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Category: CTF

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF and Ukrainian Authorities Reach Staff Level Agreement on the Fifth Review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement– Ukraine

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 10, 2024

    • International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level agreement (SLA) on the Fifth Review of the 4-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF) Arrangement. Subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, Ukraine would have access to about US$ 1.1 billion (SDR 834.8 million).
    • Program performance remains strong. The authorities met all end-June quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and the structural benchmark for the review. Understandings were also reached on policy settings and reforms to sustain macroeconomic stability as the war continues.
    • The economy remained resilient in the first half of 2024, but headwinds are intensifying and the outlook remains exceptionally uncertain. The continuing war will entail fresh financing needs, requiring determined policy efforts by the authorities and large-scale support from donors.

    Kyiv, Ukraine – September 10, 2024: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team led by Mr. Gavin Gray held discussions in Kyiv with the Ukrainian authorities, during September 4-10, 2024, on the Fifth Review of the country’s 4-year EFF Arrangement. Upon the conclusion of the discussions, Mr. Gray issued the following statement:

    “IMF staff and the Ukrainian authorities have reached staff-level agreement on the Fifth Review of the EFF. The agreement is subject to approval by the IMF Executive Board, with Board consideration expected in the coming weeks.

    “Ukraine’s four-year EFF Arrangement with the IMF, continues to provide a strong anchor for the authorities’ economic program in times of exceptionally high uncertainty. Performance under the program has remained strong despite the war, with all quantitative performance criteria for end-June met, as well as the structural benchmark due for this review.

    “Russia’s war in Ukraine continues to have a devastating impact on the country and its people. Skillful policymaking, the adaptability of households and firms, and robust external financing has helped support macroeconomic and financial stability. Real GDP grew by 6.5 percent y/y in the first quarter of 2024, inflation has remained low at 5.4 percent y/y in July, and gross international reserves were adequate at US$42.3 billion as of September 1.

    “However, an economic slowdown is expected in 2024H2 due to repeated attacks on energy infrastructure and the impact of the war on labor markets and confidence; growth is expected at 3 percent for 2024. Addressing the energy deficit ahead of the winter is critical, requiring coordinated efforts, including with international partners. With the war is expected to continue through 2025, real GDP growth is projected to be between 2.5-3.5 percent. Inflation is expected to rise to around 9 percent by end-2024. Risks to the outlook remain exceptionally high.

    “The 2025 Budget needs to respect financing constraints and debt sustainability objectives, and determined domestic revenue mobilization efforts are critical. Timely and predictable external financial support, on terms consistent with debt sustainability, remains indispensable for maintaining economic stability.

    “Tax revenues need to increase in 2025 and beyond to create space for critical spending, to preserve essential buffers and restore fiscal sustainability. Achieving this will require the implementation of permanent tax policy measures and relentless efforts to close existing opportunities for tax evasion, improve compliance, and combat the shadow economy, in line with the National Revenue Strategy (NRS). Legislation to reform the Customs code should confirm the central role of the Finance Ministry in overseeing customs, while robust processes should be established for selecting a permanent head of customs as well as other key leadership roles.

    “The successful treatment of Ukraine’s Eurobonds will deliver substantial debt relief, freeing up resources for priority spending areas. Attention is now shifting to the remaining external commercial claims in the restructuring perimeter, including the GDP warrants, which should be treated in line with the program’s strategy to restore debt sustainability.

    “Upside risks to inflation have reduced the scope for further easing through the end of the year, and the monetary policy stance remains appropriate and consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term. The exchange rate should continue to act as a shock absorber and adjust to market fundamentals, thereby helping to safeguard external stability. Appropriate monetary policy combined with the framework of managed exchange rate flexibility should help prevent excessive exchange rate volatility and the de-anchoring of FX and inflation expectations. A judicious and staged approach to FX liberalization should continue in line with the National Bank of Ukraine’s (NBU) strategy, and consistent with the overall policy mix.

    “Effective governance frameworks are critical for durable growth, levelling the playing field, and pursuing the path to EU accession. In this regard, the independence, competence, and credibility of anti-corruption and judicial institutions should continue to be enhanced. In particular, strengthening the criminal procedural code, establishing a new high administrative court, and reforming the Accounting Chamber of Ukraine are key. The inaugural external audit of the National Anti-corruption Bureau is a short-term priority. The full supervisory board of Ukrenergo should be re-established by end-December.

    “The financial sector is stable and liquid, with reforms continuing apace despite challenges under Martial Law. To preserve financial stability and enhance preparedness for potential shocks, priorities include strengthening the bank rehabilitation framework, contingency planning, and bank governance.

    “The mission met with Finance Minister Marchenko, National Bank of Ukraine Governor Pyshnyy, other government ministers, public officials and civil society. The mission thanks them and their technical staff for their close collaboration and constructive discussions.”


    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Camila Perez

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/11/pr24326-IMF-and-Ukrainian-Authorities-Reach-Staff-Level-Agreement-Fifth-Review-EFF

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  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF statement on Honduras

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 10, 2024

    Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission led by Mr. Ricardo Llaudes issued a statement following in person and virtual discussions with the Honduran authorities on policies to support the authorities’ economic program:

    “The Fund team welcomes the adoption by the Council of Ministers of Honduras of the 2025 draft Budget Bill. The draft Budget is in line with the authorities’ economic program supported by the IMF, providing space for critical social and infrastructure spending.

    “In addition, productive discussions, both virtual and in person, have taken place over the past months on economic policies to safeguard Honduras’ domestic and external stability, paving the way for a program review mission planned for the first half of October.”

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Rosa A Hernandez

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/10/pr24325-imf-statement-on-honduras

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  • MIL-OSI Russia: Harnessing the Power of Integration: A Path to Prosperity in Central Asia

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 11, 2024

    Distinguished guests, I am delighted to be here in Bishkek on my first visit to the Kyrgyz Republic, in the heart of Central Asia.

    This region has been at the crossroads of civilizations for millennia. It is a mosaic of a rich cultural heritage, diverse peoples, and natural endowments that include spectacular mountains, lakes, rivers, and a rich biodiversity. It is also located very favorably at the crossroads of Asia and Europe. Needless to say, it is quite truly a unique region!

    As we gather here today to discuss the economic possibilities for the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) region, we all recognize that the world is changing rapidly, and this is a pivotal moment.

    It reminds me of another time of momentous opportunity, when the region gained independence in the 1990s. Since then, the CCA countries have made remarkable progress by unleashing their first wave of market- oriented reforms, generating higher growth and improving living standards.

    But new and unprecedented challenges have emerged. The Covid-19 pandemic and its aftermath are only just in our rear-view mirrors, as the region confronts emerging challenges from climate change to regional conflicts. The global economy has also shifted with geoeconomic fragmentation emerging as a key risk.

    The theme of my remarks today is simple: in this changing world, raising living standards in the CCA region requires bold, concerted action.

    We must strengthen stability and resilience, promote regional integration, and launch a new wave of reforms. This is how we can unleash the full economic potential of the region and its vibrant young populations, accelerate growth, create jobs and open-up opportunities for generations to come.

    Building on Macroeconomic Stability

    It is important to remind ourselves of the global context as we consider what is needed to propel the region to the next level of economic growth and prosperity.

    The world economy has shown remarkable resilience in the face of the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and an inflation surge. Global growth bottomed out at 2.3 percent in 2022 and is expected to rebound to 3.2 percent in 2024 and 3.3 percent in 2025. Initial fears of recession and uncontrolled wage-price spirals fortunately did not materialize and there is less economic scarring from the pandemic than anticipated.

    However, medium-term growth projections remain below historical averages. Persistence of inflation in parts of the world, geopolitical conflicts, and the gaps in structural reforms needed to promote efficient resource allocation remain critical challenges. Global inflation is projected to decline to 5.9 percent in 2024 and 4.5 percent in 2025, with advanced economies returning to inflation targets before emerging market and developing economies.

    The risks to the outlook are still considerable. Notably, geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts pose downside risks, potentially causing new price spikes. Other risks include rising trade protectionism, increasing inequality, and financial market volatility. At the same time, the fact that this year saw the hottest day on record for the planet serves as a stark reminder of daunting challenges due to climate change.

    Policymakers in the CCA region deserve full credit for navigating their economies through these turbulent times and maintaining macroeconomic stability. Rapid COVID virus containment, decisive policy actions, and robust international support have led to a swift recovery, with the region growing at 4.9 percent in 2023.

    Inflation fell in most CCA countries, including in the Kyrgyz Republic, amid exchange rate appreciations and a decline in commodity prices. Inflation remained more persistent in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan due to strong domestic demand, elevated inflation expectations, and energy price reforms in Kazakhstan.

    In the April Regional Economic Outlook, we projected a growth slowdown to 3.9 percent in 2024, but inflows of income, capital, and migrants from Russia, and rerouting of trade though the region have again boosted growth to impressive high single digits so far this year in oil importing CCA economies, including the Kyrgyz Republic. In Kazakhstan, on the other hand, growth is expected to slow to 3.1 percent in 2024 before picking up to 5.6 percent in 2025 as production increases from the Tengiz oil fields.

    Over the medium term, growth in the region is expected to moderate to under 4 percent and inflation stabilize in mid-single digits. Escalation of the war in Ukraine and the Gaza conflict, however, could cause commodity price volatility and a reversal of the recent trade patterns.

    Achieving macroeconomic stability is just a beginning. It is not sufficient to meet the aspirations of current and future generations.

    Now is the time for us to come together and take bold steps to unleash a new wave of reforms that will durably raise growth, create more jobs, and improve living standards. This requires reforms to increase productivity, strengthen resilience to shocks, and expand markets.

    While this is ambitious, it is within our reach as long as there is consensus to move ahead on this path. The current favorable macroeconomic conditions offer a promising window of opportunity because, as our research shows, structural reforms yield greater growth dividends during economic expansions.

    From Stability to Prosperity

    Historically, this region has been a vital link between Europe and Asia, serving as a conduit for trade, culture, and innovation.

    Today, regional integration can once again harness this potential. It can facilitate the freer movement of goods, services, capital, and people, increase market size and economic efficiency, and promote inclusive prosperity.

    Moreover, deepening ties within the region and global markets can foster stability and peace. Regional integration is therefore not just an opportunity, but an economic necessity.

    Reducing nontariff trade barriers, boosting infrastructure investment, and enhancing regulatory quality could increase trade by up to 17 percent on average in the CCA region, as our research shows. They can also improve market access and foster diversification.

    Transportation networks, such as roads, railways, and ports are essential to facilitate cross-border trade. The planned construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway is an illustration of cross-country cooperation to improve connectivity between the East and the West, supporting the region’s ambition to regain its historical role. 

    You have abundant renewable energy resources in the region, including hydro, solar and wind power. Enhanced energy cooperation will help develop regional energy markets, ensure security, and create export opportunities. Collaborative projects, such as Kambarata-1, can help diversify the energy mix and reduce dependency on fossil fuels. Critically, it can also improve water availability for neighboring countries.

    Both of these investments—the railway and Kambarata-1—hold enormous potential for regional development and connectivity. Collective effort in mobilizing expertise and financing is essential for full realization of this potential while sustaining macroeconomic stability that has been a hallmark of the region’s recent achievements.

    This brings me to the importance of regional cooperation in addressing the risks of climate change, which requires immediate and resolute actions from all of us.

    A Path to a Low-Carbon Future

    The CCA region is highly vulnerable to climate change. Temperatures are rising fast, and droughts and floods have become more frequent and severe, causing immense damage to crops, infrastructure and livelihoods. We estimate that unabated climate change could cause a loss of annual output of nearly 6.5 percent in the region by 2060.

    The good news is that these losses could be substantially reduced by joint actions to cut emissions, adapt to climate change, and manage the risks of transition to a low-carbon economy.

    The region must collaborate to promote green technologies, improve energy efficiency, and manage natural resources sustainably. Scaling back energy subsidies and introducing carbon-pricing mechanisms can contribute to global mitigation efforts. In this respect, the Kyrgyz Republic’s commitment to raising electricity tariffs and gradually eliminating energy subsidies is a shining example.

    Such decisive measures can enhance resilience to climate change and create higher-paying jobs–green jobs that pay 7 percent more on average.

    Reforms for Enhanced Growth and Stability

    To fully realize the benefits of regional integration, structural reforms are essential. Our research finds that such reforms could lift output by 5-7 percent in the next 4 to 6 years.

    Let me highlight a few key areas where structural reforms can help achieve this boost:

    A vibrant private sector is the engine of growth. Strengthening governance, property rights and the rule of law, and reducing the state footprint in the economy by simplifying regulations, fostering competition, and combating corruption will build confidence and attract private investment.

    Importantly, we find that governance reforms yield the highest growth dividends and amplify the positive impacts of other reforms. The implication is clear: governance reforms should be prioritized and accompanied by other reforms.

    Prudent management of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is also critical. While some SOEs serve essential public-policy objectives and should remain in public hands, it is crucial that they operate efficiently and do not crowd out the private sector.

    In most cases, however, the private sector is more efficient in delivering goods and services and creating jobs. Therefore, privatization of non-essential SOEs can lead to more dynamic and competitive markets, enhancing growth and resilience.

    Investments in education, health, and digital infrastructure are vital to boost productivity. The full potential of the region’s young and dynamic population can only be unleashed through high quality education and healthcare.

    Enhancing digital infrastructure also offers vast opportunities for productivity growth, especially in a region with young people eager to embrace new technologies.

    As the CCA starts to reap the benefits of these reforms, it is equally important to ensure that growth benefits all segments of society, and the vulnerable are shielded from the impacts of energy subsidy reforms and climate change. Well-targeted social assistance is essential for reducing poverty and inequality.

    Benefits work best when they incentivize work and are targeted and timely to support adversely affected households during economic downturns but scale back when the recovery takes hold. Empowering women and promoting gender equality can unlock significant economic potential and contribute to more inclusive growth.

    IMF’s Commitment to CCA Stability and Growth

    The IMF has been a steadfast partner of the CCA region since its initial days of independence. We provide policy advice, financing, and technical assistance to help our members in the region stabilize their economies, develop sustainable growth, and reduce poverty.

    The IMF stands by all its member countries in both prosperous and challenging times. For example, our assistance during the COVID-19 pandemic helped our membership weather the crisis and lay the groundwork for recovery.

    To better support our member in the CCA, the IMF established the Caucasus, Central Asia, and Mongolia Regional Capacity Development Center. This center provides technical assistance and training to help countries in the region build stronger institutions and implement sound economic policies. It also represents our long-term commitment to the region’s development.

    Conclusion

    Let me conclude. Since its early days of independence, the CCA region has shown tremendous perseverance in laying the foundation of a prosperous, peaceful society.

    Today, you are confronting new global challenges that test the resilience and adaptability of your economies. Embracing continued market-oriented reforms is the most effective strategy to strengthen your economies. Now is the time to forge ahead with bold spirits.

    The IMF will continue to support your efforts, working in partnership for the benefit of all people in this region and beyond.

    Thank you.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Angham Al Shami

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100 Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/11/sp09112024-harnessing-power-integration-path-prosperity-central-asia-dmd-bo-li

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  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Denmark

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 13, 2024

    Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with Denmark.

    The Danish economy has continued to expand at a robust pace, driven by an exceptional surge in the pharmaceutical. In contrast, the rest of the economy has remained relatively subdued, aside from the maritime and information and communication technology industries, reflecting sluggish demand. Meanwhile, with a decline in global energy prices and lackluster domestic demand, inflationary pressures have largely dissipated in recent months.

    Growth is anticipated to gradually moderate in the near term but become more balanced across industries. Output growth is projected to moderate from 2.5 percent in 2023 to 1.9 percent in 2024 and to 1.6 percent in 2025. The growth of pharmaceutical and maritime exports will taper off, while that of the rest of the economy will be bolstered by a pickup in external demand, improved consumer purchasing power, and further easing of financial conditions. The reopening of the Tyra natural gas will also contribute to growth in 2024 and 2025. Inflation might temporarily edge up in the coming months due to the lagged effect of last year’s wage collective bargaining agreement before stabilizing at around 2 percent during the second half of 2025. The balance of risks to growth is skewed to the downside, with primary downside risks including a global slowdown, the possible escalation of the conflict in Gaza and Israel and Russia’s war in Ukraine, and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation.

    Executive Board Assessment[2]

    In concluding the 2024 Article IV consultation with Denmark, Executive Directors endorsed staff’s appraisal, as follows:

    Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended Denmark’s remarkable resilience amidst multiple shocks, underpinned by sound policies, strong governance, and robust institutions. Noting a positive outlook with more balanced growth and stabilizing inflation, Directors cautioned that risks—including from a global growth slowdown, geoeconomic fragmentation, and demographic pressures—are tilted to the downside. To navigate these challenges and maintain Denmark’s welfare state, they emphasized the importance of continued sound macroeconomic management, supported by structural reforms to boost productivity, and lift long‑term growth.

    Directors commended Denmark’s robust public finances. They concurred that fiscal policy should consider cyclical conditions and long‑term spending needs. In this regard, Directors agreed that fiscal policy should avoid adding to capacity pressures in the short term. They supported the slight easing of the fiscal stance for 2025 and beyond to accommodate the increases in costs related to health, climate, and defense. To safeguard long‑term fiscal sustainability, Directors encouraged the authorities to closely monitor fiscal pressures and take additional adjustment measures if necessary.

    While noting that the financial system remains sound, Directors recommended that the authorities continue to closely monitor risks, in particular, related to the commercial real estate sector. They welcomed the recent tightening of macroprudential policies and suggested considering additional borrower‑based measures to address pockets of vulnerabilities.  Continued collaboration on the Nordic‑wide bank stress tests would also be important. Directors encouraged the authorities to further strengthen AML/CFT and cybersecurity frameworks.

    Directors agreed that systemic risks arising from nonbank financial institutions (NBFIs) warrant closer monitoring and enhanced customer protection. They encouraged the authorities to develop a systemic risk assessment encompassing banks and NBFIs and to finalize a supervisory order to enhance customer protection.

    Directors emphasized the importance of continued reform efforts to increase the labor supply, address skills mismatches, and better integrate migrants.  They were encouraged by the authorities’ strong commitment to further enhance digitalization, innovation, and business dynamism to boost productivity growth. Directors welcomed Denmark’s commitment to transparent free‑trade policies within the multilateral and rules‑based trading system.

    Directors commended the authorities’ ambitious climate change mitigation targets and the agreement to reduce emissions in the agriculture sector. They encouraged updating the estimates of the investment needs for climate adaptation.

    Denmark: Selected Economic Indicators

    2023

    2024

    2025

    proj.

    Output

    Real GDP growth (%)

    2.5

    1.9

    1.6

    Employment

    Unemployment rate (%)

    2.8

    2.9

    3.0

    Prices

    Inflation (%, average)

    3.4

    1.8

    2.2

    General Government Finances

    Revenue (% GDP)

    50.1

    49.6

    48.8

    Expenditures (% GDP)

    46.8

    47.8

    48.0

    Fiscal balance (% GDP)

    3.3

    1.8

    0.9

    Public debt (% GDP)

    29.7

    28.2

    27.3

    Money and Credit

    Domestic credit growth (%)

    3.2

    …

    …

    3-month interbank interest rate (%)

    3.4

    …

    …

    10-year government bond yield (%)

    2.4

    …

    …

    Balance of Payments

    Current account (% GDP)

    9.8

    9.0

    9.3

    International reserves (% change)

    1.3

    …

    …

    Exchange Rate

    ULC-based REER (% change)

    -0.4

    …

    …

    Sources: Statistics Denmark; OECD; and IMF staff calculations.

     

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Boris Balabanov

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/12/pr-24327-denmark-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation

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  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Kingdom of Lesotho

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 11, 2024

    • Lesotho’s GDP growth has improved modestly, picking up to 2.2 percent in the fiscal year ending in March 2024. Inflation increased in the second half of 2023, peaking at 8.2 percent in January 2024. But upward pressures have eased, and inflation has since fallen to 6.5 percent in June.
    • The outlook for Lesotho’s fiscal and external balances has improved significantly owing to windfall transfers from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and renegotiated water royalties.
    • In this context, and amid Lesotho’s sizable development needs, a key challenge for the authorities will be to ensure that this revenue is saved wisely and spent strategically.

    Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation[1] with the Kingdom of Lesotho.

    GDP growth picked up modestly to 2.2 percent in 12-month period ending March 2024, compared with 1.6 percent a year earlier. This largely reflects accelerated construction from the Lesotho Highlands Water Project. Nonetheless, unemployment remains high, diamond and textile exports have been sluggish, and an exceptional dry season increased food-security concerns across the country.

    Headline inflation reached 6.5 percent in June, up from 4.5 percent in July 2023, though down from a peak of 8.2 percent in January 2024. The increase in inflation was largely due to exogenous factors that will most likely fade going forward.

    Lesotho registered a sizable fiscal surplus of 6.1 percent of GDP in during the fiscal year ending March 2024. In a change from past practice, transitory SACU transfers
    (10.4 percent of GDP higher than in FY22/23) were not accompanied by a parallel increase of the public wage bill. Instead, the authorities used the SACU proceeds to reduce arrears and rebuild deposits at the Central Bank.

    In support of the Loti’s peg to the Rand, the Central Bank of Lesotho has kept the policy rate steady at 7.75 percent since May 2023, in line with policy rates in South Africa.

    Financial conditions remain stable—private sector credit growth picked up to 12.5 percent in FY23/24, mainly due to construction, while the nonperforming loans have eased to
    3.8 percent of total loans as of 2023 Q4.

    Growth is projected to peak in the fiscal year ending in March 2025 (at 2.7 percent), while inflation is expected to ease slowly. Another year of windfall SACU transfers (6 percentage points of GDP above the 10-year average) will again bolster fiscal and external balances in FY24/25. These transfers are projected to fall sharply starting in FY25/26, though higher water royalties will help fill the gap. As a result, the fiscal balance is projected at a surplus of around 1 percent of GDP over the medium term, with the current account deficit at a modest
    2.6 percent.

    The authorities are encouraged to continue their prudent fiscal approach, ensuring that additional revenues are saved wisely and spent strategically, while also pushing ahead with reforms to support private sector-led growth.

    Executive Board Assessment[2]

    Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They welcomed the recent pickup in growth but concurred that Lesotho’s economy faces substantial challenges, including high unemployment, widespread poverty, and sluggish growth. They also noted the risks posed by global growth shocks, extreme weather events, uncertain transfers from the South African Customs Union (SACU), and commodity price volatility. Against this background, Directors welcomed the authorities’ commitment to strengthening policy frameworks, supported by Fund capacity development as needed.

    Directors emphasized the need for continued fiscal prudence to strengthen foreign exchange reserve coverage, safeguard the peg, and preserve medium-term debt sustainability. They agreed that containing the public wage bill, increasing spending efficiency, and prioritizing social spending on the most vulnerable remain critical. Given increased water royalties, Directors encouraged the authorities to establish a well-governed savings framework anchored by a credible fiscal rule to build buffers and support Lesotho’s long-term development objectives.

    Directors agreed that public financial management (PFM) should be strengthened. They encouraged passage of PFM-related legislation, and improved budget processes, strengthened internal controls, and enhanced financial reporting. Directors also underscored the importance of boosting public investment efficiency, through a prioritized capital project pipeline with enhanced project management capacity.

    Directors concurred that monetary policy should focus on price stability and safeguarding the exchange rate peg. They noted the slowdown in inflation, but urged the authorities to monitor price dynamics closely and stand ready to adjust monetary policy if inflationary pressures reemerge. Directors encouraged the authorities to improve central bank governance and coordinate closely across institutions on fiscal and monetary policies.

    Directors noted that the financial sector remains stable and encouraged continued monitoring of risks, including from the nonbank financial sector. They concurred that an updated national financial inclusion strategy would be key to improving financial intermediation and supporting private sector growth. They welcomed the progress made in strengthening legal and regulatory frameworks for financial stability and AML/CFT.

    Directors strongly encouraged the authorities to implement much-needed structural reforms to catalyze job-rich inclusive growth, including by improving the business environment, strengthening governance, and reducing corruption risks. They lauded the authorities’ commitment to improving data quality and timeliness to support policymaking.

    Lesotho: Selected Economic Indicators, 2020/21–2029/301
     

    2020/21

    2021/22

    2022/23

    2023/24

    2024/25

    2025/26

    2026/27

    2027/28

    2028/29

    2029/30

    Act.

    Act.

    Act.

    Est.

    Projections

    (12-month percent change, unless otherwise indicated)

    National Account and Prices

    		                    

    GDP at constant prices (including LHWP-II)

    -5.3

    1.7

    1.6

    2.2

    2.7

    2.4

    1.9

    2.1

    2.1

    2.1

    GDP at constant prices (excluding LHWP-II)

    -3.0

    4.4

    1.4

    1.5

    1.6

    1.7

    1.8

    1.9

    1.9

    2.0

    GDP at market prices (Maloti billions)

    34.2

    36.0

    38.5

    41.5

    45.2

    48.8

    52.4

    56.1

    60.0

    64.4

    GDP at market prices (US$ billions)

    2.1

    2.4

    2.3

    2.2

    2.3

    2.4

    2.5

    2.7

    2.8

    2.9

    Consumer prices (average)

    5.4

    6.5

    8.2

    6.5

    6.7

    5.8

    5.6

    5.3

    5.1

    5.1

    Consumer prices (eop)

    6.5

    7.2

    6.8

    7.4

    6.0

    5.5

    5.4

    5.3

    5.0

    5.0

    GDP deflator

    5.2

    3.5

    5.3

    5.4

    6.0

    5.4

    5.3

    4.9

    4.9

    5.1

    External Sector

    		                    

    Terms of trade (“–” = deterioration)

    3.5

    -1.6

    -3.2

    -5.9

    -2.7

    0.6

    0.1

    -0.6

    0.1

    0.1

    Average exchange rate

    		                    

    (Local currency per US$)

    16.4

    14.9

    17.0

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    Nominal effective exchange rate change (– depreciation)2

    -8.7

    6.3

    -3.0

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    Real effective exchange rate (– depreciation)2

    -6.0

    8.7

    -1.9

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    Current account balance (percent of GDP)

    -5.7

    -9.0

    -13.8

    -0.2

    -0.7

    -2.3

    -2.3

    -3.2

    -2.9

    -2.5

    (excluding LHWP-II imports, percent of GDP)

    -2.3

    -6.5

    -9.6

    6.4

    3.6

    1.7

    0.1

    -1.5

    -1.9

    -1.6

    Gross international reserves

    		                    

    (Months of imports)

    4.1

    4.3

    4.0

    4.3

    4.9

    5.7

    6.2

    6.3

    6.4

    6.5

    (excluding imports for LHWP-II, months of imports)

    4.2

    4.5

    4.3

    4.5

    5.0

    5.9

    6.3

    6.4

    6.4

    6.5

    Money and Credit

    		                    

    Net international reserves

    		                    

    (US$ millions)

    718

    846

    671

    755

    916

    1,121

    1,258

    1,343

    1,417

    1,513

    (Percent of M1 Plus)

    109

    127

    111

    114

    137

    163

    179

    185

    190

    197

    (US$ millions, CBL calculation)

    777

    843

    698

    755

    843

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    (Percent of M1 Plus, CBL calculation)

    118

    127

    116

    114

    126

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    Domestic credit to the private sector

    -3.0

    6.7

    8.7

    12.5

    9.0

    8.1

    8.0

    8.3

    7.4

    7.7

    Reserve money

    16.5

    1.0

    24.5

    24.0

    1.9

    1.2

    1.6

    1.6

    2.1

    2.3

    Broad money

    12.2

    0.0

    8.7

    15.2

    3.9

    5.0

    5.1

    5.4

    5.1

    5.4

    Interest rate (percent)3

    3.8

    3.5

    3.5

    4.7

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    …

    (Percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

    Public Debt

    54.7

    58.4

    64.5

    61.5

    59.9

    59.7

    59.8

    59.8

    59.5

    59.5

    External public debt

    42.9

    42.3

    47.2

    47.8

    46.6

    46.4

    46.2

    46.2

    46.0

    46.0

    Domestic public debt

    11.7

    16.1

    17.3

    13.7

    13.3

    13.3

    13.5

    13.5

    13.5

    13.5

    Central Government Fiscal Operations

    		                    

    Revenue

    54.4

    48.8

    44.6

    56.5

    63.4

    61.1

    57.8

    55.6

    55.6

    54.8

    Domestic revenue (excluding SACU transfers and grants)

    25.1

    27.2

    27.6

    29.3

    31.0

    36.6

    34.9

    33.7

    33.7

    33.7

    SACU transfers

    26.2

    16.7

    14.0

    24.5

    25.6

    19.3

    18.5

    17.5

    17.5

    17.5

    Grants

    3.1

    4.9

    3.0

    2.8

    6.9

    5.2

    4.3

    4.3

    4.3

    3.6

    Recurrent expenditure

    43.0

    38.6

    40.5

    40.8

    42.0

    40.9

    40.9

    40.8

    40.8

    40.8

    Of which: wages, including social contributions

    17.6

    17.0

    18.0

    17.1

    16.8

    16.7

    16.6

    16.4

    16.4

    16.4

    Capital expenditure

    11.4

    15.5

    9.6

    9.6

    16.3

    14.3

    13.9

    14.0

    14.1

    13.5

    Additional fiscal measures

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Overall balance

    0.0

    -5.4

    -5.5

    6.1

    5.1

    5.8

    3.0

    0.8

    0.6

    0.5

    (excluding SACU transfers and grants)

    -29.3

    -27.0

    -22.5

    -21.1

    -27.3

    -18.6

    -19.8

    -21.1

    -21.3

    -20.6

       Operating balance

    0.0

    -5.4

    -5.5

    6.1

    5.1

    5.8

    3.0

    0.8

    0.6

    0.5

    Primary balance

    1.6

    -4.0

    -3.6

    8.1

    6.7

    7.5

    4.8

    2.7

    2.6

    2.6

    (excluding SACU transfers and grants)

    -27.7

    -25.6

    -20.6

    -19.2

    -25.7

    -17.0

    -18.0

    -19.2

    -19.3

    -18.6

    Statistical discrepancy

    -0.6

    0.6

    2.2

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Sources: Lesotho authorities, World Bank, and IMF staff calculations.

    1 The fiscal year runs from April 1 to March 31.

    		                    

    2 IMF Information Notice System trade-weighted; end of period.

    		                  

    3 12-month time deposits rate.

    		                    

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Julie Ziegler

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/10/pr-24324-lesotho-imf-executive-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Kenya

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 17, 2024

    Washington, DC: An International Monetary Fund (IMF) team, led by Haimanot Teferra, visited Nairobi during September 11-16 and held discussions with Kenyan authorities on recent developments and their policies to manage the emerging challenges.

    At the conclusion of the visit, Ms. Teferra issued the following statement:

    “The Kenyan authorities and IMF staff had productive discussions on the authorities’ policies and reforms to address the evolving economic and fiscal challenges.

    “We remain fully committed to support the authorities on their efforts to identify a set of policies that could support the completion of the reviews under the ongoing program as soon as feasible. The authorities expressed commitment to advancing economic and governance reforms which are crucial for fostering sustainable and inclusive growth that benefits all Kenyans. We will continue our discussions with the authorities.”

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Pavis Devahasadin

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/17/pr-24332-kenya-imf-staff-concludes-visit

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation Discussions with the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Curaçao and Sint Maarten

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 17, 2024

    Washington, DC: On September 10, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation discussions[1] with the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Curaçao and Sint Maarten and endorsed the staff appraisal without a meeting on a lapse-of-time basis[2]. These consultation discussions form part of the Article IV consultation with the Kingdom of the Netherlands.

    Context. Curaçao and Sint Maarten have continued to experience a vigorous post-pandemic recovery underpinned by strong stayover tourism, which is outperforming Caribbean peers. Headline inflation has declined rapidly led by international oil price developments, notwithstanding a recent uptick, while core inflation remains elevated. In both countries, current account deficits improved markedly from pandemic years but remain high. Fiscal positions remained strong and in compliance with the fiscal rule. The landspakket, the structural reform package agreed with the Netherlands in 2020, continues to guide both countries’ reform agenda.

    Curaçao outlook. Growth is expected to accelerate in 2024 before gradually converging to its potential over the medium term. Stayover tourism supported by fiscal expansion is projected to drive economic growth at a robust 4.5 percent in 2024 due to new airlifts and further expansion in hotel capacity. Growth is then expected to moderate to reach 1.5 percent over the medium term, given subpar investment and productivity growth coupled with sustained population decline and beginning saturation in tourism flows, assuming no further reforms and diversification. Headline inflation is projected to decline mildly to 3.2 percent in 2024 from 3.5 percent in 2023, but to continue falling towards its steady state of around 2 percent by 2027 reflecting international price developments. Fiscal balances would be guided by the fiscal rule and debt would continue to decline, while surpluses narrow as investments return and social spending pressures mount. The current account deficit is expected to improve in the medium term but would remain elevated.

    Sint Maarten outlook. Growth is expected to moderate in the medium term as tourism recovery and the reconstruction taper off. Growth is expected to be 2.7 percent in 2024 and 3 percent in 2025, supported by a delayed recovery in cruise passengers towards pre-pandemic levels. However, the near-term outlook is threatened by the electricity load shedding (since June) and political instability. From 2026 onwards, growth is expected to gradually converge towards 1.8 percent as the stimulus from the reconstruction peters out, and tourism growth becomes constrained by the island’s carrying capacity and ailing infrastructure. Inflation is expected to remain broadly contained while remaining vulnerable to international price developments. Over the medium term, the government will continue to comply with the golden fiscal rule and capacity constraints will continue to weigh on public investment.

    Monetary Union. Monetary policy is appropriately targeted towards maintaining the peg. Efforts to absorb excess liquidity should continue while closely monitoring developments in core inflation driven by tourism-related services. The financial sector is sound and risks to financial stability have substantially diminished as the CBCS advances its reform agenda. Banks are highly liquid and adequately capitalized and systemic risks are contained. Building on the CBCS’s strong progress in strengthening supervisory and regulatory capacity, and the recent resolution agreement for ENNIA, staff welcomes CBCS’s continued efforts in its reform agenda, including financial stability and crisis management.

    Executive Board Assessment[3]

    Curaçao

    Curaçao’s economy successfully embraced the pivot towards tourism-led growth, giving rise to a strong near-term outlook. After losing key traditional industries, Curaçao quickly and successfully leveraged its tourism potential to grow, attract new hotels, and create jobs. While this is serving the economy well in the near term – growth is projected to accelerate to 4½ in 2024 – structural shifts have started to emerge, including a low-skilled, informal recovery of the labor market amidst low investment in non-tourist sectors. Growth is expected to moderate over the medium term given saturation in tourism flows, sustained population decline, and subpar investment. Notwithstanding the economy’s recent overperformance, inflation declined significantly and only reversed some of its gains recently on the back of higher international oil prices and unfavorable base effects. Inflation is expected to gradually converge towards its steady state rate of around 2 percent. Fiscal policy remains guided by the fiscal rule, albeit past surpluses are expected to unwind, allowing for the reversal of pandemic wage cuts and a return of public investments. The current account markedly improved thanks to lower oil prices but the deficit remains elevated.

    Risks to the outlook are broadly balanced. Growth slowdown in major economies could negatively impact tourism receipts, while positive surprises could boost foreign demand. Domestically, a successful expansion of renewable energy and faster-than-expected development of hotel capacity and yachting marinas would boost growth, while delays in public investment and more persistent core inflation could dent tourist experience and competitiveness.

    Efforts to safeguard recently created fiscal space are welcome. Overall surpluses in 2022 and 2023 helped reduce debt and granted access to favorable financing terms from the Netherlands. Safeguarding this space and avoiding procyclical impetus is warranted, including through more gradual unwinding of pandemic wage cuts in 2024, prudent liquidity management to repay a bullet loan in 2025, and general efforts to strengthen tax administration, review procurement and domestic arrears management, and streamline transfers to public entities. Ensuing room for maneuver could be used for priority investments, including for climate adaptation, guided by a medium-term fiscal framework steering towards the island’s debt anchor.

    Healthcare and pension reforms are needed to lock in a sustainable expenditure path and mitigate medium-term fiscal risks. Growing health and old-age pension deficits, exacerbated by an aging population, pose risks to the sustainability of public finances. Recent initiatives to incentivize the use of generics and raise the pension age are commendable, and more needs to be done to put the system on a sustainable path. Staff sees a broad range of efficiency gains in health spending, including lowering pharmaceuticals and laboratory costs and enhancing primary care’s gatekeeping role. Reforms on the revenue side, including broadening the contributor base and increasing co-payments, are politically more difficult.

    Sustaining the positive growth momentum in the medium term requires investments in capital and labor and resolving existing growth bottlenecks. First, moving up the value chain with high-end resorts and complementary recreational activities would help sustain valuable income growth from tourism but requires scaling up investments in infrastructure and deregulating the transportation sector. Second, further investments in electricity grid and energy storage, as well as a revised pricing strategy, are needed to accompany the ongoing energy transition and reap its vast benefits, including lower fuel imports, emissions, and electricity prices. The envisaged floating offshore wind park for hydrogen production would be a game changer for the island. Boosting public investment to achieve these objectives, however, requires ramping up capacity in planning and execution. Third, to further stimulate growth and offset the sustained population decline, formal labor markets and skills would need to be strengthened. And fourth, continued improvements in the business climate in line with the landspakket’s economic reform pillar could help overcome decade-low productivity growth.

    Important strides in reducing ML/FT vulnerabilities are welcome and could be built upon. The draft online gaming law, implementation of risk-based supervision, and a new law to address EU grey listing and enable automatic information exchange represent important strides in enhancing Curaçao’s defenses against ML/FT and related reputational risks. Curaçao can further improve upon these important accomplishments, including by passing and implementing the aforementioned legislations in a timely manner and enhancing coordination and monitoring across relevant agencies.

    Sint Maarten

    Near-term growth is strongly anchored but preserving the positive momentum hinges on investments to revamp an ailing infrastructure and improve tourism’s value added. The economic recovery is well underway, underpinned by tourism recovery and the reconstruction. GDP is expected to surpass its pre-Irma level in 2025. However, without investments to upgrade an ailing infrastructure, growth will falter as the island approaches its maximum carrying capacity. Strategies should continue to focus on enhancing tourist’s experience, differentiating from other Caribbean destinations, and improving tourism’s value added.

    A comprehensive strategy is required to durably resolve the electricity crisis. Mobile electricity generators have been leased and efforts to replace old engines are underway. Once the immediate crisis is resolved, efforts should be devoted towards developing a detailed masterplan for the energy transition with targets, projects, costing, timeline, and a comprehensive assessment of ancillary investments. The Trust Fund could receive a new mandate, beyond 2028, to operate as a public investment agency in charge of planning, securing the financing, and implementing plans for the energy transition.

    Revenue mobilization efforts are essential to ensure fiscal sustainability. Plans to lower tax rates, to make the country more competitive with neighboring islands, should be avoided as this would reduce government’s revenues and endanger fiscal sustainability. Instead, additional revenues are required to satisfy the fiscal rule, service loans with the Netherlands, raise public wages to attract and retain talent, increase transfers to cover public health costs, and clear public arrears with the SZV. Envisaged reforms to enhance the tax administration and to digitize and interface government systems should be complemented with plans to i) tax casinos’ profits, turnover, and winnings; ii) enforce the lodging tax on short-term rentals, and income and profit tax on the proceeds from such rentals; iii) update the price of land leases; and iv) institute a tourist levy at the airport.

    Without reforms, the healthcare and pensions funds are unsustainable. Health premiums and government transfers are insufficient to cover health costs, which are being cross-financed with pension savings. With unchanged policies, given population aging and rising administrative costs, both health and pensions funds will run deficits by 2027, and the SZV would deplete its liquid assets by 2027. By 2030, the government would need to transfer about 4 percent of GDP per year to sustain the system. Reforms are urgently needed to contain health costs including: i) introducing the General Health Insurance, ii) rationalizing benefits, iii) extending the use of generics, iv) optimizing referrals, v) strengthening preventing care, and vi) adopting out-of-pocket payments. Given the rapid pace of population aging, additional measures such as increasing the contribution rates and linking the retirement age to life expectancy, should also be considered.

    Strengthening the implementation of AML/CFT measures is necessary to increase effectiveness of the AML/CFT regime. Laws for an effective AML/CFT framework were approved but their implementation is lagging. UBO registration is yet to begin, while the investigation and prosecution of suspicious activities is lacking. Granting the FIU full independence to investigate and prosecute cases, and increasing its budget for recruitment and operations could strengthen the AML/CFT framework.

     

    The Monetary Union of Curaçao and Sint Maarten

    The current account deficit is expected to improve in the medium term but would remain elevated, while international reserves are expected to remain broadly stable. Large CADs in both countries are expected to improve and remain well-financed, leading to a stable and broadly adequate level of international reserves over the medium term. Curaçao’s external position is assessed to be weaker than implied by fundamentals and desired policy settings due to an elevated CAD and sustained appreciation of the real effective exchange rate, while that of Sint Maarten is considered in line with fundamentals and desired policy settings.

    Monetary policy is appropriately targeted towards maintaining the peg. In line with global monetary policy tightening, the CBCS increased its benchmark rate during 2022-23 and has kept it unchanged since September 2023. Efforts to absorb excess liquidity should continue while closely monitoring developments in core inflation driven by tourism-related services. Even though credit growth declined further and reached negative territory in real terms amidst monetary tightening, the transmission mechanism of monetary policy remains weak. Structural factors include the absence of interbank and government securities markets. The continued increase in mortgages, the only credit component to display growth, was accompanied by a broadly stable loan-to-value ratio on aggregate, albeit more granular data is needed to monitor potential vulnerabilities. Further acceleration in mortgage credit could warrant introducing a macro prudential limit below the currently by banks self-imposed ratio.

    The financial sector is sound and risks to financial stability have substantially diminished as the CBCS advances its reform agenda. Banks are highly liquid and adequately capitalized and systemic risks are contained. Near-term risks to financial stability have substantially diminished with the agreement for a controlled wind-down of ENNIA and the start of the restructuring process, as well as the CBCS’s continued improvements in supervision, regulation, and governance. Staff welcomes CBCS’s initiatives to establish a financial stability committee, further refine stress-testing, and enhance crisis management capacities, including lender of last resort and a deposit insurance scheme.

    Table 1. Curaçao: Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, 2020–25

    (Percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated)

     

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    Prel.

    Prel.

    Prel.

    Prel.

    Proj.

    Real Economy

    Real GDP (percent change)

    -18.0

    4.2

    7.9

    4.2

    4.5

    3.5

    CPI (12-month average, percent change)

    2.2

    3.8

    7.4

    3.5

    3.2

    2.4

    CPI (end of period, percent change)

    2.2

    4.8

    8.4

    3.1

    3.2

    2.4

    GDP deflator (percent change)

    2.2

    3.8

    4.0

    3.5

    3.2

    2.4

    Unemployment rate (percent) 1/

    13.1

    13.5

    7.2

    7.0

    6.9

    6.6

    Central Government Finances 2/

    Net operating (current) balance

    -15.0

    -10.6

    0.7

    0.6

    0.0

    0.5

    Primary balance

    -13.2

    -8.8

    2.0

    2.5

    2.0

    1.9

    Overall balance

    -14.5

    -10.0

    1.0

    1.3

    0.1

    0.5

    Central government debt 3/

    87.1

    90.3

    81.6

    70.8

    65.4

    61.1

    General Government Finances 2, 4/

    Overall balance

    -15.7

    -10.4

    0.3

    0.9

    -0.3

    -0.1

    Balance of Payments

    Current account

    -27.2

    -18.6

    -26.8

    -19.7

    -17.9

    -16.5

    Goods trade balance

    -37.0

    -41.6

    -47.9

    -38.3

    -40.4

    -39.9

       Exports of goods

    10.7

    12.5

    18.0

    16.9

    16.5

    16.2

       Imports of goods

    47.7

    54.1

    65.9

    55.2

    56.9

    56.1

    Service balance

    9.6

    21.7

    20.5

    18.4

    22.6

    23.7

       Exports of services

    29.3

    37.2

    48.6

    46.6

    50.3

    51.3

       Imports of services

    19.7

    15.6

    28.1

    28.2

    27.7

    27.6

    External debt

    197.3

    194.8

    180.9

    177.1

    169.1

    164.0

    Memorandum Items

    Nominal GDP (millions of U.S. dollars)

    2,534

    2,740

    3,075

    3,318

    3,578

    3,789

    Per capita GDP (U.S. dollars)

    16,492

    18,135

    20,648

    22,160

    23,775

    25,065

    Credit to non-government sectors (percent change)

    0.1

    -9.7

    3.2

    2.5

    …

    …

    Sources: The Curaçao authorities and IMF staff estimates and projections.

    1/ Staff understands that the unemployment rate of 7.0 percent published in the 2023 Census data is not comparable to the historically published unemployment rates from the labor force survey by the Curacao Bureau of Statistics. As such, staff estimated the unemployment rate and overall labor force for the period of 2012 to 2022. Staff understands that the Curacao Bureau of Statistics intends to revise the historical series in the near future.

    2/ Defined as balance sheet liabilities of the central government except equities. Includes central government liabilities to the social security funds.

    3/ Budgetary central government consolidated with the social security fund (SVB).

    4/ The latest available datapoint is as of 2018. Values for 2019-2023 are IMF staff estimates based on BOP flow data.

     

     

    Table 2. Sint Maarten: Selected Economic Indicators 2020–25

    (Percent of GDP unless otherwise indicated)

     

    2020

    2021

    2022

    2023

    2024

    2025

    Est.

    Est.

    Est.

    Est.

    Proj.

    Real Economy

     

    		    

    Real GDP (percent change) 1/

    -20.4

    7.1

    13.9

    3.5

    2.7

    3.0

    CPI (12-month average, percent change)

    0.7

    2.8

    3.6

    2.1

    2.5

    2.3

    Unemployment rate (percent) 2/

    16.9

    10.8

    9.9

    8.6

    8.5

    8.2
       

    Government Finances

     

    		    

    Primary balance excl. Trust Fund operations 3/

    -8.7

    -5.4

    -0.6

    1.5

    0.9

    0.9

    Current balance (Authorities’ definition) 4/

    -9.6

    -6.3

    -1.5

    0.5

    -0.1

    0.0

    Overall balance excl. TF operations

    -9.3

    -5.9

    -1.1

    1.0

    0.2

    0.2

    Central government debt 5/

    56.1

    55.3

    49.3

    49.0

    46.2

    44.1
       

    Balance of Payments

     

    		    

    Current account

    -25.5

    -24.6

    -3.9

    -7.5

    -7.8

    -3.0

    Goods trade balance

    -40.7

    -49.8

    -59.2

    -59.3

    -62.4

    -60.5

       Exports of goods

    11.8

    11.4

    14.1

    14.8

    13.1

    11.2

       Imports of goods

    52.4

    61.2

    73.2

    74.1

    75.5

    71.7

    Service balance

    20.2

    33.1

    62.8

    60.3

    62.6

    65.2

       Exports of services

    34.4

    51.0

    78.7

    81.4

    81.5

    83.9

       Imports of services

    14.3

    17.9

    15.9

    21.1

    18.9

    18.7

    External debt 6/

    274.3

    253.7

    213.6

    206.3

    200.8

    194.0
       

    Memorandum Items

    		    

    Nominal GDP (millions of U.S. dollars)

    1,141

    1,268

    1,479

    1,563

    1,645

    1,733

    Per capita GDP (U.S. dollars)

    26,796

    29,646

    34,437

    36,088

    37,570

    39,160

    Credit to non-gov. sectors (percent change)

    2.4

    1.3

    4.5

    1.0

    …

    …
               

       Sources:

    		            

       1/ Central Bank of Curacao and Sint Maarten and IMF staff estimates.

    		            

       2/ The size of the 2022 labor force reported by the 2023 Census was adjusted to ensure consistency with the reported total population.

       3/ Excludes Trust Fund (TF) grants and TF-financed special projects.

    		  

       4/ Revenue excl. grants minus interest income, current expenditure and depreciation of fixed assets.

    		  

       5/ The stock of debt in 2018 is based on financial statements. Values in subsequent years are staff’s estimates and are higher than the values under authorities’ definition in quarterly fiscal reports.

       6/ The latest available datapoint is as of 2018. Values for 2019-2022 are IMF staff estimates based on BOP flow data.

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] The Executive Board takes decisions under its lapse-of-time-procedure when the Board agrees that a proposal can be considered without convening formal discussions.

    [3] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation of any qualifiers used in summings up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Reah Sy

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/17/pr-24330-curacao-and-sint-maarten-imf-board-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation-discussions

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Germany: Announcement of a multi-ISIN auction – Reopening of two Federal bonds

    Source: Deutsche Bundesbank in English

    A digital euro would be a digital form of central bank money, specifically the euro. It could be used by the general public in much the same way as cash, only in virtual form. Alongside cash, the Eurosystem would thus supply households with an additional form of central bank money that can be used quickly, easily and securely.

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI German News –

  • MIL-OSI Germany: Reopening Federal bond issue – Auction result

    Source: Deutsche Bundesbank in English

    A digital euro would be a digital form of central bank money, specifically the euro. It could be used by the general public in much the same way as cash, only in virtual form. Alongside cash, the Eurosystem would thus supply households with an additional form of central bank money that can be used quickly, easily and securely.

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI German News –

  • MIL-OSI Germany: Invitation to bid by auction – Reopening of Federal Treasury notes

    Source: Deutsche Bundesbank in English

    A digital euro would be a digital form of central bank money, specifically the euro. It could be used by the general public in much the same way as cash, only in virtual form. Alongside cash, the Eurosystem would thus supply households with an additional form of central bank money that can be used quickly, easily and securely.

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI German News –

  • MIL-OSI Germany: Invitation to bid – Federal Treasury discount paper (Bubills)

    Source: Deutsche Bundesbank in English

    A digital euro would be a digital form of central bank money, specifically the euro. It could be used by the general public in much the same way as cash, only in virtual form. Alongside cash, the Eurosystem would thus supply households with an additional form of central bank money that can be used quickly, easily and securely.

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI German News –

  • MIL-OSI Germany: Announcement of auction – Reopening 7-year Federal bond

    Source: Deutsche Bundesbank in English

    A digital euro would be a digital form of central bank money, specifically the euro. It could be used by the general public in much the same way as cash, only in virtual form. Alongside cash, the Eurosystem would thus supply households with an additional form of central bank money that can be used quickly, easily and securely.

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI German News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: HK-SZ ecological meeting held

    Source: Hong Kong Information Services

    Secretary for Environment & Ecology Tse Chin-wan today led a delegation to Shenzhen to attend the Hong Kong-Shenzhen Joint Working Group on Environmental Protection meeting where various collaboration issues were discussed.

    The Hong Kong and Shenzhen delegations discussed landfill management, marine pollution prevention and control, and cross-border transportation using new energy.

    Both sides also reported on the progress of various work items.

    The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government has completed a freezing survey of the number and locations of oyster rafts in Deep Bay, and will continue to maintain close communication with Shenzhen regarding the management of the oyster rafts.

    Regarding the North East New Territories Landfill, Hong Kong has implemented a series of improvement measures and will continue to collaborate with Shenzhen to further enhance odour control at the landfill.

    Mr Tse said he looked forward to continuing to strengthen communication and co-operation with Shenzhen on ecological and environmental protection through the joint working group to enhance the work on environmental protection and ecology, as well as make proactive contributions to the country’s ecological civilisation.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: HK rises to 3rd in finance hub ranking

    Source: Hong Kong Information Services

    Hong Kong has been ranked third in the Global Financial Centres Index 36 Report, published today by the UK’s Z/Yen and the Shenzhen-based China Development Institute, up from fourth place in the March version of the index.
     

    The city also ranked first in the Asia-Pacific region. Its overall rating rose by eight points, the largest improvement among the top five financial centres.
     

    The Government said the report clearly affirms Hong Kong’s status and strengths as a leading global financial centre, highlighting that its scores were among the highest for business environment, human capital, infrastructure, and reputational and general competitiveness.
     

    The city’s rankings for investment management, insurance, banking and professional services also rose significantly. In particular, the city’s ranking rose to first globally for investment management.
     

    In the ranking of financial centres’ fintech offerings, Hong Kong rose five places to ninth, putting it among the top 10 fintech hubs globally.
     

    Hong Kong’s asset and wealth management business is also booming, with assets under management growing by about 2% from the previous year to more than $31 trillion at the end of 2023. Net fund inflows reached $390 billion, more than 3.4 times the level of the previous year. 
     

    The development of Hong Kong’s family office sector also continues to gain momentum. Since its launch in March, the New Capital Investment Entrant Scheme has so far received more than 550 applications. It is expected to bring in investment of more than $15 billion to the city.
     

    The Government said that as an international financial centre, Hong Kong brings together the world’s top financial institutions and talent, provides professional financial services, and has a deep and broad capital market.
     

    Hong Kong’s regulatory system aligns with those of major overseas markets, allowing the free flow of information and capital, it added.
     

    The Government stressed that under “one country, two systems”, Hong Kong enjoys the unique position of being backed by the motherland and connected to the world, which empowers it to fully leverage its role as a “super connector” and “super value-adder”.
     

    The Government added that it will continue to promote the financial sector’s high-quality development.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Themes of the 40th and 41st World Youth Days

    Source: The Holy See

    Themes of the 40th and 41st World Youth Days, 24.09.2024

    40th World Youth Day (2025)
    “You also are my witnesses, because you have been with me” (Jn 15:27)
    41st World Youth Day (2026 and Seoul 2027)
    “Take courage! I have overcome the world.” (Jn 16:33)

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Students urged to be aware of fire safety

    Source: Northern Ireland Direct

    Date published:

    Students are urged to be aware of the dangers of fire. Fire safety advice could be one of the most important lessons for students during their time at university or college.

    Smoke alarm and fire escape plan

    All students should take personal responsibility for looking after themselves and their housemates to protect them from the dangers of fire.

    Living away from home, especially if it’s for the first time, can be very exciting and it’s easy to get caught up in student life and forget about fire safety.

    Check your student accommodation to make sure it’s fire safe and fire safety checks should always be part of your routine.

    It’s important to have a working smoke alarm fitted on each level of accommodation and to test them once a week. This will alert you and your housemates to the earliest stage of a fire, giving vital extra time to escape.

    You should follow a good fire safe bedtime routine – checking a few things before going to bed can reduce the risk of fire. It only takes a minute and could save lives, so:

    • make sure all electrical appliances not designed to be left on are disconnected
    • fully put out cigarettes
    • close all doors

    Also, take some time to agree a fire escape plan to make sure everyone is clear what to do in an emergency. This means knowing where the fire exits are and making sure furniture or stored items do not block them.

    If there is no fire exit, plan an alternative escape route other than by the main entrance door.

    You can find out more about fire safety at this link:

    If you go home at weekends, make sure that accommodation is safely secured and protected from the risk of fire.

    Student fire safety advice

    You should:

    • test your smoke alarm every week
    • prepare a fire escape plan and know where your door keys are
    • carry out a night-time fire safe check routine
    • never leave cooking unattended, not even for a minute
    • never cook, light candles or use electric heaters when under the influence of alcohol
    • turn off all electrical appliances not designed to be left on
    • avoid overloading sockets
    • make sure you don’t leave phone, tablet and laptop on their chargers longer than necessary
    • put a guard on open fires
    • put out all cigarettes and empty ashtrays into a non-combustible container
    • never smoke in bed

    You should also check that any fire alarm system in your accommodation is working.  If it is showing a fault, contact the landlord or the Estates Officer at the university immediately.

    If a fire starts:

    • close the door on the fire
    • alert everyone in the property if safe to do so
    • get out and stay out
    • call 999 and get the Fire and Rescue Service out

    There is more information at this link:

    More useful links

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Consultation to open on whether draft Local Plan conforms to national planning policies

    Source: St Albans City and District

    Publication date:

    A technical consultation is to be held on whether a draft Local Plan for St Albans District has met all the necessary legal requirements.

    The Local Plan (LP) is a blueprint for future growth and identifies land for infrastructure, employment and housing developments in the years to 2041.

    It has been produced by St Albans City and District Council and has taken more than three years’ work to reach this stage.

    Residents, community groups, businesses, neighbouring local authorities and other organisations have helped shape the document by contributing to previous consultations.

    Numerous studies have also been undertaken to assess the impact of the proposals on the environment, transport, heritage, the Green Belt and social issues such as education and leisure.

    External planning and legal experts have also helped the Council’s spatial planning team to carry out some of the detailed work and provide a detached perspective.

    Councillors on the Planning Policy and Climate Committee gave approval for the next statutory procedure at its meeting on Monday 23 September.

    They agreed to start what is known as the Regulation 19 Consultation to allow for public comment on the draft LP’s compliance and ‘soundness’ with national planning policies.

    Chris Traill, the Council’s Strategic Director for Community and Place Delivery, said after the meeting:

    This has been described as something of a technical consultation.

    We are not asking people for feedback on their general views on the draft LP, but are asking whether it is in line with planning law and national planning policy.

    Neighbouring councils, for instance, need to consider if we have met our duty to cooperate with them while producing the draft LP.

    We have a responsibility as a Council to deliver an LP that conforms with planning law and national policies and we are confident that we have done so. This consultation, though, will put that to the test, allowing for any concerns to be raised.

    The consultation will start on Thursday 26 September and continue for six weeks to Friday 8 November.

    In the meantime, Full Council will decide whether to approve the draft LP at its meeting on Wednesday 16 October.

    Following this, the Planning Policy and Climate Committee on Thursday 28 November will consider a report on the Regulation 19 consultation feedback.

    Provided the draft LP was approved by Full Council and it is considered to be in accordance with national policy, it will then be submitted to the Government for examination by an independent planning inspector.

    Previously, it was intended to submit a draft LP in March next year. The timetable was brought forward to avoid potential changes to national planning policy that could have meant starting the whole LP process again from scratch.

    Ms Traill added:

    We feel it is very much in the interests of our residents to submit a Local Plan as soon as we can. We will be able to update it when required to.

    A delay of two or three years could leave us more open to speculative planning applications for all sorts of developments. It is these piecemeal, opportunistic developments rather than ones which form part of an overarching Local Plan that can cause major problems. They often don’t take sufficiently into account the impact on infrastructure, demand for school places and other issues.

    The draft LP proposes nine new primary schools, four new secondary schools, sites for 15,000 new homes, including social housing, locations for 15,000 jobs, and new parks and health facilities.

    Residents and other stakeholders gave their general views about the draft LP at an earlier Regulation 18 consultation, helping to shape the proposals.

    You can take part in the Regulation 19 consultation and view the draft LP along with other documents at https://www.stalbans.gov.uk/new-local-plan.

    Media contact: John McJannet, Principal Communications Officer: 01727 819533, john.mcjannet@stalbans.gov.uk.

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Smokers offered free support so they can Swap to Stop

    Source: City of Wolverhampton

    The Government recently announced a number of measures to ensure that the country achieves its ambition of becoming Smokefree by 2030, including the provision of a million ‘Swap to Stop’ kits as a way to support people to quit smoking.

    The City of Wolverhampton Council is working to make these kits available at a range of community venues, including the city’s 8 Family Hubs, the 3 WV Active leisure centres and Bilston, Warstones and Wednesfield libraries.

    The service will be delivered by trained members of staff, who will offer free vape starter kits alongside support and weekly ‘check-in’ sessions delivered from the convenience of local community venues to help people on their quitting journey over a period of 12 weeks.

    The new service was officially launched this week. To sign up for free, please visit Swap to Stop.

    Councillor Jasbir Jaspal, the City of Wolverhampton Council’s Cabinet Member for Adults and Wellbeing, said: “Stopping smoking is the best thing you can do for your health and the health of those around you.

    “Smoking is still the single largest preventable cause of death in England, accounting for around for 64,000 deaths annually. Almost every minute of every day someone is admitted to hospital with a smoking related disease – but, when you stop smoking, there are almost immediate improvements to your health.

    “And it’s not just your body which will benefit, your purse or wallet will too. On average smokers spend £38.59 a week on tobacco – and that means you could have around £2,000 more to spend a year by quitting, and even more if you are a really heavy smoker.

    “Nicotine vaping is substantially less harmful than smoking and is also one of the most effective tools for quitting, so we are delighted to deliver this Swap to Stop support in the community in Wolverhampton. If you want to quit, please sign up today.”

    For more help and support to stop smoking, please visit Quit Smoking.

    Meanwhile, the council announced last week that a new healthy lifestyles service, Live Well Wolverhampton, is being launched, offering people information, advice, guidance, self help tools and lifestyle interventions to enable them to make and maintain positive lifestyle choices.

    Initially, the service is being trialled on a small scale, providing support to help people quit smoking, while an adult weight management scheme is also expected to be launched in the near future. It will strengthen the existing support available in Wolverhampton and will be accessible to all those who live or are registered with a GP in the city. More information about Live Well Wolverhampton will be provided once the service is launched city wide.

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Care and health careers fair hailed a huge success 24 September 2024 Care and health careers fair hailed a huge success

    Source: Aisle of Wight

    More than 580 people descended on the Lord Louis Library in Newport last week to find out more about career opportunities within the Island’s care and health sector.

    Organised by the Isle of Wight Council, the event showcased the wide range of jobs, career paths and apprenticeships available on the Island to make a real difference to people’s lives.

    The day also provided an opportunity for those interested in a rewarding career in care and health to talk to staff to find out what skills are needed to get into these vital roles.

    Among the organisations in attendance were Mountbatten, the Isle of Wight NHS Trust, Alzheimer Cafe, Practice Plus Group and a host of independent care providers from around the Island, along with council teams from adult social care, children’s services and public health.

    Katy Harwood, the council’s recruitment team leader, said: “We wanted to shine a spotlight on the rewarding careers available locally.

    “We need more people to join the Island’s care and health workforce supporting Island residents when they need it most.

    “A career in care and health is so much more than people may think, so this event was a great opportunity to bring together a wide range of organisations and showcase the different types of jobs available and how valuable this work is.

    “Lots of employers had productive discussions on the day and potential hires which was great to hear.

    “As well as our sector employers, it was also good to see visitors engaging with additional support and training/learning services represented through Isle of Wight College, Adult Learning, DWP, Working Towards Wellbeing and National Careers Service.

    “I hope all involved found it a rewarding day, and that visitors left feeling inspired to pursue a career in care and health.”

    Councillor Debbie Andre, Cabinet member for adult social care and public health, added: “A career in health and social care can be incredibly rewarding and there are many different career paths that people can follow.

    “This event highlighted not only the range of employment available, but that entry can be open at any stage of life and that previous life experience can be a great advantage in enabling those supported to live their best lives through those joining the caring profession.”

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: New pilot nursery provision at d’Auvergne School23 September 2024 The Minister for Education and Lifelong Learning, Deputy Rob Ward, in conjunction with the Jersey Child Care Trust (JCCT), is opening a new nursery provision for 2–3-year-olds with additional needs,… Read more

    Source: Channel Islands – Jersey

    23 September 2024

    The Minister for Education and Lifelong Learning, Deputy Rob Ward, in conjunction with the Jersey Child Care Trust (JCCT), is opening a new nursery provision for 2–3-year-olds with additional needs, at d’Auvergne School.

    This provision is one of a number of initiatives taking place to support the Minister’s ambition to extend the nursery and childcare provision for children aged 2-3, within the Government’s Common Strategic Policy (CSP) 2024-2026.

    The nursery will open in October and is a pilot scheme; the opportunity to open more 2-3 provisions within Government primary schools is being explored.

    Deputy Ward said: “I’m delighted that we are able to offer this provision to parents and families in the coming weeks. It is the first step, and one of a number of possible options we’re looking at to achieve the universal offer for 2- to 3-year-olds.

    “I committed to these pilots when I became Minister, as part of this Government’s Common Strategic Policy, and reaching this point is the culmination of a lot of hard work.

    “I’d like to thank the Jersey Child Care Trust and the d’Auvergne leadership team for creating this new provision at such pace.”

    Headteacher of d’Auvergne, Sam Cooper said: “This marks an exciting new chapter for the school and makes clear sense to use free space in primary schools to expand our nursery provision. We’re very happy to support the pilot in any way we can and look forward to welcoming more children into our wider school community”.

    The provision will be known as ‘Play and Learn at d’Auvergne’ and will include the children’s families too, by inviting them to join in with Play and Learn sessions once a week.

    Fiona Vacher, Executive Director of JCCT said: “We know the life changing impact that a good quality, early years’ experience has on children and particularly those with developmental and financial need. Previously JCCT has been unable to fund a part-time nursery place for every child who needed it because of a lack of available nursery places.

    “When the Minister for Education approached us, we knew we had to prioritise creating ‘Play and Learn at d’Auvergne’ as we want to make sure that every child has access to the nurture, care and learning they need to thrive.”​

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: FE McWilliam Gallery presents GROUND (100+one) by Susan Connolly

    Source: Northern Ireland City of Armagh

    Artist Susan Connolly pictured at the opening of her exhibition GROUND (100+one) at the FE McWilliam Gallery

    The F.E. McWilliam Gallery and Armagh City, Banbridge and Craigavon Borough Council are delighted to present GROUND (100+one), an exhibition by Belfast based painter Susan Connolly which is now on view at the Banbridge arts venue.

    GROUND (100+one), an exciting new body of work, responds to the specific context of the F.E. McWilliam Gallery and is informed by Connolly’s research into Mainie Jellett’s groundbreaking  artwork, Decoration (1923), the first modern abstract painting exhibited in Ireland.

    Connolly pushes painting to its limits through processes that include layering, scoring, cutting and peeling paint from its support. The title GROUND refers to the one thing shared by every painting – a surface, on which to apply the pigment. (100+one) references the number of years since Jellett’s piece Decoration was first exhibited in Ireland and also the one hundred paintings and collages that Connolly set herself the task of producing for this exhibition.

    Jellett’s approach to painting was shaped by the time that she spent in Paris studying and collaborating with the Cubist artist Albert Gleizes. Decoration provoked confusion and hostility when it was first exhibited in Dublin in 1923. Connolly’s interest in Jellett is both as a pioneer and an abstract painter who challenged preconceptions of painting.

    Curator of the FE McWilliam Gallery, Dr Riann Coulter said; “Susan is one of our most innovative painters and her engagement with Mainie Jellett’s iconic piece, Decoration, which now hangs in the National Gallery of Ireland, has produced a fascinating body of work that is both a homage to Jellett and a contemporary continuation of her efforts to expand definitions of painting.”

    Originally from Kildare, Susan is now based between Belfast and Waterford where she is a lecturer and Course Leader in the Visual Art Department of South East Technological University. She studied at Limerick College of Art and Design, the National College of Art and Design, Dublin and Belfast School of Art where she was awarded an MFA and PhD. Susan is a member of Queen Street Studios and her work is in public and private collections throughout Ireland including the Arts Council of Ireland the Office of Public Works.

    The exhibition is accompanied by a limited-edition art book designed by Alex Synge with texts by Sarah Long, Craig Staff and Riann Coulter.

    GROUND (100+one) continues at the FE McWilliam Gallery until 2 November 2024. For further information including opening times go to FE McWilliam Gallery

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Consultation begins on proposed licensing scheme for private sector rented housing

    Source: City of Leeds

    People in Leeds are being encouraged to have their say on the possible introduction of a new regulatory licensing scheme for private sector rented housing.

    Leeds City Council began operating a system known as ‘selective licensing’ in Beeston and Harehills in 2020 with the aim of driving up the standard of privately-rented homes and boosting wider efforts to tackle social and health inequalities in the two communities.

    Positive results have been achieved but – under the terms of the Housing Act 2004 – selective licensing schemes in England can only run for a period of five years.

    The council is therefore now considering plans for a new and expanded scheme that would again include much of Beeston and Harehills but would also take in parts of Armley, Holbeck, Cross Green and East End Park.

    All private landlords – with certain limited exceptions – would be required by law to obtain a licence for any residential property they are seeking to let in the designated area.

    The licence conditions would include ensuring the safe working of gas or electric appliances, providing smoke alarms and carbon monoxide detectors and keeping the property in a decent state of repair, both inside and out.

    A public consultation on the proposed scheme was launched yesterday (Monday, September 23), with the council keen to gather a wide cross-section of views before it decides whether to press ahead with its plans.

    And interested parties across the city – including landlords, tenants and other stakeholders – are being urged to take the opportunity to share their thoughts between now and the end of the consultation period on December 13.

    Councillor Jess Lennox, Leeds City Council’s executive member for housing, said:

    “Privately rented properties are a key source of housing in Leeds and it’s vitally important that they are safe, warm and well managed places to live.

    “We want to explore options for protecting and improving the quality of every type of home in our city, with the newly-launched consultation on selective licensing forming part of that work.

    “I would encourage as many people as possible to let us know their views over the course of the next few months.”

    More than 4,500 inspections and other visits have been conducted at properties in Beeston and Harehills under their existing schemes, which both come to an end next year.

    Landlords have had to carry out improvement work on more than 1,500 homes where issues were identified during these checks.

    The visits have also given council officers increased opportunities to identify situations where tenants are facing non-housing related problems, with more than 1,700 referrals being made to partner agencies for support with health, financial and other challenges.

    The areas provisionally earmarked for the new scheme all sit within the Armley, Beeston & Holbeck, Burmantofts & Richmond Hill, Gipton & Harehills and Hunslet & Riverside council wards.

    These wards have higher levels of deprivation than the city as a whole and an above-average concentration of private rented housing.

    A decision on whether to bring in the new Selective Licensing in East, South & West Leeds scheme is expected in the first half of 2025.

    To learn more about the consultation and how to submit feedback, click here. Further information can also be obtained by e-mailing ESWselective.licensing@leeds.gov.uk or ringing 0113 378 2899.

    ENDS

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Maksim Liksutov: the first carriages of the latest Russian train “White Gyrfalcon” (Bely Krechet) will depart for Saint Petersburg on the HSR by 2028

    Source: Moscow Metro

    Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin presented a model of the latest domestic train “White Gyrfalcon” (Bely Krechet) for the high-speed rail line Moscow — Saint Petersburg, a project initiated by Russian President Vladimir Putin, at the “Manezh Station: Moscow Transport 2030” exhibition. The train will reach speeds of up to 400 km/h.

    Latest domestic train “White Gyrfalcon”. Moscow Metro.

    During the presentation at Manezh, an agreement was signed for the delivery of 41 Russian trains for the high-speed rail line HSR-1 “Moscow – Tver – Veliky Novgorod – Saint Petersburg.”

    The ceremony saw attendance from Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Vitaly Saveliev, Deputy Transport Minister Alexey Shilo, Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Transport Maksim Liksutov, General Director of Russian Railways JSC (RZD) Oleg Belozerov, First Deputy Chairman of the Board of Sberbank Alexander Vedyakhin, General Director of HSR Two Capitals LLC Oleg Toni, General Director of GTLK JSC Evgeny Ditrikh, General Director of Sinara Group JSC Viktor Lesh, and Anatoly Gavrilenko, General Director of Leader CJSC – the company organizing the financing for the project through non-state pension funds.

    Inside the latest domestic train “White Gyrfalcon”. Moscow Metro.

    The innovative Russian rolling stock meets the highest safety and comfort standards. All key components are manufactured in Russia, with assembly and commissioning taking place at the Ural Locomotives plant in Sverdlovsk Oblast.

    According to Deputy Mayor of Moscow for Transport Maksim Liksutov, the domestic trains are both safe and comfortable. Each train consists of 8 carriages with several service classes. The train ride to Saint Petersburg will be nearly twice as fast as the Sapsan, taking only 2 hours and 15 minutes. The first carriages will depart for Saint Petersburg in 2028.

    Travel time between Moscow and Tver will be 39 minutes, between Saint Petersburg and Veliky Novgorod — 29 minutes. From Zelenograd to central Moscow, the journey will take just 14 minutes.

    The latest domestic train “White Gyrfalcon”. Moscow Metro.

    “On behalf of Moscow Mayor Sergey Sobyanin, we have presented a unique transportation exhibit at the Manezh Central Exhibition Hall. A part of the exhibition is dedicated to President Vladimir Putin’s project — HSR-1. The first carriages of the latest ‘White Gyrfalcon’ train will depart for Saint Petersburg on the HSR in 2028. The main design solutions for creating Russia’s first high-speed train HSR-1 were developed in Moscow. Some components for the high-speed trains will be produced by Moscow enterprises. The lifespan of the trains is 30 years, during which the manufacturer will be responsible under a life cycle contract,” said Maksim Liksutov.

    Along with the HSR train model, visitors at Manezh Square can see the newest “Ivolga 4.0” trains, the “Moscow-2024” metro carriage, and the updated “Kamaz” electric bus. The internal exhibition features a multimedia HSR train where visitors can take a virtual journey along the high-speed rail route and explore the landmarks of the cities along the way.

    The “Manezh Station: Moscow Transport 2030” exhibition, where the model is featured, is part of the forum-festival “Future Territory: Moscow 2030” and has become the most visited in Manezh’s history. Admission is free, and the exhibition runs until September 8 at the Manezh Central Exhibition Hall.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Paid Inactivity – PayPal Introduces Fees on Inactive Accounts of Russians

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Mainfin Bank –

    When will PayPal charge users a fee?

    PayPal’s updated user agreement will go into effect on October 7th – the platform will charge fees to inactive accounts according to the following terms:

    there have been no withdrawal transactions on the wallet in the last year; the account balance is positive – the amount and currency do not matter; the commission will be 3.5 thousand rubles per year or the total balance, if the amount on the balance is less; the commission will be withheld for the extension of service; if the user does not agree with the updated terms, the wallet must be closed before October 7.

    Inactive clients of the platform, from whom a commission will be withheld, also include persons who have not entered their profile for a year – the new rules will affect not only Russians, but also users from other countries.

    Why did PayPal suspend work with Russian clients?

    PayPal’s departure from the Russian Federation became known in early March 2022 – then, against the backdrop of the beginning of the Cold War and the sanctions imposed by the United States, the company suspended operations in the country, promising users time to withdraw funds. Now, registration of new clients from Russia is unavailable on the platform, and services for receiving and sending payments are closed for compatriots.

    “The departure of PayPal from Russia was a blow to freelancers and small businesses working with foreign partners. Russians also lost the ability to pay for purchases in a number of foreign stores, such as Steam and PS Store,” the expert noted.

    Although PayPal promised Russians the ability to withdraw funds from wallets, access to the payment system’s website was closed immediately after the announcement of its withdrawal from the country – no instructions on how to withdraw money from the balance were provided either. The service continues to operate in more than 200 countries around the world, serving over 300 million active clients.

    12:00 09/24/2024

    Source:

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://mainfin.ru/news/paid-inactivity-paypal-introduces-commissions-on-inactive-accounts-of-Russians

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Treats, performances and sports games: how the festival “Summer in Moscow. Everyone out on the street!” went

    MIL OSI Translation. Region: Russian Federation –

    Source: Moscow Government – Government of Moscow –

    In the capital ended festival “Summer in Moscow. Everyone out on the street!”. 600 entertainment venues were organized for city residents and tourists, including at the festival sites of “Moscow Seasons”. Visitors bought 35 thousand portions of various treats and 16 thousand liters of soft drinks. During the festival, souvenir shops and shopping chalets sold about 11 thousand memorable gifts, jewelry and decorative items. This was reported by the capital’s Department of Trade and Services.

    Guests especially loved craft chocolate, hand-made ice cream and pine cone jam. At each site, you could try meat and fish dishes cooked on the grill, and national culinary delicacies from vendors from all over the country.

    From the world of gadgets to reality

    In the summer, Muscovites attended concerts and theatrical performances by groups from all over Russia. Thousands of master classes were held at the venues of the festival “Summer in Moscow. Everyone out on the street!”, where adults and children made home decor, toys, jewelry and fashion accessories, as well as culinary masterpieces with the help of experienced chefs. Young guests attended programming, English and archeology classes, and drawing lessons with professional teachers. Plein airs were very popular.

    More than 20 Moscow Seasons venues hosted fun starts, sports and board games, training sessions, as well as dance lessons, Zumba, yoga and stretching classes. In addition, Muscovites took part in transformation games that helped them return from the world of gadgets to reality, understand their goals and find ways to achieve them.

    Dancing to the gramophone and games from childhood

    At the creative evenings, visitors listened to poems and songs, discussed the works of classics, legendary plays and books, watched performances by contemporary artists. Lectures and creative classes with representatives of the fashion industry, writers and theater community were held at the Moscow Seasons venues.

    On Nikitsky Boulevard, an open-air exhibition and art market were held for 100 days. An exhibition of paintings by young artists from the Moscow Exhibition Halls association was organized for city residents and tourists, and master classes on painting techniques and handicrafts were held.

    The guests of the festival remembered the “Summer in Moscow. Everyone out on the street!” theme nights with gramophone music at the vintage market on Chistye Prudy, as well as the championship of the childhood game “Rock, Paper, Scissors”, in which residents of all Moscow districts took part.

    More information about the activities of the Department of Trade and Services is available in the official telegram channel.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    Please note; This information is raw content directly from the information source. It is accurate to what the source is stating and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    http://vvv.mos.ru/nevs/item/144354073/

    EDITOR’S NOTE: This article is a translation. Apologies should the grammar and or sentence structure not be perfect.

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Completes Seventh Review Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement for Suriname

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 18, 2024

    • The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund completed the seventh review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Suriname, allowing for an immediate purchase equivalent to SDR 46.7 million (about USD 63 million) of which SDR 19.1 million or about USD 25.8 million would be for budget support.
    • The authorities’ commitment to maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies and implementing difficult reforms are yielding positive results: the economy is growing, inflation is coming down, international bond spreads are at record lows, and investor confidence is returning.
    • Building on the progress made thus far under the program, the authorities should entrench fiscal discipline, particularly in the run up to the elections while protecting the poor and vulnerable. Persevering with structural reforms to strengthen institutions and address governance weaknesses is also critical.

    Washington, DC: The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the seventh review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement for Suriname. The completion of the review allows the authorities to draw the equivalent of SDR 46.7 million (about USD 63 million), bringing total program disbursement to SDR 337.1 million (about USD 455 million). In completing the review, the Executive Board approved the authorities’ request for a waiver of non-observance of the end-June 2024 performance criteria on the central government primary balance based on the corrective actions the authorities have already taken.

    Suriname is implementing an ambitious economic reform agenda to restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability, while laying the foundations for strong and more inclusive growth. The program includes policies to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, protect the poor and vulnerable, upgrade the monetary and exchange rate policy framework, address banking sector vulnerabilities, and advance the anti-corruption and governance reform agenda. These policies are supported by the EFF arrangement, which was approved by the Executive Board on December 22, 2021 (see Press Release No. 21/400), in an amount equivalent to SDR 472.8 million (366.8 percent of quota).

    Following the Executive Board discussion on Suriname, Mr. Kenji Okamura, Deputy Managing Director, and Acting Chair, issued the following statement:

    “The authorities’ reforms under the EFF-supported program are being increasingly reflected in macroeconomic stability and improving investor confidence. The economy is growing, inflation is declining, international bond spreads have reached historic lows, and donor support is increasing.

    “The near-term priority is to reinforce the planned fiscal consolidation and protect the vulnerable from the burden of the adjustment. Phasing out electricity subsidies and strengthening tax administration will help create fiscal space for higher social assistance and infrastructure spending. Fully implementing the recently finalized social assistance reform plan will make social programs more efficient and effective. Strengthening commitment controls and addressing weaknesses in cash management will contain public spending and prevent accumulation of supplier arrears. 

    “The debt restructuring process is nearing completion. Bilateral agreements with all official creditors and most commercial creditors have been achieved. Domestic debt arrears have been cleared. 

    “A tight monetary policy is supporting disinflation. Implementing the recently-finalized plan for central bank recapitalization will strengthen the central bank’s operational and financial autonomy. The authorities’ demonstrated commitment to a flexible, market-determined exchange rate is supporting international reserve accumulation. Timely implementation of recapitalization plans for commercial banks that do not meet regulatory capital requirements will bolster financial sector resilience.

    “The authorities should persevere with their ambitious structural reform agenda to strengthen institutions, address governance weaknesses, build climate resilience, and improve data quality. This important work will continue to be supported by capacity development from the Fund and other development partners.”

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Meera Louis

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/18/pr-24334-suriname-imf-completes-seventh-review-under-the-eff-arrangement

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Navigating Through Financial Turbulences with Preparedness, Competence, and Confidence

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    OeNB | SUERF | Joint Vienna Institute | Yale Program on Financial Stability Conference on Building Resilience and Managing Financial Crises
    Vienna, Austria
    Tobias Adrian, IMF Financial Counsellor and Director of the Monetary and Capital Markets Department

    September 18, 2024

    It is a great pleasure to speak to you today on a policy area at the forefront of our work at the IMF in helping our members prepare for, and deal with, financial instability. I will provide a snapshot of the progress that has been made and what remains to be done to deal effectively with bank runs and bank failures. I will also explain what we are doing at the IMF to help our membership make further progress in this critical area.

    The bank failures in 2023 in the US and Switzerland presented the most significant test since the global financial crisis of the reforms taken collectively to end “too-big-to-fail.” It’s not often that policymakers get to field test plans for dealing with failing systemic banks, let alone one for a global systemically important bank (G-SIB).

    In our view, the failures of Credit Suisse in Switzerland and SVB, Signature, and First Republic in the US, showed that while significant progress has been made, further progress is still required to deliver on the too-big-to-fail reform agenda and reduce the risk that taxpayers bail out shareholders and creditors when banks fail.

    On the one hand, the actions the authorities took last year successfully avoided deeper financial turmoil. In addition, unlike many of the failures during the global financial crisis, significant losses were shared with the shareholders and some creditors of the failed banks. However, taxpayers were once again on the hook as extensive public support was used to protect more than just the insured depositors of failed banks.

    In Switzerland, amid a massive creditor run, the Credit Suisse acquisition was backed by a government guarantee and liquidity facilities nearly equal to a quarter of Swiss economic output. While the public support was ultimately recovered, it entailed very significant contingent fiscal risk, and created a larger, more systemic bank. Indeed, UBS now has the largest ratio of assets to home country GDP of any individual G-SIB.

    The use of standing resolution powers to transfer ownership of Credit Suisse, after bailing in shareholders and creditors, rather than relying on emergency legislation to effect a merger, would have fully wiped out the equity of Credit Suisse shareholders and limited the need for public support.

    What lessons have we learnt?

    Domestic and international authorities have published extensively on the lessons learnt and we share many of the conclusions. The key points I would highlight include:

    The importance of intrusive supervision and early intervention. Credit Suisse depositors lost confidence after prolonged governance and risk management failures. The banks which failed in the US pursued risky business strategies and very rapid growth with inadequate risk management. Supervisors in both jurisdictions should have acted faster and been more assertive and conclusive. Policymakers need to empower supervisors with both the ability and the will to act.

    Even relatively small banks can prove systemic. A lesson from many past crises, including the US bank failures in 2023, is that you can’t always judge in advance which banking problems will become systemic. In many countries, including the US and Switzerland, we think authorities should do more to be ready for crises affecting their medium-sized banks. Banking supervisory and resolution authorities should ensure that sufficient recovery and resolution planning takes place across the banking sector as a whole. This should include, on a proportional basis, banks that may not be systemic in all circumstances, but that could certainly be systemic in some.

    Central banks should be prepared to provide extensive liquidity support during a crisis. Banks should be familiar with the central bank’s operations and facilities and be ready to use them at short notice. Who can access central bank lending is also an important question as liquidity risks have partially moved away from the usual central bank counterparties. While widening the counterparty list could help central banks intervene more broadly in a crisis, it runs the risk of rewarding regulatory arbitrage, giving raise to difficult trade-offs and requiring careful assessment. Central banks may well have to lend against illiquid collateral in a crisis. In that context, prepositioning would help to ensure operational preparedness especially to ascertain the legal claim on the collateral and to calibrate appropriate haircuts. An open question is whether the prepositioning should be voluntary or required, and how much counterparties should preposition if required. The benefits of enhanced lending “fire power” would have to be compared with the cost that prepositioning entails for the banks and the costs to the central bank, including risks to its balance sheet. If propositioning is directly linked with risk (e.g., a percentage of uninsured deposit), the impact on intermediation and the interaction with other prudential regulation would need to be carefully assessed.

    Resolution plans and regimes need sufficient flexibility. We very much support the conclusion of the Financial Stability Board’s lessons learned report that resolution authorities need to “better operationalize a range of resolution options for different circumstances.” Every bank failure presents different challenges and resolution authorities need to be flexible enough to deal with the actual crisis that presents itself, balancing risks to financial stability with those to taxpayers. Authorities should make sure that they carefully balance rules versus discretion and detailed planning versus optionality in designing their resolution regimes. The rapid sale of Credit Suisse should prompt us to think about what would be needed for the successful sale in resolution of even the largest banking groups, at least in some circumstances.

    Strikingly, every one of the cases I mentioned from Spring 2023, involved the transfer of the failing bank’s business lines to an acquiring bank, even where this had not been the focus of prior resolution planning. Two of the US cases also involved the intermediate step of transfer to bridge banks. So, we have timely and high-profile reminders that transfer powers should be a core part of the resolution toolkit and should be duly planned for and readily implementable, including at short notice.

    Cooperation and effective implementation of resolution powers across borders is imperative. One notable feature of last year’s bank failures was the degree of international cooperation between regulators and resolution authorities in their handling of these cases. The Swiss authorities worked intensively with international counterparts to prepare for a resolution of Credit Suisse, which would have needed supportive actions from the supervisors and resolution authorities responsible for Credit Suisse’s main foreign operations, including in the US, UK, and EU. SVB’s UK subsidiary was resolved by the Bank of England, ultimately being sold to HSBC, and the FSB report highlights that the UK relied on the deep relationships built over the years with their US counterparts to help implement this. This cooperation seems to have begun earlier and worked a lot better than in similar cases during the global financial crisis, such as the failure of Lehman Brothers.

    That experience highlights how global financial stability depends on authorities being able to work together across borders and to build in peacetime the routine contacts and good understanding ex ante of what each authority would be likely to do to make that possible. However, there was a wrinkle in this otherwise positive experience, as highlighted in the Financial Stability Board’s report on the bank failures, which relates to the importance of the US securities markets to most major foreign banks. Credit Suisse and most other major banks have debt securities issued in US dollars and/or under New York law, the holders of which may incur losses in a resolution. As a recent report of the Financial Stability Board highlighted, there remain significant open questions about how disclosure and other US securities legal requirements would be applied in the circumstances where securities issued in the US are envisaged to be converted in a short period, for example, over a resolution weekend. This is an important issue where further work is needed and this is being taken forward by the Financial Stability Board, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and others.

    Finally, effective deposit insurance regimes are crucial. Banks typically fail when creditors lose confidence, even before their balance sheet reflects potential losses. Authorities in many countries need to strengthen deposit insurance regimes. New technology like 24/7 payments, mobile banking, and social media have accelerated deposit runs. Last year’s failures followed rapid deposit withdrawals, and deposit insurers and other authorities should be ready and able to act more quickly than many currently can.

    IMF staff are working actively to support efforts in member countries to strengthen their supervision, resolution, liquidity assistance, and deposit insurance frameworks including through FSAPs and technical assistance. In the US, we have seen lessons learned reports and policy proposals from many of the US banking authorities, several of which pick up on issues and recommendations that were discussed in the IMF’s assessment of the US financial sector (“FSAP”) in 2020. Our next FSAPs for Switzerland and the Euro Area will be published next year, and as we start work on that we will be taking a close look at the authorities’ and the FSB’s findings and will likely reiterate many of our previous findings, including on strengthening deposit insurance regimes. We are also contributing to policy formulation at the international level, including a recently announced review of the international deposit insurance standard, and by earlier this year hosting with the Financial Stability Board a workshop for policymakers on the use of transfer powers in resolution.

    The bottom line is that progress has been made, but there is still further to go in putting an end to too-big-to-fail. Most of the areas where further progress is needed are already well known; last year’s bank failures should provide the impetus for policymakers to cover the remaining ground.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER:

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/16/sp091824-navigating-through-financial-turbulences-with-preparedness-competence-and-confidence

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Moscow Metro Embraces Innovation: QR Code Payment Now Available at Turnstiles

    Source: Moscow Metro

    Moscow’s transportation system is taking a leap forward with the launch of QR code payment via the Faster Payment’s System (FPS) at Metro and Moscow Central Circle (MCC) turnstiles. This innovative service, powered by the Bank of Russia, is also being implemented at 1,700 ticket vending machines across the city.

    Moscow Metro QR code-ready.

    The FPS is already integrated into all regular river transport turnstiles and ground transport validators. This is a convenient and modern service. Now, this innovative payment method is available at ticket booths and vending machines, – said Maksim Liksutov, Moscow’s Deputy Mayor for Transport and Industry.

    To utilize QR code payment, passengers need to generate a QR code in the Moscow Metro app and hold their smartphone screen up to the scanner at the turnstile. The phone should be held 20-25 cm away from the scanner, at a 45-degree angle, with the active QR code facing the scanner. A green signal will appear on the turnstile when the payment is successful.

    Additionally, passengers registered in the mobile app and loyalty program are eligible for a special promotion. They will receive cashback for each payment made through the FPS, credited to their account within one minute.

    This new payment option offers Moscow residents a convenient, modern, and secure way to pay for their transportation needs.

    The FPS was first launched in June 2023 in the ticket offices of all open stations of the Big Circle Line (BCL).

    The Moscow Transport news channel https://t.me/DTRoadEn            

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2024 Article IV Consultation with Bhutan

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    September 19, 2024

    Washington, DC: On September 9, 2024, the Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the Article IV consultation with Bhutan[1].

    During the past decade Bhutan adeptly balanced economic growth and poverty reduction with environmental sustainability. Sustained growth increased incomes, lifting living conditions and eliminating extreme monetary poverty by 2022. Bhutan has a long history of leading environmental conservation and climate change action and is committed to remaining carbon neutral. While the pandemic hindered economic development, strong policies limited its health impact.

    Growth remained subdued during 2023. Large-scale emigration and policies to curb imports hindered a more robust recovery. Inflation accelerated in the second half of 2023, driven by wage increases in the public sector. The current account deficit (CAD) widened to around 30 percent of GDP driven by a large investment in crypto assets mining and the slow recovery in tourism. The fiscal deficit narrowed but remained high and non-hydro debt nearly doubled from pre-pandemic levels.

    Boosted by hydro-power projects and grant-financed capital investment, growth is projected to accelerate over the medium term, averaging 6.3 percent of GDP, but to remain volatile. A gradual easing of inflation towards 4 percent is expected as the impact of wage increase subside. The CAD is expected to narrow, supported by higher electricity exports due to the commissioning of new hydropower plants, a continued recovery in tourism, and crypto assets exports. Securing diverse sources of growth that provide quality employment opportunities while preserving Bhutan’s commitment to environmental sustainability remains a key medium‑term challenge.

    Uncertainty remains elevated with the balance of risks tilted to the downside. Domestic risks include slippages on implementation of the goods and services tax, delays in hydropower projects, and fiscal risks from the materialization of contingent liabilities in the financial sector. External risks include volatile commodity prices—particularly of fuel—and a global slowdown that could hinder non-hydro exports. Bhutan is vulnerable to climate change, given the importance of hydroelectricity and agriculture. Crypto mining entails significant upside and downside risks given their price volatility. Overall, the large external debt and persistent CADs—while supporting growth-enhancing investments and financed by development partners—are nonetheless a source of vulnerability. On the upside, the pursuit of stronger‑than-envisaged fiscal consolidation would accelerate the pace at which fiscal and external buffers are rebuilt.

    Executive Board Assessment[2]

    Executive Directors agreed with the thrust of the staff appraisal. They commended Bhutan’s significant reduction in poverty and inequality during the last decade. Directors welcomed that growth is expected to accelerate over the medium term, boosted by a large hydroproject, higher capital spending, and the slowdown of emigration. Noting downside risks to the outlook, they underscored that tighter fiscal and monetary policies are needed to support the peg, reduce domestic and external imbalances, and rebuild buffers; while carefully managing potential risks stemming from crypto assets operations is also needed. Directors called for structural reforms to foster high-quality jobs in the private sector and diversify the economy, and commended the authorities’ commitment to ecological conservation and climate change action. They noted that continued support from the Fund’s capacity development is important.

    Directors stressed that a gradual and sustained fiscal consolidation, based on revenue mobilization and spending restraint, is essential to rebuild buffers and preserve debt sustainability. They welcomed the authorities’ commitment to a timely implementation of the Goods and Services Tax and to undertaking additional tax and revenue administration measures to achieve the planned fiscal consolidation. Directors recommended strengthening public financial management, public investment management, and domestic debt management.

    Directors underscored that monetary policy needs to be tightened in tandem with fiscal policy to ease balance-of-payment pressures and rebuild reserves. They stressed the need for a well-functioning domestic liquidity management framework to support the monetary policy operation function. Directors encouraged the authorities to phase out existing exchange restrictions once conditions allow. They noted the need to address remaining financial sector vulnerabilities, particularly given the expiration of COVID-related support measures. In this context, they welcomed the new guidelines and regulations to address credit quality and the progress in moving toward risk-based supervision. Directors recommended further enhancing the AML/CFT framework. 

    Directors called for structural reforms to diversify the economy and foster the creation of private sector jobs for high-skilled workers. They recommended improving the business environment, strengthening human capital accumulation, and improving active labor market policies. Directors welcomed efforts toward a new FDI policy, which relaxes some restrictions, including access to foreign currency, local employment requirements, and caps on foreign ownership. They also welcomed the improvements in data quality and called for further progress in this area.

    Directors stressed the need to further strengthen public sector governance, including the Royal Monetary Authority’s (RMA) governance framework and independence as well as the transparency in the operations of state-owned enterprises. Noting the need to mitigate the potential risks stemming from crypto asset operations, they welcomed RMA’s efforts to strengthen its reserve management strategy and the forthcoming audited financial statements of crypto-mining operations.

    Bhutan: Selected Economic Indicators, 2018/19-2028/29

    2018/19

    2019/20

    2020/21

    2021/22

    2022/23

    2023/24

    2024/25

    2025/26

    2026/27

    2027/28

    2028/29

    Act.

    Act.

    Act.

    Act.

    		  

    Projections
                       

     

    (In percent of GDP, unless otherwise indicated)

    National Accounts

    		                

    Nominal GDP (in millions of ngultrums) 1/

    184,660

    187,378

    193,386

    216,239

    		  

    237,322

    261,026

    292,837

    325,812

    357,677

    393,607

    438,906

    Real GDP growth (percent change) 1/

    4.6

    -2.5

    -3.3

    4.8

    		  

    5.0

    5.2

    7.2

    6.4

    5.2

    5.6

    7.2

     

    Prices

    Consumer prices (EoP; percent change)

    2.8

    4.5

    7.4

    6.5

    3.9

    4.8

    4.7

    4.4

    4.0

    4.0

    4.0

    Consumer prices (avg; percent change)

    2.8

    3.0

    8.2

    5.9

    4.6

    4.6

    4.7

    4.5

    4.2

    4.0

    4.0

    GDP deflator (percent change)

    2.2

    4.0

    6.7

    6.7

    4.5

    4.6

    4.6

    4.6

    4.4

    4.2

    4.1

     

    General Government Accounts

    Total revenue and grants

    22.8

    29.1

    30.9

    25.1

    24.2

    24.2

    28.1

    31.5

    30.1

    28.2

    27.3

    Domestic revenue

    18.8

    19.3

    18.5

    18.1

    18.9

    20.3

    19.3

    20.7

    20.7

    20.8

    22.4

    Tax revenue

    14.7

    12.2

    10.7

    12.0

    13.3

    13.4

    14.0

    14.4

    14.8

    14.8

    15.2

    Non-tax revenue

    4.1

    7.2

    7.9

    6.1

    5.6

    6.9

    5.4

    6.3

    5.9

    6.0

    7.3

    Foreign grants

    5.5

    8.5

    7.5

    6.2

    6.0

    3.9

    8.8

    10.8

    9.4

    7.4

    4.9

    Internal and other receipts

    -1.6

    1.3

    4.9

    0.9

    -0.7

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Total expenditure 2/

    24.2

    30.9

    36.6

    32.1

    29.0

    28.8

    32.5

    34.2

    33.4

    32.1

    32.2

    Current expenditure

    15.0

    19.0

    22.5

    15.9

    14.9

    17.1

    17.0

    17.8

    18.7

    18.8

    19.4

    Capital expenditure

    8.8

    11.8

    14.3

    16.1

    14.2

    11.8

    15.5

    16.4

    14.8

    13.3

    12.8

    Primary expenditure 2/

    23.4

    30.5

    35.7

    30.6

    27.3

    27.2

    30.5

    31.4

    29.9

    28.3

    27.7

    Primary balance

    -0.6

    -1.4

    -4.8

    -5.5

    -3.1

    -3.0

    -2.4

    0.1

    0.2

    -0.1

    -0.4

    Overall balance

    -1.5

    -1.8

    -5.8

    -7.0

    -4.8

    -4.6

    -4.4

    -2.7

    -3.3

    -3.9

    -4.8

    General government debt 3/

    100

    115

    123

    117

    116

    114

    109

    123

    122

    119

    130

    Domestic

    3

    1

    9

    11

    13

    14

    15

    12

    11

    13

    13

    External

    97

    114

    114

    106

    103

    100

    94

    111

    111

    106

    117
                       

    Monetary Sector

     

    		              

    Broad money (M2) growth (percent change)

    5.6

    19.3

    24.4

    9.4

    9.8

    12.6

    13.2

    12.3

    13.0

    12.2

    11.5

    Private credit growth (percent change)

    20.5

    13.3

    6.5

    10.8

    19.3

    9.1

    11.2

    11.1

    11.5

    10.0

    10.2

    Balance of Payments

    Current account balance

    -19.2

    -14.8

    -11.2

    -28.1

    -34.4

    -17.7

    -32.1

    -20.5

    -12.5

    -17.1

    -14.1

    Goods balance

    -15.3

    -12.1

    -6.4

    -21.1

    -25.7

    -12.9

    -26.9

    -15.0

    -6.1

    -10.1

    -8.8

    Hydropower exports

    6.0

    12.1

    13.5

    11.0

    8.7

    6.3

    8.2

    9.5

    9.1

    10.4

    11.9

    Non-hydropower exports

    17.3

    13.0

    13.9

    15.8

    14.9

    15.7

    15.9

    15.8

    17.1

    18.1

    18.8

    Imports of goods

    38.6

    37.1

    33.9

    47.9

    		  

    49.2

    40.2

    55.6

    52.4

    45.6

    42.1

    42.2

    Services balance

    -1.9

    -3.5

    -4.4

    -6.5

    		  

    -6.7

    -3.7

    -2.8

    -3.6

    -3.8

    -3.6

    -3.0

    Primary balance

    -8.4

    -5.7

    -5.7

    -5.5

    -5.0

    -5.6

    -4.5

    -4.2

    -4.6

    -4.9

    -4.8

    Secondary balance

    6.5

    6.6

    5.4

    5.1

    2.9

    4.5

    2.1

    2.2

    2.0

    1.6

    2.5

    Capital account balance

    8.0

    7.1

    3.8

    3.6

    4.1

    3.1

    8.2

    9.8

    8.6

    6.6

    2.9

    Financial account balance

    -4.5

    -15.1

    -9.1

    -8.2

    -10.7

    -15.9

    -24.0

    -20.2

    -19.2

    -13.6

    -13.6

    Net errors and emissions

    10.4

    5.4

    -4.8

    1.2

    11.8

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    0.0

    Overall balance

    3.7

    12.9

    -3.0

    -15.1

    -7.8

    1.2

    0.1

    9.4

    15.3

    3.2

    2.5

    Gross official reserves (in USD millions)

    1065

    1344

    1332

    840

    574

    606

    604

    969

    1616.3

    1758.9

    1878.7

    (In months of imports)

    12.4

    17.5

    17.9

    7.6

    4.8

    5.8

    3.7

    5.7

    10.0

    10.8

    10.3

    (In months of goods and services imports)

    10.1

    14.2

    15.6

    6.6

    3.9

    4.6

    3.2

    4.8

    8.1

    8.6

    8.4
     

    Memorandum Items

    Hydropower exports growth rate 4/

    -1.2

    105.6

    15.8

    -9.4

    -13.2

    -20.7

    46.2

    30.4

    4.5

    26.1

    27.3

    Non-hydropower exports growth rate 4/

    13.7

    -24.1

    11.0

    26.8

    3.2

    16.2

    13.5

    10.7

    18.8

    16.5

    16.0

    Hydropower good imports 4/

    -15.3

    -3.5

    -21.2

    -11.6

    14.9

    50.8

    18.4

    61.1

    14.0

    3.3

    -19.1

    Non-hydropower good imports 4/

    10.3

    -2.3

    -4.3

    63.8

    12.7

    -13.0

    58.1

    1.5

    -6.1

    1.4

    15.2

    Population in million (eop)

    0.7

    0.7

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    0.8

    External financing gap in US million

    …

    …

    …

    …

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    		  

    [1] Under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. A staff team visits the country, collects economic and financial information, and discusses with officials the country’s economic developments and policies. On return to headquarters, the staff prepares a report, which forms the basis for discussion by the Executive Board.

    [2] At the conclusion of the discussion, the Managing Director, as Chairman of the Board, summarizes the

    views of Executive Directors, and this summary is transmitted to the country’s authorities. An explanation

    of any qualifiers used in summing up can be found here: http://www.IMF.org/external/np/sec/misc/qualifiers.htm.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Pemba Sherpa

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    @IMFSpokesperson

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/09/19/pr-24336-bhutan-imf-concludes-2024-article-iv-consultation

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  • MIL-OSI Germany: Invitation to bid for 6-months Bills of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM)

    Source: Deutsche Bundesbank in English

    A digital euro would be a digital form of central bank money, specifically the euro. It could be used by the general public in much the same way as cash, only in virtual form. Alongside cash, the Eurosystem would thus supply households with an additional form of central bank money that can be used quickly, easily and securely.

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