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Category: Climate Change

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Hurricane Helene set up future disasters, from landslides to flooding – cascading hazards like these are upending risk models

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Hurricane Helene set up future disasters, from landslides to flooding – cascading hazards like these are upending risk models – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-helene-set-up-future-disasters-from-landslides-to-flooding-cascading-hazards-like-these-are-upending-risk-models-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Hurricane Helene set up future disasters, from landslides to flooding – cascading hazards like these are now upending risk models

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Hurricane Helene set up future disasters, from landslides to flooding – cascading hazards like these are now upending risk models – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-helene-set-up-future-disasters-from-landslides-to-flooding-cascading-hazards-like-these-are-now-upending-risk-models-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: West End LIVE celebrates 20 years of show-stopping performances in Trafalgar Square | Westminster City Council

    Source: City of Westminster

    West End LIVE returned to Trafalgar Square for its 20th anniversary on Saturday 21 and Sunday 22 June, drawing thousands of theatre lovers to the heart of Westminster to enjoy world-class musical performances. 

    Organised by Westminster City Council in partnership with the Society of London Theatre, West End LIVE has grown over two decades to become Europe’s largest free musical theatre festival. Over the weekend, 70,000 people attended and there have been 1.46 million views on the YouTube videos from the event. 

    This year’s line-up featured over 60 performances with a mix of beloved classics and recent hits, delivering an unforgettable showcase of the most iconic songs across all West End musicals. A special performance celebrating two decades of West End LIVE took centre stage on Sunday afternoon with memorable songs from musicals of the last 20 years, some of which are no longer running in West End.

    For the first time, working alongside our power provider, Film and TV Services, the entire event was powered by 100% green energy using grid-supplied electricity, Battery Energy Storage Systems, and state-of-the-art Stage V backup generators. 

    This year, we also made improvements to our pre-allocated accessibility viewing area and worked with Nimbus Disability to provide guests with greater clarity on the documentation they needed. 

    In addition to showcasing the very best of the West End to visitors from across the world, the event was a community celebration and attended by guests from community organisations across Westminster in line with our aim of increasing cultural access for local residents. 

    Cllr Ryan Jude, Westminster City Council Cabinet Member for Climate, Ecology and Culture, said:  

    “West End LIVE is one of the highlights of Westminster’s cultural calendar, and it was fantastic to see Trafalgar Square filled with so much energy, talent, and thousands of theatre lovers.

    “This year, we’re especially proud that the event was powered by 100% green energy, reflecting our commitment to creating a Fairer Environment by reducing the carbon footprint of large-scale cultural events.

    “Through our partnership with the Society of London Theatre, the impact of West End LIVE reaches far beyond a single weekend.  Working together, we’re proud to be increasing access to cultural opportunities for residents and young people in Westminster. West End LIVE is a wonderful example of how we are ensuring everyone has the chance to experience the amazing cultural opportunities we have on offer in our city.” 

    Emma De Souza, Executive Director (Audiences & Commercial) at Society of London Theatre & UK Theatre, said:  

    “Our 20th West End LIVE was truly memorable, welcoming so many brilliant shows to the stage from the West End and beyond. International stage and screen celebrities such as Corbin Bleu, Kevin McHale, Keala Settle, Vanessa Williams and Rachel Zegler took to the stage, alongside some of our best-loved West End and Broadway stars including Carrie Hope Fletcher, Lee Mead, Andy Nyman, Orfeh and Marisha Wallace, and an abundance of home-grown talent including acclaimed singer Fleur East. 

    “This event would not be possible without the unique relationship we have forged with Westminster City Council over the past 20 years, and we are very grateful to them, to all of the shows involved, and to our sponsors for their ongoing support.” 

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Africa: DFFE allocates R9 billion amid budget constraints

    Source: South Africa News Agency

    The Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) has been allocated R9.08 billion for the 2025/26 financial year, accounting for 0.35% of the national appropriation.

    “When adjusted for inflation, this reflects a real decrease of R121.5 million, or 1.4%, compared to last year. In short; the department is being asked to do more, with less,” Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, Dr Dion George, said during his Budget Vote speech in Parliament on Friday.

    The Minister said the Budget Vote is being tabled against the backdrop of a constrained fiscal environment. 

    “Following the reversal of the proposed VAT increase in May 2025, the national budget framework was revised, with consolidated government spending projected to grow from R2.4 trillion in 2024/25 to R2.81 trillion in 2027/28.

    “Nearly half the Department’s medium-term budget – R14.5 billion – will go directly to goods and services, including the Expanded Public Works Programme, implementation of the Forestry Master Plan, and rollout of the Waste Management Strategy,” the Minister said.

    Transfers and subsidies to public entities, such as the South African National Bioinformatics Institute (SANBI), South African National Parks (SANParks), iSimangaliso, and South African Weather Service, will account for over R5.5 billion.

    “This department is using every rand to protect ecosystems, grow green jobs, and meet the urgent demands of climate adaptation, regulation, and environmental justice.

    “To achieve these imperatives, the department is focusing on six flagship priorities in the 2025/26 financial year. These “Big 6” priorities shape our work, guide our partnerships, and define the strategic investments proposed in this Budget Vote,” the Minister said.

    He emphasised that climate change is not a distant threat.

    “…It is here, disrupting our communities, economies, and ecosystems. We see it in rising temperatures, intensifying floods, droughts, and fires that affect lives and livelihoods. Through the Climate Change Act, now in force, we have established a unified, whole- of-government response to this urgent crisis.

    “This year, we will deliver new Nationally Determined Contributions, a revised Low Emissions Development Strategy, final Sectoral Emission Targets, and implement the Climate Change Adaptation Response Plan for vulnerable coastal regions,” the Minister said.

    The department has also completed the Highveld Air Quality Management Plan to ensure Eskom complies with air pollution laws — because the constitutional right to clean air cannot be compromised.

    “South Africa’s biodiversity is a powerful engine for development. The revised National Biodiversity Economy Strategy will unlock 397,000 jobs and inject R127 billion annually into the economy by 2036 through eco-tourism, bioprospecting, and sustainable game meat production.

    “South Africa’s fisheries are lifelines for coastal and rural communities. Through Fishing for Freedom, we are securing sustainable access, supporting small-scale fishers, and combating illegal harvesting that threatens biodiversity and food security.

    “We are fast-tracking signage, wreck removal, security and road markings at the 12 proclaimed fishing harbours, implementing co-management systems for nearshore fisheries, and expanding Small, Medium and Micro enterprises (SMMEs) training in the small-scale fisheries sector,” the Minister said.

    This is part of the department’s revitalisation of harbours — unlocking jobs and dignity for coastal communities. – SAnews.gov.za

    MIL OSI Africa –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve – https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-dont-disappear-when-the-storm-ends-or-the-earthquake-stops-they-evolve-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve – https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-dont-disappear-when-the-storm-ends-or-the-earthquake-stops-they-evolve-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Natural disasters don’t disappear when the storm ends or the earthquake stops – they evolve – https://theconversation.com/natural-disasters-dont-disappear-when-the-storm-ends-or-the-earthquake-stops-they-evolve-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Decisions taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in addition to decisions setting interest rates)

    Source: European Central Bank

    June 2025

    27 June 2025

    External communication

    ECB Convergence Report 2025

    On 4 June 2025 the ECB published its Convergence Report, prepared following a request by Bulgaria on 25 February 2025. The report examines Bulgaria’s state of economic convergence and the compatibility of its national legislation with the Treaties. It was approved by the General Council and published simultaneously with the report prepared by the European Commission as foreseen by the provisions of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. The report is available on the ECB’s website, together with a related press release.

    Monetary policy

    Climate-related disclosures of the Eurosystem’s corporate bond holdings

    On 30 May 2025 the Governing Council authorised the publication of the third ECB report on the climate-related financial disclosures of Eurosystem assets held for monetary policy purposes and the ECB’s foreign reserves. The report provides information on the Eurosystem portfolios’ carbon footprint and exposure to climate risks, as well as on climate-related governance, strategy and risk management. A second report also provides information on the ECB’s euro-denominated non-monetary policy portfolios, including its own funds portfolio and its staff pension fund. Both reports, together with a related press release, were published on the ECB’s website on 12 June 2025.

    Market operations

    Postponement of reporting requirements of monetary policy counterparties for the first quarter of 2025

    On 6 June 2025 the Governing Council decided to postpone, on a one-off basis, the reporting requirements of counterparties for the first quarter of 2025 as spelled out in Article 158(3) of Guideline (EU) 2015/510 of the European Central Bank (General Documentation Guideline) with the transitional periods of the new supervisory reporting regime introduced by Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2024/3117. More specifically, the Governing Council decided to set the date for an automatic suspension on the grounds of prudence mentioned in Article 158(3) to 7 October 2025. The reporting requirements concerned relate to the transmission of own funds and leverage ratio data by eligible counterparties. A related announcement is available on the ECB’s website.

    Amendments to the third covered bond purchase programme (CBPP3) and pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP) Decisions

    On 11 June 2025 the Governing Council adopted Decision ECB/2025/20 amending Decision ECB/2020/8 on the implementation of the CBPP3, and adopted Decision ECB/2025/21 amending Decision ECB/2020/17 on a temporary PEPP. The amendments reflect the decisions taken by the Governing Council in April 2025 to amend, first, the provisions on counterparties eligible for the CBPP3 to allow Eurosystem central banks to participate in standard market transactions such as repurchase transactions by issuers of covered bonds (“buybacks”), and, second, the rules applicable to securities lending transactions of covered bonds held by the Eurosystem under the CBPP3 and the temporary PEPP to reflect risk management considerations.

    Market infrastructure and payments

    Decision confirming the go-live of the Eurosystem Collateral Management System (ECMS)

    On 16 May 2025 the Governing Council confirmed, following a positive assessment conducted by the Market Infrastructure Board, that the ECMS would go live on 16 June 2025. A related announcement was published on the same day on the ECB’s website. The ECB also issued a press release on 17 June 2025 confirming the successful launch over the weekend of 13-15 June 2025.

    Launch of a public consultation on a possible extension of T2 operating hours

    On 30 May 2025 the Governing Council decided to launch a public consultation on a possible extension of T2 operating hours and approved the related consultation paper and its publication on the ECB’s website. The primary objective of this consultation, which runs until 30 September 2025, is for the Eurosystem to understand current and upcoming market needs and identify any constraints that may arise if T2 operating hours were extended. Based on this feedback and a thorough analysis of the responses received, in the course of 2026 the Governing Council will discuss possible follow-up actions.

    Decision amending Decision (EU) 2025/222 on access by non-bank payment service providers to Eurosystem central bank operated payment systems and central bank accounts (ECB/2025/2)

    On 2 June 2025 the Governing Council adopted Decision (EU) 2025/1148 amending Decision (EU) 2025/222 on access by non-bank payment service providers to Eurosystem central bank operated payment systems and central bank accounts (ECB/2025/2) (ECB/2025/18). The amendment follows from the decision taken by the Governing Council to postpone amendments to the TARGET Guideline in order to avoid the legal uncertainty that would have ensued in relation to access by non-bank payment service providers to Eurosystem central bank operated payment systems, including TARGET components, as a result of delays in some euro-area Member States in transposing relevant amendments to Directive 98/26/EC on settlement finality in payment and securities settlement systems and Directive (EU) 2015/2366 on payment services in the internal market into national legislation.

    Progress report on the digital euro project

    On 3 June 2025 the Governing Council discussed the progress made on key digital euro design aspects (e.g. the sourcing of potential providers, preparation of the rulebook, experimentation and further analysis) and took note of the envisaged next steps, concluding that the project remained on track in terms of both budget and timing. More detailed information on the digital euro project is available on the ECB’s website.

    Eurosystem roadmap regarding distributed ledger technology (DLT) for wholesale central bank money settlement

    On 23 June 2025 the Governing Council approved a high-level roadmap for its two-track approach on DLT for wholesale central bank money settlement which the Eurosystem embarked on with its exploratory work in 2024. Under the first track, referred to as Pontes, the Market Infrastructure Board is mandated to deliver an operational short-term offering to settle DLT-based transactions in central bank money, for which a pilot is expected to be launched by the end of the third quarter of 2026. The second track, referred to as Appia, will focus on identifying a potential long-term approach for an innovative and integrated ecosystem in Europe that also includes international operations. A related press release with more detailed information will be published in due course on the ECB’s website.

    Report on Eurosystem’s exploratory work on new technologies for wholesale central bank money settlement

    On 25 June 2025 the Governing Council took note of a report, prepared by the Market Infrastructure and Payments Committee, on the Eurosystem’s exploratory work on new technologies for wholesale central bank money settlement. The report consolidates the key findings of this initiative, which attracted high interest with a total of 64 eligible participants, across nine jurisdictions, and almost €1.6 billion settled in 27 trials, and it showcases the various use cases identified. The report will be published in due course on the ECB’s website.

    Advice on legislation

    ECB Opinion on the composition of the decision-making bodies of the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, the treasury accounts managed by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank and the permitted activities of foundations established by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank

    On 27 May 2025 the Governing Council adopted Opinion CON/2025/12 prepared on the ECB’s own initiative.

    ECB Opinion on the pensions of the Nationale Bank van België/Banque Nationale de Belgique

    On 10 June 2025 the Governing Council adopted Opinion CON/2025/13 at the request of the Belgian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finances and Pensions.

    ECB Opinion on access to cash and a constitutional right to payment in cash

    On 25 June 2025 the Governing Council adopted Opinion CON/2025/14 at the request of Magyar Nemzeti Bank. The Opinion will be available in due course on EUR-Lex.

    Corporate governance

    ECB Recommendation on the external auditors of the Deutsche Bundesbank

    On 2 June 2025 the Governing Council adopted Recommendation ECB/2025/19 to the Council of the European Union on the external auditors of the Deutsche Bundesbank.

    Membership of the ECB Audit Committee and the ECB Ethics Committee

    On 4 June 2025 the Governing Council appointed Gaston Reinesch as Governing Council member to the ECB Audit Committee to succeed Klaas Knot, whose mandate comes to an end on 1 July 2025. The Governing Council also appointed Federica Mogherini, the current Rector of the College of Europe, Director of the European Union Diplomatic Academy and former High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the European Commission, as a new member of the ECB Ethics Committee, to succeed Virginia R. Canter, whose mandate comes to an end at the beginning of August 2025. These appointments, which start on 1 July and 1 August 2025, respectively, are for an initial term of three years, renewable once.

    Statistics

    Recommendation for amending Council Regulation (EC) No 2533/98 concerning the collection of statistical information by the ECB

    On 22 May 2025 the Governing Council adopted Recommendation ECB/2025/17 for a Council Regulation amending Regulation (EC) No 2533/98 concerning the collection of statistical information by the European Central Bank. The main objective of amending Regulation (EC) No 2533/98 is to address the significant changes in the collection, compilation, dissemination and use of statistical information by the European System of Central Banks (ESCB) owing to the digital transformation. These changes have led to demands for timelier, more frequent and more detailed statistical information but have also offered new possibilities for a more efficient collection of statistical information, therefore improving its cost-effectiveness and minimising the reporting burden.

    International and European cooperation

    Report on the international role of the euro

    On 15 May 2025 the Governing Council approved the June 2025 edition of the report on the international role of the euro and authorised its publication on the ECB’s website. The report, which presents an overview of developments in the use of the euro by non-euro area residents in 2024, is available, together with a related press release, on the ECB’s website.

    ESCB response to the European Commission targeted consultation on the integration of EU capital markets

    On 4 June 2025 the Governing Council, with the benefit of the observations received from members of the General Council, approved an ESCB response to the European Commission’s targeted consultation on the integration of EU capital markets. The ESCB response, which provides detailed views of the ESCB on specific aspects regarding simplification and burden reduction, trading, post-trading, horizontal barriers to trade and post-trade infrastructures, asset management and funds, topics for consultation on supervision, as well as horizontal questions on the supervisory framework, is available on the ECB’s website.

    ECB Banking Supervision

    Compliance with the European Supervisory Authorities’ (ESA) Joint Guidelines for the exchange of information relevant for fit and proper assessments

    On 16 May 2025 the Governing Council did not object to a proposal by the Supervisory Board to notify the European Banking Authority (EBA) that, for the significant institutions under its direct supervision, the ECB already complies with the Joint Guidelines on the system established by the ESAs for the exchange of information relevant to the assessment of the fitness and propriety of holders of qualifying holdings, directors and key function holders of financial institutions and financial market participants by competent authorities (JC/GL/2024/88). The Joint Guidelines aim at establishing consistent, efficient and effective supervisory practices within the European System of Financial Supervision, and at ensuring the common, uniform and consistent application of Union law with regard to the use of the system established by the ESAs for the aforementioned exchange of information.

    Compliance with the ESA Joint Guidelines on the estimation of aggregated annual costs and losses caused by major ICT-related incidents under Regulation (EU) 2022/2554

    On 19 May 2025 the Governing Council did not object to a proposal by the Supervisory Board to notify the EBA that, for the significant institutions under its direct supervision, the ECB intends to comply by 30 November 2025 with the Joint Guidelines on the estimation of aggregated annual costs and losses caused by major ICT-related incidents under Regulation (EU) 2022/2554 (JC/GL/2024/34).

    Compliance with the EBA Guidelines on environmental, social and governance (ESG) risks

    On 28 May 2025 the Governing Council did not object to a proposal by the Supervisory Board to notify the EBA that, for the significant institutions under its direct supervision, the ECB intends to comply by 11 January 2026 with the Guidelines on the management of ESG risks (EBA/GL/2025/01). These guidelines aim at enhancing the identification, measurement, management and monitoring of ESG risks by institutions, and at supporting their safety and soundness as they are confronted with the short, medium and long-term impact of ESG factors. They contain requirements as to the internal processes and ESG risk management arrangements that institutions should have in place, including specific plans to address the risks arising from the transition and process of adjustment to relevant sustainability legal and regulatory objectives.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Cascading disasters like those created by Hurricane Helene show why hazard models can’t rely on the past

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Brian J. Yanites, Associate Professor of Earth and Atmospheric Science. Professor of Surficial and Sedimentary Geology, Indiana University

    The Carter Lodge hangs precariously over the flood-scoured bank of the Broad River in Chimney Rock Village, N.C., on May 13, 2025, eight months after Hurricane Helene. AP Photo/Allen G. Breed

    Hurricane Helene lasted only a few days in September 2024, but it altered the landscape of the Southeastern U.S. in profound ways that will affect the hazards local residents face far into the future.

    Mudslides buried roads and reshaped river channels. Uprooted trees left soil on hillslopes exposed to the elements. Sediment that washed into rivers changed how water flows through the landscape, leaving some areas more prone to flooding and erosion.

    Helene was a powerful reminder that natural hazards don’t disappear when the skies clear – they evolve.

    These transformations are part of what scientists call cascading hazards. They occur when one natural event alters the landscape in ways that lead to future hazards. A landslide triggered by a storm might clog a river, leading to downstream flooding months or years later. A wildfire can alter the soil and vegetation, setting the stage for debris flows with the next rainstorm.

    Satellite images before (top) and after Hurricane Helene (bottom) show how the storm altered landscape near Pensacola, N.C., in the Blue Ridge Mountains.
    Google Earth, CC BY

    I study these disasters as a geomorphologist. In a new paper in the journal Science, I and a team of scientists from 18 universities and the U.S. Geological Survey explain why hazard models – used to help communities prepare for disasters – can’t just rely on the past. Instead, they need to be nimble enough to forecast how hazards evolve in real time.

    The science behind cascading hazards

    Cascading hazards aren’t random. They emerge from physical processes that operate continuously across the landscape – sediment movement, weathering, erosion. Together, the atmosphere, biosphere and the earth are constantly reshaping the conditions that cause natural disasters.

    For instance, earthquakes fracture rock and shake loose soil. Even if landslides don’t occur during the quake itself, the ground may be weakened, leaving it primed for failure during later rainstorms.

    That’s exactly what happened after the 2008 earthquake in Sichuan Province, China, which led to a surge in debris flows long after the initial seismic event.

    A strong aftershock after a 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Sichuan province, China, in May 2008 triggered more landslides in central China.
    AP Photo/Andy Wong

    Earth’s surface retains a “memory” of these events. Sediment disturbed in an earthquake, wildfire or severe storm will move downslope over years or even decades, reshaping the landscape as it goes.

    The 1950 Assam earthquake in India is a striking example: It triggered thousands of landslides. The sediment from these landslides gradually moved through the river system, eventually causing flooding and changing river channels in Bangladesh some 20 years later.

    An intensifying threat in a changing world

    These risks present challenges for everything from emergency planning to home insurance. After repeated wildfire-mudslide combinations in California, some insurers pulled out of the state entirely, citing mounting risks and rising costs among the reasons.

    Cascading hazards are not new, but their impact is intensifying.

    Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of wildfires, storms and extreme rainfall. At the same time, urban development continues to expand into steep, hazard-prone terrain, exposing more people and infrastructure to evolving risks.

    The rising risk of interconnected climate disasters like these is overwhelming systems built for isolated events.

    Yet climate change is only part of the equation. Earth processes – such as earthquakes and volcanic eruptions – also trigger cascading hazards, often with long-lasting effects.

    Mount St. Helens is a powerful example: More than four decades after its eruption in 1980, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers continues to manage ash and sediment from the eruption to keep it from filling river channels in ways that could increase the flood risk in downstream communities.

    Rethinking risk and building resilience

    Traditionally, insurance companies and disaster managers have estimated hazard risk by looking at past events.

    But when the landscape has changed, the past may no longer be a reliable guide to the future. To address this, computer models based on the physics of how these events work are needed to help forecast hazard evolution in real time, much like weather models update with new atmospheric data.

    A March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range wiped out trees in its path.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025
    A drone image of the same March 2024 landslide in the Oregon Coast Range shows where it temporarily dammed the river below.
    Brian Yanites, June 2025

    Thanks to advances in Earth observation technology, such as satellite imagery, drone and lidar, which is similar to radar but uses light, scientists can now track how hillslopes, rivers and vegetation change after disasters. These observations can feed into geomorphic models that simulate how loosened sediment moves and where hazards are likely to emerge next.

    Researchers are already coupling weather forecasts with post-wildfire debris flow models. Other models simulate how sediment pulses travel through river networks.

    Cascading hazards reveal that Earth’s surface is not a passive backdrop, but an active, evolving system. Each event reshapes the stage for the next.

    Understanding these connections is critical for building resilience so communities can withstand future storms, earthquakes and the problems created by debris flows. Better forecasts can inform building codes, guide infrastructure design and improve how risk is priced and managed. They can help communities anticipate long-term threats and adapt before the next disaster strikes.

    Most importantly, they challenge everyone to think beyond the immediate aftermath of a disaster – and to recognize the slow, quiet transformations that build toward the next.

    Brian J. Yanites receives funding from the National Science Foundation.

    – ref. Cascading disasters like those created by Hurricane Helene show why hazard models can’t rely on the past – https://theconversation.com/cascading-disasters-like-those-created-by-hurricane-helene-show-why-hazard-models-cant-rely-on-the-past-259502

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Toxic algae blooms are lasting longer in Lake Erie − why that’s a worry for people and pets

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gregory J. Dick, Professor of Biology, University of Michigan

    A satellite image from Aug. 13, 2024, shows an algal bloom covering approximately 320 square miles (830 square km) of Lake Erie. By Aug. 22, it had nearly doubled in size. NASA Earth Observatory

    Federal scientists released their annual forecast for Lake Erie’s harmful algal blooms on June 26, 2025, and they expect a mild to moderate season. However, anyone who comes in contact with the blooms can face health risks, and it’s worth remembering that 2014, when toxins from algae blooms contaminated the water supply in Toledo, Ohio, was considered a moderate year, too.

    We asked Gregory J. Dick, who leads the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, a federally funded center at the University of Michigan that studies harmful algal blooms among other Great Lakes issues, why they’re such a concern.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s prediction for harmful algal bloom severity in Lake Erie compared with past years.
    NOAA

    1. What causes harmful algal blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms are dense patches of excessive algae growth that can occur in any type of water body, including ponds, reservoirs, rivers, lakes and oceans. When you see them in freshwater, you’re typically seeing cyanobacteria, also known as blue-green algae.

    These photosynthetic bacteria have inhabited our planet for billions of years. In fact, they were responsible for oxygenating Earth’s atmosphere, which enabled plant and animal life as we know it.

    The leading source of harmful algal blooms today is nutrient runoff from fertilized farm fields.
    Michigan Sea Grant

    Algae are natural components of ecosystems, but they cause trouble when they proliferate to high densities, creating what we call blooms.

    Harmful algal blooms form scums at the water surface and produce toxins that can harm ecosystems, water quality and human health. They have been reported in all 50 U.S. states, all five Great Lakes and nearly every country around the world. Blue-green algae blooms are becoming more common in inland waters.

    The main sources of harmful algal blooms are excess nutrients in the water, typically phosphorus and nitrogen.

    Historically, these excess nutrients mainly came from sewage and phosphorus-based detergents used in laundry machines and dishwashers that ended up in waterways. U.S. environmental laws in the early 1970s addressed this by requiring sewage treatment and banning phosphorus detergents, with spectacular success.

    How pollution affected Lake Erie in the 1960s, before clean water regulations.

    Today, agriculture is the main source of excess nutrients from chemical fertilizer or manure applied to farm fields to grow crops. Rainstorms wash these nutrients into streams and rivers that deliver them to lakes and coastal areas, where they fertilize algal blooms. In the U.S., most of these nutrients come from industrial-scale corn production, which is largely used as animal feed or to produce ethanol for gasoline.

    Climate change also exacerbates the problem in two ways. First, cyanobacteria grow faster at higher temperatures. Second, climate-driven increases in precipitation, especially large storms, cause more nutrient runoff that has led to record-setting blooms.

    2. What does your team’s DNA testing tell us about Lake Erie’s harmful algal blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms contain a mixture of cyanobacterial species that can produce an array of different toxins, many of which are still being discovered.

    When my colleagues and I recently sequenced DNA from Lake Erie water, we found new types of microcystins, the notorious toxins that were responsible for contaminating Toledo’s drinking water supply in 2014.

    These novel molecules cannot be detected with traditional methods and show some signs of causing toxicity, though further studies are needed to confirm their human health effects.

    Blue-green algae blooms in freshwater, like this one near Toledo in 2014, can be harmful to humans, causing gastrointestinal symptoms, headache, fever and skin irritation. They can be lethal for pets.
    Ty Wright for The Washington Post via Getty Images

    We also found organisms responsible for producing saxitoxin, a potent neurotoxin that is well known for causing paralytic shellfish poisoning on the Pacific Coast of North America and elsewhere.

    Saxitoxins have been detected at low concentrations in the Great Lakes for some time, but the recent discovery of hot spots of genes that make the toxin makes them an emerging concern.

    Our research suggests warmer water temperatures could boost its production, which raises concerns that saxitoxin will become more prevalent with climate change. However, the controls on toxin production are complex, and more research is needed to test this hypothesis. Federal monitoring programs are essential for tracking and understanding emerging threats.

    3. Should people worry about these blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms are unsightly and smelly, making them a concern for recreation, property values and businesses. They can disrupt food webs and harm aquatic life, though a recent study suggested that their effects on the Lake Erie food web so far are not substantial.

    But the biggest impact is from the toxins these algae produce that are harmful to humans and lethal to pets.

    The toxins can cause acute health problems such as gastrointestinal symptoms, headache, fever and skin irritation. Dogs can die from ingesting lake water with harmful algal blooms. Emerging science suggests that long-term exposure to harmful algal blooms, for example over months or years, can cause or exacerbate chronic respiratory, cardiovascular and gastrointestinal problems and may be linked to liver cancers, kidney disease and neurological issues.

    The water intake system for the city of Toledo, Ohio, is surrounded by an algae bloom in 2014. Toxic algae got into the water system, resulting in residents being warned not to touch or drink their tap water for three days.
    AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari

    In addition to exposure through direct ingestion or skin contact, recent research also indicates that inhaling toxins that get into the air may harm health, raising concerns for coastal residents and boaters, but more research is needed to understand the risks.

    The Toledo drinking water crisis of 2014 illustrated the vast potential for algal blooms to cause harm in the Great Lakes. Toxins infiltrated the drinking water system and were detected in processed municipal water, resulting in a three-day “do not drink” advisory. The episode affected residents, hospitals and businesses, and it ultimately cost the city an estimated US$65 million.

    4. Blooms seem to be starting earlier in the year and lasting longer – why is that happening?

    Warmer waters are extending the duration of the blooms.

    In 2025, NOAA detected these toxins in Lake Erie on April 28, earlier than ever before. The 2022 bloom in Lake Erie persisted into November, which is rare if not unprecedented.

    Scientific studies of western Lake Erie show that the potential cyanobacterial growth rate has increased by up to 30% and the length of the bloom season has expanded by up to a month from 1995 to 2022, especially in warmer, shallow waters. These results are consistent with our understanding of cyanobacterial physiology: Blooms like it hot – cyanobacteria grow faster at higher temperatures.

    5. What can be done to reduce the likelihood of algal blooms in the future?

    The best and perhaps only hope of reducing the size and occurrence of harmful algal blooms is to reduce the amount of nutrients reaching the Great Lakes.

    In Lake Erie, where nutrients come primarily from agriculture, that means improving agricultural practices and restoring wetlands to reduce the amount of nutrients flowing off of farm fields and into the lake. Early indications suggest that Ohio’s H2Ohio program, which works with farmers to reduce runoff, is making some gains in this regard, but future funding for H2Ohio is uncertain.

    In places like Lake Superior, where harmful algal blooms appear to be driven by climate change, the solution likely requires halting and reversing the rapid human-driven increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

    Gregory J. Dick receives funding for harmful algal bloom research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the United States Geological Survey, and the National Institutes for Health. He serves on the Science Advisory Council for the Environmental Law and Policy Center.

    – ref. Toxic algae blooms are lasting longer in Lake Erie − why that’s a worry for people and pets – https://theconversation.com/toxic-algae-blooms-are-lasting-longer-in-lake-erie-why-thats-a-worry-for-people-and-pets-259954

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Africa: Government identifies 59 biodiversity projects to unlock green finance

    Source: South Africa News Agency

    Government has identified 59 bankable biodiversity projects that are expected to generate at least $450,000 in green finance, Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, Dr Dion George announced during the department’s budget vote speech in Parliament on Friday.

    These funds were identified through the biodiversity sector investment portal, which links investors with bankable projects as a means of growing the biodiversity economy. 

    The portal is among the initiatives by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (DFFE) has undertaken to position the department as a national leader in environmental financing.

    “In the face of budget cuts, the DFFE is doubling down on financial discipline and innovation to ensure every rand unlocks value for people and the environment. Our proactive spending review, initiated in October 2024, has identified significant cost-saving opportunities,  aiming to redirect resources towards high-impact environmental and conservation initiatives.

    “Each branch is now mandated to explore new revenue streams, reduce unnecessary expenditure, and secure sustainable financing. Work has also begun on draft regulations to unlock the value of carbon credits,” the Minister said.

    These will lay the groundwork for monetising environmental assets under the department’s portfolio – supporting job creation, habitat conservation, private sector investment, and financing of priority programmes. 

    “This marks a bold step toward positioning DFFE as a national leader in environmental financing. To support this broader mandate, we have launched discussions with international donors, private partners, and philanthropies.

    “The Green Fund, managed by the Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), continues to channel public funding into innovative climate, energy, and waste projects. Our investment portal for the biodiversity economy has already spotlighted 59 bankable projects, leading to at least $450,000 in green finance committed,” he said.

    George assured parliament that the department’s entities continue to deliver exceptional impact – conserving our heritage, generating jobs, and building community resilience.

    “The South African National Parks (SANParks)  has placed inclusive development at the centre of its conservation mandate. Over the past five years, it has provided over 21 000 full-time jobs through the Expanded Public Works Programme, supported 3 127 small, micro and medium enterprises (SMMEs), and delivered 2 264 animals to emerging game farmers—ensuring that protected areas become engines of opportunity for surrounding communities.

    “iSimangaliso Wetland Park Authority is advancing its commercialisation strategy, with 62 contracts already signed and new revenue from tourism concessionaires set to flow directly to the entity from 1 September 2025,” the Minister said.

    As the nation’s frontline in early warning systems, the South African Weather Service has issued nearly 1 400 severe weather alerts last year and reached over 2 million vulnerable citizens through a targeted community radio programme and 32 outreach events. 

    “These efforts not only save lives but empower South Africans with climate information they can act on. The South African National Bioinformatics Institute (SANBI), South Africa’s national biodiversity steward, continues to lead in climate finance. A $40 million Green Climate Fund project will launch this year, benefiting over 350,000 people directly and 1.5 million indirectly through investments in ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction.

    “These achievements demonstrate that when we invest in our environmental entities, we invest in jobs, resilience, and a sustainable future,” the Minister said. – SAnews.gov.za

    MIL OSI Africa –

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Address to the Maritime Industry Australia Decarbonisation Summit, Melbourne

    Source: Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions

    **CHECK AGAINST DELIVERY**

    Thank you, Angela for your kind introduction, and congratulations to you and your team on organising this important event for the maritime industry.

    I begin by respectfully acknowledging the Traditional Custodians of the land on which we meet today. 

    I pay my respects to their Elders past and present, and I extend that respect to any and all First Nations people joining us today.

    Australia’s First Nations people were our first maritime traders. 

    This rich and deep history included trade with Macassan ships from Indonesia along our Northern frontier, and seafaring trade in the Torres Strait, and along the coast of Papua New Guinea. Our modern maritime industry builds on this tradition.

    I’d also like to acknowledge, from the Victorian Government, Melissa Horne MP, Minister for Health Infrastructure, Ports and Freight, and Roads and Road Safety.

    And Professor Rod Sims AO, from the Crawford School of Public Policy at the ANU – thank you for joining us today.

    The theme of this Summit is ‘progress’ and we come together on the International Day of the Seafarer. 

    It couldn’t be more timely given the current geopolitical state of the world and the imperative of decarbonisation. 

    These are the realities of our times.

    It is more important than ever for Australia to have a strong and sovereign maritime sector, and for us to embrace both the challenges and the opportunities of decarbonisation. 

    The maritime industry is absolutely vital for Australia’s prosperity. 

    As the lyrics of our national anthem state, ours is a nation ‘girt by sea’.

    Our coastline extends across some 60,000 kilometres and includes 12,000 islands.

    It is the great sea roads and maritime highways leading from our shores that connect Australia with the world, and centres us in the Asia-Pacific region. 

    Our society and economy depend utterly on the ships that ply these routes. 

    These are our supply chains.

    Shipping is responsible for over 99 per cent of our nation’s international trade.

    We are the fifth largest user of shipping services in the world, and the world’s largest bulk commodities exporter.

    Our ports handle over 1.6 billion tonnes of cargo, and welcome 29,000 visits every year from international trading ships. 

    A substantial proportion of our domestic freight also depends on coastal shipping. 

    And let’s not forget that the maritime sector is an important employer – ports activities alone account for an extraordinary one in 20 jobs in our country.

    This morning, I’d like to give you an overview of what our government is doing to support your vital industry.

    The Prime Minister has made clear a major focus this term would be supporting industries across the economy to drive productivity, and to do that while also lifting job security and job quality. 

    In the lead up to the Treasurer’s upcoming Reform Roundtable, I intend to host a meeting with key transport and logistics industry representatives, including the maritime sector, to discuss ways to grow the economy and increase productivity. 

    We want to build an economy where growth, wages and productivity rise together.

    And we are committed to modernising Australia’s maritime sector; including through its regulatory framework.

    The Shipping Registration Act came into being in 1981, in very different times.

    Modernising it is another of our Government’s priorities, to ensure it is fit for purpose and supports the long-term sustainability of an Australian strategic fleet. 

    Our independent review of the Shipping Registration Act is now complete. 

    I’d like to thank its leaders — Former Public Service Commissioner Lynelle Briggs, and Nicholas Gaskell, Emeritus Professor of Maritime and Commercial Law at the University of Queensland — for their efforts.

    Lynelle and Nick conducted comprehensive stakeholder consultation as part of their review, and they have incorporated extensive feedback into their report. 

    They are continuing with their parallel review of the Coastal Trading Act 2012, which is due to report later this year.

    Another crucial step we are taking to improve maritime resilience and capability is the establishment of a strategic fleet ― 12 Australian flagged and crewed vessels that will enable the movement of critical cargo during crises and emergencies.  

    Our Government committed funding in the 2024-25 Budget to establish a five-year Strategic Fleet Pilot Program comprising three vessels.

    These will be privately owned, commercially operated and will be available to the Australian Government to requisition in times of need. 

    Tenders for the Pilot program are currently being evaluated through a competitive, open and transparent process that will ensure the government achieves value for money.

    The Strategic Fleet provides the opportunity for growth and transformation in Australia’s maritime sector in a way that supports Australia’s economic prosperity, security and way of life well into the future.

    The Pilot will provide an evidence-base for future proposals to expand the fleet and fully deliver on our Government’s commitment.

    Once procurement for the Pilot Fleet is complete we will make a public announcement regarding the outcome and indicative timing for the first vessels on the water.

    Industry has been heavily involved in shaping the government’s Strategic Fleet policy through consultation processes, and this engagement will continue in the implementation stage.

    Our domestic policy needs to progress our national interests, and it also needs to be in-step with global developments.

    Australia’s presence at International Maritime Organisation enables this.

    Shipping is by nature a global industry, and Australia’s interests are represented in this world forum.

    Australia’s presence at the IMO also enables our engagement with international efforts to reduce emissions and prevent ship-based pollution of all kinds.

    During our first term, our Government supported the IMO to adopt a Revised Strategy on the Reduction of Emissions from Ships, and reach Net Zero emissions by 2050.

    The Strategy’s decarbonisation pathway includes mid‑term measures such as annual fuel intensity targets, a greenhouse gas emissions economic measure, and a reward system for sustainable fuel adoption.

    It sets target reductions of 30 per cent by 2030 and 80 per cent by 2040 compared to 2008 levels, as well as a target of 10 percent for the uptake of zero-emission fuels by 2030.

    In April, the IMO made the historic decision to circulate measures that will achieve these targets.

    Interestingly, the measures also include a ‘feebate’ mechanism that will subsidise green maritime fuels, which supports our Government’s Low Carbon Liquid Fuels policy.

    As our Government was in caretaker mode in April, Australia abstained from voting on these measures at the time. 

    They will be further considered by IMO in October, and if agreed will establish the world’s first ever truly international carbon market. 

    The Government is carefully considering what role it will play in October, and I understand that my department is hosting a roundtable with industry later this week to continue the conversation on how the measures might impact industry.

    The Secretary-General of the IMO is also visiting Australia in August and I hope to catch up with him to discuss Australia’s maritime interests.

    The year 2030, the deadline for the first of the IMO’s targets, is not that far away.

    Our government recognised this in our first term, and we laid plans to ensure that Australia’s maritime industry is prepared for the future, ready to contribute to our national emissions targets, and able to thrive in a decarbonised global economy.

    Now in our second term, we have a strong mandate to continue the work we’ve started.

    There are challenges to meet on the road to decarbonisation, but also incredible opportunities in new jobs and new industries. 

    Our Government’s ambition for a Future Made in Australia will form a comprehensive, coordinated and practical strategy to seize all the benefits on offer.

    As part of the Future Made in Australia plan, the Government is fast-tracking support for our nation’s growing domestic Low Carbon Liquid Fuels, or LCLFs. 

    In March, we announced the delivery of $250 million to accelerate the pace of Australia’s growing domestic LCLF industry. 

    This funding is part of the $1.7 billion Future Made in Australia Innovation Fund, and is being provided as grants to support pre-commercial innovation, demonstration and deployment.

    Australia has all the ingredients to support a thriving biofuels sector – especially if the IMO measure for a global subsidy is adopted and provided.

    We have an abundance of renewable energy resources and significant refining and port infrastructure.

    We have the potential to grow LCLF production for domestic consumption and for export.

    And our Government is committed to supporting a sovereign biofuel industry that Australia controls, and which serves our interests.

    Our Government is committed to maritime decarbonisation, as part of our drive to reach our legislated target of Net Zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

    Our Government will soon release its Net Zero Plan for the economy, along with six sector-decarbonisation plans.

    Amongst these sector plans is one for the Transport and Infrastructure Net Zero Roadmap.

    And within that plan is one that speaks specifically to the unique challenges and opportunities of the maritime industry – the Maritime Emissions Reduction National Action Plan, or MERNAP for short.

    The MERNAP will outline how we aim to support Australia’s national emissions reduction targets, contribute to the global decarbonisation of shipping, and future-proof the Australian maritime sector to avoid costly and disruptive transitions later.

    It will ensure an equitable transition, particularly for the maritime workforce, and it will safeguard jobs and skills for the future.

    Our vision is that by 2050, Australia will fully leverage the global maritime decarbonisation transition, for the benefit of our ports, vessels, and the broader energy sector.

    Work on the MERNAP began in 2023-24, with an industry consultation process, and the MERNAP Consultative Group has played a vital role in shaping this action plan.

    They engaged with us on topics such as:

    • regulatory challenges and gaps
    • energy sources and technologies
    • skills and training
    • and international partnerships.

    I’d like to thank those stakeholders who were part of the group, and especially Angela Gilham and MIAL for the key role they’ve played in this process. 

    I am now considering the MERNAP, and the timing of its release. 

    Our next step will be to develop an implementation plan to progress the MERNAP’s proposed action items. 

    Our Government will continue to progress reform in the maritime sector. We must. 

    There are so many cross currents reshaping global maritime trade right now, and addressing these requires comprehensive and future-focused action.

    No doubt these issues ― and the opportunities ― facing the sector will be discussed at length in coming days, and I wish you well in these.

    Thank you once again for the invitation to speak this morning. 

    I look forward to working with all industry stakeholders in our government’s second term. 

    MIL OSI News –

  • Monsoon alert: IMD predicts heavy rainfall in Saurashtra, Kutch region

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said that conditions are becoming favourable for the further advance of the Southwest Monsoon over the remaining parts of the country within the next two to three days. The monsoon, which has already covered large parts of India, is now poised to extend its reach across the entire nation, bringing much-needed rainfall to several regions.

    According to the latest forecast, heavy to very heavy rainfall activity is expected to continue across many parts of northwest, central, east, and northeast India over the next seven days. Isolated areas in Saurashtra and Kutch are likely to witness extremely heavy rainfall, exceeding 20 cm in 24 hours, particularly on Friday.

    Several states, including Konkan & Goa, the ghat areas of central Maharashtra, and Gujarat, are expected to receive consistent heavy rain throughout the week. Other regions set to witness intense rainfall include Himachal Pradesh and Punjab on June 29, Haryana on June 29 and 30, Uttarakhand from June 27 to July 1, and east Rajasthan and Vidarbha on June 27.

    The IMD has also predicted heavy rainfall in Uttar Pradesh from June 29 to July 2, Madhya Pradesh on June 27 and from July 1 to 3, Chhattisgarh on July 1 and 2, Gangetic West Bengal on June 29 and 30, Odisha on June 30 and July 1, and Jharkhand on June 29. Kerala will also continue to receive heavy rain on June 27 and 28.

    Weather forecast for Delhi-NCR

    In Delhi-NCR, the weather will remain dynamic over the next four days. On June 27, the skies will be partly cloudy with very light to light rain and thunderstorms expected by the afternoon or evening. Temperatures will hover between 36°C and 38°C, with light southeast winds blowing at less than 15 kmph.

    On June 28, the skies will become generally cloudy, and light to moderate rain accompanied by thunderstorms or lightning is expected in the evening or night. Maximum temperatures will dip slightly to between 35°C and 37°C, while minimum temperatures will range between 26°C and 28°C. Winds from the southeast will gradually increase throughout the day, reaching up to 18 kmph by evening.

    June 29 will continue to see generally cloudy skies and light to moderate showers. Temperatures will be cooler, with maximums expected between 32°C and 34°C, and minimums between 25°C and 27°C. Winds will shift from the west to southwest, picking up speed through the day.

    On June 30, Delhiites can expect a similar pattern with cloudy skies and light to moderate rainfall along with thunderstorm activity. Temperatures will remain between 32°C and 34°C during the day and 25°C to 27°C at night, both below seasonal averages. Winds will be calm in the morning but may pick up slightly from the south by evening.

  • MIL-OSI Europe: On the road to COP30: mobilising climate finance | London Climate Action Week (LCAW), Event at the German Embassy

    Source: Deutsche Bundesbank in English

    Check against delivery.

    1 Welcome
    Ladies and Gentlemen, 
    Good afternoon, and thank you for the kind introduction. It is a great honour to be here with you today to discuss the way forward on the road to Belém. 
    First of all, let me thank the German Embassy for organising this event and for bringing together such a distinguished and diverse group of leaders and experts. Events like this are so important, especially in the current context of numerous economic and geopolitical challenges that (threaten to) overshadow climate change. 
    It is essential to have spaces and forums where stakeholders from the public and private sectors, academia and civil society come together to exchange ideas on how to move ahead. The strong attendance here today is testament to our dedication and reflects our shared recognition that the serious risks arising from climate change have to be taken seriously. 
    2 The Role of the NGFS
    I am proud to represent not only the Deutsche Bundesbank but also the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), which I have the honour to chair.
    The NGFS is a global coalition of central banks and supervisors committed to addressing climate and nature-related risks in the financial system. Since its foundation in 2017 the NGFS has grown significantly, today boasting 145 members and observers. Our global and growing membership underscores the increasing international recognition of climate and nature risks.
    Climate change is unfolding rapidly, right in front of our eyes, and poses profound risks to our economies and financial systems. It is more important than ever to continue our independent, data-driven and science-based work. 
    I am very glad to see colleagues from the Bank of England and my fellow Deputy Governor Paulo Picchetti from the Banco Central do Brasil in the audience today. Your institutions have contributed a lot to the work of the NGFS. 
    3 Climate inaction has high economic costs
    The urgency of ambitious climate action cannot be overstated. 
    Work by the NGFS shows economic and financial risks arising due to climate change and nature loss. 
    Last November we released the latest update of our long-term climate scenarios. The scenarios show very clearly that climate inaction has high economic costs. 
    If we stick to current policies, global GDP could be 15 % lower by 2050, compared to a world without climate change.[1] This does not include sea level rises, migration or nature loss.
    I know that 2050 is, in practice, beyond the planning horizon of many corporates and political decision makers. That is why the NGFS has developed short-term climate scenarios with a time horizon of three to five years to help bridge this gap. 
    These scenarios also show that a delayed transition is expensive. Our stress scenarios assume extreme weather events. Our scenarios show that delaying the transition by just three years could reduce global GDP by almost 1 % by 2030.[2]
    The NGFS scenarios are a public good, designed to help financial institutions and the real economy assess the potential impacts of climate change. I encourage you to make use of them to manage climate-related risks. 
    4 Scaling up global climate finance
    Ladies and Gentlemen, addressing climate risks requires a collective effort to align global financial flows with climate goals. 
    To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, global climate finance needs to be significantly scaled up from current levels. 
    The Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3 Trillion is a key initiative in achieving that goal.[3] The roadmap provides a pathway for mobilising the capital needed for the transition to a low-carbon economy. I am particularly excited to hear more about this roadmap from André Corrêa do Lago in a moment.
    The public and the private sector must work hand in hand to scale up climate finance. But the biggest share has to come from the private sector, as public money has its limits and more and more challenges for public money are arising. 
    And I look forward to hearing from other participants here about how the financial sector can help to mobilise climate finance.
    5 The role of the corporate sector
    At the same time, climate finance is only one side of the coin. The other side is the low-carbon transition of industries and businesses. It is important to bring the corporate sector on board.
    They are the ones who will innovate, invest, and implement the changes needed to achieve climate goals. The renewable energy transition is key to addressing climate change. So, the energy sector plays a pivotal role in moving away from fossil fuels.
    I am very happy that Greg Jackson from Octopus Energy will join our discussions and share his insights with us. 
    6 Conclusion
    Ladies and gentlemen, let me conclude. As we move towards COP30, the stakes could not be higher. Last month was the second-warmest May on record globally, just slightly cooler than May 2024.[4]
    Climate change is not a distant threat; it is a present reality. The decisions today will shape the world for generations to come. And let us remember that while the challenges are great, so too are the opportunities.
    Footnotes:

    See: NGFS Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors – Phase V | Network for Greening the Financial System
    NGFS short-term climate scenarios, see: NGFS Short-term Climate Scenarios for central banks and supervisors | Network for Greening the Financial System
    For an overview, see: Baku to Belém Roadmap to 1.3T | UNFCCC
     Second-warmest May globally, dry/wet contrast across Europe in spring | Copernicus

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: 2024-03-27 at 16h49 The four crises and seven structural shifts of the last eight years Prime Minister António Costa took stock of the last years in government

    Source: Government of Portugal (PM)

    António Costa took stock of the government’s action in the last eight years, where he was Prime Minister, during a press conference held in the official residence.<.>

    António Costa also referred to the financial system’s greater stability. “The state-owned bank, which many felt should be privatised and that it would be impossible to capitalise, is today not only solvent, but also generated due revenue for the Portuguese economy and citizens”, the Prime Minister claimed. 

    The wildland fires crisis 

    The second crisis noted by the Prime Minister was that of wildland fires, the answer to which included restructuring the civil protection system and a budget reform, which offered prevention a clear priority over fighting. As a result, “if we were to add up the entire area burnt down in the six years between 2018 and 2023 [the result] is 60.7% of the area burnt down in 2017 alone”, he stressed.

    The Covid-19 pandemic 

    The country’s response to this third crisis was “worthy of note”, claimed the Prime Minister. “We were the first country in the world to reach a vaccination coverage of 85%. And the efforts to support the economy and households allowed us to be one of the countries that best came out of the pandemic”, he added. 

    The inflationist crisis

    The fourth crisis arose from the effects of the pandemic, which was still felt, and the war between Russia and Ukraine. This conflict “worsened a situation that came from the pandemic, with the breakdown in supply chains, which led us to the greatest inflationist crisis of the last 30 years”. 

    The rises in interest rates by the European Central Bank to respond to rising inflation “in a society such as hours where mortgages have a high significance and the variable rates are clearly dominant”, together with rising food costs, shot up household costs. 

    “From the start of 2022 to October 2022, inflation soared. We hit 10.1% inflation in October 2022 and since then we have been on a slow, yet sure, trajectory to lower inflation, until we hit 2.1% last February and the forecast is we will remain on that lowering trajectory”, said the Prime Minister.

    SEVEN STRUCTURAL SHITS

    Higher growth

    The Prime Minister stated that between 2000 and 2015 the country alternated between recession and stagnation. “Only in one year of these 15 did we grow above the European average: in 2009. From 2016 onwards, the reality has been quite different “, he said. “In these eight years, the country grew ten times more than what it had grown in the previous 15”, he signalled, noting the 2.1% growth, including in the two pandemic years, “where product naturally fell drastically”. 

    More jobs and more income

    The creation of jobs and improvement in employment conditions contributed to this economic growth. “Today, we have a record number of people working in Portugal: 5 million people. That is an additional 629 thousand jobs than in 2015. And in a context where it was possible to not just to have minimum wages grow 62%, but also average wages having grown 27.7%”, the Prime Minister indicated.

    In addition to the rise in the minimum wage, the Prime Minister also noted rising pensions and improvement in net income. 

    Always in line with the Social Security Basis Law, in these eight years, average pensions rose 23.3%, “with all the rises set down in the law, as well as extraordinary rises to counter inflation”. 

    The improvement in net income came from the “successive drops in income tax IRS” and the “successive measures of non-monetary transfers that cut household expenses”, such as making school books free, reforming the costs of public transports, increasing the number of households that benefit from energy social rates and the “significant” cut in pubic university fees, that went from more than one thousand euros to 697 euros per annum.

    A more qualified country

    This was the shift the Prime Minister considered “perhaps brings the greatest consequences for the future”. António Costa mentioned the “highly significant” drop in early dropouts, where this year we are below the EU average for 2030, and the rise in the number of youths aged 30 to 34 years who completed higher educaiton in 2015, which can only rise, since “if we look at the youths who are 20 years old, 39% attended university in 2015, and today it’s 54%”. 

    A more competitive economy

    “Every year, we beat records in attracting foreign direct investment. Every year, we beat corporate investment records and corporate investment went up 85% between 2015 and 2023”, the Prime Minister stated, advocating that “what offers a modern economy competitiveness is its capacity to have qualified jobs, being more innovative, and this is what enables that innovation”. 

    António Costa also added that the rise in exports, which in 2022 accounted for more than 50% of GDP, and the change in the nature of exports. “Exports of high and medium tech goods increased 71% over these last eight years, which means that complexifying, qualifying, and the added value of our economy have been clearly on the rise”.

    Less inequality

    “Today we have 600 thousand people less in poverty or social exclusion, and especially 226 thousand children less living in poverty or social exclusion”, said the Prime Minister.

    Taking the lead in fighting climate change

    The sixth shift had to do with the country’s position in taking the lead in fighting climate change. “We were the first country in the world, at the2016 Marrakesh COP to undertake the goal of being carbon neutral by 2050. Our Climate Law imposed on us a greater ambition of hitting that target in 2045 rather than 2050”. 

    Since 2017, Portugal has cut back its GHG emissions by 17% “due to the public transport policy and bringing targets such as closing down coal-fuelled power stations forward and increasing the capacity to generate energy using renewables”, the Prime Minister signalled.

    Advances in the State reform 

    The last structural shift mentioned by the Prime Minister had to do with the advances in the State reform, namely concerning the decentralisation of powers, such as transferring the PSP’s traffic tasks to the Lisbon and Porto municipal police, making Carri or STCP (public transport) municipal, or the agreement with the National Portuguese Municipalities Association (ANMP) to transfer powers. Lastly, António Costa referred to the reform of the Regional Development Coordination Committees (CCDR), that are now more democratised and with greater autonomy. 

    View the Prime Minister’s presentation here 

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: 2024-03-27 at 16h49 The four crises and seven structural shifts of the last eight years Prime Minister António Costa took stock of the last years in government

    Source: Government of Portugal (PM)

    António Costa took stock of the government’s action in the last eight years, where he was Prime Minister, during a press conference held in the official residence.<.>

    António Costa also referred to the financial system’s greater stability. “The state-owned bank, which many felt should be privatised and that it would be impossible to capitalise, is today not only solvent, but also generated due revenue for the Portuguese economy and citizens”, the Prime Minister claimed. 

    The wildland fires crisis 

    The second crisis noted by the Prime Minister was that of wildland fires, the answer to which included restructuring the civil protection system and a budget reform, which offered prevention a clear priority over fighting. As a result, “if we were to add up the entire area burnt down in the six years between 2018 and 2023 [the result] is 60.7% of the area burnt down in 2017 alone”, he stressed.

    The Covid-19 pandemic 

    The country’s response to this third crisis was “worthy of note”, claimed the Prime Minister. “We were the first country in the world to reach a vaccination coverage of 85%. And the efforts to support the economy and households allowed us to be one of the countries that best came out of the pandemic”, he added. 

    The inflationist crisis

    The fourth crisis arose from the effects of the pandemic, which was still felt, and the war between Russia and Ukraine. This conflict “worsened a situation that came from the pandemic, with the breakdown in supply chains, which led us to the greatest inflationist crisis of the last 30 years”. 

    The rises in interest rates by the European Central Bank to respond to rising inflation “in a society such as hours where mortgages have a high significance and the variable rates are clearly dominant”, together with rising food costs, shot up household costs. 

    “From the start of 2022 to October 2022, inflation soared. We hit 10.1% inflation in October 2022 and since then we have been on a slow, yet sure, trajectory to lower inflation, until we hit 2.1% last February and the forecast is we will remain on that lowering trajectory”, said the Prime Minister.

    SEVEN STRUCTURAL SHITS

    Higher growth

    The Prime Minister stated that between 2000 and 2015 the country alternated between recession and stagnation. “Only in one year of these 15 did we grow above the European average: in 2009. From 2016 onwards, the reality has been quite different “, he said. “In these eight years, the country grew ten times more than what it had grown in the previous 15”, he signalled, noting the 2.1% growth, including in the two pandemic years, “where product naturally fell drastically”. 

    More jobs and more income

    The creation of jobs and improvement in employment conditions contributed to this economic growth. “Today, we have a record number of people working in Portugal: 5 million people. That is an additional 629 thousand jobs than in 2015. And in a context where it was possible to not just to have minimum wages grow 62%, but also average wages having grown 27.7%”, the Prime Minister indicated.

    In addition to the rise in the minimum wage, the Prime Minister also noted rising pensions and improvement in net income. 

    Always in line with the Social Security Basis Law, in these eight years, average pensions rose 23.3%, “with all the rises set down in the law, as well as extraordinary rises to counter inflation”. 

    The improvement in net income came from the “successive drops in income tax IRS” and the “successive measures of non-monetary transfers that cut household expenses”, such as making school books free, reforming the costs of public transports, increasing the number of households that benefit from energy social rates and the “significant” cut in pubic university fees, that went from more than one thousand euros to 697 euros per annum.

    A more qualified country

    This was the shift the Prime Minister considered “perhaps brings the greatest consequences for the future”. António Costa mentioned the “highly significant” drop in early dropouts, where this year we are below the EU average for 2030, and the rise in the number of youths aged 30 to 34 years who completed higher educaiton in 2015, which can only rise, since “if we look at the youths who are 20 years old, 39% attended university in 2015, and today it’s 54%”. 

    A more competitive economy

    “Every year, we beat records in attracting foreign direct investment. Every year, we beat corporate investment records and corporate investment went up 85% between 2015 and 2023”, the Prime Minister stated, advocating that “what offers a modern economy competitiveness is its capacity to have qualified jobs, being more innovative, and this is what enables that innovation”. 

    António Costa also added that the rise in exports, which in 2022 accounted for more than 50% of GDP, and the change in the nature of exports. “Exports of high and medium tech goods increased 71% over these last eight years, which means that complexifying, qualifying, and the added value of our economy have been clearly on the rise”.

    Less inequality

    “Today we have 600 thousand people less in poverty or social exclusion, and especially 226 thousand children less living in poverty or social exclusion”, said the Prime Minister.

    Taking the lead in fighting climate change

    The sixth shift had to do with the country’s position in taking the lead in fighting climate change. “We were the first country in the world, at the2016 Marrakesh COP to undertake the goal of being carbon neutral by 2050. Our Climate Law imposed on us a greater ambition of hitting that target in 2045 rather than 2050”. 

    Since 2017, Portugal has cut back its GHG emissions by 17% “due to the public transport policy and bringing targets such as closing down coal-fuelled power stations forward and increasing the capacity to generate energy using renewables”, the Prime Minister signalled.

    Advances in the State reform 

    The last structural shift mentioned by the Prime Minister had to do with the advances in the State reform, namely concerning the decentralisation of powers, such as transferring the PSP’s traffic tasks to the Lisbon and Porto municipal police, making Carri or STCP (public transport) municipal, or the agreement with the National Portuguese Municipalities Association (ANMP) to transfer powers. Lastly, António Costa referred to the reform of the Regional Development Coordination Committees (CCDR), that are now more democratised and with greater autonomy. 

    View the Prime Minister’s presentation here 

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Employers, contractors and employees should be aware of electrical safety at work during rainstorm

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

         As the rainstorm warning has been issued by the Hong Kong Observatory, the Labour Department (LD) reminds employers and contractors that they should adopt necessary work arrangements and take suitable safety measures to protect the safety of their employees when they are carrying out electrical work or handling electrical plant.

         A spokesman for the LD said today (June 26) that employers and contractors should avoid assigning employees to carry out electrical work (like electric arc welding work) or handle electrical plant at places affected by rainstorms, and should refer to the “Code of Practice in Times of Adverse Weather and ‘Extreme Conditions’” and the “Guide on Safety at Work in times of Inclement Weather” issued by the LD.

         Even if electrical work is carried out or electrical plant is handled at places not affected by the rainstorm, suitable safety measures must still be adopted to prevent electric shock as the air would be more humid. Such measures include:

    (i) Ensure that all live parts of an electrical installation are isolated from the power supply source and rendered dead, and the isolation from the power supply source must be maintained as long as electrical work is being carried out;

    (ii) Before carrying out any electrical work or handling any electrical plant, cut off and lock out the power supply source, then test the circuit concerned to confirm it is dead and display suitable warning notices, and issue a work permit thereafter;

    (iii) Ensure that protective devices (such as suitable and adequate fuses and circuit breakers) for the electrical installations or electrical plant have been installed and maintained in good working order, and portable electric tools must be double-insulated or properly earthed;

    (iv) Provide suitable personal protective equipment such as insulating gloves and insulating mats for employees; and

    (v) If live electrical work is unavoidable, a comprehensive risk assessment should be conducted by a competent person and the appropriate safety precautions should be taken to remove or properly control the electrical hazards involved before such work can proceed.

         In addition, employees should co-operate with the employer or contractor to follow the safety instructions and use the safety equipment provided.

         The LD has published guidebooks and leaflets on electrical work safety. These safety publications are available free from divisional offices of the department or can be downloaded from its website (www.labour.gov.hk/eng/public/content2_8.htm).

         Should there be any questions about occupational safety and health matters, please contact the Occupational Safety Officer of the LD at 2559 2297.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 27, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 27, 2025.

    Travelling with food allergies? These 8 tips can help you stay safer in the skies
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer Koplin, Evidence and Translation Lead, National Allergy Centre of Excellence; Chief Investigator, Centre of Food Allergy Research; Associate Professor and Group Leader, Childhood Allergy & Epidemiology Group, Child Health Research Centre, The University of Queensland Anchiy/Getty Images With the school holidays approaching, many families will be

    Cats at 40: a dazzling cast – stuck in an outdated show
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Karen Cummings, Lecturer in Singing, University of Sydney The star of the 40th anniversary production of Cats – which premiered at the Theatre Royal Sydney last week – is the performing ensemble. Some ensemble scenes, such as The Jellicle Ball, offered the same joy and exhilaration as

    Earth is trapping much more heat than climate models forecast – and the rate has doubled in 20 years
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Sherwood, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney NASA, CC BY-NC-ND How do you measure climate change? One way is by recording temperatures in different places over a long period of time. While this works well, natural variation can make it harder to

    The NDIA is changing how it pays for disability supports. What does that mean for rural communities?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edward Johnson, Lecturer in Social Entrepreneurship and Co-Founder of Umbo, University of Sydney Shutterstock Each year, the National Disability Insurance Agency (NDIA) reviews its pricing rules to ensure services funded under the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) remain sustainable. This year’s annual pricing review outlines changes that

    1 in 5 community footy umpires have been assaulted, while others cop death threats: new research
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alyson Crozier, Senior Lecturer, Exercise and Sport Psychology, University of South Australia Scott Barbour/Getty Images Umpires’ decisions often upset sports fans, especially during a close contest. At most games, spectators boo loudly, coaches throw their hands up in frustration and players can yell or even physically intimidate

    NATO’s 5% of GDP defence target ramps up pressure on Australia to spend vastly more
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jennifer Parker, Adjunct Fellow, Naval Studies at UNSW Canberra, and Expert Associate, National Security College, Australian National University After lobbying by US President Donald Trump, NATO leaders have promised to boost annual defence spending to 5% of their countries’ gross domestic product (GDP) by 2035. A NATO

    Beyond playgrounds: how less structured city spaces can nurture children’s creativity and independence
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jose Antonio Lara-Hernandez, Senior Researcher in Architecture, Auckland University of Technology Getty Images Children’s play is essential for their cognitive, physical and social development. But in cities, spaces to play are usually separated, often literally fenced off, from the rest of urban life. In our new study,

    Lung cancer screening is about to start. What you need to know if you smoke or have quit
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Olver, Adjunct Professsor, School of Psychology, Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences, University of Adelaide Magic mine/Shutterstock From July, eligible Australians will be screened for lung cancer as part of the nation’s first new cancer screening program for almost 20 years. The program aims to detect

    The drought in southern Australia is not over – it just looks that way
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew B. Watkins, Associate research scientist, School of Earth, Atmopshere & Environment, Monash University Andrew Watkins How often do you mow your lawn in winter? That may seem like an odd way to start a conversation about drought. But the answer helps explain why our current drought

    One bad rainstorm away from disaster: why proposed changes to forestry rules won’t solve the ‘slash’ problem
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Bloomberg, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Te Kura Ngahere-New Zealand School of Forestry, University of Canterbury Murry Cave/Gisborne District Council, CC BY-SA The biggest environmental problems for commercial plantation forestry in New Zealand’s steep hill country are discharges of slash (woody debris left behind after logging) and sediment

    Whatever happened to the Albanese government’s wellbeing agenda?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Sollis, Research Fellow, University of Tasmania DavideAngelini/Shutterstock The Albanese government devoted time and energy in its first term to developing a wellbeing agenda for the economy and society. It was a passion project of Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who wanted better ways to measure national welfare beyond

    What do the Bible, the Quran and the Torah say about the justification for war?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robyn J. Whitaker, Associate Professor, New Testament, & Director of The Wesley Centre for Theology, Ethics, and Public Policy, University of Divinity Wars are often waged in the name of religion. So what do key texts from Christianity, Islam and Judaism say about the justification for war?

    Brands want us to trust them. But as the SPF debacle shows, they need to earn it
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Harrison, Director, Master of Business Administration Program (MBA); Co-Director, Better Consumption Lab, Deakin University It’s quite unsettling to discover something so central to our cultural rituals – the “slop” in the Aussie mantra of “Slip! Slop! Slap!” – can no longer be trusted. We’ve never really

    Streaming giants have helped bring Korean dramas to the world – but much is lost in translation
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sung-Ae Lee, Lecturer, Macquarie University In less than a decade, Korean TV dramas (K-dramas) have transmuted from a regional industry to a global phenomenon – partly a consequence of the rise of streaming giants. But foreign audiences may not realise the K-dramas they’ve seen on Netflix don’t

    ‘Don’t surrender’ to Indonesian pressure over West Papua, Bomanak warns MSG
    Asia Pacific Report A West Papuan independence movement leader has warned the Melanesian Spearhead Group after its 23rd leaders summit in Suva, Fiji, to not give in to a “neocolonial trade in betrayal and abandonment” over West Papua. While endorsing and acknowledging the “unconditional support” of Melanesian people to the West Papuan cause for decolonisation,

    Grattan on Friday: Jim Chalmers juggles expectations and ambition in pursuing tax reform
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Next week will be the 40th anniversary of the Hawke government’s tax summit. Dominated by then treasurer Paul Keating’s unsuccessful bid to win support for a consumption tax, it was the public centrepiece of an extraordinary political and policy story.

    There’s gold trapped in your iPhone – and chemists have found a safe new way to extract it
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justin M. Chalker, Professor of Chemistry, Flinders University A sample of refined gold recovered from mining and e-waste recycling trials. Justin Chalker In 2022, humans produced an estimated 62 million tonnes of electronic waste – enough to fill more than 1.5 million garbage trucks. This was up

    Politics with Michelle Grattan: Ken Henry on changing the tax system to give struggling workers a fairer go
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra In August, the Albanese government will hold an economic “roundtable” that will discuss productivity, budget sustainability and resilience. Australia’s tax system will be one of the central issues, and stakeholders are gearing up with their varying arguments for changes. Ken

    As one of Shakespeare’s least performed plays, Coriolanus is startlingly relevant under Trump 2.0
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kirk Dodd, Lecturer in English and Writing, University of Sydney Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare Coriolanus is one of Shakespeare’s least performed plays; perhaps because the hero is so pugnacious and classist, impressive in his strident vehemence, but lacking the vulnerability of a Macbeth or Othello. Set in the

    Magpies may not be a pesky Australian import – new research finds their ancestors thrived in NZ a long time ago
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanesa De Pietri, Senior Research Fellow in Palaeontology, University of Canterbury Shutterstock/Russ Jenkins For many New Zealanders, the Australian magpie is a familiar, if sometimes vexing, sight. Introduced from Australia in the 1860s, magpies are known for their territorial dive-bombing during nesting season, which has cemented their

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI China: China, Britain deepen green finance cooperation with new work stream

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Financial professionals and experts from China and Britain on Thursday formally launched a joint work stream in London, in a bid to strengthen bilateral cooperation on sustainable finance and biodiversity protection.

    The UK-China Nature and Biodiversity Finance Work Stream, initiated by the China-UK Green Finance Taskforce and co-led by Bank of China and Standard Chartered, will focus on cross-border collaboration and innovation in areas such as natural capital valuation, biodiversity-related disclosure tools and nature-focused investment mechanisms.

    The launch coincided with a high-level forum hosted by Bank of China’s London branch, titled “From Policy to Impact: A Global Perspective on the Current State of Sustainable Development.” The forum, part of the official program of this year’s London Climate Action Week, brought together over 100 participants from financial institutions, government agencies, regulators, think tanks and academia across China, Britain and Europe.

    “Green finance and sustainable development have become central to global high-quality growth and the transformation of financial systems,” said Fang Wenjian, CEO of Bank of China (UK) Limited, during the forum’s opening remarks.

    Charles Bowman, co-chair of the China-UK Green Finance Taskforce, said the initiative came at a critical time. “We must accelerate global capital flows to tackle the climate crisis,” he said. “China and the UK are co-leading this effort through their net-zero commitments and renewable energy investments.”

    London Climate Action Week, founded in 2019 by climate think tank E3G and the Mayor of London’s office, serves as a global platform for policymakers, business leaders, investors and academics to advance climate action and sustainable development. 

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC – No MDs are in effect as of Fri Jun 27 02:02:01 UTC 2025

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Current Mesoscale DiscussionsUpdated:  Fri Jun 27 02:05:02 UTC 2025 No Mesoscale Discussions are currently in effect.

    Notice:  The responsibility for Heavy Rain Mesoscale Discussions has been transferred to the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) on April 9, 2013. Click here for the Service Change Notice.
    Archived Convective ProductsTo view convective products for a previous day, type in the date you wish to retrieve (e.g. 20040529 for May 29, 2004). Data available since January 1, 2004.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Earth is trapping much more heat than climate models forecast – and the rate has doubled in 20 years

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Steven Sherwood, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW Sydney

    NASA, CC BY-NC-ND

    How do you measure climate change? One way is by recording temperatures in different places over a long period of time. While this works well, natural variation can make it harder to see longer-term trends.

    But another approach can give us a very clear sense of what’s going on: track how much heat enters Earth’s atmosphere and how much heat leaves. This is Earth’s energy budget, and it’s now well and truly out of balance.

    Our recent research found this imbalance has more than doubled over the last 20 years. Other researchers have come to the same conclusions. This imbalance is now substantially more than climate models have suggested.

    In the mid-2000s, the energy imbalance was about 0.6 watts per square metre (W/m2) on average. In recent years, the average was about 1.3 W/m2. This means the rate at which energy is accumulating near the planet’s surface has doubled.

    These findings suggest climate change might well accelerate in the coming years. Worse still, this worrying imbalance is emerging even as funding uncertainty in the United States threatens our ability to track the flows of heat.

    Energy in, energy out

    Earth’s energy budget functions a bit like your bank account, where money comes in and money goes out. If you reduce your spending, you’ll build up cash in your account. Here, energy is the currency.

    Life on Earth depends on a balance between heat coming in from the Sun and heat leaving. This balance is tipping to one side.

    Solar energy hits Earth and warms it. The atmosphere’s heat-trapping greenhouse gases keep some of this energy.

    But the burning of coal, oil and gas has now added more than two trillion tonnes of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. These trap more and more heat, preventing it from leaving.

    Some of this extra heat is warming the land or melting sea ice, glaciers and ice sheets. But this is a tiny fraction. Fully 90% has gone into the oceans due to their huge heat capacity.

    Earth naturally sheds heat in several ways. One way is by reflecting incoming heat off of clouds, snow and ice and back out to space. Infrared radiation is also emitted back to space.

    From the beginning of human civilisation up until just a century ago, the average surface temperature was about 14°C. The accumulating energy imbalance has now pushed average temperatures 1.3-1.5°C higher.

    Ice and reflective clouds reflect heat back to space. As the Earth heats up, most trapped heat goes into the oceans but some melts ice and heats the land and air. Pictured: Icebergs from the Jacobshavn glacier in Greenland, the largest outside Antarctica.
    Ashley Cooper/Getty

    Tracking faster than the models

    Scientists keep track of the energy budget in two ways.

    First, we can directly measure the heat coming from the Sun and going back out to space, using the sensitive radiometers on monitoring satellites. This dataset and its predecessors date back to the late 1980s.

    Second, we can accurately track the build-up of heat in the oceans and atmosphere by taking temperature readings. Thousands of robotic floats have monitored temperatures in the world’s oceans since the 1990s.

    Both methods show the energy imbalance has grown rapidly.

    The doubling of the energy imbalance has come as a shock, because the sophisticated climate models we use largely didn’t predict such a large and rapid change.

    Typically, the models forecast less than half of the change we’re seeing in the real world.

    Why has it changed so fast?

    We don’t yet have a full explanation. But new research suggests changes in clouds is a big factor.

    Clouds have a cooling effect overall. But the area covered by highly reflective white clouds has shrunk, while the area of jumbled, less reflective clouds has grown.

    It isn’t clear why the clouds are changing. One possible factor could be the consequences of successful efforts to reduce sulfur in shipping fuel from 2020, as burning the dirtier fuel may have had a brightening effect on clouds. However, the accelerating energy budget imbalance began before this change.

    Natural fluctuations in the climate system such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation might also be playing a role. Finally – and most worryingly – the cloud changes might be part of a trend caused by global warming itself, that is, a positive feedback on climate change.

    Dense blankets of white clouds reflect the most heat. But the area covered by these clouds is shrinking.
    Adhivaswut/Shutterstock

    What does this mean?

    These findings suggest recent extremely hot years are not one-offs but may reflect a strengthening of warming over the coming decade or longer.

    This will mean a higher chance of more intense climate impacts from searing heatwaves, droughts and extreme rains on land, and more intense and long lasting marine heatwaves.

    This imbalance may lead to worse longer-term consequences. New research shows the only climate models coming close to simulating real world measurements are those with a higher “climate sensitivity”. That means these models predict more severe warming beyond the next few decades in scenarios where emissions are not rapidly reduced.

    We don’t know yet whether other factors are at play, however. It’s still too early to definitively say we are on a high-sensitivity trajectory.

    Our eyes in the sky

    We’ve known the solution for a long time: stop the routine burning of fossil fuels and phase out human activities causing emissions such as deforestation.

    Keeping accurate records over long periods of time is essential if we are to spot unexpected changes.

    Satellites, in particular, are our advance warning system, telling us about heat storage changes roughly a decade before other methods.

    But funding cuts and drastic priority shifts in the United States may threaten essential satellite climate monitoring.

    Steven Sherwood receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Mindaroo Foundation.

    Benoit Meyssignac receives funding from the European Commission, the European Space Agency and the French National Space Agency.

    Thorsten Mauritsen receives funding from the European Research Council, the European Space Agency, the Swedish Research Council, the Swedish National Space Agency and the Bolin Centre for Climate Research.

    – ref. Earth is trapping much more heat than climate models forecast – and the rate has doubled in 20 years – https://theconversation.com/earth-is-trapping-much-more-heat-than-climate-models-forecast-and-the-rate-has-doubled-in-20-years-258822

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Climate Report – Global Drought Hotspots Report Catalogs Severe Suffering, Economic Damage

    Source: United Nations – Convention to Combat Desertification

    Food, water, energy crises, human tragedies in 2023-2025 detailed in sweeping analysis by U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification.

    Fuelled by climate change and relentless pressure on land and water resources, some of the most widespread and damaging drought events in recorded history have taken place since 2023, according to a UN-backed report launched today.

    Prepared by the U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) and the UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), with support from the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA), the report “Drought Hotspots Around the World 2023-2025” provides a comprehensive account of how droughts compound poverty, hunger, energy insecurity, and ecosystem collapse.

    Says UNCCD Executive Secretary Ibrahim Thiaw: “Drought is a silent killer. It creeps in, drains resources, and devastates lives in slow motion. Its scars run deep.”

    “Drought is no longer a distant threat,” he adds. “It is here, escalating, and demands urgent global cooperation. When energy, food, and water all go at once, societies start to unravel. That’s the new normal we need to be ready for.”

    “This is not a dry spell,” says Dr. Mark Svoboda, report co-author and NDMC Founding Director. “This is a slow-moving global catastrophe, the worst I’ve ever seen. This report underscores the need for systematic monitoring of how drought affects lives, livelihoods, and the health of the ecosystems that we all depend on.”

    “The Mediterranean countries represent canaries in the coal mine for all modern economies,” he adds. “The struggles experienced by Spain, Morocco and Türkiye to secure water, food, and energy under persistent drought offer a preview of water futures under unchecked global warming. No country, regardless of wealth or capacity, can afford to be complacent.”

    A wide-ranging crisis

    The new report synthesizes information from hundreds of government, scientific and media sources to highlight impacts within the most acute drought hotspots in Africa (Somalia, Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Malawi, Botswana, Namibia), the Mediterranean (Spain, Morocco, Türkiye), Latin America (Panama, Amazon Basin), Southeast Asia, and beyond.

    Africa: 

    • Over 90 million people across Eastern and Southern Africa face acute hunger. Some areas have been enduring their worst ever recorded drought.
    • Southern Africa, already drought-prone, was devastated with roughly 1/6th of the population (68 million) needing food aid in August 2024. 
    • In Ethiopia, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and Malawi, maize and wheat crops have failed repeatedly. In Zimbabwe alone, the 2024 corn crop was down 70% year on year, and maize prices doubled while 9,000 cattle died of thirst and starvation. 
    • In Somalia, the government estimated 43,000 people died in 2022 alone due to drought-linked hunger. As of early 2025, 4.4 million people – a quarter of the population – face crisis-level food insecurity, including 784,000 expected to reach emergency levels.
    • Zambia suffered one of the world’s worst energy crises as the Zambezi River in April 2024 plummeted to 20% of its long-term average. The country’s largest hydroelectric plant, the Kariba Dam, fell to 7% generation capacity, causing blackouts of up to 21 hours per day and shuttering hospitals, bakeries, and factories.

    Mediterranean:

    • Spain: Water shortages hit agriculture, tourism, and domestic supply. By September 2023, two years of drought and record heat caused a 50% drop in Spain’s olive crop, causing its olive oil prices to double across the country. 
    • Morocco: The sheep population was 38% smaller in 2025 relative to 2016, prompting a royal plea to cancel traditional Eid sacrifices.
    • Türkiye: Drought accelerated groundwater depletion, triggering sinkholes that present hazards to communities and their infrastructure while permanently reducing aquifer storage capacity.

    Latin America:

    • Amazon Basin: Record-low river levels in 2023 and 2024 led to mass deaths of fish and endangered dolphins, and disrupted drinking water and transport for hundreds of thousands. As deforestation and fires intensify, the Amazon risks transitioning from a carbon sink to a carbon source.
    • Panama Canal: Water levels dropped so low that transits were slashed by over one-third (from 38 to 24 ships daily between October 2023 and January 2024), causing major global trade disruptions. Facing multi-week delays, many ships were rerouted to longer, costlier paths via the Suez Canal or South Africa’s infamous Cape of Good Hope. Among the knock-on effects, U.S. soybean exports slowed, and UK grocery stores reported shortages and rising prices of fruits and vegetables.

    Southeast Asia:

    • Drought disrupted production and supply chains of key crops such as rice, coffee, and sugar. In 2023-2024, dry conditions in Thailand and India, for example, triggered shortages leading to a 8.9% increase in the price of sugar in the US.

    “A Perfect Storm” of El Niño and climate change

    The 2023–2024 El Niño event amplified already harsh climate change impacts, triggering dry conditions across major agricultural and ecological zones. Drought’s impacts hit hardest in climate hotspots, regions already suffering from warming tr

    MIL OSI – Submitted News –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Roadmap to strengthen emergency management system

    Source: New Zealand Government

    The Government has agreed in principle to an investment and implementation roadmap to strengthen New Zealand’s emergency management system so it can manage major to severe emergencies, Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced today.

    “This roadmap is part of our response to the Government Inquiry into the North Island Severe Weather Events and complements the work underway to develop a new Emergency Management Bill,” says Mr Mitchell. 

    “New Zealand is facing more frequent and severe weather events, and we need to ensure our emergency management system is fit for purpose to manage significant, widespread emergencies like Cyclone Gabrielle.

    “The roadmap sets out the initiatives needed in the next five years to deliver the change we need.”

    Key initiatives include:

    • Regional support teams based around New Zealand to provide surge support during and following emergencies and boost regional workforce capability.
    • A refreshed and increased Resilience Fund to empower more communities to prepare for and respond to emergencies.
    • Agreements and partnerships with businesses, iwi/Māori and community organisations to enhance local readiness.
    • Professional pathways to expand the emergency management workforce and build capability.
    • Proactive procurement and placement of critical equipment and supplies.
    • A Common Operating Picture to support shared situational awareness and decision-making.

    “Investments in modern technology and trained personnel, along with clear governance structures and assurance, will ensure faster, more effective emergency response and recovery, better coordination across agencies, and more resilient communities. 

    “These investments will address critical gaps, improving our ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover from a range of emergencies.”

    The National Emergency Management Agency will prioritise activity that can be delivered from its current baselines and go back to Government for proposed initiatives that will require new funding from future budgets.

    View the roadmap at: https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/emergency-management-system-improvement-programme 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: One bad rainstorm away from disaster: why proposed changes to forestry rules won’t solve the ‘slash’ problem

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Bloomberg, Adjunct Senior Fellow, Te Kura Ngahere-New Zealand School of Forestry, University of Canterbury

    Murry Cave/Gisborne District Council, CC BY-SA

    The biggest environmental problems for commercial plantation forestry in New Zealand’s steep hill country are discharges of slash (woody debris left behind after logging) and sediment from clear-fell harvests.

    During the past 15 years, there have been 15 convictions of forestry companies for slash and sediment discharges into rivers, on land and along the coastline.

    Such discharges are meant to be controlled by the National Environmental Standards for Commercial Forestry, which set environmental rules for forestry activities such as logging roads and clear-fell harvesting. The standards are part of the Resource Management Act (RMA), which the government is reforming.

    The government revised the standards’ slash-management rules in 2023 after Cyclone Gabrielle. But it it is now consulting on a proposal to further amend the standards because of cost, uncertainty and compliance issues.

    We believe the proposed changes fail to address the core reasons for slash and sediment discharges.

    We recently analysed five convictions of forestry companies under the RMA for illegal discharges. Based on this analysis, which has been accepted for publication in the New Zealand Journal of Forestry, we argue that the standards should set limits to the size and location of clear-felling areas on erosion-susceptible land.

    Why the courts convicted 5 forestry companies

    In the aftermath of destructive storms in the Gisborne district during June 2018, five forestry companies were convicted for breaches of the RMA for discharges of slash and sediment from their clear-fell harvesting operations. These discharges resulted from landslides and collapsed earthworks (including roads).

    There has been a lot of criticism of forestry’s performance during these storms and subsequent events such as Cyclone Gabrielle. However, little attention has been given to why the courts decided to convict the forestry companies for breaches of the RMA.

    The courts’ decisions clearly explain why the sediment and slash discharges happened, why the forestry companies were at fault, and what can be done to prevent these discharges in future on erosion-prone land.

    New Zealand’s plantation forest land is ranked for its susceptibility to erosion using a four-colour scale, from green (low) to red (very high). Because of the high erosion susceptibility, additional RMA permissions (consents) for earthworks and harvesting are required on red-ranked areas.

    This map shows areas with the highest and lowest susceptibility to erosion.
    David Palmer/Te Uru Rākau, CC BY-SA

    New Zealand-wide, only 7% of plantation forests are on red land. A further 17% are on orange (high susceptibility) land. But in the Gisborne district, 55% of commercial forests are on red land. This is why trying to manage erosion is such a problem in Gisborne’s forests.

    Key findings from the forestry cases

    In all five cases, the convicted companies had consents from the Gisborne District Council to build logging roads and clear-fell large areas covering hundreds or even thousands of hectares.

    A significant part of the sediment and slash discharges originated from landslides that were primed to occur after the large-scale clear-fell harvests. But since the harvests were lawful, these landslides were not relevant to the decision to convict.

    Instead, all convictions were for compliance failures where logging roads and log storage areas collapsed or slash was not properly disposed of, even though these only partly contributed to the collective sediment and slash discharges downstream.

    The court concluded that:

    1. Clear-fell harvesting on land highly susceptible to erosion required absolute compliance with resource consent conditions. Failures to correctly build roads or manage slash contributed to slash and sediment discharges downstream.

    2. Even with absolute compliance, clear-felling on such land was still risky. This was because a significant portion of the discharges were due to the lawful activity of cutting down trees and removing them, leaving the land vulnerable to landslides and other erosion.

    The second conclusion is critical. It means that even if forestry companies are fully compliant with the standards and consents, slash and sediment discharges can still happen after clear-felling. And if this happens, councils can require companies to clean up these discharges and prevent them from happening again.

    This is not a hypothetical scenario. Recently, the Gisborne District Council successfully applied to the Environment Court for enforcement orders requiring clean-up of slash deposits and remediation of harvesting sites. If the forestry companies fail to comply, they can be held in contempt of court.

    A typical scale of clear-felling affected by the June 2018 storms.
    Murry Cave/Gisborne District Council, CC BY-SA

    Regulations are not just red tape

    This illustrates a major problem with the standards that applies to erosion-susceptible forest land everywhere in New Zealand, not just in the Gisborne district. Regulations are not just “red tape”. They provide certainty to businesses that as long as they are compliant, their activities should be free from legal prosecution and enforcement.

    The courts’ decisions and council enforcement actions show that forestry companies can face considerable legal risk, even if compliant with regulatory requirements for earthworks and harvesting.

    Clear-felled forests on erosion-prone land are one bad rainstorm away from disaster. But with well planned, careful harvesting of small forest areas, this risk can be kept at a tolerable level.

    However, the standards and the proposed amendments do not require small clear-fell areas on erosion-prone land. If this shortcoming is not fixed, communities and ecosystems will continue to bear the brunt of the discharges from large-scale clear-fell harvests.

    To solve this problem, the standards must proactively limit the size and location of clear-felling areas on erosion-prone land. This will address the main cause of catastrophic slash and sediment discharges from forests, protecting communities and ecosystems. And it will enable forestry companies to plan their harvests with greater confidence that they will not be subject to legal action.

    Mark Bloomberg receives funding from the government’s Envirolink fund and from local authorities and forestry companies. He is a member of the NZ Institute of Forestry and the NZ Society of Soil Science.

    Steve Urlich does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. One bad rainstorm away from disaster: why proposed changes to forestry rules won’t solve the ‘slash’ problem – https://theconversation.com/one-bad-rainstorm-away-from-disaster-why-proposed-changes-to-forestry-rules-wont-solve-the-slash-problem-258280

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The drought in southern Australia is not over – it just looks that way

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew B. Watkins, Associate research scientist, School of Earth, Atmopshere & Environment, Monash University

    Andrew Watkins

    How often do you mow your lawn in winter? That may seem like an odd way to start a conversation about drought. But the answer helps explain why our current drought has not broken, despite recent rain – and why spring lamb may be more expensive this year.

    Southern Australia has been short of rain for 16 months. Western Victoria, the agricultural regions of South Australia (including Adelaide) and even parts of western Tasmania are suffering record dry conditions. Those rainfall measurements began in 1900 (126 years ago).

    Large parts of southeastern Australia have experienced the lowest rainfall on record over the past 16 months. Serious deficiency means among the driest 10% of such periods on record, Severe deficiency means among the driest 5%.
    Bureau of Meteorology

    Fewer and less intense rain-bearing weather systems have been crossing the southern coastline since February 2024, compared to normal. Put simply, the land has not received enough big dumps of rain.

    But June has finally brought rain to some drought-affected regions. There’s even an emerald green tinge to the fields in certain agricultural areas. But it’s now too cold for plants to really grow fast, meaning farmers will be carting hay and buying extra feed for livestock until the weather warms in spring.

    Lambs in the Adelaide Hills have little to eat without extra feed.
    Saskia Jones

    Too little, too late

    This month, some areas received good rainfall – including places near Melbourne and, to a lesser degree, Adelaide. City people may be forgiven for thinking the drought has broken and farmers are rejoicing. But drought is not that simple.

    Unfortunately, the rainfall was inconsistent, especially further inland. The coastal deluge in parts of southern Australia in early June didn’t extend far north. Traditionally, the start of the winter crop-growing season is marked by 25mm of rain over three days – a so-called “autumn break”. But many areas didn’t receive the break this year.

    The lack of rain (meteorological drought) compounded the lack of water in the soil for crops and pasture (agricultural drought). Parts of Western Australia, SA, Victoria, Tasmania and southern New South Wales had little moisture left in their soils. So some rain is quickly soaked up as it drains into deeper soils.

    To make matters worse, autumn was the warmest on record for southern Australia, following its second-warmest summer on record. This can increase the “thirst” of the atmosphere, meaning any water on the surface is more likely to evaporate. Recent thirsty droughts, such as the 2017–19 Tinderbox Drought in NSW, were particularly hard-hitting.

    Some areas may have experienced “flash drought”, which is when the landscape and vegetation dry up far quicker than you would expect from the lack of rain alone. By May, areas of significantly elevated evaporative stress were present in southeastern SA, Victoria, southern NSW and northern Tasmania.

    In late May and early June, and again this week, there have been winter dust storms in SA. Such dust storms are a bad sign of how dry the ground has become.

    Some regions no longer have enough water to fill rivers and dams (hydrological drought). Water restrictions have been introduced in parts of southwest Victoria and Tasmania. The bureau’s streamflow forecast does not look promising.

    The landscape near Mortlake in western Victoria was still dry in late May. Typically the autumn break (first post-summer rain event of more than 25 mm) occurs here by early May.
    Andrew Watkins

    A green drought

    Remember that lawn mowing analogy? The winter chill has already set in across the south. This means it’s simply too cold for any vigorous new grass growth, and why you are not mowing your lawn very often at the moment.

    Cool temperatures, rather than just low rainfall, also limit pasture growth. While from a distance the rain has added an emerald sheen to some of the landscape, it’s often just a green tinge. Up close, it’s clear there is very limited new growth.

    Rather than abundant and vigorous new shoots, there’s just a little bit of green returning to surviving grasses. This means there’s very limited feed for livestock. To make matters worse, sometimes the green comes from better-adapted winter weeds.

    There will be a lot of hay carting, regardless of rainfall, until spring when the soils start to warm up once again and new growth returns. This all adds up to fewer stock kept in paddocks or a big extra cost in time and money for farmers – and ultimately, a more expensive spring lamb barbecue.

    Is this climate change?

    Southern Australia (southern WA, SA, Tasmania, Victoria and southern NSW) used to experience almost weekly rain events in autumn and early winter. Cold fronts and deep low-pressure systems rolling in from the west brought the bulk of the rainfall.

    Now there is a far more sporadic pattern in these regions. Rainfall in the April to October crop and pasture growing season has declined by around 10–20% since the middle of last century. The strongest drying trend is evident during the crucial months between April and July.

    Further reductions in southern growing season rainfall are expected by the end of this century, especially in southwestern Australia. Southeastern regions, including southern Victoria, parts of SA and northern Tasmania, also show a consistent drying trend, with a greater time spent in drought every decade.

    Drought is complex. Just because it’s raining doesn’t always mean it has rained enough, or at the right time, or in the right place. To make matters worse, a green drought can even deceive us into thinking everything is fine.

    Breaking the meteorological drought will require consistent rainfall over several months. Breaking the agricultural drought will also require more warmth in the soils. Outlooks suggest we may have to wait for spring.

    This article includes scientific contributions from David Jones and Pandora Hope from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.



    Read more:
    Why is southern Australia in drought – and when will it end?

    Ailie Gallant receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Environmental Science Program Climate Systems Hub.

    Pallavi Goswami works at Monash University. She receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program, Climate Systems Hub.

    Andrew B. Watkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The drought in southern Australia is not over – it just looks that way – https://theconversation.com/the-drought-in-southern-australia-is-not-over-it-just-looks-that-way-259543

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Spotlight on NDC 3.0: Scaling Ambition and Action in Africa at SB62 Side Event

    Source: African Development Bank Group

    As countries gathered in Bonn for the 62nd session of the UNFCCC Subsidiary Bodies (SB62), a high-level side event titled “Making the Investment Case for African NDCs”, co-organized by the African Development Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), brought much-needed focus to the importance of making African Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) more holistic, implementable, and investment-ready.

    The event provided a timely platform to elevate African perspectives and showcase ongoing efforts to align climate ambition with long-term development priorities and financial viability as countries prepare their next generation of NDCs (NDC 3.0).

    Opening the discussion, Margaret Athieno Mwebesa, Commissioner of Uganda’s Climate Change Department, welcomed the Bank’s ongoing technical support in conducting the stock take for Uganda’s current Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) as part of the NDC 3.0 process. She emphasized the critical link between financing and implementation, noting:

    “Without investments, our NDCs are as good as useless. With less than 10% of Uganda’s NDC financing mobilized as of 2024, we must do more to make our climate plans truly bankable.”

    In a compelling keynote, Prof. Anthony Nyong, Director for Climate Change and Green Growth at the African Development Bank, highlighted the urgency of scaling support for climate investment in Africa and the need for strengthened partnerships: “Africa does not lack ambition. What it needs is partnership, investment, and systems-level support,” he stated. “Let us move beyond doom and gloom. Africa is ripe for climate-smart investment—home to 70 percent of its infrastructure yet to be built, rich in renewables, and holding vast reserves of arable land and critical minerals.”

    He also highlighted the Bank’s Climate financing milestones—growing from nine percent to 55 percent climate finance commitment between 2016 – 2023 and outlined tools such as the Africa NDC Hub, Adaptation Benefits Mechanism, and Climate Action Window, all designed to unlock investment-ready, country-driven climate actions.

    Ms. Sung-Ah Kyun, Associate Director of Climate Strategy and Delivery of the EBRD and co-Chair of the MDB Policy and Country/Client Engagement Working Group, added, “MDBs have been collectively working to support countries in developing and implementing their NDCs and LTS, including at sectoral and subnational levels, and are accelerating these efforts through the MDB LTS Program, launched at COP28 and hosted under World Bank’s Climate Support Facility”

    The event featured a moderated country dialogue, exploring the evolving experiences of Botswana, Ghana, and Zimbabwe in developing and implementing their NDCs.

    Representing Ghana, Seidu Issifu, Minister of State for Climate Change and Sustainability, reflected on Ghana’s progress and outlook. He emphasized the country’s financing needs—between $9.3 billion and $15 billion for the 2021–2030 period—and called for increased support in identifying and scaling sectoral investment opportunities, especially in energy, transport, and agriculture.

    From Botswana, Balisi Gopolang, Director of Climate Change, shared lessons learned from their second NDC submission. He noted that while the initial INDC process was new and unfamiliar, Botswana is now better positioned to mobilize partnerships, with a focus on energy investments that span both mitigation and adaptation goals.

    Lovemore Dhoba, Deputy Director for Climate Change in Zimbabwe, presented the country’s recently submitted NDC 3.0, which prioritizes the integration of cross-cutting issues such as gender and youth. He reaffirmed Zimbabwe’s commitment to aligning climate ambitions with development priorities through effective institutional coordination.

    The panel discussion, moderated by Uzoamaka Nwamarah, Climate Change Advisor, The Commonwealth Secretariat, brought together experts from development partners and UN agencies to reflect on how they are supporting African countries in strengthening NDCs.

    Davinah Milenge Uwella, Chief Programme Coordinator at the African Development Bank, spoke about Africa NDC Hub, hosted by the Bank, which brings together 21 other member partners to coordinate Technical Assistance support to African countries to prepare and implement NDCs, Long-Term Strategies, National Adaptation Plans and Biennial Transparency Report.

    She emphasized the Africa NDC Hub’s ongoing role in providing coordinated technical assistance, with over 10 countries provided with NDC and strategies development support. Paola Ridolfi, Climate Change Adviser at the World Bank, emphasized the importance of evidence-based investment planning and highlighted the role of the World Bank’s Country Climate and Development Reports in unlocking climate finance and aligning investments with development pathways.

    From UNDP, Catherine Diam-Valla, Co-Lead of the UNDP Climate Promise 2025, highlighted the broad footprint of the Climate Promise initiative, supporting countries to embed NDCs into national development frameworks, strengthen climate budgeting and transparency systems, and build access to carbon markets.

    Chiagozie Udeh, Programme Specialist at UNFPA, stressed the need for NDCs to reflect population dynamics, gender equality, and youth empowerment for inclusive, people-centered climate action. “The climate crisis is not just about emissions—it’s about people. We must ensure our NDCs are responsive to social realities.”

    The session also featured a technical presentation by Lucy Naydenova, Adaptation Benefits Mechanism Expert at the African Development Bank, on a practical guide for a holistic approach to NDC 3.0, focusing on how adaptation outcomes can be monetized to crowd in private investment.

    Prof. Nyong concluded by affirming the “Bank’s commitment to working hand-in-hand with partners—governments, MDBs, the private sector, and civil society to ensure that Africa’s climate goals are not only well-articulated, but well-financed and effectively implemented.”

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Top of the South weather and State Highway update

    Source: New Zealand Transport Agency

    UPDATE 8:20 am:
    Bad weather and flooding are causing further state highway closures in the top of the South Island this morning.

    Drivers must stay off weather-affected highways while they remain closed and avoid any unnecessary travel.

    Nelson/Tasman

    Flooding has closed State Highway 6 between Belgrove and Richmond.

    State Highway 60 has also been closed across its entire length from Richmond to Collingwood because of flooding at multiple locations.

    Marlborough

    State Highway 63 now has a full closure from St Arnaud to Anglesea Street in  Renwick

    Update: 6:50am

    With heavy rain affecting the top of the South Island overnight, and continuing to fall this morning, road crews are attending multiple incidents on state highways across the region.

    Wet weather driving conditions apply and road users can experience traffic management at multiple locations due to flooding, rockfalls, and slips.

    Nelson/Tasman

    Rob Service, System Manager, says there are multiple flooding and slips sites in the Nelson/Tasman region

    “State Highway 6 near Wakefield, is under a temporary closure for light vehicles due to flooding.”

    “State Highway 60 at the Riwaka/Kaiteriteri intersection is also affected by flooding and slips have also been reported on the Tākaka Hill,” Mr Service says.

    There is also localised  flooding at the Three Brothers intersection (SH6/SH60), as well as in Brightwater, Belgrove, and Kohatu.

    Mr Service says with heavy rain still falling, the potential for further disruption on local highways remains

    “It is essential drivers take extreme caution on the roads while the bad weather continues. Road crews are  attending multiple incidents and are doing their best to resolve issues as they arise.”

    Marlborough

    Flooding has closed State Highway 63 in Renwick between Anglesea Street and Inkerman Street. Local road detours are available, and drivers can expect delays.

    System Manager  Wayne Oldfield says surface flooding has also been reported at multiple sites.

    “This includes State Highway 6 at Havelock, State Highway 63 in the Wairau Valley, and State Highway 1 near Koromiko.”

    “These sections of highway are currently open, but driving conditions are challenging. While the rain continues to fall, drivers must be prepared for road hazards and the possibility of road closures,” Mr Old field says.

    General advice

    The Metservice has regional weather warnings in place until this afternoon and evening for both Nelson/Tasman and Marlborough. This means the risk of flooding, slips, rockfalls remains ongoing.

    Drivers must check road and weather conditions before they travel and avoid any area where highways are  closed due to bad weather.

    All road closures must be obeyed. They are there to keep the public safe.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Hickenlooper Cheers Senate Passage of Bipartisan Colorado River Conservation Bill

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator John Hickenlooper – Colorado
    Program supports Colorado River water users as they explore innovative strategies to conserve water
    Bipartisan bill extends Conservation Pilot Program through 2026
    WASHINGTON – U.S. Senator John Hickenlooper cheered Senate passage of his bipartisan Colorado River Basin System Conservation Extension Act. The bill extends the System Conservation Pilot Program, which supports voluntary water conservation projects to manage drought on the Colorado River. U.S. Senators John Barrasso, Michael Bennet, Cynthia Lummis, and John Curtis are cosponsors of the bill. Representative Harriet Hageman leads the House version of the bill. 
    The bill now needs to pass the House before it gets signed into law. 
    “We don’t need to sit around waiting for a silver bullet while the Colorado River runs dry,” said Hickenlooper. “It will take every tool at our disposal to keep water flowing to all seven basin states. Voluntary conservation is a big part of that. We’re committed to getting this bill across the finish line.”
    This legislation extends the pilot program through 2026 as Colorado River Basin states, the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, and other stakeholders continue discussions on potential long-term water management once current operational rules expire in 2026. The pilot program will help the Upper Basin examine water management strategies that can help water users manage prolonged and severe drought.
    Hickenlooper and Barrasso’s bipartisan Colorado River Basin Conservation Act,which reauthorized the System Conservation Pilot Program through 2024, was signed into law in the Fiscal Year 2023 omnibus government funding bill. In 2023, the System Conservation Pilot Program received $125 million, made possible by the Inflation Reduction Act, to enable the Bureau of Reclamation, in partnership with the Upper Colorado River Commission, to implement the System Conservation Pilot Program.
    The Bureau of Reclamation’s authorization to spend SCPP funds expired in December 2024. In 2024, the Colorado River Basin System Conservation Extension Act passed the Senate, but stalled in the House. Funding for the program must be renewed in 2025 for it to continue. 
    As governor, Hickenlooper helped negotiate the 2019 Colorado River Basin Drought Contingency Plan, which helped protect critical levels at Lake Powell and Lake Mead and ensured continued compliance with the 1922 Colorado River Compact. 
    Full text of the bill is available HERE.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Toxic algae blooms are lasting longer than before in Lake Erie − why that’s a worry for people and pets

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Gregory J. Dick, Professor of Biology, University of Michigan

    A satellite image from Aug. 13, 2024, shows an algal bloom covering approximately 320 square miles (830 square km) of Lake Erie. By Aug. 22, it had nearly doubled in size. NASA Earth Observatory

    Federal scientists released their annual forecast for Lake Erie’s harmful algal blooms on June 26, 2025, and they expect a mild to moderate season. However, anyone who comes in contact with toxic algae can face health risks. And 2014, when toxins from algae blooms contaminated the water supply in Toledo, Ohio, was a moderate year, too.

    We asked Gregory J. Dick, who leads the Cooperative Institute for Great Lakes Research, a federally funded center at the University of Michigan that studies harmful algal blooms among other Great Lakes issues, why they’re such a concern.

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s prediction for harmful algal bloom severity in Lake Erie compared with past years.
    NOAA

    1. What causes harmful algal blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms are dense patches of excessive algae growth that can occur in any type of water body, including ponds, reservoirs, rivers, lakes and oceans. When you see them in freshwater, you’re typically seeing cyanobacteria, also known as blue-green algae.

    These photosynthetic bacteria have inhabited our planet for billions of years. In fact, they were responsible for oxygenating Earth’s atmosphere, which enabled plant and animal life as we know it.

    The leading source of harmful algal blooms today is nutrient runoff from fertilized farm fields.
    Michigan Sea Grant

    Algae are natural components of ecosystems, but they cause trouble when they proliferate to high densities, creating what we call blooms.

    Harmful algal blooms form scums at the water surface and produce toxins that can harm ecosystems, water quality and human health. They have been reported in all 50 U.S. states, all five Great Lakes and nearly every country around the world. Blue-green algae blooms are becoming more common in inland waters.

    The main sources of harmful algal blooms are excess nutrients in the water, typically phosphorus and nitrogen.

    Historically, these excess nutrients mainly came from sewage and phosphorus-based detergents used in laundry machines and dishwashers that ended up in waterways. U.S. environmental laws in the early 1970s addressed this by requiring sewage treatment and banning phosphorus detergents, with spectacular success.

    How pollution affected Lake Erie in the 1960s, before clean water regulations.

    Today, agriculture is the main source of excess nutrients from chemical fertilizer or manure applied to farm fields to grow crops. Rainstorms wash these nutrients into streams and rivers that deliver them to lakes and coastal areas, where they fertilize algal blooms. In the U.S., most of these nutrients come from industrial-scale corn production, which is largely used as animal feed or to produce ethanol for gasoline.

    Climate change also exacerbates the problem in two ways. First, cyanobacteria grow faster at higher temperatures. Second, climate-driven increases in precipitation, especially large storms, cause more nutrient runoff that has led to record-setting blooms.

    2. What does your team’s DNA testing tell us about Lake Erie’s harmful algal blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms contain a mixture of cyanobacterial species that can produce an array of different toxins, many of which are still being discovered.

    When my colleagues and I recently sequenced DNA from Lake Erie water, we found new types of microcystins, the notorious toxins that were responsible for contaminating Toledo’s drinking water supply in 2014.

    These novel molecules cannot be detected with traditional methods and show some signs of causing toxicity, though further studies are needed to confirm their human health effects.

    Blue-green algae blooms in freshwater, like this one near Toledo in 2014, can be harmful to humans, causing gastrointestinal symptoms, headache, fever and skin irritation. They can be lethal for pets.
    Ty Wright for The Washington Post via Getty Images

    We also found organisms responsible for producing saxitoxin, a potent neurotoxin that is well known for causing paralytic shellfish poisoning on the Pacific Coast of North America and elsewhere.

    Saxitoxins have been detected at low concentrations in the Great Lakes for some time, but the recent discovery of hot spots of genes that make the toxin makes them an emerging concern.

    Our research suggests warmer water temperatures could boost its production, which raises concerns that saxitoxin will become more prevalent with climate change. However, the controls on toxin production are complex, and more research is needed to test this hypothesis. Federal monitoring programs are essential for tracking and understanding emerging threats.

    3. Should people worry about these blooms?

    Harmful algal blooms are unsightly and smelly, making them a concern for recreation, property values and businesses. They can disrupt food webs and harm aquatic life, though a recent study suggested that their effects on the Lake Erie food web so far are not substantial.

    But the biggest impact is from the toxins these algae produce that are harmful to humans and lethal to pets.

    The toxins can cause acute health problems such as gastrointestinal symptoms, headache, fever and skin irritation. Dogs can die from ingesting lake water with harmful algal blooms. Emerging science suggests that long-term exposure to harmful algal blooms, for example over months or years, can cause or exacerbate chronic respiratory, cardiovascular and gastrointestinal problems and may be linked to liver cancers, kidney disease and neurological issues.

    The water intake system for the city of Toledo, Ohio, is surrounded by an algae bloom in 2014. Toxic algae got into the water system, resulting in residents being warned not to touch or drink their tap water for three days.
    AP Photo/Haraz N. Ghanbari

    In addition to exposure through direct ingestion or skin contact, recent research also indicates that inhaling toxins that get into the air may harm health, raising concerns for coastal residents and boaters, but more research is needed to understand the risks.

    The Toledo drinking water crisis of 2014 illustrated the vast potential for algal blooms to cause harm in the Great Lakes. Toxins infiltrated the drinking water system and were detected in processed municipal water, resulting in a three-day “do not drink” advisory. The episode affected residents, hospitals and businesses, and it ultimately cost the city an estimated US$65 million.

    4. Blooms seem to be starting earlier in the year and lasting longer – why is that happening?

    Warmer waters are extending the duration of the blooms.

    In 2025, NOAA detected these toxins in Lake Erie on April 28, earlier than ever before. The 2022 bloom in Lake Erie persisted into November, which is rare if not unprecedented.

    Scientific studies of western Lake Erie show that the potential cyanobacterial growth rate has increased by up to 30% and the length of the bloom season has expanded by up to a month from 1995 to 2022, especially in warmer, shallow waters. These results are consistent with our understanding of cyanobacterial physiology: Blooms like it hot – cyanobacteria grow faster at higher temperatures.

    5. What can be done to reduce the likelihood of algal blooms in the future?

    The best and perhaps only hope of reducing the size and occurrence of harmful algal blooms is to reduce the amount of nutrients reaching the Great Lakes.

    In Lake Erie, where nutrients come primarily from agriculture, that means improving agricultural practices and restoring wetlands to reduce the amount of nutrients flowing off of farm fields and into the lake. Early indications suggest that Ohio’s H2Ohio program, which works with farmers to reduce runoff, is making some gains in this regard, but future funding for H2Ohio is uncertain.

    In places like Lake Superior, where harmful algal blooms appear to be driven by climate change, the solution likely requires halting and reversing the rapid human-driven increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

    Gregory J. Dick receives funding for harmful algal bloom research from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Science Foundation, the United States Geological Survey, and the National Institutes for Health. He serves on the Science Advisory Council for the Environmental Law and Policy Center.

    – ref. Toxic algae blooms are lasting longer than before in Lake Erie − why that’s a worry for people and pets – https://theconversation.com/toxic-algae-blooms-are-lasting-longer-than-before-in-lake-erie-why-thats-a-worry-for-people-and-pets-259954

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Less Than a Month Left to Apply for FEMA Assistance for South Texas Severe Storms and Flooding

    Source: US Federal Emergency Management Agency

    Headline: Less Than a Month Left to Apply for FEMA Assistance for South Texas Severe Storms and Flooding

    Less Than a Month Left to Apply for FEMA Assistance for South Texas Severe Storms and Flooding

    AUSTIN, Texas – Texas residents who have been affected by the March severe storms and flooding have less than a month left to apply for FEMA assistance

    Homeowners and renters in Cameron, Hidalgo, Starr and Willacy counties who were displaced or have property damage from the March 26-28 storms have until Tuesday, July 22, 2025, to submit an application for FEMA assistance

    After the deadline, survivors can still upload information and submit paperwork to their FEMA account

    To date, FEMA has approved more than $59

    2 million in federal and state assistance for Texas survivors

    There are many types of assistance available for survivors who need help covering costs for things like rental expenses, home repairs, vehicle damage, medical expenses, moving and storage, and reimbursement for temporary housing

    There are three ways to apply:Visit a Disaster Recovery Center

    To find a center close to you, go online to: DRC Locator, or text DRC along with your Zip Code to 43362 (Ex: DRC 78552)

    Go online to DisasterAssistance

    govDownload the FEMA App for mobile devices Call the FEMA helpline at 800-621-3362 between 6 a

    m

    and 10 p

    m

    CT

    Help is available in most languages

     To view an accessible video about how to apply visit: Three Ways to Register for FEMA Disaster Assistance – YouTubeResidents and businesses in the four eligible counties can also apply for a low-interest disaster loan from the U

    S

    Small Business Administration (SBA) to help recover

    Texas residents can apply for a disaster loan online at SBA

    gov/disaster or by calling 800-659-2955

     To find a Texas location for in-person assistance, visit appointment

    sba

    gov/schedule/

    No appointment is necessary

    For more information about the loans available and how to apply, visit: SBA Loans Are a Meaningful Option for Texas Storm Survivors

    For the latest information about Texas’ recovery, visit fema

    gov/disaster/4871

    Follow FEMA Region 6 on social media at x

    com/FEMARegion6 and at facebook

    com/FEMARegion6/
    toan

    nguyen
    Thu, 06/26/2025 – 18:38

    MIL OSI USA News –