Source: The Conversation – France – By Luc Rouban, Directeur de recherche CNRS, Sciences Po

Marine Le Pen, the figurehead of France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party and a three-time presidential candidate, has been found guilty of misappropriating public funds and sentenced to four years’ imprisonment and five years of ineligibility for public office, with immediate effect. Despite her decision to appeal, the March 31 ruling in a Paris court will probably eliminate her from the 2027 presidential race. Political scientist Luc Rouban analyses this major political development in an interview with The Conversation France.

The Conversation: Marine Le Pen’s sentence of immediate ineligibility came as a surprise and a shock. Some legal experts had imagined that a heavy sentence would fall but doubted that the judge, under pressure, would take the logic of ineligibility to its conclusion – despite the fact that it is enshrined in the law.

Luc Rouban: Yes, it’s a surprise and I don’t think the RN was expecting this decision. For the rule of law, it’s a form of revenge on a certain style of political life that, for decades, operated on the basis of arrangements, on the basis of the inner circle. That’s what we were used to during the Jacques Chirac and François Mitterrand periods, when there were dangerous links between politicians and certain members of the business class. It also brings to mind – of course – the more recent Nicolas Sarkozy affair. Today we are witnessing a historic turnaround. Marine Le Pen was no doubt expecting a suspended sentence, a slightly symbolic sentence. But this sentence is not symbolic at all. She is no longer part of the old style of political life.

Is this ruling a good thing for democracy, with a judge who applies the law without trembling? Or is it a problem, as RN president Jordan Bardella, right-wing members of parliament Eric Ciotti and Laurent Wauquiez, and left-wing political leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon have said – and as Elon Musk, Viktor Orban, Geert Wilders, Matteo Salvini and the Kremlin have also said?

Luc Rouban: This ruling represents an effort to make democracy better. Reaffirming the rule of law is absolutely essential and legitimate. The French democratic system is very fragile, much more so than in other European countries. Public confidence in politicians and the justice system is very low and needs to be restored. One way of doing this is to ensure that the law is applied to public figures who embezzle millions of euros, not just to supermarket cashiers who are fired and prosecuted for stealing a chocolate bar. The conviction of Marine Le Pen is undeniable progress for our democracy: it’s a sign that the relationship with politics is changing, that politics has become a professional activity like any other, subject to regulations and laws.

Of course, there will be attacks on the judiciary, we will have the Trumpist argument of “government by judges”. But it’s important to remember that judges simply apply the law. We must also remember that the figures, including Marine Le Pen, who are criticising ineligibility penalties, had applauded the Sapin 2 law, which passed unanimously in 2016 following the Cahuzac affair (editor’s note: ex-budget minister Jérôme Cahuzac was ruled guilty of tax fraud in a Paris court).

What does the future hold for Marine Le Pen and the RN? Is Jordan Bardella capable of replacing her?

Luc Rouban: Barring the uncertain scenario of a favourable ruling on appeal before the presidential election, Marine Le Pen is likely to hand over her position as RN candidate to Bardella. But is Bardella capable of replacing her? That’s the question.

Internally, he hasn’t really managed to establish himself within the party, particularly in terms of renewing the leadership and structuring the movement. As soon as Marine Le Pen was absent – which was the case after the death of her father (editor’s note: Jean-Marie Le Pen, the founder of the National Front) – the party seemed to collapse.

What’s more, Bardella is Marine Le Pen’s heir apparent. The party’s “normalisation” could involve a form of “de-lepenalisation”. The Le Pen family has totally structured the party, which is very vertical, very organised around itself and its immediate entourage. This oligarchic model and this verticality are obviously going to be called into question. Will Bardella suffer as a result? Other RN leaders, such as Sébastien Chenu or Jean-Philippe Tanguy, who have established themselves in the media, may try to overtake him in the presidential race. However, this would require a break with Marine Le Pen in a party where dissidents are quickly excluded. The likelihood of such a challenge therefore remains low.

What about Marion Maréchal? Could she take over?

Luc Rouban: I don’t believe so because Maréchal (editor’s note: Marine Le Pen’s niece, who was elected to the European Parliament in 2024 on the ticket of the far-right Reconquest party, to which she no longer belongs) plays the Trump card and makes the RN feel uncomfortable. The RN electorate is too attached to France’s sovereignty, and has evolved toward a form of labour rights that is far removed from hard-line liberalism. The Reconquest electorate is more middle-class, older, better educated and wealthier than that of the RN.

Will the RN benefit from this verdict or lose voters?

Luc Rouban: It is possible that some abstentionist voters whose backgrounds are similar to those of RN voters will express their dissatisfaction with Marine Le Pen’s conviction by choosing to vote for the future candidate of the RN.

But among the right-wing, upper middle classes who voted RN in the 2024 legislative elections, the vote could shift back to Les Républicains (editor’s note: the historic French right-wing party).

Furthermore, for whoever becomes the future candidate of the RN, there will be a problem of support. To win a presidential election, you need to have support in the business world. But dragging around a party whose main leaders have been convicted of criminal offences is not a good look. Fundamentally, the RN was already isolated from the social elites. It could be even more so tomorrow.

How might public opinion react to this major event, which deprives millions of voters of their candidate? Should we expect large-scale responses, possibly violent ones?

Luc Rouban: As far as society in general is concerned, there may be hostile reactions for a while, isolated incidents, but I don’t think there will be mass movements like in the 1930s. The lack of enthusiasm for political life is obvious: who is going to take physical risks and engage in violent action to defend a political party and its representative? Not many people, I think.

David Bornstein conducted this interview.

Luc Rouban ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

– ref. Marine Le Pen verdict ‘represents an effort to make democracy better’ in France – interview – https://theconversation.com/marine-le-pen-verdict-represents-an-effort-to-make-democracy-better-in-france-interview-253551