Category: Banking

  • MIL-OSI Banking: [User Guide] Discover the Best Fit With Galaxy Watch Ultra and Galaxy Watch7 Bands

    Source: Samsung

    The smartwatch experience begins when a user fastens the band to their wrist — bands not only maximize the watch’s versatility but also add a personal touch to the user’s style.
     
    The Galaxy Watch Ultra and Galaxy Watch7 can be paired with a range of interchangeable band accessories, designed to each user’s unique needs and preferences. Samsung Newsroom has curated a selection of Galaxy Watch bands that enrich every moment from navigating daily life to embarking on extreme adventures.
     

     
     
    Galaxy Watch Ultra Bands: Made for Outdoor Experiences
    The Galaxy Watch Ultra is the most powerful Galaxy Watch. Optimized for extreme conditions, the Galaxy Watch Ultra takes outdoor experiences to the next level through a variety of bands — Marine Band, Trail Band and PeakForm Band — suited to different activities and environments.
     
    Changing bands has never been easier. For the first time, Samsung has introduced the Dynamic Lug System to improve the connection between the watch body and band. This mechanism is intuitive and convenient, allowing for effortless band removal and attachment with a simple press of a button. Not to mention, the watch body and band seamlessly connect to elevate overall aesthetics.
     
    ▲ (From left) Marine Band, Trail Band and PeakForm Band for the Galaxy Watch Ultra
     
    ▲ Dynamic Lug System
     
     
    Marine Band: Unmatched Durability in Water

     
    For those looking to time their swims with the Galaxy Watch Ultra, the Marine Band is an excellent choice. This band is specifically engineered to support aquatic activities with a breathable wavelike design and perforations for quick drying and a comfortable fit.
     
    ▲ The Marine Band offers improved breathability and durability for more freedom in the water.
     
    Made to withstand intense movement, the Marine Band features a lightweight and durable titanium buckle that incorporates a “double tongue” with two teeth for a stronger hold on the band. This structure ensures that the Galaxy Watch Ultra remains secure and performs optimally whether in the water or challenging outdoor environments.
     
     
    Trail Band: The Ultimate Running Mate

     
    Recommended for running, hiking and other active sports, the Trail Band weighs around 20 grams. The comfortable, wavy design of the fabric minimizes skin contact to ensure the band feels pleasant even when sweating. Moreover, the elastic band keeps the watch body secure on the wrist for more accurate workout tracking.
     
    ▲ (From left) The Trail Band’s triangular latch and hook
     
    The Trail Band offers a new buckle construction that combines a triangular latch and hook — allowing users to precisely adjust the fit by removing the latch, threading it through the holes on the side of the band and securing it with the hook. This design ensures that the hook does not come into direct contact with the skin for a comfortable workout free of snags.
     
     
    PeakForm Band: A Hybrid of Strength and Comfort
    Those seeking a stylish accessory during workouts and daily activities can look to the PeakForm Band. This versatile hybrid band combines robustness with a sleek design and accentuates the Galaxy Watch Ultra’s premium look.
     

     
    Notably, the PeakForm Band uses different materials on the exterior and interior surfaces. The exterior features a tightly woven fabric, whereas the interior is made of durable Hydrogenated Nitrile Butadiene Rubber (HNBR). This material is resistant to water and dirt for an optimal wearing experience that does not compromise style or mobility.
     
    ▲ The PeakForm Band uses different materials on both sides for optimal usability.
     
     
    Galaxy Watch7: Reimaging Everyday Elegance With Detailed Bands
    In addition to helping users stay on top of their health, the Galaxy Watch7 can transform into a fashion accessory when paired with a band that reflects the user’s personal style.
     
    The Galaxy Watch7’s one-click band design supports effortless swapping to suit various lifestyles. The available bands1 — Sport Band, Fabric Band and Athleisure Band — are designed to complement different activities from working out to sleeping.
     
    ▲ (From left) Sport Band, Fabric Band and Athleisure Band for the Galaxy Watch7
     
     
    Sport Band: A Workout Partner

     
    The Sport Band is the perfect accessory for a wide range of sports and activities with the Galaxy Watch7. Crafted from durable HNBR material, the band has a wavy design for breathability and comfort — suitable for even the sweatiest of workouts.
     
    ▲ Stitching details on the Galaxy Watch7 Sport Band
     
    Despite the focus on functionality, the band’s aesthetics have not been overlooked. The orange and light blue stitching at the end of the band adds a subtle yet stylish touch. Moreover, the band is available in a diverse palette of colors2 including cream, dark gray, green, orange and silver.
     
     
    Fabric Band: Effortlessly Light Even When Asleep

    The Fabric Band is perfect for users who wear their Galaxy Watch7 to sleep. Weighing about 10 grams,3 the band boasts a soft fabric texture and lightweight design for versatile wear all day and night.
     
    ▲ The Fabric Band has a Velcro strap that is simple to fasten and remove.
     
    A standout feature of the Fabric Band is the Velcro material, offering both easy adjustment and exceptional comfort. Without the bulk of a traditional buckle, the band feels lighter and more streamlined on the wrist. Subtle accent details at the ends enhance the design and showcase the fabric’s distinctive qualities.
     
     
    Athleisure Band: Style and Activity in One

     
    The newest addition to the Galaxy Watch series, the Athleisure Band is characterized by its distinctive double-loop design. This feature ensures a secure and flattering fit by allowing the extra length of the band to be tucked away through the loops. Available in a range of five colors4 — including green, cream, pink, silver and sky blue — the band serves as both a functional accessory and stylish statement piece.
     
    ▲ The Athleisure Band boasts a double-loop design.
     
    Utilizing the same HNBR material as the Sport Band and PeakForm Band, the Athleisure Band blends softness with durability and comfort with style to create a distinct look for any occasion.
     

     
    The band is essential to fully experiencing all the capabilities of the Galaxy Watch Ultra and Galaxy Watch7. Alongside the Galaxy Watch series, the bands have evolved to offer a wider array of customization options. Now with these new bands, users can unlock their potential and maximize the advanced features of the Galaxy Watch in their daily lives.
     
     
    1 Compatible with the Galaxy Watch4 series and later models, excluding the Galaxy Watch Ultra. Available colors and models may vary by country and region.2 Available colors and models may vary by country and region.3 The Galaxy Watch7 Fabric Band in Wide (M/L) weighs 10.2 grams. The Galaxy Watch7 Fabric Band in Slim (S/M) weighs 9.5 grams.4 Available colors and models may vary by country and region.

    MIL OSI Global Banks

  • MIL-OSI China: China, ASEAN countries reap fruits of high-quality development via Belt and Road cooperation

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    China, ASEAN countries reap fruits of high-quality development via Belt and Road cooperation

    An aerial drone photo taken on July 31, 2024 shows a view of Qinzhou Port in Qinzhou, south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region. [Photo/Xinhua]

    BEIJING, Oct. 8 — Chinese Premier Li Qiang will attend the 27th China-ASEAN Summit, the 27th ASEAN Plus Three Summit and the 19th East Asia Summit in the Lao capital Vientiane starting from Wednesday, and pay official visits to Laos and Vietnam.

    While pursuing high-quality development and advancing modernization, China has been offering new growth momentum to its neighbors connected by mountains and rivers, notably through Belt and Road cooperation with common development being a highlight.

    Experts said that Li’s upcoming trip to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is expected to boost bilateral relations, foster deeper and more substantive cooperation, and enhance people-to-people exchanges, which will further catalyze regional peace, stability and prosperity.

    ENHANCING CONNECTIVITY

    Laos is a landlocked country in Southeast Asia. Its landscape, largely covered by rugged mountains and high plateaus, forms natural barriers to efficient transportation, hindering the country’s development and the improvement of people’s livelihood.

    The China-Laos Railway has helped transform the country’s predicament into a growth opportunity, turning Laos into a land-linked hub on the Indo-China Peninsula.

    Passengers are seen at the Vientiane Station of the China-Laos Railway in Vientiane, Laos, April 11, 2024. [Photo/Xinhua]

    The 1,035-km railway, a landmark Belt and Road project, connects Kunming in southwest China’s Yunnan Province with Vientiane.

    Nearly three years into operation, the railway has handled over 10 million tons of imported and exported goods valued at about 5.7 billion U.S. dollars in total, with varieties of goods expanding from the initial 500 to more than 3,000, according to official data.

    Since the railway launched its international passenger service in April 2023, it has transported over 222,000 cross-border passengers as of early July this year, providing affordable, convenient and comfortable experiences to travelers.

    Daovone Phachanthavong, vice executive president of the Lao National Chamber of Commerce and Industry, told Xinhua the China-Laos Railway “has promoted regional connectivity and injected vitality into economic and social development along the line.”

    Vietnam, a neighbor of Laos, has enjoyed enhanced connectivity and more efficient logistics from infrastructure cooperation with China as well, which includes railway, expressway and port infrastructure.

    China-Vietnam freight trains are a good case in point. Since its launch in November 2017, the service has significantly boosted rapid cargo movement between the two countries and further into Southeast Asia.

    “China has strengths in capital, technology, and experience in infrastructure construction, while Vietnam is in need of infrastructure development in transportation, energy, and urban areas,” said Do Thi Thu, a senior lecturer at the Banking Academy of Vietnam.

    This aerial photo taken on Oct. 16, 2023 shows a China-Vietnam (L) and a China-Laos international cold-chain freight trains pulling out of Yanhe Station of Yuxi City, southwest China’s Yunnan Province. [Photo/Xinhua]

    BOOMING HIGH-QUALITY DEVELOPMENT

    Infrastructure construction has opened up broader prospects for practical cooperation between China and ASEAN countries in a rich variety of areas, driving stronger economic growth, closer exchanges and high-quality development.

    China is the largest foreign investor in Laos. A large chunk of the investment has funded infrastructure, development zones, as well as power transmission lines and hydropower plants, creating many jobs for local people and pushing forward Laos’ industrial upgrade.

    Daovone said that Laos sees huge potential for further deepening cooperation with China across such fields as agriculture, electric vehicles and trucks, electricity, mining, solar energy, tourism, as well as hotels and restaurants.

    Agriculture is the mainstay of the Lao economy. Laos exports bananas, rubber, cassava, sugarcane and others, with China being the largest buyer.

    Through the years, Chinese companies have collaborated with the Lao government on tropical agricultural science and technology, and Laos is seeking to promote sustainable agricultural production and increase exports to China through the China-Laos Railway.

    Vietnam, meanwhile, is China’s largest trading partner within ASEAN, and China has been Vietnam’s largest trading partner since 2004. Annual volume of two-way trade has exceeded 200 billion U.S. dollars for three consecutive years.

    Do, the Hanoi-based scholar, said that Vietnam-China “large cooperative projects on infrastructure, energy, and border area development have contributed to the socio-economic growth of both nations.”

    Vietnam-China trade cooperation “has bright prospects for deeper and more substantive cooperation in the future,” she said.

    She also said the introduction of fresh and frozen Vietnamese durians into the Chinese market shows the development of trade cooperation, exemplified by diversifying products within the same category and adding value.

    With Chinese consumers’ demand for durians on the rise, China is now the world’s largest importer and consumer of durians. Last year, some 493,000 tons of fresh Vietnamese durians were sold to China.

    Vietnamese vendors sell durians in Dongxing, south China’s Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, on May 18, 2023. [Photo/Xinhua]

    Do also pointed out the abundant opportunities in substantive development of bilateral trade, noting the two countries can further enhance cooperation particularly in high-tech agriculture and e-commerce.

    “China has advanced significantly in technology and innovation, while Vietnam is undergoing a digital transformation and developing its digital economy, creating great potential for cooperation in information technology, artificial intelligence, financial technology, and digital transformation in manufacturing,” she added.

    CLOSER COMMUNITY FOR BROADER PROSPERITY

    The flagship projects realized through high-quality cooperation between China and ASEAN nations have become benchmarks of their ever-closer relationships, the strengthening of which is conducive to regional prosperity and peace, experts have said.

    This year marks the 15th anniversary of the China-Laos comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership. In October 2023, leaders of the two countries signed a new five-year action plan for building a China-Laos community with a shared future, injecting new momentum into the further development of bilateral ties.

    Photo taken on Oct. 16, 2016 shows the border trade on the Beilun River on the China-Vietnam border. [Photo/Xinhua]

    Daovone greatly appreciates the friendship between the two socialist countries, which is maintained by the top leaders of both countries and exchanges between the two peoples.

    Laos-China relations have been moving forward at a high level, he said, expressing the hope that Li’s upcoming visit to Laos will further advance this relationship. As Laos is the current rotating chair of ASEAN, Li’s attendance at related gatherings “will make the summit more colorful.”

    Vietnam, another socialist neighbor, shares cultural and social affinities with China. Last year, the two countries announced the building of a China-Vietnam community with a shared future that carries strategic significance, ushering in a new stage in their ties.

    “Mutual assistance during difficult times, such as supporting each other during the resistance against colonialism and imperialism, post-war reconstruction, and overcoming the COVID-19 pandemic, has strengthened the friendship between our two countries,” Do said.

    As the world is facing rising challenges and geopolitical competition, “a successful bilateral community like Vietnam-China could inspire other bilateral and multilateral communities with a shared future, such as between China and ASEAN,” she said.

    Do noted that working towards a community with a shared future helps Vietnam and China focus on sustainable development goals, including environmental protection, climate change response and food security.

    “It allows the two countries to address common challenges and promote development for the benefit of their peoples, as well as for peace, stability, and prosperity in the region,” she said.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI USA: Jefferson, A History of the Fed’s Discount Window: 1913–2000

    Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

    Thank you, President Hicks and Tara Boehmler, for the kind introduction.1
    Let me start by saying that I am saddened by the tragic loss of life, destruction, and damage resulting from Hurricane Helene in North Carolina, and throughout this region. My thoughts are with the people and communities affected, including those in the Davidson College family. For our part, the Federal Reserve and other federal and state financial regulatory agencies are working with banks and credit unions in the affected area to help make sure they can continue to meet the financial services needs of their communities.
    I am happy to be back at Davidson College. This is a special community. I am bound to it by a shared experience defined not by its length, but by its intensity. As I visited with you today, and as I look around this hall, I see the faces of colleagues who became dear friends during the COVID-19 pandemic. Back then, we spoke often about the unprecedented uncertainty we faced. Amidst that uncertainty, however, we supported each other on this campus. Now, looking back, we can attest that this mutual support was vital. I am grateful to have been amongst you during that unprecedented time. Today, I am proud to see that Davidson is stronger than ever.
    I am excited to be here with you this evening and to talk to you about the history of the Federal Reserve’s discount window.2 The discount window is one of the tools the Fed uses to support the liquidity and stability of the banking system, and to implement monetary policy effectively. It was created in 1913 when the Fed was established. Today, more than 110 years later, this tool continues to play an important role. At the Fed, we always look for ways to improve our tools, including our discount window operations. Recently, the Fed published a request for information document to receive feedback from the public regarding operational aspects of the discount window and intraday credit.3
    Today, I will do three things. First, I will discuss briefly my outlook for the U.S. economy. Second, I will offer my historical perspective on the discount window, starting in 1913 and ending in 2000. Finally, I will provide a few details about the request for information the Fed recently published.
    Tomorrow, I will say more about the discount window when I speak at the Charlotte Economics Club.
    Economic Outlook and Considerations for Monetary PolicyEconomic activity continues to grow at a solid pace. Inflation has eased substantially. The labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state.

    As you can see in slide 3, personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices rose 2.2 percent over the 12 months ending in August, well down from 6.5 percent two years earlier. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.7 percent, compared with 5.2 percent two years earlier. Our restrictive monetary policy stance played a role in restraining demand and in keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of inflation surveys of households, businesses, and forecasters as well as measures from financial markets. Inflation is now much closer to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) 2 percent objective. I expect that we will continue to make progress toward that goal.
    While, overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace, the labor market has modestly cooled. Employers added an average of 186,000 jobs per month during July through September, a slower pace than seen early this year. A shown in slide 4, the unemployment rate now stands at 4.1 percent, up from 3.8 percent in September 2023. Meanwhile, job openings declined by about 4 million since their peak in March 2022. The good news is that the rise in unemployment has been limited and gradual, and the level of unemployment remains historically low. Even so, the cooling in the labor market is noticeable.
    Congress mandated the Fed to pursue maximum employment and price stability. The balance of risks to our two mandates has changed—as risks to inflation have diminished and risks to employment have risen, these risks have been brought roughly into balance. The FOMC has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward our 2 percent goal. To maintain the strength of the labor market, my FOMC colleagues and I recalibrated our policy stance last month, lowering our policy interest rate by 1/2 percentage point, as shown in slide 5.
    Looking ahead, I will carefully watch incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks when considering additional adjustments to the federal funds target range, our primary tool for adjusting the stance of monetary policy. My approach to monetary policymaking is to make decisions meeting by meeting. As the economy evolves, I will continue to update my thinking about policy to best promote maximum employment and price stability.
    Discount Window History1913: The Fed was establishedNow, I will turn to my perspective on the history of the discount window. Understanding this history is important as we consider ways to ensure the discount window continues to serve effectively in its critical role of providing liquidity to the banking system as the economy and financial system evolve.
    Before the Federal Reserve was founded, the U.S. experienced frequent financial panics. One example is illustrated in slide 6 with a newspaper clipping from the Rocky Mountain Times printed on July 19, 1893. It depicts panic swirling against banks at a time when bank runs swept through midwestern and western cities such as Chicago, Denver, and Los Angeles. The illustration shows how waves of panic hit public confidence, the rocks in the picture, and how banks have a fortress mentality. They stand strong against the panic, but they are not lending, and they are isolated.
    Back then, the supply of money to the economy was inelastic in the short term, in part because the monetary system in the U.S. was based on the gold standard. Demand for cash, however, varied over the course of the year and was particularly strong during harvest season, when crops were brought to the market. The surge in demand for cash, combined with the inelastic supply of money in the short term, caused financial conditions to tighten seasonally. The banking system was fairly good at moving money to where it needed to go, but it had little scope to expand the total amount of money available in response to the U.S. economy’s needs. So if a shock hit the economy when financial conditions were already tight, then the banking system struggled to provide the extra liquidity needed. Banks would seek to preserve liquidity by reducing their investments and denying loan requests, for example. Depositors, fearful that they might not be able to access their funds when they needed them, would rush to withdraw their money. Of course, that caused the banks to conserve further on liquidity. In some cases, they simply closed their doors until the storm passed. When banks closed their doors, economic activity would contract.4 Activity would recover when the banks reopened, but the economic suffering in the meantime was meaningful.
    In addition to the supply of money in the economy being inelastic in the short term, two prominent frictions, asymmetric information and externalities, made banks and private markets vulnerable to systemic crises. Here, asymmetric information refers to the fact that customers do not have access to all the information they need to evaluate whether a bank is insolvent, illiquid, or both.5 Therefore, customers rely on imperfect signals, such as news reports about another bank failing, to decide whether to withdraw their money from their own bank.
    Then there are externalities, in the sense that an individual bank may not consider how an innocent bystander may be negatively impacted by its actions. When a financial institution fails, that may lead depositors to withdraw money from other unrelated banks, which may in turn cause those banks to fail. Contagion can transform a single bank failure into a systemic crisis, where many banks fail, credit evaporates, the stock market collapses, the economy enters a recession, and the unemployment rate increases dramatically.
    The severe financial panic of 1907 stands out as an example of market failure due to these two prominent frictions. The panic was triggered by a series of bad banking decisions that led to a frenzy of withdrawals caused by asymmetric information and public distrust in the liquidity of the banking system.6 Banks in many large cities, including financial centers such as New York and Chicago, simply stopped sending payments outside of their communities. The resulting disruption in the payment system and to the flow of liquidity through the banking system led to a severe, though short-lived, economic contraction. This experience led Congress to pass the Federal Reserve Act in 1913.7 This act created the Federal Reserve System, composed of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C., and 12 Federal Reserve Banks across the country.8
    In 1913, the main monetary policy tool at the Fed’s disposal was the discount window. At that time, the Fed did not use open market operations—the buying and selling of government securities in the open market—to conduct monetary policy. Instead, the Fed adjusted the money supply by lending directly to banks that needed funds through the discount window. The Fed’s ability to provide funds to banks as needed made the money supply of the U.S. more elastic and considerably reduced the seasonal volatility in interest rates.9 This ability also enabled the Fed to provide stability in times of stress, helping banks that experienced rapid withdrawals to satisfy their customers’ demand for liquidity and thereby potentially preventing banking panics.
    1920s: The Fed began to discourage strongly use of the discount windowIn fact, many researchers have argued that the existence of the Fed’s discount window prevented a financial crisis in the early 1920s, when the banking sector came under pressure as the U.S. economy transitioned to a peacetime economy following the end of World War I.10 There had been an agricultural boom during the war and a significant accumulation of debt within that sector. Farmers came under pressure as the prices of agricultural goods dropped from wartime highs. The banks sought to support their customers, and the Fed sought to support the banks. There were serious concerns about the condition of several banks in parts of the country. The Fed’s discount window lending provided critical support that saved many banks but also resulted in habitual use of the discount window by some banks during the 1920s.11
    Slide 7 shows that as of August 1925, 593 member banks, 6 percent of the total, had been borrowing for a year or more from Federal Reserve Banks. Moreover, there were real solvency problems, and several banks failed with discount window loans outstanding. These challenges resulted in the Fed strongly discouraging banks from continuous borrowing from the discount window and the adoption of a policy of encouraging a “reluctance to borrow.”12
    By 1926, the Fed was explicit that borrowing at the discount window was meant to be short term. As I emphasize in slide 8, the Federal Reserve’s annual report for 1926 stated that while continuous borrowing by a member bank may be necessary, depending on local economic conditions, “the funds of the Federal reserve banks are primarily intended to be used in meeting the seasonal and temporary requirements of members, and continuous borrowing by a member bank as a general practice would not be consistent with the intent of the Federal reserve act.”13
    The late 1920s also highlighted Fed concerns about the purpose of the borrowing. The Fed sought to distinguish between “speculative security loans” and loans for “legitimate business.”14 A staff reappraisal of the discount mechanism stated that “[t]he controversy over direct pressure intensified in the latter part of the 1920s as an increasing flow of bank credit went into the stock market.”15 In short, the Fed observed that some banks were becoming habitual borrowers from the discount window. It was concerned that an overreliance on discount window borrowings would weaken banks and make them more prone to failure.
    In the late 1920s, the Fed switched to open market operations as its primary tool for conducting monetary policy.16 That allowed the Fed to determine the aggregate amount of liquidity in the system and to rely on private financial markets to distribute it efficiently. The discount window would thus serve as a safety valve if there was a shock that caused conditions to tighten unexpectedly or if individual banks experienced idiosyncratic shocks or somehow lost access to interbank markets.
    The intention of this set-up was for banks to use the discount window to borrow from the Fed only occasionally. Ordinarily and predominantly, financial institutions were supposed to rely on private markets for their funding. This set-up was designed to limit moral hazard—the possibility that institutions take unnecessary risks when there is no market discipline. This is the key balancing act. The Fed needs to be a reliable backstop to prevent financial crises, but it also needs to minimize moral hazard that comes from always standing ready to provide support.
    1930s–1940s: The Great Depression and WWIIDuring the Great Depression in the 1930s, the banking system experienced severe stress, including many bank runs. There are many reasons why the discount window was insufficient to address the problems in the banking system in the 1930s. I will highlight only two. First, many banks were insolvent rather than illiquid. Central bank lending is not a fundamental solution in those circumstances. When banks are insolvent, it is important to manage the closure in as orderly a manner as possible. The establishment of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) in 1933 gave bank regulators increased ability to do that. Relatedly, the challenging experiences of lending to troubled banks in the 1920s likely made the Fed more reluctant to lend in circumstances in which solvency concerns were material. Second, the types of collateral that the Fed was initially able to accept when lending to banks were quite limited.
    In response, in the early 1930s Congress expanded the range of banking assets that could serve as collateral for discount window loans and added a variety of new Fed emergency lending authorities.17 These new lending authorities were used in the 1930s to help alleviate distress. Some were also used in the early 1940s as the Fed helped support the World War II mobilization effort.
    The period following the war was relatively calm. The role of the discount window shifted from addressing distress in the banking system to acting as a safety valve to manage tightness in money markets and support monetary policy operations.
    1950–2000: Measures to discourage discount window borrowingIn March 1951, the U.S. Treasury and the Fed reached an agreement to separate government debt management from the conduct of monetary policy, thereby laying the foundation for the modern Fed.18
    In the 1950s, the Fed set the interest rate on discount window loans above market rates. Thus, it served as an effective ceiling on the federal funds rate. The Fed continued to discourage extensive use of the discount window, but the relatively high interest rate also made its sustained use less attractive.
    In the 1960s, the Fed placed greater emphasis on open market operations to set its monetary policy stance. Concurrently, the Fed shifted to a policy of setting the interest rate on discount window loans below the market rates. Because the interest rate no longer deterred use of the window, the Fed turned increasingly to other measures, such as administrative pressures and moral suasion, to limit the frequency with which banks requested loans from the discount window. Indeed, between the late 1920s and the 1980s, the Fed adopted and amended numerous restrictions on discount window borrowing. Whenever discount window usage increased too much, the Fed tightened the restrictions to suppress borrowing.
    For example, in the 1950s, the Fed defined appropriate and inappropriate discount window borrowing. In particular, the Board’s regulations in 1955 stated that “[u]nder ordinary conditions, the continuous use of Federal Reserve credit by a member bank over a considerable period of time is not regarded as appropriate” and provided more details on how Reserve Banks should evaluate the “purpose” of a credit request.19 By 1973, the Board had made additional changes to its regulations on discount window use and defined three distinct discount window programs: adjustment credit, intended to help depository institutions meet short-term liquidity needs; seasonal credit, intended to help small depository institutions manage liquidity needs that arise from seasonal swings in loans and deposits; and extended credit, intended to help depository institutions that have somewhat longer-term liquidity needs resulting from exceptional circumstances.20
    Over time, the Board added provisions in its regulations requiring banks to exhaust other sources of funding before using discount window credit.21 In addition, in the early 1980s, the Fed levied a surcharge on frequent borrowings by large banks to augment the administrative restrictions.22 Despite these policies to discourage use of the discount window, slide 9 shows that discount window borrowing, adjusted for the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, was notable in the 1970s and 1980s, suggesting that the discount window was an important marginal source of funding for banks during that period.
    That changed in the 1980s and early 1990s, when there were notable solvency problems in the banking industry. During this period, the discount window provided support to troubled institutions, while the FDIC sought to find merger partners or otherwise manage the failure of these institutions in an orderly manner. The discount window activity that took place while FDIC resolutions proceeded increased the association between use of the discount window and being a troubled institution.23 As a result, banks became more reluctant to borrow from the discount window. The greater reluctance to borrow from the discount window made it less effective, both as a monetary policy tool and as a crisis-fighting tool. That resulted in a series of efforts by the Fed in the early 2000s to change how the discount window operates. Tomorrow, I will discuss those efforts when I speak at the Charlotte Economics Club.
    A request for informationBefore closing, I’d like to return to where I began. Understanding the history of the discount window is important as we consider ways to ensure it continues to serve effectively in its critical role in providing liquidity to the banking system as the economy and financial system evolve. One way to ensure it continues to serve effectively is to collect feedback from the public. Slide 10 provides some touch points on the Board’s request for information document. The request for information seeks feedback from the public on a range of operational practices for the discount window and intraday credit, including the collection of legal documents; the process for pledging and withdrawing collateral; the process for requesting, receiving and repaying discount window advances; the extension of intraday credit; and Reserve Bank communications practices. My colleagues and I are looking forward to this feedback to inform potential future enhancements to discount window operations. The period for responding to our request for information ends on December 9, 2024.
    Thank you to the event organizers and to the Davidson College community for the opportunity to discuss this important topic with you. It has been such a pleasure to be back on campus.
    ReferencesAnderson, Clay (1971). “Evolution of the Role and the Functioning of the Discount Mechanism,” in Reappraisal of the Federal Reserve Discount Mechanism, vol. 1. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, pp. 133–65.
    Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1922). 8th Annual Report, 1921. Washington: Government Printing Office.
    ——— (1926). Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 12 (July).
    ——— (1927). 13th Annual Report, 1926. Washington: Government Printing Office.
    Carlson, Mark (forthcoming). The Young Fed: The Banking Crises of the 1920s and the Making of a Lender of Last Resort. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    Clouse, James (1994). “Recent Developments in Discount Window Policy (PDF),” Federal Reserve Bulletin, vol. 80 (November), pp. 965–77.
    Goodhart, Charles A.E. (1988). The Evolution of Central Banks. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
    Gorton, Gary (1988). “Banking Panics and Business Cycles,” Oxford Economic Papers, vol. 40 (December), pp. 751–81.
    Gorton, Gary, and Andrew Metrick (2013). “The Federal Reserve and Financial Regulation: The First Hundred Years,” NBER Working Paper Series 19292. Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, August.
    Meltzer, Allan (2003). A History of the Federal Reserve, Volume 1: 1913–1951. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
    Miron, Jeffrey A. (1986). “Financial Panics, the Seasonality of the Nominal Interest Rate, and the Founding of the Fed,” American Economic Review, vol. 76 (March), pp. 125–40.
    Meulendyke, Ann-Marie (1992). “Reserve Requirements and the Discount Window in Recent Decades (PDF),” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Quarterly Review, vol. 17 (Autumn), pp. 25–43.
    Shull, Bernard (1971). “Report on Research Undertaken in Connection with a System Study,” in Reappraisal of the Federal Reserve Discount Mechanism, vol. 1. Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, pp. 27–77.
    Terrell, Ellen (2021). “United Copper, Wall Street, and the Panic of 1907,” Library of Congress, Inside Adams: Science, Technology & Business (blog), March 9.
    Willis, Henry Parker (1923). The Federal Reserve System: Legislation, Organization and Operation. New York: The Ronald Press Company.

    1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text
    2. The discount window is a monetary policy facility where depository institutions can request to borrow money against collateral from the Fed. The term “window” originates with the now obsolete practice of sending a bank representative to a Reserve Bank physical teller window when a bank needed to borrow money. The term “discount” refers to how depository institutions borrow money on a discount basis—interest amount for the entire loan period (plus other charges, if any) is deducted from the principal at the time a loan is disbursed. Return to text
    3. The Federal Reserve provides intraday credit to depository institutions to foster a safe and efficient payment system. For more information on intraday credit and the Board’s Payment System Risk policy, see “Payment System Risk” on the Board’s website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/paymentsystems/psr_about.htm. Return to text
    4. See, for example, Goodhart (1988). Return to text
    5. Illiquidity is a short-term cash flow problem. An illiquid bank cannot pay its current obligations, such as deposit withdrawals, even though the value of the bank’s assets exceeds the value of its liabilities. In other words, illiquidity means the bank does not currently have the resources to meet its current obligations. With a short-term loan, an illiquid bank would be able to pay its obligations. Insolvency is a long-term balance sheet problem. Total obligations of an insolvent bank are larger than its total assets. A short-term loan would not help an insolvent bank. Of course, evaluating the quality of a bank’s loan book in real time to determine whether a bank is solvent can be extremely challenging during a crisis. In addition, in some cases, illiquidity caused by large deposit withdrawals can lead banks to sell assets at fire-sale prices that then impairs their solvency. Conversely, concerns about insolvency, even if unfounded, can lead to liquidity problems. In the bank run literature, the connections between liquidity and solvency are a key factor that gives rise to runs. Return to text
    6. The panic of 1907 started in October 1907 when three brothers—F. Augustus Heinze, Otto Heinze, and Arthur P. Heinze—as well as Charles W. Morse attempted to manipulate the price of United Copper stock by purchasing a large number of shares of the company. Their plan failed, and the stock price of United Copper collapsed. The collapse led to depositor runs on banks and trust companies associated with the Heinzes and Morse. This included a run on the Knickerbocker Trust Company, whose president was connected to Morse. The Knickerbocker Trust Company failed, and the New York Stock Exchange fell nearly 50 percent from its peak of the previous year in the wake of the failure. See Terrell (2021). Return to text
    7. To aid its thinking on reforming the monetary system, Congress established the National Monetary Commission. The landmark 24 volume report from the commission provides a rich review of the operations of central banks in other countries, a history of financial crises in the U.S., and an appraisal of the state of the contemporary banking system in the U.S. at the time. Return to text
    8. See “History and Purpose of the Federal Reserve” on the St. Louis Fed’s website at https://www.stlouisfed.org/in-plain-english/history-and-purpose-of-the-fed. Return to text
    9. See Miron (1986). Return to text
    10. See, for example, Gorton (1988). Willis (1923) and Board of Governors (1922) also suggest that the Fed prevented a crisis from happening in 1920. Return to text
    11. See Carlson (forthcoming). Return to text
    12. See Shull (1971, pp. 33–34). Return to text
    13. See Board of Governors (1927, p. 4). In 1926, approximately one-third of all banks in the U.S. were member banks, holding about 60 percent of the total loans and investments for all banks; see Board of Governors (1926). Banks receiving charters from the federal government were required to become members of the Federal Reserve System while banks receiving charters from state governments had the option to become members. Discount window borrowing was originally limited to Federal Reserve System member banks. The Monetary Control Act of 1980 opened the window to all depository institutions. Return to text
    14. See Gorton and Metrick (2013). Return to text
    15. See Anderson (1971, p. 137). In the statement, “direct pressure” refers to the Fed policy of pressuring banks not to borrow from the window. Congress may have shared some of those concerns, as the Federal Reserve Act was amended in 1933 to include a passage in section 4 requiring Reserve Banks to be careful about speculative uses of the Federal Reserve credit. Return to text
    16. Open market operations are the purchase or sale of securities (for example, U.S. Treasury bonds) in the open market by the Fed. In modern times, the short-term objective for open market operations is specified by the FOMC. For more information, please refer to “Open Market Operations” on the Board’s website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. Return to text
    17. There are several banking acts that do this, but especially the Banking Act of 1932, the Emergency Relief and Construction Act of 1932, and the Banking Act of 1935. Yet one more reason why the discount window was insufficient to address the problems of the banking system in the 1930s is that, during this period, nonmember banks did not have access to the discount window. These banks suffered the most during the Great Depression. The ability of nonmember banks to access the window only changed in 1980 with the Monetary Control Act. Return to text
    18. After the U.S. entered World War II, the Federal Reserve supported efforts by the Treasury to hold down the cost of financing the war by establishing caps on interest rates on Treasury securities (see, for instance, Meltzer, 2003, Chapter 7). The cap pertaining to longer-term interest rates continued to be in place until the 1951 agreement. Return to text
    19. See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Advances and Discounts by Federal Reserve Banks, 20 Fed. Reg. 261, 263 (PDF) (Jan. 12, 1955). Return to text
    20. See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Extensions of Credit by Federal Reserve Banks, 38 Fed. Reg. 9065, 9076-9077 (PDF) (April 10, 1973). Return to text
    21. By 1980, the Board’s regulations stated that adjustment credit “generally is available only after reasonable alternative sources of funds, including credit from special industry lenders, such as Federal Home Loan Banks, the National Credit Union Administration’s Central Liquidity Facility, and corporate central credit unions have been fully used”; seasonal credit was “available only if similar assistance is not available from other special industry lenders”; and other extended credit was available only “where similar assistance is not reasonably available from other sources, including special industry lenders”; see Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Extensions of Credit by Federal Reserve Banks, 45 Fed. Reg. 54009, 54009-54011 (PDF) (Aug. 14, 1980). See also Clouse (1994). Return to text
    22. See Meulendyke (1992). Return to text
    23. A congressional inquiry found that this lending likely increased losses to the deposit insurance funds at the time and led to limitations on the ability of the Federal Reserve to provide loans to troubled depository institutions as part of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act of 1991. Return to text

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Review of the Term Funding Facility

    Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

    The Bank today released the Reserve Bank Board’s Review of the Term Funding Facility. This review is one element of a broader set of reviews the Board has undertaken of the monetary policies it adopted in response to the pandemic. The purpose of the reviews is to be transparent and open about the experience and draw out lessons.

    Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), will share some observations on the Term Funding Facility in his speech today at 11am (AEDT).

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: A Review of the RBA’s Term Funding Facility

    Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

    Thank you for coming to the Reserve Bank’s offices today. I will talk about a review we have published on the Term Funding Facility (TFF). This is the fourth instalment of the series of reviews of unconventional policy tools the RBA used during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    In March 2020, the economic outlook was bleak and highly uncertain (Graph 1), financial markets were in turmoil, and there was limited scope to lower the cash rate further. In that environment, the RBA pursued a package of policies to support the economy. The TFF review considers how that element of the package worked, whether it achieved its aims, and lessons for the future. I will cover the key points but there is a lot of detail in the review itself.

    What was the TFF intended to do?

    The TFF aimed to:

    • lower the cost of borrowing for businesses and households, by lowering lenders’ funding costs, and to reinforce the benefits to the economy of the lower cash rate
    • encourage banks to lend to businesses – particularly small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) – given that business credit tends to fall in downturns.

    How did it work?

    The TFF provided low-cost three-year funding to banks, which also indirectly helped to lower the cost of borrowing from wholesale markets.

    Under the TFF, banks had access to cheap funding up to an amount that was based on the initial size and subsequent growth of their loan book. The interest rate was initially fixed at 0.25 per cent. This was lowered to 0.1 per cent in step with the reduction in the cash rate target in November 2020. A bank was able to secure additional TFF allowances if it increased its overall lending to businesses, particularly smaller businesses. For each dollar of additional credit extended to large businesses, a bank was eligible for another dollar of TFF funding. For each additional dollar extended to SMEs, a bank had five more dollars added to its TFF allowance.

    Banks could access their allowances up to the end of September 2020. However, by the time of the September Board meeting, the economy was still far from the RBA’s goals, and considerable downside risks remained. The Board decided to extend the facility and increase banks’ allowances; banks could access their new allowances for three-year fixed-rate loans until mid-2021.

    TFF funding was much cheaper than other sources of term funding. Unsurprisingly, banks took up most of their TFF allowances (Table 1). The TFF ultimately provided $188 billion of funding, which was equivalent to 6 per cent of the stock of credit outstanding at the peak of the TFF’s use. Banks repaid all TFF funds as scheduled by mid-2024 without incident.

    Table 1: TFF Usage Across Banks
      Amount drawn
    $ billion
    Share of total allowances
    Per cent
    Major banks 133 100.0
    Mid-sized banks 24 99.6
    Small banks 9 58.3
    Foreign banks 22 54.2
    Total across all banks 188 88.3

    Sources: APRA; RBA.

    To summarise its effect on funding costs for banks and others with access to wholesale funding markets:

    • The TFF lowered banks’ funding costs directly. For the major banks, the TFF was around 60 basis points cheaper than issuing bonds during the TFF drawdown phase (Graph 2). It lowered their average cost of funds by around 5 basis points.
    • Together with other parts of the policy package, the TFF also indirectly helped to lower the cost of wholesale funding. With the TFF in place, banks had little need to issue bonds but investor demand for those and other similar securities remained strong. Strong demand coupled with a sharp fall in supply contributed to a decline in yields on a range of existing and newly issued securities. This included securities issued by non-major banks (which continued to issue bonds). Non-bank lenders also benefited significantly; their issuance of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) – a key source of their funding – picked up significantly as the cost of issuance dropped sharply (Graph 3).

    Did the TFF achieve its aims?

    Banks passed lower funding costs through to retail lending rates for both households and businesses, on both new and outstanding loans. On average, outstanding lending rates fell by almost 100 basis points – a little more than the 84 basis point decline in banks’ overall cost of funding (Table 2). The fall in business rates was comparable across variable- and fixed-rate loans, with larger reductions for SMEs than was the case for larger businesses. But the fall in mortgage rates was much more pronounced for fixed-rate loans; the decline in fixed rates was also large relative to the reduction in the cash rate compared with earlier episodes of monetary policy easing. Banks’ decisions to provide fixed-rate mortgages at very attractive rates was consistent with the low fixed-rate TFF loans as well as banks choosing to focus their competitive efforts in the fixed-rate mortgage market.

    Table 2: Changes in Funding Costs and Outstanding Lending Rates

    February 2020 – February 2022

      Change
    Basis points
    Cash rate target −65
    Funding costs(a) −84
    Overall mortgage rates −97
    – Variable mortgage rates −68
    – Fixed mortgage rates −152
    Overall business lending rates −105
    – Variable business lending rates −103
    – Fixed business lending rates −89

    (a) Major banks.

    Sources: APRA; ASX; Bloomberg; LSEG; major bank liaison; RBA.

    Households and businesses that took out fixed-rate loans benefited from the particularly low fixed rates on offer at the time. The share of new housing lending at fixed rates rose from around 15 per cent at the start of the pandemic to a historical high of over 45 per cent by mid-2021. Not only were existing borrowers switching from variable to fixed rates, but new mortgage lending also picked up noticeably through 2020 and into 2021 (Graph 4). In addition, lower rates contributed to a pick-up in disposable incomes of debtors. In these ways the TFF (together with other parts of the policy package) helped to support dwelling investment, the housing market more broadly, and other elements of aggregate demand.

    The TFF was also intended to support the availability of credit. We were particularly concerned that banks might have been reluctant to continue to extend credit to businesses during such difficult times. The TFF is likely to have played a role in underpinning business credit. It encouraged demand by contributing to lower rates for borrowers. It also encouraged banks to expand lending to businesses to obtain additional low-cost TFF loans. Indeed, business credit held up better during the pandemic than in the global financial crisis (GFC) (Graph 5); such declines had also been evident in earlier downturns. Despite the supporting role of the TFF, total business credit may not have increased through 2020 and 2021 for several reasons, including a lack of business confidence and the reduced need for business credit given the sizeable government support to businesses’ cashflows. And despite the considerable incentives in the TFF to expand SME lending, staff estimates found no statistically significant effect on total SME lending compared with large businesses.

    While not an explicit goal, one other benefit of the TFF was the indirect support it provided to the public sector balance sheet. By supporting stronger economic outcomes, the TFF – together with other monetary policy measures – contributed to higher tax revenues and lower support payments to households and businesses than would otherwise have been the case.

    How much did the TFF cost?

    The TFF was part of the insurance the RBA took out against a catastrophic economic outcome. While some of the TFF’s design features underpinned its significant use by the banks – and hence its economic benefits more broadly – these were also associated with financial costs for the RBA. The total cost to the RBA is estimated to have been $9 billion. There were several reasons for this cost.

    First, the choice to supply funds at a fixed rate was intended to give banks and their borrowers certainty, thereby reinforcing the other elements of the policy package: notably the RBA’s three-year yield target, and its forward guidance. But the economic recovery and increase in inflation turned out to be much stronger, and started much earlier, than the initial upside scenarios considered by most economists and the RBA. As a result, the Board ended up raising the cash rate target by much more and much sooner than had been expected (Graph 6). While the TFF was profitable for the RBA until May 2022, once the cash rate increased, the RBA was paying banks more interest for the balances that they kept at the RBA than the low fixed rate the banks were paying on the TFF. Because the banks passed these lower funding costs in full, household and business borrowers who had locked in low fixed rates were the ultimate beneficiaries as interest rates rose.

    Second, around $4 billion of this cost was the result of the Board’s decision to extend the TFF in early September 2020. At that time, the banks had taken up just 60 per cent of their initial TFF allowances, with almost half of that occurring as late as August (Graph 7). This suggested that the banks did not need TFF funding to compete for, or satisfy, the demand for borrowing from households and businesses. Rather, the banks waited until as late as practical to draw down TFF funds because doing so extended the time the TFF would contribute to meeting regulatory liquidity requirements on the banks. A similar pattern of late take-up was later observed with the second tranche of the TFF.

    Some lessons for the future

    The TFF delivered on its goals. It lowered borrowing costs for a range of borrowers, kept credit flowing to the economy, and supported aggregate demand. In addition, along with other measures – including the purchase of bonds in the early weeks of the pandemic – it helped to restore confidence in financial markets, which were significantly disrupted in the early days of the pandemic.

    Based on the findings of the review, the Board judged that a term lending tool of this kind would be worth considering again if warranted by extreme circumstances. But there were valuable lessons we learnt along the way that could help to shape any future program of this type.

    Degree of support for the economy versus flexibility

    Central banks can choose between fixed- or variable-rate facilities. The fixed-rate option was chosen for the TFF in part to reinforce other policies: the yield target and forward guidance. Such policy packages can be particularly valuable when the standard interest rate lever is already near zero and significant downside risks to the economy remain. But the flipside to a fixed-rate facility is that it lacked flexibility. And given the large take up of the TFF at a very low fixed rate, it incurred a material financial cost to the RBA when the economic recovery and pick-up in inflation turned out to be much stronger, and started much earlier, than had been expected.

    Indirect effects

    Many non-bank lenders were concerned that the TFF would undermine their competitive position vis-à-vis the banks. We had expected the TFF to help lower rates in wholesale funding markets to a degree. But this effect was much stronger and more pervasive than we had anticipated. The TFF helped to lower funding costs significantly for a range of lenders and corporations that had no access to TFF funds. It is hard to identify the specific contribution of the TFF to these lower funding costs separately from the effects of the wider policy package. But staff estimates suggest that these indirect effects caused yields on RMBS to be around 50 basis points lower than they would otherwise have been.

    Open lines of communication between the RBA, other government agencies and industry

    Another lesson is the importance of collaboration with other government agencies, and regular contact with industry participants. Collectively, this helped financial stability risks associated with the TFF to be well managed. This included monitoring and managing banks’ refinancing and liquidity needs well ahead of the repayment of their TFF loans, although that task could have been more challenging under less favourable market conditions.

    Similarly, for household and business borrowers, the RBA, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority and the banks’ close monitoring (and banks’ prudent lending standards) helped to reduce the risks associated with the rise in borrowers’ mortgage payments when their very low fixed rates rolled over to much higher variable rates. Only a very small share of borrowers struggled to meet the increase in their mortgage obligations when their low fixed rates expired.

    Importance of contingency planning, risk mangement and governance

    One of the important lessons is the value of planning ahead and being ready for a wide range of operational contingencies. We got the TFF up and running quickly in part by relying on existing, well-understood practices. But the speed with which the RBA designed and implemented the TFF also limited our ability to fully consider and manage the associated risks.

    • Forward planning can expand the options available, help us to better weigh up the costs and benefits of each, and prioritise any pre-emptive operational work. On this latter point, for example, floating-rate term-lending would have been challenging for both the RBA and the commercial banks to adopt in early 2020, because neither the RBA nor the banks were readily able to undertake floating-rate repos. The RBA and the banks have since upgraded systems and now have the capacity to easily undertake either floating- or fixed-rate repos.
    • Design features could have competition implications. While RBA staff liaised with the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission during the TFF’s setup, it would be helpful to consider competitive implications ahead of time for any future facilities.
    • Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Board has agreed to strengthen the way it considers risks, including by examining a wide range of economic scenarios when making policy decisions involving unconventional tools, and how to judge appropriate exit paths from such tools. In retrospect, a greater focus on potential upside economic outcomes could have led to a different calibration of the TFF, including deciding not to extend it in September 2020.

    Summing up

    The TFF met the objectives we set out for it at the start of the pandemic. It helped prevent dire economic outcomes at a time when the outlook was bleak and highly uncertain, and there was limited scope for further cuts to the cash rate. The TFF contributed to materially lower lending rates for households and businesses by reducing funding costs directly for banks, and indirectly for other institutions that borrow from wholesale funding markets. It kept credit flowing to households and businesses at a time when banks might have otherwise curtailed lending. In helping to prevent a much more severe economic downturn, the TFF also contributed to stronger public sector balance sheets than otherwise.

    Would the RBA use a term-lending tool again in the future? The Board would consider such a tool in extreme circumstances when the cash rate target had been lowered to the full extent possible. But it would do so only after consideration of a wide range of scenarios and the associated risks, and with a broader range of operational options than were available at the time of the pandemic.

    What’s next?

    In line with recommendations from the Review of the RBA, we will be publishing a framework for additional monetary policy tools next year. The broader set of lessons learned from the combined use of a range of unconventional monetary policies will be considered as part of that framework.

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Review of the Term Funding Facility

    Source: Reserve Bank of Australia

    The Bank today released the Reserve Bank Board’s Review of the Term Funding Facility. This review is one element of a broader set of reviews the Board has undertaken of the monetary policies it adopted in response to the pandemic. The purpose of the reviews is to be transparent and open about the experience and draw out lessons.

    Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets), will share some observations on the Term Funding Facility in his speech today at 11am (AEDT).

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Environmental, Social, and Governance Materiality in XBRL Disclosures and Its Performance Predictability: Evidence from Japan

    Source: Asia Development Bank

    The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific, while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. It assists its members and partners by providing loans, technical assistance, grants, and equity investments to promote social and economic development.

    Headquarters

    6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550, Metro Manila, Philippines

    MIL OSI Global Banks

  • MIL-OSI Reportage: BNZ cuts variable home loan rates by 0.50% following drop in OCR, customers to benefit from tomorrow

    Source: BNZ statements

    BNZ is making changes to its variable home loan rates, passing on the full OCR cut of 0.50%.

    BNZ General Manager Home Lending Products James Leydon says today’s decision by the Reserve Bank to cut to the official cash rate and BNZ’s subsequent interest rate reduction will be welcome news for many New Zealand households.

    “We are continually assessing our interest rates and looking for opportunities to pass on rate reductions to our customers. Customers will benefit from our latest variable rate change which is effective from tomorrow.

    “BNZ will continue to move quickly in response to changes in external factors, including the Official Cash Rate and wholesale interest rates, to ensure we’re passing rate changes on to our customers as quickly possible,” says Leydon.

    BNZ’s new variable home loan rates are effective from 10 October 2024
    Previous rate: 8.44% p.a.    New rate: 7.94% p.a.

    All home loans are subject to our lending criteria (including minimum equity requirements), terms and fees. An establishment fee of up to $150 may apply.

     

    The post BNZ cuts variable home loan rates by 0.50% following drop in OCR, customers to benefit from tomorrow appeared first on BNZ Debrief.

    MIL OSI Analysis

  • MIL-OSI USA: NC Health and Human Services Secretary Kody H. Kinsley Joins Governor Roy Cooper to Survey Damage and Meet with People Impacted by Hurricane Helene in Mitchell and Yancey Counties

    Source: US State of North Carolina

    Headline: NC Health and Human Services Secretary Kody H. Kinsley Joins Governor Roy Cooper to Survey Damage and Meet with People Impacted by Hurricane Helene in Mitchell and Yancey Counties

    NC Health and Human Services Secretary Kody H. Kinsley Joins Governor Roy Cooper to Survey Damage and Meet with People Impacted by Hurricane Helene in Mitchell and Yancey Counties
    stonizzo

    NC Health and Human Services Secretary Kody H. Kinsley toured Mitchell and Yancey counties with Governor Roy Cooper on Tuesday, surveying storm damage, meeting with community members and thanking first responders at the Burnsville and Spruce Pine fire departments. The trip concluded with a visit to Sibelco Quartz Mine, a top employer of Mitchell County with about 500 employees. While speaking with members of the media, the Secretary shared updates from the department’s work in collaboration with local, state and federal partners to get the needed care and resources to the hundreds of thousands of people impacted by Hurricane Helene.

    It is a top priority for the department to quickly get food, water and baby formula to impacted areas in Western North Carolina.

    • 30,000 gallons of water distributed to Mitchell County and nearly 25,000 gallons to Yancey County.
    • 95,000 meals ready to eat distributed in Mitchell County and 55,000 meals ready to eat distributed in Yancey County.
    • Eight pallets (between 120 – 144 cases of formula per pallet) of formula via the National Guard to 34 feeding sites across the impacted Western NC counties.
    • Formula shipped directly to multiple counties, including Mitchell and Yancey.
    • Diaper Bank of NC is making daily trips by trucks, mules and ATVs to deliver formula and infant supplies to 16 of the impacted counties in Western North Carolina.

    The department is working closely with federal partners to ensure people have access to food.

    • People across North Carolina can use their EBT cards to purchase hot foods.
    • People in 23 counties were automatically reimbursed for 70% of their monthly benefit to replace lost food. This is $24million in replacement benefits to more than 200,000 people in North Carolina.
    • Out of the 1,645 retailers that accept EBT cards in 25 counties in the west, at least 1,259 (77%) were able to run EBT transactions this past Saturday and Sunday.

    However, there are a large number of retailers in Mitchell and Yancey counties still not able to accept EBT cards, and we are working with partners to get more of those retailers back online.

    We are working to ensure communities have access to medical care, support and life-saving medication.

    • A Community Medical Care Site in Burnsville (Yancey County) is being set up with ambulances, medications and medical supplies on site.
    • 229 pharmacies are open in the impacted counites and EBCI Tribal area with federal disaster declaration.  Each county and the EBCI Tribal area have at least one pharmacy open and filling prescriptions.
    • All shelters have mental health counselors on site and are stocked with Naloxone for people in need of treatment for opioid overdose.
    • All 27 opioid treatment programs in the Western region are already re-open and folks can go to any one of them to get their treatment doses. They do not need to go to the one they usually go to.
    • NCDHHS is filling Benadryl and epinephrine injections requests through hospitals, emergency medical personnel and doctors who are seeing a significant number of people showing up with insect stings.
    • The department has been concerned about oxygen supplies and has worked with multiple vendors, federal agencies and neighboring states to source supplies. Two refill stations have been set up; one in Mocksville and another in Brevard.

    We understand the emotional and mental toll that a crisis like this can take and want to make sure people have access to mental health supports. We’ve ramped up staffing at the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline. People in immediate crisis or contemplating self harm should not hesitate to call. For everyone impacted by Hurricane Helene, the Disaster Distress Hotline is ready to take your call at 1-800-985-5990.

    Oct 8, 2024

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Banking and Finance – ASB lowers rates following OCR decrease

    Source: ASB

    ASB is dropping interest rates across personal, business and rural lending following today’s decision by the RBNZ to decrease the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 0.50%. The move comes hours after ASB lowered its fixed mortgage rates across several popular terms.

    ASB’s variable home loan rate will fall by 50 basis points from 8.39% to 7.89%, while the Orbit rate drops from 8.49% to 7.99%.  ASB’s Business and Rural Floating Base Rate is moving from 6.69% to 6.19%.

    ASB’s Executive General Manager Personal Banking Adam Boyd says “We’re pleased to be announcing substantial cuts to our floating home loans, as well as our business and rural rates, in response to the OCR decrease. The various rate reductions we’ve announced today will impact more than 120,000 customers and we hope this will take some pressure off our customers. We do expect this downward OCR trend to continue into 2025 which will provide further relief.”

    The OCR decrease is also being passed on to some of ASB’s savings rates. Savings On Call will move from 2.65% to 2.15% while ASB’s youth account, Headstart will shift from 4.75% to 4.15%.

     

     

    Home Loan* 

    Current Rates 

    New Rates 

    Rate Change 

    Housing Variable 

    8.39% 

    7.89% 

    – 0.50% 

    Orbit 

    8.49% 

    7.99% 

    – 0.50% 

    Back My Build 

    5.94% 

    5.44% 

    – 0.50% 

    Note – Back My Build applications are no longer open to new customers. 

     

    *These changes are effective from 17 October 2024 for new customers, and 24 October 2024 for current customers.

     

    Business Loan*

    Current Rates 

    New Rates 

    Rate Change 

    Business and Rural Floating Base Rate

    6.69%

     

    6.19%

     

    – 0.50%

    Business Base Rate

    13.52% 

    13.02% 

    – 0.50% 

    Rural Base Rate

    10.76% 

    10.26% 

    – 0.50% 

    Corporate Indicator Rate

    7.93% 

    7.43% 

    – 0.50% 

    Special Purpose Rate

    6.50%

    6.00%

    -0.50%

    * These changes are effective from 17 October 2024 for both new and existing customers.

     

    Savings 

    Band 

    Current Rates 

    New Rates 

    Rate Change 

    Savings On Call & ASB Cash Fund 

    All Balances 

    2.65% 

    2.15% 

    – 0.50% 

    Savings Plus 

    No Bonus 

    2.30% 

    1.70% 

    – 0.60% 

    Partial Bonus

    2.40%

    1.80%

    – 0.60%

     

    Full Bonus

    4.75%

    4.15%

    – 0.60%

    Headstart

    All Balances

    4.75%

    4.15%

    – 0.60% 

      *These changes are effective from 24 October 2024 for new and existing customers

     

    ASB has practical information for customers on the current interest rate environment available on its website (ref. https://www.asb.co.nz/home-loans-mortgages/preparing-for-rising-interest-rates.htmlas well support to help customers take control of their financial wellbeing and achieve their goals at its Financial Wellbeing Hubhttps://www.asb.co.nz/banking-with-asb/financial-wellbeing.html

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Economy – Reserve Bank of NZ reduces OCR to 4.75% – Monetary restraint reduced as inflation converges to target

    Source: Reserve Bank of New Zealand

    9 October 2024 – The Monetary Policy Committee today agreed to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.75 percent. The Committee assesses that annual consumer price inflation is within its 1 to 3 percent inflation target range and converging on the 2 percent midpoint.

    Economic activity in New Zealand is subdued, in part due to restrictive monetary policy. Business investment and consumer spending have been weak, and employment conditions continue to soften. Low productivity growth is also constraining activity.

    Some exporters have benefited from improved export prices. However, global economic growth remains below trend. The outlook for the United States and China is for growth to slow, while geopolitical tensions remain a significant headwind for world economic activity.

    The New Zealand economy is now in a position of excess capacity, encouraging price- and wage-setting to adjust to a low-inflation economy. Lower import prices have assisted the disinflation.

    The Committee agreed that it is appropriate to cut the OCR by 50 basis points to achieve and maintain low and stable inflation, while seeking to avoid unnecessary instability in output, employment, interest rates, and the exchange rate.

    Read the full statement and Record of meeting: https://govt.us20.list-manage.com/track/click?u=bd316aa7ee4f5679c56377819&id=96ff7a2970&e=f3c68946f8

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Orr’s multi-billion dollar mea culpa

    Source: ACT Party

    This afternoon, the Reserve Bank made another cut to the Official Cash Rate, from 5.25% down to 4.75%. ACT Leader David Seymour responds:

    “Today’s rate cut is great news. Lower interest rates mean real relief for Kiwis with mortgages, also relieving pressure on rents, and freeing up spending cash to quench thirsty local businesses.

    “However, on the Reserve Bank’s part, a 50 basis-point cut is a multi-billion dollar mea culpa, and the latest twist of a nauseating three-year fiscal and monetary roller coaster.

    “Today’s cut bookends a series of excesses. The too-easy money of COVID times spiked house prices and inflation. Then, interest rates shot up, house prices crashed back down. Today, Kiwis are finally getting off a three-year fiscal and monetary rollercoaster, feeling nauseous for their troubles.

    “Kiwis have done the responsible thing. Interest rates were also driven up by Labour’s COVID spending blowout. Households responded by making spending sacrifices – and changing the Government.

    “Our efforts are paying off. Together, our prudent spending has seen inflation ease back and given the Reserve Bank room to cut interest rates. If we stay the course, we should expect further relief in the coming months.

    “However, interest rates are still painfully high compared with pre-COVID times. ACT is determined to speed the path back to lower rates, lower living costs, and real economic growth.

    “We must build on our progress in cutting the waste and red tape from Wellington. That is how we honour the efforts of households working to secure a prosperous future for themselves.”

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Sony Unveils New Technologies to Advance Autonomous Mobile Robots

    Source: Sony

    Tokyo, Japan — Sony Group Corporation (Sony Group) today announced that five research papers on robotic mobility published by Sony Group and Sony Interactive Entertainment Inc. (SIE) have been accepted at the IEEE/RSJ International Conference on Intelligent Robots and Systems (IROS) 2024, one of the top international conferences in the fields of AI and robotics.

    MIL OSI Global Banks

  • MIL-OSI China: UN chief warns Lebanon is on verge of all-out war

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    This photo taken on Oct. 6, 2024 shows the destruction caused by an Israeli airstrike in Ghazieh, Lebanon. [Photo/Xinhua]

    Lebanon is “on the verge of an all-out war,” but there is still time to stop, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said on Tuesday.

    Speaking to reporters at the UN headquarters in New York, Guterres said the Middle East “is a powder keg with many parties holding the match.”

    “I have warned for months of the risks of the conflict spreading,” said the UN chief, adding that the situation in the occupied West Bank is “boiling over,” and attacks in Lebanon are threatening the entire region.

    He said that over the last few days, exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and others in Lebanon and the Israel Defense Forces have intensified across the Blue Line, in total disregard of Security Council resolutions 1701 and 1559.

    Guterres noted that large-scale Israeli strikes deep into Lebanon, including Beirut, have killed more than 2,000 people over the last year — and 1,500 in just the past two weeks alone, and attacks by Hezbollah and others south of the Blue Line have killed at least 49 people over the last year. In addition, Lebanese authorities report over 1 million people have been displaced in Lebanon, and 300,000 people have fled into Syria, while over 60,000 people remain displaced from northern Israel.

    “We are on the verge of an all-out war in Lebanon, with already devastating consequences. But there is still time to stop,” he said.

    “The sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries must be respected,” he stressed.

    The secretary-general commended the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, known as UNIFIL, for continuing “to carry out their mandates to the extent possible,” and called on all actors to ensure their safety and security.

    Guterres said the past year “has been a year of crises — humanitarian crisis, political crisis, diplomatic crisis, and a moral crisis,” and “the nightmare in Gaza is now entering an atrocious, abominable second year.”

    Over the last year, following the attacks by Hamas on Oct. 7, 2023, “Gaza has become ground zero to a level of human suffering that is hard to fathom,” with over 41,000 Palestinians reportedly killed, mostly women and children, and thousands more missing, he said.

    “Virtually the entire population has been displaced — and no part of Gaza has been spared,” said Guterres. “No place is safe in Gaza and no one is safe.”

    He underscored that international law is unambiguous: “civilians everywhere must be respected and protected, and their essential needs must be met, including through humanitarian assistance,” and strongly condemned all violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza.

    The UN chief reiterated the calls for an immediate ceasefire both in Gaza and Lebanon, the immediate and unconditional release of hostages, and immediate lifesaving aid to all those who desperately need it, and the calls for irreversible action for a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: More policies in pipeline to boost economy

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    As there have been more signs recently of a bull run in the A-share market, including soaring indexes and the stratospheric level of the trading volume, more economic stimulus policies as well as investors’ patience are equally important to further consolidate the upward trend of Chinese equities, said experts.

    Resuming after the National Day holiday, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index gained 4.59 percent to close at 3489.78 points on Tuesday, while the Shenzhen Component Index surged 9.17 percent. The technology-focused ChiNext in Shenzhen spiked 17.25 percent. Semiconductor, software development and securities companies led Tuesday’s rally.

    The combined trading value at the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses stood at 3.45 trillion yuan ($490 billion) on Tuesday, surpassing the previous record of 2.6 trillion yuan on Sept 30, the last trading day before the holiday.

    The A-share market’s rally on Tuesday came as officials of the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic regulator, said on the same day that the country will launch a batch of incremental policies to promote the sustained economic recovery and development.

    “China is confident of maintaining steady and healthy economic growth and achieve the full-year growth target,” said Zheng Shanjie, head of the NDRC, at a news conference on Tuesday, adding that more efforts will be made to strengthen the countercyclical adjustments for macroeconomic policies.

    The incremental policies released in late September attached greater importance to improving the quality of economic growth, supporting the real economy, facilitating the sound development of market entities, and coordinating high-quality development and high-level security, he said.

    Since Sept 24, the country’s top regulators have come up with supportive measures covering the financial sector, the property market, and support to the real economy, among others.

    The measures will be better used to spur more development potential and better achieve this year’s growth target, said Zheng.

    Meanwhile, continued efforts will be made to boost the capital market, according to Zheng. More effective and comprehensive measures will be introduced to vigorously guide the inflow of long-term capital. Blockages preventing the smoother entry of social security funds, as well as insurance and wealth management funds into the capital market should be removed.

    Public companies will be supported in mergers and acquisitions as well as restructuring. The reform of mutual funds should be advanced steadily, and efforts will be made to promulgate measures to protect individual investors, said Zheng, noting that these policies will be released at a faster pace.

    Liu Gang, managing director of China International Capital Corp, said the measures announced in September had exceeded market expectations and rekindled investors’ passion, emphasizing the financial measures’ support for the stock market.

    These have served as a driver for the recent bullish performance of the A-share market. But the market’s future performance will be determined by the pace and scale of successive policies, especially fiscal policies, Liu said.

    Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, said that fiscal and property market policies should better coordinate with the recently released monetary policies to stabilize investors’ confidence and expectations. Increasing the scale of this year’s budget deficit, accelerating the issuance of special bonds, granting subsidies to special groups of people and the issuance of additional treasury bonds can be possible options in terms of supportive fiscal measures, he said.

    China may adopt moderate fiscal stimulus of about 1.5 to 2 trillion yuan in the short term, which is also a reasonable level, said Wang Tao, chief China economist at UBS Investment Bank.

    Chen Guo, chief strategist at China Securities, said that the Chinese stock market’s recent bullish performance is supported by the revaluation of Chinese assets and recovered confidence. But a well-grounded overall bull run still needs time, especially the further improvement of economic fundamentals. Investors should have patience for the medium term, he said.

    Noting that the A-share market will enter a period of sustainable growth in the medium term, during which fluctuations cannot be avoided, Zhang Qiyao, chief strategist at Industrial Securities, said there is still room for a rise in the short run. Investors should watch for how long the bullish trend will last rather than focus on short-term peaks, he said.

    In a report released on Monday, analysts from Goldman Sachs raised 10 reasons to increase exposure to A-shares, including strong economic stimulus, upbeat investors’ mood, undervalued Chinese equities, companies’ improving earnings and a relaxed external environment.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: Turnover hits record high on China’s stock markets

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    This photo taken on Oct. 8, 2024 shows the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in Shenzhen, south China’s Guangdong Province. [Photo/Xinhua]

    The combined turnover of China’s Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses reached 3.45 trillion yuan (about 487.92 billion U.S. dollars) on Tuesday, surpassing the 2.59 trillion-yuan turnover recorded on Sept. 30 and hitting a new high.

    The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index went up 4.59 percent to close at 3,489.78 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed 9.17 percent higher at 11,495.1 points.

    Over 5,000 stocks ended higher, with the server-operating-system and semiconductor sectors leading the gains.

    The ChiNext Index, tracking China’s Nasdaq-style board of growth enterprises, gained 17.25 percent to close at 2,550.28 points.

    The market sentiment rose strongly on the Chinese government’s announcement of a mix of policy measures including monetary stimulus and property market support policies to galvanize the economy’s rebound.

    On Sept. 24, the People’s Bank of China announced a cut in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points for financial institutions. On Sept. 29, it announced a reduction in the mortgage rates for first homes, second homes and more by no lower than 30 basis points below the loan prime rate by the end of this month.

    On the same day, China’s Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also vowed support to stabilize the real estate market, by encouraging municipal governments, especially those in the first-tier cities, to leverage their decision-making powers to regulate the real estate market, and adjust policies restricting housing purchases based on local conditions.

    China is confident of achieving the full-year growth target, while mulling new supporting policies to sustain the steady and healthy economic growth, the country’s top economic planner told a press conference Tuesday.

    More efforts will be made to bolster the capital market, by vigorously guiding medium and long-term funds into the capital market, promoting mergers and acquisitions among listed companies, as well as mulling over and introducing measures to protect small and medium-sized investors, said Zheng Shanjie, head of the National Development and Reform Commission.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Money Market Operations as on October 08, 2024

    Source: Reserve Bank of India


    (Amount in ₹ crore, Rate in Per cent)

      Volume
    (One Leg)
    Weighted
    Average Rate
    Range
    A. Overnight Segment (I+II+III+IV) 524,659.73 6.24 2.00-7.30
         I. Call Money 9,875.51 6.42 5.10-6.50
         II. Triparty Repo 366,048.45 6.21 6.11-6.26
         III. Market Repo 147,457.77 6.29 2.00-6.45
         IV. Repo in Corporate Bond 1,278.00 6.46 6.39-7.30
    B. Term Segment      
         I. Notice Money** 103.00 6.26 5.95-6.75
         II. Term Money@@ 254.50 6.60-6.85
         III. Triparty Repo 267.00 6.35 6.35-6.37
         IV. Market Repo 206.06 6.60 6.60-6.60
         V. Repo in Corporate Bond 0.00
      Auction Date Tenor (Days) Maturity Date Amount Current Rate /
    Cut off Rate
    C. Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF), Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) & Standing Deposit Facility (SDF)
    I. Today’s Operations
    1. Fixed Rate          
    2. Variable Rate&          
      (I) Main Operation          
         (a) Repo          
         (b) Reverse Repo          
      (II) Fine Tuning Operations          
         (a) Repo          
         (b) Reverse Repo Tue, 08/10/2024 3 Fri, 11/10/2024 9,398.00 6.49
    3. MSF# Tue, 08/10/2024 1 Wed, 09/10/2024 5,308.00 6.75
    4. SDFΔ# Tue, 08/10/2024 1 Wed, 09/10/2024 88,739.00 6.25
    5. Net liquidity injected from today’s operations [injection (+)/absorption (-)]*       -92,829.00  
    II. Outstanding Operations
    1. Fixed Rate          
    2. Variable Rate&          
      (I) Main Operation          
         (a) Repo          
         (b) Reverse Repo Fri, 04/10/2024 14 Fri, 18/10/2024 44,275.00 6.49
      (II) Fine Tuning Operations          
         (a) Repo          
         (b) Reverse Repo Mon, 07/10/2024 4 Fri, 11/10/2024 36,825.00 6.49
    3. MSF#          
    4. SDFΔ#          
    5. On Tap Targeted Long Term Repo Operations Mon, 15/11/2021 1095 Thu, 14/11/2024 250.00 4.00
    Mon, 27/12/2021 1095 Thu, 26/12/2024 2,275.00 4.00
    6. Special Long-Term Repo Operations (SLTRO) for Small Finance Banks (SFBs)£ Mon, 15/11/2021 1095 Thu, 14/11/2024 105.00 4.00
    Mon, 22/11/2021 1095 Thu, 21/11/2024 100.00 4.00
    Mon, 29/11/2021 1095 Thu, 28/11/2024 305.00 4.00
    Mon, 13/12/2021 1095 Thu, 12/12/2024 150.00 4.00
    Mon, 20/12/2021 1095 Thu, 19/12/2024 100.00 4.00
    Mon, 27/12/2021 1095 Thu, 26/12/2024 255.00 4.00
    D. Standing Liquidity Facility (SLF) Availed from RBI$       6,300.46  
    E. Net liquidity injected from outstanding operations [injection (+)/absorption (-)]*     -71,259.54  
    F. Net liquidity injected (outstanding including today’s operations) [injection (+)/absorption (-)]*     -164,088.54  
    G. Cash Reserves Position of Scheduled Commercial Banks
         (i) Cash balances with RBI as on October 08, 2024 988,113.30  
         (ii) Average daily cash reserve requirement for the fortnight ending October 18, 2024 1,001,756.00  
    H. Government of India Surplus Cash Balance Reckoned for Auction as on¥ October 08, 2024 0.00  
    I. Net durable liquidity [surplus (+)/deficit (-)] as on September 20, 2024 418,318.00  
    @ Based on Reserve Bank of India (RBI) / Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL).
    – Not Applicable / No Transaction.
    ** Relates to uncollateralized transactions of 2 to 14 days tenor.
    @@ Relates to uncollateralized transactions of 15 days to one year tenor.
    $ Includes refinance facilities extended by RBI.
    & As per the Press Release No. 2019-2020/1900 dated February 06, 2020.
    Δ As per the Press Release No. 2022-2023/41 dated April 08, 2022.
    * Net liquidity is calculated as Repo+MSF+SLF-Reverse Repo-SDF.
    As per the Press Release No. 2020-2021/520 dated October 21, 2020, Press Release No. 2020-2021/763 dated December 11, 2020, Press Release No. 2020-2021/1057 dated February 05, 2021 and Press Release No. 2021-2022/695 dated August 13, 2021.
    ¥ As per the Press Release No. 2014-2015/1971 dated March 19, 2015.
    £ As per the Press Release No. 2021-2022/181 dated May 07, 2021 and Press Release No. 2021-2022/1023 dated October 11, 2021.
    # As per the Press Release No. 2023-2024/1548 dated December 27, 2023.
    Ajit Prasad            
    Deputy General Manager
    (Communications)    
    Press Release: 2024-2025/1251

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: OCR decision a welcome relief for working people

    Source: Council of Trade Unions – CTU

    NZCTU Te Kauae Kaimahi Economist Craig Renney said the decision by the Reserve Bank to cut the official cash rate by 50 basis points (0.5%) to 4.75% will be a welcome relief to workers facing higher unemployment and a struggling economy. “The Reserve Bank has been forced into a significant cut because the economy has failed to fire. Weak consumer spending, weak business investment, weak house prices, and a weakening labour market all put our economic recovery at risk.”

    “The Government is expecting the Reserve Bank to do all the work and support economic growth. Rather than supporting the economy and working people through difficult times, this Government has chosen to cut spending and investment, and is happy to see unemployment rise to levels not seen for a long time. These are choices, and the Government could invest now to deliver the growth we need for the future. Simply cutting interest rates returns to the economy of the past – and all the problems it already had”.

    “While many people will welcome lower interest rates, and some retailers will welcome the potential for additional spending, the rate cut is not a sign of strength in the economy but is a recognition of its weakness. We need to build a better economy,  one with good work and higher incomes. Nothing in the government’s plan for cuts delivers that.” Renney said.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Asian Impact Webinar 80: Statistical Data and Metadata eXchange for Enhanced Data Management

    Source: Asia Development Bank

    Video | 09 October 2024

    SHARE THIS PAGE

    The wealth of available data and new data producers entering the scene present opportunities and challenges for traditional statistical agencies. To remain relevant, official statisticians are increasingly required to innovate while maintaining data quality. The special supplement of Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2024 highlights the benefits of adopting the Statistical Data and Metadata eXchange (SDMX) standard, which provides a comprehensive framework for structuring, managing, and exchanging statistical data. Key findings from the report and experience from ADB’s hands-on capacity building programs demonstrate the tangible benefits of adopting SDMX in our region. A panel of experts from the National Statistical Office of Thailand and development partners will offer insights on the benefits of implementing SDMX for enhanced data accessibility.

    SHARE THIS PAGE

    The wealth of available data and new data producers entering the scene present opportunities and challenges for traditional statistical agencies. To remain relevant, official statisticians are increasingly required to innovate while maintaining data quality. The special supplement of Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2024 highlights the benefits of adopting the Statistical Data and Metadata eXchange (SDMX) standard, which provides a comprehensive framework for structuring, managing, and exchanging statistical data. Key findings from the report and experience from ADB’s hands-on capacity building programs demonstrate the tangible benefits of adopting SDMX in our region. A panel of experts from the National Statistical Office of Thailand and development partners will offer insights on the benefits of implementing SDMX for enhanced data accessibility.

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    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-Evening Report: How do you stop elephant herds from trashing crops and trees? Target sensitive nostrils with a ‘scent fence’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Patrick Finnerty, Postdoctoral research fellow in conservation, University of Sydney

    Elephant numbers are surging in southern Africa, with fewer natural predators, reduced hunting pressure and feeding by farmers and tourist operators.

    While this is good for elephants, it’s making life harder for humans who live near them. These huge herbivores can raid crops and destroy large trees in national parks with impunity, causing problems for farmers and land managers alike.

    Traditional solutions aren’t ideal. Culling is controversial, and building fences strong enough to deter elephants is very expensive.

    But there’s another option: a fence made of scent. We have explored how specific plant scents can stop wallabies from eating native seedlings. The technique works on Australian herbivores. Would it work for southern Africa’s much larger elephants?

    Our new research put this idea to the test. We mimicked the scent of a shrub known as common guarri (Euclea undulata), which elephants avoid eating, and built a Y-shaped maze for elephants. We placed the scent on one side of the Y and left the other side scent-free.

    The results were clear – our elephants voted with their trunks and avoided the stinky side. This suggests scent could play a useful role in fending off hungry pachyderms.

    How can elephants be a problem?

    The world has three species of elephant. The small Asian elephant is endangered while the even smaller African forest elephant, which lives in rainforests in West Africa and the Congo Basin, is critically endangered.

    But the largest species, the African savannah elephant, is bouncing back in southern Africa from decades of poaching and habitat loss.

    This is great on a conservation front. But it brings fresh problems. As elephant herds expand, they increasingly come into conflict with people – especially farmers. Losing a year’s crop to hungry elephants is devastating. When farmers try to stop them, the elephants can attack and even kill.

    In large numbers, elephants can damage the natural environment like other herbivores – but even more so. In South Africa’s Kruger National Park and other wild places, their enormous appetites have reshaped whole plant communities. The plants elephants like disappear, while those they don’t spread. Elephants also destroy large trees and prevent the growth of new ones.

    Oranges unable to be sold by Zimbabwean farmers are dumped, which attracts elephants and fuels population growth.

    As elephant numbers grow, desperate farmers and land managers have scrambled for solutions. Killing problem elephants has been a common fix. But the practice now faces strong public opposition. Fencing is costly and usually impractical for lower-income farming areas. Other deterrents, such as using flashing lights and annoying sounds to scare off the pachyderms have had mixed success.

    Curiously, elephants are scared stiff of bees. This knowledge has been used effectively by Kenyan farmers, who install beehives around their fields. Studies have shown the technique deters up to 80% of elephants. This method has limits, though, as there are only so many bees an area can sustain and maintaining hives takes work.

    The scent defence

    To deter an elephant, it helps to think like an elephant. We’ve long known carnivores rely heavily on scent to find prey. But scent is very important to herbivores too, as our team has explored. Herbivores rely on smell to tell them which plants to eat and which to avoid.

    In Australia, we have used this knowledge to artificially replicate the scent of boronia pinnata, a flowering shrub which swamp wallabies avoid. These wallabies are the local native equivalent of deer in their eating habits – they eat many different plants, including tree seedlings land managers would rather they did not.
    When we put vials of boronia scent next to vulnerable native seedlings in Sydney’s Ku-ring-gai Chase National Park, we found these seedlings were 20 times less likely to be found and eaten by pesky wallabies.

    Researchers have found similar scent “misinformation” tactics substantially reduced how many eggs from threatened birds were eaten by invasive predators such as ferrets, cats and hedgehogs in New Zealand, while others have found it can reduce losses of wheat grain to house mice in Australia.

    But would this approach work on elephants? We were hopeful. We know elephants can smell water from afar. Better still, elephants have the strongest sense of smell of any land animal.

    We went to South Africa to test it out.

    Our entire research team, including humans and elephants.
    Patrick Finnerty, CC BY-NC-ND

    A proof of concept

    We set up our experiment at the Adventures with Elephants tourism and research centre north of Johannesburg, which is home to six semi-tame elephants.

    Here, we built a large maze shaped like a Y to let us test our idea in a controlled and safe environment. This is essential when working with temperamental animals weighing up to six tonnes.

    From almost ten meters away, elephants had to choose which path through the Y to follow using only their sense of smell. Plants and odour vials were hidden down each arm of the maze, ensuring the animals were not using vision to choose. Both exits to the maze contained lots of leaves and stems of the jacket plum (pappea capensis), a tree elephants love to eat. On one side of the Y, we placed a single glass vial containing just 1 millilitre of a mixture mimicking the smell of common guarri.

    It took just 1 ml of this scent to nudge elephants to go elsewhere.
    Patrick Finnerty

    The results were exciting. Time and time again, the elephants avoided the side where the artificial odour was present.

    An elephant stands at the top of the Y maze, scents the unpleasant plant on the right arm, and chooses to walk down the left arm.

    Scaling up

    Our results suggest using scent could provide a practical way we could avoid human-elephant conflicts and help people protect crops and national parks at a larger scale.

    Combining artificial odours with existing control measures such as fencing or beehives could offer more accessible and cost-effective methods to live alongside elephants.

    What’s next? We aim to scale up this research in the hope of creating a practical, versatile and cheap tool which people in elephant territory can use to protect crops, trees, and houses from these giant herbivores.

    We acknowledge our research co-authors, Clare McArthur and Peter Banks (University of Sydney) Adrian Shrader (University of Pretoria) and Melissa Schmitt (University of North Dakota), and Paul Finnerty for help designing and constructing the maze. We also thank Sean Hensman and the staff at Adventures With Elephants, South Africa, for allowing us to conduct our study on their premises.

    Patrick Finnerty does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How do you stop elephant herds from trashing crops and trees? Target sensitive nostrils with a ‘scent fence’ – https://theconversation.com/how-do-you-stop-elephant-herds-from-trashing-crops-and-trees-target-sensitive-nostrils-with-a-scent-fence-239593

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Business – OCR Drop Welcomed by Canterbury Businesses

    Source: Business Canterbury

    Canterbury businesses will welcome today’s further drop in the OCR following the Reserve Bank’s announcement to cut the OCR by 50 basis points to 4.75%. 
    Business Canterbury Chief Executive Leeann Watson says, “today’s further drop will provide a further boost to business confidence at a time when businesses continue to face increased financial pressure. We hope today’s announcement will continue to increase consumer confidence and demand, which have been at an all-time low.”
    “Since February 2023, when inflation and interest rates outpaced labour market constraints, cost pressures have consistently taken the number one spot in business concerns, according to Business Canterbury’s quarterly survey of over 450 businesses in Canterbury.”
    “Following the previous OCR announcement in August, we saw quite a significant improvement in expectations for both the Canterbury economy and individual business performance, a big turnaround from what we saw in the results from May.”
    “This optimism indicates that recent drops in inflation and interest rates are positively influencing the business operating environment, even as many companies continue to navigate the challenges of what has felt like an elastic band economy over the past few years.”
    “We hope to see further improvement in consumer confidence which saw a lift in September, although still net pessimistic, with spending remaining subdued in many areas. Over the three months to August, retail spending in Canterbury declined by just over 1% from the same time last year, a reduction of about $26 million, which businesses continue to be concerned about. We hope today’s further reduction will see further improvements in consumer confidence to help boost sales for businesses, off the back of an extremely challenging period.”
    “Today’s announcement is another positive step in encouraging an environment that supports economic activity, enabling businesses to concentrate on productivity, innovation, and growth.”
    “Canterbury businesses have shown incredible resilience over the past four to five years, and I’m confident that they will continue to thrive as we move toward a more optimistic economic future.” 
    About Business Canterbury
    Business Canterbury, formerly Canterbury Employers’ Chamber of Commerce, is the largest business support agency in the South Island and advocates on behalf of its members for an environment more favourable to innovation, productivity and sustainable growth.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Regulatory barriers threaten transition towards circular economy, ICC report warns

    Source: International Chamber of Commerce

    Headline: Regulatory barriers threaten transition towards circular economy, ICC report warns

    Published in partnership with EY, the report – “Putting the circular economy into motion: From barriers to opportunities” – highlights the significant obstacles companies encounter when transitioning to circular business models that could otherwise deliver significant environmental, reputational and financial gains.

    The circular economy is intended to maximise resource efficiency and minimise environmental impact by promoting continuous use, reuse and recycling of materials and products. But the study concludes that existing regulatory systems are not fit for purpose in enabling such approaches at scale – largely as a result of significant inconsistencies in national environmental laws and regulations that remain based on linear models of production and consumption.  

    Regulatory barriers highlighted by the report include:

    • Complex and fragmented import and export processes for secondary materials which create significant compliance and operational costs.
    • Lack of a common international standard for “remanufactured” products.
    • Customs systems that do not accommodate reverse logistics.
    • No recognition of circular approaches under the 1989 Basel Convention on hazardous waste.  

    ICC Secretary General John W.H. Denton AO said: “It’s certainly true that the shift to circular business models has been slower than many governments anticipated a decade ago. But that’s not surprising when you see that legacy regulations tilt the playing field against circularity – in effect, entrenching the dominance of the old model of extract, produce, consume and discard.

    “We hope that our report can serve as a roadmap for clear and coordinated regulatory change – both at the domestic and international level – to put the circular economy firmly into motion. Reforming the Basel Convention to take into account the evolution of circular solutions and advances in technology is, in our view, an essential starting point for this effort.”

    Based on an extensive series of interviews with businesses across a range of industries, the study also highlights a range of challenges companies face when looking to deploy circular approaches – from infrastructure gaps through to high upfront investment needs. It also pinpoints the need for a concerted effort to shift consumer perceptions and behaviour – including prevailing misconceptions about the quality of remanufactured, refurbished or recycled goods and materials.

    Mark Weick, Managing Director, Climate Change and Sustainability Services at EY said: “Circular economy is a systematic approach that requires collaboration from all stakeholders across the value chain within an enabling regulatory framework. Concerted cooperation will be pivotal to drive meaningful impact to reduce climate change effects.”

    The report concludes with a number of broad recommendations to incentivize the uptake of circular business models – starting with the facilitation of cross-border trade in secondary materials.

    Pär Larshans, Director of Sustainability, Ragn-Sells Group, and Co-Chair of ICC’s Working Group on Circular Economy added: “The transition to a circular economy is much needed if we want to reach the ambitions set in the Paris Agreement, and to ensure that humanity reduces the risk of overshooting any of the planetary boundaries. With this report, ICC focuses on the need for circular transitions to move away from a minimised waste focus to a resource efficiency focus where a decontamination step is included to enable free trade of recycled materials.”

    Learn more on the circular economy and download the full report.

    MIL OSI Global Banks

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Secretary-General of ASEAN attends the Plenary Session of the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, Lao PDR

    Source: ASEAN – Association of SouthEast Asian Nations

    Secretary-General of ASEAN, Dr. Kao Kim Hourn, attended the Plenary Session of the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summit held at the National Convention Center in Vientiane, Lao PDR today. SG Dr. Kao reported on the progress of ASEAN Community-building in 2024 to the ASEAN Leaders and highlighted the key deliverables of Lao PDR’s ASEAN Chairmanship under the theme “Enhancing Connectivity and Resilience”.

    The post Secretary-General of ASEAN attends the Plenary Session of the 44th and 45th ASEAN Summit in Vientiane, Lao PDR appeared first on ASEAN Main Portal.

    MIL OSI Global Banks

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Data residency for machine learning processing to be made available in the UK

    Source: Google

    There’s been a remarkable global surge in interest for Google Cloud’s generative AI, particularly here in the UK. However, we recognize that certain industries, clients, and specific use cases necessitate stricter data residency within their own regions to fully harness the potential of these tools.

    In response to this demand, we’re thrilled to announce at the Google Cloud Next London Summit, that starting next month we will expand our data residency commitment: Customers will be able to conduct machine learning processing for Gemini 1.5 Flash within the UK.

    New data residency offerings

    Last year, we announced that organizations in the UK using Google Cloud’s generative AI capabilities can choose to store their data at-rest in the UK. This includes Generative AI on Vertex AI – Codey and Imagen models, as well as Text Embeddings and Multimodal Embeddings APIs.

    We’re pleased to announce that UK organizations spanning all sectors, including the public sector, will have the option to both store their data at-rest and conduct machine learning processing for our cutting-edge large language model, Gemini 1.5 Flash, entirely within the UK.

    Our pledges on data residency:

    • Your data stays put: We guarantee your data will only reside in the exact locations you designate, as clearly outlined in our Cloud Locations Page and Service Specific Terms.
    • Machine learning processing happens locally: All machine learning processing of your data, including Gemini inference and deployment of any other ML models leading up to output generation, will occur within the same specific region or multi-region where your data is stored.

    To delve deeper

    • Explore Google Cloud’s data residency offerings here.
    • Gain insights into our AI development process through our white paper on our Approach to AI Governance here.
    • Discover more about our AI platform here.

    MIL OSI Global Banks

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Joachim Nagel: Remarks at the “Bell ringing ceremony”

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Check against delivery 

    Ladies and gentlemen,

    It is a great pleasure to be here today to celebrate the European Commission joining the European repo market at Deutsche Börse/EUREX. This is a significant milestone, and I am happy to share this moment with all of you.

    The Bundesbank will act as a General Clearing Member for the Commission. Having provided similar services to several other public entities for many years, the Bundesbank brings experience to the table. With this robust track record, we are happy to provide our services to the Commission. I can assure you that you are in good hands.

    EUREX already supports a wide range of repo transactions and is a major player in Europe’s financial landscape. Since 2021, the Commission has been issuing bonds under the temporary NextGenerationEU programme, and this will continue until 2028. In total, bonds worth approximately €800 billion will ultimately be issued. The EU is therefore set to become an important player in the euro bond market for some time to come. The repo facility introduced today will significantly enhance liquidity in the secondary market for these bonds.

    Ladies and gentlemen, today’s event not only highlights the attractiveness of Frankfurt as a financial hub, it also helps strengthen it further. This is particularly important as much investment will be needed in the areas of digitalisation and decarbonisation in the future. Of course, bank loans will likely continue to play a vital role in financing these investments. But there is also substantial potential for more financing through capital markets.

    As many of you probably already know, I have long been an advocate of greater integration of European capital markets. I firmly believe that advancing the Capital Markets Union is essential, particularly in the areas of securitisation, insolvency laws, and venture capital.

    A transparent and high-quality securitisation market would enable banks to transfer parts of their loan portfolios to the capital market. This would relieve their balance sheets and create scope for additional loans. An effective and harmonised insolvency regime would facilitate cross-border investment and the reallocation of scarce resources to innovative firms striving to build a digital and carbon-neutral future. Finally, better access to venture capital would help young European firms turn innovative ideas into marketable products.

    For now, I look forward to implementing our newly established partnership and to the benefits it will bring to our financial system.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Alessandra Perrazzelli: Technology and regulation – bridging the gap in the collective interest

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Ladies and Gentlemen, good morning.

    I am delighted to be here today at the Milan Fintech Summit. Since its first edition – four years ago – this summit has provided a valuable opportunity to strengthen the dialogue among stakeholders and market participants, bringing together financial institutions, fintech companies, academics, and experts with different backgrounds.

    Innovative technology affects the entire financial system, globally and domestically [Slide 1]. Fintech reshapes traditional business models, opening the door to newcomers, developing new services, and restructuring value chains. The impressive, fast, and interrelated changes push policy makers and supervisors to run in-depth analyses to update the regulatory landscape and the supervisory toolbox.

    Global fintech investments increased significantly from 2010 to 2019, peaking at around 217 billion U.S. dollars [Slide 2]. In 2020 – in the midst of the pandemic – investments fell by more than 40 per cent to 124 billion U.S. dollars, eventually rebounding to over 229 billion U.S. dollars in 2021. In the last two years, however, global fintech investments have entered a downward trend, owing to the uncertain macroeconomic situation and to the heightened geopolitical risks that, unfortunately, we are living through.

    Fintech applications are widely implemented in the financial sector, especially in the payments field. The digital evolution has led to lower research costs, more efficient services, higher security levels, and the use of large amounts of data to analyse customer behaviour and to customize the products and services being offered.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Rosanna Costa: Welcoming remarks – FSB RCG Americas meeting

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Welcoming words

    Good afternoon, and welcome to Santiago. It is my great pleasure to host this year’s meeting of the FSB Regional Consultative Group for the Americas, organized jointly by the Financial Stability Board, the Financial Markets Commission of Chile and the Central Bank of Chile. Let me extend a warm welcome to our distinguished guests, esteemed colleagues, and participants. We are honored by your presence here today, particularly as we gather together to address some of the most pressing challenges and latest developments in the realms of financial stability, market development and regulatory coordination.

    Allow me to especially acknowledge the presence of Mr. Klaas Knot, Chair of the Financial Stability Board and Tiff Macklem and Kenneth Baker, Co-Chairs of the Regional Consultative Group for the Americas, whose work and commitment have contributed greatly to shaping our global and regional efforts aimed at enhancing financial stability.

    I am also glad to extend a warm welcome to Mr. Rodrigo Coelho, Head of Policy Benchmarking of the Financial Stability Institute, who will be our keynote speaker today, whose expertise and perspective I am sure will provide us with key concepts and insights to foster today’s discussions.

    Lastly, let me express my sincere gratitude to the organizing teams of the Secretariat of the Financial Stability Board, the Financial Markets Commission, and our team in the Central 2 Bank of Chile, for their hard work and dedication that have been instrumental in making this event possible. 

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Elizabeth McCaul: Beyond the spotlight – using peripheral vision for better supervision

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Introduction

    Thank you very much for inviting me to today’s conference, it is a pleasure to be here.

    The former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt used to say “People with visions should go to the doctor”. This sounds concerning to a supervisor. After all, the word “supervision” is made up of the prefix “super”, which means “over” or “above”, and “vision”. But what exactly is vision? To find out, I followed Helmut Schmidt’s advice and went to the doctor.

    What I learnt is that eye doctors distinguish between central vision, fringe vision and peripheral vision.

    Central vision is the very centre of the visual field. It delivers sharp, detailed pictures, allowing us to focus on objects straight ahead. In the banking world, these are the issues directly in front of us: capital, asset quality, profitability and key risk categories including climate-and environmental risks or cyber risk etc.

    Fringe vision refers to the area right outside the central vision, around 30 to 60 degrees of the visual field, where visual clarity and detail recognition start to decrease. Fringe vision helps us to absorb information faster when we read as our brains anticipate the next words and letters, making the process faster and smoother. Translating this to banking, this would be like noticing changes in the macroeconomic environment, rising geopolitical tensions, and their impact on banks’ business models and risk profiles.

    Finally, peripheral vision is everything that occurs outside the very centre of our gaze, beyond 60 degrees. It encompasses everything that can be seen to the sides, providing spatial awareness which helps with navigation and balance. Improving peripheral vision is crucial for athletes as it increases reaction speed, improves anticipation and reduces the risk of injury. In banking, beyond the centre of our gaze are the structural transformations of our societies and economies: the acceleration of technological progress, including the rise of generative artificial intelligence or the impact of social media on depositor behaviour; the reconfiguration of the financial value chain; new entrants in the competitive landscape or the growing share of non-bank financial institutions.

    Good supervision and good risk management in banks require central, fringe and peripheral vision. Good peripheral vision sets apart decent athletes from great ones, allowing them to anticipate movements and respond swiftly to changes on the field. And the same holds true for banking supervisors: while central vision and fringe vision are crucial in focusing on immediate risks, it is the ability to maintain a broad, strategic view – our “peripheral vision” – that ensures truly effective supervision. This broader perspective enables us to detect emerging risks in the wider financial system, anticipate potential disruptions and respond proactively.

    In my remarks today, I will share our assessment of the current risk landscape, describing what we see in our central, fringe and peripheral vision.

    Central vision

    Let me start with the central vision of the state of the European banking system.

    In recent years, Europe’s banking sector has shown resilience in the face of unforeseen challenges: the pandemic, the energy supply shock following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a period of high inflation.

    This resilience is reflected in the numbers: in 2015, the average ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) for significant banks in the banking union was 7.5%, at a time when some banking systems had ratios close to 50%. At the end of the second quarter of this year, this ratio had decreased to 2.3%, driven mainly by the reduction of NPLs in high-NPL banks. Similarly, the Common Equity Tier 1 ratio for significant banks has risen from 12.7% in 2015 to 15.8% today. Bank profitability has considerably increased in recent quarters, benefiting from higher interest rates, and return on equity now stands at 10.1%.

    On the one hand, this resilience is a result of the strengthened supervisory and regulatory framework put in place after the global financial crisis and the related improvements in banks’ risk management. On the other hand, looking particularly at recent years, banks have also benefited from policy support which has helped shield the real economy from adverse shocks. For example, during the pandemic, comprehensive fiscal support measures contained corporate insolvencies and the associated loan losses. While bank profitability and valuations have recently improved due to higher interest rates, the effects of this supporting factor are gradually diminishing.

    Turning to liquidity, banks continue to show strong positions despite an ongoing reduction in excess liquidity. Access to both retail and wholesale funding remains robust, and the higher-than-expected stickiness of deposits has contributed to a stable funding environment. Nevertheless, banks should remain cautious and ensure that their liquidity and funding strategies are resilient to potential market disruptions. They need to maintain robust asset and liability management frameworks to enhance their resilience to both liquidity and funding risks as well as interest rate risk in the banking book. I will return to this topic later again.

    Finally, our supervisory priorities also include banks’ capabilities to manage climate- and environmental risks and cyber risk. Climate change can no longer be regarded only as a long-term or emerging risk, which is why banks need to address the challenges and grasp the opportunities of climate transition and adaptation. With regard to cyber risk, we have recently concluded a cyber resilience stress test to assess how banks would respond to and recover from a severe but plausible cybersecurity incident. While cyber risk has become a key risk for the banking sector, geopolitical tensions have further increased the threat of cyber-attacks.

    So, we may ask: how much of this resilience is structural, how much is cyclical? To get a more accurate picture of the current risk landscape, we need to slightly widen our gaze.

    Fringe vision

    This brings me to the fringe vision, looking at the broader macroeconomic environment.

    While the macro-financial environment has recently been improving as inflation decreases, near-term growth remains weak and subject to high uncertainty. Recent data indicate a gradual recovery in real GDP growth, primarily driven by the services sector, while industrial activity continues to face headwinds.

    Credit risk has only partially materialised so far, supported by strong fundamentals of households and corporates. Still, NPLs are slowly increasing, particularly in the commercial real estate (CRE) and small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) sectors. While the macroeconomic outlook signals a lower immediate risk of recession, asset quality in riskier segments is slowly deteriorating as the higher interest rate environment experienced over the last two years after a decade of ‘low for long’ weighs and may affect the debt servicing capacity of borrowers. In this context, we are conducting targeted reviews on banks’ portfolios that demonstrate more sensitivity to the current macro-financial environment. This includes targeted reviews of SME portfolios and following up on the findings from residential real estate and CRE portfolio reviews as well as from deep dives on forbearance and unlikely-to-pay policies. Banks also need to remediate persistent shortcomings in their IFRS 9 frameworks and maintain an adequate level of provisions. In this context, we are continuing IFRS 9 targeted reviews focusing on, among other things, the use of overlays and coverage of novel risks.

    The current market risk environment is characterised by high risk appetite and benign risk pricing, which has prevailed in financial markets over the past year. This environment is susceptible to sudden shifts in market sentiment and episodes of high volatility, as seen in the recent global financial market sell-off. Although markets showed substantial resilience during the spike in volatility in August, banks should be ready for and able to cope with further episodes of sharp repricing and high volatility. The implementation of the recently postponed market risk part of the Basel III reform, the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book, will strengthen capital requirements for banks and help boost their resilience.

    Rising geopolitical tensions

    Also within the broader macro-environment, the evolving geopolitical risk landscape has been on our radar for some time, considering the events of the past two and a half years, namely Russia’s war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East.

    While the direct impact of recent geopolitical events on the banking sector has been contained so far and the immediate threats are limited, we need to remain attentive and systematically assess the possible ramifications for banks. Geopolitical shocks are cross-cutting and could have direct and indirect effects on banks’ financial and non-financial risks.

    For example, geopolitical shocks can exacerbate governance, operational and business model risks they lead to more sanctions or increased cyberattacks. We have seen a clear increase in the number of significant cyber incidents in 2023 and 2024, driven by attacks on service providers (typically ransomware) and by distributed denial-of-service attacks on banks. There can also be material consequences for banks’ credit, market, liquidity, funding and profitability risks, especially in cases where banks have large-scale direct or indirect balance sheet exposures to the countries, sectors, supply chains or firms and households that may be adversely affected by a geopolitical shock.

    Moreover, geopolitical events can also have wider second-round effects that could have negative knock-on consequences for the banking sector. For instance, downside risks to growth from slower economic activity or worsened sentiment as well as upward pressure on inflation related to supply or price shocks in energy or broader commodity markets can disrupt banks’ operating environment. Escalating geopolitical tensions might also result in heightened financial market volatility, triggering further episodes of asset price corrections.

    The recent increase in geopolitical tensions calls for heightened scrutiny and robust risk management frameworks in banks, so that supervisors and banks can properly assess potential risks in the evolving geopolitical environment and proactively mitigate them. As Supervisory Board Chair Claudia Buch said recently1, strengthening resilience to geopolitical shocks is a key priority for ECB Banking Supervision, and we will focus on a range of risk factors, from governance and risk management to capital planning, credit risk and operational resilience.

    Peripheral vision

    And now, let us exercise our athletic capabilities, and use our peripheral vision to look at the wider risk landscape.

    Structural trends, such as the reconfiguration of the financial value chain, the impact of digitalisation and social media on liquidity, and the rise of non-bank financial institutions, are reshaping the environment in which banks operate.

    Reconfiguration of the financial value chain

    The emergence of big tech companies and other non-banking firms offering financial services is leading to a major restructuring in the market, changing the risk landscape, blurring traditional industry lines and challenging conventional regulatory boundaries.

    Companies whose primary business is technology are entering the financial sector through e-commerce and payment platforms and subsequently expanding into retail credit, mortgage lending or crypto services. These firms may explore alternative, less regulated lending forms like crypto lending using peer-to-peer platforms, ultimately mimicking the economic functions of banks without being subject to the same comprehensive oversight.

    We need to expand our tools and surveillance to prevent gaps in oversight and ensure they are robust and versatile enough to oversee disintermediated, increasingly interconnected and possibly distributed-ledger-based business models. We must adapt the regulation and oversight of such firms, especially for entities that are mainly active in non-financial services, to gain a thorough understanding of the financial activities of large non-bank groups across jurisdictions and sectors. Let me underscore that we should avoid a regulatory “race to the bottom” driven by a narrow mission of prioritising innovation and attracting large firms, which may not contribute to the good of society.

    Liquidity risk supervision post-March 2023

    Earlier, I asked how much of banks’ resilience is structural and how much is cyclical. Let us look at the banking turmoil of March 2023 to better understand how banks weathered this crisis and identify what lessons we have learnt with regard to liquidity and funding.

    First, the events were a reminder to banks of the changing and increasingly volatile nature of depositor behaviour. Social media can play a pivotal role in encouraging large numbers of customers to withdraw deposits. In the case of Silicon Valley Bank, this behaviour was exacerbated by a highly networked and concentrated depositor base. Moreover, the advent of online banking, digitalisation, and the influence of non-bank competitors may also have a significant impact on depositor behaviour, affecting the stability of liquidity and funding sources. Therefore, banks must adapt their approaches so that they can monitor these risks more closely and understand the channels through which deposits are collected.

    We recently conducted a targeted review on the diversification of funding sources and the adequacy of funding plans. Our findings indicate a concerning heterogeneity in the adverse scenarios considered by significant banks. Often, these scenarios are only described at a high level, are not conservative, or only “stress” individual balance sheet items. The absence of comprehensive and credible underlying assumptions in these adverse scenarios reduces the reliability of funding plans and increases execution risk.

    The events of March 2023 also underscored the importance of banks’ readiness to swiftly implement contingency and recovery measures. Another recent targeted review focused on collateral mobilisation. It found that banks have the operational capacity to tap central bank liquidity facilities. However, banks’ assumptions about the time needed to monetise the assets appear rather optimistic in some cases, especially under stressed conditions. This optimism could hinder banks’ ability to cover any unexpected outflows in a timely and sufficient manner.

    Furthermore, banks need to adopt a more holistic and comprehensive cross-risk analysis of potential vulnerabilities. The turmoil demonstrated how quickly deficiencies in business models and shortcomings in the management of interest rate risk in the banking book (IRRBB) can escalate into liquidity issues. It is essential to assess spillover effects and understand how shortcomings in one area can amplify risks in another.

    From a regulatory perspective, the events of spring 2023, along with past crises, have shown that compliance with the liquidity coverage ratio (LCR) and the net stable funding ratio (NSFR) may not provide sufficient assurance about a bank’s liquidity and funding situation. For instance, an LCR above 100% might still hide significant cliff risks just beyond the 30-day horizon. Two banks with identical LCRs might have vastly different liquidity profiles owing to concentration risks not captured by the ratio.

    However, it is important to remember that the LCR and the NSFR do not – and are not intended to – prevent all liquidity crises. They are not designed to address every residual risk, which should be managed on a case-by-case basis under Pillar 2. So while we support a review of specific aspects of the current calibration of these metrics, we are cautious about drastic changes.

    Instead, I would focus on the supervisory follow-up. And I can draw four main lessons with regard to the supervision of liquidity risk.

    First, supervisors, like banks, need to carry out holistic cross-risk analysis. Instead of looking at risks in isolation, we need to broaden our gaze and also focus on the interplay between IRRBB, liquidity risk management and governance arrangements.

    Second, we need increased supervisory scrutiny of banks’ modelling of non-maturity deposits, as these models are sometimes not based on proper economic evidence.

    Third, it is essential that supervisors consider supplementary liquidity and funding risk indicators, such as survival period or concentration metrics, to capture residual risks not addressed by the LCR or the NSFR. In European banking supervision we have successfully used maturity ladder reporting to calculate survival periods, which provides a more comprehensive analysis beyond the fixed calibration of the LCR and the NSFR.

    Finally, the March 2023 turmoil demonstrated the need for timely and up-to-date information on liquidity and funding. We therefore introduced weekly data collections for liquidity risks in September 2023. This has been instrumental in identifying changes and detecting structural shifts across the banking system.

    Growth of non-bank financial institutions

    Another issue we detect in our peripheral vision is the staggering growth of the non-bank financial institution (NBFI) sector. In the euro area, the sector has more than doubled in size, from €15 trillion in 2008 to €32 trillion in 2024. Globally, the numbers are even more worrying, with the sector growing from €87 trillion in 2008 to €200 trillion in 2022.

    The private credit market is of particular concern. It accounts for €1.6 trillion of the global market and has also seen significant growth recently. The European private credit market has grown by 29% in the last three years but is still much smaller than the market in the United States, which is where investors and asset managers are often based. The end investors are pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and insurance firms, but banks play a significant role in leveraging and providing bridge loans at various levels to credit funds. We have recently completed a deep dive on the topic and found that banks are not able to properly identify the detailed nature and levels of their full exposure to private credit funds. Therefore, concentration risk could be significant.

    We know that risk from the NBFI sector can materialise through various channels. One of them is through the correlation of exposures, especially given the growth in private credit and equity markets. We supervisors do not have a full picture of the level of exposure and correlations between NBFI balance sheets and bank lending arrangements, lines of credit or derivatives to and from NBFIs.

    To make the market less opaque and more visible within even our fringe and central line of sight, we should further harmonise, enhance and expand reporting requirements. We need to make information sharing between authorities easier at global level to provide the visibility we need to play with more agility on the field.

    Conclusion

    Earlier, I asked how much of the banking system’s resilience is cyclical and how much is structural. I think it is safe to say that the European banking system is in better shape today than it was ten years ago. This won’t surprise anyone in this room. Stronger capital and liquidity positions and healthier balance sheets are objective factors contributing to the resilience of the system.

    Still, I am a supervisor, so I am paid to worry. If my career has taught me anything, it’s that accidents are more likely to happen when people get complacent. This is why I am calling on you to use your full vision – not only your central and fringe vision, but your peripheral vision too. Crises often emerge from the shadows, and it’s the overlooked risks that pose the greatest danger.

    Let me conclude with another lesson that I have learnt during my career. It’s a quote from Mark Twain: “There is no education in the second kick of a mule”. We have seen too many crises caused by hidden risks lurking beneath the surface – the ones we fail to see until it’s too late – which is precisely why we must get ahead of these risks this time around.

    Thank you very much for your attention.


    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Adriana D Kugler: The global fight against inflation

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Charts and figures accompanying the speech 

    Thank you, Isabel, and thank you for the opportunity to speak here at the ECB today. I am particularly pleased to be part of this year’s conference because the theme you have chosen has, for some time now, also been a theme of my career as an academic and public servant. Every day, of course, central bankers must bridge science and practice, drawing on the insights that research provides, specifically, because the economy and the world are continuously subject to new circumstances. We must do so, and put those insights into practice, because everyone in the United States, and in Europe, and around the world, depends on a healthy and growing economy, and depends on policymakers making the right decisions to help keep it that way.

    But well before I came to the Federal Reserve, I was also bridging science and practice. First, as a labor economist, when, for example, I was exploring how employment, productivity, and earnings are influenced not only by educational attainment and experience, but also by policies. Later, as chief economist at the Department of Labor, I brought science to bear in carrying out its mission of supporting workers. As the U.S. representative at the World Bank, economic science was likewise crucial in deciding how to best direct the institution’s resources to where they were needed the most. In each of these roles, I have learned a bit more about the need to balance rigorous scientific understanding of the problems that people face with the real-world experiences of those people, which sometimes do not fit so neatly into an economic theorem or principle.

    Most recently, my colleagues and I on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have been focused on the very practical task of reducing inflation while keeping employment at its maximum level. To understand the recent experience of high inflation in the United States, it is helpful to consider how inflation behaved around the world after the advent of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the remainder of my remarks, I will discuss the global dimensions of the recent bout of high inflation in different economies, both comparing similarities and contrasting differences, with a special emphasis on the factors that enabled the United States to achieve disinflation while having stronger economic activity relative to its peers. I will then conclude with some comments on the U.S. economic outlook and the implications for monetary policy.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why did Japan’s new leader trigger snap elections only a week after taking office? And what happens next?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Craig Mark, Adjunct Lecturer, Faculty of Economics, Hosei University

    Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, has been in the job for just over a week. But today, as had been widely expected, he dissolved Japan’s parliament, the Diet, triggering a snap election for later this month. It’s the fastest dissolution by a postwar leader in Japan.

    The typically short campaign will officially start on October 15, with election day on October 27.

    So, why is this election happening so soon after Ishiba took office? And what could happen next?

    Why hold elections now?

    Ishiba became prime minister on September 27 after finally winning the contest to be leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) on his fifth attempt. He narrowly beat the ultra-nationalist Sanae Takaichi, denying her bid to become Japan’s first female prime minister.

    By holding a snap election for the House of Representatives, a year before it is required under the Constitution, Ishiba is hoping to catch the opposition parties off guard and secure a more solid mandate to pursue his policy agenda. He’s banking on the public rallying behind a new face and image for his party, following the unpopularity of former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.

    The LDP should win next month’s election handily, despite the turbulence caused by recent scandals and leadership changes in the party. The LDP is still far ahead of the opposition in recent polling. A large number of people, however, remain uncommitted to any political party.

    The first approval rating poll for Ishiba’s new cabinet was also just over 50%. That’s lower than the polling for Kishida’s first cabinet three years ago. This indicates the public is not as enthusiastic for the new prime minister as the LDP might have hoped.

    The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) has also just elected a new leader, former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda. It is hoping to boost its consistently low opinion poll ratings by attempting to project an image of reliability and stability.

    What is Ishiba promising?

    In his first policy statement to the Diet last week, Ishiba pledged to revitalise the economy, particularly through doubling subsidies and stimulus spending for regional areas. He also promised to address wage growth, which remains weak due to cost of living pressures. It has been made worse by the relatively weak yen.

    Ishiba also wants to boost investment in next-generation technologies, particularly artificial intelligence and semiconductor manufacturing. And he indicated he may support an increase in the corporate tax rate. This could tap the massive cash reserves of major corporations to fund regional revitalisation programs. It could also provide more support to families of young children to boost Japan’s sagging birth rate.

    Tax hikes would also be necessary to maintain the higher defence spending that began under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and continued under Kishida.

    To appease the conservative wing of his party, which had backed Takaichi in the LDP leadership contest, Ishiba has backtracked on several policy positions he had previously supported. This includes reducing Japan’s reliance on nuclear power, allowing women to keep their family names after marriage, legalising same-sex marriage, and encouraging the Bank of Japan to gradually increase interest rates.

    Ishiba also conceded his proposal to pursue an “Asian-style NATO” will have to remain a longer-term ambition, after officials from India and the US expressed doubts over the proposal.

    Ishiba has confirmed, after some initial uncertainty, that his party will not endorse ten Diet members in the election who were implicated in a slush fund scandal that had damaged Kishida’s government. These Diet members are mainly from the large conservative wing of the party, removing some internal opposition to the new prime minister.

    However, public doubts over Ishiba’s commitment to genuine party reform, as well as infighting from the resentful remaining members of the conservative wing, could also result in a drop in support for the LDP.

    Is there any hope for the opposition?

    If it fares poorly in the election, the LDP could be even more dependent on support from its coalition partner, the Komeito Party, to retain control of the lower house and remain in government.

    The Komeito Party is backed by the Buddhist Soka Gakkai religious movement. It currently has 32 members in the Diet, compared to 258 for the LDP.

    To even have a chance of forming a minority government, the main opposition CDP (which has 99 seats currently) will need to present an appealing alternative policy program, which it has so far been unable to do. Japan has not had a minority government since 1993.

    Should the LDP-Komeito coalition nevertheless drop below the 233 Diet members required to maintain a majority, the second-largest opposition party, the populist, right-wing Japan Innovation Party, could find itself holding the balance of power.

    Ishiba’s challenge in this early election is not only to win enough votes to retain government, but to be electorally successful enough to hold off his rivals from the conservative wing of the LDP. They will be seeking to exploit any future failures by Ishiba to pressure him to step down early.

    If that were to happen, Takaichi would likely be a leadership contender again.

    Craig Mark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Why did Japan’s new leader trigger snap elections only a week after taking office? And what happens next? – https://theconversation.com/why-did-japans-new-leader-trigger-snap-elections-only-a-week-after-taking-office-and-what-happens-next-240888

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