Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News
VIENNA, March 16 — A Chinese business delegation, organized by the China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), visited Austria from March 13 to 16.
It has been the first large-scale Chinese delegation to visit Austria since the establishment of the new Austrian government.
Businesses from both sides had in-depth exchanges on industries including automobile, agriculture and food processing, and reached multiple cooperation intentions.
During the visit, Ren Hongbin, chairman of the CCPIT, made extensive interactions with local political and business representatives and those of relevant UN agencies, highlighting that China stands ready to work with all parties to enhance economic and trade cooperation and promote the stability and smooth flow of global industrial and supply chains.
Representatives of the Austrian business community expressed their willingness to strengthen cooperation with the Chinese business community and jointly oppose trade protectionism, and they hoped that more Chinese enterprises will invest and do business in Austria.
Australian artists can expect more money in their pockets when their works are resold overseas, with international reciprocity being extended to a further nine countries under the Albanese Labor Government’s Resale Royalty Scheme.
The nine countries are: Estonia, Greece, Lithuania, Mexico, New Zealand, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Uruguay. This takes the list of total participating countries to 26.
Under the Scheme, visual artists are entitled to a five per cent share on eligible resales of their original works valued at $1,000 or more in Australia, and the ability to access local schemes in participating countries when their works are resold there.
The extension delivers on the Government’s commitment outlined in the National Cultural Policy, Revive, to enhance the scheme to provide royalty payments to artists, including First Nations artists, under international arrangements.
The changes come into effect on 31 March 2025.
Minister for the Arts, Tony Burke, said the expanded list would give artists the remuneration they deserve.
“We’re ensuring Australian artists are properly compensated for their work when they first sell it and on future sales. Just like when you purchase a book or an album, the artist gets a cut each time.
“So far more than $16 million in royalties have been generated, which artists would have otherwise missed out on.
“Our Government is committed to creating a fairer playing field and supporting our home-grown talent both locally and abroad.”
The Resale Royalty Right for Visual Artist Act 2009 provides visual artists with royalty rights similar to other creators such as songwriters or authors.
Under the act, auction houses and galleries are required to report resales to Copyright Agency, which determines eligibility, collects royalties and pays them to artists.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Saturday ruled out any territorial concessions to Russia as a potential step towards a ceasefire, the UNIAN news agency reported.
“Our position is that we do not recognize the occupied Ukrainian territories as Russian under any circumstances,” Zelensky told reporters.
He confirmed that potential territorial concessions were discussed during a March 11 meeting between Ukrainian and U.S. delegations in Saudi Arabia.
Zelensky noted that Washington took into account Kiev’s stance on the issue.
He stressed that the territorial issues are “complex” and should be addressed later at the negotiating table.
This photo taken on March 16, 2025 shows the site of a fire at a nightclub in Kocani, North Macedonia. [Photo/Xinhua]
At least 59 people have died, and over 100 others have been hospitalized after a devastating fire broke out on Sunday at a nightclub in Kocani, North Macedonia, local media reported.
Authorities believe the blaze was sparked by pyrotechnic effects that ignited the venue’s flammable ceiling material, causing the flames and thick smoke to spread rapidly. Video footage circulating online shows the ceiling engulfed in fire as people scramble to escape.
Interior Minister Panche Toshkovski confirmed that 18 of the injured are in critical condition. Among those hospitalized is Vladimir Blazevski, a member of the performing hip-hop group DNK, who sustained burns but remains in stable condition.
Police have detained one suspect and issued arrest warrants for four others, including the club’s owner. Investigators are focusing on possible safety violations and negligence.
The North Macedonian government has pledged a thorough investigation to prevent similar disasters in the future. Prime Minister Hristijan Mickoski canceled his planned trip to Montenegro and traveled to Kocani to oversee emergency efforts. Justice Minister Igor Filkov has called for accountability, stressing that such a tragedy must never happen again.
European Union Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos also extended her condolences to the victims and their families.
SPECIAL REPORT:By Peter Cronau for Declassified Australia
Australia is caught in a jam, between an assertive American ally and a bold Chinese trading partner. America is accelerating its pivot to the Indo-Pacific, building up its fighting forces and expanding its military bases.
As Australia tries to navigate a pathway between America’s and Australia’s national interests, sometimes Australia’s national interest seems to submerge out of view.
Admiral David Johnston, the Chief of the Australia’s Defence Force, is steering this ship as China flexes its muscle sending a small warship flotilla south to circumnavigate the continent.
He has admitted that the first the Defence Force heard of a live-fire exercise by the three Chinese Navy ships sailing in the South Pacific east of Australia on February 21, was a phone call from the civilian Airservices Australia.
“The absence of any advance notice to Australian authorities was a concern, notably, that the limited notice provided by the PLA could have unnecessarily increased the risk to aircraft and vessels in the area,” Johnston told Senate Estimates .
Johnston was pressed to clarify how Defence first came to know of the live-fire drill: “Is it the case that Defence was only notified, via Virgin and Airservices Australia, 28 minutes [sic] after the firing window commenced?”
To this, Admiral Johnston replied: “Yes.”
If it happened as stated by the Admiral — that a live-fire exercise by the Chinese ships was undertaken and a warning notice was transmitted from the Chinese ships, all without being detected by Australian defence and surveillance assets — this is a defence failure of considerable significance.
Sources with knowledge of Defence spoken to by Declassified Australia say that this is either a failure of surveillance, or a failure of communication, or even more far-reaching, a failure of US alliance cooperation.
And from the very start the official facts became slippery.
Our latest investigation –
AUSTRALIA’S DEFENCE: NAVIGATING US-CHINA TENSIONS
We investigate a significant intelligence failure to detect live-firing by Chinese warships near Australia, has exposed Defence weaknesses, and the fact that when it counts, we are all alone.
— Declassified Australia (@DeclassifiedAus) March 7, 2025
What did they know and when did they know it The first information passed on to Defence by Airservices Australia came from the pilot of a Virgin passenger jet passing overhead the flotilla in the Tasman Sea that had picked up the Chinese Navy VHF radio notification of an impending live-fire exercise.
The radio transmission had advised the window for the live-fire drill commenced at 9.30am and would conclude at 3pm.
We know this from testimony given to Senate Estimates by the head of Airservices Australia. He said Airservices was notified at 9.58am by an aviation control tower informed by the Virgin pilot. Two minutes later Airservices issued a “hazard alert” to commercial airlines in the area.
The Headquarters of the Defence Force’s Joint Operations Command (HJOC), at Bungendore 30km east of Canberra, was then notified about the drill by Airservices at 10.08am, 38 minutes after the drill window had commenced.
When questioned a few days later, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese appeared to try to cover for Defence’s apparent failure to detect the live-fire drill or the advisory transmission.
“At around the same time, there were two areas of notification. One was from the New Zealand vessels that were tailing . .. the [Chinese] vessels in the area by both sea and air,” Albanese stated. “So that occurred and at the same time through the channels that occur when something like this is occurring, Airservices got notified as well.”
But the New Zealand Defence Force had not notified Defence “at the same time”. In fact it was not until 11.01am that an alert was received by Defence from the New Zealand Defence Force — 53 minutes after Defence HQ was told by Airservices and an hour and a half after the drill window had begun.
The Chinese Navy’s stealth guided missile destroyer Zunyi, sailing south in the Coral Sea on February 15, 2025, in a photograph taken from a RAAF P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane. Image: Royal Australian Air Force/Declassified Australia
Defence Minister Richard Marles later in a round-about way admitted on ABC Radio that it wasn’t the New Zealanders who informed Australia first: “Well, to be clear, we weren’t notified by China. I mean, we became aware of this during the course of the day.
“What China did was put out a notification that it was intending to engage in live firing. By that I mean a broadcast that was picked up by airlines or literally planes that were commercial planes that were flying across the Tasman.”
Later the Chinese Ambassador to Australia, Xiao Qian, told ABC that two live-fire training drills were carried out at sea on February 21 and 22, in accordance with international law and “after repeatedly issuing safety notices in advance”.
Eyes and ears on ‘every move’ It was expected the Chinese-navy flotilla would end its three week voyage around Australia on March 7, after a circumnavigation of the continent. That is not before finally passing at some distance the newly acquired US-UK nuclear submarine base at HMAS Stirling near Perth and the powerful US communications and surveillance base at North West Cape.
Just as Australia spies on China to develop intelligence and targeting for a potential US war, China responds in kind, collecting data on US military and intelligence bases and facilities in Australia, as future targets should hostilities commence.
The presence of the Chinese Navy ships that headed into the northern and eastern seas around Australia attracted the attention of the Defence Department ever since they first set off south through the Mindoro Strait in the Philippines and through the Indonesian archipelago from the South China Sea on February 3.
“We are keeping a close watch on them and we will be making sure that we watch every move,” Marles stated in the week before the live-fire incident.
“Just as they have a right to be in international waters . . . we have a right to be prudent and to make sure that we are surveilling them, which is what we are doing.”
Around 3500 km to the north, a week into the Chinese ships’ voyage, a spy flight by an RAAF P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane on February 11, in a disputed area of the South China Sea south of China’s Hainan Island, was warned off by a Chinese J-16 fighter jet.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded to Australian protests claiming the Australian aircraft “deliberately intruded” into China’s claimed territorial airspace around the Paracel Islands without China’s permission, thereby “infringing on China’s sovereignty and endangering China’s national security”.
Australia criticised the Chinese manoeuvre, defending the Australian flight saying it was “exercising the right to freedom of navigation and overflight in international waters and airspace”.
Two days after the incident, the three Chinese ships on their way to Australian waters were taking different routes in beginning their own “right to freedom of navigation” in international waters off the Australian coast. The three ships formed up their mini flotilla in the Coral Sea as they turned south paralleling the Australian eastern coastline outside of territorial waters, and sometimes within Australia’s 200-nautical-mile (370 km) Exclusive Economic Zone.
“Defence always monitors foreign military activity in proximity to Australia. This includes the Peoples Liberation Army-Navy (PLA-N) Task Group.” Admiral Johnston told Senate Estimates.
“We have been monitoring the movement of the Task Group through its transit through Southeast Asia and we have observed the Task Group as it has come south through that region.”
The Task Group was made up of a modern stealth guided missile destroyer Zunyi, the frigate Hengyang, and the Weishanhu, a 20,500 tonne supply ship carrying fuel, fresh water, cargo and ammunition. The Hengyang moved eastwards through the Torres Strait, while the Zunyi and Weishanhu passed south near Bougainville and Solomon Islands, meeting in the Coral Sea.
This map indicates the routes taken by the three Chinese Navy ships on their “right to freedom of navigation” voyage in international waters circumnavigating Australia, with dates of way points indicated — from 3 February till 6 March 2025. Distances and locations are approximate. Image: Weibo/Declassified Australia
As the Chinese ships moved near northern Australia and through the Coral Sea heading further south, the Defence Department deployed Navy and Air Force assets to watch over the ships. These included various RAN warships including the frigate HMAS Arunta and a RAAF P-8A Poseidon intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance plane.
With unconfirmed reports a Chinese nuclear submarine may also be accompanying the surface ships, the monitoring may have also included one of the RAN’s Collins-class submarines, with their active range of sonar, radar and radio monitoring – however it is uncertain whether one was able to be made available from the fleet.
“From the point of time the first of the vessels entered into our more immediate region, we have been conducting active surveillance of their activities,” the Defence chief confirmed.
As the Chinese ships moved into the southern Tasman Sea, New Zealand navy ships joined in the monitoring alongside Australia’s Navy and Air Force.
The range of signals intelligence (SIGINT) that theoretically can be intercepted emanating from a naval ship at sea includes encrypted data and voice satellite communications, ship-to-ship communications, aerial drone data and communications, as well as data of radar, gunnery, and weapon launches.
There are a number of surveillance facilities in Australia that would have been able to be directed at the Chinese ships.
Australian Signals Directorate’s (ASD) Shoal Bay Receiving Station outside of Darwin, picks up transmissions and data emanating from radio signals and satellite communications from Australia’s near north region. ASD’s Cocos Islands receiving station in the mid-Indian ocean would have been available too.
The Jindalee Operational Radar Network (JORN) over-the-horizon radar network, spread across northern Australia, is an early warning system that monitors aircraft and ship movements across Australia’s north-western, northern, and north-eastern ocean areas — but its range off the eastern coast is not thought to presently reach further south than the sea off Mackay on the Queensland coast.
Of land-based surveillance facilities, it is the American Pine Gap base that is believed to have the best capability of intercepting the ship’s radio communications in the Tasman Sea.
Enter, Pine Gap and the Americans The US satellite surveillance base at Pine Gap in Central Australia is a US and Australian jointly-run satellite ground station. It is regarded as the most important such American satellite base outside of the USA.
The spy base – Joint Defence Facility Pine Gap (JDFPG) – showing the north-eastern corner of the huge base with some 18 of the base’s now 45 satellite dishes and covered radomes visible. Image: Felicity Ruby/Declassified Australia
The role of ASD in supporting the extensive US surveillance mission against China is increasingly valued by Australia’s large Five Eyes alliance partner.
A Top Secret ‘Information Paper’, titled “NSA Intelligence Relationship with Australia”, leaked from the National Security Agency (NSA) by Edward Snowden and published by ABC’s Background Briefing, spells out the “close collaboration” between the NSA and ASD, in particular on China:
“Increased emphasis on China will not only help ensure the security of Australia, but also synergize with the U.S. in its renewed emphasis on Asia and the Pacific . . . Australia’s overall intelligence effort on China, as a target, is already significant and will increase.”
The Pine Gap base, as further revealed in 2023 by Declassified Australia, is being used to collect signals intelligence and other data from the Israeli battlefield of Gaza, and also Ukraine and other global hotspots within view of the US spy satellites.
It’s recently had a significant expansion (reported by this author in The Saturday Paper) which has seen its total of satellite dishes and radomes rapidly increase in just a few years from 35 to 45 to accommodate new heightened-capability surveillance satellites.
Pine Gap base collects an enormous range and quantity of intelligence and data from thermal imaging satellites, photographic reconnaissance satellites, and signals intelligence (SIGINT) satellites, as expert researchers Des Ball, Bill Robinson and Richard Tanter of the Nautilus Institute have detailed.
These SIGINT satellites intercept electronic communications and signals from ground-based sources, such as radio communications, telemetry, radar signals, satellite communications, microwave emissions, mobile phone signals, and geolocation data.
Alliance priorities The US’s SIGINT satellites have a capability to detect and receive signals from VHF radio transmissions on or near the earth’s surface, but they need to be tasked to do so and appropriately targeted on the source of the transmission.
For the Pine Gap base to intercept VHF radio signals from the Chinese Navy ships, the base would have needed to specifically realign one of those SIGINT satellites to provide coverage of the VHF signals in the Tasman Sea at the time of the Chinese ships’ passage. It is not known publicly if they did this, but they certainly have that capability.
However, it is not only the VHF radio transmission that would have carried information about the live-firing exercise.
Pine Gap would be able to monitor a range of other SIGINT transmissions from the Chinese ships. Details of the planning and preparations for the live-firing exercise would almost certainly have been transmitted over data and voice satellite communications, ship-to-ship communications, and even in the data of radar and gunnery operations.
But it is here that there is another possibility for the failure.
The Pine Gap base was built and exists to serve the national interests of the United States. The tasking of the surveillance satellites in range of Pine Gap base is generally not set by Australia, but is directed by United States’ agencies, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) together with the US Defense Department, the National Security Agency (NSA), and Central Intelligence Agency (CIA).
Australia has learnt over time that US priorities may not be the same as Australia’s.
Australian defence and intelligence services can request surveillance tasks to be added to the schedule, and would have been expected to have done so in order to target the southern leg of the Chinese Navy ships’ voyage, when the ships were out of the range of the JORN network.
The military demands for satellite time can be excessive in times of heightened global conflict, as is the case now.
Whether the Pine Gap base was devoting sufficient surveillance resources to monitoring the Chinese Navy ships, due to United States’ priorities in Europe, Russia, the Middle East, Africa, North Korea, and to our north in the South China Sea, is a relevant question.
It can only be answered now by a formal government inquiry into what went on — preferably held in public by a parliamentary committee or separately commissioned inquiry. The sovereign defence of Australia failed in this incident and lessons need to be learned.
Who knew and when did they know If the Pine Gap base had been monitoring the VHF radio band and heard the Chinese Navy live-fire alert, or had been monitoring other SIGINT transmissions to discover the live-fire drill, the normal procedure would be for the active surveillance team to inform a number of levels of senior officers, a former Defence official familiar with the process told Declassified Australia.
Inside an operations room at the Australian Signals Directorate (ASD) head office at the Defence complex at Russell Hill in Canberra. Image: ADF/Declassified Australia
Expected to be included in the information chain are the Australian Deputy-Chief of Facility at the US base, NSA liaison staff at the base, the Australian Signals Directorate head office at the Defence complex at Russell Hill in Canberra, the Defence Force’s Headquarters Joint Operations Command, in Bungendore, and the Chief of the Defence Force. From there the Defence Minister’s office would need to have been informed.
As has been reported in media interviews and in testimony to the Senate Estimates hearings, it has been stated that Defence was not informed of the Chinese ships’ live-firing alert until a full 38 minutes after the drill window had commenced.
The former Defence official told Declassified Australia it is vital the reason for the failure to detect the live-firing in a timely fashion is ascertained.
Either the Australian Defence Force and US Pine Gap base were not effectively actively monitoring the Chinese flotilla at this time — and the reasons for that need to be examined — or they were, but the information gathered was somewhere stalled and not passed on to correct channels.
If the evidence so far tendered by the Defence chief and the Minister is true, and it was not informed of the drill by any of its intelligence or surveillance assets before that phone call from Airservices Australia, the implications need to be seriously addressed.
A final word In just a couple of weeks the whole Defence environment for Australia has changed, for the worse.
The US military announces a drawdown in Europe and a new pivot to the Indo-Pacific. China shows Australia it can do tit-for-tat “navigational freedom” voyages close to the Australian coast. US intelligence support is withdrawn from Ukraine during the war. Australia discovers the AUKUS submarines’ arrival looks even more remote. The prime minister confuses the limited cover provided by the ANZUS treaty.
Meanwhile, the US militarisation of Australia’s north continues at pace. At the same time a senior Pentagon official pressures Australia to massively increase defence spending. And now, the country’s defence intelligence system has experienced an unexplained major failure.
Australia, it seems, is adrift in a sea of unpredictable global events and changing alliance priorities.
Peter Cronau is an award-winning, investigative journalist, writer, and film-maker. His documentary, The Base: Pine Gap’s Role in US Warfighting, was broadcast on Australian ABC Radio National and featured on ABC News. He produced and directed the documentary film Drawing the Line, revealing details of Australian spying in East Timor, on ABC TV’s premier investigative programme Four Corners. He won the Gold Walkley Award in 2007 for a report he produced on an outbreak of political violence in East Timor. This article was first published by Declassified Australia and is republished here with the author’s permission.
This morning, the Trump Administration took to the TV networks to make clear to the country and world that American strength is back – and no longer will terrorist attacks on U.S. troops and vital international commerce be tolerated.
Here’s what you missed:
President Trump on Full Measure
On securing the border: “You just needed a new president … I said, ‘close the border’ — and they closed the border.”
On tariffs: “We have companies moving into the United States at levels that has never been seen before.”
Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Face the Nation
On Houthi terrorist attacks in the Red Sea: “In the last 18 months, the Houthis have struck or attacked … the U.S. Navy 174 times, and 145 times, they’ve attacked commercial shipping. So, we basically have a band of pirates with guided precision anti-ship weaponry exacting a toll system in one of the most important shipping lanes in the world. That’s just not sustainable.”
On revoking visas for terrorist sympathizers: “When you apply to enter the United States and you get a visa, you are a guest … If you tell us when you apply for a visa, ‘I’m coming to the U.S. to participate in pro-Hamas events,’ that runs counter to the foreign policy interest of the United States … If you had told us you were going to do that, we never would have given you the visa.”
On tariffs: “I understand why these countries don’t like it — because the status quo of trade is good for them. It benefits them … We are going to set a new status quo … We have de-industrialized the United States of America. There are things we can no longer make.”
Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth on Sunday Morning Futures
On U.S. strikes against Houthi terrorists: “An era of peace through strength is back … This campaign is about freedom of navigation and restoring deterrence … The minute the Houthis say ‘we’ll stop shooting at your ships, we’ll stop shooting at your drones,’ this campaign will end. But until then, it will be unrelenting.”
On President Trump’s agenda: “Shipbuilding, long-range munitions, hypersonics, long-range drones, a Golden Dome, southern border – the president has laid out very clearly his agenda to rebuild the U.S. military … We have revived the warrior ethos.”
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz on This Week
On U.S. strikes against Houthi terrorists: “These were not pinprick, back and forth, what ultimately proved to be feckless attacks. This was an overwhelming response that actually targeted multiple Houthi leaders and took them out.”
National Security Advisor Mike Waltz on Fox News Sunday
On negotiations for peace in Ukraine: “As both President Putin and Zelensky said on our first call just a few weeks ago, only President Trump could drive this to an end … We know who we’re dealing with on all sides.”
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent on Meet the Press
On President Trump’s economic agenda: “One week does not the market make… It would have been very easy for us to come in, run these reckless policies that have been happening before. We’ve got these large government deficits… We are bringing those down in a responsible way.”
On tariffs: “Chinese manufacturers will eat the price … I believe that the currency adjusts … If we’re de-regulating, if we’re getting energy prices down, then if we look across the spectrum, Americans will realize lower prices and better affordability.”
Special Envoy Steve Witkoff on State of the Union
On negotiations to end the war in Ukraine: “Before this visit, there was another visit, and before that visit, the two sides were miles apart … The two sides are, today, a lot closer … We’ve narrowed the differences.”
On when a deal to end the war could be possible: “The president uses the timeframe weeks — and I don’t disagree with him. I am really hopeful that we’re going to see some real progress here.”
On dealing with Hamas: “What happened with the Houthis yesterday, what happened with our strike, ought to inform as to where we stand with the regard to terrorism and our tolerance level for terrorist actions — and I would encourage Hamas to get much more sensible.”
Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt on Sunday Morning Futures
On securing our homeland: “The president signed a proclamation invoking the Alien Enemies Act against Tren de Aragua members who have invaded our country … The president invoked this authority to deport nearly 300 of them who are now in El Salvador, where they will be behind bars where they belong.”
On activist legal challenges: “President Trump is not shy of resistance … Clearly, there are left-wing activists who sit behind a bench in a courthouse who don’t like this president and his policies, but the fact is everything President Trump is doing is within his executive authority.”
Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News
China will continue to work closely with Jordan to promote common development: ambassador
AMMAN, March 16 — China will continue to work closely with Jordan to promote common development and contribute to regional and global peace, stability, and development, Chinese Ambassador to Jordan Chen Chuandong said here on Sunday.
Chen made the remarks during a press conference held in Amman on the outcome of China’s recently concluded “two sessions” — the annual sessions of the National People’s Congress, China’s national legislature, and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the top political advisory body.
Hailing the “strong complementarity” of both countries in economic structure and calling Jordan a “close partner,” Chen said some of China’s reform and development policies and measures are consistent with Jordan’s modernization drive.
The Chinese ambassador called on Jordan to make use of Chinese exhibitions to promote its products, particularly dates and olive oil, emphasizing the vast opportunities for agricultural cooperation between the two countries.
He stressed that China will uphold global governance based on extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits.
This year, China will continue to offer initiatives and solutions for hot-spot issues, promote the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis, and strive for a comprehensive, just, and lasting solution to the Palestinian issue, contributing to peace and stability in the Middle East, he said.
Released by: Minister for Regional Transport and Roads, Minister for Roads
Average speed cameras will be switched on to warning mode for light vehicles in two key regional locations from 1 May.
The trial, a recommendation from the 2024 NSW Road Safety Forum, will see the NSW Government flick the switch on cameras which measure a 15km stretch of the Pacific Highway between Kew and Lake Innes and cameras on the Hume Highway which measure a 16km stretch between Coolac and Gundagai to capture speeding light vehicles.
These two stretches have been chosen based on several factors, including known crash history. There were a combined total of six fatalities and 33 serious injuries between 2018 and 2022 at these locations.
In NSW average speed cameras only enforce speeding offences for heavy vehicles, however data shows that in the past five years (2018-2022) almost 80% of all fatalities and serious injuries across all existing 31 average speed camera lengths in NSW did not involve a heavy vehicle.
NSW is unique in that it’s the only place known to use these cameras for just a subset of vehicles. Most other Australian jurisdictions either use Average Speed Cameras for all vehicles or plan to do so in the future. Studies from around the world have shown that average speed enforcement for all vehicles leads to significant reductions in crash-related injuries and fatalities.
The trial will have a two-month warning letter period for light vehicle drivers caught speeding on both lengths of road before it is switched to full enforcement mode. From 1 July, those detected speeding will face fines and demerit point penalties. Existing enforcement of heavy vehicle offences at these sites will be unaffected by the trial.
A comprehensive communications campaign will begin to roll out before the warning letter period to help alert motorists to the trial.
Road signs will notify all drivers that their speed is being monitored by the cameras on the trial stretches, giving them the opportunity to adjust their speed as needed.
The average speed camera trial builds on other road safety initiatives introduced by the Minns Labor Government, including:
seatbelt enforcement by the existing mobile phone camera detection network
removing a loophole to force all motorists driving on a foreign licence to convert to a NSW licence within six months
the demerit return trial that rewarded more than 1 million drivers for maintaining a demerit-offence-free driving record during the second year of the trial
doubling roadside enforcement sites used for mobile speed cameras, with the addition of 2,700 new locations where a camera can be deployed. Enforcement hours will remain the same
hosting the state’s first Road Safety Forum with international and local experts
signed National Road Safety Data Agreement with the Commonwealth
Minister for Roads, John Graham said:
“We know that speed remains our biggest killer on the road, contributing to 41 per cent of all fatalities over the past decade.
“Studies from around the world show that using average speed enforcement cameras for all vehicles reduces the road toll, and road trauma.
“We know the trial will be a change for motorists in New South Wales, so it will be supported by community and stakeholder communications. All average speed camera locations have warning signs installed.
Minister for Regional Transport and Roads, Jenny Aitchison said:
“Regional NSW is home to a third of the population but is where two-thirds of all road deaths happen.
“With the majority of road trauma occurring in our regions we have chosen two regional locations to test the impact these cameras could have on road safety for all road users.
“I know this trial will be a change, particularly for regional people who travel through the areas where these two camera lengths are in place, which is why we are committed to ensuring that the community is aware of what we are doing.
“We will have a communications strategy in place including the use of print, radio and social media as well as variable messaging signs and mobile billboards to help communicate the trial details to drivers and riders.
“We will also have clear warning signs installed before the enforcement sites, but most importantly we will have a 60 day warning period in place so that people have an opportunity to adjust their driving behaviour before they receive a penalty.”
Background
Enforcement of average speed is generally considered a fair form of enforcement as drivers demonstrate intentional and consistent speeding behaviour over a long length of road and/or time, not only at a single point.
Research conducted in New South Wales in 2024 found that 68 per cent of respondents thought that average speed cameras were important in making New South Wales roads safer.
A 2015 study in Norway found that average speed cameras cut deaths and serious injuries by 49%. Similarly, a 2016 study in the United Kingdom showed a 36% reduction in fatal and serious injury crashes with the use of average speed cameras.
Average speed cameras in NSW have cut fatalities and serious injuries from crashes involving heavy vehicles. There was a reduction on fatalities and serious injuries from crashes involving heavy vehicles at average speed camera locations of about 50%, when data from the five years before they were installed is compared to the five years after installation.
The Road Transport Act 2013 (the Act) was amended in October 2024 so that average speed cameras can enforce speeding by all vehicle types.
The trial will run for 14 months in total. (2 months in warning mode, 12 months in enforcement)
Warning mode will begin on 1 May, enforcement mode will begin on 1 July.
The NSW Government will report back to Parliament on the outcomes of the trial in 2026, consistent with legislative changes made in late 2024.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne
A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted March 13–15 from a sample of 1,051, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead by respondent preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the late February Freshwater poll.
Primary votes were 39% Coalition (down two), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one) and 16% for all Others (up one). By 2022 election preference flows, this would be about a 50–50 tie.
Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved one point to -10, while Peter Dutton’s slid four points to -12. In the last two months, Albanese is up eight and Dutton down eight. It’s the first time since May 2024 that Albanese has had a better net approval than Dutton in this poll.
Albanese led Dutton by 45.9–42.5 as preferred PM, his best lead in this poll since last September. By 42–40, respondents thought Dutton better suited to negotiate with US President Donald Trump than Albanese (47–36 in November).
The Coalition leads on important issues, but Labor has gained seven points on economic management and three points on cost of living since February.
There has been improvement for Labor across a range of polls in the last few weeks, and the graph below has Labor leads in three of the last five national polls (two YouGovs and a Morgan), with the Coalition still ahead in Newspoll and Freshwater.
In analyst Kevin Bonham’s aggregate, Labor now leads by 50.5–49.5 using 2022 election flows, while it’s a 50–50 tie adjusting for a likely pro-Coalition shift in One Nation preferences.
Last Wednesday Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports into the US, including on Australia. I believe this will assist Labor as the tariff imposition will appear unjustified to most Australians, and the Coalition is the more pro-Trump party. If the stock market continues to fall, this will undermine support for Trump’s economic agenda.
Trump has been threatening Canada with tariffs for much longer than Australia, and the centre-left governing Liberals have surged back in the polls to a near-tie with the Conservatives from over 20 points behind, and have taken the lead since Mark Carney’s March 9 election as Liberal leader.
Labor retains lead in YouGov
A national YouGov poll, conducted March 7–13 from a sample of 1,526, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the February 28 to March 6 YouGov poll. YouGov is conducting weekly polls, and the previous poll was the first Labor lead in YouGov since July 2024.
Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5), 7.5% One Nation (up 0.5), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 9% independents (down one) and 2% others (steady). YouGov is using weaker preference flows for Labor than occurred in 2022, and by 2022 flows Labor would have a lead above 52–48.
Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -6, with 49% dissatisfied and 43% satisfied, while Dutton’s net approval slid two points to -6. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 45–39.
Since the first weekly YouGov poll in late February, Albanese has gained six points on net approval while Dutton has slid four points. This is the first time Dutton has not had a better net approval than Albanese in YouGov since March 2024.
On the ongoing conflict caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 69% of Australians thought we should stand with Ukraine President Zelensky, while 31% wanted us to stand with Trump.
Labor regains lead in Morgan poll
A national Morgan poll, conducted March 3–9 from a sample of 1,719, gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a two-point gain for Labor since the February 24 to March 2 poll. This is Labor’s second lead in the last three Morgan polls, after they had trailed in this poll since November.
Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down three), 30% Labor (up 1.5), 13.5% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (up one), 10.5% independents (steady) and 4% others (up 0.5). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 52–48, a two-point gain for Labor.
By 51.5–33, respondents said the country was going in the wrong direction (52–31.5 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index was down 0.8 points to 86.9.
Poll of teal-held seats has the teals struggling
Freshwater took a poll for the News Corporation tabloids of six seats held by teal independents. These are Curtin in WA, Goldstein and Kooyong in Victoria and Mackellar, Warringah and Wentworth in NSW. The poll was conducted March 5–7 from an overall sample of 830.
Across the six seats polled, the Liberals had a 51–49 lead, representing a 5% swing to the Liberals since the 2022 election. On these figures, the Liberals would gain four of these teal seats (Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong and Mackellar).
Primary votes were 41% Liberals (up two since 2022), 33% teals (steady), 7% Labor (down six), 7% Greens (down two) and 12% others (up six). Albanese and Dutton were tied at 39–39 on better PM. By 47–42, respondents opposed their local MP backing an Albanese Labor minority government.
The YouGov MRP poll that was conducted between late January and mid-February from a sample of over 40,000 had all the teals holding their seats. At the March 8 Western Australian election, swings to the Liberals were lowest in affluent Perth seats.
WA election late counting
With 70% of enrolled voters counted for the WA election, the ABC is calling 43 of the 59 lower house seats for Labor, six for the Liberals, four for the Nationals and six seats remain undecided. The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 47 seats, with the Liberals and Nationals ahead in six seats each.
On election night, it had appeared likely that an independent would win Labor-held Fremantle. However, the independent has performed badly on absent and postal votes, and Labor will retain.
In the upper house, all 37 seats are elected by statewide proportional representation with preferences, and a quota for election is just 2.63%. With 63% of enrolled counted, Labor has 15.8 quotas, the Liberals 10.5, the Greens 4.1, the Nationals 2.1, One Nation 1.35, Legalise Cannabis and the Australian Christians 1.0 each, an independent group 0.48 and Animal Justice 0.43.
On current figures, Labor will win 16 seats, the Liberals ten, the Greens four, the Nationals two, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and the Christians one each and two seats are unclear (Liberals, independent group and Animal Justice contesting). Counting of absents in the lower house has hurt the Liberals, so their vote is likely to drop further. Labor and the Greens will have a combined upper house majority.
Liberals hold Port Macquarie at NSW byelection
A byelection occurred on Saturday in the New South Wales Liberal-held state seat of Port Macquarie. Labor did not contest after finishing third behind the Nationals and Liberals at the 2023 NSW election with 19.2%.
With 59% of enrolled counted, The Poll Bludger is projecting that the Liberals will defeat the Nationals by 52.8–47.2, a 7.9% swing to the Nationals since 2023. Current primary votes are 34.2% Liberals (down 4.1%), 31.2% Nationals (up 5.5%), 12.8% for an independent (new), 10.7% Greens (up 3.7%) and 7.9% Legalise Cannabis (up 3.4%).
Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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On Wednesday 19 February, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson is hosting the Join Sweden Summit 2025, bringing together more than 600 international and Swedish companies, investors and decision makers. HRH Prince Daniel will open the conference and a number of Government ministers are also participating.
Education Minister Erica Stanford is leading a New Zealand delegation to Iceland to participate in the 2025 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP).
“The summit will be attended by Education Ministers, union leaders, and teacher leaders from high performing OECD countries. It provides an excellent opportunity for sharing best practice and gaining an international perspective on common challenges,” Ms Stanford says.
The New Zealand delegation includes representatives from the Ministry of Education, the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa.
This year’s summit theme is ‘Quality Education: The Key to Prosperity and Well-being’. The discussion topics include building a foundation for equitable and inclusive education, supporting educators to foster equity and wellbeing, and the educator’s role in child-centred education systems.
“Everything we’re doing is aimed at lifting achievement and closing the equity gap so all Kiwi kids can succeed. I look forward to continuing to share our education journey with my ministerial counterparts and strengthening New Zealand’s education ties with the world,” Ms Stanford says.
Minister Stanford will also travel to the United Kingdom, Sweden and Germany.
While in the UK, she will meet with the Secretary of State for Education, Department for Education officials, the Office for Standards in Education, and the Education Endowment Foundation. She will also visit local schools and have meetings with Oxford University Press and the Cambridge Assessment.
In Stockholm, Sweden, Minister Stanford will give a keynote speech and participate in the 2025 Knowledge Rich Curriculum Forum. In Hamburg, Germany, Minister Stanford will participate in a German New Zealand Chamber of Commerce networking event to promote overseas investment in New Zealand.
Minister Stanford travelled to the UK and Europe on 16 March and returns to New Zealand on 29 March.
One of the most enduring questions humans have is how long we’re going to live. With this comes the question of how much of our lifespan is shaped by our environment and choices, and how much is predetermined by our genes.
A study recently published in the prestigious journal Nature Medicine has attempted for the first time to quantify the relative contributions of our environment and lifestyle versus our genetics in how we age and how long we live.
The findings were striking, suggesting our environment and lifestyle play a much greater role than our genes in determining our longevity.
What the researchers did
This study used data from the UK Biobank, a large database in the United Kingdom that contains in-depth health and lifestyle data from roughly 500,000 people. The data available include genetic information, medical records, imaging and information about lifestyle.
A separate part of the study used data from a subset of more than 45,000 participants whose blood samples underwent something called “proteomic profiling”.
Proteomic profiling is a relatively new technique that looks at how proteins in the body change over time to identify a person’s age at a molecular level. By using this method researchers were able to estimate how quickly an individual’s body was actually ageing. This is called their biological age, as opposed to their chronological age (or years lived).
The researchers assessed 164 environmental exposures as well as participants’ genetic markers for disease. Environmental exposures included lifestyle choices (for example, smoking, physical activity), social factors (for example, living conditions, household income, employment status) and early life factors, such as body weight in childhood.
They then looked for associations between genetics and environment and 22 major age-related diseases (such as coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes), mortality and biological ageing (as determined by the proteomic profiling).
These analyses allowed the researchers to estimate the relative contributions of environmental factors and genetics to ageing and dying prematurely.
What did they find?
When it came to disease-related mortality, as we would expect, age and sex explained a significant amount (about half) of the variation in how long people lived. The key finding, however, was environmental factors collectively accounted for around 17% of the variation in lifespan, while genetic factors contributed less than 2%.
This finding comes down very clearly on the nurture side in the “nature versus nurture” debate. It suggests environmental factors influence health and longevity to a far greater extent than genetics.
Not unexpectedly, the study showed a different mix of environmental and genetic influences for different diseases. Environmental factors had the greatest impact on lung, heart and liver disease, while genetics played the biggest role in determining a person’s risk of breast, ovarian and prostate cancers, and dementia.
The environmental factors that had the most influence on earlier death and biological ageing included smoking, socioeconomic status, physical activity levels and living conditions.
Interestingly, being taller at age ten was found to be associated with a shorter lifespan. Although this may seem surprising, and the reasons are not entirely clear, this aligns with previous research finding taller people are more likely to die earlier.
Carrying more weight at age ten and maternal smoking (if your mother smoked in late pregnancy or when you were a newborn) were also found to shorten lifespan.
Probably the most surprising finding in this study was a lack of association between diet and markers of biological ageing, as determined by the proteomic profiling. This flies in the face of the extensive body of evidence showing the crucial role of dietary patterns in chronic disease risk and longevity.
But there are a number of plausible explanations for this. The first could be a lack of statistical power in the part of the study looking at biological ageing. That is, the number of people studied may have been too small to allow the researchers to see the true impact of diet on ageing.
Second, the dietary data in this study, which was self-reported and only measured at one time point, is likely to have been of relatively poor quality, limiting the researchers’ ability to see associations. And third, as the relationship between diet and longevity is likely to be complex, disentangling dietary effects from other lifestyle factors may be difficult.
So despite this finding, it’s still safe to say the food we eat is one of the most important pillars of health and longevity.
What other limitations do we need to consider?
Key exposures (such as diet) in this study were only measured at a single point in time, and not tracked over time, introducing potential errors into the results.
Also, as this was an observational study, we can’t assume associations found represent causal relationships. For example, just because living with a partner correlated with a longer lifespan, it doesn’t mean this caused a person to live longer. There may be other factors which explain this association.
Finally, it’s possible this study may have underestimated the role of genetics in longevity. It’s important to recognise genetics and environment don’t operate in isolation. Rather, health outcomes are shaped by their interplay, and this study may not have fully captured the complexity of these interactions.
This study found environmental factors influence health and longevity to a far greater extent than genetics. Ground Picture/Shutterstock
The future is (largely) in your hands
It’s worth noting there were a number of factors such as household income, home ownership and employment status associated with diseases of ageing in this study that are not necessarily within a person’s control. This highlights the crucial role of addressing the social determinants of health to ensure everyone has the best possible chance of living a long and healthy life.
At the same time, the results offer an empowering message that longevity is largely shaped by the choices we make. This is great news, unless you have good genes and were hoping they would do the heavy lifting.
Ultimately, the results of this study reinforce the notion that while we may inherit certain genetic risks, how we eat, move and engage with the world seems to be more important in determining how healthy we are and how long we live.
Hassan Vally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shamit Saggar, Executive Director, Australian Centre for Student Equity and Success and Professor of Public Policy, Curtin University
Two months out from an Australian federal election, the polling is pointing to a very tight race between the two major parties. This means, if the polls are correct, neither party will likely win enough seats to command a parliamentary working majority.
Australia’s most recent experience of a hung parliament was the Gillard-Rudd government of 2010–13. Many still see that as an unhappy era, with internal division within Labor’s party room in Canberra, and yet another leadership coup, as the lasting, bitter memory.
So, it is time to reassess whether – or how well – Australia might be governed in similar circumstances.
Building a stable coalition
The answer depends on us being open to the meaning of a stable, inter-party coalition. This is particularly tricky in Australia for three reasons. First, although the political parties themselves are coalitions of philosophies and factions, this is often masked by high levels of party discipline. With very few exceptions, MPs elected through the major parties pretty much do as they are told when they go to Canberra.
Second, the popular vote share that goes to the two major parties has been in long-term decline, from about 90% 40 years ago, to about 70% of late. The drift hasn’t just gone towards populist insurgents and protests, but increasingly to the benefit of the Greens and, more recently, the Teals. The national preferential voting system pushes candidates to compete in the traditional left-right middle ground. But this overlooks the fact that some voters’ sympathies lie in single-issue campaigns.
Third, and most importantly, our model of minority government is conspicuously one-dimensional. For instance, party leaders and managers think purely in terms of confidence and supply agreements. These are important, of course, but they provide artificial stability by limiting disagreement in parliament that might bring down a government.
One eye-catching proposition for stable minority government involves Labor and the Coalition coming together to agree not to topple the other for an arbitrary period of half a parliamentary term.
There are several better options. The UK’s Conservatives and Liberal Democrats ran a joint government from 2010–15, with some distinction. A big party and small party formed a coalition, and once they had agreed to disagree, they ringfenced specific policy areas as belonging to one party and the other party signed up to it as a policy priority of the whole government. This resulted in the full implementation of their respectively most prized policies.
And just two months ago, Ireland’s centre-right Fianna Fáil and Fine Gail parties, working with unaligned independents and a more formal Independent Ireland, came up with similar coalition agreement.
The inference is that stable multi-party government involves a mature negotiation on the issues, priorities and policies that can unite across party lines. It also requires a readiness to prioritise policy issues within parties.
Of course, this is an indirect way of asking if the Teals can and wish to operate as a de facto party. And while the Greens are a political party to begin with, the extent of their party discipline has not been tested to the full.
Meanwhile, there is evidence of pressure to keep both the Teals and Greens at a distance from any such agreement, with reports that lobby groups for the hospitality and coal sectors respectively will fund major party candidates to help defeat hostile crossbenchers.
As politicians mull these challenges, we should consider the likely “safe” issues – as against the “tricky” ones – in the coming parliament that a stable minority government or coalition would face. Their appetite to govern will be affected accordingly.
‘Safe’ and ‘tricky’ issues in a minority government
From Labor’s perspective, the nucleus is around a disparate set of economic and social modernisation policies. Since many of these have begun in this parliament, the focus in the next will be on pursuing them to full implementation.
For the Coalition, reshaping tax and spending, increasing housing affordability checking workplace employee rights and a bold nuclear power proposal sit at the core. This is accompanied by wariness of immigration and identity politics. Survey research points to its broad appeal certainly but less is known about the depth of this support.
Finding a middle path on these issues that would satisfy enough crossbenchers to help one of the major parties form government will be the challenge. It is not necessarily a bad outcome for the nation. But it means all MPs will have to take into account the greatly enhanced premium on stable government before any serious horse-trading happens.
Shamit Saggar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olga Boichak, Senior Lecturer in Digital Cultures, Australian Research Council DECRA fellow, University of Sydney
More than three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a 30-day ceasefire between the two warring countries may be imminent. But much more needs to happen before a just and lasting peace is achieved.
The Russian-Ukraine war is one of the most visible, analysed and documented wars in human history. Since the night of February 24 2022, millions of Ukrainian citizens, military personnel, journalists, officials and civil society activists have shared first-hand eyewitness accounts, updates, commentaries and opinions on the war.
Around the world, many online communities have also sprung into action to counter Russian propaganda and raise awareness of what is happening inside Ukraine.
We have been studying these communities for the past three years, conducting hours of interviews with members and observing their activity on social media. To conduct much of this research and connect with members, we had to join some of these communities – a common requirement for researchers working in online settings.
Our work reveals a range of skills and strategies activists use in the online fight against Russia. More broadly, it shows how social media users can mobilise during times of war and other international crises and have a material impact offline.
In some cases, social media platforms have aided the Russian cause. At the same time, they have suppressed evidence of war crimes.
For example, in the first year of the Russian invasion, independent investigative journalism organisations such as Disclose documented thousands of war crimes committed by Russian soldiers against Ukrainian civilians. These crimes included murder, torture, physical and sexual violence, forced relocation, looting, and damage to civilian infrastructure such as schools and hospitals.
Much of this content included graphic imagery, violence and offensive language. As a result, it was permanently removed from platforms such as Instagram and YouTube.
On the other hand, content containing disinformation evaded moderation. For example, a 2023 investigation by the BBC revealed thousands of fake TikTok accounts created as part of a Russian propaganda campaign spreading lies about Ukrainian officials.
This often led to a distorted information environment online. Russian disinformation was visible, while the true extent of Russian violence against Ukrainians was hidden.
Boosting Ukrainian voices
In this context, thousands of internet users formed online communities to creatively support Ukraine without attracting the attention of content moderators.
This isn’t new or unique to the war in Ukraine. For example, in 2019, US TikToker Feroza Aziz shared a makeup tutorial in which she subtly raised awareness of China’s treatment of the Uyghurs – a topic that is often suppressed on the Chinese-owned platform.
It started in May 2022 when a young man with the online name Kama mashed up a Reddit meme of a Shiba Inu dog nicknamed Cheems and a picture of a dilapidated Russian tank. This was a celebration of a Ukrainian battlefront victory. It was only intended to mock Russia.
But as Kama changed his profile picture to the meme, the trend started spreading quickly to his followers on X (formerly Twitter). They quickly grew into an online collective dedicated to fighting Russia online. Members – or “fellas”, as they are known – from many regions around the world were brought together by its rituals using internet and popular culture memes.
Calls to action
In many similar posts across Facebook, X and TikTok, users share selfies or other images to achieve high visibility while calling followers to action. In most cases, this involves raising funds for urgent military or humanitarian efforts to benefit Ukraine.
Another common strategy is storytelling. Some users share amusing or ridiculous anecdotes from their lives before closing with a donation request.
These requests often have a clear target and beneficiary. They are also often time-sensitive. For example, they may be aimed at purchasing a particular model of a drone for a particular brigade of Ukraine’s armed forces that will be delivered to the battlefront within days.
Through collaborations with Ukraine’s official fundraising platform, the North Atlantic Fella Organisation has collected more than US$700,000 towards Ukraine’s defence.
Combatting propaganda
Members of the North Atlantic Fella Organisation also try to combat Russian propaganda and disinformation.
Instead of arguing in good faith with highly visible disinformation-spreading accounts (often controlled by the Russian government), members try to derail the disinformation campaigns. They highlight their ridiculousness by responding with memes and jokes. They call this practice “shitposting”.
People spreading Russian disinformation often find themselves annoyed by the swarms of “meme dogs” in their replies. This has led some to respond aggressively. In turn, this has allowed North Atlantic Fella Organisation members to report them for violation of X’s terms of service and have their accounts suspended, as our forthcoming research documents.
However, from late 2022 onward, North Atlantic Fella Organisation members we interviewed as a part of our research reported decreased effectiveness of X’s response to problematic user conduct. This was soon after tech billionaire Elon Musk bought the social media platform.
Despite this, members continue to support each other and develop playful tactics to ensure they remain visible on the platform.
It seems war will continue online for as long as Russia wages its war on Ukraine’s territory.
Olga Boichak has received funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a director of the Ukrainian Studies Foundation in Australia and an executive committee member of the Ukrainian Studies Association of Australia and New Zealand. She has been a member of the North Atlantic Fella Organisation since 2022 for research purposes.
Kateryna Kasianenko has been a member of the North Atlantic Fella Organisation since 2022 for research purposes.
Both personally and on behalf of the Italian Government, I wish to express our sympathy and sincere condolences to the families of the victims, the injured and the whole of North Macedonia following last night’s terrible tragedy in Kocani. North Macedonia is a friend of Italy, and we are particularly close to them at this difficult time.
The Department of Water and Sanitation (DWS), together with the Dutch Water Authorities, have held a Blue Deal Steering Committee meeting, focusing on the Blue Deal South Africa Programme, which aims to improve water management and access to clean water in South Africa.
According to the department, the meeting, held in Pretoria, on Friday, aimed at enabling environment for future Blue Deal partnerships, discuss lessons learned from the various projects, and provide strategic direction to address key bottlenecks.
“This Blue Deal Programme is a collaboration between the Republic of South Africa and the Government of the Netherlands to support water management by exchanging knowledge and experiences, assisting national, regional, and local organisations, and cooperating with key stakeholders. The Blue Deal South Africa Programme will specifically contribute to clean and sufficient water,” the department said in a statement.
During the meeting, the two parties discussed the Crocodile River Revitalisation Action Plan and its adoption and the Theewaterskloof Project Non-Sewer Sanitation pilot project.
“The Crocodile River faces threats of pollution from agriculture, industry, and municipalities. The performance of the wastewater treatment plants in the area is inadequate. The challenge is to improve the operation of the municipal wastewater management systems to ensure better water quality in the river.
“The objective of the Theewaterskloof project is to reduce pollution by improving sanitation and solid waste management through innovative solutions, such as non-sewered sanitation and harnessing the circular economy.
“General discussions covered the status of ongoing projects, a recap of 2024 Blue Deal activities, the outlook for the 2025 projects, and developments regarding international collaborations,” the department said.
DWS Director of International Relations, Albert Mmbidi said: “Today was an important day in the history of the Blue Deal programme. As a team, we managed to review the progress that the project has already made, the challenges, and we proposed solutions to the issues raised.
“We are confident that out of the solutions we have proposed, the programme will be able to run efficiently and strengthen the relationship between the two countries,” Mmbidi said. – SAnews.gov.za
Yet, despite this widespread patriotism, some Canadians may have a relative or friend in the contrarian 10 per cent of citizens who welcome annexation.
From peacekeepers to politicians to ordinary civilians, I have seen how cognitive biases can cause rational, intelligent people to ignore valuable evidence, even at great peril.
Humans often react to unsettling evidence by denying, minimizing or re-interpreting the information to restore their cognitive ease. Everyone in a conflict-prone part of the world experiences cognitive distortions and denial at some point. Psychological security often overrides physical security.
The tricky part is that challenging a person’s denial can provoke defensiveness, even rage. But allowing denial to persist leaves them dangerously unprepared to face real-world threats.
On balance, the safer choice is to rip off these psychological Band-aids.
Denial through confirmation bias
Except for a small percentage of extremists, the 10 per cent who are in favour of American annexation are ordinary Canadians. What makes them different are two interrelated cognitive biases: confirmation bias and belief perseverance.
For Canadians who hold Trump in high esteem, acknowledging his threats creates cognitive dissonance. Some people find dissonance so distressing that it feels easier to reject or reinterpret the contrary information in a way that protects prior-held ideas and restores cognitive ease.
These confirmation biases allow the 10 per cent to redefine the word “annexation” to mean something else, such as peaceful political unification. That imagined definition turns Trump’s threat into a friendly proposal leading to greater prosperity and security.
That reinterpretation may reduce psychological distress, but it’s delusional.
Many of the 10 per cent are simply unaware of what “annexation” truly means, and could rationally change their position once they understand the facts. But a smaller subset of that group may reject the evidence entirely.
Belief perseverance causes some people to aggressively hold their original position, even when presented with disconfirming evidence.
While denial helps them feel safe in the moment, it also makes them dangerously unprepared to deal with real threats.
Denial through normalcy bias
Patriotic “elbows up” Canadians must also be wary of denial. For them, the issue is not identifying the threats, but comprehending their full implications.
Even among informed citizens, NATO, NORAD and the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance are not easy to relate to. Trade wars show up on grocery bills, but these defence organizations keep peace in the background, which is harder to notice.
Canadians may intellectually understand that North American security is deteriorating, but that crisis may not seem as real as tariffs.
For the majority of Canadians who already take Trump’s threats seriously, the first step in countering the normalcy bias is to pay attention to new risks and fractures in existingsecurity co-operation.
There is no time to argue with people who remain cognitively confused. The majority of Canadians are ready to have a laser-focused discussion about the real security challenges on the horizon.
The good news is that Canada can fortify its security and deter threats in this perilous new world.
The rangeofoptions may not be as comfortable as the bygone era of friendly alliances and NATO supremacy. But through intelligentdebate, Canadians can develop realistic new approaches to national defence, and quickly.
Acceptance and adaptation are the keys to survival.
Aisha Ahmad receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.
Across its nearly 250-year history, the United States has never had an official language. On March 1, U.S. President Donald Trump changed that when he signed an executive order designating English as the country’s sole official language. The order marks a fundamental rupture from the American goverment’s long-standing approach to languages.
“From the founding of our Republic, English has been used as our national language,” Trump’s order states. “It is in America’s best interest for the federal government to designate one — and only one — official language.”
This new order also revokes a language-access provision contained in an earlier executive order from 2000 that aimed to improve access to services for people with limited English. Federal agencies now seem to have no obligation to provide vital information in other languages.
Despite some reactions in the New York Times, Washington Post and elsewhere, it remains unclear whether Trump’s executive order will face legal or political challenges. Amid continual attacks from the Trump administration on established norms, this decree may pass with relatively little resistance, despite a deeper meaning that extends far beyond language.
Multilingual realities and monolingual fantasies
The U.S. has a long multilingual history, beginning with the hundreds of Indigenous languages indelibly linked to these lands. The secondary layer are colonial languages and their variants, including French in Louisiana and Spanish in the Southwest. In all historical periods, immigrant languages from around the world have added substantially to the linguistic mix that makes up the U.S.
Today, New York is one of world’s most linguistically diverse cities, with other U.S. coastal cities not far behind. According to data from the Census Bureau, one-fifth of all Americans can speak two or more languages. The social, economic and cognitive benefits of bilingualism are well-established, and there is no data to support the assertion that speaking more than one language threatens the integrity of the nation state.
A building in Jackson Heights, Queens, New York City, which hosts speakers of diverse South Asian languages and their associations, April 17, 2017. (Ross Perlin)
The March 1 executive order is a crowning achievement for the “English-only movement.” Trump has tapped directly into this sentiment and its xenophobic preoccupations, rooted in white fragility and white supremacy.
In 2015, during his first bid for the Oval Office, Trump reprimanded Jeb Bush, the bilingual former governor of Florida, during a televised debate, stating: “This is a country where we speak English, not Spanish.”
“We have languages coming into our country. We don’t have one instructor in our entire nation that can speak that language…These are languages — it’s the craziest thing — they have languages that nobody in this country has ever heard of. It’s a very horrible thing.”
Beyond the brazen untruths and intentional exaggerations, such statements only reflect weakness and fear. The March 1 executive order states that “a nationally designated language is at the core of a unified and cohesive society.”
It is in fact a sign of strength that Americans have not needed such a mandate until now, effectively navigating their complex multilingual reality without top-down legislation.
English around the world
It’s instructive to compare the language policy of the U.S. with other settler colonial contexts where English is dominant.
In neighbouring Canada, the 1969 Official Languages Act grants equal status to English and French — two languages that were brought European migrants — and requires all federal institutions to provide services in both languages on request. Revealingly, only 50 years later did Canada finally pass an Indigenous Languages Act granting modest recognition to the original languages of the land.
While Australia’s constitution specifies no official language, the government promotes English as the “national language,” and then offers to translate some web pages into other languages.
Navigating the distinction between de facto and de jure, New Zealand has taken a more considered approach. Recognizing that English is unthreatened and secure, even without legal backing, New Zealand legislators have focused their attention elsewhere. Te reo Māori was granted official language status in 1987, followed by New Zealand Sign Language in 2006.
Even the colonial centre and origin point for the global spread of English, the United Kingdom assumes a nuanced position on language policy. Welsh and Irish have both received some official recognition, while in Scotland, the Bòrd na Gàidhlig continues to advocate for official recognition of Gaelic.
Principle and practice
Trump’s recent executive order is both practical and symbolic.
Practically, it remains unclear what the order means for Spanish in Puerto Rico, the Indigenous languages of Hawaii and Alaska — which have received official recognition — for American Sign Language and for all the multilingual communities that make up the nation.
Interpretation in courts, hospitals and schools is a fundamental human right. No one should be barred from accessing vital services simply because they don’t speak English, whether that’s when dealing with a judge, a doctor or a teacher. The consequences of government agencies abandoning their already limited efforts at translation and interpretation could have huge ramifications.
Symbolically, Trump’s order is red meat for his MAGA followers. Associating national integrity with the promotion of one language above others might seem to reflect American exceptionalism, but it in fact destroys the cultural and linguistic diversity that makes the U.S. exceptional.
Ironically, this executive order brings the U.S. into alignment with most of the world’s other nation-states — albeit not the ones that speak English as their first language — which seek to impose the standardized language of an ethnic majority on all of their citizens. The consequences can be both polarizing and homogenizing.
Most of the world’s people are resolutely multilingual and are only becoming more so. Americans will not stop speaking, writing and signing in languages other than English because of an executive order. The linguistic dynamism of the U.S. is essential to the country’s social fabric. It should be nurtured and defended.
Mark Turin receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and Tokyo College, the University of Tokyo.
Ross Perlin has received funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Endowment for the Humanities.
Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Nicole Rosen, Professor and Canada Research Chair in Language Interactions, University of Manitoba
United States President Donald Trump has recently been commenting on accents while meeting foreign leaders and taking questions from foreign journalists. Trump praised British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s “beautiful” accent, saying he would have been president 20 years ago if he’d had that accent.
What is a “beautiful” accent, and what makes one hard to understand? There is much evidence showing that opinions on language are not based in any objective standards of beauty or aesthetics, but rather on our attitudes about the people speaking them.
Accent attitudes reflect our biases
Consider long-standing attitudes regarding the southern American accent. Some might automatically assess an accent from Tennessee or Kentucky as sounding less smart than one from Michigan or California. However, there is no scientific relationship between accent and intelligence; these stereotypes are learned behaviour.
Research shows young children of about five or six, for example, do not discriminate between U.S. northern and southern accents. As they get older, they start to develop the same attitudes of the adults around them, and by age 10 they start to find that northern-accented speakers sound “smarter” and more “in charge” than southern-accented speakers.
“French, which had taken centuries to develop into a most subtle intricate form — the height of sophistication — was far too complex for these simple savages to learn. So they did their poor, primitive best and contrived a queer, simplified ‘pidgin’ French dialect of their own.”
It is quite clear this judgment is not based in scientific fact, but rather on racist attitudes toward Black people. Today, language attitudes may be more subtle in their racism or classism, but they persist, using our biases about a group of people to affect how we feel about their way of speaking.
When speakers are familiar with an accent or dialect, however, they use their social knowledge to make judgments about the esthetics, determining which is more pleasing than another. This means that it’s not always the actual phonetic aspects of the language that drive our preferences, but rather social knowledge about the people who speak with that accent that we are assessing.
In terms of foreign accents in particular, our native language shapes the way we categorize the sounds of other languages. When languages have unfamiliar sounds, our brains need a little more time to process the correspondences between the foreign accent and our own so we can accurately categorize the sounds in the foreign-accented speech. Understanding different accents is a skill that develops over time, and greater exposure to speakers with a particular accent helps us understand that accent more easily.
The attitude we have about foreign accents is affected by our social knowledge of a person, their accent and where they come from. Having more frequent and positive associations with people from a particular region will make us more likely to find the accent pleasing and worth deciphering. Our ability to understand reflects the cognitive load that our brain is put through in order to categorize the different sounds that we are hearing.
Putting these two together, it is easy to see how the historical prestige associated with European accents, as well as the political power of leaders like Emmanuel Macron of France, Starmer from the United Kingdom or Modi of India would be reflected in Trump’s positive attitude towards them.
Similarly, he might consider a foreign journalist’s position on the world stage to be far less worth doing the cognitive work necessary to understand them.
Fundamentally, there is no objective criteria for determining the “beauty” of someone’s accent. Our attitudes towards particular accents are often much more rooted in our biases and how we see others in our world.
Nicole Rosen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL2
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 52 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of North-Central and North Florida Southeast Georgia Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 805 AM until 300 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…A broken band of primarily cellular storms will continue east into the Watch area this morning and afternoon. Relatively moist low levels and strongly sheared wind profiles will support organized storms, including supercells and small linear segments. A couple of tornadoes are possible, as well as damaging gusts with the stronger storms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Waycross GA to 50 miles southwest of Ocala FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 50…WW 51…
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035.
…Smith
SEL2
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 52 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 805 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of North-Central and North Florida Southeast Georgia Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 805 AM until 300 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…A broken band of primarily cellular storms will continue east into the Watch area this morning and afternoon. Relatively moist low levels and strongly sheared wind profiles will support organized storms, including supercells and small linear segments. A couple of tornadoes are possible, as well as damaging gusts with the stronger storms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles northeast of Waycross GA to 50 miles southwest of Ocala FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 50…WW 51…
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035.
…Smith
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas. SAW2 WW 52 TORNADO FL GA CW 161205Z – 161900Z AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 40NE AYS/WAYCROSS GA/ – 50SW OCF/OCALA FL/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /31ENE AMG – 45N PIE/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT…LON 31668098 28658190 28658371 31668285
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU2.
Watch 52 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (10%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
Mod (60%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
Cyclone Alfred will cost the March 25 budget at least A$1.2 billion, hit growth and put pressure on inflation, Treasurer Jim Chalmers says.
In a Tuesday speech previewing the budget, Chalmers will also say that on preliminary estimates, the cyclone’s immediate hit to GDP is expected to be up to $1.2 billion, which could wipe a quarter of a percentage point off quarterly growth.
“It could also lead to upward pressure on inflation. From building costs to damaged crops raising prices for staples like fruit and vegetables,” Chalmers says in the speech, an extract of which has been released ahead of delivery.
The treasurer says the temporary shutting of businesses due to the cyclone lost about 12 million work hours.
By last Thursday, 44,000 insurance claims had been lodged. Early modelling indicated losses covered by the Cyclone Reinsurance Pool were about $1.7 billion.
The estimated costs to the budget, which are over the forward estimates period, are preliminary.
The government has already co-sponsored with the states $30 million in support for immediate recovery costs, Chalmers says. Millions of dollars are being provided in hardship payments.
“The budget will reflect some of those immediate costs and we’ll make sensible provisions for more to come,” he says.
“I expect that these costs and these new provisions will be in the order of at least $1.2 billion […] and that means a big new pressure on the budget.”
This is in addition to the already budgeted for disaster relief.
“At MYEFO, we’d already booked $11.6 billion for disaster support nationally over the forward estimates.
“With all of this extra funding we expect that to rise to at least $13.5 billion when accounting for our provisioning, social security costs and other disaster related support.”
Chalmers will again argue in the speech his recent theme – that the economy has turned a corner. This is despite the global uncertainty that includes the Trump tariff policies, the full extent of which is yet to be spelled out.
Australia is bracing for the possibility our beef export trade could be caught in a new tariff round to be unveiled early next month.
Despite last week’s rebuff to its efforts to get an exemption from the aluminium and steel 25% tariffs, the government has vowed to fight on for a carve out from that, as well as trying to head off any further imposts on exports to the US.
In seeking the exemption, Australia was unsuccessful in trying to leverage its abundance of critical minerals, which are much sought after by the US.
Trade Minister Don Farrell told Sky on Sunday:
What we need to do is find out what it is that the Americans want in terms of this relationship between Australia and the United States and then make President Trump an offer he can’t refuse.
In Tuesday’s speech, Chalmers is expected to say the budget will contain fewer surprises than might be the case with other budgets.
This is because this budget – which would have been avoided if the cyclone had not ruled out an April 12 election – comes after the flurry of announcements already made this year and before further announcements in the campaign for the May election.
Those announcements already made include:
$8.5 billion to boost Medicare
$644 million for new Urgent Care Clinics
a multi-billion dollar package to save Whyalla Steelworks
$7.2 billion for the Bruce Highway and other infrastructure
funds for enhanced childcare and to provide some
student debt relief
new and amended listings for contraception, endometriosis and IVF on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.
Deloitte Access Economics in its budget monitor predicts the budget will have a deficit of $26.1 billion for 2024-25.
Deloitte’s Stephen Smith said that although a $26.1 billion deficit was slightly smaller than forecast in the December budget update, the longer-term structural deterioration should be “a reality check for politicians wanting to announce election sweeteners in the weeks ahead”.
Deloitte projects a deficit of nearly $50 billion in 2025-26.
Open to a ‘small’ Ukraine peacekeeping role
Over the weekend, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese took part in the “coalition of the willing” virtual meeting convened by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in support of Ukraine.
The meeting also included Ukraine, France, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Greece, Italy, Poland, Bulgaria, the Scandinavian countries, Canada and New Zealand. The United States did not participate. President Donald Trump is trying to force an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to end the conflict.
Albanese reiterated after the meeting: “Australia is open to considering any requests to contribute to a future peacekeeping effort in support of the just and lasting peace we all want to Ukraine”.
He added the obvious point: “Of course, peacekeeping missions by definition require a precondition of peace”.
Albanese said that any Australian contribution to a Ukraine peacekeeping force would be “small”.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has opposed sending Australians to a peacekeeping force.
Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL1
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 51 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Georgia Southern North Carolina Central and Eastern South Carolina Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 610 AM until 200 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…A broken band of thunderstorms will continue east into the Watch area this morning within a weakly unstable airmass with very strong flow aloft. A greater risk for wind damage along with a threat for a couple of tornadoes, will seemingly focus with organized bowing segments and perhaps a few embedded circulations within the band of thunderstorms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Fayetteville NC to 45 miles southwest of Savannah GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 50…
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040.
…Smith
SEL1
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 51 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 610 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Georgia Southern North Carolina Central and Eastern South Carolina Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning and afternoon from 610 AM until 200 PM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 0.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…A broken band of thunderstorms will continue east into the Watch area this morning within a weakly unstable airmass with very strong flow aloft. A greater risk for wind damage along with a threat for a couple of tornadoes, will seemingly focus with organized bowing segments and perhaps a few embedded circulations within the band of thunderstorms.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Fayetteville NC to 45 miles southwest of Savannah GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 50…
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25040.
…Smith
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas. SAW1 WW 51 TORNADO GA NC SC CW 161010Z – 161800Z AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 35NNE FAY/FAYETTEVILLE NC/ – 45SW SAV/SAVANNAH GA/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /27SSE RDU – 40ENE AMG/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25040.
LAT…LON 35437722 31668037 31668310 35438006
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU1.
Watch 51 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (20%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (10%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (70%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Federico Donelli, Assistant Professor of International Relations, University of Trieste
The civil war in Sudan that began in April 2023 involves several external actors. The conflict pits the Sudanese Armed Forces against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in a quest for political and economic power. The situation has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Various foreign states have picked a side to support. They include Chad, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
In particular, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are providing financial and military support to the warring parties, although they have denied it. Political scientist Federico Donelli, who has studied the influence of these Gulf monarchies in Sudan, unpacks the implications of their intervention.
How did the UAE and Saudi Arabia get involved in Sudan?
Domestic factors within Sudan were the primary triggers for the outbreak of the civil war. Framing the Sudanese conflict as a proxy war may underestimate or overlook important internal variables.
But it’s also important to highlight the indirect involvement of other states. In the Horn of Africa region, Sudan has interacted the most with Middle Eastern states over the past two decades. Among these states, two Gulf monarchies – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – stand out.
Political relations between Saudi Arabia and Sudan date back to the independence of the Sudanese state in 1956. And people-to-people links have flourished over centuries. This is largely because Sudan is geographically close to Saudi and the two Muslim holy cities of Mecca (Makkah) and Medina.
The case of the UAE is different. Since the beginning of the new millennium, the Emirates have expanded their economic and financial influence in Africa, investing in niche sectors such as port logistics. Sudan in particular came to the fore for the Emirates at the end of the 2010s when regional balances shifted before and after the Arab uprisings.
Between 2014 and 2015, Saudi Arabia and UAE influence in Sudanese politics increased under President Omar al-Bashir. Both monarchies wanted to counter Iran’s ability to project power into the Red Sea and in Yemen. In 2015, after breaking off relations with Iran, Sudan contributed 10,000 troops to a Saudi-led military operation in Yemen to fight Houthi rebels. Both the Sudanese army and paramilitary forces took part, and personal links were forged.
In the post-Bashir era that began in 2019, Saudi and UAE influence has continued to grow, thanks to those direct links.
In general, both monarchies are status seekers. In a changing international context, Sudan is a testing ground for their ability to influence and shape future political settlements.
Seeing the post-2019 transition as an opportunity to influence Sudan’s regional standing, the two monarchies chose to support different factions within Sudan’s security apparatus. This external support exacerbated internal competition.
Riyadh, in conjunction with Egypt, maintained close ties with army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Abu Dhabi aligned itself with the head of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Dagalo, or Hemedti.
Since 2019, the relationship between the UAE and Saudi Arabia has changed. After more than a decade of strategic convergence, especially on regional issues, the two Gulf monarchies began to diverge on issues like their view on political Islam. This divergence has been evident in various crisis scenarios, including in Sudan.
Although both countries jointly supported the initial Sudanese transition after Bashir’s ouster, the deterioration of relations between Hemedti and al-Burhan created conditions for a showdown between the two monarchies.
However, the conflict in Sudan didn’t break out because of the rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. But Sudan’s local actors felt able to go to war because they were aware of external support. And once the conflict broke out, both monarchies were reluctant to withdraw local support lest they appear weak in the eyes of their regional counterpart.
Why is Sudan important to these countries?
My recent study with political scientist Abigail Kabandula shows that the UAE and Saudi Arabia gradually increased their presence in Sudan after the 2011 Arab uprisings. The fall of some regimes, including Egypt, made the two Gulf monarchies fear that instability could entangle them.
Our analysis identifies two main reasons for the two countries’ influence in Sudan:
changes to the regional power structure
the strategic importance of the Horn of Africa.
The US pivot to Asia – shifting resources from the Middle East to the Pacific – and the Arab Spring protests increased uncertainty among Gulf states. This led to a realignment of regional power dynamics and the formation of rival blocs. As a result, the UAE and Saudi Arabia sought closer ties with African countries. In Sudan, the relationship has developed through both military and political engagement.
Our analysis shows an increase in both countries’ interest in Sudan between 2012 and 2020. However, our research also highlighted some key differences in their growing influence.
In the early years after the Arab uprisings, the UAE’s influence grew rapidly, driven by concerns about the spread of protests. This was particularly important given Sudan’s proximity to Egypt.
Saudi Arabia maintained a more stable level of influence from 2010 to 2020. This was despite Riyadh also initially fearing the spread of the protests.
Both Gulf states were wary of al-Bashir’s growing ties with Turkey and Qatar, which they feared would strengthen a pro-Islamist bloc in the region. However, after Bashir’s overthrow in 2019, their approaches began to diverge.
The two Gulf monarchies view Sudan as a key country because of its geographical location.
Sudan is situated between two major regions – the Sahel and the Red Sea – characterised by instability and conflict. These regions face interconnected challenges: political instability, poverty, food insecurity, and internal and external wars. They also face population displacement, transnational crime and the threat of jihadist groups.
Moreover, Sudan is an important link between the Mediterranean and sub-Saharan Africa. The country is a crossroads, influencing current and future geostrategic dynamics in the region.
The Gulf monarchies, including Qatar, have also invested heavily – between US$1.5 billion and US$2 billion – in Sudan’s agri-food sector, which is vital to their food security. Sudan, with its abundant water resources, offers a large amount of fertile land, making it attractive to Gulf companies.
What can we expect to see next?
Similar to other current global crises – such as those in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Democratic Republic of Congo – the conflict in Sudan seems difficult to resolve through negotiations. Two main factors contribute to this difficulty.
First, both parties see the victory of one side as entirely dependent on the defeat of the other. Such logic leaves no room for a win-win solution. Second, the current international context supports the continuation of hostilities. The global shifting balance of power provides both warring parties with opportunities for external support. This complicates efforts to find a peaceful solution.
There are now two centres of power and governance in the country. It is likely that this division will become more pronounced.
– Middle Eastern monarchies in Sudan’s war: what’s driving their interests – https://theconversation.com/middle-eastern-monarchies-in-sudans-war-whats-driving-their-interests-251825
The civil war in Sudan that began in April 2023 involves several external actors. The conflict pits the Sudanese Armed Forces against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces in a quest for political and economic power. The situation has created one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Various foreign states have picked a side to support. They include Chad, Egypt, Iran, Libya, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
In particular, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are providing financial and military support to the warring parties, although they have denied it. Political scientist Federico Donelli, who has studied the influence of these Gulf monarchies in Sudan, unpacks the implications of their intervention.
How did the UAE and Saudi Arabia get involved in Sudan?
Domestic factors within Sudan were the primary triggers for the outbreak of the civil war. Framing the Sudanese conflict as a proxy war may underestimate or overlook important internal variables.
But it’s also important to highlight the indirect involvement of other states. In the Horn of Africa region, Sudan has interacted the most with Middle Eastern states over the past two decades. Among these states, two Gulf monarchies – Saudi Arabia and the UAE – stand out.
Political relations between Saudi Arabia and Sudan date back to the independence of the Sudanese state in 1956. And people-to-people links have flourished over centuries. This is largely because Sudan is geographically close to Saudi and the two Muslim holy cities of Mecca (Makkah) and Medina.
The case of the UAE is different. Since the beginning of the new millennium, the Emirates have expanded their economic and financial influence in Africa, investing in niche sectors such as port logistics. Sudan in particular came to the fore for the Emirates at the end of the 2010s when regional balances shifted before and after the Arab uprisings.
Between 2014 and 2015, Saudi Arabia and UAE influence in Sudanese politics increased under President Omar al-Bashir. Both monarchies wanted to counter Iran’s ability to project power into the Red Sea and in Yemen. In 2015, after breaking off relations with Iran, Sudan contributed 10,000 troops to a Saudi-led military operation in Yemen to fight Houthi rebels. Both the Sudanese army and paramilitary forces took part, and personal links were forged.
In the post-Bashir era that began in 2019, Saudi and UAE influence has continued to grow, thanks to those direct links.
In general, both monarchies are status seekers. In a changing international context, Sudan is a testing ground for their ability to influence and shape future political settlements.
Seeing the post-2019 transition as an opportunity to influence Sudan’s regional standing, the two monarchies chose to support different factions within Sudan’s security apparatus. This external support exacerbated internal competition.
Riyadh, in conjunction with Egypt, maintained close ties with army leader Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. Abu Dhabi aligned itself with the head of the Rapid Support Forces, Mohamed Dagalo, or Hemedti.
Since 2019, the relationship between the UAE and Saudi Arabia has changed. After more than a decade of strategic convergence, especially on regional issues, the two Gulf monarchies began to diverge on issues like their view on political Islam. This divergence has been evident in various crisis scenarios, including in Sudan.
Although both countries jointly supported the initial Sudanese transition after Bashir’s ouster, the deterioration of relations between Hemedti and al-Burhan created conditions for a showdown between the two monarchies.
However, the conflict in Sudan didn’t break out because of the rift between the UAE and Saudi Arabia. But Sudan’s local actors felt able to go to war because they were aware of external support. And once the conflict broke out, both monarchies were reluctant to withdraw local support lest they appear weak in the eyes of their regional counterpart.
Why is Sudan important to these countries?
My recent study with political scientist Abigail Kabandula shows that the UAE and Saudi Arabia gradually increased their presence in Sudan after the 2011 Arab uprisings. The fall of some regimes, including Egypt, made the two Gulf monarchies fear that instability could entangle them.
Our analysis identifies two main reasons for the two countries’ influence in Sudan:
changes to the regional power structure
the strategic importance of the Horn of Africa.
The US pivot to Asia – shifting resources from the Middle East to the Pacific – and the Arab Spring protests increased uncertainty among Gulf states. This led to a realignment of regional power dynamics and the formation of rival blocs. As a result, the UAE and Saudi Arabia sought closer ties with African countries. In Sudan, the relationship has developed through both military and political engagement.
Our analysis shows an increase in both countries’ interest in Sudan between 2012 and 2020. However, our research also highlighted some key differences in their growing influence.
In the early years after the Arab uprisings, the UAE’s influence grew rapidly, driven by concerns about the spread of protests. This was particularly important given Sudan’s proximity to Egypt.
Saudi Arabia maintained a more stable level of influence from 2010 to 2020. This was despite Riyadh also initially fearing the spread of the protests.
Both Gulf states were wary of al-Bashir’s growing ties with Turkey and Qatar, which they feared would strengthen a pro-Islamist bloc in the region. However, after Bashir’s overthrow in 2019, their approaches began to diverge.
The two Gulf monarchies view Sudan as a key country because of its geographical location.
Sudan is situated between two major regions – the Sahel and the Red Sea – characterised by instability and conflict. These regions face interconnected challenges: political instability, poverty, food insecurity, and internal and external wars. They also face population displacement, transnational crime and the threat of jihadist groups.
Moreover, Sudan is an important link between the Mediterranean and sub-Saharan Africa. The country is a crossroads, influencing current and future geostrategic dynamics in the region.
The Gulf monarchies, including Qatar, have also invested heavily – between US$1.5 billion and US$2 billion – in Sudan’s agri-food sector, which is vital to their food security. Sudan, with its abundant water resources, offers a large amount of fertile land, making it attractive to Gulf companies.
What can we expect to see next?
Similar to other current global crises – such as those in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Democratic Republic of Congo – the conflict in Sudan seems difficult to resolve through negotiations. Two main factors contribute to this difficulty.
First, both parties see the victory of one side as entirely dependent on the defeat of the other. Such logic leaves no room for a win-win solution. Second, the current international context supports the continuation of hostilities. The global shifting balance of power provides both warring parties with opportunities for external support. This complicates efforts to find a peaceful solution.
There are now two centres of power and governance in the country. It is likely that this division will become more pronounced.
Federico Donelli is Senior Research Associate at the Istituto di Studi di Politica Internazionale, ISPI (Milan) and Non-Resident Fellow at the Orion Policy Institute, OPI (Washington, DC).
Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments
Press release
Crack teams get patients off waiting lists at twice the speed
Sending top doctors into areas of highest economic inactivity is busting through the backlog.
Targeted approach is cutting waiting lists twice as fast as rest of the country
Plans to roll scheme out further as government delivers on its Plan for Change
A new government initiative to send top doctors to support hospital trusts in areas where more people are out of work and waiting for treatment is cutting waiting lists faster, new data shows.
In September, Health and Social Care Secretary Wes Streeting sent in crack teams spearheaded by top clinicians to NHS hospitals serving communities with high levels of economic inactivity. The teams support NHS trusts to go further and faster to improve care in these areas, where more people are neither employed nor actively seeking work, for reasons including ill health.
Latest data from October 2024 to January 2025 shows waiting lists in these areas have, on average, been reduced at more than double the rate of the rest of the country, falling 130% faster in areas where the government scheme is in action than the national average.
A total of 37,000 cases have been removed from the waiting lists in those 20 areas, averaging almost 2,000 patients per local trust.
The teams of leading clinicians introducing more productive ways of working to deliver more procedures, including running operating theatres like Formula One pit stops to cut down on wasted time between operations.
The scheme has delivered huge improvements in areas of high economic inactivity.
They include:
The Northern Care Alliance & Manchester Foundation Trust – where a series of ‘super clinics’ with up to 100 patients being seen a day in one-stop appointments where patients can be assessed, diagnosed and put on the treatment pathway in one appointment. These include Employment Advisors on site to support patients with any barriers to returning to work. Those that require surgery are then booked to ‘high flow theatre’ lists such as those at the Trafford Elective Surgery Hub.
Warrington & Halton – which has run Super Clinics for Gynaecology delivered at weekends, with one-stop models reducing the need for follow up appointments.
East Lancs Hospitals Trust – which has focused on streamlining diagnostic pathways and increasing capacity for Echocardiography, or heart scans, reducing the waiting list for these from around 2700 patients to around 700 – with all of patients having their scan within 6 weeks.
Data shows the number of people unable to work due to long term sickness is at its highest since the 1990s. The number of adults economically inactive due to ill-health rose from 2.1m in July 2019 to a peak of 2.9m in October 2023. The decision to send the crack teams to these 20 trusts first was based on the government’s aim to get people back to health and back to work, helping to cut the welfare bill.
Following the success of the programme, the government has confirmed similar crack teams will be rolled out to additional providers this year to boost NHS productivity and cut waiting times further.
Health and Social Care Secretary Wes Streeting said:
The investment and reform this government has introduced has already cut NHS waiting lists by 193,000, but there is much more to do.
By sending top doctors to provide targeted support to hospitals in the areas of highest economic inactivity, we are getting sick Brits back to health and back to work.
I am determined to transform health and social care so it works better for patients – but also because I know that transformation can help drag our economy out of the sluggish productivity and poor growth of recent years.
We have to get more out of the NHS for what we put in. By taking the best of the NHS to the rest of the NHS, reforming the way surgeries are running, we are cutting waiting lists twice as fast at no extra cost to the taxpayer.
As we boost NHS productivity and deliver fundamental reform through our Plan for Change, you will see improvements across the service in the coming weeks and months.
The new data comes after the government confirmed the abolition of NHS England, centralising the way that health care is delivered, cutting bureaucracy and improving care outcomes for patients up and down the country.
The government inherited waiting lists of over 7.6 million last July, and rising numbers of patients waiting months and years to get the treatment they need to get back to their jobs.
Thanks to immediate action taken by the government- including ending the strikes and investing more in the NHS – overall waiting lists have fallen for the last five months in a row, dropping by 193,000.
The targeted teams are the latest success delivered by the government as it continues its fundamental reform of the NHS through the Plan for Change.
Soon after taking office, it confirmed an extra £1.8 billion to deliver extra elective activity across the country.
This helped create an extra 2 million elective care appointments between July and November last year – delivering on the government’s manifesto pledge seven months early.
Other plans to increase elective care productivity and cut waiting lists include opening community diagnostic centres 12 hours a day, seven days a week, revolutionising the NHS app so patients can receive test results and book appointments, and increasing use of the independent sector to improve patient choice.
Background
Data shows that waiting lists fall faster in FF20 areas compared to non-FF20 areas:
Between October 2024 and January 2025, waiting lists fell by around 37,000
Between October 2024 and January 2025, waiting lists fell by around 65,000
The FF20 teams worked with the clinical teams in the trusts to look at where they needed most help to tackle waiting lists in their trust, with the expertise and insight from the clinicians – particular focus on high flow theatre lists and one stop clinics
Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports. SEL0
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 50 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Panhandle Southern into Central and Eastern Georgia West-Central South Carolina Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning from 215 AM until 1000 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…A band of severe thunderstorms with embedded supercells and line segments will move east across much of the Watch area tonight into the early morning. The more intense storms will be potentially capable of tornadoes, possibly including a strong tornado or two, and damaging gusts.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of Augusta GA to 40 miles south southwest of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 49…
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22055.
…Smith
SEL0
URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 50 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Florida Panhandle Southern into Central and Eastern Georgia West-Central South Carolina Coastal Waters
* Effective this Sunday morning from 215 AM until 1000 AM EDT.
* Primary threats include… A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
SUMMARY…A band of severe thunderstorms with embedded supercells and line segments will move east across much of the Watch area tonight into the early morning. The more intense storms will be potentially capable of tornadoes, possibly including a strong tornado or two, and damaging gusts.
The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northwest of Augusta GA to 40 miles south southwest of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION…CONTINUE…WW 49…
AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22055.
…Smith
Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas. SAW0 WW 50 TORNADO FL GA SC CW 160615Z – 161400Z AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE.. 60NW AGS/AUGUSTA GA/ – 40SSW TLH/TALLAHASSEE FL/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /32WNW IRQ – 43SSW TLH/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS. MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22055.
LAT…LON 33978158 29868352 29868569 33978384
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS FOR WOU0.
Watch 50 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.
Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Mod (40%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (60%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (90%)
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.
Andrew Clennell: The Trade Minister, Don Farrell, joins me now from Adelaide. Don Farrell, thanks for your time. You’re due to talk to the US Trade Ambassador tomorrow.
Minister for Trade: Pleased to be with you.
Andrew Clennell: And you spoke at two o’clock Friday morning to Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. How did your chat with Mr Lutnick go and what are you hoping to achieve with Mr Greer?
Minister for Trade: Look, Andrew, I did speak with Commerce Secretary Lutnick. That’s the second contact we’ve had with one another since he just recently was appointed to that position. I obviously expressed my disappointment that we had not been able to reach an agreement over the suspension of tariffs on steel and aluminium. But I did say that there’s obviously a further review, and you’ve talked about some of the issues that potentially arise, that the U.S. Government is undertaking by the early part of April. I indicated to him that we want to continue to talk with them. I find that discussion is the best way to resolve these issues. Not retaliatory tariffs, but discussion. What we need to do, Andrew, is find out what it is that the Americans want in terms of this relationship between Australia and the United States and then make President Trump an offer he can’t refuse.
Andrew Clennell: And did Howard Lutnick give you any indication of what they might be after? Because obviously you offered them some form of critical minerals deal. Did he give any, any ray of light you had a chance? I mean, I think you’ve said that President Trump allowed Australia or the Prime Minister to believe there was a chance when there wasn’t. Has he given you any suggestion there’s a chance, or was he holding the line and saying, look, this is our America First policy, that’s it.
Minister for Trade: Look, it wasn’t a pessimistic conversation, I’m pleased to say, Andrew. but look, he gave, you know, no assurances about what might happen in the next round of negotiations. Our job is to sit down and continue to talk. I think the important thing here to understand, Andrew, is that when President Trump, in his first iteration, gave Australia an exemption to Prime Minister Turnbull, it was one of over 30 exemptions that the United States gave to a range of countries around the world. So, more than 30 countries, including most of our competitors in the American market, were able to get an exemption. On this occasion, not one country, not one country got an exemption on either steel or aluminium. Now, that’s obviously, we think that’s bad news. We think it’s bad news, obviously, for the companies that trade in Australia with the United States. It’s also bad news for the Americans because what that has done is simply pushed up the price of steel and aluminium in the US market and that has to have an impact both on, on inflation and on jobs. So, part of my job is to continue to put the arguments to the Americans that in fact, this is the wrong policy to adopt. We should actually be doing the opposite. We should be making more free trade, more fair trade, rather than less trade.
And of course, one of the things that we’ve done in government is diversify our trading relationship. So, we have new agreements with the United Kingdom, we’ve got new agreements with India. I think we’re just about to get another offer from the Indians to even expand our trading relationship with India. We’ve signed a new agreement with the United Arab Emirates. This is like dealing with the Woolies warehouse of the Middle East. If you can get your products into the United Arab Emirates, then you can get it all around the Middle East. On Tuesday night, I spoke with my Korean counterpart, Mr. Ahn, and we’ve got identical problems with the United States. Of course, they sell a lot more steel into the United States than we do. But we are talking about how we can expand our relationship with Korea so that we can sell more product into Korea.
So, it’s a two-pronged approach. Andrew, we are continuing the discussions with the United States. We’ll continue to discuss. We’re not going down the track of some countries in applying retaliatory tariffs. I don’t think that will work, it hasn’t worked for any other country, why would it work for us? We want to explain our position and we want to get those exemptions for Australian companies because it’s good for prosperity in the United States, but it’s also good for prosperity in Australia.
Andrew Clennell: Well, I think you’ve got Buckley’s chance of arguing free and fair trade to the Trump administration, to be frank Minister, but what’s the worst-case scenario here? What’s the worst-case scenario? $30 billion, our exports to the U.S. Could we lose it all?
Minister for Trade: Look, I don’t believe so, Andrew. And just on that first point you made, Buckley’s chance. When I came to this job three years ago, we had $20 billion worth of trade bans in China. People told me, look, you will never, never, ever get that trade back. At the end of last year, the last of the products that had been subject to those trade impediments, namely crayfish, we got back into China. And since then, in the first month of that new trade, we got $188 million of crayfish sold into China. You can reverse these decisions, Andrew, so, don’t give up on us just yet. You can get countries to realise. You can get countries if you keep talking to them and you keep making your arguments, which is exactly what I intend to do. If you keep making your arguments, you can in fact convince countries that the policies that they are adopting are in fact counterproductive, just as they were with China.
Andrew Clennell: Okay, but what’s the worst-case scenario? What’s the worst-case scenario here?
Minister for Trade: Look, I wish I could tell you exactly what the American Government is finally going to do. To be honest with you, I suspect they don’t even know themselves right now. They’re conducting this review. They’re conducting the review in respect of every single trade agreement they have. It’s not just Australia, it’s every country. And my job in the discussions that go on in this coming week and in the weeks ahead is to get the best result for Australian producers, and that’s what I intend to do. And it’ll only be by reaching out, by having discussions, by putting our point of view that we’re going to get an acceptable outcome here.
Andrew Clennell: In any of these discussions, do you talk about the prospect of a phone call between Prime Minister Albanese and President Trump?
Minister for Trade: Oh, that’s way above my pay grade, I’m afraid, Andrew.
Andrew Clennell: Is it though? Kevin Rudd asks.
Minister for Trade: Well, he’s the ambassador, of course he asks, and that’s the job of the ambassador to do that representation on behalf of the Australian Prime Minister.
Andrew Clennell: How many times has he asked, do you know?
Minister for Trade: No, I don’t know the answer to that question, Andrew. But you know, we were amongst the first countries to ring President Trump when he was elected and congratulated him. The Prime Minister did that. And we of course got a second phone call with him to express our concerns about the direction that he was taking in respect of tariffs.
To the best of my knowledge, we were the only country in the world where he said, I’m going to give some consideration to not applying these tariffs to you. Now, I know we didn’t get the exemption in the end, but we were the only country that at least got him to say, look, we’re going to give some consideration to this. Ultimately, the consideration was that they would not do it.
As I’ve said on Sky previously, the people around President Trump, particularly Mr. Navarro, I think, were determined that they weren’t going to go down the track that they went down last time. So, I mentioned before over 30 countries got exemptions for steel and aluminium. They were determined, the people around President Trump were determined not to go down that track again. They were going to apply the tariffs, the 25 per cent tariffs, and no country was going to get an exemption. But look, we will continue to talk. As I said, I’ve spoken to Commerce Secretary Lutnick on Friday morning, tomorrow US time, so, Tuesday morning, I think 7:30, I’m going to have my conversation with Jamieson Greer. We’re going to work out firstly what it is that the Americans want out of this arrangement, because it’s still not clear to me what it is that they are seeking. But once we find that out, we’ll work through this issue and we’ll work through it in Australia’s national interest.
Andrew Clennell: Why haven’t you been to the US, yourself?
Minister for Trade: Look, can I say this, Andrew, modern communications these days, a telephone call, a video conference, which is what I’ll be doing with Jamieson Greer, Ambassador Greer, on Tuesday, we’re getting our message across. After that first conversation between President Trump and Prime Minister Albanese, we embarked on a course of action which was determined in consultation with the officials in the United States about how best to progress our concerns about the introduction or the reintroduction of tariffs. We followed that. We followed that course of action and we followed it until last Wednesday when it became clear that the Americans were not going to give us an exemption. So, we had a plan. We had a plan for how we deal with this issue. We were hopeful, certainly based on early discussions, that we would get a successful result here. In the event that that didn’t happen. But we’re not giving up. We’re continuing the talks. And in fact, in lots of ways, the talks will be beefed up in the weeks and the months ahead as we try and resolve all of these issues, but these are not easy issues, Andrew.
Andrew Clennell: No, they’re not. But Peter Dutton says you haven’t got the relationships. He’s pointed the finger at Kevin Rudd. The suggestion is Albanese, the Prime Minister, was seen as too close to Joe Biden. Penny Wong found out from the media that this had occurred. What do you say to all that? I mean, his contention as we go into an election campaign is their government would have better luck with the US Administration. What do you say to that?
Minister for Trade: Look, Peter Dutton couldn’t go two rounds with a revolving door Andrew. What happened? When we came to government, there were $20 billion worth of tariffs and trade impediments with the Chinese. If Peter Dutton’s so good at building relationships and solving problems, they didn’t get a cent, they didn’t get a cent or a single tariff removed in that previous three years in government. We got the best result or the best response of any country in the world. We got a consideration by the President to review these tariffs. Now ok, it didn’t ultimately result in us getting the tariffs removed and we accept that. We accept that situation. I’d ask your listeners, who do you think is going to be better to negotiate with the United States? Somebody with a proven record of getting results or somebody, when they had the opportunity to get some results, did nothing. Did nothing. They did nothing.
Andrew Clennell: What would a tariff do to the beef industry?
Minister for Trade: It would certainly have a clearly a negative impact. The United States I think is, if it’s not the largest export market for our beef industry, it would have a significant impact. We are expanding our beef exports, our beef exports right now thanks to the Albanese Labor Government, are the best that they’ve ever been. We’re exporting more beef than we ever have. The significance, of course to the United States about our beef exports is that most of it goes into McDonald’s hamburgers. And if you push up the price of those beef exports by 25 per cent or 10 per cent or whatever the figure is, then you simply push up the price of hamburgers in the United States. It doesn’t make any sense, Andrew. It doesn’t make any sense at all.
Andrew Clennell: Sure.
Minister for Trade: You want to be pushing prices down. You don’t want to be pushing them up.
Andrew Clennell: Indeed. There’s also speculation the trade war could harm the PBS somehow and cause pharmaceutical prices to go up. How would that occur and what do you make of that speculation?
Minister for Trade: Well, it simply is speculation. That’s all it is, Andrew. I’ve not heard one comment from any person in the United States that refers to the PBS. We’ve got a terrific health system. We’re continuing to improve all the time. Minister Butler is always coming up with new ideas to improve our health system. The PBS is an essential part of our health system and there will be absolutely nothing that the Americans can do to impact on our health system or the PBS system. And we certainly, we certainly would not contemplate doing anything at any stage that makes our health system more expensive. We want to put downward pressure on the cost of health and we’re going to continue to do that, especially if we get re-elected in a few weeks’ time.
Andrew Clennell: It’s been reported the deal that Australia put on the table was access to our critical minerals like lithium, manganese, what’s the nature of that deal? Presumably America would still have to pay for the minerals. Would they get the minerals at a cheaper rate? Would they have the first right of refusal on the minerals? What are the minerals to be used for? Making mobile phones, electric cars and the like?
Minister for Trade: Yeah, look, Australia is very fortunate in the sense that we have either the largest or the second largest reserves of all critical minerals and rare earths in the world. Now, critical minerals are different from other minerals. If you go up to the Pilbara, you can see iron ore as far as the eye can see, Andrew. Critical minerals tend to be in much smaller deposits and they’re much deeper down. Two things about that. They are more expensive to extract and they take longer to dig out of the ground and they don’t last as long so you’ve got to keep finding new resources. What this means for what we were proposing to the Americans was continued and improved investment in getting access to those critical minerals. We’ve got some of the most sophisticated miners in Australia, Andrew. We’ve got a very sophisticated mining operation here, much more sophisticated than the Americans. But the thing we often don’t have is access to capital. So, the offer to the Americans was, look, we’ll work with you. You want these critical minerals, you want them for electric batteries in cars, you’ve mentioned some of the other things, mobile phones, all of these sorts of things. But the process of extraction is expensive, we need capital. We want to work with other countries. We want to particularly work, for instance, with the Europeans. We’ve made them some offers in this regard. It’s not about cheaper prices, it’s not about preferred access. It’s about ensuring that they’ve got a reliable supply chain to ensure that when they need these critical minerals, you’ve got a reliable country like Australia who can provide them.
Andrew Clennell: So, would that be Australian money or American money? When you talk about increased investment –
Minister for Trade: Both. Both.
Andrew Clennell: Okay. So, an Australian financial offer was put on the table?
Minister for Trade: No, it wasn’t a financial offer in that sense. It was a way forward to try and get support both in Australia and in the United States for extracting these critical minerals. So, if we’re going to go down the track of decarbonising our economies, this is the way we need to go. But it’s going to require investment, significant investment. The Australian Government is already making significant investments in this area. But to get to where we want to get to in terms of that net zero project, then we need more investment and –
Andrew Clennell: Do you see the hand of Elon Musk? Do you see the hand of Elon Musk in any of this? The keenness of the Americans for these critical minerals.
Minister for Trade: Well, look, they didn’t accept our offer. So, if Mr Musk was involved in this, then he doesn’t appear to have influenced the result, if that was what he was after. To the best of my knowledge, Mr. Musk was not involved in any of these discussions that I –
Andrew Clennell: All right, no worries. We’re nearly out of time. Overnight, the PM reiterated in a meeting with European leaders he would consider sending peacekeepers to Ukraine if there was peace. That’ll be controversial with a lot of Australians because it’s not our region. We know Peter Dutton doesn’t support this. Is the PM trying to muscle up here after Peter Dutton has continually called him weak? What’s the motivation to get involved in this conflict?
Minister for Trade: Andrew, for the last 80 years, in other words, since the end of World War II, Australia has been involved in peacekeeping missions all the way around the world. We’ve come out right from day one, Prime Minister Albanese has been very clear and very strong on this, we support Ukraine. Ukraine’s fight for democracy. Ukraine’s fight for its sovereignty is Australia’s fight. It’s Australia’s fight. We’ve made significant financial contributions to Ukraine to ensure that they can defend themselves from this illegal and immoral monster, Putin, and we’ll continue to do that. And if Prime Minister Starmer says, look, will you contribute to peacekeeping? I think that’s the right thing to do. Look, it’s not all about popularity and so forth, but it’s the right thing to do. We want to see peace around the world. The best thing that Australia can do in terms of any international relationship is to support peace. And if we can make a contribution to that peacekeeping effort, then I think we should. And I think Mr. Dutton is completely on the wrong track here. Australians support the Ukrainian fight. I was on the steps of Parliament House just a couple of weeks ago with Premier Malinauskas. His background is Lithuanian. He knows exactly what happens if you don’t stand up to bullies like Putin. It’s in our interest to defend democracy in Ukraine. It’s in our interest to be part of a peacekeeping force when there’s peace.
Andrew Clennell: Finally, and briefly, there was something of a blow to the government late last week with the default market offer out, that Australians face price rises of up to 10 per cent on their power bills. Will the government’s electricity subsidy be extended and increased in the budget?
Minister for Trade: Well, you know the answer to that question, Andrew. You’ll have to ask the Treasurer, and you’ve only got a few more sleeps to find out what’s going to be in the next budget.
Andrew Clennell: Well, I might ask him on the show next week. Thanks very much, Don Farrell.
Participants pose for a group photo after a forum during the 2024 Tsinghua International Conference on Art & Design Education (ICADE 2024) in Milan, Nov. 16, 2024. [Photo courtesy of AADTHU]
Tsinghua University ranked No. 1 in Asia and No. 14 globally for arts and design, and No. 2 in Asia and No. 3 worldwide for art history in the 15th edition of the QS World University Rankings by Subject, released on March 12 by global higher education analytics firm Quacquarelli Symonds.
Both disciplines are part of the Academy of Arts & Design, Tsinghua University (AADTHU). Notably, the art and design discipline rose 10 places in the global rankings, while the art history climbed 2 places.
In its largest-ever subject rankings, Quacquarelli Symonds compared over 21,000 academic programs, taken by students at more than 1,700 universities across 100 countries and regions, spanning 55 subjects and five faculty areas. The Chinese mainland ranked third globally with 1,230 subjects listed, trailing only the United States and the United Kingdom.
According to AADTHU’s official website, the academy’s achievements are deeply rooted in its strong commitment to constructing an integrated interdisciplinary system and to pioneering internationalized education.
By leading the reform of global art education, AADTHU is crafting a new professional development blueprint with an open approach. It is deepening its strategy of integrating art and science, advancing the development of interdisciplinary talent, and fostering innovation in technology and design, cultivating professionals with expertise in both the sciences and humanities.
In 2024, the academy invited 44 professors from prestigious global institutions, alongside artists, designers and industry leaders, for short-term programs. These initiatives featured 30 lectures, eight courses and two workshops, drawing over 1,000 faculty and student participants. Beyond this, the academy hosted 42 distinguished international experts as keynote speakers at conferences it either organized or co-hosted.
Notable events from 2024 include an opening forum on the integration of art design and industry innovation in the era of artificial intelligence (AI) at Milan Academic Week in Milan, Italy, in January, as well as the 6th Art and Science International Symposium held in Beijing in March. Meanwhile, the 2024 Tsinghua International Conference on Art & Design Education (ICADE 2024), themed “New Dimensions: Imagination Beyond the Horizon,” and the exhibition “From the Seine to Guanghua Road: Modernization of Art Deco” were successfully held in Milan and Beijing, respectively, in November.
Further highlights from last year include the “Arts and Crafts Artworks Exhibition of AADTHU” held in Wakayama prefecture, Japan, and a special exhibition and international symposium on Dunhuang art research, which opened at the China-France Fashion Week in Paris, France. “Brilliance of Cooperation: The Olympic Art Exhibition of Tsinghua University” was also held in Lausanne, Switzerland, in October.
Additionally, Tsinghua University’s doctoral degree authorization points for the first-level disciplines of both art studies and design studies successfully passed an on-site evaluation in October by experts from peer higher education institutions. Earlier this year in January, the China Scientometrics and Bibliometrics Research Center of CNKI also named 11 faculty members from AADTHU as “2024 CNKI Highly Cited Scholars.” CNKI stands for China National Knowledge Infrastructure, a leading online academic database.
AADTHU offers a diverse range of disciplines across 10 departments, including textile and fashion design, ceramic design, visual communication design, environmental art design, industrial design, information art & design, painting, sculpture, arts and crafts, and art history. The academy also features specialized offices for research, international exchanges, and art galleries.
The academy’s website also showed in recent years, AADTHU has continued to enhance its international standards, strengthen global academic exchanges, and expand its influence in international art education. Its art and design discipline, among the earliest in China to grant master’s and doctoral degrees, consistently ranks first nationally, emphasizing interdisciplinary, innovative, and globally competent talent development. AADTHU’s Department of Art History has also ranked among the top in national evaluations, with over half of its graduates securing positions at universities, museums, and research institutions.
AADTHU pledges to use its expertise to support a global community with a shared future. Guided by the principle of “art for life, design for livelihood,” it is contributing to addressing rural revitalization, livelihood development and global issues, making art a force for progress and contributing Tsinghua’s wisdom to world civilization.
Cultural creative products of Chinese animated film Ne Zha 2 are pictured in a toy store in Chengdu, southwest China’s Sichuan Province, March 4, 2025. (Xinhua/Lu Youyi)
Chinese animated blockbuster “Ne Zha 2” has soared past Disney’s “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” to claim the fifth spot on the all-time global box office charts, further solidifying its status as both a cultural and commercial phenomenon.
According to data from ticketing platform Maoyan as of Saturday, the film’s global earnings — including presales — have surpassed 15.019 billion yuan (about 2.09 billion U.S. dollars), a milestone reached just 45 days after its release during the Chinese New Year on Jan. 29.
This latest feat adds to an impressive list of records for the film, which became the first film to gross 1 billion U.S. dollars in a single market, the first non-Hollywood title to enter the billion-dollar club, and the highest-grossing animated movie of all time worldwide.
MILESTONE FOR CHINESE CINEMA
Directed by Yang Yu, known as Jiaozi, the sequel to 2019’s “Ne Zha” — which grossed 5 billion yuan and topped the Chinese box office that year — has redefined the ceiling for single-film earnings in Chinese cinema. Over 98 percent of its revenue has come from the Chinese mainland, according to Maoyan data.
“This success has not only boosted the confidence of creators but also showcased the resilience and immense growth potential of the Chinese market,” said Lai Li, a Maoyan analyst.
The film’s roots run deep in Chinese mythology, continuing the story of the boy god Nezha as he and his ally Aobing struggle to rebuild their physical forms. With the help of the immortal Taiyi Zhenren, they navigate a journey of self-discovery, fate and defiance.
The story’s rich mythology, dazzling animation and universal themes have struck a chord with audiences. “‘Ne Zha 2’ is a miracle and a peak in Chinese cinema, a record that may remain unbroken for a long time,” said Chen Xuguang, director of the Institute of Film, Television and Theatre at Peking University.
EXPANDING GLOBAL REACH WITH ACCLAIM
The film’s technical achievements are just as remarkable. With nearly 2,000 visual effects shots and contributions from 138 animation studios, “Ne Zha 2” exemplifies the growing strength of China’s creative industry.
Since its international rollout began on Feb. 13 in Australia and New Zealand, “Ne Zha 2” has steadily expanded its global footprint. It opened in North America the following day, shattering the region’s 20-year-old opening weekend record for a Chinese-language film.
Sheila Sofian, a professor at the University of Southern California and a member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, praised the film’s production design, sound design, and music, calling it “mind-blowing” in a video interview shared by China Media Group.
After debuting in Singapore on March 6, “Ne Zha 2” launched this week in the Philippines, Malaysia and Thailand, with further Southeast Asian rollouts planned in the coming weeks.
Its European expansion is also underway. On Friday, the film held preview screenings in Britain and Ireland ahead of its official March 21 release in both countries, with further European rollouts to follow.
Cedric Behrel, managing director of Trinity CineAsia, which holds theatrical distribution rights for “Ne Zha 2” across 37 territories, including the UK, Ireland, Germany, France and Spain, described the film’s European launch as “unprecedented in scope.”
INDUSTRY-WIDE, CULTURAL IMPACT
“Ne Zha 2” has struck a deep emotional chord with audiences. One Maoyan user reflected on the film’s themes of prejudice and resilience, writing, “The line ‘prejudice in people’s hearts is like an unmovable mountain’ rings true… Even I, from a humble background, used to judge others based on their family background.”
Another viewer, a high school student preparing for China’s tough college entrance exams, found personal inspiration: “With 100 days left until the exam, ‘Ne Zha 2’ reminded me that my potential is limitless. If there’s no path ahead, I’ll carve one out myself!”
Largely driven by “Ne Zha 2,” China’s box office revenue during the 2025 Spring Festival holiday hit a record high, injecting much-needed optimism into the country’s film industry, which saw earnings fall by 23 percent in 2024 compared to 2023, and by 34 percent from the pre-pandemic peak in 2019.
Dong Wenxin, a film critic and manager of a cinema in Jinan, Shandong Province, emphasized the film’s industry-wide impact. “‘Ne Zha 2’ hasn’t drained the market but expanded it. More people are paying attention to theatrical releases and are willing to support quality content,” she told Xinhua. “We owe a lot to ‘Ne Zha 2’ — it’s proof that great commercial blockbusters can sustain a healthy market cycle.”
Beyond its domestic success, “Ne Zha 2” is poised to serve as a cultural bridge, offering global audiences a window into China’s rich mythology and traditions.
Yin Hong, vice chairman of the China Film Association and a professor at Tsinghua University, told Xinhua that the success of “Ne Zha 2” reflects the dynamism of China’s creative industries, the enduring appeal of its traditional culture, and the potential for Chinese stories to captivate audiences all over the world.
In a video interview, Jiaozi reflected on the personal journey the “Ne Zha” films have taken him on, revealing how the series has evolved from his own passion into a broad cultural phenomenon. “The first step was creating something I loved, and domestic audiences loved it too,” he said. “Over time, I’ve worked to improve it, to refine my craft. I believe that one day, new ideas, deeper meanings, and a new soul will emerge from it, and the whole world will be able to appreciate it.”
