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Category: Analysis

  • MIL-Evening Report: Japanese prime minister’s abrupt no-show at NATO summit reveals a strained alliance with the US

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Craig Mark, Adjunct Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Hosei University

    Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has sent a clear signal to the Trump administration: the Japan–US relationship is in a dire state.

    After saying just days ago he would be attending this week’s NATO summit at The Hague, Ishiba abruptly pulled out at the last minute.

    He joins two other leaders from the Indo-Pacific region, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, in skipping the summit.

    The Japanese media reported Ishiba cancelled the trip because a bilateral meeting with US President Donald Trump was unlikely, as was a meeting of the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) NATO partners (Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Japan).

    Japan will still be represented by Foreign Minister Takeshi Iwaya, showing its desire to strengthen its security relationship with NATO.

    However, Ishiba’s no-show reveals how Japan views its relationship with the Trump administration, following the severe tariffs Washington imposed on Japan and Trump’s mixed messages on the countries’ decades-long military alliance.

    Tariffs and diplomatic disagreements

    Trump’s tariff policy is at the core of the divide between the US and Japan.

    Ishiba attempted to get relations with the Trump administration off to a good start. He was the second world leader to visit Trump at the White House, after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

    However, Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed a punitive rate of 25% on Japanese cars and 24% on all other Japanese imports. They are already having an adverse impact on Japan’s economy: exports of automobiles to the US dropped in May by 25% compared to a year ago.

    Six rounds of negotiations have made little progress, as Ishiba’s government insists on full tariff exemptions.

    Japan has been under pressure from the Trump administration to increase its defence spending, as well. According to the Financial Times, Tokyo cancelled a summit between US and Japanese defence and foreign ministers over the demand. (A Japanese official denied the report.)

    Japan also did not offer its full support to the US bombings of Iran’s nuclear facilities earlier this week. The foreign minister instead said Japan “understands” the US’s determination to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.

    Japan has traditionally had fairly good relations with Iran, often acting as an indirect bridge with the West. Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe even made a visit there in 2019.

    Japan also remains heavily dependent on oil from the Middle East. It would have been adversely affected if the Strait of Hormuz had been blocked, as Iran was threatening to do.

    Unlike the response from the UK and Australia, which both supported the strikes, the Ishiba government prioritised its commitment to upholding international law and the rules-based global order. In doing so, Japan seeks to deny China, Russia and North Korea any leeway to similarly erode global norms on the use of force and territorial aggression.

    Strategic dilemma of the Japan–US military alliance

    In addition, Japan is facing the same dilemma as other American allies – how to manage relations with the “America first” Trump administration, which has made the US an unreliable ally.

    Earlier this year, Trump criticised the decades-old security alliance between the US and Japan, calling it “one-sided”.

    “If we’re ever attacked, they don’t have to do a thing to protect us,” he said of Japan.

    Lower-level security cooperation is ongoing between the two allies and their regional partners. The US, Japanese and Philippine Coast Guards conducted drills in Japanese waters this week. The US military may also assist with upgrading Japan’s counterstrike missile capabilities.

    But Japan is still likely to continue expanding its security ties with partners beyond the US, such as NATO, the European Union, India, the Philippines, Vietnam and other ASEAN members, while maintaining its fragile rapprochement with South Korea.

    Australia is now arguably Japan’s most reliable security partner. Canberra is considering buying Japan’s Mogami-class frigates for the Royal Australian Navy. And if the AUKUS agreement with the US and UK collapses, Japanese submarines could be a replacement.

    Ishiba under domestic political pressure

    There are also intensifying domestic political pressures on Ishiba to hold firm against Trump, who is deeply unpopular among the Japanese public.

    After replacing former prime minister Fumio Kishida as leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) last September, the party lost its majority in the lower house of parliament in snap elections. This made it dependent on minor parties for legislative support.

    Ishiba’s minority government has struggled ever since with poor opinion polling. There has been widespread discontent with inflation, the high cost of living and stagnant wages, the legacy of LDP political scandals, and ever-worsening geopolitical uncertainty.

    On Sunday, the party suffered its worst-ever result in elections for the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly, winning its lowest number of seats.

    The party could face a similar drubbing in the election for half of the upper house of the Diet (Japan’s parliament) on July 20. Ishiba has pledged to maintain the LDP’s majority in the house with its junior coalition partner Komeito. But if the government falls into minority status in both houses, Ishiba will face heavy pressure to step down.

    Craig Mark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Japanese prime minister’s abrupt no-show at NATO summit reveals a strained alliance with the US – https://theconversation.com/japanese-prime-ministers-abrupt-no-show-at-nato-summit-reveals-a-strained-alliance-with-the-us-259694

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bats get fat to survive hard times. But climate change is threatening their survival strategy

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nicholas Wu, Lecturer in Wildlife Ecology, Murdoch University

    Rudmer Zwerver/Shutterstock

    Bats are often cast as the unseen night-time stewards of nature, flitting through the dark to control pest insects, pollinate plants and disperse seeds. But behind their silent contributions lies a remarkable and underappreciated survival strategy: seasonal fattening.

    Much like bears and squirrels, bats around the world bulk up to get through hard times – even in places where you might not expect it.

    In a paper published today in Ecology Letters, we analysed data from bat studies around the world to understand how bats use body fat to survive seasonal challenges, whether it’s a freezing winter or a dry spell.

    The surprising conclusion? Seasonal fattening is a global phenomenon in bats, not just limited to those in cold climates.

    Even bats in the tropics, where it’s warm all year, store fat in anticipation of dry seasons when food becomes scarce. That’s a survival strategy that’s been largely overlooked. But it may be faltering as the climate changes, putting entire food webs at risk.

    Climate shapes fattening strategies

    We found bats in colder regions predictably gain more weight before winter.

    But in warmer regions with highly seasonal rainfall, such as tropical savannas or monsoonal forests, bats also fatten up. In tropical areas, it’s not cold that’s the enemy, but the dry season, when flowers wither, insects vanish and energy is hard to come by.

    The extent of fattening is impressive. Some species increased their body weight by more than 50%, which is a huge burden for flying animals that already use a lot of energy to move around. This highlights the delicate balancing act bats perform between storing energy and staying nimble in the air.

    Sex matters, especially in the cold

    The results also support the “thrifty females, frisky males” hypothesis.

    In colder climates, female bats used their fat reserves more sparingly than males – a likely adaptation to ensure they have enough energy left to raise young when spring returns. Since females typically emerge from hibernation to raise their young, conserving fat through winter can directly benefit their reproductive success.

    Interestingly, this sex-based difference vanished in warmer climates, where fat use by males and females was more similar, likely because more food is available in warmer climates. It’s another clue that climate patterns intricately shape behaviour and physiology.

    Climate change is shifting the rules

    Beyond the biology, our study points to a more sobering trend. Bats in warm regions appear to be increasing their fat stores over time. This could be an early warning sign of how climate change is affecting their survival.

    Climate change isn’t just about rising temperatures. It’s also making seasons more unpredictable.

    Bats may be storing more energy in advance of dry seasons that are becoming longer or harder to predict. That’s risky, because it means more foraging, more exposure to predators and potentially greater mortality.

    The implications can ripple outward. Bats help regulate insect populations, fertilise crops and maintain healthy ecosystems. If their survival strategies falter, entire food webs could feel the effects.

    Fat bats, fragile futures

    Our study changes how we think about bats. They are not just passive victims of environmental change but active strategists, finely tuned to seasonal rhythms. Yet their ability to adapt has limits, and those limits are being tested by a rapidly changing world.

    By understanding how bats respond to climate, we gain insights into broader ecosystem resilience. We also gain a deeper appreciation for one of nature’s quiet heroes – fattening up, flying through the night and holding ecosystems together, one wingbeat at a time.

    Nicholas Wu was the lead author of a funded Australian Research Council Linkage Grant awarded to Christopher Turbill at Western Sydney University.

    – ref. Bats get fat to survive hard times. But climate change is threatening their survival strategy – https://theconversation.com/bats-get-fat-to-survive-hard-times-but-climate-change-is-threatening-their-survival-strategy-259560

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Nearly half of Kiwis oppose automatic citizenship for Cook Islands, says poll

    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist

    A new poll by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union shows that almost half of respondents oppose the Cook Islands having automatic New Zealand citizenship.

    Thirty percent of the 1000-person sample supported Cook Islanders retaining citizenship, 46 percent were opposed and 24 percent were unsure.

    The question asked:

    • The Cook Islands government is pursuing closer strategic ties with China, ignoring New Zealand’s wishes and not consulting with the New Zealand government. Given this, should the Cook Islands continue to enjoy automatic access to New Zealand passports, citizenship, health care and education when its government pursues a foreign policy against the wishes of the New Zealand government?
    • READ MORE: Other Cook Islands reports

    Taxpayers’ Union head of communications Tory Relf said the framing of the question was “fair”.

    “If the Cook Islands wants to continue enjoying a close relationship with New Zealand, then, of course, we will support that,” he said.

    “However, if they are looking in a different direction, then I think it is entirely fair that taxpayers can have a right to say whether they want their money sent there or not.”

    But New Zealand Labour Party deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni said it was a “leading question”.

    ‘Dead end’ assumption
    “It asserts or assumes that we have hit a dead end here and that we cannot resolve the relationship issues that have unfolded between New Zealand and the Cook Islands,” Sepuloni said.

    “We want a resolution. We do not want to assume or assert that it is all done and dusted and the relationship is broken.”

    The two nations have been in free association since 1965.

    Relf said that adding historical context of the two countries relationship would be a different question.

    “We were polling on the Cook Islands current policy, asking about historic ties would introduce an emotive element that would influence the response.”

    New Zealand has paused nearly $20 million in development assistance to the realm nation.

    Foreign Minister Winston Peters said the decision was made because the Cook Islands failed to adequately inform his government about several agreements signed with Beijing in February.

    ‘An extreme response’
    Sepuloni, who is also Labour’s Pacific Peoples spokesperson, said her party agreed with the government that the Cook Islands had acted outside of the free association agreement.

    “[The aid pause is] an extreme response, however, in saying that we don’t have all of the information in front of us that the government have. I’m very mindful that in terms of pausing or stopping aid, the scenarios where I can recall that happening are scenarios like when Fiji was having their coup.”

    In response to questions from Cook Islands News, Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown said that, while he acknowledged the concerns raised in the recent poll, he believed it was important to place the discussion within the full context of Cook Islands’ longstanding and unique relationship with New Zealand.

    “The Cook Islands and New Zealand share a deep, enduring constitutional bond underpinned by shared history, family ties, and mutual responsibility,” Brown told the Rarotonga-based newspaper.

    “Cook Islanders are New Zealand citizens not by privilege, but by right. A right rooted in decades of shared sacrifice, contribution, and identity.

    “More than 100,000 Cook Islanders live in New Zealand, contributing to its economy, culture, and communities. In return, our people have always looked to New Zealand not just as a partner but as family.”

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Melanesian Spearhead Group leaders discuss Middle East conflict before ceasefire

    RNZ Pacific

    Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape says the Middle East conflict was one of the discussions of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG) in Suva this week — and Pacific leaders “took note of what is happening”.

    The Post-Courier reports Marape saying the “12 Day War” between Israel and Iran was based on high technology and using missiles sent from great distances.

    “In the context of MSG, the leaders want peace always. And the Pacific remains friends to all, enemies to none,” he said.

    He said an effect on PNG would be the inflation in prices of oil and gas.

    Yesterday morning, US President Donald Trump declared a ceasefire had been agreed  between Israel and Iran, and so far it has been holding in spite of tensions.

    Australia had stepped in to help Papua New Guinea diplomats and citizens caught in the Middle East.

    Foreign Affairs Minister Justin Tkatchenko confirmed last week that a group was to be evacuated through Jordan.

    There had been six diplomats in lockdown at the PNG embassy in Jerusalem awaiting extraction.

    Meanwhile, a repatriation flight for Australians stuck in Israel had been cancelled.

    ABC News reported that it was the second day repatriation plans were scrapped at the last minute because of rocket fire. A bus meant to take people across the border into Jordan was cancelled the previous day.

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A chance discovery of a 350 million-year-old fossil reveals a new type of ray-finned fish

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Conrad Daniel Mackenzie Wilson, PhD candidate in Earth Sciences, Carleton University

    An artist’s rendition of the newly discovered fish, _Sphyragnathus tyche_. (C. Wilson), CC BY

    In 2015, two members of the Blue Beach Fossil Museum in Nova Scotia found a long, curved fossil jaw, bristling with teeth. Sonja Wood, the museum’s owner, and Chris Mansky, the museum’s curator, found the fossil in a creek after Wood had a hunch.

    The fossil they found belonged to a fish that had died 350 million years ago, its bony husk spanning nearly a metre on the lake bed. The large fish had lived in waters thick with rival fish, including giants several times its size. It had hooked teeth at the tip of its long jaw that it would use to trap elusive prey and fangs at the back to pierce it and break it down to eat.

    For the last eight years, I have been part of a team under the lead of paleontologist Jason Anderson, who has spent decades researching the Blue Beach area of Nova Scotia, northwest of Halifax, in collaboration with Mansky and other colleagues. Much of this work has been on the tetrapods — the group that includes the first vertebrates to move to land and all their descendants — but my research focuses on what Blue Beach fossils can tell us about how the modern vertebrate world formed.

    Blue Beach Fossil Museum curator Chris Mansky below the fossil cliffs.
    (C. Wilson), CC BY

    Birth of the modern vertebrate world

    The modern vertebrate world is defined by the dominance of three groups: the cartilaginous fishes or chondrichthyans (including sharks, rays and chimaeras), the lobe-finned fishes or sarcopterygians (including tetrapods and rare lungfishes and coelacanths), and the ray-finned fishes or actinopterygians (including everything from sturgeon to tuna). Only a few jawless fishes round out the picture.

    This basic grouping has remained remarkably consistent — at least for the last 350 million years.

    Before then, the vertebrate world was a lot more crowded. In the ancient vertebrate world, during the Silurian Period (443.7-419.2 MA) for example, the ancestors of modern vertebrates swam alongside spiny pseudo-sharks (acanthodians), fishy sarcopterygians, placoderms and jawless fishes with bony shells.

    Armoured jawless fishes had dwindled by the Late Devonian Period (419.2-358.9 MA), but the rest were still diverse. Actinopterygians were still restricted to a few species with similar body shapes.

    By the immediately succeeding early Carboniferous times, everything had changed. The placoderms were gone, the number of species of fishy sarcopterygians and acanthodians had cratered, and actinopterygians and chondrichthyans were flourishing in their place.

    The modern vertebrate world was born.

    A shortnose chimaera, belonging to the chondrichthyan group of vertebrates.
    (Shutterstock)

    A sea change

    Blue Beach has helped build our understanding of how this happened. Studies describing its tetrapods and actinopterygians have showed the persistence of Devonian-style forms in the Carboniferous Period.

    Whereas the abrupt end-Devonian decline of the placoderms, acanthodians and fishy sarcopterygians can be explained by a mass extinction, it now appears that multiple types of actinopterygians and tetrapods survived to be preserved at Blue Beach. This makes a big difference to the overall story: Devonian-style tetrapods and actinopterygians survive and contribute to the evolution of these groups into the Carboniferous Period.

    But significant questions remain for paleontologists. One point of debate revolves around how actinopterygians diversified as the modern vertebrate world was born — whether they explored new ways of feeding or swimming first.

    Comparing the jawbones of Sphyragnathus, Austelliscus and Tegeolepis.
    (C. Wilson), CC BY

    The Blue Beach fossil was actinopterygian, and we wondered what it could tell us about this issue. Comparison was difficult. Two actinopterygians with long jaws and large fangs were known from the preceding Devonian Period (Austelliscus ferox and Tegeolepis clarki), but the newly found jaw had more extreme curvature and the arrangement of its teeth. Its largest fangs are at the back of its jaw, but the largest fangs of Austelliscus and Tegeolepis are at the front.

    These differences were significant enough that we created a new genus and species: Sphyragnathus tyche. And, in view of the debate on actinopterygian diversification, we made a prediction: that the differences in anatomy between Sphyragnathus and Devonian actinopterygians represented different adaptations for feeding.

    Front fangs

    To test this prediction, we compared Sphyragnathus, Austelliscus and Tegeolepis to living actinopterygians. In modern actinopterygians, the difference in anatomy reflects a difference in function: front-fangs capture prey with their front teeth and grip it with their back teeth, but back-fangs use their back teeth.

    Since we couldn’t observe the fossil fish in action, we analyzed the stress their teeth would experience if we applied force. The back teeth of Sphyragnathus handled force with low stress, making them suited for a role in piercing prey, but the back teeth of Austelliscus and Tegeolepis turned low forces into significantly higher stress, making them best suited for gripping.

    We concluded that Sphyragnathus was the earliest actinopterygian adapted for breaking down prey by piercing, which also matches the broader predictions of the feeding-first hypothesis.

    Substantial work remains — only the jaw of Sphyragnathus is preserved, so the “locomotion-first” hypothesis was untested. But this represents the challenge and promise of paleontology: get enough tantalizing glimpses into the past and you can begin to unfold a history.

    As for the actinopterygians, research indicates they survived and diversified during Devonian times and had shifting roles during the birth of the modern vertebrate world — at least until more fossils are found that could determine whether that’s the case.

    Conrad Daniel Mackenzie Wilson receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Ontario Student Assistance Program, and the Society of Vertebrate Paleontology.

    – ref. A chance discovery of a 350 million-year-old fossil reveals a new type of ray-finned fish – https://theconversation.com/a-chance-discovery-of-a-350-million-year-old-fossil-reveals-a-new-type-of-ray-finned-fish-254246

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ceasefires like the one between Iran and Israel often fail – but an agreement with specific conditions is more likely to hold

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Donald Heflin, Executive Director of the Edward R. Murrow Center and Senior Fellow of Diplomatic Practice, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

    President Donald Trump speaks to reporters outside the White House on June 24, 2025, in Washington, less than 12 hours after announcing a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    Within hours of President Donald Trump unexpectedly announcing an upcoming ceasefire between Israel and Iran on June 23, 2025, both countries launched airstrikes against the other.

    “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f–k they’re doing,” an angry and frustrated Trump told reporters outside the White House on June 24.

    While Iran and Israel have tentatively agreed to the truce – and Trump reiterated on June 24 that the “ceasefire is in effect” – it is not clear whether this deal can hold. Some research shows that an estimated 80% of ceasefire deals worldwide fail.

    Amy Lieberman, a politics and society editor at The Conversation U.S., spoke with former Ambassador Donald Heflin, an American career diplomat who serves as the executive director of the Edward R. Murrow Center at the Fletcher School, Tufts University, to understand how ceasefires typically work – and how the Israel-Iran deal stacks up against other agreements to end wars.

    An excavator removes debris from a residential building that was destroyed in Israel’s June 13, 2025, airstrike on Tehran, Iran.
    Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

    How do ceasefire deals typically happen?

    There are classes taught on how to negotiate ceasefires, but it is ad hoc with each situation.

    For example, in one scenario, one of the warring parties wants a ceasefire and has decided that the conflict isn’t going well. The second party might not want a ceasefire, but could agree that it is getting tired or the risks are too high, and agrees to work something out.

    The next scenario, which leads to more success, is when both parties want a ceasefire. They decide that the loss of life and money has gone too far for both sides. One of the parties approaches the other through intermediaries to say it wants a ceasefire, and the other warring party agrees.

    In a third situation – which is what we are seeing with the Iran-Israel deal – the outside world imposes a ceasefire. Trump likely told both Israel and Iran: Look, it’s enough. This is too dangerous for the rest of the world. We don’t care what you think. Time for a ceasefire.“

    The U.S. has done this in the Middle East before, like after the Yom Kippur War in 1973 between Israel and a coalition of Arab countries led by Egypt and Syria. Israel was achieving big military victories, but the risk was pretty great for the world. The U.S. came in and said, “That’s enough, stop it now.” And it worked.

    Does the US bring the warring parties to a table in this kind of situation, or simply pressure the countries to stop fighting?

    It is more of the U.S. saying, “We are done.” When the U.S. does something like this, it is often going to have backup from the European Union and other countries like Qatar, saying, “The Americans are right. It is time for a ceasefire.”

    It appears that this Israel-Iran deal does not have specific conditions attached to it. Is that typical of a ceasefire deal?

    This deal doesn’t seem to have any specific details attached to it. Ceasefires work better when they have that. Lasting ceasefires need to address the concerns of the warring parties and give each side some of what it wants.

    For instance, in the Ukraine and Russia war, we have not seen either one of those countries push for a ceasefire. Part of the problem is Crimea and eastern Ukraine, sections of land in Ukraine that Russia has annexed and claims as its own. Russia would be happy with a deal that puts it in charge of Crimea and Ukraine, but Ukraine won’t agree to that. The question of who controls specific areas of land has to be addressed in this conflict; otherwise, the ceasefire isn’t going to last.

    Search and rescue efforts continue in a building in Beersheba, Israel, hit by a ballistic missile fired from Iran shortly before the ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump came into effect on June 24, 2025.
    Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images)

    Who is responsible for ensuring that both sides uphold a ceasefire?

    Security guarantees are an important part of negotiating and maintaining long-term ceasefires. Big countries like the U.S. could say that if a warring party violates a ceasefire agreement, they are going to punish them.

    In the 1990s, the U.S. and Europe assured Ukraine that if it gave up its nuclear arsenal, the U.S. would defend Ukraine if Russia ever invaded it. Russia has invaded Ukraine twice since then, in 2014 and 2022. The U.S. gave a more substantial response in the form of sending weapons and other war materials to Ukraine after the 2022 invasion, but there have been no real consequences for Russia.

    That has created a problem for ceasefires in the future, because the U.S. didn’t deliver on its past security guarantees.

    The further away you get from Europe, the less interested the West is in wars. But in those kinds of disputes, United Nations and other international peacekeeping troops can be sent in. Sometimes, that can work brilliantly in one place, like with the example of international peacekeeping troops called the multilateral Observer Mission stationed between Israel and Egypt helping maintain peace between those countries. But you can copy it to another place and it just doesn’t work as well.

    How does this ceasefire fit within the history of other ceasefires?

    It’s too early to tell. What matters is how the details get fleshed out.

    Ideally, you can get representatives of the Israeli and Iranian governments to sit around a conference table to reach a detailed agreement. The Israelis might say, “We have got to have some kind of assurances that Iran is not going to use a nuclear weapon.” And the Iranians could say, “Assassinations of our military generals and scientists has got to stop.” That kind of conversation and agreement is what is missing, thus far, in this process.

    Why is it so common for ceasefire deals to fail?

    Some ceasefire deals don’t get to the underlying conditions of what really caused the problem and what made people start shooting this time around. If you don’t get to the core issues of a conflict, you are putting a Band-Aid on the situation. Putting a Band-Aid on someone when they are bleeding is a good move, but you ultimately might need more than that to stop the bleeding.

    The outside world might be pretty happy with a ceasefire deal that seems to stop the fighting, but if the details are not ironed out, the experts would say, “This isn’t going to last.”

    Donald Heflin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ceasefires like the one between Iran and Israel often fail – but an agreement with specific conditions is more likely to hold – https://theconversation.com/ceasefires-like-the-one-between-iran-and-israel-often-fail-but-an-agreement-with-specific-conditions-is-more-likely-to-hold-259739

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ceasefires like the one between Iran and Israel often fail – but an agreement with specific conditions is more likely to hold

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Donald Heflin, Executive Director of the Edward R. Murrow Center and Senior Fellow of Diplomatic Practice, The Fletcher School, Tufts University

    President Donald Trump speaks to reporters outside the White House on June 24, 2025, in Washington, less than 12 hours after announcing a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    Within hours of President Donald Trump unexpectedly announcing an upcoming ceasefire between Israel and Iran on June 23, 2025, both countries launched airstrikes against the other.

    “We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the f–k they’re doing,” an angry and frustrated Trump told reporters outside the White House on June 24.

    While Iran and Israel have tentatively agreed to the truce – and Trump reiterated on June 24 that the “ceasefire is in effect” – it is not clear whether this deal can hold. Some research shows that an estimated 80% of ceasefire deals worldwide fail.

    Amy Lieberman, a politics and society editor at The Conversation U.S., spoke with former Ambassador Donald Heflin, an American career diplomat who serves as the executive director of the Edward R. Murrow Center at the Fletcher School, Tufts University, to understand how ceasefires typically work – and how the Israel-Iran deal stacks up against other agreements to end wars.

    An excavator removes debris from a residential building that was destroyed in Israel’s June 13, 2025, airstrike on Tehran, Iran.
    Majid Saeedi/Getty Images

    How do ceasefire deals typically happen?

    There are classes taught on how to negotiate ceasefires, but it is ad hoc with each situation.

    For example, in one scenario, one of the warring parties wants a ceasefire and has decided that the conflict isn’t going well. The second party might not want a ceasefire, but could agree that it is getting tired or the risks are too high, and agrees to work something out.

    The next scenario, which leads to more success, is when both parties want a ceasefire. They decide that the loss of life and money has gone too far for both sides. One of the parties approaches the other through intermediaries to say it wants a ceasefire, and the other warring party agrees.

    In a third situation – which is what we are seeing with the Iran-Israel deal – the outside world imposes a ceasefire. Trump likely told both Israel and Iran: Look, it’s enough. This is too dangerous for the rest of the world. We don’t care what you think. Time for a ceasefire.“

    The U.S. has done this in the Middle East before, like after the Yom Kippur War in 1973 between Israel and a coalition of Arab countries led by Egypt and Syria. Israel was achieving big military victories, but the risk was pretty great for the world. The U.S. came in and said, “That’s enough, stop it now.” And it worked.

    Does the US bring the warring parties to a table in this kind of situation, or simply pressure the countries to stop fighting?

    It is more of the U.S. saying, “We are done.” When the U.S. does something like this, it is often going to have backup from the European Union and other countries like Qatar, saying, “The Americans are right. It is time for a ceasefire.”

    It appears that this Israel-Iran deal does not have specific conditions attached to it. Is that typical of a ceasefire deal?

    This deal doesn’t seem to have any specific details attached to it. Ceasefires work better when they have that. Lasting ceasefires need to address the concerns of the warring parties and give each side some of what it wants.

    For instance, in the Ukraine and Russia war, we have not seen either one of those countries push for a ceasefire. Part of the problem is Crimea and eastern Ukraine, sections of land in Ukraine that Russia has annexed and claims as its own. Russia would be happy with a deal that puts it in charge of Crimea and Ukraine, but Ukraine won’t agree to that. The question of who controls specific areas of land has to be addressed in this conflict; otherwise, the ceasefire isn’t going to last.

    Search and rescue efforts continue in a building in Beersheba, Israel, hit by a ballistic missile fired from Iran shortly before the ceasefire announced by U.S. President Donald Trump came into effect on June 24, 2025.
    Mostafa Alkharouf/Anadolu via Getty Images)

    Who is responsible for ensuring that both sides uphold a ceasefire?

    Security guarantees are an important part of negotiating and maintaining long-term ceasefires. Big countries like the U.S. could say that if a warring party violates a ceasefire agreement, they are going to punish them.

    In the 1990s, the U.S. and Europe assured Ukraine that if it gave up its nuclear arsenal, the U.S. would defend Ukraine if Russia ever invaded it. Russia has invaded Ukraine twice since then, in 2014 and 2022. The U.S. gave a more substantial response in the form of sending weapons and other war materials to Ukraine after the 2022 invasion, but there have been no real consequences for Russia.

    That has created a problem for ceasefires in the future, because the U.S. didn’t deliver on its past security guarantees.

    The further away you get from Europe, the less interested the West is in wars. But in those kinds of disputes, United Nations and other international peacekeeping troops can be sent in. Sometimes, that can work brilliantly in one place, like with the example of international peacekeeping troops called the multilateral Observer Mission stationed between Israel and Egypt helping maintain peace between those countries. But you can copy it to another place and it just doesn’t work as well.

    How does this ceasefire fit within the history of other ceasefires?

    It’s too early to tell. What matters is how the details get fleshed out.

    Ideally, you can get representatives of the Israeli and Iranian governments to sit around a conference table to reach a detailed agreement. The Israelis might say, “We have got to have some kind of assurances that Iran is not going to use a nuclear weapon.” And the Iranians could say, “Assassinations of our military generals and scientists has got to stop.” That kind of conversation and agreement is what is missing, thus far, in this process.

    Why is it so common for ceasefire deals to fail?

    Some ceasefire deals don’t get to the underlying conditions of what really caused the problem and what made people start shooting this time around. If you don’t get to the core issues of a conflict, you are putting a Band-Aid on the situation. Putting a Band-Aid on someone when they are bleeding is a good move, but you ultimately might need more than that to stop the bleeding.

    The outside world might be pretty happy with a ceasefire deal that seems to stop the fighting, but if the details are not ironed out, the experts would say, “This isn’t going to last.”

    Donald Heflin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ceasefires like the one between Iran and Israel often fail – but an agreement with specific conditions is more likely to hold – https://theconversation.com/ceasefires-like-the-one-between-iran-and-israel-often-fail-but-an-agreement-with-specific-conditions-is-more-likely-to-hold-259739

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Video games can help trans players feel seen and safe. It all starts with design

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Phoebe Toups Dugas, Associate Professor of Human-Centred Computing, Monash University

    Shano Liang

    There is a comfort in finding and being yourself. Video games offer opportunities for this comfort. They allow people to exist in safe spaces, to develop community, and to explore the self – as well as the potential self.

    Our recently published study explores how video games can elicit feelings of gender euphoria for transgender people. This could be a result of a player developing a connection with a character they feel represented by. Or, they may simply appreciate the experience of a world in which they exist as their actual gender.

    Far from just providing an escape, our research shows video games can play a major role in fostering inclusion for trans people, and in promoting the joy of being trans.

    Why gender euphoria matters

    Much of the discourse around transgender and gender diverse identities is damage-centred. People have come to understand transness through a medicalised lens that emphasises gender dysphoria.

    Gender “dysphoria” refers to a person’s feelings of disconnection and dissatisfaction with their experience of gender, whether it’s their body, how others treat them, or how they present themselves to the world. For further reading, we recommend The Gender Dysphoria Bible (an online community resource), or Susan Stryker’s book Transgender History.

    Gender “euphoria” refers to feelings of excitement, completeness and affirmation that come when someone truly experiences their gender identity. For cisgender people, gender euphoria is often unremarkable. But for transgender people, discovering this feeling – especially in a hostile world – can be profound and lifesaving.

    In Cyberpunk 2077, Claire’s car interior displays the trans pride flag, signalling to the player that her identity is not a secret, nor a source of shame.
    Michelle Cormier/Monash University, CC BY-SA

    While gender “euphoria” is an old term used by the trans community to understand the potential for happiness, researchers have only recently begun studying it.

    As a group of longtime gamers and trans people, we knew of many games that offered this experience to us. And as researchers and game designers, we had the tools to tease apart these games to understand what makes them meaningful.

    Our study contributes language and a framework for analysing gender euphoria in video games. We hope it will help with developing games that are more inclusive and meaningful for trans players.

    A reflexive thematic analysis

    We used a qualitative research method called reflexive thematic analysis, which involves drawing from one’s own experiences as a source of data that frames the analysis.

    We developed a list of games that were known for trans themes, and/or authored by trans designers, and/or which we had personally found comfort in playing. The list included both indie and mainstream games, such as Cyberpunk 2077, Anna Anthropy’s dys4ia, Animal Crossing: New Horizons and Celeste.

    While analysing the games, we looked at the art, narratives, choices offered to players, and how characters were represented.

    We also identified various “themes” relating to trans experiences which were common among the games. We organised these themes into the categories of design, dynamics and experiences, building on prior design theory.

    A three-pronged framework

    Design elements are what the game maker creates, such as the main story, or how you can manipulate a character. Certain games can be designed in a way that normalises transgender people, such as by offering a range of gender expressions for players, or by allowing trans identity disclosure during play.

    In the game Celeste, the trans pride flag behind Madeline’s computer, and the pill bottle beside her bed, are intentional design choices that help the player understand Madeline’s identity.
    Michelle Cormier/Monash University, CC BY-SA

    The dynamics of a game refer to how it unfolds as a result of the design and players’ decisions. Dynamics, for instance, might address how players come to discover a trans character, or how they might encounter pain and healing through the story.

    And experiences are the emotions players feel as a result of playing, such as the excitement of finishing a level, or sadness over the loss of a beloved character. For trans players, gender euphoric experiences centre on the self and how it relates to the broader world.

    Although it has some issues with trans representation, the game Cyberpunk 2077 is a good example for understanding how we sorted our themes into these three categories.

    The character Claire Russel is designed as a woman street racer, whose trans identity is not made explicit. The player’s interactions with Claire create certain dynamics, after which her character confides she is transgender. This offers the player the experience of having comfortable interactions with a transgender character, and of understanding how the character relates to the larger game world.

    During an emotionally charged scene, Claire speaks candidly to the player about her past.
    Michelle Cormier/Monash University, CC BY-SA

    Unexpectedly, we found expressions of pain (including gender dysphoria) were an important aspect of some of the trans-inclusive games we analysed.

    The games created gender euphoric experiences for players by acknowledging the painful parts of the transgender experience, and then providing opportunities to resolve or live through them.

    Moving towards trans-inclusivity

    Of course, there is more to do. While our reflexive analysis centred trans-femme experiences, there is a range of gender identities out there. More work is needed to see what other designs, dynamics and experiences should be on offer for trans players.

    Gender euphoria is a salve to the unnecessary pain the world brings to trans people. It is therefore a worthy design goal – not just in video games, but in all kinds of interactive systems.

    If we want trans joy in the world, we will have to design for it.

    Phoebe Toups Dugas is affiliated with Monash University and is undertaking volunteer work with Transgender Victoria.

    Michelle Cormier is affiliated with Monash University and is managing a community project for Transgender Victoria as a volunteer.

    – ref. Video games can help trans players feel seen and safe. It all starts with design – https://theconversation.com/video-games-can-help-trans-players-feel-seen-and-safe-it-all-starts-with-design-257901

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The ancients also had to deal with a cost-of-living crisis. Here’s how they managed

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Konstantine Panegyres, Lecturer in Classics and Ancient History, The University of Western Australia

    Louis Le Brun, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY

    Talk to anyone today, and they will probably have something to say about how expensive life has become. While the rate of inflation has slowed, prices for many goods and services are still much higher than pre-pandemic.

    Cost-of-living crises are not new. They have occurred at various times and places throughout the millennia.

    If we look at cost-of-living pressures in ancient Greek and Roman times and how people back then dealt with them, we can learn something about how to face our own issues.

    ‘The price of land has gone up’

    The cost of living was a conversation topic in antiquity, especially the price of land and food.

    The Roman writer Pliny the Younger (circa 61–113 CE) in one of his letters remarked to his friend about the rising cost of real estate:

    Have you heard that the price of land has gone up, particularly in the neighbourhood of Rome? The reason for the sudden increase in price has given rise to a good deal of discussion.

    The ancient Greek scholar Athenaeus, who lived in Naukratis, in Egypt, around 200 CE, wrote a long book called The Learned Banqueters, depicting a dinner party.

    The characters at this dinner party often complain about the price of food and goods. For example, one character complains about the price of fish:

    I don’t think I’ve ever seen fish more expensive. Poseidon, if you got 10% of what’s spent on them every day, you’d be far away the richest god there is!

    People often said that fish was exorbitantly expensive and thought fish sellers were trying to rip them off.

    In fact, the poet Antiphanes (circa 408–330 BCE) complained “there’s no group more abominable” than fish sellers and money lenders.

    How to lower costs?

    Ancient people were well aware that a cost-of-living crisis can cause political disturbances.

    As the Roman poet Lucan (39–65 CE) wrote:

    the causes of hatred and mainsprings of political popularity are determined by the price of food.

    So, how did ancient leaders deal with this sort of problem?

    One solution was for the ruler to cover the cost of inflation.

    For example, the Athenian statesman Demosthenes (384–322 BCE) mentions a problem with the price of grain that was solved by boosting imports:

    When grain earlier advanced in price and reached sixteen drachmae per medimnus, we imported more than ten thousand medimni of wheat, and measured it out at the normal price of five drachmae a medimnus.

    Alexander Severus helped trim the cost of meat.
    Creative commons, CC BY

    Another solution was to put extreme regulations on the market.

    For example, the Roman emperor Alexander Severus (ruled 222–235 CE) was once faced by a group of angry citizens.

    They demanded a reduction in the price of beef and pork, which had become unaffordable.

    Alexander Severus “did not proclaim a general reduction in prices”, says the anonymous biographer who recounts this anecdote. Instead, the emperor

    ordered that no one should slaughter a sow or a suckling pig, a cow, or a calf. In two years or even in little more than one year, there was such an abundance of pork and beef that while a pound previously cost eight minutili, the price of both these meats was reduced to two and even one per pound.

    The city is so expensive

    The Greek writer Plutarch of Chaeronea (46–119 CE) records a story about the famous philosopher Socrates (circa 470–399 BCE), who lived in Athens.

    One day, according to Plutarch, a friend of Socrates complained to him about “how expensive the city was”:

    Chian wine costs a mina, a purple robe three minae, a half-pint of honey five drachmas!

    In response, Socrates took his friend by the hand and told him to search for bargains or for cheaper items, saying:

    A sleeveless vest for ten drachmas! The city is cheap!

    Socrates’ point was that even in expensive times it’s still possible to find bargains to save money. You just have to look harder for them and lower your standard of living. It can be difficult to do that, but it’s necessary.

    Socrates also gave out employment advice for people who were struggling.

    According to Socrates’ friend, the historian Xenophon of Athens (430–350 BCE), when a poor veteran came to Socrates complaining about lack of money and asking how to cope with expenses, Socrates told him to

    take up some kind of work at once that will assure you a living when you get old.

    Socrates thought making sure you still have money when you
    are old is more important than fully enjoying your current job. You will likely have to put up with things you don’t like to achieve security.

    From ancient to modern

    Most ancient people would probably have said that during a cost-of-living crisis it’s best to be patient, live simply, and wait for better times to come.

    As Pliny the Younger (circa 61–113 CE) once wrote in one of his letters, “my income is small or precarious, but its deficiencies can be made up by simple living”.

    If politicians cannot solve the problems, then it is up to us to cope with them as best as we can.

    Konstantine Panegyres does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The ancients also had to deal with a cost-of-living crisis. Here’s how they managed – https://theconversation.com/the-ancients-also-had-to-deal-with-a-cost-of-living-crisis-heres-how-they-managed-257896

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Global rankings fuel hype, but students have more to consider when choosing a uni

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kylie Message, Professor of Public Humanities and Director of the ANU Humanities Research Centre, Australian National University

    At this time of year, many year 12 students are seriously turning their minds to the future. Should they go to university next year? If so, which one?

    June is also the start of the global ranking season. Last week saw the release of the QS Quacquarelli Symonds 2026 world university rankings, amid reports of a “wake-up call” for Australian universities. About 70% of Australian universities fell in the rankings albeit only by small margins.

    Should students be worried about this? What should they – and the rest of us – understand about global rankings?

    What are rankings?

    Global university rankings aim to evaluate all universities in the world through a a single comparative framework.

    Apart from QS, other high-profile global rankings include those by Shanghai Ranking and the Times Higher Education.

    Each ranking system has a slightly different focus and methodology.

    QS looks at student-to-staff ratios, student employability, the reputation of the university as an employer, sustainability, global engagement and academic citations. It also ranks specific subjects across universities, which can be helpful if you want to know about the quality of teaching in a particular discipline or field.

    It is comprehensive. QS included 36 of Australia’s 43 universities in their latest assessment. These universities were also compared to more than 1,400 other institutions across 105 other countries.

    What impact do rankings have?

    These rankings are promoted as objective indicators and markers of prestige. They can be very influential in terms of attracting potential donors and students.

    One analysis suggests academic rankings are more influential than are research results for attracting philanthropic investment in Australian universities.

    The rankings can also directly affect the resources available for students.

    We know rankings can influence where international students (and the resources that accompany them) go. Australian universities have long relied on fees from international students to support funding shortfalls.

    Rankings are not everything

    But global rankings have many critics. They may include a lot of information but this is not necessarily what students in diverse situations and locations need.

    The rankings also do not reflect how much time and how many resources some universities put into the information that goes back to the ranking process.

    In November 2023, an independent expert group, convened by the United Nations issued a statement criticising the rankings system.

    It said “the very idea of global university rankings is fundamentally flawed”.

    It is simply not possible to produce a fair and credible global league table of universities given their multiple missions and their diverse social, economic and political contexts around the world.

    It also noted the rankings advantaged “historically privileged institutions”.

    The statement also said there was a bias towards the English language, certain types of research, and science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects. “This undermines the importance of teaching and of the humanities and social sciences,” it said.

    A bias against regional unis?

    The rankings also do not favour regional universities, which is particularly relevant for Australian students.

    The QS 2026 survey shows four regional Australian universities slipped in rank and all are positioned outside the global top 400.

    This shows how global rankings are a blunt instrument and don’t account for the broader place of universities in regional areas. Here they play a vital role in their communities, driving economic growth and providing essential services.

    What should prospective students consider?

    Although universities within countries are ranked as better or worse than each other in a global league table, it is important to recognise specific national factors are not considered in the rankings. And individual student experience is rarely taken into account.

    Student experience includes the quality of teaching and the types of support individuals have access to, as well as the facilities and the culture on and around campus. We also know student experience continues to be affected by loneliness in the post-Covid era.

    So prospective students should be careful when it comes to making a decision about where to go to university. Rankings are a useful tool but so is talking to friends and family and going to open days.

    More than anything else, Year 12 students should know this is not the most important decision of their lives. They can take a gap year or change degrees. In fact many students do one or both of these things.

    Kylie Message does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Global rankings fuel hype, but students have more to consider when choosing a uni – https://theconversation.com/global-rankings-fuel-hype-but-students-have-more-to-consider-when-choosing-a-uni-259443

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How old are you really? Are the latest ‘biological age’ tests all they’re cracked up to be?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University

    We all like to imagine we’re ageing well. Now a simple blood or saliva test promises to tell us by measuring our “biological age”. And then, as many have done, we can share how “young” we really are on social media, along with our secrets to success.

    While chronological age is how long you have been alive, measures of biological age aim to indicate how old your body actually is, purporting to measure “wear and tear” at a molecular level.

    The appeal of these tests is undeniable. Health-conscious consumers may see their results as reinforcing their anti-ageing efforts, or a way to show their journey to better health is paying off.

    But how good are these tests? Do they actually offer useful insights? Or are they just clever marketing dressed up to look like science?

    How do these tests work?

    Over time, the chemical processes that allow our body to function, known as our “metabolic activity”, lead to damage and a decline in the activity of our cells, tissues and organs.

    Biological age tests aim to capture some of these changes, offering a snapshot of how well, or how poorly, we are ageing on a cellular level.

    Our DNA is also affected by the ageing process. In particular, chemical tags (methyl groups) attach to our DNA and affect gene expression. These changes occur in predictable ways with age and environmental exposures, in a process called methylation.

    Research studies have used “epigenetic clocks”, which measure the methylation of our genes, to estimate biological age. By analysing methylation levels at specific sites in the genome from participant samples, researchers apply predictive models to estimate the cumulative wear and tear on the body.

    What does the research say about their use?

    Although the science is rapidly evolving, the evidence underpinning the use of epigenetic clocks to measure biological ageing in research studies is strong.

    Studies have shown epigenetic biological age estimation is a better predictor of the risk of death and ageing-related diseases than chronological age.

    Epigenetic clocks also have been found to correlate strongly with lifestyle and environmental exposures, such as smoking status and diet quality.

    In addition, they have been found to be able to predict the risk of conditions such as cardiovascular disease, which can lead to heart attacks and strokes.

    Taken together, a growing body of research indicates that at a population level, epigenetic clocks are robust measures of biological ageing and are strongly linked to the risk of disease and death

    But how good are these tests for individuals?

    While these tests are valuable when studying populations in research settings, using epigenetic clocks to measure the biological age of individuals is a different matter and requires scrutiny.

    For testing at an individual level, perhaps the most important consideration is the “signal to noise ratio” (or precision) of these tests. This is the question of whether a single sample from an individual may yield widely differing results.

    A study from 2022 found samples deviated by up to nine years. So an identical sample from a 40-year-old may indicate a biological age of as low as 35 years (a cause for celebration) or as high as 44 years (a cause of anxiety).

    While there have been significant improvements in these tests over the years, there is considerable variability in the precision of these tests between commercial providers. So depending on who you send your sample to, your estimated biological age may vary considerably.

    Another limitation is there is currently no standardisation of methods for this testing. Commercial providers perform these tests in different ways and have different algorithms for estimating biological age from the data.

    As you would expect for commercial operators, providers don’t disclose their methods. So it’s difficult to compare companies and determine who provides the most accurate results – and what you’re getting for your money.

    A third limitation is that while epigenetic clocks correlate well with ageing, they are simply a “proxy” and are not a diagnostic tool.

    In other words, they may provide a general indication of ageing at a cellular level. But they don’t offer any specific insights about what the issue may be if someone is found to be “ageing faster” than they would like, or what they’re doing right if they are “ageing well”.

    So regardless of the result of your test, all you’re likely to get from the commercial provider of an epigenetic test is generic advice about what the science says is healthy behaviour.

    Are they worth it? Or what should I do instead?

    While companies offering these tests may have good intentions, remember their ultimate goal is to sell you these tests and make a profit. And at a cost of around A$500, they’re not cheap.

    While the idea of using these tests as a personalised health tool has potential, it is clear that we are not there yet.

    For this to become a reality, tests will need to become more reproducible, standardised across providers, and validated through long-term studies that link changes in biological age to specific behaviours.

    So while one-off tests of biological age make for impressive social media posts, for most people they represent a significant cost and offer limited real value.

    The good news is we already know what we need to do to increase our chances of living longer and healthier lives. These include:

    • improving our diet
    • increasing physical activity
    • getting enough sleep
    • quitting smoking
    • reducing stress
    • prioritising social connection.

    We don’t need to know our biological age in order to implement changes in our lives right now to improve our health.

    Hassan Vally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How old are you really? Are the latest ‘biological age’ tests all they’re cracked up to be? – https://theconversation.com/how-old-are-you-really-are-the-latest-biological-age-tests-all-theyre-cracked-up-to-be-257710

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Playful or harmful? David Seymour’s posts raise questions about what’s OK to say online

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kevin Veale, Senior Lecturer in Media Studies, part of the Digital Cultures Laboratory in the School of Humanities, Media, and Creative Communication, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

    Hagen Hopkins/Getty Images

    Deputy Prime Minister and ACT Party leader David Seymour says he is being “playful” and having “fun” with his “Victim of the Day” social media posts, targeting opponents of his Regulatory Standards Bill.

    But the posts – which have singled out academics and MPs who have criticised or made select committee submissions against the bill, accusing them of suffering from “Regulatory Standards Derangement Syndrome” – have now led to at least two official complaints to Cabinet.

    Wellington City mayor Tory Whanau has alleged they amounted to “online harassment and intimidation” against academics and were in breach of the Cabinet Manual rules for ministers. According to the manual, ministers should

    behave in a way that upholds, and is seen to uphold, the highest ethical and behavioural standards. This includes exercising a professional approach and good judgement in their interactions with the public, staff, and officials, and in all their communications, personal and professional.

    Academic Anne Salmond, one of those targeted by the posts, has also alleged Seymour breached the behaviour standards set out by the manual. According to Salmond:

    This “Victim of the Day” campaign does not match this description. It is unethical, unprofessional and potentially dangerous to those targeted. Debate is fine, online incitements are not.

    When is a joke not a joke?

    Seymour’s claim he was being “playful” while using his platform to criticise individuals follows a pattern of targeting critics while deflecting criticism of his own behaviour.

    For example, in 2022 Seymour demanded an apology from Māori Party co-leader Rawiri Waititi, after Waititi earlier joked about poisoning Seymour with karaka berries. At the time, Seymour said:

    I’m genuinely concerned that the next step is that some slightly more radical person doesn’t think it’s a joke.

    But the same year, Seymour defended Tauranga by-election candidate Cameron Luxton’s joke that the city’s commission chair Anne Tolley was like Marie Antoinette and should be beheaded.

    In 2023, Seymour joked about abolishing the Ministry of Pacific Peoples:

    In my fantasy, we’d send a guy called Guy Fawkes in there and it’d be all over, but we’ll probably have to have a more formal approach than that.

    Māori researcher and advocate Tina Ngata criticised Seymour’s argument that he was joking:

    Calling it a joke does not make it any less white-supremacist. What it does is point to the fact that in David Seymour’s mind, violence against Pacific peoples is so normalised, that he can make a joke out of it […] but he’s not any person is he? He is a politician, a leader of a political party, with a significant platform and the means and opportunities to advance that normalised violence into policy and legislation.

    Designed to silence

    An analysis of Seymour’s recent social media posts by researcher Sanjana Hattotuwa at the Disinformation Project has argued they have the potential to lead to online harassment, saying they are:

    designed to silence opposition to the controversial Regulatory Standards Bill whilst maintaining plausible deniability about the resulting harassment, harms and hate.

    The “Victims of the Day” posts about Anne Salmond and former Green leader Metiria Turei were textbook examples of “technology-facilitated gender-based violence and online misogyny”, Hattotuwa argued. And the use of the term “derangement” framed academic criticism as a mental disorder – undermining expertise.

    As my own research shows, online harassment and violent rhetoric can raise the chances of real-world violence.

    Since the early 2000s, researchers have used the term “stochastic terrorism” to describe a way of indirectly threatening people. Nobody is specifically told “harm these people”, so the person putting them at risk has plausible deniability.

    Seymour is already aware of these dynamics, as shown by his demand for an apology from Waititi over the karaka berry poisoning “joke”.

    Free speech for who?

    Seymour and ACT have long presented themselves as champions of free speech:

    Freedom of expression is one of the most important values our society has. We can only solve our most pressing problems in an open society in which free thought and open enquiry are encouraged.

    By going after critics of the Regulatory Standards Bill, Seymour may only be ridiculing speech he does not like. But he has taken things further in the past.

    In 2023, he criticised poet Tusiata Avia for her poem “Savage Coloniser Pantoum”, which Seymour said was racist and would incite racially motivated violence. He made demands that the government withdraw NZ$107,280 in taxpayer money from the 2023 Auckland Arts Festival in response.

    ACT list MP Todd Stephenson also threatened to remove Creative NZ funding after Avia received a Prime Minister’s Award for Literary Achievement. Avia said she received death threats after ACT’s criticism of her work.

    The more serious purpose of saying something contentious is “just a joke” is to portray those who disagree as humourless and not deserving to be taken seriously.

    ACT’s “Victim of the Day” campaign does something similar in attempting to discredit serious critics of the Regulatory Standards Bill by mocking them.

    But in the end, we have to be alert to the potential political double standard: harmless jokes for me, but not for you. Dangerous threats from you, but not from me.

    Kevin Veale does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Playful or harmful? David Seymour’s posts raise questions about what’s OK to say online – https://theconversation.com/playful-or-harmful-david-seymours-posts-raise-questions-about-whats-ok-to-say-online-259658

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: A chance discovery of a 365-million-year-old fossil reveals a new type of ray-finned fish

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Conrad Daniel Mackenzie Wilson, PhD candidate in Earth Sciences, Carleton University

    An artist’s rendition of the newly discovered fish, _Sphyragnathus tyche_. (C. Wilson), CC BY

    In 2015, two members of the Blue Beach Fossil Museum in Nova Scotia found a long, curved fossil jaw, bristling with teeth. Sonja Wood, the museum’s owner, and Chris Mansky, the museum’s curator, found the fossil in a creek after Wood had a hunch.

    The fossil they found belonged to a fish that had died 350 million years ago, its bony husk spanning nearly a metre on the lake bed. The large fish had lived in waters thick with rival fish, including giants several times its size. It had hooked teeth at the tip of its long jaw that it would use to trap elusive prey and fangs at the back to pierce it and break it down to eat.

    For the last eight years, I have been part of a team under the lead of paleontologist Jason Anderson, who has spent decades researching the Blue Beach area of Nova Scotia, northwest of Halifax, in collaboration with Mansky and other colleagues. Much of this work has been on the tetrapods — the group that includes the first vertebrates to move to land and all their descendants — but my research focuses on what Blue Beach fossils can tell us about how the modern vertebrate world formed.

    Blue Beach Fossil Museum curator Chris Mansky below the fossil cliffs.
    (C. Wilson), CC BY

    Birth of the modern vertebrate world

    The modern vertebrate world is defined by the dominance of three groups: the cartilaginous fishes or chondrichthyans (including sharks, rays and chimaeras), the lobe-finned fishes or sarcopterygians (including tetrapods and rare lungfishes and coelacanths), and the ray-finned fishes or actinopterygians (including everything from sturgeon to tuna). Only a few jawless fishes round out the picture.

    This basic grouping has remained remarkably consistent — at least for the last 350 million years.

    Before then, the vertebrate world was a lot more crowded. In the ancient vertebrate world, during the Silurian Period (443.7-419.2 MA) for example, the ancestors of modern vertebrates swam alongside spiny pseudo-sharks (acanthodians), fishy sarcopterygians, placoderms and jawless fishes with bony shells.

    Armoured jawless fishes had dwindled by the Late Devonian Period (419.2-358.9 MA), but the rest were still diverse. Actinopterygians were still restricted to a few species with similar body shapes.

    By the immediately succeeding early Carboniferous times, everything had changed. The placoderms were gone, the number of species of fishy sarcopterygians and acanthodians had cratered, and actinopterygians and chondrichthyans were flourishing in their place.

    The modern vertebrate world was born.

    A shortnose chimaera, belonging to the chondrichthyan group of vertebrates.
    (Shutterstock)

    A sea change

    Blue Beach has helped build our understanding of how this happened. Studies describing its tetrapods and actinopterygians have showed the persistence of Devonian-style forms in the Carboniferous Period.

    Whereas the abrupt end-Devonian decline of the placoderms, acanthodians and fishy sarcopterygians can be explained by a mass extinction, it now appears that multiple types of actinopterygians and tetrapods survived to be preserved at Blue Beach. This makes a big difference to the overall story: Devonian-style tetrapods and actinopterygians survive and contribute to the evolution of these groups into the Carboniferous Period.

    But significant questions remain for paleontologists. One point of debate revolves around how actinopterygians diversified as the modern vertebrate world was born — whether they explored new ways of feeding or swimming first.

    Comparing the jawbones of Sphyragnathus, Austelliscus and Tegeolepis.
    (C. Wilson), CC BY

    The Blue Beach fossil was actinopterygian, and we wondered what it could tell us about this issue. Comparison was difficult. Two actinopterygians with long jaws and large fangs were known from the preceding Devonian Period (Austelliscus ferox and Tegeolepis clarki), but the newly found jaw had more extreme curvature and the arrangement of its teeth. Its largest fangs are at the back of its jaw, but the largest fangs of Austelliscus and Tegeolepis are at the front.

    These differences were significant enough that we created a new genus and species: Sphyragnathus tyche. And, in view of the debate on actinopterygian diversification, we made a prediction: that the differences in anatomy between Sphyragnathus and Devonian actinopterygians represented different adaptations for feeding.

    Front fangs

    To test this prediction, we compared Sphyragnathus, Austelliscus and Tegeolepis to living actinopterygians. In modern actinopterygians, the difference in anatomy reflects a difference in function: front-fangs capture prey with their front teeth and grip it with their back teeth, but back-fangs use their back teeth.

    Since we couldn’t observe the fossil fish in action, we analyzed the stress their teeth would experience if we applied force. The back teeth of Sphyragnathus handled force with low stress, making them suited for a role in piercing prey, but the back teeth of Austelliscus and Tegeolepis turned low forces into significantly higher stress, making them best suited for gripping.

    We concluded that Sphyragnathus was the earliest actinopterygian adapted for breaking down prey by piercing, which also matches the broader predictions of the feeding-first hypothesis.

    Substantial work remains — only the jaw of Sphyragnathus is preserved, so the “locomotion-first” hypothesis was untested. But this represents the challenge and promise of paleontology: get enough tantalizing glimpses into the past and you can begin to unfold a history.

    As for the actinopterygians, research indicates they survived and diversified during Devonian times and had shifting roles during the birth of the modern vertebrate world — at least until more fossils are found that could determine whether that’s the case.

    Conrad Daniel Mackenzie Wilson receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Ontario Student Assistance Program, and the Society of Vertebrate Paleontology.

    – ref. A chance discovery of a 365-million-year-old fossil reveals a new type of ray-finned fish – https://theconversation.com/a-chance-discovery-of-a-365-million-year-old-fossil-reveals-a-new-type-of-ray-finned-fish-254246

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Hidden gems of LGBTQ+ cinema: A League of Their Own was always queer

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kate McNicholas Smith, Lecturer in Television Theory, University of Westminster

    Sports comedy drama film, A League of Their Own, directed by Penny Marshall, was released in 1992. In the same year, professor and film critic B Ruby Rich coined the term “new queer cinema” to describe a wave of independent films which represented LGBTQ+ people in new and unapologetic ways.

    Meanwhile on television, the decade saw some groundbreaking representations of LGBTQ+ characters. In 1997, US actor and TV presenter Ellen DeGeneres famously came out on and off screen.

    Yet, as a teenager coming of age (and coming out) in late 1990s Britain, Section 28 (a law prohibiting the “promotion” of homosexuality by local authorities and schools) was still firmly in place and representation felt scarce. So, I did what queer audiences have always done and found representation in interpretation, reimagining and reading the subtext.

    Queer viewers have long found pleasure and queer possibilities in popular culture. There are many examples of stars and screen characters who are not necessarily LGBTQ+ themselves but have come to be distinctly associated with queer culture. Take singer and actress Judy Garland, who is widely recognised as a gay icon (as depicted in the 2019 biographical film Judy).

    So big was her LGBTQ+ fandom that she likely inspired the historical code term “a friend of Dorothy”. This code references The Wizard of Oz, in which Garland plays Dorothy, and was used within the LGBTQ+ community to discreetly identify each other.

    This article is part of a series highlighting brilliant films that should be more widely known and firmly part of the canon of queer cinema .

    Film theorist Patricia White traces such viewing practices back to the introduction of the Motion Picture Production (or Hays) Code. The Code heavily restricted what could be shown on screen and prohibited LGBTQ+ representation, but in doing so encouraged audiences to engage in queer codes and subtexts.

    A League of Their Own tells the fictionalised true story of the All-American Girls Professional Baseball League. In 1988, Dottie Hinson (Geena Davis) is attending a celebration of the women at the Baseball Hall of Fame. We quickly flash back to 1943 and the formation of the league.

    The second world war is in full thrust and the men are away fighting, which threatens the shut down of major league baseball. However, Chicago Cubs owner Walter Harvey persuades his fellow owners to bankroll a women’s league.

    Making up the newly formed Rockford Peaches, there’s Davis as Dottie and Lori Petty as Kit, Dottie’s frustrated younger sister. Also on the team are “tomboy” Marla Hooch (Megan Cavanagh), “all the way” Mae Mordabito, played by Madonna (who once declared “I think everybody has a bisexual nature”), and Doris Murphy, played by lesbian comic, actor and talk show host, Rosie O’Donnell (although O’Donnell didn’t come out publicly until 2002).



    Read more:
    Hidden gems of LGBTQ+ cinema: Saving Face is a complicated romcom that tenderly depicts the experiences of queer Asians

    While the film remains determinedly heterosexual, the possibilities for queer readings abound. Characters like Dottie and Mae offer glamorous high femme looks and personas, while Kit and Marla represent outsiders who don’t quite fit in. The close relationship, styling and characterisations of best friends Doris and Mae (and the extra connotations of the actors) evoke a coded butch/femme couple. No surprise then that I am not alone in my love for the film. A League of their Own became a cult queer classic.



    Read more:
    Hidden gems of LGBTQ+ cinema: celebrating the wonderful slippery queerness of Penda’s Fen

    There may be, as reluctant Rockford Peaches manager Jimmy (Tom Hanks) shouts in one of the film’s most quoted lines, “no crying in baseball” – but the film never fails to leave me in tears.

    Everytime I watch Dottie leaving the league to return to her husband Bob – a narrative resolve that firmly forecloses the queer possibilities of the character – my heart is broken. The melancholy of the ending perhaps reflects the seeming impossibility of a queer future – both in 1940s US and to me at school in 1990s Britain. Of course, queerness was far from impossible in either decade, although it was often, as in the film, hidden from those who did not know where to look for it.

    Rockford Peach Dorothy “Dottie” Kamenshek was one of the inspirations for the fictional Dottie – she was also a lesbian and later married fellow player Margaret Wenzell. Another player in the women’s league at the time, Peoria Redwings catcher Terry Donahue, kept her relationship with Pat Henschel a secret for almost 70 years. In 2020, Netflix documentary, A Secret Love, told their story.

    Maybelle Blair, who also played for a time with the Peoria Redwings, came out publicly at 95 years old in 2022. She reflected on the women of the league: “Out of 650, I bet you 400 was gay.”

    In 2022, Amazon Prime released a television adaptation of A League of Their Own, co-created by Will Graham and Abbi Jacobson (Broad City). Like queer fan fiction come to life, the television show rewrites the central characters as canonically queer.

    What’s more, unlike the film, the series offers a diverse take on the racism and homophobia, as well as the sexism, of the era. This time round, the central characters included Maxine Chapman (Chanté Adams) – a black lesbian player who is rejected from the racially segregated league – and her black transmasculine uncle Bertie (Lea Robinson).

    In one episode, the queer teammates visit a lesbian bar run by none other than Rosie O’Donnell, now a 1940s butch with a wife. To gain entry they are asked: “Are you a friend of Dorothy’s?”

    Thus, the queer subtext of A League of Their Own, which so captured my queer teen heart, emerged firmly into view in the television adaptation, which was sadly cancelled after only one series. Watching the series, however, was validating, as what secretly made the film mean so much to me was made visible. Queerness in the show, like in my own life, was no longer an impossibility.

    Kate McNicholas Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Hidden gems of LGBTQ+ cinema: A League of Their Own was always queer – https://theconversation.com/hidden-gems-of-lgbtq-cinema-a-league-of-their-own-was-always-queer-257061

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Neurodiverse kids at camp: How programs can become places where all children belong

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Nicole Neil, Associate professor, Faculty of Education, Western University

    For many families, summer camp is a rite of passage representing friendship, fun and freedom. But for families of children with neurodevelopmental disabilities, it can be a season of rejection, stress and exclusion.

    While other children pack their bags for campfires and canoeing, many children with disabilities are told there’s no space for them, not because they don’t belong, but because the camp isn’t prepared. This is a reality faced by families of children with disabilities.

    That’s why colleagues and I created the Inclusive Camp Hub (inclusivecamp.ca), a free, research-informed platform to help camps become places where every child can participate.

    Why we needed to act

    In Canada, about one in 11 children are diagnosed with a neurodevelopmental disability, such as autism, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and intellectual disabilities. And yet, despite legal protections like the Accessibility for Ontarians with Disabilities Act, many camps report difficulties in creating inclusive environments.

    Our research into inclusion in community settings, such as camps and museums, revealed consistent barriers: staff lacked training, resources were scarce and families were left with few options. As a result, children with neurodevelopmental disabilities were excluded from the same joyful, formative experiences their peers enjoyed.

    These barriers have real consequences. Families often struggle to find respite during the summer, and children miss out on opportunities for social development, peer interaction and community belonging.

    Building the Hub

    Well-trained and supportive staff play a crucial role in fostering inclusion in camps. Interviews with families revealed the importance of staff who are kind, responsive and equipped to support a wide range of needs. It was clear that staff training needed to be a central focus of our work.

    We designed The Inclusive Camp Hub to feature practical tools grounded in research from inclusive education to focus on staff training modules, tip sheets and real-world strategies that are easy to implement.

    In studying and following a module about Universal Design for Learning, for example, camp directors or staff can consider strategies for providing multiple means of representation, engagement and expression — while ensuring physical spaces and materials are universally accessible.

    Less awareness of cognitive accessibility

    While many community settings have made strides in improving physical accessibility, adding ramps, accessible washrooms and mobility-friendly spaces, there has been far less attention paid to cognitive accessibility.

    This includes designing environments that support different ways to participate, such as by making routines predictable and by making activities flexible enough to accommodate different ways of learning.

    In developing the Inclusive Camp Hub, we drew on evidence-based practices identified in our research.

    These include staff training, peer-mediated interventions and behavioural supports such as reinforcement systems and prompting. Reinforcement systems are structured ways to encourage behaviour by offering rewards or positive outcomes when those behaviours happen. Prompting means giving a child cues, like pictures, words or gestures, to help them complete a task such as using a visual schedule to show what comes next.

    We also found that families with children with neurodevelopmental disabilities valued hands-on, multi-sensory learning experiences, clear signage, quiet spaces and staff who are kind and responsive. By incorporating these strategies into our training site, we aimed to make inclusion achievable and sustainable for camps of all types.

    A model camp

    To test and refine our approach to inclusion, we launched a model inclusive camp, called the S3 camp, at Western University.

    We welcomed children ages nine to 14 — with and without neurodevelopmental disabilities — and focused on STEM activities, disability awareness and, most importantly, a sense of belonging.

    The camp was staffed by students in a school psychology program, as well as education and STEM-field students who received specialized training and used inclusive design tools from the Hub. They learned how to create accessible activities, use behavioural supports, support communication differences and foster inclusive group dynamics.

    The results were promising. We saw campers who had difficulty at other camps fully engaged in activities. Staff reported feeling more confident and capable in supporting children with disabilities, and parents said their children came home happy, proud and excited to return the next year.

    Why camp inclusion matters

    At first glance, summer camps might seem like a luxury — a fun experience rather than a critical developmental one. But camps offer more than just fun: they are powerful spaces for growth, learning and connection.

    Research shows that children in inclusive settings experience improved social skills, stronger peer relationships and increased self-esteem. They learn through play, build friendships and develop a sense of belonging, all which are foundational for healthy development.

    These benefits extend to all campers. Neurotypical children gain empathy, communication skills and a broader understanding of diversity

    Looking forward

    Inclusive Camp Hub is now expanding its reach, with plans to partner with more camps and extend its impact while continuing to refine our tools based on feedback from families, staff and community organizations.

    Camp leaders can take the first step by exploring the free tools and training available through the Hub. Families and advocates can continue to ask questions, share their experiences and push for environments where all children are welcomed and supported.

    As a researcher, I’ve spent years studying inclusion. But nothing compares to seeing it in action, watching a child find joy, friendship and confidence at camp. Every child deserves a summer of belonging.

    Nicole Neil’s work is supported in part by funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.

    – ref. Neurodiverse kids at camp: How programs can become places where all children belong – https://theconversation.com/neurodiverse-kids-at-camp-how-programs-can-become-places-where-all-children-belong-258793

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Global: To make buy-now-pay-later fair for consumers, regulators need to understand why shoppers use it

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anita Lifen Zhao, Associate Professor of Marketing at the School of Management, Swansea University

    fornStudio/Shutterstock

    Many consumers – especially gen Z and millennials – use buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) to split or defer payments. The types of purchases made with BNPL can range from groceries and takeaway deliveries to luxury items.

    Nearly 40% of regular BNPL users consider shopping a leisure activity. Easily accessing such credit could increase consumption in this group. It is, therefore, unsurprising that the UK BNPL market is projected to triple from 2021 levels by 2030.

    With timely repayments, this short-term credit option is free from interest and fees. As an unregulated service, BNPL requires minimal financial checks, ensuring that most purchases will be swiftly approved.

    A buyer can acquire items quickly without paying the full amount upfront – the BNPL provider pays the retailer for the goods and recoups the amount from the buyer through instalments.

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    So how do BNPL providers make their money? While they may charge customers late fees and account costs, their primary revenue comes from taking a percentage of each BNPL transaction from the retailer and a service fee. This business model is standard for payment services.

    But retailers often pay much more for BNPL transactions – sometimes three times more than traditional credit card processing. So to ensure they make a profit, BNPL providers deftly encourage consumers to shop with retailers that use their services.

    BNPL is a form of embedded finance – meaning that it seamlessly integrates payments into retailer sites. More than half of retailers are seeing better conversion (more people going on to buy after browsing) when they offer BNPL. This also allows many retailers to expand their market, as BNPL makes products accessible to more consumers.

    But there’s a catch. With higher BNPL fees, nearly one in three retailers pass these costs on to customers through higher product prices at the checkout. Consumers face higher prices, and yet BNPL promotes affordability.

    A marriage made in heaven?

    In this scenario, BNPL acts only as a credit product. But in reality it is more than that. Several providers have created shopping platforms promoting retailers and offering easy repayment management.

    This combination of easy funds, appealing shopping experiences and technology-enabled repayment distinguishes BNPL. Our research indicates that BNPL could reshape retail landscapes by weakening competition.

    Many BNPL providers offer user-friendly websites and apps, exceeding traditional financial service expectations and influencing key psychological determinants of BNPL use, such as viewing it as a way to save money or being psychologically distanced from the act of borrowing.

    As revealed in our most recent study, these platforms are visually appealing, highlight various brands and offer targeted discounts. BNPL is easy to navigate, expands budgets and provides access to credit to those who might otherwise struggle. While BNPL appears to democratise credit, its opaque nature can also present pitfalls.

    The package can promote consumer spending, debt and over-consumption. Consequently, there has been a rise in late fees. More than half of BNPL users have incurred a fee, one in three have missed a payment and three in four are at risk of needing debt advice. Others have borrowed to repay BNPL debt.

    BNPL options can make the buying process seamless.
    Tada Images/Shutterstock

    This escalates when consumers have multiple agreements across providers, complicating debt management. Many BNPL users feel vulnerable, weighing long-term savings against marketing that encourages spending. Their ability to manage this vulnerability affects their financial health, wellbeing and self-image.

    As concerns about BNPL debt rise, regulators in countries such as the UK are addressing its financial service aspects. However, they often overlook providers’ techniques for targeting consumers and supporting their shopping habits.

    Potential regulation focuses on financial attributes, including affordability checks, but neglects the technological mechanisms that keep customers using BNPL.

    Our research suggests that BNPL’s success rests on its effective use of technology, particularly artificial intelligence and its algorithms. They streamline the loan process, enable repayments to be tailored to each consumer, help shoppers find what they’re looking for and identify retailers, brands and products that a user might like. BNPL providers are technology-based retail platforms as much as financial institutions.

    BNPL in numbers

    To protect consumers, legislation like that proposed in the UK must address the technological heart of BNPL and the risks of algorithmic marketing when designing retail sites. These risks could include targeted retailer and product promotions that nudge buying behaviour, or building a customer’s reliance on delaying payments.

    Proposed regulation focuses on the individual credit agreement between a user and provider. This overlooks cumulative BNPL spending and its persistence. What’s needed is a holistic approach considering that consumers often enter multiple agreements at once. This affects shopping habits, budgeting and repayment behaviour.

    Only by addressing this will consumers be appropriately protected. But rethinking BNPL will also mean thinking again about who might be a vulnerable consumer. Traditional demographic factors fail to capture BNPL users’ psycho-social characteristics – things like materialism, impulsiveness and financial literacy. These are more influential than demographic markers on their usage and repayment behaviour.

    Regulators need to understand who is using BNPL and why. Only then will they appreciate BNPL’s full scope and market impact and be able to enable consumers to have a healthy relationship with credit.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. To make buy-now-pay-later fair for consumers, regulators need to understand why shoppers use it – https://theconversation.com/to-make-buy-now-pay-later-fair-for-consumers-regulators-need-to-understand-why-shoppers-use-it-259487

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How restoring river catchments can minimise drought and flood risks

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Neil Entwistle, Professor of River Science and Climate Resilience, University of Salford

    Elenitsa/Shutterstock

    As Britain’s first heatwave of 2025 hits with temperatures climbing above 30°C, Yorkshire has joined the northwest in official drought status.

    This spring has been the driest in the UK since 1893. May’s rainfall was 43% lower than the long-term average. Fish rescues have already taken place in Shropshire as rivers dried up. Low water levels have made it difficult for boats to navigate along some canals.

    Water companies in regions such as Hampshire, Yorkshire and Cumbria are encouraging residents to conserve water.

    Years of drainage, overgrazing and peatland degradation have turned much of the UK’s uplands into fast-draining systems. Rainfall that once infiltrated slowly now rushes off hillsides, filling rivers quickly, before vanishing just as fast.

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    Even after a year of exceptional rain and flooding, the soils and ecosystems that should be buffering us against drought are depleted. This recent spell of dry weather has exposed just how fragile the system has become.

    The UK government reconvened the national drought group – a coalition of its most senior decision-makers, Environment Agency, water companies, plus key farming and environmental groups – on June 5 to address growing concerns as reservoir levels which are at 77% of capacity nationally.

    Water availability remains under pressure across much of England. Sources in the northwest Pennines, Haweswater and Thirlmere in the Lake District, which supply much of the northwest, are currently at around 50% of capacity. Normally, they would be around 75% full. In Yorkshire, these water levels are currently around 60%.

    The reservoir at Anglezarke in Lancashire is drying out.
    Neil Entwistle, CC BY-NC-ND

    But landscapes can be restored in ways that reduce both flood risk and the effects of drought. At Smithills Estate near Bolton, the Mersey Forest (Cheshire and Merseyside’s community forest), conservation charity Woodland Trust and the Environment Agency have spent the last decade restoring 1,700 hectares of upland.

    They have blocked old drainage channels, rewetted peat bogs, planted trees, improved soil structure and adapted farming. These changes (often referred to as natural flood management) allow the land to hold water longer, slow its release, and sustain the flow of water in rivers during dry periods that can help water conservation and reduce the risk of floods.

    Restoring rivers

    We both grew up in the shadow of the moorlands around Rivington and Smithills in Bolton. We built our careers restoring rivers and their catchments and want to prevent “water-stressed” situations where water demand exceeds the available supply. We continue to study the implications and resilience of natural flood management here in the UK and overseas.

    At Smithills, restored bogs act like sponges, soaking up rain and releasing it gradually. Newly planted woodland supports biodiversity, encourages water infiltration and provides shade, which reduces evaporation. Natural flood management has slowed water down across the catchment, helping to reduce peak flows during storms by 27.3% and has boosted river flows during dry spells by storing and slowly releasing water by 27.1%.

    Tree trunks slow down the flow of water.
    Neil Entwistle, CC BY-NC-ND

    Tree trunks laid across the gullies have kept areas of Smithills wet throughout spring, creating valuable habitat and supporting water resilience in the landscape. We’re working with partners to monitor natural flood management benefits and expand restoration, while also exploring new questions.

    These include how the structures influence greenhouse gas emissions through wetting and drying cycles, affect sediment capture and storage, and how their function changes over time. This research is helping to shape how nature-based solutions are understood, valued and adopted more widely.

    Mitigation (tackling the root causes) and adaptation (adjusting systems and behaviours) to water stresses require landowners, water companies, local authorities, regulators, environmental groups and communities to work together to deliver shared outcomes.

    But this effort needs to be matched by an understanding that changes in how land is managed too. If the landscape continues to shed water rapidly, reservoirs will struggle to recover even when rain does arrive. We need to slow the flow of water and rejuvenate the lost natural processes at large scales through restoration.

    Farmers are grazing cattle on the heath.
    Neil Entwistle, CC BY-NC-ND

    The UK will face water shortages within the next decade unless urgent action is taken. The recent Independent Water Commission, set up by the UK government to recommend a major overhaul of the water sector’s planning, regulation and infrastructure, highlights the importance of nature-based solutions, such as restoring natural processes like river flow and wetland function, alongside natural capital investment.

    This involves putting money and resources into the protection, restoration or enhancement of nature, to secure long-term benefits such as clean air, water purification or flood protection.

    Nature-based solutions can be scaled up quickly, plus they benefit people and the environment. Local communities can also get involved in meaningful restoration work. At Smithills, volunteers plant trees and help monitor the benefits of natural flood management, including changes in water quality, water levels and biodiversity. Farmers are exploring regenerative grazing.

    Schools use the estate for environmental learning. This is not only about resilience – it is about reconnecting people with the natural landscapes that surround them.

    To avoid routine hosepipe bans, protect biodiversity and secure food and water supply into the future, land needs to be at the centre of the UK’s drought strategy. Restoring bogs, woodlands and soils is not a luxury. It is essential infrastructure in a changing climate.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Neil Entwistle has received previous funding from British Council, Universities UK, NERC for work related to river restoration and climate resilience. He also works for a boutique fund manager, to fund and deploy solutions to some of the most pressing Nature-related challenges our economy faces today.

    Neil Macdonald receives funding from DEFRA through the Natural Flood Management Programme (https://www.gov.uk/guidance/natural-flood-management-programme).

    – ref. How restoring river catchments can minimise drought and flood risks – https://theconversation.com/how-restoring-river-catchments-can-minimise-drought-and-flood-risks-258840

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: UK plan to cut energy bills for industrial firms threatens to leave small businesses out in the cold

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sam Hampton, Researcher, Environmental Geography, University of Oxford

    The UK government aims to cut energy bills for large businesses by up to a quarter over four years, thanks to a £2 billion investment within its new industrial strategy. The aim is to make British manufacturers of steel, cars, chemicals, glass and other industrial sectors more competitive with foreign firms.

    UK businesses pay some of the highest energy prices in Europe. Under the new scheme, roughly 7,000 energy-intensive businesses will be exempt from paying green levies on their electricity bills. These levies raise funds to support the deployment of renewable energy and to enact energy-efficiency measures like the insulation of low-income households.

    The exemption should make it a bit easier for British companies to switch from fossil fuels to electricity by making the latter cheaper – an important step in the decarbonisation of the economy to tackle climate change. And it may lower costs enough to bring them within orbit of prices paid elsewhere in Europe.

    However, heavy industry in the UK is already largely shielded from many of the levies applied to the average energy bill. The British Industry Supercharger scheme, which since April 2024 has exempted energy-intensive industries from renewable energy policy costs and provided discounted network charges, is set to save British manufacturers between £320 million and £410 million in 2025 alone.

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    The supercharger scheme fully exempts eligible firms from paying several costs linked to encouraging renewable energy investment and production. Industrial energy users covered under this scheme also enjoy a 60% reduction in network charges, compared with businesses outside the scheme.

    The government’s new “modern industrial strategy” sets out plans to raise this discount to 90% from 2026.

    Modelling conducted before the government’s announcement suggested that, if the major green levies on electricity were removed, average non-domestic electricity bills could fall by around 15%.

    While significant, this reduction is unlikely to fully resolve the competitiveness challenges facing most businesses, as even discounted energy prices would remain high by international standards.

    There are other limitations with the strategy. To start, more could be done to encourage firms to switch from fossil fuels to electricity by not just cutting electricity levies but shifting some onto gas bills.

    The cost of expanding and upgrading the grid to support more electrification and renewables is another concern. These investments in power lines and wind farms will be essential, but they won’t come cheap. Reducing the contribution made by big businesses to these costs means the burden for these essential upgrades will fall on smaller businesses and households.

    There are several options for addressing these challenges, however. One is to make energy demand more flexible, by financially incentivising businesses to use electricity when its supply from renewable sources is generally greater.

    Another way to cut network costs for businesses is to offer grid connection arrangements with a less secure electricity supply. These arrangements include allowing the network operator to reduce maximum capacity during times of grid congestion, and sharing a connection with several other businesses.

    Most importantly, the UK needs to move away from a system where the cost of gas sets the price of electricity most of the time, even though less than half of the country’s electricity now comes from gas. This can be achieved by expanding renewable energy storage (in the form of grid-scale batteries for example), so that grid operators are less reliant on gas power plants to fill gaps in electricity supply from wind and solar.

    Reform to Britain’s energy market and its pricing structure would make a real difference too, though this will also require significant investment in grid infrastructure and careful regulatory change.



    Read more:
    How gas keeps the UK’s electricity bills so high – despite lots of cheap wind power

    No relief for smaller businesses

    While the government’s priority is energy savings for larger businesses, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) typically pay the highest rates for their energy. This is even despite most smaller firms being exempt from green levies.

    Energy-intensive sectors, such as hospitality and retail, remain highly vulnerable to energy costs. Average non-domestic electricity prices increased by over 75% between 2021 and 2024, while gas prices more than doubled. This has contributed to a surge in business failures: in June 2024, company insolvencies were 17% higher than a year earlier, reaching the third highest monthly total since 2000.

    Unfortunately, support for SMEs is heading in the wrong direction. Having funded a pilot energy advice service in the West Midlands, the government’s June spending review did not include funding to expand support for energy efficiency or renewable installations to SMEs nationwide. This leaves millions of smaller businesses exposed to high energy prices, without help to cut costs or emissions.

    The government’s new strategy may help some of the UK’s largest manufacturers compete internationally. But without targeted support for smaller firms, the benefits could be unevenly shared. The UK’s wider economy will continue to struggle with high energy costs and business failures as a result.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Sam Hampton receives funding from the Economics and Social Research Council.

    Jan Rosenow is affiliated with the Regulatory Assistance Project.

    – ref. UK plan to cut energy bills for industrial firms threatens to leave small businesses out in the cold – https://theconversation.com/uk-plan-to-cut-energy-bills-for-industrial-firms-threatens-to-leave-small-businesses-out-in-the-cold-259707

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Brazil’s dangerous flirtation with counterterrorism

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Fitzgerald, Associate Professor of Terrorism Studies, Dublin City University

    American pop star Lady Gaga delivered a free concert to over 2.1 million revellers on Copacabana beach in the Brazilian city of Rio de Janeiro in May. Those attuned to security concerns saw a policing and public safety nightmare.

    And shortly after the concert, Rio de Janeiro’s civil police secretary, Felipe Curi, announced that the worst realisation of this nightmare had almost come to pass. An improvised bomb attack targeting fans had been thwarted thanks to police intelligence.

    A loose group of conspirators from across Brazil, gelled across chat apps and other social media by anti-LGBTQ+ sentiments, planned to murder civilians. The intention was to send a political message about resisting what they see as “indecency” and “social decadence”.

    Given the setting, volume of media coverage and possibility of a panicked stampede, Brazil had surely avoided the worst terrorist attack in its history.

    For an attack to qualify as “terrorism”, it must be carried out for explicitly political purposes – motives akin to reshaping society violently or agitating for self-determination through force.

    Yet, a month after the thwarted Copacabana attack, the main conversation about terrorism in Brazil is focused on mistaken efforts to label criminal groups as terrorists.

    In late May, Brazil’s Congress fast tracked a bill that would broaden the definition of terrorism to include the actions of criminal organisations and militias. This is on the basis that their routine practices of “imposing territorial control” are designed to spread “social or widespread terror”. The bill is overly vague and extremely dangerous.

    Brazilian organised crime

    Equating organised crime and the violence it produces with “terrorism” is somewhat understandable. Organised gangs in Brazil, such as Comando Vermelho (CV) and Primeiro Comando da Capital (PCC), control vast expanses of territory, and civilians ultimately pay the price.

    However, as endemic as organised crime is in Brazil, these groups strive for self-enrichment. Their violence is used solely to either protect or enhance this goal. Neither CV nor PCC have any political motive that would qualify their actions as terrorism.

    The government already has legal ways to deal with criminal groups, but it has been hard to achieve lasting, positive results using these methods.

    Should the actions of criminal organisations be reclassified as terrorism, a new suite of measures will become available to the state’s repressive apparatus. This will be true for the current government and future administrations.

    New measures to fight terrorism are practically guaranteed to erode democratic and procedural norms. Armed with a remit to eradicate terrorism, states have repeatedly shown that they exacerbate the very cycles of violence they aim to erase.

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    French-Algerian philosopher Jacques Derrida identified the essence of this dilemma in 2003. In an interview reflecting on the 9/11 attacks on the US, Derrida said that the primary threat of terrorism was not just in the violence itself, but in how societies respond to it.

    The US’s disastrous “war on terror”, for example, led to a consequential wave of violence worldwide. It is estimated to have killed over 500,000 civilians in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. And western countries that joined the fray have suffered jihadist attacks in return.

    Governments also adopted new measures to deal with security issues inside their own countries. Potential terrorists were apprehended through surveillance, with the new goal of counterterrorism being to intervene before violence is able to occur.

    States of emergency, which significantly curtail civil liberties, were routinely imposed in the aftermath of high-profile terrorist attacks. This included a state of emergency after the November 2015 attacks in Paris that gave the authorities power to search any premises without judicial oversight.

    The implementation of this logic continues today. At the time of writing, denunciations of Israel’s assault on Gaza continue to be spuriously tied to support for “terrorism”.

    Hamas is a terrorist organisation. But that should not see Palestinian civilians – nor supporters of their rights – labelled as potential terrorists. Yet student protesters in the US have been threatened with deportation, financial ruin and even imprisonment.

    The term “terrorism” contains within it a power to dress state repression as a proportionate response to emergency. In El Salvador, we have seen how counterterrorism is being applied as an emergency means to solve the country’s organised crime problem.

    Nayib Bukele’s government has sent countless criminals to the Terrorism Confinement Centre mega-prison in Tecoluca. It has also condemned many innocent civilians to a parallel fate, with little-to-no chance of redress or due process.

    The tragic consequences of state crackdowns against those spuriously labelled as “terrorists” lingers in the historical memory of Brazil. This new bill moves to the Senate at a time of renewed culturing reckoning with the consequences of Brazil’s repressive campaigns under the military dictatorship of 1964 to 1985.

    Brazil should recognise its fortune in never having truly adopted the discourse of the war on terror. Now, it should not adopt an evolved discourse of counterterrorism to address the very serious – but very separate – problem of organised crime.

    In the name of order and progress, and with an eye towards civilians who would ultimately pay the price, this bill cannot be allowed to become law.

    James Fitzgerald does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Brazil’s dangerous flirtation with counterterrorism – https://theconversation.com/brazils-dangerous-flirtation-with-counterterrorism-258347

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: New industrial strategy brings Rachel Reeves’ securonomics to life – but will it protect Britain from more supply chain shocks?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Phil Tomlinson, Professor of Industrial Strategy, Co-Director Centre for Governance, Regulation and Industrial Strategy (CGR&IS), University of Bath

    Peter Titmuss/Shutterstock

    Brexit, COVID, the war in Ukraine and now Trump’s tariffs have all highlighted how vulnerable life in the UK is to disruptions in trade. Everyday items that people rely on can be subject to major shortages, delays and price rises, due to something as simple as a ship getting stuck in a canal.

    This is because the UK is hugely reliant on other countries to provide much of what it needs. Medical supplies, cars, electronics and fruit are just a few of Britain’s favourite things that it tends to buy in from elsewhere.

    Global supply chains deliver lower prices and wider choice to consumers but they are also often highly complex. In the car industry for example, components may move within and between companies and cross national boundaries many times, before ending up in the final assembled vehicle. This can make them vulnerable.

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    In response to the disruption of recent years, Chancellor Rachel Reeves has long been arguing for what she calls “securonomics” – investing in domestic energy sources and resilient networks. So perhaps it was no surprise that the British government’s new industrial strategy plans emphasise the importance of supply chain security.

    A new industrial competitiveness scheme for example, is designed to cut energy costs for the UK’s most energy intensive firms, which manufacture things like steel, ceramics and glass. This should help domestic supply capacity.



    Read more:
    UK plan to cut energy bills for industrial firms threatens to leave small businesses out in the cold

    A reported £600 million has also been allocated to develop the UK’s logistics industry. And there is a proposal for a “national supply chain centre” to identify weaknesses, enhance domestic capability and build strategic international partnerships. Vulnerabilities and dependencies will also be more closely monitored.

    Another focus will be to diversify critical supply chains by reducing the UK’s dependence on single supplier nations (such as China for rare earth elements or semiconductors). One option should be strengthening alliances with friendly nations (known as “friendshoring”) with the aim of embedding supply chains in places that can be relied upon.

    The recently announced trade deals with the US and India, and signs of greater cooperation with the EU do offer some promise in this area. Trade deals help with supply chain cooperation, but could go further and include resilience initiatives (such as creating joint stockpiles of things like critical minerals) to reduce disruption in the future.

    An increased supply of cyber security.
    metamorworks/Shutterstock

    Manufacturing from home

    On the domestic front, the UK could still do more to incentivise “reshoring” (bringing some manufacturing or production of goods back to the UK). Reversing decades of decline in these sectors would be challenging, and require a long-term investment in domestic capacity and skills. But it could also deliver a boost to jobs and growth, potentially in parts of the UK which need it most.

    Given recent geopolitics, the government has also prioritised strengthening the defence supply chain, allocating £173 million of new funding on defence infrastructure and skills. Developments are are at an early stage, but the recent UK-EU security and defence partnership is a welcome start. And more work will be needed to make UK-EU collaboration on building a resilient defence industry across Europe a reality.

    Supply chains within that industry (and others, such as healthcare) can be vulnerable to cyberattacks and economic coercion from malicious groups and hostile foreign states. So enhancing cybersecurity in logistics and infrastructure will also be critical.

    This will mean better protection for ports, customs systems and logistics software. There is some limited additional funding on offer for this, but more will be required, which in turn will open up new opportunities for firms in the cyber industry. Indeed, a “cyber cluster” of businesses is already emerging in central England from the government defence and technology campus at Porton Down in Wiltshire across to GCHQ – the national centre for intelligence and security – in Gloucestershire.

    But with still much to do, overall Reeves has been right to stress the importance of supply chains. They are crucial to people’s jobs and homes, the medicines they need and the food they eat. And supply chain security is not just an economic issue. It is a strategic imperative for safeguarding the UK, its businesses and the welfare of its citizens.

    The tone of the new industrial strategy reflects Reeves’s “securonomics” rhetoric. But how far this goes in actually strengthening supply chains and boosting their resilience remains open to question, especially in the context of limited resources and a chancellor keen to build a reputation for fiscal prudence.

    Phil Tomlinson receives funding from the Innovation and Research Caucus (IRC).

    David Bailey receives funding from the ESRC’s UK in a Changing Europe programme.

    Paddy Bradley is affiliated with the National Innovation Centre for Rural Enterprise based at Newcastle University.
    He is Chair of TransWilts Community Interest Company which aims to increase public use of trains and buses in the Wiltshire area.
    He is Chair of Governors of Wiltshire College and University Centre.

    – ref. New industrial strategy brings Rachel Reeves’ securonomics to life – but will it protect Britain from more supply chain shocks? – https://theconversation.com/new-industrial-strategy-brings-rachel-reeves-securonomics-to-life-but-will-it-protect-britain-from-more-supply-chain-shocks-258410

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US attack on Iran lacks legal justification and could lead to more nuclear proliferation

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David Hastings Dunn, Professor of International Politics in the Department of Political Science and International Studies, University of Birmingham

    After a stern warning from Donald Trump, Israel and Iran appear finally to be observing a US-brokered ceasefire announced by Donald Trump overnight on June 23. But just as it remains unclear what the state of the conflict is, many other uncertainties remain when it comes to the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

    We still don’t know the extent to which Iran’s stock of enriched uranium and the capability to use it have been destroyed. But leaving aside such practical considerations, the US bombing raid also constituted an attack on the prevailing international legal order.

    In some ways, the US actions echo the 1981 Israeli strike on Osirak when the Israeli Air Force attacked and partially destroyed Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor, killing ten Iraqi soldiers and one French technician.

    However, the US attack can be seen as more serious because it has been launched in a far more fragile and geopolitical environment. Moreover, the state violating the legal rules is the erstwhile guardian of the legal order –– the USA.

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    The attacks appear to be the logical follow through of Trump’s withdrawal from the joint comprehensive plan of action (JCPOA) in 2018. This was the Obama-era agreement that significantly limited Iran’s enrichment of nuclear material. For Trump, that negotiated deal was imperfect, as it relied on ongoing Iranian restraint. His decision to unleash US bombers was designed to end the nascent Iranian nuclear threat once and for all.

    But such unilateral actions rarely result in such black and white results. And this situation shows every indication of being no different. It is for this reason that negotiated solutions and agreed legal frameworks are generally regarded as better long-term solutions than military force.

    A significant inhibition on the use of force to remove nuclear threats has been its lack of justification under international law. When the administration of George W Bush decided to launch its invasion of Iraq in 2003, the US, UK and Australian governments that spearheaded the invasion relied on the express legal justification that Iraq was already in breach of existing UN security council resolutions that required it to be disarmed of all weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

    For his part, Trump relied on the argument that Iran’s nuclear facilities already posed an imminent threat to US security. This argument had been undermined by none other than Trump’s director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, just weeks previously.

    Gabbard testified before Congress in March that the US “continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorised the nuclear weapons programme he suspended in 2003”.

    Tulsi Gabbard delivers the annual threat assessment in March 2025.

    Trump, who has a habit of ignoring his intelligence community, dismissed Gabbard’s assessment saying, “I don’t care what she said. I think they’re very close to having it”.

    No legal justification

    One thing that is striking about the June 22 US bombing campaign is the cursory attention given to any substantive legal justification. It’s a distinct contrast to Bush’s attempts – however much this strained the law to breaking point – to justify his 2003 use of force.

    The US ambassador to the United Nations, Dorothy Camille Shea, made only the most limited of references to the legality of the action in her speech to the UN security council a day after the US strikes.

    George W Bush’s ‘Mission accomplished’ speech.

    In our book Drones, Force, and Law we demonstrate how the defining mark of an international society is that states recognise the need to give an account of their behaviour in terms of the accepted legal rules.

    Even when policymakers know that they are breaking established interpretations of the law, they rarely admit this publicly. They seek to offer a legal justification – however strained and implausible – that is in conformity with the rules.

    If a state openly admitted that it was violating the law, giving a justification for its conduct only in terms of that state’s values and beliefs, then it would be treating others with contempt. It would, to quote the respected Australian international relations theorist, Hedley Bull, “place in jeopardy all the settled expectations that states have about one another’s behaviour”.

    This is exactly what Trump is doing by not seeking to expressly justify the US’ use of force in legal terms. This invites others to mount a broader assault on international law itself as something that is both fragile and hypocritical in the hands of the powerful.

    Unintended consequences

    The US has justified its attack as aimed at preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. But a perverse consequence of the attack is that it is likely to further erode the norm against proliferation. There are two key arguments here.

    The first is that all three Iranian facilities attacked were, before Israel initially attacked Iran on June 12, under International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. So, by attacking these installations, the US – like Israel four decades ago with its attack against Osirak – was signalling that it had no confidence in the multilateral mechanisms of non-proliferation. It was essentially saying that it has to rely on unilateral action.

    The second consequence is that a strike aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons may instead push it – and others – to accelerate weaponisation efforts. These US attacks may confirm for many the earlier lessons from Iraq, as well as subsequently in Libya and Ukraine. States without nuclear weapons are vulnerable to regime change or military action.

    If this is the lesson that is drawn by those who live in dangerous neighbourhoods and who are increasingly worried about their security, then the US action could serve as a further spur to nuclear proliferation.

    Trump has shown a worrying propensity to ignore legal constraints on his power both domestically and internationally. This action, less than six months into his administration, is an alarming harbinger of his contempt for the internationally agreed legal rules restricting the use of force.

    David Hastings Dunn has previously received funding from the ESRC, the Gerda Henkel Foundation, the Open Democracy Foundation and has previously been both a NATO and a Fulbright Fellow.

    Nicholas Wheeler has formally received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council and the Open Society Foundations.

    – ref. US attack on Iran lacks legal justification and could lead to more nuclear proliferation – https://theconversation.com/us-attack-on-iran-lacks-legal-justification-and-could-lead-to-more-nuclear-proliferation-259638

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Is your cat vocal or quiet? The explanation could be in their genes

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Grace Carroll, Lecturer in Animal Behaviour and Welfare, School of Psychology, Queen’s University Belfast

    savitskaya iryna/Shutterstock

    If you’ve ever shared your home with more than one cat, you’ll know how different their personalities can be. One might chirp for food, purr loudly on your lap and greet visitors at the door. Another might prefer quiet observation from a distance.

    So why do some cats become chatty companions while others seem more reserved?

    A recent study led by wildlife researcher Yume Okamoto and their colleagues at Kyoto University suggests that part of the answer may lie in cat genes.

    Cat owners from across Japan were asked to complete a questionnaire about their cat (the Feline Behavioural Assessment and Research Questionnaire), and to take a cheek swab from their pet to provide a DNA sample. The survey included questions about a range of cat behaviour, including purring and vocalisations directed at people.

    The researchers in the recent Japanese study focused on the cats’ androgen receptor (AR) gene, located on the X chromosome. This gene helps regulate the body’s response to hormones such as testosterone and contains a section where a DNA sequence is repeated. AR is an essential part of vertebrate biology.

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    The most ancient form of AR appeared in the common ancestor of all jawed vertebrates, over 450 million years ago. AR controls the formation of male reproductive organs, secondary sexual characteristics and reproductive behaviour. The number of these sequences alters how responsive the gene is. Shorter repeats make the receptor more sensitive to androgens. In other species, including humans and dogs, shorter repeats in the AR gene have been linked with increased aggression and extraversion.

    Among 280 spayed or neutered cats, those with the short AR gene variant purred more often. Males with the variant also scored higher for directed vocalisations such as meowing to be fed or let out. Females with the same genotype, however, were more aggressive towards strangers. Meanwhile, cats with the longer, less active version of the gene tended to be quieter. This variant was more common in pedigree breeds, which are typically bred for docility.

    Could you resist this kitten’s meowing?
    digidreamgrafix/Shutterstock

    Domestication is generally thought to have increased vocal behaviour in cats, so it may seem odd that the version of the gene linked to increased communication and assertiveness is the one also found in wild species such as lynx.

    But this study doesn’t tell a straightforward narrative about how cat domestication selects for sociable traits. Instead, it points to a more complex picture. One where certain ancestral traits like aggression may still be useful, especially in high-stress or resource-scarce domestic environments.

    Some animals spend a lot of time around humans because they are attracted by our resources rather than bred as companion animals or farmed. Urban gulls offer an interesting example of how close proximity to humans doesn’t always make animals more docile. In cities, herring and lesser black-backed gulls (both often referred to as seagulls) have become bolder and more aggressive.

    Researchers at Liverpool John Moores University found that urban gulls were less fearful of humans and more prone to squabbling compared to their rural counterparts. In urban areas, where food is highly contested, being assertive gets results. Gulls are often vilified in the UK press during breeding season as urban villains, swooping down to snatch your lunch or chase pedestrians. This suggests that life alongside humans can sometimes favour more confrontational behaviour.

    The parallels with cats raise broader questions about how environment and genes shape behaviour. Okamoto and colleagues’ findings may reflect a trade-off. Traits linked to the short AR variant, such as greater vocalisation or assertiveness, might offer advantages in gaining human attention in uncertain or competitive settings. But these same traits may also manifest as aggression, suggesting that domestication can produce a mix of desirable and challenging traits.

    It’s worth bearing in mind that this kind of variation between individuals is fundamental to the evolution of species. Without variation in behaviour, species would struggle to adapt to changing environments. For cats, this means there may be no single ideal temperament, but rather a range of traits that prove useful under different domestic conditions.

    From cats to gulls, life alongside humans doesn’t always produce gentler animals. Sometimes, a little pushiness pays off.

    Grace Carroll does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is your cat vocal or quiet? The explanation could be in their genes – https://theconversation.com/is-your-cat-vocal-or-quiet-the-explanation-could-be-in-their-genes-259402

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A border conflict may cost the Thai prime minister her job

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Petra Alderman, Manager of the Saw Swee Hock Southeast Asia Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science

    The fate of Thailand’s prime minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is hanging in the balance after only ten months in office. A recent flare-up in a historical border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand could become her ultimate undoing.

    Paetongtarn has been criticised for her handling of the conflict after tensions escalated in May when a Cambodian soldier was killed in a fire exchange with Thai troops.

    One of Paetongtarn’s sore points is the longstanding close relationship between her father Thaksin Shinawatra and the former Cambodian prime minister and current president of the Senate, Hun Sen.

    Thaksin spent 15 years in self-imposed exile after he was ousted as Thailand’s prime minister in a 2006 military coup. Hun Sen enabled Thaksin to use Cambodia as a frequent base for meeting political allies during his exile. He even named Thaksin his special advisor.

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    Following Thaksin’s return to Thailand in August 2023, after which he spent six months in detention, Hun Sen visited Thaksin within days of his release on parole. This further buttressed the relationship between the two.

    Conservative Thais have used this closeness to criticise Paetongtarn and her government for being “too soft” in their dealings with Cambodia. But things turned particularly ugly on June 18 when an audio recording of Paetongtarn’s 17-minute phone call with Hun Sen was leaked via his official Facebook page.

    In the recording, Paetongtarn refers to Hun Sen in familial terms as “uncle” and offers to “take care of” anything he might want in exchange for a peaceful resolution to the border conflict.

    She also disparages a senior Thai army general, Lt Gen Boonsin Padklang, who oversees the border region. This is a dangerous move in a country where the military has considerable political clout and a history of successful military interventions against the Shinawatras.

    The leak has had a chilling effect on the close personal relations between the Shinawatras and Hun Sen. Its domestic effects have also been nothing short of disastrous for Paetongtarn.

    It came at a time of deteriorating relations between Paetongtarn’s Pheu Thai party and Bhumjaithai, its largest coalition partner. Bhumjaithai used the leaked audio recording to exit the ruling coalition on June 18, leaving Paetongtarn with a slim governing majority amid a major political crisis.

    She is now facing a string of popular protests from across the political spectrum and mounting calls by the opposition to resign.

    Paetongtarn has issued a public apology and arranged a call with Boonsin to explain her conversation with Hun Sen. On June 20, she also made a hasty trip to the border area to appear alongside Boonsin in a show of unity.

    But none of these actions are likely to repair the damage. Paetongtarn now has three options.

    Paetongtarn’s three options

    Her first option is to dig in and continue as prime minister, a path she seems to have settled on for now. This won’t guarantee her long-term survival. Her coalition, which has been cobbled together on the back of political necessity and controversial dealmaking rather than loyalty and shared policy agendas, is still fragile.

    In the wake of Bhumjaithai’s exit, other coalition partners held internal party meetings to discuss whether to follow suit or continue to stick with the embattled prime minister. For now, all remaining coalition partners have pledged their support, probably in exchange for some of the cabinet positions left vacant by Bhumjaithai.

    The current cabinet reshuffle, due to be unveiled by June 27, might paper over the coalition cracks. But it won’t resolve all problems. At least three MPs from the Democrat party, Pheu Thai’s third-largest coalition partner, have signalled they would resign should their party stick with Paentongtarn.

    Pheu Thai’s new largest coalition partner, the ultra-conservative United Thai Nation (UTN) party, might also cause further trouble.

    The party was initially set to push for Paentongtarn’s resignation in exchange for preserving the coalition arrangements. This ultimately did not happen, but Paetongtarn cannot rest on her laurels. UTN is internally fractured, and one faction’s exit could destabilise the entire government.

    Even if Paetongtarn manages to keep the coalition together, she could still be brought down by legal means. Several Bhumjaithai-aligned senators have lodged respective petitions with the Constitutional Court and the National Anti-Corruption Commission to investigate Paetongtarn for ethical misconduct.

    This could lead to her impeachment and eventual dismissal, as in the case of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin. Other legal challenges are also mounting.

    And then there is always the possibility of another coup. The military brought down the governments of Paetongtarn’s father and later her aunt Yingluck in 2014.

    Paetongtarn’s second option is to resign, making way for parliament to select a new prime minister. The selection would have to be made from a list of prime ministerial candidates submitted to the Election Commission before the 2023 election.

    Pheu Thai originally fielded three prime ministerial candidates, the maximum number permitted by law. With Srettha and Paetongtarn out of the game, Chaikasem Nitisiri would be Pheu Thai’s only prime ministerial option.

    However, Chaikasem is rumoured to suffer from a long-term ill health, and Pheu Thai would still need to muster sufficient support from its coalition partners. This could prove difficult as UTN is one of the only coalition parties left that still has a viable prime ministerial candidate. It could use this situation to try and take over the premiership.

    Under the third option, Paetongtarn could dissolve parliament and call a snap election. This is perhaps her least attractive option.

    The People’s party, the progressive successor of the Move Forward party that beat Pheu Thai to first place in the 2023 election, is enjoying a considerable surge in popularity. Going to the polls could prove too risky, not only for Pheu Thai but also for the entire conservative establishment.



    Read more:
    Thailand’s conservative elites oust prime minister and ban opposition

    None of these options are particularly promising, but they carry an important lesson about the volatility of political dealmaking. Whether Paetongtarn and – more crucially – her father will learn this lesson remains to be seen. In the meantime, all eyes will be on Thailand and the country’s military.

    Petra Alderman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A border conflict may cost the Thai prime minister her job – https://theconversation.com/a-border-conflict-may-cost-the-thai-prime-minister-her-job-259532

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Dementia: are younger generations really less likely to develop the disorder, as a recent study has claimed?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Clarissa Giebel, Senior Research Fellow in the Institute of Population Health, NIHR Applied Research Collaboration North West Coast, University of Liverpool

    The study revealed that dementia cases decreased for each subsequent generation. AtlasStudio/ Shutterstock

    Dementia affects over 57 million people worldwide – and this number is only projected to grow. By 2030, 78 million people are estimated to have dementia. By 2050, it’s projected that number will reach 139 million people.

    Despite this, a surprising new study has suggested that dementia risk has actually declined with each generation. However, there are good reasons to be sceptical of this finding.

    The researchers analysed data from 62,437 people aged 70 and over. Data was collected from three longitudinal cohort studies on ageing, including one conducted in the US, one in Europe and one from England.

    To conduct their analysis, the researchers compared probable dementia diagnoses from people born in eight different generation cohorts. The people in the first cohort were born in 1890-1913, while those in the most recent cohort were born in 1944-48.

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    The researchers employed an algorithm that suggested probable dementia diagnosis. This was based on participants’ demographic characteristics, as well as their cognitive performance and everyday functioning skills (including how well they were able to perform daily functions, such as washing and feeding, and how well they could remember things). These are standard assessment tools used in clinical practice to diagnose dementia.

    To then validate the algorithm’s projections on probable dementia cases, the predictions were compared against a sub-sample of participants from the US Aging, Demographics and Memory study who had a clinical diagnosis of dementia.

    The participants in this study had undergone a rigorous three- to four-hour cognitive assessment. The algorithm used to create dementia projections showed an over 85% agreement with clinical diagnosis data from that sub-sample data.

    Once dementia status was calculated, the authors computed two models to ascertain the relationship between age, cohort and dementia onset. They also included gross domestic product (GDP) in their analyses, as there’s a correlation between GDP and health – with research showing that people in higher-income nations tend to be healthier than those living in lower-income nations.

    Dementia cases fell across the generations – with those born between 1944and 1948 having the lowest risk.
    Halfpoint/ Shutterstock

    Their findings revealed that dementia cases decreased for each subsequent generation. For instance, in the US, the algorithm indicated that 25% of people born between 1890-1912 developed dementia, while only 15% of those born in the most recent cohort (1939-1943) developed dementia.

    In England, almost 16% of people born between 1924-28 were indicated to have developed dementia, compared with around 15% in those born between 1934-38. This effect was also apparently more pronounced for women than for men.

    It remains unclear why dementia cases fell across the generations, with more recent cohorts having reduced dementia cases.

    Projected diagnoses

    What does this mean? And how does this compare against existing projections?

    While the authors used a large sample from three established ageing research cohorts, the findings are based on data from high-income countries only.

    It’s well known that dementia can be better diagnosed and cared for in high-income countries, where there are more and better healthcare services and professionals. Dementia is hugely stigmatised in low- and middle-income countries as well. As a result, many people are not as aware of dementia as people living in high-income societies.

    This means people in lower-income countries may know less about the associated risk factors for dementia and are less likely to receive a diagnosis and support. This is particularly relevant given the fact that most people with dementia reside in low- and middle-income countries.

    With a lack of cohort data on older adults and dementia cases in low- and middle-income countries, the findings from this study do not provide representative projections on dementia diagnoses globally.

    It’s also important to consider the methods the authors used in their study. The authors used a prediction model. Although this model had high agreement with clinical diagnosis, there are still cases of dementia that will have been missed out as a result.

    Similarly, the authors did not distinguish between dementia subtypes in their modelling. Dementia is just an umbrella term. About 60-70% of dementia cases are actually Alzheimer’s disease.

    But there are also many rarer subtypes – such as Lewy Body dementia or semantic dementia. Each subtype brings with it different symptoms. A generic model is unlikely to pick up each subtype dementia case correctly.

    All these factors may possibly explain how the study came to their conclusions.

    Dementia cases worldwide are actually predicted to increase. As such, the findings from this study should be considered with caution. It may not be the case that dementia prevalence continues to fall for more recently born generations.

    Part of the reason for these projections is due to the fact that people are living longer and growing older. Dementia primarily affects people aged over 65, so with more people living to be over 65 this means that more people will be at risk of developing the disorder.

    The world population is growing, too. So naturally we’re going to see more people living with dementia – particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where people may have less knowledge of dementia symptoms and may be less able to address the modifiable risk factors linked to greater risk, due to poor healthcare infrastructure.

    We know that overall, people from more socioeconomically disadvantaged backgrounds experience greater health inequalities – and these health inequalities may contribute to increased risk of dementia. But as this factor was not taken into account in the study, it’s difficult to know whether there really will be any differences in the projected number of dementia cases in younger generations.

    Clarissa Giebel receives funding from the ESRC and the NIHR. She sits on the Scientific Advisory Committee of the Lewy Body Society.

    – ref. Dementia: are younger generations really less likely to develop the disorder, as a recent study has claimed? – https://theconversation.com/dementia-are-younger-generations-really-less-likely-to-develop-the-disorder-as-a-recent-study-has-claimed-258429

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Nice was right to say no – for now – to new Alzheimer’s drugs

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Paul Atkinson, Senior Research Fellow, History of Health and Medicine, University of Liverpool

    The UK’s National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (Nice) has declined to recommend two new Alzheimer’s drugs for routine NHS use in England. While disappointing for some families affected by dementia, this decision reflects a cautious and evidence-based approach that protects patients and public funds.

    The drugs in question – lecanemab, made by Eisai, and donanemab made by Eli Lilly – have received significant attention, with headlines hailing them as “breakthrough” treatments and “miracle” drugs. However, Nice has a long history of closely scrutinising new dementia drugs – and, as in previous cases, it has raised important questions about how much benefits these medicines actually provide.

    The main claim is that these drugs can delay the progression of Alzheimer’s by about four to six months in people with early-stage disease. That’s not nothing – but it’s also not the dramatic shift some headlines imply.

    It’s also important to distinguish between clinical trial results and how treatments perform in everyday care. Trial conditions are controlled and selective, whereas the NHS treats a much broader mix of patients.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    There are other factors to consider, too. These drugs come with risks – including the potential for brain swelling and bleeding – and require invasive testing, such as lumbar puncture or regular brain scans, before and during treatment. The infusions must also be delivered at a hospital infusion over many months. For some patients, that burden may outweigh the modest benefit.

    Another issue is that we don’t yet know whether the benefits last beyond the 18-month trial period. Nice must base its decisions on long-term projections, using well established tools such as the quality-adjusted life year to weigh the health benefits against the cost to the NHS. These decisions often involve complex models – and reasonable people may interpret the evidence differently.

    Cost plays a role too. In the US, the drugs are priced at up to £25,000 per patient per year. While companies can offer discounts to the NHS, Nice must still consider whether the same money might do more good elsewhere in the health system.

    In this case, Nice concluded that the benefits of the new Alzheimer’s treatments are still too small to justify the additional costs at the current price point – a decision supported by some experts.

    Tom Dening, professor of dementia research at the University of Nottingham, described the benefits as “minimal” and warned they could distract from other priorities, such as providing good care and support for people already living with dementia.

    A person receiving the treatment would need to go for regular infusions.
    Laura v.d. Broek/Shutterstock.com

    Heated debate

    Nonetheless, the debate has become heated. Some drug companies have argued that the UK system is flawed, suggesting that even offering their drug for free would not be enough to secure approval. But this misunderstands how Nice works. Evaluating the full cost – not just of the drug, but of scans, infusions and monitoring – is not a flaw, it’s part of responsible decision-making.

    There are echoes here of earlier disputes from the 2000s when companies tried to publicly pressure Nice to change its decisions. However, history suggests that this strategy rarely works. Ministers have consistently supported Nice’s independence, and the agency’s record shows that it usually says “yes” – or at least yes under certain conditions – even to very expensive drugs, where the evidence supports their use.

    The current decision is still technically a “final draft”. Both companies have until July 3 to comment or appeal. In 2007, Eisai took Nice to court – and lost. This time, an appeal is more likely.

    Understanding the principles behind Nice’s decision helps put this outcome in context. These are not decisions taken lightly. They reflect a careful balance of evidence, risk, cost and benefit to patients – and, crucially, a commitment to fairness in how NHS resources are used.

    Paul Atkinson received funding from the Wellcome Trust for the research on which this article draws.

    Sally Sheard has received funding from Wellcome, NIHR, UKRI and the PGH Foundation.

    – ref. Why Nice was right to say no – for now – to new Alzheimer’s drugs – https://theconversation.com/why-nice-was-right-to-say-no-for-now-to-new-alzheimers-drugs-259475

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Non-traditional sports like pickleball and bouldering are helping Canadians get active this summer

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Sarah Woodruff, Professor, Director of the Community Health, Environment, and Wellness Lab, University of Windsor

    While gym memberships and traditional sports will always have their place, more people are choosing leisure activities that are fun, flexible and social. (Shutterstock)

    On a warm summer Canadian evening, you might hear the pop-pop of a pickleball game, spot someone scaling a climbing wall at a community centre or catch players rallying on a padel court — a fast-growing racquet sport that looks like a mix between tennis and squash.

    What may once have seemed like fringe hobbies are now part of a growing movement. Canadians are seeking alternative ways to stay physically active, connect socially and improve their mental and physical well-being.

    While gym memberships and traditional sports will always have their place, more people are choosing leisure activities that are fun, flexible and social.

    Activities like pickleball, climbing, padel, disc golf, cricket, ultimate frisbee and stand-up paddleboarding are gaining momentum, offering a fresh approach to fitness that suits all ages, skill levels and motivations.

    Why are these activities booming?

    The COVID-19 pandemic played a big role in reshaping how people get physically active. With gyms closed and organized sports on hold, people turned to parks, driveways and community spaces for movement.

    What began as temporary adjustments soon evolved into permanent shifts for some. Many people realized that being active didn’t have to be rigid or repetitive; it could be more social and genuinely enjoyable. TikTok videos and Instagram reels showcasing everything from “how to videos” to “beginner fails” have also helped pique curiosity and increase participation in these activities.

    According to Pickleball Canada, 1.54 million Canadians are playing the sport in 2025 — a 57 per cent increase in participation over the past three years. Meanwhile, Padel, which is already popular in Europe and Latin America, is gaining ground in major Canadian cities like Toronto and Vancouver because of how accessible and easy to learn it is.

    Sales increases in paddleboards, the debut of sport climbing at the Tokyo 2020/2021 Olympics and the increase in popularity of spikeball (also known as roundnet) all signal a broader shift toward fun, accessible and social forms of physical activity.

    More than just exercise

    The physical and mental health benefits of being physically active are well established, and yet many Canadians are still not active enough to meet the 24-Hour Movement Guidelines. The guidelines recommend that adults get at least 150 minutes of moderate-to-vigorous aerobic activity per week, perform muscle-strengthening activities twice a week, limit sedentary time and aim for seven to nine hours of quality sleep each night.

    Alternative sports may help address this gap by offering new routes into physical activity. Beyond the well-known physical health benefits, such as cardiovascular health, strength, agility and co-ordination, these activities are equally effective at supporting mental health and social well-being.

    For example, a recent study by Canadian researchers looked at 28 studies that investigated health and/or well-being of adult pickleball players. The results suggested positive social and psychological effects — in addition to health and fitness benefits — were evident, particularly for older adults.



    Read more:
    Light exercise can yield significant cognitive benefits, new research shows

    Sports like pickleball, padel and ultimate frisbee thrive on social connection, as players and partners often chat, laugh, build relationships and have potlucks or social time afterwards, all which help build community and foster a sense of belonging.

    Other activities, such as bouldering and climbing, encourage mental concentration, resilience and problem-solving, as routes are often designed to be attempted several times before being successful. This helps get people stronger and more confident, as they learn to keep trying even when something feels hard at first. This sense of progress and enjoyment keeps people motivated.

    When an activity is fun, social and rewarding, people are more likely to stick with it over time. When people want to be active, rather than feeling like they have to, they’re more likely to reap the long-term benefits of being active. This is known as intrinsic motivation, a key factor for maintaining long-term physical activity because people are more likely to do something they genuinely like.

    Because these alternative sports are fun, low-pressure and easy to try at any level, they offer a great starting point for anyone, regardless of age, experience or ability.

    Embracing the movement

    Across Canada, cities are increasingly investing in these growing recreational activities. Municipal parks and empty buildings are rapidly being repurposed for new pickleball and padel courts. According to an industry journal, the number of climbing gyms across Canada increased from 136 in 2021 to 169 in 2024.

    Part of the appeal lies in accessibility. These types of activities are beginner-friendly. Unlike many traditional sports where skills and speed are expected upfront, there is no need to be in peak physical shape or have the best gear. Most people can try these activities with little more than a pair of shoes and a rental.

    These activities are also adaptable and low-impact, making them accessible to a wide range of participants. They’re often intergenerational and focused more on enjoyment than competition.

    Just as importantly, they support physical literacy — the confidence and competence to stay active throughout one’s life. Building physical literacy early and sustaining it throughout adulthood is a cornerstone of long-term health promotion and chronic disease prevention.

    If you’ve been meaning to try one of these activities, this summer might be your chance. After all, fitness doesn’t have to be a chore; sometimes it starts with just showing up and saying yes to something different.

    Sarah Woodruff receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and We Spark Health Institute.

    – ref. Non-traditional sports like pickleball and bouldering are helping Canadians get active this summer – https://theconversation.com/non-traditional-sports-like-pickleball-and-bouldering-are-helping-canadians-get-active-this-summer-258771

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to deal with racism in an intimate relationship

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Maya A. Yampolsky, Associate Professor, School of Psychology, Université Laval

    Intimate racism can take many forms, ranging from hostile insults and racial slurs to more subtle, pervasive everyday microaggressions. (Shutterstock)

    Relationships between people of different ethnic or racial backgrounds have become increasingly common. Research indicates that more adolescents and young adults are entering into inter-ethnic relationships, and survey data from the United States shows that an increasing number of people have a favourable view of these relationships.

    Inter-ethnic relationships are often seen as an act of love that conquers racism since people from different backgrounds overcome marginalization to create inter-ethnic families.

    While these bonds can potentially decrease prejudice against members of racialized groups, cross-cultural connections are also vulnerable to the far-reaching influence of racism.

    No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.

    Read more from Quarter Life:

    Intimate racism

    Racism is a system of domination and oppression that is deeply rooted in colonization and slavery, where whiteness was idealized and every other ethnic group was dehumanized. Racialized people who are not white are also susceptible to endorsing this false hierarchy, leading to racism between racialized minority groups.

    We use the term “intimate racism” (inspired by the term intimate partner violence) to highlight that racism exists in close relationships, and that it requires special attention.

    Intimate racism can take many forms, ranging from hostile insults and racial slurs to more subtle, pervasive everyday microaggressions (for example, a parent stereotyping their child as less smart because of their racialized identity).

    Intimate racism can also touch on prejudices against racialized people that are particular to physical and emotional intimacy, which show up differently in our familial and romantic relationships.

    Racism in family

    From childhood, we depend on our parents and family to support and guide us, helping us form secure attachments as well as stable and loving bonds within our families and with others as we grow and expand our social connections.

    These days, multiracial families are more common. However, parents of multiracial children may not always understand their children’s realities with racism, they may not be able to support their racialized children against racism and they may discriminate against their racialized children, shaking the very foundations of the family bonds.

    These days, multiracial families are more common. However, parents of multiracial children may not always understand their children’s realities with racism.
    (Shutterstock)

    Mixed-race children have reported favouritism for lighter skin colour and isolation within their families, as well as having their racial identities denied and stereotyped by family members.

    In a study on microaggressions in families, one mixed-race research participant told researchers:

    “Even though my skin was darker, I had straight hair, I had the white features and I behaved the way a white girl should behave, and so my grandmother always favoured me and was much nicer to me and horrible to my sister.”

    In addition, transracial adoption has a long history of racialized children being forced into white families and institutions in order to erase their heritage and cultural identity.

    This legacy has endured, with many white adoptive families thinking they need to “save” racialized children from their minority families by erasing their backgrounds and cutting them off from their community.

    Racialized adoptees in white families have shared that they experience identity erasure, denial of racism’s existence and microaggressions and insults from the very people who are supposed to protect them. Such experiences expose them to racial isolation and violence.

    Racism in romantic relationships

    Our close relationships are supposed to be safe from racism; our meaningful connections with people who we know accept us, love us and see us for who we are can act as a protection from the harms of oppression.

    So when we experience racism from our loved ones, it is a violation of the shared trust, safety and intimacy that we need from those who are supposed to be closest to us.

    When it comes to romantic partners, our attractions can sometimes be coloured by exposure to media and messages that frame racialized people as “exotic” or inferior.

    People in inter-ethnic romantic relationships have shared experiences where their partner sought them out to fulfil fantasies based on degrading racist sexual stereotypes. Racialized people can also be stereotyped by their partners.

    When people experience intimate racism, they also experience greater distress and trauma and negative impacts on their well-being.
    (Shutterstock)

    These stereotypes can also be echoed by family and friends, who may view an inter-ethnic relationship as unserious and hold negative views of a partner based on racial stereotypes.

    In a study of intimate racism conducted by one of us (Maya A. Yampolsky) and colleagues, a Black participant said: “My former partner accused all Jamaican males of being cheaters and liars.”

    When people experience intimate racism, they also experience greater distress, trauma and negative impacts on their well-being. The impact extends beyond individual hurt to the relationship dynamic, rupturing trust and affection for our loved ones, and leading to strained or even dissolved relationships.

    Groups that are subject to more than one source of marginalization (because of race, gender, class, ability and so on) face multiple oppressions with intimate racism. Racialized women face sexist expectations of submissiveness, and queer racialized people often experience both racism in LGBTQ2S+ spaces and homophobia or transphobia in their racial communities.

    What can you do to address intimate racism?

    There isn’t enough research that looks at resolving intimate racism yet, but we can draw on findings from couples conflict, anti-racism repairs and social therapy for inspiration.

    Interracial couples who value the importance of ethnic identities and multiculturalism are more likely to recognize racism at large, and how it can influence their relationship, which may help prevent intimate racism from showing up in these relationships.

    We know that repairing harm from racism involves acknowledging the impact rather than the intent of our actions, recognizing our own biases and how they appear in our life, apologizing sincerely and committing to changing our behaviour in the future.

    Social therapy can also provide tools to address racial tensions and change harmful relationship dynamics by encouraging open conversations about race, and allowing partners and families to explore how history has shaped their ways of loving, accepting or rejecting one another.

    Ultimately, tackling intimate racism is part of our work to dismantle racism at the roots of all our social institutions so that racism doesn’t creep into our cherished connections.

    Maya A. Yampolsky has received funding from both the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and the Fonds de recherche du Québec.

    Iman Sta-Ali, Libera Amadiwakama Mochihashi, and Renaud Dion-Pons do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How to deal with racism in an intimate relationship – https://theconversation.com/how-to-deal-with-racism-in-an-intimate-relationship-247870

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Turkey is stepping up its influence in west Africa – what’s behind its bid for soft power

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Issouf Binaté, enseignant-chercheur, Université Alassane Ouattara de Bouaké

    Turkey is stepping up its influence in west Africa as the geopolitical and economic landscape in the region shifts. In Senegal, the state-owned Turkish Petroleum Corporation has entered a key partnership in the oil and gas sector. Meanwhile, Karpowership, a company providing electricity via floating power plants, now supplies energy to eight African countries. But Turkey’s not stopping there. As part of its soft power strategy, it is also winning hearts and minds through education and culture while deepening trade and security ties.

    Historian Issouf Binaté, who has studied Turkey’s growing presence in west Africa, breaks down how Ankara is positioning itself as an alternative to both former colonial powers and newer global players competing for influence on the continent.

    What drives Turkey’s growing influence in west Africa?

    Turkey’s foreign policy in west Africa leans on two main pillars.

    One is institutional power, driven by state-backed agencies (embassies, the religious affairs directorate Diyanet, and the economic cooperation agency (TIKA) .

    The other is more grassroots, led by non-state actors such as religious foundations and NGOs.

    These groups laid the groundwork for Turkey’s African expansion long before Ankara officially stepped in.

    A key player in Turkey’s earlier outreach was the Gülen movement, named after preacher Fethullah Gülen (1941–2024). The Gülen movement pioneered Turkey’s soft power approach with “Turkish schools”, starting with the Yavuz Sultan Selim and Yavuz Selim-Bosphore high schools in Dakar in 1997.

    Also at the end of the 1990s a network composed of Turkish business leaders and social activists under the Turkish Confederation of Businessmen and Industrialists, which claimed over 100,000 member companies, expanded Turkey’s influence across Africa. At that time, Turkey had only three diplomatic representations for the whole of sub-Saharan Africa.

    The more recent contact with Africa comes at a time when western hegemony faces growing criticism from a new generation of Africans engaged in decolonial movements. Gülen-affiliated institutions now number 113, alongside religious and secular schools run by other groups like Mahmud Hudayi Vakfi and Hayrat Vakfi. Since the 2016 political rift between Gülen and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, these schools were gradually transferred to Maarif Foundation, Turkey’s state-run overseas education arm.

    Back in 2003, Turkey had only 12 diplomatic missions across Africa. Today, that number has grown to 44, bolstered by Turkish religious foundations (like Mahmud Hudayi Vakfi and Hayrat Vakfi), NGOs, and entrepreneurs who have filled the gap left by the Gülen movement.

    Another powerful player in Turkey’s Africa strategy is Turkish Airlines, now one of the top carriers on the continent. It is now flying to 62 airports in 41 African countries.

    What role do west African students trained in Turkey play?

    By investing in education, Turkey didn’t just open its doors to African students. It also planted the seeds for a long-term influence strategy. These students, and more broadly young African migrants trained in Turkey, are now among the key messengers of “Turkishness” back home.

    In doing so, Ankara is following a familiar path once used by colonial powers. They used student mobility as a powerful tool for their diplomacy.

    This policy of openness took several forms. As early as 1960, it welcomed students from non-self-governing territories in accordance with UN General Assembly resolutions.

    Then, in the 1990s, Turkey continued this effort through a scholarship programme for African students, supported by the Islamic Development Bank. During this period, Turkey launched the Büyük Öğrenci Projesi (Great Student Project), which provided scholarships to international students.

    Starting in 2012, this programme was re-branded as YTB (Yurtdışı Türkler ve Akraba Topluluklar Başkanlığı, or Directorate for Turks Abroad and Related Communities). It introduced reforms, including a digital application process for scholarships via an app on the YTB website. This shift caused a dramatic spike in interest. Applications soared from 10,000 to 155,000 between 2012 and 2020.

    For non-scholarship students, Turkey simplified visa processes, reduced tuition fees, and offered other incentives. These measures contributed to a significant increase in the number of applicants to study in Turkey. As the number of universities in Turkey jumped from 76 to 193 between 2003 and 2015, the country became increasingly attractive.

    By 2017, Turkey had become the 13th most popular destination for students from sub-Saharan Africa, according to Campus France (a platform that supports international students studying in France). By 2019, there were an estimated 61,000 African students studying in Turkey.

    Now, nearly three decades into this strategy, many of these former students are stepping into new roles. They are taking over from Turkish entrepreneurs in fostering socioeconomic ties with Africa. They also act as bridges, promoting Turkish universities and supporting visitors in areas like medical and industrial tourism.

    In Istanbul, some run cargo companies – some of them informal – that ship goods to Africa. Others are working to formalise these ventures and build long-term economic bridges. Groups like Bizim Afrika, a network of African Turkish-speakers, and the Federation of African Students in Turkey (founded in 2019), are playing key roles in shaping this next chapter of Turkey–Africa relations.

    How is Turkey’s strategy in west Africa different from that of China or France?

    In substance, Turkey’s strategy isn’t so different from that of France or China. It also carries traces of colonial thinking, even though its approach leans more on religious soft power like building mosques across Africa. Unlike France, which used force in its colonial past, Turkey is trying to gain influence through other means. It uses familiar tools: embassies, schools, cinema, security services, and development agencies.

    However, Turkey has learned from the criticism faced by western powers at a pivotal moment in Africa’s global relations.

    While access to Europe, the US and Canada has become more difficult due to stricter visa rules, Turkey has opened its doors. It eased visa procedures for African business people, expanded its universities, and promoted medical tourism.

    Turkey has become a hub for several sectors. It’s a major centre for nose surgery (rhinoplasty), hair transplants, and textiles. Its textile industry now supplies traders at Makola Market in Accra, Adjamé’s Forum in Côte d’Ivoire, and the Grand Marché in Bamako.

    Turkey has also capitalised on the security crisis in the Sahel, where France’s military presence has become controversial. It stepped in by selling Bayraktar TB2 drones and offering private security services to some governments.

    Is this Turkish presence set to last?

    Turkey’s presence in Africa is now visible in several symbolic ways. You can see it in Maarif schools, murals at Abidjan airport, the “Le Istanbul” restaurant in Niamey’s government district, or the National Mosque in Accra, modelled after Istanbul’s Blue Mosque.

    Turkey’s engagement is a work in progress. But its outreach to Africa is already yielding results. Trade volume reached US$40.7 billion in 2022. The return of the first waves of African students trained in Turkey has shifted the dynamic. Cooperation no longer relies solely on Turkish business people and social entrepreneurs.

    Even though African elites often speak English, French or Arabic, new voices are emerging. Young people trained in Turkey are beginning to find their place. Many work in import-export, construction, and even Islamic religious leadership. This trend points to promising prospects for long-term ties.

    For Turkey, Africa represents a continent with major economic opportunities. Becoming a trusted partner is now a key goal. On the diplomatic level, Turkey gained observer status at the African Union in 2005 and has hosted Turkey-Africa summits in Istanbul since 2008.

    This growing involvement suggests that Turkey’s role in Africa is likely to last. It will depend on the continent’s market needs, especially at a time when many African countries are rethinking their relationships with traditional western powers and international institutions.

    Issouf Binaté does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Turkey is stepping up its influence in west Africa – what’s behind its bid for soft power – https://theconversation.com/turkey-is-stepping-up-its-influence-in-west-africa-whats-behind-its-bid-for-soft-power-256929

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Turkey is stepping up its influence in west Africa – what’s behind its bid for soft power

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Issouf Binaté, enseignant-chercheur, Université Alassane Ouattara de Bouaké

    Turkey is stepping up its influence in west Africa as the geopolitical and economic landscape in the region shifts. In Senegal, the state-owned Turkish Petroleum Corporation has entered a key partnership in the oil and gas sector. Meanwhile, Karpowership, a company providing electricity via floating power plants, now supplies energy to eight African countries. But Turkey’s not stopping there. As part of its soft power strategy, it is also winning hearts and minds through education and culture while deepening trade and security ties.

    Historian Issouf Binaté, who has studied Turkey’s growing presence in west Africa, breaks down how Ankara is positioning itself as an alternative to both former colonial powers and newer global players competing for influence on the continent.

    What drives Turkey’s growing influence in west Africa?

    Turkey’s foreign policy in west Africa leans on two main pillars.

    One is institutional power, driven by state-backed agencies (embassies, the religious affairs directorate Diyanet, and the economic cooperation agency (TIKA) .

    The other is more grassroots, led by non-state actors such as religious foundations and NGOs.

    These groups laid the groundwork for Turkey’s African expansion long before Ankara officially stepped in.

    A key player in Turkey’s earlier outreach was the Gülen movement, named after preacher Fethullah Gülen (1941–2024). The Gülen movement pioneered Turkey’s soft power approach with “Turkish schools”, starting with the Yavuz Sultan Selim and Yavuz Selim-Bosphore high schools in Dakar in 1997.

    Also at the end of the 1990s a network composed of Turkish business leaders and social activists under the Turkish Confederation of Businessmen and Industrialists, which claimed over 100,000 member companies, expanded Turkey’s influence across Africa. At that time, Turkey had only three diplomatic representations for the whole of sub-Saharan Africa.

    The more recent contact with Africa comes at a time when western hegemony faces growing criticism from a new generation of Africans engaged in decolonial movements. Gülen-affiliated institutions now number 113, alongside religious and secular schools run by other groups like Mahmud Hudayi Vakfi and Hayrat Vakfi. Since the 2016 political rift between Gülen and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, these schools were gradually transferred to Maarif Foundation, Turkey’s state-run overseas education arm.

    Back in 2003, Turkey had only 12 diplomatic missions across Africa. Today, that number has grown to 44, bolstered by Turkish religious foundations (like Mahmud Hudayi Vakfi and Hayrat Vakfi), NGOs, and entrepreneurs who have filled the gap left by the Gülen movement.

    Another powerful player in Turkey’s Africa strategy is Turkish Airlines, now one of the top carriers on the continent. It is now flying to 62 airports in 41 African countries.

    What role do west African students trained in Turkey play?

    By investing in education, Turkey didn’t just open its doors to African students. It also planted the seeds for a long-term influence strategy. These students, and more broadly young African migrants trained in Turkey, are now among the key messengers of “Turkishness” back home.

    In doing so, Ankara is following a familiar path once used by colonial powers. They used student mobility as a powerful tool for their diplomacy.

    This policy of openness took several forms. As early as 1960, it welcomed students from non-self-governing territories in accordance with UN General Assembly resolutions.

    Then, in the 1990s, Turkey continued this effort through a scholarship programme for African students, supported by the Islamic Development Bank. During this period, Turkey launched the Büyük Öğrenci Projesi (Great Student Project), which provided scholarships to international students.

    Starting in 2012, this programme was re-branded as YTB (Yurtdışı Türkler ve Akraba Topluluklar Başkanlığı, or Directorate for Turks Abroad and Related Communities). It introduced reforms, including a digital application process for scholarships via an app on the YTB website. This shift caused a dramatic spike in interest. Applications soared from 10,000 to 155,000 between 2012 and 2020.

    For non-scholarship students, Turkey simplified visa processes, reduced tuition fees, and offered other incentives. These measures contributed to a significant increase in the number of applicants to study in Turkey. As the number of universities in Turkey jumped from 76 to 193 between 2003 and 2015, the country became increasingly attractive.

    By 2017, Turkey had become the 13th most popular destination for students from sub-Saharan Africa, according to Campus France (a platform that supports international students studying in France). By 2019, there were an estimated 61,000 African students studying in Turkey.

    Now, nearly three decades into this strategy, many of these former students are stepping into new roles. They are taking over from Turkish entrepreneurs in fostering socioeconomic ties with Africa. They also act as bridges, promoting Turkish universities and supporting visitors in areas like medical and industrial tourism.

    In Istanbul, some run cargo companies – some of them informal – that ship goods to Africa. Others are working to formalise these ventures and build long-term economic bridges. Groups like Bizim Afrika, a network of African Turkish-speakers, and the Federation of African Students in Turkey (founded in 2019), are playing key roles in shaping this next chapter of Turkey–Africa relations.

    How is Turkey’s strategy in west Africa different from that of China or France?

    In substance, Turkey’s strategy isn’t so different from that of France or China. It also carries traces of colonial thinking, even though its approach leans more on religious soft power like building mosques across Africa. Unlike France, which used force in its colonial past, Turkey is trying to gain influence through other means. It uses familiar tools: embassies, schools, cinema, security services, and development agencies.

    However, Turkey has learned from the criticism faced by western powers at a pivotal moment in Africa’s global relations.

    While access to Europe, the US and Canada has become more difficult due to stricter visa rules, Turkey has opened its doors. It eased visa procedures for African business people, expanded its universities, and promoted medical tourism.

    Turkey has become a hub for several sectors. It’s a major centre for nose surgery (rhinoplasty), hair transplants, and textiles. Its textile industry now supplies traders at Makola Market in Accra, Adjamé’s Forum in Côte d’Ivoire, and the Grand Marché in Bamako.

    Turkey has also capitalised on the security crisis in the Sahel, where France’s military presence has become controversial. It stepped in by selling Bayraktar TB2 drones and offering private security services to some governments.

    Is this Turkish presence set to last?

    Turkey’s presence in Africa is now visible in several symbolic ways. You can see it in Maarif schools, murals at Abidjan airport, the “Le Istanbul” restaurant in Niamey’s government district, or the National Mosque in Accra, modelled after Istanbul’s Blue Mosque.

    Turkey’s engagement is a work in progress. But its outreach to Africa is already yielding results. Trade volume reached US$40.7 billion in 2022. The return of the first waves of African students trained in Turkey has shifted the dynamic. Cooperation no longer relies solely on Turkish business people and social entrepreneurs.

    Even though African elites often speak English, French or Arabic, new voices are emerging. Young people trained in Turkey are beginning to find their place. Many work in import-export, construction, and even Islamic religious leadership. This trend points to promising prospects for long-term ties.

    For Turkey, Africa represents a continent with major economic opportunities. Becoming a trusted partner is now a key goal. On the diplomatic level, Turkey gained observer status at the African Union in 2005 and has hosted Turkey-Africa summits in Istanbul since 2008.

    This growing involvement suggests that Turkey’s role in Africa is likely to last. It will depend on the continent’s market needs, especially at a time when many African countries are rethinking their relationships with traditional western powers and international institutions.

    Issouf Binaté does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Turkey is stepping up its influence in west Africa – what’s behind its bid for soft power – https://theconversation.com/turkey-is-stepping-up-its-influence-in-west-africa-whats-behind-its-bid-for-soft-power-256929

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kenya police brutality – it will take more than laws and public anger to change behaviour

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Oscar Gakuo Mwangi, Adjunct Associate Professor, Departnent of Social Sciences, Pwani University

    Kenya has once again been reminded of brutality within its police force. Two events in mid-June 2025 pointed to the grave challenge that Kenya must confront to reform the service.

    The first was the death in police custody of a teacher and blogger. A few days later a bystander at the scene of a protest in Nairobi was shot and severely injured by police.

    The use of excessive force to disperse and arrest peaceful demonstrators has got worse since the nationwide protests by young Kenyans in June 2024. Police have also been behind disappearances and extrajudicial killings.

    Excesses by the National Police Service have prompted action in the past. Repressive laws have been repealed and mechanisms are in place to identify, report and punish police excesses.

    Wide-ranging policing reforms mandated by the 2010 constitution have also been carried out since 2013. As part of these reforms, the Independent Police Oversight Authority was set up to investigate police wrong-doing. The conviction and dismissal rates are low, however, because of defective prosecutions, poor investigations, witnesses fearing retribution or victimisation, lack of evidence, and lengthy court trials.

    I am a political scientist with a focus on Kenya’s security sector. It is my view that the quest to change police behaviour in Kenya must go beyond the rule book, recriminations and repeated political proclamations of police reform.

    In my view real change will come about only if the state, firstly, puts funds into the recurrent and development expenditures of the police. The aim should be to ensure these institutions are able to enforce compliance and accountability. Secondly, the state needs to strengthen its partnership with local-level civil society organisations affected by policy brutality. And lastly, it must set up digital channels that people can confidently use to lodge their complaints.

    Funding gaps

    The National Police Service is underfunded. This has constrained its ability to maintain law and order. It has:

    • inadequate and poorly maintained equipment and gear

    • insufficient monthly fuel allocations for patrols and other critical functions

    • poor training and operational physical facilities.

    Added to these constraints are dehumanising working conditions and deplorable living conditions. This undermines their morale and ability to deliver quality services.

    Another blow to police morale is the entrenched culture of corruption. Corrupt practices skew recruitment, transfers, deployments, promotions and procurement.

    At the same time, the police service is expected to deal with a host of domestic and global security challenges. These include cybercrimes, cross-border security, violent extremism and terrorism.

    Money needs to be allocated to improve facilities, equipment and gear. This should also enhance its logistical and technological capabilities, and provide affordable and decent housing and medical cover for its officers.

    Providing adequate resources can also counter the culture of corruption, which is often driven by poor renumeration and working conditions.

    Budget allocations should sustain police reforms. This should include:

    Partnerships with communities

    Community policing in Kenya makes a significant contribution to local-level security. This form of policing is citizen-centred with an emphasis on addressing crime risk factors by encouraging citizen participation.

    Also known by its Kiswahili name, Nyumba Kumi, meaning “Ten Households”, the key strategy is anchoring community policing at the household level. Despite several problems associated with formulation and implementation, community policing in Kenya has improved local-level police-community relations in some areas of the country.

    The community policing strategy is aimed at addressing emerging security needs such as infiltration by terrorist groups. It serves the whole of Kenya in terms of local-level security and is viewed as one of the key areas of police reform and a shift to democratic policing.

    Community involvement can address the lack of trust between citizens and police officers due to police bias or brutality. But this is a gradual process that happens through daily interactions between communities and the police.

    Public participation channels

    Public participation is enshrined in Kenya’s constitution as one of the principles and values of good governance. By establishing a complaints and redress mechanism, public participation can become an integral component of promoting effective handling of complaints.

    The constitution has created different institutions to address public complaints. These include the Commission on Administrative Justice (Office of the Ombudsman), Kenya National Commission on Human Rights, and the Independent Police Oversight Authority. Some of these have digital public complaints systems, which provide more confidentiality and better access for people.

    Other channels of handling complaints include civil society actors and the media. Civil society organisations provide civic education and mobilise citizens to take part in monitoring and evaluation government’s performance.

    Making these channels more effective could help absorb public anger that could turn into violence.

    Conclusion

    Police brutality in Kenya has arisen through historical, social, economic and political factors. Mitigating it therefore requires a long-term, combined top-down and bottom-up approach.

    Genuine political support from the country’s political leaders is essential to instil positive attitudes about Kenya’s political and security institutions. It also requires genuine support from local-level or grassroots communities. This, in turn, entails communities trusting each other and building social cohesion.

    Oscar Gakuo Mwangi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kenya police brutality – it will take more than laws and public anger to change behaviour – https://theconversation.com/kenya-police-brutality-it-will-take-more-than-laws-and-public-anger-to-change-behaviour-259327

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –