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Category: Features

  • MIL-Evening Report: I’m avoiding a hearing test because I don’t want chunky hearing aids. What are my options?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Katie Ekberg, Senior Lecturer, College of Nursing and Health Sciences, Flinders University

    Ksenia Shestakova/Shutterstock

    One in six Australians have hearing loss and, for most adults, hearing starts to decline from middle age onwards.

    Many of us, however, hesitate to seek help or testing for our hearing. Perhaps you’re afraid you’ll be told to wear hearing aids, and envision the large and bulky hearing aids you might have seen on your grandparents decades ago.

    In fact, hearing aids have changed a lot since then. They’re often now very small; some are barely noticeable. And hearing aids aren’t the only option available for people experiencing hearing loss.

    The earlier you do something about your hearing, the greater the likelihood that you can prevent further hearing decline.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    Why you shouldn’t ignore hearing loss

    Acquired hearing loss can have a serious impact on our life. It is associated with or can contribute to:

    • social isolation
    • loneliness
    • not being able to work as much, or at all
    • memory problems
    • trouble thinking clearly
    • conditions such as dementia.

    Hearing loss has also been associated with depression, anxiety and stress. A systematic review and meta-analysis found adults with hearing loss are 1.5 times more likely to experience depression than those without hearing loss.

    A large population study in the US found self-reported hearing loss was associated with:

    • higher levels of psychological distress
    • increased use of antidepressant and anti-anxiety medications, and
    • greater utilisation of mental health services.

    The good news is that doing something about your hearing loss can help you live a happier and longer life.

    So why don’t people get their hearing checked?

    Research has found adults with hearing loss typically wait ten years to seek help for their hearing.

    Less than a quarter of those who need hearing aids actually go ahead with them.

    Hearing declines slowly, so people may perceive their hearing difficulties aren’t concerning. They may feel they’re now used to not being able to hear properly, without fully appreciating the impact it’s having on their life.

    Some people harbour negative attitudes to hearing aids or don’t think they’ll actually help.

    Others may have overheard their partner, family or friends say negative things or make jokes about hearing aids, which can put people off getting their hearing checked.

    Stigma can play a big part.

    People often associate hearing loss with negative stereotypes such as ageing, weakness and “being different”.

    Our recent research found that around one in four people never tell anyone about their hearing loss because of experiences of stigma.

    Adults with hearing loss who experience stigma and choose not to disclose their hearing loss were also likely not to go ahead with hearing aids, we found.

    Modern hearing aids may be a lot smaller than you realise.
    Daisy Daisy/Shutterstock

    What are my options for helping my hearing?

    The first step in helping your hearing is to have a hearing check with a hearing care professional such as an an audiologist. You can also speak to your GP.

    If you’ve got hearing loss, hearing aids aren’t the only option.

    Others include:

    • other assistive listening devices (such as amplified phones, personal amplifiers and TV headphones)
    • doing a short course or program (such as the Active Communication Education program developed via University of Queensland researchers) aimed at giving you strategies to manage your hearing, for instance, in noisy environments
    • monitoring your hearing with regular checkups
    • strategies for protecting your hearing in future (such as wearing earplugs or earmuffs in loud environments, and not having headphone speakers too loud)
    • a cochlear implant (if hearing loss is severe)

    Hearing care professionals should take a holistic approach to hearing rehabilitation.

    That means coming up with individualised solutions based on your preferences and circumstances.

    What are modern hearing aids like?

    If you do need hearing aids, it’s worth knowing there are several different types. All modern hearing aids are extremely small and discrete.

    Some sit behind your ear, while others sit within your ear. Some look the same as air pods.

    Some are even completely invisible. These hearing aids are custom fitted to sit deep within your ear canal and contain no external tubes and wires.

    Some types of hearing aids are more expensive than others, but even the basic styles are discrete.

    In Australia, children and many adults are eligible for free or subsidised hearing services and many health funds offer hearing aid rebates as part of their extras cover.

    Despite being small, modern hearing aids have advanced technology including the ability to:

    • reduce background noise
    • direct microphones to where sound is coming from (directional microphones)
    • use Bluetooth so you can hear audio from your phone, TV and other devices directly in your hearing aids.

    When used with a smartphone, some hearing aids can even track your health, detect if you have fallen, and translate languages in real time.

    Modern hearing aids use Bluetooth so you can hear audio from your phone.
    Daisy Daisy/Shutterstock

    What should I do next?

    If you think you might be having hearing difficulties or are curious about the status of your hearing, then it’s a good idea to get a hearing check.

    The earlier you do something about your hearing, the greater the likelihood that you can prevent further hearing decline and reduce other health risks.

    And rest assured, there’s a suitable option for everyone.

    Katie Ekberg has previously received funding from the Hearing Industry Research Consortium, which funded research into stigma associated with hearing loss and hearing aids.

    Barbra Timmer is a part-time employee of Sonova AG, a global hearing care company. She was a Chief Investigator on a Hearing Industry Research Consortium grant that investigated the experiences of stigma for adults with hearing loss. She is the president of Audiology Australia.

    – ref. I’m avoiding a hearing test because I don’t want chunky hearing aids. What are my options? – https://theconversation.com/im-avoiding-a-hearing-test-because-i-dont-want-chunky-hearing-aids-what-are-my-options-250925

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Local newspapers are a lifeline in Ukraine, but USAID cuts may force many to close or become biased mouthpieces

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Galyna Piskorska, Associate Professor, Faculty of Journalism, Borys Grinchenko Kyiv University (Ukraine) and Honorary Principal Fellow at the Advanced Centre for Journalism, The University of Melbourne

    Three years into Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine, Ukrainian journalists are facing enormously difficult challenges to continue their work.

    Since Russia’s invasion in 2022, 40% of Ukrainian media outlets have been forced to close down, mostly due to the Russian occupation or financial difficulties caused by the war. Many of these are in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine.

    Ukrainian journalists and media outlets have also become targets. More than 100 media workers have been killed since the full-scale war began.

    Some, like 28-year-old journalist Viktoriya Roshchyna, were captured by Russian forces and died in brutal conditions in captivity. More than 30 media workers are still in Russian captivity.

    Others were killed by Russian missile and drone attacks, like Tetiana Kulyk, who died alongside her husband, a surgeon, after her home was hit by a drone in late February.

    For those journalists that remain, fatigue is a major issue. Many are emotionally exhausted. Some cannot cope and leave their jobs. The National Union of Journalists of Ukraine (NUJU) helps with seminars and psychological support.

    Despite the dangers, local media remains in high demand near the front lines of the war. These outlets have lost so much – advertising, subscribers and staff – but their journalists still have the passion and determination to continue their work documenting history.

    The role of local media on the front lines

    According to researchers who interviewed 43 independent local media outlets last year, the key challenges for newsrooms have not changed since the start of the war:

    • a shortage of employees (22% of respondents said this was a challenge in 2023, compared to 16% in 2022);

    • psychological stress (18% in 2023, 16% in 2022)

    • lack of funds (16% in both years).

    Often, journalists must perform different roles in their work, including being a driver, mail carrier and even a psychotherapist.

    Without working telephones or internet in areas near the front lines, print newspapers remain the only source of trusted information for many people. This includes up-to-date information on evacuation plans and humanitarian aid, as well as content not related to the war, such as public transport schedules and how to access medicines and necessary items for home repairs.

    Tetiana Velika, editor in chief of the Voice of Huliaipillia in southeastern Ukraine, was one of about 120 journalists who took part in a recent online conference organised by the National Union of Journalists of Ukraine to discuss the state of Ukraine’s media.

    She said media have remained connected with readers through both openness and authenticity. This includes having active social media networks, publishing journalists’ mobile phone numbers and allowing people to reach out anytime.

    Vasyl Myroshnyk, the editor in chief of Zorya, a newspaper in eastern Ukraine, described how he travelled 400 kilometres each week to deliver copies of his newspaper to even the most dangerous places.

    Svitlana Ovcharenko, editor of the newspaper Vpered in the city of Bakhmut, which was destroyed by Russian forces in the opening weeks of the war, said the paper has remained a lifeline for a displaced population.

    We have a unique situation — we don’t have a city. It’s virtual, it’s only on the map, it doesn’t physically exist. Not only is it destroyed, but it’s also been bombed with phosphorus bombs, and no one lives there.

    Ovcharenko, who now lives in the city of Odesa, said her newspaper’s readers are scattered all over the world. (There are 6,000 printed copies distributed each week across Ukraine.) The coverage focuses on how former Bakhmut residents have restarted their lives elsewhere, while also paying homage to the city’s past.

    Independent media is now at stake

    Funding remains a formidable challenge. Advertising revenue has dried up for many outlets, leaving international donors as the primary journalism funding source.

    Now, the Trump administration in the United States is gutting much of this funding through its dismantling of the US Agency for International Development (USAID). According to one estimate, 80% of Ukrainian media outlets received funding through USAID. As Oksana Romaniuk, director of the Institute of Mass Information, said:

    The problem is that almost everyone had grants. The question is that for some, these grants amounted to 100% of their income and they could only survive thanks to grants. These grants amounted to 40–60% for some, less for others.

    According to media researchers, without donor aid or state budget support in 2025, newspapers and magazines may decrease by a further 20% in Ukraine, while subscription circulation could drop by 25–30%.

    The heavy reliance on such funding has already led to the closure of some outlets, while others have been forced to launch public fundraising campaigns.

    Donor funding has also given Ukrainian outlets a measure of independence, allowing them to report on corruption within the Ukrainian government, for example. Many independent outlets are now vulnerable to being taken over by commercial or political entities. When these groups gain control, they can influence media coverage to benefit their own interests. This is known as “media capture”.

    Research shows how this has occurred in other post-conflict and developing countries where independent media outlets have been transformed into business entities more focused on profits and maintaining good relations with authorities than on producing quality journalism.

    This is a critical time for the future of Ukrainian media, to ensure it remains financially self-sufficient and free from the influence of both Russian propaganda and Ukrainian oligarchs. Without this funding, the preservation of Ukraine’s independent media and democracy remain under dire threat.

    Galyna Piskorska does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Local newspapers are a lifeline in Ukraine, but USAID cuts may force many to close or become biased mouthpieces – https://theconversation.com/local-newspapers-are-a-lifeline-in-ukraine-but-usaid-cuts-may-force-many-to-close-or-become-biased-mouthpieces-250917

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Scientific misconduct is on the rise. But what exactly is it?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nham Tran, Associate Professor, School of Biomedical Engineering, University of Technology Sydney

    PowerUp/Shutterstock

    German anaesthesiologist Joachim Boldt has an unfortunate claim to fame. According to Retraction Watch, a public database of research retractions, he is the most retracted scientist of all time. To date, 220 of his roughly 400 published research papers have been retracted by academic journals.

    Boldt may be a world leader, but he has plenty of competition. In 2023, more than 10,000 research papers were retracted globally – more than any previous year on record. According to a recent investigation by Nature, a disproportionate number of retracted papers over the past ten years have been written by authors affiliated with several hospitals, universities and research institutes in Asia.

    Academic journals retract papers when they are concerned that the published data is faked, altered, or not “reproducible” (meaning it would yield the same results if analysed again).

    Some errors are honest mistakes. However, the majority of retractions are associated with scientific misconduct.

    But what exactly is scientific misconduct? And what can be done about it?

    From fabrication to plagiarism

    The National Health and Medical Research Council is Australia’s primary government agency for medical funding. It defines misconduct as breaches of the Code for the Responsible Conduct of Research.

    In Australia, there are broadly eight recognised types of breaches. Research misconduct is the most severe.

    These breaches may include failure to obtain ethics approval, plagiarism, data fabrication, falsification and misrepresentation.

    This is what was behind many of Boldt’s retractions. He made up data for a large number of studies, which ultimately led to his dismissal from the Klinikum Ludwigshafen, a teaching hospital in Germany, in 2010.

    In another case, China’s He Jiankui was sentenced to three years in prison in 2019 for creating the world’s first genetically edited babies using the gene-editing technology known as CRISPR. His crime was that he falsified documents to recruit couples for his research.

    The “publish or perish” culture within academia fuels scientific misconduct. It puts pressure on academics to meet publication quotas. It also rewards them for greater research output, in the form of promotions, funding and recognition. And this can mean research quality is sacrificed for quantity.

    Honest mistakes

    But not all research misconduct is premeditated. Some is the result of honest mistakes made by scientists.

    For example, Sergio Gonzalez, a young scientist at the Institute for Neurosciences of Montpellier in France, mistakenly uploaded several wrong images to an academic paper and its supplementary material. This didn’t have any effect on the findings of the paper, which were based on the correct images.

    But it still represented a case of image duplication and misrepresentation of data. This lead to the journal retracting the paper and launching an investigation. The investigation concluded the breach was unintentional and resulted from the pressures of academic research.

    Fewer than 20% of all retractions are due to honest mistakes. Researchers usually contact the publisher to correct errors when they are detected, with no major consequences.

    The need for a national oversight body

    In many countries, an independent national body oversees research integrity.

    In the United Kingdom, this body is known as the Committee on Research Integrity. It is responsible for improving research integrity and addressing misconduct cases. Similarly, in the United States, the Office of Research Integrity handles allegations of research misconduct.

    In contrast, Australia lacks an independent body directly tasked with investigating research misconduct. There is a body known as the Australian Research Integrity Committee. But it only reviews the institutional procedures and governance of investigations to ensure they are conducted fairly and transparently – and with limited effectiveness. For example, last year it received 13 complaints, only five of which were investigated.

    Instead Australia relies on a self-regulation model. This means each university and research institute aligns its own policy with the Code for the Responsible Conduct of Research. Although this code originated in medical research, its principles apply across all disciplines.

    For example, in archaeology, falsifying an image or deliberately reporting inaccurate carbon dating results constitutes data fabrication. Another common breach is plagiarism, which can also be applied to all fields.

    But self-governance on integrity matters is fraught with problems.

    Investigations often lack transparency and are carried out internally, creating a conflict of interest. Often the investigative teams are under immense pressure to safeguard their institution’s reputation rather than uphold accountability.

    A 2023 report by the Australia Institute called for the urgent establishment of an independent, government-funded research integrity watchdog.

    The report recommended the watchdog have direct investigatory powers and that academic institutions be bound by its findings.

    The report also recommended the watchdog should release its findings publicly, create whistleblower protections, establish a proper appeals process and allow people to directly raise complaints with it.

    Research credibility is on the line

    The consequences of inadequate oversight are already evident.

    One of the biggest research integrity scandals in Australian history involved Ali Nazari, an engineer from Swinburne University. In 2022 an anonymous whistleblower alleged Nazari was part of an international research fraud cartel involving multiple teams.

    Investigations cast doubt on the validity of the 287 papers Nazari and the other researchers had collectively published. The investigations uncovered numerous violations, including 71 instances of falsified results, plagiarism and duplication, and 208 instances of self-plagiarism.

    Similarly, Mark Smyth, formerly of the Queensland Institute of Medical Research, fabricated research data to support grant applications and clinical trials. An independent inquiry concluded he used his reputation, status and authority to bully and intimidate junior colleagues.

    If Australia had a independent research integrity body, there would be a clear governance structure and an established and transparent pathway for reporting breaches at a much earlier stage.

    Timely intervention would help reduce further breaches through swift investigation and corrective action. Importantly, consistent governance across Australian institutions would help ensure fairness. It would also reduce bias and uphold the same standards across all misconduct cases.

    The call for an independent research integrity watchdog is long overdue.

    Only through impartial oversight can we uphold the values of scientific excellence, protect public trust, and foster a culture of accountability that strengthens the integrity of research for all Australians.

    Nham Tran has received funding from Australian Research Council.

    – ref. Scientific misconduct is on the rise. But what exactly is it? – https://theconversation.com/scientific-misconduct-is-on-the-rise-but-what-exactly-is-it-247352

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Less than 1% of the world’s biggest radio telescope is complete – but its first image reveals a sky dotted with ancient galaxies

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Randall Wayth, SKA-Low Senior Commissioning Scientist and Adjunct Associate Professor, Curtin Institute of Radio Astronomy, Curtin University

    The first image from an early working version of the SKA-Low telescope, showing around 85 galaxies. SKAO

    Part of the world’s biggest mega-science facility – the SKA Observatory – is being built in outback Western Australia.

    After decades of planning, countless hours of work, and more than a few setbacks, an early working version of the telescope has captured its first glimpse of the sky.

    Using 1,024 of what will eventually be 131,072 radio antennas, the first SKA-Low image shows a tiny sliver of sky dotted with ancient galaxies billions of light-years from Earth.

    This first snapshot shows the system works, and will improve dramatically in the coming months and years – and starts a new chapter in our exploration of the universe.

    A glimpse of the universe

    The SKA-Low telescope is currently under construction on Wajarri Yamaji Country in Western Australia, around 600 kilometres north of Perth. Together with the SKA-Mid telescope (under construction in South Africa), the two telescopes will make up the world’s largest and most sensitive radio observatory.

    SKA-Low will consist of thousands of antennas spread across a vast area. It is designed to detect low-frequency radio signals from some of the most distant and ancient objects in the universe.

    The first image, made using just 1,024 of the planned 131,000 antennas, is remarkably clear, confirming that the complex systems for transmitting and processing data from the antennas are working properly. Now we can move on to more detailed observations to analyse and verify the telescope’s scientific output.

    Bright galaxies, billions of years old

    The image shows a patch of the sky, approximately 25 square degrees in area, as seen in radio waves.

    Twenty-five square degrees is an area of sky that would fit 100 full Moons. For comparison, it would be about the area of sky that a small apple would cover if you held it at arm’s length.

    The first image from an early working version of the SKA-Low telescope, showing around 85 galaxies.
    SKAO

    The dots in the image look like stars, but are actually some of the brightest galaxies in the universe. These galaxies are billions of light-years away, so the galaxies we are seeing now were emitting this light when the universe was half its current age.

    They are so bright because each of these distant galaxies contains a supermassive black hole. Gas orbiting around black holes is very hot and moves very quickly, emitting energy in X-rays and radio waves. SKA-Low can detect these radio waves that have travelled billions of light years across the universe to reach Earth.

    The world’s largest radio telescope

    SKA-Low and SKA-Mid are both being built by the SKAO, a global project to build cutting-edge telescopes that will revolutionise our understanding of the universe and deliver benefits to society. (SKA stands for “square kilometre array”, describing the initial estimated collecting area of all the antennas and radio dishes put together.)

    My own involvement in the project began in 2014. Since then I, along with many local and international colleagues, have deployed and verified several prototype systems on the path to SKA-Low. To now be part of the team that is making the first images with the rapidly growing telescope is extremely satisfying.

    A complex system with no moving parts

    SKA-Low will be made up of 512 aperture arrays (or stations), each comprised of 256 antennas.

    Unlike traditional telescopes, aperture arrays have no moving parts, which makes them easier to maintain. The individual antennas receive signals from all directions at once and – to produce images – we use complex mathematics to combine the signals from each individual antenna and “steer” the telescope.

    The SKA-Low telescope uses arrays of radio antennas (called stations) to create images of the universe.
    SKAO / Max Alexander

    The advantages and flexibility of aperture arrays come at the cost of complex signal processing and software systems. Any errors in signal timing, calibration or processing can distort the final image or introduce noise.

    For this reason, the successful production of the first image is a key validation – it can only happen if the entire system is working.

    The shape of the universe and beyond

    As SKA-Low grows, it will see more detail. Simulations show the full telescope may detect up to 600,000 galaxies in the same patch of sky shown in the first test image.
    SKAO

    Once completed, SKA-Low promises to transform our understanding of the early universe.

    The antennas of the full telescope will be spread across an area approximately 70 kilometres in diameter, making it the most sensitive low-frequency radio array ever built.

    This unprecedented sensitivity to low-frequency radio signals will allow scientists to detect the faint signals from the first stars and galaxies that formed after the Big Bang – the so-called “cosmic dawn”. SKA-Low will be the first radio telescope capable of imaging this very early period of our universe.

    It will also help map the large-scale structure of the universe. We expect the telescope will also provide new insights into cosmic magnetism, the behaviour of interstellar gas, and the mysterious nature of dark matter and dark energy.

    The sensitivity and resolution of SKA-Low gives it a huge discovery potential. Seven out of the top 10 discoveries from the Hubble Space Telescope were not part of the original science motivation. Like the HST, SKA-Low promises to be a transformative telescope. Who knows what new discoveries await?

    What’s next

    SKA-Low’s commissioning process will ramp up over the course of the year, as more antenna arrays are installed and brought online. With each additional station, the sensitivity and resolution of the telescope will increase. This growth will also bring greater technical challenges in handling the growing complexity and data rates.

    By the end of 2025, SKA-Low is expected to have 16 working stations. The increased volume of output data at this stage will be the next major test for the telescope’s software systems.

    By the end of 2026, the array is planned to expand to 68 working stations at which point it will be the the most sensitive low-frequency radio telescope on Earth.

    This phase will be the next big test of the end-to-end telescope system. When we get to this stage, the same field you see in the image above will be able to comprehensively map and detect up to 600,000 galaxies. I’m personally looking forward to helping bring it together.

    Randall Wayth does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Less than 1% of the world’s biggest radio telescope is complete – but its first image reveals a sky dotted with ancient galaxies – https://theconversation.com/less-than-1-of-the-worlds-biggest-radio-telescope-is-complete-but-its-first-image-reveals-a-sky-dotted-with-ancient-galaxies-252382

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Rwanda has moved people into model ‘green’ villages: is life better there?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa Allyn Dale, Director of the MA in Climate and Society program at the Columbia Climate School, Columbia University

    After the devastating 1994 genocide, Rwandans returning from the violence established homes and began farming where they could find land.

    Since then, the Rwandan government has aimed to bring people scattered across rural parts of the country into grouped settlements which they have called “model villages”. These are intended to provide extra support for highly vulnerable residents, such as the homeless and those who are living in “high risk zones” – areas prone to floods, drought and mudslides, and which are likely to be affected by climate change in the future.

    Rwanda has a population of 14.5 million. An estimated 62,000 rural families have been resettled into 14,815 villages, of which 253 are considered “model villages”. Some of them are considered “green”, because they use solar power and biofuels as energy sources. Rainwater harvesting, tree planting, and terraced vegetable plots are other features of the green, environmentally friendly model villages.

    We conducted a study to understand the impact of relocating rural communities from high risk zones where they face threats from a changing climate, such as erratic rainfall, drought, floods and landslides. We looked at two lake island communities who were experiencing floods. They also suffered a lack of health and education services and security problems from being too close to an unguarded border.

    We used the Rweru Model Green Village as a case study. Based on our interviews with families who were moved there, we found that relocating people can be double-edged. On the positive side, resettlement increased access to modern facilities and social services. On the downside, people found it hard to earn a living. They lacked access to natural and financial capital and had to adapt to a different climate.

    The resettlement programme overall is now understood to be part of the government of Rwanda’s approach to climate change adaptation. However, our findings suggest that this should be done with care, considering factors like community expectations and government development plans.

    Why people were moved

    The Rweru Model Green Village was set up in 2016 to house residents from two nearby islands on Lake Rweru, Sharita and Mazane. Located along the southern border with Burundi, these islands were home to generations of Rwandans. But they lived in relative isolation without access to services like education, healthcare or markets.

    We interviewed and surveyed people from 64 households in the Rweru village. At the time of our research, 1,777 people had been moved in, all from Sharita and Mazane islands.



    Read more:
    Rising risks of climate disasters mean some communities will need to move – we need a national conversation about relocation now

    Participants said fishing had been a way of life on the islands, providing them with a consistent source of protein. Beans, potatoes, cassava and sorghum grew successfully. Even relatively impoverished households said they had enough food to live on: 55% said the productivity of the land was high.

    However, 84% of respondents also described an isolated life without services. As one put it:

    we were cut off from the rest of the world.

    Many mentioned the lack of drinking water, roads and electricity as a major drawback to living on the islands. While primary school was available, older children could only get to a secondary school by a two hour boat ride. Some dropped out of school.

    Healthcare was absent, and respondents described harrowing journeys to find medical attention. As one woman said:

    When we were still there in Sharita, a woman could want to deliver a baby but getting a boat it takes a long time, a woman can even lose her life waiting.

    The boat rides were dangerous because of hippos in the lake, malaria-carrying mosquitoes, and the risk of drowning.

    Others said that people from Burundi could access the islands easily and sometimes assaulted or killed the island residents. About 76% of the people we interviewed described their lives before relocation as dangerous. Residents had been asking to be resettled for some time because of these problems.

    One of the driving forces for organising rural life into model villages is to enhance the capacity of residents to adapt to changes, including climate impacts such as the increased risks of flooding, drought or landslides. In that way, the model green village programme is also understood to have climate change adaptation elements.

    The pros and cons after resettlement

    After resettlement, most respondents described improvements in their overall quality of life. They were less exposed to floods, which they’d experienced on the islands. They had improved access to healthcare, social services and quality housing.

    Many (66%) described the housing they received as the most important advantage of their new lives:

    Above all, the nicest thing I was given was the house.

    They also described clean water (26%), markets (50%), healthcare (55%), schools (50%) and electricity (24%) as benefits of living in the new model village. It was the first time they’d been able to manage livestock, having only had chickens on the islands. Their children were benefiting from having milk.



    Read more:
    Climate change will force up to 113m people to relocate within Africa by 2050

    Some residents appreciated having a mattress for the first time; 50% indicated furniture and kitchen equipment as advantages. About 34% of respondents were pleased that they no longer needed to travel by boat.

    They also felt safer. But despite these positive outcomes, they said they were poorer and had less food. Unlike the islands, the micro-climate inland was very hot, with little rain and increasing drought.

    Most people we interviewed (55%) said their new, smaller plots of land were “infertile”, “unproductive” or “barren”. They couldn’t fish or grow enough fruit or vegetables. One person said many of the elderly people who were moved only ate one meal a day in the village “and others are starving completely”.

    Increased hunger caused children to miss school:

    Sometimes I cannot put food on the table, my son sleeps with an empty stomach and he cannot go to school the next day.

    The future of model green villages

    The Rwandan government plans to continue setting up model villages, and wants these to be sustainable for many years.

    More research is needed to determine whether living in a model village provides young people with a better quality of life. The government will also need to address the economic challenges, food insecurity and welfare needs of residents in the new villages.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Rwanda has moved people into model ‘green’ villages: is life better there? – https://theconversation.com/rwanda-has-moved-people-into-model-green-villages-is-life-better-there-250975

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Christian nationalism in the U.S. is eerily reminiscent of ‘dominionist’ reformers in history

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gary K. Waite, Professor Emeritus, Early Modern European History, University of New Brunswick

    In this etching from Dutch theologian Lambertus Hortensius’ 1614 book ‘Van den oproer der weder-dooperen,’ Anabaptists warn the residents of Amsterdam of the coming vengeance of Christ in 1535. (Lambertus Hortensius)

    Far-right politics and Christian nationalism are on the rise in North America and Europe, leading to growing concerns about what it means for human rights and democracy.

    As an historian of the demonizing language of the 16th century, I have been watching current events, around QAnon and Christian nationalist support for United States President Donald Trump with considerable trepidation.

    Why? Because we’ve seen before what happens when religious groups use government to force their beliefs and morality upon society.

    Religion scholar Bradley Onishi writes that the Christian nationalist movement known as the “New Apostolic Reformation (NAR) is one of the most influential and dangerous Christian nationalist movements in the United States” and has become “a global phenomenon.”



    Read more:
    New Apostolic Reformation evangelicals see Trump as God’s warrior in their battle to win America from satanic forces and Christianize it

    This movement has reshaped its theology in ways eerily reminiscent of the prophets of the Anabaptist kingdom of Münster of the 1530s in present-day Germany. As my scholarship has examined, those religious dissenters faced polemical demonizing by religious authorities and faced violent oppression, via torture and execution.

    Today’s Christian nationalists, however, have faced no such maltreatment. Yet, like persecuted dissenters of the 1530s, they claim divine authority to remake society.

    The Anabaptists of Münster

    A portrait of Jan van Leiden, a leader of the Münster Anabaptists, by Dutch artist Jan Muller circa 1615.
    (The Metropolitan Museum of Art)

    The 16th-century Reformation had originally broken down the religious state of medieval Europe. However, Protestant leaders like Martin Luther and John Calvin quickly saw the advantage of having civic governments force conformity to their reforms, and punish dissent.

    Among those targeted were the small groups of dissenters whose Biblical interpretation, congruent with the life and teaching of Jesus, led them to follow the Gospel’s command to preach and baptize “on confession of faith” and a person’s commitment to discipleship.“ By contrast, reformers, and the church they sought to reform, “practised and required infant baptism for the entire population (usually required by law).”

    Derisively called Anabaptists, the small group of dissenters also refused to participate in government. For these practices they were persecuted, with hundreds horrifically tortured and executed.

    Driven to desperation, some Anabaptists in northwestern Europe and northern Germany looked for hope to the Westphalian city of Münster in present-day Germany.

    Here the city’s major preacher, Bernhard Rothmann, was moving the city into the Reformed Protestant camp, rather than that of their Lutheran neighbours. When large numbers of Anabaptist refugees arrived in 1533, they won the civic election and Münster became an Anabaptist city.

    The Catholic bishop of Münster had other ideas. Hiring Catholic and Lutheran troops, he laid siege to the city and things became desperate. Enraged by persecution, the Münsterite Anabaptists changed their image of Jesus from the peacemaker of the Gospels to the apocalyptic Jesus of Revelation.

    The Jesus of Anabaptist Münster

    Rothmann’s original theology was like what Calvin would develop for Geneva. What made the two cities distinct was the charismatic leadership of the Dutch Anabaptist prophet Jan Matthijs, who predicted that Christ would return on Easter Day, 1534, adding both urgency and confidence in applying God’s directives.

    Now besieged, Matthijs and Rothmann took their reform movement in a more “dominionist” direction, meaning they believed their movement should take moral, spiritual and religious control over society. They expelled anyone who refused to co-operate.

    When Christ did not return on Easter 1534 and Matthijs was killed by the besiegers, his successor, Jan van Leiden, simply postponed Christ’s return to the following Easter and declared himself a semi-divine king.

    He also abandoned the message of the Jesus of the Sermon on the Mount in favour of the vengeful Jesus of the Book of Revelation. Rothmann justified this in a tract which I translated as:

    “It was … the intention of our hearts in our baptism, that we would suffer for Christ, whatever men did to us. But it has pleased the Lord … that now we and all Christians at this time may not only ward off the violence of the godless with the sword, but also, that he has put the sword into our hands to avenge all injustice and evil over the entire world.”

    King van Leiden sent people out to spread this revolutionary message and take over other cities. This led to several militant episodes, including in Amsterdam, where in February 1535, 11 Anabaptists paraded naked through the streets proclaiming the “naked truth” of God’s anger.

    Others delivered the message while waving swords. Finally, in May, 1535 about 40 Anabaptists captured Amsterdam’s city hall. All were arrested and executed. These were the actions of desperate people inspired by their prophets’ assurances of divine authority. When, however, Münster fell at the end of June 1535, the result was massive disillusionment, a return to non-violence and increased persecution.

    This etching (circa 1629-1652) by Dutch artist Pieter de Hooch depicts Anabaptists walking naked through the streets of Amsterdam after being inspired to remove and burn their clothes in February 1535.
    (Rijksmuseum)

    Divine authority to remake society?

    This transformation of the Münster Anabaptists into vengeful militants reminds me of the New Apostolic Reformation (NAR). As Matthew D. Taylor has revealed, this movement sees itself as fighting a “spiritual battle” against the demonic forces opposing Trump; some participated (non-violently) in the Jan. 6, 2020 riot.

    Taylor concludes with a warning that the NAR act as “spiritual warmongers, constantly expanding the arena of spiritual warfare, mapping it onto geographical territory and divisive politics in a deeply destabilizing and antidemocratic manner.” It is as if we are listening to Rothmann’s fiery sermons again.

    One difference, of course, is that the NAR folk are not under persecution, despite what they might claim. Taylor describes this as “the Evangelical Persecution Neurosis.”

    Three of the NAR’s principle components are:

    1. A charismatic approach to Christian life that affirms God speaks directly to them. They see themselves as biblical prophets who speak God’s commands which must be implemented regardless of social impact.

    2. The Evangelical Christian belief of living in the end-times on the eve of Jesus Christ’s return for judgment. NAR preachers proclaim that while Jesus in the Gospels taught to “turn the other cheek,” they now follow the judgmental Jesus of the apocalyptical Book of Revelation and mobilize a struggle with Satan to rely on scapegoat ideology.

    3. Derived from a group of Reformed or Calvinist theologians called “Christian Reconstructionists,” and building on Calvin’s theology of the “godly city,” they pursue a broader “dominionist” rationale to take over all of society for Christ. Believing one is living in the end-times means that society must be taken over and cleansed immediately, adding to urgency.



    Read more:
    I went to CPAC as an anthropologist to see how Trump supporters are feeling − for them, a ‘golden age’ has begun

    Believers, drawing on these three beliefs, derive an assurance they speak with God’s voice. This was the case for the Münster Anabaptists, and now similarly, for the NAR. As the example of the Münster Anabaptists suggests, we’ve seen this many times before throughout history, and it doesn’t end well.

    A 1685 engraving by Dutch poet and engraver Jan Luyken depicting the 1571 burning of Anabaptist woman Anneken Hendriks from Thieleman van Braght’s 1660 book ‘The Bloody Theatre or Martyrs Mirror.’
    (Allard Pierson Museum)

    There have been many more recent episodes of Christian groups claiming divine authority to remake society. Like Jan van Leiden, those in the NAR or who concur with its theology have recast the Jesus of the Gospels, and U.S. President Donald Trump, in apocalyptic terms.

    U.S. congresswoman Lauren Boebert, for example, who has been described as a Christian nationalist and is a strong gun advocate, is among those who say God anointed Trump to the presidency.

    This gives a gloss of divine approval for Trump’s autocratic goals. As authoritarianism and Christian nationalism rises, the fusion of charismatic authority with Reformed Protestant certitude and end-times fervour continues to attract followers.

    Gary K. Waite has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. Christian nationalism in the U.S. is eerily reminiscent of ‘dominionist’ reformers in history – https://theconversation.com/christian-nationalism-in-the-u-s-is-eerily-reminiscent-of-dominionist-reformers-in-history-250600

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bug drugs: bacteria-based cancer therapies are finally overcoming barriers

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Justin Stebbing, Professor of Biomedical Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University

    Lightspring/Shutterstock

    Imagine a world where bacteria, typically feared for causing disease, are turned into powerful weapons against cancer. That’s exactly what some scientists are working on. And they are beginning to unravel the mechanisms for doing so, using genetically engineered bacteria to target and destroy cancer cells.

    Using bacteria to fight cancer dates back to the 1860s when William B. Coley, often called the father of immunotherapy, injected bacteria called streptococci into a young patient with inoperable bone cancer. Surprisingly, this unconventional approach led to the tumour shrinking, marking one of the first examples of immunotherapy.

    William Coley (centre), a pioneer of bug drugs.
    Wikimedia Commons

    Over the next few decades, as head of the Bone Tumour Service at Memorial Hospital in New York, Coley injected over 1,000 cancer patients with bacteria or bacterial products. These products became known as Coley’s toxins.

    Despite this early promise, progress in bacteria-based cancer therapies has been slow. The development of radiation therapy and chemotherapy overshadowed Coley’s work, and his approach faced scepticism from the medical community.

    However, modern immunology has vindicated many of Coley’s principles, showing that some cancers are indeed very sensitive to an enhanced immune system, an approach we can often capture to treat patients.

    How bacteria-based cancer therapies work

    These therapies take advantage of the unique ability of certain bacteria to proliferate inside tumours. The low oxygen, acidic and dead tissue in the area around the cancer – the tumour “microenvironment” (an area I am especially interested in) – create an ideal niche for some bacteria to thrive. Once there, bacteria can, in theory, directly kill tumour cells or activate the body’s immune responses against the cancer. However, several difficulties have hindered the widespread adoption of this approach.

    Safety concerns are paramount because introducing live bacteria into a patient’s body can cause harm. Researchers have had to carefully attenuate (weaken) bacterial strains to ensure they don’t damage healthy tissue. Additionally, controlling the bacteria’s behaviour within the tumour and preventing them from spreading to other parts of the body has been difficult.

    Bacteria live inside us, known as the microbiome, and treatments, disease and, of course, new bacteria that are introduced can interfere with this natural environment. Another significant hurdle has been our incomplete understanding of how bacteria interact with the complex tumour microenvironment and the immune system.

    Questions remain about how to optimise bacterial strains for maximum anti-tumour effects while minimising side-effects. We’re also not sure of the dose – and some approaches give one bacteria and others entire colonies and multiple bug species together.

    Recent advances

    Despite these challenges, recent advances in scientific fields, such as synthetic biology and genetic engineering, have breathed new life into the field. Scientists can now program bacteria with sophisticated functions, such as producing and delivering specific anti-cancer agents directly within tumours.

    This targeted approach could overcome some limitations of traditional cancer treatments, including side-effects and the inability to reach deeper tumour tissues.

    Emerging research suggests that bacteria-based therapies could be particularly promising for certain types of cancer. Solid tumours, especially those that have a poor blood supply and are resistant to conventional therapies, might benefit most from this approach.

    Colon cancer, ovarian cancer and metastatic breast cancer are among the high-mortality cancers that researchers are targeting with these innovative therapies.
    One area we have the best evidence for is that “bug drugs” may help the body fight cancer by interacting with routinely used immunotherapy drugs.

    Recent studies have shown encouraging results. For instance, researchers have engineered strains of E coli bacteria to deliver small tumour protein fragments to immune cells, effectively training them to recognise and attack cancer cells. In lab animals, this approach has led to tumour shrinkage and, sometimes, complete elimination.

    E coli have been used to deliver cancer tumour fragments to immune cells.
    Kateryna Kon/Shutterstock

    By exploiting these mechanisms, bacterial therapies can selectively colonise tumours while largely sparing healthy tissues, potentially overcoming limitations of conventional cancer treatments.

    Ultimately, we need human trials to give us the answer about whether this works, by controlling or eradicating cancer and, of course, if there are side-effects, its toxicity.

    In one study I worked on, we showed that part of a bacterial cell wall, when injected into patients, could safely help control melanoma – the most deadly form of skin cancer.

    While we’re still in the early stages, the potential of bacteria-based cancer therapies is becoming increasingly clear. As our understanding of tumour biology and bacterial engineering improves, we may be on the cusp of a new era in cancer treatment.

    Bacterial-based cancer therapies take advantage of several unique mechanisms to specifically target tumour cells. As a result, these therapies could offer a powerful new tool in our arsenal against cancer, working in synergy with existing treatments like immunotherapy and chemotherapy. And, as we look to the future, bacteria-based cancer therapies represent a fascinating convergence of historical insight and groundbreaking science.

    While challenges remain, the progress in this field offers hope for more effective, targeted treatments that could significantly improve outcomes for cancer patients.

    Justin Stebbing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Bug drugs: bacteria-based cancer therapies are finally overcoming barriers – https://theconversation.com/bug-drugs-bacteria-based-cancer-therapies-are-finally-overcoming-barriers-251278

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Stop waiting for a foreign hero: NZ’s supermarket sector needs competition from within

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lisa M. Katerina Asher, Retail Academic Researcher, PhD Candidate & Sessional Academic, University of Sydney

    non c/Shutterstock

    New Zealand’s concentrated supermarket sector is back in the spotlight after Finance Minister Nicola Willis said she was open to offering “VIP treatment” to a third international player willing to create competition.

    However, New Zealanders hoping for a foreign hero to break up the current supermarket concentration will be waiting a long time.

    It could take five years or more for an international brand such as Aldi to enter New Zealand and establish a nationwide chain. It is a risky bet. So far, no foreign operator has expressed interest publicly in setting up shop here on a national scale.

    To create more competition in the supermarket sector, the New Zealand government needs go back to where the issues began: allowing multiple companies to merge until there were few alternatives for shoppers.

    Breaking up two of the major entities in the sector would be a relatively quick way to reintroduce competition and improve affordability for everyone.

    The rise in concentration

    The current state of New Zealand’s supermarket sector – dominated by Woolworths (formerly Countdown), Foodstuffs North Island and Foodstuffs South Island – is a result of successive mergers and acquisitions along two tracks.

    The first was Progressive Enterprises’ (owner of Foodtown, Countdown and Five Guys banners) purchase of Woolworths New Zealand (which also owned Big Fresh and Price Chopper) in 2001.

    Progressive Enterprises was sold to Woolworths Australia, its’ current owner, in 2005. In less than 25 years, six brands owned by multiple companies were whittled down to a single brand, Woolworths.

    The second was the concentration of the “Foodstuffs cooperatives” network. This network once included four regional cooperatives and multiple banners including Mark’n Pak and Cut Price, as well as New World, PAK’nSave and Four Square.

    The decision of the four legally separate cooperatives to include “Foodstuffs” in their company name blurred the lines between them. The companies looked similar but remained legally separate.

    As a result of mergers, these four separate companies have now become Foodstuffs North Island – franchise limited share company, operating according to “cooperative principlies” and Foodstuffs South Island, a legal cooperative.

    In a recent failed application to merge into one company, Foodstuffs North Island and Foodstuffs South Island admitted to sharing information between the two legally separate companies. They are also not meaningfully competing with each other as they operate in regions which do not overlap.

    Breaking up the current players to compete

    While the Commerce Commission declined the clearance for Foodstuffs North Island Limited and Foodstuffs South Island to merge into one single national grocery entity, more can be done to drive competition in the supermarket sector.

    The fastest option would be to break up the “Foodstuffs” companies into smaller entities, with the breakaway and re-branding of PAK’nSave across both islands.

    But to do this the government would need to update legislation to allow parliament to force divestiture, consistent with the United Kingdom and the United States.

    This would allow New Zealand to go from three supermarket companies to five or more in a short period of time.

    Reducing the power dependency of suppliers and customers on the current companies would also reduce barriers to entry for overseas brands.

    Global players will take too long

    Breaking up the local dominant supermarket players is simply faster, and more straightforward, than waiting for a foreign company to enter New Zealand. It takes time and is expensive to build scale with stores. It can also be risky, as recent history in Australia shows.

    Aldi Australia, a favourite of New Zealand consumers hoping for a global alternative, took 20 years to reach scale as a third major player in that country. Originally from Germany, Aldi entered Australia as a declining brand – Franklins – left the market.

    In 2017, another German company, Kaufland, announced ambitious plans to enter the Australian market, starting with 20 stores. It purchased its first site in 2018 and hired 200 staff. However, the company abandoned launch plans in 2020 and divested completely from the market.

    Additionally, it took US-based bulk retail store Costco three years – and NZ$100 million – to go from announcing its plans for one New Zealand store to open. The retailer has hinted at opening a second location but this has not yet happened.

    In the end, the solution to New Zealand’s concentrated supermarket sector needs to come from within. Breaking up the power held by the dominant supermarket companies will allow prices to come down more quickly than waiting for a foreign supermarket to arrive.

    The government allowed the market to become concentrated, so it can now fix it. An international brand is not the hero – local, New Zealand-owned competition is.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Stop waiting for a foreign hero: NZ’s supermarket sector needs competition from within – https://theconversation.com/stop-waiting-for-a-foreign-hero-nzs-supermarket-sector-needs-competition-from-within-251910

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  • MIL-Evening Report: What is the rules-based order? How this global system has shifted from ‘liberal’ origins − and where it could be heading next

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Latham, Professor of Political Science, Macalester College

    Global order? Put a pin in it. Getty Images

    The phrase “international rules-based order” has long been a fixture in global politics.

    Western leaders often use it to describe a framework of rules, norms and institutions designed to guide state behavior. Advocates argue that this framework has provided the foundation for decades of stability and prosperity, while critics question its fairness and relevance in today’s multipolar world.

    But what exactly is the international rules-based order, when did it come about, and why do people increasingly hear about challenges to it today?

    The birth of a universal vision

    The rules-based international order, initially known as the “liberal international order,” emerged from the devastation of World War II. The vision was ambitious and universal: to create a global system based on liberal democratic values, market capitalism and multilateral cooperation.

    At its core, however, this project was driven by the United States, which saw itself as the unmatched leader of the new order.

    The idea was to replace the chaos of great power politics and shifting alliances with a predictable world governed by shared rules and norms.

    Central to this vision was the establishment of institutions such as the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. These institutions, alongside widely accepted norms and formalized rules, aimed to promote political cooperation, the peaceful resolution of disputes, and economic recovery for countries damaged by war.

    However, the vision of a truly universal liberal international order quickly unraveled. As the Cold War set in, the world split into two competing blocs. The Western bloc, led by the United States, adhered to the principles of the liberal international order.

    Meanwhile, the Soviet-led communist bloc established a parallel system with its own norms, rules and institutions. The Warsaw Pact provided military alignment, while the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance managed economic cooperation. The communist bloc emphasized state-led economic planning and single-party rule, rejecting the liberal order’s emphasis on democracy and free markets.

    Emerging cracks

    When the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s, the liberal international order appeared to have triumphed. The United States became the world’s sole superpower, and many former communist states integrated into Western institutions. For a brief period, the order’s universal vision seemed within reach.

    By the 1990s and early 2000s, however, new cracks began to appear.

    NATO expansion, the creation of the World Trade Organization and greater emphasis on human rights through institutions such as the International Criminal Court all closely aligned with Western liberal values. The spread of these norms and the institutions enforcing them appeared, to many outside the West, as Western ideology dressed up as universal principles.

    In response to mounting criticism, Western leaders began using the term rules-based international order instead of liberal international order. This shift aimed to emphasize procedural fairness – rules that all states, in theory, had agreed upon – rather than a system explicitly rooted in liberal ideological commitments. The focus moved from promoting specific liberal norms to maintaining stability and predictability.

    New challenges to the status quo

    China’s rise has brought these tensions into sharp relief. While China participates in many institutions underpinning the rules-based international order, it also seeks to reshape them.

    The Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank illustrate Beijing’s efforts to establish alternative frameworks more aligned with its interests. These initiatives challenge existing rules and norms by offering new institutional pathways for economic and political influence.

    Meanwhile, Russia’s actions in Ukraine – especially the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the 2022 invasion – challenge the order’s core principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    Western inconsistencies have long undermined the credibility of the rules-based order. The 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, widely criticized for bypassing international norms and institutions, exemplified a selective application of the rules. This double standard extends toward Washington’s selective engagement with international legal bodies and its inconsistent approach to sovereignty and intervention.

    An uncertain future

    Supporters argue that the rules-based order remains vital for addressing global challenges such as climate change, pandemics and nuclear proliferation.

    However, ambiguity surrounds what these “rules” actually entail, which norms are genuinely universal, and who enforces them.

    This lack of clarity, coupled with shifting global power dynamics, complicates efforts to sustain the system.

    The future of the rules-based international order is uncertain. The shift from “liberal” to “rules-based” reflected an ongoing struggle to adapt a complex web of rules, norms and institutions to a rapidly changing international environment.

    Whether it evolves further, splinters or endures as is will depend on how well it balances fairness, inclusivity and stability in an increasingly multipolar world.

    Andrew Latham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is the rules-based order? How this global system has shifted from ‘liberal’ origins − and where it could be heading next – https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-rules-based-order-how-this-global-system-has-shifted-from-liberal-origins-and-where-it-could-be-heading-next-250978

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: You’ve heard of the Big Bang. Now astronomers have discovered the Big Wheel – here’s why it’s significant

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Themiya Nanayakkara, Lead Astronomer at the James Webb Australian Data Centre, Swinburne University of Technology

    The Big Wheel alongside some of its neighbours. Weichen Wang et al. (2025)

    Deep observations from the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) have revealed an exceptionally large galaxy in the early universe. It’s a cosmic giant whose light has travelled over 12 billion years to reach us. We’ve dubbed it the Big Wheel, with our findings published today in Nature Astronomy.

    This giant disk galaxy existed within the first two billion years after the Big Bang, meaning it formed when the universe was just 15% of its current age. It challenges what we know about how galaxies form.

    What is a disk galaxy?

    Picture a galaxy like our own Milky Way: a flat, rotating structure made up of stars, gas and dust, often surrounded by an extensive halo of unseen dark matter.

    Disk galaxies typically have clear spiral arms extending outward from a dense central region. Our Milky Way itself is a disk galaxy, characterised by beautiful spiral arms that wrap around its centre.

    An artist impression of the Milky Way showcasing the dusty spiral structures similar to The Big Wheel.

    Studying disk galaxies, like the Milky Way and the newly discovered Big Wheel, helps us uncover how galaxies form, grow and evolve across billions of years.

    These studies are especially significant, as understanding galaxies similar to our own can provide deeper insights into the cosmic history of our galactic home.

    A giant surprise

    We previously thought galaxy disks form gradually over a long period: either through gas smoothly flowing into galaxies from surrounding space, or by merging with smaller galaxies.

    Usually, rapid mergers between galaxies would disrupt the delicate spiral structures, turning them into more chaotic shapes. However, the Big Wheel managed to quickly grow to a surprisingly large size without losing its distinctive spiral form. This challenges long-held ideas about the growth of giant galaxies.

    Our detailed JWST observations show that the Big Wheel is comparable in size and rotational speed to the largest “super-spiral” galaxies in today’s universe. It is three times as big in size as comparable galaxies at that epoch and is one of the most massive galaxies observed in the early cosmos.

    In fact, its rotation speed places it among galaxies at the high end of what’s called the Tully-Fisher relation, a well-known link between a galaxy’s stellar mass and how fast it spins.

    Remarkably, even though it’s unusually large, the Big Wheel is actively growing at a rate similar to other galaxies at the same cosmic age.

    The Big Wheel galaxy is seen at the centre. In striking contrast, the bright blue galaxy (upper right) is only about 1.5 billion light years away, making the Big Wheel roughly 50 times farther away. Although both appear a similar size, the enormous distance of the Big Wheel reveals its truly colossal physical scale.
    JWST

    Unusually crowded part of space

    What makes this even more fascinating is the environment in which the Big Wheel formed.

    It’s located in an unusually crowded region of space, where galaxies are packed closely together, ten times denser than typical areas of the universe. This dense environment likely provided ideal conditions for the galaxy to grow quickly. It probably experienced mergers that were gentle enough to let the galaxy maintain its spiral disk shape.

    Additionally, the gas flowing into the galaxy must have aligned well with its rotation, allowing the disk to grow quickly without being disrupted. So, a perfect combination.

    An illustration of how a massive spiral galaxy forms and evolves over billions of years. This evolutionary path is similar to real-world galaxies like Andromeda, our closest spiral galaxy neighbour, which also developed distinct spiral arms similar to the Big Wheel.

    A fortunate finding

    Discovering a galaxy like the Big Wheel was incredibly unlikely. We had less than a 2% chance to find this in our survey, according to current galaxy formation models.

    So, our finding was fortunate, probably because we observed it within an exceptionally dense region, quite different from typical cosmic environments.

    Besides its mysterious formation, the ultimate fate of the Big Wheel is another intriguing question. Given the dense environment, future mergers might significantly alter its structure, potentially transforming it into a galaxy comparable in mass to the largest ones observed in nearby clusters, such as Virgo.

    The Big Wheel’s discovery has revealed yet another mystery of the early universe, showing that our current models of galaxy evolution still need refinement.

    With more observations and discoveries of massive, early galaxies like the Big Wheel, astronomers will be able to unlock more secrets about how the universe built the structures we see today.



    Read more:
    From dead galaxies to mysterious red dots, here’s what the James Webb telescope has found in just 3 years

    Themiya Nanayakkara receives funding from Australian Research Council.

    – ref. You’ve heard of the Big Bang. Now astronomers have discovered the Big Wheel – here’s why it’s significant – https://theconversation.com/youve-heard-of-the-big-bang-now-astronomers-have-discovered-the-big-wheel-heres-why-its-significant-252170

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Japanese encephalitis has claimed a second life in NSW and been detected in Brisbane. What is it?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cameron Webb, Clinical Associate Professor and Principal Hospital Scientist, University of Sydney

    encierro/Shutterstock

    A second man has died from Japanese encephalitis virus in New South Wales on March 6, the state’s health authorities confirmed on Friday. Aged in his 70s, the man was infected while holidaying in the Murrumbidgee region.

    This follows the death of another man in his 70s in Sydney last month, after holidaying in the same region in January.

    Japanese encephalitis virus has also been detected for the first time in mosquitoes collected in Brisbane’s eastern suburbs, Queensland health authorities confirmed on Saturday.

    With mosquito activity expected to increase thanks to flooding rains brought by Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred, it’s important to protect yourself from mosquito bites.

    What is Japanese encephalitis virus?

    Japanese encephalitis is one of the most serious diseases that spreads via mosquitoes, with around 68,000 cases annually across Southeast Asia and Western Pacific regions.

    The virus is thought to be maintained in a cycle between mosquitoes and waterbirds. Mosquitoes are infected when they feed from an infected waterbird. They then pass the virus to other waterbirds. Sometimes other animals, and people, can be infected.

    Pigs are also a host, and the virus has spread through commercial piggeries in Victoria, NSW and Queensland. (But it poses no food safety risk.)

    Feral pigs and other animals can also play a role in transmission cycles.

    What are the symptoms?

    Most people infected show no symptoms.

    People with mild cases may have a fever, headache and vomiting.

    In more serious cases – about one in 250 people infected – people may have neck stiffness, disorientation, drowsiness and seizures. Serious illness can have life-long neurological complications and, in some cases, the infection can be life-threatening.

    There’s no specific treatment for the disease.

    When did Japanese encephalitis get to Australia and why is it in Brisbane?

    Outbreaks of Japanese encephalitis had occurred in the Torres Strait during the 1990s. The virus was also detected in the Cape York Peninsula in 1998.

    There had been no evidence of activity on the mainland since 2004 but everything changed in the summer of 2021–22. Japanese encephalitis virus was detected in commercial piggeries in southeastern Australia during that summer.

    This prompted the declaration of a Communicable Disease Incident of National Significance. At the time, flooding accompanying the La Niña-dominated weather patterns and a resulting boom in mosquito numbers, and waterbird populations, was thought responsible.

    The virus has spread in subsequent years and has been detected in the mosquito and arbovirus surveillance programs as well as detection in feral pigs and commercial piggeries in most states and territories. Only Tasmania has remained free of Japanese encephalitis virus.

    Human cases of infection have also been reported. There were more than 50 cases of disease and seven deaths in 2022.

    Cases of Japanese encephalitis have already been reported from Queensland in 2025.

    Due to concern about Japanese encephalitis virus and other mosquito-borne pathogens, health authorities around Australia have expanded and enhanced their surveillance programs.

    In Queensland, this includes mosquito monitoring at a number of locations, including urban areas of southeast Queensland. Mosquitoes collected in this monitoring program tested positive for Japanese encephalitis virus, promoting the current health warnings.

    Why is its detection in Brisbane important?

    Up to now, scientists have thought the risk of Japanese encephalitis was likely greatest following seasons of above-average rainfall or flooding. This provides ideal conditions for waterbirds and mosquitoes.

    But the activity of Japanese encephalitis virus over the summer of 2024–25 has taken many scientists by surprise. Before Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred arrived, there had been somewhat dry conditions with less waterbird activity and low mosquito numbers in many regions of eastern Australia.

    However there has still been widespread Japanese encephalitis virus activity in Victoria, NSW and Queensland.

    To date, Japanese encephalitis virus activity hasn’t extended to the coastal regions of southeast Queensland. The detection of the virus in suburban Brisbane may require authorities to rethink exactly where the virus may turn up next. Authorities are ramping up their surveillance to see just how widespread the virus is in the region.

    Health authorities and scientists are also trying to understand how the virus moved from western areas of the state to the coast and what drives virus transmission in different regions.

    There is currently no evidence the virus is active in coastal regions of northern NSW.

    Mosquitoes collected in Brisbane have tested positive for Japanese encephalitis virus.
    A/Prof Cameron Webb (NSW Health Pathology)

    What can people do to protect themselves?

    Avoiding mosquito bites is the best way to reduce the risk of Japanese encephalitis virus.

    Cover up with long-sleeved shirts and long pants for a physical barrier against mosquito bites.

    Use topical insect repellents containing DEET, picaridin, or oil of lemon eucalyptus. Be sure to apply an even coat on all exposed areas of skin for the longest-lasting protection.

    Ensure any insect screens on houses, tents and caravans are in good repair and reduce the amount of standing water in the backyard. The more water there is around your home, the more opportunities for mosquitoes there are.

    A safe and effective vaccine is available against Japanese encephalitis. Each state and territory health authority (for example Queensland, NSW, Victoria) have specific recommendations about access to vaccinations.

    It may take many weeks following vaccination to achieve sufficient protection, so prioritise reducing your exposure to bites in the meantime.

    Cameron Webb and the Department of Medical Entomology, NSW Health Pathology and University of Sydney, have been engaged by a wide range of insect repellent and insecticide manufacturers to provide testing of products and provide expert advice on medically important arthropods, including mosquitoes. Cameron has also received funding from local, state and federal agencies to undertake research into various aspects of management of various medically important arthropods.

    Andrew van den Hurk has received funding from local, state and federal agencies to study the ecology of mosquito-borne pathogens, and their surveillance and control. He is an employee of the Department of Health, Queensland government.

    – ref. Japanese encephalitis has claimed a second life in NSW and been detected in Brisbane. What is it? – https://theconversation.com/japanese-encephalitis-has-claimed-a-second-life-in-nsw-and-been-detected-in-brisbane-what-is-it-252373

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Non-compete agreements and other restraints can end up hurting Australian workers – and all of us pay the price

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paula McDonald, Professor of Work and Organisation, Queensland University of Technology

    Twinsterphoto/Shutterstock

    Australian workers have to overcome some significant barriers in navigating their careers.

    Some may lack the training or work experience opportunities needed to make themselves stand out and take the next step. Others may be extensively qualified, but face limited new job or promotional opportunities relevant to their skill set.

    But there’s another common barrier that’s often overlooked: post-employment restraints. Among the most well-known are non-compete clauses, but these aren’t the only kind.

    These tools are designed to protect employer interests. But their widespread use has far-reaching consequences for job mobility, wages and innovation across Australia.

    Our new research, which was commissioned by the Department of Treasury and conducted by researchers at Queensland University of Technology, set out to examine how these agreements are impacting Australia’s workforce.

    We zeroed in on two very different occupational groups – hairdressers and IT professionals. Our findings point to an urgent need for regulatory reform in Australia. But we also offer solutions that could better balance business needs with worker rights.

    What are post-employment restraints?

    Post-employment restraints are contractual clauses that restrict what workers can do after leaving their jobs.

    One common type are non-compete clauses, which prevent workers from joining competitors or starting their own businesses, usually (though not always) in the same industry.

    Signing a non-compete agreement often prevents you from working for a competing business.
    G.Tbov/Shutterstock

    There are also non-solicitation agreements, which restrict them from approaching former clients or colleagues.

    And non-disclosure obligations can limit the use of confidential information concerning the employer’s business – even when created by workers themselves.

    Businesses argue these clauses help them safeguard their proprietary interests, such as hard-won client relationships, trade secrets and intellectual property.

    However, their application is not limited to high-level executives or sensitive roles. Such restraints are more common than many realise.

    Data cited in our report from businesses with 200 employees or less confirms previous Australian research: at least one in five businesses use non-compete, non-solicitation of clients and non-solicitation of co-workers clauses. The number is even higher if non-disclosure agreements are included in the list of restraints.

    Overall, half of all Australian workers are reported to have post-employment restraints – including many in low-paid jobs.

    As former Fair Work Commission President Iain Ross has pointed out, this raises critical questions about fairness and the broader impacts on the labour market.

    A tangle of restrictions in hairdressing

    Hairdressing is a predominantly female, low-wage profession. Our interviews with hairdressers reveal the outsized impact that post-employment restraints can have on vulnerable workers.

    Restrictions typically include bans on working within a certain radius of their former salon, taking clients to a new employer, or starting their own business.

    Many interviewees only learned about these restrictions after accepting a position or deciding to leave. Some reported being barred from telling clients of their departure or facing demands to pay penalties if clients followed them to a new salon.

    The personal relationships hairdressers form with their clients are central to their work and professional identity. However, these relationships often become battlegrounds when employment ends.

    Hairdressers explained the difficulties that often arose from becoming “friends” with clients. As one put it:

    As soon as you leave, it’s almost harder than a breakup.

    Client relationships are a prized asset in the hairdressing industry.
    MarijaBazarova/Shutterstock

    Chained to the chair

    Financially, these restrictions exacerbate the already precarious conditions in the hairdressing industry.

    With limited opportunities for wage growth, many hairdressers establish their own businesses or rent chairs in salons for greater independence.

    Yet, non-compete clauses often delay these plans. Hairdressers are then forced to accept lower-paying positions or leave the profession entirely.

    Social media has added a whole new layer of complexity. Hairdressers are often required to use their personal social media accounts to promote their employer’s business, only to have their posts deleted or accounts locked when they leave. This can erase years of professional work and connections.

    Many young hairdressers we spoke to expressed particular frustration that their social media presence, cultivated under the salon’s brand, could not be carried forward to new roles.

    Holding back innovation

    Our study found while hairdressers face restrictions on their mobility and client relationships, IT professionals face obstacles that limit their ability to innovate.

    IT professionals often develop new technologies, software or processes, sometimes in their own time. However, contracts often claim ownership of these innovations for the employer.

    We found non-disclosure agreements, non-compete clauses and intellectual property ownership terms are all common in the industry.

    This environment discourages entrepreneurial ventures and independent projects, even as the industry demands agility and creativity.

    As one participant explained:

    It’s made me pause multiple times, made me think about not developing a code that you’re interested in just for your own development.

    Professionals reported feeling “locked in” to roles, unable to pursue side projects or start their own businesses without risking legal action.

    Non-compete clauses in IT contracts also restrict job mobility when professionals cannot join competitor companies or use their expertise in new roles.

    This impacts not only individual workers but also the broader industry, as firms struggle to recruit skilled talent.

    Paradoxically, some employers actively poach talent from competitors while enforcing non-compete clauses against their own staff.

    Intellectual property restrictions can discourage IT professionals from working on their own innovative projects.
    Jacob Lund/Shutterstock

    The way forward

    By limiting job mobility, post-employment restraints contribute to wage stagnation and reduce workers’ bargaining power.

    Australia’s regulatory approach to this issue lags behind other countries. There are no formal limits on the length or breadth of restraints, just a vague test of “reasonableness” that makes it hard to know what is permissible, without costly litigation.

    In the United States, California has banned non-compete clauses outright, fostering a thriving tech industry. In Europe, companies like Germany impose strict limits on the duration of restraints and require employers to compensate workers during the restricted period.

    These models demonstrate that balancing employer interests with worker rights is possible and can yield positive outcomes.

    One option for policymakers in Australia would be to impose new restrictions on the scope and duration of restraints to ensure they serve legitimate business interests without unduly restricting workers.

    Employers could be required to provide plain-language explanations around these restrictions at the time of hiring and compensate workers for the duration of any restraint, as seen in some European models.

    Post-employment restraints are a double-edged sword. While they may protect legitimate business interests, their overuse undermines job mobility, innovation and worker wellbeing.



    Read more:
    Would a mandatory five-day working week solve construction’s work-life balance woes?

    Paula McDonald receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth Department of Treasury.

    Andrew Stewart receives funding from Commonwealth Department of Treasury.

    – ref. Non-compete agreements and other restraints can end up hurting Australian workers – and all of us pay the price – https://theconversation.com/non-compete-agreements-and-other-restraints-can-end-up-hurting-australian-workers-and-all-of-us-pay-the-price-247449

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Coalition promises Australian version of United States’ RICO act to target CFMEU

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has announced a Coalition government would introduce legislation, based on an American law used to pursue the Mafia, to enable police to target the “kingpins” of criminal organisations such as outlaw motorcycle gangs.

    This follows new allegations by Nine newspapers and 60 Minutes about the rogue union the CFMEU. The allegations include “the employment of ‘baseball-twirling violent people’ on the [Victorian government’s] Big Build, where women have been bashed and then black-banned after they complained”.

    The Nine investigation further alleged that “gangland and bikie-linked figures are receiving large payments from companies on publicly funded projects looking to gain favour with union insiders, leaving state and federal taxpayers in effect underwriting payments to the underworld.”

    The Coalition said Monday the proposed new offences would “be based on the highly effective Mafia takedown laws in the US”. Dutton and shadow ministers Michaelia Cash and James Paterson said in a statement:

    By targeting groups that engage in a pattern of criminal behaviour, these offences will put police in the position where they can target the criminal organisation and its leadership.

    This  means the bosses and kingpins of groups such as outlaw motorcycle gangs can be jailed even if they distance themselves from the crimes their organisations commit.

    Dutton described the CFMEU as “a modern-day mafia operation”. He added:

    The culture of criminality and corruption is so entrenched, and it will never change – especially under the weak and incompetent Albanese Labor government.

    Dutton claimed the CFMEU affair was the “biggest corruption scandal in our country’s history”.

    The opposition said it would also set up an Australian Federal Police-led taskforce that would bring together federal law enforcement agencies and state and territory police forces to target criminal behaviour.

    After the latest revelation surfaced in Nine media at the weekend, Workplace Relations Minister Murray Watt said on social media he would refer the allegations to the police.

    On Monday, Watt condemned Dutton’s proposal for a new law.

    We don’t need to import an American racketeering law – we already have our own laws to go after ‘kingpins’, such as section 390.6 of the Criminal Code, which already deals with directing criminal organisation.

    He also condemned the opposition’s long-standing policy to deregister the union, saying this would mean there was no regulation.

    Peter Dutton’s reckless desire for a headline puts at risk the investigations and crime-fighting that the Coalition never bothered to commence in their decade in office.

    Victoria police is undertaking an investigation into the fresh allegations.

    The US Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organisations (RICO) Act, dating from 1970, enables prosecutors to take down whole mob-related organisations rather than having only the power to deal with figures individually. It is intended to deal with mob bosses who could not be directly connected to the crimes.

    Its use, however, has extended well beyond mob prosecutions to a range of targets, from street gangs to politicians.

    US President Donald Trump was charged under Georgia’s RICO act for “knowingly and willfully joining a conspiracy to unlawfully change the outcome of the [2020] election”.

    The construction and general division of the CFMEU has been in administration since last August.

    The union’s national secretary, Zach Smith, said on Facebook: “We cannot  let our union or our industry be a safe haven for criminality of corruption”.

    He also said that “violence against women is completely unacceptable to our union”.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Coalition promises Australian version of United States’ RICO act to target CFMEU – https://theconversation.com/coalition-promises-australian-version-of-united-states-rico-act-to-target-cfmeu-252172

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Many of history’s deadliest building fires have been in nightclubs. Here’s why they’re so dangerous

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Milad Haghani, Associate Professor & Principal Fellow in Urban Risk & Resilience, The University of Melbourne

    A fire at a nightclub in North Macedonia has killed at least 59 people and injured more than 150. The blaze broke out at the Pulse nightclub in Kočani, where around 500 people were attending a concert.

    Witnesses reported that pyrotechnics used during the performance ignited the ceiling, causing flames to spread rapidly.

    Authorities have arrested 20 people so far, including the club’s manager. Investigations continue. The North Macedonian government has declared a seven-day mourning period.

    While building fires are not limited to nightclubs, many of the most devastating building fires in history have happened in nightclubs around the world. So why are nightclubs such a risky place for deadly fires?

    A long history of nightclub fires

    A look at past nightclub fires shows just how common and deadly they’ve been in the past 100 years. We identified at least 24 nightclub fires where ten or more people died since 1940.

    Collectively, these 24 incidents account for at least 2,800 deaths, with nearly 1,300 in the 21st century alone.

    The Cocoanut Grove fire (Boston, 1942) remains the deadliest on record, killing 492 people. The club’s flammable decorations and locked exits turned what should have been an ordinary night out into one of the worst fire disasters in history.

    In Argentina, the República Cromañón fire killed 194 people in 2004, caused by pyrotechnics igniting flammable materials inside the club.

    The Kiss nightclub fire in Brazil in 2013 was even deadlier, claiming 242 lives.

    More recently, Thailand’s Mountain B nightclub fire killed 23 people in 2022.

    And in 2023, 13 people died in a fire at the Fonda Milagros nightclub in Spain.

    Now, North Macedonia’s Pulse nightclub joins this long list.

    Why are nightclubs so risky for fires?

    A review of past nightclub fires we’ve collated in our database reveals common patterns. Two key factors have contributed to the frequency and severity of these fire disasters.

    1. Pyrotechnics, fireworks and flammable materials

    One of the most common causes of nightclub fires has been the use of pyrotechnics in enclosed spaces. Pyrotechnics are controlled chemical reactions designed to produce flames, smoke, or light effects.

    They have been involved in at least six of the deadliest nightclub fires, including the recent Pulse nightclub fire in North Macedonia, as well as The Station (United States, 2003), Kiss (Brazil, 2013), Colectiv (Romania, 2015), Lame Horse (Russia, 2009) and República Cromañón (Argentina, 2004).

    When used indoors, pyrotechnics can easily ignite flammable ceiling materials, acoustic foam, or decorations.

    In some cases, fireworks – which are different from stage pyrotechnics and sometimes illegally used indoors – have played a role. The Lame Horse nightclub fire, which killed 156 people in Russia in 2009, was caused by a spark from fireworks igniting a low ceiling covered in flammable plastic decorations.

    Even when fires don’t start from pyrotechnics or fireworks, the materials used in nightclub interiors can rapidly turn a small fire into a major disaster.

    Foam insulation, wooden panelling, plastic decorations and carpeted walls have all been key factors in past nightclub fires. In Cocoanut Grove (Boston, 1942), artificial palm trees and other flammable decorations accelerated the blaze.

    2. Overcrowding and blocked or insufficient exits

    Evacuation failures have been a factor in nearly every major nightclub fire.

    In some instances, crowds may not immediately recognise the severity of the situation, especially if they mistake alarms for false alarms or special effects (for example, smoke machines, loud music).

    Further, patrons could be intoxicated due alcohol or other drugs. Intoxication combined with potential disorientation due to dim lighting can further reduce judgement during an evacuation.

    Clearly, the best way to protect patrons is to prevent a fire from breaking out in the first place. But in settings where fire risks are inherently high, the ability to evacuate people swiftly is crucial.

    Nightclubs, however, have a poor track record when it comes to evacuation safety measures.

    Nightclubs are among the most crowded indoor spaces. While crowd density is part of a nightclub’s design and atmosphere, overcrowding beyond legal capacity is common.

    A crowd that has gradually gathered over several hours must suddenly evacuate in seconds or minutes to survive a fire. This is made more difficult by narrow hallways and limited exits, which quickly become bottlenecks when hundreds of people attempt to escape at once.

    What’s more, not all exits are always accessible during a fire. In several past nightclub disasters, locked or obstructed emergency exits have significantly worsened the death toll.

    Minimising the risks

    Nightclubs are uniquely vulnerable to fires due to a combination of structural risks, unsafe materials, overcrowding and regulatory failures.

    While human behaviour plays a role in how fires unfold in confined spaces such as nightclubs, people should be able to go for a night out and expect to come home safely.

    Regulatory oversight must ensure strict compliance with fire codes. Venues should have fire suppression systems (such as sprinklers, fire extinguishers and smoke detectors) to control or contain fires before they spread, and adequate exits.

    Nightclubs should ban indoor pyrotechnics and fireworks, as history has repeatedly shown their deadly consequences.

    Capacity limits must be enforced, and emergency exits should always be accessible.

    Australia has strict fire safety regulations for nightclubs, with venues required to have fire suppression systems, emergency exits and trained staff to manage fire risks.

    Public awareness is also key. Patrons need to understand the real risk of fires in nightclubs, and be prepared to evacuate swiftly but calmly if danger arises.

    Ruggiero Lovreglio receives funding from Royal Society Te Apārangi (NZ) and National Institute of Standards and Technology (USA).

    Milad Haghani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Many of history’s deadliest building fires have been in nightclubs. Here’s why they’re so dangerous – https://theconversation.com/many-of-historys-deadliest-building-fires-have-been-in-nightclubs-heres-why-theyre-so-dangerous-252372

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Serwah Attafuah: a powerful and most welcome voice in contemporary Australian art

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Dominic Redfern, Associate Professor, School of Art, RMIT University

    Serwah Attafuah, The Darkness Between The Stars, JOAN. Landscape still. Courtesy of the artist.

    Virtuosic digital artistry is on show in Serwah Attafuah’s installation The Darkness Between the Stars, currently showing at ACMI.

    The work fiercely challenges stereotypes of black femininity and draws upon the history and culture of the Ashanti people of modern-day Ghana, one of the countries most affected by the Atlantic slave trade and the site of remembrance and pilgrimage for many descendants of the people trafficked as slaves.

    Serewah is part of a generation of video artists like Melbourne’s Xanthe Dobbie, British artist Rachel Maclean, and Paris based, French Guianese artist Tabita Rezaire. These artists all channel the moving image culture of gaming and the internet, rather than the cinematic or televisual references of their forebears.

    Each of these artists uses exuberant humour and a tough-minded politic to challenge the reductive construction of female and queer identities.

    As we pass through the arch at the entry to the gallery, we are greeted by a 3D animation of an ocean reflecting a sky that cycles from starlit to slowly emerging dawn. We are told the arch references the entry to the Elmina castle built by the Portuguese: one of two major points from which enslaved African people were cast into the hell of the Atlantic passage and life in bonds.

    African warriors

    Beyond the entrance we are faced by a series of five screens in portrait format. Each shows short loops of African warriors, suggesting the idealised – and, here, heroic – forms of game avatars a la Fortnite.

    Each of the images is framed in gold e-waste. This brings to mind Congolese street art costumes, similarly made of waste which blend cultural traditions and an Afrofuturist resistance that dares to imagine a better future.

    The first portrait is a furred, horn helmeted, and neck ringed warrior woman. Armed with a laser and an automatic pistol, she has further weapons adorning her back ready to be deployed.

    Serwah Attafuah, The Darkness Between The Stars, ANANSI, 2025.
    Still courtesy of the artist

    Behind and around her are malfunctioning computer screens. One scrolls through an online dating text exchange which evokes the idealised and reductive self-curation of the online profile. This chat is between Jenny and Mark, a FIFO worker on an offshore oil rig in Western Australia. This ties to the images of oil rigs found elsewhere in the show, evoking the plundering of African resources: human and otherwise; historical and ongoing.

    The second screen pictures an armoured woman (or cyborg?) atop a rearing tiger. The tiger is an intriguing choice given it is an Asian animal but potentially points to a pan exoticism rooted in the confusion of cultures.

    She wields a curved blade amid a savannah populated with umbrella thorn acacia and what appear to be comfortingly homely (and amusing) ground-hugging waratahs in the foreground.

    Serwah Attafuah, The Darkness Between The Stars, JOAN, 2025.
    Still courtesy of the artist.

    Complicating fetishes

    Moving around the room, floating robots accompany another warrior who props against a sword supported by a fragmented classical column.

    She stands beneath an oversized moon, evoking an off-world setting, a reading compounded by her protective headwear.

    Alongside a writhing snake, we catch sight of her Betty Davis (no, the Black one) super heels: a clear link to the under-remembered pioneer of Afrofuturism.

    Serwah Attafuah, The Darkness Between The Stars, KING, 2025.
    Still courtesy of the artist.

    Continuing this play of sexual provocation and power is the addition of a techno tutu which further accentuates her already thrusting buttocks.

    The problematisation of sexualised imagery is one of the exhibition’s central themes. Attafuah toys with the Western fetishisation and fear of Black women’s sexuality.

    Occasionally borrowing cliches from the gaming and pornographic worlds, Attafuah forcefully complicates such fetishes by arming four of her five warriors to the teeth. They take aim at us, challenging their construction as passive objects for our visual consumption.

    A further figure, singularly unarmed apart from her thorny armbands, appears in the next frame. She runs through a series of coquettish modelling poses in her mesh bodysuit as she stands amid buzzing screens and computer detritus.

    In yet another confusingly (and amusingly) stereotyped African landscape she is pictured among palm trees and sand, in what I took to be an evocation of a North African environment complete with desert fortress, oil rig and passing container ship.

    In the final of the five portraits a young, braided, and fantastically eyelashed woman takes aim at us with a pistol straight from Star Wars (Rebel Alliance issue, naturally).

    Serwah Attafuah, The Darkness Between The Stars, VENUS, 2025.
    Still courtesy of the artist.

    She stands hip deep in a lagoon of water lilies and floating CDs. A futuristic city fills the background with a slowly turning wind turbine that sports yellow and black radiation colouring – yet another paradoxical meeting in an exhibition characterised by mixed messages that contradict easy readings.

    In The Darkness Between the Stars, Attafuah proves herself to be a powerful, uncompromising and most welcome voice in contemporary Australian art. She proves herself capable of generating sophisticated, nuanced and playful reflections on complex problems that we carry from past to present.

    Serwah Attafuah: The Darkness Between the Stars is at ACMI, Melbourne, until June 1.

    Dominic Redfern works at RMIT with, and previously taught, Xanthe Dobbie.

    – ref. Serwah Attafuah: a powerful and most welcome voice in contemporary Australian art – https://theconversation.com/serwah-attafuah-a-powerful-and-most-welcome-voice-in-contemporary-australian-art-250154

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump is surveying Australian academics about gender diversity and China – what does this mean for unis and their research?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brendan Walker-Munro, Senior Lecturer (Law), Southern Cross University

    Shortly after taking office, US President Donald Trump issued executive orders banning federal funding on so-called “woke” research.

    This is part of his broader ban on all diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) policies, grants and programs in the US government.

    These orders are massive in scope, impacting studies as varied as stroke recovery, computing and ancient languages.

    The impact in the United States so far has been dramatic. Some universities are already cutting student admissions and looking at ways to shed academic staff and researchers.

    Now the ban has impacted Australian researchers who have links to US government-funded projects. The Trump Administration is asking for information on how their research fits in with US foreign and domestic policy.

    What has happened?

    The US government has sent a 36-point questionnaire to some Australian researchers who are working on joint projects with US colleagues.

    ABC Radio National reports at least eight Australian universities are involved. Their research areas include foreign aid, medicine, vaccines and defence. The New York Times reports a similar document has also been sent to other overseas organisations with US funding links.

    The questions are wide-ranging and cover academics’ links to China as well as their projects’ focus on topics such as diversity, inclusion and gender identity, as well as climate change.

    Some of the specific questions include:

    Can you confirm that your organisation has not received ANY funding from PRC People’s Republic of China, Russia, Cuba or Iran?

    Can you confirm that this is no DEI [diversity, equity and inclusion] project or DEI elements of the project? [sic]

    Does this project take appropriate measures to protect women and to defend against gender ideology as defined in the below Executive Order?

    Can you confirm this is not a climate or “environmental justice” project or include such elements?

    The survey also covers issues such as secure borders with Mexico, ending government waste, terrorism, the war on opioids, and “eradicating anti-Christian bias”.

    Concern and anger

    In response, the Group of Eight (which represents Australia’s top research universities) and Australian Academy of Science have separately raised concerns with the Australian government about the survey and its impact on Australian research.

    The Group of Eight says the US has already suspended or terminated research grants with six of its eight member universities.

    The National Tertiary Education Union also labelled the survey “blatant foreign interference”.

    A spokesperson for Education Minister Jason Clare says Australia is
    “engaging with the US government to understand what these measures mean for future funding and collaboration”.

    Are Trump’s orders legal?

    Trump’s executive orders are currently the subject of numerous lawsuits in the US. Plaintiffs say Trump’s orders violate the First and Fifth Amendments – those dealing with protection of free speech, equal protection and “due process of law” when depriving a citizen of property.

    Whether Trump’s orders are legal or not is a tricky question, and will likely come down the judges hearing each case.

    In the meantime, US government agencies are withholding funding anyway. Reports also suggests Trump has instructed his administration to ignore court orders – hardly surprising, given Trump’s history of contempt of US courts.

    What does this mean for Australia?

    US involvement in Australian research is significant. According to the Academy of Science, US government research funding involving Australian research organisations was $A386 million in 2024.

    It is arguable Trump’s orders infringe Australian sovereignty. But the US has always had the capacity to interfere in Australian university research – it just hasn’t actually done it until now.

    Research contracts signed between universities and funding bodies can contain all kinds of requirements, so US law can end up applying to Australian researchers. When the AUKUS deal was announced in 2021, a huge question was how universities would comply with notoriously harsh US export control laws.

    The survey indicates it was issued by the US Office of Management and Budget and appears to be supported by the US CHIPS and Science Act (which authorises certain research investments) and National Science Foundation policies. So, while Australian researchers could potentially ignore these questionnaires, that would legally give a US funding body grounds to cancel the funding contract.

    Our foreign interference laws also weren’t designed for situations like this. Even if they did, Trump is the current head of the US government, and is likely to be immune from prosecution

    Statutory tests for foreign interference – including criteria that such acts are covert, and/or involve threats of harm – simply don’t apply to a US president like Trump.

    So legally, it doesn’t look like there is much Australia can do about Trump’s orders.

    What can Australia do?

    Some newly unemployed researchers are now poised to leave the US, taking their research with them. This poses a potential security risk, with countries such as China and Russia both keen to capitalise on Trump’s decisions.

    But other nations are also aware of the possibilities. The European Union has already offered displaced US scientists a more “sympathetic place to work”. South Korea and Canada are also marketing themselves as attractive options. Australia could follow suit.

    The federal government is currently doing a strategic review of Australia’s research and development system. This could make diversifying our research partners a national priority.

    This could include revisiting a 2023 decision, not to join Horizon Europe – the European Union’s key research fund.

    Either way, given such radical changes in the US, Australia needs to seriously reconsider how it is funding and structuring research.

    Brendan Walker-Munro has consulted for the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) and the Independent National Security Legislation Monitor, and is also an Adjunct Expert Associate of the National Security College. He has received funding from the Social Cyber Institute and Active Cyber Defence Alliance.

    – ref. Trump is surveying Australian academics about gender diversity and China – what does this mean for unis and their research? – https://theconversation.com/trump-is-surveying-australian-academics-about-gender-diversity-and-china-what-does-this-mean-for-unis-and-their-research-252282

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Hundreds of livestock breeds have gone extinct – but some Australian farmers are keeping endangered breeds alive

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Catie Gressier, Adjunct Research Fellow in Agriculture and Environment, The University of Western Australia

    Berkshire pigs JWhitwell/Shutterstock

    It took thousands of years to develop the world’s extraordinary range of domesticated farm animals – an estimated 8,800 livestock breeds across 38 farmed species.

    But this diversity is dwindling fast. Advances in selective breeding and artificial insemination have fuelled the global spread of a small number of profitable livestock types. Their popularity has left ever more heritage breeds at risk of extinction.

    Why does this matter? Each breed represents vital genetic diversity for the livestock species on which we rely, known as agrobiodiversity. As the number of breeds shrink, we lose their genetics forever.

    There are bright spots amid the decline. Hundreds of passionate farmers are working hard to keep heritage breeds alive around Australia. As my new book shows, they do it primarily for love.

    Which livestock breeds are disappearing – and why?

    Cattle have experienced the highest number of extinctions, with at least 184 breeds lost globally.

    Of all chicken breeds, one in ten is now extinct, and a further 30% are endangered.

    Sheep are also rapidly losing diversity, with 160 breeds now extinct. The rise of synthetic materials has endangered the remaining breeds producing carpet wool in New Zealand and Australia, including the unique Tasmanian Elliottdale.

    The fleece of Elliotdale sheep has been used to make woollen carpets.
    Sue Curliss, CC BY-NC-ND

    Pigs fare little better. Australia’s 2.5 million pigs are predominantly Large White, Landrace and Duroc crossbreeds, while none of the eight remaining purebred pig breeds in Australia currently has more than 100 sows registered with the Rare Breeds Trust. While not all sows are registered, we know breeds such as Tamworths are at dangerously low numbers.

    How did this happen? Over the past century, the goal of animal husbandry has shifted from breeding hardy, multipurpose animals to increasing performance for economic gain. For livestock, performance means more of what humans value, such as pigs with extra ribs, prolific egg-laying hens and sheep with finer wool.

    Huge sums have been spent on selective breeding and artificial insemination technologies. This, in turn, has made it possible for a small number of profitable livestock types to be farmed globally.

    For instance, when you buy a roast chicken, it will likely be one of just two types of fast-growing broilers (meat chickens), the Ross or the Cobb. Their genetics are developed and trademarked by two multinational agribusinesses who dominate the global broiler market.

    Chicken breed numbers have shrunk too, risking rare breeds such as Transylvanian naked neck cockerel bantams.
    Scott Carter, CC BY-NC-ND

    It’s hard to overstate how big the increases in production have been from reproductive technologies. In the dairy industry, for instance, milk yield per cow has doubled in the past 40 years. These volumes are around six times greater now than a century ago.

    Holsteins, the top dairy breed, have become globally dominant. Almost 1.4 million of Australia’s 1.65 million dairy cows are Holsteins. But as Holstein numbers soar, other breeds dwindle. Many farmers have simply stopped rearing other breeds, leading to many becoming endangered or extinct.

    For Holsteins themselves, this has come with a cost. Selective breeding for high milk volume has meant Holsteins suffer more medical issues such as metabolic diseases and frequent mastitis. They also have reduced fertility and longevity.

    Researchers have found 99% of Holstein bulls produced by artificial insemination in the United States are descended from just two sires. This wide dissemination of limited bloodlines has led to the spread of genetic defects.

    Holstein cows produce much more milk – but there’s a cost.
    VanderWolf Images/Shutterstock

    What is at stake?

    Our food systems face growing threats. Genetic diversity provides a safeguard for livestock species against lethal animal diseases such as H5N1 bird flu and African swine fever.

    If we rely on just a few breeds, we risk a wipe out. The Irish potato famine is a catastrophic example. In the 1800s, Irish farmers took up the “lumper” variety of potatoes to feed a growing population. But when fungal rot struck in the 1840s, it turned most of the crop to mush – and led to mass starvation.

    Some breeds have very useful traits, such as resistance to particular pests and diseases.

    Chickens and other birds die in swathes if infected by Newcastle disease, one of the most serious bird viruses. But breeds such as the hardy Egyptian Fayoumi survive better, while the European Leghorn – whose genetics are used in commercial egg-laying breeds – is highly susceptible.

    Local breeds can also have better resistance to endemic pests. The Indian zebu humped cattle breed, for example, is less prone to tick infestation than crossbreeds.

    Climate change is also making life harder for livestock, and some breeds are better adapted to heat than others.

    For different cultural groups, local heritage breeds also have unique symbolic and culinary value.

    While it’s well-known eating less meat would benefit ecosystems, animal welfare and human health, eating meat remains entrenched in our diets and the economy. Pursuing more sustainable and higher-welfare approaches to livestock production is crucial.

    Some Aussie farmers love heritage breeds

    A cohort of Australian farmers is working hard to conserve dozens of endangered livestock breeds such as Large Black pigs, Shropshire sheep and Belted Galloway cattle.

    A rare Belted Galloway cow with a one week old calf.
    Scott Carter, CC BY-NC-ND

    But these farmers are hampered by our reluctance as consumers to pay more to cover the cost of raising slower-growing breeds in free-range environments. Not only that, but meat processors are increasingly closing their doors to small-scale producers.

    Why persevere? For four years, I’ve conducted ethnographic research with Australia’s heritage breed farmers. I found they were motivated by one of the most powerful conservation tools we have: love.

    Of his endangered English Leicester sheep, one farmer told me:

    I consider them to be family; they have been our family for over 150 years. I talk to them, and the rams in particular talk to me. Sorry if I sound like a silly old man, but you must talk to them. I gave myself a 60th birthday present by commissioning a large portrait of an English Leicester head, which hangs in our kitchen (I do not have a painting of my wife).

    Love doesn’t often feature in agricultural research. But it is an important force. We know from wildlife conservation that humans will act to save what they love. This holds for livestock, too.

    What can you do? If you eat meat or work with wool, seek out rare breeds and join organisations such as the Rare Breeds Trust of Australia and the Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance who back farmers supporting breed diversity.

    Catie Gressier receives funding from the Australian Research Council’s Discovery Project scheme as well as the European Research Council. She is affiliated with the Rare Breeds Trust of Australia and the Australian Food Sovereignty Alliance.

    – ref. Hundreds of livestock breeds have gone extinct – but some Australian farmers are keeping endangered breeds alive – https://theconversation.com/hundreds-of-livestock-breeds-have-gone-extinct-but-some-australian-farmers-are-keeping-endangered-breeds-alive-250393

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Luxon meets Modi: why a ‘good’ NZ-India trade deal is preferable to a ‘perfect’ one

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Chris Ogden, Associate Professor in Global Studies, University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

    Some have said Christopher Luxon’s pledge to get a free trade deal between New Zealand and India over the line in his first term as prime minister was overly optimistic. But not all trade deals are the same, and Luxon may yet get to claim bragging rights.

    Already he is managing expectations, saying a “good” deal will be better than waiting a long time for a “perfect” one. And with formal negotiations confirmed not long after Luxon touched down in New Delhi, we can perhaps expect genuine movement.

    At the same time, India’s negotiating style is notoriously rigid, with its bilateral investment treaty model having proved a stumbling block to deals with many other nations or blocs, including the United Kingdom and European Union.

    New Zealand first held formal negotiations with India over a decade ago. But talks derailed in 2015 over the inclusion of dairy products in any agreement. We can be fairly sure this will be the compromise Luxon’s government is ready to make now.

    One model might be Australia’s Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement, which leaves out dairy, too. And New Zealand was able to sign a free trade deal with China in 2008 that excluded diary, with those restrictions removed in a 2022 upgrade.

    Beyond the economic implications, of course, lie domestic political calculations. Luxon needs a win to counter flatlining poll numbers and speculation about his leadership future. Good news in India offers just that.

    Playing the Indo-Pacific card

    Using diplomatic language that plays up New Zealand being part of the Indo-Pacific region – rather than the traditional Western alliance – will be essential.

    New Zealand – despite its relatively small size – is still a significant regional player, with the Indo-Pacific’s fourth highest GDP per capita.

    In the context of an imminent “Asian Century”, and the region becoming a crucial zone for economic and military power, New Zealand also provides a strategic pathway into the Pacific, where India is becoming increasingly involved.

    All of this will influence Luxon’s keynote address today at the 10th Raisina Dialogue, India’s flagship multilateral conference on global politics and economics. He is the first leader not governing a European country to make such a speech, and is also the chief guest at the dialogue.

    Luxon is already on the record as saying New Zealand and India are “very aligned” on Indo-Pacific security and concerns over Chinese regional influence, with scope for more joint defence exercises. This linkage between security and trade mirrors Wellington’s recent relations with Beijing, which have become increasingly difficult to navigate.

    Solid foundations

    But there is a long way to go. In 2024, India-New Zealand trade was worth a combined NZ$3.14 billion – a fraction of the $208.46 billion generated by trade with China in the same year.

    Nevertheless, Luxon and his ministers have made undeniable progress. His “recalibration of a relationship that has long been neglected” bore fruit in October last year when he met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the ASEAN summit, and the countries announced their intention to take the relationship to “greater heights”.

    The previous Labour government helped set the scene with a succession of high-level diplomatic visits and parliamentary exchanges. In 2023, the Indian government described relations with New Zealand as having “an upward trajectory”.

    And there are clearly good foundations to build on – especially the 292,000 people of Indian ethnicity in New Zealand, who contribute US$10 billion to the New Zealand economy.

    Great expectations

    Trade is ripe for expansion, too. New Zealand primarily exports wool, iron and steel, aluminium, fruits and nuts, wood pulp and recovered paper, and imports Indian pharmaceuticals, machinery, precious metals and stones, textiles, vehicles and clothing.

    There’s potential to grow trade with India in tourism (especially attractive to India’s growing middle class), and collaboration on space technology, renewable energy and agritech.

    There were 8,000 Indian students in New Zealand last year, a number that may well grow given a relative drop in student numbers from China. With the US and UK becoming more hostile to immigration, New Zealand can offer a relatively safe and tolerant alternative.

    In many ways, India is the new China. In 2023, India’s GDP was US$14.54 trillion, making it the world’s fourth largest economy. New Delhi is on the cusp of becoming a great power, and is being courted by all countries, big and small.

    As such, while Luxon has momentum on a trade deal, he is also part of a long queue. Given the relative power imbalance between the two countries, the weight of expectation sits squarely on his shoulders.

    Chris Ogden is a Senior Research Fellow with The Foreign Policy Centre, London.

    – ref. Luxon meets Modi: why a ‘good’ NZ-India trade deal is preferable to a ‘perfect’ one – https://theconversation.com/luxon-meets-modi-why-a-good-nz-india-trade-deal-is-preferable-to-a-perfect-one-252036

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Gains for Labor as they lead in three of last five polls

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    A national Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted March 13–15 from a sample of 1,051, gave the Coalition a 51–49 lead by respondent preferences, a one-point gain for Labor since the late February Freshwater poll.

    Primary votes were 39% Coalition (down two), 31% Labor (steady), 14% Greens (up one) and 16% for all Others (up one). By 2022 election preference flows, this would be about a 50–50 tie.

    Anthony Albanese’s net approval improved one point to -10, while Peter Dutton’s slid four points to -12. In the last two months, Albanese is up eight and Dutton down eight. It’s the first time since May 2024 that Albanese has had a better net approval than Dutton in this poll.

    Albanese led Dutton by 45.9–42.5 as preferred PM, his best lead in this poll since last September. By 42–40, respondents thought Dutton better suited to negotiate with US President Donald Trump than Albanese (47–36 in November).

    The Coalition leads on important issues, but Labor has gained seven points on economic management and three points on cost of living since February.

    There has been improvement for Labor across a range of polls in the last few weeks, and the graph below has Labor leads in three of the last five national polls (two YouGovs and a Morgan), with the Coalition still ahead in Newspoll and Freshwater.

    In analyst Kevin Bonham’s aggregate, Labor now leads by 50.5–49.5 using 2022 election flows, while it’s a 50–50 tie adjusting for a likely pro-Coalition shift in One Nation preferences.

    Last Wednesday Trump imposed 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports into the US, including on Australia. I believe this will assist Labor as the tariff imposition will appear unjustified to most Australians, and the Coalition is the more pro-Trump party. If the stock market continues to fall, this will undermine support for Trump’s economic agenda.

    Trump has been threatening Canada with tariffs for much longer than Australia, and the centre-left governing Liberals have surged back in the polls to a near-tie with the Conservatives from over 20 points behind, and have taken the lead since Mark Carney’s March 9 election as Liberal leader.

    Labor retains lead in YouGov

    A national YouGov poll, conducted March 7–13 from a sample of 1,526, gave Labor a 51–49 lead, unchanged from the February 28 to March 6 YouGov poll. YouGov is conducting weekly polls, and the previous poll was the first Labor lead in YouGov since July 2024.

    Primary votes were 36% Coalition (steady), 31% Labor (steady), 13.5% Greens (up 0.5), 7.5% One Nation (up 0.5), 1% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 9% independents (down one) and 2% others (steady). YouGov is using weaker preference flows for Labor than occurred in 2022, and by 2022 flows Labor would have a lead above 52–48.

    Albanese’s net approval improved three points to -6, with 49% dissatisfied and 43% satisfied, while Dutton’s net approval slid two points to -6. Albanese led Dutton as better PM by an unchanged 45–39.

    Since the first weekly YouGov poll in late February, Albanese has gained six points on net approval while Dutton has slid four points. This is the first time Dutton has not had a better net approval than Albanese in YouGov since March 2024.

    On the ongoing conflict caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 69% of Australians thought we should stand with Ukraine President Zelensky, while 31% wanted us to stand with Trump.

    Labor regains lead in Morgan poll

    A national Morgan poll, conducted March 3–9 from a sample of 1,719, gave Labor a 51.5–48.5 lead by headline respondent preferences, a two-point gain for Labor since the February 24 to March 2 poll. This is Labor’s second lead in the last three Morgan polls, after they had trailed in this poll since November.

    Primary votes were 37% Coalition (down three), 30% Labor (up 1.5), 13.5% Greens (steady), 5% One Nation (up one), 10.5% independents (steady) and 4% others (up 0.5). By 2022 election flows, Labor led by 52–48, a two-point gain for Labor.

    By 51.5–33, respondents said the country was going in the wrong direction (52–31.5 previously). Morgan’s consumer confidence index was down 0.8 points to 86.9.

    Poll of teal-held seats has the teals struggling

    Freshwater took a poll for the News Corporation tabloids of six seats held by teal independents. These are Curtin in WA, Goldstein and Kooyong in Victoria and Mackellar, Warringah and Wentworth in NSW. The poll was conducted March 5–7 from an overall sample of 830.

    Across the six seats polled, the Liberals had a 51–49 lead, representing a 5% swing to the Liberals since the 2022 election. On these figures, the Liberals would gain four of these teal seats (Curtin, Goldstein, Kooyong and Mackellar).

    Primary votes were 41% Liberals (up two since 2022), 33% teals (steady), 7% Labor (down six), 7% Greens (down two) and 12% others (up six). Albanese and Dutton were tied at 39–39 on better PM. By 47–42, respondents opposed their local MP backing an Albanese Labor minority government.

    The YouGov MRP poll that was conducted between late January and mid-February from a sample of over 40,000 had all the teals holding their seats. At the March 8 Western Australian election, swings to the Liberals were lowest in affluent Perth seats.

    WA election late counting

    With 70% of enrolled voters counted for the WA election, the ABC is calling 43 of the 59 lower house seats for Labor, six for the Liberals, four for the Nationals and six seats remain undecided. The Poll Bludger has Labor ahead in 47 seats, with the Liberals and Nationals ahead in six seats each.

    On election night, it had appeared likely that an independent would win Labor-held Fremantle. However, the independent has performed badly on absent and postal votes, and Labor will retain.

    In the upper house, all 37 seats are elected by statewide proportional representation with preferences, and a quota for election is just 2.63%. With 63% of enrolled counted, Labor has 15.8 quotas, the Liberals 10.5, the Greens 4.1, the Nationals 2.1, One Nation 1.35, Legalise Cannabis and the Australian Christians 1.0 each, an independent group 0.48 and Animal Justice 0.43.

    On current figures, Labor will win 16 seats, the Liberals ten, the Greens four, the Nationals two, One Nation, Legalise Cannabis and the Christians one each and two seats are unclear (Liberals, independent group and Animal Justice contesting). Counting of absents in the lower house has hurt the Liberals, so their vote is likely to drop further. Labor and the Greens will have a combined upper house majority.

    Liberals hold Port Macquarie at NSW byelection

    A byelection occurred on Saturday in the New South Wales Liberal-held state seat of Port Macquarie. Labor did not contest after finishing third behind the Nationals and Liberals at the 2023 NSW election with 19.2%.

    With 59% of enrolled counted, The Poll Bludger is projecting that the Liberals will defeat the Nationals by 52.8–47.2, a 7.9% swing to the Nationals since 2023. Current primary votes are 34.2% Liberals (down 4.1%), 31.2% Nationals (up 5.5%), 12.8% for an independent (new), 10.7% Greens (up 3.7%) and 7.9% Legalise Cannabis (up 3.4%).

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Gains for Labor as they lead in three of last five polls – https://theconversation.com/gains-for-labor-as-they-lead-in-three-of-last-five-polls-252016

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Chinese only introduced a feminine pronoun in the 1920s. Now, it might adopt a gender-inclusive one

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Janet Davey, PhD Candidate, Australian Centre on China in the World, Australian National University

    Andra C Taylor Jr/Unsplash

    Including pronouns in introductions, your email signature or your social media bio may seem like a minor detail. Pronouns are just small words we use in place of names all the time. But, like names, pronouns have personal significance. They say something about who we are.

    Trans, nonbinary and gender-diverse people face many issues more pressing than pronouns, including health and educational disparities and disproportionately higher rates of abuse, violence and discrimination. Getting pronouns right is a simple thing everyone can do to show respect.

    Linguistic shifts towards gender inclusivity are occurring worldwide, and the use of gender-neutral or inclusive pronouns is not a new nor exclusively Western phenomenon.

    Chinese, one of the world’s oldest languages and spoken by more than one billion people, illustrates how languages adapt to reflect shifting understanding of gender. Its pronoun system may be on the cusp of significant change.

    Developing pronouns

    In my newly published research, I’ve explored what is happening with Chinese third-person pronouns.

    The modern Chinese pronoun system is fascinating for two reasons.

    First, gendered pronouns have only been part of the Chinese language for 100 years: the feminine pronoun 她 (she) was only adopted in the 1920s.

    Second, although there are now distinct Chinese characters for “he”, 他, and “she”, 她, these are both pronounced tā in Mandarin. You can have a whole conversation about someone without revealing their gender.

    The lack of gender-distinct pronouns in spoken Mandarin has prompted calls for written Chinese to follow suit. Queer Chinese speakers have proposed several gender-inclusive pronouns that would be pronounced tā, just like 他 (he) and 她 (she).

    Queer Chinese speakers have proposed several gender-inclusive pronouns.
    Mogome01/Shutterstock

    These include the romanised form “TA” and new Chinese characters 「⿰无也」 and 「⿰㐅也」. These new characters might look strange: they are written like this to clarify that they should be read as one Chinese character. Currently, they take up the space of two Chinese characters because they are not yet in Unicode and cannot be typed properly.

    Other people hope to see the now-masculine 他 regain its original function as an ungendered pronoun.

    What pronouns do queer Chinese speakers use?

    To understand how Chinese pronouns are changing, I surveyed more than 100 queer Chinese speakers across 12 countries. I asked survey respondents, a third of whom were nonbinary or otherwise gender-diverse, about their pronoun preferences and perceptions. I also analysed how pronouns are used in a large database of contemporary Chinese texts.

    My research found gender-inclusive pronouns accounted for about a quarter of first-choice pronouns, and nearly half of all pronouns used by survey respondents. TA was overwhelmingly preferred by gender-diverse individuals (70%), with the English “they” (20%) the next most popular option.

    While cisgender and transgender men almost exclusively used masculine pronouns, cis and trans women showed significant openness to using gender-inclusive pronouns alongside feminine ones. After 她 (she), TA was the second most common pronoun for women (40%) and second most common overall (17%).

    Notably, 他 (he) was not used by any women or gender-diverse people, except one who considered it gender-neutral. This suggests reviving its original ungendered usage may be difficult.

    Survey participants were overwhelmingly positive about TA.
    Chay_Tee/Shutterstock

    TA emerged as the most recognised gender-inclusive pronoun, with nearly all respondents (97%) familiar with it regardless of their age, gender, region or language background. In contrast, fewer than 8% had encountered the new character-based pronouns 「⿰无也」 or「⿰㐅也」 and no one reported using them.

    What makes TA so popular?

    Survey participants were overwhelmingly positive about TA, with 63% expressing favourable views. As one respondent explained:

    The look and feel is good, it suits people’s everyday pronunciation habits, and doesn’t create issues with having to specify someone’s gender.

    TA functions similarly to English singular “they”. It works in two ways: as a gender-neutral pronoun when gender is unknown (like saying “someone left their umbrella”), and as a gender-inclusive pronoun specifically including gender-diverse people.

    Many survey respondents called TA “respectful” and “inclusive” but also simply “convenient”.

    However, some respondents were concerned TA is “untraditional” and “pollutes the Chinese language”.

    Practical considerations for using emerging Chinese pronouns also extend to the technical challenges of typing new Chinese characters. Before a new character can be typed on computers or phones, it needs to be officially encoded in Unicode, the global standard for digital text.

    My research shows this requirement is strongly influencing which emerging Chinese pronouns can gain traction.

    While some survey respondents hoped to see a gender-inclusive Chinese character adopted, they weren’t optimistic about 「⿰无也」or 「⿰㐅也」 becoming mainstream.

    As one noted:

    「⿰无也」is good, but it’s hard to type and it takes a long time to explain.

    User-friendly and easily understandable

    TA is currently the most popular emerging Chinese gender-inclusive pronoun, crucially because it mimics how people use tā in spoken Mandarin.

    It is already part of people’s vocabulary, and already used (at least as a gender-neutral pronoun) by mainstream Chinese media and on online platforms.

    This 2023 TEDxSuzhouWomen talk is titled ‘We are all gender misfits’ (你我ta都是”性别酷儿)

    Unlike other recently proposed pronouns, TA is versatile, user-friendly and easily understandable for queer and non-queer Chinese speakers alike. This makes TA a strong contender for widespread adoption into contemporary Chinese.

    Like the introduction of a Chinese feminine pronoun 她 (she) in the 1920s, the emergence of TA as a gender-inclusive pronoun in the 2020s is about recognising a wider spectrum of identities.

    Pronouns are not a political statement, just a personal statement. When you use someone’s correct pronouns, you’re saying, “I see you, and I respect who you are”. That’s something worth talking about, in any language.

    Janet Davey is supported by an Australian Government Research Training Program (RTP) Scholarship.

    – ref. Chinese only introduced a feminine pronoun in the 1920s. Now, it might adopt a gender-inclusive one – https://theconversation.com/chinese-only-introduced-a-feminine-pronoun-in-the-1920s-now-it-might-adopt-a-gender-inclusive-one-221013

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Whatever happens to Star, the age of unfettered gambling revenue for casinos may have ended

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Charles Livingstone, Associate Professor, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University

    Casino operator Star Entertainment has been under financial pressure for some time. The company’s share price has tanked, and the business, with its three casino properties, has been bleeding money.

    Last year’s opening of a new riverside casino in Queen’s Wharf, Brisbane, was seen as a way to revitalise the business. But Star has swung from one lifeline to another.

    Just as it was set to run out of cash on Friday March 7, Star announced a last-minute rescue package. This centred on selling its 50% stake in the Queens Wharf casino to Hong-Kong-based joint venture partners for $53 million.

    Star has also started documentation for a $250 million bridging loan but still needs to finalise a proposal for long-term refinancing.

    All of this remains subject to details being finalised, and regulatory approvals. An alternative $250 million takeover offer from US casino operator Bally’s currently isn’t Star’s preference because it is considered too low.

    But Star is far from out of the woods yet. Whatever happens to it and its casino assets, there are bigger questions about whether the age of unfettered gambling revenue for casinos may have already ended.

    Elsewhere, gambling is booming

    If Australian casinos are struggling, it’s not because punters are giving up gambling. Whereas most of the gambling market recovered rapidly after the end of pandemic restrictions, casinos floundered.

    Between 2018–19 and 2022–23, before and after pandemic restrictions were in place, total Australian gambling expenditure (in other words, gamblers’ losses) grew by 6.8% in real terms (adjusted for inflation).

    Real wagering losses grew by 45%. This segment has clearly emerged as the second-biggest gambling market in the country, with gambling expenditure of $8.4 billion.

    But over the same period, expenditure at casinos declined by more than 35% nationally, and by 42% in New South Wales.



    Read more:
    The rate of sports betting has surged more than 57% – and younger people are betting more

    Do casinos have a viable business model?

    Both Star and Australia’s other major casino operator, Crown, have emerged from a range of high-profile scandals in recent years.

    Media reporting, inquiries, and royal commissions into Crown, and then Star, give some insight into how the casino business used to be run in Australia.

    Star’s (and Crown’s) business model appears to have previously relied on two major revenue streams: benefiting from the proceeds of crime (by operating as a cash laundry for organised criminal gangs), and exploiting every vulnerable person who walked onto their premises.

    Both casinos facilitated money laundering, particularly via junket operators, organisers of casino visits by high rollers. Unfortunately, many of these people had strong links to organised crime gangs keen to launder their illegally acquired money.

    Former Star executives and board members are now facing Federal Court proceedings brought by ASIC, with two already having been fined.



    Read more:
    ‘Multiple red flags’: ASIC’s court case against Star executives shows the risks of complacency

    Star and Crown preyed on addiction

    Both Star and Crown were also found to have encouraged significant expenditure by addicted gamblers.

    This wasn’t just high rollers. Ordinary people were also encouraged to use poker machines for hours without any attempt at encouraging a break, as mandated by “responsible gambling” codes.

    The Victorian Royal Commissioner, investigating Crown, regarded its “responsible gambling” failures as particularly heinous.

    The result was the turnover of the board and management, hundreds of millions of dollars in fines, and increased regulatory oversight.

    Although neither casino chain closed its doors, regulatory breaches led to appointment of special managers to oversee the business and hold the licences. Further change included beefing up regulators’ powers and resources.

    Turning a page

    Without significant funds from the proceeds of crime, or exploitation of the vulnerable, casinos are clearly struggling.

    In NSW and Victoria, the casinos have been required to introduce “cashless gaming” systems.

    This takes cash out of the system, deterring money launderers. Gamblers must also set a limit on their gambling spend, and adhere to it. The system is in the process of being introduced in Queensland.

    Certainly, overcapitalisation of new developments has played a part in casinos’ struggles. Crown Melbourne was effectively sold to Kerry Packer in 1998 on the back of its own financial issues. Overcapitalisation of the business was seen as an issue then.

    Stronger competition

    Competition from online wagering and pokie venues may also be playing a part. These businesses are not currently regulated as effectively as casinos.

    Precommitment systems for online wagering would be relatively easy to introduce. They would require punters to set a limit on deposits or bets, or indeed the time they spend gambling, and enforce these technically.

    Getting these in place, however, may be as formidable a task as getting gambling ads banned from sporting broadcasts, if not more so.

    The gambling industry understandably opposes this. After all, these measures would reduce the amount that people lose. From a public health perspective, however, they provide an effective system to prevent harm in the first place, rather than simply picking up the pieces.

    Without effective reform of local gambling venues and online wagering, casinos may try to mount an argument for less effective regulation. That would be an admission that their “tourism” attractiveness has waned. It’s also a powerful argument to speed up the transition of effective regulation to all gambling operators.

    Charles Livingstone has received funding from the Victorian Responsible Gambling Foundation, the (former) Victorian Gambling Research Panel, and the South Australian Independent Gambling Authority (the funds for which were derived from hypothecation of gambling tax revenue to research purposes), from the Australian and New Zealand School of Government and the Foundation for Alcohol Research and Education, and from non-government organisations for research into multiple aspects of poker machine gambling, including regulatory reform, existing harm minimisation practices, and technical characteristics of gambling forms. He has received travel and co-operation grants from the Alberta Problem Gambling Research Institute, the Finnish Institute for Public Health, the Finnish Alcohol Research Foundation, the Ontario Problem Gambling Research Committee, the Turkish Red Crescent Society, and the Problem Gambling Foundation of New Zealand. He was a Chief Investigator on an Australian Research Council funded project researching mechanisms of influence on government by the tobacco, alcohol and gambling industries. He has undertaken consultancy research for local governments and non-government organisations in Australia and the UK seeking to restrict or reduce the concentration of poker machines and gambling impacts, and was a member of the Australian government’s Ministerial Expert Advisory Group on Gambling in 2010-11. He is a member of the Lancet Public Health Commission into gambling, and of the World Health Organisation expert group on gambling and gambling harm. He made a submission to and appeared before the HoR Standing Committee on Social Policy and Legal Affairs inquiry into online gambling and its impacts on those experiencing gambling harm.

    – ref. Whatever happens to Star, the age of unfettered gambling revenue for casinos may have ended – https://theconversation.com/whatever-happens-to-star-the-age-of-unfettered-gambling-revenue-for-casinos-may-have-ended-251248

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How long will you live? New evidence says its much more about your choices than your genes

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University

    Rawpixel.com/Shutterstock

    One of the most enduring questions humans have is how long we’re going to live. With this comes the question of how much of our lifespan is shaped by our environment and choices, and how much is predetermined by our genes.

    A study recently published in the prestigious journal Nature Medicine has attempted for the first time to quantify the relative contributions of our environment and lifestyle versus our genetics in how we age and how long we live.

    The findings were striking, suggesting our environment and lifestyle play a much greater role than our genes in determining our longevity.

    What the researchers did

    This study used data from the UK Biobank, a large database in the United Kingdom that contains in-depth health and lifestyle data from roughly 500,000 people. The data available include genetic information, medical records, imaging and information about lifestyle.

    A separate part of the study used data from a subset of more than 45,000 participants whose blood samples underwent something called “proteomic profiling”.

    Proteomic profiling is a relatively new technique that looks at how proteins in the body change over time to identify a person’s age at a molecular level. By using this method researchers were able to estimate how quickly an individual’s body was actually ageing. This is called their biological age, as opposed to their chronological age (or years lived).

    The researchers assessed 164 environmental exposures as well as participants’ genetic markers for disease. Environmental exposures included lifestyle choices (for example, smoking, physical activity), social factors (for example, living conditions, household income, employment status) and early life factors, such as body weight in childhood.

    They then looked for associations between genetics and environment and 22 major age-related diseases (such as coronary artery disease and type 2 diabetes), mortality and biological ageing (as determined by the proteomic profiling).

    These analyses allowed the researchers to estimate the relative contributions of environmental factors and genetics to ageing and dying prematurely.

    What did they find?

    When it came to disease-related mortality, as we would expect, age and sex explained a significant amount (about half) of the variation in how long people lived. The key finding, however, was environmental factors collectively accounted for around 17% of the variation in lifespan, while genetic factors contributed less than 2%.

    This finding comes down very clearly on the nurture side in the “nature versus nurture” debate. It suggests environmental factors influence health and longevity to a far greater extent than genetics.

    Not unexpectedly, the study showed a different mix of environmental and genetic influences for different diseases. Environmental factors had the greatest impact on lung, heart and liver disease, while genetics played the biggest role in determining a person’s risk of breast, ovarian and prostate cancers, and dementia.

    The environmental factors that had the most influence on earlier death and biological ageing included smoking, socioeconomic status, physical activity levels and living conditions.

    Genetic factors affected the risk of some diseases more than others.
    Kleber Cordeiro/Shutterstock

    Interestingly, being taller at age ten was found to be associated with a shorter lifespan. Although this may seem surprising, and the reasons are not entirely clear, this aligns with previous research finding taller people are more likely to die earlier.

    Carrying more weight at age ten and maternal smoking (if your mother smoked in late pregnancy or when you were a newborn) were also found to shorten lifespan.

    Probably the most surprising finding in this study was a lack of association between diet and markers of biological ageing, as determined by the proteomic profiling. This flies in the face of the extensive body of evidence showing the crucial role of dietary patterns in chronic disease risk and longevity.

    But there are a number of plausible explanations for this. The first could be a lack of statistical power in the part of the study looking at biological ageing. That is, the number of people studied may have been too small to allow the researchers to see the true impact of diet on ageing.

    Second, the dietary data in this study, which was self-reported and only measured at one time point, is likely to have been of relatively poor quality, limiting the researchers’ ability to see associations. And third, as the relationship between diet and longevity is likely to be complex, disentangling dietary effects from other lifestyle factors may be difficult.

    So despite this finding, it’s still safe to say the food we eat is one of the most important pillars of health and longevity.

    What other limitations do we need to consider?

    Key exposures (such as diet) in this study were only measured at a single point in time, and not tracked over time, introducing potential errors into the results.

    Also, as this was an observational study, we can’t assume associations found represent causal relationships. For example, just because living with a partner correlated with a longer lifespan, it doesn’t mean this caused a person to live longer. There may be other factors which explain this association.

    Finally, it’s possible this study may have underestimated the role of genetics in longevity. It’s important to recognise genetics and environment don’t operate in isolation. Rather, health outcomes are shaped by their interplay, and this study may not have fully captured the complexity of these interactions.

    This study found environmental factors influence health and longevity to a far greater extent than genetics.
    Ground Picture/Shutterstock

    The future is (largely) in your hands

    It’s worth noting there were a number of factors such as household income, home ownership and employment status associated with diseases of ageing in this study that are not necessarily within a person’s control. This highlights the crucial role of addressing the social determinants of health to ensure everyone has the best possible chance of living a long and healthy life.

    At the same time, the results offer an empowering message that longevity is largely shaped by the choices we make. This is great news, unless you have good genes and were hoping they would do the heavy lifting.

    Ultimately, the results of this study reinforce the notion that while we may inherit certain genetic risks, how we eat, move and engage with the world seems to be more important in determining how healthy we are and how long we live.

    Hassan Vally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How long will you live? New evidence says its much more about your choices than your genes – https://theconversation.com/how-long-will-you-live-new-evidence-says-its-much-more-about-your-choices-than-your-genes-251054

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia’s next government may well be in minority. Here’s how that can be a good outcome for the country

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shamit Saggar, Executive Director, Australian Centre for Student Equity and Success and Professor of Public Policy, Curtin University

    Two months out from an Australian federal election, the polling is pointing to a very tight race between the two major parties. This means, if the polls are correct, neither party will likely win enough seats to command a parliamentary working majority.

    Australia’s most recent experience of a hung parliament was the Gillard-Rudd government of 2010–13. Many still see that as an unhappy era, with internal division within Labor’s party room in Canberra, and yet another leadership coup, as the lasting, bitter memory.

    So, it is time to reassess whether – or how well – Australia might be governed in similar circumstances.

    Building a stable coalition

    The answer depends on us being open to the meaning of a stable, inter-party coalition. This is particularly tricky in Australia for three reasons. First, although the political parties themselves are coalitions of philosophies and factions, this is often masked by high levels of party discipline. With very few exceptions, MPs elected through the major parties pretty much do as they are told when they go to Canberra.

    Second, the popular vote share that goes to the two major parties has been in long-term decline, from about 90% 40 years ago, to about 70% of late. The drift hasn’t just gone towards populist insurgents and protests, but increasingly to the benefit of the Greens and, more recently, the Teals. The national preferential voting system pushes candidates to compete in the traditional left-right middle ground. But this overlooks the fact that some voters’ sympathies lie in single-issue campaigns.

    Third, and most importantly, our model of minority government is conspicuously one-dimensional. For instance, party leaders and managers think purely in terms of confidence and supply agreements. These are important, of course, but they provide artificial stability by limiting disagreement in parliament that might bring down a government.

    One eye-catching proposition for stable minority government involves Labor and the Coalition coming together to agree not to topple the other for an arbitrary period of half a parliamentary term.

    There are several better options. The UK’s Conservatives and Liberal Democrats ran a joint government from 2010–15, with some distinction. A big party and small party formed a coalition, and once they had agreed to disagree, they ringfenced specific policy areas as belonging to one party and the other party signed up to it as a policy priority of the whole government. This resulted in the full implementation of their respectively most prized policies.

    And just two months ago, Ireland’s centre-right Fianna Fáil and Fine Gail parties, working with unaligned independents and a more formal Independent Ireland, came up with similar coalition agreement.

    The inference is that stable multi-party government involves a mature negotiation on the issues, priorities and policies that can unite across party lines. It also requires a readiness to prioritise policy issues within parties.

    Of course, this is an indirect way of asking if the Teals can and wish to operate as a de facto party. And while the Greens are a political party to begin with, the extent of their party discipline has not been tested to the full.

    Meanwhile, there is evidence of pressure to keep both the Teals and Greens at a distance from any such agreement, with reports that lobby groups for the hospitality and coal sectors respectively will fund major party candidates to help defeat hostile crossbenchers.

    As politicians mull these challenges, we should consider the likely “safe” issues – as against the “tricky” ones – in the coming parliament that a stable minority government or coalition would face. Their appetite to govern will be affected accordingly.

    ‘Safe’ and ‘tricky’ issues in a minority government

    From Labor’s perspective, the nucleus is around a disparate set of economic and social modernisation policies. Since many of these have begun in this parliament, the focus in the next will be on pursuing them to full implementation.

    For the Coalition, reshaping tax and spending, increasing housing affordability checking workplace employee rights and a bold nuclear power proposal sit at the core. This is accompanied by wariness of immigration and identity politics. Survey research points to its broad appeal certainly but less is known about the depth of this support.

    Finding a middle path on these issues that would satisfy enough crossbenchers to help one of the major parties form government will be the challenge. It is not necessarily a bad outcome for the nation. But it means all MPs will have to take into account the greatly enhanced premium on stable government before any serious horse-trading happens.

    Shamit Saggar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Australia’s next government may well be in minority. Here’s how that can be a good outcome for the country – https://theconversation.com/australias-next-government-may-well-be-in-minority-heres-how-that-can-be-a-good-outcome-for-the-country-252162

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Three years after Russia’s invasion, a global online army is still fighting for Ukraine

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olga Boichak, Senior Lecturer in Digital Cultures, Australian Research Council DECRA fellow, University of Sydney

    More than three years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, a 30-day ceasefire between the two warring countries may be imminent. But much more needs to happen before a just and lasting peace is achieved.

    The Russian-Ukraine war is one of the most visible, analysed and documented wars in human history. Since the night of February 24 2022, millions of Ukrainian citizens, military personnel, journalists, officials and civil society activists have shared first-hand eyewitness accounts, updates, commentaries and opinions on the war.

    Around the world, many online communities have also sprung into action to counter Russian propaganda and raise awareness of what is happening inside Ukraine.

    We have been studying these communities for the past three years, conducting hours of interviews with members and observing their activity on social media. To conduct much of this research and connect with members, we had to join some of these communities – a common requirement for researchers working in online settings.

    Our work reveals a range of skills and strategies activists use in the online fight against Russia. More broadly, it shows how social media users can mobilise during times of war and other international crises and have a material impact offline.

    Russian war of disinformation

    Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was accompanied by online disinformation and propaganda campaigns. The aims of these campaigns are to sow discord, distrust and dismay among both Ukrainian and international audiences by, for example, depicting Ukraine as a failed state ruled by Nazis.

    Ukraine responded by launching its own information operations to counter Russian propaganda, appeal for help from the world and maintain the security of its defensive operations.

    In some cases, social media platforms have aided the Russian cause. At the same time, they have suppressed evidence of war crimes.

    For example, in the first year of the Russian invasion, independent investigative journalism organisations such as Disclose documented thousands of war crimes committed by Russian soldiers against Ukrainian civilians. These crimes included murder, torture, physical and sexual violence, forced relocation, looting, and damage to civilian infrastructure such as schools and hospitals.

    Much of this content included graphic imagery, violence and offensive language. As a result, it was permanently removed from platforms such as Instagram and YouTube.

    On the other hand, content containing disinformation evaded moderation. For example, a 2023 investigation by the BBC revealed thousands of fake TikTok accounts created as part of a Russian propaganda campaign spreading lies about Ukrainian officials.

    This often led to a distorted information environment online. Russian disinformation was visible, while the true extent of Russian violence against Ukrainians was hidden.

    Boosting Ukrainian voices

    In this context, thousands of internet users formed online communities to creatively support Ukraine without attracting the attention of content moderators.

    This isn’t new or unique to the war in Ukraine. For example, in 2019, US TikToker Feroza Aziz shared a makeup tutorial in which she subtly raised awareness of China’s treatment of the Uyghurs – a topic that is often suppressed on the Chinese-owned platform.

    One of the most prominent and well-known online communities that emerged following Russia’s invasion was the North Atlantic Fella Organisation.

    It started in May 2022 when a young man with the online name Kama mashed up a Reddit meme of a Shiba Inu dog nicknamed Cheems and a picture of a dilapidated Russian tank. This was a celebration of a Ukrainian battlefront victory. It was only intended to mock Russia.

    But as Kama changed his profile picture to the meme, the trend started spreading quickly to his followers on X (formerly Twitter). They quickly grew into an online collective dedicated to fighting Russia online. Members – or “fellas”, as they are known – from many regions around the world were brought together by its rituals using internet and popular culture memes.

    Calls to action

    In many similar posts across Facebook, X and TikTok, users share selfies or other images to achieve high visibility while calling followers to action. In most cases, this involves raising funds for urgent military or humanitarian efforts to benefit Ukraine.

    Another common strategy is storytelling. Some users share amusing or ridiculous anecdotes from their lives before closing with a donation request.

    These requests often have a clear target and beneficiary. They are also often time-sensitive. For example, they may be aimed at purchasing a particular model of a drone for a particular brigade of Ukraine’s armed forces that will be delivered to the battlefront within days.

    Through collaborations with Ukraine’s official fundraising platform, the North Atlantic Fella Organisation has collected more than US$700,000 towards Ukraine’s defence.

    Combatting propaganda

    Members of the North Atlantic Fella Organisation also try to combat Russian propaganda and disinformation.

    Instead of arguing in good faith with highly visible disinformation-spreading accounts (often controlled by the Russian government), members try to derail the disinformation campaigns. They highlight their ridiculousness by responding with memes and jokes. They call this practice “shitposting”.

    People spreading Russian disinformation often find themselves annoyed by the swarms of “meme dogs” in their replies. This has led some to respond aggressively. In turn, this has allowed North Atlantic Fella Organisation members to report them for violation of X’s terms of service and have their accounts suspended, as our forthcoming research documents.

    However, from late 2022 onward, North Atlantic Fella Organisation members we interviewed as a part of our research reported decreased effectiveness of X’s response to problematic user conduct. This was soon after tech billionaire Elon Musk bought the social media platform.

    Despite this, members continue to support each other and develop playful tactics to ensure they remain visible on the platform.

    It seems war will continue online for as long as Russia wages its war on Ukraine’s territory.

    Olga Boichak has received funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a director of the Ukrainian Studies Foundation in Australia and an executive committee member of the Ukrainian Studies Association of Australia and New Zealand. She has been a member of the North Atlantic Fella Organisation since 2022 for research purposes.

    Kateryna Kasianenko has been a member of the North Atlantic Fella Organisation since 2022 for research purposes.

    – ref. Three years after Russia’s invasion, a global online army is still fighting for Ukraine – https://theconversation.com/three-years-after-russias-invasion-a-global-online-army-is-still-fighting-for-ukraine-251480

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: When is workplace chat ‘just gossip’ and when is it ‘sharing information’? It depends who’s doing it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By James Greenslade-Yeats, Research Fellow in Management, Auckland University of Technology

    THEBILLJR/Shutterstock

    When two junior employees bump into each other in the corridor and start chatting about their manager’s overbearing manner, it’s typically considered gossip. But what about when two managers have an off-record catch-up to discuss an under-performing employee?

    Both scenarios meet traditional definitions of gossip – the information being shared is about other people, the people it’s about are absent, the information is shared in a way that casts judgement on those people, and it’s informal. Yet the two situations are viewed very differently.

    What counts as gossip is much more slippery than we might think. I reviewed 184 academic articles to understand what really constitutes workplace gossip.

    The key, I found, is not any set of objective criteria, but rather people’s shared agreement that a situation counts as gossip.

    This understanding of gossip helps us make sense of the “workplace gossip paradox” – the idea that gossip can be considered both a reliable source of social information (“the inside word”) and an unreliable information source (“just gossip”).

    My work also provides insights into how businesses can manage gossip before it becomes a scandal.

    Knowledge is power – but power controls knowledge

    How does recognising the slipperiness of gossip help us understand the workplace paradox? The answer has to do with the role of power in legitimising information.

    Leaders and managers need information to justify action. If a manager is going to investigate a sexual harassment claim, they can’t do so based solely on a hunch. They need to hear about from it someone.

    If the victim of sexual harassment complains directly to their manager, an investigation is automatically justified. But what if the manager hears about harassment indirectly and unofficially (for example, through “gossip”), with the added complication that the alleged perpetrator is another manager?

    If the manager does something about what they’ve heard and the source turns out to be unreliable, they could face negative consequences for acting on what was essentially “just gossip.” But if they don’t act, and the information turns out to be credible, they could face repercussions for ignoring the “inside word.”

    There is evidence that such paradoxical situations play out quite frequently in real-world workplaces. For example, inside information about negligence towards patient safety in healthcare settings has, in the past, been dismissed as “just gossip” until it provoked a public scandal.

    The same thing happened in a university where gossip shared through a “whisper network” was eventually corroborated by an independent inquiry. In this case, the inquiry also found official complaints had been ignored.

    One case study from the United States found managers tended to keep an ear out for information passing through the grapevine and selectively use it to further their own interests.

    If gossip threatened their power, they repressed it as “just gossip”. But if gossip provided “useful” information – ammunition against a subversive employee, for example – management legitimised gossip as “official information”.

    To avoid workplace scandals when gossip is ignored, managers should co-opt the information and make it safe to address anti-social behaviour.
    La Famiglia/Shutterstock

    How to manage the workplace gossip paradox

    To avoid scandals stemming from when gossip is ignored, managers might consider “co-opting” gossip, bringing it into official communication channels.

    But there’s a problem with this approach. Gossip gains its credibility as the inside word because it takes place outside official communication channels. Therefore, if managers try to co-opt gossip into formal management processes, it’s likely to have the unintended consequence of discrediting the shared information.

    Instead, “managing gossip” requires a better understanding of its functions and motivations.

    One function is to reduce uncertainty. Research suggests gossip often arises to fill information gaps. For example, people might speculate about a manager’s salary by gossiping about their expensive car or holiday.

    Such gossip is likely to be exaggerated and counterproductive. However, it could be managed simply by being transparent about staff salaries, filling the information gap before gossip does.

    Another key function of gossip is to warn against antisocial behaviours like bullying. But if employees feel comfortable speaking up about such behaviour — even when it’s perpetrated by those with official power – managers will not face the dilemma of whether to act on information that could turn out to be “just gossip.”

    Gossip is a slippery and paradoxical form of communication. Some would say it’s unmanageable. But what can be managed are the workplace behaviours and hierarchical relationships that gossip loves to sink its teeth into.

    The author would like to acknowledge Trish Corner, Helena Cooper-Thomas and Rachel Morrison for their contributions to developing this research.

    James Greenslade-Yeats does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When is workplace chat ‘just gossip’ and when is it ‘sharing information’? It depends who’s doing it – https://theconversation.com/when-is-workplace-chat-just-gossip-and-when-is-it-sharing-information-it-depends-whos-doing-it-251242

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cyclone Alfred to cost budget $1.2 billion, hit growth and push up inflation: Chalmers

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Cyclone Alfred will cost the March 25 budget at least A$1.2 billion, hit growth and put pressure on inflation, Treasurer Jim Chalmers says.

    In a Tuesday speech previewing the budget, Chalmers will also say that on preliminary estimates, the cyclone’s immediate hit to GDP is expected to be up to $1.2 billion, which could wipe a quarter of a percentage point off quarterly growth.

    “It could also lead to upward pressure on inflation. From building costs to damaged crops raising prices for staples like fruit and vegetables,” Chalmers says in the speech, an extract of which has been released ahead of delivery.

    The treasurer says the temporary shutting of businesses due to the cyclone lost about 12 million work hours.

    By last Thursday, 44,000 insurance claims had been lodged. Early modelling indicated losses covered by the Cyclone Reinsurance Pool were about $1.7 billion.

    The estimated costs to the budget, which are over the forward estimates period, are preliminary.

    The government has already co-sponsored with the states $30 million in support for immediate recovery costs, Chalmers says. Millions of dollars are being provided in hardship payments.

    “The budget will reflect some of those immediate costs and we’ll make sensible provisions for more to come,” he says.

    “I expect that these costs and these new provisions will be in the order of at least $1.2 billion […] and that means a big new pressure on the budget.”

    This is in addition to the already budgeted for disaster relief.

    “At MYEFO, we’d already booked $11.6 billion for disaster support nationally over the forward estimates.

    “With all of this extra funding we expect that to rise to at least $13.5 billion when accounting for our provisioning, social security costs and other disaster related support.”

    Chalmers will again argue in the speech his recent theme – that the economy has turned a corner. This is despite the global uncertainty that includes the Trump tariff policies, the full extent of which is yet to be spelled out.

    Australia is bracing for the possibility our beef export trade could be caught in a new tariff round to be unveiled early next month.

    Despite last week’s rebuff to its efforts to get an exemption from the aluminium and steel 25% tariffs, the government has vowed to fight on for a carve out from that, as well as trying to head off any further imposts on exports to the US.

    In seeking the exemption, Australia was unsuccessful in trying to leverage its abundance of critical minerals, which are much sought after by the US.

    Trade Minister Don Farrell told Sky on Sunday:

    What we need to do is find out what it is that the Americans want in terms of this relationship between Australia and the United States and then make President Trump an offer he can’t refuse.

    In Tuesday’s speech, Chalmers is expected to say the budget will contain fewer surprises than might be the case with other budgets.

    This is because this budget – which would have been avoided if the cyclone had not ruled out an April 12 election – comes after the flurry of announcements already made this year and before further announcements in the campaign for the May election.

    Those announcements already made include:

    • $8.5 billion to boost Medicare

    • $644 million for new Urgent Care Clinics

    • a multi-billion dollar package to save Whyalla Steelworks

    • $7.2 billion for the Bruce Highway and other infrastructure

    • funds for enhanced childcare and to provide some
      student debt relief

    • new and amended listings for contraception, endometriosis and IVF on the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme.



    Read more:
    Labor and the Coalition have pledged to raise GP bulk billing. Here’s what the Medicare boost means for patients

    Deloitte Access Economics in its budget monitor predicts the budget will have a deficit of $26.1 billion for 2024-25.

    Deloitte’s Stephen Smith said that although a $26.1 billion deficit was slightly smaller than forecast in the December budget update, the longer-term structural deterioration should be “a reality check for politicians wanting to announce election sweeteners in the weeks ahead”.

    Deloitte projects a deficit of nearly $50 billion in 2025-26.

    Open to a ‘small’ Ukraine peacekeeping role

    Over the weekend, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese took part in the “coalition of the willing” virtual meeting convened by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in support of Ukraine.

    The meeting also included Ukraine, France, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Greece, Italy, Poland, Bulgaria, the Scandinavian countries, Canada and New Zealand. The United States did not participate. President Donald Trump is trying to force an agreement between Ukraine and Russia to end the conflict.

    Albanese reiterated after the meeting: “Australia is open to considering any requests to contribute to a future peacekeeping effort in support of the just and lasting peace we all want to Ukraine”.

    He added the obvious point: “Of course, peacekeeping missions by definition require a precondition of peace”.

    Albanese said that any Australian contribution to a Ukraine peacekeeping force would be “small”.

    Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has opposed sending Australians to a peacekeeping force.



    Read more:
    Politics with Michelle Grattan: Peter Dutton on why he’s not Australia’s Trump – ‘I’m my own person’

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cyclone Alfred to cost budget $1.2 billion, hit growth and push up inflation: Chalmers – https://theconversation.com/cyclone-alfred-to-cost-budget-1-2billion-hit-growth-and-push-up-inflation-chalmers-252171

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Labor wins third successive landslide in WA election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne

    With 61% of enrolled voters counted in Saturday’s Western Australian election, the ABC is calling 40 of the 59 lower house seats for Labor, five for the Liberals and four for the Nationals, with ten remaining undecided.

    Vote shares are 41.8% Labor (down 18.1% since Labor’s massive 2021 win), 28.6% Liberals (up 7.3%), 5.1% Nationals (up 1.1%), 10.5% Greens (up 3.6%), 3.7% One Nation (up 2.4%), 3.1% Australian Christians (up 1.6%), 2.3% Legalise Cannabis (up 1.9%) and 3.6% independents (up 2.9%).

    While Labor had a big fall in its primary vote since winning 59.9% in 2021, this fall didn’t go directly to the Liberals and Nationals, with these parties’ combined votes up 8.4%.

    The ABC’s two-party estimate shows a Labor win by 58.3–41.7, an 11.3% swing to the Liberals and Nationals from the 69.7–30.3 Labor margin at the 2021 election, which was a record victory in Australia for either major party at any state or federal election.

    The Poll Bludger’s results have Labor leads in 45 of the 59 seats, the Liberals in seven, the Nationals in six and one independent lead. If these are the final numbers, Labor would lose eight seats from 2021, with the Liberals gaining five, the Nationals two and independents one.

    The Poll Bludger’s two-party estimate is a little worse for Labor than the ABC’s, with a Labor lead by 57.4–42.6, a 12.2% swing to the Liberals and Nationals. If the Poll Bludger’s two-party estimate is right, the final Newspoll and DemosAU polls will be correct, while if the ABC’s is right, they will have understated Labor.

    I said in my preview article that polls suggested that Labor would be well down on 2021, but that they would have a bigger win than in 2017 (41 of the 59 seats on a two-party vote of 55.5–44.5). The results show this will be the case. This will be the third landslide in a row for Labor in WA.

    Most seats have counted their pre-poll votes and postal votes that arrived before election day. Remaining votes will mostly be absent votes (pre-poll and election day). These votes were cast outside a voter’s home electorate, and need to be posted back to the home electorate before they can be counted. In past elections, absent votes have assisted Labor.

    There are also seats, such as Fremantle and Pilbara, where no two-candidate count has yet been provided. In those seats, the electoral commission initially selected the wrong two candidates and needs to re-do the two-candidate count. Fremantle is the only seat likely to be won by a non-major party candidate.

    Federal implications and the upper house

    I don’t think there are many federal implications from state elections, but this election will give a morale boost for federal Labor after losing the Queensland election last October and being narrowly behind the Coalition in the polls since December.

    When a state party is the same as the federal government, that party is federally dragged, and performs worse than it would if the opposite party held government federally. Labor’s big win does not suggest federal drag was a factor in WA.

    However, WA accounts for only 16 of the 150 federal seats. Victoria, where federal Labor is being dragged down by an unpopular state Labor government, has 38 seats.

    The Poll Bludger wrote that the Liberals had done poorly in swing terms since the 2021 election in affluent Perth seats, suggesting that affluent metropolitan federal seats won’t swing back to the Liberals, and teal independents should retain their seats.

    In my preview article, I wrote that during the last term Labor had scrapped the old very malapportioned upper house system, and all 37 upper house members will be elected by statewide proportional representation with preferences. A quota is 1/38 of the vote or 2.63%.

    In the upper house, 46.7% of enrolled voters have been counted, well behind the 61.3% in the lower house. Labor has 41.3%, the Liberals 27.9%, the Nationals 5.6%, the Greens 10.8%, One Nation 3.4%, Legalise Cannabis 2.8%, the Christians 2.6%, an independent group 1.3% and Animal Justice 1.1%.

    On current counts, Labor would win 15 of the 37 seats, the Liberals ten, the Nationals two, the Greens four, One Nation one, Legalise Cannabis one and the Christians one. That would leave three seats undecided, with Labor, the Liberals and the independent group ahead.

    However, there’s much more counting to go in the upper house, and the current counts don’t include below the line votes. The major parties do relatively badly on below the line votes and the Greens relatively well.

    Adrian Beaumont does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor wins third successive landslide in WA election – https://theconversation.com/labor-wins-third-successive-landslide-in-wa-election-251721

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: The EU will spend billions more on defence. It’s a powerful statement – but won’t do much for Ukraine

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jessica Genauer, Senior Lecturer in International Relations, Flinders University

    On March 3, US President Donald Trump paused all US military aid to Ukraine. This move was apparently triggered by a heated exchange a few days earlier between Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office.

    In response, European Union leaders have now committed to rearm Europe by mobilising €800 billion (about A$1.4 trillion) in defence spending.

    26 of the EU leaders (excluding Hungary) signed an agreement that peace for Ukraine must be accompanied by “robust and credible” security guarantees.

    They agreed there can be no negotiations on Ukraine without Ukraine’s participation. It was also agreed the EU will continue to provide regular military and non-military support to Ukraine.

    This jump in defence spending is unprecedented for the EU, with 2024 spending hitting a previous record high of €326 billion (A$558 billion).

    At the same time, the United Kingdom has committed to the biggest increase in defence spending since the Cold War.

    The EU’s united front will create strong defences and deter a direct attack on EU nations.

    However, for Ukraine, it will not lead to a military victory in its war with Russia. While Europe has stepped up funding, this is not sufficient for Ukraine to defeat Russian forces currently occupying about 20% of the country.

    For Ukraine, the withdrawal of US support will severely strain their ability to keep fighting. Ukraine will likely need to find a way to freeze the conflict this year. This may mean a temporary truce that does not formally cede Ukrainian territory to Russia.

    A Trumpian worldview

    The vastly different approaches of the US under Trump and the EU point to a deeper ideological divide.

    While the Trump administration has acted more quickly and assertively in foreign affairs than many expected, its approach is not surprising.

    Since Trump won the US presidential election in November last year, Europe and Ukraine have known that a shift in US policy would be on the cards.

    Trump’s approach to Ukraine is not only about economic concerns and withdrawing US military aid. It is about a deeper, more significant clash of worldviews.

    Trump (and, it appears, his core support base) hold a “great power politics” approach to world affairs.

    This approach assumes we live in a competitive world where countries are motivated to maximise gains and dominate. Outcomes can be achieved through punishments or rewards.

    Countries with greater military or economic strength “count” more. They are expected to impose their will on weaker countries. This viewpoint underpinned much of the colonial activity of the 19th and 20th centuries.

    This worldview expects conflict – and it expects stronger countries to “win”.

    Consistent with Trump’s outlook, Russia is a regional power that has the “right” to control smaller countries in its neighbourhood.

    Trump’s approach to Ukraine is not an anomaly. Nor is it a temporary and spontaneous measure to grab the global spotlight.

    Trump’s worldview leads to the logical and consistent conclusion that Russia will seek to control countries within its sphere of influence.

    Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine represented an attempt to impose its will on a militarily weaker country that it considered to be in its rightful domain of control.

    The EU alternative

    Contrary to this view, the EU is founded on the premise that countries can work together for mutual gains through collaboration and consensus. This approach underpins the operation of what are called the Bretton Woods Institutions created in the aftermath of World War II.

    This worldview expects collaboration rather than conflict. Mutually beneficial and cooperative solutions are found through dialogue and negotiation.

    According to this perspective, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is about a conflict between the values of a liberal democracy and those of an oppressive authoritarian regime.

    Zelensky has himself consistently framed the conflict as being about a clash of values: freedom and democracy versus authoritarianism and control.

    A mix of both?

    Since Trump’s second inauguration, European leaders have presented a united front, motivated by facing a world where US military backing cannot be guaranteed.

    However, there is internal division within European countries. Recent years has seen a sharp rise in anti-EU sentiment within EU member states. The UK’s exit from the EU is an example of this phenomenon.

    EU leaders previously followed a path of cooperation with Russia, with limited success. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, France and Germany helped mediate the Minsk Agreements. These agreements, signed in 2014 and 2015, were designed to prevent further incursions by Russian-backed groups into Ukrainian sovereign territory.

    This did not prevent Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

    In an emerging new world order, leadership might require going beyond the seeming contradiction of a focus on military strength or cooperation. Leaders may need to integrate both.

    Jessica Genauer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The EU will spend billions more on defence. It’s a powerful statement – but won’t do much for Ukraine – https://theconversation.com/the-eu-will-spend-billions-more-on-defence-its-a-powerful-statement-but-wont-do-much-for-ukraine-251710

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Don’t be that idiot’: surfing in a cyclone could cost you $16,000 or your life

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amy Peden, NHMRC Research Fellow, School of Population Health & co-founder UNSW Beach Safety Research Group, UNSW Sydney

    Social media is awash with images of surfers chasing waves as Cyclone Alfred whips up seas off Australia’s east coast.

    Queensland Premier David Crisafulli has branded beachgoers as “idiots”. On Friday morning, he said those going to the beach as the cyclone approaches put themselves and emergency services at risk, adding:

    I plead to the people who might think that now is a great time to go out on the surf – it’s not. It’s not just for you I’m concerned, but for the innocent person who has to go in after you.

    Sightseers have been caught in storm surges, and rescuers have been forced into the surf to help others. Up and down the coast, beaches are closed.

    In Queensland, surfers have been warned they may face fines up to $16,000 for reckless behaviour.

    Despite all this, surfers and others continue to enter the water. It’s important to ask why – and what will it take to get them to stop?

    Only a surfer knows the feeling

    I research injury prevention with a focus on drowning and safety in the water. As cofounder of the UNSW Beach Safety Research Group, I have also led research into surfing.

    Surfers frequently chase waves in big surf. Research by my colleagues and I shows under normal conditions, surfers have a lower risk of dying during this activity than people taking part in other water-related activities such as swimming, wading, snorkelling and scuba diving.

    Although drowning is the leading cause of death while surfing, other severe injuries are relatively rare.

    Of course, injuries can occur. These include cervical spine fractures and other spinal cord injuries, head injuries and lacerations. These can be due to collision with a surfboard, a fin, or the ocean floor.

    Yet most surfers usually manage to avoid serious injury. Throw some mega waves into the mix, however, and things can turn deadly, fast.

    Research shows the risk of injury is almost 2.5 times higher when surfing in waves that were over head height or bigger, relative to other waves.

    Despite this, the lure of experiencing record-breaking waves can be hard to ignore.

    Research shows surfers are motivated by what’s known as “sensation seeking”. In other words, they are more likely to seek out intense experiences than those who participate in other, less extreme sports.

    The desire to “master nature” – or go into battle with a big wave and come out on top – has been documented in analyses of surfing motivation.

    For big wave surfers, the reward – and the risk – can can be even greater. The physical and mental preparation needed to take on such extremes are immense. Tragically, deaths do occur even when attempts are made to improve safety.

    This desire to take risks in the water contributes to the over-representation of males in drowning statistics.

    Such risk-taking behaviour often plays out on social media in aquatic locations and during extreme weather events.

    Other hazards, above and below the surface

    Beyond the waves, other hazards can cause increased risk of ill health and injury in stormy seas. Debris can increase the risk of blunt-force trauma, while fecal and other bacteria in stormwater can cause illness.

    Sea foam should not be considered harmless either, having been implicated in rescues and tragic cases of drowning in the past.

    In the long term, coastal erosion due to storm surges and powerful surf can create permanent changes, impacting infrastructure and changing the location and strength of rip currents – the number-one coastal drowning hazard.



    Read more:
    Can you spot a rip current? Test your knowledge with our interactive quiz

    Don’t be that idiot

    Having a cyclone this far south is a rare event, so it’s only natural for people to want to take a look. But sometimes there’s no safe viewing distance, and the safest place to be is at home.

    Unsafe behaviours in and around the surf are rife on social media. Mainstream media outlets often model unsafe behaviours too, with reporters delivering their “piece to camera” about the importance of staying away from the beach while themselves standing on the shore.

    Conditions are unpredictable. These include powerful waves and storm surges that can knock you off your feet and sweep you out to sea.

    Remember, emergency services are stretched right now. If you get into trouble in the surf, there may be no one to rescue you. Or untrained bystanders may come to your aid and get into trouble themselves.

    With numerous flood warnings in place and roads closed, as well as the risks present on the coast, it’s best to stay away from beaches, rock platforms and coastal areas for now. Hit the waves again when conditions have calmed down.



    Read more:
    Just 15 centimetres of water can float a car – but we are failing to educate drivers about the dangers of floodwaters

    Amy Peden receives funding from the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Surf Life Saving Australia and the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service. She maintains an honorary (unpaid) affiliation with Royal Life Saving Society – Australia.

    – ref. ‘Don’t be that idiot’: surfing in a cyclone could cost you $16,000 or your life – https://theconversation.com/dont-be-that-idiot-surfing-in-a-cyclone-could-cost-you-16-000-or-your-life-251706

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How cyclones rip apart houses – and how to boost the chance your home stays standing

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Henderson, Chief Engineer, Cyclone Testing Station, James Cook University

    People in southeast Queensland and northern NSW have spent days racing to prepare their homes ahead of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, now expected to make landfall over several hours on Saturday.

    It’s not possible to completely cyclone-proof a house. But there’s a lot you can do – in the short and long term – to boost the resilience of your home and reduce damage caused by future cyclones.

    How winds affects pressure on and in the house

    Strong winds generate pressure pushing and pulling on the outside and inside of a house.

    When wind gusts hit a building, the wind is pushing on what we call the windward wall and going up and over the roof, creating a suction effect. The wind is trying very hard to peel the roof off your house, and in a cyclone is hammering the building for many hours.

    How external winds exert pressure on a house.
    © The State of Queensland (Queensland Reconstruction Authority) 2019, CC BY

    If a windward window or door blows in or gets broken by debris, wind instantaneously enters the space. This almost doubles the load that the roof now has to resist.

    In southeast Queensland and northern NSW, housing is not typically designed to resist that extra upward load on the roof if a door or window blows in.

    Cyclone resilience is about maintaining the function of a building during severe weather, so even if there is some damage, it still can be used after the storm has passed. So it’s vital the roof stays on.

    In practice, that means thinking about what’s known as the “tie down chain” – how all pieces of the house are held together to carry the wind loads from the roof to the ground.

    A weak link in this tie down chain can lead to winds lifting entire roofs from homes. All the connections involved in keeping a roof on the house are exceptionally important.

    Weather resistance in building codes is generally designed for rain that falls straight down and flows off the roof.

    But in a cyclone, rain can come horizontally. It can get pushed under the the roof, into gutters and under sliding doors. And it’s not just a little bit – buckets and buckets of water can inundate a house.

    Wind pressure can also mean water is blown into the house through gaps you may not even know existed. Wind-driven rain ingress can happen at wind speeds that don’t cause structural damage.

    It comes in under doors and through windows, including holes in window sills. It can lead to buildings being unusable and a large number of insurance claims.

    Dispelling major myths

    You might have seen people taping a big “X” on their windows and glass doors. Unfortunately, this doesn’t really do much to improve window strength.

    Some people put the tape on and then, during the cyclone, sit there watching their glass flex, falsely believing tape magically makes the window stronger. This is incredibly dangerous. If that glass shatters, the bystander would be hit by shards of glass travelling at high speed.

    It is much better to tape a garbage bag or a sheet of plastic along the bottom of the window sill and tape it up about 300mm each side. It can then catch the water that seeps in the window and allows it to flow back out when the wind pressure drops.

    Sometimes people open a window to reduce pressure inside the house that happens if a door or window breaks. It’s true this might reduce some pressure, but it depends which side of the house is currently being hit by wind. And given wind direction can change during a cyclone, emergency services recommend it’s better just to stay sheltered in the smallest room; they don’t want you standing in front of a window during a cyclone.

    Close all internal doors so if any windows do blow in, the high pressure is restricted to just that room (not spread throughout the house).

    Designing beyond the bare minimum

    Building codes require buildings to build to a “wind classification” according to the “wind zone” of that area.

    Buildings are often built only to the minimum standard of the Building Code. However, if we want a house to function after an extreme tropical cyclone, we should consider building beyond the minimum standard using resilience features that will keep your roof on in a cyclone and minimise the entry of rainwater.

    Cyclone resilience also includes incorporating resilient building materials in your home – such as linoleum or vinyl floors instead of carpet, and ceilings from fibre-cement sheeting instead of plasterboard.

    Resilient building options you could consider.
    © The State of Queensland (Queensland Reconstruction Authority), CC BY

    Eternal vigilance

    It’s also important all elements holding your house together are well maintained through the life of the building.

    That means ensuring regular inspections by a trained professional to identify any potential weaknesses such as rot, rust or UV damage.

    These inspections are not something you and a mate can do yourselves. It requires a building professionals to get into the roof and look for weak spots.

    Think beyond your house. What about the carport? A pergola? That shed or patio you added? Are the solar panels installed correctly with the right fixings and brackets to resist the wind forces?

    If all these things are not fixed down and maintained well, strong winds can pick them up and throw them at your house or your neighbours.

    Just as you get your car serviced, you should get your house checked every five to seven years. Our homes have many important parts and a failure in one can lead to disastrous and expensive problems.

    David Henderson serves on committees for Standards Australia. He is a member of Engineers Australia and has done consulting work with the Resilient Building Council.

    Geoffrey Boughton serves on committees for Standards Australia. He is a member of Engineers Australia and has done consulting work with the Resilient Building Council.

    – ref. How cyclones rip apart houses – and how to boost the chance your home stays standing – https://theconversation.com/how-cyclones-rip-apart-houses-and-how-to-boost-the-chance-your-home-stays-standing-251709

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –