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  • MIL-Evening Report: Can a wooden spoon really stop a pot from boiling over? Here’s the science

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jay Deagon, Senior Lecturer of Home Economics, CQUniversity Australia

    Alexanderstock23/Shutterstock

    One moment, your spaghetti is happily bubbling away in the pot. A minute later, after busying yourself with something else, you turn around to find a hot mess all over your stove.

    Boiling liquid can rocket up very quickly, and we often only have a split second to act. But are there ways to prevent the pot boiling over in the first place? One kitchen hack you may have seen on social media is to place a wooden spoon across the top of the pot.

    Does it work? As with many kitchen science questions, there is an answer – and there’s lots of nuance, too.

    In short, it will work, but not for long periods of time. Let’s dig into the why.

    What causes the bubbles?

    Interestingly, a pot of rapidly boiling pure water will not rise up the sides of the pot.

    Ingredients added to the water are the culprits for overflow and spillage. Pots of pasta, rice, porridge or milk are the most prone to boiling over and making a mess. A heavy stew is less likely to bubble over – unless you overfill the pot.

    In cookery, the key food molecules are water, carbohydrates, proteins, lipids (the collective term for fats and oils) and, to a lesser extent, vitamins and minerals.

    The main culprits for rapid boiling and overflow are carbohydrates and proteins. When carbohydrates or proteins (or a combination of both) come into contact with heated water molecules, their properties change and structures rearrange.

    Changes can happen quickly if the heat is high. Excited by lots of heat, the water molecules begin to boil rapidly. As this occurs, bubbles form.

    Why do the bubbles rise so quickly?

    The carbohydrates involved in bubbling up and messing up your kitchen are primarily plant starches. Pasta or porridge products are derived from plant starches such as wheat, rice, potato or corn. If you’re boiling anything with milk, a protein called casein can contribute to the bubbles, too.

    Casein and starches are known as colloids. “Colloidal dispersion” means that not all such particles will dissolve into a water solution, because some of these particles are too large. As bubbles form, the larger starch and/or protein particles start to coat the bubbles.

    For pasta water or porridge, the heat and starch solution starts to form a gel. This gel becomes sticky and, depending on the type of starch and other additives, the temperature of the boiling solution can rise above 100°C.

    So, they’re not just bubbles – they’re hot, sticky bubbles. Filled with air and coated with a sticky starch gel, as the solution continues to boil, the bubbles build on top of each other and rise up the sides of the pot.

    It’s a little different with milk. Have you ever noticed a film across the top of boiled milk? Milk skin is formed by heated casein. When heated, the casein can become quite strong – like plastic – and coat each bubble. Milk bubbles are smaller and become more of a foam, but they can still rise quickly.

    Boiling milk forms smaller bubbles – more like a foam – because of the cassein in the milk.
    Ahanov Michael/Shutterstock

    So, how does a wooden spoon stop the bubbles?

    Placing a wooden spoon over a boiling pot acts as an interruption to the bubbles – it lowers the surface temperature and provides a porous surface to burst the bubbles. This stops them from climbing over the edge of the pot.

    To understand why, picture another porous surface: the structure of a sponge. Because the sponge has a lot of holes in it, you can blow air through a dry sponge. However, air does not pass through a wet sponge because the holes are filled with water.

    Wood is a porous material, and a dry wooden spoon is more porous than when it’s wet. On contact with the wood, the air in the bubbles is released.

    But you can’t just leave a wooden spoon over the pot indefinitely and expect it to not boil over. As the spoon is exposed to heat, moisture, sticky starch or casein bubbles, it will soon become the same temperature as the liquid. That means it won’t reduce the surface temperature any more, nor be porous enough to burst bubbles.

    This is why some people claim the spoon hack doesn’t work – because it has a limited window of effectiveness.

    What should I do instead?

    Stirring the pot or using the wooden spoon as a fan would work equally as well.

    Better yet, try not to get distracted in the kitchen and select the correct kitchen tools for the job: use a bigger pot, and turn down the heat so it’s not just going full blast.

    We like to treat working in the kitchen like a meditation. Remain present and in the moment. If you do get distracted, turn the stove to its lowest setting, switch it off or remove the pot from the heat. The phrase “a watched pot never boils” doesn’t count in this situation. Indeed, a watchful eye on the pot is essential.

    Jay Deagon is affiliated with the International Federation for Home Economics and the Home Economics Institute of Australia.

    Gemma Mann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can a wooden spoon really stop a pot from boiling over? Here’s the science – https://theconversation.com/can-a-wooden-spoon-really-stop-a-pot-from-boiling-over-heres-the-science-252519

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Locked up then locked out: how NZ’s bank rules make life for ex-prisoners even harder

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Victoria Stace, Senior Lecturer, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    FotoDax/Shutterstock

    People coming out of prison in New Zealand face multiple hurdles reintegrating into society – starting with one of the most fundamental elements of modern life: getting a bank account.

    Not having a bank account can make it difficult to receive wages or a benefit, and to get a job or rent accommodation.

    In our new research we spoke with financial mentors and others working with prisoners on release, along with the Department of Corrections and banks, to better understand the hurdles for ex-prisoners.

    We found not having a bank account on release was common and that it hindered reintegration efforts. It also appears to directly increase the chance of an ex-prisoner returning to crime. As a representative from Māori social services organisation Te Pā explained,

    It is really important to get them a bank account if we want them to stay on the right side of the law. It is a key part of being part of society. [They] need to be part of mainstream financial services. If not, then [they are] much more likely to go back into crime.

    The relationship between not having access to banking and getting back into crime was also noted in a 2016 report from the Salvation Army. And a financial mentor told us the current situation was “making it hard for people to not re-offend”.

    A fundamental need

    Our research is spread over two reports commissioned by financial services organisation FinCap and includes 40 interviews with people in the banking industry, financial mentoring organisations, community groups and the Department of Corrections.

    The first report outlining our data was released in 2023, and the second in April 2025. The latter outlined the steps Corrections and the banking sector need to take to remove the hurdles faced by ex-prisoners trying to access a bank account.

    Approximately 10,000 individuals were held in a New Zealand prison in 2024 at any one time, and around half of these were sentenced prisoners with the rest on remand. New Zealand’s reimprisonment rate is high, with about 30% of first-time prisoners likely to return to prison.

    The Reserve Bank has argued that broad financial inclusion is important for society as it helps promote prosperity and contributes to a productive economy. Part of this involves ensuring everyone has access to a bank account.

    Without access to a bank account, ex-prisoners struggle to get a job, secure housing or receive a benefit.
    Siriporn Pimpo/Shutterstock

    Hurdles to access

    There seem to be several things hindering ex-prisoners’ access to banking, with New Zealand’s anti-money laundering rules a major problem.

    The law requires banks to complete certain checks before a person is allowed to open an account. Currently, banks require two forms of ID and a verifiable address.

    People just out of prison often don’t have these. We found other hurdles include limited access to the internet, banks being unwilling to take on this group of customers, and ex-prisoners’ lack of confidence to engage with banks.

    But there are ways we can make access to bank accounts easier for ex-prisoners.

    Putting the onus on Corrections to proactively assist people due for release to get whatever documents the banks require, and to apply for the account to be set up before release, would be a good start. But it will likely require additional resourcing for the department.

    A recent discussion paper from the Council of Financial Regulators has suggested the introduction of transactional accounts – a new type of bank account requiring less in the way of formal ID.

    Basic transactional accounts could help ex-prisoners by making it easier to meet bank requirements. These would be a basic account that could receive wages and benefits and enable payments, but not provide credit.

    It could also have limits on the amounts held in the account, which would minimise money laundering risks.

    The major banks also have a key role to play in making change happen. Only one major bank – Westpac – has been willing to offer bank accounts to ex-prisoners so far, with a special programme that allows people in prison (both those still not due for release and those on their way out) to open an account. This has been very helpful for those who have had access to it.

    During our research, Corrections emphasised the importance of major banks acting as default providers of banking services to prisoners and ex-prisoners (similar to default providers of KiwiSaver).

    This approach would aim to ensure prisoners had the freedom to choose their banking provider. Encouraging participation in such a programme was seen as an opportunity for banks to demonstrate corporate social responsibility.

    Victoria Stace does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Locked up then locked out: how NZ’s bank rules make life for ex-prisoners even harder – https://theconversation.com/locked-up-then-locked-out-how-nzs-bank-rules-make-life-for-ex-prisoners-even-harder-255110

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Crikey, ChatGPT’s gone bush! How AI is learning the art of Aussie slang

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ross Yates, Lecturer, Project Management, Edith Cowan University

    Shutterstock

    Ever tried to explain why a sausage would be referred to as a “snag” while overseas, or why the toilet is the “dunny”? If you found this challenging, spare a thought for large language models (LLMs) such as ChatGPT, which have to contend with slang terms from all over the world.

    Is it possible for AI to decipher the strange “code” that is Australian slang, given all the nuance and cultural references loaded into it?

    Cracking the code

    LLMs don’t “understand” language like we do. Rather, they are trained on massive quantities of online text data (including websites, news articles and books) to learn patterns between words. They can then mimic these patterns to produce human-like responses.

    So it follows that unless AI systems can mingle with people in informal real-world settings – or can access TV shows such as Kath and Kim – they’re unlikely to grasp the finer points of our real-world conversations.

    Take words such as “cooked” and “random”, which can have different meanings in different contexts. Or consider the phrase “flat out like a lizard drinking”. What could it mean? Is the speaker comparing themselves to a thirsty reptile sprawled out under a dripping tap?

    The phrase actually refers to being very busy, by using the visual metaphor of a lizard’s fast-moving tongue. While an AI may not make this connection, many people living in Australia will have a lifetime of experience that helps them understand the message being conveyed.

    To further complicate matters, Aussie slang continues to evolve, and doesn’t always follow the rules of grammar and structure.

    Slang phrases tend to follow a looser sentence structure and are often filled with idioms, metaphors, abbreviations and culturally-specific humour. Australian language expert Roland Sussex estimates we use more than 5,000 abbreviations and diminutives.

    Slang also changes from one generation to the next. For instance, one 2010 study suggests older Australians are more likely to shorten words with an “ie” or “o” sound, such as “truckie” instead of “truck driver” and “ambo” instead of ambulance. Young Australians, meanwhile, are more likely to clip words or add an “s”, such as “mobes” for mobile phone.

    Are we there yet?

    Can AI chatbots learn Aussie slang? There is evidence many are already developing a broad understanding of the most frequently used terms and their current interpretations.

    For example, “give it a crack” and “mozzie” are both understood by Amazon’s Alexa.

    In 2021, Alexa partnered with local celebrity Sophie Monk and comedy duo The Inspired Unemployed to incorporate a large collection of Aussie slang into its vocabulary. The personal AI assistant even comes with an Aussie accent feature.

    Keeping up-to-date with changing Aussie slang terms, interpretations and regional dialects is a resource-intensive undertaking. Nonetheless, ChatGPT and other LLMs have made progress on this front, as this example shows:


    ChatGPT/screenshot

    Some chatbots, such as Perplexity AI, can scour the internet in real-time to try and find the best possible response to an input.

    Trying to peek inside

    LLMs continue to advance in their sophistication and capabilities. The most recent models such as GPT 4o, DeepSeek and Claude 3.7 even incorporate “thinking” to tackle more complex tasks by displaying an internal “thought process” before revealing their answer.

    However, research has shown many AI models, when prompted, won’t always reveal the full “chain-of-thought” they followed to arrive at a particular answer.

    This makes it harder for us to understand the models’ intentions and reasoning processes. So while they may be learning to adapt and respond to our niche slang and cultural references, in many ways they remain a black box.

    Beyond that, AI models can only regurgitate our own slang back to us. They can’t grasp why it is meaningful. Nor do they understand the important role slang plays in our society.

    Aussie slang is born out of millions of interactions and conversations – and LLMs can only ever respond to our use of it. To create it remains an entirely human endeavour.

    Ross Yates does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Crikey, ChatGPT’s gone bush! How AI is learning the art of Aussie slang – https://theconversation.com/crikey-chatgpts-gone-bush-how-ai-is-learning-the-art-of-aussie-slang-253939

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: AI systems are built on English – but not the kind most of the world speaks

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Celeste Rodriguez Louro, Associate professor, Chair of Linguistics and Director of Language Lab, The University of Western Australia

    Reihaneh Golpayegani / Better Images of AI, CC BY

    An estimated 90% of the training data for current generative AI systems stems from English. However, English is an international lingua franca with about 1.5 billion speakers worldwide, and countless varieties.

    So whose English is today’s technology based on? The answer is primarily the English of mainstream America.

    This is no accident. Mainstream American English is entrenched in the digital infrastructure of the internet, in Silicon Valley’s corporate priorities, and in the data sets that fuel everything from autocorrect to AI-generated synthetic text.

    The consequence? AI models produce a monolithic version of English that erases variation, excludes minoritised and regional voices, and reinforces unequal power dynamics.

    The hegemony of mainstream American English

    The proliferation of American English online is a result of historical, economic and technological factors. The United States has been a dominant force in the development of the internet, content creation, and the rise of tech giants such as Google, Meta, Microsoft and OpenAI.

    Unsurprisingly, the linguistic norms embedded in products by these companies are overwhelmingly mainstream American.

    A recent study found that speakers of non-mainstream English were frustrated with the “homogeneity of AI accents” in voice-cloning and speech-generation technologies. One participant noted the predominant mainstream American accents in the voices available, stating the technologies had been built “with some other people in mind”.

    Mainstream varieties of English have long reigned as the “standard” against which other varieties are weighed.

    To take a single example from the US, linguistics research by John Baugh found that using different accents can determine people’s access to goods and services. When Baugh called different landlords about housing advertised in the local newspaper, using a mainstream accent procured him several housing inspections while using African-American and Latino accents did not.

    The prestige of mainstream English also underpins algorithmic decisions. The models behind tools such as autocorrect, voice-to-text, or even AI writing assistants are most often trained on mainstream American-centric data. This is often scraped from the web, where US-based media, forums and platforms dominate.

    This means variations in grammar, syntax and vocabulary from other varieties of English are systematically ignored, misinterpreted or outright “corrected”.

    Whose English is perceived as adding value?

    The stakes of this linguistic bias in favour of mainstream English become even higher when AI systems are deployed around the world.

    If an AI tutor fails to understand a Nigerian English construction, who bears the cost? If a job application written in Indian English is marked down by an AI-powered resume scanner, what are the consequences? If an Australian First Nations elder’s oral history is transcribed by voice recognition software and the system fails to capture culturally significant terms, what knowledge is lost or misrepresented?

    These questions are unfolding in real time as governments, educational institutions and corporations adopt AI technologies at scale.

    Englishes, not English

    The idea that there is one “good” or “correct” English is a myth. English is spoken in diverse forms across regions, shaped by local societies, cultures, histories and identities.

    As Noongar writer and educator Glenys Collard and I have written, Aboriginal English has “its own structure, rules and the same potential as any other linguistic variety” and the same is true of other forms of English.

    Indian English, for example, has lexical innovations such as “prepone” (the opposite of postpone). Singapore English (Singlish) integrates particles and syntactic features from Malay, Hokkien and Tamil.

    These are not “broken” forms of English. Each community where English was imposed has gone on to make English its own.

    English, and language more generally, is never static. It adapts to meet the needs of an ever-changing society and its speakers.

    Yet in AI development, this linguistic diversity is often treated as noise rather than signal. Non-standardised varieties are underrepresented in training datasets, excluded from annotation schemes, and rarely feature in evaluation benchmarks.

    This results in an AI ecosystem that is multilingual in theory, but monolingual in practice.

    Toward linguistic justice in AI

    So, what would it look like to build AI systems that recognise and respect a range of different forms of English?

    A shift in mindset is required, from prescribing “correct” language to including many varieties of language. What we need are systems that accommodate linguistic variation.

    This may involve supporting community-led efforts to document and digitise linguistic varieties on their own terms, bearing in mind not all linguistic varieties should be digitised or documented.

    Collaboration across disciplines is also important. It requires linguists, technologists, educators and community leaders working together to ensure AI development is grounded in principles of linguistic justice.

    The goal is not to “fix” language but to create technology that produces just outcomes. The focus should be on changing the technology, not the speaker.

    Embracing Englishes

    English has been a powerful vehicle of empire, but it has also been a tool of resistance, creativity and solidarity. Around the world, speakers have taken the language and made it their own. AI-enabled systems should be built to be as inclusive of this variability as possible.

    So next time your phone tells you to “correct” your spelling, or an AI chatbot misunderstands your phrasing, ask yourself: whose English is it trying to model? And whose English is being left out?

    Celeste Rodriguez Louro has received funding from the Australian Research Council. She is also working with Google on a project seeking to make voice-operated technologies inclusive for First Nations people in Australia.

    – ref. AI systems are built on English – but not the kind most of the world speaks – https://theconversation.com/ai-systems-are-built-on-english-but-not-the-kind-most-of-the-world-speaks-249710

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: We’ve heard the promises. Now it’s up to Labor to deliver its housing, wages and other economic policies

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Cull, Associate Professor of Accounting and Financial Planning, Western Sydney University

    With a convincing win for a second term of government, the pressure is now on the new Labor government to deliver the economic policies central to its win.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is wary of breaking promises and now has the opportunity to back this up. So, what are the key economic policies affecting everyday Australians that Labor is now set to deliver?

    In his victory speech, Albanese said Labor would govern for every Australian “who deserves the security of a roof over their head or dreams of owning their own home”.

    First home buyers

    Labor has budgeted A$10 billion to help more Australians buy their first home. This involves providing an extra 100,000 new homes. The government plans to work with the states from July to identify where they should be located.

    Building these homes is expected to take eight years – so the scheme will not be completed during the government’s second term. It will need to work quickly to ensure many of these homes are built while Labor is still in office.

    Helping this is Labor’s policy to increase subsidies to housing apprentices and free TAFE education.

    Also assisting first home buyers is the expansion of the 5% deposit Home Guarantee Scheme. This will allow more first home buyers to buy a home with only a 5% deposit without paying Lenders Mortgage Insurance.

    The expansion will remove income thresholds and increase eligible property price caps to better reflect the market. Further, more people will be able to apply for the scheme.

    The government plans to extend existing and introduce several new policies to help more people buy a home.
    Fizkes/Shutterstock

    In addition, the government is expanding its Help to Buy Scheme by increasing income and property price caps. This enables those on lower incomes to buy a home with a deposit as small as 2%. The government will pay for up to 40% of the cost on their behalf which will ultimately be paid back over time or when the house is sold.

    Both the Help to Buy Scheme and Home Guarantee Scheme are extensions of Labor’s existing policies, so the government should be able to deliver this relatively quickly.

    Increasing supply for all

    Labor’s housing policies are not limited to first home buyers. To further increase housing supply, Labor plans to invest $54 million to speed up the construction of prefabricated and modular homes covered by a new national certification system.

    In addition, a $1.5 billion infrastructure program to speed up the building of roads, sewage and water connections should also help increase supply.

    Labor is on track to build 55,000 social and affordable homes through the Housing Australia Future Fund and the Social Housing Accelerator. Labor is also offering Build to Rent tax incentives to increase affordable housing rental supply by up to 80,000 new rental properties.

    The government has also promised to work with states and territories to strengthen renters’ rights.

    Crisis housing

    Labor has also made promises for those needing crisis housing.

    For women and children fleeing family and domestic violence and for people experiencing homelessness, there is a $1 billion program to provide more crisis and transitional accommodation. There is also $6.2 million of grants for homelessness support.

    Workers’ pay rise

    Labor has advocated to the Fair Work Commission for a wage increase above inflation for workers in low-paid jobs, such as cleaners, retail workers and early childhood educators.

    With inflation currently at 2.4%, we can expect the minimum wage to rise to at least $24.68 an hour. The Fair Work Commission’s next Annual Wage Review should take place before the end of the financial year, with any changes likely to be effective from July.

    Labor has backed an above-inflation wage increase for workers in low paid industries.
    Dejan Dunjerski/Shutterstock

    These wage increases are in addition to the substantial pay increase for aged care nurses as part of the Fair Work Commission’s Aged Care Work Value Case decision.

    Tax cuts

    The much-discussed tax cuts, costing $17 billion, will reduce the 16% tax rate to 15% (for income between $18,201 and $45,000) in the 2026–27 financial year, and to 14% in 2027–28 – just in time for the next election.

    This will save taxpayers $268 and $536, respectively. These tax cuts will be welcomed by many and are likely to increase the labour participation rate. However, more tax reform may be needed to address bracket creep and improve equity in the tax system.

    In addition, Labor has promised an automatic instant tax deduction for work-related expenses for labour income taxpayers.

    This will take effect from the 2026–27 financial year to reduce the burden of record-keeping on taxpayers. It was also promoted as a way of “helping Australians keep more of what they earn”.

    Medicare levy

    While low wages are expected to increase and taxes to decrease, Labor also has plans to increase the low-income thresholds for the Medicare levy by 4.7% for singles, families, and seniors and pensioners from July 1 2024.

    This should bring immediate relief to those on lower incomes who will be exempt from paying the Medicare levy or pay a reduced levy when lodging their returns for the 2024–25 financial year.

    So, what’s next?

    Many of these policy announcements are a step in the right direction – the question lies around their ability to be implemented.

    Albanese admitted in his victory speech that he is an optimist and his aim is to ensure nobody is left behind.

    Once the election hype settles, Labor will need to prove it is delivering on its promises. And, of course, these policies will ultimately have to be paid for. How Labor approaches this in the longer term will become a talking point for the next election.

    Michelle Cull is a member of CPA Australia, the Financial Advice Association Australia and President Elect of the Academy of Financial Services in the United States. Michelle is an academic member of UniSuper’s Consultative Committee. Michelle Cull co-founded the Western Sydney University Tax Clinic which has received funding from the Australian Taxation Office as part of the National Tax Clinic Program. Michelle has previously volunteered as Chair of the Macarthur Advisory Council for the Salvation Army Australia.

    – ref. We’ve heard the promises. Now it’s up to Labor to deliver its housing, wages and other economic policies – https://theconversation.com/weve-heard-the-promises-now-its-up-to-labor-to-deliver-its-housing-wages-and-other-economic-policies-255865

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What are the key risk factors for developing knee osteoarthritis? We reviewed the evidence

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina Abdel Shaheed, Associate Professor, School of Public Health, University of Sydney

    Osteoarthritis is the most common joint disease, affecting more than 3 million Australians and over 500 million people worldwide.

    The knee is the most commonly affected joint, but osteoarthritis can also affect other joints including the hips and hands. The condition causes painful and stiff joints.

    For someone with knee osteoarthritis, simple activities that many people take for granted such as walking, going up and down stairs or squatting can be very challenging.

    There’s currently no cure for osteoarthritis. Most available treatments, such as exercise, walking aids and medicines (including paracetamol and non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs), focus on managing symptoms. But it’s important to consider how we can prevent knee osteoarthritis in the first place.

    With this in mind, we undertook a systematic review to summarise the risk factors for developing knee osteoarthritis. Our findings, published today in the journal Osteoarthritis and Cartilage, can help us better understand how to lower the risk of this condition.

    What we found

    We gathered data from studies which followed people over time, to see which risk factors were associated with developing knee osteoarthritis. We included a total of 131 studies, involving more than 5 million people.

    We identified more than 150 factors that influenced the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis.

    Some key factors which increased the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis included being overweight or obese, past knee injury and occupational physical activity such as lifting heavy objects and shift work.

    We also found several other possible risk factors, including:

    • eating large amounts of ultra-processed foods (which include “junk foods”, sugary drinks and processed meats)

    • poor sleep quality (for example, sleeping less than six hours a day or having 1–2 restless nights per week)

    • feeling depressed.

    Being overweight or obese and past knee injury together accounted for 14% of the overall risk of developing knee osteoarthritis.

    In other words, if we were able to completely remove these two risk factors, we could potentially reduce the incidence of knee osteoarthritis in the population by 14%.

    Females had almost double the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis, and older age was slightly related to developing knee osteoarthritis.

    Osteoarthritis of the knee affects millions of people worldwide.
    Towfiqu barbhuiya/Pexels

    Protective factors

    On the other hand, we found some factors may lower the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis. These included following a Mediterranean diet (which includes plenty of vegetables, olive oil, nuts, fruit and healthy fats found in fish), and following a diet higher in fibre.

    Avoiding the things which increase the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis such as a diet high in ultra-processed foods, knee injury, weight gain and heavy lifting can also help a person reduce their risk of developing the condition.

    Exercise is an effective treatment for knee osteoarthritis. It can reduce pain and improve function.

    There was not enough information in our study to determine what types of physical activity (for example, walking, running, swimming) and how much time spent doing these activities could lower the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis, so this is an important area for future research.

    How can we explain these links?

    The studies we included did not generally explore the possible mechanisms linking key risk factors with the development of knee osteoarthritis.

    However other research may provide some helpful insights. Knee injury can lead to instability of the knee joint and additional wear on the knee which can lead to knee osteoarthritis. Similarly, occupational physical activity such as kneeling, squatting, climbing or heavy lifting can increase the risk of wear and tear on the knee.

    Poor sleep has been linked to weight gain and depression.

    The duration and quality of sleep has been found to affect how much we eat and the hormones responsible for regulating metabolism. Depression has been linked to reduced physical activity which can lead to weight gain. Carrying extra weight can increase the load on the knee and contribute to knee osteoarthritis.

    Shift work can lead to bad food choices and lack of sleep, which in turn can increase the risk of knee osteoarthritis.

    So it seems that while the risk factors we found may be contributing individually to the development of knee osteoarthritis, they may also be interacting together to increase the risk.

    It’s not clear why women are at greater risk of developing knee osteoarthritis. However this is likely to be due to a combination of factors, including lifestyle, biological and hormonal factors.

    A Mediterranean diet is high in polyphenols, which can reduce inflammation in the body and destruction of cartilage. It may lower the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis in this way.

    Lifestyle changes could reduce the risk of knee osteoarthritis.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Most risk factors are modifiable

    There were some limitations with the available evidence. Most studies were based on populations from the United States, or did not report on ethnicity. We know little about the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis in certain groups such as people from Hispanic, African and Southeast Asian backgrounds. We need more studies exploring risk factors in other countries and populations.

    Nonetheless, a review like this allows us to better understand what can be done to lower the risk of developing knee osteoarthritis.

    We found most risk factors associated with developing knee osteoarthritis are modifiable, which means they can be changed or better managed with healthy diet and lifestyle choices. Eating healthy, maintaining a healthy weight and taking proactive steps to prevent injuries in the workplace and sporting communities can potentially lower a person’s risk of developing the condition.

    Public health strategies aimed at encouraging healthy eating and weight loss (for example, subsidised nutrition programs and education programs starting from a young age to promote optimal diet and physical activity) could reduce the burden of knee osteoarthritis and have broader health benefits as well.

    Programs like these, as well as reducing heavy lifting in the workplace where possible, should be the focus of government strategies to address the burden of this painful condition globally.

    Christina Abdel Shaheed holds grants from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Medical Research Future Fund.

    David Hunter receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Medical Research Future Fund.

    Lyn March is on the executive committee of the Global Alliance for Musculoskeletal Health (a pro-bono role). This alliance advocates to the World Health Organization for a global strategy for addressing musculoskeletal health that includes promoting osteoarthritis prevention.

    Vicky Duong receives funding from Lenity Australia and the Medical Research Future Fund.

    – ref. What are the key risk factors for developing knee osteoarthritis? We reviewed the evidence – https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-key-risk-factors-for-developing-knee-osteoarthritis-we-reviewed-the-evidence-253722

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor has the chance to do something big in its second term. What policy reforms should it take on?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yee-Fui Ng, Associate Professor, Faculty of Law, Monash University

    Dan Breckwoldt/Shutterstock

    Labor’s historic election victory means the Albanese government has a rare opportunity to pursue a big, bold reform agenda. The scale of the victory all but guarantees a third term in office after the next election in 2028, and entrenches Anthony Albanese’s authority as prime minister.

    The government may opt to play it safe and limit its legislative agenda to the policies it took to the election. But if it was to chance its arm, which substantial changes should it pursue that could make a real difference to Australia’s long-term future?

    We asked three experts to nominate the top policy priorities for a second Albanese government. Here are their responses.

    Yee-Fui Ng

    Associate Professor of Law, Monash University

    Advancing Voice and Truth with Indigenous Australians should be a priority. This would build on the comprehensive rejection of the politics of division by the Australian people.

    After the defeat of the Voice referendum on Indigenous constitutional recognition, the Coalition reignited the culture wars by criticising “woke” schools and Peter Dutton’s attack on Indigenous welcome to country at Anzac Day ceremonies.

    But that negative message did not resonate with modern multicultural Australia, with its diverse population and identities. Anthony Albanese and Penny Wong’s victory speeches on Saturday night emphasised a kinder and more inclusive politics, where all Australians are recognised and no one is left behind.

    The Labor government now has a strong mandate to take more significant action on Indigenous issues. Aboriginal people experience higher rates of incarceration, and significant disparities in health, education and employment compared to non-Indigenous Australians. Reform measures could be introduced through legislation, rather than by trying to change the constitution.

    Closing the gap and revisiting Voice and Truth should be a priority for the second Albanese government.
    ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

    Another pressing reform is bolder action on climate change. There is a growing urgency to tackle the effects of global warming, with an increase in environmental degradation and natural disasters globally.

    Peter Dutton’s proposal to build seven nuclear reactors on Australian soil was comprehensively repudiated at the election.

    European countries have harnessed the potential of regenerative energies, with the proliferation of wind farms and electric cars. Australia needs to lift its game and be on the same path towards a more sustainable future.

    We are custodians of the Earth for future generations. It is incumbent on the Labor government to put forward a stronger agenda for a cleaner, more liveable planet.

    Helen Hodgson

    Professor at Curtin Law School and Curtin Business School, Curtin University

    Second terms are often regarded as the best time strategically for governments to legislate difficult, but necessary reforms. It will be no different for the re-elected Albanese government, which will command a large majority in the new parliament.

    Genuine tax reform should be a priority for Labor over the next three years, starting with a reduction in the 50% capital gains tax (CGT) discount and taxing superannuation withdrawals on high balance accounts.

    While many people consider negative gearing to be the main concern in relation to investment in housing, reforming the CGT discount would be a more effective way to address increases in housing prices.

    Negative gearing is only effective as a wealth-building strategy if there is a payoff at the end through the concessional taxation on the capital gain. Reducing the CGT discount would limit the appeal of negative gearing.

    It would also flow through to other forms of investment that might not be delivering productivity gains, including some investments within family trusts.

    Reforming CGT would revisit a contentious Labor policy that was roundly rejected at the 2019 election. But the housing crisis has deepened since then and many voters would now see an overhaul as necessary and timely.

    The second recommendation I would make would be to address the inequalities that arise from tax exempt superannuation. Prior to 2007, withdrawals from super funds were taxed concessionally, but were not fully exempt.

    In the retirement phase, members are required to withdraw a minimum amount from their superannuation accounts. But these days they do it totally tax-free.

    The government should consider taxing these withdrawals, subject to a tax credit that reflects the tax paid by the fund prior to retirement phase. It would also be subject to the existing Seniors and Pensioners Tax Offset, which can reduce the amount of tax paid.

    The rates of these credits could be tweaked to ensure that only those in the wealthiest 20% are affected. This would level the playing field so the tax payable by most retirees with modest superannuation balances would fall within these two concessions.

    These two reforms would help reduce wealth inequality in Australia and raise funds for social spending, including increases in the JobSeeker payment.

    Intifar Chowdhury

    Lecturer in Government, Flinders University

    Despite being one of the most pressing concerns for young Australians, mental health did not get much airtime during the election campaign.

    This is striking given the evidence. According to the 2024 Australian Youth Barometer, 98% of young people aged 18–24 report feelings of anxiety or depression, and nearly 40% experience a diagnosable mental disorder in any given year. These aren’t fringe numbers, they are endemic.

    Labor has pledged $1 billion to expand access to free public mental health care, with a welcome focus on young people. But funding more services is only part of the solution.

    Experts argue that simply increasing the number of people given access to treatment and support won’t go far enough if those people only receive short term or fragmented care. A more meaningful step would be to double the number of free sessions available to people suffering complex mental health needs. Good care takes time, trust and continuity.

    More fundamentally, the current policy focus remains too clinical. By contrast, the most effective models for youth care are more holistic. Many young people grappling with mental illness are also dealing with unstable housing, drug use, educational disruption, or loneliness.

    Psychosocial supports such as social workers, peer mentors and housing liaisons, are essential to wraparound care. Yet, they remain underfunded.

    The new Medicare Mental Health Centres and Youth Specialist Care Centres, which were promised by Labor during the campaign, should not just offer more of the same. Policymakers must rethink the model entirely: multidisciplinary, community-driven, culturally safe, and youth-informed.

    They must also address why young men, who make up a majority of suicide deaths, are the least likely to seek help.

    Mental health policy should be local, flexible, and expansive. Right now, it still feels centralised, cautious, and underdone.

    Improving the mental health and wellbeing of all Australians, especially young people, would be a valuable way of ensuring the government doesn’t squander the time and space its been given by voters to do something truly valuable and reformative.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor has the chance to do something big in its second term. What policy reforms should it take on? – https://theconversation.com/labor-has-the-chance-to-do-something-big-in-its-second-term-what-policy-reforms-should-it-take-on-255849

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘I got sent something of people shooting themselves’ – research shows young people can’t avoid harmful content online

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dougal Sutherland, Clinical Psychologist, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington

    Leon Neal/Getty Images

    A new report from New Zealand’s Classification Office has revealed how young people are being exposed to harmful content online and what it is doing to their mental health.

    The Classification Office spoke with ten different groups of young people aged between 12 and 25 from a diverse range of backgrounds.

    They found that encountering extremely harmful – and sometime illegal – content is part of the online experience for young people. And they are often trying to deal with this without adequate support or guidance.

    Unintentional consumption

    The types of content young people talked about most involved graphic depictions of real-world violence – including executions, mass shootings, suicide and extreme cruelty towards animals.

    Seeing extremely harmful content was mostly – but not always – described as unintentional or unwanted. Participants described encountering this content in much the same way they engaged with other types of content.

    Participants talked about coming across this content in their social media feeds, in chat groups, or having content shared directly by others either online or in person. One male high school student said:

    You can just be in like a server that’s for, like, a game that you like, or a YouTuber or something, and someone can just send something that’s crazy.

    Another male high school student commented:

    Yeah, I got sent something of people shooting themselves.

    Even if young people did not actively look for this content, some engaged with it when it was shared or showed up unexpectedly in their social media feeds. Curiosity – or a desire to test their boundaries – lead to some young people looking at content even if they were aware this could be harmful or disturbing.

    One male from a community group said:

    I’ve seen gore […] Just out of curiosity, me and my friend […] well, someone actually posted it on their WhatsApp status. We asked the guy, “Where did you get this video from?” He said it was from a website, so we went there […] but there was some bad stuff. So […] we decided not to watch it again.

    Content depicting real-world graphic violence, injury or death was mentioned in every group the Classifications Office spoke to. Participants also talked about young people sharing sexual images or videos of themselves or others online.

    Many young people say they are coming across harmful content online unintentionally.
    Motortion Films/Shutterstock

    Lingering impacts

    Participants described a range of impacts young people may experience when exposed to extremely harmful content, or harmful content more broadly. This includes emotional or psychological impacts, ranging from short-term shock or disgust to a longer-term impact on their mental health and wellbeing.

    Young people also discussed the harmful impacts of content on individuals’ attitudes, beliefs, or behaviours. They used words such as “horrified”, “petrified” “traumatised” or “embarrassed”.

    Others talked about not being able to “unsee” content.

    In a written response, one high school student said:

    harm can be something that gets on your mind and doesn’t leave it and keeps coming back again and again at times that you don’t want that thought to come into your head.

    Seeking guidance

    For many parents, the immediate reaction to finding their teen has watched harmful content might be to take away a young person’s device or attempt to ban them from access to the internet.

    But young people involved in this research stressed the importance of being able to talk without fear of criticism or punishment. They felt that judgement or punitive actions – such as taking away devices – tend to hurt rather than help.

    Some reported that strong emotional reactions or assumptions can complicate the situation and lead them to avoid reaching out altogether.

    A former female Youth Advisory Panel member said:

    it’s recognising how unhelpful it is ‘cause it’s just like, “Well, if you weren’t on that damned phone, then you wouldn’t have seen this stuff.” So I imagine if someone was to find objectional content then they wouldn’t feel like they could go to their parents, and then what do you do then? So I guess trying to build that understanding and bridge for communication.

    Participants consistently emphasised the need for supportive and understanding responses when seeking help with difficult content or online experiences. They wanted adults to remain calm and allow them to fully share their experiences before reacting.

    What they are seeking is practical guidance that acknowledges their efforts and agency in managing challenging situations.

    One female high school student said:

    [If my parents are] worried about something that’s happened, we’ll sort it out first, and then we’ll talk about their worries afterwards. And so like, if there’s something gone wrong, I will talk to them first because I know that they’ll have my back and they’ll sort it out for me. And then, if there are some worries, we’ll talk about it after things are sorted out.

    There are several things parents can do to help young people cope with what they have seen online.

    Reassuring young people that it’s not their fault can reduce any feelings of guilt or shame. Helping them to process what they’ve seen by acknowledging the upsetting nature of it and allowing space to discuss it can help process any intense emotions that may arise.

    Finally, parents need to be encouraging young people to think critically about how viewing this material might affect them in the long term and any steps they can take to reduce their exposure to it. This will help young people build their own long-term solutions and competence in managing their online experiences.

    Dr Dougal Sutherland is principal psychologist at Umbrella Wellbeing.

    – ref. ‘I got sent something of people shooting themselves’ – research shows young people can’t avoid harmful content online – https://theconversation.com/i-got-sent-something-of-people-shooting-themselves-research-shows-young-people-cant-avoid-harmful-content-online-255773

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Late counting continues in several seats, with Goldstein and Melbourne among those too close to call

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    With 78% of enrolled voters counted, the ABC is calling 85 of the 150 House of Representatives seats for Labor, 39 for the Coalition, zero for the Greens and 10 for all Others, with 16 still undecided. The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 94 seats, the Coalition in 41, the Greens in one and all Others in 14.

    Undecided seats can be sorted into several categories. In some seats, the Australian Electoral Commission selected the incorrect final two candidates, and is slowly redoing this count with the correct two candidates. From the small number of votes that have been realigned, the ABC has estimates of what the two candidate vote will be when all current votes in that seat are realigned.

    This category applies to Greens leader Adam Bandt’s Melbourne, and he’s currently estimated to be trailing Labor’s Sarah Witty by an estimated 2,896 votes. The ABC says the sample of votes counted so far may be skewed against Bandt.

    Other seats in this category are Labor-held Fremantle, where a teal is estimated to be ahead by just 196 votes, Labor-held Bendigo (Nationals lead Labor by an estimated 1,285 votes) and Labor-held Bean (an independent leads Labor by an estimated 206 votes).

    This election was a disaster for the Coalition, yet they are likely to gain Bendigo, which Labor won by 61.2–38.8 at the 2022 election.

    Bradfield, Goldstein and Kooyong are teal independent vs Liberal contests. The Liberals have surged on postals in all three, and Liberal Tim Wilson will regain Goldstein if the remaining postals behave like current postals. The teals look better in Bradfield and Kooyong.

    Bullwinkel, Menzies and Longman are standard two-party contests. Labor should win Menzies, and is more likely than not to win the other two, once left-leaning absent votes start being counted.

    Calwell is currently undecided because both major parties’ primary votes slumped. It’s possible that an independent could win from third or fourth by getting ahead of the Liberals then using their preferences to beat Labor.

    In Monash and Flinders, the Liberals are beating Labor, but a teal independent is close behind Labor and may move ahead of Labor after preferences from the Greens and other minor candidates. The Liberals will probably defeat the teal if these are the final two.

    Ryan and Wills are Labor vs Greens contests. In Ryan, the contest is to finish second, then beat the Liberal National Party on the other left party’s preferences. The Greens are just ahead of Labor in Ryan at the moment. Wills is a standard two-candidate contest that Labor is currently winning comfortably.

    We won’t have a national two-party result for some time

    Current national primary votes are 34.8% Labor (up 2.2% since 2022), 32.1% Coalition (down 3.6%), 11.8% Greens (down 0.4%), 6.2% One Nation (up 1.3%), 1.9% Trumpet of Patriots (down 2.3% on United Australia Pary’s 2022 vote), 7.6% independents (up 2.3%) and 5.6% others (up 0.5%).

    The Coalition does best and the Greens do worst on early postals, which have been added since election night. Absent votes need to be posted back to their home electorate before they can be counted. On these votes, the Greens do best and the Coalition does the worst.

    As the major parties’ primary votes are low, there are many seats where Labor and Coalition candidates will not be the final two. There are currently 28 “non-classic” seats, where one of the major parties did not make the final two.

    The electoral commission’s first priority is to determine which candidate has won every seat. Once this is finished, they will conduct a second count in all non-classic seats between the Labor and Coalition candidates. When all such counts are completed, we will have a final official two-party result, but this won’t happen for at least a few weeks.

    The ABC’s current estimate for the two-party vote is a Labor win by 55.0–45.0, while The Poll Bludger estimates a Labor win by 54.1–45.9. The electoral commission’s current figure of 54.7–45.3 to Labor excludes all non-classic seats.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Late counting continues in several seats, with Goldstein and Melbourne among those too close to call – https://theconversation.com/late-counting-continues-in-several-seats-with-goldstein-and-melbourne-among-those-too-close-to-call-255868

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: View from The Hill: a budding Trump-Albanese bromance?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    It took an election win, but Anthony Albanese on Monday finally received that much-awaited phone call from US President Donald Trump.

    The conversation was “warm and positive,” the prime minister told a news conference, thanking the president for “reaching out”.

    “I won’t go into all of the personal comments that he made, but he was very generous in his personal warmth and praise towards myself. He was fully aware of the [election] outcome and he expressed the desire to continue to work with me in the future.”

    While they talked about tariffs (as well as AUKUS), the detailed engagement on that sensitive matter was left for later.

    Trump, as they say, loves a winner.

    When asked earlier in Washington about the Australian election, Trump said he was “very friendly” with Albanese.

    “I don’t know anything about the election other than the man that won, he’s very good, he’s a friend of mine,” the president said. Albanese had been “very, very nice to me, very respectful to me.

    “I have no idea who the other person is that ran against him.” There’s more than a touch of irony in this, given all the effort by the government and his other opponents to paint Peter Dutton as “Trump-lite”.

    The prime minister is likely to meet Trump soon, perhaps in June. Albanese has been invited to the G7 meeting in Canada. Trump may or may not be there but a meeting could be arranged around this.

    On the tariff front, the government is readying to defend the local film industry, after Trump announced a 100% tariff on all movies going into the United States.

    Arts Minister Tony Burke said: “Nobody should be under any doubt that we will be standing up unequivocally for the rights of the Australian screen industry.”

    Indonesia to be Albanese’s first foreign visit of new term

    Albanese announced his first overseas visit would be to Indonesia. This will be a particularly important visit, given the significance of the bilateral relationship and the recent Russian request (which Indonesia rejected) to base planes in Papua.

    Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto congratulated Albanese on his win in a call on Sunday.

    In the call, Albanese asked the president to host his first overseas visit, and the president said it would be “a great honour” to do so.

    Meanwhile, in the next few days Labor’s factions will be jostling over the spoils of victory. The factions work out broadly the membership of the frontbench, but Albanese, given he has massive authority with the huge win, will be able to impose his will in this process where he wants to do so. The prime minister allocates the portfolios.

    Although there will be changes, Labor sources are expecting substantial continuity between the old and new ministries, especially at the higher level.

    Albanese has previously confirmed top cabinet members, notably Treasurer Jim Chalmers, Foreign Minister Penny Wong, Defence Minister Marles, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher and Trade Minister Don Farrell, will remain in their present ministries.

    Most interest is in whether Environment Minister Tanya Plibersek is moved. Albanese would not say, when asked during the campaign, whether she would remain in environment although he confirmed she would stay in cabinet. Albanese and Plibersek have had a poor relationship over decades. She had expected to become education minister after the last election and was shocked to be given the environment portfolio/

    Albanese told his news conference “I want Labor to be the natural party of government”.

    Knife out for Angus Taylor

    What goes around comes around. Outgoing NSW Liberal senator Hollie Hughes, who blamed shadow treasurer
    Angus Taylor for her loss of preselection because he endorsed the candidate who beat her, has unleashed on Taylor’s leadership aspirations.

    Hughes told the ABC on Monday she would not support Taylor to be the next leader.

    She said the opposition’s economic narrative “was just completely non-existent. I’m not quite sure what [Taylor has] been doing for three years.

    “There was no tax plan, I think the economic team has significantly let down the parliamentary team, it’s let down our membership, it’s let down our supporters and it’s let down people in Australia broadly – the fact they had nothing to sell, nothing to say, and clearly had not done the work that was required.”

    She said deputy leader Sussan Ley had done “a fantastic job over the past three years and I’m hopeful that she will definitely still be part of our leadership.”

    Four names are in the mix for the successor to Peter Dutton, who lost his seat of Dickson in Saturday’s rout. They are Taylor, Ley, immigration spokesman Dan Tehan and defence spokesman Andrew Hastie. None has yet declared their candidature.

    Hastie told The West Australian at the weekend, “I certainly want to be able to drive change within the party itself and what that looks like will be up to my colleagues to determine”.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. View from The Hill: a budding Trump-Albanese bromance? – https://theconversation.com/view-from-the-hill-a-budding-trump-albanese-bromance-255619

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Is it dangerous to kiss someone who’s eaten gluten if you have coeliac disease?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vincent Ho, Associate Professor and Clinical Academic Gastroenterologist, Western Sydney University

    Lordn/Shutterstock

    Coeliac disease is not a food allergy or intolerance. It’s an autoimmune disease that makes the body attack the small intestine if gluten (a protein found in wheat, rye and barley) reaches the gut. Even a small amount – a tiny bread crumb – can cause damage and inflammation.

    The only treatment is a gluten-free diet. This means completely eliminating foods containing the protein, such as pasta, bread, noodles and many processed products, and preparing food carefully to avoid cross-contamination.

    But what about other forms of cross-contamination? One study surveyed 538 adults with coeliac disease about their dating habits and found 39% were hesitant to kiss their partners because of the disease.

    But can gluten really be transferred this way, with a kiss? Research is only just beginning to look at this question – here’s what we know.

    How harmful is gluten for people with coeliac disease?

    Coeliac disease is common: surveys representative of the population estimate it affects one in 70 Australians. However, it tends to be under-diagnosed. Research suggests only 20% of those with coeliac disease have a medical diagnosis.

    This means most sufferers are unaware they have coeliac disease, despite experiencing unpleasant symptoms.

    When untreated, coeliac disease can stop the small intestine absorbing nutrients and lead to gut symptoms such as diarrhoea, abdominal pain, bloating and flatulence. It can also result in non-gut symptoms such as fatigue, skin rashes and brain fog.

    However, touching gluten won’t have any effect. Gluten only causes damage to people with coeliac disease if it enters the gut. This is why it can be effectively treated with a strict gluten-free diet.

    How much gluten is harmful?

    Researchers have investigated how much gluten can result in harm to people with coeliac disease. One study found some people with coeliac disease experienced damage to their small intestine with as little as 10 milligrams of gluten per day.

    For context, one slice of bread contains 2.5 grams of gluten. A very small amount can cause damage if eaten, such a tiny crumb accidentally transferred from a chopping board or plate.

    Australian researchers have determined that a dose of gluten below 3mg does not cause an immune response on very sensitive blood tests.

    Even a bread crumb can be harmful to people with coeliac disease, if it’s eaten.
    Master1305/Shutterstock

    Food regulatory authorities look at how much gluten is concentrated in particular foods to decide what is “gluten free”. In most countries a diet containing gluten at less than 20 parts per million (or 20mg per kilogram) is considered to be safe for people with coeliac disease.

    But Australia and New Zealand have much stricter requirements for labelling a food as “gluten free”. Testing methods in Australia allow for detection as low as three parts per million – this is known as the “limit of detection”. Foods below this limit contain no detectable gluten and can be labelled gluten free.

    So, what about kissing?

    What does this mean for kissing? Can enough gluten be transmitted from one person to another via saliva to cause problems? To date, there is very limited data.

    New US research presented today looked at ten couples, each with one partner who had coeliac disease.

    In the study, the non-coeliac partner ate ten crackers containing gluten before the couple kissed for ten seconds.

    The researchers found gluten transfer was minimal in the saliva. When the non-coeliac partner had a glass of water after eating the crackers, the gluten in their saliva was less than 20 parts per million (the international limit for gluten-free products).

    While this data has not yet been peer-reviewed, their preliminary finding seems to support similar research from 2022 which looked at peanut allergy and saliva to estimate gluten levels in saliva.

    It estimated that saliva after eating gluten could contain around 250 micrograms of gluten – one-twelfth of the minimum amount (3mg) believed to cause an immune response.

    This means, for people with coeliac disease, kissing should not be an issue to worry about.

    Cross-contamination from foods containing gluten is the biggest risk for people with coeliac disease.
    Jacob Lund/Shutterstock

    Other risks

    The bigger risk for people with coeliac disease continues to be exposure to gluten from food – even food labelled “gluten free”.

    One study found seven out of 256 manufactured food products sold as gluten free had detectable levels of gluten, in some cases as much as 3mg in a single serving.

    In 2018 another study found almost 10% of food sold as gluten free at cafes and restaurants across Melbourne actually contained gluten. One food sample contained a gluten concentration of more than 80 parts per million.

    Still, given Australia has strictest regulations in the world, the risk of getting sick from eating gluten-free foods is quite low.

    The risk from kissing? Even lower.

    If you want to look out for your loved one with coeliac disease, how you prepare food is more important. This includes preventing cross-contamination by storing and preparing gluten-free foods well away from foods containing gluten, and thoroughly cleaning equipment and utensils after they’ve been in contact with food containing gluten.

    And next time you’re on a date at your favourite eatery – whether they advertise as gluten free, or just have gluten-free items on the menu – it’s a good idea to politely ask about their food handling practices.

    Vincent Ho does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Is it dangerous to kiss someone who’s eaten gluten if you have coeliac disease? – https://theconversation.com/is-it-dangerous-to-kiss-someone-whos-eaten-gluten-if-you-have-coeliac-disease-255721

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Pie in the sky? After the Coalition’s stinging loss, nuclear should be dead. Here’s why it might live on

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adam Simpson, Senior Lecturer, International Studies, University of South Australia

    barmalini/Shutterstock

    When the Coalition launched its nuclear plan last year, Labor was on the nose and early polls showed some support for the policy. But then the wheels fell off.

    Nuclear didn’t stack up on cost or timeframe. Early support fell away. By the time of the election, support for maintaining Australia’s ban on nuclear power had increased from 51% to 59%.

    When Opposition leader Peter Dutton gave his budget reply speech in late March, he barely mentioned the nuclear policy – instead promoting gas and attacking renewables.

    After Saturday’s Coalition rout, the prospect of nuclear power in Australia should be dead and buried. But that’s not guaranteed. The National Party strongly backs nuclear power.

    With metropolitan Liberals sceptical of nuclear reduced to a rump, the Nationals and regional Liberals will gain influence within the Coalition. If conservative Nationals prevail, we may well see the nuclear policy survive the election post-mortem and be resurrected for the next election.

    Why did the Coalition back nuclear?

    In the 1990s, the Coalition introduced laws banning nuclear power in Australia. But interest in the technology has never gone away. Australia has abundant uranium, and nuclear power appeals to some demographics.

    Politically, Dutton’s choice to back nuclear power was pragmatic. There were real tensions inside the Coalition on climate action. Nuclear power seemed to offer a way past these tensions, as a zero emissions energy source providing baseload power. It would also have meant slowing the renewable rollout and building more gas power plants to cover the gap left by retiring coal.

    It appears the nuclear policy wasn’t a Dutton priority. Nationals leader David Littleproud says he and the Nationals pushed the Coalition to adopt nuclear in exchange for continued support for the 2050 net zero target. After Saturday’s wipeout in Liberal-held metropolitan seats, the Nationals will have a stronger hand.

    On Sky News yesterday, Littleproud claimed nuclear was not the reason for the Coalition’s loss. National MPs are still backing nuclear.

    If the Nationals stick to their guns, we may see the Coalition bring nuclear to the next election.

    Three-year federal terms make it difficult for new governments to embark on long term plans. Nuclear energy would take at least 15 years to come online. The Coalition’s last realistic opportunity to go nuclear would have been back in 2007, when there was renewed interest in the technology.

    At that time, renewables were quite expensive. But solar, wind and batteries now cost much less, while nuclear was already expensive and has remained so.

    Government tenders for renewable and storage projects tend to be massively oversubscribed, with far more interest than opportunities. By contrast, nuclear doesn’t have business backing. The Australian Industry Group has argued the Coalition’s nuclear policy was 20 years too late. This business reticence explains the Coalition’s proposal to build the nuclear reactors with public money.

    This year, clean energy levels in Australia’s main grid will reach 44–46%, according to the Clean Energy Regulator. With a strong pipeline of new projects, that could reach 60% by the next election. It’s hard to see what role nuclear could have in any future grid.

    Nuclear isn’t quite dead

    In contrast to intermittent renewables, nuclear offers reliable zero emissions baseload power. If you talk to nuclear backers, you’ll likely hear a variant of this sentence.

    But there’s “no going back” to the old baseload model where large, inflexible coal plants churned out power, as the head of the Australian Energy Market Operator Daniel Westerman pointed out last week. That’s because renewables are the cheapest energy source. Powering Australia on 100% renewables is possible with enough battery storage or pumped hydro to compensate for the solar duck curve, in which solar power drops off in the evening.

    So why does nuclear have a hold on the Coalition’s imagination, even as it faces its largest crisis since Menzies founded the Liberal Party?

    One likely reason is cultural opposition to renewables. This is especially evident among prominent Nationals such as Littleproud, Matt Canavan and Barnaby Joyce. As the thinking presumably goes, if “latte-sipping greens” in inner city areas back renewables, genuine country Australians should naturally oppose them.

    It is, of course, not that simple. Renewables are often just as popular in the bush as in the cities. A Lowy Institute poll found almost two-thirds of regional respondents supported the government’s 82% renewable target for 2030. Farmers hosting solar panels or wind turbines energy generation on their properties see them as guaranteed income even if livestock or grains are having a bad year.

    The problem for the Nationals and for the Coalition more broadly is that nuclear just isn’t that popular. Early support for the policy was soft. It melted away as authoritative sources such as the CSIRO pointed to the exorbitant cost and long timeframe to build reactors from scratch.

    Labor, with a resounding majority, is likely to accelerate the shift to clean energy. While the urban-rural political divide will still play out in Coalition opposition to clean energy, Labor’s large electoral mandate and dominance in the populous cities will encourage it to press ahead.

    As the surviving members of the Coalition lick their wounds and begin to figure out how they did so badly, we can expect to see nuclear up for discussion. But given the new power of the Nationals and regional Liberals in the party room, we may not have seen the last of nuclear fantasies in Australia.

    Adam Simpson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Pie in the sky? After the Coalition’s stinging loss, nuclear should be dead. Here’s why it might live on – https://theconversation.com/pie-in-the-sky-after-the-coalitions-stinging-loss-nuclear-should-be-dead-heres-why-it-might-live-on-255866

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: 5 huge climate opportunities await the next parliament – and it has the numbers to deliver

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Skarbek, Climateworks CEO, Monash University

    Australians have returned an expanded Labor Party to government alongside a suite of climate-progressive independents. Meanwhile, the Coalition – which promoted nuclear energy and a slower renewables transition – suffered a historic defeat.

    Labor also looks set to have increased numbers in the Senate, where the Greens are likely to hold the balance of power.

    These numbers mean support for progressive climate and energy policy in Australia’s 48th parliament is shaping as stronger than the last. So what does this mean as Australia seeks to position itself as a leader in the global net zero economy?

    In its first term in government, Labor laid the groundwork for stronger climate action, including legislating an emissions-reduction target and putting crucial policies and organisations in place. The next parliament will be well-placed to build on these foundations. Here, we explain where key opportunities lie.

    1. National emissions target for 2035

    By September this year, all signatories to the global Paris Agreement must set emissions reduction targets out to 2035.

    Labor is waiting on advice from the Climate Change Authority before setting its target. The authority’s initial advice last year suggested a target between 65% and 75%, based on 2005 levels.

    Some countries have already set their targets. The United Kingdom, for example, will aim for a reduction of at least 81% by 2035, based on 1990 levels.

    2. A firm plan for net-zero

    Australia has committed to reaching net-zero emissions by 2050. Getting there will require innovation and investment across the economy. In the last term of government, Labor began
    developing net-zero plans for each economic sector. They comprise energy, transport, industry, resources, the built environment, and agriculture and land.

    The plans are due to be finalised this year. They will act as a tangible map for Australia to meet both net zero and the 2035 emissions-reduction target, and are keenly awaited by state governments, industry and investors.

    This policy area presents the broadest opportunity for the crossbench to exert influence for greater ambition, scale and pace. Neither the 2035 target nor the sector plans need to go through parliament – however they could feature in broader parliamentary negotiations.

    Separately, the Safeguard Mechanism will be reviewed in 2027, during this parliament. The policy aims to reduce emissions reductions from Australia’s biggest greenhouse-gas polluters. It is key to reaching net zero in Australia’s industrial sector, and an important moment to ensure the policy reduces emissions at the rate needed.

    3. Bidding to host COP31

    Australia is bidding to host next year’s United Nations global climate talks, or COP, in partnership with Pacific Island nations. The bid was opposed by the Coalition.

    A decision on the COP host is expected in June. If Australia succeeds, the federal government will seek to use the high-profile global gathering to showcase its climate credentials – and there will be high expectations from Pacific co-hosts. So all policy between now and then really matters.

    4. An energy system to make Australia thrive

    Energy produces about 70% of Australia’s emissions. Tackling this means reducing emissions from electricity through renewable generation. Elsewhere in the economy, it means switching from gas, petrol and diesel to clean electricity.

    The government’s plan to reach 82% renewable energy by 2030 remains crucial. Australia’s electricity system is expected to reach around 50% renewable energy this year. But there is more work to do.

    A review of the National Electricity Market is due this year. It is expected to recommend ways to promote greater investment in renewable generation and storage. This includes what policy might follow the Capacity Investment Scheme, a measure to boost renewables investment which will be rolled out by 2027.

    Faster action on the renewable shift can also be achieved through the Australian Energy Market Operator’s next Integrated System Plan – the nation’s roadmap for guiding energy infrastructure and investment.

    Labor also has scope to improve energy efficiency, and better match energy demand and supply – especially at times of peak energy use. The government’s commitments to subsidise home batteries, and expand the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, will help achieve this. The crossbench, including the Greens, is likely to seek greater investments to reduce household energy use and costs.

    Beyond this, Australia’s electricity grid needs to be double the size of what’s currently planned, to power the entire economy with clean energy.

    5. Leverage clean energy export advantages

    Australia generates about a quarter of its GDP from exports – many of them emissions-intensive such as fossil fuels, minerals and agricultural products.

    In his election victory speech, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese urged Australia to seize the moment at a time of global economic disruption. Key to this will be building on the Future Made in Australia agenda and ensuring Australia makes the most of its competitive advantages as the world transitions to net-zero.

    This will include:

    • leveraging a strong reputation as a reliable trade partner
    • capitalising on our world-leading solar and wind energy resources to produce low-emissions goods for export
    • developing the industry around critical minerals and rare earths needed in low-emissions technologies
    • helping metals and minerals sectors achieve net-zero emissions pathways.

    This will be central to trade negotiations in the years to come. Realising Australia’s green exports aspiration requires action abroad as well as at home.

    A game-changing decade

    This decade is crucial to Australia’s future economy, and to the success of Australia’s long-term transition to net zero emissions. Our work has shown Australia can slash emissions while the economy grows.

    The question now is how quickly the re-elected government – indeed, the next parliament – can realise Australia’s ambition as a renewable energy superpower.

    The next three years will provide vital opportunities and they must be seized – for the sake of our energy bills, our economic prosperity and Australia’s reputation on the world stage.

    Anna Skarbek is on the board of the Net Zero Economy Authority, SEC Victoria, the Centre for New Energy Technologies, the Green Building Council of Australia, and the Asia-Pacific Advisory Board of the Glasgow Financial Alliance on Net Zero. She is CEO of Climateworks Centre which receives funding from philanthropy and project-specific financial support from a range of private and public entities including federal, state and local government and private sector organisations and international and local non-profit organisations. Climateworks Centre works within Monash University’s Sustainable Development Institute.

    Climateworks Centre is a part of Monash University. It receives funding from a range of external sources including philanthropy, governments and businesses. Businesses such as mining companies and industry associations have previously co-funded Climateworks’ research on industrial decarbonisation, and may benefit from policies mentioned in this article.

    – ref. 5 huge climate opportunities await the next parliament – and it has the numbers to deliver – https://theconversation.com/5-huge-climate-opportunities-await-the-next-parliament-and-it-has-the-numbers-to-deliver-255772

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: After its landslide win, Labor should have courage and confidence on security – and our alliance with the US

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Wallis, Professor of International Security, University of Adelaide

    The re-election of the Albanese Labor government by such a wide margin should not mean “business as usual” for Australia’s security policy.

    The global uncertainty instigated by US President Donald Trump means Australia’s security landscape is very different today from when Labor was first elected in 2022, or even when its Defence Strategic Review was released in 2023.

    As we argue in our recent book, the Albanese government faces increasingly difficult questions.

    How can we maintain our crucial security alliance with the US while deepening partnerships with other countries that have reservations about US policy?

    And, given Trump’s recent actions, how much can we continue to rely on the United States and what are the potential costs of the alliance?

    With a massive parliamentary majority, the new government has an opportunity for bold thinking on national security. This is not the time for Australia to keep its head down – we need to face the rapidly changing world with our heads held high.



    Read more:
    Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton

    Trump 2.0 is not the same as 1.0

    We do not advocate Australia step away from the US alliance. We are also realistic that decades of defence procurement mean Australia is heavily reliant on US defence materiel (and its subsequent sustainment) for our security.

    The deep interoperability between the Australian Defence Force and the US military is something alliance sceptics too readily gloss over: much Australian military capability cannot function without ongoing American support.

    At the same time, many alliance advocates underestimate the impact of the new challenges we face. Some assumed a continuity between the first and second Trump administrations. However, we are not convinced the lessons learned from Trump 1.0 are still valid.

    A key difference between Trump 1.0 and 2.0 is the effect of his move away from respecting international law.

    For example, the US has voted with Russia against UN Security Council resolutions condemning the Ukraine war, withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization, and damaged relations with NATO allies, among many other actions.

    As a middle power, Australia has long relied on the “rules-based order” to advance its foreign and strategic policy interests.

    Even if “normal transmission” resumes under a new US president in 2029, we are concerned the Trump administration’s structural changes to the international order will not easily be wound back. American soft power has been decimated by cuts to the US State Department, USAID and international broadcasting services. This will also not be rebuilt quickly.

    A second difference is there are few “adults left in the room” in the Trump administration.

    The advisers who kept Trump in check during his first administration have been replaced by loyalists less likely to push back against his ideas and impulses. This includes his long-held grievance that allies have been exploiting the US.

    The Albanese government needs to think more deeply about how to hedge against dependence on the US. This means investing in relations with other partners, especially in Asia and the Pacific, and working with them to promote the laws, rules and norms that maintain stability and predictability in global affairs.

    An idealistic vision for the future

    We are also concerned that many in the national security community base their policy recommendations on the assumption that war between the US and China is inevitable, and such a conflict could draw in Australia as America’s ally.

    Rather, the Trump administration’s preference for “deals” opens the possibility the US and China might come to an arrangement that will affect US presence and leadership in our region.

    Australia may not be prepared for this. The new government must engage in more open discussion about how we would maintain our security if the US does pull back from the region or makes decisions Australians don’t support.

    As a start, we need to consider how Australia can better pursue self-reliance within the alliance structure. We need a range of strategic options in the future that don’t rely on an outdated image of the US as a reliable partner.

    This debate should be guided by what we call “pragmatic idealism”.

    Rather than accepting the way things are, the government and members of the national security community need to re-imagine how things can be.

    We argue the Albanese government should draw confidence from its thumping electoral win to articulate a politics of hope, opportunity and possibility for our future security. This needs to drown out the cynicism, passive acceptance and learned helplessness that often characterises Australian national security debates.

    We are conscious that being “idealistic” is often dismissed as impractical, naïve “wishful thinking”. But the new government needs to demonstrate to Australians it has the courage to face the diverse, interlinked and complex security challenges we face – potentially on our own. These extend to issues such as cyber attacks, transnational crime and climate change.

    Practical steps

    As a first step, the Albanese government urgently needs to commission an integrated National Security Strategy that considers all the tools of statecraft Australia can use to respond to these challenges.

    This means engaging more with partners in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. In particular, Australia should consider investing more heavily in information programs and public diplomacy as the US withdraws from this arena.

    The government must also engage better with the public and be more transparent about its security options and decisions.

    On AUKUS, for instance, the government must build its “social licence” from the public to sustain such a massive deal across generations. Australians need to be better informed about – and consulted on – the decisions they will ultimately pay for.

    This also includes being upfront with Australians about the need for greater defence spending in a tumultuous world.

    It is understandably tempting for the new Albanese government to continue a “small target” approach when it comes to the US. This has meant minimising domestic debate about the alliance that could undermine support for AUKUS and avoid risking the ire of a thin-skinned Trump.

    But the government needs the courage to ask difficult questions and imagine different futures.

    Joanne Wallis receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Department of Defence, and the government of South Australia. She is a Senior Nonresident Fellow of the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

    Rebecca Strating receives funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    – ref. After its landslide win, Labor should have courage and confidence on security – and our alliance with the US – https://theconversation.com/after-its-landslide-win-labor-should-have-courage-and-confidence-on-security-and-our-alliance-with-the-us-255598

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A rubbish election: voting in Australia produces mountains of waste – but there’s a better way

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Given, Professor of Information Sciences & Director, Social Change Enabling Impact Platform, RMIT University

    More than 18 million Australians voted on Saturday, after walking past countless corflutes, reading campaign flyers and reviewing how-to-vote cards.

    The 2025 federal election was Australia’s biggest yet, with 710,000 more people on the electoral roll than in 2022. The Australian Election Commission amassed 250,000 pencils, 240,000 vests, 80,000 ballot boxes and 5,000 rolls of tamper-proof tape to stock some 7,000 polling places.

    So, what happens to these materials after polling day? Some are warehoused, ready for reuse next time around. Others are repurposed. But every election also generates a mountain of waste for landfill.

    It doesn’t have to be this way. Australia needs to mandate a cradle-to-grave approach to creating, using, recycling and disposing of election materials. Meanwhile, electronic machines and online voting can reduce the need for paper ballots, just as social media campaigns can reduce paper mail drops.

    Magill School in the Sturt electorate, like most polling centres, was wrapped in lightweight plastic posters.
    Clare Peddie

    Where do election materials go after the polls close?

    In response to inquiries from The Conversation, the Australian Election Commission said most AEC materials, such as tamper-proof tape, vests and pencils, are stored between elections at counting centres. Other materials, such as cardboard voting booths, are recycled or donated to schools or charities.

    Most councils require corflutes to be collected within seven days of an election. But no rules govern reuse or disposal. Corflutes are made from polypropylene, a lightweight plastic that is technically recyclable. But it’s not a straightforward process, so most recycling facilities reportedly cannot accept this waste.

    Some candidates donate corflutes to schools, childcare centres and charities, because the white reverse side can be used to mount artworks.

    Second-hand corflutes have also been used as shelters for homeless people, heat shields for bee hives, or to repair damaged skylights. But no doubt many end up in landfill.

    Are there alternatives?

    Many countries are “greening” their elections. In 2019, India’s election commission directed parties to eliminate single-use plastic including corflutes. In 2024, the United Kingdom’s Westminster Foundation for Democracy outlined strategies for reducing election “pollution”, addressing supply chains and packaging.

    Australia relies heavily on disposable election materials. While many of these can be recycled, it’s better to avoid single-use materials.

    Parties could also display how-to-vote instructions on posters at election sites, rather than handing out individual flyers that are recycled or thrown away.

    In 2022, the AEC introduced plain brown cardboard screens and ballot boxes, saying they are easier to recycle and reuse than previous versions “wrapped” in purple-and-white branded paper. However, Australian Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers says elections will probably always be “highly manual and resource-intensive exercises”. We disagree.

    Could Australia use electronic or online voting to reduce waste?

    Other countries are introducing online voting to reduce waste. One study in Estonia found the carbon footprint of paper-based voting was 180 times greater than internet-based voting. More than 50% of the population voted online in 2023.

    India introduced electronic voting machines in 1982 and mandated them, nationwide, in 2004. In 1999 alone this saved 7,700 tonnes of waste.

    The United States introduced mechanical voting machines in the 1890s, punch cards and scanned ballots in the 1960s, and “direct-recording” electronic voting machines in the 1970s. Today, touch screens are used in many voting booths, with paper records for auditing. Now just 7% of districts rely on paper ballots and hand-counted ballots are rarely used.

    Yet electronic voting machines are not without controversy. Security concerns after the 2016 US election resulted in 94% of districts shifting to optical scanning, and use of “direct-recording” electronic voting machines almost halved.

    Ireland invested €50 million (A$88 million) into electronic voting machines in 2002, but they were never used due to concerns about potential tampering.

    Australia should explore secure options for electronic voting machines and online voting. In its response to The Conversation, the AEC said this would be a matter for parliament to consider, because the law currently demands that elections are in-person events.

    Can social media campaigning help?

    Social media enables candidates and voters to engage in new ways. For instance, Labor senators Katy Gallagher and Penny Wong took part in a Facebook “pop quiz” on April 29, which had 55,000 views. But social media can amplify misinformation, so consumers need to fact-check what they see and hear online.

    Combined, the parties and affiliated groups spent more than A$39 million on advertisements on YouTube, Facebook and Google during the 2025 campaign. The AEC had to update its authorisation guidelines to cover podcasters and other content creators.

    This mirrors global shifts towards social media campaigning. During Canada’s 2025 campaign, Liberal leader Mark Carney (who went on to be elected prime minister) created a video with celebrity Mike Myers, reaching 10 million views.

    While such creative approaches may engage voters, they still carry a carbon footprint. Carney and Myers’ video likely produced about six tonnes of CO₂ emissions due to the energy and electricity used in production, streaming and viewing.

    Mike Myers and Mark Carney used social media creatively in Canada’s 2025 election campaign.

    Text messages also connect candidates with voters. Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots party sent 17 million texts the election campaign. This equates to 240kg of CO₂ emissions from energy-hungry data centres and personal devices.

    This is less than the emissions the average Australian produces in a week. However, the unsolicited texts riled many voters, many concerned about privacy and who wanted to opt out.

    What’s the solution?

    Australia should mandate a reduction in the disposal of election materials.

    Some print materials may always be needed, because not all voters can access digital content or vote online. But the current situation is unsustainable.

    Global experiences show innovation is possible. Australia can reduce its reliance on new, physical materials, while maintaining public trust.

    Australia’s newly elected officials have an opportunity to green future elections, adopting a more sophisticated approach to voting in a digital age. There’s no excuse for producing mountains of plastic and paper waste every three or four years. Our nation deserves better.

    Lisa M. Given receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Fellow of the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia and the Association for Information Science and Technology.

    Gary Rosengarten receives funding from the Australian Research Council, Australian Renewable Energy Agency and the Renewable Affordable Clean Energy for 2030 CRC, and is a non-executive board member of the Australian Alliance for Energy Productivity.

    Matt Duckham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A rubbish election: voting in Australia produces mountains of waste – but there’s a better way – https://theconversation.com/a-rubbish-election-voting-in-australia-produces-mountains-of-waste-but-theres-a-better-way-255780

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tailoring and the Black dandy: how 250 years of Black fashion history inspired the 2025 Met Gala

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Toby Slade, Associate Professor of Fashion, University of Technology Sydney

    Portrait of a Man, c. 1855 National Gallery of Art

    Fashion is one of the most powerful tools we have for understanding ourselves and the world around us. Nowhere is this clearer than in the story of Black American tailoring and the legacy of the Black dandy.

    Inspired by scholar Monica L. Miller’s groundbreaking book Slaves to Fashion: Black Dandyism and the Styling of Black Diasporic Identity, the theme of The Metropolitan Museum of Art’s Costume Institute spring 2025 show is Superfine: Tailoring Black Style.

    The exhibition charts the evolution of the Black dandy from the 18th century to today. The story it tells is about more than suits. It’s about power, pride, resistance and joy.

    Each year, the Met Gala takes its dress code from the institue’s spring exhibition. This year’s is “Tailored for You”. So who is the Black dandy, why are they so important to fashion today, and what can we expect to see on the red carpet?

    The birth of the Black Dandy

    “Black dandy” is a modern term. Figures like American abolitionist Frederick Douglass (1818–95) or Haitian revolutionary leader Toussaint Louverture (1743–1803) would not have called themselves dandies, but they used style with similar effect: as a tool of resistance, self-fashioning and cultural pride.

    Toussaint Louverture was a leader during the widespread uprisings of enslaved people in Saint-Domingue (now Haiti) in 1791. This image was drawn in 1802.
    The Metropolitan Museum of Art

    French poet Charles Baudelaire (1821–67) first wrote about dandies in 1863, describing them as individuals who elevate style to a form of personal and aesthetic resistance.

    Baudelaire’s dandy was not just stylish but symbolic. He was an emblem of modernity itself: a time marked by fluid identities, liminal spaces and the collapse of clear boundaries between gender, authenticity and social order.

    Dandyism among Black men took root in the 18th and 19th centuries in both the United States and the Caribbean. Tailoring became a way to reclaim dignity under enslavement and colonialism.

    Dandies take the clothing of an oppressor – aristocratic, colonial, segregationist or otherwise – and turn it into a weapon of elegance. Through meticulous style and refinement, dandies make a silent yet striking claim to moral superiority.

    Frederick Douglass was born into slavery, and freed in 1838. This photograph shows him in 1855.
    The Metropolitan Museum of Art

    Douglass famously appeared in immaculate Victorian suits when campaigning for abolition, consciously dressing in the same style as those who denied his freedom.

    Louverture used perfectly tailored French military uniforms during the Haitian Revolution against French colonial rule.

    In the 1920s, Harlem dandies wore fine tailoring and flamboyant colours, rejecting the idea that poverty or discrimination should dictate presentation.

    In perfectly tied cravats, polished shoes and sharply tailored coats, Black dandies refashion power on their own terms.

    Presence through style

    Dandies also challenge the narrow rules of masculinity.

    Conventional menswear often demands restraint, toughness and invisibility. Dandies dare to embrace beauty, self-adornment and performance. This masculinity can be expressive, creative and even flamboyant.

    The luxurious silk suits and carefully groomed appearance of American Jazz pioneer Duke Ellington (1899–1974) projected glamour rather than austerity.

    The elegantly tailored overcoats and scarves of American poet Langston Hughes (1901–67) suggested a masculinity deeply entwined with creativity and softness.

    Figures in Harlem’s ballrooms and jazz clubs blurred gender boundaries decades before mainstream conversations about gender fluidity emerged.

    A street scene in Harlem, New York City, photographed in 1943.
    Library of Congress

    A tradition of Black tailoring

    In a world where Black self-presentation has long been scrutinised and politicised, tailored clothing asserted visibility, authority and artistry. Dandies transformed fashion into a political declaration of dignity, resistance and creative power.

    Black American tailoring practices blossomed most visibly in the zoot suits of the Harlem Renaissance, though they also had strong roots in New Orleans, Chicago and the Caribbean.

    As seen in the Sunday Best of the Civil Rights era, Black tailoring walked the line between resistance and celebration: beautiful but with clear political intent.

    In the 1970s, the Black dandy became more flamboyant, wearing tight, colourful clothes with bold accessories. He transformed traditional suits with exaggerated shapes, bright patterns and plaids inspired by African heritage.

    Artists popular with a white audience like Sammy Davis Jr (1925–90), Miles Davis (1926–91) and James Brown (1933–2006) embraced the aesthetic, contributing to its widespread acceptance.

    Sammy Davis Jr with his first European gold record, 1976.
    Nationaal Archief, CC BY

    Meanwhile, a super stylish contingent of Black men in the Congo, La Sapeur, refined their look so spectacularly they would become the benchmark of the Black dandy for generations to come.

    The 1990s saw a new era of Black dandyism emerge through luxury sportswear and hip-hop aesthetics.

    Designer Dapper Dan (1944–) revolutionised fashion by remixing luxury logos into bold, custom streetwear, creating a distinctive Black aesthetic that bridged hip-hop culture and high fashion.

    Musician Andre 3000 (1975–) redefined menswear by blending Southern Black style with bold colour, vintage tailoring and theatrical flair.

    Today, the tradition thrives in the style of influencer Wisdom Kaye, the elegance of LeBron James, and the risk-taking of Lewis Hamilton.

    Dressing for the red carpet

    Tailored for You invites guests to interpret the dandy’s legacy in personal, bold and boundary-pushing ways.

    Whether conforming to tradition, subverting expectations or creating something entirely new, this theme is a celebration of the freedom to dress – and be – on your own terms.

    The Black dandy is a figure of defiance and desire, of ambiguity and brilliance, of resistance and beauty. Dandyism blurs boundaries between masculinity and femininity, artifice and authenticity, conformity and rebellion. It unsettles fixed identities and reflects broader tensions within modern life.

    The poet and activist Countee Cullen, as depicted by Winold Reiss around 1925.
    National Portrait Gallery

    Black dandies have shocked, amused, offended, delighted and inspired society since their inception. In the sharp defiance of Douglass’ Victorian suits, the flamboyant spectacle of Harlem ballrooms, and the logo-laced rebellion of Dapper Dan’s streetwear, the Black dandy has continually forced the world to reckon with the politics of presence, pride and performance.

    Despite being overlooked by mainstream fashion history, they’ve shaped the way we see elegance, masculinity and self-expression. This Met Gala and the accompanying exhibition are not just a celebration – they are a long-overdue recognition.

    Dijanna Mulhearn receives funding from Australian Government Research Training Stipend.

    Toby Slade does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tailoring and the Black dandy: how 250 years of Black fashion history inspired the 2025 Met Gala – https://theconversation.com/tailoring-and-the-black-dandy-how-250-years-of-black-fashion-history-inspired-the-2025-met-gala-250650

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia can no longer take a ‘business as usual’ approach to the US. On security, it’s time for courage and confidence

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanne Wallis, Professor of International Security, University of Adelaide

    The re-election of the Albanese Labor government by such a wide margin should not mean “business as usual” for Australia’s security policy.

    The global uncertainty instigated by US President Donald Trump means Australia’s security landscape is very different today from when Labor was first elected in 2022, or even when its Defence Strategic Review was released in 2023.

    As we argue in our recent book, the Albanese government faces increasingly difficult questions.

    How can we maintain our critical security alliance with the US while deepening partnerships with other countries that have reservations about US policy?

    And, given Trump’s recent actions, how much can we continue to rely on the United States and what are the potential costs of the alliance?

    With a massive parliamentary majority, the new government has an opportunity for bold thinking on national security. This is not the time for Australia to keep its head down – we need to face the rapidly changing world with our heads held high.



    Read more:
    Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton

    Trump 2.0 is not the same as 1.0

    We do not advocate Australia step away from the US alliance. We are also realistic that decades of defence procurement mean Australia is heavily reliant on US defence materiel (and its subsequent sustainment) for our security.

    The deep interoperability between the Australian Defence Force and the US military is something alliance sceptics too readily gloss over: much Australian military capability cannot function without ongoing American support.

    At the same time, many alliance advocates underestimate the impact of the new challenges we face. Some assumed a continuity between the first and second Trump administrations. However, we are not convinced the lessons learned from Trump 1.0 are still valid.

    A key difference between Trump 1.0 and 2.0 is the effect of his move away from respecting international law.

    For example, the US has voted with Russia against UN Security Council resolutions condemning the Ukraine war, withdrawn from the Paris Climate Agreement and World Health Organization, and damaged relations with NATO allies, among many other actions.

    As a middle power, Australia has long relied on the “rules-based order” to advance its foreign and strategic policy interests.

    Even if “normal transmission” resumes under a new US president in 2029, we are concerned the Trump administration’s structural changes to the international order will not easily be wound back. American soft power has been decimated by cuts to the US State Department, USAID and international broadcasting services. This will also not be rebuilt quickly.

    A second difference is there are few “adults left in the room” in the Trump administration.

    The advisers who kept Trump in check during his first administration have been replaced by loyalists less likely to push back against his ideas and impulses. This includes his long-held grievance that allies have been exploiting the US.

    The Albanese government needs to think more deeply about how to hedge against dependence on the US. This means investing in relations with other partners, especially in Asia and the Pacific, and working with them to promote the laws, rules and norms that maintain stability and predictability in global affairs.

    An idealistic vision for the future

    We are also concerned that many in the national security community base their policy recommendations on the assumption that war between the US and China is inevitable, and such a conflict could draw in Australia as America’s ally.

    Rather, the Trump administration’s preference for “deals” opens the possibility the US and China might come to an arrangement that will affect US presence and leadership in our region.

    Australia may not be prepared for this. The new government must engage in more open discussion about how we would maintain our security if the US does pull back from the region or makes decisions Australians don’t support.

    As a start, we need to consider how Australia can better pursue self-reliance within the alliance structure. We need a range of strategic options in the future that don’t rely on an outdated image of the US as a reliable partner.

    This debate should be guided by what we call “pragmatic idealism”.

    Rather than accepting the way things are, the government and members of the national security community need to re-imagine how things can be.

    We argue the Albanese government should draw confidence from its thumping electoral win to articulate a politics of hope, opportunity and possibility for our future security. This needs to drown out the cynicism, passive acceptance and learned helplessness that often characterises Australian national security debates.

    We are conscious that being “idealistic” is often dismissed as impractical, naïve “wishful thinking”. But the new government needs to demonstrate to Australians it has the courage to face the diverse, interlinked and complex security challenges we face – potentially on our own. These extend to issues such as cyber attacks, transnational crime and climate change.

    Practical steps

    As a first step, the Albanese government urgently needs to commission an integrated National Security Strategy that considers all the tools of statecraft Australia can use to respond to these challenges.

    This means engaging more with partners in Southeast Asia and the Pacific. In particular, Australia should consider investing more heavily in information programs and public diplomacy as the US withdraws from this arena.

    The government must also engage better with the public and be more transparent about its security options and decisions.

    On AUKUS, for instance, the government must build its “social licence” from the public to sustain such a massive deal across generations. Australians need to be better informed about – and consulted on – the decisions they will ultimately pay for.

    This also includes being upfront with Australians about the need for greater defence spending in a tumultuous world.

    It is understandably tempting for the new Albanese government to continue a “small target” when it comes to the US. This has meant minimising domestic debate about the alliance that could undermine support for AUKUS and avoid risking the ire of a thin-skinned Trump.

    But the government needs the courage to ask difficult questions and imagine different futures.

    Joanne Wallis receives funding from the Australian Research Council, the Australian Department of Defence, and the government of South Australia. She is a Senior Nonresident Fellow of the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C.

    Rebecca Strating receives funding from the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    – ref. Australia can no longer take a ‘business as usual’ approach to the US. On security, it’s time for courage and confidence – https://theconversation.com/australia-can-no-longer-take-a-business-as-usual-approach-to-the-us-on-security-its-time-for-courage-and-confidence-255598

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Thought the election campaign was boring? Maybe you’re just not on TikTok

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Grantham, Lecturer in Communication, Griffith University

    This year’s election campaign marked a turning point in Australian politics. TikTok has emerged not just as another tool, but as a main battleground.

    Although it played a part in the 2022 election, this was the first time the two major parties and the Greens embraced short-form video as a serious campaign strategy.

    These videos may seem silly or nonsensical, but for many Gen Z voters, they may have been the only political messages they encountered in the entire five-week campaign. Given the dominance of Gen Z and Millennial voters, social media videos are increasingly important.

    A blend of trends, podcasts and thirst traps

    The Australian Labor Party’s campaign leaned heavily into TikTok culture, crafting a multi-pronged strategy to reach younger voters where they scroll. This included meme engagement like this absurdist #italianbrainrot trend.

    #brainrot refers to deliberately absurd, low-effort videos that thrive on chaos and nonsensical repetition.

    It’s an existing TikTok trend that started in early 2025 and is designed to capture attention in an oversaturated feed. In other words, don’t try to understand, just watch and enjoy.

    Another standout is a now-viral video of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese edited with the stylistic flair typical of TikTok “thirst trap” content. The editing style and music choice are both characteristic of this sub-genre of video designed to make the subject appear attractive.

    It walked a fine line between irony and sincerity: an intentional nod to the platform’s unique language and humour. While some lapped it up as clever, others question whether such tactics undermine the seriousness of politics.

    Labor also heavily invested in podcasting, with Albanese appearing on youth-oriented shows with the likes of Abbie Chatfield and Ozzy Man. These long-form interviews were mostly promoted by the podcasters themselves, which was a clever use of their existing audiences. It contributed to a strategy that prioritised personality as much as policy.

    Combined with a coordinated influencer outreach, including briefings with popular creators, Labor’s campaign showed a keen understanding of the algorithmic economy. Whether it was cringey or clever, it was undeniably calculated.

    Trendsetters with turbulence

    The Liberal Party started its TikTok campaigning back in December 2024. These early videos, many AI-generated, saw remarkable traction. The highest-viewed video, an AI voice-change take on a scene from “The Grinch”, has been viewed 2.8 million times.

    Then came “Tim Cheese”, a trending fictional character they used to blur the lines in political storytelling. A “bad guy”, Tim Cheese was used by the Liberals to highlight that the known bad guys aren’t always bad.

    One standout video was the introduction of “Cheesy Albanese”, which merged political satire with platform-native humour that resonated with the audience.

    The Liberals also tapped into trending sounds and aesthetics such as #brainrot and #italianbrainrot. In fairness, they were the first to use it before the official campaign started.

    But with any innovative campaign comes risk.

    A notable misstep was the repurposing of influencer content, including that of Holly MacAlpine.

    Topham Guerin, the strategy company behind the campaign, has a reputation for provocative approaches that can come close to, but don’t actually break, the law. However, this use of content did wear thin for some followers, sparking early signs of disengagement.

    The campaign’s second major stumble came on election day.

    US-based TikTok creator Ray William Johnson, who has more than 18.5 million followers, called out the Liberals for blocking his account when they clearly used his video and animation style.

    Johnson said he had no issue with the mimicry, but the party’s pre-emptive blocking of him fuelled backlash. His response video, now seen more than 12 million times, ends with a blunt directive: “I hope everyone goes out and votes for the other guy.”

    It was a viral moment that undid much of the earlier momentum, and demonstrates the high stakes of campaigning in the age of creator culture.

    Despite a clever response video from the Liberals, it was overshadowed by the sheer scale of the backlash.

    With these lows there was still highs, including a highly effective and trending video game that saw players “Escape Albo”.

    The Liberals were early trendsetters, creating boundary-pushing content for all users, even those without strong political views. They experimented with styles that went on to be mimicked, particularly with Labor’s #brainrot-inspired content.

    Greens go from giant toothbrushes to DJ sets

    In a bid to connect with the gaming community, Tasmanian Senator Nick McKim took to livestreaming sessions of the popular game Fortnite. Donning comfortable clothes and a headset, McKim engaged viewers with gaming lingo and humour, aiming to make politics more relatable to younger audiences.

    These videos were a huge success, with this one being viewed 1.4 million times.

    A central feature of the Greens social media campaign was the deployment of a giant toothbrush prop, symbolising the party’s commitment to integrating dental care into Medicare. It featured across various platforms and was a nice link to events in Brisbane and Melbourne.

    These events featured the support of big-name influencers and prompted spinoff videos launching Greens Leader Adam Bandt’s DJ career.

    But despite the flashy props, influencer cameos and party vibes, the Greens’ campaign often felt more like a collection of stunts than a cohesive digital strategy: memorable in moments, but ultimately lacking impact.

    Did it make any difference?

    While many labelled the 2025 election dull, the TikTok campaign told a different story. It was unpredictable, occasionally “cringe”, but deeply entertaining.

    It’s too soon to know if any of this shifted votes or even opinions. Party officials, campaign strategists and academics will all be watching closely to find out.

    While social media is ubiquitous in our lives, using it to campaign is still relatively new in our political history. There are no best-practice guidelines or proven approaches. Of all this content thrown at the wall, it will be fascinating to see what sticks.

    But to the millions of Australians on TikTok, politics has never looked or sounded quite like it did in 2025.

    Susan Grantham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Thought the election campaign was boring? Maybe you’re just not on TikTok – https://theconversation.com/thought-the-election-campaign-was-boring-maybe-youre-just-not-on-tiktok-255847

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: A ‘Trump slump’ has lifted the left in Canada and now Australia – what are the lessons for NZ?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Grant Duncan, Teaching Fellow in Politics and International Relations, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Trying to capitalise on the electoral success of US President Donald Trump, now that his policies are having real-world effects, is proving to be a big mistake for conservative leaders.

    Australian voters have delivered a landslide win for the incumbent Labor Party, returning Prime Minister Anthony Albanese for a second term with a clear majority of seats.

    When he said in his victory speech that Australians had “voted for Australian values”, an unspoken message was that they’d firmly rejected Trumpian values.

    Meanwhile, opposition and Liberal Party leader Peter Dutton had such a bad election he lost his own seat. While not the only reason for his electoral demise, Dutton’s adoption of themes associated with Trump backfired.

    As recently as mid-February, however, it was a completely different story. Opinion polls were projecting Dutton’s Coalition to win. Betting markets followed suit, pricing in a change of government.

    But by March, Labor had pulled ahead in the polls, and exceeded expectations in the election itself. As one commentator put it, the Liberals were “reduced to a right-wing populist party that is all but exiled from the biggest cities”.

    Reversal of fortune

    Where, then, did Dutton go wrong? Commentators identified a number of reasons, including his “culture wars” and being depicted by Labor as “Trump-lite”.

    Following a Trumpian pathway turned out to be a strategic blunder. And Dutton’s downfall mirrors Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s defeat in Canada’s election on April 28.

    In January, Canada’s incumbent centre-left Liberals were heading for defeat to the Conservatives. But there were two gamechangers: the Liberals switched leaders from Justin Trudeau to Mark Carney, and Trump caused a national uproar with his aggressive tariffs and his call for Canada to become the 51st US state.

    Pre-election opinion polls then did a dramatic flip in favour of the Liberals, who went on to win their fourth election in a row.

    Poilievre’s campaign had adopted elements of the Trump style, such as attacking “wokeness” and using derogatory nicknames for opponents.

    His strategy failed as soon as Trump rolled out “America First” policies contrary to Canadians’ economic interests and national pride. The takeaway for serious right-wing leaders in liberal democracies is clear: let Trump do Trump; his brand is toxic.

    Not a universal trend

    Trump’s actions are harming America’s allies. His tariffs, disregard for the rule of law, and tough policies on migrants, affirmative action and climate change have seen voters outside the US react with self-protective patriotism.

    A perceived association with Trump’s brand has now upended the electoral fortunes of (so far) two centre-right parties that had been in line to win, and had been banking on the 2024 MAGA success somehow rubbing off on them.

    Admittedly, what has been dubbed the “Trump slump” isn’t a universal trend.

    In Germany, the centre-left Social Democratic-led government was ousted in February, in spite of Trump ally Elon Musk’s unhelpful support for the far-right, anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

    And in the United Kingdom, the populist Reform UK party has risen above 25%, while Labour has fallen from 34% in last year’s election to the low 20s in recent polls.

    But other governing centre-left parties are seeing an upside of the Trump effect.
    Norway’s next election is on September 8. In early January it looked like the incumbent Labour Party would be trounced by the Conservatives and the right-wing Progress Party.

    Opinion polls dramatically flipped in early February, however, boosting Labour from below 20% back into the lead, hitting 30%. If that trend is sustained, Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre will get another term in office.

    Denmark’s governing Social Democrats have enjoyed a small polling boost, too, since Trump declared he’d like to take Greenland off their hands.

    Lessons for NZ’s left and right

    The common denominator underlying these shifts to the left seems to be the Trump effect. Voters in countries normally closely allied with the US are turning away from Trump-adjacent politicians.

    In 2024, elections tended to go against incumbents. But, for now at least, people are rallying patriotically around centre-left, sitting governments.

    Ironically, Trump is harming leaders who could have been his allies. Unrepentant as always, the man himself seemed proud of the impact he had in Canada.

    Winston Peters: culture war rhetoric.
    Getty Images

    In Australia and New Zealand, polls in mid-2024 showed support for Trump was growing – heading well above 20%. Australia’s election suggests that trend may now be past its peak.

    In New Zealand, with debate over ACT’s contentious Treaty Principles Bill behind it, and despite NZ First leader Winston Peters’ overt culture-war rhetoric (which may appeal to his 6% support base), the right-wing coalition government’s polling shows it could be on track for a second term – for the time being.

    While the Trump effect may have benefited centre-left parties in Australia and Canada, polling for New Zealand’s Labour opposition is softer than at the start of the year.

    While “America First” policies continue to damage the global economy, centre-right leaders who learn the lesson will quietly distance themselves from the Trump brand, while maintaining cordial relations with the White House.

    Centre-left leaders, however, could do worse than follow Anthony Albanese’s example of not getting distracted by “Trump-lite” and instead promoting his own country’s values of fairness and mutual respect.

    Grant Duncan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A ‘Trump slump’ has lifted the left in Canada and now Australia – what are the lessons for NZ? – https://theconversation.com/a-trump-slump-has-lifted-the-left-in-canada-and-now-australia-what-are-the-lessons-for-nz-255715

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is a ‘smart city’ and why should we care? It’s not just a buzzword

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor & Principal Fellow in Urban Risk & Resilience, The University of Melbourne

    guitar photographer/Shutterstock

    More than half of the world’s population currently lives in cities and this share is expected to rise to nearly 70% by 2050.

    It’s no wonder “smart cities” have become a buzzword in urban planning, politics and tech circles, and even media.

    The phrase conjures images of self-driving buses, traffic lights controlled by artificial intelligence (AI) and buildings that manage their own energy use.

    But for all the attention the term receives, it’s not clear what actually makes a city smart. Is it about the number of sensors installed? The speed of the internet? The presence of a digital dashboard at the town hall?

    Governments regularly speak of future-ready cities and the promise of “digital transformation”. But when the term “smart city” is used in policy documents or on the campaign trail, it often lacks clarity.

    Over the past two decades, governments around the world have poured billions into smart city initiatives, often with more ambition than clarity. The result has been a patchwork of projects: some genuinely transformative, others flashy but shallow.

    So, what does it really mean for a city to be smart? And how can technology solve real urban problems, not just create new ones?

    What is a smart city, then?

    The term “smart city” has been applied to a wide range of urban technologies and initiatives – from traffic sensors and smart meters to autonomous vehicles and energy-efficient building systems.

    But a consistent, working definition remains elusive.

    In academic and policy circles, one widely accepted view is that a smart city is one where technology is used to enhance key urban outcomes: liveability, sustainability, social equity and, ultimately, people’s quality of life.

    What matters here is whether the application of technology leads to measurable improvements in the way people live, move and interact with the city around them.

    By that standard, many “smart city” initiatives fall short, not because the tools don’t exist, but because the focus is often on visibility and symbolic infrastructure rather than impact.

    This could be features like high-tech digital kiosks in public spaces that are visibly modern and offer some use and value, but do little to address core urban challenges.

    The reality of urban governance – messy, decentralised, often constrained – is a long way from the seamless dashboards and simulations often promised in promotional material.

    But there is a way to help join together the various aspects of city living, with the help of “digital twins”.

    Slick digital dashboards that show the stats of a city at a glance are a far cry from the messy reality of city governance.
    thinkhubstudio/Shutterstock

    Digital twin (of?) cities

    Much of the early focus on smart cities revolved around individual technologies: installing sensors, launching apps or creating control centres. But these tools often worked in isolation and offered limited insight into how the city functioned as a whole.

    City digital twins represent a shift in approach.

    Instead of layering technology onto existing systems, a city digital twin creates a virtual replica of those systems. It links real-time data across transport, energy, infrastructure and the environment. It’s a kind of living, evolving model of the city that changes as the real city changes.

