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  • MIL-OSI USA: Kugler, How We Got Here: A Perspective on Inflation and the Labor Market

    Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

    Thank you, John, and thank you for the opportunity to speak here today.1 It is good to be back at the Kennedy School and in particular at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center, which has a long tradition of engaging on important policy issues.
    In my remarks today, I will provide my outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for monetary policy. The combination of significant ongoing progress in reducing inflation and a cooling in the labor market means that the time has come to begin easing monetary policy, and I strongly supported the decision last week by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. While future actions by the FOMC will depend on data we receive on inflation, employment, and economic activity, if conditions continue to evolve in the direction traveled thus far, then additional cuts will be appropriate.
    I will begin by summarizing where we stand on inflation, including details on how the different components of inflation have changed over time, since these facts form the basis for my judgment on where inflation is headed. I will then talk about the recent cooling in the labor market and the forces driving it as well as how shifts on this other side of our mandate fit into the overall economic outlook for the rest of this year. I will conclude with the implications of all this for appropriate monetary policy and our focus on our dual mandate.
    Inflation based on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) has come down from a peak of 7.1 percent on a year-on-year basis to 2.5 percent in July. Core PCE inflation, which excludes energy and food prices and tends to be less volatile, has come down from a peak of 5.6 percent to now 2.6 percent. Based on consumer and producer price indexes, I estimate headline PCE and core PCE inflation to be at about 2.2 and 2.7 percent, respectively, in August, consistent with ongoing progress toward the FOMC’s 2 percent target. The progress on inflation is good news, but it is important to remember that households and businesses are still dealing with prices for many goods and services that are significantly higher than a couple of years ago. Prices for groceries, for example, are about 20 percent higher than before inflation started rising in 2021, and while earnings have been rising faster than inflation, it may take some time for it to feel as though prices are back to normal.2
    Inflation data are produced by the Labor Department, and when I served as chief economist at Labor, I delved into the differential effects of inflation on various demographic groups. When inflation was at its peak in 2022, it was more than 1 percentage point higher for lower-income households, for those without a college degree, and for those aged 18 to 29—all groups that spend a higher share of income on necessities and have less wealth to draw from.3 Fortunately, research by staff at the Fed shows that disinflation helps close that gap as well, something that only adds to the urgency I feel about returning inflation to the FOMC’s 2 percent goal.
    Research on the causes of inflation and the subsequent disinflation show that both supply and demand forces have played an important role. In the past two years, specifically, improvements in supply, along with moderation in demand in part due to tighter monetary policy, have both played a role in the disinflationary process.4 Supply chain bottlenecks as well as the drastic drop in the labor force due to excess retirements and the withdrawal of prime-age workers contributed to the initial rise in inflation, but the resolution of these disruptions and the return of workers to the labor force have also helped rein in inflation. Early on, consumers shifted spending from services to goods, a development that goods producers struggled to accommodate, putting upward pressure on prices. But as the demand shock to goods unwound and consumer spending shifted back to services, goods inflation fell and has been running below zero in recent months. Also, the increased demand due to the fiscal response to COVID-19 in 2020 and 2021 has more recently been roughly neutral on growth, as shown by the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy in their measure of fiscal impact. And, of course, as I will discuss in a moment, tight monetary policy has been and continues to be a moderating force on demand, primarily by raising costs for interest-sensitive goods and services.
    As I think about where inflation is headed, I find it helpful to consider how it has evolved over the past several years and in particular how the major components of inflation have behaved, so I want to take a few minutes to walk through those details.
    As I have indicated, the big picture is that goods inflation surged early on in 2020 and 2021, followed by prices for services excluding housing, and then housing, with some overlap in those steps. Disinflation has followed that course in reverse. Core goods inflation rose, after almost a year of social distancing shifted spending from services and after production and delivery of goods was disrupted by the pandemic. This was a big change because over the long expansion leading to the pandemic, core goods prices actually fell, slightly but consistently.5 On a 12-month basis, core PCE goods inflation rose above zero in December 2020, reached a peak of 7.6 percent in February 2022, and fell again below zero at the end of 2023. In July of this year, it was negative 0.5 percent. This recent disinflation offset still-rising prices for services and helped reduce overall inflation. Goods inflation has reverted to its longer-term pattern as demand has moderated and supply chain problems have abated. This is reflected by various indexes of supply chain bottlenecks that showed the supply-side disruptions that contributed early on to surging inflation have now retreated to pre-pandemic levels.6 Other data show that computer chip supply, which fell far short of demand early in the pandemic, is back to normal conditions as well.
    Food and energy prices, always subject to larger ups and downs than other parts of inflation, rose also early on. Food inflation increased in 2020 as shoppers began stockpiling groceries and as warehouses and production facilities had difficulty staffing due to COVID. After Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy price inflation reached a peak 12-month rate of nearly 45 percent and food inflation reached a peak of 12 percent in mid-2022, highlighting the importance of petroleum and agricultural commodities from that part of the world. Food and energy inflation has moderated over the past two years and are now both running at 12-month rates of 1.4 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively, as supply chain issues have resolved and production in the U.S. and elsewhere has increased. Food and energy expenses represent a sizable share of consumer spending, but the frequent purchase of these goods means that they are highly salient in the public’s views on inflation. Research by Francesco D’Acunto and coauthors has shown that the weights that consumers assign to price changes in forming their inflation expectations are not based on the actual share of their expenditures but instead on the frequency of purchases, which happen to be highest for food and energy goods.7 Thus, the fall in food and energy prices is important because it may feed back into lower inflation in other categories by moderating overall inflation expectations and also real wage expectations in wage bargaining.
    Housing services price increases were the last component of inflation to escalate, rising to a peak 12-month rate of 8.3 percent in April 2023 and moderating to a 5.3 percent pace in July. It took time for housing prices to escalate and has taken longer for them to moderate because of both the nature of the rental market and the data collection method from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, as I have discussed at length in other speeches.8 However, new rent increases, which better capture rental price changes in real time, are falling and are the main reason why I expect housing services costs to moderate furt
    her.
    The final component of inflation is services excluding housing, which accounts for 50 percent of PCE inflation and is heavily influenced by labor markets. On a 12-month basis, this component of inflation rose to a peak of 5.3 percent in December 2021, stayed persistently high until February 2023, and has moderated since then to 3.3 percent in July of this year. Its escalation was driven both by the rise in labor costs and by the transition of demand from goods to services following the pandemic. Labor costs are a substantial share of the total costs for services. For example, labor accounts for between 60 percent to 80 percent of costs in construction, education, and health services.
    Among the initial forces driving the escalation in wages were the increase in food and energy prices, as wage demands tend to track closely with the prices of these frequently purchased goods. Data on wage demands from the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations indeed show a sudden increase early on during the pandemic right after the first bout of food inflation.9 Importantly, worker shortages likely allowed those higher wage demands to be realized, contributing to the rise in wages. Later, as demand for services quickly rose and employers were creating a large number of jobs in several service sectors, workers were able to be more selective, and the ensuing “Great Resignation” took hold, allowing people to choose different careers. The relatively high demand relative to the supply of workers in some service sectors encouraged workers to move from job to job for higher wages, benefits, and other improvements in working conditions. Evidence from the Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker suggests that during this period, wages for job switchers grew more than 2 percentage points faster than wages for people staying in the same job, though this wage premium for job switchers disappeared by the second half of last year.
    But now inflation for services excluding housing is declining, after a temporary escalation in the first quarter of this year that was likely partly due to residual seasonality. There had been fears that wage increases would drive a wage–price spiral, as the U.S. experienced in the 1970s, but this did not occur.
    To sum up, inflation has broadly moderated as the supply of goods and services has improved, and as producers and consumers have adjusted to the effects of higher prices. Demand has moderated, in part due to tighter monetary policy. And, as I just noted, changes in the pace of wage growth have also played an important role in the ups and downs of inflation, which points me toward a discussion of labor markets, which has recently become a greater focus of monetary policy.
    As I have noted, there has been a significant moderation in the labor market recently, but I want to start by pointing to what really has been a remarkable performance of the labor market over the past four years. After the unprecedented job losses early in the pandemic, and even accounting for the quick recovery of a large share of those losses, the recovery of the labor market that followed was historically swift. Unemployment was 7.8 percent in September 2020 and 4.7 percent only 12 months later, and it fell to under 4 percent 3 months after that. That is a more rapid recovery than the U.S. has experienced since the 1960’s. What started, at that point, was 30 straight months of unemployment at or below 4 percent, which had not happened during the pre-pandemic period, the boom of the 1990s, or anytime during the 1980s, and it was only exceeded by the strong labor market of the latter half of the 1960s. Something that I think was just as remarkable has been the narrowing of the typical gap between labor market outcomes for less-advantaged groups. For example, there has been a reduction in the unemployment rate between Black and Latino workers, on the one hand, and white workers, on the other hand. There has also been a narrowing of the prime-age labor force participation rate among these groups, and, perhaps most notable of all, wage inequality among them has narrowed, which is not typical during economic expansions, according to research by David Autor and several coauthors.10 They found that one benefit of the unusually tight labor market of the past few years was that the heightened competition for scarce workers produced more rapid wage gains for workers at the bottom of the wage distribution. The real wage gains for those in the lower quartiles of the distribution and with higher propensities to consume, in turn, likely spurred consumption and helped sustain growth after the pandemic.
    After a couple of years in which labor demand exceeded supply, the labor market has come into balance, reflecting an economy that has moderated in part due to tighter monetary policy. On the labor supply side, two forces have contributed to this rebalancing of the labor market. Labor force participation suffered due to the disruptions in work during the pandemic but rebounded strongly in 2022 and 2023 as the labor market tightened and wages rose sharply. The labor force participation rate for prime-age women reached historic highs over the past year and reached yet another historic record high in August. The overall increase in participation among workers aged 25 to 54, in the prime of their working lives, helped offset the loss of many workers aged 55 and over who experienced excess retirements during the pandemic. The second force boosting labor supply has been the large increase in immigration. The Congressional Budget Office estimates that net immigration boosted the U.S. population by close to 6 million people in 2022 and 2023, the majority of them of working age, and, by most accounts, rates of immigration have remained high in 2024.
    As a result of improved supply and easing of demand for workers, the labor market has rebalanced. After running at very low levels, unemployment has edged up this year to 4.2 percent in August, still quite low by historical standards. The slowdown in labor demand is most evident in payroll numbers. Job creation averaged 267,000 a month in the first quarter of the year and now stands at an average of 116,000 in the three months ending in August, which is still a healthy pace of job creation. Yet, given recent revisions in the payroll numbers, it is important to continue monitoring additional labor market indicators. In addition, the fall in diffusion indexes suggests that job creation cooling has been broad based, complementing the payroll data in showing rebalances in demand and supply across sectors. Beyond payroll data, voluntary quits, which tend to reflect the rate at which people find a better job, are now back around where they were before the pandemic. The ratio of job vacancies to the number of people looking for work, the V/U ratio, has also fallen close to its pre-pandemic ratio.11 In summary, after a period of demand exceeding supply, the labor market appears to have rebalanced.
    In tandem with the cooling in the labor market, economic activity has slowed but is still expanding at a solid pace. After adjusting for inflation, gross domestic product (GDP) grew 2.5 percent in 2023 and at around a 2 percent annual rate in the first half of 2024. Personal spending, which accounts for the majority of economic activity, has been solid this year, supported by a resilient labor market so far and high levels of household wealth relative to income. But given a rise in credit card and auto delinquencies, a rise in credit card balances, and a cooling labor market, I expect spending to grow at a somewhat more moderate pace moving forward.
    Certainly, tight monetary policy has contributed to cool off aggregate demand and slow the economy. It has done so in large part by slowing spending on interest-sensitive expenditures, such as housing, as well as autos and other durable goods. Other spending typically financed with credit, such as business equipment, has also been slower.
    Another effect of tight monetary policy is to keep expectations of future inflation in check. And, to the extent that ex
    pectations affect decisions by businesses to set prices and by workers to negotiate wages, this has helped put downward pressure on inflation. Survey- and market-based measures of future inflation did increase when inflation surged, but only modestly, and they have moved down in tandem with inflation and have largely returned to their 2019 levels.
    In conclusion, I would say that recent economic developments, against the backdrop of the experience of the past four years, have validated the Federal Reserve’s focus on reducing inflation and set the stage for the shift in monetary policy that occurred last week. The progress in bringing down inflation thus far, coupled with the softening in the labor market that I have described, means that while our focus should remain on continuing to bring inflation to 2 percent, we should now also shift attention to the maximum-employment side of the FOMC’s dual mandate. The labor market remains resilient, but the FOMC now needs to balance its focus so we can continue making progress on disinflation while avoiding unnecessary pain and weakness in the economy as disinflation continues in the right trajectory. I strongly supported last week’s decision and, if progress on inflation continues as I expect, I will support additional cuts in the federal funds rate going forward.
    Thank you.

    1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text
    2. Unlike in previous recoveries, those in the lower half of the distribution have benefited more from the real earnings increases during the post-pandemic period. The 12-month change in average hourly earnings and the employment cost index have been rising faster than consumer price index inflation for those in the first and second quartiles since 2019 and since 2022, respectively, and for everyone across the distribution for roughly a year. Return to text
    3. See Xavier Jaravel (2021), “Inflation Inequality: Measurement, Causes, and Policy Implications,” Annual Review of Economics, vol. 13, pp. 599–629. Return to text
    4. Different approaches allow a parsing of the relative contributions of supply and demand, top-down approaches by Bernanke and Blanchard (forthcoming) and Benigno and Eggertson (2023) and bottom-up approaches by Braun, Flaaen, and Hoke (2024) and Shapiro (2022); see Ben Bernanke and Olivier Blanchard (forthcoming), “What Caused the U.S. Pandemic-Era Inflation?” American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics; Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti B. Eggertsson (2023), “It’s Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve,” NBER Working Paper Series 31197 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, April); Robin Braun, Aaron Flaaen, and Sinem Hacioglu Hoke (2024), “Supply vs Demand Factors Influencing Prices of Manufactured Goods,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 23); and Adam Hale Shapiro (2022), “How Much Do Supply and Demand Drive Inflation?” FRBSF Economic Letter 2022-15 (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, June 21). All of these studies agree that both supply and demand shocks contributed to the surge in inflation as well as its fall. Return to text
    5. The causes most often cited by economists are competition from globalized trade and productivity gains, including from technological advances. Return to text
    6. The most commonly used indicators of supply chain bottlenecks are the Global Supply Chain Pressure Index produced by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the Supplier Deliveries Index from the Institute for Supply Management, and the percent of answers to the question of why production is not at capacity in the Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization fielded by the Census Bureau and funded by the Federal Reserve Board. Return to text
    7. See Francesco D’Acunto, Ulrike Malmendier, Juan Ospina, and Michael Weber (2021), “Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations,” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 129 (May), 1615–39. Return to text
    8. Rental prices are the basis for all estimates of housing service costs. Prices tend to change only when rented homes change tenants, which happens relatively infrequently. Prices tend to change more when there are new tenants, while the majority of lease renewals tend to keep the same price-generating persistence. In addition, the Bureau of Economic Analysis samples rents only every six months. As a result, substantial lags are built into the official statistics. See Adriana D. Kugler (2024), “The Outlook for the Economy and Monetary Policy,” speech delivered at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., February 7; Adriana D. Kugler (2024), “Some Reasons for Optimism about Inflation,” speech delivered at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., June 18. Return to text
    9. The Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Fed collects data on “reservation wages,” which are what workers report as being the minimum wage that they would require to accept a job. Return to text
    10. See David Autor, Arindrajit Dube, and Annie McGrew (2024), “The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market,” NBER Working Paper Series 31010 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, March; revised May 2024). Using Current Population Survey microdata, they show that increased labor market competition for scarce workers produced more rapid real wage gains at the bottom of the wage distribution, reducing wage inequality. Return to text
    11. I consider here a V/U ratio in which the numerator is the ratio of the vacancy rate for the total nonfarm sector computed as job openings over the labor force. Job openings data are from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey fielded by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The denominator is the unemployment rate. The last data point available for job openings is July 2024, while the last data point for the unemployment rate is August. Return to text

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: SEC Levies More Than $3.8 Million in Penalties in Sweep of Late Beneficial Ownership and Insider Transaction Reports

    Source: Securities and Exchange Commission

    The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced settled charges against 23 entities and individuals for failures to timely report information about their holdings and transactions in public company stock. Two public companies were also charged for contributing to filing failures by their officers and directors and failing to report their insiders’ filing delinquencies as required.

    The charges announced today stem from SEC enforcement initiatives focused on Schedules 13D and 13G reports and Forms 3, 4, and 5 that certain corporate insiders are required to file. Schedules 13D and 13G provide information about the holdings and intentions of investors who beneficially own more than five percent of any registered voting class of public company stock. Forms 3, 4, and 5 are reports used to provide information about public company stock transactions by corporate officers, directors, or certain investors who beneficially own more than 10 percent of the stock. These reporting requirements apply irrespective of whether the trades were profitable and regardless of a person’s reasons for the transactions. SEC staff used data analytics to identify the charged individuals and entities as filing required reports late.

    Without admitting or denying the findings, all of the entities and individuals agreed to cease and desist from committing and causing violations of the respective charged provisions and to pay civil penalties.

    The firms charged in connection with beneficial ownership of publicly traded companies and their respective penalties are:

    • Sunbeam Management, LLC – $40,000;
    • TALANTA Investment Group, LLC – $45,000;
    • Grays Peak Ventures LLC – $65,000;
    • Stilwell Value LLC – $75,000;
    • BSC, LP – $75,000;
    • Bain Capital Credit Member, LLC – $130,000;
    • FIG LLC, which conducts business under the name Fortress Investment Group – $200,000;
    • Adage Capital Management, L.P. – $200,000;
    • Essex Woodlands Management, Inc. – $225,000;
    • The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. – $300,000;
    • Oaktree Capital Management, L.P. – $375,000;
    • The Bank of Nova Scotia – $375,000; and
    • Alphabet Inc. – $750,000.

    Alphabet was also charged with failing to timely file Forms 13F, reports institutional money managers are required to file regarding certain sizeable securities holdings.

    The Individuals charged who were officers, directors, and/or beneficial owners of publicly traded companies, and the civil penalty each will pay, are:

    • Mitchell P. Rales, of Potomac, Maryland – $10,000;
    • Scott B. Stevens, of Bedford, New York – $20,000;
    • Michael Winterhalter, of Dana Point, California – $20,000;
    • Pedro C. Gonzalez, of St. Petersburg, Florida – $25,000;
    • Curtis Drew Hodgson, of Addison, Texas – $30,000;
    • Kenneth E. Shipley, of Levelland, Texas – $30,000;
    • Peter M. Thomas, of Las Vegas, Nevada – $77,000;
    • Howard S. Jonas, of Easton, Pennsylvania – $90,000;
    • David L. Kanen, of Parkland, Florida – $109,000; and
    • Jack W. Schuler, of Lake Bluff, Illinois – $200,000.

    The public companies charged that contributed to filing failures and failed to report delinquencies, and the civil penalty each will pay, are:

    • Legacy Housing Corporation – $200,000; and
    • Celsius Holdings, Inc. – $200,000.

    “To make informed investment decisions, shareholders rely on, among other things, timely reports about insider holdings and transactions and changes in potential controlling interests,” said Thomas P. Smith, Jr., Associate Regional Director of the SEC’s Division of Enforcement. “Today’s actions are a reminder to large investors that they must commit necessary resources to ensure these reports are filed on time.” 

    The SEC previously charged corporate insiders for failing to timely report transactions and holdings, and several issuers for contributing to their insiders’ failures in September 2023.

    The SEC’s investigations were conducted by Eric C. Kirsch and Bari R. Nadworny, of the New York Regional Office, Christine Chen and Gary Zinkgraf of SEC Headquarters, Cassandra Arriaza and Dahlia Rin of the Boston Regional Office, Jennifer Miller of the Philadelphia Regional Office, and Douglas Dykhuizen of the Atlanta Regional Office. Beth Groves, Howard Kaplan, and Alexander C. Lefferts of the Division of Enforcement’s Office of Investigative & Market Analytics and Michael Pessin of the Division of Economic and Risk Analysis also provided assistance. The teams worked in close collaboration with Anne M. Krauskopf and Nicholas P. Panos in the agency’s Division of Corporation Finance. The investigations were supervised by Wendy Tepperman and Mr. Smith of the New York Regional Office and Jeffrey Weiss, Armita Cohen, and Mark Cave of SEC Headquarters.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI: Amalgamated Bank Issues Annual Environmental, Social and Governance Report for 2023

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    NEW YORK, Sept. 25, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Amalgamated Bank, a subsidiary of Amalgamated Financial Corp. (Nasdaq: AMAL), today announced the publication of its 2023 Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) Report. The annual report provides a comprehensive overview of Amalgamated Bank’s performance in its approach to addressing ESG risk as a part of delivering value for clients and investors.

    “Amalgamated Bank’s unwavering commitment to operating with the best interest of our clients in mind is a cornerstone of our mission. We take pride in partnering with companies who prioritize environmental stewardship, champion social justice, and demonstrate exemplary corporate governance,” said Priscilla Sims Brown, Amalgamated Bank’s President and CEO. “And we continue our commitment to using our financial resources and corporate influence to advance economic, social and environmental change.”

    Highlights of the report include:

    Business Impact: Redefining Success

    In 2023, Amalgamated Bank achieved B-Corp recertification with a score of 155.3, almost double the score needed to qualify and over three times the score of an ordinary business; setting a new standard for corporate responsibility. Its funding to climate solutions totaled more than $2 billion representing more than 39% of its lending portfolio and Property Assessed Clean Energy (“PACE”) assessments. Nearly 70% of Amalgamated Bank’s lending portfolios are high-impact and 100% mission aligned.

    Climate Action: Leading the Charge on Sustainability

    Amalgamated Bank is also committed to aligning all of its business practices with the goals of the Paris Climate Agreement. While growing its total amount of loans and investments, Amalgamated Bank reported a fifth consecutive year of increasing the share dedicated to climate solutions. In 2023, Amalgamated Bank reported an industry leading emissions intensity of 14.7 tons of CO2e per million dollars invested and supported clean energy projects that resulted in 243,010 tons of avoided emissions.

    Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion: A Workforce that Reflects Our Values

    For the second year in a row, its pay equity analysis showed substantial parity in pay for women and minorities. Based on last year’s pay equity analysis, the Bank earned an “A” on Arjuna Capital’s Racial and Gender Pay Scorecard, the highest score in the financial sector. The Bank received a perfect score on the Human Rights Campaign Foundation’s Corporate Index. The Bank’s workforce diversity data reveals that its commitment to building a diverse and vibrant workforce that reflects the communities it serves remains intact. In addition to EEO-1 aligned reporting, the Bank also discloses industry leading, workforce-related data on hiring, promotion, and departures.

    “We continue to develop financial products that prioritize environmental and social benefits alongside financial returns,” said Ivan Frishberg, Amalgamated Bank’s Chief Sustainability Officer. “Every product and service we offer is designed with more than the bottom line in mind, ensuring our impact extends far beyond financial success. We are proud to lead by example and set new standards for what it means to be a responsible and forward-thinking financial institution.”

    About Amalgamated Financial Corp.

    Amalgamated Financial Corp. is a Delaware public benefit corporation and a bank holding company engaged in commercial banking and financial services through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Amalgamated Bank. Amalgamated Bank is a New York-based full-service commercial bank and a chartered trust company with a combined network of five branches across New York City, Washington D.C., and San Francisco, and a commercial office in Boston. Amalgamated Bank was formed in 1923 as Amalgamated Bank of New York by the Amalgamated Clothing Workers of America, one of the country’s oldest labor unions. Amalgamated Bank provides commercial banking and trust services nationally and offers a full range of products and services to both commercial and retail customers. Amalgamated Bank is a proud member of the Global Alliance for Banking on Values and is a certified B Corporation®. As of June 30, 2024, our total assets were $8.3 billion, total net loans were $4.4 billion, and total deposits were $7.4 billion. Additionally, as of June 30, 2024, our trust business held $34.6 billion in assets under custody and $14.0 billion in assets under management.

    Investor Contact:
    Jamie Lillis
    Solebury Strategic Communications
    shareholderrelations@amalgamatedbank.com
    800-895-4172

    Source: Amalgamated Financial Corp.

    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-OSI: CommUNITYFirst Day 2024, Held on September 24th, Benefits Thousands

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    RED BANK, N.J., Sept. 25, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — OceanFirst Bank N.A. (“OceanFirst” or the “Bank”), a subsidiary of OceanFirst Financial Corp. (NASDAQ:OCFC), held its third annual CommUNITYFirst Day on September 24th, 2024, providing volunteer assistance to community organizations across the Bank’s market area. All OceanFirst branch locations and loan offices were closed on the afternoon of September 24th to enable employees to volunteer at local nonprofit organizations, with more than 700 team members joining in the effort.

    More than 75 nonprofit organizations in New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New York and Massachusetts requested OceanFirst employees, known as WaveMakers, to help complete a variety of projects that will assist people and neighborhoods with the greatest needs. The nonprofit organizations focus on providing housing, alleviating food insecurity, protecting the environment, aiding future generations, building inclusive communities, fostering economic empowerment, improving health and wellness, and promoting arts and culture.

    “CommUNITYFirst Day began in 2021 and has become an annual tradition at OceanFirst. It is a great opportunity for the Bank to extend a helping hand to our neighbors in the communities where our employees live and work,” said Joe Lebel, OceanFirst Bank President and Chief Operating Officer. “With more than 700 employees participating in CommUNITYFirst Day 2024, we were proud to assist our nonprofit partners and the people they serve.”

    Meals on Wheels of Ocean County (“Meals on Wheels”) was one of the more than 75 nonprofit organizations that hosted OceanFirst employees for CommUNITYFirst Day 2024. According to Heather deJong, Community Relations Specialist at Meals on Wheels, “Meals on Wheels of Ocean County is so appreciative of the army of volunteers we had during CommUNITYFirst Day. We deliver 1,000 meals each day, Monday thru Friday, to our homebound and food insecure seniors and OceanFirst’s volunteers saved our kitchen staff a day’s worth of work by prepping and putting the cold components of our meal into 1,000 grab-and-go bags that our drivers will now deliver along with the hot entrée and sides tomorrow.”

    Since CommUNITYFirst Day was established, OceanFirst Bank employees have volunteered almost 9,000 hours in conjunction with CommUNITYFirst Day. Volunteer opportunities are coordinated for OceanFirst employees in collaboration with OceanFirst Foundation, whose mission is to empower nonprofits to think bigger, solve more problems, and make life better in the neighborhoods served by OceanFirst Bank.

    OceanFirst Bank N.A., a subsidiary of OceanFirst Financial Corp., founded in 1902, is a $13.3 billion regional bank providing financial services throughout New Jersey and in the major metropolitan areas between Massachusetts and Virginia. OceanFirst Bank delivers commercial and residential financing, treasury management, trust and asset management and deposit services and is one of the largest and oldest community-based financial institutions headquartered in New Jersey. To learn more about OceanFirst go to www.oceanfirst.com.

    Company Contact:
    Jill Apito Hewitt
    OceanFirst Bank N.A.
    Director of Corporate Communications
    1.888.623.2633 ext. 27513
    jhewitt@oceanfirst.com

    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: EIB provides €220 million to Nexi to back digital payment innovation in Europe

    Source: European Investment Bank

    EIB

    • The new funds will contribute to the development of the group’s innovative digital payment products and services.
    • The projects financed will support the group’s sustainability-related environmental, social and governance goals, which have already been announced to the market.

    The European Investment Bank (EIB) is providing €220 million in financing to Nexi Group, Europe’s largest PayTech company, to support innovation in the digital payments sector. The agreement was announced today in Milano by EIB Vice-President Gelsomina Vigliotti and Nexi Group CFO Bernardo Mingrone.

    Nexi will use the EIB funds to develop and manage projects aimed at modernising digital payments in Europe, and to finance specific initiatives that leverage the expertise of Nexi Digital, a European technological innovation hub created in collaboration with Reply, an Italian company and European leader in digital transformation.

    The identified projects are fully aligned with Nexi Group’s environmental, social, and governance (ESG) objectives, which have already been communicated to the market. These include promoting digital payment innovation across Europe, creating jobs for young people and in disadvantaged areas, and enhancing environmental sustainability by optimizing data centres and developing cloud-based activities.

    This is the first EIB loan granted to a publicly listed company in the digital payments sector, underscoring Nexi’s commitment to advancing the digital and technological transition.

    EIB Vice-President Gelsomina Vigliotti commented: “This operation represents a major step forward in the development of Europe-wide digital payment solutions, helping to reduce the use of cash and prevent fraud and tax evasion. This operation highlights the EIB’s commitment to promoting digitalisation and innovation in businesses and public sector organisations, which are key elements of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan.”

    Nexi Group CFO Bernardo Mingrone added: “We are proud that the European Investment Bank has recognised our ongoing commitment to the development of innovative products and services promoting digital payment reliability and security, two key requirements for rolling out these services in the European countries where we operate. This agreement is further confirmation that even major players like the EIB recognise Nexi’s vital role in developing and supporting digitalisation in Europe.”

    Background information

    The European Investment Bank (EIB) is the long-term lending institution of the European Union owned by its Member States. It finances sound investments that can contribute to EU policy. EIB projects strengthen competitiveness, foster innovation, promote sustainable development and improve social and territorial cohesion while supporting a fair and rapid transition towards climate neutrality. In the past five years, the EIB Group has provided more than €58 billion in financing for projects in Italy.

    Nexi is Europe’s PayTech company operating in high-growth, attractive European markets and technologically advanced countries. Listed on Euronext Milan, Nexi has the scale, geographic reach and abilities to drive the transition to a cashless Europe. With its portfolio of innovative products, e-commerce expertise and industry-specific solutions, Nexi provides flexible support for the digital economy and the entire payment ecosystem globally, across a broad range of different payment channels and methods. Nexi’s technological platform and the best-in-class professional skills in the sector enable the company to operate at its best in three market segments: Merchant Solutions, Issuing Solutions and Digital Banking Solutions. Nexi constantly invests in technology and innovation, focusing on two fundamental principles: meeting, together with its partner banks, customer needs and creating new business opportunities for them. Nexi is committed to supporting people and businesses of all sizes, transforming the way people pay and businesses accept payments. It offers companies the most innovative and reliable solutions to better serve their customers and expand. By simplifying payments and enabling people and businesses to build closer relationships and grow together, Nexi promotes progress to benefit everyone. www.nexi.it/en www.nexigroup.com

    Nexi Digital Investment Plan
    EIB provides €220 million to Nexi to back digital payment innovation in Europe
    ©EIB
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    Nexi Digital Investment Plan
    EIB provides €220 million to Nexi to back digital payment innovation in Europe
    ©EIB
    Download original
    Nexi Digital Investment Plan
    EIB provides €220 million to Nexi to back digital payment innovation in Europe
    ©EIB
    Download original
    Nexi Digital Investment Plan
    EIB provides €220 million to Nexi to back digital payment innovation in Europe
    ©EIB
    Download original

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Doorstop – Launceston

    Source: Australian Executive Government Ministers

    ANTHONY ALBANESE, PRIME MINISTER: Well, it’s fantastic to be here with the Premier of Tasmania, Jeremy Rockliff, with my Education Minister, Jason Clare, with Senator Helen Polley and with Deputy Premier, Michael Ferguson here this morning. And this is a big day for the Commonwealth and a big day for Tasmania. The two services that are most important to people’s lives are health and education. And today, we have some fantastic announcements on both. First of all, it’s great to be here at Launceston General Hospital. I do want to thank the administration and the staff, the doctors, the nurses, the volunteers who’ve shown us around here this morning. It’s been a great privilege, and I do want to take the opportunity to thank them for the difference that they make to people’s lives here in Northern Tasmania. But I want to say that it’s a good day for them too, it’s a good day, most importantly, for the people of Northern Tasmania. Because this announcement today of $120 million from the Federal Government for a Northern Heart Centre will make an enormous difference. People in Northern Tasmania should not have to cross the Bass Strait to the North Island in order to get the health care that they deserve. They should get it here in their local community and this Northern Heart Centre, which is well advanced in terms of its planning, will make an enormous difference for research. Most importantly, to be able to get that early detection and early care here, so that if you avoid a traumatic incident, then you actually save money as well as saving lives. And that’s why I’ve been talking with the Premier about the importance of this. This will mean more beds and less pressure on the hospital’s Emergency Department. The Centre will have its own dedicated lab that can diagnose and treat various heart conditions, allowing patients to bypass the Emergency Department with its own access to the intensive care unit and medical imaging. That will make an enormous difference here in Northern Tasmania. And I’m very proud that this is a part of my Government’s commitment to strengthening Medicare and providing better healthcare for all Australians, regardless of where they live. Further today I can announce that my Government and the Tasmanian Government have signed a historic agreement that means all Tasmanian public schools will be fully and fairly funded. We promised we would fully fund schools in Tasmania and today we deliver. Tasmania is the third state now after Northern Territory and Western Australia to sign up. The Commonwealth has $16 billion on the table to make sure that every school can reach that designation of fair funding that was first put forward by Gonski, by David Gonski, in his Review. The other thing that it will do of course, is the nature of education as well. Because we want to make sure it’s not just about dollars, it’s about how education is delivered. And the signing up of this agreement will make sure that the priorities that parents talk about, making sure that the basics are looked after, make sure that we lift literacy and numeracy right across Tasmania, but right across the country, is what we want to see. We want to make sure that if a child falls behind that a school is in a position to be able to lift them up. Simple as that. During the election campaign in 2022, I spoke about no one being left behind and no one held back. And that’s what education and health are at the centre of. Making sure that no one’s left behind. Every child has the opportunity to fulfil their potential, but also making sure that people are looked after in terms of their healthcare. So, this is a really exciting day and it’s a good day. And I do want to thank Jeremy for the relationship that we have, in spite of the fact we’re from different political parties, we’re just concerned about getting things done. And that’s what this is about today. Getting things done in the interests of Northern Tasmanians when it comes to healthcare and getting things done on behalf of all younger Australians, Tasmanians and their families, importantly going forward as well. So, I want to thank Jason Clare as well for the extraordinary work that he has done. Mark Butler, our Health Minister has worked hard on this as well, and that is a very good thing that we’ve been able to achieve this today. I’ll hand over to Jeremy, I will then hand to Jason Clare, the Education Minister, and then I’m happy to take some questions and I’m sure that Jeremy will as well. And then we have some document signing that we’re going to do to fulfil this delivery that we’re announcing today.

    JEREMY ROCKLIFF, PREMIER OF TASMANIA: Thank you very much, Prime Minister. And it’s great to be here with the Deputy Premier, Michael Ferguson, Federal Minister for Education, Jason Clare and Senator Helen Polley. Thank you Fiona, for your commitment and passion to healthcare across the North. As Chief Executive of the Launceston General Hospital, can I say to you a big thanks to all the people that you work with on a daily basis. From administration to the healthcare professionals, to the volunteers that make up this wonderful institution, the Launceston General Hospital, delivering healthcare for many, many thousands of Tasmanians across north and north west Tasmania. This is a great day for healthcare. This is a great day for our schools, education and public investment in education. And I want to thank the Prime Minister for the great collaboration that we have had over the course of the last couple of years. It’s not the first time I’ve stood alongside the Prime Minister when it comes to announcing key partnerships in health. Whether that be GP recruitment, whether that be Urgent Care Clinics. It’s not the first time, of course – we’ve also got partnerships when it comes to urban renewal projects as well. And so what Tasmanians expect is their federal and state governments to work together in the very best interests of them and in this case the best interests served in healthcare and indeed our schools across Tasmania. We made a very clear commitment at the last election that we will deliver a $120 million Heart Centre and that is exactly what will be delivered at this site over the course of the next few years. That commitment has been realised through the strong collaboration and working relationship with the Federal and State Governments. A $120 million commitment from the Federal Government. And can I say Prime Minister, thank you to you, to Mark Butler – who I worked with very closely as Health Minister for a number of years – but also on behalf of all Tasmanians that will of course be cared for through this facility. Northern and north western Tasmania have the highest rates of cardiovascular disease in the country. This is why this investment is so critical and the partnership will endure. The partnership of capital investment from the Federal Government and of course the operational investment from the Tasmanian Government means that this will be delivered. It will be delivered by 2029 and will be servicing Tasmanians, particularly Northern Tasmanians, for many, many decades to come. Can I also pay tribute to Jason Clare, the Federal Minister for Education, and of course our State Minister for Education, Jo Palmer, who would be here if it wasn’t for Budget Estimates in southern Tasmania. I know Jason and Jo have worked very closely in securing this Agreement on behalf of families across Tasmania, our students, of course, in public schools. There is no better investment in productivity and wellbeing than education. And having been Education Minister for seven years, I can well and truly appreciate the need for fair funding when it comes to our public schools, particularly our schools of disadvantage across the country and indeed in Tasmania. That’s why I was very proud to be part of the Gonski Two Agreement as Education Minister, where you apply that fair funding model to support students across our public school environment. What this will mean is an additional $300 million into our public schools over the course of the next five years, focusing on early intervention when it comes to numeracy and literacy, focusing on students well being as well. And when students have good wellbeing, they have a very strong learning environment as well. And so we are committed as a Tasmanian Government, in partnership with the Federal Government, to deliver significant uplift in funding for our public schools over the next five years or sooner. So, thank you for working with us, Prime Minister and Federal Education Minister, Jason Clare. It is a great example of federal and state governments working together. At the end of the day, what Tasmanians care about is good quality services and what they want to see is cooperation in partnership between federal and state government, irrespective of political colour, to deliver for them. And today we have delivered in spades for our public schools and healthcare across Northern Tasmania. And with those few words, I’ll hand to Jason.

    JASON CLARE, MINISTER FOR EDUCATION: Thanks Premier. Can I start by paying credit to the Prime Minister and the Premier. These are two leaders who know how to get the job done and these are two leaders who understand the power of education. The power of education to change children’s lives. And this investment, this announcement that we’re making today, will change the lives of children here in Tasmania. Can I also thank you Deputy Premier. And can I thank my dear friend, the Education Minister of Tasmania, Jo Palmer, who, as the Premier said, can’t be with us because of Estimates. She is a great Education Minister. It’s a privilege to work with her and I’m looking forward to implementing this Agreement that we’ll sign today with her. This is a historic day for Tasmania. It’s a historic day for public education in Tasmania. Today we sign agreements that will make sure that every public school in Tasmania is fully funded, as the Prime Minister said, at that level that David Gonski set for us all those years ago. And the Premier talked about the money, about $300 million. But he also made the point, and I’m glad you did, Premier, about what this money will be invested in. Because it’s not just about the money, it’s what it does. This money will help us to invest in things like a phonics check and a numeracy check in year one or in the early years, to identify children who are falling behind when they’re little and then make sure that we intervene and provide them with the sort of supports that will help them to catch up and to keep up and to finish school. Things like catch up tutoring. We know that when a child’s falling behind in a classroom of 20 or 30, if you take them out of that classroom, into a classroom of two or three, with one teacher, four days a week, 40 minutes at a time, that they can learn as much in six months as they’d normally learn in a year. In other words, they catch up. And if children catch up when they’re young, they’re more likely to go on and finish high school and then go on to TAFE or to university. And the investment in health and wellbeing is just as important. There’s a real and obvious link between education and health. You see it in these two announcements today, but we also see it in our classrooms. Because children that are experiencing mental health challenges are more likely to not be at school, to be absent from school. And by year nine, they’re about a year and a half or three years behind the rest of the children in their class in literacy and numeracy. So, investments in things like psychologists and counsellors to provide that wrap around support at schools can make all the difference in whether a child finishes school or not. Can I end where I began – this is a fantastic example of our two governments working together. And most importantly, it shows what we can achieve when we work together. And when Parliament returns, I’ll introduce legislation to make this extra investment in our children and in Tasmania a reality.

    PRIME MINISTER: Thanks, Jase. Happy to take questions.

    JOURNALIST: Prime Minister, has your Government asked Treasury –

    PRIME MINISTER: We’ve got an announcement to help every child in school and can we have questions about this first? And then I’m happy to go down whatever direction you want. Are there any questions about today’s announcements?

    JOURNALIST: The Education Union has been calling on this for some time. Why are you choosing to fund it now?

    PRIME MINISTER: We’ve been in government for two years and we’re getting it done. We’ve got it done now with the Premier, Roger Cook. We’ve got it done in the Northern Territory, which in particular required a substantial lift up per person in the Northern Territory because so many schools there, particularly in remote areas, have missed out. And we’ve got this done in Tasmania and we’re hopeful of getting it done in other states as well, are imminent. I’ve been speaking with Premiers and Chief Ministers. At the last meeting of the National Cabinet, the Premier and I, as well as other Premiers and Chief Ministers, spoke about how important this was, that we get this done. David Gonski did this work some time ago in the Gillard Government to look at what the level of funding was needed to bring every child up to the best of their potential. And that’s what Jason has spoken about – practical differences that it makes. I think it helps, the fact that Jeremy’s been the Education Minister and gets it. And so I’d encourage the other states to sign up. We’ve got $16 billion on the table. This means that the Commonwealth contribution will be lifted up to 22.5 per cent of that standard and the state contribution will be lifted to 77.5 per cent. Making sure that this is realised, because this is so important and we’ve been able to get it done and we’re getting it done today.

    JOURNALIST: Prime Minister, on the Heart Centre. We know right across Australia, Tasmania is no exception, that there is a critical shortage of healthcare workers. How confident are you that there will be the workers that are needed to make this Centre a success?

    PRIME MINISTER: We’re very confident that that can be done. One of the things that we’re doing as well is making sure that we train additional doctors, that we train nurses and healthcare professionals. I’ve been into TAFEs here in Tasmania, for example, I met young people and people retraining to go back into the health system. That has been very important. So we’ll work as well, we have – as Jeremy said, we had quite an innovative plan for additional GPs here that we announced. I think just down the road in Devonport at the Mercy Hospital. We are working with the Tasmanian Government to make sure that we have that capacity. We do need an appropriate workforce in order to deliver. But the other thing is, if you don’t do the right thing, sometimes you can end up chasing your tail. So, emergency departments get more and more pressure on them, which creates more difficulties in the system. So, we have, for example, our four Urgent Care Clinics that have opened here in Tasmania. We’ve got a fifth coming and there’s a potential of more there. They have seen tens of thousands of Tasmanians – all Tasmanians have needed is their Medicare card, not their credit card. They’ve got the care that we need. I’ve been into the Urgent Care Clinic there in Hobart that has been an enormous success. There’s one here in Lonnie. And what we do if you do that is you stop people going to the emergency departments of hospitals, if they have a broken arm or the kids fall off the bike or the skateboard, or they cut themselves preparing dinner – they can get that care on the spot when they need it, where they need it and for free as part of our commitment to extending Medicare. So, that’s made a difference as well to the system. Okay. Happy to take other things.

    JOURNALIST: Have you asked for a modelling on the impacts of negative gearing, Prime Minister?

    PRIME MINISTER: Look, I’ve seen those reports and what we do is we value the Public Service. So, from time to time I’m sure the Public Service are looking at policy ideas. That’s because we value them. But we have our housing policy. It’s out there for all to see. It’s currently being blocked. At the risk of being partisan here, it’s currently being blocked by a No-alition of the Liberals, the Nationals and the Greens in the Senate. They’re blocking our Help to Buy scheme that’s about increased home ownership. They’re blocking our Build to Rent scheme. I mean, why you would block – the Greens position is that they’re blocking the Build to Rent scheme because if you have medium density housing built, it’ll be built by developers. Well, yeah, hello. I’m not sure who they think builds houses and medium density housing and increases supply. So, our focus as a Government is on supply.

    JOURNALIST: (inaudible)

    PRIME MINISTER: Sorry?

    JOURNALIST: Is your Government considering making changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions?

    PRIME MINISTER: What our Government is considering is fixing housing supply by getting our legislation through the Senate. That’s what we’re considering.

    JOURNALIST: Would you rule out changes to negative gearing and property taxes this term or next?

    PRIME MINISTER: Well, what we’re doing is doing the legislation that we have before the Senate. So, I talk about what we’re doing, not what we’re not doing. And what we’re doing, is trying to get through that legislation through the Senate.

    JOURNALIST: But just to confirm, Prime Minister, your Government has asked Treasury for modelling?

    PRIME MINISTER: No, I didn’t confirm that. Treasury, I’m sure, like other departments do a range of proposals, policy ideas. I want a Public Service that is full of ideas.

    JOURNALIST: The RBA is looking through your rebates (inaudible)?

    PRIME MINISTER: Sorry?

    JOURNALIST: The RBA is looking through your rebates. Have your attempts to get a rate cut failed?

    PRIME MINISTER: What we’ve done is to reduce inflation to half of what it was. Half of what we inherited. Now, there’ll be new figures out tomorrow, or today, actually, we will wait and see what they show in a couple of hours’ time. But we know that the last time around, the monthly figures showed a rate of 3.5 per cent. Which is half, basically, of what we inherited. And we’ve done that, putting that downward pressure on inflation, by producing two budget surpluses, turning a $78 billion deficit into a $22 billion surplus last year. And this year, the financial year just finished, another surplus that will be in double digits in terms of the figures when they’re finally released or finalised in a couple of weeks’ time. So we have as well, we indicated on Monday, that has seen debt decreased by the Commonwealth by around about $150 billion from what was predicted in PEFO, the Pre-Election Forecast, that were there in Treasury of what the former Government was going to deliver. And we’ve done all of that whilst we have given cost of living support. Whether it’s a tax cut for every taxpayer, Energy Bill Relief for every household, 500,000 Fee-Free TAFE places, Cheaper Child Care. While we have delivered all of those measures, as well as delivering important funding, such as what we’ve been able to deliver here in Tasmania. Making sure we’re working to deliver proper services in health and education. That’s what happens when you have responsible economic management. And the Reserve Bank, of course, set interest rates independent of the government – that is their job. Our job is to put downward pressure on inflation, but also look after people. We have had now 980,000 jobs created on our watch. More jobs created since I’ve been elected as Prime Minister than in every previous term of any Prime Minister since Federation. I’m very proud of that. It’s been a difficult economic task, but we have delivered what we have set out to do, which is that downward pressure on inflation whilst we’ve been helping with cost of living relief.

    JOURNALIST: On cost of living, will you introduce new cost of living measures in a pre-election Budget?

    PRIME MINISTER: Well, one of the things that we are going to do, and you will have seen on Monday when it comes to cost of living as well, is take on businesses when they’re not doing the right thing by consumers. Now, this action by the ACCC in taking Woolworths and Coles to court in order to hold them to account for what the ACCC alleges has happened. When you have a packet of Oreos lifted up in prices and by triple the amount in which they’re then decreased and a sign put on them saying that it’s a special, then that is not doing the right thing by consumers. Now people out there are under financial pressure and they’re looking for value, they’re looking for bargains. And so when they go into a supermarket and see ‘special’ or ‘prices down’, they trust that that is the truth. Now it’s not the truth if a supermarket has increased the price by $1.50 from what it was and then a month later put it down by fifty cents and purported to argue that they have decreased the price. That is a breach of trust, it’s a breach of faith. Australians are rightly angry about it, as they should be, and my Government is taking action. The ACCC are taking them to court. We have released on Monday as well exposure drafts of our changes to legislation, as well as our changes to the mandating of the code of conduct for supermarkets, as recommended by Dr Craig Emerson. It is extraordinary that under the former Government you had a voluntary code of conduct, just expecting that people would voluntarily do the right thing. Quite clearly, that’s not good enough, which is why we’re mandating. That’s a part of dealing with cost of living pressures. So we want wages to increase and we’re delivering that, including in Jason’s area, a 15 per cent increase in the wages of early educators in childcare. We have delivered a substantial increase in the wages of aged care workers. We’ve delivered tax cuts on top of that. So we want people to earn more and to keep more of what they earn. That’s all a part of our cost of living measures.

    JOURNALIST: Here in Tasmania, will you exempt the Macquarie Point Stadium from GST calculations?

    PRIME MINISTER: No.

    JOURNALIST: Why not?

    PRIME MINISTER: Because if we did that, we’d have to do the same for the Olympic sites in Queensland, for every infrastructure project in the country.

    JOURNALIST: Wasn’t that done for a stadium in Jim Chalmers electorate?

    PRIME MINISTER: We won’t, well I’m not sure what stadium with hundreds of millions of dollars you’re referring to in Jim’s electorate in Logan. I’m very familiar with the electorate. So we will be, can I make this point. We’ll be exempting this contribution to the hospital, to the Northern Tasmania Heart Centre from the GST. It’s very different. But infrastructure projects, of course, it all adds up. It all evens out. I’m not sure this is understood fully by people in these positions, but when you have the GST equalisation, if you have a proportion of funds invested around the country, then it evens itself out. This is a separate thing which we’ve agreed to exempt from the GST because it’s about healthcare. But infrastructure across the board is not exempt. I was an Infrastructure Minister for six years, I assure you there was no GST exemptions during that period.

    JOURNALIST: Prime Minister, with the Heart Centre comes a lot of money for Northern Tasmania. How concerned are you about your prospects in Lyons?

    PRIME MINISTER: I think Lyons, what I’m doing in every seat, in every state, in the one country of Australia, is governing. We’re doing things here regardless of the political colour. I don’t have a colour coded spreadsheet to determine my funding proposals. And I am working and delivering here in Northern Tasmania, in North West Tasmania, in Hobart. We’re delivering at UTAS down the road here, $65 million each to fix up UTAS and to make it into a much better stadium. We are investing in Macquarie Point, we’re investing throughout Tasmania. We’ll continue to do so and I believe there’ll be an election at some time. If you keep your eye on that white car with the little flag on the front on the day it goes to Yarralumla, then we’ll call an election sometime before, or on or before May, and we’ll put our case to the Australian people. But we have a serious plan for health, a serious plan for education, a serious plan for energy. We’re working here as well. The Marinus Link Project is a great example of the cooperation that was talked about for a long period of time. Well, myself and this Premier have actually got it done. Thanks very much.

    MIL OSI News –

  • MIL-OSI: Municipality Finance issues NOK 2 billion green bond under its MTN programme

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    Municipality Finance Plc
    Stock exchange release
    25 September 2024 at 10:00 am (EEST)

    Municipality Finance issues NOK 2 billion green bond under its MTN programme

    Municipality Finance Plc issues NOK 2 billion green bond on 26 September 2024. The maturity date of the green bond is 26 September 2029. The notes bear interest at a fixed rate of 3.666% per annum.

    The notes are issued under MuniFin’s EUR 50 billion programme for the issuance of debt instruments. The offering circular, the supplemental offering circular and the final terms of the notes are available in English on the company’s website at https://www.kuntarahoitus.fi/en/for-investors.

    MuniFin has applied for the notes to be admitted to trading on the Helsinki Stock Exchange maintained by Nasdaq Helsinki. The public trading is expected to commence on 26 September 2024.

    Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB acts as the Dealer for the issue of the notes.

    MUNICIPALITY FINANCE PLC

    Further information:

    Joakim Holmström
    Executive Vice President, Capital Markets and Sustainability
    tel. +358 50 444 3638

    MuniFin (Municipality Finance Plc) is one of Finland’s largest credit institutions. The owners of the company include Finnish municipalities, the public sector pension fund Keva and the Republic of Finland. The Group’s balance sheet totals over EUR 50 billion.

    MuniFin’s customers include municipalities, joint municipal authorities, wellbeing services counties, joint county authorities, corporate entities under the control of the above-mentioned organisations, and affordable social housing. Lending is used for environmentally and socially responsible investment targets such as public transportation, sustainable buildings, hospitals and healthcare centres, schools and day care centres, and homes for people with special needs.

    MuniFin’s customers are domestic, but the company operates in a completely global business environment. The company is an active Finnish bond issuer in international capital markets and the first Finnish green and social bond issuer. The funding is exclusively guaranteed by the Municipal Guarantee Board.

    Read more: www.munifin.fi

    Important Information

    The information contained herein is not for release, publication or distribution, in whole or in part, directly or indirectly, in or into any such country or jurisdiction or otherwise in such circumstances in which the release, publication or distribution would be unlawful. The information contained herein does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, nor shall there be any sale of, any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation or sale would be unlawful prior to registration, exemption from registration or qualification under the securities laws of any such jurisdiction.

    This communication does not constitute an offer of securities for sale in the United States. The notes have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) or under the applicable securities laws of any state of the United States and may not be offered or sold, directly or indirectly, within the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. persons except pursuant to an applicable exemption from, or in a transaction not subject to, the registration requirements of the Securities Act.

    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Asian Development Blog: The Fed Has Cut Interest Rates: What Does This Mean for Asia and the Pacific?

    Source: Asia Development Bank

    The recent interest rate cuts by the United States Federal Reserve present opportunities and challenges for central banks in Asia and the Pacific. Policymakers must adopt a balanced, country-specific approach to navigate potential inflationary pressures, exchange rate volatility, and capital inflow dynamics.

    The United States’ Federal Reserve (Fed) kicked off a long-anticipated monetary policy loosening cycle at its September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. Committee members project another 50 basis points of cuts this year, and that Fed loosening will continue in 2025.

    This could have significant consequences for the global economy, including for developing economies in Asia and the Pacific.

    Inflationary pressures in have continued declining in the region this year, as commodity prices stabilized and the lagged effects of last year’s monetary tightening took hold. As a result, most of its central banks have paused their hiking cycle, with some switching to policy rate cuts. Others may now follow suit.

     In shaping their policy stance, central banks in emerging economies need to take account of interest rate differentials with the US, which impact capital flows and exchange rates. The Fed rate cut opens up the opportunity for more of the region’s central banks to loosen policy to stimulate domestic demand and growth, without triggering capital outflows and exchange rate depreciations.

    Still, since the pace and length of the Fed loosening cycle remains uncertain, an appropriate policy response in Asia and the Pacific will require caution and a careful balancing act, for a number of reasons.

    One option for central banks is to cut rates in the wake of the Fed. This would support growth, but it may also revive price pressures and encourage excessive borrowing in economies where household and corporate debt levels are already high.

    Alternatively, central banks in the region could continue to maintain a relatively tight monetary stance—e.g., by cutting interest rates with a lag and/or less than proportionally with respect to the Fed.

    In such a case, the lower interest rates in the US could increase capital flows to Asia and the Pacific, as investors adjust their portfolios toward assets with more attractive yields. This could boost equity and bond markets across the region, providing some breathing space to more vulnerable economies.

    However, capital inflows could also present some challenges, as significant swings in short-term portfolio investment could increase financial market volatility. 

    Additionally, higher capital inflows may result in exchange rate appreciations vis-à-vis the US dollar in the region. This would benefit economies heavily dependent on oil and other commodity imports, reducing price pressures and improving trade balances. For economies with high US dollar-denominated debt, the depreciation of the US dollar would make it easier to sustain the debt burden.

    The beginning of the Fed monetary loosening cycle brings challenges and opportunities for Asia and the Pacific.

    On the other hand, exchange rate appreciations would boost imports, with potentially negative effects on current accounts. In the medium term, stronger currencies could also hamper export growth, particularly for economies reliant on exports of traditional manufacturing goods, such as garments or textiles, which depend mainly on price competitiveness.

    This variety of potential effects and channels suggests that  policy responses to the Fed loosening cycle in Asia and the Pacific will need to be country-specific and nuanced, and include a combination of the following measures.

    As well as adjusting interest rates, monetary authorities in the region could rely on targeted measures, such as on banks’ reserve requirements, to affect financial and liquidity conditions. Forward guidance can also be an effective tool to anchor inflation expectations and reduce uncertainty and financial volatility, by clearly laying out the future path of monetary policy for market participants and economic agents.

    For economies receiving increasing capital inflows, well-developed financial markets are key to absorb the inflows and turn them into productive investment in the domestic economy. Policy action should focus on increasing competition, efficiency, and transparency in the financial sector, with the central bank or other overseeing independent authority providing adequate supervision.  

    To deal with the risks associated with rising capital inflows, capital flow management measures and macroprudential policies can be used, including measures aimed at mitigating exposure to currency mismatches.  Where capital inflows result in excessive currency appreciation, targeted intervention in foreign exchange markets could help reduce volatility, while also increasing foreign exchange reserves.

    Fiscal policy could be used the cushion the impact of falling exports. Depending on fiscal space, stimulus could be directed at several objectives, including boosting consumer spending; incentivizing activity in particular sectors with stronger multiplier effects on the rest of the economy; and infrastructure, energy-saving, climate-adaptation, and other projects aimed at addressing structural gaps, which would also boost the economy’s productive potential.

    The beginning of the Fed monetary loosening cycle brings challenges and opportunities for Asia and the Pacific. Lower interest rates in the US and a weaker dollar could lower import costs, boost financial markets, and spur larger capital flows toward the region. But these positive developments would not be without risks, including possible exchange rate volatility and renewed inflationary pressures.

    Policymakers will need to adopt a flexible approach, remaining vigilant and proactive in taking advantage of the opportunities and addressing the risks.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Joint press conference, Brisbane

    Source: Australian Treasurer

    JIM CHALMERS:

    Thanks, everyone, for coming. I’m going to say a few things about the inflation number. Katy’s going to talk about inflation and the Final Budget Outcome. Then I wanted to preview my trip to China this week, and then obviously happy to take your questions.

    The new inflation numbers for August showed that headline and underlying inflation both went down substantially. Headline inflation went down from 3.5 to 2.7 per cent. This is less than half the 6.1 per cent we inherited, and it’s now less than a third of its peak.

    Trimmed mean inflation went down from 3.8 to 3.4 per cent. That is the lowest in more than 30 months. If you exclude volatile items, it went down from 3.7 to 3. Non‑tradeable inflation, which is what others call homegrown inflation, went down from 4.5 to 3.8 per cent. And services inflation went down as well.

    These are very welcome, very encouraging and very heartening numbers. We expected headline inflation to come down. We’ve also seen underlying inflation come down considerably. That’s a very good thing.

    Our policies are a factor here, but they’re not the only factor. If you look at rents, they went up 6.8 per cent in the year to August, but without our increases to rent assistance, they would have increased by 8.6 per cent. Electricity prices fell 17.9 per cent in the year to August, but without the energy rebates they would have decreased 2.7 per cent.

    But the story here goes beyond the government’s policies, which are helping in the fight against inflation. Whether it’s rent, whether it’s energy rebates, our cost‑of‑living policies are an important part of the story, but they’re not the whole story here. We’re seeing right across a number of measures of inflation, including underlying inflation, that it is has come off considerably in the new numbers that we see today.

    These are heartening numbers, encouraging numbers, they’re welcome numbers. But we’re not getting carried away because we know that the monthly numbers can be volatile. We know that inflation doesn’t always moderate in a straight line and we know that people are still under pressure. That’s why our cost‑of‑living help is so important, and it’s also why our responsible economic management is so important, and Katy’s going to say a few things about that.

    KATY GALLAGHER:

    Thanks, very much, Jim. It’s lovely to be here in your home city today.

    CHALMERS:

    You’re always welcome, Katy.

    GALLAGHER:

    It’s glorious to be here. Thanks, Jim.

    What we’re seeing is our responsible economic management is helping in the fight against inflation, and you’re seeing that in those numbers today.

    That budget management, particularly our returning revenue to the budget, findings savings in the budget and reprioritising spending, has helped us with our budget improvements that we’re seeing.

    On Monday we’ll be releasing the Final Budget Outcome. That will show our second surplus and it will be an improvement on the number that we released during the Budget. That improvement in the budget outcome is not related to increased revenue but is related to less spending on the spending side of the budget. We know from the comments that the RBA Governor has made in the past that surplus budgeting is helping in the fight against inflation. You’ll see that reflected in the FBO that we do on Monday.

    That’s really our approach to budgeting, Jim and mine – find savings, return revenue, deliver budget surpluses when the inflation challenge has been what it has. That’s helping overall in that fight against inflation.

    CHALMERS:

    I’ll just say a few things to preview meetings in China, and then we’re happy to take some questions.

    The key influences on our economy right now are the inflation that we’ve been talking about today combined with global economic uncertainty and the impact of the rate rises which are already in the system. Those 3 things are combining to slow our economy substantially.

    Particularly when it comes to the Chinese economy, we’ve seen a weakness in the Chinese economy which obviously has consequences for us. We’re not immune from weakness in the Chinese economy. That’s why it’s so important that over the next 2 days I’ll be meeting with key Chinese counterparts in Beijing.

    This is another really important step towards stabilising our economic relationship with China. This will be the first visit to China by an Australian Treasurer in 7 years. It will be part of the Albanese Government’s methodical and coordinated efforts to re‑establish dialogue with China, Australia’s largest trading partner.

    The main purpose of this visit is to co‑chair the Australian‑China Strategic Economic Dialogue with the Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission. That will happen tomorrow.

    Our relationship with China is full of complexity and it’s full of opportunity. We recognise that a more stable economic relationship between Australia and China is a good thing for Australian workers and businesses, investors and our country more broadly. That’s why just in the last week in the context of these meetings in China I’ve consulted directly with the chairs, CEOs and senior executives of major China‑facing Australian employers, including Rio Tinto, Wesfarmers, BHP, Woodside, Fortescue, Macquarie, BlueScope, HSBC, King & Wood Mallesons, Port of Newcastle, Sydney Airport, Cochlear, University of NSW and GrainCorp, and I’ve also been consulting with the Business Council of Australia.

    We believe that dialogue and engagement give us the best chance to properly manage and maximise these really important links.

    Our approach to China has been to cooperate where we can, disagree where we must, but always engage in Australia’s national interest.

    The Strategic Economic Dialogue hasn’t been convened since 2017, but our government has agreed with Chinese counterparts to restart it, and I’ll be meeting with other counterparts from the Chinese government during my 2 days of engagements as well.

    We recognise that there’s a lot at stake and a lot to gain from a more stable economic relationship with China.

    We’ve got a big opportunity to make sure that both countries benefit from the complementarity of our economies while always advancing and protecting Australia’s national interests.

    With that, I’m happy to take some questions.

    JOURNALIST:

    Will the Treasury be looking at negative gearing and capital gains tax?

    CHALMERS:

    First of all, the real story today is inflation. The story today is about a substantial moderation in headline and underlying inflation in our economy. We’ve got a housing policy, and that’s not in it. We’ve made that clear today.

    JOURNALIST:

    Did you direct Treasury, though, to look into negative gearing policy changes, perhaps to take to the election?

    CHALMERS:

    Treasury looks at all kinds of policy options all of the time. It’s not unusual for the public service – and in my case, my department, and I’m sure Katy’s department is the same – to examine issues that are being speculated about in the public or in the parliament. That’s how a good public service operates.

    JOURNALIST:

    But you’ve basically agreed with the argument that reining in negative gearing will have a negative impact on rental supplies?

    CHALMERS:

    I’m not going to engage in hypothetical impacts of hypothetical policies when we’ve already got a housing policy. We’ve got a housing policy which is about building more homes for Australians. It’s about making it easier to rent and to buy.

    We know from today’s inflation figures that we’ve taken some of the sting out of rents. But rents are still too high, and that’s because we don’t have enough homes. Our motivation throughout this has been to build more homes for Australians. That’s what our $32 billion of investment, including $6 billion in the last Budget, is all about.

    If our political opponents cared about housing, they would vote for our policies in the Senate. Instead, in their usual, characteristically destructive way, both the Greens and the Coalition are teaming up to prevent more homes being built. Building more homes is the best way to ensure that people can find a home to rent or buy.

    JOURNALIST:

    On the Stage 3 tax cuts you argued several times that the circumstances have changed and that the government has formed a different view. Can voters expect you to make that same argument on negative gearing in the lead‑up to the next federal election?

    CHALMERS:

    I’m very proud of the changes that we made to the Stage 3 tax cuts because it meant that every Australian taxpayer gets a tax cut, not just some. We explained our rationale and our reasoning for that at the time, and you referenced that in your question. The changes to Stage 3 at the beginning of this year meant that more people got a bigger tax cut to help with the cost of living. We’re proud of what we did. We were upfront and we explained that changes that we made. I think the public has recognised that we’re trying to do the right thing.

    JOURNALIST:

    Would your government consider a legitimate use of tax laws and not [indistinct] current negative gearing figures?

    CHALMERS:

    We’ve made it clear that our housing policy is all about building more homes. More homes for Australians, making it easier to rent or buy a home at a time when there aren’t enough homes. That’s what’s pushing rents up, even with our efforts, with Commonwealth Rent Assistance.

    When it comes to tax changes, our priorities have been the PRRT, the biggest balances in superannuation, tax incentives for build‑to‑rent and other tax policies that we’ve already announced.

    JOURNALIST:

    Polling does show the public is open to negative gearing changes, so why not do that?

    CHALMERS:

    We’ve got a housing policy and that’s not in it.

    Our housing policy, I’ve explained answering some of these other questions, is to build more homes for Australians – $32 billion across 20 different policies now. We’ve made it clear what our housing policy is, and we want to see it pass through the Senate. If our political opponents to the left of us and to the right of us really cared about housing, they’d support our policies in the Senate.

    JOURNALIST:

    But I guess policy‑making is dynamic, right? Why not look at negative gearing? Are you insisting that – was it either you or Minister Gallagher that asked Treasury to have a specific [indistinct] negative gearing?

    CHALMERS:

    Treasury looks at all kinds of different policies from time to time. It’s not unusual for us to get advice from departments on issues that are being speculated about in the public or in the Parliament. That’s not an especially unusual thing.

    I couldn’t haven clearer today – we’ve got a housing policy. It’s costing the budget $32 billion. We’ve found room for that even in the context of turning 2 big Liberal deficits into 2 big Labor surpluses for the reasons that Katy outlined a moment ago. We’ve got a housing policy and that’s not in it.

    It’s not unusual for governments to get advice from time to time from departments on issues which are in the public domain.

    JOURNALIST:

    Just going back to inflation, looking at that 3.4 per cent rate, do you think Michelle Bullock needs to look at cuts a bit sooner?

    CHALMERS:

    I’m not going to give free advice to the Governor of the Reserve Bank. I don’t tell Michelle Bullock how to do her job and she doesn’t tell me how to do my job, and that suits us both just fine.

    Underlying inflation has come off substantially in these new numbers today – from 3.8 to 3.4 is very encouraging, very welcome, very heartening when it comes to underlying inflation.

    I refer you back to our political opponents and critics who said that today’s numbers would only reflect the energy bill rebates, which we are proud to be delivering for every Australian household. I wanted to make a couple of points about that.

    They say that that is artificially lowering inflation. There is nothing artificial about helping people with their power bills. We know that the Liberals and Nationals don’t support that, but we’re proud to be helping people with their power bills because we know that people are under pressure. Same when it comes to Commonwealth Rent Assistance, cheaper medicines, getting wages moving again and the tax cuts.

    The other point that I would make about headline versus underlying is you may recall a couple of years ago in the former government’s last Budget they had changes to the fuel excise which had the same impact when it comes to temporarily modifying the headline inflation rate. I don’t remember them making these points then.

    We’re proud to be helping people with the cost of living. We’re proud to be doing that in the context of a responsible budget and a couple of surpluses, which our opponents were incapable of delivering after 9 attempts. We’ve gone 2 from 2.

    So we’re providing cost‑of‑living help. We’re not just seeing headline inflation coming off, we’re seeing underlying inflation coming off as well. Not just the main measure of underlying inflation, headline is down, trimmed mean is down, excluding volatile items is down, non‑tradables is down and services is down as well.

    Across the board, across the main measures, in this data today we’re seeing very welcome, very encouraging progress. We’re not getting carried away because we know that people are still under pressure. That’s why our cost‑of‑living help is so important.

    JOURNALIST:

    When do you expect to receive the Treasury advice on that negative gearing policy?

    CHALMERS:

    As I said a couple of different ways now, we get advice all of the time on different kinds of issues which are in the public domain and before the Parliament. It’s not especially unusual for the public service to be doing that. We’re not expecting one piece of work, which is implied in your question. We get briefed regularly on all sorts of policies and all kinds of issues, and that’s as it should be.

    JOURNALIST:

    I’ll just try one more time: when will Australians know if your government is going to make changes to negative gearing or capital gains reductions?

    CHALMERS:

    I’ll say the same thing I said in response to all of the other questions – and I understand why you’re asking it, I’ve got no problem with you asking these questions – but we’ve got a housing policy and that’s not in it.

    For all of the reasons I’ve gone through a few times today, we think that the highest priority needs to be building more homes. Housing supply is our big priority as a government. It’s not easy to find $32 billion in one policy area, but the fact that we’ve done that, working closely with Julie Collins and now Clare O’Neil, that demonstrates to Australians how serious we are about fixing the issue that we have with housing supply.

    You can’t click your fingers and overnight build the 1.2 million homes that we need over the next 5 years. You need to come at it in a responsible way, a considered, methodical way across a range of different policies.

    We’ve announced our policies on housing. We want to see them pass through the Parliament. We want to see the money flowing, and we want to see the houses being built, because that’s the best way we can make housing more affordable for more Australians.

    JOURNALIST:

    Is it still frustrating to see that the RBA is not taking into account the fact that electricity and fuel is coming down, but they are not enforcing these rate cuts?

    CHALMERS:

    I don’t see it that way, and for the same reasons as in my answer to your earlier question.

    I don’t second guess the decisions taken by the independent Reserve Bank or the commentary that they make about those decisions.

    It’s a good thing that Governor Bullock makes herself available and senior officials make themselves available to talk with the Australian public about how they’re seeing the economy and what that means for inflation and interest rates. That’s a good thing that they take those opportunities to do that. I don’t second guess that. I don’t parse every word that the governor says.

    We’re focused on our, and our job has been to deliver 2 big Labor surpluses, to roll out cost‑of‑living help, to be helpful in the fight against inflation.

    What we see in these numbers today – in these very welcome and encouraging numbers today – is that our policies are helping in the fight against inflation.

    That is a big part of the story but it’s not the only story. That’s why underlying inflation is coming off as well. We’re managing the economy responsibly. The Governor of the Reserve Bank has her own job to do, and it is good and welcome that Governor Bullock takes the opportunity to explain her part of it in the same way that we’ve been explaining our part of it here today.

    Thanks very much.

    MIL OSI News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Business confidence in South Africa: how a 70-year-old survey has given early signals of the economy’s pulse

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Johann Kirsten, Director of the Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch University

    Business tendency surveys provide very useful indicators of trends within an economy. The information is available well before the official statistics, such as GDP growth, and provides insights into business dynamics that cannot be found elsewhere.

    For 70 years the Bureau for Economic Research at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University has been conducting business tendency surveys. Indeed, South Africa remains one of the few countries where these surveys are conducted by a non-state agency.

    The surveys cover a range of questions, tracking everything from activity to demand, selling prices to inventories, investment and also the constraints holding back investment. But the most important question is very simple: are you satisfied with prevailing business conditions? Respondents can only respond with a yes or a no. There is no scale, no maybe, no but. It is a pure gut feeling. This is the only true measure of business sentiment in South Africa.

    While it can be argued that at times of fast production growth sentiment is more upbeat (and vice versa during a recession), sentiment typically turns before you see production growth. Respondents to Bureau for Economic Research surveys know their business like the palm of their hand. They sense when something starts changing and know when they can turn cautiously optimistic about conditions even though activity is not there (yet). As illustrated in the figure below, confidence often turns before the business cycle phase changes from an upward to a downward phase (and the other way around).

    Changes in sentiment tell us a lot about investment intentions, as well as the potential for faster economic growth and job creation in the economy. If business people in South Africa are downbeat about business conditions, it is near impossible to see growth accelerate. Why build a new factory or employ workers if you are not, at the very least, satisfied with the environment you have to operate in today?

    While the survey process has changed over the past seven decades, the value of the insights has not. South Africa’s new government of national unity has promised to tackle the country’s structural constraints, with reforms aimed at improving electricity, infrastructure, water and logistics. By providing a reliable measure of sentiment, the survey will go a long way in assessing whether they are successful.

    Business confidence ahead of economic shifts

    While we survey a range of sectors, only the responses of a specific set of sectors are compiled into the so-called composite Business Confidence Index. This index is sponsored by Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) and is known as the RMB/BER BCI.

    The index looks at the responses of manufacturers, retailers, wholesalers, new vehicle dealers and main building contractors. These sectors represent the productive sectors of the economy and tend to lead the rest of the economy.

    So, if something changes here, one can be fairly sure that it will soon start changing in the rest of the economy. Manufacturers, for example, have a feel for both domestic and export demand conditions, which later trickle through the rest of the economy. New vehicle dealers will be the first to know when local consumers start holding their purse strings.

    In most sectors the survey also asks respondents about constraints to business conditions. We ask the same set of questions each quarter and have been doing so for decades. This gives us a very powerful, long-term time series of data. For example, over the last ten years, manufacturers have almost consistently seen the general political climate as the most serious constraint on business conditions.

    The Absa Manufacturing Survey shows that it’s a more serious constraint than insufficient demand or the short-term interest rate, despite the latter being at the highest level in 15 years. Interestingly, the political climate constraint fell sharply in the third quarter of 2024, following the formation of the government of national unity. The disruptions at local ports were also picked up by our surveys, with load-shedding top of mind for many respondents in 2023 (and before).

    The graph below shows a long-term series of business confidence. A reading of 100 would signal extreme optimism with every respondent satisfied with business conditions – this has never happened before. A reading of zero means not a single respondent is satisfied with business conditions. This, too, has not happened before, but we did see confidence fall to just 5 index points in the second quarter of 2020, the worst of the COVID-19 lockdowns, with many businesses forced to close temporarily. The BER surveys provided invaluable information about business dynamics in the formal economy during the pandemic and the recovery.

    Figure 1: RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI)

    The RMB/BER BCI edged up by three index points to 38 in the third quarter of 2024. This was the first survey after the formation of the new government, and some may have hoped for a bigger boost to sentiment. Still, underlying results suggest respondents are turning cautiously more optimistic about the future. For the first time since early 2022, most respondents across the different sectors expect business conditions to improve in 12 months’ time, instead of deteriorating (further).

    Current demand conditions, however, remained tough, which held back a bigger recovery in sentiment.

    A firm commitment by the new government of national unity to continue with structural reform aimed at alleviating the constraints on the South African economy and an effort to bring down the cost of doing business (by lowering the administrative burden, for example) would go a long way in supporting a more pronounced recovery in business confidence.

    Higher confidence will translate into faster economic growth over time.

    How the index is compiled

    Taking a step back, in 1954, and for many decades after that, everything at the BER was done by hand. The surveys were sent by post, and indices were painstakingly calculated as the responses trickled in. Some graphs were even drawn up by hand. Over time, more electronics became involved. South African postal services deteriorated to such an extent that relying on them was no longer feasible.

    The little pigeonholes for the postal letters at the BER offices were removed earlier this year and all survey responses are now received via email. Responses are weighted for firm and sector size, and we try to keep the survey as representative of the sectors as possible.

    It is becoming increasingly difficult to expand our panel in a world where inboxes are flooded with fly-by-night surveys and spam. Our close relationship with international bodies such as the Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys and our academic footing as a university research institute ensures that we continue to follow global best practices.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Business confidence in South Africa: how a 70-year-old survey has given early signals of the economy’s pulse – https://theconversation.com/business-confidence-in-south-africa-how-a-70-year-old-survey-has-given-early-signals-of-the-economys-pulse-237773

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Africa: Business confidence in South Africa: how a 70-year-old survey has given early signals of the economy’s pulse

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Johann Kirsten, Director of the Bureau for Economic Research, Stellenbosch University

    Business tendency surveys provide very useful indicators of trends within an economy. The information is available well before the official statistics, such as GDP growth, and provides insights into business dynamics that cannot be found elsewhere.

    For 70 years the Bureau for Economic Research at South Africa’s Stellenbosch University has been conducting business tendency surveys. Indeed, South Africa remains one of the few countries where these surveys are conducted by a non-state agency.

    The surveys cover a range of questions, tracking everything from activity to demand, selling prices to inventories, investment and also the constraints holding back investment. But the most important question is very simple: are you satisfied with prevailing business conditions? Respondents can only respond with a yes or a no. There is no scale, no maybe, no but. It is a pure gut feeling. This is the only true measure of business sentiment in South Africa.

    While it can be argued that at times of fast production growth sentiment is more upbeat (and vice versa during a recession), sentiment typically turns before you see production growth. Respondents to Bureau for Economic Research surveys know their business like the palm of their hand. They sense when something starts changing and know when they can turn cautiously optimistic about conditions even though activity is not there (yet). As illustrated in the figure below, confidence often turns before the business cycle phase changes from an upward to a downward phase (and the other way around).

    Changes in sentiment tell us a lot about investment intentions, as well as the potential for faster economic growth and job creation in the economy. If business people in South Africa are downbeat about business conditions, it is near impossible to see growth accelerate. Why build a new factory or employ workers if you are not, at the very least, satisfied with the environment you have to operate in today?

    While the survey process has changed over the past seven decades, the value of the insights has not. South Africa’s new government of national unity has promised to tackle the country’s structural constraints, with reforms aimed at improving electricity, infrastructure, water and logistics. By providing a reliable measure of sentiment, the survey will go a long way in assessing whether they are successful.

    Business confidence ahead of economic shifts

    While we survey a range of sectors, only the responses of a specific set of sectors are compiled into the so-called composite Business Confidence Index. This index is sponsored by Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) and is known as the RMB/BER BCI.

    The index looks at the responses of manufacturers, retailers, wholesalers, new vehicle dealers and main building contractors. These sectors represent the productive sectors of the economy and tend to lead the rest of the economy.

    So, if something changes here, one can be fairly sure that it will soon start changing in the rest of the economy. Manufacturers, for example, have a feel for both domestic and export demand conditions, which later trickle through the rest of the economy. New vehicle dealers will be the first to know when local consumers start holding their purse strings.

    In most sectors the survey also asks respondents about constraints to business conditions. We ask the same set of questions each quarter and have been doing so for decades. This gives us a very powerful, long-term time series of data. For example, over the last ten years, manufacturers have almost consistently seen the general political climate as the most serious constraint on business conditions.

    The Absa Manufacturing Survey shows that it’s a more serious constraint than insufficient demand or the short-term interest rate, despite the latter being at the highest level in 15 years. Interestingly, the political climate constraint fell sharply in the third quarter of 2024, following the formation of the government of national unity. The disruptions at local ports were also picked up by our surveys, with load-shedding top of mind for many respondents in 2023 (and before).

    The graph below shows a long-term series of business confidence. A reading of 100 would signal extreme optimism with every respondent satisfied with business conditions – this has never happened before. A reading of zero means not a single respondent is satisfied with business conditions. This, too, has not happened before, but we did see confidence fall to just 5 index points in the second quarter of 2020, the worst of the COVID-19 lockdowns, with many businesses forced to close temporarily. The BER surveys provided invaluable information about business dynamics in the formal economy during the pandemic and the recovery.

    Figure 1: RMB/BER Business Confidence Index (BCI)

    Source: BER. Note, business cycle downswing phases as determined by the South African Reserve Bank are shaded.

    The RMB/BER BCI edged up by three index points to 38 in the third quarter of 2024. This was the first survey after the formation of the new government, and some may have hoped for a bigger boost to sentiment. Still, underlying results suggest respondents are turning cautiously more optimistic about the future. For the first time since early 2022, most respondents across the different sectors expect business conditions to improve in 12 months’ time, instead of deteriorating (further).

    Current demand conditions, however, remained tough, which held back a bigger recovery in sentiment.

    A firm commitment by the new government of national unity to continue with structural reform aimed at alleviating the constraints on the South African economy and an effort to bring down the cost of doing business (by lowering the administrative burden, for example) would go a long way in supporting a more pronounced recovery in business confidence.

    Higher confidence will translate into faster economic growth over time.

    How the index is compiled

    Taking a step back, in 1954, and for many decades after that, everything at the BER was done by hand. The surveys were sent by post, and indices were painstakingly calculated as the responses trickled in. Some graphs were even drawn up by hand. Over time, more electronics became involved. South African postal services deteriorated to such an extent that relying on them was no longer feasible.

    A copy of the 1955 business confidence survey results. Source: Bureau for Economic Research

    The little pigeonholes for the postal letters at the BER offices were removed earlier this year and all survey responses are now received via email. Responses are weighted for firm and sector size, and we try to keep the survey as representative of the sectors as possible.

    It is becoming increasingly difficult to expand our panel in a world where inboxes are flooded with fly-by-night surveys and spam. Our close relationship with international bodies such as the Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys and our academic footing as a university research institute ensures that we continue to follow global best practices.

    – Business confidence in South Africa: how a 70-year-old survey has given early signals of the economy’s pulse
    – https://theconversation.com/business-confidence-in-south-africa-how-a-70-year-old-survey-has-given-early-signals-of-the-economys-pulse-237773

    MIL OSI Africa –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: Richard Holden says no interest rate fall likely for 12 months

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    For many Australians, the COVID-19 pandemic has become a fading memory as the world has moved away from lockdowns and masks. However, its lasting impacts, including persistent inflation, remain.

    Academic economists Steven Hamilton and Richard Holden, in their just-published book, Australia’s Pandemic Exceptionalism, examine how Australia fared in handling the COVID crisis in its economic and health policies.

    We’re joined on the podcast by Holden to talk about the book and also Australia’s economic outlook, during what has been a big week for economic news.

    On COVID, Hamilton and Holden found a mixed picture: Australia scored highly in its economic response but fell down on its vaccine procurement and provision of RATs.

    I think Treasury gave excellent advice to the Treasurer [Josh Frydenberg]  and he not only […] took that advice but was able to sell it to a sometimes sceptical cabinet. […] So I think it was good advice and strong leadership on the economic front. On the health front, I think the advice was really quite poor at times. I mean we make quite a point of Scott Morrison’s use of the phrase when it comes to vaccines “It’s not a race” when clearly it was a race. It was a race against the virus. It was a race to get vaccinated. It was a race to be able to reopen our economy.

    On the RBA and inflation, Holden agrees with this week’s decision to hold rates but believes they should have risen earlier at least once more:

    I have argued […] that late last year or early this year, the Reserve Bank should have raised rates at least one more time to get us closer to what happened in peer jurisdictions overseas, to try and beat inflation faster. The Reserve Bank has taken a different approach. They want to have interest rates peak, maybe a full percentage point lower than in places like the US, and they’re willing to tolerate inflation for longer.

    At least they’re not caving into political pressure from people like Jim Chalmers and Wayne Swan to precipitously cut interest rates and I give the governor, Michele Bullock, great credit for standing firm on that, including in her press conference remarks [on Tuesday].

    On when interest rates will start moving down, Holden gives a grim assessment:

    My view is the most likely case is very late in 2025, somewhere about 12 months from today. Again, it’s going to depend on the inflation numbers and I’d like nothing more [than] for us to be well inside the target band and for interest rates to be able to be moderated.

    I think it’s a real shame that we took a different strategy in Australia to what peer jurisdictions overseas did, which was raise rates more aggressively, take our medicine, have tamed inflation and now be cutting rates. That’s the story in the US and several other jurisdictions.

    Holden warns against RBA Governor Michele Bullock making predictions of future rate moves:

    Governor Bullock, I think, is at risk of repeating, albeit a milder version of, the mistake that Philip Lowe made in providing forward guidance. Now it’s not as dramatic as saying interest rates are not going to rise until 2024, which was sort of three years of forward guidance or thereabouts. Governor Bullock has fallen into, I think, a little bit of a trap by saying over six weeks ago that she and her colleagues on the board didn’t think that interest rates would be cut this calendar year.

    I don’t really understand what the virtue of her doing that was. I think that was probably, in hindsight, something that she may regret. [Although] I don’t think it will do any real damage because I think it’s a prediction that’s incredibly likely to come true.  

    On the government potentially making changes to negative gearing, Holden outlines why it could be a good idea:

    Getting rid of negative gearing would put potential owner-occupiers on a level playing field with investors at an auction. I think it’ll be very good news for people trying to move from the rental market into being owner-occupiers; I think it’ll be good news for the classic Australian dream. To be fair about it, the existence of negative gearing is something that puts downward pressure on rents. So negative gearing, in a funny way, is good for renters who are always going to rent but bad for renters who want to buy. So there are pros and cons.

    It was a good idea eight or nine years ago. I think it’s still a good idea today and I think it’s interesting that the government seems to be at least floating the test balloon.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: Richard Holden says no interest rate fall likely for 12 months – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-richard-holden-says-no-interest-rate-fall-likely-for-12-months-239820

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI China: Announcement on Open Market Operations No.191 [2024]

    Source: Peoples Bank of China

    Announcement on Open Market Operations No.191 [2024]

    (Open Market Operations Office, September 25, 2024)

    In order to keep liquidity adequate at a reasonable level in the banking system at quarter-end, the People’s Bank of China conducted reverse repo operations in the amount of RMB196.5 billion through quantity bidding at a fixed interest rate on September 25, 2024.

    Details of the Reverse Repo Operations

    Maturity

    Volume

    Rate

    14 days

    RMB196.5 billion

    1.85%

    Date of last update Nov. 29 2018

    2024年09月25日

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Ignazio Cassis in Central Asia: Speech on the occasion of the Swiss National Day

    Source: Switzerland – Department of Foreign Affairs in English

    Bischkek, Swiss Embassy, 03.07.2024 – Speech by H.E. Federal Councilor Ignazio Cassis, Head of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) – check against delivery

    Benvenuto a tutti
    Bienvenue à tous et toutes
    Ich heisse alle recht herzlich willkommen

    Добро пожаловать!

    Кош келиңиздер!
     
    I would like to welcome you all to our celebration of the Swiss National Day – one month in advance, indeed, but this is the only way to catch you all here!

    This is a very special occasion that I am privileged to share with you today:
    This year, we are also celebrating the 30th anniversary of development cooperation between our countries; and the centenary of the Kara Kyrgyz Autonomous Oblast, the new beginning of the modern Kyrgyz Republic.

    A few years after that beginning, Swiss travellers started to visit your country:
    Notably the writer and photographer Ella Maillart, who is honoured in the karakul museum, and the alpinist Lorenz Saladin, who climbed Khan Tengri.
    Today, I have had the pleasure to discover a bit of your beautiful country and its many similarities with mine.  

    • We both have stunning nature and impressive mountains.
    • We are both rather small and landlocked countries;
    • We both have larger neighbours.

    Geographic, natural, cultural, ethnic, religious, and linguistic diversity has been a key asset and factor for success for Switzerland as it is for the Kyrgyz Republic.

    Our relations are fruitful and strong.
    In 2023, Switzerland was the biggest export partner of the Kyrgyz Republic.
    We have regular high-level meetings, including political consultations, and now, my visit to Bishkek.

    It was about time to come here, to strengthen our relations.

    The team at your Embassy in Switzerland and at the Swiss Embassy in Bishkek invest countless hours in nurturing our bilateral relations.

    Not to forget the personal link of friendship between our countries:

    I would like here to recognise some of my compatriots who live in Kyrgyzstan – thank you for promoting Switzerland by your presence.

    I would also like to acknowledge the role of Kyrgyzstani citizens in Switzerland in strengthening links of friendship.

    Dear Guests
    In international fora, Kyrgyzstan and Switzerland support each other.
    The most obvious example is our collaboration within the World Bank and International Monetary Fund boards.
    Yesterday, I attended the constituency meeting in Dushanbe, with participation of the Kyrgyz Republic.
    It showed me how strong our links are.

    Switzerland will stay committed to its development cooperation with the Kyrgyz Republic. We will continue to work together in the future.
    We should continue supporting the private sector, local governance and the water-energy sector, to the extent allowed by today’s trying circumstances.

    Speaking of circumstances, the stability and prosperity of our two countries strongly depend on the global balance of power.

    As a neutral country, Switzerland is a traditional partner for peace and dialogue.
    To fulfil this responsibility my country hosted the first Summit on Peace in Ukraine two weeks ago.
    We have launched a broadly supported process, where voices from all corners of the globe can discuss their ideas and points of view.
    The path to peace is long and challenging but it is in the interest of everyone – including Switzerland and Kyrgyzstan – to commit to this ambition.
    Both our countries thrive in peace, as will Ukraine and Russia when a “comprehensive, just and lasting peace” has been achieved.
     
    Ladies and Gentlemen
    On all anniversaries, it is customary to make wishes – and I have three wishes for your exceptional country:

    • May Kyrgyzstan navigate the difficult international context successfully, grounded in its neutrality.
    • May the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Tajikistan soon find a good and equitable way to resolve the outstanding border issues.
    •  May the Swiss support in the water, health, economic and local governance sectors help make my first two wishes come true!

    Чоң рахмат!
    I wish you all a wonderful anniversary evening.
    Thank you!

    Address for enquiries

    FDFA Communication
    Federal Palace West Wing
    CH-3003 Bern, Switzerland
    Tel. Press service: +41 58 460 55 55
    E-mail: kommunikation@eda.admin.ch
    Twitter: @SwissMFA

    Publisher

    Federal Department of Foreign Affairs
    https://www.eda.admin.ch/eda/en/home.html

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: NLDSL Unveils ULIP Hackathon 2.0 and launches Track Your Transport App to Tackle Key Challenges in Logistics

    Source: Government of India

    NLDSL Unveils ULIP Hackathon 2.0 and launches Track Your Transport App to Tackle Key Challenges in Logistics

    ULIP Hackathon 2.0 Registration Begins: A Platform for Innovation in Logistics and Supply Chain

    Track Your Transport App Launched to Simplify Logistics

    Posted On: 25 SEP 2024 11:49AM by PIB Delhi

    NICDC Logistics Data Services Ltd. (NLDSL) announces the launch of Unified Logistics Interface Platform (ULIP) Hackathon 2.0, a competitive event aimed at fostering innovation and developing digital solutions to tackle pressing challenges in the logistics industry. The Hackathon was officially launched at an event held under the chairmanship of Shri Rajeev Singh Thakur, Additional Secretary, Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), at Vanijya Bhawan.

    The launch event witnessed more than 1800 attendees joining the kick-off physically and virtually, reflecting widespread industry interest in the initiative. Hackathon 2.0 marks a significant step in leveraging innovation and technology to reshape and streamline India’s logistics and supply chain sector.

    Building on the success of ULIP Hackathon 1.0, which resulted in the development of cutting-edge solutions, Hackathon 2.0 invites developers, start-ups, and industry players to come together once again. The focus of this year’s hackathon is on addressing key logistics challenges such as sustainability, complex supply chain processes, unified documentation, and multimodal logistics optimization.

    Speaking on the occasion, Shri Rajeev Singh Thakur, said, “We are excited to launch ULIP Hackathon 2.0, an initiative that fosters creativity, problem-solving, and collaboration. With the tremendous success of Hackathon 1.0, we are confident that this year’s event will generate even more innovative solutions to shape the future of India’s logistics ecosystem.”

    As part of its ongoing commitment to transforming the logistics sector, NLDSL also announced the launch of the Track Your Transport (TYT) application powered by ULIP. This app is designed to empower small-scale transporters and traders by addressing various facets of logistics management, from providing tracking of cargo via all modes to verification of vehicles and drivers.  TYT eliminates the need for heavy IT infrastructure investments, making it a cost-effective and user-friendly tool for the unorganized sector.

    Shri Rajat Kumar Saini, CEO & MD, NICDC and Chairman, NLDSL highlighted that the TYT app is a key milestone in their efforts to bring digital empowerment to small traders and transporters. He stated, “The app provides the tools necessary to enhance operational efficiency and visibility, ensuring that small players can compete on a level playing field with the rest of the industry.” 

    Track Your Transport app can be accessed via the web at www.trackyourtransport.in or downloaded through Android, iOS, and Digital India App Stores.

    About ULIP:

    ULIP is a digital gateway that allows industry players to access logistics-related datasets from various Government systems through API-based integration. Currently, the platform integrates with 37 systems from 10 ministries via 118 APIs, covering over 1800 data fields. Private sector participation in ULIP has been instrumental in amplifying its impact, with over 1000 companies registered on the ULIP portal (www.goulip.in). Additionally, these companies have developed over 100 applications, leading to more than 54 crore API transactions.

    About NLDSL:

    NICDC Logistics Data Services Ltd. (NLDSL) has been at the forefront of transforming India’s logistics sector through its innovative solutions like Logistics Data Bank (LDB) and ULIP. By leveraging advanced technology, NLDSL has enhanced efficiency, transparency, and digitization within the industry.

    The company was established on December 30, 2015, with the primary objective of harnessing Information and Communication Technology (ICT) to enhance efficiency in the Indian logistics sector. It is a joint venture between Government of India represented by National Industrial Corridor Development and Implementation Trust (NICDIT) and Japanese IT major NEC Corporation.

    ***

    AD

    (Release ID: 2058492) Visitor Counter : 13

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Interaction with Forecasters & Economists on GDP and CPI held on 24th September,2024 in Mumbai

    Source: Government of India (2)

    Posted On: 25 SEP 2024 9:17AM by PIB Delhi

    Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) organized the interaction with Forecasters & Economists of GDP and CPI on 24th September,2024 in Mumbai. The interaction was attended by Shri Ajay Seth, Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, Dr. V. Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor, Shri Nilesh Shah, Member of Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of India, eminent economists – Shri Ganesh Kumar, Member, National Statistical Commission, Ms. Ila Patnaik, Former Principal Economic Advisor, Shri Deepak Mishra, Director, ICRIER among others. The event was joined by more than 50 forecasters & economists of various Organizations/Institutions such as Reserve Bank of India (RBI), Citibank, ICICI Prudential AMC, Sunidhi Securities & Finance Ltd, Bloomberg Economics, Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, Nirmal Bang, RBL Bank, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, Morgan Stanley, Nomura, ICICI Bank, ICICI Bank Ltd, etc.

    While setting the context to the event, Dr. Saurabh Garg, Secretary, Ministry of Statistics and      Programme Implementation highlighted various macro-economic indicators released by MoSPI and also updated about the Base Year revision initiated for GDP, CPI and IIP. He also appraised the participants about the newly launched eSankhyiki portal for easy access of time series data on the released indicators. Secretary, MoSPI further informed the participants that MoSPI is planning to launch web-based CAPEX survey to fill the gap in the Private Sector investment.

    This was followed by two subject specific presentation detailing present methodology and updates on base revision exercises undertaken for GDP and CPI. Dr. V Anantha Nageswaran, Chief Economic Advisor, appreciated the initiative of MoSPI for CAPEX Survey. Shri Nilesh Shah, Member, EAC-PM, MD Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Company Limited suggested MoSPI to look for avenues of improvement to ensure data accuracy and reduce time lag of release.

    Shri Ajay Seth, Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, Government of India suggested availability of timely and consistent data for better clarity, investing, business and policy decisions. He emphasized use of advanced technologies for better data governance.

    An open house discussion ensued afterwards which witnessed enthusiastic participation from the forecasters and economists. Based on the discussion, the following major suggestions emerged:

    • Frequent Household Consumption Expenditure Surveys may be conducted to ensure frequent base revision of Consumer Price Index and other macro-economic indicators. Availability of old indices for chain linking was also requested by users.
    • Spatial dimension of GDP may also be given adequate emphasis in terms of dis-aggregations like urban /rural, District domestic product etc.
    • Attempts may be made to reduce discrepancy in estimation of GDP from two approaches.
    • Possibility of better coverage of services in the revised series of CPI may be explored. Request for frequent such interactions, to understand the methodologies of data collection of education, health services and data for housing index, was also made.
    • To have a uniform understanding of core inflation, MoSPI may explore compilation of Core inflation
    • Lag for GDP data release may be reduced. Release time of these indices may be changed to provide sufficient time for analysis by the users on the same day.
    • Employer provided dwellings may be excluded from CPI to ensure consistency in the data. The methodology for compilation of Housing index may be re-visited.

    The participants commended the initiative of MoSPI for organizing this interaction which provided greater clarity and better understanding among users and suggested MoSPI to organize frequent interactions.

    ****

    MG/SB/DP

    (Release ID: 2058437) Visitor Counter : 35

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Text of the Vice-President’s address at the 2nd edition of Uttar Pradesh International Trade Show at Gautam Buddha Nagar, Uttar Pradesh

    Source: Government of India

    सभी को नमस्कार, 

    The largest state of the Union is blossoming and flourishing under his dynamic governance. Yogiji has turned out to be a game changer for this state, and that will help the nation. I am particularly amazed at his 24×7 watchdog governance. 

    Personally, for me, this is an absolute delight to be at the inaugural ceremony of the second edition of UP International Trade Show 2024. I had the good occasion to go around and see for myself. There could not be a greater assurance for a man like me that all is well, things are on the right track. What I witnessed was beyond my concept, imagination, and dream. I felt I was in the most developed country in the world.

     This is indeed a very well-thought-out platform that not only showcases what is there in India, in Uttar Pradesh, it affords an opportunity for people to snatch those opportunities, to be in touch with the best minds, the artisans, the skilled workers, the products, and personally flourish. My congratulations to the Honourable Chief Minister for being so thoughtful, farsighted, and practical.

     The beginning was made for the first edition by the Honourable President of India, Smt. Droupadi Murmu Ji and in this context, it is my absolute privilege to be part of the second. We are indeed very happy that the trade show will significantly showcase Vietnam as a partner country. As one of Southeast Asia’s robust economies, Vietnam has an impressive GDP of 435 billion US dollars, and we look forward to witnessing their exceptional products and innovative manufacturing practices but I can assure them, they are in the right place, their participation will enormously benefit them and their people to fully exploit their talent and connect with the best artisans and economic potential.

     Friends, this will also be an occasion to get a feel for the rich cultural heritage of Vietnam. They will, ofcourse, everyone will feel the rich heritage of Uttar Pradesh and Bharat, but we will also get a feel for the rich heritage of Vietnam. I had the occasion to have a look at it, full display through captivating traditional music and what a similarity there was with Indian instruments. I am sure there will be enough for them to carry home. The dance performances, it was enriching.

    And it is a state which, in the last few years, is seeing the happiness factor rising. When the happiness factor rises, your appetite is functional.

     My friends from Uttar Pradesh and all over the country who are here will have the occasion to indulge in authentic Vietnamese cuisine. Renowned for its unique flavours, when we look at Vietnam, the savoury delights of Pho and its spring rolls to the mouth-watering Banh Mi, our palates will be treated to a culinary journey. I have had the occasion to know about them and taste them.

    This, in a sense, is a natural partnership if we go into a historical perspective, will surely foster cultural and economic challenges collectively. The exchanges will be rewarding, further enhancing our bilateral relations and strengthening the resolve for a greater role for the Global South in international affairs. 

    It was the visionary leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, that at the G20 platform, he brought on the international radar, the voice of Global South. This is an important event, their participation is memorable, and I am sure they will carry happy memories of this event.

    The exhibition — the scale, the display, the technological penetration, the cultural wealth, each district’s products. I instructed my team that they will, at the micro level, handle each store, each product, so that the nation comes to know it through Sansad TV. Mr. Chief Minister will seek your cooperation. My team will be here this evening. 

    Friends, the synergy between the Prime Minister of India, his vision, coupled with the Honourable Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi’s execution, sharp execution, execution which has no accommodation for corruption, no tolerance for inefficiency, this has transformed Uttar Pradesh into Uttam Pradesh. The sustained efforts of Yogiji are leading to another milestone development and achievement, soothing to the entire nation, Uttar Pradesh is fast becoming Udyam Pradesh of the country. 

    This venue is very soothing for development. This venue was also witness to the recently concluded SEMICON India 2024 conference, where the Honourable Prime Minister outlined India’s vision of making the semiconductor industry, and that is going to be the foundation of Viksit Bharat. The conference was a crucial step towards realising India’s goal of becoming a global hub for semiconductor manufacturing.

     Let me, friends, come to the state of the nation, the state of Bharat. For ages, India has been the cradle of civilisation, a crucible of innovation, and a global hub of learning. Our Vedas are a gold mine of knowledge and information. India takes pride in being one of the oldest civilisations with 5,000 years of civilisational ethos. We lost our way somewhere in between, but now we are on our way to regaining it  and that too fast enough to be a beacon for the planet in several ways in this century. 

    Nothing can be more satisfying for me to note than that in this regaining, the largest state of the union, under the leadership of Yogi Adityanath, is playing with the straight bat on the front foot to deliver for the nation. Look at a decade ago; the scenario was alarmingly worrisome. The economy was staggering, and the mood of the nation was shaky. From every aspect, governance was challenging for the citizens but what a 360-degree change, soothingly. 

    The last decade is marked by unprecedented transformation — a transformation for the better. Bharat has emerged as the most buoyant economy in the world. It is now the favourite global destination for investment and opportunity, with an ecosystem of hope and possibility all-pervasive in India. Undoubtedly, we are set to regain our pristine glory. India is now a global happening place, and Uttar Pradesh is bubbling with activity. Activity in every sector: infrastructure, growth, industry, and innovation. 

    Today, Bharat is a near 4 trillion dollar economy that has 8% growth prospects for decades to come,  world institutions have analysed. In 2 years, our economy will march ahead of that of Japan and Germany to be the world’s third-largest economy. Incremental infrastructure growth is reflected in 8 new airports annually. The Honourable Chief Minister has indicated the scenario here. Unbelievable achievement! Look at the express highways, virtually doubling, and the state will be on the global map when it comes to the world-class largest airport in Jewar.

     It’s a state where dreams are fructified into ground realities. That’s what I’ve seen. Every 2 years, 3 or 4 metro systems are getting added. Friends, there is daily laying of 28 km of highways and 12 km of railway tracks. In PM Modi’s third term, historic term, 12 new industrial zones are taking shape to boost manufacturing. The nation is fully geared to tap the benefits of artificial intelligence, of electric mobility, green hydrogen, space, and semiconductors. For want of time, I am not focusing on it, but we are among the few countries focusing on the green hydrogen mission, quantum computing. We are in single digits when it comes to the exploitation of 6G technology commercially.

     The journey towards Viksit Bharat is well on track. It will fructify in 2047, if not earlier. The mood of the nation is now one of hope and possibility, with accolades pouring in from global institutions. 

    I have had a long political career, having been elected to Parliament in 1989 and a minister in 1990. The World Bank and IMF are praising us to heights, and rightly so. 

    Based on factual premise, our digitisation and technological penetration is turning out to be a global model for emulation. A decade of Make in India initiative has yielded significant results. Following successes in agriculture and services, India is now poised for manufacturing growth. State governments, UP being in the lead, are competing to attract investments by improving business conditions. 

    Sir, nothing is more important for investment than law and order. Law and order defines democracy and the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath defines law and order. It is in this soothing ecosystem that UP has emerged as an MSME hub by leveraging the sector strengths to create a robust supply chain.

    Technology has enabled greater participation from skilled youth in tier two town and rural areas. 

    Imagine skill mapping, skill mapping during challenging, daunting days of COVID-19. You did it. 

    Bharat is now frog leaping from Make in India to conceptualise, design and make in India. We are having our own concept of evolution. We are engaged in design and Make in India. It is encouraging to see multinationals and Indian companies getting in a synergetic stance. They are establishing innovation centres nationwide. Uttar Pradesh is a shining example of it, the defence corridor being one. 

    Micro, small and medium enterprises are much beyond their nomenclature, as I said earlier. This segment is the spine of the economy and a major contributor of human resource employment. 

    Coming to Uttar Pradesh, I state, with that kind of history, cultural background was plagued with law and order challenges, and atmosphere of fear. 

    Not long ago, growth prospects were all time low. And this state now is a beacon of progress and development. The long, long dark tunnel was negotiated with great speed by the Honourable Chief Minister. And there is great light at the end of the tunnel. The tunnel is much behind. From the tunnel, the dark tunnel, the state is on the expressway. 

    On the way to take a flight for higher economy on the largest airport that is coming up in Jewar. The state is full of hope and possibility. The transformation is unbelievable. Normally, people would not undertake it. They would get adjusted to the status quo. Because the challenge was really very, very, very, very daunting. 

    In a sense, there is a complete makeover of Uttar Pradesh. You are regaining its pristine glory in every sense. Because the governance exemplifies transparency, accountability, worth emulation, the kind of handholding of the entrepreneur. 

    And corruption is a word unheard in Uttar Pradesh. Power corridors are fully sanitised. Decisions are fast-tracked and duly tracked. 

    The state is now turning out to be a great strength to the nation. In phenomenal economic upsurge and unprecedented infrastructure growth in the nation, the largest state of Uttar Pradesh is now an asset and a major contributor unlike a scenario that existed a few years ago. 

    Uttar Pradesh aspires and rightly so, and why not? To reach the target of $1 trillion economy by 2027 and will be mightily adding to the dream of Prime Minister Modi to his $5 trillion economy by 2027. As rightly focused by the Honourable Chief Minister, Uttar Pradesh’s advantages include fertile land, young population, religious tourism, and MSMEs. And look at the size of MSMEs. 

    Some countries in the world may not have that population. As you have a number of units, the massive focus on infrastructure, one has to see to believe it. It’s easier to say that yes, six new expressways are being added. 

    It takes time, planning, execution, and funds. This is happening. All this has a Yogi multiplier, Yogi effect, Yogi impact. 

    Noida contributes 10% of U.P. GDP, I’m told, is crucial for economic growth in the industrial base, IT sector, and upcoming projects like Jewar Airport and Film City. But this city has emerged as one of the leading habitations at a global level. The kind of talent that is there in Noida, I know for sure, I come from the legal profession. 

    It’s becoming a favourite destination. Uttar Pradesh, no longer a sleeping giant, no longer a state with a promise. It’s a state in action with its vast resources, burgeoning population, and strategic location. It’s a growth engine in itself, and tied to the larger growth engine of the nation to take the nation forward. 

    I am particularly impressed by the inclusive growth in the country under Prime Minister Modi’s vision. He believes in a plateau kind of a growth. Everyone has to rise in every sector, every social element. U.P. is in line with it. 

    The trade show focuses on a great opportunity for everyone for boosting MSMEs, promoting geographical indications, and GI products. It was with utmost reluctance that I moved fast. Otherwise, one geographical indicator was good enough to take a few hours. Because it has enormous potential of opportunities. What I saw today was not an exhibition. I saw a basket of opportunities for all. 

    This event, friends, aligns with Prime Minister Modi’s vision of an Atma Nirbhar Bharat and embraces the motto, local to global. 

    India’s progress is evident in various sectors. But this is the right epicentre to take it to the next level, local to global. First it was vocal for local, now local to global. 

    I wouldn’t take long, but India is on the rise as never before. The rise is unstoppable. If I quickly take you, metro services have expanded from five cities to 23. 

    We have the world’s second largest metro network. The number of cities with airports has doubled from 70 to 140. India is now the largest connected nation globally with over 800 million broadband users. Digital technologies have enabled initiatives like housing for 170 million, health coverage for 60 million, and loans for 58 million small businesses annually. India records the highest digital financial transactions globally with 13 billion transactions per month. The country boasts the world’s third largest startup ecosystem with 107 unicorns and the third largest purchasing power in the world. 

    The semiconductor industry, which is very critical. It was here that the beginning was made by the Honourable Prime Minister. It is poised by 2026 to surpass 55 billion. I have no doubt this century belongs to Bharat. This century rightly belongs to Bharat. And that being the situation, let us all get together, ladies and gentlemen, because along with Bharat, we are witnessing a new dawn of Uttar Pradesh, a future where the nation stands tall as a global leader in trade, innovation, and cultural heritage. Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath has painstakingly brought about 360 degree improvement. Not easy. I feel tasked. He brought it about in law and order, in development, in cultural revolution, in giving skill to the people, and in bringing happiness to the people. The vision of Prime Minister Modi and passion of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath are in synergy, preparing this transformation towards the grand mission of a Viksit Bharat by 2047. I have no doubt that this trade show will be a beacon of opportunity, collaboration, and success in our journey ahead. 

    And friends, I conclude by an appeal. एक बहुत बड़ा महायज्ञ भारत में हो रहा है, यह महायज्ञ विकसित भारत के लिए हो रहा है। यह महायज्ञ की पूर्ण आहुति आजादी की शताब्दी का जब महोत्सव होगा तब होगी। इसमें हर किसी को आहुति देनी है और आहुति देने के लिए संकल्प की आवश्यकता है की हम भारतीय हैं, भारतीयता हमारी पहचान है, राष्ट्रवाद हमारा धर्म है। We can never put self or political interest over nationalism.

     

    Thank you so much.

     

    ****

    JK/RC/SM

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Economy – KOF Economic Forecast, autumn 2024: Lack of recovery in Europe clouds prospects for the Swiss economy

    Source: KOF Economic Institute

    The economic recovery in Switzerland and internationally is sluggish. The KOF expects real sports-adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) to increase by 1.1% in 2024. Weak investment is holding back growth, while the pharmaceutical industry is providing a boost. Sports-adjusted GDP will increase by 1.6% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026. The main reason for the gloomy outlook is the economic weakness in Europe – for instance in Germany, Switzerland’s most important trading partner.

    Export industry suffers from lack of demand from abroad – domestic consumption provides support

    The economic recovery in Switzerland is progressing more slowly than expected. The lack of stimulus from abroad in particular prevent the Swiss economy to fully utilise its production potential in the forecast period. The euro area is struggling to gain momentum. Above all, there are no signs of a significant economic recovery in Germany. In addition, momentum in the USA will slow in the near future. As a result, the Swiss export industry is suffering, particularly the tech industry, while the pharmaceutical industry is one of the few positive exceptions. Swiss exports in total (goods and services) will virtually stagnate until spring and only pick up speed after the first quarter of 2025.

    The weakness in equipment investment remains pronounced. It is only towards the end of the year that they will develop a little more momentum. Bright spots in Switzerland are the solid development of the labour market and the easing of inflation. Private consumption continues to support the economic development and public consumer spending is also making a positive growth contribution this year. Public consumer spending will remain stable over the remainder of the forecast period.

    GDP growth will be less dynamic in the years ahead

    According to the KOF forecast, real Swiss GDP will increase by an annual average of 1.1% this year if major sporting events such as the European Championships in Germany and the Olympic Games in Paris are excluded (1.5% including sporting events). Next year, GDP growth will be 1.6% after adjusting for sporting events (1.2% including sporting events). In its current forecast, the KOF extends the forecast period to 2026 and assumes that GDP will increase by 1.7% (excluding sporting events; 2.1% including sport events) in 2026, a similar rate to the previous year.

    Employment continues to grow – higher real wages allow scope for additional spending

    Employment growth will continue at a solid pace not only in the short term, but also over the next two years. The KOF expects employment to increase by 1% in 2025. This growth is slightly below the medium-term average rate. For 2026, job growth is expected to be almost as high at 1.1%. The unemployment rate will tend to rise slightly but steadily over the forecast period. However, with rates of 2.7% and 2.8% (according to SECO) and 4.6% and 4.7% (according to ILO) in 2025 and 2026, unemployment will not rise at an above-average rate.

    After two years of declines, real wages will rise again this and in the next two years, allowing scope for additional spending. These developments, the solid labour market and high population growth mean that private consumption will remain an important pillar of the Swiss economic development. Depending on how the 13th AHV is financed, it could also provide a small boost to private consumption towards the end of the forecast period.

    Inflation decreases below 1% – further interest rate cuts by the SNB expected

    Inflation will continue to weaken in the forecast period, so that inflation is likely to be 1.2% this year and 0.7% in each of the next two years. While prices for goods and energy have fallen, price increases for services are above average. In view of the disinflationary trend, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will lower its key interest rates further. The KOF anticipates an interest rate cut of 25 basis points in September and a further cut of the same magnitude in December, bringing the key interest rate down to 0.75%.

    Significant forecast risks due to geopolitical conflicts – Swiss franc could appreciate

    In view of the geopolitical tensions in various regions of the world, the risks to the forecast are currently considerable. The war in Ukraine, but especially the conflict in the Middle East, could have a strong impact on both economic development and inflation if it escalates further. The supply and prices of energy commodities could react strongly. The exchange rate of the Swiss franc is likely to react to a further escalation with an appreciation.

    MIL OSI – Submitted News –

  • MIL-OSI Africa: National Bank of Malawi Plc Secures landmark US$100 million financing facility from Afreximbank to support trade finance

    Source: Africa Press Organisation – English (2) – Report:

    CAIRO, Egypt, September 25, 2024/APO Group/ —

    In a move set to significantly boost trade financing in Malawi, African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) (www.Afreximbank.com) has signed a landmark US$100-million Trade Finance Facilitation Facility (AFTRAF) agreement with National Bank of Malawi (NBM) Plc, the country’s largest bank by assets.

    Representing the largest AFTRAF facility ever to be extended by Afreximbank in Malawi, the US$100-million AFTRAF agreement will enhance and maximize the capacity of NBM Plc to finance trade transactions of its clients in the manufacturing, energy and agriculture sectors.

    Additionally, it will allow NBM Plc to issue letters of credit confirmed by Afreximbank, addressing the difficulty posed by a shortage of confirming banks lines. It will also support the importation of critical goods required by Malawi, including intermediate products for the manufacturing sector, fuel, pharmaceuticals and fertiliser.

    The signing ceremony was held at Afreximbank’s headquarters in Cairo on September 24, 2024. Mr. Haytham ElMaayergi, Executive Vice President, Global Trade Bank Africa at Afreximbank and Mr. Harold Jiya, Chief Executive Officer, NBM Plc inked the deal on behalf of their respective organisations.

    In his comments during the signing ceremony, Mr. ElMaayergi said: “Our support to National Bank of Malawi through the Afreximbank Trade Facilitation “AFTRAF” programme will have a significant impact on Malawi’s strategic sectors including manufacturing, agriculture and energy, by empowering them to import inputs and components to generate value-added exports.” He added, “this partnership seeks to sustain supply chains of these sectors to enhance the foreign exchange earning capacity of the country.”

    Mr. El Maayergi added that the collaboration is expected to boost intra- and extra-African trade across NBM’s expanding geographical footprint in the southern African region by supporting corporates with financing products as well as capacity building.

    On his part, National Bank of Malawi plc CEO, Mr Harold Jiya said the credit line is a huge step forward for the Bank and, more importantly, for the people of Malawi.

    He explained: “This partnership will allow us to provide more financing solutions, especially for businesses engaged in international trade. As a Bank, we are committed to making international trade easier and more affordable for our customers. The Afreximbank credit line will help reduce the risks and costs associated with cross-border transactions, giving businesses of all sizes—from large corporations to small enterprises—access to the tools they need to thrive.”

    NBM plc is an Afreximbank Trade Finance Intermediary, which allows it to collaborate with Afreximbank on transactions. It is currently in the process of reprofiling itself into a regional bank.

    MIL OSI Africa –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Governor Newsom announces appointments 9.24.24

    Source: US State of California 2

    Sep 24, 2024

    SACRAMENTO – Governor Gavin Newsom today announced the following appointments:

    Steve Juarez, of Truckee, has been appointed to the California State Teachers’ Retirement Board. Juarez served as a Deputy State Treasurer at the California State Treasurer’s Office from 2016 to 2018. He was Associate Vice President of State Government Relations for the University of California from 2008 to 2016. Juarez was a Senior Investment Banker at J.P. Morgan from 2006 to 2008. He was Director of Financial Management for the J. Paul Getty Trust from 1998 to 2006. Juarez was Associate Vice Chancellor of Government and Community Relations for the University of California, Los Angeles from 1996 to 1998. He was Chief Legislative Representative for the County of Los Angeles in 1995. Juarez was Executive Director of the California Debt Advisory Commission from 1991 to 1995 and Principal Committee Consultant in the California State Assembly from 1987 to 1991. Juarez was Manager of Government Relations for the Los Angeles County Transportation Commission from 1984 to 1987. He was a Program Analyst in the Legislative Analyst’s Office from 1981 to 1984. Juarez is Chair of the National Association of Counties EDGE Board of Directors and a member of the California Museum and Keep Tahoe Blue Board of Directors. He earned a Master of Public Administration degree from the University of Southern California and a Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science from the University of California, Los Angeles. This position requires Senate confirmation and the compensation is $100 per diem. Juarez is a Democrat. 

    Derek Urwin, of San Clemente, has been appointed to the Occupational Safety and Health Standards Board. Urwin has been an Assistant Adjunct Professor in the Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry at the University of California, Los Angeles since 2022. He has been Chief Science Advisor at the International Association of Fire Fighters since 2021. Urwin has been a Firefighter and Engineer at the Los Angeles County Fire Department since 2010. He was a Firefighter at Miami-Dade Fire Rescue from 2007 to 2010. Urwin is a member of the Los Angeles County Firefighters IAFF Local 1014. He earned a Doctor of Philosophy degree and a Master of Science degree in Chemistry from the University of California, Los Angeles and a Bachelor of Science degree in Applied Mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles. This position does not require Senate confirmation and the compensation is $100 per diem. Urwin is registered without party preference.

    Sandra Sims, of Los Angeles, has been appointed to the Baldwin Hills Conservancy Governing Board. Sims has been a Human Resources Business Partner and Personnel Manager for the University of California, Los Angeles since 2023. She was a Human Resources Manager for Long Beach City College from 2021 to 2023. Sims was a Freelance Reporter and Writer with various news publications from 2016 to 2021. She was a Principal Analyst and Policy Human Resources Analyst for the Los Angeles County Department of Human Resources from 2007 to 2016. Sims was a Civil Service Advocate for the Department of Children and Family Services at the Los Angeles County Department of Human Resources from 2006 to 2007. She is a member of the Screen Actors Guild-American Federation of Television and Radio Artists. Sims earned a Juris Doctor degree from the University of California College of the Law, San Francisco and a Bachelor of Arts degree in Political Science from the University of California, Los Angles. This position does not require Senate confirmation and the compensation is $100 per diem. Sims is a Democrat. 

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  • MIL-OSI Economics: Swaminathan J: Reaching the unreached – ensuring last mile connectivity of banking services

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Regional Director of RBI for Karnataka, Smt. Sonali Sen Gupta; Chief General Manager, NABARD, Shri KVSSLV Prasada Rao; Chief General Manager, Canara Bank and Convenor, SLBC Karnataka, Shri K.J. Shrikanth; Area Heads of Union Bank of India and Bank of Baroda, senior executives from banks; Lead District Managers (LDMs); District Development Managers (DDMs); LDOs and other officers of RBI, present here. Ellarigu Namaskara and a very good morning to all.

    Let me begin by complimenting Bengaluru Regional Office of the Reserve Bank of India for organising this conference with an apt theme – Reaching the Unreached – Ensuring Last Mile Connectivity of Banking Services. The theme reminds us that financial inclusion is an ongoing journey. While significant progress has been made in this journey, there is still some distance to be traversed. I must also thank the Bengaluru Regional Office for selecting this place, Hubballi, for this conference, a place where I served as a young officer of State Bank of India, some thirty years ago – which brings back lots of nostalgic memories of the basic banking that we used to do over three decades ago.

    India’s journey towards inclusive development after independence has been marked by several initiatives aimed at reducing poverty and improving living standards. Measures like expanding access to essential services such as education, healthcare and sanitation, and creating productive employment opportunities for all sections of the population have seen tremendous progress. Ensuring that the benefits of economic growth are shared by all segments of society, including marginalised groups has been the cornerstone of these initiatives. It has been a multifaceted journey with significant achievements in terms of economic growth, poverty alleviation, improvements in education and health care, etc.

    In the relatively early days of this journey, the Lead Bank Scheme was institutionalised in 1969 and since then the Scheme has served as an important tool in enhancing credit flow to the sectors that have been identified as national priority and to the underserved population of the country, boosting economic growth at all levels, e.g., block level, district level and state level.

    Over more than half a century since its inception, the Scheme has evolved in line with the development agenda for the country. The Lead Bank Scheme relies on a co-ordinated approach at all levels amongst banks, financial institutions and the government machinery for effective delivery of banking services to all sections of the economy. This co-ordinated approach has yielded significant results in terms of expanding banking access and improvement in the flow of priority sector credit.

    More recently it has also led to the expansion of digital payments with SLBCs taking the lead role in the objective of making every district in the country digitally enabled. I am happy to note that 354 districts are now digitally enabled. Ten states including Karnataka and six Union Territories have achieved 100 per cent coverage of districts under this initiative.

    Indeed, the Lead Bank Scheme can be a powerful tool to bring about transformative change. As LDMs, DDMs and LDOs, you are the very pillars on which this scheme rests, playing a crucial role in driving financial inclusion at grassroots level. Your efforts in extending banking services and credit access to underserved regions would undoubtedly bring immense satisfaction to all involved. Having served as the Convenor for the SLBC in Telangana, I can personally attest to the deep fulfilment that comes from making a tangible difference in people’s lives through the LBS fora.

    A common question we face is, are we doing enough? How much more remains to be done? In 2021, the Reserve Bank introduced the Financial Inclusion Index (FI-Index), which tracks progress across 97 indicators in three key dimensions: (i) Access (ii) Usage (iii) Quality. The Index which was at 53.9 in March 2021 now stands at 64.2 for March 2024 as a testimony to the efforts that has been put in by all of you.

    India has made significant strides in enhancing ‘access’ to banking and financial services, reaching even the most remote areas. However, there is still considerable ground to cover in deepening financial inclusion. This requires greater focus on promoting ‘usage’ and improving the ‘quality’ of services. In both these critical areas, the role of Lead District Managers from the banks and District Development Managers from NABARD is indispensable.

    In this context, I would like to outline a few key expectations.

    Know your district well

    Firstly, it is imperative that you cultivate a deep understanding of your respective districts-so, you should truly ‘Know Your Districts’ well. This knowledge will form a solid foundation for comprehensive district profiles, covering a wide range of critical data. Such profiles could include detailed demographic information, agricultural trends, banking penetration and activities, industrial profiles, and the various performance metrics under the Annual Credit Plans (ACP).

    Knowing your districts well, you can leverage upon data analytics and field surveys to gain insights into economic activities, local credit needs, and barriers to credit access. A holistic understanding of your district will enable you to identify gaps in financial inclusion, assess the credit needs of different sectors, and design targeted strategies for intervention. It will also help you to identify the root causes of the various issues observed in your districts. By staying attuned to your districts, you can provide invaluable feedback to the SLBCs, enabling the formulation of targeted and effective credit plans, and foster sustainable economic growth and development.

    Formulation of targeted and effective credit plans, a bottom up approach

    Secondly, building upon your strong understanding of your district, the formulation, monitoring, and implementation of Credit Plans must follow a granular bottom-up approach.

    The principal phase of credit planning is done by DDMs by preparing the Potential Linked Credit Plans (PLPs) for all the districts in the State by mapping credit potential under Priority Sector Lending (PSL). The preparation of PLPs involves assessment of block-wise and sector-wise potential. LDMs conceptualise the block credit plans at the grassroots level which aggregate into district credit plans, ultimately converging to shape the comprehensive state-level Annual Credit Plan. While doing so, target setting for credit disbursement needs to be aspirational while being realistic. LDMs must take into account the scope for lending indicated in the Potential Linked Plan as well as the past record of achievement in credit disbursement while formalising the credit plans for the blocks and districts under their charge.

    Address the gaps

    Thirdly, we need to address the remaining gaps. Although credit delivery to priority sectors has progressed over time, there is still significant work to be done especially with regard to Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises. Similarly, nearly half of Self-Help Groups (SHGs) are yet to be linked to formal credit, and a large proportion of small and marginal farmers still lack access to bank financing. Therefore, we must factor in the credit requirements of these segments in PLPs as well as in block and district-level credit strategies.

    MSMEs are crucial to India realising her demographic dividend. One of the key requirements in this regard is increasing the female labour participation rate. Various studies1 have shown that businesses with at least one women founder have a more inclusive work culture, employ more women than men and generate more revenue. However, less than 20 per cent of MSMEs are owned by women. Women entrepreneurs often encounter major hurdles, such as limited access to funding, societal barriers, and challenges in obtaining affordable finance.

    It is therefore crucial to bridge the gender gap. At the district level, this can be addressed by offering support to women-led enterprises through government-sponsored programmes and tailored banking schemes for women-owned businesses. Additionally, efforts must be made to raise awareness among potential women entrepreneurs about these opportunities and provide them with necessary guidance and support.

    Financial literacy

    Fourthly, we need to bolster financial literacy. Strengthening the supply-side is crucial, but holistic financial inclusion also necessitates demand-side initiatives. Financial literacy stands as a fundamental building block. It is not just about access, it is about empowering individuals to make informed choices. Financial literacy is the ability of people to understand and effectively use various financial skills, including personal financial management, budgeting, and investing.

    Members of public should be made aware of various financial products available to them, be it social security products such as insurance and pension schemes, which will cover their risks or loan products with significant subsidies that will enable them to undertake productive economic activities. A special focus needs to be given to Digital Financial Literacy for improving public confidence in undertaking digital transactions. This will enable banks to explore avenues for wider adoption of fintech, to provide seamless and frictionless credit.

    At the block level, financial literacy is being promoted through Centres for Financial Literacy (CFLs), established by NGOs with funding support from the RBI, NABARD, and banks. The reach of CFLs has expanded significantly, with 2,421 CFLs now operating across almost every block in the country. In Karnataka alone, 79 CFLs and 177 Financial Literacy Centres (FLCs) are spreading awareness of financial products at the grassroots level. LDMs must play a crucial role in ensuring that FLCs perform their functions effectively, supporting CFLs, participating in CFL camps, and facilitating the linkage of financial services while overseeing the proper conduct of these camps.

    In conclusion, I encourage you to give your best, set exemplary standards, and become pioneers in developmental activities, ensuring continued progress of your districts and the State of Karnataka.

    As you may be aware, the Reserve Bank of India is celebrating 90 years of its foundation this year. Looking ahead to the next decade, our journey towards RBI@100, we have formulated strategies aimed at positioning the Reserve Bank as a model central bank of the Global South. One of our key objectives is to deepen financial inclusion by enhancing the Accessibility, Availability, and Quality of financial services for all segments of society. I urge each of you to actively support us in realizing this vision by contributing to inclusive growth, ensuring that no one is left behind in accessing essential financial services, and fostering economic empowerment at the grassroots level.

    I would like to leave you with a quote from Rashtrakavi Kuvempu (an extract from his epic work “Malegaḷalli madumagaḷu”):

    ಇಲ್ಲಿಯಾರೂ ಮುಖ್ಯರಲ್ಲ
    Illi yaaroo mukhyaralla
    No one is precious here

    ಯಾರೂ ಅಮುಖ್ಯರಲ್ಲ
    Yaroo amukhyaralla
    No one is unimportant here

    ಇಲ್ಲಿ ಎಲ್ಲಕ್ಕೂ ಇದೆ ಅರ್ಥ
    Illi ellakkoo ide artha
    Everything has significance here

    ಯಾವುದೂ ಅಲ್ಲ ವ್ಯರ್ಥ
    Yavudoo alla vyartha
    Nothing is useless

    ನೀರೆಲ್ಲವೂ ತೀರ್ಥ!
    Neerellevoo theertha!
    All the water is holy!

    In the context of today’s gathering, it would mean: All groups of people are equally important and should be financially included; every effort taken for financial inclusion is meaningful and nothing goes wasted.

    With this I would like to end with my best wishes to each one of you. Thank you!

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Kazuo Ueda: Japan’s economy and monetary policy

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Introduction

    It is my great pleasure to have the opportunity today to exchange views with a distinguished gathering of business leaders in the Kansai region. I would like to take this chance to express my sincerest gratitude for your cooperation with the activities of the Bank of Japan’s branches in Osaka, Kobe, and Kyoto. I look forward to hearing your candid opinions, which will be useful in the Bank’s policy decisions and business operations.

    Before hearing from you, I would like to talk about developments in Japan’s economic activity and prices and explain the Bank’s thinking on the conduct of monetary policy.

    I. Economic Activity and Prices

    Current Situation of and Outlook for Economic Activity

    Let me start by talking about the current situation of and outlook for economic activity in Japan. As shown in Chart 1, real GDP for the April-June quarter of 2024 increased clearly. The Bank assesses that the economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part, and expects that it will continue to recover moderately.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Michelle W Bowman: Recent views on monetary policy and the economic outlook

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Good morning. I would like to thank the Kentucky Bankers Association for the invitation to join you today for your annual convention.1 I appreciate the opportunity to share my views on the U.S. economy and monetary policy before we engage on community banking issues and other matters affecting the banking industry.

    In light of last week’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, I will begin my remarks by providing some perspective on my vote and will then share my current views on the economy and monetary policy.

    Update on the Most Recent FOMC Meeting

    In order to address high inflation, for more than two years, the FOMC increased and held the federal funds rate at a restrictive level. At our September meeting, the FOMC voted to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point to 4-3/4 to 5 percent and to continue reducing the Federal Reserve’s securities holdings.

    As the post-meeting statement noted, I dissented from the FOMC’s decision, preferring instead to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. Last Friday, once our FOMC participant communications blackout period concluded, the Board of Governors released my statement explaining the decision to depart from the majority of the voting members. I agreed with the Committee’s assessment that, given the progress we have seen since the middle of 2023 on both lowering inflation and cooling the labor market, it was appropriate to reflect this progress by recalibrating the level of the federal funds rate and begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance of policy. As my statement notes, I preferred a smaller initial cut in the policy rate while the U.S. economy remains strong and inflation remains a concern, despite recent progress.

    Economic Conditions and Outlook

    In recent months, we have seen some further progress on slowing the pace of inflation, with monthly readings lower than the elevated pace seen in the first three months of the year. The 12-month measure of core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, which provides a broader perspective than the more volatile higher-frequency readings, has moved down since April, although it came in at 2.6 percent in July, again remaining well above our 2 percent goal. In addition, the latest consumer and producer price index reports suggest that 12-month core PCE inflation in August was likely a touch above the July reading. The persistently high core inflation largely reflects pressures on housing prices, perhaps due in part to low inventories of affordable housing. The progress in lowering inflation since April is a welcome development, but core inflation is still uncomfortably above the Committee’s 2 percent goal.

    Prices remain much higher than before the pandemic, which continues to weigh on consumer sentiment. Higher prices have an outsized effect on lower- and moderate-income households, as these households devote a significantly larger share of income to food, energy, and housing. Prices for these spending categories have far outpaced overall inflation over the past few years.

    Economic growth moderated earlier this year after coming in stronger last year. Private domestic final purchases (PDFP) growth has been solid and slowed much less than gross domestic product (GDP), as the slowdown in GDP growth was partly driven by volatile categories including net exports, suggesting that underlying economic growth was stronger than GDP indicated. PDFP has continued to increase at a solid pace so far in the third quarter, despite some further weakening in housing activity, as retail sales have shown further robust gains in July and August.

    Although personal consumption has remained resilient, consumers appear to be pulling back on discretionary items and expenses, as evidenced in part by a decline in restaurant spending since late last year. Low- and moderate-income consumers no longer have extra savings to support this type of spending, and we have seen loan delinquency rates normalize from historically low levels during the pandemic.

    The most recent labor market report shows that payroll employment gains have slowed appreciably to a pace moderately above 100,000 per month over the three months ending in August. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 percent in August from 4.3 percent in July. While unemployment is notably higher than a year ago, it is still at a historically low level and below my and the Congressional Budget Office’s estimates of full employment.

    The labor market has loosened from the extremely tight conditions of the past few years. The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed workers has declined further to a touch below the historically elevated pre-pandemic level-a sign that the number of available workers and the number of available jobs have come into better balance. But there are still more available jobs than available workers, a condition that before 2018 has only occurred twice for a prolonged period since World War II, further signaling ongoing labor market strength despite the reported data.

    Although wage growth has slowed further in recent months, it remains indicative of a tight labor market. At just under 4 percent, as measured by both the employment cost index and average hourly earnings, wage gains are still above the pace consistent with our inflation goal given trend productivity growth.

    The rise in the unemployment rate this year largely reflects weaker hiring, as job seekers entering or re-entering the labor force are taking longer to find work, while layoffs remain low. In addition to some cooling in labor demand, there are other factors likely contributing the increased unemployment. A mismatch between the skills of the new workers and available jobs could further raise unemployment, suggesting that higher unemployment has been partly driven by the stronger supply of workers. It is also likely that some temporary factors contributed to the recent rise in the unemployment rate, as unemployment among working age teenagers sharply increased in August.

    Preference for a More Measured Recalibration of Policy

    The U.S. economy remains strong and core inflation remains uncomfortably above our 2 percent target. In light of these economic conditions, a few further considerations supported the case for a more measured approach in beginning the process to recalibrate our policy stance to remove restriction and move toward a more neutral setting.

    First, I was concerned that reducing the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/2 percentage point could be interpreted as a signal that the Committee sees some fragility or greater downside risks to the economy. In the current economic environment, with no clear signs of material weakening or fragility, in my view, beginning the rate-cutting cycle with a 1/4 percentage point move would have better reinforced the strength in economic conditions, while also confidently recognizing progress toward our goals. In my mind, a more measured approach would have avoided the risk of unintentionally signaling concerns about underlying economic conditions.

    Second, I was also concerned that reducing the policy rate by 1/2 percentage point could have led market participants to expect that the Committee would lower the target range by that same pace at future meetings until the policy rate approaches a neutral level. If this expectation had materialized, we could have seen an unwarranted decline in longer-term interest rates and broader financial conditions could become overly accommodative. This outcome could work against the Committee’s goal of returning inflation to our 2 percent target.

    I am pleased that Chair Powell directly addressed both of these concerns during the press conference following last week’s FOMC meeting.

    Third, there continues to be a considerable amount of pent-up demand and cash on the sidelines ready to be deployed as the path of interest rates moves down. Bringing the policy rate down too quickly carries the risk of unleashing that pent-up demand. A more measured approach would also avoid unnecessarily stoking demand and potentially reigniting inflationary pressures.

    Finally, in dialing back our restrictive stance of policy, we also need to be mindful of what the end point is likely to be. My estimate of the neutral rate is much higher than it was before the pandemic. Therefore, I think we are much closer to neutral than would have been the case under pre-pandemic conditions, and I did not see the peak stance of policy as restrictive to the same extent that my colleagues may have. With a higher estimate of neutral, for any given pace of rate reductions, we would arrive at our destination sooner.

    Ongoing Risks to the Outlook

    Turning to the risks to achieving our dual mandate, I continue to see greater risks to price stability, especially while the labor market continues to be near estimates of full employment. Although the labor market data have been showing signs of cooling in recent months, still-elevated wage growth, solid consumer spending, and resilient GDP growth are not consistent with a material economic weakening or fragility. My contacts also continue to mention that they are not planning layoffs and continue to have difficulty hiring. Therefore, I am taking less signal from the recent labor market data until there are clear trends indicating that both spending growth and the labor market have materially weakened. I suspect the recent immigration flows have and will continue to affect labor markets in ways that we do not yet fully understand and cannot yet accurately measure. In light of the dissonance created by conflicting economic signals, measurement challenges, and data revisions, I remain cautious about taking signal from only a limited set of real-time data releases.

    In my view, the upside risks to inflation remain prominent. Global supply chains continue to be susceptible to labor strikes and increased geopolitical tensions, which could result in inflationary effects on food, energy, and other commodity markets. Expansionary fiscal spending could also lead to inflationary risks, as could an increased demand for housing given the long-standing limited supply, especially of affordable housing. While it has not been my baseline outlook, I cannot rule out the risk that progress on inflation could continue to stall.

    Although it is important to recognize that there has been meaningful progress on lowering inflation, while core inflation remains around or above 2.5 percent, I see the risk that the Committee’s larger policy action could be interpreted as a premature declaration of victory on our price-stability mandate. Accomplishing our mission of returning to low and stable inflation at our 2 percent goal is necessary to foster a strong labor market and an economy that works for everyone in the longer term.

    In light of these considerations, I believe that, by moving at a measured pace toward a more neutral policy stance, we will be better positioned to achieve further progress in bringing inflation down to our 2 percent target, while closely watching the evolution of labor market conditions.

    The Path Forward

    Despite my dissent at the recent FOMC meeting, I respect and appreciate that my FOMC colleagues preferred to begin the reduction in the federal funds rate with a larger initial cut in the target range for the policy rate. I remain committed to working together with my colleagues to ensure that monetary policy is appropriately positioned to achieve our goals of attaining maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2 percent target.

    I will continue to monitor the incoming data and information as I assess the appropriate path of monetary policy, and I will remain cautious in my approach to adjusting the stance of policy going forward. It is important to note that monetary policy is not on a preset course. My colleagues and I will make our decisions at each FOMC meeting based on the incoming data and the implications for and risks to the outlook guided by the Fed’s dual-mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices. We need to ensure that the public understands clearly how current and expected deviations of inflation and employment from our mandated goals inform our policy decisions.

    By the time of our next meeting in November, we will have received updated reports on inflation, employment, and economic activity. We may also have a better understanding of how developments in longer-term interest rates and broader financial conditions might influence the economic outlook.

    During the intermeeting period, I will continue to visit with a broad range of contacts to discuss economic conditions as I assess the appropriateness of our monetary policy stance. As I noted earlier, I continue to view inflation as a concern. In light of the upside risks that I just described, it remains necessary to pay close attention to the price-stability side of our mandate while being attentive to the risks of a material weakening in the labor market. My view continues to be that restoring price stability is essential for achieving maximum employment over the longer run. However, should the data evolve in a way that points to a material weakening in the labor market, I would support taking action and adjust monetary policy as needed while taking into account our inflation mandate.

    Closing Thoughts

    In closing, thank you again for welcoming me here today. It is a pleasure to join you and to have the opportunity to discuss my views on the economy and monetary policy. And given the recent FOMC meeting decision and my dissent, I appreciate being able to provide a more detailed explanation of the reasoning that led me to dissent in favor of a smaller reduction in the policy rate at last week’s FOMC meeting.

    I look forward to answering your questions and to engaging with your members on bank regulatory and supervisory matters.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Tiff Macklem: Economic growth during uncertain times

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Good afternoon. I want to thank the Institute of International Finance and the Canadian Bankers Association for inviting me to take part in your 2024 Forum.

    Your focus on growth during uncertainty is timely. Uncertainty feels like the new reality: The uncertainty caused by war in Europe and in the Middle East. The uncertainties arising from geopolitical tensions and economic fragmentation. And the related uncertainties about supply chains, trading relationships and global investment risks.

    Rapid advances in new technologies, particularly artificial intelligence (AI) and its new offspring, Generative-AI, are disrupting business models and creating new uncertainties for firms and workers.

    Uncertainty surrounds the impacts of climate change and the policy frameworks to adapt to and mitigate it.

    There is political uncertainty. And fiscal uncertainty.

    As your theme implies, uncertainty and economic growth do not sit well together: uncertainty impedes growth.

    But with inspired policy, good business decisions and sound risk management, we can manage uncertainty and reduce its impact on households, businesses and growth. We have recent historical evidence.

    Sixteen years ago this month, Lehman Brothers failed, and the financial system froze because nobody knew which banks were safe. Today, the global financial system is much safer thanks to the implementation of sweeping global reforms to increase capital and liquidity buffers, and reduce leverage.

    With the rapid development of new vaccines and with exceptional fiscal and monetary policies, uncertainty about our health and the health of our economies has decreased dramatically since the depths of the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Thanks to decisive monetary policy action and the unblocking of supply chains, uncertainty about costs and inflation are much lower today than two years ago, when inflation peaked above 8% in Canada and was even higher in many other countries.

    In the past few weeks, I have given speeches on the shifting global trade landscape and the economic implications and risks of rapid advances in artificial intelligence. These are two key areas where we can reduce uncertainty through good policy and far-sighted business leadership.

    At the same time, we need to recognize that new uncertainties are a new reality, and we must be ready for the inevitable shocks in a more turbulent world. That puts a priority on risk management and investments in resilience.

    A key function of financial institutions is to help households and businesses manage the risks they face. Financial institutions also have a responsibility to manage their own risks prudently so that they do not themselves become a source of uncertainty and instability.

    As Canada’s central bank, we have a role to play in mitigating and managing risks and uncertainty. Our primary mandate is price stability-in other words, low, stable and predictable inflation. We also have mandates to foster a stable financial system and ensure safe and efficient payments.

    Let me say a few words on financial stability and payments. And then I’ll finish with some thoughts on monetary policy.

    Our financial stability focus is on risks that could lead to system-wide stress. And we publish these findings in our annual Financial Stability Report (FSR).1

    In our most recent FSR, published in May, we reported that Canadian mortgage holders had experienced a modest increase in levels of financial stress. Since then, we’ve observed that arrears on mortgages have continued to rise, although they remain below pre-pandemic levels. It also appears that these households have not leaned on revolving credit products such as lines of credit and credit cards to a greater degree than before the pandemic.

    But there is a notable increase in financial stress among borrowers without a mortgage, mainly renters. During the pandemic, for most credit products, the share of these borrowers missing payments reached historical lows. However, we’re now seeing a larger share of these borrowers lagging behind on credit card and auto loan payments. Over the past year the share of borrowers without a mortgage who carry a credit card balance of at least 90% of their credit limit has continued to climb. And this share is now above typical historical levels. This is concerning.

    Our responsibilities related to payments require us to adapt to increasing digitalization. Innovation in payments continues to accelerate.

    In 2021, the Bank assumed a new mandate for the supervision of retail payment service providers. Starting November 1st of this year, more than 3,000 service providers will need to register with the Bank and follow new rules aimed at safeguarding consumers and protecting the integrity of retail payments.  

    We are also looking at the bigger picture of payment innovation, both in Canada and around the world. As part of this work, in the past few years we’ve built an extensive body of knowledge about the framework and technology behind a possible central bank digital currency (CBDC), including the benefits and risks.

    But recognizing that there is not currently a compelling case to move forward with a CBDC in Canada, the Bank is scaling down its work on a retail central bank digital currency and shifting its focus to broader payments system research and policy development. The Bank will continue to monitor global retail CBDC developments. And the Bank will be ready to ensure Canadians always have a safe and secure supply of public money.

    Now, let me circle back to monetary policy.

    In June, we began lowering our policy interest rate. We cut the policy rate at our last three decisions, for a cumulative decline of 75 basis points to 4.25%.

    Our most recent decision on September 4th reflected two main considerations.

    First, we noted that headline and core inflation had continued to ease as expected. Second, we said that as inflation gets closer to target, we want to see economic growth pick up to absorb the slack in the economy.

    Since then, we’ve been pleased to see inflation come all the way back to the 2% target. It has been a long journey. Now we want to keep inflation close to the centre of the 1%–3% inflation-control band. We need to stick the landing.

    What does this mean for interest rates? With the continued progress we’ve seen on inflation, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy rate. The timing and pace will be determined by incoming data and our assessment of what those data mean for future inflation.

    As always, we try to be as clear as we can about what we are watching as we chart the course for monetary policy.

    Economic growth picked up in the first half of this year, and we want to see it strengthen further so that inflation stays close to the 2% target. Some recent indicators suggest growth may not be as strong as we expected. We will be closely watching consumer spending, as well as business hiring and investment.

    We will also be looking for continued easing in core inflation, which is still a little above 2%. Shelter cost inflation remains elevated but has started to come down, and we are looking for it to moderate further.

    Our next decision is October 23rd. And we will have a revised economic outlook at that time.

    With those introductory thoughts, let’s get the discussion started.

    I would like to thank Russell Barnett, Claudia Godbout and Brian Peterson for their help in preparing these remarks.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Frank Elderson: Energy performance data – a must-have for managing climate-related credit risk

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Good morning and a very warm welcome to all of you. It is a pleasure to see so many of you – bank representatives, journalists and supervisors – here in Frankfurt to discuss good practices for collecting and assessing climate-related data for the real estate sector.

    We have come a long way since 2019 when we first started to talk about climate-related and environmental risk management with you – the banks we supervise. Thanks to the tireless work of many dedicated climate risk experts in banks across Europe, jointly we have built up considerable expertise and made encouraging progress.

    Real estate lending represents a significant share of supervised banks’ banking books. The real estate sector is also a concrete example of how physical and transition risks affect traditional prudential risk categories, in this case credit risk. And just as we do for any other material risk, we expect banks to identify, measure and – most importantly – manage these risks.

    Good data are crucial for sound risk management

    In short, to manage your risks you need to know them. And to know your risks you need to have good data. The same holds true when integrating climate-related risk drivers into credit risk management.

    To manage credit risk in the real estate sector, we need data on buildings’ energy efficiency. This is crucial for collateral valuations or determining borrowers’ ability to pay back their loan, for example.

    With this in mind, back in 2021 ECB Banking Supervision started looking at energy performance data for the commercial and residential real estate sectors by conducting targeted reviews for a sample of banks that were most exposed to these sectors. Supervisors collected data from these banks and engaged with them on their practices. As expectations were not yet set on this specific topic, we let banks explain how they obtained energy performance data. We looked at new lending as well as existing loan stocks.

    Overall, our targeted review showed that more progress had been made for new lending, for which most data were based on real data from energy performance certificates. As a concrete outcome of our targeted review, we asked all banks in the sample to collect real energy performance data at loan origination. Our supervisory recommendation was well received by banks that were not yet doing it, showing banks’ willingness to integrate energy performance data into their credit risk management policies. This is good news.

    However, as supervisors, we are also concerned about the existing stock of loans. Most of the data on this are based on proxies, which makes it difficult for both banks and supervisors to design and implement proper risk management measures. Obtaining real data is admittedly challenging, yet many of the banks represented here today have made notable strides. You have found a way to collect energy performance data and use them effectively. And we invite all banks that have not yet advanced on collecting such data to learn from the good practices of those banks that have made critical leaps forward.

    Legislative changes will improve the availability of energy performance data

    Integrating climate-related data is also vitally important in view of impending legislative changes. The revised Energy Performance of Buildings Directive1, which includes common requirements for setting up national databases on the energy performance of buildings, is an important development that should help narrow the data gap. In the spirit of the Directive, further work is needed to ensure adequate data management and increase the reliability and consistency of climate-related real estate data across the European Union. Establishing a comprehensive European database of all buildings in the EU will take time. So banks cannot just sit back and wait. As supervisors we expect banks to manage all material risks. And this requirement is not conditional on the attainability of harmonised data.

    We therefore strongly encourage all efforts to improve data availability and welcome the successful strategies that some banks have implemented to address data gaps.

    Today’s agenda will focus on the collection of energy performance data for the commercial and residential real estate sectors. But this will not be the only topic. Properties in areas prone to hazard events such as floods, rising sea levels or wildfires are increasingly vulnerable and could see a decrease in their collateral value. Last week’s devastating floods in Austria, Czechia, Hungary, Italy, Poland, Romania and Slovakia were a stark reminder of that. Therefore, later in today’s programme we will discuss the challenges and potential solutions for monitoring physical risk. In the coming weeks, the ECB will publish an analytical paper focusing on whether residential mortgage rates in high climate risk areas are influenced by this risk. The paper finds evidence that climate-related risk is already priced into mortgages. In other words, we see that an average bank took climate-related risks into account as loans secured by real estate in high climate risk areas were more expensive than loans with the same characteristics but in safer regions. However, the effect we find is economically small, so it seems that the climate-related risk is still underpriced by the average bank.

    Let me conclude.

    Good, reliable data are a cornerstone of sound risk management. This also holds true for managing the risks stemming from climate change. Thanks to the ongoing dialogue between supervisors and banks, some major stumbling blocks have already been overcome. The good practices observed for collecting real data on energy performance show that, while the task is challenging, it is far from impossible. Sharing your practices with peers will help more banks to improve the availability of energy performance data. So we are all looking forward to hearing about your experiences and learning from what worked well.

    The ongoing climate and nature crises will inevitably render our economy more susceptible to shocks. From a risk-based perspective, let me reassure you that ECB Banking Supervision will continue to play our part in spurring on banks to prepare for these risks. To succeed in our common goal of making banks resilient to climate and nature-related risks, it is vital that we keep up this dialogue with you – the industry – and encourage the exchange of good practices in the years to come.

    I would like to thank you for coming to Frankfurt today to share your experiences.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Alessandra Perrazzelli: Steering the transition to a quantum-safe world. An internationally coordinated approach

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Introduction

    Good morning and a very warm welcome to this important workshop on how to build a quantum-safe financial system.* I would like to start by thanking Prof. Cirac Sasturain and all the participants in the panel sessions for their insightful and thought-provoking contributions. Let me extend my gratitude to all the speakers, panellists, and attendees who have travelled from near and far to come here in Rome. Your presence and contributions are vital for the success of this workshop. I am confident that through our collective expertise and collaboration in the remainder of the workshop we will succeed in laying out actionable outcomes for steering the financial system’s transition towards a quantum-safe world.

    Quantum computing, as already noted by many speakers this morning, has the potential to revolutionize the financial system. Thanks to its unparalleled processing power and innovative capabilities, quantum computing can bring about a paradigm shift from the current ‘digital economy’ to a new era of ‘quantum economy’. Such shift encompasses unseen opportunities along with significant challenges for global financial markets, including – in particular – unbalanced access to technology and cybersecurity threats, which we must address with foresight and in a spirit of collaboration.

    As central banks and financial supervisors, we recognize the importance of striking a balance between steadfastly embracing technological changes on the one hand, and retaining a more cautious approach on the other, in light of the objective of safeguarding the stability, security, and integrity of our financial systems. It is part of our duty to promote and actively participate in the discussion on how to ensure the financial system’s transition to the quantum era in the safest possible way, considering the limitations of current technology.

    Quantum computing, while potentially threatening our system for secure communications, will also be instrumental in developing the solutions to restore resiliency in our financial system. In fact, quantum computing is bound to generate an unprecedented combination of opportunities, risks and uncertainties, which must be managed carefully in order to avoid market inertia and fragmentation, and to sustain an orderly and efficient transition to a quantum-safe world.

    With today’s workshop, we intend to launch a discussion on a possible path for steering the financial system’s migration to quantum resilience, within the framework of an internationally coordinated approach involving all the stakeholders: authorities, financial industry, technology providers and academia.

    1. The quantum financial system of the future: timeline, opportunities and risks

    The quantum revolution is already happening, although the exact timeline for its full deployment can hardly be predicted. Innovation in this field is characterized by pivotal and often unexpected transformative breakthroughs leading to sudden acceleration, and sustained by consistent and sizeable public and private investments. The explosion of artificial intelligence technologies, whose interplay with quantum computing holds the potential for both steering and accelerating the development of far-reaching solutions, is making this path even more unpredictable. Against this backdrop of high uncertainty, we expect that the quantum machine capacity necessary to give rise to a significant cybersecurity threat will be achieved in a foreseeable future.1

    The financial sector plays a dual role that enables it to look at the quantum phenomenon from two distinct perspectives: firstly, as a user, keen on embracing the capacity of quantum computing for innovation, and secondly, as a highly vulnerable target for quantum-powered cyberattacks.

    Although the use of quantum computing in the financial sector is still at an immature stage, experimental results already highlight its ability to improve key financial processes, such as risk and portfolio management, payment services and computationally intensive simulation-based tasks (e.g. analyses related to fraud detection and prevention, and anti-money laundering).

    Exploiting the benefits of quantum computing also presents unique challenges for financial institutions. Like other enabling technologies, quantum computing raises issues related to equitable access and market competitiveness; the full integration of this technology into legacy systems poses significant hurdles. Furthermore, the very nature of quantum computing entails a substantial paradigm shift in how financial services operate. Regulators must carefully navigate the new environment to support the smooth adoption and avoid misuse of these technologies from the private and public sectors.

    Quantum technologies also bring new risks for the financial sector. In particular, such technologies could be exploited to break the encryption algorithms currently underpinning the security of critical communication systems and digital assets.

    Critical financial infrastructures are among the main targets of cyberattacks based on quantum computing. They include the financial infrastructures of the future – which will support, for instance, central bank digital currencies and crypto-assets – as the two techniques of key encapsulation and digital signature currently used are both based on asymmetric encryption, which is vulnerable to the quantum threat. It will be of outmost importance to factor in the risks stemming from quantum computing when designing the central bank digital currencies.

    This risk is already on the table with the practice of ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ used by malicious actors. Information embedded in contracts currently in force needs to be kept secret for years to come. Even just the possibility that some of it will be exposed – as soon as the technology becomes available – is already a potential blow to trust.

    2. The state of the art: one problem, many potential technical approaches

    As we will see through the lunch session, some solutions to mitigate cyber issues are already available. The heart of cybersecurity lies in cryptography, which – from encrypting data to securing online transactions – is the guardian of our digital world.

    As the financial industry and governments prepare to protect against quantum threats, it is necessary that they become ‘crypto-agile’, adopting a multifaceted security strategy that incorporates a range of easily upgradable quantum-resistant solution. The showcase exercise that will be performed in this session will demonstrate that there are two different but complementary approaches that can be used in order to deal with quantum-safe cryptography.

    On the one hand, we can take advantage of quantum properties to establish secure communication channels between parties, where any attempt to eavesdrop or intercept the exchange of encryption keys is detected. On the other hand, considering that the cryptography involves the use of mathematical algorithms to transform readable data into encrypted data and vice versa, it is possible to replace the current algorithms (unbreakable now, but solvable with quantum computing) with others that are more difficult to solve, even for a quantum computer.

    Each one of these technologies – or a combination of them – will allow full end-to-end security in our digital communications. At the same time, however, these technologies are all extremely demanding in terms of time and resources. At the current state of the technology, embracing the quantum physics approach is estimated to impose costs of a higher order of magnitude, though it appears to provide a definitive solution to the quantum threat. The showcase exercise will demonstrate how some solutions already available to the market work, leveraging the points I have just mentioned.

    Clearly, this is not a technological dilemma that can be solved with a black-or-white answer, and what is optimal now may not be optimal in the medium or long term. Migrating the whole financial system toward a quantum-safe setup is a dynamic process requiring a multifaceted approach. Whatever strategy is chosen, though, we need to have interoperable solutions working at all times for the financial industry within a single jurisdiction and between different jurisdictions.

    3. Why authorities should act now

    Numerous public and private initiatives have been launched to develop what are known as ‘quantum-safe’ solutions. However, some key elements of uncertainty are hampering the market’s ability to effectively embrace the migration to quantum-resilient solutions.

    First, while the implementation timeline for the quantum threat is by no means certain, short-term risk mitigation costs are significant. Second, there is a lack of agreement on a sound migration approach and on suitable interoperable technical standards. Third, the regulatory and capability landscape is fragmented across jurisdictions. These are all obstacles to a timely and orderly transition.

    Despite growing awareness of the quantum threat, a comprehensive and widely shared action plan in this area remains elusive. The lack of harmonized regulations and of clear international guidelines and standards concerning the transition to a quantum-safe world may induce protracted inertia in the financial system’s migration efforts.

    The global nature of the financial system, the interconnectedness of intermediaries within the financial industry, and between them and the technology providers, call for public authorities to take a whole-of-government approach towards addressing the common threat posed by quantum technology. This includes fostering a dialogue between all relevant public and private stakeholders, aimed at establishing priority areas of intervention and ensuring a common path towards a quantum-safe economy through proactive cooperation and international coordination.

    A systematic approach involving all international stakeholders is particularly important for financial infrastructures, given their high interconnectedness. We need to protect all links of the chain, especially the weakest.

    4. A common path to a quantum-resilient financial system

    All these elements make the discussion on the migration strategy something that cannot be put off any longer. The importance of preparing the financial system for the transition to quantum computing is at the heart of this workshop. This is the right time to address the challenges of the transition to quantum computing, to agree on the respective roles of public authorities and of the private sector, and to take concrete action.

    To protect the financial system from the threats posed by quantum computing, the Bank of Italy is proposing – in the context of the ongoing work on risks from emerging technologies affecting the financial system that is being carried out in the G7 Finance Track – that G7 member countries jointly develop a ‘common roadmap for quantum resilience’, providing a unified policy framework for the actions needed to steer the transition to a quantum-safe financial system through an international cooperation approach.

    The roadmap should include all initiatives that are essential for a quantum-resilient financial system and could be implemented under the responsibility of different multinational organizations. The monitoring, coordination and governance of the overall roadmap should be undertaken at the highest political level. For example, a shared response at the level of G7 countries would provide a benchmark that could outline the way forward for other jurisdictions so as to cover, eventually, the global financial system.

    Whichever migration path we decide to adopt, it has to fulfil certain requirements. First, it needs to build on existing regulation in order to capitalize on best practices and, possibly, avoid over-regulation.

    Second, it will entail the standardization of the approaches taken to risk mitigation across jurisdictions, so as to enable synergies and speed up the transition, as the suppliers of technical solutions will work based on shared guidelines.

    Third, financial industry players as well as hardware and software providers must participate in the design of the strategy. Their involvement is necessary in order to devise a way forward that hinges on the best and most up-to-date technologies in a field where innovation is characterized by sudden accelerations.

    Fourth, preservation of interoperability and quality of services must remain the guiding principle of this transition process together with its gradual and safe implementation and with the principle of proportionality, to strike a balance between short-term fixes and long-term solutions. Continuous monitoring of the progress achieved and of the resources absorbed in this endeavour will be important: on this basis, the roadmap commitments can be reassessed along the way, including with respect to the timeline, by accelerating or delaying some milestones as needed.

    Finally, international coordination is a key aspect. The G7 Cyber Expert Group could be the right forum for operatively managing the quantum resilience migration roadmap, as well as for drafting policy guidelines. Other multinational institutions already involved in the adoption of quantum technologies in the financial system, such as the BIS and the standard setting bodies, could contribute proactively in defining guidelines and standards as cornerstones of the migration.

    Due to their critical role, financial markets and payment infrastructures, including those that will be supporting the central bank digital currencies, deserve particular attention. The CPMI-IOSCO could be the right organization to lead the work for the quantum resilience of these crucial nodes of the financial system.

    * * *

    Let me conclude by thanking you all for gathering today to discuss this extremely important topic. Hopefully, the discussion that we initiated today will continue in a fruitful way in the immediate future to deliver as quickly as possible a migration roadmap which can be embraced by all G7 members and possibly also shared with G20 and other countries for wider adoption.

    * I would like to thank Silvia Vori, Valerio Paolo Vacca, Giuseppe Bruno, Lorenzo Bencivelli, Mauro De Santis, Cristina Andriani, Sabina Marchetti, Antonio Castellucci and Giovanna Piantanida for their contributions to this speech.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Nexomus GmbH: BaFin warns against website nexomus.com

    Source: Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht – In English

    Anyone conducting banking business or providing financial or investment services in Germany may do so only with authorisation from BaFin. However, some companies offer these services without the required authorisation. Information on whether companies have been authorised by BaFin can be found in BaFin’s database of companies.

    The information provided by BaFin is based on section 37 (4) of the German Banking Act (Kreditwesengesetz – KWG).

    Please be aware:

    BaFin, the German Federal Criminal Police Office (Bundeskriminalamt – BKA) and the German state criminal police offices (Landeskriminalämter) recommend that consumers seeking to invest money online should exercise the utmost caution and do the necessary research beforehand in order to identify fraud attempts at an early stage.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Luigi Federico Signorini: Building a quantum-safe financial system – what role for authorities and for the private sector?

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Ladies and Gentlemen,

    It is my pleasure to open this seminar on the implications of quantum technology for the financial sector.

    Experts agree that we are on the eve of a very significant technological change: one that will redefine our approach to data and to the tools we use to process them, and may well revolutionise important, even critical, aspects of the way financial institutions operate.

    Like all significant technological advances, the quantum revolution comes with both promises and threats. Massively enhanced computational power, algorithms that are far more efficient than existing ones, and a much stronger base for artificial intelligence, are expected to offer opportunities for better and cheaper services, but they will also introduce new challenges, not least for financial stability.

    Central banks and financial institutions have often been early adopters of technological innovations. To preserve trust, institutions should continue to be bold and imaginative, but at the same time fully aware of the risks. Prudent supervisory guidance is needed to preserve the stability, security and integrity of the financial system. Our seminar will be an opportunity to go beyond generalities and explore the most likely concrete challenges and trade-offs we need to face in the quantum era.

    The Bank of Italy has a tradition of actively and rapidly adapting its policies to changes in the data management landscape. Drawing on our experience, we have long contributed to the action of the European System of Central Banks. We continue to work in partnership with academia and in cooperation with national and international institutions.

    The most immediate threat most of us currently perceive concerns the protection of the integrity and confidentiality of data. We feel that such a threat calls for a coordinated response, within the G7 and beyond. We shall take the opportunity of this workshop to share our experiences and ongoing work at the Bank of Italy and to present some real-life examples of useful and feasible cooperation at the national, European and global level. We encourage all participants to do the same.

    Since Peter Shor demonstrated, in 1994, that a quantum computer could theoretically solve problems much faster than traditional ones, he has inspired scientists all over the world to imagine the countless possibilities of this technology, and technologists to look for ways to actually build a functioning machine based on it. Thirty years on, while we still lack a fully functional and reliable quantum computer, we seem to be actually getting closer and closer.

    As the cybersecurity threat is serious but there are potential ways to fend it off, we cannot afford to wait. Implementing quantum-resistant cryptography tools before quantum computers become practically operational is crucial for data longevity. Sensitive data that are encrypted using today’s technology could be stored now by malicious agents and decrypted later, once quantum tools become available; upgrading cryptographic tools as soon as possible is therefore necessary to ensure long-term data security. This is especially relevant for financial institutions. Their core business is ultimately based on the ability to create, manage and use sensitive data, and it is not unlikely that the quantum revolution will hit the financial sector faster and more intensively than other industries.

    Awareness of the need to act is growing. In the spring of this year, the European Commission published a ‘Recommendation on a Coordinated Implementation Roadmap for the transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography’. In the US, the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) officially released its first set of finalised post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms last month. This is a major step forward.

    In the G7 Finance Track, the Italian presidency identified quantum computing as one of the key strategic cyber issues facing us. It may affect multiple policy areas, including national security, competitiveness, ethics, and skill development.

    While solutions to achieve quantum security are starting to become available, there are factors that can make market players reluctant to adopt them quickly. These include uncertainty about the actual urgency of the quantum threat, the fact that a common transition approach has not yet emerged, and the fragmentation of investments, responsibilities and regulatory frameworks across jurisdictions.

    The G7 has launched several technical initiatives to foster coordination among the main stakeholders. With today’s workshop, we aim to engage key experts in G7 countries, with a view to developing a shared understanding of the most urgent issues, a potential roadmap to address the transition to quantum resilience and, to the extent possible, an agreed policy agenda. We are fortunate today to have speakers and attendants from a wide range of backgrounds: academia, government institutions (including law-enforcement agencies), central banks, international organisations and the finance industry. This promises to be an ideal opportunity to exchange views, in that it brings together a set of distinguished experts with considerably diverse experience. I encourage all participants to be active, ask questions and share their insights.

    Ladies and gentlemen, we are also honoured to have Professor Juan Ignacio Cirac Sasturain with us today as a keynote speaker. As many of you will know, our speaker is one of the leading theorists in quantum computation. His contributions range from the physics of quantum computers to quantum algorithms and quantum information theory. Many here will be especially interested in his seminal work on quantum cryptography. Professor Cirac is the Director of the Theory Department at the Max Planck Institute of quantum optics in Garching bei München, Bavaria, and collaborates with many other academic institutions. He has received an impressive number of high-level awards, including the Prince of Asturias Award for Technical and Scientific Research (2006), the BBVA Frontiers of Knowledge Award (2008), the Benjamin Franklin Medal (2010), the Wolf Prize in Physics (2013), the Max Planck Medal (2018), and many others; more are sure to come. The subject of his talk is, very aptly, ‘opportunities and challenges of the next generation’s computers’. We are certain that his remarks on today’s central issue will set the stage for a very productive seminar.

    Please join me in welcoming Ignacio Cirac to the stage.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Banking: [Interview] Behind the Scenes of Galaxy Ring: Product Planning a Game Changer in Health Management

    Source: Samsung

    Dating back more than 3,000 years to ancient Egypt, rings have symbolized different values throughout human history — including love, power and self-expression. With Samsung Electronics’ newly unveiled Galaxy Ring, health has now been added to that list.
     
    The smallest and most compact form factor in the Galaxy wearable portfolio, the Galaxy Ring fits comfortably on users’ fingers like a traditional ring. Equipped with cutting-edge sensors and Galaxy AI features, the Galaxy Ring offers a powerful health management experience.
     
    Samsung Newsroom sat down with Sungjin Kim and Yujin Roh from the Wearable Product Planning Group, Mobile eXperience Business at Samsung Electronics, to learn how the Galaxy Ring came to be.
     
     
    Ultra-Compact Form Factor Optimized for 24/7 Health Monitoring
    Q. What inspired the creation of the Galaxy Ring, a completely new addition to Samsung’s wearable lineup?
     
    Kim: We’ve been exploring new opportunities in the wearable market with a particular focus on the rapidly growing field of health management. This led us to look for the optimal form factor to provide more accurate, uninterrupted health data for personalized health solutions. After evaluating various form factors, we settled on the ring — a user-friendly, small and lightweight shape that can be worn 24/7.
     
    ▲ Sungjin Kim
     
     
    Q. What key health management benefits does the Galaxy Ring offer?
     
    Roh: Sleep is the foundation of health. The Galaxy Ring is comfortable enough to wear while sleeping and can last up to a week on a single charge,1 making it ideal for collecting detailed and in-depth sleep data. A powerful sleep AI algorithm provides advanced sleep insights to help users better understand and improve their sleep. Furthermore, Energy Score analyzes sleep quality, activity levels, sleeping heart rate and sleeping heart rate variability data to deliver a daily health index to users.
     

    ▲ Yujin Roh
     
     
    Q. What factors were considered during the design process?
     
    Kim: To maximize the advantages of the ring form, we examined the historical and biological significance of rings before incorporating these insights into the product. For example, we adopted a simple yet modern concave style to enhance the Galaxy Ring’s value as an everyday accessory. Moreover, the charging case and packaging have clamshell designs reminiscent of a jewelry box — elevating the quality of the product down to the finest details that users touch.
     
    ▲ Packaging and charging case for the Galaxy Ring
     
     
    The Quest for an Effortless User Experience
    Q. What was your primary focus during the planning process?
     
    Kim: Since our main focus was to provide users with meaningful health insights, we engaged in extensive discussions with the Digital Health Team and other relevant departments. One notable outcome of these collaborations is the introduction of Energy Score on Samsung Health. In addition, users can receive personalized health insights powered by Galaxy AI to help them reach their health goals. This innovation marks a new step in active and autonomous health management, moving beyond mere monitoring to offer users valuable guidance for healthier lifestyles.
     
    ▲ The Galaxy Ring features a heart rate sensor, accelerometer and skin temperature sensor.
     
    Roh: Comfort and aesthetics were also key priorities for us. Users were pleasantly surprised by how light the wearable is. During the planning phase, we conducted extensive research to ensure lightweight comfort. In addition, we carefully selected colors that complement a wide range of styles.
     
    ▲ The Galaxy Ring is available in Titanium Black, Titanium Silver and Titanium Gold.
     
     
    Q. What was the biggest challenge in designing the Galaxy Ring?
     
    Roh: Designing and implementing gestures was particularly challenging. To create a connected Galaxy ecosystem, we considered various user scenarios to ensure the product would be practical and convenient for everyone. As a result, we introduced the alarm turnoff feature — allowing users to dismiss the wake-up alarm on their Galaxy smartphone with a double-pinch gesture on the Galaxy Ring. This same movement can also control the Galaxy smartphone’s camera, maximizing connectivity between devices.
     
     
    Q. What has been the most memorable feedback since the Galaxy Ring launched?
     
    Kim: Unlike our previous products, we released teasers for the Galaxy Ring before its launch to attract attention. I vividly remember how excitement for the wearable exploded beyond our expectations when the product was revealed. This surge in interest energized everyone working on the product, fueling our passion during the final stretch of the launch. I’m proud to say that every single member of the team worked hard to perfect the device.
     
    Roh: The consumer feedback that pleased me the most was, “I love how it gives me such thorough health information, from sleep to exercise, when all I did was wear it.” We frequently hear that the product is so comfortable that users forget they have it on. This makes us proud and shows that our focus during the planning stage paid off. We’re grateful that users recognized our efforts in creating a premium experience — from the Galaxy Ring’s aesthetic to the charging case and practical sizing kit that allows users to measure their ring size in advance.
     
    ▲ (From left) Sungjin Kim and Yujin Roh discuss the product planning process behind the Galaxy Ring.
     
     
    Ushering in a New Era of Health Management
    Q. In one word or sentence, how would you describe the Galaxy Ring?
     
    Kim: I would say it’s a “game changer.” The Galaxy Ring is the first new form factor since the Galaxy Watch series — offering an even more intimate health experience with powerful capabilities packed into a small, lightweight device. Achieving this feat required hard work from the development and design teams as well as various other departments. I want to extend my heartfelt thanks to everyone involved in creating this product.
     
    Roh: In a word, it’s the “beginning.” For some, the Galaxy Ring marks the start of a new day. For others, the device signifies the commencement of a full-blown health management journey. Nonetheless, we hope it will open a new era of possibilities in the wearable market.
     
    ▲ (From left) Yujin Roh and Sungjin Kim pose for a photo with the Galaxy Ring.
     
     
    Q. What’s next for the Galaxy Ring?
     
    Kim: We aim to maximize the benefits of this ultra-small form factor to track and manage health data in the simplest way possible. As the wearable market continues to rapidly grow with a variety of products and services expected to emerge, our teams are dedicated to developing robust solutions that meet users’ needs.
     
    Roh: Beyond measuring health information, we will continue to explore ways of providing more specific insights and meaningful health improvements tailored to each user’s environment. We appreciate the continued interest in our innovations and hope users will share our anticipation for upcoming products.
     
    The creation of the Galaxy Ring — the smallest yet most powerful product in the Galaxy wearable lineup — was driven by the passion and tireless efforts of many dedicated individuals. Samsung looks forward to the new horizons the Galaxy Ring will unlock for health management in users’ everyday lives.
     
     
    1 Battery life is based on testing conducted with the size 12 and size 13 Galaxy Ring. Battery life of the size 12 and size 13 Galaxy Ring lasts up to 7 days on a single charge. Battery life varies by ring size. Battery life is based on results from internal lab tests for typical usage pattern scenarios conducted by Samsung. Tested with results from a pre-released version of the device under the scenario of Sleep Tracking for 6 hours, Auto Workout Detection for 1 hour and 30 minutes and several specific events (20 times of reconnection after disconnection, 3 times of Samsung Health app setting change, 0.5 times of Find My Ring execution, 3 minutes of Gestures execution) assuming 24 hours of use per day. Actual battery life may vary depending on different usage patterns, device model or the battery manufacturer. Rated capacity is 17mAh for Galaxy Ring sizes 5,6,7 (battery life lasts up to 6 days on a single charge), 18.5mAh for sizes 8,9,10,11 (battery life lasts up to 6 days on a single charge) and 22.5mAh for sizes 12,13 (battery life lasts up to 7 days on a single charge). Testing conducted by Samsung using Fast Charging USB C Cable and Samsung 25W USB C Power Adapter. Charge time varies with settings, usage patterns and environmental factors; actual results may vary.

    MIL OSI Global Banks –

  • MIL-OSI Video: Slow growth and the cost of debt: the World Bank’s Chief Economist on the global outlook

    Source: World Economic Forum (video statements)

    “The global economy – it’s a complicated picture, in the sense that it’s doing better than we expected just six months ago but it’s doing much worse than what it was doing six years ago.”

    World Bank Chief Economist Indermit Gill gives his assessment of the ‘glass half-full’ global economy.

    And as the World Economic Forum publishes the latest edition of its Chief Economists Outlook, the Forum’s Head of Economic Growth, Revival and Transformation, Aengus Collins, talks us through the highlights.
    Links:

    Chief Economists Outlook: https://www.weforum.org/podcasts/radio-davos/episodes/chief-economists-outlook-world-bank-indermit-gill
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    The long game: how to understand China and how it sees its role in the world (https://www.weforum.org/podcasts/radio-davos/episodes/china-west-geopolitics-trade-marcus-herrmann/)

    Check out all our podcasts on wef.ch/podcasts (http://wef.ch/podcasts) :

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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5AR5sHZ89us

    MIL OSI Video –