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Category: Education

  • MIL-OSI USA: Cook, The Economic Outlook and Path of Policy

    Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

    Thank you, Dr. Ripoll. It is wonderful to be here at the University of Pittsburgh. I am honored to deliver the 2025 McKay Lecture in memory of Dr. Marion McKay, who led the economics department here for more than 30 years. I am especially humbled to have this opportunity, given the many significant contributors to the field of economics who have spoken in this series, including David Autor, Claudia Goldin, Bob Lucas, and Joe Stiglitz.1

    I have been looking forward to this lecture for many months, because researching, discussing, and teaching economics have long been my favorite activities. I have been a professor for much longer than I have been a member of the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, which I joined three years ago. Today, I would like to discuss my outlook for the economy and my views on the path of monetary policy. For this speech, I will also offer recent historical context about how the economy arrived in its current position, take some time to review some concepts in economics, and, finally, discuss my approach to monetary policy at a time of increasing uncertainty.
    Over the past few years, the U.S. economy has grown at a strong pace, supported by resilient consumer spending. Currently, I see the economy as being in a solid position, though American households, businesses, and investors are reporting heightened levels of uncertainty about both the direction of government policy and the economy. For instance, the Beige Book, a Fed report that compiles anecdotal information on economic conditions gathered from around the country, had 45 mentions of “uncertainty.” That is the largest number of mentions of the word in the history of the Beige Book, up from 12 mentions a year ago. Consistent with elevated uncertainty, there are increasing signs that consumer spending and business investment are slowing. Inflation has come down considerably from its peak in 2022 but remains somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target. The labor market appears to have stabilized, and there is a rough balance between available workers and the demand for labor. The unemployment rate remains low by historical standards.
    The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed’s primary body for making monetary policy, raised interest rates sharply in 2022 and 2023 in response to elevated inflation. Then, amid progress on disinflation and a rebalancing labor market, last year my FOMC colleagues and I voted to make policy somewhat less restrictive. At our past two policy meetings, we held rates steady at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. Looking ahead, monetary policy will need to navigate the high degree of uncertainty about the economic outlook.
    Structure for PolicymakingI will discuss the elements of my economic outlook in more detail in a moment. But first let me tell you a bit about how I structure my thinking related to monetary policy and the economy. The starting point for that exercise is always the mandate given to the Federal Reserve by Congress, which has two goals: maximum employment and stable prices. Achieving those goals will result in the best economic outcomes for all Americans.
    So, when I say “maximum employment,” what do I mean? Maximum employment is the highest level of employment, or the lowest level of unemployment, the economy can sustain while maintaining a stable inflation rate. Unemployment has very painful consequences for individual workers and their families, including lower standards of living and greater incidence of poverty. In contrast, maintaining maximum employment for a sustained period results in many benefits and opportunities to families and communities that often had been left behind, including those in rural and urban communities and those with lower levels of education.
    More broadly, having ample job opportunities typically results in a larger and more prosperous economy. It allows workers, a vital resource in the economy, to be deployed most productively. Maximizing employment promotes business investment and the economy’s long-run growth potential. When people can enter the labor force and move to better and more productive positions, it fosters the development of more and better ideas and innovation.
    How about “stable prices?” Like former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, I consider prices to be stable when shoppers and businesses do not have to worry about costs significantly rising or falling when making plans, such as whether to take out a loan or make an investment.2 Since 2012, the Fed has been explicit about the rate of inflation that constitutes price stability. An inflation rate of 2 percent over the longer run is most consistent with the Fed’s price-stability mandate. Price stability means avoiding prolonged periods of high inflation. We know that high inflation is particularly difficult on those who are least able to bear it. Moreover, high inflation may require a forceful monetary policy response, which can lead to bouts of higher unemployment. In contrast, price stability creates the conditions for a sustainable labor market.
    Economic Developments in the Pandemic PeriodWith the backdrop of the Fed’s dual-mandate goals, I would like to discuss the extraordinary developments that have occurred over the past five years, since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Reviewing that recent history is important context for understanding the current state of monetary policy. Before reviewing the data, it is important to recognize the tragic human suffering and loss of life the pandemic caused. That loss can never be fully described in numbers and charts. For today’s discussion, I will describe the economic implications, which were profound and will likely be studied for decades.
    When the global pandemic took hold in the spring of 2020, economies around the world shut down or sharply limited activity. This was especially true for in-person services, such as travel, dining out at restaurants, and trips to the barber shop or hair salon. I would like to turn your attention to the screen, where I will display some charts to better illustrate economic developments. In figure 1, you can see the sharp downturn in economic growth, followed by the subsequent recovery. At this time, it also became apparent that the economic effects of shutdowns in one part of the world were exacerbated by constrained supplies from other parts of the world. Global policymakers faced the common challenge of supporting incomes and limiting the negative effects of shutdowns, which, mercifully, were temporary. The initial policy response was largely uniform across developed economies. This generally included fiscal support from governments, particularly to help those most in need, although the magnitude differed across countries. Central banks set monetary policy with the aim to prevent a sharp financial and economic deterioration. Later, central banks extended accommodative policy to support the economic recovery. The Federal Reserve, specifically, cut its policy rate in the spring of 2020 to near zero and bought assets to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and to foster accommodative financial conditions. Establishing a low interest rate is intended to support spending and investment.
    At the onset of the pandemic, a very deep but short contraction of economic activity occurred. Millions of Americans lost their jobs, tens of thousands of school districts sent students and teachers home, factories closed because of outbreaks, and the supply of many goods was disrupted. People also adjusted consumption patterns, rotating toward purchases of goods. Americans who canceled vacation plans and gym memberships sought to buy televisions, exercise equipment, and other goods. Demand for goods rose rapidly, but supply chains were unable to adjust at the same speed. This contributed to a global surge in inflation. That surge was followed by a further upswing in prices after February 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused a shock to global supplies of commodities, including food and energy.
    At the start of 2022, inflation topped 6 percent, and by the middle of that year it reached a peak above 7 percent.3 With inflation unacceptably high, Fed policymakers turned toward tightening. Take a look at figure 2. You can see that from March 2022 to July 2023, the Fed raised its policy rate 5‑1/4 percentage points. Those higher interest rates helped restrain aggregate demand, and the forceful response helped keep long-term inflation expectations well anchored.
    The Fed’s policy actions occurred alongside increases in aggregate supply. Global trade flows recovered from disruptions, and the availability of manufacturing inputs returned to pre-pandemic levels. U.S. labor supply recovered significantly in 2022 and 2023, boosted by rebounds in labor force participation and immigration. Figure 3 shows the rebound in labor force participation. Notice that workers aged 25 to 54, the dark orange line, led that gain. In response to rising rents, construction of multifamily housing picked up, helping counter shortages of available homes in some areas. The combination of increased supply and policy restraint contributed to a significant slowing of inflation. Notably, inflation came down without a painful increase in unemployment. This was a historically unusual, but most welcome, result.
    Productivity GainsIn addition to increased supply and policy restraint, another factor allowed the U.S. economy to grow in recent years as inflation abated—a resurgence in productivity growth. Let’s look at figure 4. Data through the end of last year indicate that labor productivity has grown at a 2 percent annual rate since the end of 2019, surpassing its 1.5 percent growth rate over the previous 12 years. As a result, the level of productivity, the blue line, has been higher than expected given the pre-pandemic trend, the dashed orange line.
    Several forces likely supported productivity in recent years. New business formation in the U.S. has risen since the start of the pandemic. These newer firms are more likely to innovate and adopt new technologies and business processes, and this, in turn, can support productivity gains. As the economy reopened after pandemic shutdowns, workers took new jobs and moved to new locations, and the pace of job switching remained elevated for some time. That reallocation may have resulted in better and more productive matches between the skills of workers and their jobs, thus raising labor productivity.4 Labor shortages during the pandemic recovery also spurred businesses to invest in labor-saving technologies and to improve efficiency, which may have supplied at least a one-time boost to productivity.
    Looking ahead, investment in new technologies may continue to support productivity growth. Much of this investment has gone toward artificial intelligence (AI). As I have discussed in previous speeches, I see AI, and generative AI in particular, as likely to become a general purpose technology, similar to the printing press and computer, that will spread throughout the economy and spark downstream innovation as well as continue to improve over time.5 It holds the promise to increase the pace of idea generation, and each newly discovered idea could itself provide an incremental boost to productivity. In the longer run, I am optimistic about the potential for gains in total factor productivity growth from the growing integration of AI into business processes throughout the economy.
    Economic OutlookNow that I have reviewed the path of the economy over the past five years, I would like to present my near-term outlook for the economy in more detail. In the past year, overall economic activity and the labor market have been solid, while inflation has run somewhat above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target.
    InflationI will start with inflation, which you can see in figure 5. The most recent data show that inflation was 2.5 percent for the 12 months ending in February, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, shown in blue. This is a marked shift down from the peak of 7.2 percent in June 2022. The dark orange line shows that core PCE prices—which exclude the volatile food and energy categories—increased 2.8 percent in February, down from a peak of 5.6 percent in February 2022. Economists pay careful attention to core prices, as they are typically a better indicator of underlying inflation and the path of future inflation.
    While the progress since 2022 has been notable, the decline in inflation over the past year has been slow and uneven. Prices for energy, including gasoline, have moderated. Food inflation has mostly stabilized over the past year, but it is still elevated for some grocery items. Let’s look at the components of core inflation in figure 6. You can see that housing services inflation, the dashed green line, remains high but has moderated steadily over the past two years, consistent with the past slowing in market rents.
    Since we are talking about housing and the cost of renting, let me say a word about the data we use at the Federal Reserve. Most of the data I have presented thus far are carefully collected, analyzed, and released by federal government agencies, like the Bureau of Economic Analysis which collects data on GDP. But we use a wide variety of sources, including series generated by the private sector. Market rents—the cost many of you pay for your apartment—is a good example. Where do you think we get information on rents? From some of the same websites you would use to find an apartment. We use high-frequency data series from sources like those as inputs into a model of rents on new leases in real time. This turns out to be helpful in the timely determination of where rents are, because they show up with a lag in official measures of inflation.
    Going back to figure 6, outside of housing, core services inflation, the dark orange line, has eased only a bit over the past year, held up by persistent inflation in restaurant meals, airline fares, and financial fees. Notably, goods prices outside of food and energy, the blue line, have increased recently after a period of decline associated with the resolution of pandemic-related supply disruptions. The recent rise in core goods prices may partly reflect sellers’ anticipation that tariff increases could raise the cost of supplies.
    Tariff increases typically result in an increase in the level of prices for the affected goods, which temporarily pushes up the overall inflation rate. But what matters for monetary policy would be a persistent boost to inflation. I am carefully watching various channels through which tariff effects could have more widespread implications for prices. Tariffs on steel and aluminum have already raised prices for those manufacturing inputs. As those cost increases work their way through the manufacturing process, they could boost prices of a range of goods over time. In the motor vehicle industry, those indirect effects, as well as direct tariffs on vehicles, could raise prices for new cars. That in turn could feed through to prices for used cars. And, as seen in recent years, higher prices for motor vehicles could, with a lag, raise costs for related services, such as rentals, insurance, and car repair.
    Inflation expectations are another channel through which tariffs could affect inflation over time. Figure 7 shows the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers inflation expectation readings. It shows a large increase in one-year inflation expectations, the blue line, which is consistent with the cost of tariffs being largely passed through to prices. Indeed, many respondents mentioned tariffs as the reason for that rise. Moreover, businesses, including contacts in the Beige Book, also report that they expect to pass on the costs of tariffs to their customers. More worrisome is the uptick in longer-term inflation expectations, the dark orange line, which may be influenced by tariff concerns or the slow pace of disinflation.
    However, I look at several measures of inflation expectations, including those derived from financial markets, shown in figure 8. Those measures show a significant rise in inflation compensation for this year, the blue line. However, reassuringly, there has been little increase in inflation compensation over the five years starting five years from now, the dark orange line. It will be important to watch closely those indicators of longer-term inflation expectations. If they were to rise substantially, it may become more difficult to keep actual inflation on a path back toward our 2 percent goal.
    Labor MarketNow let’s examine something I am sure some soon-to-be graduates here are monitoring: the labor market. Currently, the labor market does not appear to be a significant source of inflation pressure, as wage growth has continued to moderate. Looking at figure 9, you can see the Labor Department’s employment cost index report showed that wages and salaries for private-sector workers rose at a 3.6 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter. After rising during the post-pandemic recovery, wage growth has moved closer to a level consistent with moderate inflation. Moreover, the wage premium for job switchers over those staying in their jobs, a substantial contributor to wage growth early in the pandemic recovery, has largely disappeared, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. Notably, wage gains continue to outpace inflation, consistent with other measures showing that the labor market remains in a solid position.
    After a long period of normalization that began in 2022, the labor market appears to have stabilized since last summer. While hiring has slowed, layoffs continue to be low overall. The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent in February, remains historically low. Looking at figure 10, you can see that the rate has held in a narrow range between 3.9 and 4.2 percent for the past year. Economists sometimes call the unemployment rate the U-3 series, as it is one of several measures of labor market slack. Employers added 200,000 jobs per month in the three months through February, a solid pace of job creation, although it is down from its post-pandemic peaks. Recent data show the labor market to be balanced. Take a look at figure 11. It shows the number of available jobs is about equal to the number of available workers. You can see that is much different from 2022, when vacancies were high relative to people looking for work. We will learn more details about the labor market tomorrow, when the March jobs report is released.
    Looking beyond the headline labor market data, recent signals of softness have emerged and should be monitored. Figure 12 shows the number of workers with part-time jobs who want full-time jobs. Economists say these people are working “part time for economic reasons.” The February jobs data showed a pickup in the number of workers in this category. This group is part of a broader measure of unemployment and underemployment, called the U-6 series. In addition, one measure of confidence in the labor market is the rate at which workers voluntarily quit their jobs. Take a look at figure 13. The quits rate was very high in 2022, when workers expected to be able to easily find a new job with higher wages. Now you can see that the quits rate has fallen to a more normal level. Consistent with that, surveys show that workers’ perceptions of job availability have declined. Both measures are now below their levels from 2018 and 2019, before the pandemic, when the labor market was very strong.
    We are also beginning to see ripples from cuts to federal jobs and funding. These cuts have affected federal workers across the entire country. Also affected are government contractors and universities, who have announced layoffs or hiring freezes amid cuts and pauses in federal research grants. Although the number of layoffs so far has been modest, the news and uncertainty have raised concerns about job security for households and consumer demand for businesses, as is evident in the Michigan survey and the Beige Book. The Federal Reserve produces the Beige Book before every FOMC meeting, and it provides a timely, useful narrative about the economy from all 12 districts to accompany the multitude of data we receive prior to FOMC meetings. This is recommended reading for all econ majors and anyone else interested in economic activity throughout the country.
    Economic ActivityOverall, the U.S. economy entered the year in a solid position. Real GDP rose at a 2.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter of last year, extending a period of steady growth. Robust income growth and the wealth effect from several years of strong increases in asset prices boosted consumer outlays.
    Data show that personal consumption spending slowed in the first two months of this year. Although some of the reduction in spending may be due to unseasonably bad weather, consumers appear to have less of a financial cushion now than in recent years, and they are more pessimistic about their labor-market and income prospects.
    Businesses say that heightened uncertainty due to trade and other policies has hurt their plans for hiring and investment. Figure 14 shows a sizable increase in firms mentioning trade policy uncertainty on earnings calls in recent months. Some businesses, especially in construction, agriculture, senior care, and food services, are also concerned that a slowdown in immigration will reduce labor supply. In addition to survey data, businesses have expressed uncertainty in their forecasts, on earnings calls, and in other anecdotal reports.
    Currently, my baseline forecast is that U.S. economic growth will slow moderately this year, with the unemployment rate picking up a bit, while inflation progress will stall in the near term, in part because of tariffs and other policy changes. Elevated and rising uncertainty, however, means that I am very attentive to scenarios that could be quite different from my baseline. It is possible that new policies could prove to be minimally disruptive and consumer demand could remain resilient, and overall growth may be stronger than anticipated. However, I currently place more weight on scenarios where risks are skewed to the upside for inflation and to the downside for growth. Such scenarios, with higher initial inflation and slower growth, could pose challenges for monetary policy.
    Monetary Policy at a Time of UncertaintyNow that I have explained my economic outlook, I would like to explore an important question at this moment: How should monetary policy be conducted during a time of heightened uncertainty? I believe one useful guide is the framework on optimal monetary policy decision making under uncertainty described by former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke in 2007.6 He saw three areas of uncertainty relevant for policymakers:

    The current state of the economy.
    The structure of the economy.
    The way in which private agents form expectations about future economic developments and policy actions.

    Let us take those one by one.
    So how do I seek clarity on the current state of the economy? As I have said since I first joined the Federal Reserve Board nearly three years ago, I think it is important to look at a wide range of data in judging the economy. Certainly, the key monthly and quarterly economic data releases are the gold standard, but I also find useful information in real-time data, surveys, and contacts with participants in the economy.
    During the pandemic, the economic effects of widespread shutdowns were quickly seen in real-time data from unconventional sources, including Google mobility data, Open Table reservations, and social media metrics. More recently, the sharp rise in uncertainty—and some of the implications—can be seen in timely information from affected businesses. For instance, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia conducts a survey of manufacturing firms in its District. In figure 15, you can see that those firms report a significant rise so far this year in the prices they are paying for inputs and in the prices they expect to charge for their products. Turning to figure 16, those firms report that current manufacturing activity was boosted in January—the spike in the orange line—in part as firms built up inventories ahead of expected trade policy changes. Activity then slowed, and their expectations of future activity have eased as well.
    What about a second source of uncertainty—the structure of the economy? One aspect of that is how demand in the economy responds to changes in the Fed’s policy rate. A way of judging those changes is by looking at financial conditions more broadly. Among the data series that matter for decisions of consumers and businesses are mortgage rates, other long-term interest rates, equity prices, and the foreign exchange value of the dollar. Using those variables, Fed staff have constructed an index of overall financial conditions, called FCI-G. You can see that in figure 17. That index showed financial conditions easing notably (becoming a tailwind to GDP growth) in 2020 and into 2021 as the Fed eased policy in response to the economic fallout from the pandemic and then tightening sharply in 2022 along with higher Fed policy rates. Over the past two years, overall financial conditions have eased modestly amid a strong stock market and moderation in long-term interest rates as inflation came down. Currently, the FCI-G index shows financial conditions to be about neutral for GDP growth in the coming year.
    What about uncertainty related to how private agents form expectations about future economic developments and policy actions as a source of uncertainty? Currently, I believe this is the primary source of uncertainty. Even before yesterday’s larger than expected announcements on trade policy, businesses and consumers reported a high degree of uncertainty about current and future trade policy actions, and—as I discussed—surveys generally show increased expectations of inflation, at least for the coming year.
    What could be the effects of that uncertainty, and what should be the monetary policy response? Tariff-related price increases and rising inflation expectations could argue for maintaining a restrictive stance for longer to reduce the risk of unanchored inflation expectations. But these price increases also lower disposable personal income, which could lead to lower consumer spending. And the uncertainty related to tariffs, by stalling hiring and investment, could generate a negative growth impulse to the economy and a weaker labor market.
    Amid growing uncertainty and risks to both sides of our dual mandate, I believe it will be appropriate to maintain the policy rate at its current level while continuing to vigilantly monitor developments that could change the outlook.
    Monetary policy is still moderately restrictive, though less so than before our rate cuts last year, which totaled 1 percentage point. Over time, if uncertainty clears and we see further progress on inflation toward our 2 percent target, it will likely be appropriate to lower the policy rate to reduce the degree of monetary policy restriction. I could imagine scenarios where rates could be held at current levels longer or eased faster based on the evolution of inflation and unemployment. For now, we can afford to be patient but attentive. I believe that policy is well situated to respond to developments, and I am continuously updating my outlook as matters evolve.
    ConclusionAs I conclude, I will reiterate the economy has been through an extraordinary period, since the onset of the pandemic, that has posed significant challenges for monetary policymakers. It is encouraging that inflation has moderated, albeit to a rate above our 2 percent target, while the labor market and broader economy remain solid. It appears that the economy, for the moment, has entered a period of uncertainty. I will repeat that I believe that current monetary policy is well positioned to respond to coming economic developments, and I will be watching those developments carefully.
    Thank you again for hosting me here at Pitt. It has been an honor to deliver the McKay lecture, and I look forward to continuing our conversation.

    1. The views expressed here are my own and not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text
    2. Alan Greenspan (1994), “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” testimony before the Subcommittee on Economic Growth and Credit Formation of the Committee on Banking, Finance and Urban Affairs, U.S. House of Representatives, February 22. Return to text
    3. This is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index. Return to text
    4. See David Autor, Arindrajit Dube, and Annie McGrew (2023), “The Unexpected Compression: Competition at Work in the Low Wage Labor Market,” NBER Working Paper Series 31010 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, March; revised May 2024). Return to text
    5. See Lisa D. Cook (2024), “Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity,” speech delivered at “Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work,” a conference organized by the Federal Reserve Banks of Atlanta, Boston, and Richmond, Atlanta, October 1; Lisa D. Cook (2024), “What Will Artificial Intelligence Mean for America’s Workers?” speech delivered at The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio, September 26. Return to text
    6. See Ben S. Bernanke (2007), “Monetary Policy under Uncertainty,” speech delivered at the 32nd Annual Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (via videoconference), October 19. Return to text

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Security: NATO Deputy Secretary General calls for stepping up support to Ukraine at EU Defence Ministers’ informal meeting

    Source: NATO

    On Thursday (3 April 2025), NATO Deputy Secretary General Radmila Shekerinska attended an informal meeting of EU Defence Ministers in Warsaw, hosted by EU High Representative/Vice-President Kaja Kallas and Polish Minister of Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, together with Ukrainian Defence Minister Rustem Umerov.

    Ms Shekerinska stressed that securing lasting peace for Ukraine is essential for European security and for global stability. She called for strengthened support for Ukraine, now and for the long haul, noting that for peace to be lasting, Ukraine must remain strong.

    The Deputy Secretary General welcomed recent announcements by NATO Allies of further aid to Ukraine, including air defence, armoured vehicles, drones, and munitions. NATO is also helping to strengthen Ukraine’s armed forces for the long-term, including through financial support, NATO’s Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), and the new NATO-Ukraine Joint Analysis Training and Education Centre in Poland.

    Ms Shekerinska commended NATO-EU cooperation, both in Brussels and on the ground, where NSATU works closely with the EU’s Military Assistance Mission for Ukraine (EUMAM) to streamline international support for Ukraine. She welcomed the EU’s recent initiatives on defence and noted that NATO-EU discussions would continue with High Representative/Vice-President Kaja Kallas, at the upcoming meeting of NATO Foreign Ministers.

    MIL Security OSI –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: World Affairs Briefing: World considers response to Trump’s tariffs – and Israel launches new Gaza offensive

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sam Phelps, Commissioning Editor, International Affairs

    This article was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email newsletter. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.

    Donald Trump has announced a massive package of trade tariffs on some of America’s largest trading partners. In a speech on the White House lawn, Trump said that America had been “looted, pillaged and raped” by these countries for decades, adding that “in many cases, the friend is worse than the foe”.

    Trump claims that April 2, which he has called “liberation day”, will “forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn”. The tariffs include 20% on imports from the EU, 24% on those from Japan, 27% for India, and 34% for China. The UK got off comparatively lightly, with tariffs of 10%.

    Renaud Foucart, a senior lecturer in economics at Lancaster University, explores how the world may react. In his view, there are three possible scenarios.



    Read more:
    How the UK and Europe could respond to Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs

    First, countries may seek to forge trade deals with the US that, as Foucart puts it, “give Trump enough rope to climb down”. This is the approach favoured by British prime minister Keir Starmer. But it does send the message that the US can obtain concessions from its international partners by bullying them.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    Second, countries may retaliate. Whether through reciprocal tariffs or tools like the European Commission’s “anti-coercion instrument”, the goal will be to force the US to back down. If this scenario plays out, new modelling by Niven Winchester of Auckland University of Technology suggests it is probably the US that stands to lose the most, while some countries may actually gain.



    Read more:
    New modelling reveals full impact of Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs – with the US hit hardest

    Third, in what is the most dramatic scenario, we may see a reorganisation of the world order that more or less avoids the US. This would take the world to uncharted economic and political territories.

    A renewed offensive

    Meanwhile, Israeli officials have announced a major expansion of military operations in Gaza. In a statement released on Wednesday, Israel’s defence minister, Israel Katz, said that “troops will move to clear areas of terrorists and infrastructure, and seize extensive territory that will be added to the state of Israel’s security areas”.

    The country’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, later confirmed the plans. In a video message, he announced that Israel would be building a new security corridor called the “Morag Route” to “divide up” the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu says carving Gaza will add pressure on Hamas to return the remaining 59 hostages.

    We spoke to Scott Lucas, a Middle East expert at University College Dublin and a regular contributor to our coverage of the war in Gaza, about Israel’s renewed offensive and some of the other key issues involved.

    In his view, the resumption of the ground offensive in Gaza was largely inevitable once Netanyahu’s government refused to move from phase one of the ceasefire to phase two. The second phase would have involved the establishment of a permanent ceasefire and a complete Israeli military withdrawal. This, as Lucas explains, was never going to be agreed by Netanyahu.

    “Beyond his personal opposition to the requisite Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, powerful hard-right ministers in his government had made clear that their acceptance of phase one was conditioned on no phase two and on a return to military operations,” Lucas writes. Netanyahu’s political survival depends on the continuation of the war.



    Read more:
    Why is Israel expanding its offensive in Gaza and what does it mean for the Middle East? Expert Q&A

    But according to Leonie Fleischmann, a senior lecturer in international politics at City St George’s, University of London, the decision to launch another ground offensive in Gaza remains a high-risk strategy.

    Netanyahu is already unpopular among many Israeli citizens, as is the continued assault on Gaza. And his recent attempts to bend Israel’s legal system to his will by pushing through a law that would give the government the power to appoint new members of the supreme court have certainly not endeared him to many.

    The move has the potential to undermine the country’s system of checks and balances which, as in many western democracies, rests largely on the separation of powers. But in Fleischmann’s view, it was not unexpected.

    Netanyahu has done anything he can to try to gain control of the country’s judiciary over the past few years. He was charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust in 2019, which he denies, and has consistently sought to delay legal proceedings.

    It remains to be seen whether pressure from the Israeli public can check Netanyahu’s power. Widespread unrest over the weekend caused Netanyahu to pause plans for judicial reform, though he has maintained that the overhaul is still needed.



    Read more:
    As Israel begins another assault in Gaza, Netanyahu is fighting his own war against the country’s legal system

    Elsewhere, we have reported on the recent endorsement of Trump’s policies by Aleksandr Dugin, who is sometimes referred to as “Putin’s brain” because of his ideological influence on Russian politics.

    “Trumpists and the followers of Trump will understand much better what Russia is, who Putin is and the motivations of our politics,” Dugin said in an interview with CNN on March 30.

    His endorsement should be a warning of the disruptive nature of the Trump White House, says Kevin Riehle of Brunel University of London.



    Read more:
    ‘Putin’s brain’: Aleksandr Dugin, the Russian ultra-nationalist who has endorsed Donald Trump

    And China may be making preparations for an invasion of Taiwan. As naval history expert Matthew Heaslip of the University of Portsmouth reports, a handful of so-called Shuiqiao barges were filmed at a beach in China’s Guangdong province in March.

    The barges, the name of which translates to “water bridge”, were working together to form a relocatable bridge to enable the transfer of vehicles, supplies and people between ship and shore.

    Heaslip points out that, as there is no obvious commercial role for such large vessels, the most likely purpose is for landing armed forces during amphibious operations. But, as he reassures in this piece, their appearance does not guarantee that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is imminent.



    Read more:
    What these new landing barges can tell us about China’s plans to invade Taiwan

    There are reported to be three completed prototype landing barges ready for deployment and three under construction. This would offer just one or two beach bridges, which would be of minimal value in a major invasion.

    World Affairs Briefing from The Conversation UK is available as a weekly email newsletter. Click here to get updates directly in your inbox.

    – ref. World Affairs Briefing: World considers response to Trump’s tariffs – and Israel launches new Gaza offensive – https://theconversation.com/world-affairs-briefing-world-considers-response-to-trumps-tariffs-and-israel-launches-new-gaza-offensive-253647

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI USA: SCHNEIDER, HAMADEH INTRODUCE BIPARTISAN PEACE ACT TO STRENGTHEN US DIPLOMATIC CAPACITY ON THE ABRAHAM ACCORDS

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Representative Brad Schneider (D-IL)

    WASHINGTON – Today, Congressman Brad Schneider (IL-10), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Co-Chair and Co-Founder of the Abraham Accords Caucus, introduced the Promoting Education on the Abraham Accords for Comprehensive Engagement (PEACE) Act, alongside Congressman Abraham Hamadeh (AZ-8). This bipartisan legislation would bolster the training of U.S. diplomats on the Abraham Accords and other normalization agreements with Israel, ensuring our diplomatic corps is equipped to support regional cooperation and stability.

    “The Abraham Accords have reshaped the Middle East, proving that peace with Israel is not only possible, but profoundly beneficial for the entire region,” said Rep. Schneider. “As new opportunities emerge for cooperation—from economic development to security coordination—it’s vital that our diplomats understand both the promise and the complexity of these agreements. The PEACE Act will ensure the United States remains a committed, informed partner in advancing normalization, deepening ties with Israel, and expanding the circle of peace.”

    “As an advocate for the US maintaining a strong leadership position in the Middle East, I am proud to join Rep. Brad Schneider in introducing the PEACE Act. This legislation will serve to strengthen our great nation’s diplomatic engagement by institutionalizing pro-Israel, pro-America training on the Abraham Accords,” said Rep. Hamadeh. “Our future diplomats must be equipped to advance regional cooperation instead of fashionable anti-normalization rhetoric, in order to bring long-term stability and security to the region. The fact that our bill has bipartisan support sends a clear message to friend and foe alike – the US is committed to the peace and prosperity promised in President Trump’s Abraham Accords.”

    The PEACE Act authorizes the Secretary of State to enhance training at the Foreign Service Institute with content specifically focused on the Abraham Accords, as well as previous peace agreements between Israel and regional partners like Egypt and Jordan. It also calls for the development of virtual training modules accessible across the Department of State and authorizes fellowships for Foreign Service Officers to engage with counterparts in Abraham Accords countries.

    To ensure accountability and long-term strategic planning, the bill establishes a bipartisan Abraham Accords and Normalization Advisory Board, with appointees from both chambers of Congress. The bill also requires the Secretary of State to submit a strategy to Congress outlining how this training will be integrated into existing frameworks and how it supports broader U.S. policy objectives.

    The bill text is available here.

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI USA: Hirono, Garamendi, Obernolte Lead Colleagues in Introducing Bill to Provide Construction Funding to Federally-Impacted School Districts

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Jay Obernolte (R-Hesperia)

    WASHINGTON, DC – Today, U.S. Senator Mazie K. Hirono (D-HI) and U.S. Representatives John Garamendi (D-CA) and Jay Obernolte (R-CA) led 16 of their colleagues in introducing the Impact Aid Infrastructure Partnership Act, legislation that would provide a total of $1 billion over four years for Impact Aid Construction Grants to address the significant backlog of facility needs at federally impacted school districts. In fiscal year 2024, Hawaii received $53.3 million through the U.S. Department of Education’s federal Impact Aid program.

    Contact:

    Elise Inouye: 202-770-7293 (Hirono) 

    Cameron Niven: 202-384-8625 (Garamendi)

    Connor Chapinski: 202-225-5861 (Obernolte)

     

    Hirono, Garamendi, Obernolte Lead Colleagues in Introducing Bill to Provide Construction Funding to Federally-Impacted School Districts

     

    WASHINGTON, DC – Today, U.S. Senator Mazie K. Hirono (D-HI) and U.S. Representatives John Garamendi (D-CA) and Jay Obernolte (R-CA) led 16 of their colleagues in introducing the Impact Aid Infrastructure Partnership Act, legislation that would provide a total of $1 billion over four years for Impact Aid Construction Grants to address the significant backlog of facility needs at federally impacted school districts. In fiscal year 2024, Hawaii received $53.3 million through the U.S. Department of Education’s federal Impact Aid program.

    “Every child deserves to receive a quality education in a safe, suitable learning environment,” said Senator Hirono. “The Impact Aid Infrastructure Partnership Act would provide critical funding for over 1,000 school districts across the country to address their significant backlogs of construction, repair, and maintenance needs. Impact Aid is one of many critical programs administered by the Department of Education and this bill would strengthen this program to help ensure that federally impacted school districts have the funding they need to support millions of students as they learn and grow in our public schools.”

    “This bill addresses long-overdue repair needs to ensure equitable access to quality education and safe learning environments for students across the country,” said Rep. Garamendi. “I am grateful to Senator Hirono for introducing this legislation in the Senate and for fighting for safe environments for teachers and students,” said Garamendi. Every child should have the opportunity to learn and excel in a safe environment. This legislation brings us closer to realizing that goal.” 

    “In California’s 23rd District, many of our schools serve military families and are located near federal lands that do not pay local tax and therefore reduce local tax revenues,” said Rep. Obernolte. “These schools face serious infrastructure challenges—from outdated buildings to limited capacity for critical upgrades. The Impact Aid Infrastructure Partnership Act is a vital step forward. It provides the resources and federal-local collaboration our schools need to modernize their facilities and create safe, effective learning environments for every student. I’m proud to help lead this legislation because it delivers real support to our communities and honors our commitment to military families and rural schools alike.”

    The Impact Aid Infrastructure Partnership Act would ensure that federally impacted school districts have the resources needed to provide every student with a quality education and safe learning environment by authorizing $250,000,000 annually for four years for Impact Aid Construction Grants. Of this funding, 25% would be made available via formula funding to all eligible school districts. The Department of Education would disseminate the remaining 75% as competitive grants with priority for those school districts with acute emergencies in their facilities.

     The federal Impact Aid program offers federal support for public school districts where federal activity has reduced the available tax base. As federal lands are tax exempt, including military installations, Indian treaty, trust, or Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act, and federal properties and facilities, federally impacted school districts have significantly less tax revenue and bonding capacity to meet their needs. Currently, Impact Aid supports over 1,100 school districts, totaling more than 10 million students.

    “The Impact Aid Infrastructure Partnership Act is a crucial investment in the future of federally impacted school districts,” said Nicole Russell, Executive Director, National Association of Federally Impacted Schools (NAFIS). “Too many schools serving military-connected children, Native American students, and others affected by federal property face deteriorating facilities that undermine student achievement and make it difficult to recruit and retain teachers–and they lack the tax base to overcome these challenges due to the presence of nontaxable federal property. By addressing the extensive backlog of infrastructure needs, this legislation is an important step in leveling the playing field and ensuring every student has access to a safe, modern learning environment that supports their success.”

    “2025 marks the 75th anniversary of the Impact Aid law, which recognized the Federal Government’s obligation to replace lost tax revenue in school districts with a federal presence by providing operational and minimal construction funding,” said Brent Gish, Executive Director, National Indian Impacted Schools Association (NIISA). “The Impact Aid Infrastructure Partnership Act would provide crucial funding to districts serving students residing on Indian land and those in military and federal property areas. These districts have very limited and sometimes no bonding capacity to construct new or renovate existing facilities and teacher housing. The growing backlog of need now exceeds $4 billion. It is our strong belief that in America, all children deserve a high-quality education in a safe and modern facility that supports innovative, culturally rich teaching. Quality facilities coupled with research-based instruction yields positive learning outcomes!”

    “Schools around the country that receive Federal Impact Aid have a distinct disadvantage when it comes to raising funds for school construction,” said Kyle Fairbairn, Executive Director, Military Impacted Schools Association (MISA). “In a majority of states, the only way to build a school or do an extensive remodel is by passing a local bond issue supported by property taxes. In Impact Aid districts, these funds become the responsibility of local taxpayers because the federal government does not pay taxes on land it owns. This makes passing a bond issue very difficult, as it places a tremendous burden on taxpayers who do pay property taxes. The Impact Aid Infrastructure Partnership Act is a way to have the federal government help fund local schools, benefiting all taxpayers within an LEA.” 

    The Impact Aid Infrastructure Partnership Act is endorsed by National Association of Federally Impacted Schools (NAFIS); National Indian Impacted Schools Association (NIISA); Military Impacted Schools Association (MISA); and Build America’s School Infrastructure Coalition (BASIC). 

    In the Senate, this legislation was cosponsored by Senators Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Dick Durbin (D-IL), Ruben Gallego (D-AZ), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Alex Padilla (D-CA), Brian Schatz (D-HI), and Tina Smith (D-MN).

    In the House, it was cosponsored by Representatives Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC), Julia Brownley (D-CA-26), Marilyn Strickland (D-WA-10), Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ-5), Don Davis (D-NC-1), Teresa Leger Fernández (D-NM-03), and Emily Randall (D-WA-06). 

    The full text of the legislation is available here.

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Security: Convicted Felon Pleads Guilty to Federal Charges in Shooting Incident

    Source: Office of United States Attorneys

    ALBUQUERQUE – A Zuni man pleaded guilty to federal charges stemming from a violent shooting incident involving the illegal use of a firearm.

    According to court records, on the night of September 19, 2024, Devin Wade Wyaco shot John Doe (who was riding a bicycle) from the passenger side of his girlfriend’s vehicle, striking John Doe in the abdomen. Doe was transported to Zuni Hospital and later to the University of New Mexico Hospital for treatment. During an interview with investigators, John Doe identified the vehicle as belonging to Wyaco’s girlfriend. Doe survived the shooting.

    Police identified Wyaco, 34, an enrolled member of the Zuni Pueblo, as the shooter through statements from his girlfriend, who admitted being present during the incident and confirmed Wyaco’s involvement. A federal search warrant executed at her residence corroborated her account. In his plea agreement, Wyaco confessed that he fired at John Doe after becoming angry when one of the bicyclists threw a rock at the car. He also admitted that as a previously convicted felon—having prior convictions for possession of cocaine with intent to distribute and aggravated fleeing from a law-enforcement officer—he knowingly possessed a firearm and ammunition in violation of federal law.

    Handgun recovered from Wyaco’s girlfriend’s home.

    Wyaco pled guilty to all three charges contained in the indictment, including assault with a dangerous weapon, using and carrying a firearm during and in relation to a crime of violence, and being a felon in possession of a firearm.

    At sentencing, Wyaco faces no less than 10 years and up to life in prison followed by up to five years of supervised release. Additionally, Wyaco faces up to $250,000 in fines.

    Acting U.S. Attorney Holland S. Kastrin and Raul Bujanda, Special Agent in Charge of the FBI Albuquerque Field Office, made the announcement today.

    The Gallup Resident Agency of the FBI’s Albuquerque Field Office investigated this case with assistance from the Zuni Police Department. Assistant United States Attorney Zachary C. Jones is prosecuting the case.

    MIL Security OSI –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI: Topline Financial Credit Union Promotes Alan Sonnenburg to Exectuive Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    MAPLE GROVE, Minn., April 03, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — TopLine Financial Credit Union, a Twin Cities-based member-owned financial services cooperative, has promoted Alan Sonnenburg to Executive Vice President and Chief Revenue Officer effective March 31, 2025.

    Sonnenburg joined TopLine in 2018 as the credit union’s Senior Vice President of Lending and Chief lending Officer, with more than 34 years of experience in the financial services industry. During his tenure at TopLine, Alan has been responsible for overseeing consumer lending, loan servicing and underwriting, indirect lending, mortgage services, business services, collections and training teams, and in his expanded role he will add retail branching and operation teams.

    “Alan is a highly talented financial services executive, and this is a well-deserved promotion,” said Mick Olson, President and CEO, TopLine Financial Credit Union. “He played a pivotal role in our 2019 technology conversions, improving and managing our lending operations, strategic planning, and currently assisting with merger activities with Anoka Hennepin Credit Union. His extensive industry experience, knowledge and collaborative approach will allow him to successfully take on this expanded role.”
    Alan is an active participant with the Credit Union Lending Council. He has served in various council roles within his local church; served as treasurer for a student group at Eastview High School, and had various leadership positions within youth sports for Eastview Athletic Association. Alan earned his Bachelor of Science degree from Minnesota State University, Mankato.

    TopLine Financial Credit Union, a Twin Cities-based credit union, is Minnesota’s 9th largest credit union, with assets of over $1.1 billion and serves over 70,000 members. Established in 1935, the not-for-profit financial cooperative offers a complete line of financial services from its ten branch locations — in Bloomington, Brooklyn Park, Champlin, Circle Pines, Coon Rapids, Forest Lake, Maple Grove, Plymouth, St. Francis and in St. Paul’s Como Park — as well as by phone and online at www.TopLinecu.com. Membership is available to anyone who lives, works, worships, attends school or volunteers in Anoka, Benton, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Hennepin, Isanti, Kanabec, Mille Lacs, Pine, Ramsey, Scott, Sherburne, Washington and Wright counties in Minnesota and their immediate family members, as well as employees and retirees of Anoka Hennepin School District #11, Anoka Technical College, Federal Premium Ammunition, Hoffman Enclosures, Inc., GRACO, Inc., and their subsidiaries. Visit us on our Facebook or Instagram. To learn more about the credit union’s foundation, visit www.TopLinecu.com/Foundation.

    CONTACT:
    Vicki Roscoe Erickson
    Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing Officer
    TopLine Financial Credit Union
    verickson@toplinecu.com
    763.391.0872

    A photo accompanying this announcement is available at: https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/c11b6164-a5c8-433a-b220-cb00707b606e

    The MIL Network –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: How a lone judge can block a Trump order nationwide – and why, from DACA to DOGE, this judicial check on presidents’ power is shaping how the government works

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Cassandra Burke Robertson, Professor of Law and Director of the Center for Professional Ethics, Case Western Reserve University

    The Trump administration has asked the Supreme Court to limit judges’ power to issue what legal experts call ‘nationwide preliminary injunctions.’ Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

    When presidents try to make big changes through executive orders, they often hit a roadblock: A single federal judge, whether located in Seattle or Miami or anywhere in between, can stop these policies across the entire country.

    These court orders have increasingly become a political battleground, increasingly sought by both Republicans and Democrats to fight presidential policies they oppose.

    This explains why the Trump administration recently asked the Supreme Court to limit judges’ power to issue what legal experts call “nationwide preliminary injunctions.” Congress also held hearings on curtailing judges’ ability to issue the injunctions.

    But what exactly are these injunctions, and why do they matter to everyday Americans?

    Immediate, irreparable harm

    When the government creates a policy that might violate the Constitution or federal law, affected people can sue in federal court to stop it. While these lawsuits work their way through the courts – a process that often takes years – judges can issue what are called “preliminary injunctions” to temporarily pause the policy if they determine it might cause immediate, irreparable harm.

    A “nationwide” injunction – sometimes called a “universal” injunction – goes further by stopping the policy for everyone across the country, not just for the people who filed the lawsuit.

    Importantly, these injunctions are designed to be temporary. They merely preserve the status quo until courts can fully examine the case’s merits. But in practice, litigation proceeds so slowly that executive actions blocked by the courts often expire when successor administrations abandon the policies.

    Legislation introduced by GOP Sen. Chuck Grassley would ban judges from issuing most nationwide injunctions.
    Sen. Chuck Grassley office

    More executive orders, more injunctions

    Nationwide injunctions aren’t new, but several things have made them more contentious recently.

    First, since a closely divided and polarized Congress rarely passes major legislation anymore, presidents rely more on executive orders to get substantive things done. This creates more opportunities to challenge presidential actions in court.

    Second, lawyers who want to challenge these orders have gotten better at “judge shopping” – filing cases in districts where they’re likely to get judges who agree with their client’s views.

    Third, with growing political division, both parties aim to use these injunctions more aggressively whenever the other party controls the White House.

    Affecting real people

    These legal fights have tangible consequences for millions of Americans.

    Take DACA, the common name for the program formally called Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, which protects about 500,000 young immigrants from deportation. For more than 10 years, these young immigrants, known as “Dreamers,” have faced constant uncertainty.

    That’s because, when President Barack Obama created DACA in 2012 and sought to expand it via executive order in 2015, a Texas judge blocked the expansion with a nationwide injunction. When Trump tried to end DACA, judges in California, New York and Washington, D.C. blocked that move. The program, and the legal challenges to it, continued under President Joe Biden. Now, the second Trump administration faces continued legal challenges over the constitutionality of the DACA program.

    More recently, judges have used nationwide injunctions to block several Donald Trump policies. Three different courts stopped the president’s attempt to deny citizenship to babies born to mothers who lack legal permanent residency in the United States. Judges have also temporarily blocked Trump’s efforts to ban transgender people from serving in the military and to freeze some federal funding for a variety of programs.

    While much of the current debate focuses on presidential policies, nationwide injunctions have also blocked congressional legislation.

    The Corporate Transparency Act, passed in 2021 and originally scheduled to go into effect in 2024, combats financial crimes by requiring businesses to disclose their true owners to the government. A Texas judge blocked this law in 2024 after gun stores challenged it.

    In early 2025, the Supreme Court allowed the law to take effect, but the Trump administration announced it simply wouldn’t enforce it – showing how these legal battles can become political power struggles.

    A polarized Congress rarely passes major legislation anymore, so presidents – including Donald Trump – have relied on executive orders to get things done.
    Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    Too much power or necessary protection?

    Some critics say nationwide injunctions give too much power to a single judge. If lawyers can pick which judges hear their cases, this raises serious questions about fairness.

    Supporters argue that these injunctions protect important rights. For example, without nationwide injunctions in the citizenship cases, babies born to mothers without legal permanent residency would be American citizens in some states but not others – an impossible situation.

    Congress is considering legislation to limit judges’ ability to grant nationwide injunctions.

    The Trump administration has also tried to make it expensive and difficult to challenge its policies in court. In March 2025, Trump ordered government lawyers to demand large cash deposits – called “security bonds” – from anyone seeking an injunction. Though these bonds are already part of existing court rules, judges usually set them at just a few hundred dollars or waive them entirely when people raise constitutional concerns.

    Under the new policy, critics worry that “plaintiffs who sue the government could be forced to put up enormous sums of money in order to proceed with their cases.”

    Another way to address the concerns about a single judge blocking government action would be to require a three-judge panel to hear cases involving nationwide injunctions, requiring at least two of them to agree. This is similar to how courts handled major civil rights cases in the 1950s and 1960s.

    My research on this topic suggests that three judges working together would be less likely to make partisan decisions, while still being able to protect constitutional rights when necessary. Today’s technology also makes it easier for judges in different locations to work together than it was decades ago.

    As the Supreme Court weighs in on this debate, the outcome will affect how presidents can implement policies and how much power individual judges have to stop them. Though it might seem like a technical legal issue, it will shape how government works for years to come – as well as the lives of those who live in the U.S.

    Cassandra Burke Robertson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How a lone judge can block a Trump order nationwide – and why, from DACA to DOGE, this judicial check on presidents’ power is shaping how the government works – https://theconversation.com/how-a-lone-judge-can-block-a-trump-order-nationwide-and-why-from-daca-to-doge-this-judicial-check-on-presidents-power-is-shaping-how-the-government-works-252556

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI USA: Conserving the White Oak Tree: Critical for timber and distilling industries

    Source: US Government research organizations

    New genomic data aids in protecting the species from disease while advancing conservation efforts

    A group of researchers from the University of Kentucky, The University of Tennessee and Indiana University, including those supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation, have collaborated with scientists from the U.S. Forest Service and others to produce the first complete genome for the white oak (Quercus alba), a tree that provides large amounts of timber and is the primary species used in barrels for aging spirits.

    Credit: Matthew Barton, University of Kentucky

    The white oak at Makers Mark Star Hill Farm that provided the sample for recent NSF-funded work to develop a haploid genome for the species, which can be used in conserving this economically important tree.

    Data to complete the genome came from a range of academic sources, the Forest Service, state forest services and industry. By combining those data into an unbiased annotation of the white oak’s genes, the researchers have created a resource to understand genetic diversity and population differentiation within the species, assess disease resistance and the evolution of genes that enhance it, and compare with other oak genomes to determine evolutionary relationships between species and how the genomes have evolved.

    “Plants, including trees, help meet society’s needs for food, fuel, fiber and, in this case, other key economic services. Having genomic data like this helps us address important biological questions, including those related to the economic and societal use of the species,” said Diane Jofuku Okamuro, a program officer in the NSF Directorate for Biological Sciences.

    The research was led by Meg Staton, associate professor at The University of Tennessee, and Drew Larson, NSF postdoctoral fellow at Indiana University, and coordinated by Seth DeBolt, University of Kentucky, and Dana Nelson, U.S. Forest Service Southern Research Station.

    The work, which was also supported by Makers Mark, Independent Stave Company and Suntory Global Spirits, was published in New Phytologist.

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Appointment of Oli de Botton as the PM’s Expert Adviser on Education and Skills

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Press release

    Appointment of Oli de Botton as the PM’s Expert Adviser on Education and Skills

    Oli de Botton has been appointed as the Prime Minister’s Expert Adviser on Education and Skills. 

    Oli de Botton has been appointed as the Prime Minister’s Expert Adviser on Education and Skills. The Prime Minister’s Expert Adviser will advise ministers and drive forward the Government’s vision for education and skills.

    Oli brings with him extensive experience working in education and skills as a teacher, adviser, headteacher and national CEO.

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    Updates to this page

    Published 3 April 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Africa: Trio appear in court for Fort Hare fraud case 

    Source: South Africa News Agency

    Thursday, April 3, 2025

    Three suspects linked to a a multi-million-rand fraud and money laundering scheme at the University of Fort Hare have been granted bail, the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (Hawks) said.

    The three were arrested in a  breakthrough against corruption in the education sector by the East London based Serious Corruption Investigation team.

    Former Acting Chief Financial Officer Simbongile Geqeza (41), former Head of Investigation and Vetting Isaac Plaartjies (57) and family friend Claudine Davids (44) appeared before the Alice Magistrate’s Court on Wednesday where they faced charges of fraud, money laundering and corruption.

    “The arrests follow a detailed investigation by the Serious Corruption Investigation of the Hawks, which uncovered two fraudulent schemes that drained university funds amounting to more than R2 million,” the Hawks said in a statement on Wednesday.

    The first case dates back to 2 September 2021, when Geqeza allegedly issued a fraudulent instruction to a bank, authorising an illegal payment of R1.4 million to a company with no legitimate ties to the university. 

    The scheme was exposed when university management noticed financial discrepancies and reported the matter to the Hawks.

    “During the meticulous investigation conducted by the Hawks, a second fraudulent transaction was uncovered, involving a payment of R985,000 to a service provider for investigative services that were never rendered. 

    Furthermore, the service provider allegedly claimed to have assisted the Hawks during the university investigation, even though no services [were] being provided. This payment was allegedly facilitated by Plaartjies in collaboration with the claimant and the funds were allegedly funnelled to Davids.”

    The suspects were arrested in different parts of the country during a coordinated Hawks operation on 1 April 2025. 
    The court granted each accused bail of R10,000.

    “The case has been postponed to 4 April 2025 for further investigation.” – SAnews.gov.za

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    MIL OSI Africa –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Blue Origin’s all-female space flight urges women to shoot for the stars – but astronaut memoirs reveal the cost of being exceptional

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jasleen Chana, PhD Candidate, Science and Technology Studies, UCL

    For the first time since Russian cosmonaut Valentina Tereshkova’s solo flight in 1963, a spacecraft will enter orbit with only women aboard. Blue Origin’s all-female space flight crew, which includes popstar Katy Perry, is set to take off this spring.

    Jeff Bezos’ crew is assembled from successful and well-known women, also including television presenter Gayle King, producer Kerianne Flynn, former Nasa scientist Aisha Bowe, civil rights activist Amanda Nguyen and journalist Lauren Sanchez. Promotional material for the flight, claims that Perry “hopes her journey encourages her daughter and others to reach for the stars, literally and figuratively”.

    The glamorous optics of this spaceflight are supposedly designed to encourage women to strive for their dreams. The glossy narrative tells others that they can be just like these extraordinary women. Yet, behind this aspirational ideal, there is a more problematic story regarding successful women in science and their roles in public.

    My PhD research examines memoirs written by women astronauts. They construct appealing depictions of women who are successful and exceptional. But in practice their success stories are nigh on impossible for ordinary women to emulate.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    This is epitomised in astronaut Catherine Coleman’s reaction to wearing a spacesuit designed for men. In her 2024 memoir, she wrote: “Most of the time, I took the approach that if the suit didn’t fit, I would simply wear it anyway – and wear it well. Wear it better than anyone expected.”

    Mae Carol Jemison was the first black woman to travel to space.
    Nasa

    As this quote shows, women who have travelled to space tend to construct themselves as having worked exceptionally hard to deny the norms of what is expected of them and to offset systemic biases.

    From the outset of her memoir, Coleman emphasises that she’s always had to be an “exception” from the rest of humanity, which feels alienating. But she also consistently suggests that her life was destined to be this way. “Space felt like home to me,” she says, tacitly acknowledging that she was always meant to be there.

    Jemison, who was the first African American woman in space, also expresses this sense of destiny in her 2001 memoir. “I perched quietly, looking out of the windows on the flight deck,” she writes. “Strange, but I always knew I’d be here. Looking down and all around me, seeing the Earth, the moon, and the stars, I just felt like I belonged.”

    The crew set to board the Blue Origin flight want to be storytellers in the same way that women astronauts are in their memoirs. But the well-known members of its crew are a reminder that hard work is only part of this particular story – fortune and privilege also play a part.

    Eileen Collins was the first woman to pilot and command a space shuttle. In her 2021 memoir, she details the pressures and expectations of working in a male-dominated field. She found that it exacerbated already tricky decision-making and the need to perform critical actions correctly.

    When she says “current and future women pilots are counting on me to do a perfect job up here,” she exemplifies the harsh scrutiny that women astronauts are often subject to when they are the first of their gender.

    Behind the cover

    The issue with popular scientific memoirs is that they are consistently marketed as honest and truthful works. These books promise to reveal who the astronaut actually is, but they are, in fact, carefully curated images of the women they portray.

    So while they intend to motivate and inspire others, the memoirs don’t always do so in a totally honest way. This draws a parallel with the Blue Origin flight.

    Perry discusses her space flight.

    Many of these narratives seek to rewrite past stereotypes of scientists while also functioning as a response to the contemporary appetite for memoirs that reveal the interior emotional world of their subjects. For example, Kathryn Sullivan discusses “wrestling” with visceral “pangs” of pain at being unable to launch her mission due to technical issues.

    This concept reflects why there is a fevered public expectation that the Blue Origin flight crew will embark on a perspective-shifting journey and experience “deep emotions from space”.

    While current coverage surrounding the launch frames it as a celebration of collective advancement, the people comprising this spaceflight crew do not reflect most women.

    If the Blue Origin mission is to be a lodestar for a universal feminist narrative, using women’s spaceflight as a measure of progress, then it should also be considered in tandem with the incongruities and uniqueness of women’s experiences. Ultimately, it is important to move away from narratives that inform us that science, spaceflight and success are only synonymous with fame and exceptionalism.

    Jasleen Chana does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Blue Origin’s all-female space flight urges women to shoot for the stars – but astronaut memoirs reveal the cost of being exceptional – https://theconversation.com/blue-origins-all-female-space-flight-urges-women-to-shoot-for-the-stars-but-astronaut-memoirs-reveal-the-cost-of-being-exceptional-251880

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI USA: Huizenga Named Most Effective Member of the Michigan Congressional Delegation in the U.S. House

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Bill Huizenga (MI-02)

    Recently, the Center for Effective Lawmaking released its analysis of the 118th Congress and found Congressman Bill Huizenga (R-MI) to be the most effective member of the Michigan Congressional Delegation in the U.S. House. The analysis also found during divided government in the last Congress, Huizenga exceeded expectations by outperforming the established benchmark by more than 60%. Overall, Congressman Huizenga scored in the top 8% of all House Members for the 118th Congress. Upon reviewing the report, Congressman Huizenga released the following statement.

    “It is an honor to be named the most effective member of the Michigan Delegation in the U.S. House,” said Congressman Bill Huizenga. “My top priority continues to be serving the residents of Southwest Michigan in the most efficient and effective way possible. While there is still much work to be done, I look forward to continuing to deliver on legislative solutions that make Southwest Michigan an even better place to live, work, and raise a family.”

    Background:

    The Center for Effective Lawmaking (CEL) is a joint partnership between the University of Virginia and Vanderbilt University. Each Congress, CEL ranks lawmakers according to their effectiveness using a combination of 15 metrics on the bills they sponsor, how far they move through the legislative process, and how substantial their policy proposals are. Lawmakers are then assigned a Legislative Effectiveness Score (LES). The study provides evidence on how effective lawmaking continued to occur despite divided government and internal struggles within closely divided chambers of Congress.

    The average score in both the House and the Senate was normalized to 1.0. Additionally, CEL establishes a benchmark for each member which is their expected LES based on their party, seniority, and committee position. Congressman Huizenga was given a benchmark of 1.481 but earned a score of 2.383 and was labeled as “exceed expectations.” Lawmakers “exceed expectations” when they outperform the benchmark by 50% or more. More information and scores for the entire Michigan Delegation can be found here.

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI USA: Davis, Bonamici, Moore, Plaskett, Horsford Champion Bill to Increase Guaranteed Child Care Funding while GOP Plans to Cut Federal Child Care Dollars

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Danny K Davis (7th District of Illinois)

    Building Child Care for a Better Future Act expands guaranteed child care funding and creates grants to improve child care workforce, supply, quality, and access.  

     

    In contrast, Republican-proposed funding cuts to pay for tax giveaways to the wealthiest individuals and corporations would eliminate child care for 40,000 children. 

     

    Washington, D.C.- Representative Danny K. Davis (D-IL), Representative Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR), Representative Gwen Moore (D-WI), Representative Stacey E. Plaskett (D-VI), and Representative Steven Horsford (D-NV) announced the introduction of the Building Child Care for a Better Future Act (H.R. 2595) to dramatically increase guaranteed child care funding to address child care needs and create grants to enhance child care workforce, supply, quality, and access.  Senators Ron Wyden and Elizabeth Warren will introduce companion legislation in the Senate. 

    The need to rebuild a stronger, more robust and more equitable child care system is more important than ever as working families across America struggle to access affordable, quality child care. Alarmingly, Republicans are threatening to eliminate child care for 40,000 children to pay for their massive tax giveaways for the wealthiest individuals and corporations. Additionally, the mass layoffs at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, including the offices at the Administration for Children and Families that administer child care and Head Start programs, will make child care even less accessible and affordable, as well as less safe. The long-term solutions in this bill complement the other Democratic bills that address the immediate child care cliff created by Republican inaction.

    High-quality, affordable child care is essential to the economic well-being of families, businesses, and our country. Yet, child care places a major financial burden on American families. The price of child care can range from $5,357 to $17,171 per year depending on location and type of care. Astoundingly, the cost of center-based care for two children is more than the average mortgage in 45 states and more than the average annual rent in all 50 states plus DC.  Households under the poverty line spend nearly one third of their income on child care, and increases in median childcare prices are connected to lower maternal employment rates.  Further, the child care crisis hits families of color disproportionately hard.  For a single parent who has never been married who is Black, Hawaiian/Pacific Islander, or American Indian/Alaska Native, child care can cost 36%, 41%, or 49% of the median income, respectively, compared to only 31% for single White parents.  Further, Latino and American Indian and Alaska Native parents disproportionately live in child care deserts. 

    The Building Child Care for a Better Future Act addresses the child care needs of families and long-term stability of the child care system. Specifically, the bill:

    • Helps working families with their child care needs by expanding guaranteed child care funding by increasing the Child Care Entitlement to States to $20 billion per year, over a five-fold increase in funding from the current $3.55 billion per year. Further, the bill increases funding for tribes, tribal organizations, and territories. The bill builds on the Democrats’ permanent increase in guaranteed child care funding to states in 2021, which also provided the first-ever guaranteed funding allotments for the U.S. territories in the Child Care Entitlement to States. 

    • Creates new grants to improve child care workforce, supply, quality, and access in communities experiencing child care shortages. Funds could be used for any purpose under the Child Care Development Block Grant to address local needs, including:  increasing child care slots; supporting workforce training and expansion; expanding operations of community or neighborhood-based family child care networks; and recruiting providers and staff.

    “High-quality, affordable child care is essential to the economic well-being of families, businesses, and our country,” said Rep. Davis.  “The Building Child Care for a Better Future Act would provide $20 billion in guaranteed grants to states, tribes, and territories to make child care affordable.  Further, the bill would create $5 billion in new grants to improve child care workforce, supply, quality, and access in communities experiencing child care shortages. It is critical that Congress acts now to help working families by stabilizing our nation’s child care system and to reject the dangerous Republican cuts to child care.” 

    “Too many families in Oregon and across the country struggle to find affordable child care, and child care providers often do not make a living wage,” said Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici. “The Building Child Care for a Better Future Act will strengthen our child care system by investing in families, child care providers, and early childhood educators. The investments in this bill will open up opportunities for children, families, childcare providers, and the economy.”

    “The cost of childcare continues to squeeze families and is even more burdensome for low-income families.  At the same time, too many childcare workers don’t earn a living wage and are struggling to get by. Our legislation would help make high-quality childcare more accessible and affordable and invest in its workforce,” said Rep. Moore.

    “As part of the American Rescue Plan Act in 2021, Congress expanded the Child Care Entitlement to States program to include U.S. territories like my district for the first time,” said Rep. Plaskett.  “The Building Child Care for a Better Future Act significantly increases investments in childcare for American families living in U.S. territories and enhances our commitment to equity. The annual average cost of childcare ranges from $4,000 to as high as $25,000, depending on location. I am proud to partner with my colleagues and respond to the critical need nationwide for available, accessible, and affordable childcare.”

    “Across Nevada and the nation, working families are caught in a tough balancing act – juggling skyrocketing costs of child care while trying to earn a living,” said Rep. Horsford. “For the poorest households, child care isn’t just expensive: it’s a crushing burden, often costing more than rent or a mortgage. If we truly believe in the American dream, we must eliminate the barriers holding families back from opportunities of economic mobility and progress. This bill strengthens our child care infrastructure by providing grants to lower costs for working families, enhance the child care workforce, and improve the quality of care in our communities.”

    “At a time when families are struggling to find affordable child care so they can work and pay their bills, Republicans in Congress are making their priorities clear with 40,000 kids about to lose their child care to pay for another handout to billionaires. Taken together with the absolute gutting of HHS and the offices responsible for Head Start and child care, America’s child care crisis is on track to only grow worse,” Wyden said. “It doesn’t have to be this way, our bill invests in working families by making sure more families can get child care, and that new child care centers can be built to increase slots while also guaranteeing a living wage for the essential workers who staff them. That is where priorities should lie.”

    “Parents shouldn’t have to choose between breaking the budget, cutting back their work hours, or settling for lower-quality care to make sure their kids have child care,” Warren said. “I am grateful for Senator Wyden’s and Representative Davis’ partnership and commitment to investing in child care so working parents have a fighting chance in our economy.”

    The Building Child Care for a Better Future Act is supported by 50 organizations, including:  American Academy of Pediatrics; American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO); American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME); American Federation of Teachers (AFT); Campaign for a Family Friendly Economy; Caring Across Generations; Center for Law and Social Policy (CLASP); Child Care Aware of America; Child Care for Every Family Network; Communications Workers of America (CWA); Community Change Action; Early Care & Education Consortium (ECEC); Family Forward Oregon; Family Values at Work; First Children’s Finance; First Five Years Fund; First Focus Campaign for Children; Iowa Association for the Education of Young Children; KinderCare; Little Miracles Early Development Center; Maine Association for the Education of Young Children; Maine People’s Alliance; Maryland Association for the Education of Young Children (MDAEYC); Massachusetts Association for the Education of Young Children (MAAEYC); MomsRising; Montana Family Childcare Network; National Association for Family Child Care (NAFCC); National Association for the Education of Young Children (NAEYC); National Education Association (NEA); National Indian Child Care Association (NICCA); National Women’s Law Center; New Jersey Association for the Education of Young Children; NJ Communities United; OAEYC, Ohio Association for the Education of Young Children; ORAEYC Oregon Association for the Education of Young Children; Our Children Oregon; Pennsylvania Association for the Education of Young Children; Pennsylvania Child Care Association; Pennsylvania Partnerships for Children; Prevent Child Abuse America; Rhode Island Association for the Education of Young Children; Save the Children; SEIU; South Carolina Association for the Education of Young Children (SCAEYC); Southwest Ohio Association for the Education of Young Children; Small Business Majority; Trying Together; Virginia Association for the Education of Young Children; Virginia Organizing; Wisconsin Early Childhood Association; and ZERO TO THREE.

    A copy of the legislation is available HERE. 

    A summary of the bill is available HERE.

    Organizational Quotations: 

    Center for Law and Social Policy

    “The Building Child Care for a Better Future Act will make child care more affordable for families and invest in the workforce that makes it all possible. By ensuring sustainable and reliable funding and bolstering the supply of child care, we can build a stronger, more equitable child care sector. This legislation is an essential step toward a much-needed child care system that meets the diverse needs of all children and families.”  Stephanie Schmit, Director of Child Care and Early Education, Center for Law and Social Policy (CLASP)

    Child Care for Every Family Network

    “Right now, this country is facing a serious child care crisis–parents are struggling to find or afford child care, child care workers are making poverty wages, and child care providers are struggling to keep their doors open and make ends meet. Republicans’ only proposal is to make this crisis even worse by cutting child care funding and putting more wealth in the hands of billionaires over supporting our families,” said Andrea Paluso and Erica Gallegos, Executive Directors of the Child Care for Every Family Network. “But there is another way. Senator Wyden and Warren’s Building Child Care for a Better Future Act will boost child care funding, instead of taking a hatchet to it. We are proud to endorse this critical bill that will invest in our child care supply, support the child care workforce, and help make child care easier to find and afford. The contrast couldn’t be clearer: support for care or support for cuts. Instead of non-stop Republican threats to cut child care, Congress must pass the Building Child Care for a Better Future Act.”

    Early Care & Education Consortium

    “As a national coalition of child care providers, education service providers, and state child care associations, ECEC is pleased to endorse the Building Child Care for a Better Future Act. This legislation recognizes that the child care workforce is the workforce behind the workforce—without well-qualified and compensated child care educators and staff, many parents cannot go to work with the comfort that their children are being educated and cared for in safe and healthy environments. Furthermore, the legislation takes needed steps to help provide support to providers that serve communities that are most in need of high-quality early education. The long-term investments proposed in the Building Child Care for a Better Future Act will better equip our nation’s child care system to serve all who rely on it every day, and support the continued growth of the American economy.” – Radha Mohan, Executive Director, Early Care & Education Consortium (ECEC)

    Family Forward Oregon

    “Child care is the workforce behind our workforce. It is essential infrastructure in our communities, and is an essential industry. We must fund child care just like libraries, schools, and other public services. When we invest in child care through the Building Child Care for a Better Future Act, we invest in our families, our economy and our future.” – Candice Vickers, Executive Director, Family Forward Oregon 

    National Women’s Law Center

    “At a time when President Trump and congressional Republicans are proposing dramatic cuts to child care, the Building Child Care for A Better Future Act provides meaningful investments that would make a real dent in addressing the child care crisis,” said Fatima Goss Graves, president and CEO of the National Women’s Law Center. “With families at a breaking point with the soaring costs of child care, we need real, sustained investment to make care more affordable and to invest in the early learning workforce. If Congress is serious about lowering child care costs, they’ll pass this bill instead of pretending that small tax credits—which provide only a fraction of relief that families need—are a real solution.”   

    Prevent Child Abuse America

    “Access to quality childcare alleviates parental stress, enabling parents to create positive home environments for their children,” saidMelissa Merrick, President and CEO of Chicago-based Prevent Child Abuse America. “This legislation, Building Child Care for a Better Future Act, addresses both the immediate needs of families, supporting working parents while strengthening the childcare workforce, and the broader goal of improving childcare access. When parents have the resources and supports they need to care for their children, we help parents foster positive home environments where their young children can thrive.”

    ZERO TO THREE

    “Child care is essential for parents who are continuing to struggle with long waitlists and skyrocketing costs. Providers are barely scraping by due to the ever-rising costs of providing safe and quality care,” said Samantha Cadet, Legislative Director for ZERO TO THREE. “ZERO TO THREE is proud to support the Building Child Care for a Better Future Act, which addresses the root issue of chronic underinvestment by increasing mandatory funding for child care so that states, tribes, and territories have the resources they need to build a child care infrastructure that works for everyone.”

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Consecutive El Niños are happening more often and the result is more devastating – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Zhengyao Lu, Researcher in Physical Geography, Lund University

    El Niño, a climate troublemaker, has long been one of the largest drivers of variability in the global climate. Every few years, the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean seesaws between warm (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases. This reshuffles rainfall patterns, unleashing floods, droughts and storms thousands of miles from the Pacific origin.

    The 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Niño events, for instance, brought catastrophic flooding to the eastern Pacific while plunging Africa, Australia and southeast Asia into severe droughts.

    These disruptions don’t just alter weather, but devastate crops, collapse fisheries, bleach coral reefs, fuel wildfires, and threaten human health. The 1997-98 El Niño alone caused an estimated US$5.7 trillion (£4.4 trillion) in global income losses.

    Now, something more alarming is unfolding: both El Niño and La Niña are lingering longer than ever before, which is amplifying their destructive potential.

    Traditionally, El Niño events lasted about a year, alternating with La Niña in an irregular cycle every two to seven years.

    And normally when an El Niño or La Niña event ends, the disturbance to global weather patterns gradually subsides. But when these anomalies persist or re-emerge, the damage compounds and complicates recovery efforts. For instance, a single-year El Niño-driven drought can challenge agricultural systems, but consecutive years of drought could overwhelm them.

    In recent decades, these climate patterns have been persisting longer and recurring more often. A striking example is the 2020-2023 La Niña, a rare “triple-dip” event that lasted for three years. Rather than returning to neutral conditions, these anomalies are prolonging devastation and making recovery increasingly difficult.

    In a recent study, my colleagues and I revealed that multi-year Enso (El Niño-southern oscillation, or both warm El Niño and cold La Niña) events have been steadily increasing over the past 7,000 years, and are now more frequent than ever. This is due to a fundamental shift in Earth’s climate system.

    Clear proof of this shift comes from ancient corals in the central Pacific. These fossilised time capsules preserve a climate record stretching back thousands of years. By analysing oxygen isotopes in their skeletons, scientists can reconstruct past ocean temperatures and Enso activity.

    What we’ve found is remarkable: in the early Holocene (7,000 years ago), single-year Enso events were the norm. But over time, multi-year events have become five times more common.

    To confirm this, we turned to sophisticated computer simulations that replicate Earth’s climate system. The latest advancements in these global climate models allow us to simulate Enso dynamics stretching back hundreds of millions of years, across vastly different climate conditions and continental arrangements.

    In our study, we used a group of models contributed by international research teams to track Enso evolution over millennia, incorporating factors such as ocean circulation, atmospheric conditions, vegetation changes and solar radiation. The results align with coral records: Enso events have grown more prolonged over time.

    Look at the graphs below. On the left are black circles which represent fossilised coral slice records (bigger circles contain data for longer periods). The increasing trend (blue dashed line) shows the ratio of multi-year Enso events to single-year events increasing over the past 7,000 years (a ratio of 0.5 means one multi-year Enso event for every two single-year events). On the right, climate model simulations also show this ratio increasing.

    The increasing trend (blue dashed lines) of mult-year ENSO occurrence over the last 7,000 years. Ancient coral reconstructions on the left, climate model simulations on the right.
    Lu et al. (2025)/Nature

    The role of Earth’s orbit and humans

    This trend of Enso events lasting longer started gradually in the Holocene and is linked to changes in the Pacific Ocean’s thermocline, which is the boundary between warm surface waters and cooler deep waters. Over millennia, the tropical Pacific’s thermocline has become shallower and more stratified, enabling more efficient interaction between the atmosphere and ocean that allow El Niño and La Niña events to persist for longer.

    The primary driver of this stratification has been the slow change in Earth’s orbit, which alters the distribution of solar energy our planet receives. These orbital variations have subtly influenced upper ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific, nudging Enso towards longer phases. This slow process has unfolded naturally, but now there’s a new and powerful force accelerating it: human-driven climate change.

    Greenhouse gas emissions, predominantly from burning fossil fuels, are turbocharging this trend. The extra heat trapped in the atmosphere and ocean is making conditions even more favourable for persistent Enso events, and possibly more intense. What was once a slow, natural evolution is now accelerating at an alarming rate. Unlike past climate shifts, this one is happening in our lifetimes, with consequences we can already see.

    The implications are staggering. If Enso events keep lasting longer, we can expect more frequent and prolonged droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, floods and back-to-back intense hurricane seasons driven by multi-year Enso. Agriculture, fisheries, water supplies and disaster response systems will face increasing strain. Coastal cities, already struggling with rising seas, could face even more destructive storm surges fuelled by extended El Niño conditions.

    This is less a scientific puzzle than a growing crisis. While we can’t change Earth’s orbit, we can cut carbon emissions, strengthen climate resilience efforts and prepare for more persistent extreme weather. The science is clear: El Niño and La Niña are sticking around longer, and their consequences will be felt across the globe. The time to act is now, before the next multi-year Enso shockwave hits.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Zhengyao Lu receives funding from the Swedish Research Council, FORMAS and the Crafoord Foundation.

    – ref. Consecutive El Niños are happening more often and the result is more devastating – new research – https://theconversation.com/consecutive-el-ninos-are-happening-more-often-and-the-result-is-more-devastating-new-research-251504

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: As Israel begins another assault in Gaza, Netanyahu is fighting his own war against the country’s legal system

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Leonie Fleischmann, Senior Lecturer in International Politics, City St George’s, University of London

    The Israel Defense Forces has launched a further major ground assault in Gaza – this time with the intention of taking and holding significant amounts of territory as a “security buffer”. This appears unlikely to endear the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, to many of the families of the remaining 59 Hamas hostages, who may well fear the worst for their loved ones.

    It’s a high-risk strategy on Netanyahu’s part. But the prime minister is already walking a political tightrope as he simultaneously attempts to bend his country’s legal system to his will.

    Thousands of Israelis have taken to the streets to protest the prime minister’s recent attempts to bring the country’s supreme court under government control. The saga started when he sacked the country’s most important spy chief, the head of Shin Bet, Ronen Bar, in mid-March.

    This was the first time a government had dismissed a serving head of Shin Bet, and the supreme court stepped in to freeze the order until it had the chance to hear opposition objections.

    The attorney-general, Gali Baharav-Miara, a vocal critic of Netanyahu, accused the prime minister of ignoring the law. This led the government to pass a no-confidence motion in her as well.

    Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, subsequently passed a law which would give the government the power to appoint new members of the supreme court.

    The move was criticised by the Israel Democracy Institute, which described the new law as a “broader shift toward subordinating legal and security institutions to political authority” in Israel. It certainly has the potential to undermine the country’s system of checks and balances which – as in many western democracies – rests largely on the separation of powers.

    Israel does not have a single written constitution. What it has is a set of “Basic Laws” which provide the rules of governance. Within these are checks and balances, which aim to prevent any one institution or individual from exercising untrammelled control. Putting the make-up of the supreme court into the hands of the government would threaten this basic democratic principle on which Israel has always operated.

    On March 19, Netanyahu posted on X from the prime ministerial account: “In America and Israel, when a strong right-wing leader wins, the leftist Deep State weaponizes the justice system to thwart the people’s will. They won’t win in either place!” He later removed the post and reposted the same thing from his personal account.

    The post linked his efforts to control the judiciary with the Trump administration’s loudly voiced campaign against state barriers to its power.

    But anyone who has followed Netanyahu’s decision-making in recent years will discern a pattern. Since being charged with bribery, fraud and breach of trust in 2019 (which he denies) he has done anything he can to try to gain control of the country’s judiciary – for his own political preservation.

    Netanyahu’s motivations

    At the same time, many critics believe Netanyahu’s conduct of the war in Gaza had been with one eye to prolonging hostilities to delay proceedings in his own trials. Now it appears that the Israeli prime minister is attempting a frontal assault on Israel’s judiciary.

    His decision to sack Bar came as the Shin Bet chief was supervising an investigation into allegations concerning, as he put it in a letter to the cabinet before his sacking: “Qatar’s involvement at the highest levels of Israeli decision-making, including the Prime Minister’s Office.”

    Equally questionable is the attempted ousting of Attorney-General Baharav-Miara, who is overseeing the criminal case against him. Replacing them with more compliant and loyal individuals would help ensure that Netanyahu and the policies of his government are protected.

    All of this drew a strong response from the former consul general of Israel in New York, Alon Pinkas. Writing in the opposition paper Haaretz on March 21, Pinkas argued that Israeli “democracy’s guardrails” are being brought “crashing down fast and furious by Netanyahu’s design”.

    He concluded that the only two remaining checks on Netanyahu’s power are “the supreme court and the Israeli public” – adding that the court can only act when it is permitted. “So the Israeli public becomes the only potentially effective check.”

    An active civil society is an important marker of democracy and my research shows that Israel has a strong history of protest and extra-parliamentary action across a range of social, economic and political issues.

    There has been a continuous stream of anti-Netanyahu protests in Israel since the “black flag protests” in 2020 in opposition to Netanyahu’s continuing in power despite facing serious criminal charges. The protests grew ever stronger, despite COVID safeguarding regulations.

    When the government attempted wide-ranging reforms which many critics feared would fundamentally weaken the independence of the judiciary, hundreds of thousands took to the streets weekend after weekend, forcing the government eventually to shelve its plans.



    Read more:
    Israel protests: Netanyahu delays judicial reforms over fears of ‘civil war’ – but deep fault-lines threaten future of democracy

    Since the start of the war in Gaza, the political focus of protests shifted to broad consensus in calling the government to do everything in its power to ensure the release of the October 7 hostages. Now the protests will focus more centrally back on the considerable public discontent with the prime minister himself.

    It remains to be seen, now, whether Alon Pinkas is right and whether the Israeli public can be an effective check against a leader who appears now to be governing solely in his own interests.

    Leonie Fleischmann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As Israel begins another assault in Gaza, Netanyahu is fighting his own war against the country’s legal system – https://theconversation.com/as-israel-begins-another-assault-in-gaza-netanyahu-is-fighting-his-own-war-against-the-countrys-legal-system-253568

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Would you join the resistance if stuck in an authoritarian regime? Here’s the psychology

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Magnus Linden, Associate Professor of Psychology, Lund University

    Female activist protesting with megaphone during a strike with group of demonstrator in background. Jacob Lund/Shuttestock

    Most of us like to believe we would have opposed the rise of Nazism in 1930s Germany. We may even like to imagine that we would have bravely fought for the resistance to Nazism in the 1940s. But would we? Our ability to take a stand may be put to the test as authoritarianism is increasing worldwide.

    All electoral democracies can transform into autocracies. These are governments that restrict political and civil rights, centralise executive power, manipulate elections and minimise the diversity of political views.

    In western democracies, a move toward autocracy is often led by would-be strongmen whose focus is to reinstate traditionalist values and nationalism. They typically target the free media, opponents and stigmatised social groups without moral compunction.

    Moves to deepen autocracy are always resisted, however. Depending on how autocratic a country is, this resistance will differ. Early in the autocratisation process, resistance is common within formal state institutions. It may be expressed in overt actions, including public statements condemning government actions.

    In closed autocracies, however, resistance is exercised more by covert social movements. One reason for this is the personal risk connected to resistance. In Vladimir Putin´s autocratic Russia, for example, political dissenters know they risk being either murdered or imprisoned if they’re caught.

    In the United States, on the other hand, where the new administration has taken steps that increase the level of autocracy, dissonant views may effectively be silenced because of fear of retribution. Many people are scared of losing their jobs or having their companies harmed.

    Psychological profile

    The science about the choices made by those who resist autocratic regimes, and the strategies they apply in resisting, is evolving.

    Interviews with resisters in Myanmar suggest that personal moral commitments, being compassionate and feeling compelled to act when witnessing violations of rights, are all factors motivating resistance.

    These factors are also evident in those who helped Jews survive during the Holocaust. For example, studies suggest that rescuers were more empathic and morally conscious than others. They had essentially been socialised into being ethical in childhood and were also more inclusive of people from other social groups.

    People who join resistance groups also tend to be more open to taking risks. That makes sense: the more driven you are by a need to feel safe, the less likely you are to engage in anything that could jeopardise that – even if your moral compass suggests you should.

    Beyond resisting autocratic steps, research on moral courage in everyday settings shows that believing you can succeed, that you have the necessary knowledge and skills, is an important predictor for intervention when people witness norm violations, whether this means addressing a perpetrator or protecting a victim.

    Leadership characteristics

    That said, it’s not all down to individual followers. No autocratic leader can gain power without influencing their followers. The same is true of resistance: resistance cannot exist without effective leadership.

    Research suggests that followers are influenced by leaders who create a positive ethical climate, which in turn influences their own ethical behaviour.

    For fighting autocracy, one important aspect of this process is to communicate that inclusive moral values, such as universalism (the idea that things like liberty, justice, fraternity and equality should apply to everyone) and benevolence (helping, forgiving, being responsible) are a prominent part of the group’s identity.

    Members of the French resistance group Maquis in La Tresorerie, September 14 1944, Boulogne.

    For example, when the Danish Jews were persecuted by the Nazis in 1943, representatives of morally-grounded institutions, including bodies representing the Protestant clergy and hospital physicians, started to actively resist the regime. They became effective leaders as they were already in jobs perceived to be morally “committed”, and people trusted their judgement.

    Research on nonviolent resistance also shows that strong resistance organisations, and their leaders, tend to embrace diversity among people. And when they are successful, they often include the pillars in society that have the power to disrupt, such as military forces or economic elites.

    Research on the underground railroad, the network of activists helping enslaved people escape to the northern states in America or Canada, has shown that influential church leaders played a crucial role. They refused to follow federal legislation that obliged them to help slave owners capture enslaved people that had escaped.

    Knowing that ethical role models are taking a stand is important for a resistance movement’s followers. Stanley Milgram gave evidence for this in his much-debated psychological obedience studies, showing that 90% of the participants who had been asked to give others electrical shocks stopped immediately if two assistant teachers stopped first.

    Building resistance

    In a world where autocracy is on the rise, how can we foster traits in people that promote appropriate forms of resistance?

    Teaching others about morally courageous figures can work, but heroism is not the key for all learners. The science suggests a number of other – perhaps surprising – objectives which can move ordinary people to stand up for democracy. In particular, educational initiatives that boost contact between different groups may be useful.

    To be able to resist autocratic regimes, and help people who are persecuted under them, we ultimately need empathy for people who are different to ourselves. There’s plenty of research showing that white people who move to more diverse areas, within cities, for example, become less racist.

    So perhaps the more time we spend with people who are unlike us, the more we are growing our potential as resistance fighters.

    We may also want to boost our self-efficacy, or self-confidence. One technique is to repeatedly expose ourselves to situations that evoke fear, but which force us to act courageously, such as standing up to bullies. This is a crucial part of ethical police training, for example.

    Learning about moral values can also help build confidence. Educators who are given the challenge to teach good moral behaviour can do this effectively by focusing on universal principles – rather than those that are based on culture or social class – such as treating others how we wish to be treated.

    These are building blocks for a group identity which favours empathy with all and expectations of good behaviour.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Would you join the resistance if stuck in an authoritarian regime? Here’s the psychology – https://theconversation.com/would-you-join-the-resistance-if-stuck-in-an-authoritarian-regime-heres-the-psychology-252533

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Doom loops’ are accelerating climate change – but we can break them

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jack Marley, Environment + Energy Editor, UK edition

    Surasak Jailak/Shutterstock

    Vicious cycles are accelerating climate change. One is happening at the north pole, where rising temperatures caused by record levels of fossil fuel combustion are melting more and more sea ice.

    Indeed, the extent of Arctic winter sea ice in March 2025 was the lowest ever recorded. This decline in sea ice means the Earth reflects less of the Sun’s energy back into space. So, more climate change leads to less sea ice – and more climate change.

    Human behaviour is not immune to this dynamic either, according to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA). It identified another troubling feedback loop: demand for coal rose 1% globally in 2024 off the back of intense heatwaves in China and India, which spurred a frenzy for air-conditioners and excess fuel to power them.

    The need to cool ourselves, and briefly escape the consequences of climate change, is driving more climate change. Thankfully, there are ways to break these cycles and form greener habits. Today, we’ll look at one in particular.

    This roundup of The Conversation’s climate coverage comes from our award-winning weekly climate action newsletter. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed.

    The Sun can cool you down

    “As the climate crisis deepens, close to half of the world’s people have little defence against deadly heat,” says Radhika Khosla, an associate professor of urban sustainability at the University of Oxford.



    Read more:
    COP28: countries have pledged to cut emissions from cooling – here’s how to make it happen

    “At the same time, energy demand from cooling – by those who can afford it – could more than double by 2050.”

    If wealthy countries paid the enormous climate finance debt they owe the developing world, it could help finance the closing of this gap. And thankfully, advancements in renewable energy technology mean no one should need to contribute to a spike in fossil fuel use just to keep cool.



    Read more:
    Wealthy nations owe climate debt to Africa – funds that could help cities grow

    “The absurdity of resorting to coal to power air conditioners … is difficult to miss”, say a team of engineers and energy experts at Nottingham Trent University and Coventry University, led by Tom Rogers. They recommend rooftop solar panels instead, which can soak up sunshine during heatwaves and turn it into electricity for air-conditioning units.

    “Rooftop solar can also reduce demand for cooling by keeping buildings in the shade,” the team say. “A study conducted by Arizona State University found that even a modest group of solar panels that shade about half a roof can lead to anything from 2% to 13% reduction in cooling demand, depending on factors such as location, roof type and insulation levels.”



    Read more:
    Rising temperatures mean more air conditioning which means more electricity is needed – rooftop solar is a perfect fit

    Of course, solar panels are less helpful for powering air conditioners in the evening, when lots of people turn them on after work or school.

    “Researchers in Australia have proposed a clever solution to address this imbalance, by programming air-conditioning units to work in tandem with solar systems to pre-cool buildings before people arrive home,” Rogers and his colleagues add.

    There is huge untapped potential for generating electricity from rooftop solar – even in the dreary UK. It could ensure that future heatwaves are a boon for solar energy, not coal power.

    “Consider the possibilities for Nottingham and Coventry, two cities in England’s Midlands where we work,” they say.

    “If Nottingham were to maximise its rooftop potential, all those panels could generate nearly 500 megawatts (MW) of electricity, about the same as a medium-sized gas power plant. Coventry has greater potential, with 700MW.

    “These capacities would equate to nearly one-third of Nottingham’s electricity demand and almost half of Coventry’s – from their rooftops alone.”

    Doom loops

    Installing solar panels on top of buildings worldwide will need massive investment in equipment and training. It will require new means of incentivising the uptake of this technology and, as mentioned earlier, the redistribution of wealth to allow low-emitting but highly vulnerable nations to make the switch.

    But there are likely to be virtuous cycles as well as vicious ones. Once a certain threshold has been crossed, like the price and capacity of batteries or the number of homes with heat pumps installed, “a domino effect of rapid changes” takes effect such that green alternatives swiftly become the established norm.



    Read more:
    Climate ‘tipping points’ can be positive too – our report sets out how to engineer a domino effect of rapid changes

    However, the prospect of harmonising these efforts across borders butts against a trend moving in the opposite direction. As the world warms, relations between nations are becoming more fraught and war, trade tensions and internal strife are obscuring the universal threat of climate change.

    A Trump yard sign during the 2024 election campaign.
    Dlbillings_Photography/Shutterstock

    Climate risk expert Laurie Laybourn and earth system scientist James Dyke, both at the University of Exeter, say that extreme weather in 2022 caused crop failures that made food more expensive and stoked headline inflation rates. Climate-sceptic Donald Trump made hay with these high prices in the 2024 US election.

    “The risk is that this ‘doom loop’ runs faster and faster and ultimately derails our ability to phase out fossil fuels fast enough to avoid the worst climate consequences,” they say.



    Read more:
    A ‘doom loop’ of climate change and geopolitical instability is beginning

    However, Laybourn and Dyke are not wholly pessimistic. History shows that periods of instability and crisis like the one we are living through also provide fertile ground for positive change, they argue, and the chance to accelerate virtuous circles.

    “For example, out of the crises of the interwar period and the devastation of the second world war came legal protections for human rights, universal welfare systems and decolonisation.”

    – ref. ‘Doom loops’ are accelerating climate change – but we can break them – https://theconversation.com/doom-loops-are-accelerating-climate-change-but-we-can-break-them-253457

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Replacing gas vehicles with electric cars could prevent new cases of childhood asthma

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Harshit Gujral, Ph.D. Student, Department of Computer Science, University of Toronto

    Up to one-third of all new asthma cases each year are attributed to the harmful air pollutants that are emitted by gas-powered automobiles.

    To address this, our recent study has found that replacing around half of all gas-powered vehicles with electric vehicles could be sufficient to minimize childhood asthma cases linked to pollution from vehicle exhausts.

    As researchers studying the intersection of transportation, climate change and public health, we wanted to understand whether electric vehicle sales were having any impact on human health. Given the growing electric vehicle market in the United States, we investigated the impact this growth is having on population health.

    We chose childhood asthma as a proxy due to its widespread impact on the population. Around five million American children suffered from asthma in 2019. This statistic hasn’t changed considerably since then.

    Numerous studies have shown that exposure to air pollutants such as nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter, which are emitted from the tailpipe of gas-powered automobiles when they burn fossil fuels, is linked with an increased risk of developing asthma. Our study builds on this by examining the number of gas-powered and electric vehicles on the road, and the number of new childhood asthma cases annually.

    Numerous studies have found a link between gas-powered automobiles and increased asthma risk.
    (Shutterstock)

    Examining vehicle sales

    We used publicly available data on childhood asthma from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Then, we built a burden-of-disease model to isolate new cases of childhood asthma that were linked to traffic-related air pollution. We included data collected between 2013 and 2019 from all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

    We found that for every 1,000 new gas-powered vehicles sold, there was one new case of childhood asthma. Our research revealed that replacing approximately 21 per cent of these sales with electric vehicles appears to be sufficient to halt rising asthma rates caused by new vehicle sales. However, this number varied depending on the state and various factors — such as population density and the number of existing gas-powered vehicles on the road.

    For instance, in some states, replacing just seven per cent of gas car sales with electric vehicles might be enough to halt rising asthma rates caused by new vehicle sales. But in other states, 42 per cent of new car sales had to be electric vehicles in order to have any impact.

    States with a higher population density and a larger proportion of older, gas-powered vehicles on the road would likely see the greatest health gains from switching to electric vehicles.

    Our findings indicate there’s already a measurable public health benefit being seen in the U.S. from the increase of electric vehicles on the road. This impact would be profound in states with a zero-emission vehicle program, because 63 per cent of all new electric vehicles were sold in states with these mandates between 2013 and 2019.

    In 2021 (at the time of this study), 10 American states had rules promoting electric vehicles, including: California, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland, Maine, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island and Vermont.

    Our findings underscore the urgent need for policies that accelerate the replacement of older, fossil-fuel powered vehicles with electric vehicles. It will also be important for policymakers to find ways of making electric vehicles more accessible for lower-income households, as they’re disproportionately affected by traffic-related air pollution.

    Not the only solution

    We don’t want readers to assume that putting more electric vehicles on the road is the only solution for improving children’s health.

    First, it’s important to note that a reduction in childhood asthma rates only manifests when electric vehicles are sold as replacements for gas-powered vehicles. This means that when people buy an electric vehicle as a second car, it won’t be linked to the same health benefits.

    Second, electric vehicles — as with any other vehicle — still contribute to air pollution emissions in other ways. This is why our research doesn’t point towards completely replacing all gas-powered automobiles with electric vehicles for the sake of public health.

    Replacing half of gas-powered cars with electric vehicles appears to minimize childhood asthma caused by traffic-related air pollution.
    (Shutterstock)

    While a 36-77 per cent fleet share of electric vehicles should minimize the asthma burden due to reducing the amount of nitrogen dioxide emitted from gas-powered automobiles, this doesn’t eliminate all the pollutants that are produced by vehicles.

    For example, particulate matter from brake wear, tire wear and road dust are all linked with adverse health impacts — such as respiratory and cardiovascular illnesses. The actual reduction in pollution also depends on driving behaviours, as plug-in hybrids can operate on both gas and electricity.

    Alternative forms of transportation are still important for reducing the total number of cars on the road and ultimately improving public health.

    For electric vehicles to be truly beneficial, it’s also important to ensure the electricity needed to charge their batteries comes from clean sources. If the electricity comes from coal or other fossil-fuel-based sources, then we’re just moving the pollution from the urban centres to communities living near power plants.

    Other critical limitations of electric vehicle technology include battery recycling, social injustices in acquiring raw materials for battery production and restrictions on the right to repair.

    The bottom line is that while electric vehicles are needed to move away from fossil fuel-based vehicles, they aren’t the whole solution. We need to promote and invest more in public transit and biking infrastructure to improve air quality and public health.

    This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC, RGPIN-2019-07042) and the Data Sciences Institute at the University of Toronto (grant no. DSIDSFY3R1P22).

    Meredith Franklin received funding from NSCERC for this research.

    Steve Easterbrook received funding from NSCERC and UofT DSI for this research.

    – ref. Replacing gas vehicles with electric cars could prevent new cases of childhood asthma – https://theconversation.com/replacing-gas-vehicles-with-electric-cars-could-prevent-new-cases-of-childhood-asthma-252244

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s trade war represents a big opportunity for Canadian Conservatives

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Charlie Buck, PhD Candidate, Politics, University of Toronto

    A well-known saying in politics is to never let a good crisis go to waste. The governing Liberals have embraced this idea, calling a snap election for April 28. Their decision came amid United States President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs on Canadian goods and threats of annexation.

    This moment presents a rare opportunity for Canadian Conservatives to rethink their approach. They can do this by tapping into their own party’s history of opposing American domination over Canada.

    Canadians are often presented as mild-mannered patriots. But Trump’s mockery of Canadian sovereignty has upended that perception.

    A recent Angus Reid poll found a surge in national pride. The percentage of Canadians who were “very proud” to be Canadian jumped from 34 to 44. At hockey games, Canadians are booing the American national anthem. And in grocery stores, shoppers are boycotting American products in favour of domestic goods.



    Read more:
    Trump tariffs have sparked a ‘Buy Canadian’ surge, but keeping the trend alive faces hurdles

    Once the party of anti-Americanism

    This rising nationalism is an opening for Conservatives to draw on their own history.

    Up until the 1980s, Canadian conservatism was the ideology most closely tied to anti-Americanism. From the United Empire Loyalists to John A. MacDonald’s National Policy, conservatism was about resisting American control.

    Robert Borden’s 1911 election win, for example, was fuelled by nationalist opposition to free trade with the U.S. Borden’s motto, evoking MacDonald, was: “Keep Canada for the Canadians.”

    Conservatives were also the party of Britishness. They supported the monarchy, the Red Ensign flag featuring the Union Jack and a strong central government. In contrast, the Liberals were the party of continentalism, hoping to achieve further economic and cultural integration with the U.S.

    This dynamic reversed in the 1980s with the rise of neoliberalism. During the 1988 election, the Conservatives under Brian Mulroney, not John Turner’s Liberals, favoured free trade. The Liberal campaign even ran a memorable ad warning that free trade would erase the Canadian-U.S. border.

    Since then, Canadian Conservatives have often been accused of wanting to “Americanize” Canada. Conservatives favour an elected Senate modelled on its U.S. equivalent. Economically, they mirror the market fundamentalism of American Republicans.

    On foreign policy matters, Conservatives also align closely with American interests. When Prime Minister Jean Chretien refused to join the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, it was met with strong criticism by opposition leader Stephen Harper.

    Canadian uniqueness

    Trump’s attack on Canadian sovereignty creates a chance for Canadian conservatism to return to its nationalist roots. Classical Canadian Tory thinkers — from George Grant to Donald Creighton, John Farthing and W. L. Morton — espoused a strong strain of anti-Americanism that animated all of their work. Indeed, it was this defence of Canadian uniqueness that defined their conservatism.



    Read more:
    Facing annexation threats, should Canadians lament for a nation — like George Grant did in 1963?

    If there is one lesson to be taught from their work, it’s that Conservatives must champion Canadian identity in the face of American aggression.

    Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre should heed this lesson. He has pledged to “put Canada first” and continue the Conservative legacy of “warding off American designs to dominate our continent.” Yet he seems more eager to tear down Liberal Leader Mark Carney than to defend Canada from Trump.

    These pro-Canada sentiments can’t just come from the leader. Nor should they be a short-term election strategy — they must represent a long-term vision.

    The current crisis is an opportunity for the intellectual leaders of the conservative movement in Canada to reorient their ideology away from the Americanization of Canada. They can best do this by drawing from the tradition of British-style Toryism that defined the conservative ideology for the first century of Canadian nationhood.

    Canadians are hungry for a party that celebrates Canadian patriotism and that builds up, rather than tears down, Canada’s heritage. They want a party that stands up to the American bully and strengthens national security by properly funding the country’s military.

    Dialing it down

    That means Poilievre must tone down his libertarian instincts in favour of the national collective good. Uninspiring commitments like increasing the contribution limit for tax-free savings accounts doesn’t match the required urgency. Hundreds of thousands of Canadians are worried they won’t have a job or the money to contribute to a tax-free savings account due to this trade war.

    Market capitalism and the free flow of goods and people across borders creates wealth, but it also makes Canada more economically dependent on America.

    Defunding the CBC might make good economic sense. However, it may also weaken Canadians’ sense of national identity and drive them further into the grips of American cultural influence.



    Read more:
    From dog whistles to blaring horns, Poilievre makes his case

    Poilievre, and the conservative movement more broadly, should consider rekindling some of the anti-Americanism that has long been a key component of Canadian conservatism. Doing so might allow his party to seize upon Canadians’ renewed sense of patriotism and result in a Conservative win on April 28.

    There might be a few Trump-loving conservatives alienated by this approach. But there are far more moderate voters to be gained by fighting for Canada under a truly conservative banner.

    As the saying goes, don’t let a good crisis go to waste.

    Charlie Buck receives funding from the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. Trump’s trade war represents a big opportunity for Canadian Conservatives – https://theconversation.com/trumps-trade-war-represents-a-big-opportunity-for-canadian-conservatives-252997

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Love in the age of conspiracy: 5 tips to deal with disinformation and political polarization in relationships

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kara Fletcher, Associate Professor, Faculty of Social Work, University of Regina

    The current socio-political environment has created a context where conspiracy narratives about COVID-19, vaccines, election fraud and other misinformation appear to be flourishing everywhere. (Shutterstock)

    If you’re in a relationship with someone who believes in a conspiracy theory, you might find yourself feeling like you don’t know the person you’re in a relationship with anymore. And you might be thinking about whether things will get better or wondering if you should leave them.

    The World Health Organization has declared we are living in an infodemic, where misinformation is spreading like an infectious disease. A Leger opinion poll conducted in November 2023 found that nearly 80 per cent of Canadian respondents and almost 85 per cent of Americans believed at least one conspiracy theory.

    While older adults often struggle to detect online misinformation, the poll found people between the ages of 18 and 34 were also likely to believe some conspiracies. Recent research has also found youth aged 13-17 are more susceptible to misinformation than adults.

    The current socio-political environment has created a context where conspiracy narratives about COVID-19, vaccines, election fraud and other misinformation appear to be flourishing everywhere. However, there are steps you can take if you see your partner going down a conspiratorial rabbit hole.

    No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.

    Read more from Quarter Life:

    • How to handle difficult conversations in your early career, from salary negotiation to solving conflict

    • How to make a change in your life – and stick to it

    • How to set healthy boundaries

    Conspiratorial beliefs

    Conspiracy theories refer to beliefs relating to secret plots orchestrated by groups who are considered to hold power and have bad intentions. Misinformation refers to information that contradicts the best expert evidence available at the time. Lastly, political polarization describes ideological conflict between two (or more) opposing groups. Political polarization can create antipathy and prejudice among groups that don’t agree with one another.

    One of the authors of this article, Kara Fletcher, is a couples and family therapist. In her practice, she has noticed an increase in clients sharing their confusion and hopelessness at their partner’s gradual adoption of conspiracy theories and misinformation. They’ve shared that their partners’ viewpoints initially became more conservative and then escalated into believing misinformation and conspiracy theories over time.

    Clients have reported that their romantic partner has started to follow movements like QAnon, a far-right American political conspiracy theory. Or, more insidious and less obvious initially, their partners have started to consume podcasts like Infowars, Joe Rogan’s podcast or conservative websites like the Daily Wire. These podcasts and news sites have all come under scrutiny for spreading misinformation and conspiracy theories.

    Our research team has undertaken multiple projects to better understand the impact of misinformation and conspiracy theories on couple well-being. While existing research is slim, there is some evidence of relationship disruption and harm.

    We are currently conducting a scoping review of studies assessing the impact of QAnon involvement on interpersonal relationships. Participants in one research study described QAnon as a “malignant force in their relationship” which caused distance and distress. Participants however, reported a desire to understand their loved one and attempt to heal the relationship.

    Similarly, emerging research also indicates that loved ones experienced emotional distress and a negative impact on their relationship since their “QPerson” started following the beliefs of QAnon. Anecdotally, the Reddit forum QAnonCasualties has more than 280,000 members.

    A Leger opinion poll conducted in November 2023 found that nearly 80 per cent of Canadian respondents believed at least one conspiracy theory.
    (Shutterstock)

    What you can do

    So, what can you do if you just don’t recognize your romantic partner anymore? If this sounds like a familiar experience for you, or someone you love, here are a few tips to try:

    1. Keep your feet on the grass. Stay connected to family and friends. Living with or dating someone who espouses conspiracy beliefs and misinformation can be confusing and disorienting. You may start to question your own belief system when your partner is so convinced of theirs. Maintain your social supports and relationships outside of your romantic relationship. This will help keep you connected with other viewpoints and ideas and ground you.

    2. Model and maintain a healthy social media and news diet. If your partner is only listening to far-right news sources, put on the radio, leave a newspaper on the table. Expose them gently to a wide range of ideas, while maintaining your own exposure to legitimate news sources.

    3. Try not to shame and blame. Emotional arguments do not work and may cause the opposite intended effect. Your partner may feel that you are unsupportive and judgmental and not understand your well-intentioned concern. Individuals who feel judged for their beliefs may double down on adherence to those beliefs while under pressure.

    4. Prevention. Where possible, encourage and practise critical thinking skills. One study found that teaching critical thinking to college students for a period of three months lowered students’ beliefs in conspiracy theories. Teaching critical thinking appears to be the best inoculation against adopting conspiracy theories and misinformation.

    5. Get support if needed. You may love your partner deeply but find navigating this situation alone to be too much. You can speak to a therapist or connect with supports such as the Evolve Program and Life After Hate.

    As our research develops, we hope to offer support that will bring couples with these experiences together to find solutions for their divergent belief systems and experiences.

    Kara Fletcher receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the Saskatchewan Health Research Foundation.

    Carlos Alberto Rosas-Jiménez and Jiaxing Li do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Love in the age of conspiracy: 5 tips to deal with disinformation and political polarization in relationships – https://theconversation.com/love-in-the-age-of-conspiracy-5-tips-to-deal-with-disinformation-and-political-polarization-in-relationships-251797

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada’s labour market is failing racialized immigrant women, requiring an urgent policy response

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Marshia Akbar, Director of the BMO Newcomer Workforce Integration Lab and Research Lead on Labour Migration at the CERC Migration and Integration Program at TMU, Toronto Metropolitan University

    Despite Canada’s commitment to gender equity through human rights legislation and policies, the country ranked eighth in gender pay disparity among 43 nations in 2018.

    While gender wage gaps affect all women, they are particularly pronounced for those from marginalized communities. A 2015 United Nations Human Rights report raised concerns about “the persisting inequalities between women and men” in Canada, highlighting the gender pay gap and its disproportionate impact on low-income, racialized and Indigenous women.

    Historical data reflects the persistence of these inequalities. The 2001 and 2016 censuses reveal that labour market inequalities in Canada have remained both gendered and racialized over the past two decades.

    Racialized immigrant women are among the most disadvantaged groups in Canada’s labour force. They experience higher unemployment rates and lower incomes than racialized men, non-racialized men and non-racialized women, regardless of whether they are immigrants or Canadian-born.

    Building on this evidence, my recent analysis of the 2021 census further illustrates the ongoing disparities racialized immigrant women face in the Canadian labour market — even among those with university education.

    A triple disadvantage

    As of 2021, immigrants comprised about 23 per cent of Canada’s population, with racialized women making up 36 per cent of all immigrants. Their presence plays a critical role in Canada’s demographic composition and economic growth.

    However, systemic barriers continue to limit their economic potential. Racialized immigrant women face a triple disadvantage due to their race, immigrant status and gender, making it harder for them to secure employment.

    Data from 2021 highlights these disparities. Racialized immigrant women aged 25 to 54 had the lowest labour force participation and employment rates, and the highest unemployment rates.

    The labour force participation rate measures the percentage of the working-age population that is either employed or actively seeking work, while the employment rate is the percentage of the working-age population that is employed.

    The labour force participation rate of racialized immigrant women was 77 per cent, the lowest among all immigrant groups. Their employment rate was 68 per cent, significantly lower than that of racialized immigrant men (82 per cent) and non-racialized immigrant women (74 per cent).

    Additionally, their unemployment rate reached 12 per cent, exceeding racialized immigrant men by seven percentage points and non-racialized immigrant women by three percentage points.

    In contrast, Canadian-born women face fewer employment disparities between racialized and non-racialized groups. This suggests that labour market barriers are particularly harsh for immigrant women of colour.

    Wage gaps reflect the triple disadvantage

    Wage disparities in Canada vary significantly across demographic lines, with immigrant women facing the greatest disadvantages.

    In 2020, racialized immigrant women aged 15 and over had the lowest median employment income of $30,400. Their earnings lagged behind racialized immigrant men, and non-racialized immigrant men and women.

    While higher education improves earnings, it does not eliminate these disparities.

    University-educated racialized immigrant women earned an average of $41,200 in 2020, compared to $57,200 for their male counterparts — a gender wage gap of 28 per cent.

    Additionally, they earned 19 per cent less than non-racialized immigrant women ($50,800) and 32 per cent less than non-racialized Canadian-born women ($60,400). This placed them at the bottom of the earnings hierarchy.

    These figures indicate that educational attainment alone is not enough to overcome the structural barriers that limit economic opportunities for racialized immigrant women. More deliberate actions are needed.

    The road ahead

    Despite initiatives like the Racialized Newcomer Women Pilot, which the federal government launched in 2018 to support career advancement for racialized newcomer women, employment and wage disparities persist.

    Research has identified several structural factors that limit their access to meaningful economic opportunities. These barriers include gender biases, institutional racism, disproportionate caregiving responsibilities, the non-recognition of foreign credentials, gender gaps in skill development and job transitions, and occupational segregation.

    To address these challenges, future research should adopt a problem-solving approach to address the root causes. Simultaneously, a comprehensive policy response is needed to tackle the systemic barriers in the labour market.

    Targeted solutions are needed to help racialized immigrant women. Strengthening credential recognition, for instance, can help employers assess transferable skills across countries. Implementing equitable hiring practices and workplace integration policies are also essential.

    Digital technology and artificial intelligence can also help eliminate bias in hiring and job matching. Settlement programs should account for the intersecting identities of racialized immigrant women to provide tailored support.

    Most importantly, it’s crucial to recognize that ensuring equitable access to meaningful employment is not only vital for advancing gender and racial equity, but also essential for unlocking Canada’s full economic potential.

    Marshia Akbar receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. Canada’s labour market is failing racialized immigrant women, requiring an urgent policy response – https://theconversation.com/canadas-labour-market-is-failing-racialized-immigrant-women-requiring-an-urgent-policy-response-251792

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Europe: AMERICA/HAITI – Mirebalais: Two nuns killed by armed gangs

    Source: Agenzia Fides – MIL OSI

    Thursday, 3 April 2025

    Port-au-Prince (Agenzia Fides) – Two nuns of the “Little Sisters of Saint Therese of the Child Jesus” were murdered in Mirebalais, in central Haiti, by members of armed gangs who infiltrated the area since last Monday. The Archbishop of Port-au-Prince, Max Leroy Mésidor, confirmed this to local media, adding: “This is a huge loss for the community.”Sister Evanette Onezaire and Sister Jeanne Voltaire were killed on Monday when the city of Mirebalais was attacked by the “Viv Ansanm” coalition of criminal gangs. Attacks also targeted shops, police stations, and a prison, from which more than 500 inmates reportedly escaped.According to local media reports, the two nuns were working at the school in Mirebalais and had taken refuge in a house with a girl during the attacks. However, members of the armed gangs entered the building, opened fire, and killed the two nuns and all the other people present.To this day, the situation in Mirebalais remains chaotic. The government delegate to the region, Frédérique Occéan, said that the city’s streets are littered with corpses that emit a foul odor. Municipal authorities are reportedly absent, and many residents have fled.Haitian media also reported that armed gangs had also attacked the Mirebalais University Hospital in recent hours. Yesterday, thousands took to the streets in the capital to protest the deteriorating situation and the increase in gang attacks.The protests also included displaced people living in camps near Port-au-Prince, forced to flee their homes, as well as residents of the Canapé-Vert neighborhoods (where the population is fighting back against the threat of armed groups attempting to enter the area), Turgeau, Carrefour-Feuilles, Pacot, Debussy, Delmas, and neighboring areas. Haitian police used tear gas to disperse the crowd gathered in front of the “Ville d’Accueil,” the headquarters of the Presidential Transitional Council (CPT) and the government.Last year alone, violence in Haiti left at least 5,600 dead (a thousand more than the previous year), over 2,000 injured, and approximately 1,500 kidnapped, according to the United Nations. Just hours before the outbreak of violence in Mirebalais, the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Türk, reported that between July and February, at least 4,239 people were killed and 1,356 wounded in Haiti with weapons illegally imported from abroad, despite the embargo imposed by the UN Security Council. (F.B.) (Agenzia Fides, 3/4/2025)
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    MIL OSI Europe News –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Fenton to receive first ever ceremonial mace to celebrate city’s Centenary

    Source: City of Stoke-on-Trent

    Published: Thursday, 3rd April 2025

    Fenton is set to make history with the unveiling of its first-ever ceremonial mace as part of Stoke-on-Trent’s 100th-anniversary celebrations.

    Students from the University of Staffordshire have created the first-ever ceremonial mace for Fenton.

    When the six towns united as the Stoke-on-Trent Federation (the forerunner of Stoke-on-Trent being granted city status) in 1910, Fenton was the only one not to hand down a piece of civic regalia.

    More than a century later, this new ceremonial mace will give the town its own celebration of its heritage, culture and people.

    Students from the BA (Hons) Product Furniture and Ceramics and MA Ceramics courses were given the opportunity to design a mace that honours Fenton’s historic ties to the early development of the ceramic industry.

    After an intense process, the judging panel found it impossible to select a single winner. Instead, two standout teams were asked to collaborate – bringing together their design and engineering expertise to create the ultimate Fenton Mace.

    The mace will be officially unveiled to the public at Fenton Town Hall before a special parade transports it to Stoke Town Hall, where it will take its place among the city’s civic regalia.

    Highlights are:

    • Friday 4 April: preview the new Fenton Mace – 10am-4pm, Ballroom, Fenton Town Hall
    • Saturday 5 April: Celebrate the creation of the Fenton Mace – begins with a blessing at Christ Church, Fenton at 10am

    Lord Mayor of Stoke-on-Trent, Councillor Lyn Sharpe: “I’m so proud to be Lord Mayor of this amazing city, and it’s a huge honour to see my hometown of Fenton finally receive its own civic recognition.

    “The students have put so much thought into the design, from the coat of arms to the forget-me-nots that symbolise Fenton as the ‘forgotten town’ of Arnold Bennett’s books.

    “But we know Fenton is far from forgotten, and this mace will stand as a proud representation of the town for the next 100 years and beyond.”

    Neil Brownsword, Professor of Ceramics at University of Staffordshire, said: “The Fenton Mace project has been great for students to reconnect to local histories that shaped the characteristics of Fenton. They have done a fantastic job of combining traditional references and symbolism through a contemporary lens, using a range of materials sponsored by local businesses.

    “The technical expertise of these companies, alongside the challenges of working as a team have been hugely beneficial in expanding their professionalism and problem solving through the design process. It’s a great honour for the mace that the students have designed and created is another valuable contribution to Fenton’s rich history.”

    BA (Hons) Product, Furniture, Ceramics student Maddie Sturmey said: “It’s been an honour to be a part of this prestigious occasion and to have had the opportunity to design and create the Fenton mace. We are really excited to showcase what we have been working so hard to achieve. We hope the people of Fenton love it as much as we do.”

    The project has been made possible through support from sponsors including Valentine Clays, KMF Metal, AJ Philpott, and CJ Skelhorne Jewellers, with additional contributions from Duchess China 1888 and Lee Price.

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: From Tiffany earrings to mobile phones – this is what happens when you swallow something you shouldn’t

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam Taylor, Professor of Anatomy, Lancaster University

    Even small items, such as earrings or keys, can become lodged in the body. Anzay/ Shutterstock

    A man in Florida recently visited a Tiffany & Co jewellery store posing as a buyer for a professional US athlete. While viewing the items, together worth well over £1 million, the thief tried to grab them and run from the store.

    The ensuing struggle saw one diamond ring get dropped – but the thief still made off with two pairs of diamond earrings valued at £600,000. In a bid to avoid arrest, the suspect consumed a different kind of “Breakfast at Tiffany’s” – swallowing the jewellery. After he was later taken into custody some 340 miles away, he was quoted as saying: “Am I going to be charged for what is in my stomach?”

    This certainly isn’t the first time a thief has hoped that swallowing stolen valuables would help them get away with their crime. One of the UK’s most notorious jewel thieves, whose exploits were captured in the ITV series Joan, also consumed jewels in order to steal them.

    But while in this recent instance the stolen jewels were recovered after naturally passing through the thief’s body, this isn’t always the case when things are swallowed that shouldn’t be. Foreign body ingestion, as it’s called, accounts for approximately 1,500 deaths per year in the US alone.

    Although most of the time, ingested foreign bodies pass naturally, around 10-20% of cases require endoscopic retrieval (a camera and small tools entering your mouth to get to your stomach) – and 1% require emergency surgery. In adults, the most commonly ingested foreign bodies are fish or chicken bones. In children, it’s coins, button batteries and toy parts.

    Small items, such as earrings, aren’t too difficult for the body to pass if swallowed accidentally or on purpose. This is because the oesophagus, which carries food to the stomach, is up to 3cm in diameter.



    Read more:
    Weird and wonderful things lost then found inside the human body

    But if objects are too large and get stuck in the oesophagus, they can tear and perforate it. A tear to the oesophagus requires immediate medical intervention – without emergency care, this tear has a mortality rate of up to 40%.

    The stomach, a J-shaped sac, has a much larger diameter than the oesophagus. It then connects to the small intestines and subsequently the large intestines. But because of the stomach’s unique shape and the way it tightly narrows as it joins the small intestines, objects can easily get lodged in this join.

    In one case study, doctors in Iran removed more than 450 metallic items from a man’s stomach – including screws, keys, nuts and other metal parts. These objects weren’t able to pass naturally due to the narrowing of the digestive tract – subsequently building up in the stomach, leading to abdominal pains and digestive issues in the patient that required immediate surgery.

    Just as problematic are prisoners who swallow mobile phones, as these are too large to progress beyond the stomach, so they get stuck. The only way to remove the phone in these instances is by endoscopy or surgery – which is what had to happen when a prisoner in India swallowed four mobile phones.

    If the phone isn’t removed, the stomach’s acid may dissolve many of the phone’s components. This could potentially expose its battery, which contains chemicals that can burn the stomach lining or cause it to rupture.

    In one case study, a diamond earring got lodged inside a patient and caused appendicitis.
    AKpicartist/ Shutterstock

    Should an item manage to pass through the stomach, it then has to move through 12 feet of small intestines before entering the large intestines. The appendix is located where these intestines meet – and any foreign objects that enter this tube are unlikely to get back out the way they came. So, this is another site where items can easily become stuck, causing infection and the need for emergency surgical removal.

    In one rare case, a diamond earring caused appendicitis in a person who had swallowed it by accident. There are also cases of this happening after screws, stones and pins became lodged in the appendix.

    The large intestines, where faeces begin to form, gradually begin to narrow in diameter, especially near the rectum. This makes it even more likely that the intestinal wall may be perforated by foreign objects – particularly sharp things such as the post of an earring or even packets of smuggled drugs.

    Perforation of the bowel anywhere through the gastrointestinal tract is a surgical emergency, as it means the contents of the tract – which includes billions of bacteria – can leak into the membrane that lines your pelvis and abdomen. This can cause serious and often fatal infections such as peritonitis and sepsis, which can have mortality rates of almost 50%.

    Spare a thought

    Putting anything that isn’t food or drink into your body carries a significant risk of getting stuck, tearing through delicate walls of the digestive tract, or reacting with the lining in a way that damages your intestines.

    As ever in these cases, spare a thought for the poor person who has to “check through what came out” – or the person who had to clean the recovered jewellery.



    Read more:
    Whether inserted, ingested or implanted, batteries are a matter of life and death

    The good news for thieves who are desperate enough to try this route of “acquisition” is that valuable metals such as gold, silver and many of the precious stones embedded in them don’t change when touched by stomach acid.

    However, it’s hard to say whether these particular Tiffany earrings will go up or down in value, given the journey they’ve endured.

    Adam Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From Tiffany earrings to mobile phones – this is what happens when you swallow something you shouldn’t – https://theconversation.com/from-tiffany-earrings-to-mobile-phones-this-is-what-happens-when-you-swallow-something-you-shouldnt-252962

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: A brief history of dance music – from basements to beaches, dancefloors have mirrored social change

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Simon Morrison, Senior Lecturer and Programme Leader for Music Journalism, University of Chester

    When US rock’n’roll arrived in the UK in the mid-1950s, there were few places for British teenagers to dance to this exciting new genre. But by the early 1960s, dance venues specifically aimed at teenagers began to open in towns and cities.

    Unlike the sometimes grand and opulent ballrooms that had been the stomping grounds of their parents, the new teen-oriented discotheques of the 1960s tended to be located in altogether contrasting spaces, in terms of architecture and atmosphere.

    Several of these new youth nightclubs were in cellars of somewhat dilapidated buildings. They were often unlicensed and aimed at teenagers younger than the legal drinking age.

    Sometimes described as “coffee dance clubs” or “continental style”, the novelty of these new spaces was reflected an the uncertainty of how to describe them. The dancing was predominantly fuelled by recorded music. This allowed British teenagers, many of them identifying as mods (the stylish youth subculture that flourished in the early to mid 1960s) to hear electrifying rhythm and blues artists from America.

    In our new book, Transatlantic Drift: The Ebb and Flow of Dance Music, we discuss these pioneering clubs and the innovative musicians, performers and DJs that have inspired people to congregate and dance.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    In the basement

    Being based underground enhanced the atmosphere in the clubs. Attendees were simultaneously part of an underground movement and also literally hidden from view from the adult world.

    For a few years between 1963 and 1966, subterranean hedonism existed under the surface – and the mod club scene flourished. The architecture of these spaces provided distinctive environments for the young dancers which led to notably visceral experiences. These were hot, dimly lit, crowded, smoke and sweat-filled spaces where the music ricocheted off surfaces and fed directly back into the dancing bodies.

    The subterranean location sometimes emphasised in the choice of name for these clubs – Cavern, Dug Out, Dungeon, Catacombs, Heaven and Hell.

    The Sinking Ship club in Stockport was located in a cave carved out of red sandstone rocks. The condensation that dripped back on to the dancers was infused with red mineral deposits, leaving a particularly vibrant sensory memory of an all-night dance session.

    At the tail end of the mod club era, in 1966 US R&B stars Etta James and Sugar Pie DeSanto released the track In the Basement – Part 1. Although the song refers to a house party rather than a nightclub, it captured the zeitgeist of the mid 1960s mod dance era, and the locations in which it flourished. DeSanto, in particular, was hugely popular with the mod crowd.

    Alongside the trend for naming the clubs in reference to their below-ground location, another tendency was for clubs to be named with reference to places outside of the UK, giving a sense of escapism and glamour.

    This was often in the form of words of Latin origin, such as La Discotheque, The Bodega and El Partido. This reference to Europe chimed with the mod passion for continental European style. It was also arguably a portent of what was to come as these locations transformed.

    Let there be light

    The latter part of the 20th century finally brought club culture into the light. A glorious confluence of musical, meteorological and pharmaceutical effects combined to form, it might be argued, the last great “spectacular” subculture.

    In the 1980s, raw, electronic beats filtered out of American cities such as Chicago and Detroit and travelled across the Atlantic, first in trickles then ultimately in waves, consuming willing European DJs.

    In Ibiza, for instance, Argentinian Alfredo Fiorito (having fled the restrictions of the junta in his native Argentina), played Chicago house and Detroit techno along with his usual Euro pop and electronica. His canvas was the dance floor of the nightclub Amnesia, where he deejayed through the night and into morning. It was not so much that his deejaying blew the roof off the place – more that Amnesia had no roof in the first place.

    In the sunshine, vitamin D mingled and reacted to the rather less natural flow of drug E around the body. MDMA or ecstasy and shortened to E, presented another intriguing combination – this time of German engineering and American appropriation. For users, it became the perfect pharmaceutical filter to enjoy house music through.

    Brits holidaying on Ibiza in 1987 experienced something of an epiphany and took the party drug culture back to the UK. Back home, parties erupted like magical crops with illegal raves in farms and fields around the M25 orbital motorway.

    Events like Sunrise, Energy and Biology eschewed nightclubs completely, preferring to set up in the great outdoors. Ravers found that partying in the sunshine took them back to something primal and pagan. They celebrated in, and with, nature in a reconstituted Shakespearean Arden, powered by the sun from above and the energy from the ground beneath.

    In this way, the story of club culture emerged from the cellars and basements of a subterranean, nocturnal world and found its way into the light.

    The repercussions of this transatlantic drift, this musical flow of beats and ideas, then spread out further like sonic waves across the planet. We can see traces in festivals like the Notting Hill Carnival. We can further trace that beat as it broke out of the weekend and then the UK completely – a neo-hippy trail taking in the free party scene across Europe, and particularly eastern Europe, and on, to the trance scene in Goa and Thailand’s full-moon parties.

    In Ibiza, new laws and noise regulations means that they have literally been able to put the roof back on, but elsewhere the spirit of raves and rays, of disco al fresco, seems unstoppable.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A brief history of dance music – from basements to beaches, dancefloors have mirrored social change – https://theconversation.com/a-brief-history-of-dance-music-from-basements-to-beaches-dancefloors-have-mirrored-social-change-251509

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the UK and Europe could respond to Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster University

    In a carefully choreographed address from the White House Rose Garden, US president Donald Trump announced a massive package of trade tariffs. These include 20% on imports from the European Union, 24% on those from Japan, 27% for India, and 34% for China. The UK gets the lowest rate, at 10%.

    A tariff is a tax on imports, paid by producers and consumers of the importing country.

    US producers will pay more for their inputs – the things they need to produce their goods – from the rest of the world. US consumers will pay more for foreign products. But they will also pay more for US-made goods, because production costs will increase, and US producers will face higher demand from consumers seeking to substitute imports.

    Tariffs serve a role in protecting nascent industries, or in countries with limited state capacity. They may protect some strategic or politically powerful firms and workers from international competition. But mostly they just hurt everyone directly or indirectly involved.

    So what is the Trump administration trying to achieve?

    The official goal is to have a tax that is sufficiently high to reduce the trade imbalance between the US and the rest of the
    world. Every month, the US imports goods and services worth tens of billions of US dollars more than those it sells to other countries.

    Since Donald Trump returned to office, US firms have anticipated future tariffs by importing more. This has increased this deficit to a record-high of US$131 billion (£99.7 billion) in January, twice as large as it was only a year ago.

    The way the US trade deficit works is simple. US consumers buy cheap products from other countries in exchange for printing money at little cost. The trick is that the rest of the world buys US currency as a reserve of value, or to invest in US assets. This seems like the dream deal. Americans get richer and the country is flooded with investment, making it the technological centre of the world. This in turn keeps the dollar strong.

    But there is a counterpoint, increasingly prevalent in the circles that surround the US president. This dream deal is bad for US manufacturing and creates a dependency on foreign producers and investors. Crucially, it depends on the US remaining the ultimate currency in perpetuity.

    So, will Trump’s plan help him achieve his goal of reducing US imports relative to exports? Tariffs will not increase exports. But by making foreign products more expensive, they can massively decrease imports.

    In practice, this is only sustainable if the US wants to become permanently poorer. If the US economy becomes weak enough that the US dollar is not a desirable investment, it could become the factory of the world and sell cheap products, while not being able to afford what foreigners produce. This was China’s development strategy in the mid-2000s.

    Time to choose a response

    Whether this is what US citizens want to achieve is a question for them. As for the rest of the world, the time has come to decide how to react.

    The reasonable take, favoured by British prime minister Keir Starmer, is this: if tariffs are bad, adding more in retaliation will not be better.

    The UK is therefore poised not to retaliate, but to seek a trade deal with the US instead and to give Trump enough rope to climb down.

    Removing bilateral trade barriers would be good for both economies. But it would also send a message that the way to obtain concessions from the UK is to bully it. The US and everyone else will learn the lesson, and act accordingly in future.

    A deal will also end the embryonic tax collected since April 2020 on the revenues of tech giants like Amazon, Google and Meta. Given their increasing importance, such a de facto tax exemption would mean ever-increasing rates on British workers and businesses.

    The tit-for-tat path, taken by the European Commission, is to retaliate and hope that it will force the US to climb down.

    As happened during Trump’s first administration, the EU will tax a chosen subset of US products like Harley Davidson motorbikes and bourbon. But the goal is to do much more and to use the size of the EU’s single market to attack the driving force of US economic growth: its tech giants.

    The boldest tool is the new “anti-coercion instrument”, developed by the European Commission in anticipation of a second Trump mandate. This is a very slow but potentially devastating legislative process that goes as far as allowing the suspension of intellectual property rights for companies based in countries that attempt to coerce member states through economic warfare. What this could mean, in effect, is the EU choosing not to enforce international laws protecting the intellectual property of American firms.

    No password required. EU retaliation could see US tech firms powerless to fight back against piracy.
    wisely/Shutterstock

    In essence, the EU would say: if you do not respect the international order, from the rules of trade to international law and climate agreements, we do not respect your rules either. In practice, no one within the EU would be sued for pirating a Netflix show, or for creating a free clone of US software or apps, until the US returns to a more cooperative pattern of behaviour.

    The obvious problem with this approach is what to do if the US does not embrace more cooperative behaviour.

    This may lead to the most dramatic path – a reorganisation of the world order that more or less avoids the US. Chinese media have reported, for instance, that China is trying to work with US allies Korea and Japan to overcome global tariffs.

    A sort of “coalition of the willing” with a larger group of countries to recreate global cooperation seems far-fetched today. But it would end the US dollar dominance, allowing the country to balance its trade deficit. It would also take the world to uncharted economic and political territories.

    Renaud Foucart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How the UK and Europe could respond to Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs – https://theconversation.com/how-the-uk-and-europe-could-respond-to-trumps-liberation-day-tariffs-253650

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Industrial chicken farms are trashing Britain’s rivers – and planning reforms could make things worse

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rosalind Malcolm, Professor of Environmental Law, Director of Environmental Regulatory Research Group (ERRG), University of Surrey

    Once voted the UK’s favourite river, the River Wye flows from the Welsh mountains to the Severn estuary – 150 miles through an officially recognised “national landscape”. But this idyllic picture is changing, as the river is gradually choked by waste from industrial chicken farming.

    The Wye is perhaps the most extreme example, but the nearby River Severn, the UK’s longest river, is also at risk, along with rivers in places such as Lincolnshire, Norfolk and Yorkshire.

    In the land that feeds into these rivers, millions of chickens are being reared in intensive units to supply supermarkets with cheap meat and eggs. But all those chickens produce vast amounts of manure which can end up in the rivers.

    This floods the river with excess nutrients causing algal blooms to flourish. The algae blocks out sunlight and consumes oxygen, which kills other creatures in the water. For instance the number of Atlantic salmon passing through the River Wye each year has plummeted from 50,000 in the 1960s to less than 3,000.

    The problems caused by chicken farming have led to legal action against US food company Cargill and its subsidiary Avara Foods (both firms deny the allegations). Meanwhile food outlets including Nando’s have denied sourcing their products from polluting farms.

    Described as a “dying river” in a Channel 4 News report, in 2023 the Wye’s conservation status was downgraded by Natural England to “unfavourable – declining”.

    Measures to deal with excess nutrients have led to so-called nutrient neutrality policies. These prevent new developments that would cause a net increase in nutrients. But the knock-on effect is that development (including housebuilding) may be blocked.

    Much of the River Wye flows through the English county of Herefordshire. There, the council, exasperated by the failure of these plans to reverse the decline, took the unusual step of controlling the pollution through planning laws.

    Its Minerals and Waste Local Plan declared that any new chicken farms must demonstrate that the manure would be properly managed and the project would overall be nutrient neutral. That would form part of an environmental impact assessment during the planning process.

    This was unusual because agricultural activities are not usually subject to planning control and what you do on your farm is generally regulated by non-planning statutory regimes. So, the step taken by Herefordshire Council was unusual and the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) challenged it in court.

    What was also new, was the categorisation of manure as “waste”.

    Is manure ‘waste’?

    Agriculture mainly gets a pass on waste controls. Faecal matter (including chicken manure) is not treated as waste in law as long as it does not harm the environment or endanger human health, even though it is not the farmers’ primary product. A farmer breeds chickens for meat and eggs but chickens also produce manure. But that manure can still be useful as a fertiliser, for energy or as compost. So far so good. The problem comes when that by-product is not managed carefully and it ends up polluting rivers.

    So should it be defined as waste – and therefore subject to strict controls – or treated as a valuable byproduct and managed as a commodity just like the eggs?

    The answer is: it depends. Case law indicates that the test for whether the manure would be waste is whether it can harm the environment.

    In the High Court case, the NFU argued that agricultural activities should not be subject to planning controls and that manure should not be treated as “waste”. In effect its argument was that the economic endeavours of farmers should outweigh the additional environmental protections introduced by the council.

    The judge did not agree with the NFU. She said that chicken manure could indeed be waste and the council could control it through the planning regime.

    Symbolic slurry

    This is a symbolic battle between those tricky pillars of sustainable development: economy, society and environment.

    In any planning case, the elements need to be balanced and one will dominate over the others. Housing for people? Industrial development for economic growth? Industrial farming for (cheap) food? Protecting the river and its ecosystem from pollution? Every decision made represents a trade-off.

    As the courts move to prioritise protecting the environment, the UK government is favouring economic growth. Its Planning and Infrastructure Bill plans to replace individual environmental impact assessments with broad based “environmental delivery plans” produced by a government body (not the developer) but funded by developers.

    These delivery plans will set out conservation measures addressing environmental impacts of development. They might focus on protected species or habitats or on issues like nutrient neutrality.

    But there is no shortage of plans already in the government armoury. Environmental Improvement Plans were set up by a previous government. Among these, the Wyescapes landscape recovery project is aimed at developing “sustainable, future-proof business models working with nature along the floodplain”. The River Wye nutrient management plan aims to halt nutrient pollution. The River Wye action plan aims to stop the decline of the river system by making the catchment a pilot for transforming how manure is managed.

    However, as the judge in the NFU v Herefordshire Council case said, all the evidence demonstrates that these plans have so far failed to stop the decline. This left the council to implement drastic and immediate action.

    The NFU is considering an appeal. But the council’s win at the high court may be in vain when government proposals outlaw the requirement for individual environmental impact assessments.

    It remains to be seen how effective the new government ideas on protecting the environment will be. For now, it appears that anything that blocks development is not a government priority.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Rosalind Malcolm does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Industrial chicken farms are trashing Britain’s rivers – and planning reforms could make things worse – https://theconversation.com/industrial-chicken-farms-are-trashing-britains-rivers-and-planning-reforms-could-make-things-worse-253463

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why has Trump launched so many tariffs and will it cause a recession? Expert Q&A

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Linda Yueh, Fellow in Economics/Adjunct Professor of Economics, University of Oxford

    Donald Trump has always talked about how much he likes tariffs. And on April 2 2025, he showed that he meant it. For the president it was “liberation day”, but for his fellow world leaders it was a tense wait to see what percentage figure would be attached to their country’s vital exports.

    Those tariff rates ranged from 10% for the UK to 49% for Cambodia, charges which Trump says will raise trillions of dollars for the US economy and “make America wealthy again”.

    “Our country has been looted, pillaged, raped and plundered,” he said, before unveiling the tariffs which will cause headaches for business leaders and politicians across the world. We asked Linda Yueh, an economist at the University of Oxford, to answer some of the most pressing questions the tariffs pose.

    What is Trump thinking?

    Economically speaking, the president of the US says he wants to make international trade fairer – by equalising tariffs. He said that if countries want these “reciprocal tariffs” removed (on top of the 10% baseline tariff on all US imports), then they also need to remove non-tariff barriers, such as opening more of their markets to US companies.

    As with his first administration, he also wants companies to bring production and manufacturing jobs back to the US. Basically, he views current international trade as unfair and is using tariffs in a way that’s unprecedented in modern times to try to level the playing field.

    Why such a broad range of tariffs?

    The formula used by the White House to calculate the various tariff rates is apparently based on the trade balance – what each country sells and buys from the US. The Trump administration views a trade surplus (where the US buys more than it sells) as a proxy for unfair trade, so is imposing “reciprocal tariffs” to retaliate.

    And some countries do indeed levy higher tariffs than the US. For instance, some developing countries do so in accordance with their level of development. But tariffs are generally governed by the World Trade Organisation, so that’s where countries would normally go to resolve trade disputes.

    But because no tariff is set below 10%, there will be tariffs levied even on countries with whom the US runs a trade surplus (those which do more buying from the US than selling). These include the Netherlands, Australia and Brazil.

    A complex relationship.
    Tomas Ragina/Shutterstock

    Over 100 countries will have tariffs imposed, including small countries like Fiji (32%) and poor economies like Haiti (10%). Those are also likely to be the ones which will find it most challenging to get into the queue to negotiate a lower tariff any time soon.

    What options do countries have in terms of their response?

    The EU (20%) has said it will retaliate, while the UK (10%) says it will keep talking though all the options on the table. Trump has said he is open to negotiations before the baseline tariffs are imposed on April 5, and the extra reciprocal tariffs land on April 9.

    Engaging in a tit-for-tat trade war is economically damaging – as the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) set out in its latest assessment of the UK economy. Each government will take its own view on the appropriate approach, but with the knowledge that it’s highly unlikely that everyone will be able to negotiate a better deal conclusively within a week.

    Will there be a recession?

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that Trump’s tariffs could reduce global economic growth by 0.5% through next year, which is significant. But, it also believes that a global recession is not on the horizon.

    That said, the economic impact of these tariffs is highly uncertain and unpredictable. The effects will vary from country to country, and a lot will depends upon how long the tariffs are levied for, how other countries respond and how companies manage the tariffs and the uncertainty of trade policy.



    Read more:
    How the UK and Europe could respond to Trump’s ‘liberation day’ tariffs

    And it remains a big gamble for Trump too. For a president who considers himself to be the master of deals, there are risks of rising inflation, falling stock markets and potentially denting the US economy.

    Linda Yueh does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why has Trump launched so many tariffs and will it cause a recession? Expert Q&A – https://theconversation.com/why-has-trump-launched-so-many-tariffs-and-will-it-cause-a-recession-expert-qanda-253765

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why is Israel expanding its offensive in Gaza and what does it mean for the Middle East? Expert Q&A

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin

    Israel resumed its military offensive in Gaza in March, blaming Hamas for rejecting a new US proposal to extend the ceasefire and free the remaining hostages. Since then, the Israeli military has launched waves of airstrikes on the besieged territory, killing hundreds of Palestinians and forcing many more to evacuate.

    Israel now says it is expanding its offensive. In a video statement released on April 2, Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said the Israeli military had “shifted gears” in the Gaza Strip, “seizing territory, hitting the terrorists and destroying the infrastructure”. Earlier that day, his defence minister, Israel Katz, had announced that troops would “seize extensive territory” in Gaza for “security zones”.

    We asked Scott Lucas, an expert in the Middle East conflict at University College Dublin, to explain the key issues that led to the renewed offensive and what the prospects are for Gaza.

    Was a new ground offensive always on the cards, even with the ceasefire in place?

    The Netanyahu government’s resumption of the ground offensive in Gaza was almost inevitable once it refused to move from phase one of the ceasefire, which involved the exchange of hostages held by Hamas for Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons, to phase two.

    A second phase was never going to be agreed by Netanyahu. Beyond his personal opposition to the requisite Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza, powerful hard-right ministers in his government had made clear that their acceptance of phase one was conditioned on no phase two and on a return to military operations.

    But with no phase two, the requirement for a functioning government in the Strip has been abandoned, even as Hamas remains.

    So Israel either had to maintain its “open-ended” war in Gaza of bombing without end, or establish an occupation of at least part of the besieged territory. That suits the hard right and those officials who had always favoured an Israeli military government in the area.

    Does Netanyahu care about the legality of what he’s doing?

    Netanyahu cares about his political and legal survival. Throughout the 18-month-long Israeli assault, I have said that if Netanyahu stops without achieving his stated goal of “destroying” Hamas and returning the hostages, he faces early elections and his trial on bribery charges.

    It is therefore in his interests to hesitate, waver and confuse. That is still true today. So, amid the demands by the hard right, Netanyahu has to maintain his government with the claim that he has established “security” through indefinite occupation.

    Can he sell this to the Israeli public?

    That’s the big question. At this point, Netanyahu can only be stopped from within Israel, not from outside it.

    A portion of the Israeli public will continue to support the war. Some will support occupation in lieu of a war. Some even back the hard-right’s goal of “cleansing” Gaza of its residents.

    But others will see this move as Netanyahu abandoning the priority of securing the return of the 59 hostages who are still held in Gaza. The Hostages and Missing Families Forum, which represents most captives’ relatives, fear that the decision to resume the war has put the hostages at possibly grave risk.

    In a statement, the group said it was “horrified” to wake up to “the defence minister’s announcement about expanding military operations in Gaza”. “Our highest priority must be an immediate deal to bring ALL hostages back home – the living for rehabilitation and those killed for proper burial – and end this war.”

    The problem for Netanyahu is that 70% of Israelis, whatever their position on the war, say that they do not trust his government. Even among voters who support the coalition, only 51% have faith in it, and 36% do not.

    Almost 70% of respondents want a return of all the hostages in return for an end to the war. And just over 20% favour a continued assault as the priority.

    Where is the Trump White House in all this?

    Fully supporting the Netanyahu government. In October, Donald Trump told Netanyahu in a phone call: “Bibi, do what you have to do.” This effectively gave Netanyahu a blank cheque to pursue the destruction of Hamas in Gaza once Trump returned to the White House.

    There was a brief interlude when Trump took full credit for the limited truce between Israel and Hamas in January. Through his envoy, real estate developer Steve Witkoff, Trump pressed Netanyahu to accept a deal.

    But once phase one of the ceasefire had dissolved, Trump and his officials were going to be fully behind the resumption of Israel’s assault on Hamas, with the highest price to be paid by the Gazan people.

    Trump posted a “last warning” to Hamas in early March via his Truth Social platform: “I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”

    He added: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered, or it is OVER for you.”

    What about the Arab states?

    When Israel renewed airstrikes in mid-March, Saudi Arabia stressed “the urgent need for an immediate cessation of Israeli killings, violence and destruction, as well as the protection of Palestinian civilians from the unjust Israeli war machine.” Jordan denounced the “extremely dangerous step”.

    Egypt concentrated on trying to revive the ceasefire process and other states, such as the United Arab Emirates remained silent – a reticence that has continued as the Netanyahu government announced the resumption of the ground offensive.

    Even if the Arab states wanted to get involved beyond rhetorical tut-tutting, I am not sure what they can do to check the Israelis.

    Resisting occupation would have to be done either through the backing of Hamas’s resistance or through the establishment of an alternative administration. The former is anathema to most Arab states, and there is no prospect of the latter.

    Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why is Israel expanding its offensive in Gaza and what does it mean for the Middle East? Expert Q&A – https://theconversation.com/why-is-israel-expanding-its-offensive-in-gaza-and-what-does-it-mean-for-the-middle-east-expert-qanda-253667

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    April 4, 2025
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