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Category: Evening Report

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Nature markets’ may help preserve biodiversity – but they risk repeating colonial patterns of Indigenous exploitation

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Hall, Senior Lecturer in Social Sciences and Public Policy, Auckland University of Technology

    Renee Raroa Renee Raroa, CC BY-SA

    As the latest global biodiversity summit gets underway in Colombia, finance for the conservation and restoration of nature is one of the key themes of negotiations.

    Global wildlife populations have shrunk by an average of 73% in the past 50 years, according to the 2024 Living Planet report. Consequently, momentum is growing worldwide to deliver new nature markets, such as biodiversity credits, to unlock new sources of funding.

    Basically, nature markets are systems of exchange that match demand for nature regeneration with a supply of nature-positive projects.

    But this creates risks, as well as opportunities, for Indigenous peoples. Without due care for data sovereignty, Indigenous communities may lose out yet again.

    Nature markets could enable Indigenous peoples to fulfill their duties of guardianship. But such markets could also forge a new form of colonialism, including enclosure and appropriation of habitats and species that Indigenous peoples have traditional connections to.

    Efforts to prevent deforestation have at times displaced Indigenous people.
    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    This can occur overtly through formalisation of property rights over species, ecosystems and associated lands or waters. For example, efforts to reduce emissions from deforestation (REDD+) in developing countries have been troubled by instances where Indigenous communities were dispossessed from ancestral lands, alienated from place-based traditions or excluded from the commercial benefits of carbon trading.

    The current surge for nature markets is attentive to these risks, with international commitments to avoid such mistakes. Yet the processes of colonialism can be less overt and more insidious.

    Indigenous data

    One neglected area is Indigenous data. This relates to traditional and cultural information, population data, oral histories and ancestral knowledge relating to the environment and natural resources.

    If care is not taken with Indigenous data, there are serious risks of reproducing colonialist patterns of exploitation.

    Data represents reality. Data helps decision makers to know whether their interventions are effective, even when they are far away from the ecosystems being protected or restored.

    If data are accurate, authentic and timely, a funder does not need to set foot in a remote habitat to know whether its carbon stock or native species abundance are improving or declining.

    Biodiversity credits represent one way to operationalise a nature market. They are basically a vehicle for data. The emerging methodologies are bundles of metrics and indicators that track biodiversity and ecological function.

    Biodiversity credits use metrics and indicators that track ecological function.
    Renee Raroa, CC BY-SA

    The data enable credit holders to make credible claims of biodiversity uplift, or avoided biodiversity loss, as a consequence of credit sales.

    As a representation of ecological reality, data are at least one step removed from the habitats and species they represent. This opens up the potential for nature markets to rely on the exchange of verifiable data, without the need to commodify nature itself, and therefore impinge on the ownership rights of Indigenous communities.

    However, data are not free from such considerations. To divert data into a system of market exchange raises a different but related set of concerns about ownership, benefit and sovereignty.

    The rise of Indigenous data sovereignty

    Indigenous data sovereignty is the right of Indigenous peoples to govern the collection, ownership and application of data about Indigenous communities, peoples, lands and resources. It relates to data produced by and about Indigenous peoples and the environments they have relationships with.

    Nature and people are precious, so data that represent nature and people are imbued with that preciousness. As Māori practitioner Ngapera Riley has written:

    Data is a taonga (treasure). It’s something that people gift us, and that we gift to others as we go about our daily lives.

    In te ao Māori, data come in many forms. This includes whakataukī (proverbs), moteatea (chants), whaikorero (oratory), maramataka (calendar), whakapapa (genealogies), pūrākau (stories) and increasingly digital forms.

    Consequently, we must take great care in how data are accessed, shared, stored and used. This is especially critical in a system of market exchange. The dominant markets of today are profit-driven, creating incentives for appropriation and exploitation.

    Sovereignty means power

    Indigenous peoples are conscious that, while there are risks in data and knowledge sharing, there are also opportunities. Indigenous data and knowledge is a living and evolving system, which can contribute to effective responses to environmental challenges, including the protection and regeneration of biodiversity.

    The principles of Indigenous data governance emerged from deliberations about how to protect Indigenous sovereignty when sharing knowledge and data for academic research. These CARE principles hold that Indigenous data should be governed for collective benefit, authority to control, responsibility and ethics.

    This is critically important in ecological research, which too often neglects duties relating to data about natural ecosystems and the people who live within them.

    It is troubling that the recognition of Indigenous data sovereignty is largely lacking from the discussion of nature markets so far. Unless Indigenous data sovereignty is upheld, the legitimacy of nature markets will likely be irreversibly tarnished.

    This is why, in a recent Biodiversity Credits Alliance discussion paper, we included Indigenous data sovereignty as a risk to be identified, understood and managed.

    But Indigenous data sovereignty is more than a risk: it is a source of power. It is a right to self-determination, to choose how data are used and their value is distributed. By ensuring this right, nature markets might deliver on their promise of inclusive, sustainable prosperity.

    David Hall is Policy Director for the Toha Network.

    Mike Taitoko is a shareholder of Toha Foundry Ltd and a Trustee of Toha Network Ltd.

    Nathalie Whitaker works for the Toha Network in various capacities, including shareholder of Toha Foundry and trustee of Toha Network Trust.

    Renee Raroa is the Establishment Director of the East Coast Exchange, a venture in the Toha Network.

    Tasman Turoa Gillies is Head of Operations for Takiwā, part of the Toha Network.

    – ref. ‘Nature markets’ may help preserve biodiversity – but they risk repeating colonial patterns of Indigenous exploitation – https://theconversation.com/nature-markets-may-help-preserve-biodiversity-but-they-risk-repeating-colonial-patterns-of-indigenous-exploitation-238579

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: More than 20% of Earth’s plant species are found only on islands – and time is running out to save them

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julian Schrader, Lecturer in Plant Ecology, Macquarie University

    Shutterstock

    Islands have long intrigued explorers and scientists. These isolated environments serve as natural laboratories for understanding how species evolve and adapt.

    Islands are also centres of species diversity. It has long been speculated that islands support exceptionally high amounts of global biodiversity, but the true extent was unknown until now.

    In world-first research published in Nature today, my colleagues and I counted and mapped the diversity of plant life on Earth’s islands. We found 21% of the world’s total plant species are endemic to islands, meaning they occur nowhere else on the planet.

    These findings are important. Island plants are at higher risk of extinction than those on mainlands. Detailed knowledge of plants species, and where they grow, is essential for monitoring and conserving them.

    Mapping island floras worldwide

    The study involved an international team of scientists. We developed an unprecedented database of vegetation information from more than 3,400 geographical regions worldwide, including about 2,000 islands.

    The definition of an island is somewhat arbitrary. Conventionally, an island is a landmass entirely surrounded by water and smaller than a continent. This means Tasmania and New Guinea are islands, but mainland Australia – a continent in itself – is not. This is the definition we used.

    We found 94,052 plant species, or 31% of the world’s total, are native to islands. Of these, 63,280 plant species, or 21%, only occur on islands.

    Endemic species were concentrated on large tropical islands such as Madagascar, New Guinea and Borneo. On Madagascar alone, 9,318 plant species – 83% of its total flora – grow there and nowhere else.

    Fewer plant species overall were found at ocean archipelagos such as Hawaii, the Canary Islands and the Mascarenes (east of Madagascar, including La Reunion and Mauritius). But a large share of their species were still unique to these islands.

    Two palms are endemic to Australia’s Lord Howe Island – Howea forsteriana and H. belmoreana. They are one of the best-researched examples of “sympatric speciation”, or in other words, species that evolve from a common ancestor at the same location.

    This mode of evolution has long been hypothesised to exist. But examples are rare, and highly useful for evolutionary research.

    The Norfolk Island Pine (Araucaria heterophylla) is, of course, named after the tiny island where it is found. This species, while endangered in the wild, is now widely planted along Australia’s beaches where it is instantly recognisable to us.

    Islands are of great conservation concern

    Islands cover just 5.3% of the world’s land area, but contribute disproportionately to global biodiversity.

    Island plants are at much greater risk of extinction than species found in mainland areas, for reasons such as:

    • small population sizes
    • unique evolutionary traits that make them vulnerable to invasive species such as herbivores
    • specific habitat requirements
    • habitat degradation
    • threats from invasive plant and animal species
    • climate change.

    Some 57% of the island-endemic species we assessed are considered critically endangered, endangered, vulnerable, or near-threatened, according to the International Union for Conservation of Nature.

    Alarmingly, 176 of plant species endemic to islands are already classified as extinct, accounting for 55% of all known extinct plant species globally. Among these is Hawaii’s vulcan palm (Brighamia insignis), which is now considered extinct in the wild. However, the species is popular as an ornamental plant and still survives in gardens.

    Hawaii’s vulcan palm is extinct in the wild, but is popular as an ornamental plant.
    Shutterstock

    Other species might be less lucky; extinction in the wild may mean being lost for ever.

    So, assessing the conservation status of island floras is important. Under a globally agreed United Nations target, 30% of the world’s land and oceans should be protected by 2030. We calculated how much of global islands is conserved today. Disappointingly, only 6% of endemic plant species occur on islands that meet this target.

    For instance, New Caledonia, Madagascar and New Guinea – known for their many endemic plant species – contain relatively low levels of protected areas.

    Assessing the conservation status of island floras is important.
    Shutterstock

    Protecting our island plants

    Urgent action is needed to protect island biodiversity. This includes expanding protected areas, prioritising regions with high numbers of endemic species, and implementing habitat restoration projects.

    Without such measures, the unique floral diversity of islands may continue to decline, with potentially severe consequences for global biodiversity.

    Much more research is needed to determined the best conservation strategies for all these plant species. Accurate data is vital to guide future conservation strategies and safeguard against further loss.

    Our study also serves as a stark reminder of the urgent need for targeted plant conservation efforts on islands. Many species teeter on the brink of extinction, and time is running out to preserve this irreplaceable natural heritage.

    Julian Schrader does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. More than 20% of Earth’s plant species are found only on islands – and time is running out to save them – https://theconversation.com/more-than-20-of-earths-plant-species-are-found-only-on-islands-and-time-is-running-out-to-save-them-238433

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ocean eddy currents funnel extreme heat and cold to the life-filled depths

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ming Feng, Senior Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO

    Letowa/Shutterstock

    On land, we’re familiar with heatwaves and cold snaps. But the deep sea also experiences prolonged periods of hot and cold.

    Marine heatwaves and cold spells can severely damage ocean ecosystems and habitats such as coral reefs. These extremes can also force species to move or die and cause sudden losses for fisheries.

    In research published today in Nature, we show almost half of the heatwaves and cold snaps reaching the ocean’s twilight zone – between 200 and 1,000 metres – are driven by large eddy currents, swirling currents which transport warm or cold water.

    As the oceans heat up, heatwaves linked to eddy currents are getting more intense – and so are cold snaps. These pose potential threats to the vast amount of life in the twilight zone, home to the world’s most abundant vertebrate and the largest migration on the planet.

    Monitoring the deep sea is hard

    About 90% of heat trapped by greenhouse gases has gone into the oceans. As a result, marine heatwaves are arriving more frequently – especially off Australia’s east coast, Tasmania, the northeast Pacific coast in the United States and in the North Atlantic.

    Researchers have long relied on satellite measurements of temperatures at the ocean surface to detect these extreme ocean temperature events. Surface temperatures are directly influenced by the atmosphere. But it’s different at depth.

    Satellites can’t measure temperatures under the surface, making the deep sea much harder to monitor.

    Instead, we have a handful of long-term moorings – measurement buoys suspended at depth – across the world’s oceans. These are hugely valuable, as they continuously record temperatures and make it possible to detect extremes temperature changes.

    In recent decades, there have been welcome advances in the form of Argo floats – robotic divers which dive 2,000 metres deep and resurface, sampling temperature and salinity as they go.

    Data from these two sources coupled with traditional measurements from vessels made our research possible.

    Heatwaves inside eddy currents

    The data gave us two million high quality temperature readings or “profiles” across the world’s oceans, spanning three decades. We used this rich data to uncover the role of eddy currents.

    Ocean eddies are huge loops of swirling current, sometimes hundreds of kilometres across and reaching down over 1,000 metres. They’re so large you can see them on satellite images.

    These powerful currents can push warm surface water down deeper or lift deep cold water up, causing rapid temperature changes. Eddies can travel a long distance before dissipating, carrying bodies of colder or warmer water with them.

    We discovered their role in triggering deep heatwaves and cold snaps by examining each temperature profile and cross-matching this with eddies present at the same time and location.

    This showed eddies played a major role in triggering marine heatwaves and cold spells in waters deeper than 100 metres – especially in the mid-latitude oceans north and south of the tropics.

    The East Australian Current takes warm water southward down the east coast, triggering many eddies. More than 70% of deeper marine heatwaves in this area actually took place inside ocean eddies.

    When eddies in this current spin anticlockwise, they tend to bring marine heatwaves, transporting warm water to the depths. But when they spin clockwise, they bring cold deep water up higher, bringing cold spells.

    We found deep extreme temperature events linked to eddies are seen more often in major ocean boundary currents, such as the East Australian and Kuroshio currents in the Pacific and the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic. Deep marine heatwaves also occur in the Leeuwin Current off Western Australia. The stronger the eddy currents, the more likely they are to trigger extreme temperatures deeper down.

    Eddy currents are the main driver for nearly half of all deep ocean heatwaves and cold spells. Other drivers include ocean temperature fronts from strong ocean currents and large-scale ocean waves.

    When eddy currents spin one way, they can send heat to the depths. When they spin another, they can bring cold water towards the surface.
    olrat/Shutterstock

    What does this mean for ocean life?

    Day in, day out, heat trapped by greenhouse gases makes its way to the oceans.

    You would expect marine heatwaves to increase, which they are. But cold snaps haven’t gone away. In fact, extremes of both heat and cold are getting more intense in the deeper ocean as the climate changes.

    Our research suggests eddy currents are acting to magnify the warming rates of marine heatwaves and the cooling rate of the cold spells. Warmer oceans overall are leading to stronger eddy currents, which in turn are able to trigger large temperature change over a greater vertical distance.

    Because we can detect ocean eddies with satellites, we can use this research to predict when deeper marine heatwaves and cold spells are likely. This will help find which ecosystems are likely to be hit by extreme heat or cold and assess what damage they do.

    The ocean layer these extremes affect is called the twilight zone – between 200 and 1,000 metres deep. These depths are home to many important fish species and plankton. In fact, this zone has more fish biomass than the rest of the ocean combined. One small fish, the bristlemouth, is likely the most abundant vertebrate on earth, potentially numbering in the quadrillions – thousands of trillions.

    The mesopelagic Twilight Zone is rich in life. Clockwise from top: mesopelagic jellyfish, viperfish, lanternfish, larvacean, copepod and squid.
    Wikimedia/Drazen et al, CC BY-NC-ND

    When night falls, vast numbers of fish, crustaceans and other creatures migrate towards the surface to feed in the largest animal migration on Earth. During the day, many open ocean fish head to the twilight to avoid sharks, whales and other surface predators.

    Heat and cold brought by eddies aren’t the only threat to the twilight zone. Marine heatwaves can lead to low oxygen levels in the water and reduced nutrients. We will need to find out what threat these combined changes pose to life in the twilight.

    Ming Feng receives funding from CSIRO, the Integrated Marine Observing System (IMOS), Western Australia State Government, and Fisheries Research and Development Corporation

    – ref. Ocean eddy currents funnel extreme heat and cold to the life-filled depths – https://theconversation.com/ocean-eddy-currents-funnel-extreme-heat-and-cold-to-the-life-filled-depths-241363

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: New research shows most space rocks crashing into Earth come from a single source

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Trevor Ireland, Professor, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland

    Makarov Konstantin/Shutterstock

    The sight of a fireball streaking across the sky brings wonder and excitement to children and adults alike. It’s a reminder that Earth is part of a much larger and incredibly dynamic system.

    Each year, roughly 17,000 of these fireballs not only enter Earth’s atmosphere, but survive the perilous journey to the surface. This gives scientists a valuable chance to study these rocky visitors from outer space.

    Scientists know that while some of these these meteorites come from the Moon and Mars, the majority come from asteroids. But two separate studies published in Nature today have gone a step further. The research was led by Miroslav Brož from Charles University in the Czech Republic, and Michaël Marsset from the European Southern Observatory in Chile.

    The papers trace the origin of most meteorites to just a handful of asteroid breakup events – and possibly even individual asteroids. In turn, they build our understanding of the events that shaped the history of the Earth – and the entire solar system.

    What is a meteorite?

    Only when a fireball reaches Earth’s surface is it called a meteorite. They are commonly designated as three types: stony meteorites, iron meteorites, and stony-iron meteorites.

    Stony meteorites come in two types.

    The most common are the chondrites, which have round objects inside that appear to have formed as melt droplets. These comprise 85% of all meteorites found on Earth.

    Most are known as “ordinary chondrites”. They are then divided into three broad classes – H, L and LL – based on the iron content of the meteorites and the distribution of iron and magnesium in the major minerals olivine and pyroxene. These silicate minerals are the mineral building blocks of our solar system and are common on Earth, being present in basalt.

    “Carbonaceous chondrites” are a distinct group. They contain high amounts of water in clay minerals, and organic materials such as amino acids. Chondrites have never been melted and are direct samples of the dust that originally formed the solar system.

    The less common of the two types of stony meteorites are the so-called “achondrites”. These do not have the distinctive round particles of chondrites, because they experienced melting on planetary bodies.

    An iron-nickel meteorite found near Fort Stockton, Texas, in 1952.
    JPL/Smithsonian Institution

    The asteroid belt

    Asteroids are the primary sources of meteorites.

    Most asteroids reside in a dense belt between Mars and Jupiter. The asteroid belt itself consists of millions of asteroids swept around and marshalled by the gravitational force of Jupiter.

    The interactions with Jupiter can perturb asteroid orbits and cause collisions. This results in debris, which can aggregate into rubble pile asteroids. These then take on lives of their own.

    It is asteroids of this type which the recent Hayabusa and Osiris-REx missions visited and returned samples from. These missions established the connection between distinct asteroid types and the meteorites that fall to Earth.

    S-class asteroids (akin to stony meteorites) are found on the inner regions of the belt, while C-class carbonaceous asteroids (akin to carbonaceous chondrites) are more commonly found in the outer regions of the belt.

    But, as the two Nature studies show, we can relate a specific meteorite type to its specific source asteroid in the main belt.

    Artist’s graphic of the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter.
    NASA/McREL

    One family of asteroids

    The two new studies place the sources of ordinary chondrite types into specific asteroid families – and most likely specific asteroids. This work requires painstaking back-tracking of meteoroid trajectories, observations of individual asteroids, and detailed modelling of the orbital evolution of parent bodies.

    The study led by Miroslav Brož reports that ordinary chondrites originate from collisions between asteroids larger than 30 kilometres in diameter that occurred less than 30 million years ago.

    The Koronis and Massalia asteroid families provide appropriate body sizes and are in a position that leads to material falling to Earth, based on detailed computer modelling. Of these families, asteroids Koronis and Karin are likely the dominant sources of H chondrites. Massalia (L) and Flora (LL) families are by far the main sources of L- and LL-like meteorites.

    The study led by Michaël Marsset further documents the origin of L chondrite meteorites from Massalia.

    It compiled spectroscopic data – that is, characteristic light intensities which can be fingerprints of different molecules – of asteroids in the belt between Mars and Jupiter. This showed that the composition of L chondrite meteorites on Earth is very similar to that of the Massalia family of asteroids.

    The scientists then used computer modelling to show an asteroid collision that occurred roughly 470 million years ago formed the Massalia family. Serendipitously, this collision also resulted in abundant fossil meteorites in Ordovician limestones in Sweden.

    In determining the source asteroid body, these reports provide the foundations for missions to visit the asteroids responsible for the most common outerspace visitors to Earth. In understanding these source asteroids, we can view the events that shaped our planetary system.

    Trevor Ireland receives funding from the Australian Research Council for research into the samples returned by the Hayabusa and Osiris-REx missions. He is a past President of the Meteoritical Society, the international organisation responsible for classification and cataloguing meteorites.

    – ref. New research shows most space rocks crashing into Earth come from a single source – https://theconversation.com/new-research-shows-most-space-rocks-crashing-into-earth-come-from-a-single-source-241455

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A new book reveals much of Trump’s success is based on a myth he is a self-made billionaire

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra

    Lucky Loser tells the story of Donald Trump’s less-than-stellar business career and how he was able to misrepresent it as a success.

    It is written by New York Times investigative journalists, Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig. Both have won Pulitzer Prizes for earlier analyses of Trump. Another badge of honour is Trump sued them – and lost.

    They are by no means the first writers to expose the Potemkin village that is Trump’s business empire. A telling insider account came from Trump’s niece, psychologist Mary Trump, who revealed the creator of Donald’s fortune was his father Fred.

    Lucky Loser: How Donald Trump Squandered His Father’s Fortune and Created the Illusion of Success – Russ Buettner and Susanne Craig (Bodley Head)

    Setting things straight

    However, at more than 500 pages, including more than 40
    pages of notes on sources, this new book is the most comprehensive rendering. It is detailed, clearly written and has been well-reviewed in the financial press and by economic historian Brad de Long.

    The authors aim to draw on financial statements and interviews to “set straight Donald Trump’s chaotic onslaught of untruths and misdirection”.

    A large part of the Trump mythology is the lie that he is a self-made billionaire. In the presidential debate with Hillary Clinton, Trump sought to downplay the contribution of his father, saying “my father gave me a very small loan”. The book reveals his father’s contribution, in today’s money, was around half a billion US dollars.

    Trump’s first piece of luck was being born the son of hard-working, cautious and competent residential property developer Fred Trump, the son of a German immigrant. His second was that Fred’s eldest son did not have the ruthless drive to become Fred’s successor, and Fred did not consider his daughters as potential successors. So despite some characteristics that were the antithesis of his father, Donald became his heir.

    The book describes Fred’s career in some detail. The first hundred pages are mostly about him. Once Fred stepped back, Trump diversified his father’s company to form what the authors term

    an eclectic conglomerate untethered from any core competency.

    Another piece of luck was been chosen to star in the reality television series The Apprentice, from which he made a lot of money, including from licensing deals, for the small amount of time he spent on it.

    The producers of this series have a lot to answer for, as they wanted to present their star as the astute businessman they knew him not to be. As they said, it was “not a documentary”. But it enormously and misleadingly raised Trump’s profile.

    Wins followed by losses

    The authors describe how some of Trump’s ventures, such as the development of Trump Tower, went well as the Manhattan property market boomed. He also profited from some “greenmailing” (buying shares in a company with the stated or implied intention of taking it over and then selling the shares at a higher price), facilitated by exaggerated accounts in the media of his wealth.

    But Trump used up much of the proceeds of his few successes covering his losses on a range of his other business ventures.

    Among his notable failures was Trump University, where he paid A$37 million to settle lawsuits for fraud. Many other property projects, Scottish golf courses, Trump Ice bottled water and Trump Mortgage, never turned a profit. And the punters were not the only ones losing money in Trump casinos.

    While he has fought to keep them secret, what has emerged from Trump’s tax returns are a series of huge losses.

    A conundrum not really addressed in the book is why so many bankers were willing to lend to him.



    Read more:
    What would a second Trump presidency mean for the global economy?

    The book concentrates on Trump’s career before the 2016 election, when the flawed US electoral system turned his almost 3 million vote loss on the popular vote into a win in the electoral college. As president, he disregarded conflicts of interest. As the authors note, parties wanting to influence the president could funnel money to him by booking blocks of rooms at his hotel.

    After 81 million Americans voted to fire him in 2020, Trump’s businesses again performed poorly.

    Trump’s current wealth is estimated by Forbes at A$5.7 billion (less than it was a decade ago). But about half of this is from his majority stake in Truth Social, promoted as a right-wing alternative to Twitter. (Now, it could be said, an even more right-wing forum than X.) It has tiny and falling revenues and makes large losses. If Trump loses the election, its value will probably soon be close to zero. It is regarded as a “meme stock”.

    Buettner and Craig conclude Trump “would have been better off betting on the sharemarket than on himself”. Analysis cited in The Economist in 2018 concluded that had Trump just put the money from his father into a sharemarket index fund he would have had A$2.9 billion in 2018. Given subsequent rises in the US stockmarket that would have grown to around A$5.9 billion by now, more than most estimates of his wealth.

    Forbes reached a similar conclusion, as did De Long and US political commentator Professor Robert Reich. The self-described business genius destroyed rather than created value.

    A poor tycoon and a poor president

    This business record of mismanaging an inheritance is reflected in Trump’s economic performance as president. He inherited the world’s largest economy from Obama. By the end of his term it was more than 10% smaller than China’s economy. Historians rank him one of the worst performing presidents on economic management (and much else). The public gave him the lowest approval ratings during his presidential term.

    Trump has indeed been a “lucky loser”. But if this deeply flawed man is returned to the presidency, the world will be an unlucky loser.



    Read more:
    From mass deportations to huge tariff hikes, here’s what Trump’s economic program would do to the US and Australia

    John Hawkins does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A new book reveals much of Trump’s success is based on a myth he is a self-made billionaire – https://theconversation.com/a-new-book-reveals-much-of-trumps-success-is-based-on-a-myth-he-is-a-self-made-billionaire-240648

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Social investment is back – and so are the risks of using data to target disadvantage

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Eileen Joy, Professional Teaching Fellow in Social Work, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Getty Images

    With the recent establishment of a new Social Investment Agency – described as a “driving project” for the government by Finance Minister Nicola Willis – it seems New Zealand has come full circle on this approach to social welfare.

    First championed by then finance minister Bill English in 2015, social investment was rebranded “social wellbeing” by Labour-led governments between 2017 and 2023. But Willis signalled before last year’s election that its time had come again.

    In a speech in 2022, she argued taxpayer money wasn’t being spent responsibly by the Labour administration, and that a targeted social investment approach was needed. During the 2023 election campaign, the National Party promised social investment would return.

    Essentially, the policy involves using data to calculate which groups of people cost the government the most over a lifetime. Interventions aimed at reducing that cost are then targeted at those people. The idea is that early investment saves later social costs.

    Right now, however, we don’t know the finer details of how Willis intends to implement the policy. But we do know how it worked in the past – and what lessons might be drawn from its earlier, short-lived implementation.

    An actuarial approach to welfare

    In New Zealand, the idea of social investment can be traced back to the fifth National government which held office for three terms between 2008 and 2017.

    In September 2015, English outlined his approach in a Treasury lecture, explaining how the government had commissioned Australian actuary firm Taylor Fry to calculate the lifetime welfare cost to the state of people on benefits.

    Typically, actuaries use statistics to calculate risk for insurance companies, information that is then used to set premiums. English said the Taylor Fry calculations would identify which beneficiary “is going to cost us the most money”.

    The answer was single parents receiving a benefit. Consequently, they were deemed most in need of direct government intervention, including giving an approved mentor control of their money.

    According to English’s version of social investment, data enabled the government to calculate the “forward liability” of its citizens, and target interventions accordingly.

    This is not the only way to define social investment, however, and other countries often adopt a more universal approach. For example, European models tend to focus on social equality and inclusivity rather than targeting specific groups.

    English’s model focused on applying benefit sanctions and conditions. The aim was to “reduce the lifetime public cost of the welfare-recipient population, thereby offering fiscal returns-on-investment, absorbed into public coffers”.

    A Social Investment Unit was created in 2016, followed by a Social Investment Agency in 2017. This was a standalone agency providing advice across government departments.

    Finance Minister Nicola Willis: social investment is a ‘driving project’ for the National-led government.
    Getty Images

    No accounting for structural disadvantage

    Official thinking about social investment predates the establishment of the unit and agency. In 2015, the second of two reports produced by an expert panel review of the Child, Youth and Family agency (now Oranga Tamariki) recommended a new child-centred social investment agency be created.

    The report’s analysis and advice focused on intervening early to reduce the risk of vulnerable children growing up to be beneficiaries, teen parents, substance users or prisoners (among other negative outcomes).

    It was suggested these potential future behaviours almost always stemmed from the actions (or inactions) of parents. Māori were identified as being especially costly due to their over-representation in child protection statistics. They were described as a “forward liability associated with poor outcomes”.

    The proposed response was early intervention and social investment. That would include the removal of very young children from whānau/families where they were perceived to be at high risk. The reasoning was that the predicted damage might then never eventuate, thereby saving taxpayer dollars.

    As my doctoral research found, no consideration in the report was given to the effects of systemic conditions such as poverty and the legacies of colonisation.

    Costs to the state

    The social investment model, with its emphasis on financial liability to the state, became a major influence on Oranga Tamariki’s practice.

    It led to an increase in the early removal of tamariki Māori, especially babies, from their birth families – as demonstrated in the 2019 Hawkes Bay “uplift” case, where social workers attempted to remove a Māori baby soon after birth.

    In 2017, the new Labour government promised a review of the Social Investment Agency, renaming it the Social Wellbeing Agency in 2020. The social development minister at the time, Carmel Sepuloni, said the agency would have a more holistic approach. Data would be only one of a number of considerations when delivering social services.

    But with the agency now reverting to its original name, the idea of using data to guide early intervention seems to be central again. It’s unclear, however, whether the actuarial approach of Bill English’s earlier model will return.

    Nicola Willis does seem to be aware of the criticism of the English-era model’s apparent focus on fiscal risk and returns. She has stressed that measuring other outcomes is also important.

    As yet, though, there is no indication the policy’s highly targeted approach to welfare will account for structural factors such as colonisation and poverty.

    Given the government’s drive to remove any special policy considerations based on te Tiriti of Waitangi/Treaty of Waitangi, the risk remains that some Māori will again come to be viewed as a “cost” to the state.

    Eileen Joy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Social investment is back – and so are the risks of using data to target disadvantage – https://theconversation.com/social-investment-is-back-and-so-are-the-risks-of-using-data-to-target-disadvantage-240799

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Jokowi was once seen as Indonesia’s ‘new hope’. Instead, he leaves a legacy of democratic backsliding

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Edward Aspinall, Professor in Southeast Asian Politics, Australian National University

    As Indonesia’s president Joko Widodo (Jokowi) prepares to leave office, Indonesia is still routinely lauded as one of Asia’s most important democracies. Jokowi was first elected, in 2014, on the promise of breaking with the old Jakarta elite and making government more responsive to ordinary people.

    He was backed by many ardent supporters of Indonesia’s Reformasi movement. This movement had brought down the authoritarian leader, Suharto, in 1998 and pushed a transition to democracy in the years that followed.

    But Jokowi has overseen a serious period of democratic backsliding.

    Democratic decline

    Under his watch, the Indonesian government has hobbled democratic control institutions. This includes Indonesia’s once-lauded Corruption Eradication Commission, abbreviated as KPK.

    Security agencies such the army and the police have begun to resume a political role.

    The government has banned major Islamic organisations.

    Civil society groups speak of a dramatically narrowed civic space. They complain, for example, about the government’s increasing reliance on the Electronic Information and Transactions Law to prosecute critics of the government for defamation and its growing willingness to use violent means to respond to protests.

    Jokowi’s opponents in the political elite are routinely investigated for corruption and other alleged wrongdoing.

    In last February’s presidential election, there were widespread reports the police and other agencies were pressuring community leaders to mobilise the vote for Jokowi’s preferred candidate, Prabowo Subianto.

    How and why does Jokowi leave this legacy?

    How did a man who was once seen as a “new hope” for Indonesian democracy end up here?

    The answer is part of a global story that has become broadly familiar in recent years.

    These days, it is generally not unelected coup leaders who destroy democracy. Experiences like those of Thailand and Myanmar in recent years are, happily, no longer typical.

    Instead, elected populist leaders hollow democracy out from within. They do so by hobbling institutions, such as anti-corruption commissions, which are meant to check executive power.

    Jokowi has, in my view, followed this pattern.

    Unlike many populists, Jokowi never peppered his early speeches with angry denunciations of his opponents as traitors. He never tried to whip up vitriol against vulnerable minorities.

    Instead, he positioned himself as a leader who was uniquely able to understand and to embody the aspirations of ordinary people.

    His trademark campaign method was known as blusukan. He would drop by unexpectedly at a marketplace, for example, to chat with ordinary people about prices and other everyday matters.

    Jokowi has positioned himself as a man of the people.
    BahbahAconk/Shutterstock

    A former mayor, he was interested in the nitty gritty of governance, such as how to improve transport services or upgrade parks. He was less interested in “abstract” notions like human rights.

    The implications of this philosophy only became apparent after Jokowi was elected president.

    He retained his belief in his own unique ability to understand the aspirations of ordinary citizens, which had been long neglected by elite politicians.

    He maintained a single-minded focus on what ordinary Indonesians wanted – improved living standards and better social welfare. And he used polls to regularly monitor public opinion.

    For Jokowi, maintaining popular support and satisfying public demands was the essence of democracy. He was not interested in institutions that place limits on governmental power, which are arguably just as important to a functioning democratic system.

    For example, his government enacted legal amendments that significantly weakened the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK).

    Late last year, the Constitutional Court – headed by his brother-in-law – changed the the rules on candidate age limits to allow Jokowi’s son, Gibran Rakabuming Raka, to stand for the vice presidency. Many Indonesians viewed this as a transparent – and successful – attempt to manipulate a key control institution for the purpose of maintaining Jokowi’s dynastic grip on power.

    Even so, as Jokowi leaves office, he does so a very popular politician.

    Prabowo as president

    Jokowi hands power to a man with an even more chequered democratic history.

    Prabowo Subianto is a former general with a record of alleged human rights abuses dating back to the late Suharto period. (Although, like other senior military officers accused of responsibility for the Suharto regime’s well-documented record of human rights abuses, he was never convicted of any crimes). Prabowo was close to the heart of that regime: indeed, he used to be Suharto’s son-in-law.

    Prabowo has promised he would provide the strong hand the country needed.
    Algi Febri Sugita/Shutterstock

    Prabowo has since reinvented himself as a fun-loving grandfather figure and Jokowi’s greatest fan, capitalising on the president’s own popularity.

    In fact, Prabowo used to be among Jokowi’s greatest rivals before becoming his defence minister in 2019.

    In previous elections, Prabowo presented himself as a firebrand populist who angrily denounced his opponents for allegedly selling Indonesia out to foreigners. He promised he would provide the strong hand the country needed to become truly great.

    We don’t know yet what kind of president Prabowo will be. His early political socialisation, as a leading elite figure close to the heart of the Suharto regime, suggests his instincts are likely to be deeply authoritarian.

    He inherits from Jokowi a country in which democratic institutions have already been seriously undermined, and a series of lessons in how to weaken them further.

    Edward Aspinall has received funding from the ARC and DFAT.

    – ref. Jokowi was once seen as Indonesia’s ‘new hope’. Instead, he leaves a legacy of democratic backsliding – https://theconversation.com/jokowi-was-once-seen-as-indonesias-new-hope-instead-he-leaves-a-legacy-of-democratic-backsliding-237319

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why China now wants to put some limits on its ‘no limits’ friendship with Russia

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Guangyi Pan, Teaching fellow, international politics, UNSW Sydney

    Just before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China announced to much fanfare a “no-limits friendship” with Russia, suggesting a future of close collaboration in trade, energy and, perhaps most importantly, security.

    Now, more than two years into the war, the meaning and interpretation of this “no-limits” commitment has evolved.

    There has been much debate in Chinese society in recent months about Beijing’s alignment with Moscow. While some have advocated for a more formal alliance with Russia, others have taken a more cautious stance.

    In sharp contrast to 2022, China’s growing wariness is increasingly being discussed in the open, even among those who were previously censored. In early 2022, for instance, a joint letter by six Chinese emeritus historians opposing Russia’s invasion was censored by the government. The scholars were also warned.

    Now, however, it appears the government is seeking to balance its relationships with both Russia and the West. Beijing may not want to be seen as a “decisive enabler” of the war.

    For example, the once-prominent “no-limits” friendship language quietly vanished from a Sino-Russian joint statement in May.

    And Beijing’s response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit that month was notably subdued. Putin ingratiated himself with Xi, saying they were “as close as brothers”. Xi’s response was more perfunctory – he called Putin a “good friend and a good neighbour”.

    Scholars are also articulating their concerns about China’s political and economic investments in Russia, both publicly and privately.

    Shen Dingli, a leading scholar of Chinese security strategy at Fudan University in Shanghai, said China doesn’t want to be seen as collaborating with Russia against Ukraine or any other country.

    He also quoted Fu Cong, China’s former ambassador to the European Union, who said last year the “no-limits” [friendship] is “nothing but rhetoric”.

    And in August, after Putin referred to China as an “ally” during a visit to far-eastern Russia, Chinese scholars promptly sought to clarify this statement to prevent any misunderstanding China wants a formal alliance with Russia.

    These statements carry weight. In many respects, leading Chinese scholars at the government-affiliated universities act as propagandists to convey and justify the government’s stance on issues. As a result, subtle shifts in their commentary provide insights into the strategic mindset in Beijing.

    Why China is rethinking its ‘no-limits’ friendship?

    There are three elements driving this re-evaluation of the Russia-China alignment.

    First, there is growing scepticism of Russia’s state capacities. The mutiny by the Wagner Group last year and Ukraine’s recent incursion into Russia’s Kursk region have prompted critical reassessments in Beijing of Russia’s political stability and military preparedness, as well as the growing anti-war sentiment in Russia.

    As Feng Yujun, director of Fudan University’s Russia and Central Asia Study Centre, argued, the Wagner rebellion was a reflection of Russia’s internal conflicts and domestic security challenges. He noted every time Russia has faced both internal and external crises in history, its regimes have become less stable.

    More recently, Feng has been even bolder, predicting Russian defeat in Ukraine. He argued China should keep its distance from Moscow and resume a policy of “non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-partisanship”.

    Second, China’s sluggish economy and its underwhelming trade with Russia have further exposed how dependent both countries are on the West.

    While Russia-China trade reached a record US$240 billion (A$360 billion) in 2023, it has slowed so far this year, as Chinese financial institutions have sought to limit connections with Russia.

    The relationship still heavily favours Beijing. Russia accounts for only 4% of China’s trade, while China accounts for nearly 22% of Russia’s trade.

    Many Chinese experts are now warning against an over-dependence on Russia, instead calling for more cooperation with neighbouring countries. This echoes a recent concern Russia has been using its natural resources as a bargaining chip to extract greater benefits from China.

    Russia’s value as a military ally

    Finally, there are rising Chinese concerns its international outlook does not align with Russia’s.

    Zhao Long, deputy director of the Shanghai Institute of International Relations, says there is an important difference in how they view the world:

    Russia wants to destroy the current international system to build a new one. China wants to transform the current system by taking a more prominent place in it.

    Shi Yinhong, a strategist at Renmin University in Beijing, has highlighted an unbridgeable gap preventing a stronger China-Russia alliance. He says there’s a deep mutual mistrust on regional security. Russia has never promised support for China in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, just as China has avoided involvement in the war in Ukraine.

    As Russia’s war in Ukraine reaches a stalemate, its value as a military ally is increasingly being questioned in China.

    Recently, Feng Yujun warned China risks being led by the nose by Russia, despite being the stronger economic partner. He says every time China has attempted an alliance with Russia in history, it has had negative consequences for China.

    Consequently, it is crucial for China to maintain its long-term partnership with Russia without undermining its constructive relationship with the West.

    Russia has arguably benefited from the current competition between the US and China, as it has sought to exploit the rivalry for its own benefit. But this has also led to uncertainty in the China-Russia relationship.

    As another analyst, Ji Zhiye, argues, relying too heavily on Russia will leave China isolated and vulnerable. And this is not a position China wants to be in.

    Guangyi Pan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why China now wants to put some limits on its ‘no limits’ friendship with Russia – https://theconversation.com/why-china-now-wants-to-put-some-limits-on-its-no-limits-friendship-with-russia-238436

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The government has a target for Indigenous digital inclusion. It’s got little hope of meeting it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bronwyn Carlson, Professor, Critical Indigenous Studies and Director of The Centre for Global Indigenous Futures, Macquarie University

    Digital inclusion for Indigenous communities is important. It’s so important, in fact, that the government has made it one of the targets under the Closing The Gap plan. The goal is:

    by 2026, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people have equal levels of digital inclusion.

    Digital exclusion is the continuing unequal access and capacity to use digital technology that is essential to participate fully in society.

    It severely stifles Indigenous creativity. It restricts access to essential tools, skills and platforms that are crucial for digital expression and innovation.

    For many Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, this exclusion leads to missed opportunities, particularly in areas linked to economic prosperity, such as employment and education. As the government’s policy focus is on economic empowerment, this is a major barrier.

    Measuring progress towards the 2026 deadline is challenging because there are simply no recent data.

    But given how big the gap was to start with, the lack of importance based on gathering relevant data and the insufficient government action since, we know the target is highly unlikely to be met.



    Read more:
    ‘Digital inclusion’ and closing the gap: how First Nations leadership is key to getting remote communities online

    What’s being done?

    To support the goal, the First Nations Digital Inclusion Plan offers a comprehensive strategy focused on three key pillars:

    • access (to telecommunication services, devices, and data)

    • affordability (the cost of services, devices, and data)

    • ability (skills, attitudes, and confidence with technology).

    Focused mostly on remote communities, initiatives such as the Australian Digital Inclusion Index highlight persistent challenges across all three areas.

    Although digital inclusion is an urgent issue in remote areas, research also shows Indigenous populations face widespread digital exclusion across the nation, regardless of remoteness.

    Some 84.6% (832,800) of Indigenous people live in non-remote areas. Many of these people are also excluded.

    Last year, the government established an advisory group to drive progress.

    It has developed a “road map”. This involves travelling to Indigenous communities across Australia to ensure their diverse needs, aspirations and environments are fully considered.

    Despite these ongoing government initiatives and policies, efforts to close the digital divide for Indigenous peoples remain insufficient. As technology continues to advance, Indigenous communities are left in an increasingly precarious situation.

    The rise of artificial intelligence

    The government’s current plans do not explicitly address the role of artificial intelligence (AI). This oversight is particularly concerning given the rapid advancement of AI technologies.

    A recent report on adult media literacy in Australia reveals 48% of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander participants do not understand what AI is or the risks and opportunities it presents. This knowledge gap could further exacerbate the digital divide and deepen existing inequalities.

    AI presents both opportunities and challenges. When led by Indigenous people, it holds transformative potential across multiple sectors.

    It could enhance learning tailored to Indigenous knowledge systems, help in the revitalisation and preservation of languages, and improve healthcare delivery. It could also empower Indigenous businesses by optimising operations and market reach.



    Read more:
    AI affects everyone – including Indigenous people. It’s time we have a say in how it’s built

    Indigenous people are already collaborating on research that combines Indigenous knowledge with AI to support land-management practices.

    There are very few Indigenous-led AI projects underway nationally, but there’s great potential. With Indigenous people helping develop AI, these technologies could contribute to meaningful, self-determined growth across Indigenous communities.

    But only if we’re included.

    Avoiding exploitation

    Indigenous digital exclusion, especially in policy development and regulation, can result in AI being used by non-Indigenous people to tell our stories without our permission.

    They can profit from appropriation of our culture, including art and languages.

    The government needs to adopt a more comprehensive and forward-thinking approach. This should involve expanding the scope of digital inclusion initiatives beyond the current limited focus to encompass Indigenous communities across the entire country.

    The development of Indigenous-led digital literacy programs that respect learning styles and culture is also essential.

    The government should incorporate AI and other emerging technologies into planning to ensure Indigenous communities are not left behind.

    Establishing long-term partnerships with technology companies, educational institutions and Indigenous organisations to create sustainable digital inclusion programs is vital.

    The focus should be on creating Indigenous-led opportunities that leverage digital technologies for economic empowerment without exploiting or harming.

    Underrepresented in tech

    One barrier to this is there are very few Indigenous peoples involved in the tech industry, especially in decision-making roles and policy development.

    As of 2022, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people accounted for less than 1.4% of tech workers. There urgently needs to be more support to boost this figure.

    That’s because technology like AI presents potential careers for Indigenous people.

    Currently however, Indigenous peoples are not employed in the industries involved in AI. Of the global study of people working in this specific industry, Indigenous participation was not noted.

    The fact the government recognises digital inclusion as a national priority is a positive step. The current approach, however, is piecemeal and limited. We need a more holistic strategy.

    By developing more inclusive, technologically advanced policies led by Indigenous people, the government can ensure they are not left behind in the digital age. We need to be at the decision-making table.

    Closing the digital divide requires a multifaceted, long-term commitment from government. This means a national strategy recognising the diverse needs and aspirations of Indigenous communities across the country.

    By harnessing the full potential of digital technologies, including AI, and addressing the unique challenges faced by Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, the government can create lasting positive change and truly empower Indigenous communities in the digital era.

    Bronwyn Carlson is a member of the First Nations Digital Inclusion Advisory Council.

    – ref. The government has a target for Indigenous digital inclusion. It’s got little hope of meeting it – https://theconversation.com/the-government-has-a-target-for-indigenous-digital-inclusion-its-got-little-hope-of-meeting-it-239733

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Should King Charles apologise for the genocide of First Nations people when he visits Australia?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rebe Taylor, Associate Professor of History, University of Tasmania

    King Charles and Queen Camilla will visit Australia from Friday on a five-day tour of Canberra and Sydney.

    The king will be the second ruling British monarch to visit Australia, after Queen Elizabeth II’s 16 visits over 57 years.

    These visits showcase Australians’ evolving relationship with the monarchy and our colonial past.

    Changing attitudes

    An estimated 75% of Australians greeted Elizabeth on her first tour in 1954, at events that celebrated Australia’s growth as a prosperous nation.

    Historical milestones remained central to the queen’s subsequent visits.

    In 1970, she attended the re-enactment of Captain Cook’s arrival at Botany Bay. This included depictions of shooting at First Nations actors.

    The queen’s 1986 visit included signing the Australia Act that severed Britain’s formal powers over Australia.

    Her 1988 visit coincided with the Australian bicentenary of the arrival of the First Fleet carrying convicts and officials from Britain. But by this time, many Australians had lost their royal fervour.

    Her final tour, in 2011, came 12 years after Australia had attempted to become a republic by referendum.

    The queen’s death in 2022 not only reignited questions over the future of the monarchy in Australia, it instigated a public discussion over the monarchy’s role in imperial colonialism.

    Genocide in Australia?

    On the eve of Charles’ coronation in 2023, Indigenous leaders from 12 settler states including Australia and New Zealand cosigned a letter calling on the new monarch to apologise for the genocides that British colonisation brought to their territories.

    Australia was settled in the name of the Kingdom of Great Britain. Did that settlement result in genocide?

    Recent research led by Ben Kiernan for The Cambridge World History of Genocide has investigated this question using the 1948 United Nations Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide as a framework.

    The convention defines genocide as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group”.

    The term “genocide” itself is modern; coined by Raphael Lemkin in 1944. The colonisation of Tasmania by the British provided Lemkin with one of the clearest examples.

    The prosecution of crimes before 1951 is not permissible under the convention, which provides a definitional framework to evaluate past events as constituent acts of genocide.

    The Cambridge World History of Genocide Volume II and Volume III demonstrate how settlers and government agents committed acts of genocide against First Nations Australians from the beginning of settlement to the late 20th centuries.

    All parts of Australia are considered. Acts conforming to the convention’s clauses include killing, forcibly removing children and inflicting destructive conditions.

    Australian historian Lyndall Ryan’s chapter, Frontier Massacres in Australia, draws on her research for a Massacre Map showing how British troops and settlers committed more than 290 massacres across Australia between 1794 and 1928.

    These massacres killed more than 7,500 Aboriginal people.

    Ryan found the massacres were not sporadic and isolated – they were planned and sanctioned killings, integral to the aims of the Australian colonial project.

    Rebe Taylor’s chapter on genocide in Tasmania details a pattern of government-sanctioned mass killings in a colony where an estimated 6,000 Palawa (Tasmanian Aboriginal) people were reduced to about 120 by 1835.

    Raymond Evans shows how as colonisation moved northward in Australia, massacres increased in size.

    Evans documents killings that persisted into the 1940s, postdating the 1928 Coniston massacre widely regarded as the last frontier slaughter.

    These findings are underscored by Tony Barta’s insight that colonists’ destructive actions constitute a record of genocidal intent “more powerful than any documented plot to destroy a people”.

    Research by Anna Haebich documents the taking of Indigenous children during the 19th century.

    Joanna Cruikshank and Crystal Mckinnon explain how these state-sanctioned removals in the 20th century were intended to eliminate First Nations people from Australia’s national life.

    The 1997 Bringing Them Home report, commissioned by the Human Rights and Equal Opportunity Commission, concluded the “Australian practice of Indigenous child removal involved […] genocide as defined by international law”.

    A significant moment of resistance

    The colonial governor of Tasmania began to exile Palawa people from their land in 1829.

    More than 200 survivors of the “Black War” were removed to Flinders Island and subjected to life-threateningly harsh conditions. High death rates were caused by ill-treatment, disease and insufficient care.

    In 1846, the Palawa petitioned Queen Victoria to honour the agreement made when they were removed: that in exchange for temporarily leaving their country, they would regain their freedom.

    In this bold petition, Tasmanian Aboriginal people initiated a historic appeal to the British monarchy.

    Aware of Queen Victoria’s sovereign authority across the vast British Empire, this action marked a significant moment in their continued resistance to genocide.

    An acknowledgement of wrongs

    British sovereignty over Australia was imposed without the required consent of its First Nations. The result has been continued dispossession and suffering.

    Despite the Crown’s deferral of power to its parliament, the call for an apology from the king has immense symbolic importance.

    It is rooted in the desire for acknowledgement of wrongs. These include genocide and the continuing destructive effects of colonisation across Australia.

    Rebe Taylor receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Greg Lehman receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australian Institute of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Studies. He is a member of the Board of the Tasmanian Land Conservancy.

    – ref. Should King Charles apologise for the genocide of First Nations people when he visits Australia? – https://theconversation.com/should-king-charles-apologise-for-the-genocide-of-first-nations-people-when-he-visits-australia-239092

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Mounjaro is more effective for weight loss than Ozempic. So how does it work? And why does it cost so much?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Joyce, Senior Research Fellow, University of South Australia

    Halfpoint/Shutterstock

    A weight-loss drug more effective than Ozempic and Wegovy has recently been approved in Australia.

    The drug, tirzepatide, is sold under the brand name Mounjaro and affects feelings of hunger and fullness, as well as changing how the body processess food. (In other countries, tirzepatide is also sound under the brand name Zepbound.)

    So how does tirzepatide work and differ from Ozempic? And with a price tage of $315–$645 per month for the starting dose, why is it so expensive?

    How does it work?

    Think of tirzepatide as a master key that unlocks two important doors in your body’s weight control system. It mimics two hormones: GLP-1 (glucagon-like peptide-1) and GIP (glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide).

    When you eat, your body naturally releases GIP and GLP-1 hormones. These hormones play crucial roles in regulating appetite, food intake and blood sugar levels. Tirzepatide mimics and amplifies the effects of these hormones.

    By mimicking the GLP-1 and GIP hormones, tirzepatide makes people feel fuller with smaller meals. This can reduce the overall food intake and lead to weight loss over time.

    It also helps your body process sugar more effectively and slows down how quickly food leaves your stomach. This results in eating less, feel satisfied for longer and having healthier blood sugar levels.

    How does it compare with Wegovy/Ozempic?

    Tirzepatide (Mounjaro) and semaglutide (Wegovy/Ozempic) are similar in many ways. Both are injectable medications used for weight loss and work by mimicking hormones that regulate appetite and blood sugar.

    The key difference is that tirzepatide acts on two hormone receptors (GIP and GLP-1), while semaglutide only acts on one (GLP-1). This dual action is thought to be why tirzepatide shows slightly better results for weight loss in clinical trials.

    Clinical trials have shown participants lost an average of 25% of their body fat in the first year of treatment with tirzepatide. This is when combined with lifestyle counselling from a health-care professional who encouraged a healthy and reduced-calorie diet (500 calories less per day compared to patient’s diet at the beginning of the study) and at least 150 minutes of physical activity per day.

    This compares with an average of 15% weight loss in the first year for semaglutide, also alongside a reduced-calorie diet (a 500 calorie-deficit per day) and increased physical exercise (150 minutes per week).

    For a person weighing 120kg, this might mean the difference between losing 30kg with tirzepatide versus 18kg with semaglutide. But of course, with both drugs, some people will lose less weight than the average, some will lose more, and some may not respond to the drug at all.

    What are the side effects of tirzepatide?

    Like any medication, tirzepatide has side effects. The most common are nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and constipation. These could feel like a mild tummy bug and are similar to those seen with semaglutide.

    For most people, these side effects are manageable and often improve over time.

    There are also some rarer, more serious risks to consider. These include inflammation of the pancreas and gallbladder problems. There is also a potential increased risk for thyroid cancer, although this has only been seen in lab rats so far, not humans.

    As with Ozempic and Wegovy, when you stop taking tirzepatide, its effects stop. Most people regain some, if not all, of the weight they lost.

    People often regain some or all of the weight they lost after stopping the medication.
    /John Hanson PyeShutterstock

    Who can access tirzepatide?

    In Australia, tirzepatide is approved for use in adults with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or higher, or a or BMI of 27 or above if you have a weight-related health condition such as diabetes. It can only be prescribed by a doctor, after you have tried other weight-loss methods.

    But it’s not suitable for everyone. It shouldn’t be used in pregnancy and may not be suitable for people with certain medical conditions and those with a history of eating disorders.

    If you’re considering tirzepatide, it’s important to discuss the benefits and risks for your personal health situation with your doctor.

    Why is it so expensive?

    Tirzepatide typically costs around A$345 per month for the starting dose. This can escalate to $645 per month for the ongoing “maintenance” dose if a higher dose is necessary for diabetes and/or weight management. This puts the drug out of reach for most people.

    Tirzepatide, sold as Mounjaro in Australia, is only available on private prescription and is not subsidised by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS). This means you pay the full cost of the medication without any government support.

    However, the United Kingdom recently announced it would add tirzepatide to the National Health Service in a phased approach over the next three years, so it’s possible we might see it subsidised in Australia in the future.

    Developing new drugs is a costly business. Companies spend billions on research, clinical trials, and getting regulatory approvals. They then set high prices to recoup these costs and make a profit.

    The patent for tirzepatide lasts until 2036. So we won’t have any cheaper generic versions for more than a decade.

    Paul Joyce receives funding from The Hospital Research Foundation, Cancer Council SA, and the Australian Research Council. He is Director of the Australian Controlled Release Society.

    Srinivas Kamath does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Mounjaro is more effective for weight loss than Ozempic. So how does it work? And why does it cost so much? – https://theconversation.com/mounjaro-is-more-effective-for-weight-loss-than-ozempic-so-how-does-it-work-and-why-does-it-cost-so-much-239185

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Overtly handmade and so very moving: Adam Elliot’s Memoir of A Snail is a stop motion triumph

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jack McGrath, Lecturer in Animation at the University of Newcastle, University of Newcastle

    Many iconic Melbourne sights, including Luna Park, feature in Adam Elliot’s new film. Madmad Entertainment

    Stop motion films are by their nature a remarkable feat. When you know a movie has been carefully crafted, over several years and through thousands of photographs of handmade sets and characters, this alone makes it a delight to watch.

    But when the story is also deep, thought-provoking and at times laugh-out-loud funny, this takes the medium to a whole new level. Adam Elliot’s Memoir of a Snail is such a film.

    Told through stop motion animation using clay (otherwise known as claymation), the film is a tactile experience in which everything you see has been made by human hands. This provides a warmth that is exacerbated by Elliot’s very human story of identity.

    The film explores how it can be difficult to find your way in life, particularly when you’re different – and that it is, in fact, OK to be different.

    Grace Pudel, the protagonist, is a snail enthusiast and we follow her as she navigates the many challenges that emerge in her life. Grace’s narration is raw and honest, and we can’t help but feel a deep connection with her.

    The story is so human and so very moving – and to be told through human-made characters perfectly rounds off the experience.

    Grace is a hoarder of ornamental snails, romance novels and guinea pigs.
    Madman Entertainment

    A win at Annecy

    In June, I was fortunate enough to help facilitate an animation study tour in France with students from the University of Newcastle. It was there we saw the world premiere of Memoir of a Snail at the Annecy International Animation Film Festival, the pre-eminent festival for animated film.

    The story clearly resonated with the audience, who sat captivated throughout its 90-minute runtime. They laughed and cried in unison as one engaged mass of humanity – culminating in a long and enthusiastic standing ovation.

    We were even lucky enough to bump into Elliot and his crew, and our students spoke with him about his journey in making Memoir of a Snail. The film went on to win the festival’s prestigious Cristal award for best feature.

    More than 7,000 individual items were handcrafted by various artisans, with most objects made from clay, wire, paper, paint and silicon.
    Madman Entertainment

    While claymation is generally viewed as a medium aimed at young audiences, Memoir of a Snail tells a wholly unique adult story.

    Much of its sophistication lies in its ability to effortlessly touch on many complex topics through a mixture of humour and emotion. Indeed, this approach to storytelling has become Elliot’s calling card.

    The film’s themes include identity, loneliness, alcoholism, cultism, hoarding, suicide, homosexuality, bullying, ageing, family, fat fetishism, grief and death. The story cleverly pulls you into deep thought, before surprising you with a hilarious gag.

    Grace (voiced by Sarah Snook) strikes up friendship with an eccentric elderly woman named Pinky (Jacki Weaver).
    Madman Entertainment

    Elliot’s dark and captivating aesthetic

    When introducing the film at Annecy, Elliot explained how his team’s limited budget led to a heavy reliance on narration, with limited walking and dialogue shots. Yet these constraints seemed to enhance the team’s creativity rather than stifle it.

    Elliot has a history of working around such limitations to bring his unique aesthetic to life. His first film Uncle (1996) was shot on 16mm black-and-white film, while his other short Cousin (1999) was shot on colour – but with a muted palette of grey tones.

    This palette has carried through Elliot’s work and is present in Memoir of a Snail. His version of the Australian landscape isn’t orange and sun-bleached. Rather, it is grey, overcast and drab – a dark world resembling the work of Eastern European animators such as Jan Švankmajer.

    Elliot’s other films include Brother (2000), the Oscar-winning short film Harvie Krumpet (2003) and his first feature film Mary and Max (2009).

    His works present tortured individuals – outsiders, misfits and oddballs – living in dark, suburban worlds. Behind the funny-looking faces and humorous vignettes lie deeper afflictions that become clear as the characters struggle through their lives.

    More than 1,000 plasticine mouths had to be made so the characters could talk.
    Madman Entertainment

    A gentle vulnerability shines through

    Elliot brings a naivety to the narration, where a simple statement of facts couches a deeper meaning. As the audience, we uncover mixed feelings of humour, dread and empathy for the tortured blobs of clay before us.

    The characters stand, blinking, looking back at us while the narrator describes their situation. They feel vulnerable, as though asking for our help as they stand silently, trapped in Elliot’s bleak world.

    Grace falls into dark spiral after she is seperated from her twin brother Gilbert (Kodi Smit-McPhee) at a young age).
    Madman Entertainment

    Memoir of a Snail maintains a strong sense of materiality, as evidenced by fingerprints left on clay and brush strokes on painted backgrounds. Elliot’s self-described “chunky wonky” aesthetic abides by the rule that nothing in the world is straight.

    Almost everything in Elliot’s animated world is overtly handmade, presenting a kind of nostalgic and childlike innocence you’d expect from a school project. This helps add weight and authenticity to the film.

    The 3D work intersects with thoughtfully crafted 2D items such as handwritten title cards and signs.
    Madman Entertainment

    Elliot’s world is created “in-camera”, which means no digital effects were used. Water, for example, was created using cellophane, while droplets were painstakingly animated with blobs of glycerine, one frame at a time.

    Welcome relief in a hyper-digital world

    Lately, Australian animation has found an international audience and this has emboldened Australian animators to tell Australian stories. Bluey, for instance, has struck a chord with viewers globally because of – and not despite – its uniquely Australian voice.

    It took eight years to create Memoir of a Snail, which seems like a lifetime in today’s world. Witnessing such dedication may inspire audiences to think more deeply about animation as an art form and about film-making itself.

    Elliot’s handmade style is a nice counter to the digital and visual effects that seem ever-present in media today.
    Madman Entertainment

    Memoir of a Snail is a testament to stop motion’s power to move people. Elliot himself pointed out how stop motion seems to be experiencing a renaissance, with Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio (2022), Phil Tippett’s Mad God (2021), Henry Selick’s Wendell & Wild (2022) and Chris Butler’s Missing Link (2019) all serving as recent examples of stop motion features.

    I hope Memoir of a Snail helps sustain this interest. In an age of automation and artificial intelligence, the film is a welcome return to the human experience. Thought-provoking, funny and wholly unique in its story and visual style, it’s well worth the watch.

    Other voice actors on the production include Eric Bana, Nick Cave and Tony Armstrong.
    Madman Entertainment

    The author would like to thank Daisy De Windt for her contributions to this article.

    Jack McGrath does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Overtly handmade and so very moving: Adam Elliot’s Memoir of A Snail is a stop motion triumph – https://theconversation.com/overtly-handmade-and-so-very-moving-adam-elliots-memoir-of-a-snail-is-a-stop-motion-triumph-233105

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Glucose monitors for diabetes have finally been funded – but a chronic workforce shortage will limit the benefits

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lynne Chepulis, Associate Professor, Health Sciences, University of Waikato

    Pharmac’s decision to fund continuous glucose monitors and automated insulin delivery systems for the approximately 18,000 people who currently live with type 1 diabetes in Aotearoa New Zealand is good news.

    The decision comes after years of advocacy from patient groups and clinicians.

    But there are problems within the broader system – particularly around workforce shortages – that mean full patient access to training on how to use the insulin pumps will likely take years.

    Failing to address these issues will also perpetuate health inequities for Māori and Pacific people, who are less likely to have used the monitor and pump in the past, and may have to wait longer for training. These delays could mute the positive effect of Pharmac’s funding decision.

    A complex balance

    Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disorder that causes a person’s pancreas to stop producing insulin. This all-important hormone is needed to move glucose into every cell in the body.

    Without insulin, the cells (and the person) “starve”. While the current approach to the management of type 1 diabetes – finger pricking to test blood glucose levels and injecting insulin – works, it’s complex.

    Inject too much insulin and you’ll get low blood sugar (hypoglycaemia). This leaves a person with type 1 feeling shaky and weak, or possibly even in a coma. Don’t inject enough and you have ongoing high blood sugar (hyperglycaemia). This leads to long-term health complications.

    Figuring out the right amount of insulin is elusive. Needs constantly vary according to time of day, diet, exercise, illness, caffeine, alcohol, stress and other factors. This can take a toll psychologically and physiologically.

    Modern solutions

    Continuous monitors track blood glucose levels 24 hours a day through a sensor just under your skin, replacing finger-prick testing. They are widely funded and used overseas.

    The monitors alert users to low blood glucose and have significantly reduced hospitalisations for people with type 1 diabetes.

    Combining the monitors with a pump and appropriate algorithm automates the delivery of insulin when glucose levels rise higher than a patient’s target range – significantly reducing the day-to-day burden of treatment.

    But the continuous monitors and insulin pumps are expensive.

    Prior to Pharmac’s decision, the monitors were completely unfunded. Prices ranged between NZ$2,600 and $4,800 per year. Insulin pumps were funded, but only for a small group of people.

    This created an ever-widening equity gap. Māori and Pacific people with type 1 diabetes were less likely to access monitors and pumps. They were also more likely to have recurrent hospitalisations for diabetes-related events.

    A workforce shortage

    When compared with other countries, New Zealand has been slow to fund the monitors.

    Unfortunately, the diabetes workforce is also significantly understaffed when compared to international guidelines.

    There is a shortage of all qualified health care professionals for type 1 diabetes including endocrinologists, nurse practitioners, diabetes nurse specialists, dietitians, psychologists, social workers and podiatrists.

    To meet international recommendations, New Zealand would have to more than double the clinical workforce.

    Most people with type 1 diabetes will be able to rapidly access the monitors because these can be prescribed through GPs as well as by diabetes specialists. However, insulin pumps and automated insulin delivery will only be accessible through specialists.

    While insulin pumps offer advantages for managing glucose levels, learning to use the device takes time and requires support from clinicians. This will likely be a problem, particularly for those who already have challenges accessing healthcare services in this country.

    An equity issue

    Māori and Pacific people with type 1 diabetes are less likely to be current insulin pump users. This means there is a clear risk of workforce shortages causing those who would benefit most from automated insulin delivery to be among the last to have access.

    Increasingly, evidence on continuous glucose monitors and automated insulin delivery shows they improve managing type 1 diabetes for everyone.

    Monitor use has been shown to reduce the differences in the management of glucose levels between Māori and non-Māori children with type 1 diabetes.

    Automated insulin delivery can also be an effective tool for children and adolescents with very high-risk glucose levels.

    So, thank you Pharmac. Funded devices are a game changer. New Zealand has moved from an outdated, inequitable system of technology funding in type 1 diabetes to a progressive and fair system. But so much more needs to be done to support everyone with this disease.

    Lynne Chepulis receives funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand. She is an executive member of the New Zealand Society for the Study of Diabetes.

    Hamish Crocket receives funding from the Health Research Council of New Zealand. He is an executive member of the New Zealand Society for the Study of Diabetes and is the chairperson of Nightscout New Zealand, a diabetes advocacy group. Hamish has been living with type one diabetes since 2013.

    Martin de Bock receives funding from Novo Nordisk, Medtronic, Ypsomed, Dexcom, and Insulet. Honoraria, travel expenses or speaking fees from Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Pfizer, Medtronic, Boerhinger Ingelheim, Ypsomed, Dexcom, and Insulet. Advisory Boards for Tandem and Dexcom, Tautoko Tech, Nascence biomedical.

    – ref. Glucose monitors for diabetes have finally been funded – but a chronic workforce shortage will limit the benefits – https://theconversation.com/glucose-monitors-for-diabetes-have-finally-been-funded-but-a-chronic-workforce-shortage-will-limit-the-benefits-241113

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Social media footage reveals little-known ‘surfing’ whales in Australian waters

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vanessa Pirotta, Postdoctoral Researcher and Wildlife Scientist, Macquarie University

    Sapphire Coastal Adventures

    As humpback and southern right whales return to Antarctica at the tail end of their annual migration, east coast whale watchers may think the show will soon be over. But some whale species are still here, possibly year-round. And we need to find out more about them.

    My team’s new research concerns one of these little-known species – the Bryde’s whale. You may have seen it feeding, breaching or surfing, without realising what it was.

    My colleagues and I wanted to learn more about where Bryde’s whales can be found in Australian waters. So we tapped into observations shared on social media, including drone footage and photographs from whale-watching tours. We also gathered observations from scientists.

    We discovered a wealth of information. It includes evidence of feeding and “surfing” behaviours possibly never documented before. Findings from this research will directly help inform conservation efforts to protect this species, which we still know so little about in Australian waters.

    A Bryde’s whale rides the surf after feeding in shallow waters.
    Taylor Arnell and Austin Ihle @takethemap

    Observing whales through citizen science

    Scientists can’t always be out in the field, or on the water. That’s why the data gathered by everyday people, known as “citizen scientists”, can be so useful. It captures valuable information about wildlife that can be used later by professional researchers.

    Citizen science projects involving marine life have grown over recent years. They include people documenting humpback whale recovery by counting northward migrating humpback whales off Sydney, and people watching sharks off Bondi Beach via the @DroneSharkApp.

    Hungry hungry whales

    Like humpback whales, these giants are “baleen” whales, meaning they are toothless. But Bryde’s whales have a much pointier mouth and lack that famous hump.

    A preference for warmer waters means Bryde’s whales are also known as tropical whales. They can be found in tropical or subtropical waters.

    Around the world, Bryde’s whales have demonstrated interesting feeding behaviours, from high-speed seafloor chases to “pirouette feeding”.

    Bryde’s whale in shallow waters near baitfish.
    Taylor Arnell and Austin Ihle @takethemap.

    Hanging out in shallow and deep waters

    Our study documented Bryde’s whales feeding in both deep and shallow waters off the east coast of Australia, alone or sometimes with other whales.

    We tapped into more than an hour of drone vision and more than 200 photos of Bryde’s whales shared by citizen scientists on social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram and YouTube.

    In offshore environments, Bryde’s whales were typically seen “side lunging” – where they propel themselves forward and turn onto their side then open their mouth to engulf their food. They also swam from below and scooped up their prey, much like humpback whales.

    Lunging Bryde’s whale feeding on small baitfish in New South Wales waters.
    Brett Dixon

    In shallow waters, Bryde’s whales were observed feeding directly within or behind the surf break.

    We believe this is a new feeding behaviour for this species. We call it “shallow water surf feeding”.

    Whales may be using the surf to assist with their feeding efforts, or, perhaps they are there because that’s where the bait fish are hanging out.

    Regardless, it’s impressive to see such a large whale in the surf and in shallow waters.

    Spotted: mums with their calves

    We also documented mothers with calves. This indicates some parts of the Australian east coast could possibly serve as an important area for nursing mothers with their young. They could also be using these waters for calving.

    We don’t yet fully understand the species’ movements around Australia, and whether they swim in New Zealand waters. For example, the world-famous white humpback whale Migaloo has been known to swim across the Tasman Sea.

    Bryde’s whale mother with calf in NSW waters escorted by dolphins.
    Brett Dixon

    Could these Bryde’s whales we see here in Australian waters be the same ones seen in New Zealand waters? Are they calving in New Zealand or Australia and moving between the two? If so, what does this mean for their protection?

    Whales don’t recognise international boundaries. They go where they want, when they want. This is why collaborative research like this is important for our growing knowledge of this species.

    The more we know, the better we can protect

    This is the first dedicated paper on both the occurrence and feeding behaviour of Bryde’s whale in Australian waters.

    As humans continue to expand our footprint in the ocean through activities such as offshore wind energy, shipping, fishing and tourism, knowledge of this species and others can help inform future decisions in our blue backyard.

    Findings of this study will directly contribute to Australia’s efforts to protect whales. One immediate action will be contributing information to the federal review of Biological Important Areas for protected marine species. The more we know, the better we can target conservation efforts to provide for a species we know relatively little about in Australian waters.

    And even though the humpbacks and southern rights are headed back south to Antarctica for the summer, it’s still worth keeping your eyes on the water. You might be the next person to spot a Bryde’s whale in Australian waters. Let us know if you do!

    An example of shallow water surf feeding by a Bryde’s whale.
    Taylor Arnell and Austin Ihle @takethemap

    Vanessa Pirotta does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Social media footage reveals little-known ‘surfing’ whales in Australian waters – https://theconversation.com/social-media-footage-reveals-little-known-surfing-whales-in-australian-waters-241347

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Mysterious black balls have washed up on Sydney’s Coogee beach. Are they the result of an oil spill, or something else?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sharon Hook, Principal Research Scientist, CSIRO

    Sydney’s popular Coogee beach has been closed until further notice after hundreds of strange black balls washed up on the shoreline.

    The black balls were discovered on Tuesday afternoon.
    Randwick City Council

    The balls were discovered on Tuesday afternoon. The local authority, Randwick City Council, says samples have been collected for testing, and the incident has been reported to the Environment Protection Authority and Beachwatch NSW.

    A council spokesperson said the debris may be “tar balls” formed when oil comes into contact with debris and water – typically the result of oil spills or seepage.

    I am a senior research scientist at CSIRO, specialising in environmental toxicity. While the objects could be tar balls, in my view, it is also possible they are something else. But in any case, the debris poses a potential risk to marine life and the public, and authorities were right to close the beach.

    What are tar balls?

    Tar balls are typically dark, sticky blobs found on beaches after an oil spill. They occur when oil comes into contact with the ocean’s surface and becomes weathered by wind and waves. This breaks the oil patches into smaller pieces.

    Tar balls usually form in a variety of shapes and sizes – ranging from big, flat pancakes to tiny spheres. The image below shows a typically irregular tar ball that washed up on an island in the United States.

    Tarballs, such as this one found on Dauphin Island, Alabama, usually form in a variety of shapes and sizes.
    NOAA

    On this basis, I am not certain the pieces of debris found at Coogee are tar balls. They certainly might be. I haven’t seen them in person, but from the publicly available images, the objects appear to be relatively uniform, perfectly round shapes. That would be very unusual for tar balls – but not impossible.

    The balls could be plastic debris washed off a container ship, such as squash balls or plastic used in manufacturing. But obviously, we have to wait until tests have been conducted on the objects before we can determine their origin and composition.

    And finally, the balls appear to have washed up only at Coogee beach. It would be uncommon for oil spill remnants to drift to a single location unless the spill happened very close to shore.

    What are the potential harms?

    Whatever the objects are, they could pose a hazard to marine life.

    If the objects are sticky or oily, they may coat animals that come into contact with them. An animal that ate the objects may also be harmed. The balls would be difficult to digest and might stay in the animal’s stomach for a long time, preventing it from eating other food.

    If the objects are in fact tar balls, this is dangerous to animals because oil can be carcinogenic.

    What should be done?

    Every precaution should be taken until we know exactly what these mysterious objects are.

    Authorities are doing the right thing in keeping people away from the beach as the cleanup and testing continue. The public should heed official advice not to enter the beach and especially, not to touch the spheres.

    At this stage, it appears no other beach is affected, so there are plenty of other nearby options for beach-lovers.

    In the meantime, we should let the forensic scientists and other experts do their job.

    Sharon Hook does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Mysterious black balls have washed up on Sydney’s Coogee beach. Are they the result of an oil spill, or something else? – https://theconversation.com/mysterious-black-balls-have-washed-up-on-sydneys-coogee-beach-are-they-the-result-of-an-oil-spill-or-something-else-241470

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Claims that Qantas is greenwashing build a case for carbon assurance: here’s what it is

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Md Safiullah (Safi), Senior Lecturer in Finance, RMIT University

    ChristianChan/Shutterstock

    Qantas is being taken to Australia’s consumer regulator over its claim it is committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

    The Environmental Defenders Office and the advocacy group Climate Integrity say the claim is “not backed up by credible targets or substantiating strategies” making it potentially misleading and in breach of the Australian Consumer Law.

    The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has yet to decide whether to investigate the complaint, and Qantas has yet to respond.

    The complaint follows a ruling by a Dutch Court earlier this year that the airline KLM had misled consumers by creating the false impression it was sustainable.

    The win has spurred the European Commission to write to 20 airlines identifying potentially misleading claims and inviting them to bring their practices in line.

    Of most concern to the European regulators are claims the carbon emissions caused by flights can be offset by climate projects and the use of sustainable fuels, to which the consumers can contribute by paying additional fees.

    Carbon assurance assesses claims ahead of time

    These kinds of complaints would be much easier for airlines (and other compnies) to deal with if they had submitted themselves to a process known as carbon assurance ahead of time.

    Usually entered into voluntarily, and conducted by an independent assessor in accordance with an international standard, the process verifies the accuracy, transparency, and credibility of an organisation’s carbon emissions claims.

    My own research with Linh Nguyen, just published in Finance Research Letters, finds firms with high carbon assurance scores are more likely to obtain more trade credit from their suppliers.

    Europe and Australia are moving towards making carbon assurance mandatory for large corporations.

    Few firms submit themselves to it

    A survey by KPMG International finds that while nearly all of the world’s 250 largest firms report on the sustainability of their operations, only two-thirds submit themselves to carbon assurance.

    Another survey of 5,183 companies from 42 countries that publish emissions data finds half don’t engage a carbon assuror.

    This could be because they are afraid of what the assuror will find.

    An international survey of 750 companies that sought some level of external assurance found just 14% received a reasonable assurance.

    Many firms aren’t ready

    Assessors are hard to find.
    NattapongPunna/Shutterstock

    Assurors, and the skills within the organisation to handle the process are hard to find. While international standards are in place, there isn’t yet a professional or regulatory body to certify assurors.

    The Australian government intends to make assurance reports for the
    Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions of large firms mandatory from July 2026.

    Scope 1 and scope 2 emissions are the direct and indirect emissions of the corporation itself.

    The government intends to make Scope 3 emissions (those in other parts of the corporation’s supply and distribution chain) mandatory from July 2030.

    It will be important to get the systems in place.

    While what the firms report will matter a lot, what will matter almost as much is an assurance we can believe what they report.

    Md Safiullah (Safi) does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Claims that Qantas is greenwashing build a case for carbon assurance: here’s what it is – https://theconversation.com/claims-that-qantas-is-greenwashing-build-a-case-for-carbon-assurance-heres-what-it-is-239592

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Charles III will be the first king of Australia to visit our shores. He could also be the last

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jess Carniel, Associate professor in Humanities, University of Southern Queensland

    King Charles III and Queen Camilla’s upcoming visit to Australia is significant for several reasons. It is Charles’ first visit since ascending to the throne – as well as the first time a British male head of state has visited Australia.

    Some observers are also wondering whether it might be one of the last royal tours, as debates about Australia potentially becoming a republic are reignited.

    As the monarchy tries to “modernise” alongside growing support for republicanism, this visit will be one to watch.

    The curse of the Antipodes?

    As Prince of Wales, Charles had a long and successful track record of royal tours to Australia, having visited 16 times. The visits included a term attending Geelong Grammar School in 1966, as well as the 1983 tour with Princess Diana that saw Australians caught up in Di-mania – and Charles reportedly gripped by jealousy.

    But Charles’ royal predecessors weren’t as lucky in their trips down under. His own grandfather, King George VI, planned to visit Australia in the late 1940s with Queen Elizabeth and Princess Margaret, but the tour was postponed due to his poor health. While he had previously visited as the Duke of York, George VI never made it here as king.

    King George VI was born in 1895 and reigned from 1936 until his death in 1952.
    Wikimedia

    The very first royal visit to Australia – Prince Alfred’s 1867 tour – had all appearance of being cursed. One of his crew members drowned during the first stop in South Australia. Several more people died in a major fire accident and a Catholic-Protestant skirmish in Melbourne.

    Most memorably – certainly for Alfred – was an assassination attempt on the prince in Sydney. This, interestingly, is an experience King Charles has also had.



    Read more:
    Royal visits to Australia can be disaster magnets. In the first one, the prince barely made it out alive

    During Charles’ 1994 visit, student protester David Kang fired blanks from a starter pistol in protest of Australia’s treatment of Cambodian refugees. The then Prince of Wales wasn’t harmed and Kang went on to become a barrister.

    For non-British royals, however, Sydney has been a lucky location. King Frederick X’s decidedly modern romance with Tasmania-born Queen Mary famously began when they met at a bar during the Sydney Olympics in 2000.

    Prince or king – does it matter?

    This will be Charles’ seventeenth visit to Australia, but his first as reigning monarch. This means he is visiting not on behalf of the head of state, but as the head of state.

    The royal couple’s planned Australian engagements are as strategic as they are symbolic. They reflect carefully curated and ostensibly “non-political” issues such as environmental sustainability, cancer research and family violence.

    The visit also includes a meeting with Indigenous representatives. Notably, it is the first royal tour to not use the term “walkabout” to describe public meet-and-greets, as this term had been criticised as cultural appropriation.

    It seems Charles’ modernised monarchy is seeking to distance itself from overtly colonial language – as much as a foreign monarchy can, anyway. The king has yet to respond to Indigenous leaders calling for an apology for British colonisers’ genocides of First Nations peoples.



    Read more:
    Should King Charles apologise for the genocide of First Nations people when he visits Australia?

    Although the Australian media has focused on the stops in Canberra and Sydney, the main purpose of the tour is for the king to attend the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Samoa between October 21 and 26.

    It is the first time the meeting will be hosted by a Pacific Island state. The talks are an important opportunity for the king to highlight issues such as climate change, to which small island states in the Pacific are particularly vulnerable.

    Are people happy about the visit?

    All six state premiers have declined their invitations to meet the king at his welcome reception in Canberra, citing other commitments. Their excuses might be genuine in some cases. For example, Queensland Premier Steven Miles is in the last few weeks of an election campaign.

    However, critics from the monarchist camp have viewed the move as a political response to debates over whether Australia should remain a constitutional monarchy with the king as its head of state.

    A YouGov Australia poll published on the first anniversary of Charles’s ascension showed Australians are divided on republicanism. While 32% want to become a republic “as soon as possible”, 35% preferred to remain a constitutional monarchy and 12% wanted to become a republic after the king’s death. The remaining respondents didn’t know.

    Notably, the poll found republican sentiment had increased since Queen Elizabeth II’s death in September 2022.

    The Albanese government established an assistant minister for the republic upon entering office in 2022 (although the portfolio was abolished with this year’s reshuffle). Upon taking the role, assistant minister Matt Thistlethwaite suggested the “twilight of [Queen Elizabeth’s] reign” presented “a good opportunity for a serious discussion about what comes next for Australia”.

    Charles doesn’t seem to be taking all this too personally. In a letter responding to the Australian Republican Movement in March this year, his private secretary said the king viewed this as “a matter for the Australian public to decide”.

    The royal tour and the meeting in Samoa will be important opportunities for the monarchy to connect with Australia and other Commonwealth nations.

    By presenting itself as a modern institution engaged with contemporary issues such as climate change, the monarchy will also have to engage with the possibility of new political identities for its former colonies.

    Jess Carniel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Charles III will be the first king of Australia to visit our shores. He could also be the last – https://theconversation.com/charles-iii-will-be-the-first-king-of-australia-to-visit-our-shores-he-could-also-be-the-last-241345

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Politics with Michelle Grattan: ‘It’s going to be a bad result for Labor’ – Antony Green and Michael McKenna on the Qld election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Queenslanders vote on October 26 when, according to the polls, the almost decade-long Labor government is expected to be defeated.

    Last year, in a bid to improve its chances, Labor dumped long-time premier Annastacia Palaszczuk in favour of Steven Miles.

    Miles has handed out or promised extensive and expensive cost-of-living support, including $1000 rebates on electricity bills, 50-cent fares, and now promising free school lunches.

    But even all this seems to have failed to drastically change the mood in the electorate.

    To discuss what’s happening on the ground, the potential outcome and what that could mean for the federal Labor government, we’re joined by the ABC’s election specialist, Antony Green and The Australian’s Queensland editor, Michael McKenna.

    Green says:

    The swing has shifted from being catastrophic to just being very bad.[…] the odds are the government’s going to lose.

    All the government’s marginal seats are in the regions, in the regional cities in the north of the state. If it’s a 5 or 6% swing uniform, then all those regional city seats will be knocked out. And once they’ve lost a couple of seats in Brisbane’s belt as well, they’re out of government. So they’re in a very difficult position.

    On what a poor result for the Labor party could mean federally, Green says:

    Labor won the last federal election without doing well in Queensland – [there] was always a view that they couldn’t win an election without doing well in Queensland. They did well in WA instead. Can Labor do worse in Queensland at the next federal election? Well that’s a tough ask, it’s hard to see how. You would have to be back to the level of the defeat of the Whitlam government or the Keating government to do worse in Queensland, and I’m not sure that it’s that level of disaster for the Labor Party. I think there will be a lot of comment on that. But I mean this is a Queensland election and it’s fought on and very much based around sort of Queensland issues.

    Michael McKenna says of the general mood:

    I think for the first time in a few years, I’m seeing a real mood for change in government. Labor is seeking a fourth term on the trot. You can see it in the published polling, which for about the last two years has shown that Labor’s support is sliding and the Liberal National Party has the momentum. I think there’s a real ‘it’s time’ factor.

    What we’ve seen is that Labor’s brand is still seemingly on the nose, particularly in the regions. And Steven Miles, […] he’s given a red hot go, but so far, I’m not seeing much evidence that he’s going to pull out a miracle win.

    McKenna highlights Opposition Leader David Crisafulli’s strategy:

    There’s no doubt that he has adopted a small target strategy to, in one way, focus people’s attention on the failings of a government which has a record of ten years, and there’s always going to be failings and things that are going to make people angry. But I would say that this is arguably the smallest of small target strategies that we’ve ever seen.

    David Crisafulli really only wants to talk […] about the issues that he wants to talk about, and those are crime, particularly youth crime, cost of living, housing and health. But he doesn’t like to be pushed onto any other issues, and he’s done a good job in one sense in that he’s probably the most disciplined conservative party leader I’ve seen in decades in Queensland.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Politics with Michelle Grattan: ‘It’s going to be a bad result for Labor’ – Antony Green and Michael McKenna on the Qld election – https://theconversation.com/politics-with-michelle-grattan-its-going-to-be-a-bad-result-for-labor-antony-green-and-michael-mckenna-on-the-qld-election-241478

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: Albanese would be better off if the story wasn’t ‘all about him’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Unless the government pulls up its political socks, Anthony Albanese could find himself spending a good deal of time in his  spectacular new home, with its uninterrupted ocean views, sooner than he wishes.

    This week’s Newspoll has the Coalition moving in front on a two-party basis for the first time, with Labor’s primary vote at 31%.

    Albanese would hope for another full term as prime minister. But if Labor fell into minority government at next year’s election, there would likely be pressure before too long to replace him. He would not be seen as a good bet for the 2028 election.

    If Peter Dutton pulled off a miracle win in a few months, Albanese could be regularly whale watching this time next year.

    Since the PM’s purchase of the $4.3 million house at the wonderfully-named Copacabana, was revealed on Tuesday,  two narratives have contended.

    Critics denounce Albanese as “tone deaf” in his timing during a housing affordability crisis.

    It was more than awkward that just hours after the news broke, Albanese was appearing with minister Clare O’Neil in Queensland to make an announcement about  housing.


    from Realestate.com, CC BY

    The Copacabana house is a story made for that renter-in-perpetuity, Greens spokesman Max Chandler-Mather.

    Dutton, who has bought and sold a few properties in his time, is careful with his words, knowing others will stir the outrage.

    The alternative narrative is that Albanese, marrying for a second time next year, is entitled to a private life. This involves reordering his property arrangements ahead of a wedding.

    Moreover, some observe, the criticism of him is the “politics of envy” or the “tall poppy syndrome”.

    But there’s another narrative. Suddenly, Albanese’s story has become “all about him” again, as it regularly does when he reverts to talking about his humble origins.

    Stressed voters could be forgiven for being impatient, or cynical about Albanese’s protestations this week that although he now has a good income, “I also know what it’s like to struggle”.

    My mum lived in the one public housing that she was born in for all of her 65 years. And I know what it’s like, which is why I want to help all Australians into a home, whether it be public homes or private rentals or home ownership.

    Unfairly or not, the house story will be read by some as a prime minister spending time on his own affairs.

    Buying a house is a major and reasonably time-consuming process, unless it was outsourced it to partner, Jodie Haydon. The Central Coast was chosen because her family lives there.

    The narrative can also be cast to look like Albanese is preparing for his post-political life while he is still the most important individual in politics.

    Whether this is accurate becomes beside the point, in this era when perceptions can be paramount.


    from Realestate.com, CC BY

    Unsurprisingly, he was asked whether he planned to retire at the house. “I’m planning to be in my current job for a very long period of time,” he said.

    In mid-1991 Bob Hawke purchased a property overlooking Sydney Harbour with a jetty and “stunning views”, and a price tag of $1.23 million.

    Hawke’s leadership was already on the decline – by year’s end he was replaced by Paul Keating.

    Apart from the bad publicity for Albanese, the house affair has taken a good deal of attention from what the government wanted to talk about, notably, what it’s doing to protect consumers and the like.

    It has meant his ministerial colleagues are forced to defend him when they are confronted with awkward questions.

    Energy Minister Chris Bowen tried to make the best fist of it that he could, when quizzed during an interview.

    “Every Australian is entitled to buy and sell property. Now Anthony cops it when he sells the property. He cops it when he provides a rent holiday to his tenants. He cops it when he buys a property,” he said.

    “I think most average Australians say, fair enough. You know, this is what aspiration is about, most average Australians say, well, you know, we all buy and sell properties.”

    When you are in the public eye it is not, however, such an ordinary story.

    By the way, when Albanese goes to the G20 in Rio de Janeiro next month, he can get to see the real Copacabana.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from The Hill: Albanese would be better off if the story wasn’t ‘all about him’ – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-albanese-would-be-better-off-if-the-story-wasnt-all-about-him-241479

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Austerity and recession: 3 simple graphs that explain New Zealand’s economic crisis

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoff Bertram, Visiting Scholar, School of History, Philosophy, Political Science and International Relations, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    Getty Images

    Economists working on macroeconomic policy – things like taxes and spending, interest rates and border controls on flows of trade and money – often refer to a set of key relationships governments can influence. In the textbooks, each of those relationships is drawn as a curve in a graph.

    First is the IS (“investment–saving”) curve. This says that if everything else stays the same, the Reserve Bank can increase economic output and employment by lowering the interest rate. Or it can cause a recession by raising the interest rate. (For simplicity’s sake, the curves here are depicted as straight lines.)

    Second comes the Phillips Curve, which is usually drawn sloping upwards to suggest that if everything else stays the same, inflation will rise during economic booms and fall in recessions. In other words, the Reserve Bank or the government can apparently bring inflation down by causing a recession.

    Third comes the trade balance – the current account of the balance of payments (investment income and traded goods and services between New Zealand and the rest of the world).

    If everything else stays the same here, as the exchange rate of the dollar falls, the current account strengthens by moving towards or expanding a surplus. If the exchange rate rises, the current account weakens: exports fall and imports increase.

    However, it’s a mistake to suppose each of these relationships will stay where it is while the government and Reserve Bank each tinker with their own policy settings. So, what could go wrong?

    The effect of austerity

    Start with the IS curve – the way output and employment are affected by interest rates, assuming the government makes no big budgetary changes. But what if the government embarks on an austerity program, slashing its spending and cancelling projects, which shrinks the economy?

    At any given interest rate, output and employment will be lower, shifting the whole curve “leftwards” towards lower economic activity (see above).

    Even if the Reserve Bank lowers the interest rate, that won’t expand the economy because the government’s fiscal policy is killing off its expansionary effect. The recession created by the austerity program rolls on.

    Along the way, it increases costs to government from unemployment, paying other benefits, and lower tax revenue. If the government responds with further austerity, we enter a downward self-reinforcing spiral.

    Wages and inflation

    Second, take the Phillips Curve and ask what happens if inflation isn’t, in fact, sensitive to how the economy is doing.

    In this case, driving the economy into recession has no effect on the inflation rate. When the Reserve Bank changes the interest rate, inflation just stays where it is because the Phillips Curve is flat, not upward-sloping. Reducing inflation requires completely different policy interventions.

    Back when the Phillips Curve was invented, it was reasonable to think inflation fell during recessions because workers could get higher wage increases in booms than in slumps.

    Bringing on a recession would reduce the bargaining power of workers, result in slower wage growth, and thereby tame inflation (given that wages are an important part of the costs of production).

    But workers today have lost the bargaining power they used to have when unions were strong and welfare-state thinking prevailed.

    In a paper fellow economist Bill Rosenberg and I published this year, we show the bargaining power of labour was killed off in 1991 by the Employment Contracts Act and has not recovered since. Wages no longer drive inflation in contemporary New Zealand.

    Interest rates and inflation

    Could the Phillips Curve work because producers of goods and services push up prices and profits faster in booms and cut their margins in recessions?

    It’s possible: there’s plenty of evidence of big companies using their market power to price-gouge consumers. But it’s not clear this exercise of market power is greater in booms and lesser in slumps.

    In fact, the opposite could be true. Small businesses are most likely to be driven out of the market in recessions, leaving big companies with increased market share and less competitive pressure on their margins.

    Forces both locally and in international markets have clearly been pushing the Phillips Curve down, producing lower inflation. Local forces include the current government’s abrupt cancellation of major construction activities, dismissal of public servants, the constant negative messaging on the state of the economy, and rising outward migration as a consequence of all these.

    International markets, including falling prices for imports such as oil, have also clearly been pushing the Phillips Curve down. While the Reserve Bank will claim credit, it’s not at all clear the bank’s interest rate policy has made that much difference.

    Finally, what about the international balance of payments? One thing the Reserve Bank can do by changing the interest rate is change the exchange rate between the New Zealand dollar and other currencies.

    If New Zealand’s interest rates increase relative to elsewhere in the world, short-term money flows in to take advantage of the higher rates. This raises the exchange rate, and in turn weakens the external balance by cutting the return on exports and increasing the volume of cheaper imports.

    Producers of goods and services that face international competition are squeezed. Meanwhile, what used to be called the “sheltered” or “non-tradeable” industries – including the big banks, insurance companies, electricity suppliers, supermarkets, consultancies – are unscathed.

    Deeper recession

    The Reserve Bank may not have much effect on inflation, but it can certainly affect the structure of the economy. Using the interest rate as the weapon against inflation squeezes manufacturers, tourism and farmers, but leaves non-tradables largely untouched.

    Right now in New Zealand, the IS curve is remorselessly shifting left as the economy plunges into a deeper recession exacerbated by government austerity – an ideologically driven quest for instant fiscal surpluses, low public debt and a shrinking public sector relative to GDP.

    Falling interest rates will struggle to make expansionary headway against that austerity.

    Meanwhile, corporate profiteering and rising government charges continue to put upward pressure on the Phillips Curve, and the balance of payments is weakening. This means the country as a whole is piling up increasing debts to the rest of the world (largely through the Australian-owned banks).

    The question is, does the current government understand where its policies are taking us?

    Geoff Bertram does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Austerity and recession: 3 simple graphs that explain New Zealand’s economic crisis – https://theconversation.com/austerity-and-recession-3-simple-graphs-that-explain-new-zealands-economic-crisis-241259

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: China’s government is about to spend big on stimulus – can it turn around the country’s sluggish economy?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wenting He, PhD candidate of International Relations, Australian National University

    Sanga Park/Shutterstock

    China’s relentless economic growth used to be the marvel of the world. Oh, what a memory.

    The past couple of years have seen China contend with an economic slowdown amid colliding crises, many of which make it internationally unique. Consumer prices have been approaching deflationary territory, there’s an oversupply of housing, and youth unemployment has soared.

    Mounting pressure has forced the Chinese government to step in. Over the past month, Beijing has put forward a set of significant economic stimulus measures aimed at reviving China’s faltering economy.

    According to a research note by Deutsche Bank, this stimulus could potentially become “the largest in history” in nominal terms. But there’s still a lot we don’t know. So what kinds of measures that are in this package so far, and has China been here before?

    What’s in the package?

    On September 24, Pan Gongsheng, governor of China’s central bank, unveiled the country’s boldest intervention to boost its economy since the pandemic.

    The initiatives included reducing mortgage rates for existing homes and reducing the amount of cash commercial banks are required to hold in reserves. The latter is expected to inject about 1 trillion yuan (A$210 billion) into the financial market by letting the banks lend out more.

    China has been grappling with an oversupply of housing and a property sector crisis.
    Charles Bowman/Shutterstock

    On top of this, 800 billion yuan (A$168 billion) was announced to strengthen China’s capital market.

    This comprised a new 500 billion yuan (A$105 billion) monetary policy facility to help institutions more easily access funds to buy stocks, and a 300 billion yuan (A$63 billion) re-lending facility to help speed up sales of unsold housing.

    Further signs of economic revitalisation became evident at a Politburo meeting of China’s top government officials, two days after this announcement.

    Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed the urgency of economic revival. Xi even encouraged officials to “go bold in helping the economy” without having to fear the consequences.

    That same day, seven government departments released a joint policy package to stabilise China’s 500 billion yuan (A$105 billion) dairy industry, which has been severely impacted by declining milk and beef prices since 2023.

    A market rollercoaster

    Initially, the market’s response was overwhelmingly positive. Perhaps too positive. In the last week of September, stock markets in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong saw their biggest weekly rise in 16 years.

    On October 8, following China’s National Day holiday, turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges hit an unprecedented 3.43 trillion yuan (A$718 billion). However, expectations for further stimulus measures were met with disappointment.

    China’s National Development and Reform Commission brought forward 100 billion yuan (A$21 billion) in spending from the 2025 budget. That wasn’t enough to sustain market optimism. On October 9, Chinese stocks saw their most severe drop in 27 years.

    This downturn only worsened a few days later, when China’s Ministry of Finance hinted there was “ample room” to raise debts but did not specify any new stimulus measures.

    Still thin on the details

    The market remains deeply uncertain about the future direction of China’s economic policies and what they might mean for the world. Hopes that more details might be released over the weekend were largely dashed.

    Back in July, Chinese authorities asserted in their Third Plenary Session communique that China “must remain firmly committed” to achieving this year’s economic growth target of 5%. Compared to the country’s reform-era economic performance, that’s a modest goal.

    But facing a persistently sluggish economic outlook, Xi later seemed to subtly shift the tone, changing the language from “remain firmly committed” to “strive to fulfill” in September.

    Over the past decades, China has frequently employed massive-scale stimulus measures to revive its economy during downturns. These policies have been able to significantly rejuvenate the economy, though occasionally with some worrying side effects.

    In response to the 2008 global financial crisis, China’s State Council released a 4 trillion yuan (A$837 billion) stimulus package. This successfully helped China stand firm through the crisis and was credited as a key stabiliser of the global economy.

    But it also accumulated trillions of yuan in debt through local government financing and accelerated the rise of “shadow banking” – unregulated financial activities.

    China also spent big on stimulating its economy in 2015, following stock market turbulence, and then again in the wake of the pandemic.

    What should we expect?

    What should we expect this time? How balanced or sustainable will any ensuing growth be?

    We are still waiting on many of the details about the size and scope of the package, but any big increase in Chinese economic demand will likely have “spillover” effects.

    As we’ve discussed, many of the measures announced to date will have their most immediate effect on borrowing, lending and liquidity in China’s stock markets.

    That suggests we should watch for what’s called the “wealth effect” in economics. This is the theory that rising asset prices – such as for housing or shares – make people feel wealthier and therefore spend more.

    If China’s big stimulus spend causes sustained increases in asset values, it could give rise to economic optimism. Chinese consumers – and investors – may become less anxious about the future.

    From Australia’s point of view, that could see increases in demand in areas where our economies are interlinked – iron ore, tourism, education and manufactured food exports.

    More broadly, Chinese demand could contribute to growth in other global economies, with a self-reinforcing effect on the world as a whole.

    Beware financialisation

    On the other hand, China’s shift to depending more on volatile asset price rises in its capital markets to sustain growth could have destabilising effects. Where asset price increases benefit those at the “top end of town,” they can breed inequities and imbalances of their own.

    China’s “Black Monday” stock market crash in 2015 raised alarm in Beijing. Partly reflecting a wariness of excess financialisation, Xi cautioned at the time that “housing is for living in, not for speculation”.

    So far, China is still navigating its path towards a more sustainable development model, striving to strike a balance between sustaining economic growth and stabilising its domestic markets and political landscape. As for the outcome, it remains a profound uncertainty for us all – perhaps China itself included.

    Wesley Widmaier receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Wenting He does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. China’s government is about to spend big on stimulus – can it turn around the country’s sluggish economy? – https://theconversation.com/chinas-government-is-about-to-spend-big-on-stimulus-can-it-turn-around-the-countrys-sluggish-economy-241260

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: AI is creeping into the visual effects industry – and it could take the human touch out of film and TV

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By AD Narayan, Visual Effects Artist and Lecturer in Digital Communication, Auckland University of Technology

    IMDB

    From the mind-bending reality warps of Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness (2022) to the breathtaking alien vistas of Avatar: The Way of Water (2022), visual effects have transported us to worlds beyond imagination. Yet the future of visual effects (VFX) could hang in the balance as artificial intelligence is subsumed into screen production processes.

    Lionsgate’s recent partnership with AI startup Runway has sparked controversy in the visual effects industry.

    By allowing Runway to train AI on Lionsgate’s vast film and TV catalogue, the collaboration promises increased efficiency and financial savings – but at what cost?

    Growing apprehension among workers

    According to a research report published in January, 75% of 300 entertainment industry leaders surveyed said generative AI tools, software and models had contributed to the elimination, reduction or consolidation of jobs within their business divisions.

    The report highlighted the visual effects sector as being particularly vulnerable, as AI techniques are often applied in post-production processes. This vulnerability was typified in our own research published today.

    Our work reveals visual effects artists have serious concerns about generative AI’s integration into screen production. These include worries over job insecurity, creative devaluation, and the potential for AI to produce derivative content that fails to meet audience expectations.

    Challenges of AI in the VFX industry

    Our findings reflect growing concerns that AI’s use in filmmaking could magnify existing industry problems. It could, for instance, exacerbate unfair working conditions. Or it could undermine creativity if artists are expected to “clean up” AI-generated work rather than create their own.

    Visual effects artists, who have typically been early adopters of new technologies, acknowledge AI could bring both opportunities and challenges. While it could help streamline certain tasks, it could equally impact on the overall quality of their work.

    The artists we spoke to were worried a reliance on AI might stifle creativity and skill development, by making the work “more mechanical and less creative”. In a recent example, the AI-generated title sequence for Marvel’s Secret Invasion series was widely criticised for lacking artistic merit.

    There were also questions about how artists would be compensated if their work is used to train AI models.

    Some senior supervisors were particularly concerned about the ethical and legal considerations of using AI on commercial projects. They were uncertain around intellectual property rights for AI-generated content, as well as the potential for copyright infringement.

    On the creative and technical front, artists recognised AI’s value in generating ideas and automating repetitive tasks. However, nearly all of them said AI tools weren’t yet production-ready, and highlighted difficulties with integrating said tools into existing pipelines.

    The next steps

    The VFX industry was already struggling with profits and sustainability before the AI boom. Visual effects companies often face bankruptcy – even Oscar-winning ones. In many cases, artists will get laid off once a project is complete.

    Life of Pi (2012) won an Oscar for its visual effects work – but the company responsible for it went bankrupt.
    IMDB

    The partnership between Lionsgate and Runway represents the industry’s collective failure to address concerns over AI. But there’s still time to fix things.

    The first step is developing clear industry guidelines for AI’s use in visual effects. Above all else, AI should help augment human creativity, rather than replace it. And artists should be fairly compensated if their work is used to train AI models.

    Investment in training programs could also help artists adapt to new AI tools without compromising their creativity. As one interviewee told us, human expertise and creativity remain important in visual effects.

    “Understanding the why behind certain choices, the creative decision making, that’s something I haven’t really seen AI effectively do,” they said.

    As the industry stands at a technological crossroads, it must balance the pursuit of efficiency with genuine creativity. Otherwise, we risk losing the human touch that brings our favourite films to life.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI is creeping into the visual effects industry – and it could take the human touch out of film and TV – https://theconversation.com/ai-is-creeping-into-the-visual-effects-industry-and-it-could-take-the-human-touch-out-of-film-and-tv-240112

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Three letters, one number, a knife and a stone bridge: how a graffitied equation changed mathematical history

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Robyn Arianrhod, Affiliate, School of Mathematics, Monash University

    William Murphy / Flickr, CC BY

    On October 16 1843, the Irish mathematician William Rowan Hamilton had an epiphany during a walk alongside Dublin’s Royal Canal. He was so excited he took out his penknife and carved his discovery right then and there on Broome Bridge.

    It is the most famous graffiti in mathematical history, but it looks rather unassuming:

    i 

    ²

     = j 

    ²

     = k 

    ²

     = ijk = 

    –1

    Yet Hamilton’s revelation changed the way mathematicians represent information. And this, in turn, made myriad technical applications simpler – from calculating forces when designing a bridge, an MRI machine or a wind turbine, to programming search engines and orienting a rover on Mars. So, what does this famous graffiti mean?

    Rotating objects

    The mathematical problem Hamilton was trying to solve was how to represent the relationship between different directions in three-dimensional space. Direction is important in describing forces and velocities, but Hamilton was also interested in 3D rotations.

    Mathematicians already knew how to represent the position of an object with coordinates such as x, y and z, but figuring out what happened to these coordinates when you rotated the object required complicated spherical geometry. Hamilton wanted a simpler method.

    He was inspired by a remarkable way of representing two-dimensional rotations.
    The trick was to use what are called “complex numbers”, which have a “real” part and an “imaginary” part. The imaginary part is a multiple of the number i, “the square root of minus one”, which is defined by the equation i ² = –1.

    By the early 1800s several mathematicians, including Jean Argand and John Warren, had discovered that a complex number can be represented by a point on a plane. Warren had also shown it was mathematically quite simple to rotate a line through 90° in this new complex plane, like turning a clock hand back from 12.15pm to 12 noon. For this is what happens when you multiply a number by i.

    When a complex number is represented as a point on a plane, multiplying the number by i amounts to rotating the corresponding line by 90° anticlockwise.
    The Conversation, CC BY

    Hamilton was mightily impressed by this connection between complex numbers and geometry, and set about trying to do it in three dimensions. He imagined a 3D complex plane, with a second imaginary axis in the direction of a second imaginary number j, perpendicular to the other two axes.

    It took him many arduous months to realise that if he wanted to extend the 2D rotational wizardry of multiplication by i he needed four-dimensional complex numbers, with a third imaginary number, k.

    In this 4D mathematical space, the k-axis would be perpendicular to the other three. Not only would k be defined by k ² = –1, its definition also needed k = ij = –ji. (Combining these two equations for k gives ijk = –1.)

    Putting all this together gives i ² = j ² = k ² = ijk = –1, the revelation that hit Hamilton like a bolt of lightning at Broome Bridge.

    Quaternions and vectors

    Hamilton called his 4D numbers “quaternions”, and he used them to calculate geometrical rotations in 3D space. This is the kind of rotation used today to move a robot, say, or orient a satellite.

    But most of the practical magic comes into it when you consider just the imaginary part of a quaternion. For this is what Hamilton named a “vector”.

    A vector encodes two kinds of information at once, most famously the magnitude and direction of a spatial quantity such as force, velocity or relative position. For instance, to represent an object’s position (x, y, z) relative to the “origin” (the zero point of the position axes), Hamilton visualised an arrow pointing from the origin to the object’s location. The arrow represents the “position vector” x i + y j + z k.

    This vector’s “components” are the numbers x, y and z – the distance the arrow extends along each of the three axes. (Other vectors would have different components, depending on their magnitudes and units.)

    A vector (r) is like an arrow from the point O to the point with coordinates (x, y, z).
    The Conversation, CC BY

    Half a century later, the eccentric English telegrapher Oliver Heaviside helped inaugurate modern vector analysis by replacing Hamilton’s imaginary framework i, j, k with real unit vectors, i, j, k. But either way, the vector’s components stay the same – and therefore the arrow, and the basic rules for multiplying vectors, remain the same, too.

    Hamilton defined two ways to multiply vectors together. One produces a number (this is today called the scalar or dot product), and the other produces a vector (known as the vector or cross product). These multiplications crop up today in a multitude of applications, such as the formula for the electromagnetic force that underpins all our electronic devices.

    A single mathematical object

    Unbeknown to Hamilton, the French mathematician Olinde Rodrigues had come up with a version of these products just three years earlier, in his own work on rotations. But to call Rodrigues’ multiplications the products of vectors is hindsight. It is Hamilton who linked the separate components into a single quantity, the vector.

    Everyone else, from Isaac Newton to Rodrigues, had no concept of a single mathematical object unifying the components of a position or a force. (Actually, there was one person who had a similar idea: a self-taught German mathematician named Hermann Grassmann, who independently invented a less transparent vectorial system at the same time as Hamilton.)

    Hamilton also developed a compact notation to make his equations concise and elegant. He used a Greek letter to denote a quaternion or vector, but today, following Heaviside, it is common to use a boldface Latin letter.

    This compact notation changed the way mathematicians represent physical quantities in 3D space.

    Take, for example, one of Maxwell’s equations relating the electric and magnetic fields:

    ∇

     

    ×

     

    E

     

    = –∂
    B
    /∂

    t

    With just a handful of symbols (we won’t get into the physical meanings of ∂/∂t and ∇ ×), this shows how an electric field vector (E) spreads through space in response to changes in a magnetic field vector (B).

    Without vector notation, this would be written as three separate equations (one for each component of B and E) – each one a tangle of coordinates, multiplications and subtractions.

    The expanded form of the equation. As you can see, vector notation makes life much simpler.
    The Conversation, CC BY

    The power of perseverance

    I chose one of Maxwell’s equations as an example because the quirky Scot James Clerk Maxwell was the first major physicist to recognise the power of compact vector symbolism. Unfortunately, Hamilton didn’t live to see Maxwell’s endorsement. But he never gave up his belief in his new way of representing physical quantities.

    Hamilton’s perseverance in the face of mainstream rejection really moved me, when I was researching my book on vectors. He hoped that one day – “never mind when” – he might be thanked for his discovery, but this was not vanity. It was excitement at the possible applications he envisaged.

    A plaque on Dublin’s Broome Bridge commemorate’s Hamilton’s flash of insight.
    Cone83 / Wikimedia, CC BY-SA

    He would be over the moon that vectors are so widely used today, and that they can represent digital as well as physical information. But he’d be especially pleased that in programming rotations, quaternions are still often the best choice – as NASA and computer graphics programmers know.

    In recognition of Hamilton’s achievements, maths buffs retrace his famous walk every October 16 to celebrate Hamilton Day. But we all use the technological fruits of that unassuming graffiti every single day.

    Robyn Arianrhod does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Three letters, one number, a knife and a stone bridge: how a graffitied equation changed mathematical history – https://theconversation.com/three-letters-one-number-a-knife-and-a-stone-bridge-how-a-graffitied-equation-changed-mathematical-history-241034

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Has Kamala Harris reached the ceiling of her ability to make gains against Trump?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jared Mondschein, Director of Research, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    With less than three weeks to go before Election Day, the polling at this point is clear: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are effectively tied.

    Harris has led the Democratic ticket for less than three months, but in that short time she has galvanised Democratic voters and significantly increased the popularity of the Democratic ticket. Yet, current levels of US political polarisation and, perhaps more notably, calcification, make one wonder just how much more support she could win.

    In other words, few Americans are undecided in their views of Donald Trump – he galvanises both his base and his opponents alike – so there are simply not many American voters remaining for Harris to try to win over.

    Initial momentum has plateaued

    When 81-year-old Joe Biden led the Democratic ticket in early 2024, only 55% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters were enthusiastic about the election.

    While the 2020 presidential election between Biden and Trump broke records for US voter turnout, the 2024 redux was looking like it would break the opposite sort of records – for voter disinterest.

    That is, at least, until Harris assumed the top of the Democratic ticket on 21 July 2024. Within a month of Biden stepping down as the party’s nominee, Democratic enthusiasm for their significantly younger candidate jumped 23 points to 78%. This eclipsed not only levels of enthusiasm that Democrats had for Barack Obama in 2008, but also the levels of enthusiasm that Republicans currently have for Donald Trump.

    Harris’ momentum saw the race quickly move on from deep analysis of the “double haters” – the record 25% US voters who disliked both Trump and Biden and were simply deciding which they hated less. With a much closer contest now likely, attention shifted to key swing states such as Pennsylvania, where Harris closed Trump’s five-point lead over Biden to now be around even.

    Small changes can make a big difference

    Harris’ ability to make the Democratic ticket competitive should not be undervalued. After all, as recently as June 2024, she was one of the few Democratic politicians who actually had a lower national approval rating than Joe Biden.

    With that said, the momentum for Harris should not be seen as a sea change across the country. As much as she energised a previously lacklustre Democratic ticket, approval of Harris among self-described Independent voters only increased from 36% to 43% in the same timeframe. Republican approval of Harris decreased slightly from 6% to 4% over the same period.

    Ultimately, even the slightest of changes can completely shift the nature of the race, particularly given how slim the margins have been in the last two presidential elections. In the 2016 presidential election, for example, Trump’s margin of victory was some 75,000 votes across three swing states. In 2020, Biden’s margin of victory was about 45,000 votes across three swing states.

    Harris or Trump’s 2024 margin of victory very well may be less than 0.03% of the US electorate, making this potentially the closest US election in decades.

    Has support for Harris peaked?

    For the first half of 2024, Trump polled considerably ahead of Biden in the key swing states that will most likely decide the US election. Then, within weeks of Harris becoming the presidential nominee in July, the difference in the swing states between Trump and his opponent shrank to around 1-2 percentage points.

    Now, nearly three months later, the polling is essentially unchanged – remaining well within the standard margin of error of around ±3%.

    As much as Harris has eclipsed Biden in the race against Trump, there is no denying the statistical reality that Harris is no longer gaining ground on Trump in the way that she was in the early weeks of her candidacy.

    Some have argued that Harris’ liabilities – and perhaps the reason she has stalled in the polls – are that Americans remain fairly negative on the economy, she is in the incumbent administration instead of on an outsider ticket, and that many view her as simply too progressive.

    Yet judging by the fact that Harris appears to be polling better than “a generic Democrat” – who generally are more popular than any other Democrats because they are not real people with real positions – it’s perhaps more likely that in these polarised and calcified times, Harris very well may have simply peaked as high as any other Democratic candidate possibly could.

    With American voter intentions barely shifting after an insurrection, pandemic and assassination attempts, it’s hard to imagine Harris can do much better than she already is doing.

    Harris’ best strategy for success on November 5 may therefore need to be less focused on winning over more of the very few undecided voters remaining, and instead more focused on simply getting her energised supporters to turn up on Election Day.

    Jared Mondschein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Has Kamala Harris reached the ceiling of her ability to make gains against Trump? – https://theconversation.com/has-kamala-harris-reached-the-ceiling-of-her-ability-to-make-gains-against-trump-240902

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: An immediate ban has been issued for the herbicide dacthal. What are the health risks?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Musgrave, Senior lecturer in Pharmacology, University of Adelaide

    Last week the Australian government cancelled the registration of all products containing chlorthal dimethyl, a weedkiller commonly known as dacthal.

    No phase out period applies. The cancellation is immediate, due to the risks it poses to human health – primarily unborn babies.

    This means using dacthal as a chemical agricultural product “is now illegal”, according the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority.

    So what has changed? What are the health risks of being exposed to dacthal – and how long have we known about them?

    What is dacthal?

    Dacthal and chlorthal dimethyl are alternative names for dimethyl tetrachloroterephthalate, or DCPA. This is a herbicide registered to control weeds in both agricultural and non-agricultural settings.

    Dacthal works by inhibiting auxin, a growth hormone in plants which promotes the development of buds, roots and lengthening cells.

    It is used to selectively kill annual grasses and many other common weeds, without killing turf grasses, flowers, fruits and vegetables. Dacthal is applied before weeds emerge, often when still in their seed stage.

    In Australia it is used in twelve herbicide products. All have been cancelled as of October 10 2024.

    Farmers and retailers are allowed to hold products until they’re recalled, but must not use them. The government says it will provide information about product recall shortly.

    What are the health risks?

    As dacthal targets a hormone found only in plants, for adult humans and mammals the chemical has limited acute and subchronic toxicity. This means brief exposure to high levels of dacthal, or longer-term exposure to modestly high levels, have no effect.

    However there is a health risk for unborn babies whose mothers have been directly exposed. This could be through mixing the chemical, loading and applying it, or from residue on treated crops – for up to five days after first applied.

    The chemical has been linked to low birth weight, and life-long impacts, which can include impaired brain development and motor skills.

    The government has advised pregnant agricultural workers who are concerned to speak to their clinician.

    What changed?

    Safety data for chemicals such as pesticides are periodically reevaluated. This is to see if any new risks have become apparent with advances in technology and our understanding of biology.

    In 2013, the United States Environmental Protection Agency called for fresh safety data to look at effects of dacthal on thyroid hormones.

    Fast forward to 2022. In that time, the company producing dacthal had failed to produce the required study. So the US Environmental Protection Agency issued a notice it would suspend technical-grade products containing dacthal.

    In response, the company submitted a thyroid study performed in rats. This study showed dacthal could affect thyroid function at doses lower than previously known.

    The US government determined this did not change recommendations for adults. However dacthal may affect thyroid function of a fetus at lower doses than those those that harm adults.

    What did the study in rats find?

    Dacthal was found to inhibit two thyroid hormones in rat pups whose mother had been exposed while pregnant.

    There was a 35-53% decrease in the hormone triiodothyronine, known as T3. And for thyroxine (T4), rat pups experienced a 29-66% decrease after their mother’s exposure.

    Decreases in these two hormones are associated with risks to unborn children including low birth weight and impaired brain development, IQ and motor skills.

    Of particular concern was the effects occurred at much lower levels than previously thought. The decreases in T3 and T4 occurred in rat pups exposed to levels of dacthal ten times lower than the safe threshold for their mothers. This means pregnant rats exposed to dacthal at those levels had no adverse effects, but their unborn babies did.

    Exactly how the chemical caused decreases in T3 and T4 in rat pups is not clear.

    However the Australian Pesticides and Veterinary Medicines Authority considers this study relevant to humans. The changes in regulation are based on the potential harms if unborn babies are exposed via their mothers.

    The health risk is to the development of an unborn baby exposed to dachtal via their mother.
    Fox_Ana/Shutterstock

    What exposure is safe?

    The rat study was used to calculate maximum levels of exposure for pregnant workers. This maximum – 0.001 mg dachtal/kg body weight/day – was considered appropriate to reduce risk to the unborn child (and was not expected to harm adults).

    However, the maximum acceptable level was exceeded in all estimates of exposure to dachtal. This was the case even when the person was wearing protective clothing, gloves, and using a respirator.

    Even under stringent safety conditions, potential harms to an unborn child could not be ruled out. For this reason the US stopped sale of dacthal via an Emergency Order on 6 August 2024. Australia has since followed suit with its own ban.

    How long have we known about this?

    The US government only received the thyroid information in 2022. It then had to determine whether the levels of exposure under real world conditions would equate to risk in humans.

    This is not straightforward, as the pesticide is used under a variety of conditions, including:

    • mixing and preparing the pesticide using personal protective equipment
    • downstream spay drift
    • treatment of lawns and exposure to the lawn after treatment.

    Each of these scenarios requires careful analysis of potential risks.

    In addition, exposure can be through inhalation and/or skin contact. All this must be taken into account and these calculations take time.

    Should I be worried?

    If you were not pregnant and using personal protective clothing while using or applying dacthal herbicides, this is little cause for worry. Your exposure is below the maximum limit.

    But if you were pregnant when using dacthal pesticides, please consider consulting your child’s paediatrician.

    Ian Musgrave has received funding from the National health and Medical Research Council to study contaminants in herbal medicines. He has received ARC funding for studying Alzheimer’s disease in the recent past. He is a member of the Science Communicators South Australian Branch.

    – ref. An immediate ban has been issued for the herbicide dacthal. What are the health risks? – https://theconversation.com/an-immediate-ban-has-been-issued-for-the-herbicide-dacthal-what-are-the-health-risks-241257

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australian schools need to address racism. Here are 4 ways they can do this

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Aaron Teo, Lecturer in Curriculum and Pedagogy, University of Southern Queensland

    The Australian Human Rights Commission wants to see schools address racism, as part of a broader push to address the problem across Australian society.

    As it says in a recent report,

    People are not born with racist attitudes or beliefs […] Addressing racism in schools is crucial to ensure that victims do not leave education facing lifelong disadvantage, and perpetrators do not enter adulthood believing racist behaviours are acceptable […].

    But racism is hardly mentioned in the Australian Curriculum – for example, it is noted in passing in the health and physical education curriculum for years 5 to 8. However, there is no consistent approach across subject areas, or at the state level.

    This means teaching about racism is largely left up to individual schools and teachers.

    Yet research shows they can be reluctant to speak about these issues with students. This is for a range of reasons, such as worrying they will say the wrong thing.

    How should school systems, schools and teachers address racism? Here are four ways.

    1. Teach racial literacy

    We know children demonstrate stereotyping and prejudice from an early age and students from racial minorities are frequently targets of racism and discrimination at school.

    In Australia, racism debates can also involve dangerous and ill-informed opinions.

    So we need to start teaching children and young people about racial literacy skills from the first year of schooling. This means they grow up to have the knowledge and language to talk about and confront racism.

    Some of these skills include:

    • being able to identify how racism appears in everyday interactions, the media and society more broadly

    • debunking common myths about racism, such as it is a “thing of the past”. Or “everyone has equal access to the same opportunities and outcomes if they work hard enough”

    • understanding the impacts of racism, including on people’s opportunities, education and their health and wellbeing

    • understanding how our own backgrounds, privilege and bias can influence how we confront or don’t confront racism.

    Students also need to learn how racism can be structural, systemic and institutional. This means racism is not just about an individuals’ beliefs or actions. Laws, policies, the way organisations are run and cultural norms can all result in inequitable treatment, opportunities and outcomes.

    2. Teach students how to react

    We also need to teach children how to react when they witness racism with age-appropriate tools.

    For both primary and secondary students, the first question should always be, “Is it safe for me to act?”, followed by “Am I the best person to act in this situation?”. Depending on their answers, they could:

    • report the incident to an appropriate adult or person in authority

    • show solidarity with the victim by comforting them and letting them know what happened was not OK

    • interrupt, distract or redirect the perpetrator

    • seek help from friends, a passerby or teacher.

    3. Create safe classrooms and playgrounds

    Teachers need to ensure classrooms and schools are safe spaces to discuss racism.

    This can include:

    • acknowledging how our own experiences, biases and privileges shape our world views

    • clearly defining the purpose of a discussion and the ground rules

    • using inclusive language.

    In particular, schools have a unique duty of care for minority students, who need to know they can talk openly about these issues with their peers and teachers without fear or judgement.

    This includes addressing sensitive topics like how they might experience or witness racism, the effect it can have on their health and wellbeing and those around them, and the consequences of talking about or reporting racism.

    4. Develop teachers’ skills

    As part of creating safe classrooms, teachers need to be able to confidently discuss tricky topics in an age-appropriate way.

    Our work has shown some teachers deny racism or perpetuate racist stereotypes. Others may avoid the topic, worrying they will say or do the wrong thing.

    Our current (as yet unpublished) research on anti-racism training with classroom teachers suggests they can increase their confidence to talk and teach about racism if given appropriate, and sustained training.

    What needs to happen now?

    We need anti-racism education to be an official part of school curricula. To accompany this, we need genuine commitments and modelling from policymakers, school leaders, teachers, parents and carers to address racism in schools.

    We need to talk openly about racism in schools. That means explicitly naming it, calling it out, and not getting defensive when it is identified and action is required.

    Aaron Teo is Convenor for the Australian Association for Research in Education Social Justice Special Interest Group, Queensland Convenor for the Asian Australian Alliance, member of the Challenging Racism Project, and member of the Advisory Committee for the Australian Human Rights Commission’s study into racism in Australian universities

    Rachel Sharples has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the NSW Department of Education. She is a member of the Challenging Racism Project (CRP) and the Centre for Resilient and Inclusive Communities (CRIS).

    – ref. Australian schools need to address racism. Here are 4 ways they can do this – https://theconversation.com/australian-schools-need-to-address-racism-here-are-4-ways-they-can-do-this-239823

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Albanese government promises to ban ‘dodgy’ trading practices

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Hard on the heels of pledging a crackdown on excessive surcharges, the Albanese government has promised legislation to ban unfair trading practices.

    The government said this would include specific prohibitions on various “dodgy” practices.

    “From concert tickets to hotel rooms to gym memberships, Australians are fed up with businesses using tricky tactics that make it difficult to end subscriptions or add hidden fees to purchases,” the prime minister, treasurer and assistant treasurer said in a statement.

    “These practices can distort purchasing decisions, or result in additional costs, putting more pressure on the cost of living.”

    They said the government would deal with

    • “subscription traps” that make it difficult to cancel a subscription

    • “drip pricing” characterised by hidden fees or fees added during the purchase

    • deceptive and manipulative online practices. These aim to confuse consumers, such as for example by creating a false sense of urgency, warning there is only a limited time to purchase

    • dynamic pricing, where a price changes during the transaction

    • requiring a consumer to set up an account and provide unnecessary information for an online purchase

    • a business making it difficult for a consumer to contact it when they have a problem with the product.

    Earlier this week Arts Minister Tony Burke said on the ABC the government was not looking at “dynamic pricing” in the music industry.

    Asked on Four Corners whether dynamic pricing should be allowed in Australia, Burke said: “Surge pricing is something that, as consumers, people have always dealt with.

    “I don’t love it, but I think we have to be realistic, it’s always been there. It’s not something we’re looking at, at the moment.”

    Asked about the discrepancy, a government spokesperson said the Four Corners interview “was recorded a month ago, before this policy existed”.

    Treasury will consult on the design of the planned changes. The government on Wednesday will put out a consultation paper on reforms for greater protections for consumers and small businesses under the consumer guarantees and supplier indemnification in the Australian Consumer Law.

    The government says it will work with the states to have a final reform proposal in the first half of next year.

    There will be penalties for suppliers that refuse to give consumers a remedy such as a replacement product or a refund when legally required.

    “Currently, it can be difficult for consumers to obtain a remedy, especially when engaging in the digital economy,” the government statement said.

    The reforms would empower the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission and state and territory agencies to pursue breaches of consumer guarantees and supplier indemnification provisions.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said “hidden fees and traps are putting even more pressure on the cost of living and it needs to stop”.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Albanese government promises to ban ‘dodgy’ trading practices – https://theconversation.com/albanese-government-promises-to-ban-dodgy-trading-practices-234142

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Awful reality’: Albanese government injects $95 million to fight the latest deadly bird flu

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Wille, Senior research fellow, The University of Melbourne

    The Australian government has committed A$95 million to fight a virulent strain of bird flu wreaking havoc globally.

    With the arrival of millions of migratory birds this spring, there is an increased risk of a deadly strain arriving in Australia, known as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1.

    Australia is the only continent free of this rapidly spreading strain. Overseas, HPAI H5N1 has been detected in poultry, wild birds and a wide range of mammals, including humans. But our reprieve will likely not last forever.

    As Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek warned on Monday, “the awful reality of this disease is that – like the rest of the world – we will not be able to prevent its arrival”. HPAI H5N1 is like nothing we’ve seen in Australia. The extra funding, which is in addition to Australia’s current biosecurity budget, will help us prepare and respond.

    A trail of destruction

    Avian influenza is a virus that infects birds, but can infect other animals.

    In Australia we have various strains of avian influenza that don’t cause disease, referred to as low pathogenic avian influenza. While these viruses occur naturally Australian wild birds, it is the disease-causing strains, such as HPAI H5N1 and HPAI H7 we are worried about. These HPAI strains have enormous consequences for wild birds, domestic animals, and animal producers and workers.

    HPAI H5N1 first emerged in Asia in 1996, and has been circulating in Asian poultry for decades. Following genetic changes in the virus, it repeatedly jumped into wild birds in 2014, 2016 and again in 2020, after which it caused an animal pandemic, or panzootic.

    Starting in 2021, the virus rapidly spread. First, from Europe to North America in 2021. Then into South America in 2022. There, in South America, the virus caused the death of more than 500,000 wild birds and 30,000 marine mammals.

    While we had seen large outbreaks in wild birds globally, the huge outbreaks in seals and sea lions in South America was unprecedented. With this came substantial concern that the virus was spreading from mammal to mammal, rather than just bird to bird or bird to mammal, as was happening elsewhere.

    About a year after arriving in South America, the virus was detected in the sub-Antarctic, and a few months later, on the Antarctic Peninsula.

    Australia and New Zealand are still free of the virus, for now.

    The rising death toll

    Beyond wildlife, HPAI H5N1 is having a huge impact on poultry.

    In 2022 alone, it caused 130 million poultry across 67 countries to die of the illness or be euthanased because they were infected.

    In contrast, earlier this year Australia’s biggest avian influenza outbreak to date – caused by a different strain, HPAI H7 – caused the death or destruction of 1.5 million chickens. That’s a drop in the bucket compared to what is occurring globally.

    Concerningly, in the United States, the virus has jumped into dairy cattle and so far has affected more than 200 dairy herds in 14 states. It has also jumping into humans: in the past ten days alone, six human cases have occurred – all in dairy workers in California.

    Given HPAI H5N1 has spread around the globe, the risk of the virus entering Australia has increased.

    In a recent risk assessment, my colleague and I identified two main pathways for H5N1 into Australia.

    The most likely route is that H5N1 is brought in from Asia by long-distance migratory birds. Birds such as shorebirds and seabirds arrive in the millions each spring from Asia (and in some cases as far away as Alaska).

    A second route is with ducks. If the virus spreads across the Wallace Line (a biogeographical boundary that runs through Indonesia), it will come into contact with endemic Australian duck species.

    Unlike shorebirds and seabirds, ducks are not long-distance migrants, and don’t migrate between Asia and Australia. That endemic Australian ducks are not exposed to this virus because they don’t migrate to Asia may be one of the reasons why H5N1 has not yet arrived in Australia.

    So, what’s the plan?

    The Australian government’s new $95 million funding commitment is a crucial response to the heightened level of risk, and the dire consequences if H5N1 entered the country.

    The funding is divided between environment, agriculture and human health – the three pillars of the “One Health” approach.

    Broadly, the money will be spent on:

    • enhancing surveillance to ensure timely detection and response if the disease enters and spreads in animals within Australia

    • strengthening preparedness and response capability to reduce harm to the production sector and native wildlife

    • supporting a nationally coordinated approach to response and communications

    • taking proactive measures to protect threatened iconic species from extinction

    • investing in more pre-pandemic vaccines to protect human health.

    Importantly, the funding covers preparedness, surveillance and response.

    Preparedness includes proactive measures to protect threatened birds – for example, vaccination or reducing other threats to these species) and improving biosecurity.

    Surveillance is essential to catch the virus as soon as it arrives and track its spread. Australia already has a wild bird surveillance program which, among other things, investigates sick and dead wildlife as well as sampling “healthy” wild birds. The additional commitment will bolster these activities.

    Response will include things like better and faster tests. It will also include funding for practical on-ground actions to limit the spread and impacts of HPAI H5N1 for susceptible wildlife. This might include a vaccination program for vulnerable threatened species, as an example.

    Work has already begun

    This funding is a long-term investment, and mostly allocated to future activities. In the short term, my colleagues and I have already begun our spring surveillance program.

    We aim to test about 1,000 long-distance migratory birds arriving in Australia for avian influenza. Based on our risk assessments, we are focusing on long-distance migratory seabirds such as the short-tailed shearwater, and various shorebirds including red-necked stints, arriving from breeding areas in Siberia.

    This surveillance program is supported by, and contributes to, the national surveillance program managed by Wildlife Health Australia

    In addition to our active surveillance, we need your help! If you see sick or dead wild birds or marine mammals, call the Emergency Animal Disease Watch Hotline on 1800 675 888.

    In addition, the Wildlife Health Australia website offers current advice for:

    For more information, visit birdflu.gov.au or Wildlife Health Australia’s avian influenza page

    Michelle Wille receives funding from Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and Wildlife Health Australia.

    – ref. ‘Awful reality’: Albanese government injects $95 million to fight the latest deadly bird flu – https://theconversation.com/awful-reality-albanese-government-injects-95-million-to-fight-the-latest-deadly-bird-flu-241243

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The AI sexbot industry is just getting started. It brings strange new questions – and risks

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Raffaele F Ciriello, Senior Lecturer in Business Information Systems, University of Sydney

    DALL-E via Shutterstock

    Artificial intelligence (AI) is getting personal. Chatbots are designed to imitate human interactions, and the rise of realistic voice chat is leading many users to form emotional attachments or laugh along with virtual podcast hosts.

    And that’s before we get to the really intimate stuff. Research has shown that sexual roleplaying is one of the most common uses of ChatGPT, and millions of people interact with AI-powered systems designed as virtual companions, such as such as Character.AI, Replika, and Chai.AI.

    What does this mean for the future of (human) romance? The prospects are alarming.

    Better be nice to your AI overlord

    The most prominent AI companion service is Replika, which allows some 30 million users to create custom digital girlfriends (or boyfriends).

    While early studies indicate most Replika users are male, Caucasian and under 30, other demographics are catching up. Male sex robots have been in the making for some years. And they’re more than just vibrators with integrated jar openers.

    For a subscription fee, users can exchange intimate messages or pictures with their AI partners. Over half a million users had subscribed before Replika temporarily disabled its “erotic roleplay” module in early 2023, fearing regulatory backlash — a move that users dubbed “The Lobotomy.”

    The Replika “lobotomy” highlights a key feature of virtual companions: their creators have complete control over their behaviour. The makers of apps can modify or shut down a user’s “partner” – and millions of others – at any moment. These systems also read everything users say, to tailor future interactions and, of course, ads.

    AI is coming to the physical sexbot industry too.
    Shutterstock

    However, these caveats don’t appear to be holding the industry back. New products are proliferating. One company, Kindroid, now offers voice chats with up to ten virtual companions simultaneously.

    The digital world isn’t the limit either. Sex doll vendors such as Joy Love Dolls offer interactive real-life sexbots, with not only customisable skin colour and breast size, but also “complete control” of features including movement, heating, and AI-enabled “moans, squeals, and even flirting from your doll, making her a great companion”.

    For now, virtual companions and AI sexbots remain a much smaller market than social media, with millions of users rather than billions. But as the history of the likes of Facebook, Google and Amazon has taught us, today’s digital quirks could become tomorrow’s global giants.

    Towards ethically sourced AI girlfriends?

    The availability of AI-driven relationships is likely to usher in all manner of ethically dubious behaviour from users who won’t have to face the real-world consequences.

    Soon, you might satisfy any kink with your AI girlfriend for an extra fee. If your AI wife becomes troublesome, just ask the corporate overlord to deactivate her envy module — for a price, of course. Or simply delete her and start fresh with as many AI mistresses as you like in parallel.

    The way people form relationships has already been disrupted by dating apps such as Tinder and Bumble.

    What will happen if, in the future, people looking for love are competing against perfect synthetic lovers that are always available and horny? Well, at least they’ll be able to create virtual replicas of those hot dates they didn’t land.

    And for those who lack the skills to create their own virtual companions, there will be plenty of off-the-shelf alternatives.

    An ABC investigation revealed the use of generative AI to create fake influencers by manipulating women’s social media images is already widespread. This is generally done without consent to sell pornographic content. Much of this content depicts unattainable body ideals, and some depicts people who appear to be at best barely of consenting age.

    Another likely application? Using AI sexbot technology to bring celebrities such as Marilyn Monroe and Clara Bow back to life. After all, dead people cannot deny consent anymore.

    Replika itself was inspired by its founder’s desire to recreate her late best friend through a chatbot. Many use the app to keep deceased loved ones around. What a time to be alive (or dead)!

    The potential for emotional manipulation by inventive catfishers and dictators is alarming. Imagine the havoc if figures like Russia’s Vladimir Putin or North Korea’s Kim Jong-un harness this technology to complement their nations’ already extensive cyber-espionage operations.

    Perhaps before long we will see corporations offering “responsibly sourced” AI girlfriends for the more ethical consumer – organically grown from consensually harvested content, promoting socially acceptable smut.

    Society and the state must act now

    With loneliness rising to epidemic levels — surveys suggest up to one in four people in OECD countries lack human connection — the demand for sexbots is only going to grow. Corporations will meet this demand unless society and the state set clear boundaries on what’s acceptable.

    Sex and technology have always co-evolved. Just as prostitution is “the oldest profession”, porn sites are some of the oldest corners of the internet. However, the dystopian potential of sexbots for mass-customised, corporate-controlled monetisation of our most intimate sphere is unprecedented.

    Users aren’t entirely blameless, either. There’s something vicious about replacing a real human being with a totally submissive lust machine.

    Early studies suggest narcissism is prevalent among users of this technology. Normalising harmful sexual behaviours such as rape, sadism or paedophilia is bad news for society.

    However, going after users isn’t likely to be the best way to tackle the issue. We should treat sexbot use like other potentially problematic behaviours, such as gambling.

    As with other problematic behaviours where the issue lies more with providers than users, it’s time to hold sexbot providers accountable. As our links to AI are growing ever more intimate, there’s not much time to waste.

    Raffaele F Ciriello does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The AI sexbot industry is just getting started. It brings strange new questions – and risks – https://theconversation.com/the-ai-sexbot-industry-is-just-getting-started-it-brings-strange-new-questions-and-risks-238998

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Two decades after decriminalisation, NZ’s sex workers still need protection from discrimination

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lynzi Armstrong, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    It has been two decades since New Zealand decriminalised sex work. And while sex workers have workplace rights, they still worry about the risks of discrimination in everyday life.

    In my recent research, local sex workers explained the benefits of decriminalisation – and what still needs to change. Their experiences highlight that while much has changed for the better, stigma remains an issue. Further change is needed to better protect sex workers from it.

    New Zealand’s experience is relevant right now, as a number of governments elsewhere are reviewing their laws around sex work.

    Scotland, for example, is considering a proposal that would criminalise the purchase of sex – known as the Nordic model due to its initial adoption in some Nordic countries.

    Supporters argue this will help sex workers and extend gender equality. But evidence suggests the Nordic model actually harms sex workers: it impedes safety strategies, increases the risk of violence, limits access to justice, and enables discrimination.

    What is decriminalisation?

    The other options are decriminalisation and legalisation. While these terms are often used interchangeably, they are different. Legalisation of sex work (in Germany and the Netherlands, for example) means legalising an act that was previously against the law.

    For sex workers, this means restrictive government regulation and control, which may include mandatory registration with authorities, compulsory sexual health checks, and permission to work in specific areas only.

    Decriminalisation, on the other hand, means repealing laws that make an act or behaviour a crime, but not necessarily introducing restrictive regulations specific to the sex industry.

    That said, decriminalisation does not mean there is no regulation. Instead, regulations are comparable to other businesses. The focus is not on regulating sex workers, but providing them with rights.

    Under New Zealand’s Prostitution Reform Act (2003) it is an offence to induce or compel a person to do sex work. Sex workers have the right to refuse to see clients for any reason at any time. If a sex worker wishes to stop doing sex work, they can access unemployment benefits immediately (rather than having the normal stand down period ).

    Impacts of decriminalisation in New Zealand

    Research three years after the law came into force found a majority of participants felt they had more rights and were more able to refuse to see clients than before. Several participants felt police attitudes towards them had improved.

    Subsequent research found relationships between street-based sex workers and police had improved. Decriminalisation supported the safety strategies of these sex workers better.

    There have also been several high-profile cases where sex workers have exercised their legal rights. Brothel-based sex workers won sexual harassment cases against business owners, and convictions of rape against two clients who covertly removed condoms during their bookings.

    Among the 26 sex workers we interviewed in New Zealand, participants described feeling fortunate to work in the decriminalised context. They also felt working conditions for sex workers were better than in other countries.

    One participant said:

    I also feel that we shouldn’t have to say “oh we’re so lucky” but we are compared to other people in other countries.

    Another felt decriminalisation gave sex workers a “protective layer”.

    This meant, as one participant put it, “we have rights, full stop”.

    Participants appreciated sex work being defined as work and the rights that accompany this. Decriminalisation was considered both ideal and normalised. As another explained,

    it’s been decriminalised for a long time now, like it’s part of our reality.

    Room for improvement?

    While participants felt grateful to work in the decriminalised context, this doesn’t mean there weren’t issues.

    Decriminalisation in New Zealand doesn’t include legal protection from discrimination. Sex workers have little recourse if they are treated unfairly because of their job.

    The sex workers we spoke with believed the social stigma of sex work was gradually fading, and instances of discrimination described by participants were rare. But they still feared the consequences of discrimination (such as being denied accommodation or premises to work from if their work became known to a landlord).

    They supported further legal protection from discrimination. For one participant this meant,

    I could tell people my job without […] any fear of backlash, and that would be fantastic.

    Participants also wanted the protections of decriminalisation extended to temporary migrants. People who hold temporary visas face deportation if they are found to be working in the sex industry, making them vulnerable to exploitation.

    Falling behind

    After two decades of decriminalisation, New Zealand risks falling behind as more jurisdictions (such as Victoria and Queensland in Australia) adopt decriminalised frameworks that build in protection from discrimination.

    Such protections mean it is no longer legal to deny a person accommodation or a job based on their sex work experience, or deny them a bank loan or mortgage.

    To keep up, New Zealand needs to follow suit. The next step is therefore to strengthen and expand the rights sex workers have.

    Perhaps then, in another 20 years, the country will still be seen as one that put the human rights of sex workers first and showed the rest of the world what equality really looks like.

    Lynzi Armstrong received funding from the Royal Society of New Zealand Marsden Fund (2019-2024)

    – ref. Two decades after decriminalisation, NZ’s sex workers still need protection from discrimination – https://theconversation.com/two-decades-after-decriminalisation-nzs-sex-workers-still-need-protection-from-discrimination-240787

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –