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  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Health Investigation – Rights of man were breached by social workers says Deputy Commissioner 19HDC01187

    Source: Health and Disability Commissioner

    A man’s rights under the Code of Health and Disability Services Consumers’ Rights were breached by two psychiatric social workers, said the Deputy Health and Disability Commissioner in a decision released today. Deborah James said the social workers’ actions represented a serious departure from the appropriate standard of care the man should have received.
    The man lived with schizophrenia and was experiencing deteriorating mental health. After a suicide attempt, the man was taken to a police station for a mental health assessment. There, he was assessed by two psychiatric social workers.
    A risk assessment form was completed but important information was missed such as his suicidal ideation and previous suicide attempts. The social workers also did not give appropriate weight to the fact of the man’s suicide attempt on that day, and they relied too heavily on the man’s self-reporting. Neither social worker consulted a psychiatrist, or other clinician, contacted the man’s wife or his other support worker, or followed the Health New Zealand guidance for safety planning.
    They recorded him as a low risk to himself and others, developed an overnight safety plan which involved medication, refraining from drugs and alcohol, and calling the mental health crisis team if needed, and sent him home. The man took his life later that day.
    The man’s wife complained to HDC saying he should have been taken to hospital and that he was three days overdue for his schizophrenia medication, despite requesting it. The social workers reported that although the man requested his usual injection for managing schizophrenia, they agreed this could wait and be done by a registered nurse the next day.
    One social worker expressed the view that because of her lack of familiarity with the man, she had less responsibility at key parts of his care. Ms James stated “I remain of the view that, as she was present and assisting with the assessment, she could have acted at any point to remedy the failures identified.”
    Deborah James noted that the other social worker was a junior and said, “I consider that if Ms B did not have the requisite skills and training, once she recognised this while assessing Mr A, she should have sought further support, rather than continuing”.
    Ms James made an adverse comment about the clinical note taking of both social workers, and against Health NZ for issues identified in the report with resourcing and training of mental health staff.
    Ms James’ recommendations acknowledged that considerable time had passed since the events and both social workers had undertaken significant extra training in their practice. She encouraged them to further reflect on the events and report back to HDC, including on any further training they have taken up, which they both did. She also acknowledged Health NZ had made several relevant and appropriate changes in its policies and procedures, so made no further recommendations. 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Health Investigation – Post birth care of baby boy breaches the Code 22HDC00236

    Source: Health and Disability Commissioner

    In a report published today, Deputy Health and Disability Commissioner Rose Wall has found Health NZ Te Toka Tumai Auckland breached the Code of Health and Disability Services Consumers’ Rights (the Code) for failures in the care of a baby boy in his first hours post-delivery.
    The baby, born at Auckland hospital at full term gestation, required transfer to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU). At 10.5 hours post birth he was assessed as having mild hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy [1] (HIE) with some features of moderate HIE. Months later he was diagnosed with cerebral palsy.
    At the time of the incident, national guidelines outlined that standard practice was to manage babies at high risk of HIE after birth by conducting an initial neurological assessment, followed by subsequent ‘serial’ observations every hour for six hours.
    In this case, the initial Baby Newborn Record, which includes neurological testing, was only partially completed and there was no documentation of neurological assessment in the admission note to the NICU.
    The junior registrar who attended the birth and accompanied the infant to NICU should have completed this documentation. She told HDC that neurological checks would likely have been performed as part of managing other procedures and that, due to a heavy and complex clinical workload that day, there had not been an opportunity to review paperwork.
    Ms Wall accepted that the initial neurological examination was likely done, and made an adverse comment about the registrar’s incomplete documentation, noting the importance of ensuring a full and complete picture of the baby’s health be available for all others responsible for his care from that point on.
    Ms Wall found that the required subsequent hourly monitoring did not occur.
    “On review of the available information, it is apparent that this baby did not receive any further specific neurological assessment or serial monitoring in line with his risk, as required under the national guidelines,” said Ms Wall.
    Although the registrar was responsible for the baby’s care, Ms Wall considered the failure was attributable to Health NZ at an organisational level.
    Ms Wall said Health NZ had a duty to ensure that the services the baby received complied with legal, professional, ethical and other relevant standards. She found Health NZ breached the Code for failing to provide an appropriate standard of care | Tautikanga.
    The breach covered several shortcomings in care:
    – The registrar was not provided with encephalopathy training in a timely manner.
    – The orientation booklet did not include information about neonatal encephalopathy, or refer to specific guidelines to guide practice.
    – There were no internal policies and procedures in place to ensure that babies at high risk of HIE were managed and monitored using serial Sarnat scoring, in accordance with national guidance on neonatal encephalopathy in place at the time.
    “I am critical that Health NZ did not have in place sufficient policies and procedures to support its staff adequately regarding the baby’s neurological assessments and monitoring,” Ms Wall said.
    Since the events, HNZ has made changes, including the development of Auckland-specific protocols and processes and an Auckland guideline for managing babies at risk of encephalopathy, along with changes to orientation and training (including changes to the orientation booklet).
    Taking into account the changes already made, Ms Wall made several further recommendations for Health NZ and the registrar.
    [1] Disturbed neurological function in the earliest days of life. 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A year on from the Senate inquiry into concussion, what’s changed and what comes next?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Annette Greenhow, Assistant Professor, Faculty of Law, Bond University

    In September 2023, an Australian Senate committee released a landmark report on concussions and repeated head trauma in contact sports.

    The committee made 13 recommendations to improve outcomes for past, present and future players.

    The report emphasised shared responsibility and transparency in developing a national approach, with the government to lead nine of the recommendations.

    As of October 2024, no official government update has been provided.

    We’ve assessed the status of the recommendations – of the publicly available sources, we found evidence of action in some areas but no national strategy in directly addressing the focus of several key recommendations.

    As part of this review, we searched the websites of the Australian government’s Department of Health and Aged Care and the Australian Sports Commission/Australian Institute of Sport (ASC/AIS).

    We approached the Senate committee secretary and the Department of Health and Aged Care for more information but neither was able to comment.

    We acknowledge there is likely more work going on behind the scenes, and these processes take time.

    Here’s what we found.

    Progress being made

    In the past year, there has been progress made with several recommendations including those addressing community awareness, education and guidelines for amateur and youth sports.

    The AIS continues to engage in health-led efforts with a suite of resources aimed at increasing community awareness and education.

    In June this year, the institute published a new set of return-to-play guidelines specifically targeting community and youth athletes.

    This represents a tangible response from a federally funded sporting body.

    However, these guidelines must be easily implemented by clubs. To date, there is no indication the government plans to increase funding or resources to clubs to help do so.

    The committee also called for national sporting organisations to “further explore rule modifications to prevent and reduce the impact of concussions and repeated head trauma, prioritising modifications for children and adolescents”.

    Several major sporting codes have modified their rules and we expect them to remain focused on rule modifications to ensure the longevity of their sports.

    General practitioners (GPs) are often the first port of call after a concussion, and the committee recommended the development of standardised guidelines for GPs and first aid responders.

    This addresses concerns that GPs may require additional training in treating sport-related brain trauma.

    In response, the AIS developed a free, online short course for registered GPs.

    Work in progress, or lack of progress?

    There appears to be work in progress or a lack of progress elsewhere, including key recommendations for a National Sports Injury Database (NSID) and professional sport data sharing.

    The inquiry highlighted how patchy data collection had contributed to evidence gaps in understanding sports injury management and surveillance. The committee’s most urgent recommendation therefore was for the government to establish the NSID.

    This would work closely with another recommendation that called for professional sport codes to collect and share de-identified concussion and sub-concussive event data with the NSID.

    As of October 2024, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare reports the NSID is still under development and is not yet ready to receive data.

    Other recommendations related to research – establishing an independent research pathway, ongoing funding commitments and a co-ordinated and consolidated funding framework.

    These recommendations called for the government’s existing agencies, or a newly created body, to coordinate research on the effects of concussion and repeated head trauma.

    No new dedicated sports-related concussion research pathways have emerged since the inquiry.

    In terms of funding commitments, in April this year – after former rugby league star Wally Lewis’s National Press Club appearance – Dementia Australia reported the government had pledged $A18 million for concussion and CTE support services and education.



    Read more:
    Why a portrait of a former NRL great could spark greater concussion awareness in Australia

    The May 2024 federal budget allocated $132.7 million to boost sports participation from grassroots to high performance. But this did not address concussion and repeated head trauma, and we haven’t been able to find evidence of a co-ordinated and consolidated funding framework.

    Our view is concussion funding pools should be primarily focused on supporting independent research projects. However, sporting bodies clearly need to be involved – they provide access to athlete populations and most people in these organisations have a genuine care for athlete welfare.

    Another recommendation called for a national concussion strategy. This should focus on binding return-to-play protocols and rules to protect participants from head injuries.

    The recommendation included a role for government and whether any existing government bodies would be best placed to monitor, oversee and/or enforce concussion-related rules and protocols.

    In our view, this recommendation involves much more than producing guidelines. It requires a more comprehensive national strategy, with consideration to monitoring compliance and enforcement.

    We could not find any evidence indicating the current status of this recommendation.

    Increased funding and support for affected athletes were also focus areas.

    These recommendations called for a review to address barriers to workers’ compensation and ensure adequate insurance arrangements remain in place.

    We could not find any evidence of whether state and territory governments are involved in the reviews of workers compensation to apply to professional athletes.

    The committee recommenced the government consider measures to increase donations to brain banks for scientific research.

    We couldn’t find any evidence of steps taken to implement this recommendation.

    Moving forward

    There has been progress in education and guidelines but a lack of the coordinated, transparent approach the committee envisioned.

    A formal government response, as demonstrated in Canada and the United Kingdom, is essential to establish trust and chart a clear path forward.

    The Australian government, as guardian of the Australian public’s health, has an opportunity to do the same.

    Annette Greenhow receives funding from SSHRC Partnership Development Grant. Annette is a Board Member of the Australian and New Zealand Sports Law Association. The views expressed in this article are her own.

    Stephen Townsend does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A year on from the Senate inquiry into concussion, what’s changed and what comes next? – https://theconversation.com/a-year-on-from-the-senate-inquiry-into-concussion-whats-changed-and-what-comes-next-239929

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Humanising AI could lead us to dehumanise ourselves

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Raffaele F Ciriello, Senior Lecturer in Business Information Systems, University of Sydney

    Shutterstock

    Irish writer John Connolly once said:

    The nature of humanity, its essence, is to feel another’s pain as one’s own, and to act to take that pain away.

    For most of our history, we believed empathy was a uniquely human trait – a special ability that set us apart from machines and other animals. But this belief is now being challenged.

    As AI becomes a bigger part of our lives, entering even our most intimate spheres, we’re faced with a philosophical conundrum: could attributing human qualities to AI diminish our own human essence? Our research suggests it can.

    Digitising companionship

    In recent years, AI “companion” apps such as Replika have attracted millions of users. Replika allows users to create custom digital partners to engage in intimate conversations. Members who pay for Replika Pro can even turn their AI into a “romantic partner”.

    Physical AI companions aren’t far behind. Companies such as JoyLoveDolls are selling interactive sex robots with customisable features including breast size, ethnicity, movement and AI responses such as moaning and flirting.

    While this is currently a niche market, history suggests today’s digital trends will become tomorrow’s global norms. With about one in four adults experiencing loneliness, the demand for AI companions will grow.

    The dangers of humanising AI

    Humans have long attributed human traits to non-human entities – a tendency known as anthropomorphism. It’s no surprise we’re doing this with AI tools such as ChatGPT, which appear to “think” and “feel”. But why is humanising AI a problem?

    For one thing, it allows AI companies to exploit our tendency to form attachments with human-like entities. Replika is marketed as “the AI companion who cares”. However, to avoid legal issues, the company elsewhere points out Replika isn’t sentient and merely learns through millions of user interactions.

    Some AI companies overtly claim their AI assistants have empathy and can even anticipate human needs. Such claims are misleading and can take advantage of people seeking companionship. Users may become deeply emotionally invested if they believe their AI companion truly understands them.

    This raises serious ethical concerns. A user will hesitate to delete (that is, to “abandon” or “kill”) their AI companion once they’ve ascribed some kind of sentience to it.

    But what happens when said companion unexpectedly disappears, such as if the user can no longer afford it, or if the company that runs it shuts down? While the companion may not be real, the feelings attached to it are.

    Empathy – more than a programmable output

    By reducing empathy to a programmable output, do we risk diminishing its true essence? To answer this, let’s first think about what empathy really is.

    Empathy involves responding to other people with understanding and concern. It’s when you share your friend’s sorrow as they tell you about their heartache, or when you feel joy radiating from someone you care about. It’s a profound experience – rich and beyond simple forms of measurement.

    A fundamental difference between humans and AI is that humans genuinely feel emotions, while AI can only simulate them. This touches on the hard problem of consciousness, which questions how subjective human experiences arise from physical processes in the brain.

    Science has yet to solve the hard problem of consciousness.
    Shutterstock

    While AI can simulate understanding, any “empathy” it purports to have is a result of programming that mimics empathetic language patterns. Unfortunately, AI providers have a financial incentive to trick users into growing attached to their seemingly empathetic products.

    The dehumanAIsation hypothesis

    Our “dehumanAIsation hypothesis” highlights the ethical concerns that come with trying to reduce humans to some basic functions that can be replicated by a machine. The more we humanise AI, the more we risk dehumanising ourselves.

    For instance, depending on AI for emotional labour could make us less tolerant of the imperfections of real relationships. This could weaken our social bonds and even lead to emotional deskilling. Future generations may become less empathetic – losing their grasp on essential human qualities as emotional skills continue to be commodified and automated.

    Also, as AI companions become more common, people may use them to replace real human relationships. This would likely increase loneliness and alienation – the very issues these systems claim to help with.

    AI companies’ collection and analysis of emotional data also poses significant risks, as these data could be used to manipulate users and maximise profit. This would further erode our privacy and autonomy, taking surveillance capitalism to the next level.

    Holding providers accountable

    Regulators need to do more to hold AI providers accountable. AI companies should be honest about what their AI can and can’t do, especially when they risk exploiting users’ emotional vulnerabilities.

    Exaggerated claims of “genuine empathy” should be made illegal. Companies making such claims should be fined – and repeat offenders shut down.

    Data privacy policies should also be clear, fair and without hidden terms that allow companies to exploit user-generated content.

    We must preserve the unique qualities that define the human experience. While AI can enhance certain aspects of life, it can’t – and shouldn’t – replace genuine human connection.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Humanising AI could lead us to dehumanise ourselves – https://theconversation.com/humanising-ai-could-lead-us-to-dehumanise-ourselves-240803

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Appointments – Members, Companies Auditors Disciplinary Board

    Source: Australian Treasurer

    The Albanese Government has today appointed Mr Michael Bray, Ms Julie Williams and Mr Matthew Green as part‑time accounting members of the Companies Auditors Disciplinary Board (CADB) for a three‑year period.

    The CADB is an independent disciplinary body established by Part 11 of the Australian Securities and Investments Commission Act 2001 (ASIC Act).

    CADB receives and reviews applications made to it by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority in respect of registered company auditors under the Corporations Act 2001.

    Mr Bray specialises in financial statement audits in specialist industries with complex accounting and auditing issues. He has extensive experience in a number current and previous roles including as a Professor of Practice at Deakin University, a Director at the Australian Business Reporting Leaders Forum and a Special Adviser to the Chief Connectivity and Integrated Reporting Officer of the International Financial Reporting Standards Foundation.

    Ms Williams has many years experience as a registered liquidator and is well‑versed in the financial regulatory framework, including the Corporations legislation. Her experience includes membership of the board of the Institute of Public Accountants where she chaired the IPA’s disciplinary committee and served as President between 2020 and 2023.

    Mr Green is a partner at Forvis Mazars and a registered company auditor. He has a breadth of experience that includes providing audit and assurance services specialising in corporate reporting, accounting and auditing requirements, corporate law and governance, risk assessment and corporate transactions and valuations.

    The Government has also reappointed Ms Adeline Hiew as a part‑time business member and Mr Tony Brain and Ms Ann‑Maree Robertson as part‑time accounting members of the CADB.

    These appointments will continue the high level of skills and experience available to the CADB, to help ensure that the key sectors of our economy are effectively regulated.

    MIL OSI News –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: APEC Reinforces Ethical Standards, Drives Global Impact in Health-Related Sectors Lima, Peru | 21 October 2024 APEC Small and Medium Enterprises Working Group Senior stakeholders from across the Asia-Pacific convened in Lima last month to drive action to enhance ethical practices, reinforcing APEC’s leadership in promoting sustainable growth and fair competition for SMEs.

    Source: APEC – Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation

    Dedicated to advancing ethical standards in health-related sectors, senior stakeholders from across the Asia-Pacific convened in Lima last month to drive action to enhance ethical practices, reinforcing APEC’s leadership in promoting sustainable growth and fair competition for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).

    “Ethical business practices are not just about doing the right thing—they are about creating environments where businesses can thrive, where innovation can flourish and where societies can prosper,” said Diane Farrell, Deputy Under Secretary for International Trade at the US Department of Commerce, upon opening the 2024 APEC Business Ethics for Small and Medium Enterprises Forum.

    Endorsed by APEC Small and Medium Enterprises Ministers in 2011 and recognized by APEC Economic Leaders in 2012, the Business Ethics for APEC SMEs Initiative is the world’s largest public-private partnership promoting ethical business practices in health-related sectors. 

    The APEC Kuala Lumpur Principles for medical technology industry and Mexico City Principles for biopharmaceutical industry guide nearly 20,000 enterprises and set a global benchmark for ethical conduct, supported by industry and governments alike.

    “By prioritizing ethical standards, we not only enhance competitiveness but also ensure that small and medium enterprises are well-positioned to thrive in the future economy,” said Aaron Sydor, Chair of the APEC Small and Medium Enterprises Working Group. 

    “We are also empowering the region’s SMEs with the tools they need to operate with integrity and transparency in an increasingly complex global market,” Sydor added.

    This year’s forum advanced government strategies to encourage ethical practices with Chile announced a pilot program to promote enterprise integrity through public procurement, and Mexico introduced a new partnership to align SMEs with the Kuala Lumpur and the Mexico City principles. 

    The forum also marked the international launch of the US Consensus Framework, expanding ethical standards across the APEC region, as well as the expansion of the Peru Consensus Framework with new public and private signatories, boosting momentum for ethical collaboration in health systems.

    Consensus frameworks are critical to advancing ethical business conduct to support small businesses within health systems and represent each economy’s commitment to strengthening collaboration. This includes adherence to rules within respective health systems and alignment of ethical principles across diverse stakeholders. 

    “When ethical practices are prioritized, patient outcomes improve. This Initiative is crucial in ensuring that ethical considerations are embedded in every aspect of healthcare, ultimately leading to better care for patients across the region,” said David Reddy, director general of the International Federation of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers and Associations.

    The 2024 forum promoted mentorship for medical technology and biopharmaceutical industry associations to embed these principles in their codes of ethics, and for the first time, addressed the role of women’s leadership in this effort.

    “APEC has a unique opportunity to champion ethical leadership that is inclusive and gender balanced. This means not only supporting women in leadership roles but also ensuring that ethical considerations are integrated into all aspects of economic policymaking,” said Dr Rebecca Sta Maria, executive director of the APEC Secretariat.

    The commitments made at the forum will play a pivotal role in shaping health-related sectors globally. APEC’s strong leadership in promoting ethical business practices is crucial to driving sustainable growth and public health, empowering SMEs to thrive in an increasingly complex global market.

    “Effective government strategies serve as a catalyst for ethical transformation across industries, ensuring that businesses are anchored in integrity,” Chris White, general counsel and chief policy officer at the Advanced Medical Technology Association. 

    “By championing ethical practices, including in the public procurement process, governments not only guide businesses but also reinforce the trust that is vital to the broader health ecosystem,” he concluded.

    For more information about the Business Ethics for APEC SMEs Initiative, visit the initiative’s homepage. Stakeholders interested in learning more or getting involved are encouraged to contact the initiative’s stakeholder liaison team at [email protected].

    For further details or to arrange possible media interviews, please contact:

    APEC Media at [email protected]

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Premiumization trend reshapes consumer beauty preferences in APAC, says GlobalData

    Source: GlobalData

    Premiumization trend reshapes consumer beauty preferences in APAC, says GlobalData

    Posted in Consumer

    Rising consumer disposable income coupled with the increasing consumer inclination towards high quality ingredients in products is creating demand for premium and ultra-premium products in the Asia-Pacific (APAC). Consumers, especially older ones, are seeking luxury goods to get a superior experience. Moreover, the growing consumer preferences for a healthy grooming routine are enabling them to invest more in beauty products with high quality attributes. These factors are reshaping consumer preferences, which is supporting the growth of the premium cosmetics market in the APAC region, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

    Naveed Khan, Consumer Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Premiumization is an emerging trend in the APAC region, which is fueled by changing consumer needs and increasing affinity towards superior quality products. Countries such as China, India, and South Korea registered significant growths in gross disposable income per household in 2023+, supporting the trend. Moreover, the high internet penetration in APAC countries such as South Korea (98.6%) and China (78%) made beauty products more accessible to consumers through e-commerce platforms, benefiting the trend. Additionally, consumers are also seeking quality products with unique and uncommon ingredients that are well researched and have stable formulations.”

    GlobalData 2024 Q2 Consumer Survey* corroborates this trend, where 66% of respondents in Asia & Australasia stated that they find “novel/unique” attributes in product purchases as either essential or nice to have. In the same survey, 34% of respondents stated that they prefer “high quality products/ingredients” in beauty and grooming products.

    In response, manufacturers are using novel and uncommon ingredients to align with consumer preferences. For instance, in October 2023, Bio Essence introduced a Gel Cleanser in Malaysia, containing unique and high-quality ingredients such as 24k bio-gold and nano gold peptide, which provide antioxidant protection, reduce signs of anti-aging, and rejuvenate skin.

    Deepak Nautiyal, Consumer and Retail Commercial Director, APAC and ME at GlobalData, adds: “Young consumers, especially Gen-Z, are preferring quality over quantity and are seeking premium cosmetics. Moreover, the ease of availability of both local and international brands through e-commerce platforms and growing consumer focus on their appearance is boosting the premiumization trend in the region. Furthermore, changing global beauty standards and the growing K-beauty and J-beauty trend that focus on traditional methods and unique ingredients are further fueling the premium products market in the region. As a result, in the past few years, various premium beauty brands such as Charlotte Tilbury and Sulwhasoo have established their base in Asian geographies.”

    American beauty company Coty is also looking to leverage the rising premiumization trend in China to improve its market in the region. In 2023, the company introduced Lancaster Ligne Princiere, an ultra-premium cosmetic product range in the country. It also introduced its premium skincare brand Orveda in the year.

    In 2024, Sisley Paris introduced a high-quality anti-aging cream, Sisleÿa L’Intégral Anti-Age Fresh Gel Cream in Hong Kong. It is claimed to contain quality ingredients such as Alchemilla extract, Lindera extract, Persian acacia extract, apple pip extracts, yeast, and soy protein complex.

    Khan concludes: “Growing consumer inclination towards high quality and premium priced products will offer significant growth opportunities to manufacturers in the region. Moreover, manufacturers must concentrate on introducing products with innovative ingredient combinations in attractive and sustainable packaging to offer the premium appeal capable of attracting consumers.”

    *GlobalData 2024 Q2 Consumer Survey – Asia & Australasia, published in July 2024, included 6,506 respondents

    +GlobalData Macroeconomic Data, accessed on October 15, 2024

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: APAC companies add $550 billion in MCap in Q3 2024, driven by China’s stimulus and strong regional demand, reveals GlobalData

    Source: GlobalData

    APAC companies add $550 billion in MCap in Q3 2024, driven by China’s stimulus and strong regional demand, reveals GlobalData

    Posted in Business Fundamentals

    The Asia-Pacific (APAC) region experienced a significant surge in market capitalization (MCap), with the top 50 companies gaining $550 billion in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024. This growth was fueled by China’s fiscal stimulus, strong domestic demand in India and Southeast Asia, and better-than-expected corporate earnings, underscoring the region’s resilience amid global uncertainties, reveals a study by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

    At the end of Q3 2024, the combined market value of the companies in the technology sector reached $3.3 trillion, while those in the financial services sector totaled $527.4 billion. Among the top 50 companies, 19 companies were from the technology sector. In terms of geographic distribution, 19 were based out of China, 15 from Japan, and seven from India.

    Murthy Grandhi, Business Fundamentals Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Asian stocks surged in late September following the announcement of a comprehensive stimulus package by the Chinese policymakers. While individual measures such as interest rate cuts and reduced downpayment requirements for home purchases have been introduced over the past year, the coordinated nature of September’s initiative marked the strongest indication, yet Beijing is committed to bolster the Chinese economy and stabilize the stock markets.

    “The Bank of Japan’s July rate hike, coupled with Governor Ueda Kazuo’s signals of further increases, was swiftly followed by weak US labor market data. As the interest rate gap between the US and Japan narrowed, the Japanese yen strengthened significantly, triggering a rapid unwinding of many ‘carry trades’ that had benefited from low Japanese borrowing costs. A more reassuring stance from BoJ officials later helped Japanese stocks recover some of their losses.”

    Companies that witnessed significant gains include Chinese food-delivery giant Meituan, which experienced more than 50% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth in its market capitalization owing to the stronger-than-expected quarterly results and share buyback announcement.

    Alibaba Group’s market valuation soared by 46.2% during the quarter, following the announcement of the completion of a three-year regulatory “rectification” process. This development came after the company was fined for monopolistic practices in 2021 as part of an antitrust investigation.

    The shares of China Life Insurance saw a 46.1% increase in market capitalization, driven by the company’s strong interim financial results.

    Grandhi adds: “The Chinese constituents in the top 50 APAC companies list witnessed a 18% increase in market value, driven by the announcement of China’s fiscal stimulus package. Oil majors CNOOC and PetroChina experienced market capitalization loss of 12.3% and 10.3%, respectively, owing to slump in crude oil prices.”

    Chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics experienced significant declines in market value, dropping by 22.2% and 20.1%, respectively. These losses reflect concerns over a potential oversupply in the market, despite the low probability of this occurring.

    Additionally, Samsung is facing challenges in maintaining its lead in high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips, a crucial component in AI processors, as domestic competitor SK Hynix’s latest HBM products are reportedly undergoing testing for possible integration into processors from leading AI-chip maker Nvidia.

    Grandhi concludes: “Into Q4 2024, APAC companies could be keenly keeping an eye on the monetary policies of their respective countries, with interest rates likely to be cut down, albeit not to extend of the recent US Fed rate cuts. Additionally, the ongoing Middle East crisis could disrupt the market, affecting investor confidence and business strategies. However, APAC’s resilience, driven by innovation and supply chain strengthening, will help them in navigating these uncertainties and in sustaining the growth story.”

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Goldman Sachs and Rothschild & Co top M&A financial advisers in South & Central America during Q1-Q3 2024, finds GlobalData

    Source: GlobalData

    Goldman Sachs and Rothschild & Co top M&A financial advisers in South & Central America during Q1-Q3 2024, finds GlobalData

    Posted in Business Fundamentals

    Goldman Sachs and Rothschild & Co were the top mergers and acquisitions (M&A) financial advisers in the South & Central American region during the first three quarters (Q1-Q3) of 2024 by value and volume, respectively, according to the latest Financial Advisers League Table, which ranks legal advisers by the value and volume of mergers and acquisition (M&A) deals on which they advised, by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

    An analysis of GlobalData’s Deals Database reveals that Goldman Sachs achieved the leading position in terms of value by advising on $2.5 billion worth of deals. Meanwhile, Rothschild & Co led in terms of volume by advising on a total of eight deals.

    Aurojyoti Bose, Lead Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Rothschild & Co registered growth in the total number of deals advised by it during Q1-Q3 2024 compared to Q1-Q3 2023. Resultantly, its ranking by volume also improved from fifth position during Q1-Q3 2023 to the top position during Q1-Q3 2024. Apart from leading by volume, Rothschild & Co also occupied the second position by value during Q1-Q3 2024.

    “Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs was also the top adviser by value during Q1-Q3 2023. However, it registered a significant fall in the total value of deals advised by it during Q1-Q3 2024 compared to Q1-Q3 2023. Despite the decline, it still managed to retain its leadership position by value. Apart from leading by value, Goldman Sachs also occupied the third position by volume during Q1-Q3 2024.”

    Rothschild & Co occupied the second position in terms of value by advising on $1.9 billion worth of deals, followed by Bank of America with $1.9 billion, UBS with $1.5 billion, and JP Morgan with $1.5 billion.

    Meanwhile, UBS occupied the second position in terms of volume with eight deals, followed by Goldman Sachs with four deals, JP Morgan with three deals, and Morgan Stanley with three deals.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Clifford Chance and Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom top M&A legal advisers in South & Central America during Q1-Q3 2024, finds GlobalData

    Source: GlobalData

    Clifford Chance and Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom top M&A legal advisers in South & Central America during Q1-Q3 2024, finds GlobalData

    Posted in Business Fundamentals

    Clifford Chance and Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom were the top mergers and acquisitions (M&A) legal advisers in the South & Central American region during the first three quarters (Q1-Q3) of 2024 by value and volume, respectively, according to the latest Legal Advisers League Table, which ranks legal advisers by the value and volume of mergers and acquisition (M&A) deals on which they advised, by GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

    An analysis of GlobalData’s Deals Database reveals that Clifford Chance achieved the leading position in terms of value by advising on $6.7 billion worth of deals. Meanwhile, Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom led in terms of volume by advising on a total of five deals.

    Aurojyoti Bose, Lead Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “It is interesting to note that Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom registered a decline in the number of deals advised by it but still experienced improvement in ranking by volume during Q1-Q3 2024 compared to Q1-Q3 2023.

    “Meanwhile, Clifford Chance registered a massive jump in the total value of deals advised by it during Q1-Q3 2024 compared to Q1-Q3 2023. Resultantly, its ranking by value also jumped significantly from 39th position during Q1-Q3 2023 to the top position during Q1-Q3 2024.”

    McCarthy Tetrault occupied the second position in terms of value by advising on $6.1 billion worth of deals, followed by Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom with $2.3 billion, Mayer Brown with $1.9 billion, and Tauil & Chequer Advogados with $1.9 billion.

    Meanwhile, Simpson Thacher & Bartlett occupied the second position in terms of volume with five deals, followed by Posse Herrera & Ruiz Abogados with five deals, Cuatrecasas with four deals, and Demarest Advogados with four deals.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Speech by SCED at JUMPSTARTER Ignition Gala by Alibaba Entrepreneurs Fund (English only)

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

         Following is the speech by the Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development, Mr Algernon Yau, at the JUMPSTARTER Ignition Gala by Alibaba Entrepreneurs Fund today (October 21):Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,          Good afternoon.     Welcome to the StartmeupHK Festival 2024. It is my pleasure to join you all this afternoon at this first and foremost opening event of the Festival – JUMPSTARTER Ignition Gala by Alibaba Entrepreneurs Fund. The Gala marks the exciting launch of JUMPSTARTER, a global pitch competition organised by the Alibaba Entrepreneurs Fund, alongside the kick-off of the StartmeupHK Festival 2024.     As you all know, this Festival, which is in its ninth year now, has been receiving overwhelming support from the start-up ecosystem in Hong Kong, and serving as a powerful catalyst over time for Hong Kong’s burgeoning start-up ecosystem. The Festival this year, curated by Invest Hong Kong (InvestHK) with the theme “A Future Unlimited”, will bring together many start-ups, investors, industry leaders and tech enthusiasts from around the world, providing an international platform for knowledge exchange, networking and collaboration across various cutting-edge sectors. I can assure you about an exciting series of events in the coming full week of the StartmeupHK Festival.     As for this opening Gala, it marks the start of this year’s JUMPSTARTER, which is a global competition providing invaluable opportunities for entrepreneurs across the globe to gather in Hong Kong, pitch their ideas and business proposals, learn from mentors and investors, and most importantly, pursue their dreams in Hong Kong. I look forward to the enthusiastic participation by contestants from around the world, and wish the competition a great success.     The JUMPSTARTER is just one of the many opportunities offered in Hong Kong as a launch pad for start-ups to be groomed locally and scale globally. Being the only economy in the world where the global advantage and the China advantage come together, Hong Kong continues to maintain our uniqueness as one of the most liberal and easiest places to do business in the world: Hong Kong is once again ranked by the Fraser Institute this year as the freest economy; and we are ranked the third globally as well as the first in the Asia-Pacific region in the recent Global Financial Centres Index report. In addition, Hong Kong remains as the world’s fourth largest recipient of foreign direct investment in 2023 as revealed in the World Investment Report 2024, and continues to attract businesses and investment from around the world.     These impressive achievements are attributed to our institutional strengths, such as a robust common law legal system, an independent judiciary, a simple and low tax system, world-class professional services, start-up-and-business-friendly environment as well as other advantages guaranteed under “one country, two systems”. All of these continue to be the pillars supporting Hong Kong’s success as hubs for start-ups.     In fact, many start-ups fully recognise Hong Kong’s competitive edges. We are home to over 4 200 start-ups, which is a record high, representing a significant increase by 7 per cent year on year. In the first nine months this year, InvestHK has helped 470 overseas and Mainland enterprises to set foot or expand their business here, and over 10 per cent of them are start-ups and scale-ups from different sectors. The above encouraging results are testaments to Hong Kong’s attractiveness.     In the 2024 Policy Address announced last week, the Government has launched new initiatives to further drive economic development, which will benefit all businesses in Hong Kong, including start-ups. For instance, the Mainland and Hong Kong Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement (CEPA) has recently been updated to provide more flexibility and convenience for Hong Kong enterprises to invest and do business on the Mainland. As CEPA measures are nationality neutral, all companies based in Hong Kong can benefit from the latest enhancements. We would encourage more start-ups from around the world to set up their operations in Hong Kong to enjoy these advantages.     On individuals’ level, non-Chinese Hong Kong permanent residents have become eligible for the Mainland travel permit since July this year. This unprecedented measure facilitates their visits to the Mainland for business, leisure or family trips multiple times within a five-year validity period. I note that it has been well received by expatriates in Hong Kong, and encourage our overseas friends in the start-up community to all apply for the permit, if eligible, and enjoy the convenience brought by this initiative.     To facilitate your understanding of the above initiatives and many others, InvestHK, including its global network of Dedicated Teams for Attracting Businesses and Talents based in overseas Economic and Trade Offices, as well as its consultant offices, will continue to render support to you, with a view to facilitating your start-ups to set up and scale up in our city.     Looking forward, Hong Kong’s economic prospects are promising, and the Government will continue to strive to maintain a favourable business environment for start-ups as we always do. I would like to express my heartfelt gratitude to our start-up friends here today for your tremendous support to the Festival and confidence in Hong Kong. I hope you enjoy the Gala event and all the exciting events ahead, exploring collaboration opportunities and experiencing the innovative spirit that defines Hong Kong as a prime destination for start-ups.     Thank you.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: FEHD orders two restaurants in Yau Tsim district to suspend business for 14 and 21 days respectively

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

         The Director of Food and Environmental Hygiene has ordered two restaurants in Yau Tsim district to suspend business for 14 days and 21 days respectively, as the operators repeatedly breached the Food Business Regulation (FBR) by illegally extending the food business area.

         The restaurant, located on the ground floor of 210 Temple Street, was ordered to suspend business from today (October 21) to November 3, while the restaurant, Spicy Crabs, located on the ground floor of 105 Woosung Street, was ordered to suspend business from today to November 10.

         “Two convictions for the above-mentioned breach were recorded against the restaurant on Temple Street in February and August of this year. A total fine of $7,500 was levied by the court and 30 demerit points were registered against the licensee under the department’s demerit points system. The contraventions resulted in the 14-day licence suspension. Meanwhile, from July of last year to June of this year, four convictions for the above-mentioned breach were recorded against the restaurant on Woosung Street. A total fine of $7,700 was levied by the court and 60 demerit points were registered against this licensee under the department’s demerit points system. The contraventions resulted in seven-day and 14-day licence suspensions running consecutively,” a spokesman for the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department (FEHD) said.

         The licensee of the restaurant on Temple Street had a record of two convictions for the same offence in July and September of last year. A total fine of $6,400 was levied and 30 demerit points were also registered, leading to a seven-day licence suspension last December.

         The spokesman reminded licensees of food premises to comply with the FBR and other relevant regulations, or their licences could be suspended or cancelled.

         Licensed food premises are required to exhibit their licence and a sign at a conspicuous place of the premises, indicating that the premises have been licensed. A list of licensed food premises is available on the FEHD website (www.fehd.gov.hk/english/licensing/licence-foodPremises-search.html).

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: ICC launches pioneering Principles for Sustainable Trade Finance developed with leading trade banks

    Source: International Chamber of Commerce

    Headline: ICC launches pioneering Principles for Sustainable Trade Finance developed with leading trade banks

    Existing sustainable finance frameworks often cannot be easily and objectively applied to many Trade Finance products due to their nature as a ‘flow’ product without delineated projects. The PSTF offer clear, transparent, and consistent guidelines to enable banks, corporates and investors to effectively channel capital towards sustainable and inclusive trade finance facilities while mitigating the risks associated with greenwashing.

    The PSTF contain four distinct sections:

    1. bespoke Principles for Green Trade Finance (PGTF),
    2. ICC guidance on Sustainability Linked Trade Finance,
    3. ICC guidance on Sustainability Linked Supply Chain Finance and
    4. ICC’s ambition for Social Trade Finance.

    Initiating industry-wide consultation

    The launch of the PSTF marks the commencement of an open consultation period. ICC invites all stakeholders within the trade finance industry to review the document and provide comments and feedback. This collaborative approach ensures that the principles are robust, practical, and reflective of the diverse needs and insights of industry participants.

    Following the consultation period, the PSTF will be finalised and officially released later this year, solidifying its role as a cornerstone in promoting sustainable trade finance globally.

    Online event and feedback opportunities

    To facilitate a deeper understanding of the PSTF and encourage active engagement, ICC will host an online launch event on 29 October 2024 at 13:00 CET. This session will feature a comprehensive walkthrough of the principles, followed by a 30-minute Q&A segment. Participants will have the opportunity to engage directly with the authors and contributors of the PSTF, fostering a dialogue that will shape the final version of the document.

    In addition, ICC is launching a survey designed to gather further insights and feedback from industry professionals.

    Engage and participate

    • Register for the online event: To join the online session on Tuesday 29 October, please register via this link.
    • Provide your feedback: Participate in the PSTF survey
    • Contact us: For more information on the Principles for Sustainable Trade Finance or to submit detailed comments, please reach out to:

    ICC would like to thank HSBC, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank, Santander, ING, CommerzBank and BCG for their substantial input into the creation of the principles.

    Read more about our work on sustainable trade and sustainable trade finance.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: The Higher School of Business and Technology of the State University of Management invites you to Vladimir Tarasov’s business camp

    MILES AXLE Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: State University of Management – Official website of the State –

    On November 7-10, 2024, a large business game will be held at the PSB Patriot Hotel on the territory of the Patriot Park – Vladimir Tarasov’s business camp “Skills of Unpredictability”, where the heads of the Higher School of Business and Technology of the State University of Management Sergey Vagin and Dmitry Ovodenko will act as experts.

    Vladimir Tarasov’s Business Camp is a large business game that has no analogues in the world, which simulates the life of several game states, immerses more than a hundred people in it and in a few days significantly expands the business picture of the world and the strength of the personality of each participant.

    The author of the program Vladimir Tarasov is an outstanding social technologist of our time, the creator of the foundations of management of the Soviet and Russian mentality, the developer of the system of selection and training of managers, which is used in Russia as an alternative to the Western school. The author of the popular trainings “Managerial Duel”, “Communication Spinner”, the business game “Organizer” and many others.

    Experts from the Higher School of Business and Technology of the State University of Management: Advisor to the Rector’s Office, expert in knowledge management and organizational development, entrepreneur, Doctor of Economics, Professor Sergey Vagin and Director of the Higher School of Business and Technology, consultant in the field of effective communications, negotiations in marketing and sales, vice-champion of the Russian Championship in management fights Dmitry Ovodenko.

    As a result of training under the program “Skills of Unpredictability” you will learn: – to negotiate, multiplying your interests; – to foresee the consequences of decisions in advance; – to build a structure and technology of production; – to delegate authority in conditions of acute time shortage.

    From the first minute, a business camp participant lives in accelerated game time under a new name. Someone will be a minister, someone will be an owner of an enterprise. Everyone will have to manage something, make decisions quickly, conflict with and cooperate with other participants in the game. Production will be real, done by hand, management errors will lead to poverty, and the right decisions will create wealth. After the business camp, all its participants will see their activities in real life as if they had returned from a trip to the future.

    Daily time for gaming and educational activities from 9:00 to 00:00 with partial possibility of individual time schedule.

    The author of the program, Vladimir Tarasov, will be an honorary guest of the business camp.

    You can find out more detailed information and register on the official website of the business camp or in Vladimir Tarasov’s Telegram channel.

    Subscribe to the tg channel “Our State University” Announcement date: 10/21/2024

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    The Higher School of Business and Technology of the State University of Management invites you to Vladimir Tarasov’s business camp

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Real estate programmes reaccredited by global professional body The MSc and MA Real Estate programmes at the University of Aberdeen’s Business School have been reaccredited by the sector’s leading professional development body.

    Source: University of Aberdeen

    The University is marking 50 years of delivering Real Estate degree programmes. Photo credit: ThirdmanThe MSc and MA Real Estate programmes at the University of Aberdeen’s Business School have been reaccredited by the sector’s leading professional development body.
    Now in its 50th year of delivering Real Estate degree programmes, the University has seen all eight courses reconfirmed as meeting a globally-recognised standard of surveying education by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS).
    They are the MSc Real Estate, MSc Finance and Real Estate, MA (Hons) Real Estate, MA (Hons) Finance and Real Estate, MA (Hons) Business Management and Real Estate, MA (Hons) Economics and Real Estate, MA (Hons) Accountancy and Real Estate; and MA (Hons) International Business with Real Estate specialism.
    The panel consider a number of areas during the review process, including student experience, the quality of the programme content and teaching staff, access to resources and the relevance of the curriculum to industry.
    Fiona Stoddard, lecturer in real estate and director of student experience at the Business School, said: “We are delighted to have received our  reaccreditation from RICS, adding further confidence that our real estate programmes continue to meet the highest international standards and support students who wish to pursue a rewarding career in the sector.
    “Our graduates are able to seek employment in a range of surveying specialisms through our degree accreditations.”

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Rosneft enterprises held an environmental championship in the Kadosh forest park in Tuapse

    MILES AXLE Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Rosneft – Rosneft – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.

    RN-Tuapse Marine Terminal (part of the Commerce and Logistics Block of Rosneft Oil Company) organized the Championship in Sports Garbage Collection among the Company’s enterprises operating in the Tuapse District of Krasnodar Krai. About 150 volunteers took part in the environmental action to clean up the natural monument – Kiselev Rocks, including employees of the terminal, RN-Tuapse Oil Refinery, a branch of SIBINTEK Investment Company, RN-Uchet, as well as activists of the youth “Movement of the First”, students, environmentalists and concerned local residents.

    “RN-Tuapse Marine Terminal” and the Tuapse District Administration held a joint environmental campaign in the format of sports competitions for the third time. Teams of participants collected the maximum amount of household waste in the forest park for a time. Each team brought the collected bags to the judges’ site, where the judges determined the winners. Volunteers also sorted the waste for further recycling. The first place in the Championship was taken by the team of organizers – “RN-Tuapse Marine Terminal”, the second – “SIBINTEK”, the “bronze” was won by the “Movement of the First” team. The participants of the Championship collected more than 10 cubic meters of household waste, returning the pristine appearance of the natural area popular with tourists.

    The Kiselev Rock cleanup campaign is the oil workers’ contribution to the development of the environmental movement, as well as the involvement of the population in preserving the unique nature of Kuban, promoting sports and a healthy lifestyle.

    Preserving the environment for future generations is an integral part of Rosneft’s corporate culture and social policy. The company also pays attention to developing a healthy lifestyle culture and comprehensively supports sports.

    “RN-Tuapse Marine Terminal” in its activities is guided by high environmental standards of rational use of natural resources and preservation of a favorable environmental situation in the region of presence. Every year the enterprise participates in the “Earth Hour” and “Green Spring” campaigns, and also holds clean-up days, maintains the cleanliness of the road leading to the city beach of Tuapse. Such events not only help to preserve the unique nature of the Tuapse region, but also contribute to environmental education, popularization of an environmentally responsible lifestyle.

    Reference:

    Kiselev Rock is a natural monument that has become part of the protected Kadosh forest park, which occupies 300 hectares in the picturesque Tuapse region of Krasnodar Krai. The forest park is home to 30 species of trees and shrubs, 7 vines, 255 species of herbaceous plants, including rare orchids.

    Kiselev Rock is famous as the location where episodes of Leonid Gaidai’s film “The Diamond Arm” were filmed. Tourists visiting these places not only admire the beauty of nature, but also immerse themselves in the atmosphere of the famous film.

    Department of Information and Advertising of PJSC NK Rosneft October 21, 2024

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://vvv.rosneft.ru/press/nevs/item/220929/

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Donald Trump is planning more trade barriers if he becomes president – but they didn’t work last time

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Johnson, Professor of Operations Management, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

    Trump campaigning in Pennsylvania in October 2024. Connor Brady Photography/Shutterstock

    Donald Trump loves tariffs. Making things more expensive if they come from foreign countries is at the heart of his bid for a second term in the White House.

    “Tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented,” he said in September 2024 at a town hall event in Michigan. And he has promised that if he becomes US president again, he will impose an across-the-board tariff of up to 20% on imports – and even 200% on cars from Mexico – in a bid to encourage American manufacturing.

    This is familiar ground for Trump, who showed he was fond of tariffs during his 2017-2021 presidency. Back then, he claimed his policy would address the trade imbalance with China, bring manufacturing jobs back to the US and raise revenues.

    Tariffs were then imposed on a wide range of goods, from imported steel and aluminium, to solar panels and washing machines.

    But did they work? Our research suggests not.

    In fact, we found that imposing tariffs actually made the US even more reliant on foreign suppliers – and failed to stimulate the domestic job market. They also raised costs for US consumers and provoked retaliatory tariffs from trading partners including China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, India and Turkey.

    China for example, responded by trebling tariffs on American cars. The EU filed a dispute with the World Trade Organisation and substantially raised tariffs on US exports including Harley Davidson motorcycles, jeans and bourbon whiskey.

    And Trump’s tariffs did not lead to a boost for US manufacturing either. After tariffs were imposed, our research shows US manufacturing supply chains evolved to have fewer suppliers – but it was often US firms that got forced out of those supply chains, not their competitors from overseas.

    We found that US manufacturers appeared to reduce their global reach, while actually increasing their dependence on a select few foreign companies – further evidence that Trump’s tariffs failed to produce the intended outcome.

    Our research also suggests that “reshoring” – bringing production and manufacturing back to a company’s home country – is not feasible without an established ecosystem of suppliers, intermediaries and customers. So introducing trade barriers without adequate support for the development of regional supply chains is unlikely to result in stronger local economies or more jobs.

    Essentially, for reshoring to work, the domestic economy needs to have the capacity to match demand. But the US (like the UK) has lost manufacturing capability in many areas, and rebuilding it is not going to happen overnight.

    Establishing a new industry requires buildings, skilled staff and supply chains – and a very specific approach is required for each industry. Getting the right skills and labour is often the trickiest part and may require immigration.

    However, even this may not work in the most complex industries. In the case of computer chips, for example, there are generous incentives in the US under the Biden administration to encourage chip manufacturing. Yet Taiwan still massively dominates the market, raising questions over whether the US could ever really compete.

    Bourbon whiskey exports, on the rocks?
    Smit/Shutterstock

    Other industries that can use automation and robotics in manufacturing (such as chemicals and transportation equipment) might be easier to reboot, but they may not generate the expected number and range of jobs. And often reshoring strategies involve higher investment in automation, machinery and robotics, rather than jobs. Trump’s focus may have been bringing back manufacturing jobs back to the US, but the truth is that many of these jobs may be gone forever.

    Trading places

    Overall then, imposing tariffs without adequate domestic support mechanisms in place has led to US manufacturers increasing their dependence on foreign suppliers and reducing their dependence on local ones.

    Yet tariffs are not exclusively favoured by Trump – or even right-wing politics. And there seems to be a fairly common view among politicians in the west that some tariffs can be an effective economic tool.

    Trade barriers against China for instance, have continued under Joe Biden’s administration (although he has somewhat relaxed tariffs for imports from the EU, Canada and Mexico). And recently, Canada imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese cars and 25% on Chinese steel and aluminium, while the EU has also imposed tariffs on Chinese goods.

    One of the few voices speaking out against tariffs belongs to former US vice-president Mike Pence. He recently proposed scrapping tariffs, saying they just made products more expensive for consumers – and failed to improve prosperity.

    His old boss clearly disagrees. And if Trump does win a second term in office, it seems certain that imposing international tariffs will be high up on his “to do” list. But if their impact is anything like the last time, they will be of little benefit to the US economy or the voters who depend upon it.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Donald Trump is planning more trade barriers if he becomes president – but they didn’t work last time – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-is-planning-more-trade-barriers-if-he-becomes-president-but-they-didnt-work-last-time-240964

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The gas crisis is not over yet

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michael Bradshaw, Professor of Global Energy, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

    Oleksandr Filatov/Shutterstock

    Policy and luck have bought Europe a reprieve from the heights gas prices reached between the winters of 2022 and 2023, but prices are climbing again and the global gas market remains precariously balanced.

    Rising tensions in the Middle East could upend it. If conflict spills into the Persian Gulf, it could disrupt shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar that equal 20% of global exports.

    We believe this winter will be the final act of the gas crisis. Here’s what we should expect.

    Dangerously underprepared

    The case for Britain to rapidly phase out natural gas in heating and power generation is overwhelming. It would unburden household bills of expensive gas imports and leave the country less vulnerable to energy supply crunches, while also cutting carbon emissions. Doing so will take time: as of today, the UK relies on gas for 37% of all energy consumption.

    British households in particular are perilously exposed to gas prices. Directly, because four-fifths of households use gas for space heating. Indirectly, because in the UK, electricity prices are set by the price of gas-fired generation. After a decade of failed home insulation and energy-efficiency policies, the UK still has some of the draughtiest homes in Europe. It simply takes more energy to heat British homes, which lose heat three times faster than European neighbours.

    Since the beginning of the recent crisis, the UK government has done little to change these facts. The end of the winter fuel payment to pensioners adds fresh concern. The Energy Crisis Commission recently found that the UK remains “dangerously underprepared” for a repeat of the gas price explosion of 2022-23.

    All told, the UK cannot be oblivious to developments in the global gas market.

    A crisis in the making

    Resurgent gas demand after the lifting of COVID restrictions led to a quadrupling of UK gas prices in 2021. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Vladimir Putin throttled pipeline gas exports to Europe.

    Europe turned to its greatest source of flexible gas supply: seaborne LNG. A price war for cargoes followed. The spending power of European economies pulled shipments away from low-income countries in Asia, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, which caused crippling blackouts and a pivot to coal-fired generation.

    Energy bills for an average household in the UK hit £4,279 in January 2023. The government protected consumers from the very worst at a cost of £51 billion in 2022-23, but the average household lost 8% of its budget to energy costs in 2022, rising to 18% for the poorest tenth of households. Roughly 2 million households on pre-payment meters were being cut off from their energy supply at least once a month at the height of the crisis.

    Clement winters, moderate gas demand in Asia and successful measures to curb European gas demand saw UK gas prices fall from mid-2023. But they are still relatively high – at 48% above the average in the three years before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    One more winter

    Could things get worse? Back in 2022, experts spoke of a “three-winter crisis” because significant new LNG export capacity (primarily in the US and Qatar) wasn’t expected until 2025. That has held true, and supply and demand in the global LNG market remains taut.

    Several disturbances could destabilise this balance. The International Energy Agency expects that over 2024, global growth in gas demand will exceed the rate of growth in new LNG supply. Attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by the Houthi militia in Yemen, in response to Israel’s invasion of Gaza, have rerouted LNG shipping routes. Cargoes that would have passed through the Suez Canal must now take the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.

    At the end of 2024, a major five-year agreement governing the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will expire, and there is no prospect of renewal. Russian gas supplies to Europe will fall by around 5% of the EU’s total gas imports, or 65% of all gas imports into Austria, Hungary and Slovakia.

    While Europe has been saved by mild winters over the last two years, this luck could break in 2024-25 according to some forecasts. Temperature – and the demand it creates for heating – will probably decide winter gas prices in Europe.

    Geopolitical blowback

    How might the worst-case scenario of conflict in the Persian Gulf happen?

    LNG is shipped by sea on large tankers.
    Wojciech Wrzesien/Shutterstock

    Israel’s escalating military assaults on Hezbollah since September 17 have coincided with a 17% rise in UK gas prices. After Iran’s missile and drone strikes against Israel on October 1, European gas prices hit a new high for the year. This saw three LNG tankers destined for Asia change course mid-journey and head for Europe.

    Israel has vowed retribution for the Iranian strike. Having obliterated Gaza and decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership, and with resolute material support from the US, Israel may now see Iran as vulnerable.

    A severe response by Israel, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, would further up the ante. Wishing to avoid direct conflict, Iran could decide to target not Israel, but the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz on which its western backers depend. Qatari LNG shipments through the strait account for 20% of global supply on their own.

    Any interruption would also block Iran’s oil exports, afflict Iran’s friends as much as its foes, and kill Iran’s current reconciliation with the Gulf states. It is unlikely, but one would hope that the warning signs in the global gas market would remind western decision-makers that the conflict in the Middle East can continue to blow back on them.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Michael Bradshaw receives funding from the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) that is funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). He also advises the government, thinktanks and companies on energy matters.

    Louis Fletcher receives funding from the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), which is funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).

    – ref. The gas crisis is not over yet – https://theconversation.com/the-gas-crisis-is-not-over-yet-241538

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Microsoft and NVIDIA empower AI startups for health and life sciences breakthroughs

    Source: Microsoft

    Headline: Microsoft and NVIDIA empower AI startups for health and life sciences breakthroughs

    AI isn’t just changing the game- it’s rewriting the rules of innovation. With advanced machine learning models and data-driven insights, we’re on the brink of breakthroughs in health and life sciences that once seemed impossible. Imagine accelerating drug discovery, connecting care experiences, and personalizing medicine like never before. AI is our chance to tackle some of the biggest health challenges facing humanity.

    But health and life science startups can run into roadblocks when it comes to driving innovation. Building AI solutions isn’t something you can do in isolation. Founders often hit walls with limited access to GPUs and the high costs of training models, tweaking them, running tests, and everything else it takes to get a solution off the ground. Today, we’re excited to announce that Microsoft for Startups and NVIDIA Inception are joining forces to fuel AI-driven health and life sciences startups.

    Empowering Health and Life Sciences Startups to Make a Difference

    Microsoft for Startups and NVIDIA Inception exist to empower early-stage companies by providing them with the resources, technology, and expertise needed to build and scale their businesses. Microsoft for Startups focuses on helping startups leverage Microsoft’s cloud infrastructure, AI tools, and go-to-market support, enabling founders to overcome challenges like scaling their solutions globally and accessing enterprise customers. NVIDIA Inception offers startups in AI, data science, and deep learning access to cutting-edge GPU technology and mentorship, helping them address complex technical hurdles in product development and achieve breakthroughs in high-impact industries such as healthcare, robotics, and autonomous driving. Both programs have been instrumental in removing barriers to innovation, accelerating time-to-market, and helping tens of thousands of startups. This collaboration combines Microsoft’s cloud and enterprise expertise with NVIDIA’s pioneering advancements in AI hardware and software. Together, we are introducing a new reciprocal program to provide health and life sciences startups with the tools, resources, and support they need to fast track their ideas and deliver life-changing outcomes.

    Accepted startups will have access to the following suite of benefits:

    Microsoft for Startups:

    • Up to $150,000 in Azure Credits for Four Years: Startups can apply these credits towards leading AI models, including Azure OpenAI Service, Meta’s Llama, and Microsoft’s own small language model, Phi—enabling rapid and efficient scaling using cloud services tailored for AI, big data, and healthcare applications.
    • Access to Microsoft Business Tools: Including productivity and development tools such as Microsoft 365, Visual Studio, and GitHub, along with dozens of discounts to startup-friendly offerings from our trusted partners like LinkedIn.
    • High-Touch Technical Support: Startups will receive personalized guidance from a Microsoft technical expert, who will work directly with a corresponding NVIDIA technical expert to build optimized Azure templates for leveraging the full NVIDIA technology stack.
    • GTM and Pegasus Program Access: Microsoft will provide prioritized access to its Pegasus program, which offers go-to-market support, access to Microsoft’s global sales teams, and strategic co-selling opportunities.

    NVIDIA Inception:

    • 10,000 ai.nvidia.com Credits: Startups will have access to a wealth of GPU resources and AI models, enabling them to train and optimize complex models more cost-effectively.
    • 75% Discount on NVIDIA AI Enterprise Stack: This ensures that startups can leverage the complete NVIDIA suite for developing, deploying, and managing AI models.
    • Dedicated Technical Support: A specialized technical resource will collaborate closely with Microsoft to evangelize the NVIDIA AI Enterprise stack and co-develop Azure templates for NVIDIA technology.
    • Exclusive Early Access: Startups will gain private access to new NVIDIA Healthcare products before general release, allowing them to incorporate the latest advancements in their solutions.

    Unleashing the Potential of AI in Health and Life Sciences

    The collaboration between Microsoft for Startups and NVIDIA Inception is a launchpad for startups eager to harness AI’s potential in health and life sciences. We’re not just supporting growth; we’re igniting a movement where startups can redefine healthcare’s future.

    What Health and Life Sciences Startups Are Saying

    “Working with both Microsoft for Startups and NVIDIA Inception has been transformative for Pangaea Data. By combining their resources and access to cutting-edge AI models, we are able to accelerate development and deliver real-world value to our joint customers. Leveraging AI tools from Microsoft and NVIDIA, we apply clinical guidelines to find previously overlooked patients at the point of care who need treatment or access to clinical trials, ultimately improving patient outcomes.” — Dr. Vibhor Gupta, Founder & CEO, Pangaea Data.

    “Collaborating with Microsoft for Startups and NVIDIA Inception represents an incredible opportunity for Artisight to elevate healthcare delivery. By leveraging their combined resources and cutting-edge AI capabilities, we can transform productivity for healthcare providers and deliver meaningful outcomes to our customers. This partnership enables us to scale our smart hospital solutions more rapidly, from operating rooms to patient rooms, ultimately creating a future where technology empowers clinicians to focus more on patient care and less on operational hurdles.” — Andrew Gostine, Co-founder & CEO, Artisight.

    Ready to join us?

    If you’re a health and life sciences startup looking to harness the full potential of AI to shape the future of health innovation, we invite you to explore this reciprocal program, available to eligible startups in either Microsoft for Startups or NVIDIA Inception. Learn more about our collaboration and apply today to be part of the AI revolution with Microsoft and NVIDIA.

    Apply today:

    NVIDIA Inception

    Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub

    Tags: Health and Life Sciences, Healthcare, HLTH, HLTH 2024, NVIDIA Inception

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Retirement Commission – NEW FINANCIAL EDUCATION PARTNERSHIP HELPS RANGATAHI LEARN ABOUT MONEY

    Source: Retirement Commission

    Te whai hua – kia ora, Sorted in Schools, Inland Revenue and School Kit have joined forces to bring more innovative new learning resources to teach high school students about money.

    Newly designed interactive resource packs on tax and compound interest will be sent to around 13,000 year 9 and 10 students throughout New Zealand over the next 12 months.

    Te Ara Ahunga Ora Retirement Commission Learning Lead, Yasmin Frazer says this partnership extends the reach of Te whai hua – kia ora, Sorted in Schools, the Retirement Commission’s free financial education programme.

    “It’s critical the next generation of New Zealanders can access financial knowledge through the education system, and this provides teachers further resources to engage their students with money,” she says.

    “We have been providing resources and upskilling teachers and Kaiako through our Te whai hua – kia ora, Sorted in Schools programme since 2019, with 89% of New Zealand schools and kura now using it.

    “Partnering with School Kit has meant we can offer more ways to teach kids about money as well as supporting us to support more teachers to learn more about financial education themselves.”

    The kits can be incorporated into a variety of subjects, comprising English, Math, Business or Social Studies and combine a mix of digital and physical resources including encouraging use of the practical tools available on the Sorted website.

    The tax focused kit teaches students about tax in a way that is compelling and meaningful so they can hit the ground running when they start working, it also delves into how it contributes to areas like health and education.

    Inland Revenue Te Tari Taake Community Compliance Leader, Cy Lochead says, “We want everyone in New Zealand Aotearoa to understand how tax works and what it’s used for, as it’s an important part of our working lives.”

    “Partnering with Te Ara Ahunga Ora to develop financial literacy through the education system has created an opportunity to develop that understanding right from the start.

    “We’re excited to see the School Kit released, creating new opportunities to engage with the taxation module content.”

    Notes:

    About Te whai hua – kia ora, Sorted in Schools

    Te Ara Ahunga Ora Retirement Commission launched Te whai hua – kia ora, Sorted in Schools in 2019, which now has 78% New Zealand secondary schools and 81% of kura taking part.

    It is the first government-backed financial education programme fully aligned with the curriculum, so can be taught as part of day-to-day classes in subjects as diverse as maths, social sciences, technology, English and even health. The resources cover topics ranging from debt and money management to KiwiSaver and insurance and include learning and assessment materials for NCEA unit and achievement standards.

    More than 300 resources, designed by teachers for teachers, are already available through the website sortedinschools.org.nz, and we deliver free professional development workshops and webinars to help teachers feel confident to teach the subject. Ask your secondary school if you haven’t seen them using it.

    In 2022/23 68% of schools and kura have used Te whai hua – kia ora and 97% of teachers value Te whai hua – kia ora as a financial capability programme they like to use. And it’s all free.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Houlahan Receives Re-Opening Plan from IRS After Demanding Answers on Reading Office Closure

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Representative Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA)

    Houlahan Receives Re-Opening Plan from IRS After Demanding Answers on Reading Office Closure

    Reading, October 22, 2024

    READING, PA – Today, Representative Chrissy Houlahan (D-PA) announced that the Internal Revenue Service shared a re-opening plan for its Reading, PA Taxpayer Assistance Center (TAC) that has been closed since early July. The TAC is currently open for taxpayer services three days a week and, starting December 30th, the IRS expects it will resume full five-day service. 

    In July, Houlahan sent a letter to IRS Commissioner Danny Werfel sharing her concern about the extended closure of the Taxpayer Assistance Center in Reading. This center, located just one floor below Houlahan’s own district office, provides vital services and accessibility to her constituents in Pennsylvania’s Sixth Congressional District. 

    In her letter, Houlahan emphasized the importance of the Reading TAC to the community and the need for in-person services for people who cannot access tax law assistance over the phone. “As you know, in-person services are critical for disadvantaged, older, or disabled individuals who may be unable to access these services online or over the phone. In-person assistance is especially necessary in the City of Reading, where the poverty rate is 29.4% and nearly 20% of residents live with a disability. I urge you to re-open the Reading TAC as soon as possible,” wrote Houlahan.  

    In September, Houlahan received a response from Commissioner Werfel, who stated that the closure occurred due to the attrition of two employees. Werfel also shared that the IRS was enlisting the help of employee volunteers to resume three-day service until the office is fully staffed and the agency’s commitment to opening the office as soon as feasibly possible. “I appreciate Commissioner Werfel’s response and transparency regarding the center’s re-opening. I am grateful that my letter brought eyes, attention, and prioritization to the importance of the in-person Taxpayer Assistance Center in Reading,” said Houlahan. 

    Additionally, members of Houlahan’s team have met with IRS staff on multiple occasions to discuss the center’s re-opening. The recent updates from the IRS are as follows:  

    A temporary employee is present at the Reading TAC to meet with taxpayers three days a week. Hours of operation are Tuesday: 10:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., Wednesday: 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., and Thursday: 8:30 a.m. to 2 p.m.  

    Houlahan is an Air Force veteran, an engineer, a serial entrepreneur, an educator, and a nonprofit leader. She represents Pennsylvania’s 6th Congressional District, which encompasses Chester County and southern Berks County. She serves on the House Armed Services Committee and the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence. She is the recipient of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Abraham Lincoln Leadership for America Award which “recognizes members who demonstrate the bipartisan leadership and constructive governing necessary to move our country forward” and the Congressional Management Foundation’s 2022 Democracy Award for best Constituent Services in Congress. 

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI: Coalesce Recognized as Leader in Snowflake’s Modern Marketing Data Stack Report

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    SAN FRANCISCO, Oct. 22, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Coalesce, the data transformation company, today announced that it has been recognized as an Integration and Modeling leader in the Modern Marketing Data Stack 2025: How Leading Marketers Are Thriving In a World Redefined By AI, Privacy and Data Gravity executed and launched by Snowflake, the AI Data Cloud company.

    The third annual edition of Snowflake’s Modern Marketing Data Stack report identifies the technologies, tools, and platforms used by Snowflake customers to show how marketers and advertisers can leverage the Snowflake AI Data Cloud with accompanying partner solutions to serve existing customers and convert valuable prospects.

    Snowflake analyzed usage patterns from a pool of approximately 9,800 customers as of April 2024, and identified 10 technology categories that organizations consider when building their marketing data stacks to capitalize on AI.

    The extensive report highlights three core factors throughout the industry that mark a significant departure from the martech ecosystem highlighted in the inaugural report in 2022, creating a new normal where AI, data gravity, and privacy are intertwined.

    The report offers details on how this paradigm shift is giving rise to new trends in the marketing landscape, from truly data-empowered marketers to innovative measurement techniques for marketing effectiveness. The categories include:

    Marketing and Advertising Tools & Platforms

    • Analytics & Data Capture
    • Enrichment & Hygiene
    • Identity & Onboarding
    • Customer Data Platforms
    • Marketing & Customer Engagement
    • Programmatic Solutions
    • Measurement & Optimization

    Data Tools & Platforms

    • Integration & Modeling
    • Consent Management
    • Business Intelligence

    The report explores each of these categories that comprise the Modern Marketing Data Stack, highlighting AI Data Cloud Product Partners and their solutions as “leaders” or “ones to watch” within each category. The report also details how current Snowflake customers leverage a number of these partner technologies to enable data-driven marketing strategies and informed business decisions. Snowflake’s report provides a concrete overview of the partner technology providers and data providers marketers choose to create their data stacks.

    “We’re witnessing a changing of the guard around AI and how marketers capitalize on this massive opportunity as the very shape of the marketing stack evolves, leveraging the Snowflake AI Data Cloud to access and act on data directly where it resides,” said Denise Persson, Chief Marketing Officer at Snowflake. “Coalesce emerged as a leader in the Integration and Modeling Category with joint customers leveraging their platform to build high-quality data products that are accessible for marketing teams, and easily collaborated on with their data experts.”

    Coalesce was identified in Snowflake’s report as a leader in the Integration and Modeling Category for enabling joint customers to build data pipelines on Snowflake’s AI Data Cloud that are accessible and scalable for their marketing teams.

    “We’re proud that Snowflake has identified Coalesce as a leader in Snowflake’s 2025 Modern Marketing Data Stack report,” said Wade Tibke, CMO at Coalesce. “Instant access to trusted and governed data is critical to the success of marketing teams today. Too often, marketing teams feel slowed down or even bottlenecked by centralized data teams that are busy maintaining data infrastructure and pipelines, and overwhelmed with business requests. Our mission is to empower marketing data practitioners of every ability to build data projects at scale, whether that’s updating existing data pipelines feeding critical marketing dashboards, or building entirely new data projects that drive marketing insights and innovation.”

    Click here to read The Modern Marketing Data Stack 2025: How Leading Marketers Are Thriving In a World Redefined By AI, Privacy and Data Gravity.

    About Coalesce
    Coalesce revolutionizes data transformations to accelerate the delivery of data projects. Recognizing data transformation’s critical role in the analytics lifecycle, we’ve created an inclusive developer platform that automates most SQL coding without sacrificing flexibility. Our platform boosts data team efficiency tenfold, allowing faster data pipeline development while empowering organizations to concentrate on extracting maximum value from their data. Discover more at Coalesce.io.

    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Durbin Leads Senators In Demanding Answers From Pfizer, Eli Lilly On New Telehealth Platforms Amid Concerns Of Inappropriate Prescribing

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Illinois Dick Durbin
    10.22.24
    In Letters to Pfizer and Eli Lilly, Durbin, Sanders, Welch, and Warren request details about whether the companies’ new advertising & telehealth schemes create conflicts of interest that steer patients toward particular medications
    CHICAGO – U.S. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) sent a letter to the CEOs of Pfizer Inc. and Eli Lilly demanding answers about the pharmaceutical companies’ recent move to establish new direct-to-consumer (DTC) telehealth platforms.  These new arrangements steer patients toward particular medications and create the potential for inappropriate prescribing that can increase spending for federal health care programs. 
    As Durbin notes in his letters, federal law, specifically the Anti-Kickback Statute, prohibits the willful payment of remuneration to induce patient referrals for Medicare or Medicaid-covered services or goods.  Durbin requested additional information about the nature of Pfizer and Eli Lilly’s contracts with their chosen telehealth platforms, including the characteristics of the medical evaluation and whether the telehealth providers are pressured to prescribe Pfizer or Eli Lilly medications.
    Along with Durbin, the letters were also signed by U.S. Senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Peter Welch (D-VT), and Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) .
    “Pfizer recently launched a new telehealth platform, PfizerForAll, that links patients interested in receiving specific medications with a health care provider who can virtually prescribe that medication…  We write to learn more about the financial relationship between Pfizer and its chosen telehealth prescribers, given the potential implications for the federal Anti-Kickback Statute (AKS),” the Senators began their letter to Pfizer.
    The United States is one of only two countries in the world that permit DTC advertising of prescription drugs, in part because this practice has been shown to increase patient demand for advertised drugs and the likelihood of a patient receiving a prescription for that drug.  Pharmaceutical companies, including Pfizer, spend an estimated $6 billion annually on DTC advertising to boost patient demand for medications.  As a result, a small number of prescription drugs advertised on television accounted for 58 percent of Medicare’s overall spending on prescription drugs between 2016 and 2018. 
    The Senators continued their letter, expressing his concern that Pfizer and Eli Lilly’s new telehealth platforms may be pressuring health care providers into prescribing their medications, which could violate federal law. 
    “The launch of Pfizer’s new telehealth platform, similar to an existing platform for the virtual prescribing of Nurtec, raises questions about the nature of Pfizer’s relationship with its hired telehealth prescribers and the potential for inducement of prescriptions payable by federal health care programs,” the Senators wrote in their letter to Pfizer.
    “After describing Pfizer’s medications and the benefit they can have for patients, Pfizer’s telehealth platform provides a link for patients to ‘talk to a doctor now’ and fill prescriptions via an online pharmacy.  This creates the impression that any patient interested in a particular medication can indeed receive it with just a few clicks, and the appearance of Pfizer’s approval that these chosen telehealth providers can ensure a patient receives the given medication,” the Senators wrote.
    The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of the Inspector General (HHS OIG) has been wary of telehealth platforms, issuing a Special Fraud Alert in 2022 to warn health care practitioners of specific risks of schemes involving telehealth platforms that “intentionally paid physicians … kickbacks to generate … prescriptions for medically unnecessary … medications, resulting in submission of fraudulent claims to Medicare [and] Medicaid.”  HHS OIG listed limited interaction with the purported patient, limited opportunity to review the patient’s medical records, and/or a directive to prescribe a preselected item, regardless of clinical appropriateness as potential fraudulent aspects of telehealth platforms’ arrangements with prescribers.
    In their letter to Pfizer, the Senators points to a specific example of PfizerForAll engaging in behavior that HHS OIG warned about.
    “The nature of the PfizerForAll platform appears to reflect many aspects of the HHS OIG warning for potential fraud.  Unsurprisingly, a patient coming straight from Pfizer’s website to a telehealth appointment with a prescriber chosen by Pfizer is overwhelmingly more likely to ask for Pfizer’s medication.  Further, that prescriber may have an incentive to prescribe such medication, whether or not it is medically necessary or clinically appropriate.  Payments by Pfizer hold the potential to induce specific actions of the prescribing pen,” the Senators wrote.
    The Senators continued, “These concerns are underscored by statements by Pfizer’s chosen prescribing contractor—Populus—for its Nurtec migraine medication.  Populus’ co-founder claimed in reporting by STAT News that more than 90 percent of eligible patients receive a prescription for the brand of drug whose marketing they clicked on, further adding, ‘We’re driving prescriptions.’  Similarly, UpScriptHealth has advertised job openings to prescribers with the statement, ‘on average, providers can complete 6-10 visits an hour’ and by defining ‘a completed visit is either an approval or denial of prescription request,’ which raises concerns about the adequacy of the provider’s patient engagement, quality of medical review, and expected outcomes.”
    The Senators concluded their letters to both Pfizer and Eli Lilly by requesting details about how the companies run their telehealth platforms and if patients are receiving adequate care rather than a hastily written prescription to a heavily-advertised medication produced by the pharmaceutical company.
    Today’s letters are Durbin’s latest action in cracking down on excessive prescription drug advertising that can harm patients and increase prescription drug costs.  Last November, Durbin took to the Senate floor to request unanimous consent for his bipartisan Drug-price Transparency for Consumers (DTC) Act, a bill that would require price disclosures on advertisements for prescription drugs in order to empower patients and reduce excessive spending on medications.  Durbin also introduced the Protecting Patients from Deceptive Drug Ads Online Act, bipartisan legislation that would protect public health and close regulatory loopholes by having the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) address false and misleading prescription drug promotions by social media influencers and telehealth companies. 
    In May, Durbin chaired a Senate Judiciary Committee hearing entitled “Ensuring Affordable & Accessible Medications: Examining Competition in the Prescription Drug Market.”  The hearing examined prescription drug prices, competition, and innovation, and how to ensure medications are accessible and affordable for American families.
    In his role as Chair of the Judiciary Committee, Durbin also supported the advancement of a package of bills, which were reported unanimously out of Committee in February 2023, to lower prescription drug prices.  The package included Durbin’s Interagency Patent Coordination and Improvement Act, which establishes an interagency task force between the United States Patent and Trademark Office and FDA for purposes of sharing information and providing technical assistance with respect to patents.
    A copy of the letter to Eli Lilly is available here.
    A copy of the letter to Pfizer is available here and below:
    October 21, 2024
    Dear Mr. Bourla:
                Pfizer recently launched a new telehealth platform, PfizerForAll, that links patients interested in receiving specific medications with a health care provider who can virtually prescribe that medication.  This manufacturer-sponsored arrangement appears intended to steer patients toward particular medications and creates the potential for inappropriate prescribing that can increase spending for federal health care programs.  We write to learn more about the financial relationship between Pfizer and its chosen telehealth prescribers, given the potential implications for the federal Anti-Kickback Statute (AKS). 
                Direct-to-consumer (DTC) advertising of prescription drugs has been shown to increase both patient demand for specific medications and the likelihood of a patient receiving a prescription for that drug.  Pharmaceutical manufacturers like Pfizer spend an estimated $6 billion annually in DTC advertising to boost patient awareness and demand for advertised medications.  The U.S. is one of only two developed countries in the world that permits such health claims.  The American Medical Association has stated, “direct-to-consumer advertising inflates demand for new and expensive drugs, even when these drugs may not be appropriate.”
                A recent study found that more than two-thirds of drugs advertised on television were considered “low added value.”  This creates concern for taxpayers, as a review by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) found that the small number of prescription drugs advertised on television accounted for 58 percent of Medicare’s overall spending on prescription drugs between 2016-2018.  For example, these DTC advertisements helped to balloon Medicare spending on Pfizer’s Xeljanz to more than $886 million in 2022.
                Telehealth can help to address barriers to care, including by expanding access for patients facing transportation barriers, helping to overcome stigma, and identifying providers when there may be workforce shortages.  But those important aspects of care can be undermined without comprehensive services that ensure a thorough patient evaluation and follow-up, especially if there is any appearance of a conflict of interest for the treatment provider.
    The launch of Pfizer’s telehealth platform, similar to an existing one for the virtual prescribing of Nurtec, raises questions about the nature of Pfizer’s relationship with its contracted telehealth prescribers and the potential for inducement of prescriptions payable by federal health programs.  The Department of Health and Human Services’ Office of the Inspector General (HHS OIG) warns, “as a physician, you are an attractive target for kickback schemes because you can be a source of referrals for … health care … suppliers.”  OIG adds, “many … companies want your patients’ business and would pay you to send that business their way.”
                After describing Pfizer’s medications and the benefit they can have for patients, Pfizer’s telehealth platform provides a link for patients to “talk to a doctor now” and fill prescriptions via an online pharmacy.  This creates the impression that any patient interested in a particular medication can indeed receive it with just a few clicks, and the appearance of Pfizer’s approval that these chosen telehealth providers can ensure a patient receives the given medication. 
    In 2022, the HHS OIG issued a Special Fraud Alert to notify health care practitioners of the specific risks of schemes involving telehealth platforms that “intentionally paid physicians … kickbacks to generate … prescriptions for medically unnecessary … medications, resulting in submission of fraudulent claims to Medicare [and] Medicaid.”  According to the HHS OIG, fraudulent aspects of these arrangements for prescribers may include: limited interaction with the purported patient, limited opportunity to review the patient’s medical records, and/or a directive to prescribe a preselected item, regardless of clinical appropriateness.
    The nature of the PfizerForAll platform appears to reflect many aspects of the HHS OIG warning for potential fraud.  Unsurprisingly, a patient coming straight from Pfizer’s website to a telehealth appointment with a prescriber chosen by Pfizer is overwhelmingly more likely to ask for Pfizer’s medication.  Further, that prescriber may have an incentive to prescribe such medication, whether or not it is medically necessary or clinically appropriate.  Payments by Pfizer hold the potential to induce specific actions of the prescribing pen. 
    These concerns are underscored by statements from Pfizer’s chosen prescribing contractor—Populus—for its Nurtec migraine medication.  Populus’ co-founder claimed in reporting by STAT News that more than 90 percent of eligible patients receive a prescription for the brand of drug whose marketing they clicked on, further adding, “We’re driving prescriptions.”  Similarly, UpScriptHealth has advertised job openings to prescribers with the statement, “on average, providers can complete 6-10 visits an hour” and by defining “a completed visit is either an approval or denial of prescription request,” which raises concerns about the adequacy of the provider’s patient engagement, quality of medical review, and expected outcomes.
    To better understand the nature of Pfizer’s relationship with contracted telehealth prescribers, we request written responses to the following questions by November 25, 2024:
    1.       Do Pfizer’s DTC advertisements for certain medications, including commercials on television or promotions on social media, direct consumers to PfizerForAll or the Nurtec/Populus page?
    1.       How much has Pfizer spent on such advertisements in the most recent six-month period for which data is available?
    2.       How much has Pfizer spent on disease awareness, continuing medical education activities, medical publications, patient advocacy/engagement, or other health promotion directed at prescribers or consumers for diseases related to medications listed on PfizerForAll or the Nurtec/Populus page in the most recent six-month period for which data is available?
    2.       Are any forms of insurance excluded from eligibility or participation with PfizerForAll or the Nurtec/Populus page?  Please list which types of insurance are not eligible to participate.
    3.       Does Pfizer direct, encourage, or educate UpScriptHealth- or Populus-affiliated health care providers to prescribe Pfizer’s medications?
    4.       Did Pfizer share, consult, or communicate with UpScriptHealth or Populus in creating the “discussion guide” for patients to speak with their Pfizer-linked telehealth provider?
    5.       What is the average duration of the virtual health care visit between an UpScriptHealth- or Populus-affiliated health care provider and a patient who is connected to them via Pfizer’s website? 
    1.       After initially filling out information, are such visits always conducted via a video platform, or are there other options available?
    6.       Do UpScriptHealth- or Populus-affiliated health care providers always review the medical history and records of a patient who is connected to them via Pfizer’s website?  If so, please describe in detail how those records are accessed.
    7.       How does Pfizer set the compensation paid to its telehealth partners?  Please provide a copy of the terms of agreement between Pfizer and UpScriptHealth, and between Pfizer and Populus.
    1.       Is Pfizer paying fair market value for the services of UpScriptHealth or Populus?
    2.       Does Pfizer make a bonus payment to UpScriptHealth or Populus based on the number of prescriptions written, including refills?
    3.       Does Pfizer contract with UpScriptHealth or Populus to furnish a certain number of prescriptions for certain medications?
    4.       Would the UpScriptHealth- or Populus-affiliated health care provider have actual or constructive knowledge that a patient was referred to them via Pfizer’s telehealth platform?
    5.       What metrics does Pfizer use to evaluate the performance of its contracts with UpScriptHealth and Populus and affiliated health care providers?
    8.       What data is being provided by UpScriptHealth or Populus to Pfizer as part of these agreements?  Please list all fields or categories of data being provided to Pfizer, including patient information, consumer behavior information, and marketing outcomes information.
    9.       What role, if any, does Pfizer play in collecting, defraying, or otherwise interacting with the co-pay that is associated with the provider consultation on Pfizer’s telehealth platforms?
    10.   Based upon prescribing or claims data that Pfizer has access to, how many prescriptions for a Pfizer medication have UpScriptHealth- or Populus-affiliated health care providers written in the most recent 30-day period for which Pfizer has available information?
    11.   What percentage of consumers who meet virtually with an UpScriptHealth- or Populus-affiliated health care provider receive a prescription for a Pfizer medication?
    1.       What percentage of such consumers receive a prescription for a medication manufactured by another brand-name company?
    2.       What percentage of such consumers receive a prescription for a generic medication?
    3.       What percentage of such consumers receive no prescription?
    12.   How much revenue has Pfizer generated from these telehealth platforms in the most recent 30-day period for which Pfizer has available information?
    13.   Outside of the contract terms with UpScriptHealth or Populus, please provide a list of all payments by Pfizer to each health care provider that is linked to via PfizerForAll over the past 12-month period, including for “speaking,” “consulting,” or other goods, fees, or services.
    Thank you for your attention to this matter.  We look forward to your response. 
    -30-

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: ICYMI: WSJ Ed Board Promotes Ernst’s Telework Transparency Act

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator Joni Ernst (R-IA)
    WASHINGTON – In case you missed it, the Wall Street Journal Editorial Board highlighted Senator Joni Ernst’s (R-Iowa) oversight of federal telework abuse and her bipartisan Telework Transparency Act, which would bring accountability to the billions wasted on unused space and the bureaucrats failing to serve Americans.
    Since August 2023, Ernst has been demanding investigations into 24 federal departments and agencies to determine the impact of telework on their delivery and response times.
    The Absent Government Workforce
    Fully remote work lives on among federal workers, and it’s costing taxpayers.
    By: The Editorial Board
    Working from home every day is a fading memory for most Americans, but it’s become a permanent perk of government work, leaving federal offices vacant. Some lawmakers want to give agencies two options: Call your staff back in or sell off wasted space.
    Sens. Joni Ernst (R., Iowa) and Gary Peters (D., Mich.) are behind the ultimatum. Under their Telework Transparency Act, each federal agency would have to lay out its work-from-home policy and count how many people come into the office. That would give Congress the data it needs to crack down on laggards. The Senate Homeland Security Committee approved the bill by a 12-2 vote last month.
    Congressional action is overdue since nearly every agency has let mass absence linger. Not one of the 24 largest agencies used even half of its office space during a three-month period last year, according to the Office of Personnel Management. The Social Security Administration was essentially a ghost town, with 7% of space occupied.
    Mass government telework has been costly and sometimes crooked. At the Commerce Department, nearly a quarter of sampled employees continued to claim residence in Washington or other pricey cities after moving to less expensive places, which let them keep a higher pay level. Sen. Ernst has catalogued cases of federal employees golfing, taking bubble baths and even sitting in jail on Uncle Sam’s time.
    Yet the Biden Administration has stonewalled attempts to learn the scale of the problem. The nonprofit watchdog Open the Books requested location data for federal workers under the Freedom of Information Act. The Administration returned a document with 281,000 redactions, making it impossible to know how many workers even claim they’re still in the capital.
    The bright side is that once the numbers are gathered, an existing law will force agencies to act. The Federal Property Management Reform Act mandates that the executive branch create and carry out annual plans to reduce unused space. Many agencies have dodged this by being vague about how much space they’re wasting, but the Senate bill would shed light into their vacant cubicles.
    Federal office space eats up about $7 billion a year, including the cost of leasing, maintenance and operations. Selling even some of that would produce worthwhile savings, and perhaps force an agency or two into running more efficiently.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Ezell and Wicker Announce $1 Million Grant for Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport Infrastructure Improvements

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Mike Ezell (Mississippi 4th District)

    Today, Congressman Mike Ezell (MS-04) and Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) announced a $1,000,000 grant to Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport to replace and install a passenger boarding bridge that has reached the end of its useful life. This crucial funding will enhance the airport’s infrastructure, improving both efficiency and safety for travelers.

    “The Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport is a strong partner in the economic vitality of South Mississippi,” Ezell said. “This grant will allow the airport to continue serving South Mississippians and those traveling to our community, ensuring a more efficient and safer travel experience as we enhance the infrastructure that supports our growing community.”

    “When people travel through our airports, whether for travel, leisure, or business, they should have a pleasant experience. This new passenger jet bridge will help ensure this outcome happens in Gulfport,” Senator Wicker said. “Supporting Mississippi’s airport infrastructure will continue to be one of my top priorities as a member of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation Committee.”

    “On behalf of Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport, we greatly appreciate the support of the Congressional delegation in providing funding for infrastructure improvements to enhance the overall flying experience for those traveling to and from South Mississippi,” said Clay Williams, Executive Director, Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport. 

    The Gulfport-Biloxi International Airport is centrally located on the Mississippi Gulf Coast in Gulfport, Mississippi, and is the second largest airport in the state. The airport is approximately two miles from Interstate 10 and the Port of Gulfport, and it welcomes nearly 800,000 travelers each year. This grant will help ensure the airport continues to meet the demands of increasing travel while providing a seamless experience for passengers.

    Background on Ezell’s work on the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee:

    • Ezell has prioritized initiatives that support regional airports, recognizing their role in local economies. His work on the Transportation & Infrastructure Committee has focused on advocating for increased funding for maintenance and improvements at airports like Gulfport-Biloxi.
    • Ezell has been a strong proponent of safety measures in transportation. He believes that investments in airport infrastructure, such as the replacement of outdated boarding bridges, are essential to ensuring safe travel for all passengers.
    • Understanding the importance of timely infrastructure upgrades, Ezell has worked to streamline the processes for federal funding, making it easier for local airports to access the resources they need for essential improvements.
    • Ezell’s efforts on the committee include advocating for infrastructure that stimulates economic growth. By investing in airport upgrades, he is helping to enhance connectivity, attract tourism, and support local businesses.

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: News 10/22/2024 ICYMI on WJHL: Blackburn Lauds Volunteers, Promises FEMA Oversight After Floods

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn)

    NASHVILLE, Tenn. – U.S. Senator Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) spoke with WJHL News Channel 11 during her trip to Northeast Tennessee on Friday, where she received an update from local and state officials on repairs following Hurricane Helene:

    Click here to watch Senator Blackburn’s interview with News Channel 11.

    Blackburn lauds volunteers, promises FEMA oversight after floods

    Murry Lee
    WJHL News Channel 11

    U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) was in Northeast Tennessee surveying damage left by Hurricane Helene on Friday.

    Blackburn toured damage in parts of Northeast Tennessee like Washington and Greene counties. Blackburn went to the remains of the Highway 107 Kinser Bridge and examined the amount of debris in the area.

    News Channel 11 spoke with Blackburn in Greene County during a meeting with local leaders like County Mayor Kevin Morrison and EMA Director Heather Sipe.

    “We are working on flood damage and of course, the response here with the EMA with the mayor, with your local elected officials has really been exemplary,” Blackburn said. “And our team has worked really closely with them. We’re standing up the multi-agency resource centers. We are doing pop-up office hours, and Michael and Kim in our office are working with people to be sure that they recover those Social Security and VA and income tax documents.”

    Blackburn told News Channel 11 it is critical that people and businesses receive the care and attention required after the natural disaster.

    “What we want to do is make certain that FEMA stays on the ground, that individuals are able to apply for all the resources that are available to them, and that FEMA processes these claims in a timely manner, whether it is something for the county, for businesses, or for individuals,” she said.

    Blackburn’s office has also created a web page to direct flood-impacted Tennesseans to resources like FEMA individual assistance and Multi-Agency Resource Centers.

    The senator also praised the volunteer spirit of Tennessee during her visit.

    “Tennessee has the best volunteers and the best communities, and people have stepped up,” she said. “I think it is just so inspiring how they’ve come forward with water and food and furniture and clothing, and the communities are partnering up to help everybody in Upper East Tennessee and help them rebuild. We have so many families that have really lost everything.”

    Blackburn stated that part of the process going forward will be to ensure federal agencies like FEMA and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) fulfill their obligations in the months to come.

    “What we will do is just continue,” Blackburn said. “It’s mostly oversight. There will be some funding provisions and we want to make certain that the agencies are funded adequately so that they respond appropriately to the needs that are there in the communities. And then looking at the oversight for how FEMA and the Small Business Administration and DOT, those agencies that respond in times of disaster to make certain that they do that in the proper manner.”

    RELATED:  

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Congressman Cohen Reintroduces the School Bus Safety Act

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Steve Cohen (TN-09)

    WASHINGTON – Congressman Steve Cohen (TN-9), a senior member of the Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure, today reintroduced the School Bus Safety Act to implement safety recommendations from the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), including installation of seat belts for every seat and safety measures such as stability control and automatic braking systems. The measure, being introduced during National School Bus Safety Week, would also create a grant program to help school districts modify their school buses to implement the safety specifications. Congressman Cohen first introduced a version of the bill in 2018. Senator Tammy Duckworth of Illinois and Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio have introduced a companion measure in the Senate.

    Congressman Cohen made the following statement:

    “There is no more precious cargo than school-aged children entrusted by their parents for a ride to school. The commonsense measures recommended by the NTSB and called for in this legislation will save young lives. I am pleased to reintroduce this legislation with Senators Duckworth and Brown to make school buses across the country safer while helping financially strapped school districts modify their school bus fleets to meet the new specifications. We’ve seen too many deaths and serious injuries in school bus accidents in Tennessee and elsewhere, and it is past time we act to save young lives.”

    “Congressman Cohen is a champion for transportation safety, and I applaud his sponsorship of the School Bus Safety Act,” National Transportation Safety Board Chair Jennifer Homendy said. “School buses are often touted as the safest vehicles on our roads, and yet the NTSB continues to investigate crashes that result in preventable fatalities and injuries involving children, adults who accompany them, and other road users. I’m pleased that the legislation introduced by Rep. Cohen would advance longstanding NTSB safety recommendations, such as requiring school buses to have three-point safety belts and collision-avoidance technology, among other vital safety enhancements. Every school bus crash serves as a painful reminder of the cost of inaction. I thank Rep. Cohen for his leadership and look forward to working with Congress to ensure U.S. school buses are as safe as possible. The NTSB will not rest until the number of lives lost to school bus tragedies is ZERO.”

    The School Bus Safety Act would require the Department of Transportation issue rules requiring all school buses include:

    • A three-point safety belt, which includes a seat belt across a lap as well as a shoulder harness to help protect passengers by restraining them in case of a collision;
    • An Automatic Emergency Braking System, which helps prevent accidents and crashes by detecting objects or vehicles ahead of the bus and braking automatically;
    • An Event Data Recorder (EDR) that can record pre- and post-crash data, driver inputs, and restraint usage when a collision does occur;
    • An Electronic Stability Control (ESC) System that will use automatic computer-controlled braking of individual wheels to assist the driver to remain in control of the vehicle;
    • A Fire Suppression System, which addresses engine fires; and
    • A Firewall that prohibits hazardous quantities of gas or flame to from passing from the engine compartment to the passenger compartment.

    According to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) from 2013 to 2022, there were 976 fatal school-transportation-related crashes, and 1,082 people of all ages were killed in those crashes — an average of 108 fatalities per year.  Congressman Cohen has been a strong advocate of increasing school bus safety, originally introducing this legislation in September of 2018.

    The School Bus Safety Act is supported by the National Safety Council, Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety, the Center for Auto Safety, the National Sheriffs’ Association, the American Academy of Pediatrics, the National Parent Teacher Association (PTA) and Consumer Reports.

    Endorsing organization statements:

    “Every child deserves to get to and from school safely,” said Lorraine Martin, president and CEO of the National Safety Council. “This critical legislation will ensure school buses are equipped with the latest in life-saving technology, including seat belts — a common-sense solution that keeps kids safe. We commend Rep. Cohen for his leadership and look forward to working with him and his Congressional colleagues to advance this measure and protect our country’s youngest travelers.” 

    “Every child deserves a safe journey to and from school, and no family should endure the heartbreak of losing a child in a preventable crash. Essential protections like three-point seat belts and automatic emergency braking (AEB) should be standard on all school buses to help prevent and reduce the impact of crashes. We are grateful to Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN) for championing the School Bus Safety Act in the House of Representatives to ensure vulnerable child passengers are secure.” said Cathy Chase, President, Advocates for Highway and Auto Safety (Advocates)

    “When children are traveling on a school bus, it is imperative that there are commonsense safeguards in place to protect and keep them safe. The American Academy of Pediatrics has long advocated for needed improvements to school bus safety that can save lives and prevent serious injuries, including seat belts and other safety measures. We applaud Representative Steve Cohen (D-Tenn.) for introducing the School Bus Safety Act and call for its swift passage. It is time we enact these long overdue safety measures,” said American Academy of Pediatrics President Benjamin Hoffman, MD, FAAP. 

    “Child safety is the chief concern for parents—during the school day and while traveling to and from school,” said Yvonne Johnson, president of National PTA, the nation’s oldest and largest child advocacy association. “PTA supports standards, regulations and features to help keep children safe while they board, exit and ride on school buses, and our association applauds Representative Cohen for introducing the School Bus Safety Act.” 

    “America’s school buses lack much of the essential safety equipment protecting us in our cars every day, which is why the Center for Auto Safety commends Representative Cohen for the reintroduction of the School Bus Safety Act.  The School Bus Safety Act would protect schoolchildren with effective seat belts and fire prevention, modernize the school bus fleet with automatic emergency braking and electronic stability control, and put in place better data collection on school bus crashes.”  — Michael Brooks, Executive Director, Center for Auto Safety

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    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘They do not respect our land. They do not respect our people’. Brazil’s traditional people take on BHP in one of the world’s biggest class actions

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ebony Birchall, Lecturer, Law School, Macquarie University

    Australian mining giant BHP is at the centre of one of the world’s largest class actions, the trial for which started this week in London.

    The Fundão Dam in Mariana, Brazil, co-owned by BHP, collapsed in 2015 spilling a gigantic wave of toxic mud across 700 kilometres of land. Nineteen people were killed, villages and livestock wiped out, vast areas of land rendered uninhabitable and rivers and water supplies contaminated.

    Corporate accountability

    The class action has renewed questions about the responsibilities multibillion-dollar corporations have to local communities.

    Leaders of the traditional people groups impacted by the disaster visited Australia with their lawyer Tom Goodhead from international legal firm Pogust Goodhead to raise awareness of the case two weeks ago.

    Goodhead told a public forum at Macquarie University this was a case of corporate negligence and putting profit before safety. He said the operators were warned of the risk of dam collapse and continued to push operations beyond what was safe.

    The class action is brought on behalf of more than 600,000 claimants. The trial is expected to run for 12 weeks and will be heard in the UK, because this is where BHP was headquartered at the time of the disaster.

    The UK courts will apply the Brazilian laws, which say environmental polluters must pay for the damage they cause.

    Can BHP fix this?

    The claimants’ lawyers say the case is valued at more than A$68.8 billion. The figure is based on an estimation of the impact of the disaster on land, culture and sacred places, as well as some form of recompense for the lost lives.

    Maycon Krenak, one of the Krenak chiefs, explained:

    [the] river has always been there for us to guarantee our livelihoods. It is a sacred space for us. The river is where we carry out our sacred practices. That’s where we sing, where we dance, where we gather. The new leaders, [our] children, have to learn how to swim in a water tank of a thousand litres.

    BHP is reported as saying its Renova Foundation, established in 2016, has spent more than A$11.5 billion to compensate victims and remediate the environment.

    But Thatiele Monic, president of the Vila Santa Efigênia and Adjacências Quilombola Association said the victims don’t trust the foundation.

    In the same way that the mining company invades our land, the Renova Foundation also is invading our space and our territories. They do not respect our land. They do not respect our people, and they are creating more and more conflict. So that people are essentially giving up pursuing this.

    Poor human rights record

    Australian corporations operating overseas have a poor record on human rights.

    Two weeks ago, a preliminary report of the Panguna Mine Legacy Impact Assessment uncovered human rights violations, including risks to life, at Rio Tinto’s abandoned Panguna mine in Bougainville, Papua New Guinea.

    The gold and copper mine triggered a brutal civil war between 1988 and 1998. Despite decades passing since the mine was decommissioned, the recent report confirms the mine continues to pose risks to life and safety due to the collapsing mine and ongoing contamination down rivers and into new areas.

    Australian mining corporations have also been linked to death and destruction in their operations in Africa.

    Corporate activities within Australia have impacted our own Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples. For example, Rio Tinto’s explosion at Juukan Gorge destroyed sites of cultural significance dating more than 46,000 years.

    Where Australia stands

    The Australian government has endorsed the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights and the OECD Guidelines for Multinational Enterprises both of which outline corporations’ human rights obligations.

    The UNGPs say states should set out clearly the expectation that corporations in their jurisdiction respect human rights in all their operations – even those occurring overseas.

    The Human Rights Law Centre found in a 2018 report on this topic that the Australian government was not doing enough to hold corporations to account.

    It found Australian corporations operating overseas did so with impunity. Efforts to seek justice locally is often thwarted by corruption, lack of resources or ineffective legal process. At the same time, attempts by overseas communities to take legal action in Australian courts face enormous hurdles and rarely succeed.

    This is why cases like the class action for claimants in Mariana are crucial for corporate accountability.

    In my 2023 report with colleagues Surya Deva and Justine Nolan, we found this kind of litigation can raise awareness, facilitate broader industry developments and shape laws and policy.

    Our report also found litigation needs to be supported by strong regulatory responses from governments, and complementary advocacy like shareholder or consumer engagement.

    Cost of litigation

    Litigation comes with significant risks to victims and their allies.

    In a controversial development for corporate accountability in Australia, oil and gas giant Santos is using legal processes to challenge environmental groups who supported traditional owners opposing their Barossa gas project. Santos’ tactics, if allowed to continue, could limit public interest litigation in the future.

    Thatiele Monic ended her speech at the Macquarie University event with a question worth repeating

    This has happened in Brazil, but it has happened in many other places, and if we don’t do anything about it, and we don’t talk about it, it will continue to happen in many more other places. This is not the future I want for myself and for my people. I’d like to know. What future do you want for yourselves?

    Ebony Birchall is affiliated with Macquarie University’s B&HR Access to Justice Lab.

    – ref. ‘They do not respect our land. They do not respect our people’. Brazil’s traditional people take on BHP in one of the world’s biggest class actions – https://theconversation.com/they-do-not-respect-our-land-they-do-not-respect-our-people-brazils-traditional-people-take-on-bhp-in-one-of-the-worlds-biggest-class-actions-241777

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Attorney General Bonta Announces $7.5 Million Settlement with Walmart for Illegal Disposal of Hazardous Waste and Medical Waste

    Source: US State of California

    OAKLAND – California Attorney General Rob Bonta today announced a settlement with Walmart, resolving allegations that the retail corporation unlawfully disposed hazardous waste and medical waste from their facilities statewide to municipal landfills. As part of the settlement, Walmart will be required to pay $7.5 million in penalties and costs and comply with injunctive terms. Attorney General Bonta is joined by the California Department of Toxic Substances Control (DTSC) and the district attorneys of Alameda, Fresno, Monterey, Orange, Riverside, Sacramento, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Joaquin, Solano, Tulare, and Yolo Counties in today’s settlement.

    “Walmart’s illegal disposal of hazardous and medical waste not only violated California laws, but, if left unchecked, posed a threat to human health and the environment. As a result of this investigation and lawsuit, Walmart has taken significant steps to prevent such disposals from happening in the future. This settlement will ensure that Walmart takes the necessary steps to ensure that its hazardous waste is handled and disposed of as required by law,” said Attorney General Bonta. “At the California Department of Justice, we will continue to hold any entity accountable for violating our environmental laws. I’m grateful to the Department of Toxic Substances Control and district attorneys statewide for their partnership in reaching this important settlement.”

    “This settlement is the result of DTSC’s strict enforcement of hazardous waste laws designed to protect public health and the environment,” said Katherine M. Butler, MPH, Director of DTSC. “Holding Walmart accountable for this violation of improper hazardous waste disposal sends a clear message: all corporations must adhere to the environmental laws that protect Californians, without exception. This settlement emphasizes the strength of our law enforcement partnerships across all levels of government and DTSC’s commitment to holding any and all violators responsible.” 

    “With this settlement, Walmart has demonstrated its understanding of the critical importance of environmental responsibility by taking meaningful steps to address concerns and ensure compliance with state standards,” said San Joaquin County District Attorney Ron Freitas. “We value their efforts in not only maintaining a cleaner, safer environment for our community but also in continuing to be a strong partner with our office in the fight against retail theft. Together, we are making strides in safeguarding both the environment and the people of San Joaquin County.” 

    “The unlawful disposing of hazardous and medical waste creates an environmental hazard and public health threat,” said Sacramento County District Attorney Thien Ho. “This case is another example of how the District Attorney’s Office and the Attorney General’s Office can work together to protect our environment and ensure that environmental laws are followed. 

    “The mismanagement of hazardous wastes can result in fires and injuries – this judgment will help to ensure that retail businesses have appropriate policies and procedures in place to protect the safety of their employees, waste management staff, and the public,” said Monterey County District Attorney Jeannine M. Pacioni.

    “Large corporations must be held accountable when they do not follow the law and put the health and safety of Alameda County residents at risk,” said Alameda County District Attorney Pamela Price. “I commend my office’s Consumer Justice Bureau’s active involvement in this investigation which helped bring this settlement forward and holds Walmart to account.”  

    “The protection of the health and safety of the people of our community and the environment are top priorities for our office. The illegal disposal and mismanagement of hazardous waste by employees pose serious risks to the environment, public health, and worker safety,” said Orange County District Attorney Todd Spitzer.  “We will continue to work with our prosecution partners around the state to protect the public by holding businesses such as Walmart accountable for its violations of environmental law.”

    “This settlement brings accountability that helps to protect our environment from toxic waste,” said District Attorney Summer Stephan. “These types of investigations and settlements are a reminder to corporations that they have a responsibility to be a good steward to our environment.” 

    The settlement is the result of over 70 waste audits conducted by the district attorneys’ offices statewide and DTSC from 2015 through 2021. During those audits, the district attorneys’ offices reviewed the contents of waste that Walmart had sent from its facilities to municipal landfills and found thousands of containers of toxic aerosols and liquid wastes including spray paints, rust removers, bleach, pesticides, and medical waste, such as over-the counter drugs. The unlawful disposals are alleged to violate the Hazardous Waste Control Law, Medical Waste Management Act, and Unfair Competition Law.

    The settlement resolves the allegations above and requires Walmart to pay $7,500,000 in civil penalties and costs. The settlement also imposes injunctive terms, which require Walmart to hire an independent, third-party auditor to conduct three annual rounds of waste audits at its facilities throughout California during the next four years. Walmart’s auditor must use specific requirements set forth in the settlement to ensure that the waste is thoroughly and accurately reviewed and characterized, and the audit results must be shared with the Attorney General’s Office, the Department of Toxic Substances Control, and the district attorneys involved in this settlement. 

    A copy of the complaint and proposed stipulated judgment, which details the aforementioned settlement terms and remains subject to court approval, can be found here and here.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Transcript of World Economic Outlook October 2024 Press Briefing

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    October 22, 2024

    Speakers:
    Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas, Director, Research Department, IMF
    Petya Koeva Brooks, Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF
    Jean‑Marc Natal, Division Chief, Research Department, IMF

    Moderator:
    Jose Luis De Haro, Communications Officer, IMF

    Mr. De Haro: OK. I think we can start. First of all, welcome, everyone. Good morning for those who are joining, as online. I am Jose Luis De Haro with the Communications Department here at the IMF. And once again, we are gathered here today for the release of our new World Economic Outlook, titled Policy Pivot Raising Threats. I hope that by this time, all of you have had access to a copy of the flagship. If not, I would encourage you to go to IMF.org. There, you’re going to find the document, but also, you’re going to find Pierre‑Olivier’s blog, the underlying data for the charts, videos, and other assets that I think are going to be very, very helpful for your reporting. And what’s best, that to discuss all the details of the World Economic Outlook that, to be joined here today by Pierre‑Olivier Gourinchas, the Economic Counsellor Chief Economist and the Director of the Research Department. Next to him are Petya Koeva Brooks. She is the Deputy Director of the Research Department. And also with us, Jean‑Marc Natal, the Division Chief at the Research Department. We are going to start with some opening remarks from Pierre‑Olivier, and then we will proceed to take your questions. I want to remind everyone that this press conference is on the record and that we will also be taking questions online.

    With no further ado, Pierre‑Olivier, the floor is yours.

    Mr. Gourinchas: Thank you, Jose, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with the good news. The battle against inflation is almost won. After peaking at 9.4 percent year on year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to 3.5 percent by the end of next year, and in most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets.

    Now, inflation came down while the global economy remained resilient. Growth is projected to hold steady at 3.2 percent in 2024 and 2025. The United States is expected to cool down, while other advanced economies will rebound. Performance in emerging Asia remains robust, despite the slight downward revision for China to 4.8 percent in 2024. Low‑income countries have seen their growth revised downwards, some of it because of conflicts and climate shocks.

    Now, the decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement. Much of that disinflation can be attributed to the unwinding of the unique combination of supply and demand shocks that caused the inflation in the first place, together with improvements in labor supply due to immigration in many advanced countries. But monetary policy played a decisive role, keeping inflation expectations anchored.

    Now, despite the good news, on inflation, risks are now tilted to the downside. This downside risks include an escalation in regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, which could cause serious risks for commodity markets. Policy shifts toward undesirable trade and industrial policies could also significantly lower output, a sharp reduction in migration into advanced economies, which can unwind some of the supply gains that helped ease inflation in recent quarters. This could trigger an abrupt tightening of global financial conditions that would further depress output. And together, these represent about a 1.6 percent of global output in 2026.

    Now, to mitigate these downside risks and to strengthen growth, policymakers now need to shift gears and implement a policy triple pivot.

    The first pivot on monetary policy is already underway. The decline in inflation paved the way for monetary easing across major central banks. This will support activity at a time when labor markets are showing signs of cooling, with rising unemployment rates. So far, however, this rise has been gradual and does not point to an imminent slowdown. Lower interest rates in major economies will also ease the pressure on emerging market economies. However, vigilance remains key. Inflation in services remains too elevated, almost double prepandemic levels, and a few emerging market economies are seeing rising price pressures, calling for higher policy rates. Furthermore, we have now entered a world dominated by supply shocks, from climate, health, and geopolitical tensions. And this makes the job of central banks harder.

    The second pivot is on fiscal policy. It is urgent to stabilize debt dynamics and rebuild much‑needed fiscal buffers. For the United States and China, current fiscal plans do not stabilize debt dynamics. For other countries, despite early improvements, there are increasing signs of slippage. The path is narrow. Delaying consolidation increases the risk of disorderly adjustments, while an excessively abrupt turn toward fiscal tightening could hurt economic activity. Success requires implementing, where necessary, and without delay, a sustained and credible multi‑year fiscal adjustment.

    The third pivot and the hardest is toward growth‑enhancing reform. This is the only way we can address many of the challenges we face. Many countries are implementing industrial and trade policy measures to protect domestic workers and industries. These measures can sometimes boost investment and activity in the short run, but they often lead to retaliation and ultimately fail to deliver sustained improvements in standards of living. They should be avoided when not carefully addressing well‑identified market failures or narrowly defined national security concerns.

    Economic growth must come, instead, from ambitious domestic reforms that boost innovation, increase human capital, improve competition and resource allocation. Growth‑enhancing reforms often face significant social resistance. Our report shows that information strategies can help improve support, but they only go so far. Building trust between governments and citizens and inclusion of proper compensation measures are essential features.

    Building trust is an important lesson that should also resonate when thinking about ways to further improve international cooperation to address common challenges in the year that we celebrate the 80th anniversary of the Bretton Woods Institutions. Thank you.

    Mr. De Haro: Thank you, Pierre‑Olivier. Before we open the floor for your questions, let’s remind some ground rules. First of all, if you have any question that it is related to a country program or a country negotiation, I would recommend not to formulate that question here. Basically, those questions can be formulated in the different regional press briefings that are going to happen later this week.

    Also, if you want to ask a question, just raise your hand, wait until I call you. Identify yourself and the outlet that you represent. And let’s try to keep it to just one question. I know that there are going to be many, many questions. We might not be able to take all of you. So please be patient. There are going to be many other opportunities to ask questions throughout the week.

    Let me start—how I am going to start. I am going to start in the center. A couple of questions here. Then I am going to go to my right, and then I am going to go there. I am going to start in the first row, the lady with the white jacket, thank you.

    QUESTION: Thank you, Jose, for taking my question. I am Moaling Xiong from Xinhua News Agency. I want to ask about the geopolitical tensions that was mentioned in the report. It says there are rising geopolitical tensions. So far, the impact has been limited. But further intensification of geopolitical rifts could weigh on trade, investment, and beyond. I wonder whether Pierre‑Olivier, could you talk a little bit about what are the economic impacts of growing geopolitical tensions? Thank you.

    Mr. Gourinchas: Thank you. This is, of course, a very important question. This is something that we are very concerned about, the rising geoeconomic fragmentation, trade tensions between countries, measures that are disrupting trade, disrupting cross‑border investment. This is something that we have looked at in our World Economic Outlook report. In Chapter 1, we have a box that evaluates the impact of various adverse measures, measures that could be taken by policymakers or various of shocks that would impact output. And when we look at the impact that rising trade tensions could have, there are two dimensions of this. One is, of course, you are increasing tariffs, for instance, between different blocs. That would disrupt trade. That will misallocate resources. That will weigh down on economic activity. But there is also an associated layer that comes from the uncertainty that increases related to future trade policy. And that will also depress investment, depress economic activity and consumption. When we put these two together, what we find is, we find an impact on world output that is on the order of about 0.5 percent of output levels in 2026. So it’s a quite sizable effect of both an increase in tariffs between different countries and an increase in trade policy uncertainty.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. I’m going to continue here in the center. We’re going to go to the gentleman on the third row. Yep. There. There, third row, there. Third row. Thank you.

    QUESTION: Hi. Thanks very much for taking my question. I just want to ask about the inflation side of the WEO. You mentioned just now inflation, you know, the battle is almost won. I am just wondering, there’s sort of a divergence between the advanced economies and emerging markets and developing economies. When do you expect inflation to sort of fall toward that 2 percent target in emerging markets and developing economies? Thanks.

    Mr. Gourinchas: Yes. So inflation, the progress on inflation has been more pronounced for advanced economies, and now we expect advanced economies to be back to their target sometime in 2025 for most of them. For emerging markets and developing economies, there is more variation, and we see an increase in dispersion of inflation, so a lot of countries have made a lot of progress. You look, for instance, at emerging Asia. There are inflation levels very similar to advanced economies for a number of them. You look at other regions—in the Middle East, for instance, or sub‑Saharan Africa—and you have countries that still have double‑digital inflation rates and will maybe take more time to converge back. So we see an increased divergence that reflects some of the shocks that are specific to some of these regions. Of course, conflict or climate‑related shocks can have an impact on inflation, and that’s what we’re seeing in these two regions I mentioned.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. Now I’m going to move to my right. The first row here, the lady with the red suit.

    QUESTION: Hello. This is Norah from Asharq Business with Bloomberg from Dubai.

    Pierre, you mentioned that the geopolitical tensions could account for 0.5 percent of output if things kind of get out of hand. To what extent is this a very optimistic number here? Because we’re talking about tensions not only in the Middle East. You have things going down in the Taiwan Strait. We have the Russian‑Ukraine war still ongoing. And there is a very big risk that shipping lines, straits might get disrupted. And this would affect very substantially the price of oil and other commodities. To what extent this would affect output—again, global output and inflation levels? Would inflation be a big risk again if major commodities prices increased substantially?

    Mr. Gourinchas: Yes. So you are absolutely right. The scenario I was referring to earlier is a scenario where we have increased trade disruptions, tariffs, and trade policy uncertainty. But one can think also about geopolitical tensions impacting commodity market or shipping. Now, this is not something that we looked at in this report. That’s something that we had looked at in our April report. And in April, when we looked at the potential for escalation in conflicts in the Middle East, the impact it could have on oil prices or on shipping costs, we found that this would very much be in the nature of adverse supply shock. It would negatively impact output, and it would increase inflation pressures. Now, the numbers we had when we did that exercise back in April, they’re still very relevant for the environment we’re in now. And that was one of the layers I showed today, is that it would reduce output by another about 0.4 percent by 2026 and would increase inflation by something on the order of 0.7 percent higher inflation in 2025. So this is something that is very much on top of the other tensions that I mentioned. This is why we are living in this world where there are multiple layers of risk that could be compounding each other.

    Mr. De Haro: I’m going to stay here. First row, here. Thank you.

    QUESTION: Thank you. My name is Simon Ateba. I am with Today News Africa Washington, D.C. I would like you to talk a little bit more about the situation in Africa. I know two years ago it was about COVID and then Ukraine. What do you see now? And what are some of the recommendations for sub‑Saharan Africa? Thank you.

    Mr. Gourinchas: So sub‑Saharan African region is one that is seeing growth rates that are fairly steady this year, compared to last year, at about 3.6 percent, and then expected to increase to about 4.2 percent next year. So we’re seeing some pickup in growth from this year to next year. But now, this is certainly a region that’s been adversely impacted by weather shocks and, in some cases, conflict. So the growth remains subdued and somewhat uneven, and that’s certainly something that we are concerned about.

    Let me turn it over to my colleague Jean‑Marc Natal to add some color.

    Mr. Natal: I would be happy to. Do you hear me? OK.

    So yes, so there has been over the last year, year and a half, there has been some progress in the region. You saw, you know, inflation stabilizing in some countries going down even. And reaching close—level close to the target. But half of them is still at distance, large distance from the target. And a third of them are still having double‑digital inflation.

    In terms of growth, as Pierre‑Olivier mentioned, it’s quite uneven, but it remains too low. The other issue is debt in the region. Obviously, it is still high. It has not increased. It has stopped increasing, and in some countries already starting to consolidate. But it’s still too high. And the debt service is correspondingly still high in the region. So the challenges are still there. There has been some progress. So in terms of the recommendation, in countries where inflation is very high, you would recommend, you know, tight monetary policy and in some cases, when possible, helped by consolidation on the fiscal side.

    It’s complicated. In many countries, you know, there are trade‑offs, and, you know, consolidating fiscal is difficult when you also have to provide for relief, like in Nigeria, for example, due to the flooding. So targeting the support to the poor and the vulnerable is part of the package when you consolidate. I will stop here.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. I am moving to my left. I am going to go to the gentleman in the first row.

    QUESTION: Thank you very much. Joel Hills from ITV News. We know that the chancellor in the United Kingdom is planning on changing the fiscal rule on debt to allow for—to borrow more for investment. Pierre‑Olivier, do you support this idea? And what, in your view, are the risks? And should the U.K. government continue to target a fall in debt of some description or a rise in public sector net worth?

    Mr. De Haro: Pierre‑Olivier, before you answer, are there any other questions on the U.K. in the room? I am going to take just two more from this group of U.K. reporters on my right that they are very eager. Just two questions more. We do not want to overwhelm—

    QUESTION: Alex Brummer from the Daily Mail in London. Again, around the chancellor’s upcoming budget. In your opening remarks, you referred to the possibility of abrupt changes in fiscal policy, disrupting what might happen to economies. U.K., according to your forecast, is in a quite good place in terms of growth heading upward. Do you fear that too strong a change in direction in fiscal policy in the U.K. could affect future growth?

    Mr. De Haro: Just one more question.

    QUESTION: Mehreen Khan from The Times. You mentioned that there are some countries at risk of fiscal slippage because governments have promised to do their consolidation have struggled to execute. Is the U.K. in that group? Also, the IMF has previously recommended that countries are under fiscal strain should—can keep sort of investment flowing if they do shift to measures like public sector net worth. Is that still a recommendation that you stand by in particular relevance for the U.K.?

    Mr. De Haro: And to give Pierre‑Olivier a little bit of time, I just want to remind everyone that we will have regional press briefings later this week, and some of these questions can be brought to all heads of departments that are going to be talking later on in the week. Pierre‑Olivier?

    Mr. Gourinchas: First, I will make three quick remarks. We are going to wait and see at the end of this month, on October 30, the details of the budget that will be announced by the U.K. government. And at that point, we’ll be able to evaluate and see the detail of the measures and how they will impact the U.K. economy.

    The broader question, I think, is relevant for many countries, not just the U.K. And it goes to the second pivot I mentioned, this narrow path in terms of fiscal consolidation. I think when countries have elevated debt levels, when interest rates are high, when growth is OK but not great, there is a risk that things could escalate or get out of control quickly. And so there is a need to bring debt levels down, stabilize them when they are not stabilized and rebuild fiscal buffers. That is true for many countries around the world. And if you are not doing that—and that is getting to the question that was asked by the gentleman on the right here—if you’re not doing that, that’s when you find yourself potentially later on at the mercy of market pressures that will force an adjustment that is uncontrolled to a large extent. At which point you have very few degrees of freedom, so you do not want to get in that position. And I think the effort to stabilize public debt has to be seen in that context.

    Now, the other side of the narrow path is, of course, if you try to do too much too quickly, you might have an adverse impact on growth. And you have to be careful there because we do have important—most countries have important needs when it comes to spending, whether it’s about central services, what we think about healthcare, or if we think about public investment and climate transition. So we need to protect also the type of spending that can be good for growth. So finding ways—and this is something that our colleagues in the Fiscal Monitor report emphasize, finding ways to consolidate by reducing expenditures where it’s needed. Maybe raising revenues. Often, it’s a combination of both but doing so in a way that is least impactful on growth. It’s country by country. There is no general formula. But that’s kind of the nature of the exercise.

    That pivot, that second pivot is absolutely essential. At the point we’re at again precisely because we’re in a world in which there will be more shocks and countries need to be prepared and need to have some room on the fiscal side to be able to build that.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. Last question on this side. Then I will go online, and then I will go around the room again. The gentleman in the second row.

    QUESTION: Thanks, Jose. Pierre‑Olivier, a question on Argentina. The IMF is maintaining its projections for the country for next year, improving GDP and inflation, 45 percent at the end of the year. Oh, yes. Sorry. Alam Md Hasanul from International.

    A question on Argentina. The IMF is maintaining its projections for next year, but I wanted to see if you could give us a little bit more detail on, where do you see the economy going. And if it’s accurate to say at this point that the worst of the crisis is in the past? Thanks.

    Mr. De Haro: We have received other questions regarding Argentina online from Lilliana Franco. Basically, she wants to know what’s behind our expectations for inflation for 2025. And I think that there are other Argentine reporters in the room. I see them in the back. Please, if somebody can get them the mic and we can get all the questions on Argentina and then move on to other regions. There. There. Those two, please. Try to keep it short.

    QUESTION: Hi. Patricia Valli from El Cronista. You mentioned the need to keep going with the reforms. And the government in Argentina is implementing a series of reforms. What’s the take of the IMF in terms of these? And if they are perhaps hurting the most vulnerable due to the increase of poverty numbers in Argentina in the past report?

    QUESTION: Hello. Juan Manuel Barca from Clarín Newspaper. I want to know if you raised your employment projection compared to the April—compared to the July forecast.

    Mr. Gourinchas: Yes. So let me first state at the outset that our projections for Argentina have not been updated since July, and the reason for this is because there are ongoing program discussions between the authorities and the Fund. And so while that process is going on, we did not update the projections for the October round.

    Now, to come to the question that was asked on the left. There are two things that are relevant for Argentina, two main things. One is what’s happening on the inflation side. Here, I think the progress has been very substantial. We are now seeing month‑on‑month inflation in Argentina close to 3.5 percent, and this is down from about 25 percent month on month back in December of last year. So very, very significant decline in the inflation rate. So that’s something to acknowledge. And the hope is, of course, that the measures in place will continue to improve the situation on that front.

    On the growth front, what we are saying is that activity has contracted substantially in the first half of the year, but there are signs that it’s starting to gradually recover. Now how much again, I cannot give you an update because we do not have it as of now. But there are signs that there is a recovery in real wages and in private credit and activity.

    Now, of course, this has been difficult for the Argentine economy, the decline in growth of that nature. And that’s something that, again, we are engaged in discussions with the authorities on the best way forward. I cannot comment more than that.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. Now I am going to get a question from our colleagues on WebEx. I think that Weier is there.

    QUESTION: I have a question on China. Given China’s recent implementation of various stimulus measures, such as support for the real estate—real sector and interest rate reductions and other economic incentives, we’ve already seen a major boost in its capital market. So how do you assess the potential impact of these developments on China’s economic recovery and growth perspective?

    Also, how the external effects, such as the Federal Reserve’s easing monetary path, will play a role here. Thank you.

    Mr. De Haro: Before you answer on the Federal Reserve, there’s other questions on China of a similar nature. Recent stimulus announced by the Governor and its effects.

    Mr. Gourinchas: OK. So China, as I mentioned in my opening remarks, we have a slight downward revision for its 2024 growth, compared to our July projections to 4.8 percent. And that’s a revision that’s coming largely due to a weaker second quarter of the year. And that weaker second quarter of the year is reflecting continued decline in confidence in the household and corporate sector and also the continued problems in the property sector in China.

    Now, this is something that, of course, is a top priority to address for the Chinese authorities. And we’ve seen a number of measures that have been announced since the end of last month. First measures, monetary and financial measures announced by the People’s Bank of China, and then some fiscal measures that were announced a few weeks ago.

    These measures in general go in the right direction, from our perspective. They are trying to improve the situation in the property sector. They’re trying to, for instance, lowering borrowing rates or trying to improve the balance sheet of the property developers.

    In our view, in our assessment, the measures announced at the end of last month by the PBOC, although they go in the right direction, are not sufficient to lift growth in a substantially material way. And that’s why our forecast is still at about 4.8 percent for 2024 and is unchanged for next year, at 4.5 percent.

    The new, more recent measures announced a few weeks ago by the Ministry of Finance are not incorporated in our forecast. We are waiting to see the details. I should mention, however, that since then, there has also been a release of the Q3 growth for China, and this has also been a little bit on the disappointing side. So I would say that what we’re seeing in terms of where the Chinese economy might be going is a little bit of a downward revision coming from the Q3 forecast and then potentially some measures that will help lift the economy going forward.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. So we have an additional question online. Basically, it comes from a reporter in Israel who wants to know how the current conflict is affecting the region and the global economy. Also, if there’s any other questions regarding the ongoing conflict, we can go here in the first row, please.

    QUESTION: Hi. Amir Goumma from Asharq with Bloomberg. With the GCC countries increasingly focusing and diversifying their economies away from oil now, how the IMF sees the progress and how you assess that with geopolitical tensions that may affect the attraction of the investment?

    Mr. Gourinchas: OK. So on the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on the countries in the region, and more broadly, let me ask my colleague Petya Koeva Brooks to come in.

    Ms. Koeva Brooks: Sure. Indeed, the conflict has inflicted a heavy toll on the region, and our hearts go to all who have been affected by it. We are monitoring the situation very closely. And what we could say at this stage is apart from the enormous uncertainty that we see is that the fallout has been the hardest in the countries in the region, at the epicenter of the conflict. We’ve seen significant declines in output in West Bank, in Gaza. Lebanon has also been hard hit. Now, we’ve also seen impact in the—on the economy in Israel, although there, I think the—so far at least, the impact has been smaller.

    Now, beyond that, there has also been an impact on commodity prices, on oil prices. We’ve seen quite a lot of volatility, though, as other factors have also come in, such as the concerns about global demand kind of have pushed prices in the opposite direction.

    Now, beyond that, when it comes to specific countries in the GCC region, when it comes to, for instance, Saudi Arabia, we’ve seen there, actually the non‑oil output has done very well, and we do have a small downward revision in the overall growth rate, but that is pretty much because of the voluntary oil cuts that have now been extended through November. Let me stop here. Thank you.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. We are coming here to the center of the room. I’m going to go way back. The gentleman in the blue shirt that I think is the third row from the back. Yep. There. He has—there, there, there. A little bit. Can you stand up? Yep. Perfect. And then I will go with you, with the lady.

    QUESTION: Thank you for doing this. Your alternative scenario about the trade war does not seem so far from reality. Indeed, especially if Trump wins the elections. So could you augment about that? Thank you.

    Mr. De Haro: We have a couple of questions similar to that nature.

    Mr. Gourinchas: Yes. So, I mean, of course, I will first preface by saying we are not commenting on elections or potential platforms here at the IMF. What we are seeing and when we’re looking at the world economy goes beyond what might be happening in a single country. This is why the scenario that we are looking at in Box 1.2 of our World Economic Outlook is one that focuses on, if you want, an escalation of trade tensions between different regions—whether the U.S., the European Union, or China. And the numbers I quoted earlier are reflecting our model estimates of the cumulative impact of this increase in tensions. So I think that this is something that we are very concerned about. We’ve seen a very sharp increase in a number of trade‑distorting measures implemented by countries since 2019, roughly. They’ve gone from 1,000 to 3,000, so tripling of trade‑distorting measures implemented by countries, and 2019 was not a low point. That was already something that was above what we were seeing in the 2010s. So there is definitely, you know, a direction of travel here that we are very concerned about because a lot of these trade‑distorting measures could reflect decisions by countries that are self‑centered but could be ultimately harmful not just to the global economy, but this is the benefits of doing a scenario analysis like the one we did. They are also hurtful for the countries that want to implement them, as well, because the impact on global trade also makes the residents of a country poorer.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. I’m going to take a question from WebEx and then I’m going to go to you. I think that we have a question on the U.S. Please go ahead.

    QUESTION: My question would be regarding the U.S. resilience toward inflation shock. I remember talks about this during the April meetings and the April report. And I wanted to ask you whether you’re still committed to this forecast of the U.S. resiliency, and whether we can still see the risk of recession in the U.S. since recent talks about the unemployment data, it has not always come to the expectations of what the bond market or the stock exchange thinks.

    So is the U.S. still as resilient as you saw it in April this year?

    Mr. Gourinchas: Yes. So, I mean, the news on the U.S. is good in a sense. We have had an upgrade in growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025. The historical numbers have also been revised, so even upgraded 2023, that is already sort of behind us. But the numbers came in, and they were stronger than what was realized. And that strong growth performance has been happening in a context of a continued disinflation. There have been some bumps in the road. The disinflation may not have been proceeding, especially earlier in the year, as quickly as was projected, but lately it has been quite substantial.

    So what accounts for this is two things that are really important there. One is, there is strong productivity growth that we see when we look at the U.S. That’s somewhat unlike other advanced economies, in fact. When we look around the world. And the second is also a very significant role that immigration has played, the increase in foreign‑born workers in the U.S. that have been integrated fairly quickly into the labor force. Now, the increase in unemployment that we’ve seen recently—I just showed it in my opening remarks—reflects to a large extent the fact that you have this increase in foreign‑born workers. And it takes—they have been integrated quickly in the labor force, but still there was an influx of them or there was an influx of them, and it’s taken a little bit of time to absorb them. And that’s what is reflected in the increased unemployment rate. So the labor market picture remains one that is fairly, fairly robust, even though it has cooled off but from very, very tight levels. Growth is solid. So I think the answer to the question that was posed, I think a risk of a recession in the U.S. in the absence of a very sharp shock would be somewhat diminished.

    Now, that is really what paved the way when you think about what the Federal Reserve is doing, seeing this inflation coming down a lot but noticing the increase in unemployment, pivoting away from just fighting inflation, that fight is almost done, and now being more concerned about, maybe what might be happening going forward with the labor market and wanting to make sure that that cooling off of the labor market does not turn into something that is more negative.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. The clock here says that I have seven minutes that I can push a little bit, but we go there. Then we will go to this side. And come back here and maybe end around here.

    QUESTION: Thank you very much. My name is Hope Moses‑Ashike from Business Day Nigeria. So I am right here in this room, in April, you projected the Nigeria economy to grow by 3.3 percent, and you cited improved oil sector, security, and then agriculture. So I want to understand, what has changed since then in terms of Nigeria’s growth and the factors you mentioned? Thank you.

    Mr. Gourinchas: Thank you. Jean‑Marc, do you want to comment on Nigeria?

    Mr. Natal: Yes. Rightly so. We revised growth for Nigeria in 2024 by .2 down. And, you know, things are volatile, I suppose, because the reason for the revision is precisely issues in agriculture related to flooding. And also issues in the production of oil related to security issues, and also maintenance issues that have pushed down the production of oil. So these two factors have played a role.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. We go to this side. I’m going to go to the front row, the lady with the white jacket. Thank you.

    QUESTION: Thank you. So this is still a follow‑up question since you just answered on Nigeria. What’s the IMF’s projection for the social impacts on full subsidy removal, especially when you—full subsidy removal and forex unification in terms of poverty, inequality, and food insecurity? And also, can give us your medium‑term projections for Nigeria’s growth? Thank you.

    Mr. Gourinchas: So I am afraid on this one I will have to go back and check because I do not have the number ready on the impact of the removal of the fuel subsidies specifically that you asked about. I do not know if my colleagues—

    Mr. De Haro: And I would encourage you to formulate this question in the press briefing for the regional outlook for the African Department. Probably there, you will get your answer, but reach out to us bilaterally and then we will get you the question.

    We are going to stay—we’re going to go to the gentleman in the back. Yep.

    QUESTION: Thanks very much. Andy Robinson of La Vanguardia, Barcelona, Spain. There seems to be a strange sort of divergence in the euro zone economy in which Spain—you have revised upwards Spain’s GDP growth forecast a whole point, percentage point, whilst Germany is languishing. Could I ask you, is Spain’s performance sustainable? And Germany’s in a recession?

    Also, one other question. You seem in your box on inflation and wage share and profit share, wage share you seem to be suggesting if there’s any danger of increasing inflation in the future, it’s more an excessive profit share than exactly wage? Could you tell me if that’s a correct interpretation? Thanks.

    Mr. Gourinchas: Yes. So just a few words on the euro area in general. And then I will let my colleague Petya come in on Spain. We do see some divergence across the different countries of the euro area. And one of the drivers is how reliant they are on manufacturing, as one of the key sectors in domestic production. And what you are seeing is, there is a general weakness in manufacturing and that’s heating countries like Germany. While countries that are maybe a bit more reliant on services, including tourism—and Spain is one of them—are seeing a better performance.

    Now, on the second part of your question, and I will turn it over to Petya, on the profit share and wages. We’re seeing now wage growth that is in excess of inflation. And sometimes people say, well, that’s a problem because that means, you know, maybe that cannot be sustained and therefore there will be more inflation. Well, not quite. That’s not the view we have here at the Fund. A lot of the increase in wages in excess of inflation right now—so that’s an improvement in real wages in standards of living—is reflecting a catchup phenomenon. It’s after years during which inflation was higher than wage inflation, wage increase. So real wages are catching up. They are covering lost ground.

    Now, during those years when inflation was higher than wages, profit margins somewhere were higher in the economy. And that is the profit margin that is being eroded back. So it’s not that we’re squeezing profits inordinately right now. It’s just they’re coming back more toward their historical level as real wages are catching up, and that’s not necessarily a concern in terms of inflation dynamics going forward. With this, let me turn it over to Petya.

    Ms. Koeva Brooks: Thank you. Indeed Spain does stand out as one of the countries with a substantial upward revision for this year. We’re now projecting growth to be 2.9, after last year, when it was 2.7. So what’s behind this revision is the positive surprises that we’ve already seen, especially in the second quarter, as well as some of the revisions to the back data.

    And then when we look at the composition of these surprises, again, it was net exports and the receipts from tourism that were a substantial contributor. But also, private consumption and investment also played a role, which may imply that some of the impact of the national recovery plan and the EU funds that are being used could—we could already be seeing the impact of that. And then when we move forward, we are expecting a slowdown in growth next year, but, again, if these—if this investment continues, of course, that would be a very positive factor behind the recovery. Thanks.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. I have time for just one question because literally, we have 15 seconds. So I’m going to go with the gentleman here.

    QUESTION: Thank you. Barry Wood, Hong Kong Radio. Mr. Gourinchas, in April you said likely we will see one rate cut in the United States. We’ve seen it. The data, as you just said, is very good. Would further rate cuts be counterproductive?

    Mr. Gourinchas: Well, in our projections, of course, we need to make some assumptions about what central banks, and this round of projection is no exception. So in our projections just released today, we’re assuming that there will be two more rate cuts by the Fed in 2024 and then four additional rate cuts in 2025. And that would bring the policy rate towards the terminal rate that is around 2.75, 3. Why do we see the additional rate cuts? Well, in part it’s the progress on inflation. And then as I mentioned earlier, as an answer to an earlier question, the fact that we’re seeing the labor markets cooling and therefore the concern for the Fed is now to make sure that that last part of the disinflation process is not one that is going to hit activity. In the Chapter 2 of our report, we describe how that last mile could be somewhat more costly because, as the supply constraints have eased and moved away, it becomes harder to bring down inflation in that last mile without hurting economic activity, so it’s important to also adjust the policy rate path in a direction of a little bit more easing, as the economy is smooth landing.

    Mr. De Haro: OK. As in life, all good things have to come to an end. But before that, I want to thank you all, on behalf of Pierre‑Olivier, Petya, and Jean‑Marc. Also, on behalf of the Communications Department and a couple of reminders for all of you, the Global Financial Stability Report press briefing is going to happen in this same room at around 10:15 a.m. Tomorrow morning, you have the press briefing for the Fiscal Monitor, and later on in the week, you will have the Managing Director’s press briefing and all the regional press briefings that we’ve been talking about. I want to encourage you to go to IMF.org, download the flagships, the World Economic Outlook, and if you have any questions, comments, feedback, everything to media at IMF.org. So have a great day.

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