Category: Analysis

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lauren A. Siegel, Senior Lecturer in Tourism and Events, University of Greenwich

It’s no secret that social media has changed travel. Holidaymakers increasingly seek to imitate images posted by influencers and their peers on platforms like Instagram and TikTok. In our increasingly digital world, travellers now chase the perfect shot like treasure hunters. That can mean navigating crowds, long lines and sometimes even danger – all for content from the world’s most “Instagrammable” spots.

In a widely viewed TikTok video, influencer Zoe Rae (the sister of Love Island star Molly-Mae Hague) voiced her disappointment after visiting Bali. Apparently, it did not look as it did when she saw it online. Her comments attracted a backlash, with critics arguing she was simply experiencing the reality behind the content she and others have helped to promote.

Research has found that many influencers and social media users participate in an “aesthetic economy”. That is, travel is “performed” for likes, views and brand deals. The result? Holidaymakers seeking out highly photogenic (“Instagrammable”) destinations from which to stage their content.

Sometimes “getting the shot” becomes more important than any meaningful cultural exchange between hosts and guests. The behaviour of social media-induced tourists has been found to be more irresponsible than that of other types of travellers.

There were 379 selfie-related deaths between 2008-21, and the quest for the perfect photo can also lead to trespassing and vandalism. Additionally, studies have found that social-media-induced tourists can cause varying levels of damage to the hotspots they visit. This can include environmental erosion, traffic congestion, pollution, increased rubbish and generally making daily life difficult for locals.

Stage-managed selfies

But the demand has fuelled the development of shadow economies like “selfie museums”. These have begun to emerge around the world: Chicago’s wndr Museum, London’s Selfie Factory, Selfie House in Prague, Brazil’s Museum Selfie Day in Sao Paulo, to name just a few.

Our new study shines a light on these parks – purpose-built, self-contained spaces that give visitors a visually stunning, curated environment in which to create content (most often of themselves). For the price of admission, they get convenient access to lighting, props, professional photographers and backdrops for creating content for social media in “Instagrammable” places.

Selfie parks in Bali, Indonesia, offer rice terraces, swings, nests and other “sceneography” associated with its destination image. And there are add-ons like dress rentals, professional photographers who can follow visitors around the park, and personalised photo-editing services.

Selfie parks can offer soft control over visitors in the form of guards, guides and security cameras to monitor behaviour. And they implement daily safety checks and regularly train staff to ensure guests are supervised as they take photos. This is an important alternative to the sometimes risky behaviour of selfie-seekers in viral hotspots.

Of course, the elephant in the room here might be the commodification and inauthenticity that selfie parks represent. Other research has found that locals can be divided about staged photo opportunities, with some seeing them as inauthentic and gimmicky.

There is an awareness that these encounters do not represent the real life of locals. Others, however, consider the money to be made and employment that these opportunities can provide.

Read more:
Why are people taking selfies in front of the LA wildfires?

Our findings from Bali showed that the selfie parks are extremely successful – with more than 1,500 visitors reported in low season. The offering has been expanded in recent years to add more photo spots, infinity pools and even a day club.

For now, all of Bali’s selfie parks are locally owned and managed. This creates an important source of employment, as well as being a launchpad for entrepreneurship among locals.

The idea of selfie parks may take a bit of getting used to. But having spaces where people can take photos, videos and create social media content safely, while bringing in revenue and employment for local communities, offers a viable solution. This is especially true of the places that struggle most with the negative impacts of tourists motivated by social media.

Love them or loathe them, selfie parks probably aren’t going away. And they may represent a broader shift in how people travel, share and consume experiences. In destinations facing an influx of selfie-seeking visitors, they might just be a surprisingly practical solution.

Other “viral” destinations should consider establishing dedicated spaces in which tourists can create content. Destinations like the island of Santorini, nicknamed Greece’s “Instagram island” amid extreme overcrowding alongside other harms, could be the type of place to benefit.

If so many of today’s tourists are chasing the perfect picture, maybe it makes sense to give them a place designed exactly for that.

Lauren A. Siegel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. How selfie parks limit tourism damage to the world’s most ‘Instagrammable’ destinations – https://theconversation.com/how-selfie-parks-limit-tourism-damage-to-the-worlds-most-instagrammable-destinations-262071

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Colin Manning, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Climate Science, Newcastle University

Storm Floris made landfall in northern parts of the UK on the morning of Monday August 4 2025, bringing intense rainfall followed by severe winds throughout the afternoon. The Met Office issued an amber weather warning for much of Scotland and yellow alerts for parts of Northern Ireland and northern England.

Affected areas can expect 20mm–40mm of rain on average, with some areas of Scotland potentially receiving up to 80mm. Wind speeds in exposed and elevated regions could reach 80mph–90mph, while gusts of 50mph-60mph are forecast for much of Scotland.

The storm’s defining characteristic is the unusually strong winds for August, a time typically less prone to severe wind events. The odd seasonal timing has increased the risk to the public, as more people are outdoors, travelling for holidays or staying in campsites. In addition, trees remain in full leaf, making them more likely to be brought down by high winds.

Authorities are anticipating significant disruption to transport and electricity networks largely due to falling trees. This is underlined by recent research showing an increased risk of large power outages during windstorms that occur in summer. A large amount of debris on the ground from trees may also block drainage systems and contribute to localised flooding.

Persistent strong winds will combine with periods of heavy rainfall for the duration of the amber alert, which expires at 23:00. This will create difficult conditions for emergency workers and prevent access to affected locations if roads are blocked, potentially prolonging disruptions to travel and power networks.

Is this typical of summer months?

Storm Floris carries all the hallmarks of a classic mid-latitude storm. These develop due to sharp temperature contrasts between the northern and southern Atlantic Ocean and intensify under the influence of a strong jet stream. This is a core of fast-moving air high in the atmosphere that stretches across the Atlantic and often steers storms towards the UK.

Such conditions are unusual for the summer months, when warmer Atlantic sea temperatures typically weaken these temperature gradients and shift them farther north, closer to the polar regions. However, it is not uncommon for such storms to occur in August.

Notable ones in the past five years include Storm Ellen, which extensively damaged electricity distribution infrastructure in Ireland and led the Irish meterological service to produce and red and amber weather warning for southern parts of Ireland. Previous storms in August cancelled the Boardmasters music festival in Cornwall in 2019 and closed two stages of Leeds festival in 2024.

Floris is classified as a Shapiro-Keyser cyclone, a type distinguished by a warm core encircled by colder air on its north, west and south sides. This structure is visible in the way the storm’s frontal system wraps around its centre, forming a characteristic comma-shape in the clouds around the cyclone centre. Storms of this kind are responsible for a significant number of the UK’s most damaging wind events.

These cyclones often feature sharp pressure gradients and strong low-level airflows, particularly an air stream known as the cold jet, or cold conveyor belt, which can produce severe surface winds. In some cases, they can also generate a sting jet, a narrow stream of air that descends rapidly from around 5km above the land surface, delivering intense, damaging gusts.

Fortunately, satellite imagery suggests that Storm Floris is unlikely to have produced a sting jet. However, the cold jet alone may still drive wind speeds high enough to cause widespread disruption.

These types of storms can also produce intense rainfall along their frontal boundaries, as seen with Storm Floris. Warmer summer temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, increasing the potential for heavier downpours. In addition, the heat contributes to a more unstable atmosphere, encouraging strong convective ascents of air that can yield extremely heavy and localised rainfall.

Floris in the future

Research shows that climate change will influence the characteristics of storms like Floris, though not all aspects will be affected equally. Warmer temperatures are expected to make future storms wetter, as increased atmospheric moisture and convective activity enhances rainfall, particularly along frontal systems. However, projections of wind extremes remain more uncertain.

Climate models generally suggest a modest intensification of winter storms over the UK and a decrease in the intensity of summer storms, implying that systems like Floris could become less common. These projections are largely tied to expected changes in Atlantic temperature gradients and the behaviour of the jet stream.

That said, most long-term climate projections rely on relatively coarse-resolution models which often fail to capture key features that drive storm intensification. These include the gulf stream (a warm Atlantic Ocean current) and drivers of extreme winds including the cold jet and sting jet.

A higher-resolution model, like that used in real-time forecasting for Storm Floris, predicts more intense winter windstorms in a warmer climate. Much of this intensification is linked to stronger cold jets and a potential increase in storms that generate sting jets.

Many powerful summer and autumn storms in the UK originate from tropical cyclones such as hurricanes, as seen with Storm Ophelia in 2017. These systems are poorly represented in lower-resolution climate models, yet they contribute significantly to Europe’s most extreme windstorms.

While Storm Floris has no tropical origins, a variety of storms can affect northern Europe at this time of year. The complexity of assessing their risks remains an area of ongoing research.

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Colin Manning receives funding from UKRI.

– ref. Storm Floris: the weather is rarely this windy in August – which makes it more dangerous – https://theconversation.com/storm-floris-the-weather-is-rarely-this-windy-in-august-which-makes-it-more-dangerous-262535

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Faek Menla Ali, Associate Professor in Finance, University of Sussex

More than a decade of devastating conflict has left Syria’s economy in tatters, its infrastructure in ruins and its population deeply fragmented. The fledgling transitional government in Damascus, which came to power following a lightning rebel offensive in December 2024, often speaks of a “new Syria”. But the pressing question remains: how long will recovery take?

The numbers are stark. In 2011, the year war broke out, the World Bank estimated Syria’s GDP at around US$67.5 billion (£50.7 billion). Its most recent estimate, for 2023, puts GDP at US$20 billion – a drop of more than 70%. And these figures don’t tell the whole story. Inflation and currency collapse make it difficult to compare over time.

Some organisations offer rough inflation estimates for Syria, but these are obscured by currency depreciation. The Syrian pound has lost more than 99.5% of its value against the US dollar since 2011, falling from 50 pounds per dollar to around 10,375 pounds per dollar today. This severe depreciation distorts the real domestic price picture.

To get a better sense of on-the-ground price trends, I recently conducted an informal survey of non-tradable goods and services across Syria. It included things like rent, haircuts and private clinic fees. The results of this exploratory approach suggest that, in US dollar terms, prices for such items have risen by about 50% since 2010.

In other words, inflation in Syria has been real and significant – not just a side effect of exchange rate collapse. Patterns varied sharply across the country. While prices have increased in areas of relative stability and refuge, they stagnated or declined in cities devastated by war.

With this inflation adjustment, I estimate that Syria’s real GDP in 2024 – measured in constant 2010 US dollars – is closer to US$13.3 billion, an 80% drop from its pre-war level. This figure more accurately reflects the economy’s actual performance, including wellbeing, living standards and productivity.

To put this figure in context, Syria’s GDP would now be around US$121.3 billion – excluding the anomalous pandemic year – had the economy continued growing at its pre-war average of 5% per year. The gap between this counterfactual and current output reflects the immense toll of the war.

Rebuilding Syria’s economy will be a monumental challenge. At a high growth rate of 7% per year, it would still take over 30 years for Syria to catch up to its pre-war trajectory. Even with exceptionally strong growth of 10%, the process would stretch over two decades.

Jump-starting growth

The causes of Syria’s economic collapse are well known. The war resulted in the destruction of much of its physical capital, the displacement of labour, the erosion of institutions and the imposition of sweeping international sanctions.

Some US and EU sanctions have been eased. But this alone won’t be enough to reverse Syria’s economic decline. Meanwhile, the Trump administration in the US has announced 41% tariffs on Syrian imports, hindering future trade with the US.

The Syrian government is betting heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI) to jump-start growth. This approach comes with risks. In weakly regulated markets, FDI can raise both operating and consumer costs – particularly in monopolistic or oligopolistic sectors such as utilities, telecommunications and ports. This may contribute to rising inflation and worsening inequality.

Syria’s pre-war economic model, which was characterised by crony capitalism and limited competition, raises further concerns about whether FDI will genuinely broaden opportunity or simply entrench existing elites. Without transparent policy frameworks, there is a danger that liberalisation could crowd out local firms, undermine capacity building and fail to diversify the economy.

The privatisation of state-owned enterprises in Syria is already underway, though the future of the social safety net remains unclear. Greater openness may attract capital and expertise, but it will also expose Syria to global market volatility. This is an unfamiliar dynamic for a country that has long been insulated.

The critical question is whether the Syrian government’s strategy can generate an export-driven recovery. A stronger current account and healthier foreign currency reserves would boost the capacity of Syria’s economy to withstand future economic shocks.

Agriculture, once a major contributor to GDP, should be a policy priority. So too should revitalising Syria’s once-globally competitive manufacturing sectors, such as the textile industry in Aleppo.

The oil and gas sector, which historically underpinned fiscal revenues, will also play a key role if stability returns. Other possible growth areas include boosting the tourism sector and positioning Syria as a powerhouse for light manufacturing.

Yet FDI, and the broader surge in capital inflows, cannot deliver financial stability on their own. Many post-conflict countries experience balance-of-payments pressures and renewed economic crises if capital flows are not well managed.

Research on global capital flow dynamics over the past four decades has provided strong evidence of boom-bust cycles in these flows, especially in developing and emerging market economies.

Rebuilding effective institutions, the rule of law and accountability mechanisms in Syria will thus be critical. These are essential not only to attract investment, but also to prevent the corruption and rent-seeking that often characterise post-war transitions.

A credible path forward must also include the active mobilisation of Syria’s diaspora – a deep reservoir of capital, skills and entrepreneurial energy. Approximately 400,000 Syrians have returned from neighbouring countries since December 2024, most from Turkey. This has included a handful of prominent businessmen.

A final point is that any sustainable recovery depends on political inclusion, especially given Syria’s ethnic and religious diversity. Economies that embrace pluralism tend to be more resilient and prosperous. Long-term prosperity will depend not only on sound policies but also on the kind of state Syria chooses to rebuild.

The coming years will be decisive. Syria’s economic trajectory hinges on whether it can strike the right balance between opening to global markets and protecting vulnerable domestic economic sectors from the shocks of rapid liberalisation.

With prudent policymaking, transparent governance and inclusive political solutions, Syria can begin to lay the foundation for long-term economic recovery. Much depends on the choices made in this pivotal chapter.

Faek Menla Ali does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Can Syria rebuild its economy from the ashes of war? – https://theconversation.com/can-syria-rebuild-its-economy-from-the-ashes-of-war-262271

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ryan Davey, Lecturer in Social Sciences, Cardiff University

You get a payment reminder through the letterbox, maybe for a credit card, an overdraft, a bill, or a parking fine. You ignore it and leave the envelope unopened, or put it to one side to deal with later. Many of us will recognise this scenario.

Ignoring debts and other payment commitments is often dismissed as being irresponsible. But a closer look reveals that many people see things differently, reflecting a deeper point about inequality in Britain today.

To understand people’s experiences of debt problems better, I lived in a low-income community in the south of England for 18 months, where debt problems were commonplace. I also interviewed debt advisers and their clients across the UK. It gave me a unique opportunity to understand their situation and how they respond to debt, something which I detail in my new book.

While debt relative to income is falling, the total amount of unsecured household debt now far outstrips its peak during the 2008 global financial crisis.

Amid big rises in the cost of living, more and more people have been borrowing money to cover essentials like food, energy, rent or council tax. In October 2024, 4 million low-income households held loans they took out for this purpose, and nearly nine out of ten of them were going without essentials anyway.

Meanwhile, lenders continue to charge the highest interest to those least able to afford it. In 2024, an estimated 5.5 million people were falling behind on their bills or credit repayments.

In the community where I lived, many people worked, but their wages were not enough to afford what they needed. So residents borrowed money to make ends meet, claimed welfare benefits or did cash-in-hand work. This reflects a broader reality with labour markets in Britain today, where 4.5 million wage-workers are paid below the real living wage.

As a result, most of the residents I worked with were in arrears with one or more payments. They received phone calls, letters and knocks at the door from debt collectors, threatening court orders, or they had to deal with bailiffs trying to seize their possessions. Some worried about being evicted.

This is a distressing situation that can easily lead to mental health problems. Debt problems are strongly linked to diagnosed mental health disorders and even suicide. All of the debt advice clients I interviewed had experienced anxiety, depression, suicidal thoughts or other mental health issues.

Making light

However, in the community where I temporarily lived, many residents had found ways to try to stay optimistic despite the threats of debt enforcement. Some made light of their debts by joking about how bad they were at repaying or how poor their credit ratings were.

Many people focused on their home and family life. One woman worried about it being “a skint few weeks”, saying: “We’ll get through it. We always do. You just focus on what’s around you.”

An unemployed man in his late forties told me how his pride in his 12-year-old daughter kept him from “going suicidal”.

Most of all, though, people avoided their creditors. Residents often strained to meet repayment demands, but just as often they ignored them. They hung up the telephone when debt collectors called, left envelopes unopened or stashed away, or pretended not to be at home if bailiffs visited. One man said when he received a demand to pay his water bills: “Well, they can fuck off,” and threw the letter in the bin.

Trying to deal with debt head-on, in the sense of paying what debt collectors were demanding by the exact time they demanded it, could create immense anxiety and even physical health problems. One man told me: “You know, for a while I was trying to keep on top of them and eventually … well, it was making me ill [because of worrying about it]. So I couldn’t keep on like that. I just left them and got on with things.”

These accounts reveal a deeper point about inequality in Britain. Financial lending tends to extract wealth from those with less and transfer it towards the better-off. Debt is a systemic feature of our economy, and debt problems have complex causes. However, the threat of enforcement convinces many people they are single-handedly responsible for being in debt. This places the blame for poverty on the shoulders of those experiencing it, subtly implying the wealthy are morally superior.

Stigma

More than mere personal prejudice, the stigma around debt is hard-wired into the legal system. If we assume that every legally valid debt must be paid as a moral duty, no matter what, then we ignore the economic realities that make borrowing a necessity for so many. This simplistic assumption only reinforces the hardship of those in debt.

Take the example of people ignoring their debts. Usually they are labelled as irresponsible or lacking financial skills. But ignoring debts is often a deliberate response to a situation that people find immoral or harmful to their health.

It is tempting to think that if debt is the problem, the remedy is to reform it. Subsidising credit so lower-income groups pay lower interest, restoring funding for debt advice, amplifying the voices of those who have been in debt and widening access to insolvency and debt cancellation could all improve things.

But reliance on borrowing is also a symptom of broader issues. These may be better addressed by efforts to redistribute resources and curb coercive sanctions, such as taxing wealth, guaranteeing higher incomes (both wages and benefits), controlling the cost of rent and other essentials, protecting against eviction and abolishing bailiffs.

In the meantime, many indebted people on low incomes will continue to ignore debt collectors’ demands. Through their actions, I believe they question the widely held assumption that there is always a moral duty to pay in our unequal world.

Ryan Davey has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, the William Wyse Fund and the Cambridge Political Economy Society Trust at the University of Cambridge, and a Vice-Chancellor’s Fellowship at the University of Bristol.

– ref. Why people ignore debt letters – and what it says about inequality today – https://theconversation.com/why-people-ignore-debt-letters-and-what-it-says-about-inequality-today-256293

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anastasia Topalidou, Research Fellow (Perinatal Biomechanics and Health Technologies), University of Lancashire

Maternal and newborn deaths are rising globally, not just in low- and middle-income countries, but in wealthy nations too. Researchers have described the situation as a “global failure” and a “major scandal”.

In the UK, more women are now dying during pregnancy and childbirth than at any time in the past 20 years, despite a fall in the birth rate. A national maternity investigation has just been launched, and public concern is growing.

Yet while politicians and healthcare leaders debate staffing levels and service delivery, one major contributor to poor outcomes is being almost entirely overlooked: biomechanical complications during labour.

Biomechanics refers to how the body moves and responds to physical forces. During pregnancy, it describes how the body adapts to the increasing demands of carrying a growing baby. During labour, it involves some of the most physically intense and complex actions the human body can perform, as it prepares for and facilitates the delivery of a baby.

After analysing 87 studies from around the world, we discovered that not a single one had ever investigated the biomechanics of labour. None examined how women’s bodies actually move, adapt or respond during birth. All the research focused solely on pregnancy. And despite rising maternal deaths in the UK, not a single antenatal biomechanics study had been conducted here either.

This isn’t just an academic oversight. Labour is biomechanically intense, involving force, posture, motion, muscle control and joint loading. Without evidence on how positions, manoeuvres or techniques affect the birthing body, maternity care relies largely on tradition, anecdotal evidence and outdated assumptions.

A dangerous lack of diversity

Some pregnancy-related biomechanical changes have been documented, but these vary widely from person to person. There is no “typical” pathway. Yet standard guidance assumes a one-size-fits-all model, often failing to account for these variations.

Worse still, almost no studies included data on ethnicity. Only one mentioned participants’ ethnic background, but it did not analyse the data by group or explore any differences. That is a serious gap, given that anatomical features like pelvic shape, joint mobility, spinal alignment and culturally shaped movement patterns can vary across populations. These differences could significantly affect how women move and give birth, yet they remain completely overlooked.

This is a serious problem, especially in the UK. Mothers and Babies: Reducing Risk through Audits and Confidential Enquiries across the UK (MBRRACE-UK) – the national programme that investigates maternal and infant deaths – along with other official reports, consistently show that Black and Asian women are nearly three times more likely to die during childbirth than white women. If all the biomechanical knowledge we have is based on white bodies, yet clinical guidance is applied universally, we may be missing important risks or needs. This lack of inclusive data could be contributing to the persistent racial disparities in maternal outcomes.

We also found that even widely used techniques such as squatting or the McRoberts’ manoeuvre – a common emergency intervention – have never been biomechanically validated during labour. This means that no one has scientifically tested how these movements affect the body’s joints, muscles, and bones during actual childbirth. So, we don’t know if they help, hinder, or have no measurable impact on the birthing process.

A handful of studies tested some of these positions on pregnant women in static, controlled conditions, but none included women in active labour. Those studies revealed no measurable advantage for any of the positions tested. Even the McRoberts’ manoeuvre did not significantly change pelvic or spinal alignment.

That means decades of advice, clinical practice, and emergency response protocols may be based on theory and biomechanical guesswork, rather than evidence. And while these techniques are used every day – often in urgent situations – they have never been scientifically tested on women in active labour. So no clinical studies have examined how these interventions actually affect the birthing body in real time. We don’t know if they work as intended, or if they could be refined to improve safety.

Tradition over science

The consequences of this blind spot are not theoretical or a matter of academic curiosity. They’re about safety, dignity and fairness. Maternal and neonatal outcomes are getting worse. Stillbirths and deaths shortly after birth have increased. Behind these statistics are real families and real tragedies. Many of which may have been preventable.

So why haven’t we filled this gap? Part of the reason is technical: traditional biomechanical systems are difficult to use in clinical settings. But that’s no excuse. New technologies are being developed all the time. If we have the capability to launch rockets and explore space, we should surely be able – and arguably obliged – to understand the basic biomechanics of human birth.

The real barrier is structural neglect. Women were routinely excluded from clinical research until the 1990s, and even now, research into women’s health remains massively underfunded and overlooked. As a result, childbirth, one of the most common yet life-altering events in medicine, is still shaped by untested ideas.

This isn’t just a research gap. It’s a failure of safety, equity and scientific responsibility. We are delivering babies in the dark, and those most at risk are often the ones who are left behind.

Dr Topalidou received a Pre-Application Support Fund Award from the National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration North West Coast (NIHR ARC NWC) to support this work. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR, NHS, or the Department of Health and Social Care.

– ref. Why we still don’t understand what happens to women’s bodies during labour – https://theconversation.com/why-we-still-dont-understand-what-happens-to-womens-bodies-during-labour-261803

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam J Smith, Associate Professor in 18th-century Literature, York St John University

From the pompous vanity of Sir Walter Elliot in Persuasion (1817), to the shallow reading habits of Isabella in Northanger Abbey (1817), few characters in the works of Jane Austen are spared the gentle satire of her famously ironic narrative voice. Similarly, some of her best remembered characters, like Elizabeth Bennet in Pride and Prejudice (1813), are more than willing to share a sarcastic retort or wry observation.

And yet, Austen, like many other women writers of the period such as Frances Burney, Eliza Haywood and Mary Robinson, are almost always missing from histories of satire. This is less to do with whether their works were satirical – because they blatantly were – and more to do with our problematic understanding of satire.

Satire, as writer Dustin Griffin states, is typically defined as a work designed to “attack vice or folly”, using “wit or riducule” and engaging “in exaggeration and some sort or fiction.”

This article is part of a series commemorating the 250th anniversary of Jane Austen’s birth. Despite having published only six books, she is one of the best-known authors in history. These articles explore the legacy and life of this incredible writer.

Austen, like so many women, used satire and humour to critique her situation in a patriarchal society and, in so doing, persistently challenged deeply ingrained assumptions about women’s status as the passive, subordinate property of men. As literary critic Rachel Brownstein memorably put it, women at the time experienced a constant doubleness that frequently became “the ironic self-awareness of a rational creature absurdly caught in a lady’s place”.

And yet, when asked to name 18th-century satirists, it is so often the case that we are confronted with the same list of authors: Jonathan Swift, author of Gulliver’s Travels (1726), Alexander Pope, author of The Dunciad (1728), and sometimes Henry Fielding, author of Tom Jones (1749). Typically the thread isn’t then picked up again until a century later, when we are offered Charles Dickens (in works such as The Pickwick Papers (1837), William Makepeace Thackeray’s Vanity Fair (1848) and Anthony Trollope’s The Way We Live Now (1875).

However, there are so many examples of brilliant satire written by women at the time.

Take for instance, The Art of Ingeniously Tormenting (1753) by Jane Collier. A satirical conduct book which, rather than advising young women on how to become delicate, feminine creatures, instead gave them tips on how to torment their husbands. Why kill your spouse, it cheerfully asks, when it will be far more satisfying to “waste them by degrees”, effectively killing them slowly across a lifetime of nagging.

There was also Eliza Haywood’s satirical periodical The Parrot (1746), which adopted the perspective of a green parrot in a cage, tired of being objectified and written off as a “pretty prattler”.

Sarah Scott’s Millenium Hall (1782) is about a group of women deciding to abandon patriarchal society altogether and establish a women-only commune. It is full of withering observations. While Mary Robinson’s Walsingham (1797) exposes the many contradictions of 18th-century Britain’s sexist society by telling the story of a girl raised as a boy by parents anxious to have a male heir.

As a girl, Austen loved Frances Burney’s Evelina (1778), a novel about a young woman who, upon arriving in Bath for the first time, cannot stop laughing at the utter absurdity of fashionable society. (Evelina is also a novel in which a monkey wearing a suit appears out of nowhere, goes berserk, and is never mentioned again. You should read it immediately.)

Similarly, the anonymous novel The Woman of Colour (1808), sees a young heroine born in Jamaica, Olivia Fairfield, travelling to England to secure her inheritance only to discover the high society she’d been raised to admire is in fact barbarous and stupid. As both spectacle and spectator, Olivia becomes a powerful engine for satire.

Even Charlotte Brontë deployed satire. Brontë was an admirer of William Makepeace Thackeray and dedicated the second edition of Jane Eyre (1847) to his famously satirical novel Vanity Fair (1848). As 19th-century literature expert Jo Smith has recently observed, Brontë also used her persona, Currer Bell, to enact satire across her career, even articulating her own theory of satire.

The subtle barb instead of the violent attack

That these women’s names don’t come up in lists of great satirists of the period is partly due to the availability of their writing. Many of the texts I’ve mentioned have only been recovered and made publicly available again over the last 50 years. But it is also to do with how we talk about satire.

The purest definition of satire is that it performs a critique of something that the author finds to be ridiculous, stupid or dangerous, and uses some kind of distortion as part of this critique. This usually takes the form of exaggeration, but can also be inversion or allegory.

However, you’ll notice that when people talk about satire they often describe the lash of the satirist’s whip, or the slash of the surgeon’s scalpel. Satire is talked about as biting, skewering and violent.

The satirist, from the Roman poet Juvenal through to John Dryden and Jonathan Swift, is often imagined as a heroic aggressor, whose righteous indignation drives him to lash out at a fallen world. This is an image born of Renaissance theories of satire, and one slightly modified (but heavily promoted) during the endless, rarely objective, debates about what satire should be that dominated the 18th century.

As a result, we end up with a definition of satire that is coded in masculine language. So many definitions, even today, talk about satire “attacking”, rather than “critiquing”. But in Austen, and the work of her female contemporaries, we see another kind of satire. The joy of so many of the quips and rejoinders issued by characters like Anne Elliot and Elizabeth Bennet is that often their targets don’t even realise they have been satirised, so subtle is the critique.

Virginia Woolf said it best when called upon to describe Austen’s juvenilia, in particular her early novel Love and Freindship sic:

What is this note, which never merges in the rest, which sounds distinctly and penetratingly all through the volume? It is the sound of laughter. The girl of 15 is laughing, in her corner, at the world.

This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and contains links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

Adam J Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Jane Austen was a satirist – why isn’t she treated like one? – https://theconversation.com/jane-austen-was-a-satirist-why-isnt-she-treated-like-one-262274

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Andrew Sinclair, Deputy Director of the Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute

World Athletics president Sebastian Coe recently announced a new rule for women athletes, requiring mandatory genetic tests to verify their biological sex.

This test must be done if athletes wish to compete in September’s World Athletics Championships in Tokyo.

World Athletics has said all athletes competing as women must have an SRY gene test to identify whether a male Y chromosome is present.

Any athlete whose test shows the presence of the SRY gene will be banned from competing in the women’s category in elite events.

Coe said the decision was made to ensure “the integrity of women’s sport” with World Athletics asserting:

The SRY gene is a reliable proxy for determining biological sex.

I argue the science does not support this overly simplistic assertion.

I should know, because I discovered the SRY gene on the human Y chromosome in 1990. For 35 years I have been researching it and other genes required for testis development.

A brief primer on testes and ovary development

If a human embryo has XY chromosomes, then at six weeks of development the SRY gene on the Y chromosome triggers a cascade of events involving some 30 different genes that lead to the formation of testes.

In simplest terms, the testes then produce hormones including testosterone, leading to male development.

However, if an embryo has XX chromosomes, a whole different group of genes come into play, ovaries form and the hormones produced result in a female.

We know making testes or ovaries requires a complex network of many interacting genes and proteins.

Some genes promote testis development while others promote ovary development.

Other genes either suppress ovary formation or antagonise testis formation.

Even once ovaries or testes are fully formed, we require other genes to maintain them. These genes don’t always function as expected, affecting the development of these organs.

How does this relate to sex testing of elite women athletes?

Changes or variants in the many genes that regulate the development of a testis or ovary can result in sex reversal or a non-functioning testis or ovary.

What do I mean by this?

If there is a change in the SRY gene so it does not function as usual, then a person can fail to develop testes and be biologically female. Yet they carry XY chromosomes and under the World Athletics tests they would be excluded from competition.

Other XY individuals may have a functioning SRY gene but are female – with breasts and female genitalia, for example – but have internal testes.

Importantly, the cells of these people are physically unable to respond to the testosterone produced by these testes. Yet, they would receive positive SRY tests and be excluded from competition.

At the 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta, eight of 3,387 women athletes had positive test results for a Y chromosome. Of these, seven were resistant to testosterone.

The SRY test isn’t cut-and-dried

World Athletics asserts the SRY gene is a reliable proxy for determining biological sex. But biological sex is much more complex, with chromosomal, gonadal (testis/ovary), hormonal and secondary sex characteristics all playing a role.

Using SRY to establish biological sex is wrong because all it tells you is whether or not the gene is present.

It does not tell you how SRY is functioning, whether a testis has formed, whether testosterone is produced and, if so, whether it can be used by the body.

Other problems with the SRY testing process

World Athletics is recommending all women athletes take a cheek swab or blood sample to test for the presence of SRY.

Normally, the sample would be sent to a lab that would extract DNA and look for the presence of the SRY gene.

This may be easy enough in wealthy countries, but what is going to happen in poorer nations without these facilities?

It is worth noting these tests are sensitive. If a male lab technician conducts the test he can inadvertently contaminate it with a single skin cell and produce a false positive SRY result.

No guidance is given on how to conduct the test to reduce the risk of false results.

Nor does World Athletics recognise the impacts a positive test result would have on a person, which can be more profound than exclusion from sport alone.

There was no mention from World Athletics that appropriate genetic counselling should be provided, which is considered necessary prior to genetic testing and challenging to access in many lower- and middle-income countries.

I, along with many other experts, persuaded the International Olympic Committee to drop the use of SRY for sex testing for the 2000 Sydney Olympics.

It is therefore very surprising that, 25 years later, there is a misguided effort to bring this test back.

Given all the problems outlined above, the SRY gene should not be used to exclude women athletes from competition.

Andrew Sinclair receives funding from NHMRC

– ref. World Athletics’ mandatory genetic test for women athletes is misguided. I should know – I discovered the relevant gene in 1990 – https://theconversation.com/world-athletics-mandatory-genetic-test-for-women-athletes-is-misguided-i-should-know-i-discovered-the-relevant-gene-in-1990-262367

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Sandra Garrido, NHMRC-ARC Dementia Research Development Fellow, Western Sydney University

Deep in your memory, your brain has created a playlist of music from your teenage years. Even though life has moved on, hearing that music now likely still brings up some really powerful emotions.

Why?

Well, as with anything to do with the brain and with emotions, it’s hard to say for sure. But it’s likely a bit to do with evolution, and a bit to do with some key neurological changes that occur in the teenage years.

Imagine the world of a prehistoric teenager

Changing hormones supercharge the limbic system, which is the emotional centre of the brain. Teens become emotionally sensitive and susceptible to intense mood swings.

At the same time, we start to become less reliant on our parents.

This increasing independence accelerates the need to forge close relationships with peers. We need to learn very quickly how to interpret the emotions of others, and develop strong memories of things that are safe or unsafe.

Imagine the world of a prehistoric teenager. No longer a child wholly dependent on their parents, the adolescent feels an instinctive drive to explore new territory and strike out on their own.

Away from their family’s protection, survival now hinges on bonds with peers.

Going it alone is fraught with danger. Belonging to a group becomes a matter of life or death.

The teen finds a new pack, which communicates crucial information to each other using body language or non-linguistic verbalisations. Variations in the voice pitch or the speed of speech signal urgency or excitement.

Strong emotional reactions – the fear of danger, the thrill of a successful hunt, an intense connection with a potential mate – ensure memories about what to fear and what to seek are deeply carved into this teenage brain.

The stronger the emotion, the deeper the memory.

The brains of modern teens aren’t much different

In today’s world, we seldom need to hunt for food or protect ourselves from predators trying to eat us. But modern teenage brains are still wired to react quickly and instinctively.

Modern teens will still strike out away from the safety of the family circle, learning to navigate the treacherous world of adolescent relationships.

As we all know – often from searingly painful personal experience – teenage brains are keenly attuned to non-linguistic social cues that signal acceptance or rejection by the pack.

We are evolutionarily wired to lay down deep memories in our brains of events that have had a strong emotional impact on us.

So what’s this got to do with teen music tastes?

Music can convey linguistic and non-linguistic emotion.

Lyrics can tell a story that makes us feel heard and understood. They might signal we belong and are connected – with the artist, with other fans, and with broader human experiences such as love, lust or loneliness.

The melody and beat communicate emotion too.

In fact, some scholars believe the very reason music exists is related to the non-linguistic elements of speech that our prehistoric ancestors may have used to communicate before spoken language developed.

Our brains may respond to these signals in music the way our prehistoric ancestors responded to expressions of urgency, excitement or peace from other members of the tribe.

The way music communicates and evokes emotion is what makes it so important in life, particularly during the teenage years.

Teenagers may spend several hours per day listening to music, particularly when going through periods of psychological distress.

During this period – when emotional experiences and the learning that comes from them are so crucial to learning to survive – music becomes a powerful tool.

It can act as a simulator for practising emotional skills, a guide to navigating emotional ups and downs and a key to finding connection and belonging.

In other words, the music that we hear in our teenage years becomes closely intertwined with the strong emotions we experience at that time.

A time of many firsts

The music of your teens was likely the backdrop to your first kiss, the anthem you sang along to with friends, and a source of comfort when your heart was first broken.

Evolution has programmed you to feel every moment of your teenage years profoundly, so you can learn important lessons about how to survive, become independent and connect with others.

At the same time, music may be tapping into an ancient, pre-language part of our brains.

The music that accompanied high-stakes moments of your youth is forever linked to the powerful emotions you experienced then, and deeply embedded in the brain.

That is why, for the rest of our lives, those songs act as a kind of musical key to a neurological time capsule.

Sandra Garrido does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Why do I feel so emotional when I listen to music from my teenage years? – https://theconversation.com/why-do-i-feel-so-emotional-when-i-listen-to-music-from-my-teenage-years-260819

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Bradley Smith, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, CQUniversity Australia

She’s six years old, lives in Brisbane and might just be one of the best resilience coaches on television.

We’re talking about Bluey, the animated Aussie pup whose adventures have captured the hearts of families around the world.

But as our new study reveals, Bluey isn’t just entertaining kids, she’s modelling how to to deal with life’s ups and downs.

Why is resilience so important?

Resilience isn’t just about “toughing it out”. It’s the ability to cope with challenges, adapt to setbacks and recover from difficulties. It’s a vital part of healthy child development.

Research shows resilience helps children manage stress, regulate their emotions, build better relationships, and even perform better at school. Without it, children may be more vulnerable to anxiety, depression and poor coping skills later in life.

Children today face growing mental health challenges, including around anxiety and emotional dysregulation. For example, a 2023 national resilience survey of almost 140,000 students found more than one in four primary and one in three secondary students reported high levels of psychological distress.

Research shows the earlier we support resilience-building, the better. Early interventions help build healthy coping skills before negative patterns take hold.

How TV can help

Storytelling in films, books and TV can show children how to navigate challenges – not through lectures, but by modelling behaviours like emotional regulation, problem-solving and empathy.

Animal characters in storytelling also offer valuable learning opportunities for children, who are naturally drawn to animals.

Bluey first aired in 2018. It has since become Australia’s most successful children’s program, with billions of views worldwide.

It is known for its realistic portrayal of young family life. Yet until now, no one had systematically examined how it – or any kid’s TV show – presents resilience on screen.

So we watched all 150 Bluey episodes

In our study, we analysed every episode of Bluey from seasons one to three. The 150 episodes added up to 18 hours of Bluey, Bingo, Chilli, Bandit and their friends.

For each episode, we looked closely at the storyline, characters and themes, identifying moments where a character faced a challenge and showed a resilient response.

To guide our analysis, we used the Grotberg Resilience Framework. This is a widely recognised model in psychology that breaks resilience into three key elements.

1. I have: involving the support systems around a child, such as family, friends, and community role models they can rely on.

2. I can: involving practical coping skills, like solving problems, managing emotions and asking for help when needed.

3. I am: involving a child’s inner strengths like confidence, optimism, emotional regulation and a sense of self worth.

‘It’s out of our hands’

Our research found nearly half of all episodes (73 out of 150) included a clear resilience message as either a primary or secondary theme.

Nearly two-thirds of the resilience moments were facilitated by a parent — most often Bluey’s mum. This fits with the “I have” category of resilience, which highlights how children draw strength from caring adults when things get tough.

For example in The Show (season two episode 19), Bingo accidentally drops a breakfast tray and bursts into tears. Mum gently models emotional coaching explaining her coping process: “I have a little cry, I pick myself up, dust myself off, and keep going.” Research shows that when caregivers model how to acknowledge distress, express feelings, and then recover with calm, children gradually learn to manage negative emotions effectively.

Later in the episode, Bingo repeats those exact words when things go wrong again.

‘Well, that was fun’

Bluey and her sister also frequently demonstrate practical coping skills on their own.

In Keepy Uppy (season one, episode three), the final balloon in a game pops. The kids pause, take it in, and smile. “Well, that was fun,” they say.

In a single moment, we see disappointment, emotional regulation, and reframing – the core of the “I can” category.

Everyday moments, powerful messages

We also see characters overcoming challenges with their own inner strength. In Seesaw (season two, episode 26) Pom Pom shows determination and self-confidence to get to the top of the seesaw and save her friends, in an example of “I am”. As she declares, “Pomeranians are a small but hardy breed”.

We found Bluey touches on almost all of the core elements of resilience: trusting relationships, emotional communication, problem-solving, self-regulation, empathy and more.

In Sheepdog (season three, episode 11), mum Chilli tells her family she needs “20 minutes” of alone time. Bluey is worried she’s done something wrong. Later, during play, Bluey gently echoes her mum’s words to a toy: “It’s hard work looking after you. I just need 20 minutes.”

That simple moment models self-care and perspective-taking as well as empathy. For kids, learning that grown-ups need rest too is a powerful message.

How to watch Bluey with your kids

Of course, no screen can replace real relationships. But when parents watch shows like Bluey with their kids, they become powerful teaching tools.

So the next time your child wants to watch an episode for the tenth time, don’t feel guilty – join them. When parents watch too, those moments become conversation starters. For example, “What do you think Bluey felt then?”, “Have you ever felt like that?” or “What would you do in that situation?”

Talking about what kids see on screen can help them reflect, process, and build the skills they need to cope, adapt and grow.

CQUniversity student Kelly Bohl and co-host of Bluey podcast Gotta Be Done Mary Bolling contributed to the original research on which this article is based.

Bradley Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Researchers watched 150 episodes of Bluey – they found it can teach kids about resilience for real life – https://theconversation.com/researchers-watched-150-episodes-of-bluey-they-found-it-can-teach-kids-about-resilience-for-real-life-262202

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Conor O’Kane, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Bournemouth University

The beginning of August marks the latest deadline for US president Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff policy. This era of chaos and uncertainty began on April 2 and the situation remaims fluid. With the deadline for partners to secure a deal with Washington now passed, it’s a good time to take a broader view and consider if Trump’s trade gamble is paying off.

The objectives of the tariff policy include raising tax revenues, delivering lower prices for American consumers, and boosting American industry while creating manufacturing jobs. The president has also vowed to get better trade deals for the US to reduce its trade deficit and to face down China’s growing influence on the world stage.

But recently the US Federal Reserve voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, despite pressure from Trump to lower them. In his monthly press briefing, Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, said they were still in the early stages of understanding how the tariff policy would affect inflation, jobs and economic growth.

On tariffs, Powell did say that revenues had increased substantially to US$30 billion (£22.9 billion) a month. However, only a small portion of the tariffs are being absorbed by overseas exporters, with most of the cost being borne by US import companies. In comments that will concern the Trump administration, the Fed said the cost of the tariffs was beginning to show up in consumer prices.

The Fed expects inflation to increase to 3% by the end of the year, above its 2% target. US unemployment remains low, with Powell saying the economy is at or very close to full employment.

While Powell’s decision to hold interest rates probably irritated Trump, economic theory suggests that lowering them with the US economic cycle at full employment would be likely to increase inflation and the cost of living for US consumers. A survey by Bloomberg economists suggests that US GDP growth forecasts are lower since April 2025, specifically because of its tariff policy.

In terms of boosting US employment, the US administration can point to significant wins in the pharmaceutical sector. In July, British-Swedish drugmaker AstraZenica announced plans to spend US$50 billion expanding its US research and manufacturing facilities by 2030. The announcement follows a similar pledge from Swiss pharmaceuticals firm Roche in April to invest US$50 billion in the US over the next five years.

Tougher times for US manufacturing

The impact of tariffs on traditional US manufacturing industries is less positive. The Ford Motor Company has warned that its profits will see a sharp drop. This is largely down to a net tariff impact that the firm says will cost it US$2 billion this financial year. This is despite the company making nearly all of its vehicles in the US.

Firms such as Ford are seeing an increase in tariff-related costs for imports. This dents their profits as well as dividends to shareholders.

In recent months the US has announced major new trade agreements, including with the UK, Japan, South Korea and the EU. Talks on a trade deal with China continue. But rather than trade deals, these announcements should be thought of as frameworks for trade deals. No legally binding documents have been signed to date.

Read more:
European gloom over the Trump deal is misplaced. It’s probably the best the EU could have achieved

It will take many months before a clear picture emerges of how these bilateral deals will affect the US trade deficit overall. Meanwhile, in Washington, a federal appeals court will hear a case from two companies that are suing Trump over the use of his International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.

VOS Selections Inc, a wine and spirits importer, and Plastic Services and Products, a pipe and fittings company, are arguing that the president has “no authority to issue across-the-board worldwide tariffs without congressional approval”.

With so much in play, it is difficult to judge whether Trump’s tariff policy can be viewed as a success. Higher tariff revenues from imports as well as significant investments from the pharmaceutical industry can be seen as clear wins.

But increasing consumer costs through rising inflation, as well as tariff costs hurting US manufacturers, are clear negatives. While several framework trade deals have been announced, the real devil will of course be in the detail.

Perhaps the greatest impact of the tariff policy has been the uncertainty of this new approach to trade and diplomacy. The Trump administration views trade as a zero-sum game. If one side is winning, the other side must be losing.

This view of international trade harks back to mercantilism, an economic system that predates capitalism. Adam Smith and David Riccardo, the founders of capitalist theory, advocated for free trade. They argued that if countries focused on what they were good at making, then both sides could benefit – a so called positive-sum game.

This approach has dominated global trade since the post-war period. Since then, the US has become the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. By creating and the institutions of global trade (the IMF, World Bank and World Trade Organization), the US has advanced its interests – and American-based multinationals dominate, especially in areas such as technology.

But China and others now threaten this US domination, and Trump is tearing up the economic rulebook. But economic theory clearly positions tariffs as the wrong policy path for the US to assert and further its economic interests in the medium to long term. That’s why Trump’s course of action remains such a gamble.

Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

Conor O’Kane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Trump’s new tariff regime has begun after months of chaos and uncertainty. But is his approach working? – https://theconversation.com/trumps-new-tariff-regime-has-begun-after-months-of-chaos-and-uncertainty-but-is-his-approach-working-262448

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ming Gao, Research Fellow of East Asia Studies, Lund University

China’s central government introduced a childcare subsidy on July 28 that will provide families with 3,000 yuan (around £312) a year for each child under the age of three. The announcement came days after plans were unveiled to roll out free preschool education across the country.

These developments mark a shift from previous years, when the government largely left the issue of addressing China’s declining birth rate to local authorities. Many of those efforts, which range from cash incentives to housing subsidies, have made little difference. By stepping in directly, Beijing has signalled that it sees the situation as urgent.

Fewer Chinese women are choosing to have children, and more young people are delaying or opting out of marriage. This has contributed to a situation where China’s population shrank for a third consecutive year in 2024. An ageing population and shrinking workforce pose long-term challenges for China’s economic growth, as well as its healthcare and pension systems.

Before the central government’s recent roll-out, regions in China had already been experimenting with policies to increase birth rates. These include one-time payouts for second or third children, monthly allowances and housing and job training subsidies.

One of the most eye-catching local policies came from Hohhot, the capital city of Inner Mongolia province. In March 2025, the authorities there began offering families up to 100,000 yuan (£10,400) for having a second and third child, paid annually until the children turn ten.

The authorities in some other cities, including eastern China’s Hangzhou, have offered childcare vouchers or subsidies for daycare. Policies like these have seen the number of births increase slightly in a few regions. But uptake is generally low and none have managed to change the national picture.

There are several reasons why incentive-based policies have not moved the needle. First, the subsidies are generally small – often equivalent to just a few hundred US dollars. This barely makes a dent in the cost of raising a child in urban China.

China ranks among the most expensive countries in the world for child-rearing, surpassing the US and Japan. In fact, a 2024 report by the Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute found that the average cost of raising a child in China until the age of 18 is 538,000 yuan (£59,275). This is more than 6.3 times as high as China’s GDP per capita.

The burden is so widely felt that people in China jokingly refer to children as tunjinshou, which translates to “gold-devouring beasts”.

Second, the incentives largely don’t address deeper issues. These include expensive housing, intense education pressures, childcare shortages and some workplaces that penalise women for taking time off. Many Chinese women fear being pushed out of their jobs simply for having kids.

Some local authorities have attempted to tackle the structural realities that make having and raising children in China difficult, and have enjoyed some success. In Tianmen, for example, parents of a third child can claim US$16,500 (£12,500) off a new home.

However, these policies are confined to specific districts and villages or are limited to select groups. Support remains fragmented and insufficient, while the prospects of scaling these piecemeal initiatives nationwide are slim.

Third, gender inequality in China is still deeply entrenched. Women carry most of the childcare and housework burden, with parental leave policies reflecting that imbalance. While mothers are allowed between 128 to 158 days of maternity leave, fathers receive only a handful – varying slightly by province. Despite public calls for equal parental leave, major legal changes seem far off.

These factors have together given rise to a situation where, as in east Asia more broadly, many young people in China simply are not interested in marrying or having children.

According to one online survey from 2022, around 90% of respondents in China said they wouldn’t consider having more children even if they were offered an annual subsidy of 12,000 yuan (£1,250) – far more than the recently announced 3,000 yuan subsidy.

Is Beijing too late?

The new measures show that Beijing is taking China’s declining birth rate seriously. But it might be too late. Fertility decline is hard to reverse, with research showing that social norms are difficult to snap back once they shift away from having children.

South Korea has spent decades offering its citizens generous subsidies, housing support and extended parental leave. Yet, despite a recent uptick, its birth rate has remained among the lowest in the world.

Projections by the UN paint a stark picture. China’s population is expected to drop by 204 million people between 2024 and 2054. It could lose 786 million people by the end of the century, returning its population to levels last seen in the 1950s.

Still, the recent announcements are significant. They are the first time the central government has directly used fiscal tools to encourage births, and reflect a consensus that lowering the cost of preschool education can help boost fertility. This sets a precedent and, if urgency keeps rising, the size and scope of support may increase as well.

However, if China hopes to turn things around, it will need more than cash. Parenting must be made truly viable and even desirable. Alongside financial aid and free preschool, families need time and labour support.

This also means confronting cultural expectations. Raising a child shouldn’t be seen as a woman’s job alone. A real cultural shift is needed – one that treats parenting as a shared responsibility.

My generation, which was born under the one-child policy, grew up in a time where siblings were heavily fined. I was one of them. But, just as fines didn’t stop all of those who wanted more children, cash rewards will not easily convince the many who don’t.

Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

Ming Gao receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. This research was produced with support from the Swedish Research Council grant “Moved Apart” (nr. 2022-01864). Ming Gao is a member of Lund University Profile Area: Human Rights.

– ref. What will it take for China to arrest its declining birth rate? – https://theconversation.com/what-will-it-take-for-china-to-arrest-its-declining-birth-rate-261717

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ioannis Costas Batlle, Senior Lecturer in Education, University of Bath

School holidays are underway across the UK. But while young people might be getting a break from the classroom and having a chance to spend more time on their hobbies, they are still learning – whether they’re playing video games, painting toy soldiers or out on their bike.

Learning doesn’t just happen at school, college, or university. For Danish learning expert Knud Illeris, any process not caused by biological maturation (for instance, growing from a baby into a toddler) counts as learning. Learning is both inevitable and ubiquitous: it is part of being alive. We cannot “not learn”.

We can chunk the enormity of what learning is into smaller digestible portions. These three portions (called learning contexts) are formal learning, non-formal learning and informal learning. We can think of them as an iceberg, with some parts visible and others hidden below the water.

Different contexts

Formal learning is the very tip of the iceberg. This aims to intentionally teach someone something. It is provided by an education or training organisation that will give you a certificate or diploma to show what you have learned. Schools, colleges and universities are examples of formal learning contexts.

Non-formal learning extends beneath the iceberg’s tip but remains above the water level. Like formal learning, it is learning as the result of some kind of teaching. However, non-formal learning is not necessarily provided by an education organisation, nor is it necessarily recognised with a certificate or diploma. Music lessons, sports clubs, cooking classes, developing skills at work, or museum tours all count as non-formal learning.

Beneath non-formal learning, shrouded under the sea, is the gargantuan base of the iceberg: informal learning. Unlike formal and non-formal learning, informal learning is generally unintentional, unplanned and unconscious. This could be absorbing social norms, such as how to greet someone you don’t know, or unexpectedly learning new words by listening to podcasts.

It’s a widely accepted assumption among academics that most of the learning we do is informal. And it makes sense when you think about how much young people’s development is unconscious and unplanned. For example, while being taught formally in school classrooms, they simultaneously informally learn values such as what it means to be – and behave like – a “good student”.

The iceberg illustrates why we often think of learning in a narrow way. We overvalue what is easily recognisable, such as the schooling that leads to an exam result. And we undervalue the much larger, but comparatively less visible remainder of the iceberg: non-formal and informal learning, such as through hobbies.

Young people, in particular, may overvalue formal learning for two reasons. First, it is tangible. It features physical buildings – schools, colleges and universities – where young people go almost every day to learn. In turn, they aim to leave these buildings with qualifications that “prove” what they have learned.

Second, even though across our lifespans we spend a tiny fraction in formal learning contexts compared to non-formal and informal ones, that tiny amount is disproportionately weighted towards our youth. Children and teenagers spend a huge amount of time being formally educated.

Learning through hobbies

To encourage young people to flourish as learners, we need to help them value non-formal and informal learning contexts. Hobbies are great for this. Hobbies are serious leisure activities which young people find interesting and fulfilling. They are serious because hobbies require perseverance to gain experience, a skillset and a knowledge base.

Whenever someone intentionally teaches a young person something hobby-related, that counts as non-formal learning. For instance, a coach explaining how to bounce a basketball, a music teacher describing how to hold a drumstick, or a friend explaining the rules to a board game.

Hobbies are equally infused with informal, unplanned and often unconscious learning. Playing video games inadvertently develops eye-hand coordination and cognitive function (storing and processing information). Stamp collecting can foster attention to detail. Skateboarding can improve resilience in the face of failure.

Part of the reason young people’s non-formal and informal hobby-related learning above is so difficult to recognise is because it is rarely described as “learning”. Instead, they “play” music and videogames; they “do” skateboarding and drawing.

Though play is one of the best ways young people learn, both young people and the adults in their lives may undervalue its impact. While adults may assume there is no relationship between play and learning, teenagers may perceive play as childish.

Too many young people think they are “bad learners” because they struggle in formal learning. However, I bet they are extraordinary learners when it comes to their hobbies. We simply need to help them recognise the value of non-formal and informal learning.

Ioannis Costas Batlle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. School’s out – but as young people paint, skateboard and play with their friends, they’re still learning – https://theconversation.com/schools-out-but-as-young-people-paint-skateboard-and-play-with-their-friends-theyre-still-learning-261125

Source: ForeignAffairs4

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Shashi Kant Yadav, Lecturer, Northumbria University, Newcastle

A small coastal community in Kivalina, Alaska sued several major oil and gas companies, including Exxon Mobil, in 2008. Local representatives argued that greenhouse gas emissions from these companies were contributing to the erosion of the coastline and causing irreversible damage to their village by heating the climate.

But the US Court of Appeals dismissed the claim, citing a lack of evidence linking the corporate emissions with coastal erosion.

In France, 2024, climate campaigners filed a criminal complaint against the major shareholders and the board of directors of TotalEnergies. They alleged that fossil fuels extracted by the company produced emissions that caused floods and storms that damaged property and irreversibly depleted biodiversity.

Despite acknowledging damage related to climate change generally, the Parisian criminal court also dismissed the case. Again, it said there was insufficient evidence to link the activities of TotalEnergies and damage from extreme weather.

Between 2008 and 2024, significant advances were made in climate science that enable us to understand how specific activities affect the climate, and contribute to wildfires, extreme heat and flash floods. The science linking these disasters to fossil fuel giants remains insufficient in the eyes of courts, however.

That’s because climate attribution science generally fails to meet the necessary standard of legal evidence to assign liability. For example, a recent advisory opinion published by the International Court of Justice acknowledged that states have a responsibility to address climate change, and that it is possible to establish a link between a state’s wrongful acts or omissions and the damage resulting from climate change. Despite this, claimants still sometimes fail to prove such a link in court.

However, a new study has demonstrated a computer model that can reduce scientific uncertainty around linking emissions from a particular source to outcomes related to climate change. This end-to-end attribution model, as it is called, could strengthen legal claims against entities damaging the climate.

Tracing emissions to damages

The end-to-end attribution model uses a three-step process to assign liability for climate damage.

First, using historical emissions data from online databases such as Carbon Major, the model simulates two scenarios: one with all historical emissions (the real world), and the other where the emissions from a particular company are excluded. The difference in emissions between these two scenarios is then paired with the concomitant increase in the global temperature, which shows how much warming can be directly attributed to that company.

Using statistical methods, the model can then connect the relevant global temperature increase to changes in the intensity of heatwaves in a particular region. It could, for instance, calculate how much hotter the five hottest days of the year have become in a given year because of the company’s emissions.

The model estimates the economic impact of these intensified heatwaves. It can do this using data on the consequences of reduced productivity and crop losses for growth, for example. It calculates how much money a region lost because of the heatwaves linked to the company’s emissions and gives a dollar value for the damages.

By combining these three steps, the model traces the path from a company’s emissions to specific economic losses, theoretically making it possible to hold emitters financially accountable for climate damages.

In doing so, the study estimated that emissions from Chevron alone caused between US$791 billion (£589 billion) and US$3.6 trillion (£2.7 trillion) in heat-related economic losses globally between 1991 and 2020, and that without emissions from 111 large oil, gas and coal producers (collectively referred to as “carbon majors”) such as ExxonMobil, BP, Saudi Aramco and Gazprom, the global economy would be US$28 trillion richer.

The advantages for claimants

Climate court cases in which claimants seek to assign liability to oil and gas companies are on the rise worldwide.

About 230 lawsuits have been filed against fossil fuel giants and trade associations since 2015. More than two-thirds of these were filed between 2020 and 2024, and many are awaiting a final decision. For such cases, end-to-end attribution could be helpful.

End-to-end attribution can assist claimants in meeting the commonly used “but for” test, by demonstrating that, but for a specific company’s emissions, certain climate-related damages would not have occurred. The method can also meet other liability tests. One is called proportional liability, and it attempts to quantify the extent to which a company’s emissions contributed to increased risk or the severity of damage. This flexibility strengthens the method’s applicability across different legal systems.

The end-to-end attribution method enables claimants to connect global warming to local disasters, such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest “heat dome”. This is crucial, as climate litigation focused on single, high-impact events is usually more successful.

It is well established that emissions from companies in the US and Europe have caused significant harm which is disproportionately suffered in the global south. End-to-end attribution strengthens the evidence base for such climate justice arguments in courtrooms.

There are no established standards for how courts worldwide evaluate scientific evidence. Consequently, while the end-to-end attribution method can link fossil fuel companies and climate-related legal injuries, the courts, depending on differences between jurisdictions and the context of each case, may require higher thresholds to trigger criminal or civil liability.

Additionally, fossil fuel companies often argue that any harm caused by their activities should be weighed against the benefits their products also provide. However, the benefits of fossil fuels should not exempt companies from climate-related liability, because climate change is an existential threat.

End-to-end attribution provides a vital scientific tool for making fossil fuel companies accountable, and could reshape climate litigation globally.

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The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Climate change: new method can more accurately attribute environmental harm to individual polluters – https://theconversation.com/climate-change-new-method-can-more-accurately-attribute-environmental-harm-to-individual-polluters-256002