NewzIntel.com

Category: Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: The final cut: crank paper on NZ temperature record gets its rebuttal – warming continues unabated

    MIL OSI – Source: Hot Topic – By Gareth Renowden – Analysis published with permission of Hot-Topic.co.nz

    Headline: The final cut: crank paper on NZ temperature record gets its rebuttal – warming continues unabated

    Way back in the spring of 2014, NZ’s little band of climate cranks somehow managed to get a paper published based on their recalculation of New Zealand’s long term temperature record1. The effort – based on calculations done to support their infamous court case against the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), which they emphatically lost – purported to show that New Zealand’s long term warming rate was only a third of the amount previously calculated. As I pointed out at the time, it was riddled with errors and bad scholarship, but it appeared in the peer-reviewed literature2, and so required a peer-reviewed rebuttal.

    —

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: The Ben Bohane photo that Facebook censored on an article about Indonesia

    Source: Dr David Robie – Café Pacific – Analysis-Reportage:

    Headline: The Ben Bohane photo that Facebook censored on an article about Indonesia

    The original version of this photo, of West Papuan nambas (traditional penis gourds), which was published
    in the weekend edition of the family newspaper Vanuatu Daily Post and then by Asia Pacific Report,
    was deemed to have breached Facebook’s “community standards”. The photo was by award-winning
    photojournalist Ben Bohane, who lives in Vanuatu.

    BEN BOHANE: CHINA? NO, LET’S FACE THE

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: Chinese ‘baseless rumour’, Nauru ‘justice’ for refugees and Fiji diabetes

    Source: Dr David Robie – Café Pacific – Analysis-Reportage:

    Headline: Chinese ‘baseless rumour’, Nauru ‘justice’ for refugees and Fiji diabetes

    David Robie talks on 95bFM about current Pacific issues

    Reuben McLaren of 95bFM talks to Professor David Robie, director of the Pacific
    Media Centre at Auckland University of Technology, on the centre’s Southern Cross radio programme.

    David speaks about various upheavals around the Pacific, including the alleged Chinese military “base plans” for Vanuatu,
    Nauru abolishing its Appeal Court

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: ‘Free media’ week killings – but don’t forget crimes against Papuans

    Source: Dr David Robie – Café Pacific – Analysis-Reportage:

    Headline: ‘Free media’ week killings – but don’t forget crimes against Papuans

    “Save Papuan Journalists” – a theme poster from last year’s May 3 World Press Freedom Day event in Jakarta, Indonesia.
    West Papuan media freedom issues tend to be “lost” in the standard press freedom reports on Indonesia.
    Image: David Robie/Pacific Media Centre

    By David Robie

    MONDAY – just three days before today’s World Press Freedom Day – was the deadliest day for news media in

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: Free media week killings underscore crimes of impunity against journalists

    Source: Dr David Robie – Café Pacific – Analysis-Reportage:

    Headline: Free media week killings underscore crimes of impunity against journalists

    A press freedom protest in the Philippines capital of Manila over the latest killing of a radio
    journalist this week. Image: RSF

     By David Robie
    MONDAY – just three days before today’s World Press Freedom Day – was the deadliest day for news media in Afghanistan
    in 17 years. The killing of nine journalists and media workers among 26
    people who died in dual suicide bomb attacks in Kabul was

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: Nine out of ten targeted by scams, but New Zealanders getting more scam savvy

    Source: BNZ statements

    New research from Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) shows a significant jump in scam activity over the past 12 months, with nine out of ten New Zealanders targeted by a scam, up 13 percent on the same time last year.

    But while the volume of scams has surged, New Zealanders are getting more scam savvy, with only one in ten falling victim.

    The research comes as BNZ launches its annual Scam Savvy Week to raise awareness, help people know how to identify scams, and be safer online.

    BNZ’s Head of Financial Crime, Ashley Kai Fong, says, “While it’s fantastic that New Zealanders are learning to spot the red flags, the sheer volume of scams is a stark reminder for all of us to remain vigilant.

    “All scams require people to do something – whether that’s clicking on a link, engaging in a conversation, or sending money. Ultimately the best defence against scams is you. If you can recognise the signs of a scam, you’re less likely to fall victim. That’s why BNZ has developed tools and resources to help New Zealanders get scam savvy at www.getscamsavvy.co.nz.”

    Businesses getting “con-conscious”  

    Businesses have also improved their ability to identify and avoid scams, with the number of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) falling victim to scams dropping from 47 percent in 2022 to 34 percent in 2023.

    “Scams are a significant threat to our business community, but these figures show that SMEs are taking the right steps to protect themselves,” says Kai Fong.

    Despite the reduction, businesses are not being complacent. Reporting of scams to banks has seen a marked increase, with 60 percent of businesses scammed in 2023 reporting the incident, compared to 39 percent in the previous year.

    “This underscores the growing awareness among businesses of the importance of swift reporting and robust prevention measures. It’s a clear indication that the business community is recognising the threat posed by scammers,” says Kai Fong.

    More people reporting scams, but further progress needed

    Reporting by individuals also increased with 64 percent of individuals impacted by a scam reporting it, up from 46 percent last year.

    “Reporting scams is a crucial step in fighting fraud,” says Kai Fong. “It provides valuable data to help us understand and combat these threats more effectively, making it harder for scammers to operate.

    “It’s great that Kiwis are increasingly reporting scams, but there is still a lot of room for improvement. Too many of us don’t report scams, or even tell loved ones, due to embarrassment or shame, but we need to remember that this is a scammer’s fulltime job.

    “Every minute of every day, they are out there thinking of new ways to take people’s hard-earned money. There is nothing to be embarrassed about if you do experience a scam, and by reporting it, you could be helping someone avoid being scammed in the future.”

    Top three scams 

    Government impersonation scams were the most prevalent over the last 12 months (45%), followed by bank impersonation scams (31%), and fake lottery, prize or grant scams (24%).

    Email was found to be the most common channel for scams (40%), followed by text (34%), and social media (28%).

    “Scammers are becoming increasingly sophisticated, impersonating trusted brands and institutions and exploiting a range of channels to deceive New Zealanders,” says Kai Fong.

    Despite the rise in scams, the research shows that educating New Zealanders to spot and avoid scams is helping to keep them safe.

    “Around two-thirds of those surveyed reported having seen educational material about scam prevention,” he says. “Knowledge is power. We want as many people as possible to get Scam Savvy as the more we know about scams, the better equipped we are to spot and avoid them.”

    Our Scam Savvy tools are available online at www.getscamsavvy.co.nz.

    Top tips to get Scam Savvy

    • Don’t click on links or open attachments sent by someone you don’t know or seem out of character for someone you do know. Hover over links to reveal the actual site.
    • If it doesn’t seem right, call the sender using contact details you already have or that are available on their public website.
    • Urgency is a red flag – scammers will try to rush you.
    • Banks will never ask for your bank account details, password or pin number, nor will they send you an email or text message with a link asking you to log in.
    • Keep your computer and phone security software up to date.
    • If you think you’ve been scammed, contact your bank as soon as possible.
    • Trust your gut – if it feels wrong, it probably is.

    Scam Savvy Research

    Other key findings from BNZ’s research:

    • One in ten New Zealanders have fallen victim to a scam in the last 12 months, losing money, personal information, bank or card details, or device access
    • Of those that lost money, two thirds (69%) lost under $500, 26 percent between $500 and $5,000, and five percent over $5,000
    • Email is the most common way to have fallen victim to a scam (40%), followed by text (34%), social media (28%), phone calls (18%), online websites (9%) or by someone you know (3%)
      • Those aged 15 – 34 years are more likely to have been targeted via social media (44%)
      • Social media and online website scams are harder for victims to recover stolen money, with 56 percent of victims who were targted via social media and 22 percent of victims targeted via an online website saying they couldn’t recover their money
    • Those over the age of 50 are more likely to be targeted by tech scam calls
    • One in ten males has responded to a dating or romance scam in the last 12 months, significantly higher than females
    • Females are more likely to be more concerned about their personal data online

    Business stats

    • 45 percent of SMEs reported being the target of scam attempts in the last year
    • Of those targeted, one third have responded to a scam attempt, by clicking on a link (15%), or replying to the scam via email, text, or phone call (14%)
    • Almost half (47%) of scam attempts are by email, with another 38% by text message. One third (33%) are by phone calling, with websites (19%) and social media (18%) rounding out the top 5
    • One in five (22%) of SMEs reported falling victim to a scam in the last 12 months
    • 43 percent of businesses that fell for a scam reported a financial loss. Of those, more than half lost less than $500, 38 percent between $501 and $5,000, and 11 percent lost more than $5,000. It is important to note that losses to scams are not just financial, and can include data loss, operational impacts, technical damage and/or reputational damage

    The post Nine out of ten targeted by scams, but New Zealanders getting more scam savvy appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ scores naming rights partnership with the NZ Breakers; teams up with Kiwi Hoops to grow grassroots basketball

    Source: BNZ statements

    The New Zealand Breakers, the country’s top professional basketball team, are set to embark on a new chapter as the BNZ Breakers, thanks to a new naming rights partnership with the Bank of New Zealand (BNZ). The naming rights partnership was announced in Auckland this morning.

    In addition, BNZ is joining forces with Kiwi Hoops, Basketball New Zealand’s junior basketball programme, to help grow the sport at the grass roots level and foster the next generation of talent. These partnerships come hot on the heels of the bank’s naming rights sponsorship of the BNZ Northern Kāhu women’s basketball team, confirmed last month.

    BNZ CEO Dan Huggins says the bank is thrilled to back the Breakers and further cement its support for the sport. “From nurturing young talent in Kiwi Hoops, to bolstering women’s basketball with the Northern Kāhu, and now backing the premier professional team, the BNZ Breakers, our support is generational.”

    “Through these partnerships, we want to inspire the next generation and provide resources and opportunities that will help grow the sport, promote physical health, and foster a sense of community. We’re looking forward to seeing the positive ripple effects of these partnerships, from the school playground to the professional court.”

    Matt Walsh, majority owner of the Breakers, welcomed the new partnership. “We’re delighted to partner with BNZ, an organisation that shares our passion and commitment to basketball and the positive role it plays in schools and communities across Aotearoa. This partnership will provide us with the support to continue our success on the court and expand our programmes in the community.”

    “Our captain Tom Abercrombie is a shining example of how the Breakers is a pathway for local players to create a career out of basketball.  Tom went to school less than four kilometres from our club headquarters on Auckland’s North Shore and has travelled the world playing across the globe.

    “Next month he will play his record 400th game for the Breakers in our opening game of the season against the Cairns Taipans at Spark Arena.”

    The BNZ Breakers are actively involved in a range of community outreach initiatives, including their Champions Programme, teaching children aged 5-12 years about goal setting, nutrition, active lifestyles, and basketball fundamentals.

    Kiwi Hoops

    Kiwi Hoops is the Basketball New Zealand junior basketball programme. It aims to introduce the sport to young people, foster a love for the game, and develop skills. The partnership with BNZ will support the expansion of the programme, which already reaches 26,000 kids per year, to engage even more young people across New Zealand.

    Dillon Boucher, CEO of Basketball New Zealand, says, “By partnering with BNZ, we can expand our reach and impact, providing more opportunities for young Kiwis to engage with basketball. This partnership will not only help us grow the sport at the grassroots level, but also build a strong foundation for the future of basketball in New Zealand by developing the next generation of players.”

    Huggins concludes, “At BNZ, we’re committed to growing the social, cultural and financial wellbeing of New Zealanders, and believe in the power of sport to bring people together and inspire positive change. We’re proud to be part of the journey of basketball in New Zealand, and we can’t wait to see where these partnerships take us.”

    The post BNZ scores naming rights partnership with the NZ Breakers; teams up with Kiwi Hoops to grow grassroots basketball appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ warns of increased tax scams as tax time approaches

    Source: BNZ statements

    As tax time approaches, Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) is urging New Zealanders to be alert to the heightened risk of tax-related scams.

    “The end of the financial year is a prime opportunity for scammers, who take advantage of tax time to trick and defraud New Zealanders out of their money,” says Ashley Kai Fong, BNZ’s Head of Financial Crime.

    “Scammers exploit the urgency and importance of tax-related matters, creating fraudulent but realistic scenarios about tax debts or refunds that can seem both timely and credible,” he says.

    “Tax scams are particularly effective because people often have genuine interactions with the IRD during this time of year,” says Kai Fong. “Scammers exploit this familiarity to make their attempts more believable. It’s crucial to verify the authenticity of any unsolicited communication claiming to be from government agencies.

    “A recent example we’ve seen is of customers receiving an email claiming to be from the IRD. The email, which originates from an unofficial email address, contains a link that directs customers to a fraudulent IRD website, which then leads them to a fake bank login page.

    “Examples like this serve as a stark reminder of the importance of being vigilant and cautious when receiving unsolicited emails, even if they appear to be from trusted sources like the IRD or government agencies.”

    New Zealanders should always access their accounts through official websites, rather than clicking on a link which directs them to do so.

    “At this time of year, be particularly wary of emails or communications about tax refunds or debts. Verify the source thoroughly, and if in doubt, contact the IRD via the details on its official website. Remember, the IRD will never prompt you to log in to your online banking via their website or ask you to provide your banking login credentials.

    “The simplest yet most powerful defence you have is being aware. Trust your instincts and always take a sec to check before providing sensitive information.”

    In case of suspicious activity or suspected scams, BNZ encourages anyone who believes they may have been targeted by a scam to contact their bank immediately. For more information on protecting yourself from scams, visit www.getscamsavvy.co.nz.

    The post BNZ warns of increased tax scams as tax time approaches appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: HY24 Results: Resilient result in subdued economic environment

    Source: BNZ statements

    Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) today announced a statutory net profit of $762 million for the six months to 31 March 2024, a decrease of $43 million or 5.3% on the prior year.

    This reflects continued growth in BNZ’s lending and deposits, and an increase in operating expenses, up $64 million or 11.1%, as BNZ invested in its people and digital capability.

    BNZ CEO Dan Huggins says this is a resilient result in a subdued economic environment and the bank is in a strong position to continue supporting its customers.

    “High interest rates and cost of living pressures continue to impact business and household finances.

    “While easing inflation is encouraging, it is expected to remain outside of the Reserve Bank’s target band until the end of year. Economic conditions are likely to remain challenging until there is a material reduction in interest rates.

    “Supporting our customers through these challenging times remains our top priority.

    “Our teams continue to proactively contact customers who we have identified as potentially needing additional support. For customers feeling under pressure, our message is get in touch.”

    Revenue for the first six months was broadly flat at $1,770 million, while Net Interest Margin dropped by eight basis points on the prior year, reflecting strong competition across the banking sector and a change in deposit mix as customers shifted funds into term deposits to take advantage of higher interest rates.

    Mr Huggins says despite the challenging operating conditions, the bank has maintained momentum across the business.

    “Our team is focused on serving our customers brilliantly every day and supporting their ambitions, whether that’s investing in their business or buying their first, or next, home.”

    “This focus is paying off with more New Zealanders choosing to bank with BNZ.”

    BNZ’s total lending increased $2.4 billion or 2.4% in the first six months, with home lending up $1.1 billion or 1.9% and business lending up $1.3 billion or 3.0%. Total customer deposits increased by $1.5 billion or 1.9%.

    Innovating to make banking simpler and easier

    “We are always looking for new ways to integrate the latest technology into the way we work and how our customers’ bank to enhance their experience and make banking simpler and easier,” says Mr Huggins.

    “We continue to invest heavily in protection measures to help keep our customers safer online, while also delivering digital solutions designed to free up time in their busy lives.

    “Initiatives like our digital onboarding process which makes switching banks easier and faster for new customers by enabling them to open accounts digitally without having to go into a branch.

    “Similarly, Open Banking, which will allow customers to share their data safely with third parties and enable more personalised products and innovative services for customers.”

    BNZ has been leading the market in developing Open Banking APIs, with more than 250,000 BNZ customers already benefiting from secure budgeting and reconciliation tools and alternative payment options.

    “We’re committed to continuing to drive innovation across our business to provide more value to our customers,” says Mr Huggins.

    An unaudited summary of financial information for the six months ended 31 March 2024 follows:.
    .

    The post HY24 Results: Resilient result in subdued economic environment appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ brings back the branch experience

    Source: BNZ statements

    Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) today announced all of its branches across New Zealand will open at least five days a week by April 2025, in response to growing customer demand for more face-to-face interactions.

    Anna Flower, BNZ Executive Personal and Business Banking, says BNZ’s focus is on being available for our customers when they need us.

    “In recent years, we saw a massive shift in customer demand towards online and call centre services, which was accelerated hugely during the pandemic. We adapted quickly at that time by moving our bankers to where our customers needed us most, which saw us reduce the number of days many of our branches were open,” says Flower.

    “Post-Covid, customer preferences have continued to evolve, and in those moments that matter, such as starting a business, dealing with a bereavement, or buying a home, we’ve heard from our communities and our personal and business customers that they want more opportunities to talk to us face-to-face.

    “For those significant moments, we understand it’s the personal touch that counts. That’s why we’re bringing back 5 day a week opening to give customers access to our bankers’ expertise when and where they need us.

    “This means where there’s a BNZ branch near you, the doors will be open 9.30am until 4.00pm, a minimum of 5 days a week,” says Flower.

    The first BNZ branches to transition to opening five days a week are:

    • Feilding
    • Matamata
    • Oamaru
    • Te Awamutu
    • Thames
    • Te Puke
    • Wānaka

    The remaining branches will move to full week-day operating hours by April 2025.

    The post BNZ brings back the branch experience appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ’s new Māori Business Sentiment Survey reveals challenges and opportunities amid economic headwinds

    Source: BNZ statements

    Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) today released the findings of its inaugural Māori Business Sentiment Survey, aimed at providing insights into the current state and future prospects of Māori enterprises. The survey highlights the economic challenges being faced by Māori businesses, while also revealing their resilience and potential for growth.

    Whetu Rangi, BNZ’s Head of Māori Business, says the survey aims to address the lack of comprehensive data on the experiences and perspectives of Māori businesses.

    “The data gap around the sector has been a barrier to understanding and supporting the Māori economy. By launching this survey and committing to conducting it regularly, we are aiming to bridge this gap and foster ongoing collaboration and knowledge sharing. We believe that this survey will become a valuable tool to promote better understanding of the sector and help facilitate the flow of capital within the Māori economy.”

    The survey, which received 125 responses from those involved with Māori businesses, revealed that economic conditions pose the most significant challenge for Māori enterprises, with 71% of respondents selecting it as their top concern. The findings also showed that nearly half (46%) of the respondents observed deteriorating business conditions over the past 12 months, while only a small fraction (15%) witnessed improvements.

    Mike Jones, BNZ’s Chief Economist, says that the survey results broadly mirror weak business confidence across the economy.

    “The sentiment expressed in these findings echoes what we’re witnessing in other parts of the economy as we navigate through the trough of the economic cycle. If anything, the confidence levels amongst survey respondents are on the weaker side of broader confidence indicators. This may reflect the Māori economy’s considerable investments in agriculture, forestry, and property – sectors that are currently under some strain,” he says.

    Other findings include:

    • The majority (82%) of respondents expect costs to increase further over the coming 12 months.
    • Over the coming 12 months, more survey respondents expect profitability to deteriorate than to improve (27% increase vs. 33% decrease).
    • A similar proportion of respondents expect employment levels in their business to drop (29% increase vs. 34% decrease)

    Opportunities amidst adversity

    Despite the challenges, the survey also revealed signs of resilience and optimism among Māori businesses. While only 15% of respondents saw improvements in business conditions over the past year, a higher proportion (26%) anticipate better conditions in the coming 12 months.

    Furthermore, more than 1 in 3 (37%) of those responding to the survey intend to boost investment in the coming year versus 24% that expect it to decrease. This may be signalling confidence in future growth potential.

    “The investment plans reported in our survey are more robust compared to what we’ve seen in other business confidence surveys. As the economic cycle matures, we’ll be closely monitoring whether these intentions gain further momentum,” says Jones.

    About the BNZ Māori Business Sentiment Survey

    The launch of this survey is a continuation of BNZ’s commitment to Māori business and contributes to its wider strategy to facilitate financial solutions for Māori and enable whānau Māori and businesses to prosper.

    More detailed findings and analysis are available here.

    An infographic is available here.

    The survey was in field May 2024 with base n = 125. Results are indicative, collected using a sample of convenience including BNZ Māori business customers. Results are intended only for discussion and should not be relied upon for decision-making or regarded as representative of the Māori business sector as a whole. For more information on how BNZ can support Māori businesses, visit Māori Business – BNZ.

    The post BNZ’s new Māori Business Sentiment Survey reveals challenges and opportunities amid economic headwinds appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ latest big name to invest in AgriZeroNZ

    Source: BNZ statements

    Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) is the latest business to join the growing lineup of private sector companies backing AgriZeroNZ, alongside government, to get emissions reduction tools into Kiwi farmers’ hands sooner.

    Announcing the new shareholder today, Hon Todd McClay, Minister for Agriculture & Trade, confirmed the government would match BNZ’s $4 million investment, boosting AgriZeroNZ’s funds by $8milllion to total $191 million.

    BNZ joins The a2 Milk Company, ANZ Bank New Zealand, ANZCO Foods, ASB Bank, Fonterra, Rabobank, Ravensdown, Silver Fern Farms and Synlait with a combined 50% shareholding of the joint venture (JV). With the government’s increased investment, it owns the remaining half through the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI).

    AgriZeroNZ Board Chair, Sir Brian Roche KNZM, says this provides a welcome boost in funds to achieve the JV’s ambition and maintain the multibillion-dollar agricultural export trade.

    “I’m pleased more of the private sector is joining us to help get practical tools into farmers’ hands.

    “New Zealand farmers are highly efficient producers of milk and meat for the world, but global companies that pay a premium for these products – such as McDonald’s, Nestlé, Danone, Tesco and Sainsbury’s – are all pushing deep into their supply chain for emissions reduction, with ambitious scope 3 targets.

    “These customers want to see more progress and we need to act now, or we risk losing these high-end customers and potentially breaching trade agreements. Further to this, competitor markets with more intensive farms are getting access to new tools to reduce emissions so they could take our place in supplying these customers.

    “There is a very real and very disruptive risk to our agricultural sector from the need to reduce emissions but there is also an opportunity to stay among the most efficient producers in the world if we can get the right tools to our farmers.

    “We’re confident that with our ambition, expertise, and increasing reach through the private sector, we’ll have 2-3 tools in widespread use by 2030.”

    Sir Brian Roche KNZM, AgriZeroNZ Board Chair, says the JV Is confident it will have 2-3 tools in widespread use by 2030

    BNZ CEO Dan Huggins says the bank is pleased to support AgriZeroNZ and partner with government and some of the country’s largest primary sector businesses to back its farming customers by investing in tools to help reduce emissions and maintain New Zealand’s competitive advantage in agriculture.

    “BNZ has a long history of banking New Zealand farmers, and over that time we have worked alongside our farming customers as they have continually adapted and innovated to meet changing market dynamics.

    “This public-private partnership approach to addressing on farm emissions continues that tradition, helping to ensure New Zealand maintains a resilient and productive agricultural sector into the future,” he says.

    Dan Huggins, BNZ CEO, says it is investing in tools to help reduce emissions and maintain New Zealand’s competitive advantage in agriculture.

    AgriZeroNZ is a world-first public-private partnership with an ambition to ensure all farmers in Aotearoa New Zealand have equitable access to affordable, effective solutions to reduce biogenic methane and nitrous oxide emissions, supporting a 30% reduction by 2030 and drive towards ‘near zero’ by 2040.

    Since being established in February 2023, the JV has committed more than $29M across 10 high impact opportunities to bring emissions reduction solutions to market for Kiwi farmers. This includes a methane-inhibiting bolus, novel probiotics, methane vaccine development, and low emissions pasture.

    It recently raised $18million from The a2 Milk Company, ANZ Bank New Zealand and ASB Bank becoming shareholders in April, with their funding also matched by government.

    AgriZeroNZ has over 77 potential investment opportunities on its radar for review as it continues scanning the globe for solutions which could work on New Zealand farms, to invest and drive development towards a pasture-based solution. It is also working with officials to clarify the regulatory pathway in New Zealand for tools to be used on-farm.

    The post BNZ latest big name to invest in AgriZeroNZ appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: Wellington skyline gets a facelift as BNZ’s new building in the central city officially opens

    Source: BNZ statements

    Te Whanganui ā Tara (Wellington’s) skyline is evolving as Bank of New Zealand’s (BNZ) 15-storey new home in the central city – BNZ Place – today officially opened its doors to colleagues and customers.








    Under construction since 2020, the architecturally designed building, occupies a full city block on the corner of Whitmore Street and Customhouse Quay, and was officially opened by Finance Minister Nicola Willis at a special event this morning.

    CEO Dan Huggins says the striking new building reflects BNZ’s longstanding commitment to the capital city.

    “BNZ has been proudly serving Wellington’s communities for 160 years, and BNZ Place not only reflects our commitment to the city but also our vision for the future. We’re thrilled that we are able to share this vibrant and innovative space with our customers, colleagues, and the people of Wellington.”

    Designed to be modern and resilient, the building’s unique shape and structural design was informed by extensive research, including wind tunnel testing and seismic hazard assessments. The new headquarters represents a fresh start after the former BNZ building on Waterloo Quay was demolished in 2019, one of several buildings deemed irreparable after the Kaikōura earthquake in 2016.

    BNZ Place offers a branch and customer service centre for retail and business banking and a public café on the ground floor. As New Zealand’s largest business bank, BNZ’s Partner Centre offers BNZ business customers state-of-the-art meeting rooms and office space with views of Wellington’s harbour which can be booked and utilised at no cost.

    Newcrest Director Lincoln Fraser says, “We are proud to welcome BNZ’s customers and colleagues into their new Wellington home at the completion of what has been an exciting and highly collaborative project. The Newcrest and BNZ project teams have worked closely together to deliver a landmark building with market leading resilience and energy efficiency.”

    BNZ Place at 1 Whitmore Street combines sustainability and innovation, aiming for a 5-star green rating with features like high-performance solar control glass and energy-efficient systems, supported by base isolation and a structural steel diagrid. Efficient floorplates, a double-height high entry lobby, inter-floor stairs, a rooftop courtyard, and panoramic views contribute to the state-of-the-art facility.

    The design, development and internal fitout of the building also provided an opportunity for BNZ to support its business customers, with Studio Pacific Architecture, Vidak, Alaska Construction, Europlan, and Egmont Dixon all contributing to the build. In addition, the bank collaborated with another BNZ customer, Maxwell Rodgers, using their sustainably sourced wool fabrics to re-upholster and up-cycle furniture from the bank’s previous office, reducing waste to landfill.

    “BNZ Place firmly cements our commitment to the capital, and we look forward to welcoming everyone to our new home,” Mr Huggins says.

    Tracing BNZ’s roots in Wellington

    BNZ’s history in Wellington began in 1862 with temporary offices on Willis Street. Over the years, BNZ has been a pioneer in architectural innovation, from the first drive-in bank in New Zealand to the construction of the Aon Centre in Wellington in the 1980s, the tallest building in New Zealand at the time of construction.

    The bank’s architectural legacy includes the innovative use of reclaimed land for its early headquarters, the 1901 building designed by Thomas Turnbull, the purpose-built BNZ Centre in 1985, and the transition to a 5-star green building on the Wellington waterfront.

    A brief history

    In 1862, BNZ purchased a triangular section on reclaimed land with a frontage along Lambton and Customhouse Quay. The architect was William Mason of Dunedin. The location of the entrance door was later moved due to Wellington’s high winds.

    Wellington 1863 building. Cnr Lambton and Customhouse Quay.
    Wellington 1863 building. Cnr Lambton and Customhouse Quay. Photograph taken 1878 and shows the relocation of the main doorway.
    Wellington premises built in 1901 (before removal of parapet) c.1920
    Wellington Branch premises 1901 (after parapet removed) photo taken 1978.

     

    In 1899, the earlier bank and adjoining Brandon Building were demolished to be replaced with a larger building following the subsequent purchasing of an additional 4 sections of land.

    Since 1901, three other buildings on the block bounded by Lambton and Customhouse Quays and Hunter Street were purchased and occupied by various departments of BNZ’s Headquarters.

     

    In 1985, the purpose built BNZ Centre was opened across the road. An underground tunnel linked the Old Bank and the New ‘Black Tower’. At the time of its construction, it was the tallest building in NZ (replaced by the BNZ Tower when that opened in Auckland in 1986). It remained the tallest building in Wellington until the opening of the Majestic Centre in 1991.

    BNZ Centre, Wellington 1984

     
    In 2009 BNZ moved out of the BNZ Centre and leased a purpose-built office building located on the Wellington waterfront, referred to as ‘Harbour Quays’. Owned by Centre Port, this building was a 5-star green building, later achieving 6 start for the interior fitout. Following the November 2016 earthquake, the building remained empty with BNZ staff re-located into temporary office sites around the Wellington CBD. The building has since been demolished.

     
     

     

     

    		 BNZ colleagues from The Terrace, Spark Central and Ricoh House are now reunited at BNZ Place, Wellington. A branch, community centre and collaborative workplace will co-exist in the same building in the heart of Wellington’s CBD. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

    The post Wellington skyline gets a facelift as BNZ’s new building in the central city officially opens appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ welcomes changes to affordability rules

    Source: BNZ statements

    BNZ welcomes changes to the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Regulations and an update to the Responsible Lending Code.

    The changes, announced by Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly, are designed to give lenders more flexibility in how they assess consumer loan affordability, while still ensuring responsible lending practices.

    James Leydon, GM Home Lending Product says, “At BNZ, we’re committed to supporting our customers’ financial aspirations. Whether you’re buying your first home, upsizing for a growing family, or undertaking your dream reno, we’ll be able to assess your loan application with more flexibility, in line with the updated Responsible Lending Code.

    “By giving lenders more flexibility in assessing loan affordability, we can better serve New Zealanders. This approach ensures that creditworthy customers aren’t unnecessarily held back by prescriptive affordability requirements. This will help unlock opportunities for many, without compromising our responsible lending obligations.

    “We look forward to implementing these changes promptly when they take effect on July 31st, ensuring our customers can benefit from a more streamlined lending process as soon as possible.”

    The post BNZ welcomes changes to affordability rules appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ offers support for East Coast and Hawke’s Bay customers impacted by severe weather

    Source: BNZ statements

    BNZ is offering targeted support for customers affected by severe weather and flooding in Hawke’s Bay and the East Coast.

    “We recognise that some of our customers may be facing unexpected challenges due to the severe weather,” says Anna Flower, BNZ Executive Personal and Business Banking.

    “As they focus on the clean-up and recovery, we want to offer practical support to help relieve some of the financial pressure during this time.”

    Available immediately, BNZ is offering a range of targeted assistance options for affected customers on a case-by-case basis, from access to temporary overdrafts for both personal and business customers to the ability to review home lending facilities.

    “There are also a range of other options available, especially for customers who are facing hardship, so I encourage people to get in touch so we can see how we can help,” she said.

    Business and agribusiness customers should reach out to their BNZ Partner. Small business owners can call 0800 BNZSME, while personal banking customers can access support through BNZ’s digital platforms or by calling 0800 ASKBNZ.

    BNZ PremierCare Insurance customers who need assistance can call IAG NZ on 0800 248 888 or submit an online claim https://iagnz.custhelp.com/app/bnz

     

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    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: Money Month 2024: BNZ survey reveals retirement concerns

    Source: BNZ statements

    A BNZ survey has highlighted the importance of financial education as Sorted Money Month 2024 begins. Coordinated by Te Ara Ahunga Ora Retirement Commission, the annual campaign aims to equip New Zealanders with education, resources, and tools to better navigate their financial journey.

    The survey* uncovered some significant concerns about retirement preparedness:

    • Nearly four in ten (39%) respondents aren’t confident they’ll have saved enough for retirement
    • One quarter lacked confidence in making investment decisions, with younger people (aged 25-44), lower-income households, and non-homeowners particularly affected
    • 74% felt they can’t rely on NZ Super for their retirement, including those who believed it won’t provide sufficient income, or had concerns it may change in the future

    Anna Flower, Executive, Personal and Business Banking at BNZ, says, “These findings highlight the importance of financial education and early planning. Money Month is an opportunity for people to take that crucial first step towards financial preparedness.”

    Continuing and building on last year’s theme “Pause. Get sorted,” Money Month 2024 focuses on actions to help people grow their money and build resilience.

    “Understanding concepts like compounding interest and starting your savings journey early – even with small, regular amounts – can significantly enhance financial outcomes,” Flower says.

    The survey also highlighted KiwiSaver’s role in long-term financial health, with 89% of respondents enrolled. However, 16% revealed they aren’t making regular contributions, highlighting the need for ongoing education and engagement.

    “People think investing is for the wealthy, but investing is for everyone, and KiwiSaver is the easiest and most accessible way to get started,” Flower says.

    “For those not contributing, it’s important to understand that you could be leaving money on the table. With KiwiSaver, in addition to your own savings, you can benefit from both government and employer contributions. These additional contributions can make a real difference to your savings over time, helping put you in a much stronger position for retirement or buying your first home.”

    Supporting your goals

    While Money Month shines a spotlight on financial health, BNZ is committed to supporting financial wellbeing throughout the year.

    “Our free Banking Reviews are designed to align customers’ banking with their financial goals and enhance their overall financial health,” Flower says.

    These reviews involve building a comprehensive understanding of an individual’s financial goals and needs – from day-to-day transactions to borrowing, investments, and insurance. This holistic approach allows for tailored advice and personalised recommendations to support overall financial health.

    “Our experts are always here to discuss your savings goals, advise on home loans, or help you use our BNZ KiwiSaver Scheme Navigator to understand how to get on track with your retirement savings. These reviews ensure that banking solutions work for what’s important to customers now and in the future,” she says.

    In addition, BNZ offers a range of online tools and resources to help New Zealanders take control of their finances. The BNZ app’s Activity tab enables customers to track their spending, categorise transactions, and manage cashflow across personal accounts. For homeowners, the MyProperty tool provides insights into home loans, allowing users to explore scenarios like changing repayments or assessing the impact of different interest rates and what impact this may have on their mortgage free date. These digital tools, along with comprehensive calculators and other resources, support customers in making informed financial decisions.

    “Don’t let another year pass without taking charge of your financial future. Whether you’re just starting out or looking to optimise your investments for retirement, now is the time to act. Small steps today, like ensuring you’re making the most of your KiwiSaver or booking a Banking Review, can lead to meaningful improvements in your financial well-being tomorrow.”

    For more information on Money Month initiatives and to access financial resources, visit www.sorted.org.nz

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    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ simplifies home loan offering, delivering savings for first home buyers and low equity borrowers

    Source: BNZ statements

    In a move that will make borrowing simpler and more affordable for first home buyers and low equity borrowers, Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) today announced changes to its home loan offerings.

    In addition to a raft of home lending interest rate reductions this morning, BNZ is moving to a single set of home loan fixed interest rates, simplifying its previous two-tier structure of Classic and Standard rates. This change removes the previous 0.60% difference in the rates available to borrowers with less than 20% equity.

    New borrowers with less than 20% equity will benefit from the lower Standard fixed interest rates, resulting in reduced overall borrowing costs for these customers. Low equity premiums will continue to apply based on individual customers’ equity positions.

    BNZ Executive Customer Products and Services Karna Luke says these changes will make a real difference for many New Zealanders.

    “The simpler home loan rates mean that all customers will be able to access our best home loan rates, even if they don’t have 20% equity.

    For example, a first home buyer borrowing $500,000 with a 15% deposit on a 30-year term would save $78 per fortnight based on the current 1-year fixed rate advertised on the BNZ website*. Over a 1-year fixed term, this amounts to savings of more than $2,000.

    “These changes reflect our commitment to growing the long-term financial wellbeing of all New Zealanders,” says Luke.

    “By making home loans simpler, we aim to help more Kiwis to achieve their home ownership aspirations.”

    The new pricing takes effect from today for new customers and will apply to existing low equity customers when they next refix their home loan.

    *1 year interest rate of 6.55% as of 20 August 2024.

    The post BNZ simplifies home loan offering, delivering savings for first home buyers and low equity borrowers appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: The economy in ten pics

    Source: BNZ statements

    • RBNZ kickstarts the easing cycle
    • Greenlights a slow ‘n’ steady downtrend
    • Helps the 2025 economic outlook, but near-term growth picture still troubled
    • With labour market to weaken further
    • Housing market in focus

     

    View PDF here

     

    Chart 1: So it begins

    There was nothing in the Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) announcement to greatly challenge our view of the world. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) was lowered 25bps to 5.25% as we expected. The interest rate brake is still on, just less so than before.

    The most important aspect of the meeting in our view was the confirmation that the OCR will move a lot lower over the coming 18 months.

    It needs to. Our rough estimate of the ‘real’ (inflation-adjusted) cash rate has increased in recent months, even with this week’s cut. And it’s a long way down for the OCR to the RBNZ’s estimate of the long-run neutral rate around 3%.

    Chart 2: Chop

    The RBNZ’s updated forecasts were a shadow of their former selves. GDP growth, inflation and OCR forecasts got a chop while unemployment rate expectations were lifted ½% or so to a 5½% peak.

    This brings the RBNZ’s view of the economy down to, or even a touch weaker than, where we’ve been seeing things. Importantly, CPI inflation is now seen well inside the 1-3% target range in Q3 (2.3%y/y from 3.0% in May). As of yesterday, we concur.

    It means there’s a higher hurdle for incoming data to surprise the RBNZ on the downside. That doesn’t rule out a larger 50bps OCR cut being deployed at some point, but it does lean against the possibility in the short term.

    Chart 3: Joining the rate race

    Having been something of an outlier for a while, NZ is now back in the policy easing peloton. Most developed markets anticipate sizeable interest rate cuts over the coming 12 months.

    Markets price a better than even chance of a 50bp start to the US Federal Reserve’s easing cycle next month which, if delivered, may embolden global rate cut pricing further.

    Of those markets covered opposite, implied policy easing to February 2025 is most aggressive for the US (-185bps), NZ (-150bps), and Canada (-130bps), with Australia (-65bps) and Japan (+10bps) at the other end of the field.

    Chart 4: US sniffles

    Global financial markets have recovered much of their poise following the steep equity market declines of early last week. Sentiment is not what it was though. Investors are suddenly alert to any number of global fragilities.

    Most of the ‘blame’ for the wobble has been pinned on cooling tech/AI exuberance and US growth concerns. The outsized reaction last week may reflect the additional, creeping reliance on the US to drive the global expansion this year. The old ‘US catches a cold’ adage is still relevant.

    Chart 5: Jobs growth stalled

    The number of people employed nudged up 0.4% in the June quarter, according to official figures released last week. We’d pencilled in a small decline. Unemployment still rose to 4.6% as expected.

    Q2’s employment kick is unlikely to be repeated this quarter, and it also doesn’t change the broader narrative of jobs growth effectively stalling around mid-2023.

    Amongst the sectoral detail, it’s clear that the construction sector has been at the vanguard of the changing employment market.

    Chart 6: Relocating for work

    The lift in NZ’s unemployment rate in Q2 maintained a ½ percentage point gap to the (4.1%) Aussie equivalent.

    It doesn’t sound large, but that gap is the widest since 2013. Not coincidentally, net migration outflows to Australia are also running at the strongest level since 2013. People move to where the jobs are.

    Our forecasts imply both trends have got a ways to run. A climb in the NZ unemployment rate to a 5.5% peak in early 2025 against a lower (4.6%) peak in Australia would, on past form, be consistent with an acceleration in net outflows.

    Chart 7: Green f(lags)

    Wage inflation peaked in NZ about a year ago. We saw another notch in the downtrend last week. The private sector Labour Cost Index eased to 3.6%y/y in June, down from 3.8% the prior quarter and the 4.5% peak.

    More of the same easing is expected over the coming 12 months. It’s something that should help drain still-elevated domestic services inflation pressure. So, it’s not that high interest rates have been ineffective on non-tradables inflation, it’s that the impacts take time to turn up. The lags are real!

    Chart 8: No retail respite

    The trend in NZ retail card spending abruptly turned in early 2023, and it’s been downhill ever since. July’s 0.1%m/m contraction was the 6th consecutive monthly decline. Discretionary categories remain the hardest hit.

    The weakness is even more pronounced once buoyant population growth is accounted for. Our estimate of the average monthly spend per (working age) person is 8% below March 2023 levels. It’s a deeper and longer contraction than during the 2008 GFC.

    We’re hopeful the downtrend soon stabilises. Tax and interest rate cuts are supports, but falling population growth and job security are not.

    Chart 9: Housing market in focus

    The release of July REINZ housing market numbers has been shunted out to Tuesday, thus missing the cut for this edition of TEITC.

    But, it’s fair to say, housing stats will be watched more closely than usual as folk scour for green shoots in a sector likely to be one of the earlier responders to (recent and expected) falls in retail interest rates. There are stirrings in some of the anecdote and surveys, but we think the prognosis is more stabilisation than acceleration, for now.

    In the least, we’d expect a hearty bounce-back in July sales activity following the outsized, Matariki holiday-related, drop in June. That’s what we saw from this week’s Barfoot & Thompson figures covering a share of the Auckland market.

    Chart 10: Food for thought

    Food prices lifted 0.4%m/m (seasonally adjusted) in July. Prices have been flattish for the past year, but they’re still up 24% on 2020 levels.

    As you’d expect, there’s been a fair bit of variation amongst the components over that time. If you’re partial to an omelette and/or yogurt for breakfast you will be feeling the pinch a lot more than some. At least your morning brew is still, relatively speaking, cost effective.

    To subscribe to Mike’s updates click here

    Disclaimer: This publication has been produced by Bank of New Zealand (BNZ). This publication accurately reflects the personal views of the author about the subject matters discussed, and is based upon sources reasonably believed to be reliable and accurate. The views of the author do not necessarily reflect the views of BNZ. No part of the compensation of the author was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to any specific recommendations or views expressed. The information in this publication is solely for information purposes and is not intended to be financial advice. If you need help, please contact BNZ or your financial adviser. Any statements as to past performance do not represent future performance, and no statements as to future matters are guaranteed to be accurate or reliable. To the maximum extent permissible by law, neither BNZ nor any person involved in this publication accepts any liability for any loss or damage whatsoever which may directly or indirectly result from any, opinion, information, representation or omission, whether negligent or otherwise, contained in this publication.

    The post The economy in ten pics appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ the first NZ bank to achieve next open banking (open data) milestone

    Source: BNZ statements

    Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) has taken another critical step toward open banking—better described as open data—becoming the first bank in New Zealand to meet a major milestone set by Payments NZ.

    BNZ has implemented the Payments NZ Account Information API v2.1 standards, which when open banking is fully operational, will enable New Zealanders to safely and securely share their financial information with approved providers.

    “While it sounds a little dull, API v2.1 is really the engine room of open data. It’s the piece of the tech puzzle that means our customers have full control over what data they share, who they share it with and importantly, it gives them control to stop sharing their data too,” says Karna Luke, BNZ’s Executive of Customer Products and Services.

    Payments NZ plays a key role in establishing the open banking system and has set New Zealand’s major banks the task of implementing Account Information API v2.1 standards by November this year. This follows the May 2024 requirement for major banks to support payments via APIs, enabling direct account payments through third-party apps. BNZ achieved this in 2023.

    “That we’ve been able to reach this milestone three months ahead of the deadline reflects the commitment that BNZ has made to support the implementation of open banking. Over 250,000 BNZ customers are already benefitting from innovative services made possible through this technology, including services from Xero, Volley, and Blinkpay, all of which connect to BNZ through secure APIs,” says Luke.

    What it all means for customers

    This secure access to real-time financial data empowers third-party providers and fintechs to provide customers with new, innovative, and highly personalised financial products and services. Potential use cases include:

    • Personalised budgeting tools: Apps that offer tailored budgeting advice based on real-time financial data and spending habits, helping users manage their finances more effectively.
    • Customised savings plans: Solutions that design personalised savings plans and automate transfers based on users’ financial behaviour and goals.
    • Advanced financial insights: Tools that provide detailed analysis of spending patterns and identify new financial opportunities, enhancing users’ understanding of their financial situation.
    • Streamlined loan applications: More efficient loan processes that simplify and speed up approval by leveraging comprehensive account information.
    • Fraud detection and prevention: Facilitating third party apps or services to use real-time account data to identify unusual activity, improving security.

    “Being the first bank in New Zealand to deliver this API demonstrates our focus on helping drive the future of open banking in New Zealand,” says Luke.

    “We’re excited to see more fintechs and developers join those we’re already working with to leverage this technology to create innovative solutions that will benefit our customers and the country.”

    “It’s also important to remember that banking services are just the beginning. The Customer and Product Data Bill currently progressing through Parliament will establish a Consumer Data Right (CDR) in New Zealand, enabling open data sharing across multiple sectors.”

    This will further unlock digital innovation, making it possible to do things like instantly and securely verifying your identity online, via the information held about you by your bank, insurer or power company, or finding the best deal across utility or insurance companies and switching easily.

    For more information about the Account Information API v2.1 and its capabilities, please visit https://developer.bnz.co.nz/

    The post BNZ the first NZ bank to achieve next open banking (open data) milestone appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ and Adminis sign API agreement to streamline foreign exchange in NZ banking first

    Source: BNZ statements

    In a move to enhance access to foreign exchange markets, Wellington-based fintech Adminis has signed an API agreement with BNZ—the first bank in New Zealand to offer an FX dealing API.

    An API, or Application Programming Interface, is a secure tool that allows different software programmes to connect and share information automatically. With this agreement, Adminis customers can access BNZ’s comprehensive foreign exchange services directly from the Adminis platform.

    Customers can exchange currencies in real-time and execute transactions almost instantly, lock in future rates to protect against market volatility, and put their funds to work quickly and securely, without delays from manual processing.

    The agreement also provides continuous access to international markets, operating 24 hours a day, 5.5 days a week – from the opening of the Wellington market to the close of New York. This means Adminis customers can trade currencies and manage risks even when local markets, such as those in New Zealand, are closed overnight. This access spans major FX markets across the USA, Europe, and Asia.

    Adminis CEO, Matan Gan-El, says, “We are excited to work with BNZ to bring this innovative solution to our platform, which supports over $11 billion in funds under administration for our clients. This agreement will enable our clients to streamline their foreign exchange transactions, optimise risk management, and make more informed decisions when investing and rebalancing their portfolios.

    “The API integration will not only make it easy to automate foreign exchange transactions based on predefined criteria, but also facilitate locking in exchange rates through Forward Exchange Contracts, improving the speed and accuracy of deal booking while managing currency fluctuation risks.”

    BNZ’s General Manager of Markets, Philippa Fourbet, says, “We’re proud to be the first bank in the country to offer an FX dealing API. Since 2018, BNZ has been at the forefront of API development in the banking sector, with more than 250,000 customers already benefitting from innovative products and services unlocked by this technology.

    “This collaboration reflects our focus on using the latest technology to deliver tangible benefits for New Zealanders and businesses. We’re thrilled to be making it easier for businesses to manage their FX transactions, saving them valuable time and resources.”

    For more information on BNZ’s APIs, please visit BNZ APIs – BNZ.

    The post BNZ and Adminis sign API agreement to streamline foreign exchange in NZ banking first appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Know your place: what happened to class in British politics – a new podcast series from The Conversation Documentaries

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura Hood, Host, Know Your Place podcast, The Conversation

    Even in the 21st century, social class is a part of being British. We talk of living in a post-class era but, in reality, our backgrounds affect our life chances and even just the way we interact with each other. We have a sense of our own class and make assumptions about others with class in the back of our minds.

    In a recent documentary about their rise to fame, David and Victoria Beckham squabbled about the latter’s claim to come from a working class family. She was derided across the internet for the claim, too.

    Is Victoria Beckham working class? You may scoff at the very thought. But then consider when she stopped being working class and you start to see the problem. If a wealthy British person who owns her own business is not working class, when did she cease to be so? Are her parents still working class if she is not?

    For much of the 20th century, class identities were clearer. There was also a strong, clear relationship between class and political preference. After all, one of the two main parties was established explicitly to represent the labour movement. It was loudly and proudly a political manifestation of the working class.

    There were of course exceptions but, by and large, if someone knew your class, they could make a fairly safe guess as to how you would vote. That is no longer true.

    This is what I’m exploring in a new podcast series Know your place: what happened to class in British politics on The Conversation Documentaries. Listen to the trailer now ahead of the series launch on October 7.

    Over the course of five episodes, I’ll be speaking to leading politics experts across the UK to find out why Labour can no longer take the working class vote for granted but also why the Conservatives can’t either.

    We’ll find out the truth behind the Liberal Democrats’ “Gail’s strategy” to capture the middle classes. We’ll explore how class is even defined in the 21st century and pinpoint when it stopped being the case that your background shaped your politics.

    And as the UK ushers in ostensibly the most working-class parliament that has been seen in years, we’ll investigate what difference it makes when people from working-class backgrounds hold the levers of power.

    Follow The Conversation Documentaries to listen to Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics from October 7. The Conversation Documentaries, formerly called The Anthill, is the home for in-depth documentary podcast series from The Conversation.

    Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics is produced and mixed by Anouk Millet for The Conversation. It’s supported by the National Centre for Social Research.

    Newsclips in the trailer from Keir Starmer, ITV News, PoliticsJOE and Angela Rayner MP.

    Listen to The Conversation Documentaries via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics is supported by the National Centre for Social Research.

    – ref. Know your place: what happened to class in British politics – a new podcast series from The Conversation Documentaries – https://theconversation.com/know-your-place-what-happened-to-class-in-british-politics-a-new-podcast-series-from-the-conversation-documentaries-239451

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sri Lanka’s new leftist president marks departure from political family rule

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amalendu Misra, Professor of International Politics, Lancaster University

    Sri Lanka has sworn in 55-year-old leftist politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake as its new president. There was no clear winner after the first round of votes from Saturday’s election had been counted. But Dissanayake, who is commonly known by his initials AKD, emerged victorious after a count of the second-choice votes.

    His election is something of a watershed. It was the first time since Sri Lanka gained independence in 1948 that the presidential race was decided by a second round of counting after either of the top two candidates failed to win the mandatory 50% of the vote. And it was also the only time that voters have elected a candidate who does not belong to the country’s traditional ruling elite.

    Sri Lanka has long been held in the tight grip of a handful of powerful political families. The Rajapaksa dynasty, for example, had dominated Sri Lankan politics for well over two decades before mass protests over a severe economic crisis unseated the country’s leader, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, in 2022.

    AKD’s campaign rhetoric centred largely around corruption as the key culprit in the economic woes facing the country. Previous governments have been linked not only to corruption, but also to human rights abuses and the military’s encroachment on the civilian space. Persuaded by his logic of openness and transformation, voters saw AKD as an opportunity to change Sri Lanka’s stale political system.

    Following his election, AKD declared in characteristic Marxian mode: “This victory belongs to all of us.” Assuaging the demands of the masses for change will be a priority.

    Voters have chosen a new president for the first time since mass protests unseated Sri Lanka’s leader in 2022.
    Color Collector / Shutterstock

    AKD comes from a strong leftwing ideological background. He leads a political outfit called the Janatha Vimukti Peramuna (JVP), which is by no means a heavyweight party. It has only three members in the country’s 225-member parliament, and does not come with an attractive pedigree.

    The JVP is seen in Sri Lanka as a fringe reactionary party due to its involvement in violent insurrections and targeted assassinations that left thousands dead in the 1980s. Given Sri Lanka’s fractious ethno-nationalist politics, how the JVP and its new national leader carry the masses forward on a national regeneration project would be anybody’s guess.

    But AKD has shown himself to be aware of the underlying tensions in the country and, since becoming the JVP’s leader in 2008, has apologised for the party’s past violence. In his swearing-in speech, AKD declared: “We need to establish a new clean political culture … We will do the utmost to win back the people’s respect and trust in the political system.”

    The road ahead

    There are several critical challenges that AKD needs to face head on – the most important of which concerns the country’s failing economy. After all, it was acute economic hardship that drove the citizenry to vote for political change.

    In the past, a substantial portion of whatever Sri Lanka managed to procure through its two main sources of income, tourism and remittances sent home by citizens living abroad, went towards settling its external debts. However, these earnings were hit badly by the pandemic and the country’s economic woes spiralled out of control.

    The rate of inflation soared and dwindling reserves of foreign currency resulted in acute shortages of essential goods and services. Then, in May 2022, Sri Lanka defaulted on its foreign debt for the first time in its history.

    This scenario quickly led to a national emergency. Faced with the most devastating economic crisis since independence, a countrywide uprising (colloquially known as the aragalaya) ousted Gotabaya Rajapaksa from office.

    The removal of Rajapaksa secured an uneasy peace, and things have since tentatively improved on the economic front. Ranil Wickremesinghe took over as the interim president in 2022 and his administration managed to secure a loan worth US$3 billion (£2.2 billion) from the International Monetary Fund.

    The economy now appears to be on a slow path of recovery. It is expected to grow in 2024 for the first time in three years, supported by a narrower trade deficit and growing remittances.

    Sri Lanka’s interim president, Ranil Wickremesinghe, has congratulated Dissanayake on winning the election.
    Ruwan Walpola / Shutterstock

    AKD is aware of the enormity of the burden he carries. As he admitted while accepting the role of president: “I have said before that I am not a magician – I am an ordinary citizen. There are things I know and don’t know. My aim is to gather those with the knowledge and skills to help lift this country.”

    His pro-working class and anti-political elite campaigning without doubt made AKD popular among youth, and helped him secure victory. But his ideology may well be at odds with the foreign lenders who have kept the economy afloat for past two decades.

    Sri Lanka’s new president faces a precarious balancing act to satisfy both a population high on hopes of populist subsidies and the demands of external lenders to tighten the country’s belts.

    Amalendu Misra is a recipient of British Academy and Nuffield Foundation Fellowships.

    – ref. Sri Lanka’s new leftist president marks departure from political family rule – https://theconversation.com/sri-lankas-new-leftist-president-marks-departure-from-political-family-rule-239631

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Sally Rooney’s new novel, Intermezzo, is her longest and best consideration of “idiotic desire and love” yet

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Orlaith Darling, PhD Candidate, Contemporary English Literature and Critical Theory, Trinity College Dublin

    On the level of theme, the Irish writer Sally Rooney is firmly in her wheelhouse in her new novel Intermezzo. We find Peter and Ivan Koubek having just lost their father and trying to forge a life through and past this bereavement by way of intimate relationships.

    Peter, a barrister in his early 30s, is embroiled in a semi-secret situation-ship with a much younger college student and former sex worker, Naomi. He balances this with his longstanding and largely chaste relationship with a former long-term girlfriend, Sylvia.

    Ivan, a decade younger and aeons less suave than his older brother, has meanwhile taken up with Margaret, a 36-year-old woman he meets while playing chess in Leitrim, a county in the north-west of Ireland.

    So far, so familiar. Anyone seeking plot-driven fiction without a romantic bent from Rooney should know better by now.

    The minor stylistic differences between Intermezzo and her other books reviewers have noted are all moderated by the manifest continuities in Rooney’s authorly concerns.

    We read Rooney because she is that unusual writer whose characters raise serious and abiding questions about the particular historical, social and economic moments they inhabit. Her characters manage to do so without ever feeling like anything less than fully developed, psychologically complex individuals.

    In Conversations with Friends and Normal People, the faltering of young relationships and first love tested the characters’ ideologies against their behaviours, their politics against their morals. In Beautiful World, emails allowed Alice and Eileen the space to describe what it feels like to live in a moment of historical crisis even as life (in the alternating chapters) carries on unchanged.

    This very Rooney-esque tension is, in Intermezzo, parlayed as a struggle between brothers, where Peter castigates various beliefs of Ivan’s and Ivan accuses Peter of privileging principle over conduct.

    Ivan thinks that “Peter is the kind of person who goes along the surface of life very smoothly.” This, for the record, is not at all reflected in Peter’s inner monologue, which proceeds via truncated sentence fragments and is peppered by wishes that he was dead.

    Life, for Peter, seems to be closing in, and is all the more claustrophobic given the seemingly total clarity with which he remembers “When life was perfect.” He at once envies and feels a great depth of compassion for those whose lives are constantly buffeted by the material forces from which his well-paying job shields him.

    Ivan has, at various times, felt himself existing outside of life. He can explain eloquently his opinions on the late capitalist economy (fake), he has a physics degree, a formidable reputation in competitive chess and a history of subscribing to questionable YouTube channels of a distinctly incel flavour. Yet, in Ivan, we see Rooney’s great optimism for people and how they might be redeemed.

    Ivan frequently confronts the difficulty of paying rent, of living in a world where a person cannot do something as prosaic as have a dog. But these problems are tempered by a feeling that the world is nevertheless beginning to open up for him. As he muses, it is surely better to face down these “never-ending struggle[s]” with optimism than be worn down by them. When he meets Margaret, he feels increasingly assured that the world does “make room for goodness and decency.”

    This newest book is perhaps Rooney’s most mature reflection on how relationships operate as exercises in optimism, both in each other and in the world itself. Intermezzo is remarkable and bracing on the exchange of promises that happens in relationships, on the currency of hope they run on, and mutual, voluntary emotional debts they create. These debts, of course, are not always repaid, and that is part of the point: the stakes of love are high, and we run the risk of defaulting and being defaulted on.

    And yet, for Rooney, this risk is always worth taking. It must be, because it is all there is. Rooney’s is a world in which relationships sustain us and in which small daily miracles make life seem more bearable than is proportionate. This might be as simple as the unthinking care enacted by such an everyday chore as “making up [a] packed lunch, Nutella sandwiches, an apple wrapped in kitchen roll” for someone else, or the unrationed totality of love a dog shows its owner after an absence.

    As with each of her novels before this, Rooney’s power as a writer is to focus attention on the crazy hope we place in other people’s ability to sustain us and the anxiety we feel about what we could possibly offer in return. And, against all suggestions of departure, this is the main point of continuity across Rooney’s oeuvre.

    Rooney appears to share the views of many of her characters. Like Frances in Conversations with Friends who says “[y]ou live through certain things before you understand them. You can’t always take the analytical position”. Like Marianne in Normal People who believes that “people can really change one another”. Like Eileen in Beautiful World who hopes that “the most ordinary thing about human beings is not violence or greed but love and care.” And, like Ivan in Intermezzo, she is an optimist.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Orlaith Darling receives funding from the Irish Research Council.

    – ref. Sally Rooney’s new novel, Intermezzo, is her longest and best consideration of “idiotic desire and love” yet – https://theconversation.com/sally-rooneys-new-novel-intermezzo-is-her-longest-and-best-consideration-of-idiotic-desire-and-love-yet-239535

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Loneliness may not make you ill after all, says new study – but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t tackle it

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Louise Arseneault, Professor in Developmental Psychology at the Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology and Neuroscience, King’s College London

    Magdalena kluczny/Shutterstock

    When was the last time that you felt lonely? It’s an uncomfortable question, but for 3.83 million people in the UK, 7.1% of the population, the answer is probably “right now”.

    Loneliness has become a worrying public health matter because it is common and is often associated with people experiencing physical and mental health problems. There is now taxpayers’ money being spent at the local, national and international levels on initiatives to minimise loneliness and the harmful effect it can have on people’s health. But are those investments misjudged?

    New research from Guangzhou Medical University in China has challenged the notion that loneliness can cause ill health. Instead, the findings suggest that loneliness might be considered an associated feature for many diseases (a so-called “surrogate marker”) as it was shown to not be a root cause for poor physical and mental health.

    The researchers used data from the UK Biobank in which over half a million people aged 37 to 73 were asked to report how often they felt lonely. They conducted analyses based on the distribution of genetic variants in the population (known as “Mendelian randomisation”) to test the causal effect of loneliness on a wide range of diseases, including physical and mental health problems.

    This is certainly an interesting study; however, there are several points we must consider when reflecting on the findings. It is important to note that UK Biobank data isn’t the best for testing the causal effects of loneliness on health.

    Although many participants have taken part in UK Biobank, they are volunteers who tend to be white, older and have higher levels of education than the general population in the UK. Many of the participants also follow a healthier lifestyle than the population as a whole.

    Although loneliness doesn’t discriminate and can affect anyone, at all ages, and from all walks of life, this participation bias can influence the findings as it may conceal important associations.

    The study also captured a snapshot of loneliness from a single time in adulthood. We all experience loneliness from time to time, but its effect on health depends at what age a person feels lonely, why they feel lonely and for how long. This detail isn’t captured in this data.

    Some of our own research in this area shows that mental health difficulties and poor general functioning are often experienced alongside feelings of loneliness. However, our findings also show that loneliness in early adolescence can have long-lasting effects, especially related to education and employment prospects –– so-called “socioeconomic outcomes”.

    This study also measured loneliness in participants in their late 30s and older. Again, previous research has shown that loneliness can start early in life and is associated with later depression and poor socioeconomic outcomes, both of which are shown in this paper to be important factors associated with health.

    The ideal is to conduct analyses with data from studies that observe people from childhood to old age, and which have measured loneliness earlier in life and health in later life to best understand the links between loneliness and health.

    Also, this study used hospitalisation data to determine health outcomes. While this type of data is valuable, it captures information only from participants who seek treatment and represents the tip of the iceberg when it comes to diseases. Loneliness may affect health in more subtle ways that won’t be caught here.

    This is not to be over-critical of the study, however. The importance of depression and socioeconomic status as mechanisms through which loneliness translates into poor health is an essential message from this study. For example, loneliness may result in difficulties at work or worsening mental health, which could in turn increase a person’s risk of physical disease.



    Read more:
    The loneliness myth: what our shared stories of feeling alone reveal about why you can’t ‘fix’ this very human experience

    Identifying surrogate markers of poor health is also valuable as it opens the door to better and earlier ways to support vulnerable people. For example, someone may not feel comfortable revealing that they experience symptoms of depression, but they are fine with talking about their feelings of loneliness. Loneliness may act as a red flag in some circumstances. This is especially important when diseases are accompanied by stigma, such as many mental health conditions.

    Loneliness is intertwined with a range of health conditions throughout life and is considered both a contributing factor to and an outcome of poor health. This study acknowledges that.

    Loneliness has a complex relationship with health

    To measure the importance of loneliness for public health relevance solely as a causal factor oversimplifies its complex and intricate relationships with health. This is where further research using data that is representative of the general population is needed. It would allow researchers to unpick the pervasive role of loneliness in shaping health and wealth for all people.

    What this study cannot answer is an important question: should we continue to invest in initiatives designed to tackle loneliness as a means of improving population health? As ever, the answer is not a binary one.

    While this study may not report a causal relationship between loneliness and diseases, ample evidence indicates that it precedes, accompanies and results from poor health. Current strategies have proven to be limited in their effectiveness, particularly for people with lower incomes and less education.

    If we consider the occurrence of loneliness alongside mental health difficulties and low socioeconomic status, and a better understanding of the mechanisms that underpin loneliness, we might find these initiatives become more effective.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Loneliness may not make you ill after all, says new study – but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t tackle it – https://theconversation.com/loneliness-may-not-make-you-ill-after-all-says-new-study-but-that-doesnt-mean-we-shouldnt-tackle-it-239436

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ancient DNA helped us uncover the Iberian lynx’s potential secret weapon against extinction

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Johanna L.A. Paijmans, Postdoctoral research fellow in Zoology, University of Cambridge

    Many large mammals have lost genetic diversity, often thanks to the actions of people shrinking their populations. The implications can be severe because without genetic diversity, a population does not have a “genetic database” to fall back on to adapt to environmental change.

    The Iberian lynx (Lynx pardinus) is no stranger to this reduction in diversity. Human activity has driven populations to dangerously low numbers, leaving them with a shrinking genetic pool. This loss threatens the lynx’s ability to adapt to changing environments, putting their survival at risk.

    Our team’s research reveals how the Iberian lynx interbred with its cousin, the Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx) over the past few thousand years. This mingling may have boosted the Iberian lynx’s genetic diversity. This is a crucial factor for its survival, especially as the species faces such an uncertain future.

    Low genetic diversity can lead to “inbreeding depression”, where closely related animals breed and produce offspring that are less fit for survival. In extreme cases, this can push entire populations, or even species, to the brink of extinction.

    To boost the genetic diversity of populations on the brink, conservationists sometimes turn to “genetic rescue”. This involves introducing individuals from different populations in the hope that they will breed with the local animals, reducing inbreeding and enhancing genetic diversity.

    While this strategy can be effective, it’s not without risks. Introducing animals that are too genetically different can disrupt or dilute beneficial traits, potentially harming the population’s ability to survive and reproduce. It’s a phenomenon known as “outbreeding depression”. Despite these risks, genetic rescue remains a valuable tool in conservation, though it’s often approached with caution.

    One of the most severe cases of reduced genetic diversity is the Iberian lynx, once the world’s most threatened cat species. It’s mostly found in parts of Spain and Portugal.

    Rescue and recovery

    Today, the Iberian lynx is recovering from near extinction. More than 400 reproductive females were reported in the 2023 census. This is a massive increase from just 25 in 2002. This turnaround is largely thanks to an ambitious conservation programme over the past two decades, involving coordinated breeding programmes and reintroductions.

    Part of this success is due to the “genetic rescue” effect, where mixing the two remaining genetically distinct populations helped boost the species’ genetic diversity. Despite this progress, the Iberian lynx still faces significant challenges. The population is far from reaching the minimum of 1,100 reproductive females needed to be considered genetically viable. So, its genetic diversity remains one of the lowest ever recorded.

    Further genetic rescue could be a solution to enhance diversity. But there’s a catch – no other Iberian lynx populations exist in the world that could serve as a source of new genetic material.

    The Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx).
    Jaroslav Macenauer/Shutterstock

    Ancient DNA can be extracted from historical remains or subfossil (animals that are not ancient enough to be considered true fossils but are not considered modern either) samples. By studying these, scientists can gain valuable insights into the genetic past of species, offering a stark comparison with their present day counterparts.

    In 2015, our colleague Maria Lucena-Perez first visited the lab of another of our colleagues, Michael Hofreiter, in Germany to generate the very first whole genome data from ancient Iberian lynx bones. Extracting ancient DNA from bones is a highly specialised process that requires dedicated cleanroom facilities to prevent contamination from modern DNA.

    Working together, our team successfully extracted nuclear DNA from three ancient Iberian lynx specimens. Two of these were approximately 2,500 years old. The third dated back more than 4,000 years. This marked the first time nuclear DNA had ever been retrieved from ancient Iberian lynx. Maria’s achievement has significantly advanced our understanding of how the genetic makeup of the Iberian lynx has evolved over thousands of years.

    Our team analysed and compared the DNA with that of modern Iberian lynx. To our surprise, the ancient lynx showed even lower genetic diversity than their modern descendants. Given the sharp decline in their populations over the past few centuries, this finding was both unexpected and puzzling.

    Species interbreeding

    The missing piece of the puzzle came with the discovery that modern Iberian lynx populations share more genetic variants with the closely related Eurasian lynx than their ancient counterparts did. This suggests that the two species successfully interbred within the past 2,500 years, boosting the genetic diversity of today’s Iberian lynx.

    These findings align with extensive genomic evidence of ancient gene flow from Eurasian lynx into the Iberian lynx genome. While the two species don’t share the same habitats today, they once coexisted in the Iberian Peninsula, and possibly in southern France and northern Italy. This situation would have provided plenty of opportunities for interbreeding.

    The potential for these two species to naturally meet and breed is growing once more as their ranges continue to expand. This could open up new possibilities for genetic diversity in the future.

    The advent of whole nuclear genome analysis over the past 30 years has revealed numerous cases of cross-species interbreeding, such as between polar bears and brown bears. This suggests that the case of the lynx is not so unusual. But the Iberian lynx stands out as the first documented example where interspecies breeding significantly increased species-wide genetic diversity.

    We still don’t fully understand the exact effect of this genetic boost, particularly whether it improved the population’s fitness and survival. One intriguing possibility is that the Iberian lynx has managed to persist despite its extremely low genetic diversity, thanks to recurrent genetic rescues by the Eurasian lynx.

    While there’s more to learn, our research offers an unexpected but important case study for the broader discussion on genetic rescue. If we can better predict the chances of inbreeding and outbreeding depression when interbreeding happens, we could use genetic rescue more effectively as a conservation tool in the ongoing biodiversity crisis.

    Johanna L.A. Paijmans receives funding from Marie Skłodowska-Curie individual fellowship “RESOURCEFUL”.

    Axel Barlow receives funding from NERC, ERC.

    José A. Godoy receives funding from the Spanish Dirección General de
    Investigación Científica y Técnica through competitive research grants (projects CGL2013-47755-P, CGL2017-84641-P, PID2021-123358OB-I00) and from EU funded LIFE+ program (LIFE19 NAT/ES/001055 – LIFE LYNXCONNECT)

    – ref. Ancient DNA helped us uncover the Iberian lynx’s potential secret weapon against extinction – https://theconversation.com/ancient-dna-helped-us-uncover-the-iberian-lynxs-potential-secret-weapon-against-extinction-237076

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to archive your photos in the digital age

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Wasim Ahmad, Assistant Teaching Professor of Journalism, Quinnipiac University

    What’s the right choice for storing your photos? Wasim Ahmad, CC BY

    Taking photographs used to be a careful, conscious act. Photos were selective, frozen moments in time carefully archived in albums and frames. Now, taking a photograph is almost as effortless and common as breathing – it’s something that people do all the time in the age of smartphone cameras with seemingly endless digital film.

    But the downside to capturing every moment is that it creates a mountain of those moments to save for the future. Those photos can be easily lost if they’re not archived properly. All it can take is one accidental dip in the toilet for your phone, and all that data is lost forever.

    So what’s a practical backup strategy for the average person? Here are a few ways to make sure memories are never lost:

    Cloud storage

    The simplest way to archive your photos is cloud storage. For Apple users, there’s iCloud, which starts at US$0.99 per month for 50 gigabytes all the way to $59.99 per month for 12 terabytes with various tiers in between. With an average iPhone photo clocking in at 3 megabytes, that’s a little over 16,000 photos for the cheap plan and 4 million or so for the largest plan. Google’s Google One cloud storage is most cost effective for yearly plans, with 2TB going for $99.99 per year and 5TB going for $249.99 per year.

    The actual amount you can store in that space does vary greatly with how a file is shot. Video has larger file sizes than photos. HEIF files, a newer format on Apple phones, compresses files into smaller packages, but long-term compatibility is unknown since the format hasn’t been in use for as long as the standard JPG file, which has been around since 1992.

    Storing your photos in a cloud service like iCloud is probably the easiest method.
    Chris Messina/Flickr, CC BY-NC

    While cloud services from big providers generally provide the easiest way for most average folks to back up their photos, and operate with little to no intervention via apps that are already on the phone constantly uploading every photo taken, there are risks involved.

    Big companies often change their policies about how photos are saved. For instance, depending on what phone and when it was bought, Google’s cloud storage may have saved photos in a “storage saver” format that lowers the quality of images by sizing them down or compressing them differently. This affects your ability to make high-quality prints or view the photos on high-resolution screens down the road. Unless someone is astute enough to notice small text here and there that mentions it, most users won’t even realize it’s happening.

    And what happens to cloud services when things go badly wrong? Users of photo backup service Digital Railroad found out the hard way. In 2008, the company abruptly shut down and gave its users 24 hours to download everything before the servers were shut down. Photographers rushed for the exits, trying to grab their photos on the way out, only to strain the servers to the point where few were able to recover anything at all. If this was the only way photos were backed up, it’s a lost cause.

    So while the cloud is easy, costs can add up and terms of service can change at a moment’s notice. What are some ways for photographers to control their own fate?

    Hard drives and network-attached storage

    Manually taking photos off a phone may take some extra time, but the approach offers peace of mind that cloud services can’t necessarily match.

    Almost all phones can plug into a computer’s USB port and use the built-in photos app on both Windows or MacOS to download photos to a computer. Apple users can use a method called AirDrop to send photos wirelessly to other Apple devices as well, including laptop and desktop computers.

    Now loading photos onto a local hard drive built into the machine can fill it up quickly, but there is a cost-effective way to get around that – namely, external hard drives. Theses are storage devices that you can plug into your computer as needed. They can be of the older and less expensive type with spinning platters or more modern solid-state drives that can survive a drop and greater temperature changes than the older drives can.

    These are different than flash drives, more commonly known as thumb drives because of their small size, that are designed as temporary storage to shuffle photos from one place to another.

    It’s easy to buy more than one hard drive to have duplicate backups in case of failure or catastrophe, but the downside is that there’s no easy access from the internet to your photos, and backup is generally a process that users must remember to do.

    Network-attached storage is one way to solve the cloud storage problem while retaining the ability to access photos from the internet. These are essentially hard drives – sometimes multiple hard drives linked together for even greater or faster storage – that are connected to a router that allows for access to the internet through specialized software.

    While not as easy as most third-party cloud storage services, once it’s set up, a network-attached storage unit is a flexible way to store your photos safely and accessibly. There are even companies that specialize in fireproof and waterproof units for extra insurance in case of disaster.

    Printing photos

    If cloud storage and hard drives seem too complicated, there’s always the old-fashioned approach of printing. There’s still something magical about seeing a photo on a wall or in an album, and thankfully there are ways to print professional-quality archival prints without having to go to a drugstore.

    Desktop photo printers are a way to bring those digital photos into the physical world, ready for organizing in photo albums.
    Leksey/Wikimedia

    The easiest and most cost-efficient types of printers are dedicated 4×6 printers using a technology similar to professional labs called dye-sublimation. These yield high-quality, waterproof prints that cost about the same as what one would pay for drugstore developing. HP makes its popular Sprocket line of printers, though those require a phone and an app to print from, which makes plugging in a memory card from a professional camera out of the question. However, Canon’s Selphy lineup includes many models with screens and a card slot to make that possible.

    The rabbit hole goes very deep, and there are many professional printers that can print even larger sizes. Canon and Epson dominate this space, marketing a range of pigment- and dye-based printers that can emphasize archival needs or color saturation, respectively.

    Another option is ordering a photo book, which, as the name suggests, is a physical bound book of your photos. However, photo books are probably more appropriate for memorializing an event – trip, wedding, project – than general archiving, given the typical costs and number of photos involved.

    There’s little reason to not make some sort of backups of photos in 2024, whether that’s on printed media, hard drives or in the cloud. The important thing is not which method to use, but to do it at all.

    Wasim Ahmad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How to archive your photos in the digital age – https://theconversation.com/how-to-archive-your-photos-in-the-digital-age-239175

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Parents with disabilities have faced discrimination for years in the US, but new rules will help ensure that child welfare systems treat them more fairly

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Elizabeth Lightfoot, Distinguished Professor of Social Policy, School of Social Work, Arizona State University

    Parents with disabilities have new legal protections. Westend61/Getty Images

    Parents with any kind of disability are much more likely to have some type of interaction with the child welfare system than other parents. This means they are more likely than other parents to be reported for child abuse and neglect and more likely to have abuse or neglect substantiated by child welfare workers. They are also more likely to have their children placed in foster care and more likely to permanently lose their parental rights.

    More than one-third of mothers with intellectual and developmental disabilities have an interaction with the child welfare system within four years of their child’s birth, and about one-fifth of all children in foster care have a parent with some type of disability.

    However, there is little evidence that parents with disabilities abuse or neglect their children at higher rates than anyone else. Instead, there’s evidence that many young adults raised by a parent with a disability have very positive childhood experiences.

    New rules that went into effect in July 2024 provide the first federal protections specifically for parents with disabilities. These new rules ban discrimination against parents and caregivers with disabilities throughout the child welfare system.

    Government is changing these rules

    I’m a social work policy researcher who has studied policies affecting parents with disabilities since 2007.

    In 2010, I found that three-quarters of states had laws which said that a parent’s disability could be used as the grounds for terminating their parental rights. Most of these state laws focused on parents with intellectual and developmental disabilities or mental health disabilities, though some listed physical disabilities and other types as well.

    Many of these laws were vague and used outdated language such as “mental deficiency.”

    Parental disability is the only grounds for termination of parental rights that focuses on a condition of the parent. The rest focus on behaviors. For example, parental poverty is not listed as grounds for termination of parental rights in any state, but neglect – a behavior – is.

    State laws were only one of the issues parents with disabilities encountered related to child protection. For years, there had been confusion as to how the Americans with Disabilities Act, the federal law banning disability discrimination, applied to parents in the child welfare system. Until 2015, most state courts denied ADA claims by parents with disabilities who believed they were discriminated against.

    In addition, most child welfare workers do not receive formal training on working with parents with disabilities. They are not trained in how to assess parenting skills or how to make accommodations to services that they typically provide, such as providing in-home parent training or conveying information in plain language. They might not know about the overwhelming evidence that parents with intellectual disabilities can learn parenting skills.

    This has historically led many child welfare workers to make decisions based on stereotypes or speculation.

    One of the main biases that parents with disabilities face is the “presumption of unfitness bias.” This is a widespread bias that parents are unable to parent solely because of their disability.

    This bias can lead child welfare workers to not consider that parents with disabilities can rely on “parental supports” to assist them in parenting, ranging from adaptive cribs and baby monitors to in-home helpers. It also can result in parents with disabilities being held to a higher standard than others.

    State laws specifically naming parental disability as a for termination of parental rights, the lack of federal protection, and widespread biases left parents with disabilities vulnerable in encounters with the child welfare system.

    Gaining national attention

    Two federal actions in the early 2010s brought national attention to parents with disabilities.

    First, the National Council on Disability, the independent federal agency that advises the federal government on disability issues, released a report in 2012 called Rocking the Cradle. That report focused on the widespread discrimination faced by parents with disabilities; highlighted and called for changing the state child protection laws; and called for the application of ADA protections in child welfare cases involving parents with disabilities.

    This report received a lot of media attention and led to more awareness of the plight of these parents.

    Then, in 2015, Justice Department and the Department of Health and Human Services released guidance directing child welfare agencies to protect parents with disabilities from discrimination. This was the first federal action indicating that the ADA and Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act applied to child protection services.

    This guidance followed the departments’ investigation of the Massachusetts Department of Children and Families’ removal of a newborn baby from Sara Gordon, a new mother with a developmental disability, in 2012. The Department of Justice and the Department of Health and Human Services found that the state agency had made assumptions that Gordon was unable to take care of her child and unable to learn parenting skills. The state agency had also failed to take into account that Gordon had support systems in place. She lived with her parents, and her mother had quit her job to assist with parenting.

    Making progress for parents with disabilities

    The momentum for protecting parental rights has led to some positive changes.

    A few states changed their own child protection laws to address some of these problems before the federal government took action by providing new protections for parents with disabilities. In addition, the Department of Justice and Department of Health and Human Services have reached agreements with state agencies in Oregon, Georgia and Massachusetts related to discrimination against parents with disabilities.

    Despite this progress, parents with disabilities are still discriminated against by the child welfare system in many parts of the country.

    At the same time, I have no doubt that the federal government’s revision of the rules of Section 504 of the Rehabilitation Act is a major step forward for parents with disabilities.

    In particular, it is promising that Section  84.60 of the rule clarifies that disability discrimination is not allowed in any part of the child welfare process. Child welfare agencies throughout the United States now must ensure that they are not making decisions based on speculation, stereotypes or generalizations.

    Thanks to changes in the federal rule, when a child welfare agency evaluates how a child is being parented, the tools it uses must be backed by research. The evaluations must be conducted by a qualified professional and tailored to the needs of the individual parent. Agencies must ensure that parents with disabilities can participate in any services they provide. These services include parent-child visitation, parenting skills programs, family reunification services and child placements in foster care settings or in the care of another relative.

    Disability advocacy groups applauded this new rule when it went into effect in the summer of 2024.

    I believe these new rules will protect parents with disabilities when interacting with child protection authorities. They will also make it easier for child welfare agencies and state courts to recognize disability discrimination when it appears in their caseloads or on their dockets.

    Elizabeth Lightfoot receives funding from the National Institute on Disability, Independent Living, and Rehabilitation Research and the Arizona Developmental Disabilities Planning Council.

    – ref. Parents with disabilities have faced discrimination for years in the US, but new rules will help ensure that child welfare systems treat them more fairly – https://theconversation.com/parents-with-disabilities-have-faced-discrimination-for-years-in-the-us-but-new-rules-will-help-ensure-that-child-welfare-systems-treat-them-more-fairly-238185

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Egypt’s fears about Ethiopia’s mega-dam haven’t come to pass: moving on from historical concerns would benefit the whole region

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Mike Muller, Visiting Adjunct Professor, School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand

    A new round of angry exchanges has broken out between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).

    On September 1, Cairo wrote to the UN security council to protest against Ethiopia’s continued filling of Africa’s second largest reservoir and bringing two more power generating turbines into operation. Egypt sees any new infrastructure development on the Nile as a potential threat, since the river is the source of over 98% of the country’s water.

    Egypt calls this a violation of international law and Ethiopia’s obligations to “prevent significant harm”. Ethiopia’s policies, it says,

    could result in an existential threat to Egypt … and would consequently jeopardise regional and international peace and security.

    Ethiopia has told Egypt to “abandon its aggressive approach” towards the dam. Ethiopia says that it must allow the Blue Nile’s water to flow through the dam’s turbines and on to Egypt to generate the hydropower for which it has been built, thus guaranteeing the overall flow to Egypt.

    I have tracked the Nile disputes since the 1970s, first as a development journalist, then as a civil engineer and senior public servant. More recently, my research on water and regional integration for regional development agencies has provided further insights. My 2021 study considered the lessons to be learnt for today’s water challenges from centuries of the use and management of Nile waters.



    Read more:
    Innovations on the Nile over millennia offer lessons in engineering sustainable futures

    Ongoing tension between Egypt and Ethiopia over control of the Nile River has a long history. Therefore, in one sense, the row between Egypt and Ethiopia is nothing new.

    The countries went to war as far back as 1874, even as they both were also battling European colonialism. Ethiopia won the war of 1874 and, 20 years later, beat back Italy’s attempt to colonise it, at the battle of Adwa.

    However, Egypt gained long term advantage from treaties negotiated by the British, which gave Cairo almost total control over the Nile. Egypt is still asserting the rights and privileges conferred by those colonial era treaties even though they are being challenged by other Nile countries. In my view, this is because Egyptians are still trapped by their past fears. As Norwegian professor Torje Tvedt has explained, these fears were deliberately entrenched by past colonial authorities.

    With these perspectives, my view is that the current controversy over the Ethiopian dam still reflects historical conflicts rather than a careful analysis of present challenges.

    Now 90% complete, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has begun to generate electricity. A series of good rainy seasons have allowed the reservoir to start filling rapidly without affecting Egypt’s water availability.

    The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam offers not just cheap green electricity for Ethiopia and the sub-region as well as reliable irrigation supplies and flood control for Sudan. Once filled, its storage could offer supply security and increase the amount of water available for Egypt as well.

    The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

    What, then, are the issues that have prompted Egypt’s recent protests and what are the possible solutions to the problems raised?

    The immediate technical challenge is to continue filling the dam without disrupting flows to Sudan and Egypt. The filling process might have to be interrupted if there is a regional drought. So recent developments, notably the greater focus on the rate at which the dam will be filled rather than the legality of its construction, suggest that there is a shift in positions which neither side is yet willing to acknowledge publicly.

    This shift will be supported when other future-focused issues are raised. For instance, there must be negotiations about the supply of electricity to support Sudan’s irrigation expansion, although this is on hold due to the war in Sudan. In the longer term, Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia could cooperate to use the GERD’s storage to help Egypt to manage its Aswan High Dam more efficiently. Aswan currently suffers very high evaporation losses, which could be reduced if its reservoir levels were better controlled. The GERD could help to do this.

    Unfortunately, the history of colonial Britain repeatedly threatening to cut Egypt’s Nile water supplies has been deeply imprinted in Egyptian public consciousness. It is understandable that Egyptians still fear a similar threat from Ethiopia. The responsibility now falls on Ethiopia to show good faith in its operation of the dam and to work with Egypt to change the combative discourse.

    Potential for cooperation

    Egypt’s repeated complaints have alerted Ethiopia and international organisations of the need to act carefully. If there is another regional drought, Ethiopia will need to slow the rate at which it completes filling its dam. Informal liaison structures are monitoring the situation and such a response would help to build a more constructive engagement with Egypt.

    Water is a patient teacher. Every season provides an opportunity for those who live with its natural cycles to understand it better. The hope is that, if the three countries experience the benefits of some seasons of the dam’s operation, the natural cycle will reveal the potential for cooperation and mitigate the conflict.



    Read more:
    Sudan’s catastrophe: farmers could offer quick post-war recovery, if peace is found

    When peace returns to Sudan, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will enable a vast expansion of irrigation to develop its role as a regional breadbasket. The dam will also help to manage Nile floods which regularly cause death and destruction, even to Sudan’s capital, Khartoum.

    Efforts to promote cooperation between the East African countries that share the White Nile have been relatively successful. However, such cooperation on the Blue Nile will need much greater trust between the parties. To achieve this trust, the countries and their people will have to overcome centuries of cultural and political preconceptions. This will require much patient work and interaction, which is not easy in the current climate.

    Mike Muller has received funding from the African Development Bank and South Africa’s Water Research Comission for work on regional cooperation in water resource management. He has been a member of the Global Water Partnership’s Technical Committee, chaired the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Water and been funded by the World Bank’s Cooperation in International Waters (CIWA) programme for contributions to the Nile Basin Initiative. He was also funded by UNESCO to attend a conference in Khartoum, organised with Sudan’s Ministry of Water Resources Irrigation and Electricity, on integrated and sustainable water management.

    – ref. Egypt’s fears about Ethiopia’s mega-dam haven’t come to pass: moving on from historical concerns would benefit the whole region – https://theconversation.com/egypts-fears-about-ethiopias-mega-dam-havent-come-to-pass-moving-on-from-historical-concerns-would-benefit-the-whole-region-239418

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Did Romans really fight rhinos? Sports historian explains the truth behind the battle scenes in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Wray Vamplew, Emeritus Professor of Sport, University of Stirling

    In the trailer for Ridley Scott’s hotly anticipated sequel to Gladiator (2000), a new gladiator (played by Paul Mescal) goes to battle in “the greatest temple Rome ever built – the Colosseum”.

    He comes up against naval warfare, a cutthroat promoter (Denzel Washington) and a stampeding rhino. But how much of this really took place in Roman times? As always with films based in the past, pedantic historians will jump in to assess the degree of cinematic licence and historical misinterpretation. So it is with the forthcoming Gladiator II.

    The trailer for Gladiator II.

    Did gladiators fight rhinos?

    One thing that certainly did not happen was a warrior mounted on a rhinoceros (even a non-computer-generated one) charging at a group of gladiators. However, there is a record of a rhino at the inauguration of the Colosseum in 80BC. It didn’t fight men, but a bull, bear, buffalo, bison, lion and two steers. The other rare mentions of rhinos in Rome are of those in menageries, to be admired as exotic creatures.

    This Roman interest in foreign, wild animals was the basis of the initial beast spectacles which began in 275BC with an exhibition of captured war elephants. Such non-violent displays of animals continued into the imperial era, but in 186BC the first staged animal hunt (venatio), featuring both lions and leopards, took place and by 169BC beast hunts had become an official part of republican state festivals.

    Later, under the emperors, collecting and transporting beasts, especially unusual and foreign ones, to be displayed – but more often killed – demonstrated imperial power, territorial control and the vastness of the empire. Thousands of animals were brought from Africa and elsewhere to Roman arenas to be slaughtered for entertainment and the meat from the dead animals was given away to the spectators (it was easier than trying to dispose of the many carcasses).

    A 5th-century mosaic showing two gladiators fighting a tiger.
    Great Palace of Constantinople, CC BY

    Those who fought the beasts were not gladiators but specially trained hunters (venatores) armed with spears. The venatio could also feature fights between animals, as with the Colosseum rhinoceros, but most often the contest consisted of bulls against an elephant or bear. Animal hunts outlasted gladiatorial combats as a source of spectator entertainment, but as both the size of the empire and imperial funds diminished, greater reliance was placed on domestically reared “wild” animals.

    Were there sea battles in the Colosseum?

    More credence in historical terms can be given to the film’s staged sea battle (naumachia) in the flooded Colosseum. Such spectacles were expensive to stage and were reserved for special occasions.

    The first one recorded was for Emperor Augustus in 2BC. Held on an artificial lake, it featured 30 large ships carrying some 3,000 marines plus an unspecified number of rowers. Participants in a naumachia, typically either convicted criminals or prisoners of war, were expected to kill each other or drown, though, the demonstration of fighting ability and courage could gain them a pardon.

    The Naumachia by Ulpiano Checa (1894) imagines naval warfare in the Coliseum.
    Museo Ulpiano Checa

    The grandest sea battle was provided by Emperor Claudius on Lake Fucinus, a spectacle involving 100 ships and some 19,000 marines and oarsmen. It was at this event that the fighting men reportedly said “hail, emperor, we who are about to die salute you”, mistakenly assigned to gladiators in so many films, including the first Gladiator.

    Literary sources (not always to be trusted in antiquity as they were often written well after alleged events) claim that the Colosseum was flooded for a sea battle at its inauguration. After some debate, historians now accept that the engineering mechanisms were in place so that, at least in its early days, the Colosseum could have accommodated a naumachia.

    Did a thumbs down really mean death for a gladiator?

    Gladiator II also showcases the misconstrued sporting legacy of the thumbs up signal to spare a defeated gladiator who requested mercy or the converse of a thumbs down from those who wished him to die.

    The arena was a large, noisy place and hand signals were often used as a means of communication. Indeed, rather than verbally requesting mercy, the defeated warrior himself would raise the index finger of his right hand, or even the hand itself, both of which were recognised pleas for clemency.

    Pollice Verso (Thumbs Down) by Jean-Léon Gérôme, (1872).
    Phoenix Art Museum, CC BY

    When the crowd opted for the death of a fighter they indicated this by means of pollice verso, literally a turned thumb, with no direction specified. When the hand was waved the sign indicated that the gladiator’s throat should be cut by his conqueror. Those who wished to save the vanquished, but courageous, fighter gave the sign pollice compresso, a compressed thumb but one often hidden from sight so as not to cause visual confusion.

    Gladiators were valuable assets. Promoters, who had paid a hiring fee (typically 10-20% of their value) for them to fight, were reluctant to incur the full asset value demanded as compensation should they die. Especially when, at the crowd’s insistence, they could have a choice in the matter.

    In many instances the event had been promoted to curry favour with the spectators so to go against their wishes would be counterproductive. However, whether the ultimate decision-maker gave a thumbs up or thumbs down is debatable. The idea that this occurred seems to have developed around 1872 with the popularity of a painting by French artist, Jean-Léon Gérôme. In it he depicts vestal virgins giving the dreaded sign. Although titled Pollice Verso, it became conventionally referred to as “the thumbs down painting”.


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    Wray Vamplew does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Did Romans really fight rhinos? Sports historian explains the truth behind the battle scenes in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II – https://theconversation.com/did-romans-really-fight-rhinos-sports-historian-explains-the-truth-behind-the-battle-scenes-in-ridley-scotts-gladiator-ii-235255

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A brief history of former presidents running for reelection: 3 losses, 1 win and 1 still TBD

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Graeme Mack, Visiting Assistant Professor of History, University of Richmond

    Theodore Roosevelt speaks during the Progressive campaign of 1912. AP Photo

    This year’s presidential election has a former president, Donald Trump, running for a nonconsecutive term. It’s the fifth time in U.S. history that’s happened.

    Historically, a former president running for a nonconsecutive term has prompted voters to change their party allegiances.

    In 1848, Martin Van Buren, a former Democratic president, ran as a candidate for the newly formed Free Soil Party and attracted many Northern Democrats who had grown disillusioned with their party’s pro-slavery stance. The Free Soil Party outperformed Democrats in three Northern states and enabled the other major party, the Whigs, to win the presidency.

    And in 1856, former Whig President Millard Fillmore headed the newly formed American Party, otherwise known as the Know-Nothing party. When faced with a choice between two candidates, Fillmore and Democrat James Buchanan, who both seemed deeply complicit with slavery’s expansion, many Northerners voted for the new antislavery Republican Party.

    Fillmore’s candidacy in 1856 made a Republican sweep of the North virtually impossible, ensuring victory for Buchanan, who only won 45% of the popular vote.

    Theodore Roosevelt’s run in 1912 also saw dramatic changes in voter behavior. With the former president on the ballot, millions of voters cast ballots for the other major party or a brand new party.

    By this time, Roosevelt had become one of the most famous men in the world. Reformers praised his ability to attract attention and build support for progressive causes.

    These characteristics repulsed conservative Republicans and traditional Democrats who feared Roosevelt’s return to power.

    After failing to secure the Republican nomination, Roosevelt headed the newly formed Progressive Party, winning six states and 88 electoral votes, the strongest showing for a third party candidate ever.

    However, the split in the Republican ranks enabled Democrats to win by an electoral landslide.

    One former president ran for a nonconsecutive second term and won: Grover Cleveland, whose two terms ran from 1885-1889 and 1893-1897.

    The rise of progressivism

    When Roosevelt ran in 1912, he saw a society convulsed by rapid change.

    Between 1870 and 1900, the population of the United States rose from roughly 38 million to more than 76 million.

    During this time, business transformed from small-scale manufacturing and local trade to huge corporations and factory-based manufacturing.

    From 1900 to 1915, another 15 million immigrants settled in American cities.

    A political reform movement known as progressivism emerged across political parties. It sought to address problems with immigration, urbanization, political corruption, industrialization and the concentration of corporate power.

    Roosevelt’s political career tapped into progressivism’s growing momentum. First elected vice president as a Republican in 1900, he assumed the presidency in September 1901 after the assassination of President William McKinley.

    Campaigning on his progressive “Square Deal” — focused on consumer protections, control of large corporations and conservation of natural resources — in 1904, the popular incumbent won reelection in the largest electoral landslide the country had seen.

    But in 1908, Roosevelt declined to run for a third term. Instead, he advocated successfully for William Howard Taft, his secretary of war.

    However, as Taft’s presidency took shape, Roosevelt grew dissatisfied with him. What most frustrated Roosevelt was Taft’s refusal to use executive power to advance progressive goals.

    Seeing an urgent need for forceful presidential leadership, Roosevelt challenged Taft for the Republican nomination in 1912.

    A political cartoon from 1912 illustrating Theodore Roosevelt’s dissatisfaction with how President William Howard Taft carried out his policies.
    Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division

    At the Republican National Convention, however, party leaders rejected Roosevelt and confirmed Taft’s nomination. Roosevelt’s supporters stormed out, complaining that leaders had manipulated rules and procedures to block the former president.

    Despite his loss of the nomination, Roosevelt assured his supporters that he felt as “strong as a Bull Moose” and expressed interest in “bolting” from the Republican Party.

    Roosevelt’s threat to leave his party was echoed more than 100 years later by another former president running for a nonconsecutive term. In late 2023, Trump refused to participate in the Republican presidential primary debates and refused to rule out the possibility of running as an independent.

    In doing so, Trump’s candidacy hampered efforts to seek an alternative candidate. It also disregarded opportunities to win over skeptical Republicans.

    The rise of the Bull Moose Party

    In a matter of weeks after Roosevelt failed to get the Republican nomination, the Progressive Party, popularly known as the Bull Moose Party, held its national convention and nominated Roosevelt as its first presidential candidate.

    His presidential campaign did not lack for energy or spectacle. In October 1912, the former president delivered a one-hour speech immediately after being shot in an assassination attempt.

    He told his supporters, “It takes more than that to kill a Bull Moose.”

    Theodore Roosevelt arrives at a hospital after New York saloon keeper John F. Schrank attempted to assassinate him in Milwaukee in 1912.
    Harlingue/Roger Viollet via Getty Images

    Like the recent assassination attempts on Trump, this attack drew condemnation and galvanized the former president’s core supporters.

    Roosevelt faced off on Election Day against the Republican incumbent, William Howard Taft; Eugene V. Debs, the Socialist Party candidate; and the Democratic candidate, Woodrow Wilson.

    Many Republicans cast their ballots for Wilson, seeing his candidacy as more viable than Roosevelt’s. Some did so out of disgust for what they saw as Roosevelt’s egotistical and radical campaign.

    The split in the Republican Party created an opportunity for Democrats, who had been shut out of the presidency for decades.

    The legacy of 1912

    On election day, Democrat Wilson won 40 states and earned 435 electoral votes. Democrats also won the House and Senate for the first time since 1892.

    However, Wilson prevailed with less than 42% of the national vote, the smallest share won by a president since Abraham Lincoln’s 1860 election.

    A unified Republican ticket would very likely have prevailed in 1912.

    Taft blamed Roosevelt for 1 million Republicans voting for the Democratic ticket to stave off a Progressive win.

    Historical parallels are never perfect. However, the 1912 election invites some comparison, as one of the world’s most famous men runs for the third time for the presidency.

    The 2024 election will be close. Wary of Trump’s return to power, will disillusioned Republicans vote for Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris, choose a third-party candidate, or sit out the election?

    Graeme Mack does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A brief history of former presidents running for reelection: 3 losses, 1 win and 1 still TBD – https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-former-presidents-running-for-reelection-3-losses-1-win-and-1-still-tbd-234959

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –