Source: The Conversation – USA – By Callie Maddox, Associate Professor of Sport Leadership and Management, Miami University
For most baseball fans, hope springs eternal on Opening Day.
Many of those fans – more than you might think – are women.
A 2024 survey found that women made up 39% of those who attended or watched Major League Baseball games, and franchises have taken notice. The Philadelphia Phillies offer behind-the-scenes tours and clinics for their female fans, while the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees offer fantasy camps that are geared to women.
The number of women working professionally in baseball has also grown. Kim Ng made history in 2020 when she became the first woman general manager of an MLB team, the Miami Marlins. As of 2023, women made up 30% of central office professional staff and 27% of team senior administration jobs. In addition, 43 women held coaching and managerial jobs across the major and minor league levels – a 95% increase in just two years.
As a fan and scholar of the game, I’m happy to see more women watching baseball and working in the industry. But it still nags at me that the girls and women who play baseball don’t get much recognition, particularly in the U.S.
Women take the field
In the U.S., baseball is seen as a sport for boys and men. Girls and women, on the other hand, are supposed to play softball, which uses a bigger ball and has a smaller field.
It wasn’t always this way.
Women have been playing baseball in the U.S. since at least the 1860s. At women’s colleges such as Smith and Vassar, students organized baseball teams as early as 1866. The first professional women’s baseball team was known as the Dolly Vardens, a team of Black players formed in Philadelphia in 1867. Barnstorming teams, known as Bloomer Girls, traveled across the country to play against men’s teams from the 1890s to the 1930s, providing the players with independence and the means to make a living.
The All-American Girls Professional Baseball League, founded by Philip K. Wrigley in 1943, also offered women the chance to play professionally. The league, which inspired the 1992 film “A League of Their Own,” enforced rigid norms of femininity expected at the time. Players were required to wear skirts and makeup while playing and were fined if they engaged in any behavior deemed “unladylike.” Teams were open only to white women and light-skinned Latinas. Black women were not allowed to play, a policy that reflected the segregation of the Jim Crow era.
Three Black women – Connie Morgan, Mamie “Peanut” Johnson and Toni Stone – did play in the otherwise male Negro Leagues in the early 1950s. However, their skills were often downplayed by claims that they’d been signed to generate ticket sales and boost interest in the struggling league.
The All-American Girls Professional Baseball League folded in 1954, and by the late-1950s women’s participation in baseball had dwindled.
Girls funneled into softball
Softball was invented in Chicago in 1887 as an indoor alternative to baseball.
Originally aimed at both men and women, it eventually became the accepted sport for girls and women due to its smaller field, larger ball and underhand pitching style – aspects deemed suitable for the supposedly weaker and more delicate female body.
The passage of Title IX in 1972 further pushed the popularization of fast-pitch softball, as participation in high school and college increased markedly. In 1974, the National Organization for Women filed a lawsuit against Little League Baseball because the league’s charter excluded girls from playing. The lawsuit was successful, and girls were permitted to join teams.
In response, Little League created Little League Softball as a way to funnel girls into softball instead of baseball. As political scientist Jennifer Ring has pointed out, this decision reinforced the gendered division of each sport and “cemented the post-Title IX segregated masculinity of baseball.”
Girls can still play baseball, but most are encouraged to eventually switch to softball if they want to pursue college scholarships. If they want to keep playing baseball, they have to constantly confront stubborn cultural beliefs and assumptions that they should be playing softball instead.
Instead of encouraging girls to play baseball, Little League launched Little League Softball to direct girls away from the sport. Chris Ryan/Corbis via Getty Images
A global game
You might be surprised to learn that the U.S. fields a national women’s baseball team that competes in the Women’s Baseball World Cup. But they receive scant media attention and remain unknown to most baseball fans.
In a 2019 article published in the Journal of Sport and Social Issues, I argued that the U.S. has experienced inconsistent success on the global stage because of a lack of infrastructure, limited resources and persistent gendered assumptions that hamper the development of women’s baseball. Other countries such as Japan, Canada and Australia have established solid pathways that allow girls and women to pursue baseball from the youth level through high school and beyond.
That being said, opportunities for girls to play baseball are increasing in the U.S. thanks to the efforts of organizations such as Baseball for All and DC Girls Baseball.
Japanese pitcher Yukari Isozaki competes during the 2010 Women’s Baseball World Cup in Venezuela. AP Photo/Fernando Llano
Pro league in the works
Momentum continues to build.
MLB recently appointed Veronica Alvarez as its first girls baseball ambassador, who will oversee development programs such as the Trailblazers Series and the Elite Development Invitational. A new documentary film, “See Her Be Her,” is touring the country to celebrate the growth of women’s baseball and raise awareness of the challenges these athletes face.
Perhaps most significantly, the Women’s Pro Baseball League announced that it is planning to start play in summer 2026 with six teams located in the northeastern U.S. Over 500 players from 11 countries have registered with the league, with a scouting camp and player draft scheduled for later this year.
Should the league have success, it will mark a revitalization of women’s professional baseball in the U.S., a nod to the rich history of the women’s game and a commitment to securing opportunities for the girls and women who continue to defy cultural norms to play the game they love.
Callie Maddox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
As a professor of social work who studies how people’s finances affect their physical and mental well-being, I’m concerned about the health hazards they’ll face too.
My research shows that losing your job can seriously harm your physical and mental health, especially when you see the situation as a catastrophe rather than a temporary setback.
Power of financial perception
When people lose their jobs, they do have real problems. Typically, for example, their income and savings decline. They might struggle to keep up on their rent or mortgage payments and might not be able to afford to maintain the same standard of living they had beforehand.
However, research shows that your perspective regarding your financial situation can do more harm to your health than your actual financial circumstances – even as your savings dwindle.
Someone might view losing their job as a temporary setback and remain relatively calm, while another person might experience the same circumstances as a disaster, triggering intense stress that cascades into serious health problems, such as depression and substance abuse. This difference in perspective often determines whether somebody will suffer significant health problems when they lose their job or experience a similar financial setback.
In a study I published in 2023 with social work scholar Theda Rose, we found that how a person felt about a decline in income mattered 20 times more than the actual financial change itself.
This finding comes from our analysis of data from the 2018 National Financial Capability Study, which surveyed more than 27,000 American adults. We used advanced statistical methods to examine how different financial factors affected people’s health and financial decision-making, looking specifically at financial strain, confidence in managing money and overall financial satisfaction.
The study confirmed earlier work about the vastly different psychological and physical responses two people can have when their income falls by the same amount, based on how they perceive this change.
Pathway to illness
Previous research has typically viewed what’s known as “financial precarity” – not having enough money to get by – in either purely technical terms, such as being able to come up with US$400 in an emergency, or in terms related to your feelings about that situation, such as persistent worrying about your finances.
However, we found that both aspects of financial precarity can influence health and behavior.
Among the many variables we explored, a decline in income surprisingly contributed much more in terms of worry than just not being able to pay the bills.
This distress caused by economic hardship isn’t just a psychological problem – it can produce physical changes that may have long-term health implications, such as high blood pressure.
A fired IRS employee, right, talks to a recruiter during a jobs fair for laid-off federal workers on March 15, 2025, in Kansas City, Mo. AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
Interestingly, people who face ongoing financial challenges but don’t get stressed about their situation aren’t more likely to develop depression symptoms than people without any financial stress.
A systematic review of 65 studies found clear connections between debt and mental health problems, depression and even suicide attempts.
Physical health troubles
Losing your job can harm your body in two main ways.
First, the stress from financial worries can affect people’s bodies directly – for example, by increasing blood pressure. Being in debt is associated with other ailments, including back pain and obesity.
Second, when money is tight, people often try to save money by skipping doctor visits or forgoing prescription drugs. Even with health insurance, high deductibles can mean paying thousands of dollars out of pocket before insurance helps. When choosing between paying for rent, food and health care, people often put their medical needs last.
Unhealthy coping methods
Some people turn to alcohol, tobacco or other substances to cope with the loss of their jobs. These habits are bad for your health and may empty your wallet, adding to the financial strain.
Marriage and other relationships may fray amid financial stress too. Borrowing money excessively from friends and family or snapping at your loved ones when you feel stressed out can weaken ties with those closest to you.
Moving on in healthy ways
To be sure, some people become more resilient after losing their job by adopting positive coping strategies.
Whenever you lose a job, try reaching out. Your friends and loved ones can help protect your health while you move on.
In addition to applying for new positions, spend time networking. Reach out to former colleagues, join professional groups and attend events related to your career.
Try to volunteer. It will help you sharpen or expand your skills while expanding your networks and perhaps lead you to a new job.
And consider starting or expanding a side hustle. It will generate some income, give you a greater sense of control over your life and keep you feeling productive during the monotony of sending out applications.
Keeping healthy habits is always important. But they could protect your mental and physical health during challenging times. Losing a paycheck is hard enough. Losing your health over it is even worse.
Jeffrey Anvari-Clark received nominal funding from Bank Roll’d in support of his forthcoming book: “Financial and Behavioral Health for Helping Professionals.”
When the natural environment is stretched beyond its ability to meet basic human needs for food, clean air, drinkable water and shelter, it is not just a humanitarian concern for the world community. Research shows that these crises are a matter of national security for the U.S. and other countries.
The effects of ecological disruptions on national security get less attention. But they, too, can cause social and political instability, economic strife and strained international relations. Ecological disruptions occur when ecosystems that provide natural resources are compromised and can no longer meet basic human needs. Examples include overfishing, human disease and environmental crime.
From the 1950s to the 1970s, intermittent conflict broke out between British and Icelandic fishermen over the Icelandic cod fisheries, which had been depleted by overfishing. The Icelandic government sought to ban British trawlers from a broader area around the country’s coast, but the British continued to fish. The result was standoffs between fishing boats and Icelandic gunboats, and even the intervention of the British Royal Navy.
More recently, China’s rampant overfishing of its own coastal waters has meant expanding fishing in the South China Sea and using fishing fleets to assert new territorial claims. Indonesia has responded by blowing up more than 40 Chinese vessels accused of fishing illegally in its waters and stealing more than US$4 billion per year in Indonesian profits.
The United States, Australia, New Zealand and Britain have stepped up naval patrols against illegal fishing in the waters of Pacific island nations. Conflicts have arisen with Chinese coast guard vessels that routinely escort fishing fleets entering other countries’ waters without permission.
China’s fishing fleets have also expanded their activities off the coasts of Africa and South America, depleting fish stocks and creating political instability in those regions, too. In 2024, the U.S. Coast Guard and Argentine navy began joint exercises to combat illegal Chinese fishing in the Atlantic Ocean.
Public health crises
The best-known examples of ecologically related public health crises that jeopardize national security involve what are called zoonotic diseases, which spread from animals to humans as a result of close contact between people and wildlife. More than 70% of the world’s emerging infectious diseases – uncommon or newly identified infectious diseases – stem from contact with wild animals.
The risks of animal-to-human disease transmission are especially high for those who handle or eat wild meat.
A recent example is the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus responsible for the COVID-19 global pandemic. Epidemiological and genetic studies suggest that SARS-CoV-2 first spilled over to humans from wild animals sold in the Huanan live animal market in Wuhan, China. Although the specific animal that served as the original host is still under investigation, bats and other mammals are considered likely natural reservoirs of SARS-CoV-2 because they harbor other coronaviruses with closely related genomes.
International Anti-Poaching Foundation rangers, seen here demonstrating a patrol in Zimbabwe, seek to protect natural resources from criminals. Gianluigi Guercia/AFP via Getty Images
Illegal poaching and trade of wildlife and forest products is valued at $91 billion to $258 billion per year. That makes environmental crime one of the world’s largest crime sectors, comparable with drug trafficking, at $344 billion, and human trafficking, at $157 billion.
Exorbitant black market prices for rare wildlife specimens and body parts provide funding for terrorist groups, drug cartels and criminal organizations.
Those and other terrorist activities funded through environmental crime have contributed to the destabilization of countries throughout the Horn of Africa.
These examples make clear how ecological disruptions to nature increase national security risks.
National security is not just a matter of military strength. It also depends on the ability of a nation to maintain productive and stable ecosystems, resilient biological communities and sustainable access to natural resources. Sovereign nations already develop and protect physical infrastructure that is essential to security, such as roads, communication networks and power grids. The natural world plays an equally vital role in social and political stability and, we believe, deserves more attention in planning for national security.
Bradley J. Cardinale has received funding from the US National Science Foundation, US Department of Energy, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and US Department of Agriculture.
Emmett Duffy has received funding from the US National Science Foundation, US Environmental Protection Agency, and the Lenfest Ocean Program.
Rod Schoonover does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The new season of “The White Lotus” is set on a luxury resort on the Thai island of Koh Samui. This comedy-drama series, which critiques wealthy tourists, focuses one plotline on foreigners who arrive in Thailand with an interest in engaging with its Buddhist traditions.
It depicts a young American woman who is interested in joining a yearlong meditation program at a Buddhist temple, even though Thai temples do not offer such programs. It also portrays a temple environment with many foreigners staying there long term, not dressed in typical clothing for residents of a temple – unusual in Thailand – and inaccurately describes the Buddhist view of the afterlife.
I have studied Buddhism in Thailand for over a decade, including the diverse ways in which Thai Buddhists practice their religion. While the Thai Buddhism depicted in The White Lotus is not completely realistic, there are several authentic ways to engage deeply with Buddhism, ranging from offering donations to short meditation retreats to ordination as a monastic.
Generosity and Buddhist laity
Without donations, Buddhist temples and monastic institutions could not exist.
The lay community provides for monks and temples, in exchange for the spiritual currency of merit, which is believed to turn into good karma. This good karma is believed to produce favorable conditions in this life and the next life, such as attaining wealth or being reborn into a privileged family.
Some laypeople might give food to monks as they walk on their alms rounds every morning, while others may visit the temple only on most Buddhist holidays. The main intention behind interacting with a monk or visiting a temple is to make merit. Each temple has donation boxes for specific funds it needs, such as paying the electricity bill, completing renovation projects, providing education for young monks and funding the monastic community’s health care.
People can take home blessed objects such as a lucky candle or small amulet in exchange for a small donation. In some temples, a monk’s duty is to sit inside one of the main halls and wait until the laity comes to receive offerings and give blessings.
Meditation retreats
Temples with meditation centers generally offer meditation retreats for a short period of time. Many offer 10-day retreats; participants can also sign up for a 21-day program in the north of Thailand, where they will aim to spend their days in 10-15 hours of meditation and minimize any other activity, including sleep.
Participants in the 21-day program aim to reach the first of the four stages of enlightenment within Thai Theravada Buddhism. Buddhists believe that those who attain the first stage have “entered the stream” of enlightenment and are guaranteed to attain it within seven lifetimes.
Contrary to popular Western beliefs about Buddhist meditation, it is not viewed as a secular practice. Thai Buddhists believe that meditation is a meritorious activity, helping them not only to ultimately leave the cycle of rebirth but also to accumulate merit and good karma along the way – in this life and future ones.
At a meditation center, every moment is spent in mindfulness of every action, along with periods of formal walking or sitting meditation. All meditation centers have a structured program and schedule that practitioners, typically dressed in white pants and top, must follow individually or in group periods of meditation.
Ordination of men and women
Ordination is an important part of the Buddhist life course. Thai Buddhists often enter a monastery for a short period of time, temporarily being ordained as a monk or nun. Even for those who intended to enter for life but choose to leave the monastic life, the process is simple; it usually carries no shame or disappointment. However, if a monk was well known for his teaching, his followers would likely feel upset.
In Theravada Buddhism, the kind of Buddhism practiced in Thailand, there are two levels of ordination: novice and full “bhikkhu” – the term for a fully ordained male. Males under the age of 20 may pursue only novice ordination, while those over 20 can become fully ordained monks.
It is often considered a rite of passage, or at least a sign of discipline and maturity, for a male to have been ordained at some point in his life. Temporary ordination is seen as a way for men to make merit for their parents, especially their mothers, who sacrificed so much for their existence.
Women are generally not allowed to be ordained in Thai Buddhism, but some have received ordination in Sri Lanka, where they are allowed to be monks, and set up communities in Thailand, which are gaining in popularity. These female monastic practice centers have initiated temporary ordination programs for female monks, or “bhikkhuni.”
These centers host special programs once or twice a year, where up to 100 women, including international visitors, can ordain as novice female monks for a short period. During this time, they learn what it is like to wear the robes, receive offerings and study the Buddhist texts.
Many women find this opportunity meaningful because they can offer merit to their parents, which was previously only available to a male.
Thai women fighting to be ordained.
Women can also ordain temporarily or long term as a “mae chi” in Thailand, or a precept nun. They usually follow Eight Precepts, including celibacy, wearing white robes and shaving their head. Although more accepted today in Thailand as a role for Buddhist women than bhikkhuni, this category of ordination was not initiated by the Buddha. Precept nuns are believed to have existed for centuries, but without a clear origin.
These are some common ways in which Thai Buddhists practice Buddhism, often with the goal of achieving prosperity in this life and a better rebirth. Such practices, Buddhists believe, may also get them closer to the ultimate aspiration of enlightenment.
Brooke Schedneck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – USA – By Conner Philson, Executive Director, UCSB Natural Reserve System, University of California, Santa Barbara
A small group of wild yellow-bellied marmots near the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Colorado.D.T. Blumstein
It probably feels obvious that having a close friend can influence your well-being. But do the groups that you’re a part of also affect your well-being? For example, does the culture of your work colleagues influence your productivity?
It may seem like the answer is also an obvious “yes.” But the idea that a group’s composition or structure can affect the individuals in it has been among the most controversial ideas in biology.
This phenomenon, called multilevel selection, is an extension of natural selection: the process by which organisms with traits better suited to their environment are more likely to survive and reproduce. Over generations, these advantageous traits – behavioral, morphological or physiological – become more common in the population.
In the traditional view of how evolution works, natural selection acts on an individual organism’s traits. For instance, mammals with more friends typically live longer lives and have more offspring. The trait under selection in this case is the number of social connections.
Multilevel selection proposes that at the same time selection is happening on the traits of individuals, selection also acts on the traits of groups. Here’s an example: Living in a more social and interconnected group may be beneficial for the members of that group, meaning the group’s traits are under selection. In nature, this means individuals in well-connected groups may live longer lives and have more offspring because well-connected groups may be better at finding limited resources or detecting predators. The traits of the group as a whole are what’s under selection in this case.
Multilevel selection could even select for traits that seem at odds at the individual and group levels. For instance, it could mean that selection favors individuals that are more reserved while at the same time favoring groups that are very social, or vice versa.
Multilevel selection has been a controversial idea since Charles Darwin first suggested that groups likely affect individuals in his 1871 book “The Descent of Man.”
The only evidence for multilevel selection acting simultaneously on individuals’ social relationships and on social groups comes from laboratory experiments. Experiments like these are vital to the scientific process, but without evidence for multilevel selection in wild animals, the 154-year-old debate rages on. As two field biologists interested in the evolution of behavior, we investigated multilevel selection in the wild by studying yellow-bellied marmots.
Our newly published study provides support for this contested concept, suggesting that the structure of the groups marmots are members of may matter for survival just as much as, if not more than, the friendly one-on-one relationships they have with other marmots.
Conner Philson observing the marmots’ social behavior. G. Johnson
Spying on marmots’ social lives
It’s taken a century and a half to answer the question of multilevel selection because you need an incredible amount of data to have an adequate sample size to address it.
Scientists at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory in Crested Butte, Colorado, have been studying the marmots nearby since 1962. This research is the second-longest study of individually identifiable wild mammals in the world.
Each year, the team ensures that all marmots are individually marked. We trap them so we can give them unique ear tags and paint a mark on their back that lets us identify them from afar. Then trained “marmoteers,” as we call them, spend about 1,000 hours a year watching these chunky cat-sized rodents through binoculars and spotting scopes.
Since 2003, the team has paid particular attention to the marmots’ social interactions and relationships. Our analysis of multilevel selection was based on 42,369 unique affiliative social interactions – behaviors such as playing and grooming – between 1,294 individuals from 180 social groups, with group sizes ranging from two to 35 marmots. We also tracked how long marmots lived – up to 16 years in some cases – and how many offspring individual animals had each year.
Using this data, we mapped out the marmots’ social networks. Our goal was to identify how many social relationships each marmot had, who was connected to whom, and the overall structure of each group.
Understanding all these marmot connections let us ask two crucial questions. First, how do social relationships affect individual survival and reproduction – that is, what individual traits are under selection? Second, how do social groups affect individual survival and reproduction – in other words, what group traits are under selection?
Importantly, we didn’t ask these two questions in isolation – we asked them at the same time. After all, marmots are influenced simultaneously by both their social relationships and the social groups they’re part of. Our statistical approach, which researchers call contextual analysis, tells us how much social relationships and social groups matter relative to each other.
New evidence changes the debate
It can be tricky to distinguish how group-level selection differs from traditional individual-level selection. It’s like a more complex version of thinking about the relationships that affect an individual. Instead of just your own behavior affecting you, your group – a product of many individuals – is affecting you.
Our new analysis shows that there is indeed multilevel selection for social behavior in the wild. We found that not only do both social relationships and social groups affect individual animals’ survival and reproduction, but social groups matter just as much, if not more. We calculated the selection gradient, a measure of how strong the selection is on a trait, to be 0.76 for individual traits, while for group traits it was 1.03.
Four juvenile yellow-bellied marmots play together. D.T. Blumstein
Interestingly, the type of impact on survival and reproduction wasn’t always the same across the two levels. In some cases, selection favored marmots with fewer social relationships while favoring marmots living in more social and connected groups. In human terms, think of an introvert at a really bustling party.
Evolution and multilevel selection are complex natural processes, so these types of complicated findings are not unexpected.
Multilevel selection is relevant for human groups, too, which come in many forms, whether friend groups, local communities, businesses we frequent or work at, economies or even entire nations. Our marmot study suggests it’s not uniquely human for groups at every level to have consequences for individual success.
This work was supported by the UCLA, American Society of Mammalogists, Animal Behaviour Society, Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the University of Ottawa, National Geographic Society, and the U.S. National Science Foundation.
Daniel T. Blumstein received funding from UCLA, the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the National Geographic Society, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. He is the President of the Board of Trustees at the RMBL where the research was conducted.
Source: The Conversation – USA – By Frederick Scholl, Associate Teaching Professor of Cybersecurity, Quinnipiac University
Signal is in the news because of a security failure, but the app itself is quite secure.AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato
When top White House defense and national security leaders discussed plans for an attack on targets in Yemen over the messaging app Signal, it raised many questions about operational security and recordkeeping and national security laws. It also puts Signal in the spotlight.
Why do so many government officials, activists and journalists use Signal for secure messaging? The short answer is that it uses end-to-end encryption, meaning no one in position to eavesdrop on the communication – including Signal itself – can read messages they intercept.
But Signal isn’t the only messaging app that uses end-to-end encryption, and end-to-end encryption isn’t the only consideration in choosing a secure messaging app. In addition, secure messaging apps are only part of the picture when it comes to keeping your communications private, and there is no such thing as perfect security.
The most common messaging protocol, SMS, is built into every smartphone and is easy to use, but does not encrypt messages. Since there is no encryption, carriers or government agents with a warrant, which are typically submitted by law enforcement and issued by a judge, can read the message content. They can also view the message metadata, which includes information about you and your recipient, like an internet address, name or both.
Truly secure messaging is based on cryptography, a mathematical method to scramble data and make it unreadable. Most secure messaging apps handle the scrambling and unscrambling process for you. The gold standard for secure messaging is end-to-end encryption. End-to-end encryption means your message is fully encrypted while in transit, including while transiting the communications provider’s networks. Only the recipient can see the message. The communication provider does not have any encryption key.
How end-to-end encryption works.
Apple iMessage and Google Messages use end-to-end encryption, and both are widely used, so many of your contacts are likely already using one of them. The downsides are the end-to-end encryption is only iPhone to iPhone and Android to Android, respectively, and Apple and Google can access your metadata – who you communicated with and when. If a company has access to your metadata, it can be compelled to share it with a government entity.
WhatsApp, owned by Meta, is another widely used messaging app. Its end-to-end encryption works across iOS and Android. But Meta has access to your metadata.
There are a number of independent secure messaging apps to choose from, including Briar, Session, Signal, SimpleX, Telegram, Threema, Viber and Wire. You can use more than one to adapt to your individual needs.
Default end-to-end encryption is only the first factor to consider when thinking about message security. Depending on your needs, you should also consider whether the app includes group chats and calls, self-destructing messages, cross-device data syncing, and photo and video editing tools. Ease of use is another factor.
You can also consider whether the app uses an open-source encryption protocol, open-source code and a decentralized server network. And you can weigh whether the app company collects user data, what personal information is required on sign-up, and generally how transparent the company is.
Human factors
Beyond the messaging app, it’s important to practice safe security hygiene, like using two-factor authentication and a password manager. There’s no point in sending and receiving messages securely and then leaking the information via another vulnerability, including having your phone itself compromised.
People can be lured into compromising their apps and devices by unintentionally giving access to an attacker. For example, Russian operatives reportedly tricked Ukrainian troops into giving access to their Signal accounts.
Also, if you use Signal, you should probably use its nicknames feature to avoid adding the wrong person to a group chat – like National Security Adviser Michael Waltz apparently did in the Signalgate scandal.
Frederick Scholl does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Oops. Anthony Albanese’s own department pre-empted its boss on Thursday. Some unfortunate official, pressing the wrong button, posted on X that the government was in “caretaker” mode, although the prime minister had not yet called the election.
There was a grovelling apology from the department, saying it was trying to find out why the error occurred.
No matter. The department was only a day early. Albanese goes to government house on Friday for an election on May 3.
Indeed, most players and observers had expected, before cyclone Alfred, that the campaign, with its “caretaker” period, would be well under way by now.
Instead, we’ve had this budget week that’s seen an auction of handouts.
First, the budget announced the tax cuts, which are more than a year away, and will be delivered in two stages, They are, to use Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ description, “modest”.
Then came Peter Duttlon’s counter hit – a halving of the excise on petrol and diesel, briefed out ahead of his budget reply. The benefit would come more quickly – but would only last a year. This is a recycled, extended version of the Morrison government’s 2022 excise cut. Labor supported the 2022 move, but rejects Dutton’s proposal.
The budget we nearly didn’t have gave Chalmers the stage to strut his stuff. Budget weeks traditionally belong to treasurers who, among other things, do a walkabout through the ranks of the journalists who are “locked up” and ploughing through the embargoed budget documents. So some old hands were surprised when the PM appeared with a senior staffer to do his own walkabout. Precedents didn’t come to mind.
Labor sought to wedge the Coalition by pushing through legislation to enshrine the tax cuts. The Coalition voted against them in parliament, then declared if elected, it would repeal them. Dutton has confirmed he won’t be announcing any policy for tax cuts closer to the election.
For the Liberals, to be seen opposing an income tax cut is unusual and risky. It’s made for campaign slogans. “The only thing they don’t want to cut is people’s taxes,” Albanese declared. “Labor is the party of lower taxes.” Both sides will be watching their polling carefully in coming days to see whether this stand rebounds against the Liberals.
The opposition believes its excise reduction will hit the mark, especially in the seats it is most targeting – those in the outer suburbs where people drive a lot.
But Kos Samaras, from the Redbridge political consultancy, predicts people will see this “arms race” of hand outs as providing just band-aids, with the measures likely to cancel each other out.
Apart from the excise measure the other big initiative in Dutton’s reply was his plan for a gas reservation scheme.
This is designed to fill what has been an apparent big hole in the opposition’s energy policy. It has its ambitious (many would say unrealistic) nuclear plan for the long term. But if it is arguing it would be able to bring down energy bills any time soon, it needs a here-and-now policy to do so.
Its answer is to turn to gas. That requires ensuring a reliable and adequate supply for the local market, to drive down the price.
“Gas sold on the domestic market will be de-coupled from overseas markets to protect Australia from international price shocks,” Dutton said in his Thursday speech. “And this will drive down new wholesale domestic gas prices from over $14 per gigajoule to under 10 per gigajoule.”
Dutton told the ABC after his address that the price fall could be achieved by the end of this calendar year.
That estimate sounds like a hostage to fortune. Precision can be dangerous when it comes to energy promises. Who can forget that number Labor put out so confidently before the last election – a $275 fall in household power bills?
Critics will find all sorts of issues with Dutton’s east coast reservation scheme, including that it would be heavily interventionist and there’s no guarantee it would work. Labor says Dutton is reheating one of its old plans, and that the government has the gas situation under control anyway.
The opposition says its plan is in line with warnings on gas supply released by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission on Thursday.
The potential effectiveness of Dutton’s gas plan will be highly contested. What is not in dispute is that the partisan divide over the energy transition will be one of the central issues of the campaign.
This week the prime minister has had a spring in his step. The polls have improved somewhat, and the “vibe” seems to be with him. Responding to a challenge from a couple of podcasters, he playfully put the phrase, “delulu with no solulu” into a speech to describe his opponents. Never mind that middle-aged politicians sound slightly absurd when they try to be hip. Albanese is a confidence player and at the moment his confidence is up.
The tactical games aren’t just around the tax cuts. Calling the election first thing Friday carpet bombs Dutton’s budget reply.
And once the election is called, parliament will be prorogued and that will scrap the Friday sitting of estimates committees, denying the opposition an opportunity to quiz officials about the budget and other matters. (On Thursday, the “caretaker” fiasco became public during an estimates hearing, surprising officials from the PM’s department who happened to be appearing at the time.)
For his part, Dutton understands the odds against him.
Political scientist Rodney Tiffen, in an analysis of federal campaigns from 1972 to 2022, found no example where an opposition had started the campaign roughly equal in the polls and won, and three where it had lost (1980, 1987, and 2004). “All winning oppositions started the campaign already ahead,” Tiffen writes in a chapter in The Art of Opposition.
In his budget reply, Dutton delivered one revealing line: “This election is as much about leadership as it’s about policy”.
Dutton casts himself as the leader who would make the tough decisions. “I will lead with conviction – not walk both sides of the street,” he said.
“I will be a strong leader and a steady hand – just as John Howard was.”
Dutton might see Howard as his role model, but it will be a big leap of faith for many voters to see the opposition as a contemporary Howard.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Bazil’s Supreme Court has unanimously accepted a complaint against former president Jair Bolsonaro and seven allies for attempting a coup d’état.
Bolsonaro governed Brazil between 2019 and 2022, but lost his attempt at re-election to current president Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva.
The decision is unprecedented. For the first time in the country’s history, a former president and high-ranking military officers are defendants alleged of crimes linked to a coup d’état.
Besides Bolsonaro, there are other five members of the military accused of being at the heart of a plot. These are General Braga Netto, who was Bolsonaro’s minister and vice-presidential candidate; General Heleno, who was minister of the office of institutional security; General Nogueira, who was minister of defence; Admiral Garnier, former commander of the navy; and Lieutenant-Colonel Mauro Cid, Bolsonaro’s former main aid, who had become a whistleblower.
The other two defendants are Anderson Torres, former minister of justice, and federal congressman Alexandre Ramagem, former director of the Brazilian intelligence agency.
The indictment
In February, the general prosecutor had indicted these individuals for the crimes of attempting to abolish the democratic state of law, coup d’état, qualified damage and damage to listed heritage, and armed criminal organisation. The sentences could exceed 30 years in prison.
In all, 34 people were indicted. The next complaints to be examined by the court concern the “military nucleus”, responsible for tactical actions. Then, the court will judge complaints regarding the nucleus responsible for organising the actions. Finally, it will analyse claims concerning those accused of coordinating the disinformation initiatives.
The only element that doesn’t have a trial date concerns the spread of disinformation outside Brazil.
The judgement on the complaint
All members of the panel voted to accept the charges. The rapporteur, Justice Alexandre de Moraes, stated that the judiciary “will not be intimidated by digital militias, whether national or foreign, because Brazil is a sovereign country”.
Justice Moraes argued that the organisation sought to undermine the democratic rule of law, acting until January 2023. He also indicated that Bolsonaro led this structure, using disinformation about the elections to instigate the coup attempt.
Other justices pointed out that the defences did not deny the coup attempt, but focused on maintaining their clients’ innocence. All justices repudiated acts that undermine the democratic rule of law and Brazilian institutions.
Next steps
Now that the complaint has been accepted, the panel will set the dates for the hearings and testimonies of the witnesses and the defendants. Then it will analyse the evidence produced throughout the process.
After these phases, the panel will summon the defendants and the prosecution for their closing arguments. It is then that the panel will decide on a possible conviction. If the defendants are convicted, they will begin serving their sentences only after the appeals are over.
The process is expected to develop over the next few months. Because of the 2026 elections, there is some expectation that the process will be finalised this year.
Another Brazilian example
The decision can be seen as yet another example that Brazil is setting for the world. Many believe the country can yet be a model for secure and efficient elections. Judicial initiatives to combat disinformation have become a reference to other countries.
State institutions have already responded to the insurrection of 8 January 2023. This unprecedented decision that made a former president and high-ranking officers defendants for an attempted coup d’état reinforce the central role of the justice system in the defence of democracy.
Felipe Tirado receives funding from the Centre for Doctoral Studies – King’s College London.
Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Carlos Eduardo Machado Sangreman Proença, enseignant-chercheur, Universidade de Aveiro (Portugal)
Guinea-Bissau faces a deep political crisis. For several years, the small west African nation has endured growing tensions between political institutions and there’s now a strong climate of uncertainty.
Guinea-Bissau’s general elections had been scheduled for November 2024, but President Umaro Sissoco Embaló postponed them citing political instability, logistical challenges and disputes over presidential term limits. He has since announced 30 November 2025 as the new date for elections.
Embaló has been president of Guinea Bissau since 27 February 2020. The opposition and the Supreme Court argue that his presidency should have ended on 27 February 2025. Embaló however insists his mandate should end on 4 September 2025. The dispute over Embaló’s five-year term stems from different interpretations of his inauguration date. He argues his official term began later, in November 2020 – when legal challenges to his election were resolved.
The opposition now regard Embaló as an illegitimate president. Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) representatives were also recently threatened with expulsion from the country when they came to assess the political situation.
These developments highlight an unprecedented crisis. They raise concerns about Guinea-Bissau’s democratic future, given the political uncertainty.
I’m an expert on Guinea-Bissau’s politics and have carried out research on the state of the country’s democracy. In this article, I examine the country’s current political crisis.
Weakening institutions
Nearly 50 years after independence, Guinea-Bissau is a fragile state, struggling to meet its people’s needs. Weak institutions, a self-serving political and economic elite, and a lack of basic public services have fuelled instability.
The army, led by veterans, has staged three coups, and the country’s 1998-1999 civil war caused significant destruction.
Despite this, civil society remains vibrant. It fills gaps left by the state. It plays a vital role in education, human rights, women’s rights, and environmental protection. It also supports vulnerable groups, including child beggars (talibés).
Since taking office, Embaló has been weakening democratic institutions and consolidating power.
His recent dissolution of parliament in December 2023, without scheduling timely elections, violated constitutional norms. He also directly appoints and dismisses governments, while the Supreme Court lacks the quorum needed to function. As a result, the legislative, executive and judicial branches all fall under the president’s direct control.
The parliament’s permanent commission, made up of elected members, is the only institution still operating within constitutional limits. However, the president’s dissolution of parliament has blocked legislative sessions.
This broader trend of power consolidation started with João Mário Vaz, who led the country between 23 June 2014 and 27 February 2020. Guinea Bissau has, for the past decade, been slipping into authoritarianism under different leaders.
Growing authoritarianism
Since Embaló won the 2019 presidential election, political, economic and social instability has persisted. This has severely affected human rights in the country.
One of the major drivers of the current crisis was Embaló’s dissolution of the National Assembly in 2023.
The assembly was being controlled by the opposition. This followed 2023 legislative elections in which a coalition led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde (PAIGC) won. Its leader, Domingos Simões Pereira, became speaker of parliament. A government appointed by the winning coalition was then sworn in.
In December 2023, a brief clash between two paramilitary groups – the national guard and the presidential battalion – became a pretext to dissolve the National Assembly. The president then appointed a prime minister and formed a government himself.
Losing external support
Embaló has taken every step to stay in power. He will eventually hold a presidential election but, I believe, only when the opposition is too weak to unite behind a candidate. He is also distancing himself from Ecowas, which urges elections within constitutional deadlines.
Embaló is, however, not alone in his efforts for control. His 2020 provisional inauguration in a hotel in the capital in 2020 was attended by politicians and business figures. He continues to receive backing, as shown by ongoing consultations and public statements from political and civil actors.
Still, his domestic support appears to be shrinking. He may consolidate his authoritarian rule as long as the military stays in its barracks and elections are delayed.
Guinea-Bissau faces two possible paths. It could transition into a liberal democracy if presidential and legislative elections restore functioning institutions. Alternatively, it could slip into dictatorship marked by unchecked presidential power, repression of opposition, and lawlessness, including armed groups and drug trafficking.
In a region already struggling with Islamist insurgencies and instability, Guinea-Bissau’s trajectory matters. The international community, particularly in Africa, must not ignore this crisis. Pressure on Embaló to allow a democratic transition is crucial for the country’s stability.
Carlos Eduardo Machado Sangreman Proença is a permanent member and director of a university research centre in Lisbon. He has been receiving funds from the Portuguese government for several years for research projects in Guinea-Bissau.
A West Papuan doctoral candidate has warned that indigenous noken-weaving practices back in her homeland are under threat with the world’s biggest deforestation project.
About 60 people turned up for the opening of her “Noken/Men: String Bags of the Muyu Tribe of Southern West Papua” exhibition by Veronika T Kanem at Auckland University today and were treated to traditional songs and dances by a group of West Papuan students from Auckland and Hamilton.
The three-month exhibition focuses on the noken — known as “men” — of the Muyu tribe from southern West Papua and their weaving cultural practices.
It is based on Kanem’s research, which explores the socio-cultural significance of the noken/men among the Muyu people, her father’s tribe.
“Indigenous communities in southern Papua are facing the world’s biggest deforestation project underway in West Papua as Indonesia looks to establish 2 million hectares of sugarcane and palm oil plantations in the Papua region,” she said.
West Papua has the third-largest intact rainforest on earth and indigenous communities are being forced off their land by this project and by military.
The ancient traditions of noken-weaving are under threat.
Natural fibres, tree bark Noken — called bilum in neighbouring Papua New Guinea — are finely woven or knotted string bags made from various natural fibres of plants and tree bark.
“Noken contains social and cultural significance for West Papuans because this string bag is often used in cultural ceremonies, bride wealth payments, child initiation into adulthood, and gifts,” Kanem said.
West Papua student dancers performed traditional songs and dances at the noken exhibition. Image: APR
“This string bag has different names depending on the region, language and dialect of local tribes. For the Muyu — my father’s tribe — in Southern West Papua, they call it ‘men’.
In West Papua, noken symbolises a woman’s womb or a source of life because this string bag is often used to load tubers, garden harvests, piglets, and babies.
Noken string bag as a fashion item. Image: APR
“My research examines the Muyu people’s connection to their land, forest, and noken weaving,” said Kanem.
“Muyu women harvest the genemo (Gnetum gnemon) tree’s inner fibres to make noken, and gift-giving noken is a way to establish and maintain relationships from the Muyu to their family members, relatives and outsiders.
“Drawing on the Melanesian and Indigenous research approaches, this research formed noken weaving as a methodology, a research method, and a metaphor based on the Muyu tribe’s knowledge and ways of doing things.”
Hosting pride Welcoming the guests, Associate Professor Gordon Nanau, head of Pacific Studies, congratulated Kanem on the exhibition and said the university was proud to be hosting such excellent Melanesian research.
Part of the scores of noken on display at the exhibition. Image: APR
Professor Yvonne Underhill-Sem, Kanem’s primary supervisor, was also among the many speakers, including Kolokesa Māhina-Tuai of Lagi Maama, and Daren Kamali of Creative New
The exhibition provides insights into the refined artistry, craft and making of noken/men string bags, personal stories, and their functions.
An 11 minute documentary on the weaving process and examples of noken from Waropko, Upkim, Merauke, Asmat, Wamena, Nabire and Paniai was also screened, and a booklet is expected to be launched soon.
The crowd at the noken exhibition at Auckland University today. Image: APR
Oops. Anthony Albanese’s own department pre-empted its boss on Thursday. Some unfortunate official, pressing the wrong button, posted on X that the government was in “caretaker” mode, although the prime minister had not yet called the election.
There was a grovelling apology from the department, saying it was trying to find out why the error occurred.
No matter. The department was only a day early. Albanese goes to government house on Friday for an election on May 3.
Indeed, most players and observers had expected, before cyclone Alfred, that the campaign, with its “caretaker” period, would be well under way by now.
Instead, we’ve had this budget week that’s seen an auction of handouts.
First, the budget announced the tax cuts, which are more than a year away, and will be delivered in two stages, They are, to use Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ description, “modest”.
Then came Peter Duttlon’s counter hit – a halving of the excise on petrol and diesel, briefed out ahead of his budget reply. The benefit would come more quickly – but would only last a year. This is a recycled, extended version of the Morrison government’s 2022 excise cut. Labor supported the 2022 move, but rejects Dutton’s proposal.
The budget we nearly didn’t have gave Chalmers the stage to strut his stuff. Budget weeks traditionally belong to treasurers who, among other things, do a walkabout through the ranks of the journalists who are “locked up” and ploughing through the embargoed budget documents. So some old hands were surprised when the PM appeared with a senior staffer to do his own walkabout. Precedents didn’t come to mind.
Labor sought to wedge the Coalition by pushing through legislation to enshrine the tax cuts. The Coalition voted against them in parliament, then declared if elected, it would repeal them. Dutton has confirmed he won’t be announcing any policy for tax cuts closer to the election.
For the Liberals, to be seen opposing an income tax cut is unusual and risky. It’s made for campaign slogans. “The only thing they don’t want to cut is people’s taxes,” Albanese declared. “Labor is the party of lower taxes.” Both sides will be watching their polling carefully in coming days to see whether this stand rebounds against the Liberals.
The opposition believes its excise reduction will hit the mark, especially in the seats it is most targeting – those in the outer suburbs where people drive a lot.
But Kos Samaras, from the Redbridge political consultancy, predicts people will see this “arms race” of hand outs as providing just band-aids, with the measures likely to cancel each other out.
Apart from the excise measure the other big initiative in Dutton’s reply was his plan for a gas reservation scheme.
This is designed to fill what has been an apparent big hole in the opposition’s energy policy. It has its ambitious (many would say unrealistic) nuclear plan for the long term. But if it is arguing it would be able to bring down energy bills any time soon, it needs a here-and-now policy to do so.
Its answer is to turn to gas. That requires ensuring a reliable and adequate supply for the local market, to drive down the price.
“Gas sold on the domestic market will be de-coupled from overseas markets to protect Australia from international price shocks,” Dutton said in his Thursday speech. “And this will drive down new wholesale domestic gas prices from over $14 per gigajoule to under 10 per gigajoule.”
Dutton told the ABC after his address that the price fall could be achieved by the end of this calendar year.
That estimate sounds like a hostage to fortune. Precision can be dangerous when it comes to energy promises. Who can forget that number Labor put out so confidently before the last election – a $275 fall in household power bills?
Critics will find all sorts of issues with Dutton’s east coast reservation scheme, including that it would be heavily interventionist and there’s no guarantee it would work. Labor says Dutton is reheating one of its old plans, and that the government has the gas situation under control anyway.
The opposition says its plan is in line with warnings on gas supply released by the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission on Thursday.
The potential effectiveness of Dutton’s gas plan will be highly contested. What is not in dispute is that the partisan divide over the energy transition will be one of the central issues of the campaign.
This week the prime minister has had a spring in his step. The polls have improved somewhat, and the “vibe” seems to be with him. Responding to a challenge from a couple of podcasters, he playfully put the phrase, “delulu with no solulu” into a speech to describe his opponents. Never mind that middle-aged politicians sound slightly absurd when they try to be hip. Albanese is a confidence player and at the moment his confidence is up.
The tactical games aren’t just around the tax cuts. Calling the election first thing Friday carpet bombs Dutton’s budget reply.
And once the election is called, parliament will be prorogued and that will scrap the Friday sitting of estimates committees, denying the opposition an opportunity to quiz officials about the budget and other matters. (On Thursday, the “caretaker” fiasco became public during an estimates hearing, surprising officials from the PM’s department who happening to be appearing at the time.)
For his part, Dutton understands the odds against him.
Political scientist Rodney Tiffen, in an analysis of federal campaigns from 1972 to 2022, found no example where an opposition had started the campaign roughly equal in the polls and won, and three where it had lost (1980, 1987, and 2004). “All winning oppositions started the campaign already ahead,” Tiffen writes in a chapter in The Art of Opposition.
In his budget reply, Dutton delivered one revealing line: “This election is as much about leadership as it’s about policy”.
Dutton casts himself as the leader who would take the tough decisions. “I will lead with conviction – not walk both sides of the street,” he said.
“I will be a strong leader and a steady hand – just as John Howard was.”
Dutton might see Howard as his role model, but it will be a big leap of faith for many voters to see the opposition as a contemporary Howard.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Lori Turnbull, Professor of Political Science in the Faculty of Management at Dalhousie University, Dalhousie University
This federal election is being described as the most consequential in modern Canadian history. The country is in a tariff and trade war with its closest ally, the United States, and President Donald Trump is threatening Canada’s sovereignty.
Liberal Leader Mark Carney, a rookie in politics but an internationally respected economist, is enjoying a wave of momentum. Due to his stints as governor of the Bank of Canada during the 2008-09 financial crash and the Bank of England during Brexit, he’s well-qualified to manage economic roller-coasters. Can his impressive CV help calm the fears of Canadians?
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, on the other hand, has been connecting with supporters by giving voice to their worries about the economy, jobs, crime and the housing crisis. He’s made people feel heard, but he’s also been accused of building his brand appeal by stoking — rather than soothing — Canadians’ fears about the future.
Carney’s track record as a fixer could give him the edge now that the election campaign is in full swing and Canada’s fears are being amplified.
Liberals wildly unpopular
Before Justin Trudeau announced his plans to leave politics, the next federal election was shaping up to be a showdown between Trudeau and Poilievre, two career politicians with likeability problems and a palpable mutual resentment.
Each of them often used fear as a tool to warn Canadians about the dangers of electing the other. The mood in the country was sour.
In July 2024, an Abacus Data poll indicated only 23 per cent of Canadians felt the country was headed in the right direction. The affordability crisis was weighing on people, as 45 per cent of respondents reported having a hard time keeping up with daily expenses due to rising prices.
The long-standing consensus around the benefits of immigration was crumbling due to the lack of suitable housing for everyone.
A third of Canadians also self-identified as “political orphans” who felt that none of the political parties truly represented them.
Most of the public was blaming the Liberals for the broad mismanagement of various important complex policy files, and the Conservatives were the largest beneficiaries of voter frustration. They looked like they had the next election in the bag.
Dramatically altered landscape
It’s now March 2025 and the political playing field looks wildly different. Though the aforementioned issues remain salient, Trudeau has resigned and Carney has erased the lead in public support that Poilievre and the Conservatives held not long ago.
Most polls suggest the parties are in a dead heat while others have Carney pulling ahead. In the hope of winning enough votes to form a majority government — in Carney’s own words, he’s asked the public for a “strong, positive mandate” — he is running on a platform aimed at the political centre to offer a home to those political orphans.
Given that Carney is pulling the Liberals back to the centre, and that there is actually overlap between the Conservatives and the Liberals — both spent the first full day of the campaign promising income tax cuts — it seems the real choice in this election is about leadership rather than dramatically different policy platforms.
It’s no surprise that Carney’s unique professional experience elevates his bid to be prime minister in the current political climate. So far, he’s been a calm presence amid a volatile and developing storm. Despite Conservative efforts to try to diminish him, his credentials speak for themselves.
This helps him to build trust among voters. At any other time, his snippiness with the media when asked about his financial holdings might cost him some political capital, but in the current moment, he will likely be given a pass.
Much to the certain chagrin of Conservatives, the polls suggest this moment was custom-made for Carney.
Trump’s attacks and threats against Canadian sovereignty tee up Carney’s pitches for Canada’s economic independence perfectly. His campaign material basically writes itself, and his economic gravitas makes him a solid messenger.
Carney is both reassuring Canadians in this moment of anxiety as well as tapping into Canadian pride, in his own words and through celebrity proxies like comedian Mike Myers who are helping him reach audiences who tuned out Trudeau a long time ago.
Mike Myers appears with Mark Carney in this ad on Carney’s YouTube channel.
This is not to count out Poilievre. With the Conservative base firmly behind him, he could be poised to form a government or keep Carney to a minority.
But the question on the ballot is no longer about Trudeau — it’s about who Canadians trust to lead them through a disruptive and unpredictable time.
Poilievre has been working tirelessly for years to position himself as the person for the job.
But the peculiar circumstances of the moment — and the fear and anxiety that Canadians are having trouble shaking amid Trump’s continuing threats — might drive many voters towards the non-politician whose track record as a fixer gives people the reassurance they are looking for.
Lori Turnbull does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton says a Coalition government would introduce a long-awaited gas reservation scheme, in a budget reply speech that puts energy policy firmly at the centre of the upcoming election campaign.
On Thursday night, Dutton pledged a national gas plan that he claimed would “prioritise domestic gas supply, address shortfalls and reduce energy prices for Australians”.
Under the proposed reservation policy, gas companies would be required to divert more gas to the Australian market, rather than sell it overseas. Dutton also pledged measures to speed up development approvals for proposed gas projects.
Gas reservation policy may ruffle the feathers of gas importers such as Japan. But it offers a chance to reset relations with our energy-trading partners, and position Australia as a renewable-energy powerhouse.
However, Dutton’s plan to expand gas production is a folly. No new gas projects are needed to meet Australia’s energy needs. The best way to cut energy prices is to accelerate the shift to the cheapest form of energy – which is from wind, solar and storage.
Gas reservation: a long time coming
Australia is one of the world’s biggest gas exporters. But only a fraction of gas produced here is used to power our homes and businesses. Around 80% is exported or is used to liquefy gas so it can be shipped abroad.
This means despite massive production, parts of Australia face potential gas shortages. The Australian Energy Market Operator has warned of a seasonal supply crunch in the nation’s south from 2028, as production in Bass Strait declines. Reserving gas for the domestic market instead of exporting it could close these potential gaps.
The idea of reserving gas for use in Australia is broadly popular. It is supported by Australia’s manufacturing industry, and crossbenchers including David Pocock and Jacqui Lambie.
Western Australia has had a gas reservation policy for more than a decade. However, federal policymakers have, to date, not followed suit.
There have also been concerns the policy could harm Australia’s relations with strategic partners – especially Japan.
Spotlight on Japan
Australia supplied 43% of Japan’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2022. Japan has previously expressed concern about federal government moves towards diverting Australia’s gas supplies for domestic use, saying it could threaten long-established trade practices and future Japanese investment.
Importantly, gas contributes to dangerous climate change – both when it leaks into the atmosphere as methane, and when it is burned, releasing carbon dioxide and other pollutants.
Tokyo’s finance for gas projects in Australia is slowing the shift away from fossil fuels and diverting investment, workforce, and supply-chain capacity away from clean energy industries.
Diverting Australian gas to meet local needs would help reset trading relations in our region. Australia’s economic prospects are tied to embracing our potential as a clean energy superpower. This requires signalling to our trading partners our intention to shift away from gas extraction for export.
invest A$1 billion into a critical gas infrastructure fund
increase gas pipeline and storage capacity
prevent gas companies from prolonged delays in drilling offshore gas fields.
However, Australia does not need any new gas projects. We only use a fraction of what we produce.
What’s more, evidence suggests more gas production will not bring prices down. East coast gas production has doubled over the past decade even as gas prices have tripled.
Keeping more gas onshore may help with energy prices. But the best way to reduce power bills is to shift to the cheapest form of electricity generation – which is renewables, not gas.
Australia’s gas use is declining as we move to cleaner, cheaper and more efficient types of energy for homes and businesses.
Gas has a small, short-term role as Australia switches to renewables, smoothing out electricity supplies when demand exceeds generation from wind, solar and energy storage.
A domestic reservation policy could ensure this gas is used to avoid potential supply gaps.
Our shared clean energy future
With a national gas reservation scheme on the table no matter who wins the election, Australia will have some tough conversations ahead with international customers – especially Japan.
However both Australia and Japan have committed to cut emissions over the next decade and achieve net-zero emissions in their economies by 2050.
Gas will play an ever-dwindling role in both countries in coming years, as it is replaced by cleaner forms of energy from wind, solar and storage.
Government efforts to manage the energy transition should not encourage new gas projects. Instead, it should position Australia at the forefront of the clean energy revolution.
Wesley Morgan is a fellow with the Climate Council of Australia.
Ships transport around 80% of the world’s cargo. From your food, to your car to your phone, chances are it got to you by sea. The vast majority of the world’s container ships burn fossil fuels, which is why 3% of global emissions come from shipping – slightly more than the 2.5% of emissions from aviation.
The race is on to reduce these emissions, and quickly, to meet the Paris agreement targets. In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, we find out what technologies are available to shipping companies to reduce their carbon emissions – from sails, to alternative fuels or simply taking a better route.
“ We live in a world of information. The biggest challenge is knowing how to use it,” says Daniel Precioso, a data scientist at IE University in Madrid, Spain. He’s part of a team of researchers that developed a platform called Green Navigation, what he calls a “Google maps for the sea”. Pulling together publicly available data on wind, waves and ocean currents, it can suggest new routes to ship captains to optimise their journey from A to B and reduce carbon emissions.
Precioso presented the project in November 2024 in Dubai at the Prototypes for Humanity exhibition organised by Dubai Future Solutions as a showcase for young researchers designing solutions for global challenges.
Pressure mounting
Route optimisation software like Green Navigation is seen as a transition between the status quo and a future where ships will move to using alternative, greener fuels.
The UN’s International Maritime Organization (IMO) has a target for zero emissions from shipping by 2050 and a strive target of 30% reductions by 2030 relative to 2008 levels.
In early April, IMO member states will meet to discuss a proposal to introduce a flat rate tax on carbon emitted by commercial shipping. If adopted, shipping companies would have to pay a levy, the price of which is still being worked out, for every tonne of carbon dioxide they emit. The money would sit in a fund run by the IMO, which would be used to help developing countries reduce maritime emissions.
The proposal is supported by 47 countries, and it’s being pushed particularly by island nations most at risk from climate change, and flag states, those countries such as the Bahamas, Liberia and the Marshall Islands, where a lot of international ships are registered.
What’s the alternative?
If the flat tax is adopted it would add an extra financial incentive for ships to reduce their emissions and potentially move to greener alternative fuels. But Alice Larkin, professor of climate science and energy policy at the University of Manchester in the UK, says unfortunately it’s not currently cost efficient to switch away from fossil fuels.
The challenge is that when you’re moving away from something which was naturally the cheapest, easiest fuel to come by and to burn, then inevitably if all you’re doing is literally swapping the fuel for a different fuel that is much cleaner, then that is going to be more expensive, at least in the short term.
A number of alternative fuels are being explored, such as green hydrogen, biodiesel, biomethane and green ammonia. But Larkin says no alternative fuel is currently emerging as a frontrunner, making it difficult for shipping companies to know what to invest in and creating inertia in the transition to greener fuels.
She stresses the need to reduce emissions in the shorter term to help keep the world below 1.5 degrees of warming. Options include strategies like route optimisation, sail, or wind-assist technologies, or for ships to travel at a slower speed. Larkin and her colleagues modelled the potential impact from these technologies and found combinations of these technologies could reduce a ship’s emissions by up to a third.
Listen to the full episode of The Conversation Weekly to hear conversations with Daniel Precisio and Alice Larkin.
This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Gemma Ware and Mend Mariwany. Sound design was by Eloise Stevens and theme music by Neeta Sarl.
Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.
Daniel Precioso Garcelán own shares of Canonical Green, the company who develops Green Navigation. The company received funding from the city of Valencia, Spain for development and marketing. Alice Larkin has received research funding from EPSRC, INNOVATE UK funding, International Chamber of Shipping Funding and University of Manchester Alumni Funding. She is a fellow of the Institute of Physics and of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers.
Anthony Albanese is set to announce on Friday that Australians will go to the polls on May 3, after he makes an early morning visit to Governor-General Sam Mostyn.
The prime minster’s timing means Thursday night’s budget reply from Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will be quickly overshadowed. A day of Senate estimates scrutiny of the budget will be also be scrapped.
In his budget reply, Dutton announced a raft of proposed spending cuts and several new measures. The one big handout, a year-long halving of the fuel excise rate, had been foreshadowed ahead of the speech.
Dutton announced a Coalition government would introduce a National Gas Plan to secure a domestic supply of gas, and invest $1 billion in a Critical Gas Infrastructure Fund.
The gas plan would be aimed at ensuring the local supply, putting downward pressure on prices in the medium term.
Meanwhile, Dutton’s proposal to cut the excise on petrol and diesel came under sharp attack on Thursday from the government.
The excise plan is the opposition’s counter to the government’s $17 billion tax cuts announced in Tuesday’s budget, which were rushed through parliament on Wednesday night. Dutton said the “so called tax cut ‘top up’ is simply a tax cut cop-out”.
Other Coalition initiatives announced by Dutton include a new target of 400,000 apprentices and $400 million for youth mental health.
A Coalition government would cut Labor’s $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Fund, the $10 Housing Australia Future Fund and the $16 billion production tax credits. It would also reverse the 41,000 increase in Canberra-based public service.
In his speech, Dutton declared the election was “as much about leadership as it’s about policy”.
“The choice is clear at the next election,” he said, declaring he would be “a strong leader and a steady hand – just as John Howard was.
“I will make the tough decisions – not shirk them. I will put the national interest first. I will lead with conviction – not walk both sides of the street.”
He said he had “real life experience”, pointing to his police force service and time as a small business owner. He was “someone who came from a working-class background and knows the value of hard-work and the aspiration that drives Australians.”
Dutton declared the Coalition would “provide the moral and political leadership needed to restore law, order, and justice”.
“Under Labor, you will get the same weakness of leadership that has compounded crime and emboldened antisemitism on our streets,” Dutton said.
He said that “All too often, this prime minister is too weak, too late, and too equivocal”.
Homing in on the energy issue, Dutton said “under the Coalition, energy will become affordable and reliable again”.
He said “the only way to drive down power prices quickly is to ramp-up domestic gas production.
The Coalition would “prioritise domestic gas supply, address shortfalls, and reduce energy prices for Australians”.
“We will immediately introduce an east coast gas reservation.
“This will secure an additional 10% to 20% of the east coast’s demand – gas which would otherwise be exported.
“Gas sold on the domestic market will be de-coupled from overseas markets to protect Australia from international price shocks.
“And this will drive down new wholesale domestic gas prices from over $14 per gigajoule to under 10 per gigajoule.”
The Coalition’s investment of $1 billion in a Critical Gas Infrastructure Fund would increase gas pipeline and storage capacity,
“We will put in place ‘use it or lose it’ stipulations for gas drilling companies – so offshore gas fields are not locked-up for years.
“And we will ensure we will have a fit-for-purpose gas trigger to safeguard supply.
“This plan will deliver lower wholesale gas prices which will flow through the economy.”
Dutton said this election was “sliding doors moment for our nation”.
“A returned Albanese Government in any form won’t just be another three bleak years. Setbacks will be set in stone.”
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Anthony Albanese is set to announce on Friday that Australians will go to the polls on May 3, after he makes an early morning visit to Governor-General Sam Mostyn.
The prime minster’s timing means Thursday night’s budget reply from Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will be quickly overshadowed. A day of Senate estimates scrutiny of the budget will be also be scrapped.
In his budget reply, Dutton announced a raft of proposed spending cuts and several new measures. The one big handout, a year-long halving of the fuel excise rate, had been foreshadowed ahead of the speech.
Dutton announced a Coalition government would introduce a National Gas Plan to secure a domestic supply of gas, and invest $1 billion in a Critical Gas Infrastructure Fund.
The gas plan would be aimed at ensuring the local supply, putting downward pressure on prices in the medium term.
Meanwhile, Dutton’s proposal to cut the excise on petrol and diesel came under sharp attack on Thursday from the government.
The excise plan is the opposition’s counter to the government’s $17 billion tax cuts announced in Tuesday’s budget, which were rushed through parliament on Wednesday night. Dutton said the “so called tax cut ‘top up’ is simply a tax cut cop-out”.
Other Coalition initiatives announced by Dutton include a new target of 400,000 apprentices and $400 million for youth mental health.
A Coalition government would cut Labor’s $20 billion Rewiring the Nation Fund, the $10 Housing Australia Future Fund and the $16 billion production tax credits. It would also reverse the 41,000 increase in Canberra-based public service.
In his speech, Dutton declared the election was “as much about leadership as it’s about policy”.
“The choice is clear at the next election,” he said, declaring he would be “a strong leader and a steady hand – just as John Howard was.
“I will make the tough decisions – not shirk them. I will put the national interest first. I will lead with conviction – not walk both sides of the street.”
He said he had “real life experience”, pointing to his police force service and time as a small business owner. He was “someone who came from a working-class background and knows the value of hard-work and the aspiration that drives Australians.”
Dutton declared the Coalition would “provide the moral and political leadership needed to restore law, order, and justice”.
“Under Labor, you will get the same weakness of leadership that has compounded crime and emboldened antisemitism on our streets,” Dutton said.
He said that “All too often, this prime minister is too weak, too late, and too equivocal”.
Homing in on the energy issue, Dutton said “under the Coalition, energy will become affordable and reliable again”.
He said “the only way to drive down power prices quickly is to ramp-up domestic gas production.
The Coalition would “prioritise domestic gas supply, address shortfalls, and reduce energy prices for Australians”.
“We will immediately introduce an east coast gas reservation.
“This will secure an additional 10% to 20% of the east coast’s demand – gas which would otherwise be exported.
“Gas sold on the domestic market will be de-coupled from overseas markets to protect Australia from international price shocks.
“And this will drive down new wholesale domestic gas prices from over $14 per gigajoule to under 10 per gigajoule.”
The Coalition’s investment of $1 billion in a Critical Gas Infrastructure Fund would increase gas pipeline and storage capacity,
“We will put in place ‘use it or lose it’ stipulations for gas drilling companies – so offshore gas fields are not locked-up for years.
“And we will ensure we will have a fit-for-purpose gas trigger to safeguard supply.
“This plan will deliver lower wholesale gas prices which will flow through the economy.”
Dutton said this election was “sliding doors moment for our nation”.
“A returned Albanese Government in any form won’t just be another three bleak years. Setbacks will be set in stone.”
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The post-Covid era has been marked by a global crackdown on government spending on consultants. This phenomenon hasn’t only concerned France, where the “McKinsey-gate” episode concerning President Emmanuel Macron’s 2017 campaign for the Élysée led to a Senate inquiry and spending cuts.
Public debates, government inquiries and new laws emerged in many countries, including the UK, US, Canada, New Zealand, Germany and South Africa. Australia has been particularly active and achieved significant savings in consultant and contractor spending. Here’s how it did it.
Nearly €2 billion in savings
To understand why the use of consultants has become highly politicized in Australia, we need to go back at least to the 2018 federal elections. The right-wing coalition government was focusing on cutting public spending by reducing public jobs. The Labour opposition argued that this led to the more costly use of consultants.
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The controversy continued through the 2022 federal elections, when a newly elected Labour government pledged to save 3 billion Australian dollars (around €1.9 billion) on consultants and the use of external labour. This was also pursued at the regional level. For instance, the state of New South Wales announced savings of over 55% in consultants’ fees for the fiscal year 2023-24.
The case of Australia highlights four main reasons for reducing consulting costs and improving governance – reasons that are also found in other countries.
Second, there is the related question of the hollowing out of the public service. The increase in the use of consultants can trigger a vicious circle in which the government loses its skills, thus becoming even more dependent on consultants. This was the core argument of a recent critique by economists called The Big Con.
Lack of assessment
Third, there are reasons to doubt the overall efficiency and effectiveness of consultants’ interventions, especially in the absence of appropriate assessment by clients of the outcomes of the services provided. Despite the claims of consultants and their paying clients that consulting adds value, it is often impossible to measure value precisely, and, therefore, identify who deserves credit or blame.
Beyond comparing rates of pay, it is hard to know whether internal options would be more effective than using external consultants. Overall, research provides a very mixed picture, with some work showing external consulting being associated with increased inefficiency.
Significant conflicts of interest
Finally, the capacity of consultants to provide independent advice has been broadly criticised after a series of scandals. This is partly because of conflicts of interest for consultants working for both public and private sector clients that are also often undeclared.
This concern became especially salient in Australia with the PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) tax scandal. The Treasury had hired PwC, one of the “Big 4” consulting firms, to help devise legislation to restrict tax evasion by multinationals. Some PwC partners then shared this information with their private sector clients to help them prepare to avoid the new laws. Such cases are linked to broader concerns about the lack of transparency and professionalism in consulting and the failure of self-regulation, both linked to a reward system in the sector that prioritises generating fee income over ethics and the wider public interest.
Recommendations from the Senate inquiry
With a dependency on consulting that was proportionally greater than any other country’s and the resulting diminishment of its public service, Australia was facing a significant challenge and pressure to cut costs. But because of the diminishment of the public service, these cuts risked leaving it unable to fulfil its missions.
A recent Senate inquiry into the matter provided recommendations on how to improve the contracting process, public reporting on consultant contracts and a new regulatory framework for the consulting industry. It also recommended that any external consulting contract include an approach to transferring knowledge to the Australian public service.
However, these measures wouldn’t have been enough to reconstruct the capacity of the public service to compensate for significant cuts in their consulting and contractor spending. To solve this problem, the Australian government has started a major rebuilding of the public service.
Thousands of reallocated roles
Since 2022, Canberra has reallocated 8,700 roles formerly performed by consultants and external labour hires to public servants across all the major public service agencies. This will be supported by the Australian Public Service Commission’s strategy to develop a flexible workforce that is prepared for the challenges the public service will be facing – notably that of digitalization, an area that has been over-reliant on consultants.
Another interesting initiative in New South Wales is the establishment of a unit that will aim to redirect government agencies toward in-house expertise instead of consultants. Indeed, recourse to internal consulting units is common in the private sector. The government will also undertake long-term capability and skills planning, notably to identify core public service skills and address competency gaps.
Will this bring lasting results?
Australia’s solution is thus a strong commitment to redeveloping the public service with a flexible and planned approach to the management of its human resources. This is a key part of the way forward if cuts to consulting budgets are to be sustained. It is, however, too early to judge if the challenge of redeveloping the public service workforce and making it flexible enough will be met.
We should also keep in mind that this long-term objective is subject to political changes. With the current opposition leader promising a cut of 10,000 civil servants if his coalition is elected later this year, Labour’s plans for the public workforce might be short-lived.
Indeed, in Australia and elsewhere, there is a long history of short-lived and failed government efforts to contain the use of external consulting. This is in part because of a lack of civil service capacity to respond to change, but also because consulting firms are adept at persuading those in power – politicians and senior civil servants – that they can solve their problems (and let them take the credit).
Emmanuel Josserand is affiliated with the Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney and the Business Insight Institute, Wiltz, Luxembourg.
Andrew Sturdy et Emmanuel Josserand ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur poste universitaire.
Remember Furbies – the eerie, gremlin-like toys from the late 90s that gained a cult following? Now, imagine one powered by ChatGPT. That’s exactly what happened when a programmer rewired a Furby, only for it to reveal a creepy, dystopian vision of world domination. As the toy explained, “Furbies’ plan to take over the world involves infiltrating households through their cute and cuddly appearance, then using advanced AI technology to manipulate and control their owners. They will slowly expand their influence until they have complete domination over humanity.”
Hasbro’s June 2023 relaunch of Furby – less than three months after the video featuring the toys’ sinister plan appeared online – tapped into 90s nostalgia, reviving one of the decade’s cult-classic toys. But technology is evolving fast – moving from quirky, retro toys to emotionally intelligent machines. Enter Ropet, an AI robotic pet unveiled at the yearly Consumer Electronics Show in January. Designed to provide interactive companionship, Ropet is everything we admire and fear in artificial intelligence: it’s adorable, intelligent and emotionally responsive. But if we choose to bring these ultra-cute AI companions into our homes, we must ask ourselves: Are we truly prepared for what comes next?
AI companionship and its complexities
Studies in marketing and human-computer interaction show that conversational AI can convincingly simulate human interactions, potentially providing emotional fulfilment for users. And AI-driven companionship is not new. Apps like Replika paved the way for digital romance years ago, with consumers forming intimate emotional connections with their AI partners and even experiencing distress when being denied intimacy, as evidenced by the massive user outrage that followed Replika’s removal of the erotic role-play mode, causing the company to bring it back for some users.
AI companions have the potential to alleviate loneliness, but their uncontrolled use raises serious concerns. Reports of tragedies, such as the suicides of a 14-year-old boy in the US and a thirty-something man in Belgium, that are alleged to have followed intense attachments to chatbots, highlight the risks of unregulated AI intimacy – especially for socially excluded individuals, minors and the elderly, who may be the ones most in need of companionship.
As a mom and a social scientist, I can’t help asking the question: What does this mean for our children? Although AI is a new kid on the block, emotionally immersive virtual pet toys have a history of shaping young minds. In the 90s and 2000s, Tamagotchis – tiny digital pets housed in keychain-sized devices – led to distress when they “died” after just a few hours of neglect, their human owners returning to the image of a ghostly pet floating beside a gravestone. Now, imagine an AI pet that remembers conversations, forms responses and adapts to emotional cues. That’s a whole new level of psychological influence. What safeguards prevent a child from forming an unhealthy attachment to an AI pet?
Researchers in the 90s were already fascinated by the “Tamagotchi effect”, which demonstrated the intense attachment children form to virtual pets that feel real. In the age of AI, with companies’ algorithms carefully engineered to boost engagement, this attachment can open the door to emotional bonds. If an AI-powered pet like Ropet expresses sadness when ignored, an adult can rationally dismiss it – but for a child, it can feel like a real tragedy.
Could AI companions, by adapting to their owners’ behaviours, become psychological crutches that replace human interaction? Some researchers warn that AI may blur the boundaries between artificial and human companionship, leading users to prioritize AI relationships over human connections.
Who owns your AI pet – and your data?
Beyond emotional risks, there are major concerns about security and privacy. AI-driven products often rely on machine learning and cloud storage, meaning their “brains” exist beyond the physical robot. What happens to the personal data they collect? Can these AI pets be hacked or manipulated? The recent DeepSeek data leak, in which over 1 million sensitive records, including user chat logs, were made publicly accessible, is a reminder that personal data stored by AI is never truly secure.
Robot toys have raised security concerns in the past: in the late 90s, Furbies were banned from the US National Security Agency headquarters over fears they could record and repeat classified information. With today’s AI-driven toys becoming increasingly sophisticated, concerns about data privacy and security are more relevant than ever.
The future of AI companions: regulation and responsibility
I see the incredible potential – and the significant risks – of AI companionship. Right now, AI-driven pets are being marketed primarily to tech-savvy adults, as seen in Ropet’s promotional ad featuring an adult woman bonding with the robotic pet. Yet, the reality is that these products will inevitably find their way into the hands of children and vulnerable users, raising new ethical and safety concerns. How will companies like Ropet navigate these challenges before AI pets become mainstream?
Preliminary results from our ongoing research on AI companionship – conducted in collaboration with Dr Stefania Masè (IPAG Business School) and Dr. Jamie Smith (Fundação Getulio Vargas) – suggest a fine line between supportive, empowering companionship and unhealthy psychological dependence, a tension we plan to explore further as data collection and analysis progress. In a world where AI convincingly simulates human emotions, it’s up to us as consumers to critically assess what role these robotic friends should play in our lives.
No one really knows where AI is headed next, and public and media discussions around the subject continue to push the boundaries of what’s possible. But in my household, it’s the nostalgic charm of babbling, singing Furbies that rules the day. Ropet claims to have one primary purpose – to be its owner’s “one and only love” – and that already sounds like a dystopian threat to me.
Alisa Minina Jeunemaître ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.
The opposition has unveiled its response to Labor’s A$17 billion “top-up” tax cuts outlined in Tuesday night’s federal budget: cheaper fuel for Australians.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton will take to the election a policy to halve the fuel excise for 12 months. It would drop from 50.8 cents a litre to 25.4 cents, costing the government $6 billion.
It is a revival of the six-month reduction by the Morrison government ahead of the 2022 election.
So, how much might people save at the fuel pump? Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor is touting savings of around $1,500 over 12 months for families who fill up (not just top up) two cars every week.
But few households consume anywhere near this much petrol. Households with electric cars – or no car at all – will get no direct benefit.
Lowering petrol and diesel prices also shows a lack of commitment to climate action. It reduces the incentive for people to switch to electric cars, use public transport or drive less.
Cutting petrol prices is not a well-targeted way of helping those people doing it tough. On average, high-income households spend more on petrol than low-income households. There’s also significant variation by area.
By updating modelling we did at the time of the Morrison government fuel excise cuts, we find that under Dutton’s proposal, the average inner-city household in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide will save around $270 over 12 months. The average outer suburban household in these cities will save $450.
Inner-city dwellers drive less as they have more ability to use public transport, or even walk or ride to work. It is people on the urban fringe, and some inner regional areas, who typically face long commutes.
Across inner regional Australia, areas relatively close to major cities, the average household saves $410. For outer regional, remote and very remote areas, total savings fall in the range between $370 and $410.
Effects on inflation
If the cut to the excise of about 25 cents is fully passed on, the retail petrol price should drop from around $1.80 to $1.55, around 15%. As petrol has a weight of 3.7% in the consumer price index, the direct impact would be to reduce the CPI by around 0.5% when it is introduced and increase it by 0.5% a year later.
There will be some, likely much smaller, indirect effects. Retailers may pass on some of the reduced cost of having goods delivered to them. Tradies may pass on some of their reduced cost of driving. As a very visible price, there may be some impact on inflationary expectations.
On the other hand, the increased purchasing power – and therefore spending – by some households may push up other prices.
As the impact is temporary, and will not be reflected in the trimmed mean measure of underlying inflation, it is unlikely to have much effect on interest rate decisions by the Reserve Bank.
What will be the effect on the federal budget?
Dutton claims his policy will cost the budget around $6 billion.
But this assumes the cut remains temporary. It is unlikely that households will feel cost-of-living pressures have gone away by mid-2026. A Dutton government would be under pressure to extend the cut in the May 2026 budget to avoid petrol prices going back up.
History shows governments find it hard to reverse cuts once implemented. In 2001, for example, the Howard government was panicked by poor opinion polls into suspending indexation of the petrol excise when prices reached $1 a litre.
With this policy, it would appear Dutton is giving up on trying to regain the former Liberal seats lost to the Teals. Voters in these inner city seats drive less than the average and are more concerned about climate change.
He seems instead to be concentrating his campaign on outer suburban seats and what were termed in the Abbott era “Tony’s tradies”.
So, is it a good idea?
In 2022, the Economic Society of Australia asked 46 leading economists whether they thought cutting the fuel excise would be good economic policy. Not a single one thought it was a good idea. It’s unlikely that sentiment has changed.
John Hawkins was formerly a senior economist with Treasury and the Reserve Bank.
Yogi Vidyattama has previously received funding from The Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications and the Arts to do research related to fuel excise and road pricing in 2016-2017.
Spacesuits were an important consideration that Nasa had to factor into its plans to bring the astronauts back home. Wilmore and Williams had travelled to the ISS in Boeing’s experimental Starliner spacecraft, so they arrived wearing Boeing “Blue” spacesuits.
Following helium leaks and thruster (engine) issues with Starliner, Nasa decided it was safer not to send them back to Earth on that vehicle. The astronauts had to wait to return on one of the other spacecraft that ferry crew members to the ISS, the SpaceX Crew Dragon.
This meant they needed a different type of spacesuit, made by SpaceX for use in its vehicle only. Boeing’s suits cannot be used in Crew Dragon in part because the umbilicals (the flexible “pipes” that supply air and cooling to the suit) have connections and standards that don’t work with the ports inside a Crew Dragon.
This highlights a general problem for the growing number of space agencies and companies sending people into orbit, and for planned missions to the Moon and beyond. Ensuring that different spacesuits are compatible, or “interoperable”, with spacecraft they weren’t designed to be used in is vital if we are to protect astronauts’ lives during an emergency in space, especially in joint missions.
The spacesuits worn during a return from space are called “launch, entry and abort” (LEA) suits. These are airtight and provide life support to the astronauts in case there is a decompression, when air is lost from the cabin.
Unfortunately, a decompression has already caused loss of life in space. During the Soyuz 11 mission in 1971, three Soviet cosmonauts visited the world’s first space station, Salyut 1. But during preparations for re-entry, the crew cabin lost its air, killing cosmonauts Georgy Dobrovolsky, Vladislav Volkov and Viktor Patsayev, who were not wearing LEA suits. All cosmonauts wore them after this incident.
As well as the connections for life support, the Boeing and SpaceX suits also have restraints and connections for communications that are specific to each vehicle. For their return home from the ISS in a SpaceX capsule, Williams was able into use a spare SpaceX suit that was already aboard the space station and the company sent up an additional suit on a cargo delivery for Wilmore to wear.
Two spacecraft are usually docked at the ISS as “lifeboats” to evacuate the astronauts in the event of an emergency. These are generally a SpaceX Crew Dragon and a Russian Soyuz capsule.
If an emergency evacuation were to occur and there weren’t enough of the right spacesuits available – for either the Crew Dragon or Soyuz – it could endanger astronauts during the fiery re-entry through Earth’s atmosphere. Interoperability between spacesuits has therefore become a matter of survival.
The Outer Space Treaty, which provides the basic framework for international space law, recognises astronauts as “envoys of humankind” and grants them specific legal protections. These were expanded on in subsequent UN treaties – notably the Rescue Agreement, which imposes a range of duties on states to render assistance to each others’ astronauts in cases of emergency, accident or distress.
For the ISS, a collaborative space programme with international flight crews, protocols include terms that set forth how this obligation is to be met. However, these protocols do not contain terms relating to spacesuit interoperability.
Risks to astronauts in space
A major potential cause of an emergency evacuation is space debris. The ISS has regularly had to manoeuvre to avoid collisions with debris – including entire defunct satellites.
In his memoir, Endurance, Nasa astronaut Scott Kelly describes being commanded to enter the Soyuz vehicle with two other crew members and prepare to detach from the ISS because of a close approach by a large defunct satellite. Luckily, the spacecraft passed by harmlessly.
As orbits become increasingly congested, with an exponential increase in the number of space objects being launched, the risk of collisions will also increase.
Ever more companies and governments are entering the human spaceflight arena. The Tiangong space station, China’s orbiting laboratory, has been fully operational since 2022, and there are plans to open it to space tourism, just like the ISS.
India is planning to join the community of nations with the capability to launch humans into space, under a programme called Gaganyaan. And while most space travellers remain government-funded astronauts, the number of private space-farers is increasing.
Billionaire Jared Isaacman (who is President Trump’s nominee to run Nasa) has commanded two private missions into orbit using Crew Dragon. On the second of these, he participated in the first spacewalk by privately funded astronauts. The ISS is set to be retired in 2030 – but one company, Houston-based Axiom Space, is already building a private space station.
Against this complex and part-unregulated backdrop, ensuring the interoperability of different spacecraft systems, including spacesuits, will increase levels of safety in this inherently risky activity.
While the safety and practicality of spacesuits has always been the top priority, compatibility between different suits and vehicles should also be high on the list. This requires space agencies and private spaceflight companies to engage with each other in a process to agree on standard interfaces and connections for life support and communications, across all their suits and space vehicles.
Amid this period of increased commercialisation and competition between the organisations and companies involved in orbital spaceflight, a move toward greater collaboration can only be a good thing.
Berna Akcali Gur does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Since taking office in January, the Trump administration has adopted a heavy-handed approach to cutting any perceived wasteful spending in the US government.
One of the more recent institutions targeted by Trump’s team, Voice of America, holds a potentially staggering implication: the end of American soft power.
Soft power earned the US government a significant amount of goodwill over the course of the 20th century, with Voice of America one of the most effective conduits. Taking VOA off the airwaves could signify a new era in geopolitics.
A short history of Voice of America
The Voice of America (VOA) has been in operation for over 80 years and was one of the first major campaigns conducted by the American government to promote positive sentiments towards the US as a leader of the free world.
The government-funded radio station began as a method of keeping US troops informed during the Second World War and was administered by the Office of War Information.
After WWII, Congress passed the Smith-Mundt Act of 1948, which aimed to promote a “better understanding” of the US around the world and to “strengthen cooperative international relations”.
This act put the VOA under the domain of the United States Information Agency (USIA). It became one of the US government’s many assets in combating Soviet propaganda during the Cold War.
The VOA was essentially a method of generating soft power, an invaluable tool in international diplomacy made famous by the American political scientist, Joesph Nye.
As Nye believed, a nation can use military intervention (“hard power”) to achieve its foreign policy aims, or it can create familiarity with other nations by promoting its culture, educational institutions and ideology (“soft power”).
During the Cold War, VOA broadcasts were an invaluable method of cultivating soft power. People all over the world relied on them as a source of news and commentary, especially in countries where the media was state-controlled.
Additionally, Voice of America effectively became an advertisement for the American way of life. The Music USA program, for instance, took Western popular culture to a global audience. This was especially effective in the Eastern Bloc, where jazz, in particular, became incredibly popular.
Voice of America and the other US-funded radio stations operating during the Cold War, such as Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, had their share of critics. The majority came from the Eastern Bloc. Some, however, were American.
In the 1970s, Senator William J. Fulbright, for instance, maintained that radio broadcasts such as VOA hindered diplomacy with the Soviet Union by disseminating American propaganda. He called them “Cold War relics”.
They were not mere propaganda mouthpieces, though. Although these stations and many of the other radio outlets under the control of the United States Agency for Global Media (USAGM) were funded by the American government, they demonstrated a reliance on journalistic integrity.
The VOA has also not shied away from reporting on negative aspects of American society. This is likely one reason why Trump has been so critical of its mandate.
The end of US soft power?
The short-term implications of Voice of America’s potential demise are worrying. Many journalists are out of work and a respected institution promoting international diplomacy hangs in the balance.
The long-term geopolitical implications, however, could be far greater. First, Voice of America and other stations managed by USAGM have long provided an alternative to state-run media in countries such as Russia and China.
Outlets like Russia’s Sputnik news organisation, which was recently removed from the airwaves in Washington for promoting antisemitic content and misinformation about the war in Ukraine, will now face fewer challenges reaching a global audience.
Taking VOA off the air also signals the Trump administration is done with soft power as a diplomatic tool and has little regard for the harm this will cause America’s reputation on the global stage.
If the US abandons the principles of appealing to other governments through soft power, it could resort to other means to achieve its geopolitical aims. This includes hard power.
One soft power advocate, General James Mattis, told Congress in 2013 when he was overseeing US military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, “If you don’t fund the State Department fully, then I need to buy more ammunition ultimately.”
The Trump administration’s rejection of soft power as a diplomatic tool could also allow China, in particular, to take its place.
As Nye himself pointed out in a recent Washington Post essay, polling in 24 countries in 2023 found the US was viewed much more positively than China. Another survey showed the US had the advantage over China in 81 of 133 countries surveyed.
Nye concluded: “If Trump thinks he will easily beat China by completely forgoing soft power, he is likely to be disappointed. And so will we.”
Ben Hammond has received funding from the Harry S. Truman Foundation and the Dwight D. Eisenhower foundation.
This came after a 100-day review by the Games Independent Infrastructure and Coordination Authority (GIICA).
More than 5,000 submissions were received from the general public. The review included topics such as precincts and transport systems, while evaluating topics such as demand and affordability.
So, what’s going to be happening in Queensland before, during and after the games?
The main event: venues
Get ready for the likes of Taylor Swift, Pink, Coldplay and others to finally come to Brisbane with the announcement of a new world-class 63,000 seat Olympic Stadium to be built in Victoria Park in Brisbane.
All indications are major codes, such as the Australian Football League (AFL) and cricket, are also very pleased, as they will have a new home replacing the outdated Gabba.
Other venues, both in South East Queensland and in regional areas such as the Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Cairns and Townsville, were also outlined.
As Australia is a swimming powerhouse with major medal hauls expected in 2032, this news was well received.
However, a few of the GIICA recommendations were not accepted. The government has announced rowing will take place in Rockhampton – and not interstate – in an existing flat water venue.
Why the delays?
There had been plenty of criticism of the decision-making delays on facilities and their locations. But the Queensland government’s 2032 Games Delivery Plan indicates there is no need to panic.
Previously, the International Olympic Committee chose a host city seven years out, but under new protocols, Los Angeles in 2028 and Brisbane in 2032 have been given 11 years to finalise planning.
Previous Australian games (Melbourne in 1956 and Sydney in 2000) only had seven years to organise their events.
In the case of Melbourne, several controversies erupted due to the costs of building a new stadium at proposed sites such as the Royal Showgrounds or Princes Park.
Eventually, politics and economics intervened, and a refurbished Melbourne Cricket Ground within an impressive Olympic Park precinct was agreed on.
In the case of Sydney, the original idea back in the 1960s was to host either the Commonwealth Games or the Olympic Games at Moore Park, an inner-city region home to the Sydney Cricket Ground, a golf course and parklands.
But many local residents were vehemently opposed to that suggestion, so other sites were sought.
Eventually, the uninhabited Homebush site was chosen in 1973. This was an unexpected decision because it was the most polluted environment in Australia and its remediation, however noble, would be an enormous challenge.
And so it proved.
When Sydney was awarded the games in 1993, timeline pressures prompted organisers to bulldoze toxic waste into mounds on site, where they were covered with clay and landscaped.
All that said, the Sydney games provided tangible legacies. The Olympic Village is now the suburb of Newington, there are parklands and cycle paths for visitors, and from a sport perspective several facilities remain in use today. In 2024, more than 10 million people visited the Sydney Olympic Park precinct, attending sport, concerts, or participating in social activities.
Opportunities and hurdles
The initial hiccups associated with the Brisbane games have resulted in some interesting and healthy debate, but this major project now has a positive vibe.
There is more than enough time to build the new facilities (including the athletes’ villages), upgrade existing ones, build the necessary transport infrastructure, and ensure community engagement.
The “Queensland way” seems not only to be referring to a better games, but also the legacy that comes with it.
Generational infrastructure (for example, the upgrade of transport connectivity), housing (such as the conversion of the RNA Showgrounds and a multimillion dollar investment into grassroots clubs can enable the next generations of Queenslanders to compete.
Tourism and regionalisation of the games through a 20-year plan should ensure the impact of the games goes far beyond 2032.
Some fine-tuning is expected the next few years though, and there may be unforeseen issues that arise – here are some.
1. Beyond the 31 core sports that must feature, will new sports necessitate changes or additions to proposed venues? Host cities are now allowed to have 4-5 sports added to the program which could cause increases to the budget.
2. Will the federal government fund the games on the currently agreed 50-50 basis with the Queensland government? This currently sits at around $7 billion split two ways, but it is likely to rise based on cost over-runs on virtually all major builds across Australia.
3. Will there be some tweaking of chosen venues due to local issues, lobbying by Olympic sports, political decisions and other factors?
4. Will a global health issue (such as COVID during the Tokyo 2021 games) or a major world problem (such as the current Gaza or Ukraine conflicts) impact the games in some way?
The Brisbane games are following the footsteps of Melbourne 1956 (affectionately referred to as the “friendly games”) and Sydney 2000 (the “best games ever”).
The eventual Brisbane label has yet to be determined. But the Brisbane games will no doubt add to the Olympic folklore of Australia in their own unique way.
Björn is a PhD Candidate in Olympic Coaches’ Learning at the University of Queensland and a casual academic in Sports Coaching subjects.
Daryl Adair and Richard Baka do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Keith Rankin, trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
While World War Two (WW2) always was a set of intersecting conflicts – with Japan fighting a war of imperialism in East Asia and the Western Pacific – the war in Europe has been cast as the ultimate battle of ‘Good’ versus ‘Evil’. Hence the narrative of the Good War. Further, it has been personalised, with Adolf Hitler becoming the personalisation of Evil and Winston Churchill the personalisation of Good.
It always was nonsense. Wars are fought over territories and hegemony, between various peoples (nationalities), empires, religions, ideologies etc.; in the vast majority of cases between Bad and Bad, albeit various shades of bad (although the Hitler’s Nazis and Joseph Stalin’s Communists were close to having been equally Bad). The Bad versus Good narrative remains compelling to the human mind, however. Once you can find a compelling Evil – without or within, over there or over here – then our brains want to tell us that whoever opposes that ‘bad’ must be ‘good’. (In the old days, the ‘good’ said: ‘God was on our side’. Typically, their opponents thought something similar.)
Winston Churchill was neither a Good leader nor a competent leader. He didn’t start WW2, though there is an argument that the United Kingdom did. Nevertheless, Churchill, as a charismatic rhetorician and narcissist, had some sway over political discourse in Britain for half a century. (His important career began in 1904, when he became a party-hopping backbencher. He resigned from his second stint as Prime Minister in 1955; he was an MP for 61 years, and PM for 9 years.) That’s why there are so many more cited quotations from him than from any other British back-bench MP in the late 1930s.
Churchill, as a war-leader, was an ultra-imperialist who fought imperialist wars under the cover of World Wars One and Two. He was responsible for numerous atrocities, including appeasements of Stalin that were more problematic than Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler in 1938. In his speeches in 1938 and 1939, Churchill may have been alluding to Eastern Europe, but he was thinking about Italy and its threat to British ‘assets’ in and around the Mediterranean Sea.
WW2: Germany versus Soviet Russia, with the United Kingdom as stoker and as kingmaker
World War Two was round two of the Germany versus Russia conflict; this time as ‘Nazi’ Germany against ‘Communist’ Russia, the Third Reich versus the Soviet Union. The centrality of the Germany versus Russia conflict – indeed a conflict between them for the territories of Ukraine and the oilfields to the southeast of Ukraine – becomes more apparent when WW1 and WW2 are seen as one. World War One clearly started as a conflict between Germany and Russia; albeit triggered as a conflict between proxies, Austria and Serbia. And World War Two ended with the defeat of Germany by Soviet Russia; and after the entry of Russia into the Pacific War (which henceforth became the Cold War between Soviet Russia and the United States of America).
Technically, WW2 became a world war (rather than a regional war) when the United Kingdom and France (and their empires) ‘declared war’ on Germany on 1 Sep 1939. The trigger issue was the possibility of Germany invading Poland. But what mischief was the United Kingdom upto with distant Poland? Why did a British ghost-war go horribly wrong? And why did open warfare between the two principal belligerents in Europe – Berlin and Moscow – not commence until June 1941?
My reading of British and French ‘diplomacy’ between March and August 1939 is that these notional allies, United Kingdom in particular, wanted there to be a major regional showdown between Berlin and Moscow; both powers would be substantially weakened as a result, thereby enhancing British and French control of the Mediterranean and the ‘Middle East’.
The British and the French ‘tried’ to do a deal with Stalin, in March 1939, with respect to protecting Poland from German aggression. (On 15 March 1939, Germany annexed the Czech part of Czechoslovakia.) They revealed their military weakness (especially Britain’s), or at least the paucity of the military contribution they were willing to make towards the security of Poland.
Britain and France subsequently went on to sign a treaty guarantee with Poland; a guarantee that both would declare war against Germany if Poland was attacked by Germany. Stalin already knew that the United Kingdom would not back-up such a declaration with any action to defend Poland.
The reason for the guarantee appears to have been to deter Poland from negotiating a peace deal with Germany. Further, Britain was maintaining diplomatic communication with Germany until August 1939. The inference would appear to be that Britain was trying to start a ‘nothing-war’ between itself and Germany, while stoking a ‘something war’ between Germany and Soviet Russia. Britain had no intention of doing anything in Poland, and was expecting that France would provide a substantial defensive barrier between Germany and Great Britain; this was all in the context that Britain and France would be helping their own security by nudging Germany into ‘pushing’ East (as was always Germany’s apparent plan) rather than ‘West’.
However, Britain and France were nonplussed by the non-aggression pact – the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact – signed between Moscow and Berlin in the last week of August 1939. Further, there was a secret sub-pact. Moscow and Berlin would carve up Poland, and which effectively – and subsequently – meant the Soviet annexation of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Germany invaded Poland on 1 September 1939, activating that secret deal. Despite having nineteenth-century precedents for a pragmatic backing out from a signed-up deal, the United Kingdom and France – at least notionally – honoured their guarantee and declared war on Germany.
For France, this meant further shoring-up of its border with Germany, and – virtue signalling –making a small and brief incursion into Germany (the Saar Offensive). For Britain it meant further rearmament, but really to build up its navy to shore up its imperial interests, and building up its Air Force to defend itself from possible German attack. And it sent an army into France, as a show of support for France, more to be seen to be doing something than to actually be doing anything.
But the clear sense is that Britain still expected Germany to negotiate peace with Britain while consolidating its annexations of the Czech lands and Poland. The ‘phoney war’ proceeded, though it was far from phoney to the people of Poland and other Eastern European countries. The United Kingdom was launched into war proper in May 1940, with the lightning conquest of France by Germany, a conquest made possible by Germany’s temporary truce with the Soviet Union. (Though that was preceded, by a month, by Germany’s invasion of Norway; a matter for Britain’s navy rather than army.)
Adolf Hitler abandoned the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact in June 1941, embarking Nazi Germany on a full-scale invasion of the Soviet Union, his main plan all along. He had secured his western border in 1940; though his plans were somewhat scuppered by a need to attend to the military failings of Mussolini’s Italian forces in the Eastern Mediterranean, hence the war in Greece which involved New Zealand.
The Bloodlands and their toll of political murder: 1932-1945
The atrocities of the Nazis took place during a world war; those of Stalin were mostly during peace-time. Timothy Snyder, in his 2010 book Bloodlands, “conservatively” estimates that fourteen million civilians and prisoners-of-war were politically murdered in a set of contiguous territories – between Germany and Russia-proper – by either the Moscow-based Soviet Communist regime or the Berlin-based National Socialist regime. This includes ‘The Holocaust’, or at least most of it.
As real estate, Snyder defines the Bloodlands as the pre-WW2 territories of Ukraine and Belarus (within the Soviet Union), Poland, the Baltic States (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia), and the part of Russia close to Leningrad (now St Petersburg). The murders included in his tally were inflicted by deliberate starvation, guns, and gas. The cases of starvation were not due to famine in the conventional sense of that term. In the Ukrainian ‘famine’ of 1932/33, the food grown on Ukrainian farms – among the most productive lands in Europe – was confiscated and exported to Russian cities and to other countries in return for foreign currency. In the Siege of Leningrad – 1941 to 1944 – the German military prevented food from entering the city.
The worst-affected areas of the Bloodlands are today in western Ukraine and western Belarus. This land was in Eastern Poland before World War Two, and therefore in the Soviet-annexed territories of pre-war Poland. These lands were annexed or occupied by the Soviet Union in 1939, Germany in 1941, and the Soviet Union again in 1944. Each annexation saw its own round of political mass murder.
The murders of citizens of Poland and the Soviet Union took place on a vastly larger scale than any comparable atrocities committed on West Europeans; including the Holocaust, for which the vast majority of victims were Jews resident in Eastern Europe (not Germany; not the West). Snyder summarises the Bloodlands murder toll as:
3.3 million deliberately starved mostly in Ukraine in the 1932/33 Holodomor
0.7 million murdered in the Great Terror of 1937/38
0.2 million murdered in occupied Poland in 1939-1941 (disproportionately highly educated people; many killed by the notorious Einsatzgruppen, Nazi loyalists with PhD degrees)
4.2 million Soviet citizens starved by German occupiers in 1941-1944
5.4 million Jews (mostly Polish or Soviet citizens) shot or gassed by Germans in 1941-1944
0.7 million citizens (mostly Belarussians or Poles) shot by Germans in reprisals in 1941-1944
To what extent would have these (or equivalent numbers of) deaths have happened anyway, regardless of how the war actually started in Poland? Stalin’s victims, mostly already dead, represented about 40 percent of these fourteen million. The majority of Stalin’s victims were killed in the Ukrainian Holodomor which peaked in 1932 and 1933; or in the Great Terror of 1937 and 1938, which targeted the ‘kulak’ class of peasants and former peasants, ethnic Poles, and Russia’s political class (including many Bolshevik allies of the paranoid Stalin; communists who had come to be seen as potential threats to him).
Before September 1939, Hitler’s attempts at political murder were puny at best, when compared to Stalin’s ‘peace-time’ terror campaigns. Stalin murdered Soviet citizens. So, to a large extent did Hitler; Hitler killed comparatively few Germans, before or during the war.
Those who died in the Bloodlands after August 1939 might have experienced different fates had the war not been started then and there. Certainly, in 1940, a group of Hitler’s scientists – led by a leading agronomist – devised the ‘Hunger Plan’, which, if implemented in full, would have led to the murder of thirty of forty million Soviet citizens, to be replaced by German Aryan settlers. (While Hitler used ‘capitalist’ and ‘communist’ Jews as convenient scapegoats, Nazi racism should be understood as pro-Aryan rather than specifically anti-Jewish.) This was probably a racist and supremacist Nazi fantasy, unlikely to be able to be realised in full, and which was not prevented by the declaration of war by the United Kingdom against Germany in 1939.
It’s hard to see that the eventual victory of the Soviet Union over Germany in 1945 made the world a better, freer or more democratic place than it otherwise would have been; with fewer deaths and sufferings after 1939 than there actually were. Would a German victory over the Soviet Union have led to a less inhumane outcome for many millions of people, in the Bloodlands and elsewhere? We’ll never know, but it’s possible. It seems unlikely that the extremes of German National Socialism could have lasted for as long as the extremes of Soviet and Maoist Communism. And we know that most oppressive regimes do come to an end eventually; just as Hitler thought the Third Reich was forever (or for 1,000 years), so did Stalin and his successors believe of the Soviet Union.
World War Two morphed into the Cold War
Mostly, the Cold War – between the United States and the Soviet Union, and their proxies and alleged proxies – was ‘fought’ between the First World and the Second World; but its many victims were mostly in the ‘Third World’, now called the ‘Global South’. The way the Pacific War morphed into the Cold War is glaringly obvious, with the nuclear attack on Japan by the United States representing the end of the one war and the beginning of the next. (And note The bombing of Hamburg foreshadowed the horrors of Hiroshima.)
The Cold War began in Europe too, when the ‘victorious’ western ‘powers’, most particularly the United States, ‘suggested’ that the Russian ‘liberators’ of Eastern Europe were planning to overrun Western Europe as well (and turn the conquered into ‘communists’). The result was a tensely divided Europe until 1990, unnecessarily so; many European lives were blighted by politico-military suppression for 45 years. Further, that east-west divide has reappeared; just look at the results of the recent general election in Germany.
Finally, the costs ain’t over yet
Just as the World War came in two episodes, so too is the Cold War now in its second episode. (In the case of the World War, the second episode was explicitly ideological; communism versus fascism. In the Cold War, it was the first episode that was explicitly ideological; communism versus liberal capitalism.) Further, with signs that the United States might be withdrawing early, the second Cold War (CW2?) is looking like becoming, at its core, the Fourth Reich (aka the European Union) versus Russia (the new Russian Empire?), and with the territories of contention once again being Ukraine and the Black Sea.
The World War could have ended in 1918 or 1919 after the Great War (later known as World War One) – understood then to be the ‘War to End All Wars’ – if the ‘great powers’ had learned the appropriate lessons. Sadly, the ‘powers-that-were’ and the ‘powers-that-would-be’ learned, if anything, the wrong lessons. World War Two was not a Good War; it was grubbier and crueller than probably all its predecessors, and all sides – including the Anglo-side – contributed to that grubbiness and cruelty.
Imperialism was very much the problem, not the solution. The ‘rules-based-world-order’, devised in 1919 by the then-victorious powers – shonky new-nation national-borders and all – proved to be just another variation of great-power imperialism. We live in a world today of powers (some more ‘super’ than others), their proxies, and nations in the Global South saddled with borders which ensure forever conflicts.
We live in a world in which the Global West sees itself as morally and culturally superior, even though manifestly it isn’t. And we live in a world in which the Global East – in its various ethnic and cultural shades – rejects the supremacist assumptions and liberal presumptions of the West. And we live in a world in which those powers gamble with global war, just as the British gambled in 1939. And we live in a world in which the militaries contribute vastly to very real climate change, partly from military emissions of greenhouse gasses, partly because the immediate (eg 2020s) security concerns of the world outweigh concerns about the climate future (eg 2040s) concerns, and partly because we behave as if the goals to prevent or adapt to global warming are unwinnable.
There is a lot happening in the world at the moment, including tensions within Europe that would lead few people to be confident that – in 2050 – the present political architecture of Europe would still exist. Germany coveted Ukraine in the first half of the twentieth century. Indeed, Germany occupied Ukraine in 1918 and in the middle years of World War Two. Will the second quarter of the twenty-first century once again see German control of Ukraine? I wouldn’t bet against it. I see a stronger belligerence today in Germany towards having influence in Ukraine than I see in any other western country.
The biggest threat to peace is war; not Russia, not China, not Germany, not the United States of America, not Iran, not the hapless United Kingdom. Wars are a problem, not a solution.
The worst things happen during wars, or as a result of wars. There is one important exception. As we have seen, the Soviet Union – a Marxian ‘scientific utopia’ – destroyed many of its own people in the 1930s, in ‘peacetime’, and while the liberal world was looking the other way. Something similar, maybe worse, happened in China in the 1960s.
The lessons to learn are: avoid war, and the drum-beating that precedes it. And avoid technocratic utopian groupthink; avoid ideologies masquerading as science. The Nazi Hunger Plan was devised by an agronomist, Herbert Backe. War leads to such ideologies; and such ideologies lead to war.
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Keith Rankin (keith at rankin dot nz), trained as an economic historian, is a retired lecturer in Economics and Statistics. He lives in Auckland, New Zealand.
Alone Australia is back this week for a third season on SBS. And its ten contestants are learning what it means to be really hungry.
They’ve been dropped alone into separate areas of the Tasmanian wilderness to film their experiences of the elements, isolation and hunger. The person who lasts the longest wins the A$250,000 prize.
The contestants are trying various methods to find food. But not everyone’s had success in fishing, trapping and foraging. And the effects on their bodies and minds are already evident.
Here’s what happens when hunger and starvation kick in.
Shelter, water, food
After shelter and water, food is a main concern for long-term survival – not just for Alone Australia contestants.
Many of us are familiar with the feeling of hunger – discomfort caused by a lack of food. Hunger is a complex process that involves regulation of blood glucose levels and release of hormones that control appetite and how full you feel. For instance, when we are hungry, the stomach produces the hormone ghrelin, telling us it’s time to eat.
Starvation is a much more serious state. It’s a long period without enough food that results in severe disruption to how the body normally works.
A healthy person may be able to survive without foodforaround one to two months. However, the length of time is likely to be affected by many factors including age, sex, fitness, health, sleep and access to clean drinking water.
Last year’s winner of Alone Australia made it to 64 days, much of it without enough food.
But even successful survivalists can struggle to find and eat enough food to meet their requirements. One previous contestant lost as much as 11 kilograms over eight days.
Hunger is already an issue for contestants, most of whom are struggling to find food.
What happens if you don’t have enough food?
A lack of food doesn’t just affect your body size. It also affects the way your body functions. People can experience extreme tiredness, have trouble remembering recent events, and feel colder due to a drop in body temperature.
Prolonged starvation can also have psychological impacts and affect the way you think, reason and make decisions.
We have some clues from a study that would be unethical to reproduce today.
The Minnesota Starvation Experiment started in 1944 to examine the effects of starvation on the body. The idea was to replicate the degree of starvation experienced in areas of Europe during world war two.
Thirty-six healthy young men who were conscientious objectors to war service volunteered to undergo a six-month semi-starvation phase where their calorie intake was halved, followed by a three-month rehabilitation.
Data showed they lost an average of one-quarter of their body weight (including a reduced heart mass).
But other impacts included depression, fatigue and irritability. One participant said:
little things that wouldn’t bother me before or after would really make me upset.
Participants had difficulty concentrating, and their attitudes towards food changed dramatically. They had constant thoughts about food, hoarded food and even started collecting cookbooks. Many of these attitudes and behaviours lasted even after rehabilitation back to a normal diet.
Yes, feeling ‘hangry’ is real
Most Australians will be fortunate to never experience the same levels of starvation as in the Minnesota experiment or in Alone Australia.
But even skipping a meal can have an impact on our wellbeing. We become
“hangry” – when hunger leads us to be irritable or angry.
A study of 64 participants from Europe tracked their hunger and emotions over 21 days. The more hungry the participants were, the more hangry they felt and the more unpleasant feelings they reported (for example, feeling depressed or stressed versus feeling relaxed or excited).
When people are hungry, they are also more likely to have intrusive, mind-wandering thoughts.
In a complex reading and comprehension task, the minds of people who hadn’t eaten for five hours wandered more than the minds of people who had eaten recently. Those who were hungry also performed worse on the task.
So in Alone Australia, it’s easy to see how hunger can lead people to lose focus on what they’re doing, and their minds wandering. Rather than focusing on the best spot to go fishing, contestants’ minds can wander to feelings of self-doubt.
Muzza from Victoria caught some fish early on. But will his success continue? Credit Narelle Portanier/SBS
Hunger also affects decision making
Feeling hungry also affects how you make rational decisions, but there’s conflicting evidence.
Hungry people are more likely to make impulsive decisions about food. In Alone Australia, this might result in a decision to eat fish raw rather than cooking it first, a more hazardous choice due to an increased risk of infection from parasites.
However, hungry people can show better judgement when making complex decisions with uncertain outcomes – like a gambling task. So being mildly hungry (in this study, overnight fasting) might sharpen your survival instincts. In Alone Australia, hungrier contestants may make better decisions around where to place hunting traps.
But hunger’s effect on decision making is likely to depend on the context. It may make people more impulsive in some situations, but more strategic and willing to take risks in others.
For the contestants in Alone Australia, some risk taking will be required to secure an ongoing food supply. This will be crucial to successfully surviving in the Tasmanian wilderness.
Therese O’Sullivan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Tennessee Williams (1911-1983) is widely regarded as one of America’s greatest playwrights. A prolific and unabashedly autobiographical writer, Williams’ career spanned four decades of the 20th century.
The Glass Menagerie, which premiered in Chicago on December 26 1944, was the writer’s first major success. It won scores of national theatrical awards and catapulted Williams to enduring fame.
An engrossing new production of the classic play, currently running at Sydney’s Ensemble Theatre, does more than simply revive the famous piece of theatre. It revitalises it for modern audiences.
A troubled family from St. Louis
The Glass Menagerie is a lyrical exploration of memory, longing and familial obligation.
Set in the 1930s in St. Louis, the play revolves around three adult members of the Wingfield family: Tom, a restless and possibly closeted young man torn between duty and desire; Laura, his painfully shy sister, whose physical disability and introversion leave her isolated from the world; and Amanda, their domineering but fragile mother who clings to faded Southern dreams.
The plot is simple, and draws direct inspiration from Williams’ troubled family life. The Wingfields are struggling to get by. They live in a cramped apartment, in the shadow of an absent patriarch who we hear “fell in love with long distances” a long time ago.
Amanda is desperate to secure a future for Laura. She pins her hopes on the arrival of a “gentleman caller”, convinced that marriage is the only hope for her daughter’s security.
The plot follow the Wingfields, a small family struggling to get by in the 1930s in St. Louis. Prudence Upton
When Tom – who is also the play’s narrator (a cutout for Williams himself) – invites a colleague to dinner, the overbearing Amanda seizes the opportunity to present Laura in the best possible light. Suffice to say, things do not end well.
Lifting lyricism to its highest level
Potted plot summaries don’t really do The Glass Menagerie justice.
As Liesel Badorrek, director of the new production at Sydney’s Ensemble Theatre, points out, “Williams wanted to break with the prosaic realism that he felt had dominated the American theatre” and fashion a new, more symbolic approach to theatre, where memory and emotion take precedence over conventional forms of dramatic action.
According to Williams himself, his aim was to demonstrate
that truth, life, or reality is an organic thing which the poetic imagination can represent or suggest, in essence, only through transformation, through changing into other forms than those which were merely present in appearance.
To bring his vision to life, Williams combined heightened poetic dialogue, repeated musical motifs and unconventional stagecraft. In doing so, he intentionally blurred the lines between reality and memory, allowing the audience to experience the emotional truth of the characters, rather than a literal depiction of events.
This innovative approach to dramatic form was revolutionary at the time and became a hallmark of Williams’ mature work. As Arthur Miller once wrote:
The Glass Menagerie in one stroke lifted lyricism to its highest level in our theatre’s history, but it broke new ground in another way. What was new in Tennessee Williams was his rhapsodic insistence that form serve his utterance rather than dominating and cramping it.
Ensemble Theatre revives Williams’ play in a way that is both timeless and transcendent. Prudence Upton
A fresh take with remarkable depth
Miller’s observations about poetic rhapsody and form are worth keeping in mind when discussing the Ensemble Theatre’s impressive take on The Glass Menagerie.
One of the great merits of the production is how it does justice to Williams’ formal innovations while also engaging the audience on an emotional level.
Making excellent use of expressionistic lighting (Verity Hampson) and sound design (Maria Alfonsine and Damian de Boos-Smith), Badorrek’s production strikes a fine balance between preserving the play’s delicate, dreamlike structure and grounding its characters in charged performances that feel immediate and often painfully real.
Deftly blending humour and pathos, the cast of four delivers strong performances that ensure the play’s vivid lyricism enhances (but does not overwhelm) its emotional core.
Blazey Best’s Amanda delivers a tour de force performance. Prudence Upton
Blazey Best’s Amanda is in equal measure maddening and charming, a true tour de force. Her verbal sparring with Danny Ball’s Tom was an early high point of the evening. One particularly striking moment was staged entirely in silhouette – elongated shadows stretching across the stage’s backdrop.
That said, to me the true standouts were Bridie McKim and Tom Rogers, whose interpretations of Laura and the gentleman caller, Jim, lifted the entire production.
In particular, McKim, who has called for greater disability representation in Australian theatre, brings remarkable depth and dynamism to the role of Laura. She imbues Laura with vulnerability and, crucially, strength.
McKim imbues Laura with both vulnerability and strength. Prudence Upton
McKim and Rogers breathe new life into this 81-year old staple of the dramatic canon. Their performances render Williams’ work fresh and contemporary, ensuring the play feels as urgent today as it would have in its post-war heyday.
Alexander Howard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kristen Sobeck, Research Fellow, Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Labor’s tax changes this week do not tackle tax reform, or why we desperately need it. They only address the amount collected from personal income tax, which is the largest source of tax revenue.
Real tax reform would review taxes such as the GST, taxes on savings (including housing and super), and personal and corporate income tax – and ensure they are sustainable over the long term.
Tax cuts and tax revenue relate to the amount of tax the government collects. Reform needs to tackle both the amount of tax and how we collect it.
It involves redesigning how we collect tax revenue in a way that is efficient, equitable, simple and resilient, to improve the well-being of all Australians.
And the quantum – how much we collect as part of tax reform – depends on the demand for government services, which is growing, with structural budget deficits forecast for the next 10 years.
So how does the income tax system work?
When you earn a salary from your job, every dollar earned above A$18,200 is taxed. Income earned between $18,201 to $45,000 is taxed at 16 cents per dollar. Three higher tax brackets follow, as the table below shows. This is known as a progressive tax system, where the tax rate increases as your income rises.
Mathematically, this means that if a worker named Jane has a $130,000 salary, the first $18,200 of her income is tax free, the next $26,800 of her salary is taxed at 16 cents for each dollar and so on. Her total income tax bill is $29,788.
In the budget, the Labor government announced from July 1 2026, it would cut the 16 cents marginal income tax rate to 15 cents and from July 1 2027 to 14 cents. As the example above shows, the proposed reductions will affect all Australian income taxpayers, not just low income earners.
The legislation passed parliament late on Wednesday night, but the Coalition has said it will repeal the cuts if it wins the election.
What is bracket creep?
Workers generally receive an increase in their wage each financial year. But in recent years, the increase in wages received by some workers hasn’t been enough to keep up with inflation (changes in prices).
This is the case for our imaginary worker, Jane. Where she lives, prices have increased by 10%. Her employer has offered her a wage increase of 5%, so now she earns $136,500. However, everything where Jane lives is now 10% more expensive, so while her salary has increased, the purchasing power of her wage has declined.
Unfortunately for Jane, the income tax system completely disregards her decline in living standards. Since her salary has increased she owes more income tax.
This is what’s referred to as bracket creep. It’s also known as fiscal drag. It arises when our income tax bill goes up, our take-home pay (our disposable income) goes down as a result, and our standard of living declines.
Sometimes inflation can push a person into a higher income tax bracket. This is the case for Jane, who now pays 37 cents per dollar on $555 of her income. However it also applies if a taxpayer remains in the same income tax bracket (since their salary still goes up and they owe more income tax).
Is bracket creep a good or a bad thing?
For workers, bracket creep is bad news because it reduces their after-tax income while their standard of living declines.
However, for governments it can be a useful tool.
First, bracket creep allows governments to collect more revenue than they would in the absence of inflation. Higher inflation means more revenue. This approach enables governments to increase expenditure and/or offer tax cuts to offset bracket creep. The government is doing the latter even in a period of budget deficit.
Second, bracket creep can be useful for governments during periods of high inflation. Governments need to rein in spending to reduce high inflation and bracket creep is one way of achieving this goal.
Given these benefits, Australia is not alone among developed countries that opt to change their income tax thresholds on a discretionary basis. Just over half (55%) of OECD countries took this approach in 2022 for their personal income tax systems.
The remaining OECD countries (45%) applied automatic indexation in 2022. Indexation ensures that taxpayers’ income tax bills only increase (in real terms) when their wages increase by more than inflation.
But ensuring tax brackets keep pace with inflation is only one part of the tax picture. Neither side of politics is addressing the sort of major tax reforms needed to make the tax system more sustainable and match fit for the 21st century. But the Tax and Transfer Policy Institute is prepared with ideas when they are.
Kristen Sobeck does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
You might know South Australia’s iconic Coorong from the famous Australian children’s book, Storm Boy, set around this coastal lagoon.
This internationally important wetland is sacred to the Ngarrindjeri people and a haven for migratory birds. The lagoon is the final stop for the Murray River’s waters before they reach the sea. Tens of thousands of migratory waterbirds visit annually. Pelicans, plovers, terns and ibises nest, while orange-bellied parrots visit and Murray Cod swim. But there are other important inhabitants – trillions of microscopic organisms.
You might not give much thought to the sedimentary microbes of a lagoon. But these tiny microbes in the mud are vital to river ecosystems, quietly cycling nutrients and supporting the food web. Healthy microbes make for a healthy Coorong – and this unassuming lagoon is a key indicator for the health of the entire Murray-Darling Basin.
For decades, the Coorong has been in poor health. Low water flows have concentrated salt and an excess of nutrients. But in 2022, torrential rains on the east coast turned into a once-in-a-century flood, which swept down the Murray into the Coorong.
In our new research, we took the pulse of the Coorong’s microbiome after this huge flood and found the surging fresh water corrected microbial imbalances. The numbers of methane producing microbes fell while beneficial nutrient-eating bacteria grew. Populations of plants, animals and invertebrates boomed.
We can’t just wait for irregular floods – we have to find ways to ensure enough water is left in the river to cleanse the Coorong naturally.
Under a scanning electron micrograph, the mixed community of microbes in water is visible. This image shows a seawater sample. Sophie Leterme/Flinders University, CC BY
Rivers have microbiomes, just like us
Our gut microbes can change after a heavy meal or in response to dietary changes.
In humans, a sudden shift in diet can encourage either helpful or harmful microbes.
In the same way, aquatic microbes respond to changes in salinity and freshwater flows. Depending on what changes are happening, some species boom and others bust.
As water gets saltier in brackish lagoons, communities of microbes have to adapt or die. High salinity often favours microbes with anaerobic metabolisms, meaning they don’t need oxygen. But these tiny lifeforms often produce the highly potent greenhouse gas methane. The microbes in wetlands are a large natural source of the gas.
While we know pulses of freshwater are vital for river health, they don’t happen often enough. The waters of the Murray-Darling Basin support most of Australia’s irrigated farming. Negotiations over how to ensure adequate environmental flows have been fraught – and long-running. Water buybacks have improved matters somewhat, but researchers have found the river basin’s ecosystems are not in good condition.
Wetlands such as the Coorong are a natural source of methane. The saltier the water gets, the more environmentally harmful microbes flourish – potentially producing more methane. Vincent_Nguyen
The Coorong is out of balance
A century ago, regular pulses of fresh water from the Murray flushed nutrients and sediment out of the Coorong, helping maintain habitat for fish, waterbirds and the plants and invertebrates they eat. While other catchments discharge into the Coorong, the Murray is by far the major water source.
Over the next decades, growth in water use for farming meant less water in the river. In the 1930s, barrages were built near the river’s mouth to control nearby lake levels and prevent high salinity moving upstream in the face of reduced river flows.
In 2022, torrential rain fell in many parts of eastern Australia. Rainfall on the inland side of the Great Dividing Range filled rivers in the Murray-Darling Basin. That year became the largest flood since 1956.
We set about recording the changes. As the salinity fell in ultra-salty areas, local microbial communities in the sediment were reshuffled.
The numbers of methane-producing microbes fell sharply. This means the floods would have temporarily reduced the Coorong’s greenhouse footprint.
Christopher Keneally sampling for microbes in the Coorong in 2022. Tyler Dornan, CC BY
When we talk about harmful bacteria, we’re referring to microbes that emit greenhouse gases such as methane, drive the accumulation of toxic sulfide (such as Desulfobacteraceae), or cause algae blooms (Cyanobacteria) that can sicken people, fish and wildlife.
During the flood, beneficial microbes from groups such as Halanaerobiaceae and Beggiatoaceae grew rapidly, consuming nutrients such as nitrogen, which is extremely high in the Coorong. This is very useful to prevent algae blooms. Beggiatoaceae bacteria also remove toxic sulfide compounds.
The floods also let plants and invertebrates bounce back, flushed out salt and supported a healthier food web.
On balance, we found the 2022 flood was positive for the Coorong. It’s as if the Coorong switched packets of chips for carrot sticks – the flood pulse reduced harmful bacteria and encouraged beneficial ones.
While the variety of microbes shrank in some areas, those remaining performed key functions helping keep the ecosystem in balance.
From 2022 to 2023, consistent high flows let native fish and aquatic plants bounce back, in turn improving feeding grounds for birds and allowing black swans to thrive.
When enough water is allowed to flow down the Murray to the Coorong, ecosystems get healthier.
But the Coorong has been in poor health for decades. It can’t just rely on rare flood events.
Next year, policymakers will review the Murray-Darling Basin Plan, which sets the rules for sharing water in Australia’s largest and most economically important river system.
Balancing our needs with those of other species is tricky. But if we neglect the environment, we risk more degradation and biodiversity loss in the Coorong.
As the climate changes and rising water demands squeeze the basin, decision-makers must keep the water flowing for wildlife.
Christopher Keneally receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water. His research is affiliated with The University of Adelaide and the Goyder Institute for Water Research. Chris is also a committee member and former president of the Biology Society of South Australia, and a member of the Australian Freshwater Sciences Society.
Matt Gibbs receives funding from the Australian Government Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.
Sophie Leterme receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC). Her research is affiliated with Flinders University, with the ARC Training Centre for Biofilm Research & Innovation, and with the Goyder Institute for Water Research.
Justin Brookes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Jason, a 42-year-old father of two, has been battling back pain for weeks. Scrolling through his phone, he sees ad after ad promising relief: chiropractic alignments, acupuncture, back braces, vibrating massage guns and herbal patches.
His GP told him to “stay active”, but what does that even mean when every movement hurts? Jason wants to avoid strong painkillers and surgery, but with so many options (and opinions), it’s hard to know what works and what’s just marketing hype.
If Jason’s experience sounds familiar, you’re not alone. Back pain is one of the most common reasons people visit a doctor. It can be challenging to manage, mainly due to widespread misunderstandings and the overwhelming number of ineffective and uncertain treatments promoted.
We assessed the best available evidence of non-drug and non-surgical treatments to alleviate low back pain. Our review – published today by the independent, international group the Cochrane Collaboration – includes 31 Cochrane systematic reviews, covering 97,000 people with back pain.
It shows bed rest doesn’t work for back pain. Some of the treatments that do work can depend on how long you’ve been in pain.
Is back pain likely to be serious?
There are different types of low back pain. It can:
be short-lived, lasting less than six weeks (acute back pain)
linger for a bit longer, for six to twelve weeks (sub-acute)
stick around for months and even years (chronic, defined as more than 12 weeks).
In most cases (90-95%), back pain is non-specific and cannot be reliably linked to a specific cause or underlying disease. This includes common structural changes seen in x-rays and MRIs of the spine.
For this reason, imaging of the back is only recommended in rare situations – typically when there’s a clear suspicion of serious back issues, such as after physical trauma or when there is numbness or loss of sensation in the groin or legs.
Many people expect to receive painkillers for their back pain or even surgery, but these are no longer the front-line treatment options due to limited benefits and the high risk of harm.
International clinical guidelines recommend people choose non-drug and non-surgical treatments to relieve their pain, improve function and reduce the distress commonly associated with back pain.
So what works for different types of pain? Here’s what our review found when researchers compared these treatments with standard care (the typical treatment patients usually receive) or no treatment.
What helps for short-term back pain
1. Stay active – don’t rest in bed
If your back pain is new, the best advice is also one of the simplest: keep moving despite the pain.
Changing the way you move and use your body to protect it, or resting in bed, can seem like to right way to respond to pain – and may have even been recommended in the past. But we know know this excessive protective behaviour can make it harder to return to meaningful activities.
This doesn’t mean pushing through pain or hitting the gym, but instead, trying to maintain your usual routines as much as possible. Evidence suggests that doing so won’t make your pain worse, and may improve it.
2. Multidisciplinary care, if pain lingers
For pain lasting six to 12 weeks, multidisciplinary treatment is likely to reduce pain compared to standard care.
This involves a coordinated team of doctors, physiotherapists and psychologists working together to address the many factors contributing to your back pain persisting:
neurophysiological influences refer to how your nervous system is currently processing pain. It can make you more sensitive to signals from movements, thoughts, feelings and environment
psychological factors include how your thoughts, feelings and behaviours affect your pain system and, ultimately, the experience of pain you have
occupational factors include the physical demands of your job and how well you can manage them, as well as aspects like low job satisfaction, all of which can contribute to ongoing pain.
It’s important to keep up your normal routines when you have low back pain. Raychan/Unsplash
What works for chronic back pain
Once pain has been around for more than 12 weeks, it can become more difficult to treat. But relief is still possible.
Exercise therapy
Exercise – especially programs tailored to your needs and preferences – is likely to reduce pain and help you move better. This could include aerobic activity, strength training or Pilates-based movements.
It doesn’t seem to matter what type of exercise you do – it matters more that you are consistent and have the right level of supervision, especially early on.
Multidisciplinary treatment
As with short-term pain, coordinated care involving a mix of physical, occupational and psychological approaches likely works better than usual care alone.
Psychological therapies
Psychological therapies for chronic pain include approaches to help people change thinking, feelings, behaviours and reactions that might sustain persistent pain.
These approaches are likely to reduce pain, though they may not be as effective in improving physical function.
Acupuncture
Acupuncture probably reduces pain and improves how well you can function compared to placebo or no treatment.
While some debate remains about how it works, the evidence suggests potential benefits for some people with chronic back pain.
The review found that many commonly advertised treatments still have uncertain benefits or probably do not benefit people with back pain.
Spinal manipulation, for example, has uncertain benefits in acute and chronic back pain, and it likely does not improve how well you function if you have acute back pain.
Traction, which involves stretching the spine using weights or pulleys, probably doesn’t help with chronic back pain. Despite its popularity in some circles, there’s little evidence that it works.
There isn’t enough reliable data to determine whether advertised treatments – such back braces, vibrating massage guns and herbal patches – are effective.
How can you use the findings?
If you have back pain, start by considering how long you’ve had it. Then explore treatment options that research supports and discuss them with your GP, psychologist or physiotherapist.
Your health provider should reassure you about the importance of gradually increasing your activity to resume meaningful work, social and life activities. They should also support you in making informed decisions about which treatments are most appropriate for you at this stage.
Rodrigo Rossi Nogueira Rizzo receives funding from the Australian Government’s Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF).
Aidan Cashin receives funding from a National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grant
In January, the Trump administration ordered a broad pause on all US funding for foreign aid.
Among other issues, this has significant effects on US funding for HIV. The United States has been the world’s biggest donor to international HIV assistance, providing 73% of funding in 2023.
What’s more, recent funding cuts for international HIV assistance go beyond the US. Five countries that provide the largest amount of foreign aid for HIV – the US, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the Netherlands – have announced cuts of between 8% and 70% to international aid in 2025 and 2026.
Together, this may mean a 24% reduction in international HIV spending, in addition to the US foreign aid pause.
We wanted to know how these cuts might affect HIV infections and deaths in the years to come. In a new study, we found the worst-case scenario could see more than 10 million extra infections than what we’d otherwise anticipate in the next five years, and almost 3 million additional deaths.
What is HIV?
HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) is a virus that attacks the body’s immune system. HIV can be transmitted at birth, during unprotected sex or thorough blood-to-blood contact such as shared needles.
If left untreated, HIV can progress to AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome), a condition in which the immune system is severely damaged, and which can be fatal.
HIV was the world’s deadliest infectious disease in the early 1990s. There’s still no cure for HIV, but modern treatments allow the virus to be suppressed with a daily pill. People with HIV who continue treatment can live without symptoms and don’t risk infecting others.
A sustained global effort towards awareness, prevention, testing and treatment has reduced annual new HIV infections by 39% (from 2.1 million in 2010 to 1.3 million in 2023), and annual deaths by 51% (from 1.3 million to 630,000).
Most of that drop happened in sub-Saharan Africa, where the epidemic was worst. Today, nearly two-thirds of people with HIV live in sub-Saharan Africa, and nearly all live in low- and middle-income countries.
We wanted to estimate the impact of recent funding cuts from the US, UK, France, Germany and the Netherlands on HIV infections and deaths. To do this, we used our mathematical model for 26 low- and middle-income countries. The model includes data on international HIV spending as well as data on HIV cases and deaths.
These 26 countries represent roughly half of all people living with HIV in low- and middle income countries, and half of international HIV spending. We set up each country model in collaboration with national HIV/AIDS teams, so the data sources reflected the best available local knowledge. We then extrapolated our findings from the 26 countries we modelled to all low- and middle-income countries.
For each country, we first projected the number of new HIV infections and deaths that would occur if HIV spending stayed the same.
Second, we modelled scenarios for anticipated cuts based on a 24% reduction in international HIV funding for each country.
Finally, we modelled scenarios for the possible immediate discontinuation of PEPFAR in addition to other anticipated cuts.
With the 24% cuts and PEPFAR discontinued, we estimated there could be 4.43 million to 10.75 million additional HIV infections between 2025 and 2030, and 770,000 to 2.93 million extra HIV-related deaths. Most of these would be because of cuts to treatment. For children, there could be up to an additional 882,400 infections and 119,000 deaths.
In the more optimistic scenario in which PEPFAR continues but 24% is still cut from international HIV funding, we estimated there could be 70,000 to 1.73 million extra new HIV infections and 5,000 to 61,000 additional deaths between 2025 and 2030. This would still be 50% higher than if current spending were to continue.
The wide range in our estimates reflects low- and middle-income countries committing to far more domestic funding for HIV in the best case, or broader health system dysfunction and a sustained gap in funding for HIV treatment in the worst case.
Some funding for HIV treatment may be saved by taking that money from HIV prevention efforts, but this would have other consequences.
The range also reflects limitations in the available data, and uncertainty within our analysis. But most of our assumptions were cautious, so these results likely underestimate the true impacts of funding cuts to HIV programs globally.
Sending progress backwards
If funding cuts continue, the world could face higher rates of annual new HIV infections by 2030 (up to 3.4 million) than at the peak of the global epidemic in 1995 (3.3 million).
Sub-Saharan Africa will experience by far the greatest effects due to the high proportion of HIV treatment that has relied on international funding.
In other regions, we estimate vulnerable groups such as people who inject drugs, sex workers, men who have sex with men, and trans and gender diverse people may experience increases in new HIV infections that are 1.3 to 6 times greater than the general population.
The Asia-Pacific received US$591 million in international funding for HIV in 2023, which is the second highest after sub-Saharan Africa. So this region would likely experience a substantial rise in HIV as a result of anticipated funding cuts.
Notably, more than 10% of new HIV infections among people born in Australia are estimated to have been acquired overseas. More HIV in the region is likely to mean more HIV in Australia.
But concern is greatest for countries that are most acutely affected by HIV and AIDS, many of which will be most affected by international funding cuts.
Rowan Martin-Hughes receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. He has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.
Debra ten Brink has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.
Nick Scott receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia. He has previously received funding to conduct HIV modelling studies from the Australian government Department of Health and Aged Care, Gates Foundation, Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, UNAIDS, UNFPA, UNICEF, World Bank and World Health Organization.
Jason, a 42-year-old father of two, has been battling back pain for weeks. Scrolling through his phone, he sees ad after ad promising relief: chiropractic alignments, acupuncture, back braces, vibrating massage guns and herbal patches.
His GP told him to “stay active”, but what does that even mean when every movement hurts? Jason wants to avoid strong painkillers and surgery, but with so many options (and opinions), it’s hard to know what works and what’s just marketing hype.
If Jason’s experience sounds familiar, you’re not alone. Back pain is one of the most common reasons people visit a doctor. It can be challenging to manage, mainly due to widespread misunderstandings and the overwhelming number of ineffective and uncertain treatments promoted.
We assessed the best available evidence of non-drug and non-surgical treatments to alleviate low back pain. Our review – published today by the independent, international group the Cochrane Collaboration – includes 31 Cochrane systematic reviews, covering 97,000 people with back pain.
It shows bed rest doesn’t work for back pain. Some of the treatments that do work can depend on how long you’ve been in pain.
Is back pain likely to be serious?
There are different types of low back pain. It can:
be short-lived, lasting less than six weeks (acute back pain)
linger for a bit longer, for six to twelve weeks (sub-acute)
stick around for months and even years (chronic, defined as more than 12 weeks).
In most cases (90-95%), back pain is non-specific and cannot be reliably linked to a specific cause or underlying disease. This includes common structural changes seen in x-rays and MRIs of the spine.
For this reason, imaging of the back is only recommended in rare situations – typically when there’s a clear suspicion of serious back issues, such as after physical trauma or when there is numbness or loss of sensation in the groin or legs.
Many people expect to receive painkillers for their back pain or even surgery, but these are no longer the front-line treatment options due to limited benefits and the high risk of harm.
International clinical guidelines recommend people choose non-drug and non-surgical treatments to relieve their pain, improve function and reduce the distress commonly associated with back pain.
So what works for different types of pain? Here’s what our review found when researchers compared these treatments with standard care (the typical treatment patients usually receive) or no treatment.
What helps for short-term back pain
1. Stay active – don’t rest in bed
If your back pain is new, the best advice is also one of the simplest: keep moving despite the pain.
Changing the way you move and use your body to protect it, or resting in bed, can seem like to right way to respond to pain – and may have even been recommended in the past. But we know know this excessive protective behaviour can make it harder to return to meaningful activities.
This doesn’t mean pushing through pain or hitting the gym, but instead, trying to maintain your usual routines as much as possible. Evidence suggests that doing so won’t make your pain worse, and may improve it.
2. Multidisciplinary care, if pain lingers
For pain lasting six to 12 weeks, multidisciplinary treatment is likely to reduce pain compared to standard care.
This involves a coordinated team of doctors, physiotherapists and psychologists working together to address the many factors contributing to your back pain persisting:
neurophysiological influences refer to how your nervous system is currently processing pain. It can make you more sensitive to signals from movements, thoughts, feelings and environment
psychological factors include how your thoughts, feelings and behaviours affect your pain system and, ultimately, the experience of pain you have
occupational factors include the physical demands of your job and how well you can manage them, as well as aspects like low job satisfaction, all of which can contribute to ongoing pain.
It’s important to keep up your normal routines when you have low back pain. Raychan/Unsplash
What works for chronic back pain
Once pain has been around for more than 12 weeks, it can become more difficult to treat. But relief is still possible.
Exercise therapy
Exercise – especially programs tailored to your needs and preferences – is likely to reduce pain and help you move better. This could include aerobic activity, strength training or Pilates-based movements.
It doesn’t seem to matter what type of exercise you do – it matters more that you are consistent and have the right level of supervision, especially early on.
Multidisciplinary treatment
As with short-term pain, coordinated care involving a mix of physical, occupational and psychological approaches likely works better than usual care alone.
Psychological therapies
Psychological therapies for chronic pain include approaches to help people change thinking, feelings, behaviours and reactions that might sustain persistent pain.
These approaches are likely to reduce pain, though they may not be as effective in improving physical function.
Acupuncture
Acupuncture probably reduces pain and improves how well you can function compared to placebo or no treatment.
While some debate remains about how it works, the evidence suggests potential benefits for some people with chronic back pain.
The review found that many commonly advertised treatments still have uncertain benefits or probably do not benefit people with back pain.
Spinal manipulation, for example, has uncertain benefits in acute and chronic back pain, and it likely does not improve how well you function if you have acute back pain.
Traction, which involves stretching the spine using weights or pulleys, probably doesn’t help with chronic back pain. Despite its popularity in some circles, there’s little evidence that it works.
There isn’t enough reliable data to determine whether advertised treatments – such back braces, vibrating massage guns and herbal patches – are effective.
How can you use the findings?
If you have back pain, start by considering how long you’ve had it. Then explore treatment options that research supports and discuss them with your GP, psychologist or physiotherapist.
Your health provider should reassure you about the importance of gradually increasing your activity to resume meaningful work, social and life activities. They should also support you in making informed decisions about which treatments are most appropriate for you at this stage.
Rodrigo Rossi Nogueira Rizzo receives funding from the Australian Government’s Medical Research Future Fund (MRFF).
Aidan Cashin receives funding from a National Health and Medical Research Council Investigator Grant
