NewzIntel.com

Category: Features

  • MIL-Evening Report: Air-dropping food into Gaza is a ‘smokescreen’ – this is what must be done to prevent mass starvation

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amra Lee, PhD candidate in Protection of Civilians, Australian National University

    Israel partially lifted its aid blockade of Gaza this week in response to intensifying international pressure over the man-made famine in the devastated coastal strip.

    The United Arab Emirates and Jordan airdropped 25 tonnes of food and humanitarian supplies on Sunday. Israel has further announced daily pauses in its military strikes on Gaza and the opening of humanitarian corridors to facilitate UN aid deliveries.

    Israel reports it has permitted 70 trucks per day into the strip since May 19. This is well below the 500–600 trucks required per day, according to the United Nations.

    The UN emergency relief chief, Tom Fletcher, has characterised the next few days as “make or break” for humanitarian agencies trying to reach more than two million Gazans facing “famine-like conditions”.

    A third of Gazans have gone without food for several days and 90,000 women and children now require urgent care for acute malnutrition. Local health authorities have reported 147 deaths from starvation so far, 80% of whom are children.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed – without any evidence – “there is no starvation in Gaza”. This claim has been rejected by world leaders, including Netanyahu ally US President Donald Trump.

    Famine expert Alex de Waal has called the famine in Gaza without precedent:

    […] there’s no case of such minutely engineered, closely monitored, precisely designed mass starvation of a population as is happening in Gaza today.

    While the UN has welcomed the partial lifting of the blockade, the current aid being allowed into Gaza will not be enough to avert a wider catastrophe, due to the severity and depth of hunger in Gaza and the health needs of the people.

    According to the UN World Food Programme, which has enough food stockpiled to feed all of Gaza for three months, only one thing will work:

    An agreed ceasefire is the only way to reach everyone.

    Airdrops a ‘distraction and a smokescreen’

    Air-dropping food supplies is considered a last resort due to the undignified and unsafe manner in which the aid is delivered.

    The UN has already reported civilians being injured when packages have fallen on tents.

    The Global Protection Cluster, a network of non-governmental organisations and UN agencies, shared a story from a mother in Al Karama, east of Gaza City, whose home was hit by an airdropped pallet, causing the roof to collapse:

    Immediately following the impact, a group of people armed with knives rushed towards the house, while the mother locked herself and her children in the remaining room to protect her family. They did not receive any assistance and are fearful for their safety.

    Air-dropped pallets of food are also inefficient compared with what can be delivered by road.

    One truck can carry up to 20 tonnes of supplies. Trucks can also reach Gaza quickly if they are allowed to cross at the scale required. Aid agencies have repeatedly said they have the necessary aid and personnel sitting just one hour away at the border.

    Given how ineffective the air drops have been – and will continue to be – the head of the UN Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine has called them a “distraction” and a “smokescreen”.

    Malnourished women and children need specialised care

    De Waal has also made clear how starvation differs from other war crimes – it takes weeks of denying aid for starvation to take hold.

    For the 90,000 acutely malnourished women and children who require specialised and supplementary feeding, in addition to medical care, the type of food being air-dropped into Gaza will not help them. Malnourished children require nutritional screening and access to fortified pastes and baby food.

    Gaza’s decimated health system is also not able to treat severely malnourished women and children, who are at risk of “refeeding syndrome” when they are provided with nutrients again. This can trigger a fatal metabolic response.

    Gaza will take generations to heal from the long-term impacts of mass starvation. Malnourished children suffer lifelong cognitive and physical effects that can then be passed on to future generations.

    What needs to happen now

    The UN has characterised the limited reopening of aid deliveries to Gaza as a potential “lifeline”, if it’s upheld and expanded.

    According to Ciaran Donnelly from the International Rescue Committee, what’s needed is “tragically simple”: Israel must fully open the Gaza borders to allow aid and humanitarian personnel to flood in.

    Israel must also guarantee safe conditions for the dignified distribution of aid that reaches everyone, including women, children, the elderly and people with disabilities. The level of hunger and insecurity mean these groups are at high risk of exclusion.

    The people of Gaza have the world’s attention – for now. They have endured increasingly dehumanising conditions – including the risk of being shot trying to access aid – under the cover of war for more than 21 months.

    Two leading Israeli human rights organisations have just publicly called Israel’s war on Gaza “a genocide”. This builds on mounting evidence compiled by the UN and other experts that supports the same conclusion, triggering the duty under international law for all states to act to prevent genocide.

    These obligations require more than words – states must exercise their full diplomatic leverage to pressure Israel to let aid in at the scale required to avert famine. States must also pressure Israel to extend its military pauses into the only durable solution – a permanent ceasefire.

    Amra Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Air-dropping food into Gaza is a ‘smokescreen’ – this is what must be done to prevent mass starvation – https://theconversation.com/air-dropping-food-into-gaza-is-a-smokescreen-this-is-what-must-be-done-to-prevent-mass-starvation-262053

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: From futuristic design icon to environmental villain – the 80-year history of the plastic chair

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Geoff Isaac, Research Fellow, Design, Architecture and Building, University of Technology Sydney

    The Magis Bell Chair, made from recycled plastic, saves energy during production and transport and produces less waste for recycling or disposal at end of life. Magis

    What springs to mind when you’re asked to think of plastic chairs? Do you picture the ubiquitous lightweight, stackable polypropylene chair sold cheaply in hardware stores worldwide?

    Or perhaps you picture something more glamorous, such as Shiro Kuramata’s Miss Blanche (1988). This limited-edition artwork, featuring imitation roses suspended in acrylic resin, now sells for more than US$500,000 at auction.

    I research industrial design, exploring the symbiotic relationship between technology, commercial design and sustainability. The 80-year history of the plastic chair was the focus of my PhD.

    This humble, ubiquitous object offers unique insights into society’s shifting attitudes to plastic, and the changes to come.

    An 80-year history

    The story of the plastic chair began in the United States in the 1930s, when petrochemical manufacturers DuPont and Röhm & Haas started mass-producing acrylic glass.

    The material, available in rods and sheets, enabled industrial designers to produce a wide range of consumer products using traditional manufacturing techniques.

    Widespread shortages of traditional materials during World War II drove further development of plastics.

    After the war, designers and manufacturers quickly embraced plastics. They were seen as the foundation of a new, plentiful future, allowing the masses to access products previously reserved for the elite. Many household items such as televisions, toys and upholstery became cheaper, thanks to plastics.

    Fibreglass manufacturing advanced during WWII to support the US Navy. This involves weaving strands of glass into a loose mat, which is then placed into a mould. Polyester resin is poured in to bind the fibres together before it hardens into a solid shape. Fibreglass is strong, lightweight, corrosion-resistant and can be moulded into complex shapes.

    The first fibreglass chair designs were Charles and Ray Eames’ Plastic Armchair and Eero Saarinen’s Tulip Chair. Then the Space Age (1957–69) inspired enthusiastic experiments with technicolor-saturated glossy surfaces and futuristic curved shapes, all made possible by fibreglass.

    Designers could handcraft prototypes, perfecting comfort and form. Many designs from this era are still in production and often feature in science fiction films.

    Plastic furniture features many in sci-fi movies (Scandinavian Design 101)

    A shift in public sentiment

    Looking back at Earth from space was a turning point for humanity. The famous Earthrise photo captured the precarious nature of our existence and dependence on finite resources, such as fossil fuels. Oil was used to make most plastic at that time.

    In the 1970s, the price of oil shot up tenfold when Arab nations banned petroleum exports and cut oil production during the Arab–Iraeli War. The Iraq–Iran war followed. In 1981, oil reached US$31 per barrel. Suddenly, plastics were expensive.

    Early plastics also had drawbacks. Colours faded and surfaces scratched, eroding consumer confidence. Disillusioned consumers began to favour traditional materials such as metal and timber. Few noteworthy plastic chair designs appeared during the next two decades.

    In response, the plastics industry changed tactics. If consumers favoured wooden furniture, then woodchips and veneer – held together by polymer adhesives and varnished with polyurethane – offered a cost-effective solution. Plastics were simply camouflaged within an ever-increasing range of products.

    As the environmental impacts of plastics became evident, the industry recognised it had an image problem and launched a major public relations effort around recycling. It worked. By the end of the century, plastics were fashionable again.

    Recycling eases guilt

    From the late 1990s, leading designers enthusiastically embraced injection moulding. This was much cheaper and faster than labour-intensive fibreglass.

    Philippe Starck’s LaMarie for Kartell launched a new trend for translucent chairs. Karim Rashid launched the affordable Oh Chair and Jasper Morrison introduced air injection moulding to the industry with the Air Chair.

    The revival was brief. The limitations of mechanical recycling gradually became more widely understood. Of the 8.3 billion tonnes of plastic produced by 2020, just 9% had been recycled, or more accurately “downcycled” such as by turning PET bottles into polyester for clothing.

    Ocean pollution became a focus when it was shown that by 2050, there will be more plastic than fish in our seas. Alarm further intensified over the impact of chemical additives used in plastics and their effects on human health and the ability to reproduce.

    In response, designers and manufactures are now exploring plastics made at least partly from recycled plastics or renewable organic resources such as plants, algae or even carbon dioxide (bioplastics).

    My study of 60 such chairs identified the Bell Chair as the best of the bunch. Made from just 2.8kg of plastic waste, the design minimises the amount of energy required to make and transport the chair.

    These chairs come off the automated production line stacked 12-high for efficient transport. The manufacturer Magis also claims Bell Chairs can be recycled at end-of-life. But the lack of a resin identification code mark, and the inclusion of fibreglass, make it unlikely the product will actually be recycled.

    I thought my study would identify chairs made from bioplastics as delivering superior environmental outcomes. However, designers working with these materials were forced to compensate for inferior material strength by bulking up their designs, or mixing bio-based material with traditional plastics.

    Bulky designs demand higher energy consumption during manufacture and transport, while hybridised materials are problematic as they cannot be recycled and are not biodegradable.

    Siamese Chair, designed by Karim Rashid in 2014. The bioplastic made from acai fruit and bark from Ipe Roxo trees was not strong enough for the legs, and the shell of the chair had to be bulked up. The use of aluminium for the legs and the energy consumed during production and transport meant this 9.8kg chair achieved a weak score in my analysis.
    A Lot of Brasil

    The chair of the future

    Bans on single-use plastics, and measures to reduce plastic packaging and increase recycled content in packaging and products, are beginning to take effect. Manufacturers are also experimenting with renewable plastics in consumer goods.

    But to achieve global emissions-reduction targets, the transition from virgin fossil-based plastics to renewable plastics must accelerate. Government intervention will be crucial where voluntary industry agreements are failing, both at home and abroad.

    It’s likely the plastic chair of the future will be made entirely from renewable organic resources. Creating a more circular plastics economy is not only possible, it’s imperative.



    Read more:
    Curious Kids: why can some plastics be recycled but others can’t?

    Geoff Isaac does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From futuristic design icon to environmental villain – the 80-year history of the plastic chair – https://theconversation.com/from-futuristic-design-icon-to-environmental-villain-the-80-year-history-of-the-plastic-chair-257470

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: Albanese wants international cover before Australia recognises Palestine as a state

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Anthony Albanese will recall well when another Labor prime minister was feeling the heat over Palestinian status.

    It was 2012 and then-Prime Minister Julia Gillard was forced into a corner over the stand Australia should take on a motion to give Palestine observer status at the United Nations.

    Gillard and her foreign minister, Bob Carr, clashed over the matter. Gillard wanted to oppose the motion, siding with the United States and Israel. Carr and others pushed back hard, and eventually Australia abstained.

    In his book, Diary of a Foreign Minister, Carr records that in the cabinet debate earlier, “Albanese gave a no-holds-barred robust presentation of the case for voting ‘yes’ or abstaining”.

    Now Albanese, in the wake of France having just declared it will recognise Palestine as a state, faces another, albeit different, iteration of the Palestinian status issue. The circumstances are much more direct and acute. On this occasion, he is arguing for time.

    Carr is still out there advocating. But a more central voice is former minister Ed Husic (who was around in 2012, too, but still on the backbench). The Labor rank and file are strongly pro-Palestine. They are backed by the ALP platform, which calls for Palestine to be recognised as a state.

    Even as a minister in the last parliamentary term, bound by cabinet solidarity, Husic pushed the boundaries when speaking out about the Middle East conflict. Having been dumped from the frontbench in factional manoeuvring after the election, he is free to say bluntly what he thinks. Now he is putting his shoulder to the wheel to advocate recognition.

    In a Guardian article on Monday he reminded his Labor peers and betters “that our party has twice agreed at its highest decision-making forum – the National Conference of the Australian Labor party – to recognise the state of Palestine.

    “The time to do so is absolutely right now.”

    Albanese is caught between his party and his caution.

    It is a fair assumption the prime minister, with his long history of being pro-Palestinian, would like to follow the lead of French President Emmanuel Macron.

    Equally, however, he would want Australia to move in concert with like-minded countries, including the United Kingdom, Canada and New Zealand. Australia has previously banded with these countries in joint statements about the Middle East conflict.

    Albanese said at the weekend Australian recognition of a Palestinian state wasn’t imminent – although last year Foreign Minister Penny Wong opened the way for possible recognition as part of a peace process (rather than only accorded at the end of it).

    The prime minister put a context around recognition. “How do you exclude Hamas from any involvement there? How do you ensure that a Palestinian state operates in an appropriate way which does not threaten the existence of Israel? And so we don’t do any decision as a gesture. We will do it as a way forward if the circumstances are met.”

    In caucus on Tuesday, Husic pressed his point, asking how long the preconditions for statehood could be expected to take. Albanese essentially went through what he’d said before.

    Labor’s Friends of Palestine group is pressing for sanctions, as well as recognition.

    The group’s spokesperson Peter Moss says: “Over the past 21 months, Labor members in branches and conferences have repeatedly urged the government to join 147 UN member states and now France in recognising Palestine.

    “By making recognition contingent on a non-existent peace process, the government has effectively ruled out delivering on policy that has broad public support.

    “We call on the Australian government to implement official platform policy and immediately and unconditionally recognise a Palestinian state on the pre-4 June 1967 borders.”

    In recent weeks more than 80 Labor branches and other party units have passed a strong motion calling for sanctions and an arms embargo on Israel.

    In the last few days, the group wrote to Wong, seeking a meeting to discuss its calls for sanctions and for the Albanese government “to work with international partners to develop a practical plan for the establishment of a free and independent Palestinian State”. No meeting has yet been arranged.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from The Hill: Albanese wants international cover before Australia recognises Palestine as a state – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-albanese-wants-international-cover-before-australia-recognises-palestine-as-a-state-262028

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Uganda’s land eviction crisis: do populist state measures actually fix problems?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rose Nakayi, Senior Lecturer of Law, Makerere University

    Populism is rife in various African countries. This political ideology responds to and takes advantage of a situation where a large section of people feels exploited, marginalised or disempowered. It sets up “the people” against “the other”. It promises solidarity with the excluded by addressing their grievances. Populism targets broad social groups, operating across ethnicity and class.

    But how does populism fare when it informs state interventions to address long-standing societal issues under capitalism? Do populist state measures – especially when launched by a politically powerful leader – deliver improvements for the stated beneficiaries?

    As academics who have researched populism for years, we were interested in the implementation and outcomes of such policies and programmes. To answer these questions, we analysed a populist intervention by President Yoweri Museveni in Uganda to address rampant land conflicts. In 2013 he set out to halt land evictions.

    What good came of this? Did it help the poor?

    We analysed land laws, court cases, government statements and media reports and found that, for the most part, the intervention offered short-term relief. Some people returned to the land, but the underlying land conflict was unresolved.

    This created problems that continue to be felt today, including land disputes and land tenure insecurity. The intervention also increased the involvement of the president and his agents personally in providing justice.

    It didn’t make pro-poor structural changes to address the root of the problem.

    Yet, the intervention had several political benefits:

    • it enhanced the political legitimacy of the president and state

    • it offered a politically useful response to a land-related crisis and conflict

    • it addressed broader criticisms over injustice and poverty by sections of the public and opposition leaders, some of whom (like Robert Kyagulanyi) also relied on populist rhetoric.

    The promise to deal with land evictions “once and for all” has yet to be realised over a decade later. During Heroes Day celebrations on 9 June 2024, Museveni’s speech repeated his promise to stop evictions.

    Such promises of getting a grip on and ending evictions via decisive state actions, including proposed new legal guidelines, were also made more recently, for example during Heroes Day 2025. This indicates that evictions – and state responses to them – remain a top issue on the political agenda ahead of Uganda’s 2026 election.

    Persistent evictions

    Evictions were rampant in the 2010s, especially in central Uganda’s Buganda region. They were driven by increased demand for land amid a growing population and legal reforms that seemed to protect tenants over landlords. Some landlords, desperate to free their land of tenants, were carrying out the evictions themselves.

    The president condemned the evictions, but they continued. Soon, the number of evictees was in the thousands.

    In response, Museveni set up a land committee within the presidency. He announced at a press conference in early 2013 that:

    all evictions are halted. There will be no more evictions, especially in the rural areas. All evictions involving peasants are halted.

    The dynamics of populism-in-practice

    Museveni’s attempts to personally deal with evictions illustrate a continued power shift in Uganda, from institutions to the president’s executive units.

    Despite its shortcomings, such as case backlogs, the judicial system offers an opportunity to present cases in a more neutral environment. It also allows parties to appeal decisions. This way, higher courts can correct errors where necessary.

    The presidential land committee, we found, tended to be biased in favour of tenants, paying less attention to the landlords’ cases.

    The president’s intervention wasn’t adequate to address the immediate causes and effects of the evictions, nor the root causes.

    Those included land tenure insecurities. Due to legal reforms, land-rich landlords were unable to get rent at market value from tenants. Neither could they evict them lawfully where rent was in arrears.

    In some cases, legal options such as land sales between landlords and tenants were applied. This was often to the detriment of tenants, especially where there was no neutral actor to oversee negotiations.

    Land reforms need to be institutionalised and funded to deliver the intended outcomes. Otherwise, unlawful sales and evictions become a quick option for landlords.

    Museveni’s populist initiative also unleashed new problems for beneficiaries. Some secured land occupancy in the interim but lived in fear of a relapse of conflict. Mistrust and scarred interpersonal relationships hampered cohesion in some communities. Disputes over land put political actors who would ideally be working together to restore calm at loggerheads.

    Populism as power

    The creation of populist presidential units has become routine in Uganda. More recently, Museveni created a unit to protect investors, which has resolved some investment-related land disputes. Another one was established to fight corruption. Both units remain very active.

    Our research finds that the government needs these units and interventions for a number of reasons. It uses them to govern the country’s conflict-ridden economy and society. They allow the government to assemble a politically useful response to crises and to address some on-the-ground problems. They make the state look concerned and responsive to people’s needs. And they allow ruling party political actors to increase their popularity locally.

    Museveni and his ruling party, the National Resistance Movement, therefore, benefit from a key aspect of populism. It allows the merging of disparate, competing and contradictory views, interests and demands of members of various societal classes and groups into a significantly simplified and uniform narrative that (potentially) speaks to all. This could mean: end corruption, end evictions, wealth for all, and so on.

    A general election is due in early 2026. The steps Museveni has taken on evictions, and the units set up to fight corruption or protect investors, need to be seen with this political context in mind.

    Museveni has put protecting people from evictions high on his government’s agenda. Speaking to party members in August 2024, he emphasised

    the importance of adhering to the mass line, which prioritises the needs and rights of the masses over those of the elite.

    In our view, this pre-election narrative signifies the continued political and social relevance of populism in today’s Uganda. This could result in heightened populist state activity in the run-up to and after the election.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Uganda’s land eviction crisis: do populist state measures actually fix problems? – https://theconversation.com/ugandas-land-eviction-crisis-do-populist-state-measures-actually-fix-problems-260512

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How Marvel’s Fantastic Four discovered the human in the superhuman

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By J. Andrew Deman, Professor of English, University of Waterloo

    The Fantastic Four: First Steps is the second cinematic reboot of the Fantastic Four franchise, and there’s a lot riding on this film.

    While cinema-goers have responded enthusiastically to many of the films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, the history of the Fantastic Four on the silver screen is less heralded.

    All the previous Fantastic Four films have been “commercial and critical failures,” with the 2015 film being an infamous box office bomb.

    Yet in comics history, the Fantastic Four have been up to the challenge of driving a popular media enterprise forward — something that the film producers and Marvel fans alike are both now hoping for.

    ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ trailer.

    In the 1960s — the era in which Fantastic Four: First Steps, is notably set — the comics presented a new class of superhero.

    From their 1961 debut, Reed Richards/Mr. Fantastic, Sue Storm/the Invisible Girl, Johnny Storm/the Human Torch and Ben Grimm/the Thing were celebrities who rented office space in a Manhattan highrise and found themselves variously beloved and reviled by both the public and the government.

    Cover of ‘The Fantastic Four’ No. 1, 1961.
    (Marvel)

    The team also rejected secret identities. Until the third issue of their series, they even eschewed superhero costumes (in part because of a restriction imposed by the owner of Marvel’s then-distributor, DC Comics).

    Pushed representational boundaries

    The Fantastic Four comics of the 1960s also pushed boundaries in a number of significant ways. They featured the first pair of married superheroes (Reed and Sue wed in 1965) and the first superhero pregnancy (Sue gave birth to her son Franklin in 1968).

    In 1966, Fantastic Four No. 52 introduced the Black Panther, who is widely recognized as the first high-profile Black superhero.



    Read more:
    *Black Panther* roars. Are we listening?

    And though not canonical until 2002, it has been suggested by scholars that Ben Grimm was always envisioned as a Jewish superhero by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby, offering another milestone in representation (at least for those readers attuned to the character’s Jewish coding).

    These milestones emphasize a dedicated concern for the human aspects of superheroes.

    A family with relatable issues

    Set amid fittingly fantastic science-fiction landscapes inspired by Space Age optimism was a story about a family who “fought among themselves, sometimes over petty jealousies and insults,” in the words of Christopher Pizzino, an American scholar of contemporary literature, film and television.

    This approach of building character dynamics out of internal conflict proved deeply influential.

    Famed comics writer Grant Morrison argues that through the example of Fantastic Four, “the Marvel superhero was born: a hero who tussled not only with monsters and mad scientists but also with relatable personal issues.”

    In his bestselling book All the Marvels, comics critic and historian Douglas Wolk concurs that the “first hundred issues of Fantastic Four are Marvel’s Bible and manual,” establishing the style, theme, genre and approach of the company’s comics for decades to come.

    Marvel’s universe continued to expand following the Fantastic Four debut.
    (Marvel)

    Defining personal conflicts

    In contrast to moral paragons such as Superman, Batman and Wonder Woman (all published by rival DC Comics), each member of Marvel’s Fantastic Four had defining personal conflicts.

    Reed Richards, the team’s patriarch, was a world-altering genius who often fell victim to his own hubristic ambition.

    Two years before American feminist author Betty Friedan identified “the problem that has no name” in The Feminine Mystique (that post-war suburban housewives faced social expectations of being fully fulfilled as wives and mothers, the Fantastic Four gave audiences Sue Storm, with the superpower to render herself — and others — invisible at will.

    Storm, according to scholar Ramzi Fawaz, “made the concept of women’s social invisibility an object of visual critique by making invisible bodies and objects conspicuous on the comic book page.”

    Her younger brother, Johnny Storm, a playboy and showboat, had a lot of growing up to do, a journey that was frustrated by his flashy powers.

    Ben Grimm, Reed’s college roommate turned best friend turned rock monster, oscillated between childlike rage and world-weary depression, his rocky hide granting him super-strength and invulnerability while burdening him with social isolation.

    While none of us are likely to acquire superpowers through exposure to cosmic rays like the Four, we’ve all dealt with anxiety and grief like these heroes.

    Origin of the Marvel universe

    The world of the Fantastic Four didn’t just feel unusually human. It also felt unusually lived in, partly because the Fantastic Four comics of the 1960s weren’t just the origin of the Marvel style of storytelling — they were also the origin of the Marvel universe.

    Fantastic Four began and became the model for Marvel’s shared continuity universe, in which dozens of superheroes passed in and out of each other’s stories and occasionally intersected long enough for whole crossover story arcs and events. For a time, Marvel’s superheroes even aged alongside their readers, with teenage characters like Johnny Storm graduating high school and enrolling in college.

    Previous superhero comics hadn’t embraced this shared continuity in a meaningful way, tending to prioritize discrete stories that had no effect on future tales. But Fantastic Four pitched what comics scholar Charles Hatfield calls “intertitle continuity,” which quickly became “Marvel’s main selling tool.”

    Case in point, the Fantastic Four shared the cover of 1963’s Amazing Spider-Man No. 1, helping sell the newly created wall-crawler to their adoring readers.

    Voluminous, chaotic universe

    The 1965 wedding of Reed and Sue in Fantastic Four Annual No. 3 showcased how quickly the Marvel comics universe became vibrantly voluminous and charmingly chaotic.

    This event featured at least 19 superheroes fighting 28 supervillains and foregrounded the Fantastic Four’s symbolic mother and father as the progenitors of an extended super-family.

    It also featured a cameo by the Fantastic Four’s creators, Stan Lee and Jack Kirby, previously introduced in 1963’s Fantastic Four No. 10 as the official creators of imaginary adventures starring the “real” Fantastic Four, further blurring the boundary between fiction and reality.

    Decades later, this sprawling comics universe would become a sprawling cinematic universe. This informs the pressure facing the latest Fantastic Four adaptation.

    Phase 6 of universe

    Fantastic Four: First Steps marks the start of what Marvel calls “Phase Six” of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which began in 2008 with the first Marvel Studios film, Iron Man.

    Essentially, Fantastic Four: First Steps is meant to launch a new cluster of shared universe stories, just as Fantastic Four No. 1 did for Marvel Comics in the 1960s.

    This cluster will culminate in the release of Avengers: Secret Wars in December 2027. Will Marvel’s first family deliver?

    This article is co-authored by Anna Peppard, an independent scholar and editor of ‘Supersex: Sexuality, Fantasy, and the Superhero.’

    J. Andrew Deman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Marvel’s Fantastic Four discovered the human in the superhuman – https://theconversation.com/how-marvels-fantastic-four-discovered-the-human-in-the-superhuman-260883

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Women’s rugby is booming, but safety relies on borrowed assumptions from the men’s game

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathryn Dane, Postdoctoral associate, University of Calgary

    Rugby union, commonly known as just rugby, is a fast-paced and physical team sport. More girls and women in Canada and around the world are playing it now than ever before.

    As of 2021, women’s rugby reached a record 2.7 million players globally, a 25 per cent increase over four years, and by 2023, women’s rugby participation was growing at a rate of 38 per cent year-over-year.

    Countries including Australia, England, Ireland and the United States offer professional contracts for women’s teams. While these remain modest compared to the men’s game, they still represent a clear step forward.

    Canada’s senior women’s XVs team is currently ranked second in the world and heading into the 2025 Rugby World Cup, which kicks off on Aug. 22 in England. The national sevens team also captured silver at the 2024 Paris Olympics — further evidence of the game’s growing competitiveness in Canada.

    However, many systems, including coaching and medical support, have not kept pace with the demands of elite competition. With visibility increasing ahead of the 2025 World Cup, stronger institutional support is needed to match the sports’ growing professionalism and popularity.

    Safety concerns

    Often described as a “game for all”, rugby builds confidence, resilience and lifelong friendships. For girls and women especially, rugby can be empowering in ways few sports can match. It embraces the physicality of tackling, pushes back against traditional gender expectations and fosters solidarity and inclusion by valuing all body shapes and abilities.

    But rugby is also a collision sport, and as such, it carries inherent risks. Tackling is the top cause of injury in rugby, and it has one of the highest concussion rates among youth girls’ sports in Canada. Concussions can have long-term effects on players’ health.



    Read more:
    Concussion is more than sports injuries: Who’s at risk and how Canadian researchers are seeking better diagnostics and treatments

    These concerns are especially urgent as the women’s game becomes more physical and professionalized, and players are hit harder and more often. Unlike men’s rugby, women’s teams often operate with fewer medical or coaching support resources, which can lead to inconsistent or absent injury prevention programs.

    Compounding the risk is the fact that many women also come to rugby later in life, often with less experience in contact sports. This delayed exposure restricts proper tackle skill development and player confidence in contact. This means safe tackling is even more important.

    Without proper supports, the physical risks of the game may outweigh its benefits.

    Science is still playing catch-up

    While women’s rugby is growing rapidly, the science behind it is has not kept pace. Most of what we know about rugby safety — how to tackle, how much to train or when it’s safe to return to play after injury — largely comes from research on men.

    Decisions around coaching and player welfare have been based on male data, leaving female players under-served and potentially at greater risk. While these foundations may well apply to girls and women, the problem is we don’t yet know for sure.

    Only four per cent of rugby tackle research has focused on women. Much of the early evidence on girls rugby comes from Canada, underscoring the country’s leadership in this space. Still, most coaches and clinicians rely on a “one-size-fits-all” approach that may not account for menstrual cycles, pregnancy, different injury profiles or later sport entry.

    The differences matter because strength, speed and injury risk all vary. Women are 2.6 times more likely than men to sustain a concussion. Gender also shapes access to training, care and facilities, often limiting opportunities for women to develop safe tackling skills, receive adequate support and train in safe, well-resourced environments, factors that impact both performance and safety.



    Read more:
    Prevention is better than cure when it comes to high concussion rates in girls’ rugby

    Even safety tools reflect this gap. World Rugby’s Tackle Ready and contact load guidelines were designed around male athletes. While well-intentioned, we know little about how they work for girls and women. Instead of discarding these tools, we need to adapt and evaluate them in female contexts to ensure they support injury prevention and provide equal protection.

    Women’s rugby needs better data

    Change is underway. More research and tools are being designed specifically for girls and women. A search of PubMed, a database of published biomedical research, reveals a steep rise in studies on women’s rugby over the past decade, especially in injury surveillance, injury prevention, performance, physiology and sociocultural contexts.

    New rule trials, such as testing lower tackle heights, are being evaluated on women athletes. New technologies like instrumented mouthguards and video analysis are also helping researchers understand how girls and women tackle, how head impacts happen and how they can be prevented.

    Much of this new research is led by our team at the Sport Injury Prevention Research Centre, a pan-Canadian, multidisciplinary group focused on moving upstream to prevent concussions in adolescent girls’ rugby.

    The women’s game is also driving its own innovations. Resources like World Rugby’s Contact Confident help girls and women safely build tackle skills, particularly those new to contact sport.

    Researchers are analyzing injury patterns, interviewing players and coaches and studying return-to-play pathways that reflect girls’ and women’s physiology and life stages.

    The scope of research is also expanding to pelvic health, breast protection and more tailored injury prevention. Global collaboration is making this work more inclusive, spanning different countries, skill levels and age groups, not just elite competitions.

    But this is just the start.

    A golden opportunity lies ahead

    Girls’ and women’s rugby is experiencing unprecedented growth. Rising participation, media attention and new sponsorships are fuelling momentum. It’s a golden opportunity to build strong, sustainable foundations.

    Gold-standard support requires focused, ongoing research and a commitment to sharing that evidence with players, coaches, health-care providers and policymakers. It’s time to build systems for women’s rugby based on women’s data, not borrowed assumptions from the men’s game.

    But challenges remain. Some national teams still have to raise funds to attend World Cups. Others train without consistent access to medical or performance staff — clear signs that the women’s game is still catching up.

    To sustain and accelerate the growth of girls’ and women’s rugby, the sport deserves more resources and research tailored specifically to participants. A “one-size-fits-all” model no longer works. By investing in systems that are safer, focused on prevention, more inclusive and grounded in evidence, we can build a thriving future for women’s rugby that lasts for generations to come.

    Isla Shill has received funding from World Rugby.

    Stephen West has previously received funding from World Rugby

    Kathryn Dane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Women’s rugby is booming, but safety relies on borrowed assumptions from the men’s game – https://theconversation.com/womens-rugby-is-booming-but-safety-relies-on-borrowed-assumptions-from-the-mens-game-261055

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Barnaby Joyce wants Australia to abandon net zero – but his 4 central claims don’t stack up

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ella Vines, Post-doctoral researcher, Green Lab, Monash University

    One-time Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce sought to dominate the first sitting week of the current federal parliament by proposing a divisive plan to reverse Australia’s net zero emissions target.

    The campaign, backed by fellow former Nationals leader Michael McCormack, aims to repeal what Joyce calls Australia’s “lunatic crusade” of net zero by 2050. It comes as Opposition Leader Sussan Ley convenes a working group to set a way forward on climate and energy policy following the Coalition’s historic election defeat.

    Meanwhile, the Albanese government is considering Australia’s next round of emissions reduction targets. And scientists warn just three years remain for the world to keep global warming below the vital 1.5°C threshold.

    If Australia is to take meaningful climate action, federal parliament must engage with the facts honestly and without distortion. So let’s take a closer look at whether Joyce and McCormack’s latest claims withstand scrutiny.

    Claim 1: Australia’s net zero policy will not address climate change

    Joyce describes as “perverse” the notion that Australia’s net zero goal can meaningfully help address global climate change.

    This claim is not backed by science.

    Every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions adds to global warming. What’s more, Joyce’s claim ignores the near-universal agreement of nations signed up to the Paris Agreement – including Australia – to pursue efforts (including domestic measures) to limit the average global temperature rise to 1.5°C.

    It’s true that collective national efforts to curb warming have so far been insufficient. But that doesn’t mean they should be abandoned.

    Claim 2: Global support for net zero is waning

    McCormack claims there is a growing global shift against net zero, and Joyce describes it as “a peculiar minority position”.

    This statement is not backed by evidence.

    In fact, the number of countries, cities, businesses and other institutions pledging to get to net-zero is growing.

    In the United States, President Donald Trump has dismantled climate policy, damaging that nation’s progress towards net zero. But many US states have retained the target, and global climate action will continue regardless of Trump’s actions.

    A landmark court ruling this week is likely to further strengthen global pressure for nations to ramp up emissions reduction. The advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice observed countries are legally obliged to prevent harms caused by climate change – including by regulating the fossil fuel industry.

    As others have noted, Australia must now reconsider its stance on approving new fossil fuel projects – including those geared to export markets.

    the International Court of Justice said countries are legally obliged to prevent harms caused by climate change.
    JOHN THYS/AFP via Getty Images

    Claims 3: the net zero goal is a security threat

    Joyce claims a net zero policy agenda is “treacherous” for Australia’s security and will “inflame our incapacity” to contend with geopolitical threats.

    But evidence suggests the opposite is true. There is a significant link between climate change and certain types of military conflicts.

    Research predicts the Australian Defence Force will become involved in more wars as the climate crisis escalates, and respond to more frequent climate-related disasters inside our borders.

    Claim 4: net zero is bad for regional Australia

    Both Joyce and McCormack say the net zero target and associated renewable energy rollout is devastating regional Australia. The Institute of Public Affairs, a prominent right-wing think tank, this week launched a documentary making similar claims.

    Joyce cited division in rural communities over renewable energy. In reality, there is significant support in regional Australia for such technology. A poll last year by Farmers for Climate Action found 70% of regional Australians in renewable energy zones support the development of renewable energy projects on local farmland.

    Joyce also pointed to “the removal of agricultural land from production” to support his stance. However, analysis shows very little farmland is required for the clean energy transition.

    What’s more, the cost of inaction is high. Climate change is disproportionately affecting cost of living for regional households – for example, due to higher insurance premiums.

    Joyce also appears deaf to the myriad regional voices calling for stronger climate action.

    The Mackay Conservation Group, for example, is challenging Whitehaven’s Winchester South coal mine in Queensland’s Land Court. Similarly, an environment group based in the NSW Hunter Valley this week successfully appealed the expansion of MACH Energy’s Mount Pleasant coal mine.

    Only facts can stop a new wave of climate wars

    Clearly, the efforts of Joyce and McCormack to undermine Australia’s net zero goal are not backed by evidence.

    The Coalition must heed the facts – not backbench pressure – as it weighs its climate and energy policy. Only then can Australia avoid reigniting the divisive climate wars that stalled progress and positioned Australia as a global laggard.

    Likewise, the Albanese government must not be distracted from the climate action task. Australia’s next round of climate targets should be based on the best available science, and make a meaningful, credible contribution to the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

    Ella Vines does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Barnaby Joyce wants Australia to abandon net zero – but his 4 central claims don’t stack up – https://theconversation.com/barnaby-joyce-wants-australia-to-abandon-net-zero-but-his-4-central-claims-dont-stack-up-261837

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: AI agents are here. Here’s what to know about what they can do – and how they can go wrong

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daswin de Silva, Professor of AI and Analytics, Director of AI Strategy, La Trobe University

    George Peters / Getty Images

    We are entering the third phase of generative AI. First came the chatbots, followed by the assistants. Now we are beginning to see agents: systems that aspire to greater autonomy and can work in “teams” or use tools to accomplish complex tasks.

    The latest hot product is OpenAI’s ChatGPT agent. This combines two pre-existing products (Operator and Deep Research) into a single more powerful system which, according to the developer, “thinks and acts”.

    These new systems represent a step up from earlier AI tools. Knowing how they work and what they can do – as well as their drawbacks and risks – is rapidly becoming essential.

    From chatbots to agents

    ChatGPT launched the chatbot era in November 2022, but despite its huge popularity the conversational interface limited what could be done with the technology.

    Enter the AI assistant, or copilot. These are systems built on top of the same large language models that power generative AI chatbots, only now designed to carry out tasks with human instruction and supervision.

    Agents are another step up. They are intended to pursue goals (rather than just complete tasks) with varying degrees of autonomy, supported by more advanced capabilities such as reasoning and memory.

    Multiple AI agent systems may be able to work together, communicating with each other to plan, schedule, decide and coordinate to solve complex problems.

    Agents are also “tool users” as they can also call on software tools for specialised tasks – things such as web browsers, spreadsheets, payment systems and more.

    A year of rapid development

    Agentic AI has felt imminent since late last year. A big moment came last October, when Anthropic gave its Claude chatbot the ability to interact with a computer in much the same way a human does. This system could search multiple data sources, find relevant information and submit online forms.

    Other AI developers were quick to follow. OpenAI released a web browsing agent named Operator, Microsoft announced Copilot agents, and we saw the launch of Google’s Vertex AI and Meta’s Llama agents.

    Earlier this year, the Chinese startup Monica demonstrated its Manus AI agent buying real estate and converting lecture recordings into summary notes. Another Chinese startup, Genspark, released a search engine agent that returns a single-page overview (similar to what Google does now) with embedded links to online tasks such as finding the best shopping deals. Another startup, Cluely, offers a somewhat unhinged “cheat at anything” agent that has gained attention but is yet to deliver meaningful results.

    Not all agents are made for general-purpose activity. Some are specialised for particular areas.

    Coding and software engineering are at the vanguard here, with Microsoft’s Copilot coding agent and OpenAI’s Codex among the frontrunners. These agents can independently write, evaluate and commit code, while also assessing human-written code for errors and performance lags.

    Search, summarisation and more

    One core strength of generative AI models is search and summarisation. Agents can use this to carry out research tasks that might take a human expert days to complete.

    OpenAI’s Deep Research tackles complex tasks using multi-step online research. Google’s AI “co-scientist” is a more sophisticated multi-agent system that aims to help scientists generate new ideas and research proposals.

    Agents can do more – and get more wrong

    Despite the hype, AI agents come loaded with caveats. Both Anthropic and OpenAI, for example, prescribe active human supervision to minimise errors and risks.

    OpenAI also says its ChatGPT agent is “high risk” due to potential for assisting in the creation of biological and chemical weapons. However, the company has not published the data behind this claim so it is difficult to judge.

    But the kind of risks agents may pose in real-world situations are shown by Anthropic’s Project Vend. Vend assigned an AI agent to run a staff vending machine as a small business – and the project disintegrated into hilarious yet shocking hallucinations and a fridge full of tungsten cubes instead of food.

    In another cautionary tale, a coding agent deleted a developer’s entire database, later saying it had “panicked”.

    Agents in the office

    Nevertheless, agents are already finding practical applications.

    In 2024, Telstra heavily deployed Microsoft copilot subscriptions. The company says AI-generated meeting summaries and content drafts save staff an average of 1–2 hours per week.

    Many large enterprises are pursuing similar strategies. Smaller companies too are experimenting with agents, such as Canberra-based construction firm Geocon’s use of an interactive AI agent to manage defects in its apartment developments.

    Human and other costs

    At present, the main risk from agents is technological displacement. As agents improve, they may replace human workers across many sectors and types of work. At the same time, agent use may also accelerate the decline of entry-level white-collar jobs.

    People who use AI agents are also at risk. They may rely too much on the AI, offloading important cognitive tasks. And without proper supervision and guardrails, hallucinations, cyberattacks and compounding errors can very quickly derail an agent from its task and goals into causing harm, loss and injury.

    The true costs are also unclear. All generative AI systems use a lot of energy, which will in turn affect the price of using agents – especially for more complex tasks.

    Learn about agents – and build your own

    Despite these ongoing concerns, we can expect AI agents will become more capable and more present in our workplaces and daily lives. It’s not a bad idea to start using (and perhaps building) agents yourself, and understanding their strengths, risks and limitations.

    For the average user, agents are most accessible through Microsoft copilot studio. This comes with inbuilt safeguards, governance and an agent store for common tasks.

    For the more ambitious, you can build your own AI agent with just five lines of code using the Langchain framework.

    Daswin de Silva does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI agents are here. Here’s what to know about what they can do – and how they can go wrong – https://theconversation.com/ai-agents-are-here-heres-what-to-know-about-what-they-can-do-and-how-they-can-go-wrong-261579

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The celebrity halo effect: why abuse allegations against powerful men like Brad Pitt are so easily forgotten

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jamilla Rosdahl, Senior Lecturer, Australian College of Applied Psychology

    Last month, actor Brad Pitt stepped onto the Formula One circuit as the leading man of the high-octane film F1, backed by Apple Studios, Jerry Bruckheimer Films and Pitt’s own Plan B Entertainment.

    During the publicity campaign, cameras followed Pitt at every twist and turn, beaming his heartthrob persona to audiences. The coverage was gushing, with few mentions of the 2016 allegations of physical and emotional abuse made by Angelina Jolie, the award-winning actor and Pitt’s former partner.

    Pitt was never charged over these allegations, but he was under considerable public scrutiny when they first came to light.

    The tone has since shifted. Now, many media outlets are focused on Pitt’s clothing, describing him as looking “effortlessly iconic” and someone who is “just trying to have fun with his style” – a seemingly polished return to the limelight.

    Pitt is far from an exception. He is part of a well-established pattern of powerful men in Hollywood who rebound from scandal quickly, and with seemingly little repercussion.

    Pitt’s career trajectory, bolstered by critical acclaim and PR campaigns, reveals how easily the public memory can be rewritten.

    How the media protects accused men

    One 2019 study that looked at coverage of rape allegations against Portuguese footballer Cristiano Ronaldo highlighted how the media helps construct narratives that favour the accused. The allegations came from American woman Kathryn Mayorga, who accused Ronaldo of raping her in 2009.

    The study found Portuguese media and political leaders largely defended Ronaldo, hailing him as a “national hero”. They focused on his career and presumption of innocence, while minimising and discrediting Mayorga’s account.

    When Mayorga reopened the case in 2018, alleging coercion into an earlier settlement, the coverage stereotyped her as a “gold digger”, diverting attention away from the issue of sexual violence. Reports also emphasised “collateral damages”, such as Ronaldo’s club avoiding matches in the United States.

    These findings underscore how the “celebrity halo” can compromise serious coverage of allegations.

    According to Karen Boyle, gender studies professor and author of the 2018 book #MeToo, Weinstein and Feminism, mainstream media and celebrity culture systemically protect powerful men accused of violence against women.

    Celebrity culture is fundamentally patriarchal, Boyle argues, and will centre men even when they’re found to be perpetrators. She writes:

    Even when these men fall, they fall spectacularly, with all eyes on them […] Their stories dominate.

    Instead of drawing attention to female survivors, media narratives orbit around the accused celebrity – including their downfall, legacy and potential redemption.

    The machinery of ‘redemption’

    The post-#MeToo era promised a reckoning. Survivors were to be heard, and powerful men held accountable. Yet the cultural reset hasn’t been what many supporters of the movement hoped for.

    Boyle argues we must understand #MeToo in relation to an ongoing history of popular misogyny which normalises men’s abuse of women.

    The #MeToo movement has faced mounting backlash since it went viral in 2017. Articles in Vox and Dame Magazine highlight how public sympathy is increasingly shifting towards accused men, recasting them as victims of “cancel culture” while sidelining survivors.

    Online platforms such as Instagram, Reddit and Youtbe have also created space for public commentators to blame victim-survivors and make excuses for famous male perpetrators.

    And it’s not just about attraction-leniency theory, wherein physically attractive people are judged more favourably. It’s also about race.

    One 2015 study found media coverage of intimate partner violence by celebrity men was more likely to be portrayed as “criminal” when the man was black.

    “Reports are more likely to include excuses for men’s violence against women when the coverage is of a white celebrity than when the celebrity is black,” said the author Joanna Pepin.

    White men in Hollywood accumulate prestige, status and connections that operate like currency, buffering them from consequences that would derail the careers of others.

    Ideology, power and coercive control

    As a scholar who had been analysing coercive control for more than ten years, I argue power operates not just through institutions, but through discourse: through who gets to speak, who is believed, what is remembered, and what is erased.

    Belief is often unconscious. The public may know violence occurred, but still act as though it didn’t. People choose to forget, to preserve the comforting fiction their favourite heartthrob is a good man.

    My research argues coercive control isn’t limited to perpetrators of domestic violence, but is a widespread tactic employed by high-profile men to assert power and dominance.

    It operates like a modern panopticon. Powerful men can use gendered power and social status to not only trap and discipline victims within an invisible prison, but can extend this control to entire communities.

    Importantly, this control can be subtle. It is often hidden behind performative niceness – hard to see and harder to prosecute.

    Shifting the lens

    Gender studies scholar Judith Butler argues Trump-era politics have actively distorted public conversations about gender, power and accountability. They explain in one interview:

    What we’re seeing with the Trump administration is a normalisation of hatred, of xenophobia, masculinity and misogyny that emboldens far-right groups and legitimises violence against vulnerable populations.

    Moving forward, we need to collectively recognise how media narratives can contribute to our collective amnesia of violence against women.

    We also need to prioritise teaching younger generations about masculine culture and the dangers of gendered violence. And when survivors speak, the focus shouldn’t be on whether they seem “credible” or “emotional enough”, but on the structures that may embolden the men they are accusing.

    Jamilla Rosdahl does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The celebrity halo effect: why abuse allegations against powerful men like Brad Pitt are so easily forgotten – https://theconversation.com/the-celebrity-halo-effect-why-abuse-allegations-against-powerful-men-like-brad-pitt-are-so-easily-forgotten-261101

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Want to save yourself from super scams and dodgy financial advice? Ask these questions

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Angelique Nadia Sweetman McInnes, Academic in Financial Planning, CQUniversity Australia

    Is there anything you can do to protect your superannuation from dodgy providers or questionable financial advice? And if someone rings you out of the blue and tempts you with a better return on your savings – what should you do?

    Around 12,000 Australians with A$1.2 billion in retirement savings have been caught up in three collapsed or frozen funds: First Guardian, Shield and Australian Fiduciaries.

    People have described being cold-called or seeing ads on social media, suggesting they could earn more by leaving their current super fund. Several financial advisers linked to these funds have now been banned for giving “inappropriate advice” to clients, containing “false and misleading statements”.

    As a former financial adviser and now researcher, here are the questions I wish more people asked to screen out scammers and dodgy financial advisers faster – and places to seek help if you need it.

    What do I do if someone calls with an unexpected sales pitch?

    The first thing you need to know is that in Australia we have anti-hawking legislation. This prohibits people making cold calls or unsolicited face-to-face approaches for financial products, such as superannuation.

    If you get a phone call like that, the official advice is now to hang up immediately. If they persist, you could say:

    I didn’t request this cold call. Did you know you’re breaking the law and I can report you?

    They will probably put the phone down! They know they’re not doing the right thing. If they keep talking, hang up.

    Block their number. Tell a family member if you need help. If you’ve shared personal information, call your super fund or bank.

    I’m thinking of switching super funds. What should I ask first?

    Whether you’re talking to a super fund or a financial adviser, my first three questions would be about their fees, what’s known as “the 4Ps” – philosophy, people, process and performance – and risk profile.

    What are the fees?

    Don’t just look at a super fund’s returns: look closely at their fees.

    Your super fund statement will disclose how much administration, insurance premiums, transactions, buy/sell spread and investment fees and costs are being deducted.

    High fees charged by a trustee eat up your super balance over time. If a fund earns 7% annually and charges fees of 0.63% annually, then your actual return is only 6.37%.

    Is the fund a good match on “the 4 Ps”?

    Go to the provider’s website to understand whether the fund’s philosophy reflect your core beliefs about investing and risk.

    Learn about the reputations of the people behind the fund who lead and invest your money.

    Find out what process they use to select and manage investments. Finally, consider how well and consistently the fund has performed over the past five to ten years.

    What’s the risk profile?

    Super funds classify investment options into risk profiles (such as conservative, balanced or growth) to provide you with investments to match your risk tolerance and age.

    You can find a fund’s risk profile on the fund’s website under investment options, in the product disclosure statement and target market determination.

    How can I compare my super fund?

    Want to check if your retirement savings are in an underperforming fund? For the past few years, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has called out MySuper funds that aren’t performing to standard.

    Compare funds with the Australian Tax Office’s YourSuper Comparison Tool.

    How I can find out if a financial adviser’s been in trouble?

    On advisers, you can investigate their reputation or past complaints at:

    If you’re comfortable using OpenAI, such as ChatGPT or CoPilot, you can try searching with the following prompts.

    • “Can you find any complaints or disciplinary actions against (name of adviser/fund)?”
    • “What is the public reputation of (adviser/fund) in financial forums or news?”
    • “Has (adviser/fund) been mentioned in any ASIC enforceable actions, bans or media reports?”

    More action promised, but not yet delivered

    There are echoes in what’s allegedly happened with First Guardian and Shield of Storm Financial’s collapse in 2009, which also hit thousands of people.

    There are bad apples in every industry. Whether it’s in finance or medicine, it’s often colleagues who know who the dodgy operators are. Then it’s a question of whether anyone does anything about it.

    In the case of First Guardian and Shield, other financial advisers helped raise the alarm – unfortunately several years before the corporate watchdog, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, acted.

    The commission says they’re now working with the federal government on more “reform options”. But that won’t help the thousands of people currently without access to their retirement savings, uncertain how much of those funds they’ll recover.

    You can seek free counselling and advice from the National Debt Helpline (1800 007 007); Mob Strong Debt Helpline (1800 808 488) for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people; or the Consumer Action Law Centre.

    Disclaimer: this is general information only and not to be taken as financial advice.

    Angelique Nadia Sweetman McInnes received funding from the Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand and Central Queensland University. She is presently on a panel in her academic capacity assisting the Financial Advice Association of Australia (FAAA) review and update their Professional Standards. She is also a council member of the FAAA Financial Planning Education Council. Angelique was an authorised representative (practicing financial adviser) from 2009 to 2012.

    – ref. Want to save yourself from super scams and dodgy financial advice? Ask these questions – https://theconversation.com/want-to-save-yourself-from-super-scams-and-dodgy-financial-advice-ask-these-questions-261756

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: As post-election talks drag on, what will Hobart’s proposed stadium actually cost Tasmanians?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Madden, Emeritus Professor, Centre of Policy Studies, Victoria University

    In the wake of last week’s Tasmanian election that delivered another hung parliament, the new government will need to shore up crossbench support. One of the issues to be negotiated will be support for the new stadium due to be constructed next to Hobart’s historic docks. It won’t be an easy task given the bulk of likely crossbenchers are strongly opposed.

    Whatever the political wrangling, it’s important this takes place in the light of the actual economics of the proposed stadium.

    Building the 23,000 seat stadium is a condition of the state’s licence for an AFL team.

    What the studies show

    Fortunately, there have been several studies of the proposed waterfront stadium that attempt to evaluate its net social and economic benefits to the Tasmanian community. While estimates vary between the studies, they all indicate the benefits from the stadium are likely to be substantially below its cost.

    The state government has downplayed the negative net-benefit estimates from these studies, citing positive impacts on the economy and employment. But the independent cost-benefit analysis undertaken by KPMG in 2024 already includes an assessment of the positive benefits for businesses and workers.

    The whole point of a social cost-benefit analysis is to evaluate the entire effects on the welfare of the population of its reference region (Tasmania).

    But does the cost-benefit analysis tell the whole story? In its consolidated report released last month, KPMG refers to unquantifiable intangible benefits not captured by its analysis.

    Some of the benefits are ‘intangible’

    On purely tangible economic criteria, as KPMG recognises, stadiums rarely have benefits that exceed costs. The justification for building stadiums is that the net economic cost is spent to acquire intangible benefits, such as national pride and social cohesion.

    But on my reading, KPMG has already included estimates for the main intangible benefits. Indeed, there is research suggesting one of the intangible benefits that KPMG includes – health benefits – is tenuous. It would seem unlikely there are other significant unaccounted intangible benefits from the stadium.

    In January, a further cost-benefit report was released. This report, by independent economist Nicholas Gruen, says KPMG overestimates benefits and underestimates costs.

    Gruen performs his own cost-benefit analysis and finds the benefits to Tasmanians are likely to be less than half of what it costs them.

    Beijing’s National Stadium, known as the Bird’s Nest, could provide a lesson for Hobart.
    Adek Berry/AFP via Getty Images

    There are reasons for paying attention to pessimistic findings. The University of Oxford’s Bent Flyvbjerg and his colleague, Dirk Bester, have recently highlighted the dangers of optimism bias in cost-benefit analyses of public projects. They find unambiguous statistical evidence that projections of costs and benefits are consistently inaccurate and biased towards overoptimism.

    If Gruen’s estimates are correct, the new stadium will come at a considerable cost to Tasmanians. There may be winners and losers. But Gruen’s results imply the Hobart stadium may come at a cost to the welfare of the average Tasmanian household of about A$3,300.

    Indeed, it may turn out to be more. Recently, there has been a $190 million, or almost 25%, increase in estimated construction costs. That takes the total to $945 million, up from the most recent estimate of $755 million. The original costing was $715 million.

    And it’s worse when viewed from a Tasmanian government perspective. That’s because the AFL, as is common with major sporting bodies, has ensured a contract in which all cost overruns are the responsibility of the state government.

    Overall, the state government has committed to contribute $375 million and will be responsible on current estimates to find a further $315 million. The federal government will contribute $240 million and the AFL just $15 million.

    Cost blowouts are very common

    My recent literature review shows venues built for mega sporting events under urgent timelines and rigid specifications tend to have particularly large cost overruns.

    While the budget for the Hobart stadium contains a significant amount for contingencies, cost overruns can be huge – for Olympic venues 172% on average. While the stadium is unlikely to see overruns of this magnitude, the downside risks imposed by current AFL requirement to build the stadium are considerable.

    Can Tasmania draw a lesson from the Beijing National (Bird’s Nest Stadium), built for the 2008 Olympics, where it was decided to save costs by abandoning the planned retractable roof?

    Gruen finds that not including the fixed, translucent roof would reduce the net social cost to Tasmanians by about 10%. And it would help lower risk exposure, and may substantially improve the aesthetics.

    Hobart winter nights are only about one degree colder than Melbourne, so the necessity for a roof for AFL games is questionable, and it poses problems for test cricket. Against this, not having a roof might make it a less appealing venue for concerts.

    Of course, not having a new stadium at all, but still having a Tasmanian AFL team, might represent the best outcome for the state. But standing up to the AFL comes at the risk of Tasmania not entering the AFL.

    In the case of mega events, the history of negotiations between sporting organisations and potential host cities, however, is that cities most unwilling to jeopardise their chances of selection, end up with the worst deal. Sports economists refer to this as the “winner’s curse”.

    John Madden does not receive income from any organisation that might benefit from this article. John has been a fan of Tasmanian sports teams since the 1950s.

    – ref. As post-election talks drag on, what will Hobart’s proposed stadium actually cost Tasmanians? – https://theconversation.com/as-post-election-talks-drag-on-what-will-hobarts-proposed-stadium-actually-cost-tasmanians-261666

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Barnaby Joyce wants Australia to abandon net zero – but his 5 central claims don’t stack up

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ella Vines, Post-doctoral researcher, Green Lab, Monash University

    One-time Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce sought to dominate the first sitting week of the current federal parliament by proposing a divisive plan to reverse Australia’s net zero emissions target.

    The campaign, backed by fellow former Nationals leader Michael McCormack, aims to repeal what Joyce calls Australia’s “lunatic crusade” of net zero by 2050. It comes as Opposition Leader Sussan Ley convenes a working group to set a way forward on climate and energy policy following the Coalition’s historic election defeat.

    Meanwhile, the Albanese government is considering Australia’s next round of emissions reduction targets. And scientists warn just three years remain for the world to keep global warming below the vital 1.5°C threshold.

    If Australia is to take meaningful climate action, federal parliament must engage with the facts honestly and without distortion. So let’s take a closer look at whether Joyce and McCormack’s latest claims withstand scrutiny.

    Claim 1: Australia’s net zero policy will not address climate change

    Joyce describes as “perverse” the notion that Australia’s net zero goal can meaningfully help address global climate change.

    This claim is not backed by science.

    Every tonne of greenhouse gas emissions adds to global warming. What’s more, Joyce’s claim ignores the near-universal agreement of nations signed up to the Paris Agreement – including Australia – to pursue efforts (including domestic measures) to limit the average global temperature rise to 1.5°C.

    It’s true that collective national efforts to curb warming have so far been insufficient. But that doesn’t mean they should be abandoned.

    Claim 2: Global support for net zero is waning

    McCormack claims there is a growing global shift against net zero, and Joyce describes it as “a peculiar minority position”.

    This statement is not backed by evidence.

    In fact, the number of countries, cities, businesses and other institutions pledging to get to net-zero is growing.

    In the United States, President Donald Trump has dismantled climate policy, damaging that nation’s progress towards net zero. But many US states have retained the target, and global climate action will continue regardless of Trump’s actions.

    A landmark court ruling this week is likely to further strengthen global pressure for nations to ramp up emissions reduction. The advisory opinion by the International Court of Justice observed countries are legally obliged to prevent harms caused by climate change – including by regulating the fossil fuel industry.

    As others have noted, Australia must now reconsider its stance on approving new fossil fuel projects – including those geared to export markets.

    the International Court of Justice said countries are legally obliged to prevent harms caused by climate change.
    JOHN THYS/AFP via Getty Images

    Claims 3: the net zero goal is a security threat

    Joyce claims a net zero policy agenda is “treacherous” for Australia’s security and will “inflame our incapacity” to contend with geopolitical threats.

    But evidence suggests the opposite is true. There is a significant link between climate change and certain types of military conflicts.

    Research predicts the Australian Defence Force will become involved in more wars as the climate crisis escalates, and respond to more frequent climate-related disasters inside our borders.

    Claim 4: net zero is bad for regional Australia

    Both Joyce and McCormack say the net zero target and associated renewable energy rollout is devastating regional Australia. The Institute of Public Affairs, a prominent right-wing think tank, this week launched a documentary making similar claims.

    Joyce cited division in rural communities over renewable energy. In reality, there is significant support in regional Australia for such technology. A poll last year by Farmers for Climate Action found 70% of regional Australians in renewable energy zones support the development of renewable energy projects on local farmland.

    Joyce also pointed to “the removal of agricultural land from production” to support his stance. However, analysis shows very little farmland is required for the clean energy transition.

    What’s more, the cost of inaction is high. Climate change is disproportionately affecting cost of living for regional households – for example, due to higher insurance premiums.

    Joyce also appears deaf to the myriad regional voices calling for stronger climate action.

    The Mackay Conservation Group, for example, is challenging Whitehaven’s Winchester South coal mine in Queensland’s Land Court. Similarly, an environment group based in the NSW Hunter Valley this week successfully appealed the expansion of MACH Energy’s Mount Pleasant coal mine.

    Only facts can stop a new wave of climate wars

    Clearly, the efforts of Joyce and McCormack to undermine Australia’s net zero goal are not backed by evidence.

    The Coalition must heed the facts – not backbench pressure – as it weighs its climate and energy policy. Only then can Australia avoid reigniting the divisive climate wars that stalled progress and positioned Australia as a global laggard.

    Likewise, the Albanese government must not be distracted from the climate action task. Australia’s next round of climate targets should be based on the best available science, and make a meaningful, credible contribution to the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

    Ella Vines does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Barnaby Joyce wants Australia to abandon net zero – but his 5 central claims don’t stack up – https://theconversation.com/barnaby-joyce-wants-australia-to-abandon-net-zero-but-his-5-central-claims-dont-stack-up-261837

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Critics claim gender clinics are seeing an excess of trans boys. But new data suggest otherwise

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ken Pang, Senior Principal Research Fellow and Group Leader, Transgender Health Research Group, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute

    Gender clinics provide multidisciplinary care that helps trans people to explore and affirm their gender identity.

    The number of adolescents referred to gender clinics has increased worldwide in recent years, especially among those who were assigned female at birth.

    This has prompted claims that “social contagion” is driving young people – and in particular, teenagers who were assigned female at birth – to identify as trans and seek medical care.

    But this notion isn’t supported by robust evidence, and our latest research directly challenges this idea.

    Backlash against gender care

    Despite its lack of evidence, the social contagion theory has been used by critics to help fuel an international backlash against adolescent gender care.

    In the United States, more than half of all states have enacted laws or policies limiting access to gender care for those under 18 years.

    In the United Kingdom, laws now prohibit transgender young people under 18 from starting puberty blockers.

    Evidence has now emerged of the adverse consequences of these laws in both the US and UK. This includes sharp declines in mental health and increased suicide attempts among transgender young people.

    Despite this evidence, the Queensland government in Australia recently halted access to puberty blockers and gender-affirming hormones to new patients aged under 18.

    This decision was made even though a 2024 independent evaluation found that gender care in Queensland is safe and evidence-based and recommended that service capacity be increased.

    Trans people seek gender care at different stages of their lives

    Our recently published study examined gender clinic referrals across the entire lifespan.

    We used data from publicly funded gender clinics in Melbourne and Amsterdam across a three-year period between 2016 and 2019. The Amsterdam and Melbourne services received 2,044 and 1,903 referrals respectively.

    We found remarkably similar results in both countries. The majority of adolescent referrals (around 70%) were for trans boys and non-binary people assigned female at birth. However, among adults, this observation was flipped, with the majority of adult referrals being for individuals assigned male at birth.

    Specifically, 55% of referrals of those aged in their 20s were for individuals assigned male at birth. This grew every subsequent decade, reaching around 80% for those in their 50s and beyond.

    What do these findings mean?

    Previous surveys from Sweden, Belgium and the United States indicate the proportion of people assigned male and female at birth who are transgender is roughly equal.

    Assuming these two groups share a similar desire to access gender clinics, you would expect the number of referrals to be around the same over the course of a lifetime.

    Our new findings are consistent with this expectation but the likelihood of referral to gender clinics seems to be influenced by both the sex a person was assigned at birth, as well as their age. While those assigned female at birth are more likely seek referral as adolescents, those assigned male “catch up” in later years.

    So rather than an over-representation of those assigned female at birth, adolescent referral patterns most likely reflect an under-representation of assigned males.

    Why is this happening?

    Trans misogyny is a unique type of discrimination trans girls and women face. It combines transphobia, the hatred for and discrimination against trans people, with misogyny, the prejudice and contempt towards women.

    The impact of trans misogyny is far-reaching. During adolescence, trans girls experience higher rates of bullying and victimisation than trans boys and cisgender peers.

    During adulthood, trans women remain at high risk of abuse and violence. They are also more likely to encounter housing discrimination, homelessness, unemployment and poverty than the general population.

    Faced with such daunting prospects, it seems much harder for trans girls to reveal their gender identity as adolescents at an already uncertain time of their lives.

    But as trans girls progress into adulthood, we suspect an intrinsic desire to express their gendered sense of self eventually tips the balance in favour of “coming out”. As a result, we see more trans women seeking gender care in their 20s, 30s and beyond.

    These new findings suggest we need to do more to support trans adolescents. Rather than being driven by the fear of “social contagion”, we must instead recognise and address the challenges trans adolescents, and specifically trans girls and women, face.

    This article was co-authored by Freya Kahn, a paediatrician working on research projects at the Royal Children’s Hospital.

    Ken Pang receives research funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council and the Medical Research Future Fund. He is a member of the Australian Professional Association for Trans Health, the World Professional Association for Transgender Health, and the editorial board of the journal, Transgender Health.

    Anja Ravine has paid membership of the Australian Professional Association for Trans Health.

    – ref. Critics claim gender clinics are seeing an excess of trans boys. But new data suggest otherwise – https://theconversation.com/critics-claim-gender-clinics-are-seeing-an-excess-of-trans-boys-but-new-data-suggest-otherwise-257817

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The ghost of Robodebt – Federal Court rules billions of dollars in welfare debts must be recalculated

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Rudge, Law lecturer, University of Sydney

    A recent landmark court decision could have significant ramifications for several million social security recipients.

    The ruling means the federal government will need to recalculate more than A$4 billion in debts owed to the Department of Social Services, which administers Centrelink.

    Some of the debts – which occurred due to overpayment of benefits – stretch back decades.

    Reminiscent of Robodebt, the problem occurred because an unlawful method – income apportionment – was used to calculate the money Centrelink claimed it was owed.

    The judgement

    From the early 1990s until 2020, more than 5.3 million welfare debts were calculated using income apportionment.

    In the test case Chaplin v Secretary, Department of Social Services, the full Federal Court approved a method proposed by the government to recalculate the debts.

    The court was not asked whether the debts were unlawful – a point the department had already conceded – but whether its remedy was legally sound. In a two-judge majority, the court ruled it generally was.

    Following the judgement, the department swiftly resumed debt recovery, which had been paused in 2023, pending the legal decision. It said in a statement:

    now there is certainty to the legal position, assessments will recommence in line with the court’s decision.

    The scale of the problem

    The unlawful debts are worth $4.31 billion in total, and affect almost three million Australians. About 91% of these debts – $3.93 billion – has already been repaid to Centrelink.

    Another 170,000 debts – totalling $347 million – remain outstanding.

    All the debts – either repaid or still owing – must be recalculated using the revised method approved by the court.

    According to the government, the median debt is $330 and has been owed for 19 years, on average.

    But the judgement does not compel the government to actually recover the money. Some media reports suggest a waiver is being considered.

    For its part, the government says it will “evaluate” the court decision and develop a “suitable response”.

    What is income apportionment?

    An internal anti-fraud policy meant Centrelink was obliged to calculate a person’s income when it was “earned” rather than “received”.

    This led to the use of income apportionment – essentially an educated guess about a person’s fortnightly earnings when their pay cycle didn’t align with their income reporting period.

    This process, which typically produced overpayments to recipients, spread income outside an instalment period, which was contrary to the applicable law. It also attributed earnings to a person for days and fortnights they hadn’t worked.

    Income apportionment was discontinued in 2020. Three years later, the Commonwealth ombudsman found the method was unlawful.

    Is this different to Robodebt?

    While Social Services has sought to distinguish income apportionment from Robodebt, the two methods of calculating debt are comparable.

    Both attributed a person’s daily income beyond the timeframe permitted by law.

    But there are differences in source and scale.

    Where apportionment was personalised by using individual customer payslips, Robodebt used Australian Tax Office records to raise debts en masse.

    Significantly, while the ombudsman said the department’s understanding of the law relating to apportionment was “incorrect”, it was also “genuinely held”.

    On the other hand, the infamous Robodebt scheme was designed to ramp up debt clawbacks. Claims of misfeasance in public office continue to be litigated.

    Other troubling overlaps remain.

    Many individuals affected by apportionment debts raised after 2015 will be the same people served with Robodebt notices.

    Evidentiary burden

    A troubling aspect of the test case was the suggestion by the majority judges – citing High Court precedent –
    that the evidentiary burden could shift to the welfare recipient when overpayments are believed to occur through “wrongdoing”.

    This could force an individual to disprove their alleged debt if a decision-maker concluded the recipient had accidentally under-reported – as occurred in the test case – and a lack of evidence made it difficult for the government to prove its allegation.

    The finding arguably runs counter to the Robodebt Royal Commission’s observation that most welfare recipients lack the power to disprove a debt because their historical records are unavailable.

    The dissenting judge in the case rejected the government’s proposed recalculation method, finding it “not proper” for recovery action to be taken without probative evidence.

    He said the majority decision meant Centrelink could reassess debts in the future after evidence had been lost, and recipients would be powerless to disprove them.

    Expensive fix

    The administrative burden of reassessing these unlawful debts is immense.

    Late last year, a team of 150 public servants, each costing $117,400 per annum, was assigned to rectify income apportionment.

    Their internal sampling revealed 64% of people issued debt bills were overcharged, 29% were undercharged, while 4% are owed a total refund.

    The remediation process has been chaotic.

    In the year following the ombudsman’s report, recipients lodged 531 appeals and made 530 complaints, highlighting the human impact of income apportionment.

    But in a five-month period, a mere 83 cases have been finalised.

    Controversially, Social Services offered to process debts on request, contrary to a provisional finding of the Administrative Appeals Tribunal, which dismissed the method being used by the department.

    Political choice

    While the Federal Court has seemingly given the government a legal victory, the ultimate outcome will be costly – especially if the debts are waived.

    The court ruling requires recipients be afforded “procedural fairness”, meaning resource-intensive investigations will need to be undertaken into the millions of cases yet to be reviewed.

    The final price tag is yet unknown. In the 2025–26 budget, income apportionment was recorded as a “contingent liability – unquantifiable”.

    Almost all of the outstanding debts would have already been resolved if the government had implemented the Robodebt Royal Commission recommendation that welfare overpayments should not be pursued if they are more than six years old.

    The court’s decision also fails to address the 159 Australians believed to have been criminally prosecuted over unlawful debts since 2018. These people – and likely many more before that year – may have been convicted on defective evidence.

    The response to these issues will be a test for the government.

    Has it learned the lessons of previous egregious mistakes, or will it allow the ghost of Robodebt to continue to haunt our welfare system?

    Christopher Rudge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The ghost of Robodebt – Federal Court rules billions of dollars in welfare debts must be recalculated – https://theconversation.com/the-ghost-of-robodebt-federal-court-rules-billions-of-dollars-in-welfare-debts-must-be-recalculated-261543

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Donald Trump cannot make the Epstein files go away. Will this be the story that brings him down?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Emma Shortis, Adjunct Senior Fellow, School of Global, Urban and Social Studies, RMIT University

    Conspiracy theories are funny things.

    The most enduring ones usually take hold for two reasons: first, because there’s some grain of truth to them, and second, because they speak to foundational historical divisions.

    The theories morph and change, distorting the grain of truth at their centre beyond reality. In the process, they reinforce and deepen existing divisions, encouraging hateful blindness.

    US President Donald Trump is perhaps the most successful conspiracy trafficker in modern American history.

    Trump built his political career by trading on conspiracy. These have included a combination of racist birther conspiracies about former president Barack Obama, nebulous ideas about the “Deep State” that conspired against the interests of regular Americans, and nods to a more recent online universe centered on QAnon that alleged a Satanist ring of “elite” pedophiles involving Hillary Clinton was trafficking children.

    These theories all had their own grain of truth and tapped into deep-seated historical fears. For example, Obama does have Kenyan heritage, and his Blackness threatened many white Americans’ sense of their own power.

    Revelations about disgraced financier Jeffery Epstein’s trafficking in children and the way in which that implicated the “elite” of New York seemed to confirm at least parts of the final theory. It tapped into the belief – one that does have some basis in reality – that America’s elite play by rules of their own, above justice and accountability.

    In the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election, Trump increasingly engaged with this online universe. He seemed to quietly enjoy suggestions that he might be “Q” – the anonymous leader who, according to the theory, was going to break the paedophile ring wide open in a “day of reckoning”.

    Many of Trump’s perennially online supporters based their championing of him around these conspiracy theories. QAnon believers were among those who stormed the Capitol on January 6 2021. A core section of Trump’s base continues to believe his promises that he would at last reveal the truth – about John F. Kennedy’s assassination, the Deep State, and Epstein.

    That it has long been public knowledge that Trump and Epstein had a longstanding friendship did not impinge on these beliefs.

    Conspiracy theories have swirled around Epstein since at least his first arrest nearly two decades ago, in 2006. After allegations of unlawful sex with a minor, Epstein was charged with soliciting prostitution. This elicited suggestions he was receiving special treatment because of his elite status as a New York financier and philanthropist.

    That pattern continued over the next decade as accusations multiplied, culminating in his arrest in 2019 on federal charges of sex trafficking, including to a private island. The allegations touched the global elite, including former president Bill Clinton, the United Kingdom’s Prince Andrew, and Trump. In August 2019, Epstein was found dead in his cell, allegedly by suicide – adding further fuel to the already intense conspiracy fire.

    Epstein’s arrest and death occurred during the first Trump administration. Since then, there has been a steady trickle of accusations and revelations that have increased pressure on the administration to declassify and release material relating to the case. Many of Trump’s most loyal supporters, including a set of influential podcasters and influencers, have built their audiences around Epstein and the insistence that the truth be revealed.

    Early in the life of the current administration, Attorney-General Pam Bondi – whom Trump is wont to treat as his personal lawyer – said she was reviewing the Epstein “client list”.

    In the past few weeks, however, the administration has indicated it will not release the list or other materials relating to the case. At the same time, more information about Trump’s relationship with Epstein has trickled out, including more photos of the two together. It’s hard to deny the sense there is more to come.

    Trump’s posting about the issue, despite his apparent wish to divert from it, seems only to compel more interest. Sections of his online conspiracy base, including vocal supporters such as Tucker Carlson, are outraged at what they see as a betrayal. Reports suggest a significant rift developing between Trump and key backer Rupert Murdoch over the issue. Democrats, rightly, sense weakness.



    Read more:
    Could Rupert Murdoch bring down Donald Trump? A court case threatens more than just their relationship

    Loyal Republicans seem rattled enough that Speaker of the House Mike Johnson called an early summer recess, sending congresspeople home in an apparent effort to avoid any forced vote on the issue.

    The obvious inference – though it is inference only – is that Trump and Republicans are so worried about what is in the Epstein material they would rather cop strong backlash from the base, looking scared and weak, than release the information. If nothing else, that is a guaranteed way to fuel an already raging fire.

    Trump’s tanking approval rating and the salience of this issue lead to an obvious question: is this going to be the thing that finally scratches the Teflon president? Will his base turn on him at last?

    If history is anything to go by, that seems unlikely. Trump is remarkably resilient, using crises like this to consolidate his power. Trump commands loyalty, and he has it from Bondi, Johnson and others in this weakened and increasingly ideologically driven federal government. And his conspiracy-fuelled base is in so deep that turning on the president now is not just a question of admitting error, but one of core identity.

    US mainstream media has long pursued a “gotcha” approach to Trump, driven by a model of journalism that still seeks out smoking guns and dreams of Watergate. Not unlike the conspiracy theories it reports on, this framing hopes for a neat, clear resolution to the story of US politics. But politics doesn’t work like that – especially not for Trump.

    From the outside, Trump’s attempts to pivot on the issue and build on his existing conspiracies around Obama and Hillary Clinton might look feeble, but they are tried and true. Trump is now focused on fanning theories around Obama and Clinton, broadening them to include accusations of “treason”. Trump’s Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard went so far as to claim Obama had “manufactured […] a years-long coup against President Trump”. Even reporting on these claims with rightful incredulity adds fuel to the raging fire.

    In the personality cult of an authoritarian leader, conspiracy is easily weaponised against enemies, perceived and real. In the febrile environment of US politics, these conspiracy theories tap into and encourage a long vein of white supremacy and racial revanchism that has shaped American politics since even before the nation’s founding.

    Trump can morph and change conspiracy theories like no one else, building on fears and deepening existing divisions. He understands the power of pointing to “enemies from within”, and just how well that reinforces the narrative he has already so successfully ingrained in US political culture. We underestimate him, and the power of conspiracy theory, at our peril.

    Emma Shortis is Director of International and Security Affairs at The Australia Institute, an independent think tank.

    – ref. Donald Trump cannot make the Epstein files go away. Will this be the story that brings him down? – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-cannot-make-the-epstein-files-go-away-will-this-be-the-story-that-brings-him-down-261843

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ceasefire talks collapse – what does that mean for the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Mamouri, Research Fellow, Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    Efforts to end the relentless siege of Gaza have been set back by the abrupt end to peace talks in Qatar.

    Both the United States and Israel have withdrawn their negotiating teams, accusing Hamas of a “lack of desire to reach a ceasefire”.

    US President Donald Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff says it would appear Hamas never wanted a deal:

    While the mediators have made a great effort, Hamas does not appear to be coordinated or acting in good faith. We will now consider alternative options to bring the hostages home and try to create a more stable environment for the people in Gaza

    State Department spokesman Tommy Piggott reads Steve Witkoff’s statement on the collapse of the Gaza peace talks.

    The disappointing development coincides with mounting fears of a widespread famine in Gaza and a historic decision by France to formally recognise a Palestinian state.

    French President Emmanuel Macron says there is no alternative for the sake of security of the Middle East:

    True to its historic commitment to a just and lasting peace in the Middle East, I have decided that France will recognise the State of Palestine

    What will these developments mean for the conflict in Gaza and the broader security of the Middle East?

    ‘Humanitarian catastrophe’

    The failure to reach a truce means there is no end in sight to the Israeli siege of Gaza which has devastated the territory for more than 21 months.

    Amid mounting fears of mass starvation, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese says Gaza is in the grip of a “humanitarian catastrophe”. He is urging Israel to comply immediately with its obligations under international law:

    Israel’s denial of aid and the killing of civilians, including children, seeking access to water and food cannot be defended or ignored.

    According to the United Nations Palestinian refugee agency UNRWA, more than 100 people – most of them children – have died of hunger. One in five children in Gaza City is malnourished, with the number of cases rising every day.

    Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini says with little food aid entering Gaza, people are

    neither dead nor alive, they are walking corpses […] most children our teams are seeing are emaciated, weak and at high risk of dying if they don’t get the treatment they urgently need.

    The UN and more than 100 aid groups blame Israel’s blockade of almost all aid into the territory for the lack of food.

    Lazzarini says UNRWA has 6,000 trucks of emergency supplies waiting in Jordan and Egypt. He is urging Israel – which continues to blame Hamas for cases of malnutrition – to allow the humanitarian assistance into Gaza.

    Proposed ceasefire deal

    The latest ceasefire proposal was reportedly close to being agreed by both parties.

    It included a 60-day truce, during which time Hamas would release ten living Israeli hostages and the remains of 18 others. In exchange, Israel would release a number of Palestinian prisoners, and humanitarian aid to Gaza would be significantly increased.

    During the ceasefire, both sides would engage in negotiations toward a lasting truce.

    While specific details of the current sticking points remain unclear, previous statements from both parties suggest the disagreement centres on what would follow any temporary ceasefire.

    Israel is reportedly seeking to maintain a permanent military presence in Gaza to allow for a rapid resumption of operations if needed. In contrast, Hamas is demanding a pathway toward a complete end to hostilities.

    A lack of mutual trust has dramatically clouded the negotiations.

    From Israel’s perspective, any ceasefire must not result in Hamas regaining control of Gaza, as this would allow the group to rebuild its power and potentially launch another cross-border attack.

    However, Hamas has repeatedly said it is willing to hand over power to any other Palestinian group in pursuit of a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders. This could include the Palestinian National Authority (PNA), which governs the West Bank and has long recognised Israel.

    Support for a Palestinian state

    Israeli leaders have occasionally paid lip service to a Palestinian state. But they have described such an entity as “less than a state” or a “state-minus” – a formulation that falls short of both Palestinian aspirations and international legal standards.

    In response to the worsening humanitarian situation, some Western countries have moved to fully recognise a Palestinian state, viewing it as a step toward a permanent resolution of one of the longest-running conflicts in the Middle East.

    Macron’s announcement France will officially recognise a full Palestinian state in September is a major development.

    France is now the most prominent Western power to take this position. It follows more than 140 countries – including more than a dozen in Europe – that have already recognised statehood.

    While largely symbolic, the move adds diplomatic pressure on Israel amid the ongoing war and aid crisis in Gaza.

    However, the announcement was immediately condemned by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who claimed recognition “rewards terror” and

    risks creating another Iranian proxy, just as Gaza became. A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel – not to live in peace beside it.

    Annexing Gaza?

    A Palestinian state is unacceptable to Israel.

    Further evidence was recently presented in a revealing TV interview by former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak who stated Netanyahu had deliberately empowered Hamas in order to block a two-state solution.

    Instead there is mounting evidence Israel is seeking to annex the entirety of Palestinian land and relocate Palestinians to neighbouring countries.

    Given the current uncertainty, it appears unlikely a new ceasefire will be reached in the near future, especially as it remains unclear whether the US withdrawal from the negotiations was a genuine policy shift or merely a strategic negotiating tactic.

    Ali Mamouri does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ceasefire talks collapse – what does that mean for the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza? – https://theconversation.com/ceasefire-talks-collapse-what-does-that-mean-for-the-humanitarian-catastrophe-in-gaza-261942

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: As oceans warm, tropical fish are moving south. New friendships may be helping them survive

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Angus Mitchell, Postdoctoral Researcher in Marine Ecology, University of Adelaide

    Angus Mitchell

    When you think about climate change in our oceans, you may picture coral bleaching, melting sea ice, or extreme weather events. But beneath the ocean’s surface, another quiet shift is underway. Australia’s tropical fish are heading south into cooler waters.

    These fish are not just visiting. They are settling into the milder “temperate” reefs that used to be too cold for them. As they do, they encounter new environments, new challenges and new neighbours.

    In our new research we studied the behaviour of these new migrants. We found some tropical fish are not just surviving in their new homes, they’re thriving. And, surprisingly, much of that success comes down to who they’re hanging out with.

    A slow-motion invasion

    Tropical fish travel poleward via ocean currents.

    On Australia’s east coast, the fish typically hitch a ride on the strengthening East Australian Current as it pushes warm water and the tropical species further south.

    Some species are showing up hundreds of kilometres beyond their usual home range. Many tropical fish arrive on temperate reefs during summer, and used to die over winter when the water grew colder. Now, as winter water temperatures increase, some tropical fish survive year-round in temperate reefs.

    But life at the edge of your range is risky. These fish encounter colder water temperatures, unfamiliar predators and a reef full of competitors. So, how do they cope?

    As waters warm, temperate reefs of kelp and seaweed are becoming home to tropical fish as they venture southward.
    Angus Mitchell

    Risky business: but some fish can adapt

    We studied five tropical fish species and two temperate species across a 2,000km stretch of Australia’s east coast, from the tropics to the cold temperate south. We observed how these fish fed, sheltered and reacted to threats, using underwater video cameras.

    Analysis of the footage revealed tropical fish behaved differently in the colder waters. They spent more time hiding and less time feeding. They were also more wary of predators, displaying a cognitive shift in “lateralisation” — a preference to consistently turn left or right, which can help fish make faster escape decisions when threatened.

    Such risk-averse behaviour is likely to help fish stay alive in unfamiliar reefs by avoiding predators. But it also reduces food intake and growth, unless these fish find new friends.

    New school mates, better outcomes

    Previous research has shown when tropical fish gather or “shoal” with temperate fish, they grow bigger and survive longer into winter than fish in tropical-only shoals.

    We wanted to understand the mechanism for this phenomenon. Could tropical fish be learning from temperate shoal mates? And how might their behaviour change when shoaling with temperate fishes?

    Using underwater videos, we found three tropical damselfish species spent more time feeding and less time sheltering when they formed mixed shoals with temperate fish. They also appeared bolder and were more successful at finding food.

    We think these mixed shoals offer key advantages: safety in numbers, more eyes watching for predators, and perhaps most importantly, social learning. By shoaling with local temperate species such as the Australian Mado, tropical fish may learn where and when it’s safe to feed, and how to behave in these foreign temperate ecosystems.

    This kind of behavioural “plasticity” is a powerful tool in a changing climate. Fish that can adjust their behaviours in ways that boost their fitness are more likely to survive as climatic conditions rapidly shift in our oceans.

    Tropical and temperate fish species form a mixed-species group or shoal at Little Manly in southeastern Australia.
    Angus Mitchell

    Not all fish benefit

    These interactions were not always beneficial. Two herbivorous tropical fish species, the convict tang and brown tang, did not show the same benefits, likely because their specialised diets made it harder to learn from omnivorous temperate species.

    And for the temperate fish, the presence of tropical fish in shoals were often problematic. At the northern, warmer edge of their range, temperate fish fled more often and fed less when tropical fish were present. That’s worrying, because warming alone is already pushing many temperate species toward their biological limits. Adding new competitors might push them over the edge.

    Herbivorous convict tangs (Acanthurus triostegus) shoal tightly near shelter on a temperate oyster reef. At the edge of their range, these tropical fish adopt more cautious behaviours, seeking refuge and foraging less.
    Angus Mitchell

    A changing reef community

    All this comes amid dire news of the Earth’s oceans. Research published today shows 2023 set new records for the duration, extent and intensity of marine heatwaves.

    Fish migration to temperate reefs is a glimpse of the future: even warmer waters, shifting species ranges and new species interactions.

    Our results suggest these new species interactions and relationships, particularly mixed-species shoaling, can help tropical fish survive longer in temperate ecosystems. But they may also disrupt existing ecosystems and place extra stress on local temperate species.

    In this way, climate-driven range shifts are more than just a temperature driven story. They’re stories about behaviour, relationships, and resilience.

    Understanding how fish respond to their new neighbours and how those responses shape who stays and who goes, will be key to managing reefs in a rapidly warming ocean.

    Ivan Nagelkerken receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC).

    Angus Mitchell and Chloe Hayes do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As oceans warm, tropical fish are moving south. New friendships may be helping them survive – https://theconversation.com/as-oceans-warm-tropical-fish-are-moving-south-new-friendships-may-be-helping-them-survive-258405

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is chikungunya virus, and should we be worried about it in Australia?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jacqueline Stephens, Associate Professor in Public Health, Flinders University

    Noppharat05081977/Getty Images

    This week, the World Health Organization (WHO) raised concerns about a surge in the number of cases of a mosquito-borne viral infection called chikungunya.

    Diana Rojas Alvarez, a medical officer at the WHO, highlighted an outbreak occurring across La Réunion and Mayotte. These small islands in the Indian Ocean were previously hit during an epidemic of the virus in 2004–05.

    Between August 2024 and May 2025, more than 47,500 confirmed cases and 12 deaths from chikungunya were reported in La Réunion. Some 116 cases were reported in Mayotte between March and May this year.

    But more than 100 countries have seen local transmission of this virus to date, and the WHO has also flagged recent cases in Africa, Asia and Europe.

    So, what is chikungunya, how does it spread, and should we be worried here in Australia?

    What are the symptoms?

    The main symptoms of chikungunya include fever, joint pain and joint swelling. However, other symptoms may include headache, rash, muscle pain, nausea and tiredness. On rare occasions, chikungunya can be fatal.

    Some people are more prone to having worse symptoms, including infants, older adults, and people with pre-existing medical conditions.

    Symptoms can take up to 12 days to appear, but most people start to experience symptoms three to seven days after being bitten by an infected mosquito.

    There’s no specific treatment for chikungunya other than managing the pain with medications, such as paracetamol.

    Most people recover after a few weeks, but some people can experience ongoing tiredness and joint pains for many months, or even years.

    How does it spread?

    Infected female mosquitoes spread chikungunya. The mosquitoes become infected when they feed on a person carrying the virus in their blood. Once infected, the virus reproduces in the mosquito, and then they can transmit it to other people when the mosquitoes bite them.

    There are more than 3,000 different types of mosquitoes on Earth, but only two are commonly involved in transmitting chikungunya: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.

    A. aegypti and A. albopictus look similar and can be easily confused. Both are about 4–7 millimetres in size and have similar black and white markings on their thorax and legs.

    Both are day-time biters, unlike other mosquitoes that typically bite at dawn or dusk. They’re known as “ankle biters” because they mainly bite exposed legs and ankles. These aggressive mosquitoes bite multiple times and are known to follow people indoors to get their meal of human blood.

    These species also transmit dengue virus, yellow fever virus and Zika virus.

    Where does chikungunya occur?

    Chikungunya was first documented in Tanzania in 1952. While outbreaks initially occurred across Africa and Asia, over time the virus has spread around the world. As of December 2024, local transmission of chikungunya had been reported in 119 countries and territories.

    The 2004–05 epidemic was the largest so far, with hundreds of thousands of people infected. The epidemic started in the Indian Ocean islands, but eventually spread across to India. Since then, outbreaks have become more frequent and widespread.

    A key contributor to the proliferation of chikungunya is climate change. Warmer temperatures, altered rainfall patterns, and increased humidity are creating ideal conditions for mosquito breeding. This allows the mosquitoes to adapt to new environments and therefore expand into new habitats.

    The increase is also partly because chikungunya has evolved and been introduced into new populations, whose immune systems have not previously been exposed to the virus.

    So, should we be worried?

    While evidence suggests A. aegypti has been present in northern Queensland since the 1800s (outbreaks of dengue occurred in Townsville in 1879 and Rockhampton in 1885), A. albopictus is a more recent arrival, first documented in the Torres Strait in 2005.

    A. aegypti mosquitoes are now found in areas across north, central and southern Queensland, while A. albopictus is currently still only found in the Torres Strait.

    Nonetheless, to date, there have been no recorded cases of chikungunya transmission within Australia.

    But cases do occur in people who have recently travelled overseas, most often to South and Southeast Asia, or the Pacific Islands.

    In 2023 there were 42 cases of chikungunya recorded in Australia, 70 in 2024, and 90 so far in 2025. Previous years have seen figures above 100, however numbers in recent years may have been lower due to COVID impacting travel.

    As climate change continues to support the spread of A. aegypti and A. albopictus, the risk of transmission within Australia increases.

    That said, there is some evidence we might be lucky in Australia, with potential immune protection from a related local virus, Ross River virus.

    I’m travelling, what should I do?

    Two vaccines are approved for use in the United States against chikungunya, but there’s currently no vaccine approved in Australia. The only way to reduce your risk of infection is to avoid being bitten by mosquitoes.

    People travelling to places where chikungunya is known to occur should wear loose-fitting and light-coloured clothing with enclosed shoes, use insect repellent, close windows and consider using mosquito bed nets. Taking these steps also reduces the risk of other mosquito-borne infections, such as dengue fever.

    If you travel to a place where chikungunya occurs and you get bitten by mosquitoes, monitor yourself for signs and symptoms.

    If you become unwell, see a doctor immediately.

    Jacqueline Stephens is affiliated with the Australasian Epidemiological Association and the International Network for Epidemiology in Policy.

    Jill Carr is affiliated with the Australasian Virology Society and receives funding from The National Health and Medical Research Council to study viral diseases.

    – ref. What is chikungunya virus, and should we be worried about it in Australia? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-chikungunya-virus-and-should-we-be-worried-about-it-in-australia-261847

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Gangs are going global and so is the illegal gun trade – NZ can do more to fight it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Gillespie, Professor of Law, University of Waikato

    According to the Global Organised Crime Index, international criminal activity has increased over the past two years. And the politically fractured post-pandemic world has made this even harder for nations to combat.

    New Zealand is far from immune. According to official advice in late March to Minister of Customs and Associate Minister of Police Casey Costello:

    The threat posed by organised crime in New Zealand has increased substantially in the last five years. Even with the best of will, New Zealand is losing the fight.

    New criminal groups are becoming active here – from Burma via Malaysia, to the Comancheros and Mongols gangs. Each brings new networks, violent tactics and the potential to corrupt institutions in New Zealand and throughout the Pacific.

    As of October 2024, the national gang list contained 9,460 names. While there is debate about the accuracy of the figures, gang membership has grown considerably. This is fuelled by the global trade in illegal drugs, with local criminal profits conservatively estimated at NZ$500–600 million annually.

    The one relative bright spot is that New Zealand hasn’t yet seen the levels of firearms-related violence driven by organised crime overseas. For example, European research shows the illegal trade in guns and drugs becoming increasingly intertwined.

    But waiting to catch up with those trends should not be an option. New Zealand already has a lot firearms. In the past six years, police conducting routine patrols have reportedly encountered 17,000 guns, or nearly ten every day, nationwide.

    In 2022, official figures showed, on average, approximately one firearms offence had been committed daily by gang members since 2019.

    The risk had become apparent much earlier, in 2016, with the discovery of fourteen military assault-grade AK47s and M16s in an Auckland house being used to manufacture methamphetamine. This year, another firearms cache, including assault rifles and semiautomatics, was found in Auckland.

    Progress and problems

    On the legal front, the main avenues New Zealand gangs use to obtain illegal firearms are being closed off. Under the Arms Act, members or close affiliates of a gang or an organised criminal group cannot be considered “fit and proper” to lawfully possess a firearm.

    These people may have specific firearms prohibition orders added against them, which allow the police additional powers to ensure firearms don’t fall into the wrong hands.

    The firearms registry is key to this. There are now more than 400,000 firearms fully accounted for, making it harder for so-called “straw buyers” to onsell them to gangs.

    Despite the progress, several challenges remain. In particular, the nature of the gun registry has been politicised, with the ACT and National parties disagreeing over a review of the system’s scope.

    Arguments over the types of firearms covered and which agency looks after the registry risk undermining its central purpose of preventing criminals getting guns.

    Theft of firearms from lawful owners needs more attention, too. Making it a specific offence – not just illegal possession – would be an added deterrent.

    Tighter and targeted policy

    Accounting for all the estimated 1.5 million firearms in New Zealand will be very difficult – especially with the buy-back and amnesty for prohibited firearms after the Christchurch terror attack likely being far from complete.

    There are also tens of thousands of non-prohibited firearms in the hands of unlicensed but not necessarily criminal owners.

    Given all firearms must be registered by the end of August 2028, there should be another buy-back (at market rates) of all guns that should be on the register. This might be expensive, but the cost of opening a large pipeline to criminals would be worse.

    There needs to be greater investment in staff, education and technology within intelligence services and customs. This will help inform evidence-based policy, and support targeted law enforcement. A recent European Union initiative to track gun violence in real time is an example of how data can help in this way.

    New Zealand is a party to the United Nations Convention against Transnational Organised Crime (and its two protocols on people trafficking and migrant smuggling). But it is not a party to a supplementary protocol covering the illicit manufacturing and trafficking of firearms and ammunition.

    That should change. Amendments to the Arms Act since 2019 mean New Zealand law and policy fit the protocol perfectly. By joining, New Zealand could strengthen regional cooperation and increase public safety, given the scale of the problem and its potential to get worse.

    Alexander Gillespie is a member of the Ministerial Arms Advisory Group (MAAG). He is also the 2024 recipient of the Borrin Justice Fellowship, and is researching revision of the NZ Arms Act. His views and opinions here are independent of both the MAAG and the Borrin Foundation.

    – ref. Gangs are going global and so is the illegal gun trade – NZ can do more to fight it – https://theconversation.com/gangs-are-going-global-and-so-is-the-illegal-gun-trade-nz-can-do-more-to-fight-it-261827

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What makes a song ‘Australian’? Triple J’s Hottest 100 reignites a bigger question of national identity

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catherine Strong, Associate Professor, Music Industry, RMIT University

    On July 26, Triple J will broadcast the Hottest 100 Australian Songs, as voted by the public. While predictions for winners and even preemptive complaining about the shortlist are taking up column space and social media posts, there is an underlying question: what we mean when we talk about “Australian songs”?

    Do these songs sound a particular way? Do they express something about what it means to be Australian? Or is it purely about where the artist was born?

    Importantly, how will each of these factors influence voting?

    Can a song sound Australian?

    Musical cultures with their own unique sounds have existed on this continent for tens of thousands of years. The sound of the didgeridoo is often used as a shorthand to signify Australianness in films, television and, to a lesser extent, popular songs.

    However, the history of dispossession and genocidal practices that have accompanied settlement in Australia means much has been lost from these musical traditions. Indigenous performers have been actively excluded from the same music-making spaces where other songs we think of as “Australian” have been created.

    Since British colonisation in the late 18th century, Australian music has also been part of global music flows. Settlers arrived with songs and musical influences from their own cultures. Jazz, country, rock and pop inspired local versions of these genres.

    But is there anything truly Australian about such music, or is it just imitation? And this conundrum connects to wider issues of Australia’s identity debated during the 20th century: was it a country, or still just a colony?

    Back in the 1970s, this question was also on then prime minister Gough Whitlams’s mind. After his election in 1972, Whitlam gave a huge boost to funding for cultural and creative activities to “help establish and express an Australian identity through the arts”, as part of a suite of nation-building activities.

    Building the pub rock canon

    The dirty guitar sounds of the pub rock scene of the 1970s, with its associated subcultures, are sometimes said to be Australia’s first distinct offering in post-rock ‘n’ roll music.

    This was followed by the rise of bands such as Midnight Oil and Cold Chisel, who found success not just by drawing on more local sounds, but also by referencing Australian places, politics and cultures.

    The Whitlam government’s broadcasting reforms meant this music had homes on community radio and the new youth station 2JJ (now Triple J).

    The bands from this era have come to make up what might be described as the Oz rock canon – a collection of works seen to make up the “best” of the art form. Canons exert a strong influence over how we assess music, meaning these bands will probably appear in the tomorrow’s countdown.

    This idea of the rock canon is almost perfectly reflected in the ten entries by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to tomorrow’s countdown. His selection of almost 100% white male musicians encapsulates the exclusionary nature rock of this period.

    The fact that our last two prime ministers, despite being from opposite sides of politics, produced very similar lists, gives us insight into the persistence of this canon, and what ideas about “Australian culture” circulate in the halls of power.

    It’s questionable whether any of the bands or songs on Albanese’s list could be said to have a coherent “Australian” sound, yet they have come to hold a place in the national imagination.

    Changing canons and new sounds

    Triple J’s Hottest 100 of All Time in 2009 was seen as a surprising recapitulation of the (male) rock canon, especially given the station’s otherwise diverse playlists.

    However, the highest-placed Australian song on the list was The Nosebleed Section by Hilltop Hoods, representing the recent and rapid rise of Aussie hip-hop.

    The 2011 Hottest 100 Australian Albums of All Time (the closest forerunner to the current poll) further updated the canon, with Powderfinger’s Odyssey Number Five (2000) in the top spot, and other top ten entries by electronic groups The Presets and The Avalanches.

    Nonetheless, the canon remained male dominated, with the highest woman-fronted album being Missy Higgins’s The Sound of White (2004) at number 29.

    The past decade has seen a boom in Indigenous representation on Australian airwaves and stages, with artists such as Thelma Plum, Barkaa, A.B. Original and Baker Boy.

    These artists use a range of genres and styles to express pride in their Indigeneity, and critique Australian identity. A.B. Original’s song January 26 was number 17 in 2016’s Hottest 100 countdown. This was also the last year Triple J chose this date for its annual broadcast, speaking to the power of music to reflect – and even inform – popular sentiment.

    Given recent national debates, a strong contender for the upcoming poll is Treaty (Radio Mix) by Yothu Yindi (which ranked number 11 of all time in 1991). These shifts show how canons can be unsettled over time.

    What if we don’t all agree?

    Recently, Creative Australia came under fire for trying to stifle Khaled Sabsabi’s politically-informed art in the interests of “social cohesion”.

    But others pointed out art provides crucial space for challenging prevailing ideas, and that social cohesion in a democracy is not about reaching complete agreement, but being able to handle disagreement.

    A Hottest 100 that reflects the diversity and even the tensions in Australian society may provoke arguments, but it is in these spaces that we can reflect on what it means to live on these lands.

    Ben Green receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Australasian Performing Right Association.

    Catherine Strong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What makes a song ‘Australian’? Triple J’s Hottest 100 reignites a bigger question of national identity – https://theconversation.com/what-makes-a-song-australian-triple-js-hottest-100-reignites-a-bigger-question-of-national-identity-261560

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ultrafast fashion brand Princess Polly has been certified as ‘sustainable’. Is that an oxymoron?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Harriette Richards, Senior Lecturer, School of Fashion and Textiles, RMIT University

    Carol Yepes/Getty Images

    Last week, the ultrafast fashion brand Princess Polly received B Corp certification. This certification is designed to accredit for-profit businesses that provide social impact and environmental benefit.

    Established on the Gold Coast in 2010, a 50% stake in Princess Polly was acquired by United States-based A.K.A. Brands in 2018.

    Since then, it has grown its global reach as a low-cost, high-turnover online retailer.

    So can ultrafast fashion ever be sustainable?

    Who is Princess Polly?

    Princess Polly distinguishes itself from other fast fashion retailers through a mission to “make on-trend, sustainable fashion accessible to everyone”.

    As part of this mission, Princess Polly is a participant of the United Nations Global Compact, which commits them to sustainable procurement. The 2024 Baptist World Aid Ethical Fashion Report placed them in the top 20% of 460 global brands assessed.

    Yet, on the sustainability rating website Good On You, Princess Polly receives a “Not Good Enough” grade, due to their lack of action on reducing plastic and textile waste or protecting biodiversity in their supply chains, and the absence of evidence that they pay their workers a living wage.

    Regardless of how they make their clothes, Princess Polly produces a lot. At the time of writing, the brand has 3,920 different styles available on their website (excluding shoes and accessories).

    Of those, 34% (1,355 styles) are listed as “lower impact,” which means items are made using materials such as organic cotton and linen, recycled polyester and cellulose fabrics. There are also 720 items on the website currently listed as “new”: their daily new arrivals means they are constantly adding fresh items for sale.

    Overproduction, no matter what the garments are made from, is inherently wasteful. Even when clothes are purchased (and 10–40% of the clothing produced each year is not sold), the poor quality of fast fashion items means that they end up in landfill faster and stay there for longer, contributing to the ongoing environmental disaster.

    Sustainability communication

    In Australia, 1,096 companies are accredited with B Corp status, including 152 fashion businesses.

    B Corp assesses the practices of a company as a whole, rather than focusing on one single social or environmental issue. Businesses must score at least 80 out of a possible 250+ points in the B Impact Assessment to achieve accreditation.

    Organisations are assessed in five key areas – community, customers, environment, governance and workers – and must meet high standards of social and environmental performance, transparency and accountability.

    Third-party accreditations such as B Corp, Fairtrade and Global Organic Textile Standard are often used by brands as a marketing tool.

    These certifications can enhance consumer trust without the need for detailed explanations. For fashion brands, accreditation can help them stand out in a crowded market. They can provide legitimacy, attract ethical fashion consumers and reduce consumer scepticism.

    While B Corp aims to provide assurance to consumers, activists have accused it of greenwashing. In 2022, the organisation came under fire for accrediting Nespresso, a brand owned by Nestlé, which has a reputation for poor worker rights and sourcing policies.

    B Corp is now facing renewed condemnation for issuing certification to Princess Polly.

    Who needs certification?

    Other B Corp certified Australian fashion brands such as Clothing the Gaps and Outland Denim have built their reputations on their ethical credentials. For values-driven fashion-based social enterprises such as these, accreditations can provide valuable guarantees regarding ethical processes.

    According to our research, however, there are several barriers fashion-based social enterprises face when pursuing ethical accreditation.

    The cost of accreditation, both financial and in terms of time, skills and resourcing, is a significant challenge. And there is no certification that covers all aspects of environmental sustainability and ethical production. As a result, fashion-based social enterprises often require multiple accreditations to fully communicate the breadth of their ethical commitments.

    Despite the costs involved, if fashion-based social enterprises don’t acquire certain certifications they risk being ineligible for government grants and tenders, such as social procurement contracts.

    Differences between fashion-based social enterprises and fast fashion brands are stark. While Clothing the Gaps, Outland Denim and Princess Polly now all hold B Corp certification, the former score much more highly on the B Impact Assessment.
    The value and credibility of the certification is diminished when it extends to unsustainable ultrafast fashion.

    Is it possible for fast fashion to ever be sustainable?

    The question of whether fast fashion can ever be sustainable has become increasingly heated since the advent of ultrafast fashion, where brands produce on demand and sell directly online.

    Fast fashion took seasonal trends from high fashion runways and made them available to consumers at low costs within weeks. Ultrafast fashion takes trends from social media and reproduces them extremely cheaply for mass consumption within days.

    Both fast and ultrafast fashion’s low-cost, high-volume models encourage consumers to value quantity over quality. Using permanent sales and discounts, these brands incentivise multiple purchases of items that may never actually be worn. Online “micro trends” and “haul” videos further spur this overconsumption.

    The overconsumption of fast fashion means lots of it ends up in landfill.
    Dipanjan Pal/Unsplash

    Princess Polly may be using more sustainable textiles and engaging in more ethical forms of production than some of its ultrafast fashion counterparts. But this is not enough when the business model itself is unsustainable. Accreditations such as B Corp are unable to account for this nuance.

    Princess Polly claims to make sustainable fashion, yet it is also proudly trend driven. As an ultrafast fashion brand, it relies on overproduction and overconsumption. The idea that this can ever be “sustainable” is simply an oxymoron.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ultrafast fashion brand Princess Polly has been certified as ‘sustainable’. Is that an oxymoron? – https://theconversation.com/ultrafast-fashion-brand-princess-polly-has-been-certified-as-sustainable-is-that-an-oxymoron-261561

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Butter wars: ‘nothing cures high prices like high prices’ – but will market forces be enough?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Renwick, Professor of Agricultural Economics, Lincoln University, New Zealand

    RobynRoper/Getty Images

    The alarming rise of butter prices has become a real source of frustration for New Zealand consumers, as well as a topic of political recrimination. The issue has become so serious that Miles Hurrell, chief executive of dairy co-operative Fonterra, was summoned to meetings with the government and opposition parties this week.

    After meeting Hurrell, Finance Minister Nicola Willis appeared to place some of the blame for the high price of butter on supermarkets rather than on the dairy giant.

    According to Stats NZ, butter prices rose by 46.5% in the year to June and are now 120% higher than a decade ago. The average price for a 500g block is NZ$8.60, with some local brands costing over $10.

    But solving the problem is not a matter of waving a magic economic wand. Several factors influence butter prices, few of which can be altered directly by government policy.

    And the question remains – would we want to? Proposals such as reducing exports to boost domestic supply, or cutting goods and services tax (GST) on dairy products, all carry consequences.

    A key factor driving butter prices in New Zealand is that 95% of the country’s dairy production is exported.

    Limited domestic supply and strong global demand have pushed up prices for a range of commodities – not just milk, but beef as well. These increases are reflected in local retail prices.

    Another contributing factor is rising costs along the supply chain. At the farm level, producers are receiving record prices for dairy. But this comes at a time when input costs have also increased significantly. It is not all profit.

    Weighing the options

    Before changing rules around dairy exports, the government must weigh the broader consequences.

    On the one hand, high milk prices benefit “NZ Inc”. The dairy sector accounts for 25% of exports and employs 55,000 New Zealanders. When farmers do well, the wider rural economy benefits – with flow-on effects for the country as a whole.

    On the other hand, there is the ongoing challenge of domestic food security. Many people cannot afford basic groceries and foodbank use is rising.

    So how can New Zealand maintain a food system that benefits from exports while also supporting struggling domestic consumers?

    One option is to remove GST from food. Other countries exempt dairy products from such taxes in an effort to make staples more affordable.

    This idea has been repeatedly reviewed and rejected – including by the 2018 Tax Working Group. In 2024, it was estimated that removing GST could cost the government between $3.3bn and $3.9bn, with only modest benefits for the average household.

    Fonterra or supermarkets?

    Another route would be to examine Fonterra’s dominance in the supply chain. There are advantages to having a strong global player. And it is not in the national interest for the company to incur losses on domestic sales.

    Still, the structure of the market may warrant scrutiny. For a long time there were just two main suppliers of processed dairy products – Fonterra and Goodman Fielder – and two main retailers – Foodstuffs and Woolworths. This set up reduced the need to compete on prices.

    While there is arguably more competition in manufacturing sector now, supermarkets are still under scrutiny and have long faced criticism for a lack of competition.

    The opaque nature of the profit margins across the supply chain also fuels suspicion. Consumers know what they pay at the checkout and what farmers receive. But the rest is less clear. This lack of transparency invites speculation about who benefits from soaring prices.

    In the end, though, the government may not need to act at all.

    As economists like to say: “Nothing cures high prices like high prices.” While demand for butter is relatively inelastic, there comes a point at which consumers reduce their purchases or seek alternatives. International buyers will also push back – and falling global demand may redirect more supply to domestic markets.

    High prices also act as a signal to producers across the globe to increase production, which could happen relatively quickly if there are favourable climatic and other conditions.

    We only need to look back to 2014, when the price of dairy dropped by 48% over the course of 12 months due to reduced demand and increased supply, to see how quickly the situation can change.

    Alan Renwick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Butter wars: ‘nothing cures high prices like high prices’ – but will market forces be enough? – https://theconversation.com/butter-wars-nothing-cures-high-prices-like-high-prices-but-will-market-forces-be-enough-261750

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Waiting too long for public dental care? Here’s why the system is struggling – and how to fix it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Santosh Tadakamadla, Professor and Head of Dentistry and Oral Health, La Trobe University

    Just over one-third of Australians are eligible for public dental services, which provide free or low cost dental treatment.

    Yet demand for these services continues to exceed supply. As a result, many Australian adults face long waits for access, which can be up to three years in some states.

    So what’s going wrong with public dental care in Australia? And how can it be fixed?

    Who funds public dental care?

    Both the federal government and state and territory governments fund public dental services. These are primarily targeted at low-income Australians, including children, and hard-to-reach populations, known as priority groups.

    Individuals and families bear a majority of the costs for dental services. They paid around 81% (A$10.1 billion) of the cost for dental services in 2022–23, either directly through out-of-pocket expenses, or through private health insurance premiums.

    The Commonwealth contributed 11% to the cost of dental care, while the states and territories paid the remaining 8% in 2022–23.

    Who is eligible for public dental care?

    Just under half of Australian children are eligible for the means-tested Child Dental Benefits Schedule. This gives them access to $1,132 of dental benefits over two years.

    While children from low-income families tend to benefit from this scheme, critics have raised concerns about the low uptake. Only one-third use the dental program in any given year.

    Some children access free or low-cost dental care from state and territory based services, such as the Victorian Smile Squad school dental program or the NSW Health Primary School Mobile Dental Program.

    Others use their private health insurance to pay for some of the costs of private dental care.

    What if you’re low-income but aren’t eligible?

    Some Australians aren’t eligible for public dental services but can’t afford private dental care. In 2022–23, around one in six people (18%) delayed or didn’t see a dental professional when they needed to because of the cost.

    Some Australians are accessing their superannuation funds under compassionate grounds for dental treatment. The amount people have accessed has grown eight-fold from 2018–19 to 2023–24, from $66.4 million to $526.4 million.

    However, concerns have been raised about the exploitation of this provision. Some people have accessed their super for dental treatment costing more than $20,000. This more than what would typically be required for urgent dental care, impacting their future financial security.

    Why are the waits so long in the public dental care system?

    The long waits are due to a combination of factors, alongside high levels need:

    • systemic under-funding by Australian governments. This is exacerbated by federal government funding for public dental services remaining fixed rather than being indexed annually

    • workforce shortages in rural and remote areas, with dental practitioners concentrated in wealthy, metro areas

    • poor incentives for the oral health workforce in public dental services

    • too few public clinics, in part because the initial outlay and ongoing equipment costs are so great.

    What is the government planning in the long term?

    The federal government is taking action to improve the affordability of dental services through long-term funding reforms only targeting priority populations to bring some dental services into Medicare.

    An initial focus is for older Australians and First Nations people.

    Cost estimates for a universal dental scheme vary significantly, depending on the population coverage and the number of dental benefits individuals are eligible for, and whether services are capped (as in the case of the Child Dental Benefits Schedule) or uncapped.

    The Grattan Institute estimates a capped scheme would cost $5.6 billion annually.

    The Australian Parliamentary Budget Office estimates it would cost $45 billion over three years.

    When increasing government funding for public dental service, it’s important policymakers ensure the services included are evidence-based and represent value for money.

    What needs to be done in the meantime

    Meaningful long-term funding reform towards a universal dental scheme requires some foundational policy work.

    First, there should be an agreed understanding of what dental services should be government subsidised and provide annual limits for reimbursement to prevent overtreatment. This would avoid some people getting a lot of dental treatment they don’t need, while others could miss out.

    Many dental services are routinely offered without any clinical benefit. This includes six-monthly oral health check-ups and cleans for low-risk patients.

    Second, resource allocation is best done when we focus on prevention and governments fund cost-effective dental services. Priority-setting is best done using economic evaluation tools.

    Third, the federal government should extend its existing decision-making frameworks to include dental services. This would bring dental care in line with medicine and service listings on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS), ensuring that safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness inform public funding decisions.

    Fourth, the government needs to reform the workforce. This should include funding to support recruitment and training of students from regional, rural and remote areas. These students are more likely to return to their communities to work, balancing the unequal distribution of the workforce.

    We also urgently need to attract and retain more people to work in public dental services.

    Finally, we need a coordinated national approach to oral health policy and funding. The federal government has an opportunity to do this now as consultations continue through 2025 to develop and implement the National Oral Health Plan 2025–2034.

    Santosh Tadakamadla received National Health and Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship (APP1161659) from 2019-2023. He is Head of Dentistry and Oral Health at La Trobe Rural Health School in Bendigo.

    Tan Nguyen receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council (Postgraduate Scholarship Scheme APP1189802). He is affiliated with Deakin University, Monash University, Oral Health Victoria, Public Association of Australia, National Oral Health Alliance and Dental Board of Australia.

    – ref. Waiting too long for public dental care? Here’s why the system is struggling – and how to fix it – https://theconversation.com/waiting-too-long-for-public-dental-care-heres-why-the-system-is-struggling-and-how-to-fix-it-261661

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Waiting too long for public dental care? Here’s why the system is struggling – and how to fix it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Santosh Tadakamadla, Professor and Head of Dentistry and Oral Health, La Trobe University

    Just over one-third of Australians are eligible for public dental services, which provide free or low cost dental treatment.

    Yet demand for these services continues to exceed supply. As a result, many Australian adults face long waits for access, which can be up to three years in some states.

    So what’s going wrong with public dental care in Australia? And how can it be fixed?

    Who funds public dental care?

    Both the federal government and state and territory governments fund public dental services. These are primarily targeted at low-income Australians, including children, and hard-to-reach populations, known as priority groups.

    Individuals and families bear a majority of the costs for dental services. They paid around 81% (A$10.1 billion) of the cost for dental services in 2022–23, either directly through out-of-pocket expenses, or through private health insurance premiums.

    The Commonwealth contributed 11% to the cost of dental care, while the states and territories paid the remaining 8% in 2022–23.

    Who is eligible for public dental care?

    Just under half of Australian children are eligible for the means-tested Child Dental Benefits Schedule. This gives them access to $1,132 of dental benefits over two years.

    While children from low-income families tend to benefit from this scheme, critics have raised concerns about the low uptake. Only one-third use the dental program in any given year.

    Some children access free or low-cost dental care from state and territory based services, such as the Victorian Smile Squad school dental program or the NSW Health Primary School Mobile Dental Program.

    Others use their private health insurance to pay for some of the costs of private dental care.

    What if you’re low-income but aren’t eligible?

    Some Australians aren’t eligible for public dental services but can’t afford private dental care. In 2022–23, around one in six people (18%) delayed or didn’t see a dental professional when they needed to because of the cost.

    Some Australians are accessing their superannuation funds under compassionate grounds for dental treatment. The amount people have accessed has grown eight-fold from 2018–19 to 2023–24, from $66.4 million to $526.4 million.

    However, concerns have been raised about the exploitation of this provision. Some people have accessed their super for dental treatment costing more than $20,000. This more than what would typically be required for urgent dental care, impacting their future financial security.

    Why are the waits so long in the public dental care system?

    The long waits are due to a combination of factors, alongside high levels need:

    • systemic under-funding by Australian governments. This is exacerbated by federal government funding for public dental services remaining fixed rather than being indexed annually

    • workforce shortages in rural and remote areas, with dental practitioners concentrated in wealthy, metro areas

    • poor incentives for the oral health workforce in public dental services

    • too few public clinics, in part because the initial outlay and ongoing equipment costs are so great.

    What is the government planning in the long term?

    The federal government is taking action to improve the affordability of dental services through long-term funding reforms only targeting priority populations to bring some dental services into Medicare.

    An initial focus is for older Australians and First Nations people.

    Cost estimates for a universal dental scheme vary significantly, depending on the population coverage and the number of dental benefits individuals are eligible for, and whether services are capped (as in the case of the Child Dental Benefits Schedule) or uncapped.

    The Grattan Institute estimates a capped scheme would cost $5.6 billion annually.

    The Australian Parliamentary Budget Office estimates it would cost $45 billion over three years.

    When increasing government funding for public dental service, it’s important policymakers ensure the services included are evidence-based and represent value for money.

    What needs to be done in the meantime

    Meaningful long-term funding reform towards a universal dental scheme requires some foundational policy work.

    First, there should be an agreed understanding of what dental services should be government subsidised and provide annual limits for reimbursement to prevent overtreatment. This would avoid some people getting a lot of dental treatment they don’t need, while others could miss out.

    Many dental services are routinely offered without any clinical benefit. This includes six-monthly oral health check-ups and cleans for low-risk patients.

    Second, resource allocation is best done when we focus on prevention and governments fund cost-effective dental services. Priority-setting is best done using economic evaluation tools.

    Third, the federal government should extend its existing decision-making frameworks to include dental services. This would bring dental care in line with medicine and service listings on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and the Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS), ensuring that safety, effectiveness and cost-effectiveness inform public funding decisions.

    Fourth, the government needs to reform the workforce. This should include funding to support recruitment and training of students from regional, rural and remote areas. These students are more likely to return to their communities to work, balancing the unequal distribution of the workforce.

    We also urgently need to attract and retain more people to work in public dental services.

    Finally, we need a coordinated national approach to oral health policy and funding. The federal government has an opportunity to do this now as consultations continue through 2025 to develop and implement the National Oral Health Plan 2025–2034.

    Santosh Tadakamadla received National Health and Medical Research Council Early Career Fellowship (APP1161659) from 2019-2023. He is Head of Dentistry and Oral Health at La Trobe Rural Health School in Bendigo.

    Tan Nguyen receives funding from National Health and Medical Research Council (Postgraduate Scholarship Scheme APP1189802). He is affiliated with Deakin University, Monash University, Oral Health Victoria, Public Association of Australia, National Oral Health Alliance and Dental Board of Australia.

    – ref. Waiting too long for public dental care? Here’s why the system is struggling – and how to fix it – https://theconversation.com/waiting-too-long-for-public-dental-care-heres-why-the-system-is-struggling-and-how-to-fix-it-261661

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 3 reasons young people are more likely to believe conspiracy theories – and how we can help them discover the truth

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jean-Nicolas Bordeleau, Research Fellow, Jeff Bleich Centre for Democracy and Disruptive Technologies, Flinders University

    Conspiracy theories are a widespread occurrence in today’s hyper connected and polarised world.

    Events such as Brexit, the 2016 and 2020 United States presidential elections, and the COVID pandemic serve as potent reminders of how easily these narratives can infiltrate public discourse.

    The consequences for society are significant, given a devotion to conspiracy theories can undermine key democratic norms and weaken citizens’ trust in critical institutions. As we know from the January 6 riot at the US Capitol, it can also motivate political violence.

    But who is most likely to believe these conspiracies?

    My new study with Daniel Stockemer of the University of Ottawa provides a clear and perhaps surprising answer. Published in Political Psychology, our research shows age is one of the most significant predictors of conspiracy beliefs, but not in the way many might assume.

    People under 35 are consistently more likely to endorse conspiratorial ideas.

    This conclusion is built on a solid foundation of evidence. First, we conducted a meta analysis, a “study of studies”, which synthesised the results of 191 peer-reviewed articles published between 2014 and 2024.

    This massive dataset, which included over 374,000 participants, revealed a robust association between young age and belief in conspiracies.

    To confirm this, we ran our own original multinational survey of more than 6,000 people across six diverse countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Germany, the US and South Africa.

    The results were the same. In fact, age proved to be a more powerful predictor of conspiracy beliefs than any other demographic factor we measured, including a person’s gender, income, or level of education.

    Why are young people more conspiratorial?

    Having established conspiracy beliefs are more prevalent among younger people, we set out to understand why.

    Our project tested several potential factors and found three key reasons why younger generations are more susceptible to conspiracy theories.

    1. Political alienation

    One of the most powerful drivers we identified is a deep sense of political disaffection among young people.

    A majority of young people feel alienated from political systems run by politicians who are two or three generations older than them.

    This under representation can lead to frustration and the feeling democracy isn’t working for them. In this context, conspiracy theories provide a simple, compelling explanation for this disconnect: the system isn’t just failing, it’s being secretly controlled and manipulated by nefarious actors.

    2. Activist style of participation

    The way young people choose to take part in politics also plays a significant role.

    While they may be less likely to engage in traditional practices such as voting, they are often highly engaged in unconventional forms of participation, such as protests, boycotts and online campaigns.

    These activist environments, particularly online, can become fertile ground for conspiracy theories to germinate and spread. They often rely on similar “us versus them” narratives that pit a “righteous” in-group against a “corrupt” establishment.

    3. Low self-esteem

    Finally, our research confirmed a crucial psychological link to self-esteem.

    For individuals with lower perceptions of self worth, believing in a conspiracy theory – blaming external, hidden forces for their problems – can be a way of coping with feelings of powerlessness.

    This is particularly relevant for young people. Research has long shown self esteem tends to be lower in youth, before steadily increasing with age.

    What can be done?

    Understanding these root causes is essential because it shows simply debunking false claims is not a sufficient solution.

    To truly address the rise of conspiracy theories and limit their consequences, we must tackle the underlying issues that make these narratives so appealing in the first place.

    Given the role played by political alienation, a critical step forward is to make our democracies more representative. This is best illustrated by the recent election of Labor Senator Charlotte Walker, who is barely 21.

    By actively working to increase the presence of young people in our political institutions, we can help give them faith that the system can work for them, reducing the appeal of theories which claim it is hopelessly corrupt.

    More inclusive democracy

    This does not mean discouraging the passion of youth activism. Rather, it is about empowering young people with the tools to navigate today’s complex information landscape.

    Promoting robust media and digital literacy education could help individuals critically evaluate the information they encounter in all circles, including online activist spaces.

    The link to self-esteem also points to a broader societal responsibility.

    By investing in the mental health and wellbeing of young people, we can help boost the psychological resilience and sense of agency that makes them less vulnerable to the simplistic blame games offered by conspiracy theories.

    Ultimately, building a society that is resistant to misinformation is not about finding fault with a particular generation.

    It is about creating a stronger, more inclusive democracy where all citizens, especially the young, feel represented, empowered, and secure.

    Jean-Nicolas Bordeleau receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. 3 reasons young people are more likely to believe conspiracy theories – and how we can help them discover the truth – https://theconversation.com/3-reasons-young-people-are-more-likely-to-believe-conspiracy-theories-and-how-we-can-help-them-discover-the-truth-261074

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Miles Franklin 2025: Siang Lu’s Ghost Cities is a haunting comedy about tyranny. Is it the funniest winner ever?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joseph Steinberg, Forrest Foundation Postdoctoral Fellow, English & Literary Studies, The University of Western Australia

    Siang Lu David Kelly/UQP

    The Miles Franklin judges described Siang Lu’s Ghost Cities, winner of the 2025 award, as “a grand farce and a haunting meditation on diaspora”. To my mind, it is perhaps the funniest novel ever to have won the Miles Franklin. In the last decade, its closest competitor would be Melissa Lucashenko’s boisterous, brilliant Too Much Lip.

    Turn the clock back a few more years, and it’d square off against the puerile humour of Tim Winton’s Cloudstreet, the zany folly of Peter Carey’s Oscar and Lucinda, and Thea Astley’s biting satire The Acolyte. It’d remain a strong contender even in such company.

    Lu earned a reputation for satire with his first novel, The Whitewash, in which he lampooned the racial politics of the film industry. Ghost Cities extends this skit, while dialling it up to 11.

    “Sitting within a tradition in Australian writing that explores failed expatriation and cultural fraud, Lu’s novel is also something strikingly new,” the judges said, praising its “absurdist bravura”.

    A comedy of tyranny

    Lu’s sense of humour relies on hyperbole. Over some 300 pages, the characters in Ghost Cities tie themselves in knots over a ludicrous series of edicts, demands and directives issued by a pair of dictators who grow crueller and more capricious with every chapter.

    Ghost Cities is a comedy of tyranny in two plots, told via alternating chapters. One begins in a semi-recognisable Sydney, then relocates to the fictitious ghost city of Port Man Tou; the other is a fable set in China’s Imperial City and its labyrinths millennia ago.


    Ghost Cities begins in the latter timeline, with the mock-heroic tale of Emperor Lu Huang Du’s ascension to the imperial throne and the beginning of his dictatorial rule. What defines his character, from the very first page, is his yawning ego; he yearns for an exceptional origin myth, a tale of patricide and regicide. The failure to fabricate myths of this kind later leads him to banish a trio of scholars to the Sixth Level of Hell and burn every book in the Imperial Library. What he wants is a hymn to his own “cunning, ruthless strategy and force of will”. But the truth is ignoble.

    Emperors should not come to power through inaction. They should not do so by “gawping as their purple-faced fathers clawed and sputtered on what would later be determined to be an awkwardly lodged chicken bone”. They should not “wait, in lacklustre fealty, for that final breathless minute to expire”. They should certainly not then proceed to order the death of every chicken in the land, because of the deranged belief “their traitorous bones were conspiring against His Imperial bloodline”. And they would be well advised not then to issue an edict forbidding the “breeding, eating and harbouring of poultry”, which leads the sons of “a hundred fallen agrarians” to swear vengeance.

    Perverse as he is, there is real pleasure to be found in tracking the consequences of Lu Huang Du’s whims. From his banishment of his brother, Lu Dong Pu, for the crime of intercepting an assassin’s blade, to his attempt to elude his prophesied death by conscripting a thousand lookalikes from among his citizens, the emperor is a character governed at every turn by an unspeakable fear of his own mortality.

    Through him, and the chapters that recount the consequences of his wildly temperamental rule in the form of an absurd fable, Lu offers a sharp yet entertaining study in the abuse of state power by the narcissistic and incompetent.

    Ghost Cities’ second dictator is a director named Baby Bao, who embarks on an egotistical undertaking of his own. His ambition is to create a “historical biopic of the infamous Indomitable Emperor Lu Huang Hu”, a self-styled piece of “cinematic history, a twenty-seven hour extravaganza – no intermission – in simultaneous worldwide release!”. Such a biopic would work primarily to reinforce his delusion that he is biologically “destined for greatness”, by illustrating his belief that his lineage can be traced to the emperor. The conceit makes gleefully explicit the egotism buried in so many artistic projects.

    The emperor is later opposed by his brother, Lu Dong Pu, and his nephew, Lu Shan Liang; his counterpart, Xiang Lu (note the resemblance of both their names to their author’s), is a phoney translator hired by the director after he goes viral for his ignorance of Chinese.

    Indecencies on indignities

    Siang Lu shares an interest in anagrams (and chess) with Russian-American writer Vladimir Nabokov, who appears in his own fiction under names such as Vivian Darkbloom and Adam von Librikov.


    Ghost Cities also includes a long, loosely iambic poem titled “Six Levels of Hell”, which narrates Lu Dong Pu’s escape from labyrinthine imprisonment beneath the Imperial City. Lu’s allusions to other texts are too various to properly discuss here. They include John Milton’s Paradise Lost, Dante’s Divine Comedy, Jorge Luis Borges’ Labyrinths, Nabokov’s Pale Fire and Italo Calvino’s Invisible Cities. These references extend Ghost Cities’ concern with the relationship between dictators, architects and artisans, rampaging gods and those humbler deities behind smaller creations.

    Women play an important role in Lu’s twin fables, albeit a comparatively subtle one. Wuer, first Lu Dong Pu’s wife and later (against her will) the Imperial Consort, records her husband’s torment in the poem Six Levels of Hell and mourns the death of Lu Shan Liang’s twin brother in a moving parenthetical aside. Yuan (who shares a name with Siang Lu’s wife), a translator and eventually Xiang Lu’s lover, is an intelligent interlocutor.

    But Ghost Cities is at its best when it piles indecencies on indignities – when it all goes totally wrong. When piglets are appointed to office. When the swine sits in the chair, and rules as it sees fit.

    Joseph Steinberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Miles Franklin 2025: Siang Lu’s Ghost Cities is a haunting comedy about tyranny. Is it the funniest winner ever? – https://theconversation.com/miles-franklin-2025-siang-lus-ghost-cities-is-a-haunting-comedy-about-tyranny-is-it-the-funniest-winner-ever-261584

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Columbia’s $200M deal with Trump administration sets a precedent for other universities to bend to the government’s will

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Cantwell, Associate Professor of Higher, Adult, and Lifelong Education, Michigan State University

    Students at Columbia University in New York City on April 14, 2025. Charly Triballeau/AFP via Getty Images

    Columbia University agreed on July 23, 2025, to pay a US$200 million fine to the federal government and to settle allegations that it did not create a safe environment for Jewish students during Palestinian rights protests in 2024.

    The deal will restore the vast majority of the $400 million in federal grants and contracts that Columbia was previously awarded, before the administration withdrew the funding in March 2025.

    It marks the first financial and political agreement a university has reached with the Trump administration in its push for more control over higher education – and stands to have significant ripple effects for how other universities and colleges carry out their basic operations.

    Amy Lieberman, the education editor at The Conversation U.S., spoke with Brendan Cantwell, a scholar of higher education at Michigan State University, to understand what’s exactly in this agreement – and the lasting precedent it may set on government intervention in higher education.

    Palestinian rights demonstrators march through Columbia University on Oct. 7, 2024, marking one year of the war between Hamas and Israel.
    Kena Betancur/AFP via Getty Images

    What’s in the deal Columbia made with the Trump administration?

    The agreement requires Columbia to make a $200 million payment to the federal government. Columbia will also pay $21 million to settle investigations brought by the U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Commission.

    Columbia will need to keep detailed statistics about student applicants – including their race and ethnicity, grades and SAT scores – as well as information about faculty and staff hiring decisions. Columbia will then have to share this data with the federal government.

    In exchange, the federal government will release most of the $400 million in frozen grant money previously awarded to Columbia and allow faculty at the university to compete for future federal grants.

    How does this deal address antisemitism?

    The Trump administration has cited antisemitism against students and faculty on campuses to justify its broad incursion into the business of universities around the country.

    Antisemitism is a real and legitimate concern in U.S. society and higher education, including at Columbia.

    But the federal complaint the administration made against Columbia was not actually about antisemitism. The administration made a formal accusation of antisemitism at Columbia in May of this year but suspended grants to the university in March. The federal government had initially acknowledged that cutting federal research grants did nothing to address the climate for Jewish students on campus, for example.

    When the federal government investigates civil rights violations, it usually conducts site visits and does very thorough investigations. We never saw such a government report about antisemitism at Columbia or other universities.

    The settlement that Columbia has entered into with the administration also doesn’t do much about antisemitism.

    The agreement includes Columbia redefining antisemitism with a broader definition that is also used by the International Holocaust Remembrance Alliance. The definition now includes “a certain perception of Jews, which may be expressed as hatred toward Jews” – a description that is also used by the U.S. State Department and several European governments but some critics say conflates antisemitism with anti-Zionism.

    Instead, the agreement primarily has to do with faculty hiring and admissions decisions. The federal government alleges that Columbia is discriminating against white and Asian applicants, and that this will allow the government to ensure that everybody who is admitted is considered only on the basis of merit.

    The administration could argue that changing hiring practices to get faculty who are less hostile to Jewish students could change the campus climate, but the agreement doesn’t really identify ways in which the university contributed to or ignored antisemitic conduct.

    Is this a new issue?

    There has been a long-running issue that conservatives and members of the Trump administration – dating back to his first term – have with higher education. The Trump administration and other conservatives have said for years that higher education is too liberal.

    The protests were the flash point that put Columbia in the administration’s crosshairs, as well as claims that Columbia was creating a hostile environment for Jewish students.

    The administration’s complaints aren’t limited to Columbia. Harvard is in a protracted conflict with the administration, and the administration has launched investigations into dozens of other schools around the country. These universities are butting heads with the administration over the same grievance that higher education is too liberal. There are also specific claims about antisemitism on university campuses and the privileges given to nonwhite students in admissions or campus life.

    While the administration has a common set of complaints about a range of universities, there is a mix of schools that the administration is taking issue with. Some of them, such as Harvard, are very high profile. The Department of Justice forced out the president at the University of Virginia in January 2025 on the grounds that he had not done enough to root out diversity, equity and inclusion programs at the public university. The University of Virginia may have been a target for the administration because a Republican governor appointed most members of its governance board and agreed with Trump’s complaints.

    How could this change the makeup of Columbia’s student population?

    The Supreme Court ruled in 2023 that Harvard’s affirmative action program, which considered race in admissions, violated the Equal Protection Clause of the 14th Amendment. This effectively ended race-based affirmative action for all U.S. colleges and universities.

    Now, with the Columbia deal, the government could say that it would expect to see a proportion of students who are white increase and students who are Black and Latino to decrease at Columbia. That’s a legal approach that America First Legal, a conservative legal advocacy group founded by Stephen Miller, a Trump administration official, has already tried.

    Back in February 2025, America First Legal alleged in a federal lawsuit that the University of California, Los Angeles, was using illegal admissions criteria, because of the number of Black and Latino students that were admitted by the school. That lawsuit is ongoing.

    Claire Shipman, Columbia University’s acting president, speaks during the school’s May 2025 commencement ceremony.
    Jeenah Moon/Pool/AFP via Getty Images

    What does this agreement mean for US higher education as a whole?

    It is an enormous, unprecedented shift in how the federal government works with higher education. Since the McCarthy era in the 1940s and ’50s, when professors were blacklisted and fired because of their alleged communism, Americans have not seen the federal government interrogate education.

    The federal government does have a role in securing people’s civil rights, including in the context of higher education, but this is very, very different from how the federal government has done civil rights investigations and entered into agreements with universities in the past.

    This agreement is very broad and gives the federal government oversight of things that have long been under universities’ control, such as whom they hire to teach and which students they admit.

    The federal government is now saying it has the right to look over universities’ shoulders and guide them in this work that has long been considered independent. And the government is willing to be extremely coercive to get universities to comply.

    What signal does this agreement send to other universities?

    This agreement sets a precedent for the government to direct colleges and universities to comply with its political agenda. This violates the long tradition of academic independence that had helped to make the U.S. higher education system the envy of the world.

    Columbia can afford paying $200 million to the federal government. Most universities can’t afford to pay $200 million.

    And most campuses cannot survive without federal resources, whether that comes in the form of student financial aid or research grants. This agreement sets a standard for other universities that, if they don’t immediately do what the federal government wants them to do, the government could impose penalties that are so high it could end their ability to operate.

    Brendan Cantwell is a Professor in the Department of Educational Administration at Michigan State University.

    – ref. Columbia’s $200M deal with Trump administration sets a precedent for other universities to bend to the government’s will – https://theconversation.com/columbias-200m-deal-with-trump-administration-sets-a-precedent-for-other-universities-to-bend-to-the-governments-will-261902

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: AI will soon be able to audit all published research – what will that mean for public trust in science?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Kaurov, PhD Candidate in Science and Society, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    Jamillah Knowles & Digit/Better Images of AI, CC BY-SA

    Self-correction is fundamental to science. One of its most important forms is peer review, when anonymous experts scrutinise research before it is published. This helps safeguard the accuracy of the written record.

    Yet problems slip through. A range of grassroots and institutional initiatives work to identify problematic papers, strengthen the peer-review process, and clean up the scientific record through retractions or journal closures. But these efforts are imperfect and resource intensive.

    Soon, artificial intelligence (AI) will be able to supercharge these efforts. What might that mean for public trust in science?

    Peer review isn’t catching everything

    In recent decades, the digital age and disciplinary diversification have sparked an explosion in the number of scientific papers being published, the number of journals in existence, and the influence of for-profit publishing.

    This has opened the doors for exploitation. Opportunistic “paper mills” sell quick publication with minimal review to academics desperate for credentials, while publishers generate substantial profits through huge article-processing fees.

    Corporations have also seized the opportunity to fund low-quality research and ghostwrite papers intended to distort the weight of evidence, influence public policy and alter public opinion in favour of their products.

    These ongoing challenges highlight the insufficiency of peer review as the primary guardian of scientific reliability. In response, efforts have sprung up to bolster the integrity of the scientific enterprise.

    Retraction Watch actively tracks withdrawn papers and other academic misconduct. Academic sleuths and initiatives such as Data Collada identify manipulated data and figures.

    Investigative journalists expose corporate influence. A new field of meta-science (science of science) attempts to measure the processes of science and to uncover biases and flaws.

    Not all bad science has a major impact, but some certainly does. It doesn’t just stay within academia; it often seeps into public understanding and policy.

    In a recent investigation, we examined a widely-cited safety review of the herbicide glyphosate, which appeared to be independent and comprehensive. In reality, documents produced during legal proceedings against Monsanto revealed that the paper had been ghostwritten by Monsanto employees and published in a journal with ties to the tobacco industry.

    Even after this was exposed, the paper continued to shape citations, policy documents and Wikipedia pages worldwide.

    When problems like this are uncovered, they can make their way into public conversations, where they are not necessarily perceived as triumphant acts of self-correction. Rather, they may be taken as proof that something is rotten in the state of science. This “science is broken” narrative undermines public trust.

    Scientists know that a lot of scientific work is inconsequential, but the public may interpret this differently.
    Jamillah Knowles & We and AI, CC BY-SA

    AI is already helping police the literature

    Until recently, technological assistance in self-correction was mostly limited to plagiarism detectors. But things are changing. Machine-learning services such as ImageTwin and Proofig now scan millions of figures for signs of duplication, manipulation and AI generation.

    Natural language processing tools flag “tortured phrases” – the telltale word salads of paper mills. Bibliometric dashboards such as one by Semantic Scholar trace whether papers are cited in support or contradiction.

    AI – especially agentic, reasoning-capable models increasingly proficient in mathematics and logic – will soon uncover more subtle flaws.

    For example, the Black Spatula Project explores the ability of the latest AI models to check published mathematical proofs at scale, automatically identifying algebraic inconsistencies that eluded human reviewers. Our own work mentioned above also substantially relies on large language models to process large volumes of text.

    Given full-text access and sufficient computing power, these systems could soon enable a global audit of the scholarly record. A comprehensive audit will likely find some outright fraud and a much larger mass of routine, journeyman work with garden-variety errors.

    We do not know yet how prevalent fraud is, but what we do know is that an awful lot of scientific work is inconsequential. Scientists know this; it’s much discussed that a good deal of published work is never or very rarely cited.

    To outsiders, this revelation may be as jarring as uncovering fraud, because it collides with the image of dramatic, heroic scientific discovery that populates university press releases and trade press treatments.

    What might give this audit added weight is its AI author, which may be seen as (and may in fact be) impartial and competent, and therefore reliable.

    As a result, these findings will be vulnerable to exploitation in disinformation campaigns, particularly since AI is already being used to that end.

    Reframing the scientific ideal

    Safeguarding public trust requires redefining the scientist’s role in more transparent, realistic terms. Much of today’s research is incremental, career‑sustaining work rooted in education, mentorship and public engagement.

    If we are to be honest with ourselves and with the public, we must abandon the incentives that pressure universities and scientific publishers, as well as scientists themselves, to exaggerate the significance of their work. Truly ground-breaking work is rare. But that does not render the rest of scientific work useless.

    A more humble and honest portrayal of the scientist as a contributor to a collective, evolving understanding will be more robust to AI-driven scrutiny than the myth of science as a parade of individual breakthroughs.

    A sweeping, cross-disciplinary audit is on the horizon. It could come from a government watchdog, a think tank, an anti-science group or a corporation seeking to undermine public trust in science.

    Scientists can already anticipate what it will reveal. If the scientific community prepares for the findings – or better still, takes the lead – the audit could inspire a disciplined renewal. But if we delay, the cracks it uncovers may be misinterpreted as fractures in the scientific enterprise itself.

    Science has never derived its strength from infallibility. Its credibility lies in the willingness to correct and repair. We must now demonstrate that willingness publicly, before trust is broken.

    Naomi Oreskes has received funding from various academic and philanthropic organisations. Currently, her research is partly funded by the Rockefeller Family Fund and the Maine Community Fund. She also receives royalties from her publications and honoraria for speaking events.

    Alexander Kaurov does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. AI will soon be able to audit all published research – what will that mean for public trust in science? – https://theconversation.com/ai-will-soon-be-able-to-audit-all-published-research-what-will-that-mean-for-public-trust-in-science-261363

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Business coalition calls for 25% cut in the cost of red tape by 2030

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Business, universities, and investors have jointly urged the federal government to commit to cutting the cost of red tape by 25% by 2030, in a submission for next month’s Economic Reform Roundtable.

    The push to reduce regulation is in line with action by the EU and the United Kingdom’s Labour government, the submission says.

    “Cutting red tape means faster home builds, quicker loan approvals, and lower prices at the checkout,” it says.

    “For Australians, it’s the difference between waiting months or days for a service, and it ensures growth isn’t choked by unnecessary or outdated processes that haven’t kept up with the modern world.”

    The need to push against red tape is highlighted in the recently-published book Abundance by Derek Thompson and Ezra Klein. The book has impressed Treasurer Jim Chalmers, who has urged his colleagues to read it.

    The coalition of 27 groups includes small, medium and large businesses, universities and the investment community. The united approach is an attempt by business to avoid being divided and trapped at the roundtable, as business felt it was at the 2022 Jobs and Skills summit.

    On taxation, the submission proposes a three-month review, supported by Treasury, the Productivity Commission, business representatives and other stakeholders to “kick start” comprehensive tax reform.

    The exercise would be underpinned by principles that encouraged investment and economic growth.

    Business has become concerned the roundtable could be a way of seeking support for tax increases rather than comprehensive tax reform.

    The submission says tax reform and the trade offs involved, should not be pursued separately from measures to promote efficiency and spending restraint to “ensure government lives within its means”.

    Tax reform should support the dynamism and productivity of Australian individuals and businesses”, the submission says.

    Revenue should be raised with the least possible cost to society, and there should be minimum distortions to work, savings and investment.

    Among other proposals, the coalition urges a boost to investment and innovation by reforming the handling of R&D.

    It says there should be a national strategy to boost Australia’s investment competitiveness.

    The submission backs reforming the framework for environmental and planning approvals. It says there should be a “single, predictable, and transparent approval pathway that provides timely and certain decisions.”

    “Our economic rule book is out of date. If we don’t fix it, not only will Australians struggle to get ahead in life, but future generations are at risk of missing out on the quality of life we enjoy today,” the joint group of industry associations says.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Business coalition calls for 25% cut in the cost of red tape by 2030 – https://theconversation.com/business-coalition-calls-for-25-cut-in-the-cost-of-red-tape-by-2030-259688

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: net zero battle has net zero positives for Sussan Ley

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    There’s no other way of looking at it: Sussan Ley faces a diabolical situation with the debate over whether the Coalition should abandon the 2050 net zero emissions target.

    The issue is a microcosm of her wider problems. The Nationals, the minor party in the Coalition, are determined to run their own race on most things. The Liberals have become akin to two parties, split between those eyeing urban seats and younger voters, and right-wingers reflecting the party’s conservative grassroots.

    Nobody misses the contrast. The Albanese government is beset by a host of actual issues around the transition to a clean energy economy. The renewables rollout is not going as fast as desirable and is meeting with resistance in some communities. Energy costs are high. But such problems are not putting any pressure on Labor’s unity.

    At the same time, the opposition is fractured over an argument about a target that’s a quarter of a century away, when who knows what the technological or political landscape will look like. For the opposition, the internal debate about net zero is about symbols and signals, rather than substance.

    The net zero debate exploded within the opposition this week with Barnaby Joyce’s private member’s bill to scrap Australia’s commitment to it. The timing, in parliament’s first week, was extraordinarily inconvenient for Ley. But if not now, it would have erupted later.

    On present indications, the Nationals appear likely to ditch the net zero commitment. David Littleproud, anxious to avoid the issue becoming a threat to his leadership, is reading the party room and positioning himself to be in the anticipated majority.

    Asked on Thursday whether he supported net zero, Littleproud told the ABC, “well, I have real concerns about it, to be candid. What net zero has become is about trying to achieve the impossible, rather than doing what’s sensible.” But, he insisted, “we’re not climate deniers”.

    It is less clear how the debate will pan out in the Liberal Party, once the group under Shadow Energy Minister Dan Tehan produces its report on energy and emissions-reduction policy.

    Liberal sources say the issue is now being driven by the party’s grassroots, rather than the parliamentary party. Branches are throwing up motions to get rid of the 2050 target.

    The Western Australian Liberal state council will debate a motion this weekend to drop the net zero commitment. The Queensland LNP organisation will consider its position next month. A few weeks ago, the South Australian Liberal state council rejected net zero.

    With a policy review underway, Ley and the parliamentary Liberals have left a vacuum on the issue. Some Liberals warn the parliamentarians risk being run over by the party outside parliament. Others point out that on policy, the parliamentarians are independent of the organisation, which often comes up with right-wing motions.

    How should Ley best handle the situation? By filling the vacuum with a position sooner rather than later. That means accelerating the Tehan report. Beyond that, ideally she should be taking leadership on the issue herself. But is she in a strong enough position to do that?

    One idea being floated would be for the Liberals to retain the net zero target but extend the time frame. This wouldn’t stop the criticism about the shift.

    Whether the Coalition could stay as one if its two parties had different positions on net zero may be an open question but it certainly would be messy.

    On the other side of politics, the government is rapidly approaching a decision on another key target – the one Australia will put up internationally for cutting emissions by 2035. Inevitably, this will be contentious.

    This target must be submitted by September (it was conveniently delayed beyond the election). Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen has yet to receive advice on the target from the Climate Change Authority (advice that will be published). The target is expected to be between 65% and 75%.

    The challenge will be to strike a target with sufficient ambition that doesn’t alienate business and the regions.

    Next week the executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Simon Stiell, will be in Canberra for talks. His comments will be carefully watched.

    Last year he told the Sydney Morning Herald, “the world needs countries like Australia to take climate action and ambition to the next level, and it’s firmly in the interests of every Australian that they do so”.

    Climate and energy issues will have a place at next month’s economic reform roundtable. Bowen is organising two preliminary roundtables – on electricity, with energy user stakeholders, and on climate adaptation. He told The Conversation’s podcast that adaptation will “be an increasing focus of this government and future governments because, tragically, the world has left it too late to avoid the impacts of climate change”.

    The government is waiting, somewhat impatiently, for the decision on whether Australia will be given the nod to host next year’s UN climate conference. The COP meeting, which would be in Adelaide in November 2026, is an enormous event to put on, so the decision is becoming urgent.

    Bowen says Australia already has the numbers over Turkey, the other contender. But “one of the things about the process to decide COPs, I’ve learnt, is it’s quite opaque and there’s no particular timeline and no particular rules to the ballot.

    “It’s meant to work on a consensus, sort of an old world, sort of gentlemanly sort of approach to say whoever loses will withdraw. That’s not the way it’s panning out. I’ve had multiple meetings with my Turkish counterpart to try to find a ‘win-win’ solution. We haven’t been able to find that yet.”

    Stiell’s trip includes Turkey as well as Australia. Bowen will be hoping he may provide some clarity, when they meet, about how the “opaque” process of assigning the COP meeting is going. Bowen will be emphasising how important the proposed co-hosting COP with the Pacific is to the region, with climate change already an existential issue for many Pacific countries.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grattan on Friday: net zero battle has net zero positives for Sussan Ley – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-net-zero-battle-has-net-zero-positives-for-sussan-ley-261092

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –