-the-counter and prescription medications that treat high cholesterol and pain to protection from infectious diseases such as polio and smallpox.

    The remarkable successes of the decades-old partnership between biomedical research institutions and the federal government are so intertwined with daily life that it’s easy to take them for granted.

    However, the scientific work driving these medical advances and breakthroughs is in jeopardy. Federal agencies such as the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation are terminating hundreds of active research grants under the current administration’s direction. The administration has also proposed a dramatic reduction in federal support of the critical infrastructure that keeps labs open and running. Numerous scientists and health professionals have noted that changes will have far-reaching, harmful outcomes for the health and well-being of the American people.

    The negative consequences of defunding U.S. biomedical research can be difficult to recognize. Most breakthroughs, from the basic science discoveries that reveal the causes of diseases to the development of effective treatments and cures, can take years. Real-time progress can be hard to measure.

    Medical breakthroughs are built on years of painstaking research.
    Scott Olson/Getty Images

    As biomedical researchers studying infectious diseases, viruses and immunology, we and our colleagues see this firsthand in our own work. Thousands of ongoing national and international projects dedicated to uncovering the causes of life-threatening diseases and developing new treatments to improve and save lives are supported by federal agencies such as the NIH and NSF.

    Considering a few of the breakthroughs made possible through U.S. federal support can help illustrate not only the significant inroads biomedical research has made for preventing, treating and curing human maladies, but what all Americans stand to lose if the U.S. reduces its investment in these endeavors.

    A cure for cancer

    The hope and dream of curing cancer unites many scientists, health professionals and affected families across the U.S. After decades of ongoing NIH-supported research, scientists have made significant progress in realizing this goal.

    The National Cancer Institute of the NIH is the world’s largest funder of cancer research. This investment has led to advances in cancer treatment and prevention that helped reduce the overall U.S. cancer death rate by 33% from 1991 to 2021.

    Basic science research on what causes cancer has led to new strategies to harness a patient’s own immune system to eliminate tumors. For example, all 12 patients in a 2022 clinical trial testing one type of immunotherapy had their rectal cancer completely disappear, without remission or adverse effects.

    Cuts in NIH funding will directly affect patients.

    Another example of progress is the 2024 results of an ongoing clinical trial of a targeted therapy for lung cancer, showing an 84% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death. Similarly, in a study of women who were immunized against the human papillomavirus at age 12 or 13, none developed the disease later. Since the widespread adoption of HPV vaccination, cervical cancer deaths have dropped 62%.

    Despite these incredible successes, there is still a long way to go. In 2024, over 2 million people in the U.S. were estimated to be newly diagnosed with cancer, and 611,720 were expected to die from the disease.

    Without sustained federal support for cancer research, progress toward curing cancer and reducing its death rate will stall.

    Autoimmune and neurodegenerative diseases

    Nearly every family is touched in some way by autoimmune and neurodegenerative diseases. Government-funded research has enabled major advances to combat conditions such as rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s and Alzheimer’s disease.

    For example, approximately 1 in 5 Americans have arthritis, an autoimmune disease that causes joint swelling and stiffness. A leading cause of disability and economic costs in the U.S., there is no cure for arthritis. But new drugs in development are able to significantly improve symptoms and slow or prevent disease progression.

    Researchers are also gaining insight into what causes multiple sclerosis, an autoimmune disease where the immune system attacks the protective covering of nerves and can result in paralysis. Scientists recently found a link between multiple sclerosis and Epstein-Barr virus, a pathogen estimated to infect over 90% of adults around the world. While multiple sclerosis is currently incurable, identifying its underlying cause can provide new avenues for prevention and treatment.

    The NIH’s BRAIN Initiative has invested more than $3 billion in neuroscience research since it began in 2013.
    Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

    Alzheimer’s disease causes irreversible nerve damage and is the leading cause of dementia. In 2024, 6.9 million Americans ages 65 and older were living with Alzheimer’s. Most treatments address cognitive and behavioral symptoms. However, two new drugs developed with NIH-supported research and clinical trials were approved in July 2023 and July 2024 to treat early-stage Alzheimer’s. Federal funding is also supporting the development of blood tests for earlier detection of the disease.

    None of these breakthroughs are a cure. But they represent important steps forward on the path toward ultimately reducing or eliminating these devastating ailments. Lack of funding will slow or block further progress, leading to the continued rise of the incidence and severity of these conditions.

    Infectious diseases and the next pandemic

    The world’s capacity to combat infectious disease will also be weakened by cuts to U.S. federal support of biomedical research.

    Over the past 50 years, medical and public health advances have led to the eradication of smallpox globally and the elimination of polio in the U.S. HIV/AIDS, once a death sentence, is now a disease that can be managed with medication. Moreover, a new version of treatments called preexposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, offers complete protection against HIV transmission when taken only twice per year.

    Similarly, the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the critical role biomedical research plays in responding to public health threats. Increased federal support of science during this time allowed the United States to emerge with new drugs, vaccine platforms with the potential to treat a variety of chronic diseases, and insights on how to effectively detect and respond to pandemic threats.

    The ongoing avian influenza outbreak and its spillover into American dairy herds and poultry farms is another pandemic threat looming on the horizon. Rather than build upon infrastructure for outbreak surveillance and preparedness, grants that would allow scientists to better understand long COVID-19, vaccines and other pandemic-related research are being cut. Decreased funding of biomedical research will hamper the U.S.’s ability to respond to the next pandemic, putting everyone at risk.

    Research across the country has ground to a halt as grants remain in limbo or have been terminated altogether.
    Scott Olson/Getty Images

    Losses from defunding biomedical research

    The National Institutes of Health contributed over $100 billion to support research that ultimately led to the development of all new drugs approved from 2010 to 2016 alone. Over 90% of this funding was for basic research into understanding the causes of disease that provides the foundation for new treatments.

    Under the new directive to eliminate projects that support or use terms associated with diversity, equity and inclusion, the NIH and other federal agencies have made deep cuts to biomedical research that will directly affect patient lives.

    Already, nearly 41% of Americans will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lifetime, and nearly 11% with Alzheimer’s. About 1 in 5 Americans will die from heart disease, and nearly 1.4 million will be rushed to an emergency room due to pneumonia from an infectious disease.

    Defunding biomedical research will result in a cascade of effects. There will likely be fewer clinical trials, fewer new treatments and fewer lifesaving drugs. Labs will likely shut down, jobs will be lost, and the process of discovery will stall. The U.S.’s health care system, economy and standing as the world’s leader in scientific innovation will likely decline.

    Moreover, when the pipelines of scientific progress are turned off, they will not so easily be turned back on. These consequences will affect all Americans and the rest of the world for decades.

    University shortfalls directly resulting from cuts to research support will dramatically reduce the capacity of American institutions to educate and provide opportunities for the next generation. Funding cuts have led to the shuttering or heavy reduction of training programs for future scientists.

    Graduate students and postdoctoral trainees are the lifeblood of biomedical research. Supporting these young people committed to public service through research and health care is also an investment in medical advancements and public health. But the uncertainty and instability resulting from the divestment of federally funded programs will likely severely deplete the biomedical workforce, crippling the United States’ ability to deliver future biomedical breakthroughs.

    By cutting biomedical research funding, Americans and the rest of the world stand to lose new cures, new treatments and an entire generation of researchers.

    Deborah Fuller receives funding from the National Institutes Health. The personal views expressed here are those of the authors.

    Patrick Mitchell receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. The personal views expressed here are those of the authors.

    – ref. Cuts to science research funding cut American lives short − federal support is essential for medical breakthroughs – https://theconversation.com/cuts-to-science-research-funding-cut-american-lives-short-federal-support-is-essential-for-medical-breakthroughs-252150

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Chronic kidney disease often goes undiagnosed, but early detection can prevent severe outcomes

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Eleanor Rivera, Assistant Professor of Population Health Nursing Science, University of Illinois Chicago

    Testing for kidney function can help identify chronic kidney disease early enough to intervene. PIXOLOGICSTUDIO/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

    For a disease afflicting 35.5 million people in the U.S., chronic kidney disease flies under the radar. Only half the people who have it are formally diagnosed.

    The consequences of advanced chronic kidney disease are severe. When these essential organs can no longer do their job of filtering waste products from the blood, patients need intensive medical interventions that gravely diminish their quality of life.

    As an assistant professor of nursing and an expert in population health, I study strategies for improving patients’ awareness of chronic kidney disease. My research shows that patients with early-stage chronic kidney disease are not getting timely information from their health care providers about how to prevent the condition from worsening.

    Here’s what you need to know to keep your kidneys healthy:

    What do your kidneys do, and what happens when they fail?

    Kidneys have multiple functions, but their most critical and unglamorous job is filtering waste out of the body. When your kidneys are working well, they get rid of everyday by-products from your normal metabolism by creating urine. They also help keep your blood pressure stable, your electrolytes balanced and your red blood cell production pumping.

    The kidneys work hard around the clock. Over time, they can become damaged by acute experiences like severe dehydration, or acquire chronic damage from years of high blood pressure or high blood sugar. Sustained damage leads to chronically impaired kidney function, which can eventually progress to kidney failure.

    Kidneys that have failed stop producing urine, which prevents the body from eliminating fluids. This causes electrolytes like potassium and phosphate to build up to dangerous levels. The only effective treatments are to replace the work of the kidney with a procedure called dialysis or to receive a kidney transplant.

    Kidney transplants are the gold standard treatment, and most patients can be eligible to receive them. But unless they have a willing donor, they can spend an average of five years waiting for an available kidney.

    Most patients with kidney failure receive dialysis, which artificially replicates the kidneys’ job of filtering waste and removing fluid from the body. Dialysis treatment is extremely burdensome. Patients usually have to undergo the procedure multiple times per week, with each session taking several hours. And it comes with a major risk of death, disability and serious complications.

    If your kidneys aren’t working, dialysis can do their job for them.
    Picsfive via Getty Images

    What are the risk factors of chronic kidney disease?

    In the U.S., the biggest contributors to developing chronic kidney disease are high blood pressure and diabetes. Up to 40% of people with diabetes and as many as 30% of people with high blood pressure develop chronic kidney disease.

    The problem is, as with high blood pressure, people with early-stage chronic kidney disease almost never experience symptoms. Clinicians can test a patient’s overall kidney function using a measure called the estimated glomerular filtration rate. Current guidelines recommend that everyone – particularly people with risk factors like high blood pressure and diabetes – get their kidney function routinely tested to ensure the condition doesn’t progress silently.

    Early treatment for kidney disease often relies on managing high blood pressure and diabetes. New medications called SGLT2 inhibitors, originally developed to treat diabetes, may be able to directly protect the kidneys themselves, even in people who don’t have diabetes.

    Patients with early-stage kidney disease can benefit from knowing their kidney function scores and from treatment innovations like SGLT2 inhibitors, but only if they are successfully diagnosed and can discuss treatment options during routine visits with their health care providers.

    What are some barriers to early treatment?

    Early treatment for chronic kidney disease often gets overlooked during routine clinical care. In fact, as many as one-third of patients with kidney failure have no record of health care treatment for their kidneys in the early stages of their disease.

    Even if a diagnosis for chronic kidney disease is noted in a patient’s medical record, their provider might not discuss it with them: As few as 10% of people with the disease are aware that they have it.

    That’s partly due to the constraints of the U.S. health care system. The diagnosis, treatment and monitoring of early-stage chronic kidney disease occurs mostly in the primary care setting. However, primary care visit time is limited by insurance company reimbursement policies. Especially with patients who have multiple health problems, doctors may prioritize more noticeably pressing concerns.

    Chronic kidney disease can progress silently over many years.

    The result is that many clinicians put off addressing chronic kidney disease until symptoms emerge or test results worsen, often leaving early-stage patients undiagnosed and poorly informed about the disease. Research shows that people who are nonwhite, female and of lower socioeconomic status or education level are most likely to fall into this gap.

    But patients are eager for this knowledge, according to a study I co-authored. I interviewed patients who had early-stage kidney disease about their experiences receiving care. In their responses, patients expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of information they received from their health care providers and voiced a strong interest in learning more about the disease.

    As kidney disease progresses to the later stages, patients get treated by kidney specialists called nephrologists, who provide patients with targeted treatment and more robust education. But by the time patients progress to late-stage disease or even kidney failure, many symptoms can’t be reversed and the disease is much harder to manage.

    How can patients take charge of kidney health?

    People who are at risk for chronic kidney disease or who have developed early-stage disease can take several steps to minimize the chances that it will progress to kidney failure.

    First, patients can ask their doctors about chronic kidney disease, especially if they have risk factors such as high blood pressure or diabetes. Studies show that patients who ask questions, make requests and raise concerns with their provider during their health care visit have better health outcomes and are more satisfied with their care.

    Some specific questions to ask include “Am I at risk of developing chronic kidney disease?” and “Have I been tested for chronic kidney disease?” To help patients start these conversations at the doctor’s office, researchers are working to develop digital tools that visually represent a patient’s kidney disease test results and risks. These graphics can be incorporated into patients’ medical records to help spur conversations during a health care visit about their kidney health.

    Studies show that patients with chronic kidney disease who have a formal diagnosis in their medical records receive better care in line with current treatment guidelines and experience slower disease progression. Such patients can ask, “How quickly is my chronic kidney disease progressing?” and “How can I monitor my test results?” They may also want to ask, “What is my treatment plan for my chronic kidney disease?” and “Should I be seeing a kidney specialist?”

    In our research, we saw that patients with chronic kidney disease who had seen a loved one experience dialysis treatment were especially motivated to stick with their treatment to prevent kidney failure.

    But even without the benefit of direct experience, the possibility of kidney failure may motivate patients to follow their health care providers’ recommendations to eat a healthy diet, get regular physical activity and take their medications as prescribed.

    Eleanor Rivera receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. She is affiliated with the National Kidney Foundation and the Department of Veterans Affairs.

    – ref. Chronic kidney disease often goes undiagnosed, but early detection can prevent severe outcomes – https://theconversation.com/chronic-kidney-disease-often-goes-undiagnosed-but-early-detection-can-prevent-severe-outcomes-250744

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Foreign aid cuts could mean 10 million more HIV infections by 2030 – and almost 3 million extra deaths

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Rowan Martin-Hughes, Senior Research Fellow, Burnet Institute

    CI Photos/Shutterstock

    In January, the Trump administration ordered a broad pause on all US funding for foreign aid.

    Among other issues, this has significant effects on US funding for HIV. The United States has been the world’s biggest donor to international HIV assistance, providing 73% of funding in 2023.

    A large part of this is the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR), which oversees programs in low- and middle-income countries to prevent, diagnose and treat the virus. These programs have been significantly disrupted.

    What’s more, recent funding cuts for international HIV assistance go beyond the US. Five countries that provide the largest amount of foreign aid for HIV – the US, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Netherlands – have announced cuts of between 8% and 70% to international aid in 2025 and 2026.

    Together, this may mean a 24% reduction in international HIV spending, in addition to the US foreign aid pause.

    We wanted to know how these cuts might affect HIV infections and deaths in the years to come. In a new study, we found the worst-case scenario could see more than 10 million extra infections than what we’d otherwise anticipate in the next five years, and almost 3 million additional deaths.

    What is HIV?

    HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) is a virus that attacks the body’s immune system. HIV can be transmitted at birth, during unprotected sex or thorough blood-to-blood contact such as shared needles.

    If left untreated, HIV can progress to AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome), a condition in which the immune system is severely damaged, and which can be fatal.

    HIV was the world’s deadliest infectious disease in the early 1990s. There’s still no cure for HIV, but modern treatments allow the virus to be suppressed with a daily pill. People with HIV who continue treatment can live without symptoms and don’t risk infecting others.

    A sustained global effort towards awareness, prevention, testing and treatment has reduced annual new HIV infections by 39% (from 2.1 million in 2010 to 1.3 million in 2023), and annual deaths by 51% (from 1.3 million to 630,000).

    Most of that drop happened in sub-Saharan Africa, where the epidemic was worst. Today, nearly two-thirds of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, and nearly all live in low- and middle-income countries.

    HIV can be diagnosed with a simple blood test.
    MaryBeth Semosky/Shutterstock

    Our study

    We wanted to estimate the impact of recent funding cuts from the US, UK, France, Germany and the Netherlands on HIV infections and deaths. To do this, we used our mathematical model for 26 low- and middle-income countries. The model includes data on international HIV spending as well as data on HIV cases and deaths.

    These 26 countries represent roughly half of all people living with HIV in low- and middle income countries, and half of international HIV spending. We set up each country model in collaboration with national HIV/AIDS teams, so the data sources reflected the best available local knowledge. We then extrapolated our findings from the 26 countries we modelled to all low- and middle-income countries.

    For each country, we first projected the number of new HIV infections and deaths that would occur if HIV spending stayed the same.

    Second, we modelled scenarios for anticipated cuts based on a 24% reduction in international HIV funding for each country.

    Finally, we modelled scenarios for the possible immediate discontinuation of PEPFAR in addition to other anticipated cuts.

    With the 24% cuts and PEPFAR discontinued, we estimated there could be 4.43 million to 10.75 million additional HIV infections between 2025 and 2030, and 770,000 to 2.93 million extra HIV-related deaths. Most of these would be because of cuts to treatment. For children, there could be up to an additional 882,400 infections and 119,000 deaths.

    In the more optimistic scenario in which PEPFAR continues but 24% is still cut from international HIV funding, we estimated there could be 70,000 to 1.73 million extra new HIV infections and 5,000 to 61,000 additional deaths between 2025 and 2030. This would still be 50% higher than if current spending were to continue.

    The wide range in our estimates reflects low- and middle-income countries committing to far more domestic funding for HIV in the best case, or broader health system dysfunction and a sustained gap in funding for HIV treatment in the worst case.

    Some funding for HIV treatment may be saved by taking that money from HIV prevention efforts, but this would have other consequences.

    The range also reflects limitations in the available data, and uncertainty within our analysis. But most of our assumptions were cautious, so these results likely underestimate the true impacts of funding cuts to HIV programs globally.

    Sending progress backwards

    If funding cuts continue, the world could face higher rates of annual new HIV infections by 2030 (up to 3.4 million) than at the peak of the global epidemic in 1995 (3.3 million).

    Sub-Saharan Africa will experience by far the greatest effects due to the high proportion of HIV treatment that has relied on international funding.

    In other regions, we estimate vulnerable groups such as people who inject drugs, sex workers, men who have sex with men, and trans and gender diverse people may experience increases in new HIV infections that are 1.3 to 6 times greater than the general population.

    The Asia-Pacific received US$591 million in international funding for HIV in 2023, which is the second highest after sub-Saharan Africa. So this region would likely experience a substantial rise in HIV as a result of anticipated funding cuts.

    Notably, more than 10% of new HIV infections among people born in Australia are estimated to have been acquired overseas. More HIV in the region is likely to mean more HIV in Australia.

    But concern is greatest for countries that are most acutely affected by HIV and AIDS, many of which will be most affected by international funding cuts.

    Rowan Martin-Hughes receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. He has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    Debra ten Brink has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    Nick Scott receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. He has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.

    – ref. Foreign aid cuts could mean 10 million more HIV infections by 2030 – and almost 3 million extra deaths – https://theconversation.com/foreign-aid-cuts-could-mean-10-million-more-hiv-infections-by-2030-and-almost-3-million-extra-deaths-253017

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: First year of Georgia’s ‘foreign agent’ law shows how autocracies are replicating Russian model − and speeding up the time frame

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Anastasiya Zavyalova, Associate Professor of Strategic Management, Rice University

    Demonstrators protest the foreign influence law in front of the Georgian Parliament building on May 28, 2024. Nicolo Vincenzo Malvestuto/Getty Images

    Autocracy is on the move worldwide and becoming more resilient.

    One of the driving forces behind this phenomenon is something scholars call “authoritarian learning,” a process by which autocratic leaders study each other and adapt tactics based on what appears to work, and how to proceed when they encounter resistance.

    Take Georgia. The ruling Georgian Dream party has steered the Caucasus nation from a path toward democracy back to autocracy – and it has done so by learning from Russia. In particular, it adopted a “foreign agent” law in May 2024 – legislation that came straight from Vladimir Putin’s playbook.

    Sold to the public as increasing transparency, the legislation has been utilized to persecute Georgia’s opposition and arrest dissidents with impunity.

    As researchers examining the structure and effects of autocratic regimes, we view Georgia’s first year of its foreign agent law as an example of how politicians are not only learning the tactics of Russian authoritarianism but improving on them in a shorter time frame.

    Bouncing from Europe to Russia

    Georgia’s current ruling party came to power after then-President Mikheil Saakashvili enacted a major series of reforms in the 2000s. Saakashvili, who was jailed in 2021 under highly contested charges, inherited a Georgia seen as a failing and corrupt state tethered to Russia.

    The reform-minded politicians of Saakashvili’s government set the country on a pro-Western path. But after Russia’s invasion of Georgia in 2008, a socially conservative coalition under the banner Georgian Dream won the parliamentary elections in 2012.

    Georgian Dream was buoyed by the fortune of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, a Russian citizen until 2011. The party capitalized on the public’s fatigue after a decade of Saakashvili’s necessary but intense reforms. The new coalition married a promise for continuing the pro-Western reforms, but with a more traditional, conservative approach to social issues.

    This appeal to traditional Georgian values won support in rural communities and carried the coalition to an absolute majority in Parliament in 2016. Since then, Georgian Dream has adopted pro-Russian rhetoric, accusing a “global war party” of running the West. Increasing attacks on the European Union, in particular, have been a part of a broader strategy to bring Georgia back into Russia’s orbit.

    The Georgian Dream progression in power has mirrored that of Putin in Russia. In 2012, Putin signed a “foreign agents” law that originally targeted NGOs receiving foreign funding and alleged to be engaged in political activity.

    The Kremlin equated this law to the 1938 Foreign Agents Registration Act, or FARA, in the United States, and justified it as a means to increase transparency around foreign involvement in Russia’s internal affairs.

    Unlike FARA, however, Russia’s version of the law neither required establishing a connection between foreign funding and political activity nor provided a clear definition of political activity.

    This vagueness allowed for a wide range of NGOs deemed undesirable by the Kremlin to be labeled as “foreign agents.” The result was the suppression of NGO activities through financial, administrative and legal burdens that led to their liquidation or departure from the country.

    Over the years, this law has reduced Russian civil society’s ability to independently voice and address issues that its population faces.

    Yearlong slide into autocracy

    Georgian Dream passed a very similar foreign agent law on May 28, 2024, after overcoming a presidential veto. It forced NGOs receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register with the Ministry of Justice as “serving the interests of a foreign power.”

    Activists opposing the law have been physically assaulted, and the law has been utilized against what the ruling party has described as “LGBT propaganda.”

    The law fits a wider political landscape in which the ruling party has moved to restrict freedom of the press, prosecuted political opponents and postponed Georgia’s European Union candidate status despite the overwhelming majority of Georgians being pro-EU.

    Protestors take part in a pro-European rally in Warsaw, Poland, on April 30, 2024.
    Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images

    Improving on Russian authoritarians

    Three critical factors played a role in allowing for the foreign agent law in Russia to expand its reach: the power imbalance between the Russian government and NGOs, limited action by international authorities, and delayed media attention to the issue.

    At the time the law was passed, civil society inside Russia itself was split. Some foresaw the dangers of the law and engaged in collective action to oppose it, while others chose to wait and see.

    As it happened, the law and the accompanying repressive apparatus spread to a broader range of targets. In 2015, Putin signed a law that designated an “undesirable” status to foreign organizations “on national security grounds”; in 2017, an amendment expanded the targets of the law from NGOs to mass media outlets; and at the end of 2019, the law allowed the classification of individuals and unregistered public associations – that is, groups of individuals – as mass media acting as foreign agents. By July 2022, the foreign funding criterion was excluded and a status of a foreign agent could be designated to anyone whom the Russian authorities deemed to be “under foreign influence.”

    Russia’s experience highlights the process of early stages of authoritarian consolidation, when state power quashes independent sources of power, and political groups and citizens either rally around the government or go silent. The foreign agent law in Russia was passed only after the protests that accompanied the 2012 elections, which returned Putin to the presidency for the third term.

    In Georgia, the ruling government borrowed from Russia’s lead – after backing down from its first attempt to pass a foreign agent law in the face of massive protests, it pushed it through before the elections.

    The law was then used to raid NGOs sympathetic to the opposition days before the October 2024 parliamentary election. Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said before the elections that in the event of Georgian Dream’s victory, it would look to outlaw the pro-Western opposition, naming them “criminal political forces.”

    In the wake of President Donald Trump’s suspension of USAID assistance in February 2025, Georgian Dream has seized the opportunity to expand its war on civil society, echoing Russian, Chinese and American far-right conspiracy rhetoric that foreign-funded NGOs were fomenting revolution. To combat such phantoms, Georgian Dream has passed new legislation that criminalizes assembly and protest.

    A springboard for repression

    The foreign agent law has been a springboard for repressive activities in both Russia and Georgia, but while it took Russia a decade to effectively use the law to crush any opposition, Georgian Dream is working on an expedited timetable.

    Although the EU has suspended direct assistance and closed off visa-free travel for Georgian officials as a result of the law, Trump’s turn toward pro-Russian policies has made it more difficult to obtain Western consensus in dislodging the Georgian government from its authoritarian drift.

    Georgia’s experience, following the Russian playbook, illustrates how authoritarians are learning from each other, utilizing the rule of law itself against democracy.

    Christopher A. Hartwell has received funding from the Institute for Humane Studies and the Swiss National Science Foundation.

    Anastasiya Zavyalova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. First year of Georgia’s ‘foreign agent’ law shows how autocracies are replicating Russian model − and speeding up the time frame – https://theconversation.com/first-year-of-georgias-foreign-agent-law-shows-how-autocracies-are-replicating-russian-model-and-speeding-up-the-time-frame-250878

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Myanmar’s civil war: How shifting US-Russia ties could tip balance and hand China a greater role

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Tharaphi Than, Associate Professor of World Cultures and Languages, Northern Illinois University

    Myanmar’s civil war involves a range of different ethnic groups fighting the military. Thierry Falise/LightRocket via Getty Images

    While the United States talked military assistance and minerals with Ukraine, Russia did the same with one of its few remaining allies: Myanmar.

    On March 4, 2025, the commander in chief and leader of Myanmar, Min Aung Hlaing, visited Russia. It was his fourth official visit since a coup in 2021 saw the military seize power.

    That coup ended a decade-long power-sharing arrangement between the army and the democratically elected government in Myanmar, sparking peaceful protests that soon developed into a nationwide armed resistance known as the Spring Revolution and an ensuing government crackdown.

    The resulting civil war – now into its fourth year – has seen 6,000-plus people killed, 29,000 arrested and more than 3.3 million displaced, according to estimates from the human rights group Assistance Association for Political Prisoners. The conflict pits the country’s military, which has had a stranglehold on Myanmar’s politics for much of the past six decades, against a broad-based opposition that includes ethnic minority groups like the Karen National Union, Kachin Independence Army, Arakan Army, Ta’ang National Liberation Army, Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, People’s Defense Force and Bamar People’s Liberation Army.

    With seemingly no immediate end to the fighting in sight, all sides are becoming increasingly reliant on foreign suppliers of weapons and fuel.

    And this prompts an important question: Could the shifting policies and alignments of global powers – notably China, Russia and the U.S. – tip the balance of Myanmar’s civil war?

    Russia: Myanmar’s ‘forever friend’

    Throughout the civil war, Myanmar’s generals have turned to Russia for support. Both nations are heavily sanctioned and seen as “pariah states,” so it is, in many ways, a convenient alignment.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin greets Myanmar Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing on March 4, 2025, in Moscow, Russia.
    Getty Images

    In his latest visit to Moscow, Min Aung Hlaing granted Russia rights to extract minerals in Myanmar’s conflict zones and build an oil refinery and a port in the coastal city Dawei.

    Russia has exported oil to Myanmar for many decades. Since the invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has been using the Southeast Asian country as a route to transport oil to China in an attempt to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions on energy exports. Myanmar has also agreed to supply skilled workers to Russia in a deal to alleviate the country’s labor shortages.

    This mutual arrangement also extends to defense and security matters. Myanmar and Russia engage in joint naval exercises, and Moscow is a top supplier of weapons to Myanmar’s generals and trains personnel for the military government.

    But any diplomatic benefit from having Russia as a sponsor has been blunted due to Moscow’s loss of international support over the war in Ukraine. Should that change, as the new U.S. administration seems keen on, then it could benefit Myanmar’s military by giving the generals a stronger ally on the international stage.

    As such, warming relations between Russia and the U.S. could be to the detriment of Myanmar’s myriad opposition groups. Already, the Trump administration’s policies mean that the resistance can no longer rely on the same level of support from Washington, and it’s no guarantee that European Union countries – already facing the prospect of withdrawn U.S. support for Ukraine – would step in to fill the gap.

    US pivots away from Myanmar

    Washington has nominally supported the Spring Revolution.

    The U.S. provides shelter to Myanmar dissidents, including exiled leaders of the National Unity Government, or NUG, and has pushed for sanctions against the army.

    But that support has been largely symbolic. The U.S. still has not officially recognized the NUG as the legitimate government of Myanmar – a decision that prevents Washington from releasing US$1 billion held at the Federal Reserve to the democratic representatives. That money could be used both to bolster the resistance and deliver much-needed aid to the country’s people.

    U.S. foreign policy as it evolves under the Trump administration is having further ripples in Myanmar.

    The Trump White House has gutted the U.S. Agency for International Development, the department tasked with funding Myanmar through 2023’s Burma Act, which authorized sanctions on the military, support for those opposing the junta and assistance for Myanmar’s people.

    Services such as Voice of America and Radio Free Asia have been suspended amid the recent U.S. cutbacks. As a result, people in Myanmar have more-limited access to reliable information and, more importantly, fewer media to represent and amplify their voices.

    Whether the U.S. chooses to continue to support the opposition or engage with the military government and endorse Myanmar elections expected for later this year could have wide implications for the future of democracy in the country.

    U.S. President Barack Obama encouraged Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi to take part in elections.
    Soe Than Win/AFP via Getty Images

    Myanmar has witnessed such a U.S. reversal before.

    For a long period, Washington supported the opposition’s boycott of elections that guaranteed the power to the military. But in 2009, the U.S. administration under Barack Obama sent a message to the National League for Democracy (NLD), which at the time was under the leadership of now-imprisoned Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, that Washington would recognize the military’s elections as part of a policy of “pragmatic engagement” with the then-ruling junta.

    It forced the recalcitrant NLD to cooperate by entering the 2012 by-elections – the first time it had taken part in elections since 1990.

    Although the NLD won a sweeping victory – and went on to win the 2015 national vote – it meant giving legitimacy to a system rigged in favor of the military, with a quarter of parliamentary seats reserved for officers. Given that 75% approval was needed for any constitutional reform, it meant that the NLD could form a government but could only make decisions with the consent of the still-powerful generals.

    The political situation now is different from 2012. The yearslong resistance has weakened the military significantly. And even if the NUG, which consists of member of the NLD and other political parties, does feel compelled to participate in elections, the various other resistance groups and ethnic armies will likely choose otherwise. Regional autonomy has become a reality as a result of the decentralized nature of the resistance movement; elections will not satisfy the various demands for autonomy.

    Chinese push for stability

    The U.S. administration’s reduction in aid and, potentially, support for Myanmar’s opposition could lead the way to China taking a greater role in shaping the course of the civil war.

    Beijing, like Washington, had traditionally had a close relationship with the opposition NLD. President Xi Jinping visited Myanmar in 2020 and signed a series of infrastructure deals as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

    After the 2021 coup, China initially drew back from supporting Myanmar. But Beijing has since attempted to revive stalled or canceled bilateral projects while supporting reconciliation efforts and positioning itself as a neutral mediator.

    China’s main concern is spillover from the war. For that reason, Beijing became concerned when an alliance of armed ethnic groups launched a major anti-military push in October 2023, fearing the spread of instability across the China-Myanmar border.

    Since the civil war broke out, Chinese investments in Myanmar have stalled. Meanwhile, lawlessness inside Myanmar has led to the growth of mostly Chinese-run online scam centers – victims of which include Chinese citizens who have been kidnapped, trafficked and forced to work as scammers.

    What China wants most is a stable Myanmar. Yet its chosen strategy to try to bring this about – forcing warring parties to sign ceasefire agreements – hasn’t worked so far.

    This could change. The reduction of U.S. aid in Myanmar places an additional burden on ethnic resistance groups – they now have to shoulder more of the burden of providing for the people while fighting for autonomy. As such, resistance groups might be under greater urgency to accept China’s role as a mediator. And with that changed calculus, the imperative to find a negotiated solution may increase.

    But a rushed ceasefire born of necessity does not equate to a lasting solution. As such, the shifting geopolitics of Russia, the U.S. and China may impact Myanmar’s civil war – but it will do little to encourage democracy in the country, nor put it on a path to lasting peace.

    Tharaphi Than does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Myanmar’s civil war: How shifting US-Russia ties could tip balance and hand China a greater role – https://theconversation.com/myanmars-civil-war-how-shifting-us-russia-ties-could-tip-balance-and-hand-china-a-greater-role-251782

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tobacco excise revenue has tanked amid a booming black market. That’s a diabolical problem for the government

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fei Gao, Lecturer in Taxation, Discipline of Accounting, Governance & Regulation, The University of Sydney, University of Sydney

    Tuesday night’s federal budget revealed a sharp drop in what was once a major source of revenue for the government – the tobacco excise.

    This financial year, the government expects to earn revenue from the tobacco excise of A$7.4 billion. That’s down sharply from $12.6 billion in 2022–23, and an earlier peak of $16.3 billion in 2019–20.

    The government expects this downward trend to continue. Australia’s heavy tobacco taxation has driven many consumers towards illicit cigarettes.

    But this is more than just a problem for government coffers accustomed to revenue from the tobacco tax.

    It presents a major challenge for a public health policy that has long relied on increasing tobacco excise duty as its primary tool to reduce smoking.



    Read more:
    The 2025 budget has few savings and surprises but it also ignores climate change

    Climbing tax rates, falling revenue

    If government revenue from tobacco is falling, it isn’t because we aren’t trying to tax it. Cigarette prices in Australia are among the highest in the world, with taxes making up a substantial chunk of the price.

    About $1.40 of the cost of each cigarette represents excise duty. GST is payable on top of that.

    Australia’s tobacco excise is indexed every March and September, in line with average weekly ordinary-time earnings.

    On top of indexation, the excise rate is currently being increased by
    an additional 5% each year, for a period of three years that began in September 2023.

    This policy is grounded in the principle that higher costs deter smoking.
    And smoking rates have fallen in recent decades. About 8% of Australians aged 14 and over still smoke daily, down from almost 20% in 2001.

    Some of that fall has been offset by the rapid ascent of vaping. About 7% of Australians use e-cigarettes – about half of whom vape daily.

    But while legal cigarette prices are prohibitively high for some, illegal alternatives are widely available and significantly cheaper. That’s because these unregulated products bypass excise and GST entirely.

    Vaping has soared in popularity as an alternative to smoking.
    Natali Brillianata/Shutterstock

    Unintended consequences

    The estimated value of illicit tobacco entering the Australian market has soared, from $980 million in 2016–17 to more than $6 billion in 2022–23. Of this $6 billion, almost $3 billion entered the market undetected.

    The actual decline in tobacco excise revenue, as exposed in the latest budget papers, has been much more significant than previously forecast.

    To make things worse, the cost of enforcement is rising. The 2025–26 federal budget allocates an additional $156 million over the next two years to combat illicit tobacco — on top of the $188 million committed in the previous budget.

    There are other broader impacts on overall tax revenue. Convenience stores lose legitimate sales to illegal tobacco vendors, resulting in less corporate tax income.

    Holding back broader public health efforts

    On other measures, Australia has long been a global leader in tobacco control. The first health warnings on cigarette packets appeared in 1973.

    In 2006, graphic health warnings were introduced. And in 2011, Australia pioneered plain packaging laws.

    Such public health measures are set to get even stronger this year, with new requirements for every individual cigarette sold to have an “on-product” health warning such as “causes 16 cancers” or “shortens your life”.

    These new regulations come into effect on April 1 2025, but retailers will have a three-month transition period to phase out existing stock.

    The tight transition period may prove challenging for the legitimate cigarette trade.

    But it is unlikely those who ply the unlawful trade in illegal tobacco – or their customers – will be particularly bothered by this latest attempt to wean the public off the habit.

    No easy solution

    The increasing heavy tobacco excise and the new law requiring warning messages on individual cigarettes have the potential to reduce tobacco consumption among those who purchase the product legally.

    However, suppliers of black-market cigarettes – who now comprise an estimated 18% of market share – are unlikely to allow this initiative to affect their illegal trade.

    The widespread move to vaping, with poor regulation, has further fuelled the black market for both products.

    It is going too far to draw parallels with the prohibition era in the United States, when the manufacture, transportation and sale of alcohol was illegal. This was a brief but disastrous experiment in social engineering with unfortunate and, in retrospect, arguably predictable consequences.

    But there are some unfortunate similarities when it comes to Australia’s tobacco tax policy, which has inadvertently encouraged black markets, criminality and organised crime.

    Yet for the government, lowering the excise tax to encourage smokers back to legal cigarettes would be completely out of step with its public health objectives. Legal or illegal, black-market cigarettes and vapes still contribute to health risks, undermining the public health goals behind regulatory controls.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tobacco excise revenue has tanked amid a booming black market. That’s a diabolical problem for the government – https://theconversation.com/tobacco-excise-revenue-has-tanked-amid-a-booming-black-market-thats-a-diabolical-problem-for-the-government-253329

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Coalition has promised $400m for youth mental health. Young people told us what they need

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bridianne O’Dea, Little Heroes Professor of Child and Adolescent Mental Health, Flinders University

    Ground Picture/Shutterstock

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has promised a Coalition government would spend an extra A$400 million on youth mental health services.

    This is in addition to raising the number of subsidised psychology sessions from ten to 20, which had been previously announced.

    While extra funding for youth mental health is welcome, it’s important to target this in ways that will make a real difference to young people.

    In our recent research, we asked young people about their experiences of waiting for mental health support, how they coped in the meantime, and what would really make a difference while they waited.

    Rates of mental illness rising

    An estimated one in seven Australian children and adolescents had a mental illness in the past 12 months. Rates of mental illness have also increased over time, particularly among younger generations.

    The COVID pandemic led to a rapid rise in the number of children and young people seeing their GP for mental health problems. Visits for depression rose by 61% and eating disorders by 56% compared with before the pandemic.

    The number of visits to the emergency department in New South Wales for self-harm, or plans or thoughts about suicide, have also increased since COVID.

    The annual Mission Australia Survey reveals young Australians see mental health as one of their biggest challenges, with thousands calling for more support.

    But there are long waits for care

    Despite the greater demand for mental health treatment in Australia, there is very little information on how long young people wait to access it.

    The Australian Psychological Society reported that during the pandemic, 88% of psychologists increased their wait times and one in five were not taking on new clients. This meant about half of people waited more than three months to begin psychological treatment. But this is for clients of all ages.

    There is also little information on how young people experience the wait for treatment.

    We asked young people about the wait for care

    We recently published research on the wait times for mental health treatment for Australian teens.

    We asked 375 young people aged 13–17 about the mental health care they have tried to access for their anxiety and depression and how long they waited to start treatment. We also asked them about their mental health while they waited, what helped them cope, and the types of support they received.

    We found that on average, teens were waiting more than three months for their first session of treatment. Most teens waited to access psychologists and psychiatrists after a GP referral.

    While their wait times varied, nearly all teens felt they waited “too long”.

    Longer wait times were linked to poorer mental health, with more than 90% of teens reporting high distress while they waited. Many of the teens felt their feelings of worry and sadness had worsened and they had used risky and unhealthy ways to cope, such as spending more time alone, sleeping more, self-harming, and using alcohol and other drugs.

    Most teens did not receive any support from their health-care providers during the wait time, despite wanting it.

    One female 17-year-old had waited six months for treatment and told us:

    It felt like I was hanging over a cliff and was just told to hold on.

    Teens also felt their parents would benefit from greater support during the wait time. But we need more research to better understand how to help families.

    Together, these findings show we desperately need to address wait times for young people’s mental health treatment.

    Teens know the support they need

    If teens are to wait for mental health treatment, they told us they need support while they do so.

    Young people wanted more regular contact and “check-ins” from their service providers, someone to talk to during the wait, as well as more useful information on positive ways to cope.

    Most teens in our study used digital mental health tools – such as mental health websites, online mental health checks, mobile apps, online chat services and forums – while they waited.

    We’re developing digital mental health tools, in consultation with young people and GPs, to support doctors to care for their teen patients when treatment isn’t available right away. We’re testing the system of short digital mental health programs, supportive text messages and peer support in NSW this year.

    But not all teens we surveyed found digital mental health tools helpful. So we need to offer teens a range of supports – from their family, their GP, and from their referred service provider – to help them cope while they wait for treatment.

    What can governments do?

    We must carefully consider when, where and how mental health funds are invested. If governments wish to see more young people treated for their mental health problems, then we need to look at how our health-care system will cope with the growing demand.

    We also need national, transparent benchmarks for how long young Australians wait for mental health treatment. Only some health services in Australia have this. Other countries, such as the United Kingdom, have something similar to minimise the health risks of young people waiting too long for care.

    Ultimately, though, we need to prevent mental health issues from starting in the first place. That would reduce the need for treatment, the very type young Australians are waiting too long for.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800 or Lifeline on 13 11 14.

    Bridianne O’Dea is supported by a National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF) Investigator Fellowship (1197249) and a MRFF Millions Minds Mental Health Grant (2035416). Bridianne O’Dea received funding from the Buxton Family Foundation, Australian Unity, the Frontiers Technology Clinical Academic Group Industry Connection Seed Funding Scheme and the UNSW Medicine, Neuroscience, Mental Health and Addiction Theme and SPHERE Clinical Academic Group Collaborative Research Funding to conduct this research. Bridianne O’Dea is a member of the Australian Society for Mental Health Research and the International Society for Research on Internet Interventions. Bridianne O’Dea’s current work has received pro bono support from Deloitte Digital Australia.

    – ref. The Coalition has promised $400m for youth mental health. Young people told us what they need – https://theconversation.com/the-coalition-has-promised-400m-for-youth-mental-health-young-people-told-us-what-they-need-253328

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ants in your house? Here’s how they get everywhere – even high up in tall buildings

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tanya Latty, Associate Professor, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney

    Windy Soemara/Shutterstock

    Ants are among nature’s greatest success stories, with an estimated 22,000 species worldwide.

    Tropical Australia in particular is a global hotspot for ant diversity. Some researchers believe it could hold some of the richest ant biodiversity on the planet, with an estimated 5,000 species in the tropics alone.

    But if ants are so successful out in nature, why do they so often turn up in our homes and even upper-level apartments?

    And what can we do to keep them out?

    There’s probably an ant near you right now

    Ants dominate the planet in terms of sheer abundance.

    At any given moment, there are an estimated 20 quadrillion ants alive — that’s 20 followed by 15 zeros.

    In fact, for every human being, there are roughly 2.5 million ants.

    There are about 22,000 ant species worldwide. This one is called the Green tree ant (Oecophylla smaragdina).
    Tanya Latty

    So the short answer to “Why are there ants in my house?” is simply this: there are a lot of ants.

    We live on a planet where ants outnumber us by an almost unimaginable margin. The fact that a few occasionally wander into our homes shouldn’t come as a surprise.

    Ants work from home (yours, that is)

    Ants owe much of their success to their highly social nature.

    Within the colony, some individuals (female queens and male drones) are responsible for reproduction, while others (workers) are busy caring for the young, cleaning or foraging for food. Workers ants are always female.

    Ants may start off outside but at least some will probably eventually end up inside.
    Tanya Latty

    Ant colonies do not have leaders. They are an excellent example of collective behaviour and swarm intelligence, where individuals following relatively simple rules can collectively achieve far more than any individual could alone.

    Just as the individual neurons in your brain can’t compose music, play football, or read articles, the brain as a whole can achieve all these feats and more.

    Colonies of co-operating ants are capable of amazingly sophisticated behaviours such as:

    Ants even outperform humans on some cooperative cognition tasks.

    Credit: Wonder World.

    The highly social nature of ants is a big part of their success — and a key reason why they are so good at finding their way into our homes.

    Each colony contains thousands of intrepid workers, many of which are constantly searching for new food sources. If even a single ant discovers a valuable resource in your home, it can quickly share that information with its nest mates.

    Different ant species use different methods of communication, but the ones that most often invade our homes tend to use “pheromone trails”.

    When an ant finds a food source, she returns to her nest leaving little drops of pheromones as she goes; this trail guides other ants from their nest directly to the food source.

    This highly efficient communication system means a single ant can rapidly recruit thousands of its nest mates to any food it finds.

    Ants may also come inside in search of water, particularly when the weather is hot.

    Some species prefer to build their nests in humid environments, which might explain why they are often found in bathrooms.

    I once discovered an entire colony of sugar ants nesting inside my aquarium filter! The combination of high humidity and an enclosed structure made it an ideal place to build a nest.

    On the flip side, heavy rains can flood ant nests, prompting colonies to seek drier ground — sometimes leading them straight into our homes.

    Ants are incredible communicators.
    Dhe Tong/Shutterstock

    I live in an upper-floor apartment. How did ants get in?

    Many ant species are exceptional climbers, thanks to tiny adhesive pads and fine hairs on their feet.

    These specialised structures allow ants to stick to walls and find footholds even on surfaces that appear smooth to the human eye.

    Remarkably, some canopy-dwelling ants have evolved a behaviour known as “controlled descent” which protects them when they fall. By adjusting the position of their abdomens, falling ants can steer their trajectory, directing themselves back toward the tree trunk and safety.

    Ants often have tiny adhesive pads and fine hairs on their feet, which help them stick to walls.
    Mob_photo/Shutterstock

    How do I keep ants out of my house?

    Well, good luck. No matter what you do, ants will probably enter your house at one time or another.

    Finding a few ants in your home doesn’t mean your house is dirty. We simply live on a planet that is absolutely teeming with ants.

    To minimise unwanted ant visits, start by eliminating any potential food sources that could feed a hungry ant.

    Store all food in sealed airtight containers, clean behind the fridge and inside/under the toaster, avoid leaving pet food out longer than needed and make sure your bins are securely sealed.

    Ants have tiny stomachs, so even small crumbs or the residue from spilled sugary drinks can be enough to entice them back.

    If ants seem to be following each other in a line, try disrupting their chemical trail using vinegar or bleach. Be warned, however: ants are very good at repairing broken trail networks.

    Seal any small cracks or entrance points that might allow ants to get into your home and make sure your windows and doors have well-fitting fly screens.

    Insecticidal baits can kill ant colonies, but before you deploy the nuclear option, ask yourself: what harm are the ants really doing?

    Most common home-invading ants do not sting and are pretty harmless. They can usually be redirected simply by removing their food source.

    Ants are nature’s clean-up crew, tirelessly scavenging waste and helping to maintain a healthy, balanced ecosystem.

    They also play important roles as predators and seed dispersers.

    Before reaching for insecticides, consider whether a few ants in your house are truly a problem.

    Tanya Latty co-founded and volunteers for conservation organisation Invertebrates Australia, is former president of the Australasian Society for the Study of Animal Behaviour and is on the Education committee for the Australian Entomological Society. She receives funding from the Australian Research Council, NSW Saving our Species, and Agrifutures Australia.

    – ref. Ants in your house? Here’s how they get everywhere – even high up in tall buildings – https://theconversation.com/ants-in-your-house-heres-how-they-get-everywhere-even-high-up-in-tall-buildings-250625

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Policy tracker: how will Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and the independents make Australia better?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Digital Storytelling Team, The Conversation, The Conversation

    The Conversation, CC BY-SA

    ➡️ View the full interactive version of this article here

    Digital Storytelling Team does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Policy tracker: how will Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and the independents make Australia better? – https://theconversation.com/policy-tracker-how-will-labor-the-coalition-the-greens-and-the-independents-make-australia-better-253345

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Travelling overseas? You could be at risk of measles. Here’s how to ensure you’re protected

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist; Clinical Researcher, University of Sydney

    Julia Suhareva/Shutterstock

    On March 26 NSW Health issued an alert advising people to be vigilant for signs of measles after an infectious person visited Sydney Airport and two locations in western New South Wales.

    The person recently returned from Southeast Asia where there are active measles outbreaks in several countries including Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia.

    The NSW alert follows a string of similar alerts issued around Australia in recent days and weeks.

    If you’re travelling overseas soon, you could be at risk of measles. Here’s what to know to ensure you’re protected.

    First, what is measles?

    Measles is one of the most contagious viral illnesses. It spreads through the air when a person breathes, coughs or sneezes. On average, one person can infect 12 to 18 others who are not immune.

    Initial symptoms include fever, a runny nose, cough and conjunctivitis. Then a non-itchy rash usually starts around the hairline before spreading around the body.

    Measles is most common in children, and they’re also most vulnerable to getting very sick with the virus. Measles is severe in around one in ten children. Complications can include ear infection, diarrhoea and pneumonia, and, more rarely, encephalitis (brain swelling).

    However, adults can also catch and spread the disease, making up 10–20% of measles cases during outbreaks.

    Vaccination has saved millions of lives

    The first measles vaccine was licensed for public use in 1963, and it changed the trajectory of this disease. In the 21st century alone, measles vaccination is thought to have saved more than 60 million lives globally.

    The measles vaccine is free through Australia’s National Immunisation Program. It’s routinely given at 12 and 18 months of age. The first dose is combined with mumps and rubella (the MMR vaccine) and the second adds protection against chickenpox, or varicella (MMRV).

    False suggestions the measles vaccination is linked with disorders such as autism have been thoroughly disproven. The vaccine is very safe and highly effective.

    Measles is one of the most contagious viruses there is.
    fotohay/Shutterstock

    However, because the vaccine is made from a live virus, people with weakened immune systems (for example, those receiving chemotherapy for cancer or pregnant women) cannot have the vaccine even though they’re at higher risk of severe measles. Their safety depends on high community immunisation rates to reduce the spread of the virus.

    Because measles is so infectious, at least 95% of the population needs to be immune to prevent its spread.

    Immunity occurs from either two doses of measles vaccine or past infection. Measles vaccination was introduced in Australia in 1968. Most adults born before the mid-1960s would still be immune from a past infection. But vaccination is recommended for everyone else who is not immune.

    Immunity gaps are opening up

    Gaps in immunity to measles have opened up around the world due to challenges in delivering routine immunisations during the COVID pandemic, and, in some cases, reduced acceptance of vaccination.

    In 2023 only 83% of the world’s children received at least one dose of measles vaccine by their first birthday, down from 86% in 2019. This is not enough to halt spread.

    The withdrawal of US government funding from many global health programs, including a measles surveillance network that supports testing and outbreak responses, is throwing fuel on the fire.

    In Australia, small but progressive declines in the uptake of childhood vaccines over the past five years and immunity gaps in other age groups means our risk of outbreaks in increasing.

    Rates of childhood vaccination coverage have been declining slightly.
    Inna photographer/Shutterstock

    For example, coverage of the MMR vaccine at 24 months declined 0.4 percentage points between 2022 and 2023 (from 95.3% to 94.9% in Indigenous children and 95.1% to 94.7% in children overall).

    On-time vaccination rates – within 30 days of the recommended age – are also falling. The proportion of children who had their MMR vaccine on time dropped from 75.3% to 67.2% for non-Indigenous children and 64.7% to 56% for Indigenous children between 2020 and 2023.

    Measles outbreaks are increasing in Australia and across the world

    Measles cases are rapidly rising across the globe and more cases are arriving from overseas into Australia. So far in 2025, 37 cases have been reported compared to 57 in all of 2024, 26 in 2023 and seven in 2022. Most cases have been imported from overseas, but we’ve ascertained eight cases so far in 2025 were locally acquired.

    Many of the countries experiencing the largest measles outbreaks are popular travel destinations for Australians, including India, Thailand, Indonesia and Vietnam.

    But few countries are free of measles. The United States, Canada, the United Kingdom and various countries in Europe are all tackling outbreaks.

    As the incubation period – the gap between exposure and symptoms – is around seven to ten days, travellers may enter the country without knowing they’re about to become ill and potentially spread the virus to others.

    Protecting yourself and your family

    Although the usual age for the first measles dose is 12 months, the MMR vaccine can be given to babies as young as six months who are travelling to measles hotspots or during outbreaks.

    This early measles vaccine dose does not replace those given at 12 and 18 months, but will help protect the infant in the interim.

    It’s important all adults, particularly those planning overseas travel, know their vaccination or infection history. If you don’t, talk to your health-care provider about being vaccinated.

    Everyone who doesn’t have immunity from an infection should have two lifetime doses. Some adults, including those who have migrated from overseas, may have had none or only one dose when they were younger. If you’re unsure, there’s no harm in receiving a vaccine if you’ve had measles or have been fully vaccinated already.

    If you come back from overseas and need medical care, inform your health-care provider about your symptoms and recent travel before attending a clinic in person.

    Archana Koirala has worked on projects funded by the Australian Department of Health and Aged Care and NSW Health. She is the chair of Vaccination Special Interest Group and a committee member of Australian and New Zealand Paediatric Infectious Diseases Group of the Australasian Society of Infectious Diseases.

    Kristine Macartney is the Director of the Australian National Centre for Immunisation Research and Surveillance (NCIRS). NCIRS receives funding from the Australian government Department of Health and Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, NSW and other state and territory health departments, Gavi the Vaccine Alliance, the World Health Organization, the NHMRC, the MRFF and the Wellcome Trust.

    – ref. Travelling overseas? You could be at risk of measles. Here’s how to ensure you’re protected – https://theconversation.com/travelling-overseas-you-could-be-at-risk-of-measles-heres-how-to-ensure-youre-protected-252802

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is Australian bat lyssavirus? Can I catch it from bat poo? What if bats roost near me?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hamish McCallum, Emeritus Professor, infectious disease ecology, Griffith University

    Ken Griffiths/Shutterstock

    Last week, Queensland Health alerted the public about the risk of Australian bat lyssavirus, after a bat found near a school just north of Brisbane was given to a wildlife carer group.

    The bat later died, but it was not confirmed whether it carried the virus.

    This is not unusual. Volunteer wildlife carers respond to thousands of calls from the public every year after encountering sick, injured and orphaned bats. And testing them all routinely for the virus is not warranted or feasible.

    Here’s what you need to know about the risk of catching Australian bat lyssavirus and how it can be treated.

    What is bat lyssavirus?

    Australian bat lyssavirus belongs to the same group of viruses that includes rabies – one of the most notorious diseases humans can catch from animals. Rabies causes about 59,000 deaths worldwide a year, mainly after dog bites. It is almost always fatal once symptoms appear.

    Australian bat lyssavirus was discovered in 1996. There have been only three confirmed cases of the virus in humans in Australia, the most recent in 2013. All three were fatal.

    Fortunately, because Australian bat lyssavirus and rabies are so closely related, the preventative measures that have been developed internationally against rabies can also protect humans from the effects of Australian bat lyssavirus.

    Australian bat lyssavirus and rabies have a long incubation period (the period between exposure to infection and appearance of symptoms). If preventative treatments are given during the incubation period, they are highly effective in preventing disease and saving lives.

    Such treatment reduces what is already a very low risk of illness and death to effectively zero.

    Australian bat lyssavirus and rabies (pictured here) are closely related.
    nobeastsofierce/Shutterstock

    How could I be exposed to the virus?

    The virus is present in the saliva of some Australian bats, including the large flying foxes (fruit-eating bats) and some smaller bats that eat insects. But the proportion of bats infected by the virus is normally very low – less than 0.5%.

    Infected bats may become sick and die, but some may appear unaffected. In other words, you can’t always tell just by looking at a bat whether it’s infected or not. However, there is evidence the virus is present at a higher level in sick bats than in healthy ones.

    You cannot be exposed to the virus by being under a flying fox roost, even if the bats poo on you. You cannot be exposed by having bats in your roof or in a shed.

    No, you can’t catch Australian bat lyssavirus from bat poo.
    Anna Evangeli

    But the virus can be transferred to a human via either a scratch or bite. That’s if an infected bat scratches or bites you, or if their saliva is transmitted to an existing wound.

    So you do need to be careful if you come across a sick or injured bat, or you find a child playing with a bat.

    There is no evidence the virus regularly infects dogs and cats, although rabies does.

    Nevertheless, given that Australian bat lyssavirus is a close relative of rabies and that rabies will infect most mammals, the possibility that it may sometimes spill over to mammals other than humans cannot be eliminated.

    For example, in 2013 two horses in the same paddock became infected and had to be euthanised. The source of infection was not identified.

    So you should also seek advice if you see an animal such as a dog or cat play with a dead or injured bat. Contact a wildlife care group for advice about the bat and a vet to discuss post-exposure treatment for your pet.

    If your dog plays with a dead or injured bat, seek advice from your veterinarian to be on the safe side.
    Lazy_Bear/Shutterstock

    How great is the risk?

    It is important to put the risk posed by Australian bat lyssavirus into perspective.

    Although each of the three deaths known to have been caused by the virus since 1996 is tragic, in 2017-2018 alone, 12 people in Australia died from
    bee or wasp stings.

    Bats play an important role in our ecosystems. Without the pollination and pest control services bats provide, our increasingly fragmented native forests would struggle to recover after fires, and we’d need to use more pesticides on our crops. There is also no evidence bat lyssaviruses are increasing in Australian bat populations.

    Is the risk to humans changing?

    However, as we encroach upon natural habitats via land clearing we are likely to have increased contact with wildlife, including bats.

    Mass mortality events in bats in Australia – such as those in recent years caused by extreme heat or bat paralysis syndrome (thought to be caused by bats ingesting an environmental toxin) – are likely to lead to increased contact between people, their pets and vulnerable bats.

    The risk to human health is therefore likely increasing, albeit from a very low level.

    What should I do?

    First, don’t panic. Infection is extraordinarily rare and will continue to be so.

    Second, don’t interfere with bat populations. Do not pick up sick or injured bats and do not allow your children or pets to play with them. Keep your pets inside at night to minimise potential contact with bats.

    Third, if you or a member of your family is bitten or scratched by a bat, or suspect you have been, seek medical attention, including post-exposure treatment. People who regularly handle bats, such as wildlife carers or researchers, should be vaccinated in advance. They are also trained to handle bats safely and use appropriate personal protection equipment.

    If you find a sick or injured bat, contact your local wildlife rehabilitation group or veterinarian.

    Hamish McCallum receives funding from the US NSF and fron the EU Horizons program. His work on bat virus disease ecology has previously been funded by the US NSF and DARPA

    Alison Peel receives funding from the US NIH. Her work on bat virus disease ecology has previously been funded by the ARC, US NSF and DARPA

    Cinthia is a volunteer wildlife carer for a not-for-profit organisation based in Southeast Queensland that works with bats.

    – ref. What is Australian bat lyssavirus? Can I catch it from bat poo? What if bats roost near me? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-australian-bat-lyssavirus-can-i-catch-it-from-bat-poo-what-if-bats-roost-near-me-252632

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Gavin Ellis: Forensic detail on NZME but where are the guarantees?

    Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. –

    KNIGHTLY VIEWS: By Gavin Ellis

    Excoriating is the word that may best describe expat Canadian James Grenon’s 11-page critique of NZME. His forensic examination of the board he hopes to replace and the company’s performance is a sobering read.

    You may not have seen the letter. At the time of writing, it was still sitting behind The New Zealand Herald’s Premium paywall. It is, however, available through the New Zealand Stock Exchange. You can access it here.

    Grenon is highly critical in a number of areas that he breaks down into sections in the letter. The headings include:

    “The combined performance of the two core businesses has been mediocre, to sliding, for the past eight years, despite a temporary period of covid gains.”

    “There has been a consistent pattern of over promising and under delivering since covid.”

    “Public disclosure is weak, with a slant that I interpret as supporting the status quo.”

    Grenon’s letter includes an analysis of NZME’s share price in relation to the perceived value of its OneRoof real estate marketing arm, and the company’s dividend policy. He claims “the disclosure on these two critical elements is, in my opinion, lacking or even misleading”. He also criticises levels of management-level remuneration and high levels of staff turnover which he says “does not suggest a happy working environment”.

    NZME’s board has yet to respond to the letter stating — in a note to the New Zealand Stock Exchange accompanying the release of Grenon’s letter — that it will do so in its notice to shareholders before the annual general meeting on April 29.

    Were that the sum total of his challenge to the present board, it might be characterised as simply a move to improve the group’s financial performance and its return to shareholders. Much of what he says will, in fact, resonate with ordinary shareholders worried about the group’s financial performance and direction. It may well attract even more votes at the April AGM than he currently commands.

    However, there is an enormous caveat hanging over any support for Grenon’s initiative.

    He states categorically in his letter that he does not propose to act as a passive board chair (yes, there is an assumption that he will head an entirely new board). Instead, he leaves a strong impression he will be an executive chairman, in effect if not in name.

    “I propose to be very active at the management level, leading a board and team that will delve into the operational details so as to be able to challenge management . . . This approach to governance is the only realistic way to ensure NZME gets a fresh set of eyes questioning every aspect of operational effectiveness and shareholder value creation.” The italics are mine and are highlighted for reasons I will return to shortly, but the import is clear: James Grenon and his team will have a finger in the pie.

    The second reason for exercising caution on any endorsement of the Canadian’s move relates to the three paragraphs he groups under the heading “Journalism”.

    On the surface, he promises better journalism, saying his intention is that “more quality content should be produced, not less”.

    In contrast to NZME’s recent announcement to “set a new tone and build positive social momentum for New Zealanders”, our proposal will lift the company’s journalistic standards, resulting in the production of higher quality news content, characterised by independent, trustworthy and balanced perspectives. There will also be material for entertainment value as well. Then all the content will be used in any number of ways to generate profit.

    He also applauds the “audience leading ratings of NZME’s audio segment”.

    All of this sounds laudible, until one asks the simple question: How?

    He has yet to give any specific answers. A request from the journalists’ union E Tū for assurances simply led to Grenon asking more questions about what the union meant by “editorial independence”.

    However, let’s return to what Grenon means by his references to NZME’s journalism.

    If he means the board will limit itself to supporting an annual budget that will allow NZME’s editors to independently produce the sort of content to which his letter alludes, all well and good.

    If he means the aims set out in his letter will be transmitted to editors as an expectation of their approach to journalism, no problem.

    However, when read in conjunction with the intentions I italicised above, there are strong indications that he intends to be at least meddlesome and, at worst, to dictate editorial direction and content. There is a signal to his editorial preferences in the fact that he applauds radio ratings that are firmly anchored by NewstalkZB’s right-leaning content.

    Nowhere in Grenon’s letter is there any undertaking to observe the principles of editorial independence that certainly permeated The New Zealand Herald when I was editor a couple of decades ago and which I inherited from a long list of predecessors. Nowhere is there recognition that NZME has responsibilities to the general public. Declining trust is seen only in terms of the impact on profits.

    Responsible and accountable journalism is something editors and their staff hold in trust on behalf of society. They seek audiences for the dual purposes of spreading that journalism to the general public and, in the process, producing the profits that ensure its ongoing sustainability. Done well, it is a virtuous circle.

    However, like all circles, once any part of it is fractured it collapses. If Mr Grenon views the editorial department in the same way he sees every other aspect of NZME’s business, he would be in boots and all. Then it would be only a matter of time before the circle falls in on itself.

    James Grenon’s bid deserves support only if he gives cast-iron guarantees of editorial independence, and that requires more than a letter of reassurance. Mere words are not enough.

    Well-founded concerns for the future of a vital component of our journalistic infrastructure will be allayed only by changing the constitution of NZME to prevent directors from instructing any employee on editorial policy or operational matters. That protection would be all the more vital if now-stalled discussions over the purchase of Stuff’s titles and associated digital outlets are resumed after NZME’s board battle is resolved.

    Both Television New Zealand and Radio New Zealand have statutory protection against ministerial interference in editorial matters. The community deserves the same protection from board interference in private sector media in the public interest.

    That, however, has never been a given and many news media enterprises rely on a mixture of tradition and peer pressure to ensure their journalists are insulated from undue influence.

    The New York Times, for example, has a proud tradition of editorial independence but that owes more to the Salzberger family than to the company’s articles of association. The Daily Mail and General Trust have a tradition whereby its editors are appointed by the editor-in-chief in consultation with the board chairman, who also by tradition has been Viscount Rothermere (currently the fourth holder of the title). Each editor then controls the content of the respective titles. The editor-in-chief of The Guardian is not appointed by the board but by the Scott Trust, which owns the newspaper group, and reports directly to it.

    I commend to Grenon and his fellow board aspirants an essay on editorial independence by the chairman of the New York Times Company, A G Salzberger. You can access it here.

    For NZME to have effective guarantees of editorial independence, its articles would need to have a failsafe mechanism to prevent the sort of override that Rupert Murdoch affected with his news acquisitions. Such a mechanism might be special recourse to the Media Council in the event of an attempt by directors to interfere. The council could then independently investigate whether there had been a breach of the company constitution. Disclosure of such a breach could be damaging to both directors and the company.

    The combination of protective governance plus an independent review process would allay most of the fears generated by Grenon’s utterances and his past brief encounters with news media — a former shareholding in the right-wing aggregator site The Centrist, and financing of legal action against mainstream media.

    NZME shareholders and the public of New Zealand should be very wary if no such undertakings are forthcoming.

    • Disclosure: I was formerly a shareholder in the previous parent company of the group but do not currently hold shares in NZME.

    Dr Gavin Ellis holds a PhD in political studies. He is a media consultant and researcher. A former editor-in-chief of The New Zealand Herald, he has a background in journalism and communications — covering both editorial and management roles — that spans more than half a century. Dr Ellis publishes the website knightlyviews.com where this commentary was first published and it is republished by Café Pacific with permission.

    This article was first published on Café Pacific.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Everything you say to an Alexa speaker will be sent to Amazon – starting today

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Kathy Reid, PhD Candidate, School of Cybernetics, Australian National University

    Amazon

    Amazon has disabled two key privacy features in its Alexa smart speakers, in a push to introduce artificial intelligence-powered “agentic capabilities” and turn a profit from the popular devices.

    Starting today (March 28), Alexa devices will send all audio recordings to the cloud for processing, and choosing not to save these recordings will disable personalisation features.

    How do voice assistants work?

    A voice assistant works by constantly listening for a “wake word”, such as “Alexa”. Once woken, it records the command that is spoken and matches it to an action, such as playing a music track. Matching a spoken command to an action requires what computer scientists call natural language understanding, which can take a lot of computer power.

    Matching commands to actions can be done locally (on the device itself), or sound recordings can be uploaded to the cloud for processing. On-device processing has improved substantially in recent years, but is still less accurate than using the cloud, where more computer power is available.

    Amazon is making two changes today

    Alexa devices send recordings to the cloud by default. However, some high-end Echo models previously supported a setting called “Do not send voice recordings”.

    If this setting was enabled, all recordings were processed locally. In practice, only a tiny fraction of Echo users (around 0.03% had this turned on.

    In the first change, this setting is being disabled, and all recordings will be sent to the cloud.

    Once in the cloud, recordings can be deleted or saved.

    Saved recordings are used for Amazon’s Voice ID feature, which distinguishes between speakers in the same household and aims to provide a personalised experience.

    Alexa users also have a setting called “Don’t save recordings”, which, if enabled, deletes cloud recordings once they’re processed. In the second change, if the “Don’t save recordings” setting is enabled, Voice ID will stop working, and with it, access to personalised features such as user-specific calendar events.

    This two-step change means Alexa users need to make a trade-off between privacy and functionality.

    Alexa loses a lot of money

    Put simply, Amazon needs Echo devices to start making money.

    As US voice assistant expert Joseph Turow has detailed, Amazon began selling Echo devices very cheaply as a “loss leader”. Amazon says it has sold more than 500 million Alexa devices, but between 2017 and 2021 alone the company lost more than US$25 billion on the project.

    Amazon is looking to generative AI to turn the business around, with a US$8 billion investment in OpenAI competitor Anthropic.

    Amazon has invested US$8 billion in AI developer Anthropic.
    Amazon

    In February, Amazon launched a new AI-powered Alexa+ system. It promises more natural interaction and the ability to carry out tasks such as booking flights. Alexa+ is currently only available in the United States.

    “Agentic capabilities” such as booking flights require detailed profile information about the user on whose behalf they are acting. This would include details such as preferred products or services.

    Voice ID and data from spoken commands assist Amazon in tying preferences to a particular person.

    An AI-powered intermediary

    How will Alexa+ help Amazon make money? The first way is via direct subscription fees: the service will eventually only be available to Amazon Prime members or people who pay US$19.99 per month.

    But what may prove more important is that it will help Amazon to position itself as an intermediary between buyers and sellers. This is what Amazon already does with its existing e-commerce platform.

    It’s easy to see the system in action when you search for a product on Amazon’s website. Alongside items sold directly by Amazon, you are presented with products from multiple sellers, each of whom pays Amazon to be listed.

    Everybody pays the platform

    Agentic capabilities are likely to have a similar business model. Service providers – such as airlines or restaurant reservation companies – would pay Amazon when Alexa+ refers customers to them.

    Amazon’s move is part of a broader phenomenon termed “platform capitalism”. This takes in the crowdsourced content of social media platforms, “sharing economy” businesses such as AirBnb, and the automated gig work of the likes of Uber.

    Platform capitalism has delivered benefits for consumers, but in general the greatest benefits flow to those who own the platforms and design their infrastructure, services and constraints.

    How to protect your privacy

    After receiving a US$25 million fine from the US Federal Trade Commission for retaining childrens’ voice recordings in contravention of US laws, Amazon has overhauled Alexa’s privacy settings.

    The settings can be viewed and changed from the Alexa app on your smartphone, under “More > Alexa Privacy”. Alexa users may wish to review the settings in “Manage
    your Alexa Data” to choose how long recordings are saved for and which
    voice recordings to delete. Recordings may also be deleted using a voice
    command.

    As Alexa+ becomes available more widely, users will need to decide whether they are comfortable sharing data about their preferences with Amazon to enable agentic capabilities.

    Some Alexa privacy settings are still available.
    Amazon

    What are the alternatives?

    For users who are uncomfortable with the privacy settings now available with Alexa, a private voice assistant may prove a better choice.

    The Home Assistant Voice Preview is one example. It gives people the option to have voice recordings processed on-device, but offers less functionality than Alexa and can’t work with as many other services. It’s also not very user-friendly, being aimed more at technical tinkerers.

    Users may face a trade-off between privacy and functionality, both within Alexa itself and when considering alternatives. They may also find themselves grappling with their own place in the increasingly inescapable systems of platform capitalism.

    Kathy Reid receives funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program (AGRTP) for her doctoral work and is a recipient of the Florence Violet McKenzie scholarship.

    She currently contracts on a part-time basis to Mozilla Common Voice as a linguistic engineer. She is a past President of Linux Australia, Inc., an organisation dedicated to supporting open source communities and practices in the region. She was previously Director of Developer Relations at Mycroft.AI, a privacy-focused voice assistant, and held shares in the company, which is now dissolved. She has previously contracted with NVIDIA as a speech data specialist. NVIDIA provided hardware for Echo devices prior to 2021.

    – ref. Everything you say to an Alexa speaker will be sent to Amazon – starting today – https://theconversation.com/everything-you-say-to-an-alexa-speaker-will-be-sent-to-amazon-starting-today-252923

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Everything you say to an Alexa speaker will be sent to Amazon – starting today

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathy Reid, PhD Candidate, School of Cybernetics, Australian National University

    Amazon

    Amazon has disabled two key privacy features in its Alexa smart speakers, in a push to introduce artificial intelligence-powered “agentic capabilities” and turn a profit from the popular devices.

    Starting today (March 28), Alexa devices will send all audio recordings to the cloud for processing, and choosing not to save these recordings will disable personalisation features.

    How do voice assistants work?

    A voice assistant works by constantly listening for a “wake word”, such as “Alexa”. Once woken, it records the command that is spoken and matches it to an action, such as playing a music track. Matching a spoken command to an action requires what computer scientists call natural language understanding, which can take a lot of computer power.

    Matching commands to actions can be done locally (on the device itself), or sound recordings can be uploaded to the cloud for processing. On-device processing has improved substantially in recent years, but is still less accurate than using the cloud, where more computer power is available.

    Amazon is making two changes today

    Alexa devices send recordings to the cloud by default. However, some high-end Echo models previously supported a setting called “Do not send voice recordings”.

    If this setting was enabled, all recordings were processed locally. In practice, only a tiny fraction of Echo users (around 0.03% had this turned on.

    In the first change, this setting is being disabled, and all recordings will be sent to the cloud.

    Once in the cloud, recordings can be deleted or saved.

    Saved recordings are used for Amazon’s Voice ID feature, which distinguishes between speakers in the same household and aims to provide a personalised experience.

    Alexa users also have a setting called “Don’t save recordings”, which, if enabled, deletes cloud recordings once they’re processed. In the second change, if the “Don’t save recordings” setting is enabled, Voice ID will stop working, and with it, access to personalised features such as user-specific calendar events.

    This two-step change means Alexa users need to make a trade-off between privacy and functionality.

    Alexa loses a lot of money

    Put simply, Amazon needs Echo devices to start making money.

    As US voice assistant expert Joseph Turow has detailed, Amazon began selling Echo devices very cheaply as a “loss leader”. Amazon says it has sold more than 500 million Alexa devices, but between 2017 and 2021 alone the company lost more than US$25 billion on the project.

    Amazon is looking to generative AI to turn the business around, with a US$8 billion investment in OpenAI competitor Anthropic.

    Amazon has invested US$8 billion in AI developer Anthropic.
    Amazon

    In February, Amazon launched a new AI-powered Alexa+ system. It promises more natural interaction and the ability to carry out tasks such as booking flights. Alexa+ is currently only available in the United States.

    “Agentic capabilities” such as booking flights require detailed profile information about the user on whose behalf they are acting. This would include details such as preferred products or services.

    Voice ID and data from spoken commands assist Amazon in tying preferences to a particular person.

    An AI-powered intermediary

    How will Alexa+ help Amazon make money? The first way is via direct subscription fees: the service will eventually only be available to Amazon Prime members or people who pay US$19.99 per month.

    But what may prove more important is that it will help Amazon to position itself as an intermediary between buyers and sellers. This is what Amazon already does with its existing e-commerce platform.

    It’s easy to see the system in action when you search for a product on Amazon’s website. Alongside items sold directly by Amazon, you are presented with products from multiple sellers, each of whom pays Amazon to be listed.

    Everybody pays the platform

    Agentic capabilities are likely to have a similar business model. Service providers – such as airlines or restaurant reservation companies – would pay Amazon when Alexa+ refers customers to them.

    Amazon’s move is part of a broader phenomenon termed “platform capitalism”. This takes in the crowdsourced content of social media platforms, “sharing economy” businesses such as AirBnb, and the automated gig work of the likes of Uber.

    Platform capitalism has delivered benefits for consumers, but in general the greatest benefits flow to those who own the platforms and design their infrastructure, services and constraints.

    How to protect your privacy

    After receiving a US$25 million fine from the US Federal Trade Commission for retaining childrens’ voice recordings in contravention of US laws, Amazon has overhauled Alexa’s privacy settings.

    The settings can be viewed and changed from the Alexa app on your smartphone, under “More > Alexa Privacy”. Alexa users may wish to review the settings in “Manage
    your Alexa Data” to choose how long recordings are saved for and which
    voice recordings to delete. Recordings may also be deleted using a voice
    command.

    As Alexa+ becomes available more widely, users will need to decide whether they are comfortable sharing data about their preferences with Amazon to enable agentic capabilities.

    Some Alexa privacy settings are still available.
    Amazon

    What are the alternatives?

    For users who are uncomfortable with the privacy settings now available with Alexa, a private voice assistant may prove a better choice.

    The Home Assistant Voice Preview is one example. It gives people the option to have voice recordings processed on-device, but offers less functionality than Alexa and can’t work with as many other services. It’s also not very user-friendly, being aimed more at technical tinkerers.

    Users may face a trade-off between privacy and functionality, both within Alexa itself and when considering alternatives. They may also find themselves grappling with their own place in the increasingly inescapable systems of platform capitalism.

    Kathy Reid receives funding from the Australian Government Research Training Program (AGRTP) for her doctoral work and is a recipient of the Florence Violet McKenzie scholarship.

    She currently contracts on a part-time basis to Mozilla Common Voice as a linguistic engineer. She is a past President of Linux Australia, Inc., an organisation dedicated to supporting open source communities and practices in the region. She was previously Director of Developer Relations at Mycroft.AI, a privacy-focused voice assistant, and held shares in the company, which is now dissolved. She has previously contracted with NVIDIA as a speech data specialist. NVIDIA provided hardware for Echo devices prior to 2021.

    – ref. Everything you say to an Alexa speaker will be sent to Amazon – starting today – https://theconversation.com/everything-you-say-to-an-alexa-speaker-will-be-sent-to-amazon-starting-today-252923

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Fitting the ‘missing puzzle pieces’ – research sheds light on the deep history of social change in West Papua

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dylan Gaffney, Associate Professor of Palaeolithic Archaeology, University of Oxford

    Tristan Russell, CC BY-SA

    Owing to its violent political history, West Papua’s vibrant human past has long been ignored.

    Unlike its neighbour, the independent country of Papua New Guinea, West Papua’s cultural history is poorly understood. But now, for the first time, we have recorded this history in detail, shedding light on 50 millennia of untold stories of social change.

    By examining the territory’s archaeology, anthropology and linguistics, our new book fits together the missing puzzle pieces in Australasia’s human history. The book is the first to celebrate West Papua’s deep past, involving authors from West Papua itself, as well as Indonesia, Australasia and beyond.

    The new evidence shows West Papua is central to understanding how humans moved from Eurasia into the Australasian region, how they adapted to challenging new environments, independently developed agriculture, exchanged genes and languages, and traded exquisitely crafted objects.

    Archaeological evidence shows that people migrating from Eurasia into the Australasian region came through West Papua.
    Dylan Gaffney, CC BY-SA

    Early seafaring and adaptation

    During the Pleistocene epoch (2.5 million to 12,000 years ago), West Papua was connected to Australia in a massive continent called Sahul.

    Archaeological evidence from the limestone chamber of Mololo Cave shows some of the first people to settle Sahul arrived on the shores of present-day West Papua. There they quickly adapted to a host of new ecologies.

    The precise date of arrival of the first seafaring groups on Sahul is debated. However, a tree resin artefact from Mololo has been radiocarbon dated to show this happened more than 50,000 years ago.

    Genetic analyses support this early arrival time to Sahul. Our work suggests these earliest seafarers crossed along the northern route, one of two passages through the Indonesian islands.

    Human dispersal to West Papua during the Pleistocene epoch (about 50,000 years ago) and during the Lapita period (more than 3,000 years ago).
    Dylan Gaffney, CC BY-SA

    Interestingly, the first migrants carried with them the genetic legacy of intermarriages between our species, Homo sapiens, and the Denisovans, a now extinct species of hominins that lived in eastern Asia. Geneticists currently dispute whether these encounters took place in Southeast Asia, along a northerly or southerly route to Sahul, or even in Sahul itself.

    In the same way modern European populations retain about 2% of Neanderthal ancestry, many West Papuans retain about 3% of Denisovan heritage.

    As the Earth warmed at the end of the Pleistocene, rising seas split Sahul apart. The large savannah plains that joined West Papua and Papua New Guinea to Australia were submerged around 8,000 years ago. Much of West Papua’s southern and western coastlines became islands.

    Social transformations during the past 10,000 years

    As environments changed, so did people’s cuisine and culture.

    We know from sites in Papua New Guinea that people developed their own agricultural systems between 10,000 and 6,000 years ago, at a similar time to innovations in Asia and the Americas. However, agricultural systems were not universally adopted across the island.

    New chemical evidence from human tooth enamel in West Papua shows people retained a wide variety of diets, from fish and shellfish to forest plants and marsupials.

    One of the key unanswered questions in West Papua’s history is when cultivation emerged and how it spread into other regions, including Southeast Asia. Taro, bananas, yams and sago were all initially cultivated in New Guinea and have become important staple crops around the world.

    Moses Dialom, an archaeological fieldwork collaborator from the Raja Ampat Islands, examines excavated artefacts at Mololo Cave.
    Tristan Russell, CC BY-SA

    The arrival of pottery, some 3,000 years ago, represents movements of new people to the Pacific. These are best illustrated by iconic Lapita pottery, recorded by archaeologists from Papua New Guinea all the way to Samoa and Tonga.

    Lapita pottery makers spoke Austronesian languages, which became the ancestors of today’s Polynesian languages, including Māori.

    New pottery discoveries from Mololo Cave suggest the ancestors of Lapita pottery makers existed somewhere around West Papua. Finding the location of these ancestral Lapita settlements is a major priority for archaeological research in the territory.

    Rock paintings provide evidence of social change in West Papua.
    Tristan Russell, CC BY-SA

    Other evidence for social transformations includes rock paintings and even bronze axes. The latter were imported all the way from mainland Southeast Asia to West Papua around 2,000 years ago. Metal working was not practised in West Papua at this time and chemical analyses show some of these artefacts were made in northern Vietnam.

    At all times in the past, people had a rich and complex material culture. But only a small fraction of these objects survive for archaeologists to study, especially in humid tropical conditions.

    People settled diverse environments around West Papua, including montane cloud forests (upper left), lowland rainforests (upper right), mangrove swamps (lower left) and coastal beaches (lower right).
    Dylan Gaffney, CC BY-SA

    Living traditions and the movement of objects

    From the early 1800s, when West Papua was part of the Dutch East Indies, colonial administrators, scientists and explorers exported tonnes of West Papuan artefacts to European museums. Sometimes the objects were traded or gifted, other times stolen outright.

    In the early 1900s, many objects were also burned by missionaries who saw Indigenous material culture as evidence of paganism. The West Papuan objects that now inhabit museums in Europe, America, Australia and New Zealand are connections between modern people and their ancestral traditions.

    Sometimes these objects represent people’s direct ancestors. Major work is currently underway to connect West Papuans with these collections and to repatriate some of these objects to museums in West Papua. Unfortunately, funding remains a central issue for these museums.

    Many West Papuans continue to produce and use wooden carvings, string bags and shell ornaments. Anthropologists have described how people are actively reconfiguring their material culture, especially given the presence of new synthetic materials and a cash economy.

    A montage of images showing West Papuan archaeologists in the field. (A) Klementin Fairyo, left, is setting up a new excavation. (B) Martinus Tekege excavating pottery. (C) Sonya Kawer with wartime archaeology. (D) Abdul Razak Macap, right, sieving for archaeological artefacts at Mololo Cave.
    Klementin Fairyo, Martinus Tekege, Sonya Kawer, Abdul Razak Macap, CC BY-SA

    Far from being “ancient” people caught in the stone age – a stereotype propagated in both Indonesian and international media – West Papuans are actively confronting the challenges and opportunities of the 21st century.

    Despite our new findings, West Papua remains an enigma for researchers. It has a land area twice the size of Aotearoa New Zealand, but there are fewer than ten known archaeological sites that have been radiocarbon dated.

    By contrast, Aotearoa has thousands of dated sites. This means West Papua is the least well researched part of the Pacific and there is much more work to be done. Crucially, Papuan scholars need to be at the heart of this research.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Fitting the ‘missing puzzle pieces’ – research sheds light on the deep history of social change in West Papua – https://theconversation.com/fitting-the-missing-puzzle-pieces-research-sheds-light-on-the-deep-history-of-social-change-in-west-papua-250616

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump is interested in joining the Commonwealth. It’s not up to him – or even the king

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dennis Altman, Vice Chancellor’s Fellow and Professorial Fellow, Institute for Human Security and Social Change, La Trobe University

    It seems Britain has one key inducement to offer US President Donald Trump: a state visit hosted by King Charles.

    One can only imagine what the king thinks of this, but he will undoubtedly maintain a stiff upper lip and preside over several lavish dinners.

    Following reports of this offer, which would make Trump the only US president to be twice hosted by a British monarch, stories surfaced that the US might become an associate member of the Commonwealth.



    Read more:
    The king has a tricky diplomatic role to play in inviting Trump for a state visit

    There has been no official confirmation of this, but the story has been floated in several British newspapers.

    What is the Commonwealth?

    The Commonwealth came into existence as a means of retaining links with former British colonies, so there is a certain historical justification for the idea.

    Almost all of Britain’s former colonies are now members of the Commonwealth of Nations, with Ireland and the US notable exceptions.

    The Commonwealth is an organisation that ties together 56 countries, including a few in Africa that have been admitted despite not having been British colonies.

    Of the 56, only a minority recognise the British king as their head of state, a point local monarchists are reluctant to acknowledge.

    Indeed, some members of the Commonwealth, such as Malaysia, Brunei and Tonga, have their own hereditary monarchs.

    In theory, all members are democratic, and several, such as Fiji, have at times been suspended from membership for failing on this count.

    Whatever doubts we might have about the state of US democracy, it is hard to argue the US would fail to meet a bar that allows continued membership to states such as Pakistan and Zimbabwe.

    The Commonwealth is largely seen as less important than other international groupings, and its heads of government meetings are often skipped by leaders of the most significant members.

    Other than turning up to the Commonwealth Games, few recent Australian prime ministers have paid it much attention, compared to our membership of the G20 or the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC).

    Nonetheless, the Commonwealth does include a remarkable range of countries ranging from significant states such as India, Canada and South Africa to the many island states of the Pacific and the Caribbean.

    While its work is largely unreported, it does provide a range of international assistance and linkages that otherwise would be out of reach for its smaller and poorer members.

    Why is Trump interested in joining?

    Trump, it can be assumed, has no interest in the Commonwealth as a means of better working with states such as Namibia and Belize.

    The attraction seems to be linked to his strange reverence for royalty and a fundamental misunderstanding of the role of the British sovereign.

    King Charles is head of the Commonwealth through agreement of its members, probably in recognition of the extraordinary commitment his mother showed as the Commonwealth developed out of the old British Empire. Indeed, she clashed several times with her British ministers because of her loyalty to the Commonwealth.

    But unlike the king’s British – and Australian – crown, this is not a position that belongs automatically to the British monarch.

    So, while inviting Trump to Windsor Castle may be the gift of UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, admission to the Commonwealth would require the agreement of all its members.

    Given Trump’s demands to acquire Canada and to punish South Africa for recent land expropriation law, it is hard to imagine unanimous enthusiasm.



    Read more:
    Donald Trump is picking fights with leaders around the world. What exactly is his foreign policy approach?

    Most member states are cautious about being too closely linked to either the US or China, although Australia might end up the last true believer in US alliances. Others, such as Ghana and Pakistan, depend considerably on Chinese aid.

    In a world dominated by increasingly autocratic leaders, a middle power like Australia needs as wide a range of friends as possible. Most of us have only a vague sense of what the Commonwealth entails.

    Like all international institutions, the Commonwealth often seems more concerned with grand statements than actual commitment.

    But there is value in a global organisation whose members claim to be committed to:

    democracy and democratic processes, including free and fair elections and representative legislatures; the rule of law and independence of the judiciary; good governance, including a well-trained public service and transparent public accounts; and protection of human rights, freedom of expression, and equality of opportunity.

    Would Trump’s America meet those demands?

    Dennis Altman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump is interested in joining the Commonwealth. It’s not up to him – or even the king – https://theconversation.com/trump-is-interested-in-joining-the-commonwealth-its-not-up-to-him-or-even-the-king-253217

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Australians almost never vote out a first-term government. So why is this year’s election looking so tight?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Pandanus Petter, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

    Now that an election has been called, Australian voters will go to the polls on May 3 to decide the fate of the first-term, centre-left Australian Labor Party government led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

    In Australia, national elections are held every three years. The official campaign period only lasts for around a month.

    This time around, Albanese will be seeking to hold onto power after breaking Labor’s nine-year dry spell by beating the more right-leaning Liberal Party, led by Scott Morrison, in 2022.

    Now, he’s up against the Liberals’ new leader, a conservative with a tough guy image, Peter Dutton. It’s looking like a tight race.

    So how do elections work in Australia, who’s contesting for the top spot and why is the race looking so close?

    For Albanese, the honeymoon is over

    Albanese was brought into power in 2022 on the back of dissatisfaction with the long-term and scandal-prone Liberal-National Coalition government.

    At the time, he was considered personally more competent, warm and sensible than Morrison.

    Unfortunately for Albanese, the dissatisfaction and stress about the cost of living hasn’t gone away.

    Governments in Australia almost always win a second term. However, initially high levels of public support have dissipated over the first term. Opinion polls are pointing to a close election, though Albanese’s approval ratings have had a boost in recent weeks.

    At the heart of what makes this such a tight contest are issues shared by many established democracies: the public’s persistent sense of economic hardship in the post-pandemic period and longer-term dissatisfaction with “politics as usual”, combined with an increased focus on party leaders.

    Around the world, incumbents have faced challenges holding onto power over the past year, with voters sweeping out the Conservatives in the United Kingdom and the Democrats in the United States.

    Australia has faced some similar economic challenges, such as relatively high inflation and cost-of-living problems.

    Likewise, Australia – like many other established democracies – has long-term trends of dissatisfaction with major parties and the political system itself.

    However, this distaste with “business as usual” manifests differently in Australia from comparable countries such the UK and US.

    Australia’s voting system

    In Australia, voting is compulsory, and those who fail to turn out face a small fine. Some observers have argued this pushes parties to try to persuade “swing” voters with more moderate policies, rather than rely on their faithful “bases” and court those with more extreme views who are more likely to vote.

    In the UK, by comparison, widespread public distaste with the Conservatives, combined with low turnout and first-past-the-post voting, delivered Keir Steirmer’s Labour Party a dramatic victory. This was despite a limited uptick in support.

    And in the US, turnout in the 2024 election was only about 64%. Donald Trump and the Republicans swept to power last year by channelling a deep anti-establishment sentiment among those people who voted.

    And the country is now so polarised, that the more strongly identifying Democrat and Republican voters who do turn out to vote can’t see eye to eye on highly emotionally charged issues which dominate the parties’ platforms. Independent voters are left without “centrist” options.

    Because Australia’s voting system is different, Dutton is unlikely to follow Trump’s far-right positioning too closely, despite dabbling in the “anti-woke” culture wars.

    It also explains why Albanese’s personal style is usually quite mild-mannered and why he’s unlikely to present himself as a radical reformer.

    However, neither man’s approach has made them wildly popular with the public. This means neither can rely on their own popularity to win over the public.

    Another factor making Australia distinct is that voters rank their choices, with their vote flowing to their second choice if their first choice doesn’t achieve a majority. This means many races in the 150-seat lower house of parliament are won from second place.

    Similarly, seats in the Senate (Australia’s second chamber, with the power to amend or block legislation) are won based on the proportion of votes a party receives in each state or territory. This gives minor parties and independents a better chance at winning seats compared to the lower house.

    This means dissatisfaction with the major parties has in recent years created space for minor parties and a new crop of well-organised independents to get elected and influence policy. In 2022, around one-third of voters helped independents and minor parties take seats off both the Liberals and Labor in the inner cities.

    To win government, Dutton will need to get them back, or take more volatile outer-suburban seats off Labor.

    The big policy concerns

    Against this backdrop, Australian voters both in 2022 and today have a fairly consistent set of policy concerns. And while parties want to be seen addressing them, their messaging isn’t always heard.

    The 2022 Australian Election Study, run by Australian political researchers, revealed that pessimism about the economy and concerns about the cost of living were front of mind when Australians voted out the Liberal-National Coalition government last federal election.

    This time around, one might think some relative improvement in economic factors like unemployment and cuts to interest rates would put a spring in the prime minister’s step.

    However, the public is still very concerned about the day-to-day cost-of-living pressures and practical issues such as access to health care.

    The government’s policy efforts in this direction – for example, tax cuts and subsidies for power bills – have so far not strongly cut through.

    What have the major parties promised?

    Comparing the parties’ platforms, Labor is firmly focused on economic and government service issues to support people in the short term.

    Although expected to announce the election earlier, Albanese was handed the opportunity of delivering an extra budget by a tropical storm in early March. This included spending promises foreshadowed earlier, as well as a new modest tax cut as an election sweetener.

    In the longer term, Labor has promised significant incentives to improve access to free doctor’s visits and focused on investments in women’s health, as well as technological infrastructure.

    Labor is also encouraging more people to fill skill shortages through vocational education and promising to make the transition to renewable energy, while simultaneously supporting local manufacturing.

    The Coalition, for its part, has been critical of these long-term goals and promised to repeal the newly legislated tax cuts in favour of subsidies for petrol. It has focused its message on reduced government spending, while strategically mirroring promises on health to avoid Labor attacks on that front.

    Dutton has also proposed cuts to migration to reduce housing pressures and a controversial plan to build nuclear power plants at the expense of renewables.

    Will these differences in long-term plans cut through? Or are people focused on short-term, hip-pocket concerns?

    This election, whatever the result, will not represent a long-term shifting of loyalties, but rather a precarious compact with distrustful voters looking for relief in uncertain times.

    Pandanus Petter is employed at the Australian National University with funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Australians almost never vote out a first-term government. So why is this year’s election looking so tight? – https://theconversation.com/australians-almost-never-vote-out-a-first-term-government-so-why-is-this-years-election-looking-so-tight-250249

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Can Peter Dutton flip Labor voters to rewrite electoral history? It might just work

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Kenny, Professor, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National University

    They are neither as leafy nor as affluent as much of the Liberal heartland, but Peter Dutton believes the outer ring-roads of Australia’s capitals provide the most direct route to power.
    He has been telling his MPs these once-safe Labor-voting suburbs are where the 2025 election can be won.

    From the moment the Queenslander assumed control of the Liberal Party in 2022, he was intent on this suburbs-first strategy, even if it seemed historically unlikely and involved repositioning his formerly business-loyal party as the new tribune of the working class. As he told Minerals Week in September 2023:

    The Liberal Party is the party of the worker. The Labor Party has become the party of the inner city elite and Greens.

    This has been Dutton’s long game. It’s an outsider approach reminiscent of what US President Donald Trump had achieved with disaffected blue-collar Democratic supporters in the United States, and what Boris Johnson managed by turning British Labour supporters in England’s de-industrialised north into Brexiteers and then Conservative voters.



    Read more:
    Labor’s in with a fighting chance, but must work around an unpopular leader

    A political gamble

    It was not the obvious play but it may prove the right one.

    After a tumultuous period in which the Liberals had cycled through three prime ministers and ignored a clear public clamour for policy modernisation on women, anti-corruption and climate change, the Morrison government had been bundled from office.

    Morrison hadn’t merely failed to attract disengaged undecideds in the middle-ground, but had haemorrhaged engaged constituents from some of Australia’s safest Liberal postcodes.

    Nineteen seats came off the Coalition tally in that election, yet Labor’s gain was only nine.

    Something fundamental had happened. Six new centrist independents now sat in Liberal heartland seats – all of them professional women.

    Numerically, they formed a kind of electoral Swiss Guard around the new Labor government’s otherwise weak primary vote and thin (two-seat) parliamentary majority.

    In a sharp visual contrast to the Coalition parties, women made up around half of Anthony Albanese’s new Labor government and he moved to prioritise the very things on which the Coalition had steadfastly refused to budge – including meaningful constitutional recognition of First Peoples.

    Albanese, it seemed, had tuned in to the zeitgeist. He would even go on to break a 102-year record a year later, becoming the first PM to increase his majority by taking a set off the opposition in a byelection. One more urban jewel shifted out of the Liberals’ column.

    Dutton, however, never blinked.

    His first press conference as leader in 2022 had been notable for the absence of the usual mea culpa – a suitably contrite acknowledgement that he’d heard the message from erstwhile Liberals who had abandoned their party for more progressive community independents.

    Instead, Dutton confidently responded that the 2025 election would be decided not in these comfortable seats but in the further-flung parts of Australia’s cities where people make long commutes to work and struggle to find adequate childcare and other services.

    It was a bold strategy because it meant targeting seats with healthy Labor margins.
    Canberra insiders wondered privately if this was brave or simply delusional. Some concluded it could only work as a two-election strategy.

    Many asked where a net gain of 19 seats would come from if not through the recovery of most or all of what became known as the “teal” seats?

    Yet the combative Liberal continued to focus on prising suburbanites away from Labor with a relentless campaign emphasising the rising cost-of-living under Labor.

    Three years later and even accounting for the first interest rate cut in over four years, it is Dutton’s strategy that has looked the more attuned to the electoral zeitgeist.

    So much so that he goes into this election with a realistic chance of breaking another longstanding electoral record: that of replacing a first-term government.

    This hasn’t been done federally since the Great Depression took out the Scullin Labor government of 1929-1931.

    It’s all about geography

    While only votes in ballot boxes will tell, the Coalition’s rebounding support appears to have come from the outer mortgage belt, just as he predicted.

    These voters absorb their political news sporadically via social media feeds, soft breakfast interviews, and car-radio snippets.

    These are media where Dutton’s crisp sound-bite messaging around cost-of-living pressures has simply been sharper and more resonant than Labor’s.

    And it is by this means that these voters may have picked up that a Dutton government would seek to deport dual citizens convicted of serious crimes, stop new migrants from buying property (a policy first ridiculed as inconsequential by Labor and since copied), and cut petrol excise, temporarily taking around $14 off the price of a tank of fuel.

    These voters may have noticed Dutton’s campaign against the supermarket duopoly, which includes the option of forced divestiture for so-called “price-gouging”.

    Recently, he added insurance conglomerates to that divestment hit-list.

    And they might have heard his dramatic nuclear “solution” to high energy costs and emissions (in reality, devilishly complex and expensive).

    On top of these, semi-engaged voters might recall Dutton’s culture-war topics for which he has regularly received generous media minutes, including:

    • his opposition to what he called “the Canberra Voice”
    • his defence of Australia Day
    • his refusal to stand in front of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags
    • his oft-made claim that a Greens-Teals-Labor preoccupation with progressive issues has left the cost-of-living crisis unaddressed.

    Beyond such rhetoric, Dutton has had little to say in detailed policy terms. But will that matter? However comprehensive, Labor’s list of legislated achievements has, arguably, achieved even less purchase in the electoral mind.

    Polls taken as the election campaign neared showed Dutton’s Coalition was well-placed to win seats from Labor in suburban and outer-suburban areas of Perth, Melbourne, and Sydney, as well as regional seats in the NSW Central Coast.

    These include seats such as Tangney and Bullwinkel in outer Perth; McEwen and Chisolm in suburban Melbourne, and as many as seven seats in NSW – mostly on the periphery of Sydney or in the industrial Hunter Valley region.

    There may be other seats to move also. Liberal sources say they like their chances in Goldstein, currently held by the Teal, Zoe Daniel. And with a recent conservative turn in the Northern Territory election to the CLP, seats like the ultra-marginal Lingiari and the numerically safer Solomon could also be in play.

    A YouGov MRP poll reported by the ABC on February 16 put Dutton’s chances of securing an outright majority after the election at 20%.

    It measured the Coalition’s two-party-preferred support at 51.1% over Labor on 48.9%. That represents a swing towards the Coalition of 3.2%. But it is where the swing occurs that matters most.

    Seat-by-seat assessment of the YouGov results suggested the Coalition would be likely to win about 73 seats (median), with a lower estimate of 65 and an upper estimate of 80, if a federal election was held today.

    The same modelling indicates Labor would go backwards, holding about 66 seats in the next parliament, with a lower estimate of 59 and an upper estimate of 72. This is just one, albeit unusually large poll, but it will concern Albanese that even on its upper margin of Labor seat holds, he would not retain a majority.

    Of course, the campaign can change things and already, the delayed start caused by Cyclone Alfred introduced further variables in the form of a federal budget, replete with income tax cuts.

    A succession of polls conducted through March point to a Labor recovery with a Redbridge poll of 2,007 respondents, taken over March 3–11 putting Labor ahead 51%–49%. The same poll however showed a majority of people worry that the country is heading in the wrong direction.

    The final contest

    In political circles, people talk about momentum in campaigns, and say things like “the trend is our friend”. If true, that electoral amity has leaned decisively towards Dutton for the past year, and only recently to Labor.

    But caution is always advised. Election counts invariably throw up oddities – swings being more (or less) marked in one state compared to others, and seats retained (or lost) against a broader national trend on the night.

    Such surprises give the lie to the concept of uniform swings and makes prediction of a final seat count more difficult.

    If the polling consensus is broadly correct – rather than being the result of herding – and the source of Dutton’s rising support is former Labor suburbs, the question is, will those vote gains materialise at sufficient scale to translate into seat gains?

    If so, this election could redraw the political map and require new thinking about major party voting bases, policies and strategies into the future.

    The final outcome seems likely to turn on three things:

    1. Dutton’s ability to stay on message about the cost-of-living through the campaign when others in his team, buoyed by Trump’s war on wokeness, want to raise tendentious social issues.

    2. Albanese’s effectiveness in convincing wayward Labor voters that Labor has in fact delivered, that the economy has turned the corner, and that Dutton’s comparative toughness is code for budget cuts that would hit them hardest.

    3. Unforeseen events – at home or abroad.

    The Liberal leader is surprisingly well-placed. But remember, he is coming from a long way back.

    Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can Peter Dutton flip Labor voters to rewrite electoral history? It might just work – https://theconversation.com/can-peter-dutton-flip-labor-voters-to-rewrite-electoral-history-it-might-just-work-248664

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s embrace of independent political candidates shows there’s no such thing as a safe seat

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Black, Visitor, School of History, Australian National University

    At the last federal election, Australia elected the largest lower house crossbench in its post-war federal history.

    In addition to four Greens MPs, Rebekah Sharkie from the Centre Alliance and Bob Katter (with his own micro-party), there were ten independent MPs, seven of them new to parliament. These MPs have the freedom and flexibility to vote on every piece of legislation without having to adhere to any party-room pledge.

    Micro-parties and independents also fared well in the Senate in 2022, thanks in part to the fact that we use proportional representation to elect our senators. In a half-Senate election with 40 vacancies, six went to the Greens, one to Independent ACT candidate David Pocock, one to United Australia Party Senator Ralph Babet and one to Pauline Hanson in Queensland.

    Defections during the 47th parliament grew the crossbench even further. Five former Coalition MPs and Senators have moved to the crossbench, one over allegations of sexual harassment, one over the Voice to Parliament referendum and three over bruising preselection defeats.

    Senator Fatima Payman defected from the Labor Party last year, citing problems with the party’s stance on Palestine, and has now set up the Australia’s Voice party.

    Getting elected

    Independents hardly enjoy a level playing field in federal elections. Brian Costar and Jennifer Curtin pointed out in their book, Rebels with a Cause, that independent candidates lack equal access to the electoral roll, do not initially benefit from the public funding that flows consistently to the major parties, and cannot be listed above the line on the Senate ballot paper unless they form a group or party.

    Unless they are party defectors with a seat in parliament already, independent candidates also lack the advantages of incumbency. Previous research from the Australia Institute has shown the dollar value of an incumbent MP’s entitlements (in terms of their salary and those of staff, printing and travel allowances, public exposure), is about $2.9 million per term.

    Once elected, though, Independents have shown the major parties that they can be very hard to beat. Helen Haines and her predecessor as Member for Indi, Cathy McGowan, have won four consecutive elections between them. Zali Steggall, who famously beat former prime minister Tony Abbott in the electorate of Warringah in 2019, has been re-elected once, and the people of metropolitan Hobart have returned former public servant and whistleblower Andrew Wilkie to Canberra five times in a row.

    No safe seats

    Political parties and journalists have conventionally treated certain seats as “safe” (if the winning party’s vote two-party preferred margin was 60% or higher), others as “fairly safe” (if the winning party’s 2PP margin was between 56% and 60%) and others as “marginal” (those won by less than 56% at the previous election).

    But the days of safe and marginal seats are over. These terms belong to an age of two-party contests and more predictable preference flows. As Bill Browne and Richard Denniss of the Australia Institute have pointed out, the major party vote share has now “crossed a threshold” below which the idea of “safe seats” becomes redundant.

    Independent candidates can win with a relatively low share of the primary vote. In 2022, community independent Kylea Tink won the electorate of North Sydney with 25% of the primary vote, having ranked favourably, but not first, on many voters’ ballots.

    Holding on?

    Several contests involving current crossbenchers may prove nationally influential in the event of a hung parliament. Tink, whose electorate has been abolished in a routine redistribution, will not be among the incumbents hoping to hold their seat.

    The Liberal Party, by some accounts, perceives the Perth seat of Curtin, won by community independent Kate Chaney in 2022, as an important litmus test for the future. January saw a “surge in volunteers and donations” for Liberal candidate Tom White’s campaign, according to media reports.

    Elsewhere, the Liberals are attempting to meet incumbent community independents with candidates that more closely resemble them. The Liberal candidate for Warringah, Jaimee Rogers, is, like the sitting member Zali Steggall, a former athlete with a public profile. Wentworth candidate Ro Knox, a former Deloitte consultant, will run against Allegra Spender, whose own pitch for re-election has emphasised tax reform and productivity.

    In Victoria, Monique Ryan, who won the seat of Kooyong from then-treasurer Josh Frydenberg, will this time face Amelia Hamer, a local woman, professional and grand-niece of former Victorian premier Rupert Hamer.

    There are exceptions to that pattern. Former RSL President James Brown was preselected as the Liberal candidate for Mackellar, currently held by community independent Sophie Scamps. And in Goldstein, there will be a rerun of the previous contest between community independent Zoe Daniel and her Liberal predecessor Tim Wilson.

    At least three of the major party defectors in both houses are hoping to keep their seats, too. Gerard Rennick, formerly a Coalition senator who was denied a winnable spot on the Liberal National Party ticket, has registered the Gerard Rennick People First Party ahead of his bid for re-election this year. Rennick has pointed out that this will get his name “above the line” on the Senate ballot paper.

    Former Liberals Ian Goodenough and Russell Broadbent have both indicated they will run as independents to defend their seats – Moore and Monash respectively – from their erstwhile colleagues.

    Room for growth?

    Despite the watershed result in 2022, the crossbench may grow yet. Fundraising group Climate 200 is reported to be backing up to 35 candidates across the country, and an army of volunteers has already begun to mobilise in support.

    Health professional Carolyn Heise will hope that, with the support of the new campaign fundraiser the Regional Voices Fund, her second campaign in the regional electorate of Cowper may land her in parliament alongside Indi MP Helen Haines.

    The retirement of shadow minister Paul Fletcher as member for Bradfield in inner-Sydney makes for a particularly interesting contest in that electorate. Gisele Kapterian, who won Liberal preselection against Warren Mundine, will campaign against community independent Nicolette Boele, who would need a swing of only 5% in her favour to win on her second attempt.

    In Victoria’s western district, community independent Alex Dyson will attempt for the third time to win the seat of Wannon from shadow immigration minister Dan Tehan. Dyson came close in 2022 and would need only a 4% swing (two-candidate preferred) to win this time.

    In 2022, community groups supported independent candidate Penny Ackery in her campaign against then-minister and now shadow treasurer Angus Taylor. The two-candidate preferred vote left the seat “relatively safe” (in old terms), but declining support for the Coalition saw the state electorate of Wollondilly (within Hume’s borders) elect community independent Judy Hannan in a “surprise win” at the 2023 state election.

    There is plenty of potential for surprise victories and shock defeats at the forthcoming election. Community independents are running in at least four Labor-held seats. What should surprise nobody is that every vote in every seat will count on election day.

    Joshua Black is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Australia Institute.

    – ref. Australia’s embrace of independent political candidates shows there’s no such thing as a safe seat – https://theconversation.com/australias-embrace-of-independent-political-candidates-shows-theres-no-such-thing-as-a-safe-seat-250751

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australians almost never vote out a first-term government. So why is this year’s election looking so tight?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pandanus Petter, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

    Now that an election has been called, Australian voters will go to the polls on May 3 to decide the fate of the first-term, centre-left Australian Labor Party government led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

    In Australia, national elections are held every three years. The official campaign period only lasts for around a month.

    This time around, Albanese will be seeking to hold onto power after breaking Labor’s nine-year dry spell by beating the more right-leaning Liberal Party, led by Scott Morrison, in 2022.

    Now, he’s up against the Liberals’ new leader, a conservative with a tough guy image, Peter Dutton. It’s looking like a tight race.

    So how do elections work in Australia, who’s contesting for the top spot and why is the race looking so close?

    For Albanese, the honeymoon is over

    Albanese was brought into power in 2022 on the back of dissatisfaction with the long-term and scandal-prone Liberal-National Coalition government.

    At the time, he was considered personally more competent, warm and sensible than Morrison.

    Unfortunately for Albanese, the dissatisfaction and stress about the cost of living hasn’t gone away.

    Governments in Australia almost always win a second term. However, initially high levels of public support have dissipated over the first term. Opinion polls are pointing to a close election, though Albanese’s approval ratings have had a boost in recent weeks.

    At the heart of what makes this such a tight contest are issues shared by many established democracies: the public’s persistent sense of economic hardship in the post-pandemic period and longer-term dissatisfaction with “politics as usual”, combined with an increased focus on party leaders.

    Around the world, incumbents have faced challenges holding onto power over the past year, with voters sweeping out the Conservatives in the United Kingdom and the Democrats in the United States.

    Australia has faced some similar economic challenges, such as relatively high inflation and cost-of-living problems.

    Likewise, Australia – like many other established democracies – has long-term trends of dissatisfaction with major parties and the political system itself.

    However, this distaste with “business as usual” manifests differently in Australia from comparable countries such the UK and US.

    Australia’s voting system

    In Australia, voting is compulsory, and those who fail to turn out face a small fine. Some observers have argued this pushes parties to try to persuade “swing” voters with more moderate policies, rather than rely on their faithful “bases” and court those with more extreme views who are more likely to vote.

    In the UK, by comparison, widespread public distaste with the Conservatives, combined with low turnout and first-past-the-post voting, delivered Keir Steirmer’s Labour Party a dramatic victory. This was despite a limited uptick in support.

    And in the US, turnout in the 2024 election was only about 64%. Donald Trump and the Republicans swept to power last year by channelling a deep anti-establishment sentiment among those people who voted.

    And the country is now so polarised, that the more strongly identifying Democrat and Republican voters who do turn out to vote can’t see eye to eye on highly emotionally charged issues which dominate the parties’ platforms. Independent voters are left without “centrist” options.

    Because Australia’s voting system is different, Dutton is unlikely to follow Trump’s far-right positioning too closely, despite dabbling in the “anti-woke” culture wars.

    It also explains why Albanese’s personal style is usually quite mild-mannered and why he’s unlikely to present himself as a radical reformer.

    However, neither man’s approach has made them wildly popular with the public. This means neither can rely on their own popularity to win over the public.

    Another factor making Australia distinct is that voters rank their choices, with their vote flowing to their second choice if their first choice doesn’t achieve a majority. This means many races in the 150-seat lower house of parliament are won from second place.

    Similarly, seats in the Senate (Australia’s second chamber, with the power to amend or block legislation) are won based on the proportion of votes a party receives in each state or territory. This gives minor parties and independents a better chance at winning seats compared to the lower house.

    This means dissatisfaction with the major parties has in recent years created space for minor parties and a new crop of well-organised independents to get elected and influence policy. In 2022, around one-third of voters helped independents and minor parties take seats off both the Liberals and Labor in the inner cities.

    To win government, Dutton will need to get them back, or take more volatile outer-suburban seats off Labor.

    The big policy concerns

    Against this backdrop, Australian voters both in 2022 and today have a fairly consistent set of policy concerns. And while parties want to be seen addressing them, their messaging isn’t always heard.

    The 2022 Australian Election Study, run by Australian political researchers, revealed that pessimism about the economy and concerns about the cost of living were front of mind when Australians voted out the Liberal-National Coalition government last federal election.

    This time around, one might think some relative improvement in economic factors like unemployment and cuts to interest rates would put a spring in the prime minister’s step.

    However, the public is still very concerned about the day-to-day cost-of-living pressures and practical issues such as access to health care.

    The government’s policy efforts in this direction – for example, tax cuts and subsidies for power bills – have so far not strongly cut through.

    What have the major parties promised?

    Comparing the parties’ platforms, Labor is firmly focused on economic and government service issues to support people in the short term.

    Although expected to announce the election earlier, Albanese was handed the opportunity of delivering an extra budget by a tropical storm in early March. This included spending promises foreshadowed earlier, as well as a new modest tax cut as an election sweetener.

    In the longer term, Labor has promised significant incentives to improve access to free doctor’s visits and focused on investments in women’s health, as well as technological infrastructure.

    Labor is also encouraging more people to fill skill shortages through vocational education and promising to make the transition to renewable energy, while simultaneously supporting local manufacturing.

    The Coalition, for its part, has been critical of these long-term goals and promised to repeal the newly legislated tax cuts in favour of subsidies for petrol. It has focused its message on reduced government spending, while strategically mirroring promises on health to avoid Labor attacks on that front.

    Dutton has also proposed cuts to migration to reduce housing pressures and a controversial plan to build nuclear power plants at the expense of renewables.

    Will these differences in long-term plans cut through? Or are people focused on short-term, hip-pocket concerns?

    This election, whatever the result, will not represent a long-term shifting of loyalties, but rather a precarious compact with distrustful voters looking for relief in uncertain times.

    Pandanus Petter is employed at the Australian National University with funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Australians almost never vote out a first-term government. So why is this year’s election looking so tight? – https://theconversation.com/australians-almost-never-vote-out-a-first-term-government-so-why-is-this-years-election-looking-so-tight-250249

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: uninspiring leaders, stressed voters and the shadow of Trump make for an uncertain contest

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The usual story for a first-term government is a loss of seats, as voters send it a message, but ultimate survival.

    It can be a close call. John Howard risked all in 1998 with his GST, and almost lost office, despite having a big majority.

    But you have to go back to 1931 to find a first-term government thrown out.

    So, going into this campaign, Anthony Albanese has the weight of history on his side. But modern day politics is volatile, and the voters are cranky, which has in recent months given the opposition hope it could run the government close or even defy the odds.

    Government and opposition start the formal campaign with the polls close on the two-party vote. In the past few weeks, the government has improved its position, arguably to be now in the lead. If the election were held today, Labor would probably win more seats than the Coalition, and form government.

    But the margins are narrow. With the next parliament, like this one, expected to have a large crossbench, present polling is pointing towards a minority government as a likely outcome. Things can change during a campaign.

    Albanese started the term with substantial public goodwill – although his majority was razor thin, and his 2022 election owed more to the unpopularity of then prime minister Scott Morrison than to any real enthusiasm for Labor.

    If one had to point to the single biggest political mistake the prime minister made, it was his over-investment in the Voice referendum. Whatever one thinks of the proposal itself, Albanese let it distract from what was a growing-cost-of-living crisis. The referendum was probably always destined to fail, but Albanese and the “yes” side were also out-campaigned by the “no” forces, strongest among them opposition spokeswoman Jacinta Price.

    Albanese never properly recovered from the Voice’s defeat.

    Early in the term the government was complacent about its opponents, believing Peter Dutton was unelectable. Indeed, that was a widespread view, including among many on the conservative side of politics. It underestimated Dutton’s strategic and tactical skills, the changing nature of the electorate, and how deeply the cost-of-living crisis – with its dozen interest rate rises under Labor, on top of one under Morrison – would bite.

    Suburbia up for grabs

    What was once ALP heartland, outer suburbia, is now up for grabs. Many of the tradies have become conservatives, to whom Dutton’s blunt, black-and-white political pitch is not just acceptable but potentially attractive.

    Labor’s appeal to working people in this campaign is that that the worst is over on the economy, with unemployment still low and real wages in (slightly) positive territory. The latest national accounts figures showed Australia’s per capita recession, which had lasted seven quarters, was over. The February interest rate fall has also been a plus for the government: it may not be a big vote changer but it has reinforced Labor’s argument that things are going in the right direction.

    The question remains: will people buy the story of life getting better when they are still not back to where they were a few years ago, and continue to feel under the financial pump?

    This week’s budget and Dutton’s reply have homed in on cost of living. The government has come up with modest tax cuts, starting mid next year. These were legislated in a rush before parliament rose, so the Coalition was forced into saying it would repeal them. Dutton countered by promising an immediate cut to the excise on petrol and diesel. The opposition leader also used his budget reply to open another front in the battle over the energy transition, with the promise of a gas reservation scheme.

    In the past month or two, there has been some change in the political atmosphere. Dutton’s momentum seemed to have stalled. The tight internal disciple he had maintained frayed somewhat, with messages over some policy and internal fears Dutton had left policy announcements too late.

    Will voters think they don’t know enough about Peter Dutton?

    The risk for Dutton is that people will fear they’re buying a pig in a poke. He has run a small target strategy; leaders (Howard in 1996, Abbott in 2013) have won on these before.

    But if Dutton’s policy offerings in the campaign fall short, or his policy doesn’t stand up to the forensic scrutiny that comes in a campaign, he is likely to stall. So far, Dutton has established himself as a strong negative campaigner but he has yet to come through as a positive alternative prime minister.

    His signing up to Labor’s $8.5 billion bulk-billing initiative was an example of a short-term tactic to neutralise an issue that raised questions about the Coalition’s inability to produce its own health blueprint.

    The government will mobilise industrial relations against the Coalition, arguing Labor has delivered benefits to workers that a Coalition government would attack. This is risky for Dutton. His plans for slashing the public service, curbing working-from-home and removing the right to disconnect will fuel Labor’s negative campaigning, which will focus too on Dutton’s general plan to cut spending.

    The Trump factor

    A major unknown is what impact overseas events will have on this election. There has been a general swing to the right internationally. But the Trump factor has become a danger for Dutton.

    His opponents seek cast Dutton as Trump-lite. The opposition leader is a critic of Trump on Ukraine, and he’s aware Trumpism is now politically scary for many voters. Nevertheless, Dutton’s pre-occupation with the size of the public service and his emphasis on cuts (without giving detail) will, to some voters, sound like echoes (albeit faint) of Trump. Labor claims its focus groups show people have been increasingly seeing Dutton as Trumpist.

    Trump this week announced tariffs on foreign cars (not a worry to Australia, which doesn’t make any anymore). Next week he’ll announced the next stage in his tariff policy. This will feed into the election campaign. The extent it does will depend on whether Australia is directly hit. The government is busy with intense last-minute lobbying.

    The cost of living is front and centre in the election, but the recent appearance of Chinese ships near Australia and their live-fire exercise has contributed to making national security and defence (especially how much we should be spending on it) issues as well, although second tier for most voters.

    Major attention in this election will be on the performance of independents. Half a dozen so-called teals seized Liberal seats in 2022, and it would be very hard for the Coalition to obtain a majority without regaining some of them. The Melbourne seats of Kooyong and Goldstein will be especially closely watched. In New South Wales, one teal seat has already been lost through the redistribution.

    The teals ran last time on climate change, integrity, and equity for women. This election, climate is less to the fore in the voters’ minds, while we now have an anti-corruption body, the National Anti-Corruption Commission. And there is no Scott Morrison, who was a lightning rod for the Liberals’ “women problem”. So in terms of issues, the teals have a harder case to make than before.

    On the other hand, people remain deeply disillusioned with the major parties, and the teals have had plenty of time to dig into their seats. The general “community candidate” movement has strengthened and broadened. Whatever its precise composition, the new House of Representatives is expected to have a large crossbench.

    In the event of a hung parliament, the crossbench will come into play. This means its potential members, especially the teals, will be under pressure during the campaign to indicate what factors they would take into account in deciding to whom to give confidence and supply. They are likely to keep their cards close to their chests.

    The election will also test whether the hardline positions the Greens have taken, on local and foreign issues, have alienated or attracted voters. The Greens are at an historic high with four seats in the lower house. The three of those that are in Queensland will be on the line.

    Given the closeness of the polls as the formal campaign starts, what happens in the coming five weeks, and notably the personal performances of Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton could be crucial to the outcome. This is not one of those elections where either side can be confident it has the result in the bag.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from The Hill: uninspiring leaders, stressed voters and the shadow of Trump make for an uncertain contest – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-uninspiring-leaders-stressed-voters-and-the-shadow-of-trump-make-for-an-uncertain-contest-250775

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Albanese calls May 3 election, with cost of living the central battleground

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Australians will go to the polls on May 3 for an election squarely centred on the cost of living.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Governor-General Sam Mostyn at Yarralumla first thing on Friday morning.

    Later he told an 8am news conference at parliament house the election choice was “between Labor’s plan to keep building or Peter Dutton’s plan to cut.

    “Only Labor has the plan to make you better off over the next three years,” he said. “Now is not the time for cutting and wrecking, punching down.”

    Less than a week after the federal budget and following an earlier delay caused by Cyclone Alfred, the formal campaign starts with government and opposition neck and neck and minority government considered a real possibility.

    But in recent days, the government has gained more momentum and Labor enters the campaign more confident than at the start of the year.

    The aggregated January-March quarterly Newspoll had the Coalition leading Labor 51-49%, but Albanese leading Peter Dutton as preferred PM 45% to 40%. Polling only shows a snapshot of the present, and the campaign itself could be crucial to the election result.

    This is the fourth consecutive election launched off the back of a budget, with both sides this week bidding for voters’ support with big handouts.

    Labor pushed through legislation for its $17 billion tax cut, the first stage of which comes in mid next year. Opposition leader Peter Dutton in his budget reply promised a 12-month halving of excise on petrol and diesel and a gas reservation scheme.

    Labor goes into the election with 78 seats in the lower house, and the Coalition with 57 (counting the seats of two recent Liberal defectors). The large crossbench includes four Greens and half a dozen “teals”.

    With a majority being 76 seats in the new 150-seat parliament, the Coalition needs to win 19 seats for an outright majority. This would require a uniform swing of 5.3% (although swings are not uniform). A swing of less than 1% could take Labor into minority. The Coalition would need a swing of about 3.6% to end with more seats than the government. While all states are important if the result is close, Victoria and NSW are regarded as the crucial battlegrounds.

    If the Coalition won, it would be the first time that a first-term government had been defeated since 1931, during the great depression.

    Since the end of the second world war, while all first term governments have been reelected, each saw a two-party swing against them.

    One challenge for Albanese is that he has only a tiny majority, providing little buffer against a swing.

    The combined vote of the major parties will be something to watch, with the vote steadily declining from 85.47% of the vote just 19 years ago at the 2007 election, to only 68.28% at the 2022 election.

    Labor won the last election with a two-party vote of
    52.13% to the Coalition’s 47.87%.

    As of December 31 2024, 17,939,818 Australians were enrolled to vote.

    The start of the formal campaign follows a long “faux” campaign in which both leaders have been travelling the length and breadth of the country non-stop, with the government making a series of major spending announcement but the opposition holding back on policy.

    Marginal seats based on the redistribution

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Albanese calls May 3 election, with cost of living the central battleground – https://theconversation.com/albanese-calls-may-3-election-with-cost-of-living-the-central-battleground-250774

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Elisapie’s Juno-nominated album: Promoting Inuktitut through music

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Richard Compton, Professor, Department of Linguistics, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)

    Singer Elisapie’s fourth album, Inuktitut, has been nominated for album of the year at the 2025 Juno Awards being held this weekend in Vancouver.

    The album features covers of 10 pop and classic rock songs, including the Rolling Stones’s “Wild Horses” and Metallica’s “The Unforgiven,” re-imagined in Inuktitut. Inuktitut is the first language of 33,790 Inuit in Canada, according to the 2021 Census.

    Elisapie’s nomination offers a good opportunity to reflect on the situation of Inuktitut and how creative work, including music, helps promote it.

    Our work touches on the inter-generational transmission of Inuktitut. We share perspectives as a Qallunaaq (non-Inuk) linguist (Richard) and as an Inuk school teacher (Sarah) in Nunavik, with Sarah’s personal experiences in the community highlighted.

    Together, we have co-taught courses for Inuit teachers in Puvirnituq and Ivujivik. We are also both affiliated with a research group focused on Indigenous education based at Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue.

    Elisapie’s ‘Isumagijunnaitaungituq’ (The Unforgiven)

    Music in Inuktitut

    Sarah notes that:

    I was amazed that [Elsipasie] could make the long words in Inuktitut fit with the rhythm of the music; she did it so precisely. It took me back to the 1980s, when I was growing up. It would have been nice if songs like these had been interpreted back then. It’s been a long time coming, but it shows that nothing is impossible. The songs sound so natural in Inuktitut.

    On the day we talked about this story, Sarah remembered:

    I was at the Snow Festival yesterday [in Puvirnituq], and some of the teenagers knew all the words to her songs and were singing along. We didn’t have that when I was growing up.

    She remembers first seeing Elisapie sing in the early 1990s at one of the first snow festivals in Puvirnituq.

    Elisapie’s album has also sparked interest outside of Canada, with stories in such venues as Rolling Stone, Vogue and Le Monde.

    Beyond how Elisapie beautifully interprets the songs, creative choices like using throat singing on the first track, “Isumagijunnaitaungituq (The Unforgiven),” and stunning music videos showcasing life in the North brings the language to a wider audience.

    The album’s cover art features the word Inuktitut, ᐃᓄᒃᑎᑐᑦ, in syllabics — a writing system originally use for Cree and adapted to Inuktitut, where the individual symbols represent consonants and the way they point represents vowels.

    Elisapie’s ‘Taimangalimaaq’ (Time After Time)

    Diversity of the Inuit language

    The word Inuktitut itself means “like the Inuit,” and is the name for part of a wider language continuum spoken across the North American Arctic. This language continuum includes Iñupiaq in Alaska, Uummarmiutun, Sallirmiutun and Inuinnaqtun in the Western Canadian Arctic, Inuktitut in the Eastern Arctic, Inuttut in Labrador and Kalaallisut in Greenland.

    This abundance of names reflects a diversity of varieties, each with their own pronunciations and differences in grammar and vocabulary stretching across Inuit Nunangat, the Inuit homeland.

    Speakers in each community look to their Elders as models of how the language should be spoken. While this multiplicity of dialects poses challenges for translation and creating teaching materials, each variety marks local identity and links generations.

    This diversity also fascinates linguists, as each variety attests to a different way of organizing the unconscious rules of grammar in the human mind.

    For instance, Inuktitut has a rich system of tense markers on verbs, signalling events that just happened, happened earlier today, before today or long ago. Inuinnaqtun, to the west, lacks most of these tense markers, but instead allows more complex combinations of sounds.

    A role model for youth

    Sarah stresses the importance of Elisapie’s music for the language:

    It’s so impressive that people like Elisapie are doing such amazing things with the language. She grew up around the same time as me and when I was in school there were so few teaching materials in Inuktitut, and we focused more on speaking than reading and writing. Even if her main goal might not have been to promote the language, she’s doing it, because kids listen to her. More teenagers are willing to sing in Inuktitut now because they have role models like her and Beatrice Deer.

    Deer is an Inuk and Mohawk musician from Quaqtaq, Nunavik, who also sings in Inuktitut, as well as English and French.

    Indigenous language education rights

    In Canada, all levels of government have failed to provide adequate access to education in Indigenous languages, even in regions where Indigenous Peoples form the majority.

    In Nunavik, where Elisapie is from, 90 per cent of the population (12,590 out of 14,050) identifies as Inuit and 87 per cent (12,245 out of 14,050) report Inuktitut as their first language. And yet Inuktitut is only the primary language of instruction up until Grade 3.

    About promoting Inuktitut, Sarah says:

    We’re lucky that in most of the villages in Nunavik, the language is still strong. But it’s still concerning that some people have started speaking in English to their kids. What we really need to promote it is to have school in Inuktitut from kindergarten to the end of high school [secondary 5 in Québec]. That’s why a group of Inuit teachers, including me, visited Greenland to learn more about their education system. They’ve had schools in their language for almost 200 years. We just started in the ‘50s.

    While bilingualism may bring economic benefits, the lack of support for Indigenous languages often results in a situation where bilingualism robs children of the chance to fully develop in their first language.

    Right to education in Indigenous language

    In addition to violating Indigenous Peoples’ inherent right to get an education in their language (see the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples), current education policies also go against recommendations of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO).

    UNESCO recommends that Indigenous minority languages be taught as the primary language in school for the first six to eight years, as this has been shown to contribute to children’s well-being and self-esteem.

    Unfortunately, Canada’s official language laws continue to place the two colonial languages of English and French above Indigenous languages, particularly in education funding.



    Read more:
    Ancestral languages are essential to Indigenous identities in Canada

    New challenges have also emerged for maintaining and extending the domains in which Inuktitut is used. Once cut off from high-speed internet, new satellite technology has brought access to more Inuit communities, along with new economic opportunities.

    However, this connectivity also brings an avalanche of English content, from viral videos and streaming platforms to social networks and mobile games.

    Vital for promoting Inuktitut

    It is in this changing linguistic and media landscape where Inuktitut language and cultural production, like Elisapie’s album, are vital for promoting Inuktitut.

    Children and teenagers need content that speaks to them — things they see as new, fun, cool and representing their generation. This includes music, comic books, novels, video games and even Hockey Night in Canada in Inuktitut.

    So whether Elisapie’s music is being played in community radio stations, featured in an episode of CBC’s North of North or streamed as a music video on social media, it serves the added role of taking up a little more space for Inuktitut in people’s daily lives.

    Richard Compton receives funding in the form of research grants from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. He holds the Canada Research Chair in Transmission and Knowledge of the Inuit Language.

    Sarah Angiyou does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Elisapie’s Juno-nominated album: Promoting Inuktitut through music – https://theconversation.com/elisapies-juno-nominated-album-promoting-inuktitut-through-music-251774

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –