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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: California depends on prison labour to deal with climate disasters — Canada must avoid a similar model

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Jordan House, Assistant Professor, Labour Studies, Brock University

    As wildfires continue to burn in and around Los Angeles, the fact that many of the firefighters battling the blazes are inmates from California’s prison system has drawn significant attention in news coverage.

    While the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR) claims their fire camp program is voluntary and provides prisoners with meaningful opportunities, research demonstrates otherwise.

    Critics, including the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), argue that the program exploits incarcerated individuals, labelling it as “modern-day slavery.” One ex-prisoner described it as “involuntary servitude.”

    An inmate shares his experience fighting California wildfires (ABC News).

    The use of prison labour is particularly concerning, given Black Americans are incarcerated at nearly five times the rate of white Americans in state prisons. In 12 states, more than half of the prison population is Black.

    California prisoners are denied access to minimum wage provisions, prevented from forming labour unions and denied access to other workplace safety regulations. They’re also more likely to be injured or to die on the job than non-incarcerated firefighters. Their wages are capped at US$29.80 per day, compared to non-incarcerated firefighters, who earn up to US$358 daily, not including overtime.

    While serving in a fire crew gives prisoners the chance to shave time off of their sentences and have records expunged, neither of these benefits is guaranteed. Both are contingent on the CDCR or county jails deeming the service in a fire camp to be “successful.” This leaves prisoners vulnerable to being denied these benefits, despite risking injury or death.

    Prison labour in the Canadian context

    Some Canadian coverage of the L.A. fires has noted that provincial prisoners in British Columbia also work in a wildfire suppression program. However, little has been said about how that work relates to the larger system of prison labour in the country.

    Like their counterparts south of the border, Canadian prisoners are engaged in various forms of labour, including wildfire management, but are denied basic rights as workers.

    In 1975, Donald Griggs, then-superintendent of Ontario’s Monteith Correctional Complex, told the Globe and Mail that prison labour had been used in response to fires from time immemorial: “When a fire got bad, the jails were emptied and the men were shoved out on the fire line.”

    By the late 1960s, programs for prisoners to support wildfire suppression had become more formalized. During that time, for example, prisoners at Beaver Creek, a federal prison in Ontario, participated in regional bushfire response efforts. Working in the program offered prisoners, who were paid $1.25 an hour, a chance at some “action.”

    By the mid-1970s, some Ontario prisoners earned up to $50 a day battling wildfires. Today, however, most prisoners don’t earn anything close to those wages. Federal prisoner pay maxes out at $6.90 per day.

    In the rare situations where prisoners are relatively well-compensated, prison labour still offers employers unique benefits. Prisoners’ lack of freedom and limited ability to refuse work is touted as an advantage. Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) officials have argued that, compared to volunteer firefighters, prisoners “are always in one place and available for duty.”

    Prison labour in British Columbia

    Canada’s most prominent use of prison labour to manage wildfires is in B.C. While prisoners served in direct firefighting roles in the past, today provincial prisoners, who make between $2 and $8 per day, play a critical support role for wildfire-fighting crews by maintaining equipment and fire camps.

    Notably, all the participating prisoners have “open custody” status, having “behaved exceptionally well during previous experience on other community work crews.”

    In Canada, prisoners are supposed to work as part of their rehabilitation, not as punishment. However, the reality often prioritizes the needs of employers over the rehabilitation of prisoners. A review of the CSC’s Federal Work Release Program, which was established in 1992 and included a firefighting component, notes:

    “It is not necessary that the work be directly related to the offender’s correctional plan…work release is a very flexible program that allows correctional managers to respond to community projects and local needs for labour.”

    This is particularly concerning given that ex-prisoners often struggle to secure gainful employment upon release, despite their participation in employment programming.

    Prison labour as a response to climate disasters

    While the idea of keeping people incarcerated to maintain a labour force to fight disasters might sound like something out of science fiction, it’s not mere speculation. Responses to climate catastrophes like the L.A. fires demand huge amounts of resources and labour.

    Former U.S. vice-president Kamala Harris, as California attorney general, led a campaign to defy a U.S. Supreme Court order to reduce the state’s prison population partly because decarceration would “severely impact fire camp participation.”

    In Canada, prison labour has similarly been used in disaster responses. Most recently, CORCAN, the federal prison industry program, has been contracted to build temporary housing for people displaced by the 2024 wildfires in Jasper, Alta.

    Just as Black, Indigenous and racialized people in the U.S. are more likely to become incarcerated, these are also the populations that suffer disproportionately from the impacts of wildfires. Studies have shown that Indigenous communities in Canada are the hardest hit by wildfires, while Indigenous Peoples make up the fastest growing prison populations.

    Much like the U.S., Canada also disproportionately incarcerates Black, Indigenous and racialized people, while also depriving incarcerated labourers of access to minimum wage rights, workplace safety provisions and the right to unionize.

    The root cause of many of these disasters — climate change — is disproportionately driven by the world’s wealthiest elites. The use of prison labour to fight wildfires only further perpetuates the systemic inequalities exacerbated by climate injustice and reflects a continuation of indentured servitude.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. California depends on prison labour to deal with climate disasters — Canada must avoid a similar model – https://theconversation.com/california-depends-on-prison-labour-to-deal-with-climate-disasters-canada-must-avoid-a-similar-model-248099

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The legacy of anti-Black racism: The public health crisis of racial trauma

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ingrid Waldron, Professor, Faculty of Humanities, HOPE Chair in Peace & Health, McMaster University

    The police killing of George Floyd in 2020 in the United States was an appalling act involving a group of officers who did not place much, if any, value on the life of a Black man. In the agonizing nine minutes before he died under the knee of Derek Chauvin, Floyd cried out for air and for his mother.

    Those moments, recorded by a passerby and shared widely and repeatedly over the days that followed, shocked the consciences of many Americans and others, triggering protests across the United States and in other countries, many of them led by the Black Lives Matter movement.

    Chauvin was convicted of murder, and three other officers were convicted of other serious crimes.



    Read more:
    How to deal with the pain of racism — and become a better advocate: Don’t Call Me Resilient EP 2

    While there is now greater awareness and scrutiny of racism and violence in policing, there is also a long record of reverting to old ways. Indeed, deeply entrenched racial bias is rooted in the soul and psyche of North American society and globally.

    When we think about Black Lives Matter, we typically think of criminal justice, but the movement also started a conversation about the lingering mental health impacts of police brutality on those who experience it directly, as well as those who experience it vicariously.

    Black trauma

    The traumatizing after-effects of anti-Black racism also result from Black people’s experiences within other social structures, such as employment, education and health care.

    The trauma resulting from multiple forms of anti-Black racism has a legacy that took root during the colonial era and has endured, impacting the spiritual, emotional, psychological and mental well-being of Black people in societies harmed by colonialism, such as Canada, the U.S. and the United Kingdom.

    I am a professor and the HOPE Chair in Peace and Health in the Global Peace and Social Justice Program at McMaster University. I have been studying Black trauma for almost 20 years, and recently published a book on the subject, From the Enlightenment to Black Lives Matter: Tracing the Impacts of Racial Trauma in Black Communities from the Colonial Era to the Present.

    The book documents that since the colonial era, Black bodies have been receptacles for trauma that carry the weight of the past and the present. Black trauma is deep, complex and continuing, and has harmful impacts on the mental health of Black people. It includes the dehumanizing and lingering consequences of the slave trade, the social and economic subjugation of Black people in Jim Crow America and the racist social structures that persist there and in Canada, the U.K. and elsewhere.

    For Black people, trauma results from racist assaults to their spiritual, emotional, mental, psychological and physical well-being. When racism resides in the body in these visceral ways, it manifests as emotional pain and rage, and its lingering after-effects endure over generations.

    Public health crisis

    Addressing the public health crisis of racial trauma for Black people requires that racism be recognized as a legitimate issue in health education and training, research, clinical practice, mental health services and policy, and in the mental health system more broadly.

    It also requires that mental health professionals not only become more culturally competent, but also develop skills in structural competency.

    That means being prepared to play a role in dismantling the inequities embedded within our social structures, including addressing the impact of upstream factors (poverty, poor public infrastructure, etc.) on the mental health of Black and other marginalized populations.

    Addressing racial trauma experienced by Black people also demands an analysis that appreciates racism’s inter-generational and multifaceted features. This analysis would examine how racism not only manifests itself over generations, but also at different levels, such as through everyday interactions between people (individual racism), within institutions (institutional racism), or through cultural dominance (cultural racism).

    Challenging legacies

    Addressing racial trauma experienced by Black people also demands an analysis that appreciates racism’s inter-generational and multifaceted features.
    (Shutterstock)

    For too long, efforts to address disparities between Black and white people in education, labour, employment, health and other social structures have focused on attributing these disparities to pathologies presumed to be inherent to Black culture and Black people. Instead, these efforts must be focused on identifying, dismantling and resolving the pathologies embedded within these social structures and peeling back the systems of power that impact mental health and well-being in Black communities.

    Resolving structural pathologies that harm Black people must be accompanied by a willingness to understand and appreciate the complexities of Black life, Black trauma and Black responses to trauma that may appear maladaptive to many, but that are normal and natural responses to racism’s intergenerational, multi-faceted and multilevel manifestations.

    Finally, resolving Black trauma must involve challenging the colonial and imperial legacies that reside within psychiatry and other mental health professions.

    Ingrid Waldron receives funding from CIHR, SSHRC.

    – ref. The legacy of anti-Black racism: The public health crisis of racial trauma – https://theconversation.com/the-legacy-of-anti-black-racism-the-public-health-crisis-of-racial-trauma-246104

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Online platforms risk becoming ideological echo chambers that undermine meaningful dialogue

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Alexander Martin, PhD Student, Science and Technology Studies, York University, Canada

    The migration to Bluesky, especially after the 2024 U.S. presidential election, reflects a growing dissatisfaction with centralized platforms and their handling of political content. (Shutterstock)

    There has recently been a shift online from centralized platforms like X (formerly Twitter) to decentralized alternatives like Bluesky. In particular, many users unhappy with the politics and antics of X owner Elon Musk are moving to Bluesky.

    Users migrating from X have cited a rise in bots and hate speech as the reason for leaving the site. Journalist Cory Doctorow termed this the idea of “enshittification,” a process where platforms get worse by focusing on profit and spreading harmful content.

    Under Musk, X has seemingly shifted to promote more extreme accounts, making the platform less welcoming to others. These users are looking for more control, transparency, and less manipulation.

    However, this migration raises an important question. Is this shift towards platforms like Bluesky limiting cross-ideological conversation and increasing political polarization? If so, what does this mean for the health of democracy in the digital age?

    The migration to Bluesky, especially after the 2024 U.S. presidential election, reflects a growing dissatisfaction with centralized platforms and their handling of political content. Understanding this trend is essential, as it could shape how future political debates and movements unfold online.

    Social media and political discourse

    Social media platforms are now central to political discourse. Amid recent political movements, including Donald Trump’s rise, social media has emerged as a key player in shaping political narratives. Figures like Musk and Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg are increasingly close to Trump.

    Meta donated $1 million to Trump’s inauguration fund, as did other tech companies. Both Zuckerberg and Musk made appearances at Trump’s inauguration, signalling support for Trump’s ascent to power. This demonstrates the tech industry’s close proximity to political power and centralized social media’s potential to amplify certain political agendas.

    The shift from X to Bluesky is part of a larger trend. Left-leaning users are moving to Bluesky because of concerns over political bias and misinformation on X.

    Musk’s acquisition of X in 2022 changed its content moderation policies. This change amplified conservative voices and pushed away users who already felt marginalized. This resulted in an initial exodus to another decentralized social media site called Mastodon, where the user count surged from 3,400 to 113,400 in a single day.

    Commentators have pointed out that many users want a platform with less bias, few manipulations and more freedom of expression.

    Bluesky’s open-source, federated structure provides a space where users have more control over their online experience. This has helped Bluesky grow rapidly, with the platform gaining 2.5 million new users in just two months and seeing a 500 per cent increase in traffic following the U.S. election.

    The platform’s appeal lies in its promise of transparency and user autonomy, qualities that users increasingly value as centralized platforms like X and Meta face scrutiny over political bias and misinformation.

    Tara McGowan discusses the migration of liberals from X to Bluesky.

    May fuel more polarization

    While Bluesky offers an alternative to X’s perceived political bias, it may also deepen political polarization. Its decentralized nature gives users control over what they see, which could reinforce ideological silos.

    Research being done on Mastodon shows that this model can contribute to the democratization of social media by offering more control. As left-leaning users flock to Bluesky while right-leaning users stay on X and Meta, the divide between these groups deepens, further entrenching political silos.

    One of the main reasons for the migration to Bluesky is dissatisfaction with content moderation practices on centralized platforms like X and Meta. Under Musk’s leadership, X has scaled back content moderation and reinstated controversial accounts, raising concerns about the spread of misinformation.

    Similarly, Meta has relaxed its content guidelines by introducing community notes, similar to X. This makes it easier for harmful content to spread. With the community notes, the platform decides what content is considered factual. While this gives users more freedom, it could also enable the spread of false and misleading information.



    Read more:
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    Bluesky offers a decentralized model that gives users more control over the content they see. Users can curate their own feeds, creating a more personalized experience.

    Though this model faces challenges, like bot activity and misinformation, it moves away from algorithm-driven approach of platforms like X and Meta. In an era where users worry about bias and censorship, Bluesky’s model offers a potential solution for those seeking more transparency and control over the content they see.

    However, all misinformation threatens the integrity of public discourse. As users gravitate toward platforms that reinforce their existing beliefs, they become more vulnerable to misinformation campaigns.

    This has the potential to undermine public trust in political institutions and the democratic process. Unchecked false information could have serious consequences for democratic participation and the legitimacy of the political process.

    A threat to democracy?

    Bluesky’s decentralized model offers an alternative to traditional centralized platforms that are increasingly seen as biased or manipulative.

    However, this migration also highlights the dangers of political polarization and echo chambers. As users move to platforms that align with their beliefs, space for cross-ideological dialogue shrinks, weakening public discourse.

    This growing division could make it harder for people to have informed, open debates about important issues that matter most. Moving to decentralized platforms like Bluesky may provide more control over the content, but it still requires careful attention to how platforms shape political narratives and the future of democratic engagement.

    Alexander Martin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Online platforms risk becoming ideological echo chambers that undermine meaningful dialogue – https://theconversation.com/online-platforms-risk-becoming-ideological-echo-chambers-that-undermine-meaningful-dialogue-247982

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Jan. 27 came to be International Day of Commemoration in Memory of the Victims of the Holocaust

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Robert Jan van Pelt, Professor, School of Architecture, University of Waterloo

    When, in the late 1980s, I began my research on the architectural history of the Auschwitz death camp, Jan. 27 wasn’t marked on any official calendar as a special day of commemoration.

    Since then, as a historian who has focused on the history of the Holocaust in general and the history of Auschwitz in particular, and who has with collaborators curated the Auschwitz exhibition now showing in Toronto, I have seen changes in terms of how the Holocaust generally, and Auschwitz in particular, is publicly remembered and commemorated.

    Jan. 27 is now identified as an annual International Day of Commemoration in Memory of the Victims of the Holocaust. On Jan. 27 1945, the Red Army liberated some 7,000 remaining prisoners in Auschwitz, located in south-central Poland. How was this date chosen, and what issues or reflection might it raise?

    Poland

    With 1.1 million murdered victims — of whom one million were Jews — Auschwitz was the most murderous of the German death camps. It had already become by the mid-1970s a powerful symbol of the Holocaust.

    Yet during the Cold War, European nations commemorated the dead of the Second World War on dates that were anniversaries of the end of the war. In Poland, a profoundly Roman Catholic country, the observances of the victims of the war were held on All Saints Day or, since 1955, the Sunday closest to the Ides of April, not Jan. 27.

    In the early 1990s, the Polish government led by President Lech Walesa decided to make the 50th anniversary of the arrival of the liberating Red Army at the gates of Auschwitz into a major international commemoration in 1995.

    Seventeen heads of state, including German Federal President Roman Herzog, attended the occasion on Jan. 27, 1995. It was, in a sense, a “coming-out” of the now firmly democratic Polish Republic. At that time, Warsaw was eyeing membership of NATO and the EU, which had been formally established by means of the Maastricht Treaty two years earlier.

    In the 1995 commemoration, Jews were largely invisible — in fact, Walesa forgot to mention the Jews in his speech.

    Dates in the Hebrew calendar

    Among Jews, primarily in North America and Israel, Holocaust commemorations are typically associated with three dates in the Hebrew (lunar) calendar:

    1. The ninth day of the Jewish month of Av: Since time immemorial, Jews commemorated on this day the destruction of the First Temple (in 586 BCE) and the destruction of the Second Temple (in 70 CE).

    2. The 10th day of the Jewish month of Tevet: This day, King Nebuchadnezzar II began the siege of Jerusalem that was to lead to the destruction of the First Temple. Traditionally on this day, Jews say the prayer of the dead for family members whose date of death is unknown. As the date of death of most of the Jews murdered in the Holocaust is indeed unknown, the 10th of Tevet became quite prominent in Israel as a date of Holocaust commemoration.

    3. The 27th day of the Jewish month of Nisan: This day, established in 1953 as Yom Hashoah (Shoah Day) by the Israeli government, coincides with the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising, which is a point of great pride to Jews. Thus, Yom Hashoah was meant to commemorate not only the depth of the catastrophe, but at the same time one of the few points of light within the Holocaust.

    In American society, a custom arose in the 1980s to hold a commemorative day of the Holocaust in the period that stretches from the Sunday preceding Yom Hashoah to the Sunday following Yom Hashoah, creating a clear link with the Jewish practice. In Canada, Jews mobilized to introduce provincial days of remembrance, insisting that they would follow Jewish practice and be held on Yom Hashoah.

    Germany

    Months after the 1995 Polish commemoration, the leaders of the allied nations and Germany gathered in Berlin on May 8, 1995 to observe the 50th anniversary of the end of the Second World War. German President Herzog noted that while many Germans still remembered May 8 as a day of defeat, in fact that day had opened a door to a future of peace and co-operation in Europe.

    However, some Germans believed that it was now time to move on and stop talking about the the Nazis, the war and the Holocaust.

    Herzog decided something had to be done to force continued engagement with the Nazi past, and to shut up revisionists who stressed German victimhood. He proclaimed Jan. 27 as Day of Commemoration of the Victims of National Socialism. It was a politically astute move. He knew that in any discussion about the meaning of the Third Reich, the name “Auschwitz” was the ultimate trump card that could not be beaten.

    Sweden, U.K., EU, UN

    In 1998, Swedish Prime Minister Göran Persson declared Jan. 27 to be an official day of Holocaust Remembrance. This move was to lay the groundwork for a larger Swedish-led inter-governmental educational initiative founded to combat rising antisemitism.

    In support of this project, which lead to the Stockholm Declaration and the establishment of the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance (IHRA), the British and Italian governments adopted Jan. 27 as a day of commemoration in 1999 and 2000.

    A few years later, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia — plus Malta and Cyprus — joined the EU. Until then, it had consisted of countries that had been either stable liberal democracies since 1945, or had become such in the 1970s.

    Most of the new members had been communist-ruled. There was nervousness about the baggage they would bring — especially persistent antisemitism. On Jan. 27, 2005, the European Parliament called on the European Council, Commission and member states to make Jan. 27 European Holocaust Memorial Day, to be observed across the EU.

    The effects were profound: Aleida Assmann, a prominent historian of collective memory, observed that pan-European importance of the Jan. 27 day of commemoration since 2005 confirmed the Holocaust as a common “europäischer Gründungsmythos” or European foundation narrative

    Later in 2005, the General Assembly of the United Nations made Jan. 27 an annual International Day of Commemoration in Memory of the Victims of the Holocaust. The resolution establishing the date invoked the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and reaffirmed “that the Holocaust, which resulted in the murder of one third of the Jewish people, along with countless members of other minorities, will forever be a warning to all people of the dangers of hatred, bigotry, racism and prejudice.”

    What to think of Jan. 27?

    While deeply committed to the study of the history of Auschwitz and profoundly engaged with the commemoration of both the Holocaust in general and Auschwitz in particular, if forced to choose, I have a clear preference for Yom Hashoah over Jan. 27.

    Jan. 27 as a day of commemoration emerged from initiatives taken by non-Jews at the highest political level, without much consultation with Jews.

    A few of my now-deceased Auschwitz survivor friends told me that the entire Jan. 27 date should be cancelled as it has no or little meaning for Jews, and it certainly had no meaning for them as Auschwitz survivors, because they had been taken away from Auschwitz in a death march before the arrival of the Red Army.

    Yet now it exists, and better to work with it. All the good reasons why Auschwitz became a symbol of the Holocaust are still valid — especially the fact that it ties a very complex series of events to a real place that everyone can visit.

    But I would like to invite all who gather on Jan. 27 to remember the Holocaust to consider also its profoundly political origins. And I hope that they will decide to also attend a similar event a few months later, on Yom Hashoah.

    Robert Jan van Pelt is curator for the Auschwitz exhibit at the ROM.

    – ref. How Jan. 27 came to be International Day of Commemoration in Memory of the Victims of the Holocaust – https://theconversation.com/how-jan-27-came-to-be-international-day-of-commemoration-in-memory-of-the-victims-of-the-holocaust-248104

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada’s claim that it champions human rights is at odds with its mining practices

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Véronique Plouffe, PhD candidate in Feminist and Gender Studies, L’Université d’Ottawa/University of Ottawa

    Canada presents itself as a gender equality and human rights champion both at home and abroad. But it’s also a global leader in mining, an industry with an abysmal human rights record.

    Under the previous Conservative federal government, Canadian foreign aid was more directly aligned with mining and commercial interests. But when Liberal Justin Trudeau was elected in 2015, it appeared to signal a return to more “progressive” values.



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    The launch of the Feminist International Assistance Policy in 2017 was a powerful symbol in this direction. But despite Canadian mining companies being accused of environmental and human rights violations in various countries, the Liberal government continues to actively support mining abroad.

    Canada is a global mining powerhouse, home to almost half of the world’s publicly listed mining and mineral exploration companies.

    According to 2023 data, Canadian mining companies operate in 95 foreign countries and the value of Canadian mining assets totalled $336.7 billion. Half of Canadian foreign mining assets are located in Latin America and the Caribbean.

    Canadian mining in Peru

    Peru is a key mining partner; 71 firms operate in the country and Canada has nearly $10 billion of mining assets in the South American country. Canada has the largest number of mining exploration projects in Peru at 24, and ranks third (after the United Kingdom and Peru itself) in terms of mining exploration investments.

    At last year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Lima, Trudeau announced investments to create “a better future by focusing on a healthier planet and equal opportunities for all.” These included initiatives to support women’s and girls’ rights as well as improving access to the justice system for Indigenous and Afro-Peruvian communities.

    Trudeau also announced the creation of a Canada-Peru Dialogue of Critical Minerals and Mining Sustainability.

    But can Canada be both a human rights champion and a global mining leader? While Canada describes its mining industry as sustainable and socially responsible, human rights organizations paint a different picture.

    Backing Boluarte government

    Canadian mining companies have been accused in Peru of environmental contamination, criminalizing community leaders, land dispossession and the violation of Indigenous self-determination. Canada has also supported Peruvian mining law reforms in favour of foreign mining investment.

    Canada’s support of the current and highly unpopular Dina Boluarte government, which ousted left-wing president Pedro Castillo in 2022, points to the ongoing prioritization of mining interests over human rights, even those of Canadian citizens.

    Castillo meanwhile had proposed a plan to renegotiate mining contracts with multinational companies so that more profits stayed in Peru.

    The impact on women

    Reports have shown that women bear the brunt of mining’s negative impacts, which include gender violence, economic and food insecurity and health problems.

    Women human rights defenders confronting extractive industries also face gender-specific risks and challenges. Indigenous women are often at the forefront of resisting extractive projects.

    Despite the bold ambitions of Canada’s Feminist International Assistance Policy to promote a “more peaceful, more inclusive and more prosperous world,” critics have highlighted several weaknesses and challenges.

    Among them: insufficient funding, its instrumentalist approach (when women are used for broader economic and political goals), as well as its emphasis on neoliberal capitalist growth and the private sector.

    Some have also highlighted its lack of coherence with other policy areas, including trade and security, its support for Israel and its treatment of Indigenous women in Canada.



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    Structural causes not addressed

    My ongoing research with civil society organizations in Peru suggests that Canada is providing much-needed and highly appreciated support for women’s rights, LGTBQ+ and Indigenous women’s organizations, namely through its Women’s Voice and Leadership Program. The positive impacts of such initiatives should not be overlooked.

    But even though these projects — often short-term — may benefit some people and some organizations, they often fail to tackle the structural causes of poverty and gender inequality. They also neglect to take into account Canada’s role in creating and maintaining global inequalities through its disruptive mining activities.



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    The role of Canadian mining in the plight of Central American migrants

    For years, Canadian civil society organizations have been demanding greater accountability and regulation for Canadian overseas corporations. Despite promises to hold companies accountable for abuses abroad with the creation of the Ombudsperson for Responsible Enterprise, the Trudeau government has been criticized for failing to deliver on these pledges.

    With the possible election of a Conservative federal government in the coming months, it’s unlikely that tightening regulations for private Canadian companies operating in other countries will be a priority.

    Despite its feminist ambitions, taking a closer look at Canada’s role in countries where it has significant mining interests reveals a more complex and nuanced image of Canada in the world.

    Véronique Plouffe receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC).

    – ref. Canada’s claim that it champions human rights is at odds with its mining practices – https://theconversation.com/canadas-claim-that-it-champions-human-rights-is-at-odds-with-its-mining-practices-246757

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s ‘free speech’ vision comes at expense of press freedom

    Pacific Media Watch

    Among his first official acts on returning to the White House, President Donald Trump issued an executive order “restoring freedom of speech and ending federal censorship”.

    Implicit in this vaguely written document: the United States is done fighting mis- and disinformation online, reports the Paris-based global media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF).

    Meanwhile, far from living up to the letter or spirit of his own order, Trump is fighting battles against the American news media on multiple fronts and has pardoned at least 13 individuals convicted or charged for attacking journalists in the 6 January 2021 insurrection.

    An RSF statement strongly refutes Trump’s “distorted vision of free speech, which is inherently detrimental to press freedom”.

    Trump has long been one of social media’s most prevalent spreaders of false information, and his executive order, “Restoring Freedom of Speech and Ending Federal Censorship,” is the latest in a series of victories for the propagators of disinformation online.

    Bowing to pressure from Trump, Mark Zuckerberg, whose Meta platforms are already hostile to journalism, did away with fact-checking on Facebook, which the tech mogul falsely equated to censorship while throwing fact-checking journalists under the bus.

    Trump ally Elon Musk also dismantled the meagre trust and safety safeguards in place when he took over Twitter and proceeded to arbitrarily ban journalists who were critical of him from the site.

    ‘Free speech’ isn’t ‘free of facts’
    “Free speech doesn’t mean public discourse has to be free of facts. Donald Trump and his Big Tech cronies like Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg are dismantling what few guardrails the internet had to protect the integrity of information,” said RSF’s USA executive director Clayton Weimers.

    “We cannot ignore the irony of Trump appointing himself the chief crusader for ‘free speech’ while he continues to personally attack press freedom — a pillar of the First Amendment — and has vowed to weaponise the federal government against expression he doesn’t like.

    “If Trump means what he says in his own executive order, he could start by dropping his lawsuits against news organisations.”

    Trump recently settled a lawsuit out of court with ABC News parent company Disney, but is still suing the Des Moines Register and its parent company Gannett for publishing a poll unfavourable to his campaign, and the Pulitzer Center board for awarding coverage of his 2016 campaign’s alleged ties with Russia.

    Trump should immediately drop both lawsuits and refrain from launching others while in office.

    After a campaign where he attacked the press on a daily basis, Trump has continued to berate the media and dismissed its legitimacy to critique him.

    During a press conference the day after he took office, Trump reproached NBC reporter Peter Alexander for questions about Trump’s blanket pardons of the January 6th riot participants, saying, “Just look at the numbers on the election.

    “We won this election in a landslide, because the American public is tired of people like you that are just one-sided, horrible people, in terms of crime.”

    An incoherent press freedom policy
     The executive order also flies in the face of his violent rhetoric against journalists.

    The order asserts that during the Biden administration, “the Federal government infringed on the constitutionally protected speech rights of American citizens across the United States in a manner that advanced the government’s preferred narrative about significant matters of public debate.”

    It goes on to state, “It is the policy of the United States to ensure that no Federal Government officer, employee, or agent engages in or facilitates any conduct that would unconstitutionally abridge the free speech of any American citizen.”

    This stated policy, laudable in a vacuum, even if made redundant by the First Amendment, is rendered meaningless by Trump’s explicit threats to weaponise the government against the media, which have recently included threats to revoke broadcast licenses in political retaliation, investigate news organizations that criticise him, and jail journalists who refuse to expose confidential sources.

    Instead, the policy appears designed to amplify disinformation, which benefits a President of the United States who has proven willing to spread disinformation that furthered his political interests on matters small and large.

    “If Trump is serious about his stated commitment to free speech, RSF suggests he begin by ensuring his own actions serve to protect the free press, rather than censoring or punishing media outlets,” the watchdog said.

    “The United States has seen a steady decline in its press freedom ranking in RSF’s World Press Freedom Index over the past decade to a current ranking of 55th out of 180 countries, with presidents from both parties presiding over this backslide.

    “While Trump is not entirely responsible for the present situation, his frequent attacks on the news media have no doubt contributed to the decline in trust in the media, which has been driven partly by partisan attitudes towards journalism.

    “Trump’s violent rhetoric can also contribute to real-life violence — assaults on journalists nearly doubled in 2024, when his campaign was at its apex, compared to 2023.”

    Pacific Media Watch collaborates with RSF.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Urban food gardens produce more than vegetables, they create bonds for young Capetonians – study

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Tinashe P. Kanosvamhira, Post-doctoral researcher, African Centre for Cities, University of Cape Town

    Urban farms like this one in Nouakchott, Mauritania, have many benefits. John Wessels/AFP via Getty Images)

    Urban agriculture takes many forms, among them community, school or rooftop gardens, commercial urban farms, and hydroponic or aquaponic systems. These activities have been shown to promote sustainable cities in a number of ways. They enhance local food security and foster economic opportunities through small-scale farming initiatives. They also strengthen social cohesion by creating shared spaces for collaboration and learning.

    However, evidence from some African countries (and other parts of the world) shows that very few young people are getting involved in agriculture, whether in urban, peri-urban or rural areas. Studies from Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and Nigeria show that people aged between 15 and 34 have very little interest in agriculture, whether as an educational pathway or career. They perceive farming as physically demanding, low-paying and lacking in prestige. Systemic barriers like limited access to land, capital and skills also hold young people back.

    South Africa has a higher rate of young people engaging in farming (24%) than elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. However, this number could be higher if young people better understood the benefits of a career in farming and if they had more support.

    In a recent study I explored youth-driven urban agriculture in Khayelitsha, a large urban area outside Cape Town whose residents are mostly Black, low-income earners.

    The young urban farmers I interviewed are using community gardens to grow more than vegetables. They’re also nurturing social connections, creating economic and business opportunities, and promoting environmental conservation. My findings highlight the transformative potential of youth-driven urban agriculture and how it can be a multifaceted response to urban challenges. It’s crucial that policy makers recognise the value of youth-led urban agriculture and support those doing the work.

    The research

    Khayelitsha is vibrant and bustling. But its approximately 400,000 residents have limited resources and often struggle to make a living.

    I interviewed members of two youth-led gardens. One has just two members; the other has six. All my interviewees were aged between 22 and 27. The relatively low number of interviewees is typical of qualitative research, where the emphasis is placed on depth rather than breadth. This approach allows researchers to obtain detailed, context-rich data from a small, focused group of participants.

    The first garden was founded in January 2020, just a few months before the pandemic struck. The founders wanted to tackle unemployment and food insecurity in their community. They hoped to create jobs for themselves and others, and to provide nutritional support, particularly for vulnerable groups like children with special needs.

    The second garden was established in 2014 by three childhood friends. They were inspired by one founder’s grandmother, who loved gardening. They also wanted to promote organic farming, teach people healthy eating habits, and create a self-reliant community.

    All of my interviewees were activists for food justice. This refers to efforts aimed at addressing systemic inequities in food production, distribution, and access, particularly for marginalised communities. It advocates for equitable access to nutritious, culturally appropriate food.

    One of the gardens, for instance, operates about 30 beds. It cultivates a variety of produce: beetroot, carrots, spinach, pumpkins, potatoes, radishes, peas, lettuce and herbs. 30% of its produce is donated to local community centres each month (they were unable to say how many people benefited from this arrangement). The rest is sold to support the garden financially. Its paying clients include local restaurants and chefs, and members of the community. The garden also partners with schools, hospitals and other organisations to promote healthy eating and sustainable practices.

    The second garden, which is on land belonging to a local early childhood development centre, also focuses on feeding the community, as well as engaging in food justice activism.

    Skills, resilience and connections

    The gardens also help members to develop skills. Members gain practical knowledge about sustainable agriculture, marketing and entrepreneurship, all while managing operations and planning for growth.



    Read more:
    Healthy food is hard to come by in Cape Town’s poorer areas: how community gardens can fix that

    This hands-on experience instils a sense of responsibility and gives participants valuable skills they can apply in future careers or ventures. The founder of the first garden told me his skills empowered him to seek help from his own community rather than waiting for government intervention. He approached the management of an early childhood development centre in the community to request space on their land, and this was granted.

    Social connections have been essential to the gardens’ success. Bonding capital (close ties within their networks) and bridging capital (connections beyond their immediate community) has allowed them to strengthen relationships between themselves and civil society organisations. They’ve also been able to mobilise resources, as in the case of the first garden accessing community land.

    Additionally, the gardens foster community resilience. Members host workshops and events to educate residents about healthy eating, sustainable farming and environmental stewardship.

    By donating produce to local early childhood centres, they provide direct benefits to those most in need. These efforts have transformed the gardens into safe spaces for the community.

    Broader collaboration has also been key to the gardens’ success. For instance, the second garden has worked with global organisations and networks, like the Slow Food Youth Network, to share and gain knowledge about sustainable farming practices.

    Room for growth

    My findings highlight the need for targeted support for youth-driven urban agriculture initiatives. Policy and financial backing can enable these young gardeners to expand their efforts. This in turn will allow them to provide more food to their communities, create additional jobs, and empower more young people.

    At a policy level, the government could prioritise land access for urban agriculture projects, especially in under-served communities. Cities can foster an environment for youth initiatives to thrive by allocating spaces within their planning for urban farming.



    Read more:
    Africa’s megacities threatened by heat, floods and disease – urgent action is needed to start greening and adapt to climate change

    There’s also a need for educational programmes that emphasise the value of sustainable urban agriculture, and workshops and training on entrepreneurship and sustainable farming techniques. Community organising could further empower young farmers. Finally, continued collaboration with national and international food networks would help strengthen such initiatives.

    Tinashe P. Kanosvamhira does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Urban food gardens produce more than vegetables, they create bonds for young Capetonians – study – https://theconversation.com/urban-food-gardens-produce-more-than-vegetables-they-create-bonds-for-young-capetonians-study-243500

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What France loses by closing its military bases in Africa

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Thierry Vircoulon, Coordinateur de l’Observatoire pour l’Afrique centrale et australe de l’Institut Français des Relations Internationales, membre du Groupe de Recherche sur l’Eugénisme et le Racisme, Université Paris Cité

    Senegalese president Bassirou Diomaye Faye announced on 31 December 2024 that all foreign military bases in his country would close by 2025. On the same day, the Ivorian president said France would hand over control of the Abidjan military base to his country’s army.

    These announcements followed the planned withdrawal of French forces from Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger. Researcher Thierry Vircoulon discusses the potential implications of these decisions for France.

    What advantages could France lose by withdrawing its troops from African countries?

    France’s military presence in French-speaking Africa has evolved in strategic importance over the past 65 years. Over time, the significance of this presence has diminished. By the end of the 20th century, some French military bases had been closed and the number of pre-positioned troops had reduced from 20,000 in 1970 to 6,000 in 2022.

    Military bases have been a strategic asset for France, initially securing newly independent and fragile regimes in the aftermath of independence. They also played a key role in conducting external operations. These bases served as logistical hubs that enabled French military interventions and the evacuation of French nationals during crises.

    For instance, Operation Sagittarius, which evacuated European nationals from Sudan at the start of the war in April 2023, relied on the resources of the French base in Djibouti.

    Without these logistical points, projecting military strength becomes much more challenging and, in some cases, impossible. The closure of these military bases implies the end of major French military interventions, such as Operation Licorne (2002-2015) or Barkhane (2014-2022).

    In recent years, the cost-benefit analysis of these bases has been questioned in Paris. They have become a political and strategic issue. On one hand, these bases symbolise the old post-independence security pact between Paris and the leaders of some countries, making them appear as a legacy of neocolonialism.

    On the other hand, from a strategic point of view, having a pre-positioned military presence in Africa serves little purpose when the main threats to France come from elsewhere (for instance, eastern Europe and the Middle East). As a result, the strategic value of France’s military bases in Africa has diminished in recent years.

    What impact could military withdrawal have on France’s political and diplomatic influence in its former African colonies?

    The closure of the bases would signal the end of France’s capacity to intervene – whether justified or not – in certain conflicts across Africa.

    This would weaken its influence in the region, particularly as conflicts intensify across the continent, with more and more African countries seeking security providers. Addressing, stabilising or resolving these conflicts requires a combination of diplomacy and military intervention.

    It’s important to distinguish between countries that have chosen to sever military cooperation agreements with Paris (such as Chad and Senegal) and those that have simply closed military bases but maintained the military cooperation (like Ivory Coast).

    The announcement of base closures by African leaders, rather than by Paris, symbolises a rejection of French policy. This marks a significant loss of influence for France in the countries involved.

    Could this withdrawal reduce France’s influence in managing security crises in Africa?

    As part of the informal division of security responsibilities among western nations, France has long been considered the “gendarme of Africa”.

    Between 1964 and 2014, France conducted no fewer than 52 military operations across the continent. At the start of the 21st century, it played the role of lead nation in European military interventions in Africa. Other western powers recognised France’s expertise in managing African crises. In most cases, they either supported or simply followed its policies.

    This was reflected in France’s diplomatic responsibilities within the European Union and at the United Nations. French diplomacy is well represented in the Africa division of the European External Action Service. The French delegation is tasked with drafting UN security council resolutions on Africa. The peacekeeping department at the UN is led by a French diplomat.

    The end of France’s military interventionism will have diplomatic repercussions beyond Africa. They are already being felt in Brussels, Washington and New York.

    In Niger, the United States did not follow France’s hard line stance after the coup that ousted President Mohamed Bazoum in 2023. Instead it attempted to engage with the junta. This effort ultimately failed.

    In Chad, while Paris was complacent towards the dynastic succession from Idriss Déby to his son, Berlin took a critical stance. This led to a diplomatic crisis and the expulsion of ambassadors from Chad and Germany in 2023. In Italy, prime minister Giorgia Meloni publicly criticised French policy in Africa, causing tensions between Paris and Rome.

    How will the reduction in military presence affect France’s ability to protect its economic interests, particularly in the mining and energy sectors?

    In 2023, Africa accounted for only 1.9% of France’s foreign trade, 15% of its supply of strategic minerals, and 11.6% of its oil and gas supply.

    France’s top two trading partners in sub-Saharan Africa are Nigeria and South Africa – former British colonies which have never hosted a French military base.

    Since the beginning of the century, relations between France and African countries have been marked by a clear separation between economic and military interests. France not only has diminishing economic interests in Africa, but these are concentrated in countries that do not host French military bases.

    Thierry Vircoulon is a research associate at the Institut Français des Relations Internationales and an expert on the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime.

    – ref. What France loses by closing its military bases in Africa – https://theconversation.com/what-france-loses-by-closing-its-military-bases-in-africa-247898

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South African telescope discovers a giant galaxy that’s 32 times bigger than Earth’s

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Jacinta Delhaize, Lecturer, University of Cape Town

    Inkathazo’s glowing plasma jets are shown in red and yellow. The starlight from other surrounding galaxies can be seen in the background. K.K.L Charlton (UCT), MeerKAT, HSC, CARTA, IDIA, CC BY

    You may not know it, but right now there’s a huge cosmic rave party happening far, far above our heads. The chief party goers are known as supermassive black holes. These mysterious objects can have masses several million or billion times that of the Sun and are so dense that they warp space time around them.

    As far as astronomers know, all galaxies harbour a supermassive black hole at their very centres. In some galaxies, large amounts of interstellar gas are spiralling around the supermassive black hole and getting pulled in beyond the event horizon and essentially on to the black hole. This process creates a huge amount of friction and energy, which can cause the “rave” I’m talking about – releasing huge amounts of light at many different colours and frequencies across the electromagnetic spectrum.

    In some cases, the black hole will even spew jets of plasma, millions of light-years across intergalactic space. The plasma gas is so hot that it’s essentially a soup of electrons moving close to the speed of light. These plasma jets glow at radio frequencies, so they can be seen with a radio telescope and are, aptly, named radio galaxies. In a recent episode of the astronomy podcast The Cosmic Savannah, I likened their appearance to two glow sticks (the plasma jets) poking out of a ball of sticky tack (the galaxy). Astronomers hypothesise that the plasma jets keep expanding outwards as time passes, eventually growing so large that they become giant radio galaxies.

    Millions of normally sized radio galaxies are known to science. But by 2020 only about 800 giant radio galaxies had been found, nearly 50 years since they had been initially discovered. They were considered rare. However, a new generation of radio telescopes, including South Africa’s MeerKAT, have turned this idea on its head: in the past five years about 11,000 giants have been discovered.

    MeerKAT’s newest giant radio galaxy find is extraordinary. The plasma jets of this cosmic giant span 3.3 million light-years from end to end – over 32 times the size of the Milky Way. I’m one of the lead researchers who made the discovery. We’ve nicknamed it Inkathazo, meaning “trouble” in South Africa’s isiXhosa and isiZulu languages. That’s because it’s been a bit troublesome to understand the physics behind what’s going on with Inkathazo.

    This discovery has given us a unique opportunity to study giant radio galaxies. The findings challenge existing models and suggest that we don’t yet understand much of the complicated plasma physics at play in these extreme galaxies.

    Here comes ‘trouble’

    The MeerKAT telescope is located in the Karoo region of South Africa, is made up of 64 radio dishes and is operated and managed by the South African Radio Astronomy Observatory. It’s a precursor to the Square Kilometre Array, which will, when it commences science operations around 2028, be the world’s largest telescope.

    MeerKAT has already been pivotal in uncovering some of the hidden treasures of the southern sky since it was first commissioned in 2018.

    This is the third giant radio galaxy that my collaborators and I have discovered with MeerKAT in a relatively small patch of sky near the equator, around the size of five full moons, that astronomers refer to as the “COSMOS field”. We pointed MeerKAT at COSMOS during the early stages of the most advanced surveys of distant galaxies ever conducted: the International Gigahertz Tiered Extragalactic Exploration (MIGHTEE).



    Read more:
    Discovery of two new giant radio galaxies offers fresh insights into the universe

    The MIGHTEE team, a collaboration of astronomers from around the world, and I first published the discovery of the two other giant radio galaxies in COSMOS in 2021.

    We spotted Inkathazo more recently in my own MeerKAT follow-up observations of COSMOS, as well as in the full MIGHTEE survey.

    However, Inkathazo differs from its cosmic companions in several ways. It doesn’t have the same characteristics as many other giant radio galaxies. For example, the plasma jets have an unusual shape. Rather than extending straight across from end-to-end, one of the jets is bent.

    Additionally, Inkathazo lives at the very centre of a cluster of galaxies, rather than in relative isolation, which should make it difficult for the plasma jets to grow to such enormous sizes. Its location in a cluster raises questions about the role of environmental interactions in the formation and evolution of these giant galaxies.

    A spectral age map of ‘Inkathazo’. Cyan and green show younger plasma, while purple indicates older plasma.
    K.K.L Charlton (UCT), MeerKAT, HSC, CARTA, IDIA., CC BY

    MeerKAT’s exceptional capabilities are helping us to unravel this cosmic conundrum. We’ve created some of the highest-resolution spectral maps ever made for giant radio galaxies. These maps track the age of the plasma across different parts of the galaxy, providing clues about the physical processes at work.

    The results revealed intriguing complexities in Inkathazo’s jets. Some electrons within the plasma jets receive unexpected boosts of energy. We think this may occur when the jets collide with hot gas in the voids between galaxies in a cluster. This gives us hints about what sort of plasma physics might be happening in these extreme parts of the Universe that we didn’t previously predict.

    A treasure trove

    The fact that we unveiled three giant radio galaxies by pointing MeerKAT at a single patch of sky suggests that there’s likely a huge treasure trove of these cosmic behemoths just waiting to be discovered in the southern sky. The telescope is incredibly powerful and it’s in a perfect location for this kind of research, so it’s ideally poised to uncover and learn more about giant radio galaxies in the years to come.

    Kathleen Charlton, a Master’s student at the University of Cape Town, was the lead author of the research on which this article was based.

    Jacinta Delhaize receives funding from the Africa-Oxford Initiative and the National Research Foundation.

    – ref. South African telescope discovers a giant galaxy that’s 32 times bigger than Earth’s – https://theconversation.com/south-african-telescope-discovers-a-giant-galaxy-thats-32-times-bigger-than-earths-248023

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Finding ‘Kape’: How Language Documentation helps us preserve an endangered language

    Source: The Conversation – Indonesia – By Francesco Perono Cacciafoco, Associate Professor in Linguistics, Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University

    Shiyue Wu, a member of Francesco Perono Cacciafoco’s research team at Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU), who is currently developing intensive fieldwork in Alor Island to document and preserve endangered languages, discovered and first documented Kape during a Language Documentation fieldwork in August 2024 and therefore actively contributed to this study.

    As of 2025, more than 7000 languages are spoken across the world. However, only about half of them are properly documented, leaving the rest at risk of disappearing.

    Globalisation has propelled languages such as English and Chinese into the mainstream, and they now dominate global communication.

    Parents today prefer their children learn widely-spoken languages. Meanwhile, indigenous languages, such as Copainalá Zoque in Mexico and Northern Ndebele in Zimbabwe, are not even consistently taught in schools.

    Indigenous people generally did not use writing for centuries and, therefore, their languages do not have ancient written records. This has contributed to their gradual disappearance.

    To prevent the loss of endangered languages, field linguists – or language documentarists – work to ensure that new generations have access to their cultural heritage. Their efforts reveal the vocabulary and structure of these languages and the stories and traditions embedded within them.

    My research team and I have spent over 13 years documenting endangered Papuan languages in Southeast and East Indonesia, particularly in the Alor-Pantar Archipelago, near Timor, and the Maluku Islands. One of our significant and very recent discoveries is Kape, a previously undocumented and neglected language spoken by small coastal communities in Central-Northern Alor.

    Not only is the discovery important for mapping the linguistic context of the island, but it also highlights the urgency of preserving endangered languages by employing Language Documentation methods.

    The discovery of Kape

    In August 2024, while working with our Abui consultants, Shiyue Wu, my Research Assistant at Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University, discovered a previously-ignored, presumably undocumented Papuan language from Alor, ‘Kape’.

    At the time, she was gathering information about the names and locations of ritual altars known as ‘maasang’ in the Abui area, with assistance from our main consultant and several native speakers. In Central Alor, every village has a ‘maasang’.

    During conversations about the variants in altar names across Alor languages and Abui dialects, some speakers mentioned the name of the ‘maasang’ (‘mata’) in Kape—a language previously unrecorded and overlooked in linguistic documentation.

    ‘Kape’ translates to ‘rope’, symbolising how the language connects its speakers across the island, from the mountains to the sea. Geographically and linguistically, it is associated with Kabola in the east and Abui and Kamang in Central Alor.

    At this stage, it is unclear whether Kape is a distinct language or a dialect of Kamang, as the two are mutually intelligible. Much of Kape’s basic lexicon (the collection of words in one language), indeed, shares cognates (related words among languages) with Kamang.

    However, Kape is spoken as the primary (native) language by the whole Kape ethnic group of Alor, and the speakers consider themselves an independent linguistic and ethnic community. This could serve as an element for regarding Kape as a language.

    Kape also shows connections with Suboo, Tiyei, and Adang, other Papuan languages from Alor Island. The speakers, known as ‘Kafel’ in Abui, are multilingual, fluent, to some extent, in Kape, Kamang, Bahasa Indonesia, Alor Malay, and, sometimes, Abui.

    So far, no historical records have been found for Kape, though archival research may reveal more about its origins. Based on its typology and lexical characteristics, Kape appears as ancient as other languages spoken in Alor. Like many Papuan languages, it is critically endangered and requires urgent documentation to preserve its legacy.

    Documenting languages: An ongoing challenge

    Language Documentation aims to reconstruct the unwritten history of indigenous peoples and to guarantee the future of their cultures and languages. This is accomplished by preserving endangered, scarcely documented or entirely undocumented languages in disadvantaged and remote areas.

    External sources, like diaries by missionaries and documentation produced by colonisers, can help reconstruct some historical events. However, they are insufficient for providing reliable linguistic data since the authors were not linguists.

    My research team and I document endangered languages, starting with their lexicon and grammar. Eventually, we also explore the ancient traditions and ancestral wisdom of the native speakers we work with.

    We have contributed to the documentation of several Papuan languages from Alor Island, especially Abui, Kula, and Sawila. These languages are spoken among small, sometimes dispersed communities of indigenous peoples belonging to different but related ethnic clusters.

    They communicate with each other mostly in Bahasa Indonesia and Alor Malay. This is because their local languages are almost never taught in schools and are rarely used outside their groups.

    Over time, in addition to documenting their lexicons and grammars, we worked to reconstruct their place-names and landscape names, oral traditions, foundation myths, ancestral legends and the names of plants and trees they use.

    We also explored their traditional medical practices and local ethnobotany, along with their musical culture and number systems.

    Safeguarding Kape is not just linguistically relevant. Its preservation and documentation are not just about attesting its existence – they also contribute to revitalising the language, keeping it alive, and allowing the local community to rediscover its history, knowledge, and traditions to pass down to the next generations.

    This journey has just begun, but my team and I – with the indispensable collaboration from our local consultants and native speakers – are prepared to go all the way towards its completion.

    Francesco Perono Cacciafoco received funding from Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU): Research Development Fund (RDF) Grant, “Place Names and Cultural Identity: Toponyms and Their Diachronic Evolution among the Kula People from Alor Island”, Grant Number: RDF-23-01-014, School of Humanities and Social Sciences (HSS), Xi’an Jiaotong-Liverpool University (XJTLU), Suzhou (Jiangsu), China, 2024-2025.

    – ref. Finding ‘Kape’: How Language Documentation helps us preserve an endangered language – https://theconversation.com/finding-kape-how-language-documentation-helps-us-preserve-an-endangered-language-247465

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: No, America’s battery plant boom isn’t going bust – construction is on track for the biggest factories, with thousands of jobs planned

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By James Morton Turner, Professor of Environmental Studies, Wellesley College

    Workers install battery packs in a BMW X5 in South Carolina. A new battery plant under construction nearby will supply BMW factories. BMW

    The United States is in the midst of the biggest boom in clean energy manufacturing investments in history, spurred by laws like the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act and the Inflation Reduction Act.

    These laws have leveraged billions of dollars in government support to drive private sector investments in clean energy supply chains across the country.

    For several years, one of us, Jay Turner, and his students at Wellesley College have been tracking clean energy investments in the U.S. and sharing the data at The Big Green Machine website. That research shows that companies have announced 225 projects, totaling US$127 billion in investment, and more than 131,000 new jobs since the Inflation Reduction Act became law in 2022.

    You may have seen news stories that said these projects are at risk of failure or significant delays. In August 2024, the Financial Times reported that 40% of more than 100 projects it evaluated were delayed. These included battery manufacturing, renewable energy projects and metals and hydrogen projects, as well as semiconductor manufacturing plants. More recently, The Information, which covers the technology industry, warned that 1 in 4 companies were walking away from government-supported grants for battery investments.

    Workers assemble battery packs for electric vehicles in Spartanburg, S.C. New battery plants in the state will help move the supply chain closer to U.S. EV factories.
    BMW

    We checked up on all 23 battery cell factories announced or expanded since the Inflation Reduction Act was signed – almost all of them gigafactories, which are designed to produce over 1 gigawatt-hour of battery cell capacity. These factories have some of the largest employment potential of any project supported by the act.

    We wanted to find out if the boom in U.S.-based clean energy manufacturing is about to go bust. What we have learned is mostly reassuring.

    The biggest battery factories are on track

    While the exact investment totals are challenging to pin down, our research shows that planned capital expenditures add up to $52 billion, which would support 490 gigawatt-hours of battery manufacturing capacity per year – enough to put roughly 5 million new electric vehicles on the road.

    While not all 23 companies have announced their hiring plans, these facilities are expected to support nearly 30,000 new jobs, with projects mostly in the U.S. Southeast, Midwest and Southwest.

    We wanted to know if these projects are on track or experiencing delays or problems.

    To do that, we first reached out to local and state economic development agencies. In many instances, local and state tax incentives are supporting these projects. Where possible, we sought to confirm the project’s status through public data or formal announcements. In other instances, we looked for news stories to see if there is evidence of construction or hiring.

    Of the 23 projects, our research shows that 13 appear to be on track, with total planned capital investments in excess of $40 billion and nearly 352 gigawatt-hours per year of capacity. Importantly, these include most of the biggest projects with the largest investments and projected production.

    By our count, 77% of the total planned capital investment, 79% of the proposed jobs and 72% of the planned battery production are on track, which means that a project is likely to happen, roughly on time, and generally with their expected level of investment and employment.

    Three projects are on the bubble. These have shown progress but experienced delays in construction or financing.

    Five others show deeper signs of distress. We don’t yet have enough information to draw a conclusion on two projects.

    An example of a project that is on track is Envision AESC’s battery factory in Florence, South Carolina. Its scale has been expanded twice since it was first announced in December 2022. It is now a $3 billion investment intended to manufacture 30 gigawatt-hours of batteries annually to supply BMW’s factory in Woodruff, South Carolina.

    In early October 2024, South Carolina Secretary of Commerce Harry Lightsey conducted a tour of the Envision site and posted a video. Construction on the plant started in February 2024, and 850 workers are working six days a week to finish the 1.4 million-square-foot facility by August 2025. Once it goes into full production, the project is expected to employ 2,700 people.

    2024 election could end or accelerate the boom

    But a lot hinges on what happens in the upcoming elections.

    Our data suggests the real risk that these projects and projects like them face isn’t slow demand for electric vehicles, as some people have suggested – in fact, demand continues to climb. Nor is it local opposition, which has slowed only a few projects.

    The biggest risk is policy change. Many of these projects are counting on Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credits authorized by the Inflation Reduction Act through 2032.

    On the campaign trail, Republicans up and down the ticket are promising to repeal key Biden-led legislation, including the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes grant funding and loans to support clean energy as well as tax incentives to support domestic manufacturing.

    While full repeal of the act may be unlikely, an administration hostile to clean energy could divert its unspent funds to other purposes, slow the pace of grants or loans by slow-walking project approvals, or find other ways to make the tax incentives harder to get. While our research has focused on the battery industry, this concern extends to investments in wind and solar power too.

    So, is the big boom in U.S.-based clean energy manufacturing about to go bust? Our data is optimistic, but the politics is uncertain.

    Joshua Busby receives funding from the U.S. Department of Defense. He is affiliated with the Center for Climate and Security and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

    James Morton Turner and Nathan Jensen do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. No, America’s battery plant boom isn’t going bust – construction is on track for the biggest factories, with thousands of jobs planned – https://theconversation.com/no-americas-battery-plant-boom-isnt-going-bust-construction-is-on-track-for-the-biggest-factories-with-thousands-of-jobs-planned-242567

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ and BlinkPay to accelerate open banking in New Zealand

    Source: BNZ statements

    BNZ today announced it has joined forces with leading New Zealand open banking fintech BlinkPay.

    The investment will enable BlinkPay to accelerate and scale its innovation and product development through access to BNZ’s resources and expertise.

    With BNZ as BlinkPay’s new owner, co-founder Adrian Smith becomes the fintech’s CEO, ensuring BlinkPay retains its own leadership and decision-making, along with its entrepreneurial spirit and startup culture.

    “As a Māori-led business, we bring unique perspective to financial innovation. BNZ understands and values this – and they’re backing our vision while enabling us to retain our startup DNA,” Smith says.

    “Our kaupapa has always been about making financial services work better for all New Zealanders. BNZ’s support gives us the resources to accelerate our mission and help grow the open banking ecosystem across Aotearoa.”

    BNZ CEO Dan Huggins says the investment builds on BNZ’s established leadership in open banking.

    “BNZ has been at the forefront of open banking in New Zealand since 2018, with more than 250,000 customers already benefiting from innovative financial services enabled by BNZ’s open banking technology.

    “This represents the next phase in our journey. With BNZ supporting BlinkPay’s innovation and agility, we can accelerate the development of new products and services that will benefit all New Zealanders.

    “We’re proud to be investing in a team that has proven their ability to innovate and deliver.”The partnership will focus on developing new open banking capabilities that improve financial outcomes for consumers and businesses across Aotearoa New Zealand.

    The post BNZ and BlinkPay to accelerate open banking in New Zealand appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Republican Kimberlyn King-Hinds wins delegate race in CNMI

    By Mark Rabago, RNZ Pacific Commonwealth of the Northern Marianas correspondent

    Kimberlyn King-Hind, from the CNMI Republican Party, won the race for the CNMI’s lone non-voting delegate in the US House of Representatives on Tuesday.

    The delegate position was one of 61 races up for grabs in the 2024 CNMI general elections.

    The former Commonwealth Ports Authority chairwoman and lawyer from Tinian received 4931 votes (40.34 percent) of total ballots cast.

    Democratic Party of the Northern Mariana Islands’ candidate Edwin Propst finished second, 864 votes behind with 4067 (33.27 percent).

    Independent candidates John Oliver Gonzales, James Rayphand, and Liana Hofschneider gained 2282, 665, and 280 votes, respectively.

    Even before the results of the 2024 general elections were certified about 5.20am on Wednesday, Propst conceded defeat and congratulated King-Hinds in a social media post.

    “Congratulations to Kim King-Hinds, delegate-elect. I wish you the very best,” he wrote.

    “To my amazing committee, I cannot thank you enough for your hard work and support. To our supporters, thank you for your votes, messages of support, donations, and kindness. To Daisy and Kiana, Devin, Kaden, and Logan, I love you more than anything in this world. Thank you for always being there for me,” he added.

    Kimberlyn King-Hinds . . . congratulated by her Democratic opponent. Image: RNZ Pacific

    Other electoral results
    In other races, Senate President Edith DeLeon Guerrero, who ran as an independent, lost her Saipan seat to Representative Manny Castro of the Democratic Party, as the latter took 52.89 percent of the votes (5178) compared to the former’s 43 percent (4210).

    For Tinian, incumbent Senator Karl King-Nabors of the GOP ran unopposed and was elected in by 803 voters.

    Incumbent and longtime Senator Paul Manglona, meanwhile, lost his Senate post to fellow independent Ronnie Mendiola Calvo, 476-441.

    There was not much shakeup in the House of Representatives races, as only incumbent Vicente Camacho, a Democrat, among the incumbents lost his seat. Newcomers in the incoming lower house include Elias Rangamar, Daniel Aquino, and Raymond Palacios — all independents.

    Associate Judge Teresita Kim-Tenorio was also retained, receiving 9909 “yes” votes (84.21 percent) compared to 1858 (15.79 percent) “no” votes.

    The US territory also elected members of the CNMI Board of Education and councillors for the municipal councils for Saipan, the Northern Islands, Tinian, and Rota.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How does a jury reach a conclusion? A new SBS show painstakingly recreates details to take us behind the scenes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Xanthe Mallett, Forensic Criminologist, University of Newcastle

    SBS

    Juries are the bedrock of common law, and have been used for centuries to decide factual issues before the court.

    Jury research has for years attempted to improve our understanding of how jurors reach a conclusion, both individually and as a collective. But we have very little understanding of how each specific case is decided: in Australia, jurors are banned from discussing their deliberations outside of the jury room.

    Predicting the jury’s decision in criminal matters is impossible: the whole system remains totally opaque. This has been evident in a very high-profile case just this year, when a very surprising decision was handed down; I would love to be able to pick that one apart.

    A new show by SBS attempts to demystify the process. The Jury: Death on the Staircase follows the deliberations of 12 jurors as they listen to nine days’ worth of evidence in a real, concluded manslaughter case.

    Observing the trial, and the jury

    The names, dates, locations and images from the original case have been changed to make sure the jurors could not look up the result, and to protect the individuals involved in the real trial. These changes could, of course, alter the jury’s decision-making process.

    Actors are used to re-enact the trial, using transcripts of the original case to simulate the real trial as closely as possible. The jurors are everyday Australians who volunteered to take part in this experiment.

    The case revolves around the death of a man who was found at the bottom of a staircase, in the home he shared with his male partner.

    Other factors the jury attaches relevance to are the 20-year age gap between the deceased and the younger accused man, and the accused is Asian.

    We hear the pre-trial thoughts and motivations of the jurors, and some of the biases and prejudices start to show early on.

    As the trial unfolds, specific aspects of the accused’s personality impress different members of the jury – some finding points of commonality that encourage them to be very sympathetic, others highly sceptical of his innocence. This seems less based on the evidence being heard, and instead reflects directly the personality and life experience of the juror.

    The jurors, like a real jury, come from all walks of life, educational backgrounds, sexualities and ancestral groups. There are some big, dominant voices, as well as others who are much quieter and more circumspect.

    What surprised me while watching was that many of the impressions the jury discuss – and their interpretations of them – aren’t based on the evidence at all. They’re watching the accused, trying to get a read on his guilt or innocence from his body language, where he looks at certain times.

    None of them are body language experts, but they seem to think they can reliably extrapolate how he is feeling from observing him.

    Some of them also speculate wildly as to what could have happened, and why.
    If that’s what real jurors do, that’s worrying.

    I have some questions

    It’s hard to know how closely the producers mirrored the original case: was it a homosexual relationship, was there a large age gap, was the accused Asian?

    These factors are important, because the jury puts weight on them and hypothesises with these in mind.

    Another big question for me was how they chose the members of the jury. Was it random? If it was, they do not reflect the personalities of the original jurors and it is very clear that personality and life experience were heavily influential in each person’s response to the case.

    The question was asked by one of the jurors: what if they reach a different conclusion than the original, genuine jury? What would that mean for the accused?

    My sense was they were wondering if they found him not guilty of manslaughter, would that have any legal implication.

    The answer is no.

    It’s impossible to truly replicate a case. I would even suggest the same jury could reach a different conclusion at a different time, depending on what had happened in their lives recently and other external factors. Regardless of what result this jury reached, it could not hurt or help the real accused person.

    But it is certainly an interesting program, and will give the viewer an insight into what factors most influence jurors.

    It might also scare them slightly. We like to think juries make their decision based on the evidence put before them, but that does not appear to be the case, at least certainly not early on in the trial process.

    The jurors focused on how the accused lived their life, and judged him accordingly – both positively and negatively. The scientist in me feels that it would be great to repeat this experience, to see if the same or a different result was achieved under these, somewhat controlled conditions.

    I’d also love to see more access to real jurors, post decision: that is the only true way to gauge their thoughts and impressions as they work through a case. But as that is unlikely, this series is as close as we’ll get. It is worth a watch if you’re interested in how juries reach their – sometimes apparently inexplicable – decisions.

    The Jury: Death on the Staircase is on SBS and SBS On Demand from today.

    Xanthe Mallett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How does a jury reach a conclusion? A new SBS show painstakingly recreates details to take us behind the scenes – https://theconversation.com/how-does-a-jury-reach-a-conclusion-a-new-sbs-show-painstakingly-recreates-details-to-take-us-behind-the-scenes-242114

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: US presidential election holds high stakes for Pacific relations

    PMN Pacific Mornings

    With Election Day for one of the most consequential United States presidential races in recent history underway, Pasifika communities on both sides of the Pacific Ocean are considering how a new administration could impact US-Pacific relations.

    Roy Tongilava, a public policy professional and Pacific community advocate in the United States, hopes to see improved US-Pacific relations under either a Harris or Trump administration.

    “I’m not an expert in foreign affairs, but my hope would be that either a presidency under Harris or under Trump would continue to build those relations, to build those investments, to really help not only combat climate change but also to really aid in the Pacific development, which is inherently connected to what I believe is the Pacific Islander American experience,” he said.

    Pacific commentators Roy Tongilava (left) and Christian Malietoa-Brown . . . interviewed by Pacific Media Network’s Pacific Mornings programme. Image: PMN

    New Zealand political commentator and former chair of the National Party’s Pacific Blues group, Christian Malietoa-Brown, is backing Donald Trump in the presidential race.

    He says the Pacific is caught in a “tug-of-war” between major powers like the US and China, with Australia playing an increasingly significant role.

    “For me, I think in terms of long-term investment, Trump likes to prevent war by showing strength . . .  I think they [the US] will strategically put some investments here just because they don’t want China running around too much in this area for defence reasons.

    “Under the Biden administration, we saw record investment down this way in the Pacific region, obviously to try and push away China’s influence in the region,” Malietoa-Brown says.

    Picking a big player
    “So you have China, you have America, you have Russia, you have India that’s coming up big,” Malietoa-Brown said.

    “And if I had to pick a big player to be in charge of the world, I would pretty much stick to America as it is right now, because that’s the devil we know, rather than someone else that we don’t know. And that’s probably purely a selfish thing.”

    Tongilava agrees that the Joe Biden administration has been positive for the Pacific region in terms of investment.

    “The Biden administration has pumped record investment into the Pacific to a number of things, infrastructure, education, all of that. Ultimately, though, to try and cool off and push away China’s advances towards this region.

    “We’ve seen Vice-President Harris during her time as Vicep-President really commit to climate change as well as building relations within the Pacific region,” he said.

    Education concerns
     For Tongilava, who is part of the South Pacific Islander Organization (SPIO), a nonpartisan non-profit organisation that champions education and workforce development for Pacific youth, this election has serious implications for youth.

    “Our mission is laser focused on enhancing college access, college retention, and degree completion for Native Hawai’ian and Pacific Islander students throughout our college systems,” Tongilava said.

    “A lot of our work has focused on expanding educational opportunity and workforce development for young Pacific Islander students.

    “In terms of education, I think it is crucial that Pacific Islanders turn out today in support of the policies specifically that may hinder or create opportunity for their families and for their communities,” Tongilava said.

    He said it was crucial that Pacific Islanders vote in support of the specific policies that might hinder or create opportunities for their families and their communities.

    Tongilava is concerned about Trump’s proposal to dismantle the US Department of Education, noting that such a move would disproportionately harm communities like the Pacific Islanders, who often rely on federal support for educational programmes.

    “This raises additional questions around what role does the federal government play within our school systems here within states and at the local level. For many Pacific Islander Americans, we live in under-resourced communities,” Tongilava said.

    Republished from Pacific Media Network with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 5 Indian films from the 2024 Adelaide Film Festival that blew me away

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yanyan Hong, PhD Candidate in Communication and Media Studies, University of Adelaide

    In The Belly of a Tiger/IMDB

    This year’s Adelaide Film Festival (AFF2024) had something truly exciting laying in wait: a spotlight on Indian cinema.

    While many people are familiar with Bollywood, most don’t know about the vast film industry that exists beyond it. And this is no small market; India is currently the most populated country in the world.

    This year’s festival delivered a variety of Indian films from regions and directors that remain underrepresented. From award-winning tales, to a poetic nature documentary, to a sweet coming-of-age story from the North East, the program promises to challenge and expand our understanding of what Indian cinema can offer.

    Of all the films I saw, these five spoke to me the most.

    All We Imagine As Light

    Payal Kapadia’s Cannes Grand Prix winner, All We Imagine as Light, was the film that I’d most looked forward to – and it turned out to be as dreamlike as its title promised.

    It’s an ode to the city of Mumbai, also known as India’s “dream-making factory” (and where Bollywood is based). Mumbai is where Indians from all states and of all languages come to fulfil their dreams.

    The story follows three female nurses, Prabha (Kani Kusruti), Anu (Divya Prabha) and Parvaty (Chhaya Kadam), who come to Mumbai looking for a better life. Yet they find themselves struggling to belong in a city that refuses to embrace them.

    As Kapadia explains: “The film is about not being able to see a way out when one is surrounded by darkness […] that hope doesn’t exist if you have never seen it.”

    Kapadia’s storytelling brings a kind of realism rarely seen in popular Indian cinema – not through larger-than-life spectacle or the resplendent city skyline, but through the quiet intimacy of shared apartments, poetry booklets, dinner dates, and small joys and defeats. It is simply soulful.

    The film blends themes of female solidarity and friendship with heavier topics such as religious differences, migrant struggles, language barriers and class divides – yet it feels as gentle as rain on skin.

    While some have critiqued the film for being too slow (and I admittedly felt this at times), this is exactly how Kapadia managed to turn a city with more than 21 million people into a place that feels completely lonely.

    Second Chance

    Unlike the vibrant image of India we’re so used to – full of colour, song and lively dances – Subhadra Mahajan’s black-and-white film Second Chance is nothing short of breathtaking.

    Set in the snowy peaks of Himachal Pradesh, the film follows 25-year-old Nia (Dheera Johnson) as she retreats to her family’s Himalayan holiday home after a painful breakup and the emotional toll of taking abortion pills. Mahajan captures the stark, quiet beauty of the Himalayan landscape, where time slows down and silence seems to heal.

    The film is shot among the snow-covered Himalayan mountains.
    Adelaide Film Festival

    There, she finds unexpected companions through Bhemi and Sunny. Bhemi, the gentle 70-year-old mother-in-law of the home’s caretaker, is played with a captivating authenticity by Thakra Devi, a local resident and non-professional actress. Sunny (Kanav Thakur) is Bhemi’s playful and curious 8-year-old grandson.

    At the top of the world, Second Chance crafts a beautiful and intimate space where we are invited to see that there’s always another chance to find oneself – a chance as infinite and expansive as the snow-capped peaks themselves.

    Nocturnes

    It’s rare to see films such as Second Chance, which are made in the Himalayas. But it’s even rarer to see an Indian nature documentary such as Nocturnes. The film follows a scientist named Mansi and her indigenous assistants as they chase down thousands of Himalayan moths (particularly Hawk moths).

    Directed by Anirban Dutta and Anupama Srinivasan, Nocturnes captures the hypnotic rhythms of field study (something that particularly resonates with me as a researcher).

    Fluttering wings and insect trills create a serene soundscape. The close-ups of the moths – their textures, patterns and slight vibrating movements – are fascinating to observe – as the the wider shots of the scientists’ glowing setup in the darkened forest, which drew me in like a moth to light.

    Nocturnes is a thoughtful, meditative film that reminds us of how our destruction of the climate can impact these ancient residents of Earth. As the voiceover reminds is, “we most likely cannot survive what the moths have been through.”

    Boong

    Right from the opening scene, Boong pulled me in with unexpected laughs. The titular character Boong (Gugun Kipgen) is a schoolboy who, along with his best friend Raju (Angom Sanamatum), embarks on a risky journey along India’s militarised eastern border to bring Boong’s absent father back home.

    In one scene, the playful prankster, Boong, aims his slingshot at his school’s entryway sign.
    IMDB

    As they make their way, we’re treated to views from Manipur, India’s North East state near Myanmar, which we rarely see in mainstream Indian cinema. Boong itself tips its hat to Bollywood a few times, such as when Raju shows his excitement upon hearing the song Lungi Dance from the Bollywood blockbuster Chennai Express (2013), or when the the chief villager’s secret home cinema is adorned with Hindi film posters.

    Director Lakshmipriya Devi does a fantastic job showcasing the region’s vibrant yet complex culture. All the while, she highlights some surprising lesser-known facts, such as how Hindi films were banned in Manipur for years in the name of protecting local culture, language and the regional film industry.

    While Manipur’s cinematic potential is still largely untapped, Boong is a brilliant step.

    In the Belly of a Tiger

    Of the 23 films I saw at AFF2024, In the Belly of a Tiger was a precious gem that stayed with me.

    This multinational production (which just won the festival’s Feature Fiction Award) tells a heart-wrenching story of an elderly and desperately poor couple faced with an impossible choice: which one of them will go into the forest to be eaten by a tiger so the other can receive government compensation?

    It’s a deeply spiritual and painfully pragmatic exploration of power, sacrifice, love and hope.

    The symbolism of the film’s poster hints at its larger themes. Just as Hindu mythology posits the universe emerged from Lord Vishnu’s navel, unfolding like the petals of a lotus, we see how fate, too, blossoms unevenly.

    The film’s poster signposts some of its larger themes.
    IMDB

    In the film, a poor family in a remote village longs for a better life in the next world, holding tightly to memories of young, innocent love.

    Shooting in Hindi, and featuring mostly non-professional actors, In the Belly of a Tiger is both authentic and ambitious. Indian director and cinematographer Jatla Siddhartha collaborated with some of the biggest names in cinema to bring the story to life, including multiple Oscar-winning sound designer Resul Pookutty (who also worked on Slumdog Millionaire).

    The music is composed by Japan’s Umebayashi Shigeru, known for his work on Wong Kar-wai’s In the Mood for Love (2000) and The Grandmaster (2013). Shigeru’s melodies bring an emotional and magical tone to what is, at its heart, a truly Indian story.

    More dreams to share

    The films I’ve highlighted here represent some of the most exciting and thought-provoking works coming out of India today.

    While the Mumbai-based Bollywood industry is undeniably a huge part of Indian culture, it’s only one piece of the puzzle. These films paint a far richer and more diverse portrait of India, its people, its struggles and its beauty.

    They also showcase a glorious future for Indian cinema – one which promises to carry the dreams of a nation eager to share its stories with the world.

    Yanyan Hong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 5 Indian films from the 2024 Adelaide Film Festival that blew me away – https://theconversation.com/5-indian-films-from-the-2024-adelaide-film-festival-that-blew-me-away-242118

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is ‘ballot curing’? Election expert explains the method for fixing errors made when voters cast their ballots

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Paul Gronke, Professor of Political Science and Director, Elections & Voting Infomation Center, Reed College

    An imperfect signature on an absentee ballot can necessitate ballot ‘curing,’ when election workers verify the voter’s identity. Bill Oxford/iStock via Getty

    Most Americans used to vote on Election Day, and a small percentage of voters cast their ballots as absentee voters through the mail. That changed starting in the late 1970s, when some states began to allow no-excuse absentee voting and early in-person voting. Many more states chose to add these methods after the 2000 election, and by 2022, 60% of votes were cast in person at a polling place on Election Day, 21% were cast by mail and 19% were cast early in-person.

    In the 2020 election, many states accelerated the shift already underway to voting by mail to keep people safe from contracting COVID-19. Mail ballots were the dominant method of return that year: 43% of ballots were voted by mail, 31% on Election Day and 26% early in-person. Voting by mail remains the second-most common method of returning ballots and will continue to grow – though it may never reach the level of 2020.

    This rise in usage has created an issue that wasn’t seen much before: The need to “fix” a ballot where, due to a variety of reasons, the identity of the voter who cast the ballot can’t be verified. This process is called ballot “curing,” and it’s how states ensure that every valid vote is counted.

    The Conversation’s politics and democracy editor, Naomi Schalit, spoke about ballot curing with Reed College political scientist Paul Gronke, founder and director of the Elections & Voting Information Center, who studies early voting, election administration, public opinion and elections.

    What is ballot curing?

    Ballot curing is a process that is allowed in some states that, if a ballot has been rejected or challenged because the signature didn’t match or a copy of an ID needed to be included, then the voter has an opportunity to come in within a limited period of time and cure that problem. They can, for example, come in and provide an updated or corrected signature – the most common problem – or provide the required identification.

    An election worker curing a defective ballot cast in the 2024 presidential primary in Provo, Utah, on March 5.
    George Frey/AFP via Getty

    Can that process happen after Election Day?

    The process is triggered when an election office receives a ballot and identifies a problem that falls within the scope of the law and can be cured. As with seemingly everything in American elections, the deadlines and the window vary by state. Some states provide a quite lengthy period after the election. In Oregon, for example, the law provides a window of up to the 21st day after the election. In other states, it’s pretty narrow. In Michigan, it’s the third day after the election. In many but not all states, it’s tied to the deadline for certification of the vote.

    So the idea is that everybody should have the opportunity to have their vote count.

    I would agree with that. The idea is that we want to give everyone an opportunity to be represented. No one should be disenfranchised because of something relatively innocuous, like their signature doesn’t match, or when their ballot was being transported, it was humid or it rained, or something happened that meant the signature can’t be verified, or they forgot to include a copy of necessary identification. These are certainly not reasons why you would want someone to be disenfranchised.

    The Nevada Secretary of State said told a CNN reporter on Nov. 5, 2024, that the state is seeing a surge in ballots with signature problems, many from young voters. As The Wall Street Journal reported, 12,939 ballots have been cured successfully, and 13,906 ballots remain to be cured. “This is an opportunity, probably their first time they’ve had to really use an official signature,” Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar told CNN, “and what’s on their driver’s license, what’s on their voter registration form and what’s on their ballot is a little bit different.” What’s going on here?

    Young people these days – really, anyone under 40 – did not learn cursive when they were in grammar school. Why is that relevant in an election? Because there are clear patterns that people of a certain generation didn’t sign checks and were not sort-of trained in what election officials describe as writing their “formal signatures.” We also know that as people age, or suffer certain kinds of injuries, their signatures can change. And sometimes, people are just in a rush and don’t sign carefully.

    Are there problems with how election officials in different states handle ballots that need to be cured?

    In 2020, there were these major changes to our election system in order to adapt to provide a safe and secure voting environment during the pandemic. Many states ramped up vote-by-mail for the first time. What we saw in 2020 was that there were laws and procedures that fell out of sync with how people were voting. In some states, they mailed ballots to all eligible voters, yet they had laws that said you can’t begin the process of counting absentee ballots until the day of the election. That led to some slow counts in 2020 and opened up a window for charges of malfeasance, even though all that was happening was that officials were working through these piles of mail ballots.

    Since then, many states have improved their laws and brought them in sync with voter behavior. For example, many more now allow election officials to begin the process of processing mail ballots – checking signatures, opening envelopes, preparing to scan – before Election Day. That should improve the speed of ballot counting in 2024.

    Volunteers inform a voter in Nevada that a ballot mailed from his address has a discrepancy that must be fixed, or ‘cured,’ for it to be counted.
    David Becker for The Washington Post via Getty Images

    But there are still some places that could improve. I will highlight Michigan as an example of a place where I’m a little bit concerned, and I’ve heard this also from Michigan officials. Michigan law says the county clerk shall notify the voter of the ballot deficiency by “telephone, email, or text message, if available.” If neither a phone nor email is available, the clerk uses U.S. mail. The voter may cure the ballot by filling out a cure form and returning it in person, electronically or by mail, but the cured ballot has to arrive back at the clerk’s office by 5 p.m. on the Friday following the election – that’s only three days. That’s really not much time!

    Imagine a number of new voters casting ballots by mail in Ann Arbor, in Washtenaw County, and they vote by mail but turn it in at the last minute. And if there’s a problem with their ballot, then election officials have to generate some communications to them, and maybe they don’t have their cellphone, or the voter isn’t immediately responsive to email, and the whole process has to be completed in three days.

    I have spoken to some local officials in Michigan who think that needs to be changed because the rate of voting by mail in Michigan is so high now – nearly one-third of registered voters requested an absentee ballot as of 21 days before the election, and there will be more absentee ballots requested and returned by Nov. 5.

    It’s not just Michigan. There are a number of states that have comparatively high levels of voting by mail and fairly short curing periods. I don’t know the optimal time period, but anything less than five days is asking too much of clerks and of voters, and could disenfranchise people for making an innocuous mistake.

    The way America votes in 2024 is not the way the country voted in 2000 or even the way we voted in 2016. We are in a world where one-third or more of ballots are vote-at-home ballots, and those numbers will continue to increase. Best practices include providing ample time to allow clerks to notify voters of any problems with their ballots, and voters to provide the necessary information to make sure their ballots are counted. If we can do it that way in Oregon, where I live – and Colorado, and Washington, and many other states – I’m sure other states can do it as well.

    Paul Gronke receives funding from Elections Trust Initiative and Democracy Fund. He is a member of the Advisory Board of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) and a member of the Circle of Advisors of the National Vote At Home Institute.

    – ref. What is ‘ballot curing’? Election expert explains the method for fixing errors made when voters cast their ballots – https://theconversation.com/what-is-ballot-curing-election-expert-explains-the-method-for-fixing-errors-made-when-voters-cast-their-ballots-243009

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: High Court strikes down government’s law to monitor former immigration detainees

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The High Court has struck down the Albanese government’s law enabling it to impose ankle bracelets and curfews on the more than 200 non-citizens it released from immigration detention in 2023 after  an earlier decision by the court.

    Wednesday’s decision, by a five-two majority, found the measures “punitive” and an infringement of the constitution.

    The plaintiff in the case  was a stateless Eritrean who was released from immigration detention last November. He was later charged  with six offences  for failing to comply with his monitoring and curfew conditions. The charges are  pending  in the Magistrates’ Court of Victoria.  His earlier criminal record includes a 2017 conviction for offences of burglary and causing injury.

    Legislation for the measures was rushed through parliament a year ago, in response to the release of the detainees, many of whom had serious criminal records, including for murder, rape and assault.

    During consideration of the bill, the opposition forced the government to toughen it – from providing for the measures only where needed for community safety, to saying the minister must act unless satisfied the person did not pose a risk.

    At the time constitutional experts such as Anne Twomey, from the University of Sydney,nas well as the Senate Standing Committee for the Scrutiny of Bills expressed doubts about the legislation.

    Twomey wrote: “the effects of the political bidding war to be seen as the ‘toughest’ and most punitive  towards non-citizens will make it infinitely harder for Commonwealth lawyers to defend these measures in the courts”.

    The opposition said in a statement the effect of the court decision would be that “215 dangerous non-citizen offenders including 12 murderers, 66 sex offenders, 97 people convicted of assault, 15 domestic violence perpetrators and others will be free in the community without any monitoring or curfews”.

    It said since being released, 65 of these people had been charged with new state or territory offences, with 45 remaining free in the community.

    The government should immediately bring in fresh legislation to deal with the situation, the opposition said.

    Surprisingly, the opposition did not ask the government in the House of Representatives question time what it planned to do.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. High Court strikes down government’s law to monitor former immigration detainees – https://theconversation.com/high-court-strikes-down-governments-law-to-monitor-former-immigration-detainees-243027

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Elon Musk’s flood of US election tweets may look chaotic. My data reveals an alarming strategy

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Graham, Associate Professor in Digital Media, Queensland University of Technology

    As voting booths in the United States close and the results of the presidential election trickle in, tech billionaire Elon Musk has been posting a flurry of tweets on his social media platform, X (formerly Twitter). So too has Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

    At first glance these tweets might appear chaotic and random. But if you take a closer look, you start to see an alarming strategy behind them – one that’s worth paying very close attention to in order to understand the inner workings of the campaign to return Trump to the White House.

    The strategy has two immediate aims. First, to overwhelm the information space and thereby manage attention. Second, to fuel the conspiracy theory that there is a coordinated campaign among Democrats, the media and big tech to steal this election.

    But it’s important to understand that the strategy on X is part of a master strategy of Trump’s campaign: a backup plan in case of a Trump loss, designed to encourage the public to participate in a grand re-wiring of reality via the meta-narrative of widespread voter fraud.

    Overwhelm the information space

    Musk has long been a prominent user of X, even before he became the owner, chief technology officer and executive chairman of the platform.

    But as I reported last week, since he endorsed Trump in July, engagement with his account has seen a sudden and anomalously large increase, raising suspicions as to whether he has tweaked the platform’s algorithms so his content reaches more people.

    This trend has continued in recent days.

    As well as posting on X, earlier today Musk also held a “freeform” live discussion on the platform about the election. It lasted for nearly one and a half hours. Around 1.3 million people tuned in. This is one of many live discussions he has hosted about the election over the past months, including notably with Trump.

    In an information war, everything is about attention management. Platforms are designed to maximise engagement and user attention above and beyond anything else. This core logic of social media is highly exploitable: who controls attention controls the narrative. In Australia, the “Vote No” campaign during last year’s referendum on Indigenous representation in government was a masterclass in attention management.

    By bombarding audiences, journalists, and other key stakeholders with a constant supply of allegations, rumours, conspiracy theories and unverifiable claims, Musk and the Trump campaign eat up all the oxygen of attention. When everyone is focussed on you and what you’re saying, they are distracted from what the other side is saying.

    And Musk and Trump want people to focus on the idea that the election is going to be stolen.

    Fuel the election fraud narrative

    From the beginning of the year, the narrative that the US presidential election is at risk of being defrauded has been steadily gaining steam. But in the past week leading up to election day, it has gone gangbusters.

    For example, starting on October 27, Trump started posting on X using the #TooBigtoRig hashtag. This refers to the idea that Trump will win the election by such a large margin that the result will be incontestable. Up to this point, the #TooBigToRig campaign was driven by Trump supporters. Now, Trump has officially joined – giving it the ultimate legitimacy.

    There has also been a dramatic spike over the last week in posts using similarly themed hashtags such as #ElectionFraud, #ElectionInterference, #VoterFraud and #StopTheSteal.

    Musk himself hasn’t been using these hashtags very much (although replies to him from other users are riddled with them). But he has been posting material that aligns with them. For example, earlier today he retweeted a post which claimed the electronic voting system in the US was insecure. Musk added: “Absolutely”.

    He has also falsely accused Google of encouraging Americans to vote for Democratic nominee Kamala Harris.

    And as some early results have started trickling in, Musk has posted about Trump’s odds of winning being nearly 70%.

    “The prophecy has been fulfilled,” Musk wrote.

    Participatory disinformation

    In many ways this has all the hallmarks of participatory disinformation. This concept, developed by computer scientist Kate Starbird and colleagues, explains how both ordinary people as well as politicians and influential actors become active participants in spreading false narratives.

    Unlike the top-down model of propaganda, participatory disinformation describes how grassroots activists and regular people – often with strong convictions and genuine intentions – contribute to spreading and evolving narratives that are not grounded in facts. It is a collaborative feedback loop involving both elite framing of issues and collective sensemaking and “evidence” gathering.

    Before war breaks out, there are clear signs of what’s about to unfold, even if a country publicly denies they are preparing for battle. Blood supplies, troops and weaponry are transported to the border in preparation for an invasion.

    The same thing is at play here, except the weapon is us.

    The flood of tweets by Musk and Trump, in particular, is setting the stage for a full-blown participatory disinformation campaign to undermine the election results.

    Timothy Graham receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) for his Discovery Early Career Researcher Award, ‘Combatting Coordinated Inauthentic Behaviour on Social Media’. He also receives ARC funding for the Discovery Project, ‘Understanding and combatting “Dark Political Communication”‘ (2024–2027).

    – ref. Elon Musk’s flood of US election tweets may look chaotic. My data reveals an alarming strategy – https://theconversation.com/elon-musks-flood-of-us-election-tweets-may-look-chaotic-my-data-reveals-an-alarming-strategy-243021

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Only 25% of older Queenslanders are aware of the risks heatwaves put on their health – new study

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mehak Oberai, Senior Research Assistant, Ethos Project, School of Medicine and Dentistry, Griffith University

    Los Muertos Crew/Pexels

    Parts of Australia are currently facing extreme heat, with high temperatures set to continue over the coming days.

    Though it’s unclear exactly what the upcoming summer will bring, climate change means Australian summers are getting hotter. Even this year in August we saw temperatures around 40°C in parts of the country.

    Heatwaves aren’t just uncomfortable – they can be deadly. Health emergencies related to extreme heat place significant strain on our health-care systems, with data showing increased ambulance callouts and hospital presentations during these periods.

    Although heatwaves can affect everyone, older adults are particularly at risk. But our new research has found older Queenslanders don’t necessarily believe heat poses a risk to their health. And this affects how they respond to emergency warnings.

    Older people and the heat

    Ageing brings physiological changes, including reduced ability to regulate body temperature, which can put older people at increased risk of issues such as heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

    Heat exposure can also worsen the symptoms of existing conditions, such as heart disease, lung disease or kidney disease, which are more common in older people.

    The risk is even more pronounced for older people who live in poor quality housing, are economically disadvantaged, or are socially isolated.

    A report from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare shows that, of 2,150 hospitalisations due to extreme heat between 2019 and 2022, 37% were among people aged 65 and older (who make up around 16% of the population).

    So there’s an urgent need to prioritise the health of older Australians as the country braces for more intense and prolonged heatwaves in the future.

    When the weather is hot, older people are at greater risk of health complications.
    Kleber Cordeiro/Shutterstock

    Early warning systems

    As we’ve learned more about the risks of heatwaves, there’s been an increased focus on developing population-based early warning systems. These systems play a crucial role in encouraging people to adopt heat-protective behaviours such as staying hydrated, avoiding strenuous physical activity when temperatures are high, and wearing loose or light clothing.

    Queensland is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to heatwaves. Since 2015, heatwave warnings have been part of the state’s heatwave subplan, which sets out strategies for managing and mitigating the impacts of extreme heat events.

    These warnings involve alerts about upcoming high temperatures, and advice on staying cool. They come as notifications through the Bureau of Meterology’s weather app or via media outlets or social media. However, it’s not clear whether these warnings are reaching those most at risk.

    As part of a broader project on extreme heat and older people, we surveyed 547 Queenslanders aged 65 and over to understand their perceptions of heat risks and to determine if heatwave warnings were reaching them.

    We also wanted to know what factors influence how they receive and respond to these warnings, with a view to understanding how we can improve heatwave warnings for this group.

    What we found

    Only 25% of respondents were aware of the potential consequences of heatwaves on their health. The majority of participants (80%) perceived themselves to be at lower risk compared to others of their age group. This aligns with previous heat-health research which has similarly found older adults often don’t perceive heat as a personal risk.

    While most of the sample (87%) reported having one or more chronic health conditions, 30% were unaware having a chronic health condition increased their vulnerability to heatwaves.

    Several cultural and personal factors may explain why older people don’t think heat poses a danger to them. In Australia, heat is typically seen as a normal and even positive part of life. Heat risk messages are often less urgent than warnings for other natural disasters.

    Previous research has also shown older people tend not to think heat poses a risk to their health.
    Miguel AF/Shutterstock

    We also found nearly half of respondents had not heard a heatwave warning. Of those who had, roughly half took actions to keep themselves cool.

    What stood out from our analysis was that participants’ awareness and actions in response to heatwave warnings were significantly influenced by their knowledge and perceptions of heat risks. Factors such as age, gender and education were not so important.

    Respondents who believed they were at risk were almost twice as likely to hear the warnings, and 3.6 times more likely to take heat protective actions.

    This aligns with other research that highlights the correlation between heat-health risk perception and the efficacy of heatwave warnings.

    One limitation of our research is that we conducted the survey in 2022 during and following a La Nina period, where temperatures are usually lower. So there may have been fewer heatwave warnings throughout the season, potentially reducing participants’ perceptions of heat health risks.

    What needs to change?

    With another hot summer likely ahead, we need to rethink how we communicate about heatwaves. These are more than just hot days. We need to recognise heatwaves as a serious health risk, especially for older people, and effectively communicate that risk to the public.

    This might include using primary health-care professionals such as GPs, nurses and pharmacists to share heat-health information with older patients and their family members, or developing personalised heat action plans for the summer period.

    Text message alerts from the Bureau of Meteorology, along with app notifications, could be a good idea considering some older adults may not have a smartphone or be open to using apps.

    To improve heatwave communication, we also need to explore the barriers and facilitators to heat protective behaviours. This includes considering structural factors (such as housing design), environmental factors (for example, access to shade and cool refuges), individual factors (such as financial constraints or health conditions) and social factors (such as access to family and community support).

    Strengthening communication around heatwaves and health will not only protect individual wellbeing but enhance community resilience as extreme heat continues to affect our lives.

    Mehak Oberai is a Senior Research Assistant working on Ethos project and is also a member of the AAG (Australian Association of Gerontology) Student & Early Career Working Group.

    Ella Jackman is a PhD Candidate at Griffith University and a Research Assistant for the Queensland Heat Health Community of Practice (QHHCoP) and the Ethos Project.

    Shannon Rutherford co-leads the Climate Action Beacon Griffith University funded, Queensland Heat Health Community of Practice and receives funding from Wellcome and NEMA. She is an affiliate member of the HEAL network

    Steven Baker and Zhiwei Xu do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Only 25% of older Queenslanders are aware of the risks heatwaves put on their health – new study – https://theconversation.com/only-25-of-older-queenslanders-are-aware-of-the-risks-heatwaves-put-on-their-health-new-study-238875

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election results: Trump takes first swing state of North Carolina

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    This is a rolling guide to articles and audio published by The Conversation in the immediate run-up to and aftermath of the election, with some explainers about the process. This page is updated from the top, so older references are moved down the page.

    Good morning world. The United States has made its choice. And, as of 5am Donald Trump and the Republican Party will be the happier contenders, having so far won the most electoral college votes and the first swing state of North Carolina, as well as regaining control of the Senate.

    It’s been a turbulent four months since outgoing president Joe Biden announced he was terminating his bid for a second term and the battlelines between the two candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were drawn. Soon we will know who will lead the US for the next four years.

    From here, with the help of some of the sharpest analysts of US politics, we’ll keep you updated and informed as the situation develops.

    To get an idea of the scale of the task of counting votes, take a look at the below map of the US colour-coded by poll closing times. How long the count could take is anyone’s guess at this stage. Each state has its own rules.

    Ahead of the polls closing Richard Hargy, an expert in US politics from Queen’s University Belfast, wrote a guide to the process, when the votes are counted and when we might start to see results.



    Read more:
    US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains

    Delays are baked into the process, such as Pennsylvania, which doesn’t allow votes cast before election day or ballots posted in to be counted until polls close, which was at 8pm (1am GMT).

    So we’ll just have to be patient. In the mean time, you can also read Hargy’s explainer on the “electoral college” system, which can mean that the candidate with the most votes may not win the presidency.



    Read more:
    US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    Early voting and what it might mean

    Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, believes that in a cliffhanger election, a clue to the outcome may be in the size of turnout. More than 80 million Americans voted early – around half of the total turnout in 2020 and around one-third of the eligible electorate.

    The 80 million figure takes on added significance with the recognition that it is not that distant from the 104 million who participated early in the “pandemic” election four years ago. And that 2020 ballot, with 158.4 million votes and almost 67% participation, was the largest turnout since 1900.

    Who does that favour? Probably Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Trumpists will turn out for their man come hell or high water. The large question mark has been whether potential Harris voters would sit on their hands, whether from lack of enthusiasm or dissatisfaction on issues such as Israel’s open-ended war on Gaza.

    Any prediction in this election is a risk. But it might be worth setting a marker: if turnout matches or exceeds the record set in 2020, Kamala Harris could be on the way to the White House.

    Tense moment for the US

    During the campaign there have been two assassination attempts on former president Trump as well as arson attacks on ballot boxes and ballots damaged. In Arizona the Democratic party was forced to close one of its offices after it had been shot at three times.

    Dafydd Townley, a fellow in international security at Portsmouth University, believes that there could be a reluctance to accept the result and that this could result in further disturbances. He has written about how much violence there has been during this campaign.



    Read more:
    US election: officials are issued with panic buttons as attacks on ballot boxes continue

    Dafyyd Townley comments on post-election violence.

    How race has played into the campaign

    Rhianna Garrett, PhD researcher and global coordinator of the critical mixed race studies executive board at Loughborough University, says that Trump’s campaign has been “littered with attempts to weaponise” the multiracial heritage of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.

    Much of this has been a dog-whistle attempt to stir up his own base, partly with fairly blatant appeals to latent feelings of racism, but also as a tool to position Harris as deceiving and untrustworthy by apparently blurring and shifting her own background.

    In August, not long after Harris took over the Democrat ticket from Biden, Trump appeared at the National Association of Black Journalists conference when he wrongfully claimed that Harris was changing her identity, stating: “I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black, So I don’t know. Is she Indian or is she Black?”.

    For her part, Harris’s campaign has also used her multiracial heritage to further their political agendas. On the White House website, she is described as “the first woman, the first Black American, and the first South Asian American” to hold a vice-presidential position, which has effectively attempted to position her as a winner. Harris herself has also foregrounded “race” on her campaign website. In attempt to attack Trump’s campaign, she strategically aims to promote Black and Latino men specifically, as well as women’s rights. These are key voter groups she has aimed to mobilise through identity politics.

    Trump and winning male voters

    Donald Trump widened his appeal to male voters in this election, with polling indicating that he was picking up more support from Black and Latino men, as well as more young men more widely.

    One reason for this may be that in 2024 young men are more conservative than any other group in the US. Another reason why gender has become a divisive issue is the overturning of Roe v Wade, the legal case that gave American women abortion rights.

    Read more on the gender divide in this article from Natasha Lindstaedt, a professor of government at Essex University.



    Read more:
    US election: why more men and fewer white women say they will vote for Trump

    A free speech campaign?

    Julie Posetti, professor of journalism at City St George’s, University of London, and global director of research at the International Center for Journalists, recently conducted a survey of more than 1,000 Americans on their attitudes to the press.

    Breaking down the results, they were able to build a picture of what people in the US think of targeting journalists for criticism and even abuse. You can read all about the study here.



    Read more:
    New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men

    – ref. US election results: Trump takes first swing state of North Carolina – https://theconversation.com/us-election-results-trump-takes-first-swing-state-of-north-carolina-241711

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Extreme weather has already cost vulnerable island nations US$141 billion – and 38% is attributable to climate change

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emily Wilkinson, Principal Research Fellow, ODI

    Multiverse / shutterstock

    Two years ago, when the curtain fell on the COP27 summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, developing nations on the frontline of climate change had something meaningful to celebrate.

    The creation of a new fund for responding to loss and damage was agreed after a hard-fought diplomatic effort, spearheaded by a group of small island developing states (sometimes known as the Sids). The fund would provide much needed support for climate-vulnerable nations faced with a spiralling human and financial toll from sea-level rise, extreme temperatures, droughts, wildfires, and intensifying floods and storms.

    Yet two years on, the world’s wealthiest nations – also the largest carbon emitters – are still dragging their feet. They’ve not followed up their pledges with anywhere near the finance required.

    Some nations, particularly the 39 Sids, which include places like Barbados, Grenada, Fiji and Vanuatu, are uniquely vulnerable to climate change and are already paying the price.

    Sky-high ocean temperatures created the conditions for Hurricane Beryl to develop in July this year, as the earliest-forming Category 5 hurricane on record in the Caribbean. As oceans warm up, climate science tells us that this rapid intensification is becoming more common.

    Fijians run for shelter as a cyclone approaches.
    ChameleonsEye / shutterstock

    The island nation of Fiji, best known as a tropical paradise, has experienced a frightening series of storms over recent years, linked to climate change. Cyclone Winston in 2016, one of the most intense on record, caused widespread flooding and lead to the loss of 44 lives.

    This episode reduced Fiji’s GDP growth by 1.4 percentage points. According to the Asian Development Bank, ongoing losses from climate change could reach 4% of Fiji’s annual GDP by 2100, as higher temperatures and more extreme weather hold back growth.

    This isn’t an isolated problem. Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have long battered small islands, but what is new is how often the most extreme storms and floods are happening, as well as our improved ability to measure their economic effects.

    Direct and indirect impacts

    Our latest research looked at extreme weather events affecting 35 small island developing nations. We first collected information about the direct consequences of these extreme weather events: the damaged homes, the injured people, and the bridges that must be rebuilt.

    We then looked at how these events have affected GDP growth and public finances. These changes are not felt immediately, but rather as the economy stalls, tourism dries up, and expensive recovery plans inhibit spending in other areas.

    In all, from 2000 to 2020, these direct and indirect impacts may have cost small island states a total of US$141 billion. That works out to around US$2,000 per person on average, although this figure underplays just how bad things can get in some places. Hurricane Maria in 2017 caused damage to the Caribbean island of Dominica worth more than double its entire GDP. That amounted to around US$20,000 per person, overnight. Almost a decade later, the country is still struggling with one of the largest debt burdens on earth at over 150% of GDP.

    Dominica’s lush forests were badly damaged by Hurricane Maria.
    Derek D Galon / shutterstock

    Of these huge aggregate losses across all the small island development states, around 38% are attributable to climate change. That’s according to calculations we made based on “extreme event attribution” studies, which estimate the degree to which greenhouse gas emissions influenced extreme weather events.

    What is clear is that small island economies are among the worst affected by severe weather. These island states have three to five times more climate-related loss and damage than other states, as a percentage of government revenues. That’s true even for wealthier small island states, like the Bahamas and Barbados, where loss and damage is four times greater than other high-income countries. For all small island nations, the economic impacts will increase, with “attributable” losses from extreme weather reaching US$75 billion by 2050 if global temperatures hit 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

    Our research helps us to see how far short the richer nations driving climate change are falling in their efforts to both curb emissions and to compensate the nations harmed by their failure to prevent climate change.

    Developed countries need to pay up

    One of the key discussions at the forthcoming COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, will be the “new collective quantified goal”. This is the technical name to describe how much money wealthy countries will need to contribute to help vulnerable nations to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

    That overall goal must also include a target to finance small islands and other vulnerable countries, with billions more needed per year in the new loss and damage fund. Given the extent of actual and likely losses, nothing less than ambition on the scale of a “modern Marshall Plan” for these states will do.

    In addition to this extra financing, the fund will need to work effectively to support the most climate vulnerable nations and populations when severe weather occurs. This can be done in a few ways.

    The fund could create a budget support mechanism that can help small island states and other vulnerable countries deal with loss of income and the negative effects on growth. It could make sure loss and damage funds can be released quickly, and ensure support is channelled to those who need it the most. It could also make more concessional finance available for recovery, especially for the most adversely affected sectors like agriculture and tourism.

    The world has a troubling history of missing self-imposed targets on climate finance and emissions reduction. But the stakes are ever higher now, and any target for loss and damage finance will need to be sufficient to deal with the challenges posed already by climate change, and in the years to come.

    Emily Wilkinson receives funding from the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office

    Ilan Noy, Matt Bishop, and Vikrant Panwar do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Extreme weather has already cost vulnerable island nations US$141 billion – and 38% is attributable to climate change – https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-has-already-cost-vulnerable-island-nations-us-141-billion-and-38-is-attributable-to-climate-change-242640

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Are these tiny insects the world’s most bone-idle bugs?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Gilbert, Lecturer in Zoology, University of Hull

    Dunatothrips family: two mums, two yellow babies, and, very unusually, a dad (smaller). James Gilbert, CC BY

    At less than 3mm long, you may not think Dunatothrips aneurae seem like much. And – as I have shown in a new study – you’d be absolutely right. That’s because these may be the world’s laziest insects.

    Dunatothrips live in the remote Australian outback where they bother nobody. They almost never leave their near-invisible miniature nests, built on Acacia trees from silk they extrude from their bottom. No known predators bother with Dunatothrips and their biggest threat is drying out in the heat if their nest is damaged. Pacifist vegetarians, they feed harmlessly on the plant surface, with no discernible effect on it.

    No bigger than the hyphen on your page, they belong to the thrips, which you may know as thunderbugs owing to a myth that they come out during thunderstorms. Almost everyone gets their name wrong (one thrips is a thrips, not a thrip). Some species make a nuisance of themselves as tomato pests. But for the Dunatothrips I investigated, that sounds a bit much too much like effort.

    I spent a few summers studying the social lives of these tiny insects, trying to understand their unusual habit of sometimes living alone and sometimes in groups with their sisters. I was puzzled to discover that some group members appear to do nothing. Not helping out, not breeding, nothing. Few animal societies are known where group members help no one, not even themselves.

    If the silk nest was damaged, I found, usually only one or two females inside stepped up to repair it. The remaining group members didn’t do anything. The responders’ repair efforts helped everybody, so the laggards enjoyed the benefits without raising a minuscule finger.

    I set out to investigate what these “lazy” thrips were doing. Were they like queen bees, specialising in producing eggs while others acted as workers? Other social insects have this arrangement, including many other Australian thrips.

    But no: when I dissected helpers and non-helpers I found it was the helpers
    that tended to be the ones carrying eggs.

    Maybe they were a reserve workforce, helping when others were lost, as in
    some bird societies like carrion crows. But when first responders were removed, their nestmates remained just as unhelpful as before.

    The author on a thrips collecting foray.
    James Gilbert, CC BY

    I wondered whether they were biding their time, waiting for a chance to breed later, as paper wasps do. I removed all group members except for a lazy one, gifting it a nest of its very own. They declined this opportunity as well, producing few or no eggs and taking up to five times as long to repair the nest as a helpful thrips put in the same situation.

    If the lazy non-helpers don’t even help themselves, doesn’t that make them an evolutionary paradox? Not really: while behaviour only evolves if it furthers individuals’ fitness, evolution tends to work on averages. Within a species, individuals are all different, and some are inevitably of poorer quality than others. They may carry mutations, inherit unfortunate gene combinations, experience poor environments, or all of the above. Perhaps they were jostled to the edge of the leaf as a kid.

    If life gives you lemons

    Animals in this situation will commonly make the best of a bad job. A poor quality thrips can lay only a few eggs, and can only contribute a few strands of silk to repairing a nest. She can’t build the nest she would need to raise offspring on her own. So her best option is to hang around in a group where her young can grow alongside those of others.

    It’s still a mystery why nestmates of these wastrels don’t kick them out. But it may involve their being unusually chilled out in the face of any provocation, even by dangerous intruders like their cousins Akainothrips, a new species I discovered with my colleagues. The resident Dunatothrips just stand aside.

    This pacifism may be related to how risky nestbuilding is. At any moment, out there on a leaf surface, you might fall, be blown out of the nest, or dry out in the outback sun. Given that you might die at any moment, it pays you to tolerate the presence of others who can carry on your nestbuilding work and help keep everyone’s babies alive.

    A simple evolutionary way to achieve this is to drop all aggression towards anyone, including intruders of different species. Some spiders have done this and form cooperative nurseries involving different spider species. For our lucky waster thrips, this means they get a free pass to stay in the group.

    It is also possible these bone-idle bugs may actually be helping, just in subtle ways. For example, Dunatothrips nests have rubbish dumps, so they might help by taking out the trash. In many social insects, including some thrips, workers can act as medics. Even just breathing inside the nest may raise humidity and help the group survive – cockroaches form groups at low humidity for just this reason.

    So, while non-helper Dunatothrips may be among the world’s least motivated insects, they are certainly not the least interesting. The evolutionary persistence of these laggards is helping us understand how different kinds of societies evolve.

    James Gilbert currently receives funding from UKRI (Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council). This study was funded by a Marie Curie Fellowship (2011-2014) under the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme.

    – ref. Are these tiny insects the world’s most bone-idle bugs? – https://theconversation.com/are-these-tiny-insects-the-worlds-most-bone-idle-bugs-242454

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The extreme floods which devastated Spain are hitting more often. Is Australia ready for the next one?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Conrad Wasko, ARC DECRA Fellow in Hydrology, University of Sydney

    Spain is still reeling from recent floods in the Valencia region. In some areas, a year’s worth of rain fell in a single day. Sudden torrents raced through towns and cities. Over 200 people are dead. Rapid analysis suggests daily rainfall extremes in this region and season have become twice as common over the last 75 years and become 12% more intense.

    The World Meteorological Organisation has pointed out that climate change is steadily increasing the risk of extreme floods like these. Warmer air can hold more water vapour, about 7% more per degree Celsius of warming. More moisture generally leads to more intense rainfall, and therefore more extreme floods.

    The physics of how temperature influences the atmosphere’s capacity to hold moisture has been known for close to 200 years. But we’ve learned something worrying more recently. When water vapour condenses to form rain droplets, it releases heat which can fuel stronger convection and boost updrafts of air currents in storms. This means the intensity of extreme rainfall could increase not just 7% per degree of warming, but over twice that rate.

    Last week, CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology released their biennial report on the State of the Climate, which found “heavy short-term rainfall events are becoming more intense”. Australia, the report states, has already warmed 1.5°C since national records began in 1910. In recent years, extreme rains have triggered devastating floods in New South Wales and Queensland.

    The question now is – are we prepared for these more damaging floods? This year, Australia updated the climate change section of Australia’s flood design guidance. But while this will help ensure that future infrastructure is better able to weather extreme floods, our current bridges, roads and stormwater drains have not been built to weather these increases in extreme rainfall. Similarly, our flood planning levels – used to determine where houses, offices, hospitals and so forth can be built – have generally not factored in the reality of the threat.

    More floods and more extreme

    Many of us would have learned about the water cycle in school. Water evaporates from seas and lakes before falling as rain and filling lakes and rivers, which eventually makes it back to the sea.

    Unfortunately, climate change is making this cycle more intense, as detailed in a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. Rain is more likely to fall in intense short-duration bursts which are more likely to trigger floods.

    This year alone, we have seen disastrous and deadly floods from extreme storms across the Americas, Asia and Europe. Scientific analysis has showed these floods were more severe due to human-caused climate change.

    Australia is not immune. The devastating northern New South Wales floods of 2022 took 24 lives and ravaged towns such as Lismore. These floods are the most expensive natural disaster to date in Australia, costing A$5.65 billion in damages.

    How do you prepare for worse floods?

    When urban planners set flood planning levels, or engineers begin designing a new bridge or rail line, they have to take floods into account. To do so, they will inevitably reach for the local bible, Australia’s flood design guidance.

    Before 2024, this document allowed for a 5% increase in rainfall intensity per degree of global warming, and generally applied it only to infrastructure intended for a very long lifespan. This clashed with most scientific studies on the topic both globally and in Australia, which showed much greater increases, and that these increases are already being witnessed.

    To provide better flood guidance, we and our colleagues undertook a comprehensive review of over 300 scientific papers covering climate change in Australia and extreme rainfall.

    The review proved we had been underestimating the threat of extreme rains and subsequent floods. Rain events over a 24-hour period leading to flooding are likely to increase at 8% per degree of warming, not 5%. Hourly rainfall extremes are likely increasing even faster, at 15% per degree.

    Worse, these are just the central estimates. The wide range of plausible values suggests some rain events could eclipse these. For daily or longer extreme rains, the range is 2–15%. For hourly or shorter periods, that figure is 7–28% for hourly or shorter duration.

    Over the month of February in 2022, the Lismore region had about 600–800 mm of rain – much more than a normal February, which might see closer to 150 mm on average. These floods took place with just 1.1°C of warming since the pre-industrial period. On our current path, it’s possible the world could warm another 1.5°C or more by the end of this century. If this happens, these rainfall totals could be substantially higher and more likely to cause even worse flood impacts.

    These new figures have now been included in the August update of Australia’s flood design guidance. This is good news. It means future decisions on infrastructure and planning can now be well informed by the latest science on how climate change influences flood risk.

    Over time, this will ensure essential infrastructure can be built to endure worse floods. It will affect the design and construction of everything from local stormwater drains to levees, bridges, culverts and dam spillways.

    Preparing for extreme floods is complex. Pictured: water spilling out from a manhole during Spain’s floods.
    Fernando Astasio Avila/Shutterstock

    Local councils can use it to set the height of floor levels for property development. State and federal decision-makers can use it in planning for responses to flood emergencies.

    Does it mean we can avoid disastrous floods like those in Spain and Lismore? Yes and no. We now have the knowledge and tools to adapt to the increased risk levels already arriving. Yet implementing this will be challenging. In many cases, it will require retrofitting or redesigning existing infrastructure to withstand more intense flooding.

    Climate change is no longer something we can file under “problem for the future”. It’s here already. The flood risks we face today are already substantially worse than 25 years ago, and will continue to worsen. We must accelerate how we plan for extreme, rapid rainfall creating catastrophic floods like those in Spain.

    Conrad Wasko receives funding from The University of Sydney and the Australian Research Council. Conrad has previously received funding from the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water.

    Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne, including through the Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and the Melbourne Energy Institute.

    Seth Westra is a Professor of Hydrology and Climate Risk at the University of Adelaide, Director of Research for the One Basin Cooperative Research Centre, and Chair of the Systems Cooperative. Seth receives funding from state and federal governments support decision making under hydrological or climatic uncertainty.

    – ref. The extreme floods which devastated Spain are hitting more often. Is Australia ready for the next one? – https://theconversation.com/the-extreme-floods-which-devastated-spain-are-hitting-more-often-is-australia-ready-for-the-next-one-242686

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: US elections: Cook Islands group warns of climate crisis pushback if Trump wins

    By Losirene Lacanivalu of the Cook Islands News

    The leading Cook Islands environmental lobby group says that if Donald Trump wins the United States elections — and he seemed to be on target to succeed as results were rolling in tonight — he will push back on climate change negotiations made since he was last in office.

    As voters in the US cast their votes on who would be the next president, Trump or US Vice-President Kamala Harris, the question for most Pacific Islands countries is what this will mean for them?

    “If Trump wins, it will push back on any progress that has been made in the climate change negotiations since he was last in office,” said Te Ipukarea Society’s Kelvin Passfield.

    “It won’t be good for the Pacific Islands in terms of US support for climate change. We have not heard too much on Kamala Harris’s climate policy, but she would have to be better than Trump.”

    The current President Joe Biden and his administration made some efforts to connect with Pacific leaders.

    Massey University’s Centre for Defence and Security Studies senior lecturer Dr Anna Powles said a potential win for Harris could be the fulfilment of the many “promises” made to the Pacific for climate financing, uplifting economies of the Pacific and bolstering defence security.

    Dr Powles said Pacific leaders want Harris to deliver on the Pacific Partnership Strategy, the outcomes of the two Pacific Islands-US summits in 2022 and 2023, and the many diplomatic visits undertaken during President Biden’s presidency.

    Diplomatic relationships
    The Biden administration recognised Cook Islands and Niue as sovereign and independent states and established diplomatic relationships with them.

    The Biden-Harris government had pledged to boost funding to the Green Climate Fund by US$3 billion at COP28 in the United Arab Emirates.

    Harris has said in the past that climate change is an existential threat and has also promised to “tackle the climate crisis with bold action, build a clean energy economy, advance environmental justice, and increase resilience to climate disasters”.

    Dr Powles said that delivery needed to be the focus.

    She said the US Elections would no doubt have an impact on small island nations facing climate change and intensified geopolitics.

    Dr Powles said it came as “no surprise” that countries such as New Zealand and Australia had increasingly aligned with the US, as the Biden administration had been leveraging strategic partnerships with Australia, New Zealand, and Japan since 2018.

    She said a return to Trump’s leadership could derail ongoing efforts to build security architecture in the Pacific.

    Pull back from Pacific
    There are also views that Trump would pull back from the Pacific and focus on internal matters, directly impacting his nation.

    For Trump, there is no mention of the climate crisis in his platform or Agenda47.

    This is in line with the former president’s past actions, such as withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement in 2019, citing “unfair economic burdens” placed on American workers and businesses.

    Trump has maintained his position that the climate crisis is “one of the great scams of all time”.

    Republished with permission from the Cook Islands News and RNZ Pacific.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Government to introduce urgent legislation after High Court strikes down law to monitor former immigration detainees

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The High Court has struck down the Albanese government’s law enabling it to impose ankle bracelets and curfews on the more than 200 non-citizens it released from immigration detention in 2023 after  an earlier decision by the court.

    Wednesday’s decision, by a five-two majority, found the measures “punitive” and an infringement of the constitution.

    The plaintiff in the case  was a stateless Eritrean who was released from immigration detention last November. He was later charged  with six offences  for failing to comply with his monitoring and curfew conditions. The charges are  pending  in the Magistrates’ Court of Victoria.  His earlier criminal record includes a 2017 conviction for offences of burglary and causing injury.

    Legislation for the measures was rushed through parliament a year ago, in response to the release of the detainees, many of whom had serious criminal records, including for murder, rape and assault.

    During consideration of the bill, the opposition forced the government to toughen it – from providing for the measures only where needed for community safety, to saying the minister must act unless satisfied the person did not pose a risk.

    At the time constitutional experts such as Anne Twomey, from the University of Sydney,nas well as the Senate Standing Committee for the Scrutiny of Bills expressed doubts about the legislation.

    Twomey wrote: “the effects of the political bidding war to be seen as the ‘toughest’ and most punitive  towards non-citizens will make it infinitely harder for Commonwealth lawyers to defend these measures in the courts”.

    The opposition said in a statement the effect of the court decision would be that “215 dangerous non-citizen offenders including 12 murderers, 66 sex offenders, 97 people convicted of assault, 15 domestic violence perpetrators and others will be free in the community without any monitoring or curfews”.

    It said since being released, 65 of these people had been charged with new state or territory offences, with 45 remaining free in the community.

    Minister for Home Affairs Tony Burke said regulations were being finalised for “an adjusted process” for electronic monitoring and curfews. “I will sign off on these regulations later today.”

    Burke said that on Thursday he would introduce new legislation to support the regulations. That legislation would also strengthen the government’s power to remove to third countries people whose visas had been cancelled.

    “The court decision is not the one the government wanted – but it is one the government has prepared for,” Burke said.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Government to introduce urgent legislation after High Court strikes down law to monitor former immigration detainees – https://theconversation.com/government-to-introduce-urgent-legislation-after-high-court-strikes-down-law-to-monitor-former-immigration-detainees-243027

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Independent Helen Haines says the NACC has had ‘disappointing start’, and the government is pork barrelling

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Trust in politicians is at an all-time low, not only in Australia but across the world. Now more than ever, people are demanding a higher standard for our elected officials.

    The row over flight upgrades and the Qantas lounge has reinforced distrust.

    So has the strong criticism of the head of the National Anti-Corruption Commission, Paul Brereton, in his conduct over referrals from the Robodebt royal commission. The Inspector of the NACC found Brereton, who had a conflict of interest because he knew one of the people, had not properly recused himself from the consideration of whether the NACC should investigate the referrals.

    Independent MP Helen Haines, who holds the Victorian seat of Indi, has long focused on integrity issues, and she joined us on the podcast.

    Haines, who is deputy chair of the parliamentary committee with oversight of the NACC, says the new body – which she strongly believes is surrounded by too much secrecy – has not started well:

    We are just over one year in, but I’d have to say that the National Anti-Corruption Commission has got off to a disappointing start, given the Robodebt incident and the subsequent inquiry by the Inspector.

    The [parliamentary] oversight committee will have the opportunity very soon – in a public hearing on the 22nd of November, when the Commissioner comes before us in regard to the annual report of the NACC – to ask him questions. And I certainly will be giving full consideration to what line of questioning needs to happen in that committee in order to unpack the events of the past year.

    Will that committee make a decision on whether Commissioner Brereton should be asked to resign?

    I think what happens next will be determined by what the committee unpacks in that public hearing. But I think, to be clear, that under the legislation, our committee has powers to review the performance of the Commissioner and Deputy Commissioners. So that’s what we’ll be doing.

    On grant programs, Haines says the Albanese government is pork barrelling, just as the Coalition did:

    It’s a really strong example of the two major parties and the duopoly they hold. They wouldn’t do it if it didn’t work. But there are ways that we can remedy this. I’ve put forward twice in the parliament now a piece of private member’s legislation that would bring an end to pork barrelling. It would mean that eligibility criteria and guidelines by legislation must be published before grant moneys are allocated.

    It would re-institute parliamentary oversight of these grant programs. And it would make sure that in circumstances where the department had recommended particular projects but a minister wished to make a different decision to override that, which may be quite legitimate, but that the minister would need to come into the House and explain that.

    When she is reminded one argument for a vote for an independent in her seat of Indi, when her predecessor Cathy McGowan ran, had been to make it more competitive in attracting promises, she says:

    Now I think that’s regrettable. I think, though, it’s a symptom of the cynicism that everyday citizens feel when the major parties have what they consider safe seats and what they consider marginal seats.

    I think that what I’ve learnt as a member of parliament is that we never fix the system if we remain that cynical. I think we need to say, what’s the problem here? The problem is that the major parties are using taxpayer dollars for political purposes and that, yes, you can feel angry, disappointed and, in fact, so cynical that you take the approaches, as we did in Indi, to say, well, we need to change our representation.

    I’m saying it’s no wonder people buy into that when there’s no remedy. I want to see a remedy.

    On her decision to this week to cancel her membership of the Qantas chairman’s lounge and its Virgin equivalent:

    For me, the potential or perceived conflict of interest or actual conflict of interest that may arise from holding such a membership when I’m a legislator is a risk that I’m not willing to take now.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Independent Helen Haines says the NACC has had ‘disappointing start’, and the government is pork barrelling – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-independent-helen-haines-says-the-nacc-has-had-disappointing-start-and-the-government-is-pork-barrelling-243029

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election results: Trump leads electoral college votes as Republicans regain Senate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    This is a rolling guide to articles and audio published by The Conversation in the immediate run-up to and aftermath of the election, with some explainers about the process. This page is updated from the top, so older references are moved down the page.

    Good morning world. The United States has made its choice. And, as of 5am Donald Trump and the Republican Party will be the happier contenders, having so far won the most electoral college votes and the first swing states of North Carolina and Georgia, as well as regaining control of the Senate.

    It’s been a turbulent four months since outgoing president Joe Biden announced he was terminating his bid for a second term and the battlelines between the two candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were drawn. Soon we will know who will lead the US for the next four years.

    From here, with the help of some of the sharpest analysts of US politics, we’ll keep you updated and informed as the situation develops.

    To get an idea of the scale of the task of counting votes, take a look at the below map of the US colour-coded by poll closing times. How long the count could take is anyone’s guess at this stage. Each state has its own rules.

    Ahead of the polls closing Richard Hargy, an expert in US politics from Queen’s University Belfast, wrote a guide to the process, when the votes are counted and when we might start to see results.



    Read more:
    US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains

    Delays are baked into the process, such as Pennsylvania, which doesn’t allow votes cast before election day or ballots posted in to be counted until polls close, which was at 8pm (1am GMT).

    So we’ll just have to be patient. In the mean time, you can also read Hargy’s explainer on the “electoral college” system, which can mean that the candidate with the most votes may not win the presidency.



    Read more:
    US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    Early voting and what it might mean

    Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, believes that in a cliffhanger election, a clue to the outcome may be in the size of turnout. More than 80 million Americans voted early – around half of the total turnout in 2020 and around one-third of the eligible electorate.

    The 80 million figure takes on added significance with the recognition that it is not that distant from the 104 million who participated early in the “pandemic” election four years ago. And that 2020 ballot, with 158.4 million votes and almost 67% participation, was the largest turnout since 1900.

    Who does that favour? Probably Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Trumpists will turn out for their man come hell or high water. The large question mark has been whether potential Harris voters would sit on their hands, whether from lack of enthusiasm or dissatisfaction on issues such as Israel’s open-ended war on Gaza.

    Any prediction in this election is a risk. But it might be worth setting a marker: if turnout matches or exceeds the record set in 2020, Kamala Harris could be on the way to the White House.

    Tense moment for the US

    During the campaign there have been two assassination attempts on former president Trump as well as arson attacks on ballot boxes and ballots damaged. In Arizona the Democratic party was forced to close one of its offices after it had been shot at three times.

    Dafydd Townley, a fellow in international security at Portsmouth University, believes that there could be a reluctance to accept the result and that this could result in further disturbances. He has written about how much violence there has been during this campaign.



    Read more:
    US election: officials are issued with panic buttons as attacks on ballot boxes continue

    Dafyyd Townley comments on post-election violence.

    How race has played into the campaign

    Rhianna Garrett, PhD researcher and global coordinator of the critical mixed race studies executive board at Loughborough University, says that Trump’s campaign has been “littered with attempts to weaponise” the multiracial heritage of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.

    Much of this has been a dog-whistle attempt to stir up his own base, partly with fairly blatant appeals to latent feelings of racism, but also as a tool to position Harris as deceiving and untrustworthy by apparently blurring and shifting her own background.

    In August, not long after Harris took over the Democrat ticket from Biden, Trump appeared at the National Association of Black Journalists conference when he wrongfully claimed that Harris was changing her identity, stating: “I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black, So I don’t know. Is she Indian or is she Black?”.

    For her part, Harris’s campaign has also used her multiracial heritage to further their political agendas. On the White House website, she is described as “the first woman, the first Black American, and the first South Asian American” to hold a vice-presidential position, which has effectively attempted to position her as a winner. Harris herself has also foregrounded “race” on her campaign website. In attempt to attack Trump’s campaign, she strategically aims to promote Black and Latino men specifically, as well as women’s rights. These are key voter groups she has aimed to mobilise through identity politics.

    Trump and winning male voters

    Donald Trump widened his appeal to male voters in this election, with polling indicating that he was picking up more support from Black and Latino men, as well as more young men more widely.

    One reason for this may be that in 2024 young men are more conservative than any other group in the US. Another reason why gender has become a divisive issue is the overturning of Roe v Wade, the legal case that gave American women abortion rights.

    Read more on the gender divide in this article from Natasha Lindstaedt, a professor of government at Essex University.



    Read more:
    US election: why more men and fewer white women say they will vote for Trump

    A free speech campaign?

    Julie Posetti, professor of journalism at City St George’s, University of London, and global director of research at the International Center for Journalists, recently conducted a survey of more than 1,000 Americans on their attitudes to the press.

    Breaking down the results, they were able to build a picture of what people in the US think of targeting journalists for criticism and even abuse. You can read all about the study here.



    Read more:
    New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men

    When Trump speaks – his supporters hear him loud and clear

    Channel 4 is showing pictures of the Trump party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, where the Maga faithful are celebrating the news that it appears that Trump has retaken Georgia in his second swing-state victory. Their idol is expected to join them soon.

    While we wait for him to speak, here’s a fascinating piece on Trump’s rhetorical style by Loren D. Marsh of the Humboldt University of Berlin. His speeches have been ridiculed by his opponents during the campaign. They say he’s unfocused, rambling and at times nonsensical. He calls it the “weave” and says it’s genius. Marsh says that whatever you may think, it seems to work for his supporters.

    Far from being a liability or an indication he is incapable of staying on message, Trump’s “weave” may well be his intuitive rhetorical strategy, a way of taking control of the media narrative.



    Read more:
    Trump’s speeches are chaotic, rambling, and extremely effective. Aristotle can explain why

    A bad night for the pollsters

    Natasha

    – ref. US election results: Trump leads electoral college votes as Republicans regain Senate – https://theconversation.com/us-election-results-trump-leads-electoral-college-votes-as-republicans-regain-senate-241711

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump takes first swing states of North Carolina and Georgia after voting passes peacefully

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth

    Donald Trump looked poised to take some key battleground states this morning as votes continue to be counted. The Republicans were also being predicted to take control of the Senate.

    North Carolina with its 16 electoral college votes was called for Trump in the early hours of the morning, and another key east coast state, Georgia and its 16 electoral college votes, was also predicted to have been gained by Trump. Trump won other major states, from Iowa to Texas, with a strong showing at the polls.

    As well as this, Republicans have taken back control of the Senate as they were forecast to, after Democrats lost their slender lead. If Trump is victorious, this will provide him with the congressional support he needs to get his appointees ratified and pass laws without obstruction.

    Turnout has been impressive and initial speculation is that Trump has surpassed his rural support from 2020 while Democrat Kamala Harris only matched the suburban numbers that Biden achieved four years ago. NBC exit polls also showed Trump had more support from voters under 30 than any Republican candidate since 2008.

    The BBC reported that early exit polls indicated that voters were most concerned with the state of the democracy (35%) with the economy coming a close second (31%).

    These concerns have led to a turnout that will be just below the 2020 figures, according to Professor Michael McDonald, of the University of Florida.

    In too-close-to-call battleground state Pennsylvania, it was reported that voters were queueing in their hundreds over an hour before the polls opened at 7am.

    In Michigan, another key state in the election, officials said that those voters who had voted early – both the absentee and in-person votes – numbered almost as many as the total votes for the 2020 election.

    Michigan’s Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, said that the state was “on pace to see another high turnout election with voters all across the state enthusiastic and engaged”. And much of it was done in a good atmosphere with election chairperson Jennifer Jenkins telling reporters that it was “good vibes all around”.

    Safety concerns

    Concerns about whether election day would pass peacefully have not kept voters away.

    As revealed in a memo obtained by the non-partisan group, Property of the People, the Department of Homeland Security had issued a warning in September that election infrastructure was “an attractive target for some domestic violent extremists” particularly those with “election-related grievances” who seek to disrupt the democratic process and election operations.

    In the nation’s capital, Washington DC, police arrested a man who was stopped during the screening process at the US Capitol visitor centre. Authorities stated that he smelled like gasoline and had a torch lighter, flare gun and papers he intended to deliver to Congress.

    Capitol Police Chief J. Thomas Manger, speaking at a press conference shortly after the incident, stated that “there is no indication right now that it had anything to do with the election”.

    The greatest threat to the smooth running of the election on polling day seemed not to come from domestic perpetrators but from foreign interference, particularly in the crucial swing state races.

    Several polling stations in Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin were the victims of hoax bomb threats that caused temporary closures of the sites. The threats were believed to be sent by emails that were traced back to Russian email domains.

    In Navajo County in Arizona, four polling stations were the target of bomb threats. Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes told reporters that election officials in the state had “no reason to believe that any of our voters or any of our polling places are in any sort of jeopardy.”

    “We also have reason to believe, although I won’t get into specifics, that this comes from one of our foreign enemies, namely Russia,” he continued.

    In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro announced at a press conference that there had been multiple bomb threats at polling stations and municipal centres across the state.

    Shapiro, who was at one time thought of as a potential running mate for Harris, revealed that “state and local law enforcement – along with the FBI – are investigating these threats and thus far, there is no credible threat to the public”.

    This came after reports emerged of at least ten polling locations in Philadelphia and in surrounding areas were sent a bomb threat via email at 6pm local time.

    Republican Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger accused Russia of being the cause of the threats aimed at polling locations in the southern state. “They don’t want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election, and if they can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory,” he told reporters.

    The FBI stated that it was aware of the threats and that many appeared “to originate from Russian email domains”. The Russian embassy in Washington denied the threats.

    Last Thursday, Georgia was also the subject of what the US intelligence community called a disinformation campaign designed to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election result through an online video that “depicted individuals claiming to be from Haiti and voting illegally in multiple counties in Georgia”.

    Researchers at Clemson University in South Carolina identified the work as being that of Russian disinformation group Storm -1516. Darren Linvill of Clemson University, stated that Russian group had “turned their focus squarely on the US election.”

    And the integrity of this election took a further hit when Republican candidate Donald Trump made unfounded accusations on social media platform Truth Social of election fraud in Philadelphia, a must-win state for the former president.

    Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner said through a spokesperson that “the only talk about massive cheating has come from one of the candidates, Donald J. Trump. There is no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation”.

    Experts have warned that such campaigns could give momentum to accusations that the election is not legitimate and that this, in turn, could trigger post-election violence.

    As the results come in, America holds it breath that any potential transition of power will be more peaceful than four years ago.

    Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump takes first swing states of North Carolina and Georgia after voting passes peacefully – https://theconversation.com/trump-takes-first-swing-states-of-north-carolina-and-georgia-after-voting-passes-peacefully-242716

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    Donald Trump is set to accomplish the rare feat of winning the US presidential election after losing an earlier one.

    The New York Times Needle gives Trump a 95% chance to win the Electoral College. He’s estimated to have won Georgia (16 electoral votes) by 2.5% over Democrat Kamala Harris and North Carolina (16) by 3.3%.

    Other key states have not yet been called, but Trump has an 85% probability of winning Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), a 71% chance to win Michigan (15), a 79% chance to win Wisconsin (ten) and an 83% chance to win Arizona (11). There are still no results from Nevada (six).

    If Trump wins all the seven key states in which the “needle” favours him, he will win the Electoral College by a 312–226 margin.

    The needle’s popular vote projection also favours Trump by 1.2%. If Trump wins the popular vote as well as the Electoral College, it will be the first time Republicans have won both since 2004. In 2000 and 2016, Republicans won the Electoral College but not the popular vote.

    The main reasons for Trump’s victory were Joe Biden’s unpopularity, the US economy being only just above average, and record illegal immigration during Biden’s term. I’ve mentioned all these factors in my previous US election articles.

    Abortion was not the vote-shifter Democrats expected. In lower-turnout elections such as the 2022 midterms and byelections, Democrats have performed well owing to voters motivated by abortion. But in this high-turnout presidential election, abortion was marginalised.

    Polls understated Trump across the board, though they were not as bad as they were in 2020. Using Nate Silver’s aggregate of final polls, Trump outperformed his polls in the seven key states by two to three points. This is the third successive time that polls have underestimated Trump.

    In the past, the Selzer Iowa poll has had outlier results that turned out to be accurate. This time the final Selzer poll gave Harris a three-point lead in Iowa, but Trump will win by 13 points according to the needle’s forecast.

    Barack Obama won Florida in both 2008 and 2012, and Trump won it by one to three points in both 2016 and 2020. This year, Trump won Florida by 56–43. He won the heavily Hispanic Miami-Dade county by 55–44. At the 2016 presidential election, Hillary Clinton had defeated Trump in Miami-Dade by 63–34.

    In some states that have nearly finished counting, such as Kentucky, there were swings across the board to Trump compared with 2020. It wasn’t just a rural swing to Trump as there were also swings in urban counties.

    The New York Times said Trump had gained nine to ten points since 2020 in New York, New Jersey and Florida, all racially diverse states.

    The only comfort for Democrats from this election is that the gap between the popular vote and the Electoral College “tipping point” state has almost disappeared, if the needle is right. Democrats will lose the popular vote by 1.2% but Pennsylvania, the tipping point state, by 2.2%. This will be a gap of 1.0%, down from nearly 3.9% in 2020.

    Senate also ugly for Democrats

    Democrats and allied independents held a 51–49 Senate majority coming into this election, but they were defending 23 of the 33 regular seats up for election. Senators have six-year terms with two from each of the 50 states.

    Republicans have gained the Senate with a 51–42 lead over Democrats, after gaining West Virginia and Ohio from Democrats and defending Florida, Nebraska and Texas. Republicans lead Democrats in four more Senate races, so they could win a 55–45 Senate majority.

    All of the House of Representatives is up for election every two years. Republicans currently have a 183–155 lead over Democrats. A majority requires 218 seats.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Donald Trump poised to become next US president, likely sweeping all the seven key states – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-poised-to-become-next-us-president-likely-sweeping-all-the-seven-key-states-242766

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –