Category: Business

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Prevention of Bribery Ordinance (Amendment of Schedules 1 and 2) Order 2025 takes effect upon gazettal

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

         The Government published in the Gazette today (June 20) the Prevention of Bribery Ordinance (Amendment of Schedules 1 and 2) Order 2025 (the Amendment Order), which takes effect on the same day. The Amendment Order aims to put the Hong Kong Investment Corporation Limited (HKIC) and three financial infrastructure-related institutions (namely, the Hong Kong FMI Services Limited (HKFMI), the OTC Clearing Hong Kong Limited (OTC Clear) and the CMU OmniClear Limited (CMU OmniClear)) under the regulatory regime of the Prevention of Bribery Ordinance (Cap. 201) (the Ordinance).
     
         The Amendment Order specifies the HKIC, the HKFMI, the OTC Clear and the CMU OmniClear as public bodies that are subject to various restrictions under the Ordinance. Furthermore, persons doing business with the four public bodies are subject to the relevant sections of the Ordinance.
     
         A spokesperson for the Financial Services and the Treasury Bureau said, “The HKIC is entrusted by the Government to support the development of innovation and technology, as well as strategic industries in Hong Kong through investment. The other three financial infrastructure-related institutions have public functions to manage and operate financial market infrastructures. In view of the important role played by the four public bodies in Hong Kong’s financial system and economic development, it is in the public interest to cover them under the regulation of the Ordinance.”
     
         The Amendment Order will be tabled at the Legislative Council on June 25 for negative vetting.
     

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News

  • MIL-OSI China: Announcement on Open Market Operations No.117 [2025]

    Source: Peoples Bank of China

    Announcement on Open Market Operations No.117 [2025]

    (Open Market Operations Office, June 20, 2025)

    The People’s Bank of China conducted reverse repo operations in the amount of RMB161.2 billion through quantity bidding at a fixed interest rate on June 20, 2025.

    Details of the Reverse Repo Operations

    Maturity

    Rate

    Bidding Volume

    Winning Bid Volume

    7 days

    1.40%

    RMB161.2 billion

    RMB161.2 billion

    Date of last update Nov. 29 2018

    2025年06月20日

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: China to accelerate review of rare earth-related export license applications: commerce ministry

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    An undated file phto shows the entrance to China’s Ministry of Commerce in Beijing. [Photo/Xinhua]

    China has consistently placed great importance on maintaining the stability and security of global industrial and supply chains and has been accelerating the review of rare earth-related export license applications in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, the Ministry of Commerce said Thursday.

    China has approved a certain number of compliant applications in accordance with the law and will continue to strengthen the review and approval of such applications, ministry spokesperson He Yadong said at a press conference when answering a question on rare earth exports.

    China is willing to enhance communication and dialogue with relevant countries on export controls and actively promote the facilitation of compliant trade, He added. 

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 20, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 20, 2025.

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland CUHRIG/Getty This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room

    Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran
    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic. Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling

    Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University MAYA LAB/Shutterstock Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that

    A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal. The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the

    6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Miller, Lecturer in Education (Classroom Management), Southern Cross University Wander Women/ Getty Images Bullying is arguably one of the most serious issues facing Australia’s schools. About one in four students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied regularly. This can have serious and lasting

    Keith Rankin Analysis – America’s imperial ‘gifts’: ‘Crusader Democracy’ and ‘Christian Nationalism’
    Analysis by Keith Rankin. The United States has always fancied itself as the founder of modern democracy (aka ‘Democracy’). And, although that country has been self-absorbed for most of its history, it has always sensed that Democracy was its greatest export. ‘America’ became involved in Africa and the ‘Middle East’ very early in its history.

    Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University Australia’s Jaclyn Narracott competes in the women’s skeleton at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images As the end of the 2024-25 financial year nears, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), in partnership with the

    Bribe or community benefit? Sweeteners smoothing the way for renewables projects need to be done right
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University Louise Beaumont/Getty When a renewable energy developer announces a new project, there’s one big question mark – how will nearby communities react? Community pushback has scuttled many renewables projects. Sometimes, communities are angry landowners hosting

    Despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever. How can we make sense of this?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lovering, Lecturer in International Relations, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Recent controversies over New Zealand’s Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunch program have revolved around the apparent shortcomings of the food and its delivery. Stories of inedible meals, scalding packaging and

    Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania When the Western Australian state government handed down its state budget on Thursday, it showed a balance sheet solidly in the black with a A$2.5 billion surplus. But, as it has for seven years, the state has received an outsized

    Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Jeffery, Sessional Academic, Discipline of Film Studies, University of Sydney Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images When I was eight years old, on a Saturday night before surf lifesaving training, my dad put on the film Jaws and it changed my life forever. Unlike the

    New cases of meningococcal disease have been detected. What are the symptoms? And who can get vaccinated?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist; Clinical Researcher, University of Sydney Two Tasmanian women have been hospitalised with invasive meningococcal disease, bringing the number of cases nationally so far this year to 48. Health authorities are urging people to watch for symptoms and to check if

    Grattan on Friday: Sussan Ley has her first big outing with the national media next week, so here are some questions for her
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra On Wednesday, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley will front the National Press Club. So why is that a big deal? For one thing, her predecessor Peter Dutton never appeared there as opposition leader. For another, it’s a formidable forum for a

    A war on diplomacy itself – Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran
    ANALYSIS: By Joe Hendren Had Israel not launched its unprovoked attack on Iran on Friday night, in direct violation of the UN Charter, Iran would now be taking part in the sixth round of negotiations concerning the future of its nuclear programme, meeting with representatives from the United States in Muscat, the capital of Oman.

    Why New Zealand has paused funding to the Cook Islands over China deal
    BACKGROUNDER: By Christina Persico, RNZ Pacific bulletin editor/presenter;Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific; and Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist New Zealand has paused $18.2 million in development assistance funding to the Cook Islands after its government signed partnership agreements with China earlier this year. This move is causing consternation in the realm country, with one local

    Egyptian crackdown on Gaza blockade busters but Kiwi activists vow to ‘defeat genocide’
    SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Ōtautahi and Ava Mulla in Cairo Hope for freedom for Palestinians remains high among a group of trauma-struck New Zealanders in Cairo. In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo

    The 28 Days Later franchise redefined zombie films. But the undead have an old, rich and varied history
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher White, Historian, The University of Queensland The history of the dead – or, more precisely, the history of the living’s fascination with the dead – is an intriguing one. As a researcher of the supernatural, I’m often pulled aside at conferences or at the school gate,

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 20, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 20, 2025.

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    Mark Brown: Cook Islands ‘not consulted’ on NZ-China agreements
    By Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific journalist Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown has suggested a double standard, saying he was “not privy to or consulted on” agreements New Zealand may enter into with China. New Zealand Foreign Minister Winston Peters has paused $18.2 million in development assistance to the Cook Islands due to a lack

    West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland CUHRIG/Getty This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room

    Eugene Doyle: How centrifugal forces have been unleashed in Iran
    COMMENTARY: By Eugene Doyle The surprise US-Israeli attack on Iran is literally and figuratively designed to unleash centrifugal forces in the Islamic Republic. Two nuclear powers are currently involved in the bombing of the nuclear facilities of a third state. One of them, the US has — for the moment — limited itself to handling

    Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University MAYA LAB/Shutterstock Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that

    A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal. The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the

    6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Miller, Lecturer in Education (Classroom Management), Southern Cross University Wander Women/ Getty Images Bullying is arguably one of the most serious issues facing Australia’s schools. About one in four students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied regularly. This can have serious and lasting

    Keith Rankin Analysis – America’s imperial ‘gifts’: ‘Crusader Democracy’ and ‘Christian Nationalism’
    Analysis by Keith Rankin. The United States has always fancied itself as the founder of modern democracy (aka ‘Democracy’). And, although that country has been self-absorbed for most of its history, it has always sensed that Democracy was its greatest export. ‘America’ became involved in Africa and the ‘Middle East’ very early in its history.

    Many elite athletes live below the poverty line. Tax-deductible donations won’t solve the problem
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University Australia’s Jaclyn Narracott competes in the women’s skeleton at the Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics. Joe Klamar/AFP via Getty Images As the end of the 2024-25 financial year nears, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC), in partnership with the

    Bribe or community benefit? Sweeteners smoothing the way for renewables projects need to be done right
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hugh Breakey, Deputy Director, Institute for Ethics, Governance & Law, Griffith University Louise Beaumont/Getty When a renewable energy developer announces a new project, there’s one big question mark – how will nearby communities react? Community pushback has scuttled many renewables projects. Sometimes, communities are angry landowners hosting

    Despite decades of cost cutting, governments spend more than ever. How can we make sense of this?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Lovering, Lecturer in International Relations, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Getty Images Recent controversies over New Zealand’s Ka Ora, Ka Ako school lunch program have revolved around the apparent shortcomings of the food and its delivery. Stories of inedible meals, scalding packaging and

    Is there any hope for a fairer carve-up of the GST between the states?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Saul Eslake, Vice-Chancellor’s Fellow, University of Tasmania When the Western Australian state government handed down its state budget on Thursday, it showed a balance sheet solidly in the black with a A$2.5 billion surplus. But, as it has for seven years, the state has received an outsized

    Jaws at 50: the first summer blockbuster is still a film that bites – even when the shark didn’t work
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Will Jeffery, Sessional Academic, Discipline of Film Studies, University of Sydney Photo by Sunset Boulevard/Corbis via Getty Images When I was eight years old, on a Saturday night before surf lifesaving training, my dad put on the film Jaws and it changed my life forever. Unlike the

    New cases of meningococcal disease have been detected. What are the symptoms? And who can get vaccinated?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist; Clinical Researcher, University of Sydney Two Tasmanian women have been hospitalised with invasive meningococcal disease, bringing the number of cases nationally so far this year to 48. Health authorities are urging people to watch for symptoms and to check if

    Grattan on Friday: Sussan Ley has her first big outing with the national media next week, so here are some questions for her
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra On Wednesday, Opposition Leader Sussan Ley will front the National Press Club. So why is that a big deal? For one thing, her predecessor Peter Dutton never appeared there as opposition leader. For another, it’s a formidable forum for a

    A war on diplomacy itself – Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran
    ANALYSIS: By Joe Hendren Had Israel not launched its unprovoked attack on Iran on Friday night, in direct violation of the UN Charter, Iran would now be taking part in the sixth round of negotiations concerning the future of its nuclear programme, meeting with representatives from the United States in Muscat, the capital of Oman.

    Why New Zealand has paused funding to the Cook Islands over China deal
    BACKGROUNDER: By Christina Persico, RNZ Pacific bulletin editor/presenter;Caleb Fotheringham, RNZ Pacific; and Don Wiseman, RNZ Pacific senior journalist New Zealand has paused $18.2 million in development assistance funding to the Cook Islands after its government signed partnership agreements with China earlier this year. This move is causing consternation in the realm country, with one local

    Egyptian crackdown on Gaza blockade busters but Kiwi activists vow to ‘defeat genocide’
    SPECIAL REPORT: By Saige England in Ōtautahi and Ava Mulla in Cairo Hope for freedom for Palestinians remains high among a group of trauma-struck New Zealanders in Cairo. In spite of extensive planning, the Global March To Gaza (GMTG) delegation of about 4000 international aid volunteers was thwarted in its mission to walk from Cairo

    The 28 Days Later franchise redefined zombie films. But the undead have an old, rich and varied history
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher White, Historian, The University of Queensland The history of the dead – or, more precisely, the history of the living’s fascination with the dead – is an intriguing one. As a researcher of the supernatural, I’m often pulled aside at conferences or at the school gate,

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI: Mandatory notice of shareholding 19 June 2025

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    IDEX Biometrics ASA (“IDEX”) discloses the following on behalf of a shareholder.

    Reference is made to the stock exchange notice from IDEX Biometrics ASA on 15 June 2025 regarding the share issue to personnel. The subscription and allocation have been completed on 19 June 2025.

    Sundt AS holds 230,491,498 shares in IDEX. This is unchanged from the previous notice on 14 April 2025. Following registration of the share capital increase for the personnel placement, the ownership will represent 4.87 % of the shares and voting rights in IDEX.

    About this notice:

    This notice was issued by Kristian Flaten, CFO, on 20 June 2025 at 04:15 CET on behalf of IDEX Biometrics ASA. The information shall be disclosed according to section 4-2 of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act (STA) and published in accordance with section 5-12 of the STA.

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI: Mandatory notice of shareholding 19 June 2025 – II

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    IDEX Biometrics ASA (“IDEX”) discloses the following on behalf of a shareholder.

    Reference is made to the stock exchange notice from IDEX Biometrics ASA on 15 June 2025 regarding the share issue to personnel, and the notice regarding mandatory notification of trades on 20 June 2025. The subscription and allocation have been completed on 19 June 2025.

    Anders Storbråten, including associated company Pinchcliffe AS, will hold 975,635,000 shares in IDEX. Following registration of the share capital increase for the personnel placement, the ownership will represent 20.62 % of the shares and voting rights in IDEX.

    About this notice:

    This notice was issued by Kristian Flaten, CFO, on 20 June 2025 at 04:22 CET on behalf of IDEX Biometrics ASA. The information shall be disclosed according to section 4-2 of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act (STA) and published in accordance with section 5-12 of the STA.

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI: IDEX Biometrics ASA: Mandatory notification of trades – 19 June 2025

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    Reference is made to the stock exchange notice from IDEX Biometrics ASA on 15 June 2025 regarding the share issue to personnel. The subscription and allocation have been completed on 19 June 2025.

    IDEX Biometrics ASA informs of primary insider transactions as listed in the attached notifications.

    For further information contact:

    Kristian Flaten, CFO, Tel: +47 95092322

    E-mail: ir@idexbiometrics.com

    About this notice:

    This notice was issued by Kristian Flaten, CFO, on 20 June 2025 at 04:00 CET on behalf of IDEX Biometrics ASA. This information is subject to the disclosure requirements pursuant to Article 19 of the EU Market Abuse Regulation and Section 5-12 of the Norwegian Securities Trading Act.

    Attachments

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic.

    While considering a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran’s supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him “an easy target”. He has demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.

    Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program.

    So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid?

    Has Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ fully collapsed?

    Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure.

    This so-called “axis of resistance” includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran’s influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria before it was toppled last year.

    These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement.

    However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network.

    Hezbollah — once Iran’s most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

    In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad’s regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region.

    That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen.

    The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen.

    Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region’s only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region.

    The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF’s more hardline factions, promised to do so:

    If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation.

    Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

    Will Iran’s regional and global allies step in?

    Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal.

    For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    In a sign of Pakistan’s importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country’s army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour.

    Pakistan’s leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran’s president “unwavering solidarity” in the “face of Israel’s unprovoked aggression”. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will “think many times before taking on Pakistan”.

    These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention.

    Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war.

    In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations.

    These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel’s actions and urged de-escalation.

    It’s unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US.

    Iran’s key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel’s strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council.

    However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US.

    Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran’s stability. This is due to Iran’s long-standing “Look East” policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy.

    However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly.

    Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia’s closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn’t want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration.

    China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war? – https://theconversation.com/who-are-irans-allies-and-would-any-help-if-the-us-joins-israel-in-its-war-259265

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    As Israel continues its attacks on Iran, US President Donald Trump and other global leaders are hardening their stance against the Islamic Republic.

    While considering a US attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump has threatened Iran’s supreme leader, claiming to know his location and calling him “an easy target”. He has demanded “unconditional surrender” from Iran.

    Meanwhile, countries such as Germany, Canada, the UK and Australia have toughened their rhetoric, demanding Iran fully abandon its nuclear program.

    So, as the pressure mounts on Iran, has it been left to fight alone? Or does it have allies that could come to its aid?

    Has Iran’s ‘axis of resistance’ fully collapsed?

    Iran has long relied on a network of allied paramilitary groups across the Middle East as part of its deterrence strategy. This approach has largely shielded it from direct military strikes by the US or Israel, despite constant threats and pressure.

    This so-called “axis of resistance” includes groups such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) in Iraq, the Houthi militants in Yemen, as well as Hamas in Gaza, which has long been under Iran’s influence to varying degrees. Iran also supported Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria before it was toppled last year.

    These groups have served both as a regional buffer and as a means for Iran to project power without direct engagement.

    However, over the past two years, Israel has dealt significant blows to the network.

    Hezbollah — once Iran’s most powerful non-state ally — has been effectively neutralised after months of attacks by Israel. Its weapons stocks were systematically targeted and destroyed across Lebanon. And the group suffered a major psychological and strategic loss with the assassination of its most influential leader, Hassan Nasrallah.

    In Syria, Iranian-backed militias have been largely expelled following the fall of Assad’s regime, stripping Iran of another key foothold in the region.

    That said, Iran maintains strong influence in Iraq and Yemen.

    The PMF in Iraq, with an estimated 200,000 fighters, remains formidable. The Houthis have similarly sized contingent of fighters in Yemen.

    Should the situation escalate into an existential threat to Iran — as the region’s only Shiite-led state — religious solidarity could drive these groups to become actively involved. This would rapidly expand the war across the region.

    The PMF, for instance, could launch attacks on the 2,500 US troops stationed in Iraq. Indeed, the head of Kata’ib Hezbollah, one of the PMF’s more hardline factions, promised to do so:

    If America dares to intervene in the war, we will directly target its interests and military bases spread across the region without hesitation.

    Iran itself could also target US bases in the Persian Gulf countries with ballistic missiles, as well as close the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil supply flows.

    Will Iran’s regional and global allies step in?

    Several regional powers maintain close ties with Iran. The most notable among them is Pakistan — the only Islamic country with a nuclear arsenal.

    For weeks, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has tried to align Iran more closely with Pakistan in countering Israel’s actions in Gaza.

    In a sign of Pakistan’s importance in the Israel-Iran war, Trump has met with the country’s army chief in Washington as he weighs a possible strike on its neighbour.

    Pakistan’s leaders have also made their allegiances very clear. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has offered Iran’s president “unwavering solidarity” in the “face of Israel’s unprovoked aggression”. And Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Asif recently said in an interview Israel will “think many times before taking on Pakistan”.

    These statements signal a firm stance without explicitly committing to intervention.

    Yet, Pakistan has also been working to de-escalate tensions. It has urged other Muslim-majority nations and its strategic partner, China, to intervene diplomatically before the violence spirals into a broader regional war.

    In recent years, Iran has also made diplomatic overtures to former regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, in order to improve relations.

    These shifts have helped rally broader regional support for Iran. Nearly two dozen Muslim-majority countries — including some that maintain diplomatic relations with Israel — have jointly condemned Israel’s actions and urged de-escalation.

    It’s unlikely, though, that regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey would support Iran materially, given their strong alliances with the US.

    Iran’s key global allies, Russia and China, have also condemned Israel’s strikes. They have previously shielded Tehran from punitive resolutions at the UN Security Council.

    However, neither power appears willing — at least for now — to escalate the confrontation by providing direct military support to Iran or engaging in a standoff with Israel and the US.

    Theoretically, this could change if the conflict widens and Washington openly pursues a regime change strategy in Tehran. Both nations have major geopolitical and security interests in Iran’s stability. This is due to Iran’s long-standing “Look East” policy and the impact its instability could have on the region and the global economy.

    However, at the current stage, many analysts believe both are unlikely to get involved directly.

    Moscow stayed on the sidelines when Assad’s regime collapsed in Syria, one of Russia’s closest allies in the region. Not only is it focused on its war in Ukraine, Russia also wouldn’t want to endanger improving ties with the Trump administration.

    China has offered Iran strong rhetorical support, but history suggests it has little interest in getting directly involved in Middle Eastern conflicts.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Who are Iran’s allies? And would any help if the US joins Israel in its war? – https://theconversation.com/who-are-irans-allies-and-would-any-help-if-the-us-joins-israel-in-its-war-259265

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hessom Razavi, Clinical Associate Professor of Ophthalmology, The University of Western Australia

    We are at a dinner party in suburban Perth, a home away from home for our diaspora. As guests arrive, a Persian ballad plays in the background: Morq-e Sahar (Dawn Bird), a freedom song, a century-old protest against dictatorships and tyranny in Iran. This version was sung by the late Mohammad-Reza Shajarian, Iran’s most decorated maestro.

    Dawn bird, lament!
    Make my brand burn even more.
    With the sparks from your sigh, break
    And turn this cage upside down.

    Shajarian’s virtuoso voice frames an old question. One I’ve heard, it seems, at every Iranian gathering since my childhood. It hangs in the air like a cloud, unanswered, as guests greet each other with customary bowing and rooboosi (cheek kissing). We settle around a table laden with âjil (trail mix), fruit and wine, the smell of saffron rice and ghorme sabzi (herb stew) all around.

    For me, the scene is both familial and familiar. As is the question, which circles back around. “When will this regime change?” someone asks. The “regime” is Nezâm-e Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi-ye Irân, or the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    A missing voice

    Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion against Iran last week, there has been a voice sometimes missing in the mainstream coverage – that of the Iranian people themselves.

    “Israel is not our enemy, the regime is our enemy,” chant many Iranians in Tehran and in the diaspora, a common sentiment in our community. They cite the regime that they have endured for 46 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution: a government most of them oppose and reject, with the vast majority of Iranians preferring democratic, if not secular, reform.

    I hear some Iranians, on social media and in conversation with people who live there, commending Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for assassinating Iran’s top military brass. These are the leaders of the Sepah, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the most powerful branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. Together with the mullahs – Iran’s Shia Muslim clerical class – they form the backbone of Iran’s government and economy.

    So far, Israel has assassinated Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as Mohammad Kazemi, its intelligence chief, plus senior nuclear scientists and dozens of other officers. Israel has also indicated an interest in killing Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

    Damet garm, aghayeh Netanyahu,” some Iranians are saying, literally “may your breath be warm”, or “good job, Netanyahu”. Amid the terror and confusion – not to mention the civilian deaths, so far, of over 200 Iranians – there is a rare and distinct sense of hope.

    State of corruption

    In view of Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza, this support for Israel may come as a surprise to many Australians, and Western liberals in general. Certainly, reconciling Israel’s role in Gaza versus Iran is jarring.

    But for now, I hear some Iranians saying “maybe our regime can finally be toppled”. Maybe Iran can reclaim its place in the international community, as the proud and prosperous nation it should be? As this crisis escalates, as buildings collapse and distressed Tehranis, including my family, flee the capital for the safety of the countryside, there is a heady sense of possibility.

    Wing-tied nightingale come out of the corner of your cage, and
    Sing the song of freedom for human kind.
    With your fiery breath ignite,
    The breath of this peopled land …

    I understand the allure of this hope; to an extent, I feel it myself. My family lives in Australia, not Iran, precisely because of the Iranian regime’s tyranny. We fled Iran in 1983 due to political persecution, after most of the adults in our extended family were arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by the government.

    Two of my imprisoned uncles and one of my aunties were executed. Another uncle was beaten to death in custody. My grandfather, a noble old man, was imprisoned and tortured. We were far from unique; during the 1980s, the government imprisoned tens of thousands of its own people, executing many thousands of them.

    Little has changed since then. The Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards have shown a pervasive disregard for human rights. They execute more of their own people than any country except China. They are a world leader in the use of torture; they deny freedoms of expression and press, association and assembly; they discriminate against women, girls, religious minorities, LGBTI people, and refugees. Tightly controlled elections ensure the success of desired candidates.

    Freedom House, a nonprofit organisation based in the US, gives Iran a score of 11 out of 100 for its provision of political rights and civil liberties. For many Iranians, it felt overdue when, in 2019, the US listed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation, a decision followed by other countries, including Canada and Sweden. In 2023, the European parliament overwhelmingly voted for a resolution to do the same, with calls to expedite this motion in early 2025.

    In parallel to their human rights abuses, the Revolutionary Guard has hobbled the Iranian economy. Their corruption, financial incompetence and operation of black markets have compounded the effects of international sanctions. Consequently, the Iranian rial hit a historic low this year. It is now worth around one twentieth of its value in 2015.

    People’s life savings have dwindled in value, rendering older Iranians financially vulnerable. Inflation was 38.7% in May of this year, down from highs of over 40%. My family in Iran experience this as grocery and commodity prices that may rise in a single day, higher in the afternoon than in the morning. Some cities have experienced water cuts and power outages.

    While it hasn’t yet qualified as a failed state, Iran has been failing.

    All of this has occurred despite the country being richly endowed with the second- and third-highest natural gas and oil reserves in the world, respectively. Iran has a GDP of over $US404 billion – 36th in the world. Its youth are highly educated and literate, with more women enrolled in universities than men.

    Rather than accelerating the nation’s domestic development, however, the Iranian government has by its own admission spent tens of billions of dollars to expand its empire by funding terrorist proxies: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the recently deposed Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    The Iranian people have suffered financially, but the Revolutionary Guards have not. They are estimated to control at least 10%, and up to 50%, of the country’s total economy, including up to an estimated 50% share of Iran’s US$50 billion per year oil profits. They have achieved this by commandeering an industrial empire, made up of hundreds of commercial companies, trusts, subsidiaries and nominally charitable foundations.

    A further US$2 billion or more per year comes from the government’s military budget, with periodic boosts during crises. Add to this the alleged shadowy operation of black markets, extortion, and the smuggling of alcohol, narcotics and weapons, accounting for an estimated US$12 billion per year in revenue.

    Contemplating this corruption, I am reminded of an anecdote from a personal associate who worked for a firm affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. They shared stories of officers, the nation’s purported “guardians of Islam”, hosting parties where alcohol, firearms and sex workers were readily available.

    My associate recounted several instances of fraud and theft, one of them monumental in scale. In this “tea smuggling scandal”, the Revolutionary Guard defrauded billions of dollars from a government fund by illicitly exchanging some funds on the open market, falsely labelling cheap tea to on-sell as superior quality tea, and falsely labelling domestically produced machinery as “Made in Germany”.

    “They’re untouchable, and they know it”, my associate said. Another Iranian community member described them to me as “Iran’s super-mafia”.

    Speaking to family in Iran, they say many of the middle tier Revolutionary Guards live in their own shahrak-ha (towns) with dedicated markets, schools and resorts. Many of the Guards’ elite, meanwhile, live in mansions in the exclusive parts of north Tehran, with children who pursue conspicuously American “lifestyles of the rich and famous”. For an organisation that leads the chants of “marg bar America!” (death to America), one wonders if they see the irony in this.

    Turn our dark night to dawn

    I find myself sickened by the events of this war, and the harm it is causing. Struck with anxiety, some of our family members in Tehran haven’t slept for days. “The Israeli bombardments are non-stop, and so loud,” one family member told me.

    This week our extended family has struggled frantically to leave Tehran. Petrol is hard to come by and, in a mass exodus, the bumper-to-bumper traffic stands still for hours. I know some of the neighbourhoods being bombed; we lived in one of them in my childhood.

    “For every military commander that’s assassinated, a whole building might collapse, and with a dozen civilians trapped or killed,” another person told me, intimating that the civilian toll is higher than official counts.

    I am also worried about the raised hopes of Iranians. I have seen this before, when a spark – sometimes an inspirational act of courage from an ordinary citizen – leads to public surges in solidarity. At these moments during my childhood, my parents would tell me that the regime’s time was limited, it’s downfall inevitable. Iranians would see better days and people power would prevail.

    Truth and goodness rise like cream, my Dad would say, as if echoing Dr Martin Luther King’s arc of the moral universe bending towards justice.

    A beautiful sentiment no doubt, but one that has become difficult to believe over time. It often appears that the universe’s arc bends towards power, not justice. Fairness seems the exception, hardly the rule. At the time, Dad’s reassurances were protective, even noble. But as the 1979 revolution and its aftermath have shown, might beats right most days of the week.

    The cruelty of the cruel and the tyranny of the hunter
    Have blown away my nest.
    O God, O Heavens, O Nature,
    Turn our dark night to dawn.

    As I explain to Australian friends: how can a people surpass a government that has (1) the military on its side, (2) a stranglehold on oil revenue, and (3) a purported mandate from God?

    Guns, money and a holy book – a hard trifecta to crack, and powerful enough to attract a sufficient minority of cronies, bottom feeders and sycophants.

    What’s the size of this ruling minority? It’s difficult to be sure, but a 2023 survey of 158,000 respondents within Iran found that only 15% supported the Islamic Republic. Small, but sufficient to produce crowds burning American and Israeli flags. I’ve always marvelled at the regime’s ability to manufacture these images; I’m told by associates that they now use AI to produce some of these.

    Women Life Freedom

    As current events unfold, I find myself deeply sceptical of all the political actors, whether Iranian, Israeli, American, Arab or Russian. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, none of them have shown any serious interest in supporting democratic reform in Iran. “They’ve all profited from this government,” a senior community member told me. “Why would that change now?”

    For the sake of sanity, I find myself searching for credible sources of hope. The only one I settle on is faith in the Iranian people themselves. This the culture that has surrounded me since childhood, the qualities I’ve seen first hand in my countrywomen and men, whether young or old, home or abroad, Muslim, Bahai or secular: a resilience, a resourcefulness, a propensity for joy, a confidence and pride in culture, and an ability to prevail, over and again.

    It’s a new spring, roses are in bloom…
    …O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.

    These qualities are periodically staged for the world to see. Iranian people have not taken their oppression lying down, rising in (mainly) peaceful protests. There have been some 10 mass protests since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The largest of these was the Green Movement in 2009, when it was estimated that over a million citizens marched in Tehran alone. As recently as May 2025, strikes took place in over 150 cities, involving hundreds of thousands of workers.

    For the most part, these demonstrations have been met with severe repression by state authorities. One episode, from September 2022, deserves special mention. The world watched in horror as the regime cracked down on young women in Iran. This was their response to the Zan Zendegi Azadi (Woman Life Freedom) movement, where mass protests were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Jina Amini.

    Amini was a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who had been detained by the government’s “Morality Police” for wearing an improper hijab. Three days into her detention she died under suspicious circumstances. A leaked CT scan showed a skull fracture and brain haemorrhage. This corroborated eyewitness accounts that Amini had been severely beaten by police.

    Intentionally or not, a dress code infringement had been punished by death. Even for Iranians long accustomed to state violence, this was too much. Mass protests erupted in more than 100 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

    The protests were led by women, many of them defiantly removing their headscarves. True to its nature, the regime responded violently. In the months that followed, over 20,000 protesters were imprisoned, many later testifying to having been tortured through electric shock, flogging, waterboarding and rape.

    Human Rights Watch estimates that over 500 civilians – including 68 children and adolescents – were killed by security forces, which included the paramilitary Basijis, Revolutionary Guard Corps, police and prison guards.

    Things would get darker. That December the regime was accused of deliberately poisoning over 1,200 students at Kharazmi and Ark universities on the eve of a planned protest. Soon thereafter, there were allegations of toxic gas attacks against thousands of schoolgirls, in apparent retaliation for removing their hijabs. By 2024, the UN had accused Iran of a coordinated campaign of crimes against humanity, a claim rejected by the regime.

    As an eye surgeon, I was distressed to read a letter signed by over 100 Iranian ophthalmologists detailing eye injuries among protesters. The letter alleged that security forces had deliberately targeted people’s eyes with teargas canisters, rubber bullets and shotgun fire, resulting in traumatic injuries and irreversible blindness among protesters.

    Dew drops are falling from my cloudy eyes
    This cage, like my heart, is narrow and dark.
    O fiery sigh set alight this cage
    O fate, do not pick the flower of my life.

    There were separate reports of women’s faces and genitals being targeted by shotgun fire. The regime appeared to have interfered with medical services: protestors transported to police stations in ambulances were arrested after surgery or denied treatment. Doctors were reportedly coerced to supply false death certificates to disguise the true cause of protestors’ deaths. The British Medical Journal documented healthcare professionals being arrested, intimidated, kidnapped or killed in retaliation for treating protesters.

    If we didn’t know it already, Zan Zendegi Azadi reminded us of the risks, if not futility, of advocating for change in Iran.

    When mass civil movements like this, performed ten times over, have not worked, what alternatives are the people left with? Brutalised and impoverished by their own government, should we be surprised when a traditionally Islamic people welcome a Jewish state’s decapitation of their political leaders? Is it not tempting, even if lazy, to invoke the historical comparison of Cyrus the Great, Persian King of the Achaemenid Empire, who freed the Jewish people from Babylonian captivity?

    For the people of Iran and Israel – at the risk of naivety and romanticism – are we approaching an age of karma?

    O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.
    O heart-lost bird, shorten, shorten, shorten,
    The tale of separation.

    An uncertain scenario

    Regarding Operation Rising Lion, it is safe to say that Iranians, like any healthy community, hold a diversity of views.

    At one end of the spectrum, those who unconditionally condemn Israel’s attack should consider that the Iranian government has stockpiled over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. While not enough to build a nuclear warhead, this is far more enriched uranium than is needed for peaceful purposes.

    The Iranian government has also vowed to “wipe Israel off the map” for decades. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians. In other words, Iran has said to Israel “we want to annihilate you, we’ll celebrate your deaths, and we could do it with nuclear weapons if we wished to”.

    Following Iran’s recent breach of its nonproliferation obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel says it has acted lawfully in attacking Iran for self-defense – a claim disputed by some international law experts. Even if one does not agree with Israel’s action, it is evident that they’ve long been baited by Iran.

    On the other side of the coin, Iranians who salute Israel and the US as their saviours should take caution. The US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declared as recently as March 2025 that there was no evidence that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, a finding corroborated by over a dozen other US intelligence elements including the CIA, the National Security Agency, and the Insitute for Defense Analyses.

    One cannot ignore the disturbing echoes of the 2003 war on Iraq, where the absence of evidence for weapons of mass destruction was intentionally misrepresented by the US and UK governments. The consequences for Iraq have been disastrous.

    As for Netanyahu and his administration, they have shown a ruthless pursuit of narrow self-interest in Gaza. The deaths and injuries inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on more than 50,000 Palestinian children appear to have done nothing to quell their ambitions.

    With regards to Netanyahu himself, he is facing corruption charges that could result in his domestic imprisonment and he has more recently been the subject of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, including starvation and murder.

    What can Iranians learn from this? The evidence suggests this could be a war of passion and opportunism for Israel, rather than one of legitimate self-defence. In any case, they are not waging it for the benefit of Iranians.

    Israel has a tendency to set ambitious military goals that it can’t achieve. While it promises Operation Rising Lion will soon end, its track record suggests otherwise.

    A protracted conflict would see Iran’s civilian toll rise much higher. Power outages and fuel shortages have already begun; what happens once water, medical and food scarcity set in? Since Iran doesn’t allow many international aid agencies onto its soil, who will come to the rescue of Iranians as things escalate?

    Truth’s life has come to an end
    Faith and fidelity have been replaced by the shield of war.
    Lover’s lament and beloved’s coyness,
    Are but lies and have no power.

    Even if Israel succeeds in capturing or killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, what happens next? With the Revolutionary Guard’s roots in place, there is no guarantee, and in fact a low likelihood, of true democratic reform. In recent times, foreign interference in the region has not gone well. Look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria: all evidence of catastrophic worsening after the removal of autocrats.

    This is a complex and uncertain scenario with little room for moral grandstanding. Disabling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities could be a net win, but the manner in which it is being done sets a dangerous precedent. For the Iranian people, Netanyahu’s ambitions could ultimately prove both heroic and villainous.

    The cup of the rich is full of pure wine,
    Our cup is filled with our heart’s blood.
    O anxious heart, cry out aloud
    And avoid those who have powerful hands.

    As I watch coverage of the war, I find myself drifting back to Shajarian’s voice and to Morq-e Sahar, probably for distraction and comfort. What is real is my faith in my fellow Iranians. Many examples comes to mind. One, during a trip to Iran, was when I stayed with family at a roadhouse. That evening, we heard music emanating from the courtyard and followed some steps into an dark basement beneath the accommodation.

    There we found a large gathering of young Iranians, two dozen or more men and women risking the law by hanging out together to sing. We joined them as strangers, seated on the floor and holding hands at times. In the dim light, the group sang and sang, a couple of them playing instruments.

    I can’t say I knew the songs or comprehended all the lyrics; I didn’t need to, to understand their meaning. You may force our people underground, you may cage them, bombard and even kill them. But you will never extinguish their eternal Persian spirit.

    O rosy-cheeked cup-bearer, give the fiery water,
    Play a joyful tune, O charming friend.
    O sad nightingale lament from your cage.
    Because of your grief my heart is
    Full of sparks, sparks, sparks.

    Hessom Razavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime? – https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-my-heart-is-full-of-sparks-as-war-escalates-can-i-hope-for-irans-liberation-from-a-tyrannical-regime-259275

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hessom Razavi, Clinical Associate Professor of Ophthalmology, The University of Western Australia

    We are at a dinner party in suburban Perth, a home away from home for our diaspora. As guests arrive, a Persian ballad plays in the background: Morq-e Sahar (Dawn Bird), a freedom song, a century-old protest against dictatorships and tyranny in Iran. This version was sung by the late Mohammad-Reza Shajarian, Iran’s most decorated maestro.

    Dawn bird, lament!
    Make my brand burn even more.
    With the sparks from your sigh, break
    And turn this cage upside down.

    Shajarian’s virtuoso voice frames an old question. One I’ve heard, it seems, at every Iranian gathering since my childhood. It hangs in the air like a cloud, unanswered, as guests greet each other with customary bowing and rooboosi (cheek kissing). We settle around a table laden with âjil (trail mix), fruit and wine, the smell of saffron rice and ghorme sabzi (herb stew) all around.

    For me, the scene is both familial and familiar. As is the question, which circles back around. “When will this regime change?” someone asks. The “regime” is Nezâm-e Jomhuri-ye Eslâmi-ye Irân, or the Regime of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

    A missing voice

    Since the launch of Israel’s Operation Rising Lion against Iran last week, there has been a voice sometimes missing in the mainstream coverage – that of the Iranian people themselves.

    “Israel is not our enemy, the regime is our enemy,” chant many Iranians in Tehran and in the diaspora, a common sentiment in our community. They cite the regime that they have endured for 46 years since the 1979 Islamic Revolution: a government most of them oppose and reject, with the vast majority of Iranians preferring democratic, if not secular, reform.

    I hear some Iranians, on social media and in conversation with people who live there, commending Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu for assassinating Iran’s top military brass. These are the leaders of the Sepah, or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the most powerful branch of the Iranian Armed Forces. Together with the mullahs – Iran’s Shia Muslim clerical class – they form the backbone of Iran’s government and economy.

    So far, Israel has assassinated Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guards, as well as Mohammad Kazemi, its intelligence chief, plus senior nuclear scientists and dozens of other officers. Israel has also indicated an interest in killing Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, Iran’s supreme leader.

    Damet garm, aghayeh Netanyahu,” some Iranians are saying, literally “may your breath be warm”, or “good job, Netanyahu”. Amid the terror and confusion – not to mention the civilian deaths, so far, of over 200 Iranians – there is a rare and distinct sense of hope.

    State of corruption

    In view of Israel’s ongoing campaign in Gaza, this support for Israel may come as a surprise to many Australians, and Western liberals in general. Certainly, reconciling Israel’s role in Gaza versus Iran is jarring.

    But for now, I hear some Iranians saying “maybe our regime can finally be toppled”. Maybe Iran can reclaim its place in the international community, as the proud and prosperous nation it should be? As this crisis escalates, as buildings collapse and distressed Tehranis, including my family, flee the capital for the safety of the countryside, there is a heady sense of possibility.

    Wing-tied nightingale come out of the corner of your cage, and
    Sing the song of freedom for human kind.
    With your fiery breath ignite,
    The breath of this peopled land …

    I understand the allure of this hope; to an extent, I feel it myself. My family lives in Australia, not Iran, precisely because of the Iranian regime’s tyranny. We fled Iran in 1983 due to political persecution, after most of the adults in our extended family were arbitrarily arrested and imprisoned by the government.

    Two of my imprisoned uncles and one of my aunties were executed. Another uncle was beaten to death in custody. My grandfather, a noble old man, was imprisoned and tortured. We were far from unique; during the 1980s, the government imprisoned tens of thousands of its own people, executing many thousands of them.

    Little has changed since then. The Iranian regime and the Revolutionary Guards have shown a pervasive disregard for human rights. They execute more of their own people than any country except China. They are a world leader in the use of torture; they deny freedoms of expression and press, association and assembly; they discriminate against women, girls, religious minorities, LGBTI people, and refugees. Tightly controlled elections ensure the success of desired candidates.

    Freedom House, a nonprofit organisation based in the US, gives Iran a score of 11 out of 100 for its provision of political rights and civil liberties. For many Iranians, it felt overdue when, in 2019, the US listed the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organisation, a decision followed by other countries, including Canada and Sweden. In 2023, the European parliament overwhelmingly voted for a resolution to do the same, with calls to expedite this motion in early 2025.

    In parallel to their human rights abuses, the Revolutionary Guard has hobbled the Iranian economy. Their corruption, financial incompetence and operation of black markets have compounded the effects of international sanctions. Consequently, the Iranian rial hit a historic low this year. It is now worth around one twentieth of its value in 2015.

    People’s life savings have dwindled in value, rendering older Iranians financially vulnerable. Inflation was 38.7% in May of this year, down from highs of over 40%. My family in Iran experience this as grocery and commodity prices that may rise in a single day, higher in the afternoon than in the morning. Some cities have experienced water cuts and power outages.

    While it hasn’t yet qualified as a failed state, Iran has been failing.

    All of this has occurred despite the country being richly endowed with the second- and third-highest natural gas and oil reserves in the world, respectively. Iran has a GDP of over $US404 billion – 36th in the world. Its youth are highly educated and literate, with more women enrolled in universities than men.

    Rather than accelerating the nation’s domestic development, however, the Iranian government has by its own admission spent tens of billions of dollars to expand its empire by funding terrorist proxies: Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the recently deposed Assad regime in Syria, and Houthi rebels in Yemen.

    The Iranian people have suffered financially, but the Revolutionary Guards have not. They are estimated to control at least 10%, and up to 50%, of the country’s total economy, including up to an estimated 50% share of Iran’s US$50 billion per year oil profits. They have achieved this by commandeering an industrial empire, made up of hundreds of commercial companies, trusts, subsidiaries and nominally charitable foundations.

    A further US$2 billion or more per year comes from the government’s military budget, with periodic boosts during crises. Add to this the alleged shadowy operation of black markets, extortion, and the smuggling of alcohol, narcotics and weapons, accounting for an estimated US$12 billion per year in revenue.

    Contemplating this corruption, I am reminded of an anecdote from a personal associate who worked for a firm affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard. They shared stories of officers, the nation’s purported “guardians of Islam”, hosting parties where alcohol, firearms and sex workers were readily available.

    My associate recounted several instances of fraud and theft, one of them monumental in scale. In this “tea smuggling scandal”, the Revolutionary Guard defrauded billions of dollars from a government fund by illicitly exchanging some funds on the open market, falsely labelling cheap tea to on-sell as superior quality tea, and falsely labelling domestically produced machinery as “Made in Germany”.

    “They’re untouchable, and they know it”, my associate said. Another Iranian community member described them to me as “Iran’s super-mafia”.

    Speaking to family in Iran, they say many of the middle tier Revolutionary Guards live in their own shahrak-ha (towns) with dedicated markets, schools and resorts. Many of the Guards’ elite, meanwhile, live in mansions in the exclusive parts of north Tehran, with children who pursue conspicuously American “lifestyles of the rich and famous”. For an organisation that leads the chants of “marg bar America!” (death to America), one wonders if they see the irony in this.

    Turn our dark night to dawn

    I find myself sickened by the events of this war, and the harm it is causing. Struck with anxiety, some of our family members in Tehran haven’t slept for days. “The Israeli bombardments are non-stop, and so loud,” one family member told me.

    This week our extended family has struggled frantically to leave Tehran. Petrol is hard to come by and, in a mass exodus, the bumper-to-bumper traffic stands still for hours. I know some of the neighbourhoods being bombed; we lived in one of them in my childhood.

    “For every military commander that’s assassinated, a whole building might collapse, and with a dozen civilians trapped or killed,” another person told me, intimating that the civilian toll is higher than official counts.

    I am also worried about the raised hopes of Iranians. I have seen this before, when a spark – sometimes an inspirational act of courage from an ordinary citizen – leads to public surges in solidarity. At these moments during my childhood, my parents would tell me that the regime’s time was limited, it’s downfall inevitable. Iranians would see better days and people power would prevail.

    Truth and goodness rise like cream, my Dad would say, as if echoing Dr Martin Luther King’s arc of the moral universe bending towards justice.

    A beautiful sentiment no doubt, but one that has become difficult to believe over time. It often appears that the universe’s arc bends towards power, not justice. Fairness seems the exception, hardly the rule. At the time, Dad’s reassurances were protective, even noble. But as the 1979 revolution and its aftermath have shown, might beats right most days of the week.

    The cruelty of the cruel and the tyranny of the hunter
    Have blown away my nest.
    O God, O Heavens, O Nature,
    Turn our dark night to dawn.

    As I explain to Australian friends: how can a people surpass a government that has (1) the military on its side, (2) a stranglehold on oil revenue, and (3) a purported mandate from God?

    Guns, money and a holy book – a hard trifecta to crack, and powerful enough to attract a sufficient minority of cronies, bottom feeders and sycophants.

    What’s the size of this ruling minority? It’s difficult to be sure, but a 2023 survey of 158,000 respondents within Iran found that only 15% supported the Islamic Republic. Small, but sufficient to produce crowds burning American and Israeli flags. I’ve always marvelled at the regime’s ability to manufacture these images; I’m told by associates that they now use AI to produce some of these.

    Women Life Freedom

    As current events unfold, I find myself deeply sceptical of all the political actors, whether Iranian, Israeli, American, Arab or Russian. Since the Islamic revolution in 1979, none of them have shown any serious interest in supporting democratic reform in Iran. “They’ve all profited from this government,” a senior community member told me. “Why would that change now?”

    For the sake of sanity, I find myself searching for credible sources of hope. The only one I settle on is faith in the Iranian people themselves. This the culture that has surrounded me since childhood, the qualities I’ve seen first hand in my countrywomen and men, whether young or old, home or abroad, Muslim, Bahai or secular: a resilience, a resourcefulness, a propensity for joy, a confidence and pride in culture, and an ability to prevail, over and again.

    It’s a new spring, roses are in bloom…
    …O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.

    These qualities are periodically staged for the world to see. Iranian people have not taken their oppression lying down, rising in (mainly) peaceful protests. There have been some 10 mass protests since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. The largest of these was the Green Movement in 2009, when it was estimated that over a million citizens marched in Tehran alone. As recently as May 2025, strikes took place in over 150 cities, involving hundreds of thousands of workers.

    For the most part, these demonstrations have been met with severe repression by state authorities. One episode, from September 2022, deserves special mention. The world watched in horror as the regime cracked down on young women in Iran. This was their response to the Zan Zendegi Azadi (Woman Life Freedom) movement, where mass protests were triggered by the death in custody of Mahsa Jina Amini.

    Amini was a 22-year-old Kurdish-Iranian woman who had been detained by the government’s “Morality Police” for wearing an improper hijab. Three days into her detention she died under suspicious circumstances. A leaked CT scan showed a skull fracture and brain haemorrhage. This corroborated eyewitness accounts that Amini had been severely beaten by police.

    Intentionally or not, a dress code infringement had been punished by death. Even for Iranians long accustomed to state violence, this was too much. Mass protests erupted in more than 100 cities across all of Iran’s 31 provinces.

    The protests were led by women, many of them defiantly removing their headscarves. True to its nature, the regime responded violently. In the months that followed, over 20,000 protesters were imprisoned, many later testifying to having been tortured through electric shock, flogging, waterboarding and rape.

    Human Rights Watch estimates that over 500 civilians – including 68 children and adolescents – were killed by security forces, which included the paramilitary Basijis, Revolutionary Guard Corps, police and prison guards.

    Things would get darker. That December the regime was accused of deliberately poisoning over 1,200 students at Kharazmi and Ark universities on the eve of a planned protest. Soon thereafter, there were allegations of toxic gas attacks against thousands of schoolgirls, in apparent retaliation for removing their hijabs. By 2024, the UN had accused Iran of a coordinated campaign of crimes against humanity, a claim rejected by the regime.

    As an eye surgeon, I was distressed to read a letter signed by over 100 Iranian ophthalmologists detailing eye injuries among protesters. The letter alleged that security forces had deliberately targeted people’s eyes with teargas canisters, rubber bullets and shotgun fire, resulting in traumatic injuries and irreversible blindness among protesters.

    Dew drops are falling from my cloudy eyes
    This cage, like my heart, is narrow and dark.
    O fiery sigh set alight this cage
    O fate, do not pick the flower of my life.

    There were separate reports of women’s faces and genitals being targeted by shotgun fire. The regime appeared to have interfered with medical services: protestors transported to police stations in ambulances were arrested after surgery or denied treatment. Doctors were reportedly coerced to supply false death certificates to disguise the true cause of protestors’ deaths. The British Medical Journal documented healthcare professionals being arrested, intimidated, kidnapped or killed in retaliation for treating protesters.

    If we didn’t know it already, Zan Zendegi Azadi reminded us of the risks, if not futility, of advocating for change in Iran.

    When mass civil movements like this, performed ten times over, have not worked, what alternatives are the people left with? Brutalised and impoverished by their own government, should we be surprised when a traditionally Islamic people welcome a Jewish state’s decapitation of their political leaders? Is it not tempting, even if lazy, to invoke the historical comparison of Cyrus the Great, Persian King of the Achaemenid Empire, who freed the Jewish people from Babylonian captivity?

    For the people of Iran and Israel – at the risk of naivety and romanticism – are we approaching an age of karma?

    O rose, look towards this lover,
    Look again, again, again.
    O heart-lost bird, shorten, shorten, shorten,
    The tale of separation.

    An uncertain scenario

    Regarding Operation Rising Lion, it is safe to say that Iranians, like any healthy community, hold a diversity of views.

    At one end of the spectrum, those who unconditionally condemn Israel’s attack should consider that the Iranian government has stockpiled over 400 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium. While not enough to build a nuclear warhead, this is far more enriched uranium than is needed for peaceful purposes.

    The Iranian government has also vowed to “wipe Israel off the map” for decades. Iran’s Ayatollah Khamenei lauded the October 7 terrorist attack by Hamas on Israeli civilians. In other words, Iran has said to Israel “we want to annihilate you, we’ll celebrate your deaths, and we could do it with nuclear weapons if we wished to”.

    Following Iran’s recent breach of its nonproliferation obligations to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Israel says it has acted lawfully in attacking Iran for self-defense – a claim disputed by some international law experts. Even if one does not agree with Israel’s action, it is evident that they’ve long been baited by Iran.

    On the other side of the coin, Iranians who salute Israel and the US as their saviours should take caution. The US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard declared as recently as March 2025 that there was no evidence that Iran was actively pursuing nuclear weapons, a finding corroborated by over a dozen other US intelligence elements including the CIA, the National Security Agency, and the Insitute for Defense Analyses.

    One cannot ignore the disturbing echoes of the 2003 war on Iraq, where the absence of evidence for weapons of mass destruction was intentionally misrepresented by the US and UK governments. The consequences for Iraq have been disastrous.

    As for Netanyahu and his administration, they have shown a ruthless pursuit of narrow self-interest in Gaza. The deaths and injuries inflicted by the Israeli Defence Forces on more than 50,000 Palestinian children appear to have done nothing to quell their ambitions.

    With regards to Netanyahu himself, he is facing corruption charges that could result in his domestic imprisonment and he has more recently been the subject of an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, including starvation and murder.

    What can Iranians learn from this? The evidence suggests this could be a war of passion and opportunism for Israel, rather than one of legitimate self-defence. In any case, they are not waging it for the benefit of Iranians.

    Israel has a tendency to set ambitious military goals that it can’t achieve. While it promises Operation Rising Lion will soon end, its track record suggests otherwise.

    A protracted conflict would see Iran’s civilian toll rise much higher. Power outages and fuel shortages have already begun; what happens once water, medical and food scarcity set in? Since Iran doesn’t allow many international aid agencies onto its soil, who will come to the rescue of Iranians as things escalate?

    Truth’s life has come to an end
    Faith and fidelity have been replaced by the shield of war.
    Lover’s lament and beloved’s coyness,
    Are but lies and have no power.

    Even if Israel succeeds in capturing or killing Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, what happens next? With the Revolutionary Guard’s roots in place, there is no guarantee, and in fact a low likelihood, of true democratic reform. In recent times, foreign interference in the region has not gone well. Look at Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria: all evidence of catastrophic worsening after the removal of autocrats.

    This is a complex and uncertain scenario with little room for moral grandstanding. Disabling Iran’s nuclear and ballistic capabilities could be a net win, but the manner in which it is being done sets a dangerous precedent. For the Iranian people, Netanyahu’s ambitions could ultimately prove both heroic and villainous.

    The cup of the rich is full of pure wine,
    Our cup is filled with our heart’s blood.
    O anxious heart, cry out aloud
    And avoid those who have powerful hands.

    As I watch coverage of the war, I find myself drifting back to Shajarian’s voice and to Morq-e Sahar, probably for distraction and comfort. What is real is my faith in my fellow Iranians. Many examples comes to mind. One, during a trip to Iran, was when I stayed with family at a roadhouse. That evening, we heard music emanating from the courtyard and followed some steps into an dark basement beneath the accommodation.

    There we found a large gathering of young Iranians, two dozen or more men and women risking the law by hanging out together to sing. We joined them as strangers, seated on the floor and holding hands at times. In the dim light, the group sang and sang, a couple of them playing instruments.

    I can’t say I knew the songs or comprehended all the lyrics; I didn’t need to, to understand their meaning. You may force our people underground, you may cage them, bombard and even kill them. But you will never extinguish their eternal Persian spirit.

    O rosy-cheeked cup-bearer, give the fiery water,
    Play a joyful tune, O charming friend.
    O sad nightingale lament from your cage.
    Because of your grief my heart is
    Full of sparks, sparks, sparks.

    Hessom Razavi does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Friday essay: ‘my heart is full of sparks’ – as war escalates, can I hope for Iran’s liberation from a tyrannical regime? – https://theconversation.com/friday-essay-my-heart-is-full-of-sparks-as-war-escalates-can-i-hope-for-irans-liberation-from-a-tyrannical-regime-259275

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University

    Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal.

    The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s expected to start operating in 2026.

    Human rights organisations, international lawyers and some (mostly European) states have long been calling for the establishment of such a tribunal. Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, called the establishment of the tribunal:

    an important breakthrough for the international justice community and especially for the millions of Ukrainians who have been harmed by the Russian aggression.

    However, important questions remain about if it could truly hold senior Russian officials accountable.

    So, how will this new special tribunal work, and will it be effective – or necessary?

    How does the special tribunal fill the gaps left by the ICC and ICJ?

    This tribunal is separate to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

    The ICC can prosecute individuals charged with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Russian war on Ukraine. So far, it has issued arrest warrants against four Russian senior officials, including President Vladimir Putin.

    Because Russia is not a member state to the court, the court can’t exercise legal authority over what’s known in international law as a crime of aggression (when leaders of a state launch or plan a war). For the ICC to be able to exercise this jurisdiction, the aggressor state also must be a member state of the court.

    The ICJ is a different court altogether. It primarily deals with and adjudicates disputes between states, not limited to war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. It can’t hold individuals accountable, and can only exercise jurisdiction over a dispute if both states to a dispute agree.

    While the ICC seeks to establish individual criminal responsibility, the ICJ may establish state responsibility for a violation of international law.

    Currently, there are also two cases between Ukraine and Russia before the ICJ.

    Neither deals with the question of the legality of Russia’s use of force in its invasion in February 2022. Both Ukraine and Russia would need to consent to bring this issue before the court.

    So, is a new tribunal necessary?

    Yes, because the crime of aggression currently can’t be addressed by any other international court or tribunal.

    Given the limitations of what the ICJ and ICC can do, a dedicated tribunal seems the obvious solution to hold those responsible for the illegal use of force against Ukraine accountable.

    And it’s not uncommon for specialised tribunals with limited jurisdiction over a specific situation to be created.

    Other historical examples include the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia and the Special Court for Sierra Leone.

    Given the ICC’s lack of jurisdiction over the crime of aggression, the new special tribunal would complement the court’s existing investigations into war crimes and crimes against humanity.

    Who is running the new tribunal and how will it work?

    The exact content and specifics of this new tribunal will remain unknown until the draft statute of the tribunal is published. That’s a document that outlines details including the tribunal’s jurisdiction, the applicable definition of aggression and how the tribunal will function.

    At this stage, the Council of Europe has confirmed the tribunal will work within its legal framework and principles. It will be funded by an international coalition of supportive states.

    A management committee of members and associate members of the tribunal will be responsible for the election of the tribunal’s judges and prosecutors. The management committee is made up of the Council of Europe’s council of ministers and Ukraine.

    Diplomatic discussions are still ongoing at this point, but the legal process for establishing the special tribunal can begin now.

    Will this special tribunal be more effective?

    Political, legal and practical challenges for the special tribunal remain. It’s unclear if the most senior Russian state officials can and will be able to be brought to trial for the crime of aggression.

    Nothing, so far, suggests the statute of the tribunal will contain an exception to state immunity enjoyed by heads of state, heads of governments and foreign ministers while in power.

    That means these office holders can only be prosecuted if they are no longer in power or the Russian government expressly waives their immunity.

    It’s also unclear whether states will be willing to arrest those sought by the special tribunal.

    The ICC has long faced this challenge trying to get states to act on its arrest warrants.

    Hungary, for instance, did not arrest Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he visited in April, despite an ICC arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity in connection with the war in Gaza.

    For the special tribunal to be effective, according to Oleksandra Matviichuk, it:

    must not become a remote and hollow entity that does not engage with the Ukrainian victims.

    Overall, much remains unclear. Will this new special tribunal be able to hold the likes of Putin accountable for the crime of aggression? Or will it become another empty promise?

    Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective? – https://theconversation.com/a-new-special-tribunal-will-investigate-russias-aggression-against-ukraine-will-it-be-effective-257823

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI China: China and neighboring countries expand cross-border railways for greater cooperation

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    China and neighboring countries expand cross-border railways for greater cooperation

    BEIJING, June 19 — The railway linking Ganqmod Port in north China’s Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Mongolia’s Gashuun Sukhait started construction in mid-June, marking the second cross-border railway between the two countries since the first one opened nearly 70 years ago.

    As the global economy becomes increasingly integrated and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to advance, cross-border railway construction between China and its neighboring countries is ushering in new development opportunities.

    Recently, multiple cross-border railway projects, including the Ganqmod-Gashuun Sukhait Railway, have achieved significant milestones. China is steadily building a modern railway network that connects it with neighboring countries such as Mongolia, Russia, Vietnam and Laos, boosting regional links, economic cooperation and cultural exchanges.

    STRENGTHENING REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY

    Planned for completion in 2027, the Chinese section of the Ganqmod-Gashuun Sukhait railway project is invested and being constructed by China Energy Investment Corporation Co., Ltd. (CHN Energy).

    “The new railway is projected to transport approximately 30 million tonnes of cargo annually, significantly enhancing connectivity between the two countries and enabling more efficient transportation of mineral and energy resources,” said Wang Shangjun, chairman of the Ganqmod Railway Investment Co., Ltd. under CHN Energy.

    Beyond the China-Mongolia railway breakthrough, 2025 has witnessed accelerated progress on multiple rail corridors. The mainline construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project entered the substantive construction phase in late April.

    Earlier in the year, Vietnam ratified a project to extend rail connectivity from Vietnam’s Haiphong to the China-Vietnam border. Meanwhile, Thailand approved Phase II of the China-Thailand high-speed rail project, with the tendering process expected to be completed within the year.

    “These cross-border railways serve as vital corridors connecting China northward to Mongolia, westward to Central and West Asia, and southward to Southeast Asia,” said Fan Lijun, director of the BRI research institute at the Inner Mongolia Academy of Social Sciences.

    “Their construction will enhance infrastructure connectivity and economic exchanges among participating countries, while upgrading cross-border logistics, industrial parks, and border trade services. This holds profound significance for advancing regional cooperation and development,” Fan added.

    This vision has been vividly demonstrated across multiple cross-border railway projects. The China-Laos Railway, a model project under the BRI, has transported more than 52.7 million passengers since its launch over three years ago, including over 510,000 cross-border travelers, and carried over 59.4 million tonnes of cargo, with cross-border shipments exceeding 13.7 million tonnes.

    The railway authorities of China and Laos have been actively exploring new models for international transportation. By linking the China-Laos Railway with the China-Europe Railway Express network, they have reduced the rail transit time from Laos, Thailand and other Southeast Asian countries to Europe to just 15 days.

    This cross-border freight service now covers the 31 Chinese provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities, as well as 19 countries and regions including Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Singapore, with transported goods expanding to over 3,000 categories.

    CATALYST FOR SHARED PROSPERITY

    Yu Chen, a staff member with the Erenhot railway station, has witnessed the remarkable changes in his hometown Erenhot in Inner Mongolia, the Chinese terminus of the first cross-border railway between China and Mongolia.

    “It’s said that in its early years, Erenhot had just one main street, with only three major buildings in the whole area — the train station, the customs office, and the border inspection facility,” Yu said.

    Now, leveraging the cross-border railway, Erenhot has emerged as a pivotal hub city along the BRI, with over 200 logistics companies, a crisscross network of urban streets, and towering high-rises.

    The China-Mongolia railway has not only boosted Erenhot’s development but also driven industrial transformation and upgrading in the hinterland areas of the border port. In a national logistics hub park spanning Erenhot and Ulanqab, another border city in Inner Mongolia, export-oriented processing industries for specialty agricultural products including sunflower seeds, corn, fruits and vegetables, as well as import-processing industries for flaxseed, oats and meat products, are experiencing robust growth.

    “By transforming our geographical advantages into competitiveness in logistics, we have laid a solid foundation for the development of specialty agricultural product industries,” said Zhao Dongyang, director of the economic development bureau under the management committee of the logistics hub park.

    A growing number of cross-border railways are thriving as economic arteries, powering development in cities along their routes. A freight train carrying Russian rapeseed recently arrived at the border residents’ mutual trade zone of Manzhouli, a border city in Inner Mongolia profoundly shaped by the China-Russia railway.

    Upon the cargo’s arrival, Manzhouli Xinfeng Grain and Oil Industry Co., Ltd. immediately initiated the production process of rapeseed oil. “Russian rapeseed boasts unique advantages such as low acid value and high smoke point, which enable the extraction of premium-quality rapeseed oil that is highly favored in China’s edible oil market,” said Yang Zhihong, deputy general manager of the company.

    As China’s largest land port, Manzhouli is evolving from its traditional role as a “transit station” into a regional industrial hub by promoting local processing of grain, oil and timber.

    “By sourcing raw materials through the border residents’ mutual trade channel, we have achieved significant cost reductions — saving approximately 500 yuan (about 69.71 U.S. dollars) per tonne on average, with cumulative savings exceeding 8 million yuan to date,” Yang said.

    According to Xie Ruijie, deputy director of the management committee of the Manzhouli China-Russia mutual trade zone, border trade in Manzhouli had surpassed 100 million yuan as of April 20 this year, with more than 3,600 border residents participating, bringing in over 1 million yuan in income for locals and contributing nearly 2 million yuan in tax revenue to the city.

    DEEPENING PEOPLE-TO-PEOPLE TIES

    During the May Day holiday last year, despite the swirling snowflakes on the platform of Ulaanbaatar, capital of Mongolia, Kang Zhenning, chief conductor of the China-Mongolia international passenger train carefully assisted Mongolian passengers returning home after medical treatment in Inner Mongolia’s capital Hohhot.

    To better serve Mongolian passengers, Kang mastered the Mongolian language through studying books and online videos and learning from Mongolian colleagues. He also led his crew in establishing a Mongolian-Chinese bilingual service station onboard, which offers translation services for international travelers.

    “Thanks to the crew’s consistent and attentive service, this train has become like an ‘ambulance’ for patients like me,” said Mongolian passenger Urtu, who frequently takes this train to Hohhot for medical treatment.

    While the China-Mongolia Railway serves as a lifeline for cross-border medical care, many railway services in southern China have become a vibrant corridor for cultural tourism, bringing peoples from China and its neighboring countries closer.

    The waiting hall of Hekou North Railway Station, which is close to the China-Vietnam border, was bustling on an April afternoon. Vietnamese tour guide Hoang Tien waited there with a group of 11 Vietnamese tourists.

    “The high-speed trains here are very punctual,” Hoang told his group, “With the streamlined boarding process, you only need to arrive at the station just 40 minutes before departure.”

    As a frequent visitor to the railway station, Hoang leads tour groups here every few days. He marveled at how the China-Vietnam railway connects Yunnan’s picturesque landscapes, and had observed the growing number of Vietnamese tourists eager to explore China’s natural wonders and cultural heritage.

    In 2024, the number of Vietnamese tour groups arriving at and departing from Hekou Port increased by 40.7 percent from 2023. In the first three months of this year, more than 10,000 group tourists traveled from Hekou North Railway Station to other Chinese destinations, a surge of more than 180 percent over the same period last year.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: SIFF Project 2025 announces winners, expands support for filmmakers

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Winners of the SIFF Project honors were revealed on June 17 during the 27th Shanghai International Film Festival (SIFF), concluding the four-day event aimed at supporting young filmmakers in bringing their projects to fruition.

    Winners of the SIFF Project honors pose for a group photo on stage with the jury during the 27th Shanghai International Film Festival, June 17, 2025. [Photo courtesy of SIFF Organizing Committee]

    The Annual Focus Committee was chaired by director, screenwriter and producer Wen Muye, with producer-screenwriter Ying Luojia and director-screenwriter Anselm Chan serving as members. Over four days, the committee reviewed projects for creativity, artistic quality and market potential.

    During the presentations, committee members discussed projects with teams, offering feedback on story, visuals, themes and pacing. They highlighted each project’s strengths in stylistic vision and direction, and offered specific suggestions for improving character development and contemporary relevance where needed.

    After deliberation, the committee announced five main awards. The best genre project honor went to Cai Kunyu’s “Dog Bite Dog.” The annual focus honor was awarded to Yuan Yuan’s “Heading South.” The best talent project went to Guo Xiaodong’s “A Perfect Life.” “Wintertime in a Small Town” by Wu Chu received the most creative project award, and best work-in-progress project went to Emetraj Memet’s “Good Drink Pub.” The jury also gave a special honor to Dong Jie’s “Zoom In, Zoom Out” for outstanding achievement.

    SIFF Project was held in Shanghai from June 14 to 17, featuring public presentations of 19 selected projects and discussions with 34 shortlisted entries. The event drew strong industry participation, with many sessions fully booked in advance and additional meetings requested. In total, 175 production, investment and distribution companies took part, resulting in 636 project meetings.

    This year’s SIFF Project received 534 valid submissions, a 39% increase from last year. The event introduced a new genre project section to encourage innovation within established formats, attracting entries in comedy, adventure, road movies and other genres.

    After the selection process, 34 entries were shortlisted, highlighting a broad thematic range that includes explorations of history and traditional culture, the integration of technology and modern life, intimate personal stories and examinations of broader societal issues.

    Among the notable projects beyond this year’s award winners are “General’s Order,” a historical costume drama; “He Who Longs to Travel the World,” which delves into digitally constructed realities; and “Huadan Rapper Go Go Go,” a work that blends Chinese opera with rap. Several projects draw on personal stories, such as “Test of Confucius,” inspired by art exam experiences, “The Daughter from Shanghai,” which traces a family’s history, and “The Last Firework,” set in early 2000s Beijing.

    Since its launch in 2007, SIFF Project has seen 112 projects move into production. Of these, 77 have screened at international film festivals, 56 have competed in or been showcased at competitive feature festivals, and 74 have secured theatrical releases worldwide.

    This year, SIFF Project partnered with eight organizations to provide a total of 1.75 million yuan ($243,000) in cash and services for selected projects. Mahua FunAge and Damai Entertainment each awarded 150,000 yuan to a project in early development, with “Dog Bite Dog” receiving the Mahua FunAge award and “Find Your Way” winning the Damai Entertainment award.

    Phenom Films, Mofei Pictures and Image Forest awarded post-production services to “The Daughter from Shanghai,” “Good Drink Pub” and “Test of Confucius,” respectively. InBetween granted design services to “He Who Longs to Travel the World” and “Good Drink Pub,” while Aputure will provide lighting equipment to “Snow Falling on Cedars.” China Film Co., Ltd. awarded venue and location services to “Back to Basics.”

    Chen Guo, managing director of Shanghai International Film and TV Events, emphasized SIFF’s ongoing commitment to Asia, Chinese cinema and emerging talent. After three decades of development, the festival has established a progressive talent cultivation system that supports filmmakers at all stages of their careers through a range of awards and initiatives.

    “As a crucial part of this system, SIFF Project continues to connect all stages of the creative process, supporting young filmmakers’ growth and fostering a healthy ecosystem from project incubation to industry integration,” she said.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: Global FDI fell by 11% amid uncertainty: UNCTAD

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Global foreign direct investment (FDI) fell by 11 percent to 1.5 trillion U.S. dollars in 2024, marking the second consecutive year of decline, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) said on Thursday.

    Geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and intensifying industrial policy competition, combined with elevated financial risk and uncertainty, are reshaping global investment, the UNCTAD said in its World Investment Report 2025.

    The decline was driven largely by a 22 percent drop in FDI to developed economies, including a 58 percent plunge in Europe, the report said.

    In developing countries, capital inflows appeared broadly stable with regional divergence. However, in many economies, capital is “stagnating or bypassing” key sectors like infrastructure, energy, technology, and job-creating industries, it highlighted.

    “Too many economies are being left behind not for lack of potential — but because the system still sends capital where it’s easiest, not where it’s needed,” said UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan.

    Digital economy investment is the only growth sector, which saw a 14 percent rise in FDI led by Information and Communication technology (ICT) manufacturing, digital services, and semiconductors, the report said.

    The report noted steep investment drops in sectors critical to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), including renewable energy, transport, and water and sanitation, all with declines by over 30 percent.

    Current levels of investment fall far short of global needs, it warned. Closing the SDG financing gap would require an estimated 4 trillion U.S. dollars per year in developing countries, it added.

    The report also noted that the escalation of global trade tensions driven by the U.S. “reciprocal tariff” measures, as well as evolving trade negotiations and heightened economic policy uncertainty, have significantly impacted international investment.

    Firms are recalibrating cross-border investment strategies, seeking to navigate a more complex and uncertain operating environment, it said.

    The report urged increased, long-term and inclusive capital that is aligned with sustainable development, especially in the digital economy sector, to help close the global divide.

    The UNCTAD put forward seven priority areas covering data and AI governance, digital investment policy and rules, digital infrastructure, among others, to help developing economies secure transformative FDI in digital industries. 

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: China-Türkiye businesses eye closer cooperation in beauty sector

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Around 60 Turkish firms and 20 Chinese companies gathered on Thursday in Istanbul for a business matchmaking event aimed at boosting bilateral cooperation in the beauty industry.

    The event, organized by China’s Ministry of Commerce, focused on facilitating discussions between buyers and suppliers across diverse categories such as beauty, skincare, haircare, and packaging.

    Min Yan, a representative of Guangzhou Qiaojiang Packaging Co., Ltd., said that through the event, she discovered strong potential for Chinese products in the regional market and expressed her intention to return to Türkiye in the future to further explore the market.

    Trade in beauty and hair care products between China and Türkiye has seen strong growth in recent years.

    According to China’s Ministry of Commerce, bilateral trade in hairdressing appliances neared 58.96 million U.S. dollars in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 34.8 percent. Trade in cosmetics, beauty products, and personal care items totaled 46.78 million dollars, up 17.6 percent from the previous year. 

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: Tech innovation key as foreign investors bet on China

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    China’s surging technology innovation is rewriting the playbook for foreign investors, with the country’s booming tech sector having reshaped expectations regarding its long-term growth potential.

    The latest example came as Goldman Sachs unveiled a list of what it has identified as China’s Prominent 10, a move reminiscent of the Magnificent Seven, a group of high-performing and influential stocks in the U.S. tech sector.

    The top 10 Chinese stocks, most of which are affiliated with tech giants, are expected to significantly expand their share of China’s equity market over the coming two years.

    Among these 10 are internet behemoth Tencent, e-commerce giant Alibaba, smartphone maker Xiaomi, electric car manufacturer BYD, digital shopping platform Meituan and pharmaceutical company Hengrui.

    They “embody the theme of AI/Tech development, self-sufficiency, going global, services and new forms of consumption, and China’s improving shareholder returns,” according the investment bank’s research findings.

    Behind the stock picks spreadsheets of Wall Street economists lies a deeper recalibration, with those observers who once declared “peak China” now overhauling their models, and transitioning to a view which sees tech innovation as driving a new wave of substantial expansion in China.

    Last month, MSCI added five A-share stocks, including VeriSilicon, Baili-Pharm and APT Medical, to its China Index. These new constituents are mostly in tech and biotech sectors, reflecting global index compilers’ recognition of China’s economic transformation.

    Top global investors, including Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, have turned bullish on China’s market — driven by global investor interest in Chinese equities due to the country’s AI push, led by DeepSeek. This month, notably, major investment banks have raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy.

    As of May 29, the Hang Seng Tech Index had surged over 40 percent year on year, outperforming major global tech indices. Of the top ten most actively traded Hong Kong stocks, seven are Hang Seng Tech constituents, with the three most active being Tencent, Alibaba and Xiaomi.

    China’s AI breakthroughs highlight its supply chain and innovation strengths, supported by a robust ecosystem of infrastructure, data, talent and energy, said Xing Ziqiang, Morgan Stanley’s chief economist for China.

    “China’s tech innovations are shifting from isolated breakthroughs to systematic integration, with many fields experiencing their ‘DeepSeek moment’ and some emerging tech firms achieving a global presence from the start,” said Wu Qing, head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, at a forum in east China’s Shanghai on Wednesday.

    Additionally, tech stars like DeepSeek and Huawei weren’t included in Goldman Sachs’ stock picks only because they’re not publicly traded. Beyond these giants, many Chinese startups are rising to prominence. China now has more than 400 unicorn companies, nearly one-third of the global total.

    The country’s recent economic data also support such an outlook.

    Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that China’s high-tech manufacturing added value grew by 8.6 percent in May, outpacing the overall growth of large-scale industrial added value by 2.8 percentage points.

    Within this sector, production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots and new energy vehicles increased by 40.0, 35.5 and 31.7 percent, respectively.

    China is not only the largest market but arguably also the world’s innovation hub, propelling cost efficiencies and next-gen robotics development, said a Morgan Stanley research note recently.

    “It is becoming apparent that national support for ’embodied AI’ may be far greater in China than in any other nation, driving continued innovation and capital formation,” said Zhong Sheng, Morgan Stanley’s head of industrials research.

    “The continuing AI and technology breakthroughs have rewritten the narrative and brightened the growth prospects” for China’s privately-owned enterprises, who also lead the charge of “China’s ‘Going Global’ ambition,” according to the Goldman Sachs report.

    This year, overseas demand for China’s AI-driven tech products has surged. Data from AliExpress reveals that during its March promotion, sales of AR/VR glasses, led by brands like XREAL and Rokid, had jumped 600 percent from the previous month.

    “Last year, our AR glasses’ overseas business accounted for nearly 70 percent of total sales, with overseas sales growing by 30 percent year on year,” said Zhang Longjie, global sales head of consumer-grade AR glasses firm XREAL.

    Despite global uncertainties, China’s high-tech product exports performed strongly in the first five months of 2025 — rising 6.1 percent year on year in U.S.-dollar terms, according to the General Administration of Customs data.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-Evening Report: West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Diane Dowdell, PhD Candidate in Sustainable Mining, The University of Queensland

    CUHRIG/Getty

    This week, Environment Minister Murray Watt met with groups representing business, the environment, renewable energy and First Nations communities in a bid to restart Labor’s stalled environmental reforms. There was one group in the room Watt presumably had to woo hardest: Western Australia’s miners.

    Last year, the WA mining lobby mounted an ultimately successful campaign opposing proposed changes to national environment laws, and the plan to set up an environmental protection authority. State premier Roger Cook also lobbied Prime Minister Anthony Albanese directly.

    Watt has pledged to revive the reform process and on Thursday claimed a compromise could be reached. The existing laws, he said, are “not working for the environment, and they are not working for business”.

    Whether his efforts will be enough to overcome the scepticism of the mining industry remains to be seen. These companies have influence – and they will use it if they see new laws as a threat.

    The mining state

    The mining industry dominates WA economically, politically and socially. WA’s mining sector is substantially larger than the mining interests in any other Australian state. Underground lie huge reserves of iron ore, gas, gold, lithium and many other resources.

    The sector funnelled A$267 billion into the Australian economy in 2023–24 through salaries, royalties and taxes. About $60 billion directly flowed to Western Australians in wages and salaries.

    The leaders of WA mining companies see themselves, by and large, as doing economically vital work.

    I have interviewed many WA mining executives for my doctorate, which is currently underway. One clear common narrative emerged: they saw mining as a national good. They believed their companies brought wealth and prosperity to communities, built infrastructure, and funnelled money into state and federal treasuries.

    The justification is powerful. It underpins the way those in the industry see their work – and how they respond to any threat, perceived or otherwise.

    It also dates back over a century. The link between WA resources and prosperity originates from the 1890s WA gold rush, which transformed the fortunes of the state. This self image has been nurtured through successive resource booms, from gold to iron ore to natural gas and more gold.

    Many company executives see any duplication of environmental approvals as time-consuming, unproductive and economically damaging. A 2023 WA Chamber of Commerce and Industry report suggested “green tape” (approval delays) was threatening 40% of mining proposals in the pipeline.

    Miners and their political backers often frame the industry as environmentally positive, particularly for resources vital to the green energy transition such as lithium, rare earth elements and – more controversially – gas.

    Federal Resources Minister Madeleine King – who is West Australian – regularly draws this link. As she said in 2023:

    let me be clear, the global clean energy transition will need more mining, not less […] the road to net zero runs through the Australian resources sector.

    Mining is vital to Western Australia.
    Inc/Shutterstock

    Wielding influence

    WA miners are represented by well-organised and well-resourced lobbying bodies such as the Chamber of Minerals and Energy WA, the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies, and the Minerals Council of Australia.

    These groups maintain relationships with politicians at both state and federal levels, regardless of which party is in power.

    Broadly, their goals are to promote the continued expansion of resource projects (minerals, oil and gas) under conditions most advantageous to industry interests.

    Mining companies use these industry lobby groups to support or critique government policy and push for changes. They exert influence through targeted lobbying, close relationships with elected officials and political candidates, and direct engagement with federal processes.

    What happens when the sector sees a potential threat from policymakers in Canberra? Often, the mining companies unify against it.

    For example, WA miners were prominent in the 2010 campaign against efforts by the Rudd government to introduce a super profits tax on mining.

    Why WA miners oppose nature law reform

    A tax is one thing. But what did the WA miners see as the key problems in the environmental reforms?

    One issue was a perceived contradiction between the federal government’s intention to streamline developmental approvals and introduce a federal Environmental Protection Agency, while failing to deal with existing duplication between state and federal processes.

    The Association of Mining and Exploration Companies lobby group gave another reason in a submission to government: the proposed independence of the EPA would remove the discretionary power of the minister.

    Rather than an independent federal EPA, they pushed for a model similar to the WA version – the advice of which the minister can overrule. The group also warned the laws would impede the global competitiveness of the mining industry and hinder investment.

    The state government echoed these statements, calling the reforms an overreach that would stifle economic development.

    This alignment of government and industry messaging shows how closely their interests are intertwined.

    Premier Roger Cook leaves no ambiguity about this. Ahead of this year’s WA and federal elections, Cook warned the “latte sippers” over east:

    do not for a moment think that we will stand by idly and allow you to damage our economy because, ultimately, it will damage your standard of living.

    Is a deal possible?

    Across Australia, there is broad support for environmental law reform, because the current national laws are seen as not fit for purpose.

    Murray Watt came to the role of environment minister with a reputation as a fixer. The question now is, what will he trade to get the miners on side?

    The industry will be cautious and will insist on much more detail about any changes. It’s possible a deal could be struck. But we can expect to continue to see very strong pushback if Watt tries to expand federal powers into what is seen as state responsibilities.

    The industry will also expect greater federal resourcing for delivery of timely approvals. Nationally important industries don’t like to wait.

    Diane Dowdell is a PhD Candidate in the Centre for Social Responsibility in Mining (CSRM) within the Sustainable Minerals Institute at the University of Queensland. She was the recipient of an industry scholarship from Newcrest Mining for her PhD research. She works for SLR Consulting Pty Ltd. Diane is a fellow of the Australasian Institute of Mining and Metallurgy (AusIMM) and the Environment Institute of Australia and New Zealand (EIANZ).

    ref. West Australian miners flexed their muscle to block a federal EPA last year. Will it be different this time? – https://theconversation.com/west-australian-miners-flexed-their-muscle-to-block-a-federal-epa-last-year-will-it-be-different-this-time-257892

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Simon Birmingham appointed as ABA CEO

    Source: Premier of Victoria

    Former Federal Finance Minister and Senate Leader, The Hon. Simon Birmingham, will join the Australian Banking Association as Chief Executive Officer.

    ABA Chair and National Australia Bank CEO Andrew Irvine today announced Mr Birmingham’s appointment, replacing retiring CEO, The Hon. Anna Bligh AC.

    “We are delighted to have Simon lead our industry and help ensure Australian banks continue making the right decisions for customers and the broader economy,” Mr Irvine said.

    “He is a recognised leader who has had deep involvement in significant and long-lasting policy decisions and actions throughout his career that have helped to shape our country.

    “Simon’s ability to navigate difficult and complex environments, bringing together varied interests and perspectives, makes him ideal for this role. He will be a sensible, consistent and respected voice on behalf of the industry.”

    Mr Birmingham served in the Australian Parliament as a Liberal Senator for South Australia from 2007 to 2025. His roles included Minister for Finance, Leader of the Government in the Senate, Minister for Trade, Tourism and Investment, Minister for Education and Training and Manager of Government Business in the Senate. He was Shadow Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2022 until his retirement from the Senate.

    Prior to politics, he worked with the Winemakers’ Federation of Australia and the Australian Hotels Association. He is currently ANZ’s Head of Asia Pacific Engagement and Chairman, South Australia. He holds a Master of Business Administration from the University of Adelaide.

    “I thank the ABA board for their vote of confidence in my ability to lead this industry. As the ABA CEO I will always put trust in Australia’s banking system first, pursue a competitive regulatory environment, and work to ensure innovation in banking strengthens Australia’s financial interests. I also want to acknowledge ANZ for their support and encouragement through this process,” Mr Birmingham said.

    “Banks are central to our economy, essential to businesses of all sizes and entrusted by Australians with their personal financial wellbeing. From trade and capital flows from large and international banks, to the choice offered by smaller banks, regional banks and customer-owned organisations, a strong, healthy, customer-focused financial services sector is vital for all Australians.”

    Mr Birmingham will start on 18 August. Ms Bligh, who announced in February that she would retire after eight years as ABA CEO, will finish on 22 August.

    “Anna has had a remarkable and lasting impact on this industry and how we look after our customers,” Mr Irvine said. We are enormously grateful for her time advocating for customers, particularly the disadvantaged, across financial services.”

    For more information, visit the ABA’s website here.

    Contact:  Mark Alexander, National Australia Bank (as ABA Chair bank), 0412 171 447

    Topics

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    Media Enquiries

    For all media enquiries, please contact the NAB Media Line on 03 7035 5015

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-Evening Report: Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University

    MAYA LAB/Shutterstock

    Technologies to enforce the Australian government’s social media ban for under 16s are “private, robust and effective”. That’s according to the preliminary findings of a federal government-commissioned trial that has nearly finished testing them.

    The findings, released today, may give the government greater confidence to forge ahead with the ban, despite a suite of expert criticism. They might also alleviate some of the concerns of the Australian population about privacy and security implications of the ban, which is due to begin in December.

    For example, a report based on a survey of nearly 4,000 people and released by the government earlier this week found nine out of ten people support the idea of a ban. But it also found a large number of people were “very concerned” about how the ban would be implemented. Nearly 80% of respondents had privacy and security concerns, while roughly half had concerns about age assurance accuracy and government oversight.

    The trial’s preliminary findings paint a rosy picture of the potential for available technologies to check people’s ages. However, they contain very little detail about specific technologies, and appear to be at odds with what we know about age-assurance technology from other sources.

    From facial recognition to hand movement recognition

    The social media ban for under 16s was legislated in December 2024. A last-minute amendment to the law requires technology companies to provide “alternative age assurance methods” for account holders to confirm their age, rather than relying only on government-issued ID.

    The Australian government commissioned an independent trial to evaluate the “effectiveness, maturity, and readiness for use” of these alternative methods.

    The trial is being led by the Age Check Certification Scheme – a company based in the United Kingdom that specialises in testing and certifying identity verification systems. It includes 53 vendors that offer a range of age assurance technologies to guess people’s ages, using techniques such as facial recognition and hand-movement recognition.

    According to the preliminary findings of the trial, “age assurance can be done in Australia”.

    The trial’s project director, Tony Allen, said “there are no significant technological barriers” to assuring people’s ages online. He added the solutions are “technically feasible, can be integrated flexibly into existing services and can support the safety and rights of children online”.

    However, these claims are hard to square with other evidence.

    High error rates

    Yesterday the ABC reported the trial found face-scanning technologies “repeatedly misidentified” children as young as 15 as being in their 20s and 30s. These tools could only guess children’s ages “within an 18-month range in 85 percent of cases”. This means a 14-year-old child might gain access to a social media account, while a 17-year-old might be blocked.

    This is in line with results of global trials of face-scanning technologies conducted for more than a decade.

    An ongoing series of studies of age estimation technology by the United States’ National Institute of Standards and Technology shows the algorithms “fail significantly when attempting to differentiate minors” of various ages.

    The tests also show that error rates are higher for young women compared to young men. Error rates are also higher for people with darker skin tones.

    These studies show that even the best age-estimation software currently available – Yoti – has an average error of 1.0 years. Other software options mistake someone’s age by 3.1 years on average.

    This means, at best, a 16-year-old might be estimated to be 15 or 17 years old; at worst, they could be seen to be 13 or 19 years of age. These error rates mean a significant number of children under 16 could access social media accounts despite a ban being in place, while some over 16 could be blocked.

    Yoti also explains businesses needing to check exact ages (such as 18) can set higher age thresholds (such as 25), so fewer people under 18 get through the age check.

    This approach would be similar to that taken in Australia’s retail liquor sector, where sales staff verify ID for anyone who appears to be under the age of 25. However, many young people lack the government-issued ID required for an additional age check.

    It’s also worth remembering that in August 2023, the Australian government acknowledged that the age assurance technology market was “immature” and could not yet meet key requirements, such as working reliably without circumvention and balancing privacy and security.

    Outstanding questions

    We don’t yet know exactly what methods platforms will use to verify account holders’ ages. While face-scanning technologies are often discussed, they could use other methods to confirm age. The government trial also tested voice and hand movements to guess young people’s ages. But those methods also have accuracy issues.

    And it’s not yet clear what recourse people will have if their age is misidentified. Will parents be able to complain if children under 16 gain access to accounts, despite restrictions? Will older Australians who are incorrectly blocked be able to appeal? And if so, to whom?

    There are other outstanding questions. What’s stopping someone who’s under 16 from getting someone who is over 16 to set up an account on their behalf? To mitigate this risk, the government might require all social media users to verify their age at regular intervals.

    It’s also unclear what level of age estimation error the government may be willing to accept in implementing a social media ban. The legislation says technology companies must demonstrate they have taken “reasonable steps” to prevent under 16s from holding social media accounts. What is considered “reasonable” is yet to be clearly defined.

    Australians will have to wait until later this year for the full results of the government’s trial to be released, and to know how technology companies will respond. With less than six months until the ban comes into effect, social media users still don’t have all the answers they need.

    Lisa M. Given receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and the international Association for Information Science and Technology.

    ref. Technology to enforce teen social media ban is ‘effective’, trial says. But this is at odds with other evidence – https://theconversation.com/technology-to-enforce-teen-social-media-ban-is-effective-trial-says-but-this-is-at-odds-with-other-evidence-259373

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why Israel — and potentially the U.S. — is sure to encounter the limits of air power in Iran

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By James Horncastle, Assistant Professor and Edward and Emily McWhinney Professor in International Relations, Simon Fraser University

    As the war between Israel and Iran escalates, Israel is increasing its calls on the United States to become involved in the conflict.

    Former Israeli officials are appearing on U.S. news outlets, exhorting the American public to support Israel’s actions.

    President Donald Trump has signalled a willingness for the U.S. to become involved in the conflict. He’s gone so far, in fact, to suggest in social media posts that he could kill Iran’s supreme leader if he wanted to.

    Segment on Trump’s threats against Iran’s leader. (BBC News)

    The American military could certainly make an impact in any air campaign against Iran. The problem from a military standpoint, however, is that the U.S., based on its forces’ deployment, will almost certainly seek to keep its involvement limited to its air force to avoid another Iraq-like quagmire.

    While doing so could almost certainly disrupt Iran’s nuclear program, it will likely fall short of Israel’s goal of regime change.

    In fact, it could reinforce the Iranian government and draw the U.S. into a costly ground war.




    Read more:
    Why is there so much concern over Iran’s nuclear program? And where could it go from here?


    Israel’s need for American support

    The initial stated reason for Israel’s bombing campaign — Iran’s nuclear capabilities — appears specious at best.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has argued several times in the past, without evidence, that Iran is close to achieving a nuclear weapon. U.S. intelligence, however, have assessed that Iran is three years away from deploying a nuclear weapon.

    Regardless of the veracity of the claims, Israel initiated the offensive and now requires American support.

    Israel’s need for U.S. assistance rests on two circumstances:

    1. While Israel succeeded in eliminating key figures from the Iranian military in its initial strikes, Iran’s response appears to have exceeded Israel’s expectations with their Arrow missile interceptors nearing depletion.

    2. Israel’s air strikes can only achieve so much in disrupting Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Most analysts note that Israel’s bombings are only likely to delay the Iranian nuclear program by a few months. This is due to the fact that Israeli missiles are incapable of penetrating the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which estimates place close to 300 feet underground.

    The United States, however, possesses munitions that could damage, or even destroy, the Fordow facility. Most notably, the GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (more commonly known as a bunker buster) has a penetration capability of 200 feet.

    Multiple strikes by said munition would render Fordow inoperable, if not outright destroyed.

    Romanticizing air power

    The efficacy of air power has been vastly overrated in the popular media and various air forces of the world. Air power is great at disrupting an opponent, but has significant limitations in influencing the outcome of a war.

    Specifically, air power is likely to prove an inadequate tool for one of the supposed Israeli and American objectives in the war: regime change. For air power to be effective at bringing about regime change, it needs to demoralize the Iranian people to the point that they’re willing to oppose their own government.

    Early air enthusiasts believed that a population’s demoralization would be an inevitable consequence of aerial bombardment. Italian general Giulio Douhet, a prominent air power theorist, argued that air power was so mighty that it could destroy cities and demoralize an opponent into surrendering.

    Douhet was correct on the first point. He was wrong on the second.

    Recent history provides evidence. While considerable ink has been spilled to demonstrate the efficacy of air power during the Second World War, close examination of the facts demonstrate that it had a minimal impact. In fact, Allied bombing of German cities in several instances created the opposite effect.

    More recent bombing campaigns replicated this failure. The U.S. bombing of North Vietnam during the Vietnam War did not significantly damage North Vietnamese morale or war effort. NATO’s bombing of Serbia in 1999, likewise, rallied support for the unpopular Slobodan Milosevic due to its perceived injustice — and continues to evoke strong emotions to this day.

    Iran’s political regime may be unpopular with many Iranians, but Israeli and potentially American bombing may shore up support for the Iranian government.

    Nationalism is a potent force, particularly when people are under attack. Israel’s bombing of Iran will rally segments of the population to the government that would otherwise oppose it.

    Few positive options

    The limitations of air power to fuel significant political change in Iran should give Trump pause about intervening in the conflict.

    Some American support, such as providing weapons, is a given due to the close relationship between the U.S. and Israel. But any realization of American and Israeli aspirations of a non-nuclear Iran and a new government will likely require ground forces.

    Recent American experiences in Afghanistan and Iraq show such a ground forces operation won’t lead to the swift victory that Trump desires, but could potentially stretch on for decades.

    James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Why Israel — and potentially the U.S. — is sure to encounter the limits of air power in Iran – https://theconversation.com/why-israel-and-potentially-the-u-s-is-sure-to-encounter-the-limits-of-air-power-in-iran-259348

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI China: Coventry outlines Olympic vision ahead of IOC presidency

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Kirsty Coventry, poised to become the first woman and the first African to lead the International Olympic Committee, has laid out her vision for the future of the Olympic Movement, grounded in its core values and potential for global unity.

    Coventry, elected in March during the 144th IOC Session in Greece, will assume the presidency on June 23, succeeding Thomas Bach, who has led the organization since 2013. She received 49 of 97 votes in the first round, prevailing over six other candidates.

    Newly-elected president of International Olympic Committee (IOC) Kirsty Coventry attends the press conference in Costa Navarino, Greece, March 20, 2025. (Xinhua/Cao Can)

    “Values are what have led this movement for over a hundred years. It’s what’s kept this movement intertwined together. And that is something that we can never compromise,” the 41-year-old Zimbabwean told the Olympic Channel at the Olympic House in Lausanne on Thursday.

    “We have to be proud that we’re a movement that not just lives by its values, but shares its values, and promotes its values,” Coventry said.

    “And if we can find more ways to do that in the future, and can reach all households around the world, that’s part of my goal. How do we have more reach to communities across our massive globe? How do we reach those children to share our values with them? How do we reach them to inspire them?”

    Despite the weight of expectations that accompany the role, Coventry expressed enthusiasm about the opportunity to lead.

    “I don’t really look at the presidency as a weight,” she said. “Are there a lot of expectations? Yes. Does that come with a lot of responsibility? Yes. But I’m really so honored to have been given this opportunity, and I’m so excited for what the future holds. It’s a movement that has been a part of my life for so long, so it almost feels like a very natural progression.”

    Coventry’s deep ties to the Olympics began with her storied swimming career. She competed in five consecutive Games beginning in Sydney 2000, winning seven medals – including two golds – and becoming Africa’s most decorated Olympian. Her return to Zimbabwe after her Olympic success, during a time of national difficulty, further cemented her belief in sport’s transformative power.

    In addition to her achievements in the pool, Coventry has played a key role in sports governance. She joined the IOC as an athlete member in 2013, chaired the Athletes’ Commission, served on the Executive Board, and led initiatives promoting safe sports environments for children through the Kirsty Coventry Academy and the HEROES programme in Zimbabwe.

    She also served as Zimbabwe’s Minister of Youth, Sport, Arts and Recreation from 2018, during which she pushed legislation aimed at curbing match-fixing, abuse, and sexual harassment in sport.

    Balancing her new role with her home life as the mother of two young daughters has been a challenge, she admitted.

    “It has been crazy. And it’s been hard, but it’s also been wonderful,” Coventry said.

    “I have a lot more patience,” she added. “I now realize I can do a lot more with a lot less sleep. [The children] humble you. And when you get home after a rough day, you can look at them and you can realize, ‘Okay, this is why we’re doing this.’ But we’re also doing this so that the Olympic Games and our values remain relevant in this crazy world of ours. They’re the meaning.”

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Global survey finds 8 out of 10 people support taxing oil and gas corporations to pay for climate damages

    Source: Oxfam Aotearoa

    A majority of people believe governments must tax oil, gas and coal corporations for climate-related loss and damage, and that their government is not doing enough to counter the influence on politics of the super-rich and polluting industries. These are the key findings of a global survey, which reflects broad consensus across political affiliations, income levels and age groups. Today’s study, which was jointly commissioned by Greenpeace International and Oxfam International, was launched at the Bonn UN climate meetings (SB62 16-26 June), where governments are discussing key climate policy priorities, including ways to mobilize at least US $1.3 trillion annually in climate finance for Global South countries by 2035. The poll was conducted across 13 countries, including most G7 countries. The study, run by Dynata, comes with additional research by Oxfam showing that a polluter profits tax on 590 oil, gas and coal companies could raise up to US $400 billion in its first year. This is equivalent to the estimated annual costs of climate damage in the Global South. Loss and damage costs from climate change to the Global South are estimated to reach between $290bn to $580bn annually by 2030.
    Key findings of the survey include:
    • 81% of people surveyed support new taxes on the oil, coal and gas industry to pay for damages caused by fossil-fuel driven climate disasters like storms, floods, droughts and wildfires.
    • 86% of people in surveyed countries support channelling revenues from higher taxes on oil and gas corporations towards communities who are most impacted by the climate crisis. Climate change is disproportionately hitting people in Global South countries, who are historically least responsible for greenhouse gas emissions.
    • When asked who should be taxed to pay for helping survivors of fossil-fuel driven climate disasters, 66% of people across countries surveyed think it should be oil and gas companies compared to than 5% who support taxes on working people, 9% on goods people buy, and 20% in favour of business taxes.
    • 68% felt that the fossil fuel industry and the super-rich had a negative influence on politics in their country. 77% say they would be more willing to support a political candidate who prioritises taxing the super-rich and the fossil fuel industry. 
    Oxfam’s research finds that 585 of the world’s largest and most polluting fossil fuel companies made $583 billion in profits in 2024, a 68% increase since 2019. The annual emissions of 340 of these corporations (for whom data was available) accounted for over half of global greenhouse gas emissions caused by humans. Their emissions in just one year are enough to cause 2.7 million heat-related deaths over the next century. A polluter profits tax on these companies would ensure that renewable energy is more profitable than fossil fuels, encouraging companies to invest in renewables, as well as avoid more deaths driven by fossil fuelled climate change. This new tax must be accompanied by higher taxes on the super-rich and other polluting companies. Governments should impose such taxes nationally and engage positively at the UN to ensure a fair global tax agreement.
    Nick Henry, Climate Justice Lead for Oxfam Aotearoa, said: “This new poll shows that people support Oxfam’s call for our leaders to make polluting corporations pay for the damage they cause to our climate.”
    “People understand that storms, floods, drought, wildfires, and other extreme weather events are being fuelled by oil and gas corporations. Instead of leaving communities exposed to deal with these devastating costs alone, governments can unlock huge sums of money to invest in climate solutions through making dirty energy companies pay,” said Rebecca Newsom, Global Political Lead for Greenpeace’s Stop Drilling, Start Paying campaign. “The Polluters Pay Pact unites communities on the frontlines of climate disasters, concerned citizens, first responders like firefighters and humanitarian groups around the world to call on politicians to act now through making polluters, not people, pay for climate damages.”  
    Amitabh Behar, Executive Director of Oxfam International, said: “Mega-rich coal, oil and gas companies have known for decades about the damage their polluting products wreak on humanity. Corporations continue to cash in on climate devastation, and their profiteering destroys the lives and livelihoods of millions of women, men and children, predominantly those in the Global South who have done the least to cause the climate crisis. Governments must listen to their people and hold rich polluters responsible for their damages. A new tax on polluting industries could provide immediate and significant support to climate-vulnerable countries and finally incentivise investment in renewables and a just transition.”
    Nick Henry continued: “Rather than subsidising new oil and gas drilling, and fast-tracking coal mines, our Government should be holding fossil fuel companies responsible for the costs facing our communities to adapt to climate change.”
    NOTES:
    • The research was conducted by market research company Dynata in May-June, 2025, in Brazil, Canada, France, Germany, Kenya, Italy, India, Mexico, the Philippines, South Africa, Spain, the UK and the US. Together, these countries represent close to half the world’s population. Results available here.
    • Oxfam’s polluter profits tax model is explained in this blog and methodology note attached. The methodology note also explains the basis for the emissions of fossil fuel companies and their impacts on heat-related deaths. These deaths were calculated on the basis of emissions in 2023. 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-Evening Report: 6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Miller, Lecturer in Education (Classroom Management), Southern Cross University

    Wander Women/ Getty Images

    Bullying is arguably one of the most serious issues facing Australia’s schools.

    About one in four students between Year 4 and Year 9 report being bullied regularly. This can have serious and lasting consequences. Research suggests students who are bullied are at an increased risk of mental health problems and self-harm.

    On Friday, submissions close for the federal government’s rapid review into school bullying. Here, we suggest six key areas on which governments, schools and education authorities need to focus to re-imagine Australia’s approach to tackling bullying.




    Read more:
    With a government review underway, we have to ask why children bully other kids


    1. A national approach to bullying

    At the moment, there is no clear, consistent definition of bullying in Australian schools. Nor are there consistent policies.

    This naturally leads to confusion about current best practice to both prevent bullying and support students who have been bullied.

    For example, there are several definitions of cyberbullying between the different states and territories.

    2. Consistent data to track bullying

    Australia also has no nationally consistent approach to track or measure bullying and cyberbullying.

    This means it is impossible to say whether bullying is getting worse or better – or if certain parts of the country are more successfully addressing it.

    So we need metrics to better track, analyse, report and respond to bullying incidents across schools, regions, states and territories.

    For years, researchers have noted schools themselves also need accurate data to analyse, monitor and evaluate the degree to which an intervention is effective.

    3. A whole-school approach

    A national strategy should also prioritise whole-school approaches to bullying prevention – this is what research shows to be most effective.

    A whole-school approach sees anti-bullying efforts as the responsibility of everyone connected to a school. School leaders, teachers, support staff, students, families and the wider community are all expected to promote safety and inclusion.

    Addressing bullying should see strategies implemented across multiple locations, including the classroom, wider school and home environments.

    This goes beyond simply dealing with individual bullying incidents as they arise.

    Research also suggests schools should focus on proactive, non-punitive strategies and a positive school culture. This includes clear procedures to report bullying, effective education programs, and establishing consistent classroom and school rules.

    If bullying occurs, schools can respond with a restorative approach, which focuses on repairing harm done to relationships.

    Studies suggest whole-school approaches such as these can reduce bullying behaviours by 20-23% and victimisation by 17-20%.

    4. Teach social and emotional skills

    As part of the whole-school approach, we also need to make sure schools are teaching social and emotional skills. This includes how to identify and manage emotions as well as communicating and cooperating with others.

    While it is part of the Australian Curriculum, research shows social and emotional skills are not always taught using evidence-based, formal approaches.

    A large body of research demonstrates that schools which teach social and emotional learning across all aspects of school engagement, report higher academic achievement, lower rates of bullying, improved student wellbeing, and stronger connections between students and adults.

    In part, this is because these approaches empower students to take ownership of their behaviour.




    Read more:
    Schools today also teach social and emotional skills. Why is this important? And what’s involved?


    5. Training for teachers

    Teachers play a pivotal role in making sure all students feel safe and supported at school, helping children and young people to understand and manage their emotions.

    A 2014 study found teachers who had participated in anti-bullying training were able to provide this support more effectively.

    Teachers specifically need training that helps them provide safe, inclusive spaces for students from marginalised groups, including students with disability and young people who face homophobic or transphobic bullying.

    School staff should receive consistent, culturally responsive training, so they are equipped with the most current and effective ways to support all students.

    6. Give students an active role

    We should also look at ways to give students a greater role in shaping anti-bullying policies.

    Research shows when students are included in decisions that affect them, it increases their engagement with learning and motivation at school.

    Along with helping to make policies, students can also be involved in peer-mentoring programs and leading campaigns to raise awareness about respectful relationships. This can create a sense of shared ownership for anti-bullying interventions.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. 6 things Australia must do if it’s serious about tackling school bullying – https://theconversation.com/6-things-australia-must-do-if-its-serious-about-tackling-school-bullying-258924

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria, Lecturer in Criminal Law and International Law, Curtin University

    Earlier this year, the European Union, the Council of Europe, Ukraine and an international coalition of states agreed to establish a new special tribunal.

    The tribunal will eventually be tasked with holding Russia accountable for the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. It’s expected to start operating in 2026.

    Human rights organisations, international lawyers and some (mostly European) states have long been calling for the establishment of such a tribunal. Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, called the establishment of the tribunal:

    an important breakthrough for the international justice community and especially for the millions of Ukrainians who have been harmed by the Russian aggression.

    However, important questions remain about if it could truly hold senior Russian officials accountable.

    So, how will this new special tribunal work, and will it be effective – or necessary?

    How does the special tribunal fill the gaps left by the ICC and ICJ?

    This tribunal is separate to the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

    The ICC can prosecute individuals charged with genocide, war crimes and crimes against humanity in the Russian war on Ukraine. So far, it has issued arrest warrants against four Russian senior officials, including President Vladimir Putin.

    Because Russia is not a member state to the court, the court can’t exercise legal authority over what’s known in international law as a crime of aggression (when leaders of a state launch or plan a war). For the ICC to be able to exercise this jurisdiction, the aggressor state also must be a member state of the court.

    The ICJ is a different court altogether. It primarily deals with and adjudicates disputes between states, not limited to war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. It can’t hold individuals accountable, and can only exercise jurisdiction over a dispute if both states to a dispute agree.

    While the ICC seeks to establish individual criminal responsibility, the ICJ may establish state responsibility for a violation of international law.

    Currently, there are also two cases between Ukraine and Russia before the ICJ.

    Neither deals with the question of the legality of Russia’s use of force in its invasion in February 2022. Both Ukraine and Russia would need to consent to bring this issue before the court.

    So, is a new tribunal necessary?

    Yes, because the crime of aggression currently can’t be addressed by any other international court or tribunal.

    Given the limitations of what the ICJ and ICC can do, a dedicated tribunal seems the obvious solution to hold those responsible for the illegal use of force against Ukraine accountable.

    And it’s not uncommon for specialised tribunals with limited jurisdiction over a specific situation to be created.

    Other historical examples include the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia and the Special Court for Sierra Leone.

    Given the ICC’s lack of jurisdiction over the crime of aggression, the new special tribunal would complement the court’s existing investigations into war crimes and crimes against humanity.

    Who is running the new tribunal and how will it work?

    The exact content and specifics of this new tribunal will remain unknown until the draft statute of the tribunal is published. That’s a document that outlines details including the tribunal’s jurisdiction, the applicable definition of aggression and how the tribunal will function.

    At this stage, the Council of Europe has confirmed the tribunal will work within its legal framework and principles. It will be funded by an international coalition of supportive states.

    A management committee of members and associate members of the tribunal will be responsible for the election of the tribunal’s judges and prosecutors. The management committee is made up of the Council of Europe’s council of ministers and Ukraine.

    Diplomatic discussions are still ongoing at this point, but the legal process for establishing the special tribunal can begin now.

    Will this special tribunal be more effective?

    Political, legal and practical challenges for the special tribunal remain. It’s unclear if the most senior Russian state officials can and will be able to be brought to trial for the crime of aggression.

    Nothing, so far, suggests the statute of the tribunal will contain an exception to state immunity enjoyed by heads of state, heads of governments and foreign ministers while in power.

    That means these office holders can only be prosecuted if they are no longer in power or the Russian government expressly waives their immunity.

    It’s also unclear whether states will be willing to arrest those sought by the special tribunal.

    The ICC has long faced this challenge trying to get states to act on its arrest warrants.

    Hungary, for instance, did not arrest Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu when he visited in April, despite an ICC arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity in connection with the war in Gaza.

    For the special tribunal to be effective, according to Oleksandra Matviichuk, it:

    must not become a remote and hollow entity that does not engage with the Ukrainian victims.

    Overall, much remains unclear. Will this new special tribunal be able to hold the likes of Putin accountable for the crime of aggression? Or will it become another empty promise?

    Yvonne Breitwieser-Faria does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. A new special tribunal will investigate Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Will it be effective? – https://theconversation.com/a-new-special-tribunal-will-investigate-russias-aggression-against-ukraine-will-it-be-effective-257823

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI: WOO X introduces Light Mode for brighter crypto trading experience

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    KINGSTOWN, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, June 19, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — WOO X, a leading crypto trading platform, today announced the launch of Light Mode, a new feature designed to provide traders with a brighter interface option that enhances readability in well-lit environments.

    Light Mode offers users a clean, vivid, and easy-to-navigate interface optimized for well-lit environments, complementing the existing dark mode to deliver greater personalization and user comfort. Now users can seamlessly switch between the two modes at their own convenience.

    Key features:

    • Seamless toggle: Users can effortlessly switch between Light and Dark modes via the app settings.
    • Enhanced readability: Light Mode improves visibility of charts, data, and notifications, reducing eye strain during daytime trading sessions.
    • Personalized trading environment: Empowers users to tailor their interface to their unique preferences and trading conditions.

    WOO X developed Light Mode in response to user feedback and the growing demand for customizable trading experiences. The feature aims to increase trader comfort and engagement, enabling users to focus better on market movements and make informed decisions.

    “At WOO X, we believe trading should adapt to you – not the other way around. With Light Mode, we’re giving our users the freedom to choose an interface that feels comfortable and clear, no matter where or when they trade. It’s a small change that makes a big difference in helping traders stay focused and confident.”

    Ben Yorke, VP of Ecosystem at WOO X.

    About WOO X
    WOO X is a global crypto trading platform committed to delivering innovative features, exceptional liquidity, and a secure, user-friendly environment for traders worldwide. With a focus on transparency and community-driven development, WOO X empowers users to navigate the dynamic crypto markets with confidence.

    Contact: media@woo.network

    A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/1897bb9f-92f1-46a9-be2d-99aa35abeb7e

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI: WOO X introduces Light Mode for brighter crypto trading experience

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    KINGSTOWN, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, June 19, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — WOO X, a leading crypto trading platform, today announced the launch of Light Mode, a new feature designed to provide traders with a brighter interface option that enhances readability in well-lit environments.

    Light Mode offers users a clean, vivid, and easy-to-navigate interface optimized for well-lit environments, complementing the existing dark mode to deliver greater personalization and user comfort. Now users can seamlessly switch between the two modes at their own convenience.

    Key features:

    • Seamless toggle: Users can effortlessly switch between Light and Dark modes via the app settings.
    • Enhanced readability: Light Mode improves visibility of charts, data, and notifications, reducing eye strain during daytime trading sessions.
    • Personalized trading environment: Empowers users to tailor their interface to their unique preferences and trading conditions.

    WOO X developed Light Mode in response to user feedback and the growing demand for customizable trading experiences. The feature aims to increase trader comfort and engagement, enabling users to focus better on market movements and make informed decisions.

    “At WOO X, we believe trading should adapt to you – not the other way around. With Light Mode, we’re giving our users the freedom to choose an interface that feels comfortable and clear, no matter where or when they trade. It’s a small change that makes a big difference in helping traders stay focused and confident.”

    Ben Yorke, VP of Ecosystem at WOO X.

    About WOO X
    WOO X is a global crypto trading platform committed to delivering innovative features, exceptional liquidity, and a secure, user-friendly environment for traders worldwide. With a focus on transparency and community-driven development, WOO X empowers users to navigate the dynamic crypto markets with confidence.

    Contact: media@woo.network

    A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/1897bb9f-92f1-46a9-be2d-99aa35abeb7e

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Samsung Electronics Partners With Electronic Arts and Xbox To Bring EA SPORTS FC™ 25 to Samsung Gaming Hub

    Source: Samsung

     
    Samsung Electronics today announced a partnership with Electronic Arts (EA) and Xbox to bring the action of EA SPORTS FCTM 25 to Samsung Gaming Hub. Samsung TV and monitor owners can now play EA SPORTS FC 25 through the Xbox app with Xbox Cloud Gaming (Beta)1 on supported devices.2 All players need to get started is a compatible controller and Xbox Game Pass Ultimate, which includes EA Play.
     
    As a special promotion, new Xbox Game Pass subscribers can receive a two-month Ultimate Game Pass subscription.3 The offer is available to both existing Samsung TV owners and those who buy a new, qualifying TV. To redeem, users can simply download the Samsung Promotions app on their Samsung TV, click the Xbox promotion banner or scan the QR code with their mobile device, and then follow the steps on the screen to activate their offer.
     
    “We are delighted to bring EA SPORTS FC 25 to Samsung TVs and monitors through cloud gaming on Samsung Gaming Hub,” said Hun Lee, Executive Vice President of the Visual Display Business at Samsung Electronics. “As the world’s leading TV manufacturer, one of our goals is to immerse soccer fans around the world in the exciting game of soccer, whether they are playing the game or watching a match live on a Samsung TV.”
     
    EA SPORTS FC 25 gives players more ways to win for the club, by teaming up with friends across their favorite modes with 5v5 Rush and managing their clubs to victory as FC IQ delivers more tactical control than ever before. Fans will also continue to experience unparalleled authenticity with the most true-to-life experience of football’s biggest competitions, clubs and stars. FC 25 features over 19,000 athletes across more than 700 teams, 120 stadiums and 30 leagues from around the world.
     
    Samsung Gaming Hub, first introduced in 2022, has redefined home entertainment by giving players access to thousands of games directly on Samsung TVs and monitors. This includes the 2025 TV series, spanning Samsung Neo QLED 8K, Neo QLED 4K, OLED, QLED, The Frame and The Frame Pro, which are powered by Samsung Vision AI for AI enhanced picture and sound, along with new personalized features that bring people closer to the shows, movies and games they love.
     
    In a first for the TV industry, Samsung has partnered with Microsoft to integrate Xbox Cloud Gaming (Beta) into its smart TVs and monitors, and now supports a wide range of streamed games from partners including NVIDIA GeForce NOW and Amazon Luna.
     
    For more information on Samsung Gaming Hub, please visit www.samsung.com.
     
     
    1 In 27 countries (Argentina, Brazil, Canada, Mexico, United States, Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Australia, New Zealand, Korea), the game is available via Samsung Gaming Hub.
    Supported features and games may vary by country and model. An internet connection, additional gaming service subscription and compatible controller are required. Samsung Account required for network-based smart services, including streaming apps and other smart features.
    2 Available on select 2022 or later Samsung Smart TVs and Monitors.
    3 Claim Game Pass Ultimate trial by August 12,2025. Redeem at https://www.xbox.com/redeem by August 19, 2025. Valid for new Xbox Game Pass members only. Available in all regions with Xbox Cloud Gaming (Beta) supporting the Xbox app on Samsung, excluding Korea and Argentina.

    MIL OSI Global Banks

  • MIL-OSI Banking: Living With Art: Samsung and Art Basel Spark Global Dialogue on Digital Art and Everyday Creativity

    Source: Samsung

    ▲ RM reflects on how art is transforming his life at “Talk With RM” during Art Basel in Basel 2025.
     
    As the art world converges at Art Basel in Basel 2025, Samsung Electronics hosted a special two-part media session spotlighting the evolving role of art in daily life. Titled “Living With Art,” the event brought together Samsung Art TV global ambassador RM of 21st century pop icons BTS, Clément Delépine, Director of Art Basel Paris and featured artist Basim Magdy to explore how technology is transforming how people experience, collect and live with art.
     
    Together with Sofia Monteiro, Curator at Samsung Art Store Europe, the speakers shared how digital platforms like Samsung Art TV are helping to make art more accessible, more personal and more emotionally resonant in people’s everyday lives.
     
     
    Part 1: RM on Finding Peace, Presence and Personal Taste Through Art

    ▲ “Talk With RM” at Art Basel in Basel

     
    RM spoke candidly about how art has become a profound source of comfort, curiosity and connection in his life. Seated with Monteiro in a relaxed lounge space, he reflected on his early love of literature, his discovery of visual art and how innovative digital platforms like Samsung Art Store are modernizing access to art, particularly for those unsure where to begin.
     
    “Art is already deeply embedded in our lives — in literature, architecture, film and, of course, music,” he shared. “But a lot of people still find art hard to understand. I think it’s already inside of us.”
     
    That sense of instinctual connection came into focus during a tour stop in Chicago. With time to spare, RM visited the Art Institute of Chicago, and something shifted. “I wanted to see Monet and other artists I had only read about,” RM recalled. “When I saw those works up close, the details, the textures — I was really impressed.”
     
    RM noted that the idea of art grounding people in beauty, even in quiet or overlooked moments, is what makes living with art so meaningful. It’s also what drew him to The Frame. “Friends come over and think it’s a new media art, not a TV.”
     
    He emphasized that digital tools can make discovery more intuitive, even playful. “Art Store Streams on Samsung Art Store break down barriers and introduce me to artists I might never encounter otherwise.”
     
    ▲ (From left) Daniel Fanslau, RM and Sofia Monteiro
     
    RM’s participation at Art Basel in Basel 2025 also marked the launch of his curated collection on Samsung Art Store, offering users a glimpse into his artistic sensibilities with selected works that span emerging global voices to timeless modernists.
     
    He said that he asks simple questions — such as “Who made this? And why did they make it?” — that allow him to dive deeper into the artwork.
     
     
    Part 2: Reimagining the Art Experience With Technology
    ▲ (From left) Clément Delépine, Basim Magdy and Sofia Monteiro
     
    The second session shifted from personal reflection to industry insight, featuring a panel moderated by Sofia Monteiro with Basim Magdy, a multi-disciplinary artist, and Clément Delépine, Director of Art Basel Paris. Together, they unpacked how digital tools are reshaping the way in which people discover, engage with and collect art.
     
    Delépine reflected on a cultural shift — noting that while physical artwork still holds tremendous value, there has been a transformational shift in how people experience them. “People may still aspire to see or own a piece of art, but their discovery now incorporates new avenues — digital galleries, curated feeds and even algorithmic discovery,” he said. “It’s no longer just about owning an object — it’s about the experience that leads you there.”
     
    This shift from ownership to experience is especially meaningful during a time when access to physical galleries remains limited for many. Magdy emphasized the power of being able to share art with audiences around the world. “You’re connecting with people you may never meet, and that’s both beautiful and a little surreal,” he said. “It’s not a replacement for seeing art in person, but it invites emotional connection in a new way.”
     
    The panelists also agreed that platforms like Samsung Art Store can help people discover their artistic preferences through visual immersion. “The Frame reminds me of how we used to collect and curate images online,” Delépine shared. “You’d collect images, and over time, patterns would emerge. That process helped shape your taste, and The Frame enables something similar but in your own space.”
     
    The conversation also acknowledged the importance of preserving the emotional depth of art, even as it becomes more digitized. “It’s like listening to your favorite band at home versus being at the concert,” said Magdy. “Digital can’t replicate everything, but it can open the door. And that matters.”
     
    Looking ahead, Delépine pointed to AI as a tool that will likely shape the future of art, but one that shouldn’t overshadow human touch. “Using AI won’t make you an artist, just how editing tools don’t make you a director,” he said. “Vision still matters more than the tools.”
     
    The panelists reinforced a shared vision — that technology expands, rather than diminishes, the power of art. By making it easier to access, explore and connect with, platforms like Samsung Art Store are helping to democratize creativity for a new generation of collectors and viewers alike.
     
     
    A Seamless Union: Art, Technology and Accessibility
    The event coincided with the launch of the Art Basel in Basel (ABB) Collection, the largest Art Basel curation yet on Samsung Art Store — featuring 38 curated works that span continents, mediums and generations. For the first time, the collection includes contributions from an Africa-based gallery and a broader variety of emerging voices.
     
    At Samsung ArtCube, visitors were invited to explore these works up close through Samsung Art TVs including The Frame, The Frame Pro, Neo QLED 8K and MICRO LED — demonstrating how display innovation can enhance the emotional impact of fine art in the home.
     
    “At Samsung, we see technology as a bridge, not a barrier, to emotional and cultural connection,” said Amelia-Eve Warden, Senior Communications Manager at Samsung Europe. “Whether it’s discovering a new artist or reinterpreting a classic, we’re proud to help more people make art part of their everyday rhythm.”
     
     
    Living With Art On Your Terms
    ▲ RM poses for a photo at the “Talk With RM” session.
     
    From RM’s candid reflections to the expert insights of art world leaders, the “Living With Art” sessions reinforced a shared belief — that art is no longer something to visit, but something to live with. Whether through a museum visit, a personal collection or a digital frame in the living room, art today is closer, more personal and more resonant than ever before.
     
    As Samsung continues its partnership with Art Basel across all four global editions, the message is clear. Art doesn’t need to live on a pedestal. It can live with the viewer.

    MIL OSI Global Banks