Category: Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: Author David Robie tells of outrage over sinking of the Rainbow Warrior 40 years ago

    RNZ News Nights

    Tomorrow marks 40 years since the bombing and sinking of the Rainbow Warrior — a moment that changed the course of New Zealand’s history and reshaped how we saw ourselves on the world stage.

    Two French agents planted two explosives on the ship, then just before midnight, explosions ripped through the hull killing photographer, Fernando Pereira and sinking the 47m ex-fishing trawler.

    The attack sparked outrage across the country and the world, straining diplomatic ties between New Zealand and France and cementing the country’s anti-nuclear stance.

    Few people are more closely linked to the ship than author and journalist Dr David Robie, who spent eleven weeks on board during its final voyage through the Pacific, and wrote the book, Eyes of Fire: The Last Voyage and Legacy of the Rainbow Warrior, which is being published tomorrow. He joins Emile Donovan.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Not just a few bad apples: The Canadian Armed Forces has a nagging far-right problem

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stéphane Leman-Langlois, Professor, School of Social Work and Criminology, Université Laval

    The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is making headlines. But not, as they probably hoped, for the renewed recruiting efforts they’re about to launch. Instead, they are once again confounded by a far-right scandal.

    The latest episode is the arrest of four CAF members and ex-members. Three of them have been charged with taking concrete steps to facilitate terrorist activity and possessing prohibited firearms. A fourth man was charged with possession and storage of prohibited firearms and devices.

    The crew had allegedly been under surveillance by the federal government’s Integrated National Security Enforcement Team since 2021, most likely when equipment, weapons and ammunition began to go missing from military installations. The weapons were finally seized in January 2024, some in the personal vehicle of one of the suspects, but the group remained free for another 18 months.




    Read more:
    Charges against Canadian Army members in anti-government terror plot raise alarms about right-wing extremism


    As is usual with these types of efforts, a certain degree of amateurism was present at multiple stages of the alleged scheme, which may have developed on the fly. The idea that a micro-militia might successfully seize and hold territory in Canada is far-fetched at best.

    Recruitment efforts for the suspected mission, complete with propaganda and self-aggrandizing pictures of military training, took place on, you guessed it: Instagram. (We won’t publish the name of the account.)

    It might be pointed out that any large organization like the CAF inevitably represents a microcosm of society, meaning that it can’t be expected to be free of various forms of undesirable behaviour, including political extremism. But this “rotten apple” theory of far-right extremism in the CAF falls somewhat short of explaining the situation.

    Not just a ‘few rotten apples’

    First, the rotten apples seem too numerous. Just days before the recent arrests, the CAF announced on July 3 it was investigating the participation of other soldiers in a private Facebook page named the “Blue Hackle Mafia.” The page disseminated openly racist, homophobic, misogynist and antisemitic content.

    These events point to a phenomenon difficult to measure within western countries, even though it’s very real. The penetration of ideas associated with the far right within the military and law enforcement agencies is currently happening. Whether more or less structured, the emergence of underground small groups are more or less ready to “take action.”

    Second, previous reports have identified a general laissez-faire approach within the CAF regarding far-right activities. In a 2022 independent report commissioned by the CAF, the presence of white supremacist and other far-right ideologies was identified not only as a growing problem for the Army, but also one that was not being addressed.

    Similar conclusions were reached in the 1997 report on the behaviour of Canadian soldiers in Somalia, which had explicitly recommended that “the Canadian Forces establish regular liaison with anti-racist groups to obtain assistance in the conduct of appropriate cultural sensitivity training and to assist supervisors and commanders in identifying signs of racism and involvement with hate groups.” In other words, neither the concern nor the awareness is news.

    Affinity between far right and military

    At the root of the problem is a peculiar affinity between most forms of far-right ideologies and military or paramilitary/policing organizations.

    It’s absurd to simply paint such organizations as inherently far right in their nature, of course. But strict authority structures and notions of defence, fellowship, honour — as well as the projection of power through physical strength and training and the accompanying symbolism of weapons, fatigues, uniforms and campaign-like deployments — are all very appealing to far-right extremists.

    This nexus has been amply documented and leads to multiple practical implications: extremist groups trying to recruit active or retired soldiers; soldiers joining existing groups or setting up their own; veterans joining existing groups or creating their own, like the founders of Québec’s La Meute; professionally trained lone wolves, like Correy Hurren, who attempted to “arrest” Prime minister Justin Trudeau at Rideau Hall in 2020)

    Members of extremist groups also routinely try to join the military to benefit from training, which elevates their standing within the group.

    Military, former and active, and law enforcement members are to be found in multiple “militia” groups like the Three Percenters, the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, Diagolon and the Boogaloo movement, for instance. Some are overtly anti-government and/or anti-system, like the Veterans 4 Freedom or The Base.

    Far-right demons

    It may sound strange to think of military personnel or veterans getting involved or creating an anti-government movement when they’ve served under the flag sometimes for decades. The apparent paradox quickly disappears once we understand the manifold individual motivations that underpin their actions.

    They range from the feeling of having served a timourous government that failed to make proper use of the Armed Forces at its disposal. The absence of deployments to theatres of conflict also generates frustration among some in search of military adventure.

    A lot of young men are quickly bored with exercises that never satisfy their expeditionary spirit. The role of camaraderie, of group dynamics based on mutual aid, honour and the presence of danger, as well as mental health issues, must not be overlooked. Not to mention the idea, strong in some units, of defending a singular idea of a “fatherland” endangered by government contempt and inaction.

    What is striking in the light of the recent charges in Québec is not so much the racist and anti-semitic ideological ideas allegedly held by the accused group members. It’s the primacy given to a patriarchal ideology that explicitly targets women and gender. Fascination with Russia and the war in Ukraine waged by Vladimir Putin is also palpable.

    In short, the CAF is still wrestling with far-right demons, though in a new context of social media acceleration and global loss of confidence in democratic institutions. The situation has a high potential to undermine confidence in Canada’s Armed Forces at a time when geopolitical tensions are calling for a strengthening of its military arsenal, and first and foremost, our military human capital.

    Stéphane Leman-Langlois receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Samuel Tanner receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Aurélie Campana does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Not just a few bad apples: The Canadian Armed Forces has a nagging far-right problem – https://theconversation.com/not-just-a-few-bad-apples-the-canadian-armed-forces-has-a-nagging-far-right-problem-260896

    MIL OSI Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Want more orgasms? Choose a woman partner

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Caroline Pukall, Professor, Department of Psychology, Queen’s University, Ontario

    Being partnered with a woman is associated with an orgasm advantage. (Pexels/Cottonbro)

    The orgasm gap — the consistent finding that men who have sex with women have more frequent orgasms than women who have sex with men — has been shown in study after study of cisgender, heterosexual participants.

    The gap is a big one: Based on a recent Canadian study, approximately 60 per cent of women and 90 per cent of men reported reaching orgasm in their most recent sexual encounter.

    In sexually diverse samples (samples that also include women who have sex with women and men who have sex with men), the pattern becomes more nuanced but still supports a gendered orgasm gap.

    Research has shown that women who have sex with women have a more equal frequency of orgasms within their partnership.
    (Pexels/Ketut Subiyanto)

    Research has shown that the gap in orgasm frequency is reduced (in other words, there is more equal orgasm frequency) in women who have sex with women (about 75 per cent), and this rate is significantly higher than in women who have sex with men (about 62 per cent). However, men as a group — regardless of who they were having sex with — still had significantly higher orgasm frequency (85 per cent) than women overall (63 per cent). Women are orgasm-disadvantaged overall and especially when they have sex with men.

    Mind the gap

    How far-reaching is the orgasm gap and what factors might be standing in the way of orgasms for all? We — a team of researchers and science journalists from the podcast Science Vsexamined orgasm frequency in a large diverse sample that included sexual (such as lesbian) and gender (such as trans) minorities and majorities, as well as racialized participants (there were no significant results with analyses focused on sexual orientation or race).

    The good news? We found that many people overall were having lots of orgasms — about two-thirds reported having orgasms almost or every time they engaged sexually.

    The not-so-great news? The orgasm gap persisted: cis men overall reported the highest orgasm frequency compared to women and gender minorities (who did not differ significantly from each other). In addition, we found that participants of all genders who engaged sexually with women reported significantly more frequent orgasms than those who engaged sexually with men. So being partnered with a woman is associated with an orgasm advantage.

    More not-so-great news was that about 17 per cent of participants reported almost never or never having orgasms during sex and that there were many factors preventing orgasms in participants. For cis women, psychological barriers — such as insecurities, mental health struggles and distractions — were prominent, as were sexual obstacles (like not receiving adequate stimulation), difficulties inherent in having orgasms (for example, they take too long and require too much effort) and not knowing why orgasms are difficult for them to have.

    Closing the gap

    So why does the orgasm gap exist and persist? One main reason is that broad sociocultural norms prioritize men’s sexual pleasure over women’s. Indeed, these norms develop from the traditional (heterosexual, western) sexual script that defines the end of sexual activity as male orgasm; importantly, women’s adherence to this script has been associated with lower sexual satisfaction.

    Women’s own degree of familiarity with their partner has also been shown to be critical in narrowing the gap.
    (Unsplash/Jonathan Borba)

    Another is that mainstream media feeds into narratives of sexual expectations based on gender, such that portrayals of women who do not have orgasms are much more — even readily — acceptable than portrayals of orgasmless men. This inequality is played out in sexual encounters, perpetuating the gap and contributing to complacency in addressing it.

    But there is hope: Heterosexual men’s motivation to bring their partner to orgasm and their intentional incorporation of sexual activities that increase the chance of orgasm for their partner — such as clitoral stimulation and oral sex — can help narrow (and even eradicate!) the gap. Women’s own degree of familiarity with their partner has also been shown to be help narrow the gap. Higher familiarity (think of a long-term situationship as opposed to a casual hookup) was associated with higher orgasm frequency.

    The simple act of prioritizing women’s orgasm — captured with an easy-to-remember phrase of “she comes first” — may be all that is needed to substantially narrow the orgasm gap.

    Caroline Pukall receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the International Society for the Study of Women’s Sexual Health, and Queen’s University.

    ref. Want more orgasms? Choose a woman partner – https://theconversation.com/want-more-orgasms-choose-a-woman-partner-259655

    MIL OSI Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Canada’s proposed east-west energy corridors should prioritize clean energy

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Andy Hira, Professor of Political Science, Simon Fraser University

    Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has made establishing east-west energy corridors a priority for Canada. He suggested that such corridors would include new oil and natural gas pipelines, designed to reduce dependence on the United States.

    Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson has gone even further in pushing for subsidization of carbon capture and storage projects that would effectively underwrite the long-term continuation of the fossil fuel industry at taxpayer expense.

    While there might be short-term political reasons for backing fossil fuels, such an approach goes against Canada’s long-term interests. Prioritizing fossil fuels undermines the country’s commitments to reduce emissions and takes away the investment needed for it to realize its potential to become a green energy superpower.

    Creating energy corridors is in the national interest, and would allow Canada to take full advantage of its abundant and diverse energy and mineral resources. The government also needs to be involved, as the corridors are interprovincial and will require substantial investment. However, the government has limited resources and so Canada must think strategically about its priorities for such corridors.

    Canadian taxpayers should not be subsidizing an already lucrative oil and gas industry. Instead, the federal government should prioritize funding clean energy supply solutions.

    Oil and gas subsidies

    Canadian governments have long faced opposition to building new pipelines. The provinces of Québec and British Columbia and many First Nations have strongly opposed new pipeline proposals. More recently, there is some signs of softening under the duress of U.S. tariffs.

    Even if such shifts are lasting, it’s for the private sector to step up and invest into these projects. Previous federal investments, such as the Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX), were reflections of the private market’s unwillingness to invest in pipelines because they are bad investments. The 2024 Parliamentary Budget Office report estimated that selling the TMX would result in a loss.

    There are reasons to question the soundness of fossil fuels on a purely financial basis. A 2022 Parliamentary budget office report found that climate change reduced GDP by 0.8 per cent in 2021, or around $20 billion. This number is expected to rise to 5.8 per cent per year by 2100 (or $145 billion in 2021 dollars).

    By contrast, from 2017 to 2021, federal, provincial and territorial governments received an average of $12 billion annually in revenues from the the oil and gas industry.

    The gap between the costs and benefits is only going to increase over time. The costs cut across all aspects of life, including food security, health care, global instability and threats to coastal cities due to sea level rise.

    On the other hand, every dollar invested in adaptation today has an estimated return of $13-$15.

    Furthermore, a recent study indicates a likely glut in global natural gas markets, and the future prospects for oil are equally questionable. For example, one of Canada’s target markets, Japan, has been reselling its liquefied natural gas imports to other countries, suggesting the glut of oil and gas is likely to continue as cheaper producers, including those in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, who are cheaper and closer to consumers, flood the market.

    Cheaper and closer oil producers are also flooding markets in anticipation of declining prices.

    There are important opportunity costs of investing money in fossil fuels that could otherwise be invested in the clean energy economy. When new technologies arise, there is a limited window of opportunity for global competitors to enter into an emerging industry.

    In light of the shift to electric vehicles, heat pumps and artificial intelligence, it’s clear that energy demand is bound to increase significantly in Canada in the coming years. Canada can become a global competitor, but only if it enters the race now, while the window is open.

    An East-West clean energy system

    Solar and wind prices have declined by 83 per cent and 65 per cent respectively since 2009. However, they suffer from the fundamental issue of intermittency; the sun is not always shining and the wind isn’t always blowing.

    While battery prices are declining, they remain an expensive solution. An easier solution is at hand: Canada’s hydroelectric resources. Québec, B.C. and Manitoba have abundant hydro resources that can reduce energy costs throughout the rest of the country.

    Alberta and Saskatchewan have potential for significant geothermal power generation. Ontario and the Atlantic provinces could contribute wind and solar. Trading electricity through an integrated national grid increases the investment capital and reduces the need for batteries while diversifying the energy mix.

    But we need an east-west electricity market to make this happen.

    An east-west grid would reduce the need for every province to run its own power generation system. Creating a pooled market would allow provinces to trade electricity, giving consumers more choice and investors a larger market and potential return on their investment.

    More valuable still is the fact that electricity capacity has to be built for the few peak hours and seasons. But most of the time demand is well below full capacity, such as the middle of the night or early summer, when neither heat nor air conditioning is needed in many areas. As peak times and seasons vary across the country, Canada can reduce overall costs by trading the electricity in the lowest cost producing province at a given time to where it’s needed in the other.

    By locating some of the new clean energy in First Nations, Canada can also move reconciliation forward. There is potential for a win-win situation whereby Canada increases renewable energy generation while creating new jobs and income for First Nations wherever feasible.

    The first step is for regulatory reform across the provinces to support a Canada-wide electricity market, and to provide the funding for the massive infrastructure investment required to connect provincial grids. This would be a federal investment with incredible long-term payoffs for employment, taxpayers and future generations.

    Following this plan could truly make Canada an energy superpower on the right side of the energy transition, create thousands of jobs and give the country a global competitive edge — all while helping to save the planet in the process.

    This article was co-authored by energy consultant Sheldon Fernandes.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Canada’s proposed east-west energy corridors should prioritize clean energy – https://theconversation.com/canadas-proposed-east-west-energy-corridors-should-prioritize-clean-energy-259530

    MIL OSI Analysis

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Lemurs can help save Madagascan forests, but first we need to protect them

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Colombe Nirina Sehenomalala, PhD candidate, Anthropology, Université de Montréal

    Most people’s encounters with lemurs have occurred through their representations in popular children’s media, like Zoboomafoo or Madagascar. However, most people don’t know that lemurs play an important role in forest renewal and that they’re currently in grave danger from climate change.

    In my home country of Madagascar, there is an amazing array of creatures that are not found anywhere else in the world. Madagascar is a biodiversity hotspot, and approximately 90 per cent of plant and animal species on this island are endemic.

    Among them are lemurs, a group of primates that are not only the flagship symbols of the island’s fauna, but also one of the key players in the health and stability of Madagascar’s ecosystems because they do the very important work of dispersing seeds.

    I am a primatologist who researches the interactions between infant-and-mother lemur dyads in wild. Their bond is a reminder of what we stand to lose, as it shows care, learning and viability. When forests disappear, so does this fragile bond, and a whole way of life we can never replace.

    Lemurs’ habitats and survival are increasingly being threatened by human activities such as deforestation, forest resource exploitation and hunting. There is an urgent need for conservation projects that involve local communities in preserving Madagascar’s unique biodiversity.

    A lemur trap encountered in the field during our research.
    (C.N. Sehenomalala), CC BY

    Charismatic animals

    Due to their charisma, media attention and their biological significance, lemurs attract tourists and researchers to Madagascar. The viability of lemurs is essential to the island’s future, both economically but especially in terms of protecting biodiversity. As they eat fruits from trees like ebony, mammea and wild coffee and then scatter seeds through their droppings, they help new plants grow.

    Among the 105 lemur species of Madagascar, Propithecus candidus, commonly known as the silky sifaka, is one of the most endangered species. Only around 250 of them are currently living in the wild.

    As their name implies, silky sifakas have visually striking long white hair, and they can only be found in the misty, mountainous rainforests of northeastern Madagascar.

    Silky sifakas are primarily active during the daytime, and can travel very quickly through the trees by vertically clinging to them and leaping from tree to tree using their powerful legs. They have highly specialized diets consisting of leaves, flowers and fruits like Diospyros pervilleana, a native ebony species from Madagascar.

    A BBC Nature documentary clip on silky sifakas.

    Observing mothers and infants

    I have spent 10 years studying and following lemurs daily. During my fieldwork in northeastern Madagascar, I closely observed how deforestation and habitat fragmentation affect silky sifaka females and their young.

    I studied these females during their lactation season in three different forest contexts: Marojejy National Park (a mostly untouched primary rainforest), Makira Natural Park (a mix of old-growth and re-generating forest) and Anjanaharibe-Sud Special Reserve (known as COMATSA-Sud, a primary forest with heavily degraded areas).

    At each forest, the forest canopy, which provides both shelter and food for the lemurs, measured above 10 metres at all sites, but was semi-open, which is a sign of habitat degradation. A semi-open canopy allows more light to permeate the forest canopy, but it also exposes animals to predators and decreases the quantity of high-quality food.

    Mothers’ movements and behaviours

    One clear difference between the three sites is how mother–infant pairs move and use space. In Marojejy, where the forest is more continuous even if the canopy is partly open, mothers and babies stay within fairly fixed areas, following the same paths and resting spots.

    But in places like Makira and COMATSA-Sud, where the forest is broken up into separate patches, mothers have to travel farther and more unpredictably, moving between these isolated patches. This extra travelling causes them to burn more energy and face higher risks from predators and hunters.

    These differences show that fragmentation doesn’t just affect food availability, but also changes how these lemurs move and survive.

    Forest fragmentation affects lemurs’ social behaviour and grouping patterns to deal with low food availability. It also impacts their health and development; a poor diet causes malnourishment in the lemurs.

    Lemurs are social animals, but scarce resources can cause competitive behaviours to emerge.
    (Simponafotsy/Wikimedia Commons), CC BY

    Poor nutritional quality

    While the food availability for silky sifakas in northeastern Madagascar during the lactation season is relatively abundant, it is of low nutritional quality.

    This leads to increased stress and competition as dominant lactating females, desperate to feed their infants, attack subordinates to accumulate more nutrients to produce higher quality milk.

    As offspring start to feed on non-milk foods, the poor nutritional quality of available plants after weaning can lead to poor health and stunted growth.

    Engaging the community

    The decline of lemur populations, particularly silky sifakas, shows the need for urgent conservation action. Continued monitoring — as well as sustained support and funding for Malagasy scientists — is crucial for long-term lemur and biodiversity conservation.

    When it comes to the effects of human activity, this decline — habitat fragmentation, global climate change and deforestation — is the result of large-scale activites such as extraction, tourism and state infrastructural development.

    Education and awareness campaigns are crucial, both in Madagascar and internationally, to inform people about lemurs’ habitat needs and what can be done to prevent their extinction.

    Conservation will never be successful without building an appreciation of the environmental, cultural and economic value of lemurs and the forests they inhabit.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Lemurs can help save Madagascan forests, but first we need to protect them – https://theconversation.com/lemurs-can-help-save-madagascan-forests-but-first-we-need-to-protect-them-256300

    MIL OSI Analysis

  • Not just a few bad apples: The Canadian Armed Forces has a nagging far-right problem

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stéphane Leman-Langlois, Professor, School of Social Work and Criminology, Université Laval

    The Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) is making headlines. But not, as they probably hoped, for the renewed recruiting efforts they’re about to launch. Instead, they are once again confounded by a far-right scandal.

    The latest episode is the arrest of four CAF members and ex-members. Three of them have been charged with taking concrete steps to facilitate terrorist activity and possessing prohibited firearms. A fourth man was charged with possession and storage of prohibited firearms and devices.

    The crew had allegedly been under surveillance by the federal government’s Integrated National Security Enforcement Team since 2021, most likely when equipment, weapons and ammunition began to go missing from military installations. The weapons were finally seized in January 2024, some in the personal vehicle of one of the suspects, but the group remained free for another 18 months.




    Read more:
    Charges against Canadian Army members in anti-government terror plot raise alarms about right-wing extremism


    As is usual with these types of efforts, a certain degree of amateurism was present at multiple stages of the alleged scheme, which may have developed on the fly. The idea that a micro-militia might successfully seize and hold territory in Canada is far-fetched at best.

    Recruitment efforts for the suspected mission, complete with propaganda and self-aggrandizing pictures of military training, took place on, you guessed it: Instagram. (We won’t publish the name of the account.)

    It might be pointed out that any large organization like the CAF inevitably represents a microcosm of society, meaning that it can’t be expected to be free of various forms of undesirable behaviour, including political extremism. But this “rotten apple” theory of far-right extremism in the CAF falls somewhat short of explaining the situation.

    Not just a ‘few rotten apples’

    First, the rotten apples seem too numerous. Just days before the recent arrests, the CAF announced on July 3 it was investigating the participation of other soldiers in a private Facebook page named the “Blue Hackle Mafia.” The page disseminated openly racist, homophobic, misogynist and antisemitic content.

    These events point to a phenomenon difficult to measure within western countries, even though it’s very real. The penetration of ideas associated with the far right within the military and law enforcement agencies is currently happening. Whether more or less structured, the emergence of underground small groups are more or less ready to “take action.”

    Second, previous reports have identified a general laissez-faire approach within the CAF regarding far-right activities. In a 2022 independent report commissioned by the CAF, the presence of white supremacist and other far-right ideologies was identified not only as a growing problem for the Army, but also one that was not being addressed.

    Similar conclusions were reached in the 1997 report on the behaviour of Canadian soldiers in Somalia, which had explicitly recommended that “the Canadian Forces establish regular liaison with anti-racist groups to obtain assistance in the conduct of appropriate cultural sensitivity training and to assist supervisors and commanders in identifying signs of racism and involvement with hate groups.” In other words, neither the concern nor the awareness is news.

    Affinity between far right and military

    At the root of the problem is a peculiar affinity between most forms of far-right ideologies and military or paramilitary/policing organizations.

    It’s absurd to simply paint such organizations as inherently far right in their nature, of course. But strict authority structures and notions of defence, fellowship, honour — as well as the projection of power through physical strength and training and the accompanying symbolism of weapons, fatigues, uniforms and campaign-like deployments — are all very appealing to far-right extremists.

    This nexus has been amply documented and leads to multiple practical implications: extremist groups trying to recruit active or retired soldiers; soldiers joining existing groups or setting up their own; veterans joining existing groups or creating their own, like the founders of Québec’s La Meute; professionally trained lone wolves, like Correy Hurren, who attempted to “arrest” Prime minister Justin Trudeau at Rideau Hall in 2020)

    Members of extremist groups also routinely try to join the military to benefit from training, which elevates their standing within the group.

    Military, former and active, and law enforcement members are to be found in multiple “militia” groups like the Three Percenters, the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers, Diagolon and the Boogaloo movement, for instance. Some are overtly anti-government and/or anti-system, like the Veterans 4 Freedom or The Base.

    Far-right demons

    It may sound strange to think of military personnel or veterans getting involved or creating an anti-government movement when they’ve served under the flag sometimes for decades. The apparent paradox quickly disappears once we understand the manifold individual motivations that underpin their actions.

    They range from the feeling of having served a timourous government that failed to make proper use of the Armed Forces at its disposal. The absence of deployments to theatres of conflict also generates frustration among some in search of military adventure.

    A lot of young men are quickly bored with exercises that never satisfy their expeditionary spirit. The role of camaraderie, of group dynamics based on mutual aid, honour and the presence of danger, as well as mental health issues, must not be overlooked. Not to mention the idea, strong in some units, of defending a singular idea of a “fatherland” endangered by government contempt and inaction.

    What is striking in the light of the recent charges in Québec is not so much the racist and anti-semitic ideological ideas allegedly held by the accused group members. It’s the primacy given to a patriarchal ideology that explicitly targets women and gender. Fascination with Russia and the war in Ukraine waged by Vladimir Putin is also palpable.

    In short, the CAF is still wrestling with far-right demons, though in a new context of social media acceleration and global loss of confidence in democratic institutions. The situation has a high potential to undermine confidence in Canada’s Armed Forces at a time when geopolitical tensions are calling for a strengthening of its military arsenal, and first and foremost, our military human capital.

    The Conversation

    Stéphane Leman-Langlois receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Samuel Tanner receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    Aurélie Campana does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Not just a few bad apples: The Canadian Armed Forces has a nagging far-right problem – https://theconversation.com/not-just-a-few-bad-apples-the-canadian-armed-forces-has-a-nagging-far-right-problem-260896

  • Want more orgasms? Choose a woman partner

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Caroline Pukall, Professor, Department of Psychology, Queen’s University, Ontario

    Being partnered with a woman is associated with an orgasm advantage. (Pexels/Cottonbro)

    The orgasm gap — the consistent finding that men who have sex with women have more frequent orgasms than women who have sex with men — has been shown in study after study of cisgender, heterosexual participants.

    The gap is a big one: Based on a recent Canadian study, approximately 60 per cent of women and 90 per cent of men reported reaching orgasm in their most recent sexual encounter.

    In sexually diverse samples (samples that also include women who have sex with women and men who have sex with men), the pattern becomes more nuanced but still supports a gendered orgasm gap.

    Two women, one with her arms around the other and kissing her forehead
    Research has shown that women who have sex with women have a more equal frequency of orgasms within their partnership.
    (Pexels/Ketut Subiyanto)

    Research has shown that the gap in orgasm frequency is reduced (in other words, there is more equal orgasm frequency) in women who have sex with women (about 75 per cent), and this rate is significantly higher than in women who have sex with men (about 62 per cent). However, men as a group — regardless of who they were having sex with — still had significantly higher orgasm frequency (85 per cent) than women overall (63 per cent). Women are orgasm-disadvantaged overall and especially when they have sex with men.

    Mind the gap

    How far-reaching is the orgasm gap and what factors might be standing in the way of orgasms for all? We — a team of researchers and science journalists from the podcast Science Vsexamined orgasm frequency in a large diverse sample that included sexual (such as lesbian) and gender (such as trans) minorities and majorities, as well as racialized participants (there were no significant results with analyses focused on sexual orientation or race).

    The good news? We found that many people overall were having lots of orgasms — about two-thirds reported having orgasms almost or every time they engaged sexually.

    The not-so-great news? The orgasm gap persisted: cis men overall reported the highest orgasm frequency compared to women and gender minorities (who did not differ significantly from each other). In addition, we found that participants of all genders who engaged sexually with women reported significantly more frequent orgasms than those who engaged sexually with men. So being partnered with a woman is associated with an orgasm advantage.

    More not-so-great news was that about 17 per cent of participants reported almost never or never having orgasms during sex and that there were many factors preventing orgasms in participants. For cis women, psychological barriers — such as insecurities, mental health struggles and distractions — were prominent, as were sexual obstacles (like not receiving adequate stimulation), difficulties inherent in having orgasms (for example, they take too long and require too much effort) and not knowing why orgasms are difficult for them to have.

    Closing the gap

    So why does the orgasm gap exist and persist? One main reason is that broad sociocultural norms prioritize men’s sexual pleasure over women’s. Indeed, these norms develop from the traditional (heterosexual, western) sexual script that defines the end of sexual activity as male orgasm; importantly, women’s adherence to this script has been associated with lower sexual satisfaction.

    A woman in a yellow dress and a man in a dark shirt and khaki shorts sitting on a bed
    Women’s own degree of familiarity with their partner has also been shown to be critical in narrowing the gap.
    (Unsplash/Jonathan Borba)

    Another is that mainstream media feeds into narratives of sexual expectations based on gender, such that portrayals of women who do not have orgasms are much more — even readily — acceptable than portrayals of orgasmless men. This inequality is played out in sexual encounters, perpetuating the gap and contributing to complacency in addressing it.

    But there is hope: Heterosexual men’s motivation to bring their partner to orgasm and their intentional incorporation of sexual activities that increase the chance of orgasm for their partner — such as clitoral stimulation and oral sex — can help narrow (and even eradicate!) the gap. Women’s own degree of familiarity with their partner has also been shown to be help narrow the gap. Higher familiarity (think of a long-term situationship as opposed to a casual hookup) was associated with higher orgasm frequency.

    The simple act of prioritizing women’s orgasm — captured with an easy-to-remember phrase of “she comes first” — may be all that is needed to substantially narrow the orgasm gap.

    The Conversation

    Caroline Pukall receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the International Society for the Study of Women’s Sexual Health, and Queen’s University.

    ref. Want more orgasms? Choose a woman partner – https://theconversation.com/want-more-orgasms-choose-a-woman-partner-259655

  • Canada’s proposed east-west energy corridors should prioritize clean energy

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Andy Hira, Professor of Political Science, Simon Fraser University

    Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has made establishing east-west energy corridors a priority for Canada. He suggested that such corridors would include new oil and natural gas pipelines, designed to reduce dependence on the United States.

    Energy and Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson has gone even further in pushing for subsidization of carbon capture and storage projects that would effectively underwrite the long-term continuation of the fossil fuel industry at taxpayer expense.

    While there might be short-term political reasons for backing fossil fuels, such an approach goes against Canada’s long-term interests. Prioritizing fossil fuels undermines the country’s commitments to reduce emissions and takes away the investment needed for it to realize its potential to become a green energy superpower.

    Creating energy corridors is in the national interest, and would allow Canada to take full advantage of its abundant and diverse energy and mineral resources. The government also needs to be involved, as the corridors are interprovincial and will require substantial investment. However, the government has limited resources and so Canada must think strategically about its priorities for such corridors.

    Canadian taxpayers should not be subsidizing an already lucrative oil and gas industry. Instead, the federal government should prioritize funding clean energy supply solutions.

    Oil and gas subsidies

    Canadian governments have long faced opposition to building new pipelines. The provinces of Québec and British Columbia and many First Nations have strongly opposed new pipeline proposals. More recently, there is some signs of softening under the duress of U.S. tariffs.

    Even if such shifts are lasting, it’s for the private sector to step up and invest into these projects. Previous federal investments, such as the Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX), were reflections of the private market’s unwillingness to invest in pipelines because they are bad investments. The 2024 Parliamentary Budget Office report estimated that selling the TMX would result in a loss.

    There are reasons to question the soundness of fossil fuels on a purely financial basis. A 2022 Parliamentary budget office report found that climate change reduced GDP by 0.8 per cent in 2021, or around $20 billion. This number is expected to rise to 5.8 per cent per year by 2100 (or $145 billion in 2021 dollars).

    By contrast, from 2017 to 2021, federal, provincial and territorial governments received an average of $12 billion annually in revenues from the the oil and gas industry.

    The gap between the costs and benefits is only going to increase over time. The costs cut across all aspects of life, including food security, health care, global instability and threats to coastal cities due to sea level rise.

    On the other hand, every dollar invested in adaptation today has an estimated return of $13-$15.

    Furthermore, a recent study indicates a likely glut in global natural gas markets, and the future prospects for oil are equally questionable. For example, one of Canada’s target markets, Japan, has been reselling its liquefied natural gas imports to other countries, suggesting the glut of oil and gas is likely to continue as cheaper producers, including those in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, who are cheaper and closer to consumers, flood the market.

    Cheaper and closer oil producers are also flooding markets in anticipation of declining prices.

    There are important opportunity costs of investing money in fossil fuels that could otherwise be invested in the clean energy economy. When new technologies arise, there is a limited window of opportunity for global competitors to enter into an emerging industry.

    In light of the shift to electric vehicles, heat pumps and artificial intelligence, it’s clear that energy demand is bound to increase significantly in Canada in the coming years. Canada can become a global competitor, but only if it enters the race now, while the window is open.

    An East-West clean energy system

    Solar and wind prices have declined by 83 per cent and 65 per cent respectively since 2009. However, they suffer from the fundamental issue of intermittency; the sun is not always shining and the wind isn’t always blowing.

    While battery prices are declining, they remain an expensive solution. An easier solution is at hand: Canada’s hydroelectric resources. Québec, B.C. and Manitoba have abundant hydro resources that can reduce energy costs throughout the rest of the country.

    Alberta and Saskatchewan have potential for significant geothermal power generation. Ontario and the Atlantic provinces could contribute wind and solar. Trading electricity through an integrated national grid increases the investment capital and reduces the need for batteries while diversifying the energy mix.

    But we need an east-west electricity market to make this happen.

    An east-west grid would reduce the need for every province to run its own power generation system. Creating a pooled market would allow provinces to trade electricity, giving consumers more choice and investors a larger market and potential return on their investment.

    More valuable still is the fact that electricity capacity has to be built for the few peak hours and seasons. But most of the time demand is well below full capacity, such as the middle of the night or early summer, when neither heat nor air conditioning is needed in many areas. As peak times and seasons vary across the country, Canada can reduce overall costs by trading the electricity in the lowest cost producing province at a given time to where it’s needed in the other.

    By locating some of the new clean energy in First Nations, Canada can also move reconciliation forward. There is potential for a win-win situation whereby Canada increases renewable energy generation while creating new jobs and income for First Nations wherever feasible.

    The first step is for regulatory reform across the provinces to support a Canada-wide electricity market, and to provide the funding for the massive infrastructure investment required to connect provincial grids. This would be a federal investment with incredible long-term payoffs for employment, taxpayers and future generations.

    Following this plan could truly make Canada an energy superpower on the right side of the energy transition, create thousands of jobs and give the country a global competitive edge — all while helping to save the planet in the process.

    This article was co-authored by energy consultant Sheldon Fernandes.

    The Conversation

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Canada’s proposed east-west energy corridors should prioritize clean energy – https://theconversation.com/canadas-proposed-east-west-energy-corridors-should-prioritize-clean-energy-259530

  • Lemurs can help save Madagascan forests, but first we need to protect them

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Colombe Nirina Sehenomalala, PhD candidate, Anthropology, Université de Montréal

    Most people’s encounters with lemurs have occurred through their representations in popular children’s media, like Zoboomafoo or Madagascar. However, most people don’t know that lemurs play an important role in forest renewal and that they’re currently in grave danger from climate change.

    In my home country of Madagascar, there is an amazing array of creatures that are not found anywhere else in the world. Madagascar is a biodiversity hotspot, and approximately 90 per cent of plant and animal species on this island are endemic.

    Among them are lemurs, a group of primates that are not only the flagship symbols of the island’s fauna, but also one of the key players in the health and stability of Madagascar’s ecosystems because they do the very important work of dispersing seeds.

    I am a primatologist who researches the interactions between infant-and-mother lemur dyads in wild. Their bond is a reminder of what we stand to lose, as it shows care, learning and viability. When forests disappear, so does this fragile bond, and a whole way of life we can never replace.

    Lemurs’ habitats and survival are increasingly being threatened by human activities such as deforestation, forest resource exploitation and hunting. There is an urgent need for conservation projects that involve local communities in preserving Madagascar’s unique biodiversity.

    a bent over branch in a rainforest
    A lemur trap encountered in the field during our research.
    (C.N. Sehenomalala), CC BY

    Charismatic animals

    Due to their charisma, media attention and their biological significance, lemurs attract tourists and researchers to Madagascar. The viability of lemurs is essential to the island’s future, both economically but especially in terms of protecting biodiversity. As they eat fruits from trees like ebony, mammea and wild coffee and then scatter seeds through their droppings, they help new plants grow.

    Among the 105 lemur species of Madagascar, Propithecus candidus, commonly known as the silky sifaka, is one of the most endangered species. Only around 250 of them are currently living in the wild.

    As their name implies, silky sifakas have visually striking long white hair, and they can only be found in the misty, mountainous rainforests of northeastern Madagascar.

    Silky sifakas are primarily active during the daytime, and can travel very quickly through the trees by vertically clinging to them and leaping from tree to tree using their powerful legs. They have highly specialized diets consisting of leaves, flowers and fruits like Diospyros pervilleana, a native ebony species from Madagascar.

    A BBC Nature documentary clip on silky sifakas.

    Observing mothers and infants

    I have spent 10 years studying and following lemurs daily. During my fieldwork in northeastern Madagascar, I closely observed how deforestation and habitat fragmentation affect silky sifaka females and their young.

    I studied these females during their lactation season in three different forest contexts: Marojejy National Park (a mostly untouched primary rainforest), Makira Natural Park (a mix of old-growth and re-generating forest) and Anjanaharibe-Sud Special Reserve (known as COMATSA-Sud, a primary forest with heavily degraded areas).

    At each forest, the forest canopy, which provides both shelter and food for the lemurs, measured above 10 metres at all sites, but was semi-open, which is a sign of habitat degradation. A semi-open canopy allows more light to permeate the forest canopy, but it also exposes animals to predators and decreases the quantity of high-quality food.

    Mothers’ movements and behaviours

    One clear difference between the three sites is how mother–infant pairs move and use space. In Marojejy, where the forest is more continuous even if the canopy is partly open, mothers and babies stay within fairly fixed areas, following the same paths and resting spots.

    But in places like Makira and COMATSA-Sud, where the forest is broken up into separate patches, mothers have to travel farther and more unpredictably, moving between these isolated patches. This extra travelling causes them to burn more energy and face higher risks from predators and hunters.

    These differences show that fragmentation doesn’t just affect food availability, but also changes how these lemurs move and survive.

    Forest fragmentation affects lemurs’ social behaviour and grouping patterns to deal with low food availability. It also impacts their health and development; a poor diet causes malnourishment in the lemurs.

    a white lemur feeds another one
    Lemurs are social animals, but scarce resources can cause competitive behaviours to emerge.
    (Simponafotsy/Wikimedia Commons), CC BY

    Poor nutritional quality

    While the food availability for silky sifakas in northeastern Madagascar during the lactation season is relatively abundant, it is of low nutritional quality.

    This leads to increased stress and competition as dominant lactating females, desperate to feed their infants, attack subordinates to accumulate more nutrients to produce higher quality milk.

    As offspring start to feed on non-milk foods, the poor nutritional quality of available plants after weaning can lead to poor health and stunted growth.

    Engaging the community

    The decline of lemur populations, particularly silky sifakas, shows the need for urgent conservation action. Continued monitoring — as well as sustained support and funding for Malagasy scientists — is crucial for long-term lemur and biodiversity conservation.

    When it comes to the effects of human activity, this decline — habitat fragmentation, global climate change and deforestation — is the result of large-scale activites such as extraction, tourism and state infrastructural development.

    Education and awareness campaigns are crucial, both in Madagascar and internationally, to inform people about lemurs’ habitat needs and what can be done to prevent their extinction.

    Conservation will never be successful without building an appreciation of the environmental, cultural and economic value of lemurs and the forests they inhabit.

    The Conversation

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Lemurs can help save Madagascan forests, but first we need to protect them – https://theconversation.com/lemurs-can-help-save-madagascan-forests-but-first-we-need-to-protect-them-256300

  • Guineafowl can outsmart extreme temperatures: we spent a year finding out how

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Johann van Niekerk, Doctor, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of South Africa

    Have you ever wondered how wild birds cope with baking hot afternoons and freezing cold mornings? Our new study has taken a close look at one of Africa’s most familiar birds – the helmeted guineafowl – and uncovered surprising answers about how they deal with extreme temperatures.

    The helmeted guineafowl (Numida meleagris) is a common sight across sub-Saharan Africa’s savannas and semi-arid regions. They are instantly recognisable with their spotted plumage, bony helmet, bare blue head, and loud cackling calls. These birds are famously social, often seen roaming in noisy flocks.

    Helmeted guineafowl can endure air temperatures from -4°C up to 40°C in South Africa.

    The idea that animals huddle to stay warm – known as social thermoregulation – is well documented in mammals and birds like penguins. This theory proposes that animals huddle together to conserve heat in cold conditions, but is this what guineafowl are doing?

    Together with colleagues in Spain, we set out to find the answer because understanding whether birds group to keep warm or for other reasons helps ecologists uncover the true drivers of social behaviour. This can also inform how species will respond to changing climates and help guide conservation strategies.

    We studied a wild population of guineafowl in South Africa’s Madikwe Game Reserve, a protected area near the Botswana border. It’s known for its sharp daily temperature fluctuations during winter, with cold, frosty mornings dropping to 0°C and sweltering afternoons reaching up to 40°C.

    To spy on the birds without disturbing them, we set up a live-streaming webcam at a busy waterhole, recording their behaviour over an entire year. We watched how group size, body posture and daily routines shifted with the seasons and weather.

    What we found was striking.

    Our study challenges some common assumptions about how animals survive in extreme climates. Guineafowl don’t rely on cuddling for warmth like some penguins and some species of monkeys. Rather, they use behaviour – adjusting posture, timing their activity and changing group sizes according to food and safety needs – to navigate life’s temperature extremes.

    This strategy may help them cope with the growing unpredictability of climate.

    When they get together, it’s to exploit a food patch and nurture their offspring within close-knit social groups while foraging, or to fend off predators during coordinated mobbing behaviour.

    What we found

    The evidence we gathered shows that the guineafowl did not form bigger groups when temperatures dropped. There was no evidence they huddled together to stay warm. Even at night, when they roosted in trees, they perched in small family units – just two or three birds per branch.

    Our findings suggest that the reason guineafowl form groups has more to do with food and safety.

    During the dry winter months, when seeds and vegetation are scarce, the birds form large foraging flocks to help find food and stay safe from predators. More eyes mean better chances of spotting danger. This supports the widely recognised “many eyes” hypothesis, which shows that individuals in larger groups benefit from improved predator detection. But once the rains return and food becomes more plentiful and spread out, the guineafowl split into pairs or small groups to focus on breeding.

    While group size wasn’t tied to temperature, the birds used clever body postures to handle both heat and cold. On chilly mornings below 17°C, they puffed out their collar feathers and tucked their bare necks deep into their bodies, creating a rounded, fluffy ball that trapped heat.

    On warmer days, they stood tall with their necks fully extended, legs exposed, and feathers sleek to release excess heat. When temperatures soared above 30°C, they opened their beaks to pant, spread their wings slightly away from their bodies, and exposed bare skin to cool off, much as a dog pants on a hot day.

    One of the most delightful behaviours observed was “sunning”. On frosty winter mornings, guineafowl would fly down from their roosts and stand facing the rising sun, fluffing their feathers and soaking up warmth before starting their day. It’s a simple, effective way to heat up after a cold night.

    Another surprise was how rarely the birds drank water. Despite living in a dry environment, only about 2% of observed guineafowl visits were to the waterhole. In wet seasons, they likely get most of their moisture from eating green plants and insects. In the cold, dry season, when food is drier, drinking increased slightly, but still far less than expected.

    They drank even less when it was both hot and windy, possibly because the noise of the wind makes it harder to detect predators when standing out in the open. Avoiding water during hot periods is usual among helmeted guineafowl, which typically avoid exposing themselves during peak heat due to increased predation risk and the physiological stress of extreme temperatures. Most galliforms (gamebirds) and terrestrial species favour early morning or late afternoon activity patterns, limiting mid-day exposure.

    Every evening, the flock gathered at the same familiar “launching pad” near the waterhole and flew into nearby trees to roost. But once again, warmth wasn’t the reason for this behaviour. They roosted to avoid ground predators, not to share body heat. I have seen them for many years going into trees when predators or dogs chase them, unlike spurfowl and francolin just flying further on.

    Why insights are useful

    This research carries important lessons for understanding animal adaptation. Rather than relying on group warmth, guineafowl show how behavioural flexibility, adjusting posture, timing and habitat use, can buffer them against harsh conditions. It highlights how survival depends not just on temperature or water availability, but on having access to diverse habitat types: open grasslands for foraging and trees or dense bush for roosting and safety.

    As climates shift and ecosystems change, understanding how animals like guineafowl cope with extremes will be crucial for conservation planning.

    The Conversation

    Johann van Niekerk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Guineafowl can outsmart extreme temperatures: we spent a year finding out how – https://theconversation.com/guineafowl-can-outsmart-extreme-temperatures-we-spent-a-year-finding-out-how-260439

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Guineafowl can outsmart extreme temperatures: we spent a year finding out how

    Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Johann van Niekerk, Doctor, Department of Environmental Sciences, University of South Africa

    Have you ever wondered how wild birds cope with baking hot afternoons and freezing cold mornings? Our new study has taken a close look at one of Africa’s most familiar birds – the helmeted guineafowl – and uncovered surprising answers about how they deal with extreme temperatures.

    The helmeted guineafowl (Numida meleagris) is a common sight across sub-Saharan Africa’s savannas and semi-arid regions. They are instantly recognisable with their spotted plumage, bony helmet, bare blue head, and loud cackling calls. These birds are famously social, often seen roaming in noisy flocks.

    Helmeted guineafowl can endure air temperatures from -4°C up to 40°C in South Africa.

    The idea that animals huddle to stay warm – known as social thermoregulation – is well documented in mammals and birds like penguins. This theory proposes that animals huddle together to conserve heat in cold conditions, but is this what guineafowl are doing?

    Together with colleagues in Spain, we set out to find the answer because understanding whether birds group to keep warm or for other reasons helps ecologists uncover the true drivers of social behaviour. This can also inform how species will respond to changing climates and help guide conservation strategies.

    We studied a wild population of guineafowl in South Africa’s Madikwe Game Reserve, a protected area near the Botswana border. It’s known for its sharp daily temperature fluctuations during winter, with cold, frosty mornings dropping to 0°C and sweltering afternoons reaching up to 40°C.

    To spy on the birds without disturbing them, we set up a live-streaming webcam at a busy waterhole, recording their behaviour over an entire year. We watched how group size, body posture and daily routines shifted with the seasons and weather.

    What we found was striking.

    Our study challenges some common assumptions about how animals survive in extreme climates. Guineafowl don’t rely on cuddling for warmth like some penguins and some species of monkeys. Rather, they use behaviour – adjusting posture, timing their activity and changing group sizes according to food and safety needs – to navigate life’s temperature extremes.

    This strategy may help them cope with the growing unpredictability of climate.

    When they get together, it’s to exploit a food patch and nurture their offspring within close-knit social groups while foraging, or to fend off predators during coordinated mobbing behaviour.

    What we found

    The evidence we gathered shows that the guineafowl did not form bigger groups when temperatures dropped. There was no evidence they huddled together to stay warm. Even at night, when they roosted in trees, they perched in small family units – just two or three birds per branch.

    Our findings suggest that the reason guineafowl form groups has more to do with food and safety.

    During the dry winter months, when seeds and vegetation are scarce, the birds form large foraging flocks to help find food and stay safe from predators. More eyes mean better chances of spotting danger. This supports the widely recognised “many eyes” hypothesis, which shows that individuals in larger groups benefit from improved predator detection. But once the rains return and food becomes more plentiful and spread out, the guineafowl split into pairs or small groups to focus on breeding.

    While group size wasn’t tied to temperature, the birds used clever body postures to handle both heat and cold. On chilly mornings below 17°C, they puffed out their collar feathers and tucked their bare necks deep into their bodies, creating a rounded, fluffy ball that trapped heat.

    On warmer days, they stood tall with their necks fully extended, legs exposed, and feathers sleek to release excess heat. When temperatures soared above 30°C, they opened their beaks to pant, spread their wings slightly away from their bodies, and exposed bare skin to cool off, much as a dog pants on a hot day.

    One of the most delightful behaviours observed was “sunning”. On frosty winter mornings, guineafowl would fly down from their roosts and stand facing the rising sun, fluffing their feathers and soaking up warmth before starting their day. It’s a simple, effective way to heat up after a cold night.

    Another surprise was how rarely the birds drank water. Despite living in a dry environment, only about 2% of observed guineafowl visits were to the waterhole. In wet seasons, they likely get most of their moisture from eating green plants and insects. In the cold, dry season, when food is drier, drinking increased slightly, but still far less than expected.

    They drank even less when it was both hot and windy, possibly because the noise of the wind makes it harder to detect predators when standing out in the open. Avoiding water during hot periods is usual among helmeted guineafowl, which typically avoid exposing themselves during peak heat due to increased predation risk and the physiological stress of extreme temperatures. Most galliforms (gamebirds) and terrestrial species favour early morning or late afternoon activity patterns, limiting mid-day exposure.

    Every evening, the flock gathered at the same familiar “launching pad” near the waterhole and flew into nearby trees to roost. But once again, warmth wasn’t the reason for this behaviour. They roosted to avoid ground predators, not to share body heat. I have seen them for many years going into trees when predators or dogs chase them, unlike spurfowl and francolin just flying further on.

    Why insights are useful

    This research carries important lessons for understanding animal adaptation. Rather than relying on group warmth, guineafowl show how behavioural flexibility, adjusting posture, timing and habitat use, can buffer them against harsh conditions. It highlights how survival depends not just on temperature or water availability, but on having access to diverse habitat types: open grasslands for foraging and trees or dense bush for roosting and safety.

    As climates shift and ecosystems change, understanding how animals like guineafowl cope with extremes will be crucial for conservation planning.

    Johann van Niekerk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Guineafowl can outsmart extreme temperatures: we spent a year finding out how – https://theconversation.com/guineafowl-can-outsmart-extreme-temperatures-we-spent-a-year-finding-out-how-260439

    MIL OSI Analysis

  • Indonesia plans to rewrite its national history: A return to an incomplete narrative?

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Indonesia – By Adrian Perkasa, Peneliti Pascadoktoral, Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies

    Indonesia’s plan to rewrite its official national history was initially met with positive responses, particularly for its goal of better serving the younger generation. But the project to reshape the country’s mainstream historical narrative soon ignited widespread controversy for overlooking underrepresented groups and reinforcing authoritarian tendencies.

    By incorporating the latest data and expanding the coverage of historical events and figures, the initiative — launched by the Indonesian Historian Association (MSI) and backed by the Culture Ministry on May 2025 — raised hopes for a more inclusive, accurate, and relevant national history.

    However, backlash soon followed, with criticism intensifying after Culture Minister Fadli Zon’s controversial statement) dismissing the 1998 mass rapes as mere rumours.

    Various groups argue that the rewriting of national history is a calculated move to bolster an increasingly authoritarian government, as it relies solely on scholars and historians with ties to those in power.

    Many groups remain underrepresented

    A nation’s relationship with its history is deeply tied to how contemporary narratives are constructed or shaped. For national historiography to carry legitimacy, it must meaningfully include the voices of diverse groups, classes, communities, and entities.

    However, the project’s terms of reference fail to give due attention to space for women’s roles in the Indonesian independence movement].

    Its treatment of historical narratives from regions beyond Java also remains insufficient — let alone its neglect of non-political and non-economic themes, such as the arts or sports.

    Silent affirmation?

    In response to the controversy, few formal statements have been made from either MSI or the historians involved in the project, apart from the minister and the project’s principal editor.

    One notable exception came from a historian via his social media page, where he reflected on the dilemma of being both an intellectual and a public servant involved in the project.

    He argued that speaking from within, rather than criticising from the outside, demands greater courage and careful calculation – a stance he fears is likely to be overlooked.

    As a history-and-culture researcher, his remarks reinforce the perception that many of the historians involved in the revision project are civil servants at state universities or individuals closely aligned with those in power.

    Lessons from the past

    History itself tells us that the writing of national history is deeply intertwined with the interests of ruling authorities and their affiliated groups.

    From its inception, the genre of national history that emerged in 19th-century Europe and the United States was closely tied to efforts to legitimise territorial expansion and colonial rule.

    In the context of Indonesia’s current national history revision project, it is worth revisiting comparisons between how national histories were written under Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines and Suharto in Indonesia.

    Historians in both countries should be recognised as active agents with their own interests and authority — not as passive participants or easily influenced figures.

    During Suharto’s regime, one historian even withdrew from the state-led national history writing project due to disagreements, particularly over methodological approaches.

    The project’s director marginalised historian Sartono Kartodirdjo — who championed a multidimensional approach — in favour of a more linear, state-centric narrative. Sartono’s more holistic perspective made space for a broader range of historical actors, including farmers and other often-overlooked communities.

    A similar precedent can be traced back to the early years of Indonesian independence, when the government initiated efforts to document the country’s national history in the 1950s. At the time, the National History Writing Committee — comprising prominent scholars — organised Indonesia’s first National History Seminar.

    Yet the initiative failed to produce an official national history, partly due to the same kind of unresolved methodological debates that resurfaced during Suharto’s rule.

    A project for whom?

    Marcus Tullius Cicero, the Roman philosopher-turned-statesman, once said, historia magistra vitae est – history is the teacher of life.

    Given the failures and controversies surrounding Indonesia’s earlier attempt to produce an official national history, the current revision project demands critical re-evaluation — and, if necessary, a complete halt.

    Merely involving more historians to boost representation is not an adequate solution either.

    The core issue lies not in revising history, but in advancing Indonesian historiography. Rather than pushing ahead with an extensive national history rewrite, the government should prioritise fostering diverse local history initiatives — through programmes such as the Cultural Endowment Fund or the Indonesiana Fund.

    This approach would enable a more comprehensive and representative account of Indonesian history — one that integrates local perspectives while remaining connected to national and global narratives.

    The Conversation

    Saya pernah dan masih berkolaborasi untuk riset dengan beberapa lembaga di lingkungan Kementerian Kebudayaan seperti Museum dan Cagar Budaya Nasional, Balai Pelestarian Kebudayaan, dan lainnya.

    ref. Indonesia plans to rewrite its national history: A return to an incomplete narrative? – https://theconversation.com/indonesia-plans-to-rewrite-its-national-history-a-return-to-an-incomplete-narrative-260298

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Indonesia plans to rewrite its national history: A return to an incomplete narrative?

    Source: The Conversation – Indonesia – By Adrian Perkasa, Peneliti Pascadoktoral, Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies

    Indonesia’s plan to rewrite its official national history was initially met with positive responses, particularly for its goal of better serving the younger generation. But the project to reshape the country’s mainstream historical narrative soon ignited widespread controversy for overlooking underrepresented groups and reinforcing authoritarian tendencies.

    By incorporating the latest data and expanding the coverage of historical events and figures, the initiative — launched by the Indonesian Historian Association (MSI) and backed by the Culture Ministry on May 2025 — raised hopes for a more inclusive, accurate, and relevant national history.

    However, backlash soon followed, with criticism intensifying after Culture Minister Fadli Zon’s controversial statement) dismissing the 1998 mass rapes as mere rumours.

    Various groups argue that the rewriting of national history is a calculated move to bolster an increasingly authoritarian government, as it relies solely on scholars and historians with ties to those in power.

    Many groups remain underrepresented

    A nation’s relationship with its history is deeply tied to how contemporary narratives are constructed or shaped. For national historiography to carry legitimacy, it must meaningfully include the voices of diverse groups, classes, communities, and entities.

    However, the project’s terms of reference fail to give due attention to space for women’s roles in the Indonesian independence movement].

    Its treatment of historical narratives from regions beyond Java also remains insufficient — let alone its neglect of non-political and non-economic themes, such as the arts or sports.

    Silent affirmation?

    In response to the controversy, few formal statements have been made from either MSI or the historians involved in the project, apart from the minister and the project’s principal editor.

    One notable exception came from a historian via his social media page, where he reflected on the dilemma of being both an intellectual and a public servant involved in the project.

    He argued that speaking from within, rather than criticising from the outside, demands greater courage and careful calculation – a stance he fears is likely to be overlooked.

    As a history-and-culture researcher, his remarks reinforce the perception that many of the historians involved in the revision project are civil servants at state universities or individuals closely aligned with those in power.

    Lessons from the past

    History itself tells us that the writing of national history is deeply intertwined with the interests of ruling authorities and their affiliated groups.

    From its inception, the genre of national history that emerged in 19th-century Europe and the United States was closely tied to efforts to legitimise territorial expansion and colonial rule.

    In the context of Indonesia’s current national history revision project, it is worth revisiting comparisons between how national histories were written under Ferdinand Marcos in the Philippines and Suharto in Indonesia.

    Historians in both countries should be recognised as active agents with their own interests and authority — not as passive participants or easily influenced figures.

    During Suharto’s regime, one historian even withdrew from the state-led national history writing project due to disagreements, particularly over methodological approaches.

    The project’s director marginalised historian Sartono Kartodirdjo — who championed a multidimensional approach — in favour of a more linear, state-centric narrative. Sartono’s more holistic perspective made space for a broader range of historical actors, including farmers and other often-overlooked communities.

    A similar precedent can be traced back to the early years of Indonesian independence, when the government initiated efforts to document the country’s national history in the 1950s. At the time, the National History Writing Committee — comprising prominent scholars — organised Indonesia’s first National History Seminar.

    Yet the initiative failed to produce an official national history, partly due to the same kind of unresolved methodological debates that resurfaced during Suharto’s rule.

    A project for whom?

    Marcus Tullius Cicero, the Roman philosopher-turned-statesman, once said, historia magistra vitae est – history is the teacher of life.

    Given the failures and controversies surrounding Indonesia’s earlier attempt to produce an official national history, the current revision project demands critical re-evaluation — and, if necessary, a complete halt.

    Merely involving more historians to boost representation is not an adequate solution either.

    The core issue lies not in revising history, but in advancing Indonesian historiography. Rather than pushing ahead with an extensive national history rewrite, the government should prioritise fostering diverse local history initiatives — through programmes such as the Cultural Endowment Fund or the Indonesiana Fund.

    This approach would enable a more comprehensive and representative account of Indonesian history — one that integrates local perspectives while remaining connected to national and global narratives.

    Saya pernah dan masih berkolaborasi untuk riset dengan beberapa lembaga di lingkungan Kementerian Kebudayaan seperti Museum dan Cagar Budaya Nasional, Balai Pelestarian Kebudayaan, dan lainnya.

    ref. Indonesia plans to rewrite its national history: A return to an incomplete narrative? – https://theconversation.com/indonesia-plans-to-rewrite-its-national-history-a-return-to-an-incomplete-narrative-260298

    MIL OSI

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 13, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 13, 2025.

    New Caledonia’s political parties commit to ‘historic’ statehood deal
    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk New Caledonia’s pro-and-anti-independence parties have committed to an “historic” deal over the future political status of the French Pacific territory, which is set to become — for the first time — a “state” within the French realm. The 13-page agreement yesterday, officially entitled “Agreement Project of

    Twyford praises NFIP lead, calls for inspired peace and regionalism
    Asia Pacific Report An opposition Labour Party MP today paid tribute to the Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific (NFIP) movement, saying it should inspire Aotearoa New Zealand to maintain its own independence, embrace a strong regionalism, and be a “voice for peace and demilitarisation”. But Phil Twyford, MP for Te Atatu and spokesperson on disarmament,

    ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 12, 2025
    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 12, 2025.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 13, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 13, 2025.

    New Caledonia’s political parties commit to ‘historic’ statehood deal
    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk New Caledonia’s pro-and-anti-independence parties have committed to an “historic” deal over the future political status of the French Pacific territory, which is set to become — for the first time — a “state” within the French realm. The 13-page agreement yesterday, officially entitled “Agreement Project of

    Twyford praises NFIP lead, calls for inspired peace and regionalism
    Asia Pacific Report An opposition Labour Party MP today paid tribute to the Nuclear Free and Independent Pacific (NFIP) movement, saying it should inspire Aotearoa New Zealand to maintain its own independence, embrace a strong regionalism, and be a “voice for peace and demilitarisation”. But Phil Twyford, MP for Te Atatu and spokesperson on disarmament,

    ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 12, 2025
    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 12, 2025.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: New Caledonia’s political parties commit to ‘historic’ statehood deal

    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk

    New Caledonia’s pro-and-anti-independence parties have committed to an “historic” deal over the future political status of the French Pacific territory, which is set to become — for the first time — a “state” within the French realm.

    The 13-page agreement yesterday, officially entitled “Agreement Project of the Future of New Caledonia”, is the result of a solid 10 days of difficult negotiations between both pro and anti-independence parties.

    They have stayed under closed doors at a hotel in the small city of Bougival, in the outskirts of Paris.

    French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls (centre) shows signatures on the last page of New Caledonia’s new agreement. Image: RNZ Pacific/FB

    The talks were convened by French President Emmanuel Macron after an earlier series of talks held between February and May 2025 failed to yield an agreement.

    After opening the talks on July 2, Macron handed over them to his Minister for Overseas, Manuel Valls, to oversee. Valls managed to bring together all parties around the same table earlier this year.

    In his opening speech earlier this month, Macron insisted on the need to restore New Caledonia’s economy, which was brought to its knees following destructive and deadly riots that erupted in May 2024.

    He said France was ready to study any solution, including an “associated state” for New Caledonia.

    During the following days, all political players exchanged views under the seal of strict confidentiality.

    While the pro-independence movement, and its Kanak and Socialist National Liberation Front (FLNKS), remained adamant they would settle for no less than “full sovereignty”, the pro-France parties were mostly arguing that three referendums — held between 2018 and 2021 — had already concluded that most New Caledonians wanted New Caledonia to remain part of France.

    Those results, they said, dictated that the democratic result of the three consultations be respected.

    Group photo of participants at the end of negotiations. Image: Philippe Gomes

    With this confrontational context, which resulted in an increasingly radicalised background in New Caledonia, that eventually led to the 2024 riots, the Bougival summit was dubbed the “last chance summit”.

    In the early hours of Saturday, just before 7 am (Paris time, 5 pm NZ time), after a sleepless night, the secrecy surrounding the Bougival talks finally ended with an announcement from Valls.

    He wrote in a release that all partners taking part in the talks had signed and “committed to present and defend the agreement’s text on New Caledonia’s future.”

    Valls said this was a “major commitment resulting from a long work of negotiations during which New Caledonia’s partners made the choice of courage and responsibility”.

    The released document, signed by almost 20 politicians, details what the deal would imply for New Caledonia’s future.

    In its preamble, the fresh deal underlines that New Caledonia was “once again betting on trust, dialogue and peace”, through “a new political organisation, a more widely shared sovereignty and an economic and social refoundation” for a “reinvented common destiny.”

    New Caledonia’s population will be called to approve the agreement in February 2026.

    If approved, the text would be the centrepiece of a “special organic law” voted by the local Congress.

    It would later have to be endorsed by the French Parliament and enshrined in an article of the French Constitution.

    What does the agreement contain?
    One of the most notable developments in terms of future status for New Caledonia is the notion of a “State of New Caledonia”, under a regime that would maintain it as part of France, but with a dual citizenship — France/New Caledonia.

    Another formulation used for the change of status is the often-used “sui generis”, which in legal Latin, describes a unique evolution, comparable to no other.

    This would be formalised through a fundamental law to be endorsed by New Caledonia’s Congress by a required majority of three-fifths.

    The number of MPs in the Congress would be 56.

    The text also envisages a gradual transfer of key powers currently held by France (such as international relations), but would not include portfolios such as defence, currency or justice.

    In diplomacy, New Caledonia would be empowered to conduct its own affairs, but “in respect of France’s international commitments and vital interests”.

    On defence matters, even though this would remain under France’s powers, it is envisaged that New Caledonia would be “strongly” associated, consulted and kept informed, regarding strategy, goals and actions led by France in the Pacific region.

    On police and public order matters, New Caledonia would be entitled to create its own provincial and traditional security forces, in addition to national French law enforcement agencies.

    New Caledonia’s sensitive electoral roll
    The sensitive issue of New Caledonia’s electoral roll and conditions of eligibility to vote at local elections (including for the three Provincial Assemblies) is also mentioned in the agreement.

    It was this very issue that was perceived as the main trigger for the May 2024 riots, the pro-independence movement feared at the time that changing the conditions to vote would gradually place the indigenous Kanak community in a position of minority.

    It is now agreed that the electoral roll would be partly opened to those people of New Caledonia who were born after 1998.

    The roll was frozen in 2007 and restricted to people born before 1998, which is the date the previous major autonomy agreement of Nouméa was signed.

    Under the new proposed conditions to access New Caledonia’s “citizenship”, those entitled would include people who already can vote at local elections, but also their children or any person who has resided in New Caledonia for an uninterrupted ten years or who has been married or lived in a civil de facto partnership with a qualified citizen for at least five years.

    Provincial elections once again postponed
    One of the first deadlines on the electoral calendar, the provincial elections, was to take place no later than 30 November 2025.

    It will be moved once again — for the third time — to May-June 2026.

    A significant part of the political deal is also dedicated to New Caledonia’s economic “refoundation”, with a high priority for the young generations, who have felt left out of the system and disenfranchised for too long.

    One of the main goals was to bring New Caledonia’s public debts to a level of sustainability.

    In 2024, following the riots, France granted, in the form of loans, over 1 billion euros (NZ $1.9 billion) for New Caledonia’s key institutions to remain afloat.

    But some components of the political chessboard criticised the measure, saying this was placing the French territory in a state of excessive and long-term debt.

    Group photo of participants at the end of negotiations with the signed agreement. Image: Philippe_Gomes/RNZ Pacific

    Strategic nickel
    A major topic, on the macro-economic side, concerns New Caledonia’s nickel mining industry, after years of decline that has left it (even before 2024) in a state of near-collapse.

    Nickel is regarded as the backbone of New Caledonia’s economy.

    A nickel “strategic plan” would aim at re-starting New Caledonia nickel’s processing plants, especially in the Northern province, but at the same time facilitating the export of raw nickel.

    There was also a will to ensure that all mining sites (many of which have been blocked and its installations damaged since the May 2024 riots) became accessible again.

    Meanwhile, France would push the European Union to include New Caledonia’s nickel in its list of strategic resources.

    New Caledonia’s nickel industry’s woes are also caused by its lack of competitiveness on the world market — especially compared to Indonesia’s recent rise in prominence in nickel production — because of the high cost of energy.

    Swift reactions, mostly positive

    New Caledonian politicians Sonia Backès (left to right), Nicolas Metzdorf, Gil Brial and Victor Tutugoro. Image: Nicolas Metzdorf/RNZ Pacific

    The announcement yesterday was followed by quick reactions from all sides of New Caledonia’s political spectrum and also from mainland France’s political leaders.

    French Prime Minister François Bayrou expressed “pride” to see an agreement “on par with history”, emerge.

    “Bravo also to the work and patience of Manuel Valls” and “the decisive implication of Emmanuel Macron,” he wrote on X-Twitter.

    From the ranks of New Caledonia’s political players, pro-France Nicolas Metzdorf said he perceived as one of the deal’s main benefits the fact that “we will at last be able to project ourselves in the future, in economic, social and societal reconstruction without any deadline.”

    Metzdorf admitted that reaching an agreement required concessions and compromise from both sides.

    “But the fact that we are no longer faced with referendums and to reinforce the powers of our provinces, this was our mandate”, he told public broadcaster NC La 1ère.

    “We’ve had to accept this change from New Caledonia citizenship to New Caledonian nationality, which remains to be defined by New Caledonia’s Congress. We have also created a completely new status as part of the French Republic, a sui generis State”, he noted.

    He said the innovative status kept New Caledonia within France, without going as far as an “associated state” mooted earlier.

    “At least, what we have arrived at is that New Caledonians remain French”, pro-France Le Rassemblement-LR prominent leader Virginie Ruffenach commented.

    “And those who want to contribute to New Caledonia’s development will be able to do so through a minimum stay of residence, the right to vote and to become citizens and later New Caledonia nationals”

    “I’m aware that some could be wary of the concessions we made, but let’s face it: New Caledonia nationality does not make New Caledonia an independent State . . . It does not take away anything from us, neither of us belonging to the French Republic nor our French nationality,” Southern Province pro-France President Sonia Backès wrote on social media.

    In a joint release, the two main pro-France parties, Les Loyalistes and Rassemblement-LR, said the deal was no less than “historic” and “perennial” for New Caledonia as a whole, to “offer New Caledonia a future of peace, stability and prosperity” while at the same time considering France’s Indo-Pacific strategy.

    From the pro-independence side, one of the negotiators, Victor Tutugoro of UNI-UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia) said what mattered was that “all of us have placed our bets on intelligence, beyond our respective beliefs, our positions, our postures”.

    “We put all of these aside for the good of the country.”

    “Of course, by definition, a compromise cannot satisfy anyone 100 percent. But it’s a balanced compromise for everyone,” he said.

    “And it allows us to look ahead, to build New Caledonia together, a citizenship and this common destiny everyone’s been talking about for many years.”

    Before politicians fly back to New Caledonia to present the deal to their respective bases, President Macron received all delegation members last evening to congratulate them on their achievements.

    During the Presidential meeting at the Elysée Palace, FLNKS chief negotiator Emmanuel Tjibaou (whose father Jean-Marie Tjibaou also struck a historic agreement and shook hands with pro-France leader Jacques Lafleur, in 1988), stressed the agreement was one step along the path and it allows to envisage new perspectives for the Kanak people.

    A sign of the changing times, but in a striking parallel — 37 years after his father’s historic handshake with Lafleur, Emmanuel Tjibaou (whose father was shot dead in 1989 by a radical pro-independence partisan who felt the independence cause had been betrayed — did not shake hands, but instead fist pumped with pro-France’s Metzdorf.

    In a brief message on social networks, the French Head of State hailed the conclusive talks, which he labelled “A State of New Caledonia within the (French) Republic,” a win for a “bet on trust.”

    “Now is the time for respect, for stability and for the sum of good wills to build a shared future.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    Signatures on the last page of New Caledonia’s new agreement. Image: Philippe Dunoyer/RNZ Pacific

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: A wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Ben Livneh, Associate Professor of Hydrology, University of Colorado Boulder

    Burned ground can become hydrophobic and almost waxlike, allowing rainfall to quickly wash contaminants downslope. Carli Brucker

    A wildfire rages across a forested mountainside. The smoke billows and the flames rise. An aircraft drops vibrant red flame retardant. It’s a dramatic, often dangerous scene. But the threat is only just beginning for downstream communtiies and the water they rely on.

    After the smoke clears, the soil, which was once nestled beneath a canopy of trees and a spongy layer of leaves, is now exposed. Often, that soil is charred and sterile, with the heat making the ground almost water-repellent, like a freshly waxed car.

    When the first rain arrives, the water rushes downhill. It carries with it a slurry of ash, soil and contaminants from the burned landscape. This torrent flows directly into streams and then rivers that provide drinking water for communities downstream.

    As a new research paper my colleagues and I just published shows, this isn’t a short-term problem. The ghost of the fire can haunt these waterways for years.

    Scientists explain how wildfires can contaminate water supplies and the ways they measure the effects, summarized in their 2024 publication. University of Colorado-Boulder.

    This matters because forested watersheds are the primary water source for nearly two-thirds of municipalities in the United States. As wildfires in the western U.S. become larger and more frequent, the long-term security and safety of water supplies for downstream communities is increasingly at risk.

    Charting the long tail of wildfire pollution

    Scientists have long known that wildfires can affect water quality, but two key questions remained: Exactly how bad is the impact? And how long does it last?

    To find out, my colleagues and I led a study, coordinated by engineer Carli Brucker. We undertook one of the most extensive analyses of post-wildfire water quality to date. The results were published June 23, 2025, in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment.

    We gathered decades of water quality data from 245 burned watersheds across the western U.S. and compared them to nearly 300 similar, unburned watersheds.

    A map of the basins studied shows the outlines of fires in red and burned basins in black. The blue basins did not burn and were used for comparisons.
    Carli Brucker, et al., 2025, Nature Communications Earth & Environment

    By creating a computer model for each basin that accounted for its normal water quality variability, based on factors such as rainfall and temperature, we were able to isolate the impact of the wildfire. This allowed us to see how much the water quality deviated after the fire, year after year.

    The results were stark. In the first year after a fire, the concentrations of some contaminants skyrocketed. We found that levels of sediment and turbidity – the cloudiness of the water – were 19 to 286 times higher than prefire levels. That much sediment can clog filters at water treatment plants and require expensive treatment and maintenance. Think of trying to use a coffee filter with muddy water – the water just won’t flow through.

    Concentrations of organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus were three to 103 times greater in the burned basins. These dissolved remnants of burned plants and soil are particularly problematic. When they mix with the chlorine used to disinfect drinking water, they can form harmful chemicals called disinfection byproducts, some of which are linked to cancer.

    More surprisingly, we found the impacts to be really persistent. While the most dramatic spikes in phosphorous, nitrate, organic carbon and sediment generally occurred in the first one to three years, some contaminants lingered for much longer.

    Contaminants including phosphorus, organic carbon and nitrates lingered in water supplies for years after wildfires. The charts show the average among all burned basins eight years before fires (light blue) and all burned basins after fires (orange). The gray bars show levels in the year immediately after the fire. The horizontal purple line shows levels that would be expected without a fire, based on the prefire years.
    Carli Brucker, et al., 2025, Nature Communications Earth & Environment

    We saw significantly elevated levels of nitrogen and sediment for up to eight years following a fire. Nitrogen and phosphorus act like fertilizer for algae. A surge of these nutrients can trigger algal blooms in reservoirs, which can produce toxins and create foul odors.

    This extended timeline suggests that wildfires are fundamentally altering the landscape in ways that take a long time to heal. In our previous laboratory-based research, including a 2024 study, we simulated this process by burning soil and vegetation and then running water over them.

    After mountain slopes burn, the rain that falls on them washes ash, charred soil and debris downstream.
    Carli Brucker

    The stuff that leaches out is a cocktail of carbon, nutrients and other compounds that can exacerbate flood risks and degrade water quality in ways that require more expensive treatment at water treatment facilities. In extreme cases, the water quality may be so poor that communities can’t withdraw river water at all, and that can create water shortages.

    After the Buffalo Creek Fire in 1996 and then the Hayman Fire in 2002, Denver’s water utility spent more than US$27 million over several years to treat the water, remove more than 1 million cubic yards of sediment and debris from a reservoir, and fix infrastructure. State Forest Service crews planted thousands of trees to help restore the surrounding forest’s water filtering capabilities.

    A growing challenge for water treatment

    This long-lasting impact poses a major challenge for water treatment plants that make river water safe to drink. Our study highlights that utilities can’t just plan for a few bad months after a fire. They need to be prepared for potentially eight or more years of degraded water quality.

    We also found that where a fire burns matters. Watersheds with thicker forests or more urban areas that burned tended to have even worse water quality after a fire.

    Since many municipalities draw water from more than one source, understanding which watersheds are likely to have the largest water quality problems after fires can help communities locate the most vulnerable parts of their water supply systems.

    As temperatures rise and more people move into wildland areas in the American West, the risk of wildfires increases, and it is becoming clear that preparing for longer-term consequences is crucial. The health of forests and our communities’ drinking water are inseparably linked, with wildfires casting a shadow that lasts long after the smoke clears.

    Ben Livneh receives funding from the Western Water Assessment NOAA grant #NA21OAR4310309, ‘Western Water Assessment: Building Resilience to Compound Hazards in the Inter-Mountain West’.

    ref. A wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk – https://theconversation.com/a-wildfires-legacy-can-haunt-rivers-for-years-putting-drinking-water-at-risk-259118

    MIL OSI Analysis

  • FEMA’s flood maps often miss dangerous flash flood risks, leaving homeowners unprepared

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Jeremy Porter, Professor of Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences, City University of New York

    A deadly flash flood on July 4, 2025, swept through Nancy Callery’s childhood home in Hunt, Texas. Brandon Bell/Getty Images

    Destructive flash flooding in Texas and other states is raising questions about the nation’s flood maps and their ability to ensure that communities and homeowners can prepare for rising risks.

    The U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency’s flood maps are intended to be the nation’s primary tool for identifying flood risks.

    Originally developed in the 1970s to support the National Flood Insurance Program, these maps, known as Flood Insurance Rate Maps, or FIRMs, are used to determine where flood insurance is required for federally backed mortgages, to inform local building codes and land-use decisions, and to guide flood plain management strategies.

    A flood risk map.
    A federal flood map of Kerrville, Texas, with the Guadalupe River winding through the middle in purple, shows areas considered to have a 1% annual chance of flooding in blue and a 0.2% annual chance of flooding in tan. During a flash flood on July 4, 2025, the river rose more than 30 feet at Kerrville.
    FEMA

    In theory, the maps enable homeowners, businesses and local officials to understand their flood risk and take appropriate steps to prepare and mitigate potential losses.

    But while FEMA has improved the accuracy and accessibility of the maps over time with better data, digital tools and community input, the maps still don’t capture everything – including the changing climate. There are areas of the country that flood, some regularly, that don’t show up on the maps as at risk.

    I study flood-risk mapping as a university-based researcher and at First Street, an organization created to quantify and communicate climate risk. In a 2023 assessment using newly modeled flood zones with climate-adjusted precipitation records, we found that more than twice as many properties across the country were at risk of a 100-year flood than the FEMA maps identified.

    Even in places where the FEMA maps identified a flood risk, we found that the federal mapping process, its overreliance on historical data, and political influence over the updating of maps can lead to maps that don’t fully represent an area’s risk.

    What FEMA flood maps miss

    FEMA’s maps are essential tools for identifying flood risks, but they have significant gaps that limit their effectiveness.

    One major limitation is that they don’t consider flooding driven by intense bursts of rain. The maps primarily focus on river channels and coastal flooding, largely excluding the risk of flash flooding, particularly along smaller waterways such as streams, creeks and tributaries.

    This limitation has become more important in recent years due to climate change. Rising global temperatures can result in more frequent extreme downpours, leaving more areas vulnerable to flooding, yet unmapped by FEMA.

    A map overlay shows how two 100-year flood maps compare. First Street shows many more streams.
    A map of a section of Kerr County, Texas, where a deadly flood struck on July 4, 2025, compares the FEMA flood map’s 100-year flood zone (red) to First Street’s more detailed 100-year flood zone (blue). The more detailed map includes flash flood risks along smaller creeks and streams.
    Jeremy Porter

    For example, when flooding from Hurricane Helene hit unmapped areas around Asheville, North Carolina, in 2024, it caused a huge amount of uninsured damage to properties.

    Even in areas that are mapped, like the Camp Mystic site in Kerr County, Texas, that was hit by a deadly flash flood on July 4, 2025, the maps may underestimate their risk because of a reliance on historic data and outdated risk assessments.

    Political influence can fuel long delays

    Additionally, FEMA’s mapping process is often shaped by political pressures.

    Local governments and developers sometimes fight to avoid high-risk designations to avoid insurance mandates or restrictions on development, leading to maps that may understate actual risks and leave residents unaware of their true exposure.

    An example is New York City’s appeal of a 2015 FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Maps update. The delay in resolving the city’s concerns has left it with maps that are roughly 20 years old, and the current mapping project is tied up in legal red tape.

    On average, it takes five to seven years to develop and implement a new FEMA Flood Insurance Rate Map. As a result, many maps across the U.S. are significantly out of date, often failing to reflect current land use, urban development or evolving flood risks from extreme weather.

    This delay directly affects building codes and infrastructure planning, as local governments rely on these maps to guide construction standards, development approvals and flood mitigation projects. Ultimately, outdated maps can lead to underestimating flood risks and allowing vulnerable structures to be built in areas that face growing flood threats.

    How technology advances can help

    New advances in satellite imaging, rainfall modeling and high-resolution lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, make it possible to create faster, more accurate flood maps that capture risks from extreme rainfall and flash flooding.

    However, fully integrating these tools requires significant federal investment. Congress controls FEMA’s mapping budget and sets the legal framework for how maps are created. For years, updating the flood maps has been an unpopular topic among many publicly elected officials, because new flood designations can trigger stricter building codes, higher insurance costs and development restrictions.

    A map of Houston showing flooding extending much farther inland.
    A map of Houston, produced for a 2022 study by researchers at universities and First Street, shows flood risk changing over the next 30 years as climate change worsens. Blue areas are today’s 100-year flood-risk zones. The red areas reflect the same zones in 2050.
    Oliver Wing et al., 2022

    In recent years, the rise of climate risk analytics models and private flood risk data have allowed the real estate, finance and insurance industries to rely less on FEMA’s maps. These new models incorporate forward-looking climate data, including projections of extreme rainfall, sea-level rise and changing storm patterns – factors FEMA’s maps generally exclude.

    Real estate portals like Zillow, Redfin, Realtor.com and Homes.com now provide property-level flood risk scores that consider both historical flooding and future climate projections. The models they use identify risks for many properties that FEMA maps don’t, highlighting hidden vulnerabilities in communities across the United States.

    Research shows that the availability, and accessibility, of climate data on these sites has started driving property-buying decisions that increasingly take climate change into account.

    Implications for the future

    As homebuyers understand more about a property’s flood risks, that may shift the desirability of some locations over time. Those shifts will have implications for property valuations, community tax-revenue assessments, population migration patterns and a slew of other considerations.

    However, while these may feel like changes being brought on by new data, the risk was already there. What is changing is people’s awareness.

    The federal government has an important role to play in ensuring that accurate risk assessments are available to communities and Americans everywhere. As better tools and models evolve for assessing risk evolve, FEMA’s risk maps need to evolve, too.

    The Conversation

    Jeremy Porter has nothing to disclose.

    ref. FEMA’s flood maps often miss dangerous flash flood risks, leaving homeowners unprepared – https://theconversation.com/femas-flood-maps-often-miss-dangerous-flash-flood-risks-leaving-homeowners-unprepared-260990

  • A wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Ben Livneh, Associate Professor of Hydrology, University of Colorado Boulder

    Burned ground can become hydrophobic and almost waxlike, allowing rainfall to quickly wash contaminants downslope. Carli Brucker

    A wildfire rages across a forested mountainside. The smoke billows and the flames rise. An aircraft drops vibrant red flame retardant. It’s a dramatic, often dangerous scene. But the threat is only just beginning for downstream communtiies and the water they rely on.

    After the smoke clears, the soil, which was once nestled beneath a canopy of trees and a spongy layer of leaves, is now exposed. Often, that soil is charred and sterile, with the heat making the ground almost water-repellent, like a freshly waxed car.

    When the first rain arrives, the water rushes downhill. It carries with it a slurry of ash, soil and contaminants from the burned landscape. This torrent flows directly into streams and then rivers that provide drinking water for communities downstream.

    As a new research paper my colleagues and I just published shows, this isn’t a short-term problem. The ghost of the fire can haunt these waterways for years.

    Scientists explain how wildfires can contaminate water supplies and the ways they measure the effects, summarized in their 2024 publication. University of Colorado-Boulder.

    This matters because forested watersheds are the primary water source for nearly two-thirds of municipalities in the United States. As wildfires in the western U.S. become larger and more frequent, the long-term security and safety of water supplies for downstream communities is increasingly at risk.

    Charting the long tail of wildfire pollution

    Scientists have long known that wildfires can affect water quality, but two key questions remained: Exactly how bad is the impact? And how long does it last?

    To find out, my colleagues and I led a study, coordinated by engineer Carli Brucker. We undertook one of the most extensive analyses of post-wildfire water quality to date. The results were published June 23, 2025, in the journal Nature Communications Earth & Environment.

    We gathered decades of water quality data from 245 burned watersheds across the western U.S. and compared them to nearly 300 similar, unburned watersheds.

    A map of watersheds in the western U.S.
    A map of the basins studied shows the outlines of fires in red and burned basins in black. The blue basins did not burn and were used for comparisons.
    Carli Brucker, et al., 2025, Nature Communications Earth & Environment

    By creating a computer model for each basin that accounted for its normal water quality variability, based on factors such as rainfall and temperature, we were able to isolate the impact of the wildfire. This allowed us to see how much the water quality deviated after the fire, year after year.

    The results were stark. In the first year after a fire, the concentrations of some contaminants skyrocketed. We found that levels of sediment and turbidity – the cloudiness of the water – were 19 to 286 times higher than prefire levels. That much sediment can clog filters at water treatment plants and require expensive treatment and maintenance. Think of trying to use a coffee filter with muddy water – the water just won’t flow through.

    Concentrations of organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus were three to 103 times greater in the burned basins. These dissolved remnants of burned plants and soil are particularly problematic. When they mix with the chlorine used to disinfect drinking water, they can form harmful chemicals called disinfection byproducts, some of which are linked to cancer.

    More surprisingly, we found the impacts to be really persistent. While the most dramatic spikes in phosphorous, nitrate, organic carbon and sediment generally occurred in the first one to three years, some contaminants lingered for much longer.

    Charts show how contaminants lingered in water supplies for years after wildfires.
    Contaminants including phosphorus, organic carbon and nitrates lingered in water supplies for years after wildfires. The charts show the average among all burned basins eight years before fires (light blue) and all burned basins after fires (orange). The gray bars show levels in the year immediately after the fire. The horizontal purple line shows levels that would be expected without a fire, based on the prefire years.
    Carli Brucker, et al., 2025, Nature Communications Earth & Environment

    We saw significantly elevated levels of nitrogen and sediment for up to eight years following a fire. Nitrogen and phosphorus act like fertilizer for algae. A surge of these nutrients can trigger algal blooms in reservoirs, which can produce toxins and create foul odors.

    This extended timeline suggests that wildfires are fundamentally altering the landscape in ways that take a long time to heal. In our previous laboratory-based research, including a 2024 study, we simulated this process by burning soil and vegetation and then running water over them.

    A blackened mountain slope where all of the trees have burned.
    After mountain slopes burn, the rain that falls on them washes ash, charred soil and debris downstream.
    Carli Brucker

    The stuff that leaches out is a cocktail of carbon, nutrients and other compounds that can exacerbate flood risks and degrade water quality in ways that require more expensive treatment at water treatment facilities. In extreme cases, the water quality may be so poor that communities can’t withdraw river water at all, and that can create water shortages.

    After the Buffalo Creek Fire in 1996 and then the Hayman Fire in 2002, Denver’s water utility spent more than US$27 million over several years to treat the water, remove more than 1 million cubic yards of sediment and debris from a reservoir, and fix infrastructure. State Forest Service crews planted thousands of trees to help restore the surrounding forest’s water filtering capabilities.

    A growing challenge for water treatment

    This long-lasting impact poses a major challenge for water treatment plants that make river water safe to drink. Our study highlights that utilities can’t just plan for a few bad months after a fire. They need to be prepared for potentially eight or more years of degraded water quality.

    We also found that where a fire burns matters. Watersheds with thicker forests or more urban areas that burned tended to have even worse water quality after a fire.

    Since many municipalities draw water from more than one source, understanding which watersheds are likely to have the largest water quality problems after fires can help communities locate the most vulnerable parts of their water supply systems.

    As temperatures rise and more people move into wildland areas in the American West, the risk of wildfires increases, and it is becoming clear that preparing for longer-term consequences is crucial. The health of forests and our communities’ drinking water are inseparably linked, with wildfires casting a shadow that lasts long after the smoke clears.

    The Conversation

    Ben Livneh receives funding from the Western Water Assessment NOAA grant #NA21OAR4310309, ‘Western Water Assessment: Building Resilience to Compound Hazards in the Inter-Mountain West’.

    ref. A wildfire’s legacy can haunt rivers for years, putting drinking water at risk – https://theconversation.com/a-wildfires-legacy-can-haunt-rivers-for-years-putting-drinking-water-at-risk-259118

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 12, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 12, 2025.

    NFIP activists, advocates to open nuclear-free Pacific exhibition
    Asia Pacific Report Nuclear-free and independent Pacific advocates are treating Aucklanders to a lively week-long exhibition dedicated to the struggle for nuclear justice in the region. It will be opened today by the opposition Labour Party’s spokesperson on disarmament and MP for Te Atatu, Phil Twyford, and will include a range of speakers on Aotearoa

    A new exhibition is a thoughtful examination of the lasting relationship between Asia and Australia
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanna Mendelssohn, Honorary Senior Fellow, School of Culture and Communication, The University of Melbourne Jacky Cheng, Imaginary Homelands, 2025, installation view, The Neighbour at the Gate, National Art School Gallery, Sydney, 2025. Image courtesy and © the artist, photograph: Peter Morgan Almost 60 years after former prime

    Hendra virus has killed a horse in Queensland. Should we be worried?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vinod Balasubramaniam, Associate Professor (Molecular Virology), Monash University CJKPhoto/Getty The death of an unvaccinated horse from Hendra virus this week in southeast Queensland is the state’s first reported case in three years. Before that, Australia’s last case was in July 2023, when another unvaccinated horse died in

    The ACT wants dog owners to spend 3 hours a day with their pet. But quality, not quantity, matters most
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Hazel, Associate Professor, School of Animal and Veterinary Science, University of Adelaide Photo by Anna Tarazevich/Pexels Authorities in the ACT have released draft regulations for the welfare of dogs. One inclusion getting attention is a guideline “requiring all dogs to have a minimum of three hours

    Guests at a feast in Iran’s Zagros Mountains 11,000 years ago brought wild boars from all across the land
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Petra Vaiglova, Lecturer in Archaeological Science, Australian National University Kathryn Killackey Have you ever stopped by the grocery store on your way to a dinner party to grab a bottle of wine? Did you grab the first one you saw, or did you pause to think about

    What is cannabis use disorder? And how do you know if you have a problem?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Danielle Dawson, PhD Candidate, School of Psychology and National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland Around 41% of Australians report they’ve used cannabis at some point in their life. Research estimates that 22% of recreational cannabis consumers meet criteria for a cannabis use

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for July 12, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on July 12, 2025.

    NFIP activists, advocates to open nuclear-free Pacific exhibition
    Asia Pacific Report Nuclear-free and independent Pacific advocates are treating Aucklanders to a lively week-long exhibition dedicated to the struggle for nuclear justice in the region. It will be opened today by the opposition Labour Party’s spokesperson on disarmament and MP for Te Atatu, Phil Twyford, and will include a range of speakers on Aotearoa

    A new exhibition is a thoughtful examination of the lasting relationship between Asia and Australia
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanna Mendelssohn, Honorary Senior Fellow, School of Culture and Communication, The University of Melbourne Jacky Cheng, Imaginary Homelands, 2025, installation view, The Neighbour at the Gate, National Art School Gallery, Sydney, 2025. Image courtesy and © the artist, photograph: Peter Morgan Almost 60 years after former prime

    Hendra virus has killed a horse in Queensland. Should we be worried?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vinod Balasubramaniam, Associate Professor (Molecular Virology), Monash University CJKPhoto/Getty The death of an unvaccinated horse from Hendra virus this week in southeast Queensland is the state’s first reported case in three years. Before that, Australia’s last case was in July 2023, when another unvaccinated horse died in

    The ACT wants dog owners to spend 3 hours a day with their pet. But quality, not quantity, matters most
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Hazel, Associate Professor, School of Animal and Veterinary Science, University of Adelaide Photo by Anna Tarazevich/Pexels Authorities in the ACT have released draft regulations for the welfare of dogs. One inclusion getting attention is a guideline “requiring all dogs to have a minimum of three hours

    Guests at a feast in Iran’s Zagros Mountains 11,000 years ago brought wild boars from all across the land
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Petra Vaiglova, Lecturer in Archaeological Science, Australian National University Kathryn Killackey Have you ever stopped by the grocery store on your way to a dinner party to grab a bottle of wine? Did you grab the first one you saw, or did you pause to think about

    What is cannabis use disorder? And how do you know if you have a problem?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Danielle Dawson, PhD Candidate, School of Psychology and National Centre for Youth Substance Use Research, The University of Queensland Around 41% of Australians report they’ve used cannabis at some point in their life. Research estimates that 22% of recreational cannabis consumers meet criteria for a cannabis use

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How citizenship chaos was averted, for now, by a class action injunction against Trump’s birthright citizenship order

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Julie Novkov, Professor of Political Science and Women’s, Gender and Sexuality Studies, University at Albany, State University of New York

    Protesters support birthright citizenship on May 15, 2025, outside of the Supreme Court in Washington. AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

    Legal battles over President Donald Trump’s executive order to end birthright citizenship continued on July 10, 2025, after a New Hampshire federal district judge issued a preliminary injunction that will, if it’s not reversed, prevent federal officials from enforcing the order nationally.

    The ruling by U.S. District Judge Joseph Laplante, a George W. Bush appointee, asserts that this policy of “highly questionable constitutionality … constitutes irreparable harm.”

    In its ruling in late June, the Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to deny citizenship to infants born to undocumented parents in many parts of the nation where individuals or states had not successfully sued to prevent implementation – including a number of mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Southern states.

    Trump’s executive order limits U.S. citizenship by birth to those who have at least one parent who is a U.S. citizen or legal permanent resident. It denies citizenship to those born to undocumented people within the U.S. and to the children of those on student, work, tourist and certain other types of visas.

    The preliminary injunction is on hold for seven days to allow the Trump administration to appeal.

    The June 27 Supreme Court decision on birthright citizenship limited the ability of lower-court judges to issue universal injunctions to block such executive orders nationwide.

    Laplante was able to avoid that limit on issuing a nationwide injunction by certifying the case as a class action lawsuit encompassing all children affected by the birthright order, following a pathway suggested by the Supreme Court’s ruling.

    Pathways beyond universal injunctions

    In its recent birthright citizenship ruling, Trump v. CASA, the Supreme Court noted that plaintiffs could still seek broad relief by filing such class action lawsuits that would join together large groups of individuals facing the same injury from the law they were challenging.

    And that’s what happened.

    Litigants filed suit in New Hampshire’s district court the same day that the Supreme Court decided CASA. They asked the court to certify a class consisting of infants born on or after Feb. 20, 2025, who would be covered by the order and their parents or prospective parents. The court allowed the suit to proceed as a class action for these infants.

    President Donald Trump takes questions on June 27, 2025, in Washington, D.C., after the Supreme Court ruled on the birthright citizenship case.
    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    What if this injunction doesn’t stick?

    If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 1st Circuit or the Supreme Court invalidates the New Hampshire court’s newest national injunction and another injunction is not issued in a different venue, the order will then go into effect anywhere it is not currently barred from doing so. Implementation could begin in as many as 28 states where state attorneys general have not challenged the Trump birthright citizenship policy if no other individuals or groups secure relief.

    As political science scholars who study race and immigration policy, we believe that, if implemented piecemeal, Trump’s birthright citizenship order would create administrative chaos for states determining the citizenship status of infants born in the United States. And it could lead to the first instances since the 1860s of infants being born in the U.S. being denied citizenship categorically.

    States’ role in establishing citizenship

    Almost all U.S.-born children are issued birth certificates by the state in which they are born.

    The federal government’s standardized form, the U.S. standard certificate of live birth, collects data on parents’ birthplaces and their Social Security numbers, if available, and provides the information states need to issue birth certificates.

    But it does not ask questions about their citizenship or immigration status. And no national standard exists for the format for state birth certificates, which traditionally have been the simplest way for people born in the U.S. to establish citizenship.

    If Trump’s executive order goes into effect, birth certificates issued by local hospitals would be insufficient evidence of eligibility for federal government documents acknowledging citizenship. The order would require new efforts, including identification of parents’ citizenship status, before authorizing the issuance of any federal document acknowledging citizenship.

    Since states control the process of issuing birth certificates, they will respond differently to implementation efforts. Several states filed a lawsuit on Jan. 21 to block the birthright citizenship order. And they will likely pursue an arsenal of strategies to resist, delay and complicate implementation.

    While the Supreme Court has not yet confirmed that these states have standing to challenge the order, successful litigation could bar implementation in up to 18 states and the District of Columbia if injunctions are narrowly framed, or nationally if lawyers can persuade judges that disentangling the effects on a state-by-state basis will be too difficult.

    Other states will likely collaborate with the administration to deny citizenship to some infants. Some, like Texas, had earlier attempted to make it particularly hard for undocumented parents to obtain birth certificates for their children.

    People demonstrate outside the Supreme Court of the United States on May 15, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
    Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images

    Potential for chaos

    If the Supreme Court rejects attempts to block the executive order nationally again, implementation will be complicated.

    That’s because it would operate in some places and toward some individuals while being legally blocked in other places and toward others, as Justice Sonia Sotomayor warned in her Trump v. CASA dissent.

    Children born to plaintiffs anywhere in the nation who have successfully sued would have access to citizenship, while other children possibly born in the same hospitals – but not among the groups named in the suits – would not.

    Babies born in the days before implementation would have substantially different rights than those born the day after. Parents’ ethnicity and countries of origin would likely influence which infants are ultimately granted or denied citizenship.

    That’s because some infants and parents would be more likely to generate scrutiny from hospital employees and officials than others, including Hispanics, women giving birth near the border, and women giving birth in states such as Florida where officials are likely to collaborate enthusiastically with enforcement.

    The consequences could be profound.

    Some infants would become stateless, having no right to citizenship in another nation. Many people born in the U.S. would be denied government benefits, Social Security numbers and the ability to work legally in the U.S.

    With the constitutionality of the executive order still unresolved, it’s unclear when, if ever, some infants born in the U.S. will be the first in the modern era to be denied citizenship.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How citizenship chaos was averted, for now, by a class action injunction against Trump’s birthright citizenship order – https://theconversation.com/how-citizenship-chaos-was-averted-for-now-by-a-class-action-injunction-against-trumps-birthright-citizenship-order-260175

    MIL OSI Analysis

  • How citizenship chaos was averted, for now, by a class action injunction against Trump’s birthright citizenship order

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Julie Novkov, Professor of Political Science and Women’s, Gender and Sexuality Studies, University at Albany, State University of New York

    Protesters support birthright citizenship on May 15, 2025, outside of the Supreme Court in Washington. AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin

    Legal battles over President Donald Trump’s executive order to end birthright citizenship continued on July 10, 2025, after a New Hampshire federal district judge issued a preliminary injunction that will, if it’s not reversed, prevent federal officials from enforcing the order nationally.

    The ruling by U.S. District Judge Joseph Laplante, a George W. Bush appointee, asserts that this policy of “highly questionable constitutionality … constitutes irreparable harm.”

    In its ruling in late June, the Supreme Court allowed the Trump administration to deny citizenship to infants born to undocumented parents in many parts of the nation where individuals or states had not successfully sued to prevent implementation – including a number of mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Southern states.

    Trump’s executive order limits U.S. citizenship by birth to those who have at least one parent who is a U.S. citizen or legal permanent resident. It denies citizenship to those born to undocumented people within the U.S. and to the children of those on student, work, tourist and certain other types of visas.

    The preliminary injunction is on hold for seven days to allow the Trump administration to appeal.

    The June 27 Supreme Court decision on birthright citizenship limited the ability of lower-court judges to issue universal injunctions to block such executive orders nationwide.

    Laplante was able to avoid that limit on issuing a nationwide injunction by certifying the case as a class action lawsuit encompassing all children affected by the birthright order, following a pathway suggested by the Supreme Court’s ruling.

    Pathways beyond universal injunctions

    In its recent birthright citizenship ruling, Trump v. CASA, the Supreme Court noted that plaintiffs could still seek broad relief by filing such class action lawsuits that would join together large groups of individuals facing the same injury from the law they were challenging.

    And that’s what happened.

    Litigants filed suit in New Hampshire’s district court the same day that the Supreme Court decided CASA. They asked the court to certify a class consisting of infants born on or after Feb. 20, 2025, who would be covered by the order and their parents or prospective parents. The court allowed the suit to proceed as a class action for these infants.

    Several people raise their hands as a man at a podium answers questions.
    President Donald Trump takes questions on June 27, 2025, in Washington, D.C., after the Supreme Court ruled on the birthright citizenship case.
    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    What if this injunction doesn’t stick?

    If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 1st Circuit or the Supreme Court invalidates the New Hampshire court’s newest national injunction and another injunction is not issued in a different venue, the order will then go into effect anywhere it is not currently barred from doing so. Implementation could begin in as many as 28 states where state attorneys general have not challenged the Trump birthright citizenship policy if no other individuals or groups secure relief.

    As political science scholars who study race and immigration policy, we believe that, if implemented piecemeal, Trump’s birthright citizenship order would create administrative chaos for states determining the citizenship status of infants born in the United States. And it could lead to the first instances since the 1860s of infants being born in the U.S. being denied citizenship categorically.

    States’ role in establishing citizenship

    Almost all U.S.-born children are issued birth certificates by the state in which they are born.

    The federal government’s standardized form, the U.S. standard certificate of live birth, collects data on parents’ birthplaces and their Social Security numbers, if available, and provides the information states need to issue birth certificates.

    But it does not ask questions about their citizenship or immigration status. And no national standard exists for the format for state birth certificates, which traditionally have been the simplest way for people born in the U.S. to establish citizenship.

    If Trump’s executive order goes into effect, birth certificates issued by local hospitals would be insufficient evidence of eligibility for federal government documents acknowledging citizenship. The order would require new efforts, including identification of parents’ citizenship status, before authorizing the issuance of any federal document acknowledging citizenship.

    Since states control the process of issuing birth certificates, they will respond differently to implementation efforts. Several states filed a lawsuit on Jan. 21 to block the birthright citizenship order. And they will likely pursue an arsenal of strategies to resist, delay and complicate implementation.

    While the Supreme Court has not yet confirmed that these states have standing to challenge the order, successful litigation could bar implementation in up to 18 states and the District of Columbia if injunctions are narrowly framed, or nationally if lawyers can persuade judges that disentangling the effects on a state-by-state basis will be too difficult.

    Other states will likely collaborate with the administration to deny citizenship to some infants. Some, like Texas, had earlier attempted to make it particularly hard for undocumented parents to obtain birth certificates for their children.

    Protesters hold signs in front of a federal building.
    People demonstrate outside the Supreme Court of the United States on May 15, 2025, in Washington, D.C.
    Matt McClain/The Washington Post via Getty Images

    Potential for chaos

    If the Supreme Court rejects attempts to block the executive order nationally again, implementation will be complicated.

    That’s because it would operate in some places and toward some individuals while being legally blocked in other places and toward others, as Justice Sonia Sotomayor warned in her Trump v. CASA dissent.

    Children born to plaintiffs anywhere in the nation who have successfully sued would have access to citizenship, while other children possibly born in the same hospitals – but not among the groups named in the suits – would not.

    Babies born in the days before implementation would have substantially different rights than those born the day after. Parents’ ethnicity and countries of origin would likely influence which infants are ultimately granted or denied citizenship.

    That’s because some infants and parents would be more likely to generate scrutiny from hospital employees and officials than others, including Hispanics, women giving birth near the border, and women giving birth in states such as Florida where officials are likely to collaborate enthusiastically with enforcement.

    The consequences could be profound.

    Some infants would become stateless, having no right to citizenship in another nation. Many people born in the U.S. would be denied government benefits, Social Security numbers and the ability to work legally in the U.S.

    With the constitutionality of the executive order still unresolved, it’s unclear when, if ever, some infants born in the U.S. will be the first in the modern era to be denied citizenship.

    The Conversation

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How citizenship chaos was averted, for now, by a class action injunction against Trump’s birthright citizenship order – https://theconversation.com/how-citizenship-chaos-was-averted-for-now-by-a-class-action-injunction-against-trumps-birthright-citizenship-order-260175

  • The forgotten 80-year-old machine that shaped the internet – and could help us survive AI

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martin Rudorfer, Lecturer in Computer Science, Aston University

    Many years ago, long before the internet or artificial intelligence, an American engineer called Vannevar Bush was trying to solve a problem. He could see how difficult it had become for professionals to research anything, and saw the potential for a better way.

    This was in the 1940s, when anyone looking for articles, books or other scientific records had to go to a library and search through an index. This meant drawers upon drawers filled with index cards, typically sorted by author, title or subject.

    When you had found what you were looking for, creating copies or excerpts was a tedious, manual task. You would have to be very organised in keeping your own records. And woe betide anyone who was working across more than one discipline. Since every book could physically only be in one place, they all had to be filed solely under a primary subject. So an article on cave art couldn’t be in both art and archaeology, and researchers would often waste extra time trying to find the right location.


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    This had always been a challenge, but an explosion in research publications in that era had made it far worse than before. As Bush wrote in an influential essay, As We May Think, in The Atlantic in July 1945:

    There is a growing mountain of research. But there is increased evidence that we are being bogged down today as specialisation extends. The investigator is staggered by the findings and conclusions of thousands of other workers – conclusions which he cannot find time to grasp, much less to remember, as they appear.

    Bush was dean of the school of engineering at MIT (the Massachusetts Institute of Technology) and president of the Carnegie Institute. During the second world war, he had been the director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development, coordinating the activities of some 6,000 scientists working relentlessly to give their country a technological advantage. He could see that science was being drastically slowed down by the research process, and proposed a solution that he called the “memex”.

    The memex was to be a personal device built into a desk that required little physical space. It would rely heavily on microfilm for data storage, a new technology at the time. The memex would use this to store large numbers of documents in a greatly compressed format that could be projected onto translucent screens.

    Most importantly, Bush’s memex was to include a form of associative indexing for tying two items together. The user would be able to use a keyboard to click on a code number alongside a document to jump to an associated document or view them simultaneously – without needing to sift through an index.

    Bush acknowledged in his essay that this kind of keyboard click-through wasn’t yet technologically feasible. Yet he believed it would be soon, pointing to existing systems for handling data such as punched cards as potential forerunners.

    Woman operating a punched card machine
    Punched cards were an early way of storing digital information.
    Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

    He envisaged that a user would create the connections between items as they developed their personal research library, creating chains of microfilm frames in which the same document or extract could be part of multiple trails at the same time.

    New additions could be inserted either by photographing them on to microfilm or by purchasing a microfilm of an existing document. Indeed, a user would be able to augment their memex with vast reference texts. “New forms of encyclopedias will appear,” said Bush, “ready-made with a mesh of associative trails running through them, ready to be dropped into the memex”. Fascinatingly, this isn’t far from today’s Wikipedia.

    Where it led

    Bush thought the memex would help researchers to think in a more natural, associative way that would be reflected in their records. He is thought to have inspired the American inventors Ted Nelson and Douglas Engelbart, who in the 1960s independently developed hypertext systems, in which documents contained hyperlinks that could directly access other documents. These became the foundation of the world wide web as we know it.

    Beyond the practicalities of having easy access to so much information, Bush believed that the added value in the memex lay in making it easier for users to manipulate ideas and spark new ones. His essay drew a distinction between repetitive and creative thought, and foresaw that there would soon be new “powerful mechanical aids” to help with the repetitive variety.

    He was perhaps mostly thinking about mathematics, but he left the door open to other thought processes. And 80 years later, with AI in our pockets, we’re automating far more thinking than was ever possible with a calculator.

    If this sounds like a happy ending, Bush did not sound overly optimistic when he revisited his own vision in his 1970 book Pieces of the Action. In the intervening 25 years, he had witnessed technological advances in areas like computing that were bringing the memex closer to reality.

    Yet Bush felt that the technology had largely missed the philosophical intent of his vision – to enhance human reasoning and creativity:

    In 1945, I dreamed of machines that would think with us. Now, I see machines that think for us – or worse, control us.

    Bush would die just four years later at the age of 84, but these concerns still feel strikingly relevant today. While it’s great that we do not need to search for a book by flipping through index cards in chests of drawers, we might feel more uneasy about machines doing most of the thinking for us.

    A phone screen with AI apps
    Just 80 years after Bush proposed the Memex, AIs on smartphones are an everyday thing.
    jackpress

    Is this technology enhancing and sharpening our skills, or is it making us lazy? No doubt everyone is different, but the danger is that whatever skills we leave to the machines, we eventually lose, and younger generations may not even get the opportunity to learn them in the first place.

    The lesson from As We May Think is that a purely technical solution like the memex is not enough. Technology still needs to be human-centred, underpinned by a philosophical vision. As we contemplate a great automation in human thinking in the years ahead, the challenge is to somehow protect our creativity and reasoning at the same time.

    The Conversation

    Martin Rudorfer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The forgotten 80-year-old machine that shaped the internet – and could help us survive AI – https://theconversation.com/the-forgotten-80-year-old-machine-that-shaped-the-internet-and-could-help-us-survive-ai-260839

  • Pets can get sunburned too – what you need to know

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jacqueline Boyd, Senior Lecturer in Animal Science, Nottingham Trent University

    While there is good awareness of the potential dangers of pets overheating in high temperatures during summer months, recognising that the sunburn itself can be a source of harm is also important.

    We might think that our furry friends are protected from the sun’s harmful rays thanks to their typical hairiness, but in reality, we need to protect them too.

    This is especially important for pets with light-coloured hair, pale, pink skin or those with fine or thin coats such as the sphynx cat or the xoloitzcuintle dog that lack natural protection.

    For pets that live outdoors or spend a lot of time in the sun, this can also be a significant problem.


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    Pink skin lacks the pigment, melanin, that provides a natural level of protection from sunlight. As a result, pets with exposed areas of pink skin can become painfully sunburned, even on days that might not appear overly sunny. The tips of cats’ ears are commonly affected, as are horses with pink muzzles and other lightly pigmented areas of their body.

    Dogs can also be affected on their noses and bellies – I have even known one unfortunate pooch to suffer sunburn on his scrotum after a period of garden sunbathing. Essentially, just like us, any unprotected area of skin that is exposed to the sun can become painfully burned, with both short and more prolonged effects.

    Even minor areas of sunburn are associated with reddening of the skin, irritation and discomfort. More severe cases of sunburn can cause blistering, crusting and scabs to form on affected areas. While these signs typically heal and resolve quickly, they can be painful and distressing for our pets.

    The longer-term consequences can include significant damage to the skin and may increase the risk of certain forms of skin cancer developing.

    There is also the potential for thermal burns to occur after exposure to intense sunlight, especially over the backs of animals. These can be severe, affecting the full thickness of the skin and causing significant distress.

    Consequently, protecting our pets from the pain of sunburn is important.

    How to protect your pet

    An easy way to keep your pet safe both from the damaging UV radiation in sunlight and high temperatures, is to limit their access outdoors during the sunniest and warmest times of the day. This might mean exercising your dog early in the morning and later in the evening, providing shade and shelter for horses and encouraging cats to sunbathe safely indoors.

    The use of sunscreen can be a useful protective method to limit harm to exposed areas of skin, but do select a pet-safe sunscreen. Many human sunscreen preparations contain ingredients that can be toxic for our pets, especially if accidentally licked and ingested.

    Reapply sunscreen regularly and don’t forget to apply it to the areas most likely to be exposed, such as ears, noses and pink-skinned or lightly coated areas of the body.

    For some pets, suitable protective clothing and coverings, including UV eye protection might be appropriate, although do take time to get your pet used to wearing and moving in these before use.

    What if your pet has been sunburned?

    If your pet gets a mild sunburn but seems comfortable and not in distress, a cold compress can offer some soothing relief. Gently apply it to the affected area to help ease discomfort. Keep a close eye on the healing process, and be sure to protect your pet from further sun exposure.

    In more severe cases, contact your vet for advice and additional treatment. Painkillers or antibiotics might be needed and these can only be prescribed for your pet by a veterinary surgeon.

    Equally, if you find unusual areas on your pet’s skin such as non-healing or unusually crusty sores and are concerned that it could be a sign of skin cancer, speak to your vet for guidance and support.

    Global UV levels are increasing. This means that in the same way that we have increased exposure to potentially harmful levels, our pets do too. By managing how our pets experience sunshine and by using protective options where possible, we can go some way to avoiding the pain and distress of sunburn, as well as the more serious possible long-term consequences such as skin cancer.

    The Conversation

    In addition to her academic affiliation at Nottingham Trent University (NTU) and support from the Institute for Knowledge Exchange Practice (IKEP) at NTU, Jacqueline Boyd is affiliated with The Kennel Club (UK) through membership, as advisor to the Health Advisory Group and membership of the Activities Committee. Jacqueline is also a full member of the Association of Pet Dog Trainers (APDT #01583). She also writes, consults and coaches on canine matters on an independent basis.

    ref. Pets can get sunburned too – what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/pets-can-get-sunburned-too-what-you-need-to-know-260076

  • How citizens’ assemblies could improve animal welfare

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Heather Browning, Lecturer in Philosophy, University of Southampton

    Heather Browning speaks about animal welfare and ethics as part of the Citizens’ Assembly for Animal Welfare opening event in Birmingham. RSPCA, CC BY-NC-ND

    As an animal lover, should you visit zoos? Should you have pets? Should you make your garden friendly for birds, pollinators and other wildlife? Should you try to reduce meat in your diet or avoid consuming all animal products? Should you write to politicians about changing the laws for animals?

    As a lecturer in animal ethics and animal welfare science, and someone who’s spent a lot of time working with animals, these are the sorts of questions I think about.

    There are lots of ways to be kinder to animals. All have their merits. But the big question is: what sort of future do we want to see for animals in our society?

    We live in a time where animals are facing some of their biggest challenges, from the climate crisis to industrial farming. Combined with other social issues such as the cost of living crisis and global conflicts, we as citizens and consumers have many other competing claims on our capacity to care. This can mean less attention for animals and the harms they face.


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    This creates a big problem. Alongside the ethical reasons for improving animals’ lives, good animal welfare can benefit everyone – among other things, care for and connections with animals improves our own mental health, fosters compassion in our communities, and can lead to improvements in our natural environment. We don’t want to lose sight of the progress we’ve made in our thinking about and treatment of animals.

    It’s undeniable that there have been many welfare gains for animals over the years, but in the face of how far we still have to go, perhaps new approaches are needed. How can we conceive of new, and perhaps more radical, ways to help animals? And importantly, how do we keep animal welfare on the agenda, both socially and politically?

    For over two centuries, the Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) has played a central role in this fight. Alongside their animal rescue work, they have campaigned for changes in over 400 laws, and worked with the public to find ways to improve welfare for pets, farmed animals and wildlife.

    This year they are stepping into a new frontier and have commissioned what is possibly the first ever citizens’ assembly focused entirely on animal welfare in the world, delivered with the assistance of experts from the New Citizen Project, a consultancy that specialises in citizen-led engagement. The assembly is part of the RSPCA’s Animal Futures project, which aims to examine what the future may hold for animals by 2050, and most importantly how everyone (citizens, consumers and policymakers) has a role in influencing this.

    chickens farmed outside, green grass and open air
    Citizens’ assemblies are being held to debate animal welfare issues, such as chicken farming for eggs.
    Dewald Kirsten/Shutterstock

    Citizens’ assemblies bring together a randomly selected representative sample of the population, who learn about and debate issues and make recommendations. It’s a form of deliberative democracy, where the people can have their say on important social and political issues.

    Assemblies are a means of overcoming some of the current problems with the democratic process, like the exclusion of people who often aren’t heard in politics (such as those with less money or education, or racial and religious minorities) and polarisation between major government parties that can slow down decision-making and action.

    Beyond just a focus group asking for existing opinions, citizen’s assemblies provide opportunities for members to learn and shape their thinking, to build expertise on the topics they deliberate.

    Assemblies have already been used around the world on issues as diverse as abortion rights, electoral reform and food waste. As they are independently facilitated, they don’t just follow the accepted institutional narratives and can instead encourage organisations and policymakers to envision new directions for thought and action – in line with the realities of what the public believe and value.

    There are now several examples of the recommendations coming from such assemblies successfully driving policy change, such as climate change reform in France.

    While organisations such as the RSPCA may know a lot about animals, hosting this assembly is an acknowledgement that they don’t have all the answers about what is best for society as a whole, as we consider our interactions with animals. The scope of this problem is far larger than any one organisation can tackle alone, and through initiatives such as the citizens’ assembly, we can gain a greater insight into the possible solutions for the future.

    Animal assembly

    I recently attended this assembly’s opening session in Birmingham, where members were gathered from all around England and Wales (neatly marked by pins scattered across a map of the country). Looking around the room there was obvious diversity in demographics and backgroun and as I spoke with the members it was also apparent there was a wide range of opinions and beliefs on the topics we discussed.

    What everyone shared was a commitment to the process – to learn from the experts who were there to introduce the topics, to deliberate and discuss carefully and thoughtfully – and a desire to contribute and influence the process. Being there felt like being part of an important moment for the future of animal welfare.

    In the weeks that followed, the members of the assembly met again several times to absorb and consider huge amounts of information about topics such as farming, responsible pet ownership, wildlife, and nature. Based on this, they will make a series of recommendations that will drive change at the RSPCA.

    What they produce will be used to shape its future direction, how it works, and how it lobbies governments. What these assembly members recommend could have a substantial and lasting impact on animal welfare in the UK.

    Like many animal welfare experts from academia, industry or charities, I might think I have the answers on what animals need. But successful solutions require public backing to have real impact. Improving the future for animals is something that everyone has a role in and a citizens’ assembly can be a catalyst for positive change.


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    The Conversation

    Heather Browning does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How citizens’ assemblies could improve animal welfare – https://theconversation.com/how-citizens-assemblies-could-improve-animal-welfare-259755

  • Overhauling the NHS app is at the heart of UK healthcare plans, but it could leave some people behind

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Catia Nicodemo, Professor of Health Economics, Brunel University of London

    The ‘doctor in your pocket’ will see you soon. CeltStudio/Shutterstock

    The UK government’s ten-year health plan promises a radical digital transformation of the NHS. A key part of this change is said to come from developing the NHS app, which is being hailed as a “doctor in your pocket”.

    The upgraded app will apparently offer features like instant health advice, appointment booking, prescription management and access to personal health records. It is hoped the software will become users’ “front door” to the NHS.

    It’s an ambitious vision which aims to empower patients, streamline services and reduce red tape. And for tech-savvy users, these innovations could significantly improve access to care, reduce waiting times and enhance patient autonomy.

    But while it may herald a new era of convenience for many, it risks leaving behind anyone who struggles with an increasingly digital world. This could then exacerbate health inequalities which already exist – and increase pressure on some areas of already strained services.


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    In particular, a digital-first approach to healthcare risks excluding older adults, who may lack the skills or resources to confidently navigate the necessary software. The media regulator Ofcom estimates that around 6% of UK households still lack internet access at home. Figures from the charity Age UK suggest that 33% of people over 75 in the UK lack basic digital skills.

    With regard to health specifically, a 2024 study found that older patients were more likely to misunderstand automated symptom checkers, leading to unnecessary anxiety or delayed care.

    For these people, the planned shift to app-based services could create new barriers to accessing care, potentially leading to delayed diagnoses and worsening health outcomes.

    The NHS plan does at least acknowledge this divide, and says it will confer with patient groups and work with other establishments (such as libraries) to support digital literacy. But these measures will not be enough without guaranteed funding.

    And older people, even those who are comfortable with technology, may face other challenges such as visual impairment or cognitive decline, which can make using apps difficult.

    Others who struggle to use the NHS App for routine care may delay seeking help until their conditions worsen, placing avoidable strain on overstretched hospitals.

    Digital diversion

    This strain might include digital triage inadvertently funnelling non-urgent cases to A&E if users misinterpret symptoms or find the app’s guidance unclear, a risk compounded by the lack of human oversight in automated systems. Or a patient with chronic pain might avoid the app due to digital anxiety or confusion, and end up going to A&E when their condition becomes unbearable and more costly to treat.

    Two women of different generations use a smartphone together.
    Not everyone is comfortable with apps.
    Halfpoint/Shutterstock

    To avoid all of this, the NHS needs to maintain traditional communication options. Telephone and in-person services must remain accessible and widely available. The ten-year plan’s focus on “digital by default” should not become “digital only”.

    There should also be plenty of investment to help people feel digitally empowered and included. Places like libraries and community centres can certainly help, but targeted outreach will also be necessary, such as partnerships with charities.

    This is not to say the NHS should be overly wary of the benefits of increased digital capabilities. The ten-year plan highlights, for example, the app’s potential to alleviate some of the burdens on healthcare staff, with AI able to take care of admin, saving clinicians time which can be used for patient care instead.

    Such efficiencies are critical for a system grappling with workforce shortages and rising demand. Yet if digital tools are not universally accessible or usable, not everyone will benefit.

    So while the NHS’s digital ambitions are commendable, their success hinges on inclusivity. If it’s not careful, the system risks entrenching a two-tier system where younger, tech-literate patients benefit while older and disadvantaged groups face greater exclusion. As the NHS embraces innovation, it must ensure no one is left behind – especially those who rely on it the most.

    The Conversation

    Catia Nicodemo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Overhauling the NHS app is at the heart of UK healthcare plans, but it could leave some people behind – https://theconversation.com/overhauling-the-nhs-app-is-at-the-heart-of-uk-healthcare-plans-but-it-could-leave-some-people-behind-260540

  • ‘Come meet us in Dubai’: the new offshoring of grand corruption

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Heathershaw, Professor in International Relations, University of Exeter

    So-called professional enablers of grand corruption are increasing service provision out of jurisdictions where they can act without similar restraints. WaitForLight / Shutterstock

    During an interview one of us (Ricardo Soares de Oliveira) carried out in 2017, an African high net-worth individual said he was told by an executive whose business had long served him out of London: “Come meet us in Dubai”. This is part of a large but still misunderstood shift.

    In response to the hardening of rules for foreign money of dubious origins in traditional financial centres, sensitive business has been moving toward new, more permissive jurisdictions. This offshoring of services is giving corrupt strategies a new lease of life, while also making the fightback more difficult.

    For every corrupt dealing that materialises as legitimate wealth, a trail of service provision is indispensable. Bankers, lawyers, real estate executives, accountants, management consultants and PR agencies have acted as facilitators in western financial centres.

    Western governments have long indulged kleptocracy, a system where business success and political power are inextricably entwined. They have done so by condoning lax law enforcement and promoting deregulation, often through risible mechanisms of professional self-regulation.

    But in recent years, data leaks and brave championship of reform by politicians, as well as the work of civil society organisations, investigative journalists and academics, have shed light on the role of these so-called professional enablers.

    In June 2024, a month before becoming British foreign secretary, David Lammy promised to take aim at professionals who enable corruption through London and the UK’s overseas territories. This, he noted, included the “finest bankers, lawyers, estate agents and accountants that money could buy”.

    Lammy’s comments give the impression that the era of risk-free facilitation of corrupt behaviour is at an end. But this optimism is, at least for now, misplaced.

    The shift is largely in political discourse and media scrutiny. Enforcement seriously lags everywhere and is now in reverse gear in the US. Professional enablers still face no real sanction for engaging in such practices.

    At the same time, many professionals are reacting to a more tightly regulated ecosystem in western jurisdictions by engaging in so-called “jurisdictional arbitrage”. There is evidence that they are increasing service provision out of jurisdictions where they can act without similar restraints.

    Jurisdictional arbitrage

    Almost all cases of the professional enabling we have studied involve service provision in western hubs and “new” global financial centres.

    The professional network around Gulnara Karimova, the daughter of the former president of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, was dubbed “the office” by Swiss prosecutors. Karimova was jailed in 2014 for taking bribes for access to the country’s market.

    The criminal investigation into her involved 12 jurisdictions, including the UK, US and Uzbekistan as well as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Hong Kong.

    Isabel dos Santos, who is Africa’s richest woman and the daughter of former Angolan president José Eduardo dos Santos, also held a maze of global interests. These interests, as in the case of Karimova, spanned western jurisdictions and Asian financial centres such as Dubai, Singapore and Hong Kong.

    Alternative jurisdictions all offer very similar conditions. They are already well-connected, world-class financial centres that are attractive to international business executives.

    Their governments have created regulatory, fiscal and secrecy conditions, sometimes explicitly undercutting older centres such as Switzerland and London. In the latest edition of the Global Financial Centers index, which ranks the competitiveness of financial centres, Dubai rose four places to go above Dublin, Geneva and Paris.

    Crucially, they are also mostly authoritarian states where there is no media or civil society pressure regarding business activities. Even the intermittent sort of scrutiny one sees in western financial centres is absent there.

    Much activity in these financial centres is legal and based on their legitimate competitive advantages. Business interests are also attracted by their vast capital pools. But they are proving to be especially appealing for the sort of business that can no longer flock to other jurisdictions.

    This is the case with servicing clients from states under sanctions such as Russia or Iran. It also applies to regions like Africa and central Asia with high compliance barriers whose high net-worth individuals and firms can no longer get easy access to OECD jurisdictions.

    Researchers at the University of Sussex have shown a major shift in dirty money networks away from the west and towards what they call a “Dubai-Kong axis”.

    There is no exact portrait of the magnitude of this jurisdictional arbitrage. But our work tells us it is big. Two examples from Switzerland are commodity trading and wealth management.

    These sectors have long been under-scrutinised. But they have seen regulatory tightening and greater media attention in recent years. Both have reacted the same way, by sending important parts of their business away from Switzerland.

    The UAE has been dubbed the “new Swiss financial mecca”, with the Financial Times reporting in May 2025 that Swiss family offices are moving there “wholesale”. Far from downplaying the “Swiss brand”, they continue to advertise their multi-generational expertise and “old money” mystique, but from more amenable locations.

    What can be done?

    The many types of legal business involving professional services in these jurisdictions should not be affected. But national and international law must designate the “kleptocratic enterprise” of elites and professionals as a form of serious organised crime.

    This would allow prosecutors to target professionals for working with criminal kleptocrats rather than having to prove that the particular asset handled has criminal origin. This move was made by Swiss prosecutors in the Karimova case.

    It captures the reality that ill-gotten gains are layered and integrated into assets held overseas, just as enablers do for criminal gangs. It also means that the moving of the family office to Dubai will not prevent prosecution where an asset is held or registered.

    Finally, governments could stimulate the market in asset recovery by making it easier for foreign governments and civil society to bring cases, with expert law firms working on a for-profit basis.

    Illicit finance is always transnational, so there is no need to declare defeat just because dodgy business is on the move. However, we are entering a new stage in its global dissemination and complexity.

    The Conversation

    John Heathershaw receives funding from the Governance Integrity Anti-Corruption Evidence Programme funded by UK Aid from the UK Government for the benefits of developing countries. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the UK government’s official policies. He is affiliated with the UK Anti-Corruption Coalition.

    Ricardo Soares de Oliveira receives funding from the Governance Integrity Anti-Corruption Evidence Programme funded by UK Aid from the UK Government for the benefits of developing countries. The views expressed are not necessarily those of the UK government’s official policies.

    ref. ‘Come meet us in Dubai’: the new offshoring of grand corruption – https://theconversation.com/come-meet-us-in-dubai-the-new-offshoring-of-grand-corruption-258434

  • Pallets are the backbone of global trade but supplies are threatened by theft, loss – and giant bonfires

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Liz Breen, Professor of Health Service Operations, School of Pharmacy & Medical Sciences, University of Bradford

    Craigyhill bonfire was declared the world’s tallest at a height of 203 feet (63 metres) in 2022. Thousands of pallets were used to build it. Stephen Barnes/Shutterstock

    Pallets don’t usually make headlines. But amid fresh controversy around the traditional July bonfires held in Northern Ireland this year, they’ve suddenly become a talking point. Wooden pallets used in these bonfires are popular due to their stacking ability, and also their colours – which include the red, white and blue of Britain.

    Ordinarily, pallets are used to transport products from manufacturers to retailers. But their numbers are shrinking due to theft and loss – and of course, they cost money to buy, store, use and replace. A study by one of us (Liz) in 2006 quoted a logistics firm that estimated 14 million pallets were generally missing throughout Europe, costing £140 million. And it’s an ongoing problem: millions of products such as pallets and packaging containers are still stolen each year across the continent.

    Just one bonfire in Larne, County Antrim, in July 2021 reportedly used 17,000 pallets in its construction. This year, police are investigating where the pallets used in the same community’s bonfire originated from. Amid speculation that some may belong to Australia-based supply chain firm Chep, that company has stated its pallets can never legally be bought, sold or destroyed.


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    Pallet losses can lead to logistical disruptions, delayed orders and bare shelves in supermarkets. And the impact is felt by pallet owners, manufacturers, customers and end-users alike.

    Pallets are big business. In the US, around 513 million – mainly wooden, some plastic – are produced each year. In 2021, 48.6 million wooden pallets were produced in the UK, up 8.3% from 2020.

    Rental companies can hold high numbers of pallets, which support the movement of “fast-moving” customer goods – including food, drinks and toiletries. North American firm Peco, for example, manages stock of over 20 million distinctive red wooden pallets across its 90 depots.

    Manufacturers rely on pallets being available to fulfil orders and distribute them to customers quickly. Also known as “returnable transit packaging”, they are valuable assets as they can be maintained and reused. They are usually owned by a pallet pooling agent, which must absorb the loss when they are not returned from customers.

    Why steal pallets?

    Good-condition pallets have a resale value. Both wood and plastic pallets can be deconstructed and sold as components to other industries. Some people even use them to create furniture for homes and gardens.

    Customers may feel these are legitimate upcycled products and won’t think to check where the pallets came from. However, some do have distinctive identification stamps that may remain in upcycled pallet products.

    The organised theft of these products takes its toll on companies. Cargo crime (which includes consumer goods and transportation pallets and containers) is said to cost the UK economy £700 million each year.

    If pallets are not available, production lines may be slowed down or stopped. And it may take longer to produce items, potentially leading to unnecessary transportation as well as greater fuel consumption and emissions.

    But it can also be challenging to map pallet movements and know, at any given time, how many are in transit, with retailers, or lost. Digital tracking solutions such as radio frequency identification can be expensive to implement and are not foolproof. This can make it easy for pallets to go “missing in action”.

    Pallets are a staple mechanism for stock to be received into retailers’ warehouses and distribution centres. Both the size of the pallets and their ownership can be colour-coded – at least some of the blue pallets making headlines this summer in Larne’s red, white and blue tower are thought to be owned by Chep. Warehouse bays are designed with specific pallets in mind – so changes to the pallets can bring extra costs.

    Similarly, replacing lost or stolen pallets comes at a price – which could ultimately be felt by consumers if these costs are passed on by retailers.

    Reducing theft and loss

    Pallet owners cannot afford to continue losing them to theft. Firms that are found using non-compliant or untracked pallets because they have bought them from unauthorised sources can face shipment fines, while other initiatives, such as deposit or voucher schemes or one-for-one exchange plans, could incentivise the return of pallets.

    These practices may influence corporate return behaviour, but the theft of pallets by organised crime gangs is increasing. Changing the materials used to construct pallets could reduce their financial attractiveness and resale value.

    At first glance, a used pallet might look no more useful than discarded wood and be considered fair game for reuse or selling on. But businesses or individuals who collect, sell or purchase stolen pallets are putting themselves at legal risk. Firms found stockpiling or selling-on pallets without permission have faced legal action and even jail in Europe.

    Aside from the legal implications, there are other operational and environmental costs. Each pallet taken out of circulation must be replaced, increasing demand for virgin timber, straining forest resources, and increasing labour costs.

    The humble pallet is the backbone of global trading, and businesses rely on a steady and dependable supply. Pallet services function only if they continue to circulate – but theft and losses undermine this. Without this simple product, everyone from producers to retailers and consumers could end up paying more for the goods they take for granted.

    The Conversation

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Pallets are the backbone of global trade but supplies are threatened by theft, loss – and giant bonfires – https://theconversation.com/pallets-are-the-backbone-of-global-trade-but-supplies-are-threatened-by-theft-loss-and-giant-bonfires-260948

  • Channel crossings: what is a safe and legal route?

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gillian McFadyen, Lecturer in International Politics, Aberystwyth University

    Since figures were first recorded in 2018, more than 170,000 people have crossed the Channel in small boats, hoping to claim asylum in the UK. Over 20,000 have crossed this year alone, and many dozens have died.

    Over the years, UK governments have tried a number of tactics – returns agreements, increased law enforcement, deportation schemes, and “smashing” organised smuggling gangs – to try and put an end to this dangerous practice. The latest attempt is the government’s new “one in, one out” pilot migration deal with France, which would see the UK accept some asylum seekers with legitimate claims to life in the UK, while sending an equivalent number back to France.




    Read more:
    How UK-France ‘one in, one out’ migration deal will work – and what the challenges could be


    Campaigners, academics and groups that support asylum seekers have long called for the UK to introduce “safe and legal routes”. They argue that this is the only way to reduce demand for unsafe Channel crossings. The logic is that people seeking protection are turning to smugglers and small boats because, for most, there are no other options to enter the UK and claim asylum.

    But what are these routes?


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    A safe and legal route is a scheme or journey approved by the UK government that allows people to enter the country without a visa in order to claim asylum. The 1951 refugee convention says that people have the right to claim asylum. But UK law requires someone to be physically present in the country to do so.

    A safe and legal route stresses that arriving irregularly – for instance, by crossing the Channel in a small boat – is illegal, even though the UN refugee convention is explicit that refugees should not be penalised for how they arrive to claim refuge.

    Does the UK have safe and legal routes?

    The UK has had safe and legal routes available for refugees in the recent past.

    Most schemes are restricted to certain populations and limited in accessibility. For example, two nationality-specific schemes for Afghans were set up in January 2022, after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban. These have resettled roughly 34,000 Afghans in the UK.

    The schemes prioritised those who had worked or assisted UK efforts in Afghanistan, as well as assisting vulnerable people such as women and girls at risk, and minority groups. Both routes are now shut.

    The UK also has schemes for Ukrainians and Hong Kongers. The Ukrainian schemes (Homes for Ukrainians and the now-closed Ukrainian Family Scheme), established in March 2022, have resettled 217,000 to the UK. The Hong Kong scheme is only eligible for British National Overseas status holders and their dependants. Most of these are not recognised, and nor do they identify, as refugees. Since opening in January 2021, 179,000 have been granted a visa to live in the UK.

    There is also the family reunion pathway for those already granted protection in the UK, who can invite spouses or other dependants to join them. This can be viewed as a safe route, but it is specifically for those already with status (refugee or otherwise) in the country. Importantly, those who gain access this way are not given refugee status in their own right, but granted leave to remain that is connected to their family member’s status.

    The UK has also worked closely with UNHCR, the UN refugee agency, since March 2021. The UNHCR identifies vulnerable candidates for resettlement direct from regions of conflict, primarily the Middle East and North Africa. This scheme highlights the value of safe and legal routes and the potential for developing a humane asylum route, but at present it is limited in scope, with only 3,798 people granted safe and dignified resettlement in the UK via this route.

    The prime minister, Keir Starmer, has stressed that the new pilot with France will be limited to people “who have not tried to enter the UK illegally” and who have a strong case for asylum in the UK – again highlighting the strict access and eligibility for this “safe and legal” route.

    White tents with UNHCR printed on them
    A refugee camp in Greece in 2016.
    Ververidis Vasilis/Shutterstock

    If we look at the map of international conflict today, the majority of people in conflict zones would be ineligible for these schemes. Afghans, Eritreans, Syrians, Iranian and Sudanese are some of the top nationalities arriving via the Channel crossing to the UK, but are provided with no safe or legal routes to sanctuary. Yet, in claiming asylum, 68% of small boat arrivals are ultimately granted status.

    Conflicts in Gaza, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan have not led to any bespoke humanitarian refugee protection rights from the UK. In practice, it is legally impossible for most asylum seekers to reach the UK via a safe and legal route as the schemes are so limited in scope.

    Smashing the gangs

    In January 2025, the Refugee Council, an organisation that supports asylum seekers and refugees in the UK, urged the UK to introduce a safe and legal route – in the form of a limited number of refugee visas – in order to stop deaths in the Channel.

    Between 2018 and April 2025, 147 people have died attempting to cross the Channel in small boats, with 2024 being the deadliest year for child migrant deaths.

    The UK government’s most recent approach has been to “smash the gangs” to prevent small boat crossings. But evidence shows that a criminal justice approach, while popular, ultimately leads smugglers to change their business practices – often jeopardising people further as they take longer routes or put more people into boats.

    More safe and legal routes would, on the other hand, reduce demand for smuggling across the Channel, by giving people another option.

    Crucially, even if the UK were to successfully “smash the gangs”, this does not eradicate peoples’ need for protection when fleeing war zones. Safe and legal routes would introduce a compassionate and humane refugee system which adheres with the UK’s obligations under international refugee law.

    The Conversation

    Gillian McFadyen receives funding from ACE Hub Wales, Public Health Wales for the project ‘A Welsh Pathways to Peace: Digital Storytelling and Forced Migration’ (2025-2026).

    ref. Channel crossings: what is a safe and legal route? – https://theconversation.com/channel-crossings-what-is-a-safe-and-legal-route-246931