    This enables planners and policymakers to test decisions before making them. They can simulate the impact of a new road, assess the risk of flooding in a changing climate or compare the outcomes of different zoning options.

    Used in this way, digital twins support decisions that are better informed, more responsive, and more in tune with how cities actually work.

    Not all digital twins operate at the same level. Some offer little more than 3D visualisations, while others bring in real-time data and support complex scenario testing.

    The most advanced ones don’t just simulate the city, but interact with it.

    Where it’s working

    To manage urban change, some cities are already using digital twins to support long-term planning and day-to-day decision-making – and not just as add-ons.

    In Singapore, the Virtual Singapore project is one of the most advanced city-scale digital twins in the world.

    It integrates high-resolution 3D models of Singapore with real-time and historical data from across the city. The platform has been used by government agencies to model energy consumption, assess climate and air flow impacts of new buildings, manage underground infrastructure, and explore zoning options based on risks like flooding in a highly constrained urban environment.

    In Helsinki, the Kalasatama digital twin has been used to evaluate solar energy potential, conduct wind simulations and plan building orientations. It has also been integrated into public engagement processes: the OpenCities Planner platform lets residents explore proposed developments and offer feedback before construction begins.

    Urban planners in Helsinki have been using a digital twin to help plan building orientations.
    Mistervlad/Shutterstock

    We need a smarter conversation about smart cities

    If smart cities are going to matter, they must do more than sound and look good. They need to solve real problems, improve people’s lives and protect the privacy and integrity of the data they collect.

    That includes being built with strong safeguards against cyber threats. A connected city should not be a more vulnerable city.

    The term smart city has always been slippery – more aspiration than definition. That ambiguity makes it hard to measure whether, or how, a city becomes smart. But one thing is clear: being smart doesn’t mean flooding citizens with apps and screens, or wrapping public life in flashy tech.

    The smartest cities might not even feel digital on the surface. They would work quietly in the background, gather only the data they need, coordinate it well and use it to make citizens’ life safer, fairer and more efficient.

    Milad Haghani receives funding from The Australian Research Council & The Australian Government.

    Abbas Rajabifard receives funding from Victorian Government via Land Use Department.

    Benny Chen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is a ‘smart city’ and why should we care? It’s not just a buzzword – https://theconversation.com/what-is-a-smart-city-and-why-should-we-care-its-not-just-a-buzzword-255419

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Newly discovered tropical oyster reefs are thriving across northern Australia – they deserve protection

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Marina Richardson, Research Fellow in Marine Science, Griffith University

    Marina Richardson

    Oysters are so much more than a seafood delicacy. They’re ecosystem engineers, capable of building remarkably complex reefs. These structures act as the kidneys of the sea, cleaning the water and keeping the coast healthy, while providing homes for millions of other animals.

    Oyster reefs were once thought to be restricted to southern, cooler coastal waters where they’re the temperate equivalent of tropical coral reefs. But now, oyster reefs are being found right across Australia’s tropical north as well.

    These tropical oyster reefs are bigger and more widespread than anyone expected. In fact, they are some of the largest known intertidal oyster reefs (exposed at low tide) left in Australia. And they’re everywhere – from the southern limit of the Queensland tropics across to the northern coast of Western Australia – yet we know almost nothing about them.

    In our recent research, my colleagues and I completed the first detailed study of Australian tropical oyster reefs. These reefs are so new to science that until now, the species responsible for building them remained a mystery.

    Using DNA, we identified the main reef-building oyster species in tropical Australia as “Saccostrea Lineage B”, making it a new addition to our national list of known reef-builders.

    Lineage B is a close relative of the commercially important Sydney rock oyster (Saccostrea glomerata), but so little is known about this tropical reef-building species that it is yet to be assigned a scientific name.

    The Saccostrea Lineage B oysters we found in Australia’s tropical north are related to Sydney rock oysters.
    Marina Richardson

    Hiding in plain sight

    So why are we only learning about tropical oyster reefs now?

    Across the globe, oyster reefs have been decimated by human activity. These reefs declined in most tropical regions long ago, even as far back as 1,000 years ago. Most oyster reefs disappeared without a trace before scientists even knew they were there.

    However, Australia’s tropical oyster reefs haven’t just survived, in some cases they have thrived.

    Despite being delicious to many, the species we now know as Lineage B was not very attractive to the aquaculture industry, due to its small size. And while oyster reefs near Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne were dredged and burned to produce lime for mortar, used in the early construction of roads and buildings, this practice was not widespread in tropical regions. This lack of commercial interest is probably the reason why tropical oyster reefs have persisted unnoticed for so long in northern Australia.

    Here the tropical oyster reefs were found growing on a combination of both rock and muddy sediment.
    Marina Richardson

    What we did and what we found

    We assessed three tropical oyster reefs in Queensland, Australia. At Wilson Beach, near Proserpine and Turkey Beach, near Gladstone, reefs were surveyed in late winter 2022. The reef at Mapoon in the Gulf of Carpentaria was surveyed in early spring 2023.

    Using drone footage, we measured reef area and structure. We then collected oysters for genetic analysis.

    Oysters are notoriously difficult to identify, because their shape, size and colour varies so much. Oysters from the same species can look completely different, while oysters from different species can look identical. That’s why it’s necessary to extract DNA.

    We found almost all reef-building oysters across the three locations were Saccostrea Lineage B.

    At Gladstone reefs, several other reef-building species were also present, including leaf oysters, pearl oysters and hairy mussels.

    We compared three tropical oyster reefs in Queensland.
    Richardson, M., et al (2025) Marine Environmental Research

    An ecosystem worthy of protection

    In southern Australia, oyster reefs are critically endangered. But we don’t really know how threatened their tropical counterparts are, although there is some evidence of decline. Further research is underway.

    A new project has begun to map oyster reefs across tropical Australia. Since the project launched in June 2024, more than 60 new reefs have been found across Queensland, the Northern Territory and Western Australia – including some as large as 5 hectares.

    These unexpected discoveries provide a beacon of hope in a world currently overwhelmed by habitat decline and ecological collapse. But tropical oyster reefs are not yet protected. It’s crucial we include them in assessments of threatened ecosystems, to understand how much trouble they’re in and what we can do to protect them into the future.

    By locating and understanding these overlooked ecosystems, we can ensure they’re not left behind in the global oyster reef restoration movement.

    Scientists and others involved in reef restoration are now inviting everyday people across Australia to get involved as citizen scientists in The Great Shellfish Hunt. Anyone can upload tropical oyster reef sightings to this mapping project. It’s more important than ever to work together and ensure tropical oyster reefs receive the protection they deserve, so they continue to thrive for generations to come.

    Marina Richardson currently receives funding from the National Environmental Science Program (NESP) and the Queensland Government Department of Environment, Tourism, Science and Innovation.

    – ref. Newly discovered tropical oyster reefs are thriving across northern Australia – they deserve protection – https://theconversation.com/newly-discovered-tropical-oyster-reefs-are-thriving-across-northern-australia-they-deserve-protection-254612

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: We talk a lot about being ‘resilient’. But what does it actually mean?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter McEvoy, Professor of Clinical Psychology, Curtin University

    Kinga Howard/Unsplash

    In a world with political polarisation, war, extreme weather events and increasing costs of living, we need to be able to cope as individuals and communities.

    Our capacity to cope with very real stressors in our lives – our resilience – can determine whether we thrive, just survive, or are deprived of a reasonable quality of life.

    Stress vs resilience

    Resilience means having the ability to cope with, and rebound from, life’s challenges and still achieve our goals.

    Stress isn’s something to be avoided. We need to feel some stress to achieve our best. Exposure to manageable levels of stress and adversity develops our coping skills and resilience.

    But if we feel too much stress, we can flounder or become overwhelmed.

    The ability to re-activate ourselves when we feel down, fatigued or disengaged helps to optimise our focus and motivation. Sportspeople, for example, might listen to high intensity music just before a competition to increase their energy levels.

    Conversely, the ability to dampen down emotional intensity can make use feel less stressed or anxious. Exercising, listening to relaxing music, or patting a much-loved pet can prevent high arousal from interfering with completing a task.

    Effective emotion regulation is crucial for adapting to life’s ups and downs, and keeping us on a relatively even keel.

    How does resilience develop?

    Resilience emerges from interactions between personal and environmental factors.

    In addition to emotion regulation skills, personal factors that can bolster resilience include academic achievement, developing a range of skills and abilities (such as sport and music) and problem-solving skills. Many of these skills can be fostered in childhood. And if one area of life isn’t going well, we can still experience confidence, joy and meaning in others.

    Sometimes we need to increase our energy levels, other times we need to lower anxiety.
    Ilias Chebbi/Unsplash

    People who reflect on traumatic experience and develop new positive meanings about themselves (getting through it means I’m strong!) and life (a greater appreciation) can also have higher levels of resilience.

    Genetic factors and temperament also play an important role. Some of us are born with nervous systems that respond with more anxiety than others in novel, uncertain, or potentially threatening situations. And some of us are more likely to avoid rather than approach these situations. These traits tend to be associated with lower levels of resilience. But we can all learn skills to build our resilience.

    Environmental factors that promote resilience include:

    • a nurturing home environment
    • supportive family and peer relationships
    • cultural identity, belonging and rituals
    • modelling from others overcoming hardship
    • community cohesion
    • government policies that provide social safety nets, strong education, anti-discrimination and inclusion
    • investment in facilities, spaces, services and networks that support the quality of life and wellbeing of communities.

    Can resilience be taught?

    Many factors associated with resilience are modifiable, so it stands to reason that interventions that aim to bolster them should be helpful.

    There is evidence that interventions that promote optimism, flexibility, active coping and social support-seeking can have small yet meaningful positive effects on resilience and emotional wellbeing in children and adults.

    However, school-based programs give us reason to be cautious.

    A trial across 84 schools in the United Kingdom evaluated the effectiveness of school-based mindfulness programs. More than 3,500 students aged between 11 and 13 years received ten lessons of mindfulness and a similar number did not.

    There was no evidence that mindfulness had any benefit on risk for depression, social, emotional and behavioural functioning, or wellbeing after one year. Teaching school children mindfulness at scale did not appear to bolster resilience.

    In fact, there was some evidence it did harm – and it was most harmful for students at the highest risk of depression. The intervention was not deemed to be effective or cost-effective and was not recommended by the authors.

    In another recent trial, researchers found an emotion regulation intervention with Year 8 and 9 school children was unhelpful and even harmful, although children who engaged in more home practice tended to do better.

    The evidence doesn’t support school-based resilience programs.
    Mitchell Luo/Unsplash

    These interventions may have failed for a number of reasons. The content may not have been delivered in a way that was sufficiently engaging, comprehensive, age-appropriate, frequent, individually tailored, or relevant to the school context. Teachers may also not be sufficiently trained in delivering these interventions for them to be effective. And students didn’t co-design the interventions.

    Regardless of the reasons, these findings suggest we need to be cautious when delivering universal interventions to all children. It may be more helpful to wait until there are early signs of excessive stress and intervening in an individualised way.

    What does this mean for resilience-building?

    Parents and schools have a role in providing children with the sense of security that gives them confidence to explore their environments and make mistakes in age-appropriate ways, and providing support when needed.

    Parents and teachers can encourage children to try to solve problems themselves before getting involved. Problem-solving attempts should be celebrated even more than success.

    Schools need to allocate their scarce resources to children most in need of practical and emotional support in non-stigmatising ways, rather than universal approaches. Most children will develop resilience without intervention programs.

    To promote resilience, schools can foster positive peer relationships, cultural identity and involvement in creative, sporting and academic pursuits. They can also highlight others’ recovery and resilience stories to demonstrate how growth can occur from adversity.

    More broadly in the community, people can work on developing their own emotion regulation skills to bolster their confidence in their ability to manage adversity.

    Think about how you can:

    • approach challenges in constructive ways
    • actively problem-solve rather than avoid challenges
    • genuinely accept failure as part of being human
    • establish healthy boundaries
    • align your behaviour with your values
    • receive social and professional support when needed.

    This will help you navigate the ebbs and flows of life in ways that support recovery and growth.



    Read more:
    People’s mental health goes downhill after repeated climate disasters – it’s an issue of social equity

    Peter McEvoy is a Professor of clinical psychology at the Curtin enAble Institute and School of Population Health. He is also a Senior Clinical Psychologist at The Centre for Clinical Interventions, Perth, and a Board Member of the Australian Association of Cognitive Behaviour Therapy. He does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article. The opinions and perspectives in this article are his own.

    – ref. We talk a lot about being ‘resilient’. But what does it actually mean? – https://theconversation.com/we-talk-a-lot-about-being-resilient-but-what-does-it-actually-mean-245256

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: In its soul-searching, the Coalition should examine its relationship with the media

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Ricketson, Professor of Communication, Deakin University

    Among the many lessons to be learnt by the Liberal-National Coalition parties from the election is that they should stop getting into bed with News Corporation Australia.

    Why would a political party outsource its policy platform and strategy to people with plenty of opinions, but no experience in actually running a government?

    The result of the federal election suggests that unlike the Coalition, many Australians are ignoring the opinions of News Corp Australia’s leading journalists such as Andrew Bolt and Sharri Markson.

    Last Thursday, in her eponymous program on Sky News Australia, Markson said:

    For the first time in my journalistic career I’m going to also offer a pre-election editorial, endorsing one side of politics […] A Dutton prime ministership would give our great nation the fresh start we deserve.

    After a vote count that sees the Labor government returned with an increased majority, Bolt wrote a piece for the Herald Sun admonishing voters:

    No, the voters aren’t always right. This time they were wrong, and this gutless and incoherent Coalition should be ashamed. Australians just voted for three more years of a Labor government that’s left this country poorer, weaker, more divided and deeper in debt, and which won only by telling astonishing lies. That’s staggering. If that’s what voters really like, then this country is going to get more of it, good and hard.

    The Australian and most of News’ tabloid newspapers endorsed the Coalition in their election eve editorials.

    The election result was a repudiation of the minor culture war Dutton reprised during the campaign when he advised voters to steer clear of the ABC and “other hate media”. It may have felt good alluding to “leftie-woke” tropes about the ABC, but it was a tactical error. The message probably resonated only with rusted-on hardline Coalition voters and supporters of right-wing minor parties.



    Read more:
    Peter Dutton calling the ABC and the Guardian ‘hate media’ rings alarm bells for democracy

    But they were either voting for the Coalition, or sending them their preferences, anyway. Instead, attacking the ABC sent a signal to the people the Coalition desperately needed to keep onside – the moderates who already felt disappointed by the Coalition’s drift to the right and who were considering voting Teal or for another independent.

    Attacking just about the most trusted media outlet in the country simply gave those voters another reason to believe the Coalition no longer represented their values.

    Reporting from the campaign bus is often derided as shallow form of election coverage. Reporters tend to be captive to a party’s agenda and don’t get to look much beyond a leader’s message. But there was real value in covering Dutton’s daily stunts and doorstops, often in the outer suburbs that his electoral strategy relied on winning over.

    What was revealed by having journalists on the bus was the paucity of policy substance. Details about housing affordability and petrol pricing – which voters desperately wanted to hear – were little more than sound bites.

    This was obvious by Dutton’s second visit to a petrol station, and yet there were another 15 to come. The fact that the campaign bus steered clear of the sites for proposed nuclear plants was also telling.

    The grind of daily coverage helped expose the lateness of policy releases, the paucity of detail and the lack of preparation for the campaign, let alone for government.

    On ABC TV’s Insiders, the Nine Newspapers’ political editor, David Crowe, wondered whether the media has been too soft on Dutton, rather than too hard as some Coalition supporters might assume.

    He reckoned that if the media had asked more difficult questions months ago, Dutton might have been stress-tested and better prepared before the campaign began.

    Instead, the Coalition went into the election believing it would be enough to attack Labor without presenting a fully considered alternative vision. Similarly, it would suffice to appear on friendly media outlets such as News Corp, and avoid more searching questions from the Canberra press gallery or on the ABC.

    Reporters and commentators across the media did a reasonable job of exposing this and holding the opposition to account. The scrutiny also exposed its increasingly desperate tactics late in the campaign, such as turning on Welcome to Country ceremonies.

    If many Australians appear more interested in what their prospective political leaders have to say about housing policy or climate change than the endless culture wars being waged by the coalition, that message did not appear to have been heard by Peta Credlin.

    The Sky News Australia presenter and former chief of staff to prime minister Tony Abbott said during Saturday night’s election coverage “I’d argue we didn’t do enough of a culture war”.

    Andrew Dodd has been the recipient of Australian Research Council funding

    Matthew Ricketson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. In its soul-searching, the Coalition should examine its relationship with the media – https://theconversation.com/in-its-soul-searching-the-coalition-should-examine-its-relationship-with-the-media-255846

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Smith, Associate Professor in American Politics and Foreign Policy, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    Australia’s federal election, held less than a week after Canada’s, has produced a shockingly similar outcome. Commentators all over the world have pointed out the parallels.

    In both countries, centre-left governments looked like they were in serious trouble not long ago.

    On February 23, a Resolve Strategic poll found the Coalition leading Labor 55-45% on a two-party-preferred basis. An Angus Reid poll in December found voting intention for Canada’s Liberals dropping to just 16%, compared to 45% for the Conservatives.

    Yet, both governments are now celebrating historic victories. And in both countries, the conservative opposition leaders, Pierre Poilievre and Peter Dutton, lost their own seats.

    US President Donald Trump was undoubtedly a factor in both elections. Even Trump’s most ardent Australian fans admit the reversal of the Coalition’s fortunes in the polls seems to have been precipitated by Trump’s actions, particularly his chaotic tariff announcements and his White House humiliation of Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

    In Canada, Trump cheerfully presented himself as an existential threat to the country.

    But if anything, Labor’s landslide win in the Australian election on Saturday highlights just how poorly the Coalition fared under Dutton compared to Canada’s Conservatives. The Coalition bottomed out, while the Tories fared reasonably well in the face of difficult circumstances.

    A painful but respectable loss for Conservatives in Canada

    So, why the huge difference between the two parties? This is largely because of the differences between the Canadian and Australian electoral systems.

    Unlike Australia, Canada does not have preferential voting – a vote for one party is a vote against another. The Liberals’ rise in the polls came mostly at the expense of the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) rather than the Conservatives.

    Back in December, 21% of voters preferred the NDP, compared to 16% for Justin Trudeau’s deeply unpopular Liberals. But when Trudeau stepped down and Mark Carney became the party’s new leader, the threat posed by Trump unified centre-left Canadian voters behind the Liberals, who had the best chance of winning.

    This is the strategic voting that is necessary in winner-take-all systems. The NDP has never won the largest share of seats in a national election, and it never had a chance of winning this one.

    The NDP was left with seven seats in last week’s election and under 7% of the vote, losing their party status in parliament and their leader. This was the most significant “Trump effect” on the Canadian election.

    Canada’s Conservatives ended up with 41.3% of the vote. This was only a few points down from their December high of 45% in the Angus Reid poll. They also won the greatest share of the national vote by any centre-right party since 1988, and expanded their share of seats in the parliament.

    The Liberals, meanwhile, barely won the popular vote and fell three seats short of a majority.

    Poilievre was rightly criticised for failing to respond effectively to the challenge posed by Trump’s bullying, instead continuing to campaign as if the election were still a referendum on Trudeau.

    That may have cost him a victory that seemed certain months earlier, especially considering Carney made his campaign all about standing up to Trump.

    Yet, the Conservatives still performed well enough for Poilievre to retain his position as opposition leader despite losing his seat. Another Conservative sacrificed his own seat to let Poilievre back into parliament.

    Dutton’s mistakes were bigger

    It’s hard to imagine any member of Dutton’s party doing the same. Dutton handed Labor a staggeringly high two-party-preferred vote and (likely) the most seats it has ever had. Labor won 86 seats in 1987, while Anthony Albanese’s party will have at least 86, with the count continuing.

    Dutton’s campaign has been widely described as “shambolic”. But it wasn’t just the last five weeks that doomed the Coalition.

    From the moment he became leader, it was clear Dutton had little interest in winning back the former Liberal heartland seats that fell to Teal independents in 2022. Instead, he held out the promise the outer suburbs would become the new heartland.

    Following the patterns established by John Howard, Tony Abbott and Scott Morrison, he believed the loss of middle-class women, once the backbone of the Liberal vote, could be compensated by gains among working-class men.

    This was always a pipe dream, given the flimsiness of the culture war issues that have been Dutton’s preferred terrain. But it drove urban voters further away from the Liberal Party.

    The Liberals should have been alarmed that in state elections and byelections last year, they were making almost no gains in metropolitan seats, whether inner suburban or outer suburban.

    The Coalition should resist seeing Trump as a natural disaster over which they had no control. Dutton consciously positioned himself as part of the global populist right that Trump leads. Voters recognised this, even when Dutton half-heartedly tried to distance himself from Trump.

    Not all right-wing populists are the same. Poilievre and Dutton have their own brands of populism they have spent decades cultivating, as have other right-wing populists like Javier Milei in Argentina. But in the suffocating global environment created by Trump, there is limited room for brand differentiation. He is the unavoidable reference point of right-wing politics.

    Last November, many right-wing figures thought this would benefit them. One of them is now a spectacular political casualty.

    David Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Blaming Donald Trump for conservative losses in both Canada and Australia is being too kind to Peter Dutton – https://theconversation.com/blaming-donald-trump-for-conservative-losses-in-both-canada-and-australia-is-being-too-kind-to-peter-dutton-255599

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election flops – a night to forget for minor parties on the left and the right

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maxine Newlands, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Centre for Policy Futures, University of Queensland, Adjunct Principal Research Fellow, Cairns Institute, James Cook University

    Minor parties were all the rage at the last election when, along with independent candidates, they secured almost a third of votes.

    But they have failed to build on that success at this election. The biggest and best funded of the minor parties – the Greens, One Nation and Trumpet of Patriots – have all had disappointing results.

    Few green shoots

    The Greens are the largest party outside of the traditional two-party system. But they failed to launch on Saturday night.

    In 2022, the Greens secured 12.2% of the primary support which returned a record four members to the lower house. This time around, their nationwide vote is up – but only marginally and not where it matters.

    The party has lost big in Queensland, with Stephen Bates in Brisbane and Max Chandler-Mather in Griffith relinquishing their seats to Labor. Elizabeth Watson-Brown could hold on in the neighbouring seat of Ryan, though preference flows will be critical.

    Peter Dutton might not be the only party leader to lose his seat, with Adam Bandt on a knife’s edge in Melbourne, which he has held for 15 years. Again, it will come down to the spread of preferences.

    The Greens had high hopes for two other Melbourne-based seats. They remain a chance in Wills, but got nowhere near it in Macnamara.

    And it is unlikely to snatch the New South Wales seat of Richmond from Labor despite running a close second on primary vote.

    Balance of power

    The Greens have performed much better in the Senate, where they will once again be the largest cross bench party with a predicted 11 seats.

    While the ALP will clearly dominate the lower house in the 48th parliament, the Senate is looking to be more of a two-way spilt between Labor and the Coalition.

    The Albanese government will likely require only the support of the Greens to pass legislation. This is a much better scenario for Labor than the previous parliament when it needed to stitch together all the Greens and four independents to navigate the Senate.

    Once again, the Greens will effectively hold the balance of power. However, Labor will have other crossbench options, such as independents David Pocock, Lidia Thorpe and Fatima Payman if the Greens obstruct bills that are also opposed by the Coalition.

    Minor party fizzers

    Despite their disappointing result in the lower house, the Greens easily outperformed the right-wing minor parties, most of which flopped.

    None more so than Clive Palmer’s newly registered Trumpet of Patriots, which fielded candidates in most lower house seats and in the Senate. It scored 1.8% of the vote, the highest positive swing of all the minor parties.

    But it misfired everywhere, despite Palmer’s reported $A50-60 million advertising spend. While Senate votes are still being counted, Trumpet of Patriots is lagging behind both One Nation and the Legalise Cannabis Party.

    Pauline Hanson’s One Nation recorded just over 6% of first preference votes, up only slightly on its 2022 result and nowhere near enough to win any lower house seats. However, there are enough disaffected voters in Queensland to return Malcolm Roberts to the Senate. Hanson won’t be up for reelection until 2028.

    Hanson’s daughter Lee Hanson is an outside chance of securing a Senate spot for One Nation in Tasmania. Her main rivals are Jacqui Lambie and Legalise Cannabis, which is also in the mix to win the final Senate seat in Victoria.

    Gerard Rennick’s People First party also failed to make an impression. So too, Fatima Payman’s Australia’s Voice.

    What next for the minor parties?

    Minor parties play an important role in the Australian political landscape, and have long been players in federal parliament.

    The previous two elections have seen shifts away from the two-party system, with one in four voters preferring minor parties or independent candidates in 2019, and one in three in 2022.

    On the numbers counted so far in this election, voters have favoured either the traditional major parties or the array of independent candidates.

    The trend towards minor parties has been halted, at least for now.

    Maxine Newlands does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election flops – a night to forget for minor parties on the left and the right – https://theconversation.com/election-flops-a-night-to-forget-for-minor-parties-on-the-left-and-the-right-255623

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Second-term Albanese will face policy pressure, devastated Liberals have only bad options

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    On February 1, on The Conversation’s podcast, Anthony Albanese not only declared that Labor would retain majority government, but held out the prospect it could win the Victorian Liberal seats of Menzies and Deakin.

    This was when the polls were still bad for Labor and the Coalition was confident of gaining a swathe of seats in Victoria.

    Now Liberal Michael Sukkar has lost Deakin to Labor’s Matt Gregg, while fellow Liberal Keith Wolahan says it is “more likely than not” he’ll be ousted from Menzies.

    Obviously Albanese’s political judgement was better than most. Two other points are notable. The first is how quickly things turned around. But there’s a counterpoint: maybe they didn’t turn around in quite the way they seemed. Perhaps a few months ago, voters were expressing their frustrations, but many were always going to be reluctant to endorse Peter Dutton when decision-time came.

    Even so, the extent of the decimation of the Liberals was nearly unthinkable. Labor minister Don Farrell said that two days out, Labor’s polling showed a majority but not this result. The Liberals are a rump, without a leader, with no obvious successor, and no clue of what direction to take a party left with hardly any urban seats and the prospect of another two terms, at least, in the wilderness.

    First, however, to the government. Albanese is basking in golden days. But he knows Labor must avoid hubris. As he enjoyed Sunday morning at a local coffee shop, he said “we will be a disciplined, orderly government”.

    To state the obvious, the win will boost Albanese’s authority. But it will also open him to pressures, externally and internally.

    In Labor’s first term, many commentators and stakeholders argued the government was too cautious. Some urged it should tackle more robust economic reform; others wanted it to shift left. Those voices will strengthen now Labor has the numbers to flex its muscles more vigorously. But Albanese is wary of breaking promises – it took a long time for him to go back on his word over the stage three tax cuts – or surprising the electorate.

    The person to watch is Treasurer Jim Chalmers.

    On Saturday night, the treasurer said, “We do believe we’re an ambitious government but we know there is a sense of impatience as well when it comes to some of our big national challenges”.

    Chalmers told the ABC on Sunday, “The best way to think about the difference between our first term and the second term that we won last night [is the] first term was primarily inflation without forgetting productivity, the second term will be primarily productivity without forgetting inflation”.

    This is a very big aspiration. Australia’s productivity performance is dreadful. If that’s to improve significantly, Chalmers may have to take on battles in some policy areas, such as industrial relations, that are very sensitive for Labor and the unions.

    The win, but more particularly the issues ahead, which focus on the economy here and overseas, will give Chalmers an even more central voice, as well as present even tougher tests for him. Chalmers was lavish in his praise of Albanese on Saturday night and Sunday; he said he had rung the PM during Saturday, before the result, and “I said his was an extraordinary campaign, he’s got a lot to be proud of and we are certainly proud to be part of his team”.

    For all that, Chalmers is, and sees himself as, Albanese’s most credible successor, although other aspirants are in the mix. Despite Albanese indicating he will serve a full term and the result leading people to say he will be well placed to lead into the 2028 election, that is not inevitable.

    Who will lead the Liberals into that election is absolutely unknowable. The potential field for the post election leadership vote is lacklustre, and whoever wins that vote could be a seat warmer.

    That field includes shadow treasurer Angus Taylor, deputy leader Sussan Ley, shadow immigration minister Dan Tehan, and defence spokesman Andrew Hastie.

    Taylor, an economic conservative, has faced immense criticism for his performance over the past three years. Ley, who is more towards the centre, has been guilty of overreach, although she’s toned down somewhat recently. Hastie has not broadened out from his defence comfort zone. Tehan is experienced but does not present well to voters.

    Dutton had a weak team around him; the next leader will have an even thinner one.

    Even more diabolical than who the Liberal Party should choose is where it should go in its positioning. The party has become an identity vacuum. It has lost its more genteel urbanites, and failed to win the aspirational suburbanites. These constituencies have different priorities but to revive themselves the Liberals have to thread the needle between them, which looks, at the moment, an impossible task.

    Then there are the problems with women and younger voters. The Liberals’ “women problem” has been debated for years; they seem further than ever from grappling with it. The failure ranges from candidate selection to policy blindness.

    On the latter, the working-from-home debacle was a classic example of disconnect with many women’s lives. The policy (later dumped) to bring public servants back to the office five days a week was driven by a woman, shadow finance minister Jane Hume. It wasn’t properly workshopped, but surely it was obvious that running this policy would be a disaster, especially with female voters. You wouldn’t need a focus group to tell you that.

    As the baby boomers, already outnumbered, fade further, how are the Liberals to connect with the younger voters who are now the dominant demographic? These voters are increasingly progressive. For them, the Liberals need generational change. But the only new generation contender in the present leadership list is Hastie, and he is a conservative.

    Another complication for the Liberals is that the Nationals have done well. This means they’ll have a bigger say in the Coalition, including a bigger share of the frontbench. This might push the Coalition further to the populist right. A few will argue the Coalition parties should separate, but this is not the answer – it hasn’t worked in the past.

    There’ll be a policy overhaul, and that could involve a tricky argument over nuclear, to which the Nationals especially are deeply committed. And will the Coalition commitment to the Paris agreement and the 2050 net zero emissions target come under assault?

    The Liberals are in an extraordinarily bad place. Politicians in such circumstances search for so-called “narrow goat tracks” to better ground. Debris is littering any track in sight for the Liberals. Their only comfort can be that politics is volatile.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Second-term Albanese will face policy pressure, devastated Liberals have only bad options – https://theconversation.com/second-term-albanese-will-face-policy-pressure-devastated-liberals-have-only-bad-options-255618

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Independents will not help form government – but they will be vital in holding it to account

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joshua Black, Visitor, School of History, Australian National University

    When the newspapers delivered their standard election-eve editorials, there were few surprises. Former Fairfax papers and smaller outlets offered qualified support for Labor, while the News Corp papers unashamedly championed the Coalition. In Adelaide, The Advertiser ran a curious line recommending a majority government of whatever persuasion, “lest our futures be in the hands of the mad Greens, self-serving teals or the independent rabble.”

    How must those editors feel this morning? On the one hand, they got the majority government they wished for, and then some. The 2025 election will be mythologised in Labor circles for decades to come.

    On the other hand, the “independent rabble” defied the expectations of some, and the best efforts of others, holding their seats and making gains in Sydney and Canberra, and potentially Melbourne and Perth as well. New crossbenchers will certainly be welcomed into the 48th parliament. And with the Coalition reeling from an historic defeat, they may all play a critical role in policy the debates to come.

    Weathering the storm

    The election campaign put all of the incumbent independent MPs through their paces. Coalition candidates and some of their outspoken media allies applied enormous personal pressure, with accusations of weakness on the issue of antisemitism and piercing questions from conservative news outlets about the transparency of some independent MPs’ donations.

    Vast sums of money were also involved. In the Perth-side seat of Curtin, for example, independent MP Kate Chaney’s supporters and the Liberal Party allegedly spent $1 million each on their respective campaigns.

    In the end, incumbent independents benefited from the historic pattern in federal politics: that a good independent is a tough proposition to beat. At election time, successful independent MPs benefit from the advantages of incumbency, the ability to point to specific policy or project victories arising from greater political competition for the seat, and the flexibility to adapt more quickly to changing voter attitudes, unencumbered by any party machinery.

    Zali Steggall in Warringah and Helen Haines in Indi enjoyed their third successive wins, Rebekah Sharkie in Mayo a fourth general election win (she won a competitive byelection in 2018), Andrew Wilkie in Hobart a sixth victory on the trot, and north Queensland’s Bob Katter yet another term after 50 years of parliamentary service.

    At the time of writing, all of the independents who won their seats in 2022 appear to have been returned. (The exception was Kylie Tink, whose electorate was abolished last year.) The closest count is in Goldstein, where incumbent Zoe Daniel narrowly leads her Liberal predecessor Tim Wilson. Other incumbents, such as Sophie Scamps in Mackellar, Allegra Spender in Wentworth, Monique Ryan in Kooyong and Kate Chaney in Curtin, have enjoyed distinctive swings toward them. In the formerly safe Labor seat of Fowler, where the party hoped to win, independent MP Dai Le enjoyed a handsome primary vote swing of around 6% in her favour.

    Changing hands

    The picture has been more mixed for the rest of the crossbench and other minor parties. The Greens seem set to lose two of their Brisbane seats, but a close race in the formerly safe Labor seat of Wills in Victoria may yet provide a win. Another record spendathon from Clive Palmer will see the Trumpet of Patriots win zero seats. One Nation may keep Queensland senator Malcolm Roberts in his place, but there do not appear to be any other gains for Pauline Hanson’s team.

    Coalition defectors fared poorly, too. Monash MP, independent and former Liberal Russell Broadbent, appears to have secured just 10% of the primary vote, placing him behind both major parties and the community independent candidate.

    In the Perth seat of Moore, Liberal defector Ian Goodenough has fallen behind Labor, Liberal and the Greens, with preferences flowing mainly to Labor candidate Tom French. Right-wing LNP defector Gerard Rennick appears unlikely to win his contest for a Queensland senate seat. In the regional NSW seat of Calare, ex-National MP Andrew Gee appears the only one able to buck the trend, coming second on primary votes and benefiting from a stronger flow of preferences than his National Party opponent.

    New crossbench faces?

    A series of close contests may yet result in extra independent members of parliament. Despite a bitter campaign, community independent Nicolette Boele appears likely to win in the north Sydney seat of Bradfield. In the Victorian seat of Flinders, independent Ben Smith has enjoyed a 5.4% swing toward him, and away from Liberal MP Zoe McKenzie, though preferences have not yet been published in that seat. In Fremantle, where the Australian Electoral Commission is yet to report any preference flows, independent candidate Kate Hulett may still be in with a shot to beat Labor’s Josh Wilson. The competitive result follows an impressive campaign from Hulett at the state election earlier this year.

    After five weeks of vicious debates about the public service and Canberra, voters in the ACT sent clear messages to both major parties. Voices for Bean candidate Jessie Price appears to have taken one of the three ACT electorates from Labor, and independent Senator David Pocock enjoyed an easy victory. Labor received less than a third of the primary vote in that Senate race, and barely one in seven ACT residents voted Liberal.

    Not burning down the house

    Despite that qualification, Labor’s victory is historic by several measures. It is one of only four occasions over the past 30 years where its primary vote actually grew at a federal election. It looks to have won a lower house majority comparable with that of the Howard government’s final term, and maybe even with the Coalition’s 2013 victory (when it won 90 seats, more than double the figure it is likely to have won this time). The two-party preferred vote shows Albanese securing the kind of victory that made John Curtin a Labor hero in 1943.

    So what role does that leave for independents in the 48th parliament?

    Returning crossbenchers will regard their impressive primary votes as confirmation their voters want them to keep doing politics differently. The Liberal and National parties, on the other hand, will be consumed for much of the parliamentary term with introspection and institutional reckoning. Given how unhelpful their studied unity over the past term ultimately proved, it may be there’s more infighting within the Coalition during the next parliament.

    Does it matter that the crossbenchers will not hold the balance of power in the lower house? Not necessarily. In the event of a serious policy misstep from the Albanese government during this term, the crossbenchers may prove to be the more influential voices of opposition in the lower house.

    Sometimes a solo voice speaks with powerful volume. In 2001 the rural independent for Calare, Peter Andren, proved to be a singularly powerful voice against the Howard government’s draconian offshore detention program for asylum seekers arriving in Australia by boat. Andren defied the national trends (and the local opinion polls) and was returned with an increased primary vote, and again in 2004. When he died, some said his opposition to the Howard government showed “more guts and decency” than “all the other Coalition and ALP candidates combined”.

    Several of the current independents have earned themselves a national profile and are trusted advocates on issues such as public integrity and accountability, climate and energy policy and even foreign and security affairs. There will certainly be few MPs left on the opposition benches who can speak with compelling authority on some of these issues. In the face of an emboldened Labor government, their opposition to contentious legislation may sometimes have outsized influence.

    In pragmatic political terms, it is arguably in the Labor Party’s interests to negotiate, and to be seen to negotiate, with the crossbench. The independents in formerly safe Liberal seats are some of the biggest obstacles in any future Liberal pathway back into office.

    Newly-elected Labor MPs may also depend on preferences from community independent candidates next time they go to the polls. The Menzies government owed part of its longevity in the late 1950s and 1960s to its ability to win the preferences of the Democratic Labor Party, an anti-communist breakaway party from Labor.

    Independents are nothing like the DLP, and many run open tickets instead of strictly recommending preferences on their how to vote cards. But in some seats, including the leader of the opposition’s seat of Dickson, independent and Greens voters’ preferences will have proven crucial for Labor’s success.

    ‘Every day is minority government in the Senate’

    The other crucial reason independents still have a role to play is the Senate. Pocock recently remarked that “every day is minority government in the Senate”. Albanese’s victory, no matter how impressive, does not extend to a majority in the red chamber.

    The last time a party won a majority in the Senate was in 2004. Before that, it was 1977. No matter how large a lower-house majority, negotiation and compromise are simply unavoidable for laws to get passed in the federal parliament.

    The Greens will continue to exercise their crucial balance of power role in the Senate. So too will Pocock and, assuming she is re-elected as the sixth senator for Tasmania, Jacqui Lambie. During the 47th parliament, Pocock and Lambie often proved decisive in shaping, amending and sometimes postponing legislation they felt needed improvement.

    Both will bring a range of priorities to the 48th parliament. They may also collaborate more routinely with lower house crossbench colleagues to make those critical votes in the senate count for everything that they are worth. That would be a good thing. After all, both chambers really do matter in our parliamentary system.

    Joshua Black is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow at The Australia Institute.

    – ref. Independents will not help form government – but they will be vital in holding it to account – https://theconversation.com/independents-will-not-help-form-government-but-they-will-be-vital-in-holding-it-to-account-255517

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: State of the states: 6 experts on how the election unfolded across the country

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Clune, Honorary Associate, Government and International Relations, University of Sydney

    While counting continues nationally, the federal election result is definitive: a pro-Labor landslide and an opposition leader voted out.

    But beyond the headline results, how did Australians in the key seats in each state vote, and how did it shape the outcome?

    Here, six experts break down what happened in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria and Western Australia.

    New South Wales

    Swing to Labor: 3.4%

    David Clune, honorary associate, government and international relations, University of Sydney

    The election results showed, in NSW as with the rest of Australia, a stronger than predicted swing to the government, returning it with a solid majority.

    Not only did Labor hold all its NSW marginals, many with increased margins, but it appears to have gained from the Liberals the seats of Banks and Hughes in suburban Sydney. Labor’s Jerome Laxale has retained Bennelong which was notionally Liberal after the redistribution.

    The Liberals appear likely to lose Bradfield to Teal Nicolette Boele and former National Andrew Gee seems likely to retain Calare in the central west as an independent.

    The three sitting Teals were all easily re-elected and right wing independent Dai Le held Fowler.

    At the time of writing, Labor has won 28 seats in NSW to the Coalition’s 12, a gain of three, with four independents so far and the probability of two more.

    The ALP two-party preferred vote in NSW was 54.8%, a swing towards it of 3.4%.

    Labor’s primary vote was 35.0% to the Coalition’s 31.8%, a swing against the latter of 4.7%.

    Albanese staged a Houdini-like escape from what seemed to be, in 2024, a steady decline in his prospects. Although only an average campaigner in 2022, he ran an almost flawless campaign three years later. The prime minister had a consistent, resonant message about Labor’s record, appealing policies for the future, and projected an image of stability in government.

    Given the bite of the cost of living, particularly in Western Sydney, the government should have been vulnerable. Instead, Albanese transformed this into a strength by persuading voters he was best placed to deal with the crisis.

    Queensland

    Swing to Labor: 3.9%

    Paul Williams, associate professor of politics and journalism, Griffith University

    I long argued Queensland would be inconsequential as to who would win the keys to The Lodge at this election.

    I was partly right. If Labor, as projected, wins 93 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, the six Queensland Labor appears to have seized from the Liberal-National Party (LNP) are but a small fraction of the government’s national haul. Even with no Labor gains in Queensland, Albanese could still have governed with a comfortable majority.

    But I was also partly wrong. The fact there were primary swings of up to five percentage points away from the LNP across Queensland (even in very safe seats like Maranoa), and the fact Labor appears to have captured two seats (Brisbane and Griffith) from the Greens, suggests the state has behaved very differently from expectations and, for the first time in more than a decade, become one of real consequence.

    Labor now looks to hold 13 of the state’s 30 seats, the LNP 15, the Greens one, and Bob Katter returned in Kennedy for the KAP. Few would be surprised that Pauline Hanson’s One Nation (PHON) and Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots failed to win any House seats, although PHON’s Malcolm Roberts is likely to be returned to the Senate.

    Nor is it unexpected that Dickson, held by the LNP by a tiny 1.7% margin, should have been in play this election. But that fact Dickson was lost by an opposition leader – the first such occurrence at federal level – is astonishing.

    So, too, are the LNP losses in the outer-suburban “battler” seats of Forde and Petrie (held by the LNP since 2010 and 2013 respectively) that embraced former Liberal PM Scott Morrison, even when he was at his nadir.

    The additional reality of an LNP losing such contrasting seats as Leichhardt in far north Queensland and Bonner in middle Brisbane suburbia now points to a deep existential crisis for conservatives even in their Queensland heartland.

    In the Northern Territory, Labor’s Marion Scrymgour has retained the seat of Lingiari and strengthened her position, with a 6.6% swing in her favour.

    So, what happened? How did Queensland, like the rest of Australia, defy electoral gravity? Was it that angry Queenslanders, stinging from a cost-of-living crisis, had already vented their wrath on a state Labor government six months ago? Or did the state finally warm to an Albanese it now concluded was a more competent economic manager? Or did Queensland, like every other state, reject a hard-right Peter Dutton – offering little in meaningful policy amid a ramshackle campaign – as out of touch with a moderate, centrist Australia?

    After defeats at local and state elections in 2024, Labor is back in Queensland.

    South Australia

    Swing to Labor: 5.1%

    Rob Manwaring, associate professor of politics and public policy, Flinders University

    On first glance, South Australia did not seem to be at the centre of the Albanese government’s landslide win. Of the ten electoral seats in the state, only one changed hands – the seat of Sturt which Labor’s Claire Clutterham won from the Liberals’ James Stevens. Yet, this was a massive win for Labor, with a 57–43 two-party preferred vote.

    This is a seismic result and exemplifies all of the Coalition’s electoral problems. Sturt was a classic Liberal blue ribbon seat which the Liberals had held since 1972. The Teal candidate in Sturt, Dr Verity Cooper, might well be disappointed not to have scored a higher primary vote than her 7.2%.

    Elsewhere, Labor handsomely improved its position in the hitherto marginal seat of Boothby. A 8% swing to Louise Miller-Frost saw the Liberals’ Nicolle Flint easily routed.

    To confirm the Liberal misery in the state, the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie consolidated her place in Mayo. The scale of Labor’s performance also brought into scrutiny the Liberal regional seat of Grey, where long-standing member Rowan Ramsay retired. The Liberals will retain it despite a swing against them.

    Overall, this is now a solidly Labor state, and the party holds a remarkable seven of the ten seats. Those with long memories, will know seats like Kingston and Adelaide, traditionally bellweather, are now solidly safe Labor seats.

    The Liberals’ loss of Sturt confirms the party now has only two seats in the state, and no representation at all in the major cities around the country. It might well be a long road back for the centre-right.

    Tasmania

    Swing to Labor: 8.1%

    Robert Hortle, deputy director of the Tasmanian Policy Exchange, University of Tasmania

    If the Liberal Party’s ranks were thinned out on the mainland, in Tasmania they have been clear-felled. The state elected four Labor candidates out of five, and notably, all women.

    In Braddon, Labor’s Anne Urquhart overturned the 8.3% margin enjoyed by retiring Liberal MP Gavin Pearce. It looks like the swing to Labor will be around 15%, with Urquhart’s pro-salmon farming and pro-jobs position resonating in the traditionally conservative electorate.

    A swing of around 10% to Labor in Bass was more than enough for first-time candidate Jess Teesdale to defeat Liberal MP Bridget Archer. Labor’s messaging that “a vote for Archer is a vote for Dutton” successfully neutralised Archer’s personal popularity in the electorate and reputation for standing up to her party.

    Lyons was Tasmania’s most marginal seat after the 2022 election. That’s no longer the case, with Rebeca White, former state Labor leader, securing a swing of around 10%. White’s popularity as a state MP transferred smoothly to the federal level – Labor’s primary vote in the seat looks to have jumped by more than 14%.

    So why was the swing to Labor in these Tasmanian seats so much greater than on the mainland? Astute candidate selection played a role – in particular, White and Urquhart were well-known in their communities.

    It is also possible the ongoing travails of the state Liberal government played a part. Northern Tasmanians are strongly opposed to the controversial AFL stadium in Hobart, and the ongoing Spirit of Tasmania ferry fiasco has involved prominent mismanagement of port upgrades in Devonport in the state’s north-west. State politics isn’t usually considered to have a big impact on federal elections, but these issues may have been high profile – and long running – enough to make a difference.

    The southern seat of Franklin was a focal point for a lot of drama during the campaign. In the end, Julie Collins, Tasmania’s only cabinet minister, received a bit of a scare. She slightly increased her primary vote, but the ABC currently projects her overall margin will be cut in half. Anti-salmon farming independent Peter George achieved the second highest primary vote, but wasn’t close enough to Collins for preferences to get him over the line.

    As expected, independent Andrew Wilkie won the Hobart seat of Clark for a sixth time, with a margin of just over 20%. He increased his primary vote, but it looks like Labor will shave a tiny amount off his margin.

    Victoria

    Swing to Labor: 1.8%

    Zareh Ghazarian, senior lecturer in politics, school of social sciences, Monash University

    The Liberal Party’s fortunes in Victoria went from bad in 2022 to much worse in 2025.

    The ALP’s primary vote increased by about 1% while the Liberal Party’s primary vote fell by about 2.5%. While the percentages are smaller than in other states, this performance had a significant affect on the representation of the parties in Victoria.

    The Liberal Party lost Deakin in the eastern suburbs of Melbourne. Held by Michael Sukkar since 2013, the seat has been marginal for several elections. The primary vote swing against the Liberal Party was 4.2%. In a two-party preferred outcome, Deakin now appears to be a relatively safe seat for Labor.

    The Liberal Party primary vote also went backwards in Kooyong which was held by independent Monique Ryan. High profile Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer could not reclaim the seat which had previously been held by then-Treasurer Josh Frydenberg.

    Goldstein, the other inner metropolitan seat won by an independent at the last election, looks to be a closer contest with the Liberal Party’s Tim Wilson experiencing a rise in the primary vote but it may not be enough to defeat incumbent Zoe Daniel.

    Compounding the problems for the Liberal Party was that it could not make any inroads in other key seats across the eastern suburbs in Melbourne. This was where the party needed to win seats if it was to be competitive in forming government. In Aston, the seat the party lost at a byelection in 2023, the Liberal Party’s primary vote fell by 5%. The party’s primary vote also went back in Chisholm and McEwen.

    In short, this was a disastrous result for the Liberal Party in the state of Victoria.

    Western Australia

    Swing to Labor: 1.2%

    Narelle Miragliotta, associate professor in politics, Murdoch University

    WA didn’t disappoint for Labor. Although the two-party swing was more muted than in other parts of the country, it came off the back of a more much stronger electoral position entering this contest. On a two-party preferred basis, Labor gained 56.2% of the vote.

    Labor has retained the nine lower house seats it won in 2022, and it has also managed to make decent, even if not spectacular, gains in the party’s share of the primary vote in Tangney (+4.9%), Hasluck (+5.93), Swan (+3.5%), and Perth (+4.7%).

    One of the unexpected wins for Labor was the former Liberal held seat of Moore. Labor won the seat on the back of +0.9% increase in the party’s primary vote. Assisting Labor’s electoral fortunes was a former Liberal incumbent who ran as an independent, and whose vote accounts for much of the -10.4% swing against the Liberal candidate.

    But it wasn’t all good news for Labor, going backwards on primary votes in Fremantle (-4.48%) Brand (-5.96%) and Pearce (-0.01%).

    The Liberals’ performance affirms just how much trouble the party in the West. The Liberals recorded a swing of -5.66% in their primary vote, winning only 28.5% of the first preference vote.

    In addition to the loss of Moore, the party failed to win back the once-prized seat of Curtin, despite a heavy investment of resources into the contest. The Liberals also have a fight to retain the seat of Forrest, where is registered a -13.4% swing in its primary vote. The Liberals are, however, expected to win it.

    There were very few bright spots for the Liberals. The Liberals did achieve an increase in their two-party preferred vote in O’Connor (+6.3%) and Canning (+3.8%). And at last check, the Liberals are still in the hunt for the new seat of Bullwinkel.

    In the senate, the swing against the Liberals on primary votes was even more pronounced (-7.36%) although the party are on track to elect two senators. The Greens senate primary vote held up, enjoying a very slight increase (+0.74%) and comfortably returning a senator. Although recording a -0.04% swing, Labor has two senators confirmed and the possibility of the election of a third.

    Paul Williams is a research associate with the T.J. Ryan Foundation.

    David Clune, Narelle Miragliotta, Rob Manwaring, Robert Hortle, and Zareh Ghazarian do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. State of the states: 6 experts on how the election unfolded across the country – https://theconversation.com/state-of-the-states-6-experts-on-how-the-election-unfolded-across-the-country-255508

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor makes Senate gains, and left-wing parties will hold a Senate majority

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    On Saturday, Labor won a thumping victory in the House of Representatives, and this has carried over to the Senate results.

    Only 35% of enrolled voters have been counted in the Senate so far, compared with 71% in the House. It’s likely that the current Senate count is biased to Labor, so Labor is likely to drop back in some states as more votes are counted.

    There are 76 senators, who have six-year terms, with about half up for election at every House election. Each state has 12 senators, with six up for election, and the territories have two senators each, who are all up for election.

    Senators are elected by proportional representation with preferences. A quota in a state is one-seventh of the vote, or 14.3%. In the territories, it’s one-third or 33.3%. I had a Senate preview on April 16.

    Comments on each state are below. I disagree with the ABC’s view that Labor is “likely” to win a third New South Wales seat. Putting this seat into the doubtful column reduces Labor to an overall 27 senators with the Greens on 11, so the two main left-wing parties would hold a minimum 38 of the 76 seats in the new Senate.

    This would represent a two-seat gain for Labor (one in Queensland, one in South Australia). Labor has reasonable chances to gain further Senate seats.

    If Labor and the Greens combined hold the minimum 38 seats after the election, Labor will only need one more vote to pass legislation supported by the Greens but opposed by right-wing parties. Independent David Pocock, former Green Lidia Thorpe and former Labor senator Fatima Payman will be good options.

    In NSW, Labor has 2.6 quotas, the Coalition 1.9, the Greens 0.9 and One Nation 0.4. Labor would win three seats on current primaries, but the Senate swing to them is much greater than in the House, so they will drop back.

    In Victoria, Labor has 2.4 quotas, the Coalition 1.9, the Greens 1.0, One Nation 0.3 and Legalise Cannabis 0.3. Labor is likely to drop back, with the final seat likely a three-way contest between Labor, One Nation and Legalise Cannabis.

    In Queensland, Labor has 2.1 quotas, the Liberal National Party 1.8, the Greens 0.9, One Nation 0.5 and former LNP senator Gerard Rennick 0.35. One Nation is the favourite to win the sixth seat.

    In Western Australia, Labor has 2.4 quotas, the Liberals 1.7, the Greens 1.1, One Nation 0.4, Legalise Cannabis 0.3 and the Nationals 0.3. Labor would be the favourite to win the sixth seat on current counting, as the Liberals would absorb right-wing preferences that would otherwise help One Nation.

    In SA, Labor has 2.6 quotas, the Liberals 1.8, the Greens 1.0 and One Nation 0.4. Labor won the House vote in SA by 58.4–41.6, so the Senate result looks plausible. Labor and the Greens are likely to win four of SA’s six Senate seats.

    In Tasmania, Labor has 2.4 quotas, the Liberals 1.5, the Greens 1.2, Jacqui Lambie 0.5, One Nation 0.4 and Legalise Cannabis 0.3. It’s difficult to determine which parties are the favourites to win the last two seats.

    In the ACT (two senators), Pocock has been easily re-elected with 1.3 quotas, and Labor will win the second seat. In the Northern Territory, Labor and the Country Liberals will win one seat each.

    Doubtful House seats, and the Greens’ and teals’ performance

    There are many seats where the electoral commission selected the incorrect final two candidates on election night and now needs to redo this count. Labor could lose Bean, Fremantle or Calwell to independents. Labor could also lose Bullwinkel or Bendigo to the Coalition.

    The Greens have lost Brisbane and Griffith to Labor. They lost Brisbane after falling to third behind Labor and the LNP and Griffith because the LNP fell to third and their preferences will help Labor. Labor is narrowly ahead against the Greens in Wills.

    In Greens leader Adam Bandt’s Melbourne, there was a substantial primary vote swing to Labor and against Bandt, and the electoral commission needs to redo the preference count between Bandt and Labor.

    Teal independents in Kooyong, Goldstein and Curtin are likely to retain their seats, but they didn’t gain substantial swings that usually occur when an independent elected at the last election recontests. It’s possible they’ve become too associated with the left in their seats. Fortunately for them, the left won a thumping victory at this election.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor makes Senate gains, and left-wing parties will hold a Senate majority – https://theconversation.com/labor-makes-senate-gains-and-left-wing-parties-will-hold-a-senate-majority-255848

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Albanese increases majority and Dutton loses seat in stunning election landslide

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The Albanese government has been re-elected with a substantially increased majority, and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has lost his seat, in a crushing defeat of the Coalition.

    As of late Saturday night, there was a two-party swing to Labor of about 3.4%, with two-party vote of 55.5%-44.5%

    It was sitting on about 86 seats (up from 78), and in the hunt for more. The Coalition, which went into the election with 57 seats, has won 41, and may pick up one or two more.

    The Labor primary vote was 34.7%, up 2.1%; the Coalition primary vote was 31.1%, down 4.6%.

    Among the Liberal losses is frontbencher Michael Sukkar in his Victorian seat of Deakin. Shadow foreign minister David Coleman is likely to lose his Sydney seat of Banks. Outspoken Liberal backbencher Bridget Archer has lost her Tasmanian seat of Bass.

    It was all over by 8.30PM, as it became increasingly clear a big swing to Labor was underway.

    A trumphant and emotional Anthony Albanese told a jubilant Labor crowd: “Australians have chosen a majority Labor government”.

    “Today the Australian people have voted for Australian values. For fairness, aspiration and opportunity for all. For the strength to show courage in adversity and kindness to those in need.

    “And Australians have voted for a future that holds true to these values, a future built on everything that brings us together as Australians and everything that sets our nation apart from the world.

    “Australians have chosen to face global challenges the Australian way, looking after each other while building for the future.

    “I make this solemn pledge. We will not forget that we will never take it for granted, repaying your trust will drive a government each and every day of the next three years.”

    Albanese, who has used a Medicare card as a prop through the campaign, produced it once again. “We will be a government that helps every Australian who relies on Medicare.”

    According to the ABC, seats changing hands from the Liberals to Labor are Banks and Hughes in NSW; Forde, Bonner, Dickson, Petrie, Leichhardt in Queensland; Deakin in Victoria; Braddon and Bass in Tasmania; Sturt in South Australia, and Moore in Western Australia.

    It was a bad night for the Greens. They are likely to lose two of their three Queensland seats, Griffith, held by high profile MP Max Chandler-Mather, and Brisbane held by Stephen Bates.

    The Greens’ expected losses occurred despite roughly holding its primary vote, which is 12.5%, up 0.2%. Their leader Adam Bandt is in trouble in his seat of Melbourne.

    Dutton said in his concession speech he had called Albanese and congratulated him. “I said to the prime minister that his mum would be incredibly proud of his achievement tonight, and he should be very proud of what he’s achieved.”

    Dutton said he had also spoken to Ali France, the Labor candidate who has beaten him in Dickson. “She lost her son Henry, which is a tragic circumstance that no parent should ever go through. And equally I said to Ali that her son Henry would be incredibly proud of her tonight and that she’ll do a good Local member for Dixon.”

    He expressed his sorrow for the Liberal MPs and candidates who had lost.

    All the teals have held their seats. The teal candidate in Bradfield, Nicolette Boele, is ahead of her Liberal opponent. The teal Jessie Price is also ahead in the ACT Labor seat of Bean.

    Queensland LNP Senator James McGrath said it was a brutal night for Peter Dutton and the Coalition. “We have got to make sure we take stock of why we lost this election and have a serious review into those reasons.”

    As the Liberals prepare to review their disastrous loss and choose a new leader, their Senate leader Michaelia Cash is backing fellow West Australian Andrew Hastie. “I think Andrew Hastie is an outstanding member … I’m a very good friend of his. Andrew’s always been seen as leadership material.”

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Albanese increases majority and Dutton loses seat in stunning election landslide – https://theconversation.com/albanese-increases-majority-and-dutton-loses-seat-in-stunning-election-landslide-255616

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –