Source: United States Senator for Rhode Island Jack Reed
WASHINGTON, DC – After severe winter storms over the weekend caused major flooding and wind damage across several states, including Kentucky, Tennessee, Georgia, Virginia, and West Virginia, causing multiple deaths and leaving communities in disrepair, U.S. Senator Jack Reed (D-RI), a member of the Appropriations Committee, said it is important for the federal government to help states recover and assist flood victims and those directly impacted.
“When Rhode Island has been hit by major flooding in the past, the federal government has stepped in with real relief and it needs to do the same for people in Kentucky and other states impacted by climate change and severe weather. These devastating floods are further proof that Congress must act swiftly to reauthorize the National Flood Insurance Program, invest in flood resilience, and double down on clean energy,” said Senator Reed. “Ordinary Americans can see and feel the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise for themselves. Climate change is real and is having a widespread, devastating impact. The federal government can’t bury its head in the sand or drill its way out of this problem, it needs to invest wisely and help communities adapt.”
The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) was originally established in 1968 and is the principal provider of flood insurance across the United States. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) manages the flood-insurance program and pays NFIP claims.
NFIP’s authorization is set to expire on March 14, 2025 unless Congress and President Trump take action. Project 2025 calls for abolishing the NFIP, which could cause major economic upheaval, disrupting home sales and property insurance nationwide.
All fifty states have been or are currently going through a federal-state assessment process with FEMA for how states conduct floodplain management programs for all state-owned properties and state-development projects that are in Special Flood Hazard Areas to determine compliance with the minimum requirements of the NFIP.
“Higher seas and stronger storms are already in the forecast and homeowners, renters, businesses, and communities nationwide are at risk of substantial losses due to flooding. Insurance companies are abandoning entire states due to the risk of climate change driven weather. The National Flood Insurance Program provides a way to protect against such risk and the program should be reauthorized and improved to better protect the public,” said Senator Reed. “We also need coordinated national action and global leadership on climate change. President Trump is irresponsibly undoing long-term environmental investments in order to generate bigger tax windfalls for the wealthy. Instead, we should be focusing on improving the resilience of American communities and our economy by strengthening our infrastructure and protecting natural resources.”
Reed noted that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) plays a key role monitoring extreme weather, tracking water levels, and informing communities and residents when life-threatening flooding may occur and prompting evacuations.
But despite the critical roles that both FEMA and NOAA play, the Trump Administration continues to target these federal agencies for mass-firings and funding cuts that could undercut their ability to protect Americans in future emergencies.
The Pollok Community Hall and Emergency Hub is working with the Tāmaki Makaurau Recovery Office, helping drive recovery planning in the Āwhitu community.This is part of a series of partnershipsin heavily-impacted communities across Auckland. Communities are being supported to develop practical plans, which will include activities and priorities that can be delivered to improve well-being and flourishing as they recover.
Since major 2023 storms affected the Āwhitu region, its resourceful local communities have come together to help each other move forward with resilience.
At the heart of this collective effort is the Pollok Community Hall and Emergency Hub, led and delivered by the community. As recovery continues, the group is working alongside residents, businesses and organisations to rebuild with hope, and the aim of leaving no one behind.
Mayor Wayne Brown assesses slip damage in Awhitu
A community tested by adversity
Storms in early 2023 caused widespread disruption, leaving many local families, homes and businesses in distress. Being on a peninsula, power outages, flooding and damage to infrastructure made life difficult for the community. But despite the challenges, the spirit of solidarity emerged as neighbours helped each other and local organisations quickly mobilised.
“We’ve had big storms before but Cyclone Gabrielle was different,” says Peter Sharps, Chairman of Pollok Community Hall and Emergency Hub.
“We just help each other. Whether it’s providing shelter for people that can’t access their homes, or locals using bulldozers to move trees off the road.”
Local farmer Richard Craig adds, “My family has been here since the 1860s. So, we were well-prepared, but the storm trashed everything.”
“Seven out of eight bridges on my property were submerged, and an arterial road collapsed onto our property. I had no income for six months while repairing the farm. But I survived with support from my bank, the Ministry of Primary Industries, and businesses were kind, offering discounted supplies which made a huge difference.”
Peter Sharps (credit Hon Andrew Bayly MP)
Pollok Community Hall and Emergency Hub: Aligning with our mission
The group is dedicated to serving the community through a hall and emergency centre.
“Our mission is to strengthen the local community by fostering connections, offering vital services, and preserving historically significant sites,” says Peter. “This requires bringing people together. So, since the storm, we’ve organised several community meetings and formed a steering group to help shape a recovery plan that reflects the diverse needs of the community.”
“It’s hard to get people to come together for anything,” says committee member Francie Craig. “So, it was amazing to see so many people show up for our recovery planning meeting.”
As recovery progresses, the focus has shifted from immediate relief to long-term planning. Auckland Council is supporting through initiatives including disaster preparedness workshops and local recovery support.
“Wind and rain caused major damage,” says local Ian McNaughton. “I lost two acres of fencing and water supply. The rain wiped out the well, and damaged trees. With only one road in and out after Pollok, I’m keen for us to think about access to the peninsula.”
The community’s focus is on building a united approach to recovery that is sustainable and accessible for all. This includes developing a united vision as well as planning the practicalities like generators and making sure accommodation/refuge are available for everyone.
Āwhitu Road slip repaired
Get involved in recovery planning
The group invites everyone in the community to participate in recovery efforts.
“Whether attending a planning session, volunteering or contributing ideas for future projects, your involvement is essential to rebuilding stronger than before,” says Peter. “Our recovery won’t succeed without everyone’s contribution. This is a collective effort, and everyone’s voice is critical in shaping our path forward.”
All residents are encouraged to join in recovery meetings and events, share their thoughts, and help create a recovery plan that works for everyone.
Headline: Governor Josh Stein Advocates For $19 Billion In Federal Helene Recovery Funds
Governor Josh Stein Advocates For $19 Billion In Federal Helene Recovery Funds lsaito
Raleigh, NC
Today, Governor Josh Stein announced he is requesting $19 billion in federal funds for Helene recovery and rebuilding. The Governor met with Senators Tillis and Budd Thursday to advocate for critical investments in western North Carolina’s recovery. Read Governor Stein’s full statement below:
“Hurricane Helene destroyed so much across western North Carolina – lives, homes, businesses, farms, and infrastructure — and our state is facing nearly $60 billion in damages. Despite a focused response from federal, state, local, and private sector and nonprofit partners in the immediate aftermath, five months later, it is clear that much more help is needed to restore and rebuild western North Carolina. That’s why I am requesting $19 billion in federal funds for Helene recovery. We must support home rebuilding, restore critical infrastructure, keep businesses open, shore up local governments, and reduce impacts from future natural disasters. The state has already committed more than $1 billion in funding, and I am working with the legislature to deliver more needed resources. With continued commitment of the federal and state governments, we will enable the people of western North Carolina to come back stronger than ever before.”
Source: United States Senator for Commonwealth of Virginia Mark R Warner
WASHINGTON – U.S. Sens. Mark Warner and Tim Kaine (both D-VA) and Thom Tillis and Ted Budd (both R-NC) today wrote to U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and U.S. Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, urging them to expeditiously allocate funding appropriated by Congress for public lands in Virginia and North Carolina that were ravaged by Hurricane Helene.
Hurricane Helene devasted communities across North Carolina, Virginia, and large swaths of the Southeast in September 2024. Historic flooding and high winds resulted in over a hundred deaths, damaged and destroyed thousands of homes and businesses, and decimated critical regional infrastructure. Additionally, the storm caused unprecedented damage to public lands in western North Carolina and Southwest Virginia that are essential drivers of economic activity for many communities. The American Relief Act of 2025 contained robust funding to address natural disaster-related damage to public lands across the U.S., including $6.4 billion for the U.S. Forest Service and $2.3 billion for the National Park Service.
Wrote the senators, “Public lands managed by USDA and DOI are crucial economic engines for communities throughout western North Carolina and Southwest Virginia. For example, the National Park Service’s (NPS) most visited unit, the Blue Ridge Parkway, which spans 469 miles across the Blue Ridge Mountains in North Carolina and Virginia, supports the economies of dozens of communities in our states. In 2023, 16.7 million visitors spent nearly $1.4 billion in communities surrounding the Parkway, which supported over 19,000 jobs. Helene decimated the Blue Ridge Parkway resulting in indefinite closures along large portions of the roadway and damage to many trails, historical sites, and recreational areas. The recovery effort for the Parkway will be one of the most significant and expensive infrastructure projects in the park’s history, and its success will be essential for the dozens of gateway communities that rely on the Parkway.”
Added the lawmakers, “In addition to National Park Service managed property, many of our communities in Southwest Virginia and western North Carolina contain U.S. Forest Service lands that were decimated by Hurricane Helene. This includes the George Washington and Jefferson National Forests in Virginia, the Cherokee National Forest in Tennessee and North Carolina, and the Nantahala and Pisgah National Forests in western North Carolina. These lands attract millions of visitors each year who contribute millions more in visitor spending that sustains countless small businesses and gateway communities.”
The senators also singled out the damage sustained by the Virginia Creeper Trail, writing, “Perhaps no Forest Service asset in the country suffered more damage from Hurricane Helene than the Virginia Creeper Trail, a 34-mile recreational trail that is co-managed by the Forest Service and the towns of Damascus and Abingdon in Southwest Virginia. The storm obliterated 18 miles of the Creeper Trail from Damascus to Whitetop, Virginia, destroying 18 trestles and washing away extended segments of the trail itself. The Creeper Trail is the most significant driver of economic activity in Damascus and one of the significant tourism destinations in the entire region. The trail attracts more then 200,000 visitors annually, supporting local bike shops, restaurants, and lodging. In all, the Creeper Trail contributes nearly $13 million annually in tourism spending to the region’s economy. A prolonged closure of the trail could have devasting consequences for Damascus and the entire region. It is critical that USDA and the Forest Service move quickly to allocate appropriated funding to rebuild the Creeper Trail to ensure Damascus and other localities that depend on the trail can fully recovery from Helene.”
Concluded the senators, “As our states continue to rebuild from Hurricane Helene, it is critical that this supplemental funding is deployed to our public lands swiftly to ensure a timely rebuild of these assets that our communities depend on.”
Berrien Moore III, Dean of the College of Atmospheric and Geographic Sciences at the University of Oklahoma (OU), director of the National Weather Center in Norman, OK, and Vice President for Weather and Climate Programs, died on December 17, 2024. Berrien earned an undergraduate degree from the University of North Carolina in 1963 and a doctorate degree from the University of Virginia in 1969. After graduating, he taught mathematics at the University of New Hampshire (UNH) and became tenured in 1976. In 1987, Berrien became director of the Institute for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space (ISEOS) at UNH. NASA chose ISEOS to be one of the 24 founding members of the “Working Prototype Federation” of Earth Science Information Partners (ESIP) in 1998. Still active more than 25 years later, ESIP is now a thriving nonprofit entity funded by cooperative agreements with NASA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and the U.S. Geological Survey, which brings together interdisciplinary collaborations (among over 170 partners) to share technical knowledge and engage with data users. Berrien left UNH in 2008, to serve as the founding Executive Director of Climate Central, a think-tank based in Princeton, NJ, which is dedicated to providing objective and understandable information about climate change Berrien moved to OU in 2010. Given his diverse academic, research, and career experience in global carbon cycle, biogeochemistry, remote sensing, environmental and space policy, and mathematics, Berrien was a natural choice to become the architect and principal investigator for the Geostationary Carbon Cycle Observatory (GeoCARB), a proposed NASA Earth Venture Mission that would have monitored plant health and vegetation stress throughout the Americas from geostationary orbit, probing natural sources, sinks, and exchange processes that control carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane in the atmosphere. While the mission was ultimately cancelled, the lessons learned are being applied to similar current and future Earth observing endeavors, e,g, NASA’s ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission. Berrien served on and chaired numerous government-affiliated scientific committees throughout his career. From 1995–1998 he served on the National Research Council’s Committee on Global Change Research, which produced the landmark report, “Global Environment Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade.” In 2011, he was an author on the National Research Council’s (NRC) decadal survey, “Earth Science and Applications from Space: A Community Assessment and Strategies for the Future.” Berrien participated on international scientific committees as well. From 1998–2002, he was the chair of the Science Committee of the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP). He was also a lead author within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Third Assessment Report, which was released in 2001. Berrien served in several roles specific to NASA, including as a committee member and later chair of the organization’s Space and Earth Science Advisory Committee. He served as Chair of the Earth Observing System (EOS) Payload Advisory Committee, member and Chair of NASA’s Earth Science and Applications Committee, and member of the NASA Advisory Council. He was also active at NOAA, having chaired the agency’s Research Review Team and served on the Research and Development Portfolio Review Team for NOAA’s Science Advisory Board. Berrien received NASA’s highest civilian honor, the Distinguished Public Service Medal, for outstanding service and the NOAA Administrator’s Recognition Award. He also received the 2007 Dryden Lectureship in Research Medal from the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics and was honored for his contributions to the IPCC when the organization received the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.
Pierre Morel, the first director of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and founding member of WCRP’s Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Core project, died on December 10, 2024. Pierre began his research as a theoretical physicist. His doctoral thesis examined the existence and properties of a condensed superfluid state of liquid Helium 3 at very low temperature. He lectured on basic physics, geophysical fluid dynamics, and climate science. As his career progressed, he focused his research on studying the circulation of the atmosphere. He was devoted to the development of numerical modelling of atmospheric flow that laid the groundwork for the study of climatology. Pierre’s work played an integral role in the development of tools used to study the atmosphere, many of which are still active today. Examples include Project Éole – an experimental wind energy plant conceived in the 1980s and created in Quebec, Canada that closed down in 1993; the ARGOS satellite, a collaboration between the Centre National d’Études Spatiale (CNES) [French Space Agency], National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and NASA, to collect and relay meteorological and oceanographic data around the world that launched in 1978; the Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking (SARSAT) system, which was developed by the U.S. – specifically NOAA, NASA, and the U.S. Coast Guard and Air Force – Canada, and France, with the first satellite launch in 1982; and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites’ METEOSAT series of geostationary satellites, which launched in 1977 and remain active today. The launch of Meteosat–12 in 2022 was the first METEOSAT Third Generation (MTG) launch. Early in his career, Pierre was the director of the French Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) before he became the director of the Centre National d’Études Spatiales (CNES). In 1980 he became the first chairman of the WCRP, where he steered a broad interdisciplinary research program in global climate and Earth system science that involved the participation of atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and polar scientists worldwide. Pierre was later in charge of planetary programs at NASA and was involved in discussions about the future of NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) in the mid-to-late 1990s. As an example, the Earth Observer article, “Minutes Of The Fourteenth Earth Science Enterprise/Earth Observing System (ESE/EOS) Investigators Working Group Meeting,” includes a summary of a presentation Pierre gave that focused on flight mission planning for the EOS “second series,” which was NASA’s plan at the time although ultimately not pursued, with the “first series” (i.e., Terra, Aqua, Aura) enduring much longer than anticipated. Pierre was the recipient of the 2008 Alfred Wegener Medal & Honorary Membership for his outstanding contributions to geophysical fluid dynamics, his leadership in the development of climate research, and the applications of space observation to meteorology and the Earth system science.
Introduction The NASA Land-Cover and Land-Use Change (LCLUC) is an interdisciplinary scientific program within NASA’s Earth Science program that aims to develop the capability for periodic global inventories of land use and land cover from space. The program’s goal is to develop the mapping, monitoring and modeling capabilities necessary to simulate the processes taking place and evaluate the consequences of observed and predicted changes. The South/Southeast Asia Research Initiative (SARI) has a similar goal for South/Southeast Asia, as it seeks to develop innovative regional research, education, and capacity building programs involving state-of-the-art remote sensing, natural sciences, engineering, and social sciences to enrich land use/cover change (LUCC) science in South/Southeast Asia. Thus it makes sense for these two entities to periodically meet jointly to discuss their endeavors. The latest of these joint meetings took place January 1–February 2, 2024, in Hanoi, Vietnam. A total of 85 participants attended the three-day, in-person meeting—see Photo. A total of 85 participants attended the three-day, in-person meeting. The attendees represented multiple international institutions, including NASA (Headquarters and Centers), the University of Maryland, College Park (UMD), other American academic institutions, the Vietnam National Space Center (VNSC, the event host), the Vietnam National University’s University of Engineering and Technology, and Ho Chi Minh University of Technology, the Japanese National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES), Center for Environmental Sciences, and the University of Tokyo. In addition, several international programs participated, including GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM), the System for Analysis, Research and Training (START), Global Observation of Forest and Land-use Dynamics (GOFC–GOLD), and NASA Harvest.
Meeting Overview The purpose of the 2024 NASA LCLUC–SARI Synthesis meeting was to discuss LUCC issues – with a particular focus on their impact on Southeast Asian countries. Presenters highlighted ongoing projects aimed to advance our understanding of the spatial extent, intensity, social consequences, and impacts on the environment in South/Southeast Asian countries. While presenters reported on specific science results, they also were intentional to review and synthesize work from other related projects going on in Southeast Asia. Meeting Goal The meeting’s overarching goal was to create a comprehensive and holistic understanding of various LUCC issues by examining them from multiple angles, including: collating information; employing interdisciplinary approaches; integrating research; identifying key insights; and enhancing regional collaborations. The meeting sought to bring the investigators together to bridge gaps, promote collaborations, and advance knowledge regarding LUCC issues in the region. The meeting format also provided ample time between sessions for networking to promote coordination and collaboration among scientists and teams. Meeting and Summary Format The meeting consisted of seven sessions that focused on various LUCC issues. The summary report that follows is organized by day and then by session. All presentations in Session I and II are summarized (i.e., with all speakers, affiliations, and appropriate titles identified). The keynote presentation(s) from Sessions III–VI are summarized similarly. The technical presentations in each of these sessions are presented as narrative summaries. Session VII consisted of topical discussions to close out the meeting and summaries of these discussions are included herein. Sessions III–VI also included panel discussions, but to keep the article length more manageable, summaries of these discussions have been omitted. Readers interested in learning more about the panel discussions or viewing any of these presentations in full can access the information on the Joint LCLUC–SARI Synthesis meeting website. DAY ONE The first day of the meeting included welcoming remarks from the U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam (Session I), program executives of LCLUC and SARI, as well as from national space agencies in South and Southeast Asia (Session II), and other LCLUC-thematic/overview presentations (Session III). Session 1: Welcoming Remarks Garik Gutman [NASA Headquarters—LCLUC Program Manager], Vu Tuan [VNSC’s Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology (VAST)—Vice Director General], Chris Justice [University of Maryland, College Park (UMD)—LCLUC Program Scientist], Matsunaga Tsuneo [National Institute of Environmental Studies (NIES), Japan], and Krishna Vadrevu [NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center—SARI Lead] delivered opening remarks that highlighted collaborations across air pollution, agriculture, forestry, urban development, and other LUCC research areas. While each of the speakers covered different topics, they emphasized common themes, including advancing new science algorithms, co-developing products, and fostering applications through capacity building and training. After the opening remarks, special guest Marc Knapper [U.S. Ambassador to Vietnam] gave a presentation in which he emphasized the value of collaborative research between U.S. and Vietnamese scientists to address environmental challenges – especially climate change and LUCC issues. He expressed appreciation to the meeting organizers for promoting these collaborations and highlighted the joint initiatives between NASA and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to monitor environmental health and climate change, develop policies to reduce emissions, and support adaptation in agriculture. The U.S.–Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership emphasizes the commitment to address climate challenges and advance bilateral research. He concluded by encouraging active participation from all attendees and stressed the need for ongoing international collaboration to develop effective LUCC policies. Session-II: Programmatic and Space Agency Presentations NOTE: Other than Ambassador Knapper, the presenters in Session I gave welcoming remarks and programmatic and/or space agency presentations in Session II,. Garik Gutman began the second session by presenting an overview of the LCLUC program, which aims to enhance understanding of LUCC dynamics and environmental implications by integrating diverse data sources (i.e., satellite remote sensing) with socioeconomic and ecological datasets for a comprehensive view of land-use change drivers and consequences. Over the past 25 years, LCLUC has funded over 325 projects involving more than 800 researchers, resulting in over 1500 publications. The program’s focus balances project distribution that spans detection and monitoring, and impacts and consequences, including drivers, modeling, and synthesis. Gutman highlighted examples of population growth and urban expansion in Southeast Asia, resulting in environmental and socio-economic impacts. Urbanization accelerates deforestation, shifts farming practices to higher-value crops, and contributes to the loss of wetlands. This transformation alters the carbon cycle, degrades air quality, and increases flooding risks due to reduced rainwater absorption. Multi-source remote sensing data and social dimensions are essential in addressing LUCC issues, and the program aims to foster international collaborations and capacity building in land-change science through partnerships and training initiatives. (To learn more about the recent activities of the LCLUC Science Team, see Summary of the 2024 Land Cover Land Use Change Science Team Meeting.) Krishna Vadrevu explained how SARI connects regional and national projects with researchers from the U.S. and local institutions to advance LUCC mapping, monitoring, and impact assessments through shared methodologies and data. The initiative has spurred extensive activities, including meetings, training sessions, publications, collaborations, and fieldwork. To date, the LCLUC program has funded 35 SARI projects and helped build collaborations with space agencies, universities, and decision-makers worldwide. SARI Principal Investigators have documented notable land-cover and land-use transformations, observing shifts in land conversion practices across Asia. For example, the transition from traditional slash-and-burn practices for subsistence agriculture to industrial oil palm and rubber plantations in Southeast Asia. Rapid urbanization has also reshaped several South and Southeast Asian regions, expanding both horizontally in rural areas and vertically in urban centers. The current SARI solicitation funds three projects across Asia, integrating the latest remote sensing data and methods to map, monitor, and assess LUCC drivers and impacts to support policy-making. Vu Tuan provided a comprehensive overview of Vietnam’s advances in satellite technology and Earth observation capabilities, particularly through the LOTUSat-1 satellite (name derived from the “Lotus” flower), which is equipped with an advanced X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensor capable of providing high-resolution imagery [ranging from 1–16 m (3–52 ft)]. This satellite is integral to Vietnam’s efforts to enhance disaster management and climate change mitigation, as well as to support a range of applications in topography, agriculture, forestry, and water management, as well as in oceanography and environmental monitoring. The VNSC’s efforts are part of a broader strategy to build national expertise and self-reliance in satellite technology, such as developing a range of small satellites (e.g., NanoDragon, PicoDragon, and MicroDragon) that progress in size and capability. Alongside satellite development, the VNSC has established key infrastructure, facilities, and capacity building in Hanoi, Nha Trang, and Ho Chi Minh City to support satellite assembly, integration, testing, and operation. Tuan showcased the application of remotely sensed LUCC data to map and monitor urban expansion in Ha Long city from 2000–2023 and the policies needed to manage these changes sustainably – see Figure 1.
Tsuneo Matsunaga provided a detailed overview of Japan’s Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) series of satellites, data from which provide valuable insights into global greenhouse gas (GHG) trends and support international climate agreements, including the Paris Agreement. Matsunaga reviewed the first two satellites in the series: GOSAT and GOSAT-2, then previewed the next satellite in the series: GOSAT-GW, which is scheduled to launch in 2025. GOSAT-GW will fly the Total Anthropogenic and Natural Emissions Mapping Observatory–3 (TANSO-3) – an improved version of TANSO-2, which flies on GOSAT-2. TANSO-3 includes a Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS-3) that has improved spatial resolution [10.5 km (6.5 mi)] over TANSO-FTS-2 and precision that matches or exceeds that of its predecessor. TANSO-FTS-3 will allow estimates with precision better than 1 ppm for carbon dioxide (CO2) and 10 ppb for methane (CH4), as well as enabling nitrogen dioxide (NO2) measurements. GOSAT–GW will also fly the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR3) that will monitor water cycle components (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture) and ocean surface winds. AMSR3 builds on the heritage of three previous AMSR instruments that have flown on NASA and Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) missions. Matsunaga also highlighted the importance of ground-based validation networks, such as the Total Carbon Column Observing Network, COllaborative Carbon Column Observing Network, and the Pandora Global Network, to ensure satellite data accuracy. Son Nghiem [NASA/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL)] addressed dynamic LUCC in Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia. The synthesis study examined the factors that evolve along the rural–urban continuum (RUC). Nghiem showcased this effort using Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data from the Copernicus Sentinel-1 mission to map a typical RUC in Bac Lieu, Vietnam – see Figure 2.
Nghiem described the study, which examined the role of rapid urbanization, agricultural conversion, climate change, and environment–human feedback processes in causing non-stationary and unpredictable impacts. This work illustrates how traditional trend analysis is insufficient for future planning. The study also examined whether slower or more gradual changes could inform policy development. To test these hypotheses, his research will integrate high-resolution radar and hyperspectral data with socioeconomic analyses. The study highlights the need for policies that are flexible and responsive to the unique challenges of different areas, particularly in “hot-spot” regions experiencing rapid changes. Peilei Fan [Tufts University] presented a study that synthesizes the complex patterns of LUCC, identifying both the spatial and temporal dynamics that characterize transitions in urban systems. The study explores key drivers, including economic development, population growth, urbanization, agricultural expansion, and policy shifts. She emphasized the importance of understanding these drivers for sustainable land management and urban planning. For example, the Yangon region of Myanmar has undergone rapid urbanization – see Figure 3. Her work reveals the need for integrated approaches that consider both urban and rural perspectives to manage land resources effectively and mitigate negative environmental and social impacts. Through a combination of case studies, statistical analysis, and policy review, Fan and her team aim to provide a nuanced understanding of the interactions between human activities and environmental changes occurring in the rapidly transforming landscapes of Southeast Asia.
Session III: Land Cover/Land Use Change Studies Tanapat Tanaratkaittikul [Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA), Thailand] highlighted GISTDA activities, which play a crucial role in advancing Thailand’s technological capabilities and addressing both national and global challenges, including Thailand Earth Observation System (THEOS) and its successors: THEOS-2 and THEOS-2A. THEOS-1, which launched in 2008, provides 2-m (6-ft) panchromatic and 15-m (45-ft) multispectral resolution with a 26-day revisit cycle, which can be reduced to 3 days with off-nadir pointing. Launched in 2023, THEOS-2 includes two satellites – THEOS-2A [a very high-resolution satellite with 0.5-m (1.5-ft) panchromatic and 2-m (6-ft) multispectral imagery] and THEOS-2B [a high-resolution satellite with 4-m (12-ft) multispectral resolution] – with a five-day revisit cycle. GISTDA also develops geospatial applications for drought assessment, flood prediction, and carbon credit calculations to support government decision-making and climate initiatives. GISTDA partners with international collaborators on regional projects, such as the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Special Fund Project. Eric Vermote [NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center] presented a keynote that focused on atmospheric correction of land remote sensing data and related algorithm updates. He highlighted the necessity of correcting surface imaging for atmospheric effects, such as molecular scattering, aerosol scattering, and gaseous absorption, which can significantly distort the satellite spectral signals and lead to potential errors in applications, such as land cover mapping, vegetation monitoring, and climate change studies. Vermote explained that the surface reflectance algorithm uses precise vector radiative transfer modeling to improve accuracy by incorporating atmospheric parameter inversion. It also adjusts for various atmospheric conditions and aerosol types – enhancing corrections across regions and seasons. He explained that SkyCam – a network of ground-based cameras – provides real-time assessments of cloud cover that can be used to validate cloud masks, while the Cloud and Aerosol Measurement System (CAMSIS) offers additional ground validation by measuring atmospheric conditions. He said that together, SkyCam and CAMSIS improve satellite-derived cloud masks, supporting more accurate climate models and environmental monitoring. Vermote’s work highlights the ongoing advancement of atmospheric correction methods in remote sensing. Other presentations in this session included one in which the speaker described how Yangon, the capital city in Myanmar, is undergoing rapid urbanization and industrial growth. From 1990–2020, the urban area expanded by over 225% – largely at the expense of agricultural and green lands. Twenty-nine industrial zones cover about 10.92% of the city, which have attracted significant foreign direct investment, particularly in labor-intensive sectors. This growth has led to challenges with land confiscations, inadequate infrastructure, and environmental issues (e.g., air pollution). Additionally, rural migration for employment has resulted in informal settlements, emphasizing the need for comprehensive urban planning that balances economic development with social equity and sustainability. Another presentation highlighted varying LUCC trends across Vietnam. In the Northern and Central Coastal Uplands, for example, swidden systems are shifting toward permanent tree crops, such as rubber and coffee. Meanwhile, the Red River Delta is seeing urban densification and consolidation of farmland – transitioning from rice to mixed farming with increased fruit and flower production. Similarly, the Central Coastal Lowlands and Southeastern regions are experiencing urban growth and a shift from coastal agriculture – in this case, to shrimp farming – leading to mangrove loss. The Central Highlands is moving from swidden to tree crops, particularly fruit trees, while the Mekong River Delta is increasing rice cropping and aquaculture. These changes contribute to urbanization, altered farming practices, and biodiversity loss. Advanced algorithms (e.g., the Time-Feature Convolutional Neural Network model) are being used to effectively map these varied LUCC changes in Vietnam. Another presenter explained how 10-m (33-ft) resolution spatially gridded population datasets are essential to address LUCC in environmental and socio-demographic research. There was also a demonstration of PopGrid, which is a collaborative initiative that provides access to various global-gridded population databases, which are valuable for regional LUCC studies and can support informed decision-making and policy development. DAY TWO The second day’s presentations centered around urban LUCC (Session IV) as well as interconnections between agriculture and water resources. (Session V). Session IV: Urban Land Cover/Land Use Change Gay Perez [Philippines Remote Sensing Agency (PhilSA)] presented a keynote focused on PhilSA’s mission to advance Philippines as a space-capable country by developing indigenous satellite and launch technologies. He explained that PhilSA provides satellite data in various categories, including sovereign, commercial, open-access, and disaster-activated. He noted that the ground infrastructure – which includes three stations and a new facility in Quezon – supports efficient data processing. For example, Perez stated that in 2023, PhilSA produced over 10,000 maps for disaster relief, agricultural assessments, and conservation planning. Perez reviewed PhilSA’s Diwata-2 mission, which launched in 2018 and operates in a Sun-synchronous orbit around 620 km (385 mi) above Earth. With a 10-day revisit capability, it features a high-precision telescope [4.7 m (15ft) resolution], a multispectral imager with four bands, an enhanced resolution camera, and a wide-field camera. Since launch, Diwata-2 has captured over 100,000 global images, covering 95% of the Philippines. Looking to the near future, Perez reported that PhilSA’s launch of the Multispectral Unit for Land Assessment (MULA) satellite is planned for 2025. He explained that MULA will capture images with a 5-m (~16-ft) resolution and 10–20-day revisit time, featuring 10 spectral bands for vegetation, water, and urban analysis. Perez also described the Drought and Crop Assessment and Forecasting project, which addresses drought risks and mapping ground motion in areas, e.g., Baguio City and Pangasinan. Through partnerships in the Pan-Asia Partnership for Geospatial Air Pollution Information (PAPGAPI) and the Pandora Asia Network, PhilSA monitors air quality across key locations, tracking urban pollution and cross-border particulate transport. PhilSA continues to strengthen Southeast Asian partnerships to drive sustainable development in the region. Jiquan Chen [Michigan State University] presented the second keynote address, which focused on the Urban Rural Continuum (URC). Chen emphasized the importance of synthesizing studies that explore factors such as population dynamics, living standards, and economic development in the URC. Key considerations include differentiating between two- and three-dimensional infrastructures and understanding constraints from historical contexts. Chen highlighted critical variables from his analysis including net primary productivity, household income, and essential infrastructure elements, such as transportation and healthcare systems. He advocated for integrated models that combine mechanistic and empirical approaches to grasp the dynamics of URC changes, stressing their implications for urban planning, environmental sustainability, and social equity. He concluded with a call for collaboration to enhance these models and tackle challenges arising from the changing urban–rural landscape. Tep Makathy [Cambodian Institute For Urban Studies] discussed urbanization in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. He explained that significant LUCC and infrastructure developments have been fueled by direct foreign investment; however, this development has resulted in environmental degradation, urban flooding, and infrastructure strain. Tackling pollution, congestion, preservation of green spaces, and preserving the historical heritage of the city will require sustainable urban planning efforts. Nguyen Thi Thuy Hang [Vietnam Japan University, Vietnam National University, Hanoi] explained how flooding poses a significant annual threat to infrastructure and livelihoods in Can Tho, Vietnam. Therefore, it is essential to incorporate climate change considerations into land-use planning by enhancing the accuracy of vegetation layer classifications. Doing so will improve the representation of land-cover dynamics in models that decision-makers use when planning urban development. In addition, Hang reported that a more comprehensive survey of dyke systems will improve flood protection and identify areas needing reinforcement or redesign. These studies could also explore salinity intrusion in coastal agricultural areas that could impact crop yields and endanger food security. In this session, two presenters highlighted how SAR data, which uses high backscatter to enhance the radar signal, is being used to assist with mapping urban areas in their respective countries. The phase stability and orientation of building structures across SAR images aid in consistent monitoring and backscatter, producing distinct image textures specific to urban settings. Researchers can use this heterogeneity and texture to map urban footprints, enabling automated discrimination between urban and non-urban areas. The first presenters showed how Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar techniques, such as Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) and Persistent Scatterer (PS) have been highly effective for mapping and monitoring land subsidence in coastal and urban areas in Vietnam. This approach has been applied to areas along the Saigon River as well as in Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. The second presenter described an approach (using SAR data with multitemporal coherence and the K-means classification method) that has been used effectively to study urban growth in the Denpasar Greater Area of Indonesia between 2016 and 2022. The technique identified the conversion of 4376 km2 (1690 mi2) of rural to built-up areas, averaging 72.9 hectares (0.3 mi2) per year. Urban sprawl was predominantly observed in the North Kuta District, where the shift from agricultural to built-up land use has been accompanied by severe traffic congestion and other environmental issues. Another presenter showed how data from the QuikSCAT instrument, which flew on the Quick Scatterometer satellite, and from the Sentinel-1 C-band SAR can be combined to measure and analyze urban built-up volume, specifically focusing on the vertical growth of buildings across various cities. By integrating these datasets, researchers can assess urban expansion, monitor the development of high-rise buildings, and evaluate the impact of urbanization on infrastructure and land use. This information is essential for urban planning, helping city planners and policymakers make informed decisions to accommodate growing populations and enhance sustainable urban development. Session V – LUCC, Agriculture, and Water Resources Chris Justice presented the keynote for this session, in which he addressed the GEOGLAM initiative and the NASA Harvest program. GEOGLAM, initiated by the G20 Agriculture Ministers in 2011, focuses on agriculture and food security to increase market transparency and improve food security. These efforts leverage satellite-based Earth observations to produce and disseminate timely, relevant, and actionable information about agricultural conditions at national, regional, and global scales to support agricultural markets and provide early warnings for proactive responses to emerging food emergencies. NASA Harvest uses satellite Earth observations to benefit global food security, sustainability, and agriculture for disaster response, climate risk assessments, and policy support. Justice also emphasized the use of open science and open data principles, promoting the integration of Earth observation data into national and international agricultural monitoring systems. He also discussed the development and application of essential agricultural variables, in situ data requirements, and the need for comprehensive and accurate satellite data products. During this session, another presentation focused on how VNSC is engaged in several agricultural projects, including mapping rice crops, estimating yields, and assessing environmental impacts. VNSC has created high-accuracy rice maps for different seasons that the Vietnamese government uses to monitor and manage agricultural production. Current initiatives involve using satellite data to estimate CH4 emissions from rice paddies, biomass mapping, and monitoring rice straw burning. For example, in the Mekong Delta, numerous environmental factors, including climate change-induced stress (e.g., sea-level rise), flooding, drought, land subsidence, and saltwater intrusion, along with human activities like dam construction, sand mining, and groundwater extraction, threaten the sustainability of rice farming and farmer livelihoods. To address these challenges, sustainable agricultural practices are essential to improving rice quality, diversify farming systems, adopt low-carbon techniques, and enhance water management. Presentations highlighted the importance of both optical and SAR data for LUCC studies, particularly in mapping agricultural areas. A study using Landsat time-series data demonstrated its value in monitoring agricultural LUCC in Houa Phan Province, Laos, and Son La Province, Vietnam. Land cover types were classified through spectral pattern analysis, identifying distinct classes based on Landsat reflectance values. The findings revealed significant natural forest loss alongside increases in cropland and forest plantations due to agricultural expansion. High-resolution imagery validated these results, indicating the scalability of this approach for broader regional and global land-cover monitoring. Another study showcased the effectiveness of SAR data from the Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (PALSAR-2) on the Japanese Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2) for mapping and monitoring agricultural land use in Suphanburi, Thailand. This data proved particularly useful for capturing seasonal variations and diverse agricultural practices. Supervised machine learning methods, such as Random Forest classifiers, combined with innovative spatial averaging techniques, achieved high accuracy in distinguishing various agricultural conditions. In the session, presenters also discussed the use of Sentinel-1 SAR data for mapping submerged and non-submerged paddy soils was highlighted, demonstrating its effectiveness in understanding water management issues see – Figure 4. Additionally, large-scale remote sensing data and cloud computing were shown to provide unprecedented opportunities for tracking agricultural land-use changes in greater detail. Case studies from India and China illustrated key challenges, such as groundwater depletion in irrigated agriculture across the Indo-Ganges region and the impacts on food, water, and air quality in both countries.
The session also focused on Water–Energy–Food (WEF) issues related to the Mekong River Basin’s extensive network of hydroelectric dams, which present both benefits and challenges. While these dams support sectors such as irrigated agriculture and hydropower, they also disrupt vital ecosystem services, including fish habitats and biodiversity. Collaborative studies integrating satellite and ground data, hydrological models, and socio-economic frameworks highlight the need to balance these benefits with ecological and social costs. Achieving sustainable management requires cross-sectoral and cross-border cooperation, as well as the incorporation of traditional knowledge to address WEF trade-offs and governance challenges in the region. DAY THREE The third day included a session that explored the impacts of fire, GHG emissions, and pollution (Session VI) as well as a summary discussion on synthesis (Session VII). Session VI: Fires, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Pollution Chris Elvidge [Colorado School of Mines] presented a keynote on the capabilities and applications of the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Nightfire [VNF] system, an advanced satellite-based tool developed by the Earth Observation Group. VIIRS Nightfire uses four near- and short-wave infrared channels, initially designed for daytime imaging, to detect and monitor infrared emissions at night. The system identifies various combustion sources, including both flaming and non-flaming activities (e.g., biomass burning, gas flaring, and industrial processes). It calculates the temperature, source area, and radiant heat of detected infrared emitters using physical laws to enable precise monitoring of combustion events and provide insight into exothermic and endothermic processes. Elvidge explained that VNF has been vital for near-real-time data in Southeast Asia. The system has been used to issue daily alerts for Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia. Recent updates in Version 4 (V4) include atmospheric corrections and testing for secondary emitters with algorithmic improvements – with a 50% success rate in identifying additional heat sources. The Earth Observation Group maintains a multiyear catalog of over 20,000 industrial infrared emitters available through the Global Infrared Emitter Explorer (GIREE) web-map service. With VIIRS sensors expected to operate until about 2040 on the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) platforms, this system ensures long-term, robust monitoring and analysis of global combustion events, proving essential for tracking the environmental impacts of industrial activities and natural combustion processes on the atmosphere and ecosystems. Toshimasa Ohara [Center for Environmental Science, Japan—Research Director] continued with the second keynote and provided an in-depth analysis of long-term trends in anthropogenic emissions across Asia. The regional mission inventory in Asia encompasses a range of pollutants and offers detailed emissions data from 1950–2020 at high spatial and temporal resolutions. The study employs both bottom-up and top-down approaches for estimating emissions, integrating satellite observations to validate data and address uncertainties. Notably, emissions from China, India, and Japan have shown signs of stabilization or reduction, attributed to stricter emission control policies and technological advancements. Ohara also highlighted Japan’s effective air pollution measures and the importance of extensive observational data in corroborating emission trends. His presentation emphasized the need for improved methodologies in emission inventory development and validation across Asia, aiming to enhance policymaking and environmental management in rapidly industrializing regions. Several presenters during this session focused on innovative approaches to understand and mitigate GHG emissions and air pollution. One presenter showed how NO2 data from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on the European Sentinel-5 Precursor have been validated against ground-based observations from Pandora stations in Japan, highlighting the influence of atmospheric conditions on measurement accuracy. Another presenter described an innovative system that GISTDA used to combine satellite remote sensing data with Artificial Intelligence (AI). This system was used to monitor and analyze the concentration of fine particulate matter (PM) in the atmosphere in Thailand. (In this context fine is defined as particles with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm, or PM2.5.) These applications, which are accessible through online, cloud-based platforms and mobile applications for iOS and Android devices, allow users, including citizens, government officers, and policymakers, to access PM2.5 data in real-time through web and mobile interfaces. A project under the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific in Thailand is focused on improving air quality monitoring across the Asia–Pacific region by integrating satellite and ground-based data. At the core of this effort, the Pandora Asia Network, which includes 30 ground-based instruments measuring pollutants such as NO₂ and sulfur dioxide (SO₂), is complemented by high-resolution observations from the Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) aboard South Korea’s GEO-KOMPSAT-2B (GK-2B) satellite. The initiative also provides training sessions to strengthen regional expertise in remote sensing technologies for air quality management and develops decision support systems for evidence-based policymaking, particularly for monitoring pollution sources and transboundary effects like volcanic eruptions. Future plans include expanding the Pandora network and enhancing data integration to support local environmental management practices. PM2.5 levels in Vietnam are influenced by both local emissions and long-range pollutant transport, particularly in urban areas.The Vietnam University of Engineering and Technology, in conjunction with VNSC, continues to map and monitor PM2.5 using satellites and machine learning while addressing data quality issues that stem from missing satellite data and limited ground monitoring stations – see Figure 5. In addition to mapping and monitoring pollutants, another presentater explained that significant research is underway to address their health impacts. In Hanoi, exposure to pollutants ( e.g., PM2.5, PM10, and NO2) has led to increased rates of respiratory diseases (e.g., pneumonia, bronchitis, and asthma) among children, as well as elevated instances of cardiovascular diseases among adults. A substantial mortality burden is attributable to fine particulate matter – particularly in densely populated areas like Hanoi. Compliance with stricter air quality guidelines could potentially prevent thousands of premature deaths. For example, preventive measures enacted during the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in reduced pollution levels that were associated with a decrease in avoidable mortality rates. In response to these challenges, Vietnam has implemented air quality management policies, including national technical regulations and action plans aimed at controlling emissions and enhancing monitoring; however, current national standards still fall short of the more stringent guidelines recommended by the World Health Organization. Improved air quality standards and effective policy interventions are needed to mitigate the health risks associated with air pollution in Vietnam.
Another presenter explained how food production in Southeast Asia contributes about 40% of the region’s total GHG emissions – with rice and beef production identified as the largest contributors for plant-based and animal-based emissions, respectively. Another presentation focused on a study that examined GHG emissions from agricultural activities, which suggests that animal-based food production – particularly beef – generates substantially higher GHG emissions per kg of food produced compared to plant-based foods, such as wheat and rice. Beef has an emission intensity of about 69 kg of CO2 equivalent-per-kg, compared to 2 to 3 kg of CO2 equivalent-per-kg for plant-based foods. The study points to mitigation strategies (e.g., changing dietary patterns, improving agricultural practices) and adopting sustainable land management. Participants agreed that a comprehensive policy framework is needed to address the environmental impacts of food production and reduce GHG emissions in the agricultural sector. In another presentation, the speaker highlighted the fact that Southeast Asian countries need an advanced monitoring, reporting, and verification system to track GHG emissions – particularly within high-carbon reservoirs like rice paddies. To achieve this, cutting-edge technologies (e.g., satellite remote sensing, low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles, and Internet of Things devices) can be beneficial in creating sophisticated digital twin technology for sustainable rice production and GHG mitigation. Another presentation featured a discussion about pollution resulting from forest and peatland fires in Indonesia, which is significantly impacting air quality. Indonesia’s tropical peatlands – among the world’s largest and most diverse – face significant threats from frequent fires. Repeated burning has transformed forests into shrubs and secondary vegetation regions, with fires particularly affecting forest edges and contributing to a further retreat of intact forest areas. High-resolution data is essential to map and monitor changes in forest cover, including pollution impacts. Another speaker described a web-based Geographic Information Systems (GIS) application that has been developed to support carbon offsetting efforts in Laos – to address significant environmental challenges, e.g., deforestation and climate change. Advanced technologies (e.g., remote sensing, GIS, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems) are used to monitor land-use changes, carbon sequestration, and ecosystem health. By integrating various spatial datasets, the web GIS app enhances data collection precision, streamlines monitoring processes, and provides real-time information to stakeholders for informed decision-making. This initiative fosters collaboration among local communities, government agencies, and international partners, while emphasizing the importance of government support and international partnerships. Ultimately, the web GIS application represents a significant advancement in Laos’s commitment to environmental sustainability, economic growth, and the creation of a greener future. Session VII. Discussion Session on Synthesis The meeting concluded with a comprehensive discussion on synthesizing themes related to LUCC. The session focused on three themes: LUCC, agriculture, and air pollution. The session focused on trends and projections as well as the resulting impacts in the coming years. It also highlighted research related to these topics to inform more sustainable land use policies. A panel of experts from different Southeast Asian countries addressed these topics. A summary of the key points shared by the panelists for each theme during the discussion is provided below. LUCC Discussions This discussion focused on the challenges of balancing economic development with environmental sustainability in Southeast Asian countries, e.g., mining in Myanmar, agriculture in Vietnam, and rising land prices in Thailand. More LUCC research is needed to inform decision-making and improve land-use planning during transitions from agriculture to industrialization while ensuring food security. The panelists also discussed urban sprawl and infrastructure development along main roads in several Southeast Asian countries, highlighting the social and environmental challenges arising from uncoordinated growth. It was noted that urban infrastructure lags behind population increases, resulting in traffic congestion, pollution, and social inequality. Cambodia, for example, has increased foreign investments, which presents similar dilemmas of economic growth accompanied by significant environmental degradation. Indonesia is another example of a Southeast Asian nation facing rapid urbanization and inadequate spatial planning, leading to flooding, groundwater depletion, and pollution. These issues further highlight the need for integrated satellite monitoring to inform land-use policies. Finally, recognizing the importance of public infrastructure in growth management, it was reported that the Thai government is already using technology to manage urban development alongside green spaces. Panelists agreed that LUCC research is critical for guiding policymakers toward sustainable land-use practices – emphasizing the necessity for improved communication between researchers and policymakers. While the integration of technologies (e.g., GIS and remote sensing) is beginning to influence policy decisions, room for improvement remains. In summary, the discussions stressed the importance of better planning, technology integration, and policy-informed research to reconcile economic growth with sustainability. Participants also highlighted the need to engage policymakers, non-government organizations, and the private sector in using scientific evidence for sustainable development. Capacity building in Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar, where GIS and remote sensing technologies are still developing, is crucial. Community involvement is essential for translating research findings into actionable policies to address real-world challenges and social equity. Agriculture Discussions These discussions explored the intricate relationships between agricultural practices, economic growth, and environmental sustainability in Southeast Asia. As an example, despite national policies to manage the land transition in Vietnam, rapid conversions from forest to agricultural land and further to residential and industrial continue. While it is recognized that strict land management plans may hinder future adaptability, further regulation is needed. These rapid shifts in land use have increased land for economic development – especially in industrial and residential sectors – and contribute to environmental degradation, e.g., pollution and soil erosion. In Thailand, land is distributed among agriculture (50%), forest (30%), and urban (20%) areas. Despite a long history of agricultural practices, Vietnam faces new challenges from climate change and extreme weather. Thailand, meanwhile, is exploring carbon credits to incentivize sustainable farming practices – although this requires significant investment and time. The nation is well-equipped with a robust water supply system, and ongoing efforts to enhance crop yields on Vietnam’s Mekong Delta, salinity levels, and flooding intensity have increased as a result of the rise in incidents of extreme weather, prompting advancements in rice farming mechanization to be implemented that are modeled after practices that have been successfully used in the Philippines. Despite these advances, issues (e.g., over-application of rice seeds) remain. The dominant land cover type in Malaysia is tropical rainforest, although agriculture – particularly oil palm plantations – also plays a significant role in land use. While stable, it shares environmental concerns with Indonesia. The country is integrating solar energy initiatives, placing solar panels on former agricultural lands and recreational areas, which raises coastal environmental concerns. In Taiwan, substantial land use changes have stemmed from solar panel installations to support green energy goals but have led to increased temperatures and altered wind patterns. All panelists agreed that remote sensing technologies are vital to inform agricultural policy across the region. They emphasized the need to transition from academic research to actionable insights that directly inform policy. Panelists also discussed the challenge of securing funding for actionable research – underlining the importance of recognizing the transition required for research to inform operational use. Some countries (e.g., Thailand) have established operational crop monitoring systems, while others (e.g., Vietnam) primarily depend on research projects. Despite progress in Malaysia’s monitoring of oil palm plantations, a comprehensive operational monitoring system is still lacking in many areas. The participants concluded that increased efforts are needed to promote the wider adoption of remote sensing technologies for agricultural and environmental monitoring, with emphasis on developing operational systems that can be integrated into policy and decision-making processes. Air Pollution Discussions The discussion on air pollution focused on various sources in Southeast Asia, which included both local and transboundary factors. Panelists highlighted that motor vehicles, industrial activities, and power plants are major contributors to pollutants, such as PM2.5, NO2, ozone (O3), and carbon monoxide (CO). Forest fires in Indonesia – particularly from South Sumatra and Riau provinces – are significantly impacting neighboring countries, e.g., Malaysia. A study found that most PM2.5 pollution in Kuala Lumpur originates from Indonesia. During the COVID-19 pandemic, pollution levels dropped sharply due to reduced economic activity; however, data from 2018–2023 shows that PM2.5 levels have returned to pre-pandemic conditions. The Indonesian government is actively working to reduce deforestation and emissions, aiming for a 29% reduction by 2030. Indonesia is also participating in carbon markets and receiving international payments for emission reductions. Indonesia’s emissions also stem from energy production, industrial activities, and land-use changes, including peat fires. The Indonesian government reports anthropogenic sources – particularly from the energy sector and industrial activities, forest and peat fires, waste, and agriculture – continue to escalate. While Indonesia is addressing these issues, growing population and energy demands continue to drive pollution levels higher. Vietnam and Laos are facing similar challenges related to air pollution – particularly from agricultural residue burning. Both governments are working on expanding air quality monitoring, regulating waste burning, and developing policies to mitigate pollution. Vietnam has been developing provincial air quality management plans and expanding its monitoring network. Laos has seen increased awareness of pollution, accompanied by government measures aimed at restricting burning and improving waste management practices. The panelists agreed that collaborative efforts for regional cooperation are essential to address air pollution. This will require collaboration in research and data sharing to inform policy decisions. There is a growing interest in leveraging satellite technology and modeling approaches to enhance air quality forecasting and management. To ensure that research translates into effective policy, communication of scientific findings to policymakers is essential – particularly by clearly communicating complex research concepts in accessible formats. All panelists agreed on the importance of improving governance, transparency, and scientific communication to better translate research into policy actions, highlighting collaborations with international organizations – including NASA – to address air quality issues. While significant challenges related to air pollution persist in Southeast Asia, noteworthy efforts are underway to improve awareness, research, and collaborative governance aimed at enhancing air quality and reducing emissions. Conclusion The LCLUC–SARI Synthesis meeting fostered collaboration among researchers and provided valuable updates on recent developments in LUCC research, exchange of ideas, integration of new data products, and discussions on emerging science directions. This structured dialogue (particularly the discussions in each session) helped the attendees identify priorities and needs within the LUCC community. All panelists and meeting participants commended the SARI leadership for their proactive role in facilitating collaborations and discussions that promote capacity-building activities across the region. SARI activities have significantly contributed to enhancing the collective ability of countries in South and Southeast Asia to address pressing environmental challenges. The meeting participants emphasized the importance of maintaining and expanding these collaborative efforts, which are crucial for fostering partnerships among governments, research institutions, and local communities. They urged SARI to continue organizing workshops, training sessions, and knowledge-sharing platforms that can equip stakeholders with the necessary skills and resources to tackle environmental issues such as air pollution, deforestation, climate change, and sustainable land management. Krishna VadrevuNASA’s Marshall Space Flight Centerkrishna.p.vadrevu@nasa.gov Vu TuanVietnam National Science Center, Vietnamvatuan@vnsc.org.vn Than NguyenVietnam National University Engineering and Technology, Vietnamthanhntn@vnu.edu.vn Son NghiemJet Propulsion Laboratoryson.v.nghiem@jpl.nasa.gov Tsuneo MatsunagaNational Institute of Environmental Studies, Japanmatsunag@nies.go.jp Garik GutmanNASA Headquartersggutman@nasa.gov Christopher JusticeUniversity of Maryland College Parkcjustice@umd.edu
TIMEhas named you one of the 100 most influential climate leaders in business. Why are you so motivated to integrate climate and nature-related risks into exercising the mandate of central banks and supervisors?
Climate, nature and the economy are deeply interconnected and interdependent. The twin climate and nature crises are sources of financial risk. For central banks and supervisors, addressing these issues is therefore neither an option nor a political choice – it is an obligation that falls squarely within our mandate. If central bankers and supervisors want to effectively pursue their tasks of maintaining price stability and keeping the banking sector safe, they need to be mindful of the environment in which they operate. This means considering the impact of the climate and nature crises on inflation and banks’ safety and soundness.
Is the energy transition in Europe progressing too slowly? If so, why?
Europe has made significant progress in its energy transition, but if it wants to reach the agreed target, it needs to remain determined and avoid undermining what has been achieved so far. The facts are that current policies put Europe on a 3.1°C warming trajectory over the course of the century, which is too far from the 1.5°C target.[1] The economic risks associated with delayed action are stark: a late, abrupt transition away from fossil fuels would weaken the economy and increase losses for the financial system, making the path to net zero far more costly.[2] In fact, the United Nations has warned that climate mitigation must increase sixfold globally to stay on track for the Paris Agreement.[3] These figures underscore the urgent need for Europe not to relent in its transition efforts if it wants to avoid severe economic and environmental consequences.
In a previous study, you demonstrated that most European companies and banks face significant financial risks when natural ecosystems collapse due to climate change and biodiversity loss. What are examples of these financial risks? What is the most important recommendation in the report?
The interdependencies between banks, businesses and nature lead to financial risks. Damage to ecosystems through nature degradation and biodiversity loss poses a significant threat to the economic viability of companies and, by extension, to the financial stability of banks that grant them loans. The study you mention showed that, in the euro area, 72% of non-financial corporations rely heavily on at least one ecosystem service, while 75% of corporate bank loans – approximately €3.24 trillion – are tied to these ecosystem-dependent borrowers.[4] Key ecosystem services such as surface and ground water, together with mass stabilisation[5] and erosion control, are particularly critical, exposing banks to credit risks through affected firms.
One of the most important lessons from the report is the recognition that biodiversity loss is both an economic and financial risk. A second lesson is that climate and biodiversity are, to a large extent, two sides of the same coin, and they cannot be addressed in isolation. Lastly, the report shows that we are still missing the data needed to better take into account the risks stemming from nature loss. To address this, we need to improve the way we collect and organise information about nature.
What is the impact of climate change on inflation?
The economic impacts of climate change and extreme weather events are impossible to ignore. Following 2023’s record-breaking temperatures, 2024 became the warmest year on record globally, reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.[6] Europe, the fastest-warming continent, saw temperatures soar to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels in 2024. The physical impacts of climate change – such as more frequent and severe weather events like floods, droughts, and city and forest fires – disrupt supply chains, reduce agricultural yields and drive up food prices. For example, an interdisciplinary study by ECB economists and climate scientists showed that the 2022 heatwave in Europe added 0.8 percentage points to euro area food price inflation.[7]
The green transition will also bring about structural economic changes, which could influence inflation. Although the overall impact of the green transition remains very uncertain and may vary over time, we need to account for it to effectively deliver on our mandate. This is why we are increasingly incorporating green transition policies, such as climate-related fiscal policies or assumptions on carbon pricing under the EU Emissions Trading System 2, into our macroeconomic analyses.[8]
To what extent do oil and gas reserves, as stranded assets – losing their value due to the necessity of staying within the 1.5°C climate goal – pose an economic risk?
Generally, stranded assets pose greater economic and financial risks to the extent that industries and banks are not prepared. As the economy moves towards meeting climate goals, industries need to adjust how they operate. And since most companies in the EU with high-emitting production facilities rely on bank financing, this also has a significant impact on banks’ balance sheets. Last year, we released a study on the banking sector’s alignment with EU climate objectives, where we found that 90% of analysed banks faced elevated transition risks due to substantial misalignment with the Paris Agreement.[9] The biggest risk stems from exposures to companies in the energy sector that are lagging behind in phasing out high-carbon production processes and are slow to scale up renewable energy production.[10]
To what extent does the ECB incorporate climate-related risks into its monetary policy?
The ECB has taken significant steps to integrate climate-related risks into its monetary policy framework. It has reduced the carbon footprint of the Eurosystem’s corporate bond holdings and expanded annual climate disclosures to cover over 99% of assets held for monetary policy purposes. We’re also making progress in embedding climate considerations in our modelling and forecasting. Through exercises such as climate stress tests, we’ve deepened our understanding of the impact of the green transition and the physical impacts of the climate crisis. To improve data availability, which is key if we want to keep incorporating climate and nature risks, the ECB has developed climate-related statistical indicators.
How does the ECB ensure that the financial sector properly manages the risks associated with climate change?
Five years on from the publication of the ECB Guide on C&E risks in 2020, banks have made significant progress in managing climate-related and environmental (C&E) risk. Initially, fewer than 25% of banks had worked on climate-related risk management, and in 2021 a self-assessment conducted by the banks revealed that 90% of their practices fell short of our expectations.
Following thorough assessments in 2022, we came to the conclusion that the glass was filling up, but that it wasn’t yet half full. Based on what the banks themselves considered reasonable when we first started discussing C&E risk management with them, we set interim deadlines resulting in three milestones: by March 2023 banks were expected to draw up adequate materiality assessments; by December 2023 they needed to integrate C&E risks into their governance, strategy and risk management; and by the end of 2024 they were expected to comply with the full scope of ECB expectations on C&E risk.
Encouragingly, most banks met the targets set by the 2023 deadlines, and frameworks for climate and nature-related risks are now broadly in place. However, a few banks are still lagging behind and could face potential penalties. For the third and final deadline, which just passed at the end of 2024, we are proceeding with our compliance assessments in the same way as for the two previous deadlines.
What specific sustainability measure will you personally advocate for within the ECB in 2025?
In 2025 we will closely monitor progress and, where necessary, use all the tools at our disposal to ensure the banking sector is resilient in the face of the unfolding climate and nature crises. As part of the ECB’s multi-year agenda for banking supervision, we will make sure that the banks we supervise directly – whose assets total over €26 trillion – fully account for climate and nature-related risks in their strategies and risk management. Ensuring banks comply with the new regulatory requirement to develop transition plans to prepare for the risks and potential changes in their business models associated with the green transition is particularly high on the agenda.
What are your thoughts on Mario Draghi’s report, particularly his call for further financial and economic integration within the EU through, for example, establishing a capital markets union?This plan aims to create a single integrated capital market in the EU, allowing investments and savings to flow more freely across borders.
From an ECB perspective, we have always been supportive of a deeper capital markets union (CMU). The renewed political momentum we have seen recently in furthering CMU – or a savings and investment union – has come at a crucial time. In fact, the bulk of the additional financing needed for the green transition has to come from the private sector.[11]
The European Commission estimates that the EU needs an extra €477 billion (equivalent to 3.4% of GDP in 2023) of green investment per year by 2030. This number increases to €620 billion when considering the EU’s broader environmental ambitions. While banks are expected to make an important contribution, expanding and integrating capital markets is essential for directing the flow of funds towards green innovation. The public sector also has a key role to play in mobilising private green investment by crowding in private investment through, for example, lowering borrowers’ financing costs or de-risking green investment activities.
Sustainable energy technologies and electricity infrastructure have higher investment costs than fossil fuel technologies. As a result, high interest rates slow the energy transition, despite its potential to help combat inflation. Recent high inflation was partly driven by high fossil energy prices. Could a lower interest rate for investments in sustainable energy accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels?
The ECB’s primary objective is to maintain price stability, and this will always remain the cornerstone of our actions. But we also have a secondary objective, which requires us to support the general economic policies in the EU, including contributing to a high level of protection and improvement of the quality of the environment.[12] Within this mandate, accounting for the effects of climate and nature-related events is part and parcel of our tasks. Importantly, any direct incentives and tools must align with our monetary policy stance. In the specific case you mention, further challenges – such as data coverage and quality, defining appropriate green targeting criteria and establishing robust verification processes – still exist. Some of these issues require agreement on a European level, where we are dependent on legislation.
Having said that, the ECB’s euro area bank lending survey tells us that European banks are already offering more favourable lending conditions to green firms or firms in transition.[13] In addition, governments can support green projects in a more targeted and effective way by offering more favourable lending through for instance public development banks. Despite this, the ECB still actively monitors regulatory developments.
Are you optimistic about the energy transition in Europe?
I am generally an optimistic person. In this case, the progress made speaks for itself: the share of renewables in the EU’s final energy use more than doubled between 2005 and 2023.[14] And last year, nearly half of the EU’s electricity was powered by renewables.[15] Much-needed investment in climate change mitigation has also grown, increasing by 42% between 2005 and 2022.[16]
We know progress is possible, but we now need to go further and faster. Our research shows that a quicker transition will lower costs – being ready can offer a competitive advantage. Consumer preferences are already changing and these will support the transition. In that respect, we welcome the European Commission’s focus on both decarbonisation and competitiveness.
Last but not least, through my involvement with the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), which I co-founded and of which I was the first Chair, I’ve also witnessed first-hand the impact a committed group of central banks and supervisors working towards a common goal can have. The NGFS has grown from its original eight members to 143 members today. This “coalition of the committed” is prepared to help future-proof the economy and the banking sector. Regardless of the political winds that are blowing, the reality of the climate and nature crises doesn’t change. And as most Europeans know, it is a reality we must face head on.
How sustainably do you live and travel?
We have a fully electric car, and as a proud Dutchman, I love to ride my bike.
European Commission Press release Brussels, 20 Feb 2025 During the first-ever visit of a European Commission President to the Caribbean, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed Europe’s commitment to deepening its relations and partnership with the region.
At the invitation of Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Chair, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, President von der Leyen met the 15 leaders of the Caribbean Community during the 48th Regular Meeting of the CARICOM. The visit aims at further strengthening the EU’s presence in the region and lay the groundwork for the EU-CELAC Summit, planned for later this year.
In a new era of harsh geostrategic competition, Europe stands for openness, partnership and outreach. The visit took place in the context of the Commission’s effort to build new partnerships and strengthen old ones, which includes recent agreements with Mercosur, Mexico and Malaysia.
President von der Leyen said: “Europe and the Caribbean may be an ocean apart, but we are close allies. We share so many interests and values, including our mutual support for Ukraine. Europe stands with the Caribbean countries in the fight against climate change, protecting nature and biodiversity, strengthening trade, and boosting investments through Global Gateway. Europe wants to be a fair and trusted partner for all regions of the world that want to work with us.”
President von der Leyen also discussed with Caribbean partners the situation in Haiti. She underlined the EU’s commitment to Haiti’s recovery and security and its support to CARICOM efforts in this regard. In this context, a package of €19.5 million EU support was announced during the visit. This new financial support will complement ongoing efforts to deliver essential services to Haitians as well as support the country’s macroeconomic stability.
President von der Leyen highlighted the EU’s commitment to supporting Caribbean partners in fighting climate change and its devastating impact on the islands. As the leading provider of climate finance, the EU is determined to work together on innovative financing, while promoting private sector investments.
At global level, the EU and the Caribbean are stepping up their energy partnership following the launch of the Global Energy Transition Forum by President von der Leyen in Davos last month. She welcomed the 8 countries (Barbados, Guyana, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica)* that joined the forum during the summit, committing to action to meet the global targets of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.
During the visit, President von der Leyen underscored the reliability of the EU as a trade and investment partner to the region working together on mutually beneficial projects. President von der Leyen launched several projects under Europe’s Global Gateway strategy on renewable energy, digital transformation, pharmaceutical production and economic resilience. The projects will invest in a stronger, greener and better connected Caribbean.
Key Global Gateway projects in the Caribbean
Expanding Renewable Energy: Global Gateway energy projects are underway in 13 Caribbean countries, leveraging European expertise, technology, and financing tools. In this context, President von der Leyen and Prime Minister Mottley announced a €160 million green hydrogen storage project by the French company HDF Energy, the first of its kind in the Caribbean.
Advancing the Digital Agenda: The EU and the Caribbean are strengthening their digital partnership with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Caribbean and the European satellite company Hispasat during the CARICOM meeting. It will improve the Caribbean’s satellite internet connectivity and sovereignty within the framework of the EU–LAC Digital Alliance. As part of this initiative, the EU and Spain will provide a €10 million grant to support satellite broadband expansion and promote digital inclusion across the region.
Developing Local Pharmaceutical Production: The EU’s €8.9 million investment to promote local production and regulatory alignment with European standards was also taken forward in the framework of the CARICOM meeting. A joint declaration to cooperate on twinning Caribbean and EU regulatory agencies, capacity-building initiatives, and research collaborations was signed during the meeting. Additionally, the first investment from a European pharmaceutical company, Biomed X in Barbados, will support research and manufacturing, further reinforcing the region’s health resilience.
Supporting Post-Hurricane Reconstruction: As part of the assistance given to Grenada in rebuilding Carriacou and Petite Martinique after Hurricane Beryl, the EU is supporting the islands to become 100% powered by renewable energy. This initiative will serve as a global model for small islands striving for climate resilience.
Combating the Sargassum Challenge: The EU, in collaboration with regional partners, is transforming the environmental and economic challenge of sargassum seaweed into an opportunity for sustainable development. Through an ongoing €386 million Global Gateway initiative, the EU is working with financial institutions such as the European Investment Bank and the private sector to develop sustainable value chains for sargassum, particularly in Grenada.
Europe and the Caribbean may be an ocean apart, but we are close allies. We share so many interests and values, including our mutual support for Ukraine. Europe stands with the Caribbean countries in the fight against climate change, protecting nature and biodiversity, strengthening trade, and boosting investments through Global Gateway. Europe wants to be a fair and trusted partner for all regions of the world that want to work with us.
Trading suits, ties and debates for DJ turntables, bright traditional Indigenous garb and ancient instruments, three performers – an anthropologist, an R&B singer and a genre-defying artist – showcased their music and messages at the Stand Up for Social Justice event to celebrate the World Day of Social Justice, marked annually on 20 February.
The world needs more diverse platforms like the UN “so that transculturality can exist”, said Brisa Flow, a Chilean-born Mapuche artist who got her first break in rap battles in Brazil, following her intense musical performance.
“We need more empathy and to listen more to Indigenous Peoples in order to better understand how to take care of our territories that need care, not just in terms of water, food and land, but also our children and our elders,” said the São Paulo-based singer, rocking a green marble-printed manicure.
“We need to be in spaces where everything we speak about is not just a utopia, where hope, which exists, can be heard and considered.”
Calls for change around the world
Ms. Flow joined French-speaking Geneva-born R&B revelation Ocevne (pronounced Océane) and anthropologist-cum-poet Idjahure Terena in delivering powerful music and personal messages inspired by social justice while helping to link local realities to issues of a global scale.
Echoing the Day’s 2025 theme Strengthening a Just Transition for a Sustainable Future, the event was co-organised by UNRISD, an independent UN research institute focusing on development issues, and Antigel, a Geneva-based music festival designed to make culture more accessible.
The messages from the young people on stage did just that, with electrifying performances and calls for change around the world.
For Ocevne, 28, the message was about equality.
“The simplest way I could define it is simply the right to equal opportunities,” she said. “No matter your background, where you come from, who you are, your gender, everything, we all have the right to that opportunity.”
Ocevne warming up the room at the Stand Up for Social Justice event.
‘No climate justice without social justice’
Climate justice was another recurring theme throughout the event, an issue highlighted by Mr. Terena, a doctoral student in social anthropology at the University of São Paulo and poet who spends much of his time defending the rights of his community and others.
“There is no climate justice without social justice,” he told the audience. “We know that standing forests are the simplest and most efficient solution for fighting global warming.”
The young researcher slammed the impact of mining companies and agribusinesses on his ancestral land that belongs to the Terena people of Brazil in the Pantanal region of Mato Grosso do Sul.
“This is not just a territorial issue, but a matter of physical and cultural survival for our peoples and for humanity as indigenous lands represent the most important areas of biodiversity,” he said, inviting the audience to fight for a “common, diverse living world”.
Idjahure Terena playing the japurutu flute with his father-in-law Francisco Baniwa in Brazil.
‘The future is going to be very hot’
Indeed, “the future is going to be very hot,” said Ms. Flow, adding that “it is already very hot in Brazil, and this is urgent for us because without water, we cannot live, and without food, [we cannot] either.”
Advocating for issues affecting indigenous communities, including the burning impacts of climate change on the natural resources of her home country, she said collectively not enough is getting done.
“We need more communication and more exchanges. By exchanges, I mean listening, speaking, listening, speaking and thinking about new ways of living well so that we can keep heading into the future.”
Brazilian federal deputy Célia Xakriabá (right) performs with artist Brisa Flow at the Stand Up for Social Justice concert.
Amplifying marginalised voices
The event is the brainchild of the UN Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD) Head of communications chief Karima Cherif, who wanted to bridge art and research through the initiative.
She says her institute works with scholars from the global South to ensure that the voices and expertise of minorities are heard.
“We’re giving voices to the marginalised and the youth,” explained Ms. Cherif, who sees art as a way to “translate what we do in a language that can touch hearts”.
‘Never give up’
Thuy-San Dinh, who heads Antigel, echoed her vision and encouraged the young audience to pursue their goals, recalling when she co-created the annual event 15 years ago.
“You have to believe in your ideas and never give up,” Ms. Dinh said.
Melanie Rouquier, who created SHAP SHAP, a non-profit that fights global inequality and discrimination through cultural projects, told several activists in the room that each of their actions showed citizen engagement was not a lost cause.
Brisa Flow playing a traditional instrument at the Stand Up for Social Justice concert in Geneva in February 2025.
Connecting generations
For Aryan Yasin, a designer from Geneva who founded a cultural non-profit supporting disadvantaged youth, the show was an opportunity for cross-pollination and broadening his network by connecting with UN staff.
The exceptional venue “is not a place where you would necessarily see young people”, he said. “But, that actually allows us to create an intergenerational connection, with people who are more experienced, more established,” he added.
After the show, management student Ludivine said she was mesmerised by the experience. Putting on a concert with one of her favourite artists there to denounce inequalities “makes sense… because at the UN, people get together to talk about inequalities around the world.”
Ms. Flow (right) at a protest by the Guarani people of Brazil.
What is social justice?
After the event ended, doctoral students Beatrice and Thomas shared what the concept of social justice, which can seem quite abstract, meant to them.
“It’s about recognising and taking differences into account while ensuring that everyone has the same access” to the same opportunities, said Beatrice, from Italy, who studies at École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne.
“That may mean that some people will need more support, while others may not need as much, but have different needs.”
Thomas offered a more societal vision of the idea.
“For me, it’s something that is both individual and collective – something that must be built as a society. It is entirely dependent on the structures we have put in place, but it also relies on everything that is local.”
Ahead of the concert, Tatiana Valovaya, Director-General of the UN Office at Geneva set the tone in her opening remarks in the Human Rights and Civilisation Room.
“This room sees a lot of very important and challenging negotiations,” she told the audience. “But, today we open this room to everyone.”
Geneva Mayor Christina Kitsos, whose term is guided by the motto “what connects us”, reminded the youthful audience of the UN’s fundamental role despite the worrying rise of “desire to undermine all the work [that has been done] around humanitarian aid and human rights”.
“We need to be united, strong and truly hopeful and courageous to ensure that we stay the course, that we remain a beacon in this world in turmoil,” she said.
Question for written answer E-000643/2025 to the Commission Rule 144 César Luena (S&D)
According to the UN’s 2024 Emissions Gap Report[1], most countries are still far from meeting the targets set out in the Paris Agreement, which means that the 2035 climate commitments need to take a ‘quantum leap in ambition’ to give the world any chance of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C.
Despite the dire situation, only 10 of the 195 countries that are part of the Paris Agreement have met the UN’s 10 February deadline to submit their 2035 climate commitments.
In view of the above:
1.Why has the Commission not met its obligation to submit the EU’s new nationally determined contribution?
2.When will it do so?
3.Given that the first global stocktake presented at COP28 urges the Parties to ensure that their new nationally determined contributions go further than their previous ones and establish emission reduction commitments for 2035 that are as ambitious as possible, how will the Commission reflect this commitment in EU legislation?
Submitted: 12.2.2025
[1] UNEP, 15th edition of its annual emissions gap report
Question for written answer E-000644/2025 to the Commission Rule 144 César Luena (S&D)
A study by Nature Climate Change[1] has revealed significant changes in the CO2 balance of the arctic-boreal zone between 2001 and 2020. While the region in general remains a carbon sink, more than 30 % of the region is a net source of CO2 and the trends are alarming. Tundra regions may have already started to operate on average as CO2 sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. What is more, when fire emissions are factored in, the zone’s growing sink is no longer statistically significant and the permafrost region becomes CO2 neutral.
1.Taking account of the crucial role played by forest fires, what specific measures is the Commission planning to improve fire prevention and management in European boreal regions?
2.Given the importance of permafrost in carbon storage, and with a view to understanding and mitigating the impacts of permafrost melting on CO2 emissions, what research and monitoring initiatives does the Commission plan to support?
3.How does the Commission intend to address these changes in its international cooperation policies, particularly in cooperation with countries with territory in the arctic and boreal region?
TIMEhas named you one of the 100 most influential climate leaders in business. Why are you so motivated to integrate climate and nature-related risks into exercising the mandate of central banks and supervisors?
Climate, nature and the economy are deeply interconnected and interdependent. The twin climate and nature crises are sources of financial risk. For central banks and supervisors, addressing these issues is therefore neither an option nor a political choice – it is an obligation that falls squarely within our mandate. If central bankers and supervisors want to effectively pursue their tasks of maintaining price stability and keeping the banking sector safe, they need to be mindful of the environment in which they operate. This means considering the impact of the climate and nature crises on inflation and banks’ safety and soundness.
Is the energy transition in Europe progressing too slowly? If so, why?
Europe has made significant progress in its energy transition, but if it wants to reach the agreed target, it needs to remain determined and avoid undermining what has been achieved so far. The facts are that current policies put Europe on a 3.1°C warming trajectory over the course of the century, which is too far from the 1.5°C target.[1] The economic risks associated with delayed action are stark: a late, abrupt transition away from fossil fuels would weaken the economy and increase losses for the financial system, making the path to net zero far more costly.[2] In fact, the United Nations has warned that climate mitigation must increase sixfold globally to stay on track for the Paris Agreement.[3] These figures underscore the urgent need for Europe not to relent in its transition efforts if it wants to avoid severe economic and environmental consequences.
In a previous study, you demonstrated that most European companies and banks face significant financial risks when natural ecosystems collapse due to climate change and biodiversity loss. What are examples of these financial risks? What is the most important recommendation in the report?
The interdependencies between banks, businesses and nature lead to financial risks. Damage to ecosystems through nature degradation and biodiversity loss poses a significant threat to the economic viability of companies and, by extension, to the financial stability of banks that grant them loans. The study you mention showed that, in the euro area, 72% of non-financial corporations rely heavily on at least one ecosystem service, while 75% of corporate bank loans – approximately €3.24 trillion – are tied to these ecosystem-dependent borrowers.[4] Key ecosystem services such as surface and ground water, together with mass stabilisation[5] and erosion control, are particularly critical, exposing banks to credit risks through affected firms.
One of the most important lessons from the report is the recognition that biodiversity loss is both an economic and financial risk. A second lesson is that climate and biodiversity are, to a large extent, two sides of the same coin, and they cannot be addressed in isolation. Lastly, the report shows that we are still missing the data needed to better take into account the risks stemming from nature loss. To address this, we need to improve the way we collect and organise information about nature.
What is the impact of climate change on inflation?
The economic impacts of climate change and extreme weather events are impossible to ignore. Following 2023’s record-breaking temperatures, 2024 became the warmest year on record globally, reaching 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.[6] Europe, the fastest-warming continent, saw temperatures soar to 2.9°C above pre-industrial levels in 2024. The physical impacts of climate change – such as more frequent and severe weather events like floods, droughts, and city and forest fires – disrupt supply chains, reduce agricultural yields and drive up food prices. For example, an interdisciplinary study by ECB economists and climate scientists showed that the 2022 heatwave in Europe added 0.8 percentage points to euro area food price inflation.[7]
The green transition will also bring about structural economic changes, which could influence inflation. Although the overall impact of the green transition remains very uncertain and may vary over time, we need to account for it to effectively deliver on our mandate. This is why we are increasingly incorporating green transition policies, such as climate-related fiscal policies or assumptions on carbon pricing under the EU Emissions Trading System 2, into our macroeconomic analyses.[8]
To what extent do oil and gas reserves, as stranded assets – losing their value due to the necessity of staying within the 1.5°C climate goal – pose an economic risk?
Generally, stranded assets pose greater economic and financial risks to the extent that industries and banks are not prepared. As the economy moves towards meeting climate goals, industries need to adjust how they operate. And since most companies in the EU with high-emitting production facilities rely on bank financing, this also has a significant impact on banks’ balance sheets. Last year, we released a study on the banking sector’s alignment with EU climate objectives, where we found that 90% of analysed banks faced elevated transition risks due to substantial misalignment with the Paris Agreement.[9] The biggest risk stems from exposures to companies in the energy sector that are lagging behind in phasing out high-carbon production processes and are slow to scale up renewable energy production.[10]
To what extent does the ECB incorporate climate-related risks into its monetary policy?
The ECB has taken significant steps to integrate climate-related risks into its monetary policy framework. It has reduced the carbon footprint of the Eurosystem’s corporate bond holdings and expanded annual climate disclosures to cover over 99% of assets held for monetary policy purposes. We’re also making progress in embedding climate considerations in our modelling and forecasting. Through exercises such as climate stress tests, we’ve deepened our understanding of the impact of the green transition and the physical impacts of the climate crisis. To improve data availability, which is key if we want to keep incorporating climate and nature risks, the ECB has developed climate-related statistical indicators.
How does the ECB ensure that the financial sector properly manages the risks associated with climate change?
Five years on from the publication of the ECB Guide on C&E risks in 2020, banks have made significant progress in managing climate-related and environmental (C&E) risk. Initially, fewer than 25% of banks had worked on climate-related risk management, and in 2021 a self-assessment conducted by the banks revealed that 90% of their practices fell short of our expectations.
Following thorough assessments in 2022, we came to the conclusion that the glass was filling up, but that it wasn’t yet half full. Based on what the banks themselves considered reasonable when we first started discussing C&E risk management with them, we set interim deadlines resulting in three milestones: by March 2023 banks were expected to draw up adequate materiality assessments; by December 2023 they needed to integrate C&E risks into their governance, strategy and risk management; and by the end of 2024 they were expected to comply with the full scope of ECB expectations on C&E risk.
Encouragingly, most banks met the targets set by the 2023 deadlines, and frameworks for climate and nature-related risks are now broadly in place. However, a few banks are still lagging behind and could face potential penalties. For the third and final deadline, which just passed at the end of 2024, we are proceeding with our compliance assessments in the same way as for the two previous deadlines.
What specific sustainability measure will you personally advocate for within the ECB in 2025?
In 2025 we will closely monitor progress and, where necessary, use all the tools at our disposal to ensure the banking sector is resilient in the face of the unfolding climate and nature crises. As part of the ECB’s multi-year agenda for banking supervision, we will make sure that the banks we supervise directly – whose assets total over €26 trillion – fully account for climate and nature-related risks in their strategies and risk management. Ensuring banks comply with the new regulatory requirement to develop transition plans to prepare for the risks and potential changes in their business models associated with the green transition is particularly high on the agenda.
What are your thoughts on Mario Draghi’s report, particularly his call for further financial and economic integration within the EU through, for example, establishing a capital markets union?This plan aims to create a single integrated capital market in the EU, allowing investments and savings to flow more freely across borders.
From an ECB perspective, we have always been supportive of a deeper capital markets union (CMU). The renewed political momentum we have seen recently in furthering CMU – or a savings and investment union – has come at a crucial time. In fact, the bulk of the additional financing needed for the green transition has to come from the private sector.[11]
The European Commission estimates that the EU needs an extra €477 billion (equivalent to 3.4% of GDP in 2023) of green investment per year by 2030. This number increases to €620 billion when considering the EU’s broader environmental ambitions. While banks are expected to make an important contribution, expanding and integrating capital markets is essential for directing the flow of funds towards green innovation. The public sector also has a key role to play in mobilising private green investment by crowding in private investment through, for example, lowering borrowers’ financing costs or de-risking green investment activities.
Sustainable energy technologies and electricity infrastructure have higher investment costs than fossil fuel technologies. As a result, high interest rates slow the energy transition, despite its potential to help combat inflation. Recent high inflation was partly driven by high fossil energy prices. Could a lower interest rate for investments in sustainable energy accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels?
The ECB’s primary objective is to maintain price stability, and this will always remain the cornerstone of our actions. But we also have a secondary objective, which requires us to support the general economic policies in the EU, including contributing to a high level of protection and improvement of the quality of the environment.[12] Within this mandate, accounting for the effects of climate and nature-related events is part and parcel of our tasks. Importantly, any direct incentives and tools must align with our monetary policy stance. In the specific case you mention, further challenges – such as data coverage and quality, defining appropriate green targeting criteria and establishing robust verification processes – still exist. Some of these issues require agreement on a European level, where we are dependent on legislation.
Having said that, the ECB’s euro area bank lending survey tells us that European banks are already offering more favourable lending conditions to green firms or firms in transition.[13] In addition, governments can support green projects in a more targeted and effective way by offering more favourable lending through for instance public development banks. Despite this, the ECB still actively monitors regulatory developments.
Are you optimistic about the energy transition in Europe?
I am generally an optimistic person. In this case, the progress made speaks for itself: the share of renewables in the EU’s final energy use more than doubled between 2005 and 2023.[14] And last year, nearly half of the EU’s electricity was powered by renewables.[15] Much-needed investment in climate change mitigation has also grown, increasing by 42% between 2005 and 2022.[16]
We know progress is possible, but we now need to go further and faster. Our research shows that a quicker transition will lower costs – being ready can offer a competitive advantage. Consumer preferences are already changing and these will support the transition. In that respect, we welcome the European Commission’s focus on both decarbonisation and competitiveness.
Last but not least, through my involvement with the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), which I co-founded and of which I was the first Chair, I’ve also witnessed first-hand the impact a committed group of central banks and supervisors working towards a common goal can have. The NGFS has grown from its original eight members to 143 members today. This “coalition of the committed” is prepared to help future-proof the economy and the banking sector. Regardless of the political winds that are blowing, the reality of the climate and nature crises doesn’t change. And as most Europeans know, it is a reality we must face head on.
How sustainably do you live and travel?
We have a fully electric car, and as a proud Dutchman, I love to ride my bike.
Investments ensures safe and reliable water supply and wastewater management, addressing climate change challenges, while also improving the protection of the Danube
EIB financing will improve efficiency of city’s water company Bratislavská vodárenská spoločnosť (BVS) by reducing its energy costs with further utilization of green fuel sources.
This is the first direct cooperation between EIB and a municipal company in Bratislava to boost investments in the water sector.
European Investment Bank (EIB), one of the world’s largest multilateral investors in the water sector, is providing EUR 50 million in Bratislava municipal water utility company Bratislavská vodárenská spoločnosť (BVS) for necessary upgrades and extensions of its water supply and wastewater infrastructure. The financing will help aligning Bratislava water and wastewater management with EU regulations, ensuring the highest quality of drinking water in the city and also allow the BVS to increase utilization of green, biomass energy sources.
The modernization programme aims to increase the reliability of water supply for nearly half a million residents and businesses in Bratislava, Slovakia`s main business hub. It also fosters environmental responsibility, by making the city more resilient to adverse effects of climate change and allows BVS to further increase its efficiency and reduce its energy costs.
“EIB cooperation with BVS means people and businesses in Bratislava can look forward to cleaner water, efficient wastewater management and eco-friendly practices that enhance the city’s quality of life,” said EIB Vice-President Kyriacos Kakouris. “Modern water management is crucial to ensuring the strength and sustainability of urban centres across the EU including Bratislava.”
“The cooperation approval followed thorough preparation and extensive communication with the EIB. This financing is significantly more cost-effective for us compared to commercial banks. This partnership with BVS is expected to play a crucial role in achieving our ambitious goals of improving our customer services and supporting the environment in our operational area,” said CEO of BVS Ladislav Kizak.
A modern water and wastewater infrastructure for Bratislava
The modernization project financed by EIB will include the replacement of aging infrastructure with advanced, efficient technologies designed to minimize water loss and improve distribution efficiency as well as expansion of the BVS` network to accommodate the needs from the steadily expanding city. Expansion of the water supply network will also increase protection of surface and underground waters in metropolitan Bratislava as well as improve protection of the Danube.
Additionally, the adoption of biomass energy sources will significantly reduce the utility’s carbon footprint, aligning with the city’s commitment to climate action.
Background information
European Investment Bank: The European Investment Bank (ElB) is the long-term lending institution of the European Union, owned by its Member States. Built around eight core priorities, we finance investments that contribute to EU policy objectives by bolstering climate action and the environment, digitalisation and technological innovation, security and defence, cohesion, agriculture and bioeconomy, social infrastructure, the capital markets union, and a stronger Europe in a more peaceful and prosperous world.
The EIB is one of the largest lenders to the global water sector, with over €88 billion invested in more than 1 700 projects improving sanitation, providing access to safe drinking water and reducing the risk of flooding.
The EIB Group, which also includes the European Investment Fund (EIF), signed nearly €89 billion in new financing for over 900 high-impact projects in 2024, boosting Europe’s competitiveness and security.
All projects financed by the EIB Group are in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, as pledged in our Climate Bank Roadmap. Almost 60% of the EIB Group’s annual financing supports projects directly contributing to climate change mitigation, adaptation, and a healthier environment.
Fostering market integration and mobilising investment, the Group supported a record of over €100 billion in new investment for Europe’s energy security in 2024 and mobilised €110 billion in growth capital for startups, scale-ups and European pioneers
Approximately half of the EIB’s financing within the European Union is directed towards cohesion regions, where per capita income is lower than the EU average.
Bratislavská vodárenská spoločnosť (BVS): Bratislavská vodárenská spoločnosť, a.s. (BVS) supplies drinking water to approximately 740 000 regular customers in 118 municipalities across western Slovakia. It draws water primarily from exceptionally high-quality underground sources. Thanks to its advantageous location near the Danube River and the unique gravel-sand subsoil, these water sources are both high-quality and abundant. The 60 water sources that BVS currently operates could technically cover the consumption of more than half of Slovakia. The network of more than 3 200 kilometers of water pipes transports water in 130 water reservoirs and to its customers.
The second key task of BVS is disposing of wastewater in municipalities connected to the public sewage network. For this purpose, more than 1 800 kilometers of sewer pipes are used, which transport wastewater to 23 wastewater treatment plants. One is the Central Wastewater Treatment Plant in Vrakuňa, the most significant Slovak wastewater treatment plant, with a capacity of 172 800 m3 per day, or 2 000 l per second.
BVS controls the quality of drinking and treated wastewater in its accredited laboratories.
BVS’s shares are owned by 89 shareholders, that are cities and municipalities from the region where BVS operates. The City of Bratislava is the majority shareholder, with a share of 59,29 percent. BVS itself holds more than 8 percent of its shares.
Banks play an indispensable role in an economy that works for everyone.1 They enable households to borrow to buy a home, save for the future, and deal with the ups and downs of managing finances. Banks provide the credit for businesses to smooth out income and expenses, supply capital to seize new opportunities and create jobs, and facilitate the flow of payments that are the lifeblood of our economy. And banks borrow from households and businesses as well, such as through federally insured deposits. Because of these vital roles, we need to make sure that banks are resilient and serve as a source of strength to the economy in both good times and when the financial system comes under stress. In our market economy, like any business, banks compete with each other and pursue profits by balancing risk-taking with safety and soundness. But because of the key role banks play in the economy, and the fact that banks do not fully internalize the costs of their own failure, regulation and supervision must ensure that banks do not take on excessive risks that can cause widespread harm to households and businesses. Bank failures are as old as banking, and we’ve seen repeated waves of bank failures over the centuries. America learned that hard lesson nearly 100 years ago, when bank failures played a central role in the Great Depression. In response, the United States—and many other countries around the globe—set up a system of deposit insurance and enabled emergency lending in times of stress. To balance the moral hazard of the federal safety net, Congress established a framework of regulation and supervision to make it more likely that banks internalize the costs to society of their risk-taking. But finance is always evolving, and the buildup of new risks led to the banking crisis of the 1980s, and then to the Global Financial Crisis, with devastating consequences. Weaknesses that were revealed in regulation and supervision led to unprecedented and unpopular bailouts, and shuttered American businesses, devastated local communities with foreclosures, and millions of individuals lost their jobs and their livelihoods. Government responded in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank Act) and in regulatory reforms by significantly strengthening bank oversight to curb excessive risk-taking. The message from the American people was clear: risk-taking must be balanced with the overarching need to maintain a resilient banking system that can continue to play its crucial role for households and businesses in good times and in bad. Another, perennial lesson from the history of bank regulation and supervision is that the job is never done, and that the constant evolution of finance means risks will also evolve. As Vice Chair for Supervision, I have recognized the need to approach this mission with humility, aware that I don’t have all the answers or perfect foresight of where things can go wrong. Both regulators and banks are limited in our ability to comprehensively identify and measure risks. Our financial system is complex, interconnected, and evolving. We cannot fully appreciate how a specific vulnerability can interact with other vulnerabilities to amplify and propagate risk in the face of shocks, let alone accurately anticipate shocks in time to avoid them. When I became Vice Chair for Supervision in July 2022, the Global Financial Crisis was almost 15 years past, and much had been done to strengthen the resilience of the system to reflect lessons learned. But in March 2023, we experienced the second largest bank failure in history, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the subsequent failures of Signature Bank and First Republic Bank. SVB’s failure triggered stress throughout the system and required the issuance of a systemic risk exemption and the creation of an emergency bank lending program.2 We have made some progress toward addressing the gaps that led to the failures. But there will be headwinds that we must guard against in the coming years, as well as ongoing vulnerabilities and areas of risk that require continued vigilance. Earlier this year, I announced I would step down as Vice Chair for Supervision but remain a member of the Board of Governors. It has been an honor and a privilege to serve as vice chair for supervision, and to work with colleagues to help maintain the stability and strength of the U.S. financial system so that it can meet the needs of households and businesses. I’ve determined that I would be more effective in serving the American people from my role as governor. In this role, I’ll continue to participate in monetary policy deliberations and vote on matters before the Board, including those related to supervision and regulation. While it was a tough decision to make, I believe it was the right decision for the institution and, more importantly, for the public, whom we serve. The risk of a dispute over my position would be a distraction from our important mission. I feel strongly—as Chair Powell has said publicly many times—that the independence of the Federal Reserve is critical to our ability to meet our statutory mandates and serve the American public. Put simply, our mission is too important to let such a dispute distract from doing our job for the American people. Since my term for Vice Chair for Supervision will end later this month, I’d like to use one of my last opportunities as Vice Chair to discuss seven specific risks ahead: (1) maintaining and finishing post-financial crisis reforms; (2) maintaining the credibility of the stress test; (3) maintaining credible, consistent supervision; (4) encouraging responsible innovation; (5) addressing cyber and third-party risk; (6) risks in the nonbank sector; and (7) climate risk. Each will continue to be a risk in either the near- or long-term. Maintaining and Finishing Post-Financial Crisis ReformsThere is always push back on financial regulation. I felt that even in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, as I helped to draft the legislative response to that crisis, the Dodd-Frank Act.3 And I felt that over the last few years as we worked to finish the job of post-crisis financial reform and take up evolving threats revealed from the latest bank stress. It is important to get the balance right, but it is also important to stand up for the American people. I urge regulators to finish the job of implementing the final plank of the Global Financial Crisis reforms—and not to dismantle the hard-fought resilience that banks have built up in the process. Of course, there are always ways to increase efficiency and reform prior methods without costs to resiliency, and I support those efforts. But as I’ve spoken about many times, capital is critical to absorb losses and enable banks to continue operations through times of stress, and capital requirements should be aligned with the risks that banks take.4 The Basel III endgame reforms include many improvements to how we measure credit, trading, operational, and derivatives risks in light of our experience in the Global Financial Crisis. All major jurisdictions except the United States have finalized rules that would implement these standards for their internationally active banks. The Federal Reserve played a central role in developing these standards in the many years before my arrival as Vice Chair. The Board sought comment on a proposal in July 2023 to implement the Basel III reforms, and we received a wide range of comments on the proposal.5 On the basis of those comments, I took steps last fall to outline broad and material changes that would better balance the benefits and costs of capital in light of comments received and would result in a capital framework that appropriately reflects the risks of banks.6 These reforms had broad consensus on the Board and the support of the heads of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. When the U.S. provides leadership in international forums like Basel and then follows through, we set a powerful example and establish a standard that other jurisdictions also uphold. Implementing international standards enables U.S. firms to compete on a level playing field across the globe and makes the system safer. When we don’t follow through on our commitments, for whatever reason, concerns about a level playing field rise in other jurisdictions, in an international “race to the bottom” on standards. This harms us all and makes U.S. banks less competitive. And unless the U.S. implements these standards, other jurisdictions will force U.S. banks operating abroad to meet their standards instead. Let me turn to unfinished business from the March 2023 banking stress. In that event, we learned that bank runs and bank failures can happen fast, much faster than before. Before SVB, the largest bank to fail did so over a period of several weeks. The deposit losses experienced by SVB were much greater in both relative and absolute terms, and they occurred in less than 24 hours.7 Over the past two years, the Federal Reserve has worked with banks to improve their ability to borrow from the discount window, and the financial system’s collective readiness has improved significantly compared to pre-SVB, including with a substantial increase of $1 trillion in collateral pledged across the system.8 The Federal Reserve has also worked to improve the functioning of the discount window, through a concerted effort to gather public input and identify areas for modernization. These efforts have improved the ability of banks to weather stress, both individually and collectively, which enhances financial stability. However, there is still more work to do. For instance, banks, even the largest banks, are not currently required to establish a minimum level of readiness at the window, and, as a result, there are outlier firms that are not prepared for stress. This needs to change. Without a requirement there is also a significant risk of backtracking on the substantial progress in readiness we have made since March 2023. Another important lesson from SVB is a classic one: balance sheet vulnerabilities among a group of institutions can be a source of contagion for the financial system and thus a key stability risk. While we did much to improve the resilience of global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) in the past decade, March 2023 showed that significant systemic risks can develop and spread from stress anywhere in the system, including in large and regional banks that are not G-SIBs.9 The resilience of these firms has improved as they have recognized their vulnerabilities, and we have worked through supervisory channels to encourage risk-management practices that put them on a firmer footing. But we also need to put in place more durable solutions to address risks. For one, the level of capital held by large banks needs to align with the underlying risks on their balance sheets. One important step would be to finalize the requirement that all large firms reflect unrealized losses on available for sale securities in their capital, which is a reform with broad agreement. This will help them manage interest rate risk before it gets to extreme levels, a significant problem revealed in the banking stress of two years ago. Another lesson from the spring of 2023 is that large and regional banks—as well as G-SIBs—should ensure that they can actually monetize the securities on which they rely for their liquidity. Why does this matter? Banks need to be able to turn a portion of their assets into cash with a speed sufficient to meet outflows when uninsured depositors or other short-term creditors demand it. Regulation needs to reflect realistic assumptions about monetization. We should also consider updating some assumptions about deposit outflows in our liquidity requirements so that they better align with observed stress behavior. During the stress in 2023, we saw uninsured deposits from high-net worth individuals and certain entities, such as venture capital firms, behave more like highly sophisticated financial counterparties than nonfinancial companies or ordinary retail depositors, which is how they are generally treated in regulations.10 This mis-measured risk of deposit outflows means banks may not have sufficient liquidity to manage a stress period. In a related vein, banks have stepped up their use of reciprocal deposit arrangements—arrangements where deposits are spread across many banks within a network—as a way to manage the risk of deposit amounts over $250,000.11 While this arrangement spreads risk across the banking system, it is a strategy that has not been tested in a large-scale stress event. It is only logical to wonder how the attenuation of relationships between customers and banks under reciprocal arrangements will affect the behavior of depositors worried about a bank run. We also need to be attentive to operational risks in these arrangements, as well as the risk-management capacity of these companies to manage these relationships under stress. A final lesson from the bank stress two years ago is that we need to do more to ensure that all banks that come under stress can be resolved in an orderly fashion. One way to do this would be to require all large banks—including those that are not G-SIBS—to issue certain amounts of long-term debt. This would have helped reassure depositors worried about the stability of bank funding and aided in the eventual resolution of at least some of the banks that came under stress in 2023. The banking agencies have proposed a rule on long-term debt requirements, we have received many helpful comments that led us to adjust it in draft form, and I support moving forward to finalize it with those adjustments.12 As I mentioned, revised Basel III standards, revised long-term debt requirements, and to-be-proposed liquidity standards would help to address gaps in our current framework, and I continue to believe that they should move forward. Moreover, banks and supervisors should also stay vigilant to known risks in the current environment. For instance, risks remain in the commercial real estate market, particularly within the office segment, as borrowers may find it difficult to refinance maturing loans. And interest rate risk, especially for those with high levels of uninsured deposits, remains a key area of focus. Maintain the Credibility of the Stress TestWe face a challenging environment with the Federal Reserve’s annual stress tests. The stress tests helped the financial sector emerge from the Global Financial Crisis and rebuild its credibility. The annual stress tests are still important to the financial sector’s credibility today. The stress tests help banks, market participants, and supervisors understand the banks’ vulnerabilities to shocks and to guard against those shocks by holding sufficient capital. In December, the Board announced that, due to the evolving legal landscape, we would be undertaking significant changes to the stress tests to reduce capital volatility and improve transparency.13 While I recognize that we need to increase transparency to reflect changes in the legal environment in which we operate, there are good reasons why I and many of my colleagues and predecessors have been averse to such full disclosures since the inception of the stress test fifteen years ago. There are several risks that we will need to guard against. First, we need to guard against the risk that the process results in reduced capital requirements. As they did during the Basel III process, banks are likely to argue against various aspects of the Fed’s models that result in higher capital requirements, and not to highlight the areas in which the models underestimate risks. We should take those comments on the Fed’s models seriously and adjust the models as appropriate, but we should be careful not to overcorrect and lower bank capital requirements in ways that underestimate aggregate risk. The Administrative Procedure Act should be a vehicle for transparency and public input into agency action, not used to weaken regulatory requirements that preserve the safety and stability of our financial system. Second, we need to guard against the risk that banks lower their capital requirements because of increased transparency. Increased disclosure of details about the Fed’s stress models could enable banks to optimize stress test results by adjusting their balance sheet based on their knowledge of where the models underprice risk, in order to reduce their capital requirements without materially reducing risks. Gaming the test in this way would be a bad outcome for risk management and our economy. Third, banks are likely to change their behavior in other ways that increase risk. We should be aware of the risk that full transparency into the models and scenarios used by regulators could discourage banks from investing in their own risk management if the test becomes too predictable. Full transparency may also encourage concentration across the system in assets that receive comparably lighter treatment in the test. And banks are likely to reduce their management buffers over required levels, which will bring greater risks of breaching the minimums and regulatory buffers when a significant risk event eventually happens. The fourth risk, and perhaps the greatest one, is that over time, given the difficulty of navigating the notice and comment rulemaking process on an ongoing basis to update the models we use, the dynamism and accuracy of the stress test will fade.14 And as the events of two years ago show, it is hard to predict where risks will emerge in the financial system; an inherent challenge of preserving the relevancy of stress testing is coming up with a set of adverse scenarios that are novel enough, and dynamic enough, to reflect the risks that banks may face from unanticipated developments. I believe that the Fed should commit to investing in a credible, effective process to maintain the dynamism of the binding stress test by regularly updating its models and scenario variables to reflect changes in the environment and changes to bank behavior. This will require resources and a strong commitment up front and over time, but it will be necessary to maintain a credible stress test. One effort we’ve already undertaken should help: to maintain the dynamism of the stress test, we launched exploratory stress scenarios to consider a wider range of possible conditions.15 The Fed used this approach during the pandemic, and we’ve now made it a regular part of our annual stress test exercise.16 The exploratory scenarios are not used to set binding capital requirements and are only reported on an aggregate level, but they help the Fed better understand risks posed to individual banks and to the banking system as a whole that are not captured in binding scenarios. I hope and trust that the Fed will continue this important analytical work. As an additional backstop to help ensure banks have sufficient capital to withstand losses, the Fed should preserve its discretion to set individually binding capital requirements on firms based on supervisory judgment under the International Lending Supervision Act. Jurisdictions around the world undertake a similar process under a so-called Basel “Pillar 2” approach, and the United States would benefit from using such a framework as well. That is all the more important given the changes the Fed is undertaking for the binding stress tests. Maintaining Credible, Consistent SupervisionAnother area warranting continued vigilance is supervision. There will undoubtedly be calls to revamp supervision to reduce burden. And I am all for making sure supervision is the most effective and efficient it can be. Supervisors need to focus on the most urgent and important risks, and not burden firms with unnecessary or distracting matters. But we need to be careful to preserve and enhance the ability of supervisors to act with speed, force, and agility as appropriate to the risk. Supervisors have emphasized proactive supervisory engagement, which helps banks address issues before they grow so large as to threaten the bank or broader financial stability. Earlier intervention means that firms are likely to have more options to fix their problems, with little impact on bank profitability.17 We should continue work to improve the effectiveness of our supervision and use data-driven analysis to improve our scoping and prioritization of supervisory issues. I support this work to the extent that it makes our supervision more effective and focused on the right issues. But the Board should resist initiatives that impede effective supervision by discouraging examiners to flag issues early, or initiatives that increase unnecessary process around issuing findings in a manner that impedes the speed and agility of supervision when it is needed. More generally, supervision is another area in which “efficiency and competitiveness” should not be used as an excuse for lax oversight that significantly impairs the safety and soundness of individual institutions and undermines broader financial stability. We should take caution from our experience with SVB. While some have claimed that the examiners at SVB did not focus on the right issues, it’s important to highlight that the Office of Inspector General (OIG) concluded that the Fed allocated an insufficient number of examiner resources to SVB while in the RBO portfolio, and that the examiners assigned to SVB as it was growing did not have sufficient expertise in supervising large, complex institutions.18 Once it was in the large bank portfolio, examiners highlighted the risk from interest rate risk and uninsured depositors, but did not act with sufficient force to get the bank to change course in a timely way. We’ve made important changes since then, but we need to be sure we get the staff resources in place, and provide support to examiners on the front line, so that they can act with the speed, force, and agility warranted by the facts. Encouraging Responsible InnovationAnother set of risks involve those related to the role of innovative technology in the financial sector. Innovation, when done responsibly, brings tremendous benefits to consumers, financial institutions, and the economy at large. For instance, blockchain technology underlying crypto-assets has the potential to make financial services better, cheaper, and faster. Responsible use of this technology could make banking more efficient and accessible to more consumers. With any new technology, there are new risks. To achieve the benefits in a durable manner over time, we must ensure that the associated risks are managed appropriately. With crypto-assets, investors do not currently have the structural protections they have relied on for many decades in other financial markets. It is important that those guardrails are put in place to avoid issues such as the misuse of client funds, misrepresentations, obfuscation about availability of deposit insurance, and fraud. We should also recognize that some of the attractive attributes of crypto-assets—the pseudonymous actors that are parties to transactions, the ease and speed of transfer, and the general irrevocability of transactions—also make crypto-assets attractive for use in money laundering and terrorist financing. It is encouraging to see innovators develop tools and processes to better manage these risks, while harnessing the benefits of the technology. But regulation and supervision also have an essential role to play. Responsible innovation is in everyone’s interest. In the past few years, we stood up the Novel Activities Supervision Program, which dedicates resources to understanding how technology is transforming banking and supports banks’ ability to innovate while ensuring that banks clearly understand and manage the risks associated with innovative activities.19 I hope and trust that approach will continue. Addressing Cyber and Third-Party RiskCyber risk from both foreign powers and non-state actors has become a major concern for banks, and regulators will need to ensure that these risks are being properly managed. The operational disruption propagated through a third-party security company last summer was a wake-up call for banks and regulators about vulnerabilities in a system where security is outsourced. Disruption of one of these critical systems may compromise a bank’s ability to execute important functions and adversely affect individual firm safety and soundness as well as the broader financial system. Given the significant concentration in the IT industry, we should expect operational failures at single IT entities to have potentially far-reaching effects, no matter their original cause. And advances in artificial intelligence are likely to give bad actors new tools for fraud and infiltration, while also providing banks with new tools to combat these attacks. Both banks and the Federal Reserve need to continue to invest in cyber resiliency. Risks in the Nonbank SectorLet me speak next to the perennial concerns of intermediation by financial firms outside the bank regulatory perimeter. An increasingly varied and evolving collection of nonbank clients, including hedge funds, private credit, and insurance companies, is playing a significant role in the global economy and presenting new risks. Beginning with hedge funds, bank exposures to hedge funds have risen over the past several years, and concurrently, hedge fund leverage remains near historic highs.20 Archegos’s failure revealed the risks presented by hedge funds and the degree of interconnectedness between banks and hedge funds. And the exploratory analysis as part of last year’s stress test showed that banks have material exposures to hedge funds under certain market conditions, and that the hedge fund counterparty exposures can vary significant based on the specific set of shocks.21 One area that has grown substantially is the Treasury cash-futures basis trade.22 The basis trade helps provide liquidity and price discovery in normal times, as hedge funds trade with asset managers and other financial institutions to align returns to holding Treasury securities and related futures. But the trade involves high levels of leverage, which can contribute to a rapid unwinding in positions and exacerbate market stress, as we saw in the spring of 2020. In principle, margining practices and participants’ risk-management activities should limit these risks, but individual firms do not account for the spillovers their actions can have on market functioning. These externalities suggest a role for regulation, and the central clearing mandate for Treasury market trading is an important step in supporting the resilience of this market. At the same time, we need to continue to consider how we can support the collection of minimum margin across trading venues and in bilateral trades to avoid loopholes and risks, and continue to monitor banks’ credit risk management practices with these hedge fund counterparties. Another area that has experienced rapid growth in recent years is private credit, which is now comparable in size to the high-yield bond market and leveraged loan market.23 Traditional private credit arrangements rely on limited leverage and generally have long-term funding, making them less vulnerable to the deleveraging spiral associated with high leverage and short-term funding. Nonetheless, risks may be growing. The connections between private credit and banks have been expanding, and private credit remains opaque, with limited information relative to asset classes of similar size.24 Moreover, the rapid growth and opacity of the sector raise the risk that recent private credit arrangements may be assuming new risks. Retail investors can now gain exposure to the asset class through mutual or exchange traded funds, which could present the age-old consumer and financial stability risks we see when opaque, illiquid assets are converted to liquid ones.25 We also need to monitor risks in the insurance industry. Households planning for retirement often rely on life insurance companies to provide them a steady stream of income. In principle, life insurance companies are the ultimate patient investor and thus the natural vehicle to finance long-maturity and risky projects. Indeed, while venture capital funding gets a lot of the attention, mobilized retirement savings through life insurance companies have supported long-term investments in capital-intensive projects. However, life insurance companies, just like other financial institutions, can overpromise and be tempted to take on greater risk than their liability holders or regulators appreciate. Given the complexity of some investment vehicles, the institutions themselves may not fully appreciate all of the risks. The life insurance sector has been changing. Even as the life insurance industry has been increasing its holdings of assets originated by private equity firms, private equity firms have been acquiring life insurers directly. Moreover, private-equity-affiliated insurers rely more heavily on nontraditional liabilities, which may prove flighty in a stress event. This is something to watch carefully. In the next business cycle downturn, it’s possible that unexpected losses at insurance companies could lead to a sharp pullback and deeper credit crunch. Climate RiskFinally, regulators will need to continue to confront the financial risks from climate change. The Federal Reserve has a responsibility to recognize emerging risks to the safety and soundness of banks, to the ability of households and businesses to access financial services, and to financial stability. Costly natural disasters could present just such risks. The recent wildfires in California should be a wake-up call that we need to focus on how insurance markets will need to adjust to more frequent and severe weather events. The loss of life and hardship borne by many households is tragic, and the economic losses associated with the wildfires, while uncertain, are likely to be among the largest losses from a natural disaster on record. The wildfires should remind us of the problems in property and casualty insurance markets—just as the severe flooding caused by Hurricane Helene reminded us of significant gaps in flood insurance coverage. Often the structure and regulation of insurance markets prevents risk from being appropriately priced, limiting the ability of market signals to influence development and adaptation in high-risk areas and contributing to the buildup of risks. And there is a broader question of the extent to which private capital will be sufficient to cover increasing natural disaster risk. The Federal Reserve has an important but narrow role to play with respect to climate change, and that is to focus on risks from climate change to bank safety and soundness and financial stability. The pilot climate scenario analysis conducted by the Federal Reserve was an important step forward in assessing the capacity of the largest banks, as well as in building our own capacity, to perform the kind of analysis that is increasingly crucial as risks arising from more severe weather events become a driver of financial risk for specific firms and the broader economy.26 Guidance for the largest banks also plays an important role in reminding banks of basic principles in prudent risk management as it applies to these types of climate-related risks. ConclusionIn conclusion, the United States has the benefit of a strong, vigorous economy, the deepest and most liquid markets in the world, and a critical place in the world economy through the role of the U.S. dollar. The Federal Reserve has an essential role in maintaining the strength and resilience of the U.S. economy, including through its vigilance about the risks I discussed today. A strong and resilient banking system benefits the American people. We need to be humble about our ability to predict shocks to the financial system, and how they will propagate through vulnerabilities in the system. That is why it is so important to have strong regulation and supervision as shock absorbers to protect households and businesses from risks emanating from the financial system. In closing, I want to speak directly to the staff of the Federal Reserve and express my deep gratitude. Your rigorous analysis and deep expertise are fundamental to our ability to promote a strong and stable financial system that serves the American people. Thank you for your outstanding service.
1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text 2. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Department of the Treasury, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, “Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC,” press release, March 12, 2023; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Federal Reserve Board Announces It Will Make Available Additional Funding to Eligible Depository Institutions to Help Assure Banks Have the Ability to Meet the Needs of All Their Depositors,” press release, March 12, 2023. Return to text 3. See, e.g., U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Remarks by Assistant Secretary Michael Barr” (speech at the Financial Times Global Finance Forum, New York, NY, December 2, 2010). Return to text 4. See, e.g., speeches by Michael S. Barr: “Why Bank Capital Matters” (speech at the American Enterprise Institute, Washington, D.C., December 1, 2022); “Holistic Capital Review (PDF)” (speech at the Bipartisan Policy Center, Washington, D.C., July 10, 2023); “The Next Steps on Capital” (speech at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., September 10, 2024); and “On Building a Resilient Regulatory Framework” (speech at Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference, Fernandina Beach, FL, May 20, 2024). Return to text 5. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Agencies Request Comment on Proposed Rules to Strengthen Capital Requirements for Large Banks,” press release, July 27, 2023. Return to text 6. by Michael S. Barr: “The Next Steps on Capital” (speech at the Brookings Institution, Washington, D.C., (September 10, 2024). Return to text 7. See “Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr memo” in Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Review of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank (PDF) (Washington, April 2023). Return to text 8. See “Discount Window Readiness”. Return to text 9. For an earlier perspective, see Hearing on Prudential Oversight before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs (PDF), July 23, 2015 (statement by Michael S. Barr). Return to text 10. 12 CFR 249. 32-33. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Review of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank (Washington, April 2023); and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, FDIC’s Supervision of First Republic Bank (PDF) (Washington: September 2023). Return to text 11. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Financial Stability Report (PDF) (Washington: November 2024). Return to text 12. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Agencies Request Comment on Proposed Rule to Require Large Banks to Maintain Long-Term Debt to Improve Financial Stability and Resolution,” press release, August 29, 2023. Return to text 13. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, “Due to Evolving Legal Landscape and Changes in the Framework of Administrative Law, Federal Reserve Board Will Soon Seek Public Comment on Significant Changes to Improve Transparency of Bank Stress Tests and Reduce Volatility of Resulting Capital Requirements,” press release, December 23, 2024. Return to text 14. That model sclerosis contributed to the failure of the supervisory stress test used for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac before the Global Financial Crisis, with devastating results. Scott Frame, Krisopher Gerardi, and Paul Willen, “The Failure of Supervisory Stress Testing: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and OFHEO,” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Working Paper No. 15-4 (October 2015). Return to text 15. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Exploratory Analysis of Risks to the Banking System (PDF) (Washington: June 2024). Return to text 16. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Assessment of Bank Capital during the Recent Coronavirus Event (PDF) (Washington: June 2020). Return to text 17. Beverly Hirtle and Anna Kovner, “Bank Supervision,” Annual Review of Financial Economics 14 (2022): 39–56. Return to text 18. Office of Inspector General, Material Loss Review of Silicon Valley Bank (PDF) (Washington: September 25, 2023). Return to text 19. See https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/novel-activities-supervision-program.htm. Return to text 20. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Financial Stability Report (PDF) (Washington: November 2024). Return to text 21. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Exploratory Analysis of Risks to the Banking System (PDF) (Washington: June 2024). Return to text 22. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Financial Stability Report (PDF) (Washington: November 2024). Return to text 23. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Financial Stability Report (PDF) (Washington: November 2024). Return to text 24. John Levin and Antoine Malfroy-Camine, “Bank Lending to Private Equity and Private Credit Funds: Insights from Regulatory Data,” Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Supervisory Research and Analysis Notes (February 2025). Return to text 25. Chapter 2 The Rise and Risks of Private Credit in: Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024. Return to text 26. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Pilot Climate Scenario Analysis Exercise: Summary of Participants’ Risk-Management Practices and Estimates (PDF) (Washington: May 2024). Return to text
Headline: Governor Stein Provides Update on Winter Weather, Urges Caution on Treacherous Roads
Governor Stein Provides Update on Winter Weather, Urges Caution on Treacherous Roads lsaito
Raleigh, NC
Today, Governor Josh Stein and the State Emergency Response Team are providing further updates on the state of winter weather, as well as resources for North Carolinians who are impacted by the storm. Governor Stein advises that all North Carolinians continue to pay attention to their local weather forecasts and stay off the roads as much as possible.
“As winter weather continues today, we are doing everything we can to keep North Carolinians safe and respond to the effects of the storm” said Governor Josh Stein. “Frigid temperatures and wet roads are making travel dangerous, resulting in one tragic fatality. Please stay off the roads if you can. If you need help, reach out to your county’s emergency operations center or the North Carolina Disaster Case Management hotline. Please stay safe and check on your neighbors to ensure that they’re safe too.”
As of noon today, there are an estimated 6,105 power outages statewide, with the majority of those outages in eastern North Carolina communities impacted by ice. The State Emergency Response Team remains activated to support local first responders, energy providers, and the NC Department of Transportation, with the NC National Guard remaining in central and eastern North Carolina to assist on the roadways. This includes 188 guardsmen with 60 vehicles.
Officials with the NC Department of Transportation are urging people to avoid unnecessary travel today, as many of the state’s snow-and-ice covered roads are treacherous. The agency has seen numerous crashes yesterday and overnight, including one confirmed fatality, due to people losing control of their vehicles.
Since the first snow began to fall Wednesday morning, NCDOT’s maintenance crews and contractors have been hard at work clearing roads of ice and snow. More than 2,300 NCDOT employees, in addition to the agency’s contractors, are operating more than 2,200 trucks and motor graders to treat roads. NCDOT officials have used more than 12,650 tons of salt to treat roads since snow began to fall.
NCDOT’s cut and shove teams are removing fallen trees and debris from roads and working with the agency’s utility partners in cases involving downed power lines. NCDOT is prioritizing clearing the interstates and then US and NC routes, followed by secondary roads.
“Our crews are working around the clock to clear roads across the state and will not stop until the job is done,” said NCDOT Secretary Joey Hopkins. “The snow and ice dumped on our state have left many roads too dangerous for travel. If you don’t need to be on the roads, please stay home and stay safe.”
Much of the state is not expected to see significant thawing until Friday afternoon, when temperatures will climb above freezing. Road conditions will continue to be dangerous for several mornings as overnight temperatures leave behind black ice on many roads. When conditions improve, people should check the state’s real-time travel conditions on DriveNC.gov before heading out.
For information on power outages and how your and your family can be prepared for continued winter weather and cold temperatures, visit www.readync.gov.
Hurricane Helene disaster survivors can reach FEMA for help today by calling 1-800-621-3362. The physical FEMA Disaster Recovery Centers across western North Carolina will be closed today due to weather conditions.
The North Carolina Disaster Case Management Program (NC-DCM) remains available for Helene survivors. To access resources and assistance, call 1-844-746-2326 or visit www.ncdps.gov/helene/dcm. To date, NC-DCM has handled applications from 2,143 survivors and fielded at least 5,676 calls for assistance with needs including housing, financial, navigating FEMA assistance, food, and furniture or appliances.
When I first arrived at the top secret Porton Down laboratory, I was aware of very little about its activities. I knew it was the UK’s chemical defence research centre and that over the years it had conducted tests with chemical agents on humans.
But what really happened there was shrouded in mystery. This made it a place which was by turns fascinating and scary. Its association with the cold war, reinforced by images of gas mask-wearing soldiers and reports of dangerous (and in one case fatal) experiments, also made it seem a little sinister.
The shroud of secrecy resulted in it being the subject of some lively fiction, such as The Satan Bug by Alistair MacLean, which revolves around the theft of two deadly germ warfare agents from a secret research facility and in the “Hounds of Baskerville” episode of the BBC drama Sherlock in which the hero uncovers a sinister plot involving animals experiments.
Even Porton’s own publicity material recognises that where secrecy exists imagination can take flight, and attests:
No aliens, either alive or dead have ever been taken to Porton Down or any other Dstl [Defence Science and Technology Laboratory] site.
But it’s also the place where in recent years scientists analysed samples confirming that a Novichok nerve agent had been used to poison former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter (coincidentally, just a few miles away). And where an active research programme on Ebola played an important role in the UK’s support to Sierra Leone during the 2014 outbreak.
So what is the truth? Over three years my research took me into the heart of the mystery, as I studied its extensive historical archive. The reality was not as I expected. I came across no aliens, but I did discover records of experiments that ran from the ordinary, through to the bizarre. And sadly, in one isolated case, the lethal.
Arriving at Porton Down, for example, was unexpectedly low key. The main gate is located off a public road on an otherwise quiet stretch between Porton Down village and the A30. It is in many ways visually similar to the entrance to Lancaster University in the north of England where I work as a lecturer in epidemiology.
Bar some signs announcing it as the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (dstl) of the Ministry of Defence, the road is devoid of obvious security. No barriers block entry. This sense of the extraordinary hiding behind the ordinary was reinforced by the undistinguished visitor car park from where it is a short walk to the nondescript single story reception building.
There is also (perhaps unusually for a government chemical weapons research centre) a bus stop next to the main gate, from where you can get the number 66 to Salisbury.
So on my first visit in 2002 I made that short walk from the visitor car park to the reception and announced myself. I was pleased to find I was expected and looked into the security camera as bidden. After a hard stare from the receptionist I was issued, on that my first day, with a temporary pass. On it was written: “MUST BE ACCOMPANIED AT ALL TIMES” in bright red.
My contact, Dawn, arrived and led me through the main gate where security started to become more obvious. An armed policeman gave us a small nod as we passed through, his hands staying firmly on the machine gun strapped to his chest. Dawn paid little attention other than a brief hello and we were inside, heading to the headquarters.
It was from here that the management of Porton Down organised the programmes of testing which had ultimately resulted in my presence there – to research the health effects of chemical experiments on humans.
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Since its inception in 1916 it has researched chemical weapons, protective measures against chemical weapons, and has recruited over 20,000 volunteers to participate in tests in its research programmes.
Hut 42 – opening the archive
This archive was opened to my colleagues and I after previously being firmly hidden from public view. This shift in approach was the result of government approval for a study into the long-term health of the human volunteers. The action was triggered by complaints from a group of people who had been tested on and who claimed their health had been damaged as a result.
The government was also keen to ward off accusations of cover ups. In 1953 Ronald Maddison, a young RAF volunteer, died in a nerve agent experiment at the site. The original inquest was held in secret and returned a verdict of misadventure. But in 2004 the government ordered a second, public, inquest.
This, along with a police investigation into the behaviour of some of the Porton Down scientists persuaded the government to fund independent research into the health effect of the experiments.
A research group from the department of public health at the University of Oxford won IS WON RIGHT WORD? sk I was part of that group. Porton participated fully and opened its doors and archive to the project. I went ahead of the research team to deal with the practicalities of gaining access. My first task was to set up an office. So Dawn led me onwards to the building that had been put aside for our use.
We passed into the inner, more secure, area. This part of Porton Down was where the main scientific work was carried out. This inner secure area was surrounded by a high chain link fence and there was one principal entry point, next to a guard room.
Inspecting our passes was another armed MoD police officer. Alerted by my red pass he was all for barring my way until Dawn stepped in. Now vouched for, we were waved through and passed onwards to the building that would become my home for the best part of three years – hut 42.
‘People had neat handwriting then’
Hut 42 was a nondescript redbrick, single-story building, which sits next to the main library and information centre and from the outside could be mistaken for a school boiler room. In it were five desks and several metal filing cabinets closed with combination locks.
Our purpose there was to study the historical archive, including the handwritten books of experiment data. We then transferred that material into a database for later analysis. This process took four people two years of hard work, but we were lucky.
Porton Down’s record keeping was excellent. Early on I had worried that handwritten records would be hard to decipher and had asked a Porton Down librarian whether they would be legible. “Definitely”, was the reply. “People had neat handwriting then. It’s the records from the 1970s you’ll have to watch. They’re dreadfully scrappy,” he said.
And so it was proved. The records of tests from an era before computers, carried out with substances such as mustard gas, were routinely neatly and clearly documented.
Porton Down experiment book, showing drop tests to the arms during one of the first nerve agent tests.
A picture of a page in one of the experiment books on which is recorded the first nerve agent test for Tabun on April 10, 1945. Thomas Keegan
I met Porton Down’s resident medical doctor in the archive to start discussing the nature of the experiments. Simon (not his real name) was in his mid-thirties with boyish curly hair and an anorak. “You’ll find everything you’ll need in here, in these cupboards,” he said. “First, I’ll show you how to open the cupboard. It’s like this”, he said. “A five number combination. Five times anticlockwise to reach the first number, four times clockwise for the second, three times anticlockwise for the third and so on.”
There was a pause while he demonstrated. “Sometimes they can be a bit sticky”, he said after the first attempt. He got the cupboard open on the second try.
The archive was a mixture of handwritten experimental and administrative records. The administrative records were essentially lists of attendees with dates and personal characteristics such as age. The experimental records reported the results of the tests with people in a variety of ways. Some were in the form of descriptive text, others used pictograms to record the site visually, for example where a drop of mustard gas was placed on the skin. Many contained tables of data, all hand drawn and as legible as if they had been printed. Our cupboards contained around 140 such books spanning a period from the start of the second world war to the end of the 1980s.
The story the records told was a fascinating one.
In the 50 years following the outbreak of the second world war, Porton Down encouraged over 20,000 men, nearly all members of the UK armed forces, to take part in experiments at the site.
These men (the regular armed forces had yet to admit women) took part in a programme of tests that ran from experiments using liquid mustard “gas” dropped onto bare skin to inhalation of nerve agents. There were also tests with antidotes and other gasses and liquids too.
Chemical experiments
The records show that between 1939 and 1989, over 400 different substances were tested at Porton. Mustard gas, sarin, and nitrogen mustard were frequently tested. These chemicals are known as “vesicants” for their ability to cause fluid filled blisters (or vesicles) on the skin or any other site of contact. First world war soldiers were familiar with the horrors of this gas, which was first used by Germany at the Battle of Ypres in 1915. John Singer Sergeant’s powerful painting Gassed expressed the effect of mustard gas on soldiers exposed in the trenches.
Other major chemical tests were riot control agents, such as CS and CR, these being the only chemicals tested that have been used by UK forces in peacetime, their purpose being crowd control.
Mostly, we were kept far away from anything other than paper records. As Britain had given up its chemical arsenal and any offensive capability in the 1950s, there was, as Simon had explained, no stores of chemical agents at Porton Down, except of course, small amounts of those that were needed to test human defences. By a circuitous route however, I came nearer to some than I was expecting.
‘Would you like a sniff?’
Hut 42, was not, it turned out, wholly for our use. While some Porton staff shared access to the archive and popped in now and then to examine records and take photocopies, the building had one other permanent resident – Porton Down’s in-house historian Gradon Carter. Carter was in his late 70s and had worked at Porton Down as an archivist for more than 20 years. He prided himself on knowing more than anyone alive about the history and administration of the institution.
He wore tweed and had the air of a world weary Latin master, but rather than the accoutrements of his trade being Latin textbooks, his were the paraphernalia of chemical warfare. Around his desk were examples of gas masks from various periods of history, and on the wall, posters inviting people to “always carry your gas mask”.
One of his exhibits was a box, about the size of a packet of breakfast cereal, which contained glass phials, each carefully labelled with the contents. These included mustard gas, lewsite and phosgene.
The box was from the 1940s. It was a training tool to help troops recognise different gasses on the battlefield. “Would you like a sniff of mustard?”, he offered. It so happened I did. Nearly 60 years after it was first bottled, I can report that Carter’s mustard gas had very little smell, but I was reluctant to get close to test any of its other properties. He re-corked it. “Some lewisite?” he suggested.
Lewisite was produced in 1918 for use in the first world war but its production was too late for it to be used. Another vesicant, it causes blistering of the skin and mucous membranes (eyes, nose, throat) on contact.
I declined Carter’s kind offer.
Other chemicals appeared in the records less frequently. There were the lovely vomiting agents, which are designed to winkle their way under your gas mask to make you sick, which will make you take off your gas mask making you vulnerable to the next wave of attack by, for example, nerve agents.
These agents were relatively standard members of a chemical arsenal. In an effort to expand its horizons, Porton Down opened its collective mind in the early 1960s to the usefulness of psychedelics in warfare and tested LSD for its potential as a disruptor of enemy military discipline.
The tests showed that troops became unable to put up much of a fight, but ultimately the chemicals were rejected as means of mass disruption. You can see a video of a test at Porton Down with LSD below.
In the video, a troop of Royal Marines can be seen taking part in an exercise during which they are given LSD. Not long afterwards the men become barely capable of military action and seem to find almost everything funny. One man seems not to know which end of a bazooka to point at the enemy.
The most commonly tested substances at Porton, according to our data, were mustard gas, lewisite and pyridostigmine (more of which later) with thousands of tests undertaken. Less frequently tested were a basket of chemicals including sodium amytal (a barbiturate) and more strangely perhaps, 49 tests with pastinacea sativa – the irritant wild parsnip.
Not all men who took part in tests did so with chemical agents. Many visited Porton Down and were “tested” with substances that were not intended to be harmful but which must have been providing useful information of some kind. Some people were tested with “lubricating oil” (498 people) and “ethanol” (204 people). Many tests were with protective equipment such as materials for protective suits and with respirators.
Nerve agent tests
Around 3,000 people were tested with nerve agents. The number of nerve agents tested was not extensive, with six principal agents recorded. These were tabun, (known as GA), soman (GD), sarin (GB), cyclo sarin (GF), and methylphosphonothioic acid (VX).
The period of nerve agent research ran from the early postwar period to the late 1980s, and coincided with the cold war, when military tension between the Nato countries and the USSR was high.
The archive was rich in information on these tests. The records included detail of the time and place of each test along with details of who took part, noting both staff and volunteer participants. Records on the early tests are especially revealing.
Chambers like this were used to carry out tests on nerve agents. Thomas Keegan
For example, in 1945 nerve agents were not yet known to Porton Down scientists. They had come close to discovering nerve agents when they had worked on PF-3, a chemical of the same organophosphate type as the nerve agents, but they had not thought it sufficiently toxic.
However, these agents were well known to German scientists, and to the German military who weaponised them during the second world war. Despite fears to the contrary, gas was not used in the fighting, though Germany had clearly prepared for chemical warfare.
Nazi agents and gin and tonic
Advancing US forces moving through Germany came across stockpiles of artillery shells in a railway marshalling yard near Osnabrück that contained suspicious liquids. The markings on the shells – a white ring on one type and green and yellow rings on the other – were new to the Americans. The shells were sent to the US and Porton Down for investigation.
After initial analysis, Porton scientists found that the shells with the white ring contained tear gas. The other contained an unknown substance (later it would be named tabun).
Tabun is one of the extremely toxic organophosphate nerve agents. It has a fruity odour reminiscent of bitter almonds. Exposure can cause death in minutes. Between 1 and 10 mL of tabun on the skin can be fatal.
On April 10 1945, after some laboratory tests, the scientists decided to test the new chemical on people. In fact, as Carter pointed out to me, disaster could have struck immediately as the first nerve agent to arrive at Porton for testing was transported to the lab in a test tube stoppered only with cotton wool.
Thinking this was a new variety of mustard gas, they placed drops on the participants’ skin. The scientists also placed drops in the eyes of some rabbits. The records show that before any serious effect to the humans could be noted one of the rabbits died, giving the scientists running the tests a fright.
The chemical was quickly wiped off the men’s arms and the test ended there. According to a brief memoir supplied by Carter, Dr Ainsworth (who was involved in the tests) said that Captain Fairly (the Porton scientist being tested on) had been shaken by the experience but recovered “after a stiff gin and tonic in his office”.
This sporting attitude to self-testing was not uncommon among scientists, however. Dr Ainsworth later tested a method for reducing the effect of a splash of nerve agent on the skin which involved a tourniquet and opening a vein – something he thought worked well.
But he was used to the pioneering methods of the day. “Taste this,” the pharmacologist John (later Sir John) Gaddum had ordered on one previous occasion. Dr Ainsworth sipped the liquid offered and reported that it tasted a little like gin. “That’s strange”, Professor Gaddum said. “I can’t taste anything. It’s diluted lewisite and the rats simply won’t drink it.”
Back at the wartime testing lab they were keen to find out more about what was now understood to be a new type of chemical agent developed by German scientists and weaponsied by their armed forces. The following week, ten people were exposed in a chamber, at the higher concentration of 1 in 5 million. In the pioneering spirit not uncommon at Porton, four of the subjects: Commandant Notley, Major Sadd, Mr Wheeler and Major Curten were Porton staff. Major Curten reported having a tightness of chest, and a slight contraction of the pupils, unlike the commandant who had no reaction but thought the gas smelled of boiled sweets.
An undated photograph of the southern end of the Porton Down campus showing the bus stop outside. The grey building is thought to be one of the exposure chambers. Thomas Keegan
Later that morning the scientists had another go, this time at a higher concentration, 1 in 1 million. The symptoms were now more noticeable, with more than one person vomiting and others needing treatment the following day for the persistent symptoms of headaches and eye pain.
Given what we have since learned about tabun, it seems at the very least cavalier of the scientists to conduct these tests on themselves and others. They were were lucky not to have been seriously injured or even killed, but those were the risks they seemed willing to take.
Fatal consequences
The last entries in the archive for nerve agent tests were for 1989 so newer compounds such as novichok, used in an attempted assassination in nearby Salisbury, were not included. One later nerve agent tested in the 1960s was VX, then a scarily potent new nerve agent.
According to the Centers for Disease Control in the US, VX is one of the most toxic of the known chemical warfare agents. It is tasteless and odourless and exposure can cause death in minutes. As little as one drop of VX on the skin can be fatal.
It was not developed into a weapon by the UK, as by then it had abandoned an offensive capability, but tests were carried out on a relatively small number of volunteers. I mentioned VX to Carter. He recalled that the first sample of VX was first discovered, accidentally, at an ICI chemical factory in the UK and sent to Porton in the regular post. Luckily, nobody was exposed.
In one notorious episode however, the tests of nerve agents on humans did not go as expected.
As I referred to earlier, in 1953, during an early nerve agent experiment, the young airman, Ronald Maddison died. Testing was paused at Porton after an inquiry by the eminent Cambridge academic Lord Adrian and limits on exposures were set after resumption in 1954. A second inquest into the death returned a verdict of unlawful killing in 2004.
One of the founders of the Porton Down Veterans Group, Ken Earl was in the same experiment. He remembered vividly being in the same chamber as Maddison, and while not affected seriously at the time, felt his health issues later in life were directly related to the test. In an interview with the BBC, he attributed the many health problems he suffered through his life, including skin conditions, depression and a heart irregularity, to his experience at Porton Down.
Our research could not establish a direct link to the kind of ill health Earl suffered. But our data on the short-term effects did show a good deal about the immediate aftermath of a nerve agent exposure, similar to the type Earl experienced.
The physiological effect of exposure to nerve agents varies greatly between individuals as our previous research has shown. The strength of symptoms varies too. Five of the six participants in the same test as Maddison did not report adverse effects other than feeling a bit cold.
However, tests before this had shown that certain effects were consistently seen with nerve agent exposures. In July 1951 six people participated in a test with soman. The lab book notes:
5/5 experienced pain in eyes, blinker effect and blurred vision 30 minutes after exposure (these symptoms continued for 24 hours). 1 participant vomited 4 hours after exposure. 2 participants vomited 24 hours after exposure. Eye pain and vision improved after 48 hours but not normal – return to normal after 5 days. 4/5 given multiple doses of atropine.
While these effects must have been unpleasant, it is also shown that participants in nerve agent tests had between one and two “exposures”. Those in tests with other chemicals such as mustard gas may have had many.
To further regulate exposures, strict limits on the amount of nerve agent allowed in tests were imposed after Maddison died. The levels of exposure typically experienced by servicemen induced: pinpoint pupils (miosis), headaches, a tightness in the chest and vomiting. These symptoms recur many times in the records, as does documentation of the drugs used to treat them, typically atropine and pralidoxime.
A new era
Despite the range of agents which have been developed, chemical weapons have rarely been used by states in conflict, perhaps held back by adherence to the Chemical Weapons Convention or by their difficulty of use.
Despite this they were used by Iraq (not then bound by the CWC) in the Iran-Iraq war (1980-88), who used mustard gas and tabun against Iranian troops. They have also been used by states against civilians – for example by Iraq against its Kurdish population and more than once by Syria against its civilian population between 2014 and 2020.
In 2017, North Korean agents used VX to assassinate Kim Jong-nam, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un’s half-brother in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. And more recently the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny was poisoned with a nerve agent. He later recovered only to die in a Russian prison in early 2024.
These are not just remote threats. As I previously noted, a particularly high-profile example of a state using a chemical weapon to kill someone took place in the UK in 2018 when it is alleged that the Russian state tried to kill an ex-KGB spy using small quantities of the then new and especially toxic nerve agent Novichok.
Sergei Skripal, the intended victim, and his daughter Yulia survived the attack.
A public inquiry heard how the Skripals were found slumped in a park in Salisbury. While the presence of nerve agents was not at first suspected, the emergency services noted how the Skripals suffered from a range of symptoms including pinprick pupils, muscle spasms and vomiting. For those experienced with nerve agents these symptoms are typical.
But these symptoms were not known to Nick Bailey, a detective sergeant who had been assigned to check over a house in Salisbury, home to the two people that had recently been found collapsed. This should have been routine but the first indication to DS Bailey that something was amiss was when he looked in the mirror.
His pupils, normally wide open at this time of night, had shrunk into pinpricks. He was also beginning to feel very strange. But it was when Bailey’s vision fractured and he vomited that he knew something was seriously wrong.
It would later become clear that the agents sent to kill Skripal had sprayed the liquid nerve agent onto the door handle of the Skripal house. Sergei and his daughter both used the handle and were poisoned. So was Bailey, who had closed the door and locked it after his checks on the house later that evening.
Four months later, the boyfriend of Dawn Sturgess found a discarded perfume bottle in nearby Amesbury, picked it up and then later gave it to her as a present. Neither could have imagined it had been used to bring Novichok to Salisbury and left behind by the attackers. Sturgess died after spraying the contents onto her skin. Her boyfriend survived.
It was in partnership with experts at Porton Down that the local health services were able to treat the victims. According to the inquiry, a key challenge was for the hospital to work out what had poisoned the Skripals so they could treat them effectively. Porton Down worked nonstop to determine what type of nerve agent had been used. Once the cause was known the hospital was able to save the Skripals’ lives.
That Porton Down is situated just a few miles from Salisbury where the Novichok attack took place was probably useful to those treating victims. The Russian state however, used this proximity to try to muddy the waters of accountability for the poisoning, but there seems little doubt that blame for the nerve agent poisoning lies with Russia.
Despite the efforts of those agents, five out six people poisoned with Novichok survived, not unscathed perhaps, but alive. That they did so is in some way the result of the expertise and knowledge gained over years of nerve agent research at Porton Down.
It seems clear that the more information about the effects of nerve agent exposure that are known outside specialist research circles the better. Though nerve agent attack is extremely rare the events in Salisbury and Amesbury have shown they are not impossible.
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The research study that took Thomas Keegan to Porton Down was led by the University of Oxford and funded by the Medical Research Council.
After months of wrangling over public debt and spending decisions, the German government collapsed in November 2024. Among the many disagreements between the parties which made up the governing coalition was how to pay for measures to combat climate change.
Seeking to take advantage of disillusioned voters (who in recent years showed record support for the Greens), populist parties have since cast doubt on the idea of tackling environmental issues at all.
Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), for example, the rightwing party which denies the existence of man-made climate change, has raised concerns about energy security and the economic cost of green alternatives.
If the AfD’s broader aim was to take green issues off the political agenda, the plan appears to be working. In the run-up to the general election on February 23 2025, migration and the economy are the most important issues for voters (each on 34%), with climate change lagging far behind (13%).
Nor has the environment been a priority in the parties’ election campaigns. In the first TV debate between the chancellor, the social democrat Olaf Scholz, and his most likely successor, the conservative Friedrich Merz, the topic was ignored almost entirely. A lack of political will and fear of losing voters appear to have relegated environmental policies to the sidelines.
Others want it back at the top of the agenda. Germany’s foreign intelligence service, for example, describes the climate crisis as one of the major risks facing the country, alongside terrorism and war.
Business associations have urged the next government to address climate change mitigation for the sake of German jobs. The Federation of German Industries has demanded an increase in public spending on climate change of as much as €70 billion (£58 billion). Younger voters have called for a nationwide protest to bring the subject back into politicians’ minds.
So have German voters really become sceptical about dealing with climate change?
In a recent study, we found that people who planned to vote for the AfD and the leftwing populist BSW party are indeed sceptical of the need for far-reaching climate policies.
Among voters of these two parties, only 23% (AfD) and 41% (BSW) think that an energy transition is necessary to achieve national climate goals. For Green party voters that figure is 93%, and for SDP supporters it’s 83%.
Voters across the political spectrum have different priorities when it comes to energy supply. For populist party supporters, energy costs trump everything, with only 12% of AfD and 20% of BSW voters considering low emissions important.
These voters are also less likely to assume the energy transition would have positive effects on jobs, and are more likely to fear rising energy costs and security of supply. In short, they are afraid of the social and economic consequences of the energy transition. It is this fear that the far right appears to have been able to mobilise.
Climate costs
Our results are backed up by other research which shows that poorer voters are concerned about the potential costs associated with net zero ambitions.
There is also uncertainty about the possible effects on employment. Many people in Germany believe there will be job losses in their local community as a result of the transition to green energy, and 25% worry they will lose their job.
While these results may seem gloomy, we also found majority support – even among AfD voters – for climate change policies where communities benefit financially from local renewable energy projects, and where citizens feel they have more of a voice in how the energy transition comes into effect.
People want to be heard and participate in a potential transformation. Previous research in psychology has shown that participating in processes and a perception of fairness can increase acceptance.
Research also shows that people fear the effects of climate policies on their personal finances, and that these perceived costs inhibit environmentally friendly behaviour.
But the climate crisis won’t go away, no matter who governs Germany in the coming years. More “once-in-a-century” floods and droughts will hit the nation and bring the climate crisis back to the top of the political agenda.
When this happens, politicians need to ensure they have a positive and credible vision of the future ready to present to voters – where the costs are shared fairly. This will make it harder for populist parties to play on economic worries, and easier to persuade German voters to prioritise the climate crisis.
Vera Trappmann receives funding from Hans Böckler Foundation
Felix Schulz receives funding from the Hans-Böckler-Foundation.
Talking about climate change is never easy. The issue is complex and upsetting. Headlines bring bad news way more often than good ones.
Techniques based on the extensive analysis of theories and research from social psychology, sociology, environmental and media studies can pave the way for a consistent approach to climate action commitment and citizen empowerment.
Here are five ways to communicate climate stories in a way that keeps people engaged and motivated to take positive action.
1. Give people agency
According to the seminal research published in 1974 by the Canadian-American social psychologist Albert Bandura, humans are capable creatures who can overcome fears and lead happier, motivated lives when led correctly. He conducted a famous experiment with people who were afraid of snakes.
In one scenario, an assistant was holding a snake in their hands or keeping it in a cage, while the scared person was watching. In another scenario, the person was given a snake to hold, in a controlled environment, with the assistants eager to take the snake back at any signs of the person’s discomfort. Bandura discovered that looking at someone holding a glossy, hissy reptile did not improve one’s sense of empowerment much.
However, actually handling the scary creature allowed people to feel more in control – and more likely to overcome their fear. This approach is known for boosting people’s sense of agency. By tackling the problem with one modest action at a time, a person is likely to become more reassured in their capacity to challenge larger issues.
In terms of climate communication, we need to be able to control at least small bits of the situation in order to be psychologically equipped to tackle bigger challenges. Climate communicators can give practical suggestions on lifestyle amendments, feasible activism techniques, political involvement – to nourish the sense of empowerment in the audience.
2. Localise the issue
While researching for my new book, Effective Climate Communication, I discovered that many countries with fewer resources struggle to present local stories related to climate change. They tend to rely on the western agenda of UN climate summits or global reports.
The shortage of correspondents on the ground (see studies on Sub-Saharan Africa, Nigeria and South Africa, countries in South America and Asia), makes many media in the developing countries ignore the very local consequences of the global heating. When people are less prepared for extreme weather, they’ll be less empowered to demand change from their governments or invest in weather-resilient crops and other prevention techniques.
By capturing perspectives from the local businesses and scientists, people can talk more easily about the direct effects of climate change on the local environment.
For instance, Greenpeace Indonesia focused on three themes on their Instagram page: the imagery of floods and humans affected, the call to switch to renewable energy, and the argument against the “omnibus” bill, which allows coal companies renew their licenses easily every ten years.
Connecting the local impact of climate change with the possible solution – reducing coal mining – brought a considerable number of clicks and comments to the stories. Although the link between Instagram and public opinion is hard to prove, the omnibus bill is still widely contested by Indonesian society.
3. Make stories relatable
Unless you’re called Elon Musk, Bill Gates (the co-founder of Microsoft) or Ursula von der Leyen (president of the European Commission), you don’t have a direct control over the management of climate change at a global level. Yet, it would be amazing to hear more stories of people who may be giving up long-haul flights, rejecting meat and divesting their pension from the fossil fuel funds. There are so many stories that can be told to inspire feelings of connection and hope.
Stories must be made relatable to engage a wider audience in positive climate conversations. fizkes/Shutterstock
According to classic “social proof” theory, if we can be sure that any new behaviour is the social norm, then we’ll be more eager to change. The moment people consider that refraining from eating meat, flying and buying unnecessary stuff are common patterns in their social circles, they will find it easier to follow suit, as shown by this study on the flying intentions of Germans, or research on the effect of social communities on pro-climate decisions in Europe.
4. Avoid ‘doomism’
Watching thrillers about the end of the world on the TV screen can be escapist and weirdly soothing. But witnessing the apocalypse unfold in front of us, through multiple news notifications and social media posts, is less gratifying. The narratives that compare climate change to the end of the humanity are supposed to incite action – but more often than not they lead to freeze or withdrawal reactions.
In some newsrooms, the practice of “the three Ds” flourishes in the face of the planetary problem – denial, delay-ism and dismissal. Doomist storytelling opens the doors for fake prophets and self-proclaimed superheroes who promise to fix the problem but end up in populism and scapegoating.
Avoiding doomism allows for “stubborn optimism”, a concept endorsed by Christiana Figueres, the ex-head of the UN climate change convention from 2010 to 2016. It is the dual approach of acknowledging the severity of the issue and the cost of the delays to action, but looking at the present state of affairs as an opportunity to avoid bigger damage and focus on the near-term solutions.
5. Create a new normal
Having a special climate change section within a media publication is a nice sign that the organisation cares about the problem. But how likely are people to click on it just to discover another ambush of negative stories? Including climate references in the majority of stories, from fashion to travel, helps normalise climate change as a backdrop to all aspects of our lives.
There’s no need for preaching. Nobody wants to be patronised for their decision to take a flight to see the family that lives far away. But subtle travel listicles about local destinations, creative meat-free recipes or an imaginative reinvention of fashion advice as restyling, not buying, can offer up alternatives in creative ways.
It should not be a taboo topic at dinner parties or social events. Avoid “othering” the climate change issue and help people stay aware and committed to tackling the elements of it.
Being aware of climate change as a new norm is healthier than trying to push it away and deny it’s happening. Engagement with the biggest story of our time is the best catalyst for change that we have.
Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Anastasia Denisova does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Ahead of the election on February 23, many German voters are deeply concerned about the economy – and for good reason. The German economy is in a recession and has been shrinking for two consecutive years. In fact, it is now about the same size as it was in 2019, even as some of its peers among the world’s advanced economies have experienced solid growth (on the left of the chart below).
This matters for voters, who have experienced stagnating real incomes and remain pessimistic – expecting real incomes to decline further.
GDP and productivity growth of Germany, UK and US:
There could be several reasons for Germany’s economic malaise. First, fiscal policy in Germany is tighter than in other countries, meaning higher taxes and lower public spending. Due to the “debt brake” enshrined in its constitution, Germany is severely restricted in running budget deficits, except when the government declares an emergency, as it did due to COVID.
The last coalition government collapsed over a dispute about whether to declare another emergency over the war in Ukraine in order to increase borrowing capacity. This did not happen, and as a result Germany’s fiscal deficit has remained relatively moderate. The argument goes that a larger deficit might have boosted economic growth.
Second, for decades, Germany has relied on foreign demand to sustain economic growth at home. During the first two decades of the 21st century, it benefited greatly from China’s integration into the world economy.
To build up its productive capacity, China relied heavily on machinery produced in Germany and it purchased a significant number of German cars. However, this is no longer the case. As China has moved to the technology frontier, it no longer depends as much on German cars or machinery.
However, both factors only go so far in accounting for the stagnating German economy. For if demand – domestic or foreign – is too weak to sustain growth, this should be reflected in falling prices.
Yet prices have been rising strongly. Inflation in Germany has been running high over the last couple of years.
And it has not been systematically lower than in, say, the US or the rest of the euro area. Over the next 12 months, households expect inflation to be above 3% – well above the European Central Bank’s 2% target.
Another relevant indicator also suggests that lack of demand is unlikely to be the main reason for Germany’s stagnation. Unemployment is low in Germany, lower than in most European countries and hardly higher than in 2019.
Instead, adverse supply conditions are key, as reflected in households’ expectations of falling incomes and higher inflation.
Overall, supply is simply the combination of labour and capital inputs (for example, the size of the workforce and the machinery or premises available to them) along with productivity or technology, which tells us how much output we get from the labour and capital inputs. Germany is facing a triple crisis in this regard – expensive energy, weak labour supply and low productivity growth.
First, there are energy prices, which have been pushed up everywhere by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, the effect has been particularly strong in Germany due to its direct dependency on Russian gas.
The outgoing government, in which the Greens have been a key player, is widely credited with trying to accelerate Germany’s green transition. This raised the costs of the transition above those caused by the European Emissions Trading System, whereby polluters pay for their emissions.
While it is difficult to determine the exact contributions of the war and the green transition to the rise in energy prices, both clearly act as a drag on growth, particularly on the supply side (that is to say, production potential).
The productivity problem
But Germany faces more fundamental supply-side challenges. The second issue becomes apparent when comparing GDP per hour worked (a measure of a country’s productivity, as seen on the right of the chart above).
Here, the trends in Germany and the UK are quite similar, implying that Germany’s lower economic growth relative to the UK is primarily due to people working fewer hours. This, in turn, may reflect demographic changes, migration that does not contribute to the labour force or shifting preferences in the wake of COVID.
The third issue is productivity growth. Consider the increase in GDP per hour worked in the US, which has risen by more than 10% as shown in the chart above, dwarfing the developments in both Germany and the UK. Common causes of weak productivity growth include ageing infrastructure, low private sector investment, a lack of start-ups and fewer new companies growing into multinational leaders.
A turnaround requires far-reaching improvements in supply conditions. In terms of energy, Germany should avoid measures such as introducing more regulation on the heating or insulation of new and existing homes, and instead rely on the EU-wide emissions trading scheme to curb emissions.
In the labour market, increased participation or skilled migration is needed, supported by policies that encourage people to retire later and entice more women into the workforce.
Productivity growth remains the most challenging issue. A good start would be increased funding for universities and reduced regulation, particularly for AI technology.
Deepening the EU’s single market, for example by removing restrictions on cross-border energy trade to allow firms to access cheaper electricity, would enhance competition and drive productivity growth. This way, companies could expand and create well-paying jobs.
Finally, an additional boost may come from higher defence spending, not only to address the much-needed improvement of Germany’s external security but also because it has been shown to increase productivity.
While immigration may be a major talking point for the German electorate in the coming vote, the economy – as ever – will be an important factor in measuring the mood of the country.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: United States Senator Ted Budd (R-North Carolina)
Washington, D.C. — Today, Senators Ted Budd (R-NC), Mark Warner (D-VA), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Tim Kaine (D-VA) sent a letter to Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum, urging these departments to quickly allocate funding appropriated by Congress for public lands that were ravaged by Hurricane Helene.
Read the text of the letter:
We write today regarding our states’ recovery from Hurricane Helene and the supplemental funding made available to the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and Department of the Interior (DOI) by the American Relief Act of 2025 (H.R.10545). We urge you to expeditiously allocate this funding to our public lands in North Carolina and Virginia that were ravaged by this deadly storm.
Hurricane Helene devastated communities across North Carolina, Virginia, and large swaths of the Southeast. Historic flooding and high winds resulted in over a hundred deaths, damaged and destroyed thousands of homes and businesses, and decimated critical regional infrastructure in our states. Additionally, the storm caused unprecedented damage to public lands in western North Carolina and Southwest Virginia that are essential drivers of economic activity for many communities.
Public lands managed by USDA and DOI are crucial economic engines for communities throughout western North Carolina and Southwest Virginia. For example, the National Park Service’s (NPS) most visited unit, the Blue Ridge Parkway, which spans 469 miles across the Blue Ridge Mountains in North Carolina and Virginia, supports the economies of dozens of communities in our states. In 2023, 16.7 million visitors spent nearly $1.4 billion in communities surrounding the Parkway, which supported over 19,000 jobs. Helene decimated the Blue Ridge Parkway resulting in indefinite closures along large portions of the roadway and damage to many trails, historical sites, and recreational areas. The recovery effort for the Parkway will be one of the most significant and expensive infrastructure projects in the park’s history, and its success will be essential for the dozens of gateway communities that rely on the Parkway.
In addition to National Park Service managed property, many of our communities in Southwest Virginia and western North Carolina contain U.S. Forest Service lands that were decimated by Hurricane Helene. This includes the George Washington and Jefferson National Forests in Virginia, the Cherokee National Forest in Tennessee and North Carolina, and the Nantahala and Pisgah National Forests in western North Carolina. These lands attract millions of visitors each year who contribute millions more in visitor spending that sustains countless small businesses and gateway communities.
Perhaps no Forest Service asset in the country suffered more damage from Hurricane Helene than the Virginia Creeper Trail, a 34-mile recreational trail that is co-managed by the Forest Service and the towns of Damascus and Abingdon in Southwest Virginia. The storm obliterated 18 miles of the Creeper Trail from Damascus to Whitetop, Virginia, destroying 18 trestles and washing away extended segments of the trail itself. The Creeper Trail is the most significant driver of economic activity in Damascus and one of the most significant tourism destinations in the entire region. The trail attracts more than 200,000 visitors annually, supporting local bike shops, restaurants, and lodging. In all, the Creeper Trail contributes nearly $13 million annually in tourism spending to the region’s economy. A prolonged closure of the trail could have devastating consequences for Damascus and the entire region. It is critical that USDA and the Forest Service move quickly to allocate appropriated funding to rebuild the Creeper Trail to ensure Damascus and other localities that depend on the trail can fully recover from Helene.
We were pleased the American Relief Act of 2025 (H.R.10545) included robust funding to address natural disaster-related damage to public lands across the U.S., including $6.4 billion for the U.S. Forest Service and $2.3 billion for the National Park Service. This funding is intended to support the rebuilding of iconic public attractions in our states, including the Blue Ridge Parkway, Appalachian Trail, and Virginia Creeper Trail. It will also support a broad range of other reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts on our public lands to ensure they can continue to safely provide recreational opportunities to our constituents and millions of additional visitors who help sustain these Appalachian communities. As our states continue to rebuild from Hurricane Helene, it is critical that this supplemental funding is deployed to our public lands swiftly to ensure a timely rebuild of these assets that our communities depend on.
Thank you for your attention to this matter. We look forward to working with you to support the recovery efforts in our states. Please do not hesitate to reach out if we can provide additional information or assistance.
Headline: N.C. Arts Council Awards $915,000 to Western N.C. Arts Organizations for Helene Recovery
N.C. Arts Council Awards $915,000 to Western N.C. Arts Organizations for Helene Recovery jejohnson6
The North Carolina Arts Council has awarded $915,000 to nonprofit arts organizations in Western North Carolina affected by Hurricane Helene. The grants utilize funds from the North Carolina Arts Foundation’s North Carolina Arts Relief Fund, the National Endowment for the Arts, and South Art’s Southern Arts Relief and Recovery Fund.
The relief funds will be provided to 69 arts organizations throughout the impacted 26-county region. A list of awardees is available on the NCAC’s website (https://www.ncarts.org/hurricane-helene-relief-grant-award-recipients-2025/open).
“This much-needed grant funding for Western North Carolina arts organizations signals another important step in the North Carolina Department of Natural and Cultural Resources’ commitment to recovery in areas affected by Hurricane Helene,” said Arts Council Director Jeff Bell. “The cultural and arts offerings in Western North Carolina are vital to the heritage and economic strength of our entire state.”
The grants support artistic and administrative functions of Western N.C. arts organizations. Recipients may use them to fund salaries, artists’ fees, production, travel, promotion, programming expenses, supplies and equipment, office expenses, and facility operations.
About the North Carolina Department of Natural and Cultural Resources The N.C. Department of Natural and Cultural Resources (DNCR) manages, promotes, and enhances the things that people love about North Carolina – its diverse arts and culture, rich history, and spectacular natural areas. Through its programs, the department enhances education, stimulates economic development, improves public health, expands accessibility, and strengthens community resiliency.
The department manages over 100 locations across the state, including 27 historic sites, seven history museums, two art museums, five science museums, four aquariums, 35 state parks, four recreation areas, dozens of state trails and natural areas, the North Carolina Zoo, the State Library, the State Archives, the N.C. Arts Council, the African American Heritage Commission, the American Indian Heritage Commission, the State Historic Preservation Office, the Office of State Archaeology, the Highway Historical Markers program, the N.C. Land and Water Fund, and the Natural Heritage Program. For more information, please visit www.dncr.nc.gov.
Source: The White House
President Donald J. Trump took office just one month ago, but has already accomplished more than most presidents do in their entire term as he makes good on his promise to usher in the New Golden Age of America.
Here is a non-comprehensive list of President Trump’s wins after just one month:
SECURING OUR HOMELAND:
President Trump declared a national emergency at the border and deployed the military, including the 10th Mountain Division, to secure our nation.
Illegal border crossings have hit lows not seen in decades as U.S. Border Patrol is re-empowered to once again enforce the law.
ABC News: “From Jan. 21 through Jan. 31, the number of U.S. Border Patrol apprehensions along the southwest border dropped 85% from the same period in 2024, according to data obtained by ABC News. In the 11 days after Jan. 20, migrants apprehended at ports of entry declined by 93%.”
Illegal aliens have started turning around in droves amid the crackdown.
The Department of Homeland Security announced that arrests of criminal illegal immigrants have doubled under President Trump.
President Trump signed the Laken Riley Act into law, which requires illegal immigrants arrested or charged with theft or violence to be detained — honoring the legacy of Laken Riley, a Georgia college student brutally murdered by an illegal alien released into the country.
President Trump ended “catch-and-release,” reversing the dangerous Biden-era policy that released dangerous illegal aliens back into our communities.
President Trump shut down the “CBP One” app, which “paroled” more than one million illegal immigrants into the country.
A migrant shelter in San Diego announced it will shut down after it has received no new arrivals since President Trump took office.
President Trump terminated all taxpayer-funded public benefits for illegal aliens.
President Trump ramped up deportation flights of criminal illegal aliens.
After President Trump announced “urgent and decisive retaliatory measures” against Colombia over its refusal to accept deportation flights from the U.S., the country’s president quickly backtracked — even offering the use of his personal plane for the deportations.
El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele offered to accept deportees of any nationality, including violent American criminals currently imprisoned in the U.S.
President Trump began transferring criminal illegal aliens to Guantanamo Bay ahead of their repatriation back to their own countries.
President Trump re-established the successful “Remain in Mexico” policy.
President Trump restarted construction of the border wall.
The Trump Administration officially declared Tren de Aragua, MS-13, the Sinaloa Cartel, the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, the United Cartels, the Gulf Cartel, the Northeast Cartel, and the Michoacán Family as Foreign Terrorist Organizations.
New York City Mayor Eric Adams (D) agreed to allow federal immigration officials to operate on Rikers Island and deport illegal alien criminals following his meeting with Border Czar Tom Homan.
Mexico announced a deployment of 10,000 troops to the border to combat illegal immigration and fentanyl trafficking, while Canada announced a flurry of measures to combat fentanyl manufacturing and trafficking following President Trump’s imposition of tariffs on the two countries.
President Trump implemented an additional 10% tariff on imports from China in order to stem the flow of illegal aliens and fentanyl.
President Trump ordered an end to birthright citizenship.
President Trump suspended the U.S. Refugee Admissions Program.
The Department of Justice filed suit against the State of New York and some of its elected officials over their willful failure to follow federal immigration law and announced that it will take action against so-called “sanctuary cities” for their obstruction of U.S. law.
The Department of Homeland Security “clawed back” tens of millions of dollars in funds paid by rogue FEMA officials to house illegal aliens in luxury New York City hotels.
President Trump reinstated the death penalty for federal capital crimes.
PROTECTING AMERICAN WORKERS AND FOSTERING ECONOMIC GROWTH:
President Trump restored a 25% tariff on steel imports and elevated the tariff to 25% on aluminum imports to protect these critical American industries from unfair foreign competition — a move praised by the Steel Manufacturers Association, the Aluminum Association, and businesses across the country.
Robert Simon, CEO of JSW Steel USA, praised President Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, celebrating them “as a project that will flood the U.S. with jobs as trading partners move their industries to U.S. soil to avoid tariffs.”
Makoto Uchida, the CEO of global automaker Nissan, said President Trump’s tariffs could push the car manufacturer to move its production from Mexico to the U.S.
President Trump unveiled a plan for fair and reciprocal trade, making clear to the world that the United States will no longer tolerate being ripped off.
President Trump secured hundreds of billions of dollars in new investments.
President Trump announced the largest artificial intelligence infrastructure project in history, securing $500 billion in planned private sector investment — with major CEOs agreeing it would not have been possible without President Trump’s leadership.
Saudi Arabia declared its intention to invest $600 billion in the United States over the next four years.
President Trump secured a $20 billion investment by DAMAC Properties to build new U.S.-based data centers.
Taiwan pledged to boost its investment in the United States.
Electronics giants Samsung and LG “are considering moving their plants in Mexico to the U.S.” now that President Trump is back in office.
In February, forecasters from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia revised their economic growth projections for the first quarter of 2025 up from 1.9% to 2.5%, and their unemployment rate projections for the quarter down from 4.2% to 4.1%.
After a meeting with President Trump, Stellantis announced it will reopen its assembly plant in Belvidere, Illinois — putting 1,500 employees back to work — and build its next-generation Dodge Durango in Detroit, Michigan. The company also announced new investments in their Toledo, Ohio, and Kokomo, Indiana, facilities.
President Trump laid out a visionary plan to establish a Sovereign Wealth Fund to maximize the stewardship of the $5+ trillion in assets held by the United States.
Following President Trump’s victory, the S&P 500 set a new record as the stock market surged to record highs — while major Wall Street firms like JP Morgan Chase posted their highest ever annual profits.
LOWERING THE COST OF LIVING:
President Trump directed the heads of all executive departments and agencies to “deliver emergency price relief … to the American people and increase the prosperity of the American worker.”
President Trump established the National Energy Dominance Council to maximize use of the U.S.’ extensive energy resources, thereby enabling lower energy prices.
Crude oil prices have fallen over 5% since President Trump took office.
The Department of Energy postponed burdensome Biden-era efficiency standard rules for the following appliances, saving American consumers large sums:
Central air conditioners: Biden rules were slated to make air conditioners $1,100 more expensive, according to Alliance for Consumers.
Gas water heaters: Biden rules were slated to make water heaters $2,800 more expensive.
Clothes washers and dryers: Biden rules were slated to make washers $200 more expensive.
Light bulbs: Biden rules were slated to make light bulbs $140 more expensive.
Walk-in coolers and freezers, commercial refrigeration equipment, and air compressors.
The total cost of federal regulations in 2023 was a record-breaking $2.1 trillion, or $15,788 per U.S. household, according to the Competitive Enterprise Institute. By requiring agencies to identify at least ten existing rules, regulations, or guidance documents to be repealed for every one rule they promulgate, President Trump has put the U.S. on track to severely reduce regulatory costs for everyday Americans.
The National Associations of Manufacturers found the cost of federal regulations was even greater — at $3.079 trillion in 2022.
Secretary Sean Duffy’s very first action at the Department of Transportation was to initiate rulemaking resetting Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards — effectively eliminating the Biden-era electric vehicle mandate.
NBER economist Mark R. Jacobsen “estimates that a one-mpg increase in CAFE standards costs consumers of all income levels approximately 0.5% of their income in the first year of the increase. By the 10th year following the increase, however, this cost becomes regressive, as the increase drives up the price of used cars. A one-mpg increase in CAFE standards costs consumers earning less than $25,000 per year 1.12% of their income, but only costs consumers earning more than $75,000 per year 0.41% of their income.”
RE-ESTABLISHING AMERICAN STRENGTH:
President Trump secured the release of six American hostages in Venezuela, two Americans in Afghanistan, an American-Israeli citizen in Hamas captivity, a Pennsylvania teacher in Russian captivity, and an American citizen in Belarus — bringing the total number of American hostages released under President Trump to 11.
President Trump spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in pursuit of finally securing peace as negotiations get underway.
President Trump restored maximum pressure on Iran, “sanctioning an international network for facilitating the shipment of millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the People’s Republic of China.”
President Trump redesignated the Iran-backed Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
President Trump hosted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a visit where he proposed a bold vision for securing lasting peace in Gaza.
Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman described the proposal as “brilliant, historic and the only idea I have heard in 50 years that has a chance of bringing security, peace and prosperity to this troubled region.”
President Trump hosted Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who announced his intention to “elevate Japan’s investment in the United States to an unprecedented amount of $1 trillion,” import “historic” quantities of LNG from Alaska, and open new auto plants in the U.S.
President Trump hosted Jordan’s King Abdullah II, who announced that the Kingdom will accept 2,000 sick children from Gaza “as quickly as possible.”
President Trump hosted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for a visit where they announced new deals between the two countries on immigration, trade, energy, and artificial intelligence.
President Trump banned funding to UNRWA — a United Nations agency that employed hundreds of Hamas and jihad operatives.
President Trump imposed sanctions on the International Criminal Court, which has illegitimately asserted jurisdiction over internal U.S. matters and baselessly targeted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
President Trump reinstated the Mexico City Policy to ensure no taxpayer dollars support foreign organizations that perform, or actively promote, abortion in other nations.
The Department of State ordered embassies worldwide to only fly the American flag — not activist flags.
President Trump declared all foreign policy must be conducted under the President’s direction, ensuring career diplomats reflect the foreign policy of the United States at all times.
The Department of State declared that U.S. foreign policy will be America First going forward.
Following a visit from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino agreed to withdraw from China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a debt-trap diplomacy scheme the Chinese Communist Party uses to gain influence over developing nations.
The U.S. rejoined the Geneva Consensus Declaration, which promotes and strengthens opportunities for women and girls around the world, and protects the family as the fundamental unit of society.
President Trump cracked down on anti-Semitism by canceling visas for foreign students who are Hamas sympathizers.
President Trump ordered the immediate dismissal of the Board of Visitors for the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Coast Guard following years of woke ideologies infiltrating U.S. service academies.
The U.S. Army barred transgender people from enlisting and stopped using taxpayer funds for sex change surgeries.
President Trump reinstated, with backpay, U.S. service members who were discharged under the military’s nonsensical COVID-19 vaccine mandate.
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth restored Fort Liberty, North Carolina, to “Fort Bragg,” in honor of a World War II hero.
President Trump withdrew the U.S. from the World Health Organization.
President Trump paused enforcement of the overregulation of American businesses abroad, which negatively impacted national security.
President Trump proclaimed “Gulf of America Day” after the Department of the Interior officially established it on its mapping databases.
President Trump initiated a process to build a next-generation missile defense shield over the United States.
UNLEASHING AMERICAN ENERGY:
President Trump declared a National Energy Emergency to unlock America’s full energy potential and bring down costs for American families.
President Trump rescinded every one of the Biden Administration’s job-killing, pro-China, anti-American energy regulations.
President Trump empowered Americans with choice in vehicles, showerheads, toilets, washing machines, light bulbs, and dishwashers, and killed Biden-era regulations that restricted water flow and mandated inadequate light bulb standards.
President Trump terminated the job-killing Green New Scam.
President Trump withdrew from the disastrous Paris Climate Agreement, which unfairly ripped off our country.
President Trump paused federal permitting for massive wind farms, which degrade our natural landscapes and fail to serve American consumers.
President Trump reversed bureaucratic regulations that impeded Alaska’s ability to develop its vast natural resources.
President Trump re-opened 625 million acres for offshore drilling, which Biden banned in his waning days, in order to “drill, baby, drill.”
President Trump scrapped an Obama-era rule on greenhouse gases.
President Trump ended the Liquefied Natural Gas pause and approved the first LNG project since the Biden Administration banned them last year.
BRINGING BACK COMMON SENSE:
Health systems across the nation stopped or downsized their sex change programs for minors following President Trump’s “Protecting Children from Chemical and Surgical Mutilation” executive order.
In Illinois, Chicago’s Lurie Children’s Hospital paused sex-change surgeries for patients under 19 as it “work[s] to understand the rapidly evolving environment.”
In Colorado, Denver Health announced it would stop performing sex change surgeries on minor children, while UCHealth said it was ending so-called “gender-affirming care” for all minors.
In Washington, D.C., Children’s National Hospital “paused” prescribing puberty blockers and hormone therapies for minors, while Northwest Washington Hospital did the same.
In Virginia, VCU Health and Children’s Hospital of Richmond “suspended” providing transgender-related medication and surgeries for minors, while UVA Health also “suspended” transgender-related services for minors.
President Trump ended the unfair, demeaning practice of forcing women to compete against men in sports — which resulted in the NCAA changing its rules.
The Department of Education launched investigations into the California Interscholastic Federation and the Minnesota State High School League over their failures to comply.
President Trump made it the official policy of the U.S. government that there are only two sexes.
President Trump banned COVID-19 vaccine mandates at schools that receive federal funding.
President Trump rolled back the Biden-era push to mandate paper straws.
President Trump instructed the Secretary of the Treasury to stop production of the penny, which cost 3.69 cents each to make.
President Trump directed full enforcement of the Hyde Amendment, which bars taxpayer dollars from being used to fund or promote elective abortion.
The Department of Transportation terminated the approval for New York City’s burdensome “congestion pricing” scheme.
RESTORING ACCOUNTABILITY AND TRANSPARENCY IN GOVERNMENT
President Trump established the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to maximize government productivity and ensure the best use of taxpayer funds — which has already achieved billions of dollars in savings for taxpayers.
President Trump commenced his plan to downsize the federal bureaucracy and eliminate waste, bloat, and insularity.
President Trump ordered federal workers to return to the office five days a week.
President Trump ordered federal agencies hire no more than one employee for every four employees who leave.
President Trump ended the wasteful Federal Executive Institute, which had become a training ground for bureaucrats.
President Trump ordered the termination of all federal Fake News media contracts.
President Trump ordered the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — the brainchild of Elizabeth Warren, which funneled cash to left-wing advocacy groups — to halt operations.
President Trump ordered an end to anti-Christian bias in the Federal Government.
President Trump ordered an examination of all regulations to assess any infringements on Americans’ Second Amendment rights.
The Environmental Protection Agency canceled tens of millions of dollars in contracts to left-wing advocacy groups, announced an investigation into a scheme by Biden EPA staffers to shield billions of dollars from oversight and accountability, and put 168 “environmental justice” employees on leave.
President Trump stopped the waste, fraud, and abuse within USAID — ensuring taxpayers are no longer on the hook for funding the pet projects of entrenched bureaucrats, such as sex changes in Guatemala.
President Trump ordered an end to the weaponization of the Federal Government against American citizens.
The Department of Justice immediately began rooting out politically motivated lawfare that occurred in the Biden Administration.
President Trump reversed the massive over-expansion of the IRS that took place during the Biden Administration.
President Trump eliminated discriminatory DEI offices, employees, and practices across the bureaucracy alongside a return to merit-based hiring — including at the Federal Aviation Administration, where the Biden Administration specifically recruited individuals with intellectual disabilities and psychiatric issues.
As a result, taxpayer-funded PBS closed its DEI office, Disney dropped two of its DEI programs, Goldman Sachs ended its DEI policy, and Institutional Shareholder Services announced it would no longer consider diversity of company boards when making its voting recommendations.
The Federal Communications Commission opened an investigation into discriminatory DEI policies at Comcast, an entity it regulates.
President Trump ordered an end to all censorship of Americans by the federal government.
President Trump ordered a review of funding for all non-governmental organizations, so taxpayers are no longer funding those that undermine America’s interests.
The Department of State issued a “pause” on existing foreign aid grants to ensure accountability and efficiency.
President Trump lifted last-minute collective bargaining agreements issued by the Biden Administration, which sought to impede reform.
President Trump overrode bureaucratic red tape that limited water availability in California following the failure of the state’s water system during the devastating wildfires.
President Trump terminated the Biden-era electric vehicle mandate.
President Trump suspended the Biden-era EV charging program, which had resulted in just eight charging stations despite $7.5 billion earmarked for the program.
President Trump shut down the wasteful Biden-era “Climate Corps” program.
The Federal Communications Commission took action against a Soros-backed radio station that leaked sensitive information about ICE operations.
President Trump ordered the declassification of documents related to the assassinations of President John F. Kennedy, Jr., Robert F. Kennedy, and Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
President Trump opened the White House Press Briefing Room to non-legacy media outlets as the White House sets a new standard for transparency in the digital age.
President Trump reinstated press privileges for roughly 440 journalists who the Biden Administration sought to silence.
President Trump fired members of The Kennedy Center’s Board of Trustees amid their obsession with perpetuating radical, left-wing ideology at taxpayer expense.
President Trump revoked the security clearances of the 51 “spies who lied.”
EMPOWERING THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
President Trump established the Make America Healthy Again Commission, which redirects the national focus to promoting health rather than simply managing disease.
President Trump took executive action to expand access to in vitro fertilization (IVF).
President Trump established the White House Faith Office to protect Americans’ religious liberty.
President Trump ordered an end to the radical indoctrination of children in K-12 schools that receive federal funding.
President Trump took executive action to support parents in choosing the best education for their children.
President Trump established the Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets to strengthen U.S. leadership in digital finance.
President Trump granted full and unconditional pardons to 23 pro-life Americans who were unjustly persecuted by the Biden Administration.
President Trump pardoned two Washington, D.C., police officers who were imprisoned simply for doing their jobs of apprehending criminals.
President Trump has had his cabinet confirmed by the Senate at a far faster pace than his predecessors, with a majority of his cabinet earning confirmation in his first month.
Nick Park CBE, four-time Academy Award®-winner and Preston-born creator of Wallace & Gromit, has officially opened the city’s £45m+ Animate entertainment and leisure destination.
The Honorary Freeman of Preston and multi award-winning filmmaker, unveiled a four-foot-high bronze statue of Feathers McGraw, the villainous penguin character in the Wallace & Gromit animated films, to mark the opening, close by to the existing famous Wallace & Gromit bench at Preston Markets.
Nick and Merlin are executive directors and creative directors, respectively, at Bristol-based independent studio Aardman, makers of the Wallace & Gromit films and other beloved brands, including Shaun the Sheep, Creature Comforts, Chicken Run, and Morph.
Nick Park CBE said:
“As a proud Prestonian, I couldn’t be more ‘egg-cited’ to see our infamous Feathers McGraw joining Wallace and Gromit in my hometown.
“I’m not sure how happy Wallace and Gromit will be, though, to have their arch nemesis clutching the limelight.”
Councillor Matthew Brown, Leader at Preston City Council said:
“To have Nick Park officially opening our flagship regeneration scheme, Animate, is a genuine honour and landmark moment for the Council and the city. In addition, the new Feathers McGraw statue is a fantastic complement to the Wallace and Gromit bench, which has drawn so many visitors to Preston – its popularity has blown us away.
“Today heralds a new era for Preston, providing an unrivalled multi-tenanted entertainment and leisure complex for residents and visitors from the wider regionin the ownership of our city.”
Chris Jones, Director at Castle Fine Arts Foundry added:
“It was such an honour for us all at the Foundry to be given the opportunity to depict the deliciously malign Feathers McGraw in bronze, having enjoyed creating Wallace & Gromit a couple of years ago.
“We had felt Feathers ‘wee beady eyes’ upon us in the workshop for a good few months since we completed him, so it was both a relief and a joy to put him where he truly belongs, alongside his arch nemeses in Preston.”
Animate features The Arc Cinema with eight screens, 16-lane Hollywood Bowl bowling alley with gaming zone, public realm, a socialising unit and 164-space basement car park, alongside leading family restaurant brands Ask Italian, Cosmo, Taco Bell, Argento Lounge and a variety of street food outlets and a cocktail bar in Mad Giant Food Hall, run by Northern Lights Group.
Built on the former indoor market and car park site, Animate is fully owned by Preston City Council and is one of six major projects in Preston’s Harris Quarter Towns Fund Investment Programme, a £200m programme including £20.9m of funding by UK Government to support several regeneration projects.
The leisure scheme supports the Council’s commitment to Community Wealth Building – a fair, inclusive and ethical approach to fostering sustainable economic development and prosperity for all in Preston – via measures including using locally based businesses and the creation of approximately 300 full and part-time jobs when fully open and 105 apprenticeship weeks worked throughout the construction period to date.
Projects included in Preston’s £200 million Harris Quarter Towns Fund Investment Programme are:
Animate – £45m multi-use entertainment and leisure complex anchored by a state-of-the-art cinema and bowling venue next to Preston Markets
Educate Preston: The creation of a new Careers and Employment, Information, Advice and Guidance Hub in the Harris Quarter.
Renewal of Harris Quarter Assets: Investment to support the redevelopment of publicly-owned buildings in the Harris Quarter to support new cultural and community uses, including Amounderness House.
Illuminate and Integrate: A project to deliver improved pedestrian and cycleway infrastructure, street lighting and other public realm improvements within the Harris Quarter.
Preston Youth Zone:The development of Preston Youth Zone as a state-of-the-art facility for young people in Preston aged eight to 19.
#HarrisYourPlace:The refurbishment of the Grade I listed Harris Museum, Art Gallery & Library, enhancing and protecting the building for future generations.
Preston Pop Ups: £1m pop-up programme of events bringing together new temporary event space, artworks and improvements to public realm infrastructure, aimed at boosting visitor activity in the Harris Quarter.
MELBOURNE, Fla., Feb. 20, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Orion180, a leading provider of innovative insurance solutions, today announced it has hired former The Hartford executive Chris DiMartino as Chief Underwriting Officer. In this role, DiMartino will be responsible for overseeing all aspects of underwriting, product development and management across its surplus and personal lines of business.
DiMartino brings 27 years of experience in underwriting, actuarial science, and product management in commercial and personal lines P&C insurance. Prior to joining Orion180, he served as senior vice president of insurance services at AAA Northeast and held prominent leadership roles in his 20+ years at The Hartford, most recently serving as Head of Product for its $3 billion personal lines business. DiMartino is a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (FCAS), a Chartered Property Casualty Underwriter (CPCU), and a licensed attorney.
“Bringing Chris on board marks a pivotal step in our company’s evolution,” said Ken Gregg, CEO and Founder of Orion180. “His deep expertise in underwriting and product management will be critical in enhancing our portfolio as we continue to aggressively grow product lines and expand to other States.”
Additionally, Orion180 Chief Operations Officer (COO) Ryan Jesenik has been promoted to President, Insurance. In his expanded role, Jesenik will retain his responsibilities as COO while also leading growth strategy, ensuring daily operations align seamlessly with the company’s long-term goals.
During Jesenik’s tenure as COO, Orion180 has been named to the Inc. 5000 fastest-growing private companies list for two consecutive years, and he helped grow the company to $263M in in-force premium. He also supported the company’s homeowners, FLEX, and private residential flood insurance product launches, and the release of the innovative MY180 app allowing agents to seamlessly create new quotes and manage their book of business.
“Ryan has been instrumental in helping Orion180 become one of the fastest growing home insurance companies in the U.S.,” said Gregg. “I look forward to our continued work together, advancing our vision of offering consumers and agents greater choice and unmatched flexibility to meet their everchanging needs.”
About Orion180 Orion180 is a customer-focused, technology-driven insurance brand that combines proprietary technology, real-time data, and straightforward underwriting practices to provide a seamless and premier insurance experience. Orion180 operates through Orion180 Insurance Co., a surplus lines insurance company serving Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Colorado (Flood only), Tennessee (Flood only), Illinois (Flood only) and Arizona, and Orion180 Select Insurance Co., an admitted insurance company offering coverage in Alabama, Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Ohio. With its proprietary MY180 platform and third-party integrations, Orion180 offers unmatched efficiency and innovation, fulfilling its vision of becoming the global leader in insurance solutions while maintaining its mission to deliver superior customer experiences and a comprehensive suite of products. Connect with Orion180 on X, LinkedIn, Facebook, Instagram, and YouTube. For more information, visit www.Orion180.com.
Five years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, many U.S. cities are still adjusting to a new normal, with more people working remotely and less economic activity in city centers. Other factors, such as underfunded pension plans for municipal employees, are pushing many city budgets into the red.
Urban fiscal struggles are not new, but historically they have mainly affected U.S. cities that are small, poor or saddled with incompetent managers. Today, however, even large cities, including Chicago, Houston and San Francisco, are under serious financial stress.
This is a looming nationwide threat, driven by factors that include climate change, declining downtown activity, loss of federal funds and large pension and retirement commitments.
Spending cuts abound in many U.S. cities as inflation lingers and pandemic-era stimulus dries up.
Why cities struggle
Many U.S. cities have faced fiscal crises over the past century, for diverse reasons. Most commonly, stress occurs after an economic downturn or sharp fall in tax revenues.
Florida municipalities began to default in 1926 after the collapse of a land boom. Municipal defaults were common across the nation in the 1930s during the Great Depression: As unemployment rose, relief burdens swelled and tax collections dwindled.
Declaring bankruptcy was not a cure-all. It allowed cities to refinance debt or stretch out payment schedules, but it also could lead to higher taxes and fees for residents, and lower pay and benefits for city employees. And it could stigmatize a city for many years afterward.
In the 1960s and 1970s, many urban residents and businesses left cities for adjoining suburbs. Many cities, including New York, Cleveland and Philadelphia, found it difficult to repay debts as their tax bases shrank.
The New York Daily News, Oct. 30, 1975, after U.S. President Gerald Ford ruled out providing federal aid to save the city from bankruptcy. Several months later, Ford signed legislation authorizing federal loans. Edward Stojakovic/Flickr, CC BY
In the wake of the 2008-2009 housing market collapse, cities including Detroit, San Bernardino, California, and Stockton, California, filed for bankruptcy. Other cities faced similar difficulties but were located in states that did not allow municipalities to declare bankruptcy.
Even large, affluent jurisdictions could go off the financial rails. For example, Orange County, California, went bankrupt in 2002 after its treasurer, Robert Citron, pursued a risky investment strategy of complex leveraging deals, losing some $1.65 billion in taxpayer funds.
Today, cities face a convergence of rising costs and decreasing revenues in many places. As I see it, the urban fiscal crisis is now a pervasive national challenge.
Events like wildfires and flooding have twofold effects on city finances. First, money has to be spent on rebuilding damaged infrastructure, such as roads, water lines and public buildings. Second, after the disaster, cities may either act on their own or be required under state or federal law to make expensive investments in preparation for the next storm or wildfire.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (center) discusses wildfire recovery in Pacific Palisades, Calif., Jan. 27, 2025. Cleaning up after the wildfires, which destroyed more than 16,000 structures, will include disposing of several million tons of toxic ash and debris. Drew A. Kelley/MediaNews Group/Long Beach Press-Telegram via Getty Images
Increasing uncertainty about the total costs of mitigating and adapting to climate change will inevitably lead rating agencies to downgrade municipal credit ratings. This raises cities’ costs to borrow money for climate-related projects like protecting shorelines and improving wastewater treatment.
Underfunded pensions
Cities also spend a lot of money on employees, and many large cities are struggling to fund pensions and health benefits for their workforces. As municipal retirees live longer and require more health care, the costs are mounting.
For example, Chicago currently faces a budget deficit of nearly $1 billion, which stems partly from underfunded retirement benefits for nearly 30,000 public employees. The city has $35 billion in unfunded pension liabilities and almost $2 billion in unfunded retiree health benefits. Chicago’s teachers are owed $14 billion in unfunded benefits.
Policy studies have shown for years that politicians tend to underfund retirement and pension benefits for public employees. This approach offloads the real cost of providing police, fire protection and education onto future taxpayers.
In my view, President Donald Trump’s administration is highly unlikely to bail out urban areas – especially more liberal cities like Detroit, Philadelphia and San Francisco. Trump has portrayed large cities governed by Democrats in the darkest terms – for example, calling Baltimore a “rodent-infested mess” and Washington, D.C., a “dirty, crime-ridden death trap.” I expect that Trump’s animus against big cities, which was a staple of his 2024 campaign, could become a hallmark of his second term.
Detroit officials respond to disparaging remarks about the city by Donald Trump during a campaign speech in Detroit, Oct. 10, 2024.
Resistance to new taxes
Cities can generate revenue from taxes on sales, businesses, property and utilities. However, increasing municipal taxes – particularly property taxes – can be very difficult.
In 1978, California adopted Proposition 13 – a ballot measure that limited property tax increases to the rate of inflation or 2% per year, whichever is lower. This high-profile campaign created a widespread narrative that property taxes were out of control and made it very hard for local officials to support property tax increases.
Thanks to caps like Prop 13, a persistent public view that taxes are too high and political resistance, property taxes have tended to lag behind inflation in many parts of the country.
The crunch
Taking these factors together, I see a fiscal crunch coming for U.S. cities. Small cities with low budgets are particularly vulnerable. But so are larger, more affluent cities, such as San Francisco with its collapsing downtown office market, or Houston, New York and Miami, which face growing costs from climate change.
Workers in North Miami Beach, Fla., distribute sandbags to residents to help prevent flooding as Hurricane Milton approaches the state on Oct. 8, 2024. AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee
One city manager who runs an affluent municipality in the Pacific Northwest told me that in these difficult circumstances, politicians need to be more frank and open with their constituents and explain convincingly and compellingly how and why taxpayer money is being spent.
Efforts to balance city budgets are opportunities to build consensus with the public about what municipalities can do, and at what cost. The coming months will show whether politicians and city residents are ready for these hard conversations.
John Rennie Short does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Five years after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, many U.S. cities are still adjusting to a new normal, with more people working remotely and less economic activity in city centers. Other factors, such as underfunded pension plans for municipal employees, are pushing many city budgets into the red.
Urban fiscal struggles are not new, but historically they have mainly affected U.S. cities that are small, poor or saddled with incompetent managers. Today, however, even large cities, including Chicago, Houston and San Francisco, are under serious financial stress.
This is a looming nationwide threat, driven by factors that include climate change, declining downtown activity, loss of federal funds and large pension and retirement commitments.
Spending cuts abound in many U.S. cities as inflation lingers and pandemic-era stimulus dries up.
Why cities struggle
Many U.S. cities have faced fiscal crises over the past century, for diverse reasons. Most commonly, stress occurs after an economic downturn or sharp fall in tax revenues.
Florida municipalities began to default in 1926 after the collapse of a land boom. Municipal defaults were common across the nation in the 1930s during the Great Depression: As unemployment rose, relief burdens swelled and tax collections dwindled.
Declaring bankruptcy was not a cure-all. It allowed cities to refinance debt or stretch out payment schedules, but it also could lead to higher taxes and fees for residents, and lower pay and benefits for city employees. And it could stigmatize a city for many years afterward.
In the 1960s and 1970s, many urban residents and businesses left cities for adjoining suburbs. Many cities, including New York, Cleveland and Philadelphia, found it difficult to repay debts as their tax bases shrank.
The New York Daily News, Oct. 30, 1975, after U.S. President Gerald Ford ruled out providing federal aid to save the city from bankruptcy. Several months later, Ford signed legislation authorizing federal loans. Edward Stojakovic/Flickr, CC BY
In the wake of the 2008-2009 housing market collapse, cities including Detroit, San Bernardino, California, and Stockton, California, filed for bankruptcy. Other cities faced similar difficulties but were located in states that did not allow municipalities to declare bankruptcy.
Even large, affluent jurisdictions could go off the financial rails. For example, Orange County, California, went bankrupt in 2002 after its treasurer, Robert Citron, pursued a risky investment strategy of complex leveraging deals, losing some $1.65 billion in taxpayer funds.
Today, cities face a convergence of rising costs and decreasing revenues in many places. As I see it, the urban fiscal crisis is now a pervasive national challenge.
Events like wildfires and flooding have twofold effects on city finances. First, money has to be spent on rebuilding damaged infrastructure, such as roads, water lines and public buildings. Second, after the disaster, cities may either act on their own or be required under state or federal law to make expensive investments in preparation for the next storm or wildfire.
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass (center) discusses wildfire recovery in Pacific Palisades, Calif., Jan. 27, 2025. Cleaning up after the wildfires, which destroyed more than 16,000 structures, will include disposing of several million tons of toxic ash and debris. Drew A. Kelley/MediaNews Group/Long Beach Press-Telegram via Getty Images
Increasing uncertainty about the total costs of mitigating and adapting to climate change will inevitably lead rating agencies to downgrade municipal credit ratings. This raises cities’ costs to borrow money for climate-related projects like protecting shorelines and improving wastewater treatment.
Underfunded pensions
Cities also spend a lot of money on employees, and many large cities are struggling to fund pensions and health benefits for their workforces. As municipal retirees live longer and require more health care, the costs are mounting.
For example, Chicago currently faces a budget deficit of nearly $1 billion, which stems partly from underfunded retirement benefits for nearly 30,000 public employees. The city has $35 billion in unfunded pension liabilities and almost $2 billion in unfunded retiree health benefits. Chicago’s teachers are owed $14 billion in unfunded benefits.
Policy studies have shown for years that politicians tend to underfund retirement and pension benefits for public employees. This approach offloads the real cost of providing police, fire protection and education onto future taxpayers.
In my view, President Donald Trump’s administration is highly unlikely to bail out urban areas – especially more liberal cities like Detroit, Philadelphia and San Francisco. Trump has portrayed large cities governed by Democrats in the darkest terms – for example, calling Baltimore a “rodent-infested mess” and Washington, D.C., a “dirty, crime-ridden death trap.” I expect that Trump’s animus against big cities, which was a staple of his 2024 campaign, could become a hallmark of his second term.
Detroit officials respond to disparaging remarks about the city by Donald Trump during a campaign speech in Detroit, Oct. 10, 2024.
Resistance to new taxes
Cities can generate revenue from taxes on sales, businesses, property and utilities. However, increasing municipal taxes – particularly property taxes – can be very difficult.
In 1978, California adopted Proposition 13 – a ballot measure that limited property tax increases to the rate of inflation or 2% per year, whichever is lower. This high-profile campaign created a widespread narrative that property taxes were out of control and made it very hard for local officials to support property tax increases.
Thanks to caps like Prop 13, a persistent public view that taxes are too high and political resistance, property taxes have tended to lag behind inflation in many parts of the country.
The crunch
Taking these factors together, I see a fiscal crunch coming for U.S. cities. Small cities with low budgets are particularly vulnerable. But so are larger, more affluent cities, such as San Francisco with its collapsing downtown office market, or Houston, New York and Miami, which face growing costs from climate change.
Workers in North Miami Beach, Fla., distribute sandbags to residents to help prevent flooding as Hurricane Milton approaches the state on Oct. 8, 2024. AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee
One city manager who runs an affluent municipality in the Pacific Northwest told me that in these difficult circumstances, politicians need to be more frank and open with their constituents and explain convincingly and compellingly how and why taxpayer money is being spent.
Efforts to balance city budgets are opportunities to build consensus with the public about what municipalities can do, and at what cost. The coming months will show whether politicians and city residents are ready for these hard conversations.
John Rennie Short does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Residential energy expenditures for homes heating with natural gas and propane for the current winter (November through March) have grown, and now we expect them to total 10% more than last winter. In our initial Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts published in October 2024, we had expected that homes mainly heating with natural gas would spend between 2% less or 7% more this winter than last, depending on weather conditions. As the winter has progressed and energy prices and consumption have increased beyond our initial expectations, we have revised these forecasts upward.
Each October, we publish a Winter Fuels Outlook with forecasts for energy consumption, prices, and expenditures for U.S. households. We categorize homes based on their main heating fuel: natural gas, electricity, propane, or heating oil. Almost all U.S. homes (96% in 2023) use one of those four fuels as their main heating source.
In each month from November through March, we update these forecasts based on actual weather and prices and the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts for future weather and prices.
Weather outcomes are a key source of uncertainty in our forecasts, so we provide three sets with different weather assumptions. Retail energy prices—especially for propane and heating oil—are sensitive to actual weather and the resulting effects on energy demand, supply, and wholesale prices.
Residential propane and heating oil expenditures tend to have wider ranges of uncertainty in our forecasts. By comparison, natural gas and electricity prices tend to lag changes in wholesale prices because of the nature of utility regulation.
Last month’s cold weather increased energy prices and consumption, both of which increased residential energy expenditures. We use population-weighted heating degree days (HDDs) as an indicator of heating demand, with more HDDs indicating colder weather. A typical January in the United States has 831 HDDs, based on the average of the previous 10 Januarys. However, January 2025 was much colder, with 927 HDDs.
January’s cold weather increased natural gas consumption and resulted in near-record withdrawals of natural gas from storage. Similarly, U.S. propane inventories—which had been relatively full at the beginning of winter—were drawn down as consumption increased and are now near their previous five-year average. U.S. propane exports are also at record highs, which can also elevate domestic propane prices.
Wholesale natural gas and propane prices increased in late 2024 and continued to increase in January. In our October 2024 forecast, we had expected wholesale natural gas and propane prices to increase during the winter, but the timing and magnitude of actual price increases were faster and greater than initially forecast.
We will continue to update our Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts for residential energy consumption concurrently with each monthly update of our Short-Term Energy Outlook.
Principal contributor: Office of Energy Analysis Staff
EIB provides €240 million loan to Slovakia to advance green and digital projects
Slovak government will use EIB long-term financing as national contribution mandatory for EU-financed development projects
Credit is first part of €800 million EIB facility approved to strengthen environmental sustainability and economic competitiveness of Slovakia
The European Investment Bank (EIB) is providing a €240 million loan to Slovakia for co-funding of EU-supported green and digital projects across the country. The credit is the first part of an €800 million EIB loan approved to Slovakia for national contributions mandatory for European Union-supported project which bring billions of euros to member states annually.
“We are increasing the country’s ability to tap EU grants, enabling Slovak citizens and businesses to benefit from accelerated economic growth and social development,” said EIB Vice-President Kyriacos Kakouris. “Our financing will strengthen cohesion and improve public services, the business environment and living standards in Slovakia.”
Slovakia will use EIB funding for projects designed to improve research and innovation, digitization of economy, growth and competitiveness of SMEs, work skills for smart specialization, transition and digital connectivity, energy efficiency and renewable energy, climate change adaptation, sustainable water, circular economy and nature protection and biodiversity.
In addition to helping green Slovakia’s economy, such projects will enhance the country’s living standards and strengthen its competitiveness on global markets.
“This EIB loan will enable us to support projects that drive digital innovation, expand renewable energy, and enhance climate resilience. Our partnership with the EIB ensures that Slovakia remains at the forefront of the EU’s sustainability goals while fostering job creation and economic resilience in our regions. We are dedicated to using these funds wisely to build a smarter, cleaner, and more competitive economy,” said the Slovak Minister of Finance Ladislav Kamenický.
EIB annual results in Slovakia for 2024
In 2024, the EIB Group increased its financing in Slovakia by 21% to €355 million. Key initiatives last year included €50 million to support eco-friendly water and wastewater management in Bratislava and €65 million to help Slovak small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and Mid-Caps drive job creation, enhance competitiveness and advance climate action goals.
“Our 2024 results are good news for Slovakia and the EU,” said EIB Vice- President Kakouris. “We financed projects of vital importance for a sustainable, green and prosperous future for Slovakia. Our commitment to Slovakia remains strong and, as the country pursues its development goals, it can continue to rely on the EIB for support.”
EIB advisory activities in the country last year included addressing affordable-housing challenges in Bratislava. Expanding affordable housing across the EU is one of eight operational priorities for the EIB.
Background information
European Investment Bank: The European Investment Bank (ElB) is the long-term lending institution of the European Union, owned by its Member States. Built around eight core priorities, we finance investments that contribute to EU policy objectives by bolstering climate action and the environment, digitalisation and technological innovation, security and defence, cohesion, agriculture and bioeconomy, social infrastructure, the capital markets union, and a stronger Europe in a more peaceful and prosperous world.
The EIB Group, which also includes the European Investment Fund (EIF), signed nearly €89 billion in new financing for over 900 high-impact projects in 2024, boosting Europe’s competitiveness and security.
All projects financed by the EIB Group are in line with the Paris Climate Agreement, as pledged in our Climate Bank Roadmap. Almost 60% of the EIB Group’s annual financing supports projects directly contributing to climate change mitigation, adaptation, and a healthier environment.
Fostering market integration and mobilising investment, the Group supported a record of over €100 billion in new investment for Europe’s energy security in 2024 and mobilised €110 billion in growth capital for startups, scale-ups and European pioneers
Approximately half of the EIB’s financing within the European Union is directed towards cohesion regions, where per capita income is lower than the EU average.
The city of Stockholm, SKF, Ericsson, Tele2 and Chromafora were some of the actors in Sweden granted EU financing in 2024 through the EIB Group.
This financing amounted to around SEK 22 billion (€1.9 billion) and more than 65% of this went to initiatives supporting the green transition.
Just over 32 000 jobs are estimated to have been saved thanks to this financing.
Over the course of 2024, the European Investment Bank (EIB) and the European Investment Fund (EIF) continued to support Sweden’s economic development and climate initiatives through substantial investments.
The EIB Group’s financing during the year amounted to around SEK 22 billion, of which more than 60% went to climate measures and environmental sustainability. This money supported wind power, energy-efficient housing and industrial electrification, among other projects.
These investments are estimated to have kept 32 000 jobs in Sweden.
“Sweden has come a long way in the green transition, but the work is far from complete. As the EU climate bank, we are proud to be accelerating efforts within renewable energy, electrification and other climate-promoting initiatives, and we will continue to support investments that make a real difference for the climate and society as a whole. We are also proud to contribute to jobs and strong infrastructure, which creates long-term value for Swedish society,” said EIB Vice-President Thomas Östros.
Over the course of 2024, the EIB Group signed more than 20 agreements to provide financing in Sweden. Here are a few examples:
SKF: €430 million for research and innovation in fields such as renewable energy and electromobility.
Chromafora: €22.5 million to combat PFAS (“forever chemicals”).
Tele2: €140 million to expand the 5G network in order to reach 99% of the Swedish population.
City of Stockholm: €368 million to redevelop the Slussen area and reduce the risk of flooding.
City of Malmö: €225 million to build more than 1 500 energy-efficient apartments.
These investments reflect the EIB Group’s extensive involvement in Sweden’s green transition, digitalisation and social development.
The European Investment Fund (EIF) – which is part of the EIB – allocated €320 million to capital investments and guarantees in Sweden in 2024. This in turn is expected to mobilise around SEK 3.8 billion in investment for the Swedish economy, with more than 5 300 companies expected to benefit from this financing in different ways.
Several of the initiatives are supported by the European Commission’s InvestEU programme.
In addition to investing in funds such as Course Corrected and the Swedish Impact Lending Fund, the EIF also issued guarantees for businesses such as the corporate lender Froda.
Please note: The figures provided in this press release are approximate and subject to exchange rates.
Background information
EIB
The European Investment Bank (EIB) is the long-term lending institution of the European Union, owned by its Member States. The EIB finances investments that contribute to EU policy objectives. EIB projects bolster competitiveness, drive innovation, promote sustainable development, enhance social and territorial cohesion, and support a just and swift transition to climate neutrality.
All projects financed by the EIB Group are in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The EIB Group does not fund investments in fossil fuels. We are on track to deliver on our commitment to support €1 billion in climate and environmental sustainability investment in the decade to 2030 as pledged in our Climate Bank Roadmap. Almost 60% of the EIB Group’s annual financing supports projects directly contributing to climate change mitigation, adaptation, and a healthier environment.
Approximately half of the EIB’s financing within the European Union is directed towards cohesion regions, where per capita income is lower than the EU average. This underscores the Bank’s commitment to fostering inclusive growth and the convergence of living standards.
