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Category: Features

  • MIL-Evening Report: Albanese’s government might not thrill, but it has shown unity and competence – and that’s no mean feat

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Frank Bongiorno, Professor of History, ANU College of Arts and Social Sciences, Australian National University

    The Coalition’s election campaign of 2025 has a strong claim to be considered among the worst since federation. I know of none more shambolic. Barely a day passed without some new misstep or about-face, some embarrassing revelation about a candidate, some new policy condemned by experts as half-baked, uncosted or worse. Three years of waiting for Labor and Anthony Albanese to fall over instead of doing serious policy work came home to roost, and the chicken concerned was very ugly.

    The campaign more generally was nothing to write home about. From the preoccupations of the major players, if you didn’t already know, you’d hardly have guessed that the wider world was in the midst of its greatest convulsions since the second world war, as the United States retreated from its longstanding global role into protectionism and isolationism, abandoning and bullying old friends and allies, helping rivals and enemies, upending international trade, and dismantling democracy and the rule of law.

    The government assured voters it had everything in hand, adopting a small-target re-election strategy, to pair with its similar 2022 approach. Albanese invariably looked solid and prime ministerial. There was no fumbling the figures on the level of unemployment or the Reserve Bank cash rate this time.

    Like the Coalition, Labor threw itself enthusiastically into a spendathon. It did not take major policy reform into the campaign. We live in the shadow of the two elections that saw parties with policy ambition suffer humiliating defeat: the Coalition in 1993 and Labor in 2019. That made the Coalition’s policy of building nuclear power plants foolhardy rather than brave.

    Trump’s shadow followed Peter Dutton everywhere, making a small-target strategy unviable for the Coalition. On Trump, Dutton sometimes sounded a bit like Saint Peter thrice denying he knew Jesus Christ, but he reverted to type as the campaign wore on by playing up favoured culture war topics of the moment, such as winding back Indigenous Welcomes to Country.

    But the Liberals’ biggest mistake – the one on which all others would be built – occurred three years ago, on May 30 2022.

    Dutton, unopposed as the Liberal Party’s new leader, told his first press conference that his policies would be aimed at the “forgotten people” of the suburbs. It was a pitch so hackneyed as to be barely worth attention. But it was also a strange thing to say given the reality of the situation his party then faced – and still faces today.

    Hackneyed, because Dutton’s promise recalled the Liberal Party’s talismanic foundational document, Robert Menzies’ “The Forgotten People”, broadcast 80 years before to the very month. But strange because the Coalition had been in office for nine years. If there were indeed “forgotten people” in the nation’s suburbs, the Coalition had surely enjoyed ample opportunity to remember them.

    It was strange for another reason, too: the Liberal Party had just been devastated by the loss of its traditional urban heartland, Menzies’ old seat of Kooyong among the casualties. The residents of these electorates – most of them not far from city centres – may well have felt “forgotten”, but not in the sense Dutton imagined. They felt their values and interests were not reflected in the modern Liberal Party.

    It is worth revisiting what Dutton said on that occasion, because it seems to have guided his whole pitch as opposition leader ever since:

    I’m not giving up on any seat, but I do want to send a very clear message to those in the suburbs, particularly those in seats where there has been a swing against the Labor Party on their primary vote, in many parts of the country.

    The emphasis here was not really on winning back teal seats. They received just a grudging nod of acknowledgement. For Dutton, it was all about going out into the suburbs and winning seats held by Labor. And true to form, teal seats received very little of his campaign attention during the 2025 campaign.

    This was a foolish strategy of avoidance for which Dutton and the Liberal Party have now paid a heavy price. The Coalition’s journey took it into support for nuclear power, blaming housing shortages on immigration, and opposing a First Nations Voice to Parliament – the latter an issue the Coalition even desperately sought to revive against Labor during the campaign.

    The Voice referendum nurtured the illusion that the six in ten “no” voters were ripe for Coalition picking. Wiser heads might have noticed Labor continued to rule for eight years after the Hawke government was humiliated at a 1988 referendum, and Menzies was prime minister for 15 years following his Communist Party referendum defeat.

    Wiser heads might also have noticed that the Coalition’s only path back to power demanded it address its losses in the more affluent metropolitan seats won by Independents, Labor and the Greens. Short of huge and unlikely advances in the outer suburbs and regional cities and towns, the Liberals need to win metropolitan seats with high proportions of well-off, well-educated, socially progressive and younger voters to be competitive for majority government.

    Still, that was a hard ask in three years. It nonetheless left a chance of minority Coalition government, which many pundits believed a distinct possibility for much of 2024 and early 2025.

    But where were the Coalition’s votes on the floor of the House going to come from, if not from teal and teal-like independents? The Greens? Hardly. It would have made a great deal of sense to pitch policies that might help to win over community independents and their supporters.

    Instead, the Coalition alienated them, such as by joining with Labor to produce an ineffectual National Anti-Corruption Commission and new electoral finance laws opposed by the teals.

    The Liberals and Nationals made little effort to attract women voters – indeed, policies such as opposing working from home alienated them – and they wandered off on their nuclear frolic. Dutton flirted with Trumpish policies on reducing immigration and public service cuts, before retreating on the latter but in such a confused manner as to leave voters without a clue what his intentions actually were.



    Read more:
    When ‘equal’ does not mean ‘the same’: Liberals still do not understand their women problem

    And as the Liberals’ election campaign unravelled, its friends in the right-wing media continued to campaign relentlessly against the teals. There was no method to this madness, unless it was shoring up the Coalition against possible depredations on its dwindling voting base from parties further to the right.

    It is not that Labor was invincible. Its majority was the narrowest of any first-term government since 1913. It was under pressure in normally friendly Victoria. It lost momentum through the Voice referendum. Interest rates intensified mortgage stress. People complained they could afford a visit to neither the supermarket nor the doctor’s surgery. There was growing unease about immigration levels, and continuing frustration at the lack of housing.

    The contest for government, however, is still largely a two-horse race and each of the major party leaders is the main bearer of their side’s colours. Dutton and the Liberals failed to do the hard yakka on policy, ideology, image or strategy.

    Dutton himself continued to worry many voters as a risky proposition or worse. The few weeks of the election campaign itself seemed more consequential than most in living memory because it so amply demonstrated his lack of fitness for prime ministerial leadership.

    For Labor, the Rudd and Gillard years remain the central reference in modern political history, formative of their understanding of what not to do in government if you want to be treated respectfully by voters.

    In contrast, in the past three years, Labor established an image of unity and competence. We should not underestimate this achievement. It amounted to a significant rebuilding of the Labor brand.

    “You campaign in poetry, you govern in prose,” New York governor Mario Cuomo was fond of saying. Labor has defied him: it campaigns and governs in prose.

    But perhaps that’s what those fabled punters want: not a Trump-inspired disruptor, nor a radical visionary, but the kind of bloke you’d trust with your tax return.

    The times ahead will call for more.

    Frank Bongiorno does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Albanese’s government might not thrill, but it has shown unity and competence – and that’s no mean feat – https://theconversation.com/albaneses-government-might-not-thrill-but-it-has-shown-unity-and-competence-and-thats-no-mean-feat-254570

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor wins with a superior campaign and weak opposition – now it’s time to make the second term really matter

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Wallace, Professor, School of Politics Economics & Society, Faculty of Business Government & Law, University of Canberra

    Superior campaigning by the Labor machine, a lift in the personal performance of Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, and a woeful campaign by Opposition Leader Peter Dutton have seen Labor re-elected for a second term.

    Albanese will go down as one of the luckiest Labor leaders in Australian political history. He faced two deeply unpopular and somewhat odd Coalition leaders – Scott Morrison in 2022 and Dutton in 2025 – and edged out both to first win, and now retain, power. Dutton even lost his seat.

    Albanese was lucky, too, that the distress and dysfunction evident in the United States in the first 100 days of the Trump administration made voters reluctant to risk a version of that under the Trumpesque Dutton in Australia.

    His luck was compounded by the Liberal team’s shocking underperformance, along with that of Dutton personally. Policy reversals, ineffective advertising and an overall lack of focus blighted their campaign from the outset.

    In contrast, Labor National Secretary Paul Erickson and key party figures combined to ensure the government got the jump on the Coalition before the election was imminent. This included getting Albanese onto the hustings early in the new year, making policy announcements that demonstrated a commitment to build Australia’s future.

    Albanese himself shook off the torpor evident since the failed Voice referendum campaign and presented a more energetic and congenial face to Australians than the awkward and floundering Dutton.

    For the first time in many elections, Labor produced memorable, cut-through advertising with its “He cuts. You pay.” ad, designed to persuade voters they would be worse off under the Coalition.

    The swing to Labor was a big turnaround in the fortunes of a party that only months ago looked at risk of struggling to achieve even minority government. As in last month’s Canadian election, the long shadow of Donald Trump helped secure victory for an incumbent government against a Trumpesque opposition.

    Dutton flip-flopped under pressure between masking his usual right-wing approach and reverting to type with hardline positions of limited appeal to swinging voters. The more Australians saw of him during the campaign, the worse his net approval rating became.

    The Coalition’s election postmortem is likely to hinge on the mystery of why, given the scores of interest rate rises since the previous election and misery experienced by so many Australians as a result, it did not simply hammer the cost of living as its return ticket to power.

    It should also dwell on the lesson that a leader and policies that please local oligarchs and right-wing media echo chambers make winning the centre ground needed for election victory in Australia hard.

    That one-third of Australians gave an independent or minor party candidate their first preference vote should be the focus of serious contemplation by the major parties, even by Labor in victory.

    The crossbench will remain sizeable in the 150-member House of Representatives, though without the balance of power eagerly sought by the teal and orange independents. The Senate will continue to be a challenge for the government to get its bills through.

    One clear message is that voters aren’t impressed by the leaders the major parties are offering.

    Albanese campaigned well, and got better as the election went on. However, like Dutton, he remained in net negative approval territory. In the final Newspoll of the campaign, published on election day, Albanese and Dutton had –10% and –27% net approval ratings, respectively. Both leaders were a drag on their party’s vote.

    Labor’s low primary, but emphatic two party-preferred vote signals Australians want it in office but expect more than tinkering around the edges. The Albanese government will be expected to come up with structural solutions that meet contemporary Australians’ real needs in this second term.

    With his re-election as prime minister, Albanese can be confident and secure in his governing style, giving talented frontbenchers more scope to develop the deeper policy solutions Australians seek.

    That increased security will also enable him to drop the petty persecution of rivals that gives voters an insight into the lesser side of the sunny personality he publicly presents.

    Whether he does either of those things will remain to be seen.

    Labor MPs will also have to play their role properly in this term of government.

    Slavish quiescence to an all-powerful prime minister produces paltry results. Caucus needs to get elbows up with the re-elected Albanese and make sure he doesn’t clock off between elections like he appeared to at times last time around.

    Chris Wallace has received funding from the Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Labor wins with a superior campaign and weak opposition – now it’s time to make the second term really matter – https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-with-a-superior-campaign-and-weak-opposition-now-its-time-to-make-the-second-term-really-matter-255516

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Dutton and the Coalition did not do the work, and misread the Australian mood

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Kenny, Professor, Australian Studies Institute, Australian National University

    The former federal director of the Liberal Party, Brian Loughnane, used to tell media companies that their practice of commissioning expensive opinion polls right through a parliamentary term was a waste of money.

    Election 2025 seemed to vindicate his charge. For example, polls conducted within sight of the election – since about February this year – returned markedly different results from those that had been breathlessly reported through 2024.

    A rigorous strategist, Loughnane had reasoned that the central polling task of establishing “who you would vote for were an election held this Saturday” prompts a meaningful answer only when an election is actually about to occur. Midway through a term, voters simply see the question as a hypothetical exercise limited to assessing the incumbent government’s performance.

    Come the campaign, though, considerations shift to stereo. Inexorably, voters’ attention expands to include the would-be government: the opposition. What are its solutions? Is it really ready for office? And perhaps most crucially, who is its leader, this person insisting on becoming prime minister?

    This electoral reckoning – a turning point from the abstract to the applied – is where Peter Dutton’s three-year strategy started to come unstitched.

    The conservative Queenslander had risen in the polls through 2024, buoyed by his surprisingly effective dismantling of the Voice in the 2023. He had been lifted further by the Albanese government’s handling the cost-of-living crisis. Dutton’s team was uncommonly unified, his focus laser-like on Labor’s shortcomings.

    As 2025 approached, Dutton looked to be in a strong position, drawing encouragement from the success of populist right-wing parties across the democratic world. These victories suggested Dutton had a winning formula – a pitch consistent with the populist-nationalist zeitgeist.

    The biggest of these international success stories, the barnstorming election of US President Donald Trump in November 2024, lifted right-wing spirits into the stratosphere.

    Trump’s defiant return was a frontal repudiation of liberal elites and their priorities around climate change, procedural governance, feminism and other identity-based politics.

    To Dutton, this new, brash and disruptive electoral mood felt propitious. He faced a uncharismatic opponent, widely perceived as weak, during a cost-of-living crunch. Voters were angry at the government. The opposition leader had the wind at his back. He told his colleagues he would win. Albanese was “weak, woke, and sending you broke”.

    More explicitly, he praised Trump as “shrewd” and a “big thinker”, and when tariffs were placed on Australian imports to the US, Dutton hinted he would have secured exemptions because of his ideological like-mindedness with the president.

    Actions followed.

    Within days of Trump’s headline-grabbing appointment of Elon Musk to lead a department of government efficiency, Dutton followed suit, promoting the Indigenous hero of the anti-Voice campaign, Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa-Price, to his shadow cabinet in charge of government efficiency.

    He would go on to announce a consciously Trumpian-sounding plan to slash Australia’s public service jobs by 41,000, and another policy to end work-from-home arrangements. The latter proved so disastrous he was forced into an embarrassing backdown on it.

    Fuelling his growing ebullience, Dutton unwisely favoured soft-ball interviews with conservative backers on Sky News and talkback radio. Where orthodox media interviews might have sharpened his communication skills and also alerted him to holes or excesses in his suite of policies, Dutton received pats on the back and encouragement to go harder.

    This meant he came away even more convinced that the times were suiting him, and that the prize of unseating a first-term government for the first time since the Great Depression was within reach.

    By the time the pace lifted and the scrutiny intensified as the election campaign neared, the weaknesses in Dutton’s campaign were structural and impossible to hide.

    Trump had trashed the global trading system. He insulted America’s closest and most dutiful friends, Australia included.

    Polls showed that Australians saw Trump as a threat. Dutton had backed the wrong horse.

    A preoccupation with attacking the Albanese government rather than undertaking the detailed policy development work needed for government – replete with potentially difficult internal disputes both within the Liberal Party and within the Coalition – had left Dutton with a thin offering to voters.

    And an unwillingness to brook these searching introspections also left Dutton with an overly compliant and unimpressive frontbench.

    In policy terms, this thinness led to election commitments that had not been adequately stress-tested. Some would draw fire and be abandoned while others would be announced and then de-emphasised, effectively back-officed for the campaign.

    On personnel, most shadow ministers were kept out of the national campaign spotlight. This was either because they were consumed with their own electoral survival, were considered by Dutton’s office to be incompetent, or simply because there was insufficient policy meat to defend within their allotted area of responsibility.

    This meant an ever-greater “presidential” focus on Dutton, even as he became a net drag on the Coalition vote. The Liberal Party’s polling must have identified his low standing, yet still the campaign remained unusually focused around him as leader. A stark measure of how crazy-brave this was came on election night when Dutton lost his seat (Dickson). Albanese had made a point of going straight to Dickson as his first move on day one of the campaign, and returned there at the end.

    When policy promises were announced, they tended to be late in the campaign, swamped by other events, or lost in public holiday periods (Easter and Anzac Day).

    The late-to-very-late release of policy fuelled criticism that Team Dutton was not confident of its own programs and wanted to attract as little attention as possible.

    Thus a major $21 billion increase in defence spending came with scant detail in the penultimate week, sandwiched between public holidays and after early voting had already begun. It attracted little sustained attention.

    An otherwise attention-grabbing proposal to legalise the sale of vaping products outside of pharmacies to better regulate its harm and derive billions in revenue, lobbed on Thursday afternoon of the final week. Millions of Australians had already voted. It suggested even Dutton was sheepish about its virtues.

    While a public service work-from-home ban was abandoned mid-campaign amid a backlash, public service job cuts, a policy that initially had been regarded as a positive was softened to apply only to Canberra, to exempt front-line service jobs, and to be achieved only through attrition rather than sackings. Its cost savings were thrown into doubt.

    It became such a liability that even the Liberals’ ACT Senate candidate campaigned against it, putting him in the invidious position of effectively saying, “vote Liberal to give Canberrans better protection from the Liberals”.

    Dutton’s formal campaign was untidy and inept, but it was led by a man intent on bending the electorate to his will rather than building a broader constituency for his party’s worldview.

    In the end, the campaign asked to do too much after a wasted three years in which hard policy development was shirked, and tough decisions to strengthen an underperforming frontbench were avoided.

    Mark Kenny does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Dutton and the Coalition did not do the work, and misread the Australian mood – https://theconversation.com/dutton-and-the-coalition-did-not-do-the-work-and-misread-the-australian-mood-255515

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor routs the Coalition as voters reject Dutton’s undercooked offering

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    In a dramatic parallel, what happened in Canada at the beginning of this week has now been replicated in Australia at the end of the week.

    An opposition that a few months ago had looked just possibly on track to dislodge the government, or at least run it close, has bombed spectacularly. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has lost his Queensland seat of Dickson, as did the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in Canada.

    Far from being forced into minority government, as most observers had been expecting, Labor has increased its majority, with a substantial swing towards it.

    Its strong victory reflects not just the the voters’ judgement that the Coalition was not ready to govern. It was worse than that. People just didn’t rate the Coalition or its offerings.

    Multiple factors played into this debacle for the Coalition.

    A first-term government historically gets a chance of a second term.

    The Trump factor overshadowed this election. It made people feel it was best to stick with the status quo. People also were very suspicious of Dutton, whom they saw (despite disclaimers) as being too like the hardline US president.

    After the last election, Dutton was declared by many to be unelectable, and that proved absolutely to be the case, despite what turned out to be a misleading impression when the polls were so bad for Labor.

    Even if they’d had a very good campaign, the Coalition would probably not have had a serious chance of winning this election.

    But its campaign was woeful. The nuclear policy was a drag and a distraction. Holding back policy until late was a bad call. When the policies came, they were often thin and badly prepared. The ambitious defence policy had no detail. The gas reservation scheme had belated modelling.

    The forced backflip on working from home, and the late decision to offer a tax offset, were other examples of disaster in the campaign.

    Dutton must wear the main share of the blame. He kept strategy and tactics close to his chest.

    But the performance of the opposition frontbench, with a few exceptions, has been woeful. Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor and finance spokeswoman Jane Hume have been no match for their Labor counterparts Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Labor ran a very disciplined campaign. Albanese himself performed much better than he did in 2022.

    Labor was helped by an interest rate cut in February and the prospect of another to come later this month.

    Albanese transformed himself, or was transformed, from last year to this year.

    The cost of living presented a huge hurdle for Labor, but the government was able to point to relief it had given on energy bills, tax and much else. The Coalition had opposed several of Labor’s measures and was left trying to play catch-up at the end.

    The Liberal Party now has an enormous task to rebuild. The “target the suburbs” strategy has failed. At the same time, the old inner-city Liberal heartland is deeply teal territory.

    Hume said, in an unfortunately colourful comment, on Friday, “You do not read the entrails until you have gutted the chicken”.

    The chicken has now been gutted. There will be a much more bitter post mortem than in 2022. The leadership choices are less than optimal for the party: Angus Taylor? Andrew Hastie? Sussan Ley?

    An interesting thought: if Josh Frydenberg had held his seat in 2022, and led the Liberal party to this election, would be result have been better? One thing is clear: Frydenberg took the right decision in not recontesting Kooyong, which teal Monique Ryan has held.

    Anyway, who would want to lead the Liberals at this moment?

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor routs the Coalition as voters reject Dutton’s undercooked offering – https://theconversation.com/labor-routs-the-coalition-as-voters-reject-duttons-undercooked-offering-255617

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor wins surprise landslide, returned with a thumping majority

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    With 52% of enrolled voters counted, The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 92 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, the Coalition in 43, the Greens in two, independents in 11 and others in two. In called seats, Labor is on 76 (already a majority), the Coalition 32, independents six and others two.

    Labor has gained ten seats and the Coalition has lost ten, including Peter Dutton’s Dickson to Labor. It’s amazing that Labor has held the Victorian seat of Aston, which they had gained from the Coalition during Labor’s honeymoon period.

    The Poll Bludger gives Labor a projected national two-party preferred vote of 54.5–45.5, a 2.4% swing to Labor since the 2022 election. Current primary votes are 34.7% Labor (up 2.3%), 30.5% Coalition (down 3.9%), 12.8% Greens (up 0.3%), 6.2% One Nation (up 1.3%), 2.0% Trumpet of Patriots (new), 8.1% independents (up 4.5%) and 5.8% others (up 0.6%).

    I believe this election result was mostly because Dutton became too close to One Nation and Donald Trump for the Australian people to tolerate. Dutton would have done better to have stuck to the cost-of-living issue and avoided culture wars.

    With the addition of the YouGov poll below, Albanese finished the campaign at a net -4.2 using an average of five polls in the final week that asked for leaders’ ratings. Dutton finished at -20.8.

    The Canadian election on Monday and now Australia’s election demonstrate the left’s ability to win elections. Many thought Trump’s election would herald an era of right-wing dominance, but both Canada’s Conservatives and Australia’s Coalition lost what had looked like wins two months ago. Both leaders also lost their seats.

    Before the 2022 Australian election, I wrote that Australia and Canada could be strong for the left owing to big cities that make up a large share of the population in both countries. The right’s gains in the last decade have been biggest in regional areas.

    The polls understated Labor at this election, with none of the ten polls by different pollsters conducted in the final week putting Labor’s two party share above 53%. The Morgan poll that was conducted April 14–20 gave Labor a 55.5–44.5 lead, but Morgan’s final two polls retreated back to a 53–47 Labor lead.

    The Ipsos poll below that gave Labor just a 51–49 lead and the Freshwater poll that gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead were particularly poor. I will give a full assessment of the polling when the results are nearly complete.

    This is the poll graph I’ve been publishing with the provisional Labor two-party win by 54.5–45.5 marked.

    More final polls

    The polls below were not released in time for Friday night’s final poll wrap.

    The final national YouGov non-MRP poll, conducted April 24 to May 1 from a sample of 3,000, gave Labor a 52.2–47.8 lead, a 1.3-point gain for the Coalition since the April 17–22 YouGov poll.

    Primary votes were 31.4% Coalition (up 0.4), 31.1% Labor (down 2.4), 14.6% Greens (up 0.6), 8.5% One Nation (down two), 2.5% Trumpet of Patriots (up 0.5), 6.7% independents (up 1.7) and 5.2% others (up 1.2). By 2022 election flows, Labor would lead by 54.2–45.8.

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval was up one point to -6, with 49% dissatisfied and 43% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval slumped six points to a record low in YouGov of -24. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by 51–34 (50–35 previously).

    A national Ipsos poll for The Daily Mail was released Friday without fieldwork dates provided, but the sample was 2,574. Labor led by 51–49 from primary votes of 33% Coalition, 28% Labor, 12% Greens, 8% One Nation, 2% Trumpet of Patriots, 12% for all Others and 5% undecided.

    Ipsos has conducted Australian polling before, but this was its only voting intentions poll this term. Its previous two polls for The Daily Mail had only asked about the leaders’ ratings.

    The final wave of the tracking poll of 20 marginal seats by Redbridge and Accent Research for the News Corp tabloids gave Labor a 53–47 lead across these seats, a 1.5-point gain for the Coalition since the previous week.

    Primary votes were 34% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down two), 12% Greens (down two), 6% One Nation (down one) and 15% for all Others (up five). These seats voted for Labor by 51–49 at the 2022 election, so this poll has a 2% swing to Labor across these seats.

    Labor won nationally in 2022 by 52.1–47.9, so this poll implies about a 54–46 Labor national margin.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor wins surprise landslide, returned with a thumping majority – https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-surprise-landslide-returned-with-a-thumping-majority-255518

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor wins election in landslide: full results

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Digital Storytelling Team, The Conversation

    The Conversation, CC BY-SA

    Digital Storytelling Team does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor wins election in landslide: full results – https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-election-in-landslide-full-results-251905

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Super antibodies’ for snake toxins: how a dangerous DIY experiment helped scientists make a new antivenom

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina N. Zdenek, Associate Researcher, The University of Queensland

    Scientists in the United States have created a new snake antivenom using the blood of a man who deliberately built up immunity to snakebites by injecting himself with many different kinds of venom more than 800 times over 18 years.

    The researchers showed “super antibodies” from the man’s blood prevented toxic damage from neurotoxins found in the venoms of 19 different snake species, including mambas and cobras.

    The new study may represent a welcome advance in antivenom production. Most current techniques are more than a century old and involve injecting venom into horses and other animals, then harvesting antibodies from their blood.

    Even so, new treatments are only part of the challenge of addressing the huge global problem of snakebites, which kill and maim hundreds of thousands of people around the world each year.

    How was this new antivenom made?

    Tim Friede describes himself as an “autodidact herpetologist and venom expert”. He deliberately immunised himself with increasing doses of a number of snake venoms over an 18-year period, in a risky practice known as “mithridatism” that we don’t recommend. Some issues include: Friede nearly died several times, and immunity can drop in weeks.

    Scientists took a small sample of Friede’s blood and isolated the antibodies his immune system had developed to counteract the venoms. Next, they determined which of the antibodies were broadly effective against two important types of neurotoxins found in the venoms of elapid snakes, a family of species including cobras, mambas, and taipans.

    The next step was to sequence the DNA from Friede’s b-cells (a type of immune cell) that produced those two antibodies, then insert the genes responsible into a kind of virus called a bacteriophage. Then, using the modified bacteriophage and human cells as mini factories, the researchers produced lots of the antibodies to use in their work.

    How is antivenom usually made?

    Antivenom is currently the only specific treatment available for snakebites. It is usually produced by first collecting venom (which is dangerous), then “hyper-immunising” a domesticated animal (such as a horse) by routinely injecting it with small but increasing doses of that venom.

    Christina Zdenek and Chris Hay extracting venom from a coastal taipan (Oxyuranus scutellatus).
    Russell Shakespeare

    The horse’s blood is extracted and its antibodies purified. The antibodies can then be injected into a snakebite victim, where they stick to toxins. This prevents the toxins from binding to targets in the body, and it also flags them for elimination by the immune system.

    Traditional antivenoms have their problems. They can cause a severe allergic response known as an anaphylactic reaction (up to 50% of the time, in some countries). They may also have limited effectiveness due to differences in venom composition in snakes from different regions, or at different stages of the snake’s life.

    Broad-spectrum or “polyvalent” antivenoms are made by injecting horses with mixtures of venom from different species or different populations of snakes. However, the elevated antibody content per dose can increase the risk of adverse reactions.

    Another challenge with mixed antivenoms is that some toxins that produce a strong immune response can suppress the production of antibodies against other equally dangerous toxins.

    Why has it taken so long to improve antivenom production?

    Antivenom production is not presently a very profitable business. The expenses are huge, there is limited economy of scale, the effectiveness of antivenoms can be geographically specific, and the products have a short shelf-life and may have strict refrigeration requirements.

    Snakebite is also a disease of poverty. The people most affected are those least able to afford treatment.

    In Australia, the government has been supporting onshore antivenom production since 2020.

    Christina Zdenek retrieves snake venoms from a freezer for antivenom tests in the lab.
    Russell Shakespeare

    How else can we treat snakebite?

    In the past decade, more precise, ethical, and potentially cost-effective methods of producing snakebite therapeutics have emerged. These include monoclonal antibodies produced in the lab, as well as more conventional drugs.

    For example, varespladib is one drug that has progressed to phase II clinical trials. It works extremely well against a major component found in many snake venoms worldwide.

    Hybrid products containing “designer antibodies” and inhibitors like varespladib may be the future of snakebite treatment.

    The new “universal elapid antivenom” is in many ways an improvement on traditional antivenoms. However, there are still several deadly toxins present in elapid snake venoms it does not address, such as the coagulotoxin (blood-attacking) prothrombinase found in the venom of eastern brown snakes and taipans.

    Why do we need antivenom?

    Many people around the world live with the daily threat of being bitten by a venomous snake. Farmers, graziers, children walking barefoot to school, and many rural and remote workers in tropical and subtropical region, are at risk.

    The World Health Organisation deems snakebite a neglected tropical disease. It kills one person roughly every four minutes. As many as 2.7 million people are bitten annually, resulting in up to 138,000 deaths and around 400,000 people permanently maimed.

    An eastern brown snake (Pseudonaja textilis) passes through a suburban backyard in eastern Australia.
    Chris Hay

    Will this new medicine reduce snakebite deaths?

    When it comes to reducing the number of people who die from snakebite, novel snakebite treatments are undoubtedly important. However, developing new drugs is the relatively easy part of the problem.

    A drug is only as good as your capacity to deliver it when and where it’s needed. For snakebites, time is short and locations may be remote.

    Several antivenoms available in Australia.
    Christina N. Zdenek

    Far more attention and resources need to be devoted to all aspects of health infrastructure in the tropics, including the availability and distribution of life-saving medicines.

    Prevention is also critical. Reducing the number of snakebites will reduce the burden on health infrastructure by saving lives and limbs.

    To achieve this, we need far more resources devoted to research on snake behaviour, snake ecology, human–snake interactions, and public education about snakes. Snakebite is the result of an ecological encounter between two organisms, and we know disappointingly little about the circumstances in which it occurs.

    Christina N. Zdenek co-owns and works for the Australian Reptile Academy, a Queensland-based company that provides venomous-snake identification and handling courses for industry and the public.

    Timothy N.W. Jackson is co-head of the Australian Venom Research Unit, which has previously received funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council, Department of Health, and Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade.

    – ref. ‘Super antibodies’ for snake toxins: how a dangerous DIY experiment helped scientists make a new antivenom – https://theconversation.com/super-antibodies-for-snake-toxins-how-a-dangerous-diy-experiment-helped-scientists-make-a-new-antivenom-255611

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Final polls give Labor a clear lead before the election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    With those who haven’t already cast a pre-poll vote ready to hit the polling places tomorrow, a final batch of polls give Labor a firm lead.

    The final Newspoll gave Labor a 52.5–47.5 lead, a Freshwater poll gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead, a DemosAU poll gave Labor a 52–48 lead and a Morgan poll gave Labor a 53–47 lead. Vote counting at the election is also covered.

    The final Newspoll, conducted Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1,270, gave Labor a 52.5–47.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the April 21–24 Newspoll. Primary votes were 34% Coalition (down one), 33% Labor (down one), 13% Greens (up two), 8% One Nation (steady) and 12% for all Others (steady).

    Applying 2022 election preference flows to these primary votes would give Labor about a 53–47 lead. Newspoll is giving the Coalition a greater share of One Nation preferences than in 2022.

    Here is the final poll graph. Labor is clearly ahead and will win Saturday’s election unless polls are overstating them by as much as they did in the 2019 election.

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll was down one point to -10, with 52% dissatisfied and 42% satisfied. Peter Dutton’s net approval slumped a further four points to a new record low of -28. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 51–35.

    Since the early March Newspoll (the last one before the election campaign began), Dutton has lost 14 points on net approval, while Albanese has gained two points.

    Here is the graph of Albanese’s net approval in Newspoll this term. The plus signs are the Newspoll data points and a trend line has been fitted.

    A simple average of the four polls this week that have asked for leaders’ ratings (Newspoll, Freshwater, Essential and Resolve) has Albanese at net -3.8 approval and Dutton at net -20.

    By 57–43, voters thought they would be better off in the next three years under an Albanese Labor government than a Dutton Coalition government.

    Labor takes 51.5–48.5 lead in final Freshwater poll

    A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a sample of 2,055 (double the normal sample size), gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead by respondent preferences, a 1.3-point gain for Labor since the April 14–16 Freshwater poll.

    Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down two), 33% Labor (up one), 12% Greens (steady) and 18% for all Others (up one). One Nation were broken out for the first time and had 8%. By 2022 election flows, Labor would lead by about 51–49.

    Freshwater has been the most pro-Coalition of regular Australian pollsters, and its last poll had a near tie when other polls had Labor well ahead.

    Albanese’s net approval was up seven points to -3, with 44% unfavourable and 41% favourable. Dutton’s net approval was down five points to -16. Albanese led Dutton as preferred PM by 49–39 (46–41 previously).

    Labor gained a point on cost of living and economic management to reduce the Coalition’s lead to one point and five points on these issues respectively.

    The Coalition led by 55–45 with the 42% who had already voted (25% early and 17% by postal ballot). Labor led by 52–41 with those yet to vote with 7% undecided.

    Two DemosAU final week polls

    The two national DemosAU polls listed here were taken over a concurrent fieldwork period. The previous DemosAU poll, conducted April 22–23, had given Labor a 52–48 lead from primary votes of 31% Coalition, 29% Labor, 14% Greens, 9% One Nation, 7% independents and 10% others.

    A national DemosAU poll
    , conducted April 27–30 from a large sample of 4,100, gave Labor a 52–48 lead, from primary votes of 33% Coalition, 31% Labor, 12% Greens, 9% One Nation, 2% Trumpet of Patriots, 7% independents and 6% others. State and other breakdowns are provided in the report.

    Albanese led Dutton by 46–34 as preferred PM. Party breakdowns of this question had Albanese leading by 71–10 with Greens voters, 57–20 with independent voters and 36–27 with other voters. Dutton only led by 43–21 with One Nation voters and 37–30 with Trumpet of Patriots voters. These breakdowns don’t imply a Coalition surge on preference flows.

    A second national DemosAU poll for The Gazette, conducted April 27–29 from a sample of 1,974, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, Primary votes were 32% Coalition, 29% Labor, 12% Greens, 9% One Nation, 7% independents and 11% others.

    Labor retains 53–47 lead in final Morgan poll

    The final national Morgan poll, conducted Monday to Friday from a sample of 1,368, gave Labor a 53–47 lead, unchanged from the April 21–27 Morgan poll.

    Primary votes were 34.5% Coalition (steady), 33% Labor (down one), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5), 6.5% One Nation (down one), 2% Trumpet of Patriots (up 0.5), 3% teal independents (up one) and 7.5% for all Others (steady). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by an unchanged 54–46.

    More from the Spectre poll

    I’ve received the full Spectre poll that I wrote about on Thursday. Labor’s net favourability was net zero, the Liberals were at net -2, Albanese was net -6, Dutton was net -13, Pauline Hanson was net -8 and Greens leader Adam Bandt was net -12.

    The most unpopular people in this poll were US President Donald Trump at net -47 and Elon Musk at net -45.

    Vote counting for the election

    Polls close at 6pm AEST Saturday in the eastern states, which have 122 of the 150 House of Representatives seats. Polls close at 6:30pm AEST in South Australia and the Northern Territory (12 combined seats), and in Western Australia at 8pm AEST (16 seats).

    By 8pm AEST, I expect the large majority of votes cast on election day to be counted in the eastern states. But pre-poll votes and returned postal votes already account for 40% of enrolled voters, and the biggest day of pre-polling (Friday) is still to be added.

    In many seats, we will need to wait until the pre-poll votes are counted before a result can be called. It’s unlikely the election will be called until a large proportion of the pre-poll votes have been counted. This is likely to take until late at night AEST.

    Not all seats will be called on election night. In some seats, the electoral commission will have selected the incorrect candidates for its final two candidate count, and will need to re-do this count with the correct candidates.

    Other seats will be close between the final two, and we will need to wait for late postals and absent votes to decide the winner. If postmarked by election day, postals have up to May 16 to arrive (13 days after the election).

    I wrote about the Senate election on April 16. It will usually be clear on election night who has won the top four or five seats out of six in a state. But to resolve the final seats, all votes need to be data entered into a computer system, then a button is pressed to electronically distribute preferences. This is likely to take about four weeks after the election.

    UK byelection and local elections

    I covered Thursday’s United Kingdom parliamentary byelection and local government elections for The Poll Bludger. The far-right Reform gained the safe Labour Runcorn and Helsby seat, winning by just six votes. They are making massive gains from both the Conservatives and Labour in the local elections.

    In final results from Monday’s Canadian election, the centre-left Liberals won 169 of the 343 seats, three short of the 172 needed for a majority. The Conservatives won 144 seats, the separatist left-wing Quebec Bloc (BQ) 22, the left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) seven and the Greens one. Vote shares were 43.7% Liberals, 41.3% Conservatives, 6.3% BQ, 6.3% NDP and 1.3% Greens.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Final polls give Labor a clear lead before the election – https://theconversation.com/final-polls-give-labor-a-clear-lead-before-the-election-255724

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Culture wars and costings: election special podcast with Michelle Grattan and Amanda Dunn

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    As we roll into the dying hours of the election campaign, the polls are suggesting a Labor win, although it is not yet clear if it will be in minority or majority. Chief Political Correspondent Michelle Grattan and Politics Editor Amanda Dunn discuss why the Coalition has focussed on culture wars issues this week, plus the parties’ policies finally costed after millions of Australians have already voted.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Culture wars and costings: election special podcast with Michelle Grattan and Amanda Dunn – https://theconversation.com/culture-wars-and-costings-election-special-podcast-with-michelle-grattan-and-amanda-dunn-255774

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The MMR vaccine doesn’t contain ‘aborted fetus debris’, as RFK Jr has claimed. Here’s the science

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the United States’ top public health official, recently claimed some religious groups avoid the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine because it contains “aborted fetus debris” and “DNA particles”.

    The US is facing its worst measles outbreaks in years with nearly 900 cases across the country and active outbreaks in several states.

    At the same time, Kennedy, secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, continues to erode trust in vaccines.

    So what can we make of his latest claims?

    There’s no fetal debris in the MMR vaccine

    Kennedy said “aborted fetus debris” in MMR vaccines is the reason many religious people refuse vaccination. He referred specifically to the Mennonites in Texas, a deeply religious community, who have been among the hardest hit by the current measles outbreaks.

    Many vaccines work by using a small amount of an attenuated (weakened) form of a virus, or in the case of the MMR vaccine, attenuated forms of the viruses that cause measles, mumps and rubella. This gives the immune system a safe opportunity to learn how to recognise and respond to these viruses.

    As a result, if a person is later exposed to the actual infection, their immune system can react swiftly and effectively, preventing serious illness.

    Kennedy’s claim about fetal debris specifically refers to the rubella component of the MMR vaccine. The rubella virus is generally grown in a human cell line known as WI-38, which was originally derived from lung tissue of a single elective abortion in the 1960s. This cell line has been used for decades, and no new fetal tissue has been used since.

    Certain vaccines for other diseases, such as chickenpox, hepatitis A and rabies, have also been made by growing the viruses in fetal cells.

    These cells are used not because of their origin, but because they provide a stable, safe and reliable environment for growing the attenuated virus. They serve only as a growth medium for the virus and they are not part of the final product.

    You might think of the cells as virus-producing factories. Once the virus is grown, it’s extracted and purified as part of a rigorous process to meet strict safety and quality standards. What remains in the final vaccine is the virus itself and stabilising agents, but not human cells, nor fetal tissue.

    So claims about “fetal debris” in the vaccine are false.

    It’s also worth noting the world’s major religions permit the use of vaccines developed from cells originally derived from fetal tissue when there are no alternative products available.

    Are there fragments of DNA in the MMR vaccine?

    Kennedy claimed the Mennonites’ reluctance to vaccinate stems from “religious objections” to what he described as “a lot of aborted fetus debris and DNA particles” in the MMR vaccine.

    The latter claim, about the vaccine containing DNA particles, is technically true. Trace amounts of DNA fragments from the human cell lines used to produce the rubella component of the MMR vaccine may remain even after purification.

    However, with this claim, there’s an implication these fragments pose a health risk. This is false.

    Any DNA that may be present in this vaccine exists in extremely small amounts, is highly fragmented and degraded, and is biologically inert – that is, it cannot cause harm.

    Even if, hypothetically, intact DNA were present in the vaccine (which it’s not), it would not have the capacity to cause harm. One common (but unfounded) concern is that foreign DNA could integrate with a person’s own DNA, and alter their genome.

    Introducing DNA into human cells in a way that leads to integration is very difficult. Even when scientists are deliberately trying to do this, for example, in gene therapy, it requires precise tools, special viral delivery systems and controlled conditions.

    It’s also important to remember our bodies are exposed to foreign DNA constantly, through food, bacteria and even our own microbiome. Our immune system routinely digests and disposes of this material without incorporating it into our genome.

    This question has been extensively studied over decades. Multiple health authorities, including Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration, have addressed the misinformation regarding perceived harm from residual DNA in vaccines.

    Ultimately, the idea that fragmented DNA in a vaccine could cause genetic harm is false.

    The bottom line

    Despite what Kennedy would have you believe, there’s no fetal debris in the MMR vaccine, and the trace amounts of DNA fragments that may remain pose no health risk.

    What the evidence does show, however, is that vaccines like the MMR vaccine offer excellent protection against deadly and preventable diseases, and have saved millions of lives around the world.

    Hassan Vally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The MMR vaccine doesn’t contain ‘aborted fetus debris’, as RFK Jr has claimed. Here’s the science – https://theconversation.com/the-mmr-vaccine-doesnt-contain-aborted-fetus-debris-as-rfk-jr-has-claimed-heres-the-science-255718

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Fake news and the election campaign – how worried should voters be?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrea Carson, 2024 Oxford University visiting research fellow RIJS; Professor of Political Communication., La Trobe University

    shutterstock JRdes/Shutterstock

    The spread of electoral misinformation and disinformation is undermining democracies around the world.

    The World Economic Forum has identified the proliferation of false content as the leading short-term global risk in 2025 for a second consecutive year. Misleading information poses a bigger threat to global GDP, population and natural resources than even climate change or armed conflict.

    Here in Australia, is the federal election facing the same threat from misinformation and disinformation? And how concerned should we be?

    Fake information is real

    Our latest study on public trust shows Australians are encountering electoral misinformation and are worried about it.

    We surveyed more than 7,000 people during March and April when the election campaign was heating up. At least two-thirds of respondents said they had already encountered false or misleading election information.

    Whether deliberate (disinformation) or unintentional (misinformation), we found Australians were exposed to different types of election falsehoods involving:

    • issues and candidates

    • election procedures

    • election integrity, such as alleged rigged outcomes and unsupported attacks on the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC).

    Consistent with other Australian and international misinformation studies, people are clearly anxious about being misled. An overwhelming majority of respondents (94%) viewed political misinformation as a problem; more than half regarded it as a “big” or “very big problem”.

    An array of falsehoods

    Our team, based across four universities, examined the types of electoral misinformation and disinformation Australians reported seeing. Almost two-thirds, 63.1%, encountered falsehoods about issues or candidates, such as misleading claims about parties’ policy proposals.

    Thirty-nine percent reported misinformation/disinformation about voting procedures, such as when and how to vote. A similar share, 38.4%, identified fake content about election integrity, including false claims that elections are rigged or that the Australian Electoral Commission is colluding with political parties.

    A significant number of people, 20-30%, were also unsure whether they had encountered misleading content. This uncertainty is concerning in itself. Being unable to judge the accuracy of information can undermine the formation of informed opinion.

    It also aligns with other research showing many Australians feel they have limited ability to verify information online.

    The most prominent examples of misinformation/disinformation related to major election issues, such as:

    • Medicare
    • nuclear energy
    • housing
    • cost of living
    • climate

    The most common names that people associated with misleading information were:

    • Donald Trump
    • Clive Palmer
    • Labor Party
    • Liberal Party
    • Facebook

    Deeper analysis is needed to understand the context of these self-reported claims of misinformation and disinformation during the campaign. However, we do know that those exposed to false content identified it in both mainstream daily news and social media sources.

    Should we be alarmed?

    Research across the fields of psychology, communication and political science shows exposure is not the same as impact. Yet, misinformation and disinformation can influence attitudes and behaviour among vulnerable groups.

    Our own work on the 2023 Voice referendum showed disinformation targeting the Australian Electoral Commission had a small but noticeable effect on public trust, even though trust remained high overall.

    In another global study, we found online disinformation can distort perceptions of election fairness.

    These findings underscore the need to counter falsehoods. Electoral authorities and political leaders must work to protect democratic trust and prevent the kind of election denialism that led to the January 6 Capitol insurrection in the United States.

    Of course, people might not always accurately judge how much misinformation or disinformation they’ve seen. This is a common challenge in studies like ours. But even if their perceptions don’t match reality, simply feeling exposed to false or misleading information is linked to greater political cynicism.

    Fighting falsehoods

    Encouragingly, most Australians recognise the problem and want action. In our survey, 89% said it’s important to know how to spot it, while 83% agreed the practice makes it harder for others to separate fact from fiction. But only 69% felt false information affected them personally.

    Many feel especially vulnerable about false claims about candidates and election issues (see Figure 1). Such falsehoods are currently unregulated at the federal level in Australia. But the AEC ranks among the world’s most innovative electoral authorities in countering disinformation, even without “truth in advertising” laws.

    In another, yet unpublished study, we found the AEC is a global role model with its multi-pronged strategy to counter misleading information. Its tools include a public disinformation register, media partnerships, and the “Stop and Consider” campaign, which provides clear, accurate information to help voters think critically before sharing content.

    Our own study revealed other encouraging signs. Individuals who are more satisfied with Australian democracy perceive disinformation as less of an existential threat than those who are already dissatisfied. This suggests a positive attitude towards democracy helps protect democratic institutions.

    This provides a strong rationale for non-profits such as the Susan McKinnon Foundation to promote the value of democratic governance. The Scanlon Foundation, is also making an important contribution with its recent Voices of Australia podcast series, “Truth, Trust and Politics”.

    Whoever wins the election, our study shows one thing is clear – fighting electoral misinformation and disinformation is in everyone’s democratic interest.

    Andrea Carson receives funding from the Australian Research Council for this project led by AJ Brown at Griffith University: DP230101777 — Mapping & Harnessing Public Mistrust: Constitutional Values Survey 2023-27.

    Max Grömping receives funding from the Australian Research Council for this project led by AJ Brown at Griffith University: DP230101777 — Mapping & Harnessing Public Mistrust: Constitutional Values Survey 2023-27.

    – ref. Fake news and the election campaign – how worried should voters be? – https://theconversation.com/fake-news-and-the-election-campaign-how-worried-should-voters-be-255514

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What is iNaturalist? The citizen science app playing an unlikely role in Erin Patterson’s mushroom murder trial

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitlyn Forster, Associate Lecturer, School of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Sydney

    Death cap mushrooms (_Amanita phalloides_) Jolanda Aalbers/Shutterstock

    The world has been gripped by the case of Australian woman Erin Patterson, who was charged with the murder of three people after allegedly serving them a lunch of beef wellington containing poisonous death cap mushrooms (Amanita phalloides).

    A new element of the sensational story emerged in court this week, when prosecutors reportedly alleged Patterson used iNaturalist to locate and visit places where death cap mushrooms were known to grow.

    So what exactly is iNaturalist? And how is this 17-year-old citizen science project being used to better understand our world?

    More than 240 million observations worldwide

    iNaturalist is an app that allows users to take photos of plants, fungi, animals and any piece of nature. The photos are uploaded, and identified using a combination of crowd-sourcing and artificial intelligence.

    When a user uploads an image, they can also choose to make the location public, so others can see where it was found. iNaturalist’s database holds more than 240 million observations wordlwide. More than 10.6 million of these are in Australia.

    All of this data is extremely important for scientists to understand the ecology of different species. iNaturalist has played a key role in the discovery of new species as well as sightings of species that have previously not been seen for decades.

    iNaturalist might turn out to be an important part of Patterson’s trial, but how else can our observations be used?

    Finding the unusual

    Real people usually collect images for iNaturalist as part of their everyday life, rather than systematically as part of their job. That means there are patterns to the data that is collected.

    Observations tend to be recorded on weekends and in good weather, and to involve life forms people find strange, unusual or interesting.

    For example, at the time of writing, iNaturalist had recorded 1,382 sightings of domestic cats in Australia, compared with 29,660 koalas. But cataloguing the rare and wonderful can be useful.

    When a user uploads an image to iNaturalist, they can also choose to make the location public, so others can see where it was found.
    iNaturalist

    iNaturalist can be used to track invasive species

    One key use of iNaturalist is understanding the native range of plants and animals.

    Australia invests a lot of resources in preventing species from entering the country. But we still see incursions frequently. Observant citizen scientists can be really important for finding species outside their native range. In Australia, if observations of biosecurity threats are made, alerts are automatically sent to biosecurity teams for further investigations.

    In the same vein, species commonly found in the pet trade can be quickly observed and captured to prevent the spread of invasive species.

    iNaturalist can be used to track invasive species.
    ChameleonsEye/Shutterstock

    But how safe are the observations?

    In 2011, iNaturalist added more features to protect geoprivacy – which allows locations of observations to be obscured. Rare and exciting pets, and collectable insects could be found by looking at location data on iNaturalist.

    There is previous evidence this has occurred. Nowadays, species of concern for poaching automatically have their locations obscured, preventing them from being illegally poached or collected. This can also be helpful to prevent people crowding popular endangered animals when they have been sighted.

    Typically, anything listed as endangered will automatically have an obscured location on iNaturalist.

    Observations on iNaturalist can be helpful for forensics

    Observing nature, and taking photos of plants and animals in their native environment, can give us a much better understanding of where they naturally live and grow.

    Aside from being fantastic for conservation reasons, this has potential use for forensic investigation of crimes. The use of insects, animals and plants in forensic cases is well established. For example the Sarcosaprophagous Beetle is used in Australia to help understand the time since death when bodies are found.

    This sort of science is underpinned by an understanding of where insects naturally live, their lifespans and the sort of environments they thrive in, which are all features iNaturalist can help with.

    Should I worry about my location data on iNaturalist?

    Observing nature has huge benefits to understanding our natural world. But these observations do collect a lot of personal data in terms of where and when the observation occurred.

    Although iNaturalist doesn’t sell users’ information, and users can obscure their precise location, the pictures a person shares can still contain enough information to figure out where they are.

    This could be used for forensic intelligence to locate plants and animals of interest, and to place people with them at the time the photo was taken.

    If you’re lucky enough to see a rare or threatened species, consider taking a photo that has little background information that can give away the precise details of the locations, particularly when observing immobile organisms like such as plants and fungi.

    iNaturalist has played a key role in the discovery of new species.
    kodartcha/Shutterstock

    iNaturalist is a fantastic resource for observing nature. More data points to understand where plants, animals, and mushrooms can be found is vital for understanding their ecology, and potentially conserving species.

    It also has huge ramifications for biosecurity, forensics, and even understanding movements that may have occurred during an alleged crime. So it’s really worth getting out in nature and taking photos of interesting things you see!

    Melissa Humphries receives funding from the MRFF, NIH, USDoD and DSTG.

    Caitlyn Forster does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is iNaturalist? The citizen science app playing an unlikely role in Erin Patterson’s mushroom murder trial – https://theconversation.com/what-is-inaturalist-the-citizen-science-app-playing-an-unlikely-role-in-erin-pattersons-mushroom-murder-trial-255714

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Archibald Packing Room Prize goes to Abdul Abdullah for Jason Phu portrait, among broader set of bold and deeply personal works

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Joanna Mendelssohn, Honorary Senior Fellow, School of Culture and Communication. Editor in Chief, Design and Art of Australia Online, The University of Melbourne

    Winner Packing Room Prize 2025, Abdul Abdullah ‘No mountain high enough’, oil on linen, 162.4 x 136.7cm © the artist, image © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Jenni Carter

    More than 50 years ago, when I was a junior curatorial assistant at the Art Gallery of NSW, I had the daunting experience of hanging the annual Archibald, Wynne and Sulman prizes.

    At the time the professional staff held the exhibitions in such disregard, they complained about the news media’s interest in this mediocrity while ignoring more worthy events.

    Attitudes changed in the 1980s with the late director Edmund Capon, who recognised popularity was an asset – not a disadvantage.

    Capon raised the prize money with sponsorships and started charging the public to see the winners. His strategy proved so successful that the Archibald, Wynne and Sulman exhibitions are now a significant source of revenue for the gallery.

    This year, the highly experienced Beatrice Gralton, Senior Curator of Contemporary Australian Art, has curated the exhibitions with support from a crew of more than 40 colleagues.

    Packing Room Prize goes to Abdul Abdullah

    In the 1970s, the media was refused access to the exhibitions until just before the winner was announced. Now it is actively courted with a public viewing of the works that survive the rigorous culling process.

    This takes place a week before the final judging, when the Packing Room Prize is announced. The changing status of this prize is also evidenced by changing personnel. Those who did the physical work of packing and loading artworks in the past were not expected to know much about art – and often gave the prize to paintings that would otherwise not be hung.

    In 2025, the specialist installation crew that handles the portraits in the packing room are most likely to be professional artists themselves – a reminder that most artists need another gig to stay afloat.

    This year’s Packing Room Prize winner is Abdul Abdullah’s portrait of fellow artist Jason Phu, No mountain high enough. There is a glorious irony in this, as Abdullah has long been a critic of the self-important art establishment.

    Winner Packing Room Prize 2025, Abdul Abdullah ‘No mountain high enough’, oil on linen, 162.4 x 136.7cm © the artist, image © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Jenni Carter.

    His work is a riff on the heroic paintings of 19th century landscapes, except for the flock of twittering birds that surround the head of the solitary rider, a bit like a halo.

    His subject, fellow artist Phu, has to be seen as a serious contender for the main prize, which will be announced on May 9. Phu’s portrait of actor Hugo Weaving – older hugo from the future fighting hugo from right now in a swamp and all the frogs and insects and fish and flowers now look on – has both the humour and energy that has long characterised his work.

    Archibald Prize 2025 finalist, Jason Phu ‘older hugo from the future fighting hugo from right now in a swamp and all the frogs and insects and fish and flowers now look on’, synthetic polymer paint on canvas, 183.2 x 152.5cm © the artist, image © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Jenni Carter.

    But there are many serious contenders for this year’s prize. Kurdish refugee Mostafa Azimitabar first exhibited in the Archibald in 2022, with a self-portrait painted in coffee, with a toothbrush. Art became his refuge during the many years he spent incarcerated as an asylum seeker.

    He still uses a toothbrush, but has used paint for his wonderfully fierce painting of a taut Grace Tame, appropriately named The definition of hope.

    Archibald Prize 2025 finalist, Mostafa Azimitabar ‘The definition of hope’, oil on linen, 198.5 x 137.3cm © the artist, image © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Jenni Carter.

    Then there’s Kaylene Whiskey’s delightful self-portrait From comic to canvas, which manages to include images of her heroines, Dolly Parton and Tina Turner.

    Archibald Prize 2025 finalist, Kaylene Whiskey ‘From comic to canvas’, synthetic polymer paint and book pages on plywood, 79.8 x 114.3cm © the artist, image © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Jenni Carter. Sitter, Kaylene Whiskey.

    Not all works are so strident, however. Lucila Zentner’s Wendy in the gallery, is a subdued portrait of fellow artist Wendy Sharpe, placing her in the context of her art, almost as a decoration.

    Archibald Prize 2025 finalist, Lucila Zentner ‘Wendy in the gallery’, oil on canvas, 60.3 x 50.5cm © the artist, image © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Jenni Carter.

    A suite of diverse storytelling

    As is spelt out in J.F. Archibald’s will, the judges of the Archibald Prize must be the trustees of the gallery, and no one else may interfere in their decision.

    However, for decades after a spectacular court case resulting from the 1943 Archibald, the trustees were so nervous of litigation that the final judging was administered by the NSW electoral office. In a court case in 1944, plaintiffs claimed the trustees’ 1943 decision was a breach of trust as the winning painting wasn’t a portrait. And one trustee claimed he had accidentally voted for the winner, thinking he was voting against it.

    Today, all decisions are made in-house. Court cases have been fought over whether entries were paintings (or not), painted from life (or not), selected by the trustees (or not). In 1990 Sidney Nolan had to withdraw his entry after it was pointed out he could not be described as a “resident in Australasia for 12 months preceding the date of entry”.

    But once the entry conditions are met, the curator has a free hand. This year, Gralton has hung all three exhibitions on the premise they are “about stories and storytelling”.

    There is the joyous extravagance of Meagan Pelham’s Magic Nikki and Charlie fancy pants party … Djaaaaaaaay, the stark analysis of Chris O’Doherty’s Self-portrait with nose tube, and the wildly painterly approach of Loribelle Spirovski’s Finger painting of William Barton.

    Archibald Prize 2025 finalist, Loribelle Spirovski ‘Finger painting of William Barton’, oil on canvas, 182.6 x 137cm © the artist, image © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Jenni Carter.

    In the Sulman prize exhibition – awarded for best subject painting, genre painting or mural project – the once academic modernist Mitch Cairns has gone full conceptual with his stark Narrow cast (studio mural). It looks like something straight out of the 1970s Art & Language movement.

    But my money is on Thom Roberts’ Mrs Picture Book and the three bears, a painting as a book, in three canvases.

    Sulman Prize 2025 finalist, Thom Roberts ‘Mrs Picture Book and the three bears’, triptych: synthetic polymer paint on canvas, 120 x 106.5 x 13cm © the artist, image © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Diana Panuccio.

    The Wynne prize is for both Australian landscapes and sculptures. This year there are many three-dimensional works, ranging from the elaborate Billy Bain to the almost agonised restraint of Heather B. Swann.

    Lucy Culliton’s Cliff Hole, Bottom Bullock, hangs alongside Betty Muffler’s Ngangkaṟi Ngura – healing Country – both paintings of Country.

    Wynne Prize 2025 finalist, Betty Muffler ‘Ngangkaṟi Ngura – healing Country’, synthetic polymer paint on linen, 197.3 x 243.5cm © the artist, image © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Diana Panuccio.

    Then there is Mehwish Iqbal’s beautiful, delicate Zameen muqaddas (sacred earth), a pen and ink contrast of fine botanical drawing and delicate wash, all on handmade paper.

    Wynne Prize 2025 finalist, Mehwish Iqbal ‘Zameen muqaddas (sacred earth)’, watercolour and ink on handmade paper, 18 parts: 30 x 30cm each; 152 x 120cm overall © the artist, image © Art Gallery of New South Wales, Diana Panuccio.

    While artist Elizabeth Pulie has already judged the Sulman prize, the judging for the Archibald and Wynne will be finalised early morning on May 9. This year’s result is anyone’s guess.

    Joanna Mendelssohn has in the past received funding from the ARC.

    – ref. Archibald Packing Room Prize goes to Abdul Abdullah for Jason Phu portrait, among broader set of bold and deeply personal works – https://theconversation.com/archibald-packing-room-prize-goes-to-abdul-abdullah-for-jason-phu-portrait-among-broader-set-of-bold-and-deeply-personal-works-253747

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Scientists surprised to discover mayflies and shrimp making their bodies out of ancient gas

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul McInerney, Senior Research Scientist in Ecosystem Ecology, CSIRO

    The native shrimp _Paratya australiensis_ was among the species found to incorporate carbon from natural gas into their bodies in the Condamine River. Chris Van Wyk/Flickr, CC BY-NC-ND

    What’s the currency for all life on Earth? Carbon. Every living thing needs a source of carbon to grow and reproduce. In the form of organic molecules, carbon contains chemical energy that is transferred between organisms when one eats the other.

    Plants carry out photosynthesis, using energy from sunlight to convert carbon dioxide and water into sugar and oxygen. Animals get carbon by consuming organic matter in their diet – herbivores from plants, carnivores from eating other animals. They use this carbon for energy and to produce the molecules their bodies need, with some carbon dioxide released by breathing.

    But there are other, stranger ways of getting carbon. In our new research, we found something very surprising. River animals were feeding on methane-eating bacteria, which in turn were consuming fossil fuel as food.

    Usually, the carbon used as food by river creatures is new in the sense it has been recently converted from gas (carbon dioxide) to solid carbon through photosynthesising algae or trees along the bank. But in a few rivers, such as the Condamine River in Queensland, there’s another source: ancient natural gas bubbling up from underground, which is eaten by microorganisms. Insects such as mayflies have taken to this methane-based carbon with gusto.

    How does a river usually get its carbon?

    The way photosynthesised carbon moves from a plant to an animal and then another animal can be described as a food web. Food webs show the many different feeding relationships between organisms, and show how species depend on each other for sustenance in an intricate balance.

    In a river food web, carbon usually comes from one of two sources: plants growing and photosynthesising in the river (such as algae), or when organic matter such as leaves are washed in by rain or blown in by wind.

    Rivers that are well connected to their floodplains often get plenty of carbon from leaf litter from trees which dissolves in water or is eaten directly by animals. Algae in rivers provide a high-quality source of carbon for animals because they can contain high concentrations of omega-3 fatty acids essential for growth and reproduction.
    The primary source of carbon for river animals varies depending on prevailing conditions and the individual river.

    The carbon of the Condamine

    Some microorganisms called archaea naturally produce small amounts of methane in oxygen-depleted sediments of rivers.

    But we wanted to look at the Condamine to see whether much larger volumes of methane could be used as food.

    After it forms deep underground, natural gas can slowly escape through cracks in the earth. If a river bed is directly above, this methane-rich gas will seep into the river.

    That’s what happens in Queensland’s Condamine River. The river rises on Mount Superbus, inland from Brisbane, and flows inland until it meets the Darling River.

    In some parts of the river, methane bubbles up constantly through the water column from a natural gas reservoir that formed since the Late Pleistocene.

    In these stretches of river, dissolved methane concentrations are extremely high: up to 350 times greater than trace concentrations upriver, away from the methane seep.

    We wanted to see whether methanotrophic bacteria consuming methane from natural gas were being eaten by river animals, and whether we could trace the carbon signature through the food web.

    To find out, we analysed the carbon in the bodies of river animals such as zooplankton, insects, shrimp, prawns and fish, and compared it to the different sources of carbon that could make up their food.

    The results were clear: animals within reach of the natural gas seeping from underground had a distinct carbon signature showing they were eating food derived from the natural gas. In fact, for insects such as mayflies, methane-based food made up more than half (55%) of their diet.

    Over time, this methane-derived food moved up the food web, showing up in prawns and even fish. Here too, it contributed a significant portion of their carbon.

    Natural gas bubbles up through the water column to the surface of the Condamine in some stretches.
    Gavin Rees, CC BY-NC-ND

    We found this methane–derived carbon moved through multiple levels of the local food web. It made up almost a fifth (19%) of the carbon in shrimp and 28% of the carbon in carnivorous fish.

    For river shrimp and prawns, leaves washed into the river were still important sources of carbon. For mayflies, algae was still an important source of food.

    But our work shows that natural gas seeps can be a major, even dominant, source of energy for the entire food web. This is very surprising. It shows an unexpected connection between Earth’s geology and living creatures in a river.

    Why does this matter?

    Until now, researchers have focused on river and land plants as the main way a river gets its carbon. Our research has uncovered a surprisingly significant way some rivers get their carbon – methane.

    In deep sea research, this pathway is better understood. Methane-eating bacteria can form the basis of entire ecosystems which have sprung up around deep sea hydrothermal vents of hot water.

    But until now, we have overlooked the role methane-eating bacteria can play in rivers. With this knowledge, we can better track the flows of carbon in rivers so we can gauge ecosystem productivity and see how a food web is functioning.

    Paul McInerney receives funding from the Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder.

    – ref. Scientists surprised to discover mayflies and shrimp making their bodies out of ancient gas – https://theconversation.com/scientists-surprised-to-discover-mayflies-and-shrimp-making-their-bodies-out-of-ancient-gas-253334

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Liberals’ women problem may seem intractable, but here’s what they could learn from the Teals

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Phoebe Hayman, PhD Candidate and Casual Academic in Politics, La Trobe University

    The impression of the Liberal Party as out of touch with women persists in this year’s election.

    The party’s “women problem” was brought into sharp focus by the backlash to its now-abandoned policy to stop public servants working from home.

    Then there was a candidate claiming women should be removed from the military, and misogynistic social media posts from a Liberal campaign manager. These recurring issues suggest there are larger problems that have not been dealt with.

    Until the party does so, Liberal claims of broad representation remain in doubt. It also makes the party more vulnerable to independent insurgencies, making its path to majority government unclear.

    My new research shows how a key Liberal weakness became an independent success for “Teal” candidates. The results provide key lessons for the Liberals on how the Teal campaigns that won against them in the previous election recruited women to their movement.



    Read more:
    When ‘equal’ does not mean ‘the same’: Liberals still do not understand their women problem

    An intractable problem

    The Liberal Party has long had a lack of female representation in its ranks.

    Although only 29% of federal Liberal MPs are women, the party has been reluctant to adopt gender quotas.

    It’s instead adopted a gender parity by 2025 target, which will almost certainly not be met. Recent research has shown women still make up only one in three Liberal candidates and are less likely to run in safe seats.

    A review of gender within the Liberal Party in 2020 found women made up 34.8% of Young Liberals and only 23.4% of branch presidents or similar leaders. Despite targets, these numbers have remained sticky.

    Recruiting more women to take up positions throughout the organisation is vital. Without this, parties have a smaller pool of prospective women candidates and are less likely to preselect women.

    My study

    As part of my recently published study, I conducted 55 interviews in 2022 with volunteers, campaigners and candidates to examine how Teal campaigns recruited.

    This study found women’s social and professional networks are vital for recruitment, for everyone from boots-on-the-ground volunteers to candidates.

    Recruiting through personal networks is more effective than other means often used, such as individuals signing themselves up alone. Interviewees gave examples of recruiting their friends and family members into independent campaigns, like the woman who designed the graphics for a campaign because she was an old schoolmate of the candidate.

    People’s social networks are often full of people who are similar to them. Among the independents, the women who volunteered were often skilled professionals, who recruited other professional women.

    This recruitment developed organically through friendships and colleagues. Interviewees gave examples, such as a volunteer who:

    […] invited eight or ten of her own friends, who she knew were pretty well onside, but asked them to bring friends to that gathering, which ended up being 50 or so people.

    Many independent volunteers had also been active in local community organisations. As one interviewee put it:

    it’s women who get things done. It’s always the women who are organising barbecues and whatever needs to be done at school and whatever community organisation there is, whether it’s a community garden or a football club. It always seems to be women who just quietly go about the work.

    There is a long literature exploring who is a “joiner” and why that supports this approach. Women involved in other causes and organisations – political or not – are more likely to participate and be effective.

    Recruiting from civic organisations is not unique to independents. The Liberal Party effectively engaged with the Women’s Leagues in its formative years. Doing so again would likely provide volunteers who are well-known and connected in their communities, enthusiastic and full of expertise the campaigns could draw on.

    Women seeing potential in other women

    As the independent campaigns developed, they required supporters with specialist skills, such as website development. To find these people quickly, campaign leaders recruited trusted friends and professional contacts instead of advertising externally.

    This meant women were recruited directly to the higher levels of the campaign, making up the majority of leaders across the movement.

    In turn, these leaders shaped the candidate-selection processes, searching for “the candidate from central casting”, as one interviewee described Allegra Spender. Most saw a professional woman as the ideal candidate in 2022.

    Women are more likely to believe women candidates are electable, shaping who gets preselected to run as a candidate.

    Within the Liberal Party, women campaigned for more female candidates last year. To succeed in these factional battles, more women must hold leadership positions.

    The continued lack of progress on gender parity suggests the Liberal Party needs to do more to actively engage with the women who are already members of the party and engage with leaders across civic and political organisations that already exist within the community. Members may be their most important resource in achieving parliamentary gender parity.

    However, achieving this means first having women in the room. Independent interviewees viewed parties as masculine and hierarchical organisations.

    Dealing with this perception will be no easy feat, but must be the first step in any attempt to bring women back to the Liberal Party.

    Phoebe Hayman receives funding from an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship.

    – ref. The Liberals’ women problem may seem intractable, but here’s what they could learn from the Teals – https://theconversation.com/the-liberals-women-problem-may-seem-intractable-but-heres-what-they-could-learn-from-the-teals-254058

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: This NZ law aims to give people with criminal convictions a ‘clean slate’. It’s not working

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alexander Plum, Senior Research Fellow, Auckland University of Technology

    Andrey_Popov/Shutterstock

    If you own a business, would you be willing to hire a person who has been convicted for a crime? Give them a chance when a background check shows they have a criminal record?

    The answers matter for both individuals and communities. For people who have paid their debt to society, rejoining it can hinge on getting a second chance without being judged on their past.

    It is not something they can really hide. Employers often conduct criminal background checks as part of the hiring process. People with criminal records face high levels of stigmatisation, making it harder to reenter their communities and make money legally.

    The thorny question of what to do with people with convictions when it comes to employment has been considered by policymakers and justice campaigners around the world.

    In the United States, more than 27 states have introduced “Ban the Box” legislation. While each law is unique, by and large they have eliminated the requirement to provide criminal background information in job applications.

    And a number of countries, including New Zealand, have implemented clean slate initiatives which help conceal criminal records for people who meet certain criteria.

    Our new research looks at whether New Zealand’s clean slate scheme increases the job prospects for eligible people.

    The clean slate reform was introduced as the Criminal Records Act in 2004. People who were previously convicted of minor offences can now have their criminal records automatically concealed if they can maintain a conviction-free record for seven years after their last sentence.

    The regulation excludes people who were involved in a serious offence (such as sexual misconduct) or who received a particularly punitive sentence (such as incarceration or an indefinite disqualification from driving).

    The Criminal Records Act allows eligible people with a conviction to wipe their slate clean seven years after their last sentencing.
    Shutterstock

    Clean slate and the labour market

    Our research started with the Integrated Data Infrastructure (IDI), hosted by Statistics New Zealand (StatsNZ). This is a repository of records provided by different public and private agencies, including court charge data from the Ministry of Justice and tax records from Inland Revenue.

    StatsNZ uses specific characteristics of individuals (such as name and birth date) to identify them across the different datasets. This enables researchers to track the same individual’s data footprint across different administrative records.

    We used court charges data on all men convicted between 1992 and 2003 who had fulfilled the clean slate eligibility criteria. We then linked this pool of people with their Inland Revenue records to measure their employment and earnings.

    To identify the labour market impact of the clean slate policy, we compared the employment and earnings of those who completed their seven-year rehabilitation period (the treatment group) with individuals who become eligible some time later (control group).

    Limited benefits of clean slate scheme

    Our analysis found the clean slate scheme has no relevant impact on the likelihood of eligible individuals finding work. This could result from the length of time required between sentencing and being eligible for a clean slate. Seven years could simply be too long.

    But the clean slate scheme did create at least a 2% increase in eligible workers’ monthly wages and salaries – equivalent to a NZ$100 hike for an individual with an average monthly salary of $5,000.

    The increase in monthly earnings appears to be greater for workers with a stronger commitment to working and for those who remain with one company for longer periods.

    Global patterns

    The labour market effects of concealing past convictions have also been explored in the US. Recent research looked at a policy enacted in Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Bexar County, Texas. Mirroring our own results, the authors do not find any relevant impact on gaining employment.

    Our findings indicate the concealment of past convictions through New Zealand’s clean slate scheme might happen too late to make a huge difference. But there are changes that can be made to improve work outcomes for people who have completed their sentences.

    This could include following the example of countries such as Finland, where access to criminal histories is much more restricted. In Finland, the background check has to be directly relevant to the job requirements. For example, the law allows checks for someone applying to work in the financial sector who was convicted of fraud.

    There would also be benefits from looking at the eligibility criteria for New Zealand’s clean slate scheme.

    Currently, it only applies to people who committed a minor offence. But policymakers should consider whether it makes sense to expand the policy to people who committed more serious crimes but managed to turn their life around. Making this change would allow people to reap the benefits of working without stigma.

    All that said, the government’s current “tough on crime” stance makes change unlikely, with a focus on the cost of crime rather than what happens after punishment has been completed.

    Kabir Dasgupta is affiliated with the Federal Reserve Board. The opinions expressed in this article does not reflect the views of the the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Reserve System.

    Alexander Plum does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. This NZ law aims to give people with criminal convictions a ‘clean slate’. It’s not working – https://theconversation.com/this-nz-law-aims-to-give-people-with-criminal-convictions-a-clean-slate-its-not-working-254687

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Unexpected humour and reflections on a complex past: my top 5 films from the 2025 German Film Festival

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Claudia Sandberg, Senior Lecturer, Technology in Culture and Society, The University of Melbourne

    Foreign audiences often associate German cinema with tragedy, trauma and death. Certainly, major historical events such as the second world war and the Fall of the Berlin Wall — cornerstones of German film — are present in this year’s selection at the 2025 German Film Festival.

    Alongside these themes is a variety of contemporary topics, innovative fictional formats and strong documentary work. The increased presence of women in directing and producing roles also brings female experiences sharply into focus.

    Here are my highlights from this year’s programme.

    Riefenstahl (2024)

    Leni Riefenstahl (1902–2003), Hitler’s favourite filmmaker, has been a subject of controversy for decades – explored in documentaries such as The Wonderful Horrible Life of Leni Riefenstahl (1993).

    Now, with access to new material from Riefenstahls’ private archive, director Andres Veiel and journalist Sandra Maischberger cast a fresh eye over this complex figure.

    Using extensive visual materials, they trace Riefenstahl’s journey from dancer to actress, to filmmaker and photographer – capturing everything from her pioneering cinematic techniques to her entanglement with political power and personal vanity. And they are not afraid to confront uncomfortable aspects of her past.

    Her claim to have endured an unwanted romantic pursuit by Nazi minister of propaganda Joseph Goebbels (first made in her 1987 memoir) appears in new light as an older Riefenstahl faces questioning from aggressive TV interviewers. She unflinchingly and fiercely maintains her version of events.

    Is Leni Riefenstahl a creative genius, a political victim, or an ignorant perpetrator? This film invites audiences to grapple with this old question anew — and perhaps come to their own conclusion.

    Montages depict Riefenstahl’s life from youth to old age, culminating in an image of an elderly lady who, even late in life, manipulates camera angles and lighting to ensure a more flattering appearance.

    Two to One (2024)

    Some German films such as Balloon (2018) or The Last Execution (2022) have a tendency to explore East Germans as either victims of oppression, or complicit with the regime of the German Democratic Republic.

    But there are also films that rebel against such simplification – such as Beauty and Decay (2019), Dear Thomas (2021) and Someday We’ll Tell Each Other Everything (2023) – to powerfully present the many dimensions of former East Germany and its people.

    Among them is Two to One, a thoughtful picture by director Nadja Brunckhorst, which fluctuates between thriller, comedy and melodrama. Based on a true story, this film remembers the delirious time between the Fall of the Berlin Wall and Reunification.

    It is July 1990, and just days after the deadline for exchanging East German marks to more valued West German marks at the exchange rate of 2:1. This halved the life savings of many East Germans.

    We follow a Hausgemeinschaft (community of renters) who discover millions of East German mark bills in an underground bunker. They cleverly use the more privileged members of their old and new worlds – sleek Western sales representatives and former East German diplomats – to transform the worthless bills into West mark and buy goods for everyone.

    Two to One stars Ronald Zehrfeld (also in the festival opener Long Story Short), Sandra Hueller and Peter Kurth in top form.

    Dying (2024)

    As a contender in the 2024 Berlin Film Festival (where it won best screenplay), and winner of the 2024 German Film Award, Dying comes highly recommended.

    Versatile German actor Lars Eidinger is cast as Tom, a youth orchestra conductor trying to pull off his best friend’s composition “Dying”. Not only does the performance never please the composer, his private world is also a mess.

    Tom is raising someone else’s child. His father (Hans-Uwe Bauer) suffers dementia. His sister Ellen (Lilith Stangenberg) can’t keep up with the expectations of their estranged parents. And his mother’s (Corinna Harfouch) thinly veiled contempt for her own son is visible in a breathtaking scene involving the seemingly innocent ritual of coffee and cake.

    But despite its weighty subject matter, humour appears in the most unexpected places.

    There is Ellen’s affair with her boss, a dentist, who ends up drunk in a bar — where she pulls one of his teeth. There is also the quietly absurd scene of her ageing parents trying to drive home from the supermarket: one nearly blind, the other unable to remember where they live.

    A film that uses absurdity and tenderness to break through emotional tension with surprising charm, Dying is a must see.

    I Want It All (2025)

    Singer and actress Hildegard Knef would have turned 100 this year.

    Knef was one of the most prominent and daring post-WWII West German female artists. Driven from a young age to become successful, she began her career in the 1946 rubble film, The Murderers Are Among Us.

    In her 2025 documentary I Want It All, director Luzia Schmidt captures Knef in rehearsals, at home, in the recording studio and through press photos. The film is a vivid portrait of an unapologetic woman constantly under scrutiny, as the German public seemed entitled to access every corner of her life.

    Knef comes across as sharp but self-aware. The artist discusses her stage fright and the art of holding an audience’s attention. Her candid remarks about undergoing plastic surgery, as a female artist navigating the ruthless entertainment industry, remain just as relevant today.

    Arguably the greatest assets of the film are the reflective comments from Knef’s daughter, Tinta, who speaks with empathy and kindness about her mother’s ambition and vulnerabilities.

    I Want It All is a treat for anyone who is familiar with Knef, and for those who want to know more about this grand dame of German culture.

    Cicadas (2025)

    An idyllic countryside in summer: a paradise retreat for some, and a prison for others.

    Isabell is the daughter of an architect, who is paralysed by a stroke. His beautifully designed house is in disrepair and no one can pay for it, but Isabell can’t get him to sell it. Meanwhile, Isabell’s marriage to her needy French husband Philippe is strained by a shared trauma.

    Anja, a single mum to young Greta, navigates a fragile existence. In a region with weak infrastructure, she moves between low-paying jobs, barely making ends meet.

    When the two women meet, their bond forms cautiously. Both are shaped by differences in class, age and life experience, yet there is a connection that bridges these divides.

    Carried by compelling performances by Saskia Rosenthal and Nina Hoss (the latter of whom had worked with director Ina Weisse in The Audition (2019)), Cicadas is a quiet drama about vulnerability and loss of control that evolves in the open landscapes of the Brandenburg region.

    Claudia Sandberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Unexpected humour and reflections on a complex past: my top 5 films from the 2025 German Film Festival – https://theconversation.com/unexpected-humour-and-reflections-on-a-complex-past-my-top-5-films-from-the-2025-german-film-festival-254788

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Explainer: what mental health support do refugees and asylum seekers get in Australia?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Philippa Specker, Postdoctoral Research Fellow at the Refugee Trauma and Recovery Program, School of Psychology, UNSW Sydney

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    When Australia signed the United Nations 1951 Refugee Convention, it committed to providing protection to people who have fled war, persecution and human rights violations.

    Refugees have often experienced severe traumatic events. This can include war, torture, kidnapping and witnessing the murder of loved ones.

    Understandably, refugees are more likely than the general population to experience mental health problems. About 27% of adult refugees suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and 30% from depression. Only 5.6% of Australians experience PTSD and 6.4% experience depression.

    Australia has a humanitarian and legal responsibility to support the mental health of refugees and asylum seekers so they can recover and thrive.

    Mental health problems are highly treatable when people have access to effective treatment. Addressing key barriers to accessing mental health services is in everyone’s best interest.

    So, what mental health support is available for refugees when they arrive in Australia?

    Different pathways

    Much depends on how the person came to Australia and through which scheme they applied to be recognised as a refugee.

    First, there are people who apply for and are granted refugee status by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) or Australia’s humanitarian program before arriving in Australia.

    These people, often termed “humanitarian entrants”, represent the largest cohort of Australia’s refugees.

    They are provided with permanent visas and join the government-run Humanitarian Settlement Program upon their arrival.

    Humanitarian Settlement Program caseworkers can refer these people to internal or external mental health support services.

    Importantly, people under Australia’s humanitarian program can also access vital services such as:

    • Medicare
    • Centrelink
    • English-language classes.

    They also have the right to work and study. This helps promote recovery, adjustment and wellbeing.

    Some people apply for and are granted refugee status by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees before arriving in Australia.
    John Wreford/Shutterstock

    Second, there are people who sought asylum via alternate pathways.

    This often means they arrived in Australia without a valid visa. Or, they may have held a non-refugee visa and subsequently applied for refugee status after arriving in Australia.

    These people, termed “asylum seekers”, are in a much more precarious situation.

    They face lengthy visa processing times, the possibility of being held in detention, and a greater likelihood of being granted only temporary visas.

    Many people in this situation are restricted from accessing government-run settlement support, such as the Humanitarian Settlement Program and Centrelink.

    This is a problem, because research shows people seeking asylum or holding temporary visas in Australia are especially likely to be experiencing mental health problems.

    A range of services

    That said, Australia has a range of mental health support services available to all refugees and asylum seekers.

    This includes the Forum of Australian Services for Survivors of Torture and Trauma (FASSTT), a network of rehabilitation centres in every state and territory.

    These specialised services provide holistic support including:

    • psychological and counselling sessions
    • community capacity building programs (such as work readiness and community garden initiatives), and
    • advocacy.

    Organisations such as Settlement Services International, Australian Red Cross, AMES and Beyond Blue also provide refugee-specific mental health supports and resources.

    And some community-run social programs, such as Football United, focus on increasing social inclusion, which can help boost mental health.

    Refugees have often experienced severe traumatic events.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Barriers to access

    Demand for specialised mental health services is high. That can mean long waiting times for all Australians, including refugees and asylum seekers.

    Research has identified a number of barriers that especially affect refugees and asylum seekers. These include:

    • stigma around mental health problems and help-seeking
    • lack of knowledge on mental health
    • language and cultural barriers, and
    • logistical barriers (such as cost and travel distance).

    Finally, some refugees (particularly asylum seekers or people with temporary visas) may not be as aware of mental health services as humanitarian entrants. The latter group are often connected with such services while part of the Humanitarian Settlement Program.

    This puts the onus on such individuals to independently research what services are available and refer themselves.

    That’s a tough ask for people also busy finding housing, learning English, enrolling children in school, and progressing their visa applications.

    Why does this matter?

    Refugees represent a significant portion of our society. By the end of this year, Australia will have welcomed 1 million refugees since the end of World War II.

    International law dictates that survivors of torture and other forms of persecution under Australia’s protection have access to effective rehabilitation services.

    More broadly, the psychological cost of trauma can make it harder for some refugees to adapt to life in Australia. PTSD and depression can be chronic conditions. Without effective treatment, mental health challenges can persist for decades.

    Helping refugees recover from the psychological effects of trauma and displacement also promotes the prosperity of the wider community. That’s because refugees enrich Australian society by establishing local businesses, working, facilitating new trade links, volunteering and contributing to the community.

    When refugees thrive, we all do.

    Philippa Specker receives funding from an MQ: Transforming Mental Health Postdoctoral Scholarship (MPSIP15). She is an associate of the Human Rights Institute, UNSW.

    Angela Nickerson receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council.

    Belinda Liddell receives funding from the Australian Research Council and National Health and Medical Research Council.

    – ref. Explainer: what mental health support do refugees and asylum seekers get in Australia? – https://theconversation.com/explainer-what-mental-health-support-do-refugees-and-asylum-seekers-get-in-australia-255427

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: As Dutton champions nuclear power, Indigenous artists recall the profound loss of land and life that came from it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Josephine Goldman, Sessional Academic, School of Languages and Cultures, Discipline of French and Francophone Studies, University of Sydney

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s promise to power Australia with nuclear energy has been described by experts as a costly “mirage” that risks postponing the clean energy transition.

    Beyond this, however, the Coalition’s nuclear policy has, for many First Nations peoples, raised the spectre of the last time the atomic industry came to Australia.

    Indigenous peoples across Oceania share memories of violent histories of nuclear bomb testing, uranium mining and waste dumping – all of which disproportionately affected them and/or their ancestors.

    Two sides of the same coin

    While it may be tempting to separate them, the links between military and civilian nuclear industries – that is, between nuclear weapons and nuclear energy plants – are well established. According to a 2021 paper by energy economists Lars Sorge and Anne Neumann: “In part, the global civilian nuclear industry was established to legitimatise the development of nuclear weapons.”

    The causative links between military and civilian uses of nuclear power flow in both directions.

    As Sorge and Neumann write, many technologies and skills developed for use in nuclear bombs and submarines end up being used in nuclear power generation. Another expert analysis suggests countries that receive peaceful nuclear assistance, in the form of nuclear technology, materials or skills, are more likely to initiate nuclear weapons programs.

    Since the first atomic bombing of Hiroshima in 1945, Indigenous peoples across the Pacific have been singing, writing and talking about nuclear colonialism. Some were told the sacrifice of their lands and lifeways was “for the good of mankind”.

    Today, they continue to use their bodies and voices to push back against the promise of a benevolent nuclear future – a vision that has often been used justify their and their ancestors’ suffering and displacement.

    Black mist and brittle landscapes

    In 2023, Bangarra Dance Company produced Yuldea. This performance centres on the Yooldil Kapi, a permanent desert waterhole.

    For millennia, this water source sustained the Aṉangu and Nunga peoples and a multitude of other plant and animal life across the Great Victorian Desert and far-west South Australia.

    In 1933, Yuldea became the site of the Ooldea Mission. Then, in 1953, when the British began testing nuclear bombs at nearby Emu Field (1953) and Maralinga (1956–57), the local Aṉangu Pila Nguru were displaced from their land to the mission.

    Directed by Wirangu and Mirning woman Frances Rings, Yuldea tells the story of this Country in four acts: act one, Supernova; act two, Kapi (Water); act three, Empire; and act four, Ooldea Spirit.

    The impacts of nuclear testing are directly confronted in a section titled Black Mist (in act three, Empire). Dancers’ bodies twist and spasm as a black mist falls from the sky, representing the fog of radioactive particles that resulted from weapons testing. In reality, this fog could cause lifelong injuries when inhaled or ingested, including blindness.

    But Yuldea is more than just a story of destruction. By exploring Aṉangu and Nunga relationships with Country before and after nuclear testing, it affirms their enduring presence in the region. This is captured in the opening prose:

    We are memory.
    Glimpsed through shimmering light on water.
    A story place where black oaks stand watch.
    Carved into trees and painted on rocks.
    North – South – East – West.
    A brittle landscape of life and loss.

    To acknowledge is to remember

    The podcast Nu/clear Stories (2023-), created by Mā’ohi (Tahitian) women Mililani Ganivet and Marie-Hélène Villierme, uses storytelling to grapple with the consequences of colonial nuclear testing.

    Ganivet and Villierme address the memories of French nuclear testing on the islands of Moruroa and Fangataufa in Mā’ohi Nui (French Polynesia) from 1963 to 1996.

    Rather than using a linear understanding of time, which keeps the past in the past and idealises a future of “progress”, Nu/clear Stories draws on Indigenous philosophies of cyclical or spiral time to insist that by turning to the past, we can understand how history shapes the present and future.

    As Ganivet says when introducing the first episode, Silences and Questions:

    We are part of a long genealogy of people who found the courage to speak before us. […] To acknowledge them here is to remember that without them we would not be able to speak today. And so today, we stand on their shoulders, with the face firmly turned towards the past, but with our eyes gazing deep into the future.

    Protest march against French nuclear testing in the Pacific, Willis Street, Wellington. Evening post (Newspaper. 1865-2002) :Photographic negatives and prints of the Evening Post newspaper.
    Ref: 1/4-020364-F. Alexander Turnbull Library, Wellington, New Zealand. /records/22809366, CC BY-NC

    Stories in the Tomb

    In her 2018 poem video Anointed, Part III of the series Dome, Marshall Islander woman Kathy Jetn̄il-Kijiner pays homage to Runit Island. This island in the Enewetak Atoll was transformed into a dumping site for waste from US nuclear bomb tests between 1946 and 1958.

    A huge concrete dome was built on Runit Island in the 1970s to cover about 85,000 cubic metres of radioactive waste. The island became known as “the Tomb” to the Enewetak people – a tomb that still leaks nuclear radiation into the ocean today.

    Nuclear bombs were exploded above ground and underwater on the Bikini and Enewetak Atolls. A huge concrete dome on Runit Island, built to contain nuclear waste, has given the island the nickname ‘the Tomb’.
    Wikimedia

    However, like the creators behind Yuldea and Nu/clear Stories, Jetn̄il-Kijiner refuses to remember Runit Island as only a nuclear graveyard. Instead, she approaches it like a long-lost family member or ancestor who she hopes will be full of stories.

    Jetn̄il-Kijiner speaks to the island through her poem, drawing a devastating contrast between what it once was and what it is now:

    You were a whole island, once. You were breadfruit trees heavy with green globes of fruit whispering promises of massive canoes. Crabs dusted with white sand scuttled through pandanus roots. Beneath looming coconut trees beds of ripe watermelon slept still, swollen with juice. And you were protected by powerful irooj, chiefs birthed from women who could swim pregnant for miles beneath a full moon.

    Then you became testing ground. Nine nuclear weapons consumed you, one by one by one, engulfed in an inferno of blazing heat. You became crater, an empty belly. Plutonium ground into a concrete slurry filled your hollow cavern. You became tomb. You became concrete shell. You became solidified history, immoveable, unforgettable.

    While Jetn̄il-Kijiner describes herself as “a crater empty of stories”, she continues to find stories in the Tomb: namely, the legend of Letao, the son of a turtle goddess who turned himself into fire and, in the hands of a small boy, nearly burned a village to the ground.

    Juxtaposing this fire with the US’s nuclear bombs, she ends her poem with “questions, hard as concrete”:

    Who gave them this power?
    Who anointed them with the power to burn?

    The link between past and future

    In their book Living in a nuclear world: From Fukushima to Hiroshima (2022), Bernadette Bensaude-Vincent and others explore how “nuclear actors” frame nuclear technology as “indispensable”, “mundane” and “safe” by neatly severing nuclear energy from nuclear history.

    This framing helps nuclear actors avoid answering concrete questions. It also helps to hides the colonial history of nuclear technologies – histories which leak into the present. But not everyone accepts this framing.

    Indigenous artists remind us the nuclear past must be front-of-mind as we look to shape the future.

    During her PhD thesis – funded by the Australian Government Research Training Program – Josephine worked on photographic works by Marie-Hélène Villierme. She has also interviewed Villierme in the past, and worked with her collaboratively on a book chapter on her work (published in Francophone Oceania Today (2024)).

    – ref. As Dutton champions nuclear power, Indigenous artists recall the profound loss of land and life that came from it – https://theconversation.com/as-dutton-champions-nuclear-power-indigenous-artists-recall-the-profound-loss-of-land-and-life-that-came-from-it-249371

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Schools today also teach social and emotional skills. Why is this important? And what’s involved?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kristin R. Laurens, Professor, School of Psychology and Counselling, Queensland University of Technology

    DGLImages/Shutterstock

    The school curriculum has changed a lot from when many parents and grandparents were at school.

    Alongside new approaches to learning maths and increasing attention on technology, there is a compulsory focus on social and emotional skills.

    Children start developing these skills by watching and observing others as babies. But they also need to be taught about them more actively – think about parents telling kids to say “thank you” or making sure they take turns when playing with friends.

    How do schools teach social and emotional skills? And why is it important? Our new research shows how these lessons can improve students’ wellbeing and lead to better academic results.

    What do schools teach about social and emotional skills?

    As the Productivity Commission noted in 2023, schools should support students’ social and emotional wellbeing to help them “cope with the various stresses of life”. It also found strong social and emotional skills support students’ ability to engage and learn at school.

    Since 2010, social and emotional skills have been a compulsory part of the Australian Curriculum. This involves four key strands for students from the first year of school to Year 10:

    1. self-awareness: understanding your strengths and limitations and having confidence you can achieve goals

    2. self-management: identifying and managing your emotions, thoughts and behaviours in different situations. This includes managing stress and controlling impulses

    3. social awareness: understanding other perspectives, empathising with others from different backgrounds and cultures and understanding social expectations for behaviour

    4. relationship skills: forming and maintaining healthy relationships, communicating and cooperating. This also includes responsible decision-making and understanding morals and consequences.

    How are these skills taught?

    Teaching these skills can be done in two ways.

    The first is by incorporating them into core academic subjects. For example, an English teacher might ask students to discuss the emotions, behaviours and relationships of characters in a novel. Teachers should also model the skills in their interactions with students.

    To do this effectively, teachers need specific knowledge of how to teach these skills. Busy schools may not prioritise this professional development for teachers because, unlike academic knowledge, these skills are not assessed.

    The second approach is to use a structured program designed to develop these skills. These programs can particularly help teachers with less training in social and emotional teaching.

    However, we know these programs are not always available or implemented adequately in schools. For example, in 2015 we surveyed 600 public, Catholic and independent NSW primary schools. Fewer than two-thirds (60%) taught social and emotional skills using formal programs. And of the programs used, one in three (34%) had either never been tested or showed no positive effects on students’ social-emotional skills.

    Why is this important?

    But research tells us formal programs can work. Our 2025 study looked at the social and emotional skills of 18,600 Year 6 students in NSW government and non-government primary schools. We also used data from their school leaders about the types of social and emotional skills programs they used – or did not use.

    We found students who received structured, evidence-based programs (on average, over three to four years) had better social and emotional skills on our self-report survey than those who did not.

    Students who received these programs had social and emotional skills that were 7-10 percentile points better than those who did not. That is, in a group of 100 students, they ranked 7-10 places higher.

    But it showed there was only a benefit if programs were evidence-based – this means they had been formally tested to check they could be taught effectively by teachers in the classroom.

    Social and emotional skills include being able to identify your emotions and cooperating with others.
    DGLImages/Shutterstock

    There are academic benefits as well

    In another 2025 study, we followed students as they went to high school. We wanted to see how their social and emotional skills in primary school related to their later academic achievement.

    We linked our survey data on NSW Year 6 students’ self-awareness and self-management skills with their NAPLAN reading and numeracy scores in Year 7. We could do this for almost 24,000 students who participated in our survey and in NAPLAN.

    We found increases in these skills were linked to increases in NAPLAN scores. Standard gains ranged between 8–20 percentile points.

    This fits with other research which shows students with strong self-awareness and self-management are more confident about achieving academic goals and more engaged and focused on their learning. This in turn helps them engage and persevere with challenges, so they achieve more academic learning.

    What now?

    Our research shows how programs teaching social and emotional skills can give young people fundamental skills to navigate learning and life beyond school. But implementation is patchy and not always based on evidence. School today involves more than reading, maths and facts. This means all schools need resources and access to effective programs to teach social and emotional skills.

    Kristin R. Laurens received funding for this research from the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia.

    Emma Carpendale received an Australian Government Research Training Program Stipend scholarship and a Queensland University of Technology Faculty of Health Excellence Top-Up scholarship.

    – ref. Schools today also teach social and emotional skills. Why is this important? And what’s involved? – https://theconversation.com/schools-today-also-teach-social-and-emotional-skills-why-is-this-important-and-whats-involved-253342

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Logging devastated Victoria’s native forests – and new research shows 20% has failed to grow back

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Maldwyn John Evans, Senior Research Fellow, Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University

    Old growth mountain ash forest in the Maroondah water supply catchment, Victoria. Chris Taylor

    Following the end of native logging in Victoria on January 1 2024, the state’s majestic forests might be expected to regenerate and recover naturally. But our new research shows that’s not always the case.

    We quantified the extent of regeneration following logging in the eucalypt forests of southeastern Australia between 1980 and 2019. This included nearly 42,000 hectares of logged mountain ash forest in Victoria’s Central Highlands.

    We analysed satellite data, logging records, on-ground surveys and drone photography, and discovered that nearly 20% of logged areas failed to regenerate. This represents more than 8,000 hectares of forest lost. All that remains in these areas are grassy clearings, dense shrublands or bare soils.

    We also found the rate of regeneration failure has increased over the past decade. While failure was rare in the 1980s, it became much more common over time – affecting more than 80% of logged sites by 2019.

    These regeneration failures weren’t random. They were found mostly in close proximity to each other, on areas with steep slopes, relatively low elevation, and where the area of clear-felled forest was long and narrow.

    Our research shows more needs to be done to restore Victoria’s forest after logging.

    Failed regeneration in the Upper Thomson water supply catchment.
    Chris Taylor/Lachie McBurnie

    Restoring majestic forests and their vital services

    Victoria is home to some of the most spectacular forests on the planet. They include extensive stands of mountain ash, the tallest flowering plant on Earth, which can grow to almost 100 metres in height. Alpine ash, another giant, can grow up to 60m tall.

    These forests have great cultural significance to Indigenous people and support many recreational and tourism activities.

    Healthy forest ecosystems also deliver clean water and carbon storage services. In fact, mountain ash forests contain more carbon per hectare than most other forests around the world.

    But Victoria’s forests have long been logged for timber and pulp. The main method of logging – clearfelling – scars the landscape, leaving large areas devoid of trees if natural tree regeneration fails.

    Mountain ash is especially vulnerable

    Our research revealed 19.2% of areas logged between 1980 and 2019 in our study area (8,030ha out of 41,819ha cut) failed to regenerate naturally.

    We also found strong evidence of a significant increase in the extent of failed regeneration over 40 years, increasing from less than two hectares per cutblock in 1980 (about 7.5%) to more than nine hectares per cutblock in 2019 (about 85%), on average.

    We found regeneration failure was more likely in mountain ash forests compared with other forest types.

    This adds to the case for listing the mountain ash forests of the Central Highlands of Victoria as a threatened ecological community.

    The presence of non-eucalypt categories of vegetation indicates large areas of regeneration failure in forest near Mt Matlock, in the Central Highlands of Victoria.
    Chris Taylor

    A responsibility to restore

    Under Victoria’s Code of Forest Practice for Timber Production, logged native forests must be properly regenerated within two to three years of harvest.

    That’s because it is nearly impossible for the native forest to regenerate after three years without human intervention. The young trees face too much competition from grass and shrubs.

    These degraded areas no longer hold the value they once did and they cannot provide the same level of ecosystem services such as carbon storage, water purification, or habitat for wildlife.

    With no current government restoration plan, these landscapes will remain degraded indefinitely. The Victorian government retains legal responsibility to restore these degraded forests, but currently lacks any large-scale restoration strategy, making action urgently required.

    Photographs of vegetation categories on logged sites: Eucalyptus regeneration near Toolangi (A), grass-dominated area near Mt Matlock (B), shrubby vegetation at Ballantynes Saddle (C), Daviesia vegetation near Mt Matlock (D), Acacia near Mt Baw Baw (E), and bare earth near Mt Matlock (F).
    Chris Taylor

    A way forward: using green bonds to fund regeneration

    Our research shows the regeneration of forests after logging is not guaranteed. Nature often needs a helping hand. But we need to find ways to fund these projects.

    Globally, governments have used “green bonds” to lower the cost of borrowing tied explicitly to measurable environmental results.

    Victoria already has green bonds “to finance new and existing projects that offer climate change and environmental benefits”. But funds are typically used to finance investments in transport, renewable energy, water and low carbon buildings.

    As part of a coalition of researchers, environmental organisations, and finance sector partners we proposed a A$224 million green bond for forest regeneration. This proposal was put to the Victorian government via the Treasury Corporation of Victoria.

    Green bond funding would help leverage co-investment from the Commonwealth government and philanthropic partners to improve monitoring and biodiversity outcomes in native forests.

    As part of the proposed green bond, areas of logged forest where natural regeneration has failed would be restored.

    Other investments under the green bond could include creating tourism ventures (and associated jobs), controlling feral animals such as deer, and biodiversity recovery – creating habitat for endangered species such as the southern greater glider and Leadbeater’s possum, for example.

    The $224 million required for the ten years of the green bond — or around $22.4 million per year — is less than the substantial losses Victoria incurred on its investment in VicForests over the past decade.

    Our research suggests leaving nature to its own devices would mean losing a fifth of the forests logged over the past 40 years. Bringing the trees back has multiple benefits and would be well worth the investment.

    Maldwyn John Evans receives funding from the Australian Government.

    David Lindenmayer receives funding from The Australian Government, the Australian Research Council and the Victorian Government. He is a Councillor with the Biodiversity Council and a Member of Birdlife Australia.

    Chris Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Logging devastated Victoria’s native forests – and new research shows 20% has failed to grow back – https://theconversation.com/logging-devastated-victorias-native-forests-and-new-research-shows-20-has-failed-to-grow-back-254465

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: What are the symptoms of measles? How long does the vaccine last? Experts answer 6 key questions

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Phoebe Williams, Paediatrician & Infectious Diseases Physician; Senior Lecturer & NHMRC Fellow, Faculty of Medicine, University of Sydney

    fotohay/Shutterstock

    So far in 2025 (as of May 1), 70 cases of measles have been notified in Australia, with all states and territories except Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory having recorded at least one case. Most infections have occurred in New South Wales, Victoria and Western Australia.

    We’ve already surpassed the total number of cases recorded in all of 2023 (26 cases) and 2024 (57 cases).

    Measles outbreaks are currently occurring in every region of the world. Most Australian cases are diagnosed in travellers returning from overseas, including popular holiday destinations in Southeast Asia.

    But although Australia eliminated local transmission of measles in 2014, recently we’ve seen measles infections once again in Australians who haven’t been overseas. In other words, the virus has been transmitted in the community.

    So with measles health alerts and news reports popping up often, what do you need to know about measles? We’ve collated a list of commonly Googled questions about the virus and the vaccine.

    1. What is measles?

    Measles is one of the most contagious diseases known to affect humans. In fact, every person with measles can infect 12 to 18 others who are not immune. The measles virus can survive in the air for two hours, so people can inhale the virus even after an infected person has left the room.

    Measles predominantly affects children and those with weaker immune systems. Up to four in ten people with measles will need to go to hospital, and up to three in 1,000 people who get measles will die.

    In 2023, there were more than 100,000 deaths from measles around the world.



    Read more:
    Travelling overseas? You could be at risk of measles. Here’s how to ensure you’re protected

    2. What are the symptoms of measles?

    The signs and symptoms of measles usually start 7–14 days after exposure to the virus, and include rash, fever, a runny nose, cough and conjunctivitis. The rash usually starts on the face or neck, and spreads over three days to eventually reach the hands and feet. On darker skin, the rash may be harder to see.

    Complications from measles are common, and include ear infections, encephalitis (swelling of the brain), blindness and breathing problems or pneumonia. These complications are more likely in children.

    Pregnant women are also at greater risk of serious complications, and measles can also cause preterm labour and stillbirth.

    Even in people who recover from measles, a rare (and often fatal) brain condition can occur many years later, called subacute sclerosing panencephalitis.

    Children are most vulnerable to measles.
    Jacob Lund/Shutterstock

    3. What’s the difference between measles and chickenpox?

    Measles and chickenpox are caused by different viruses, although both commonly affect children, and vaccines can prevent both diseases. Chickenpox is caused by the varicella zoster virus, which is also transmitted through the air, and can cause fever, rash and rare (yet serious) complications.

    The chickenpox rash is different to the rash seen in measles. It often starts on the chest or back, appearing first as separate red bumps that evolve into fluid-filled blisters, called vesicles. Chickenpox can also appear later in life as shingles.

    4. Can you get measles twice?

    The simple answer is no. If you contract measles, you should have lifelong immunity afterwards.

    In Australia, people born before 1966 would have most likely been infected with measles, because the vaccine wasn’t available to them as children. They are therefore protected from future infection.

    Measles infection however can reduce the immune system’s ability to recognise infections it has previously encountered, leaving people vulnerable to many of the infections to which they previously had immunity. Vaccination can protect against this.

    5. What is the measles vaccine, and at what age do you get it?

    The measles vaccine contains a live but weakened version of the measles virus. In Australia, measles vaccinations are given as part of a combination vaccine that contains the measles virus alongside the mumps and rubella viruses (the MMR vaccine), and the chickenpox virus (MMRV).

    Under the national immunisation program, children in Australia receive measles vaccines at 12 months (MMR) and 18 months of age (MMRV). In other countries, the age of vaccination may vary – but at least two doses are always needed for optimal immunity.

    In Australia, children are vaccinated against measles at 12 and 18 months.
    Zhuravlev Andrey/Shutterstock

    Measles vaccines can be given earlier than 12 months, from as early as six months, to protect infants who may be at higher risk of exposure to the virus (such as those travelling overseas). Infants who receive an early dose of the measles vaccine still receive the usual two recommended doses at 12 and 18 months old.

    Australians born between 1966 and 1994 (those aged roughly 20–60) are considered to be at greater risk of measles, as the second dose was only recommended from November 1992. Australia is seeing breakthrough measles infections in this age group.

    An additional measles vaccine can be given to these adults at any time. It’s safe to get an extra dose even if you have been vaccinated before. If you are unsure if you need one, talk to your GP who may check your measles immunity (or immunisation record, if applicable) before vaccinating.

    However, as the measles vaccine is a live vaccine, it’s not safe to give to people with weakened immune systems (due to certain medical conditions) or pregnant women. It’s therefore important that healthy, eligible people receive the measles vaccine to protect themselves and our vulnerable population.

    6. How long does a measles vaccine last?

    The measles vaccine is one of the most effective vaccines we have. After two doses, about 99% of people will be protected against measles for life.

    And the measles vaccine not only protects you from disease. It also stops you from transmitting the virus to others.

    Phoebe Williams receives research funding focused on reducing antimicrobial resistance and neonatal sepsis from the National Health and Medical Research Council and the Gates Foundation.

    Archana Koirala is the chair of the Vaccination Special Interest Group and a committee member of the Australian and New Zealand paediatric infectious diseases network with Australasian Society of Infectious Diseases. Her vaccine and seroprevalence research has been funded by the Australian Government Department of Health and Aged Care and NSW Health.

    – ref. What are the symptoms of measles? How long does the vaccine last? Experts answer 6 key questions – https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-symptoms-of-measles-how-long-does-the-vaccine-last-experts-answer-6-key-questions-255496

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How the US ‘war on woke’ and women risks weakening its own military capability

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bethan Greener, Associate Professor of Politics, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University

    US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a visit with Michigan Air National Guard troops, April 29. Getty Images

    With US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s “proud” cancellation this week of the military’s Women, Peace and Security (WPS) program, the “war on woke” has found its latest frontier – war itself.

    Stemming from a United Nations Security Council resolution in 2000, the WPS initiative aimed to increase the participation of women in public institutions, including in the security sector and in peace-making roles.

    The WPS agenda aims to better understand how women, men, boys and girls experience war, peace and security differently. It increases operational effectiveness and supports the underlying goal of gender equality, described by the UN as the “number one predictor of peace”.

    In the military context, it emphasises the need to increase the participation of women and to better protect non-combatant women in war, particularly from the prevalence of conflict-related sexual violence.

    The decision to end the program as part of a wider war on diversity, equity and inclusion seems to assume national security and military power are incompatible with the promotion of racial and gender equality.

    In other words, it assumes certain types of people aren’t really cut out to be “warfighters”. And it asserts that anything other than basic skill (such as weapons handling) undermines readiness and ability in warfare.

    History and the available evidence suggest both ideas are wrong.

    The archetypal warrior envisaged by Hegseth and others is one who relies on very traditional concepts of what constitutes a warrior and who that might be: not female, definitely not transgender, ideally also not gay.

    Recent bans on transgender personnel in the US military, the removal of mandatory mental resilience training, and the
    “disappearance” from US museums and memorials of the records of the military contribution of women and minorities, reinforce these ideas.

    The ideal soldier, according to the new doctrine, is straight, white, physically fit, stoic and male. Yet people of all stripes have served their countries ably and with honour.

    Hard-won progress in retreat

    Military service is allocated a privileged kind of status in society, despite (or perhaps because of) the ultimate sacrifice it can entail. That status has long been the preserve of men, often of a particular class or ethnicity.

    But women and minorities around the world have fought for the right to enter the military, often as part of broader campaigns for greater equality within society in general.

    But there remains resistance to these “interlopers”. No matter their individual capabilities, women are painted as too physically weak, as a threat to combat unit cohesion, or a liability because of their particular health needs.

    Women, in particular, are often perceived as being too emotional or lacking authority for military command. Minorities are seen as requiring distracting rules about cultural sensitivity, presenting language challenges, or are stereotyped as not cut out for leadership.

    But problem solving – a key military requirement – is best tackled with a range of views and approaches. Research from the business world shows diverse teams are more successful, including delivering higher financial returns.

    At a more granular level, we also know that minority groups have often outperformed other military units, as exemplified by the extraordinary feats of the New Zealand Māori Pioneer Battalion in World War I and the 28th Māori Battalion in World War II.

    Women, too, have proved themselves many times over, most recently in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. As well as matching the skills of their male counterparts, they also had different, useful approaches to roles such as intelligence gathering in conflict zones.

    US Marines on a military exercise – but history shows us there’s more than one type of successful soldier.
    Getty Images

    The ‘woke warrior’

    The competence of military personnel is not determined by sex, gender, sexuality or ethnicity. Rather, competence is determined by a combination of learned skills, training, education, physical ability, mental agility, resilience, experience, interpersonal skills and leadership qualities.

    Any suggestion that military units are best served by being made up of only heterosexual men with “alpha” tendencies is undermined by the evidence. In fact, a monocultural, hypermasculine military may increase the potential for harrassment, bullying or worse.

    Modern military roles also involve a much wider range of skills than the traditional and stereotypically male infantry tasks of digging, walking with a pack, firing guns and killing an enemy.

    In modern warfare, personnel may also need to engage in “hearts and minds” counterinsurgency, or in “grey zone” tactics, where specialisations in intelligence, cyber or drone piloting are more highly prized. Militaries are also much more likely to be deployed to non-warfighting roles, such as humanitarian aid and disaster relief.

    This isn’t to say “controlled aggression” and other traditionally alpha-male attributes don’t have their place. But national military strategies increasingly stress the need to train ethical and compassionate soldiers to successfully carry out government objectives.

    The evolution of war requires the evolution of the military forces that fight them. The cancellation of the Women, Peace and Security program in the US threatens to put a stop to this process, at least in that country.

    Despite Pete Hegseth’s claim to be increasing “warfighting” capability, then, there is a real chance the move will decrease operational effectiveness, situational awareness and problem solving in conflict situations.

    Far from being peripheral, the Women, Peace and Security program is central to the future of all military activity, and to developing conceptions of war, peace and security. Hegseth’s “proud moment” looks less like winning a “war on woke” and more like a retreat from an understanding of the value a diverse military has created.

    Bethan Greener does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How the US ‘war on woke’ and women risks weakening its own military capability – https://theconversation.com/how-the-us-war-on-woke-and-women-risks-weakening-its-own-military-capability-255710

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: Key markers on the bumpy road to this election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    When we look back, we can see the road to election day has had a multitude of signposts, flashing red lights, twists, turns and potholes. Some came before the formal campaign; others in the final countdown days; some have been major, others symbolic.

    The importance of certain markers has been obvious in the moment; the significance of others became clear in retrospect. Here is a recap of a few of those that have shaped this campaign and its battle for votes.

    1. Anthony Albanese’s January 6 $7.2 billion announcement to upgrade the Bruce Highway

    Why start here? Because this was the prime minister jumping out of the blocks at the start of January, with multiple announcements over the summer. Albanese laid down policy groundwork in these weeks, giving voters time to absorb the initiatives.

    In contrast, Peter Dutton, although he had a “soft” launch on January 12, was running slowly, believing voters weren’t yet paying attention.

    2. Donald Trump’s inauguration

    January 21 unleashed a tsunami; its waves would wash over the coming months, and profoundly affect the election. At first, the Coalition thought – wrongly – that the election of Trump would favour it, but Labor became the beneficiary. Many Australians (including Dutton) were appalled at the way Trump and Vice President JD Vance treated Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky. Later, Trump’s tariffs hit Australia (although not as hard as many countries).

    Dutton argued he’d be better able than Albanese to handle the capricious president, but it became a spurious debate. Labor painted Dutton as Trump-lite and some of his decisions played into its hands, notably appointing in late January Senator Jacinta Nampijinpa Price to a Musk-like role to pursue efficiencies in government. She later made the comparison even more obvious by saying the Coalition would “make Australia great again”.

    But the central factor was this: suddenly, the world had become more uncertain and many voters would think it wasn’t the time to change.

    3. The Reserve Bank’s cut in interest rates on February 18

    The amount was modest, 25 basis points, but the psychology was the thing. The cut reinforced Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ argument that the worst was over and the outlook was positive. In the campaign’s final week, just at the right time for the government, inflation figures pointed to another expected cut in May.

    4. Cyclone Alfred’s March 7 election delay

    Albanese appeared set to call an April 12 poll, when the approaching winds blew the plan off course. The prime minister was able to put himself at the middle of the response to the cyclone, projecting himself as a national leader as distinct from a partisan one; he appeared with Queensland LNP Premier David Crisafulli, and at the Canberra National Situation Room.

    The election delay meant Labor had to bring down the March 25 budget. Many in the government had wanted to avoid a budget, because of its deficits into the distance. But the budget became a useful frame for the start of the formal campaign, with Albanese going to Government House at the end of budget week.

    5. Dutton’s budget reply

    The opposition leader’s reply contained his proposal to cut petrol excise but did not include tax cuts. The opposition had already voted against the government’s budget tax cut package, and committed to repealing it.

    The excise move was popular – Dutton would visit countless service stations over coming weeks – but the government was able to say a Coalition government would raise taxes.

    At his campaign launch subsequently, Dutton promised a $1,200 tax offset, despite earlier flagging he would not be able to announce any income tax relief during the campaign. The tax offset was an attempt to rectify what had been the mistake of thinking that the Coalition – traditionally committed to lower taxes – could go to the election on the wrong side of the tax argument.

    6. Dutton’s April 7 backtrack on working from home

    The opposition policy to get public servants back into the office all week was a disaster-in-the-making from the start. Workers in the private sector would, rightly, see it as sending a signal to non-government employers.

    Women hated the policy, and it would further alienate the female vote. Dutton had to ditch the idea and apologise. Finance spokeswoman Jane Hume didn’t help the retreat by saying it was a good policy that hadn’t found its appropriate time.

    7. News on April 15 that the Russians wanted to base planes in Papua

    The story appeared on the respected military site Janes, and Dutton rushed to pick it up, but went off half-cocked, declaring wrongly that the Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto had announced the Russian request. It was symptomatic of Dutton being under-prepared. He had to make another apology.

    8. Neo-Nazis heckle during the Welcome to Country at the Melbourne Shrine of Remembrance Anzac Day Dawn Service

    This led to Dutton launching into “culture wars” in the final days of the campaign. In criticising the disruption, he at first said, “We have a proud Indigenous heritage in this country and we should be proud to celebrate it as part of today”.

    Subsequently he said most veterans didn’t want the Welcome to Country as part of the Anzac Day ceremonies, although it was a matter for the organisers. In general, he believed Welcome to Country ceremonies were used too frequently.

    Dutton segued the controversy back to criticism of the Voice, and seized on confusing remarks by Foreign Minister Penny Wong to claim Labor was still committed to bringing in a Voice, something Albanese flatly denied.

    9. The price of eggs

    In the last of the four debates neither leader could specify the cost of a dozen eggs. Dutton was way out ($4.20); Albanese rather closer (“$7, if you can find them.”. It was a small moment but sent the message that even in a cost-of-living election, the leaders do live in bubbles.

    10. Dutton comments on Thursday

    Almost at the road’s end, the opposition leader appealed to voters to overlook a flawed campaign. “This election really is a referendum not about the election campaign but about the last three years.”

    Asked if there was anything he could have done differently, he said “we should have called out Labor’s lies earlier on”.

    It was as though he was speaking to a postmortem, while praying for a miracle.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grattan on Friday: Key markers on the bumpy road to this election – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-key-markers-on-the-bumpy-road-to-this-election-255613

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Tourism to the US is tanking. Flight Centre is facing a $100m hit as a result

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anita Manfreda, Senior Lecturer in Tourism, Torrens University Australia

    Doubletree Studio/Shutterstock

    Flight Centre, one of the world’s largest travel agencies, has warned it could lose more than A$100 million in earnings this year, citing weakening demand for travel to the United States.

    In a statement to the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) this week, the company pointed to “volatile trading conditions” linked to changes in US entry policies.

    This is the first major indication from an Australian company that travel to the US is becoming a serious concern. It follows growing consumer fears linked to US immigration checks, reports of tourists being detained, and rising costs.

    Australian visitor numbers to the US fell by 7% in March compared with the same time last year – the sharpest fall since the COVID pandemic.

    Australians are not the only ones staying away. New US data for March show sharp drops in visitors from key markets: Germany (down 28%), Spain (25%), the United Kingdom (18%) and South Korea (15%), to name a few. In total, inbound tourism fell 11.6%.

    Even Canadian travellers, traditionally the US’s most reliable market, dropped by more than 900,000 or 17% in March, as growing numbers of Canadians opt to boycott US holidays.

    What was once a reliable flow of high-spending international travellers is becoming a much quieter stream.

    America’s welcome mat is wearing thin

    The US, long marketed as the land of opportunity and adventure, is increasingly perceived as unwelcoming. Tighter border scrutiny, aggressive immigration enforcement, and a sharp shift in political tone have made travellers wary.

    The international arrivals terminal at Atlanta airport: Tourists are rethinking their US travel plans.
    Shutterstock

    While the Flight Centre statement used careful language, its chief executive Graham Turner was clear, saying:

    People from Europe, the United Kingdom and Australia really don’t want to go to the States, given what’s happening there. We’re hearing more and more people don’t want to go through passport control.

    Reports of tourists being detained, shackled and deported at US airports over minor alleged visa issues or misunderstandings have circulated widely. In some cases, visitors have had their phones and electronic devices searched without clear cause. For many travellers, that is a risk not worth taking.

    Governments have started to respond. Several countries, including New Zealand, Germany, France, Denmark and Finland, have updated their official travel advice for the US, urging citizens to exercise caution when visiting. The message filtering through international media is clear: the US is not as easy, safe or welcoming as it once seemed.

    But while diplomatic warnings grow louder, the economic costs of America’s hardening stance are only beginning to register.

    Tourism: America’s forgotten export

    While President Donald Trump has slapped tariffs on goods imports from most countries, he has ignored the contribution of services trade to the economy. The US actually runs a surplus in services such as education and tourism. Trump has dismissed the decline in visitors as “not a big deal”.

    The trade wars have focused on goods – cars, steel, farm products – but the service sector, which makes up a larger share of the economy, bears the hidden costs.

    Tourism is the US’ biggest service export, contributing more than US$2.3 trillion to the economy and one in ten jobs. That’s a bigger contribution than manufacturing jobs, which account for about 8% of total US employment.

    As a driver of economic prosperity, tourism isn’t simply about leisure; it sustains local businesses, rural economies and millions of livelihoods.

    A double blow to the tourism experience

    While the decline in arrivals has been widely reported, the experience for those who still choose to visit is also likely to change.

    Tourism relies on global supply chains, from food to hotel amenities to rental car fleets. Trade war tariffs have raised input costs across the board. Hotels, restaurants, airlines and attractions are passing those higher costs onto customers.

    Miami Beach, Florida: Tourism accounts for one in ten American jobs.
    MDV Edwards/Shutterstock

    Labour shortages are intensifying the problem. Nearly 20% of the US hospitality workforce was born overseas. Cuts to seasonal work visas and heightened deportation fears have left many businesses struggling to find staff, compounding existing labour shortages.

    The burden is heaviest on small- and medium-sized enterprises, which form the bedrock of the US economy and play a central role in accommodation, dining and local tourism experiences.

    A quiet but costly erosion

    Tourism is not just a big part of the economy; it’s also a soft power, shaping how the world perceives a nation through its culture, values and hospitality.

    Every visitor who feels unwelcome, scrutinised or disappointed is not just a lost sale, but a lost connection.

    Research group Tourism Economics forecasts the US could lose up to US$10 billion in international travel spending in 2025 if current trends continue.

    And while manufacturing job announcements grab headlines, the slow erosion of America’s tourism brand may leave a longer, deeper scar on its culture, its communities and its place in the world.

    The Flight Centre downgrade is not an isolated warning. It is a symptom of a broader shift, one that risks turning visitors away for good.

    And for thousands of US businesses, workers and communities – and now Australian ones too – the losses may not be so easily shrugged off.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tourism to the US is tanking. Flight Centre is facing a $100m hit as a result – https://theconversation.com/tourism-to-the-us-is-tanking-flight-centre-is-facing-a-100m-hit-as-a-result-255498

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Coalition’s costings show some savings, but a larger deficit than Labor in the first two years

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra

    The Coalition’s policy costings have been released, just two days ahead of the federal election.

    The costings show the Coalition would run up a larger budget deficit than Labor in the first two years of government, but make a greater contribution to budget repair in years three and four.

    This arises because two big-spending Coalition policies – the fuel excise reduction and cost of living tax offset – are short term. Their impact on the deficit disappears after year two.

    Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor said the deficit would narrow by A$14 billion by the end of the fourth year.

    There are other spending initiatives – notably a significant increase in defence rising to $5.7 billion by the last year of the estimates, 2028-29. This will bring defence spending to 2.5% of gross domestic product (GDP).

    The vexed question of nuclear costings

    On the vexed question of nuclear power, the statement promises to fund the program primarily through equity investments in exchange for an ownership stake.

    These do not appear in the budget, on the premise that they fund commercial activities. This funding is estimated to total $118.2 billion by 2050 – well short of the $600 billion Labor has estimated the proposal will cost. There is no independent Parliamentary Budget Office costing of the number – it is based on Coalition modelling.

    Smaller sums are proposed for “community engagement” on nuclear technology ($87 million over four years) and a nuclear coordinating authority and training facility ($65 million). Both look to be in the right ballpark; they are however tiny compared with the costs of building nuclear reactors.

    Items to reduce the budget deficit include income tax increases by abolishing Labor’s top-up tax cut and public service reductions. In 2028-29 the tax increase raises $7.4 billion and public service cuts save $6.7 billion.

    A range of savings measures

    There are numerous other savings, including:

    • taxation of vaping products
    • reduction in a variety of environmental programs
    • reversing tax incentives for electric vehicles
    • cuts to the Housing Australia Future Fund
    • reduced spending on overseas aid
    • restoring the activity test for childcare
    • changing eligibility for several government welfare payment programs.

    It is a long and detailed list.

    Most of the savings appear achievable, with the notable exception of cuts to the public service. It will be close to impossible to achieve a saving of 41,000 public servants in Canberra alone without forced redundancies.

    The total Canberra public service workforce according to the Australian Public Service Commission is only around 68,000.

    Under the Coalition’s plan, some 41,000 public servant jobs in Canberra will be axed.
    Phillip Kraskoff/Shutterstock

    At the press conference announcing the costings, Opposition spokesperson Jane Hume said however the figure was 110,000.

    It is not clear where that number comes from. If the Coalition is using a different set of public service numbers to those published by the Australian Public Service Commission, it should identify where the extra come from. Off a larger base the savings would be difficult, but not completely infeasible.

    As with the Labor proposal to cut consultants, it still leaves the question of what will happen to the work those public servants were doing. Without changes to programs or activities, the Coalition will need to spend budget funds to get the work done.

    Too late for the early voters

    The costing release comes after more than 4.8 million Australians have already cast their vote. This is less than ideal for helping inform voters’ choices.

    There is precedent for releasing costings late. The Albanese opposition similarly released costings on the Thursday before polling day in 2022.

    This week, the Labor government released its costings on Monday.

    It is not clear what drives the practice of late release. One possibility is small target strategy: the less detail there is to criticise the more comfortable an opposition feels.

    There is so much detail in this Coalition announcement, and so many interest groups potentially offended, that the caution about its release may be justified.

    Savings previously announced by the Coalition include scrapping production tax credits for critical minerals and hydrogen and removing fringe benefit tax breaks for electric vehicles.

    The Coalition also plans to scrap some of the government’s off-budget funds and measures, including the Rewiring the Nation fund for electricity transmission and the Housing Australia Future Fund.

    Stephen Bartos was Parliamentary Budget Officer for the past three New South Wales state elections.

    – ref. The Coalition’s costings show some savings, but a larger deficit than Labor in the first two years – https://theconversation.com/the-coalitions-costings-show-some-savings-but-a-larger-deficit-than-labor-in-the-first-two-years-255592

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Election quiz: have you been paying attention?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Digital Storytelling Team, The Conversation

    We’re at the tail end of five weeks of intense campaigning for the federal election. The major and minor parties, as well as independents, have thrown a slew of policies at the Australian people, most of which we’ve catalogued in our Policy Tracker.

    There have also been memorable moments, a few fairly forgettable debates, and a whole lot of memes – both astute and cringeworthy. (Where does that Coalition “diss track” fit in? We’ll leave it to you to decide.)

    So, how closely have you been paying attention? It’s time to test your election campaign knowledge.

    Digital Storytelling Team does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Election quiz: have you been paying attention? – https://theconversation.com/election-quiz-have-you-been-paying-attention-255603

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The rise of right-wing Christian populism and its powerful impact on Australian politics

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Elenie Poulos, Adjunct Fellow, Macquarie University

    As Australians cast pre-poll votes in record numbers, it is not only political parties and candidates who are trying to influence votes.

    Australian Christian Right (ACR) groups have produced “scorecards” that rate party policies according to so-called Christian values. And they have organised candidate forums designed for Christian audiences.

    The Plymouth Brethren Christian Church has deployed hundreds of its members to pre-polling booths in marginal seats to campaign for the Coalition.

    Who is the Australian Christian Right?

    The ACR is a diverse movement of individuals, groups and churches that share traditional, fundamentalist approaches to the Bible and church teachings. It includes the Australian Christian Lobby, which has a long history of political activism in Australia and of engagement with the global Christian right.

    In our research we examined how the ACL has adopted right-wing populist rhetoric and what the effects might be on Australian politics.

    The ACR’s historical focus has been on abortion, euthanasia, sexuality and marriage. Now it also campaigns on human rights issues relating to gender, religious freedom and freedom of speech.

    These interests have seen the ACR connect to global right-wing networks, including the US Conservative Political Action Network (CPAC) and Jordan Peterson’s Alliance for Responsible Citizenship.

    For our research, we identified high-profile ACR actors and studied their publicly available texts. We found three intertwined themes of populist discourse. Each one has been given a Christian framing and adapted for the Australian context.

    “Saving Western civilisation”

    European populists have used this rhetoric to define the Muslim “other” and the threat Islam supposedly poses to Western democratic culture and values.

    Australia’s construction as a white British “outpost” gives this ideology its power. It has been used to inspire fear of immigrants.

    In Christian right rhetoric, “Western civilisation” is defined by Judeo-Christian values, which are purportedly under threat from an aggressive secularism that would rid society of its moral foundations and undermine the “family”.

    This polemic found fertile ground in 2017’s marriage equality debate. LGBTQ+ people and their allies were cast as anti-Christian activists who undermined Western tradition. A point made by former prime minister Tony Abbott when he addressed the anti-gay Alliance Defending Freedom in New York in 2018:

    the campaign for marriage in my country has mobilised thousands of new activists; and created a network that could be deployed to defend Western civilisation more broadly and the Judeo-Christian ethic against all that’s been undermining it.

    “Saving the moral community”

    The Australian Christian Right divides people into the traditional moral community that upholds family values, and the politically correct woke elites who allegedly threaten the Christian values that have shaped Australia.

    In opposing marriage equality, religious freedom became the ACR’s primary weapon of choice.

    Former Liberal Party senator and committed conservative Christian Amanda Stoker applies a right-wing populist approach to the movement’s opposition to transgender rights:

    The new elite — exclusive and “woke” — in fact has disdain for the traditional family, actively seeking to break it down with new genders, new family forms, and greater dependence on the state for the roles that family used to play in education, in sharing values, and in care for those in times of need.

    This rhetoric aims to position the ACR as arguing on behalf of all moral people who uphold traditional values, and all reasonable Australians who value freedom of religion.

    “Saving the people from racial division”

    The mythology of a “white Christian Australia” dates to the White Australia immigration policy, and remains a powerful force in Australian politics.

    In contemporary Australian populism, it has found form in the identification of Indigenous people as the subject of alleged preferential treatment. In contrast, non-Indigenous Australians are portrayed as victims suffering reverse racism. It has now been given a Christian right twist.

    During the referendum campaign for the Voice to Parliament, the ACR joined the far-right activist group Advance to argue the case for a “no” vote.

    In its opposition to constitutional recognition, the ACR adopted two themes of the “no” campaign: Indigenous people don’t need the Voice, and it would divide Australians on the basis of race. It then added a third by doubling down on the progress made in the marriage equality debate with “religious freedom” rhetoric.

    Lyle Shelton, head of Christians for Equality, claimed the Voice would be a “lever for anti-Christian” ideology.

    And in a collection of essays on the “religious” perspective of the Voice proposal, a number of authors, including ACR leader Dave Pellowe, argued the Voice would breach religious freedom by imposing Aboriginal religious beliefs and practices on the entire country.

    Dangerous consequences

    Since last Sunday’s leaders’ debate, the populist trope of “saving Australia from racial division” has been in plain sight. Consistent with his anti-Voice position, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton declared that acknowledgement of Country has been “overdone”.

    Christian political party Family First echoed his concerns, saying the ritual means:

    citizens don’t have equal standing in this nation.

    When the three thematic strands are woven together, the ACR’s populist vision for a “back-to-a-better” Australia becomes clear.

    The mutually reinforcing rhetoric of the populist right and the Christian right creates a distinctly Australian agenda that has dangerous implications for many people, especially those who are already marginalised.

    This article is based on research funded by the Australian Research Council Grant DP230100538 ‘Australian Spirituality: Wellness, Wellbeing and Risks’.

    Elenie Poulos is an ordained Minister in the Uniting Church in Australia and a non-executive director on the Board of Uniting NSW.ACT.

    This article is based on research funded by the Australian Research Council Grant DP230100538 ‘Australian Spirituality: Wellness, Wellbeing and Risks’.

    – ref. The rise of right-wing Christian populism and its powerful impact on Australian politics – https://theconversation.com/the-rise-of-right-wing-christian-populism-and-its-powerful-impact-on-australian-politics-255392

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    A YouGov MRP poll has Labor clearly winning a majority of seats in the federal election – 84 of the 150 seats in the House of Representatives.

    Labor also leads the Coalition by 53–47% in new polls from Redbridge and Spectre Strategy.

    Respondent-allocated preference flows from various pollsters do not imply a big Coalition gain from the 2022 election preference flow method.

    YouGov conducted a national MRP poll (multi-level modelling with post-stratification) from April 1–29 from an overall sample of 35,185 people. MRP polls are used to estimate the outcome in each House electorate using huge samples and modelling.

    YouGov’s central forecast is Labor winning 84 of the 150 lower house seats, an 18-seat majority. The Coalition would win 47 seats, the Greens three, independents 14 and others two.

    Since YouGov’s previous MRP poll that was taken from late February to late March, Labor is up nine seats, the Coalition down 13, the Greens up one and independents up three.

    And compared to the first YouGov MRP poll conducted before mid-February, Labor is up 18 seats and the Coalition down 26.

    The high forecast in the new MRP poll is 85 seats for Labor and 53 for the Coalition, while the low forecast is 76 for Labor (just enough for a majority) and 45 for the Coalition.

    On national voting intentions, Labor led the Coalition by 52.9–47.1% in this MRP poll, a 2.7-point gain for Labor since the previous MRP poll. Primary votes were 31.4% Labor (up 1.6 points), 31.1% Coalition (down 4.4), 12.6% Greens (down 0.6), 9.3% One Nation (steady), 8.1% independents (down 0.2) and 7.6% others (up 3.7).

    By 2022 election flows, Labor would lead the Coalition by 54.1–45.9%.

    Labor won the 2022 election by 52.1–47.9% from primary votes of 35.7% Coalition, 32.6% Labor, 12.3% Greens, 5.0% One Nation, 4.1% United Australia Party, 5.3% independents and 5.1% others.

    In this poll, the major parties combined are winning just 62.5% of the vote, down from 68.3% in 2022, which was already a record low for the combined major party vote.

    Unless the Coalition surges in the final days before Saturday’s election or the polls are overstating support for Labor, Labor will win the election. The graph below includes the Redbridge poll, but not the Spectre Strategy one.

    Labor takes 53–47% lead in Redbridge poll

    The final national poll by Redbridge and Accent Research for the News Corp tabloids, conducted April 24–29 from a sample of 1,011 people, gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition by both respondent and 2022 election flows.

    This is a one-point gain for Labor since the previous national Redbridge poll in early April.

    Primary votes were 34% Labor (up one), 34% Coalition (down two), 12% Greens (steady), 8% One Nation (up one) and 12% for all others (steady). One Nation’s preference flows to the Coalition had increased in this poll compared with 2022, but Labor’s flow increased from other sources.

    On type of government desired, 24% wanted a majority Labor government, 12% a Labor minority government with the Greens and 10% a Labor minority government with the teals (comprising a total of 46% who wanted Labor to govern).

    For the Coalition, 30% wanted a majority Coalition government, 2% a Coalition minority government with the Greens and 7% a Coalition minority government with the teals (a total of 39% who wanted a Coalition government).

    New pollster Spectre Strategy gives Labor 53–47% lead

    A national poll by new pollster Spectre Strategy, conducted April 24–28 from a sample of 2,000 people, also gave Labor a 53–47% lead over the Coalition by respondent preferences from primary votes of 34% Coalition, 31% Labor, 15% Greens, 10% One Nation and 11% for all others.

    By 2022 election flows, this poll would give Labor about a 52.5–47.5% lead over the Coalition.

    Women voters (71%) and men aged 18–34 (64%) both massively favoured Labor. Among voters aged 35–54, 61% of women supported Labor, compared to just 49% of men. Both men and women aged 55 and over favoured the Coalition by 58–42%.

    Anthony Albanese led Peter Dutton as preferred prime minister by 47–35%.

    DemosAU polls of Melbourne and Sydney seats

    DemosAU collectively polled the Labor-held seats of Dunkley, Bruce and Hawke in Melbourne from April 13–22 from a sample of 924 people. Labor led the Coalition by 53–47%. The party won the three seats by 56.5–43.5% in 2022.

    Primary votes in the poll were 32% Labor, 31% Liberal, 13% Greens, 10% One Nation and 14% for all others.

    DemosAU collectively polled the Labor-held seats of Parramatta, Reid and Werriwa in Sydney from April 13–27 from a sample of 905 people. Labor led the Coalition by 56–44%. The party won the three seats 54.7–45.3% in 2022.

    Primary votes in the poll were 36% Labor, 28% Liberal, 10% Greens, 5% Libertarian, 4% One Nation, 11% independents and 6% others.

    Preference flows

    Phillip Coorey wrote in the Australian Financial Review Tuesday that JWS polling of some seats had right-wing party preferences flowing at 80 or 90% rates to the Coalition. If this is true, the Coalition would do better than expected from current polls.

    But respondent preferences were used in the Redbridge poll above, giving the same result as the 2022 flow result. The Spectre respondent result was actually 0.5 of a point better for Labor than the previous election method.

    The polls I covered on Tuesday from Resolve, Essential and Morgan used respondent preferences. The Coalition was up one point in the Morgan poll compared to the previous election method and up 0.5 of a point in the Essential poll. There was no difference between the two methods in Resolve.

    JWS has given the Coalition very strong results in many of its seat polls. All other evidence suggests only a small gain for the Coalition from using respondent preferences as opposed to the 2022 election flows.

    Inflation increased in March quarter

    The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the March quarter inflation report on Wednesday. Headline inflation increased 0.9% in the March quarter, up from 0.2% in both December and September. This was the highest quarterly inflation since June 2024. Annual inflation was steady at 2.4% from December.

    Core inflation increased 0.7% in the March quarter, up from 0.5% in December. Annual core inflation dropped to 2.9% in March from 3.3% in December.

    The same principles with poll analysis can be applied to economic data. We’re most interested in the current polls, not in averaging these polls with those from months ago. The quarterly inflation numbers should be emphasised, not the annual numbers that include data from the June 2024 quarter.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Major YouGov poll has Labor easily winning a majority of seats in election – https://theconversation.com/major-yougov-poll-has-labor-easily-winning-a-majority-of-seats-in-election-255601

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Which medications are commonly prescribed for autistic people and why?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hiran Thabrew, Senior Lecturer in Child Psychiatry and Paediatrics, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Arlette Lopez/Shutterstock

    Autism is a neurodevelopmental condition. Someone may have social and communication differences, sensory issues and/or restricted, repetitive patterns of behaviour or interests.

    There has been increased awareness and an expanded definition of autism over the past couple of decades. Now around one in 40 people are thought to be autistic.

    Autistic people often have strengths such as focus, honesty and dedication. But due to a combination of genetic and autism-related factors, they also have higher rates of other health conditions.

    Common mental health conditions include anxiety, depression, attention-deficit and hyperactivity disorder or ADHD, obsessive-compulsive disorder, eating disorders and intellectual developmental disorder.

    Common physical health conditions include epilepsy, rheumatoid arthritis and heart disease.

    The core features of autism can’t and don’t need to be altered. But a range of talking therapies and medications can help manage these other health conditions.

    Commonly prescribed medications

    The increased awareness of autism and availability of new medications has seen increased rates of prescribing for autistic people and those with other chronic conditions over the past few decades. This is a trend we have seen internationally.

    The most common medications for mental health conditions among autistic people are:

    1. selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), such as fluoxetine (Prozac), for anxiety and depression

    2. low-dose antipsychotic medications, such as risperidone and aripiprazole, for reducing stress-related irritability and aggression

    3. stimulants such as methylphenidate (Ritalin) for ADHD

    4. melatonin and other sleep medications.

    The most common medications for physical health conditions among autistic people are:

    1. painkillers, such as paracetamol and ibuprofen, for pain and fever, especially in younger children. These are also the most commonly prescribed medication for non-autistic children

    2. antibiotics, such as amoxycillin, for suspected or confirmed infections (autistic children tend to have more infections)

    3. asthma and allergy medications, including salbutamol inhalers, loratadine and oral steroids (autistic people have similar rates of allergies to non-autistic people)

    4. laxatives, such as lactulose, for constipation. Autistic people are at increased risk of constipation due to limited food preferences, rigid toilet habits, and difficulty recognising when they need to use the toilet.

    Autistic people are prescribed a range of medications for physical and mental health conditions.
    CandyRetriever/Shutterstock

    Multiple medications, or not enough

    Prescribing multiple medications at the same time is known as polypharmacy. This has become more of an issue for autistic people in Aotearoa New Zealand and Australia.

    One study found autistic children and young people from Aotearoa New Zealand received a mean (average) four medications in one year (versus 2.9 medications for non-autistic people). Some 57% were prescribed three or more medications at a time.

    Medications may work as well for people with and without autism. However, autistic people are more likely to have side effects. This might be due to heightened sensory sensitivities and the way medications affect the nervous system.

    Polypharmacy increases the risk of medication interactions. It is also likely to contribute to autistic people’s higher chance of dying early. A 2024 study confirms this occurs at double the rate of non-autistic people.

    Possible reasons for polypharmacy include:

    • lack of agreement between doctors and clear guidelines for prescribing medication

    • insufficient access to non-medication options to manage health conditions

    • greater likelihood of being treated during crises. For instance, behaviour that escalates to the point of personal or property damage and family burnout may require medication to allow a child to stay at home.

    However, at times, autistic people may not receive appropriate medications. This may be because doctors do not have clear prescribing guidelines or vary in how they prescribe. It can also be because someone or their family are concerned about side effects.

    Sometimes there are concerns about medication side effects.
    Bee Bonnet/Shutterstock

    The right dose for the right time

    We should aim to use the appropriate medication for the appropriate period of time for the growing number of people diagnosed with autism.

    It’s essential prescribers have clearer prescribing guidance, aim for the lowest possible dose of medication, actively address polypharmacy and regularly monitor autistic people with a view to weaning medications as soon as possible.

    Earlier identification and support for autistic children and their families would reduce the chance of crises and stress-related health conditions.

    We need health services that can better meet the needs of autistic people. Flexible, tailored care should be provided in an environment that matches someone’s sensory needs. For instance, an environment should not be too bright or loud, or overstimulating. Ideally, this will have been designed with autistic people.

    We also need an adequately resourced health system to provide autistic people with timely, appropriate, safe and equitable care.

    Hiran Thabrew is a child and adolescent psychiatrist, paediatrician, autism researcher and New Zealand Chair for the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists. He has never received any pharmaceutical company sponsorship for his clinical or research activities.

    – ref. Which medications are commonly prescribed for autistic people and why? – https://theconversation.com/which-medications-are-commonly-prescribed-for-autistic-people-and-why-251715

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –