Category: Australia

  • MIL-OSI Australia: 2025–26 ACT Budget: investing in sport and recreation

    Source: Northern Territory Police and Fire Services

    New and expanding sporting facilities will create more spaces for Canberrans to play, train and come together.

    In brief:

    • The 2025–26 ACT Budget will support new and expanded sports facilities.
    • These include facilities in Taylor and Molonglo.
    • There will also be a boost to the Sports and Recreation Investment Scheme.

    The 2025–26 ACT Budget is investing in sport and recreation infrastructure across Canberra.

    The major investment includes:

    • new playing fields and a pavilion in Taylor, including early planning and design work starting in 2025–26
    • the first stage of the Stromlo District Playing Fields in Molonglo
    • a boost to the Sports and Recreation Investment Scheme to support local clubs and facilities.

    These new and existing venues will create more spaces for communities to play and train together.

    They will help meet growing demand from local clubs and communities as Canberra continues to grow.

    Taylor District Playing Fields

    Taylor District Playing Fields will be expanded with two new rectangular synthetic grass fields.

    The addition of modern, inclusive facilities will further enhance the space. These include:

    • LED lighting for extended use
    • a new sports pavilion
    • female-friendly changerooms
    • public toilets and community amenities.

    Stromlo District Playing Fields

    Stromlo District Playing Fields will support community sport in one of Canberra’s fastest-growing areas.

    Stage 1 will include a synthetic grass sportsground with two rectangular fields.

    There will also be:

    • a modified AFL oval
    • LED sportsground lighting
    • a sports pavilion.

    Essential civil works will also be carried out, including roads, parking, stormwater treatment and landscaping.

    Supporting local clubs

    The ACT Government will also double its investment in the Sports and Recreation Investment Scheme.

    This will support new and upgraded community sporting infrastructure around the city.

    High-quality facilities for a growing city

    The Budget investment will bring long-term benefits for local communities in these growing regions.

    It delivers on the ACT Government’s commitment to support active lifestyles and give more Canberrans the chance to get involved in sport.

    These projects come in addition to upgrades at existing sporting facilities across Canberra.

    Read more like this:


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    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: UPDATE: Arrests – Escape custody – Darwin CBD

    Source: Northern Territory Police and Fire Services

    The Northern Territory Police Force has arrested both youths who escaped custody in the Darwin CBD earlier this afternoon.

    About 6:20pm, both youths were arrested in the Darwin CBD by members from the Dog Operations Unit, Strike Force Trident, Territory Safety Division, Fugitive Task Force and general duties after being observed by a Dog Operations Unit member on patrol.

    Patrol Dog Wedge was deployed and the two youths were apprehended a short time later with some further assistance from the public.

    Police would like to thank members of the public involved.

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Charges – Secondary supply of alcohol – Katherine

    Source: Northern Territory Police and Fire Services

    The Northern Territory Police Force have charged a 58-year-old female and 80-year-old male with secondary supply of alcohol as part of a targeted operation in Katherine today.

    This morning, police executed search warrants at two separate residences within a block of units near the Katherine CBD. The operation was initiated following community concerns of ongoing supply of alcohol to individuals subject to Banned Drinking Orders (BDOs), particularly in the early hours of the morning.

    As a result of the search warrants police seized a significant quantity of alcohol and cash. They were both taken into custody and the 80-year-old male was later charged with:

    • Unauthorised sale of Liquor 
    • Possess ammunition without a license

    He was bailed to appear in Katherine Local Court on 23 July 2025.

    The 58-year-old female was charged with unauthorised sale of liquor and was bailed to appear in Katherine Local Court on 23 July 2025.

    Acting Superintendent Warren Scott said, “This type of behaviour will not be tolerated. Secondary supply is not a victimless crime, it is a serious offence carrying a maximum penalty of 3 years imprisonment. Secondary supply of alcohol undermines the BDO system, exploiting vulnerable community members.

    “It contributes directly to antisocial behaviour, fuels violence and places significant strain on emergency frontline and health services.

    “This operation forms part of a broader alcohol harm reduction strategy aimed at improving community safety and wellbeing across the Territory. Police will continue to actively target those who profit from the illegal secondary supply of alcohol, with a particular focus on those who sell to people prohibited from purchasing it.”

    Northern Territory Police Force are committed to working with partner agencies and the community to disrupt illegal alcohol supply and ensure that those responsible are held accountable.

    Anyone with information on the illicit secondary supply of alcohol in the community are urged to report it to police by either calling 131 444 or making an online police report at https://pfes.nt.gov.au/reportonline. You can anonymously report crime via Crime Stoppers by calling 1800 333 000 or via their online portal at https://crimestoppersnt.com.au/.

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Be part of the solution to plastic pollution

    Source: South Australia Police

    This Plastic Free July, take the pledge to reduce your plastic waste and make a positive impact – small changes really do make all the difference!

    Throughout the month, the City is hosting a range of free workshops where you can learn what happens to your waste, discover simple ways to reduce it and find out how to live more sustainably in your everyday life.

    Let’s work together for cleaner streets, healthier oceans and thriving, beautiful communities.

    Event dates and times

    Ditch the gladwrap! Fabric food cover sewing workshop

    The Waste Education team are hosting a pop-up workshop where you can stop by and learn to create your own fabric food covers.

    10am to 11am, Tuesday 1 July at Yanchep Central Shopping Centre. Register here.

    3.30pm to 4.30pm, Tuesday 1 July at Yanchep Central Shopping Centre. Register here.

    10.30am to 12.30pm, Saturday 5 July at Yanchep Library. Register here.

    Plastic Free It’s All About Play

    Join us for a fun filled program packed with multi-sensory toys, craft, dress ups and tactile experiences designed to keep your child engaged and entertained as they learn through play.

    9am to 11am, every Monday in July at Yanchep Library.

    No registration required, find out more via our website.

    Community tour of the Cleanaway Material Recovery Facility and CLAW Environmental

    Learn how your recycling is sorted and processed on this interactive tour of these two waste facilities.

    8.45am to 3pm, Thursday 17 July, departing Wanneroo Civic Centre.

    Register online via the City of Joondalup website.

    Earthside Eco Bums modern cloth nappy workshop

    Learn what cloth nappies are all about, how they work and what you’ll need to get started at this free workshop.

    11am to 12pm, Wednesday 30 July at Yanchep Library

    Register here.

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: AI model developed to unlock the potential of satellite imagery for land cover mapping A research team led by the University of Aberdeen has developed a pioneering AI model to improve accuracy and reduce computational time in land cover mapping, particularly for vegetation.

    Source: University of Aberdeen

    Dr Anshuman Bhardwaj (left), Baoling Gui (centre) and Dr Lydia Sam

    A research team led by the University of Aberdeen has developed a pioneering AI model to improve accuracy and reduce computational time in land cover mapping, particularly for vegetation.
    Detailed understanding of land cover, topographical features, and how land is used is central to tackling climate change impacts, food security, and sustainability.
    Traditional vegetation mapping methods analyse satellite images pixel by pixel, which can be inefficient and prone to error – especially in diverse or complex terrains.
    The new model developed by the research team, SAGRNet (Sampling and Attention-based Graph Convolutional Residual Network), uses advanced deep learning techniques to classify vegetation types with greater speed and accuracy. It can analyse entire landscape objects—such as fields and forests—providing better understanding of the shape, context, and relationships within the landscape, leading to more reliable and scalable mapping.
    The study is published in the ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, the official journal of International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing.
    SAGRNet was developed using satellite images covering the diverse landscape of north-east Scotland to sufficiently facilitate result validation.
    The study focuses on areas comprising woodlands, farmlands, and grasslands situated adjacent to other landcover classes such as built-up areas and water, located in and around Aberdeen, Dundee, and the Highlands.
    To further evaluate the generalisation capability of the proposed SAGRNet model, the team conducted additional experiments across five globally distributed urban fringe areas: Guangzhou (China), Durban (South Africa), Sydney (Australia), New York City (United States), and Porto Alegre (Brazil). These areas were carefully selected to represent diverse ecological backgrounds, vegetation structures, urbanisation intensities, and land cover complexities, providing a robust basis for assessing the transferability of the model.
    SAGRNet, which has been made openly available, could help decision-makers to quickly visualise and understand the impact of major events such as floods, forest fires, drought or heavy rainfall on large areas of land as well as the crops they produce.
    Project lead Dr Lydia Sam, Lecturer in Geosciences at the University of Aberdeen, said: “Accurate dimensional and topographic information on arable land is the foundation for further developing sustainable land management strategies. We have a multitude of earth observation satellites in orbit today providing images of our planet at very high resolutions. Models like SAGRNet provide a comprehensive vegetation mapping and characterisation framework, allowing users to unlock the true potential of their imagery data.
    “Our system of deep learning algorithms can immediately and accurately recognise the different types of land cover, vegetation or crops in an area.
    “This method addresses the inefficiencies of current systems by improving accuracy and reducing computational time, which is critical in responding to global challenges like climate change, deforestation, and food scarcity.”
    Dr Anshuman Bhardwaj, Senior Lecturer in Geosciences at the University and co-lead of the project, added: “Our model is quite transferrable and can even provide rapid and accurate answers to questions about how the landscape has changed.
    “This is vital for further understanding the impact of climate change from coastal erosions and landslips to shifts in plant or crop distribution.
    “It can also be used to monitor crop growth to facilitate more accurate harvest predictions or to look at how crops grown in a particular area have changed over time and to make better informed decisions of the sustainability of land use.
    “Our study lays a solid foundation for real-world applications in land monitoring, agriculture, and environmental management.”
    PhD student and research assistant on the project Baoling Gui added: “SAGRNet is suitable for integration into large-scale applications such as land resource surveys, ecological monitoring platforms, national land cover mapping programs, and environmental change analysis frameworks.”
    The project was funded by the BBSRC International Institutional Award scheme, in which the Aberdeen team worked in collaboration with international partners including Dr Diego Soto Gómez, University of Burgos (Spain), Dr Félix González Peñaloza, Evenor-Tech (Spain) and Professor Manfred F. Buchroithner, Technische Universität Dresden (Germany). Dr. David R. Green, Reader in Geosciences at the University of Aberdeen was also involved in the development of the published research article.
    The project was funded by the BBSRC International Institutional Award (BB/Y514172/1)

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Call for information – Escape custody – Darwin CBD

    Source: Northern Territory Police and Fire Services

    The Northern Territory Police Force are seeking public assistance to locate two male youths who escaped corrections custody in the Darwin CBD this afternoon.

    Around 4:10pm, police were made aware of two male youths that escaped from a corrections vehicle along Bennett Street while being conveyed in corrections custody around 4pm. One of the youths were last seen wearing a grey jumper and grey pants and the other was last seen with a green jacket.

    Police are actively searching for the absconders and are urging anyone with information on their whereabouts to contact police on 131 444, quoting reference number P25165835. You can anonymously report crime via Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000.

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: Albanese decides against pursuing Donald Trump to NATO

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Anthony Albanese, just back from the G7 and his cancelled meeting with Donald Trump, has abandoned the idea of going to next week’s NATO meeting in pursuit of face time with the elusive president.

    The word was that the prime minister would only go if he could be confident of a bilateral.

    The NATO thought bubble was always a long shot. Even if a meeting could have been arranged, there would have been risk of another no-show by Trump. Given the dramatic escalation and unpredictability of the Middle East crisis, Trump would be even more unreliable, quite apart from having his attention elsewhere.

    Albanese’s mistake was letting the NATO option be publicly known. It led to denigratory jokes about his “stalking” Trump. It also
    sounded as if the prime minister was insulting NATO, only willing to attend if he could secure the Trump one-on-one.

    So Albanese is back where he started, with all diplomatic efforts bent towards trying to secure a meeting, if possible reasonably soon. That might mean facing the scrum in the Oval Office, which Albanese has been anxious to avoid.

    Australia closes embassy in Tehran

    Meanwhile, the government has announced it has closed the Australian embassy in Tehran. The embassy’s 13 staff have left Iran.

    Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Friday, “This is not a decision taken lightly. It is a decision based on the deteriorating security environment in Iran”.

    “At this stage, our ability to provide consular services is extremely limited due to the situation on the ground. The airspace remains closed.”

    Asked how much more difficult it would be for Australians to leave Iran now there was no consular assistance in the country, Wong said: “We are really conscious it is extremely difficult. I wish it were not so. I wish that we had more capacity to assist but the difficult reality is the situation on the ground is extremely unstable.”

    Wong said Australia’s ambassador to Iran, Ian McConville, would “remain in the region to support the Australian government’s response to the crisis”. The Department of Foreign Affairs is sending consular staff to Azerbaijan, including its border crossing, to help Australians who are leaving Iran.

    Australian Defence Force personnel and aircraft are being sent to the Middle East as part of planning for when airspace is re-opened. Wong stressed “they are not there for combat”.

    Other countries to close their embassies include New Zealand and Switzerland. The United States does not have an embassy there.

    Wong urged Australians able to leave “to do so now, if it is safe. Those who are unable to, or do not wish to leave, are advised to shelter in place”.

    About 2000 Australian citizens, permanent residents and family members are registered as wanting to depart. There are about 1200 registered in Israel seeking to depart.

    Australians in Iran seeking consular assistance should call the Australian government’s 24-hour Consular Emergency Centre on +61 2 6261 3305 outside Australia and 1300 555 135 (in Australia).

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. View from The Hill: Albanese decides against pursuing Donald Trump to NATO – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-albanese-decides-against-pursuing-donald-trump-to-nato-258972

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: Albanese decides against pursuing Donald Trump to NATO

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Anthony Albanese, just back from the G7 and his cancelled meeting with Donald Trump, has abandoned the idea of going to next week’s NATO meeting in pursuit of face time with the elusive president.

    The word was that the prime minister would only go if he could be confident of a bilateral.

    The NATO thought bubble was always a long shot. Even if a meeting could have been arranged, there would have been risk of another no-show by Trump. Given the dramatic escalation and unpredictability of the Middle East crisis, Trump would be even more unreliable, quite apart from having his attention elsewhere.

    Albanese’s mistake was letting the NATO option be publicly known. It led to denigratory jokes about his “stalking” Trump. It also
    sounded as if the prime minister was insulting NATO, only willing to attend if he could secure the Trump one-on-one.

    So Albanese is back where he started, with all diplomatic efforts bent towards trying to secure a meeting, if possible reasonably soon. That might mean facing the scrum in the Oval Office, which Albanese has been anxious to avoid.

    Australia closes embassy in Tehran

    Meanwhile, the government has announced it has closed the Australian embassy in Tehran. The embassy’s 13 staff have left Iran.

    Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Friday, “This is not a decision taken lightly. It is a decision based on the deteriorating security environment in Iran”.

    “At this stage, our ability to provide consular services is extremely limited due to the situation on the ground. The airspace remains closed.”

    Asked how much more difficult it would be for Australians to leave Iran now there was no consular assistance in the country, Wong said: “We are really conscious it is extremely difficult. I wish it were not so. I wish that we had more capacity to assist but the difficult reality is the situation on the ground is extremely unstable.”

    Wong said Australia’s ambassador to Iran, Ian McConville, would “remain in the region to support the Australian government’s response to the crisis”. The Department of Foreign Affairs is sending consular staff to Azerbaijan, including its border crossing, to help Australians who are leaving Iran.

    Australian Defence Force personnel and aircraft are being sent to the Middle East as part of planning for when airspace is re-opened. Wong stressed “they are not there for combat”.

    Other countries to close their embassies include New Zealand and Switzerland. The United States does not have an embassy there.

    Wong urged Australians able to leave “to do so now, if it is safe. Those who are unable to, or do not wish to leave, are advised to shelter in place”.

    About 2000 Australian citizens, permanent residents and family members are registered as wanting to depart. There are about 1200 registered in Israel seeking to depart.

    Australians in Iran seeking consular assistance should call the Australian government’s 24-hour Consular Emergency Centre on +61 2 6261 3305 outside Australia and 1300 555 135 (in Australia).

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. View from The Hill: Albanese decides against pursuing Donald Trump to NATO – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-albanese-decides-against-pursuing-donald-trump-to-nato-258972

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Australia Suspends Operations at Embassy in Iran, Orders Staff to Leave Country

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: People’s Republic of China in Russian –

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    CANBERRA, June 20 (Xinhua) — The Australian government has suspended operations at its embassy in Iran and ordered its staff to leave the country amid an escalation of military conflict in the region.

    Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Friday that authorities had ordered the departure of all Australian embassy staff and their families from Iran and suspended the diplomatic mission in Tehran amid reports of deteriorating security conditions.

    She said Australia’s ambassador to Iran would remain in the region to support the government’s response to the crisis, while consular staff from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade would be deployed to Azerbaijan to assist Australians leaving Iran.

    “We urge Australians who can leave Iran to do so now if it is safe to do so. Those who cannot or do not want to leave are advised to shelter in place,” Ms Wong said.

    As of Friday, more than 2,000 Australian citizens had registered for assistance leaving Iran. –0–

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI: Prosafe SE: Operational update – May 2025

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    20 June 2025 – Fleet utilisation for May 2025 was 60 per cent.   

    Safe Zephyrus, Safe Eurus and Safe Notos operated at full capacity in May, achieving 99 to 100 per cent commercial uptime.  

    As announced, Safe Notos has been awarded a four-year contract with Petrobras in Brazil commencing September 2026 in continuation of its existing contract.  

    Safe Caledonia commenced operations at the Captain Field in the UK on 02 June 2025.   

    Safe Boreas is currently being transported to Singapore ahead of her upcoming contract in Australia. 

    Prosafe is a leading owner and operator of semi-submersible accommodation vessels. The company is listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange with ticker code PRS. For more information, please refer to https://www.prosafe.com  

    For further information, please contact:  

    Terje Askvig, CEO 

    Phone: +47 952 03 886 

    Reese McNeel, CFO 

    Phone: +47 415 08 186 

    This information is subject to the disclosure requirements pursuant to Section 5-12 the Norwegian Securities Trading Act. 

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia wants more foreign investment. That’s why a $29 billion bid for Santos puts the Treasurer in a tricky position

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shumi Akhtar, Associate Professor, University of Sydney

    Marlon Trottmann/Shutterstock

    The Australian origins of Santos have made an indelible mark on the company’s very name. The energy giant was first incorporated in 1954 under the acronym for “South Australia Northern Territory Oil Search”. It was publicly listed on the Adelaide Stock Exchange that same year.

    Fast forward to today, there are pressing questions about whether Santos could serve Australia’s national interest if it was largely in the hands of a foreign government.

    This week, it was announced a consortium led by the investment division of state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) had made an all-cash takeover bid of almost A$29 billion for Santos. This would value the company at $36.4 billion (including its debt).

    Santos’ board has said it will support the deal if there isn’t a better offer on the table. But it will first have to clear a raft of regulatory approvals – not only in Australia but also Papua New Guinea and the United States, where Santos has operations.

    The acquisition would be a monumental event in Australia’s corporate history. Key elements of this country’s critical energy infrastructure are at stake.

    But it’s set to put a difficult decision before the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and Treasurer Jim Chalmers. On the FIRB’s advice, Chalmers will have to balance Australia’s stated desire to attract foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.

    Who’s trying to buy – and why?

    Also in the ADNOC-led consortium of prospective buyers are US private equity firm Carlyle and a sovereign wealth fund of the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ). There are a few key reasons for their interest.

    First, ADNOC is keenly interested in expanding its footprint in gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Acquiring Santos would give it a stake in much of Australia’s gas production and established LNG export facilities. This includes major operations at Gladstone and Darwin.

    They would also gain a share in two important Papua New Guinean projects: PNG LNG and the yet-to-be-developed Papua LNG. These assets are particularly attractive because they offer direct access to the growing Asian LNG markets, where future demand is projected to be strong.

    Second, the acquisition would allow ADNOC to diversify its portfolio and gain control of export capacity from Australia and PNG to the Asia Pacific region. Santos’s Gladstone LNG plant, for example, has significant export capacity. Much of Santos’ LNG capacity is under medium and long-term contracts.

    And third, the timing of this bid is strategic. Santos has recently been in a period of high capital expenditure. A number of major projects are nearing completion. A successful takeover could free up funding for further development.

    ADNOC is the state-owned oil company of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.
    Marco Curaba/Shutterstock

    Defining national interest

    For regulators assessing the move, the potential takeover touches upon many national security, energy supply, and economic concerns for Australia.

    One of the primary concerns is the potential loss of control over critical energy infrastructure.

    Foreign ownership, especially by a state-linked investor such as ADNOC, raises questions about whose interests will ultimately shape strategic decisions about Australia’s essential gas flows, pricing, or even the integrity of operational technology systems.

    There’s also concern that a foreign owner could prioritise LNG exports over domestic supply. That could potentially exacerbate domestic gas shortages and price hikes. In the eastern states of Australia, such issues are already a concern.

    This is not the first time the Australian government has faced a tough decision on a foreign takeover bid in the oil and gas sector. In 2018, the Morrison government blocked a $13 billion Chinese bid for gas pipeline operator APA Group. It said a single foreign owner should not control Australia’s largest pipeline business.

    And the then-Treasurer Peter Costello blocked Royal Dutch/Shell’s $10 billion blockbuster offer for Woodside Petroleum in 2001, also in the national interest.

    The national interest checklist

    On the other hand, Australia generally welcomes foreign investment. It brings capital, creates jobs, and supports economic growth.

    If this deal proceeds to final stages, the decision could become a “test case” for Australia. Can we still attract global capital while also diligently safeguarding our sovereign interests?

    The consortium has made commitments to maintain Santos’s headquarters in South Australia, preserve jobs and invest in growth and decarbonisation initiatives. But this is only part of the picture.

    The FIRB and the Treasurer will need to consider how the deal would affect:

    • national security and critical infrastructure, including ownership and control risk, system integrity and supply chain vulnerability
    • the economy (such as on jobs and investment, tax revenues)
    • energy security and domestic gas supply
    • other Australian government policies, such as climate targets
    • the character of the investor
    • the complexity of regulation.

    The FIRB and the Treasurer must be acutely aware that few other nations have extended the same generosity to foreign investors as Australia has over recent decades.

    This generosity, while attracting capital, has also raised concerns about the nation’s control over its vital assets.

    The SA government has already signalled it won’t stand idly by if the deal is “not in the interests of South Australians”.

    All of this sits in the context of ongoing questions about how little tax is being paid by some multinationals while exploiting Australia’s natural resources.

    It is paramount the Australian government makes a forward-looking, informed decision. This should serve Australia’s best interests, rather than those of foreign entities.

    Associate Professor Akhtar has been invited to make several submissions to national Senate inquiries on tax, trade, and investment, and some of the material from those submissions has been drawn upon in writing this article.

    ref. Australia wants more foreign investment. That’s why a $29 billion bid for Santos puts the Treasurer in a tricky position – https://theconversation.com/australia-wants-more-foreign-investment-thats-why-a-29-billion-bid-for-santos-puts-the-treasurer-in-a-tricky-position-259153

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia wants more foreign investment. That’s why a $29 billion bid for Santos puts the Treasurer in a tricky position

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shumi Akhtar, Associate Professor, University of Sydney

    Marlon Trottmann/Shutterstock

    The Australian origins of Santos have made an indelible mark on the company’s very name. The energy giant was first incorporated in 1954 under the acronym for “South Australia Northern Territory Oil Search”. It was publicly listed on the Adelaide Stock Exchange that same year.

    Fast forward to today, there are pressing questions about whether Santos could serve Australia’s national interest if it was largely in the hands of a foreign government.

    This week, it was announced a consortium led by the investment division of state-owned Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) had made an all-cash takeover bid of almost A$29 billion for Santos. This would value the company at $36.4 billion (including its debt).

    Santos’ board has said it will support the deal if there isn’t a better offer on the table. But it will first have to clear a raft of regulatory approvals – not only in Australia but also Papua New Guinea and the United States, where Santos has operations.

    The acquisition would be a monumental event in Australia’s corporate history. Key elements of this country’s critical energy infrastructure are at stake.

    But it’s set to put a difficult decision before the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) and Treasurer Jim Chalmers. On the FIRB’s advice, Chalmers will have to balance Australia’s stated desire to attract foreign investment with the need to protect national interests.

    Who’s trying to buy – and why?

    Also in the ADNOC-led consortium of prospective buyers are US private equity firm Carlyle and a sovereign wealth fund of the United Arab Emirates, Abu Dhabi Development Holding Company (ADQ). There are a few key reasons for their interest.

    First, ADNOC is keenly interested in expanding its footprint in gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Acquiring Santos would give it a stake in much of Australia’s gas production and established LNG export facilities. This includes major operations at Gladstone and Darwin.

    They would also gain a share in two important Papua New Guinean projects: PNG LNG and the yet-to-be-developed Papua LNG. These assets are particularly attractive because they offer direct access to the growing Asian LNG markets, where future demand is projected to be strong.

    Second, the acquisition would allow ADNOC to diversify its portfolio and gain control of export capacity from Australia and PNG to the Asia Pacific region. Santos’s Gladstone LNG plant, for example, has significant export capacity. Much of Santos’ LNG capacity is under medium and long-term contracts.

    And third, the timing of this bid is strategic. Santos has recently been in a period of high capital expenditure. A number of major projects are nearing completion. A successful takeover could free up funding for further development.

    ADNOC is the state-owned oil company of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.
    Marco Curaba/Shutterstock

    Defining national interest

    For regulators assessing the move, the potential takeover touches upon many national security, energy supply, and economic concerns for Australia.

    One of the primary concerns is the potential loss of control over critical energy infrastructure.

    Foreign ownership, especially by a state-linked investor such as ADNOC, raises questions about whose interests will ultimately shape strategic decisions about Australia’s essential gas flows, pricing, or even the integrity of operational technology systems.

    There’s also concern that a foreign owner could prioritise LNG exports over domestic supply. That could potentially exacerbate domestic gas shortages and price hikes. In the eastern states of Australia, such issues are already a concern.

    This is not the first time the Australian government has faced a tough decision on a foreign takeover bid in the oil and gas sector. In 2018, the Morrison government blocked a $13 billion Chinese bid for gas pipeline operator APA Group. It said a single foreign owner should not control Australia’s largest pipeline business.

    And the then-Treasurer Peter Costello blocked Royal Dutch/Shell’s $10 billion blockbuster offer for Woodside Petroleum in 2001, also in the national interest.

    The national interest checklist

    On the other hand, Australia generally welcomes foreign investment. It brings capital, creates jobs, and supports economic growth.

    If this deal proceeds to final stages, the decision could become a “test case” for Australia. Can we still attract global capital while also diligently safeguarding our sovereign interests?

    The consortium has made commitments to maintain Santos’s headquarters in South Australia, preserve jobs and invest in growth and decarbonisation initiatives. But this is only part of the picture.

    The FIRB and the Treasurer will need to consider how the deal would affect:

    • national security and critical infrastructure, including ownership and control risk, system integrity and supply chain vulnerability
    • the economy (such as on jobs and investment, tax revenues)
    • energy security and domestic gas supply
    • other Australian government policies, such as climate targets
    • the character of the investor
    • the complexity of regulation.

    The FIRB and the Treasurer must be acutely aware that few other nations have extended the same generosity to foreign investors as Australia has over recent decades.

    This generosity, while attracting capital, has also raised concerns about the nation’s control over its vital assets.

    The SA government has already signalled it won’t stand idly by if the deal is “not in the interests of South Australians”.

    All of this sits in the context of ongoing questions about how little tax is being paid by some multinationals while exploiting Australia’s natural resources.

    It is paramount the Australian government makes a forward-looking, informed decision. This should serve Australia’s best interests, rather than those of foreign entities.

    Associate Professor Akhtar has been invited to make several submissions to national Senate inquiries on tax, trade, and investment, and some of the material from those submissions has been drawn upon in writing this article.

    ref. Australia wants more foreign investment. That’s why a $29 billion bid for Santos puts the Treasurer in a tricky position – https://theconversation.com/australia-wants-more-foreign-investment-thats-why-a-29-billion-bid-for-santos-puts-the-treasurer-in-a-tricky-position-259153

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘I was in a semi-breaking-down sort of place’: new study sheds light on the emotional toll for emergency volunteers

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natalie Roche, PhD Candidate, Centre for Ergonomics and Human Factors, La Trobe University

    Sergey Dolgikh/Getty Images

    In Australia, there are around 235,000 emergency service volunteers who help communities respond and recover after natural disasters and other traumatic events.

    These include volunteers with metropolitan and rural fire services and other rescue organisations.

    As natural disasters grow more frequent and severe with climate change we rely on these volunteers now more than ever. Yet volunteer numbers are shrinking.

    Our new research reveals an important but often hidden toll from natural disasters – the mental health of emergency service volunteers, who risk physical and emotional burnout.

    In our study, we interviewed 32 Victorian State Emergency Service (SES) and Country Fire Authority (CFA) volunteers. They told us they’re often not getting adequate support.

    Exposure to death

    Death is something commonly hidden behind clinical curtains. But for emergency service volunteers, exposure to dying and death is just part of the job. Death on jobs arrives unpredictably – on roads, in burned homes, after storms, floods and suicides.

    Given their work often takes place in the local community, victims are frequently known to the volunteer, which can further complicate grief. As one participant told us:

    You’re bound to come across someone you know, or someone you love at some point […] in a bad situation.

    Another recounted a colleague’s experience:

    It wasn’t until the next day that she found out that she actually knew the deceased person, but didn’t recognise them.

    Volunteers described often being first on scene to assist but not fully prepared for what they find. They recounted experiences including retrieving children who had drowned, watching people dying on the roadside, and finding burnt and maimed human remains.

    These encounters provoke intense emotional responses, from shock and sadness to feeling powerless and vulnerable. For many, feelings of helplessness and grief reverberate into everyday life. As one volunteer told us:

    I was in a semi-breaking-down sort of place […] having flashbacks […] struggling to hold emotions and do my day job.

    A lack of formal support

    We identified over-reliance on informal team support and individual resilience to cope with difficult emotions.

    Structured debriefs depended on leadership and team dynamics. Leaders with “tough it out” mindsets unintentionally perpetuated stigma around seeking help. One participant explained:

    People generally will just sit there and not talk about how they feel […] They’re feeling ashamed or embarrassed.

    The mindset of some teams seems to be that those who can’t manage the demands of the job should leave. One volunteer said:

    It’s mostly very hard and tough. But if you’re going to survive in the game, you gotta be hard.

    Support programs exist, but often focus on major disasters rather than the more everyday jobs. Referral depends on leaders flagging those seen as at-risk or individual volunteers asking for support. One participant explained:

    We do a debrief with peer support, but some people put on a brave face […] There needs to be more follow up.

    What’s more, support is sometimes difficult to access. One participant, a team leader, explained what happened when a volunteer in their team wasn’t coping:

    I called the mechanisms that [we] were told that we need to access. I’ve got somebody here that’s suicidal, nobody escalated it. I still hadn’t heard back six hours later.

    Importantly, our findings also highlighted that a one-size-fits-all approach doesn’t work. For some, peer support is a lifeline for processing experiences and building resilience, but not for others.

    Five women killed. And the peer support was all over us. You know, we got to the stage where it was ridiculous. We’ve had enough, we don’t want this. It re-traumatises people who want to move on.

    Support for emergency service volunteers isn’t one-size-fits-all.
    Ground Picture/Shutterstock

    Protecting those who protect us

    Talking to emergency service volunteers from only two organisations in one jurisdiction may limit the extent to which we can generalise our findings to other regions, countries or cultures.

    However, Victoria does have the second largest number of emergency service volunteers in Australia (behind New South Wales).

    Emergency service volunteers are extremely proud and passionate about serving their community and show up with care, calm and strength. But our findings show this comes at a personal cost, especially without the right supports.

    Volunteer exposure to death and dying must be recognised as a serious occupational health and safety issue, not just an emotional side effect of the job. We need proactive, not reactive reform if we want to recruit, retain and protect the people we count on in a crisis.

    Legislators and organisations should work collaboratively with emergency service volunteers to develop and implement responsive and consistent support services, culture and leadership.

    Without targeted, systemic and consistent support, we risk the future of our community-based emergency response. It’s time to protect those who protect us.


    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14 or Beyond Blue on 1300 22 4636.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. ‘I was in a semi-breaking-down sort of place’: new study sheds light on the emotional toll for emergency volunteers – https://theconversation.com/i-was-in-a-semi-breaking-down-sort-of-place-new-study-sheds-light-on-the-emotional-toll-for-emergency-volunteers-259145

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Britain’s support for AUKUS is unwavering – but its capacity to deliver is another matter

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tom Howe, PhD candidate in International Relations, Monash University

    A recently announced Pentagon review of the AUKUS pact has sparked a renewed bout of debate in Australia. Led by the “AUKUS-agnostic” US Undersecretary of Defense Elbridge Colby, the review raises serious questions over whether Australia will receive its US-made Virginia-class submarines on schedule from 2032.

    AUKUS supporters suggest the review is not overly concerning – they point out governments typically review major programs after taking office. As they note, the UK Labour government did the same when it commissioned Sir Stephen Lovegrove to review AUKUS in 2024. Moreover, the House of Commons Defence Select Committee is currently reviewing AUKUS.

    Crucially, however, not all reviews are created equal. Given the US assessment is, according to US officials, being conducted to ensure alignment with the imperatives of “America first”, there is a risk the US will not supply Australia with the Virgina-class submarines it feels it requires to deter China. The UK reviews, on the other hand, did not and do not carry such risks.

    The findings of the Lovegrove review remain confidential, but have been shared with Canberra and were incorporated into the UK government’s recent Strategic Defence Review (SDR). The Defence Select Committee is yet to report, but being public, its findings are likely to generate further debate in Australia.

    Why are the UK reviews different?

    The Defence Select Committee review, launched independently of the government, is an accountability mechanism that scrutinises progress but lacks the power to set policy.

    Meanwhile, the Lovegrove review was never intended to question AUKUS, as its terms of reference made clear. Instead, its focus was more on what progress has been made so far and any barriers that might inhibit future success.

    There was never any real chance the Lovegrove review would end or amend the UK’s participation in AUKUS, because it has widespread support across mainstream British politics. In foreign and security policy terms, cross-party consensus is the norm in the UK.

    However, in the case of AUKUS, two specific factors stand out.

    First, AUKUS provides a welcome means to share the burden on a project the UK was already pursuing. Even before AUKUS was announced, the UK had initiated plans for its next generation of nuclear-powered attack submarines, awarding initial design contracts to BAE Systems and Rolls-Royce worth £85 million (A$170 million).

    Considering this, AUKUS – and specifically Australia’s £2.4 billion (A$4.6 billion) investment into Rolls-Royce’s reactor production line – was a welcome boon for the cash-strapped British government.

    Second, AUKUS has been a crucial component of the UK’s post-Brexit re-emergence. Coming after a period in which Brexit negotiations consumed the British government, it provided important substance to “Global Britain” and its Indo-Pacific tilt.

    AUKUS’s cross-party appeal might initially seem strange, given its close association with Boris Johnson’s Brexiteer government. After all, with its “Britain Reconnected” plan, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s government has been keen to demonstrate how it differs from its Conservative predecessors. This most recent example comes with the SDR’s NATO-first approach, which some interpreted as a sharp break.

    However, this is a difference in style rather than substance. Rishi Sunak’s Conservative government had announced Britain had delivered the tilt and would focus on consolidating its position.

    In other words, it was making no new commitments. The SDR does not amend this position. It makes clear that “NATO first does not mean NATO only”. This means continuing support for agreements such as AUKUS, which, according to the review, are crucial to shaping the global security environment.

    Whether Britain has the capability to shape the global security environment is a question the SDR addresses, if implicitly, by acknowledging the “hollowing out” of the UK’s armed forces. Reconstituting Britain’s armed forces is consequently a key focus of Starmer’s government, which sees rearmament as a route to reindustrialisation.

    Militarisation as central to ‘rebirth’

    In this rebirth, the government is focusing heavily on the arms industry as a means to bring well-paid, high-skilled jobs to post-industrial parts of the country. There is debate about whether this is the best way to create jobs and growth, but the Starmer government has gone all-in on the strategy.

    Indeed, one of the most notable outcomes of the SDR is that the UK plans to invest substantial sums in its fleet of attack submarines, as it plans to go from seven Astute-class boats to 12 AUKUS-class ones.

    This ambition may provide some comfort to Australian observers as it indicates the scale of the UK’s commitment to AUKUS. Still, achieving the goal will require a significant increase in industrial capacity, as Britain will need to produce a new submarine every 18 months. The record of the UK government on major capital projects suggests this is a heroic ambition.

    For example, the last three Astute-class boats to be commissioned took between 130 and 132 months to build. The sixth and seventh boats of the nearly 25-year-old program are yet to enter service. Moreover, even the active Astute boats are beset by problems; in the first half of 2024, none of the five in-service boats completed an operational deployment due to maintenance issues.

    So, while in the context of the US review, Britain’s commitment is likely welcomed, any comfort must be tempered by the expectation that problems will also likely emanate from Britain.

    Tom Howe is a Young Professionals Member of the AIIA.

    ref. Britain’s support for AUKUS is unwavering – but its capacity to deliver is another matter – https://theconversation.com/britains-support-for-aukus-is-unwavering-but-its-capacity-to-deliver-is-another-matter-259266

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Australia: UPDATE: Charges – Property damage – Katherine

    Source: Northern Territory Police and Fire Services

    Strike Force Cerberus have arrested two male youths in relation to property damage in Katherine Wednesday evening.

    Yesterday, police identified one of the alleged offenders walking along Sandalwood Crescent and he was arrested without incident. A short time later, a second offender aged 15 was located and arrested in bushland near De Julia Court.

    The 15-year-old was charged with Property damage and Breach of bail, and the 14-year-old charged with Property damage and bailed to appear in court at a later date.

    Police would like to thank the public for their assistance and continue to urge those who witness a crime or anti-social behaviour to contact 131 444.

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: SAPOL to transform firearms services

    Source: New South Wales – News

    South Australia Police (SAPOL) is transforming firearms services with the introduction of the South Australia Firearms Register (SAFR).

    The new system will enhance efficiency, security and accessibility, improving the experience for firearm owners, businesses and law enforcement.

    Officer in Charge of Firearms Branch, Superintendent Lauren Leverington said the system is anticipated to be operational mid-2026.

    “As we develop the new digital system, SAPOL is asking firearm licensees to provide us with feedback on their current user experience,” Superintendent Leverington said.

    Licensees who have registered their email address with SAPOL’s Firearms Branch will receive an email invitation to complete a survey. For those who haven’t registered, a participation link is available on the SAFR page on SAPOL’s website or is available here.

    “We encourage all licensees to participate and share their insights to help us improve our services,” Superintendent Leverington said.

    Plans for SAFR include offering 24-hour online access for 15 digitised firearm services for dealers and licence holders. This will expediate application processing and reduce wait times. Users will also benefit from improved visibility and tracking of their applications.

    “SAPOL recognises the community’s frustration with the current application processing times,” Superintendent Leverington said.

    “To address this in the short term, additional staff have been employed to manage the workload more efficiently.”

    Key benefits of SAFR include:

    • Faster processing – digital applications will be reviewed and processed more quickly, reducing wait times for both applicants and administrators.
    • Secure online payments – offering a more convenient way to pay.
    • Secure and centralised storage of all digital submissions and enhanced reporting and workload tracking for Firearms Branch
    • Built in validation to reduce errors through the use of mandatory fields to prevent incomplete or incorrect submissions.
    • Environmentally friendly through minimised use of paper, supporting sustainability goals.

    The SAFR initiative also forms part of the broader National Firearms Register (NFR) program. SAPOL is partnering with the Commonwealth and other states and territories to deliver unified and efficient firearms information in near real time across Australia.

    “SAFR is shaping the future of firearms services in South Australia by delivering a new system. Together with our Commonwealth partners, SAPOL aims to elevate safety standards and improve service across the firearms community,” Superintendent Leverington added.

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Speech – Heads of Prosecuting Authorities of Commonwealth Countries Conference

    Source: Australian Ministers for Education

    South Australian café owner sentenced to 6 years’ imprisonment for GST fraud
    Ben.PetersJones

    South Australia

    Between March 2014 and January 2016, Shaun Both (the offender) was a sole trader of Metro Express Café at Mawson Lakes in South Australia. In that time, he lodged 9 quarterly Business Activity Statements (BAS) with the ATO. As a result of false statements in the BAS, in circumstances where the café had ceased trading, the offender dishonestly obtained $1,001,004 in Goods and Services Tax (GST). In January 2016, the offender used some of the last GST refund to purchase a $530,000 residential property outright. 

    Following an investigation by the ATO, the offender was charged with the following offences:

    • nine counts of obtain financial advantage by deception, contrary to section 134.2(1) of the Criminal Code (Counts 1-9); and
    • one count of knowingly dealing with money that is proceeds of crime ($100,000 or more), contrary to section 400.4(1) of the Criminal Code (Count 10).

    He first appeared in the Magistrates Court of South Australia in 2019 but then absconded to Western Australia after failing to appear in court in April 2020 when he was subject to home detention bail. In December 2023, the offender was arrested on the outstanding warrant in remote Western Australia and extradited back to South Australia where he was remanded in custody. The offender pleaded guilty to all counts at a committal hearing.

    Sentencing

    On 5 August 2024, the offender was sentenced by his Honour Judge Muscat in the District Court of South Australia to a total effective sentence of six years and six months’ imprisonment, with a non-parole period of three years and eight months.

    In sentencing the offender, his Honour Judge Muscat noted:

    • The BAS lodgments “represented a sustained course of conduct which escalated in terms of the amounts dishonestly obtained over an almost two-year period”.
    • Although the offender suffered from poor mental health, alcohol abuse and gambling habits and they were relevant to the background of his offending, they did not significantly reduce his moral capability or the need for personal and general deterrence.
    • The offender had a prior history of dishonesty offending. He had previously received the benefit of suspended sentences and court-ordered medical treatment for his alcohol and mental health issues.
    • It was clear that the offender “wanted to live a certain lifestyle and he certainly did that”. The offender gambled extensively, spent money at shopping centres and online, and “on things he did not really need other than to live the life he wanted”.
    • The loss to the Commonwealth was significant, with only about $350,000 recovered by the ATO by way of garnishee and bankruptcy proceedings, with no realistic prospect of recovering further amounts.

    His Honour gave the offence a 20 per cent discount for his guilty pleas. He noted that the case against the offender was “overwhelming” but he did save the time and expense of a trial.

    His Honour directed (and the CDPP conceded it was appropriate) that the sentence for Count 10 be served concurrently on the sentence imposed for Counts 1-9 as the offence concerned expenditure of the final BAS refund.

    Relevant links

    ATO media release published 6 August 2024 Café owner’s bold brew in $1 million GST fraud

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Police funeral to be held for Constable Keith Anthony Smith in Devonport

    Source: New South Wales Community and Justice

    Police funeral to be held for Constable Keith Anthony Smith in Devonport

    Friday, 20 June 2025 – 3:00 pm.

    Tasmania Police Commissioner Donna Adams has announced a police funeral for Constable Keith Anthony Smith will take place in Devonport on Friday, 27 June.
    The funeral will honour Constable Smith’s life and commemorate his 25 years of service with Tasmania Police.
    Commissioner Adams said Keith’s death was a traumatic and tragic event that has shocked Tasmania Police, and the broader community.
    “This week has been an incredibly difficult time for our Tasmania Police family, with the death of our respected and committed colleague, Constable Keith Smith,” she said.
    “Keith served with unwavering dedication and integrity, and his legacy will not be forgotten.”
    “For many Tasmania Police officers, Keith was more than a colleague – he was a friend, a mentor, and a true embodiment of what it means to serve.”
    The funeral will be held at 1pm on Friday in Devonport.
    At the request of Constable Smith’s family, the funeral is only open to family, friends, invited guests and police.
    Members of the public are asked to respect the family’s wishes for privacy and are asked not to attend the service itself.
    Immediately after the funeral, community members will be welcome to pay their respects by observing the guard of honour and funeral procession.
    Details of times and locations will be provided at a later date.
    Constable Smith was fatally shot on Monday, 16 June, while attending a rural property at North Motton in Tasmania’s north-west.
    A man has been charged with murder, attempted murder and aggravated assault over the devastating incident. He is due to appear in the Launceston Magistrates Court on Monday, 7 July.
    Members of the public are invited to leave a message of condolence or support for Constable Smith’s family and Tasmania Police colleagues on the Tasmania Police website. Public memorials have also been set up at Ulverstone and Launceston police stations.

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: A second of caution can safeguard your future

    Source: New places to play in Gungahlin

    Scammers take advantage of tax time by impersonating the ATO through fake emails and messages, hoping you’ll respond quickly without verifying if they are genuine. ATO email impersonation scams alone are up 300% from this time last year.

    Scammers know you’re busy, often distracted, and want you to respond quickly without verifying who is contacting you. They are trying to trick you into handing over personal information so they can steal your identity and commit fraud in your name.

    There are 3 simple steps you can take to protect yourself:

    1. Stop: Never share your myGov sign in details, and only share personal information such as your Tax File Number (TFN) or bank account details if you trust the person and they genuinely require them. If in doubt, don’t provide anything.
    2. Check: Take a sec to check. Ask yourself could it be fake? Is it really the ATO? If a link or QR code is directing you to provide information or to log into an online portal Don’t click on it!
    3. Protect: If something doesn’t feel right or you notice unusual activity, act quickly.

    Remember:

    • We may send you an SMS or email asking you to contact us but we’ll never send an unsolicited message with a link asking you to return personal information or log into our online services.
    • We do have a Facebook, Instagram, X and LinkedIn accounts, but we’ll never use these platforms to ask you to provide personal information, documentation or payments.

    Recovering from identity theft can be a stressful and complicated process. If something feels off, don’t engage with it – visit verify or report a scam on our website or phone us on 1800 008 540 for confirmation.

    To learn more visit how to stay scam safe and scam alerts.

    Looking for the latest news for SMSFs? – You can stay up to date by visiting our SMSF newsroom and subscribingExternal Link to our monthly SMSF newsletter.

    MIL OSI News

  • US top diplomat Rubio discussed Israel-Iran war with key partners

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met British foreign minister David Lammy on Thursday and held separate calls with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot and Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani to discuss the war between U.S. ally Israel and its regional rival Iran.

    KEY QUOTES

    The U.S. State Department said that Rubio and the foreign ministers agreed that “Iran can never develop or acquire a nuclear weapon.”

    Lammy said the same on X while adding that the situation in the Middle East “remained perilous” and a “window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution.”

    WHY IT’S IMPORTANT

    The air war between Iran and Israel – which began on June 13 when Israel attacked Iran – has raised alarms in a region that was already on edge since the start of Israel’s military assault on Gaza in October 2023.

    President Donald Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether the U.S. will get involved in the war, the White House said on Thursday. Trump has kept the world guessing on his plans, veering from proposing a swift diplomatic solution to suggesting Washington might join the fighting on Israel’s side.

    The White House said late on Thursday that Trump will take part in a national security meeting on Friday morning.

    CONTEXT

    Israel, which is the only country in the Middle East widely believed to have nuclear weapons, said it struck Iran to prevent Tehran from developing its own nuclear weapons. Iran, which says its nuclear program is peaceful, has retaliated with its own strikes on Israel.

    Iran is a party to Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty while Israel is not.

    Israeli air attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, the Human Rights Activists News Agency says. Israel says at least two dozen Israeli civilians have died in Iranian attacks.

    The foreign ministers of Britain, France, Germany and the European Union were due to meet in Geneva with Iran’s foreign minister on Friday to try to de-escalate the conflict.

    (Reuters)

  • Israel-Iran air war enters second week as Europe pushes diplomacy

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    Israel and Iran’s air war entered a second week on Friday and European officials sought to draw Tehran back to the negotiating table after President Donald Trump said any decision on potential U.S. involvement would be made within two weeks.

    Israel began attacking Iran last Friday, saying it aimed to prevent its longtime enemy from developing nuclear weapons. Iran retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel. It says its nuclear programme is peaceful.

    Israeli air attacks have killed 639 people in Iran, said the Human Rights Activists News Agency. Those killed include the military’s top echelon and nuclear scientists. Israel has said at least two dozen Israeli civilians have died in Iranian missile attacks. 

    Israel has targeted nuclear sites and missile capabilities, and sought to shatter the government of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, according to Western and regional officials.

    “Are we targeting the downfall of the regime? That may be a result, but it’s up to the Iranian people to rise for their freedom,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Thursday.

    Iran has said it is targeting military and defence-related sites in Israel, although it has also hit a hospital and other civilian sites.

    Israel accused Iran on Thursday of deliberately targeting civilians through the use of cluster munitions, which disperse small bombs over a wide area. Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    With neither country backing down, the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany along with the European Union foreign policy chief were due to meet in Geneva with Iran’s foreign minister to try to de-escalate the conflict on Friday.

    “Now is the time to put a stop to the grave scenes in the Middle East and prevent a regional escalation that would benefit no one,” said British Foreign Minister David Lammy ahead of their joint meeting with Abbas Araqchi, Iran’s foreign minister.

    U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also met Lammy on Thursday and held separate calls with his counterparts from Australia, France and Italy to discuss the conflict.

    The U.S. State Department said that Rubio and the foreign ministers agreed that “Iran can never develop or acquire a nuclear weapon.”

    Lammy said the same on X while adding that the situation in the Middle East “remained perilous” and a “window now exists within the next two weeks to achieve a diplomatic solution.”

    Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping both condemned Israel and agreed that de-escalation is needed, the Kremlin said on Thursday.

    The role of the United States remained uncertain. Lammy also met Trump’s special envoy to the region, Steve Witkoff, on Thursday in Washington, and said they had discussed a possible deal.

    Witkoff has spoken with Araqchi several times since last week, sources say.

    The White House said Trump will take part in a national security meeting on Friday morning. The president has alternated between threatening Tehran and urging it to resume nuclear talks that were suspended over the conflict.

    Trump has mused about striking Iran, possibly with a “bunker buster” bomb that could destroy nuclear sites built deep underground. The White House said Trump would decide in the next two weeks whether to get involved in the war.

    That may not be a firm deadline. Trump has commonly used “two weeks” as a time frame for making decisions and has allowed other economic and diplomatic deadlines to slide.

    With the Islamic Republic facing one of its greatest external threats since the 1979 revolution, any direct challenge to its 46-year-long rule would likely require some form of popular uprising.

    But activists involved in previous bouts of protest say they are unwilling to unleash mass unrest, even against a system they hate, with their nation under attack.

    “How are people supposed to pour into the streets? In such horrifying circumstances, people are solely focused on saving themselves, their families, their compatriots, and even their pets,” said Atena Daemi, a prominent activist who spent six years in prison before leaving Iran.

    (Reuters)

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 20, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 20, 2025.

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland CUHRIG/Getty This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room

    Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran
    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic. Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling

    Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University MAYA LAB/Shutterstock Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that

    A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal. The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the

    6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Miller, Lecturer in Education (Classroom Management), Southern Cross University Wander Women/ Getty Images Bullying is arguably one of the most serious issues facing Australia’s schools. About one in four students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied regularly. This can have serious and lasting

    Keith Rankin Analysis – America’s imperial ‘gifts’: ‘Crusader Democracy’ and ‘Christian Nationalism’
    Analysis by Keith Rankin. The United States has always fancied itself as the founder of modern democracy (aka ‘Democracy’). And, although that country has been self-absorbed for most of its history, it has always sensed that Democracy was its greatest export. ‘America’ became involved in Africa and the ‘Middle East’ very early in its history.

    Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University Australia’s Jaclyn Narracott competes in the women’s skeleton at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images As the end of the 2024-25 financial year nears, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), in partnership with the

    Bribe or community benefit? Sweeteners smoothing the way for renewables projects need to be done right
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University Louise Beaumont/Getty When a renewable energy developer announces a new project, there’s one big question mark – how will nearby communities react? Community pushback has scuttled many renewables projects. Sometimes, communities are angry landowners hosting

    Despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever. How can we make sense of this?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lovering, Lecturer in International Relations, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Recent controversies over New Zealand’s Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunch program have revolved around the apparent shortcomings of the food and its delivery. Stories of inedible meals, scalding packaging and

    Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania When the Western Australian state government handed down its state budget on Thursday, it showed a balance sheet solidly in the black with a A$2.5 billion surplus. But, as it has for seven years, the state has received an outsized

    Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Jeffery, Sessional Academic, Discipline of Film Studies, University of Sydney Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images When I was eight years old, on a Saturday night before surf lifesaving training, my dad put on the film Jaws and it changed my life forever. Unlike the

    New cases of meningococcal disease have been detected. What are the symptoms? And who can get vaccinated?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist; Clinical Researcher, University of Sydney Two Tasmanian women have been hospitalised with invasive meningococcal disease, bringing the number of cases nationally so far this year to 48. Health authorities are urging people to watch for symptoms and to check if

    Grattan on Friday: Sussan Ley has her first big outing with the national media next week, so here are some questions for her
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra On Wednesday, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley will front the National Press Club. So why is that a big deal? For one thing, her predecessor Peter Dutton never appeared there as opposition leader. For another, it’s a formidable forum for a

    A war on diplomacy itself – Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran
    ANALYSIS: By Joe Hendren Had Israel not launched its unprovoked attack on Iran on Friday night, in direct violation of the UN Charter, Iran would now be taking part in the sixth round of negotiations concerning the future of its nuclear programme, meeting with representatives from the United States in Muscat, the capital of Oman.

    Why New Zealand has paused funding to the Cook Islands over China deal
    BACKGROUNDER: By Christina Persico, RNZ Pacific bulletin editor/presenter;Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific; and Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist New Zealand has paused $18.2 million in development assistance funding to the Cook Islands after its government signed partnership agreements with China earlier this year. This move is causing consternation in the realm country, with one local

    Egyptian crackdown on Gaza blockade busters but Kiwi activists vow to ‘defeat genocide’
    SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Ōtautahi and Ava Mulla in Cairo Hope for freedom for Palestinians remains high among a group of trauma-struck New Zealanders in Cairo. In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo

    The 28 Days Later franchise redefined zombie films. But the undead have an old, rich and varied history
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher White, Historian, The University of Queensland The history of the dead – or, more precisely, the history of the living’s fascination with the dead – is an intriguing one. As a researcher of the supernatural, I’m often pulled aside at conferences or at the school gate,

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 20, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 20, 2025.

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland CUHRIG/Getty This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room

    Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran
    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic. Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling

    Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University MAYA LAB/Shutterstock Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that

    A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal. The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the

    6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Miller, Lecturer in Education (Classroom Management), Southern Cross University Wander Women/ Getty Images Bullying is arguably one of the most serious issues facing Australia’s schools. About one in four students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied regularly. This can have serious and lasting

    Keith Rankin Analysis – America’s imperial ‘gifts’: ‘Crusader Democracy’ and ‘Christian Nationalism’
    Analysis by Keith Rankin. The United States has always fancied itself as the founder of modern democracy (aka ‘Democracy’). And, although that country has been self-absorbed for most of its history, it has always sensed that Democracy was its greatest export. ‘America’ became involved in Africa and the ‘Middle East’ very early in its history.

    Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University Australia’s Jaclyn Narracott competes in the women’s skeleton at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images As the end of the 2024-25 financial year nears, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), in partnership with the

    Bribe or community benefit? Sweeteners smoothing the way for renewables projects need to be done right
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University Louise Beaumont/Getty When a renewable energy developer announces a new project, there’s one big question mark – how will nearby communities react? Community pushback has scuttled many renewables projects. Sometimes, communities are angry landowners hosting

    Despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever. How can we make sense of this?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lovering, Lecturer in International Relations, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Recent controversies over New Zealand’s Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunch program have revolved around the apparent shortcomings of the food and its delivery. Stories of inedible meals, scalding packaging and

    Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania When the Western Australian state government handed down its state budget on Thursday, it showed a balance sheet solidly in the black with a A$2.5 billion surplus. But, as it has for seven years, the state has received an outsized

    Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Jeffery, Sessional Academic, Discipline of Film Studies, University of Sydney Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images When I was eight years old, on a Saturday night before surf lifesaving training, my dad put on the film Jaws and it changed my life forever. Unlike the

    New cases of meningococcal disease have been detected. What are the symptoms? And who can get vaccinated?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist; Clinical Researcher, University of Sydney Two Tasmanian women have been hospitalised with invasive meningococcal disease, bringing the number of cases nationally so far this year to 48. Health authorities are urging people to watch for symptoms and to check if

    Grattan on Friday: Sussan Ley has her first big outing with the national media next week, so here are some questions for her
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra On Wednesday, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley will front the National Press Club. So why is that a big deal? For one thing, her predecessor Peter Dutton never appeared there as opposition leader. For another, it’s a formidable forum for a

    A war on diplomacy itself – Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran
    ANALYSIS: By Joe Hendren Had Israel not launched its unprovoked attack on Iran on Friday night, in direct violation of the UN Charter, Iran would now be taking part in the sixth round of negotiations concerning the future of its nuclear programme, meeting with representatives from the United States in Muscat, the capital of Oman.

    Why New Zealand has paused funding to the Cook Islands over China deal
    BACKGROUNDER: By Christina Persico, RNZ Pacific bulletin editor/presenter;Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific; and Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist New Zealand has paused $18.2 million in development assistance funding to the Cook Islands after its government signed partnership agreements with China earlier this year. This move is causing consternation in the realm country, with one local

    Egyptian crackdown on Gaza blockade busters but Kiwi activists vow to ‘defeat genocide’
    SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Ōtautahi and Ava Mulla in Cairo Hope for freedom for Palestinians remains high among a group of trauma-struck New Zealanders in Cairo. In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo

    The 28 Days Later franchise redefined zombie films. But the undead have an old, rich and varied history
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher White, Historian, The University of Queensland The history of the dead – or, more precisely, the history of the living’s fascination with the dead – is an intriguing one. As a researcher of the supernatural, I’m often pulled aside at conferences or at the school gate,

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
    SEL6

    URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 446
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    910 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

    * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
    Western into Central Minnesota
    Southeast North Dakota
    Northern into Northeast South Dakota

    * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 910 PM
    until 400 AM CDT.

    * Primary threats include…
    Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5
    inches in diameter possible
    Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

    SUMMARY…Isolated severe thunderstorms this evening will pose a
    risk for large to very large hail and severe gusts. Thunderstorms
    are forecast to increase in coverage late this evening into the
    overnight. The risks for hail and wind will likely continue as the
    expected thunderstorm activity gradually shifts from west to east
    across the Watch area.

    The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 100
    statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of
    Jamestown ND to 65 miles east southeast of Alexandria MN. For a
    complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
    update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
    favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
    Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
    weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
    warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
    tornadoes.

    &&

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 443…WW 444…WW 445…

    AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
    2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
    few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
    30025.

    …Smith

    Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
    SAW6
    WW 446 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 200210Z – 200900Z
    AXIS..100 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
    55SW JMS/JAMESTOWN ND/ – 65ESE AXN/ALEXANDRIA MN/
    ..AVIATION COORDS.. 85NM N/S /54ESE BIS – 51S BRD/
    HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
    MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.

    LAT…LON 47819950 46959416 44069416 44929950

    THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
    FOR WOU6.

    Watch 446 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

    Note:  Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes

    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

    Low (10%)

    Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

    Low ( 65 knots

    Low (20%)

    Hail

    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

    Mod (40%)

    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

    Mod (40%)

    Combined Severe Hail/Wind

    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

    High (70%)

    For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Works officially underway on new Serpentine Fire Station

    Source:

    Construction has officially commenced on a new fire station for Serpentine Fire Brigade, marked by a ceremonial sod turn today (Friday, 20 June).

    CFA Deputy Chief Officer (North West) Bill Johnstone AFSM joined Serpentine Fire Brigade Captain Neville Cockerell along with brigade members on-site to launch the project, which represents a significant milestone for the local brigade and wider community. 

    Neville, who has served with Serpentine Fire Brigade for more than 30 years, said the new station will be a major boost for both members and the town. 

    “This new station will give us the space and facilities we need to modernise and grow,” Neville said. 

    “We trained seven new members last year, and having a modern, fit-for-purpose base will help us attract even more people to join. 

    “It’ll also give us a place to come together socially, this will help us build an even stronger, more connected brigade.” 

    The new station will be located on Treloar Street, Serpentine, and will feature two appliance bays, a new brigade office, a multipurpose training room with an integrated kitchen and separate male and female turnout areas. 

    Neville said he hopes the facility can also serve as a staging area for any large-scale incidents in the region. 

    “We’re a practical brigade that’s always been here to serve our community, from fires and floods to road accidents,” Neville said.  

    “These facilities will help us continue doing that.” 

    Bill added that the facility will provide members with a modern, functional space to train and respond from. 

    “Projects such as this one demonstrate CFA’s commitment has to our regional and remote communities,” Bill said. 

    Serpentine Fire Brigade currently has 46 members (43 male and 3 female), including 22 operational volunteers and 24 non-operational members. 

    The brigade played a key role in the response to two major flooding events — in 2011 and again in 2022 — which significantly impacted the Loddon Valley. Members continue to respond to a wide range of incidents including grassfires, road crashes, and vehicle fires, particularly along the Loddon Valley Highway. 

    Submitted by CFA Media

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI: A Date with Light and Shadow Across Thousands of Miles: Beijing International Film Festival Shines in Sydney

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    BEIJING, CHINA, June 19, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — This year, the Beijing International Film Festival made its Australian debut, hosting a special promotional event on June 13 during the 72nd Sydney International Film Festival, marking a fresh encounter between Chinese cinematic culture and audiences in the Southern Hemisphere. Australia is a land that has not only nurtured a rich and unique geographical landscape but has also produced diverse masterpieces that have made their mark on the international film scene, such as “Memoir of a Snail,” “Hacksaw Ridge,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” and “Moulin Rouge.” As the country’s most representative film event, the Sydney International Film Festival brings together outstanding films and creators from around the world, allowing this harbor city to showcase its unique cultural charm through the interplay of light and shadow.

    Bian Jian, Deputy Secretary-General of the Beijing International Film Festival Organizing Committee, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Beijing Radio and Television Station, Wang Shuyu, Cultural Counselor of the Consulate General of China in Sydney, Liu Dong, Director of China Cultural Centre and China National Tourist Office in Sydney, and Wang Yi, Executive Deputy Director of the Integrated Media Center of Beijing Radio and Television Station, General Manager and Editor-in-Chief of Beijing New Media Group, and Editor-in-Chief of Btime attended the event. David White, Sound Designer AMPAS Jury member of the 14th Beijing International Film Festival, Long Fei, director of Best Feature Film at the 14th Beijing International Film Festival and Best Screenplay winner “G for Gap”, and Yue Hong, actress who won Best Supporting Actress at the 14th Beijing International Film Festival, were invited to attend. In addition, guests from the Sydney International Film Festival, representatives from Australian film organizations, and members of the media also attended the promotional event for exchanges, creating a warm atmosphere.

    Liu Dong, Director of China Cultural Centre and China National Tourist Office in Sydney, delivered the opening remarks, stating that the Beijing International Film Festival, as a cultural brand with international influence, has continuously promoted the exchange and display of outstanding films from around the world in recent years, and has also continuously promoted cooperation and dialogue between Chinese films and the global film industry, including Australia. “Tonight’s event is a microcosm of Sino-Australian cultural exchange and a new starting point for us to jointly promote film cooperation to a deeper level,” Director Liu Dong said.

    Bian Jian, Deputy Secretary-General of the Beijing International Film Festival Organizing Committee, Deputy Editor-in-Chief of Beijing Radio and Television Station, introduced the highlights of the 15th Beijing International Film Festival at the promotional event. He said that the Beijing International Film Festival is constantly expanding its international reach and becoming an important platform connecting filmmakers from around the world. This year’s “Tiantan Award” attracted 1,794 film submissions from 103 countries and regions, with foreign films accounting for nearly 90% of the total. The festival encompassed over 200 events, including markets, screenings, and forums. Weibo topics generated over 3.5 billion views, while Douyin videos garnered over 3.2 billion views. This online and offline synergy created a continuously evolving cultural phenomenon. The Beijing International Film Festival extends a sincere invitation to Australian filmmakers and audiences to follow, engage with, and visit Beijing, and to share in the passion and warmth of cinema.

    As recipients of multiple honors at the 14th Tiantan Award, Long Fei and Yue Hong, the core creators of “G for Gap”, shared their deep bond with the Beijing International Film Festival during the promotional event. Actress Yue Hong noted that Chinese cinema is increasingly presenting itself to global audiences in more diverse forms, and the Beijing International Film Festival serves as a crucial platform for fostering this two-way cultural exchange. Director Long Fei added that the Tiantan Award Panorama, launched by the festival, has enabled more people to experience the Chinese philosophy of life and emotional resonance through “G for Gap”.

    Tiantan Award Panorama is a key film initiative introduced by the Beijing International Film Festival as part of the “Never-ending Beijing Film Festival” campaign. It aims to bring high-quality Chinese films to local cinemas around the world by showcasing a selection of shortlisted and award-winning titles from the Tiantan Award. From June 14 to 19, Tiantan Award Panorama will present six Chinese-language films—”Lost in the Stars”, “Song of Spring”, “The Shadowless Tower”, “Beyond the Skies”, “Strangers When We Meet”, and “G for Gap”—in Sydney, bringing the warmth and humanity of Chinese stories to life on the silver screen.

    At the promotional event, we were also joined by an old friend of the Beijing International Film Festival, David White, Jury Member of the 14th Beijing International Film Festival. Reflecting on his time as a juror, he shared that the festival had left a lasting impression on him. He also expressed that there is tremendous potential for collaboration between Australia and China in the film industry. At a time when the global film market is facing challenges and box office performance is generally sluggish, he emphasized the importance of the two countries working more closely together. Ultimately, however, content is king—telling a good story is fundamental. A compelling story has its own vitality and appeal, and will eventually win over audiences and achieve strong box office results.

    The Beijing International Film Festival has always been committed to promoting cultural exchange and cooperation between Chinese and international cinema, and looks forward to continuing to work with filmmakers around the world to tell more moving stories and create a richer cultural landscape.

    Media Contact

    Company: Beijing International Film Festival

    Contact: Yulan Guo, Project Manager

    Telephone: 18600216712

    Email: invitation@bjiff.com

    Website: www.bjiff.com

    Address: 98, Jianguo Rd, Chaoyang, Beijing, 100022, CN

    SOURCE: Beijing International Film Festival

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic.

    While considering a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran’s supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him “an easy target”. He has demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.

    Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program.

    So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid?

    Has Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ fully collapsed?

    Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure.

    This so-called “axis of resistance” includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran’s influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria before it was toppled last year.

    These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement.

    However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network.

    Hezbollah — once Iran’s most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

    In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad’s regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region.

    That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen.

    The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen.

    Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region’s only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region.

    The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF’s more hardline factions, promised to do so:

    If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation.

    Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

    Will Iran’s regional and global allies step in?

    Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal.

    For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    In a sign of Pakistan’s importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country’s army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour.

    Pakistan’s leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran’s president “unwavering solidarity” in the “face of Israel’s unprovoked aggression”. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will “think many times before taking on Pakistan”.

    These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention.

    Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war.

    In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations.

    These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel’s actions and urged de-escalation.

    It’s unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US.

    Iran’s key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel’s strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council.

    However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US.

    Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran’s stability. This is due to Iran’s long-standing “Look East” policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy.

    However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly.

    Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia’s closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn’t want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration.

    China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war? – https://theconversation.com/who-are-irans-allies-and-would-any-help-if-the-us-joins-israel-in-its-war-259265

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic.

    While considering a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran’s supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him “an easy target”. He has demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.

    Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program.

    So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid?

    Has Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ fully collapsed?

    Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure.

    This so-called “axis of resistance” includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran’s influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria before it was toppled last year.

    These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement.

    However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network.

    Hezbollah — once Iran’s most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

    In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad’s regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region.

    That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen.

    The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen.

    Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region’s only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region.

    The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF’s more hardline factions, promised to do so:

    If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation.

    Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

    Will Iran’s regional and global allies step in?

    Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal.

    For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    In a sign of Pakistan’s importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country’s army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour.

    Pakistan’s leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran’s president “unwavering solidarity” in the “face of Israel’s unprovoked aggression”. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will “think many times before taking on Pakistan”.

    These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention.

    Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war.

    In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations.

    These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel’s actions and urged de-escalation.

    It’s unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US.

    Iran’s key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel’s strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council.

    However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US.

    Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran’s stability. This is due to Iran’s long-standing “Look East” policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy.

    However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly.

    Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia’s closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn’t want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration.

    China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war? – https://theconversation.com/who-are-irans-allies-and-would-any-help-if-the-us-joins-israel-in-its-war-259265

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hessom Razavi, Clinical Associate Professor of Ophthalmology, The University of Western Australia

    We are at a dinner party in suburban Perth, a home away from home for our diaspora. As guests arrive, a Persian ballad plays in the background: Morq-e Sahar (Dawn Bird), a freedom song, a century-old protest against dictatorships and tyranny in Iran. This version was sung by the late Mohammad-Reza Shajarian, Iran’s most decorated maestro.

    Dawn bird, lament!
    Make my brand burn even more.
    With the sparks from your sigh, break
    And turn this cage upside down.

    Shajarian’s virtuoso voice frames an old question. One I’ve heard, it seems, at every Iranian gathering since my childhood. It hangs in the air like a cloud, unanswered, as guests greet each other with customary bowing and rooboosi (cheek kissing). We settle around a table laden with âjil (trail mix), fruit and wine, the smell of saffron rice and ghorme sabzi (herb stew) all around.

    For me, the scene is both familial and familiar. As is the question, which circles back around. “When will this regime change?” someone asks. The “regime” is Nezâm-e Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi-ye Irân, or the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    A missing voice

    Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion against Iran last week, there has been a voice sometimes missing in the mainstream coverage – that of the Iranian people themselves.

    “Israel is not our enemy, the regime is our enemy,” chant many Iranians in Tehran and in the diaspora, a common sentiment in our community. They cite the regime that they have endured for 46 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution: a government most of them oppose and reject, with the vast majority of Iranians preferring democratic, if not secular, reform.

    I hear some Iranians, on social media and in conversation with people who live there, commending Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for assassinating Iran’s top military brass. These are the leaders of the Sepah, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the most powerful branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. Together with the mullahs – Iran’s Shia Muslim clerical class – they form the backbone of Iran’s government and economy.

    So far, Israel has assassinated Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as Mohammad Kazemi, its intelligence chief, plus senior nuclear scientists and dozens of other officers. Israel has also indicated an interest in killing Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

    Damet garm, aghayeh Netanyahu,” some Iranians are saying, literally “may your breath be warm”, or “good job, Netanyahu”. Amid the terror and confusion – not to mention the civilian deaths, so far, of over 200 Iranians – there is a rare and distinct sense of hope.

    State of corruption

    In view of Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza, this support for Israel may come as a surprise to many Australians, and Western liberals in general. Certainly, reconciling Israel’s role in Gaza versus Iran is jarring.

    But for now, I hear some Iranians saying “maybe our regime can finally be toppled”. Maybe Iran can reclaim its place in the international community, as the proud and prosperous nation it should be? As this crisis escalates, as buildings collapse and distressed Tehranis, including my family, flee the capital for the safety of the countryside, there is a heady sense of possibility.

    Wing-tied nightingale come out of the corner of your cage, and
    Sing the song of freedom for human kind.
    With your fiery breath ignite,
    The breath of this peopled land …

    I understand the allure of this hope; to an extent, I feel it myself. My family lives in Australia, not Iran, precisely because of the Iranian regime’s tyranny. We fled Iran in 1983 due to political persecution, after most of the adults in our extended family were arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by the government.

    Two of my imprisoned uncles and one of my aunties were executed. Another uncle was beaten to death in custody. My grandfather, a noble old man, was imprisoned and tortured. We were far from unique; during the 1980s, the government imprisoned tens of thousands of its own people, executing many thousands of them.

    Little has changed since then. The Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards have shown a pervasive disregard for human rights. They execute more of their own people than any country except China. They are a world leader in the use of torture; they deny freedoms of expression and press, association and assembly; they discriminate against women, girls, religious minorities, LGBTI people, and refugees. Tightly controlled elections ensure the success of desired candidates.

    Freedom House, a nonprofit organisation based in the US, gives Iran a score of 11 out of 100 for its provision of political rights and civil liberties. For many Iranians, it felt overdue when, in 2019, the US listed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation, a decision followed by other countries, including Canada and Sweden. In 2023, the European parliament overwhelmingly voted for a resolution to do the same, with calls to expedite this motion in early 2025.

    In parallel to their human rights abuses, the Revolutionary Guard has hobbled the Iranian economy. Their corruption, financial incompetence and operation of black markets have compounded the effects of international sanctions. Consequently, the Iranian rial hit a historic low this year. It is now worth around one twentieth of its value in 2015.

    People’s life savings have dwindled in value, rendering older Iranians financially vulnerable. Inflation was 38.7% in May of this year, down from highs of over 40%. My family in Iran experience this as grocery and commodity prices that may rise in a single day, higher in the afternoon than in the morning. Some cities have experienced water cuts and power outages.

    While it hasn’t yet qualified as a failed state, Iran has been failing.

    All of this has occurred despite the country being richly endowed with the second- and third-highest natural gas and oil reserves in the world, respectively. Iran has a GDP of over $US404 billion – 36th in the world. Its youth are highly educated and literate, with more women enrolled in universities than men.

    Rather than accelerating the nation’s domestic development, however, the Iranian government has by its own admission spent tens of billions of dollars to expand its empire by funding terrorist proxies: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the recently deposed Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    The Iranian people have suffered financially, but the Revolutionary Guards have not. They are estimated to control at least 10%, and up to 50%, of the country’s total economy, including up to an estimated 50% share of Iran’s US$50 billion per year oil profits. They have achieved this by commandeering an industrial empire, made up of hundreds of commercial companies, trusts, subsidiaries and nominally charitable foundations.

    A further US$2 billion or more per year comes from the government’s military budget, with periodic boosts during crises. Add to this the alleged shadowy operation of black markets, extortion, and the smuggling of alcohol, narcotics and weapons, accounting for an estimated US$12 billion per year in revenue.

    Contemplating this corruption, I am reminded of an anecdote from a personal associate who worked for a firm affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. They shared stories of officers, the nation’s purported “guardians of Islam”, hosting parties where alcohol, firearms and sex workers were readily available.

    My associate recounted several instances of fraud and theft, one of them monumental in scale. In this “tea smuggling scandal”, the Revolutionary Guard defrauded billions of dollars from a government fund by illicitly exchanging some funds on the open market, falsely labelling cheap tea to on-sell as superior quality tea, and falsely labelling domestically produced machinery as “Made in Germany”.

    “They’re untouchable, and they know it”, my associate said. Another Iranian community member described them to me as “Iran’s super-mafia”.

    Speaking to family in Iran, they say many of the middle tier Revolutionary Guards live in their own shahrak-ha (towns) with dedicated markets, schools and resorts. Many of the Guards’ elite, meanwhile, live in mansions in the exclusive parts of north Tehran, with children who pursue conspicuously American “lifestyles of the rich and famous”. For an organisation that leads the chants of “marg bar America!” (death to America), one wonders if they see the irony in this.

    Turn our dark night to dawn

    I find myself sickened by the events of this war, and the harm it is causing. Struck with anxiety, some of our family members in Tehran haven’t slept for days. “The Israeli bombardments are non-stop, and so loud,” one family member told me.

    This week our extended family has struggled frantically to leave Tehran. Petrol is hard to come by and, in a mass exodus, the bumper-to-bumper traffic stands still for hours. I know some of the neighbourhoods being bombed; we lived in one of them in my childhood.

    “For every military commander that’s assassinated, a whole building might collapse, and with a dozen civilians trapped or killed,” another person told me, intimating that the civilian toll is higher than official counts.

    I am also worried about the raised hopes of Iranians. I have seen this before, when a spark – sometimes an inspirational act of courage from an ordinary citizen – leads to public surges in solidarity. At these moments during my childhood, my parents would tell me that the regime’s time was limited, it’s downfall inevitable. Iranians would see better days and people power would prevail.

    Truth and goodness rise like cream, my Dad would say, as if echoing Dr Martin Luther King’s arc of the moral universe bending towards justice.

    A beautiful sentiment no doubt, but one that has become difficult to believe over time. It often appears that the universe’s arc bends towards power, not justice. Fairness seems the exception, hardly the rule. At the time, Dad’s reassurances were protective, even noble. But as the 1979 revolution and its aftermath have shown, might beats right most days of the week.

    The cruelty of the cruel and the tyranny of the hunter
    Have blown away my nest.
    O God, O Heavens, O Nature,
    Turn our dark night to dawn.

    As I explain to Australian friends: how can a people surpass a government that has (1) the military on its side, (2) a stranglehold on oil revenue, and (3) a purported mandate from God?

    Guns, money and a holy book – a hard trifecta to crack, and powerful enough to attract a sufficient minority of cronies, bottom feeders and sycophants.

    What’s the size of this ruling minority? It’s difficult to be sure, but a 2023 survey of 158,000 respondents within Iran found that only 15% supported the Islamic Republic. Small, but sufficient to produce crowds burning American and Israeli flags. I’ve always marvelled at the regime’s ability to manufacture these images; I’m told by associates that they now use AI to produce some of these.

    Women Life Freedom

    As current events unfold, I find myself deeply sceptical of all the political actors, whether Iranian, Israeli, American, Arab or Russian. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, none of them have shown any serious interest in supporting democratic reform in Iran. “They’ve all profited from this government,” a senior community member told me. “Why would that change now?”

    For the sake of sanity, I find myself searching for credible sources of hope. The only one I settle on is faith in the Iranian people themselves. This the culture that has surrounded me since childhood, the qualities I’ve seen first hand in my countrywomen and men, whether young or old, home or abroad, Muslim, Bahai or secular: a resilience, a resourcefulness, a propensity for joy, a confidence and pride in culture, and an ability to prevail, over and again.

    It’s a new spring, roses are in bloom…
    …O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.

    These qualities are periodically staged for the world to see. Iranian people have not taken their oppression lying down, rising in (mainly) peaceful protests. There have been some 10 mass protests since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The largest of these was the Green Movement in 2009, when it was estimated that over a million citizens marched in Tehran alone. As recently as May 2025, strikes took place in over 150 cities, involving hundreds of thousands of workers.

    For the most part, these demonstrations have been met with severe repression by state authorities. One episode, from September 2022, deserves special mention. The world watched in horror as the regime cracked down on young women in Iran. This was their response to the Zan Zendegi Azadi (Woman Life Freedom) movement, where mass protests were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Jina Amini.

    Amini was a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who had been detained by the government’s “Morality Police” for wearing an improper hijab. Three days into her detention she died under suspicious circumstances. A leaked CT scan showed a skull fracture and brain haemorrhage. This corroborated eyewitness accounts that Amini had been severely beaten by police.

    Intentionally or not, a dress code infringement had been punished by death. Even for Iranians long accustomed to state violence, this was too much. Mass protests erupted in more than 100 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

    The protests were led by women, many of them defiantly removing their headscarves. True to its nature, the regime responded violently. In the months that followed, over 20,000 protesters were imprisoned, many later testifying to having been tortured through electric shock, flogging, waterboarding and rape.

    Human Rights Watch estimates that over 500 civilians – including 68 children and adolescents – were killed by security forces, which included the paramilitary Basijis, Revolutionary Guard Corps, police and prison guards.

    Things would get darker. That December the regime was accused of deliberately poisoning over 1,200 students at Kharazmi and Ark universities on the eve of a planned protest. Soon thereafter, there were allegations of toxic gas attacks against thousands of schoolgirls, in apparent retaliation for removing their hijabs. By 2024, the UN had accused Iran of a coordinated campaign of crimes against humanity, a claim rejected by the regime.

    As an eye surgeon, I was distressed to read a letter signed by over 100 Iranian ophthalmologists detailing eye injuries among protesters. The letter alleged that security forces had deliberately targeted people’s eyes with teargas canisters, rubber bullets and shotgun fire, resulting in traumatic injuries and irreversible blindness among protesters.

    Dew drops are falling from my cloudy eyes
    This cage, like my heart, is narrow and dark.
    O fiery sigh set alight this cage
    O fate, do not pick the flower of my life.

    There were separate reports of women’s faces and genitals being targeted by shotgun fire. The regime appeared to have interfered with medical services: protestors transported to police stations in ambulances were arrested after surgery or denied treatment. Doctors were reportedly coerced to supply false death certificates to disguise the true cause of protestors’ deaths. The British Medical Journal documented healthcare professionals being arrested, intimidated, kidnapped or killed in retaliation for treating protesters.

    If we didn’t know it already, Zan Zendegi Azadi reminded us of the risks, if not futility, of advocating for change in Iran.

    When mass civil movements like this, performed ten times over, have not worked, what alternatives are the people left with? Brutalised and impoverished by their own government, should we be surprised when a traditionally Islamic people welcome a Jewish state’s decapitation of their political leaders? Is it not tempting, even if lazy, to invoke the historical comparison of Cyrus the Great, Persian King of the Achaemenid Empire, who freed the Jewish people from Babylonian captivity?

    For the people of Iran and Israel – at the risk of naivety and romanticism – are we approaching an age of karma?

    O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.
    O heart-lost bird, shorten, shorten, shorten,
    The tale of separation.

    An uncertain scenario

    Regarding Operation Rising Lion, it is safe to say that Iranians, like any healthy community, hold a diversity of views.

    At one end of the spectrum, those who unconditionally condemn Israel’s attack should consider that the Iranian government has stockpiled over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. While not enough to build a nuclear warhead, this is far more enriched uranium than is needed for peaceful purposes.

    The Iranian government has also vowed to “wipe Israel off the map” for decades. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians. In other words, Iran has said to Israel “we want to annihilate you, we’ll celebrate your deaths, and we could do it with nuclear weapons if we wished to”.

    Following Iran’s recent breach of its nonproliferation obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel says it has acted lawfully in attacking Iran for self-defense – a claim disputed by some international law experts. Even if one does not agree with Israel’s action, it is evident that they’ve long been baited by Iran.

    On the other side of the coin, Iranians who salute Israel and the US as their saviours should take caution. The US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declared as recently as March 2025 that there was no evidence that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, a finding corroborated by over a dozen other US intelligence elements including the CIA, the National Security Agency, and the Insitute for Defense Analyses.

    One cannot ignore the disturbing echoes of the 2003 war on Iraq, where the absence of evidence for weapons of mass destruction was intentionally misrepresented by the US and UK governments. The consequences for Iraq have been disastrous.

    As for Netanyahu and his administration, they have shown a ruthless pursuit of narrow self-interest in Gaza. The deaths and injuries inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on more than 50,000 Palestinian children appear to have done nothing to quell their ambitions.

    With regards to Netanyahu himself, he is facing corruption charges that could result in his domestic imprisonment and he has more recently been the subject of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, including starvation and murder.

    What can Iranians learn from this? The evidence suggests this could be a war of passion and opportunism for Israel, rather than one of legitimate self-defence. In any case, they are not waging it for the benefit of Iranians.

    Israel has a tendency to set ambitious military goals that it can’t achieve. While it promises Operation Rising Lion will soon end, its track record suggests otherwise.

    A protracted conflict would see Iran’s civilian toll rise much higher. Power outages and fuel shortages have already begun; what happens once water, medical and food scarcity set in? Since Iran doesn’t allow many international aid agencies onto its soil, who will come to the rescue of Iranians as things escalate?

    Truth’s life has come to an end
    Faith and fidelity have been replaced by the shield of war.
    Lover’s lament and beloved’s coyness,
    Are but lies and have no power.

    Even if Israel succeeds in capturing or killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, what happens next? With the Revolutionary Guard’s roots in place, there is no guarantee, and in fact a low likelihood, of true democratic reform. In recent times, foreign interference in the region has not gone well. Look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria: all evidence of catastrophic worsening after the removal of autocrats.

    This is a complex and uncertain scenario with little room for moral grandstanding. Disabling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities could be a net win, but the manner in which it is being done sets a dangerous precedent. For the Iranian people, Netanyahu’s ambitions could ultimately prove both heroic and villainous.

    The cup of the rich is full of pure wine,
    Our cup is filled with our heart’s blood.
    O anxious heart, cry out aloud
    And avoid those who have powerful hands.

    As I watch coverage of the war, I find myself drifting back to Shajarian’s voice and to Morq-e Sahar, probably for distraction and comfort. What is real is my faith in my fellow Iranians. Many examples comes to mind. One, during a trip to Iran, was when I stayed with family at a roadhouse. That evening, we heard music emanating from the courtyard and followed some steps into an dark basement beneath the accommodation.

    There we found a large gathering of young Iranians, two dozen or more men and women risking the law by hanging out together to sing. We joined them as strangers, seated on the floor and holding hands at times. In the dim light, the group sang and sang, a couple of them playing instruments.

    I can’t say I knew the songs or comprehended all the lyrics; I didn’t need to, to understand their meaning. You may force our people underground, you may cage them, bombard and even kill them. But you will never extinguish their eternal Persian spirit.

    O rosy-cheeked cup-bearer, give the fiery water,
    Play a joyful tune, O charming friend.
    O sad nightingale lament from your cage.
    Because of your grief my heart is
    Full of sparks, sparks, sparks.

    Hessom Razavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime? – https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-my-heart-is-full-of-sparks-as-war-escalates-can-i-hope-for-irans-liberation-from-a-tyrannical-regime-259275

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hessom Razavi, Clinical Associate Professor of Ophthalmology, The University of Western Australia

    We are at a dinner party in suburban Perth, a home away from home for our diaspora. As guests arrive, a Persian ballad plays in the background: Morq-e Sahar (Dawn Bird), a freedom song, a century-old protest against dictatorships and tyranny in Iran. This version was sung by the late Mohammad-Reza Shajarian, Iran’s most decorated maestro.

    Dawn bird, lament!
    Make my brand burn even more.
    With the sparks from your sigh, break
    And turn this cage upside down.

    Shajarian’s virtuoso voice frames an old question. One I’ve heard, it seems, at every Iranian gathering since my childhood. It hangs in the air like a cloud, unanswered, as guests greet each other with customary bowing and rooboosi (cheek kissing). We settle around a table laden with âjil (trail mix), fruit and wine, the smell of saffron rice and ghorme sabzi (herb stew) all around.

    For me, the scene is both familial and familiar. As is the question, which circles back around. “When will this regime change?” someone asks. The “regime” is Nezâm-e Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi-ye Irân, or the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    A missing voice

    Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion against Iran last week, there has been a voice sometimes missing in the mainstream coverage – that of the Iranian people themselves.

    “Israel is not our enemy, the regime is our enemy,” chant many Iranians in Tehran and in the diaspora, a common sentiment in our community. They cite the regime that they have endured for 46 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution: a government most of them oppose and reject, with the vast majority of Iranians preferring democratic, if not secular, reform.

    I hear some Iranians, on social media and in conversation with people who live there, commending Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for assassinating Iran’s top military brass. These are the leaders of the Sepah, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the most powerful branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. Together with the mullahs – Iran’s Shia Muslim clerical class – they form the backbone of Iran’s government and economy.

    So far, Israel has assassinated Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as Mohammad Kazemi, its intelligence chief, plus senior nuclear scientists and dozens of other officers. Israel has also indicated an interest in killing Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

    Damet garm, aghayeh Netanyahu,” some Iranians are saying, literally “may your breath be warm”, or “good job, Netanyahu”. Amid the terror and confusion – not to mention the civilian deaths, so far, of over 200 Iranians – there is a rare and distinct sense of hope.

    State of corruption

    In view of Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza, this support for Israel may come as a surprise to many Australians, and Western liberals in general. Certainly, reconciling Israel’s role in Gaza versus Iran is jarring.

    But for now, I hear some Iranians saying “maybe our regime can finally be toppled”. Maybe Iran can reclaim its place in the international community, as the proud and prosperous nation it should be? As this crisis escalates, as buildings collapse and distressed Tehranis, including my family, flee the capital for the safety of the countryside, there is a heady sense of possibility.

    Wing-tied nightingale come out of the corner of your cage, and
    Sing the song of freedom for human kind.
    With your fiery breath ignite,
    The breath of this peopled land …

    I understand the allure of this hope; to an extent, I feel it myself. My family lives in Australia, not Iran, precisely because of the Iranian regime’s tyranny. We fled Iran in 1983 due to political persecution, after most of the adults in our extended family were arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by the government.

    Two of my imprisoned uncles and one of my aunties were executed. Another uncle was beaten to death in custody. My grandfather, a noble old man, was imprisoned and tortured. We were far from unique; during the 1980s, the government imprisoned tens of thousands of its own people, executing many thousands of them.

    Little has changed since then. The Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards have shown a pervasive disregard for human rights. They execute more of their own people than any country except China. They are a world leader in the use of torture; they deny freedoms of expression and press, association and assembly; they discriminate against women, girls, religious minorities, LGBTI people, and refugees. Tightly controlled elections ensure the success of desired candidates.

    Freedom House, a nonprofit organisation based in the US, gives Iran a score of 11 out of 100 for its provision of political rights and civil liberties. For many Iranians, it felt overdue when, in 2019, the US listed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation, a decision followed by other countries, including Canada and Sweden. In 2023, the European parliament overwhelmingly voted for a resolution to do the same, with calls to expedite this motion in early 2025.

    In parallel to their human rights abuses, the Revolutionary Guard has hobbled the Iranian economy. Their corruption, financial incompetence and operation of black markets have compounded the effects of international sanctions. Consequently, the Iranian rial hit a historic low this year. It is now worth around one twentieth of its value in 2015.

    People’s life savings have dwindled in value, rendering older Iranians financially vulnerable. Inflation was 38.7% in May of this year, down from highs of over 40%. My family in Iran experience this as grocery and commodity prices that may rise in a single day, higher in the afternoon than in the morning. Some cities have experienced water cuts and power outages.

    While it hasn’t yet qualified as a failed state, Iran has been failing.

    All of this has occurred despite the country being richly endowed with the second- and third-highest natural gas and oil reserves in the world, respectively. Iran has a GDP of over $US404 billion – 36th in the world. Its youth are highly educated and literate, with more women enrolled in universities than men.

    Rather than accelerating the nation’s domestic development, however, the Iranian government has by its own admission spent tens of billions of dollars to expand its empire by funding terrorist proxies: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the recently deposed Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    The Iranian people have suffered financially, but the Revolutionary Guards have not. They are estimated to control at least 10%, and up to 50%, of the country’s total economy, including up to an estimated 50% share of Iran’s US$50 billion per year oil profits. They have achieved this by commandeering an industrial empire, made up of hundreds of commercial companies, trusts, subsidiaries and nominally charitable foundations.

    A further US$2 billion or more per year comes from the government’s military budget, with periodic boosts during crises. Add to this the alleged shadowy operation of black markets, extortion, and the smuggling of alcohol, narcotics and weapons, accounting for an estimated US$12 billion per year in revenue.

    Contemplating this corruption, I am reminded of an anecdote from a personal associate who worked for a firm affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. They shared stories of officers, the nation’s purported “guardians of Islam”, hosting parties where alcohol, firearms and sex workers were readily available.

    My associate recounted several instances of fraud and theft, one of them monumental in scale. In this “tea smuggling scandal”, the Revolutionary Guard defrauded billions of dollars from a government fund by illicitly exchanging some funds on the open market, falsely labelling cheap tea to on-sell as superior quality tea, and falsely labelling domestically produced machinery as “Made in Germany”.

    “They’re untouchable, and they know it”, my associate said. Another Iranian community member described them to me as “Iran’s super-mafia”.

    Speaking to family in Iran, they say many of the middle tier Revolutionary Guards live in their own shahrak-ha (towns) with dedicated markets, schools and resorts. Many of the Guards’ elite, meanwhile, live in mansions in the exclusive parts of north Tehran, with children who pursue conspicuously American “lifestyles of the rich and famous”. For an organisation that leads the chants of “marg bar America!” (death to America), one wonders if they see the irony in this.

    Turn our dark night to dawn

    I find myself sickened by the events of this war, and the harm it is causing. Struck with anxiety, some of our family members in Tehran haven’t slept for days. “The Israeli bombardments are non-stop, and so loud,” one family member told me.

    This week our extended family has struggled frantically to leave Tehran. Petrol is hard to come by and, in a mass exodus, the bumper-to-bumper traffic stands still for hours. I know some of the neighbourhoods being bombed; we lived in one of them in my childhood.

    “For every military commander that’s assassinated, a whole building might collapse, and with a dozen civilians trapped or killed,” another person told me, intimating that the civilian toll is higher than official counts.

    I am also worried about the raised hopes of Iranians. I have seen this before, when a spark – sometimes an inspirational act of courage from an ordinary citizen – leads to public surges in solidarity. At these moments during my childhood, my parents would tell me that the regime’s time was limited, it’s downfall inevitable. Iranians would see better days and people power would prevail.

    Truth and goodness rise like cream, my Dad would say, as if echoing Dr Martin Luther King’s arc of the moral universe bending towards justice.

    A beautiful sentiment no doubt, but one that has become difficult to believe over time. It often appears that the universe’s arc bends towards power, not justice. Fairness seems the exception, hardly the rule. At the time, Dad’s reassurances were protective, even noble. But as the 1979 revolution and its aftermath have shown, might beats right most days of the week.

    The cruelty of the cruel and the tyranny of the hunter
    Have blown away my nest.
    O God, O Heavens, O Nature,
    Turn our dark night to dawn.

    As I explain to Australian friends: how can a people surpass a government that has (1) the military on its side, (2) a stranglehold on oil revenue, and (3) a purported mandate from God?

    Guns, money and a holy book – a hard trifecta to crack, and powerful enough to attract a sufficient minority of cronies, bottom feeders and sycophants.

    What’s the size of this ruling minority? It’s difficult to be sure, but a 2023 survey of 158,000 respondents within Iran found that only 15% supported the Islamic Republic. Small, but sufficient to produce crowds burning American and Israeli flags. I’ve always marvelled at the regime’s ability to manufacture these images; I’m told by associates that they now use AI to produce some of these.

    Women Life Freedom

    As current events unfold, I find myself deeply sceptical of all the political actors, whether Iranian, Israeli, American, Arab or Russian. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, none of them have shown any serious interest in supporting democratic reform in Iran. “They’ve all profited from this government,” a senior community member told me. “Why would that change now?”

    For the sake of sanity, I find myself searching for credible sources of hope. The only one I settle on is faith in the Iranian people themselves. This the culture that has surrounded me since childhood, the qualities I’ve seen first hand in my countrywomen and men, whether young or old, home or abroad, Muslim, Bahai or secular: a resilience, a resourcefulness, a propensity for joy, a confidence and pride in culture, and an ability to prevail, over and again.

    It’s a new spring, roses are in bloom…
    …O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.

    These qualities are periodically staged for the world to see. Iranian people have not taken their oppression lying down, rising in (mainly) peaceful protests. There have been some 10 mass protests since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The largest of these was the Green Movement in 2009, when it was estimated that over a million citizens marched in Tehran alone. As recently as May 2025, strikes took place in over 150 cities, involving hundreds of thousands of workers.

    For the most part, these demonstrations have been met with severe repression by state authorities. One episode, from September 2022, deserves special mention. The world watched in horror as the regime cracked down on young women in Iran. This was their response to the Zan Zendegi Azadi (Woman Life Freedom) movement, where mass protests were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Jina Amini.

    Amini was a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who had been detained by the government’s “Morality Police” for wearing an improper hijab. Three days into her detention she died under suspicious circumstances. A leaked CT scan showed a skull fracture and brain haemorrhage. This corroborated eyewitness accounts that Amini had been severely beaten by police.

    Intentionally or not, a dress code infringement had been punished by death. Even for Iranians long accustomed to state violence, this was too much. Mass protests erupted in more than 100 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

    The protests were led by women, many of them defiantly removing their headscarves. True to its nature, the regime responded violently. In the months that followed, over 20,000 protesters were imprisoned, many later testifying to having been tortured through electric shock, flogging, waterboarding and rape.

    Human Rights Watch estimates that over 500 civilians – including 68 children and adolescents – were killed by security forces, which included the paramilitary Basijis, Revolutionary Guard Corps, police and prison guards.

    Things would get darker. That December the regime was accused of deliberately poisoning over 1,200 students at Kharazmi and Ark universities on the eve of a planned protest. Soon thereafter, there were allegations of toxic gas attacks against thousands of schoolgirls, in apparent retaliation for removing their hijabs. By 2024, the UN had accused Iran of a coordinated campaign of crimes against humanity, a claim rejected by the regime.

    As an eye surgeon, I was distressed to read a letter signed by over 100 Iranian ophthalmologists detailing eye injuries among protesters. The letter alleged that security forces had deliberately targeted people’s eyes with teargas canisters, rubber bullets and shotgun fire, resulting in traumatic injuries and irreversible blindness among protesters.

    Dew drops are falling from my cloudy eyes
    This cage, like my heart, is narrow and dark.
    O fiery sigh set alight this cage
    O fate, do not pick the flower of my life.

    There were separate reports of women’s faces and genitals being targeted by shotgun fire. The regime appeared to have interfered with medical services: protestors transported to police stations in ambulances were arrested after surgery or denied treatment. Doctors were reportedly coerced to supply false death certificates to disguise the true cause of protestors’ deaths. The British Medical Journal documented healthcare professionals being arrested, intimidated, kidnapped or killed in retaliation for treating protesters.

    If we didn’t know it already, Zan Zendegi Azadi reminded us of the risks, if not futility, of advocating for change in Iran.

    When mass civil movements like this, performed ten times over, have not worked, what alternatives are the people left with? Brutalised and impoverished by their own government, should we be surprised when a traditionally Islamic people welcome a Jewish state’s decapitation of their political leaders? Is it not tempting, even if lazy, to invoke the historical comparison of Cyrus the Great, Persian King of the Achaemenid Empire, who freed the Jewish people from Babylonian captivity?

    For the people of Iran and Israel – at the risk of naivety and romanticism – are we approaching an age of karma?

    O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.
    O heart-lost bird, shorten, shorten, shorten,
    The tale of separation.

    An uncertain scenario

    Regarding Operation Rising Lion, it is safe to say that Iranians, like any healthy community, hold a diversity of views.

    At one end of the spectrum, those who unconditionally condemn Israel’s attack should consider that the Iranian government has stockpiled over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. While not enough to build a nuclear warhead, this is far more enriched uranium than is needed for peaceful purposes.

    The Iranian government has also vowed to “wipe Israel off the map” for decades. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians. In other words, Iran has said to Israel “we want to annihilate you, we’ll celebrate your deaths, and we could do it with nuclear weapons if we wished to”.

    Following Iran’s recent breach of its nonproliferation obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel says it has acted lawfully in attacking Iran for self-defense – a claim disputed by some international law experts. Even if one does not agree with Israel’s action, it is evident that they’ve long been baited by Iran.

    On the other side of the coin, Iranians who salute Israel and the US as their saviours should take caution. The US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declared as recently as March 2025 that there was no evidence that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, a finding corroborated by over a dozen other US intelligence elements including the CIA, the National Security Agency, and the Insitute for Defense Analyses.

    One cannot ignore the disturbing echoes of the 2003 war on Iraq, where the absence of evidence for weapons of mass destruction was intentionally misrepresented by the US and UK governments. The consequences for Iraq have been disastrous.

    As for Netanyahu and his administration, they have shown a ruthless pursuit of narrow self-interest in Gaza. The deaths and injuries inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on more than 50,000 Palestinian children appear to have done nothing to quell their ambitions.

    With regards to Netanyahu himself, he is facing corruption charges that could result in his domestic imprisonment and he has more recently been the subject of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, including starvation and murder.

    What can Iranians learn from this? The evidence suggests this could be a war of passion and opportunism for Israel, rather than one of legitimate self-defence. In any case, they are not waging it for the benefit of Iranians.

    Israel has a tendency to set ambitious military goals that it can’t achieve. While it promises Operation Rising Lion will soon end, its track record suggests otherwise.

    A protracted conflict would see Iran’s civilian toll rise much higher. Power outages and fuel shortages have already begun; what happens once water, medical and food scarcity set in? Since Iran doesn’t allow many international aid agencies onto its soil, who will come to the rescue of Iranians as things escalate?

    Truth’s life has come to an end
    Faith and fidelity have been replaced by the shield of war.
    Lover’s lament and beloved’s coyness,
    Are but lies and have no power.

    Even if Israel succeeds in capturing or killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, what happens next? With the Revolutionary Guard’s roots in place, there is no guarantee, and in fact a low likelihood, of true democratic reform. In recent times, foreign interference in the region has not gone well. Look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria: all evidence of catastrophic worsening after the removal of autocrats.

    This is a complex and uncertain scenario with little room for moral grandstanding. Disabling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities could be a net win, but the manner in which it is being done sets a dangerous precedent. For the Iranian people, Netanyahu’s ambitions could ultimately prove both heroic and villainous.

    The cup of the rich is full of pure wine,
    Our cup is filled with our heart’s blood.
    O anxious heart, cry out aloud
    And avoid those who have powerful hands.

    As I watch coverage of the war, I find myself drifting back to Shajarian’s voice and to Morq-e Sahar, probably for distraction and comfort. What is real is my faith in my fellow Iranians. Many examples comes to mind. One, during a trip to Iran, was when I stayed with family at a roadhouse. That evening, we heard music emanating from the courtyard and followed some steps into an dark basement beneath the accommodation.

    There we found a large gathering of young Iranians, two dozen or more men and women risking the law by hanging out together to sing. We joined them as strangers, seated on the floor and holding hands at times. In the dim light, the group sang and sang, a couple of them playing instruments.

    I can’t say I knew the songs or comprehended all the lyrics; I didn’t need to, to understand their meaning. You may force our people underground, you may cage them, bombard and even kill them. But you will never extinguish their eternal Persian spirit.

    O rosy-cheeked cup-bearer, give the fiery water,
    Play a joyful tune, O charming friend.
    O sad nightingale lament from your cage.
    Because of your grief my heart is
    Full of sparks, sparks, sparks.

    Hessom Razavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime? – https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-my-heart-is-full-of-sparks-as-war-escalates-can-i-hope-for-irans-liberation-from-a-tyrannical-regime-259275

    MIL OSI – Global Reports