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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election: why immigration remains a major issue for voters and why they trust Trump on border security

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Eli Auslender, Research Fellow in Migration and Climate Change, Aberystwyth University

    US border policy remains a key electoral issue for Democrats and presidential nominee Kamala Harris as she approaches the November election.

    According to a recent Gallup poll, 77% of Americans believe the southern border is experiencing either an ongoing crisis or is a major problem. Meanwhile 55% wish to see less overall immigration, 53% support expansion of the border wall and 63% would support the president temporarily closing the border to asylum seekers when the border is “overwhelmed”.

    The issue is an important one in border states, especially in those such as Arizona, where polls show an incredibly tight race.
    Those who rate immigration as a top issue favour Donald Trump over Harris, and in one new poll voters say that Trump will be far more successful than Harris at securing the border.

    Joe Biden’s initial border policies continued some entry restrictions brought in by Trump’s administration, which had restricted border entry during the heights of the pandemic. But Biden also opened new pathways for legal migration. This included expanding temporary protected status, which expedites work permits for specific populations fleeing violence or disasters from countries such as Haiti or Ukraine.

    Biden’s congressional border bill failed to get through the Senate in June. In it, he aimed to speed up the asylum process, revoke visas of the bosses of companies that work with illegal immigrants, and add executive authority to shut border access.

    Harris has confirmed that she wants to resurrect the Biden administration’s border bill despite criticism from advocacy groups such as the American Civil Liberties Union. It argues that it would cut off any access to asylum protections for the vast majority of people arriving at the US-Mexico border, and disregard human safety.

    Democratic shift?

    So how and why did Democrats shift their border policies so drastically when they had been openly against Trump’s border restrictions during his presidency – and what does this mean for potential border policies under a Harris administration?

    Over the past decade, people from Central and South America have been fleeing for a variety of reasons, including the recent chaos in Haiti, the effect of harsh economic conditions in Venezuela and organised crime. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that the number of forcibly displaced people in the region is expected to reach 25 million.

    Along with this, the US southern border has been inaccurately framed as the primary means through which fentanyl has entered the country and caused the opioid crisis. These two factors have linked asylum-seekers with fentanyl despite US citizens being the main smugglers of fentanyl into the country.

    The Biden administration attempted to address some of these issues by appointing Harris, at the beginning of its term, to explore the “root causes” of migration from Central America. This included directing private sector investments towards countries from where large numbers of asylum seekers were fleeing. Research suggests that this does little to address organised crime or governance issues.



    Read more:
    No, immigrants aren’t eating dogs and cats – but Trump’s claim is part of an ugly history of myths about immigrant foodways

    Immigration was under discussion in the recent presidential debate.

    Customs and Border Protection reported in June that 2024 saw the fewest border crossings since 2021. The Harris campaign has seized on this to claim the Biden administration’s approach has been the correct one. A closer looks, however, suggests there are many different factors.

    US Customs and Border Protection has increasingly restricted access to asylum as per the executive order, delaying those who can cross the border and need to claim asylum immediately. Mexico (among other states in Central America) has restricted northward movement towards the US border, including bussing people back to the south of the country.

    Meanwhile, asylum-seeker deaths at crossing points within Central America and after crossing the US border have increased from 149 discovered remains in 2023 to 164 by August 2024. This would suggest that the root causes remain the same.

    Asylum, border security, crime, and the opioid epidemic have been tangled into a single issue. National security and immigration are constantly linked. And this has led to the Harris campaign’s recent advertisements emphasising her “tough stances” on border crime.

    This is in contrast to her criticism of Trump in 2018, when she called his border wall policy “un-American”. Despite past Democratic criticism of Trump’s harsh border restrictions, restrictive border policies have come from both parties.

    Both parties claim that stronger enforcement and more rigorous vetting of asylum-seekers is needed, as well as expedited deportations and “safe third country” deportations. These positions still conflate asylum-seekers with criminals. Immigrant advocates have noted that the US’ asylum system is already one of the most complex in the world. Asylum cases often take years to decide.

    The “remain in Mexico” policy, which forced asylum seekers to stay in Mexico while their asylum applications were considered, was implemented by the Trump administration during the pandemic and maintained by the Biden administration. Advocacy group Human Rights Watch argued that it endangered countless asylum seekers, putting men, women and children at risk of violence or death, while they waited for their cases to be heard.

    Seeking asylum is both a national and international right. The first potential policy priority to ease the border pressure should be to simplify the asylum process and reduce the time it takes to resolve a case from several years to several months. Fortifying the border puts vulnerable lives at risk, regardless of which party proposes it. Shutting down the border would only put more lives at risk.

    If the Harris campaign is serious about border policy reform, it must first look to ease and expedite asylum access instead of restricting it.

    Eli Auslender does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US election: why immigration remains a major issue for voters and why they trust Trump on border security – https://theconversation.com/us-election-why-immigration-remains-a-major-issue-for-voters-and-why-they-trust-trump-on-border-security-238263

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Torrential rain represents an opportunity to build a better society

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maryam Imani, Associate Professor of Water Systems Engineering, Anglia Ruskin University

    A month’s worth of rain has poured down in just a few hours in parts of central and southern England. More than 300 flood-related emergency calls were made, major roads were submerged, trains were delayed, and an enormous sinkhole opened up on a football pitch in south London.

    This follows similar torrential rain across central and eastern Europe two weeks ago, which led to flash floods and widespread damage and deaths. As climate change alters rain patterns and makes extreme downpours more common, and more extreme, such flooding is increasingly the new normal.

    Intense rain doesn’t lead to serious floods every time, of course. Sometimes we get lucky: a well-timed low tide might help, or a rainstorm could be surprisingly localised in a place where water can easily flow into the sea, a river or a pond. And some of the actions taken by humans to minimise the risk of catastrophic floods can actually make life more pleasant anyway, even when it isn’t raining. For this reason, we should see rains like this not just as a challenge, but as an opportunity.

    Minimising the risk of disaster

    There are various things we can do to minimise flood risks before and after torrential rains and prevent smaller floods from escalating into disasters.

    We can build bigger and better drainage and stormwater infrastructure, for instance, and make sure drains are unblocked and flood walls are properly maintained. This is an example of so-called “hard” flood defences.

    Features like ponds and wetlands, larger parks, or trees on hillsides, help slow down or store rainwater and can ensure the flow is spread out over days or even weeks. Water flows much faster over bare ground, and especially over concrete roads and buildings, where urban drainage systems can soon be overwhelmed – causing floods. These features are known variously as “nature-based solutions” or “sustainable drainage systems” or “blue-green infrastructure”.

    We can also use smart technologies for flood warning systems and we can ensure people are aware and prepared. We can ensure people don’t live in flood-prone areas in the first place, through climate-resilient planning, and that those who do live there are insured and have flood-proofed their homes as best they can.

    More sustainable flood management

    In the UK, several exemplary projects address flood management. The most iconic is the Thames Barrier in London, which protects the city from storm surges and high tides coming from the North Sea. Another is the the Leeds Flood Alleviation Scheme, which protects over 3,000 properties and 500 businesses in the UK’s fourth-largest urban area. It involves a combination of hard defences – weirs, flood walls – and natural solutions like planting trees and constructing water storage areas.

    The National Storm Overflows Plan for England report is being reviewed by the UK government for approval by December 2024. One of its recommendations is to make sustainable drainage systems mandatory.

    A government scheme (Flood Re) also ensures homeowners in flood-risk areas can protect their homes and obtain affordable insurance. And various rivers have been allowed to “wiggle” once again, by flooding over nearby fields. This has proven effective at reducing peak flows during storms, which is especially beneficial downstream where people live and where rivers are often encased in human-made banks.

    The River Derwent flows through the Lake District of northern England.
    RnDmS / shutterstock

    These initiatives are part of a broader trend toward more sustainable flood management practices. Key projects such as the “slowing the flow” project in Pickering, Yorkshire or projects along the River Derwent in Cumbria focus on reconnecting rivers with their floodplains.

    Worldwide lessons

    The Netherlands is one of the world leaders in flood management. The Delta Works, a massive system of dams, sluices, locks, dikes and storm-surge barriers, protects the country, much of which is below sea level, from flooding due to rainfall and rising sea levels.

    The Room for the River programme, started in 2007, manages higher water levels in rivers by lowering flood plains, creating water buffers, relocating levees, increasing the depth of side channels, and constructing flood bypasses. Urban adaptations, such as those in Rotterdam, are also crucial for managing flash flooding.

    Japan, particularly in flood-prone areas like Tokyo, has built massive underground flood tunnels to divert rainwater during storms. This system helps protect the city from excessive rainfall and typhoons. In many European countries, sustainable drainage systems are now integrated into urban planning. This helps absorb excess rainwater during storms, while offering ecological and social benefits too (grass and ponds are ultimately a lot nicer than bare concrete).

    It’s crucial to be aware of the problem of intense rain and view it as a chance to improve society. Prolonged droughts highlight the need to focus on storing and using excess water during high-demand times, which can be done by creating wetlands, storing floodwaters or by enabling the soil to store and retain more moisture.

    Engineers can’t do all this by themselves. Neither can tree-planters or wetland creators. We need a hybrid approach combining engineering solutions with nature and community efforts.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Maryam Imani is a member of the Institution of Civil Engineers and a STEM programme ambassador.

    – ref. Torrential rain represents an opportunity to build a better society – https://theconversation.com/torrential-rain-represents-an-opportunity-to-build-a-better-society-239755

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Gangs’stories: Danny’s tales of machismo in Glasgow

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Alistair Fraser, Professor of Criminology, University of Glasgow

    Glasgow – 1973, Queen Street Rail Station. Helmutt Zozmann, CC BY-NC-ND

    For the past five years, the GANGS project, a European Research Council-funded project led by Dennis Rodgers, has been studying global gang dynamics in a comparative perspective. When understood in a nuanced manner that goes beyond the usual stereotypes and Manichean representations, gangs and gangsters arguably constitute fundamental lenses through which to think about and understand the world we live in.

    _Alistair Fraser and Angela Bartie present the story of Danny, who was a Glaswegian gang member in his youth. Drawing on interviews carried out when he was 18, 59, and 70 years old, they trace his changing self-reflection about his past experiences which mirror the broader transformation of the city from a violence urban space in the 1960s to a thriving “people’s city” in 2024.

    _

    As Danny left the room, that autumn of 2022, our eyes locked together in shock. For the last three hours, this spry seventy-year-old had held us rapt. Tanned, lean, and composed in his smart coat and cap, he was someone you’d have happily bought a used car from. But in the room he had been regaling us with tales of his teenage years running with the ‘Drummy’, a street gang notorious in Glasgow’s history. How had he got from there to here?

    Danny grew up in Easterhouse, a 1950s housing scheme on the periphery of the city that quickly attracted negative publicity. Tens of thousands were rehoused from crumbling tenements in the city centre. They were sold a bright new vision of progress but found themselves deserted on the edge of town, with only fields for company. Without shops, jobs, or facilities, young people made their own entertainment, forming themselves into gangs and fighting for kicks. Membership was decided simply by which street you happened to live on, a kind of natural selection where geography would land you on one side or the other. Unlike gangs in other cities, in Glasgow it was not about control of drug markets but a more primal law of the jungle, fighting for kicks and respect.

    The violence of the Easterhouse gangs was legendary. As Danny recalled:

    “It was just out and out tribal, that’s all it was, you know. And it was a day-to-day routine… some of the things you did were ludicrous. I mean, we used to run, we had football pitches, and you would run into the football pitches, maybe 50, 60 of yous, in pitch black. You would charge each other. Now, the British Army wouldn’t do that, in pitch black, run into it, not knowing what’s there. And you ran at each other, not knowing if the guy’s got a sword, a knife, a hatchet, anything.”

    The issue didn’t stay local for long. Warfare involving Easterhouse gangs attracted national media attention, drew concerned responses from politicians, and even garnered a celebrity visit from popular entertainer Frankie Vaughan who asked the gangs to put down their knives.

    Years before series such as the Peaky Blinders, the movie Small Faces (1996) would highlight gang violence in industrial towns such as Glasgow.

    The violence also attracted the attention of radical criminologists. Gail Wilson and Mary Wilson were part of a loose association of “Anarchists, CND, young Communists and international Socialists” (Cohen 1974: 27) who were trying to rewire academic approaches to youth culture. Rather than looking at the rule-breakers, these upstarts were looking at the rule makers and asking why some groups were criminalised more than others. Gail and Mary spent years working alongside gang youth in Easterhouse, studying their daily lives and comparing this with media narratives. They applied a theory called “social constructionism”, which tries to untangle stereotypes and reality.

    Meeting Danny

    We first met Gail and Mary back in 2010, after our studies of 1960s gangs had led us to their doorsteps. During our first meeting, Gail climbed a ladder to a storage hatch and retrieved a dusty box. Our eyes widened as we saw what lay inside. Notes, news clippings, sketches, essays and – incredibly – eighteen hand-written transcripts of interviews with members of the “Drummy” gang from 1969.

    We set about trying to trace these boys, who would now be in their fifties. We wondered how their lives had gone, where they’d ended up, and what lessons they would want to tell the current generation. We weren’t always successful. Some had died, others relocated. One got in touch to say he didn’t want to talk about that period in his life. Danny was one that said yes.

    Glasgow Gangs, 1968.

    Danny’s story, in a way, was the story of Glasgow. After his teenage gang years, Danny surfed Glasgow’s wave of industrialisation into a career in sales. He worked hard and moved out of the estate, initially to an area a few miles west of Easterhouse. His manager saw his potential, and Danny reflected that his street skills had prepared him for organisational roles and promotion.

    When we first spoke in 2011, he had been bullish in his talk of days gone by. His eyes glinted at the retelling of tales of violence, like a cowboy in a Western saloon. He revelled in one about his strict father taking him to the pub for his 18th birthday, where they had been challenged to a fight by a man and his dog. “Needless to say”, he told us with a grin, “we leathered them.”

    It sealed a bond between father and son. As he told us, “I kind of walked up the road as proud as punch, me and my dad”. We interpreted this as a link between past and present – the gang was a hand-me-down masculinity, like the legend of the Glasgow hardman swaggering through the pages of history.

    Ten years later, however, he told the story differently. As we sat squeezed around a table too big for the room, the air was thick with regret not bravado. His father had recently passed away, and this former hardman was suddenly vulnerable. As he recalled in 2022 of the altercation:

    “That’s the first time I probably ever bonded, truly, with my dad, if you know what I mean, in all the years… on my 18th birthday, I’ll never forget it.”

    The macho image started to fracture

    The macho image that we had of Danny, and of the Glasgow hardman, started to fracture. Ever since, we have been re-evaluating what we thought we knew about Danny’s life – and gang lives in general – and our own part in retelling his story. The oral historian Lynn Abrams says:

    “The story that a person tells is just one of many that are possible. The script is not deterministic. Its shape, form and content is determined by the need for the narrator to construct a memory story with which he or she can feel comfortable at that moment. And a comfortable telling is often one in which the story told coheres with larger cultural understandings.”

    Danny’s perspectives on his youthful gang experiences have altered not just in response to his own changing life circumstances, but also to how the culture of Glasgow has transformed in the fifty years since he was involved in the Drummy.

    Today, Glasgow is hailed as a city that has beaten the gangs, with talk of a Glasgow miracle of violence reduction.

    As he swaggered out the door, every inch the successful businessman, a stillness descended on the room. Danny was as far from the stereotype of a gang member as you could possibly imagine. He is your grandfather, your neighbour, your friend.

    Meeting Danny reminded us that stories matter, but like a city they can change – and paying attention to when and why these stories change can often reveal more than the stories themselves.

    Les auteurs ne travaillent pas, ne conseillent pas, ne possèdent pas de parts, ne reçoivent pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’ont déclaré aucune autre affiliation que leur organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Gangs’stories: Danny’s tales of machismo in Glasgow – https://theconversation.com/gangsstories-dannys-tales-of-machismo-in-glasgow-224876

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Even as urban foxes get bolder, people appreciate rather than persecute them, say psychologists

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Blake Morton, Lecturer of Animal Psychology, University of Hull

    starlings_images/Shutterstock

    For many, urban red foxes are a familiar sight in back gardens or city streets. Often, people delight in seeing them and the connection to wildlife they bring. Others find them a nuisance, whether because of their smell, poo or loud screaming noises during the breeding season. Some anecdotal reports indicate that foxes could be becoming bolder within cities – even riding on buses, stealing shoes or taking naps on someone’s garden shed.

    Our study for the British carnivore project shows for the first time that foxes within the UK are indeed behaving more boldly within cities compared to rural populations – but that most people remain tolerant of them anyway.

    Foxes are vital to ecosystem health and represent an important “flagship” species for urban residents’ connection to the natural world. However, bolder fox behaviour could, in theory, lead to more conflict with humans, particularly as people encroach more on green space through increasing urbanisation. It is therefore crucial to understand how to avoid conflict with these animals and explore positive ways to coexist.

    Stories and imagery can play an important role in shaping our attitudes about wildlife. However, although foxes are often portrayed as “sly” and “cunning” in popular culture, it remains unclear how this might affect public perceptions. Identifying factors that influence people’s feelings and attitudes towards foxes is important for understanding how we can coexist amicably alongside them.

    Communicating information about bolder urban foxes through press releases and YouTube videos, for instance, runs the risk of people creating false impressions or sensationalised beliefs about fox behaviour. This could undermine important conservation initiatives to protect the welfare of urban foxes, including efforts to avoid unethical treatment or persecution of these animals.

    Foxy behaviour

    Our recent study tested whether messages about bolder urban foxes are biasing how people feel about them. To do this, 1,364 British people were randomly selected to take part in an online experiment.

    Participants were not told what the study was about. Half were given stories depicting bold and cunning fox behaviour and shown a short video of foxes exploring and solving food puzzles that we had left overnight in people’s back gardens.

    Half the study participants were shown this three-minute video of foxes solving food puzzles.

    Other participants were shown relatively neutral content, including a video of foxes walking through different landscapes.

    Afterwards, all participants answered 24 questions that enabled us to evaluate their perceptions of foxes, including whether they felt fox behaviour negatively impacted their everyday lives.

    Half the study participants were shown this short video of foxes walking through various habitats.

    The study revealed that content about bold and cunning fox behaviour did not have a significant effect on participants’ tolerance of foxes, compared to people in the control group. In fact, across both the experimental and control groups, 83% of people displayed feelings about foxes that were more positive than negative. This suggests that participants from the experimental group remained positive despite being made aware that bold and intelligent behaviour from foxes probably explains their “pesky” interactions with people.

    Previous studies have found that foxes are a very well-liked species throughout much of the UK, despite other studies suggesting that attitudes are more mixed in urban areas like London. Our latest study provides the most up-to-date evidence showing that this remains the case. However, as foxes continue to become bolder within cities, which our previous work suggests, it will become very important to continue to monitor whether (or how) attitudes change towards these animals throughout the country.

    Our results illustrate that the likeability factor of foxes is deeply rooted and difficult to change just by discussing their nuisance behaviour in a single setting. Although foxes are often perceived to be bold and crafty, our online experiments showed that most people remained generally tolerant of them anyway.

    By giving residents more of a voice in urban planning, solutions can be designed to encourage people to coexist with foxes without persecuting these animals, such as how to dispose of our waste properly to deter bin-raiding. This, in our view, is great news for foxes and people.

    Blake Morton received funding from the University of Hull, UKRI Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (Grant No.
    NE/X018342/1), and EU Social Fund Plus for the study.

    Charlotte Hopkins received funding from NERC for this project (Grant No. NE/X018342/1)

    – ref. Even as urban foxes get bolder, people appreciate rather than persecute them, say psychologists – https://theconversation.com/even-as-urban-foxes-get-bolder-people-appreciate-rather-than-persecute-them-say-psychologists-234110

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sexual strangulation has become popular – but that doesn’t mean it’s wanted

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hannah Bows, Associate Professor in Criminal Law, Durham University

    Shutterstock

    An act seemingly once confined to bondage and “kink” communities has become mainstream. Despite the many risks to health (including death), sexual choking is now popular, even commonplace, particularly among young people.

    Sexual choking is a more informal label for strangulation. It involves the grabbing, holding or compression of another’s neck either by hands, or limb, or by use of a prop or weapon, and typically involves restriction of blood or air flow. When it is used as part of a sexual encounter, it is frequently referred to as “erotic asphyxiation” or “breath play”.

    In a 2016 survey of Americans aged 18-60 years, 21.4% of women who had sex with men had been choked. And one in five men admitted to choking a partner (male or female) during sex.

    An Australian study from this year found that more than half of 18- to 35-year-olds reported they had been strangled during sex at least once. A similar proportion admitting to strangling a partner at least once. Though strangling is common among both men and women, evidence shows that women are more likely to be strangled and men more likely to do the strangling.

    Separate research suggests strangulation has become so normalised that many do not consider it to be a form of rough or violent sex at all. A 2019 survey found only around a third of participants considered choking to be rough sexual behaviour. Most considered hair pulling, being pinned down, biting, being tied up and slapping as rough sexual behaviour.

    While there have not been many studies on the prevalence of choking until recently, researchers and campaigners have reported that young people are talking about the practise more in recent years.

    According to a 2022 study that surveyed American university students, those who report enjoying being strangled cited a high from the experience – a feeling of euphoria – that heightens sexual pleasure.

    People give various reasons for engaging in sexual strangling, including wanting to be kinky or adventurous, believing it would please their partner, and feelings of power and dominance. But campaigners point out that the often gendered nature of strangulation can feed into wider patterns of coercion and control of women by men.

    Although sexual choking appears to be increasingly common, it is not necessarily wanted by those engaging in or receiving it. A significant proportion of women, in particular, do not consent to being choked, even if the rest of the encounter is consensual.

    A survey for the BBC in 2019 found that in a study of 2,000 young women aged 18–39, 38% had experienced unwanted slapping, choking, gagging or spitting during otherwise consensual sex. And a similar proportion of men admit to choking or strangling a partner during sex without their consent.

    Normalising strangulation

    The act of strangulation has become increasingly normalised and sexualised. The Fifty Shades of Grey trilogy, a worldwide bestseller, was widely criticised by feminist campaigners, academics and domestic abuse charities for eroticising strangulation and making it socially acceptable. The recent Netflix-produced films Lady Chatterley’s Lover and Obsession also contain strangulation during sex scenes, which are presented as part of a love story.

    A 2020 investigation by the Times found hundreds of images of sexualised choking and strangulation on Pinterest, Instagram and Tumblr. The images included pictures of young women being pinned down and strangled by men, women with gags over their mouths and children being gripped by the throat.

    Social media hashtags promoting these images include #Daddy, #ChokingKink, #BreathPlay and #Strangle. Disturbingly, the investigation found hypersexualised tags and descriptions accompanying many of these images, including one which said “bruise my oesophagus”.

    Unwanted strangulation can happen during otherwise consensual sex.
    PPstudio/Shutterstock

    Pornography has also played a role in eroticising strangulation, as part of a wider normalisation of violent sex. And research has found links between people seeing choking depicted in pornography and engaging in it themselves.

    In TV, books, social media or pornography, it is almost always men strangling women. Similarly, the evidence on real life sexual choking shows this is a practice more often done by men to women.

    The creep of strangulation into legitimate and normalised behaviour makes it more difficult for women to escape (and avoid) violent relationships. This normalisation leads many women to feel like they cannot speak up about nonconsensual choking.

    In her recent book exploring rough sex, journalist Rachel Thompson highlights that women feel refusing to participate or responding to non-consensual choking could reflect negatively on them as sexual partners.

    Risky behaviour

    Regardless of consent, strangulation is associated with a range of health risks. These include loss of consciousness, loss of voice, difficulty in swallowing or breathing, bruising, redness, haemorrhages, headaches, depression, PTSD, suicidal thoughts and death (including delayed death occurring days or weeks after the strangulation).

    Strangulation has traditionally been viewed as a violent act and has long been recognised as assault in criminal law. A growing number of homicides of women by men involve claims that the death was an accident resulting from “rough sex” gone wrong.

    Strangulation or asphyxiation is a leading cause in many of these cases, and in some, reference has been made to the Fifty Shades of Grey trilogy as the inspiration for engaging in what is alleged to have been consensual sexual choking.

    England and Wales have recently introduced a new offence of non-fatal strangulation as part of domestic abuse legislation, which police appear to be actively using. But the law alone isn’t enough to change the normalisation of this dangerous act.



    Read more:
    Longer sentences for ‘rough sex’ killers may not deliver justice for victims

    Some advocates for safe BDSM practice have suggested that breath play can be done safely if there is clear consent, proper boundaries and certain rules are followed. But clinicians, academics and parliamentarians have argued there is no safe way to choke someone.

    Hannah Bows receives funding from the ESRC, British Academy & Home Office.

    – ref. Sexual strangulation has become popular – but that doesn’t mean it’s wanted – https://theconversation.com/sexual-strangulation-has-become-popular-but-that-doesnt-mean-its-wanted-239235

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: An oral weight loss pill has just passed early trials with promising results – here’s how it works

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martin Whyte, Associate Professor of Metabolic Medicine, University of Surrey

    Numerous companies are working on developing weight loss pills that would have similar effects as injectable drugs currently on the market. Ljupco Smokovski/ Shutterstock

    The arrival of GLP-1 analogue drugs (such as Wegovy) marked a huge shift in the weight loss drug market. These drugs have been shown to lead to significant weight loss in users – as much as 15% or more of their body weight in clinical trials. For this reason, demand for weight loss drugs has skyrocketed worldwide.

    Most of the GLP-1 analogue drugs on the market are taken as a weekly injection under the skin. But many companies are now working on translating these drugs into a form that can be taken orally, as a pill.

    But will weight loss pills be as effective as the injectable GLP-1 drugs already on the market?

    How do injectable weight loss drugs work?

    When we eat, the gastrointestinal system produces a variety of hormones in response, that go on to signal satiety to the brain. Collectively, these hormones are called “incretins”. Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) and islet amyloid polypeptide (amylin) are all incretins.

    Incretins signal the hypothalamus (a structure in the brain that links the endocrine and nervous systems) and other brain regions to tell the rest of the body we’re full.

    The drug semaglutide (sold under the brand names Wegovy and Ozempic) mimics the naturally occurring incretin GLP-1. But unlike the GLP-1 the body produces (which is quickly broken down by enzymes after it’s been released), semaglutide has been pharmacologically modified so that the hormone lasts longer in the body – thereby making a person feel fuller for longer after meals.

    Other weight loss drugs can act on more than one incretin receptor. Tirzepatide (sold under the brand name Mounjaro) is the first available “dual” incretin. In other words, it has properties of two incretin molecules – acting on both GLP-1 and GIP receptors. Clinical trials showed tirzepatide is even more effective than semaglutide – leading to an impressive loss of up to 20% of body weight in overweight or obese participants who took the drug for 72 weeks.

    How would a weight loss pill work?

    Novo Nordisk, the makers of Wegovy, recently announced the phase 1 trial results of a new oral weight loss pill they’re developing, called amycretin.

    At the European Association for the Study of Diabetes conference in September 2024, researchers reported that in early trials, amycretin led to a 10.4% loss of body weight in people who were overweight or obese when taken at its lowest dose for 12 weeks. When taken at a higher dose, it led to an over 13% loss of body weight in the same time period. This was compared to participants who were given a placebo, who lost only 1% of their body-weight. The amount of weight lost was faster than when compared to semaglutide injections.

    The oral pill was shown to be more effective than injectable semaglutide.
    Artmim/ Shutterstock

    Amycretin works by targeting two incretin hormone receptors: GLP-1 and amylin.

    Amylin is secreted at the same time as insulin by cells in the pancreas. The hormone plays a key role in blood sugar (glucose) regulation by controlling how quickly food is digested in the stomach and controlling when the hormone glucagon in released. Importantly, amylin receptors are found in specific brain regions that regulate appetite. As such, it can trigger a satiety signal after meals.

    Weight loss from GLP-1 and amylin receptor treatments works through both separate as well as shared brain pathways. Because of this, combining the two therapies is anticipated to have a greater effect on promoting weight loss. Based on the early results from this amycretin trial, it appears this is true.

    As amycretin has been developed to be taken as a pill, it may offer a more convenient option for managing obesity. Furthermore, weight loss had not plateaued by the 12-week period – so people may be able to lose more weight than that shown so far. And, side-effects appear similar to other incretin-based treatments – including nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea or constipation.

    Larger trials are now taking place to better understand how safe and effective it really is.

    Advances in the field of weight loss drugs are evolving rapidly. Further dual-agonist and even triple-agonist incretin drugs are in development. Trials so far show they lead to a significant loss of body weight. Numerous companies are also working on developing weight loss pills that target incretin receptors – with trial results for some anticipated later this year.

    Amycretin has now advanced to the next phase of clinical trials. If proven to be as safe and effective as it was in phase one trials, it could be good news for patients with obesity. More options available on the market would also be good news as it could help manage global demand for weight loss drugs and ease the resultant shortages of these products.

    Martin Whyte has received research funding from AstraZeneca.

    – ref. An oral weight loss pill has just passed early trials with promising results – here’s how it works – https://theconversation.com/an-oral-weight-loss-pill-has-just-passed-early-trials-with-promising-results-heres-how-it-works-239637

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: New solar cells break efficiency record – they could eventually supercharge how we get energy from the Sun

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sebastian Bonilla, Associate Professor of Materials, University of Oxford

    Thanun Vongsuravanich / Shutterstock

    The sight of solar panels installed on rooftops and large energy farms has become commonplace in many regions around the world. Even in grey and rainy UK, solar power is becoming a major player in electricity generation.

    This surge in solar is fuelled by two key developments. First, scientists, engineers and those in industry are learning how to make solar panels by the billions. Every fabrication step is meticulously optimised to produce them very cheaply. The second and most significant is the relentless increase in the panels’ power conversion efficiency – a measure of how much sunlight can be transformed into electricity.

    The higher the efficiency of solar panels, the cheaper the electricity. This might make you wonder: just how efficient can we expect solar energy to become? And will it make a dent in our energy bills?

    Current commercially available solar panels convert about 20-22% of sunlight into electrical power. However, new research published in Nature has shown that future solar panels could reach efficiencies as high as 34% by exploiting a new technology called tandem solar cells. The research demonstrates a record power conversion efficiency for tandem solar cells.

    What are tandem solar cells?

    Traditional solar cells are made using a single material to absorb sunlight. Currently, almost all solar panels are made from silicon – the same material at the core of microchips. While silicon is a mature and reliable material, its efficiency is limited to about 29%.

    To overcome this limit, scientists have turned to tandem solar cells, which stack two solar materials on top of each other to capture more of the Sun’s energy.

    In the new nature paper, a team of researchers at the energy giant LONGi has reported a new tandem solar cell that combines silicon and perovskite materials. Thanks to their improved sunlight harvesting, the new perovskite-silicon tandem has achieved a world record 33.89% efficiency.

    Perovskite solar materials, which were discovered less than two decades ago, have emerged as the ideal complement to the established silicon technology. The secret lies in their light absorption tuneability. Perovskite materials can capture high energy, blue light more efficiently than silicon.

    In this way, energy losses are avoided and the total tandem efficiency increases. Other materials, called III-V semiconductors, have also been used in tandem cells and achieved higher efficiencies. The problem is they are hard to produce and expensive, so only small solar cells can be made in combination with focused light.

    The scientific community is putting tremendous effort into perovskite solar cells. They have kept a phenomenal pace of development with efficiencies (for a single cell in the lab) rising from 14% to 26% in only 10 years. Such advancements enabled their integration into ultra-high-efficiency tandem solar cells, demonstrating a pathway to scale photovoltaic technology to the trillions of Watts the world needs to decarbonise our energy production.

    The cost of solar electricity

    The new record-breaking tandem cells can capture an additional 60% of solar energy. This means fewer panels are needed to produce the same energy, reducing installation costs and the land (or roof area) required for solar farms.

    It also means that power plant operators will generate solar energy at a higher profit. However, due to the way that electricity prices are set in the UK, consumers may never notice a difference in their electricity bills. The real difference comes when you consider rooftop solar installations where the area is constrained and the space has to be exploited effectively.

    The price of rooftop solar power is calculated based on two key measures. First, the total cost to install solar panels on your roof, and second, how much electricity they will generate over their 25 years of operation. While the installation cost is easy to obtain, the revenues from generating solar electricity at home are a bit more nuanced. You can save money by using less energy from the grid, especially in periods when it is costly, and you can also sell some of your surplus electricity back to the grid.

    However, the grid operators will pay you a very small price for this electricity, so sometimes it is better to use a battery and store the energy so you can use it at night. Using average considerations for a typical British household, I have calculated the cash savings consumers would gain from rooftop solar electricity depending on the efficiency of the panels.

    If we can improve panel efficiency from 22% to 34% without
    increasing the installation cost, savings in electricity bills will rise from £558ְ/year up to £709/year. A 20% bump in cash savings that would make solar rooftops extremely attractive, even in grey and cloudy Britain.

    The higher the efficiency of solar panels, the cheaper the resulting electricity.
    IM Imagery / Shutterstock

    So when can we buy these new solar panels?

    As research continues, considerable efforts are being made to scale up this technology and ensure its long-term durability. The record breaking tandem cells are made in laboratories and are smaller than a postage stamp. Translating such high performance to metre-square areas remains a vast challenge.

    Yet, we are making progress. Earlier this month, Oxford PV, a solar manufacturer at the forefront of perovskite technology, announced the first sale of its newly developed tandem solar panels. They have successfully tackled the challenges of integrating two solar materials and making durable and reliable panels. While they are still far from 34% efficiencies, their work shows a promising route for next generation solar cells.

    Another consideration is the sustainability of the materials used in tandem solar panels. Extracting and processing some of the minerals in solar panels can be hugely energy intensive. Besides silicon, perovskite solar cells require the elements lead, carbon, iodine and bromine as components to make them work properly. Connecting perovskite and silicon also requires scarce materials containing an element called indium, so there is plenty of research still required to address these difficulties.

    Despite the challenges, the scientific and industrial community remains committed to developing tandem solar devices that could be integrated into almost anything: cars, buildings and planes.

    The recent developments toward high efficiency perovskite-silicon tandem cells indicate a bright future for solar power, ensuring solar continues to play a more prominent role in the global transition to renewable energy.

    Sebastian Bonilla receives funding from UK Research and Innovation, The Royal Academy of Engineering, and The Leverhulme Trust.

    – ref. New solar cells break efficiency record – they could eventually supercharge how we get energy from the Sun – https://theconversation.com/new-solar-cells-break-efficiency-record-they-could-eventually-supercharge-how-we-get-energy-from-the-sun-239417

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nature is adapting to climate change – why aren’t we?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition

    Humanity may be no better prepared for the impacts of climate change today than in the 1970s.

    So says a new study led by Stanford University researchers that compared how sensitive societies are to extreme weather now versus 50 years ago. This research has yet to be peer-reviewed, and its conclusions run counter to what many climate policy experts have long assumed. If they are accurate, it means that additional wealth, technology and climate-savvy have not meaningfully enhanced our protection as the weather has become more hostile.


    This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage comes from our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 35,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.

    Earth’s atmosphere has warmed and contains more moisture as a result of fossil fuel burning. Europeans reeling from Storm Boris can testify to the failure of even wealthy countries to adapt to this reality says Chris Medland, a PhD candidate in climate change resilience at the University of Surrey.



    Read more:
    Who’s to blame when climate change turns the lights off?

    Eventually, everyone will feel this deficit.

    “Your home may not be in the path of the next storm but the infrastructure it relies on might be,” Medland says.

    Flood defences, power lines, rail networks – all of these things and more need to be built or upgraded to withstand mounting storms. Yet in the recently flooded UK, the companies that run utilities are not expressly obliged to ensure their networks remain resilient to climate change, Medland says. Nor is it clear who is ultimately responsible for keeping the lights on as the crisis intensifies.

    Invaders must die?

    If the accounts of biologists are anything to go by, the natural world is adapting to the effects of climate change far more radically than any human institution.

    “Faced with the degradation of their habitat, the species that will survive will be those that are able to adapt,” says Suzanne Bonamour, a postdoctoral researcher in ecology at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology.

    Bonamour studies an endangered seabird, the crested cormorant, and its struggles to feed itself and its brood amid stormier seas. These birds can migrate to escape a winter squall, but only some do.



    Read more:
    How cormorants are rethinking their migration routes in the face of climate change

    Bonamour wonders whether adult birds might transmit this behaviour to their chicks, but she says that there is little that species can do to compensate for the catastrophe humans are engineering.

    Adjusting to a rapidly changing climate is a very tall order.
    LABETAA Andre/Shutterstock

    When plants and animals seeking cooler climes settle on new shores, they usually get a hostile reception. Attempting to root out these migrants is generally a mistake according to Heather Kharouba, an ecologist at the University of Ottawa.

    “Stated plainly, the vast majority of intentionally or unintentionally introduced species are not a threat to native ecosystems,” she says.



    Read more:
    Climate change means we may have to learn to live with invasive species

    Some arrivals do cause problems. In North America, “invasive species” include the emerald ash borer, an insect from north-eastern Asia that damages ash trees. But most control measures are laborious and expensive failures, Kharouba says. Some are even harmful, like using herbicides that afflict the native and non-native alike.

    Kharouba cites numerous examples of introduced species enriching their new homes. More generally, there is a trade-off: forests in the eastern US that are turning gold with autumn’s onset now harbour fewer species, but they store more carbon.

    “All this means that introduced plants could be well placed to support, or even buffer, current ecosystems as they undergo transitions due to climate change,” Kharouba says.

    Nature offers stark evidence that the world is changing rapidly. What if we embraced it?

    ‘Not just a challenge’

    Climate activists have typically shied away from discussing “climate adaptation” for fear of sounding defeatist says Joost de Moor, an assistant professor of political science at Sciences Po. There is cause to remain laser-focused on cutting emissions, he adds, but no excuse to neglect the question entirely.

    If change is inevitable, what sort of world do we want to emerge from the climate crisis? In March 2023, protesters in western France seized the initiative when they opposed the construction of a 628,000 sq metre reservoir in the rural Sainte-Soline commune, de Moor says.



    Read more:
    How climate activists finally seized the issue of adaptation in 2023

    France had suffered a historic drought, and so a huge artificial water reserve might have seemed prudent. Not if it involved draining a common resource, the water table, to serve a few farmers whose methods of agriculture already placed an untenable strain on struggling ecosystems, protesters argued.

    The campaign sparked a vital debate about whose needs ought to be prioritised in a future with greater hardship says Lucien Thabourey, a sociologist of environmental activism at Sciences Po. Fortunately, there is also a conversation to be had about the ways in which everyone might live better.



    Read more:
    Sainte-Soline : un tournant pour les mouvements écologistes ?

    “Some of the actions taken by humans to minimise the risk of catastrophic floods can actually make life more pleasant anyway, even when it isn’t raining,” says Maryam Imani, an associate professor of water systems engineering at Anglia Ruskin University.



    Read more:
    Torrential rain represents an opportunity to build a better society

    “For this reason, we should see rains like this not just as a challenge, but as an opportunity.”

    – ref. Nature is adapting to climate change – why aren’t we? – https://theconversation.com/nature-is-adapting-to-climate-change-why-arent-we-239750

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Fan reviews and parodies of Amazon’s The Rings of Power show that ownership is not just determined by contracts

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lincoln Geraghty, Professor of Media Cultures, University of Portsmouth

    The fan reaction to season one of The Rings of Power in 2022 was, to put it mildly, very mixed. Following the 2017 announcement that Amazon had bought the rights to adapt some of J.R.R Tolkien’s lesser-known work, many fans were cautious in their celebration.

    I research fandoms, so I am particularly drawn to the levels of critical analysis and humour fans employ in their review videos and parodies of The Rings of Power. They highlight that while multi-billion-dollar corporations may have the financial clout to own valuable IP and some of the biggest entertainment franchises, ownership is not just determined by contracts.

    Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings trilogy (2001-2003) stands as testament to the director’s passion for Tolkien, Middle Earth and cinematic storytelling.

    With The Rings of Power, Amazon was clearly trying to capture some of that for the small screen. They hoped to use the franchise to compete with other streaming platforms such as Netflix and Disney+, as well as copy HBO’s success with series like Game of Thrones. Epic fantasy television offered Amazon the potential for new subscribers, awards and priceless word-of-mouth marketing.

    However, that is not quite what happened. Early promotion for season one was scarce, the teaser trailer was ratioed (meaning it had thousands more dislikes than likes) and a campaign to use social media influencers and vloggers as promoters backfired.

    The trailer for season two of The Rings of Power.

    When marketing backfires

    Amazon flew a number of social media influencers and vloggers to Mallorca in Spain to watch the first teaser trailer, and then filmed their praise and reactions to be shared on their channels and Amazon’s own social media.

    But fans quickly spotted that a number of the influencers and vloggers had never made Lord of the Rings content before and most of the reactions were scripted, depending on language and nationality of the vloggers. When these promos started to be ratioed on YouTube, Amazon took them down.

    Now with season two upon us, the lack of faith in Amazon’s adaptation has not only continued – it has noticeably grown. Some content creators have reacted negatively to the company’s and showrunners’ attempts at turning the very small amount of the story and lore, to which they have rights, into many hours worth of television.

    Yet, it is how the fans respond which is often more intriguing and revealing than what they are responding to. The overall tone and argument that fans share about the series is that it lacks faithfulness to Tolkien’s world and tries to adapt and copy Jackson’s version of Middle Earth, rather than create something appealing in its own right.

    This is best highlighted in recent videos produced by well-known and controversial Lord Of The Rings fan, Nerdrotic, who outlines in enormous detail how season two has gone further in trying to sound and look like Jackson’s movies.

    Nerdrotic’s criticism of The Rings of Power.

    The use of clips, dialogue, sound effects and references to press sources raises such content to almost academic level of critique. His cultural capital and knowledge of the story and lore is clearly displayed, and used to both raise the source material up while he puts the Amazon adaptation down.

    This is typical of fans who feel their beloved text is under attack – they come to its defence by building a case for its original quality and value.

    Fan parodies

    The use of parody and humour to pour scorn on the series is also a common practice among fans. New digital technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) allow fans to create a sense of realism that again demonstrates their knowledge and love of the original works.

    Charlie Hopkinson’s Gandalf Reviews deepfake sketches have found an audience that both knows the lore but is also familiar with and enjoys the format of reaction videos made popular on YouTube. Setting Gandalf in a sitcom where he chats with other characters while watching Lord of the Rings may seem glaringly unfaithful to the material, but it uses displacement of those same characters to highlight the importance and value of the original story and movies.

    One of the Gandalf deep fake videos.

    Fans develop a strong sense of ownership over their favourite media or books. They have taken fantasy, science fiction, comic book and horror franchises to their heart and put time, money and energy into getting to know them in every detail.

    Because of the level of financial and personal investment, they feel they “own” the text and have helped make it popular in the first place. Therefore, they would argue they have every right to feel threatened, angry or frustrated at what they perceive as harm being done to it and so, by extension, them.

    Streaming platforms such as Amazon have tried to stay ahead in an increasingly competitive market by mining well-known IP to lure in fans and non-subscribers alike. However, as The Rings of Power has shown, attempts at courting fans can come at a cost which may never be recouped.

    The relationship between fans and entertainment corporations is as fraught as ever. Amazon needs Tolkien fans, but at the same time doesn’t seem to recognise the fact that the fans may not need them – or another adaption – to keep them entertained. They can do that for themselves.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Lincoln Geraghty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Fan reviews and parodies of Amazon’s The Rings of Power show that ownership is not just determined by contracts – https://theconversation.com/fan-reviews-and-parodies-of-amazons-the-rings-of-power-show-that-ownership-is-not-just-determined-by-contracts-238704

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How better community engagement can improve emergency management in Canada

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sayra Cristancho, Associate Professor, Department of Surgery and Faculty of Education Scientist, Centre for Education Research & Innovation, Western University

    Environmental, social and public health emergencies are becoming more frequent and severe around the world. The rapid pace at which emergencies are occurring, compounded by social crises like homelessness, addictions and mental health, are over-stressing our emergency management systems. However, as a society we cannot let this reality become an excuse.

    In response, the World Health Organization (WHO) has called for community engagement. And yet, despite a thriving legacy of volunteerism, Canada is lagging behind. Canada is the only G7 country without a national health security and emergency agency. And without such coordinating agency, communities are left to scramble when emergencies strike.

    When emergencies arise, the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) are often called up to provide much needed support. However, the military is supposed to be called upon only when demand exceeds provincial capacity. Yet provinces have come to view the CAF as their first, rather than their last resort. Every time the CAF is called for assistance, it diverts time and resources away from attending to Canada’s national security tasks.

    If not the CAF, then what should be the source of this labour? There are four basic models Canada could follow. One of them pertains to mobilizing volunteer and skilled labour at the community level. The reality is that ordinary citizens always find their way to get involved, making emergency management a community concern. This is what the WHO refers to as a “whole-of-society approach.”

    Those in charge of devising the national emergency management strategy are confronted with two major uncertainties: the evolution of grass-roots initiatives to tackle community emergencies, and the lack of integration of those initiatives into emergency management systems.

    Community volunteers still feel that they work as “add-ons” rather than from within emergency management plans. The massive participation of citizens during forest fires and flood emergencies, and the increasing involvement of ordinary citizens in volunteer emergency response groups confirm that Canada enjoys a vibrant civil society. With its access to local networks, and its ability to mobilize others, community volunteers represent a unique and cost-effective resource.

    The Cobourg Community Centre Clinic

    Volunteers in communities across Canada are emotionally invested to help and engage during emergencies, particularly when they perceive poor coordination or lapses in authority by official response organizations.

    This was the case, as colleagues and I recently documented, of the Cobourg Community Centre (CCC) COVID-19 vaccination response in Ontario.

    This community initiative involved 600 volunteers who stepped up to help their community build and run a vaccination clinic when the community sensed that vaccination plans were not moving quickly enough. The Cobourg Rotary Club in partnership with the Northumberland Hills Hospital devised this initiative which involved retrofitting the community centre to serve as a clinic, organizing, and managing volunteer tasks, and assisting health-care providers in distributing vaccines.

    We interviewed volunteers, health-care providers, Rotary club members, public health unit staff, hospital staff, local businesses and city employees to capture the stories behind the clinic. These stories became the catalyst for positioning the CCC as a model of community engagement for crisis response.

    Several lessons were identified but likely the most insightful one for formal emergency agencies and government was the realization that emergency response is not always a complex and difficult task. In the case of the CCC, it was not difficult to drive seniors to the vaccination clinic. It was not difficult for volunteers to assist with documentation at the mobile clinics. It was not difficult for retired teachers to use stuffed toys so children wouldn’t be scared by the vaccine. And it was not difficult for local businesses to donate materials and labour so that the clinic was built according to protocol.

    Therefore, instead of making emergency response seem unduly complex for volunteers, emergency agencies ought to welcome their involvement. In fact, it might even be wise for emergency agencies to learn about the way community volunteers respond – since it seems they can be effective – to welcome their input, and thus enhance a community’s emergency response capacity.

    Three strategies communities can implement to get started

    If you and others would like to help prepare your community to become an effective partner to official emergency responders, here are some strategies to help organize your efforts:

    1. Foster ongoing relationships with community partners, not just during crisis.

    Remember that everyone brings expertise to the table and that partnerships may involve groups you don’t always think of. Therefore, welcome community partners as part of task forces. It helps the community see a different side of government organizations despite their reputation for being slow to pivot, or too bureaucratic.

    2. Maintain a repository of community members’ skills, don’t leave it to chance.

    During crisis, this repository or database will facilitate decision-making regarding distribution of tasks among volunteers and discover unique skills that otherwise would go unnoticed in a large community.

    3. Communicate through diverse channels, even if it feels redundant.

    Emergencies are emotionally draining for everyone. Frequent feedback and debriefing help strengthening engagement and morale. Therefore, use multiple and existing channels, such as huddles, newsletters, appreciation events, etc., and encourage community leaders to spread information to the larger community.

    Communities have shown that they play a vital role to large and small emergency responses: from COVID-19 tracing and vaccination, to organizing post-flood volunteer recovery efforts via digital platforms. However, community initiatives are often not recognized by emergency response organizations, and as a result community volunteers are often under-utilized.

    This tension over how to engage community volunteers to effectively respond to crisis and work with formal emergency response teams requires we all change how we think.

    Contemporary emergency management demands all hands-on deck. As the Cobourg Community Centre clinic initiative demonstrated, instead of warding off community volunteers, the focus should be on ensuring they are ready to respond and educated on the scope of their involvement.

    Throughout her academic career, Sayra Cristancho has received tri-council research funding from the Canadian government as we all research funding from the Royal College of Physicians and Surgeons of Canada and internal research funding from Western University.

    – ref. How better community engagement can improve emergency management in Canada – https://theconversation.com/how-better-community-engagement-can-improve-emergency-management-in-canada-239042

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Oilsands workers are resistant to sustainable jobs, new research finds

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Parker Muzzerall, PhD Candidate, Department of Sociology, University of British Columbia

    Like it or not, the energy transition is happening.

    The International Energy Agency predicts global fossil fuel production will reach its peak by 2030. Governments around the world — including Canada’s — are racing to implement policies aimed at achieving a net-zero energy economy by 2050.

    To reach that target, Canada has a lot of work to do.

    In 2022 alone, Canada emitted 708 megatonnes of CO2-eq (carbon dioxide equivalent, which measures the global warming potential of different greenhouse gases). On the production side, oil and gas extraction accounted for 3.5 per cent of Canada’s GDP and the oil and gas industry directly employed around 150,000 Canadians.

    While oil and gas production isn’t going to stop tomorrow, or even by the end of this decade, Canada must put policies in place today to ensure that those most dependant on the oil and gas industry are supported as the country — and the world — moves away from fossil fuels.

    Sustainable jobs

    In June 2024, the Canadian government took an important first step at doing so by giving royal assent to the Sustainable Jobs Act. Over the next few years, the act is intended to create a suite of policy programs aimed at ensuring all Canadians have equal opportunity and access to decent, well-paying jobs in a net-zero future.

    While the Sustainable Jobs Act is primarily intended to support oil and gas workers, my recent study published in the journal Environmental Sociology identifies one important problem: oil and gas workers like the jobs they already have.

    Since the 2015 Paris Agreement, the phrase “just transition” has become common shorthand in policymaker, academic and activist circles to describe policies like the Sustainable Jobs Act that explicitly seek to support vulnerable citizens through the renewable energy transition.

    In fact, the Sustainable Jobs Act was originally referred to as the Canadian Just Transition plan before the name was changed after the idea of a “just transition” became the target of fierce opposition from Alberta Premier Danielle Smith.

    Talking to oilsands workers

    Smith’s opposition to the term “just transition,” and also to the eventual Sustainable Jobs Act, is rooted in a fundamental belief that the Canadian oil and gas industry is not going anywhere and that the federal government should not interfere in the lives of hard-working Albertans.

    These beliefs, and the emotions underlying them, made appearances in my interviews with oilsands workers, too.

    Through 18 interviews with a diverse cross-section of oilsands employees — ranging from accounts managers to process operators — it was obvious that these hard-working people also remain optimistic about the long-term economic viability and need for the oilsands industry.

    More importantly, they are also strongly opposed to the idea of a just transition because, as one participant put it, “it’s almost like an incentive to leave oil and gas behind.”

    Beneath this concern, the participants also expressed a belief and a sense of frustration that the federal government and Canadians in other parts of the country do not care about them and their feelings of being excluded from Canada’s vision for the future. These feelings were underscored by a strong sense of regional pride in the Fort McMurray community and its oilsands industry.

    While climate advocates may shake their heads — or fists — at these findings, the feelings of my participants make perfect sense when you consider that, for these workers, the energy transition represents not just a threat to their livelihood but a threat to their community and way of life.

    As multiple participants made clear, without the oilsands, Fort McMurray would become a “ghost town.”

    Localizing transition policies

    So, what should policymakers and climate advocates committed to an equitable energy transition do with the knowledge that the workers for whom sustainable jobs are intended are not, in fact, all that interested in sustainable jobs?

    The answer lies, at least in part, in reframing how we think about transition policies.

    Large, national-level efforts like the Sustainable Jobs Act are effective at setting high-level policy priorities. But without specific plans to account for the vast geographic diversity in the Canadian energy economy, policy packages like this can also drive regional animosity by making some communities feel like decarbonization “sacrifice zones.”

    Instead, we need to embed transition planning within a place-based approach to regional and community development. This means creating pathways for all communities to thrive in a low-carbon future. This is particularly true for single-resource and rural communities with economies that are often highly reliant on fossil fuels and tend to be located farther away from green jobs.

    It’s easy for these regions to feel excluded from Canada’s vision for a net-zero future. And that’s not fair. No community should be decarbonized into a ghost town.

    Passing the Sustainable Jobs Act was an important first step. Creating sustainable jobs that are regionally accessible, locally meaningful and economically desirable is the next big hurdle.

    Parker Muzzerall receives funding from The Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. Oilsands workers are resistant to sustainable jobs, new research finds – https://theconversation.com/oilsands-workers-are-resistant-to-sustainable-jobs-new-research-finds-239057

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Struggling to make decisions at work? Learn how to build confidence

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Leda Stawnychko, Assistant Professor of Strategy and Organizational Theory, Mount Royal University

    A lack of experience often causes new leaders to hold back, intimidated by the fear of making mistakes. (Shutterstock)

    One of the most daunting tasks for new leaders is making decisions that impact others. Although the average person makes thousands of conscious decisions each day — some estimates suggest as many as 35,000 — when it comes to making decisions in the workplace, many hesitate.

    A lack of experience often causes new leaders to hold back, intimidated by the fear of making mistakes. The stakes can feel high, as their choices can have far-reaching consequences, not only for themselves but also for the organization and its employees.

    New leaders might face decisions such as delegating responsibilities among team members, prioritizing projects with limited resources or managing conflicts between employees.

    With time and practice, leaders learn to develop decisiveness — the ability to listen to their intuition for making effective, quick decisions. Decisiveness is not about being rash, but about having the confidence to act based on evidence and experience.

    Effective decision-makers balance competing priorities and options while staying deeply aware of the needs of their stakeholders, from employees and colleagues to customers and investors. Once they reach a decision, they follow through with firm, resolute action.

    A bar above the rest

    What sets effective leaders apart is their ability to consistently make decisions that drive organizational success. These leaders understand the difference between operational and strategic decisions, and how each serves a different purpose.

    Operational decisions deal with immediate concerns, focusing on day-to-day activities that require quick responses to keep the business running smoothly. For example, an operational decision might involve addressing a staffing shortage, resolving a technical issue or adjusting a production schedule.

    Strategic decisions, on the other hand, are more complex, involve higher risks and require a broader perspective. They focus on the future direction of the organization and may involve a careful assessment of external factors, such as launching a new product or restructuring a department.

    Building decision-making skills

    But how do emerging leaders develop the skill to confidently make decisions, especially when there are many possible options? To build a strong foundation for decisive leadership, consider these three practical strategies:

    1. Clarify your values

    Understanding your core values is crucial for effective and ethical decision-making. When you and your staff are clear on what matters most to you, decision-making becomes easier.

    For example, if you believe in transparency, you will communicate the decision-making process and outcomes to your team. They will trust that even if they don’t all agree with your decision, they’ll be informed promptly and consistently.

    To gain clarity about your values, reflect on past decisions, consider what felt right or wrong, and identify common themes that guided your actions. You can also use one of the many free assessments available online.

    ‘How to make faster decisions’ from TED’s the Way We Work video series.

    2. Use a decision-making framework

    There are several tools to help guide confident decision-making, especially early in your career. One simple and effective option is the 5 Ws Framework.

    The framework helps leaders think through these essential questions: Who will be affected? What are the available options? When does the decision need to be made? Why is this decision necessary? And how will the decision be executed?

    Using this framework helps emerging leaders quickly assess all angles of a situation and make thoughtful decisions that ensure no critical factors are missed.

    3. Learn from your network

    One of the most effective ways to develop leadership skills is by learning from others. Observe how your peers and more experienced leaders make decisions, ask them insightful questions and seek their feedback on your own decisions.

    Reflecting on your interactions with them can help you refine your decision-making style and identify areas for growth. It can also help you become more comfortable with ambiguity, risk and uncertainty. The support from your network will boost your confidence and provide much-needed encouragement in times of doubt.

    Other things to keep in mind

    Leaders in AI-integrated workplaces will need not only strong decision-making skills but also the ability to apply a critical ethical lens.

    Artificial intelligence offers many opportunities to accelerate decision-making and improve efficiency. However, the interconnectedness of algorithms, people and data also brings with it complex ethical and sustainability problems.

    To avoid the unintended consequences of AI such as algorithmic bias or privacy violations, leaders across all sectors must carefully evaluate the ethical implications of all decisions and ensure they align with principles of fairness and long-term sustainability.

    An explanation of AI ethics from IBM Technology.

    In technology-dependent workplaces, emotional intelligence becomes a crucial asset. Leaders who are self-aware and in tune with their emotions can pause to make thoughtful, deliberate decisions, instead of reacting impulsively.

    Mindfulness practices, such as deep breathing and meditation, can help maintain focus and clarity, particularly in situations of high pressure. A clear and centred mind allows leaders to make decisions that align with ethical standards and the long-term interests of people, the planet and profit.

    As you continue to develop your leadership skills, be patient with yourself and remember that leader development is a life-long journey of growth. To help you stay sharp and avoid decision fatigue, prioritize self-care taking time to rest, recharge and reflect.

    By practicing these strategies, staying true to your values, and leaning on your network, you’ll build the confidence you need to tackle any challenge that comes your way. Embrace the process, take care of yourself and trust that each decision you make brings you closer to becoming the decisive leader you aspire to be.

    Leda Stawnychko receives funding from SSHRC.

    MacDonald Oguike does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Struggling to make decisions at work? Learn how to build confidence – https://theconversation.com/struggling-to-make-decisions-at-work-learn-how-to-build-confidence-239183

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: B.C.’s plan for involuntary addiction treatment is a step back in our response to the overdose crisis

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kora DeBeck, Professor, School of Public Policy; Dorothy Killam Fellow; CIHR Applied Public Health Chair, Simon Fraser University

    British Columbia Premier David Eby recently announced that his government plans to open highly secure facilities where people struggling with mental health, serious brain injuries and severe addictions will receive involuntary care.

    The B.C. government describes the move as a new phase of its response to the addiction crisis that includes a promise to change the law to “ensure that people, including youth, can and should receive care when they are unable to seek it themselves.”

    Unregulated drugs kill an average of six British Columbians every day. Since a public health emergency was declared in 2016, more than 15,000 people in B.C. have died from consuming unregulated drugs.

    Interventions and services

    Policymakers along with affected communities are struggling to identify, implement and scale up necessary interventions and services. Many highlight that we need all the tools in our toolkit to respond to this unprecedented crisis.

    Currently, involuntary admissions to care facilities are possible for people with a “disorder of the mind” through B.C.’s Mental Health Act. Between 2011-12 and 2020-21, the number of voluntary admissions in B.C. remained relatively stable (10,000 to 12,000) but involuntary admissions increased from 11,000 to more than 17,000 during this time period.

    Expanding involuntary care to people with addictions is intuitively appealing to some. Supporters of the idea position it as compassionate intervention that keeps the most vulnerable safe. But drug addiction and treatment are complex.

    While parents, policymakers and others rightfully want to do everything they can to protect young people from harmful drugs, in the long run, involuntary treatment will cause more harm than good.

    Involuntary treatment is dangerous

    Scientific evidence is lacking that supports involuntary addiction treatment as an effective approach for reducing substance use and related harms among vulnerable populations. A 2020 study of more than 3,000 people who use drugs in Vancouver found no significant improvements in substance use outcomes among those who were coerced into addiction treatment compared to people who received no treatment.

    We also know that substance dependence is a complex chronic condition and relapse is common. Relapse after a period of abstinence is a particularly dangerous time due to reduced tolerance. Indeed, the risk of overdose death has been found to be highest immediately after discharge from compulsory care, voluntary treatment and hospitals, as well as upon release from prison.

    A lack of effectiveness paired with serious increased risk of a fatal overdose, particularly in the era of illicit fentanyl, are not the only weaknesses of involuntary treatment for people with addictions.

    Involuntary treatment can undermine trust

    Accounts from young people who have experienced being coerced into treatment highlight that involuntary care can be counterproductive and risks pushing vulnerable young people away from the very services they need most.

    After consulting with young people who use drugs, the B.C. Representative for Children and Youth in 2021 cautioned that involuntary care “may create distress in young people to the extent that they may come to distrust the health-care system and be less inclined to seek support when it is needed.”

    Research scientist Danya Fast, who has more than a decade of experience working with young people who use drugs, has described seeing “the lengths that some young people would go to in order to evade or escape from [institutional] places, often with devastating effects. I knew that even the threat of involuntary hospitalization could lead some to avoid calling 911 if someone was overdosing and needed help.”

    Furthermore, a 2023 qualitative study with parents who resorted to involuntary treatment in Alberta describes how for some, forcing their child into treatment harmed their relationship, and for many, did not result in improvements in their children’s risky substance use behaviours.

    Addiction treatment in the era of fentanyl

    In the context of forced addiction treatment, it’s important to recognize that the effectiveness of current medications for opioid dependence (typically methadone and suboxone) is limited, particularly for young people.

    In a study among young people who used opioids in Vancouver between 2005-2018, initiating an opioid agonist therapy (primarily methadone or suboxone) was not found to be protective for non-fatal overdose. In addition, 60 per cent of young people who initiated methadone prematurely discontinue their treatment.

    This is consistent with emerging evidence from B.C. indicating that retention on methadone and suboxone have both been consistently declining over the last decade, which corresponds to the emergence of illicitly manufactured fentanyl in the province.

    Given the volatility of street drugs and increasing exposure to and dependence on highly potent fentanyl, the clinical management of opioid dependence is increasingly complex. This reality makes forcing people into addiction treatment against their will particularly concerning.

    There is also widespread evidence that the existing voluntary addiction treatment system is inadequate and fails to provide appropriate care. It is our view that resources are better directed towards improving the existing voluntary treatment system and ensuring there are comprehensive supports available throughout the continuum of care.

    Alternatives to involuntary treatment

    The safety of our children and communities would be enhanced if governments strengthened and expanded the voluntary treatment system and evidence-based prevention programs. Substance dependence is a chronic relapsing condition. Therefore, accessible harm reduction programs and addressing the toxic supply of drugs are critical steps to prevent overdose deaths and other drug related harms.

    B.C.’s provincial health officer issued a report in July 2024 outlining how a public health approach could be leveraged to provide alternatives to the toxic drug supply.

    While some may think we have already tried drug regulation, current prescribed “safe” supply programs include less than five per cent of the estimated 115,000 people in B.C. with an opioid use disorder.

    Analyses of overdose fatalities also indicate that the majority of people who died from drug poisonings did not have a diagnosed opioid use disorder or use opioids on a daily basis. These individuals would not have been eligible for existing prescribed safe supply.

    This underscores that current initiatives are not reaching the vast majority of the population at risk of a toxic drug poisoning. There are also many different approaches and models that could be considered for drug regulation.

    As we have outlined previously, innovation and transformational policy action to strictly regulate the production, distribution and consumption of currently illegal drugs is a promising way forward.



    Read more:
    Drug prohibition is fuelling the overdose crisis: Regulating drugs is the way out

    We empathize and relate to parents and caregivers who want to do everything possible to protect their children. However, we cannot “treat” our way out of our current crisis and involuntary treatment is a particularly risky and harmful tool.

    Evidence-based interventions across the pillars of early prevention, voluntary treatment and harm reduction, along with rigorous drug regulation that tightly controls the production, distribution and consumption of currently illegal drugs, will give us the most control over the toxic drug supply. This mix of foundational and innovative public health tools will be best positioned to reduce risky substance use and related health and social harms.

    Kora DeBeck receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the US National Institutes of Health and the National Killam Program. She is also a Research Scientist with the BC Centre on Substance Use.

    Perry Kendall was a cofounder of Fair Price Pharma, a not-for-profit dedicated to providing low-cost Canadian access to diacetylmorphine morphine as a treatment option for individuals whose treatment needs are not met by first-line available medications for opioid substance use disorder. He is no longer on the board, but remains a vocal advocate for the expansion of evidence-based therapeutics for opioid substance use disorder.

    – ref. B.C.’s plan for involuntary addiction treatment is a step back in our response to the overdose crisis – https://theconversation.com/b-c-s-plan-for-involuntary-addiction-treatment-is-a-step-back-in-our-response-to-the-overdose-crisis-239367

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Netflix’s Monsters is ‘murder porn’ at its worst. It comes at a cost to real victims – and the truth

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Xanthe Mallett, Forensic Criminologist, University of Newcastle

    Netflix

    Are we products of nature or nurture?

    That’s the age-old question at the heart of Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan’s new Netflix release, Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menéndez Story. The show focuses on the 1989 murders of José and Kitty Menéndez by their sons Erik and Lyle.

    The prosecution convinced a jury the two brothers were cold-blooded killers, driven by the desire to access their parents’ wealth. The brothers, meanwhile, claim to be victims of physical, emotional and sexual abuse at the hands of their parents – and say the killings were therefore self-defence.

    What’s the truth? Perhaps both.

    Javier Bardem and Chloë Sevigny play the roles of the parents, José and Kitty.
    Netflix

    Creating the image of a ‘monster’

    The case details are well known. In fact, I have taught this case to my own criminology students as an example of the victim-offender overlap, as clearly these brothers existed in a very dysfunctional family.

    On August 20 1989, brothers Lyle (then 21) and Erik (then 18) shot and killed their parents in their Beverly Hills mansion. They faced two trials. The first one in 1993 saw the brothers tried separately and ended in two hung juries and subsequent mistrials.

    In the second trial, which began in 1995, the pair were tried together. In 1996 they were found guilty of first-degree murder and conspiracy to commit murder, and sentenced to life in prison without the possibility of parole.

    Interestingly, the prosecution raised new objections to the admission of a large amount of defence evidence in the second trial, so the judge consequently excluded much of the evidence of abuse.

    This essentially dismantled the brothers’ entire defence, which was predicated on the fact they killed their parents out of fear, after they threatened to expose their father for serious and protracted physical, sexual and emotional abuse.

    In their second trial, Erik and Lyle were found guilty of murdering their parents and sentenced to life without parole.
    Netflix

    The Netflix series has created significant controversy. It documents a version of events leading up to the murders, including detailed histories of both Lyle’s and Erik’s sexual abuse, as well as the crimes themselves and subsequent trials.

    In the series, the brothers are portrayed in a homoerotic and incestuous way. For context, back in 1995 Lyle testified that he sexually offended against Erik, but this was against the background of the alleged sexual abuse from their father.

    Monsters, on the other hand, shows the brothers having an incestuous relationship as adults. The brothers deny this and there’s little evidence to support it.

    While the pair is sometimes painted in a sympathetic light, at other times the viewer is led to question whether greed was their true motive.

    Erik Menéndez has slammed the series, saying it walks back on decades of understanding of the devastating impacts sexual abuse has on male victims.

    I have to agree.

    The brothers didn’t just kill their parents and call it a day. These murders were incredibly brutal. As a criminologist, it looked to me like they were trying to obliterate their parents.

    José was shot in the back of the head, execution-style, while Kitty was shot a total of ten times, including one shot directly to her face. Such crimes are generally not motivated by money; they tend to be driven by something much deeper.

    After their parents’ deaths, the Menéndez brothers appeared to be spending their inheritance extravagantly – a point that later contributed to the prosecutor’s case against them.
    Netflix

    Murder porn at its worst

    This case can be seen through the ghoulish eyes of “murder porn”. The first trial, which was televised in 1993, went viral on TikTok in 2021, engaging a new generation of fans.

    Watching the footage from the 1990s, some of us will remember the legions of screaming girls who welcomed the handsome brothers to court. It was more like a scene from a boyband concert than a brutal double-murder trial.

    Whether you believe the brothers are cold-blooded and opportunistic killers, or victims of serious child abuse, will influence your take on the ongoing interest in the case and the portrayal in Monsters.

    Ari Graynor plays Leslie Abramson, the lawyer who represented Erik in both trials.
    Netflix

    Monsters isn’t the first example of Ryan Murphy and Ian Brennan cheapening real tragedies by turning them into voyeuristic and fictionalised television.

    The first instalment of the same series focused on Jeffrey Dahmer, a serial killer and sex offender who killed 17 men and boys between 1978 and 1991. Dahmer also engaged in necrophilia and cannibalism, so his brutal crimes were rich fodder for Netflix.

    Dahmer’s victims were openly critical, saying the retelling of the offender’s story diminished their loved ones’ suffering and revictimised them by opening old wounds.

    Regardless, Dahmer achieved critical acclaim with 13 nominations at the 2023 Emmy Awards, no doubt spurring the creators’ enthusiasm to further develop the franchise.

    The way forward

    The path to ethical true crime depiction lies in establishing facts and veering away from embellishing or glorifying the criminal or their crimes.

    Ideally, true crime should be victim focused and should achieve a purpose beyond entertainment. We have a lot to learn from criminal history, but these stories should be told in educational ways that respect and honour victims’ lives.

    While the real Menéndez family was dysfunctional, their portrayal in Monsters can only be considered sensational.
    Netflix

    We each have a responsibility to consume ethically produced true crime. Whether it’s TV series, films, podcasts or books, we vote for what we want through our engagement. My maxim is to choose content that reflects how I would want my story told, were I to ever become the focus of a true crime production.

    If you’re curious to hear more about the Menéndez brothers’ story, a new Netflix documentary called The Menéndez Brothers is set for release on October 7. Both Erik and Lyle have contributed to it through phone interviews conducted from prison – and they say there’s much that hasn’t been told.

    Xanthe Mallett does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Netflix’s Monsters is ‘murder porn’ at its worst. It comes at a cost to real victims – and the truth – https://theconversation.com/netflixs-monsters-is-murder-porn-at-its-worst-it-comes-at-a-cost-to-real-victims-and-the-truth-239596

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Mixing it up: hybrid work models can offer the best of both worlds for worker wellbeing and productivity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Blumenfeld, Director, Centre for Labour, Employment and Work, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon sparked debate on the future of work in New Zealand this week when he ordered public service employees back to the office.

    But Luxon’s edict neglects a broader transformation in work culture.

    Work from home (WFH) arrangements have grown considerably over the past decade, propelled by an increase in dual-income households and rapid technological advancements.

    The COVID pandemic acted as a catalyst for further change, proving that many jobs could successfully be performed remotely.

    Our upcoming article in the New Zealand Journal of Employment Relations addresses the pros and cons of remote work. We highlight how a hybrid model – mixing days in the office with days working from home – can improve wellbeing, engagement and productivity.

    We found embracing a hybrid approach may lead to better outcomes as society shifts with technology and employment expectations. And, despite the prime minister’s demands on public service workers, it may be too late to go back.

    Embracing flexibility

    Under current rules, employees can request flexible working arrangements. Employers must provide valid reasons if they decline the request.

    According to a 2023 survey from Human Resources New Zealand, 40% of HR professionals noted productivity gains as a critical advantage of WFH arrangements.

    And some professional organisations have embraced work from home or hybrid work arrangements.

    The New Zealand Law Association, for example, has emphasised the significant benefits of flexible work for their members, including increased employee engagement, productivity, and overall wellbeing.

    A report from Te Kawa Mataaho Public Service Commission noted the public service’s success in delivering quality services during the pandemic while working remotely.

    The commission’s current guidance on hybrid work arrangements supports flexibility that allows working from home to focus and working together when necessary.

    Does WFH reduce efficiency?

    Luxon argues forcing workers back to the office will promote efficiency. But there is little evidence suggesting New Zealand’s productivity has significantly declined with WFH or hybrid arrangements.

    Instead, we found office-only arrangements risked introducing new inefficiencies for the government. These included new layers of permissions and reporting on arrangements that have already been agreed to.

    The assumption that office work suits everyone is also contradicted by experiences during and after COVID.

    During the first year of the pandemic, many workers felt the void of casual interactions that once sparked creativity. They also struggled with isolation. This was especially pronounced for caregivers, often women, who had to juggle professional duties with increased childcare responsibilities.

    Despite this, a University of Otago survey conducted during the pandemic noted 67% of participants preferred a hybrid work model.

    Many expressed optimism regarding remote work’s continuation, with significant portions reporting stable or increased productivity, although some struggled with home distractions.

    And our research found taking a hybrid approach to work – with one or more days at home – reduced the risks from professional and social isolation and improved collaboration.

    Opportunities to work at home some of the time also allowed time for focused work, reduced commuting time and improved wellbeing.

    Boosting productivity from home

    Luxon’s assertion that working from home is “not an entitlement” aligns with traditional views on work. These include the belief that time at a desk is a measurement of productivity, rather than measuring the outcomes from work.

    However, a growing body of evidence indicates remote work can elevate both productivity and employee satisfaction.

    Eliminating daily commutes allows employees to redirect time toward focused work, positively impacting job satisfaction and mental wellbeing.

    Moreover, remote work fosters inclusivity, enabling organisations to source talent from a broader geographic area, which in turn enhances diversity and innovation.

    A report from McKinsey & Company found businesses adopting flexible work arrangements are better positioned to navigate future uncertainties, sustaining or even boosting productivity.

    A survey by the Australian Council of Trade Unions exploring WFH revealed nearly 48% of participants experienced enhanced productivity, attributed in part to the elimination of commuting.

    However, it also highlighted challenges. Some 40% of respondents said they were facing longer work hours, which can lead to burnout. Addressing these issues is essential to maintaining employee wellbeing.

    The future of work

    Instead of enforcing strict office attendance, leaders should adapt to the changing work landscape.

    Promoting flexible arrangements can foster a more productive and engaged workforce, ultimately benefiting New Zealand’s public service in today’s dynamic environment.

    Balancing both office and remote work presents the most promising path forward.

    Joanne Crawford receives funding from the Health Research Council and the NZ Industrial Relations Foundation Trust.

    Roya Gorjifard receives funding from the Victoria University of Wellington for Doctoral Research.

    Chris Peace and Stephen Blumenfeld do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Mixing it up: hybrid work models can offer the best of both worlds for worker wellbeing and productivity – https://theconversation.com/mixing-it-up-hybrid-work-models-can-offer-the-best-of-both-worlds-for-worker-wellbeing-and-productivity-239710

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The government is reviewing negative gearing and capital gains tax, but this won’t be enough to fix our housing shortage

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Cull, Associate professor, Western Sydney University

    Negative gearing and capital gains tax are back on the national agenda as Australians deal with a housing crisis and politicians look for ways to tackle the issue and win voters’ support at the upcoming election.

    The Labor government confirmed this week the tax concessions were being reviewed. Meanwhile, the government is struggling to pass its Help to Buy housing assistance legislation through the Senate.

    The Help to Buy legislation is aimed at helping first home buyers on low and middle incomes purchase their first home. The government would contribute up to 40% of the home purchase price and require only a 2% deposit from buyer. Buyers could eventually buy back the government’s equity share.

    But the legislation has stalled with the Greens wanting more including rent caps and pulling back negative gearing while the Coalition says the government “shouldn’t be in the business of co-owning people’s homes”.

    The review, revealed yesterday, could reportedly include a cap on the number of properties a person could negatively gear. The changes would not affect anyone who is currently negatively geared.

    Negative gearing lets taxpayers claim deductions on their tax for the expenses relating to owning an investment property. They can save on tax as the property potentially rises in value. They can also be eligible for a reduced capital gains tax when they sell the property.

    But any changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax policies could face further opposition – depending on how they are implemented. The crucial issue is whether the changes free up enough housing stock and make it more affordable for buyers and renters.

    Home ownership in Australia

    Based on National Housing Supply and Affordability Council data, home ownership across most age groups has been declining since the 1970s.

    Younger households, aged between 25 and 34 years, are hardest hit, having 34% of household income spent on mortgage costs in 2022–23.

    About 67% of households in Australia are home owners, and the remainder renters. While the proportion of owners with a mortgage has increased since 1994, so too has the proportion of private renters.

    Size of the investment market

    Just under 10% of all taxpayers negatively geared their properties in 2020–21 and more than 70% of property investors have only one investment property.

    While there have been calls for changes to negative gearing policy to cap the number of investment properties at six, this would impact about only 20,000 individual property investors.

    Changes to capital gains tax

    Suggestions to increase capital gains tax (CGT) need to be considered carefully, given that:

    • there is no solid evidence to show that increasing CGT will increase housing supply and in fact, it may have the opposite effect by limiting rental housing available

    • any change to CGT legislation also impacts other investments (such as shares), as the CGT discount also applies to other capital gains

    • multiple investment properties are often held within self-managed superannuation funds (SMSFs) which are subject to different CGT rules and also benefit from superannuation tax concessions

    • the rapid increase in housing prices over recent years is likely to result in very large amounts of CGT being paid on investment properties, even with the current 50% CGT discount.

    Other ways to improve affordability and availability

    Policy discussions around housing affordability and availability invariably lead to suggestions to change how negative gearing and capital gains tax operate. However, taxation policy is not the only solution available.

    Another suggestion put forward is to allow first home buyers to use their superannuation for deposits.

    Regardless of one’s position on accessing superannuation for something other than retirement, this suggestion is not viable for low to middle income earners. These households are unlikely to have substantial superannuation balances. Also, they don’t have the earning capacity to service a mortgage for the outstanding amount.

    There is currently a push to use self-managed super funds SMSFs to enable home ownership. This would effectively allow individuals to become tenants in homes owned by their super funds.

    However, the complexities of superannuation law mean this could cause big problems for people whose relationships break down.

    Considering the generational wealth that currently exists in property, the government could consider making it easier for parents or grandparents to gift (or sell) property to their children or grandchildren, in certain circumstances.

    This area has not yet been sufficiently explored.

    What needs to change

    The real issue of housing affordability is multifaceted, and any change needs to be done as part of a broader policy.

    It is likely that on its own, changes to negative gearing and/or capital gains tax will not achieve the intended outcome to make housing more accessible and affordable for Australians who want to buy a home.

    While the debate around the best way to achieve housing affordability and accessibility continues, and while there are statistics that tell us about the current housing crisis, one crucial thing that is missing is the voice of the very people that any new housing policy should be designed to assist.

    More consultation is needed with younger age groups and low to middle income earners who are struggling with high rent and unable to purchase their own home.

    Australia desperately needs bold new innovative housing policies that do not rely solely on the taxation system but that consider a raft of measures that meet the housing needs of everyday Australians.

    Michelle Cull is co-founder of the Western Sydney University Tax Clinic which has received funding from the Australian Taxation Office as part of the National Tax Clinic Program. Michelle Cull is a member of CPA Australia and the Financial Advice Association Australia. Michelle is also an academic member of UniSuper’s Consultative Committee and volunteers as Chair of the Macarthur Advisory Council for the Salvation Army Australia.

    – ref. The government is reviewing negative gearing and capital gains tax, but this won’t be enough to fix our housing shortage – https://theconversation.com/the-government-is-reviewing-negative-gearing-and-capital-gains-tax-but-this-wont-be-enough-to-fix-our-housing-shortage-239813

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Our electricity workforce must double to hit the 2030 renewables target. Energy storage jobs will soon overtake those in coal and gas

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jay Rutovitz, Research Director, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney

    Wanwajee Weeraphukdee/Shutterstock

    The electricity workforce will need to double in five years to achieve Australia’s 2030 renewable energy target, our new report finds. More than 80% of these jobs will be in renewables. Jobs in energy storage alone will overtake domestic coal and gas jobs (not including the coal and gas export sector) in the next couple of years.

    The Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) updates its Integrated System Plan every two years. It’s a blueprint for the energy transition from coal to renewable energy. The plan lays out scenarios for how the electricity system might change to help put in place all the elements needed to make the transition happen.

    AEMO and the RACE for 2030 co-operative research centre commissioned the Institute for Sustainable Futures to undertake modelling on the workforce needed for this transition. The “step change” scenario in the Integrated System Plan is broadly aligned with the 2030 renewables target. Under this scenario, we found the electricity workforce would need to grow from 33,000 to peak at 66,000 by 2029.

    Rooftop solar and batteries together are projected to account for over 40% of these jobs. Wind farms will employ around one-third and solar farms just under 10%. Jobs would also treble in transmission line construction to connect renewables in regional areas to cities and other states in the next few years.

    Job projections in the National Electricity Market under the ‘step change’ scenario that aligns with the 2030 renewables target.
    Author provided

    Job growth would surge in a ‘renewable energy superpower’

    In the “green energy export” scenario, Australia becomes a “renewable energy superpower”. The country uses renewable energy to export green hydrogen and power heavy industry. In this scenario, the electricity workforce would almost treble to 96,000 by the late 2020s.

    By 2033, after construction peaks, more than half of electricity sector jobs will be in operations and maintenance. This applies to both the step change and green energy export scenarios.

    A significant employment downturn is projected during the 2030s. But in the green energy export scenario jobs then climb steeply again to a peak of 120,000. This projection reflects AEMO’s expectations of when green export growth will occur.

    New South Wales is projected to have the most renewable energy jobs in the 2020s. However, Queensland would become the largest state for renewable jobs (especially in wind farms) in the green energy export scenario.

    Projected total job numbers by scenario.
    Author provided

    What are the other possibilities?

    “Progressive change” is another scenario in the Integrated System Plan. For this scenario, we modelled slower growth in renewable energy. It reflects constraints on the economy and supply chains (including labour and minerals) for renewables.

    In an “enhanced manufacturing” scenario, local renewable energy manufacturing increases. Our modelling found it could create a peak of 5,000 extra jobs.

    Importantly, these projections don’t include upstream jobs in supply chains for the sector (for example, increased mining to supply the resources that renewables need) or electrification of homes.

    Creating this many jobs is very challenging

    Our modelling shows the workforce needs to grow very rapidly to make Australia’s energy transition happen. Unfortunately, the challenges of building this workforce are daunting. They include:

    • there’s a shortage of almost all key occupations in demand for the electricity sector – electricians, engineers, construction managers – according to Australia’s Skills Priority List

    • “extraordinary growth” forecast by Infrastructure Australia in other major infrastructure projects, such as transport, which will compete for many of the same skilled workers

    • under AEMO’s scenarios, employment will be subject to boom-bust cycles, which increases the risk of skill shortages and damaging impacts, such as housing shortages, in regional areas

    • Australia has relied heavily on skilled migrants – and will look to do so again – but many parts of the world are chasing the same workers.

    The International Energy Agency has noted:

    Labour and skills shortages are already translating into project delays, raising concerns that clean energy solutions will be unable to keep pace with demand to meet net zero targets.

    What can be done to avoid skill shortages?

    Some action has been taken to increase the workforce. The federal government, for instance, is subsidising apprentices under the New Energy Apprenticeship program.

    But action isn’t happening at the scale and pace required.

    What else can be done?

    Firstly, Jobs Skills Australia and Powering Skills Organisation (which oversees energy skills training) have outlined ways to increase the system’s capacity to train more skilled workers. This includes creating better pathways into renewable energy for students, especially in recognised Renewable Energy Zones.

    Secondly, Jobs Skills Australia has noted the need for renewable energy businesses to increase their intakes of apprentices. It recommends expanding the Australian Skills Guarantee to include generation and transmission projects.

    The guarantee has set mandatory targets for apprentices or trainees to complete 10% of labour hours on Commonwealth-funded major construction and information technology projects (A$10 million plus). It could also be applied to major government funding programs for renewable energy and transmission. These include:

    • the Capacity Investment Scheme, a government tender program to support a large volume of new renewables and storage projects

    • Rewiring the Nation, a $20 billion fund for transmission lines

    • grants from the Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation.

    Thirdly, government tenders could moderate the peaks and troughs in employment by limiting the maximum and minimum volumes built each year.

    Fourthly, including more women and First Nations Australians can increase labour supply and workforce diversity. Only one-in-two First Nations Australians are employed compared to around two in three in the wider population. Yet they account for around one-in-ten people in some major Renewable Energy Zones.

    Government pre-employment programs, working with industry and First Nations groups, could also increase the supply of workers. These could have a dramatic social impact too.

    It’s a challenging problem whichever way you look at it. We need rapid change to build renewable energy capacity before coal plants retire and to tackle climate change. But that depends on growing the workforce amid skill shortages.

    There’s a range of ways to increase the supply of workers and improve local outcomes. But we are running out of time. Urgent action is needed.

    The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the RACE for 2030 CRC for the report upon which this article is based

    The Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology Sydney received funding from the Australian Energy Market Operator and the RACE for 2030 CRC for the report upon which this article is based.

    – ref. Our electricity workforce must double to hit the 2030 renewables target. Energy storage jobs will soon overtake those in coal and gas – https://theconversation.com/our-electricity-workforce-must-double-to-hit-the-2030-renewables-target-energy-storage-jobs-will-soon-overtake-those-in-coal-and-gas-239718

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why are we seeing more pandemics? Our impact on the planet has a lot to do with it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olga Anikeeva, Research Fellow, School of Public Health, University of Adelaide

    ImageFlow/Shutterstock

    Pandemics – the global spread of infectious diseases – seem to be making a comeback. In the Middle Ages we had the Black Death (plague), and after the first world war we had the Spanish flu. Tens of millions of people died from these diseases.

    Then science began to get the upper hand, with vaccination eradicating smallpox, and polio nearly so. Antibiotics became available to treat bacterial infections, and more recently antivirals as well.

    But in recent years and decades pandemics seem to be returning. In the 1980s we had HIV/AIDS, then several flu pandemics, SARS, and now COVID (no, COVID isn’t over).

    So why is this happening, and is there anything we can do to avert future pandemics?

    Unbalanced ecosystems

    Healthy, stable ecosystems provide services that keep us healthy, such as supplying food and clean water, producing oxygen, and making green spaces available for our recreation and wellbeing.

    Another key service ecosystems provide is disease regulation. When nature is in balance – with predators controlling herbivore populations, and herbivores controlling plant growth – it’s more difficult for pathogens to emerge in a way that causes pandemics.

    But when human activities disrupt and unbalance ecosystems – such as by way of climate change and biodiversity loss – things go wrong.

    For example, climate change affects the number and distribution of plants and animals. Mosquitoes that carry diseases can move from the tropics into what used to be temperate climates as the planet warms, and may infect more people in the months that are normally disease free.

    We’ve studied the relationship between weather and dengue fever transmission in China, and our findings support the same conclusion reached by many other studies: climate change is likely to put more people at risk of dengue.

    COVID was not the first pandemic, and is unlikely to be the last.
    Jaromir Chalabala/Shutterstock

    Biodiversity loss can have similar effects by disrupting food chains. When ranchers cleared forests in South America for their cattle to graze in the first half of the 20th century, tiny forest-dwelling, blood-feeding vampire bats suddenly had a smörgåsbord of large sedentary animals to feed on.

    While vampire bats had previously been kept in check by the limited availability of food and the presence of predators in the balanced forest ecosystem, numbers of this species exploded in South America.

    These bats carry the rabies virus, which causes lethal brain infections in people who are bitten. Although the number of deaths from bat-borne rabies has now fallen dramatically due to vaccination programs in South America, rabies caused by bites from other animals still poses a global threat.

    As urban and agricultural development impinges on natural ecosystems, there are increasing opportunities for humans and domestic animals to become infected with pathogens that would normally only be seen in wildlife – particularly when people hunt and eat animals from the wild.

    The HIV virus, for example, first entered human populations from apes that were slaughtered for food in Africa, and then spread globally through travel and trade.

    Meanwhile, bats are thought to be the original reservoir for the virus that caused the COVID pandemic, which has killed more than 7 million people to date.

    Climate change can affect the distribution of animals which carry disease, such as mosquitoes.
    Kwangmoozaa/Shutterstock

    Ultimately, until we effectively address the unsustainable impact we are having on our planet, pandemics will continue to occur.

    Targeting the ultimate causes

    Factors such as climate change, biodiversity loss and other global challenges are the ultimate (high level) cause of pandemics. Meanwhile, increased contact between humans, domestic animals and wildlife is the proximate (immediate) cause.

    In the case of HIV, while direct contact with the infected blood of apes was the proximate cause, the apes were only being slaughtered because large numbers of very poor people were hungry – an ultimate cause.

    The distinction between ultimate causes and proximate causes is important, because we often deal only with proximate causes. For example, people may smoke because of stress or social pressure (ultimate causes of getting lung cancer), but it’s the toxins in the smoke that cause cancer (proximate cause).

    Generally, health services are only concerned with stopping people from smoking – and with treating the illness that results – not with removing the drivers that lead them to smoke in the first place.

    Similarly, we address pandemics with lockdowns, mask wearing, social distancing and vaccinations – all measures which seek to stop the spread of the virus. But we pay less attention to addressing the ultimate causes of pandemics – until perhaps very recently.

    Often we treat the proximate causes of illness, but not the ultimate causes.
    Basil MK/Pexels

    A planetary health approach

    There’s a growing awareness of the importance of adopting a “planetary health” approach to improve human health. This concept is based on the understanding that human health and human civilisation depend on flourishing natural systems, and the wise stewardship of those natural systems.

    With this approach, ultimate drivers like climate change and biodiversity loss would be prioritised in preventing future pandemics, at the same time as working with experts from many different disciplines to deal with the proximate causes, thereby reducing the risk overall.

    The planetary health approach has the benefit of improving both the health of the environment and human health concurrently. We are heartened by the increased uptake of teaching planetary health concepts across the environmental sciences, humanities and health sciences in many universities.

    As climate change, biodiversity loss, population displacements, travel and trade continue to increase the risk of disease outbreaks, it’s vital that the planetary stewards of the future have a better understanding of how to tackle the ultimate causes that drive pandemics.

    This article is the first in a series on the next pandemic.

    Olga Anikeeva receives funding from Green Adelaide.

    Jessica Stanhope receives funding from the Ecological Health Network and Green Adelaide. She is affiliated with the Environmental Physiotherapy Association.

    Peng Bi receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, AusAID,

    Philip Weinstein receives funding from competitive external granting bodies. He is affiliated with Nature Foundation, Australian Entomological Society, and the South Australian Museum.

    – ref. Why are we seeing more pandemics? Our impact on the planet has a lot to do with it – https://theconversation.com/why-are-we-seeing-more-pandemics-our-impact-on-the-planet-has-a-lot-to-do-with-it-226827

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The ‘best comet of the year’ is finally here – here’s everything you need to know

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonti Horner, Professor (Astrophysics), University of Southern Queensland

    AstroStar/Shutterstock

    In January 2023, a new comet was discovered. Comets are found regularly, but astronomers quickly realised this one, called C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS), had the potential to be quite bright.

    Some hyperbolic reports have suggested it might be the “comet of the century”, but any astronomer will tell you the brightness of comets is notoriously hard to predict. As I explained last year, we’d have to wait until it arrived to be sure how bright it would become.

    Now, the time has come. Comet C/2023 A3 is currently visible with the naked eye in the morning sky in Australia and Aotearoa New Zealand, with its best yet to come in the next few weeks. And it does look promising. It’s unlikely to be the comet of the decade (never mind the comet of the century), but it will almost certainly become the best comet of the year.

    So where, and when, should you look to get your best views of this celestial visitor?

    A show in the morning, before sunrise

    At the moment, comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) is a morning object, rising around an hour and a half before sunrise. It is visible to the naked eye, but not yet spectacular. However, with binoculars you can easily see the comet’s dusty tail pointing away from the Sun.

    The comet will remain at about the same altitude in the morning sky until around September 30. It will then get closer to the horizon on each consecutive morning until it’s lost in the glare of the approaching dawn by October 6 or 7.

    If you want to spot the comet in the morning sky, look east. The sliders below will help you orient yourself and choose the best time to look, depending on your latitude.

    During this period, the comet should slowly brighten. It reaches its closest approach to the Sun (perihelion) on September 27, when it will be 58 million kilometres from our star.

    As it swings around the Sun, it will continue to approach Earth, and so should continue to brighten. The best show in the morning sky will likely be during the last couple of days of September and the first few days in October, before the comet is lost to view.

    A potential daylight comet

    Thanks to pure good fortune, comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will then pass almost directly between Earth and the Sun on October 9 and 10.

    This could cause a spectacular brightening of the comet, thanks to “forward scattering” caused by its dust. Imagine looking towards a bright light source through a cloud of dust grains. The grains nearest to the light source will scatter light from the source back towards you.

    As the comet swings between Earth and the Sun, it will be perfectly placed for this forward scattering process to occur. If the comet is particularly dusty, this could cause its apparent brightness to increase by up to 100 times.

    If it does, there’s a small chance the comet could briefly become visible in the daylight sky on October 9 and 10.

    However, it will be very close to the Sun in the sky, and incredibly hard to spot. Only the most experienced observers may be able to detect the comet at this time, and it requires a special technique. Do not try to stare at the Sun to see it.

    The best show could be after October 12

    After swinging between Earth and the Sun, the comet will appear in the evening sky. It will rapidly climb in the western sky, and should be a bright, naked-eye object for a few days from October 12. The sliders below will give you a sense of where to look.

    For the first few days of this period, the comet will still benefit from the forward scattering of sunlight, but this will decrease as it moves away.

    What about the tail?

    The positioning of the comet, Earth and the Sun in the Solar System means the comet’s tail will be streaming outwards, past our planet. This means it could grow to prodigious lengths in the night sky.

    The bulk of that tail will likely be too dim to see easily with the naked eye, but it could be a fantastic spectacle for photographers. Expect to see a wealth of comet images flooding the internet around the middle of October.

    As the days pass and the comet climbs higher, it will fade quite rapidly. It will likely become too faint to see with the naked eye, even for seasoned and experienced observers, before the end of October.

    At that point, the show will be over. Comet C/2023 A3 (Tsuchinshan-ATLAS) will continue to flee the inner Solar System, moving into the icy depths of space, never to return.

    How reliable are the predictions?

    At the moment, the comet is already bright enough to consider it the “comet of the year”, outshining comet 12P/Pons-Brooks from earlier this year.

    But remember the classic saying – comets are like cats. They have tails and will often surprise us. For now, comet C/2023 A3 is behaving itself. It’s brightening predictably, and putting on a good show.

    But comets that approach this closely to the Sun often fragment. This is impossible to predict, and far from guaranteed. If the comet did break up, it could become even more spectacular because of all the dust and gas it would release.

    The opposite could still happen, too. The comet could fail to brighten as much as we expect, although that seems unlikely at this stage.

    Whatever happens, we’re in for a fascinating few weeks of comet watching. Hopefully, a real spectacle awaits us.

    Jonti Horner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The ‘best comet of the year’ is finally here – here’s everything you need to know – https://theconversation.com/the-best-comet-of-the-year-is-finally-here-heres-everything-you-need-to-know-239300

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In a too-close-to-call US presidential election, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jeff Bleich, Professorial fellow, Jeff Bleich Centre for Democracy and Disruptive Technologies, Flinders University

    In countries with compulsory voting, such as Australia and many in Latin America, the system usually ensures an overwhelming majority of voters cast their ballots election after election.

    In the United States, it’s a very different story. Two-thirds of eligible voters turned out to vote in the 2020 presidential election – the highest rate since 1900. Turnout in presidential elections before 2020 tended to hover between 50% and 65%.

    Often, it’s the voters choosing to stay home on the couch who effectively decide an election’s outcome.

    Under the United States’ unusual Electoral College presidential voting system, the candidate who wins the most votes nationally does not necessarily win the election. Twice in the past 25 years, Democrats have won the popular vote in the presidential race and still lost the election. That includes Donald Trump’s win over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

    As such, victory depends on getting more voters “off the couch” in key battleground states where the decisive Electoral College votes are up for grabs. In those states, it doesn’t matter what percentage of people show up to vote, or how much a candidate wins by, it is winner take all.

    A voter who doesn’t vote, therefore, actually makes an active choice — they remove a vote from the candidate they would have likely chosen, and so give an important advantage to the person they would not have voted for.

    The “couch” is effectively where Americans go to vote against their self-interest.

    Who is more incentivised to vote?

    As this year’s presidential election between Trump and Kamala Harris approaches, we ask a simple question: whose “couch” will decide one of the most consequential elections in living memory?

    Recent research demonstrates that partisanship is an important driver of voter choice in presidential elections.

    The fact that the US is deeply divided is not news to most, but current survey data show how evenly split along partisan lines it actually is. With about 30% of Americans identifying as a Republican and 30% identifying as a Democrat, there is virtually no difference in the total number of voters who support each major party.

    The remaining 40% of Americans identify as “independent” – that is, not loyal to either major political party. Almost seven decades of research on the American voter shows, however, that independents heavily “lean” towards one party or the other, with about half leaning Republican and the other half leaning Democrat.

    One possible insight into which group has greater incentive to vote is polling on people’s dissatisfaction with their party’s candidate.

    According to the most recent Gallup Poll data, 9% of Republicans currently have an unfavourable opinion of Trump. In contrast, only 5% of Democrats have an unfavourable opinion of Harris.

    Partisan voters who are dissatisfied with their party candidate have a massive incentive to “stay on the couch” and refrain from voting. They don’t really want to vote for “the other team”, but they can’t stand their own team anymore either.

    For example, Republican women in the suburbs, veterans and traditional Republicans have started to abandon Trump over his stances on reproductive rights and national security, and his temperament. The Trump campaign clearly knows this. At a rally in New York a few days ago, he told attendees to “get your fat ass out of the couch” to go vote for him.

    Should these disaffected Republican and Republican-leaning voters stay home on November 5, Harris may well have a decisive edge over Trump.

    When the couch wins, America loses

    In 2016, Trump defied the polls and traditional voter turn-out trends by convincing some disaffected, working-class Democrats to stay on the couch, vote for an unelectable third party candidate or, in some cases, vote for him.

    Could this happen again? Or will Democrats be able to reverse this phenomenon by getting exhausted Republicans suffering Trump fatigue to stay home, while motivating everyone from Taylor Swift fans to “never Trumpers” to veterans of foreign wars to get out to vote.

    Recent trends suggest overall turnout will be comparatively high, in line with the past three federal US elections.

    Democrats have traditionally benefited from higher voter turn-out, but it is not as clear this is still the case in 2024. Recent research shows higher turnout rates seem to have favoured the Republican Party since 2016.

    Yet both parties still have significant numbers of people who don’t vote. According to the Pew Research Center, 46% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents didn’t vote in the past three elections (2018, 2020 and 2022), compared to the 41% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.

    So again, who sits on the couch matters. Inevitably, many of those who stay home will get precisely what they don’t want. When the couch wins, America loses.

    Jeff Bleich is a former US ambassador to Australia and a member of the National Security Leaders for America, a group of 700 former generals, admirals, service secretaries, ambassadors, and other national security professionals, that has endorsed Kamala Harris in the presidential election. He was also special counsel to President Barack Obama and served as chair of the Fulbright Foreign Scholarship Board under President Donald Trump and as a member of President Joe Biden’s (non-partisan) National Security Education Board.

    Rodrigo Praino receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Government Department of Defence, and SmartSat CRC.

    – ref. In a too-close-to-call US presidential election, will ‘couch-sitters’ decide who wins? – https://theconversation.com/in-a-too-close-to-call-us-presidential-election-will-couch-sitters-decide-who-wins-239394

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Business confidence in South Africa: how a 70-year-old survey has given early signals of the economy’s pulse

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Johann Kirsten, Director of the Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch University

    Business tendency surveys provide very useful indicators of trends within an economy. The information is available well before the official statistics, such as GDP growth, and provides insights into business dynamics that cannot be found elsewhere.

    For 70 years the Bureau for Economic Research at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University has been conducting business tendency surveys. Indeed, South Africa remains one of the few countries where these surveys are conducted by a non-state agency.

    The surveys cover a range of questions, tracking everything from activity to demand, selling prices to inventories, investment and also the constraints holding back investment. But the most important question is very simple: are you satisfied with prevailing business conditions? Respondents can only respond with a yes or a no. There is no scale, no maybe, no but. It is a pure gut feeling. This is the only true measure of business sentiment in South Africa.

    While it can be argued that at times of fast production growth sentiment is more upbeat (and vice versa during a recession), sentiment typically turns before you see production growth. Respondents to Bureau for Economic Research surveys know their business like the palm of their hand. They sense when something starts changing and know when they can turn cautiously optimistic about conditions even though activity is not there (yet). As illustrated in the figure below, confidence often turns before the business cycle phase changes from an upward to a downward phase (and the other way around).

    Changes in sentiment tell us a lot about investment intentions, as well as the potential for faster economic growth and job creation in the economy. If business people in South Africa are downbeat about business conditions, it is near impossible to see growth accelerate. Why build a new factory or employ workers if you are not, at the very least, satisfied with the environment you have to operate in today?

    While the survey process has changed over the past seven decades, the value of the insights has not. South Africa’s new government of national unity has promised to tackle the country’s structural constraints, with reforms aimed at improving electricity, infrastructure, water and logistics. By providing a reliable measure of sentiment, the survey will go a long way in assessing whether they are successful.

    Business confidence ahead of economic shifts

    While we survey a range of sectors, only the responses of a specific set of sectors are compiled into the so-called composite Business Confidence Index. This index is sponsored by Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) and is known as the RMB/BER BCI.

    The index looks at the responses of manufacturers, retailers, wholesalers, new vehicle dealers and main building contractors. These sectors represent the productive sectors of the economy and tend to lead the rest of the economy.

    So, if something changes here, one can be fairly sure that it will soon start changing in the rest of the economy. Manufacturers, for example, have a feel for both domestic and export demand conditions, which later trickle through the rest of the economy. New vehicle dealers will be the first to know when local consumers start holding their purse strings.

    In most sectors the survey also asks respondents about constraints to business conditions. We ask the same set of questions each quarter and have been doing so for decades. This gives us a very powerful, long-term time series of data. For example, over the last ten years, manufacturers have almost consistently seen the general political climate as the most serious constraint on business conditions.

    The Absa Manufacturing Survey shows that it’s a more serious constraint than insufficient demand or the short-term interest rate, despite the latter being at the highest level in 15 years. Interestingly, the political climate constraint fell sharply in the third quarter of 2024, following the formation of the government of national unity. The disruptions at local ports were also picked up by our surveys, with load-shedding top of mind for many respondents in 2023 (and before).

    The graph below shows a long-term series of business confidence. A reading of 100 would signal extreme optimism with every respondent satisfied with business conditions – this has never happened before. A reading of zero means not a single respondent is satisfied with business conditions. This, too, has not happened before, but we did see confidence fall to just 5 index points in the second quarter of 2020, the worst of the COVID-19 lockdowns, with many businesses forced to close temporarily. The BER surveys provided invaluable information about business dynamics in the formal economy during the pandemic and the recovery.

    Figure 1: RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI)

    The RMB/BER BCI edged up by three index points to 38 in the third quarter of 2024. This was the first survey after the formation of the new government, and some may have hoped for a bigger boost to sentiment. Still, underlying results suggest respondents are turning cautiously more optimistic about the future. For the first time since early 2022, most respondents across the different sectors expect business conditions to improve in 12 months’ time, instead of deteriorating (further).

    Current demand conditions, however, remained tough, which held back a bigger recovery in sentiment.

    A firm commitment by the new government of national unity to continue with structural reform aimed at alleviating the constraints on the South African economy and an effort to bring down the cost of doing business (by lowering the administrative burden, for example) would go a long way in supporting a more pronounced recovery in business confidence.

    Higher confidence will translate into faster economic growth over time.

    How the index is compiled

    Taking a step back, in 1954, and for many decades after that, everything at the BER was done by hand. The surveys were sent by post, and indices were painstakingly calculated as the responses trickled in. Some graphs were even drawn up by hand. Over time, more electronics became involved. South African postal services deteriorated to such an extent that relying on them was no longer feasible.

    The little pigeonholes for the postal letters at the BER offices were removed earlier this year and all survey responses are now received via email. Responses are weighted for firm and sector size, and we try to keep the survey as representative of the sectors as possible.

    It is becoming increasingly difficult to expand our panel in a world where inboxes are flooded with fly-by-night surveys and spam. Our close relationship with international bodies such as the Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys and our academic footing as a university research institute ensures that we continue to follow global best practices.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Business confidence in South Africa: how a 70-year-old survey has given early signals of the economy’s pulse – https://theconversation.com/business-confidence-in-south-africa-how-a-70-year-old-survey-has-given-early-signals-of-the-economys-pulse-237773

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Richard Holden says no interest rate fall likely for 12 months

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    For many Australians, the COVID-19 pandemic has become a fading memory as the world has moved away from lockdowns and masks. However, its lasting impacts, including persistent inflation, remain.

    Academic economists Steven Hamilton and Richard Holden, in their just-published book, Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism, examine how Australia fared in handling the COVID crisis in its economic and health policies.

    We’re joined on the podcast by Holden to talk about the book and also Australia’s economic outlook, during what has been a big week for economic news.

    On COVID, Hamilton and Holden found a mixed picture: Australia scored highly in its economic response but fell down on its vaccine procurement and provision of RATs.

    I think Treasury gave excellent advice to the Treasurer [Josh Frydenberg]  and he not only […] took that advice but was able to sell it to a sometimes sceptical cabinet. […] So I think it was good advice and strong leadership on the economic front. On the health front, I think the advice was really quite poor at times. I mean we make quite a point of Scott Morrison’s use of the phrase when it comes to vaccines “It’s not a race” when clearly it was a race. It was a race against the virus. It was a race to get vaccinated. It was a race to be able to reopen our economy.

    On the RBA and inflation, Holden agrees with this week’s decision to hold rates but believes they should have risen earlier at least once more:

    I have argued […] that late last year or early this year, the Reserve Bank should have raised rates at least one more time to get us closer to what happened in peer jurisdictions overseas, to try and beat inflation faster. The Reserve Bank has taken a different approach. They want to have interest rates peak, maybe a full percentage point lower than in places like the US, and they’re willing to tolerate inflation for longer.

    At least they’re not caving into political pressure from people like Jim Chalmers and Wayne Swan to precipitously cut interest rates and I give the governor, Michele Bullock, great credit for standing firm on that, including in her press conference remarks [on Tuesday].

    On when interest rates will start moving down, Holden gives a grim assessment:

    My view is the most likely case is very late in 2025, somewhere about 12 months from today. Again, it’s going to depend on the inflation numbers and I’d like nothing more [than] for us to be well inside the target band and for interest rates to be able to be moderated.

    I think it’s a real shame that we took a different strategy in Australia to what peer jurisdictions overseas did, which was raise rates more aggressively, take our medicine, have tamed inflation and now be cutting rates. That’s the story in the US and several other jurisdictions.

    Holden warns against RBA Governor Michele Bullock making predictions of future rate moves:

    Governor Bullock, I think, is at risk of repeating, albeit a milder version of, the mistake that Philip Lowe made in providing forward guidance. Now it’s not as dramatic as saying interest rates are not going to rise until 2024, which was sort of three years of forward guidance or thereabouts. Governor Bullock has fallen into, I think, a little bit of a trap by saying over six weeks ago that she and her colleagues on the board didn’t think that interest rates would be cut this calendar year.

    I don’t really understand what the virtue of her doing that was. I think that was probably, in hindsight, something that she may regret. [Although] I don’t think it will do any real damage because I think it’s a prediction that’s incredibly likely to come true.  

    On the government potentially making changes to negative gearing, Holden outlines why it could be a good idea:

    Getting rid of negative gearing would put potential owner-occupiers on a level playing field with investors at an auction. I think it’ll be very good news for people trying to move from the rental market into being owner-occupiers; I think it’ll be good news for the classic Australian dream. To be fair about it, the existence of negative gearing is something that puts downward pressure on rents. So negative gearing, in a funny way, is good for renters who are always going to rent but bad for renters who want to buy. So there are pros and cons.

    It was a good idea eight or nine years ago. I think it’s still a good idea today and I think it’s interesting that the government seems to be at least floating the test balloon.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Richard Holden says no interest rate fall likely for 12 months – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-richard-holden-says-no-interest-rate-fall-likely-for-12-months-239820

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Historic racism still negatively affects the way paintings of black people are perceived – as our study shows

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tobiasz Trawinski, Lecturer in psychology, Liverpool Hope University

    There is little doubt that historic racism has influenced the content and composition of several famous figurative paintings. In March 2024, this could be seen in the debate around the exhibition of the Rex Whistler mural, The Expedition in Pursuit of Rare Meats (1927), at the Tate Britain. Critics asked whether such artworks should remain on public display.

    There are several shocking elements of Rex Whistler’s mural, originally commissioned by the Tate as “decoration for the new refreshment room”, including the image of a black child chained to a horse and cart as it moves at speed. The debate raises the question – does the ongoing presence of artworks like this in public spaces serve to confront or maintain historic racist views?

    In some instances, the racist attitudes behind such paintings have been explicitly expressed by artists or painting owners, making them well-documented. Take, for example, John Trumbull (1715–1787), a painter who had several enslaved people living in his household. Another example is Gilbert Winter Moss (1828–1899), a banker who owned Richard Ansdell’s painting The Hunted Slaves (1861). According to the UCL Legacies of Slavery database, Moss’s family was deeply involved in the slave trade. In other cases, things aren’t so clear-cut.

    But even if not explicitly expressed, racist attitudes may have been implicitly held, to an extent that they were able to influence the creative process. Implicitly held racial attitudes are mental associations that, when triggered by race, can guide people’s judgment and actions. As a researcher in psychology, I wanted to explore if implicitly held racial attitudes affect the viewing of paintings when the images themselves make no suggestion of racial inequality.

    Alongside my colleagues, I have explored this question in a series of recent studies of portraits of black and white people. In one study, we used gaze-mapping technology to measure the eye movements made by visitors to the Walker Art Gallery in Liverpool.

    The measurement of when and where our eyes move, and how long they focus on specific objects, provides a time-sensitive index on what is important to viewers. We measured the eye movements of the visitors to the gallery who agreed to take part in our study as they looked at a set of five portraits of black sitters (including Two Jamaican Girls by Augustus John, 1937) and five portraits of white sitters (including Interior at Paddington by Lucian Freud, 1951).

    Their task was to say how much pleasure they experienced when looking at each painting. We also assessed the visitors to the gallery on their implicit racial attitudes and actual contact with different racial communities.

    Our results

    Our study showed that visitors to the gallery who reported little contact with black people and who held negative implicit racial attitudes reported experiencing little pleasure when viewing paintings showing black sitters.

    Perhaps more surprisingly, though they reported little pleasure, these visitors focused their attention more on the faces of the black sitters than others did. The results suggest that little contact with black people, combined with holding negative implicit racial attitudes, can be associated with an undue focus on black faces when viewing these paintings.

    We believe our findings suggest that negative implicit racial attitudes have not only influenced the historic content and composition of some paintings, but continue to exert an influence on the viewing of paintings in the present day. Moreover, the influence of negative implicit racial attitudes on the viewing of paintings exerts its effect even when the images themselves are quite neutral.

    Whether or not racist paintings are removed from public spaces, our results show that implicit racial attitudes will, for some viewers, continue to exert an influence on their perception of paintings representing black people and culture.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Tobiasz Trawinski does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Historic racism still negatively affects the way paintings of black people are perceived – as our study shows – https://theconversation.com/historic-racism-still-negatively-affects-the-way-paintings-of-black-people-are-perceived-as-our-study-shows-227007

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: OpenAI’s Strawberry program is reportedly capable of reasoning. It might be able to deceive humans

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Shweta Singh, Assistant Professor, Information Systems and Management, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

    OpenAI, the company that made ChatGPT, has launched a new artificial intelligence (AI) system called Strawberry. It is designed not just to provide quick responses to questions, like ChatGPT, but to think or “reason”.

    This raises several major concerns. If Strawberry really is capable of some form of reasoning, could this AI system cheat and deceive humans?

    OpenAI can program the AI in ways that mitigate its ability to manipulate humans. But the company’s own evaluations rate it as a “medium risk” for its ability to assist experts in the “operational planning of reproducing a known biological threat” – in other words, a biological weapon. It was also rated as a medium risk for its ability to persuade humans to change their thinking.

    It remains to be seen how such a system might be used by those with bad intentions, such as con artists or hackers. Nevertheless, OpenAI’s evaluation states that medium-risk systems can be released for wider use – a position I believe is misguided.

    Strawberry is not one AI “model”, or program, but several – known collectively as o1. These models are intended to answer complex questions and solve intricate maths problems. They are also capable of writing computer code – to help you make your own website or app, for example.

    An apparent ability to reason might come as a surprise to some, since this is generally considered a precursor to judgment and decision making – something that has often seemed a distant goal for AI. So, on the surface at least, it would seem to move artificial intelligence a step closer to human-like intelligence.

    When things look too good to be true, there’s often a catch. Well, this set of new AI models is designed to maximise their goals. What does this mean in practice? To achieve its desired objective, the path or the strategy chosen by AI may not always necessarily be fair, or align with human values.

    True intentions

    For example, if you were to play chess against Strawberry, in theory, could its reasoning allow it to hack the scoring system rather than figure out the best strategies for winning the game?

    The AI might also be able to lie to humans about its true intentions and capabilities, which would pose a serious safety concern if it were to be deployed widely. For example, if the AI knew it was infected with malware, could it “choose” to conceal this fact in the knowledge that a human operator might opt to disable the whole system if they knew?

    Strawberry goes a step beyond the capabilities of AI chatbots.
    Robert Way / Shutterstock

    These would be classic examples of unethical AI behaviour, where cheating or deceiving is acceptable if it leads to a desired goal. It would also be quicker for the AI, as it wouldn’t have to waste any time figuring out the next best move. It may not necessarily be morally correct, however.

    This leads to a rather interesting yet worrying discussion. What level of reasoning is Strawberry capable of and what could its unintended consequences be? A powerful AI system that’s capable of cheating humans could pose serious ethical, legal and financial risks to us.

    Such risks become grave in critical situations, such as designing weapons of mass destruction. OpenAI rates its own Strawberry models as “medium risk” for their potential to assist scientists in developing chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear weapons.

    OpenAI says: “Our evaluations found that o1-preview and o1-mini can help experts with the operational planning of reproducing a known biological threat.” But it goes on to say that experts already have significant expertise in these areas, so the risk would be limited in practice. It adds: “The models do not enable non-experts to create biological threats, because creating such a threat requires hands-on laboratory skills that the models cannot replace.”

    Powers of persuasion

    OpenAI’s evaluation of Strawberry also investigated the risk that it could persuade humans to change their beliefs. The new o1 models were found to be more persuasive and more manipulative than ChatGPT.

    OpenAI also tested a mitigation system that was able to reduce the manipulative capabilities of the AI system. Overall, Strawberry was labelled a medium risk for “persuasion” in Open AI’s tests.

    Strawberry was rated low risk for its ability to operate autonomously and on cybersecurity.

    Open AI’s policy states that “medium risk” models can be released for wide use. In my view, this underestimates the threat. The deployment of such models could be catastrophic, especially if bad actors manipulate the technology for their own pursuits.

    This calls for strong checks and balances that will only be possible through AI regulation and legal frameworks, such as penalising incorrect risk assessments and the misuse of AI.

    The UK government stressed the need for “safety, security and robustness” in their 2023 AI white paper, but that’s not nearly enough. There is an urgent need to prioritise human safety and devise rigid scrutiny protocols for AI models such as Strawberry.

    Shweta Singh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. OpenAI’s Strawberry program is reportedly capable of reasoning. It might be able to deceive humans – https://theconversation.com/openais-strawberry-program-is-reportedly-capable-of-reasoning-it-might-be-able-to-deceive-humans-239748

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Did COVID come from an animal market? Here’s what the new evidence really tells us

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Woolhouse, Professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, The University of Edinburgh

    The argument about the origins of COVID has always been heated, and nowadays it feels more like a brawl than a scientific debate.

    Some say that ground zero for the pandemic was a live animal market in Wuhan, China. Others argue that SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID) leaked from a nearby laboratory that was studying similar viruses. Both are plausible scenarios.

    Proponents of the market hypothesis have been aggressively vocal in recent weeks. In August, an anonymous editorial in a leading medical journal talked about the “hubris needed to underpin alternative hypotheses” and “fanciful ideas … more in keeping with popular movies”.

    A commentary in another journal lamented that scientists were being harassed for rejecting the lab leak hypothesis. With breathtaking hypocrisy, the same commentary then attacked a junior researcher who favours that hypothesis, dismissing her work as “conjecture, correlation and anecdote”.

    We can at least agree that the virus was present in the Wuhan market. Samples collected from market stalls and drains in early January 2020 contain SARS-CoV-2 genetic material. A recent analysis of this material, published in the journal Cell, claimed to show that the common ancestor of the viruses at the market was the common ancestor of the whole pandemic.

    That sounds compelling, until you realise that all of these samples were collected weeks after the pandemic began and none came from a live animal. Unaccountably, no samples were collected before the market was closed and the animals destroyed. Primarily for this reason, most commentators – including me – consider these latest results suggestive but not definitive.

    The lack of samples from animals is a problem. No one believes that this virus originated in Wuhan. The natural reservoirs of SARS-like coronaviruses are horseshoe bats, and no infected colonies have been found within 1,500km of the city.

    So it must have been brought into the market from somewhere. Yet no SARS-CoV-2 has been found along the supply chains for the animals sold there.

    Could a person rather than an animal have brought SARS-CoV-2 into the market in late 2019? That’s entirely possible. Many of the viruses near the base of the SARS-CoV-2 ancestral tree came from people with no links to the market. Several, including a cluster from Guangdong Province, were not even from Wuhan.

    Despite the many uncertainties and unanswered questions, it would be much easier to accept the market hypothesis if the pandemic had begun in one of the hundreds (or possibly thousands – no one seems to know for sure) of other Chinese cities that had similar markets in 2020.

    After all, the 2002 outbreak of the original SARS coronavirus (a very close relative of SARS-CoV-2) began in a market selling civet cats and other animals in, as it happens, Guangdong.

    Yet the epicentre of the COVID pandemic was less than 20 kilometres from China’s pre-eminent coronavirus research lab, the Wuhan Institute of Virology. That is an extraordinary coincidence, and you’d need compelling evidence that the market was the source (or that the lab wasn’t) to dismiss it. The evidence we have simply isn’t that strong.

    That said, there is no evidence – at least, not that the Chinese authorities have shared – that SARS-CoV-2 was present in the Wuhan Institute of Virology, though some closely related viruses were. I cannot know if it was or wasn’t, but it didn’t have to be.

    Scientists from the institute went on coronavirus-hunting expeditions to places such as Guangdong. Scientists from the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention – just a five-minute walk from the market – were making their own expeditions, too. There’s an obvious and plausible alternative route to the first human case.

    Dismissed as a conspiracy theory

    Yet as far back as March 2020, on a bare minimum of evidence, the idea that a lab was involved in any way was already being dismissed as a conspiracy theory.

    Two years ago, one of the most strident proponents of the market hypothesis claimed that his latest research “lays to rest the idea that the virus escaped from a laboratory”. An author of the new analysis in Cell says alternative explanations are “fanciful” and “absurd”.

    Who is all this bombast supposed to win over? Not scientists who can read the research papers, take note of the caveats and make their own judgments. Not politicians who have taken an ideological stance on the issue, particularly in the US. And not the intelligence agencies who many believe are our best hope for getting at the truth.

    I have studied the origins of human viruses for 25 years but, having examined the evidence, I still don’t know how the COVID pandemic began. I do know that the question is important and that debating it should be encouraged, not stifled.

    Mark Woolhouse receives funding from the European Union and the Wellcome Trust. He is a member of the Scottish Government’s Standing Committee on Pandemic Preparedness and has advised the Scottish and UK governments, and the WHO, on pandemic preparedness and response.

    – ref. Did COVID come from an animal market? Here’s what the new evidence really tells us – https://theconversation.com/did-covid-come-from-an-animal-market-heres-what-the-new-evidence-really-tells-us-239533

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why building new towns isn’t the answer to the UK’s housing crisis

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amrita Kulka, Assistant Professor, Political Economy and Public Economics, University of Warwick

    The UK is aiming to build 1.5 million homes over five years. Nick Beer/Shutterstock

    The UK’s new government is intent on building 1.5 million homes over the next five years. It’s all part of the plan to address the housing supply and affordability crisis.

    Many of these homes are to be built in the form of large communities or new towns of more than 10,000 housing units each. Some English new towns built after the second world war, such as Milton Keynes, Harlow and Basildon, have been successful economically. But the building of new towns has ground to a halt since the 1990s.

    The importance of large developments for housing supply in the UK has increased dramatically in the last 25 years. We have put together new evidence that reveals a significant shift in the source of housing supply. These days, an increasing share of new homes are coming from large developments.

    At the turn of the century, very large developments of at least 500 units made up only single digits of the total percentage of potential housing supply. Today, such developments represent 38% of permitted housing units. These very large projects only made up 0.2% of applications over the 25 years, but make up a disproportionately large chunk of new housing supply.

    This graphic shows the share of permitted new homes from 2000 to 2023 for applications of different development sizes across the UK.

    Proportion of new homes by development size

    Our research, undertaken with the support of our research assistant Alex Gallagher, explores the barriers that developments face in terms of paperwork and waiting time for a decision. We show that the amount of paperwork increases dramatically with the size of the project, going from one application for projects involving one unit, to more than eight applications for projects involving 500 or more units.

    The additional paperwork is generated by things like environmental surveys, infrastructure needs and public utilities.

    Northstowe in Cambridgeshire, which was planned to be the largest new town since Milton Keynes was built in the 1960s, also required funding for local infrastructure. Developers were obliged to contribute more than £120 million, most of which went to the construction of local schools. The development was left in limbo for around four years due to a delay to the expansion of the A14 trunk road, upon which the new town was entirely dependent. It is still not complete, with residents frustrated at the lack of infrastructure.

    In the case of Buckshaw Village, a new Lancashire development built on a former munitions factory, developers had to decontaminate the site. This required a £10.5 million contract to decontaminate more than 850 buildings.

    Of course many of these requirements are necessary, and beneficial for long-term planning. But it demonstrates that building a new town goes far beyond constructing houses.

    Decade-long delays

    In our research we also find that the time taken to reach a planning decision rises dramatically from projects involving one unit to projects involving two to nine units, and keeps rising for larger projects. The average time from the first application to the last decision is just over four years and four months for projects with more than 500 units. But even projects involving just one unit can expect to wait nearly a year.

    For bigger projects, waiting times for a decision are over 11 years in some cases (the most delayed 10%). One example is Ebbsfleet Valley – another newly planned town near London with large potential – which has seen only 4,000 of 43,000 planned homes built since planning began in 1996.

    The time taken for a planning decision plays a role in this delay. The borough councils resolved to grant outline planning permission (which lets a developer know if its plans are acceptable in principle) in 1998, two years after the application was submitted. But outline planning permission was not actually granted until November 2002. And then the need to supply more plans caused further delays, which meant building did not start until 2006 – 10 years after the original outline was filed.

    The long wait times for decisions, added to the fact that bigger developments must file additional applications, mean that housing supply from large projects is slow to be realised.

    These barriers have important implications for developers, which have to weigh the cost savings of large developments against the increased chance of obstacles that these larger developments are likely to throw up. So are new towns the most effective way to build a large amount of housing units in a short space of time?

    New towns are most comparable to the large-scale developments that represent an increasing share of residential units in the UK since the early 2000s.

    While these development schemes can deliver large amounts of housing alongside local infrastructure (at the developer’s expense rather than local government), they are unlikely to do so in the short term as they also face the toughest barriers under planning regulations.

    Therefore, so-called infill developments (that is, new buildings on unused or under-used land) as well as smaller and medium-sized developments, should not be neglected.

    Urban extensions and new neighbourhoods in the sites we’re already living in may provide ways to keep costs and uncertainties of new infrastructure to a minimum – even while planning larger developments or the new towns of the future.

    Amrita Kulka receives funding from Research England.

    Nikhil Datta receives funding from the British Academy, Leverhulme Trust, Economic and Social Research Council, and Research England.

    – ref. Why building new towns isn’t the answer to the UK’s housing crisis – https://theconversation.com/why-building-new-towns-isnt-the-answer-to-the-uks-housing-crisis-238635

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Climate change is easier to study when it’s presented as a game

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Ian Thacker, Assistant Professor of Educational Psychology, The University of Texas at San Antonio

    A playful approach can make the often complicated subject of climate change easier to understand. Victor Habbick Visions/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

    Climate change is among the more difficult but important topics to teach to young people. It involves complicated science and data, and it can be really depressing, given the bleak picture it paints of Earth’s future.

    So how do educators get students more engaged in lessons about climate change? One way that works is to make the lessons into a game.

    As a professor of educational psychology, I conducted an experiment that found that high schoolers are more interested and absorb more information about climate change when it’s presented as a game.

    In the study, 248 high school students throughout the U.S. were randomly assigned to either read a text about climate science or to play a number estimation game – that is, a game in which they guessed 12 numerical facts about climate change. I found that the number estimation game improved high schoolers’ climate change understanding, interest in science and willingness to take actions to help solve climate change.

    For instance, one question asked: “What is the change in percentage of the world’s ocean ice cover since the 1960s?”

    After students submit an estimate, a window pops up showing the true value – a “40% decrease” in the ice cover question. Gold stars appear to indicate their accuracy, as does a short explanation of the true value. The answers also list actions that people can take to address the issue and links to the sources of the information.

    I found that students who played the game had a better understanding than those who did not that there is a scientific consensus around human-caused climate change. Students who played the game also thought the activity was more interesting and reported less boredom. These boosts in positive emotions and motivation were linked to reduced sense of hopelessness about climate change and improved willingness to act on climate change.

    Why it matters

    Climate change is a tricky topic for secondary students to learn. Not only is the science conceptually difficult to comprehend, but it can be psychologically difficult for them to accept and address the looming threat of climate change.

    Compounding this problem, a 2020 report suggests that 20 U.S. states do not address these challenges in their state science standards, as they were found to insufficiently address the scientific climate consensus: that climate change is real, severe, caused by humans, but that there is hope for change. Findings from my study provide some principles for addressing this curricular gap.

    What other research is being done?

    Researchers are actively trying to find approaches that promote accurate climate change education that helps students understand the causes and explores solutions for the challenges ahead.

    One promising approach emphasized in this study, in my prior research and by other researchers, is to present a handful of surprising climate change numbers to students after they estimate them. However, there are several alternative approaches that are also effective. For example, some research found success by breaking down complicated ways to evaluate evidence, while other research engaged students taking photographs of their local environment to depict climate science and reflect on possible solutions.

    What still isn’t known

    One big remaining question is how to encourage teachers to implement effective climate change education in their classrooms. Evidence suggests that teachers sometimes feel pressured to teach to “both sides” of the continuum of climate change perspectives, despite one side having more supporting evidence. Such inconsistent messages can diminish needed urgency and confuse students in the process. I think it’s worthwhile to investigate the specific challenges and rewards that teachers encounter when implementing clear and consistent climate curriculum in their classrooms.

    The Research Brief is a short take on interesting academic work.

    Ian Thacker received funding to support this research from the American Psychological Association Division 15 Early Career Research Grant Award.

    – ref. Climate change is easier to study when it’s presented as a game – https://theconversation.com/climate-change-is-easier-to-study-when-its-presented-as-a-game-236544

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Continuing crackdown on churches and NGOs moves Nicaragua further from democracy to authoritarianism

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Richard Wood, President of the Institute for Advanced Catholic Studies, USC Dornsife College of Letters, Arts and Sciences

    A man prays at the Metropolitan Cathedral in Managua, the capital of Nicaragua, in August 2022. Oswaldo Rivas/AFP via Getty Images

    The Nicaraguan government recently shut down more than 1,500 nonprofits – many of them civic and religious groups doing humanitarian work in a country long mired in political violence, economic upheaval and social strife.

    The August 2024 closures were the latest in a long-running crackdown on civil society, including religious groups – some of the last influential, independent organizations in the country. That same month, the government revoked churches’ tax-exempt status. Over the past few years, many houses of worship have been closed or had their bank accounts frozen.

    As a sociologist, I have worked with Central American scholars to research the role of religion in public life in Central America, including Nicaragua. Several hundred Catholic figures have been detained in an ongoing crackdown under President Daniel Ortega, now 78, who leads the Sandinista National Liberation Front.

    Sweeping suppression

    Ortega’s FSLN party, as it is known in Spanish, is the authoritarian remnant of the group that led a broad national movement against Anastasio Somoza Debayle’s dictatorship in the 1970s. After overthrowing Somoza in 1979, Ortega and the Sandinistas governed until losing the 1990 election.

    Since Ortega returned to power in the 2006 elections, moderates have fled the FSLN, which since then has used oppression and violence for political and social control. In 2013, the National Assembly removed presidential term limits set by the Nicaraguan constitution.

    In April 2018, Ortega’s regime began targeting student protesters. Since then, hundreds of citizens — religious leaders, university students, academics, journalists and doctors — have been killed or arrested, gone into hiding or been forced to flee the country.

    Ortega’s crackdown has been broad. Universities had their assets confiscated and funding cut, and some have been shut down as the government took control of higher education. Media outlets have been shuttered, and international aid organizations have been expelled.

    Paramilitary police officers and prison guards have been accused of engaging in arbitrary killings and torture. Meanwhile, a record number of refugees are fleeing the country.

    Parishioners attend Mass at St. Agatha Catholic Church in Miami, which has become the spiritual home of the growing Nicaraguan diaspora.
    AP Photo/Rebecca Blackwell

    Silencing churches

    Among the nearly 5,500 nonprofits that closed in Nicaragua between 2018 and 2024 are Catholic, evangelical Christian and historical Protestant organizations, as well as secular humanitarian ones. Of those, 1,650 organizations and churches were shuttered in August 2024, with government officials claiming their closure was due to ties to private enterprises or a lack of financial records.

    Catholic media and radio stations, missionary orders and humanitarian groups have been shuttered, too, as Ortega and the vice president – his wife, Rosario Murillo – have sought to eliminate settings where ideas and information freely flow, and people act independently of the government.

    The highest-profile religious leader caught up in the clampdown is Rolando Álvarez, a popular bishop, critic of Ortega, and a prominent Catholic voice of protest. Álvarez was detained in August 2022, accused of “conspiracy and spreading false news,” stripped of his citizenship and sentenced to 26 years in prison.

    Police officers and riot police block the main entrance of a church building in Matagalpa, Nicaragua, in August 2022 to prevent Bishop Rolando Álvarez from leaving.
    STR/AFP via Getty Images

    With international pressure mounting, Alvarez and a group of fellow detained Catholic clergy were released in January 2024 and exiled to the Vatican – where the regime had previously expelled the apostolic nuncio, the pope’s top diplomat in Nicaragua. They are among 245 Catholic figures the country has expelled in recent years. An additional 135 people, including Catholics and evangelicals, were expelled and stripped of their citizenship in September 2024.

    Today, 43% of Nicaraguan citizens identity as Catholics. But that percentage used to be much higher, and the country has deep cultural roots in Catholicism.

    In Nicaragua, as in much of Latin America, the Catholic Church is the most powerful source of social authority and the largest independent institution for public debate. It represents a key channel through which democratic values may take root, grow and thrive – an obstacle, in the regime’s eyes.

    For many years, the church was the only organization to escape Ortega’s grip – but no longer.

    Dangerous path

    I have witnessed firsthand Nicaragua’s shift from a country with promising seeds of democracy to violent autocracy. As civil war raged between the original Sandinista regime and U.S.-backed Contras in the 1980s, I led travel seminars to Nicaragua for faith groups, journalists, congressional aides and university students. I once personally encountered Ortega, serving as translator during a meeting with American journalists when his official translator failed to show up.

    Today, as Ortega continues to consolidate power by crushing opposition, Nicaragua has deteriorated into an oppressive state ruled with an iron fist. This reality reflects broader dynamics globally, from autocratic movements in the U.S. and Western Europe to current regimes in Russia, India, Turkey, Hungary and China.

    Nicaraguan citizens wave from a bus after being released from a Nicaraguan jail and landing in Guatemala City on Sept. 5, 2024.
    AP Photo/Moises Castillo

    Closer to home, Ortega poses a regional threat as a model for other potential autocrats. This is especially the case for neighbors like El Salvador, where President Nayib Bukele – the popular, self-described “coolest dictator” – is going down a similar path of turning the nation into an authoritarian state.

    I have seen Nicaraguans’ generosity and courage in the long fight for liberty and justice. The closure of democratic spaces, civic institutions and humanitarian organizations, along with the suppression of religious freedom, is a glaring sign that the country is being marched toward more oppression and violence – and, as history shows, risks becoming ripe for revolution.

    Only a gradual rebuilding of civil society, I believe, may save Nicaragua from that fate. The tragedy is what Nicaragua could have been: a thriving democratic society, with a commitment to empowering the poor.

    From 1983-1987 and part-time from 1987-1992, Richard Wood worked running travel seminars in Mexico and Central America. From 2010-2012, he received funding from the Center on Religion and Civic Culture at the University of Southern California and The John Templeton Foundation for research collaboration with Central American researchers.

    – ref. Continuing crackdown on churches and NGOs moves Nicaragua further from democracy to authoritarianism – https://theconversation.com/continuing-crackdown-on-churches-and-ngos-moves-nicaragua-further-from-democracy-to-authoritarianism-238178

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What America’s history can teach us about debates on religious freedom and its importance for democracy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Corey D. B. Walker, Dean and Wake Forest Professor of the Humanities, Wake Forest University

    The decline in church attendance has not resulted in a diminished Christian presence in American public life. selimaksan/E+ via Getty images.

    Supporters of both major U.S. political parties tend to claim their presidential candidate is the “real” Christian or the “better” Christian or just the “true” Christian.

    For a majority of white evangelical protestants, Trump is the good Christian. Christians for Kamala, a newly created group of self-identified Christians who support the Democratic nominee, say that her campaign embodies the “compassionate heart of Jesus and his teachings.”

    Yet, most American adults agree that religion should be separate from government. This widely shared belief is a cornerstone of religious freedom. As a scholar of religious freedom, I have studied the complex and ever-evolving role of religion in American politics. I argue that this election year, while the Christian character of each candidate is discussed everywhere, religious freedom, one of the core freedoms of American democracy, is not.

    The case of Ezra Stiles Ely

    America’s history of religious freedom is filled with stories that are instructive for our current moment. One such instructive lesson comes from the early 19th century.

    The Second Great Awakening was an intense period of religious revival. Evangelical Christians sought to reform American law and politics to reflect what they considered to be true Christianity. According to legal scholar Geoffrey R. Stone, it was at this time the claim that the “United States is a ‘Christian nation’ first seriously took root.”

    Ezra Stiles Ely.
    The New York Public Library digital collections

    A striking figure from the period is the Philadelphia Presbyterian minister Ezra Stiles Ely. On July 4, 1827, the Yale-educated minister delivered his infamous call for “a Christian political party” in the run-up to the 1828 presidential election.

    Ely’s oration, The Duty of Christian Freemen to Elect Christian Rulers, is a 19th-century version of what is today called “Christian nationalism.” In it, Ely lays out his view of a distinctly Christian vision of who should serve as political leaders and how they should govern.

    Before an Independence Day audience in Philadelphia’s Seventh Presbyterian Church, Ely declared, “Every ruler should be an avowed and sincere friend of Christianity. He should know and believe the doctrines of our holy religion, and act in conformity to its precepts.” Ely also advocated for “a new sort of union, or, if you will, a Christian party in politics.”

    Ely closed his sermon by exhorting Christians to “awake … to our sacred duty to our Divine Master; and let us have no rulers, without our consent and cooperation, who are not known to be avowedly Christians.”

    Critiques in defense of religious freedom

    While Ely sought to wed Christianity and American politics, others voices responded against this move. Religious freedom was new for the young nation. Yet, its supporters recognized its importance for American democracy.

    On Feb. 7, 1828, a pamphlet titled Sunday School Union, or Union of Church and State was placed on the desk of each member of the Pennsylvania Senate. The pamphlet contained excerpts of Ely’s speech that advocated the union of Christianity and politics. Ely’s speech was also the subject of debate in several 19th-century newspapers, including the Harrisburg Chronicle and The Pennsylvania Reporter.

    Notable among these voices was Massachusetts-born and Harvard-educated Supreme Court Justice Joseph Story.

    In an 1828 speech delivered in Salem, Massachusetts, Story boldly declared his support for religious freedom. He stated: “Religious freedom is the birthright of man; that governments have no authority to inflict punishment for conscientious differences of opinion; and that to worship God according to our own belief is not only our privilege, but is our duty, our absolute duty, from which no human tribunal can absolve us.”

    “Wherever religious liberty exist,” he argued, “it will, first or last, bring in, and establish political liberty.”

    Politics and American democracy

    America is not the same as at the time of the Second Great Awakening. Yet, the role of Christianity in political life is seemingly as alive as ever.

    The steady decline in church attendance has not resulted in a diminished Christian presence in American public life. The public square still contains powerful appeals to Christianity rather than a shared democratic heritage.

    Former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump recently stated, “We have to bring back our religion. We have to bring back Christianity in this country.”

    Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito has commended the religious convictions of citizens, stating, “People with deep religious convictions may be less likely to succumb to dominating ideologies or trends, and more likely to act in accordance with what they see as true and right. Civil society can count on them as engines of reform.”

    A 2023 survey, in which the nonprofit, nonpartisan research and education organization PRRI interviewed more than 22,000 adults, found that approximately 3 in 10 Americans either supported or held Christian nationalist views. Christian nationalists tend “to see political struggles through the apocalyptic lens of revolution and to support political violence.”

    In my opinion, the linkage of Christianity and politics in the United States undermines American democracy. Amanda Tyler, executive director of the Baptist Joint Committee for Religious Liberty, a prominent public voice, explains how Christian nationalism undermines both Christianity and American democracy. In her 2024 book “How to End Christian Nationalism,” Tyler writes, “Christian nationalism is the greatest threat to religious liberty in the U.S. today, as well as a clear and present danger to our constitutional republic.”

    While debates over the Christian virtues of the candidates may be important for Christian communities, religious freedom is important for American democracy. The response to Christianity and politics is not more Christianity but more democracy. And religious freedom is key.

    Corey D. B. Walker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What America’s history can teach us about debates on religious freedom and its importance for democracy – https://theconversation.com/what-americas-history-can-teach-us-about-debates-on-religious-freedom-and-its-importance-for-democracy-238174

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –