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  • MIL-Evening Report: What is retinol? And will it make my acne flare? 3 experts unpack this trendy skincare ingredient

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laurence Orlando, Senior Lecturer, Product Formulation and Development, Analytical Methods, Monash University

    Irina Kvyatkovskaya/Shutterstock

    Retinol skincare products suddenly seem to be everywhere, promising clear, radiant and “youthful” skin.

    But what’s the science behind these claims? And are there any risks?

    You may have also heard retinol can increase your risk of sunburn and even make acne worse.

    For some people, retinol may help reduce the appearance of fine lines. But it won’t be suitable for everyone. Here’s what you need to know.

    What is retinol?

    Retinol is part of a family of chemical compounds called retinoids. These are derived from or related to Vitamin A, a nutrient essential for healthy skin, vision and immune function.

    All retinoids work because enzymes in our skin convert them into their “active” form, retinoic acid.

    You can buy retinol in creams and other topical products over the counter.

    These are often promoted as “anti-ageing” because retinol can help reduce the appearance of fine lines, wrinkles and even out skin tone (for example, sun spots or acne scars).

    It also has an exfoliating effect, meaning it can help unclog pores.

    Stronger retinoid treatments that target acne will require a prescription because they contain retinoic acid, which is regulated as a drug in the United States, European Union, United Kingdom and Australia.

    How is retinol used in skincare?

    One of the most common claims about retinol is that it helps to reduce visible signs of ageing.

    How does this work?

    With age, the skin’s barrier becomes weaker, making it more prone to dryness, injury and irritation.

    Retinol can help counteract this natural thinning by stimulating the proliferation of keratinocytes – cells that form the outer skin layer and protect against damage and water loss.

    Retinol also stimulates the production of collagen (a key protein that creates a scaffolding that keeps skin firm and elastic) and fibroblasts (cells that produce collagen and support skin structure).

    It also increases how fast the skin sheds old cells and replaces them with new ones.

    Over time, these processes help reduce fine lines, fade dark spots and even out skin tone. It can also make skin appear clearer.

    While effective, this doesn’t happen overnight.

    You may have also heard about a “retinol purge” – a temporary flare of acne when you first start using topical retinoids.

    Studies have found the skin may become irritated and acne temporarily worsen in some cases. But more research needs to be done to understand this link.

    The idea of a retinol purge is popular on social media.
    TikTok, CC BY-NC-ND

    So, is retinol safe?

    At typical skincare concentrations (0.1–0.3%), side effects tend to be mild.

    Most people who experience irritation (such as redness, dryness, or peeling) when starting retinol are able to build tolerance over time. This process is often called “retinisation”.

    However, retinol increases the skin’s sensitivity to UV radiation (known as photosensitivity). This heightened reactivity can lead to sunburn, irritation and an increased risk of hyperpigmentation (spots or patches of darker colour).

    For this reason, daily use of broad-spectrum sunscreen (SPF30 or higher) is strongly recommended while using retinol products.

    Who should avoid retinol?

    Teenagers and children generally don’t need retinol unless specifically prescribed by a doctor, for example, for acne treatment.

    People with sensitive skin or conditions such as eczema (dry, itchy and inflamed skin) and rosacea (chronic redness and sensitivity) may find retinol too irritating.

    Using retinol products alongside other skincare treatments, such as alpha-hydroxy acids, can over-exfoliate your skin and damage it.

    Importantly, the active form of retinol, retinoic acid, is teratogenic (meaning it can cause birth defects). Over-the-counter retinol products are also not recommended during pregnancy or breastfeeding.

    Choose and store retinol products wisely

    Since retinol is classified as a cosmetic ingredient, companies are not required to disclose its concentration in their products.

    The European Union is expected to introduce new regulations that will cap the concentration of retinol in cosmetic facial products to 0.3%.

    These are precautionary measures aimed to limit exposure for vulnerable groups, such as pregnant women, given the risk of birth defects.

    It’s therefore recommended to use products that clearly state the retinol concentration is between 0.1% and 0.3%.

    Retinol is also a notoriously unstable molecule that degrades with exposure to air, light or heat.

    Choosing a product with airtight, light-protective packaging will help with potential degradation problems that could lead to inactivity or harm.

    What’s the safest way to try retinol?

    The key is to go low and slow: a pea-sized amount of a low-concentration product (0.1%) once or twice a week, preferably at night (to avoid UV exposure), and then the frequency and concentration can be increased (to a maximum of 0.3%) as the skin adjusts.

    Using a moisturiser after retinol helps to reduce dryness and irritation.

    Wearing sunscreen every day is a must when using retinol to avoid the photosensitivity.

    If you experience persistent redness, burning, or peeling, it’s better to stop using the product and consult your doctor or a dermatologist for personalised advice.

    Laurence Orlando is affiliated with the Australian Society of Cosmetic Chemists.

    Professor Ademi currently serves as a member of the Economics Sub Committee of the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee within the Department of Health, Australia which assesses clinical and economic evaluations of medicines submitted for listing on the PBS. She leads the global economics initiative for the Lp(a) International Task Force and Member of Professional Advisory Board of Familial Hypercholesterolemia (FH) Australia. Zanfina Ademi receives funding from FH Europe Foundation to understand the population screening for LP(a), globally. Received funding from National Health and Medical Research Council, Medical Research Future Fund not in relation to to this work, but work that relates to health economics of prevention and cost-effectiveness.

    Zoe Porter does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is retinol? And will it make my acne flare? 3 experts unpack this trendy skincare ingredient – https://theconversation.com/what-is-retinol-and-will-it-make-my-acne-flare-3-experts-unpack-this-trendy-skincare-ingredient-256074

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Decades of searching and a chance discovery: why finding Leadbeater’s possum in NSW is such big news

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Lindenmayer, Distinguished Professor of Ecology, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University

    Until now, Victorians believed their state was the sole home for Leadbeater’s possum, their critically endangered state faunal emblem. This tiny marsupial is clinging to life in a few pockets of mountain ash and snow gum habitat in the Central Highlands of Victoria.

    But a few days ago, seven grainy photos taken by a trail camera in New South Wales revealed something very unexpected: a Leadbeater’s possum hundreds of kilometres away in the wet forests of Kosciuszko National Park.

    For decades, we and other researchers have sought proof this possum existed in these forests. Now we have it. This is a moment of celebration. But it also signals the importance of well-resourced biodiversity surveys in uncovering our most threatened species and large national parks for conserving them.

    While this newly discovered population reduces the risk of extinction, it doesn’t change the decline and risk of extinction of its Victorian relatives – or the steps needed to safeguard them.

    These photos from Kosciuszko National Park are the first proof that Leadbeater’s possum has a NSW population.
    NSW Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, CC BY-NC-ND

    Detected entirely by chance

    In 2024, New South Wales threatened species ecologists Fred Ford and Martin Schulz set about looking for an entirely different species, the endangered smoky mouse. To find it, they set up a wide array of camera traps throughout wet forest areas of Kosciuszko National Park. A year later, they collected them and trawled through millions of photos.

    Among all these images (including of smoky mice), there were seven which stunned them. A camera deployed near Yarrangobilly Caves captured a tiny possum scampering through leaf litter, holding its distinctive club-shaped tail erect. The possum looks around the monitoring site, showing its back and face stripes and heart-shaped face.

    Experts at The Australian National University and Zoos Victoria verified the photos, setting the ecology world abuzz.

    A trail camera near Yarrangobilly Caves in Kosciuszko National Park captured the sighting.
    Destinations Journey/Shutterstock

    A hunch confirmed

    While we are delighted at this remarkable discovery, the detection is not a complete surprise.

    Over three decades ago, this article’s lead author searched for Leadbeater’s possum around Yarrangobilly and many other parts of Kosciuszko National Park, guided by a bioclimatic model suggesting the cool wet forests in Kosciuszko National Park should suit the possum.

    But detection cameras were not available then, and this possum is notoriously hard to spot. It’s tiny, nocturnal and spends its waking hours dashing through the dense understory of some of the world’s tallest forests looking for nectar, sap and insects.

    Species experts from Zoos Victoria and Deakin University have also scouted parts of Kosciuszko National Park over the past decade, identifying potentially promising habitat.

    In 2010 we got confirmation the possum had once occurred in the area, when jaw bones were identified among bones regurgitated by owls on the floor of a nearby cave.

    But other bones from the cave floor date back an estimated 140–200 years. The bones were far from proof of a living population.

    The possum’s existence remained an open question until these photos.

    What does this mean for this possum?

    We don’t know anything about this newly discovered Leadbeater’s possum population in NSW, other than the fact that it exists. Given the distance from the Victorian populations, we suspect that they may be genetically distinct.

    In theory, the existence of a separate population 250 km away from the Victorian populations cuts the risk a single megafire or other catastrophe could push the species to extinction.

    But while welcome, the discovery doesn’t reduce the need to urgently protect surviving Victorian populations, which remain highly threatened by bushfire, climate change, predation by cats, and the legacy of logging and land clearing.

    In Victoria, some populations have dwindled as low as 40 animals and inbreeding is now a concern.

    The possum typically relies on large old trees with hollows where it can breed and den. But these trees have substantially declined in Victoria over the past 150 years. Leadbeater’s possum also needs smaller trees for feeding and movement.

    Surveys across the historical range of the species in Victoria since 2017 have failed to find any other hidden populations. Most surveys have found the habitat highly degraded from logging and fire.

    The discovery won’t alter the possum’s critically endangered status at this stage, nor the ongoing work to support it.

    In welcome news, the NSW Environment Minister announced the possum’s state conservation listing will be fast-tracked.

    Of surveys and parks

    Why did it take so long to find the possum? The main reason: a lack of resources preventing targeted investigations.

    Even basic inventories of species have not been done across many of Australia’s important conservation areas.

    Without well conducted surveys and monitoring, we are left overly reliant on chance detections for critical information. There could be other populations of imperilled species waiting to be rediscovered.

    Properly managing our growing number of threatened species shouldn’t be based on luck. It should be enabled by adequate resources for threatened species recovery teams to discover, map, protect and manage threatened species and their habitat.

    Increasing federal spending on the care of nature to 1% of the budget would go a very long way to closing these gaps.

    Trail cameras, call playback and environmental DNA sampling mean we can now survey large and remote natural areas with relatively little effort for long periods of time.

    Big parks are essential

    Kosciuszko National Park supports much more than Australia’s highest mountains. The huge park spans 690,000 hectares, much of it forest.

    Many of our most imperilled species are hard to detect. Protecting extensive areas of good-quality habitat boosts the survival chances for these species, even if we don’t yet have proof of life.

    With so little high-quality habitat left in Australia, proper protection through new national parks (including in Victoria) is vitally important for the possum and many other species.

    Passive protection isn’t enough either – adequate funding is critical to stop the environmental condition of parks from declining, due to threats like invasive species and extreme fires.

    The world still contains wonder

    These seven photos have given ecologists and nature lovers a real boost to their spirits. As detection techniques improve, what else is out there waiting to be found?

    The authors would like to acknowledge the contribution of Leadbeater’s possum experts Dan Harley, Arabella Eyre, John Woinarski and Brendan Wintle to this article.

    David Lindenmayer receives funding from the Australian Government and the Victorian Government. He is a Councillor with the Biodiversity Council and a Member of Birds Australia.

    Darcy Watchorn works for Zoos Victoria, a not-for-profit zoo-based conservation organisation. He is a member of the Ecological Society of Australia, the Australian Mammal Society, the Society for Conservation Biology, and the Royal Society of Victoria.

    Jaana Dielenberg was employed by the now-ended Threatened Species Recovery Hub of the Australian Government’s National Environmental Science Program, which conducted research on the Leadbeater’s possum in Victoria. She is a Charles Darwin University Fellow and is employed by the University of Melbourne and the Biodiversity Council.

    – ref. Decades of searching and a chance discovery: why finding Leadbeater’s possum in NSW is such big news – https://theconversation.com/decades-of-searching-and-a-chance-discovery-why-finding-leadbeaters-possum-in-nsw-is-such-big-news-257957

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is there a right way to talk to your baby? A baby brain expert explains ‘parentese’

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Herbert, Associate Professor in Developmental Psychology, University of Wollongong

    2p2play/Shutterstock

    You might have seen those heartwarming and often funny viral videos where parents or carers engage in long “talks” with young babies about this and that – usually just fun chit chat of no great consequence.

    They’re often very sweet, and it’s lovely to see the babies’ faces lighting up at the sound of their mother or carer’s voice, or seeming to talk back. In one, the baby appears to reply in an accent strikingly similar to their carer’s:

    So, what’s going on when we chat like this to babies? And is it better to chat to them in the tone and pace we’d use when talking to other adults, or is it OK to talk in a slower, higher pitched, sing-song voice?

    Here’s what the research shows so far.

    Talking to your baby matters

    When you speak with your baby, they are exposed to a rich tapestry of sounds and movements. Can babies make sense of all this input?

    Well, by the time they’re born babies are already highly experienced with their mother’s voice as well as other language sounds they’ve heard while in utero.

    In fact, research shows newborns prefer listening to the language they heard in utero rather than an unfamiliar language.

    They also prefer to hear the story their mother read aloud regularly in the final weeks of pregnancy, compared to a different story – regardless of who is reading it.

    So, although newborns are yet to understand the meaning of these words, they are already tuned in to the importance of language.

    Given the vast exposure that most young babies have with their parent’s voice, passively listening to mum or dad talking is likely to be comforting.

    Time spent together in close physical contact with a highly familiar person producing familiar sounds creates a safe, secure space rich in learning opportunities.

    Babies can learn a lot about conversational style from just listening to and watching the way their parent communicates.

    In fact, babies mimic their parents’ gestures, which can help build their vocabulary over time. The social context influences language skills.

    Time spent in close physical contact with a familiar person producing familiar sounds creates a safe learning space for baby.
    Photo by Josh Willink/Pexels

    What if I run out of things to say?

    If you’re not a fan of monologuing to your baby, don’t worry. They’re not missing out.

    In fact, constant exposure to long monologues by a parent is unlikely to provide the baby with a particularly supportive language environment for developing their understanding or production of words.

    Adult language is extremely complex. It takes a lot of experience with language before a string of sounds like “Yourdadlikeschocolatemoltenlavacake” can be interpreted as individual words linked to people, objects, or concepts.

    One of the most effective ways to support early word recognition and promote attention to the structure of language is for the adult to use a simplified way of speaking to the baby.

    “Parentese” is characterised by the use of higher pitch sounds, elongated vowels, and a slower pace of speaking. Real words are presented in a sing-song, happy voice.

    Parentese draws the baby’s attention to words, and highlights how information in speech chunks together. Babies have been found to prefer to listen to this style of speaking compared to standard speech.

    Time spent talking together in face-to-face interactions best supports language development.
    Tomsickova Tatyana/Shutterstock

    Speaking ‘parentese’

    Parentese is not the same thing as “baby talk”. Baby talk involves the use of nonsense words, and the modelling of incorrect speech sounds and grammar. A baby is not being supported to learn the word “water” if they are repeatedly presented with a nonsense label like “waa waa” for their drink.

    One US study found that when parents were trained to use parentese with their infants at six and ten months, the infants showed an increase in babbling and said more words at 14 months, compared to infants of parents who did not receive this training.

    Other research has shown consistent use of parentese in the early years can help build the complexity of children’s language skills at five years of age.

    Learning to talk is not simply the product of hearing lots of words. In the first weeks of life, infants are already beginning to produce coos and murmurs that both parents and outside observers judge to be intentional vocalisations.

    Try responding to these sounds by imitating them and then interpreting what your baby might be trying to say. This enables them to take a turn as a social partner in the conservation.

    When even very young babies take turns in conversations with an adult, the quality of their vocalisations increases.

    At the youngest ages, time spent talking together in face-to-face interactions best supports language development.

    With age, babies become increasingly interested in the objects in their environment.

    Try responding to your baby’s sounds by imitating them and interpreting what they might be trying to say.
    Halfpoint/Shutterstock

    So, what should I do?

    An effective way to boost language learning from about nine months of age is to notice what’s captured your baby’s attention and talk about that.

    Try labelling and describing what your baby is looking at, playing with, pointing at, or babbling towards.

    Research by colleagues and I found encouraging parents to engage in 15 minutes of this kind of talk a day with their 11-month-olds for a month was effective in promoting vocabulary growth at 15 and 18 months.

    Overall, a rich language environment is created by engaging with your baby in a wide range of activities – via games, songs, and reading aloud – not just having focused conversations.

    Jane Herbert has received funding for these projects: 2012-15: Does promoting parents’ engagement with their infants benefit language development?” Nuffield Foundation (approx. £200,000). D Matthews (PI, University of Sheffield), JS Herbert (University of Sheffield), and J Pine (University of Liverpool). 2011-12: Does promoting parents’ engagement with their infants benefit language development? British Academy Small Research Grant (£7,500). Co-PIs: D Matthews (University of Sheffield), JS Herbert (University of Sheffield), and J Pine (University of Liverpool).

    – ref. Is there a right way to talk to your baby? A baby brain expert explains ‘parentese’ – https://theconversation.com/is-there-a-right-way-to-talk-to-your-baby-a-baby-brain-expert-explains-parentese-257007

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In Bradfield, the election is not yet over. What happens when a seat count is ultra close?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Graeme Orr, Professor of Law, The University of Queensland

    Election day was over four weeks ago. Yet the outcome in one House of Representatives remains unclear. That is the formerly Liberal Sydney electorate of Bradfield.

    In real time, you can watch the lead tilt between Liberal hopeful, Gisele Kapterian and her teal independent rival, Nicolette Boele. The difference between them has been as small as one vote. As of Monday, that had shifted to 12 votes in the Teal’s favour. Still too close even for Antony Green to call.

    What are the processes for resolving ultra-marginal results? And, more broadly, what accountability is there for problems in campaigning or the running of the election, such as the allegation that voters in one NSW town were misled about how to vote?

    First, to the Bradfield saga. The Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has until July 9 to declare the result. It then certifies a list of successful candidates, which it “returns”, attached to the original writ the governor-general used to formally begin the election.

    Electoral challenges

    Within 40 days of the writ being returned, any candidate or elector from the seat can “petition” its result. That’s not a petition calling for parliament to handle the matter. It means a formal pleading to the Court of Disputed Returns. For national elections, that means the High Court.

    Remarkably few seats are challenged in Australia. On the happy side, this is because our election agencies are very professional. It’s also a matter of legal principle, arithmetic and resources.

    To succeed in a challenge, you must show the outcome was likely to have been affected, by errors or breaches of the electoral act. With more than 100,000 voting in House of Representatives electorates, even a 0.5% margin means convincing a judge that a 500-vote lead was uncertain.

    The last successful petition nationally was 12 years ago. The AEC admitted some lost ballots meant that the last couple of Western Australian Senate seats could have been different. The whole race had to be re-run.

    In Bradfield, there’s no suggestion of impropriety. So it’s not like the last unsuccessful petition, from 2019, where the Liberals survived claims that misleading how-to-vote posters, directed at Chinese language speakers, might have affected the result.

    Instead, the Bradfield loser would focus on disputed ballots. That would mean, for example, votes where their scrutineers noted some uncertainty. Such as whether a “1” was a “7”. A judge can then give a binding ruling on the intent of the ballot.

    The loser might also try to find evidence of people being wrongly denied a ballot or wrongly issued one. The 40-day period to marshal evidence is strict.

    Besides time limits, a challenger needs lawyers and risks paying the other side’s (and perhaps the AEC’s) legal costs if they lose the hearing.

    Counts and recounts

    Australian election counts are very thorough. This is in contrast to the United Kingdom, where local officials literally rush to be the first to declare, in the wee hours of Friday morning after voting closes at 10pm on a Thursday.

    The figures we see on election night are “indicative” only, drawing on counts in thousands of polling places. Every ballot is transferred to a more central location, for official tallying. Ballots for weaker candidates are reviewed multiple times, as they pass on according to each elector’s preferences.

    When a seat is ultra-close, the law permits a complete recount. AEC policy is to conduct one whenever the result is within 100 votes: in Bradfield, the initial result was a mere eight votes.

    A losing candidate can also request a recount. Teal independent Zoe Daniel did that in her Melbourne seat of Goldstein, where Liberal Tim Wilson finished 260 votes ahead.

    Recounts are resource intensive. So the AEC agreed to review all “1” votes for those candidates, and ballots put in the “informal” or invalid pile. Wilson finally won by 175 votes. A challenge to a margin of that size seems very unlikely.

    Bad form or protest? Informal votes

    What of votes that couldn’t be counted? We call these “informal”. Given turning-out to vote is compulsory – and the requirement to give preferences – Australia has long had a lot of informal ballots.

    Upwards of half tend to be accidental, caused by people misnumbering the ballot or not understanding the rules. The highest rates are in seats with many new citizens from overseas, especially as long ballots of many of candidates is becoming common.

    Votes that cannot be counted are called ‘informal’, and can be a source of dispute in a seat count.
    Shutterstock

    Maybe more than half, however, are deliberate, intended as protests against the system or parties. These include blanks and those scribbled with (sometimes obscene) comments. As faith in parties has declined, informals have risen. Also, due to “automatic enrolment”, more people are enrolled than ever, including some who’d rather not be. Informal ballots this year reached 5.6% of turnout. For perspective, that’s up just 0.4%.

    Voters in the small town of Missabotti in the New South wales seat of Cowper, however, were miffed to find their polling booth had a 45% informal rate. That’s quite an outlier, even for a seat where electors had to rank a dizzying 11 candidates.

    There are allegations a polling official misled some electors, by telling them they only had to number “6” candidates for the House. That is the rule for the Senate, not the House.

    As preferences are not mandatory at NSW state elections, it’s understandable voters may have heeded such advice rather than the actual rule on the ballot. Such an error would be embarrassing for the AEC. But it could hardly ground an election challenge: the Nationals held Cowper by almost 5,500 votes.

    Does that mean there’s no accountability? Anyone affected does not get to vote again. But the AEC is investigating. And after every election, it is grilled by a parliamentary inquiry that the public can contribute to.

    In the end, every vote should be sacred. In reality, elections are huge logistical events and nothing is perfect. But there are courts and inquiries to offer remedies and improve things for the future.

    Graeme Orr does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In Bradfield, the election is not yet over. What happens when a seat count is ultra close? – https://theconversation.com/in-bradfield-the-election-is-not-yet-over-what-happens-when-a-seat-count-is-ultra-close-257956

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bougainville wants independence. China’s support for a controversial mine could pave the way

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna-Karina Hermkens, Senior Lecturer and Researcher, Anthropology, Macquarie University

    Bougainville, an autonomous archipelago currently part of Papua New Guinea, is determined to become the world’s newest country.

    To support this process, it’s offering foreign investors access to a long-shuttered copper and gold mine. Formerly owned by the Australian company Rio Tinto, the Panguna mine caused displacement and severe environmental damage when it operated between 1972 and 1989.

    It also sparked a decade-long civil war from 1988 to 1998 that killed an estimated 10,000 to 15,000 civilians and caused enduring traumas and divisions.

    Industry players believe 5.3 million tonnes of copper and 547 tonnes of gold remain at the site. This is attracting foreign interest, including from China.

    Australia views Bougainville as strategically important to “inner security arc”. The main island is about 1,500 kilometres from Queensland’s Port Douglas.

    Given this, the possibility of China’s increasing presence in Bougainville raises concerns about shifting allegiances and the potential for Beijing to exert greater influence over the region.

    Australia’s tangled history in Bougainville

    Bougainville is a small island group in the South Pacific with a population of about 300,000. It consists of two main islands: Buka in the north and Bougainville Island in the south.

    Bougainville has a long history of unwanted interference from outsiders, including missionaries, plantation owners and colonial administrations (German, British, Japanese and Australian).

    Two weeks before Papua New Guinea received its independence from Australia in 1975, Bougainvilleans sought to split away, unilaterally declaring their own independence. This declaration was ignored in both Canberra and Port Moresby, but Bougainville was given a certain degree of autonomy to remain within the new nation of PNG.

    The opening of the Panguna mine in the 1970s further fractured relations between Australia and Bougainville. Landowners opposed the environmental degradation and limited revenues they received from the mine. The influx of foreign workers from Australia, PNG and China also led to resentment. Violent resistance grew, eventually halting mining operations and expelling almost all foreigners.

    Under the leadership of Francis Ona, the Bougainville Revolutionary Army (BRA) fought a long civil war to restore Bougainville to Me’ekamui, or the “Holy Land” it once was.

    Australia supported the PNG government’s efforts to quell the uprising with military equipment, including weapons and helicopters.

    After the war ended, Australia helped broker the Bougainville Peace Agreement in 2001. Although aid programs have since begun to heal the rift between Australia and Bougainville, many Bougainvilleans feel Canberra continues to favour PNG’s territorial integrity.

    In 2019, Bougainvilleans voted overwhelmingly for independence in a referendum. Australia’s response, however, was ambiguous.

    Despite a slow and frustrating ratification process, Bougainvilleans remain adamant they will become independent by 2027.

    As Bougainville President Ishmael Toroama, a former BRA commander, told me in 2024:

    We are moving forward. And it’s the people’s vision: independence. I’m saying, no earlier than 2025, no later than 2027. My benchmark is 2026, the first of September. I will declare. No matter what happens. I will declare independence on our republican constitution.

    Major issues to overcome

    Bougainville leaders see the reopening of Panguna mine as key to financing independence. Bougainville Copper Limited, the Rio Tinto subsidiary that once operated the mine, backs this assessment.

    The Bougainville Autonomous Government has built its own gold refinery and hopes to create its own sovereign wealth fund to support independence. The mine would generate much-needed revenue, infrastructure and jobs for the new nation.

    But reopening the mine would also require addressing the ongoing environmental and social issues it has caused. These include polluted rivers and water sources, landslides, flooding, chemical waste hazards, the loss of food security, displacement, and damage to sacred sites.

    Many of these issues have been exacerbated by years of small-scale alluvial mining by Bougainvilleans themselves, eroding the main road into Panguna.

    Some also worry reopening the mine could reignite conflict, as landowners are divided about the project. Mismanagement of royalties could also stoke social tensions.

    Violence related to competition over alluvial mining has already been increasing at the mine.

    More broadly, Bougainville is faced with widespread corruption and poor governance.

    The Bougainville government cannot deal with these complex issues on its own. Nor can it finance the infrastructure and development needed to reopen the mine. This is why it’s seeking foreign investors.

    Open for business

    Historically, China has a strong interest in the region. According to Pacific researcher Anna Powles, Chinese efforts to build relationships with Bougainville’s political elite have increased over the years.

    Chinese investors have offered development packages contingent on long-term mining revenues and Bougainville’s independence. Bougainville is showing interest.

    Patrick Nisira, the minister for commerce, trade, industry and economic development, said last year the proposed Chinese infrastructure investment is “aligning perfectly with Bougainville’s nationhood aspirations”.

    The government has also reportedly made overtures to the United States, offering a military base in Bougainville in return for support reopening the mine.

    Given American demand for minerals, Bougainville could very well end up in the middle of a battle between China and the US over influence in the new nation, and thus in our region.

    Which path will Bougainville and Australia take?

    There is support in Bougainville for a future without large-scale mining. One minister, Geraldine Paul, has been promoting the islands’ booming cocoa industry and fisheries to support an independent Bougainville.

    The new nation will also need new laws to hold the government accountable and protect the people and culture of Bougainville. As Paul told me in 2024:

    […]the most important thing is we need to make sure that we invest in our foundation and that’s building our family and culture. Everything starts from there.

    What happens in Bougainville affects Australia and the broader security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific. With September 1 2026 just around the corner, it is time for Australia to intensify its diplomatic and economic relationships with Bougainville to maintain regional stability.

    Anna-Karina Hermkens receives funding from the Australian Research Council to follow and analyse Bougainville’s journey towards independence.

    – ref. Bougainville wants independence. China’s support for a controversial mine could pave the way – https://theconversation.com/bougainville-wants-independence-chinas-support-for-a-controversial-mine-could-pave-the-way-254320

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is populism?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Moffitt, Senior Lecturer in Politics and International Relations, Monash University

    In 2017, in the wake of Brexit and Donald Trump’s first election win, populism was named the “word of the year” by Cambridge University Press.

    Almost a decade later, we might have thought the term’s popularity would have faded.

    But with Trump back in power in the United States, the Reform Party polling very well in the United Kingdom, and Argentinian president Javier Milei wielding his chainsaw at public events, populism is very much still with us.

    But what is populism? Is it a left or right phenomenon? And is it here to stay?

    What is populism?

    Put simply, populism is a political phenomenon that revolves around the central divide between “the people” and “the elite”.

    Although there is agreement on this divide, academics tend to disagree on two things when it comes to populism.

    The first is what kind of phenomenon it is. Is populism an ideology (that is, a belief system)? A strategy? Or is it a kind of performative political style?

    Secondly, experts disagree on whether populism is a threat or corrective to democracy. Some think it can be both.

    Populism: left or right?

    Much of the confusion about populism stems from the fact that it can appear across the ideological spectrum.

    This is because “the people” and “the elite” are flexible terms, and populists can characterise them in very different ways.

    Right-wing populists tend to characterise “the people” in socio-cultural terms, and often combine their populism with nativism.

    Think for instance, of how Trump’s “people” are coded as White Americans.

    Or, how Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi evokes Hindu nationalism in his definition of “the people”.

    Other prominent right-wing populist leaders include the likes of Viktor Orban of Hungary, Nigel Farage of the United Kingdom, Geert Wilders of the Netherlands, and Australia’s Pauline Hanson.

    Left-wing populists, meanwhile, tend to characterise “the people” in socio-economic terms. They often combine their populism with calls for economic redistribution or shifts in power.

    Examples include Latin American populist leaders like Evo Morales of Bolivia and Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, who sought to bring the poor into their conception of “the people”.

    In the US, Bernie Sanders’ 2016 and 2020 presidential primary campaigns put the working class and people in precarious work at the heart of his “people”.

    Other examples of left-wing populism include the Podemos and Syriza parties in Spain and Greece respectively.

    This also means the way populists tend to define “the elite” is quite different.

    Right-wing populist targets often include:

    • government and policy elites (think of Trump’s “drain the swamp”)
    • cultural elites (Trump’s attacks on media as “fake news”)
    • academics (attacks on the “ivory tower”) and
    • transnational bodies (such as attacks on the United Nations).

    These groups are connected in right-wing populist discourse and purported to be undermining “the people’s” livelihood by abetting increased immigration or the destruction of “traditional values”.

    Left-wing populists tend to target business and power elites, who they see as fleecing “the people” economically and keeping them from expressing their popular power (think of Occupy Wall Street’s divide between the 99% and the 1%).

    Populists also tend to have a suspicion of transnational organisations. But while right-wing populists tend to focus on the likes of the United Nations and World Health Organisation, left-wing populists are more suspicious of business transnationals such as the World Trade Organization or World Economic Forum.

    Is populism here to stay?

    After every major election where a populist leader or party succeeds, there is inevitably talk of a “populist earthquake”, “populist wave” or “populist tsunami”.

    These metaphors suggest populism has come out of nowhere, and is causing a major and unexpected shock to the system.

    But that’s simply not the case.

    If anything, the story of 21st century politics has been one in which populism has become “normalised” and “mainstreamed”.

    Populists are no longer merely “challenger” parties nor minor parties.

    They increasingly are among the top three parties in their respective countries (particularly in Europe), and have won government in places from the US to India to the Netherlands to Italy to Greece.

    This success has seen them steadily viewed as viable and “normal” political players.

    Meanwhile, mainstream parties and leaders have increasingly adopted elements of populists’ discourse, platforms and political styles, as a way to compete with populists.

    This, ironically, has had the effect of legitimising populists in many countries; it makes their policies and discourse look more “acceptable”.

    It’s important to be cynical about any pundit crowing about the “death” of populism – or, on the flipside, the idea it has come out of nowhere.

    Populism is here to stay. Acknowledging that can help us better understand its appeal, which in turn, can provide hints about how to best deal with it.

    Benjamin Moffitt receives or has received funding from the Australian Research Council and the Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation.

    – ref. What is populism? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-populism-249369

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: As the NRL edges into Darwin, does the AFL need to be more proactive in the NT?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tim Harcourt, Industry Professor and Chief Economist, University of Technology Sydney

    The Northern Territory government recently announced the Dolphins, the NRL’s newest team that entered the league in 2023, would play a home game at TIO Stadium in Darwin every year from 2026 to 2028.

    The Dolphins deal replaces a 12-year partnership between the NT and the Parramatta Eels, which ran from 2014 to 2025.

    The NRL announcement came soon after the AFL’s Gold Coast played two “home” games at TIO Stadium during Sir Doug Nicholls Round, which is dedicated to Indigenous players, cultures and communities.

    Looking ahead, Darwin will be the only capital city in Australia without an AFL or NRL team when the Tasmania Devils join the AFL in 2028 as its 19th team. The NT is, however, pushing hard to join as the AFL’s 20th club.

    So, as the NRL dips its toes into the NT, will the AFL look to defend its territory?

    The case for an AFL team in the NT

    The “footy case” for a standalone NT team is strong: the Territory has produced rich reservoirs of football talent from Alice Springs to the Arafura Sea, with stars such as Michael Long, the Rioli family (Maurice Snr, Cyril, Dean, Daniel, Willie and Maurice Jnr) and Andrew McLeod dominating games and delighting fans.

    According to James Coventry’s book Footballistics, the NT shines in terms of participation rates. Only about 250,000 people live in the Top End, but more than 13% participate in Aussie rules programs compared to 8% in Western Australia, 6% in South Australia and 2% in Victoria. In terms of girls and women, the Territory boasts the highest Aussie rules participation rate in the country.

    The NT has traditionally been a strong source of AFL draftees, producing more per capita than any other state or territory except for Victoria and South Australia. Around 10% of AFL players are Indigenous, with many emanating from the NT.

    But in recent years, Indigenous numbers have declined. In 2024, 70 men and 21 women players identified as Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander – a decrease of 17% since 2020.



    Read more:
    It’s clear footy has an Indigenous participation problem, and the AFL draft is only part of the solution

    An NT team would surely be a boon for Indigenous players who want to stay local.

    In the NRL, about 12% of players identify as Indigenous, although only a handful come from the NT.

    How would an AFL team look?

    The Territory AFL Team Taskforce, in its strategic business case for the 20th licence, has examined a number of options.

    These include current AFL clubs playing more matches in Darwin and Alice Springs, a relocated club, or a Darwin-based standalone NT team that also plays in Alice Springs.

    The taskforce has also considered a northern Australia team (Darwin based but also playing in Cairns), although that is a less likely option at this stage given it would be hard to have two home grounds so far apart, along with the need to play some games in Alice Springs.

    The NT plan also includes an AFLW team and possibly a reserves team in second tier competitions such as the Victorian Football League (VFL) or maybe even the South Australian National Football League (SANFL) or West Australian Football League (WAFL).

    Of course, that’s the footy case. The economic case is much more complex.

    Dollars and cents

    A standalone NT team would need significant financial assistance from the AFL and governments to be successful.

    The AFL distributes its profits among its clubs, with smaller teams receiving a greater share as part of its equalisation aims.

    Even with a significant AFL contribution of A$7.83 million per year, the taskforce forecasted an NT club would need the federal and NT government to fund an operation funding gap of $18.89 million annually.

    This would include a new or upgraded stadium, which would “anchor the opportunity to bid for a 20th licence,” according to AFL NT chairman Sean Bowden.

    The taskforce noted:

    The economic benefit to the NT could be as much as $559 million if the new club was provided with a new stadium. An AFL team would create 160 full-time jobs, bring game day activation of the economy and add $116 million a year in economic output to the Territory economy.

    Other considerations

    Hand in hand with the economic benefits come the social impacts.

    The NT has serious problems with diabetes and associated health problems, education and imprisonment.

    The taskforce has committed to develop pathways for elite AFL and AFLW footballers and also create a safety net of social programs for all Territorians under the umbrella of the NT AFL team.

    The taskforce stated having elite pro sports teams could inspire Indigenous children, particularly in remote communities.

    A big decision to make

    As the NRL continues to make its presence felt in the NT, the AFL faces a big decision as the Territory pushes for a standalone team.

    The prospect of Australia’s only indigenous game boasting teams from Tasmania to the Top End, and from the east coast to the west coast in every capital city, would no doubt warm the hearts of all football supporters.

    It might also be too much for the AFL, as custodians of the great Australian game, to resist.

    Tim Harcourt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As the NRL edges into Darwin, does the AFL need to be more proactive in the NT? – https://theconversation.com/as-the-nrl-edges-into-darwin-does-the-afl-need-to-be-more-proactive-in-the-nt-257809

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Your smartphone is a parasite, according to evolution

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachael L. Brown, Director of the Centre for Philosophy of the Sciences and Associate Professor of Philosophy, Australian National University

    vchal/shutterstock, The Conversation

    Head lice, fleas and tapeworms have been humanity’s companions throughout our evolutionary history. Yet, the greatest parasite of the modern age is no blood-sucking invertebrate. It is sleek, glass-fronted and addictive by design. Its host? Every human on Earth with a wifi signal.

    Far from being benign tools, smartphones parasitise our time, our attention and our personal information, all in the interests of technology companies and their advertisers.

    In a new article in the Australasian Journal of Philosophy, we argue smartphones pose unique societal risks, which come into sharp focus when viewed through the lens of parasitism.

    What, exactly, is a parasite?

    Evolutionary biologists define a parasite as a species that benefits from a close relationship with another species – its host – while the host bears a cost.

    The head louse, for example, is entirely dependent on our own species for its survival. They only eat human blood, and if they become dislodged from their host, they survive only briefly unless they are fortunate enough to fall onto another human scalp. In return for our blood, head lice give us nothing but a nasty itch; that’s the cost.

    Smartphones have radically changed our lives. From navigating cities to managing chronic health diseases such as diabetes, these pocket-sized bits of tech make our lives easier. So much so that most of us are rarely without them.

    Yet, despite their benefits, many of us are hostage to our phones and slaves to the endless scroll, unable to fully disconnect. Phone users are paying the price with a lack of sleep, weaker offline relationships and mood disorders.

    From mutualism to parasitism

    Not all close species relationships are parasitic. Many organisms that live on or inside us are beneficial.

    Consider the bacteria in the digestive tracts of animals. They can only survive and reproduce in the gut of their host species, feeding on nutrients passing through. But they provide benefits to the host, including improved immunity and better digestion. These win-win associations are called mutualisms.

    The human-smartphone association began as a mutualism. The technology proved useful to humans for staying in touch, navigating via maps and finding useful information.

    Philosophers have spoken of this not in terms of mutualism, but rather as phones being an extension of the human mind, like notebooks, maps and other tools.

    From these benign origins, however, we argue the relationship has become parasitic. Such a change is not uncommon in nature; a mutualist can evolve to become a parasite, or vice versa.

    Smartphones as parasites

    As smartphones have become near-indispensible, some of the most popular apps they offer have come to serve the interests of the app-making companies and their advertisers more faithfully than those of their human users.

    These apps are designed to nudge our behaviour to keep us scrolling, clicking on advertising and simmering in perpetual outrage.

    The data on our scrolling behaviour is used to further that exploitation. Your phone only cares about your personal fitness goals or desire to spend more quality time with your kids to the extent that it uses this information to tailor itself to better capture your attention.

    So, it can be useful to think of users and their phones as akin to hosts and their parasites – at least some of the time.

    While this realisation is interesting in and of itself, the benefit of viewing smartphones through the evolutionary lens of parasitism comes into its own when considering where the relationship might head next – and how we could thwart these high-tech parasites.

    A bluestreak cleaner wrasse at work cleaning the mouth of a goatfish.
    Wayne and Pam Osborn/iNaturalist, CC BY-NC

    Where policing comes in

    On the Great Barrier Reef, bluestreak cleaner wrasse establish “cleaning stations” where larger fish allow the wrasse to feed on dead skin, loose scales and invertebrate parasites living in their gills. This relationship is a classic mutualism – the larger fish lose costly parasites and the cleaner wrasse get fed.

    Sometimes the cleaner wrasse “cheat” and nip their hosts, tipping the scale from mutualism to parasitism. The fish being cleaned may punish offenders by chasing them away or withholding further visits. In this, the reef fish exhibit something evolutionary biologists see as important to keeping mutualisms in balance: policing.

    Could we adequately police our exploitation by smartphones and restore a net-beneficial relationship?

    Evolution shows that two things are key: an ability to detect exploitation when it occurs, and the capacity to respond (typically by withdrawing service to the parasite).

    A difficult battle

    In the case of the smartphone, we can’t easily detect the exploitation. Tech companies that design the various features and algorithms to keep you picking up your phone aren’t advertising this behaviour.

    But even if you’re aware of the exploitative nature of smartphone apps, responding is also more difficult than simply putting the phone down.

    Many of us have become reliant on smartphones for everyday tasks. Rather than remembering facts, we offload the task to digital devices – for some people, this can change their cognition and memory.

    We depend on having a camera for capturing life events or even just recording where we parked the car. This both enhances and limits our memory of events.

    Governments and companies have only further cemented our dependence on our phones, by moving their service delivery online via mobile apps. Once we pick up the phone to access our bank accounts or access government services, we’ve lost the battle.

    How then can users redress the imbalanced relationship with their phones, turning the parasitic relationship back to a mutualistic one?

    Our analysis suggests individual choice can’t reliably get users there. We are individually outgunned by the massive information advantage tech companies hold in the host-parasite arms race.

    The Australian government’s under-age social media ban is an example of the kind of collective action required to limit what these parasites can legally do. To win the battle, we will also need restrictions on app features known to be addictive, and on the collection and sale of our personal data.

    Rob Brooks receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Rachael L. Brown does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Your smartphone is a parasite, according to evolution – https://theconversation.com/your-smartphone-is-a-parasite-according-to-evolution-256795

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Scandalous mormons, dystopian Buenos Aires and Nicolas Cage down under: what to watch in June

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claudia Sandberg, Senior Lecturer, Technology in Culture and Society, The University of Melbourne

    As we head into a new month of streaming, here’s a fresh wave of TV ready to challenge, transport and entertain you.

    This month’s picks span genre and geography, from an eerie dystopian Buenos Aires, to a witty, awkward cyborg hero. Reality TV also gets a scandalous twist with the return of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives. And Deaf President Now! delivers a powerful documentary on a historical milestone for Deaf rights.

    There’s something for every kind of viewer — and every kind of mood.

    The Eternaut

    Netflix

    Argentine sci-fi The Eternaut opens with a group of old friends in Buenos Aires meeting to play the card game truco on a hot summer night – when things suddenly get eerie.

    The power goes out and a poisonous snowfall starts to blanket the city, killing thousands of people instantly. The survivors must get answers, quickly, as they start to grasp the true strength of their invisible enemy.

    Based on Héctor Germán Oesterheld’s 1950s comic of the same name, The Eternaut portrays apocalypse through a deeply local and political lens – and in doing so has struck a chord in Argentina.

    Directed by Bruno Stagnaro and led by Argentine film icon Ricardo Darín, as protagonist Juan Salvo, the series emphasises the power of collective heroism, and subtly critiques the current government’s uncompromising neoliberal approach.

    It also pulses with national pride. Buenos Aires is not glamorized; real neighbourhoods are shown as classic Argentine tango, rock and folk plays in the background. Most importantly, Argentine identity is celebrated through themes of community spirit, grassroots resistance, and ingenuity in times of crisis.

    The Eternaut feels both timely and timeless. Its slogan, “no one survives alone,” resonates for a country that has been long marked by both trauma and resistance efforts.

    Its emotional weight is further deepened by Oesterheld’s legacy, including the tragic disappearance of him and his family members under the military rule of the 1970s.

    With a second season on the way, this series is a powerful ode to Argentina.

    – Claudia Sandberg



    Read more:
    Why Netflix’s The Eternaut is one of the most important shows to come out of Argentina in recent years

    Murderbot

    Apple TV+

    Murderbot, Apple’s adaptation of Martha Wells’ science-fiction novella, All Systems Red (2017) is a satisfying combination of action, sci-fi and comedy. The show centres on a security unit (SecUnit) – an indentured private security cyborg – who secretly cracks the programming of its governing chip, granting itself autonomy.

    Murderbot (Alexander Skarsgård), as it dubs itself, is both horrified and fascinated by humans. It’s far more afraid of eye contact, emotions and direct conversation than any physical danger. It’s also obsessed with mainlining media, particularly the ridiculous soap opera The Rise and Fall of Sanctuary Moon.

    Murderbot is hired, reluctantly, by some hippy scientists from a group of “freehold” planets – ones that exist outside the Corporation Rim – to act as protection on a scientific expedition. It goes quickly awry.

    Wells’ award-winning novella, the first in an equally good series, limits us to the first-person perspective of the sarcastic cyborg. The series expands this frame beautifully, building on the source material’s dry humour to create a world that is both goofy and grounded.

    And while there are serious themes at play, such as the way SecUnits are effectively enslaved, and the violent capitalist dominance of the Corporation Rim, the show is not heavy. Skarsgård offers a pitch-perfect performance of the awkward, anxious robot – its eyes flickering in horror as the scientists try to befriend it.

    The opening minutes of the first episode are clumsy and on-the-nose, but ignore them. This otherwise well-designed and well-directed show cracks along with brisk, highly-entertaining 22-minute episodes.

    – Erin Harrington

    The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives, season two

    Disney+

    Season one of The Secret Lives of Mormon Wives had us hooked at the end of 2024. Now, the women have returned for an explosive 10-episode second season.

    The reality series follows a group of Mormon women living in Utah. While the title may have you anticipating stories of faith and motherhood, the show is more focused on the personal lives of Mormon mothers who rose to TikTok fame due to scandal and infamy.

    Season one saw the women grapple with balancing traditional Mormon values with their online lives and subsequent businesses (along with the fallout from a “soft-swinging scandal”). Season two further highlights infidelity, jealously and money.

    Old characters are brought back, with finger-pointing ex-husbands and former alienated friends adding to the fray. Police are called, insults are thrown and many of the women delve deeper into their pasts.

    The show flips flops between difficult moments such as processing the death of loved ones and difficult pregnancies, with parties and poorly executed party games. At one point the women play pregnancy roulette (a game no one should recommend), and take pregnancy tests which are anonymously read out to the group. Chaos ensues.

    And after watching, you can search for the TikTok accounts of the stars and watch new drama unfold in real-time – or watch them “correct” and expand on past situations based on their own perspectives – far removed from show’s editors.

    – Edith Jennifer Hill

    Deaf President Now!

    Apple TV+

    Deaf President Now! is a stirring documentary about an iconic student uprising at Gallaudet University, the world’s only Deaf university, in 1988. The film chronicles how Deaf students – tired of being led by hearing leadership – decided to take things in their own hands come the 1988 Gallaudet presidential election.

    With two of the three candidates being Deaf, the appointment of Elisabeth Zinser, a hearing candidate unfamiliar with Deaf culture, sparked outrage. Fuelled by decades of marginalisation, the students barricaded campus gates, burned effigies of Zinser and marched to the Capitol, calling for Deaf leadership in Deaf spaces.

    It worked. The protest forced Zinser’s resignation and ushered in Irving King Jordan, Gallaudet’s first Deaf president.

    The film juxtaposes historic footage with present-day interviews with key leaders of the movement, allowing them to tell their stories their own way. These reflections, delivered in American Sign Language (ASL), underscore how storytelling itself can become an act of resistance for Deaf people.

    At the same time, the documentary wrestles with a paradox. Co-directed by Deaf activist Nyle DiMarco and hearing filmmaker Davis Guggenheim, the film exemplifies how Deaf storytelling still often has hearing involvement, especially when the story is packaged for a mainstream audience.

    Nevertheless, the release of Deaf President Now! couldn’t have been more timely. With disability rights in the United States threatened under Trump, the film is a call to action. It reminds us Deaf culture isn’t just about language: it’s about Pride, self-determination and visibility.

    – Gemma King, Samuel Martin and Sofya Gollan



    Read more:
    Deaf President Now! traces the powerful uprising that led to Deaf rights in the US – now again under threat

    The Surfer

    Stan, from June 15

    In Lorcan Finnegan’s The Surfer, our unnamed protagonist (Nicolas Cage) is returning to his former Australian home from the United States. He is newly divorced, and trying to buy a beachside property to win back his family.

    He takes his teenage son (Finn Little) for a surf near the property, but they are run off by an unfriendly pack of locals.

    Returning alone to the beachside car park to make some calls, he is besieged there by the same gang, and this continues over the next several days. The gang is led by a terrifying middle-aged Andrew Tate-esque influencer, Scally (Julian McMahon), who runs the beach like a combination of a frat bro party and wellness retreat.

    It is impossible to think of an actor other than Cage who could make a character like this so enjoyable to watch. Cage’s distinctively American confidence has no resistance to the terrifying switches of Australian masculinity from friendly to teasing to violent.

    The Surfer is an absolute blast. A lot of the fun is in anticipating each dreadful humiliation – and it somehow turning out worse than you could have expected.

    The Surfer beautifully captures the natural surroundings, stunning views and shimmering heat of Australian coastal summer. At the same time, a confined, semi-urban feature like a beachside car park feels bleak and uninviting.

    As a film setting, it is both a spectacular wide-open vista and stiflingly claustrophobic – a perfect mechanism for The Surfer’s psychological horror.

    – Grace Russell



    Read more:
    Dishevelled, dehydrated delirium: new Aussie film The Surfer, starring Nicolas Cage, is an absolute blast

    Fred and Rose West: A British Horror Story

    Netflix

    The story of serial killers, Fred and Rose West, has been highly narrativised since their shocking crimes were discovered in Gloucester in 1994. The horror of the Wests lies in the juxtaposition of their seemingly ordinary suburban family and what was hidden beneath the foundations of their home.

    Fred and Rose West: A British Horror Story takes us back to the moment of that revelation via previously unheard interview tapes and recordings of the property search – and of Rose while she was kept in a safe house. Family home videos add to the disturbing sense of the couple’s duplicity.

    Interviews with the family of some of the victims emphasise the ongoing pain caused by the Wests, who preyed on vulnerable young women. Meanwhile, Fred’s interviews reinforce his determination to protect his wife: “I trained Rose to do what I wanted. That is why our marriage worked out so well.”

    Many details of the Wests’ true horror, however, are absent: the incredible torture suffered by the victims; Fred and Rose’s own childhoods of abuse and Fred’s earlier assault of young girls, including his own sister; and any reference to the couple’s surviving children and the extraordinary abuse they suffered.

    The horror of this new documentary is present in the couple’s habitual lies, their casual attitude to violence and murder, and their refusal to take responsibility for their many crimes. Yet it only scratches the surface of the Wests’ true horror story.

    – Jessica Gildersleeve

    The Four Seasons

    Netflix

    The Four Seasons follows three 50-something affluent couples as they holiday together over the course of a year.

    Friends since college, the group’s easy camaraderie is upended by Nick’s (Steve Carroll) bombshell decision to leave his seemingly unsuspecting wife, Anne (Kerri Kenney-Silver), after 25 years of marriage. The announcement sends shockwaves through the other couples, testing their own relationships.

    Adapted from Alan Alda’s bittersweet 1981 comedy of the same name, the series preserves the film’s narrative conceit, unfolding over four seasonal mini trips. Episode one opens in full spring at Nick and Anne’s bucolic lake house.

    Given the luxury on display, you’d be forgiven for mistaking The Four Seasons as another entry in the “rich-people-behaving-badly” genre. But while there’s plenty of quips and snarky humour, what unfolds is ultimately much kinder – less a scathing indictment of wealth and more a gentle exploration of the banalities of love and middle age.

    The show’s creators make the most of the expanded running time to humanise the sextet. The open marriage between gregarious Italian Claude (Marco Calvini) and husband Danny (a marvellous Colman Domingo) updates the source material without sliding into tokenism or homonormativity.

    The prickly Type-A Kate (Tina Fey) and peacekeeper Jack (Will Forte) provide the series’ beating heart, in a relationship that feels lived-in and familiar.

    Despite its focus on ageing, loss, mortality and grief, The Four Seasons offers comfort viewing at its finest, best enjoyed with a cup of tea and a loved one who’s known you for decades.

    – Rachel Williamson

    Gemma King receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    Claudia Sandberg, Edith Jennifer Hill, Erin Harrington, Grace Russell, Jessica Gildersleeve, Rachel Williamson, Samuel Martin, and Sofya Gollan do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Scandalous mormons, dystopian Buenos Aires and Nicolas Cage down under: what to watch in June – https://theconversation.com/scandalous-mormons-dystopian-buenos-aires-and-nicolas-cage-down-under-what-to-watch-in-june-257549

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: With interest rates on the way down, could house prices boom? Here’s what research suggests

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Graham, Senior Lecturer in Economics, University of Sydney

    Jenny Evans/Stringer/Getty

    With the Reserve Bank of Australia easing monetary policy, interest rates are on the way down.

    Already this year, mortgage pre-approvals had begun to rise, suggesting many aspiring home buyers are excited by the prospect of cheaper home loans.

    With further cuts expected before the end of the year, some economists are predicting we could be on the cusp of another house price boom. Lower interest rates enable people to borrow more and potentially spend more on homes, bidding up prices.

    So, how might the Reserve Bank’s actions affect home buying behaviour and the housing market more broadly? Research offers us some clues.

    How rates affect prices

    Research shows that when a central bank lowers its benchmark interest rate, mortgage interest rates usually follow suit.

    We saw this following the Reserve Bank’s May decision to cut rates. Australia’s big four banks immediately announced similar reductions in rates for new and existing borrowers.

    Lower rates reduce the cost of servicing a loan. This is a big deal for Australian home buyers, whose mortgages can be very large.

    With the average house price in Australia now hitting about $1 million, an 80% loan saddles the typical home buyer with $800,000 in debt.

    Back in March, the average interest rate on new mortgages was 6%. For the average million-dollar house, this implies a monthly repayment of around $4,796, using the standard formula for amortising loans.

    After the Reserve Bank cut the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points, this implies a new monthly repayment of $4,669 – $127 less. That’s a small, but surely welcome, relief for mortgage holders.

    Combined with the Reserve Bank’s prior rate cut in February, such borrowers are now saving more than $250 a month relative to the start of the year.

    Everyone can borrow more

    Lower rates can also improve the borrowing capacity of new home buyers.

    Before a bank issues a new mortgage, it weighs the ability of a borrower to service the loan. It does this by considering the amount of income they’ll have left over after meeting typical expenses.

    This is known as a borrower’s “net income surplus”, and the proportion of this that is used to service a loan is known as the “net surplus ratio”.

    The maximum ratio is capped at 90%, but the typical mortgage is lent against a ratio of less than 70%.

    If a household earns $100,000 per year and allocates 25% to expenses, it can afford $4,375 in monthly mortgage repayments at a 70% net surplus ratio.

    Given the previous interest rate of 6%, this maximum monthly repayment implies the household can afford to borrow $680,000. But after a 0.25 percentage point rate cut, this household can now afford a $695,000 home loan.

    And following the 0.50 percentage points of cuts we’ve seen since January, this household’s borrowing capacity is up by $30,000.

    Pulling up the ladder

    For an individual home buyer, this extra borrowing may be enough to secure that dream home. But the rate cut affects everyone at the same time, increasing the borrowing capacity of home buyers all over the country.

    All of this extra mortgage credit feeds housing demand, which is likely to pour more fuel into an already overheated market.

    Indeed, recent research indicates that a 0.25 percentage point cut in the cash rate will likely lead to a 1.5–2% increase in average house prices over the following one to two years.

    That’s an extra $20,000 on the current $1 million average home value.

    Research also suggests the impact of interest rates across local housing markets may be strongest where housing supply is tightest and houses are already more expensive.

    Mortgages get bigger

    While lower rates reduce the cost of a given mortgage, the average mortgage size needs to grow to keep up with higher prices.

    Recall that the monthly payment associated with an 80% loan on a million-dollar home at 6% interest was $4,796. If the interest rate falls by 0.25 percentage points but house prices rise by 2%, the new monthly payment is little changed, at $4,762.

    On top of this, the 20% down payment on that new home will now have increased – by $4,000.

    Rate cuts increase borrowing power, but this can put upward pressure on house prices.
    myphotobank.com.au/Shutterstock

    Is there hope for first home buyers?

    Despite the initial excitement of lower rates, aspiring home buyers may be disappointed to see the price of their dream home climb further out of reach. Some may end up no better off than they had been previously.

    Others might try to snap up a home before lower rates are completely priced in – motivated by a fear-of-missing-out (FOMO). Research suggests it can take a year or more before house prices peak following a rate change.

    And others still may decide to keep renting for the time being. Fortunately for them, recent research shows that changes in interest rates do not materially affect the rents that landlords charge their tenants.

    Finally, one option is holding savings in the stock market while they wait, perhaps diversified via exchange-traded funds, as these assets usually rise in value following an interest rate cut.

    It’s never a good idea to panic. It’s always important to think through your options before diving into the market. And remember, our discussion here is only for general information and is not intended to be financial advice. All investments carry risk.

    James Graham has received research funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute and is a member of Sydney YIMBY.

    – ref. With interest rates on the way down, could house prices boom? Here’s what research suggests – https://theconversation.com/with-interest-rates-on-the-way-down-could-house-prices-boom-heres-what-research-suggests-257724

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: These 5 roadblocks are standing in the way of energy-efficient homes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jaime Comber, Senior Research Consultant in Energy Futures, University of Technology Sydney

    Westend61, GettyImages

    We all want homes that keep us warm in winter and cool in summer, without breaking the bank. However, Australian homes built before 2003 have a low average energy rating of 1.8 stars out of 10. This means they’re often uncomfortable to live in and expensive to run.

    There’s a strong case for a “renovation wave” of home energy upgrades across Australia. Reducing the use of fossil gas and improving the energy efficiency of existing housing by nearly 50% is also central to achieving net zero emissions by 2050.

    Energy-saving upgrades such as solar panels, batteries, insulation, draught-proofing and hot water heat pumps also reduce the cost of energy bills. So while there’s an upfront cost, upgrades can reduce household expenses in the long run.

    We wanted to find out what’s holding people back from getting energy-saving upgrades. We surveyed 100 Australian households and interviewed 19 people about their experiences. Our new research revealed five major barriers that stop these upgrades from being accessible to most households. Suppliers, governments and community organisations can all help overcome these barriers.

    Embarking on home energy upgrades can be an emotional rollercoaster ride.
    RACE for 2030

    1. Information about upgrades is confusing and overwhelming

    Households told us the amount of information out there about energy saving upgrades is overwhelming and sometimes conflicting. There are many different types of upgrades and product choices, making it challenging to identify which options provide the best value and what to do first. People found it difficult to know what information and which suppliers to trust.

    Households need clear information from a trusted source about what their homes need. Many governments internationally, such as Scotland, provide online resources and tools to provide tailored advice to help with this.

    Energy upgrade programs run by neutral community organisations and councils can also help, such as Rewiring Australia’s Electrify 2515 or Geelong Sustainability’s Electric Homes Program. These programs use their expertise to vet suppliers and ensure households receive good deals and high quality products.

    2. Homes need to engage multiple suppliers and tradespeople

    Many households worked on their home gradually, one upgrade at a time. Each upgrade involved a labour-intensive process of researching products, selecting companies, getting quotes and managing the disruptions caused by the installation. One Sydney homeowner told us:

    The process of needing both a plumber and an electrician to change to induction cooking was frustrating. [We had to] to coordinate availability times and appliance delivery.

    Australians need companies that can do multiple upgrades at once, to simplify and streamline the process. In Ireland, the government helped stimulate a market for organisations that can cover all the upgrades needed by a household.

    Ireland has “One Stop Shops” for home energy upgrades (Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland)

    3. Households are losing opportunities for straightforward upgrades

    Every year, Australians invest billions in home renovations. They spent more than A$3 billion in the December 2024 quarter alone.

    One of the best times to improve your home is during major renovations or when old appliances, such as hot water systems, break down. If you’re already facing disruptions and need to spend money, it can be an easy and more cost-effective way to increase your home’s energy efficiency at the same time.

    Yet our research found advice on energy-saving upgrades was rarely provided to people undertaking major renovations or emergency replacements unless they asked for it. Households needed to seek out builders, architects and tradespeople who specialised in sustainability to get advice on an energy-saving renovation.

    Providing energy upgrades to homes should be a standard component of modern renovations. Otherwise, households are missing out on easy and more affordable opportunities to get these upgrades.

    4. Many tradespeople lack knowledge of energy-saving upgrades

    Our research found tradespeople are the most common point of contact for households. They can be a valuable source of information and advice to facilitate upgrades. However, many households reported difficulty finding tradespeople knowledgeable about – and willing to install – energy-saving upgrades.

    Some upgrades, such as solar panels, require specialised workforces. Others, such as hot water heat pumps are usually installed by regular plumbers and electricians.

    Some tradespeople lack the knowledge to advise on energy-saving upgrades or need training to install new technologies to a high standard. This situation leaves households vulnerable to misinformation, with a shortage of skilled workers to do their upgrades.

    Tradespeople require increased support and incentives to make energy-saving measures part of their skill set. This is especially true in regional areas, where there are fewer products and workers available.

    5. The costs are too high for many households

    A final, significant barrier was the cost of home upgrades, which often caused households to drop out early in the process. Australian households, particularly those with less disposable income, need more help with the upfront cost.

    One way to do this is through targeted government rebates, which are currently only available in some regions. Another is affordable and accessible financing, like that available in Tasmania and the ACT. The national Home Energy Upgrades Fund could also be extended to make sure available finance matches the scale of the challenge.

    Also needed are long-term reforms such as mandatory disclosure of energy performance when homes are sold and minimum energy standards for rental properties, which are currently only required in some jurisdictions in Australia. When these are both addressed we can make comfortable, and affordable homes the norm rather than the exception.

    Keeping warm in winter and cool in summer is the number one motivation for energy saving upgrades.
    RACE for 2030

    A worthwhile journey

    Roadblocks aside, households also shared the joy and satisfaction of completing home energy upgrades. While the journey was often difficult, those who reached the end of the road were overwhelmingly pleased with the results. A homeowner who had installed solar panels and undertaken draught-proofing and insulation in Adelaide said:

    It’s nice not to have huge electricity bills, and but I find it’s that day to day stuff of actually being comfortable that makes the biggest difference.

    This research was undertaken by Jaime Comber, Kamyar Soleimani, Ed Langham, Nimish Biloria, Leena Thomas and Kerryn Wilmot from the University of Technology, Sydney.

    Jaime Comber received funding for this research as part of the Energy Upgrades for Australian Homes (EUAH) initiative – a national collaboration between research, industry and government partners to enable scalable, community-led energy upgrades. EUAH is funded through the RACE for 2030 cooperative research centre, which includes contributions from the NSW Government, Government of South Australia and Knauf Insulation. The project is led by Climate-KIC Australia and Monash University.

    Ed Langham undertakes contract research for government, community and consumer advocates, and the clean energy industry. This research was funded as part of the RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre’s Energy Upgrades for Australian Homes project, which is co-funded by Australian Government, NSW Government, Government of South Australia and Knauf Insulation. Ed is also affiliated with Schumacher Institute for Sustainable Systems, based in the UK.

    Nimish Biloria receives funding through the RACE for 2030 Cooperative Research Centre. This research was undertaken as part of the Energy Upgrades for Australian Homes initiative, which is funded in part by the NSW Government, the Government of South Australia, and Knauf Insulation. Before this, Nimish Biloria has received funding from various governmental bodies, not-for-profit organizations, and the Industry such as the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science, Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA), City of Sydney, AusIndustry Smart Cities and Suburbs Program, Transport for New South Wales, Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Leigh Place Aged Care, Sydney, NSW, HMI Technologies.

    – ref. These 5 roadblocks are standing in the way of energy-efficient homes – https://theconversation.com/these-5-roadblocks-are-standing-in-the-way-of-energy-efficient-homes-256906

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Police aren’t properly trained for mental health crises – but they’re often the first responders. Here’s what works better

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Panos Karanikolas, Research officer, Melbourne Social Equity Institute, The University of Melbourne

    Rosie Marinelli/Shutterstock

    In an emergency, police are often the first called to the scene. But they are rarely equipped to deal with complex mental health crises.

    Following recent parliamentary inquiries and royal commissions there has been a push – led by researchers, advocates and some senior police officials – for a shift to a health-led and paramedic-first response.

    South Australia is one of a number of states trialling a program based on a “co-responder” model. This means trained specialists accompany police to some mental health call-outs in the community.

    So, how do co-responder programs work? And are they effective? Here’s what the evidence says.

    The current situation

    Mental health legislation in all states and territories gives police the power to use “reasonable force” to transport people who “appear to have a mental illness” to hospital to prevent harm.

    In most cases, this involves police taking people experiencing mental health crises to hospital emergency departments, without help from mental health clinicians or paramedics.

    Overburdened emergency departments have long wait times for mental health and are often inadequate at responding to people experiencing distress.

    Those who need mental health support may not need a hospital stay.

    One study found only one in five (23%) of those taken to emergency by police – usually after expressing intention to self-harm – were admitted.

    The strain on police resources is also significant. For example, in New South Wales, police now respond to triple zero calls about mental health crises in the community every nine minutes (in Victoria it’s every ten).

    Criminalising mental health

    The mere presence of police alone can escalate already heightened emotional situations.

    Police frequently lack training in mental health, with combative police culture and the militarisation of police training presenting significant problems.

    Police often acknowledge they are ill-equipped to intervene in a mental health crisis.

    Yet, about one in ten people who access mental health services have previously interacted with police.

    These encounters can be risky and even deadly.

    People who experience mental health issues are over-represented in incidents of police use of force and fatal shootings.

    Police involvement can also lead to the criminalisation of people with mental health issues and disability, as they are more likely to be issued with charges and fines or be arrested.

    Yet the main reason police take people to hospital is for self-harm or suicidal distress, and most are not deemed to be of risk to others.

    What do people with mental health issues want instead?

    In our research, conducted in 2021–2022, we interviewed 20 people across Australia who’d had police intervene when they had a mental health crisis.

    Those we spoke to often had multiple experiences of police call-outs over their lifetime.

    They told us excessive use of force by police had traumatising and long-term effects. Many were subject to pepper spray, tasers, police dogs, batons, handcuffs and restraints, despite not being accused of committing criminal offences.

    For example, Alex*, said:

    I was having an anxiety attack, and they pepper sprayed me. I had bruises all over my hands from the handcuffs they put on really roughly, even though I wasn’t under arrest. Then they took me to hospital.

    In our study, people with mental health issues said they would prefer an ambulance-led response wherever possible, without police attending at all.

    They also wanted to be linked to therapeutic and community-based services, including mental health peer support, housing, disability support and family violence services.

    What are co-responder programs?

    Co-responder programs aim to de-escalate mental health incidents, reduce the number of emergency department presentations and link people experiencing mental health crises with services.

    These programs, such as the one being trialled in South Australia, mean mental health clinicians (for example, social workers, counsellors or psychologists) attend some mental health incidents alongside police.

    Peer-reviewed research shows these kinds of responses can be effective when compared to traditional police-led interventions.

    An evaluation of a co-response program in Victoria found the mental health response was quicker and higher quality than when police attended alone.

    The success of programs in the United States and Canada shows many mental health crises can safely managed without police involvement, for example by addressing issues such as homelessness and addiction with health workers, and reducing the number of arrests.

    Limited by a lack of resources

    While the evidence shows co-responder schemes are valued by people with lived experience, they are often limited by under-resourcing.

    Co-responder programs are not universally available. Often, they do not operate after usual business hours or across regions.

    There is also a lack of long-term evaluations of these programs. This means what we understand about their implementation, design and effectiveness over time can be mixed.

    More broadly, the mental health sector is facing significant and ongoing labour shortages across Australia, posing another resourcing challenge.

    How can responses to mental health crises be improved?

    Last year, the final report from the Royal Commission into Victoria’s Mental Health System recommended paramedics should act as first responders in mental health crises wherever possible, instead of police, diverting triple zero calls to Ambulance Victoria.

    However that reform has been delayed, with no indication of when it may be implemented.

    A 2023 NSW parliamentary inquiry also remarked on the need to explore reducing police involvement.

    Co-responder and ambluance-first models offer an improvement.

    But our research suggests people with lived experience of mental health issues want more than ambulances replacing the police as crisis responders.

    They need a mental health system that supports them and provides what they needed, when they need it: compassionate, timely and non-coercive responses.

    *Name has been changed.

    If this article has raised issues for you, or if you’re concerned about someone you know, call Lifeline on 13 11 14.

    Panos Karanikolas is a member of the Victorian Mental Illness Awareness Council (VMIAC). He received funding for this research from the National Disability Research Partnership as part of a partnership with VMIAC.

    Chris Maylea receives funding from the Australian Research Council, National Health and Medical Research Council, and national and state legal aid commissions.

    Hamilton Kennedy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Police aren’t properly trained for mental health crises – but they’re often the first responders. Here’s what works better – https://theconversation.com/police-arent-properly-trained-for-mental-health-crises-but-theyre-often-the-first-responders-heres-what-works-better-257641

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Three years after the Jenkins report, there is still work to be done on improving parliament culture

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maria Maley, Senior Lecturer in Politics, School of Politics and International Relations, Australian National University

    Three and a half years ago, then-sex discrimination commissioner Kate Jenkins’ Set the Standard report was handed to federal parliament, commissioned after Brittany Higgins’ allegations of sexual assault in Parliament House, which had shocked the public and politicians alike. Since then, work has been underway to implement its 28 recommendations.

    The report found unacceptable levels of sexual harassment, bullying and misconduct in parliamentary workplaces, and laid out a radical plan to create a standards regime. The plan would provide tools to deal with such conduct, and try to prevent it by changing the culture of parliament.

    In 2025, parliament’s implementation of the Jenkins review is due to be evaluated by an external independent reviewer. Have the recommendations been implemented? What are the prospects for continued reform of conduct in the parliamentary workplace? Will the election of an historic number of women into parliament create pressure for further reform?

    Action after the review

    On February 8 2022, the first sitting day of federal parliament after the Jenkins review had been handed down, both houses of parliament made an historic statement of acknowledgement and apology to the victims of misconduct in its workplace. It stated:

    We say sorry. […] This place and its members are committed to bringing about lasting and meaningful change to both culture and practice within our workplaces. We today declare our personal and collective commitment to make the changes required.

    Parliamentarians committed to implement all 28 recommendations of the Jenkins review. A cross-party body was created to lead the implementation process.

    Known as the Parliamentary Leadership Taskforce, it had members from both houses of parliament, ministers and legislators, Labor, the Coalition, the Greens and one independent parliamentarian. It worked hard for three years to design and put in place the rules and mechanisms laid out in the Jenkins review, before disbanding in September 2024.

    The magnitude of the changes parliament had to make should not be understated. Among many ground-breaking reforms, it involved developing codes of conduct and a body to enforce them by investigating complaints about breaches of the code.

    In February 2023, both houses of parliament agreed on codes of conduct. In October 2024, an Independent Parliamentary Standards Commission was established to receive complaints, investigate and make findings about misconduct. There are seven commissioners, appointed from outside parliament, who are lawyers, former public servants, tribunal members and ex-ombudsmen. For the first time, there will be external independent review of parliamentarians’ conduct.

    An independent human resources body for the parliamentary workplace was also created, known as the Parliamentary Workplace Support Service. These are huge achievements and represent historic reforms.

    In line with Jenkins’ recommendations, the taskforce committed to an external independent review of parliament’s implementation of the Jenkins report.

    But has it been effective?

    It is hard to evaluate new rules, systems and bodies that are in their infancy, but one part of the new standards architecture does not represent best practice. After the Independent Parliamentary Standards Commission has completed an investigation of a parliamentarian’s conduct, made findings and recommended sanctions, it will hand its report to the privileges committee in each house.

    The privileges committees are made up of parliamentarians, almost exclusively members of the major parties. It is up to these committees to decide on any action to be taken. We won’t know if they depart from the commission’s recommendations, as standards commission reports are not public.

    In the United Kingdom House of Commons, which represents best practice in this area, independent investigation reports are handed to a parliamentary committee called the Committee on Standards. Half the members of that committee are MPs, but half are “lay members” – that is, appointed members of the community, including lawyers and HR professionals.

    The House of Commons established its standards regime in 2018, and has reviewed and improved it over time. Lay members were placed on the committee because it was evident MPs found it difficult to judge the conduct of their peers and struggled to hold them accountable.

    Unfortunately Australia’s new standards system leaves decisions in the hands of parliamentarians, without the corrective and robustness that members of the public would provide. Will the federal parliament continue to reform and reshape its arrangements if they prove not to be robust enough?

    Ongoing leadership is needed if parliament is to continue to address conduct issues, drive culture change and refine and develop its new standards regime. Some believe the culture of parliament has improved since the Jenkins review. Others disagree.

    There are still recommendations of the review that have not been addressed. These include developing a ten-year strategy to increase diversity in the workplace, establishing a health and wellbeing service in parliament, and introducing an alcohol policy. Now that the Parliamentary Leadership Taskforce has disbanded, who will continue to advance the reform process?

    In October 2024, parliament decided to create a Parliamentary Joint Committee on Parliamentary Standards. Its functions include reviewing the operation of the new codes and the Independent Parliamentary Standards Commission.

    This committee should play a leadership role on conduct and culture issues, but its membership is tightly restricted. The government dominates positions and all members must also be members of the privileges committees. Presiding officers are not permitted to sit on the committee, despite their important leadership roles and responsibilities in parliament. Crossbenchers and independent parliamentarians are largely locked out of the committee (only two positions are reserved for them), despite the fact they have often been the leading voices calling for culture change.

    With the influx of many more women and new faces into the parliament after the election, there is an opportunity to press for continued reform and for membership of the joint committee to include diverse voices from across the parliament.

    In 2021 Maria Maley worked as a consultant to the Jenkins Review.

    – ref. Three years after the Jenkins report, there is still work to be done on improving parliament culture – https://theconversation.com/three-years-after-the-jenkins-report-there-is-still-work-to-be-done-on-improving-parliament-culture-257810

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s plan to protect its trade in war is flawed. We can’t do it with nuclear submarines

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Albert Palazzo, Adjunct Professor in the School of Humanities and Social Sciences at UNSW Canberra, UNSW Sydney

    If war breaks out someday between the United States and China, one of the major concerns for Australia is the impact on its trade.

    Our trade routes are long and exposed. Every year, thousands of merchant ships — bulk carriers, tankers, container ships and other types — visit Australian ports to deliver imported goods and pick up exports for delivery at distant ports.

    When a cargo ship of petroleum leaves the Persian Gulf for refining in East Asia, then sails for Australia, the total trip is approximately 20,000 kilometres. The ship passes through lonely stretches of sea and numerous choke points, such as the Strait of Malacca in Southeast Asia, often within range of missiles and other weapons.

    Such attacks could come from Chinese ships in the event of a war, or as we’ve seen in the Middle East with the Houthi rebels, they could also come from militants seeking to disrupt global shipping.

    Australia’s current defence strategy cites the security of our “sea lines of communication and maritime trade” as a priority. The aim is to prevent an adversary from cutting off critical supplies to our continent in a war.

    To achieve this, the government has embarked on the lengthy process of expanding the Royal Australian Navy surface and sub-surface fleet, including the acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines.

    As I explain in my forthcoming book, The Big Fix: Rebuilding Australia’s National Security, the problem with the government’s maritime plan is that it is built on a deeply flawed foundation and cannot deliver what it promises.

    A flawed maritime plan

    Defence documents insist on a need for the Australian Defence Force to be able to project naval power far from Australia’s shores in order to protect the nation’s trade. The presence of these warships would ostensibly deter attacks on our vital shipping.

    However, those who developed the maritime plan do not appear to have considered whether the merchant ships delivering this trade would continue to sail to Australia in the event of a war — presumably with China.

    The reality is that Australia’s A$1.2 trillion of exports and imports are carried in ships owned by non-Australian companies, flying foreign flags and largely crewed by citizens of other countries.

    Decisions about whether to continue sailing to Australia during a conflict would be made in overseas boardrooms and capitals. The Australian government has no leverage to force the owners of these ships to continue to service our continent. Australia’s national interests may well not be the paramount concern.

    Nor does the Australian government have the option to turn to Australian-flagged vessels. Australia’s shipping list contains only a handful of domestically owned and flagged cargo ships available in case of war.

    In fact, the biggest vessel (by length) that the government could take into service is the Spirit of Tasmania IV ferry.

    If all goes according to schedule, at some point in the 2040s, Australia will have at most 26 surface warships and perhaps eight nuclear-powered submarines the navy hopes to acquire through the AUKUS deal.

    Due to training and maintenance requirements, the total number of vessels available at any one time would be more on the order of ten.

    In other words, the government’s future maritime plan — costing hundreds of billion dollars — may result in just ten available ships at any given time to protect the nation’s trade over thousands of kilometres.

    What could work instead

    Fortunately, Australia has other options for safeguarding its trade that don’t necessitate the building of warships.

    Our first investment in security should be diplomatic. The government should prioritise its investment in diplomacy across the region to promote security, including trade security.

    Regional countries are best placed to secure the waterways around Australia, particularly from the most likely future threat: Houthi-like militants.

    The Australian government should also modernise its shipping regulations and include in the budget provisions for war-risk insurance. Such insurance could compensate owners for the potential loss of ships and cargoes as an inducement for them to sail to and from Australia during war.

    The government must also encourage greater investment in our national resilience. Currently, the biggest risk during a conflict is an interruption to the nation’s liquid fuel supply. We must greatly expand our on-shore reserves of fossil fuels in the short term, while initiating a nation-building project to electrify the economy in the long term. Electrification would eliminate a considerable vulnerability to national security.



    Read more:
    Fuel shortages and bare pharmacies: we need to talk about what a possible war with China could look like

    Additionally, the government should identify and subsidise vital industries, such as fertilisers and certain medicines, which are essential to the continued functioning of our society in the event of a war. This would reduce our reliance on imports of critical materials.

    Lastly, Australian industries, with the government’s assistance, should further diversify their trading partners to reduce over-dependence on one or two main destinations.

    Trade is undoubtedly important to Australia and the government is correct to protect it. But it is also true that not all security problems are best answered by the military.

    This is particularly important since the size of our planned fleet is obviously insufficient for the enormous task it will face. Either Australia invests in impossibly large numbers of warships or it takes a different path.

    The art of war requires a balance between the desired ends and the means to achieve them. This simple statement underpins the formation of all good strategy, which a state ignores at its peril.

    Unfortunately, in the case of the nation’s maritime plan, the ends and means are seriously out of whack. Instead of setting itself up for failure, the government needs to put aside its ineffectual maritime plan and choose the means that do align with the ends. Only then will it be possible to protect Australia’s trade.

    Albert Palazzo was the long-serving director of War Studies for the Australian Army.

    – ref. Australia’s plan to protect its trade in war is flawed. We can’t do it with nuclear submarines – https://theconversation.com/australias-plan-to-protect-its-trade-in-war-is-flawed-we-cant-do-it-with-nuclear-submarines-256557

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hurricane season is here, but FEMA’s policy change could leave low-income areas less protected

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ivis García, Associate Professor of Landscape Architecture and Urban Planning, Texas A&M University

    Hurricane Harvey inundated the Cottage Grove neighborhood of Houston in 2018. Scott Olson/Getty Images

    When powerful storms hit your city, which neighborhoods are most likely to flood? In many cities, they’re typically low-income areas. They may have poor drainage, or they lack protections such as seawalls.

    New Orleans’ Lower Ninth Ward, where hundreds of people died when Hurricane Katrina broke a levee in 2005, and Houston’s Kashmere Gardens, flooded by Hurricane Harvey in 2017, are just two among many examples.

    With those disasters in mind, the Federal Emergency Management Agency made a big change to its Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide in 2023. The agency began encouraging cities, towns and counties to address equity in their hazard mitigation plans, which outline how they will reduce disaster risk.

    Local governments have an incentive to follow those federal guidelines: Those that want to receive FEMA hazard mitigation assistance – money which can be used to repair aging infrastructure like roads, bridges and flood barriers – or funding from other programs such as dam rehabilitation have to develop local mitigation plans and update them every five years.

    Hurricane Irma flooded Immokalee, Fla., in 2017. The community, home to many farmworkers, had infrastructure problems before the storm, and recovery was slow.
    AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

    The new guidance required cities to both consider social vulnerability among neighborhoods in their disaster mitigation planning and involve socially vulnerable communities in those discussions in ways they hadn’t before.

    However, as the U.S. heads into what forecasters predict will be an active 2025 hurricane season, that guidance has changed again. The Trump administration’s new FEMA Local Mitigation Planning Policy Guide 2025 talks about public involvement in planning but strips any mention of equity, income or social vulnerability. It mentions using “projections for the future” to plan but removes references to climate change.

    Who is most at risk in hurricanes, and why

    Hurricanes and other storms that cause flooding don’t affect everyone in the same way.

    A legacy of redlining and discrimination in many U.S. cities left poor and minority families living in often risky areas. These neighborhoods also tend to have poorer infrastructure.

    In the past, local mitigation plans just focused on fixing roads or protecting property in general from storm damage, without recognizing that socially vulnerable groups, such as low-income or elderly populations, were more likely to be hardest hit and take much longer to recover.

    Low-income neighborhoods in Puerto Rico have been slow to recover from 2017’s Hurricane Maria.
    Ivis Garcia

    The FEMA 2023 guidance encouraged communities to consider both the highest risks and which neighborhoods would be least able to respond in a disaster and address their needs.

    The equity requirement was designed to ensure that local plans didn’t just protect those with the most wealth or political influence but considered who needs the help most. That might mean providing information in multiple languages in emergency alerts or investing in flood prevention in neighborhoods with aging infrastructure like roads, bridges and flood barriers.

    How New York City’s 2024 plan helped

    New York City’s 2024 Hazard Mitigation Plan, for example, included a thorough social vulnerability assessment to identify neighborhoods with high percentages of people who were living in poverty or were older, disabled or weren’t fluent in English.

    Knowing where disaster risk and social vulnerability overlapped allowed the city to boost investments in flood protection, emergency communication and cooling centers during summer heat in neighborhoods such as the South Bronx and East Harlem. These neighborhoods historically faced some of the greatest risks from disasters but saw little investment.

    The NYC Mayor’s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice mapped the risk of storm surge flooding in the 2020s (purple) and 2080s (dark blue), and neighborhoods that fall under the city’s ‘disadvantaged communities’ criteria. A 1% risk means a 1% of chance of flooding in any given year, also referred to as a 100-year flood risk.
    NYC Mayor’s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice

    Further, New York’s plan calls for expanding outreach and early warning systems in multiple languages and enhancing infrastructure in areas with high concentrations of Spanish speakers. These kinds of changes help ensure that vulnerable residents are more likely to be better protected when disaster strikes.

    Why is FEMA dropping that emphasis now?

    FEMA’s reasoning for the guidance change in 2025: make it quicker and easier to get plans approved and unlock federal funding for projects like flood barriers, storm shelters and buyouts in areas at high risk of damage.

    It’s a pragmatic move, but one that raises big questions about whether residents who are least able to help themselves will be overlooked again when the next disaster strikes.

    And FEMA isn’t alone — other agencies, like the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and its Community Development Block Grant – Disaster Recovery program, have made similar changes to their own disaster planning rules. Community Development Block Grant funds for disaster recovery are flexible and can be used for things like rebuilding homes and businesses, restoring infrastructure and helping local economies recover.

    What this means for low-income areas

    Some experts worry that the changes might mean low-income and other at-risk communities will be ignored again when cities develop their next five-year mitigation plans. Research from the Government Accountability Office shows that when something is required by law, it gets done. When it’s just a suggestion, it’s easy to skip, especially in places with fewer resources or less political will to help.

    But the short-lived rules may have already helped in one important way: They made cities and states pay attention to social vulnerability, climate change and the needs of all their residents.

    Many local leaders have learned the value of using data to understand where socially vulnerable residents face high disaster risks. And they have a model now for involving communities in decision-making. Even if those steps are no longer required, the hope is that these good habits will stick.

    Where and how communities invest in disaster protection affects who stays safe and who faces higher risks from flooding, hurricanes and other disasters. When government policy shifts, it’s not just about paperwork – it’s about real people.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Hurricane season is here, but FEMA’s policy change could leave low-income areas less protected – https://theconversation.com/hurricane-season-is-here-but-femas-policy-change-could-leave-low-income-areas-less-protected-256985

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Detroit’s population grew in 2023, 2024 − a strategy to welcome immigrants helps explain the turnaround from decades of population decline

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul N. McDaniel, Associate Professor of Geography, Kennesaw State University

    The Mexican-American community in southwest Detroit held a rally in March 2025, asking ICE to leave the immigrant community alone. Jim West/UCG/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    Detroit’s population grew in 2024 for the second year in a row. This is a remarkable comeback after decades of population decline in the Motor City.

    What explains the turnaround? One factor may be Detroit’s efforts to attract and settle immigrants.

    These efforts continue despite a dramatic national shift in tone toward new arrivals. This includes executive orders from the second Trump administration targeting immigrant communities, international students and their universities, and cities in which immigrants live.

    We study urban geography and immigrant integration. Despite these federal policy shifts, our own research and that of others has found that local leaders in cities across the U.S. are actively working to bring immigrants in and help them become part of local communities, generally for economic reasons.

    Our recent publications on immigrant integration and immigrant community engagement show how and why cities adapt to changes in their population and economies.

    Detroit and other former immigrant gateway metro areas such as Buffalo, New York; Cleveland, Ohio; Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania; and St. Louis, Missouri experienced significant immigration in the early 20th century. These population booms were followed by a period of decline in immigration numbers.

    Now these cities are using branding strategies to construct inclusive identities designed to attract and retain immigrants. It may be surprising to think of a city branding itself, but local governments often work with private nonprofits to shape and manage their city’s image. They try to build a unique and desirable identity for the city, differentiate it from competitors, and attract new businesses, residents and tourists this way.

    Here are three reasons why Detroit and other cities want to welcome immigrants:

    1. Encouraging economic growth and attracting talent

    Immigration has a positive impact on the economy, research shows.

    Local leaders in Detroit recognize that in a global economy, a thriving industrial sector and robust labor market are linked to the contributions of immigrant communities. They also understand that the growth of these communities brings positive economic ripple effects.

    Immigrants are more likely than the general population to own their own businesses. Organizations such as Global Detroit encourage entrepreneurship through programs such as the Global Talent Retention Initiative, Global Talent Accelerator and Global Entrepreneur in Residence and provide resources for small businesses.

    Immigrants also fill labor needs, from high-tech fields such as engineering and research to manual labor sectors such as construction and food service.

    The City of Detroit Office of Immigrant Affairs promotes economic development and immigrant integration through education, English as a second language programs, economic empowerment and community resources.

    These efforts are paying off by attracting immigrants to the city.

    This economic impact extends to tourism as well. The region’s marketing campaigns embracing diversity shape how visitors perceive the region. The Detroit Metro Convention & Visitors Bureau spotlights the unique experiences the city’s diverse neighborhoods offer to tourists.

    2. Enhancing community and regional resilience

    Regional resilience describes a region’s ability to withstand and adapt to challenges such as economic shocks and natural disasters. Cities like Detroit that are still trying to bounce back from deindustrialization know from experience how critical this is.

    Immigration contributes to regional resilience, research shows. In addition to supporting local economies and strengthening the labor force, the arrival of immigrants in Detroit has helped offset native-born population decline, stabilizing the overall population and bolstering local tax bases.

    According to our analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data, the Detroit-Warren-Dearborn metro area grew by 1.2%, from a total population of 4,291,843 in 2010 to 4,342,304 in 2023.

    According to U.S. Census Bureau estimates, the Detroit metro area’s native-born population decreased by 58,693 people during that 13-year period, while the foreign-born population increased by 109,154. The top five countries of origin for immigrants in the metro area are India, Iraq, Mexico, Yemen and Lebanon.

    From 2023 to 2024, the metro area’s population gained 40,347 immigrants and lost 11,626 native born residents – resulting in a population gain of 28,721.

    Efforts to welcome immigrants in Detroit and its surrounding communities contributed to this trend of immigrant population growth offsetting overall population decline.

    3. Promoting social cohesion and enhanced civic engagement

    Successful place brands are rooted in inclusion and a strong civil society. Detroit’s rich tapestry of cultures in areas such as Dearborn and Hamtramck creates a vibrant regional identity.

    Organizations such as Global Detroit’s Welcoming Michigan actively support local grassroots efforts to build mutual respect and ensure that immigrants are able to participate fully in the social, civic and economic fabric of their hometowns.

    Examples include Global Detroit’s Social Cohesion Initiative, Common Bond and Opportunity Neighborhoods. These initiatives help bring neighborhood residents of various backgrounds together to share their cultures, support each other’s small businesses and socialize. Such programs strengthen the region’s democratic foundations and enhance its appeal as a welcoming and inclusive place to live.

    Forging a way forward

    Detroit has found that welcoming immigrants and integrating them into the life of the city is one way to navigate the economic, political and cultural challenges it faces.

    And it is not alone in embracing this strategy. Other cities practicing similar strategies include Baltimore; Boise, Idaho; Charlotte, North Carolina; Dallas; Dayton, Ohio; Louisville, Kentucky; New Orleans; Pittsburgh; Roanoke, Virginia; and Salt Lake City.

    Although not all cities choose to pursue such strategies, in those that do, local leaders signal a region ready for a globalized future.

    Paul N. McDaniel previously received funding from the National Geographic Society, served on the Content Advisory Board for the Welcoming Standard and on the Steering Committee for Welcoming America’s One Region Initiative, and is a member of the American Association of Geographers.

    Darlene Xiomara Rodriguez was co-PI on funding received from the National Geographic Society and served on the national pilot program with Welcoming America One Region Initiative’s Steering Committee and Program Evaluation Team.

    – ref. Detroit’s population grew in 2023, 2024 − a strategy to welcome immigrants helps explain the turnaround from decades of population decline – https://theconversation.com/detroits-population-grew-in-2023-2024-a-strategy-to-welcome-immigrants-helps-explain-the-turnaround-from-decades-of-population-decline-255557

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Shock NSW Senate result as One Nation beats Labor to win final seat

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    The button was pressed to electronically distribute preferences for the New South Wales Senate today. All analysts expected Labor to win the final seat, for a three Labor, two Coalition, one Green result. Instead, One Nation won the final seat, for a two Labor, two Coalition, one Green and one One Nation result. This is a One Nation gain from the Coalition.

    Six of the 12 senators for each state and all four territory senators were up for election on May 3. Changes in state senate representation are measured against 2019, the last time these senators were up for election. State senators elected at this election will start their six-year terms on July 1.

    Senators are elected by proportional representation in their jurisdictions with preferences. At a half-Senate election, with six senators in each state up for election, a quota is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. For the territories, a quota is one-third or 33.3%.

    Final primary votes in NSW gave Labor 2.63 quotas, the Coalition 2.06, the Greens 0.78, One Nation 0.42, Legalise Cannabis 0.24, Trumpet of Patriots 0.17, the Libertarians 0.13 and Family First 0.11. One Nation defeated Labor’s third at the final count by 0.89 quotas to 0.87.

    Labor was hurt by the Greens being well short of quota, and getting preferences from left sources that would otherwise have gone to Labor, while right-wing parties united behind One Nation. The Greens only crossed quota at the second last count, and their small surplus wasn’t enough for Labor to catch One Nation.

    I covered Senate results from other states and territories earlier and this week.

    In the later piece, I talked about the two-party count. This isn’t finished yet in NSW or Victoria, but one side of politics usually needs about 57% of the two-party vote in a state to win four of the six senators (four quotas). This is very difficult to achieve.

    In Tasmania, Labor won the two-party count by over 63–37, but missed out on three senators owing to Jacqui Lambie. In South Australia, Labor won by over 59–41 and the left won a 4–2 Senate split. In Victoria, Labor leads by nearly 57–43, and the left won a 4–2 Senate split. In Western Australia and NSW, Labor won by less than 56–44 and the Senate was tied 3–3 between left and right.

    Out of the 40 Senate seats that were up at this election, Labor won 16 (up three), the Coalition 13 (down five), the Greens six (steady), One Nation three (up two) and Lambie and David Pocock one each (both steady). The Coalition lost senators in all mainland states, with Labor gaining in Victoria, South Australia and Queensland, and One Nation in NSW and WA.

    The 36 state senators elected in 2022 won’t be up for election until 2028. For the whole Senate, Labor has 28 out of 76, the Coalition 27, the Greens 11, One Nation four and there are six others. Labor will need either the Greens or the Coalition to reach the 39 votes needed for a Senate majority.

    In 2022, the United Australia Party (UAP) won a seat in Victoria. During the last term, Lidia Thorpe defected from the Greens, Fatima Payman from Labor and Tammy Tyrrell from the Jacqui Lambie Network. The six others are these four, Pocock and Lambie.

    Counting Thorpe, Payman and Pocock as left and the UAP as right, the left overall has a 42–32 Senate majority, with two others (Lambie and Tyrrell).

    National Senate primaries and results by state

    Nationally, Labor won 35.1% of the Senate vote (up 5.0% since 2022), the Coalition 29.9% (down 4.4%), the Greens 11.7% (down 0.9%), One Nation 5.7% (up 1.4%), Legalise Cannabis 3.5% (up 0.2%), Trumpet of Patriots 2.6% and Family First 1.5%.

    Labor won 34.6% nationally in the House of Representatives, so their Senate vote was 0.5% higher than in the House. It’s likely the lack of a Teal option helped Labor in the Senate.

    This table shows the senators elected in each state and territory in 2025, with the seat share and vote share at the bottom. Despite the losses in NSW and WA, Labor and the Greens are overrepresented in the Senate relative to vote share.

    Others are greatly underrepresented, but this is because most other parties are either left or right-wing, and their preferences go to Labor, the Greens, the Coalition or One Nation rather than to more others.

    For the combined left to lose control of the Senate in 2028, they would need to lose four seats. The only seat that looks vulnerable is the WA seat won by Payman for Labor in 2022. Even if the Coalition wins in 2028, the Senate is likely to be hostile to the Coalition.

    At a double dissolution election, all senators are up for election at the same time. If the Coalition wins in 2028, a double dissolution would be an option to seek to change a hostile Senate.

    Preference distributions for WA and Queensland

    Final WA primary votes gave Labor 2.53 quotas, the Liberals 1.86, the Greens 0.90, One Nation 0.41, Legalise Cannabis 0.28, the Nationals 0.25 and Australian Christians 0.19.

    One Nation defeated Labor’s third at the final count by 0.90 quotas to 0.86. When the Nationals were excluded, the Liberals got a large surplus. As in Victoria, Liberal preferences heavily favoured One Nation over Labor and Legalise Cannabis.

    But Legalise Cannabis preferences were not as good for Labor as in Victoria, with Labor winning these preferences by 13 points over One Nation, rather than 24 points in Victoria.

    Final Queensland primary votes gave the Liberal National Party 2.17 quotas, Labor 2.13, the Greens 0.73, One Nation 0.50, Gerard Rennick 0.33, Trumpet of Patriots 0.26 and Legalise Cannabis 0.25.

    Both the Greens and One Nation easily reached a quota on the distribution of preferences, with Rennick finishing far behind on 0.55 quotas.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Shock NSW Senate result as One Nation beats Labor to win final seat – https://theconversation.com/shock-nsw-senate-result-as-one-nation-beats-labor-to-win-final-seat-257888

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: GPs will be a great help for managing ADHD medications. But many patients will still need specialists

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Guastella, Professor and Clinical Psychologist, Michael Crouch Chair in Child and Youth Mental Health, University of Sydney

    The New South Wales government this week announced reforms that will allow some GPs to treat and potentially diagnose attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

    This aims to make ADHD care more accessible and less expensive and follows changes in Western Australia and Queensland, which have increased GPs’ role in diagnosing and prescribing for ADHD.

    Previously, only specialists (usually paediatricians and psychiatrists) could diagnose ADHD and prescribe the most commonly used ADHD stimulant medications.

    This reform comes on the back of evidence of extensive wait times for ADHD care and costs too high for many people.

    But while up-skilling GPs to treat ADHD will benefit many patients, some people with more complex cases will still need to see a specialist.

    What’s planned for NSW?

    Under this new framework, the NSW government proposes a two-stage plan.

    In phase one, around 1,000 GPs will be trained to support the ongoing prescribing of ADHD medications.

    In phase two a smaller number, about 100 GPs, will receive more intensive training to conduct ADHD assessments, make diagnoses and initiate ADHD medications.

    For phase two the initial focus will be on children and adolescents and then the trial will extend to adults.

    Why a diagnosis is crucial for people with ADHD

    The recent Senate inquiry into ADHD highlighted growing awareness about the daily struggles of people with ADHD across Australia.

    People with ADHD have serious difficulties with attention, impulsivity and hyperactivity, which impact across the lifespan and many settings where people live, learn, work and play.

    ADHD is linked to many poor outcomes and is even associated with higher rates of accidental injury and death.

    ADHD treatments, such as stimulant medication, has been shown be safe, effective and to substantially lower risks of negative outcomes. But to receive these treatments, a person needs to first receive a diagnosis.

    GPs can play an important role managing ADHD

    There is also no question that GPs are more accessible than specialists, both in terms of availability and cost.

    They already provide ongoing management for a wide range of chronic medical conditions such as diabetes, high blood pressure and obesity. They are highly skilled in monitoring outcomes and adjusting treatments.

    With the right training, they bring many transferable skills to ADHD care. Increasing their ability to take over ongoing prescribing for people diagnosed and stabilised on treatment is low risk and has shown to be effective in a range of studies.

    However, although the proposal to increase the role of GPs in ADHD care is a step in the right direction, it is not without challenges.

    GPs may struggle to assess complex patients

    Collaborative care involves general practitioners working with specialists and specialist teams to provide care. If GPs don’t have specialists to rely on for expert advice about ongoing management, many will choose not to provide ADHD care. Ongoing support and strong links between specialist and primary care services will be essential.

    GPs may also struggle to assess and diagnose complex cases.

    The vast majority of people with ADHD will have other mental health conditions, but some of these other conditions (such as anxiety conditions) can also result in symptoms that appear like ADHD.

    For these complex situations, specialist services with multidisciplinary teams of doctors and allied health providers (such as psychologists and occupational therapists) will still be needed.



    Read more:
    Wondering about ADHD, autism and your child’s development? What to know about getting a neurodevelopmental assessment

    To ensure high-quality care and reduce the potential for misdiagnosis and incorrect treatment, it will be even more important that specialists are available to provide additional services when required.

    There is little detail currently in the NSW proposal about how specialist multidisciplinary services will be supported to ensure this happens. And funding models for this will need to be established to support existing guidelines.

    Bringing GPs into the assessment and diagnosis to initiate treatment is positive but comes with added pressures to manage assessment and treatment.

    There are many cases in the media of poor diagnostic process, where patients were misdiagnosed with conditions such as ADHD after inadequate assessments. These practices may be driven by financial rewards and a poor application of evidence-based guidelines.

    Sometimes teams of clinicians and allied health providers will be needed for a diagnosis.
    Alex and Maria photo/Shutterstock

    Could this lead to over-diagnosis? Or correct under-diagnosis?

    In Australia, the debate about whether ADHD is under- or over-diagnosed is ongoing. There reality is that there is almost certainly a mixture of both.

    The real rates of ADHD are estimated at around 7% in Australian children and 2.5% in adults. While these rates have remained stable for many years, the rates of clinical diagnosis and treatment have increased dramatically, particularly in young women.

    Around 6% of children and adolescents currently receive ADHD medications, similar to the actual rates of ADHD in the population. For adults, the rates of ADHD medication use remain low for those over 45 years. For those between 18 and 44 years, rates now sit at around 2%.

    One interpretation of these figures is that most children, adolescents and adults with ADHD are now getting the support they need.

    However, if we remember the strong evidence that many Australians are struggling to access ADHD care, particularly in under-resourced, regional and remote areas, the more likely answer is that a combination of “misdiagnosis” and “missed diagnosis” means that sometimes diagnoses are not done correctly.

    This highlights the importance of focusing on the need for accurate assessment as the cornerstone of high quality ADHD care. In its answer to the question of who should assess and diagnose ADHD, the Australian ADHD guideline focuses on training and skills rather than which profession conducts the assessment.

    There is no reason that GPs cannot develop these skills, but they will require adequate training and ongoing support to do so, and they will need time to commit to these assessments.

    Finally, we need to make sure medication is not the only option available. Research shows ADHD medications provide effective treatment. But they should never be the only form of treatment offered.

    Sadly, reports show medical treatments are relied upon more frequently in more disadvantaged communities where access to other supports can be difficult.

    These reforms will do little to increase access to psychological and allied health supports to ensure the right care can be provided to people with ADHD.



    Read more:
    GPs could improve access to ADHD treatment. But we still need specialists to diagnose and start medication

    Adam Guastella receives funding from the NSW Government for the evaluation of mental health supports provided to children and families in health services. He has received funding from research agencies (ARC, NHMRC, MRFF) for the evaluation of assessment and supports related to neurodevelopmental conditions and for independent and sponsored clinical trials for the evaluation medical and psychological therapies. He is affiliated with Neurodevelopment Australia.

    David Coghill has been a consultant for with Takeda, Medice, Servier, Novartis. He receives research funding from the NHMRC and royalties from Oxford University Press and Cambridge University Press. He is the president of Australasian ADHD Professional Association.

    – ref. GPs will be a great help for managing ADHD medications. But many patients will still need specialists – https://theconversation.com/gps-will-be-a-great-help-for-managing-adhd-medications-but-many-patients-will-still-need-specialists-257610

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Will elections for judges make Mexico the ‘most democratic country in the world’? Critics fear the opposite

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Luis Gómez Romero, Senior Lecturer in Human Rights, Constitutional Law and Legal Theory, University of Wollongong

    On Sunday, Mexico will hold an unprecedented election, becoming the first country in the world to allow voters to elect judges at every level.

    Voters will elect approximately half the judges in the country on June 1 – from the nine members of the Supreme Court down to 850 federal judges and thousands more at lower levels. In 2027, a second vote will see the rest of Mexico’s judiciary elected.

    As part of the overhaul, the country’s merit-based, career judiciary system will be abolished. Instead, all judges will serve nine-year terms, renewable by popular vote.

    The election had been championed by former president Andrés Manuel López Obrador and embraced by his successor, Claudia Sheinbaum, who took office in October.

    Sheinbaum has proclaimed Mexico will be “the most democratic country in the world” because the people will now choose all three branches of government.

    Critics are not so sure. Some are calling the process a cynical farce. Others warn it will concentrate power in Morena, the ruling party, and its political allies, dismantling the country’s system of checks and balances.

    Critics also warn that inexperienced judges could be elected, or those who could be influenced by organised crime. Some candidates themselves have been investigated for crimes, and at least two are former defence attorneys for drug cartels.

    Former president Ernesto Zedillo, currently director at the Yale Centre for the Study of Globalisation, has gone so far as to declare that democracy itself “has come to an end” in Mexico.

    Why reform the judiciary?

    During his time in office from 2018–2024, López Obrador waged a rhetorical battle with Mexico’s courts, accusing judges of serving the elites and blocking his agenda.

    In truth, what irked López Obrador was the fact the courts wielded the power to review and restrain his actions through constitutional oversight.

    Sheinbaum seems to share his hostility towards the judiciary. Arturo Zaldívar, a former Supreme Court chief justice who designed the judicial reform system and later joined Sheinbaum’s cabinet, has accused the outgoing chief justice, Norma Piña, of being “a force of opposition allied with the oligarchy”.

    In September 2024, Morena used its congressional super-majority to ram through a series of constitutional amendments to enact the judicial reform.

    In response, judges walked off the job. Court staff, lawyers and law students took to the streets in support of their strike, some carrying banners reading “justice is not a popularity contest”.

    Experts note the reform does nothing to fix Mexico’s real justice problems – the rampant corruption and abuse that plagues the system. The institutions that allow criminals to act with impunity are not the courts, but the prosecutors and police.

    Human Rights Watch reports that nearly half of Mexicans have “little or very little confidence” in the country’s justice authorities. Nine in ten Mexicans don’t even bother to report crimes.

    The perils of judicial elections

    Electing judges is an idea fraught with peril. International human rights law treats an independent judiciary as a basic human right. Article 8 of the 1978 American Convention on Human Rights – an international treaty for North, Central and South America – guarantees every person “a hearing by a competent, independent and impartial tribunal.”

    Popular elections invite precisely the opposite. As UN experts caution, election campaigns will inevitably inject “political loyalty or alignment with party interests” into judge selection, rather than competence and impartiality.

    In addition, leading legal theorists have long warned that politicising the judiciary undermines the rule of law.

    US jurist Ronald Dworkin argued judges must decide according to principles – not political winds. Italian jurist Luigi Ferrajoli’s notion of a “guarantee-based” democracy – which is hugely influential in Latin America – likewise insists judges be insulated from party bargaining.

    Even in the United States, where some states hold judicial elections, scholars lament their corrosive effects.

    As one study notes:

    Wealthy people and corporations can pump lots of money […] to elect and reelect judges who decide cases the way they want.

    Opponents of billionaire Elon Musk critiqued his decision this year to pour US$21 million (A$33 million) into the campaign of a conservative candidate for the Wisconsin Supreme Court. In a comment he posted on X, Musk said he didn’t expect to win but “there is value to losing a piece for positional gain.”

    Bolivia offers another cautionary tale. Beginning in 2011, Bolivia has held elections for the judges on its top courts in an effort to “decolonise” the justice system and fight corruption.

    In practice, though, only judges pre-approved by the ruling party’s congressional majority make the ballot. Voters, too, know little about the candidates. Turnout is very low.

    Courts increasingly under attack

    Mexico’s justice system, indeed, needs reform. But its multiple problems will not be solved with the wholesale politicisation of the courts.

    As Argentine scholar Roberto Gargarella bluntly observes, electing judges in this way is “one of the greatest institutional tragedies of our time.”

    Mexico’s reform effort threatens to turn the courts into just another party apparatus. In that sense, Mexico joins a disturbing global trend. From Washington to Brasília, populist leaders are increasingly attacking the courts as the enemies of the people.

    With courts in Mexico potentially beholden to the government or influenced by organised crime, neutral judges may become much harder to find. If history teaches anything, it’s that the night of authoritarianism grows darker when the last judges are gone.

    Luis Gómez Romero does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Will elections for judges make Mexico the ‘most democratic country in the world’? Critics fear the opposite – https://theconversation.com/will-elections-for-judges-make-mexico-the-most-democratic-country-in-the-world-critics-fear-the-opposite-257730

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is mantle cell lymphoma? Magda Szubanski’s ‘rare and fast-moving’ cancer, explained

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John (Eddie) La Marca, Senior Research Officer, Blood Cells and Blood Cancer, WEHI (Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research)

    Lisa Maree Williams/Getty

    Beloved Australian actor, Magda Szubanski, has revealed she’s been diagnosed with a “very rare, very aggressive, very serious” blood cancer called mantle cell lymphoma.

    In a post on social media on Thursday, Szubanski said she would be starting treatment in a few weeks for the stage 4 cancer, which she called “one of the nasty ones, unfortunately”.

    So, what is mantle cell lymphoma? And how is it treated?

    What is mantle cell lymphoma?

    There are more than 100 subtypes of blood cancers, but they are commonly divided into one of two groups. These are based on where they originate: leukaemias develop in the bone marrow, and lymphomas develop in the lymphatic system.

    Lymphomas develop from white blood cells (lymphocytes), which circulate in the blood and lymphatic system and help fight infection.

    You may not have heard of the lymphatic system, but it plays a key role in your immune response.

    The lymphatic circulatory system is responsible for transporting fluids (lymph) around your body. Lymph comes from blood plasma, and helps remove waste from your tissues.

    As part of the lymphatic system, tissues like the spleen and thymus help produce many of the immune cells you use to fight infections.

    These cells are then housed in specialised organs called lymph nodes – small pea-sized glands located throughout your body.

    The lymphatic system plays a key role in your body’s immune response.
    Clash_Gene/Shutterstock

    Lymph nodes are kind of like the “war room” of your immune system.

    Your body contains hundreds of lymph nodes, and each contains millions of lymphocytes. These include the T and B cells – the main fighting cells in adaptive immunity.

    If B cells in an area of the lymph node known as the “mantle zone” become cancerous, it is called mantle cell lymphoma.

    How rare is it?

    In 2020, there were 330 cases of mantle cell lymphoma diagnosed in Australia, accounting for a small fraction (5%) of lymphoma cases.

    Overall, lymphomas account for around one in twenty new cancer diagnoses. This makes mantle cell lymphoma quite rare.

    Mantle cell lymphoma is about three times more common in men than in women, and mostly affects people over the age of 60.

    Is there a cure?

    Unfortunately, mantle cell lymphoma is largely considered incurable with the therapies currently available.

    Like many cancers, mantle cell lymphoma can vary in how quickly it develops and its severity.

    As Szubanski’s cancer has been described as “fast-moving” and is already stage 4, it appears that it is a more serious case.

    Stage 4 is the most advanced stage – meaning the cancer has spread (metastasised) to other tissues.

    Treatment at this stage can be more complicated than when the cancer is caught earlier. But treatment can still help people go on to live for many years.

    What does treatment involve?

    In her social media post, Szubanski said she will be receiving “one of the best treatments available (the Nordic protocol)”.

    This is one of the most common treatments for an aggressive lymphoma.

    The main component is “R-CHOP” – a combination therapy. It involves a mixture of different drugs, including chemotherapy, to attack the cancer from multiple angles at the same time.

    Different strengths of the drugs can be used (the maximum strength is sometimes called R-maxi-CHOP).

    A stem cell transplantation may also be included in the regimen.

    How effective this treatment is will depend on many different factors, including the type and stage of the lymphoma.

    The aim is to kill as many cancer cells as possible, and therefore extend a patient’s life for as long as possible.

    Therapy also focuses on providing a high quality-of-life for patients.

    How is it diagnosed?

    Szubanski’s mantle cell lymphoma was detected during a breast cancer screen where, she says, “they found my lymph nodes were up”.

    Imaging techniques, such as a mammogram or MRI, may detect tell-tale signs of lymphoma, such as swollen lymph nodes.

    However a biopsy – a small sample of tissue from the affected area – would then be required to confirm the presence of cancer cells and identify what type.

    Blood cancer symptoms can be vague, but it’s good to know what to look for.

    As well as swollen lymph nodes, symptoms of lymphoma include nausea, tiredness, loss of appetite, fevers, gastrointestinal issues, unexplained weight loss, and night sweats.

    If you have any concerns, you should consult a doctor.

    John (Eddie) La Marca receives funding from Cancer Council Victoria. He is affiliated with the Olivia Newton-John Cancer Research Institute and the Walter and Eliza Hall Institute of Medical Research.

    Sarah Diepstraten receives funding from Cure Cancer Australia and My Room Children’s Cancer Charity.

    – ref. What is mantle cell lymphoma? Magda Szubanski’s ‘rare and fast-moving’ cancer, explained – https://theconversation.com/what-is-mantle-cell-lymphoma-magda-szubanskis-rare-and-fast-moving-cancer-explained-257821

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tracking crime from the cradle: why some people keep breaking the law while most of us never do

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ayda Kuluk, PhD Candidate in Criminology and Criminal Justice, Griffith University

    Alena Lom/Shutterstock

    A major Australian study tracking more than 80,000 Queenslanders from birth to adulthood reveals stark differences between men and women in patterns of criminal behaviour.

    These patterns offer insights into effective crime prevention strategies.

    Our findings point to a clear takeaway: most people will never seriously come into contact with the criminal justice system. But for the small proportion who do, their paths into crime are shaped early and differently for men and women.

    That means crime prevention efforts need to start earlier and be tailored to the experiences of those most at risk.

    A rare opportunity

    Our research followed more than 83,000 people born in Queensland in 1983 and 1984, and linked their early life records with official police data to understand who offended and how their patterns changed over time.

    Few studies worldwide have followed such a large population from childhood through to early adulthood.

    This gave us a unique opportunity to examine not just if people committed crime but when, how often and the types and seriousness of their offences.

    Most people don’t offend but some do – repeatedly

    The clearest finding was also the most reassuring: the vast majority of people never commit serious offences.

    That means efforts to prevent crime can be more precisely targeted, ensuring interventions focus on a smaller, high-risk group rather than the general population.

    Non-offending was most prevalent, but five distinct offending groups for both men and women were identified.

    Among men, these ranged from those who rarely offended to a small group that started early and continued into adulthood, and another that mostly offended during adolescence but later stopped.

    In contrast, most women fell into the low or non-offending groups. Only a small proportion followed a pattern of serious or repeat offending.

    These trajectories were categorised as follows:

    Women:

    • non-offending: 79.9%
    • adolescent-limited low: 8.5%
    • adult-onset low: 8.6%
    • early adult-onset escalating: 1.3%
    • early onset young adult peak: 1.4%
    • chronic early adult peak: 0.4%

    Men:

    • non-offending: 54.4%
    • low: 31.0%
    • early adult-onset low: 6.5%
    • early onset young adult peak: 4.8%
    • chronic adolescent-onset: 2.2%
    • chronic early adult peak: 1.1%

    Among the women who did offend, there were notable differences compared to men – not just in frequency but in the types of offences, how often they had contact with police and their experience with youth detention.

    Patterns differ by sex

    For boys and young men, those in the persistent offending group had earlier and more frequent contact with police, were more likely to face serious charges and often experienced youth detention.

    For girls and young women, fewer entered the system overall but those with repeat contact showed distinct patterns: their offences tended to differ from those of men, with a greater focus on property-related crimes as well as drug and traffic violations, rather than the more frequent violent crimes seen among young men.

    While they were less likely to be detained, their level of system contact was higher than that of most men in the low offending group.

    These differences suggest sex shapes not just the likelihood of offending, but the nature of offending and how people interact with the justice system.

    One-size-fits-all crime prevention won’t work

    Our findings suggest a nuanced approach to crime prevention – one that recognises both the gendered nature of offending and the early life experiences that shape it.

    For boys and young men, this could mean early identification of behavioural issues, stronger support in schools and support to create stable, safe home environments.

    For girls and young women, more effective interventions might involve trauma-informed care (an approach that acknowledges past trauma and prioritises safety, trust and empowerment), along with tailored mental health support and services focused on recovery.

    These gender-sensitive approaches are not just about being fair, they’re about being effective and equitable. When we better understand the roots of offending behaviour, we can design policies that reduce it.

    Why early intervention matters

    It’s easy to think of crime as something that starts with a police report or a court appearance. But the conditions for offending, or avoiding it, are often set much earlier.

    Here are two real-life examples.

    What if we saw a child’s aggression at school not as “bad behaviour” but as a red flag for family violence at home? What if a teenage girl’s shoplifting was a symptom of trauma or mental illness?

    This research reinforces the value of early, targeted intervention.

    That doesn’t just mean more programs, it means smarter programs, ones that focus resources on those most at risk in ways that match their lived experience.

    Our study is one of the most comprehensive of its kind in Australia. It confirms that while most people never offend, a small group follow early, distinct pathways into crime.

    Recognising these patterns gives us a powerful opportunity: to design earlier and more targeted prevention. That means fewer people in the justice system and healthier, safer communities for everyone.

    If we want to stop crime before it starts, we need to start early, and we need to pay attention to the very different paths children may be on.

    Ayda Kuluk does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tracking crime from the cradle: why some people keep breaking the law while most of us never do – https://theconversation.com/tracking-crime-from-the-cradle-why-some-people-keep-breaking-the-law-while-most-of-us-never-do-257130

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Elon Musk promises more risky launches after sixth Starship failure

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Webb, Lecturer, Centre for Astrophysics and Supercomputing, Swinburne University of Technology

    What goes up must come down, and earlier this week yet another of SpaceX’s Starships, the biggest and most powerful type of rocket ever built, came back down to Earth in spectacular fashion. In the sky above the Indian Ocean, it exploded.

    This was the ninth test flight for the rocket, and the third catastrophic failure in a row, just this year.

    Is this what we should expect from the very ship some are counting on to take humans further than we’ve ever been in the solar system? Or does this failure point to deeper concerns within the broader program?

    A decade of development

    The Starship program from Elon Musk’s space technology company, SpaceX, has been in development for more than a decade now and has undergone many iterations in its overall design and goals.

    The Starship concept is based upon the SpaceX Raptor engines to be used in a multistage system. In a multistage rocket system, there are often two or three separate blocks with their own engine and fuel reserves. These are particularly important for leaving Earth’s orbit and travelling to the Moon, Mars and beyond.

    With Starship, the key factor is the ability to land and reuse vast amounts of the rocket stages again and again. The company’s Falcon 9 vehicles, which used this model, were fantastically successful.

    Initial tests of Starship began in 2018 with two low-altitude flights showing early success. Subsequent flights have faced numerous challenges with now four complete failures, two partial failures and three successes overall.

    Just two days ago, during the latest failed attempt, I watched alongside over 200 other space industry experts at the Australian Space Summit in Sydney. Broadcast live on a giant screen, the launch generated an excited buzz – which soon turned to reserved murmurs.

    Of course, designing and launching rockets is hard, and failures are to be expected. However, a third catastrophic failure within six months demands a pause for reflection.

    On this particular test flight, as Starship positioned itself for atmospheric re-entry, one of its 13 engines failed to ignite. Shortly after, a booster appeared to explode, leading to a complete loss of control. The rocket ultimately broke apart over the Indian Ocean, which tonnes of debris will now call home.

    Polluting Earth in pursuit of space

    We don’t know the exact financial cost of each test flight. But Musk has previously said it is about US$50–100 million.

    The exact environmental cost of the Starship program – and its repeated failures – is even harder to quantify.

    For example, a failed test flight in 2023 left the town of Port Isabel, Texas, which is located beside the launch site, shaking and covered in a thick cloud of dirt. Debris from the exploded rocket smashed cars. Residents told the New York Times they were terrified. They also had to clean up the mess from the flight.

    Then, in September 2024, SpaceX was fined by the US Environmental Protection Agency and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality for 14 separate incidents since 2022 where the launch facilities discharged polluted water into Texas waterways. Musk denied these claims.

    That same month, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) proposed a fine of US$633,009 in civil penalties should be issued to SpaceX. This was on the grounds of using an unapproved launch control room and other violations during 2023. Musk denied these claims too and threatened to countersue the FAA for “regulatory overreach”.

    It’s unclear if this suit was ever filed.

    Two other failed launches in January and March this year also rained rocket debris over the Caribbean, and disrupted hundreds of commercial flights, including 80 which needed to be diverted and more than 400 requiring delayed takeoff to ensure they were entering safe air space.

    Success of different space programs

    Until last year, the FAA allowed SpaceX to try up to five Starship launches a year. This month, the figure was increased to 25.

    A lot can go wrong during a launch of a vehicle to space. And there is a long way to go until we can properly judge whether Starship successfully meets its mission goals.

    We can, however, look at past programs to understand typical success rates seen across different rocketry programs.

    The Saturn V rocket, the workhorse of the Apollo era, had a total of 13 launches, with only one partial failure. It underwent three full ground tests before flight.

    SpaceX’s own Falcon 9 rocket, has had more than 478 successful launches, only two in flight failures, one partial failure and one pre-flight destruction.

    The Antares rocket, by Orbital Sciences Corporation (later Orbital ATK and Northrop Grumman) launched a total of 18 times, with one failure.

    The Soyuz rocket, originally a Soviet expendable carrier rocket designed in the 1960s, launched a total of 32 times, with two failures.

    No sign of caution

    Of course, we can’t fairly compare all other rockets with the Starship. Its goals are certainly novel as a reusable heavy-class rocket.

    But this latest failure does raise some questions. Will the Starship program ever see success – and if so when? And what are the limits of our tolerance as a society to the pollution of Earth in the pursuit of the goal to space?

    For a rocketry program that’s moving so fast, developing novel and complex technology, and experiencing several repeated failures, many people might expect caution from now on. Musk, however, has other plans.

    Shortly after the most recent Starship failure, he announced on X (formerly Twitter, that the next test flights would occur at a faster pace: one every three to four weeks.

    Sara Webb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Elon Musk promises more risky launches after sixth Starship failure – https://theconversation.com/elon-musk-promises-more-risky-launches-after-sixth-starship-failure-257726

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Most of Australia’s conservation efforts ignore climate risks – here are 3 fixes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yi Fei Chung, PhD Candidate in Environmental Policy, The University of Queensland

    Imagine replanting various native species only to have them die because the area is too hot or too dry. Or reconnecting woodland habitat only to lose large tracts to bushfire.

    Well, our new research suggests those scenarios are entirely possible.

    We analysed the two most common ways to prevent overall biodiversity loss on private land in Australia. We found these efforts largely ignore climate risks such as fire, heat, drought and floods.

    Climate change is already threatening the survival of species. Unless conservation efforts are made more resilient to climate change, Australia’s aim to to reverse biodiversity loss could fail.

    What we found

    We examined two types of biodiversity measures in Australia. One is “biodiversity offsets”, which aim to compensate for damage caused by development. The other is voluntary conservation programs, including “conservation covenants”.

    We analysed 77 policy documents underpinning nine biodiversity offset policies and 11 voluntary conservation programs.

    Of the 77 documents, 84% did not consider the impact of climate change. What’s more, only 44% of biodiversity offset policies and 27% of voluntary conservation programs considered climate risk. Even then, they often lacked detail or tools to translate policy into real action on the ground.

    The most common climate adaptation strategies were:

    • safeguarding climate refuges
    • connecting habitat so wildlife can escape extreme heat, fires or droughts
    • targeting funding
    • avoiding offset sites vulnerable to threats such as sea-level rise.

    But most documents lacked details on implementing these strategies.

    We suggest three practical steps to ensure conservation efforts deliver lasting results in a changing climate.

    Few private land conservation programs or biodiversity offset policies took climate change into account.
    Chung, Y. F., et al, (2025) Biological Conservation

    1. Identify and protect climate refuges

    Climate refuges are areas somewhat shielded from the effects of climate change. Gullies, sheltered slopes and forests with good water supplies can help species survive during heatwaves and droughts.

    These places can provide a lifeline for endangered species and prevent local extinctions. Species may shelter in these areas during climate extremes and recolonise well-connected habitats when conditions improve.

    Protecting climate refuges by restricting land clearing or other damaging activities is a common climate adaptation strategy. We found it featured in six policy documents supporting voluntary conservation programs and biodiversity offsets across Australia. But few policy documents explain where these places are or how to protect them.

    For example, the New South Wales Biodiversity Conservation Investment Strategy lists climate refuges as high-priority assets under threat. The strategy says future investment should target these areas.

    But we found no explanation of how investments would be prioritised, or where to find that information. Without this detail, mentioning climate refuges in policy documents is little more than having good intentions.

    To be effective, refuges need to be mapped, prioritised and supported with appropriate protections and incentives. Nature law reform must strengthen protection of climate refuges to prevent further loss.

    Conservation programs could also specifically incentivise landholders to protect or restore refuges on their properties.

    Here’s how to protect Australia’s native species from climate change (The Climate Council)

    2. Promote the actions that build resilience

    On the ground, conservation actions must adapt to climate change. That could mean doing things differently. For example, planting species more likely to survive future climates, or connecting habitat so wildlife can move to new areas.

    While these strategies are well established, we only found three policy documents that mention them. One is the Heritage Agreement policy in South Australia. This offers guidance and potential funding to help landholders implement these actions.

    As Australia’s nature laws are reformed, funding commitments and conservation guidelines need to follow suit.

    Financial incentives or technical support could be offered to landholders for activities that build resilience. Biodiversity offset policies could also mandate conservation actions that improve climate resilience at offset sites.

    3. Adapting to climate change needs to link policy to on-ground action

    Our research found a clear gap between high-level intent and guidelines for on-ground actions. If they don’t line up, then conservation efforts risk falling short. Field programs may lack legal backing, or legislation may not translate into action where it matters most.

    Climate change should be considered at all levels of conservation policies – from high-level legislation to guidelines for implementing individual programs.

    Policies should include clear and consistent targets informed by climate risk. This should be supported by regulations ensuring compliance and practical guidelines for on-ground action.

    Voluntary conservation programs in New South Wales show how it can be done. State biodiversity conservation legislation includes conserving biodiversity under climate change as a key objective. This can then shape real-world programs. For example, the NSW Conservation Management plan echoes this climate commitment. It makes addressing climate change impacts one of the main targets.

    A chance to get it right

    National nature law reform and state reviews present an opportunity to future-proof Australia’s conservation policies.

    These policies must consider the accelerating pace of change and ensure adaptation is embedded through to action. Such actions must be clear, well-resourced, and equipped with practical tools government agencies and landholders can use.

    Otherwise, we risk making conservation policies unfit for the future – missing a golden opportunity to safeguard biodiversity.



    Read more:
    Want genuine progress towards restoring nature? Follow these 4 steps

    Yi Fei Chung receives funding from a UQ Research Training Scholarship. He is also involving in an Australian Research Council Linkage Project that receives financial and in-kind support from the NSW Department of Planning and Environment, the Biodiversity Conservation Trust, Tweed Shire Council, and the NSW Koala Strategy.

    Jonathan Rhodes receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the NSW Government, the Biodiversity Conservation Trust, Tweed Shire Council, the NSW Koala Strategy, and the Queensland Government.

    – ref. Most of Australia’s conservation efforts ignore climate risks – here are 3 fixes – https://theconversation.com/most-of-australias-conservation-efforts-ignore-climate-risks-here-are-3-fixes-257131

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Earth’s seasonal rhythms are changing, putting species and ecosystems at risk

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daniel Hernández Carrasco, PhD Candidate in Ecology, University of Canterbury

    Shutterstock/Colin Stephenson

    Seasonality shapes much of life on Earth. Most species, including humans, have synchronised their own rhythms with those of Earth’s seasons.

    Plant growth cycles, the migration of billions of animals, and even aspects of human culture – from harvest rituals to Japanese cherry blossom viewings – are dictated by these dominant rhythms.

    However, climate change and many other human impacts are altering Earth’s cycles. While humans can adapt their behaviour by shifting the timing of crop harvests or Indigenous fire-burning practices, species are less able to adapt through evolution or range shifts.

    Our new research highlights how the impacts of shifting seasons can cascade through ecosystems, with widespread repercussions that may be greater than previously thought.

    This puts species and ecosystems at risk the world over. We are still far from having a full picture of what changes in seasonality mean for the future of biodiversity.

    Almost every ecosystem on Earth has seasons

    From tropical forests to polar ice caps and abyssal depths, the annual journey of Earth around the Sun brings distinct seasons to all corners of the planet.

    These seasonal rhythms shape ecosystems everywhere, whether through monsoonal rains in equatorial regions or the predictable melt of snowpack in mountain ranges.

    But the seasonality of these processes is changing rapidly due to local human impacts. This includes dams in many rivers, which completely and abruptly disrupt their natural flow, and deforestation, which changes the timing of the onset of the rain season.

    These local influences are compounded by climate change, which is systematically modifying seasonal patterns in snow cover, temperature and rainfall around the world.

    Monsoon rains represent one of Earth’s major seasonal cycles.
    Shutterstock/Milju varghese

    From the earlier seasonal melting of glaciers and the snowpack to the disruption of monsoonal rain cycles, the effects of these changes are being felt widely.

    Many important ecological processes we rely on could be affected. A mismatch between plankton blooms and the life cycles of fish could affect the health of fisheries. Tourism dependent on seasonal migrations of large mammals could suffer. Even the regulation of the climate system itself is tightly controlled by seasonal processes.

    Changing seasonality threatens to destabilise key ecological processes and human society.

    Evolutionary adaptations to seasonal fluctuations

    The seasonal rhythms of ecosystems are obvious to any observer. The natural timing of annual flowers and deciduous trees – tuned to match seasonal variations in rainfall, temperature and solar radiation – transforms the colours of whole landscapes throughout the year.

    The arrival and departure of migratory birds, the life cycle of insects and amphibians, and the mating rituals of large mammals can completely change the soundscapes with the seasons.

    These examples illustrate how seasonality acts as a strong evolutionary force that has shaped the life cycles and behaviour of most species. But, in the face of unprecedented changes to Earth’s natural rhythms, these adaptations can lead to complex negative impacts.

    Snowshoe hares are struggling to adapt to shifts in the timing of the first snowfall and melt.
    Shutterstock/Karen Hogan

    For instance, snowshoe hares change coat colour between winter and summer to blend in with their surroundings and hide from predators. They are struggling to adapt to shifts in the timing of the first snow and snowmelt. The impact of changing seasonality on hare populations is linked with changes in predation rates. But predators themselves may also be out of sync with the new onset of seasons.

    Our research highlights that these kinds of complex interactions can propagate impacts through ecosystems, linking individual species’ seasonal adaptations to broader food web dynamics, or even ecosystem functions such as carbon sequestration.

    Although biologists have studied seasonal processes for centuries, we know surprisingly little about how they mediate any ecological impacts of altered seasonality. Our findings show we are likely underestimating these impacts.

    The distinct mechanisms involved deserve further attention. Until we account for these complex processes, we risk overlooking important ecological and human consequences.

    The more we understand, the better prepared we are

    Understanding the extent to which impacts of altered seasonality can interact and propagate from individuals to whole ecosystems is a big challenge. It will require different types of research, complex mathematical modelling and the design of new experiments. But it is not easy to manipulate the seasons in an experiment.

    Scientists have come up with inventive ways of experimentally testing the effects of altered seasonality. This includes manually removing snow early in spring, manipulating rainfall patterns through irrigation and moving plants and animals to places with different seasonality.

    Some researchers have even recovered seeds from centuries-old collections to sprout them and look at how recent changes in climate have affected plant populations.

    These efforts will be of great value for forecasting impacts and designing effective management strategies beneficial for ecosystems and humans alike. Such efforts help to anticipate future shocks and prioritise interventions.

    For instance, understanding the mechanisms that allow native and non-native species to anticipate seasonal changes has proven useful for “tricking” non-native plants into sprouting only in the wrong season. This gives an advantage to native plants.

    Similarly, studies on the molecular mechanisms involved in the response to seasonality can help us determine whether certain species are likely to adapt to further changes in seasonal patterns. This research can also point out genes that could be targeted for improving the resilience and productivity of crops.

    Not only are we likely underestimating the ecological risks of shifting seasons, we tend to forget how much our everyday lives depend on them. As Earth’s rhythms change, the risks multiply. But so does our opportunity to better understand, anticipate and adapt to these changes.

    Daniel Hernández Carrasco receives funding from a Doctoral Scholarship by the University of Canterbury.

    Jonathan Tonkin receives funding from a Rutherford Discovery Fellowship administered by the Royal Society Te Apārangi and the Centres of Research Excellence Bioprotection Aotearoa and Te Pūnaha Matatini.

    – ref. Earth’s seasonal rhythms are changing, putting species and ecosystems at risk – https://theconversation.com/earths-seasonal-rhythms-are-changing-putting-species-and-ecosystems-at-risk-257660

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Talk to Me was a rollercoaster, but the Philippou brothers’ Bring Her Back will trap you in a house of horrors

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Balanzategui, Associate Professor in Media, RMIT University

    A24

    They may have only made two feature films so far, but Danny and Michael Philippou are already being hailed as Australia’s premiere horror auteurs.

    Their 2023 debut Talk To Me sparked a bidding war between distributors upon its premiere at Sundance.

    It went on to become prestige indie studio A24’s highest grossing horror release ever at the United States box office. That’s an impressive feat, given A24 is behind some of the most revered horror films of the 21st century, including Ari Aster’s Hereditary (2018) and Midsommar (2019), and Robert Eggers’ The Witch (2015).

    This context helps explain the sky-high expectations around the release of the Philippous’ newest horror film, Bring Her Back. The brothers even expressed their nerves around the film’s release during a preview screening introduction.

    But I’d suggest they breathe a sigh of relief. Bring Her Back trades the chaotic thrills of Talk To Me for a slow-burning, sensory-driven exploration of grief that’s as engrossing as it is unbearable.

    Same universe, but not a sequel

    Bring Her Back is very tonally distinct from and not explicitly narratively linked to Talk To Me. However, the directors have explained it exists in the same fictional universe as their original smash hit.

    This explains why, despite the stark difference in tone – Bring Her Back is a much more sombre watch – there are many thematic and stylistic parallels. These similarities are visible from the films’ marketing materials, through to individual frames.

    Film posters for Bring Her Back and Talk To Me.
    A24

    Bring Her Back’s sombre notes

    Talk To Me is a riotous, bloody and loud racket of teen supernatural possession horror.

    Like Richard Carter’s song Le Monde, a viral hit from the movie’s soundtrack, the film rises and falls cacophonously. It follows a group of teens at a party as they decide to commune with the dead through an occult party prop: a cursed hand.

    Trauma, grief, gore and comedy strike discordantly at the piano keys as the body count piles up.

    In contrast to Talk To Me’s tonal and sonic mayhem, Bring Her Back heavily pounds at the same two notes throughout: grief and trauma.

    Set in the horror staple of a mysterious, suffocating house, the film follows step-siblings Piper (Sora Wong) and Andy (Billy Barratt) as they adjust to life with their new foster mother, Laura (Sally Hawkins), after their father’s sudden death. The teen’s sense of vulnerability in the strange new environment is heightened by the fact Piper is blind.

    Bring Her Back builds on a trend of sensory-driven horror films – including the Quiet Place franchise, Bird Box (2018), and The Silence (2019) – that impel viewers to navigate threatening environments through the main character’s sensory loss or impairment.

    Uncomfortable on the ear

    In Bring Her Back, the viewer inhabits the destabilising environment of the house through layered sensory textures that feel increasingly claustrophobic and threatening.

    Case in point is the harsh rush of water in the running shower where the teens find their father’s gruesome dead body in the opening moments. As the film progresses, this sound manifests as a genuine threat to Piper’s life, in the form of relentlessly pouring (and potentially occult) rain.

    The oppressive rain gradually fills up the house’s desolate, unfenced swimming pool, which is the site of previous trauma for foster mother Laura.

    Simply traversing the house’s backyard becomes increasingly perilous for Piper as she becomes accustomed to her environment, a process the audience shares through the audio-visuals of her hands gliding across walls, counter tops and corners.

    The immersive sound design is dense with hands scraping, sliding and slapping – as well as some truly hideous teeth gnashing. These tactile sounds integrate chillingly with the otherwordly soundtrack composed by Cornel Wilczek, who also composed the score for Talk to Me.

    Haunting performances

    The teens soon learn that another foster child, the mute and mysterious Oliver (Jonah Wren Phillips), also inhabits the house. The strange relationship between Laura and Oliver couldn’t be more ominous.

    Sally Hawkins is captivatingly monstrous as the outwardly warm but increasingly overbearing and unhinged mother figure (particularly for those of us with a fresh memory of Hawkins’ loveably zany mum, Mrs Brown, from the Paddington films).

    Piper is tempted to sink into the warm embrace Laura offers. The viewer, however, is privy to Laura’s vicious streak – evident in her rough, uncaring gestures, harsh glares and sinister flashes of cunning.

    Young Jonah Wren Phillips is transfixing as the creepy Oliver, delivering a performance through piercing stares and tortured bodily contortions rather than dialogue.

    Unbearably grim

    Bring Her Back exhibits a dense film literacy. The Philippous have discussed the influence of classic “psycho biddy” films such as What Ever Happened to Baby Jane? (1962), and foundational ghost films such as The Innocents (1961).

    But for me, Bring Her Back chimes most evocatively with the trauma- and grief-soaked Japanese horror wave of the early 2000s, and particularly with Hideo Nakata’s J-Horror masterpiece Dark Water (2002).

    This tragic ghost story similarly deploys the rippling, rushing and dripping of water as an agent of death and decay within fractured mother-daughter relationships.

    Inhabiting the world of Bring Her Back ends up feeling like an unbearably grim and claustrophobic endurance effort – which is exactly what the Philippous intended.

    While this is not the exhilarating rollercoaster of Talk To Me, the shift in tonal gears showcases the Philippous’ impressive range within the horror genre’s rich emotional terrain.

    Bring Her Back is in cinemas from today.

    Jessica Balanzategui receives funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Talk to Me was a rollercoaster, but the Philippou brothers’ Bring Her Back will trap you in a house of horrors – https://theconversation.com/talk-to-me-was-a-rollercoaster-but-the-philippou-brothers-bring-her-back-will-trap-you-in-a-house-of-horrors-257631

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: NSW is again cleaning up after major floods. Are we veering towards the collapse of insurability?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Booth, Associate Professor of Human Geography, University of Tasmania

    Once again, large parts of New South Wales have been devastated by floods. It’s estimated 10,000 homes and businesses may have been damaged or destroyed and the Insurance Council of Australia reports more than 6,000 insurance claims have been received for the Mid North Coast and Hunter region.

    Hundreds of families are displaced. With many homes now uninhabitable, they face a uncertain future.

    As the mop-up begins, stories are emerging of households and businesses not covered by insurance, with some residents saying insurance companies were asking up to A$30,000 annually for cover.

    There are many others who are underinsured, with insurance payouts not meeting the full costs of rebuild, repair and replacement. The Insurance Council of Australia has declared the event an “insurance catastrophe”.

    The impacts of these floods reflect global trends. In 2024, there were around 60 natural disaster events that each exceeded A$1.5 billion in economic losses. Total losses worldwide reached A$650 billion.

    As one of the most disaster-prone countries in the Western world, is Australia the canary in the coalmine for a global collapse of insurance? With these types of disasters escalating in a changing climate, it is reasonable to feel – and fear – this is the case.

    An uninsurable future?

    In 1992, sociologist Ulrich Beck argued unpredictable global risks, such as climate change, would bring an end to the private insurance market, with profound effects on the modern world.

    The idea of an uninsurable future stirs up imaginings of apocalyptic landscapes – crumbling buildings, streets strewn with refuse and people eking out a living amid the rubble and ruins.

    But the reality is, as we are seeing in central NSW, it is not a future event that demands attention. Many individuals and communities are already living with an unfolding collapse of insurance affordability and availability.

    The consequences can be dire, especially for those already struggling to make ends meet.

    How are governments responding?

    Speaking on ABC radio on Thursday morning, NSW Premier Chris Minns said he would be “putting the heat” on insurance companies:

    Everyone’s going to have to do their part […] and that means insurance companies will have to step up and pay out claims quickly.

    In the lead-up to the federal election, both major parties made clear they believed insurers were “ripping off” Australians. The Coalition even proposed new emergency divestiture powers that would allow the government to break up major insurers in the case of market failure.

    But this is no solution at all, given insurance pricing and coverage is largely set by global “reinsurers”. Reinsurance is a kind of insurance coverage for insurance companies themselves – that is, policies to cover the cost of paying out claims after major disasters.

    Just ten multi-billion dollar companies control 70% of the reinsurance market.

    Who should bear rising costs?

    Insurers, led by the Insurance Council of Australia, are pushing for a Flood Defence Fund and retrofitting homes for disaster resilience, paid for by governments and households.

    These ideas might seem logical. But they draw attention away from a thriving industry and regulations and policies aimed at making insurance more affordable and effective for ordinary people.

    In places like Australia, the increasing cost of insurance cuts across all types, with the largest rises coming in home, vehicle, and employers’ liability insurance.

    Many insurers are reporting healthy profits. Globally, the sector is experiencing “exceptionally strong growth”.

    Over the three years to 2024, revenue from premiums in the insurance sector increased by over 21% globally – a “whopping” rise, according to the finance corporation Allianz.

    Where to from here?

    The insurance sector will continue to grow – and profit – until it no longer can due to climate change and other pressures.

    But it is not a future crash of insurers that should be of primary concern. It is the real-time collapse of insurance for households, businesses and communities.

    As this collapse of insurance unfolds, it is largely left to households and communities to take action and build resilience.

    Examples include squatters taking possession of flood-damaged vacant homes in Lismore and, when combined with the housing crisis, the growth in informal housing and settlements on the fringes of major population centres.

    These are desperate responses. But they are also realistic, given governments and insurers are failing to reverse this trending collapse.

    What else we could do

    After each major disaster event comes a rise in insurance costs and a withdrawal of insurance coverage. To avoid being a canary in the coalmine, Australia urgently needs government intervention in the insurance industry – an industry very resistant to such intervention.

    To ensure everyone is adequately covered when disaster strikes, this could come in the form of an equitable and affordable public insurance scheme.

    As more Australians lose the ability to insure themselves, governments must also address growing structural inequality that is undermining social cohesion and our capacity for collective resilience.



    Read more:
    Underinsurance is entrenching poverty as the vulnerable are hit hardest by disasters

    Kate Booth receives funding from the Tasmanian Department of Premier and Cabinet – Grant-Disaster Ready Fund. She is affiliated with Just Collapse – an activist platform dedicated to socio-ecological justice in unfolding, irreversible global collapse.

    – ref. NSW is again cleaning up after major floods. Are we veering towards the collapse of insurability? – https://theconversation.com/nsw-is-again-cleaning-up-after-major-floods-are-we-veering-towards-the-collapse-of-insurability-257715

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Researchers created a chatbot to help teach a university law class – but the AI kept messing up

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Armin Alimardani, Senior Lecturer in Law and Emerging Technologies, University of Wollongong

    Mikhail Nilov/ Pexels , CC BY

    “AI tutors” have been hyped as a way to revolutionise education.

    The idea is generative artificial intelligence tools (such as ChatGPT) could adapt to any teaching style set by a teacher. The AI could guide students step-by-step through problems and offer hints without giving away answers. It could then deliver precise, immediate feedback tailored to the student’s individual learning gaps.

    Despite the enthusiasm, there is limited research testing how well AI performs in teaching environments, especially within structured university courses.

    In our new study, we developed our own AI tool for a university law class. We wanted to know, can it genuinely support personalised learning or are we expecting too much?

    Our study

    In 2022, we developed SmartTest, a customisable educational chatbot, as part of a broader project to democratise access to AI tools in education.

    Unlike generic chatbots, SmartTest is purpose-built for educators, allowing them to embed questions, model answers and prompts. This means the chatbot can ask relevant questions, deliver accurate and consistent feedback and minimise hallucinations (or mistakes). SmartTest is also instructed to use the Socratic method, encouraging students to think, rather than spoon-feeding them answers.

    We trialled SmartTest over five test cycles in a criminal law course (which one of us was coordinating) at the University of Wollongong in 2023.

    Each cycle introduced varying degrees of complexity. The first three cycles used short hypothetical criminal law scenarios (for example, is the accused guilty of theft in this scenario?). The last two cycles used simple short-answer questions (for example, what’s the maximum sentencing discount for a guilty plea?).

    An average of 35 students interacted with SmartTest in each cycle across several criminal law tutorials. Participation was voluntary and anonymous, with students interacting with SmartTest on their own devices for up to ten minutes per session. Students’ conversations with SmartTest – their attempts at answering the question, and the immediate feedback they received from the chatbot – were recorded in our database.

    After the final test cycle, we surveyed students about their experience.

    What we found

    SmartTest showed promise in guiding students and helping them identify gaps in their understanding.

    However, in the first three cycles (the problem-scenario questions), between 40% and 54% of conversations had at least one example of inaccurate, misleading, or incorrect feedback.

    When we shifted to much simpler short-answer format in cycles four and five, the error rate dropped significantly to between 6% and 27%. However, even in these best-performing cycles, some errors persisted. For example, sometimes SmartTest would affirm an incorrect answer before providing the correct one, which risks confusing students.

    A significant revelation was the sheer effort required to get the chatbot working effectively in our tests. Far from a time-saving silver bullet, integrating SmartTest involved painstaking prompt engineering and rigorous manual assessments from educators (in this case, us). This paradox – where a tool promoted as labour-saving demands significant labour – calls into question its practical benefits for already time-poor educators.

    Inconsistency is a core issue

    SmartTest’s behaviour was also unpredictable. Under identical conditions, it sometimes offered excellent feedback and at other times provided incorrect, confusing or misleading information.

    For an educational tool tasked with supporting student learning, this raises serious concerns about reliability and trustworthiness.

    To assess if newer models improved performance, we replaced the underlying generative AI powering SmartTest (ChatGPT-4) with newer models, such as ChatGPT-4.5, which was released in 2025.

    We tested these models by replicating instances where SmartTest provided poor feedback to students in our study. The newer models did not consistently outperform older ones. Sometimes, their responses were even less accurate or useful from a teaching perspective. As such, newer more advanced AI models do not automatically translate to better educational outcomes.

    What does this mean for students and teachers?

    The implications for students and university staff are mixed.

    Generative AI may support low-stakes, formative learning activities. But in our study, it could not provide the reliability, nuance and subject-matter depth needed for many educational contexts.

    On the plus side, our survey results indicated students appreciated the immediate feedback and conversational tone of SmartTest. Some mentioned it reduced anxiety and made them more comfortable expressing uncertainty. However, this benefit came with a catch: incorrect or misleading answers could just as easily reinforce misunderstandings as clarify them.

    Most students (76%) preferred having access to SmartTest rather than no opportunity to practise questions. However, when given the choice between receiving immediate feedback from AI or waiting one or more days for feedback from human tutors, only 27% preferred AI. Nearly half preferred human feedback with a delay and the rest were indifferent.

    This suggests a critical challenge. Students enjoy the convenience of AI tools, but they still place higher trust in human educators.

    A need for caution

    Our findings suggest generative AI should still be treated as an experimental educational aid.

    The potential is real – but so are the limitations. Relying too heavily on AI without rigorous evaluation risks compromising the very educational outcomes we are aiming to enhance.

    Armin Alimardani previously had a short-term, part-time contract with OpenAI as a consultant. The organisation had no input into the study featured in this article. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors.

    This work was supported by the Early-Mid-Career Researcher Enabling Grants Scheme, University of Wollongong (2022, Project ID: R5829).

    This work was supported by the School Research Grant, School of the Arts and Media (SAM), UNSW Sydney (2023, Project ID: PS68922); the Research Infrastructure Scheme, Faculty of Arts, Design, and Architecture, UNSW Sydney (2023, Project ID: PS68745); and the School Research Grant, SAM, UNSW Sydney (2022, Project ID: PS66264).

    – ref. Researchers created a chatbot to help teach a university law class – but the AI kept messing up – https://theconversation.com/researchers-created-a-chatbot-to-help-teach-a-university-law-class-but-the-ai-kept-messing-up-257551

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: People with disability are dying from cancers we can actually prevent, our study shows

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yi Yang, Research Fellow, Social Epidemiology, Melbourne Disability Institute, Melbourne School of Population and Global Health, The University of Melbourne

    Chona Kasinger/Disabled and Here, CC BY-SA

    People with disability are missing out on screening programs that could help detect cancer early, and after diagnosis, are less likely to survive, our study shows.

    Overall, this means people with disability are more likely to die from cancer than people without disability.

    We draw together evidence showing the striking inequity at the heart of current approaches to controlling cancer.

    But there are ways to improve access to the types of screening programs and cancer services many people without disability use routinely.

    What we did and what we found

    We reviewed evidence from 73 studies from around the world. These studies compared cancer outcomes in people with disability to those without.

    Let’s start with cancer screening, one way to prevent deaths from cancer. Screening picks up early signs of cancer or can prevent it from developing into a problem if found early enough. Early detection usually means more treatment options and higher chances of a good outcome.

    However, our review found people with disability are missing out on these life-saving screening programs all around the world, including for breast, cervical and bowel cancer.

    In fact, some studies in our review showed these cancers are more likely to be diagnosed at an advanced stage in people with disability.

    Once diagnosed, people with disability are still at a disadvantage. We found lower survival rates than cancer patients without disability.

    This could be because of delayed diagnosis and inaccessible treatment, and we’d need further research to be sure. But we do have relevant evidence from some studies.

    A UK study of cancer deaths in people with intellectual disability found more than a third had their cancer diagnosed after going to the emergency department. Almost half of the cancers in the study were already at an advanced stage when diagnosed.

    Another review of global evidence found cancer patients with disability receive poorer quality cancer care. This included delays in treatment, being undertreated or having excessively invasive treatment. People with disability also had less access to in-hospital services and pain medication.

    From diagnosis to treatment, global evidence shows people with disability are being excluded from health services that many people without disability routinely access and benefit from.

    The situation is no different in Australia and it is costing lives.

    In previous work, we found cancer is a leading cause of earlier deaths among Australians with disability. It’s the cause of about 20% of the extra deaths we see in people with disability compared to people without.

    Why is this happening?

    We clearly need to do more to improve health care for people with disability. But we also need to take action in other areas to address underlying issues.

    People with disability are more likely to be poor and live in disadvantaged circumstances than the rest of the Australian population, which may put them at higher risk of cancer.

    Many factors that cause cancer – for example, smoking, unaffordable healthy food, and drinking high levels of alcohol – disproportionately impact disadvantaged groups, including people with disability.

    Many people with disability live with additional health conditions, which can lead to a lack of attention to routine issues. This can result in cancer screening and routine care becoming less of a priority.

    Buildings where services are provided and medical diagnostic equipment is located are not always accessible for people with disability.

    The health system itself can be inaccessible, with little support to help people with disability access services. For instance, navigating cancer care can be overwhelming, especially for people who need support for daily activities, transport or communication.

    People with disability, especially with intellectual disability, need extra time and support to give informed consent to screening, treatment or procedures – resources and time particularly overstretched in public health systems.

    People with disability can also experience both direct and indirect discrimination in health care, which lead to poorer outcomes. This includes discriminatory attitudes towards people with disability and their carers, and making assumptions about a patient based on their disability.

    Health systems need to allow for extra time to get informed consent.
    Media_Photos/Shutterstock

    What can we do about it?

    For cancer control to be inclusive and work for people with disability, we need to look at:

    • prevention – public health interventions, such as quit smoking or healthy lifestyle programs, need to be co-designed with and tailored to people with disability

    • early detection – national screening programs must develop strategies and take active steps to include people with disability. Clinics need to be physically accessible, information needs to be available in a range of accessible formats, and extra time needs to be allocated to get genuine informed consent

    • ensuring people with disability have a voice – cancer care needs to be tailored to an individual person, as everyone’s needs are different. We need to support and include people with disability in conversations about their care so they can make informed decisions. This means providing information in ways that work for them, and allowing time to understand and ask questions

    • training health professionals to understand and respond to the needs of people with disability and make the adjustments required for optimal cancer care, particularly for people with an intellectual disability.

    Yi Yang’s research is supported by a postdoctoral fellowship from the Melbourne Disability Institute and an Early Career Researcher Grant from the University of Melbourne. Yi Yang has conducted commissioned work for the Australian Department of Social Services (inequalities in NDIS), the Victorian Department of Families Fairness and Housing (NDIS service use in Victoria), and the Queensland Department of Seniors, Disability Services, and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Partnerships (inequalities in NDIS service use in regional and remote Queensland).

    George Disney receives funding from the NHMRC and has conducted commissioned work for the Australian Department of Social Services (NDIS service use), the Victorian Department of Families Fairness and Housing (inequalities in NDIS service use), and the Queensland Department of Seniors, Disability Services, and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Partnerships (NDIS service use in regional and remote Queensland).

    Kirsten Deane is a member of the consortium receiving funding from the Commonwealth Department of Health for the Centre of Excellence in Intellectual Disability Health. Melbourne Disability Institute also receives funding from the Department of Social Services for the Australian Disability Dialogue and for the Centre for Inclusive Employment. MDi also received funding from the Commonwealth, Victorian and Queensland governments to conduct research into inequities in NDIS funding and services.

    – ref. People with disability are dying from cancers we can actually prevent, our study shows – https://theconversation.com/people-with-disability-are-dying-from-cancers-we-can-actually-prevent-our-study-shows-257456

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Google is going ‘all in’ on AI. It’s part of a troubling trend in big tech

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Zena Assaad, Senior Lecturer, School of Engineering, Australian National University

    Google recently unveiled the next phase of its artificial intelligence (AI) journey: “AI mode”.

    This new feature will soon be released as a new option to users of Google’s search engine in the United States, with no timeline yet for the rest of the world. The company says it will be akin to having a conversation with an expert well versed on a wide range of topics.

    This is just one of many steps Google is taking in pursuit of its “all-in” approach to AI.

    The “all-in” approach extends beyond just integrating the technology into different applications. Google is providing products all along the AI supply chain – a process known as “vertical integration” – housing everything from AI computer chips through to the user interfaces we interact with on a daily basis, such as Google maps or Gmail.

    Google isn’t the only AI company with ambitions of vertical integration. For example, OpenAI recently acquired a hardware startup co-founded by Apple’s Jony Ive, which will centralise hardware development within the company. Amazon is taking similar steps. It owns cloud computing platforms, custom chips, device plans and is incorporating more AI services into products.

    This may be the beginning of a trend of vertical integration across big tech. And it could have significant implications for users and companies alike.

    The AI ‘tech stack’

    Hardware, software, data sources, databases and servers are some of the layers that make up what is commonly referred to as the “AI tech stack”.

    There are four main layers to Google’s evolving vertical tech stack:

    1. Hardware layer. Google develops its own AI chips, known as tensor processing units (TPUs). The company claims these chips provide superior performance and efficiency compared to general purpose processors.

    2. Infrastructure layer. The company uses its own cloud infrastructure to source its computing power, networking and storage requirements. This infrastructure is the foundation for running and scaling AI capabilities.

    3. Model development layer. In-house research capabilities are used to drive the development of their products and services. This includes research around machine learning, robotics, language models and computer vision.

    4. Data layer. Data is constantly sourced from users across all Google platforms, including its search engine, maps and email. Data collection is a condition of using any Google application.

    Some argue vertical integration is an optimal and cost-effective business strategy in many industries, not just tech. However, the realities of this set-up prove otherwise.

    Google is seeking to become a vertically integrated AI company.
    RYO Alexandre/Shutterstock

    Fuelling power imbalances

    Google and OpenAI are two of just a handful of companies which dominate the global technology market.

    Thanks to this market dominance, these companies can charge higher markups for their goods and services and abuse practices in online advertising.

    Vertical integration further skews this power imbalance by centralising the layers of the AI tech stack to one company. A distribution of hardware, infrastructure, research and development and data across multiple industries helps support a more equitable playing field across the industry.

    The loss of this equity creates greater barriers to entry for smaller companies as the larger conglomerates keep everything in-house.

    It also reduces incentives to innovate in ways that benefit consumers because it eliminates the business competition that usually drives innovation.

    Data is often described as the new gold. This is especially true in the case of AI, which is heavily reliant on data. Through its many platforms, Google has access to a continuous stream of data. In turn, this gives the company even more power in the industry.

    Other tech companies such as Amazon are moving towards vertical integration in the AI sector.
    ACHPF/Shutterstock

    The vulnerabilities of vertical integration

    The success of a company that is vertically integrated relies on housing the best knowledge and expertise in-house. Retaining this level of resourcing within a small handful of companies can lead to knowledge and expertise hoarding.

    Research shows knowledge and expertise hoarding reduces social learning and increases disparities between “winners” and “losers” in a given market. This creates an overall vulnerable industry, because net gains are lost in the pursuit of exclusivity.

    Exclusivity also breeds a lack of resilience. That’s because the points of failure are centralised.

    Risk is better managed with additional oversight, transparency and accountability. Collaborations across industry rely on these processes to work together effectively.

    Centralising the AI tech stack within one organisation eliminates external scrutiny, because it reduces interactions with external providers of products and services. In turn this can lead to a company behaving in a more risky manner.

    Regulatory bodies can also provide external scrutiny.

    However, the current push to deregulate AI is widening the gap between technology development and regulation.

    It is also allowing for big tech companies to become increasingly opaque. A lack of transparency raises issues about organisational practices; in the context of AI, practices around data are of particular concern.

    The trend towards vertical integration in the AI sector will further increase this opacity and heighten existing issues around transparency.

    Zena Assaad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Google is going ‘all in’ on AI. It’s part of a troubling trend in big tech – https://theconversation.com/google-is-going-all-in-on-ai-its-part-of-a-troubling-trend-in-big-tech-257563

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: Trump, tariffs and the Middle East are looming challenges for Albanese

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Australia these days receives invitations to big-league international conferences. And so Anthony Albanese will be off soon to the G7 meeting in Alberta, Canada, on June 15-17.

    For the prime minister, what’s most important about this trip is not so much the conference itself, but his expected first meeting with US President Donald Trump, either on the sidelines of the G7 or in a visit to Washington while he’s in North America.

    Nothing is locked in. But it’s impossible to think such a meeting won’t take place. The Australian PM certainly needs to have his first face-to-face talks with the US president sooner rather than later.

    During the election, there was much argument over whether Albanese or Peter Dutton would be better at dealing with the difficult and unpredictable Trump, in particular, in trying to extract some concessions on his tariffs

    Australia has been hit by Trump’s 25% tariff on aluminium and steel, as well as by his general 10% tariff.

    The Trump tariff regime has been a chaotic story of decisions, pauses and changes of mind. In the latest drama, the United States Court of International Trade on Wednesday blocked Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs (as far as Australia goes, this relates to the 10% general tariff but not that on aluminium and steel). The court found the president had exceeded his powers. The administration immediately appealed the decision.

    We can’t know how this imbroglio will play out. But assuming Australia will still be confronting some tariffs, Albanese’s pitch for special treatment will be made around what we can do for the Americans with our large deposits of critical minerals and rare earths. These are vital for the production of a huge range of items, including for defence purposes.

    Australia’s ambassador to the US, Kevin Rudd, speaking at a conference in Detroit this week, pointed out that the two countries already had a draft accord on these minerals.

    “What we need to work out […] is how do we collaborate both on the mining, the extraction, the transportation and the processing and the stockpiling to make our economies resilient, including what you’ll need for future battery manufacture,” Rudd said.

    When Albanese does get together with Trump, he will have the advantage of meeting him as the big winner of the recent election. Trump said of him post-election, “He’s been very, very nice to me, very respectful to me”.

    But that’s no iron-clad guarantee of success. With the US president, there are always multiple “known unknowns”.

    For Albanese, success on the tariff front would be important, but not, of course, as important politically as it would have been pre-election.

    A range of other issues will also be on the agenda when the two meet: including progress on AUKUS.

    The president would no doubt be pleased the government is in the process of booting the Chinese lessee out of the Port of Darwin (with American investment firm Cerberus expressing an interest in taking over, although the government’s preference is for the port to be in Australian hands).

    Trump might not think, however, that the government’s commitment to defence spending, due to reach 2.3% of gross domestic product by 2033-34, is enough. The Americans would prefer a level of 3% of GDP.

    No doubt the Middle East would also be canvassed in such talks. While Middle East policy is not a frontline issue in the Australian-American relationship, the Albanese government struggles at home to strike the right stance.

    Since the October 2023 Hamas attack on Israel, Australia has seen a deterioration in local social cohesion. Antisemitism spiked to a degree not anticipated; pro-Palestinian demonstrations became a regular and controversial feature. The government found itself under political fire from the Jewish community and pro-Palestinian critics alike.

    With the Israeli government disregarding international criticism, and the humanitarian crisis in Gaza growing more dire, Albanese this week toughened his rhetoric.

    On Monday he said: “It is outrageous that there be a blockade of food and supplies to people who are in need in Gaza. We have made that very clear by signing up to international statements”. He described Israel’s actions as “completely unacceptable”.

    Within Labor, the pressure to go further has been mounting. It is on two fronts. Some want sanctions against Israel (beyond the existing sanctions in relation to settlers on the West Bank). There is also the issue of whether Australia should recognise a Palestinian state ahead of a two-state solution.

    Ed Husic, a Muslim, was relatively outspoken even while he was in cabinet. Since being dumped from the ministry, he is much freer to put forth his view.

    This week, he was calling for imposing sanctions if other nations were to do so. “I think we should be actively considering […] drawing up a list of targeted sanctions where we can join with others”.

    Significantly, former Labor Foreign Minister Gareth Evans was another advocate, saying sanctions “would send a powerful message”.



    Read more:
    Gareth Evans: the case for recognising Palestine

    But when the question of sanctions was put to Albanese, he was dismissive, raising the issue of substantive outcomes.

    At the Labor party’s grassroots level, there is strong pressure for a more pro-Palestinian approach.

    It is not unreasonable to think that would strike a sympathetic chord with both Albanese and Foreign Minister Penny Wong, but they are very cognisant of the politics – both international and local.

    Wong a year ago raised the possibility of recognising Palestine statehood as a step along a peace process, ahead of a two-state solution.

    Australia’s ambassador to the United Nations, James Larson, last week delivered an Australian statement to a preparatory meeting for a June conference in New York on “the question of Palestine and the implementation of the two-state solution”.

    Echoing Wong’s earlier position, he said: “A two-state solution – a Palestinian state alongside the state of Israel – is the only hope of breaking the endless cycle of violence, and the only hope of a just and enduring peace, for Israelis and Palestinians alike.”

    “Like other partners, Australia no longer sees recognition of a Palestinian state as only occurring at the end of negotiations, but rather as a way of building momentum towards a two-state solution.”

    Evans, in an article for Pearls and Irritations this week, says the “strongest and most constructive contribution” Australia could make on the issue would be to announce at the conference “that we are immediately recognising Palestinian statehood: not just as the final outcome of a political settlement but as a way of kickstarting it”.

    The government is tight-lipped about what stand it will take for the June 17-20 conference, saying it doesn’t have details yet and is unable to say who will attend for Australia. It says it is not being framed as a conference where countries are expected to make pledges.

    Nevertheless, many within Labor will be watching closely whether the coming weeks will see any change in Australia’s Middle East policy. But that, in turn, would depend on whether others make any moves, because Australia wants to have company from like-minded countries.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grattan on Friday: Trump, tariffs and the Middle East are looming challenges for Albanese – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-trump-tariffs-and-the-middle-east-are-looming-challenges-for-albanese-257333

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –