Category: France

  • MIL-OSI Security: Defense News: Exercise Cutlass Express 2025 Concludes in Tanzania

    Source: United States Navy

    During the exercise, which took place from Feb. 10-21, over 1000 participants from 20 partner nations supported Exercise Cutlass Express 2025 as part of a global network of partners to enhance cooperation and expertise in maritime security operations in the Western Indian Ocean.

    In Tanzania, 2 national maritime operation centers (MOCs) participated in the exercise to collaborate on real-time scenarios linked to the visit, board, search and seizure (VBSS) training hosted in Tanga, Tanzania. Exercise Cutlass Express 2025 also contained linkages with the U.S. Army Southern European Task Force, Africa-led exercise Justified Accord 2025, also taking place in Tanzania, to improve coordination between land- and sea-based operations.

    “We value the TPDF’s role as a regional leader in deploying peacekeeping forces, countering violent extremist organizations, and promoting maritime security,” said Andrew Lentz Chargé d’Affaires ad interim of the U.S. Embassy in Tanzania. “Through exercises like Cutlass Express, we are building the readiness of our militaries and deepening the bilateral and multilateral relationships required to confront today’s most complex security challenges.”

    Cutlass Express focuses on enabling East African partners to expand their capacity and capability to support maritime security operations and combat threats such as piracy, trafficking and illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing. The coordination of 10 national MOCs across 8 partner nations sought to improve regional coordination, with this year being the first to feature a U.S. P-8A Poseidon aircraft to establish communication links during a Cutlass Express. VBSS training in both Tanzania and Mauritius, as well as a week-long rule of law course hosted in Seychelles, allowed partners to share and refine their tactics for interdiction operations while ensuring a legal finish to hold malign actors accountable for illicit at-sea activity.

    “Ensuring the free flow of commerce within the region, especially over critical sea lines of communication and the vast expanse of this maritime environment, is vital to the economic stability and security of the region,” said Rear Adm. David E. Ludwa, reserve director of logistics, ordnance and engineering for Navy Reserve U.S. 6th Fleet. “We must work together, deepen our partnerships, and continue to improve the quality of exercises like Cutlass Express to enhance our ability to communicate and synchronize maritime operations to collectively counter the manifold threats we face.”

    Participants in this year’s iteration of Cutlass Express spanned 5 continents and included Australia, Belgium, Comoros, Djibouti, France, Georgia, India, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Senegal, Seychelles, Somalia, Tanzania, Tunisia, and the United Kingdom.

    Cutlass Express is one of three regional maritime exercises led by U.S. 6th Fleet as part of a comprehensive strategy to provide collaborative opportunities to African forces and international partners to address maritime security concerns.

    Commander, U.S. 6th Fleet, headquartered in Naples, Italy, conducts the full spectrum of joint and naval operations, often in concert with allied and interagency partners to advance U.S. national interests, security and stability in Europe and Africa.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine war three years on: the bloodiest battles may be still to come

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alexander Titov, Lecturer in Modern European History, Queen’s University Belfast

    Just ahead of the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the conflict has taken a dramatic and unexpected turn. The US is abruptly disengaging from its support of Ukraine, having previously promised that they would stand with Kyiv for “as long as it takes”.

    Europe is in panic mode, while Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is having public spats with the freshly installed US president, Donald Trump.

    At this stage, it seems that Vladimir Putin is firmly on top. But Trump is not the main cause of the current crisis, he merely reflects a more serious problem for Ukraine.

    When war broke out in the early hours of February 24 2022, the world was shocked, but not entirely surprised. Warnings of Russia’s attack on Ukraine had the advantage of preparing a united western front against Russia.

    Western resolve strengthened as expectations of a quick Moscow victory faded and Ukraine’s self-confidence grew. This mood was reflected in Josep Borrell’s statement the EU’s high representative for foreign affairs on April 9 that Russia must be defeated on the battlefield.

    Two weeks earlier, US president Joe Biden declared that Putin “cannot stay in power”. In September 2022, when the Ukrainian army recaptured a large part of the territory occupied by Russia in the Kharkiv region, Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, told the EU parliament that “Russia’s industry is in tatters,” and that Moscow was using dishwashing machine chips for its missiles.

    In an atmosphere of euphoria on October 4, Zelensky issued an official ban on negotiations with Putin. There would be only one outcome to this war: Putin’s defeat.

    Indeed, Putin’s original plan had failed. Russia was retreating in Kharkiv and abandoning its strategic foothold on the right bank of the Dnieper in Kherson. On September 21 Putin had to declare a partial mobilisation, the first since the second world war, because Russia’s professional army was running out of men.

    Fortunes of war

    How things have changed: as the war approaches its three-year mark the west’s triumphalist mood is now a distant memory. Mark Rutte, secretary general of Nato, warned on January 13 that “what Russia now produces in three months, that’s what the whole of NATO from Los Angeles to Ankara produces in a year”. It’s a far cry from von der Leyen’s “Russian economy in tatters” jubilation of 2022.

    In its dying days, the Biden administration rushed more weapons to Ukraine and imposed ever harsher sanctions on Moscow. This could not hide the fact that the US could not continue to fund Ukraine as it had for the first three years. Any US president would now struggle to get another Ukraine funding bill through Congress.

    And Donald Trump is not just any US president. In his first month he has changed his country’s Ukraine policy in a characteristically dramatic and abrupt way.

    But the underlying problem was always there: what to do with this war that Ukraine is not going to win and in which Russia is slowly getting the upper hand. It’s been clear since the failure of Ukraine’s much touted counteroffensive in summer 2023 that Ukraine can’t win militarily. So continuing to supply Ukraine at current levels can only prolong the fight, not change the course of the war.

    From Trump’s perspective, this is a Biden war that has already been lost. And politically, it’s much easier for Trump to seek peace than his European counterparts because he campaigned on an anti-war message, repeatedly blaming Biden for the war and saying it would never have happened if he were president. Trump wants to find a quick fix and move on. If it fails, he can wash his hands of it and let the Europeans deal with it.

    Europe clearly doesn’t know what to do now: it can’t accept defeat, but neither can it pretend that Ukraine can win the war without US support. It is a sign of their desperation that in “emergency meetings” called by the French president, Emmanuel Macron, they spend so much time discussing hypothetical and, frankly, highly unlikely scenarios for sending European troops into Ukraine.

    After talks with the US in Saudi Arabia, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov made clear the Russian position: “The troops of Nato countries [in Ukraine] under a foreign flag – an EU flag or any national flag … is unacceptable.” And the Europeans are simply not in a position to impose conditions on the Kremlin.

    The best that the EU can do on the third anniversary of the invasion is to unveil yet another sanctions package: number 16. But now that the US has changed its mind about its war aims, there’s no hiding the fact that Europe’s war strategy is in tatters.

    The end point

    Russia is under no pressure to rush into a deal it doesn’t like. Moscow’s terms are known: formal recognition that the four regions it annexed in September 2022 plus Crimea are now part of Russia, and withdrawal of the remaining Ukrainian troops from those regions. Kyiv must pledge permanent neutrality, limits on its armed forces. It must recognise and establish Russian language rights in Ukraine and ban far-right parties.

    But these terms are completely unacceptable to Kyiv. And while there’s no good way out for Ukraine, it’s not yet in a desperate enough position to accept such a deal.

    The only way to force it on Kyiv is either a complete military collapse by Ukraine’s forces, which is not looking likely at the moment, or concerted pressure from a united west to accept Russia’s unpalatable terms. But the west is divided on this issue, with the Europeans insisting that Ukraine should keep fighting until it can negotiate “from a position of strength”.

    It’s a heroic assumption that Ukraine will be in a stronger position by this time next year. After the peak of confidence in early 2023, when Zelensky declared that “2023 will be the year of our victory!” each subsequent anniversary of the invasion saw Kyiv’s position weaker. But still, on current trends, it would take Russia until the end of the year to capture the rest of the eastern province of Donbas, without which an end to the war is unlikely anyway.

    For these reasons, there is no guarantee that the US-Russian talks will lead to a resolution of the conflict. Unfortunately, this means that the bloodiest battles of the war are yet to come, as the Russian military pushes to maximise its military advantage.

    In keeping with the wishes of Josep Borrell, the outcome of this war is still likely to be decided on the battlefield.

    Alexander Titov does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Ukraine war three years on: the bloodiest battles may be still to come – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-three-years-on-the-bloodiest-battles-may-be-still-to-come-250422

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI NGOs: Amnesty International responds to B.C. court ruling in Indigenous land defenders’ trial

    Source: Amnesty International –

    Amnesty International will consider prisoner-of-conscience designations in the cases of three Indigenous land defenders in Canada whose convictions were upheld by a British Columbia court.

    Sleydo’ (Molly Wickham), a Wing Chief (Cas Yikh house) of the Gidimt’en Clan of the Wet’suwet’en Nation, Shaylynn Sampson, a Gitxsan woman with Wet’suwet’en family connections, and Corey “Jayohcee” Jocko, a Kanien’kehá:ka (Mohawk), had asked the court to void their convictions on constitutional grounds. They argued that their arrests during – and detention after – a highly militarized November 2021 police raid on unceded Wet’suwet’en territory violated their rights under the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms.

    On Tuesday, a British Columbia judge ruled that the conduct, including anti-Indigenous racist statements, of some Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP)/Community Industry Response Group (C-IRG) members during the raid did indeed violate the defenders’ Charter rights. The ruling validates both the experiences of these land defenders and the broader experience of colonial violence that Indigenous Peoples have faced for more than 100 years from the RCMP. However, the judge refused to stay all charges against the defenders and said he would instead consider reduced sentences.

    Amnesty International is reviewing the implications of Tuesday’s decision. Should they receive a sentence that arbitrarily deprives them of their liberty, Amnesty will designate the affected land defenders as prisoners of conscience.

    “We are heartened by Justice Tammen’s stern condemnation of the racist and violent treatment Sleydo’, Shaylynn Sampson and Corey ‘Jayohcee’ Jocko endured during their arrests. Unfortunately, the systematic racism that led to their arrests remains unaddressed”

    -Ketty Nivyabandi, Secretary General of Amnesty International Canada’s English-speaking section

    “We are heartened by Justice Tammen’s stern condemnation of the racist and violent treatment Sleydo’, Shaylynn Sampson and Corey ‘Jayohcee’ Jocko endured during their arrests,” said Ketty Nivyabandi, Secretary General of Amnesty International Canada’s English-speaking section. “Unfortunately, the systematic racism that led to their arrests remains unaddressed. B.C. and Canada must take immediate steps to stop the criminalization of Indigenous land defenders in the first place. No one should be intimidated, harassed, or arrested, let alone convicted in a criminal court case, for exercising their constitutionally protected rights and protecting the natural environment we all share.

    France-Isabelle Langlois, general director of Amnistie internationale Canada francophone, declared: “Peaceful actions were taken by the Indigenous land defenders with the aim of protecting natural ecosystems that lessen the impacts of climate change. In this global context of the climate crisis, to punish them is preposterous, to say the least, no matter how small the sentence. These actions need to be widely applauded rather than scrutinized by the Court.

    “The Court’s decision to uphold the convictions of the three land defenders is part of a broader context of shrinking civic space in Canada, where Indigenous land defenders, environmentalists, and human right defenders are frequently the victims of political or police repression,” she added. “It is disappointing that we must remind the country and its institutions of their obligations under international law since Canada prides itself on being a leader in human rights.”

    “Peaceful actions were taken by the Indigenous land defenders with the aim of protecting natural ecosystems that lessen the impacts of climate change. In this global context of the climate crisis, to punish them is preposterous, to say the least, no matter how small the sentence. These actions need to be widely applauded rather than scrutinized by the Court”

    -France-Isabelle Langlois, general director of Amnistie internationale Canada francophone

    Amnesty International has vehemently condemned the criminalization of Wet’suwet’en and other land defenders opposed to the construction of Coastal GasLink (CGL) liquefied natural gas pipeline through the Nation’s unceded, ancestral territory. Construction on the 670-kilometre pipeline began without the free, prior and informed consent of the Wet’suwet’en Hereditary Chiefs, on behalf of their clans. This violates Canadian and international human rights law and standards, including the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, which was legislated into Canadian law on June 21, 2021.

    Based in part on witness testimony of four large-scale RCMP raids on Wet’suwet’en territory, Amnesty’s 2023 report ‘Removed from our land for defending it’: Criminalization, Intimidation and Harassment of Wet’suwet’en Land Defenders found that Wet’suwet’en land defenders and their supporters were arbitrarily detained for peacefully defending their land against the construction of the CGL pipeline and exercising their Indigenous rights and their right to peaceful assembly.

    In June and July 2022, the B.C. Prosecution Service (BCPS) charged 20 land defenders, including Sleydo’, Sampson and Jocko, with criminal contempt for disobeying an injunction order to stay away from pipeline construction sites, an order that unduly restricted the human rights of the land defenders and the Indigenous rights of the Wet’suwet’en Nation. Seven of the 20 land defenders pleaded guilty because of restrictive bail conditions, as well as the familial, psychological and financial impacts that the criminal proceedings imposed on them. Five other defenders had their charges dropped, and five more are awaiting trial.

    “This whole process has been a violation of my rights and responsibilities as an Indigenous person and my responsibility to the health and wellness of future generations and the Yintah,” Sleydo’ said during a news conference after the decision was handed down on Tuesday afternoon. “The colonial courts are not where our ability to live out our laws and ways of life should be determined. And yet here we are, over three years later, in a showdown between Wet’suwet’en law and colonial law after years of police violence and repression by the C-IRG, with no accountability. I refuse to allow the colonial courts to dehumanize and criminalize me. I belong to my land, my ancestors, and my people.

    “I am a mother, a daughter, a sister, an auntie, a good friend, and a leader. I am a singer, a hunter, a teacher, and a revolutionary. I am following the footsteps of my ancestors, and I carry their teachings with me in everything that I do.”

    “This whole process has been a violation of my rights and responsibilities as an Indigenous person and my responsibility to the health and wellness of future generations and the Yintah. (…) I refuse to allow the colonial courts to dehumanize and criminalize me. I belong to my land, my ancestors, and my people”

    -Sleydo’

    If Amnesty International names Sleydo’, Sampson and Jocko prisoners of conscience, it will be the second time the organization has applied that designation to a person held by Canada. In July 2024, Amnesty declared another Wet’suwet’en land defender – Likhts’amisyu Clan Wing Chief Dsta’hyl – a prisoner of conscience after the British Columbia court sentenced him to 60 days of house arrest. Like Sleydo’, Sampson and Jocko, Chief Dsta’hyl was charged and later convicted for allegedly violating the terms of the B.C. court injunction banning land-defence actions near the CGL pipeline, including in areas of the Wet’suwet’en Nation’s territory.

    “If the Canadian state decides to unjustly criminalize and confine Sleydo’, Shaylynn, and Corey, Amnesty International will not hesitate to designate them as prisoners of conscience,” said Ana Piquer, Americas director at Amnesty International. “Canada is on the sadly long list of countries in the Americas where land defenders remain at risk for their essential work.”

    “If the Canadian state decides to unjustly criminalize and confine Sleydo’, Shaylynn, and Corey, Amnesty International will not hesitate to designate them as prisoners of conscience. Canada is on the sadly long list of countries in the Americas where land defenders remain at risk for their essential work”

    -Ana Piquer, Americas director at Amnesty International

    The criminalization of Wet’suwet’en land defenders has sparked an international outcry and calls for Canada to respect Indigenous rights. Last year, Sleydo’, Sampson and Jocko were a featured case in Write for Rights, Amnesty International’s annual global letter-writing campaign. Since the fall, thousands of people around the world have sent letters and signed petitions calling on Canada to drop the charges against the three defenders.

    MIL OSI NGO

  • MIL-OSI USA: Governor Newsom announces appointments 2.20.25

    Source: US State of California 2

    Feb 20, 2025

    Sacramento, California –Governor Gavin Newsom today announced the following appointments:

    Mayumi Kimura, of Temecula, has been appointed Deputy Secretary of Woman Veterans at the California Department of Veterans Affairs. Kimura has been the Founder and Director of Warriors Insight Therapy since 2022. She was a Readjustment Counselor at Lowell Vet Center from 2019 to 2022. Kimura was a Program Director at Middlesex Sheriff’s Office, Housing Unit for Military Veterans from 2018 to 2019.  She was an Emergency Services Clinician at Riverside Community Care from 2017 to 2018. Kimura was a Social Services Clinician at Butler Psychiatric Hospital from 2016 to 2017. She was a Psychosocial Manager/Hospice Social Worker at Bayada Hospice from 2013 to 2017. Kimura served in multiple roles for the United States Navy from 2001 to 2010, including Active-Duty Operations Specialist, Petty Officer First Class, and Active Reserves. This position does not require Senate confirmation, and the compensation is $154,860. Kimura is a Democrat.

    Justin Turner, of Sacramento, has been appointed Chief Counsel at the California Department of Conservation. He has been Assistant Chief Counsel at the Department of Conservation since 2015 and Attorney III from 2008 to 2015. Turner was a Contract Attorney at the California Department of Public Health from 2005 to 2008. He was a Contract Attorney at Update Legal in 2004. Turner earned his Juris Doctor degree from the University of California, College of the Law, San Francisco, and a Bachelor of the Arts degree in Spanish from the University of Oregon. This position does not require Senate confirmation and compensation is $208,440. Turner is a Democrat.

    Anthony “Tony” Marino, of Sacramento, has been appointed Deputy Director of Energy at the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety. Marino has been the Deputy Director of the Underground Infrastructure Directorate at the Office of Energy Infrastructure Safety since 2022. Marino was the Executive Officer of the Underground Safety Board at the Department of Foresty and Fire Protection from 2017 to 2021. He served as Consultant on the Subcommittee on Gas, Electric, and Transportation Safety in the Office of Senator Jerry Hill from 2012 to 2017. Marino held multiple positions in the Office of Assemblymember Jerry Hill from 2010 to 2012, including Legislative Aide and Science Fellow. He earned a Doctor of Philosophy degree in Chemistry from the University of Chicago and a Bachelor of the Arts degree in English and Chemistry from Davidson College. This position does not require Senate confirmation and compensation is $175,512. Marino is registered without party preference.  

    Travis Nichols, of Sacramento, has been appointed Cyber Incident Response Manager at the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services. Nichols has been an Operations Officer/Defensive Cyberspace Weapons Officer with the United States Marine Corps Reserve since 2010. He was a Consultant at Level9 Group in 2023. Nichols was a Cyber Security Operations Architect at Smith & Nephew from 2022 to 2023. He was an Information System Security Officer/Engineer at Defense Microelectronics Activity from 2021 to 2022. Nichols was a Systems Administrator – Server/Network Team Lead at Blackwatch International from 2019 to 2021. He was a Systems Administrator – Tier III – Team Lead at Cincinnati Bell Technical Solutions from 2018 to 2019. Nichols was a Service Support Engineer at Pathforward IT from 2016 to 2018. This position does not require Senate confirmation, and the compensation is $137,616. Nichols is a Democrat.

    Lynda Hopkins, of Sebastopol, has been appointed to the California Air Resources Board. Hopkins has been the Fifth District Supervisor on the Sonoma County Board of Supervisors since 2016. She was a Co-Owner at Foggy River Farm from 2008 to 2020. Hopkins was a Reporter at the Sonoma West Times & News from 2009 to 2013. She was the Executive Director at Sonoma County Farm Trails from 2008 to 2010. Hopkins was a Head Teaching Assistant at the Stanford University Earth Systems Program from 2005 to 2007. She is a member of the Bay Area Air Quality Management District. Hopkins earned a Master of Science degree in Earth Systems, a Bachelor of Science degree in Earth Systems, and a Bachelor of the Arts degree in Creative Writing and Poetry from Stanford University. This position requires Senate confirmation and there is no compensation. Hopkins is a Democrat.

    Dawn Ortiz-Legg, of San Luis Obispo, has been appointed to the California Air Resources Board. Ortiz-Legg has been the Third District Supervisor on the San Luis Obispo County Board of Supervisors since 2020. She was a Right of Way Agent at Pacific Gas and Electric Company from 2018 to 2020. Ortiz-Legg was a Project Manager & Public Affairs Liaison at First Solar from 2010 to 2018. She was North American Sales and Marketing Manager at PTEC Corporation from 1999 to 2010. Ortiz-Legg is a member of the San Luis Obispo County Air Pollution Control District. She earned her Master of Public Policy degree in Climate Change and Technology Policy from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, and a Bachelor of the Arts degree in Organizational Communication from Pepperdine University. This position requires Senate confirmation and there is no compensation. Ortiz-Legg is a Democrat.

    Tina Thomas, of Sacramento, has been appointed to the Wildlife Conservation Board. Thomas has been Of Counsel at Downey Brand LLP since 2023. She was Founding Partner at Thomas Law Group Sacramento from 2012 to 2023. Thomas has held multiple positions at Remy, Thomas, Moose, and Manley, LLP from 1982 to 2011, including Counsel and Managing Partner. She was an Associate Attorney at Remy and Associates from 1979 to 1982. Thomas is a Board Member at the Steinberg Institute, Sacramento Federal Judiciary Library, and Meristem, and Member Emeritus at the Sacramento Food Bank. She earned a Juris Doctor degree from the University of San Diego, and a Bachelor of the Arts degree in Sociology and Political Science from Stephens College. This position does not require Senate Confirmation, and there is no compensation. Thomas is a Democrat.

    Frances “Fran” Pavley, of Agoura Hills, has been reappointed to the Wildlife Conservation Board, where she has served since 2018. Pavley has been the Environmental Policy Director at the University of Southern California Schwarzenegger Institute since 2018. She served as a Senator in the California State Senate from 2008 to 2016. Pavley served as an Assemblymember in the California State Assembly from 2000 to 2006. She served as Mayor/City Councilmember for the City of Agoura Hills from 1982 to 1998. Pavley earned her Master of the Arts degree in Environmental Planning from California State University, Northridge, and her Bachelor of the Arts degree in Social Science from California State University, Fresno. This position does not require Senate Confirmation, and there is no compensation.  Pavley is a Democrat.

    Travis Clausen, of Garden Grove, has been appointed to the Underground Safe Excavation Board. Clausen has been Regional Construction Manager – Aviation and Defense at Sully-Miller Contracting Company since 2025, where he was Senior Operations Manager from 2015 to 2025. Clausen was a Project Manager at OHL USA from 2014 to 2015 and at Sully Miller Contracting Company from 2006 to 2014. Clausen served in the United States Army from 1995 to 1998. He earned a Bachelor of the Arts degree in Business Administration – Finance from California State University, Fullerton. This position does not require Senate Confirmation and there is no compensation. Clausen is a Republican.

    Press Releases, Recent News

    Recent news

    News SACRAMENTO – Governor Gavin Newsom today announced the following appointments:Andrew “Andy” Nakahata, of San Francisco, has been appointed Chief Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer at the California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank….

    News What you need to know: A court has denied the city of Norwalk’s request to dismiss the state’s lawsuit against the city for its unlawful ban on homeless shelters.  NORWALK — Governor Gavin Newsom issued the following statement in response to a court decision…

    News What you need to know: Steve Jobs, a visionary of global scale, has been nominated to represent California on the American Innovation Coin. The coin, which will be minted by the U.S. Mint, highlights U.S. innovations and innovators, including California’s legacy…

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Russia: “Our Hearts Are With Them”: HSE Hosts Festival in Honor of Defenders of the Fatherland

    Translartion. Region: Russians Fedetion –

    Source: State University Higher School of Economics – State University Higher School of Economics –

    © Higher School of Economics

    February 19th HSE Center of CulturesThe HSE hosted a student festival dedicated to the Year of the Defender of the Fatherland and the 80th anniversary of the Victory. During the day, films from the III International Traveling Festival “Cinema in the Service of the Fatherland” were shown, the halls hosted thematic exhibitions dedicated to the Great Patriotic War and the heroes of the SVO, as well as platforms of patriotic student organizations. In the evening, a concert by the Academic Song and Dance Ensemble of the Russian Army named after A.V. Alexandrov was held.

    “War has become sacred”

    The festival was opened by representatives Military training centerNational Research University Higher School of Economics.

    The head of the Military Training Center, Hero of Russia Colonel Vladimir Korgutov congratulated students, lyceum students, and university staff on the upcoming Defender of the Fatherland Day and invited them to the festive events that will take place in the Military Training Center in the coming days.

    Ordinary Professor, Major General Adam Nizhalovsky spoke with festival participants about the victory in the Great Patriotic War. “This war became sacred because the enemy wanted not only to occupy our territory and use its resources. The efforts of the aggressor were aimed at the destruction of our people, their spiritual and moral values,” he emphasized.

    “It was an interesting conversation, and we learned a lot of new things,” the student shared his impressions. Lyceum of the National Research University Higher School of EconomicsFedor Koshlyak. – For example, that Hitler, having captured Paris, was unable to climb the Eiffel Tower because the French broke the elevator, and the Germans were unable to fix it. It is clear that the general is well informed, that he evaluates the events of those years impartially.”

    Among the participants in the conversation were those who demonstrated remarkable knowledge. When asked about the origin of the name of Hitler’s plan to attack the USSR, lyceum student Savely Zayev answered that the nickname Barbarossa was borne by the Emperor of the Holy Roman Empire, who died while crossing a river. “He was in heavy armor, fell from his horse and drowned. I don’t think that Hitler, when he approved his plan, knew the fate of this statesman to the end,” Adam Nizhalovsky clarified.

    “A university that serves the Fatherland”

    The Small Hall of the Culture Center hosted pre-premiere screenings of films from the III International Traveling Festival “Cinema in the Service of the Fatherland.” Among them was the documentary “River of Heroes,” dedicated to the origins of Russian courage using examples from different eras. After the screening, director Konstantin Aleksandrov answered questions from the audience — he was not released for an hour.

    “I had an idea of the Higher School of Economics as a liberal university, but after I showed the film and received feedback, it changed to the opposite,” Konstantin said in an interview with Vyshka.Glavnoe. “This is a university that serves the Fatherland. Both students and lyceum students watched the film consciously, thoughtfully analyzed it, asked tricky questions, and these were exactly the questions I needed!”

    One of the questions, dedicated to the parallels drawn in the film between the Patriotic War of 1812 and the Great Patriotic War, was asked by lyceum student Sergei Fedorkin. He studies in the Natural Sciences direction and is interested in history, especially the era of the Napoleonic wars. “A great film, it conveys feelings and emotions very well. The director managed to achieve all the goals he set for himself,” Sergei commented.

    “Beautiful, powerful works”

    An exhibition of portraits of the heroes of the SVO was organized in the hall of the second floor as part of the project “Coal of the Russian Land” – an addition to the festival “Cinema in the Service of the Fatherland”. Russian frontline artists presented their works painted in coal.

    And in the hall of the third floor there was an exhibition of photographs dedicated to the Great Patriotic War. It was held by the Creative Union of Artists of Russia as part of the All-Russian exhibition project “MEMORY”. After the festival, the exhibition will move to the atrium and will be regularly updated.

    3rd year studentJoint Bachelor’s degree program of the National Research University Higher School of Economics and the Center for Pedagogical Excellence Sidharth Mehta, who visited both exhibitions, noted their inseparable connection in an interview with Vyshka.Glavnoe. “The faces of people depicted in the paintings and captured in the photographs carry similar emotions – those that were experienced then, on the fronts of the Great Patriotic War, and now – in the SVO zone. They are connected by a common cause that they are carrying out, fighting the fascist threat,” the student believes.

    “The Higher School of Economics is one of the best universities in the country, and we were warmly welcomed here, we managed to gather a full hall. Young people are our main audience, and among our viewers there were also teachers, officers, including a Hero of Russia. There are plans for further cooperation with the university – we have many interesting things ahead of us,” said Virineya Shigina, head of the Coal of the Russian Land project.

    “Many portraits were painted based on photographs and stories from fellow soldiers – the guys were no longer alive, and we wanted to convey everything they experienced for us, for our future,” added her colleague Evgenia Laskina.

    “Thank you very much for this amazing exhibition. You have very beautiful, powerful works that leave a mark on the soul. The paintings depict heroes, servicemen, and you managed to convey their best human, officer qualities, to capture the foundation on which our state stands. This is invaluable support, your contribution to the victory,” said Vice-Rector Sergei Rozhkov, communicating with the artists.

    He also thanked the organizers of the photo exhibition, emphasizing that each work simultaneously conveys grief for those killed during the Great Patriotic War and the joy of Victory.

    Letter to the hero

    The halls of the Cultural Center housed stands of the Military Training Center, Department of Physical Educationand student organizations with a patriotic focus. Among them is the All-Russian student patriotic movement “White Raven”, created at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Its stand featured weapons – both modern and from the Great Patriotic War. Anyone could take part in weaving a camouflage net that would save the lives of our soldiers in the SVO zone.

    As the leader of the movement, a 5th-year student of the educational program “Story” and a graduate of the Military Training Center Anton Yukhnevsky, its participants themselves deliver humanitarian aid to the SVO zone, and in the building on Staraya Basmannaya, anyone can take part in weaving camouflage nets on certain days, including those not from the Higher School of Economics.

    At the stand of the women’s student club “Big Dipper” (it unites girls who see their mission in supporting the morale of servicemen and students of military universities), participants and guests of the festival could write letters to the SVO fighters. Among those who took advantage of this opportunity was a third-year student MIEFEgor Stryukov.

    “I come from the city of Kurchatov in the Kursk region – my grandparents are still there, and of course I worry about them. In the letter, I tried to express gratitude to our soldiers who are taking back Russian land from the enemy. Let them know that the people are with them, that they are supported,” Yegor said.

    A letter to the fighters was also written by Nina Kulieva, a Muscovite who attended the student festival at the HSE as part of the Moscow Longevity program.

    “I am a child of war – I was born in 1944. I wrote a letter to our soldiers, congratulated them on Defender of the Fatherland Day. I pray for them every day, so that they return home safe and sound. And so that they win. Victory will always be ours,” said Nina Danilovna.

    “Very important words”

    The culmination of the festival was a concert by the Academic Song and Dance Ensemble of the Russian Army named after A.V. Alexandrov in the Great Hall of the Center of Cultures. Before its beginning, the rector of the National Research University Higher School of Economics Nikita Anisimov delivered welcoming remarks.

    He congratulated all those present on the upcoming holiday, thanked the festival organizers, drawing attention to the special role of the Military Training Center in its implementation, and emphasized that it is being held in the Year of the Defender of the Fatherland. “These days, we honor the memory of those who defended our Motherland. Our hearts are with them. Communicating with each other, we say very important words about our country, about its future, about the most important thing in our lives,” the rector noted.

    He also recalled that on February 14 we celebrated another anniversary of the liberation of Lugansk from the Nazi invaders and that this year we will celebrate the anniversary of Mikhail Matusovsky, a native of this city, the author of many famous songs. “By studying history, we shape the future,” concluded Nikita Anisimov.

    In turn, Hero of Russia Vladimir Korgutov wished “everyone a peaceful sky above their heads, and our troops victory.”

    The A.V. Alexandrov ensemble performed the songs “Where does the Motherland begin”, “The Holy War”, “Nightingales”, “Cranes”, “Infantry is infantry”, “Victory Day” and others. The hall was attended by guests of the university, students and employees, including vice-rectors Sergey Rozhkov, Dmitry Zemtsov, Vyacheslav Bashev, Irina Martusevich, Elena Odoevskaya and other leaders.

    “It was amazing! It is difficult to convey the full range of positive emotions from such a concert. I am very glad that I was able to listen to my favorite songs within the walls of the HSE on the eve of an important day. A very correct event. A big human thank you to those who organized it,” shared his impressions Deputy Vice-Rector, Director for Strategic Work with Applicants Alexander Chepovsky.

    “We were treated to real masters. Firstly, a very rich musical palette. Secondly, the impeccable teamwork of the musicians and soloists. Thirdly, as a result, a very powerful impact on the audience. To be honest, this is the first time I’ve heard the Alexandrov ensemble live and I’m very impressed,” said the dean. Faculty of HumanitiesFelix Azhimov.

    According to the senior lecturer Faculty of Creative IndustriesRimma Pogodina, in the songs that sounded from the stage – the strength, spirit, power of the Russian people who survived a terrible war. “The hall was attended by both young people and representatives of the middle and older generations, and the connection between generations is a valuable resource that helps unite a huge group of teachers and students,” Rimma Pogodina emphasized. “I would like to wish that such events become traditional at our beloved university.”

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI: ANNUAL RESULTS 2024: MOBILIZE FINANCIAL SERVICES CONTINUES TO GROW

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

       

    PRESS RELEASE

    21 February 2025
    ANNUAL RESULTS 2024:
    MOBILIZE FINANCIAL SERVICES CONTINUES TO GROW
    In 2024, Mobilize Financial Services reported an increase in sales1, with growth in the amount of financing of 2.4%. Mobilize Financial Services also reported a rise in pre-tax income to 1,194 million euros, thanks to strong growth in net banking income. This solid annual performance reflects the effective operational management of Mobilize Financial Services and the commercial dynamism of Renault Group brands.

    KEY FIGURES

    Sales performance

    • The number of financing contracts is stable (+0.6%) compared with 2023.
    • The amount of new financings is up 2.4% compared with 2023
    • The penetration rate for electric vehicles is 45% in 2024, i.e. 2.9 points higher than the penetration rate for other types of engines
    • The penetration rate, all engines combined, was 42.3%, down 1.1 point on 2023.
    • In a growing market, Mobilize Lease&Co’s portfolio of financing contracts is up 11% compared with 2023.
    • Mobilize Financial Services sold 3.7 million service and insurance contracts in 2024, down 4.4% on 2023.

    Financial performance

    • Net banking income (NBI) came to 2,180 million euros, up 11.2% on 2023.
    • Operating costs reached 1.30% of Average Performing Assets (APA)2, an improvement of 8 basis points compared with 2023.
    • The total cost of risk was 0.31% of APAs in 2024, compared with 0.30% in 2023.
    • At the end of the year, net assets at end3 amounted to 61 billion euros compared with 54.7 billion euros in 2023, an increase of 11.6%.
    • Net deposits collected increased by 2.3 billion euros to 30.5 billion euros.
    • Pre-tax income was 1,194 million euros, compared with 1,034 million euros at the end of December 2023.

    Gianluca De Ficchy, Chairman of the Board of Directors of RCI Banque SA: “In a rapidly changing automotive and banking environment, Mobilize Financial Services continues to demonstrate its strength by delivering an excellent commercial and financial performance and making a significant contribution to Renault Group’s results. In 2025, we will leverage synergies with the Group to accelerate the adoption of more sustainable mobility, while placing customer experience and satisfaction at the heart of our strategy. Together, we will continue to create value for all our stakeholders. “

    Martin Thomas, Chief Executive Officer of Mobilize Financial Services: “In 2024, Mobilize Financial Services delivered remarkable growth and proved its resilience, with a 2.4% increase in financing amounts and an 11.2% rise in net banking income. As we start 2025, we are determined to support our customers in adopting a more sustainable form of mobility by offering products and services tailored to new uses. We will also continue our efforts to achieve operational excellence, through exemplary management of our costs and risks “.

    SOLID SALES PERFORMANCE DRIVEN BY AN INCREASE IN NEW FINANCING

    Mobilize Financial Services will see the amount of new financings (excluding cards and personal loans) rise by 2.4% compared with 2023, to 21.5 billion euros, thanks to the growth in registrations by Renault Group, Nissan and Mitsubishi, the increase in average amounts financed and the acquisition of MeinAuto. Mobilize Financial Services financed 1,282,066 contracts in 2024, a stable volume compared with 2023 (+0.6%).

    In an automotive market that grew slightly by 2.3%, volumes for Renault Group, Nissan and Mitsubishi brands reached 2.25 million vehicles in 2024, up 3.9%.

    The penetration rate, all engines combined, will be 42.3% in 2024, down 1.1 points on 2023. The penetration rate for electric vehicles is 45%, 2.9 points higher than for other types of engines.

    Mobilize Financial Services sold 3.7 million service and insurance contracts in 2024, down 4.4% on 2023.

    Used vehicle financing was down 5.9% on 2023, with 310,747 loans financed.

    Mobilize Financial Services is continuing to roll out operational leasing offers in partnership with its dealer network, via Mobilize Lease&Co. In a buoyant operational leasing market, Mobilize Lease&Co aims to expand its fleet to one million vehicles by 2030. Renault Group’s full-service leasing offerings in Europe and Latin America are showing a very positive trend for 2024, with volumes up 11% on the previous year.

    In 2024, Mobilize Financial Services achieved a record level of customer recommendation with a Net Promoter Score4 of +59 in June 2024, up one point compared to November 2023, the date of the previous edition of this barometer. Mobilize Financial Services has also achieved a 79% satisfaction rate among its dealer customers, up 4 points compared with 2023, and a Net Promoter Score of +49 (+11 points compared with 2023).

    FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE CONFIRMS THE RELEVANCE OF MOBILIZE FINANCIAL SERVICES’ STRATEGY

    At the end of 2024, net assets at end of business reached 61 billion euros compared with 54.7 billion euros at the end of 2023, an increase of 11.6% on the previous year.

    Net banking income (NBI) came to 2,180 million euros, up 11.2% on 2023. This increase is due to growth in outstandings, the non-recurrence of a negative impact on the valuation of swaps observed in 2023 and the acquisition of MeinAuto at the beginning of 2024.

    Services account for 34% of NBI, down 2.8 points on 2023.

    The deposit collection business was buoyant. The net savings collected increased by 2.3 billion euros to 30.5 billion euros, compared with 28.2 billion euros at the end of December 2023.

    Operating costs amount to 727 million euros, up 21 million euros on 2023. This increase is due to the inclusion of MeinAuto’s operating costs in 2024. Operating expenses represent 1.30% of average performing assets (APA), an improvement of 8 basis points compared with 2023.

    The overall cost of risk is 0.31% of APAs, compared with 0.30% in 2023.

    Pre-tax income was therefore 1,194 million euros, compared with 1,034 million euros at the end of December 2023.

    MOBILIZE FINANCIAL SERVICES, MORE THAN 4,000 EMPLOYEES COMMITTED TO SUPPORTING THE TRANSITION TO MORE SUSTAINABLE MOBILITY

    Mobilize Financial Services focuses on four priorities:

    • Offers based on usage throughout the vehicle’s life cycle to meet the changing mobility needs of professional and retail customers. Mobilize Financial Services is continuing to develop its loyalty-building operational leasing offers, with the aim of developing a pan-European range of offers for new and used vehicles.
    • Insurance and services tailored to new mobility needs: new offers will be tested and deployed according to the value they bring to customers and to Renault Group, to cover new uses and the real needs of the market.
    • The ongoing development of information systems: Mobilize Financial Services continues to invest in the transformation of its digital tools, in order to benefit from the latest technological standards and increased flexibility in the management of its activities. This development is being carried out with particular attention to the customer experience, in compliance with cybersecurity and data protection requirements.
    • Operational excellence: the Group will take great care to improve its efficiency by simplifying and harmonising its processes, to the benefit of all its businesses.

    In pursuing these focus areas, Mobilize Financial Services relies on two fundamental levers:

    • Consolidate the management of its sustainable development strategy, in line with Renault Group’s ESG approach.
    • Managing risks and ensuring compliance throughout the Group to protect its customers and its business.
     
    About Mobilize Financial Services

    Attentive to the needs of all its customers, Mobilize Financial Services, a subsidiary of Renault Group, creates innovative financial services to build sustainable mobility for all. Mobilize Financial Services, which began operations over 100 years ago, is the commercial brand of RCI Banque SA, a French bank specializing in automotive financing and services for customers and networks of Renault Group, and also for the brands Nissan and Mitsubishi in several countries. With operations in 35 countries and over 4,000 employees, Mobilize Financial Services financed more than 1,2 million contracts (new and used vehicles) in 2023 and sold 3,7 million service contracts. At the end of December 2024, average earning assets stood at 61 billion euros of financing and pre-tax earnings at 1 194 million euros. Since 2012, the Group has deployed a deposit-taking business in several countries. At the end of December 2024, net deposits amounted to 30,5 billion euros, or 50 % of the company’s net assets.    

    The consolidated financial statements of RCI Banque Groupe and RCI Banque S.A. at 31 December 2024 were approved by the Board of Directors on 11 February 2025. The audit procedures on the consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2024 have beeń substantially completed. The audit reports relating to the certification of these consolidated financial statements will be issued after verification of the management report and finalisation of the procedures required for the purposes of publication of the 2024 Annual Financial Report in ESEF format. The 6-page business report with an analysis of the financial results for 2024 and the uncertified consolidated financial statements are available on www.mobilize-fs.com under the headings ‘Business Report’ and ‘Financial Reports’ on the ‘Finance’ page.

    Find more about Mobilize Financial Services on : www.mobilize-fs.com/

    Read this press release online, click here
    Press contacts

    Hopscotch PR
    +33 (0)1 41 34 22 03
    mobilize-fs-presse@hopscotch.fr

     

    1 Except Equity Accounted Companies
    2 Average performing assets: APA corresponds to average performing assets plus assets related to operating leases. For customers, this is the average of month-end performing assets. For the dealer network, it is the average of daily performing assets.
    3 Net assets at-end = Total net outstandings at-end + operating leases transactions net of depreciation and impairement.
    4 The Net Promoter Score (NPS) is the percentage of customers who rate their likelihood of recommending a company, product or service to a friend or colleague as 9 or 10 (“promoters”) minus the percentage who rate this likelihood as 6 or less (“detractors”) on a scale of 0 to 10.

    Attachment

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Panasonic in Numbers: Panasonic HX

    Source: Panasonic

    Headline: Panasonic in Numbers: Panasonic HX

    Panasonic Manufacturing UK Ltd. (Location: Cardiff, Wales, UK; hereinafter referred to as “PMUK”), which develops, manufactures, and sells microwave ovens and other products in the UK, has completed the installation and begun trial operation of a demonstration power generation system. The microwave oven assembly factory is powered by renewable energy generated by the system through the integrated control of three types of energy sources: pure hydrogen fuel cell generators, photovoltaic generators, and storage batteries. This demonstration system, the first of its kind outside Japan, will bring Panasonic HX to scale with the Group seeking to build relationships with government agencies, local partner companies and business customers related to the hydrogen business to establish a foundation that will contribute to UK society and climate change countermeasures in the UK and across Europe.
    This demonstration uses green hydrogen produced in the UK for in-house power generation and aims to supply 100% of the electricity consumed in PMUK’s microwave assembly from renewable sources by means of pure hydrogen fuel cell generators using green hydrogen, in combination with photovoltaic generators and storage batteries. This globally unique initiative integrating the three energy sources into a demonstration facility is the first attempt even for Panasonic. Through this demonstration, Panasonic is committed to developing its hydrogen business from a long-term perspective toward the realization of a future hydrogen society and carbon neutrality.

    The content in this website is accurate at the time of publication but may be subject to change without notice.Please note therefore that these documents may not always contain the most up-to-date information.Please note that German, French and Chinese versions are machine translations, so the quality and accuracy may vary.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Global: It’s the biggest Egyptian tomb discovery in a century. Who was Thutmose II?

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Anna M. Kotarba-Morley, Senior Lecturer in Museum and Curatorial Studies / Research Fellow, University of Adelaide

    Wikimedia/The Conversation

    Archaeologists in Egypt have made an exciting discovery: the tomb of Pharaoh Thutmose II, a ruler who has long been overshadowed by his famous wife and half-sister, Queen Hatshepsut.

    The remarkable find is located in the Western Valley (a burial ground for queens rather than kings), near the complex of Deir el-Bahari, which houses the funerary temple of Hatshepsut. Both of us worked together as archaeologists at this spectacular site some 15 years ago.

    Thutmose II’s tomb has been labelled the first, and biggest, discovery of a royal tomb since Tutankhamun’s tomb was found just over 100 years ago.

    Despite being totally empty, it’s a crucial element in further understanding a transformative period in ancient Egyptian history.

    Hatshepsut’s forgotten brother and husband

    Thutmose II (also called Akheperenre) reigned in the first half of the 15th century BCE. This made him the fourth ruler of the 18th Egyptian Dynasty, which marked the beginning of the New Kingdom period.

    Thutmose II likely ruled for a little over ten years, although some scholars believe his reign may have lasted only three years.

    He was the son of a great pharaoh Thutmose I and his lesser wife, Mutnofret. He married his half-sister Queen Hatshepsut according to the royal custom, to solidify the rule and bloodline. Together they had a daughter named Nefrure.

    Thutmose II’s mummy was discovered in 1881 but his original tomb was unknown until now.
    Wikimedia

    Upon his death, his wife Hatshepsut became the sixth pharaoh of the 18th Dynasty – and arguably one of the most famous and successful female rulers of all time.

    Military activities

    As the successor of Thutmose I, Thutmose II continued his father’s military policy in the southern regions of Egypt.

    According to preserved inscriptions, he ordered the brutal suppression of a rebellion against Egyptian rule in the land of Kush (in present-day north Sudan). As a result, a significant number of prisoners were brought to Egypt – possibly as part of a campaign.

    But Thutmose II’s military campaigns were minor in comparison to the grand conquests of his predecessors and successors. Most historians believe he was a weak ruler and that Hatshepsut had a major role in governing the country, even long before his death. However, others contest this.

    Thutmose II’s short reign left modest traces of building activity in Karnak, one of the largest religious centres in ancient Egypt, located in present-day Luxor.

    The structure, of which only fragments survive, features a unique decoration depicting Thutmose II, Hatshepsut as his royal wife before she became a ruler, and their daughter Nefrure. The origins of the monument are uncertain. It’s possible Thutmose II started it and Hatshepsut finished it.

    The monument was reconstructed by French researchers and can now be admired at the Open Air Museum in Karnak.

    Karnak is one of the most important religious centres in Ancient Egypt.
    Katarzyna Kapiec

    Other monuments of Thutmose II were found in the southern regions of Egypt, such as in Elephantine, in the city of Aswan, and in northern Sudan (likely connected to his military campaigns).

    The condemnation of Hatshepsut’s memory

    Interestingly, the name of Thutmose II became strongly associated with many of Hatshepsut’s constructions due to the actions of Thutmose III.

    Regarded as one of the greatest warriors, military commanders and military strategists of all time, Thutmose III was the nephew and stepson of Hatshepsut, and co-ruled with her as a regent.

    At the end of Thutmose III’s reign, some 20 years after Hatshepsut’s death, he carried out a large-scale campaign to remove or alter Hatshepsut’s names and images. Scholars call this “damnatio memoriae”, or condemnation of the memory.

    An example of Hatshepsut’s ‘damnatio memoriae’ at Deir el-Bahari. Hatshepsut’s cartouches (left) were defaced, while Thutmose III’s (right) remained untouched.
    Wikimedia

    This was likely due to concerns about securing the throne for his successor, Amenhotep II, by linking him to his male ancestors.

    In many cases, Hatshepsut’s name was replaced with that of Thutmose II, making him the principal celebrant in temples built by Hatshepsut, such as in Deir el-Bahari.

    View at the temple of Hatshepsut at Deir el-Bahari at the dawn.
    Katarzyna Kapiec

    What does Thutmose II’s empty tomb tell us?

    The newly discovered tomb reveals fresh details about the status of Thutmose II and his role in the sociopolitical structure of 15th century BCE Egypt – a period of territorial expansion, wealth and political intrigue. It also sheds light on the perception of his rule at the time.

    Thutmose II has been painted as an ineffectual ruler. And the latest findings don’t contradict this.

    Unlike his father Thutmose I, who expanded Egypt’s reign through military strength, or his stepson Thutmose III, who became one of the most famous Egyptian warrior-kings, his modest tomb suggests his legacy may not have been as widely celebrated as others in his dynasty.

    The tomb’s location is also intriguing, as it is near the tombs of royal wives, including the cliff tomb of Hatshepsut, which was prepared for her when she was still a royal wife.

    Thutmose II’s mummy was discovered in the so-called Royal Cache in Deir el-Bahari in 1881, alongside other royal mummies. Many royal mummies were relocated here for protection from flooding and during the uncertain times of the 21st Dynasty (circa 1077–950 BCE), some 400–500 years after Thutmose II’s original burial.

    However, experts suspect Thutmose II’s tomb might have been emptied even earlier due to flooding from a waterfall above it.

    The two of us speculate another tomb may have been built for him, and is still awaiting discovery.

    An 1881 photograph of some of the coffins and mummies found in DB320, taken before the mummies were unwrapped.
    Wikimedia

    Ultimately, Thutmose II’s reign remains shrouded in mystery due to the lack of available records. The search for his tomb – from Western Valley, through the Valley of the Kings, all the way to Deir el-Bahari – spanned centuries.

    Despite its poorly preserved state, and its scarcity compared with Tutankhamun’s splendorous tomb, this discovery will expand our understanding of the overlooked figure of Thutmose II, and the role he played in setting up the reign of Hatshepsut – arguably the most successful of the four female pharaohs.

    In fact, paving the way for the ascent of Hatshepsut may have been his greatest contribution.

    Anna M. Kotarba-Morley receives funding from Australian Research Council and previously received funding from National Centre of Science in Poland.

    Katarzyna Kapiec receives funding from National Science Centre in Poland

    ref. It’s the biggest Egyptian tomb discovery in a century. Who was Thutmose II? – https://theconversation.com/its-the-biggest-egyptian-tomb-discovery-in-a-century-who-was-thutmose-ii-250432

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-Evening Report: It’s the biggest Egyptian tomb discovery in a century. Who was Thutmose II?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna M. Kotarba-Morley, Senior Lecturer in Museum and Curatorial Studies / Research Fellow, University of Adelaide

    Wikimedia/The Conversation

    Archaeologists in Egypt have made an exciting discovery: the tomb of Pharaoh Thutmose II, a ruler who has long been overshadowed by his famous wife and half-sister, Queen Hatshepsut.

    The remarkable find is located in the Western Valley (a burial ground for queens rather than kings), near the complex of Deir el-Bahari, which houses the funerary temple of Hatshepsut. Both of us worked together as archaeologists at this spectacular site some 15 years ago.

    Thutmose II’s tomb has been labelled the first, and biggest, discovery of a royal tomb since Tutankhamun’s tomb was found just over 100 years ago.

    Despite being totally empty, it’s a crucial element in further understanding a transformative period in ancient Egyptian history.

    Hatshepsut’s forgotten brother and husband

    Thutmose II (also called Akheperenre) reigned in the first half of the 15th century BCE. This made him the fourth ruler of the 18th Egyptian Dynasty, which marked the beginning of the New Kingdom period.

    Thutmose II likely ruled for a little over ten years, although some scholars believe his reign may have lasted only three years.

    He was the son of a great pharaoh Thutmose I and his lesser wife, Mutnofret. He married his half-sister Queen Hatshepsut according to the royal custom, to solidify the rule and bloodline. Together they had a daughter named Nefrure.

    Thutmose II’s mummy was discovered in 1881 but his original tomb was unknown until now.
    Wikimedia

    Upon his death, his wife Hatshepsut became the sixth pharaoh of the 18th Dynasty – and arguably one of the most famous and successful female rulers of all time.

    Military activities

    As the successor of Thutmose I, Thutmose II continued his father’s military policy in the southern regions of Egypt.

    According to preserved inscriptions, he ordered the brutal suppression of a rebellion against Egyptian rule in the land of Kush (in present-day north Sudan). As a result, a significant number of prisoners were brought to Egypt – possibly as part of a campaign.

    But Thutmose II’s military campaigns were minor in comparison to the grand conquests of his predecessors and successors. Most historians believe he was a weak ruler and that Hatshepsut had a major role in governing the country, even long before his death. However, others contest this.

    Thutmose II’s short reign left modest traces of building activity in Karnak, one of the largest religious centres in ancient Egypt, located in present-day Luxor.

    The structure, of which only fragments survive, features a unique decoration depicting Thutmose II, Hatshepsut as his royal wife before she became a ruler, and their daughter Nefrure. The origins of the monument are uncertain. It’s possible Thutmose II started it and Hatshepsut finished it.

    The monument was reconstructed by French researchers and can now be admired at the Open Air Museum in Karnak.

    Karnak is one of the most important religious centres in Ancient Egypt.
    Katarzyna Kapiec

    Other monuments of Thutmose II were found in the southern regions of Egypt, such as in Elephantine, in the city of Aswan, and in northern Sudan (likely connected to his military campaigns).

    The condemnation of Hatshepsut’s memory

    Interestingly, the name of Thutmose II became strongly associated with many of Hatshepsut’s constructions due to the actions of Thutmose III.

    Regarded as one of the greatest warriors, military commanders and military strategists of all time, Thutmose III was the nephew and stepson of Hatshepsut, and co-ruled with her as a regent.

    At the end of Thutmose III’s reign, some 20 years after Hatshepsut’s death, he carried out a large-scale campaign to remove or alter Hatshepsut’s names and images. Scholars call this “damnatio memoriae”, or condemnation of the memory.

    An example of Hatshepsut’s ‘damnatio memoriae’ at Deir el-Bahari. Hatshepsut’s cartouches (left) were defaced, while Thutmose III’s (right) remained untouched.
    Wikimedia

    This was likely due to concerns about securing the throne for his successor, Amenhotep II, by linking him to his male ancestors.

    In many cases, Hatshepsut’s name was replaced with that of Thutmose II, making him the principal celebrant in temples built by Hatshepsut, such as in Deir el-Bahari.

    View at the temple of Hatshepsut at Deir el-Bahari at the dawn.
    Katarzyna Kapiec

    What does Thutmose II’s empty tomb tell us?

    The newly discovered tomb reveals fresh details about the status of Thutmose II and his role in the sociopolitical structure of 15th century BCE Egypt – a period of territorial expansion, wealth and political intrigue. It also sheds light on the perception of his rule at the time.

    Thutmose II has been painted as an ineffectual ruler. And the latest findings don’t contradict this.

    Unlike his father Thutmose I, who expanded Egypt’s reign through military strength, or his stepson Thutmose III, who became one of the most famous Egyptian warrior-kings, his modest tomb suggests his legacy may not have been as widely celebrated as others in his dynasty.

    The tomb’s location is also intriguing, as it is near the tombs of royal wives, including the cliff tomb of Hatshepsut, which was prepared for her when she was still a royal wife.

    Thutmose II’s mummy was discovered in the so-called Royal Cache in Deir el-Bahari in 1881, alongside other royal mummies. Many royal mummies were relocated here for protection from flooding and during the uncertain times of the 21st Dynasty (circa 1077–950 BCE), some 400–500 years after Thutmose II’s original burial.

    However, experts suspect Thutmose II’s tomb might have been emptied even earlier due to flooding from a waterfall above it.

    The two of us speculate another tomb may have been built for him, and is still awaiting discovery.

    An 1881 photograph of some of the coffins and mummies found in DB320, taken before the mummies were unwrapped.
    Wikimedia

    Ultimately, Thutmose II’s reign remains shrouded in mystery due to the lack of available records. The search for his tomb – from Western Valley, through the Valley of the Kings, all the way to Deir el-Bahari – spanned centuries.

    Despite its poorly preserved state, and its scarcity compared with Tutankhamun’s splendorous tomb, this discovery will expand our understanding of the overlooked figure of Thutmose II, and the role he played in setting up the reign of Hatshepsut – arguably the most successful of the four female pharaohs.

    In fact, paving the way for the ascent of Hatshepsut may have been his greatest contribution.

    Anna M. Kotarba-Morley receives funding from Australian Research Council and previously received funding from National Centre of Science in Poland.

    Katarzyna Kapiec receives funding from National Science Centre in Poland

    ref. It’s the biggest Egyptian tomb discovery in a century. Who was Thutmose II? – https://theconversation.com/its-the-biggest-egyptian-tomb-discovery-in-a-century-who-was-thutmose-ii-250432

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI China: Macron to talk with Trump over Ukraine, tariffs

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    French President Emmanuel Macron (C), U.S. President-elect Donald Trump (R) and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are pictured after their meeting in Paris, France, Dec. 7, 2024. [Photo/Xinhua]

    French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to the United States for discussions with his U.S. counterpart, Donald Trump, focusing on the Ukraine issue and impending U.S. tariffs, French Minister Delegate for European Affairs Benjamin Haddad confirmed on Thursday.

    Speaking to French television channel LCI, Haddad revealed that Macron had already spoken with Trump twice this week regarding Ukraine. “Our approach is to maintain dialogue with the president of the United States to ensure that the voice of the Europeans is heard in this negotiation,” he said.

    Macron is expected to emphasize to Trump that “the future of Ukraine cannot be decided without the Ukrainians, and the future and security of Europe cannot be negotiated and decided without the Europeans.” Haddad stressed that Europe has contributed more to Ukraine than the United States, and therefore, must have a say in the process.

    Moreover, Macron will also address tariffs that Trump plans to impose on European products. “A trade war, protectionism is not in anyone’s interest,” the minister warned.

    This week, Macron has hosted European and non-European partners twice to coordinate a common stance on Ukraine. Both meetings concluded with a unified position that any peace talks should include both Ukraine and Europe.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-Evening Report: France’s Minister Valls faces tough talks in New Caledonia over future

    By Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk

    As French Minister for Overseas Manuel Valls lands in New Caledonia tomorrow to pursue talks on its political future, the situation on the ground has again gained tension over the past few days.

    The local political spectrum is deeply divided between the two main opposing camps, the pro-independence and those wanting New Caledonia to remain part of France.

    The rift has already culminated in May 2024 with rioting resulting in 14 deaths, several hundreds injured, thousands of job losses due to the destruction, burning and looting of businesses, and a material cost of over 2 billion euros (NZ$3.7 billion).

    Valls hosted talks in Paris with every party represented in New Caledonia’s Congress on February 4-9.

    Those talks, held in “bilateral” mode, led to his decision to travel to Nouméa and attempt to bring everyone to the same negotiating table.

    It is all about finding an agreement that would allow an exit from the Nouméa Accord and to draw a fresh roadmap for New Caledonia’s political future.

    However, in the face of radically different and opposing views, the challenge is huge.

    The two main blocs, even though they acknowledged the Paris talks may have been helpful, still hold very clear-cut and antagonistic positions.

    Each camp seems to have their own interpretation of the 1998 Nouméa Accord, which has until now defined a roadmap for further autonomy and a gradual transfer of powers.

    The main bloc within the pro-independence side, Union Calédonienne (UC), which since last year de facto controls the wider FLNKS (Kanak Socialist National Liberation Front), has been repeatedly placing as its target a new “Kanaky Agreement” to be signed by 24 September 2025 and, from that date, a five-year “transition period” to attain full independence from France.

    Within the pro-independence camp, more moderate parties, such as PALIKA (Kanak Liberation Party) and UPM (Progressist Union in Melanesia), have distanced themselves from a UC-dominated FLNKS, and are favourable to some kind of “independence in association with France”.

    On the pro-France side, the two main components, the Les Loyalistes and the Rassemblement-LR, have shown a united front. One of their main arguments is based on the fact that in 2018, 2020 and 2021, three successive referenda on self-determination have resulted in three votes, each of those producing a majority rejecting independence.

    However, the third and latest poll in December 2021 was boycotted by most of the pro-independence voters.

    The pro-independence parties have since challenged the 2021 poll result, even though it has been ruled by the courts as valid.

    Pro-France parties are also advocating for a change in the political system to give each of New Caledonia’s three provinces more powers, a move they described as an “internal federalism” but that critics have decried, saying this amounted to a kind of apartheid.

    Talks required since 2022
    The bipartisan talks became necessary after the three referendums were held.

    The Nouméa Accord stipulated that in the event that three consecutive referendums rejected independence, then all political stakeholders should “meet and examine the situation”.

    There have been earlier attempts to bring about those talks, but some components of the pro-independence movement, notably the UC, have consistently declined.

    Under a previous government, French Minister for Home Affairs and Overseas territories Gérald Darmanin, after half a dozen inconclusive trips to New Caledonia, tried to push some of the most urgent parts of the political agreement through a constitutional reform process, especially on a change to New Caledonia’s list of eligible registered voters at local elections.

    This was supposed to allow citizens who have resided in New Caledonia for at least ten uninterrupted years to finally cast their votes. Until now, the electoral roll has been “frozen” since 2009 — only those residing before 1998 had the right to vote.

    Pro-independence parties protested, saying this was a way of “diluting” the indigenous Kanak votes.

    The protest — in the name of “Kanak existential identity” — gained momentum and on 13 May 2024 erupted into riots.

    Now the sensitive electoral roll issue is back on the agenda, only it will no longer be tackled separately, but will be part of a wider and comprehensive scope of talks regarding New Caledonia’s political future.

    Heavy schedule for Valls
    On Thursday, Valls unveiled his programme for what is scheduled to be a six-day stay in New Caledonia from 22-26 February 2025.

    During this time, he will spend a significant amount of time in the capital Nouméa, holding talks with political parties, economic stakeholders and representatives of the civil society and law and order agencies.

    He will also travel to rural parts of New Caledonia.

    In the capital, two solid days have been earmarked for “negotiations” at the Congress, with the aim of finding the best way to achieve a political agreement, if all parties agree to meet and talk.

    On Tuesday, February 25, Valls also intends to pay homage and lay wreaths on independence leader Jean-Marie Tjibaou and anti-independence leader Jacques Lafleur’s graves.

    They were the leaders of FLNKS and (pro-France) RPCR, who eventually signed the Matignon Accords in 1998 and shook hands after half a decade of quasi civil war, during the previous civil unrest in the second half of the 1980s.

    Valls was then a young member of French Prime Minister Michel Rocard (Socialist) who enabled the Matignon agreement.

    On several occasions, over the past few days, Valls has stressed the grave situation New Caledonia has been facing since the riots, the “devastated” economy and the need to restore a bipartisan dialogue.

    He told public broadcaster NC La Première that since the unrest started had France had provided financial support to sustain New Caledonia’s economy.

    ‘Fractures and deep wounds within New Caledonia’s society’
    “But blood has been shed . . . there have been deaths, injuries, there are fractures and deep wounds within New Caledonia’s society,” Valls said.

    “And to get out of this, dialogue is needed, to find a compromise . . . to prevent violence from coming back. I still believe those (opposing) positions are reconcilable, even though they’re quite far apart,” he said.

    “I’m very much aware of the difficulties . . . but we have to find an agreement, a compromise.”

    One clear indication that during his visit to New Caledonia the French minister will be walking on shaky ground came a few days ago.

    When, speaking to French national daily Le Monde, he recalled the Nouméa Accord included a wide range of possible perspectives from “a shared sovereignty” to a “full sovereignty”, there was an immediate outcry from the pro-French parties, who steadfastly brandished the three recent referendums opposing independence and urging the minister to respect those “democratic” results.

    “Respecting the Nouméa Accord means respecting the choice of New Caledonians”, said Les Loyalistes-Le Rassemblement-LR in a media release.

    “Shared sovereignty is the current situation. It’s all in the Nouméa Accord, which itself is enshrined in the French Constitution”, Valls replied.

    Over the past six months, several notions have emerged in terms of a political future for New Caledonia.

    It all comes down to wording: from independence-association (Cook Islands style), to outright “independence” or “shared sovereignty” (as suggested by French Senate President Gérard Larcher during his visit in October 2024).

    A former justice minister under Socialist President François Hollande, Jean-Jacques Urvoas, well-versed in New Caledonian affairs, suggested an innovative wording which, he believed, could bring about some form of consensus — the term “associated state”, could be slightly modified into “associated country” (“country” being one of the ways to describe New Caledonia, also described as a sui generis entity under French Law).

    Urvoas said this would make the notion more palatable.

    Pro-France meetings indoors
    On Wednesday evening, in an indoor multi-purpose hall in Nouméa, an estimated 2000 sympathisers of pro-France Rassemblement and Loyalists gathered to hear and support their leaders who had come to explain what was discussed in Paris and reiterate the pro-France bloc’s position.

    “We told [Valls] the ‘bilaterals’ are over. Now we want plenary discussions or nothing,” pro-France Virginie Ruffenach told the crowd.

    “We will tell him: Manuel, your full sovereignty is No Pasaran! (in Spanish ‘Will not pass’, a reference to Valls’s Spanish heritage),” said Nicolas Metzdorf, who is also one of the two New Caledonian MPs in the French National Assembly, speaking to supporters brandishing blue, white and red French flags.

    Metzdorf said he hoped that supporters would show up during the minister’s visit with the same flags “to remind him of three “no” votes in the three referenda.

    A ban on all open-air public meetings is still in force in Nouméa and its greater area.

    The two-flag driving licence declared illegal. Image: New Caledonia govt

    Double flags banned on driving licences
    Adding to the current tensions, an announcement also came earlier this week regarding a court ruling on another highly sensitive issue — the flag.

    The ruling came in an appeal case from the Paris Administrative Court.

    It overturned a ruling made in 2023 by the former New Caledonian (pro-independence) territorial government to add the Kanak flag to the local driving licence, next to the French flag.

    In its February 14 ruling, the Appeal Court stated that the Kanak flag could not be used on such official documents because “it is not the official flag” of New Caledonia.

    The court once again referred to the Nouméa Accord, which said the Kanak flag, even though it was often used alongside the French flag, had not been formally endorsed as New Caledonia’s “identity symbol”.

    The tribunal also urged the new government to make the necessary changes and to re-circulate the former one-flag version “without delay”.

    Meanwhile, the government is bearing the cost of a fine of 100, 000 French Pacific francs (about US$875) a day, which currently totals over US$43,000 since January 1.

    The “identity symbols”, as defined by the Nouméa Accord, also include a motto (the wording ‘Terre de Parole, Terre de Partage’ — Land of Words, Land of Sharing’ was chosen) and even a national anthem.

    But despite several attempts since 1998, no agreement has yet been reached on a common flag.

    This week, hours after the court ruling, an image is being circulated on social media declaring: “If this flags disturbs you, I’ll help you pack your suitcase” (“Si ce drapeau te dérange, je t’aide à faire tes valises”).

    This article is republished under a community partnership agreement with RNZ.

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI USA News: Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz

    Source: The White House

    class=”has-text-align-left”>
    1:05 P.M. EST
     
         MS. LEAVITT:  Hello.  Good afternoon, everybody.  I brought some heavy hitters in here with me today. 
     
    Today marks one month of President Trump’s return to the Oval Office, and there is no denying this administration is off to a historic start.  The President has already signed 73 executive orders.  That is more than double the number signed by Joe Biden and more than quadruple the number signed by Barack Obama over the same period.
     
    These executive orders have ended burdensome regulations; sealed the border; unleashed our domestic energy sector; eliminated divisive DEI from our federal government; stopped the weaponization of government; cut waste, fraud, and abuse; reinstituted “America First” trade and foreign policies; and ultimately restored common sense. 
     
    The President also signed the Laken Riley Act into law, which ensures ICE will detain illegal aliens arrested or charged with theft or violence. 
     
    As of today, the Senate has already confirmed 18 Cabinet-level nominees, which is more than at this point under the Obama administration in 2009 and more than double the pace of the Biden administration in 2021. 
     
    And today, we expect Kash Patel to be confirmed as the next director of the FBI. 
     
    We are proud to announce that the president will host his first official Cabinet meeting here at the White House next Wednesday, February 26th. 
     
    In just four weeks, President Trump has already hosted the leaders of Israel, Japan, Jordan, and India.  And next Monday, the President will host France’s President, Emmanuel Macron, and on Thursday, the UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, will visit the White House as well. 
     
    As you all know, over the past month, the President has taken questions from the press — all of you — nearly every single day, sometimes on multiple different occasions in the same day, on any topic any of you wish to talk about. 
     
    President Trump set the tone on this approach immediately when he took more than 12 times the questions in his first few hours in office as Joe Biden did in his entire first week. 
     
    Yesterday, we hosted a local media row here at the White House with television and radio stations from across the country that reached up to 60 million viewers and listeners. 
     
    In our ongoing pursuit of transparency, on this one-month celebration, I am thrilled to bring three of my colleagues and our policy experts here at the White House to further recap this incredible first month of accomplishments in greater detail.
     
    We have Deputy Chief of Staff for Policy and Homeland Security Advisor Stephen Miller; the Director of the National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett; and our National Security Advisor, Mike Waltz. 
     
    I will hand it over to them.  They will deliver brief remarks on the accomplishments of this administration in the first month, and then we will open it up to Q and A.  When we open up the Q and A portion, I do ask, for the sake of efficiency in this room, that you direct your question to the principal you seek an answer from.  And I will call on you in this room.
     
    But first I will let them roll through their remarks.  And first up, I’ll turn it over to Stephen Miller.
     
    MR. MILLER:  Thank you.  It’s great to be back.
     
    And I want to just thank you all for joining today our one-month celebration of the most historic opening to a presidency in American history.  No president comes close to what Donald Trump has achieved over just the last 30 days.
     
    He has packed eight years of transformative action restoring this nation, restoring our laws, restoring fairness, restoring economic opportunity, restoring national security in just one month.  No one in this country has ever seen anything like it. 
     
    And when you look at the consequentiality and the significance and the transformative nature of the actions he’s taking, it truly defies description.  For example, in just one area, this nation has been plagued and crippled by illegal discrimination: diversity, equity, and inclusion policies.  It strangled our economy.  It has undermined public safety.  It has made every aspect of life more difficult, more painful, and less safe. 
     
    He has ended all DEI across the federal government.  He has terminated all federal workers involved in promulgating these unlawful policies.  He has ended diversity, equity, and inclusion in all federal contracting.  He has restored merit as the cornerstone of all federal policy; restored the full, fair, impartial enforcement of our federal civil rights laws for the first time in generations; and he has cracked down on individuals across this government and nonprofits who have engaged in illegal racial discrimination against the American people. 
     
    This includes making clear to every educational institution in this country that ending diversity, equity, and inclusion, ending unlawful race discrimination is a precondition of receiving federal funds. 
     
    He has also saved women’s sports by ending the participation of men in women’s sports.  He has ended radical gender ideology across the entire federal government, and he’s pressured the private sector to also end and combat radical gender ideology.  He’s reestablished the scientific and biological truth that there are only two sexes in this country — male and female — that those are biologically based determinations.  They are not based and can never be based on gender identity. 
     
    That includes rooting out of the Department of Defense all DEI policies, all critical race theory, all gender madness, and once again having a military that is focused solely and exclusively on readiness, preparedness, and lethality.
     
    As I’m sure Kevin will talk about more, of course, he has undertaken a historic cost-cutting effort across the federal government, launching the first-ever Department of Government Efficiency, uncovering corruption on a scale that we never thought imaginable, terminating every single federal worker that we — that we have found to be engaged in the corruption and theft and the waste of taxpayer dollars, and already saving $50 billion in a single year, which over a 10-year period would be $500 billion.  Just think about how vast and enormous that sum is. 
     
    Of course, as you all know, he has renamed the Gulf of Mexico to its correct and proper name: the Gulf of America.  He has renamed Mount Denali into Mount McKinley, part of a historic effort to restore patriotism and national pride all across this land. 
     
    He has ended the weaponization of the federal government, restored the Department of Justice to its true mission of combating threats to this nation and keeping the American people safe. 
     
    He has ended all federal censorship of free speech.  This has been one of the greatest crises that has plagued this nation.  Years and years and years, the federal government violating the First Amendment to take away Americans’ right of free speech — President Trump has ended that.  And he has demanded that all federal workers, all law enforcement cease any effort to intimidate the rights of Americans or to police their speech. 
     
    He has also restored the death penalty at the Department of Justice, including for illegal aliens who commit murder, including for those who murder cops, and including for all of those who threaten Americans with heinous acts of violence.  The death penalty is back.  Law and order is back.  The streets are being made safe once again. 
     
    On the public health front, he has launched the nation’s first-ever commission — the MAHA Commission — Make America Healthy Again, following the historic confirmation of RFK Jr., to finally uncover the true root causes of the public health crisis in this country, the childhood disease epidemic in this country, the spiraling rates of pediatric cancer and devastating childhood sickness. 
     
    He has finally created a situation where the federal heal- — health agencies in this country will be focused on preventing disease, on keeping children from getting sick in the first place, not sentencing them to a lifetime in and out of hospitals, suffering needlessly, when we can find ways to prevent this epidemic of illness. 
     
    Then, of course, on homeland security.  Today, it is officially the law of the land at the conclusion of the congressional notification process that six Mexican cartels and two transnational gangs — Tren de Aragua, or TDA, and MS-13 — so eight organizations in total — are now formally designated as foreign terrorist organizations, which means that every single member of those organizations who operates on U.S. soil is now, as a legal matter, a terrorist, and they will be treated as terrorists. 
     
    This is a sea change in U.S. policy.  And this means the Department of Justice and the Department of Homeland Security, along with the rest of U.S. law enforcement and the Department of Defense, are now operating in a legal reality where these cartels are recognized as terrorists, and there will be a whole-of-government effort to remove these terrorists from our soil and to degrade their ability to threaten or undermine any American security or sovereignty interests.
     
    Border crossings since the day he took office are down 95 percent.  I think it’s almost impossible to even describe the scale and scope of that achievement.  President Trump, within days of taking office, cut border crossings 95 percent. 
     
    And those few who have dared to cross are being either prosecuted or deported.  They’re either facing significant jail time for trafficking, smuggling, harboring, aiding, impeding, or they’re being immediately removed from our soil.  Either way, at the end of the process, they are going home. 
     
    He has reimplemented Remain in Mexico, and he has obtained historic cooperation from foreign countries all around the world in accepting their deportees back. 
     
    And he has used the United States military to fully seal the southern border with a historic deployment of both active duty and National Guard troops, resumed the building of infrastructure.  He has opened up Guantanamo Bay, and he’s using military aircraft to carry out deportations all across this country. 
     
    And ICE is joining with ATF, DEA, and FBI to carry out the largest deportation operation in American history.  The criminals are going home.  The border is sealed shut.  America is safe, sovereign, proud, and free.  We are a nation that everyone in the world understands all across this planet: You do not come here illegally.  You will not get in.  You will go to jail.  You will go home.  You will not succeed. 
     
    This is the biggest and most successful change in any area of law enforcement that this nation has ever seen, and he did it in under one month. 
     
    Thank you.
     
    MR. HASSETT:  Should I go?
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Yes, yes.
     
    MR. HASSETT:  Well, thank you, Karoline.  Thank you, Stephen. 
     
    You know, one of the things that President Trump cares most about is job creation.  And it was about seven years ago I had the honor of joining you in this room for the first time, and it looks like we’ve created a lot more jobs in the last month.  Look at how many people are here.  I — my estimate is about 180 but — but I didn’t count. 
     
    So, thank you.  It’s really an honor to be back here.  I think that I just want to go over a few things and then hand it off to Mike. 
     
    The first thing is that the President has told us to prioritize fighting inflation, and he had to do that because, as you know, President Biden let inflation get completely out of control.  And he did it with policies that made no sense.  They made no sense. 
     
    You know, a lot of times, you people say to us — our friends, the journalists — you know, “Why are you doing that?”  But — but, you know, I like to think, “Why did they do that?  Why did they spend so much money and then — why did the Fed print so much money so that we had inflation as high as we’ve ever seen since Jimmy Carter?  So, why did they do that?”
     
    So, we’re addressing inflation.  We didn’t have to address it in the first term, because it was always in the 1s, almost always.  But we’re going to get it back there. 
     
    And how are we doing it?  Well, we’re doing it with a plan that President Trump and I and others have talked about in the Oval that involves, like, every level of fighting inflation. 
     
    First, the macroeconomic level.  We’re cutting spending.  We’re cutting spending in negotiations with people on the Hill.  We’re cutting spending with the advice of our IT consultant, Elon Musk.  And then we’re also looking into supply-side things, like restoring Trump’s tax cuts, maybe even expensing new factories so that there is an explosion of supply.  If you have an explosion of supply and a reduction in government demand, then inflation goes way down. 
     
    And then, one of the things that you want to say is “Well, when are you going to see it?”  Well, the first thing that you’ll see when the markets believe that we’re going to get inflation under control is that the 10-year Treasury rate goes down, because that’s how they think about future expected inflation. 
     
    And so, we’re still going to see some memory of Biden’s inflation.  It’s not going to go away in a month.  But the 10-year Treasury before the last Consumer Price Index had dropped about 40 basis points.  Forty basis points because markets were optimistic about our ability to fight inflation. 
     
    Forty basis points is kind of not a fun thing to say.  I — economists talk that way.  I apologize.  But the way to think about it is, for a typical mortgage, if that affects the mortgage rate, then it’s going to save a typical family buying a house about a thousand bucks a year, and that’s just in our first month. 
     
    Okay.  The second thing we’ve done is we’ve had a lot of trade talks.  In fact, I was just meeting a minister from Mexico with Howard Lutnick just a couple of hours ago.  And we’re talking about reciprocal trade, and we’re also talking about the fentanyl crisis. 
     
    And so, reciprocal trade is about our government treating other governments the way they treat us.  We want trade to be fair.  It turns out that Americans have been disadvantaged by foreign governments over and over, and President Trump wants it to stop.  And the fact that struck me as most noticeable, when I started to look at what President Trump was asking us to do, is that last year — last year — we have data — U.S. companies paid $370 billion in taxes to foreign governments — $370 billion.  Last year, foreign multinationals paid us $57 billion in taxes. 
     
    We have one quarter of world GDP.  They have three quarters of world GDP.  And we’re paying $370.  They’re paying $57.  This is not reciprocal.  We’re going to try — or we’re going to fix it. 
     
    The other thing that we’ve done is we’ve had an all-of-the-above energy approach that’s led by Doug Burgum and Chris and a really large team — EPA — and we’ve already made so many actions that are going to affect the price of energy and lower inflation. 
     
    We’ve opened up 625 million acres to energy exploration.  We’ve cut 50 years of red tape that makes it so you can’t have permits.  And we’ve even made it so that when you go home, if you get a new one, then you can take a shower or flush a toilet or read under a light bulb.  We’re doing that too. 
     
    So — so, finally, let’s just think about, like, the facts that we can see right now that we think are awesome.  So, guess what?  Small-business optimism is — has go- — gone up by the most ever since President Trump came in.  ISM, which is the measure of what’s going on in manufacturing, it’s expanding again for the first time in years.  CEO confidence is the highest it’s been in years.  And the reason — the reason people are thinking this is that our policies give people cause for optimism. 
     
    And then I want to reiterate what Stephen Miller said, because it’s so important — and it’s so important for financial markets to start to digest this — that if, say, the Treasury secretary or the — any Cabinet secretary, with Elon Musk, is able to find some savings — say, $100 billion — well, in CBO land, that’s actually, like, about 10 times that or maybe 12 times that over a 10-year window. 
     
    And so, when you’re thinking about the negotiations right now over reconciliation and thinking about, well, $4 trillion, $5 trillion, well, those numbers, in terms of the savings, are going to end up being small because of all the waste that we’re finding. 
     
    And so, we’re incredibly optimistic about the future of inflation and the future of our economy.  And we’re optimistic because we’re making so much progress so far, and we already see it in market prices. 
     
    And, with that, I’ll hand it off to Mike. 
     
    MR. WALTZ:  All right.  Thanks, Kevin. 
     
    Well, good afternoon.  What a month and what a sea change in our — in our foreign policy.  In addition to what we’re doing on the border and restoring American sovereignty, in addition to what we’re doing in our economy and the job creation and the inflation reduction, we are bringing the world back to where it was at the end of President Trump’s first term, which is a world of peace, prosperity, and — and looking forward and getting us out of the chaos that we’ve just seen over the last four years. 
     
    So, over the last month, just to name a few, I had the honor of sitting in the Oval Office as President Trump spoke with President Putin and then immediately spoke with President Zelenskyy, and both of them said only President Trump could bring both sides to the table, and only President Trump could stop the horrific fighting that has been going on now for the better part of four years and that only President Trump could drive the world back to peace.  Both of those leaders said that in back-to-back calls.
     
    And, of course, we just had our historic talks mediated by our — our good friends and partners, Saudi Arabia — we give great thanks to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for hosting — and sat down for the first time in years with the Russians and talked about a path forward with peace.
     
    On top of that and one of the things that led to that was a tremendous co- — confidence-building measure that we had with the release of Marc Fogel.  I’ll remind everyone, the last time that we had an American released from the Russians, either we gave up a deadly spy; pressured our allies to give up a lethal killer; or we released, under the Biden administration, the world’s most notorious arms dealer, Viktor Bout, who, by the way, had one of his main clients for arms the cartels in — in Mexico and Central America. 
     
    We gave up none of that.  This was released as a confidence-building measure, working with our great Middle East Envoy, Steve Witkoff, and our secretary of State as a first step towards opening these talks and then moving forward towards peace. 
     
    On top of that, we’ve secured, just in a month, the return of a dozen — 12 — American hostages from Russia, from Bulgaria, from Venezuela, the Taliban, and Hamas.  Excuse me, that’s from Belarus, not Bulgaria. 
     
    We also had — for the first time in quite some time, we took out a senior leader of ISIS, an international financier and recruiter that the military had been trying to take out for quite some time and — and wasn’t able to do so, frankly, because of a bureaucratic approval process.  President Trump said, “Take him out.”  And that ISIS financier and leader is no longer on this Earth. 
     
    We’ve also taken action to eliminate other terrorist organizations in the Middle East.  We drove — before the President was even in office, he started talking consequences for people that would hold Americans. 
     
    Heretofore, there’s been nothing but upside.  You take an American, you get some better deal.  You take another one, maybe you get a better deal.  No more.  There is now nothing but downside for taking Americans illegally, either as hostages or illegal detainees. 
     
    And when President Trump sent a very clear message across the Middle East, but particularly to Hamas, that there would be all hell to pay, we suddenly saw a breakthrough.  And now we just saw the release of yet another group of hostages.  There have been dozens now, including two Americans that we’ve seen once again reunited with their families. 
     
    As part of the talks with King Abdullah, he offered — and — and I think the entire world has graciously accepted — to take 2,000 sick children, cancer patients, and others out of Gaza.  As a humanitarian — as a humanitarian gesture, 2,000 Gazans will come out of that hellhole that it is, that wasteland that Gaza is right now, with unexploded ordnance, with debris everywhere, with no sewage, with no water.  And — and President Trump has — has put forward a plan to deal with the practical reality that is 1.8 million Gazans now — now truly suffering.
     
    And then, you know, just to bring it back to our own hemisphere, we’ve seen literally, in the last month — after years of national security experts, the generals in charge, and others testifying and ringing the alarm bells about — about the Chinese Communist Party’s presence in our own hemisphere, particularly in the Panama Canal, we’re seeing the leadership of Panama step away from the Belt and Road program, move away from China and back towards the United States, and even enter into talks and — and other negotiations about addressing the ports on either side of the canal. 
     
    And then, finally, last but not least, we’ve had four world leaders in the White House, in the Oval Office.  We’ve had the prime minister of Japan, the prime minister of India, the king of — of Jordan, and, of course, the prime minister of Israel just in the last four weeks.  And next week, we’ll have the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and we’ll have the president of France, Macron. 
     
    So, President Trump is on what we call Trump warp speed.  We are all — we are all honored to be really serving under — under his leadership and his vision.  And truly, you know, when we all say — and the President himself say — says, he is a president of peace.  He is a president focused on restoring stability.  I think the entire world saw what the world would look like without strong American leadership in the last four years.
     
    And it’s truly been an honor to get us back to where we were and back on track under President Trump’s leadership. 
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Thank you, Mike. 
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Mm-hmm.
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Thank you.  Thank you, everybody.  I’m sure you’re very eager to ask questions of these very smart people working very hard on behalf of the president. 
     
    We do have somebody in our new media seat today.  We have John Stoll, who is the head of news at X.  As you all know — you’re all on X — it’s home to hundreds of millions of users, a large contingent of independent journalists and news organizations across geographies and political spectrums.  And at the same time, X remains the go-to platform for many legacy news outlets.  And I know, as I mentioned, many of the reporters in this room use X to attract eyeballs to your work. 
     
    Prior to joining X, John spent two decades in journalism, including several years as an editor at The Wall Street Journal.  We are excited to have him in the briefing room today.
     
    John, we’ll let you kick it off.  And as I said at the top, please direct your question to the individual up here who you’d like an answer from. 
     
    John, why don’t you begin.
     
    Q    All right.  Thank you very much.  I am sitting in for a thriving ecosystem of journalists, independent and — and emerging news organizations who do depend on X for publicity, for a business model.  And so, I look forward to seeing many of them in this seat in months and years to come. 
     
    I also thank you, Karoline, for opening this seat up to new media.  It — it really is a testament not only to your open-mindedness but also to innovation that you’d actually think about, you know, folks that are not traditionally credentialed to be in this room to be in this room and to not only have a question but also to witness — you know, this is at a very important intersection of power and the free press.
     
    And so, just the ability to witness this and — and be part of it, it brings everybody’s game up.  So, thank you for that. 
     
    I think this is for Mike Waltz.  My question is about Ukraine.
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Sure.
     
    Q    For about more than 10 years, I’ve been fascinated, like all — like many, with what’s going on.  I was in Northern Europe working out of the Baltics when Crimea was annexed and was — a lot — a lot of this came on Twitter.  The platform used to be known as Twitter.  Was — a lot of European leaders would — would talk about their disappointment and — and solidarity with Ukraine, but when it came to actually doing something, it felt like they were passing a hot potato and sent it over the Atlantic. 
     
    I wonder how much of what we’re seeing right now out of the administration and President Trump is a call to Europe and the European leaders and allies that we’ve traditionally had to pick up that hot potato and — and start doing something a little bit more concrete to win and preserve the peace in Ukraine. 
     
    The second question I have is — it — it’s related — is there’s been some — a lot of speculation that President Trump and the administration might be manipulated by Pre- — by Vladimir Putin.  I wonder if you can just talk a little bit about the administration’s posture —
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Yeah.
     
    Q    — and your confidence in the competence of this administration to d- — go toe to toe with Vladimir Putin. 
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Well, if there’s an- — I’ll take the l- — second question first.  If there’s anybody in this world that can go toe to toe with Putin, that could go toe to toe with Xi, that could go toe to toe with Kim Jong Un — and we could keep going down the list — it’s Donald J. Trump.  He is the dealmaker in chief.  There is no question that he is the commander in chief. 
     
    And I, for one — and I think all Americans and around the world should have no doubt about his ability to not only handle Putin but to handle the complexity of driving this war to an end. 
     
    And then on your first piece on Europe, I’ll take you back to 2014.  You’re right.  There was a lot of hand-wringing in Europe and not a lot of action.  There was also a lot of hand-wringing here in Washington under the Obama administration and not a lot of action.  They literally threw blankets at the problem. 
     
    And so, I’ll remind everyone that Putin had, you know, some type of conflict, invasion, or issue with their neighbor under President Bush, with Georgia; under President Obama, with Ukraine in 2014; not under President Trump, 45; and again with President Biden in 2022.  The war should have been deterred.  The war should have never happened, and I have no doubt it would not have happened under President Trump and will stop under President — President Trump again. 
     
    But I just want to push back on this notion of our European allies not being consulted as we’ve entered into this process.  I already mentioned the immediate phone call President Trump made to President Zelenskyy.  He has talked to President Macron of France repeatedly last week.  President Macron convened European leaders and then is coming here on Monday.  Prime Minister Starmer is coming next Thursday. 
     
    We’ve also — I’ve talked to every one of my national security — national security advisor counterparts across — across the spectrum in Europe.  I’ve talked to Secretary-General Rutte, the — the leader of NATO, the secretary-general of NATO.  We have repeatedly — oh, by the way, we had half our Cabinet — seven Cabinet officials, including the vice president, at the Munich Security Conference, all engaging, all listening, and all making sure our allies were heard. 
     
    However, we’ve also made it clear for years — decades, even — that it is unacceptable that the United States and the United States taxpayer continues to bear the burden not only of the cost of the war in Ukraine but of the defense of — of Europe.  We fully support our NATO Allies.  We fully support the Article 5 commitment.  But it’s time for our European allies to step up. 
     
    And one of the things that Secretary-General Rutte said on our call was this last couple of weeks have been a real wake-up call.  And I asked him, “What have you been missing the last couple of years?” 
     
    The fact that we are going to enter into a NATO summit this June with a third of our NATO Allies still not meeting the 2 percent minimum, a commitment they made a decade ago — literally a decade ago — with a war on their doorstep — the largest war that they’re all extremely concerned about — but yet it’s “Well, somebody else needs to pay.  We’ve got other domestic priorities.”  It’s unacceptable.  President Trump has made that clear. 
     
    And the minimum needs to be met.  We need to be at 100 percent in — this June at the NATO summit.  And then let’s talk about exceeding it, which what — is what President Trump has been talking about, with 5 percent of GDP. 
     
    Europe needs to step up for their own defense as a partner.  And we can be friends and allies and have those tough conversations. 
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Great.  Peter.
     
    Q    Thank you, Karoline.  I have a Ukraine one and a DOGE one.  Who can talk DOGE?
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Stephen, go ahead.
     
    Q    Well, so — so, Stephen, we’re hearing about these DOGE dividend checks that would be 20 percent back to taxpayers, 20 percent to pay down the debt.  Sixty percent is left.  Who gets that?
     
    MR. MILLER:  Well, the way that it works is when you achieve savings, you can either return it to taxpayers, you can return it to our debtors, or it can be cycled into next year’s budget, and then it just lowers the overall baseline for next year.  So, in other words, you can just transfer it into the next fiscal window and then lower the overall spending level.  And that means that you can achieve a permanent savings that way, and that reduces the deficit. 
     
    Q    And when is it that people might see those checks?
     
    MR. MILLER:  Well, this is all going to be worked on through the reconciliation process with Congress that’s going underway right now, as you’ve seen.  The Senate is moving a bill.  The House is moving a bill.  The president has great confidence in both chambers to deliver on his priorities. 
     
    I would just take this opportunity to note that President Trump has made a historic commitment to the working class of this country to fight for a major tax relief and major price relief.  And cutting spending, as DOGE is doing, and cutting taxes is the key to delivering on both of those promises.  And President Trump is resolutely committed to doing both. 
     
    Q    Thank you.  And on Ukraine.  I guess, this is for Mike.
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Sure. 
     
    Q    After the president’s post on Truth Social yesterday, need to know: Who does he think is more responsible for the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Putin or Zelenskyy?
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Well, look, his — his goal, Peter, is to bring this war to an end, period.  And there has been ongoing fighting on both sides.  It is World War I-style trench warfare. 
     
    His frustration with President Zelenskyy is — that you’ve heard — is multifold.  One, there needs to be a deep appreciation for what the American people, what the American taxpayer, what President Trump did in — in his first term, and what we’ve done since.  So, some of the rhetoric coming out of Kyiv, frankly, and — and insults to President Trump were unacceptable.  Number one. 
     
    Number two, our own secretary of Treasury personally made the trip to offer the Ukrainians what is — can only be described as a historic opportunity — that is for America to coinvest with Ukraine in their minerals, in their resources, to truly grow the pie. 
     
    So, case in point, there’s a foundry that processes aluminum in Ukraine.  It’s — it’s been damaged.  It’s not at its current capacity.  If that is restored, it would account for America’s entire imports of aluminum for an entire year — that one foundry.
     
    There are tremendous resources there.  Not only is that long-term security for Ukraine, not only do we help them grow the pie with investments, but, you know, we do have an obligation to the American taxpayer in helping them recoup the hundreds of billions that ha- — that have occurred. 
     
    So, you know, rather than enter — enter into some constructive conversations about what that deal should be going forward, we got a lot of rhetoric in the media that was — that was incredibly unfortunate. 
     
    And I could just tell you, Peter, you know, as a veteran, as somebody who’s been in combat, this war is horrific.  And I think we’ve lost sight of that, of the literally thousands of people that are dying a day, families that are going without the next generation. 
     
    And I find it kind of, you know, frankly, ridiculous.  So many people in Washington that were just demanding, pounding the table for a ceasefire in Gaza are suddenly aghast that the president would demand one and both sides come to the table when it talks to — when it comes to Ukraine, a war that has been arguably far greater in — in scope and scale and far more dangerous in terms of global escalation to U.S. security.
     
    Q    And I do have one for Karoline.
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Sure.
     
    Q    Does President Trump have a bet with Trudeau about this USA-Canada hockey game tonight?  (Laughter.)  And when there is a big hockey game on, is the president watching for the goals or for the fights?
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  (Laughs.)  Probably both.  I think he’s watching for the United States to win tonight.  I know he talked to the USA hockey team this morning.  He talked to the players after their morning practice, around 10 o’clock.  And I also spoke to some folks from that team after.  They were jubilant over President Trump’s comments to the team.  I believe they’re going to put out a video of that call. 
     
    So, he looks forward to watching the game tonight, and we look forward to the United States beating our soon-to-be 51st state, Canada.  (Laughter.)
     
    Bloomberg, go ahead. 
     
    Q    My question is for Mike Waltz.  Can you give us a readout of Kellogg’s meeting with Zelenskyy that just wrapped up?  And, in particular, Zelenskyy publicly rejected this deal about the rare earth minerals.  Where — where does that stand?
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Well, we’re going to continue to have — he needs to come back to the table, and we’re going to continue to have discussions about where that deal is going. 
     
    Again, we have an obligation to the taxpayer.  I think this is an opportunity.  The president thinks this is an opportunity for Ukraine going forward.  There can be, in my view, nothing better for Ukraine’s future and for their security than — than to have the United States invested in their prosperity long-term.  And then a key piece of this has also been security guarantees. 
     
    Look, the — the reality that we’re talking about here is: Is it in Ukraine’s interest?  Is it in Europe’s interest?  It certainly isn’t in Russia’s interest or in the American people’s interest for this war to grind on forever and ever and ever. 
     
    So, a key part of his conversation was helping President Zelenskyy understand this war needs to come to an end.  This kind of open-ended mantra that we’ve had under the Biden administration, that’s over.  And I think a lot of people are having a hard time accepting that.
     
    And then the other piece is there’s been discussions from Prime Minister Starmer and also President Macron about European-led security guarantees.  We welcome that.  We’ve been asking Europe to step up and secure its own prosperity, safety, and security.  So, we certainly welcome that. 
     
    And we certainly welcome more European assistance.  As I told my counterparts, “Come to the table with more, if — if you want a bigger seat at the table.”  And we’ve been asking for that for quite some time. 
     
    Q    And has Russia pushed for sanctions in your talks with them?  And have you consulted with international partners and allies about potentially rolling back sanctions in these negotiations to end the war?
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Those — the talks with — with our Russian counterparts — both with my counterpart, the national security advisor; Secretary Rubio’s counterpart, the Foreign Minister, Foreign Minister Lavrov — you know, it — it really were — was quite broad, focused on what is the goals for our broader relationship, but very clear that the fighting has to stop to get to any of those brighter goals. 
     
    And as a first step, we’re just going to do some commonsense things, like restore the — the ability of both of our embassies to function. 
     
    And, again, you know, this is — this was common sense.  In — in foreign policy world, they call it “shuttle diplomacy.”  We have to talk to both sides in order to get to both sides to the table, and both sides have said only President Trump could do that. 
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Diana.
     
    Q    Thank you.  And my question is for Mike Waltz.  (Laughter.)
     
    MR. WALTZ:  All right.
     
    Q    The president has called Zelenskyy a dictator.  Does he view Putin as a dictator? 
     
    And does he want Zelenskyy out of power?  I know he’s called for elections. 
     
    And then, thirdly, the head of the Defense Committee in Ukraine’s parliament just has claimed that the U.S. has stopped selling weapons to Ukraine.  Is that true?
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Well, most of our weapons that have gone to Ukraine have been part of a drawdown authority, where we’ve literally taken them out of our stocks and then, eventually, through appropriations, started buying them again to refill our stocks. 
     
    I’ll, you know, just state that there has been a lag in a lot of that process.  So, many of our stocks, as we look at our operations around the world, are becoming more depleted.  That’s one of the reasons many people have had a lot of concern about: When does this end?  How much is it going to take?  How many lives will be lost?  How much will we be — how much will we spend? 
     
    As a member of Congress, we repeatedly asked the Biden administration those questions, and we never got a satisfactory answer. 
     
    Look, President Trump is obviously very frustrated right now with President Zelenskyy — the fact that — that he hasn’t come to the table, that he hasn’t been willing to take this opportunity that we have offered.  I think he eventually will get to that point, and I hope so very quickly.
     
    But President Trump is — as we made clear to our Russian counterparts, and I want to make clear today — he’s focused on stopping the fighting and moving forward.  And we could argue all day long about what’s happened in the past. 
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Reagan.
     
    Q    Thanks.  I have a question for Stephen —
     
    (Cross-talk.)
     
    Q    — and a question for Mike.
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Excuse me, I just called on Reagan.  Reagan, go ahead. 
     
    Q    I have a question for Stephen and a question for Mike. 
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Sure.
     
    Q    Stephen, I can start with you.  There have been reports —
     
    MR. MILLER:  Thank you.
     
    Q    — that Trump is unhappy with the rate of deportations and he wants them to be higher.  Is the president happy with the rate of deportations, and are there any plans to speed up the process?
     
    MR. MILLER:  Well, first of all, we all appreciate the encouragement from the media to deport as many illegal aliens as humanly possible.  So, thank you. 
     
    And I will promise you that the full might of the Department of Homeland Security, the Department of Justice, the Department of Defense, and every element and instrument of national power will be used to remove, with speed, all criminal illegals from the soil of the United States of America, to enforce final removal orders, and to ensure that this country is for American citizens and those who legally belong in this country.
     
    We inherited an ICE that was completely shuttered.  We inherited a Department of Homeland Security whose sole mission was to resettle illegal aliens within the United States of America. 
     
    In 30 days, the president sealed the border shut, declared the cartels to be terrorist organizations, has increased ICE deportations to levels not seen in decades, and we are shortly on the verge of achieving a pace and speed of deportations this country has never before seen. 
     
    Thank you. 
     
    Q    And Mike.
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Mm-hmm.
     
    Q    There have been reports that there’s some underground opposition to Trump’s pick for Undersecretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby.  Have you or anyone from the administration been personally lobbying senators to support Elbridge Colby? 
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Look, I’ve worked with Bridge Co- — Colby in the past.  He has the president’s full support to be the Undersecretary of policy, which will be a critical policy arm for Secretary Hegseth going forward that will implement a lot of these policies. 
     
    And — and really, that’s — that’s been the extent of it.  I think there’s been a lot of kind of, you know, breathless — I don’t know — back-and-forth in the — in the press, but we’re full speed ahead to get the president’s team in place so we can implement his America First policy. 
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Thank you.  Mike has spoken pretty extensively.  Does anybody have questions for Stephen or for Mr. Hassett?
     
    Q    I do.
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Nobody wants to talk about the economy?  (Laughter.)
     
    (Cross-talk.)
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Sure. 
     
    Q    IRS.
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  IRS.  Okay.  Go ahead.
     
    Q    And this would be for either one of you.  So, we have reported, several other outlets have reported that about 3,500 people are due to be — lose their jobs at the IRS by the end of the week.  If the goal of these spending cuts across the federal government has been to reduce the debt, why impose some of the deepest cuts we’ve seen so far at the agency responsible for raising revenue for the federal government?
     
    MR. HASSETT:  Well, I think our objective is to make sure that the employees that we pay are being productive and effective.  And there are many, many — more than 100,000 people working to collect taxes, and not all of them are fully occupied.  And the Treasury secretary is studying the matter and feels like 3,500 is a small number and probably can get bigger, especially as we improve the IT at the IRS.
     
    And so — so, I think that it’s absolutely something that is on the table for good reasons.  And the point is that — don’t just talk about the IRS.  Talk about all of government, that there are so many places — I live in D.C.; you maybe live in D.C. — where you never — there — nobody — nobody is going into the buildings.  People aren’t commuting because nobody is doing their job.  We look back and we see that there are all these people doing two jobs while they’re getting a government payroll — on the payroll. 
     
    So, the point is, we’re fixing that, and the IRS is a small part of that picture. 
     
    Q    So, you’re saying that everybody who’s being let go was doing a bad job?
    MR. HASSETT:  I’m saying that we’re studying every agency and deciding who to let go and why, and we’re doing so very rationally with a lot of support from analysis. 
     
    Q    Because we’re being told by a lot of people who have been let go at other agencies that they were told they were being dismissed because of poor performance, when, in some cases, they haven’t even had a performance review yet because they’ve only been on the job a couple of months. 
     
    MR. HASSETT:  Yeah, I’ve never seen a person who was laid off for poor performance say that they were performing poorly.  (Laughter.)  Okay?
    Q    Karoline.
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Good point.  Sure, Kaitlan.
     
    Q    I have a question.  I’ll start with you, Kevin Hassett.  Thank you for being here.  And then I’ve got a question for Mr. Waltz.
     
    On these potential checks that you might send out from DOGE, is there a concern, as you’re thinking through this, that they could be inflationary?
     
    MR. HASSETT:  Oh, absolutely not, because imagine if we don’t spend government money and we give it back to people, then the — you know, if they spend it all, then you’re even.  But they’re probably going to save a lot of it, in which case, you’re reducing inflation. 
     
    Q    Okay.  So, you’re not —
     
    MR. HASSETT:  And also, when the government spends a lot, that’s what creates inflation.  We learned that from Joe Biden.  And so, if we reduce government spending, then that’s — you know, reduces inflation.  And if you give people money, then they’re going to save a bunch of it.  And — and when they save it, then that also reduces demand and reduces inflation. 
     
    Q    Okay.  So, you’re not worried about it. 
     
    MR. HASSETT:  No, I’m not.
     
    Q    And, Mr. Waltz, to follow up on Peter’s question, you wrote in an op-ed in the fall of 2023 that, quote, “Putin is to blame, certainly, like al Qaeda was to blame for 9/11.”
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Mm-hmm.
     
    Q    Do you still feel that way now, or do you share the president’s assessment, as he says Ukraine is to blame for the start of this war?
     
    MR. WALTZ:  Well, it shouldn’t surprise you that I share the president’s assessment on all kinds of issues.  What I wrote as a Member of Congress is — was as a former Member of Congress. 
     
    Look, what I share the president’s assessment on is that the war has to end.  And what comes with that?  What comes with that should be, at some point, elections.  What comes with that should be peace.  What comes with that is prosperity that we’ve just offered in this natural resources and economic partnership arrangement: an end to the killing and European security and security for the world.  The President is not only determined to do that in Europe, he’s determined to do it in the Middle East. 
     
    And just a few months ago, we had an administration that had tried for 15 months, week after week, sitting with you here, and couldn’t get us to a ceasefire, couldn’t get our hostages out.  Now we’re at that point.  We’re back to the maximum pressure on Iran.
     
    And we will — we have just begun, and we will drive towards a ceasefire and all of those other steps.  I’m not going to pre-negotiate or get ahead of the sequencing of all of that.  It’s a very delicate situation. 
     
    But this is a president of peace.  And who here would argue against peace?
     
    Q    Okay.  So, you do share that assessment. 
     
    And can I follow up.  In 2017 —
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  No.  Go ahead, Jordan.
     
    Q    — then-President Trump —
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Go ahead, Jordan. 
     
    Q    Can I just follow up really quickly?
     
    Q    Thank you.  So —
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  You just had two questions, Kaitlan.
     
    Q    May I — can I just —
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Jordan, go ahead. 
     
    Q    Mr. — Mr. Hassett —
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Thank you.
     
    Q    I have an important follow-up for Mike Waltz.
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Jordan, go ahead.  Go ahead.
     
    Q    So, Mr. Hassett, you were speaking about tariff revenue, and you also addressed a question about the R- — IRS.  President Trump has spoken about replacing income tax with tariff revenue, especially with all this waste, fraud, and abuse that we’re seeing cut.  Is that a possibility?
     
    MR. HASSETT:  Absolutely.  And, in fact, if you think about the China tariff revenue that we’re estimating is coming in from the 10 percent that we just added, plus the de minimis thing, that it’s between $500 billion and a trillion dollars over 10 years, is our estimate.  And that’s something that is outside of the reductions that markets are seeing through the negotiations up on the Hill.
     
    And so, we expect that the tariff revenue is actually going to make it much easier for Republicans to pass a bill, and that was the President’s plan all along. 
     
    Thank you.
     
    Q    And I — I have a question for Stephen Miller about DOGE.  So, you — you spoke about DOGE.  You said roughly $50 billion is set to be cut in a year of waste, fraud, and abuse by unelected bureaucrats.  We’re hearing this ironic narrative from the President’s critics and the left-wing media that Elon Musk is an unelected bureaucrat, and he’s doing all this terrible stuff.  Isn’t one of DOGE’s objectives to get — get rid of the federal bureaucracy, the — the deep state?  And also, who was running the White House when Joe Biden was in office —
     
    MR. MILLER:  (Laughs.)
     
    Q    — because I don’t know a single person who believes it was Joe Biden? 
     
    MR. MILLER:  Yes.  You’re — you’re tempting me to say — (laughs) — some very harsh things about some of our media friends.  The — yes, it is true that many of the people in this room, for four years, failed to cover the fact that Joe Biden was mentally incompetent and was not running the country. 
     
    It is also true that many people in this room who have used this talking point that Elon is not elected fail to understand how government works.  So, I’m glad for the opportunity for a brief civics lesson. 
     
    A president is elected by the whole American people.  He’s the only official in the entire government that is elected by the entire nation.  Right?  Judges are appointed.  Members of Congress are elected at the district or state level.  Just one man. 
     
    And the Constitution, Article Two, has a clause, known as the vesting clause, and it says, “The executive power shall be vested in a president,” singular.  The whole will of democracy is imbued into the elected president.  That president then appoints staff to then impose that democratic will onto the government. 
     
    The threat to democracy — indeed, the existential threat to democracy — is the unelected bureaucracy of lifetime, tenured civil servants who believe they answer to no one, who believe they can do whatever they want without consequence, who believe they can set their own agenda no matter what Americans vote for. 
     
    So, Americans vote for radical FBI reform, and FBI agents say they don’t want to change.  Or Americans vote for radical reform in our energy policies, but EPA bureaucrats say they don’t want to change.  Or Americans vote to end DEI — racist DEI policies, and lawyers in the Department of Justice say they don’t want to change. 
     
    What President Trump is doing is he is removing federal bureaucrats who are defying democracy by failing to implement his lawful orders, which are the will of the whole American people. 
     
    Thank you. 
     
    Q    Thanks, Stephen.  Can I follow up?
     
    Q    Karoline.
     
    MS. LEAVITT:  Thank you very much, everybody.  I’m looking at the clock.  We’ve almost had an hour of time. 
     
    (Cross-talk.)

    LEAVITT:  I know a couple of these individuals have a meeting to get to at 2:00 p.m.  So, you’re welcome to follow up with my team for further questions.  We’re going to let these guys get back to running the United States government.
     
    And we will see you all later.  President Trump will be speaking at 3 o’clock at the Black History Month reception.
     
    So, thank you.  It’s good to see you.  We’ll see you in a bit.  Thanks.
     
    Q    Are you going to the Black History Month reception, Mr. Miller?
     
    Q    Stephen, on the fraud.  Should we expect indictments?
     
    Q    What is your reaction to Mitch McConnell’s retirement?
     
    Q    Are there indictments coming for all the fraud we’ve found?
     
         MR. MILLER:  I’d love to follow up with you.  Just set up a time with Karoline.
     
         Q    Okay.  Thank you. 
     
    END                   1:56 P.M. EST

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: Kugler, Navigating Inflation Waves: A Phillips Curve Perspective

    Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

    Thank you, Tom, and thank you for the invitation to give the Whittington Lecture.1 It is humbling to be here giving this lecture to honor the memory and legacy of Leslie Whittington. While I did not cross paths with Leslie here at Georgetown University, when I arrived, I heard so many stories about her contributions to the school, the university, and the students. She worked on research about the effects of economic policies on children and families, so I know that if I had had the good fortune to overlap with her as a colleague, I would have benefited greatly from her work and presence. It is also an honor to be giving this lecture, because so many dynamic leaders have previously stood before you, including some who have been inspirations to me in my career, such as Alice Rivlin and Cecilia Rouse.
    Today I will be discussing a topic that has certainly captured the attention of central bankers, and the public at large, in recent years: inflation and the relationship between inflation and unemployment. But before I talk about a lens through which to think about the inflation experienced in the pandemic period, I want to update you with my views on the current outlook for the U.S. economy and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) efforts to sustainably return inflation to our 2 percent objective while maintaining a strong labor market.
    Economic OutlookThe overall picture is that the U.S. economy remains on a firm footing, with output growing at a solid pace. Real gross domestic product grew 2.5 percent in 2024. Consumer spending continued to drive this solid pace last year. While retail sales posted a decline last month, January data are often difficult to interpret. Bad weather and seasonal adjustment difficulties may have affected the release, and it should be noted the slowdown came after a strong pace of sales in the second half of last year. That said, as usual, I pay attention to many indicators to gauge the state of the economy. Employment readings show that the labor market is healthy and stable. Payroll job gains have been solid recently, averaging 189,000 per month over the past four months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). After touching 4.2 percent as recently as November, the unemployment rate has flattened to 4 percent since then, consistent with a labor market that is neither weakening nor showing signs of overheating.
    Inflation has fallen significantly since its peak in the middle of 2022, though the path continues to be bumpy and inflation remains somewhat elevated. Readings last week from the BLS showed price pressures persisted in the economy in January. Our preferred inflation gauge at the Fed, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, will be released next week. Based on the consumer price index and producer price index data for January, it is estimated that the PCE index advanced about 2.4 percent on a 12-month basis in January. Excluding food and energy costs, core prices are estimated to have risen 2.6 percent. Those readings show there is still some way to go before achieving the FOMC’s 2 percent objective.
    Regarding monetary policy, the FOMC judged in September that it was time to begin reducing our policy interest rate from levels that were strongly restrictive on aggregate demand and putting downward pressure on inflation. We reduced that rate 100 basis points through December, leaving our policy rate at moderately restrictive levels. At our latest meeting in January, I supported the decision to hold the policy rate steady. I see this as appropriate, given that the downward risks to employment have diminished but upside risks to inflation remain. The potential net effect of new economic policies also remains highly uncertain and will depend on the breadth, duration, reactions to, and, importantly, specifics of the measures adopted.
    Going forward, in considering the appropriate federal funds rate, we will watch these developments closely and continue to carefully assess the incoming data and evolving outlook.
    Now, turning back to the main topic of my speech, I will start with the core mission of the Federal Reserve: to pursue the dual mandate, given to us by Congress, of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. We saw firsthand during the pandemic period why the price-stability portion of the mandate is so important. High inflation imposes significant hardship and erodes Americans’ purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing, and transportation. As a policymaker and economist, I think it is vitally important to have a good understanding of inflation dynamics and how those dynamics may have evolved over time. This knowledge allows me to pursue the best policies to deliver stable prices while maintaining a solid labor market.
    Waves of InflationFive years after the pandemic took hold suddenly and with little warning, there is a tendency to remember the inflation buildup as a fast and uniform phenomenon. But that was not the case. Inflation stemming from the pandemic shock came in waves. Today I will first describe the different waves of inflation experienced in the pandemic period. Then I invite you aboard the sailboat that we will use to navigate those waves: You could call it the SS Phillips Curve. The Phillips curve is a model that has been used for a long time to try to explain inflation dynamics and the tradeoffs between inflation and unemployment. Finally, I will discuss with you how this voyage may have changed the charts for policymakers.
    Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the U.S., and much of the world’s developed economies, experienced a prolonged period of low inflation. Then, when the economy broadly shut down in March and April 2020, the U.S. experienced a brief period of deflation. But by the middle of that year, we saw that the first of several waves of inflation began hitting the economy’s shores.
    The first notable wave of inflation came from food prices. With many restaurants closed and people fearful of gathering, consumers pivoted their spending to grocery stores and online grocery delivery to meet their families’ needs, with some stockpiling essential items because they feared future shortages. This jump in demand was met with snarled supply chains for food processing and groceries. Annual food inflation reached a first peak of 5 percent in June 2020. There was a second food inflation wave with the onset of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the middle of 2022. Beyond the cost alone, grocery prices are an important determinant of inflation expectations for consumers since food is purchased so frequently.2 Another wave of inflation came from goods other than food and energy—what economists call “core goods.” In the years immediately before the pandemic, goods prices were not a significant source of inflation. During the expansion from 2009 until 2020, core goods inflation declined 0.5 percent annually on average. However, once the pandemic took hold, consumer demand rotated from services to goods. At the same time, additional supply chain issues arose, including closed factories and disrupted ports. As consumption rapidly shifted toward goods, their prices rose sharply.3 Core goods inflation picked up markedly in the spring of 2021 and reached a peak of 7.6 percent on a 12-month basis in February 2022. This was a notable development because, during most of this century, goods price deflation offset price increases in other categories and thus kept a lid on overall inflation.
    A third wave of inflation came from services costs, excluding housing. Near the start of the pandemic, millions of Americans lost their jobs, and many left the labor market, with some retiring and others fearful of being exposed to the virus. When the economy began to reopen from shutdowns, demand for workers rose faster than the supply. As a result, the labor market quickly became very tight. To attract workers, employers raised wages. And to offset that expense, many raised prices. Given that labor is the most important input into the production of services, core services inflation ensued, reaching a peak of 5.2 percent on a 12-month basis in December 2021. Core services inflation stayed persistently high until it began to turn down in February 2023.
    The final wave of inflation I will discuss came from PCE housing services inflation. During the pandemic, many Americans reassessed housing choices, including those who preferred to move to detached homes in the suburbs from multifamily dwellings in cities. The supply of housing has long been constrained, so when a further increase in demand met limited supply, prices rose. Housing inflation rose to a peak of 8.27 percent on a 12-month basis in April 2023 and has moved lower since then. The run-up in housing inflation came more slowly, but it is also the component most slowly to abate. This is an area that experienced catch-up inflation, as housing inflation rises and falls slowly because rents are reset infrequently, usually only once a year for most renters.
    For the remainder of this discussion, I will focus on core inflation, and specifically core goods and core services inflation. My objective is to discuss several additions to an augmented Phillips curve model that allow us to capture the dynamics of those waves we encountered on our journey.
    The Traditional Phillips CurveSince price stability and maximum employment are the two components of the Fed’s dual-mandate goal, it is important for policymakers to be able to interpret the inflation process and relate it to macroeconomic conditions, including unemployment. One traditional way of understanding the usual tradeoff between inflation and unemployment is the use of the Phillips curve. It was first employed by New Zealand economist A.W. Phillips in 1958 to describe a simple relationship between wage growth and unemployment. Basically, it demonstrates that wage inflation is lower when unemployment is high, and higher when unemployment is low. Since then, several variants and updates have been offered to the Phillips curve model, and I will offer updates, too.
    One of the most notable updates came from Milton Friedman in 1967 in his presidential address to the American Economic Association.4 In that speech, he argued that there is only a temporary tradeoff between inflation and unemployment, because inflation depends on both the unemployment rate relative to a natural rate (the unemployment gap) and expectations of future inflation.
    The unemployment gap measures how much unemployment is above or below some reference level such as the natural rate of unemployment, or NAIRU (non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment), which is thought to be the normal level of unemployment absent cyclical forces. An unemployment rate that is above the reference level indicates that there is slack in the economy. Conversely, if the unemployment rate is below the reference level, the economy is tight. The unemployment gap has an inverse relation to wage and price inflation, because slack in the economy means that there are excess resources to meet demand while tightness in the labor market means there is little room to expand demand without putting upward pressure on prices. Let’s turn now to the other ingredient in Friedman’s Phillips curve: inflation expectations. Inflation expectations represent the rate at which people expect prices to rise in the future. A Phillips curve model that includes inflation expectations is called an “expectations-augmented Phillips curve.”
    The idea behind adding inflation expectations to a Phillips curve is that workers care about their inflation-adjusted wage, rather than nominal wages, over the course of a period of employment when bargaining their pay. Meanwhile, price-setting firms care about their relative price in pricing their products. Both sets of agents must forecast as best as possible the future path of inflation to efficiently bargain their wages or set their prices. In other words, both parties form expectations about the general price level, and these expectations will feed back into the inflation process.5 Friedman assumed that inflation expectations respond to lagged observed inflation—or what are called “adaptive expectations”—and when that is so, it provides a mechanism for inflation to be persistent.
    This view captured inflation dynamics in the 1970s and early 1980s fairly well; however, it was not broadly applicable to the period from the late 1980s through 2019, often called the “Great Moderation.” Rather, regarding inflation dynamics over an extended period, inflation appears to be more strongly related to long-run inflation expectations than to lagged inflation or short-run inflation expectations measures. Monetary policy can play an important role in setting long-run inflation expectations. Both wage seekers and price setters form their inflation expectations, in part, from their beliefs about the central bank’s inflation goal. When long-run inflation expectations stay close to the central bank’s goal, we say that inflation expectations are anchored at that goal. That goal is currently set at 2 percent, and long-run inflation expectations have indeed been in a tight range around that target.6
    The empirical literature on the Phillips curve has considered additional variables that may affect inflation and used those variables to create new versions of a Phillips curve. For example, Phillips curves have long included measures of “cost-push” pressures such as core import prices. These cost pressures more fully capture shocks to firms’ costs coming from global price pressures and not captured by other measures of slack. Other Phillips curves also include lags of inflation to capture persistence in the inflation process.7
    To summarize, the empirical literature has come to the conclusion that inflation dynamics can best be captured by a Phillips curve that includes lags of inflation, long-run inflation expectations, and a measure of slack, as well as import and energy prices as cost-push shocks. An instance of that formulation of a Phillips curve is included in former Chair Janet Yellen’s speech from 2015.8 Next, I would like to assess the accuracy of this baseline model during the recent run-up of inflation and consider how to augment the Phillips curve model with some new variables that may be able to capture some of the shocks experienced during the pandemic and post-pandemic period. A large literature has emerged on how to interpret the recent run-up in inflation, and more research is needed to fully understand this complicated episode. The Phillips curve model that I will use is another approach to consider. This is a simple approach, but it is possible to consider more complex models, such as models that consider the joint dynamics of inflation and other variables or models that explicitly consider nonlinearities.9 However, I still see value in starting from this simple framework, seeing what it can and cannot explain about pandemic inflation, and then seeing whether the addition of certain variables can help the model more fully account for inflation during the pandemic.
    Estimation of the Phillips Curve TodayAs I just explained, the Phillips curve model allows flexibility in the choice of variables, but economists employing the model must decide how to weight these variables. And those weights must be chosen in some way. Economists choose weights by examining available data and deciding which capture the inflation process in the best possible way. This decision is called “estimation.” The modern way to undertake such an estimation is called “training.” Economists train a model on a specific set of data and consider different cuts of the data set to determine different ways to compute those weights.
    I will consider quarterly data that have been consistently produced since 1964, allowing us to include the periods of the Great Inflation, the Great Moderation, and the most recent inflation run-up. We could use this entire data set to train the model. However, subsample analysis also serves to prove some valuable points.
    First Result: Examining the Great ModerationLet’s start by updating former Fed Chair Yellen’s results. She estimated the model using the data during the so-called Great Moderation; I will update her results by training the model through 2019, the last year before the COVID-19 pandemic took hold in the U.S. As the term “moderation” implies, this was a period in which both inflation and output became much less volatile. We do not know exactly what brought about the Great Moderation. Hypotheses include the effects of better inventory management or better monetary policy. We do know, however, that inflation settled into a trend near to or slightly below 2 percent during that period. We estimate the model with data from this period, and we decompose how much of inflation is explained by the variables and how much is left unexplained, which economists call the “residual.” As it turns out, this model does a good job of capturing the inflation process over that period before the pandemic, and my results are similar to Yellen’s. The model explains 70 percent of the variation in inflation, meaning that only 30 percent of the variation in inflation is attributed to unexplained residuals. An alternative way to understand the unexplained part is as the standard deviation of the residual or the unexplained portion of the model, which was 0.50 percentage point for the period from 2010 to 2019, compared with the standard deviation of inflation of about 0.8 percentage point.
    This model, however, struggles to explain the run-up in inflation in the years immediately after the pandemic took hold. The unexplained portion of inflation, the residual, rises dramatically in 2021 and 2022. In 2021, the unexplained portion is almost 2 percentage points, and the following year, it is about 1.5 percentage points. Perhaps we should not be surprised by the outcome. These years saw inflation reach a four-decade peak, but the model has been trained on a Great Moderation sample that saw relatively quiet inflation.10
    Second Result: Using a Longer SampleThe results are more encouraging if, instead, we also include data from the previous period of significant inflation and train the model on data starting in 1964. Intuitively, it makes sense that including a period with persistent inflation, like the 1970s, might help us better understand another inflationary episode. I stop at 2019 because I want to see if training on data from the previous 55-year period can explain the post-2020 inflation.
    The model captures more of the most recent run-up in inflation when using the longer period of analysis. The unexplained residual drops to about 1.5 percentage points in 2021 and to a bit above 0.5 percentage point in 2022. Allowing for greater persistence in inflation allows an inflation equation to fit the pandemic period better, though it does not settle the question of whether the pandemic inflation was caused by large and persistent shocks or by large shocks and a persistent inflation process—for example, because of greater feedback between wages and prices.
    To improve the model further, it would be useful to include additional explanatory variables that could better capture the overheating of the economy. In what follows, I include variables that might account for factors experienced in the most recent bout of inflation, such as a very tight labor market and supply chain snarls.
    Third Result: Alternative Measure of SlackAs I mentioned before, the very tight labor market was an important contributor to inflation in recent years, especially to services inflation, yet the weight on the unemployment gap in the Phillips curve for the more recent period is very small. This measure of slack has become less and less important over time in explaining inflation, except during selected episodes such as in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, which was characterized by a very sluggish recovery. Outside of that episode, and very few others, the Phillips curve places little weight on that measure of slack in explaining inflation over the Great Moderation, including during the recent run-up. This is also a reflection of training the model over the Great Moderation, in which inflation moved fairly tightly around a very flat trend. Notice that this would suggest a “flat Phillips curve” or a big penalty in terms of unemployment needed to reduce inflation. Instead, I focus on another very promising alternative measure that I have paid a lot of attention to since I was chief economist at the Department of Labor—and again since I joined the Board of Governors—and that I am very familiar with as a scholar of labor markets. The measure is the ratio of vacancies to the level of unemployment.11 In effect, this ratio measures how much competition there is for a given job, or the “tightness” of the labor market. Labor is an important input into most production processes, and, thus, tightness in the labor market is closely related to price pressures. I use the standard version of this ratio that measures job openings from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey as the numerator and the unemployment level from the Current Population Survey as the denominator. This allows me to use data back to the 1960s.12 The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio as a measure of slack is more effective at explaining inflation than the unemployment gap. This represents an interesting result because it offers a larger role to heated labor markets in explaining the run-up in inflation. My results echo research that finds the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is a helpful measure of slack to consider in out-of-sample forecasting exercises.13
    Fourth Result: Supply Chain SnarlsAlthough the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio offers a promising measure of slack and supply chain pressures due to labor shortages, that measure does not necessarily capture supply chain snarls whose roots lie outside of the labor market. As I mentioned earlier, there were substantial supply chain disruptions during the past few years that came at the same time as strong demand. That resulted in material and labor shortages. Attempts at quantifying supply-side disruptions have been around for some decades now.14 I rely on a new monthly shortages index created by a team of Fed Board economists, which relies on textual analysis to scan news articles for sentences that include the word pairs “labor shortages,” “material shortages,” or “food shortages.”15 The Shortage Index allows us to better measure cost-push pressures from different sources and is constructed all the way back to the beginning of the previous century. Thus, it makes a difference to have access to advances in natural language processing.16 When I add the Shortage Index to the baseline Phillips curve or to the vacancy-to-unemployment–based Phillips curve, I obtain that the Shortage Index explains an even larger portion of the inflation run-up during and after the pandemic. The residual for 2020 is cut in half, the residual for 2021 is about 1 percentage point, and the residual is effectively eliminated in 2022. I judge this a noteworthy result and a proof of concept that with additional augmentation, the Phillips curve model can better capture inflation dynamics during the recent period. Through the lens of this model, supply shortages played an important role in 2022 in constraining output to grow at an anemic rate and in pushing up inflation. Moreover, the model is also able to capture the decline in inflation in 2023 and 2024 despite the strong expansion in real activity. I view the Shortage Index as a powerful indicator of the nonlinear effects stemming from a compounding of the contemporaneous interaction of demand and supply bottlenecks.
    I have offered additional variables to account for a measure of slack as it relates to labor supply and material supply. This exercise could be extended further to better account for some of the subcategories of inflation that caused the waves I discussed earlier. For example, food inflation, which is characterized by two distinct waves, can mostly be explained by the Food Shortage Index, which captures a large portion of the residual in the baseline model.
    Lessons for the PolicymakerToday I have discussed the waves of inflation the country faced starting five years ago. I also talked about how the vessel we use to navigate those choppy waters can be improved upon. As I conclude, I want to discuss with you how central bankers might recalibrate their compasses, based on what we learned from considering these augmentations to Phillips curve models. I think a clear lesson is that no single model alone can give a policymaker an understanding of every possible state of the economy. Policymakers must be open to various options, models, and frameworks—and not be afraid to experiment in search of more accurate answers. Policymakers must be very attentive to the most recent contributions from academia and empirical practitioners. Broadly, that is the approach I take, and why I apply the same rigor I did as an academic researcher to the monetary policy decisions that I confront.
    The recent run-up in inflation in many ways was a rather unique period, spurred, at least initially, by the first onset of a global pandemic in more than a century. Fully understanding the dynamics at play has provided a tough test for economists. The models I described today have had some success in capturing salient features of the inflation process during the pandemic period. I hope this illustrative analysis helps you see the difficulties of forecasting inflation in real time.
    Another lesson to be learned from this experience is that the feared harsh tradeoff between unemployment and inflation, one that requires large costs in terms of job loss and reduction in incomes in order to reduce inflation, did not materialize in the years immediately after the 2022 inflation peak. Inflation has been significantly reduced while the labor market has remained solid. This is a historically unusual, but most welcome, outcome. While this outcome is in part due to the actions of Fed policymakers, it is also possible to explain that remarkable result through the lens of the models that I have presented today. A large fraction of the rise in inflation, most specifically core goods inflation, can be explained by supply chain snarls. The untangling of supply chains contributed to a decline in inflation with little cost in terms of unemployment. Likewise, labor markets were very tight in this period. As workers returned to the labor force, labor markets became less tight, and the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio declined. That corresponded with a subsequent decline in inflation. That is a consistent result because services inflation is closely connected to the cost of labor.
    Thank you for your time today. Once again, it is humbling to be asked to give the Whittington Lecture to honor the memory of fellow educator Leslie Whittington. I look forward to your questions.

    1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text
    2. D’Acunto, Malmendier, Ospina, and Weber (2021) show that consumers disproportionately rely on the price changes of goods in their grocery bundles when forming expectations about aggregate inflation; see Francesco D’Acunto, Ulrike Malmendier, Juan Ospina, and Michael Weber (2021), “Exposure to Grocery Prices and Inflation Expectations,” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 129 (May), pp. 1615–39. Return to text
    3. Ferrante, Graves, and Iacoviello (2020) show that a sharp reallocation of demand from one sector to another can exacerbate supply chain disruption and cause aggregate inflation; see Francesco Ferrante, Sebastian Graves, and Matteo Iacoviello (2023), “The Inflationary Effects of Sectoral Reallocation,” Journal of Monetary Economics, supp., vol. 140 (November), pp. S64–81. Return to text
    4. See Milton Friedman (1968), “The Role of Monetary Policy,” American Economic Review, vol. 58 (March), pp. 1–17; and Edmund S. Phelps (1967), “Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment over Time,” Economica, vol. 34 (135), pp. 254–81. Return to text
    5. Friedman did not consider forward-looking price-setting firms, but more recent advances in macroeconomics do, such as New Keynesian models; see Jordi Galí (2015), Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework and Its Applications (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press). Return to text
    6. In an earlier speech, I have sketched a model in which agents infer the central bank target by observing inflation, interest rates, and unemployment data; see Adriana D. Kugler (2024), “Central Bank Independence and the Conduct of Monetary Policy,” speech delivered at the Albert Hirschman Lecture, 2024 Annual Meeting of the Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association and the Latin American and Caribbean Chapter of the Econometric Society, Montevideo, Uruguay, November 14. Return to text
    7. For a review of Phillips curve formulations, see Robert J. Gordon (2018), “Friedman and Phelps on the Phillips Curve Viewed from a Half Century’s Perspective,” Review of Keynesian Economics, vol. 6 (4), pp. 425–36. Return to text
    8. The model that I will use is similar to the one described by Janet Yellen in her famous speech at the University of Massachusetts in 2015; see Janet L. Yellen (2015), “Inflation Dynamics and Monetary Policy,” speech delivered at the Philip Gamble Memorial Lecture, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, September 24. Return to text
    9. See Pierpaolo Benigno and Gauti B. Eggertsson (2023), “It’s Baaack: The Surge in Inflation in the 2020s and the Return of the Non-Linear Phillips Curve,” NBER Working Paper Series 31197 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, April). Return to text
    10. The results that I obtain for the 1990–2019 period are similar to those that Yellen reports for the 1990–2014 period. Return to text
    11. The ratio of job openings to unemployment has attracted the attention of many researchers. See, for instance, Olivier J. Blanchard and Ben S. Bernanke (2023), “What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?” NBER Working Paper Series 31417 (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, June). Return to text
    12. Although job openings from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) go back only as far as the early 2000s, I use here the extended series from Barnichon that pieces together JOLTS data for the more recent period with a corrected version of the help-wanted index originally from the Conference Board for the period before 2001. See Regis Barnichon (2010), “Building a Composite Help-Wanted Index,” Economics Letters, vol. 109 (December), pp. 175–78. Return to text
    13. See Regis Barnichon and Adam Shapiro (2022), “What’s the Best Measure of Economic Slack?” FRBSF Economic Letter 2022-04 (San Francisco: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, February); and Régis Barnichon and Adam Hale Shapiro (2024), “Phillips Meets Beveridge,” Journal of Monetary Economics, supp., vol. 148 (November), 103660. Return to text
    14. The Institute for Supply Management’s Supplier Deliveries Index has been around since the 1950s, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index since 1998, and the Census Bureau’s Quarterly Survey of Plant Capacity Utilization since 2008. Return to text
    15. See Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, and David Yu (2024), “Measuring Shortages since 1900,” working paper. Their index is available at https://www.matteoiacoviello.com/shortages.html. Return to text
    16. Other authors have used natural language processing in an attempt to produce a measure of shortages. For instance, see Paul E. Soto (2023), “Measurement and Effects of Supply Chain Bottlenecks Using Natural Language Processing,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 6). Blanchard and Bernanke use Google searches for the word “shortage” as an indicator of sectoral supply constraints in a Phillips curve equation; see Blanchard and Bernanke, “What Caused the US Pandemic-Era Inflation?” in note 11. For an early-attempt, hand-coded shortage index, see Owen Lamont (1997), “Do ‘Shortages’ Cause Inflation?” in Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer, eds., Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press), pp. 281–306. Return to text

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Signs of ‘Historic Progress’ towards Peace Emerge, Central African Republic’s Delegate Tells Security Council, Requesting Donor Support for 2025 Elections

    Source: United Nations General Assembly and Security Council

    UN Official Notes Fragility in Border Areas despite Overall Security Improvement

    The Central African Republic has made significant progress towards the 2025 elections, the head of the United Nations peacekeeping mission in the country told the Security Council today, while also noting overall security improvements and persistent fragility in border areas.

    Valentine Rugwabiza, Secretary-General’s Special Representative and Head of the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA), emphasized that the upcoming electoral cycle represents a historic opportunity to lay the foundation for decentralized governance.  Recently, national authorities along with MINUSCA’s support were able to register 570,000 new voters and had opened the first-ever multiservice post at the country’s border with Chad.

    However, despite this important progress, serious pockets of insecurity persist, particularly in areas where armed groups try to control mining sites and transhumance corridors, she continued.  Implementation of the national border-management policy requires additional support as the conflict in Sudan also threatens to spill over.  While welcoming the dissolution of 9 out of 14 armed groups who signed the Political Agreement for Peace and Reconciliation six years ago, she also said that more needs to be done — in collaboration with regional partners — to facilitate the return of armed group leaders and ensure their disarmament.

    On the human rights front, she urged the Government to launch the Truth, Justice, Reparation and Reconciliation Commission, through the appointment of its new commissioners.  “If left unaddressed, [human rights] crimes could undermine the hard-earned security gains and further erode social cohesion,” she warned. Paying tribute to a 29-year-old Tunisian peacekeeper recently killed in an ambush in Bamingui-Bangoran, she urged the authorities to bring the perpetrators to justice.

    “We need your support to build a stronger and more inclusive economy in the Central African Republic,” said Portia Deya Abazene, President of the Federation of Women Entrepreneurs of the Central African Republic, via video link.  Despite the adoption of international conventions and a constitution guaranteeing equal rights, “harmful practices continue to hinder the progress of women in [Central African Republic]”, she said, highlighting the low representation of women in leadership positions.  Women represent only 15.52 per cent of business owners in certain sectors and face constraints in accessing land, means of production, education, financing, markets and decent employment.

    Women Key to Economic Development

    Ms. Abazene’s organization provides a space for experience-sharing among women entrepreneurs at the local level, as well as training programmes in leadership, management, financial education and digital marketing.  “The achievements of Central African women in entrepreneurship are the result of their determination and political will,” she underscored, calling for policies promoting female entrepreneurship and easier access to financing.  “The Central African Republic will not reach its potential as long as more than 51 per cent of its population” —  women —  continue to be marginalized, she said. 

    Council members emphasized the need to address human rights violations in the country, urged its authorities to seize the opportunity to hold credible elections, and highlighted MINUSCA’s vital role in helping to expand State authority.  Several speakers, however, offered differing views on the root causes of Bangui’s instability.

    United States, United Kingdom, Russian Federation Trade Barbs 

    “It is clear that Kremlin-backed actors, purporting to be security partners, are undercutting Central African Republic’s authorities and undermining peace with the primary goal of stealing [Central African Republic] resources without contributing to its development,” said the representative of the United States. . “It is unacceptable that a member of this Council continues to disseminate disinformation that diminishes the credibility and effectiveness of MINUSCA,” he added, expressing serious concern over the violation of the Status of Forces Agreement, namely the blocking of MINUSCA fuel trucks.

    The United Kingdom’s delegate said his country has information “that proxies directed by the Russian State have plans to interfere with [Central African Republic] elections, including through suppressing political voices and conducting disinformation campaigns to interfere in political debate”.  They are acting without regard for the country’s sovereignty and jeopardizing the dedicated UN role, he said.  Also highlighting reports of Wagner Ti Azande and other armed groups committing atrocities against civilians, he called on all actors to the conflict to uphold their obligations under international law.

    The representative of the Russian Federation said that, given the considerable security improvements in the Central African Republic, it is “surprising” that the United States and United Kingdom continue “whipping the dead horse of their campaign to smear” her country.  This campaign has run out of steam.  Moscow remains committed to cooperating with Bangui to achieve lasting peace and security.  As far as the security situation, she expressed concerns for the area bordering Sudan, which has become an “additional burden” of human rights concerns.  Successful municipal elections in July will be a “milestone on the road to peaceful life” in the Central African Republic.

    The representative of China, Council President for February, speaking in his national capacity, said the situation in the country “is good, in general”, with progress in enhancing governance capacity and consolidating political gains.  MINUSCA must prioritize support for election preparations, he said, adding that the international community should avoid undue external interference.

    Democratic, Inclusive, Fair Elections

    The representative of Somalia, also speaking for Algeria, Guyana and Sierra Leone, welcomed the inauguration of “the first-ever multiservice border post in the Central African Republic” built with MINUSCA’s support. Despite security, logistical and financial challenges — preparations towards local, legislative and presidential elections are progressing.  Emphasizing the need for open and constructive dialogue between the Government and opposition parties, he also called for “concerted” efforts to ensure that all eligible citizens are registered to vote.  “We wish to underline that the success of the local election process is essential for the strengthening of direct democracy, legitimacy, local development and the extension of State authority throughout the national territory,” he added.

    Other speakers also said that the upcoming elections were a unique opportunity for the Central African Republic, with Panama’s delegate emphasizing that 2025 is a “pivotal year” for Bangui.  “These will be the first local elections in more than three decades,” he said, urging the Government to guarantee that “these elections will be carried out in a peaceful environment”.  Slovenia’s delegate said that, while local elections can signify a major step in the further decentralization of the country, they “will only be considered credible and democratic, if all eligible voters are able to register and cast their vote, including women, youth, minorities, internally displaced persons, returnees and refugees”.

    Fear of Sudan Conflict Spillover

    Joining others in expressing concern over the spillover of the conflict in Sudan, the representative of the Republic of Korea said that the presence of the Rapid Support Forces — a paramilitary group in Sudan — in the Central African Republic “only brings more risk to the already-fragile landscape”.  Similarly, Greece’s representative said that recent gains in border-management policy “are undermined by the transiting of armed groups across the porous north-eastern region”.

    Pakistan’s delegate noted that his country had contributed 1,300 troops to MINUSCA and expressed concern over the shortfall in funding.  “As of 4 February, unpaid assessed contributions to the Special Account for MINUSCA amounted to $570.7 million,” he said.  Other Council members also stressed the need to provide financial and material support for the Central African Republic, with France’s delegate noting that Paris has allocated €2 million to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) for Bangui’s upcoming elections, and €200,000 to enable the country’s Special Criminal Court to function.  Peacebuilding “depends on progress achieved in combating impunity”, he stressed.

    The representative of the Central African Republic, detailing his country’s “considerable progress in pursuing peace” since the signing of the 2019 peace agreement, reported that 9 of 14 armed groups have dissolved, 7,000 combatants have disarmed and demobilized, and 20,000 weapons of various calibres have been collected.  “This is a sign of historic progress,” he stressed, while noting the “one major challenge” remaining — “the complete eradication of isolated armed groups, which continue to carry out atrocities against civilians”.  To the armed groups that remain, he underscored:  “The door for dialogue remains wide open.”

    He went on to stress:  “Insecurity directly threatens the democratic process that we intend to consolidate.” Noting that the crisis is Sudan is seriously impacting his own, he called on the international community to support Bangui’s forces; provide training, logistical and intelligence support; and strengthen MINUSCA’s mandate so the Mission can be more proactive in addressing security threats.  And for the ongoing electoral process — “a fundamental pillar for stability and lasting peace” — he appealed for financial support amounting to $7 million. “By supporting this process, the international community will be directly contributing to peace and development in our country,” he said.

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI USA: In Memoriam: Pierre Morel [1933–2024]

    Source: NASA

    Pierre Morel, the first director of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and founding member of WCRP’s Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) Core project, died on December 10, 2024.
    Pierre began his research as a theoretical physicist. His doctoral thesis examined the existence and properties of a condensed superfluid state of liquid Helium 3 at very low temperature. He lectured on basic physics, geophysical fluid dynamics, and climate science. As his career progressed, he focused his research on studying the circulation of the atmosphere. He was devoted to the development of numerical modelling of atmospheric flow that laid the groundwork for the study of climatology.
    Pierre’s work played an integral role in the development of tools used to study the atmosphere, many of which are still active today. Examples include Project Éole – an experimental wind energy plant conceived in the 1980s and created in Quebec, Canada that closed down in 1993; the ARGOS satellite, a collaboration between the Centre National d’Études Spatiale (CNES) [French Space Agency], National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and NASA, to collect and relay meteorological and oceanographic data around the world that launched in 1978; the Search and Rescue Satellite Aided Tracking (SARSAT) system, which was developed by the U.S. – specifically NOAA, NASA, and the U.S. Coast Guard and Air Force – Canada, and France, with the first satellite launch in 1982; and the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites’ METEOSAT series of geostationary satellites, which launched in 1977 and remain active today. The launch of Meteosat–12 in 2022 was the first METEOSAT Third Generation (MTG) launch.
    Early in his career, Pierre was the director of the French Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) before he became the director of the Centre National d’Études Spatiales (CNES). In 1980 he became the first chairman of the WCRP, where he steered a broad interdisciplinary research program in global climate and Earth system science that involved the participation of atmospheric, oceanic, hydrological, and polar scientists worldwide. Pierre was later in charge of planetary programs at NASA and was involved in discussions about the future of NASA’s Earth Observing System (EOS) in the mid-to-late 1990s. As an example, the Earth Observer article, “Minutes Of The Fourteenth Earth Science Enterprise/Earth Observing System (ESE/EOS) Investigators Working Group Meeting,” includes a summary of a presentation Pierre gave that focused on flight mission planning for the EOS “second series,” which was NASA’s plan at the time although ultimately not pursued, with the “first series” (i.e., Terra, Aqua, Aura) enduring much longer than anticipated.
    Pierre was the recipient of the 2008 Alfred Wegener Medal & Honorary Membership for his outstanding contributions to geophysical fluid dynamics, his leadership in the development of climate research, and the applications of space observation to meteorology and the Earth system science.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: DDG Ellard urges support for multilateral trading system amid geopolitical challenges

    Source: World Trade Organization

    Good morning, Chairman Lange, esteemed Members of the European Parliament, and the Steering Committee of the Interparliamentary Union.

    It is a privilege to be here with you today. I have a deep appreciation for the complexities of your work and the pivotal position you occupy in bringing together international institutions with the public you represent.

    As Parliamentarians, your engagement on WTO matters is essential — not only for shaping trade policy but for ensuring that our work delivers real and meaningful benefits to the public. Parliaments serve as the voice of the people in global trade discussions, and your leadership is crucial in making multilateralism both effective and responsive to the needs of your citizens.

    Today, as the WTO marks its 30th anniversary, and its 80th beginning as the GATT, I will focus on two pressing topics. First, I will describe the negotiating priorities outlined by the WTO’s Members as we gear up for the 14th Ministerial Conference, scheduled to take place in March next year in Cameroon. Second, I will touch upon the broader geopolitical context — a subject that I know is front and center.

    Fish

    Let me begin with a subject that is especially important to showing the success of the multilateral trading system for economic and environmental sustainability:  fisheries subsidies. One of our Members’ most pressing priorities is to ensure the entry into force of the Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies, while also advancing and completing the negotiations on the second phase, to achieve even deeper disciplines. These efforts are vital to protecting our oceans and promoting sustainable fishing practices worldwide.

    The landmark WTO Agreement on Fisheries Subsidies concluded at MC12 in 2022 brought WTO Members a major step closer to fulfilling the SDG 14.6 mandate by prohibiting subsidies to fishing activities considered to be among the most harmful to the sustainability of our oceans. It is estimated that USD 22 billion of harmful fisheries subsidies are provided each year. Through this Agreement, WTO Members have banned such subsidies provided to vessels involved in illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing, fishing of overfished stocks, and fishing in the unregulated high seas.

    IUU fishing accounts for approximately 20% of the world’s catch, depleting global fish stocks. Moreover, the FAO estimates that almost 38% of global fish stocks are overfished, and by some measures, the devastation is even higher. The AFS can help to reverse this significant and worsening loss of natural resources.

    However, the full potential of the Agreement will be realized only once it enters into force, which requires the acceptance of two-thirds (or 111) of WTO Members. To date, 90 Members have deposited their instruments of acceptance, bringing us within striking distance of our goal — we need just 21 more.

    I would like to sincerely thank the European Union for being among the first to accept the Agreement. In addition, generous contributions by the EU and its member States to the Fish Fund will support developing and least-developed Members with the implementation of the Agreement if they have deposited their acceptances. We are so close to entry into force but not quite there yet.  I strongly urge you to continue your leadership by encouraging and helping those who have not yet formally accepted the Agreement to do so as soon as possible. And for those here today from the IPU Steering Committee who have not deposited, please count on the WTO Secretariat to help you any way we can. We are aiming for the entry into force of the Agreement before the Third UN Ocean Conference (UNOC3), taking place in June in Nice, co-hosted by France and Costa Rica. The need to get this done is urgent, and we are counting on everyone to work to meet the goal.

    The second priority related to fisheries subsidies is concluding the second wave of negotiations on additional disciplines.

    At the WTO General Council meeting last December, it was clear that nearly all Members, with the exception of just a few, were ready to conclude the negotiations based on the most recent draft text circulated last November (TN/RL/W/285). While some Members have noted that the disciplines are not perfect, they still acknowledge the substantial value of the current package in curbing subsidies that contribute to overcapacity and overfishing. However, those Members that do not support the text have expressed fundamental differences.

    While no agreement is perfect and every Member may have aspects they wish to modify, it is in everyone’s interest to achieve an outcome. If Members fail to do so, the absence of disciplines on overcapacity and overfishing will mean continued deterioration of fish stocks for everyone. We are at a tipping point. 

    We remain committed to bringing this second wave of negotiations across the finish line and will continue to rely on the  constructive engagement of those present here today to make this a reality. Urgent action is needed for both economic and environmental sustainability.

    Dispute Settlement

    The second priority is reforming the WTO’s dispute settlement system to ensure that WTO rules remain meaningful for the benefit of all Members.

    At MC12 in 2022, WTO Members committed to having “a fully and well-functioning dispute settlement system accessible to all Members by 2024” and reiterated this objective at MC13 last year. This deadline has passed, and Members are currently working to establish a path forward. I wish to thank the European Union and others in this room for their constructive stance and continued engagement in the reform process.

    Following MC13, the reform of the DS system was formally advanced under the leadership of the Permanent Representative of Mauritius, who, together with six co-convenors at the expert level, worked to address outstanding issues. These included the topics of appeal/review, accessibility, and “works done thus far”. Since the departure of Mauritius’ Ambassador in last November, the General Council (GC) Chair continued to directly oversee the reform process, engaging with Members to gather perspectives on how to build upon the progress and further advance the reform.

    The reform process has already resulted in several draft texts different areas. Notably, Members have developed an advanced substantive draft on “Capacity Building” and “Technical Assistance”. This is crucial for enhancing the technical support we provide to developing Members. While Members made strides in the discussions surrounding appeal/review, this remains one of the more challenging aspects of the reform, and further efforts are needed to resolve the outstanding issues.

    I know that our Members are awaiting word from the United States as to its position. I remain hopeful that we will continue to make progress on this crucial work.

    In the meantime, the WTO continues to serve as the primary forum for resolving international trade disputes. Eight disputes are currently ongoing, along with eleven active consultations. We have also observed an increase in negotiated solutions among Members, with the panel process often serving as a catalyst for these agreements. The dispute settlement work at the WTO remains robust.

    Agriculture

    Third, it is vital that WTO Members make progress on agriculture.

    Agriculture is expected to be a central element on the MC14 agenda, especially because of its fundamental role in supporting food security and driving socio-economic development, particularly across the African continent. Consensus has remained out of reach as to the process and timeline for these negotiations. As the outgoing Chair of the negotiations outlined in his recent report (JOB/AG/265), rebuilding trust and setting credible targets is essential to progressively restoring an effective negotiating process and achieving an agricultural outcome in March 2025 in Yaoundé.

    Plurilateral initiatives

    The fourth priority is for Members to find a way to incorporate the results of plurilateral joint initiatives — the Investment Facilitation for Development (IFD) Agreement and the Agreement on E-commerce — into the WTO rulebook.

    These plurilateral initiatives represent the opportunity for like-minded Members to establish new and ambitious rules among themselves and break new ground within the WTO framework. They co-exist with the concept of multilateralism and do not reduce any WTO rights for non-participants.

    The IFD Agreement currently has 126 WTO Members as parties, including 90 developing and 27 LDC Members, as well as the EU. It aims to foster sustainable development by improving the investment climate through greater transparency and predictability and to facilitate investment flows, particularly to developing and LDC Members. The proponents of the Agreement seek to incorporate it into Annex IV of the WTO Agreement as a plurilateral agreement, with its benefits applied on an MFN basis to all WTO Members. Doing so requires consensus among our Members. However, a few Members have expressed opposition to its incorporation, citing systemic concerns and the impact on multilateralism. The proponents continue work to chart a path to integrate these important disciplines into the WTO rulebook.

    Ninety-one WTO Members, including the EU, have concluded negotiations on the text of the Agreement on Electronic Commerce and presented it to the General Council the day before yesterday for incorporation into the WTO rulebook. The Agreement aims at enabling electronic transactions and promoting digital trade facilitation, ensuring an open environment for digital trade, and promoting trust in e-commerce. It also has provisions on cooperation and development. As with IFD, a few Members oppose on systemic grounds.

    Multilateral work on e-commerce

    In terms of multilateral work on e-commerce, engagement continues under the multilateral Work Programme on Electronic Commerce, as outlined in the MC13 Decision, to be completed by MC14. In January, we held a Dedicated Discussion on bridging the digital divide, focusing on infrastructure, connectivity, and internet access. Another session in February will explore legal and regulatory frameworks, including consumer protection, privacy, and cybersecurity. These sessions aim to share national experiences, delve deeper into key themes, and reflect on actionable ideas. The goal is to identify concrete steps and recommendations for Ministers’ consideration at MC14.

    Another critical decision point is whether to extend the moratorium on the collection of duties on digital transmissions, set to expire on 31 March 2026 or at MC14, whichever comes first. In December, we convened a dedicated information session featuring input from the WTO Secretariat, IMF, UNCTAD, OECD, and South Centre. The session aimed to review existing studies on the moratorium’s impact, foster discussions on its scope and definition, and explore alternative taxation approaches. I encourage you to engage in an open dialogue and explore elements that could help establish a common ground to advance on this important issue.

    Development

    Each of these workstreams carries a strong development dimension, which remains a top priority for many of our Members, as developing countries make up two-thirds of our membership. Just a few weeks ago, WTO Members held a forward-looking retreat focused on leveraging trade as a tool for development and charting a path forward. We will build on this successful engagement in the lead up to MC14. 

    Geopolitical context

    Members of Parliaments, I would be remiss not to say anything about the current geopolitical situation and its impact on trade. We live in tumultuous times — times when trade measures and also countermeasures are announced and implemented within mere days, sometimes hours. The climate of uncertainty affects businesses that operate internationally and rely on supply chains spread across different corners of the world. Such volatility can disrupt economic stability, affect investment plans, and upset supply chains not only within Europe but across the globe.

    It is in times like these that a stable and predictable trading environment, anchored by the multilateral trading system and the World Trade Organization, is more necessary than ever. We were established and designed to promote transparency, stability, and predictability in global trade. Over the past 30 years, the WTO — which an entity composed of its Members — has been working diligently to uphold these principles, to secure a business environment that fosters growth and cooperation. The WTO continues to cover 80% of global trade, which remains unchanged despite recent developments. No single Member dominates the system — not even the United States, which accounts for 15.9% of global trade.

    Europe, with its commitment to open markets and a rules-based trading order, has been a cornerstone of the multilateral system and has long championed the cause of multilateralism and of a predictable trading environment.

    However, let us remember that the multilateral system cannot be taken for granted. Its strength and effectiveness is not automatic; it depends on you, its Members. Our estimates indicate that a collapse of the trading order could result in a staggering double-digit loss in global GDP. And even the mere presence of uncertainty chips away at our collective prosperity, eroding welfare bit by bit.

    That is why today, I appeal to you with an important reminder: the future of the multilateral trading system, and the WTO’s role as a guardian of security and predictability in global commerce, is in your hands.

    If you value the WTO, please help us deliver on the negotiating agenda I have just laid out.

    If you consider WTO rules inadequate or imperfect, I encourage you to collaborate with other Members to strengthen and improve them.

    If you think that your interests are being harmed by measures taken by other Members, I urge you to make full use of the WTO’s platform — whether through our committees, bilateral consultations, or the dispute settlement system — to address and resolve these issues constructively.

    And as you consider the application of your own trade measures, particularly in response to those taken by others, I urge you to remain level-headed and consider not just the immediate effects, but also the broader, long-term consequences, on consumers, industries, and the global trading system. And let us not forget the impact on developing countries — when elephants fight, the grass gets trampled. And that hurts the elephants too.

    In a time when trade is increasingly disrupted by unpredictable and destabilizing actions, your support is crucial in ensuring that the rules-based system we’ve worked so hard to build endures, ultimately benefiting all.  

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    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI Europe: President von der Leyen at the CARICOM Leaders’ Summit to strengthen partnership between the European Union and the Caribbean

    Source: European Commission

    European Commission Press release Brussels, 20 Feb 2025 During the first-ever visit of a European Commission President to the Caribbean, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen reaffirmed Europe’s commitment to deepening its relations and partnership with the region.

    At the invitation of Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Chair, Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley, President von der Leyen met the 15 leaders of the Caribbean Community during the 48th Regular Meeting of the CARICOM.  The visit aims at further strengthening the EU’s presence in the region and lay the groundwork for the EU-CELAC Summit, planned for later this year.  

    In a new era of harsh geostrategic competition, Europe stands for openness, partnership and outreach. The visit took place in the context of the Commission’s effort to build new partnerships and strengthen old ones, which includes recent agreements with Mercosur, Mexico and Malaysia.

    President von der Leyen said: “Europe and the Caribbean may be an ocean apart, but we are close allies. We share so many interests and values, including our mutual support for Ukraine. Europe stands with the Caribbean countries in the fight against climate change, protecting nature and biodiversity, strengthening trade, and boosting investments through Global Gateway. Europe wants to be a fair and trusted partner for all regions of the world that want to work with us.”

    President von der Leyen also discussed with Caribbean partners the situation in Haiti. She underlined the EU’s commitment to Haiti’s recovery and security and its support to CARICOM efforts in this regard. In this context, a package of €19.5 million EU support was announced during the visit. This new financial support will complement ongoing efforts to deliver essential services to Haitians as well as support the country’s macroeconomic stability.

    President von der Leyen highlighted the EU’s commitment to supporting Caribbean partners in fighting climate change and its devastating impact on the islands. As the leading provider of climate finance, the EU is determined to work together on innovative financing, while promoting private sector investments.

    At global level, the EU and the Caribbean are stepping up their energy partnership following the launch of the Global Energy Transition Forum by President von der Leyen in Davos last month. She welcomed the 8 countries (Barbados, Guyana, Grenada, Haiti, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Dominica)* that joined the forum during the summit, committing to action to meet the global targets of tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030.

    During the visit, President von der Leyen underscored the reliability of the EU as a trade and investment partner to the region working together on mutually beneficial projects. President von der Leyen launched several projects under Europe’s Global Gateway strategy on renewable energy, digital transformation, pharmaceutical production and economic resilience. The projects will invest in a stronger, greener and better connected Caribbean.

    Key Global Gateway projects in the Caribbean

    Expanding Renewable Energy: Global Gateway energy projects are underway in 13 Caribbean countries, leveraging European expertise, technology, and financing tools. In this context, President von der Leyen and Prime Minister Mottley announced a €160 million green hydrogen storage project by the French company HDF Energy, the first of its kind in the Caribbean.

    Advancing the Digital Agenda: The EU and the Caribbean are strengthening their digital partnership with the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the Caribbean and the European satellite company Hispasat during the CARICOM meeting. It will improve the Caribbean’s satellite internet connectivity and sovereignty within the framework of the EU–LAC Digital Alliance. As part of this initiative, the EU and Spain will provide a €10 million grant to support satellite broadband expansion and promote digital inclusion across the region.

    Developing Local Pharmaceutical Production: The EU’s €8.9 million investment to promote local production and regulatory alignment with European standards was also taken forward in the framework of the CARICOM meeting. A joint declaration to cooperate on twinning Caribbean and EU regulatory agencies, capacity-building initiatives, and research collaborations was signed during the meeting. Additionally, the first investment from a European pharmaceutical company, Biomed X in Barbados, will support research and manufacturing, further reinforcing the region’s health resilience.

    Supporting Post-Hurricane Reconstruction: As part of the assistance given to Grenada in rebuilding Carriacou and Petite Martinique after Hurricane Beryl, the EU is supporting the islands to become 100% powered by renewable energy. This initiative will serve as a global model for small islands striving for climate resilience.

    Combating the Sargassum Challenge: The EU, in collaboration with regional partners, is transforming the environmental and economic challenge of sargassum seaweed into an opportunity for sustainable development. Through an ongoing €386 million Global Gateway initiative, the EU is working with financial institutions such as the European Investment Bank and the private sector to develop sustainable value chains for sargassum, particularly in Grenada.

    For More Information

    Opening remarks by President von der Leyen at the opening ceremony of the 48th Regular Session of the Conference of CARICOM

    Statement by President von der Leyen at the joint press conference with Barbadian Prime Minister Mottley

    * Updated on 20/02/2025 at 14:55

     Europe and the Caribbean may be an ocean apart, but we are close allies. We share so many interests and values, including our mutual support for Ukraine. Europe stands with the Caribbean countries in the fight against climate change, protecting nature and biodiversity, strengthening trade, and boosting investments through Global Gateway. Europe wants to be a fair and trusted partner for all regions of the world that want to work with us.

    Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: From suits to social justice: World’s top human rights forum turns stage over

    Source: United Nations 2

    Trading suits, ties and debates for DJ turntables, bright traditional Indigenous garb and ancient instruments, three performers – an anthropologist, an R&B singer and a genre-defying artist – showcased their music and messages at the Stand Up for Social Justice event to celebrate the World Day of Social Justice, marked annually on 20 February.

    It took place in front of hundreds of people in the emblematic Human Rights and Alliance of Civilizations Room, where high-stakes diplomacy happens throughout the year.

    The world needs more diverse platforms like the UN “so that transculturality can exist”, said Brisa Flow, a Chilean-born Mapuche artist who got her first break in rap battles in Brazil, following her intense musical performance.

    “We need more empathy and to listen more to Indigenous Peoples in order to better understand how to take care of our territories that need care, not just in terms of water, food and land, but also our children and our elders,” said the São Paulo-based singer, rocking a green marble-printed manicure.

    “We need to be in spaces where everything we speak about is not just a utopia, where hope, which exists, can be heard and considered.”

    Calls for change around the world

    Ms. Flow joined French-speaking Geneva-born R&B revelation Ocevne (pronounced Océane) and anthropologist-cum-poet Idjahure Terena in delivering powerful music and personal messages inspired by social justice while helping to link local realities to issues of a global scale.

    Echoing the Day’s 2025 theme Strengthening a Just Transition for a Sustainable Future, the event was co-organised by UNRISD, an independent UN research institute focusing on development issues, and Antigel, a Geneva-based music festival designed to make culture more accessible.

    The messages from the young people on stage did just that, with electrifying performances and calls for change around the world.

    For Ocevne, 28, the message was about equality.

    “The simplest way I could define it is simply the right to equal opportunities,” she said. “No matter your background, where you come from, who you are, your gender, everything, we all have the right to that opportunity.”

    © City of Geneva/ANTIGEL/Giona

    Ocevne warming up the room at the Stand Up for Social Justice event.

    ‘No climate justice without social justice’

    Climate justice was another recurring theme throughout the event, an issue highlighted by Mr. Terena, a doctoral student in social anthropology at the University of São Paulo and poet who spends much of his time defending the rights of his community and others.

    “There is no climate justice without social justice,” he told the audience. “We know that standing forests are the simplest and most efficient solution for fighting global warming.”

    The young researcher slammed the impact of mining companies and agribusinesses on his ancestral land that belongs to the Terena people of Brazil in the Pantanal region of Mato Grosso do Sul.

    “This is not just a territorial issue, but a matter of physical and cultural survival for our peoples and for humanity as indigenous lands represent the most important areas of biodiversity,” he said, inviting the audience to fight for a “common, diverse living world”.

    © Courtesy of Idjahure Terena

    Idjahure Terena playing the japurutu flute with his father-in-law Francisco Baniwa in Brazil.

    ‘The future is going to be very hot’

    Indeed, “the future is going to be very hot,” said Ms. Flow, adding that “it is already very hot in Brazil, and this is urgent for us because without water, we cannot live, and without food, [we cannot] either.”

    Advocating for issues affecting indigenous communities, including the burning impacts of climate change on the natural resources of her home country, she said collectively not enough is getting done.

    “We need more communication and more exchanges. By exchanges, I mean listening, speaking, listening, speaking and thinking about new ways of living well so that we can keep heading into the future.”

    © Giselle Dietze

    Brazilian federal deputy Célia Xakriabá (right) performs with artist Brisa Flow at the Stand Up for Social Justice concert.

    Amplifying marginalised voices

    The event is the brainchild of the UN Research Institute for Social Development (UNRISD) Head of communications chief Karima Cherif, who wanted to bridge art and research through the initiative.

    She says her institute works with scholars from the global South to ensure that the voices and expertise of minorities are heard.

    “We’re giving voices to the marginalised and the youth,” explained Ms. Cherif, who sees art as a way to “translate what we do in a language that can touch hearts”.

    ‘Never give up’

    Thuy-San Dinh, who heads Antigel, echoed her vision and encouraged the young audience to pursue their goals, recalling when she co-created the annual event 15 years ago.

    “You have to believe in your ideas and never give up,” Ms. Dinh said.

    Melanie Rouquier, who created SHAP SHAP, a non-profit that fights global inequality and discrimination through cultural projects, told several activists in the room that each of their actions showed citizen engagement was not a lost cause.

    “To resist, we have to get together,” she said.

    © City of Geneva/ANTIGEL/Giona

    Brisa Flow playing a traditional instrument at the Stand Up for Social Justice concert in Geneva in February 2025.

    Connecting generations

    For Aryan Yasin, a designer from Geneva who founded a cultural non-profit supporting disadvantaged youth, the show was an opportunity for cross-pollination and broadening his network by connecting with UN staff.

    The exceptional venue “is not a place where you would necessarily see young people”, he said. “But, that actually allows us to create an intergenerational connection, with people who are more experienced, more established,” he added.

    After the show, management student Ludivine said she was mesmerised by the experience. Putting on a concert with one of her favourite artists there to denounce inequalities “makes sense… because at the UN, people get together to talk about inequalities around the world.”

    © Courtesy of Brisa Flow

    Ms. Flow (right) at a protest by the Guarani people of Brazil.

    What is social justice?

    After the event ended, doctoral students Beatrice and Thomas shared what the concept of social justice, which can seem quite abstract, meant to them.

    “It’s about recognising and taking differences into account while ensuring that everyone has the same access” to the same opportunities, said Beatrice, from Italy, who studies at École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne.

    “That may mean that some people will need more support, while others may not need as much, but have different needs.”

    Thomas offered a more societal vision of the idea.

    “For me, it’s something that is both individual and collective – something that must be built as a society. It is entirely dependent on the structures we have put in place, but it also relies on everything that is local.”

    Read our social justice explainer here.

    ‘We need to be united’

    Ahead of the concert, Tatiana Valovaya, Director-General of the UN Office at Geneva set the tone in her opening remarks in the Human Rights and Civilisation Room.

    “This room sees a lot of very important and challenging negotiations,” she told the audience. “But, today we open this room to everyone.”

    Geneva Mayor Christina Kitsos, whose term is guided by the motto “what connects us”, reminded the youthful audience of the UN’s fundamental role despite the worrying rise of “desire to undermine all the work [that has been done] around humanitarian aid and human rights”.

    “We need to be united, strong and truly hopeful and courageous to ensure that we stay the course, that we remain a beacon in this world in turmoil,” she said.

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Announcing the 2025 Imagine Cup Semifinalists

    Source: Microsoft

    Headline: Announcing the 2025 Imagine Cup Semifinalists

    We’re excited to announce the next phase of the 2025 Imagine Cup – meet the startups who were selected to advance to the Semifinals! These student founders are the future, and their innovative ideas are sure to capture your interest and perhaps spark your own new idea.

    The semifinalists will receive advice and guidance through personalized mentorship and additional benefits within Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub to help further develop their idea and solution as they prepare for the next round of the competition. A panel of judges (including AI experts, startup founders, and venture capitalists – meet them here!) will select the top three startups. These startups will advance to World Championship, competing for the ultimate prize of $100,000 USD1 and a mentorship session with Microsoft Chairman and CEO, Satya Nadella! The two runners-up will each receive $25,000 USD1.

    Inspired by the ideas below? Apply to Microsoft for Startups Founders Hub to begin launching your own startup today. Access free industry-leading AI, credits with fewer restrictions, and tools to scale quickly.

    Congratulations to the semifinalists! (listed in alphabetical order):

    ADA.AI, Indonesia

    ADA.AI is an accessible AI-driven job-matching platform that empowers job seekers with disabilities through inclusive hiring and career tools like CV Maker and Career Tree. It addresses corporate social responsibility (CSR) goals for human resources, ensuring seamless and equitable opportunities for all.


    Argus, United States

    Argus is a two-part device that empowers independence for visually impaired individuals by responding to questions about the world around them, aiding with tasks like object identification, facial recognition, and navigation.


    BaharMar, United States

    BaharMar automates the sorting and inspection of juvenile fish in hatcheries and RAS farms using AI-powered computer vision and synchronized hardware. Achieving over 90% accuracy, it reduces labor demands, improves fish health, and enhances profitability. Focused on sustainability, it helps farms scale operations to meet rising global seafood demand.


    Cognify, United Arab Emirates

    Cognify is an AI study app that helps students with ADHD study effectively by generating concise and interactive lessons from their own study materials. It uses eye-tracking technology to alert them when they get distracted.


    DaNang Speech, Vietnam

    DaNang Speech provides a comprehensive Vietnamese language dictionary equipped with advanced mispronunciation detection capabilities. By leveraging speech recognition and artificial intelligence technologies, it offers seamless API integration to facilitate pronunciation improvement for children, students, and foreign language learners.


    FuiZion KrEw, United Arab Emirates

    FuiZion KrEw’s product Lexy is an AI-powered reading assistant that makes text accessible for people with dyslexia through personalized content adaptation, smart remixing, and real-time feedback.


    HairMatch, United States

    HairMatch is an AI-powered hair analysis app for finding natural haircare products, personalizing hair care. It allows women to scan their curly hair and receive product recommendations.


    Handify.AI, France

    Handify is an AI-powered robotic assistant for disabled individuals and the elderly. It combines a voice-controlled arm and advanced Large Language Model (LLM) to perform tasks, offer real-time analysis, and enhance independence—all at an affordable price.


    Intratalent, United States

    Intratalent is an AI-powered resume screener by analyzing resumes, GitHub, and research papers. It integrates with existing application tracking systems, ranks top candidates, and reduces time-to-screen by 10x for medium-to-large enterprises, offering deeper contextual matching and transparent rationale for every recommendation.


    Koel Labs, United States

    Koel Labs provides personalized, actionable, real-time pronunciation feedback through entertaining movie-clips and television shows for the 50% of foreign speakers struggling with their accent every day.


    MariTest, United Kingdom

    MariTest is an AI-powered, non-invasive malaria diagnostic device. It detects malaria using a paramagnetic signature, making it portable and user-friendly. The device provides real-time diagnosis and data transfer without needing blood samples, labs, or skilled healthcare workers, ideal for remote areas.


    MediSmart, Saudi Arabia

    MediSmart is a medication reminder application utilizing AI technology. Its goal is to enhance medication adherence through personalized reminders and integrated user support, improving health outcomes and reducing medical costs.


    Omniglot, Vietnam

    Omniglot is an AI-powered translation tool designed to deliver a seamless and efficient workflow. It combining user-adapted style, cloud-based convenience, and Azure AI-backed privacy, specifically tailored for freelance translators and independent publishers.


    RSL, Saudi Arabia

    RSL is an AI-powered autism screening system using a social robot that engages children with gamified activities while analyzing speech, behavior, and emotions. It provides accurate diagnostics, improving accessibility and efficiency for therapists.


    Sabana, United States

    Sabana is an AI-driven data management platform designed to simplify how architects and engineers manage, document, and collaborate on product selections and construction specifications.


    Signvrse, Rwanda

    Signvrse is an AI-powered platform bridging communication gaps between the Deaf and hearing communities. Its tool, Terp, uses lifelike avatars to translate spoken languages into sign language, fostering inclusivity and accessibility on a global scale.


    Smart Grade AI, Pakistan

    Smart Grade AI automates manual grading with AI-driven essay evaluation, providing instant feedback and analytics to save educators time and improve student outcomes.


    ToolDetective, Brazil

    ToolDetective provides predictive maintenance for the manufacturing industry by checking metal cutting tool wear during each cycle of machining. It using computer vision based on deep learning algorithms to segment the wear on the image and increase the tool’s lifetime.


    Verse, United States

    Verse uses AI to provide assignable, voice-based conversations that encourage critical thinking and active learning. It supports over 50 languages and helps prevent plagiarism and AI misuse. Ideal for educators, Verse offers real-time, interactive assignments that promote deeper thinking and accommodate diverse learning styles.

    Stay tuned and follow us on X, Instagram, LinkedIn, and Facebook for exciting announcements and the latest updates.

    1Open only to enrolled high-school or college/university students 18+. For additional eligibility criteria, round start/end dates, and detailed instructions on how to participate, see the Imagine Cup Official Rules and Regulations.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia wants zero road deaths by 2050 – but there’s a major hurdle

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Soltani, Mid-Career Researcher, College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University

    Branislav Cerven/Shutterstock

    In the past 12 months, more than 1,300 people have died on Australia’s roads. In January alone, there were 114 road deaths in Australia – roughly 20% more than the average for that month over the previous five years.

    Our new study projects these tragedies are set to continue over the next 25 years, despite a commitment by Australian governments to achieving zero deaths on the nation’s roads by 2050.

    Published in the journal Injury, our study uses a modelling tool to forecast the number of road fatalities in 2030, 2040 and 2050. Importantly, it also identifies the people and regions at higher risks, which provides an opportunity for taking a more nuanced and targeted approach to road safety.

    Clear trends

    Improved vehicle safety technology, stricter traffic laws and public awareness campaigns have led to a significant drop in the number of road deaths over the past several decades in Australia. But tragically, the number of people dying on Australia’s roads is still high.

    The data reveal some clear trends. For example, weekdays see fewer fatalities, likely due to routine commuting and lower-risk behaviours. On the other hand, weekends, particularly Saturdays, experience spikes linked to alcohol consumption and more social travel.

    December emerges as the deadliest month. This is likely driven by holiday travel surges, with secondary peaks in March and October tied to school holidays and seasonal weather changes that affect road conditions.

    Geographic disparities further complicate the picture. Urban centres in New South Wales and Victoria such as Sydney and Melbourne account for 35% to 40% of fatalities, in part because of dense traffic volumes, complex intersections and pedestrian-heavy zones.

    In contrast, rural and remote areas, though less congested, have more severe road accidents because of inadequate road infrastructure and higher speed limits. For example, the Northern Territory, with vast stretches of high-speed highways, records the highest fatality rate, while the Australian Capital Territory, with its urban planning emphasis on safety, reports the lowest.

    Speed zones of 51–80 km/h are particularly lethal for vulnerable road users such as pedestrians, cyclists and motorcyclists. This underscores the crucial role of speed management in urban and rural areas alike.

    Demographic risks also remain entrenched. For example, men constitute more than 70% of fatalities – in part because they are more likely to engage in risky behaviour such as speeding and drunk driving. Young drivers (17–25 years) and middle-aged adults (40–64 years) are also over-represented due to a combination of inexperience, overconfidence and high mileage.

    In good news, child fatalities (0–16 years) have sharply declined. This reflects the success of targeted measures like child seat laws and school zone safety campaigns.

    High speed limits increase the risk of severe road accidents.
    BJP7images/Shutterstock

    35 years of data

    To forecast these trends over the next 25 years, our new study used a modelling tool called Prophet developed by tech company Meta.

    We fed 35 years of road data – from 1989 to 2024 – into the model. This data came from Australia’s Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics. It incorporated variables such as road user type, age, gender, speed limits and geographic location.

    To refine predictions, we also incorporated public holidays such as Christmas and Easter.

    Prophet outperformed other models we tested, including SARIMA and ETS. It did a better job at modelling past changes in road safety. And it especially excelled at handling non-linear trends, multiple seasonal patterns (daily, weekly, yearly) and the effects of holiday periods.

    An unmet target

    The findings of the study are cause for some cautious optimism.

    Overall, by 2050 fatalities are expected to decline. But Australia’s ambitious zero fatality target by the middle of the century will remain unmet.

    The modelling indicates annual male fatalities will drop from 855 in 2030 to 798 in 2050, while female fatalities will plummet from 229 to 92.

    There will also be a drop in the number of child fatalities – from 37 in 2030 to just two in 2050. But the model shows a troubling rise of the number of older drivers (over 65) dying on Australia’s roads – from 273 in 2030 to 301 in 2050. This reflects Australia’s ageing population, with more people expected to have both reduced mobility and reduced reflexes.

    Motorcyclist fatalities buck the overall trend, rising from 229 in 2030 to 253 in 2050. This signals urgent needs for dedicated lanes and better rider education.

    Regionally, Queensland and the Northern Territory lag due to rural road risks. Urban areas with speed limits lower than 80 km/h show steadier declines.

    Motorcyclist fatalities are expected to rise from 229 in 2030 to 253 in 2050.
    FotoDax/Shutterstock

    A shared priority

    Based on these findings, our study provides several recommendations to mitigate the risk of death on Australia’s roads.

    Speed management: enforce dynamic speed limits in high-risk zones such as school areas and holiday corridors, and expand 80 km/h zones on rural highways.

    Targeted campaigns: launch gender-specific safety initiatives for men (for example, anti-speeding programs) and age-focused interventions, such as mandatory refresher courses for drivers over 65.

    Infrastructure upgrades: invest in rural road safety such as median barriers and better signage, as well as dedicated cyclist pathways.

    Technology integration: accelerate the adoption of autonomous vehicles to reduce crashes caused by human error and risky behaviours, and pilot artificial intelligence-driven traffic systems for real-time hazard detection.

    Expand public transport: subsidise off-peak travel and rural transit networks to reduce how much people – particularly high-risk groups – depend on car travel.

    Better enforcement: strengthen weekend and nighttime policing of roads and deploy more mobile speed cameras during peak holiday periods.

    By following these recommendations, Australia can move closer to its vision of safer roads. Our findings underscore that sustained progress demands not only rigorous policy, but also community engagement.

    Ali Soltani has received funding from the Flinders Foundation, the National Road Safety Action Grant (NRSAGP), and the Lifetime Support Authority Grant in 2024. He is also a FIAS (French Institute of Advanced Studies) Fellow, Le Studium, under the Marie Curie Actions of the European Commission (2024–25). Additionally, he has affiliations with the Planning Institute of Australia, SA Branch, and has received multiple research and travel grants.

    ref. Australia wants zero road deaths by 2050 – but there’s a major hurdle – https://theconversation.com/australia-wants-zero-road-deaths-by-2050-but-theres-a-major-hurdle-250371

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI USA: Senators Coons, Rounds reintroduce legislation to protect American hostages and wrongful detainees from tax penalties

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Delaware Christopher Coons
    WASHINGTON – U.S. Senators Chris Coons (D-Del.) and Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) reintroduced the Stop Tax Penalties on American Hostages Act today to prevent the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) from imposing fines or penalties on American hostages and wrongful detainees for late tax payments while they are held abroad. In addition to Senators Coons and Rounds, this legislation is co-sponsored by Senators Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-La.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Rick Scott (R-Fla.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.), and Dave McCormick (R-Pa.). This bill was originally introduced in December 2022, and the Senate unanimously cleared the bill last year.
    “When you return to the United States after being held hostage or wrongfully detained overseas, the first thing that you should get from your government is a ‘welcome home.’ Instead, it’s usually a fine from the IRS for failing to pay your taxes while you sat in a foreign jail,” said Senator Coons. “This bipartisan legislation will fix a glaring flaw in our tax code to ensure that Americans who have already been through the unthinkable do not face thousands of dollars in fines and late fees from the IRS for non-payment of taxes. As we continue our work to bring home every wrongfully detained American, I encourage my colleagues to once again advance this bill and ensure we don’t make their re-entry to our country harder than it already is.”
    “After returning home, American citizens who were held hostage or wrongfully detained should be spending time with their families and getting back to their lives, not worrying about late fees on their taxes,” said Senator Rounds. “For obvious reasons, any American held hostage should not have the heavy hand of the IRS charging penalties on missed federal tax payments. Our legislation will protect Americans from misguided statutory requirements and unnecessary red tape when they return home.”
    “After returning home, American hostages and wrongful detainees should not have to face penalties for taxes missed while held abroad,” said Representative French Hill. “I am proud to introduce this bipartisan legislation that will correct a crucial gap in our laws that burdens these Americans with penalties and fines from the IRS after they return home.”
    “It goes without saying that no one who has endured wrongful detention or been taken hostage abroad should face the additional trial of navigating onerous tax burdens they incurred by no fault of their own when they return,” said Representative Dina Titus. “This commonsense, bicameral, bipartisan legislation will eliminate that unthinkable possibility by simplifying the tax code to postpone tax deadlines and refund late fees to support wrongful detainees, hostages, and their families.”
    “Hostage US strongly supports the Stop Tax Penalties on American Hostages Act. As the leading organization providing reintegration support, guidance, and resources to Americans held hostage or wrongfully detained abroad, we see firsthand the long-term impact captivity has on individuals and their loved ones. This critical piece of legislation prevents unjust tax burdens when hostages return home and means former captives can rebuild their lives without additional hardship. Americans who have endured captivity should have financial protections and this commonsense legislation will provide much-needed relief to those who have already suffered so much,” said Liz Cathcart, Executive Director of Hostage US.
    “On behalf of all U.S. nationals returning from captivity abroad and the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation, I sincerely commend Senator Coons’ and Senator Rounds’ leadership and their staff for this bill prohibiting tax penalties for hostages and wrongful detainees as an essential step forward,” said Diane Foley, Founder and President of the James W. Foley Legacy Foundation.
    Americans who are held abroad as hostages or wrongful detainees are fined and charged interest by the IRS in the event of non-payment of taxes while in prison or captivity abroad, as though they had simply chosen not to pay taxes. Jason Rezaian, a Washington Post reporter who was wrongfully detained by the Iranian government for more than a year, brought this issue to Senator Coons’ attention. When Rezaian came home in 2016, the IRS hit him with tens of thousands of dollars in fines and interest charges on taxes he wasn’t able to file while imprisoned. The IRS has made clear a legislative fix is needed to resolve this situation.
    Senator Coons has led numerous bills supporting American hostages and wrongful detainees and addressing financial hardships they often face upon their return. He reintroduced the Stop Tax Penalties on American Hostages Act alongside two other hostage bills today: the Fair Credit for American Hostages Act and Retirement Security for American Hostages Act. The first is a bill with Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) that would empower former hostages and detainees to restore credit scores that may have been negatively impacted during their detention. The latter is a bill with Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. (R-La.) that would ensure that hostages and wrongful detainees are not penalized in calculating their Social Security benefits. 
    A one-pager is available here.
    The full text of the legislation can be found here.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s art of the deal horrifies Ukraine and its allies

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    Browse through Donald Trump’s ghostwritten memoir, The Art of the Deal, and you’ll come across an aphorism which will go some way to explaining the US president’s approach to negotiating. Having established that he would do nearly anything within legal bounds to win, Trump adds that: “Sometimes, part of making a deal is denigrating your competition.”

    It’s an idea which makes a lot of sense when you consider Trump’s record. We saw it time and again on the campaign trail, as he sought to seal the deal with the US public by repeatedly denigrating first Joe Biden and then Kamala Harris. Which begs the question, in seeking to make a deal to end the war in Ukraine, exactly who he sees as the competition he needs to denigrate: Vladimir Putin or Volodymyr Zelensky?

    Trump has certainly gone out of his way to excoriate the Ukrainian president over the past day or two, both in public and on his TruthSocial platform. He has variously blamed Zelensky for starting the war, called him a “dictator without elections” and a “modestly successful comedian … very low in Ukrainian polls” who “has done a terrible job, his country is shattered, and MILLIONS have unnecessarily died”.

    Putin, meanwhile, takes a rather different view of how to seal a deal with the US president. Far from denigrating Trump, he has set out to charm the flattery-loving president with a view to driving a wedge between the US and Europe, claiming that EU leaders had “insulted” Trump during his election campaign and insisting that “they are themselves at fault for what is happening”.


    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.


    The Russian president will be well pleased with the events of the past week or so. After three years of increasing isolation under the Biden presidency, he’s now back at the top table with the US president – two powerful men discussing the future of Europe.

    For the man who, in 2005, complained that the collapse of the Soviet Union had been “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century, to be back deciding the fate of nations is a dream come true, writes James Rodgers of City St George’s, University of London.

    Rodgers, a former BBC Moscow correspondent, observes that Putin has fulfilled this mission having “conceded not an inch of occupied Ukrainian territory to get there. Nor has he even undertaken to give back any of what Russian forces have seized since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.”

    Not only that, but Putin also appears to have enlisted US support for one of the key objectives that encouraged him to invade Ukraine in the first place: preventing Ukraine from joining Nato. That much was clear from the US defense secretary Pete Hegseth’s speech to European defence officials last week. The views of Washington’s European allies (and of the Biden administration) – that Ukraine’s membership of Nato is a matter for the alliance members to decide with Ukraine as a sovereign state in control of its own foreign policy – don’t appear to matter to Trump and his team.




    Read more:
    Ukraine peace talks: Trump is bringing Russia back in from the cold and ticking off items on Putin’s wish list


    Meanwhile, Trump’s policy volte-face over Ukraine and, more broadly, European security in general has driven a dangerous wedge between the US and its allies in Europe. France’s president, Emmanuel Macron, responded by convening a meeting on Monday of the leaders of what the French foreign minister, Jean-Noël Barrot, described as “the main European countries”. This turned out to include Germany, the UK, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark, as well as the Nato secretary-general and the presidents of the European Council and European Commission.

    Passing over the question of how the leaders of the Baltic states felt about this, given they all share a border with Russia (as does Finland) and presumably are well aware of the vulnerability of their position, the fact is Europe is deeply divided over its response to the situation.

    As Stefan Wolff observes, the Weimar+ group of countries that met in Paris only represent one shade of opinion within the EU. Meanwhile, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, is openly scathing about European efforts to support Ukraine, posting on X: “While President @realDonaldTrump and President Putin negotiate on peace, EU officials issue worthless statements.”

    Wolff, an expert in international security at the University of Birmingham, notes that disrupting European unity is a stated aim of the Project 2025 initiative which has guided, if not Trump himself, many of his close advisers. The past week, taking into account both Hegseth’s meeting with European defence ministers and the subsequent appearance by the US vice-president, J.D. Vance, at the Munich Security Conference, has gone a fair way down the path towards achieving that disruption.

    At the same time, Vance’s lecture to the conference – during which he was heavily critical of Europe as “the enemy within” which was undermining democracy and threatening free speech – will have united most of those present in anger and dismay at his remarks.




    Read more:
    Europe left scrambling in face of wavering US security guarantees


    Constitutional matters

    Trump has declared that Zelensky is a “dictator” because he cancelled last year’s election in Ukraine. In fact, Ukraine’s constitution provides that elections are prohibited during periods of martial law. And martial law has been in force since the day of the invasion on February 24 2022.

    Lena Surzhko Harned, a professor of political science at Penn State University, writes that the delegitimisation of Zelensky is a tactic Putin has been striving for from the very start. The Kremlin has pushed the narrative that there is no legitimate authority with which to negotiate a peace deal, and that Zelensky’s government is “illegitimate”.

    “What Putin needs for this plan to work is a willing partner to help get the message out that Zelensky and the current Ukraine government are not legitimate representatives of their country,” writes Harned. “And into this gap the new US administration appears to have stepped.”

    Despite Zelensky still enjoying relatively strong support in recent opinion polls, an election campaign in the middle of this conflict would be a needlessly divisive exercise. And that’s before you consider the potential for Russian interference, which would be seriously debilitating for a country fighting for its survival.

    Putin knows all this – and he also knows by framing the issue in a way that suggests Ukraine is dragging its feet over peace, he will enjoy a propaganda coup. And that’s what he is doing, with the apparent support of the US president.




    Read more:
    In pushing for Ukraine elections, Trump is falling into Putin-laid trap to delegitimize Zelenskyy


    Another way Putin hopes to discredit the Ukrainian leadership is by deliberately excluding it from the talks – at least for the present. Zelensky has said, with the support of his European allies, that there can be no deal without Ukrainian participation.

    It’s easy to see why Zelensky and his allies are so adamant that they should be involved, writes Matt Fitzpatrick, a professor of international history at Flinders University. History is littered with examples of large powers getting together to decide the fate of smaller nations that have no agency in the division.

    Three such shameful debacles determined the history of much of the 20th century – and not in a good way. The Sykes-Picot agreement divided the Middle East between British and French spheres of influence, and sowed the seed for discord which continues to this day. The Munich conference of 1938, at which the fate of Czechoslovakia was decided without any Czech input, showed Adolf Hitler that naked aggression really does pay. And having failed to learn from either of these, in 1945 the Big Three (Russia, the US and Britain) got together at Yalta to carve up Germany, thereby setting the scene for the cold war.




    Read more:
    Ukraine isn’t invited to its own peace talks. History is full of such examples – and the results are devastating


    Deal or no deal

    One of Trump’s assertions this week has been that Zelensky had his chance to strike a deal and avoid all the bloodshed and much of the territorial loss suffered by Ukraine in the three years of war. Reacting to questions about why Zelensky or any Ukrainian diplomats hadn’t been involved in the talks, he scoffed: “Today I heard: ‘Oh, well, we weren’t invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years … You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.”

    Stephen Hall, who specialises in Russian and post-Soviet politics at the University of Bath, recalls the early talks in the spring of 2022. He says that the idea – also floated in the press by several commentators – that Ukraine should have concluded a peace deal in March or April of 2022 after talks in Istanbul is absurd.

    While there was momentum for peace, particularly on Kyiv’s part, the two sides were a long way apart on issues such as the size of Ukraine’s military and the fate of territories such as Crimea. “Had Ukraine done a deal based on the Istanbul communique, it would have essentially led to the country becoming a virtual province of Russia – led by a pro-Russian government and banned from seeking alliances with western countries,” Hall writes.




    Read more:
    Ukraine war: the idea that Kyiv should have signed a peace deal in 2022 is flawed – here’s why


    And in any case, back then there was scant support among Ukraine’s allies in Europe and the Biden White House for appeasing Putin by offering him concessions in return for aggression. But that’s now history. Trump and his team appear to have already granted the Russian president some of his dearest wishes before the negotiations proper have even started.


    World Affairs Briefing from The Conversation UK is available as a weekly email newsletter. Click here to get updates directly in your inbox.


    ref. Trump’s art of the deal horrifies Ukraine and its allies – https://theconversation.com/trumps-art-of-the-deal-horrifies-ukraine-and-its-allies-250461

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine war: the idea that Kyiv should have signed a peace deal in 2022 is flawed – here’s why

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Hall, Lecturer (Assistant Professor) in Russian and Post-Soviet Politics, University of Bath

    It has been an eventful and, for Ukraine and its European allies, alarming past week or so. First they heard that the US president, Donald Trump, had spent 90 minutes on the phone with his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. In one stroke, Trump upended three years in which his predecessor, Joe Biden, had sought to isolate Russia after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    On the same day, February 12, Trump’s newly installed secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, told a gathering of senior defence officials in Brussels that Europe would no longer be the primary focus for US security policy, and that Ukraine could not hope to regain the territory Russia had illegally occupied since 2014, nor join Nato.

    Hegseth added that not only would the US not contribute to any peacekeeping force in Ukraine in the event of a peace deal, but that any European peacekeeping operation would not be done under the protection of Nato’s Article 5.

    This was soon followed by the US vice-president, J.D. Vance, telling the Munich Security Conference that it was Europe, not Russia or China, that was the main security threat – the “enemy within” that fostered anti-democratic practices and sought to curtail free speech.

    This week, a US team led by the secretary of state, Marco Rubio, sat down with their Russian opposite numbers led by the foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, to discuss peace negotiations. Ukraine was not represented. Nor was Europe. Following that, and perhaps taking his cue from Hegseth, Lavrov declared that Russia would not accept any European peacekeepers in Ukraine – deal or no deal.

    Meanwhile, Trump has taken to his TruthSocial media platform to repeat several favourite Kremlin talking points. Ukraine was responsible for the war, he said. Its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, was a “dictator” who had cancelled elections, and whose popularity with his own people was now as low as 4% (it’s actually 57%, at least 10 points higher than Trump’s rating in the US).

    Trump also mocked Zelensky’s concern at his country’s exclusion from the Riyadh talks, telling reporters: “Today I heard: ‘Oh, well, we weren’t invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years … You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.”

    This leads us back to the Istanbul communique, produced at the end of March 2022 after initial peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Antalya, Turkey. Some US commentators have suggested Ukraine could now be better off had it signed this deal.

    Istanbul communique

    What happened in Istanbul, and how close Russia and Ukraine were to an agreement, has been hotly debated, with some arguing a deal was close and others refuting this.

    Ukraine reportedly agreed to a range of concessions including future neutrality, as well as giving up its bid for membership of Nato. Russia, in turn, would apparently have accepted Ukraine’s membership of the EU. This concession, incidentally, is still on the table.

    But there were sticking points, primarily over the size of Ukraine’s armed forces after a deal – Kyiv reportedly wanted 250,000 soldiers, the Kremlin just 85,000 – and the types of weaponry Ukraine could keep in its arsenal.

    There were also issues about Ukraine’s Russian-occupied territory, particularly Crimea – this was projected to be resolved over 15 years with Russia occupying the peninsula on a lease in the meantime. Another Kremlin demand was for Zelensky to stand down as president, with the presidency being taken up by the pro-Russian politician Viktor Medvedchuk.

    Negotiations continued through April 2022, only to break down when Russian atrocities were reported in Bucha, a town Ukrainian troops had retaken as part of their spring counter-offensive. But the fact is, an agreement was never really close.

    The UK’s former prime minister, Boris Johnson, has taken much flack over reports that he urged Zelensky not to accept the deal. But there was never a realistic chance this deal would be acceptable to Ukraine. A neutral Ukraine with a reduced military capacity would have no way to defend itself against any future aggression.

    Had Ukraine done a deal based on the Istanbul communique, it would have essentially led to the country becoming a virtual province of Russia – led by a pro-Russian government and banned from seeking alliances with western countries. As for joining the EU, it was the Kremlin’s opposition to Kyiv’s engagement with the EU in 2013 which provoked the Euromaidan protests and led to Russia’s initial annexation of Crimea the following year.

    What next?

    Kyiv signing the Istanbul communique may have quickly stopped the war and the killing. But the Kremlin has repeatedly shown it cannot be trusted to adhere to agreements – you only have to look at the way it repeatedly violated the Minsk accords of 2015, which attempted to end hostilities in eastern Ukraine.

    Further, a deal that rewards Russian aggression by agreeing to its taking of territory and demanding the neutrality of the victim would undermine global security, and encourage other illegal foreign policy adventurism.

    If the Trump administration has the blueprint of a fair peace deal, it’s hiding it well at this point. Instead, European leaders have been put in a position where they must face the prospect of having to fund Ukraine’s continued defence, while coping with a US retreat from its security guarantees for Europe as a whole.

    Either that or, as my University of Bath colleague Patrick Bury wrote on X this week, accept some pretty dire consequences.

    Europe is facing a crisis that it could have prepared for after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. With Trump back in power, the relationship between the US and Europe appears increasingly fractured. But Europe too is bitterly divided over how to approach this crisis.

    Britain and France initially talked up the idea of providing troops as peacekeepers in Ukraine – but Germany adamantly refused to go along with that plan. Both Emmanuel Macron and Keir Starmer have since rethought the idea (although there is a report that the UK prime minister has considered a scheme for a 30,000-strong “monitoring force” away from the ceasefire line).

    The Kremlin reacts to signals. While it was clearly preparing for the invasion in late 2021, Joe Biden’s statement that he would not send troops to defend Ukraine showed the limits to US involvement. A message that Europe is prepared to dispatch peacekeepers to Ukraine now would send a strong signal to Putin – and the Trump administration – that Europe is serious.

    Stephen Hall does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Ukraine war: the idea that Kyiv should have signed a peace deal in 2022 is flawed – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-the-idea-that-kyiv-should-have-signed-a-peace-deal-in-2022-is-flawed-heres-why-250423

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The US has a long history of meddling in Latin America. What’s different about Donald Trump’s approach?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex

    Jimmy Carter, who was president from 1977 to 1981, considered the treaties signed in 1977 to cede control of the Panama Canal to Panama, ending over a century of strained relations, one of the crowning achievements of his administration.

    Today, Panamanians are uncertain whether Donald Trump will abide by these treaties – and are nervous about what could happen next. Panamanian journalists that I have spoken with are increasingly concerned that the US will invade.

    Trump has repeatedly refused to rule out using the US military to seize the Panama Canal, if necessary, despite boasting that he had an impeccable record of not starting any new wars.

    While this appears to be a huge departure in US foreign policy towards Latin America, the US has had a long history of invading, meddling, supporting coups and offering clandestine support to violent non-state actors in the region.

    One historian has noted that the US participated (directly and indirectly) in regime change in Latin America more than 40 times in the last century. This figure does not even take into account failed missions that didn’t result in regime change, such as the US’s orchestrated invasion of the Bay of Pigs in Cuba in 1961.

    When the US is not intervening, its approach to the region has been described as “benign neglect”. During these interludes, Latin America was mostly ignored while the US prioritised other geopolitical interests.

    Return to the old ways?

    But Trump’s latest threats to Panama are a return to the paternalistic era of US foreign policy towards Latin America. This arguably started with the Monroe Doctrine in 1823 — a framework that aimed to protect US interests in the region from European aggression. Latin America essentially became the US’s backyard. At the time, the Monroe Doctrine received some support from Latin American countries that were hoping for independence from Europe and republican forms of government.




    Read more:
    US pressure has forced Panama to quit China’s Belt and Road Initiative – it could set the pattern for further superpower clashes


    But this would change with the increasingly interventionist posture of US president Theodore Roosevelt during his two terms from 1901 to 1909. On November 18 1903, when Panama was just 15 days old, Roosevelt signed the Hay–Bunau-Varilla Treaty , in which the US promised to support Panamanian independence from Colombia in exchange for rights to build and operate the Panama Canal. Reportedly the deal was engineered by a Frenchman, Philippe Bunau-Varilla, and no Panamanians were involved. This was the era of “big stick diplomacy” where the US would muscle its way into getting what it wanted with a series of credible threats.

    During the cold war, Washington’s stance in Latin America became even more interventionist. The US backed authoritarian rule by right-wing military dictatorships in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, El Salvador, Guatemala, Paraguay, Bolivia, Uruguary and Honduras.

    The US government provided organisation, financial and technical support for military regimes that were disappearing, kidnapping, torturing and murdering their political opponents, during Operation Condor in the 1970s. Democratically elected leaders Jacobo Árbenz and Salvador Allende were removed from power with the help of US covert action in Guatemala in 1954, and Chile in 1973, respectively.




    Read more:
    Operation Condor: why victims of the oppression that swept 1970s South America are still fighting for justice


    The US was also responsible for funding and training violent non-state groups such as the Contras, a rebel force which was set up in Nicaragua to oppose the Sandinista government. The US also supported the right-wing Arena government which was accused of setting up death squads during the bloody civil war in El Salvador) in which thousands of civilians were killed.

    With the Carter administration’s human rights-focused foreign policy, the US finally did the right thing when it came to returning the Panama Canal to the Panamanians. To accomplish this, Carter had to work hard to build bipartisan support to see the long-term benefits of improving US-Panamanian relations and improving US relations with Latin America more generally.

    From the US standpoint, the canal was no longer economically important. At the same time, the canal had become an issue of national pride in Panama, with mass student-led protests breaking out on January 9 1964 when Panamanians were barred from flying their national flag in the US-controlled canal zone. The day became known as Martyr’s Day after 21 Panamanians were killed by US troops.

    Relations improved after the Carter-Torrijos treaties were signed. But the US returned to an interventionist strategy when it send nearly 26,000 troops to invade Panama during Operation Just Cause in 1989 – the largest US deployment since the Vietnam war.

    Though the goal to remove Panamanian dictator Manuel Noriega (who had formerly been on the CIA payroll) was achieved, more than 500 Panamanians were reportedly killed. Unofficial estimates suggest there may have been as many as 2,000-3,000 deaths.

    Six months after the 1989 invasion, I went to Panama for the summer, and saw first-hand the destruction caused. Looting had been rampant, with millions of dollars worth of goods stolen. There were concerns that the economy in Colón (Panama’s second largest city) wouldn’t be able to recover.

    The impoverished neighbourhood of El Chorillo in Panama City was overwhelmed by a massive use of firepower, including F-117 stealth bombers, Blackhawk helicopters, Apache and Cobra helicopters, 2,000-pound bombs and Hellfire missiles.

    In spite of the devastation, the US could, at least, argue that it invaded in order to restore democracy in Panama. But fast forward to today and Trump has made it clear that he doesn’t care about democracy and human rights. He does care, however, about increasing Chinese economic influence in Latin America – and this high-profile pushback is actually about bullying the Panamanian government to stop doing deals with Beijing.

    And while the seizure of the Panama Canal would probably make very little difference to the US economy, it would make a huge impact to the economy of Panama. The Panamanian government astutely made important investments to enlarge the canal from 2007-2016, and today the canal’s revenues are worth US$5 billion (£3.9 billion), or about 4% of Panama’s GDP.

    The “America first” agenda fails to understand how long-term alliances work, how soft power works, and the importance of having credibility and a vision. In the past, the US has often been aggressive, assertive and interventionist in Latin America, with Trump it looks like all these qualities are back.

    Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The US has a long history of meddling in Latin America. What’s different about Donald Trump’s approach? – https://theconversation.com/the-us-has-a-long-history-of-meddling-in-latin-america-whats-different-about-donald-trumps-approach-249678

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI: Net Asset Value(s) as at 31 January 2025

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    Volta Finance Limited (VTA / VTAS)
    January 2025 monthly report

    NOT FOR RELEASE, DISTRIBUTION, OR PUBLICATION, IN WHOLE OR PART, IN OR INTO THE UNITED STATES

    Guernsey, February 20th, 2025

    AXA IM has published the Volta Finance Limited (the “Company” or “Volta Finance” or “Volta”) monthly report for January 2025. The full report is attached to this release and will be available on Volta’s website shortly (www.voltafinance.com).

    Performance and Portfolio Activity

    Dear Investors,

    Volta Finance started 2025 on a positive note as net performance reached +1.7% in January while Financial Half Year net performance for Volta settled at 11.4%. Both our investments in CLO Debt and CLO Equity performed positively over the course of the month, benefiting from positive market conditions for risky assets.

    In broader economic news, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged for the first time since it started cutting rates last September. This has led markets to expect that the easing cycle might resume in 2026. In Europe, the eurozone economy showed no growth despite anticipations of a +0.1pp expansion, and Christine Lagarde announced a 25 basis points cut in key European Central Bank interest rates. Although largely backed by the data divergence with the US, it is interesting to note the striking difference in terms of monetary path between the US and the European Union as we anticipate further cuts in Europe.

    Credit markets tightened significantly this month, although we noted heightened volatility in line with broader macro headlines around mid-month. In Europe, High Yield indices were roughly 20bps tighter while US CDX High-Yield tightened by 11bps. On the Loan side, Euro Loans prices increased by about 40cts up to 98.41% (Morningstar European Leveraged Loan Index), while US Loans rose by 28cts to 97.61%.

    The primary CLO markets started strong this year, especially in Europe with New Issue volumes up 120% vs. Jan 24 (down 21% in the US vs. Jan 24). In terms of performance, CLO markets performed in line with US High Yield at +1.4% over the month and better than Global Loans +0.9%. In line with all major rating agencies that expect Loan default rates to go down in 2025 we remain constructive on the CLO asset class and the performance of the underlying loan portfolios this year.

    CLO Equity distributions remained healthy in January, although as expressed earlier, the spread compression in the Loan market has slightly lowered these distributions. Over the last 6 month period, the cashflow generation was c. €27m equivalent of interests and coupons, representing c.19% of January’s NAV on an annualized basis, compared to c. €30m equivalent of interest and coupons received 6 months ago. Refinancing or Resetting CLO liabilities will continue to be a key focus for us in 2025.

    Regarding our portfolio activities, we took profits on a US Mezzanine position as the market was risk-on (c. USD 7mm nominal) while another USD 3mm of US CLO mezzanine debt redeemed at face value.

    Over the month, Volta’s CLO Equity tranches returned a 3% performance** while CLO Debt tranches returned +1.6% performance**, cash representing c.9.0% of NAV. The fund being c.21% exposed to USD, the recent currency moves had a negative impact of -0.1% on the overall performance.

    As of end of January 2025, Volta’s NAV was €279.0m, i.e. €7.63 per share.

    *It should be noted that approximately 0.16% of Volta’s GAV comprises investments for which the relevant NAVs as at the month-end date are normally available only after Volta’s NAV has already been published. Volta’s policy is to publish its NAV on as timely a basis as possible to provide shareholders with Volta’s appropriately up-to-date NAV information. Consequently, such investments are valued using the most recently available NAV for each fund or quoted price for such subordinated notes. The most recently available fund NAV or quoted price was 0.05% as at 31 December 2024, 0.11% as at 30 September 2024.

    ** “performances” of asset classes are calculated as the Dietz-performance of the assets in each bucket, taking into account the Mark-to-Market of the assets at period ends, payments received from the assets over the period, and ignoring changes in cross-currency rates. Nevertheless, some residual currency effects could impact the aggregate value of the portfolio when aggregating each bucket.

    CONTACTS

    For the Investment Manager
    AXA Investment Managers Paris
    François Touati
    francois.touati@axa-im.com
    +33 (0) 1 44 45 80 22

    Olivier Pons
    Olivier.pons@axa-im.com
    +33 (0) 1 44 45 87 30

    Company Secretary and Administrator
    BNP Paribas S.A, Guernsey Branch
    guernsey.bp2s.volta.cosec@bnpparibas.com 
    +44 (0) 1481 750 853

    Corporate Broker
    Cavendish Securities plc
    Andrew Worne
    Daniel Balabanoff
    +44 (0) 20 7397 8900

    *****
    ABOUT VOLTA FINANCE LIMITED

    Volta Finance Limited is incorporated in Guernsey under The Companies (Guernsey) Law, 2008 (as amended) and listed on Euronext Amsterdam and the London Stock Exchange’s Main Market for listed securities. Volta’s home member state for the purposes of the EU Transparency Directive is the Netherlands. As such, Volta is subject to regulation and supervision by the AFM, being the regulator for financial markets in the Netherlands.

    Volta’s Investment objectives are to preserve its capital across the credit cycle and to provide a stable stream of income to its Shareholders through dividends that it expects to distribute on a quarterly basis. The Company currently seeks to achieve its investment objectives by pursuing exposure predominantly to CLO’s and similar asset classes. A more diversified investment strategy across structured finance assets may be pursued opportunistically. The Company has appointed AXA Investment Managers Paris an investment management company with a division specialised in structured credit, for the investment management of all its assets.

    *****

    ABOUT AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS
    AXA Investment Managers (AXA IM) is a multi-expert asset management company within the AXA Group, a global leader in financial protection and wealth management. AXA IM is one of the largest European-based asset managers with 2,700 professionals and €844 billion in assets under management as of the end of December 2023.  

    *****

    This press release is published by AXA Investment Managers Paris (“AXA IM”), in its capacity as alternative investment fund manager (within the meaning of Directive 2011/61/EU, the “AIFM Directive”) of Volta Finance Limited (the “Volta Finance”) whose portfolio is managed by AXA IM.

    This press release is for information only and does not constitute an invitation or inducement to acquire shares in Volta Finance. Its circulation may be prohibited in certain jurisdictions and no recipient may circulate copies of this document in breach of such limitations or restrictions. This document is not an offer for sale of the securities referred to herein in the United States or to persons who are “U.S. persons” for purposes of Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or otherwise in circumstances where such offer would be restricted by applicable law. Such securities may not be sold in the United States absent registration or an exemption from registration from the Securities Act. Volta Finance does not intend to register any portion of the offer of such securities in the United States or to conduct a public offering of such securities in the United States.

    *****

    This communication is only being distributed to and is only directed at (i) persons who are outside the United Kingdom or (ii) investment professionals falling within Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (the “Order”) or (iii) high net worth companies, and other persons to whom it may lawfully be communicated, falling within Article 49(2)(a) to (d) of the Order (all such persons together being referred to as “relevant persons”). The securities referred to herein are only available to, and any invitation, offer or agreement to subscribe, purchase or otherwise acquire such securities will be engaged in only with, relevant persons. Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on this document or any of its contents. Past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.

    *****
    This press release contains statements that are, or may deemed to be, “forward-looking statements”. These forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-looking terminology, including the terms “believes”, “anticipated”, “expects”, “intends”, “is/are expected”, “may”, “will” or “should”. They include the statements regarding the level of the dividend, the current market context and its impact on the long-term return of Volta Finance’s investments. By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties and readers are cautioned that any such forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Volta Finance’s actual results, portfolio composition and performance may differ materially from the impression created by the forward-looking statements. AXA IM does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise forward-looking statements.

    Any target information is based on certain assumptions as to future events which may not prove to be realised. Due to the uncertainty surrounding these future events, the targets are not intended to be and should not be regarded as profits or earnings or any other type of forecasts. There can be no assurance that any of these targets will be achieved. In addition, no assurance can be given that the investment objective will be achieved.

    The figures provided that relate to past months or years and past performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance or construed as a reliable indicator as to future performance. Throughout this review, the citation of specific trades or strategies is intended to illustrate some of the investment methodologies and philosophies of Volta Finance, as implemented by AXA IM. The historical success or AXA IM’s belief in the future success, of any of these trades or strategies is not indicative of, and has no bearing on, future results.

    The valuation of financial assets can vary significantly from the prices that the AXA IM could obtain if it sought to liquidate the positions on behalf of the Volta Finance due to market conditions and general economic environment. Such valuations do not constitute a fairness or similar opinion and should not be regarded as such.

    Editor: AXA INVESTMENT MANAGERS PARIS, a company incorporated under the laws of France, having its registered office located at Tour Majunga, 6, Place de la Pyramide – 92800 Puteaux. AXA IMP is authorized by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers under registration number GP92008 as an alternative investment fund manager within the meaning of the AIFM Directive.

    *****

    Attachment

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI: Haffner Energy and ATOBA Energy collaborate to unlock the SAF value chain and scale the market

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    This strategic partnership secures long-term offtake agreements, unlocking financing and accelerating the scale-up of SAF production.               

     

    Vitry-le-François, France / Lyon, France (February 20, 2025, 6:00pm CEST)

    Haffner Energy, a leading solid biomass-to-clean fuels solutions provider, and ATOBA Energy, a SAF aggregator committed to unlocking the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) value chain by solving the financial dilemma between producers and final offtakers, are joining forces to accelerate the development of SAF projects and facilitate their financing, they announced today.

    France-based Haffner Energy relies on its 31-year experience to design, manufacture, supply, license, and operate proprietary disruptive clean fuels solutions, including critical technology for SAF production, using all types of biomass residues wet or dry, such as agricultural and municipal waste. The company has already announced the development of a couple of SAF projects, notably Paris-Vatry SAF in France, where full scale production is expected to be reached by 2030 when the next stage of the European SAF mandate kicks in. Partnering with SAF aggregator ATOBA will significantly enhance SAF offtake then.

    “We are particularly excited about this partnership with ATOBA, as it will facilitate the financing of our SAF projects, starting with Paris-Vatry. One of the most crucial challenges in securing financing for SAF production facilities is the ability to obtain offtake contracts that guarantee the purchase of SAF at a stable, price for periods exceeding five years. The key advantage provided by ATOBA is that it offers this guarantee while significantly reducing risks and commitments for airline clients. This will facilitate and accelerate their engagement in SAF procurement. As such, it is a win-win model for all stakeholders and we are extremely pleased that ATOBA has identified us as a strategic and unique player in the SAF ecosystem”, said Haffner Energy co-founder and CEO Philippe Haffner.

    Indeed, the SAF market is facing challenges in expanding at the rate demanded by environmental needs and regulatory mandates. While producers need long-term, stable pricing contracts to amortize their investments, airlines seek assurance of optimum market prices in the context of a still-immature industry with diverse competing technologies. This conflict of expectations currently hinders the development of SAF production projects, and ATOBA’s unique business model brings the solution.

    We are delighted to launch an offtake agreement with Haffner Energy, a company that has demonstrated for decades the quality and robustness of its biomass transformation technological and industrial solutions. Haffner Energy plays a key role in unlocking second-generation feedstocks, which are essential for both Alcohol-to-Jet and Gas Fischer-Tropsch SAF pathways. At ATOBA, we strongly believe that a variety of technologies and pathways are required to meet our aviation decarbonization targets, as the best production route and feedstock depend on the specific regional characteristics. Having Haffner Energy in our portfolio of SAF producers is an essential brick in our aggregation strategy, reinforcing our ability to provide diversified, reliable, and scalable SAF solutions to the market”, highlighted ATOBA Energy co-founder and CEO Arnaud Namer.

    Also based in France, ATOBA uniquely unlocks the SAF financial stalemate through its upstream and downstream SAF offtake portfolio management. By offtaking from diversified producers and technologies like Haffner Energy, ATOBA mitigates technological and pricing risks associated with the various SAF production pathways, and enables the closing of long-term offtake agreements among airlines, jet-fuel distributors, SAF producers, and financial institutions, which are essential for scaling the industry.

     

    About Haffner Energy

    Haffner Energy designs, manufactures, supplies, and operates biofuel and hydrogen solutions using biomass residues. Its innovative, patented thermolysis technology produces Logo Blue ATOBA Energy – small Sustainable Aviation Fuel, as well as renewable gas, hydrogen, and methanol. The company also contributes to regenerating the planet through the co-production of biogenic CO2 and biochar. A family-owned company co-founded 32 years ago by Marc and Philippe Haffner, Haffner Energy has been working from the outset to decarbonize industry and all forms of mobility, as well as governments and local communities. Further information is available at www.haffner-energy.com.

     

    About ATOBA Energy

    ATOBA is the midstream Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) aggregator focused on accelerating the aviation industry’s energy transition through solving the financial dilemma between airlines and producers. ATOBA provides long-term SAF contracts to airlines and jet-fuel resellers at optimized market SAF pricing indexes. The company brings high security and competitiveness to the SAF supply chain for its airline partners via offtake from diversified producers and technologies, as well as best-in-class sector expertise. Simultaneously, ATOBA’s aggregation strategy allows the SAF industry to scale by providing producers with long-term offtake agreements that support their Final Investment Decisions for their  SAF production plants. Further information is available at www.atoba.energy

     

    Media relations

    Haffner Energy laetitia.mailhes@haffner-energy.com  tel. +33 (0)6 07 12 96 76

     ATOBA Energy press@atoba.energy  tel. +33 (0)6 11 65 92 74

    Investor relations

    Haffner Energy investisseurs@haffner-energy.com 

    ATOBA Energy investors@atoba.energy tel. +1 310 874 7871    

     

    Attachment

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: UK Chair statement: Ministerial Roundtable on Sudan

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Statement highlighting UK Minister for Development, Anneliese Dodd’s attendance at a ministerial roundtable to urgently address the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian crisis in Sudan.

    On 13 February, the UK Minister for Development, Anneliese Dodds MP, convened Ministers and other representatives virtually from Canada, Egypt, EU, France, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Netherlands, Norway, Qatar, UAE and USA with the UN Emergency Relief Coordinator, Tom Fletcher. The participants discussed how to urgently address the rapidly deteriorating humanitarian crisis in Sudan where over 30 million people are in urgent need of assistance, more than 12 million are displaced and famine conditions have been confirmed.

    The participants agreed on the critical need for both warring parties to adhere to their commitments agreed in the Jeddah Declaration to respect international humanitarian law, protect civilians and facilitate the rapid and unimpeded passage of humanitarian relief both into and throughout Sudan. They expressed concern that only a fraction of aid available has been able to reach those in most need and discussed the importance of all sides lifting the bureaucratic impediments that are unnecessarily blocking or delaying the distribution of aid.

    They took note of other efforts to galvanise international action and attention on the humanitarian situation in Sudan, including the High-Level Humanitarian Conference for the People of Sudan co-hosted by Ethiopia, UAE, the African Union and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development on 14 February that called for a Ramadan humanitarian pause and the launch of the 2025 UN Sudan Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan and the Regional Refugee Response Plan on 17 February.

    The participants re-affirmed their commitment to the Sudanese people and agreed to re-convene at regular intervals to strengthen the international response to the humanitarian crisis in Sudan.

    Media enquiries

    Email newsdesk@fcdo.gov.uk

    Telephone 020 7008 3100

    Contact the FCDO Communication Team via email (monitored 24 hours a day) in the first instance, and we will respond as soon as possible.

    Updates to this page

    Published 20 February 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Global: Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traoré is making waves in west Africa. Who is he?

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Daniel Eizenga, Research Fellow, Africa Center for Strategic Studies

    Captain Ibrahim Traoré is the interim leader of Burkina Faso, having taken over the position following a coup which he led against Lieutenant Colonel Paul Henri Damiba in September 2022. The 37-year-old captain had supported Damiba, his commanding officer, in a putsch earlier that year against former president Roch Marc Kaboré.

    Since Traoré has been in power, Burkina Faso has played a key role in the withdrawal of three west African states from the regional body Ecowas. Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali have formed an alternative, the Alliance of Sahel States. The Conversation Africa asked researcher Daniel Eizenga where the country was headed under Traoré’s leadership.

    Who is Ibrahim Traoré?

    Traoré was born in 1988 in Bondokuy, a small town on the route connecting Burkina Faso’s second city – Bobo Dioulasso – and its fourth largest, Ouahigouya. He completed secondary school in Bobo Dioulasso, then moved to the nation’s capital, where he studied at the University of Ouagadougou.

    After completing his undergraduate education, Traoré joined the army in 2010 at the age of 22. He undertook his officer training in Pô at the Georges Namoano Military Academy, an officer school for the Burkinabe armed forces. He graduated as a second lieutenant in 2012 and served as a peacekeeper in the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission to Mali (Minusma) after being promoted to lieutenant in 2014.

    After his stint with Minusma, Traoré took part in missions in northern Burkina Faso as part of a special counterterrorism unit. He was promoted to captain in 2020 at the age of 32.

    Damiba led a coup against Kaboré in January 2022. He then assigned Traoré as chief of an artillery regiment in the North Central region of Burkina Faso.

    As it became clear that Damiba was losing popularity within the junta, Traoré and a group of junior officers organised a coup. They seized on public and military outrage around an ambush that left 11 soldiers and dozens of civilians dead.

    What has been the response to his rule in Burkina Faso?

    Some media reports suggest that the young captain and his junta enjoy popular support throughout the country. Some have even drawn comparisons between Traoré and Burkina Faso’s earlier leftist revolutionary military leader, Captain Thomas Sankara. It’s true that the two captains did take power at the age of 34. But the comparisons end at their rank and age.

    During the 1980s and nearing the end of the cold war, Sankara came to power as ideological division split the Burkinabe armed forces. Officers supporting Sankara led a coup in 1983. Viewed as a Marxist revolutionary, Sankara attempted to enact political reforms. They included policies to boost public political participation, empower women, address environmental degradataion and reduce inequalities.

    Traoré’s position is much more precarious. Most military officers did not participate in either his coup or the one led by Damiba, underscoring the fragmented state of Burkina Faso’s armed forces. Traoré’s junta has claimed there have been multiple attempts at destabilisation or coups. This highlights the arbitrary means by which power has changed hands and the inherent instability present under junta rule.

    To shore up his position, Traoré has launched a restructuring drive. This has included redirecting revenues from taxes, the mining sector, and other sources of public revenues into defence coffers. He has also mobilised volunteers to fight violent extremists as part of the Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland, a junta-sponsored civilian militia. There are reports that forced conscription has been used to send “volunteers” to the front lines of battle. The conflict data indicate that the strategy is not working.

    Traoré may not be as popular among ordinary people as he is often portrayed. This is inferred from the violent repression of critics, multiple alleged coup attempts as well as the ongoing violence and humanitarian crisis. He has cracked down hard on independent voices. Journalists, civil society leaders, political party leaders and even judges have been targeted by the junta with its forced conscription tactics and other forms of violent repression.

    What about external players?

    The September 2022 coup d’état got the attention of Russian foreign information manipulation and interference campaigns. The campaigns were linked to the shadowy Russian mercenary outfit, the Wagner Group. Other Russian information campaigns employed fake social media accounts that pose as Africans with a genuine interest in Burkina Faso. These accounts promote divisive rhetoric that places blame on France and other western countries for local grievances such as ongoing insecurity.

    Aiming to boost support for himself immediately following the coup, Traoré trained his sights on capturing the anti-French sentiment. He blamed the French for many of the country’s woes and cast Damiba as a close French ally. Within a few months, Traoré demanded the French withdraw its security presence from Burkina Faso altogether.

    Since the French withdrawal, Russian mercenaries have been seen providing protection for Traoré and reportedly supporting operations near the border with Mali. However, only some 100-300 Russian forces have gone to Burkina Faso. This suggests that the focus is on regime security for Traoré and his junta.

    What does the future hold?

    Traoré’s actions have not improved the security situation in the country. There have been at least 3,059 violent events linked to militant Islamist groups since he came to power in October 2022. This is a 20% increase in comparison to two years preceding the coup. The number of fatalities linked to militant Islamist violence nearly doubled from 3,621 in 2022 to 6,389 in 2024.

    The violence has also spread throughout the country to affect nearly every region and increased along Burkina Faso’s southern border. It’s likely that the data is under-reported.

    The junta has claimed to have foiled several coup plots since Traoré’s power grab. A foiled plot came in September 2024 only a few weeks after the deadliest massacre the country has ever suffered. Violent extremists killed hundreds of civilians outside the town of Barsalogho. Civilian fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups have increased from 721 in 2022 to 1,151 deaths in 2024.

    Perhaps more worrying are the civilian fatalities linked to the military or its sponsored militia.

    The violence in Burkina Faso presents an alarming outlook in which the collapse of the country cannot be ruled out. The military has reemerged as the principal political actor. By some counts the military has been directly or indirectly in power for 45 of the 65 years since Burkina Faso became independent.

    All the while, the militant Islamist insurgency embroils more and more of the countryside at great human cost. Some estimates place the number of people displaced by violence as high as 3 million, though the junta will not provide an official figure. That is more than 10% of the population of some 24 million people. Another million or more students may not be in school due to conflict and ongoing insecurity.

    Despite the effort to present Traoré as a bold reformer and saviour, the political, security and economic ramifications from his junta rule will reverberate through Burkina Faso for decades to come.

    Daniel Eizenga has previously received funding from a Minerva Initiative research grant through the University of Florida to conduct research in Burkina Faso towards his Ph.D. Dr Eizenga is currently a research fellow with the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.

    ref. Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traoré is making waves in west Africa. Who is he? – https://theconversation.com/burkina-fasos-ibrahim-traore-is-making-waves-in-west-africa-who-is-he-249875

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Africa: Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traoré is making waves in west Africa. Who is he?

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Daniel Eizenga, Research Fellow, Africa Center for Strategic Studies

    Captain Ibrahim Traoré is the interim leader of Burkina Faso, having taken over the position following a coup which he led against Lieutenant Colonel Paul Henri Damiba in September 2022. The 37-year-old captain had supported Damiba, his commanding officer, in a putsch earlier that year against former president Roch Marc Kaboré.

    Since Traoré has been in power, Burkina Faso has played a key role in the withdrawal of three west African states from the regional body Ecowas. Burkina Faso, Niger and Mali have formed an alternative, the Alliance of Sahel States. The Conversation Africa asked researcher Daniel Eizenga where the country was headed under Traoré’s leadership.

    Who is Ibrahim Traoré?

    Traoré was born in 1988 in Bondokuy, a small town on the route connecting Burkina Faso’s second city – Bobo Dioulasso – and its fourth largest, Ouahigouya. He completed secondary school in Bobo Dioulasso, then moved to the nation’s capital, where he studied at the University of Ouagadougou.

    After completing his undergraduate education, Traoré joined the army in 2010 at the age of 22. He undertook his officer training in Pô at the Georges Namoano Military Academy, an officer school for the Burkinabe armed forces. He graduated as a second lieutenant in 2012 and served as a peacekeeper in the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission to Mali (Minusma) after being promoted to lieutenant in 2014.

    After his stint with Minusma, Traoré took part in missions in northern Burkina Faso as part of a special counterterrorism unit. He was promoted to captain in 2020 at the age of 32.

    Damiba led a coup against Kaboré in January 2022. He then assigned Traoré as chief of an artillery regiment in the North Central region of Burkina Faso.

    As it became clear that Damiba was losing popularity within the junta, Traoré and a group of junior officers organised a coup. They seized on public and military outrage around an ambush that left 11 soldiers and dozens of civilians dead.

    What has been the response to his rule in Burkina Faso?

    Some media reports suggest that the young captain and his junta enjoy popular support throughout the country. Some have even drawn comparisons between Traoré and Burkina Faso’s earlier leftist revolutionary military leader, Captain Thomas Sankara. It’s true that the two captains did take power at the age of 34. But the comparisons end at their rank and age.

    During the 1980s and nearing the end of the cold war, Sankara came to power as ideological division split the Burkinabe armed forces. Officers supporting Sankara led a coup in 1983. Viewed as a Marxist revolutionary, Sankara attempted to enact political reforms. They included policies to boost public political participation, empower women, address environmental degradataion and reduce inequalities.

    Traoré’s position is much more precarious. Most military officers did not participate in either his coup or the one led by Damiba, underscoring the fragmented state of Burkina Faso’s armed forces. Traoré’s junta has claimed there have been multiple attempts at destabilisation or coups. This highlights the arbitrary means by which power has changed hands and the inherent instability present under junta rule.

    To shore up his position, Traoré has launched a restructuring drive. This has included redirecting revenues from taxes, the mining sector, and other sources of public revenues into defence coffers. He has also mobilised volunteers to fight violent extremists as part of the Volunteers for the Defence of the Homeland, a junta-sponsored civilian militia. There are reports that forced conscription has been used to send “volunteers” to the front lines of battle. The conflict data indicate that the strategy is not working.

    Traoré may not be as popular among ordinary people as he is often portrayed. This is inferred from the violent repression of critics, multiple alleged coup attempts as well as the ongoing violence and humanitarian crisis. He has cracked down hard on independent voices. Journalists, civil society leaders, political party leaders and even judges have been targeted by the junta with its forced conscription tactics and other forms of violent repression.

    What about external players?

    The September 2022 coup d’état got the attention of Russian foreign information manipulation and interference campaigns. The campaigns were linked to the shadowy Russian mercenary outfit, the Wagner Group. Other Russian information campaigns employed fake social media accounts that pose as Africans with a genuine interest in Burkina Faso. These accounts promote divisive rhetoric that places blame on France and other western countries for local grievances such as ongoing insecurity.

    Aiming to boost support for himself immediately following the coup, Traoré trained his sights on capturing the anti-French sentiment. He blamed the French for many of the country’s woes and cast Damiba as a close French ally. Within a few months, Traoré demanded the French withdraw its security presence from Burkina Faso altogether.

    Since the French withdrawal, Russian mercenaries have been seen providing protection for Traoré and reportedly supporting operations near the border with Mali. However, only some 100-300 Russian forces have gone to Burkina Faso. This suggests that the focus is on regime security for Traoré and his junta.

    What does the future hold?

    Traoré’s actions have not improved the security situation in the country. There have been at least 3,059 violent events linked to militant Islamist groups since he came to power in October 2022. This is a 20% increase in comparison to two years preceding the coup. The number of fatalities linked to militant Islamist violence nearly doubled from 3,621 in 2022 to 6,389 in 2024.

    The violence has also spread throughout the country to affect nearly every region and increased along Burkina Faso’s southern border. It’s likely that the data is under-reported.

    The junta has claimed to have foiled several coup plots since Traoré’s power grab. A foiled plot came in September 2024 only a few weeks after the deadliest massacre the country has ever suffered. Violent extremists killed hundreds of civilians outside the town of Barsalogho. Civilian fatalities linked to militant Islamist groups have increased from 721 in 2022 to 1,151 deaths in 2024.

    Perhaps more worrying are the civilian fatalities linked to the military or its sponsored militia.

    The violence in Burkina Faso presents an alarming outlook in which the collapse of the country cannot be ruled out. The military has reemerged as the principal political actor. By some counts the military has been directly or indirectly in power for 45 of the 65 years since Burkina Faso became independent.

    All the while, the militant Islamist insurgency embroils more and more of the countryside at great human cost. Some estimates place the number of people displaced by violence as high as 3 million, though the junta will not provide an official figure. That is more than 10% of the population of some 24 million people. Another million or more students may not be in school due to conflict and ongoing insecurity.

    Despite the effort to present Traoré as a bold reformer and saviour, the political, security and economic ramifications from his junta rule will reverberate through Burkina Faso for decades to come.

    – Burkina Faso’s Ibrahim Traoré is making waves in west Africa. Who is he?
    – https://theconversation.com/burkina-fasos-ibrahim-traore-is-making-waves-in-west-africa-who-is-he-249875

    MIL OSI Africa

  • MIL-OSI Europe: European courts provide increased clarity on women seeking international protection, EUAA report finds

    Source: European Asylum Support Office

    In 2024, the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) handed down three landmark judgments providing national authorities with more clarity when assessing applications for international protection lodged by women faced with different forms of gender-based violence. A new EUAA report examines how these EU-level and national court decisions are guiding national practices to shift to a more gender-sensitive approach in international protection.

    The European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA) has published a report examining how courts interpreted the legal grounds to grant international protection to women fleeing violence and systematic discrimination. Over the last five years, there has been a significant legal shift in recognising and protecting this profile of applicants, with three landmark rulings by the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) in 2024 providing clearer legal grounds to Member States’ national authorities, as they consider asylum applications due to persecution or serious harm based on gender.

    In 2024, the CJEU ruled that women who are subjected to systematically imposed discriminatory measures by the State, amounting to persecution, may qualify for international protection on account of their gender and nationality. Already prior to this judgment, some national authorities had adapted their policies following the EUAA’s Country Guidance on Afghanistan of January 2023, which then served as one of the main sources for the judgment of the CJEU. The Agency continues to work closely with Member States’ national authorities to help ensure that this jurisprudence is then reflected in national practices. Courts in Denmark, France, Germany and Luxembourg applied this reasoning after hearing appeals on negative decisions from Afghan women who, were then, granted refugee status.

    The EUAA report highlights how, between 2020 and 2024, European courts have established case law that increasingly acknowledges persecution on account of gender; and, identifies the risk profiles of women who might then be members of a ‘particular social group’, as defined in the recast Qualification Directive. The case law referenced in the report notes that the risk profiles include women fleeing forced marriage, divorced women targeted by honour crimes, victims of sexual violence, women accused of witchcraft, women who have had an illegal abortion and those fleeing female genital mutilation/cutting.

    National courts in Finland, Greece, Ireland, the Netherlands and Portugal also overturned decisions of asylum authorities when they failed to assess the need for special procedural guarantees that aim to ensure that women can effectively participate in the procedure for international protection. The cases highlighted the need to transfer vulnerable women from the border or accelerated procedure to the regular procedure for international protection, with sufficient safeguards in place.

    Background

    The cases presented in the report are extracted from the EUAA Case Law Database, a public database which serves as a centralised platform on jurisprudential developments related to international protection. It contains English language summaries of judgments related to international protection which are pronounced by national courts of EU+ countries, the CJEU, the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR) and quasi-judicial bodies of the United Nations and the Human Rights Committee (CCPR).

    MIL OSI Europe News