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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why people rebuild in Appalachia’s flood-ravaged areas despite the risks

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Kristina P. Brant, Assistant Professor of Rural Sociology, Penn State

    Parts of the North Fork of the Kentucky River flooded in July 2022, and again in February 2025. Arden S. Barnes/For The Washington Post via Getty Images

    On Valentine’s Day 2025, heavy rains started to fall in parts of rural Appalachia. Over the course of a few days, residents in eastern Kentucky watched as river levels rose and surpassed flood levels. Emergency teams conducted over 1,000 water rescues. Hundreds, if not thousands of people were displaced from homes, and entire business districts filled with mud.

    For some, it was the third time in just four years that their homes had flooded, and the process of disposing of destroyed furniture, cleaning out the muck and starting anew is beginning again.

    Historic floods wiped out businesses and homes in eastern Kentucky in February 2021, July 2022 and now February 2025. An even greater scale of destruction hit eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina in September 2024, when Hurricane Helene’s rainfall and flooding decimated towns and washed out parts of major highways.

    Scenes of flooding from several locations across Appalachia in February 2025.

    Each of these events was considered to be a “thousand-year flood,” with a 1-in-1,000 chance of happening in a given year. Yet they’re happening more often.

    The floods have highlighted the resilience of local people to work together for collective survival in rural Appalachia. But they have also exposed the deep vulnerability of communities, many of which are located along creeks at the base of hills and mountains with poor emergency warning systems. As short-term cleanup leads to long-term recovery efforts, residents can face daunting barriers that leave many facing the same flood risks over and over again.

    Exposing a housing crisis

    For the past nine years, I have been conducting research on rural health and poverty in Appalachia. It’s a complex region often painted in broad brushstrokes that miss the geographic, socioeconomic and ideological diversity it holds.

    Appalachia is home to a vibrant culture, a fierce sense of pride and a strong sense of love. But it is also marked by the omnipresent backdrop of a declining coal industry.

    There is considerable local inequality that is often overlooked in a region portrayed as one-dimensional. Poverty levels are indeed high. In Perry County, Kentucky, where one of eastern Kentucky’s larger cities, Hazard, is located, nearly 30% of the population lives under the federal poverty line. But the average income of the top 1% of workers in Perry County is nearly US$470,000 – 17 times more than the average income of the remaining 99%.

    This income and wealth inequality translates to unequal land ownership – much of eastern Kentucky’s most desirable land remains in the hands of corporations and families with great generational wealth.

    When I first moved to eastern Kentucky in 2016, I was struck by the grave lack of affordable, quality housing. I met families paying $200-$300 a month for a small plot to put a mobile home. Others lived in “found housing” – often-distressed properties owned by family members. They had no lease, no equity and no insurance. They had a place to lay one’s head but lacked long-term stability in the event of disagreement or disaster. This reality was rarely acknowledged by local and state governments.

    Eastern Kentucky’s 2021 and 2022 floods turned this into a full-blown housing crisis, with 9,000 homes damaged or destroyed in the 2022 flood alone.

    “There was no empty housing or empty places for housing,” one resident involved in local flood recovery efforts told me. “It just was complete disaster because people just didn’t have a place to go.”

    Most homeowners did not have flood insurance to assist with rebuilding costs. While many applied to the Federal Emergency Management Agency for assistance, the amounts they received often did not go far. The maximum aid for temporary housing assistance and repairs is $42,500, plus up to an additional $42,500 for other needs related to the disaster.

    The federal government often provides more aid for rebuilding through block grants directed to local and state governments, but that money requires congressional approval and can take months to years to arrive. Local community coalitions and organizations stepped in to fill these gaps, but they did not necessarily have sufficient donations or resources to help such large numbers of displaced people.

    Affordable rental housing is hard to find in much of Appalachia. When flooding wipes out homes, as Jackson, Ky., saw in July 2022 and again in February 2025, it becomes even more rare.
    Michael Swensen/Getty Images

    With a dearth of affordable rentals pre-flood, renters who lost their homes had no place to go. And those living in “found housing” that was destroyed were not eligible for federal support for rebuilding.

    The sheer level of devastation also posed challenges. One health care professional told me: “In Appalachia, the way it usually works is if you lose your house or something happens, then you go stay with your brother or your mom or your cousin. … But everybody’s mom and brother and cousin also lost their house. There was nowhere to stay.” From her point of view, “our homelessness just skyrocketed.”

    The cost of land – social and economic

    After the 2022 flood, the Kentucky Department for Local Government earmarked almost $300 million of federal funding to build new, flood-resilient homes in eastern Kentucky. Yet the question of where to build remained. As another resident involved in local flood recovery efforts told me, “You can give us all the money you want; we don’t have any place to build the house.”

    It has always been costly and time-intensive to develop land in Appalachia. Available higher ground tends to be located on former strip mines, and these reclaimed lands require careful geotechnical surveying and sometimes structural reinforcements.

    If these areas are remote, the costs of running electric, water and other infrastructure services can also be prohibitive. For this reason, for-profit developers have largely avoided many counties in the region. The head of a nonprofit agency explained to me that, because of this, “The markets have broken. … We have no [housing] market.”

    Eastern Kentucky’s mountains are beautiful, but there are few locations for building homes that aren’t near creeks or rivers. Strip-mined land, where mountaintops were flattened, often aren’t easily accessible and come with their own challenges.
    Posnov/Moment via Getty Images

    There is also some risk involved in attempting to build homes on new land that has not previously been developed. A local government could pay for undeveloped land to be surveyed and prepared for development, with the prospect of reimbursement by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development if housing is successfully built. But if, after the work to prepare the land, it is still too cost-prohibitive to build a profitable house there, the local government would not receive any reimbursement.

    Some counties have found success clearing land for large developments on former strip mine sites. But these former coal mining areas can be considerable distances from towns. Without robust public transportation systems, these distances are especially prohibitive for residents who lack reliable personal transportation.

    Another barrier is the high prices that both individual and corporate landowners are asking for properties on higher ground.

    The scarcity of desirable land available for sale, combined with increasingly urgent demand, has led to prices unaffordable for most. Another resident involved in local flood recovery efforts explained: “If you paid $5,000 for 30 acres 40 years ago, why won’t you sell that for $100,000? Nope, [they want] $1 million.” That makes it increasingly difficult for both individuals and housing developers to purchase land and build.

    One reason for this scarcity is the amount of land that is still owned by outside corporate interests. For example, Kentucky River Properties, formerly Kentucky River Coal Corporation, owns over 270,000 acres across seven counties in the region. While this landholding company leases land to coal, timber and gas companies, it and others like it rarely permit residential development.

    But not all unused land is owned by corporations. Some of this land is owned by families with deep roots in the region. People’s attachment to a place often makes them want to stay in their communities, even after disasters. But it can also limit the amount of land available for rebuilding. People are often hesitant to sell land that holds deep significance for their families, even if they are not living there themselves.

    Rural communities are often tight-knit. Many residents want to stay despite the risks.
    AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley

    One health care professional expressed feeling torn between selling or keeping their own family property after the 2022 flood: “We have a significant amount of property on top of a mountain. I wouldn’t want to sell it because my papa came from nothing. … His generation thought owning land was the greatest thing. … And for him to provide his children and his grandchildren and their great-grandchildren a plot of land that he worked and sweat and ultimately died to give us – people want to hold onto that.”

    She recognized that land was in great demand but couldn’t bring herself to sell what she owned. In cases like hers, higher grounds are owned locally but still remain unused.

    Moving toward higher ground, slowly

    Two years after the 2022 flood, major government funding for rebuilding still has not resulted in a significant number of homes. The state has planned seven communities on higher ground in eastern Kentucky that aim to house 665 new homes. As of early 2025, 14 houses had been completed.

    Progress on providing housing on higher ground is slow, and the need is great.

    In the meantime, when I conducted interviews during the summer and fall of 2024, many of the mobile home communities that were decimated in the 2022 flood had begun to fill back up. These were flood-risk areas, but there was simply no other place to go.

    Last week, I watched on Facebook a friend’s live video footage showing the waters creeping up the sides of the mobile homes in one of those very communities that had flooded in 2022. Another of my friends mused: “I don’t know who constructed all this, but they did an unjustly favor by not thinking how close these towns was to the river. Can’t anyone in Frankfort help us, or has it gone too far?”

    With hundreds more people now displaced by the most recent flood, the need for homes on higher grounds has only expanded, and the wait continues.

    Kristina Brant has received funding from the National Science Foundation and United States Department of Agriculture to support her past and ongoing research in rural Appalachia.

    – ref. Why people rebuild in Appalachia’s flood-ravaged areas despite the risks – https://theconversation.com/why-people-rebuild-in-appalachias-flood-ravaged-areas-despite-the-risks-240429

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Parrotfish support healthy coral reefs, but they’re not a cure-all, and sometimes cause harm

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip, Professor of Marine Ecology, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM)

    Rainbow and midnight parrotfish feed at Alacranes Reef in the Gulf of Mexico. Lorenzo Alvarez-Filip, CC BY-ND

    After two years of record-breaking ocean heat, scientists are assessing the impacts of the world’s fourth mass bleaching event on coral reefs around the globe. At least 74 countries and territories are confirmed to have experienced coral bleaching since the spring of 2023.

    As coastal development, pollution and climate change put increasing stress on the world’s oceans, tropical reefs are losing reef-building corals at unprecedented rates. These corals – species with rigid skeletons, such as elkhorn and brain corals – are the architects of these ecosystems, providing the foundations for coral reef communities.

    Coral reefs perform many important functions, such as buffering coastlines and providing habitat for one-fourth of all marine species. In the U.S. alone, these ecological services are worth an estimated US$3.4 billion yearly.

    Over the past several decades, many studies have spotlighted the role of “grazers” – fish who feed on algae – in keeping coral reefs clean and healthy. Protecting parrotfish, a family of some 90 species of large, colorful grazers, has become a tenet of reef conservation policies.

    We have analyzed indicators of reef health and resilience and assessed the roles parrotfish play in controlling seaweed, promoting coral growth and eroding reefs. While it is clear that parrotfish are an important part of coral reef communities, management strategies focusing on them, in our view, have not fully proved effective. In a review of recent science, we showed why conservation programs need to rethink the role parrotfish can play as a conservation tool to improve reef health.

    The coral bleaching event that started in 2024 is the largest such episode on record.

    The parrotfish paradigm

    Corals and the reef bottom they live on need to stay clean to prevent seaweed from growing on their surfaces. Excessive seaweed growth on reefs can block sunlight from corals’ surfaces, release chemicals that affect coral survival, slow the corals’ growth and make it harder for new corals to establish themselves and build reef structures.

    When disease or bleaching kills corals on a reef, other fast-growing organisms, including seaweed, rapidly colonize the dead corals’ skeletons. This impedes new corals from settling and surviving on the reef, and locks the ecosystem into a state of low growth and poor recovery.

    In this context, it is easy to see why protecting algae-eating fish has become a cornerstone of coral reef conservation. This paradigm assumes that restoring populations of “grazing” species by protecting them from fishing is essential for controlling seaweeds, improving reef health and promoting coral recovery.

    This strategy has spurred governments in many countries, including Belize, Bermuda, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico, Colombia and the U.S., to create marine protected areas, restrict fishing in designated zones and ban parrotfish harvesting.

    Fishermen in Indonesia with a green humphead parrotfish.
    Thierry Tronnel/Corbis via Getty Images

    Missing pieces of parrotfish protection

    Evidence shows that conservation measures have increased parrotfish populations in some places, such as Bonaire and Belize, with positive effects on reefs. However, parrotfish increases have not always reduced algae growth or increased coral cover. In our review, we highlight three main factors that may be hindering the success of this approach in the Caribbean.

    First, parrotfish management has traditionally treated all species as if they consume the same amount of algae. This notion leads to using measures like the total number or total weight of parrotfish present in a given reef as proxies for seaweed consumption.

    However, not all parrotfish are the same. Some species, such as the redband parrotfish, effectively remove algae, while others, such as the blue parrotfish, barely eat it. More precise and targeted conservation measures would consider each species’ specific impact on seaweed growth.

    Second, while parrotfish help reefs to grow by keeping them clean, they also can cause gradual erosion of reef structures. Some parrotfish species graze by biting off chunks of coral, especially from dead skeletons, and grinding it in their digestive systems, excreting it as sand.

    Humphead parrotfish are among the species that consume coral, grinding it in their powerful jaws and excreting fine sand that creates tropical beaches.

    This bioerosion process is natural and essential. But on highly degraded reefs with low coral cover, large numbers of eroding parrotfish can accelerate reef breakdown.

    Increases or declines in populations of parrotfish influence the intensity of erosion. But focusing so closely on parrotfish has unintentionally overlooked the erosive capacity of these fishes by assuming all parrotfish have the same effect on the ecosystem. This raises an important question: Which species are favored by restrictions on harvesting parrotfish?

    Our research shows that key bioeroding species that break down dead coral, such as the queen parrotfish and the stoplight parrotfish, are more vulnerable to overfishing because they are larger and take longer to mature. This means that reducing or restricting their catch might unintentionally increase bioerosion. For these ecosystems, increasing parrotfish numbers might not reduce algae growth enough to fully offset higher rates of bioerosion.

    A stoplight parrotfish breaks down dead coral while feeding.

    Conservation strategies that evolve

    As science progresses and new evidence emerges, it is crucial to reexamine conservation strategies and see whether they need to be updated or even scrapped. This ongoing process of refining plans based on evolving knowledge is known as adaptive management and is widely used in ecology and conservation.

    We are not calling for an end to protecting parrotfish. However, no single strategy can be a comprehensive tool for conserving coral reefs, which are very complex ecosystems.

    Rather, we want to encourage people – especially reef managers and scientists – to recognize the different roles that various parrotfish species play and the varying challenges each species faces, and tailor reef protection efforts accordingly. We also believe it is critical to do more to counter the causes of coral mortality, including climate change, coastal development and water pollution. Along with grazers to keep them clean, coral reefs need cleaner waters and cooler oceans to ensure their long-term survival.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Parrotfish support healthy coral reefs, but they’re not a cure-all, and sometimes cause harm – https://theconversation.com/parrotfish-support-healthy-coral-reefs-but-theyre-not-a-cure-all-and-sometimes-cause-harm-242270

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: States that impose severe prison sentences accomplish the opposite of what they say they want

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John Leverso, Assistant Professor of Criminal Justice, University of Cincinnati

    Prison doors close, but for most people convicted of crimes, they eventually open again. Hans Neleman/Stone via Getty Images

    Across the U.S., tough-on-crime policies are surging again, despite research showing they do little to reduce crime, particularly violent offenses.

    Before the early 1990s, people who were sentenced to 10 years in prison might be released after serving roughly half that long. That’s because of policies that allowed incarcerated individuals to earn credit for good behavior or, in some states, to avoid losing credits they already held toward an early release. These so-called “good time” policies were created by states to encourage good behavior and rehabilitation and to reduce prison overcrowding.

    But in the 1990s, when national politics was focused on crime rates, Congress encouraged states to adopt so-called “truth-in-sentencing” laws, which required people to serve at least 85% of their prison sentence.

    As research highlighted the inefficacy and unintended consequences of these laws, states rolled them back or modified them, mostly by partially repealing them or reducing the severity of mandatory sentences.

    Some efforts to roll back harsh sentencing rules continue: In Illinois, traditionally a leader in criminal justice reform, one bill that would soften truth-in-sentencing requirements has stalled, though another was introduced in January 2025.

    But in many other states, truth-in-sentencing laws and other similar laws that impose longer sentences are making a comeback, particularly for violent crimes.

    Since 2023, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota and Tennessee have passed truth-in-sentencing laws. North Dakota is now considering similar legislation. In November 2024, Colorado voters required people convicted of violent crimes to serve higher percentages of their sentences, which is a similar move, though it didn’t bear the “truth-in-sentencing” label.

    A personal lens on the topic

    These laws have real effects on real people.

    In 1998, I was sentenced to 22 years in the Illinois Department of Corrections for a gang-related violent crime I committed as a juvenile. I served just 11 of those years under a long-standing policy that allowed individuals to serve half their sentence with good behavior.

    But if I had been arrested just 100 days later, a truth-in-sentencing law would have taken effect, and I would have had to serve the full 22 years.

    Eleven years is a long time. Since my release in 2012, I’ve earned a bachelor’s degree, a master’s degree and a Ph.D. I’m now a college professor, author, husband and father.

    If I had been required to serve my full sentence, I would have been released in 2023, older and with fewer opportunities for education, rehabilitation and rebuilding my life.

    Instead of being able to start my education at the age of 30, I would have entered the world in my forties, making it much harder to pursue a decade of schooling to become a professor. The delay would have also made it harder to start a family, forcing me to balance career-building with the difficulties of having children later in life.

    Incarcerated graduates, who finished various educational and vocational programs in prison, wait for the start of their graduation ceremony in May 2023.
    AP Photo/Jae C. Hong

    Not deterring crime

    Supporters of truth-in-sentencing laws say they are intended to increase accountability for wrongdoing and deter crime. The logic can seem reasonably intuitive: If people know they will receive a harsher punishment, they will be less likely to commit particular crimes.

    But research finds that those are not the results. There is no compelling evidence that punitive sentencing policies discourage individuals from engaging in criminal activity.

    And states without truth-in-sentencing laws have seen their crime rates fall to roughly the same degree as states that have the laws.

    Harming society at large

    Research also finds that truth-in-sentencing laws cause far-reaching harms to people convicted of crimes and to society at large, undermining both rehabilitation and public safety.

    Because truth-in-sentencing laws focus on deterrence, they do not address the causes of criminal behavior, such as poverty and childhood trauma.

    These laws also make prisons less safe: They remove incentives for people in prison to follow the rules, get an education, participate in psychotherapy or otherwise engage in positive activities while behind bars.

    The vast majority of incarcerated people – six out of every seven inmates – are released into society again. Under truth-in-sentencing laws, they emerge from prison less prepared to follow the laws than they would have been if they had access to educational programs, therapy and an incentive structure that encouraged rehabilitation while incarcerated.

    A study in Georgia, for instance, found that after stricter sentencing requirements were enacted, inmates subject to the new rules committed more disciplinary infractions and participated in fewer rehabilitation programs in prison. And once released, they were more likely to commit new crimes than released inmates who had not been subject to the stricter sentences.

    Costing taxpayers dearly

    Additionally, the financial burden of these laws is significant.

    For example, Arkansas’ truth-in-sentencing law, passed in 2023, is projected to cost the state’s taxpayers at least US$160 million over the next decade to pay for increased prison capacity and staffing.

    Instead of deterring crime, truth-in-sentencing laws lock more people up for longer periods of time without addressing the underlying factors, which strains already overburdened correctional systems.

    These laws also disproportionately affect people of color, exacerbating systemic inequities in the criminal justice system.

    These people incarcerated in a California prison are learning computer programming.
    AP Photo/Eric Risberg

    A different path

    For me, the possibility of earning good-time credit was a powerful motivator to engage in rehabilitative activities and regain lost time after disciplinary infractions.

    When I began my sentence, Illinois law allowed people to receive a 50% reduction in their sentence through good-time credit: I might need to serve only half of my original 22-year sentence, and be released after 11 years, if I maintained good behavior.

    Breaking the rules would cost credit, extending my time in prison beyond that 50% mark. Early in my sentence, I broke the rules and was placed in isolation – also called segregation or restrictive housing, in a cell for 24 hours a day, except for six hours of exercise a week – for a total of 18 months, resulting in a significant loss of my good-time credit. As a result, instead of serving 11 years, my expected time in prison increased to approximately 12.5 years.

    This setback was a turning point. I knew that my actions had directly affected the length of time I would have to spend in prison. I became determined to earn back my lost time. I focused on staying out of trouble, earning my GED, completing my associate degree and enrolling in available programs. I was able to regain my time credit and had to serve only 11 years.

    Under today’s truth-in-sentencing laws, none of this would have been possible. I would have been required to serve my full sentence, regardless of whether I chose to change, rehabilitate or prepare for life after prison. The ability to reduce my sentence through good behavior and educational achievement gave me a tangible incentive to turn my life around, an opportunity that truth-in-sentencing laws eliminate.

    A way forward

    By contrast, investing in rehabilitation not only improves outcomes for those incarcerated but also makes communities safer by reducing the cycle of crime.

    Research shows that in-prison rehabilitation programs – particularly those centered on education and vocational training programs and social-support services such as housing help, mental health care and job placement assistance – reduce recidivism rates. While in prison, people are held accountable while also having opportunities to grow and learn, preparing for successful reintegration into society after their release.

    I believe that in the overwhelming majority of people in prison, there is potential for redemption – but that potential is most likely to emerge when they have opportunities to learn and grow and receive benefits for making changes in their lives.

    Unfortunately, many states are choosing to spend millions locking up more people for longer periods – while giving them less opportunity to improve themselves and their lives, reducing their potential for change and safe, productive reintegration into society upon release.

    John Leverso does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. States that impose severe prison sentences accomplish the opposite of what they say they want – https://theconversation.com/states-that-impose-severe-prison-sentences-accomplish-the-opposite-of-what-they-say-they-want-247550

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How ticket-splitting voters could shape the 2026 midterms

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ian Anson, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Maryland, Baltimore County

    Even in polarized times, some American voters still cross party lines to support both Democratic and Republican candidates. wildpixel/iStock via Getty Images

    With the 2024 U.S. election over and done with, political analysts and both major parties are already turning their attention to the upcoming midterm elections in 2026.

    All 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 33 Senate seats will be up for grabs. The Democrats are as desperate to retake control of Congress as Republicans are to keep it. A Democratic-controlled Congress in 2026 would do everything in its power to halt President Donald Trump’s legislative agenda in its tracks.

    To edge out their opponent, candidates in highly competitive districts will have to win over some voters who rejected their own party’s presidential candidate in 2024. Democratic candidates will need to get support from at least some Trump voters; Republicans will need some support from Kamala Harris voters.

    Despite the intensely polarized U.S. political environment, a significant number of Americans routinely cross party lines to support both Democratic and Republican candidates at the polls. When it happens on the same ballot, this is called ticket-splitting.

    Just who are these voters, and when do they choose to split their tickets?

    I am a political scientist who studies American voting behavior. I see these questions as key to understanding how long Trump’s total control of government will last.

    Split tickets in North Carolina and Arizona

    Ticket-splitting created some surprising election returns in 2024, mostly benefiting down-ballot Democrats.

    For instance, Republican Donald Trump won North Carolina by around 3 percentage points, but voters elected a Democrat, Josh Stein, for governor by a margin of almost 15 percentage points. Several hundred thousand North Carolinians split their tickets to produce this outcome.

    More than 100,000 Arizonans likewise split their tickets in 2024, electing Trump with 52% of the vote, yet rejecting the Trump-aligned Senate candidate Kari Lake in favor of Democrat Ruben Gallego.

    Many experts believe that candidates such as Gallego and Stein were simply perceived as less extreme than their opponents, and so they lured moderate voters and even some Republicans.

    In this theory, extreme MAGA-aligned candidates win primary elections because they attract the most partisan voters. But they turn off many people in the general electorate.

    Marylanders split their tickets

    One of the most extreme examples of ticket-splitting in 2024 was in the race to replace U.S. Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland.

    Partyliners or ticket-splitters? Maryland voters cast their ballots in Baltimore on Nov. 5, 2024.
    J. Countess/Getty Images

    Cardin was a retiring three-term Democrat who had last won reelection in 2018 by an astronomical margin of over 34 percentage points. Initially, many expert analysts saw the seat as safe for Democrats.

    Then, in February 2024, former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who had previously ruled out a Senate run, surprised political analysts by entering the Republican primary. After winning the primary handily, Hogan eventually squared off against Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks, a Democrat, in the general election.

    Suddenly, a matchup that should have been Alsobrook’s to lose got competitive.

    Hogan, who left office in 2023, was a successful Republican governor who won election twice in reliably blue Maryland. Perceived by many voters as an ideological moderate, he was also a vocal Trump opponent in a state that supported Biden over Trump in 2020 by around 33 percentage points. During his governorship, Hogan routinely outperformed MAGA-aligned Republicans who ran for Congress in Maryland.

    Ultimately, Hogan did lose to Alsobrooks. She became Maryland’s first female U.S. senator and first Black U.S. senator. Yet Hogan came an incredible 17 percentage points closer to winning than Trump did. Kamala Harris beat Trump by 1.9 million votes, winning 63% of the electorate to Trump’s 34%.

    This means that Hogan exceeded Trump’s vote total by over 300,000 votes. That’s an immense amount of ticket-splitting by Marylanders in 2024.

    Who are the Hogan Democrats?

    To better understand ticket-splitting in Maryland’s 2024 election, I analyzed a survey that my university conducted in Baltimore County. Baltimore County is a bellwether county that has backed the winning gubernatorial candidate in every election since 2006.

    The UMBC Battleground Exit Poll surveyed 1,119 voters at election precincts across Baltimore County during early voting and on Election Day 2024. The results were weighted to ensure demographic representativeness.

    This extensive survey shows that around 10% of all voters in Baltimore County supported the surprising combination of the Democrat Harris and the Republican Hogan.

    In contrast, fewer than 2% of Trump voters split their tickets to back the Democratic Senate candidate Alsobrooks.

    My team’s data analysis shows that roughly half of Harris-Hogan voters – 51% – were Democrats. These ticket-splitters included a higher percentage of white voters than the Democrats who supported both Harris and Alsobrooks. Around 37% of Harris-Hogan voters identified as Black, Asian, Hispanic, Middle Eastern or another nonwhite racial category, compared with 55% of Harris-Alsobrooks voters.

    We found virtually no gender differences between Democrats who split their tickets to back a woman for president and a man for Senate and those who backed two women candidates.

    Harris-Hogan Democrats tended to be better educated than other voting groups. Around 68% reported having a college degree, compared with around 51% of all survey respondents.

    Perhaps the most striking feature of Harris-Hogan voters is their self-declared moderation.

    On a seven-point ideological scale ranging from “very liberal” to “very conservative,” around 61% of Harris-Hogan ticket-splitters put themselves at the exact midpoint of the scale. Only around 42% of the full sample of Maryland voters categorized themselves as centrist.

    Can moderates survive in Trump’s shadow?

    As our study shows, Hogan’s popularity in Maryland is due in part to his appeal among moderates. This finding helps to explain how this Republican has remained popular among Democrats and independent voters.

    However, Hogan still lost. Unlike in Arizona, where the Democratic Senate candidate Ruben Gallego won by wooing moderate Republicans, the tenuous balance of power in the U.S. House and Senate may have prevented some Democratic and independent voters in Maryland from crossing the aisle to support a moderate Republican.

    Of course, Hogan also faced a formidable opponent. Alsobrooks had already emerged victorious in a tight primary against a well-funded and popular incumbent U.S. House representative, David Trone. I suspect a less-skilled Democratic candidate would have created even more Harris-Hogan voters.

    Ultimately, my analysis of ticket-splitting in 2024 reveals that even in an era of entrenched polarization, many voters approach congressional and presidential races with different mindsets.

    This dynamic will likely influence the next election cycle, too.

    The party of the president often takes heavy losses in midterm elections. In 2026, congressional candidates – and Democrats in particular – will be doing everything they can to woo moderates.

    This will be especially true if Trump’s aggressive policies, such as widespread government layoffs and mass deportations, prove unpopular.

    Let the campaigning begin.

    Ian Anson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How ticket-splitting voters could shape the 2026 midterms – https://theconversation.com/how-ticket-splitting-voters-could-shape-the-2026-midterms-246017

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cutting Medicaid and federal programs are among 4 key Trump administration policy changes that could make life harder for disabled people

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Matthew Borus, Assistant Professor, Department of Social Work, Binghamton University, State University of New York

    Disabled people’s employment rights and access to free health care are among the policy issues that the Trump administration is aiming to change. Catherine McQueen/Moment/Getty Images

    While policy debates on immigration, abortion and other issues took center stage in the 2024 presidential election, the first months of the Trump administration have also signaled major changes in federal disability policy.

    An estimated 20% to 25% of Americans have a disability of some kind, including physical, sensory, psychological and intellectual disabilities.

    Disability experts, myself included, fear that the Trump administration is creating new barriers for disabled people to being hired at a job, getting a quality education and providing for basic needs, including health insurance.

    Here are four key areas of disability policy to watch over the coming years.

    People hold signs at a protest in June 2024 demanding subway elevator reliability for disabled people in New York.
    Erik McGregor/LightRocket via Getty Images

    1. Rights at work

    The Americans with Disabilities Act, which became law in 1990, requires that employers with more than 15 employees not discriminate against otherwise qualified candidates on the basis of their disability. It also requires that employers provide reasonable accommodations to disabled workers. This means, for instance, that a new or renovated workplace should have accessible entrances so that a worker who uses a wheelchair can enter.

    Despite these protections, I have spoken to many disabled workers in my research who are reluctant to ask for accommodations for fear that a supervisor might think that they were too demanding or not worth continuing to employ.

    Trump’s actions in his first days in office have likely reinforced such fears.

    In one of the many executive orders Trump signed on Jan. 20, 2025, he called for the relevant government agencies to terminate what he called “all discriminatory programs,” including all diversity, equity, inclusion and accessibility policies, programs and activities that Trump deems “immoral.”

    The next day, Trump put workers in federal DEIA and accessibility positions on administrative leave.

    The following week, a tragic plane crash outside Washington, D.C., killed 67 people. Trump, without any evidence, blamed the crash on unidentified disabled workers in the Federal Aviation Administration, enumerating a wide and seemingly unrelated list of disabilities that, in his mind, meant that workers lacked the “special talent” to work at the FAA.

    Advocates quickly pushed back, pointing out that disabled workers meet all qualifications for federal and private sector jobs they are hired to perform.

    2. The federal workforce

    Many government disability programs have complex rules designed to limit the number of people who qualify for support.

    For instance, I study supplemental security income, a federal program that provides very modest cash support – on average, totaling US$697 a month in 2024 – to 7.4 million people who are disabled, blind or over 65 if they also have very low income and assets.

    It can take months or even years for someone to go through the process to initially document their disability and finances and show they qualify for SSI. Once approved, many beneficiaries want to make sure they don’t accidentally put their benefits at risk in situations where they are working very limited hours, for example.

    To get answers, they can go to a Social Security office or call an agency phone line. But there are already not enough agency workers to process applications or answer questions quickly. I spoke in 2022 with more than 10 SSI beneficiaries who waited on hold for hours while they tried to get more information about their cases, only to receive unclear or conflicting information.

    Such situations may grow even more severe, as Trump and billionaire Elon Musk try to eliminate large numbers of federal employee positions. So far, tens of thousands of federal workers have been laid off from their jobs in 2025. More layoffs may be coming – on Feb. 12, 2025, Trump instructed federal agency heads to prepare for further “large-scale reductions in force.”

    At the same time, multiple Social Security Administration offices have also been marked for closure since January 2025. An overall effect of these changes will be fewer workers to answer questions from disabled citizens.

    3. Educational opportunities

    Students with disabilities, like all students, are legally entitled to a free public education. This right is guaranteed under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act, passed in 1975. IDEA is enforced by the federal Education Department.

    But Trump is reportedly in the process of dismantling the Education Department, with the goal of eventually closing it. It is not clear what this will mean for Individuals with Disabilities in Education Act enforcement, but one possibility is laid out in the Project 2025 Mandate for Leadership, a policy blueprint with broad support in Trump’s administration.

    Project 2025 proposes that Individuals with Disabilities in Education Act funds “should be converted into a no-strings formula block grant.” Block grants are a funding structure by which federal funds are reduced and each state is given a lump sum rather than designating the programs the funds will support. In practice, this can mean that states divert the money to other programs or policy areas, which can create opportunities for funds to be misused.

    With block grants, local school districts would be subject to less federal oversight meant to ensure that they provide every student with an adequate education. Families who already must fight to ensure that their children receive the schooling they deserve will be put on weaker footing if the federal government signals that states can redirect the money as they wish.

    4. Health care

    Before President Barack Obama signed the Affordable Care Act into law in 2010, many disabled people lived with the knowledge that an insurer could regard a disability as a preexisting condition and thereby deny them coverage or charge more for their insurance.

    The ACA prohibited insurance companies from charging more or denying coverage based on preexisting conditions.

    Republicans have long opposed the ACA, with House Speaker Mike Johnson promising before the 2024 election to pursue an agenda of “No Obamacare.”

    About 15 million disabled people have health insurance through Medicaid, a federal health insurance program that covers more than 74 million low-income people. But large Medicaid cuts are also on the Republican agenda.

    These deep cuts might include turning Medicaid into another block grant. They could also partly take the form of imposing work requirements for Medicaid beneficiaries, which could serve as grounds on which to disqualify people from receiving benefits.

    While proponents of work requirements often claim that disabled people will be exempt, research shows that many will still lose health coverage, and that Medicaid coverage itself often supports people who are working.

    Medicaid is also a crucial source of funding for home- and community-based services, including personal attendants who help many people perform daily activities and live on their own. This helps disabled people live independently in their communities, rather than in institutional settings. Notably, Project 2025 points to so-called “nonmedical” services covered under Medicaid as part of the program’s “burden” on states.

    When home- and community-based services are unavailable, some disabled people have no options but to move into nursing homes. One recent analysis found that nursing homes housed roughly 210,000 long-term residents under age 65 with disabilities. Many nursing facilities are understaffed, which contributed to the brutal toll of the COVID-19 pandemic in nursing homes.

    In response to both the pandemic and years of advocacy, the Biden administration mandated higher staffing ratios at nursing homes receiving Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement. But Republicans are eyeing repealing that rule, according to Politico’s reporting.

    U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan, a Democrat, right, speaks during a press conference in Washington, D.C., on Feb. 19, 2025, on efforts to protect Medicaid from cuts.
    Nathan Poser/Anadolu via Getty Images

    Daunting task

    Tracking potential changes to disability policy is a complicated endeavor. There is no federal department of disability policy, for example.

    Instead, relevant laws and programs are spread throughout what we often think of as separate policy areas. So while disability policy includes obvious areas such as the Americans with Disabilities Act, it is also vitally relevant in areas such as immigration and emergency response.

    These issues of health care, education and more could impact millions of lives, but they are far from the only ones where Trump administration changes threaten to harm disabled people.

    Different programs have their own definitions of disability, which people seeking assistance must work to keep track of.

    This was a daunting task in 2024. Now it may become even more difficult.

    Matthew Borus received funding in the past from ARDRAW, a small grant program for graduate students working on disability research. The program was run by Policy Research, Inc. and funded by the Social Security Administration. The opinions and conclusions expressed here are solely the author’s.

    – ref. Cutting Medicaid and federal programs are among 4 key Trump administration policy changes that could make life harder for disabled people – https://theconversation.com/cutting-medicaid-and-federal-programs-are-among-4-key-trump-administration-policy-changes-that-could-make-life-harder-for-disabled-people-244458

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Philadelphia continues long history of Black-led protest meetings aimed at fighting racial inequity and prejudice

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Linn Washington, Jr., Professor of Journalism, Temple University

    Philadelphians attend a meeting at Germantown’s Center in the Park on Feb. 25, 2025, to strategize a new Black agenda. Linn Washington Jr. , CC BY-NC-ND

    A meeting in Philadelphia, held at a senior center on a bitter cold Saturday afternoon in late January 2025, drew nearly 300 people.

    They came for two key reasons.

    One was to voice outrage at the upsurge in policies and proposals nationwide that attack the advances of African Americans – many of which were secured in part through 1960s-era civil rights protests.

    The other was to begin to develop a “Black agenda” to counter those attacks in Philadelphia.

    In gathering communally to voice their concerns, attendees continued a legacy of Black-led protest meetings that spans over two centuries in the city.

    I am a professor of journalism at Temple University and a reporter who has covered racial inequities in America and abroad for 50 years. I was invited to attend the Philadelphia meeting to talk about the history of protest meetings in the city.

    That’s a history of successes and shortfalls that helped shape both Philadelphia and the nation.

    First mass meeting

    Over 200 years ago, what is considered the first mass protest meeting ever held in the United States by African Americans took place in Philadelphia.

    That little-known meeting, held in January 1817, drew 3,000 African Americans to Philadelphia’s historic Mother Bethel AME Church. The attendees came to denounce efforts by the American Colonization Society to relocate free Black Americans to a colony in West Africa. That group, with a predominately white membership that included prominent politicians and preachers, believed free Blacks could not be integrated into white America.

    The attendees at Mother Bethel in 1817 saw relocation as a forced removal of Black Americans from the homeland they supported as patriotically as white Americans. The unanimous opposition that attendees expressed helped change the stance of local Black leaders, such as Mother Bethel founder Richard Allen, from lukewarm supporters of relocation to opponents.

    Successes and shortfalls

    The tradition of mass meetings to address the adversity impacting Philadelphia’s African American community continued from the 19th century into the 20th and now the 21st century.

    The results have been mixed.

    For example, after members of the Pennsylvania state legislature proposed inserting a white-males-only voting restriction into the state’s constitution in 1838, denying voting rights for free Black men, Black Philadelphians held mass meetings to demand the provision be deleted.

    But those demands failed. Pennsylvania restricted voting to white men until 1870 when ratification of the 15th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution granted African American men the right to vote.

    However, mass meetings during the 1860s that had an agenda to desegregate trolleys in Philadelphia were successful. A law signed in 1867 banned segregated seating on public transit statewide.

    Renowned scholar and civil rights activist W.E.B. Du Bois credited “public meetings and repeated agitation” for that statewide ban in his seminal 1899 book “The Philadelphia Negro: A Social Study.”

    Demands to end police brutality have been the focus of mass meetings in the city at least since the 1918 formation of Philadelphia’s now-defunct Association for the Protection of Colored People. Abusive policing practices that continue in Philadelphia to this day point to a shortfall in fulfilling those demands.

    And yet, momentum from the key agenda item of mass meetings in the early 1970s – to increase political power – ultimately led to the election of the city’s first Black mayor, Wilson Goode, in 1983.

    Unfinished business

    Since 1817, Black-led protest meetings in Philadelphia have sought to end discrimination against African Americans. That consistent goal remains unrealized.

    The first national political conventions that African Americans staged in the U.S., beginning in September 1830, castigated discrimination. Convention attendees in 1831 sought an end to cruel and oppressive laws devised to disadvantage free Blacks.

    Nearly 150 years later, the “Human Rights Agenda” developed during a Philadelphia mass meeting in December 1978 and later the report from Philadelphia’s 2015 Black Political Summit Coalition both decried racial prejudice against African Americans.

    An observation that Du Bois made in “The Philadelphia Negro” about discrimination against African Americans in the so-called City of Brotherly Love retains contemporary relevance.

    A mural dedicated to Du Bois and the Old Seventh Ward is painted on the corner of 6th and South streets in Philadelphia.
    Paul Marotta/Getty Images Entertainment Collection via Getty Images

    Race prejudice “is a far more powerful social force than most Philadelphians realize,” Du Bois wrote. Most white Philadelphians, he noted, “are quite unconscious” regarding the prejudice that impacts Black residents. Their impulse is emphatically to deny such discrimination.

    Such denial allowed prejudice to persist then – and today.

    To begin to develop a new Black agenda, the organizers of the meeting at the senior center collected suggestions that attendees filed on note cards. They promised to publicly announce an action plan that is expected to involve economic boycotts and actions to strengthen the economic infrastructure in Philadelphia’s African American community.

    Defending rights and progress aroused attendees at that January meeting in 2025 as strongly as denouncing forced colonization aroused attendees at the mass meeting 208 years earlier.

    Read more of our stories about Philadelphia.

    Linn Washington, Jr. does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Philadelphia continues long history of Black-led protest meetings aimed at fighting racial inequity and prejudice – https://theconversation.com/philadelphia-continues-long-history-of-black-led-protest-meetings-aimed-at-fighting-racial-inequity-and-prejudice-249117

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What’s the shape of the universe? Mathematicians use topology to study the shape of the world and everything in it

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John Etnyre, Professor of Mathematics, Georgia Institute of Technology

    You can describe the shape you live on in multiple dimensions. vkulieva/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    When you look at your surrounding environment, it might seem like you’re living on a flat plane. After all, this is why you can navigate a new city using a map: a flat piece of paper that represents all the places around you. This is likely why some people in the past believed the earth to be flat. But most people now know that is far from the truth.

    You live on the surface of a giant sphere, like a beach ball the size of the Earth with a few bumps added. The surface of the sphere and the plane are two possible 2D spaces, meaning you can walk in two directions: north and south or east and west.

    What other possible spaces might you be living on? That is, what other spaces around you are 2D? For example, the surface of a giant doughnut is another 2D space.

    Through a field called geometric topology, mathematicians like me study all possible spaces in all dimensions. Whether trying to design secure sensor networks, mine data or use origami to deploy satellites, the underlying language and ideas are likely to be that of topology.

    The shape of the universe

    When you look around the universe you live in, it looks like a 3D space, just like the surface of the Earth looks like a 2D space. However, just like the Earth, if you were to look at the universe as a whole, it could be a more complicated space, like a giant 3D version of the 2D beach ball surface or something even more exotic than that.

    A doughnut, also called a torus, is a shape that you can move across in two directions, just like the surface of the Earth.
    YassineMrabet via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-NC-SA

    While you don’t need topology to determine that you are living on something like a giant beach ball, knowing all the possible 2D spaces can be useful. Over a century ago, mathematicians figured out all the possible 2D spaces and many of their properties.

    In the past several decades, mathematicians have learned a lot about all of the possible 3D spaces. While we do not have a complete understanding like we do for 2D spaces, we do know a lot. With this knowledge, physicists and astronomers can try to determine what 3D space people actually live in.

    While the answer is not completely known, there are many intriguing and surprising possibilities. The options become even more complicated if you consider time as a dimension.

    To see how this might work, note that to describe the location of something in space – say a comet – you need four numbers: three to describe its position and one to describe the time it is in that position. These four numbers are what make up a 4D space.

    Now, you can consider what 4D spaces are possible and in which of those spaces do you live.

    Topology in higher dimensions

    At this point, it may seem like there is no reason to consider spaces that have dimensions larger than four, since that is the highest imaginable dimension that might describe our universe. But a branch of physics called string theory suggests that the universe has many more dimensions than four.

    There are also practical applications of thinking about higher dimensional spaces, such as robot motion planning. Suppose you are trying to understand the motion of three robots moving around a factory floor in a warehouse. You can put a grid on the floor and describe the position of each robot by their x and y coordinates on the grid. Since each of the three robots requires two coordinates, you will need six numbers to describe all of the possible positions of the robots. You can interpret the possible positions of the robots as a 6D space.

    As the number of robots increases, the dimension of the space increases. Factoring in other useful information, such as the locations of obstacles, makes the space even more complicated. In order to study this problem, you need to study high-dimensional spaces.

    There are countless other scientific problems where high-dimensional spaces appear, from modeling the motion of planets and spacecraft to trying to understand the “shape” of large datasets.

    Tied up in knots

    Another type of problem topologists study is how one space can sit inside another.

    For example, if you hold a knotted loop of string, then we have a 1D space (the loop of string) inside a 3D space (your room). Such loops are called mathematical knots.

    The study of knots first grew out of physics but has become a central area of topology. They are essential to how scientists understand 3D and 4D spaces and have a delightful and subtle structure that researchers are still trying to understand.

    Knots are examples of spaces that sit inside other spaces.
    Jkasd/Wikimedia Commons

    In addition, knots have many applications, ranging from string theory in physics to DNA recombination in biology to chirality in chemistry.

    What shape do you live on?

    Geometric topology is a beautiful and complex subject, and there are still countless exciting questions to answer about spaces.

    For example, the smooth 4D Poincaré conjecture asks what the “simplest” closed 4D space is, and the slice-ribbon conjecture aims to understand how knots in 3D spaces relate to surfaces in 4D spaces.

    Topology is currently useful in science and engineering. Unraveling more mysteries of spaces in all dimensions will be invaluable to understanding the world in which we live and solving real-world problems.

    John Etnyre receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the Elaine M. Hubbard Distinguished Faculty Award

    – ref. What’s the shape of the universe? Mathematicians use topology to study the shape of the world and everything in it – https://theconversation.com/whats-the-shape-of-the-universe-mathematicians-use-topology-to-study-the-shape-of-the-world-and-everything-in-it-235635

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AIs flunk language test that takes grammar out of the equation

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Rutvik Desai, Professor of Psychology, University of South Carolina

    AIs can sound good without having a clue about what they’re saying. Carol Yepes/Moment via Getty Images

    Generative AI systems like large language models and text-to-image generators can pass rigorous exams that are required of anyone seeking to become a doctor or a lawyer. They can perform better than most people in Mathematical Olympiads. They can write halfway decent poetry, generate aesthetically pleasing paintings and compose original music.

    These remarkable capabilities may make it seem like generative artificial intelligence systems are poised to take over human jobs and have a major impact on almost all aspects of society. Yet while the quality of their output sometimes rivals work done by humans, they are also prone to confidently churning out factually incorrect information. Skeptics have also called into question their ability to reason.

    Large language models have been built to mimic human language and thinking, but they are far from human. From infancy, human beings learn through countless sensory experiences and interactions with the world around them. Large language models do not learn as humans do – they are instead trained on vast troves of data, most of which is drawn from the internet.

    The capabilities of these models are very impressive, and there are AI agents that can attend meetings for you, shop for you or handle insurance claims. But before handing over the keys to a large language model on any important task, it is important to assess how their understanding of the world compares to that of humans.

    I’m a researcher who studies language and meaning. My research group developed a novel benchmark that can help people understand the limitations of large language models in understanding meaning.

    Making sense of simple word combinations

    So what “makes sense” to large language models? Our test involves judging the meaningfulness of two-word noun-noun phrases. For most people who speak fluent English, noun-noun word pairs like “beach ball” and “apple cake” are meaningful, but “ball beach” and “cake apple” have no commonly understood meaning. The reasons for this have nothing to do with grammar. These are phrases that people have come to learn and commonly accept as meaningful, by speaking and interacting with one another over time.

    We wanted to see if a large language model had the same sense of meaning of word combinations, so we built a test that measured this ability, using noun-noun pairs for which grammar rules would be useless in determining whether a phrase had recognizable meaning. For example, an adjective-noun pair such as “red ball” is meaningful, while reversing it, “ball red,” renders a meaningless word combination.

    The benchmark does not ask the large language model what the words mean. Rather, it tests the large language model’s ability to glean meaning from word pairs, without relying on the crutch of simple grammatical logic. The test does not evaluate an objective right answer per se, but judges whether large language models have a similar sense of meaningfulness as people.

    We used a collection of 1,789 noun-noun pairs that had been previously evaluated by human raters on a scale of 1, does not make sense at all, to 5, makes complete sense. We eliminated pairs with intermediate ratings so that there would be a clear separation between pairs with high and low levels of meaningfulness.

    Large language models get that ‘beach ball’ means something, but they aren’t so clear on the concept that ‘ball beach’ doesn’t.
    PhotoStock-Israel/Moment via Getty Images

    We then asked state-of-the-art large language models to rate these word pairs in the same way that the human participants from the previous study had been asked to rate them, using identical instructions. The large language models performed poorly. For example, “cake apple” was rated as having low meaningfulness by humans, with an average rating of around 1 on scale of 0 to 4. But all large language models rated it as more meaningful than 95% of humans would do, rating it between 2 and 4. The difference wasn’t as wide for meaningful phrases such as “dog sled,” though there were cases of a large language model giving such phrases lower ratings than 95% of humans as well.

    To aid the large language models, we added more examples to the instructions to see if they would benefit from more context on what is considered a highly meaningful versus a not meaningful word pair. While their performance improved slightly, it was still far poorer than that of humans. To make the task easier still, we asked the large language models to make a binary judgment – say yes or no to whether the phrase makes sense – instead of rating the level of meaningfulness on a scale of 0 to 4. Here, the performance improved, with GPT-4 and Claude 3 Opus performing better than others – but they were still well below human performance.

    Creative to a fault

    The results suggest that large language models do not have the same sense-making capabilities as human beings. It is worth noting that our test relies on a subjective task, where the gold standard is ratings given by people. There is no objectively right answer, unlike typical large language model evaluation benchmarks involving reasoning, planning or code generation.

    The low performance was largely driven by the fact that large language models tended to overestimate the degree to which a noun-noun pair qualified as meaningful. They made sense of things that should not make much sense. In a manner of speaking, the models were being too creative. One possible explanation is that the low-meaningfulness word pairs could make sense in some context. A beach covered with balls could be called a “ball beach.” But there is no common usage of this noun-noun combination among English speakers.

    If large language models are to partially or completely replace humans in some tasks, they’ll need to be further developed so that they can get better at making sense of the world, in closer alignment with the ways that humans do. When things are unclear, confusing or just plain nonsense – whether due to a mistake or a malicious attack – it’s important for the models to flag that instead of creatively trying to make sense of almost everything.

    If an AI agent automatically responding to emails gets a message intended for another user in error, an appropriate response may be, “Sorry, this does not make sense,” rather than a creative interpretation. If someone in a meeting made incomprehensible remarks, we want an agent that attended the meeting to say the comments did not make sense. The agent should say, “This seems to be talking about a different insurance claim” rather than just “claim denied” if details of a claim don’t make sense.

    In other words, it’s more important for an AI agent to have a similar sense of meaning and behave like a human would when uncertain, rather than always providing creative interpretations.

    Rutvik Desai receives funding from NIH/NIDCD.

    – ref. AIs flunk language test that takes grammar out of the equation – https://theconversation.com/ais-flunk-language-test-that-takes-grammar-out-of-the-equation-247177

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How tourism and fish farming can thrive together

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mausam Budhathoki, Postdoctoral Researcher, Institute of Aquaculture, University of Stirling

    The tourism and aquaculture sectors have been working together in Oban, on Scotland’s west coast. Rab Woods/Shutterstock

    In many coastal regions, tourism and fish farms are vital industries that drive economic growth. Yet, they often compete for space, raising concerns about how to balance these two sectors without compromising the environment or local livelihoods.

    In Oban, on the west coast of Scotland, the twin industries of tourism and aquaculture are learning to coexist – and even thrive together. Coastal communities can face economic challenges due to the seasonal nature of tourism as well as often limited job options. Their reliance on coastal resources, which are increasingly affected by environmental changes, can heighten the difficulties.

    Aquaculture in high-income countries hasn’t always had the best reputation. Public perception can be negative due to concerns about the environmental impact and resource use. But when it’s practised sustainably, aquaculture can in fact help meet global food demands and contribute to the UN’s sustainable development goals, a blueprint for economic growth that’s equitable and environmentally aware.

    Our recent study explored how tourists perceive aquaculture during their holiday and whether exposure to fish farms influences their willingness to consume locally farmed seafood. The results suggest that integrating aquaculture and tourism can increase awareness of sustainable seafood and create economic opportunities.

    Oban’s coastline is home to salmon farms, shellfish cultivation, including mussels and oysters, and new seaweed farms. All of these sit in waters popular for marine tours. The tours attract visitors eager to learn more about local wildlife and history. But, aquaculture often faces criticism due to its impact on the landscape and marine ecosystems.

    This tension is not unique to Oban. Across Europe, aquaculture growth has stagnated despite its potential to improve food security and sustainability. Regulatory challenges and conflicts over space are significant hurdles. This is especially true in coastal communities where the acceptance and support of the community – known as a “social licence to operate” – is crucial.

    But our study offers a promising solution: aquaculture–tourism integration. By showcasing aquaculture as part of the tourism experience, Oban can educate visitors, encourage greater acceptance of sustainable farming practices and boost the local economy.

    What tourists think about aquaculture

    We surveyed 200 tourists on marine tours in Oban to understand how they view aquaculture. The responses revealed three main types of tourists. These are those with multiple motivations (visitors drawn by nature, socialising and learning); “relaxers” (tourists seeking rest and relaxation, often with little previous knowledge of aquaculture); and outgoing nature enthusiasts (active travellers who value wildlife and environmental conservation).

    Despite their different motivations, most tourists responded positively to seeing fish farms during their tours. The most notable shift was among the “relaxers”, who were more interested in eating locally farmed seafood after learning about sustainable farming practices. This shows how education and direct experience can reshape the way seafood production is perceived.

    Aquaculture sites are often viewed as eyesores, but our findings show that when framed as part of local culture, they can actually enrich the tourist experience. Tourists appreciated learning about sustainable seafood production as the boats approached floating net cages and began to view aquaculture as a positive part of the community.

    Marine tours could include stops at aquaculture sites to let visitors see the operation, hear from farmers and even sample the products. This would present an opportunity to engage tourists and encourage a connection with the industry – potentially building trust with the public.

    A successful hybrid venture in the seas around Rhodes, Greece.

    This kind of integration offers several advantages. First, it can drive economic growth by attracting tourists interested in sustainable food and environmental practices. This can create a new revenue stream for both the aquaculture and tourism sectors. For example, a small farm on the Greek island of Rhodes partners with a diving centre to offer marine biology tours and dives around its site. Visitors learn about sustainable aquaculture and swim with sea bream in net pens, exploring how these practices support environmental conservation.

    Beyond the economic benefits, it can also raise environmental awareness. As tourists learn about sustainable seafood farming, they are more likely to support more environmentally friendly food production in general.

    By understanding how aquaculture contributes to food security, public perceptions could shift, leading to broader acceptance of aquaculture as a solution for global food challenges. And positive experiences of aquaculture not only shift perceptions but also make it easier for operators to win support from the community and encourage a more responsible approach to farming practices. However, it’s important that these efforts are honest and truly focused on environmental and social responsibility.

    While many of the benefits are clear, there are challenges. Both aquaculture and tourism can damage the environment. Tourism can lead to habitat disruption and pollution, while poorly managed aquaculture can affect water quality and marine biodiversity.

    But when farms are regularly visited as part of tourism activities such as boat tours or guided farm visits, there is a greater incentive to maintain high environmental standards. Nonetheless, careful planning and regulation are essential to ensure both sectors operate sustainably without harming ecosystems.

    Another challenge is the aesthetic impact of aquaculture, a common issue with industrial food production. Fish farms inevitably alter coastal landscapes, but operators can choose design solutions that balance production needs with preserving the outlook.

    Finally, competition for resources and space can lead to conflicts between tourism and aquaculture. Coastal communities must manage these demands carefully to ensure both sectors can thrive. This requires collaboration between tourism operators and aquaculture farmers to prevent clashes over infrastructure and resources.

    Oban’s successful integration of aquaculture and tourism offers a model that can could be replicated by coastal communities globally. But barriers, such as the remoteness of some farms or regulatory requirements, may limit feasibility. However, by transforming fish farms into educational attractions, Oban demonstrates how sustainable practices can benefit both sectors.

    With a focus on cooperation, education and responsible farming, an integrated approach between tourism operators and aquaculture companies could strengthen the reputation of local seafood. Ultimately, it offers a sustainable model for coastal communities.

    Mausam Budhathoki receives funding from the EATFISH project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (Grant 956697).

    Dave Little receives funding from EATFISH project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (Grant 956697).

    – ref. How tourism and fish farming can thrive together – https://theconversation.com/how-tourism-and-fish-farming-can-thrive-together-249835

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How poetry can help us understand mass extinction events

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kate Simpson, PhD Candidate, Extinction Studies, University of Leeds

    Photo by Bea Vallejo on Unsplash.

    Extinction is inevitable. Expected. Almost all (99%) species that have ever existed have died out. Those disappearances have largely occurred at consistent background rates. But in the context of mass extinctions, ecosystems are placed under immense pressure, at above-average speeds. Here, the language changes from the commonplace to the exceptional.

    The most recent of these events occurred at the end of the Cretaceous period, 66 million years ago, following an asteroid collision off the shore of Mexico. And 252 million years ago, at the Permian-Triassic boundary, Earth experienced its most severe loss of animal species to date when mass volcanisms pumped carbon into the air, suffocating life and acidifying oceans, killing off up to 96% of all marine species.

    It is widely accepted that we are currently witnessing the start of a sixth mass extinction. Humans are dramatic ecosystem engineers – irrevocably altering environments and habitats. Past extinction events offer clues about how the Earth has previously responded to being placed under such severe pressure.

    But how can we better understand this extinction? How does this knowledge reach us, as humans, readers, engineers?

    In my anthology Out of Time: Poetry from the Climate Emergency (2021), I argued that poetry has a unique power to explore the stakes and potential of a sixth mass extinction event. In poetry, each mechanism is part of a larger conceptual machine designed to evoke and provoke in boundless, generous ways. As I wrote, poetry “distils ideas … into their most refined and impacting state”. It’s “synaesthetic, with the freedom to join the senses and activate our understanding of a given subject in innate, unsettling, and inexplicable ways”. And it’s “economical … a compressed world ready to be opened up and expanded by the reader”.

    However, poetry is also a space of necessary complication and conflict, being both expansive and limited, affective and affected by human bias. As the poet Ben Lerner notes in The Hatred of Poetry (2016) “you’re moved to write … but as soon as you move from that impulse to the actual poem, the song of the infinite is compromised by the finitude of its terms … you’re back in the human world with its inflexible laws and logic”. This inflexible logic is invaluable, given that it shapes, defines and influences our actions on the planet.

    The geologist Marcia Bjornerud has attributed rapid anthropogenic destruction, and its role in triggering a sixth mass extinction event, to narrow perspectives and shallow, linear thinking. The solution, she suggests, is in attending to the layers of an ancient Earth, contextualising differing rates of change (or tempos) with a “polytemporal” worldview.

    In 2022, I joined the UK’s first Extinction Studies doctoral training programme. I sought to explore how, and to what extent, I could cultivate a “polytemporal” perspective through palaeontological study and poetic practice.

    I set out to understand how words can help us to develop a deeper frame of reference that not only acknowledges but attempts to conceive of immense timescales. This work has taken me from Iceland’s melting glaciers to the ancient geological formations of the Scottish small isles, exploring chronostratigraphic boundaries – sites where eras are thought to start and end.

    Engineering intersections

    Poetry and palaeontology both work with strata. Strata is both literal and literary, sedimentary and metaphoric: it is to be read, to be interpreted, to be imagined around. In poetry, lines function as units of meaning: they can be categorised and contained, but they are part of a larger whole. And in poems (unlike most prose) words offer as much meaning as the silence that surrounds them; the page is not blank, but a negative space through which words resonate, into which meaning is made, or borne from.

    As the poet Don Paterson writes: “Silence is the poet’s ground. Silence delineates the formal borders of the poem, and the formal arrangement of silences puts language under pressure … underwrites the status of the poem as significant mark”. Likewise, fossils offer as much meaning as the negative space that surrounds them, the sediment from which they are excavated. Absence is evidential. It may denote where species moved from extant to extinct. It may denote the environmental pressures that caused this.

    The poet Jorie Graham states that silence “is the sound of the earth … [it] does not need you to interrupt it”. It’s true. Earth, and its ecosystems, do not require us to write, do not require us to make meaning of the past: to name and categorise epochs, eras and events as they layer and compress into strata. However, if we are to alter ecosystems so exceptionally, it is required that we understand the deep time context of our actions, as well as how context provides meaning; how meaning provides emotional value; how emotions drive action.

    Poems are ecosystems that we engineer. They are not spaces where images are created, but where images are transformed from pre-existing vocabularies, cast into meaning against the blank space. Poems may not be so sufficiently affective or effective that they can bring an end to anthropogenic destruction. But, they do demonstrate, on a small scale, how nothing can be made, read, or understood in isolation. That human thinking is bound by certain margins: spatial, temporal, conceptual.

    To comprehend extinction requires us to know how imagination works; where it reaches its limits. Poetry, as an anthropogenic art and process, shows us how to read. Poetry shows us how to recognise connections that occur on both visible and invisible levels.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Kate Simpson receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust.

    – ref. How poetry can help us understand mass extinction events – https://theconversation.com/how-poetry-can-help-us-understand-mass-extinction-events-238813

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Starmer announces aid cuts to fund defence – but Britain’s days as an aid superpower are already long over

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Balazs Szent-Ivanyi, Reader in Politics and International Relations and Deputy Director Aston Centre for Europe, Aston University

    Keir Starmer’s announcement that the UK will cut foreign aid in order to fund more defence spending seems like smart politics. With the US’s commitment to European security in question, it is clear that European countries, including the UK, need to spend more on defence.

    The US president, Donald Trump, with whom the prime minister is meeting on Thursday, has long called out Europeans for free-riding on America’s security guarantee. Credible promises of more British defence spending (including on American kit) may also deter Trump from introducing tariffs on UK imports.

    Building up the UK’s and Europe’s defence capabilities comes with a hefty price tag, and finding the money is tricky. The UK economy has weak growth prospects, and Labour has made a pledge not to increase taxes “on working people”. This leaves budget cuts in other areas as the only approach. The government seems to have decided that cutting foreign aid may be the least painful option for voters.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

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    Foreign aid has generally been seen as an area of government spending which has relatively weak groups of domestic supporters. Charities and companies that directly benefit from aid spending through government contracts are a smallish group, and many receive funding from several sources.

    Hostility to aid among the general public is relatively high. According to a 2024 survey by the British Foreign Policy Group, 46% of Britons surveyed thought that UK aid should not return to its previous high of 0.7% of gross national income (GNI), or should be cut even further below the 0.5% at the time of that survey.

    A frequent argument made by successive British governments is that aid, by targeting poverty and conflict, can address the root causes of migration. The public, however, is sceptical about aid’s ability to reduce irregular migration or make the UK safer.



    Read more:
    Why many policies to lower migration actually increase it

    Although Labour voters are more positive about aid’s benefits, it is unlikely that the government would see any major electoral harm from reductions to the aid budget.

    Where aid is really used

    While cutting aid may be a smart move politically, it will have longer-term consequences for the UK’s global influence and its ability to achieve positive change in the world. Many charities were quick to point this out, arguing that it will hurt the lives of the poorest across the world.

    Aid is now set to shrink from 0.5% of GNI to 0.3%, which implies the UK will still have a substantial aid programme. On average, rich countries spent 0.37% of their GNI on aid in 2023 – not much more than what the UK will spend now.

    In practice, however, 23% of the British aid budget in 2023 was made up by Home Office spending on housing refugees in the UK. This is unlikely to decline quickly, even though the government has said it aims to reduce it. A further 34% consisted of contributions to multilateral organisations like the United Nations and World Bank. While there is scope to cut some of this, large savings are difficult without the UK leaving some organisations.

    Given these two fixed items, very little will remain for “genuine” development programmes in partner countries – the kind of funding that is actually visible as UK aid.



    Read more:
    The UK spent a third of its international aid budget on refugees in the UK – what it’s paying for, and why it’s a problem

    Such a small genuine aid programme will undoubtedly mean lower development impact and lower British influence. But the UK’s standing and soft power, particularly in poorer countries, was already in tatters well before Starmer’s announcement.

    The merger between the Foreign Office and Department for International Development in 2020, followed by budget cuts and the re-allocation of aid to the Home Office, has destroyed the UK’s reputation as an “aid superpower” and champion of the global poor.

    Across-the-board cuts have even devastated programmes which the UK has declared as priority areas, such as support for women and girls. Some would argue that after these cuts, the UK did not have much of a reputation left to lose.

    But this story of UK aid is not unique. Indeed, the world has entered a new era of aid fatigue. The populist right portrays aid as wasteful and ineffective, as shown by the Trump administration’s dismantling of the US Agency for International Development.



    Read more:
    USAID’s freeze has thrust the entire global aid system into uncertainty

    Many Africans see aid as a neocolonial enterprise aimed at spreading western ideologies, a sentiment often echoed by the progressive left. Western countries themselves are increasingly open about their selfish reasons for providing aid, such as boosting business, while many non-western donors have emerged as alternatives.

    It is not a surprise that the west’s influence in the world has waned, as evidenced by its failure to build a global anti-Russia coalition following the invasion of Ukraine.

    The UK will need to adapt to these realities. Designing a smarter and highly targeted aid programme, perhaps from the ground up, is now more important than ever to rebuild Britain’s reputation.

    Balazs Szent-Ivanyi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Starmer announces aid cuts to fund defence – but Britain’s days as an aid superpower are already long over – https://theconversation.com/starmer-announces-aid-cuts-to-fund-defence-but-britains-days-as-an-aid-superpower-are-already-long-over-250873

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine war: why negotiations depend on trust

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David J. Wilcox, Part-Time Teaching Fellow, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Birmingham

    Donald Trump may have begun discussions with the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, over a possible end to the war in Ukraine, but there currently appears to be something of a stalemate.

    Russia’s stated objectives of holding on to five regions of Ukraine (including Crimea) as well as ensuring Ukraine’s permanent neutrality is unlikely to be acceptable to Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky. Meanwhile, Zelensky and Trump had a very public falling out, with the US president calling Zelensky a “dictator”.

    This seems to have been resolved somewhat now that the pair appear to have agreed a deal for the US to jointly develop Ukraine’s mineral resources. But serious further negotiation to actually end the war will depend on whether the key players can trust each other as well as whether Zelensky perceives anything Putin and Trump have to say as believable.

    Broadly speaking, trust and its development between leaders offers a potential route to overcoming international conflict and bringing about diplomatic agreement. Indeed, a minimum level of trust is needed to enable states to work together.

    An example of this was how the relationship between Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and US president Ronald Reagan developed. Arguably it was regular face-to-face interactions between Gorbachev and Reagan (four summits in just over three years) which allowed them to develop a level of understanding and increase trust, allowing them to reduce nuclear weapon stockpiles.

    Nevertheless, it still took time to develop their trust and this remained fragile.

    How is trust won?

    Trust is an important element in effective negotiations and can shape their outcome and influence whether peace talks are successful. The importance of trust in a negotiation can be found throughout history.

    US talks with Russia in Saudi Arabia, February 2025.

    Even if trust has potentially developed between leaders, if other individual decision-makers, such as military leaders, do not share that trust, it can seriously damage negotiations. One example of this is how the Lahore peace process between India and Pakistan in 1999 was undermined by Pakistani military action.

    General Pervez Musharraf, head of the armed forces, conducted a military incursion into the Jammu and Kashmir area, violating the treaty between the two states and leading to a breakdown in trust, undermining the peace deal signed earlier that year between the Pakistani prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, and his Indian counterpart, Atal Bihari Vajpayee

    Who do you trust?

    In international relations terms the key factors that create trust are considered by scholars to be capacity, peaceful intention, integrity and predictability . Trump seems to believe that Putin is a trustworthy negotiating partner because he perceives him as sincere in his desire for peace. This view is not shared by Zelensky, who questions Putin’s sincerity, intentions and integrity .

    Zelensky suggests that Putin’s past actions (including leading a full-scale invasion of Ukraine) point towards his future untrustworthiness. This may be underlined by Russia’s dismissal of the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, which were an attempt to negotiate a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine but were never properly implemented. Instead of pursuing implementation, Russia chose further military action against Ukraine in 2022.

    To move forward with negotiations, Zelensky will need to be convinced that Putin is serious in his intentions and willing to act with integrity. The Ukrainian leader will also need to be convinced that Trump is trustworthy and that he can trust that the US will ensure that Putin honours any agreement reached.

    If Trump is to achieve his aim of bringing the war to an end, then he will clearly need to address this lack of trust. One temptation may emerge to simply exclude Zelensky from face-to-face meetings (to sidestep the issue altogether) but there are risks in leaders not meeting opponents.

    When it came to trying to reach an agreement with the Palestinians in the 1990s, the then Israeli prime minister, Yitzhak Rabin, regretted not having met the PLO chairman, Yasser Arafat, before reaching agreement on the framework for the Oslo accords because he would have better understood how Arafat saw the negotiations. The implication was that Rabin would have proceeded differently if he had known Arafat better.

    Alternatively, Trump could leverage his own relationship with Putin to “encourage” the Russian leader to take steps that demonstrate to Zelensky that he is a trustworthy negotiating partner. Crucially, it will be for Putin to demonstrate his seriousness and sincerity towards meaningful negotiations and a peaceful resolution. Gestures of conciliation could hold the key.

    One famous examples of this is when Egyptian president Anwar Sadat visited Jerusalem in 1978, becoming the first Arab leader to speak to the Israeli parliament. This was seen as vital to peace talks between the two countries and resulted in the 1979 Camp David accords.

    Face-to-face interactions between Putin and Zelensky could provide a way of reassuring the Ukrainian leader. However, much more is required to demonstrate that an individual or even a state is trustworthy than not.

    As Deborah Larson, professor of political science at the University of California, once said,: “People believe that a good person will never do anything bad, whereas a bad person can do occasional good as well as bad deeds. As a result, just one misdeed indicates that an actor is immoral, whereas one good act does not demonstrate much.”

    Another approach would be to start Russian-Ukrainian negotiations at a much lower level and develop them upwards (or in parallel to higher-level negotiations). Individuals representing the key decision makers could develop their own interpersonal relations, while working out how to bridge gaps between the different leaders.

    Any negotiations to end the war will rest ultimately on those two states and their leaders. Ignoring the interpersonal relationships and lack of trust between the two people who will sign off any agreement makes any agreement almost impossible.

    David J. Wilcox does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine war: why negotiations depend on trust – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-why-negotiations-depend-on-trust-250102

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump and Europe: US ‘transactionalism on steroids’ is the challenge facing leaders now

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Glencross, Directeur d’ESPOL, Professeur de Science Politique, Institut catholique de Lille (ICL)

    Donald Trump has always been an avowed transactionalist rather than a transatlanticist. The author of The Art of the Deal made it clear during his first term as US president that he thought Nato was a bad deal for the US. He publicly berated European allies, notably Germany, for not spending enough on defence and leaving the US to pick up the tab.

    But with his Ukraine policy, Trump 2.0 is forcing Europeans to confront the previously unthinkable: an international order where the US is no longer an automatic ally of European security.

    Lord Ismay, the first secretary-general of Nato, quipped that the purpose of the transatlantic alliance was to “keep the Soviet Union out, the Americans in, and the Germans down”. For the following decades, Nato worked pretty much as intended. It provided the political and organisational basis for a significant US military presence, including an active US nuclear deterrent.

    The transatlantic alliance nevertheless witnessed some significant disagreements. In 1966, French president Charles de Gaulle forced US and other allied troops to leave French soil and withdrew from Nato’s integrated military command. The 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq generated enormous tension among Nato allies as France and Germany opposed American attempts to get UN backing for military action. Yet within months, these two countries made a major commitment to the Nato force that was deployed to Afghanistan for 20 years.

    Like any international organisation, Nato’s history thus reflects a mix of success, failure, and muddling through. Ukraine-Nato relations encapsulate this reality. In 2008, the US was pushing European allies to welcome Ukraine as a Nato member. Back then, it was the leaders of France and Germany who refused to back the proposal.

    No longer an ally

    In the aftermath of the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea, Ukraine pursued a twin track of seeking EU and Nato membership. This strategy is based on the longstanding complementary nature of European integration and transatlantic collective security. Central and eastern European countries embraced this arrangement after the collapse of the Soviet Union, much to the displeasure of Vladimir Putin.

    But Trump’s actions since January have fundamentally called into question the reliability of the US as a European ally. His insistence on doing a minerals deal to guarantee that Ukraine pays back US support for the war effort is transactionalism on steroids. It is also a unilateral move that contradicts the multilateral approach for supporting Ukraine that the US coordinated via the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, an alliance of 57 nations founded in 2022.

    More worrying still is Trump’s break with the underlying common values underpinning Nato. An alliance committed to defending its territorial integrity, including through the use of its nuclear arsenal, requires a commitment to a higher political goal. Since the end of the cold war, that overriding objective has been defined as freedom and democracy.

    The second Trump administration does not even seem to want to pay lip service to these transatlantic values. Trump has labelled Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky a “dictator”. And at the latest UN summit, the US delegation voted with Russia, Belarus and North Korea against a resolution condemning Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.



    Read more:
    US says European security no longer its primary focus – the shift has been years in the making

    EU defence without the US

    Shell-shocked European leaders are adapting to this harsh new reality. An initial reaction, as illustrated by UK prime minister Keir Starmer and French president Emmanuel Macron, has been to promise more money for defence spending. This move constitutes a hedge: it ought to please Trump, while providing a platform for a future reconfiguration of European security.

    How to defend Europe is now an existential question rather than a purely material one. De Gaulle always insisted that Europe’s defence and foreign policy needed to serve its own interests rather than America’s. He lost that battle, but the newly elected German chancellor, Friedrich Merz, is sounding rather Gaullist in his recent calls for a more independent European security policy.

    Another move taken from de Gaulle’s playbook is the EU’s focus on defence industrial strategy. A strong technological and industrial base is a pre-requisite of an independent security policy, and with this in mind, the EU’s defence industry programme was announced in spring 2024. The details of this new policy are currently being hashed out, but are likely to include some type of “made in Europe” requirement.



    Read more:
    Ukraine: prospects for peace are slim unless Europe grips the reality of Trump’s world

    Europe has to renew its purpose

    What is clear is that an independent security policy for Europe is both costly and a political minefield – one reliable estimate puts the cost at 250 billion euros per year. Getting public backing for this big spending increase is not impossible, yet it means tough choices, as shown by Starmer’s cuts to the UK’s foreign aid budget.

    Trickier still is finding the leadership to coordinate defence spending and strategy. European decision-makers and the parties they represent are far from aligned over the need to find an alternative to the US security guarantee. Indeed, Polish president Andrzej Duda responded to Merz’s calls for greater EU independence from the US by offering to host the US troops currently based in Germany.

    Trump has shattered a number of European illusions. Creating a new European security architecture will depend on finding more than just cash – it needs a new shared objective, not just a repudiation of grubby transactionalism.

    Andrew Glencross does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump and Europe: US ‘transactionalism on steroids’ is the challenge facing leaders now – https://theconversation.com/trump-and-europe-us-transactionalism-on-steroids-is-the-challenge-facing-leaders-now-250836

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Renewable energy: rural areas can be the EU’s green powerhouse

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Lewis Dijkstra, Team Leader Urban and Territorial Analysis, Joint Research Centre (JRC)

    The European Union aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% in 2030 compared to 1990 levels, and to become the first carbon-neutral economy by 2050. This ambitious goal requires a radical increase in the production of green energy within a relatively short timeframe. The untapped potential of rural areas in the union offers a way forward.

    Rural areas could produce more energy than we need

    Rural areas cover more than 80% of the EU’s territory and are host to around 30% of its population. Our work at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) shows that rural territories already generate the largest share of green electricity (72%) from the three most prominent renewable technologies: solar photovoltaic, onshore wind and hydropower. The remaining share of renewable energy is produced in towns and suburbs (22%) and cities (6%). Germany, Spain, France, Italy and Sweden are the top five renewable energy producers in the union, accounting for 68% of its total production from solar, onshore wind and hydropower installations.

    But there is more. According to our analyses, rural areas also possess the highest untapped potential of renewable energy production–nearly 80%. Theoretically, they could produce enough to meet the total energy demand of the EU. We estimate that the total potential of solar, onshore wind and hydropower energy production in rural areas nears 12,500 terawatt hours per year. That’s more than five times the amount of electricity the union consumed in 2023, and it surpasses total energy consumption (which includes sources such as gas, oil and coal) for that year, too.

    Technologies that suit the land

    All this energy could be produced in rural areas without disrupting existing agricultural systems, landscapes and natural resources. Rural areas could produce up to 60 times more solar energy than what they currently deliver, quadruple their output from wind, and boost hydropower production by 25%. Spain, Romania, France, Portugal and Italy are the five EU countries with the highest combined (solar, wind and hydropower) untapped potential: together, they account for 67% of the EU’s potential, with contributions from rural areas ranging from 92% in France to 49% in Italy.

    Overall, solar panels installed on the ground can make the biggest contribution to green energy production in the EU. However, rural areas across the union are highly diverse, so choosing the right technology would depend on local characteristics. Mountainous areas with abundant water resources are a good fit for hydropower production, while rural municipalities with large areas of suitable land lend themselves to solar or wind energy, depending on sun irradiation and wind speed. In rural areas where wind and land are insufficient, rooftop photovoltaic systems are a good option.

    Boosting clean energy production can be a win-win

    Rural areas are key to producing more renewable energy, as almost 80% of suitable, available land is located there. In addition, some of these areas are facing demographic and economic decline and are already the target of measures aimed at making them stronger, resilient and prosperous–as part of the EU’s long-term vision for rural areas. In this context, ensuring that these areas benefit economically from hosting more renewable energy projects makes them even more enticing. It also aligns with political considerations, as energy independence is a key part of the EU’s goal of strategic autonomy.



    À lire aussi :
    Could the EU’s Green Deal provide security benefits?

    Addressing local concerns and fostering acceptance

    While the potential offered by renewables is unquestionable, their production sites can face resistance from communities concerned about impacts on the local economy and quality of life. Seeing land used to produce energy with little local employment and seemingly for the benefit of large companies can also lead to resistance. Other concerns include competition for land use in areas where income is tied to other industries (such as agriculture or tourism), and the potential environmental impact of solar panels and wind or hydropower plants on rustic landscapes. With these concerns in mind, we identified portions of land suitable to host renewable energy plants that comprise roughly 3.4% of the EU’s surface. We excluded protected nature sites and biodiversity areas, forests and water bodies. We used strict limits on the use of agricultural land for energy production by only considering land that has been abandoned or has a very low productivity. Finally, we created buffer zones around infrastructure and settlements to minimise disturbance and safeguard natural beauty and cultural heritage.

    Engaging local communities to find solutions

    In our report, several case studies show the successful implementation of renewable energy projects in rural areas, driven by community engagement, collaboration and innovative financing models. From the first community-owned turbine in southern Europe in Catalonia, Spain, to a commercial energy company giving part of its profits to a local cause chosen with an energy community in the northern Netherlands, these cases highlight the potential for such projects to contribute to energy security, produce economic and social benefits and promote environmental sustainability.

    These case studies show that active involvement of local communities from the early stages of renewable energy projects can foster acceptance. Citizens who are actively engaged or even share ownership in small- or medium-scale projects become more supportive. Beyond seeing profits stay local, engaged communities can mitigate negative effects of production by, for instance, choosing where to locate new energy plants.

    Our report also offers an overview of renewable energy communities’ role in ensuring a sustainable energy transition in which rural areas are not left behind. The number of renewable energy communities in the EU is rising and, although an exact count is unavailable, it is estimated that there were over 4,000 of them, with some 900,000 members, in 2023. These communities are mainly concentrated in northwest Europe, and a high proportion are rural. Beyond energy communities, place-based approaches, where local populations and administrations are engaged from the early stages and see clear benefits, can make an important contribution to our sustainable transition.

    Lewis Dijkstra ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Renewable energy: rural areas can be the EU’s green powerhouse – https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-rural-areas-can-be-the-eus-green-powerhouse-250669

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Jewish Council slams Australian universities’ ‘dangerous, politicised’ antisemitism definition

    Asia Pacific Report

    An independent Jewish body has condemned the move by Australia’s 39 universities to endorse a “dangerous and politicised” definition of antisemitism which threatens academic freedom.

    The Jewish Council of Australia, a diverse coalition of Jewish academics, lawyers, writers and teachers, said in a statement that the move would have a “chilling effect” on legitimate criticism of Israel, and risked institutionalising anti-Palestinian racism.

    The council also criticised the fact that the universities had done so “without meaningful consultation” with Palestinian groups or diverse Jewish groups which were critical of Israel.

    The definition was developed by the Group of Eight (Go8) universities and adopted by Universities Australia.

    “By categorising Palestinian political expression as inherently antisemitic, it will be unworkable and unenforceable, and stifle critical political debate, which is at the heart of any democratic society,” the Jewish Council of Australia said.

    “The definition dangerously conflates Jewish identities with support for the state of Israel and the political ideology of Zionism.”

    The council statement said that it highlighted two key concerns:

    Mischaracterisation of criticism of Israel
     The definition states: “Criticism of Israel can be antisemitic when it is grounded in harmful tropes, stereotypes or assumptions and when it calls for the elimination of the State of Israel or all Jews or when it holds Jewish individuals or communities responsible for Israel’s actions.”

    The definition’s inclusion of “calls for the elimination of the State of Israel” would mean, for instance, that calls for a single binational democratic state, where Palestinians and Israelis had equal rights, could be labelled antisemitic.

    Moreover, the wording around “harmful tropes” was dangerously vague, failing to distinguish between tropes about Jewish people, which were antisemitic, and criticism of the state of Israel, which was not, the statement said.

    Misrepresentation of Zionism as core to Jewish identity
     The definition states that for most Jewish people “Zionism is a core part of their Jewish identity”.

    The council said it was deeply concerned that by adopting this definition, universities would be taking and promoting a view that a national political ideology was a core part of Judaism.

    “This is not only inaccurate, but is also dangerous,” said the statement.

    “Zionism is a political ideology of Jewish nationalism, not an intrinsic part of Jewish identity.

    “There is a long history of Jewish opposition to Zionism, from the beginning of its emergence in the late-19th century, to the present day. Many, if not the majority, of people who hold Zionist views today are not Jewish.”

    In contrast to Zionism and the state of Israel, said the council, Jewish identities traced back more than 3000 years and spanned different cultures and traditions.

    Jewish identities were a rightly protected category under all racial discrimination laws, whereas political ideologies such as Zionism and support for Israel were not, the council said.

    Growing numbers of dissenting Jews
    “While many Jewish people identify as Zionist, many do not. There are a growing number of Jewish people worldwide, including in Australia, who disagree with the actions of the state of Israel and do not support Zionism.

    “Australian polling in this area is not definitive, but some polls suggest that 30 percent of Australian Jews do not identify as Zionists.

    “A recent Canadian poll found half of Canadian Jews do not identify as Zionist. In the United States, more and more Jewish people are turning away from Zionist beliefs and support for the state of Israel.”

    Sarah Schwartz, a human rights lawyer and the Jewish Council of Australia’s executive officer, said: “It degrades the very real fight against antisemitism for it to be weaponised to silence legitimate criticism of the Israeli state and Palestinian political expressions.

    “It also risks fomenting division between communities and institutionalising anti-Palestinian racism.”

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 15 million South Africans don’t get enough to eat every day: 4 solutions

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Stephen Devereux, Research Fellow, Institute of Development Studies

    At least 15 million South Africans suffer from food insecurity. That means they don’t have enough nutritious food to live healthy lives.

    This is due to a combination of factors, including unemployment, poverty, inequality and food system failures.

    More than 1,000 children die from malnutrition each year. This compares unfavourably with 350 child deaths from malnutrition in Brazil, which has more than three times South Africa’s population, and 269 child deaths in Colombia, which has about the same per capita income as South Africa.

    A robust indicator of chronic hunger is child stunting. Stunting in South Africa has flatlined at around 25%, or one in four children, since the early 1990s. Other middle-income countries such as Brazil and Peru have made impressive progress. Peru halved its rate from 28% in 2008 to 13% in 2016, after the president committed to reducing stunting.



    Read more:
    South Africa’s hunger problem is turning into a major health crisis

    How can South Africa’s government deliver on the right to food and begin the urgent process of eradicating hunger?

    We have worked on food security and food justice for many years. We’ve researched the links between social protection and hunger and between food systems and nutrition, and the cost of hunger.

    Based on this experience, our view is that food shortages are not a cause of hunger in South Africa. The country produces and imports all the food it needs. Instead, the problem is unequal access to food. While some South Africans live in a world of abundance, with no budget constraints, millions more survive below the food poverty line, unable to afford even a basic nutritious diet for their families.

    We believe that the government must deliver on the constitutional right to food and begin the urgent process of eradicating hunger. It can do this by expanding the social grant system, extending the school nutrition programme, reducing food waste, and ensuring access to land for low-income rural and peri-urban households.

    Above all, a coherent and coordinated strategy for tackling hunger is needed, led by a minister of food, following models like Brazil’s Zero Hunger initiative. In December 2024, Brazil handed over the G20 presidency to South Africa, after it launched the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty. South Africa should embrace the embrace the spirit and focus of the alliance to develop its own Zero Hunger strategy.

    Four steps to end hunger

    The South African government pays out 19 million social grants a month, or 26 million if the 9 million recipients of the special social relief of distress grant are included. Without these cash transfers, poverty and malnutrition in the country would be even higher. But they are inadequate, especially in a context of high and rising food prices.



    Read more:
    South Africa’s fight against extreme poverty needs a new strategy – model shows how social grants could work

    Firstly, the following changes should be made to social grant payments.

    • An immediate increase in the child support grant, followed by further increases. The goal should be to get this grant, which is currently below the food poverty line at R530 a month (US$28), to R1,634 (US$34). This is the minimum amount of money needed to meet basic needs, including nutritious food, clothing and shelter.

    • Pregnant women should receive a maternal support grant from 12 weeks of pregnancy, to reduce the risk of low birth weight.

    • Social grants should increase to match inflation every year.

    Secondly, the National School Nutrition Programme, which provides one nutritious meal to all learners in poorer primary and secondary schools, has limited impact because meals are provided only on weekdays during school terms.

    The programme should be boosted in the following ways:

    • The Department of Basic Education must deliver adequate nutrition to all children in early learning programmes, all year round.

    • Programmes for school-age children should be extended to ensure that they all receive at least one nutritious meal every day, including on weekends and school holidays.

    • Adequate funding should be given to school food gardens and nutrition education. Moreover, the national school nutrition programme starts too late to address under-5 stunting. It only begins when children enter grade R, aged 5.



    Read more:
    Malnutrition in South Africa: how one community wants resources to be spent

    Thirdly, interventions are needed in the food system.

    • Prices of essential food items should be regulated, to keep them affordable for low-income South Africans and to encourage shifts in consumption choices towards healthier, more nutritious diets.

    • Positive dietary choices can also be promoted through the use of subsidies, discounts or vouchers on “best buy” foods, either for all consumers or for shoppers receiving social grants. They could be given vouchers for nutritious food items along with their cash transfers. Food subsidies or vouchers must include foods that are protein-rich (meat, fish, eggs, dairy), since protein is highly inaccessible to the poor.



    Read more:
    How do people choose what food to buy? Answers depend on what you ask – so we built a research tool for African countries

    • Government must extend social security protections to seasonal and informal workers during periods of unemployment and underemployment. Seasonal hunger requires specific attention. Seasonal farm workers – most of whom are women – have low incomes, few savings, and limited access to unemployment insurance. They face food insecurity and hunger during the off-season winter months.

    • The government’s land redistribution programme should prioritise securing access to land for poor agrarian or peri-urban households, and providing support (water, inputs, extension advice) to farm that land. This would help vulnerable groups which derive most of their food from production.

    Agrarian households (smallholder farmers, farm workers, farm dwellers) are poorer and more food insecure, especially the female-headed households who survive below the food poverty line. When farm women with food gardens have direct access to fresh vegetables, their dietary diversity improves, and they earn income by selling produce to meet their basic needs.

    Lastly, steps must be take to reduce loss and waste in the food system.

    A third of food produced in South Africa, 10 million of 31 million tons, goes to waste each year. This is equivalent to 30 billion meals, in a context where an estimated 20 billion meals would be enough to end hunger. The government has committed to halving food waste by 2030, in its draft food losses and waste strategy of 2023. It must be finalised and operationalised.

    Next steps

    These interventions would cost money. And the government will argue that it is doing all it can to address hunger with the resources available.

    There are many options for raising additional resources to address the hunger crisis – as seen when the government found R500 billion (US$33 billion) to address the COVID-19 crisis in 2020.

    The government should also consider raising additional revenue by introducing a wealth tax targeting high-net-worth individuals. This could be used to increase social grants or subsidise nutritious foods.



    Read more:
    Urban food gardens produce more than vegetables, they create bonds for young Capetonians – study

    Finally, government needs to tackle hunger in a coordinated way. Several government departments, including agriculture, social development and health, address issues related to food security. However, no government ministry focuses specifically on hunger.

    The president should appoint a minister of food to address the hunger crisis along the lines of the special minister of electricity position established in 2023 to deal with the country’s energy supply problem.



    Read more:
    South Africa needs to change direction on maternal health to solve child malnutrition

    At the same time, a national food commission should be established, to monitor and coordinate all initiatives that focus on the goal of eradicating hunger.

    The government should be guided by the priorities set down by a new coalition – the Union Against Hunger – which is due to be launched on 26 February. The initiative is a coalition of civil society organisations and academics (the authors are among the founding members). It has compiled a list of 10 demands that reflect our analysis of the causes of hunger and recommended solutions. They include realising everyone’s constitutional right to food, halving child stunting by 2030 and making nutritious food accessible to all.

    Stephen Devereux receives funding from the National Research Foundation (NRF). He holds a Research Chair in Social Protection for Food Security, affiliated to the DSI–NRF Centre of Excellence in Food Security and the Institute for Social Development at the University of the Western Cape, South Africa.

    Busiso Moyo previously received funding from the Centre of Excellence in Food Security – UWC and the IDRC-Canada. He is affiliated with the Union Against Hunger (UAH) initiative.

    Mark Heywood previously headed Section 27, which receives funding and received funding for the Justice and Activism Hub. He is affiliated with the Union Against Hunger initiative.

    – ref. 15 million South Africans don’t get enough to eat every day: 4 solutions – https://theconversation.com/15-million-south-africans-dont-get-enough-to-eat-every-day-4-solutions-250700

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: the mud flies, but will the voters take much notice?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    In these scrappy days before the prime minister announces the election date, the mud and the personal insults are flying, despite the politicians knowing voters hate this sort of thing.

    On Wednesday morning TV, shadow finance minister Jane Hume, usually reasonably restrained with her language, called Employment Minister Murray Watt “king grub” of the “grubbiest people you will ever come across” – a reference to Labor’s pursuit of Peter Dutton’s past share trading. As Watt remarked, “That’s quite an accusation”.

    Hume was later on the warpath in a Senate estimates hearing, where Treasury Secretary Steven Kennedy fended off an opposition attack suggesting, in essence, that Treasurer Jim Chalmers had sought to make Treasury his political pawn.

    Dutton spent most of his Wednesday news conference pushing back on attacks on his integrity relating to his purchase of bank shares during the global financial crisis, and dealing with questions about his acquisition of an extensive property portfolio over decades.

    What the opposition dubs Labor’s “dirt unit” apparently drove the share story. The core of it is that Dutton bought bank shares just before the Rudd government announced its guarantee to ensure the financial security of the banks.

    Labor demanded to know whether Dutton had insider knowledge of the imminent guarantee through a Rudd government briefing of the opposition. Dutton, who declared the share purchase, says he had no information other than what was in the public domain.

    The story about Dutton’s property portfolio – which he has unloaded, no doubt as part of preparations in pursuit of the prime ministership – ran in Nine media. The report said

    Peter Dutton has made $30 million of property transactions across 26 pieces of real estate over 35 years, making him one of the country’s wealthiest-ever contenders for prime minister.

    Dutton was late with declaring on the parliamentary register some of the transactions.

    Nine says the story didn’t come from a Labor “dirt unit”, but it was grist for an embattled government.

    Dirt digging, mud throwing, and exploitation of the politics of envy are recurring features of election campaigns. Whether they’ll have much resonance this time is doubtful.

    The share story, going back the best part of a couple of decades, doesn’t sound like a smoking gun. We’ve heard about Dutton’s property buying before. We know he has plenty of money. Not as much, of course, as earlier PMs Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd.

    Dutton, working on the assumption these stories will be brief wonders, kept his cool.

    He hasn’t provided more details about the bank shares, relying on a general response that everything had been above board. On his property purchases, he made it clear he’s proud of his climb up the aspirational ladder since he was a “butcher’s boy” in those days when he had a job in a butcher’s shop.

    For Dutton, the mud is all in a day’s work. The attack on Kennedy is in a rather different category.

    In the run-up to an election, Treasury often finds itself in a awkward position, as a government seeks to use it, while an opposition objects. This time, Chalmers employed it to discredit the opposition’s policy to give a tax break to small businesses for taking their workers or clients to a meal.

    Treasury doesn’t cost opposition policies. So the government asked it to cost a theoretical policy that was similar to that of the Coalition. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Treasury came up with a much bigger cost than the opposition said was produced by the Parliamentary Budget Office.

    Kennedy insisted to the Senate hearing, “we do not act politically”.

    “I have behaved no differently with this government, nor have I observed the department’s behaving any differently,” he said. “I understand how the circumstances might lead you to question that, but all I can do is assure you that that has not been the case.”

    If Dutton became prime minister, would Kennedy’s position be at risk?

    It shouldn’t be. Kennedy, appointed by the Coalition, served the previous Liberal government very well and was a key figure in its ambitious economic response to the COVID pandemic. That response kept many people in jobs and the economy out of recession.

    While Kennedy was taking the flak in estimates, Chalmers had been in Washington making Australia’s case for an exemption of the Trump aluminium and steel tariffs.

    Chalmers’s visit was timely and carefully managed. The treasurer said before he left Australia he wouldn’t obtain an outcome on tariffs – it was about making Australia’s case. So when there was not an outcome, it was not a disappointment. “My task here in DC wasn’t to try and conclude that discussion, it was to try and inform it,” Chalmers told a news conference after his talks.

    Chalmers spent time with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett. He said the discussion was “wider-ranging than just steel and aluminium”. Bessent also was a speaker at the superannuation summit held at the Australian embassy (a coup for ambassador Kevin Rudd as well as Chalmers).

    In his 2023 Monthly essay, Chalmers argued for the super funds to invest more widely in Australia, notably in social housing.

    At the embassy conference, Chalmers was able to look to a much wider horizon for the funds.

    The current value of Australian super fund investments in the US is around $400 billion – due to reach $1 trillion over the next decade. So, Australia’s superannuation sector has the size, scale and presence to play a big role in driving new American industries and creating jobs.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from The Hill: the mud flies, but will the voters take much notice? – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-the-mud-flies-but-will-the-voters-take-much-notice-250897

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New report skewers Coalition’s contentious nuclear plan – and reignites Australia’s energy debate

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Quiggin, Professor, School of Economics, The University of Queensland

    Debate over the future of Australia’s energy system has erupted again after a federal parliamentary inquiry delivered a report into the deployment of nuclear power in Australia.

    The report casts doubt on the Coalition’s plan to build seven nuclear reactors on former coal sites across Australia should it win government. The reactors would be Commonwealth-owned and built.

    The report’s central conclusions – rejected by the Coalition – are relatively unsurprising. It found nuclear power would be far more expensive than the projected path of shifting to mostly renewable energy. And delivering nuclear generation before the mid-2040s will be extremely challenging.

    The report also reveals important weaknesses in the Coalition’s defence of its plan to deploy nuclear energy across Australia, if elected. In particular, the idea of cheap, factory-built nuclear reactors is very likely a mirage.

    A divisive inquiry

    In October last year, a House of Representatives select committee was formed to investigate the deployment of nuclear energy in Australia.

    Chaired by Labor MP Dan Repacholi, it has so far involved 19 public hearings and 858 written submissions from nuclear energy companies and experts, government agencies, scientists, Indigenous groups and others. Evidence I gave to a hearing was quoted in the interim report.

    The committee’s final report is due by April 30 this year. It tabled an interim report late on Tuesday, focused on the timeframes and costs involved. These issues dominated evidence presented to the inquiry.

    The findings of the interim report were endorsed by the committee’s Labor and independent members, but rejected by Coalition members.

    What did the report find on cost?

    The report said evidence presented so far showed the deployment of nuclear power generation in Australia “is currently not a viable investment of taxpayer money”.

    Nuclear energy was shown to be more expensive than the alternatives. These include a power grid consistent with current projections: one dominated by renewable energy and backed up by a combination of battery storage and a limited number of gas peaking plants.

    The Coalition has identified seven coal plant sites where it would build nuclear reactors. Some 11 gigawatts of coal capacity is produced on those sites. The committee heard replacing this capacity with nuclear power would meet around 15% of consumer needs in the National Electricity Market, and cost at least A$116 billion.

    In contrast, the Australian Energy Market Operator estimates the cost of meeting 100% of the National Electricity Market’s needs – that is, building all required transmission, generation, storage and firming capacity out to 2050 – is about $383 billion.

    What about the timing of nuclear?

    On the matter of when nuclear energy in Australia would be up and running, the committee found “significant challenges” in achieving this before the mid-2040s.

    This is consistent with findings from the CSIRO that nuclear power would take at least 15 years to deploy in Australia. But is it at odds with Coalition claims that the first two plants would be operating by 2035 and 2037 respectively.

    The mid-2040s is well beyond the lifetime of Australia’s existing coal-fired power stations. This raises questions about how the Coalition would ensure reliable electricity supplies after coal plants close. It also raises questions over how Australia would meet its global emissions-reduction obligations.

    Recent experience in other developed countries suggests the committee’s timeframe estimates are highly conservative.

    Take, for example, a 1.6GW reactor at Flamanville, France. The project, originally scheduled to be completed in 2012, was not connected to the grid until 2024. Costs blew out from an original estimate of A$5.5 billion to $22 billion.

    The builder, Électricité de France (EDF), was pushed to the edge of bankruptcy. The French government was forced to nationalise the company, reversing an earlier decision to privatise it.

    EDF is also building two reactors in the United Kingdom – a project known as Hinkley C. It has also suffered huge cost blowouts.

    Recent nuclear reactor projects in the United States have also fallen victim to cost overruns, sending the owner, Westinghouse, bankrupt.

    What does the Coalition say?

    The committee report included dissenting comments by Coalition members.

    As the Coalition rightly points out, global enthusiasm for nuclear power remains steady. The UK, France and the US all signed a declaration in 2023 at the global climate change conference, COP28, pledging to triple nuclear power by 2050.

    And in the UK and France, advanced plans are afoot to construct new nuclear reactors at existing sites.

    But even there, progress has been glacial. The UK’s Sizewell C project has been in the planning stage since at least 2012. The French projects were announced by President Emmanuel Macron in 2022. None of these projects have yet reached a final investment decision. Delays in Australia would certainly be much longer.

    The Coalition also draws a long bow in claiming Australia’s existing research reactor at Lucas Heights, in New South Wales, means we are “already a nuclear nation”.

    At least 50 countries, including most developed countries, have research reactors. But very few are contemplating starting a nuclear industry from scratch.

    At least one issue seems to have been resolved by the committee’s inquiry. Evidence it received almost unanimously dismissed the idea small modular reactors (SMRs) will arrive in time to be relevant to Australia’s energy transition – if they are ever developed.

    The Coalition’s dissenting comments did not attempt to rebut this evidence.

    Looking ahead

    Undoubtedly, existing nuclear power plants will play a continued role in the global energy transition.

    But starting a nuclear power industry from scratch in Australia is a nonsensical idea for many reasons – not least because it is too expensive and will take too long.

    In the context of the coming federal election, the nuclear policy is arguably a red herring – one designed to distract voters from a Coalition policy program that slows the transition to renewables and drags out the life of dirty and unreliable coal-fired power.

    The Conversation

    John Quiggin is a former member of the Climate Change Authority. His submission to the nuclear electricity generation inquiry was cited in the interim report

    – ref. New report skewers Coalition’s contentious nuclear plan – and reignites Australia’s energy debate – https://theconversation.com/new-report-skewers-coalitions-contentious-nuclear-plan-and-reignites-australias-energy-debate-250912

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Church hymns and social beers: how Australia is reviving the magic of singing together

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wendy Hargreaves, Senior Learning Advisor, University of Southern Queensland

    State Library of Victoria

    It was 2009. John Farnham walked on stage at the disaster relief concert for the most devastating bushfires in Australian history. He belted out You’re The Voice to 36,000 people at the Sydney Cricket Ground. Then, as he lowered his microphone, 36,000 voices belted it right back.

    Farnham knew the real star that day was not himself, but the thousands of everyday Australians singing in solidarity with their hurting nation.

    Singing together is electrifying, but can Australians tap into this magic without the tragedy?

    We’re all the voice.

    The science behind the magic

    Group singing has a proven ability to produce positive social bonding and help us tune in to others’ feelings.

    That sense of connecting and relating can boost our mental health; particularly crucial given many Australians seriously neglect self-care.

    After taking part in a year-long community singing program, Aboriginal and Torres Straight Islander adults reported reduced depression, increased resilience and a greater sense of social connection.

    Physiologically, research shows group singing can increase the hormone oxytocin which helps us bond with people and feel good. It can decrease cortisol levels to positively modulate our immune system. Making music together may also release endorphins that help our tolerance of pain.

    Rewinding on Australian singing

    Australia’s identity as a singing nation has never quite matched countries like Wales, “the land of song”. Centuries-old singing traditions are well-suited to huddling indoors in snowy northern hemisphere villages.

    Indeed, the tradition of singing Christmas carols was devised as a cure for the European winter blues. Our warmer Australian climate, in contrast, coaxes us outdoors for other activities in wide open spaces.

    Hymn singing at Melbourne’s Royal Exhibition Building in 1882.
    State Library of Victoria

    Australia’s choral tradition grew initially through church music; printed on tiny 12x7cm pages, books from the early 1800s provide a glimpse at the hymns church choirs and congregations once sang.

    Music researcher Dianne Gome reports these books were also used for official state occasions and in the home. They were so popular, Australians began to create their own versions.

    Singing was part of 19th century Australian life. At home, pianos were treasured for family singalongs and a sign of wealth and culture. Choirs blossomed, such as the The Brisbane Musical Union (now The Queensland Choir) which formed in 1872 with 112 members. Singing was valued, and local journals critiqued technique. Even The Wireless Weekly reported a radio poll “to decide the worst singer” in 1942.

    Work songs – morale boosters as workers labour through repetitive tasks – also showed our early singing culture. One Queensland man recently described life as a 14-year-old in a 1930s tram track foundry:

    Every night I came home exhausted. It was hard work, but we used to sing […] How many people sing at their work today?

    Alongside its presence in churches, work places and social gatherings, singing became a pillar of Australian education.

    A book on education history in Victoria reports singing was introduced in the 1850s for “harmonising and refining the mind” and as a “most favourable influence […] on the moral associations of the goldfields”.

    While some traditions in schools continue today, claims of a crowded curriculum and de-valuing of the arts have pushed school singing from essential to optional.

    There also exists a social pressure on Australian boys to play sport rather than sing in choirs.

    Today’s Aussie group singing style

    A fair dinkum Aussie singing style is well established in sporting circles.

    The 1978 World Cricket Series jingle C’mon Aussie C’mon was so simple and catchy its tune still rings through stadiums today. Likewise, Mike Brady’s Up There Cazaly – inspired by the 1910s footballer whose name was used in World War II battle cries – has been a favourite crowd singalong at AFL Grand Finals for decades.

    Footy club theme songs aside, Brisbane Lions fans will be particularly familiar with a modern opportunity for sports singing: goal songs. After every goal at a Lions’ home game, a snippet from a player-chosen track blares across the stands.

    Not all of these song selections make successful singalongs, but Charlie Cameron’s choice of Take Me Home Country Roads is a clear favourite. Tellingly, the crowd keeps singing after the music stops.

    At the other end of the spectrum of group size and vocal expertise is the small Australian-bred a capella group The Idea of North. Their expert musical arrangements and blended sound perfectly encapsulates collaborative singing with unity, harmony and joy.

    For a quirky Australian choral option, a group of men from Mullumbimby formed the “fake” Russian choir, Dustyesky (a wordplay on the famous Russian writer Dostoevsky). They don’t speak the language, yet their energy and passion for singing made them a hit in Russia and brought about an invitation to sing in Moscow.

    With millions of internet views, another highly successful Australian response to group singing came from Astrid Jorgensen, creator of Pub Choir. With laughter and a drink, members of the public meet at a licensed venue to learn a song in three-part harmony.

    Jorgensen’s tailored musical arrangements of popular songs suit untrained singers, don’t require music reading skills and make singing in harmony with complete strangers easy and fun. Jorgensen found the key to motivating Aussies to sing together is crowds, humour and a social beer.

    Wendy Hargreaves does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Church hymns and social beers: how Australia is reviving the magic of singing together – https://theconversation.com/church-hymns-and-social-beers-how-australia-is-reviving-the-magic-of-singing-together-250254

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Tom Rogers calls for national digital literacy campaign and more civics teaching

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    We see the political parties’ frantic election campaigns, but behind the scenes the Australian Electoral Commisison is working just as hard.

    An often overlooked part of Australia’s democracy, the AEC is vital in ensuring our elections are both efficient and fair, a task full of challenges.

    We’re joined today by Tom Rogers, recently retired as Electoral Commissioner. As commissioner, Rogers oversaw three federal elections and the Voice referendum. He is now a member of the advisory board of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance and provides his expertise on elections globally.

    Rogers describes running a modern Australian election as

    the largest peacetime logistic exercise in the life of Australia […] it’s so complex administratively to run these events.

    It’s a bit like setting up a fortune 500 company in four weeks, running it, then dismantling it a couple of weeks after the event. It is just phenomenally complex. And the amazing thing is that because we’ve got good systems in place, it works pretty well.

    The agency goes from, I’ll use very rough figures here, about a thousand people all over Australia during the non-electoral period up to about 105,000 people during that very short period.

    There are a lot of calls for truth in advertising laws and some calls for it to be managed by the AEC. Rogers insists the AEC should not be involved,

    I was a firm believer that that would be very inappropriate for the AEC. It’s one of those rare things where we were very, very proactive in talking to people about that. And one of the reasons is because I think it would ruin the AEC’s reputation for neutrality. It’s as simple as that.

    It will impact on the AEC’s level of trust with the community.[…] given trust is so important, that people trust electoral outcomes, I think it’s incredibly dangerous.

    While not wanting to be involved with truth in advertising, Rogers does see the importance in the AEC countering misinformation on Australia’s electoral process,

    We’ve established a ‘defending democracy unit’. We ran a national campaign called Stop and Consider to get people to think about the source of information.

    But I think the bit that we can do and that’s still missing is we really need a national digital literacy campaign for our citizens. When you correct disinformation about electoral matters, there’s a whole body of research that shows that it’s kind of effective. What is more effective rather than debunking is ‘prebunking’ and what is more effective again, is giving citizens the skills they need to make up their own mind about the accuracy of information.

    The Stop and Consider campaign, I might be wrong, but is still the only national campaign focussed on giving citizens skills. We need to run something like that all the time. I think there’s a real need for this in the modern era and that’s what we should be doing.

    Rogers also highlights the importance of civics education

    It’s critical. The AEC is already doing good work in this space. Up until I left at the end of last year, generally speaking the AEC was getting about 100,000 kids a year through the Electoral Education Centre in Canberra, which is excellent. They are in the process of digitising much of the materials so that that could be spread to schools that are unable to visit Canberra.

    I do think we need to do more.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Tom Rogers calls for national digital literacy campaign and more civics teaching – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-tom-rogers-calls-for-national-digital-literacy-campaign-and-more-civics-teaching-250901

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Your super fund is invested in private markets. What are they and why has ASIC raised concerns?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Melatos, Associate Professor of Economics, University of Sydney

    If you are a member of a super fund, some of your long-term savings are probably invested in private markets.

    Public markets are familiar to most of us – the stock market and government and corporate bond markets. Private markets include unlisted assets such as companies owned by private equity firms, infrastructure investments and private credit markets.

    Corporate watchdog the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), has today released a discussion paper that emphasises the growth in private capital, seemingly at the expense of public markets. While the number of listed companies and the value of initial public offerings has shrunk, private equity and infrastructure funds have boomed.

    Should we be worried about this?

    Public vs private markets

    Public markets tend to be transparent, tightly regulated and liquid. Companies listed on the stock exchange publish their financial accounts, hold annual general meetings and their shares can be readily traded.

    In contrast, private markets are lightly regulated. Private capital investments are more opaque, less liquid and, hence, more risky. But they can deliver much higher returns (or losses).

    Often, obtaining capital from private sources makes sense. For example, entrepreneurs whose startup firms are short of revenue, profit and tangible assets are unlikely to be able to raise capital in public markets, or from banks. Instead, they turn to private equity firms for funding.

    What are the concerns?

    In its report, ASIC raises several concerns:

    • the shrinking of Australia’s public equity markets might hurt the economy

    • the rise of private markets may create new or amplified risks

    • the lack of transparency of private markets poses a challenge for investors and regulators.

    Public markets play an important role connecting investors with companies seeking capital. The shrinking of public markets, therefore, has important economic implications. Will private markets be able to pick up the slack?

    Notwithstanding the growth in private capital markets, they are still small compared to their public counterparts. The total capitalisation of the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) is $3 trillion. Total private capital funds under management are only $150 billion.

    The lack of disclosures in private capital markets might also create more and different risks for financial markets and the economy; risks that regulators may not understand, nor know how to anticipate or effectively mitigate.

    The role of Australian super funds

    ASIC is concerned about the implications for the superannuation industry of the growth of private capital markets and decline in public markets.

    Australia’s superannuation assets now total $4.1 trillion, greater than the value of Australia’s GDP and more than the total value of all companies listed on the ASX. Anything that alters the playing field for Australian super has the potential to create outsized risk (or opportunity) for the Australian economy.

    The ASIC report highlights the growing involvement of Australia’s superannuation funds in private markets. Australia’s two largest super funds, Australian Super and Australian Retirement Trust, each have about 20% of their total funds invested in private markets.

    The fact is that Australia’s superannuation sector has outgrown Australian public markets. They cannot trade shares on the ASX without moving share prices significantly to their detriment. On the other hand, having super funds, which are highly regulated to protect member savings, investing in unregulated private capital markets is jarring, if not potentially risky.

    Having said this, the size of Australia’s super funds means they can set the terms and price at which they invest. This power is most valuable in private deals; less so in public markets where a company’s stock price and its financial accounts are public knowledge.

    Increasingly, super funds directly invest in infrastructure projects such as ports and airports rather than buy shares in listed infrastructure firms.

    What’s behind the shift in markets?

    The ASIC report points the finger at the usual culprits for the shift from public to private capital markets, including the regulatory burden on public companies and the rise of technology companies that prefer to tap private capital.

    However, another problem is bedevilling policymakers everywhere: too much capital is chasing too few profitable investment opportunities. Companies have lots of cash on their books and nothing to spend it on.

    Increasingly, such companies have resorted to share buybacks (reducing the number of their shares on issue) to reward investors in a tax-effective way. A lot of the shrinkage in public equity is due to share buybacks that in 2022 alone totalled US$1.3 trillion.

    Why does all this matter?

    The ASIC report is notable for what it does not say; nothing, for example, on its own chequered history of investigative and enforcement action.

    The growing importance of opaque private markets matters more if regulators are asleep at the wheel. ASIC’s tendency for weak oversight and sclerotic enforcement can hardly have raised investor confidence in Australia’s public capital markets.

    Its oversight of initial public offerings (IPOs) has also been questionable over a long period. How can ASIC be expected to adequately manage complex private capital market risks given its woeful performance managing simpler public market risks?

    The apparent decline of public markets has been spooking even sophisticated private financial market players – including, most notably, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan. If Dimon is concerned, then ASIC – and all of us – should probably also be concerned.

    Mark Melatos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Your super fund is invested in private markets. What are they and why has ASIC raised concerns? – https://theconversation.com/your-super-fund-is-invested-in-private-markets-what-are-they-and-why-has-asic-raised-concerns-250788

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: J’accuse!… the Jew who accuses his fellow Jews of being antisemites

    A rally on the steps of the Victorian Parliament under the banner of Jews for a Free Palestine was arranged for Sunday, February 9. At 11:11pm on the eve of that rally, Mark Leibler —a  lawyer who claims to have a high profile and speak on behalf of Jews by the totally unelected organisation AIJAC — put out a tweet on X (and paid for an advertisement of the same posting) as follows:

    COMMENTARY: By Jeffrey Loewenstein

    As someone Jewish, the son of Holocaust survivors and members of whose family were murdered by the Nazis, it is hard to know whether to characterise Mark Leibler’s tweet as offensive, appalling, contemptuous, insulting or a disgusting, shameful and grievous introduction of the Holocaust, and those who were murdered by the Nazis, into his tweet — or all of the foregoing!

    Leibler’s tweet is most likely a breach of recently passed legislation in Australia, both federally and in various state Parliaments, making hateful words and actions, and doxxing, criminal offences. It will be “interesting” to see how the police deal with the complaint taken up with the police alleging Leibler’s breach of the legislation.

    In the end, Leibler’s attempted intimidation of those who might have been thinking of going to the rally failed — miserably!

    There are many Jews who abhor what Israel is doing in Gaza (and the West Bank) but feel intimidated by the Leiblers of this world who accuse them of being antisemitic for speaking out against Israel’s actions and not those rusted-on 100 percent supporters of Israel who blindly and uncritically support whatever Israel does, however egregious.

    Leibler, and others like him, who label Jews as antisemites because they dare speak out about Israel’s actions, certainly need to be called out.

    As a lawyer, Leibler knows that actions have consequences. A group of concerned Jews (this writer included) are in the process of lodging a complaint about Leibler’s tweet with the Commonwealth Human Rights Commission.

    Separately from that, this week will see full-page adverts in both the Sydney Morning Herald and The Age — signed by hundreds of Jews — bearing the heading:

    “Australia must reject Trump’s call for the removal of Palestinians from Gaza. Jewish Australians say NO to ethnic cleansing.”

    Jeffrey Loewenstein, LLB, was a member of the Victorian Bar and a one-time chair of the Anti-Defamation Commission and member of the Jewish Community Council of Victoria. This article was first published by Pearls & Irritations public policy journal and is republished here with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why do we fall for wellness scams? Our cultural biases and myths are often to blame

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jesse Ruse, Clinical Psychologist, PhD Candidate, University of Sydney

    Netflix

    Netflix’s Apple Cider Vinegar has renewed interest in Belle Gibson’s infamous wellness scam, reminding us how vulnerable we can be to deception. While Gibson’s scheme eventually collapsed, her story highlights how fraudsters can exploit our psychological and cultural biases to lure us into wellness traps.

    Part of our culture includes the shared mythologies and symbols that help us make sense of the world. These stories and symbols seem to make our lives more “efficient” by surpassing tedious fact-checking. Over time, these cultural codes become embedded into our psychologies, operating as background biases that shape our decision-making.

    By becoming aware of these biases, we can develop a more critical approach to evaluating information presented to us. In doing so, we can protect ourselves from the Belle Gibsons of the world.

    A desire for inner bodily purity

    One pervasive wellness mythology suggests health can be found in the “pure” state of the body, and that illness occurs when outside contaminants pollute the body.

    As anthropologist Mary Douglas notes, we symbolically equate the “inner” with purity and the “outer” with pollution. This leads to efforts to protect ourselves from outside threats. We are disgusted by the idea of the harmful “outside” getting inside and violating the body’s inner sanctum.

    Gibson’s cookbook and app promoted a diet that claimed inner health problems (such as cancer) are the result of outside contamination, in this case by “bad” foods.

    This symbolism also appears in various diets that advocate for removing certain types of food, such as sugar or gluten, to achieve a state of inner sanctity and, therefore, health.

    Similarly, various “clean eating” diets will specifically link certain foods to cleanliness and others to dirtiness. In their most extreme form, these diets constitute orthorexia, a clinical condition defined by an “obsession” with healthy eating.

    The allure of ‘ancient wisdom’

    Each day we face an overwhelming array of choices, from the products we use to how we construct our identities. As people living in modern, affluent societies we are, as philosopher Jean-Paul Sartre put it, “condemned to be free”.

    In this context of choice overload and decision fatigue, ancient wisdom offers a seductive simplicity: a return to simpler times.

    In 1953, psychoanalyst Jacques Lacan observed that we possess a nostalgia for an idealised golden age (regardless of whether it ever truly existed). We yearn for a mythical era of simplicity, safety and happiness. This psychological bias for the past manifests as a deep reverence for “ancient wisdom”, seemingly passed down through generations and untainted by modern influence.

    This preference can be seen in our instinctive trust in grandparents’ remedies and traditional healing practices, even when scientific evidence doesn’t always support them. Gibson and others co-opt this nostalgia by selling us products that connect us to the past.

    Suspicion of industrial-scale production

    Our minds are often suspicious of large-scale and complex manufacturing processes, and will often devalue industrially produced products.

    This scepticism of scale stems from negative associations with factory work, questionable standards and a history of multinational corporations prioritising profit over people. As a public, we are growing understandably weary of the multinational companies whose influence we can’t seem to escape. Politicians often further this narrative by claiming that globalisation – replacing local cottage industries with industrialised mega-companies – screws the little guys like you and me.

    Gibson capitalised on a growing suspicion of the industrial-scale pharmaceutical industry to promote her bespoke “homegrown” wellness products. Locally-made goods often have increased value simply because they are made on a smaller scale, regardless of their quality or materials.

    Historically, various groups including the Luddites and the hippie movement have rejected the industrial push. More recently, we saw these dynamics play out in COVID-19 vaccine denial, which partially stems from suspicions of the pharmaceutical companies.

    A preference for natural over artificial

    Culturally, the concept of the “natural” holds powerful meaning, positioning things found in nature as inherently superior to those manufactured by humans (deemed “artificial”).

    This natural/artificial dichotomy establishes a symbolic framework in which natural remedies, raw foods and authenticity represent the “proper” order of things – how life should be. The “appeal to nature” bias persists because it resonates with our collective intuition that modern life has somehow disconnected us from important truths or healthier ways of living.

    Research has demonstrated we tend to have a positive association with the concept of the “natural”, which we understand as objects not altered by human intervention. This preference isn’t merely aesthetic. It also reflects our belief in a moral order.

    Gibson famously claimed alternative therapies – most notably apple cider vinegar – helped treat her alleged cancer. Similar patterns appear throughout the wellness industry, where influencers and companies market products by emphasising their natural origins and minimal processing.

    These claims leverage our psychological bias toward natural remedies, even when the scientific evidence for their efficacy is lacking.

    Jesse Ruse does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why do we fall for wellness scams? Our cultural biases and myths are often to blame – https://theconversation.com/why-do-we-fall-for-wellness-scams-our-cultural-biases-and-myths-are-often-to-blame-250790

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ignore the ‘ivory tower’ clichés – universities are the innovation partners more Kiwi businesses need

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Omid Aliasghar, Senior Lecturer, Management and International Business, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    NicoElNino/Shutterstock

    When it comes to turning research into real-world success, New Zealand has a problem.

    Despite the country’s NZ$3.7 billion research and development spending in 2023 – a 17% jump from the previous year — too many New Zealand businesses fail to commercialise innovation.

    According to the World Intellectual Property Organization, New Zealand ranks 21st for innovation inputs. This means we’re good at investing in research and development. But we rank 45th in knowledge outputs and 78th in industry diversification. Essentially, we’re spending more but getting less.

    So, what’s holding the country back? In a lot of cases, it can boil down to a lack of collaboration with universities.

    Universities are typically focused on generating novel or new-to-the world knowledge, with researchers, cutting-edge technology and deep industry connections.

    Working with universities can connect businesses to researchers, government agencies, private industry and global networks. Collaboration can also offer businesses credibility. It signals to investors, partners and customers that they are serious about innovation.

    Yet many businesses underestimate their value. They assume collaboration is slow, academic or bureaucratic.

    Our study – based on a digital survey of 541 firms across a wide range of industries and regions in New Zealand – looked at whether collaborating with universities could help businesses to bring ideas to market, sell intellectual property and develop technology.

    We also considered whether there was a difference in working with international universities versus collaborating with local institutions. While identifying details of the individual businesses were kept confidential, here is what we learned.

    The case for foreign university partnerships

    Our research found partnering with foreign universities allowed New Zealand businesses to tap into global expertise and advanced research. It also provided access to diverse knowledge networks, where businesses could learn from various real-world applications of scientific knowledge.

    For example, a New Zealand business specialising in artificial intelligence (AI) can gain game-changing insights by collaborating with top universities in the United States.

    The partnerships can provide access to leading AI models, advanced algorithms, and global industry connections. These partnerships can enable the business to stay ahead in an increasingly competitive market.

    Additionally, many universities had well-established technology transfer offices. These had experience in helping businesses commercialise research.

    In short, foreign university collaborations opened doors to the world’s best knowledge and technology – critical for firms operating in fast-moving industries.

    New Zealand technology businesses have benefited from partnering with universities based in the United States on artificial intelligence projects.
    Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock

    The strength of local university collaborations

    We also found local university collaborations had their own advantages, including
    an understanding of New Zealand’s specific challenges, from climate change impact on agriculture to AI adoption in small businesses.

    This contextual knowledge made their expertise highly relevant for firms aiming to commercialise innovation within New Zealand’s unique market conditions.

    Working with local universities also allowed businesses to build strong, personal relationships with researchers, fostering faster and more effective knowledge exchange.

    Unlike foreign partnerships, where interactions may be limited to emails and virtual meetings, local collaborations allowed for regular in-person brainstorming, experimentation and problem solving.

    Finally, collaborating with New Zealand’s universities gave businesses access to top local talent, helping them recruit skilled graduates familiar with the domestic market and its needs.

    A balanced approach

    Investing in research and development alone won’t drive innovation for businesses. Without strategic collaboration, firms risk wasting resources on ideas that never reach the market.

    Businesses should take a balanced approach. Foreign university collaborations can offer groundbreaking advances, cutting-edge knowledge and global networks. At the same time, local university collaborations offer accessible knowledge, local expertise and stronger working relationships.

    By embracing these partnerships, New Zealand businesses can turn research into commercial success, drive national economic growth, and position themselves as global innovation leaders. The question is no longer if firms should collaborate with universities – it’s how quickly they can start.

    This research was completed with Annique Un (Northeastern University), Kazuhiro Asakawa (Keio University), Jarrod Haar (Massey University) and Sihong Wu (University of Auckland).

    Omid Aliasghar receives funding support for this research provided by Building New Zealand’s Innovation Capacity Spearhead within the Science for Technological Innovation National Science Challenge.

    – ref. Ignore the ‘ivory tower’ clichés – universities are the innovation partners more Kiwi businesses need – https://theconversation.com/ignore-the-ivory-tower-cliches-universities-are-the-innovation-partners-more-kiwi-businesses-need-249129

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Chinese dating simulator Love and Deepspace now has a period tracker – it signals a shift in mobile gaming

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephanie Harkin, Lecturer, Games, School of Design, RMIT University

    Papergames

    24/7 companionship. Spend time with him whenever you want.

    This is the promise made by Love and Deepspace, a mobile romance game by the Chinese company Papergames.

    Some think video games are all guns and cars, but romance games or “dating simulators” are immensely popular, especially among young women.

    Love and Deepspace reached 50 million users across more than 170 countries and regions in January. Despite their popularity, dating sims, as they are known for short, usually fly under the radar in discussions about games.

    Meanwhile, a recent major update for Love and Deepspace has furrowed some brows by introducing an unusual new feature: a period tracker.

    Need help keeping track of tasks?

    Dating sims offer a fantasy of romantic, intimate companionship. Otome games (from the word “maiden” in Japanese) are a sub-genre of dating sims that are catered to women. They offer a suite of boyfriends to choose from – each attentive, caring and, of course, incredibly handsome.

    Ideal in every way except being fictional.

    Love and Deepspace is a science-fiction otome game that stands out with its unusual blend of combat, magic, dating and gacha (meaning random rewards) microtransactions – which are controversial for their parallels to gambling.

    Its latest update introduced a Remind Me feature, where players can ask their virtual boyfriends to remind them of daily tasks and special events, as well as their upcoming period. Players input information about their menstrual cycle and the game then generates its own predictive calendar and notifications.

    The player’s in-game boyfriend will offer to pick up some sanitary products or even reach towards the screen and provide an imaginary abdomen massage.

    The millions of users drawn to a fantasy about considerate men says a lot about the frustrations women have with modern dating and dating apps.

    Women are conscious of the conservative gender roles within otome games, but at the same time find pleasure in their focus on the female gaze and ability to explore their sexual desire privately.

    In China, where otome games are especially popular, censorship of explicit content for women has intensified. These games are able to convey sexually suggestive themes that are subtle enough to elude censorship.

    Otome games are not new

    Otome games have been around for three decades.

    Angelique, a game made by an all-women team in 1994, is considered to be the first. It helped set the stage for other boyfriend fantasy media for women as seen in the rising popularity of “boyfriend ASMR” on audio and video platforms today. These are designed to directly address the listener in both sensual and everyday scenarios.

    Video games have changed a lot since then, especially as mobile devices have evolved to be more intimate, accompanying us everywhere.

    Love and Deepspace is introducing more features including “Quality Time”, which rewards players for working or studying with the game open. The rewards come in the form of an animated man sighing and whispering into the player’s headphones.

    ‘Feel his deepening breath, rising heartbeat, and the trickle of sweat. He’s working out together with you!’
    Love and Deepspace/X

    Periods and privacy

    Love and Deepspace’s period reminders mirror existing period tracker apps, though they do not incorporate the usual fertility date predictions or ability to log symptoms and sexual activity. That’s probably a good thing.

    Period tracker apps have faced scrutiny for mishandling users’ data. Popular period tracker app Flo has faced a lawsuit in the British Columbia Supreme Court in Canada for sharing personal data to third-party tech firms, including Facebook and Google, which use the data for targeted advertising.

    Meanwhile, the overturning of Roe v. Wade in the United States has threatened many people’s bodily autonomy and made them concerned about the legal risks of sharing personal biological information.

    Love and Deepspace’s privacy policy states any menstruation data is only used for the prediction and reminder features, and that it will not be shared with any third parties without the player’s consent.

    The banning of the Chinese-owned platform TikTok in the US was driven by fears of foreign influence and data privacy. Yet our privacy may not be safer with a US company than a Chinese one.

    US-owned companies have been just as liable to sell sensitive information to third parties, such as location data to abortion clinics and gay clubs.

    Australia’s Privacy Act does not just apply to Australian companies. Papergames could be sanctioned if it breaches its privacy policy.

    That said, it is unlikely many users will be familiar with the policy or read future changes made to it. It is best to always practise caution when entering any kind of personal information in platforms, apps or video games.

    A potential shift

    Period tracking is not a core component in the game. But this new feature signals a potential shift towards more mobile games integrating popular app functions, such as health data.

    Instead of a casual time-filler, mobile games like Love and Deepspace are competing for players’ attention over other apps – which is concerning given its controversial gacha random rewards.

    It’s also possible the game’s designers are picking up on a widespread desire for men to care more about their partner’s periods.

    Stephanie Harkin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Chinese dating simulator Love and Deepspace now has a period tracker – it signals a shift in mobile gaming – https://theconversation.com/chinese-dating-simulator-love-and-deepspace-now-has-a-period-tracker-it-signals-a-shift-in-mobile-gaming-250497

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK must make big changes to its diets, farming and land use to hit net zero – official climate advisers

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Neil Ward, Professor of Rural and Regional Development at the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia

    William Edge / shutterstock

    If the UK is to achieve net zero emissions by 2050, over one-third of its sheep and cows will have to go, with their fields being replaced by huge new areas of woodland. That’s one conclusion of the latest report by the the Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK government’s independent advisor on climate change.

    The CCC is tasked with outlining how much greenhouse gas the UK can emit if it is to achieve its climate targets – its “carbon budget”. The committee also recommends how the country might reduce its emissions to get within that budget. It sets future budgets every five years or so. This latest report, the seventh carbon budget, looks at emissions in the period 2038 to 2043. It updates the sixth carbon budget produced in 2020.

    The UK has almost halved its greenhouse gas emissions since 1990, but that was the easy half. Most dirty industries are long gone, for instance, and coal power plants have been replaced with gas and renewable energy.

    Next, the country will be grappling with the most challenging sectors including the focus of my academic research: agriculture and land use. This challenge will be worsened by the impacts of climate change and geopolitical uncertainties that raise doubts about the UK’s food security.

    Currently, agriculture makes up about 11% of UK emissions, but this proportion will rise considerably over the next 15 years as other sectors decarbonise further. Cattle and sheep contribute most of these emissions, and the latest carbon budget suggests their numbers will have to be reduced by 22% by 2035 and by over 38% by 2050.

    This is principally to release land to plant tens of thousands of hectares of new woodland each year (60,000 hectares a year by 2040) and to grow energy crops (38,000 hectares a year by 2040). It will also mean fewer emissions from the animals themselves and from growing animal feed.

    The UK needs a lot more of this.
    Callums Trees / shutterstock

    Less meat and dairy

    The latest carbon budget suggests that dietary change is key to this anticipated change in farming and land use. While British people won’t need to give up meat entirely, they will need to reduce consumption of meat and dairy products by around 35% by 2050 compared to 2019 levels.

    Meat and dairy consumption are already falling, however, and the trend has accelerated since 2020. To meet the budget, the decline would need to continue but more rapidly than the long-term trend.

    The CCC is in the business of advising on what government should do to address climate change, not in the business of telling people what to eat. It hopes that food labels with additional information about emissions will help people make better choices for themselves.

    Emphasising non-meat options and altering the layout of supermarkets may also help change the “choice environment” and so change consumption practices. Nevertheless, before long, the UK and devolved governments will have to grasp the nettle of diet change, land use and livestock. There have already been successful legal challenges for having inadequate plans in this area.

    It helps that diets good for the planet are also good for people’s health. In October 2024, the House of Lords food, diet and obesity committee estimated diet-related ill health and obesity cost £98 billion a year. This is a significant drag on productivity and places acute pressures on the NHS.

    Plant-based foods are better for food security

    Energy security is currently prompting much thought and action, but food security has not. Dietary change can also help improve the UK’s food security, however, since meat and dairy take up more land per calorie than healthier alternatives. A large-scale shift in diet and land use could render the UK more resilient to future wars, pandemics or anything else that causes shocks to food prices and supplies.

    For farmers and landowners there has been increasing interest in greener approaches to production, sometimes called regenerative farming. Some within, or clustered around, farming will protest about the scale of reduction in animal numbers implied by net zero.

    Faced with the basic maths, a marked reduction looks unavoidable. The sooner the conversation can shift from whether change is needed to how it might best be fairly and equitably pursued, the better.

    This carbon budget brings positive opportunities for nature restoration, diversifying rural economies and improving the appearance and ecology of the countryside. But for net emissions to come down enough, the amount of wooded land will need to increase from 13% to 19% by 2050 – that’s over a million extra hectares, or roughly equivalent to Cornwall, Devon and Dorset combined.

    These are very stretching targets, and tree planting over the past few years has fallen far short of the rates required. Because afforestation is such an important factor in the carbon budget, if the UK fails to meet its targets, the dietary changes may need to be even greater.

    Heightened international instability threatening UK food security could mean the same. Indeed, some food, health and environmental organisations will point to the seventh carbon budget and say the CCC has not gone far enough.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Neil Ward receives funding from UKRI in his role as Co-lead of the AFN (AgriFood4NetZero) Network+.. He is a member of the Labour Party and the National Trust.

    – ref. The UK must make big changes to its diets, farming and land use to hit net zero – official climate advisers – https://theconversation.com/the-uk-must-make-big-changes-to-its-diets-farming-and-land-use-to-hit-net-zero-official-climate-advisers-250158

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Nose-to-tail mining: how making sand from ore could solve a looming crisis

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Franks, Professor and Director – Global Centre for Mineral Security, The University of Queensland

    Thanagornsoisep/Shutterstock

    Every year, the world consumes around 50 billion tonnes of sand, gravel and crushed stone. The astonishing scale of this demand is hard to comprehend – 12.5 million Olympic sized swimming pools per year – making it the most-used solid material by humans.

    Most of us don’t see the sand and gravel all around us. It’s hidden in concrete footpaths and buildings, the glass in our windows and in the microchips that drive our technology.

    Demand is set to increase further – even as the extraction of sand and gravel from rivers, lakes, beaches and oceans is triggering an environmental crisis.

    Sand does renew naturally, but in many regions, natural sand supplies are being depleted far faster than they can be replenished. Desert sand often has grains too round for use in construction and deserts are usually far from cities, while sand alternatives made by crushing rock are energy- and emissions-intensive.

    But there’s a major opportunity here, as we outline in our new research. Every year, the mining industry crushes and discards billions of tonnes of the same minerals as waste during the process of mining metals. By volume, mining waste is the single largest source of waste we make.

    There’s nothing magical about sand. It’s made up of particles of weathered rock. Gravel is larger particles. Our research has found companies mining metals can get more out of their ores, by processing the ore to produce sand as well.

    This would solve two problems at once: how to avoid mining waste and how to tackle the sand crisis. We dub this “nose-to-tail” mining, following the trend in gastronomy to use every part of an animal.

    Concrete is everywhere – but it requires a great deal of sand and gravel.
    MVolodymyr/Shutterstock

    The failings of tailings

    The metal sulphides, oxides and carbonates which can be turned into iron, copper and other metals are only a small fraction of the huge volumes of ore which have to be processed. Every year, the world produces about 13 billion tonnes of tailings – the ground-up rock left over after valuable metals are extracted – and another 72 billion tonnes of waste rock, which has been blasted but not ground up.

    For decades, scientists have dreamed of using tailings as a substitute for natural sand. Tailings are often rich in silicates, the principal component of sand.

    But to date, the reality has been disappointing. More than 18,000 research papers have been published on the topic in the last 25 years. But only a handful of mines have found ways to repurpose and sell tailings.

    Why? First, tailings rarely meet the strict specifications required for construction materials, such as the size of the particles, the mineral composition and the durability.

    Second, they come with a stigma. Tailings often contain hazardous substances liberated during mining. This makes governments and consumers understandably cautious about using mining waste in homes and our built environment.

    Neither of these problems is insurmountable. In our research, we propose a new solution: manufacture sand directly from ore.

    Converting rock into metal is a complex, multi-step process which differs by type of metal and by type of ore. After crushing, the minerals in the ore are typically separated using flotation, where the metal-containing sulphide minerals attach to tiny bubbles that float up through the slurry of rock and water.

    At this stage, leftover ore is normally separated out to be disposed of as waste. But if we continue to process the ore, such as by spinning it in a cyclone, impurities can be removed and the right particle size and shape can be achieved to meet the specifications for sand.

    We have dubbed this “ore-sand”, to distinguish it from tailings. It’s not made from waste tailings – it’s a deliberate product of the ore.

    Turning ore into metal requires intensive crushing and grinding. These methods could also make sand.
    Aussie Family Living/Shutterstock

    More from ore

    This isn’t just theory. At the iron ore mine Brucutu in Brazil, the mining company Vale is already producing one million tonnes of ore-sand annually. The sand is used in road construction, brickmaking and concrete.

    The move came from tragedy. In 2015 and 2019, the dams constructed to store tailings at two of Vale’s iron ore mines collapsed, triggering deadly mudflows. Hundreds of people died – many of them company employees – and the environmental consequences are ongoing.

    In response, the company funded researchers (such as our group) to find ways to reduce reliance on tailings dams in favour of better alternatives.

    Following our work with Vale we investigated the possibility of making ore-sand from other types of mineral ores, such as copper and gold. We have run successful trials at Newmont’s Cadia copper-gold mine in Australia. Here, using innovative methods we have produced a coarser ore-sand which doesn’t require as much blending with other sand.

    Ore-sand processing makes the most sense for mines located close to cities. This is for two reasons: to avoid the risk of tailings dams to people living nearby, and to reduce the transport costs of moving sand long distances.

    Our earlier research showed almost half the world’s sand consumption happens within 100 kilometres of a mine which could produce ore-sand as well as metals. Since metal mining already requires intensive crushing and grinding, we found ore-sand can be produced with lower energy consumption and carbon emissions than the extraction of conventional sands.

    The challenge of scale

    For any new idea or industry, the hardest part is to go from early trials to widespread adoption. It won’t be easy to make ore-sand a reality.

    Inertia is one reason. Mining companies have well-established processes. It takes time and work to introduce new methods.

    Industry buy-in and collaboration, supportive government policies and market acceptance will be needed. Major sand buyers such as the construction industry need to be able to test and trust the product.

    The upside is real, though. Ore-sand offers us a rare chance to tackle two hard environmental problems at once, by slashing the staggering volume of mining waste and reducing the need for potentially dangerous tailings dams, and offering a better alternative to destructive sand extraction.

    Daniel Franks would like to acknowledge funding and collaboration support from the Queensland Government, Australian Economic Accelerator, Resources Technology and Critical Minerals Trailblazer, Newcrest Mining, Newmont, Vale, The University of Geneva, The University of Exeter, The Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, and The University of Queensland. Daniel Franks is the recipient of an Australian Research Council Future Fellowship (FT240100383) funded by the Australian Government.

    – ref. Nose-to-tail mining: how making sand from ore could solve a looming crisis – https://theconversation.com/nose-to-tail-mining-how-making-sand-from-ore-could-solve-a-looming-crisis-250284

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tibet is one of the most linguistically diverse places in the world. This is in danger of extinction

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gerald Roche, Lecturer in Linguistics, La Trobe University

    Three days after he was released from prison in December, a Tibetan village leader named Gonpo Namgyal died. As his body was being prepared for traditional Tibetan funeral rites, marks were found indicating he had been brutally tortured in jail.

    His crime? Gonpo Namgyal had been part of a campaign to protect the Tibetan language in China.

    Gonpo Namgyal is the victim of a slow-moving conflict that has dragged on for nearly 75 years, since China invaded Tibet in the mid-20th century. Language has been central to that conflict.

    Tibetans have worked to protect the Tibetan language and resisted efforts to enforce Mandarin Chinese. Yet, Tibetan children are losing their language through enrolment in state boarding schools where they are being educated nearly exclusively in Mandarin Chinese. Tibetan is typically only taught a few times a week – not enough to sustain the language.

    My research, published in a new book in 2024, provides unique insights into the struggle of other minority languages in Tibet that receive far less attention.

    My research shows that language politics in Tibet are surprisingly complex and driven by subtle violence, perpetuated not only by Chinese authorities but also other Tibetans. I’ve also found that outsiders’ efforts to help are failing the minority languages at the highest risk of extinction.

    Tibetan culture under attack

    I lived in Ziling, the largest city on the Tibetan Plateau, from 2005 to 2013, teaching in a university, studying Tibetan and supporting local non-government organisations.

    Most of my research since then has focused on language politics in the Rebgong valley on the northeast Tibetan Plateau. From 2014 to 2018, I interviewed dozens of people, spoke informally with many others, and conducted hundreds of household surveys about language use.

    I also collected and analysed Tibetan language texts, including government policies, online essays, social media posts and even pop song lyrics.

    When I was in Ziling, Tibetans launched a massive protest movement against Chinese rule just before the Beijing Olympics in 2008. These protests led to harsh government crackdowns, including mass arrests, increased surveillance, and restrictions on freedom of movement and expressions of Tibetan identity. This was largely focused on language and religion.

    Years of unrest ensued, marked by more demonstrations and individual acts of sacrifice. Since 2009, more than 150 Tibetans have set themselves on fire to protest Chinese rule.

    Not just Tibetan under threat

    Tibet is a linguistically diverse place. In addition to Tibetan, about 60 other languages are spoken in the region. About 4% of Tibetans (around 250,000 people) speak a minority language.

    Government policy forces all Tibetans to learn and use Mandarin Chinese. Those who speak only Tibetan have a harder time finding work and are faced with discrimination and even violence from the dominant Han ethnic group.

    Meanwhile, support for Tibetan language education has slowly been whittled away: the government even recently banned students from having private Tibetan lessons or tutors on their school holidays.

    Linguistic minorities in Tibet all need to learn and use Mandarin. But many also need to learn Tibetan to communicate with other Tibetans: classmates, teachers, doctors, bureaucrats or bosses.

    In Rebgong, where I did my research, the locals speak a language they call Manegacha. Increasingly, this language is being replaced by Tibetan: about a third of all families that speak Manegacha are now teaching Tibetan to their children (who also must learn Mandarin).

    The government refuses to provide any opportunities to use and learn minority languages like Manegacha. It also tolerates constant discrimination and violence against Manegacha speakers by other Tibetans.

    These assimilationist state policies are causing linguistic diversity across Tibet to collapse. As these minority languages are lost, people’s mental and physical health suffers and their social connections and communal identities are destroyed.

    How do Manegacha communities resist and navigate language oppression?

    Why does this matter?

    Tibetan resistance to Chinese rule dates back to the People’s Liberation Army invasion in the early 1950s.

    When the Dalai Lama fled to India in 1959, that resistance movement went global. Governments around the world have continued to support Tibetan self-determination and combat Chinese misinformation about Tibet, such as the US Congress passage of the Resolve Tibet Act in 2024.

    Outside efforts to support the Tibetan struggle, however, are failing some of the most vulnerable people: those who speak minority languages.

    Manegacha speakers want to maintain their language. They resist the pressure to assimilate whenever they speak Manegacha to each other, post memes online in Manegacha or push back against the discrimination they face from other Tibetans.

    However, if Tibetans stop speaking Manegacha and other minority languages, this will contribute to the Chinese government’s efforts to erase Tibetan identity and culture.

    Even if the Tibetan language somehow survives in China, the loss of even one of Tibet’s minority languages would be a victory for the Communist Party in the conflict it started 75 years ago.

    Gerald Roche has received funding for this research from the Australian Research Council. He is also affiliated with the Linguistic Justice Foundation.

    – ref. Tibet is one of the most linguistically diverse places in the world. This is in danger of extinction – https://theconversation.com/tibet-is-one-of-the-most-linguistically-diverse-places-in-the-world-this-is-in-danger-of-extinction-246316

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘They’re meant to help and did the complete opposite’: many children feel silenced by family courts

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Georgina Dimopoulos, Associate Professor, Law, Southern Cross University

    Bricolage/AAP

    When parental separation ends up in the family courts, serious risks such as family violence, child abuse, drug, alcohol or substance misuse, and mental health issues are often involved.

    But many children feel shut out of family court processes that decide what is in their “best interests”.

    My new paper, co-authored with Southern Cross University researchers Eliza Hew, Meaghan Vosz and Helen Walsh and published in the journal Child and Family Social Work, looked at how children felt about their experiences in the family courts.

    We interviewed 41 children and young people aged ten to 19 from Queensland, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and Victoria. Four key themes emerged.

    1. Children feel silenced

    Some children we spoke with felt they were heard by family law professionals. Many, however, described feeling silenced. Penny (all names in this article changed to protect identies), aged 14, said:

    [It was like] someone was standing there and putting something over my mouth so I couldn’t speak […] I should have been allowed in the courtroom and been allowed to say what I wanted.

    Chelsea, 15, felt:

    squashed and I just had to do what I was told and be quiet and suck it up, even if it wasn’t what I wanted.

    Family court orders required Paige, 17, and her sister to spend time with their father, contrary to their expressed wishes. Paige blamed herself, saying:

    That was always one of my biggest regrets because I’m like, maybe if I had said something differently, or emphasised it more, they would have understood what I was trying to say and actually listened […] it wouldn’t have made such traumatic memories, which happened afterwards, when we were forced to see him.

    The children in our study wanted to be heard directly. As Troy, 14, put it:

    Talk to us, not about us.

    Children also told us that they wanted their words conveyed accurately by family law professionals to the court. Lisa, 10, said:

    It’s like whispering to another person, and then you keep whispering, whispering, and then eventually, something comes out differently. People get it mixed up.

    Other children felt speaking up was futile. Ari, 11, said:

    I had some ideas that I wanted, that I thought would be fair, but it never really changed […] So I just stopped talking.

    Some children felt speaking up was futile.
    fizkes/Shutterstock

    2. Children feel ‘in the dark’

    Most children we interviewed felt “in the dark” about family court processes. Olive, 11, said she had “no clue what was going on”, while Leo, 13, said:

    I didn’t know anything. I was playing the guessing game.

    Some children got information through their own proactive, even covert efforts. Ava, 13, said:

    I was snooping through Mum’s room and I found some papers.

    Ava then Googled the family court judge who decided her parents’ case, because “she, like, ruined my life. Need to know who.”

    Other children got more information than they wanted.

    Eva, 12, said:

    Mum shared with me lots of the law court stuff and I really wish she didn’t, because I should just be a kid. That was the sort of thing that made me feel […] sort of responsible and it sort of made me look at my mum in a bad way.

    3. Some children will vote with their feet

    Some children said they’d refused to comply with family court parenting orders. As Ava, 13, put it:

    If they can’t listen to me, I’m not going to listen to them.

    Chelsea, 15, explained:

    I wasn’t listened to at all […] in the end, I finally put my foot down, and I was like, “I’m not going to Dad’s”.

    Aaron, 16, and his siblings chose to live with their father, contrary to family court orders. He explained:

    When they said that we had to live with Mum, we just lived with Dad anyway […] They’re meant to help and did the complete opposite.

    4. Children feel less able to trust others

    Children stressed the importance of family law professionals creating space to build trust. But several children felt they were betrayed by law professionals who’d shared what the children had said with their parents.

    Troy, 14, said:

    If I knew what I said was going to get back to Dad, I wouldn’t have said it.

    Jessica, 16, wanted:

    More support on knowing that what I said directly wouldn’t get back to my dad in case I was sent back there, because stuff I said could have really, really, really hurt me if I was sent back.

    Gabrielle, 18, said:

    Adults are meant to be the people that you can trust, particularly when they say that they’re there for your best interest. I lost a lot of trust. I couldn’t trust anyone again.

    Protecting children

    Our study didn’t ask children about details of their family court orders, so it’s possible that, as Aaron, 16, observed, “the people that probably want to do this [research] are probably the people that got messed around”.

    But our findings are important because they expose concerning attitudes about children and their rights in the family courts, and the capacity and skills of professionals to support children to participate meaningfully and safely.

    We’re now working with the children and young people we interviewed to co-create a children’s participation toolkit, which will give children information about their right to participate in family law processes.

    Olive, 11, captures it best:

    You gotta listen to the children, ‘cause it’s their lives. But it’s also like, sometimes they’ve got some pretty great ideas too.

    Georgina Dimopoulos’ research upon which this article is based was partially funded by the Children’s Rights Research Fund (University of Maastricht). She is also a member of the Policy Working Group of the Australian Child Rights Taskforce.

    – ref. ‘They’re meant to help and did the complete opposite’: many children feel silenced by family courts – https://theconversation.com/theyre-meant-to-help-and-did-the-complete-opposite-many-children-feel-silenced-by-family-courts-250636

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: PNG govt’s latest ID plan unlikely to be achieved, says academic

    RNZ Pacific

    The Papua New Guinea government wants to have everyone on their National Identity (NID) card system by the country’s 50th anniversary on 16 September 2025.

    While the government has been struggling to set up the NID programme for more than 10 years, in January the Prime Minister, James Marape, announced they aimed to have 100 percent of Papua New Guineans signed up by September 16.

    However, an academic with the University of PNG, working in conjunction with the Australian National University, Andrew Anton Mako, said there was no chance the government could achieve this goal.

    Anton Mako spoke with RNZ Pacific senior journalist Don Wiseman:

    ANDREW ANTON MAKO: The NID programme was established in November 2014, so it’s 10 years now. I wouldn’t know the mechanics of the delay, why it has taken this long for the project to not deliver on the outcomes, but I can say a lot of money has been invested into the programme.

    By the end of this year, the national government would have spent about 500 million kina (over NZ$211 million). That’s a lot of money to be spent on a particular project, and then it would have only registered about 30 to 40 percent of the total population. So there’s a serious issue there. The project has failed to deliver.

    DON WISEMAN: Come back to that in a moment. But why does the government think that a national ID card is so important?

    AAM: It’s got some usefulness to achieve. If it was well established and well implemented, it would address a number of issues. For example, on doing business and a form of identity that will help people to do business, to apply for jobs in Papua New Guinea or elsewhere, and all that. I believe it has got merit towards it, but I think just that it has not been implemented properly.

    DW: Does the population like the idea?

    AAM: I think generally when it started, people were on board. But when it got delayed, you see a lot of people venting frustration on the NID Facebook page. I think [it’s] popularity has actually fallen over the years.

    DW: It’s money that could go into a whole lot of other, perhaps, more important things?

    AAM: Exactly, there’s pressing issues for the country, in terms of law and order, health and education. Those important sectors have actually fallen over the years. So that 500 million kina would have been better spent.

    DW: So now the government wants the entire country within this system by September 16, and they’re not going to get anywhere near it. They must have realised they wouldn’t get anywhere near it when the Prime Minister made that statement. Surely?

    AAM: It’s not possible. The numbers do not add up. They’ve spent more than 460 million kina over the last 10 years or so, and they’ve only registered 36 percent of the total — 3.3 million people. And then of the 3.3 million people, they’ve only issued an ID card to about 30 to 40 perCent of them . . .

    DW: 30 to 40 percent of those who have already signed up. So it’s what, 10 percent of the country?

    AAM: That’s right, about 1.2 million people have been issued an ID card, including a duplicate card. It is not possible to register the entire country, the rest of the country, in just six, seven or eight months.

    DW: It’s not the first time that the government has come out with what is effectively like a wish list without fully backing it, financially?

    AAM: That’s right. The ambitions that the government and the Prime Minister, their intentions are good, but there is no effective strategy how to get there.

    The resources that are needed to be allocated. It’s just not possible to realise the the end results. For example, the Prime Minister and his government promised that by this year, we would stop importing rice. That was a promise that was made in 2019, so the thing is that the government has not clearly laid out a plan as to how the country will realise that outcome by this year.

    If you are going to promise something, then you have to deliver on it. You have to deliver on the ambitions. Then you have to set up a proper game plan and proper indicators and things like this.

    I think that’s the issue, that you have promised something [and] you must deliver. But you must chart out a proper pathway to deliver that.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –