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Category: Germany

  • MIL-OSI Europe: REPORT on the implementation of the common security and defence policy – annual report 2024 – A10-0011/2025

    Source: European Parliament

    MOTION FOR A EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT RESOLUTION

    on the implementation of the common security and defence policy – annual report 2024

    (2024/2082(INI))

    The European Parliament,

    – having regard to the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union (TFEU),

    – having regard to Title V of the Treaty on European Union (TEU), in particular Chapter Two, Section Two thereof on provisions on the common security and defence policy (CSDP),

    – having regard to the Versailles Declaration adopted at the informal meeting of heads of state or government on 11 March 2022,

    – having regard to the ‘Strategic Compass for Security and Defence – For a European Union that protects its citizens, values and interests and contributes to international peace and security’, which was approved by the Council on 21 March 2022 and endorsed by the European Council on 25 March 2022,

    – having regard to the national security strategies of the EU Member States,

    – having regard to the Civilian CSDP Compact – Towards more effective civilian missions, approved by the Council on 22 May 2023,

    – having regard to Council Decision (CFSP) 2017/2315 of 11 December 2017 establishing permanent structured cooperation (PESCO) and determining the list of participating Member States[1],

    – having regard to Council Decision (CFSP) 2022/1968 of 17 October 2022 on a European Union Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine)[2],

    – having regard to Council Decision (CFSP) 2022/1970 of 17 October 2022 amending Decision 2010/452/CFSP on the European Union Monitoring Mission in Georgia, EUMM Georgia[3],

    – having regard to Council Decision (CFSP) 2022/2507 of 19 December 2022 amending Decision 2010/452/CFSP on the European Union Monitoring Mission in Georgia, EUMM, Georgia[4],

    – having regard to Council Decision (CFSP) 2023/162 of 23 January 2023 on a European Union mission in Armenia (EUMA)[5],

    – having regard to Council Decision (CFSP) 2024/890 of 18 March 2024 amending Decision (CFSP) 2021/509 establishing a European Peace Facility[6],

    – having regard to Regulation (EU) 2019/452 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 March 2019 establishing a framework for the screening of foreign direct investments into the Union[7],

    – having regard to Regulation (EU) 2021/697 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 29 April 2021 establishing the European Defence Fund and repealing Regulation (EU) 2018/1092[8],

    – having regard to Regulation (EU) 2023/1525 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 July 2023 on supporting ammunition production (ASAP)[9],

    – having regard to Regulation (EU) 2023/2418 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 18 October 2023 on establishing an instrument for the reinforcement of the European defence industry through common procurement (EDIRPA)[10],

    – having regard to Regulation (EU) 2024/1252 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 April 2024 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials and amending Regulations (EU) No 168/2013, (EU) 2018/858, (EU) 2018/1724 and (EU) 2019/1020[11],

    – having regard to the Commission proposal of 18 April 2023 for a regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council laying down measures to strengthen solidarity and capacities in the Union to detect, prepare for and respond to cybersecurity threats and incidents (COM(2023)0209),

    – having regard to the joint communication from the Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of 10 March 2023 on a European Union Space Strategy for Security and Defence (JOIN(2023)0009),

    – having regard to Commission Recommendation (EU) 2023/2113 of 3 October 2023 on critical technology areas for the EU’s economic security for further risk assessment with Member States[12],

    – having regard to the annual financing decision, constituting the first part of the annual work programme for the implementation of the European Defence Fund for 2024, adopted by the Commission on 21 June 2023 (C(2023)4252),

    – having regard to the Council conclusions of 22 January 2018 on the Integrated Approach to External Conflicts and Crises and of 24 January 2022 on the European security situation,

    – having regard to the Granada Declaration adopted at the informal meeting of heads of state or government on 6 October 2023,

    – having regard to the Council conclusions of 21 February 2022 extending and enhancing the implementation of the Coordinated Maritime Presences Concept in the Gulf of Guinea,

    – having regard to the European Council conclusions of 21 and 22 March 2024, concerning the decision to open accession negotiations with Bosnia and Herzegovina,

    – having regard to the Council conclusions of 27 May 2024 on EU security and defence,

    – having regard to the joint communication from the Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of 10 November 2022 entitled ‘Action plan on military mobility 2.0’ (JOIN(2022)0048),

    – having regard to the joint communication from the Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of 18 May 2022 on the Defence Investment Gaps Analysis and Way Forward (JOIN(2022)0024),

    – having regard to the joint communication from the Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of 5 March 2024 entitled ‘A new European Defence Industrial Strategy: Achieving EU readiness through a responsive and resilient European Defence Industry’ (JOIN(2024)0010),

    – having regard to the report by the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy of 20 June 2024 entitled ‘Common Foreign and Security Policy Report – Our priorities in 2024’,

    – having regard to the political guidelines for the next European Commission 2024-2029, by the candidate for European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, of 18 July 2024, entitled ‘Europe’s choice’,

    – having regard to the report by Enrico Letta entitled ‘Much more than a market’ and in particular the section on ‘Promoting peace and enhancing security: towards a Common Market for the defence industry’, published in April 2024,

    – having regard to the report by Mario Draghi of 9 September 2024 on the future of European competitiveness and Chapter Four thereof on increasing security and reducing dependencies,

    – having regard to the report by Sauli Niinistö of 30 October 2024 entitled ‘Safer Together: Strengthening Europe’s Civilian and Military Preparedness and Readiness’,

    – having regard to the security and defence partnerships respectively signed on 21 May 2024 by the EU and Moldova, and on 28 May 2024 by the EU and Norway,

    – having regard to the Charter of the United Nations, in particular Article 2(4) thereof on prohibiting the use of force and of Article 51 on the inherent right to individual and collective self-defence,

    – having regard to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS),

    – having regard to UN Security Council Resolutions 1325 (2000) of 31 October 2000, 1889 (2009) of 5 October 2009, 2122 (2013) of 18 October 2013, 2242 (2015) of 13 October 2015 and 2493 (2019) of 29 October 2019 on Women, Peace and Security, and Resolutions 2250 (2015) of 9 December 2015, 2419 (2018) of 6 June 2018 and 2535 (2020) of 14 July 2020 on Youth, Peace and Security,

    – having regard to UN General Assembly Resolution 70/1 of 25 September 2015 entitled ‘Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development’,

    – having regard to the Pact for the Future and Chapter Two thereof on international peace and security, adopted on 23 September 2024 by the heads of state or government of the UN member states,

    – having regard to the North Atlantic Treaty,

    – having regard to the Madrid Summit Declaration adopted by the heads of state or government of NATO at the North Atlantic Council meeting in Madrid on 29 June 2022,

    – having regard to the NATO 2022 Strategic Concept and the NATO 2023 Vilnius Summit Communiqué,

    – having regard to the three joint declarations on EU-NATO cooperation signed on 8 July 2016, 10 July 2018 and 10 January 2023,

    – having regard to the ninth progress report on the implementation of the common set of proposals endorsed by EU and NATO Councils on 6 December 2016 and 5 December 2017, submitted jointly by the Vice-President of the Commission / High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (VP/HR) and the NATO Secretary General to the Council of the EU and the NATO Council on 13 June 2024,

    – having regard to the Washington Summit Declaration issued by the heads of state or government of NATO participating in the North Atlantic Council meeting in Washington on 10 July 2024,

    – having regard to its recommendation of 8 June 2022 on the EU’s Foreign, Security and Defence Policy after the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine[13],

    – having regard to its recommendation of 23 November 2022 concerning the new EU strategy for enlargement[14],

    – having regard to its resolution of 23 November 2022 on recognising the Russian Federation as a state sponsor of terrorism[15],

    – having regard to its resolution of 1 June 2023 on foreign interference in all democratic processes in the European Union, including disinformation[16],

    – having regard to its resolution of 28 February 2024 on the implementation of the common security and defence policy – annual report 2023[17],

    – having regard to its resolution of 29 February 2024 on the need for unwavering EU support for Ukraine, after two years of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine[18],

    – having regard to its resolution of 17 July 2024 on the need for the EU’s continuous support for Ukraine[19],

    – having regard to its resolution of 19 September 2024 on continued financial and military support to Ukraine by EU Member States[20],

    – having regard to its resolution of 17 January 2024 on the security and defence implications of China’s influence on critical infrastructure in the European Union[21],

    – having regard to its position of 22 October 2024 on the proposal for a regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council establishing the Ukraine Loan Cooperation Mechanism and providing exceptional macro-financial assistance to Ukraine[22],

    – having regard to its resolution of 24 October 2024 on the misinterpretation of UN resolution 2758 by the People’s Republic of China and its continuous military provocations around Taiwan[23],

    – having regard to Ukraine’s victory plan presented by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, to the European Council on 17 October 2024,

    – having regard to Rule 55 of its Rules of Procedure,

    – having regard to the report of the Committee on Foreign Affairs (A10-0011/2025),

    A. whereas this past year has been marked by a decline in global peace and security, resulting, inter alia, from conflict, geopolitical rivalry, growing militarisation, terrorism and hybrid threats, as assessed by the Normandy Index 2024[24];

    B. whereas Russia’s ongoing war of aggression against Ukraine, continued armament efforts and armaments cooperation with other authoritarian powers far surpassing European stocks and production capacities, and the Russian regime’s choice to undermine the rules-based international order and the security architecture of Europe and to wage war on European countries or seek to destabilise them in order to realise its imperialist vision of the world, poses the most serious and unprecedented threat to world peace, as well as to the security and territory of the EU and its Member States; whereas Russia currently produces three million artillery shells per year, while the EU’s declared ambition within its first European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) aims for a production capacity of 2 million shells per year by the end of 2025; whereas the Russian regime is strengthening its ties with the autocratic leadership of China, Iran and North Korea to achieve its objectives;

    C. whereas the EU is also facing the most diverse and complex range of non-military threats since its creation, exacerbated by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, including, inter alia, foreign information manipulation and interference (FIMI), cyberattacks, economic pressure, food and energy blackmail, instrumentalisation of migration and subversive political influence;

    D. whereas Russia illegally invaded and annexed Crimea and the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine; whereas Ukraine needs to be provided with the necessary military capabilities for as long as it takes for Ukraine to achieve a decisive military victory, end Russia’s illegal war of aggression, restore its sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders and deter any future aggression; whereas Ukraine, in defending itself, is also protecting and fighting for European values and core security interests; whereas Russia is still illegally occupying the Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions of Georgia and the Transnistria region of Moldova;

    E. whereas, driven by the ambition to become a global superpower, China is eroding the rules-based international order by increasingly pursuing assertive foreign and hostile economic and competition policies and exporting dual-use goods employed by Russia on the battlefield against Ukraine, thereby threatening European interests; whereas China is also heavily arming itself militarily, using its economic power to quash criticism worldwide, and is striving to assert itself as the dominant power in the Indo-Pacific region; whereas China, by intensifying its confrontational, aggressive and intimidating actions against some of its neighbours, particularly in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, poses a risk to regional and global security;

    F whereas China has, for many years, promoted an alternative narrative, challenging human rights, democratic values and open markets in multilateral and international forums; whereas China’s increasing influence in international organisations has impeded positive progress and further excluded Taiwan from rightful and meaningful participation in these organisations;

    G. whereas the EU’s security environment has deteriorated not only in Eastern Europe, but also in its southern neighbourhood and beyond;

    H. whereas the despicable terrorist attacks by Hamas against Israel, the ongoing war in Gaza and the military operations against the Hezbollah on Lebanese territory have significantly increased the danger of a regional military confrontation in the Middle East, and the risk of escalation in the region is at its highest in decades; whereas the ongoing attacks in the Red Sea launched from the Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen, with the support of Iran, and the hijackings of commercial vessels by Somali pirates, from the Red Sea to the northwestern Indian Ocean, pose a significant threat to freedom of navigation, maritime security and international trade; whereas additional attacks by various Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria are further increasing the risk of regional escalation; whereas the EU has launched its own military operation, EUNAVFOR ASPIDES, to improve the security situation in the area;

    I. whereas the eastern neighbourhood and Western Balkan countries face increasingly diverse threats to their security and are being negatively affected by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, as well as the increased assertiveness of regional and global actors, such as China; whereas Kosovo and the EU-facilitated Belgrade-Pristina Dialogue face, in particular, threats of destabilisation;

    J. whereas the disastrous impact of past or ongoing wars, instability, insecurity, poverty and climate change in the Sahel region, northeast Africa and Libya, poses serious risks to EU security and its economic and trade interests; whereas the instability and insecurity in the southern neighbourhood and the Sahel region are closely interlinked with and remain an ongoing challenge for EU external border management; whereas the EU Border Assistance Mission in Libya and EUNAVFOR  MED Operation IRINI are contributing to sustainable peace, security and stability by implementing the arms embargo, fighting illicit weapons and human trafficking, and training the Libyan coastguard;

    K. whereas a part of Cyprus, an EU Member State, still remains under illegal occupation by Türkiye;

    L. whereas the Arctic region is becoming increasingly important for geopolitics, economic development and transport, while, at the same time, it is facing challenges linked to climate change, militarisation and migration;

    M. whereas past underinvestment in defence by EU Member States has led to an investment gap; whereas the Member States have agreed on more, better and smarter defence spending; whereas in 2024, 16 EU Member States that are also NATO allies, compared to 9 in 2023, were expected to exceed the NATO guidelines to spend at least 2 % of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defence; whereas an increasing number of experts consider defence investments of 3 % of GDP to be a necessary objective in the light of the direct threat that Russia poses to the EU and its Member States;

    N. whereas in 2023, Parliament and the Council concluded agreements on the European defence industry reinforcement through a common procurement act (EDIRPA) and the Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), which, as short-term and emergency measures, aim to encourage the joint procurement of defence products, ramp up the European defence industry’s production capacity, replenish depleted stocks and reduce fragmentation in the defence-procurement sector;

    O. whereas in 2024, the Commission issued proposals for establishing a European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and a European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), addressing, in particular, the upgrade of EU security and defence capabilities;

    P. whereas building defence capabilities and adapting them to military needs requires a common strategic culture, shared threat perception and solutions to be developed and combined in doctrine and concepts;

    Q. whereas the exception to the EU budget funding principle set out in Article 41(2) TEU applies to expenditure arising from operations having military or defence implications only; whereas in all other cases, the VP/HR, together with the Commission, where necessary, should propose that CFSP- or CSDP-related expenditure be financed through the EU budget; whereas Articles 14(1) and 16(1) TEU establish a balance between Parliament and the Council as regards their budgetary functions; whereas the current practice does not reflect this balance;

    R. whereas the Draghi report highlights a combination of structural weaknesses affecting the competitiveness of the EU’s Defence Technological and Industrial Base (EDTIB), and identifies fragmentation, insufficient public defence spending and limited access to financing; whereas the European Investment Bank’s (EIB) lending policy excludes the financing of ammunition and weapons, as well as equipment or infrastructure exclusively dedicated to military and police use;

    S. whereas the report by Mr Niinistö underlines the fact that the EU and its Member States are not yet fully prepared for the most severe cross-sectoral or multidimensional crisis scenarios, especially given the further deteriorating external environment; whereas the report states that many threats are already taking place continuously; whereas it insists that preparedness is needed to signal to potential adversaries that they will not be able to outlast the EU; whereas it deplores the fact that the Union lacks a common plan in the event of armed aggression and underlines that the EU needs to rethink the way it defines its security; whereas it underlines the importance of the EU being ready to act in support of a Member State in the event of external armed aggression and of further unlocking the EU’s potential for enhanced civil-military cooperation and dual-use infrastructure and technologies, through optimising the use of scarce resources and strengthening coordination mechanisms for the most severe crisis situations;

    T. whereas the integration of artificial intelligence into the security and defence domain, including weapon technologies, impacts military operations by enabling autonomous systems, predictive analytics and enhanced decision-making capabilities to play a significant role in battlefields; whereas this development presents both unprecedented opportunities and profound risks;

    U. whereas CSDP has 13 civilian missions, 8 military operations and 1 civilian-military mission under way, with around 5 000 personnel deployed on three continents; whereas reviews by the European External Action Service (EEAS) state that these missions and operations persistently suffer from Member States not delivering on their pledges to provide sufficient military or civilian personnel; whereas they also lack rapid decision-making and suffer from a lack of flexibility and adaptation to the specific local needs on the ground; whereas such obstacles limit the overall effectiveness of CSDP missions and operations; whereas one of the objectives of the Strategic Compass is to reinforce EU civilian and military CSDP missions and operations by providing them with more robust and flexible mandates, promoting rapid and more flexible decision-making processes and ensuring greater financial solidarity; whereas EU missions and operations are often targeted by hybrid threats, including disinformation, jeopardising their effectiveness in stabilising the countries in which they are deployed and, instead, reinforcing pre-existing instability, often benefiting malicious non-state actors;

    V. whereas CSDP missions and operations greatly strengthen the resilience and stability of the European neighbourhood, including in the Mediterranean, the Western Balkans, the Eastern Partnership countries, the Sahel region and the Horn of Africa, by providing services such as military, police, coastguard, border management training and capacity building;

    W. whereas the EU assistance to the Libyan coastguard is provided through the EU Border Assistance Mission in Libya (EUBAM Libya) and EUNAVFOR MED Operation IRINI; whereas the main goal of EUNAVFOR MED IRINI is to support the implementation of the UN Security Council’s arms embargo on Libya; whereas the Council of the EU extended the mandate of EUNAVFOR MED IRINI until 31 March 2025, including the task of training the Libyan coastguard and navy;

    X. whereas the EUFOR Althea operation sets a path towards peace, stabilisation and the European integration of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and still plays a pivotal role in ensuring the security and stability of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region;

    Y. whereas on 17 May 2024, the EU ended the mandate of the EU Training Mission in Mali (EUTM); whereas on 30 June 2024, it ended the mandate of the European Union military partnership mission in Niger (EUMPM) and on 30 September 2024, it ended the ground mission of personnel from the EU Capacity Building Mission in Niger (EUCAP Sahel Niger);

    Z. whereas the EU will allocate EUR 1.5 billion for the 2021-2027 period to support conflict prevention, peace and security initiatives at national and regional level in sub-Saharan Africa; whereas additional support is also provided in Africa under the European Peace Facility (EPF), which enables the EU to provide all kinds of equipment and infrastructure to the armed forces of EU partners;

    AA. whereas the EU and its Member States are facing increasing hybrid attacks on their soil, including FIMI, political infiltration and sabotage, aimed at undermining sound political debate and the trust of EU citizens in democratic institutions, as well as creating divisions in European societies and between nations; whereas in the years to come, hybrid threats will involve increased use of the systematic combination of information warfare, agile force manoeuvre, mass cyberwarfare and emerging and disruptive technologies, from seabed to space, with the deployment of advanced space-based surveillance and strike systems, all of which will be enabled by advanced AI, quantum computing, increasingly ‘intelligent’ drone swarm technologies, offensive cyber capabilities, hypersonic missile systems and nanotech- and bio-warfare; whereas Russia and China have demonstrated increased use of hybrid tools to undermine the security and stability of the EU;

    AB. whereas the Russian Federation makes use of private military companies (PMCs), such as Africa Corps and the Wagner Group, as part of a hybrid warfare toolbox to maintain plausible deniability while exerting influence in various regions and gaining access to natural resources and critical infrastructure; whereas Africa Corps and the Wagner Group have reportedly committed atrocities in Ukraine, Mali, Libya, Syria and the Central African Republic; whereas the Russian Federation has reinforced anti-European sentiments, especially in countries with a strong European presence or hosting CSDP missions;

    AC. whereas on 7 March 2024, Sweden joined NATO as a new member, following Finland which joined in 2023; whereas security and defence cooperation with partners and allies is crucial to the EU’s ambition of becoming an international security provider and constitutes an integral pillar of the CSDP; whereas cooperation with the UN, NATO, the African Union, the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), as well as numerous allies and like-minded partners such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Norway, Ukraine, Moldova, the Western Balkan countries, Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and certain Latin American countries, among others, is crucial to the successful implementation of the CSDP;

    The consequences of a changing geopolitical paradigm for European security

    1. Stresses the seriousness of the threats to the security of the European continent, which have reached a level unprecedented since the Second World War; expresses deep concern at the rise of geopolitical fractures, new and renewed imperialist ambitions for domination by authoritarian powers, systemic rivalry of great powers, nationalist unilateralism, the spread of terrorism, including jihadist terrorism, and the primary and growing use of force and violence by certain malicious actors to promote their political and economic objectives and interests or to resolve disputes;

    2. Believes that the geopolitical theatres in Ukraine, the Middle East and the South China Sea and the Indo-Pacific are increasingly interconnected as Russia and China, in particular, are deepening their ties, and pose significant challenges to global peace and security and the rules-based international order that must be addressed by the international community; highlights the increase in attacks and hybrid threats aimed at undermining democratic values and structures, among other things, during elections, as well as the cohesion of and citizens’ adhesion to European values-based societies and the rule of law; believes that this trend amounts to a paradigm shift, as it reverses the logic of building international security on the basis of respect for international law, a rules-based international order and multilateralism;

    3. Recognises the evolving nature of global security threats and emphasises the crucial role that diplomacy, development cooperation and arms control and disarmament play alongside military efforts in ensuring long-lasting international peace and security; notes, however, the limited impact of diplomatic efforts aimed at building peace and security in recent times; underscores that sustainable global peace and stability cannot be achieved through military measures alone, but require comprehensive strategies that address the key drivers of instability, such as poverty, inequality, governance failures and climate change; stresses that the EU’s Global Gateway initiative and other development programmes should be aligned with security objectives, fostering resilient societies by promoting inclusive economic growth, good governance and human rights;

    The EU’s response: a new era of European security and defence

    4. Emphasises the absolute need for the EU to recognise and meet the challenges posed by the multiple and constantly evolving threats to its security, and, for this purpose, to engage in improved and new policies and actions that enable the EU and its Member States to collectively and coherently strengthen their defence in Europe, in order to ensure the security of all EU Member States and their citizens, as well as enhancing their ability to act at the global level;

    5. Recalls the importance of the EU achieving greater strategic autonomy and defence readiness, as outlined in the Strategic Compass, to ensure that its objectives are aligned with the collective and sovereign interests of its Member States and the broader vision of European security and defence; acknowledges, in this regard, that some Member States have long-standing policies of military neutrality, and respects the right of every Member State to determine its own security policy;

    6. Emphasises the importance of continuing to operationalise Article 42(7) TEU on mutual assistance, ensuring solidarity among Member States, especially those whose geographical position leaves them directly exposed to imminent threats and challenges, and regardless of whether they are NATO members; calls for concrete steps towards developing a true EU solidarity policy, including by clarifying the practical arrangements in the event of a Member State activating Article 42(7) TEU and the coherence between Article 42(7) TEU and Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty;

    7. Notes the overall limited progress and underinvestment in the development of a common European defence capability, industrial capacity and defence readiness since the CSDP’s establishment 25 years ago; notes, with regret, that despite the ambition of framing a common Union defence policy, as laid out in Article 42(2) TEU, concrete steps are still missing;

    8. Insists on the need for a truly common approach, policies and joint efforts in the area of defence as well as a paradigm shift in the EU’s CSDP that enable the EU to act decisively and effectively in its neighbourhood and on the global stage, safeguard its values, interests and citizens and promote its strategic objectives; underlines the importance of presenting the EU as a strong and united international actor, capable of acting more strategically and autonomously, defending itself against potential enemy attacks and supporting its partners, and delivering peace, sustainable development and democracy; stresses the utmost importance of the EU and its Member States continuing to work on creating a common strategic culture in the area of security and defence; underlines the need for the Member States to collectively reflect on the future of their deterrence policies and doctrines, as well as their adaptation to the changing security environment in Europe; stresses, further, that in order to develop coherent foreign and defence policies, the EU must strengthen its democratic and independent structures, decision-making processes and operational autonomy;

    9. Welcomes the objective of the Commission President to usher in a new era for European defence and security, by building a true European defence union; welcomes the appointment of Andrius Kubilius, the first-ever Commissioner for Defence and Space, tasked with working jointly with the VP/HR on a white paper on the future of European defence within the first hundred days of their mandate; stresses the need for the EU and its Member States, acting to define the European defence union, to take priority measures and prepare future actions in order to ensure the defence readiness of the EU, notably with regard to the threat posed by Russia, and to bolster deterrence and enhance operational capabilities as a tool of defence in wartime, while meeting civilian and humanitarian needs, and thus leveraging the concept of ‘dual-use’;

    10. Calls for the EU and its Member States to accelerate their commitments made in the Versailles Declaration and to assume greater responsibility for their defence and security, including by achieving greater strategic autonomy and bolstering defence and deterrence capabilities, in particular on its eastern borders; stresses that NATO and the transatlantic partnership with the United States remain the cornerstones of European collective defence and that the EU and NATO play complementary, coherent and mutually reinforcing roles in supporting international peace and security; stresses the need for EU Member States and the EU as a whole to step up their efforts through increased and targeted joint investments, joint procurement of defence products that are, for the most part, designed and manufactured in the EU, and the development of more joint capabilities, via, inter alia, pooling and sharing, thereby strengthening their armed forces whether for national, NATO or EU operational purposes;

    11. Concurs with the ambition of strengthening the European pillar within NATO and stresses that the development of a European defence union should go hand-in-hand with the deepening of EU-NATO cooperation, making full use of the unique capacities of each organisation;

    12. Stresses the need for close coordination on deterrence and collaboration between the EU and NATO with regard to developing coherent, complementary and interoperable defence capabilities and reinforcing industrial production capacities; stresses that a European pillar within NATO notably consists of jointly acquiring strategic enablers or strategic weapons systems, which are often too expensive for a single member state, such as air-to-air refuelling capability, command and control capability, hypersonic weapons, layered air defence, electronic warfare capabilities and air and missile defence systems; believes that the European added value lies in jointly developing or buying these enablers and systems that individual EU Member States severely lack; points out that EU capability development strengthens the European pillar within NATO and contributes accordingly to transatlantic security; calls for the establishment of a regular conference between the EU and NATO in order to ensure close coordination and complementarity between both organisations and their member states in their efforts to strengthen capability development and armaments, while avoiding unnecessary and dysfunctional duplication; calls on the Commission and the Council to ensure that EU efforts in defence capability development are coherent with the objectives of the NATO Defence Planning Process; calls, further, for all EPF support for the provision of equipment to be carried out in coordination with NATO to increase efficiency and avoid unnecessary duplication;

    Enhancing European security: supporting Ukraine by providing military capabilities in order to end Russia’s war of aggression

    13. Reaffirms its unwavering support for the EU and its Member States to stand in solidarity with Ukraine in the face of Russia’s war of aggression and to provide Ukraine with the necessary military means and in the time it needs to defend itself, repel the Russian Armed Forces and their proxies, end the conflict, protect its sovereignty and restore its territorial integrity within its internationally recognised borders; welcomes the joint security commitments between the EU and Ukraine, and the bilateral security agreements concluded by Ukraine with several Member States; underlines that such commitments and agreements are part of a wider internationally coordinated package of security guarantees for Ukraine, including the G7’s launch of a multilateral framework for the negotiation of bilateral security commitments and arrangements for Ukraine; believes that without decisive EU military support, Ukraine will not be able to achieve victory against Russia; strongly reiterates its call for EU Member States to urgently meet their commitments and deliver weapons, fighter aircrafts, drones, air defence, weapon systems and ammunition to Ukraine, including air-launched cruise missiles and surface-to-surface systems, and to significantly increase the relevant quantities; notes the successful delivery of 1 million rounds of artillery ammunition to Ukraine as agreed in March 2023 by the Council, despite the regrettable nine-month delay; acknowledges the notable advancements in the EU’s artillery ammunition production capacity, which contribute to the EU’s preparedness and ability to support Ukraine; stresses the importance of enhancing Ukraine’s anti-drone capabilities as a critical element in countering aerial threats and maintaining operational security; calls for the provision of specialised equipment and expertise to enable Ukrainian forces to swiftly identify, track and respond to hostile drone activities, ensuring robust protection for both military and civilian infrastructure; calls for the Member States to lift all restrictions hindering Ukraine from using Western weapons systems against legitimate military targets within Russia, in accordance with international law; calls on the Council to commit to transferring all confiscated military equipment or ammunition from EU operations and missions within and outside the EU to Ukraine; reiterates its position that all EU Member States and NATO allies should collectively and individually commit to supporting Ukraine militarily with no less than 0.25 % of their GDP annually;

    14. Calls for the EU and its Member States to support Ukraine in expanding the international coalition in support of its victory plan and peace formula, presented by the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, as the only viable route to restoring Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity on the basis of international law, and thereby holding Russia, its leadership and its accomplices, in particular the Belarusian regime, to account for waging a war of aggression against Ukraine and  committing war crimes and the crime of aggression, and ensuring Russian reparations and other payments for the extensive damage caused in Ukraine; emphasises that all initiatives aimed at ending the conflict must have the support of Ukraine and, ultimately, its people;

    15. Calls on the VP/HR to mobilise more diplomatic support for Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia, using the full spectrum of the diplomatic toolbox, and encouraging EU Member States to consider imposing secondary sanctions; deplores the fact that some components of Western origin have been found in weapons and weapon systems used by Russia against Ukraine, and calls for the EU and its Member States to implement sanctions more rigorously;

    16. Strongly condemns the role that North Korea plays in aiding Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine through the training of North Korean troops and their deployment to Russia to directly participate in the war or support the Russian Armed Forces; also condemns, in the strongest possible terms, North Korea’s supply of military equipment and weaponry actively deployed on the battlefield, and its involvement in sanctions evasion; considers North Korea’s actions a blatant violation of international norms and warns of the dangerous and significant risk of escalation that they pose to Europe and the broader international community; underlines, with serious concern, the risk that North Korea is using the battlefield in Ukraine as a platform to study advanced combat tactics, including drone warfare, with the intention of applying these techniques in potential future conflicts; expresses its outrage at the fact that several other rogue states are actively supporting Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, including Iran, among others; condemns, in this regard, Iran’s transfer of Shahed drones, ammunition and ballistic missiles to Russia, heightening the risk of potential military intervention by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine; firmly believes that the EU and the international community must firmly respond to this with a combination of diplomatic, military and economic measures, and, most importantly, by providing increased support to Ukraine to strengthen its defence against this alliance of rogue states that Russia has built up; underlines the importance of closely liaising with the 2025-2029 US Administration in this regard;

    17. Stresses the importance of the EPF, which has been instrumental in supporting the provision of military capabilities and training to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, while facilitating coordination for all stakeholders through the clearing house mechanism within the EU Military Staff; welcomes the establishment of the dedicated Ukraine Assistance Fund under the EPF and calls for an increase in financial resources for military assistance to Ukraine through this instrument, while also providing a medium-term financial perspective; urges the Hungarian Government to immediately cease its efforts to hinder the EU’s actions in support of Ukraine and to lift its veto on the extension of the EU’s sanctions renewal period and the EPF military support to Ukraine, including the agreed reimbursement to EU Member States for the military aid they have delivered; expresses its deep concern that the veto by the Hungarian Government has blocked the opening of a new tranche of expenditure to support the Ukrainian Armed Forces and has prevented the release of EUR 6.6 billion in partial reimbursement to the EU Member States providing military support to Ukraine; urges the Council and the VP/HR to find innovative solutions capable of lifting these blockages and offsetting these funding cuts; encourages the Member States to develop scenario-based and predictable inventories of military capabilities that can be provided under the EPF to ensure that the short-term provision of capabilities is rapidly sourced from Member States and delivered without delay, and that the long-term provision of capabilities that assist Ukraine in restoring deterrence is provided in a foreseeable time frame, in coordination with non-EU countries, when necessary; appreciates that all military assistance and weapon deliveries under the EPF have been in full compliance with the EU Common Position on arms exports, international human rights law and humanitarian law, while ensuring adequate transparency and accountability;

    18. Highlights the outcome of the NATO Washington Summit, which reaffirmed that Ukraine’s future is in NATO and that the alliance supports Ukraine’s right to choose its own security arrangements and decide its own future, free from outside interference; concurs that both the EU and NATO have demonstrated political unity in solidarity with and commitment to supporting Ukraine; reiterates its belief that Ukraine is on an irreversible path to NATO membership; welcomes the allies’ pledge of long-term security assistance for the provision of military equipment, assistance and training for Ukraine; recognises the crucial role of NATO, EU-NATO cooperation and NATO allies such as the US and the UK, in coordinating efforts to support Ukraine militarily not only through the supply of weapons, ammunition and equipment, but also intelligence and data;

    19. Welcomes the Council’s decision of 21 May 2024, ensuring that the net profits stemming from extraordinary revenues generated by immobilised Russian Central Bank (RCB) assets in the EU, as a result of the implementation of the EU restrictive measures, are used for further military support to Ukraine, as well as its defence industry capacities and reconstruction; also welcomes the agreement reached with the Council, which led to the Council’s decision of 23 October 2024 to adopt a financial assistance package, including an exceptional macro-financial assistance loan of up to EUR 35 billion and the establishment of a Ukraine Loan Cooperation Mechanism that will use contributions raised from the profits of immobilised RCB assets and support Ukraine in repaying loans of up to EUR 45 billion from the EU and its G7 partners; recalls, however, that the mobilisation of this financial assistance will be at the expense of the sum earmarked for EU military support via the Ukraine Facility, which will now only benefit from a maximum of 15 % of the profits from the immobilised RCB assets;

    20. Welcomes the achievements of the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM), which, to date, has trained more than 70 000 Ukrainian soldiers on EU territory, thereby making the EU the biggest provider of military training to Ukraine and significantly contributing to enhancing the military capability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces; takes note of the new goal of training 75 000 Ukrainian soldiers by the end of winter 2024/2025; welcomes the Council’s decision of 8 November 2024 to extend the mandate of the mission for two years; calls for EUMAM’s financial, logistical and human resources to be expanded and adapted to the evolving military training needs of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, including in the air and maritime defence domains, as well as to the requested long-term reform efforts in line with the joint security commitments between the EU and Ukraine; welcomes the Member States’ strong participation in EUMAM, which can be described as a template for future military training missions, advancing deterrence by significantly enhancing interoperability between Member States and partners, and calls on the Member States to demonstrate similar ambition and contributions to other current and future CSDP missions and operations; emphasises that EUMAM should also act as a platform for the exchange of best practices to ensure that European forces also benefit from the lessons learnt on the battlefield by the Ukrainian Armed Forces; welcomes the launch of the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine (NSATU), announced at the NATO Washington Summit, which coordinates the provision of military training and equipment for Ukraine by NATO allies and partners and provides logistical support; stresses the importance of close coordination between EUMAM and NSATU;

    21. Commends the work of the European Union Advisory Mission Ukraine (EUAM) in implementing, in difficult conditions, its newly reinforced mandate; calls for the EU to ensure that EUAM can operate with the adequate financial, logistical and expert personnel to meet Ukraine’s needs, and welcomes the participation of non-EU countries in this regard; stresses the importance of EUAM and its role as the largest EU footprint on the ground, providing strategic advice to Ukraine’s national and state security authorities; highlights EUAM’s key tasks in combating organised and cross-border crimes, restoring public services in liberated territories and supporting the investigation and prosecution of international crimes, building on EUAM’s presence and expertise;

    22. Stresses the importance of cooperation with and the gradual integration of the Ukrainian defence industry into the EU’s defence technological and industrial base (EDTIB) and, to this end, calls for Ukraine’s defence to be fully taken into account in the preparation of the Commission’s new legislative initiatives aimed at strengthening the EDTIB; stresses that concrete steps should be taken towards Ukraine’s integration into EU defence policies and programmes during Ukraine’s EU accession process, including by adapting the Ukrainian Armed Forces to EU capability requirements and involving them in cross-border defence industrial and technological cooperation projects and programmes; welcomes, in this respect, the opening of the EU Defence Innovation Office in Ukraine to identify Ukrainian needs and capacities in defence innovation, facilitate joint initiatives and promote cross-border cooperation between EU and Ukrainian defence industry stakeholders, and to be a focal point for Ukrainian partners, as well as a coordination and information hub; welcomes the ongoing initiatives of several EU Member States to deepen cooperation with Ukraine in the field of defence research and industrial production, and calls for further use of Ukraine’s innovative defence potential to develop weapons and ammunition and to accelerate their production in close cooperation with the EU and other Western partners, using available support mechanisms; calls on the military industries of EU Member States to honour their commitment to establish military production on Ukrainian territory;

    23. Emphasises the need to strengthen demining capabilities within Ukraine to address the widespread presence of unexploded ordnance and landmines, as well as to demine Ukraine’s seawaters in the Black Sea; advocates the allocation of dedicated resources to support comprehensive demining training, including advanced detection and disposal techniques; notes that enhanced demining capacity will not only facilitate safer military operations, but also support the recovery and safety of civilian areas affected by the war;

    Joining forces to increase defence capabilities

    24. Welcomes the ambition set out in the EDIS to achieve the defence readiness of the EU and its Member States and to boost the EDTIB; considers the Commission’s proposal to establish a European defence industry programme (EDIP) vital in that regard; supports the objectives of strengthening EU defence industrial preparedness, improving joint defence planning and further facilitating joint procurement by the Member States in line with the priorities set out in the capability development plan (CDP) and the areas for cooperation identified in the coordinated annual review on defence in order to launch European defence projects of common interest, in particular in strategic capability areas, such as air and missile defence, as well as to ensure security of supply and access to critical raw materials and to prevent shortages in defence production; strongly supports the idea of predominantly using EU-level cooperation in the European defence industrial sector, and supports the concrete quantified targets for cooperation presented in the EDIS, which focus in particular on joint procurement, specifically, inviting the Member States to procure at least 40 % of defence equipment in a collaborative manner by 2030, to ensure that, by 2030, the value of intra-EU defence trade represents at least 35 % of the value of the EU defence market, and to procure at least 50 % of their defence investments within the EU by 2030 and 60 % by 2035;

    25. Highlights the importance of the permanent structured cooperation (PESCO) for improving and harmonising the EU’s defence capabilities; notes again, with regret, that the Member States continue not to make full use of the PESCO framework and that tangible results within the currently 66 ongoing projects remain limited; further notes with regret the lack of information provided to Parliament about the reasons for the closure of six projects and their possible results; points out that the participating Member States agreed to 20 binding commitments in order to fulfil the EU’s ambition in defence; considers it necessary to conduct a thorough review of PESCO projects with regard to results and prospects, with a view to streamlining the current set of projects to a small set of priority projects while closing projects that lack sufficient progress; suggests establishing a priority scheme within PESCO in order to effectively address the identified capability gaps and priorities;

    26. Welcomes the Commission’s proposal for an EDIP; notes with concern the assessment of the European Court of Auditors that the financial envelope of the EDIP is insufficient given its objectives, and therefore reiterates its call to ensure the required funding for defence; stresses that substantial budgetary efforts will be necessary for the EDIP to have a significant effect on military support for Ukraine, the development of a genuine EU defence capability and a competitive EDTIB; welcomes the 2023 revision of the CDP; regrets the limited progress made on capability development since the adoption of the first CDP in 2008; calls on the Member States to significantly increase joint efforts to achieve timely substantial progress by making full and coherent use of EU instruments, including the European Defence Fund (EDF), PESCO and the coordinated annual review on defence, as well as the instruments put forward in the EDIP proposal;

    27. Welcomes the joint efforts undertaken thus far to strengthen the EU’s defence readiness through measures reinforcing and supporting the adaptation of the EDTIB, notably through the EDIRPA and ASAP regulations, and calls for their swift implementation; regrets that the financial envelope of EDIRPA remains limited and points out that the role of ASAP in relation to the ambition of supplying Ukraine with one million pieces of ammunition was restrained by the Council’s objection to its regulatory elements;

    28. Welcomes the efforts and investments made thus far by companies of the EDTIB to reinforce industrial capacity, including with the support of EU instruments; highlights that further and lasting reinforcement of the EDTIB’s capacity requires first and foremost orders by the Member States, which should be conducted jointly in order to ensure the Union’s defence readiness, improve interoperability between Member States’ armed forces and achieve economies of scale, thus making the most of EU taxpayers’ money; calls, accordingly, on the Member States to intensify joint procurement efforts in line with the capability gaps identified in the Defence Investment Gaps Analysis and the capability priorities of the CDP; underlines that effective joint procurement with regard to development projects, especially in the framework of the EDF, requires a joint definition of the military requirements of the respective systems in order to achieve adequate economies of scale; calls on the Commission, in this regard, to draw on the EU Military Committee’s expertise to produce such a joint definition in order to ensure military coherence at the industrial level; calls on the Member States to engage in joint procurement with a view to establishing pan-European value chains by distributing production throughout the Union and thereby increasing the economic attractiveness of joint procurement, while building strategic redundancies into production capacities for greater resilience in the event of an armed conflict; further calls on the Member States and the Commission to aim for a further strengthening of joint procurement mechanisms and sufficient coordination by the European Defence Agency;

    29. Underlines the need to further support the transition of development projects to marketable solutions and welcomes the provision in the EDIP proposal in that regard; deplores the unnecessary and dysfunctional duplication of efforts with regard to the projects on the future main battle tank and the hypersonic interceptor; voices its concern that such duplications counteract the ambition laid out in the EDIS to procure 60 % from the EDTIB by 2035, as scattered resources will extend the time required to achieve marketable solutions, thus most likely leading to procurement from the United States; regrets, similarly, the mounting delays in essential capability projects, notably the Franco-German project on the Main Ground Combat System and the Franco-German-Spanish project on the Future Combat Air System, which also entail the risk of the future procurement of US solutions; stresses that all possible synergies with the EDF should be used, while avoiding the duplication of efforts;

    30. Stresses the need to ensure the coherence of output between respective EU and NATO capability development planning processes; calls for the interoperability of military equipment from EU Member States and NATO Allies to be improved and for industrial cooperation to be fostered by ensuring that future EU legal standards for defence products components and ammunition are based on the NATO standards; stresses that European defence projects of common interest, as defined in the EDIP proposal, should be implemented in close coordination with NATO;

    31. Highlights the vital necessity of overcoming the fragmentation of the EU’s defence industrial landscape and of finally achieving the full implementation of the EU’s internal market for defence products, as the current structure leads to unnecessary duplications and the multiplication of inefficiencies in defence investments and their use, and structurally hampers the strengthening of defence readiness; is concerned that the internal market for defence products is still undermined by insufficiently harmonised application of its rules by the Member States and by disproportionate use of the exemption provided for in Article 346 TFEU; endorses the call for the creation of a true single market for defence products and services, as also presented in Mr Niinistö’s report; emphasises the need for a newly updated and effective regulatory framework aimed at reducing barriers for market entry for defence products, enabling EU defence industrial consolidation and permitting EU companies to fully exploit business potential, encouraging innovation and more and smoother cross-border as well as civil and military cooperation, boosting production, increasing security of supply and ensuring smarter and more efficient public investments in the EDTIB; underlines, at the same time, the importance of maintaining fruitful competition between different competitors and of avoiding oligopolies in which individual providers can freely determine the prices and availability of defence goods; calls on the Commission to present proposals to complete the EU internal market for defence, based, in particular, on an assessment of EU rules for defence procurement and transfer of defence-related products, and on the identification and analysis of limitations and loopholes in the current legal framework; further calls on the Commission to make suggestions for an interpretation of Article 346 TFEU in line with the current reality of an interdependent security architecture in the EU; calls for the implementation of Directive 2009/81/EC on defence and sensitive security procurement[25] and Directive 2009/43/EC on intra-EU transfers of defence-related products[26] (the Transfers Directive) to be improved, and where needed, in the light of the EDIS, for proposals for the revision of these directives to be submitted;

    32. Stresses the importance of ensuring a balanced effort between strengthening the existing armament industrial capabilities of the Member States in the short- and medium-term and supporting research and development (R&D) for new and innovative military equipment and armament tailored to the present and future needs of the armed forces of the Member States and to EU defence capabilities, such as those required by CSDP missions and operations and the EU Rapid Deployment Capacity (RDC); emphasises that priority should be given to keeping and enhancing the technological advantage through targeted strategic projects as a key element in deterrence with regard to our adversaries and competitors; underlines the importance of including all Member States in security and defence strategies, particularly with regard to the development of the defence industry;

    33. Stresses the need to develop an effective EU-level armaments policy that includes the establishment of a functioning and effective external trade dimension, is aimed at supporting partners that face threats by aggressive authoritarian regimes, and prevents arms deliveries to undemocratic aggressive regimes in line with the eight existing EU criteria; stresses the need to overcome the very narrow and national interpretation of Article 346 TFEU in this regard;

    34. Stresses that cooperation with international partners in the defence sector should be limited to like-minded partners and should not contravene the security and defence interests of the EU and its Member States; recalls that dependencies on high-risk suppliers of critical products with digital elements pose a strategic risk that should be addressed at EU level; calls on the Member States’ relevant authorities to reflect on how to reduce these dependencies and undertake an immediate assessment and review of existing Chinese investments in critical infrastructure, including power grids, the transport network and information and communication systems, to identify any vulnerabilities that could impact the security and defence of the Union;

    35. Welcomes the revision of the EU’s Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Regulation; stresses the need to further strengthen FDI screening procedures by incorporating due diligence standards to identify cases where governments of states hold leverage over investors in EU critical infrastructure, such as European ports, and in undersea cables in the Baltic, Mediterranean and Arctic seas in ways that would contravene the security and defence interests of the Union and its Member States, as established within the framework of the CFSP pursuant to Title V of the TEU; underlines that this approach should also be applied to candidate countries; believes that additional legislation is needed to effectively protect the security of European ICT supply chain from high-risk vendors and protect against cyber-enabled intellectual property theft; calls for the creation of a European framework aimed at closely regulating and setting minimum standards and conditions for the export of intellectual property and technologies that are critical to the security and defence of the Union, including dual-use goods;

    Research and development for defence technology and equipment

    36. Supports a significant increase in investments in defence R&D, with a particular emphasis on collaborative initiatives, thereby strengthening the EU’s technological leadership and competitiveness in defence and ensuring a spillover effect in the civilian marketplace; notes, in this regard, that in 2022, the Member States invested approximately EUR 10.7 billion in defence R&D; underlines that technological advancement in critical domains – air, land, maritime, space and cyber – requires stable long-term investment across the Member States to keep pace with rapid global innovation;

    37. Stresses the need for EU R&D instruments and funding to be used as effectively as possible in order to address capability gaps and priorities in a timely manner as laid out in the Defence Investment Gap Analysis and the CDP; calls, therefore, on the Commission and the Member States to align EDF projects and funding with the EU’s urgent capability needs and prioritise them on this basis, and to focus on the most relevant and promising research activities; further calls on the Commission to initiate a thorough review of the EDF in view of a revised follow-up financial instrument for the next multiannual financial framework (MFF); calls on the Commission and the Member States to adopt an approach that incorporates a low energy, carbon and environmental footprint by design when implementing relevant EU funds and to regularly report on progress; recalls that the R&D actions can be directed at solutions to improve efficiency, reduce the carbon footprint and achieve sustainable best practices; welcomes the relevant investment of EUR 133 million provided for in the first annual work programme, but notes that this represents only 11 % of the overall annual EDF budget; recalls the role of NextGenerationEU in climate action and calls on the Member States to use resources from their national recovery plans to invest in the sustainability of their military infrastructure;

    Dual-use and emerging and disruptive technologies

    38. Stresses the need to develop a more proactive role for the EU in sustaining investment in dual-use technologies, which can be applied in both civilian and military contexts, as a means to enhance the EU’s resilience against hybrid and emerging threats; underlines the need to support, in particular, the testing of prototypes of new products and to focus on new technologies in close cooperation with Ukrainian defence and technological actors; underlines the importance of ensuring the financial viability of companies, including small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), that invest in such innovation; advocates the promotion of civilian commercialisation of these technologies as a way to expand market opportunities and strengthen the European industrial base, fostering synergies between military and civilian development;

    39. Highlights the important role that emerging disruptive technologies, such as artificial intelligence, quantum computing, cloud computing and robotics, play in defence; stresses that the development and harnessing of these technologies in defence require further EU-coordinated investment and research efforts so that the defence equipment suppliers in the EU remain at the forefront of innovation; notes that under the current EDF Regulation, with its long implementation cycles, the Commission fails to provide funding to research projects in a timely manner; calls, therefore, for a more flexible and faster approach for research projects on emerging disruptive technologies, reflecting the increasing pace of developments in that field building on the work of the European Defence Agency’s Hub for European Defence Innovation and drawing on the work of the US Defence Advanced Research Project Agency; further calls for the EU to play a leading role in promoting research into the military applications of artificial intelligence and in establishing governance frameworks for the responsible development and use of this technology;

    40. Reiterates its call on the Commission to share with Parliament a detailed analysis of the risks linked to the misuse, by our adversaries, of technologies such as semiconductors, quantum computing, blockchains, space, artificial intelligence and biotechnologies, including genomics, as well as the list of proposed EU actions in these fields, in line with the EU’s economic security strategy; is concerned about the role of Chinese military-linked companies in gathering the genetic data of EU citizens;

    Defence SMEs

    41. Reiterates that defence-related SMEs from across the Union are the backbone of the European defence industry and supply chains and are key to innovation in these areas, and emphasises the need to provide support to SMEs and start-ups, in particular, in the defence and dual-use sector; stresses that the EDIS and the EDIP must ensure a level playing field for all defence industry actors across the Union and promote cooperation between bigger and smaller companies from all Member States, ensuring that the industry will not be dominated by some large companies from a limited number of Member States; encourages the Member States to provide special opportunities for SMEs in the European defence sector to participate in the bidding process through such measures as creating a pre-approved list of companies to facilitate a faster engagement process, introducing private equity firms that invest in SMEs into the procurement process, assisting SME growth through incubation and capital investment, reducing the complexities of bidding for contracts, and implementing internal measures to reform the amount of time taken to process contract details;

    Military mobility

    42. Highlights the importance of developing, maintaining and protecting the infrastructure necessary to ensure the rapid and efficient military mobility of our armed forces across the Member States; underlines the need to ensure the resilience of critical infrastructure that allows military mobility and the provision of essential services; recognises that military logistics can contribute to deterrence by signalling the EU’s overall military preparedness;

    43. Underlines the urgent need to substantially enhance and invest in military mobility, prioritising investments and removing bottlenecks and missing links; stresses, in this regard, the importance of swiftly implementing projects and regulatory measures in accordance with the EU Action Plan on Military Mobility 2.0; supports new strategic investments in civil and military infrastructure, such as ports, airports and highways, which will also allow the smooth transfer of military units and supplies, including rapid reaction forces, heavy equipment, goods and humanitarian aid;

    44. Calls on the Commission to develop an integrated approach to military mobility and logistics that ensures that the Council’s pledge to remove all remaining barriers by 2026 is upheld, and that coincides with much higher EU investment in key aspects of military mobility; further calls for the appropriate EU funding for ongoing and necessary military mobility projects to be secured in the next MFF; calls on the Member States to take further action to simplify and harmonise procedures for military mobility and shorten the timelines for granting permissions so that the Member States can act faster and increase their efficiency of response, in line with their defence needs and responsibilities, both in the context of CSDP missions and operations and in the context of national and multinational activities; encourages the Member States to use the third-country PESCO agreement on military mobility as a template for partner country participation, with an emphasis on tailoring PESCO projects to CSDP mission needs;

    An updated Strategic Compass: promoting a common strategic vision and coherence, and improving EU decision-making on defence issues within the EU institutional framework

    Strategic Compass

    45. Stresses that geopolitical developments and threats have continued to evolve rapidly since the Strategic Compass was adopted by Member States in March 2022; calls, therefore, for a review of the comprehensive joint threat assessment enshrined in the Strategic Compass, from which priorities for EU action should derive; believes that this review exercise should serve to define common views on Europe-wide capability gaps, which should be addressed via bilateral, multinational or EU-level programmes, funds, projects and instruments, and set out the timeframe within which this should be done; calls, furthermore, for the Commission and the VP/HR to present updated measures for the Strategic Compass following this review exercise, if necessary, and for this to inform the preparation of the white paper on the future of European defence; reiterates that the Strategic Compass’s ambitious aims and milestones can only be achieved with corresponding political willingness and action on behalf of the Member States and the EU institutions; stresses the need for coherence and compatibility between the Strategic Compass and NATO’s Strategic Concept;

    46. Calls on the Commission and the EEAS to ensure that the Climate Change and Defence Roadmap is fully implemented and is improved within the context of updated measures under the Strategic Compass; calls for the timeframes for reviewing the Roadmap to be reconsidered and, in particular, for the overall objectives to be reviewed much earlier than 2030; calls on the Member States to develop national structures in support of the objectives; urges the VP/HR to propose to the Member States an action programme composed of priority actions presented in the Roadmap that can be implemented in the short term;

    Defence governance: consolidating the EU institutional framework and decision-making process in defence and security fields

    47.  Suggests that the Council review the institutional settings of its decision-making bodies competent for defence and security, and consider setting up a new permanent decision-making body made up of ministers of defence from Member States, without prejudice to the respective distribution of competences within national ministries in this regard;

    48. Stresses that effective EU-level cooperation in the field of security and defence and swift, coordinated responses to security challenges require coherence between the different structures of the Council and the Commission; stresses, furthermore, the need to prevent overlaps, guarantee efficient public investments, address critical capabilities gaps and develop coherent security strategies with respect to partners, third countries and various regions of the world, both in policymaking processes and in current and future initiatives; notes the unclear division of portfolios and the potential overlap of competences among commissioners in the field of security and defence following the creation of the position of Commissioner for Defence and Space, and therefore calls on the Commission to clearly delineate the competences of the commissioners in this field; invites the Commission to carry out an internal review of its various structures, including the Directorate-General for Defence Industry and Space (DG DEFIS) and the European Defence Agency, and of their mandates in order to ensure complementarity and the efficient administration of current and future initiatives under the CSDP; calls on the Member States and the Commission to dedicate further financial and human resources to the EEAS to ensure that it can effectively perform its role as the EU’s diplomatic service in the light of the highly competitive geopolitical context and the increased demands on its limited capacities in recent years;

    49. Reaffirms that, in order to become a credible geopolitical player, the EU should reform its process for decision-making on the CFSP/CSDP and underlines, in this regard, that institutional reflections on lifting the requirement for unanimity in this process should be considered; recalls that the EU Treaty framework already allows a number of different institutional forms of cooperation in the field of foreign, security and defence policy and notes with regret that the potential for fast action in this field, as provided for in the ‘passerelle clauses’ of the TEU, has been used only in a very limited manner; calls on the Council to consider all possibilities to strengthen and deepen its process for decision-making on the CFSP/CSDP with a view to realising the untapped potential within the Treaties; reiterates its call for the Council to gradually switch to qualified majority voting for decisions on the CFSP and CSDP, at least in those areas that do not have military implications; suggests, furthermore, that the Council pursue making full use of the ‘passerelle clauses’ and the scope of articles that enhance EU solidarity and mutual assistance in the event of crises;

    50. Strongly reiterates its call to strengthen the EU Military Planning and Conduct Capability (MPCC) and achieve its full operational readiness, including through the provision of adequate premises, staff, enhanced command and control, and effective communication and information systems for all CSDP missions and operations; stresses the need to achieve timely results with regard to the MPCC, given the ambition of the Strategic Compass that the MPCC should function as the EU’s preferred command and control structure and be capable of planning and conducting all non-executive military missions and two small-scale or one medium-scale executive operation, as well as live exercises; stresses the need for the MPCC to facilitate synergies between civil and military instruments and calls for joint civil-military headquarters combining civil and military instruments to be set up at European level in the longer term, in order to make full use of the EU’s integrated approach in crisis management right from the strategic planning phase to the actual conduct of the mission or operation; takes the view that the EU’s Civilian Planning and Conduct Capability (CPCC) should consider how to protect a deployed force against multiple hybrid threats and conduct advanced operations at a far higher level of risk than in current contexts; calls on the Commission, the EEAS, the MPCC, the CPCC, the EU Military Committee and the EU Military Staff to foster a new culture of understanding between civilian and military partners, develop interagency cooperation and ensure the transfer of best practices in mission planning and the associated concepts, including by developing a model for generating and sharing best practices;

    51. Reiterates its full support for the Rapid Deployment Capacity (RDC) to achieve full operational capability in the first half of 2025 at the latest, with at least 5 000 troops available for rescue and evacuation tasks, initial entry and stabilisation operations or the temporary reinforcement of missions; notes that EU Battlegroups, which have never been deployed despite being operational since 2007, will be an integral part of the wider EU RDC framework; welcomes the planning and realisation of live exercises within the framework of the RDC and encourages the continuation of such initiatives;

    52. Considers the RDC to be a key element for achieving the EU’s level of ambition and believes that additional troops and force elements should gradually be assigned to it, with reference to the Helsinki Headline Goal of 1999; believes that it would make sense to use the White Paper process to launch a discussion about the creation of additional permanent multinational EU military units that could fulfil complementary tasks to the RDC; highlights the need to engage further with NATO on the establishment of the RDC, in line with the principle of the single set of forces;

    53. Reiterates its call on the Member States to consider the practical aspects of implementing Article 44 TEU during the operationalisation of the RDC, as well as in other relevant CSDP missions, in order to enable a group of willing and capable Member States to plan and carry out a mission or operation within the EU framework, thereby facilitating the swift activation of the RDC; calls on the Member States to commit to substantially narrowing critical gaps in strategic enablers in a timely manner, in particular those linked to the RDC, such as strategic airlift, secure communications and information systems, medical assets, cyber-defence capabilities and intelligence and reconnaissance; calls on the Commissioner for Defence and Space to consider including, in his proposed European defence projects of common interest, initiatives aimed at providing the necessary strategic enablers that would facilitate CSDP missions and operations and the RDC;

    Increasing resources dedicated to the EU common security and defence policy

    54. Welcomes the increased budgets and investment in defence by Member States and the increase, albeit modest, in the EU budget for the CSDP in 2024; strongly believes that, in the light of unprecedented security threats, all EU Member States should urgently reach a level of defence spending, as a proportion of their GDP, that is significantly higher than NATO’s current target of 2 %; acknowledges that 23 of the 32 NATO Allies, including 16 countries that are members of both the EU and NATO, were expected to meet NATO’s spending target of devoting 2 % of their GDP to defence expenditure by the end of 2024; points out that this has increased sixfold since 2014, when this target was pledged; notes that the EU’s current budget for security and defence given the current geopolitical upheaval and Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, is not equal to the challenges to be met in the short and long term; recommends, in the light of the estimated need for EUR 500 billion of defence investment by 2035 and on the basis of continuous analysis of capability needs and gaps, that the Member States further increase defence investments, in particular for the joint procurement of defence capabilities, and fully supports the targets set under the EDIS in this respect;

    55. Calls on the Commission and the Member States to initiate an open discussion on the basis of among other things, the recommendations presented in the reports by Mr Draghi and Mr Niinistö, including increasing the resources allocated to security and defence in the next MFF and exploring all effective funding options to this end, and pooling parts of national defence budgets at EU level in order to generate economies of scale; further calls on the Member States to amend the EPF financing process to ensure adequate and sustainable support for partners and allies, while also aligning with CSDP missions and operations; calls for a strategy to be devised with the aim of creating centres of excellence in different regions of the EU, without duplicating NATO’s work in these fields, in order to promote innovation and the participation of all Member States, ensuring that the capabilities and specialised knowledge of each Member State contribute to a more cohesive and integrated defence industrial base;

    56. Recalls that the EU’s objectives of solidarity, cohesion and convergence also apply to defence; stresses that the financial means needed to rebuild and expand our defence capabilities in the decade to come will have a significant impact on the soundness and sustainability of public finances, and therefore requires cooperation and coordination at EU level through a genuine defence economic policy; underlines that increases in defence investment should not compete with other investment priorities, including social cohesion; further recalls that financing orientations should be anchored in a whole-of-society approach to resilience and therefore need to be broadly supported by European citizens, and that this support needs be sustainable in the long term; stresses that the financial burden must therefore be shared fairly, especially by profitable companies that already benefit from public participation or state aids; emphasises, furthermore, that public spending should be complemented by increased private funding; calls on the Commission to reflect upon possible fiscal avenues that would allow a fairer distribution of the financial burden and limit competition disturbances in the EDTIB induced by state aids and market-distorting tendering processes;

    57. Calls for the next MFF to genuinely provide the means for a defence union; supports proposals to provide massive EU financial investment in European defence and to stimulate research and technological innovation and dual-use projects in the European defence industry, thereby strengthening its competitiveness and promoting advances that contribute both to security and to sustainable economic growth; underlines that defence investment from the EU budget should only complement, but not replace, financial efforts by the Member States, especially with regard to the ambition of countries that are members of both the EU and NATO to invest 2 % of their GDP in defence; invites the Member States to bring forward the re-assessment of the scope and definition of common costs, to enhance solidarity and stimulate participation in CSDP military missions and operations, and of exercise-related costs, in line with the Strategic Compass;

    58. Is concerned about the lack of much-needed private financing for the EDTIB, particularly for SMEs, which may derive from a lack of long-term government contracts or from an overly narrow interpretation of environmental, social and governance criteria;  welcomes, therefore, the clarification provided by the European Securities and Market Authority on 14 May 2024 to the effect that only companies involved in weapons banned under international law are automatically excluded from accessing funds; welcomes the proposals made in Mr Niinistö’s report to avoid fragmentation in defence spending, combine relevant funding streams and trigger more private-sector investment; calls on the Commission to assess the recommendations and come up with concrete proposals; highlights the need for the defence industry to get better access to capital markets;

    EIB lending policy for the defence sector

    59. Stresses the importance of access for the defence sector to the loans provided by the EIB as a catalyst for private investment in the European defence industry; welcomes the further extension of the EIB’s eligibility criteria to dual-use goods and calls on the EIB to take further measures in this regard; stresses that given that the EIB’s objective of promoting the development of the EU and supporting its policies, in particular defence policy and the strengthening of the EDTIB, in line with Article 309 TFEU, the EIB should further review its lending policy and continuously adapt it; calls on the EIB to conduct a review of the impact of the extension of its dual-use goods policy and to reform its eligibility list as appropriate so that ammunition and military equipment that go beyond dual-use application are no longer excluded from EIB financing; welcomes the EIB’s 2022 Strategic European Security Initiative aimed at supporting dual-use research, development and innovation, security infrastructure and technology projects focused on cybersecurity, New Space, artificial intelligence and quantum technologies; 

    Contributing more effectively to global security through EU common security and defence policy and strengthening the role of the EU as a security actor

    De-escalation, preventing wars and supporting conflict resolution

    60. Expresses its very strong concern about and condemnation of China’s support to Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine, in particular through cooperation with Russia’s military industrial and technological base, the exportation of dual-use goods to Russia and the ongoing involvement of China-based companies in sanctions evasion and circumvention; expresses, in this regard, serious concern about recent reports claiming that China is producing long-range attack drones for use by Russia in its war of aggression against Ukraine, and demands that if China continues to support Russia’s armament efforts, this must have serious consequences for the EU’s external policy towards China; deplores the ‘no limits’ partnership between Russia and China and expresses serious concern about the renewed commitment by China and Russia to further strengthen their ties; welcomes the Council’s decision to impose sanctions on Chinese companies for their support for Russia’s war in Ukraine;

    61. Is deeply concerned about China’s increasing investments in military capabilities and the militarisation of its supply chains to bolster its industry while taking advantage of the political and economic opportunities created by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine; is also deeply concerned about the effect that European dependencies on China have on the credibility of the Member States’ ability to safeguard their national security and of the ability of the EU as a whole to effectively criticise and counter China’s economic coercion, possible further escalation with Taiwan and support to Russia; calls on the Commission and the Member States to seriously implement a policy of ‘de-risking’ with the aim of managing the risks coming from economic and technological engagement with China; calls, in this regard, for the risks posed by Chinese suppliers in EU critical infrastructure to be addressed, and for no EU funds or subsidies to be directed to advancing the position of these suppliers in Europe;

    62. Strongly condemns China’s unwarranted military exercises of 14 October 2024 around Taiwan; condemns, furthermore, the increasing number of hostile acts being conducted by China against Taiwan, including cyberattacks, influence campaigns, the entry of Chinese warplanes into Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone and the severing of subsea cables; reaffirms its strong commitment to preserving the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and underscores that any attempt to unilaterally change it, particularly by means of force or coercion, will not be accepted and will be met with a decisive and firm reaction; lauds the restraint and disciplined reaction of the Taiwanese authorities and calls on the Chinese authorities to exercise restraint and avoid any actions that may further escalate cross-strait tensions; calls for regular exchanges between the EU and its Taiwanese counterparts on relevant security issues and for stronger cooperation on countering disinformation and foreign interference; stresses that any escalation in the Taiwan Strait would have detrimental effects on Europe’s security and economy and therefore urges the Commission to start developing contingency planning and mitigation measures on the basis of likely escalation scenarios, such as an economic blockade of Taiwan by China;

    63. Expresses deep concern at China’s increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea and in the Indo-Pacific region, namely its use of military and economic coercion, hybrid warfare tactics, dangerous manoeuvres conducted by its navy and coast guard against its neighbours and island-building, in order to advance unlawful maritime claims and threaten maritime shipping lanes; points to reports that a Chinese-linked ship cut a Taiwanese undersea cable in early January 2025 and calls for a thorough investigation into the matter; calls, furthermore, for Taiwan and the EU to share information about such incidents; reiterates its strong interest in and support for freedom of navigation and maritime security everywhere, and notably in the South China Sea; calls on the Chinese authorities to put an end to all aggressive and provocative actions, in particular air and maritime operations in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, that endanger stability in the Indo-Pacific region and thereby undermine international peace and security, the sovereignty of countries in the region, the safety of life at sea and freedom of navigation in full compliance with UNCLOS; applauds the increase in freedom of navigation exercises conducted by several EU countries, including France, the Netherlands and Germany; notes that these activities are in line with international law and calls for more cooperation and coordination with regional partners, including through Coordinated Maritime Presences in the north-western Indian Ocean, among other areas, in order to increase freedom of navigation operations in the region;

    64. Remains concerned about the political and economic pressure being exerted by China and Russia in Central Asia and stresses the need to scale up the EU’s presence in the region in response; underlines the EU’s interest in strengthening security cooperation, economic relations and political ties with the countries of Central Asia, including in order to address the circumvention of sanctions against Russia and Belarus;

    65. Condemns Iran, in the strongest terms, for its destabilising activities in the Middle East region, including through its proxies, and for its continued support for terrorist groups, which pose a direct threat to regional, European and global security; condemns the growing military cooperation between Iran and Russia, in particular their intention to sign a treaty on a comprehensive strategic partnership; expresses, however, full support for and solidarity with Iran’s civil society and democratic forces and calls for increased international efforts to support these groups in their struggle for freedom and human rights; welcomes the EU’s decision to renew sanctions against Iran until July 2025, including by sanctioning Iran’s production of drones and missiles and its supply thereof to Russia and the wider Middle East region; points out that the sanction options that have not yet been exhausted include a much more restrictive approach to technology transfers through exports of products that are not categorised as dual-use;

    66. Unequivocally condemns the Iranian Government for aiding and abetting internationally recognised terrorist organisations and networks that have perpetrated or attempted attacks within the EU, posing a direct threat to European security, sovereignty and stability; recalls, in this respect, that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps has been involved in planning and carrying out dozens of assassinations and terrorist attacks, including on EU soil, over the past 30 years and, more recently, in attacks against Jewish synagogues and individuals, as well as against Israeli embassies in several Member States; urges the EU and the Member States to enhance intelligence-sharing and counter-terrorism measures to prevent any future attacks; reiterates its long-standing call to add the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to the EU list of terrorist organisations and supports the initiatives taken by some Member States in this regard;

    67. Considers Iran’s nuclear weapons programme to be one of the foremost threats to global security and stresses that if Iran succeeds in acquiring a nuclear breakout capability, it risks intensifying in belligerence and stepping up its state sponsorship of terrorism and proliferation of missiles and drones;

    68. Reiterates its condemnation, in the strongest terms, of the despicable terrorist attacks perpetrated by the terrorist organisation Hamas against Israel on 7 October 2023, which contributed to further destabilisation in the Middle East, intensified by aggressions against Israel by Iranian proxies (such as terrorist organisations including Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen) and the Iranian regime itself; reiterates that Israel has the right to defend itself, as enshrined in and constrained by international law; calls for the immediate and unconditional release of all remaining hostages held by Hamas; calls for all parties to put an immediate end to all hostilities and fully abide by international law, including international humanitarian law; welcomes the recent ceasefire in Gaza and the progress made towards the phased release of hostages; emphasising that this represents a significant step in relieving the immense suffering endured by civilians on both sides over the past months; praises the commitment of mediators, including the United States, Egypt and Qatar, whose efforts were pivotal in achieving this breakthrough; considers that it is crucial that all obligations made under the deal are upheld, ensuring the release of all hostages, establishing a lasting cessation of violence and allowing unrestrained access of humanitarian and medical assistance to the Gaza Strip; calls for all parties to fully commit to their obligations and to prioritise the protection of civilians; urges all European and international actors to actively oversee the implementation of the ceasefire and hold accountable those who fail to comply with it;

    69. Expresses its deep concern regarding the military escalation in the Middle East, which contributes to further destabilisation in the region; deplores the unacceptable number of civilian casualties, the forced displacement caused by the escalating violence and the persistent use of military force; expresses serious concern, furthermore, about the ongoing military action by the Israeli Defence Forces in the Gaza Strip and in the West Bank; condemns the Israeli Defence Forces firing on the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), which is a grave violation of international law; reaffirms the essential stabilising role played by UNIFIL, to which 16 Member States contribute, in southern Lebanon; calls for immediate ceasefires in both Gaza and Lebanon, an end to the hostilities, the full and symmetrical implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701(2006) and the protection of the civilian populations; stresses the need for the EU and other international actors to assume greater responsibility and assist governments and civil society organisations in the Middle East with reaching durable and sustainable peace, in particular by continuing to support a two-state solution between Israel and Palestine, as well as by countering terrorism and radicalisation in the region; underscores that the evolution of conflicts in the region has repercussions on neighbouring regions and on Europe and poses security challenges for the EU with regard to the future of deterrence, humanitarian law and crisis management;

    70. Urges the Council and the Member States to designate Hezbollah, in its entirety, as a terrorist organisation and to push for its full disarmament in line with UN Security Council Resolution 1701(2006); highlights recent decisions taken by several states, including the United States and Canada, to list Samidoun as a terrorist organisation acting as proxy of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine; stresses that Samidoun was banned in Germany in 2023 and calls on other EU Member States to take similar measures by banning the organisation within their territory;

    71. Notes that the Jordan-Syria border is being used as a crossing point for arms and drug trafficking; emphasises the need for the EU to further support Jordan, which has been weakened by the current crisis in the Middle East, and calls for the increased use of the EPF protect the Jordan-Syria border;

    72. Recognises that Türkiye is a country of strategic relevance for the EU; notes that Türkiye is increasingly present in areas where the EU has key security interests and CSDP missions and operations, and notes with regrets the role that Türkiye plays in destabilising certain areas of concern for the EU and in its neighbourhoods; points out Türkiye’s illegal activities against the EU’s interests in the eastern Mediterranean, which violate international law, including UNCLOS; reiterates its condemnation of the signature of the memoranda of understanding between Türkiye and Libya on comprehensive security and military cooperation and on the delimitation of maritime zones, which are interconnected and are clear violations of international law, the relevant UN Security Council resolutions and the sovereign rights of EU Member States; deplores the fact that Türkiye undermines the effectiveness of EU sanctions against Russia and reiterates its call on Türkiye to fully align with these; calls on Türkiye to refrain from undermining EU CSDP missions and operations; reiterates its call on Türkiye to fulfil its obligation regarding the full, non-discriminatory implementation of the Additional Protocol to the Ankara Agreement with respect to all Member States, including the Republic of Cyprus;

    73. Deplores the fact that despite de-escalation efforts, Türkiye continues to retain the threat of casus belli against Greece and to illegally occupy the northern part of the Republic of Cyprus; strongly condemns Türkiye’s illegal activities in Cyprus, including its violation of the status of the buffer zone, its increasing militarisation of the occupied areas of the Republic of Cyprus and its efforts to upgrade the secessionist entity in the occupied area of Cyprus in violation of international law, noting that these activities that are not conducive to the resumption of the UN-led negotiations; condemns Türkiye’s continuous violations of UN Security Council resolutions 550(1984) and 789(1992), which call on Türkiye to transfer the area of Varosha to its lawful inhabitants under the temporary administration of the UN by supporting the opening of the town of Varosha to the public; strongly urges Türkiye, once more, to reverse its illegal and unilateral actions in Varosha; further calls on Türkiye to withdraw its troops from Cyprus;

    74. Calls urgently for the resumption of negotiations on the reunification of Cyprus under the auspices of the UN Secretary-General and reaffirms its unconditional support for Cyprus in resolving the issue; calls on Türkiye to accept a fair, comprehensive and viable solution to this issue;

    75. Calls for the EU to play a significant role in the Mediterranean and to become a security actor with the ability to guarantee the stability of the region and respect for international law and UNCLOS; welcomes, in this regard, the appointment of a Commissioner for the Mediterranean, working under the guidance and political steering of the VP/HR; stresses the need for the VP/HR, in cooperation with the Commissioner for the Mediterranean where necessary and in consultation with Member States, to develop a coherent security strategy with regard to the Mediterranean region and its neighbouring countries, including in North Africa, the Levant and the Sahel; calls for enhanced cooperation with partner countries in the Mediterranean to combat extremism, terrorism, the illicit trade in weapons and human trafficking;

    76. Notes with concern the violations of migrants’ fundamental rights in Libya, as highlighted in UN Security Council Resolution 2755(2024); stresses the need to examine the role of CSDP missions and operations – EUBAM Libya and EUNAVFOR IRINI – in effectively fighting against the smuggling and trafficking of human beings, and their activities in relation to the need to protect  migrants’ fundamental rights;

    77. Notes that the rapid collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s criminal regime in Syria, which has been supported by the Kremlin since 2015, constitutes a significant political defeat for Vladimir Putin and threatens Russia’s strategic and military presence in Syria; recalls that since 2015, the Khmeimim and Tartus military bases have served as key points for Russian power projection in the Middle East and Africa; notes further that the Khmeimim and Tartus military bases were vital for the supply and transport of heavy weaponry and equipment to Russia’s private military companies, such as the Wagner Group and its operations in Libya, Mali, the Central African Republic, and Sudan; stresses that losing military bases in Syria could weaken Russia’s operational capacity and influence in Africa; calls, therefore, for the EU and its Member States to closely monitor the situation in Syria, make ties with the new Syrian regime conditional on Russia’s full withdrawal from the country and prevent Russia from establishing new military bases elsewhere in the region; recognises, in this regard, the EU’s significant leverage with regard to Syria in terms of political recognition, the easing of sanctions, trade agreements, and financial support for reconstruction, positioning the EU as an alternative to Türkiye in shaping Syria’s future;

    78. Expresses its growing concern about and condemns the continuing attempts by Russia to destabilise the countries in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood through the use of FIMI, political assassinations, threats and territorial occupations in a bid to negatively impact their European aspirations and stability; underlines the need to reinforce the EU’s capacities to defend and develop democratic and value-based societies in the countries in the EU’s eastern neighbourhood;

    79. Reaffirms the EU’s commitment to support the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova within its internationally recognised borders and the efforts to reach a peaceful, lasting, comprehensive political settlement of the Transnistrian conflict; strongly condemns the constant and coordinated attempts by Russia, pro-Russian oligarchs and Russian-sponsored local proxies to destabilise the Republic of Moldova, sow divisions within Moldovan society and derail the country’s European course through hybrid attacks, the weaponisation of energy supplies, disinformation, bomb threats and staged protests, as well as the threat or use of violence; notes with concern that the Security and Intelligence Service of the Republic of Moldova has reported an unprecedented level of intensity in Russia’s actions aimed at anchoring Moldova within its sphere of influence; underlines that this hybrid threat is targeted at democratic processes and undermines European integration, including by amplifying radical separatist tendencies in the south of the country, particularly in Gagauzia, using propaganda, manipulating the information space, interfering in the electoral process and conducting subversive operations;

    80. Reiterates its calls on Russia to withdraw its military forces and equipment from the territory of the Republic of Moldova, to ensure the full destruction of all ammunition and equipment in the Cobasna depot under international oversight and to support a peaceful resolution to the Transnistrian conflict, in line with the principles of international law; calls for enhanced EU support for Moldova in combating FIMI, hybrid threats and cyberattacks; urges the Member States to increase funding for the EPF to strengthen the defence capabilities of Moldova;

    81. Recognises that Georgia was the first target, in 2008, of Russia’s full-scale military aggression and its attempts to forcefully redraw the borders of a sovereign state in Europe; stresses that since 2008, Russia has persisted in its illegal occupation of and effective control over the occupied regions of Georgia; underlines that Russia’s military presence and significant military build-up in the occupied regions, its unlawful activities, its continued borderisation activities along the administrative boundary lines and its human rights abuses in Georgia pose a serious risk to the country’s security and to the broader security framework of Europe; reiterates its calls on Russia to withdraw its military forces and equipment from the territory of Georgia;

    82. Strongly condemns Russia’s shooting down of Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243 on 25 December 2024, killing 38 of the 67 passengers on board; underlines that this highlights once more the brutal and belligerent nature of the Russian regime;

    83. Urges the EU to continue its active engagement and take decisive steps, through its important instruments, to ensure that Russia fulfils its obligations under the EU-mediated ceasefire agreement of 12 August 2008, in particular its obligations to withdraw all its military forces from the occupied regions of Georgia, to allow the deployment of international security mechanisms inside both Georgian regions and the EU Monitoring Mission’s unhindered access to the whole territory of Georgia, and to engage constructively in the Geneva International Discussions and the Incident Prevention and Response Mechanisms; calls on the EEAS to prepare a comprehensive report on violations of the 12 August 2008 ceasefire agreement, to identify and communicate clearly the provisions that have still not been fulfilled by Russia and to submit recommendations;

    84. Condemns Azerbaijan for its continued efforts to undermine the possibility of regional peace and its continued threats against Armenia; calls for the EU and its Member States to suspend any security, technical or financial assistance provided to Azerbaijan, including through various EU instruments, that might contribute to the increase of Azerbaijan’s offensive capabilities or endanger the security, territorial integrity and sovereignty of Armenia;

    85. Recalls that a year has passed since Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, which resulted in the forced displacement of more than 140 000 Armenians from the region; condemns the military support and the supply of arms provided by non-EU countries to Azerbaijan; points out that Azerbaijan has been guilty of serious breaches of human rights in Nagorno-Karabakh; condemns the destruction of the Armenian cultural heritage in the region by Azerbaijan; calls on the Council to consider imposing targeted and individual sanctions against those responsible for ceasefire violations and human rights abuses in Nagorno-Karabakh;

    86. Welcomes the decision to adopt the first assistance measure under the EPF in support of Armenian armed forces, as this would strengthen the resilience of Armenia in the context of ensuring security, independence and sovereignty; calls for the further reinforcement of the cooperation between Armenia and the EU in the field of security and defence, in particular in the area of mine clearance, including through the use of the EPF, taking into account Armenia’s reconsideration of its membership of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation; welcomes the actions undertaken by several Member States to provide defensive military support to Armenia and urges the other Member States to consider similar initiatives;

    87. Emphasises that the EU should urgently review its regional strategy for the Sahel, following the various coups in the region; strongly deplores the forced departure of French troops and UN peacekeeping forces from the region and condemns the presence instead of private military companies (PMCs) and state-sponsored proxies such as the Africa Corps (formerly Wagner Group); underscores that that these PMCs have played a destabilising role in the Sahel and have supported various repressive regimes in an attempt to further Russia’s influence in Africa; points out the supply of weapons by Russia to the Sahel’s military regimes; further notes that other actors, such as Türkiye, are increasingly present in the region; urges the EU Special Representative for the Sahel and the Member States to maintain diplomatic engagement and continue supporting civil society and spending on development and humanitarian aid;

    88. Expresses its concern about the lack of coherence in the EU response to the Great Lakes region’s crises and calls on the Council to reassess its renewed EU Great Lakes Strategy adopted on 20 February 2023; recognises the importance of a genuine commitment by the EU to peace in the region; notes with concern the role that Rwanda has played in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and calls on the EU to impose conditions on any military support to Rwanda; condemns the breaches of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of eastern DRC by M23 rebels; is deeply concerned about the humanitarian situation of thousands of displaced persons in the area; urges the VP/HR to engage in clear actions in line with the EU Great Lakes Strategy in order to restore stability and to cooperate with the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) to protect civilians in eastern DRC; urges the Rwandan Government to withdraw its troops from DRC territory and cease cooperation with the M23 rebels; urges the VP/HR and the Member States to urgently review military assistance to the Rwandan armed forces through the European Peace Facility and consider suspending it in the event that the Rwandan Government does not comply with urgent calls for its withdrawal from DRC by the UN and the EU;

    89. Is concerned about the limited role played by the EU in the Horn of Africa, while the involvement of other foreign actors is growing; calls for a review of the EU strategy in the region, with a view to achieving the EU’s goals of promoting peace, stability, and inclusive and sustainable economic development in the region; calls on the Council, the Commission and the EEAS to reflect on how to best use CSDP missions and operations deployed in the region to further these goals and enhance the EU’s activities;

    90. Recognises that the Arctic region has significant strategic and geopolitical importance owing to its emerging maritime routes, wealth of natural resources and opportunities for economic development unlocked by global warming, while being increasingly contested; is alarmed by the intensifying militarisation and resource competition driven by Russian and Chinese activities in the region;

    91. Underlines the importance of preserving security, stability and cooperation in the Arctic; stresses that the region must remain free from military tensions and natural resource exploitation and that the rights of indigenous peoples must be respected; reiterates the need to include the Union’s Arctic policy in the CSDP and to strengthen deterrence and defence capabilities in close coordination with NATO; emphasises that EU-NATO cooperation is essential to counterbalance the expanding influence of Russia and China in the region; calls for issues of interest to the Arctic to be addressed regularly within the Political and Security Committee and Council meetings;

    Gender dimension and women’s role in peace and security

    92. Emphasises the disproportionate and unique impact of armed conflicts on women and girls, especially in terms of conflict-related sexual violence; highlights the imperative need to ensure the provision and accessibility of the appropriate healthcare in armed conflicts, including sexual and reproductive health and rights; calls on the EU and Member States to ensure that armed conflicts are considered through a gender lens;

    93. Recalls that mainstreaming and operationalising gender perspectives in external relations and implementing the ‘Women, Peace and Security’ agenda in accordance with the relevant UN Security Council Resolutions are long-standing priorities for the EU; recalls in this regard the importance of strengthening women’s participation in conflict prevention and resolution, peace negotiations, peacebuilding and peacekeeping, humanitarian action and post-conflict reconstruction;

    94. Stresses that the integration of a gender perspective into all external and internal CSDP activities helps to improve the CSDP’s operational effectiveness and is a driver of the EU’s credibility as a proponent of gender equality worldwide; insists therefore on the importance of delivering on all the commitments made by the EU, including those in the EU’s Gender Action Plan (GAP) III (2020-2024) and in the Strategic Compass; also insists that the update of the Strategic Compass propose further measures to ensure gender equality and the full and meaningful participation of women in the CSDP, especially in military missions;

    95. Welcomes the inclusion of gender and human rights perspectives and the appointment of gender advisers in all CSDP missions and operations and the establishment of a network of gender focal points; calls for the new Civilian CSDP Compact to be used to strive for the full participation of women in civilian CSDP missions;

    CSDP missions and operations

    96. Underlines the importance of clear and achievable goals, openness to the host country’s perspectives and ownership, as well as of equipment and the necessary financial, logistical and human resources for each of the CSDP missions and operations; also underlines the deterioration of the security environment where many CSDP missions are present; calls for improvements to the governance of evaluation and control of CSDP missions and operations; reiterates its call for comprehensive assessments of CSDP missions and operations, in particular of the realism of their mandates in relation to the resources and equipment allocated, their management, methods of recruiting their staff and of matching profiles to the skills required, transparency on calls for tender, activities and results obtained, lessons learned on good practices and difficulties encountered; stresses the particular need for all missions and operations to have sunset provisions to allow a sustainable termination if necessary; calls on the VP/HR and the Member States to continue to effectively design CSDP missions and operations, including robust, result-oriented, flexible and modular mandates, in order to adapt to the changing security context and needs of host countries, and to maintain a strong partnership with host governments, civil society and local populations, ensuring the creation of the necessary conditions for the missions and operations to achieve their goals over the long term; calls for the Member States to use the new Civilian CSDP Compact to strengthen their strategic vision of civilian crisis management by clarifying the role, effectiveness and added value of civilian CSDP, and by defining a shared level of ambition for civilian crisis management; also calls for the synergies and complementarities between the civilian and military dimensions of the CSDP to be built on; calls on the Commission and the EEAS to develop, together with the Member States, a structured and regular civilian Capability Development Process to assess the availabilities of Member States’ capability needs, develop requirements, conduct a gap analysis and periodically review progress; believes in the necessity of establishing a solid policy on the equipment and services needed by partner countries where civilian CSDP missions take place;

    97. Notes that the CFSP budget for civilian CSDP missions has only marginally increased between the multiannual financial framework (MFF) 2014-2020 and the MFF 2021-2027, while at the same time the number of missions and their tasks and costs have increased; calls for a substantive increase in funding for the CFSP budget, while at the same time ensuring the efficient use of the funds allocated to CSDP civilian missions, in order to make sure that they respond effectively to crisis situations and unforeseen events; calls for the establishment of a dedicated budget line or ‘civilian support facility’, to provide partner countries with the necessary equipment and services to enhance their civilian capabilities;

    98. Reiterates its call on the EEAS to take concrete action to support CSDP missions and operations defending against cyber and hybrid attacks and countering FIMI in countries where CSDP missions and operations are deployed, in particular in the Western Balkans and in the Eastern Partnership countries; calls on the Commission to take into account CSDP missions and operations when formulating its European Democracy Shield in order to pre-empt threats aiming to discredit the EU’s external actions and safeguard EU personnel deployed abroad; insists on the need to build on lessons learned across the different CSDP missions and operations, as well as cooperating with Member States’ missions and operations so as to better communicate and identify threats in order to pre-empt or respond to them in a timely manner when necessary; calls for an improved response capability, strategic communication and enhanced outreach in the areas of deployment – using the relevant local languages – in order to better inform the local population of the rationales, benefits and roles of the CSDP missions and operations in their respective regions, informing them as well of the consequences of relying on the support of other actors aiming at destabilising them, in particular Russia and China; also calls on the Commission and the EEAS to increase the visibility of CSDP missions and operations in the Eastern Partnership countries by including them in their political messaging, making documents publicly accessible and engaging with the international press; calls on the Commission and the EEAS to adjust the advisory mandates of CSDP missions and operations to include specialised training on combating hybrid warfare activities, cyber warfare and open source intelligence (OSINT) analysis; calls on the EEAS to increase its cooperation and coordination with other missions and operations by like-minded partners and organisations, including United Nations Peacekeeping Operations, in countering FIMI operations in the field;

    99. Stresses that corruption in theatres of operations can adversely impact CSDP missions and operations by exposing them to reputational damage, wasting resources, and exacerbating poor governance and maladministration, as well as increasing local levels of bribery, fraud, extortion, and nepotism; calls for strategies to be implemented to prevent and combat corruption, developing anti-corruption expertise and knowledge and stepping up efforts to mitigate corruption risks in current and future CSDP missions and operations;

    100. Calls on the Council and the EEAS to include a cultural heritage protection component in its CSDP missions and operations in order to provide assistance and education to local partners on addressing security challenges relating to the preservation and protection of cultural heritage; notes that the inclusion of cultural heritage protection and intercultural dialogue in mission mandates would be beneficial to the process of conflict resolution and reconciliation;

    101. Highlights the need to extend the mandates of CSDP missions and operations deployed in neighbouring eastern European countries, where heightened security threats justify a reinforced EU presence; encourages all Member States to deploy personnel to those missions and operations; also encourages greater third country participation in these missions, particularly from third countries that have successfully hosted completed CSDP missions; calls on the Member States to examine how new CSDP missions and operations can be established in EU candidate countries, if necessary, and in close cooperation with their national authorities; calls on the EEAS to ensure that the CSDP missions’ support to security sector reforms includes training for ministerial officials; calls for the EEAS and the European Security and Defence College to help develop the expertise of civil and defence staff supporting and deployed in CSDP missions and operations; recognises the opportunity for third countries hosting CSDP missions and operations to help the EU achieve CSDP objectives and demonstrate their capacity to provide security to others via their participation in out-of-area CSDP missions and operations;

    102. Welcomes the UN Security Council’s extension of the mandate of the European Union Force (EUFOR) Operation Althea in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) beyond 2025, as an established and proven peacekeeping mission that has significantly contributed to the stability of both the country and the region; further welcomes the mission’s positive response to the request from the BiH Ministry of Security’s Civil Protection Agency, offering assistance to national authorities on addressing the impact of the recent flooding; takes the view that this extension reflects the shared commitment across the political spectrum in BiH to uphold peace and security in cooperation with the EU; welcomes the continued presence of the Kosovo Force (KFOR) and the EU Rule of Law Mission (EULEX) in Kosovo and commends the role it plays in strengthening security and stability; calls on all parties involved to adhere to the requirements of international law, restrain and prevent any disruptive actions from destabilising the northern region of Kosovo; urges them to engage in the structured dialogue mediated by the EU; condemns in the strongest possible terms the terrorist attack by Serbian paramilitaries against Kosovo’s police and the hideous terrorist attack on critical infrastructure near Zubin Potok in northern Kosovo; stresses that the perpetrators of these deplorable terrorist attacks must be held accountable and face justice without delay; calls for the strengthening of both EUFOR’s Operation Althea and KFOR with additional resources;

    103. Commends the establishment and operations of the EU Partnership Mission in Moldova (EUPM Moldova), which has contributed to strengthening the country’s crisis management structures and to enhancing its resilience to cyber and hybrid threats, and countering FIMI; calls for the mission’s mandate to be extended beyond May 2025, the adequacy of its means, methods and resources in relation to the mission’s objectives to be assessed and its resources adapted in the light of the evaluation’s conclusions in order to enhance its effectiveness; recognises the important role that the European Union Border Assistance Mission to Moldova and Ukraine (EUBAM) plays in helping to re-open rail freight through Transnistria and in thwarting multiple smuggling operations; encourages EUBAM to expand its collaboration with multiple international organisations including Europol, FRONTEX and the OSCE via its Arms Working Group, ORIO II Joint Operations and ‘EU 4 Border Security’ initiatives;

    104. Welcomes the role of the EU Monitoring Mission (EUMM) to Georgia in monitoring the situation on the Abkhaz and South Ossetian Administrative Boundary Line; condemns the temporary detention of EUMM officers by security actors while conducting a routine patrol along the Administrative Boundary Line (ABL); expresses its profound concern about any actions that obstruct EUMM actions and seek to undermine efforts to build confidence; urges the Council and the EEAS to monitor the situation closely, promote the unimpeded access of the EUMM to Georgia’s territories occupied by Russia according to the mission’s mandate, support the extension of its mandate and strengthen its capacities in order to properly address the security and humanitarian needs of the local population in conflict-affected areas;

    105. Welcomes and strongly supports the activities of the civilian European Union Mission in Armenia (EUMA) under the CSDP, which is helping to increase security in the region by substantially decreasing the number of incidents in conflict-affected and border areas, building confidence and reducing the level of risks for the population living in these areas; welcomes Armenia’s assistance to the activities of the EUMA on its territory; commends the Council for the decision to boost the mission’s capacity and increase the number of observers deployed as well as to extend its deployment timeframe, and calls for further expansion and a stronger presence in the region in order to create an environment conducive to EU-supported normalisation efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan; urges Azerbaijan to allow EU observers on its side of the border as well; condemns Azerbaijani threats and Russia’s negative narrative against the EUMA;

    106. Considers that the two EU civilian CSDP missions – European Union Police Mission for the Palestinian Territories (EUPOL COPPS) and the European Union Border Assistance Mission for the Rafah Crossing Point (EUBAM Rafah) can play an essential role in supporting Palestinian state-building efforts; supports a stronger role for the EUPOL COPPS and EUBAM Rafah, in line with the European Council conclusions of 21 and 22 March 2024 and based on the principle of the two-state solution and the viability of a future Palestinian state, so that they can participate in the facilitation of the delivery of humanitarian assistance to the Gaza Strip, improve the efficiency of the Palestinian authority in the West Bank, and prepare for the authority’s return to the Gaza Strip; stresses in particular the need to create the necessary conditions for the full reactivation of EUBAM Rafah to allow it act as a neutral third party at the Rafah crossing point, in coordination with the Palestinian Authority as well as the Israeli and Egyptian authorities; expects the reinforcement of the scope and mandates of EUPOL COPPS and EUBAM Rafah on the ground to be included as key priorities of the forthcoming EU-Middle East Strategy; welcomes the Council decision to extend the mandates of the two missions until 30 June 2025;

    107. Takes note that the mandates of the EUTM Mali, EUMPM in Niger and of the ground mission of personnel from EUCAP Sahel Niger ended in 2024, while the EU Capacity Mission Sahel Mali (EUCAP Sahel Mali) and the EU Regional Advisory and Coordination Cell (EU RACC) for the Sahel are still ongoing; acknowledges that the various international missions have not been able to achieve their goal of stabilising the region and its fragile democracies or ensuring peace in the region; is concerned by the failure of the EU’s Sahel strategy in terms of security and defence; expresses deep concern about the worsening security situation, the continuous failure of states and the resurgence of terrorism in the Sahel; takes note of the creation of a new type of hybrid civilian-military EU Security and Defence Initiative in the Gulf of Guinea (EUSDI Gulf of Guinea), established in August 2023, aiming to empower the security and defence forces of Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Togo and Benin to improve the stability and resilience of their northern border areas; calls on the EEAS and the Member States to closely examine the mandate of all CSDP missions in Africa, with the aim of providing achievable goals and milestones for each mission given the current political context, as well as exploring whether these missions could be amended to more effectively serve a new revised multi-dimensional EU strategy for Africa and the Sahel, as part of its integrated approach; calls in this regard, for a review, as a matter of priority, of the mandate and resources of the EUCAP Sahel Mali and EU RACC for the Sahel, proposing changes to them and consider their termination if necessary;

    108. Welcomes the creation in February 2024 of EUNAVFOR ASPIDES as an EU military operation in response to the Houthi attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea, in order to contribute to the protection of freedom of navigation and the safeguarding of maritime security, especially for merchant and commercial vessels in the Red Sea, the Indian Ocean and the Persian Gulf; calls on the Member States to increase the capabilities of the EUNAVFOR ASPIDES operation and to consider merging it with the EU ATALANTA military operation, as originally envisaged, to improve the efficiency of both operations;

    Improving the EU’s ability to address security challenges

    Intelligence capacity

    109. Stresses the importance of enhanced intelligence sharing and information exchange among Member States and EU institutions, including Parliament, to combat foreign interference, improve situational awareness and be able to better anticipate and counter threats to collective security and define common lines of action under the CSDP, particularly in the area of crisis management;

    110. Underlines the need for the EU to make full use of the necessary first-hand information on global issues occurring outside its borders in the light of increasing geopolitical challenges and crises worldwide; commends the efforts of the EU Intelligence and Situation Centre (EU INTCEN) and the EU Military Staff Intelligence Directorate, cooperating in the framework of the Single Intelligence Analysis Capacity (SIAC), as well as the European Union Satellite Centre (SatCen), to produce all-source intelligence assessments; calls on the EU Member States to reinforce the EU INTCEN, the SIAC, the EEAS Crisis Response Centre and the EU SatCen by enhancing its staff and financial resources, as well as capabilities and information security; urges these centres, provided they have adequate information security provisions, to draw lessons from NATO’s role in facilitating public-private sharing of cyber threat intelligence, and apply this to their field, thereby offering added value to the Member States;

    111. Calls on the Member States to utilise the EU INTCEN as an effective intelligence-sharing body in order to share intelligence in a secure fashion, formulate a common strategic and security culture and provide strategic information; stresses that on the basis of the intelligence gathered, the EU INTCEN should be further involved in the threat assessments carried out by the EU institutions, as well as attribution of digital operations and sanctions evasions; reiterates its call to promote the establishment of a system for the regular and continuous flow of intelligence from Member States to the EEAS and between EU Member States on foreign and security issues occurring outside the Union; underlines the importance of secure communications and a high level of information security for reliable intelligence and calls for efforts to enhance and streamline security rules and regulations to be pursued in this respect to better protect sensitive information, infrastructure and communication systems from foreign interference and attacks;

    112. Calls for regular joint threat assessments with input from Member States’ intelligence services in order to inform CSDP decision-making bodies and reiterates its call for the deployment of intelligence-gathering capacities in all CSDP missions and operations, which would provide information to the EU INTCEN, EU Military Staff (EUMS), the MPCC and the CPCC;

    Defence against hybrid attacks and disinformation

    113. Expresses serious concern about the growing security challenges posed by cyber and hybrid attacks, as well as FIMI, all of which are aimed, inter alia, at undermining the stability of the EU’s democratic societies, in particular in EU territories far from their mainland, the alliances of EU Member States, and fostering polarisation, especially in the run-up to elections; stresses that Member States, particularly those on the EU’s eastern external border, are vulnerable to such hostile influence from Russia and Belarus; welcomes the established institutional cooperation at administrative level between the Commission, the EEAS and Parliament during the past European election campaign to prevent a massive use of FIMI by malicious third state and non-state actors; calls on the Commission, the EEAS and Parliament’s administration to strengthen their capabilities to increase resilience against hybrid attacks and FIMI; points in this regard to the recent decision by the Romanian constitutional court to annul the first round of the presidential elections following reports of massive hybrid attacks by Russia, especially via social media platforms; further calls on the administrations of the EEAS and Parliament to closely cooperate with the private sector, civil society as well as the academic and scientific community in countering malign influence campaigns and hybrid threats, including the weaponisation of new technologies;

    114. Supports the pledged establishment of a ‘European Democracy Shield’ and reiterates its call on the Member States, the Commission and the EEAS to consider the creation of a well-resourced and independent structure tasked with identifying, analysing and documenting FIMI threats against the EU as a whole, to detect, track and request the removal of deceptive online content, to increase situational awareness and threat intelligence sharing, and develop attribution capabilities and countermeasures in relation to FIMI; considers that this structure would serve as a reference point and specialised knowledge hub to facilitate and foster operational exchange between Member States’ authorities and the EU institutions; stresses that the structure should clarify and enhance the role of the EEAS Strategic Communications division and its task forces as the strategic body of the EU’s diplomatic service and prevent the overlap of activities; highlights its own decision to establish a special committee on the EU Democracy Shield in the European Parliament and deems it an important way to consolidate European efforts in this field;

    115. Highlights the importance of intensifying efforts to combat disinformation promoted by foreign actors aiming to undermine the credibility of the EU, particularly in EU candidate or neighbouring countries and regions where CSDP missions and operations are under way; underlines that the coordination between the EEAS and relevant EU agencies, including the EU Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) and relevant authorities at Member State level, must be significantly increased in order to develop coherent and efficient strategies against FIMI; underlines in this regard the need for strategic and preventive communication, and invites all EU institutions to work hand in hand with the EEAS, to strengthen the visibility, the positive perception and legitimacy of the EU’s external actions;

    116. Considers that hybrid threats in the years ahead will see the combination of information warfare, agile force manoeuvre, mass cyberwarfare, and emerging and disruptive technologies from the seabed to space with the deployment of advanced air and space surveillance and strike systems, all of which will possibly be enabled by AI, quantum computing, ever smarter drone swarm technologies, offensive cyber capabilities, hypersonic missile systems, nanotechnologies and biological warfare; recognises in particular the increasing role of AI in hybrid warfare and its potential use in undermining democratic institutions, spreading disinformation, disrupting critical infrastructure, as well as influencing public opinion through automated and data-driven operations;

    117. Calls for strategic, proactive and coordinated EU-level measures to counter hybrid threats and to strengthen the security and integrity of critical infrastructure in the EU, de-risking and promoting the EU’s technological edge in critical sectors, including measures to restrict or exclude high-risk suppliers; stresses in this regard the importance of the PESCO project that aims to support the Cyber and Information Domain Coordination Centre (CIDCC) to facilitate the planning and conduct of EU missions and operations with cyber- and information-domain capabilities as well as enhancing the general resilience of the EU in this area; calls, therefore, for its permanent integration in CSDP;

    118. Condemns the continued malicious actions by Russia and Belarus aimed at destabilising the EU by pushing migrants to forcibly enter EU countries, constituting a hybrid attack; calls on the EU to review and update its policies concerning the strengthening of its external borders in order to bolster the security of the Union as a whole;

    Cybersecurity

    119. Welcomes the Cyber Solidarity Act[27] and its importance to Member States’ cyber defence capabilities; supports the promotion of platforms for information sharing and analysis and calls for this to be expanded to include the provision of threat or vulnerability intelligence with cross-border security operations centres (SOCs); calls for a clearer funding plan that specifies the amount of funds that will be used to implement the act;

    120. Is concerned by the delay by many Member States in implementing the Directive on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity across the Union (NIS 2 Directive)[28] and calls for swift implementation to secure European critical infrastructure; calls on the VP/HR to better synchronise the cyber, hybrid and FIMI sanction toolboxes and use them more actively while also exploring how sectoral sanctions may be implemented;

    Space

    121. Welcomes the findings and recommendations in Mr Draghi’s report on the future of European competitiveness, which encourages Member States to update governance and investment rules in the space domain, in particular for defence-related areas; calls on the Commission and the Member States to invest appropriately in this domain in the context of the next MFF and also by considering any other financing instrument; highlights in particular the need to further develop the European Space Programme considering the strong connections between the space and the defence and security sectors when planning the new MFF; underlines the importance of improving cooperation between the Commission and the European Space Agency to avoid duplication of efforts and ensure more efficient use of resources; calls for fostering transatlantic cooperation and synergies with NATO to ensure effective coordination in the development of space and defence capabilities;

    122. Stresses that the current pillars of the EU’s space programme – the Galileo global satellite navigation programme and the Copernicus Earth observation programme – have clear dual-use potential in developing space applications and services; stresses the importance of establishing, as a third pillar of the EU’s space programme, the IRIS2 satellite constellation to provide secure communication services to the EU and its Member States as well as broadband connectivity for European citizens, private companies and governmental authorities; recommends that Taiwan and Ukraine be granted access to the IRIS2 Satellite Constellation; highlights that, beyond satellite communications, sectors such as positioning, navigation, timing, as well as earth observation, are essential in strengthening the EU’s strategic autonomy and resilience; stresses that the development of these capabilities directly contributes to an effective crisis response and the protection of critical infrastructure; calls therefore for new EU space programmes to be considered, enabling the EU to strengthen its strategic autonomy and its status as a global space power;

    123. Recognises the inadequacy of launch vehicle capabilities and satellite communications within the EU; underlines the strategic importance of advancing and enhancing these capabilities to enable the EU to effectively support Member States and CSDP missions and operations, while maintaining a resilient and autonomous posture; stresses that the development of EU-led solutions in this domain is essential for the protection of critical infrastructure and to ensure a secure and competitive presence in the space sector;

    124. Calls on the Member States to address the growing threat of the weaponisation of space, in particular reports of Russia’s progress on space-based nuclear weapons technology, which would constitute a blatant violation of the 1967 Outer Space Treaty;

    Maritime domain

    125. Stresses that, given the growing geopolitical maritime tensions, the EU must  step up its activities at sea, by leading in maritime domain awareness, protecting critical infrastructure, ensuring that its external maritime borders are monitored effectively in order to prevent illegal activities, and contributing to ensuring freedom of navigation, the safety of maritime lines of communication and of vessels and crews, and to countering illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing;

    126. Underlines the commitment to strengthen the EU’s role as a guarantor of international maritime security; stresses in this regard the importance of the Coordinated Maritime Presence (CMP) concept, enhancing the role of the EU as a global maritime security provider and its visibility in key maritime regions, highlights the activities of CMPs in the Gulf of Guinea and in the northwestern Indian Ocean; calls on the Member States to engage actively with those initiatives and to build up their military naval capabilities with a view to enhancing the EU’s presence and visibility in the global maritime sector; recommends that CMPs be expanded to other key maritime areas across the globe;

    127. Expresses its serious concerns about Russia’s and China’s surveillance and sabotage of critical maritime infrastructure, such as seabed communication cables and offshore energy facilities; expresses in particular its strong concern about the damage to two subsea communications cables, one linking Finland to Germany and the other connecting Sweden to Lithuania, within less than 24 hours on 17 and 18 November 2024, and about the damage by a tanker belonging to the Russian shadow fleet of EstLink2, linking Estonia and Finland, on 25 December 2024; calls on the EU to put in place effective monitoring and surveillance systems and regional coastguard cooperation to ensure the prevention and rapid detection of attacks against such infrastructure; welcomes, in that regard, the launch of the operation ‘Baltic Sentry’ by NATO, with participation of several Member States, to improve the security of critical undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea; calls on Member States to fully abide by the commitments of the New York declaration on the Security and Resilience of Undersea Cables, including the procuring of submarine cable equipment only from companies in allied countries; calls on the Commission to allocate adequate resources to the research and development of cutting-edge underwater assets and defence equipment to protect islands against possible landings and attacks by forces from third countries;

    Arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament

    128. Deplores the weakening of non-proliferation and arms control regimes during these unstable geopolitical times and calls for the redoubling of efforts to reverse this trend; emphasises in this regard the critical and substantial need for an increase in investment in regional and global arms control, non-proliferation and disarmament, with a particular focus on multilateral strategies; stresses that those strategies should address issues relating to unexploded ordnance and chemical weapons dumped in the previous century, which pose a threat to security, the environment, health and the economy, in particular in the Baltic, Adriatic and North seas;

    129. Reaffirms its unwavering support for the EU and its Member States’ commitment to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT), recognising it as the cornerstone of the global nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament framework; recalls that Russia withdrew its ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty in October 2023;

    130. Recalls that international negotiations related to non-proliferation and arms control regimes and their outcomes have an impact on Europe, in particular on EU Member States; highlights the importance of giving renewed impetus to reviving those regimes; also stresses the importance of ensuring that the EU takes an active and constructive role in advancing and strengthening the international rules-based efforts towards non-proliferation, arms control, and disarmament architecture, in particular in the field of weapons of mass destruction and dual-use digital surveillance and manipulation tools;

    131. Calls on the Member States to fully comply with Common Position 2008/944/CFSP defining common rules governing the control of exports of military technology and equipment as amended by Council Decision (CFSP)2019/1560, and to strictly implement criterion 4 on regional stability;

    132. Stresses the need to prevent sensitive emerging technologies and key dual-use items, especially those that are critical for EU security, from being transferred to destinations of concern outside the EU; calls for the establishment and implementation of EU-wide electronic customs and export licensing systems, as a critical step towards making export controls by Member States of those technologies and items more effective;

    Defence and society and civilian and military preparedness and readiness

    133. Highlights the need for a broader understanding of security threats and risks among EU citizens to develop a shared understanding and alignment of threat perceptions across Europe and to create a comprehensive notion of European defence; stresses that securing support by democratic institutions and consequently by citizens is essential to develop a successful and coherent long-term EU defence, which requires an informed public debate; calls for the EU and its Member States to develop awareness-raising and educational programmes, especially for the young, aimed at improving knowledge and facilitating debates on security, defence and the importance of the armed forces and at strengthening the resilience and preparedness of societies to face security challenges, while allowing for greater public and democratic control and scrutiny of the defence sector; calls on the Commission and the Member States to develop those programmes within the framework of the European Democracy Shield, building on the model of national programmes, such as the Swedish Civil Contingency Initiative;

    134. Welcomes the efforts to strengthen Europe’s civil and military preparedness and readiness, as also proposed in Mr Niinistö’s report; acknowledges the critical importance of citizens in crisis preparedness and response, in particular the psychological resilience of individuals and household preparedness; also recognises the importance of civil protection infrastructures and planning for emergency situations; supports a whole-of-society approach to resilience, involving the active engagement of EU institutions, Member States, civil society, and individual citizens in strengthening the EU security framework; stresses that CSDP decision-making bodies responsible for planning, resources and logistics have the potential to become the primary enablers of civilian crisis management during emergency situations; calls on the Member States and the Commission to closely examine the report’s recommendations and develop an EU risk assessment and preparedness strategy, joint exercises, a stronger EU-NATO cooperation interface in view of crisis situations; calls for the development of adequate civil protection infrastructure and thorough emergency planning and for the necessary investments for these purposes to be ensured, including through a dedicated EIB investment guarantee programme for crisis-proof civil defence infrastructure;

    135. Recalls that terrorism, including jihadi terrorism, poses a persistent threat to the security of the EU and of its partners; calls on the EU to continue efforts to prevent this threat with determination and full solidarity, in particular through greater coordination to improve knowledge, develop preparedness and response capabilities, and to ensure closer interaction with partners and other international actors;

    136. Points out that the EU’s defence policies should reflect the principles of gender equality and diversity, promoting inclusive military environments that reflect the values and diversity of European society while ensuring that all members of the European armed forces, regardless of gender or background, have equal opportunities and access to support; reiterates the important role of young people and youth organisations in maintaining and promoting peace and security and calls on the EEAS to commit to integrating young people into its youth, peace and security (YPS) agenda more systematically; also calls for developing train-the-trainers programmes and cooperation between defence institutions and universities of EU Member States, such as military courses, exercises and role playing training activities for civilian students;

    137. Stresses that the EU and its Member States must address critical recruitment and retention challenges in the military by developing coordinated national and EU-level actions in order to ensure a sustainable military workforce; recommends, that the EU should support the Member States in developing policies that enhance career attractiveness and long-term retention strategies; stresses the need for the EU Military Committee (EUMC) to provide follow-up on its task of gathering and analysing data across the EU Member States on the issues of recruitment and retention, in order to identify possible measures addressing these issues; highlights that supporting the mental health and well-being of military personnel, with a focus on professional development and long-term care for veterans, must be adequately taken into consideration in the further development of the Defence Union;

    138. Recalls the importance of organising joint training and exercises between European armed forces, thereby promoting interoperability, with a view to maximising mission preparedness and addressing a broad range of threats, both conventional and non-conventional; calls for the development and creation of exchange programmes at EU level for military personnel from the Member States, aimed at providing training opportunities and experience in different European military environments and structures and thereby fostering mutual understanding, cohesion, and interoperability, between the EU’s armed forces; reiterates in this respect its support for the European Initiative for the Exchange of Military Young Officers (Military Erasmus – EMILYO), operated by the European Security and Defence College;

    Strengthening defence cooperation and partnerships

    139. Underlines the importance of the partnership dimension of the Strategic Compass in reinforcing cooperation between the EU and its allies and partners around the world on the basis of common values and respect for human rights and democracy, in order to strengthen the perception of the deterrence principle and to counter foreign strategies aimed at undermining the EU and its partners, and destabilising the rules-based international order; calls on the EU to further engage in security cooperation with partners in all the priority areas identified in the Strategic Compass, notably in strengthening resilience of local security sectors in the area of crisis management, countering hybrid threats as well as upgrading capacities of cybersecurity institutions; also calls for closer cooperation between relevant organisations from partners with the EU Satellite Centre, the European Defence Agency (EDA) and the EU Agency for Cyber Security (ENISA); believes that the participation of partners and NATO Allies in PESCO projects, subject to the agreement by the EU Member States, contributes to improving compatibility between their standards in the defence sector as well as to sharing experience, intelligence and technical expertise in various fields;

    140. Reaffirms that the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) must always strictly observe international law and the multilateral decisions taken deriving from international institutions; welcomes the adoption of the EU’s human rights and international humanitarian law due diligence policy on security sector support to third parties (EU HRDDP), serving as a basis for security and military cooperation with third countries in a way that is more compliant with human rights and international humanitarian law (IHL); calls for its thorough implementation; reiterates the call for closer cooperation with international organisations, such as, but not limited to, the UN, the African Union, and their peacekeeping missions in joint theatres, and the OSCE on security;

    141. Welcomes the Joint Declaration of the G7 Defence Ministers of 19 October 2024 and their declaration of intent to increase cooperation in the defence sector; stresses the strong interest for the EU of developing international partnerships with like-minded partners in this area and the need to strengthen EU efforts to ensure that countries which were once strategic partners, and with which some Member States maintain strong cultural ties, are not drawn into the sphere of influence of systemic rivals; recalls that economic diplomacy plays a crucial role in this endeavour, serving as an essential tool to reinforce cooperative ties, promote mutual prosperity, and consolidate the EU’s presence and influence, contributing to the resilience of partners against external pressures;

    EU-NATO cooperation

    142. Stresses the importance of the EU’s strategic partnership with NATO, in full respect of the agreed guiding principles of transparency, reciprocity and inclusiveness, as well as respect for the decision-making autonomy and procedures of each organisation; highlights that NATO and the EU play complementary, coherent and mutually reinforcing roles in supporting international peace and security and thus avoiding the duplication of defence efforts, while maintaining strong close cooperation; welcomes the accession of Sweden to NATO in 2024, and that of Finland in 2023, representing a historic step forward in strengthening security in Europe, notably in the Baltic sea region; calls on the VP/HR to operate in close coordination and unity with the NATO Secretary General;

    143. Calls for further deepening of EU-NATO cooperation by building on the EU’s Strategic Compass and NATO’s new Strategic Concept, including in the fields of cybersecurity, hybrid warfare, counter terrorism, military mobility, dual-use infrastructure, conflict prevention and crisis management, military-security cooperation, countering malicious foreign interference from third countries, a coordinated approach in the Indo-Pacific, as well as increasing common action on the international stage to protect democracy; strongly supports NATO’s Open Door Policy; invites the EU and NATO to reinforce their cooperation on supporting the capacity-building of common partners;

    144. Stresses the constant need for alignment among states that are both EU and NATO members and the obligation under Articles 1 and 3 of the NATO charter for cooperation, self-help and mutual aid; calls on the EU to step up its efforts on common security and defence initiatives wherever there is no NATO equivalent, to increase standardisation, improve interoperability and develop common operating procedures between Member States’ and the EU’s defence capabilities;

    145. Commends the close EU-NATO cooperation in the Western Balkans, including through EUFOR Operation Althea and the KFOR military operations, which guarantee the necessary stability for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo and the wider region;

    146. Emphasises the vital role of the Black Sea region in the European security landscape and calls for the EU to collaborate with NATO on formulating a comprehensive strategy for this region, which should address security challenges, counter hybrid threats, enhance maritime cooperation and bolster regional partnerships;

    147. Welcomes the appointment of NATO’s Special Representative for the Southern Neighbourhood and NATO’s focus on this region; considers it appropriate to strengthen coordination and consultation between EU officials in charge of policy for the Southern Neighbourhood and the Sahel and their NATO counterparts, in order to avoid publicity and fragmentation of efforts and resources;

    148. Welcomes the proposal from the NATO Parliamentary Assembly (NATO PA) to enhance Parliament’s status to ‘partner’ under the ongoing reform of partnerships; invites its Delegation for relations with the NATO PA (DNAT) to make full use of Parliament’s current and future privileges; considers DNAT an important instrument of Parliament’s diplomacy in an enhanced EU-NATO partnership aimed at strengthening the European pillar of NATO and contributing to reaching the Alliance’s overall objectives; is of the view that DNAT can play a pivotal role in reinforcing EU-NATO cooperation, strengthening the democratic resilience of accession countries and key partners, as well as, overall, enhancing the parliamentary dimension of this essential partnership;

    Partnership with the United States

    149. Considers it essential to further develop the EU’s close relationship with the United States, which is based on mutual respect, the shared values of democracy, freedom and the rule of law, as well as a broad range of common or converging interests; values the United States’ commitment to and involvement in the territorial defence of Europe, in accordance with the North Atlantic Treaty and its Article 5, especially in the light of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine; encourages mutual security and defence initiatives, disarmament and non-proliferation, the impact of disruptive technologies, climate change, hybrid threats, cyber defence, military mobility, crisis management and the relationship with strategic competitors; calls for further strengthening of the EU-US security and defence dialogue as an important instrument in closer transatlantic cooperation;

    150. Notes the importance of greater collaboration in defence production and procurement, including through equal market access for both defence industries; takes note of the US National Defence Industry Strategy of January 2024 and its ambition to deepen industrial cooperation with partners; acknowledges the vast range of possible mutually beneficial areas of cooperation in defence and its positive implications for a stronger transatlantic partnership in times of increasing geopolitical competition; stresses, however, that such cooperation requires a level playing field, which is incompatible with the provisions of the US International Trade in Arms Regulation; calls, accordingly, upon the Commission to launch a dialogue with the United States to explore the possibilities of developing mutually beneficial defence industrial cooperation based on a legal framework that ensures a level transatlantic playing field;

    Partnership with the United Kingdom

    151. Recognises the UK’s significant contributions to Europe’s security and stability, as well as its commitment to shared defence objectives, which enhance collective security across Europe; welcomes the strong cooperation between the EU, EU Member States and the United Kingdom when it comes to supporting Ukraine, as well as bilateral agreements such as the Trinity House agreement between the UK and Germany to deepen defence cooperation; welcomes the participation of the UK Secretary of State for Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Affairs at the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in October 2024; calls for the EU and the UK to swiftly upgrade defence cooperation and become closer security partners by signing a joint declaration with concrete engagements and structured dialogue to strengthen EU-UK cooperation on the full range of foreign and security challenges the EU and UK face on the European continent; underlines in this regard the importance of closer cooperation on information and intelligence sharing, counter terrorism, military mobility, security and defence initiatives, crisis management, cyber defence, hybrid threats and FIMI, and on jointly addressing shared threats, such as the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction;

    152. Considers it essential to make progress on practical cooperation by formalising a joint declaration on a security and defence partnership with the United Kingdom as a means of strengthening European security and the European pillar of NATO, in particular in the context of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine; encourages the VP/HR to regularly invite the United Kingdom to informal Council meetings of foreign affairs (and defence) ministers to exchange views on issues of common concern while fully safeguarding the EU’s decision-making autonomy;

    Partnership with Western Balkan and Eastern European partners

    153. Believes that the EU’s security is closely interlinked with the security of its immediate European neighbours and that the EU has an interest in giving priority to its enlargement policy and strengthening the stability of its South-Eastern and Eastern European neighbours, in particular candidate countries; calls for stronger military-security cooperation, including civilian and military as well as policy and military security, cooperation with candidate countries and partners, particularly in areas such as resilience, cybersecurity, hybrid threats, border management, counter-terrorism and countering disinformation; reiterates the need for close cooperation with NATO in this regard;

    154. Highlights that the Union should facilitate the participation of European partners with a high level of alignment with CSDP matters, most notably the Western Balkans countries, in current and future programmes linked to the defence sector; reaffirms that thorough involvement of the candidate countries would substantially facilitate their accession process by increasing their industrial and operational capacities in the defence sector, thus increasing interoperability with EU Member States’ armed forces; is of the opinion that the comprehensive inclusion of the Western Balkans candidate countries in EU defence initiatives would represent a strategic investment, as well as an integral part of the EU’s efforts to counter the growing assertiveness and foreign interference orchestrated in those countries;

    155. Encourages the Member States to further utilise the European Peace Facility (EPF) for training and outfitting security services in South-Eastern and Eastern European partners hosting CSDP missions, particularly military police, medical and law enforcement infrastructure and to increase intelligence exchange capabilities via secure lines of communication;

    Partnership with the African Union and African countries

    156. Stresses the importance of the EU-Africa relationship for European security; considers it essential to significantly step up the EU’s partnerships with African countries;

    Partnership with the Indo-Pacific region

    157. Stresses the strategic significance of the Indo-Pacific region within the EU’s defence framework, recognising the necessity of addressing growing security concerns linked to China’s regional activities and their broader implications for global stability; considers it essential to strengthen the EU’s presence and partnerships in this region; is also aware of Taiwan’s leading role in high-tech development, and its extensive experience defending itself against China’s hybrid attacks, disinformation, and FIMI, which should be a foremost consideration when assessing the possibilities of strengthening multilateral exchanges and cooperation;

    158. Underscores the imperative for the EU of establishing more enduring collective security through a network of regional allies and partners, forming the conventional foundation of its engagement in the region; strongly welcomes the recent conclusion of the EU-Japan Security and Defence Partnership; believes that a further deepening of the strategic and defence partnership of the EU with Japan, and the development of regular dialogue, cooperation, and capacity building with other like-minded countries in the Indo-Pacific region, such as Australia, New Zealand, South Korea and Taiwan, are fundamental to advancing common security; reiterates its call on the EU for further engagement with emerging strategic partners in the region, such as Indonesia and Viet Nam; 

    Greater involvement of the European Parliament in the CSDP

    159. Stresses that the strengthening of the CSDP as a political priority in the tenth legislative term and the increase in spending on defence policies and programmes at EU level and by the Member States requires full parliamentary scrutiny and accountability;

    160. Calls, in this regard, for Parliament’s scrutiny, legislative and budgetary role over a growing range of defence initiatives across the EU institutions and in particular the work carried out under the CSDP to be reinforced, including by strengthening regular dialogue, the exchange of information and maintaining permanent channels of communication open between the VP/HR, the Commissioner for Defence and Space and the competent Parliament bodies; recommends the inclusion of regular intelligence updates to relevant parliamentary committees;

    161. Deplores that the lack of access to information means Parliament is not in a situation to properly scrutinise PESCO projects; reiterates its call to the Member States to submit an implementation report on PESCO projects to Parliament at least twice a year; further reiterates its call on the EEAS to regularly and comprehensively report on the implementation of the Strategic Compass and other security and defence initiatives and programmes to the Subcommittee on Security and Defence; further reiterates its call on the EEAS to regularly and comprehensively report on the implementation of the Strategic Compass, other security and defence initiatives and programmes and their assessment to Parliament’s Subcommittee on Security and Defence; stresses the need to improve the scrutiny of the implementation of defence industrial regulations by the introduction of the procedure for delegated acts;

    °

    ° °

    162. Instructs its President to forward this resolution to the European Council, the Council, the Vice-President of the Commission / High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, the President of the Commission and competent Commissioners, the UN Secretary-General, the NATO Secretary General, the President of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, the EU security and defence agencies and the governments and parliaments of the Member States and partner countries.

    * * *

     

    EXPLANATORY STATEMENT

    During the last years, and particularly since the beginning of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, the EU has had to face multiple and unprecedented threats to its security and new crises in its close geographical environment, including the consequences of the Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel in October, 2023.

     

    The EU has reacted to these negative developments by involving more deeply in European security and defence, exploring new directions and launching new initiatives to strengthen and develop its defence capabilities in a collective and cooperative manner.

     

    This first annual report on the implementation of the EU common security and defence policy (CSDP) under the tenth parliamentary term aims to present the assessment of the European Parliament on CSDP progress in the current geopolitical and security context and thus responds to the report of the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Policy, published on 20 June 2024 and entitled “Common Foreign and Security Policy Report – Our Priorities in 2024”. It also provides recommendations on the main avenues for strengthening policies and actions for the future along several dimensions, including institutional decision-making progress, the joint development of military and armament capabilities and the means of financing them.

     

    ANNEX: ENTITIES OR PERSONS FROM WHOM THE RAPPORTEUR HAS RECEIVED INPUT

    Pursuant to Article 8 of Annex I to the Rules of Procedure, the rapporteur declares that he has received input from the following entities or persons in the preparation of the report, until the adoption thereof in committee:

    Entity and/or person

    ESCRIBANO MECHANICAL AND ENGINEERIING

    Apple Inc.

    TECNOBIT (Grupo Oesia)

    SOPRA STERIA GROUP

    Human Rights Working Group of NCRI

    American Chamber of Commerce in Belgium

    Boeing International Corporation, Belgium

    General Electric Company Honeywell Europe, RTX Corporation W.L.

    Gore

    Ericsson

    US. Mission to the European Union

    IQM Quantumm Computers

    Rasmussen Global

    Munich Security Conference

    General Electric Company

    Business Bridge Europe

    Airbus

    Atlantic Council of the United States, Inc

    International Centre for Ukrainian Victory

    Prisoner’s defenders International Network

    Official Spanish Chamber of Commerce in Belgium and Luxembourg

    Deloitte Advisory

    Amazon Europe Core

    Indra

    International Committee in Search of Justice

     

    The list above is drawn up under the exclusive responsibility of the rapporteur.

     

    Where natural persons are identified in the list by their name, by their function or by both, the rapporteur declares that he has submitted to the natural persons concerned the European Parliament’s Data Protection Notice No 484 (https://www.europarl.europa.eu/data-protect/index.do), which sets out the conditions applicable to the processing of their personal data and the rights linked to that processing

    MINORITY POSITION

     

    pursuant to Rule 55(4) of the Rules of Procedure

    by Özlem Alev Demirel, Marc Botenga, Giorgos Georgiou (The Left)

     

    This report rightly states that considering the conflicts in Ukraine, Middle East, Indo-Pacific are escalating; diplomacy, arms control/disarmament should play a crucial role. Simultaneously it denies the escalating EU-role through either direct participation in, or fuelling conflicts with arms exports. EU does not appear as diplomatic force.

     

    We reject this report since it

     

    • uses Russia’s illegal war as pretext for massive armament and financing the defence industry, focuses solely on a military approach instead of diplomacy, demands secondary sanctions, calls for testing of (military) prototypes in cooperation with Ukrainian defence actors

    • promotes concept of “dual use” and procurement of hypersonic weapons, electronic warfare capabilities together with NATO

    • demands 0.25 % of MS GDP annually for military assistance for Ukraine, which will lead to cuts in social policy

    • calls for military spending above NATO’s target of 2% GDP

    • calls for lifting CFSP/CSDP  unanimity principle which further increases the power of big MS

    • advocates youth, peace and security (YPS) agenda in view of cooperation between defence institutions and universities, including military courses/exercises

     

    We demand:

    • establishment of a system of collective security along with diplomatic efforts to end ongoing wars and conflicts

    • achieving peace through conflict resolution, confidence-building, serious arms control, disarmament measures

    • strict application of Article 41.2 TEU

    INFORMATION ON ADOPTION IN COMMITTEE RESPONSIBLE

    Date adopted

    30.1.2025

     

     

     

    Result of final vote

    +:

    –:

    0:

    55

    19

    1

    Members present for the final vote

    Mika Aaltola, Petras Auštrevičius, Jordan Bardella, Dan Barna, Wouter Beke, Robert Biedroń, Ioan-Rareş Bogdan, Marc Botenga, Grzegorz Braun, Sebastião Bugalho, Danilo Della Valle, Özlem Demirel, Elio Di Rupo, Loucas Fourlas, Michael Gahler, Giorgos Georgiou, Raphaël Glucksmann, Bernard Guetta, Rima Hassan, Rasa Juknevičienė, Sandra Kalniete, Łukasz Kohut, Rihards Kols, Andrey Kovatchev, Vilis Krištopans, Nathalie Loiseau, Claudiu Manda, David McAllister, Vangelis Meimarakis, Sven Mikser, Francisco José Millán Mon, Arkadiusz Mularczyk, Leoluca Orlando, Kostas Papadakis, Tonino Picula, Thijs Reuten, Nacho Sánchez Amor, Andreas Schieder, Alexander Sell, Villy Søvndal, Davor Ivo Stier, Sebastiaan Stöteler, Stanislav Stoyanov, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, Michał Szczerba, António Tânger Corrêa, Marta Temido, Cristian Terheş, Riho Terras, Hermann Tertsch, Pierre-Romain Thionnet, Sebastian Tynkkynen, Reinier Van Lanschot, Roberto Vannacci, Hilde Vautmans, Harald Vilimsky, Željana Zovko

    Substitutes present for the final vote

    Jaume Asens Llodrà, Malik Azmani, Engin Eroglu, Sandra Gómez López, Evin Incir, András László, Ana Catarina Mendes, Hans Neuhoff, Nicolás Pascual de la Parte, Chloé Ridel, Tineke Strik, Şerban Dimitrie Sturdza, Ingeborg Ter Laak, Matej Tonin, Ivaylo Valchev, Isabel Wiseler-Lima

    Members under Rule 216(7) present for the final vote

    Nikos Papandreou, Catarina Vieira

     

    MIL OSI Europe News –

    February 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Renewable energy: rural areas can be the EU’s green powerhouse

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Lewis Dijkstra, Team Leader Urban and Territorial Analysis, Joint Research Centre (JRC)

    The European Union aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by at least 55% in 2030 compared to 1990 levels, and to become the first carbon-neutral economy by 2050. This ambitious goal requires a radical increase in the production of green energy within a relatively short timeframe. The untapped potential of rural areas in the union offers a way forward.

    Rural areas could produce more energy than we need

    Rural areas cover more than 80% of the EU’s territory and are host to around 30% of its population. Our work at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) shows that rural territories already generate the largest share of green electricity (72%) from the three most prominent renewable technologies: solar photovoltaic, onshore wind and hydropower. The remaining share of renewable energy is produced in towns and suburbs (22%) and cities (6%). Germany, Spain, France, Italy and Sweden are the top five renewable energy producers in the union, accounting for 68% of its total production from solar, onshore wind and hydropower installations.

    But there is more. According to our analyses, rural areas also possess the highest untapped potential of renewable energy production–nearly 80%. Theoretically, they could produce enough to meet the total energy demand of the EU. We estimate that the total potential of solar, onshore wind and hydropower energy production in rural areas nears 12,500 terawatt hours per year. That’s more than five times the amount of electricity the union consumed in 2023, and it surpasses total energy consumption (which includes sources such as gas, oil and coal) for that year, too.

    Technologies that suit the land

    All this energy could be produced in rural areas without disrupting existing agricultural systems, landscapes and natural resources. Rural areas could produce up to 60 times more solar energy than what they currently deliver, quadruple their output from wind, and boost hydropower production by 25%. Spain, Romania, France, Portugal and Italy are the five EU countries with the highest combined (solar, wind and hydropower) untapped potential: together, they account for 67% of the EU’s potential, with contributions from rural areas ranging from 92% in France to 49% in Italy.

    Overall, solar panels installed on the ground can make the biggest contribution to green energy production in the EU. However, rural areas across the union are highly diverse, so choosing the right technology would depend on local characteristics. Mountainous areas with abundant water resources are a good fit for hydropower production, while rural municipalities with large areas of suitable land lend themselves to solar or wind energy, depending on sun irradiation and wind speed. In rural areas where wind and land are insufficient, rooftop photovoltaic systems are a good option.

    Boosting clean energy production can be a win-win

    Rural areas are key to producing more renewable energy, as almost 80% of suitable, available land is located there. In addition, some of these areas are facing demographic and economic decline and are already the target of measures aimed at making them stronger, resilient and prosperous–as part of the EU’s long-term vision for rural areas. In this context, ensuring that these areas benefit economically from hosting more renewable energy projects makes them even more enticing. It also aligns with political considerations, as energy independence is a key part of the EU’s goal of strategic autonomy.




    À lire aussi :
    Could the EU’s Green Deal provide security benefits?


    Addressing local concerns and fostering acceptance

    While the potential offered by renewables is unquestionable, their production sites can face resistance from communities concerned about impacts on the local economy and quality of life. Seeing land used to produce energy with little local employment and seemingly for the benefit of large companies can also lead to resistance. Other concerns include competition for land use in areas where income is tied to other industries (such as agriculture or tourism), and the potential environmental impact of solar panels and wind or hydropower plants on rustic landscapes. With these concerns in mind, we identified portions of land suitable to host renewable energy plants that comprise roughly 3.4% of the EU’s surface. We excluded protected nature sites and biodiversity areas, forests and water bodies. We used strict limits on the use of agricultural land for energy production by only considering land that has been abandoned or has a very low productivity. Finally, we created buffer zones around infrastructure and settlements to minimise disturbance and safeguard natural beauty and cultural heritage.

    Engaging local communities to find solutions

    In our report, several case studies show the successful implementation of renewable energy projects in rural areas, driven by community engagement, collaboration and innovative financing models. From the first community-owned turbine in southern Europe in Catalonia, Spain, to a commercial energy company giving part of its profits to a local cause chosen with an energy community in the northern Netherlands, these cases highlight the potential for such projects to contribute to energy security, produce economic and social benefits and promote environmental sustainability.

    These case studies show that active involvement of local communities from the early stages of renewable energy projects can foster acceptance. Citizens who are actively engaged or even share ownership in small- or medium-scale projects become more supportive. Beyond seeing profits stay local, engaged communities can mitigate negative effects of production by, for instance, choosing where to locate new energy plants.

    Our report also offers an overview of renewable energy communities’ role in ensuring a sustainable energy transition in which rural areas are not left behind. The number of renewable energy communities in the EU is rising and, although an exact count is unavailable, it is estimated that there were over 4,000 of them, with some 900,000 members, in 2023. These communities are mainly concentrated in northwest Europe, and a high proportion are rural. Beyond energy communities, place-based approaches, where local populations and administrations are engaged from the early stages and see clear benefits, can make an important contribution to our sustainable transition.

    Lewis Dijkstra ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Renewable energy: rural areas can be the EU’s green powerhouse – https://theconversation.com/renewable-energy-rural-areas-can-be-the-eus-green-powerhouse-250669

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    February 27, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Economics: Germany card payments market to surpass $850 billion in 2029, forecasts GlobalData

    Source: GlobalData

    Germany card payments market to surpass $850 billion in 2029, forecasts GlobalData

    Posted in Banking

    The Germany card payments market is forecast to register a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.9% between 2025 and 2029 to reach EUR788.1 billion ($852.1 billion) in 2029, supported by a constant consumer shift towards electronic payments, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

    GlobalData’s report, “Germany Cards and Payments – Opportunities and Risks,” reveals that card payment value in Germany registered a growth of 11.2% in 2023, driven by the rise in consumer spending. The value grew further to register an estimated growth of 6.4% to reach EUR 574.6 billion ($621.3 billion) in 2024.

    Ravi Sharma, Lead Banking and Payments Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Germany’s payment card market is experiencing rapid growth, with a decline in cash usage. It is expected to continue expanding in 2025, driven by factors such as a 100% adult banked population, the convenience of electronic payments, improving payment infrastructure, the increasing preference for contactless payments, and the growth in e-commerce payments.”

    Debit cards are the most popular card type in Germany, accounting for a significant share of total card payments. While debit cards were traditionally used for cash withdrawals, their usage for payments is gradually increasing. This growth can be attributed to the rising adoption and usage of contactless debit cards, which offer convenience and speed for low-value transactions.

    On the other hand, credit and charge cards have a lower adoption in Germany. This can be attributed to the debt-averse nature of German consumers. However, banks are encouraging the adoption and usage of credit cards by offering value-added benefits such as installment facilities, reward points, and discounts at partner retailers.

    Despite the growth in the payment card market, Germany still has a strong inclination towards cash usage. However, the EU-wide interchange fee regulation, the growth of contactless payments, the emergence of digital-only banks, and a robust e-commerce market have contributed to a gradual increase in payment card usage.

    Banks and payment companies are also focusing on expanding payment infrastructure to encourage businesses to go digital. As of July 2024, there were 3.1 million SMEs operating in the country—accounting for 99.4% of German firms. To serve them, POS providers offer low-cost mobile POS (mPOS) solutions. For example, Worldline subsidiary PAYONE offers Tap On Mobile, which enables merchants to convert Android-based mobile devices into POS terminals to accept payment via cards and mobile wallets.

    Sharma concludes: “Looking ahead, a continued growth in the total card payments is expected to expand in Germany by 9% in 2025. The key drivers of this growth include the ongoing efforts to promote electronic payments, the expansion of the e-commerce market, and the availability of value-added benefits for cardholders. However, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and economic slowdown will remain challenges.”

    MIL OSI Economics –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI China: China, Germany business sectors vow to boost cooperation

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    Around 200 Chinese and German business leaders came together in Stuttgart, Germany this week with the goal of boosting cooperation between the two nations.

    Representatives from business associations and enterprises met at the China-Germany Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum on Monday.

    The theme of the forum, organized by China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT), was “New Opportunities for China-Germany Economic and Trade Cooperation in the Context of Global Supply Chain Restructuring.”

    It has been five months since CCPIT organized a Chinese business delegation to visit Germany, said Ren Hongbin, chairman of CCPIT. He emphasized that the visit aims to implement the consensus reached by the leaders of both countries and to deepen practical cooperation between the two nations’ business communities, he said.

    The CCPIT is willing to join hands with German partners to tap into the potential of trade cooperation, and to continue providing opportunities for high-quality German products such as autos and agricultural machinery to enter the Chinese market and strengthen cooperation in industrial and supply chains, Ren said.

    The CCPIT intends to promote the development of bilateral investment, create a good environment for business cooperation, and encourage more competent Chinese companies to invest in Germany, Ren added. This will begin a new chapter in high-level China-Germany economic and trade cooperation, he said.

    Despite the rise of trade protectionism, the trend of economic globalization is irreversible, and all parties should strengthen international cooperation based on trust, said Johannes Jung, director of strategy, commercial law, foreign trade and Europe at the Baden-Wuerttemberg Ministry of Economic Affairs.

    Increased face-to-face exchanges between the business communities of both countries will help enhance mutual understanding, deepen practical cooperation, and achieve mutual benefit and win-win results, said Jung.

    “As the second and third largest economies in the world, China and Germany have always been trustworthy partners. They have achieved fruitful cooperation in high-end manufacturing, green energy, technological innovation, finance, and pharmaceuticals,” Chinese Consul General in Frankfurt Huang Yiyang said.

    The economies of China and Germany are highly complementary, and their development philosophies are deeply aligned, allowing both countries to make greater contributions to global economic development, said Huang.

    Also at the forum, Lin Shunjie, chairman of China International Exhibition Center Group Limited, presented the third China International Supply Chain Expo, which is set to kick off on July 16 in China.

    The company signed letters of intent and cooperation memorandums for the exhibition with German partners like Wolqe GmbH and the China Network Baden-Wuerttemberg. Enditem

    MIL OSI China News –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Pedestrian dies following Courtenay Place crash

    Source: New Zealand Police (National News)

    A 66-year-old woman from Germany has died in hospital following a crash on Courtenay Place on Monday night (24 February).

    The woman was a pedestrian and was hit by a vehicle as she crossed the street about 8.25pm. Sadly, she passed away in hospital this afternoon.

    The victim’s family have travelled to New Zealand. Police are providing them with support and liaising with the German Embassy.

    An investigation into the crash and its cause remains ongoing.

    No charges have been laid at this time.

    We would still like to hear from anyone with footage of the incident. If you have any information that could help our enquiries, please update us online or call 105. Please use the reference number 250224/0187.

    ENDS

    Issued by the Police Media Centre

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI China: Cruise ship ‘Europa 2’ arrives at Tianjin International Cruise Home Port

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Cruise ship ‘Europa 2’ arrives at Tianjin International Cruise Home Port

    Updated: February 26, 2025 08:54 Xinhua
    Foreign tourists are ready for their entry process in north China’s Tianjin Municipality, Feb. 25, 2025. With more than 460 passengers from Germany, Australia, Austria and other countries and regions, the cruise ship “Europa 2” arrived at Tianjin International Cruise Home Port on Tuesday, marking the first cruise ship visiting ports in Tianjin this year. [Photo/Xinhua]
    Foreign tourists line up for entry process at Tianjin International Cruise Home Port in north China’s Tianjin Municipality, Feb. 25, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    A foreign tourist is attracted by lion dance performance at Tianjin International Cruise Home Port in north China’s Tianjin Municipality, Feb. 25, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    Foreign tourists take a shuttle bus at Tianjin International Cruise Home Port to visit scenic spots in Beijing, capital of China, Feb. 25, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    Foreign tourists take a shuttle bus at Tianjin International Cruise Home Port to visit Huangyaguan section of the Great Wall in north China’s Tianjin Municipality, Feb. 25, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]
    An aerial drone photo taken on Feb. 25, 2025 shows the cruise ship “Europa 2” berthing at Tianjin International Cruise Home Port in north China’s Tianjin Municipality. [Photo/Xinhua]
    An aerial drone photo taken on Feb. 25, 2025 shows the cruise ship “Europa 2” entering Tianjin International Cruise Home Port in north China’s Tianjin Municipality. [Photo/Xinhua]

    MIL OSI China News –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Economics: Isabel Schnabel: No longer convenient? Safe asset abundance and r*

    Source: European Central Bank

    Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England’s 2025 BEAR Conference

    London, 25 February 2025

    Over the past few years, global bond investors have fundamentally reappraised the expected future course of monetary policy.

    Even as inflation has receded and policy restriction has been dialled back, current market prices suggest that maintaining price stability will require higher real interest rates in the future than before the pandemic.

    In my remarks today, I will argue that the shift in market expectations about the level of r* – the rate to which the economy is expected to converge in the long run once current shocks have run their course – is consistent with two sets of observations.

    The first is that the era during which risks to inflation have persistently been to the downside is likely to have come to an end.

    Growing geopolitical fragmentation, climate change and labour scarcity pose measurable upside risks to inflation over the medium to long term. This is especially true as the recent inflation surge may have permanently scarred consumers’ inflation expectations and may have lowered the bar for firms to pass through adverse cost-push shocks to consumer prices.

    The second observation is that we are transitioning from a global “savings glut” towards a global “bond glut”.

    Persistently large fiscal deficits and central bank balance sheet normalisation are gradually reducing the safety and liquidity premia that investors have long been willing to pay to hold scarce government bonds. The fall in the “convenience yield”, in turn, reverses a key factor that had contributed to the decline in real long-term interest rates, and hence r*, during the 2010s.

    The implications for monetary policy are threefold.

    First, a higher r* calls for careful monitoring of when monetary policy ceases to be restrictive. Second, central bank balance sheet policies may themselves affect the level of r* through the convenience yield, making them potentially less effective than previously thought. Third, because central bank reserves also offer convenience services to banks, it is optimal to provide reserves elastically on demand as quantitative tightening reduces excess liquidity.

    Upward shift in r* signals lasting change in the inflation regime

    Starting in 2021, long-term government bond yields rose measurably across advanced economies. Today, the ten-year yield of a German government bond is about two and a half percentage points higher than in late 2021 (Slide 2, left-hand side).

    What is remarkable about the rise in nominal bond yields in the euro area over this period is that it was not driven by a change in inflation compensation. Investors’ views about future inflation prospects are broadly the same today as they were three years ago (Slide 2, right-hand side).

    Rather, nominal interest rates rose because real interest rates increased. Euro area real long-term rates are now trading at a level that is substantially higher than the level prevailing during most of the post-2008 global financial crisis period (Slide 3, left-hand side).

    Part of the rise in real long-term interest rates is a mechanical response to the tightening of monetary policy.

    Long-term interest rates are an average of expected short-term interest rates over the lifetime of the bond, plus a term premium. So, when we raised our key policy rates in response to the surge in inflation, the average real rate expected to prevail over the next ten years increased.[1]

    What is more striking, however, is that investors also fundamentally revised the real short-term rate expected to prevail once inflation has sustainably returned to our target. This rate is typically taken as a proxy for the natural rate of interest, or r*.

    The real one-year rate expected in four years (1y4y), for example, is now at the highest level since the sovereign debt crisis (Slide 3, right-hand side). Even at very distant horizons, such as in nine years, the expected real short-term rate (1y9y) has increased measurably in recent years.

    To a significant extent, these developments reflect a genuine reappraisal of the real equilibrium interest rate that is consistent with our 2% inflation target. A rise in the term premium, which is the excess return investors demand for the uncertainty surrounding the future interest rate path, can explain less than half of the change in the real 1y4y rate.[2]

    These forward rates have also remained surprisingly stable since 2023, with a standard deviation of around just 15 basis points, despite the measurable decline in inflation, the protracted weakness in aggregate demand and the series of structural headwinds facing the euro area.

    We are seeing a similar upward shift in model-based estimates of r*. According to estimates by ECB economists, the natural rate of interest in the euro area has increased appreciably over the past two years, and even more so than what market-based real forward rates would suggest (Slide 4).[3]

    This result is robust across many models and even holds when accounting for the significant uncertainty surrounding these estimates. In other words, for drawing conclusions about the directional change of r* from the rise in market and model-based measures, the actual rate level is largely irrelevant.

    What matters is the direction of travel. And that is unambiguous: we are unlikely to return to the pre-pandemic macroeconomic environment in which central banks had to bring real rates into deeply negative territory to deliver on their price stability mandate. This suggests that the nature of the inflation process is likely to have changed lastingly.

    Real interest rates are only loosely tied to trend growth

    Why do markets expect such a trend reversal for real interest rates in the euro area?

    One answer is that some of the forces that weighed on inflation during the 2010s are now reversing.

    Globalisation is a case in point. The integration of China and other emerging market economies into the global production network and the broad-based decline in tariff and non-tariff barriers were important factors reducing price pressures in advanced economies over several decades.[4]

    Today, protectionist policies, the weaponisation of critical raw materials and geopolitical fragmentation are increasingly dismantling the foundations on which trade improved the welfare of consumers worldwide.

    These forces can be expected to have first-order effects on inflation.

    European gas prices, for example, are up by 65% compared with a year ago despite the significant decline over recent days. Oil prices, too, have increased since September of last year, in part reflecting the marked depreciation of the euro.

    While commodity prices are inherently volatile, and may reverse quickly, other deglobalisation factors, such as reshoring and the lengthening of supply chains, are likely to increase price pressures more lastingly.

    And yet, the persistent rise in real forward rates poses a conundrum in the euro area.

    The reason is that increases in long-term real interest rates are typically thought of as being associated with improvements on the supply side of the economy, such as productivity growth, the labour force and the capital stock.

    At present, however, these factors do not point towards an increase in r* in the euro area.

    Potential growth has generally been revised lower, not higher, as many of the factors currently holding back consumption and especially investment are likely to be structural in nature, such as a rapidly ageing population and deteriorating competitiveness.

    The weak link between the structural factors driving potential growth and r* is, however, not exceptional from a historical perspective.

    Indeed, over time there has been little evidence of a stable relationship between real interest rates and drivers of potential growth, such as demographics and productivity.[5] They have had the expected relationship in some subsamples but not in others.[6]

    Similarly, in the most popular framework for estimating r*, the seminal model by Laubach and Williams, potential growth has played an increasingly subordinated role in explaining why the natural rate of interest has remained at a depressed level in the United States following the global financial crisis (Slide 5, left-hand side).[7]

    Rather, the persistence in the decline in r* is explained to a large extent by a residual factor, which lacks economic interpretation.

    Moreover, if growth was the main driver of r*, then one would expect all real rates in the economy to adjust in a similar way. But while real rates on safe assets have declined since the early 1990s, the return on private capital has remained relatively constant.[8]

    Decline in the convenience yield is pushing r* up

    A growing body of research attempts to reconcile these puzzles. Many studies attribute a significant role to the money-like convenience services that safe and liquid assets, such as government bonds, provide to market participants.

    The yield that investors are willing to forgo in equilibrium for these services is what economists call the “convenience yield”.[9]

    This yield, in turn, critically depends on the net supply of safe assets: When these are scarce, investors are willing to pay a premium to hold them, depressing the real equilibrium rate of interest. And when they are abundant, the premium falls, putting upward pressure on r*.

    New research by economists at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System shows how incorporating the convenience yield into the Laubach and Williams framework significantly improves the explanatory power of the model.[10]

    In fact, the convenience yield can explain most of the residual factor and is estimated to have caused a large part of the secular decline in the real natural rate in the United States (Slide 5, right-hand side).

    Liquidity requirements that regulators imposed on banks in the wake of the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet policies and the integration of many large emerging market economies into the global economy have led to an unprecedented increase in the demand for safe and liquid assets, driving up their convenience yield.[11]

    These findings are in line with earlier research showing that the convenience yield has played an equally important role in depressing the real equilibrium rate in many other advanced economies, including the euro area, during the 2010s.[12]

    This process is now reversing. According to the work by the Federal Reserve economists, r* has recently increased visibly, contrary to what the model without a convenience yield would suggest.

    Asset swap spreads are a good indicator of the convenience yield. Both interest rate swaps and government bonds are essentially risk-free assets, so they should in principle yield the same return.

    For a long time, this has been the case: before the start of quantitative easing (QE) in the euro area in 2015, the spread between a ten-year German Bund and a swap of equivalent maturity was close to zero on average (Slide 6, left-hand side).

    Over time, however, with the start of QE and the parallel fiscal consolidation by governments reducing the net supply of government bonds in the market, the premium that investors were willing to pay to secure their convenience services rose measurably. At the peak, ten-year Bunds were trading nearly 80 basis points below swap rates.

    But since about mid-2022 the asset swap spread has persistently narrowed. In October of last year it turned positive for the first time in ten years, and it now stands close to the pre-QE average again.

    Other measures of the convenience yield paint a similar picture. The spread between ten-year bonds issued by the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) and German Bunds has narrowed from about
    -80 basis points in October 2022 to just -30 basis points today (Slide 6, right-hand side).[13]

    Furthermore, in the repo market, we have observed a steady and measurable rise in overnight rates and a convergence across collateral classes (Slide 7, left-hand side).[14]

    Over the past few years, transactions secured by German government collateral, in particular, were trading at a significant premium over others. This premium has declined considerably, reflecting a reduction in collateral scarcity.

    Finally, in the United States, the spread between AAA corporate bonds and US Treasuries has declined from almost 100 basis points in 2022 to 40 basis points today (Slide 7, right-hand side). It currently stands close to its historical low.

    Global savings glut has turned into a global bond glut

    All this suggests that, today, market participants value the liquidity and safety services of government bonds less than they did in the past, as the net supply of government bonds has increased and continues to increase at a notable pace.

    In Germany and the United States, for example, the sovereign bond free float as a share of the outstanding volume has increased by more than ten percentage points over the past three years (Slide 8, left-hand side). It is projected to steadily increase further in the coming years.

    So, the global savings glut appears to have turned into a global bond glut, which reduces the marginal benefit of holding government bonds.

    There are several factors contributing to the rise in the bond free float.[15]

    First, and most importantly, net borrowing by governments remains substantial. The public deficit is estimated to have been around 5% of GDP across advanced economies last year, and it is expected to decline only marginally in the coming years (Slide 8, right-hand side).

    Second, rising geopolitical fragmentation is likely to be contributing to a drop in demand for government bonds in some parts of the world.

    In the United States, for example, there has been a marked decline in the share of foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities since the global financial crisis (Slide 9, left-hand side). It is now at its lowest level in more than 20 years.[16] The US Administration’s attempt to reduce the current account deficit is bound to further depress foreign holdings of US Treasuries.

    Third, central banks are in the process of normalising their balance sheets (Slide 9, right-hand side). Unlike when central banks announced large-scale asset purchases, the effects of quantitative tightening (QT) on yields are likely to materialise only over time, as many central banks take a gradual approach when reducing the size of their balance sheets.

    Higher r* calls for cautious approach to rate easing

    These developments have three important implications for monetary policy.

    One is that central banks are dialling back policy restriction in an environment in which structural factors are putting upward pressure on the real equilibrium rate. Recent analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for example, suggests that a fall in the convenience yield to pre-2000 average levels could raise natural rates by about 70 basis points.[17]

    While a significant part of these effects may have already materialised, other factors could push real rates up further over the medium term. The IMF projects that, in the coming years, overall global investment – public and private – will reach the highest share of GDP since the 1980s, also reflecting borrowing needs associated with the digital and green transitions as well as defence spending.

    Recent global initiatives aimed at boosting the development and use of artificial intelligence underscore these projections. Overall, these forces may well be larger than those that continue to weigh on the real equilibrium rate, such as an ageing population.

    Central banks, therefore, need to proceed cautiously. We do not fully understand how the pervasive changes to our economies are affecting the steady state, or what the path to the new steady state will look like.

    In this environment, the most appropriate way to conduct monetary policy is to look at the incoming data to assess how fast, and to what extent, changes to our key policy rates are being transmitted to the economy.

    For the euro area, this assessment suggests that, over the past year, the degree of policy restraint has declined appreciably – to a point where we can no longer say with confidence that our policy is restrictive.

    According to the most recent bank lending survey, for example, 90% of banks say that the general level of interest rates has no impact on the demand for corporate loans, with 8% saying that it contributes to boosting credit demand (Slide 10, left-hand side). This is a marked shift from a year ago when a third of all banks reported that interest rates were weighing on credit demand.

    For mortgages, the evidence is even more striking. Today almost half of the banks report that the level of interest rates supports loan demand, while a year ago more than 40% said the opposite. As a result, a net 42% of banks report an increase in the demand for mortgages, close to the historical high.

    Survey evidence is gradually showing up in actual lending data. Credit to firms expanded by 1.5% in December, the highest rate in a year and a half, and credit to households for house purchases grew by 1.1% (Slide 10, right-hand side).

    Strong bank balance sheets are contributing to the recovery and, given the lags in policy transmission, further easing is still in the pipeline.

    Lending conditions are also relatively favourable from the perspective of borrowers. The spread between the composite cost of borrowing for households and sovereign bond yields is well below the level seen over most of the 2010s and is now close to the historical average (Slide 11).[18]

    And while some maturing loans from the period of very low interest rates will still need to be refinanced at higher rates, over time this debt has declined in real terms and interest payments as a fraction of net income are buffered by rising nominal wages.

    Overall, therefore, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that current financing conditions are materially holding back consumption and investment. The fact that growth remains subdued cannot and should not be taken as evidence that policy is restrictive.

    As the ECB’s most recent corporate telephone survey suggests, the continued weakness in manufacturing is increasingly viewed by firms as structural, reflecting a combination of high energy and labour costs, an overly inhibitive and uncertain regulatory environment and increased import competition, especially from China.[19]

    Such structural headwinds reduce the economy’s sensitivity to changes in monetary policy.

    QE’s impact on r* is reducing its effectiveness

    The second implication from the impact of the convenience yield on r* is related to the use of balance sheet policies.

    If QE raises the convenience yield by reducing the net supply of government bonds, it may ultimately lower the real equilibrium interest rate. Importantly, this channel – the convenience yield channel – is distinct from the term premium channel.[20]

    So, doing QE could be like chasing a moving target.

    It reduces long-run rates by compressing the term premium.[21] But by making investors willing to pay a higher safety premium when the supply of safe assets shrinks, it may also reduce the interest rate level below which monetary policy stimulates growth and inflation.

    This can also be seen by looking at how QE changes the balance of savings and investments. Fiscal deficits absorb private savings and thereby increase r*. By doing QE, central banks absorb fiscal deficits and thereby lower r*.

    In other words, central bank balance sheet policies may be less effective than previously thought.[22] This could be an additional factor explaining why large-scale asset purchases did not succeed in bringing inflation back to 2% before the pandemic.

    Of course, the same logic holds true when central banks reduce their balance sheets.

    If QE contributed to depressing r*, QT will raise it. Any rise in real rates may then be less consequential for growth and inflation. It would then be misguided to compensate for higher long-term interest rates resulting from QT with lower short-term rates.

    This is indeed what recent research suggests: QT announcements tend to cause a significant decline in the convenience yield of safe assets.[23]

    There is one caveat, however.

    QE and QT are implemented by issuing and absorbing central bank reserves, which themselves are safe assets – in fact, reserves are the economy’s ultimate safe asset because they are free of liquidity and interest rate risk.[24]

    Banks therefore highly value the convenience services of central bank reserves. So, when evaluating the effects of central bank balance sheet policies on r*, it is necessary to consider both the asset and liability side.

    Research by economists from the Bank of England does exactly that.[25] They show that the effects of QT on the real equilibrium rate depend on the relative strength of two factors.

    One is the effect on the bond convenience yield, which causes r* to rise as the supply of government bonds increases.

    The other is the effect on the convenience yield of reserves. That effect is highly non-linear: when reserves are scarce, banks are willing to pay a high mark-up on wholesale interest rates, as was evident in the United States in 2019 when repo rates surged strongly.

    So, if QT leads to a scarcity of reserves, it may cause the overall convenience yield to rise, and hence equilibrium rates to fall.

    Convenience of reserves and the ECB’s operational framework

    At the ECB, we took this factor into account when we reviewed our operational framework last year.[26] This is the third implication for monetary policy.

    The new framework allows banks to demand as many reserves as they find optimal at a spread that is 15 basis points above the rate which the ECB pays to banks when they deposit their excess reserves with us. So, the opportunity cost of holding reserves is comparatively small, given the convenience services reserves provide to banks.

    In addition, our framework allows banks themselves to generate an increase in safe assets – by pledging non-high quality liquid assets (non-HQLA) in our lending operations. In doing so, banks on average generate € 0.92 of net HQLA for every euro that they borrow from the Eurosystem.[27]

    Our framework therefore recognises that years of crises, more stringent regulatory requirements and the advance of new technologies – some of which increase the risk of “digital” bank runs – imply that banks may wish to hold larger liquidity buffers than they historically have done.

    Supplying central bank reserves elastically will ensure that reserves will not become scarce as balance sheet normalisation proceeds. And if banks access our standard refinancing operations when they are in need of liquidity, they will also not have to adjust their lending activities in response to the decline in reserves, as is sometimes feared.[28]

    For now, the recourse to our lending operations has been limited, as there is still ample excess liquidity. But as we transition over the coming years to a world in which reserves are less abundant, banks will increasingly start borrowing reserves via our operations.

    Three ideas could be explored to make this transition as smooth as possible.

    First, regular testing requirements in the counterparty framework could help ensure operational readiness while also allowing counterparties to become more comfortable with participating in our operations. A lack of operational readiness was one of the factors contributing to the March 2023 turmoil in the United States.[29]

    Second, and related, obtaining central bank funding requires thorough collateral management, especially if the collateral framework is as broad as the Eurosystem’s. For non-HQLA collateral, in particular, the pricing and due diligence process can be operationally complex and time-consuming.

    For this reason, central banks sometimes require counterparties to pre-position collateral to ensure that funding can be readily obtained.[30] In the euro area, some banks already pre-position collateral voluntarily, in particular non-marketable collateral which cannot be used in private repo markets (Slide 12, left-hand side).

    Banks could be further encouraged to mobilise with the central bank the collateral that is eligible but currently stays idle on their balance sheets. This would increase operational readiness, mitigate financial stability risks and reduce precautionary reserve demand as banks would have higher certainty that they can access central bank liquidity at short notice.

    In the Eurosystem, given its broad collateral framework, such an approach may be more effective in helping banks adapt their liquidity management to the characteristics of a demand-driven operational framework compared with a blanket requirement to pre-position collateral.

    Finally, in some jurisdictions central bank operations are fully integrated into the platforms commonly used by banks to operate in private repo markets.

    This offers banks a number of advantages, including seamless access to transactions with the market and with the central bank, and – depending on the design of clearing arrangements and accounting rules – it could potentially allow banks to net out their positions, thereby freeing up valuable balance sheet space.

    Offering banks the possibility to access Eurosystem refinancing operations through a centrally cleared infrastructure could contribute to making our operations more economical in an environment in which dealer balance sheets are increasingly constrained (Slide 12, right-hand side).[31]

    The design of such arrangements should preserve equal treatment across our diverse range of counterparties, regardless of their size, jurisdiction and business model, maintain the possibility to mobilise a broad range of collateral and be compatible with our risk control framework.

    Further reflection is needed on these considerations, including a comprehensive assessment of the benefits and costs.

    Conclusion

    Let me conclude.

    The shocks experienced since the pandemic led to an abrupt end of the secular downward trend in real interest rates. Whether this will be merely an interlude, or the beginning of a new era, is inherently difficult to predict.

    But looking at the ongoing transformational shifts in the balance of global savings and investments, as well as at the fundamental challenges facing our societies today, higher real interest rates seem to be the most likely scenario for the future.

    This has implications for our monetary policy. Central banks will need to adjust to the new environment, both to secure price stability over the medium term and to implement monetary policy efficiently.

    Thank you.

    MIL OSI Economics –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Director General, ILO, Mr. Gilbert F. Houngbo Visits One of Largest Global Capability Centres (GCC) in Gurugram

    Source: Government of India

    Director General, ILO, Mr. Gilbert F. Houngbo Visits One of Largest Global Capability Centres (GCC) in Gurugram

    India’s GCCs Leading Strategic Enterprise Transformation

    GCCs Emerge as Centres of Excellence and Innovation Hubs

    Posted On: 25 FEB 2025 7:41PM by PIB Delhi

    During his ongoing visit to New Delhi, a delegation of ILO, headed by Director General, ILO, Mr. Gilbert F. Houngbo, visited the HSBC Global Capability Centre (GCC) today in Gurugram. The visit was organized by Ministry of Labour & Employment and Confederation of Indian Industry (CII). Ms. Sumita Dawra, Secretary, Ministry of Labour & Employment, Ms. Michiko Miyamoto, Country Director, ILO Mr. Arindam Bagchi, Ambassador and Permanent Representative of India to the United Nations in Geneva and other senior officials also participated.

    Secretary, MoL&E, Ms. Sumita Dawra, underscored the contribution of GCCs and growing prominence of India as a key pillar of global digital economy. She highlighted that India is home to over 1,700 GCCs, employing 1.9 million professionals and generating $64.6 billion in revenue as of 2024. Key GCC hubs are located in Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Pune, Chennai, Mumbai, and the National Capital Region (NCR). The sector is projected to expand to $105 billion by 2030, with around 2,400 GCCs employing over 2.8 million people, solidifying India’s role as a global hub for enterprise operations and innovation.

    DG, ILO, Mr. Gilbert F. Houngbo, mentioned that India is becoming more competitive owing to its large and diverse talent pool that it can tap into for innovation and business development. He observed that growing proliferation of GCCs across upcoming sectors like AI, cybersecurity, cloud computing, semiconductors, etc., is a new trend.

    With 40% of digital transformation projects in GCCs, India is now a center for high-value technology-driven solutions. GCCs emerging from different geographies viz, Germany, UK, Japan, Nordic countries, is another significant development observed in recent years, it was further informed.

    A significant shift towards diversification of operations, with evolution towards higher value services, is seen, as GCCs in India transition from data processing to knowledge processing over the years.

    With availability of talented pool of young professionals, India is emerging as an innovation hub. Hybrid work models, diversity, and upskilling in AI, cybersecurity, and blockchain and industry-academia partnerships are creating future-ready professionals. Emergence of GCCs in India has contributed positively to economic growth, job creation, technology transfer and skill development, among others benefits for local economy.

    It was also discussed that a case study on India’s growth story as a GCC hub, while promoting business growth along with ensuring social protection and regulatory compliances, would be developed in partnership with ILO and showcased at various international forums. 

    *****

    Himanshu Pathak

    (Release ID: 2106222) Visitor Counter : 42

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Regional Dialogue on Social Justice Hosted by India Concludes at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi

    Source: Government of India

    Regional Dialogue on Social Justice Hosted by India Concludes at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi

    Over 500 Participants from Asia-Asia Pacific Region and beyond Enriched Regional Dialogue

    Collaborative Approaches Explored for Responsible Business Practices, Promoting Decent Work within Global Value Chains and Harnessing AI for Decent Work & Equity

    Coalition Partners Reaffirmed the Need for Continued Dialogue And Multi-Stakeholder Collaboration to Drive Global Agenda for Social Justice

    Posted On: 25 FEB 2025 7:39PM by PIB Delhi

    Ministry of Labour and Employment and Employees’ State Insurance Corporation (ESIC) in collaboration with Global Coalition for Social Justice and International Labour Organization, with the support Confederation of Industry (CII) – Employers Federation of India (EFI) hosted a two-day Regional Dialogue on Social Justice under the Global Coalition for Social Justice at Bharat Mandapam from 24-25 February 2025 in New Delhi.

    The event brought together more than 500 representatives from Coalition partners, governments, concerned Ministries of Government of India, employers’ and workers’ organizations, academia and enterprises, experts from international organizations bodies and ESIC members and officers.

    Union Minister of Labour & Employment and Youth Affairs & Sports, Dr. Mansukh Mandaviya inaugurated the two-day Regional Dialogue and launched key publications on  Responsible Business Conduct, Transforming India’s Social Protection Landscape, Compendium of Social Protection in India, and Shram Samarth, in the presence of Director General, International Labour Organization (ILO), Mr. Gilbert F. Houngbo, Union Minister of State for Labour & Employment, Ms. Shobha Karandlaje, and Ms. Sumita Dawra, Secretary, Labour & Employment.

    The event also marked the 74th foundation day of ESIC celebrating seven decades of the organisation’s service to workers and their families across the country. The highlight of the occasion was the start of the ESIC Special Services Fortnight, a 15-day initiative aimed at enhancing worker welfare. Running from February 24th to March 10th, 2025, this initiative will involve participation from ESIC Field Offices, Hospitals, and Medical Institutions in a series of activities, including seminars, health talks, awareness camps, hygiene education, health check-ups etc.

    Global experts, policymakers, and industry leaders shared their insights during technical sessions to advance social justice in the region. Experts from international organizations including International Labour Organisation (ILO), United Nations India, UNICEF, UN Women and UNESCAP shared crucial insights and global perspectives.

     

    Representatives from Australia, Japan, Namibia, Philippines, Germany, Brazil, showcased their respective experiences and learnings, while participants discussed strategies on empowering the youth to drive sustainable growth for enterprises, expanding social security to informal workers, responsible business practices in safeguarding worker well-being, promoting decent work, living wages within global value chains and human centric approach to harnessing AI for decent Work & equity. Emphasizing corporate accountability and compliance with international labour standards, the discussions reinforced the importance of multi-stakeholder partnership in driving sustainable and inclusive economic growth while upholding workers’ rights and well-being.

     

    Representatives from Ministry of Labour & Employment presented its key initiatives and achievements including NCS and e-Shram, social security coverage and OSH in changing world of work during the technical sessions.

    Ms. Sumita Dawra, Secretary (Labour & Employment) emphasized the need for collaboration among social partners- industry and workers’ organizations for fostering social justice by promoting sustainable business models, driving inclusive growth and advancing quality employment generation. She further highlighted India’s commitment to leading global efforts on social justice in collaboration with the ILO as well as OECD on the development of an International Reference Classification of Skills and Occupations under the G20 framework.

    In her concluding remarks, Secretary, Labour and Employment elaborated on the strides taken by India towards Responsible Business conduct. She appreciated the efforts of Indian businesses who showcased practices for promoting responsible business conduct by ensuring health & safety of workers, living wages, and youth skilling while expanding social protection coverage.

    Ms. Dawra also emphasized India’s demographic dividend, skilling youth for future of work, quality employment generation, and workforce well-being as top priorities.

     

    Ms. Sana De Courcelles, Director of the Global Coalition for Social Justice, praised India’s pioneering efforts and strong commitment to taking the lead in the coalition as an active partner. She commended India not only for its leadership in the coalition but also for delivering concrete outcomes, fostering tangible actions for job creation, promoting shared prosperity, and encouraging collective efforts for ongoing dialogue.

    Interactive digital kiosks of Ministry of Labour and Employment and its organizations including ESIC, Employees’ Provident Fund Organization, Director General of Employment and Director General of Labour Welfare, received good response from the participants.

    Landmark initiatives of the Ministry including e-Shram, NCS portal, labour reforms Gig & Platform Worker, ELI Schemes, EPFO and ESIC were showcased through digital flipbooks. These engaging kiosks emphasized India’s commitment to leveraging technology to make social security more accessible, transparent, and efficient.

     

    The seminar concluded as the Joint Secretary, Labour & Employment, Shri Rupesh Kumar Thakur reaffirmed the need for continued dialogue and multi-stakeholder collaboration of Coalition Partners to drive the global agenda for social justice.

    ******

    Himanshu Pathak

    (Release ID: 2106221) Visitor Counter : 53

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Europe: Isabel Schnabel: No longer convenient? Safe asset abundance and r*

    Source: European Central Bank

    Keynote speech by Isabel Schnabel, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the Bank of England’s 2025 BEAR Conference

    London, 25 February 2025

    Over the past few years, global bond investors have fundamentally reappraised the expected future course of monetary policy.

    Even as inflation has receded and policy restriction has been dialled back, current market prices suggest that maintaining price stability will require higher real interest rates in the future than before the pandemic.

    In my remarks today, I will argue that the shift in market expectations about the level of r* – the rate to which the economy is expected to converge in the long run once current shocks have run their course – is consistent with two sets of observations.

    The first is that the era during which risks to inflation have persistently been to the downside is likely to have come to an end.

    Growing geopolitical fragmentation, climate change and labour scarcity pose measurable upside risks to inflation over the medium to long term. This is especially true as the recent inflation surge may have permanently scarred consumers’ inflation expectations and may have lowered the bar for firms to pass through adverse cost-push shocks to consumer prices.

    The second observation is that we are transitioning from a global “savings glut” towards a global “bond glut”.

    Persistently large fiscal deficits and central bank balance sheet normalisation are gradually reducing the safety and liquidity premia that investors have long been willing to pay to hold scarce government bonds. The fall in the “convenience yield”, in turn, reverses a key factor that had contributed to the decline in real long-term interest rates, and hence r*, during the 2010s.

    The implications for monetary policy are threefold.

    First, a higher r* calls for careful monitoring of when monetary policy ceases to be restrictive. Second, central bank balance sheet policies may themselves affect the level of r* through the convenience yield, making them potentially less effective than previously thought. Third, because central bank reserves also offer convenience services to banks, it is optimal to provide reserves elastically on demand as quantitative tightening reduces excess liquidity.

    Upward shift in r* signals lasting change in the inflation regime

    Starting in 2021, long-term government bond yields rose measurably across advanced economies. Today, the ten-year yield of a German government bond is about two and a half percentage points higher than in late 2021 (Slide 2, left-hand side).

    What is remarkable about the rise in nominal bond yields in the euro area over this period is that it was not driven by a change in inflation compensation. Investors’ views about future inflation prospects are broadly the same today as they were three years ago (Slide 2, right-hand side).

    Rather, nominal interest rates rose because real interest rates increased. Euro area real long-term rates are now trading at a level that is substantially higher than the level prevailing during most of the post-2008 global financial crisis period (Slide 3, left-hand side).

    Part of the rise in real long-term interest rates is a mechanical response to the tightening of monetary policy.

    Long-term interest rates are an average of expected short-term interest rates over the lifetime of the bond, plus a term premium. So, when we raised our key policy rates in response to the surge in inflation, the average real rate expected to prevail over the next ten years increased.[1]

    What is more striking, however, is that investors also fundamentally revised the real short-term rate expected to prevail once inflation has sustainably returned to our target. This rate is typically taken as a proxy for the natural rate of interest, or r*.

    The real one-year rate expected in four years (1y4y), for example, is now at the highest level since the sovereign debt crisis (Slide 3, right-hand side). Even at very distant horizons, such as in nine years, the expected real short-term rate (1y9y) has increased measurably in recent years.

    To a significant extent, these developments reflect a genuine reappraisal of the real equilibrium interest rate that is consistent with our 2% inflation target. A rise in the term premium, which is the excess return investors demand for the uncertainty surrounding the future interest rate path, can explain less than half of the change in the real 1y4y rate.[2]

    These forward rates have also remained surprisingly stable since 2023, with a standard deviation of around just 15 basis points, despite the measurable decline in inflation, the protracted weakness in aggregate demand and the series of structural headwinds facing the euro area.

    We are seeing a similar upward shift in model-based estimates of r*. According to estimates by ECB economists, the natural rate of interest in the euro area has increased appreciably over the past two years, and even more so than what market-based real forward rates would suggest (Slide 4).[3]

    This result is robust across many models and even holds when accounting for the significant uncertainty surrounding these estimates. In other words, for drawing conclusions about the directional change of r* from the rise in market and model-based measures, the actual rate level is largely irrelevant.

    What matters is the direction of travel. And that is unambiguous: we are unlikely to return to the pre-pandemic macroeconomic environment in which central banks had to bring real rates into deeply negative territory to deliver on their price stability mandate. This suggests that the nature of the inflation process is likely to have changed lastingly.

    Real interest rates are only loosely tied to trend growth

    Why do markets expect such a trend reversal for real interest rates in the euro area?

    One answer is that some of the forces that weighed on inflation during the 2010s are now reversing.

    Globalisation is a case in point. The integration of China and other emerging market economies into the global production network and the broad-based decline in tariff and non-tariff barriers were important factors reducing price pressures in advanced economies over several decades.[4]

    Today, protectionist policies, the weaponisation of critical raw materials and geopolitical fragmentation are increasingly dismantling the foundations on which trade improved the welfare of consumers worldwide.

    These forces can be expected to have first-order effects on inflation.

    European gas prices, for example, are up by 65% compared with a year ago despite the significant decline over recent days. Oil prices, too, have increased since September of last year, in part reflecting the marked depreciation of the euro.

    While commodity prices are inherently volatile, and may reverse quickly, other deglobalisation factors, such as reshoring and the lengthening of supply chains, are likely to increase price pressures more lastingly.

    And yet, the persistent rise in real forward rates poses a conundrum in the euro area.

    The reason is that increases in long-term real interest rates are typically thought of as being associated with improvements on the supply side of the economy, such as productivity growth, the labour force and the capital stock.

    At present, however, these factors do not point towards an increase in r* in the euro area.

    Potential growth has generally been revised lower, not higher, as many of the factors currently holding back consumption and especially investment are likely to be structural in nature, such as a rapidly ageing population and deteriorating competitiveness.

    The weak link between the structural factors driving potential growth and r* is, however, not exceptional from a historical perspective.

    Indeed, over time there has been little evidence of a stable relationship between real interest rates and drivers of potential growth, such as demographics and productivity.[5] They have had the expected relationship in some subsamples but not in others.[6]

    Similarly, in the most popular framework for estimating r*, the seminal model by Laubach and Williams, potential growth has played an increasingly subordinated role in explaining why the natural rate of interest has remained at a depressed level in the United States following the global financial crisis (Slide 5, left-hand side).[7]

    Rather, the persistence in the decline in r* is explained to a large extent by a residual factor, which lacks economic interpretation.

    Moreover, if growth was the main driver of r*, then one would expect all real rates in the economy to adjust in a similar way. But while real rates on safe assets have declined since the early 1990s, the return on private capital has remained relatively constant.[8]

    Decline in the convenience yield is pushing r* up

    A growing body of research attempts to reconcile these puzzles. Many studies attribute a significant role to the money-like convenience services that safe and liquid assets, such as government bonds, provide to market participants.

    The yield that investors are willing to forgo in equilibrium for these services is what economists call the “convenience yield”.[9]

    This yield, in turn, critically depends on the net supply of safe assets: When these are scarce, investors are willing to pay a premium to hold them, depressing the real equilibrium rate of interest. And when they are abundant, the premium falls, putting upward pressure on r*.

    New research by economists at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System shows how incorporating the convenience yield into the Laubach and Williams framework significantly improves the explanatory power of the model.[10]

    In fact, the convenience yield can explain most of the residual factor and is estimated to have caused a large part of the secular decline in the real natural rate in the United States (Slide 5, right-hand side).

    Liquidity requirements that regulators imposed on banks in the wake of the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet policies and the integration of many large emerging market economies into the global economy have led to an unprecedented increase in the demand for safe and liquid assets, driving up their convenience yield.[11]

    These findings are in line with earlier research showing that the convenience yield has played an equally important role in depressing the real equilibrium rate in many other advanced economies, including the euro area, during the 2010s.[12]

    This process is now reversing. According to the work by the Federal Reserve economists, r* has recently increased visibly, contrary to what the model without a convenience yield would suggest.

    Asset swap spreads are a good indicator of the convenience yield. Both interest rate swaps and government bonds are essentially risk-free assets, so they should in principle yield the same return.

    For a long time, this has been the case: before the start of quantitative easing (QE) in the euro area in 2015, the spread between a ten-year German Bund and a swap of equivalent maturity was close to zero on average (Slide 6, left-hand side).

    Over time, however, with the start of QE and the parallel fiscal consolidation by governments reducing the net supply of government bonds in the market, the premium that investors were willing to pay to secure their convenience services rose measurably. At the peak, ten-year Bunds were trading nearly 80 basis points below swap rates.

    But since about mid-2022 the asset swap spread has persistently narrowed. In October of last year it turned positive for the first time in ten years, and it now stands close to the pre-QE average again.

    Other measures of the convenience yield paint a similar picture. The spread between ten-year bonds issued by the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau (KfW) and German Bunds has narrowed from about
    -80 basis points in October 2022 to just -30 basis points today (Slide 6, right-hand side).[13]

    Furthermore, in the repo market, we have observed a steady and measurable rise in overnight rates and a convergence across collateral classes (Slide 7, left-hand side).[14]

    Over the past few years, transactions secured by German government collateral, in particular, were trading at a significant premium over others. This premium has declined considerably, reflecting a reduction in collateral scarcity.

    Finally, in the United States, the spread between AAA corporate bonds and US Treasuries has declined from almost 100 basis points in 2022 to 40 basis points today (Slide 7, right-hand side). It currently stands close to its historical low.

    Global savings glut has turned into a global bond glut

    All this suggests that, today, market participants value the liquidity and safety services of government bonds less than they did in the past, as the net supply of government bonds has increased and continues to increase at a notable pace.

    In Germany and the United States, for example, the sovereign bond free float as a share of the outstanding volume has increased by more than ten percentage points over the past three years (Slide 8, left-hand side). It is projected to steadily increase further in the coming years.

    So, the global savings glut appears to have turned into a global bond glut, which reduces the marginal benefit of holding government bonds.

    There are several factors contributing to the rise in the bond free float.[15]

    First, and most importantly, net borrowing by governments remains substantial. The public deficit is estimated to have been around 5% of GDP across advanced economies last year, and it is expected to decline only marginally in the coming years (Slide 8, right-hand side).

    Second, rising geopolitical fragmentation is likely to be contributing to a drop in demand for government bonds in some parts of the world.

    In the United States, for example, there has been a marked decline in the share of foreign official holdings of US Treasury securities since the global financial crisis (Slide 9, left-hand side). It is now at its lowest level in more than 20 years.[16] The US Administration’s attempt to reduce the current account deficit is bound to further depress foreign holdings of US Treasuries.

    Third, central banks are in the process of normalising their balance sheets (Slide 9, right-hand side). Unlike when central banks announced large-scale asset purchases, the effects of quantitative tightening (QT) on yields are likely to materialise only over time, as many central banks take a gradual approach when reducing the size of their balance sheets.

    Higher r* calls for cautious approach to rate easing

    These developments have three important implications for monetary policy.

    One is that central banks are dialling back policy restriction in an environment in which structural factors are putting upward pressure on the real equilibrium rate. Recent analysis by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), for example, suggests that a fall in the convenience yield to pre-2000 average levels could raise natural rates by about 70 basis points.[17]

    While a significant part of these effects may have already materialised, other factors could push real rates up further over the medium term. The IMF projects that, in the coming years, overall global investment – public and private – will reach the highest share of GDP since the 1980s, also reflecting borrowing needs associated with the digital and green transitions as well as defence spending.

    Recent global initiatives aimed at boosting the development and use of artificial intelligence underscore these projections. Overall, these forces may well be larger than those that continue to weigh on the real equilibrium rate, such as an ageing population.

    Central banks, therefore, need to proceed cautiously. We do not fully understand how the pervasive changes to our economies are affecting the steady state, or what the path to the new steady state will look like.

    In this environment, the most appropriate way to conduct monetary policy is to look at the incoming data to assess how fast, and to what extent, changes to our key policy rates are being transmitted to the economy.

    For the euro area, this assessment suggests that, over the past year, the degree of policy restraint has declined appreciably – to a point where we can no longer say with confidence that our policy is restrictive.

    According to the most recent bank lending survey, for example, 90% of banks say that the general level of interest rates has no impact on the demand for corporate loans, with 8% saying that it contributes to boosting credit demand (Slide 10, left-hand side). This is a marked shift from a year ago when a third of all banks reported that interest rates were weighing on credit demand.

    For mortgages, the evidence is even more striking. Today almost half of the banks report that the level of interest rates supports loan demand, while a year ago more than 40% said the opposite. As a result, a net 42% of banks report an increase in the demand for mortgages, close to the historical high.

    Survey evidence is gradually showing up in actual lending data. Credit to firms expanded by 1.5% in December, the highest rate in a year and a half, and credit to households for house purchases grew by 1.1% (Slide 10, right-hand side).

    Strong bank balance sheets are contributing to the recovery and, given the lags in policy transmission, further easing is still in the pipeline.

    Lending conditions are also relatively favourable from the perspective of borrowers. The spread between the composite cost of borrowing for households and sovereign bond yields is well below the level seen over most of the 2010s and is now close to the historical average (Slide 11).[18]

    And while some maturing loans from the period of very low interest rates will still need to be refinanced at higher rates, over time this debt has declined in real terms and interest payments as a fraction of net income are buffered by rising nominal wages.

    Overall, therefore, it is becoming increasingly unlikely that current financing conditions are materially holding back consumption and investment. The fact that growth remains subdued cannot and should not be taken as evidence that policy is restrictive.

    As the ECB’s most recent corporate telephone survey suggests, the continued weakness in manufacturing is increasingly viewed by firms as structural, reflecting a combination of high energy and labour costs, an overly inhibitive and uncertain regulatory environment and increased import competition, especially from China.[19]

    Such structural headwinds reduce the economy’s sensitivity to changes in monetary policy.

    QE’s impact on r* is reducing its effectiveness

    The second implication from the impact of the convenience yield on r* is related to the use of balance sheet policies.

    If QE raises the convenience yield by reducing the net supply of government bonds, it may ultimately lower the real equilibrium interest rate. Importantly, this channel – the convenience yield channel – is distinct from the term premium channel.[20]

    So, doing QE could be like chasing a moving target.

    It reduces long-run rates by compressing the term premium.[21] But by making investors willing to pay a higher safety premium when the supply of safe assets shrinks, it may also reduce the interest rate level below which monetary policy stimulates growth and inflation.

    This can also be seen by looking at how QE changes the balance of savings and investments. Fiscal deficits absorb private savings and thereby increase r*. By doing QE, central banks absorb fiscal deficits and thereby lower r*.

    In other words, central bank balance sheet policies may be less effective than previously thought.[22] This could be an additional factor explaining why large-scale asset purchases did not succeed in bringing inflation back to 2% before the pandemic.

    Of course, the same logic holds true when central banks reduce their balance sheets.

    If QE contributed to depressing r*, QT will raise it. Any rise in real rates may then be less consequential for growth and inflation. It would then be misguided to compensate for higher long-term interest rates resulting from QT with lower short-term rates.

    This is indeed what recent research suggests: QT announcements tend to cause a significant decline in the convenience yield of safe assets.[23]

    There is one caveat, however.

    QE and QT are implemented by issuing and absorbing central bank reserves, which themselves are safe assets – in fact, reserves are the economy’s ultimate safe asset because they are free of liquidity and interest rate risk.[24]

    Banks therefore highly value the convenience services of central bank reserves. So, when evaluating the effects of central bank balance sheet policies on r*, it is necessary to consider both the asset and liability side.

    Research by economists from the Bank of England does exactly that.[25] They show that the effects of QT on the real equilibrium rate depend on the relative strength of two factors.

    One is the effect on the bond convenience yield, which causes r* to rise as the supply of government bonds increases.

    The other is the effect on the convenience yield of reserves. That effect is highly non-linear: when reserves are scarce, banks are willing to pay a high mark-up on wholesale interest rates, as was evident in the United States in 2019 when repo rates surged strongly.

    So, if QT leads to a scarcity of reserves, it may cause the overall convenience yield to rise, and hence equilibrium rates to fall.

    Convenience of reserves and the ECB’s operational framework

    At the ECB, we took this factor into account when we reviewed our operational framework last year.[26] This is the third implication for monetary policy.

    The new framework allows banks to demand as many reserves as they find optimal at a spread that is 15 basis points above the rate which the ECB pays to banks when they deposit their excess reserves with us. So, the opportunity cost of holding reserves is comparatively small, given the convenience services reserves provide to banks.

    In addition, our framework allows banks themselves to generate an increase in safe assets – by pledging non-high quality liquid assets (non-HQLA) in our lending operations. In doing so, banks on average generate € 0.92 of net HQLA for every euro that they borrow from the Eurosystem.[27]

    Our framework therefore recognises that years of crises, more stringent regulatory requirements and the advance of new technologies – some of which increase the risk of “digital” bank runs – imply that banks may wish to hold larger liquidity buffers than they historically have done.

    Supplying central bank reserves elastically will ensure that reserves will not become scarce as balance sheet normalisation proceeds. And if banks access our standard refinancing operations when they are in need of liquidity, they will also not have to adjust their lending activities in response to the decline in reserves, as is sometimes feared.[28]

    For now, the recourse to our lending operations has been limited, as there is still ample excess liquidity. But as we transition over the coming years to a world in which reserves are less abundant, banks will increasingly start borrowing reserves via our operations.

    Three ideas could be explored to make this transition as smooth as possible.

    First, regular testing requirements in the counterparty framework could help ensure operational readiness while also allowing counterparties to become more comfortable with participating in our operations. A lack of operational readiness was one of the factors contributing to the March 2023 turmoil in the United States.[29]

    Second, and related, obtaining central bank funding requires thorough collateral management, especially if the collateral framework is as broad as the Eurosystem’s. For non-HQLA collateral, in particular, the pricing and due diligence process can be operationally complex and time-consuming.

    For this reason, central banks sometimes require counterparties to pre-position collateral to ensure that funding can be readily obtained.[30] In the euro area, some banks already pre-position collateral voluntarily, in particular non-marketable collateral which cannot be used in private repo markets (Slide 12, left-hand side).

    Banks could be further encouraged to mobilise with the central bank the collateral that is eligible but currently stays idle on their balance sheets. This would increase operational readiness, mitigate financial stability risks and reduce precautionary reserve demand as banks would have higher certainty that they can access central bank liquidity at short notice.

    In the Eurosystem, given its broad collateral framework, such an approach may be more effective in helping banks adapt their liquidity management to the characteristics of a demand-driven operational framework compared with a blanket requirement to pre-position collateral.

    Finally, in some jurisdictions central bank operations are fully integrated into the platforms commonly used by banks to operate in private repo markets.

    This offers banks a number of advantages, including seamless access to transactions with the market and with the central bank, and – depending on the design of clearing arrangements and accounting rules – it could potentially allow banks to net out their positions, thereby freeing up valuable balance sheet space.

    Offering banks the possibility to access Eurosystem refinancing operations through a centrally cleared infrastructure could contribute to making our operations more economical in an environment in which dealer balance sheets are increasingly constrained (Slide 12, right-hand side).[31]

    The design of such arrangements should preserve equal treatment across our diverse range of counterparties, regardless of their size, jurisdiction and business model, maintain the possibility to mobilise a broad range of collateral and be compatible with our risk control framework.

    Further reflection is needed on these considerations, including a comprehensive assessment of the benefits and costs.

    Conclusion

    Let me conclude.

    The shocks experienced since the pandemic led to an abrupt end of the secular downward trend in real interest rates. Whether this will be merely an interlude, or the beginning of a new era, is inherently difficult to predict.

    But looking at the ongoing transformational shifts in the balance of global savings and investments, as well as at the fundamental challenges facing our societies today, higher real interest rates seem to be the most likely scenario for the future.

    This has implications for our monetary policy. Central banks will need to adjust to the new environment, both to secure price stability over the medium term and to implement monetary policy efficiently.

    Thank you.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Europe: Answer to a written question – Funding of Islamist associations by the Commission – E-002581/2024(ASW)

    Source: European Parliament

    Following allegations regarding an Erasmus+ project[1] coordinated by Islamic Relief Germany in 2023, the German National Agency in charge of vocational education and training and adult education conducted thorough checks with the relevant German authorities and concluded that there were no relevant legal findings that would have justified to terminate the project in question.

    The Commission is politically committed and legally bound to ensure that no one receives EU funding if they are involved in criminal or unethical practices, terrorism-related offences or in other activities incompatible with EU values. The award of funds is conditional to the absence of any exclusion grounds as set out in Article 138 of Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509[2].

    The recent Financial Regulation recast[3] from September 2024 introduced an explicit ground under the Early Detection and Exclusion System to protect the EU values and exclude entities from receiving EU funds if they have engaged in activities contrary to the EU founding values[4], such as incitement to discrimination, hatred or violence, where it concludes that their integrity is impacted and affects or risks affecting their performance of legal commitments undertaken[5].

    The Commission will continue rigorous monitoring procedures through checks and follow-ups on compliance with EU values. The Commission will immediately act on any evidence, by implementing appropriate measures against unreliable entities, e.g. suspension of contract or payments, contract termination, recovery or exclusion from EU financing.

    • [1] https://erasmus-plus.ec.europa.eu/projects/search/details/2023-1-DE02-KA122-ADU-000127773
    • [2] Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 September 2024 on the financial rules applicable to the general budget of the Union (recast) (OJ L, 2024/2509, 26.9.2024, ELI: http://data.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/2509/oj).
    • [3] https://op.europa.eu/en/publication-detail/-/publication/990fe2a6-8f52-11ef-a130-01aa75ed71a1/language-en
    • [4] These values are enshrined in Article 2 Treaty on the European Union and the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union.
    • [5] Article 138(1), point (c)(vi) of Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2024/2509 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 September 2024 on the financial rules applicable to the general budget of the Union (recast), OJ L, 2024/2509, 26.9.2024.
    Last updated: 25 February 2025

    MIL OSI Europe News –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine war: game theory reveals the complexities (and fragility) of a nuclear deterrent

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Renaud Foucart, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster University

    Since the cold war, deterrence has been a fundamental principle underpinning peace between global superpowers. The idea is that if two sides have nuclear weapons, the consequences of actually using them mean the button never gets pressed.

    But the strategy goes beyond the countries which own the weapons. In practice, for instance, most of Europe relies on the US for a nuclear “umbrella” of deterrence. And any country with nuclear weapons can offer guarantees of peace to others.

    This is what happened in 1994 when Russia, the UK and the US signed the Budapest memorandum in which Ukraine renounced its nuclear weapons from the Soviet era in exchange for a promise to “respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine”. This was widely seen as a good idea for Ukraine and the world, reducing the risk of a nuclear accident.

    But that memorandum has not served Ukraine well. As North Korea, India, Pakistan or Israel know, owning nuclear weapons – even against international agreements – ensures your protection. A piece of paper does not.

    And now, across the world, the ability to offer the equivalent of a Budapest memorandum to other countries has vanished. A key part of the theory behind a successful nuclear deterrent has fallen away.

    This is described in game theory – the mathematical study of strategic interactions – as the idea of a “credible commitment”. To deter a military invasion, the country offering protection must be ready to do something that hurts its own interests if it happens.

    In the case of Ukraine, this has so far involved allies sending costly military equipment, financial support and enduring the small risk of further escalation of the conflict. Being a trustworthy guarantor is a matter of international reputation: a country that delivers is considered credible. But no one will trust a guarantor that breaks its promises.




    Read more:
    Ukraine war: what is the Budapest Memorandum and why has Russia’s invasion torn it up?


    And while credible retaliation is important, so too is avoiding escalation. For it is also in everyone’s interest to reduce the probability of a catastrophic outcome.

    Over the years, the small number of countries with internationally accepted nuclear arsenals (the US, UK, France, Russia and China) have developed nuclear doctrines. These are sophisticated and often deliberately opaque rules for escalation and deescalation.

    The Nobel prize-winning economist, Thomas Schelling, argues that the uncertainty around these rules is what makes them so effective. It strengthens a system in which protection can be offered to other countries in exchange for them not developing their own nuclear capabilities.

    War games

    Game theory research has also shed light on the complexity of these rules of engagement (or non-engagement), such as the expectation (and necessity) of credible retaliation against an attack.

    Imagine, for example, that China launches a nuclear bomb that completely destroys Manchester. A rational British prime minister may prefer to end hostilities and accept the destruction of a major city rather than retaliate and risk the total destruction of human life.

    But for the deterrent to actually work, they must retaliate – or expect to see Birmingham and London disappear.

    Another difficulty comes in finding the appropriate response to varying levels of provocation. When Russian-affiliated soldiers were found guilty by Dutch courts of downing a Malaysian Airlines civilian flight with 298 people onboard, including 196 Dutch nationals, there was no talk of proportional retaliation. No one seriously contemplated shooting down a Russian plane or bombing a small Russian city.

    Nor was there any retaliation to Russian interventions in European elections, or to the sabotage of infrastructure in Baltic states, or to murders and attempted murders on European soil.

    And after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the reaction of the west was consistent with principles designed to avoid escalation. Sanctions were imposed on Russia, military aid was sent to Ukraine.

    But to abandon Ukraine now, forcing it to cede territory after three years of fighting, death, and destruction, would be a significant shift. It would represent a clear and deliberate abandonment of the international guarantees Ukraine thought it had.

    Arsenals and agreements

    Game theory also suggests that the most likely consequence of abandoning those commitments is that no country will repeat Ukraine’s mistake of giving up its nuclear capabilities. And no country will want to place their trust in potentially unreliable allies.

    Europe for instance, will aim to develop its own nuclear umbrella, potentially combining French and British capabilities. It will also hasten to integrate the next likely targets of Moscow’s military ambitions.

    This will include the parts of Ukraine not annexed by Russia, but also Georgia, already invaded by Russia in 2008, and Moldova, partly occupied by Russia.

    The second consequence is that the west will no longer have a good reason to convince countries to abandon their nuclear ambitions. That means no credible deal for North Korea, no convincing offer for Iran, and even fewer prospects to end the nuclear programmes of Pakistan, India or Israel.

    Looking at the ruins of Mariupol or Gaza City, and comparing them to Pyongyang, Tel Aviv or Tehran, many countries will conclude that a nuclear weapon is a better way to ensure security than any piece of paper.

    So if the west does abandon Ukraine, game theory suggests that the world should expect a proliferation of nuclear powers. Each will need to learn, as Russia and the US have, to live on the threshold of diastrous confrontation. But research shows that establishing a situation of reduced risk takes time.

    And that could be a time filled with increased potential for events reminiscent of the Cuban missile crisis – and a growing belief that nuclear war is inevitable.

    Renaud Foucart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine war: game theory reveals the complexities (and fragility) of a nuclear deterrent – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-game-theory-reveals-the-complexities-and-fragility-of-a-nuclear-deterrent-249995

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI USA: Barr, Managing Financial Crises

    Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

    Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today.1 I note that the objectives of the Program on Financial Stability include “supporting the world’s financial authorities in refining proven crises management tools and strategies.”2 Speaking as a representative of one of those authorities, I thought I would further the program’s goals by focusing these remarks on the principles and practice of crisis management. I am favored in that task with what one might call the luck of having been regularly confronted with crises in each of my three stints as a public servant, over a career divided between government and academia. In noting how often my arrival in government was accompanied by crisis, it might be reasonable to wonder if this is correlation or causation.
    Kidding aside, crisis management is central to all management because it demands the very best from managers when it is most needed. Anyone who spends time in government can expect that some of the most memorable and challenging experiences will be managing through tough situations, when the answers to problems are unclear but the mission of the organization comes into acute focus. The financial system is in a perpetual state balancing risk and reward. Sometimes the system falls out of balance, and vulnerabilities turn into stress or even crisis. This moment is when it is crucial to mitigate spillovers from the financial system that can hurt businesses and households and wreak havoc on the economy at large.
    Some of the most important features of modern economies were developed to prevent and mitigate financial crises. The first central banks, and eventually the Federal Reserve, were created to provide stable currencies and banking systems in support of the long-term stability of the provision of credit necessary to foster growth and rising living standards. Regulation of financial markets, regulation and supervision of banks, federal deposit insurance, and laws to protect investors, consumers, and businesses were developed over time to promote both financial stability and durable economic growth. I have spoken previously about how monetary policy and financial stability are inextricably linked and how the tools we use to conduct monetary policy and support financial stability work together.3
    In the spring of 2023, the United States faced the prospect of a spiraling stress event, when poor management and excessive risk-taking by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) led to a run that quickly spread to other banks and threatened the wider banking system. Shortcomings in supervision and gaps in the regulatory framework also contributed to SVB’s failure, and I’ve spoken about the steps the Federal Reserve has taken to improve supervision and other steps to close regulatory gaps.4 Today, I’d like to talk about how effective management of the banking stress in the spring of 2023 helped prevent that event from spiraling into a financial crisis.
    Given our student audience, I will begin with a little background on how I got into the crisis management business. After Yale Law School and two court clerkships, I worked at the State Department and then went to work for Treasury Secretary Bob Rubin in 1995. When I arrived, the Treasury Department had helped Mexico deal with a financial crisis that threatened to spread to the United States, and additional crises were to come in 1997 in Asia and in 1998 in Russia. Together, these events credibly threatened a worldwide financial crisis, which was averted by a response across the U.S. government and coordinated with governments and lending institutions around the world. I left government for academia in 2001 and then returned to Treasury in 2009 under Secretary Tim Geithner, in the midst of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). I worked to develop what became known as the Dodd-Frank Act. This law was a pivotal component of our response to the GFC by addressing gaps in financial market oversight, including through strengthened regulation and supervision of banks that increased the safeguards against the excessive risk-taking that caused the crisis. I went back to academia again in 2011 and then returned to public service as the Federal Reserve Board’s Vice Chair for Supervision in July 2022. In this position, I oversaw the response to the bank failures in March 2023 and have helped develop ways to reduce these and other risks going forward.
    The March 2023 Banking StressLet me review some facts about what happened, so you can understand the context for how we put crisis management principles and practices to work.
    SVB failed because of a textbook case of mismanagement of interest rate and liquidity risk.5 This mismanagement made uninsured depositors lose confidence in the bank’s solvency, so they ran. While this was a textbook case, the speed and severity of the run were unprecedented. The largest previous bank failure before SVB was of Washington Mutual in 2008.6 The accumulation of stresses that resulted in Washington Mutual’s failure occurred over several weeks. By contrast, SVB’s deposit outflows were much greater in both relative and absolute terms, and they occurred in less than 24 hours. On top of that, the bank had major gaps in its liquidity risk management, including its preparedness to tap contingency liquidity.7
    Because this discussion is for future first responders, I will share with you some detail about what it’s like to be on the front lines working to address a bank run. On the morning of Thursday, March 9, 2023, SVB had only a little over $5 billion in collateral pledged to the discount window, as compared to over $150 billion in uninsured deposits.8 Around midday, the firm contacted the Federal Reserve, indicating that it wanted to take out a discount window loan against this collateral, and the loan was granted. But in the next several hours, its account was drained as its deposit outflows spiraled. In the late afternoon, the firm indicated that it would need additional liquidity to meet expected outflows. The Federal Reserve worked with the firm to help it identify additional assets it could pledge to the discount window, but SVB was unsuccessful in identifying and moving sufficient collateral. Fed staff worked with the firm through the night to establish ad hoc collateral arrangements, so that the firm could tap the discount window further to meet its liquidity needs in the morning.
    While this process was happening overnight, however, the volume of online deposit withdrawal requests was growing, such that SVB management expected outflows of over $100 billion the next day, an unprecedented sum.9 Even if the bank were able to pledge all collateral available that morning to the discount window, the firm would not have been able to meet its obligations. It was not viable. The state of California closed the bank and turned it over to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) for resolution.
    SVB’s failure contributed to the strains at FDIC-supervised Signature Bank, and that bank failed in short order. As the situation intensified, the effects on businesses and households became increasingly apparent. Critically, these failures caused a reassessment of the viability of uninsured deposits as a funding source across the banking system. But strains at other banks materialized despite material differences between these firms. The rapidity of equity market price declines for several banks triggered repeated trading halts for their shares. Online deposits began to migrate out of smaller banks to larger banks, putting pressure on these smaller institutions.10 Commercial customers that had remaining deposits at SVB after it failed realized that they would not have access to their deposits and thus wouldn’t be able to make payroll or even stay in business.11
    The severity and rapidity of the spread of stress warranted a decisive response. We developed a two-part strategy that weekend.
    On March 12, the Treasury Secretary, the FDIC, and the Federal Reserve announced that the FDIC would protect uninsured deposits at SVB and Signature Bank under the systemic risk exception to least-cost resolution.12 This action essentially implied that all depositors, insured and uninsured, would have access to their deposits Monday morning. And the step helped calm uninsured depositors around the country.
    Also on March 12, the Federal Reserve established the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) under its emergency lending authority with the approval of and a backstop from the Treasury.13 The BTFP’s terms and conditions addressed the fundamental source of banking-sector jitters: questions about the ability of a range of banks to hold onto their high-quality securities that had lost value because of interest rate increases. Unrealized losses on securities portfolios were a problem for many banks, particularly when the stability of their deposit bases came into question. The BTFP provided stable funding for these high-quality assets, addressing these concerns. Specifically, the BTFP provided one-year loans to banks in sound financial condition against Treasury securities and agency securities, valued at par.
    By doing so, the BTFP addressed banks’ immediate concerns about the stability of their funding and mitigated the risk that banks would be forced to liquidate assets in a fire sale, locking in losses. BTFP advances provided confidence that banks would have sufficient funding to retain the securities on balance sheet. The program supported confidence among depositors that their banks would have ready access to sufficient cash to meet their needs, thus helping reduce concern that a self-fulfilling panic could cause additional bank runs.
    Usage of the BTFP was widespread across the banking sector, both in terms of actual usage and from a contingency standpoint. For example, at its peak, BTFP borrowing exceeded $160 billion, and collateral posted to the BTFP reached nearly $540 billion, suggesting that banks saw value in being prepared and having capacity to tap the facility if necessary. Over 1,800 institutions borrowed from the program, and the bulk of the borrowing was among institutions with less than $10 billion in assets. These smaller institutions took out 50 percent of loans by value and nearly 95 percent of loans by volume. Fed staff analysis showed the usage was more likely among institutions that had experienced deposit outflows, but usage was also widespread at firms that did not experience outflows. The broad-based actual and contingency use was consistent with Federal Reserve communications that the program was part of prudent liquidity management and that we encouraged all depository institutions to use the program. Now, about two weeks before all remaining outstanding BTFP loans are set to mature, the program is down to less than $200 million, and the program has experienced no losses.14
    Our response to the stress worked. After the announcement of the systemic risk exception and the BTFP in early March, signs of broad-based contagion subsided, and the system stabilized. While in the first two weeks of March midsize and regional banks experienced significant outflows of deposits, the acute phase of outflows had eased by the end of the month. Stability among banks that had earlier come under pressure didn’t mean that every bank found its footing, but the process of dealing with balance sheet gaps was much smoother and spillovers remained contained. By the fall of that year, deposit flows had fully stabilized and midsize and regional banks saw deposit inflows on net.
    Managing Additional Stress beyond Silicon Valley and Signature BanksWhile the announcement of the systemic risk exception and the BTFP on March 13, 2023, helped stabilize banks in the United States, we were also continuing to manage stress in the global financial system in cooperation with relevant authorities.
    Credit Suisse, a Swiss global systemically important banking organization, had been experiencing stress over several years before March 2023, with doubts about its future viability after the Archegos Capital Management and Greensill Capital scandals had tarnished its reputation and raised doubts about its business model. Stress and outflows at Credit Suisse picked up in the fall of 2022, and we spent many months working with Swiss, European, and U.K. regulators on how to manage the growing issues, including war-gaming potential resolution scenarios. Concerns about the firm’s viability accelerated on March 9, 2023, when it was forced to announce that its internal controls over financial reporting were ineffective and had been for several years. Though Credit Suisse continued to operate, it became apparent that the firm was in trouble in the week following the failures of SVB and Signature Bank.
    Just one week after SVB failed, Swiss authorities arranged for Credit Suisse to be acquired by UBS in a weekend deal that involved triggering Credit Suisse’s contingent convertible capital instruments, a severe dilution of shareholders, and the removal of senior bank management, as well as emergency liquidity support and extraordinary loss sharing from the Swiss government.15 In a sense, Credit Suisse had failed very slowly over many months—even years—and then all at once.
    The combination of these events involved coordination across U.S. and foreign jurisdictions, with careful monitoring and cooperation to identify risks to financial stability and to monitor spillovers to the U.S. and European banking systems.
    Back in the United States, we worked with our domestic counterparts as a handful of additional banks remained under pressure in the months that followed. Notably FDIC-supervised First Republic Bank was closed on May 1, 2023. First Republic had also experienced tremendous stress in March, as it suffered deposit outflows of nearly 20 percent in a single day.16 First Republic withstood these outflows in part because of significant discount window lending, as well as the extraordinary coordination among several other banks that placed significant deposits at the bank—worth $30 billion. But over time, it became clear that First Republic’s rapid and large deposit outflows and unrealized losses on loans and securities would lead to its failure as well.17
    While these were the events that got the headlines, the Federal Reserve continuously monitored other banks with potential balance sheet vulnerabilities, including those with gaps in interest rate and liquidity risk management, as well as significant exposures to office commercial real estate. We worked with these firms to ensure they addressed their vulnerabilities, while they bolstered their liquidity positions to manage potential stress. For example, overall, from March 2023 to March 2024, banks of all sizes and condition, including many not under direct stress, pledged more than $1 trillion in additional collateral to the discount window. Banks and supervisors took a wide variety of steps to shore up resilience throughout the system.
    Principles and Practices for Managing Financial-Sector StressWhen a crisis hits, the stakes are high. In the GFC, millions of Americans lost their homes, their jobs, and their dreams for their futures, when savings for education and retirement disappeared with the collapse of asset prices.18 The contraction in credit hurt small businesses and families all across the country. When banks can’t carry out their role in supplying credit to those who need it, the effects are severe and widespread.
    With those stakes in mind, here are five key principles that I learned in my experiences managing financial crises.
    First, crisis response needs to be forceful. The factor that transforms a series of unfortunate events into a self-sustaining crisis is the belief that there is no end in sight and no prospect of a sufficient response. While we could debate whether every aspect of the GFC response was necessary, one clear lesson from this experience, and from other crises I have been involved in, is how important it is that the response be forceful enough to convince market participants and the broader public that there is a capability and the will to overcome the crisis.
    A second principle is that the response should be proportionate. While a forceful response is important to bolster confidence in the prospects for gaining control over the crisis, the response also must avoid shaking confidence by suggesting that conditions are worse than they seem. In a crisis, information is spread unevenly. A response that is out of proportion—for example, by touching aspects of the financial system not considered endangered—can be misinterpreted as providing vital information about the extent of vulnerabilities.
    Another key component of crisis management is the need to engage in decisionmaking amid significant uncertainty. I explained how the response needs to be both forceful and proportionate. Finding this balance requires making tough judgments amid rapidly evolving conditions. Crisis managers need to make consequential decisions quickly with the recognition that their understanding of the facts is incomplete. Even the best of efforts to understand what is happening and what is needed will be unsatisfactory in the moment. Decisionmaking under these conditions takes some courage. It also takes humility: the ability to listen to others around you, gather different perspectives, and weigh the imperfect information in real time.
    A fourth principle is the need for clear communication—internally to the teams working on the response and externally to the public. And these communications need to be consistent with each other and with the values of the institution, even if tailored to the particular audience. Clear internal communication provides direction to the crisis response teams and facilitates coordination across relevant public-sector actors. Clear external communication, when grounded in a realistic assessment of the situation, can calm markets and reassure the public about the strategy. And clear communication is a two-way street: It involves listening to internal and external perspectives, as well as speaking in a way that can be heard.
    And that brings me to the fifth principle I would cite, which is accountability. Financial crises come about because of a lack of confidence in counterparties and among other participants in the financial system. It is crucial for crisis responders to be credible and accountable not only for assessing the root causes of the crisis, but also for addressing these causes and the aftermath. That requires staying focused on the long-term goals for reform even as crisis management remains critically important and urgent.19
    Practices for Effective Management under Periods of StressThese are important principles, and I will talk a little bit about some of the practices we used as we were guided by these principles. One crucial component of successful management of a stress event is to gather the most relevant information as quickly as possible. In a large and complex organization, it is necessary to overcome barriers to information flow across functions. In the case of the March 2023 banking stress, we drew from across the functions of the central bank to gather real-time information necessary to assess the severity of the conditions facing troubled institutions and also to identify potential levers of response.
    Supervisors generally have real-time information from a bank as it undergoes stress, but this information needs to be put into context with foundational knowledge about the firm, such as the current structure of its balance sheet and typical payment flows. While we managed an influx of reports about deposit flows at banks, it was important to be able to immediately put the size of the outflows in context and corroborate anecdotal reports against multiple sources, including from our own systems. Our next step is to assess a firm’s capacity to weather additional stress. First responders can assess if the firm has maximized the liquidity potential of its assets, including through its relationships with liquidity providers. And one needs to assess these firms’ connections to the rest of the financial sector and identify interlinkages and spillovers. Leaning on experts who engage in broader monitoring of financial markets and engage in outreach with well-established contacts can be important. A team of staff who have the capacity to think broadly across the institution and draw on the partnerships they have built with a range of business lines is necessary to support the kind of information gathering and strategizing that are crucial for consequential decisions. This is why an institutional culture that supports curiosity and openness to ideas and inquiry from the most junior to the most senior staff is foundational.
    Earlier I mentioned the principle of needing to be accountable to the public about the sources of the crisis and to address the underlying vulnerabilities that led to it. On March 13, 2023, in consultation with Chair Powell, I requested a review of the failure of SVB. Self-evaluation is the first step in any sound risk-management framework. Experienced career staff from across the Federal Reserve System who were not involved in SVB’s supervision reviewed the reasons for the bank’s failure.20 The review helped identify where the supervisory and regulatory functions of the Federal Reserve could be improved. Additional reviews by external independent parties, which we welcomed, reached similar conclusions.21 More broadly, carefully considering the underlying vulnerabilities that contributed to the stress helped the Fed develop proposals for how the supervisory and regulatory framework could be improved.22
    ConclusionNo leader looks forward to managing through a crisis, but those who hope to be good leaders need to be good crisis managers. These are skills that are most effectively developed through hard experience, but we can also learn from those who have gone through the experiences. In my case, the lessons of dealing with financial crises as a government official have revealed to me some basic principles that I believe can be useful to crisis managers. I have also learned that the best crisis management occurs beforehand, by strengthening rules and norms and other structures meant to reduce the risk of a crisis in the first place and by fostering organizational values and culture that will help manage a crisis when it comes.
    Thank you.

    1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text
    2. See Yale School of Management, Program on Financial Stability (2025), “About the Yale Program on Financial Stability,” webpage, paragraph 1. Return to text
    3. See, for example, Michael S. Barr (2023), “Monetary Policy and Financial Stability,” speech delivered at the Forecasters Club of New York, New York, October 2; and Michael S. Barr (2024), “The Intersection of Monetary Policy, Market Functioning, and Liquidity Risk Management,” speech delivered at the 40th Annual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Economic Policy Conference, Washington, February 14. Return to text
    4. See Michael S. Barr (2023), “Supervision and Regulation” testimony before the Financial Services Committee, U.S. House of Representatives, Washington, May 16. Also please see Michael S. Barr (2024), “Supervision with Speed, Force, and Agility,” speech delivered at the Annual Columbia Law School Banking Conference, New York, February 16. For more on bank supervision, see “Understanding Federal Reserve Supervision,” available on the Federal Reserve Board’s website at https://www.federalreserve.gov/supervisionreg/understanding-federal-reserve-supervision.htm. Return to text
    5. See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Office of Inspector General (2023), Material Loss Review of Silicon Valley Bank (PDF) (Washington: September 25). Immediately following SVB’s failure, Chair Powell and I agreed that I should oversee a review of the circumstances leading up to SVB’s failure. We published the results of this review on April 28, 2023; see Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Review of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank (PDF) (Washington: Board of Governors, April). Return to text
    6. See National Commission on the Causes of the Financial and Economic Crisis in the United States (2011), The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report (PDF) (Washington: Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, January); and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (2017), Crisis and Response: An FDIC History, 2008–2013 (Washington: FDIC). Return to text
    7. For instance, the bank failed its own internal liquidity stress tests and did not have workable plans to access liquidity in times of stress. The bank changed its own risk-management assumptions to reduce how these risks were measured rather than fully addressing the underlying risks. See Review of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank (note 5). Return to text
    8. See Review of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank (note 5). Return to text
    9. See Review of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank, p. 7 (note 5). Return to text
    10. See Stephan Luck, Matthew Plosser, and Josh Younger (2023), “Bank Funding during the Current Monetary Policy Tightening Cycle,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics (blog), May 11. Return to text
    11. See Berber Jin, Katherine Bindley, and Rolfe Winkler (2023), “After Silicon Valley Bank Fails, Tech Startups Race to Meet Payroll,” Wall Street Journal, March 11, https://www.wsj.com/articles/after-silicon-valley-bank-fails-tech-startups-race-to-meet-payroll-4ebd9c5c?mod=article_inline. Return to text
    12. See Department of the Treasury, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (2023), “Joint Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC,” joint press release, March 12. Return to text
    13. See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2023), “Federal Reserve Board Announces It Will Make Available Additional Funding to Eligible Depository Institutions to Help Assure Banks Have the Ability to Meet the Needs of All Their Depositors,” press release, March 12; and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2025), “Bank Term Funding Program,” webpage. Return to text
    14. See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2025), Statistical Release H.4.1, “Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks” (February 20). Return to text
    15. See Michael S. Barr (2023), “The Importance of Effective Liquidity Risk Management,” speech delivered at the ECB Forum on Banking Supervision, Frankfurt, Germany, December 1. Return to text
    16. See Michael S. Barr (2024), “On Building a Resilient Regulatory Framework,” speech delivered at Central Banking in the Post-Pandemic Financial System 28th Annual Financial Markets Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Fernandina Beach, Florida, May 20. Return to text
    17. See Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (2023), FDIC’s Supervision of First Republic Bank (PDF), (Washington: FDIC, September 8). Return to text
    18. See National Commission on the Causes of the Financial and Economic Crisis, The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report (note 6). Return to text
    19. I have discussed some thoughts on leadership attributes in previous speeches, including here: Michael S. Barr (2024), “Commencement Remarks,” delivered at the American University School of Public Affairs Graduation Ceremony, Washington, May 10. Return to text
    20. See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2023), Vice Chair Barr for Supervision’s “Review of the Federal Reserve’s Supervision and Regulation of Silicon Valley Bank – April 2023: Key Takeaways,” webpage. Return to text
    21. See Government Accountability Office (2023), “Bank Regulation: Preliminary Review of Agency Actions Related to March 2023 Bank Failures” (Washington: GAO, May 11); and Board of Governors, Office of Inspector General, Material Loss Review (note 5). Return to text
    22. See Barr, “On Building a Resilient Regulatory Framework” (note 16). Return to text

    MIL OSI USA News –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: 500 years ago, German peasants revolted – but their faith that the Protestant Reformation stood for freedom was dashed by Martin Luther and the nobility

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Michael Bruening, Professor of History, Missouri University of Science and Technology

    A sketch of groups of peasants wandering around the countryside during the German Peasants’ War. Warwick Press via Wikimedia Commons.

    Five hundred years ago, in the winter of 1524-1525, bands of peasants roamed the German countryside seeking recruits. It was the start of the German Peasants’ War, the largest uprising in Europe before the French Revolution. The peasants’ goal was to overturn serfdom and create a fairer society grounded on the Christian Bible.

    For months, they seized their landlords’ monasteries and castles. By March 1525, the peasant armies had grown to encompass tens of thousands of peasants from Alsace to Austria and from Switzerland to Saxony.

    The peasants had economic grievances, to be sure, but they also drew inspiration from the message of freedom, or “Fryheit” in German, being preached by theologian Martin Luther, who had recently launched the Protestant Reformation.

    Luther’s rejection of the peasants’ cause, however, would help lead to their crushing defeat.

    I am a scholar of the Reformation, and I included the peasants’ list of demands in my book on the debates of the era. The question of the legitimacy of the peasants’ uprising was one of the most consequential debates of the era.

    Luther’s message of freedom

    In 1517, eight years before the German Peasants’ War, Luther launched the Reformation with his 95 Theses. The theses reflected Luther’s belief that the pope and the Catholic Church were preying on the poor by selling them indulgences, taking their money for a false promise that their sins would be forgiven.

    Luther taught instead that God freely forgives the sins of believers. In one of his most famous early treatises, “The Freedom of a Christian,” written in 1520, Luther argued that because they are saved or “justified” by faith alone, Christians are entirely free from the need to do works to merit salvation. This included fasting, going on pilgrimages and buying indulgences.

    Luther’s attacks on the Catholic Church, clergy and monks quickly grew more vehement. He and his allies lambasted them for fleecing the peasants and the poor through usury, a practice of lending money at high rates of interest. Since the Bible provided no support for such practices, they argued, the poor should be free of them.

    The Twelve Articles

    In her 2025 book “Summer of Fire and Blood,” Reformation scholar Lyndal Roper argues that the religious element of the peasants’ war was central. The German peasants were among the first to try to unlock the revolutionary potential of Reformation teachings to fight social and economic injustice.

    The peasants’ efforts to do so can be seen in the most important statement of their demands: The Twelve Articles. The articles are rooted in Reformation ideas and demanded, among other things, each village’s right to elect its own pastor and to be exempt from payments and duties not found in the Bible.

    A pamphlet that peasants distributed with their Twelve Articles in 1525.
    Otto Henne am Rhyn: Cultural History of the German People, via Wikimedia Commons

    Most important was the message of freedom in the third article: “Considering that Christ has delivered and redeemed us all, without exception … it is consistent with Scripture that we should be free.” It was a cry for equality based on Christ’s redemption of all, rich and poor alike.

    The Twelve Articles were hugely successful, going through 25 printings in just two months. Since the vast majority of peasants were illiterate, this was an astounding number.

    For the lower classes, the Reformation promised to break up not just the spiritual monopoly held by the Catholic Church but the entrenched feudal system that kept them oppressed. Their desire for freedom was at the same time a denunciation of serfdom.

    The peasants were willing to take up arms to secure their freedom. In winter 1524-1525, the peasants were able to capture castles and monasteries without much bloodshed. But starting in the spring of 1525, the uprising became increasingly violent. On Easter Sunday, the peasants shockingly slaughtered two dozen knights in the city of Weinsberg, Germany. A torrent of bloodshed would follow.

    Luther’s rejection of the peasants

    Although Luther may have provided the initial inspiration for the peasants, he denounced their revolt in the harshest terms. In his treatise “Admonition to Peace,” Luther complained that the peasants had made “Christian liberty an utterly carnal thing,” which “would make all men equal … and that is impossible.”

    Responding to the revolt, Luther produced a tract entitled “Against the Murdering and Robbing Hordes of Peasants.” “Let everyone who can,” he infamously wrote, “smite, slay, and stab” the rebellious peasants. The rulers did just that.

    The nobility had been slow to react to the peasants’ initial incursions, but when they finally organized their own armies, the peasants didn’t stand a chance. On the battlefield, the nobles’ cavalry and superior artillery brutally cut down the rebels. Many who escaped the battlefield were hunted down and executed.

    The exact number of those killed are not known, but estimates place the number at around 100,000. As Roper notes, “this was slaughter on a vast scale.”

    Consequences for the Reformation

    English historian A. G. Dickens famously described the Reformation as an “urban event”, meaning that the movement’s important developments took place in cities. The German Peasants’ War shows the idea to be wrong.

    In its first years, the Reformation galvanized the hopes and dreams of Germans in both town and country. To peasants and townsfolk, it seemed to promise the chance for a complete reordering of an unjust society.

    Luther’s rejection of the peasants had important long-term consequences. His decision to side with the princes transformed the Reformation from a grassroots movement into an act of state. Everywhere the Protestant reformers went, they sought to work with the proper authorities. The close cooperation of Christian leaders and secular authorities would last for centuries.

    For their part, the European peasantry grew wary of the Christian leaders who seemed to have abandoned them. Social uprisings over the next centuries lost the religious character of the 1525 conflict and would climax in the decidedly secular French Revolution.

    Michael Bruening does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 500 years ago, German peasants revolted – but their faith that the Protestant Reformation stood for freedom was dashed by Martin Luther and the nobility – https://theconversation.com/500-years-ago-german-peasants-revolted-but-their-faith-that-the-protestant-reformation-stood-for-freedom-was-dashed-by-martin-luther-and-the-nobility-246378

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Butchers, bakers, candlestick-makers − and prostitutes: The women working behind the scenes in papal Avignon

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Joelle Rollo-Koster, Professor of Medieval History, University of Rhode Island

    The papal palace in Avignon, where the pope’s court was based for much of the 14th century. Jean-Marc Rosier from http://www.rosier.pro/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    In the medieval church, women’s roles were limited – usually some form of enclosure and celibacy, such as becoming an anchoress walled up alone for life, or a nun in a classic convent. On the other extreme were a few dramatic examples of women who made history for the church while flying in the face of gender norms: heroes such as Joan of Arc.

    The full truth, though, is more complicated. Medieval women were there all along, even in priests’ own houses. In her book “The Manly Priest,” historian Jennifer Thibodeaux reminds us that while celibacy was always the church’s ideal, it was not truly enforced until later in the Middle Ages. At least until the 11th century, some priests had wives and children who were not considered illegitimate. Even after the 14th-century Black Death, clerical households with wives and children thrived in Italy.

    As the church’s notions of illicit sex and illegitimacy hardened, however, its attitudes toward women did, too. Medieval scholars – all men – defined women’s temperament in negative terms: Women were libidinous, frivolous, unfaithful, capricious, unpredictable and easily tempted. They required constant surveillance and were kept away from clerics, at least in theory. They certainly could not hold overt positions in the pope’s court unless they were his mother or sister.

    Still, another reality emerges. The church may not have seen women as equals, but nevertheless, their work was key to the workings and finances of the papal court and its surroundings. The fact is made obvious in the archives by simply following the money. It was hardly glamorous work but necessary for the functioning of the papal court.

    A page from a 15th-century edition of ‘The Decameron’ shows a laundress working on the beach.
    Bibliothèque de l’Arsenal via Wikimedia Commons

    Vatican payroll

    The Vatican Archives’ account registers make it possible to trace who was paid and for what at the medieval papal court in Avignon, where the papacy was based for most of the 14th century. Amid the tedious task of deciphering various medieval shorthand systems, which organize expenses into categories such as “extraordinary wages,” “liturgical ornaments,” “war expenses” or “wax account,” I encountered surprises: Women appear in the lists of salaried employees at the medieval papal court.

    Furthermore, they were involved in tasks that “touched” the leader of the church. Even a pope’s clothes need making, mending and washing. Women crafted an ornate style highly appreciated by the pontiffs – glorifying them with pure white linen and gold embroidery. The Vatican Apostolic Archives’ Introitus and Exitus, medieval financial records, provide substantial evidence that women made sacerdotal ornaments and garments.

    Between 1364-1374, the registers recorded the pope’s launderesses – women otherwise lost to history. Among them were Katherine, the wife of one Guillaume Bertrand; Bertrande of St. Spirit, who washed all the papal linens upon his election; and Alasacie de la Meynia, the wife of Peter Mathei, who did the pope’s laundry for the Christmas festivities of 1373 and is mentioned again in 1375.

    These women were all wives of officers at the papal court. Records identified them by their full name, which was not the case for everyone on the pope’s payroll. This is important: The records gave them real presence, unlike most female laborers.

    A woman doing laundry appears in the Codices Palatini germanici, a German medieval manuscript.
    Heidelberg University Library

    Later records were less clear. Between the 1380s and 1410s, liturgical garments were made and washed by various women, including the unnamed wife of Peter Bertrand, a doctor of law; Agnes, wife of Master Francis Ribalta, a physician of the pope; another Alasacie, wife of carpenter John Beulayga; and the unnamed wife of the pope’s head cook, Guido de Vallenbrugenti – alias Brucho.

    Only one woman, Marie Quigi Fernandi Sanci de Turre, appears without a male relative. As time progressed, women’s names were not systematically recorded.

    Most of these later women, too, were married to curial officers who maintained rank at court by working in trade, medicine or the military. Women were never paid directly; their husbands collected their salaries. Still, this was not “unseen” labor but a salaried occupation, explicitly recorded.

    A 15th-century painting of the papal palace in Avignon, from the artist workshop of Maître de Boucicaut.
    Bibliothèque Nationale via Wikimedia Commons

    Working day – and night

    Many other women immigrated to work in Avignon. According to a partial survey of the city’s heads of households in 1371, about 15% were women. Most had traveled far and wide – from elsewhere in present-day France, as well as Germany and Italy – to reach the papal court and a chance at employment.

    Of the total female heads of household, 20% declared an occupation. The range of these women’s trades is staggering. There were fruit-sellers, tailoresses, tavern-keepers, butchers, candlemakers, carpenters and stonecutters. Women in Avignon worked as fish-sellers, goldsmiths, glove-makers, pastry-bakers, spice merchants and chicken-sellers. They were sword-makers, furriers, booksellers, bread-resellers and bath-keepers.

    An illustration from ‘Theatrum sanitatis,’ a 13th-century Latin manuscript by Giovannino de Grassi.
    De Agostini Picture Library/Getty Images

    Bathhouses, the “stews,” were often brothels. Prostitution was considered a legal occupation in Avignon and controlled by the church. Marguerite de Porcelude, known as “the Huntress,” paid an annual tax to the diocese for her lodging. Several prostitutes rented tenements from the convent of St. Catherine, and Marguerite Busaffi, daughter of a prominent banker, owned a brothel in the city.

    In 1337, the marshal of the Roman court – the highest secular judicial officer – taxed prostitutes and procurers two sols per week. Pope Innocent VI, scandalized by the practice, annulled it in 1358.

    Still, because of the general taint associated with the sex trade, the church attempted to reform prostitutes and convert them into nuns. The Avignon popes locked them up in a special convent, the Repenties, set up far from the center of town.

    A brothel scene illustrated by Maïtre François in a 15th-century edition of St. Augustine’s book ‘City of God.’
    National Library of the Netherlands via Wikimedia Commons

    Eventually, the establishment became a form of prison for “unruly” women – those who were pregnant out of wedlock. But for some hundred years, groups of ladies of the night took vows and lived as nuns there, controlling the affairs of their own convent with an iron fist.

    In the 1370s, Pope Gregory XI offered the nuns and their donors a plenary indulgence, a forgiveness of sins. They followed a rule emphasizing that regardless of their pasts, abstinence and continence could make them spiritually “chaste.”

    The ladies of the convent left detailed records of the properties they acquired. In 1384, its leaders petitioned the papal treasury, demanding arrears they were owed from a priest’s donation – and received what was due. Few medieval women had the chutzpah to petition a court for past dues, much less the pope’s. The Repenties did.

    Joelle Rollo-Koster does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Butchers, bakers, candlestick-makers − and prostitutes: The women working behind the scenes in papal Avignon – https://theconversation.com/butchers-bakers-candlestick-makers-and-prostitutes-the-women-working-behind-the-scenes-in-papal-avignon-249345

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting prioritizes ‘real’ independence from the US − but what does that mean and is it achievable?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Garret Martin, Senior Professorial Lecturer, Co-Director Transatlantic Policy Center, American University School of International Service

    Germany’s presumptive new chancellor, Friedrich Merz, faces challenges both at home and overseas following his conservative alliance’s election victory on Feb. 23, 2025.

    A strong showing from the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) – which Merz, in line with other mainstream German parties, refuses to countenance as a coalition party as part of an unofficial “firewall” against extremism – will make forming a functioning government tricky.

    But in the moments after the election results, it was the future of the European Union and its relationship with America that was his immediate focus: “My absolute priority will be to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA.”

    To understand why that is such a concern for Germany now and what “real independence” from Washington means, The Conversation U.S. turned to Garret Martin, an expert on U.S.-Europe relations at American University, for answers.

    What prompted Merz’s ‘real independence’ line?

    Presumably it was a response to a series of recent announcements and actions by the Trump administration that have shocked the German political establishment. This includes the sudden revelation that the U.S. would negotiate directly with Russia to end the war in Ukraine, but seemingly without the Europeans or Ukrainians involved. That development went down like a lead balloon in Berlin, especially considering Germany’s significant financial support of Kyiv since 2022.

    Moreover, the German establishment has also frowned at a series of recent declarations by members of the Trump administration. Vice President JD Vance’s speech at the Munich Security Conference, in which he harshly criticized Europe for allegedly undermining freedom of expression, provoked clear pushback from German leaders. Trump, for his part, hardly endeared himself to his German allies when he denounced Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as a “dictator.”

    And, of course, Elon Musk’s interference in the German elections – as well as his open support for the far-right Alternative for Germany – provoked a fierce response from Merz. The then-candidate promised that Musk would need to be prepared for legal consequences for his meddling.

    Elon Musk addresses, via videolink, the election campaign launch rally of the far-right Alternative for Germany on Jan. 25, 2025.
    Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    How would this ‘real independence’ be achieved?

    Defining what “real independence” means and being able to implement such a drastic change in transatlantic relations will be a tall order. If by “real independence” Merz means that Germany would no longer rely on the U.S. for its security, then that would require several major steps.

    Merz would first need to convince his likely coalition partners, the Social Democrats, that this is the right goal. After all, German governments are bound by very detailed coalition agreements. Second, Merz would need to significantly increase German defense spending. As it stands, Germany’s annual defense budget is slightly over US$90 billion, or 2% of its GDP. But a recent study by the economic think tank Bruegel suggests Berlin would need to increase its budget by $145 billion annually to defend Europe without the assistance of the U.S.

    But to achieve this, Merz will likely need to increase defense spending by such a level that it will contravene the country’s “debt brake.” This 2009 constitutional rule essentially caps the annual deficit that the government can take on. But overturning this mechanism would require a two-thirds majority in both chambers of the German Parliament. Merz’s Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union party won 28.6% of the vote – and even with the support of the country’s main center-left party, the Social Democrats, Merz will fall short of the parliamentary votes needed.

    Finally, “real independence” would also require convincing other European Union partners to join him down that path. Assuming that the Trump administration continues its current trajectory and further undermines NATO, the EU would have to step in to become a more prominent security actor for the continent. It might also require, as Merz hinted, that the United Kingdom and France be ready to share their nuclear weapons, since the U.S. may not be trusted anymore to defend NATO countries.

    All of these steps would cover “real independence” only in the security sphere and not touch other crucial policy areas, such as trade and energy. And that would be an equally tall order given the level of economic ties binding Germany to the U.S., as well as the looming threat of tariffs.

    What does this mean for German-US relations?

    Merz’s “real independence” statement would have been noteworthy coming from any German chancellor. But it is even more striking when one considers the fact that Merz is a committed transatlanticist who deeply admires the U.S. and counts Ronald Reagan as one of his role models.

    At 69, Merz came of age during the final years of the Cold War, when the U.S. played a key role in enabling German reunification. He worked for years for Atlantik-Brücke, a lobbying group pushing for closer transatlantic ties. And he has, by his own account, traveled more than 100 times to the U.S.

    Independence will not likely mean a complete divorce between the U.S. and Germany – the ties binding the two countries, whether economic, cultural or political, run too deep. However, we can expect that Berlin will not hesitate to take a more combative approach toward Washington when necessary, so to protect German and European interests. As Merz pointed out, it is clear that the Trump administration does “not care much about the fate of Europe.”

    What does this signal for Merz’s view of Germany’s position in the EU?

    Merz’s win will certainly lead to important shifts in Germany’s position in the EU, and could be a major boost for a union in need of leadership. His predecessor, Olaf Scholz, was hampered by a weak economy, divisions within his coalition and indecisive leadership in Europe. Moreover, poor relations with French President Emmanuel Macron also stalled the Franco-German partnership, normally a key engine of leadership in the EU.

    Merz certainly plans to take a very distinct approach toward the EU than his predecessor. His calls for “real independence” will certainly be very welcome in France, which has long called for Europe to be more responsible for its own security. As such, it opens up the possibility of far closer ties between Paris and Berlin than we saw in recent years. Moreover, Merz, with his more hawkish position toward Russia, could be counted on to provide greater support for Ukraine.

    Garret Martin receives funding from the European Union for the Transatlantic Policy Center, which he co-directs.

    – ref. Germany’s chancellor-in-waiting prioritizes ‘real’ independence from the US − but what does that mean and is it achievable? – https://theconversation.com/germanys-chancellor-in-waiting-prioritizes-real-independence-from-the-us-but-what-does-that-mean-and-is-it-achievable-250708

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI: New KnowBe4 Report Reveals the Hidden Power of Information Sharing in Shaping an Organization’s Security Culture

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    TAMPA BAY, FL, Feb. 25, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — KnowBe4, the world-renowned cybersecurity platform that comprehensively addresses human risk management, today announced the release of research report “Cybersecurity Information Sharing as an Element of Sustainable Security Culture”, authored by by Dr. Marin J. Kraemer, Security Awareness Advocate at KnowBe4, and Dr. William Seymour, Lecturer in Cybersecurity at King’s College London. The report examines how people consume and share cybersecurity information, revealing the role that workplace training plays in fostering information sharing among colleagues.

    Many employees already engage with cyber-related information in their personal lives, and when they proactively share it, it reflects a mature security mindset. A well-established security culture encourages good habits, mutual support, and a clear awareness of risks. By examining how cybersecurity news spreads, organizations can gain valuable insights to strengthen defenses and minimize human risk.

    The report found that, on average, 57% of people surveyed received cybersecurity-related training, with 73% in the UK, 60% in the U.S., 55% in Germany and only 38% in France. Workplace training influenced information sharing, as 24% of those trained went on to share insights with colleagues and were more likely to remember phishing-related content.

    Other key findings:

    • 95% of people have read or watched cybersecurity content at least once.
    • 77% have had cybersecurity information shared with them and 25% have actively shared cybersecurity information with others.
    • 22% of employees find cybersecurity information from websites and 21% find it from employers.
    • Generally, employers were an important source of cybersecurity information across all age groups, whereas social media was an important channel for the 18-29 year age group.

    “Employees care about cybersecurity—and organizations should, too,” said Kraemer. “Successful security awareness programs recognize that engaged employees are more likely to share important insights with their colleagues, strengthening the workplace security culture. By delivering high-quality, relevant content and making it easy to share, organizations can empower their workforce to make informed decisions, reduce risks, and create a security-first mindset that extends beyond the office.”

    Ultimately, ‘the more you care, the more you (want to) share’. When employees are properly engaged with cyber risks, the more likely they are to openly communicate with others about this topic and create a stronger security culture in the workplace. Understanding how employees consume and share cybersecurity news is essential for building a stronger security culture.

    The full report, “Cybersecurity Information Sharing as an Element of Sustainable Security Culture”, is available to download here.

    About KnowBe4

    KnowBe4 empowers workforces to make smarter security decisions every day. Trusted by over 70,000 organizations worldwide, KnowBe4 helps to strengthen security culture and manage human risk. KnowBe4 offers a comprehensive AI-driven ‘best-of-suite’ platform for Human Risk Management, creating an adaptive defense layer that fortifies user behavior against the latest cybersecurity threats. The HRM+ platform includes modules for awareness & compliance training, cloud email security, real-time coaching, crowdsourced anti-phishing, AI Defense Agents, and more. As the only global security platform of its kind, KnowBe4 utilizes personalized and relevant cybersecurity protection content, tools and techniques to mobilize workforces to transform from the largest attack surface to an organization’s biggest asset.

    The MIL Network –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-Evening Report: Barred European Union politician brands Israel as ‘a rogue state’

    Israel has now banned another European Union parliamentarian from entering the country, reports Al Jazeera.

    The government gave no reasons why Lynn Boylan, who chairs the European Parliament EU-Palestine delegation, was denied entry.

    “This utter contempt from Israel is the result of the international community failing to hold them to account,” Boylan, an Irish MP in Brussels, said in a statement.

    “Israel is a rogue state, and this disgraceful move shows the level of utter disregard that they have for international law.

    “Europe must now hold Israel to account.”

    Boylan said she had planned to meet with Palestinian Authority officials, representatives of civil society organisations, and people living under Israeli occupation.

    She is a member of the Sinn Fein party in Ireland, which has been among the most vocal countries in criticising the Israeli government over its treatment of Palestinians.

    France’s Hassan also refused
    Earlier, EU lawmaker Rima Hassan was also refused entry at Ben-Gurion airport and ordered to return to Europe.

    “Hassan, who is expected to land from Brussels in the coming hour, consistently works to promote boycotts against Israel in addition to numerous public statements both on social media and in media interviews,” said Israeli Interior Minister Moshe Arbel’s office.

    Hassan is a French national of Palestinian origin known for her support of the Palestinian cause and for speaking out against Israel’s war on Gaza.

    Kaja Kallas, the EU foreign policy chief, outlined a range of worries about the situation in war-battered Gaza and the occupied West Bank.

    “We have constantly called on all parties, including Israel, to respect international humanitarian law,” she said, adding that Europe “cannot hide our concern when it comes to the West Bank”.

    ICC raps Merz over warrants
    Meanwhile, the International Criminal Court (ICC) has declared that states cannot unilaterally “determine soundness” of its rulings

    Earlier, it was reported that Germany’s election winner Friedrich Merz was saying he planned to invite Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to visit the country — despite an ICC war crimes warrant issued for his arrest, which Merz claimed did not apply.

    The ICC responded by saying states had a legal obligation to enforce its decisions, and any concerns they may have should be addressed with the court in a timely and efficient manner.

    “It is not for states to unilaterally determine the soundness of the court’s legal decisions,” said the ICC in a statement.

    Israel rejects the jurisdiction of the court and denies war crimes were committed during its devastating war on Gaza.

    Germans feel a special responsibility towards Israel because of the legacy of the Holocaust, and Merz has made clear he is a strong ally. But Germany also has a strong tradition of support for international justice for war crimes.

    Amnesty slams ‘shameful silence’
    Amnesty International and 162 other civil society organisations and trade unions have signed a joint letter calling on the EU to ban trade and business with Israel’s settlements in occupied Palestinian territory.

    “Despite EU consensus about the settlements’ illegality and their link to serious abuses, the EU continues to trade and allow business with them,” the letter said.

    This contributes to “the serious and systemic human rights and other international law abuses underpinning the settlement enterprise”, it added.

    The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in July issued a landmark advisory opinion affirming that states must not recognise, aid or assist the unlawful situation arising from Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory.

    The EU’s shameful silence on threats to the ICC gives the firm impression that the EU has prioritized relations with a government implicated in the commission of genocide and war crimes, over support to an institution which is pursuing individual accountability for these crimes.

    — Amnesty EU (@AmnestyEU) February 24, 2025

    Article by AsiaPacificReport.nz

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Germany and WFP join forces to reach crisis-affected children in northern Togo with nutritious school meals

    Source: World Food Programme

    LOME – TOGO: The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has welcomed a contribution of EUR 11 million from the Government of Germany, facilitated by the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).

    The funding channelled through the German Development Bank (KfW), will enable WFP to provide daily nutritious meals to 28,000 pre-school and primary school children in the Kara and Savanes regions of northern Togo.

    With Germany’s funding, WFP will rehabilitate school kitchens, provide fuel-efficient stoves, establish school gardens and grain milling units, and support nutrition education to children, parents and teachers, ensuring a holistic approach to food security, health, and education. 

    ““Through this collaboration with Germany, we are extending our activities to some of Togo’s most vulnerable populations, building sustainable systems that connects local production with school feeding, creating a powerful cycle of development.” said Dr Moïse BALLO, WFP’s Country Director and Representative in Togo. “Our school feeding programme not only improves children’s education and nutrition but also empowers local communities.”

    WFP will target 110 schools within communities hosting refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), from the spillover of the Sahel crisis. Food commodities for school meals will be sourced locally from smallholder farmers and women’s cooperatives, thereby stimulating the local economy. 

    “We are pleased to be able to work with WFP to make an important contribution to food security for children in a region that is affected by spillover of the Sahel crisis,” said Dr. Claudius FISCHBACH, German Ambassador to Togo. “Germany is supporting Togo and the other states in the Gulf of Guinea through various measures in the areas of stability, social cohesion and development. It is particularly important to us that the chosen approaches can be continued in a sustainable way.” 

    In collaboration with the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the Ministry of Agriculture and local organizations, WFP will provide agricultural inputs, equipment and technical training to 8,250 smallholder farmers and 1,000 members of food transformation cooperatives most of whom are women.

    WFP’s Home-Grown School Feeding programme in Togo targets 45,500 children in 160 primary schools in the northern regions of the country.

    #                 #                   #

    About WFP

    WFP is the world’s largest humanitarian organization, saving lives in emergencies and using food assistance to build a pathway to peace, stability and prosperity for people recovering from conflict, disasters, and the impact of climate change. 

    MIL OSI United Nations News –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Environment Secretary Steve Reed – NFU Conference speech

    Source: United Kingdom – Government Statements

    Speech

    Environment Secretary Steve Reed – NFU Conference speech

    Speech by Environment Secretary Steve Reed at the NFU Conference

    Thank you very much Tom for inviting me to speak today.  

    I’ve been to the NFU Conference before of course – but this is my first time attending as the Secretary of State for Defra. I want to personally thank Tom for our work together since I took up this role last July.  

    You were the first visitor to my office after the election and you’ve been back more since then than anyone else since. That conversation between us is invaluable as we navigate the farming transition together. 

    And I’m grateful for your views Tom – even where we’ve disagreed.  

    You set that out in your speech and I was listening to it, plain speaking as you always do. And I know it’s reflected here today, and the protests in Westminster and around the country. But even if the conversation gets difficult – I will always show up to have it. Because I respect this union and I respect British farming.

    Now, I can’t give the answer I know many of you want on inheritance tax. But I want you to know that I understand the strength of feeling in the room and in the sector, we can see and example of that right in front of me right now. And I am sorry it’s a decision that we’ve had to take.   

    Like I said I am always going to turn up to have the conversation with you, there’s an opportunity to ask questions afterwards and it might be better to ask them in that way because I have an awful lot that I think will be of interest to other people who are here in the room today that might want to hear what I have to say about that.

    Now I’ve heard many farmers describing that decision as ‘the final straw’ – and the truth is those straws have been piling up for many years. Tom you were outlining many of them in your speech.

    This sector is facing high input costs, tight margins, and unfairness in the supply chain. You’ve struggled to get enough workers to pick your fruit and veg. Frankly, you’ve been sold out in past trade deals. Farmland is increasingly at risk from severe flooding and drought.  

    And this all comes as we face the biggest transition for farming in generations, moving away from the Basic Payment Scheme to more sustainable methods of farming. 

    The underlying problem in this sector is that farmers do not make enough money for the hard work and commitment that they put in.   

    I will consider my time as Secretary of State a failure if I do not improve profitability for farmers up and down this country. 

    Today I can announce I will set up a new farming profitability unit within the department to drive that goal. I want to outline what the Government is doing to tackle the deep-rooted problems holding the sector back. Because time and again, I hear farmers say that they do not make a fair profit for the food they produce. And it is only by overcoming these long-standing challenges that we can create the conditions for your farming businesses to succeed. Achieving this starts by treating farms as the businesses they are. That’s something, in my view, the previous government forgot.  

    Farmers have repeatedly told me they want to stand on their own two feet. They are proud people and rightly so. But it is paternalistic and patronising for government to treat farmers as if they are not operating in a marketplace in which they need to turn a decent profit. 

    I worked in business for 16 years, with responsibility every year for driving up profit and driving down cost. British farming has some of the hardest working, most creative people anywhere in the British workforce. But a sector that isn’t profitable doesn’t have a future. I know that from my own long experience in business.   

    My focus is on ensuring farming becomes more profitable – because that is the best way to make your businesses viable for the future. And that’s how we ensure the long-term food security this country needs.   

    This approach will underpin our 25 Year Farming Roadmap and our Food Strategy, where we will work in partnership with farmers to make farming and food production sustainable and profitable. We will work with farmers and stakeholders to build the roadmap together, covering every part of the sector, and the first workshops will start next week. 

    The roadmap stands on three principles. 

    First, a sector that has food production at its core. The role of farming will always be to produce the food that feeds our nation. The instability we see across the world shows us why it’s so important we help farmers to get this right.  

    Second, a sector where farm businesses are more resilient in withstanding the shocks that periodically disrupt farming – severe flooding, drought, animal disease. We will help farmers who want to diversify their income to put more money into their business so they can survive these more difficult times when they come.   

    Third, a sector that recognises restoring nature is not in competition with sustainable food production, but is essential to it. 

    It is only by pursuing all three of these principles – and recognising that farms are businesses that need to be profitable, that we can guarantee national food security and a thriving food production and farming sector.  

    Our New Deal for Farmers is supporting farmers to produce food sustainably and profitably.  

    It won’t all happen overnight, but we are already making changes. 

    Tom has repeatedly told me farmers need certainty about seasonal workers. I’ve listened Tom, and I’m pleased to announce that we’re extending the Seasonal Worker visas for five years. That on it’s own is not the long-term solution. We will reduce the number of seasonal workers coming to the UK in the future.  

    But I recognise your business needs stability over the coming years as we work at pace to embrace innovation, develop the agri-tech and invest in farming practices so you can reduce your reliance on seasonal workers as quickly as possible. 

    We are making the Supply Chain fairer, with new regulations for the pig sector coming in by the end of next month in March to make sure contracts clearly set out expectations and only allow changes if they’ve agreed by all parties. We are engaging with industry on similar proposals for eggs and fresh produce. 

    For the first time ever, we are measuring where the public sector buys food from so we can use the Government’s own purchasing power to back British produce wherever we can. I have worked with my colleague Pat McFadden in the Cabinet Office to create new requirements for government catering contracts to favour high-quality, high-welfare products that British producers are well placed to meet.  

    This means British farmers and producers can compete for a fairer share of the £5 billion pounds a year the public sector spends on food. That’s money straight into farmers’ bank accounts to boost turnover and boost profits.  

    Ours is an outward-facing trading nation. But I want to be clear, we will never lower our food standards in trade agreements. We will promote robust standards nationally and internationally and will always consider whether overseas produce has an unfair advantage. British farming deserves a level playing field where you can compete and win and that is what you’ll get. We will use the full range of powers at our disposal to protect our most sensitive sectors. 

    Innovation and technology will help farmers produce more food more sustainably and more profitably. I’m delighted to announce the legislation to implement the Precision Breeding Act for plants in England has been laid in Parliament today. This offers huge potential to transform the plant breeding sector in England by enabling innovative products to be commercialised in years instead of in decades, and we are reinstating the Precision Breeding Industry Working Group so the whole food supply chain can work together to bring new food and feed products to market faster. 

    We are investing in the UK Agri-Technology sector with a further £110 million pounds in farming grants being announced today. In Spring we will launch new competitions under our Farming Innovation Programme for groundbreaking research that will help the sector transition towards net zero, and unlock opportunities from the Precision Breeding Act.  

    This is not just for the biggest farms. We will help farms of any size access technology that makes a real difference to the bottom-line over the years ahead. Like the chemical-free cleaning for integrated milking equipment by Oxi-Tech – funded through FIP, which boosts profits by lowering energy costs and chemical use. Our new ADOPT programme will fund farmer-led trials that bridge the gap between these new technologies and their use in the real world,  showing farmers that their investments in technology will deliver financial returns and boost profits. And once technologies and equipment hit the market, we are making them available through the Farming Equipment and Technology Fund. Products like the electric weeder developed by Rootwave to reduce chemical use. We will launch another opportunity this Spring to bring more products to the farmgate. 

    Farms must be resilient to future challenges if they are to remain financially viable and strengthen food security. That includes severe flooding and droughts through to animal disease, and geopolitical tensions that increase demands on our land for energy generation. 

    I know new tech doesn’t bring the same benefits for every type of farm. We are investing to help farm businesses build resilience against animal diseases that can devastate livelihoods and threaten our entire economy. Like the Bluetongue Virus, Avian Flu, or the recent case of Foot and Mouth that we saw in Germany. 

    That’s why we’re investing £208 million pounds to set up a new National Biosecurity Centre, modernising the Animal and Plant Health Agency facilities at Weybridge, to protect farmers, food producers and exporters from disease outbreaks that can wipe out businesses in a moment. 

    We are helping keepers of cattle, sheep and pigs in England improve the health, welfare and productivity of their animals by expanding the fully funded farm visits offer. 

    Tom had raised with me, and he just did in his speech, the risk from illegal meat imports. More than 92,000 thousand kilograms of illegal meat products were seized at ports across the UK over the last year. They carry huge risk of diseases such as African Swine Fever and Foot and Mouth getting into the country. We can’t tolerate this.   

    I am working with the Home Office and Border Force on plans to seize the cars, vans, trucks and coaches used by criminal gangs to smuggle illegal meat into our country and crush them so they can’t be used again.   

    I’ve listened to your concerns about other forms of crime as well. Crime damages farm profitability as you are forced to wait for farm or construction machinery to be replaced, or clear rubbish that has been dumped in your gateways or on your land. The National Rural Crime Unit is already supporting forces to tackle rural crime around the country.   

    To strengthen our approach and protect your profits, the Home Secretary Yvette Cooper will lay the legislation this year to better protect agricultural equipment like all-terrain vehicles, by requiring immobilisers and forensic marking as standard.  

    At the Oxford Farming Conference earlier this year, I announced new ways to help farmers remain profitable and viable, even in a challenging harvest. We will consult on national planning reforms this Spring to make it quicker for farmers to build new buildings, barns and other infrastructure to boost food production.  And ensure permitted development rights work for farms to convert larger barns into a farm shop, holiday let, or a sports facility if that suits their business planning. We will get red tape out of the way so you can invest to become more profitable.   

    I’m working with Ed Miliband and the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero so more farm businesses can connect their own electricity generation to the grid much faster, so you can sell surplus energy and diversify your income.   

    The third element of our vision is nature. Restoring nature is vital to food production, not in competition with it. It is healthy soils, abundant pollinators and clean water that are the foundations farm businesses that they rely on to produce high crop yields and turn over a profit. Without nature thriving, there can be no long-term food security. 

    I want to thank everyone – upland, tenant, grassland farmers and others – everyone who is involved in our farming schemes. Almost 50 thousand farm businesses are now in schemes and around half of farmed land in England is being managed to enhance nature while producing food. 

    I recognise the frustration when we had to pause the Capital Grants offer last year without proper warning because of unprecedented demand. I promised to update you as soon as I could. And I can confirm today that every application submitted for capital grants before the pause in November will be taken forward, and following this, we will reopen the ELM capital grants offer this summer. 

    I’m also pleased to announce that we’re investing £30 million pounds to increase payment rates in Higher Level Stewardship with immediate effect to bring them more closely in line with our other farming schemes. Something the NFU and others have long called for. You just called for it again, Tom. These farmers are the pioneers of nature-friendly farming, often based in upland areas. They deliver high-quality environmental outcomes; now, finally, they will get a fair price for their work.  

    There’s a lot to be done to make British farming profitable and viable for the long term. I know we can only get there if we build the future together.   

    We will work with Tom, the NFU and farmers around the country to support farmers to keep producing the food we love to eat. This requires a new approach that recognises farms are businesses, and businesses need to turn a fair profit.  

    I’ll play my part in creating the conditions for that to happen. I know you’ll play your part in building resilient businesses that will innovate and succeed. Together, we will overcome the challenges this sector faces and give British farming the bright future this country knows you deserve.

    Updates to this page

    Published 25 February 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

    February 26, 2025
  • MIL-OSI China: Chinese filmmaker Huo Meng makes history with Berlinale win

    Source: China State Council Information Office 3

    Director Huo Meng on Saturday became the first Chinese mainland filmmaker to win the Silver Bear for best director at the 75th Berlin International Film Festival, receiving the honor for his film “Living the Land.”

    Chinese director Huo Meng poses with his Silver Bear award for best director at the 75th Berlin International Film Festival in Berlin, Germany, Feb. 22, 2025. [Photo courtesy of Shanghai Film Group]

    The film, produced by Shanghai Film Group and written and directed by Huo, captures daily life in 1990s north China through documentary-like cinematography and the authentic use of Henan province’s local dialect. The film stars Wang Shang, Zhang Chuwen and Zhang Yanrong, with renowned Chinese actor Yao Chen as executive producer.

    The story follows 10-year-old Xu Chuang, who lives with his grandmother and the Li family after his parents move to the city. Through scenes of spring plowing, autumn harvests, weddings and funerals, the film captures rural life and human relationships. Shot in a warm realist style, it depicts Xu’s family — hardworking, resilient and hopeful — as they strive for a better life, witnessing quiet yet profound changes in their community as they navigate tradition and modernity.

    In his acceptance speech, Huo emphasized filmmaking’s collaborative nature. “I am grateful to the actors for portraying a group of hardworking, kind-hearted and resilient ordinary people. The most captivating aspect of film is its ability to connect the emotions of people from different places,” he said.

    A still from “Living the Land.” [Photo courtesy of Shanghai Film Group]

    The film has received critical acclaim since its Feb. 14 premiere at the festival. The Hollywood Reporter critic Jordan Mintzer stated that it “immerses the viewer in a remote Chinese agricultural community with all the precision and beauty of an accomplished artist,” and praised Huo as “a master at embedding the drama within a broader fresco of social and economic transformation.” In a review for Variety, Guy Lodge wrote, “Though it’s gently paced and narratively diffuse, ‘Living the Land’ is never dull, thanks to a wealth of incident and the complexity of relationships in Huo’s extended family portrait.”

    “I spent my childhood in a rural village,” the director said at the premiere. “For thousands of years, China’s countryside has shaped deeply moving qualities in the Chinese people, such as diligence, kindness and resilience.”

    The film, shot over a year, follows its characters through all four seasons. “It creates a realm where we can experience the way of life and the intense emotional bonds, while also witnessing the possibility of change,” Huo shared.

    A poster for “Living the Land.” [Image courtesy of Shanghai Film Group]

    “Living the Land” is Huo’s third feature film, and he is the first Chinese filmmaker born in the 1980s to win a Silver Bear. An associate professor at the Shanghai Film Academy of Shanghai University, Huo previously won directorial awards for “Crossing the Border-Zhaoguan.” The Shanghai International Film Festival selected him last year for its SIFF YOUNG program, which supports emerging filmmakers with domestic and international film industry resources.

    The 75th Berlin International Film Festival, also known as the “Berlinale,” ran from Feb. 13 to 23. Norwegian director Dag Johan Haugerud won the Golden Bear for best film with “Dreams,” while Brazilian filmmaker Gabriel Mascaro’s “The Blue Trail” received the grand jury prize. U.S. director Todd Haynes led the main competition jury. Nineteen films competed in the main competition, including two Chinese entries — the other being “Girls on Wire” by director Vivian Qu.

    MIL OSI China News –

    February 25, 2025
  • MIL-OSI: Dassault Systèmes Announces Centric Software’s Acquisition of AI-Powered PXM Solution, Contentserv

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    Press Release
    VELIZY-VILLACOUBLAY, France — February 25, 2025

    Dassault Systèmes Announces Centric Software’s Acquisition of AI-Powered PXM Solution, Contentserv

    • Contentserv provides the all-in-one cloud-based platform for PIM, DAM, Content Syndication and Digital Shelf Analytics (DSA)
    • Platform enables FMCG companies to craft and optimize product content to reduce time to market, increase product sell-through and curate personalized consumer experiences

    Dassault Systèmes (Euronext Paris: FR0014003TT8, DSY.PA) today announced that its subsidiary Centric Software, the Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) market leader, has signed an agreement to acquire Contentserv, a leading provider of product information management (PIM) and product experience management (PXM) solutions for an enterprise value
    of €220 million. Centric Software provides the most innovative enterprise solutions to plan, design, develop, source, price and sell products such as apparel, fashion, home, footwear, sporting goods, consumer electronics, cosmetics, food & beverage and luxury to achieve strategic and operational digital transformation goals.

    Founded in Germany in 2000, Contentserv enables fast-moving consumer goods and other companies to create and manage product content intuitively and effectively by means of AI to optimize consumer experiences across all digital sales channels. With Contentserv solutions, retailers, brands and manufacturers are able to execute strategies such as more or simply better product offers, regions and sales channels for increased product sell-through.

    With over 1600 customers in 90 countries, Contentserv users have reported ROI such as a 30% reduction in time to market, 70% faster catalog creation, 75% more accurate product information and increased sales channel coverage in more languages.

    Fashion and consumer goods brands and retailers continue to pivot around changing consumer trends and constantly evolving stock keeping units (SKUs) while also diversifying sales channels including own-stores, own e-commerce sites, marketplaces and social media. Harnessing and leveraging product information from inception through to commercialization are critical steps that not only reduce time to market, improve market success and also ensure accuracy for compliance labeling. Consumer loyalty is also increased via contextualized and personalized brand experiences.

    “At Contentserv, we don’t just manage product data – we transform it into seamless, high-converting product experiences that drive revenue,” explained Michael Kugler, CEO of Contentserv. “This data flows in from multiple sources and formats and consumers expect accurate, rich and engaging product experiences, anytime, anywhere and across every conceivable channel and touchpoint.   “Manufacturers and retailers strive to continuously refine and optimize product presentation based on insights from consumers, competitors and marketplaces. Contentserv meets these challenges with our AI-powered Product Experience Cloud (PXC), transforming product data into real revenue.”

    “We are thrilled to welcome Contentserv to the Centric Software family. Both companies share a customer-focused, innovation culture,” said Chris Groves, CEO of Centric Software. “By integrating Contentserv into the Centric family of solutions – from PLM to planning to competitive market intelligence, pricing & inventory optimization and visual boards – brands, retailers and manufacturers can seamlessly turn product content into enriched, market-ready experiences that drive engagement and conversion. In today’s competitive market, time-to-market and product experience go hand-in-hand. Together with Contentserv, our joint innovations will ensure that the moment a product is developed, it’s enriched, optimized and ready to convert.”

    The transaction is due to close in the coming weeks subject to regulatory approval and other customary conditions for a transaction of this nature.

    ###

    FOR MORE INFORMATION

    Dassault Systèmes’ 3DEXPERIENCE platform, 3D design software, 3D Digital Mock Up and Product Lifecycle Management (PLM) solutions: http://www.3ds.com

    ABOUT DASSAULT SYSTÈMES

    Dassault Systèmes is a catalyst for human progress.  Since 1981, the company has pioneered virtual worlds to improve real life for consumers, patients and citizens.  With Dassault Systèmes’ 3DEXPERIENCE platform, 350,000 customers of all sizes, in all industries, can collaborate, imagine and create sustainable innovations that drive meaningful impact.  For more information, visit:  www.3ds.com

    Dassault Systèmes Press Contacts
    Corporate / France        Arnaud MALHERBE        arnaud.malherbe@3ds.com        +33 (0)1 61 62 87 73
    North America        Natasha LEVANTI        natasha.levanti@3ds.com        +1 (508) 449 8097
    EMEA        Virginie BLINDENBERG        virginie.blindenberg@3ds.com        +33 (0) 1 61 62 84 21
    China        Grace MU        grace.mu@3ds.com        +86 10 6536 2288
    Japan        Reina YAMAGUCHI        reina.yamaguchi@3ds.com        +81 90 9325 2545
    Korea        Jeemin JEONG        jeemin.jeong@3ds.com        +82 2 3271 6653
    India        Priyanka PANDEY        priyanka.pandey@3ds.com        +91 9886302179

    Attachment

    • Dassault Systèmes Announces Centric Software’s Acquisition of AI-Powered PXM Solution, Contentserv

    The MIL Network –

    February 25, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Environment – Invasive predators from the ocean: not only ships, but also many fish use the Panama Canal

    Source: Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB)

    The Panama Canal is a busy maritime route, with 14,000 ships passing through it every year. But this canal is also a potential pathway for the spread of non- native fishes from one ocean to another. 

    Researchers at the Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB), Freie Universität Berlin, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute in Panama and Harvard University have now compared the fish communities of Lake Gatun in the Panama Canal aquatic corridor before and after the canal’s expansion in 2016. 

    Since the extensive structural changes to the canal’s lock system, significantly more marine fish species have entered the freshwater lake; they now make up 76 percent of the total biomass of the fish population and are primarily large predatory fishes. 

    As a result, the lake’s food web is changing and local fisheries are heavily impacted. There is also an increased risk that some species will pass through the canal and colonize the opposite ocean – with important ecological and evolutionary consequences.

    Maritime shipping is one of the most important introduction pathways for invasive species. Historically, species introductions through the Panama Canal have been relatively low, largely due to the existence of a soft barrier – the freshwater artificial Lake Gatun – inside the Canal. However, the 2016 expansion of the Panama Canal involved major structural changes to the canal’s lock system, which may have increased the likelihood that more marine fish species and greater numbers of them enter the lake and eventually cross the canal. This is because the new locks for the passage of mega-ships (called Neopanamax) are substantially larger than the old ones. So for every ship transit through the new locks, more freshwater flows into the sea, but also more seawater enters Lake Gatun – and therefore potentially more marine fishes.

    The research team compared the fish populations before (2013-2016) and after (2019-2023) the expansion of the canal. They used a unique long-term series of scientific standardized catch data on the number, biomass and spatial distribution of the fish community. “The Panama Canal has the potential to connect the marine biota of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, which have been separated for three million years. Before the canal’s expansion, this potential was relatively low. Now it looks that the permeability of the canal to interoceanic invasions is increasing after its expansion”, said Gustavo A. Castellanos-Galindo. He is one of the two lead authors of the study and a researcher at IGB, FU Berlin and the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute.

    After the canal expansion: the proportion of marine fish species in total mass increased from 26 to 76 percent

    Since 2016, the composition of the fish community in Lake Gatun has significantly shifted from freshwater to marine fish species. Before the canal’s expansion, marine fishes made up only 26 percent of the total fish biomass; now they account for 76 percent. Of these species, 18 are originally from the Atlantic and five from the Pacific. Prior to 2016, around 57 percent of the biomass of the lake’s fish community consisted of non-native freshwater fishes, particularly the Peacock Bass (Cichla ocellaris var. monoculus) and the Nile Tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus), while native freshwater fishes made up 17 percent. After the expansion, native and non-native freshwater fish species make up only 11 and 13 percent of the total fish biomass, respectively.

    Large predatory fishes from the ocean change the food web and thus the fish stocks for local fisheries

    The researchers also looked at functional groups. These are groups of fish species that use environmental resources in a similar way. With this approach, the impact of the altered fish community on the ecosystem can be better assessed. The team found 15 new functional groups in the fish community of Lake Gatun following the canal’s expansion. The most representative group (by weight) are large pelagic predators, such as the Atlantic Tarpon (Megalops atlanticus). Conversely, eight groups from the pre-enlargement period are missing: they correspond mainly to native freshwater fish species, mostly small in size, that feed on detritus or are omnivores, for example Brycon petrosus. “The food web in Lake Gatun is being severely altered by the novel marine fish species. This has also important impacts on local fisheries”, said Prof. Jonathan Jeschke, co-author of the study and researcher at IGB and FU Berlin.

    Risk of interoceanic invasions

    The researchers also investigated the risk that these changes pose for possible interoceanic migrations. “The increase in marine organisms in this water corridor could represent a potential invasion in progress, increasing the likelihood that some species will pass through the canal and colonize the opposite ocean. Since most of these marine fish are apex predators with a broad niche range, their colonization of the Atlantic and Pacific is likely to alter ecological interactions and possibly lead to ecosystem-level changes”, said Gustavo A. Castellanos-Galindo.

    Publication:

    Gustavo A. Castellanos-Galindo, Diana M.T. Sharpe, D. Ross Robertson, Victor Bravo, Jonathan M. Jeschke, Mark E. Torchin, New fish migrations into the Panama Canal increase likelihood of interoceanic invasions in the Americas, Current Biology, 2025, ISSN 0960-9822, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cub.2025.01.049

    Gustavo A. Castellanos-Galindo, IGB: https://www.igb-berlin.de/en/profile/gustavo-castellanos-galindo

    About the Leibniz Institute of Freshwater Ecology and Inland Fisheries (IGB):

    IGB is Germany’s largest and one of the leading international centres for freshwater research. It is also one of the oldest institutions in this field. The roots of the predecessor institutions can be traced back to the end of the 19th century. Today, science at IGB covers a wide range of disciplines – from hydrology, physics, geography, ecology and evolution to socio-ecology, from molecular biology to the study of entire ecosystems and catchments, and from microbial ecology to fish behaviour. 

    Our findings and methods provide an excellent basis to train young scientists and to promote an open knowledge exchange with society. Thus, we contribute to coping with ecological and societal challenges, such as the adaptation to global change, the conservation of aquatic biodiversity and the sustainable use and management of inland waters. https://www.igb-berlin.de/en/

    IGB Newsroom: https://www.igb-berlin.de/en/newsroom

    IGB Newsletter: https://www.igb-berlin.de/en/newsletter

    IGB at Bluesky: @leibnizigb.bsky.social 

    MIL OSI – Submitted News –

    February 25, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Experts offer guidance on using the World Heritage Convention in support of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

    Source: United Nations

    UNESCO convened an expert meeting to identify actions to harness the World Heritage Convention in support of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The meeting confirmed the relevance of the World Heritage Convention to almost all of the 23 global targets of the Global Biodiversity Framework and made recommendations for further action, which will be presented to the World Heritage Committee at its 47th session.

    The 2019 Global Assessment Report of Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services issued by the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) provided the scientific evidence that biodiversity is deteriorating worldwide at rates unprecedented in human history. Yet, biodiversity is fundamental to human well-being, a healthy planet, and economic prosperity.

    The World Heritage Convention is among the most successful site-based conservation instruments, with a significant contribution to biodiversity conservation, according to a UNESCO study.

    The Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework adopted by the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity is a real opportunity for the biodiversity conventions to work together. We should make use of the extraordinary capacity of the World Heritage Convention to support biodiversity conservation.

    In response to the Committee’s decisions 45 COM 7.2 and 46 COM 7, UNESCO organized in collaboration with the Advisory Bodies an expert meeting on the synergies and opportunities between the World Heritage Convention and the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The workshop was hosted by the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (Bundesamt für Naturschutz) at its International Academy for Nature Conservation on the Isle of Vilm, Germany, and took place from 25 to 29 November 2024.

    The meeting experts reaffirmed the unique contribution of the World Heritage Convention to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, and the relevance of the Global Biodiversity Framework to both natural and cultural sites. They identified a range of recommendations for the World Heritage Committee, States Parties, and the UNESCO Secretariat and Advisory Bodies, including 19 priority actions.

    Among the key actions, States Parties should integrate priorities for the implementation of the World Heritage Convention into their National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans, as requested by the World Heritage Committee (Decision 45 COM 7.2). This is important to ensure that current World Heritage properties and potential new sites become an international priority for dedicated funding mechanisms for the Global Biodiversity Framework.

    The Global Biodiversity Framework also sets targets for respecting the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in biodiversity conservation and provides new opportunities for cultural sites to contribute to nature conservation. States Parties, Indigenous Peoples and World Heritage properties can work with initiatives such as the Joint Programme of Work on the links between Biological and Cultural Diversity to support the implementation of the targets.

    World Heritage properties often overlap with other international designations such as Ramsar wetland sites, Biosphere Reserves and UNESCO Global Geoparks. In addition, the protection and management of World Heritage properties may be relevant to the implementation of other biodiversity- or culture-related conventions, such as the Convention for the Safeguarding of the Intangible Cultural Heritage, Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) and the Convention on Migratory Species (CMS). Improved cooperation between the Conventions and programmes could create greater coherence and have results at a larger scale.

    The meeting was made possible thanks to the support of the German Federal Agency for Nature Conservation, and the financial contributions of the Swiss Federal Office for Environment (FOEN) and the Government of Norway to the World Heritage Fund.

    About the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

    The 15th Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), convened under the auspices of the United Nations, adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. Through four goals and 23 targets, it sets out an ambitious plan to take urgent action to halt and reverse biodiversity loss to put nature on a path to recovery for the benefit of people and planet by 2030, in line with the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and to ensure that the shared vision of living in harmony with nature is realised by 2050.

    About the Joint Programme of Work on the links between Biological and Cultural Diversity

    The Joint Programme of Work (JPoW) on the links between Biological and Cultural Diversity was initially adopted at COP10 of the CBD in 2010 to explore the links and opportunities for improving the protection of biological and cultural diversity. It was a way for UNESCO to help connect the nature and culture themes under the Aichi Targets, in cooperation with the Secretariat of the CBD. Parties at COP15 renewed the mandate of the JPoW, including inviting UNESCO, the Secretariat of the CBD, the IUCN, the International Indigenous Forum on Biodiversity (IIFB) and advisory bodies to work together on a roadmap for improve an integrated approach to supporting biodiversity, linguistic and cultural diversity. UNESCO is currently the lead agency for the International Decade of Indigenous Languages (2022-2032), providing an important platform to achieve such cooperation in policy and in action. 

    Summary recommendations 

    English

    Meeting report 

    English

    MIL OSI United Nations News –

    February 25, 2025
  • MIL-OSI United Nations: New Permanent Representative of Portugal Presents Credentials to the Director-General of the United Nations Office at Geneva

    Source: United Nations – Geneva

    João António da Costa Mira Gomes, the new Permanent Representative of Portugal to the United Nations Office at Geneva, today presented his credentials to Tatiana Valovaya, the Director-General of the United Nations Office at Geneva.

    Prior to his appointment to Geneva, Mr. da Costa Mira Gomes had been serving as Portugal’s Ambassador to Spain since February 2020. He served as Ambassador to Germany from 2015 to 2020, and as Permanent Representative to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in Brussels from 2010 to 2015.  He was also Embassy Secretary at the Portuguese Delegation to the Organization from 1987 to 1993.       

    Mr. da Costa Mira Gomes was Portugal’s Secretary of State for National Defence and Maritime Affairs from 2006 to 2009.  He was Portugal’s Representative to the European Union’s Political and Security Committee and Permanent Representative to the Western European Union in Brussels in 2005 and 2006.  Other positions he has held include being Minister Counsellor at the Portuguese Embassy in Paris from 2001 to 2005; Chargé d’Affaires at the Portuguese Embassy in Sofia, on special assignment, in 2000 and 2001; and Chief of Staff to the Director-General for Foreign Policy in 1996 and 1997.

    Mr. da Costa Mira Gomes has a law degree from the Portuguese Catholic University.  He joined the Diplomatic Service in 1984.  He was born in Lisbon on 4 December 1959 and is married with two children.

    ________

    Produced by the United Nations Information Service in Geneva for use of the media; 
    not an official record. English and French versions of our releases are different as they are the product of two separate coverage teams that work independently.

     

    CR.25.054E

    MIL OSI United Nations News –

    February 25, 2025
  • MIL-OSI NGOs: Germany: Human rights must be a priority for new government after ‘poisonous’ electoral campaign

    Source: Amnesty International –

    24 Feb 2025, 11:08am

    Reacting to the Bundestag elections results, Julia Duchrow, Amnesty International Germany’s Secretary General, said:

    “This election campaign was divisive poison for our society. It is not mistrust or racist agitation that makes our coexistence safe, but a commitment to the fundamental values of our society: inalienable human rights.

    “We therefore call on all parties tasked with forming a government to recognise the non-negotiability of human rights and international law.

    “The next German government must work to build a strong civil society, bring an end to misanthropic debates and strengthen international law and the institutions that uphold it.

    “In recent weeks, a huge wave of solidarity has emerged in Germany and the activists who stand up for human rights and challenge racism and discrimination need our support, now more than ever.

    “We must ensure that this wave of solidarity does not ebb away and that we remain active and united. We must demonstrate our commitment to the rule of law and human rights wherever we are: in our neighbourhoods, our workplaces and our homes.”

    View latest press releases

    MIL OSI NGO –

    February 25, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Union Minister Dr. Mansukh Mandaviya Inaugurates the First-ever Regional Dialogue on Social Justice

    Source: Government of India (2)

    Union Minister Dr. Mansukh Mandaviya Inaugurates the First-ever Regional Dialogue on Social Justice

    74th Foundation Day of the Employees’ State Insurance Corporation (ESIC) Celebrated

    Director General, ILO, Gilbert F. Houngbo Praises India’s Efforts in Doubling Social Protection Coverage to 49%

    Posted On: 24 FEB 2025 8:05PM by PIB Delhi

    Union Minister of Labour & Employment and Youth Affairs & Sports, Dr. Mansukh Mandaviya inaugurated the first-ever two-day Regional Dialogue on Social Justice under the Global Coalition for Social Justice in New Delhi today. Director General, International Labour Organization (ILO), Mr. Gilbert F. Houngbo, graced the event with his presence. Union Minister of State for Labour & Employment, Ms. Shobha Karandlaje, Secretary (Labour & Employment), Ms. Sumita Dawra, along with other dignitaries were also present at this prestigious international dialogue.

    Commemorating the 74th Foundation Day of the Employees’ State Insurance Corporation (ESIC), an award ceremony to felicitate achievements across its organisations was also held.

    Launched in 2023, the Global Coalition for Social Justice calls for a collaborative approach and commitment towards promoting decent work, social protection, responsible business conduct and fair work. The Global Coalition has around 340 members of the Global Coalition including Governments, academia, private sector, financial institutions, etc.

    Addressing the gathering, Dr. Mansukh Mandaviya, emphasized India’s role as a proud member of the Asia Pacific Coordinating Group, leading the first Regional Dialogue. He expressed joy in championing the key Coalition intervention, stating, “India is privileged to spearhead the initiative on Responsible Business Practices for Sustainable and Inclusive Societies.” Union Minister commended the BMS and the CII-EFI’s shared commitment to ethical and sustainable business practices, respect for workers’ rights, and inclusive economic growth. “Under the dynamic leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has undertaken significant steps towards economic transformation. The next five years present a unique opportunity to realize our vision of ‘Sabka Vikas’—balanced growth for all regions and communities,” he asserted.

    During the occasion, Dr. Mandaviya launched the e-Shram mobile app, a key step in strengthening social benefits delivery by offering real-time access to government welfare schemes, intelligent benefit filtering, curated job listings aligned with users’ skills and location, and multilingual support.

    Mr. Gilbert F. Houngbo, Director-General of the ILO, congratulated the Government of India for the efforts in doubling India’s social protection from 24.4% to 48.8% as reported in the World Social Protection Report (WSPR) 2024. Recognizing India’s important role in ILO’s leadership, DG ILO remarked that India’s efforts in business growth along with social protection serves as a good example to inspire change and improve social protection systems across the world. He mentioned that this remarkable achievement is an outcome of the decisive actions taken by the Central Government in expanding social protection in the past few years.

    Union Minister of State for Labour & Employment, Smt. Shobha Karandlaje, emphasized that social justice cannot be achieved through a one-size-fit-all approach. She underscored that social justice is embedded in India’s constitutional commitments. Reiterating India’s remarkable progress reported in the WSPR, she highlighted that India’s efforts in improving social protection, drove a 5% increase in the global social protection coverage. Congratulating ESIC on its 74th Foundation Day, she acknowledged its role in strengthening social security and announced the government’s plans to extend coverage to unorganized, agricultural, construction, gig, and platform workers.

    Addressing the gathering, Secretary MoLE, Smt. Sumita Dawra, praised the ILO’s Global Coalition for Social Justice for strengthening global cooperation. Highlighting India as the fastest-growing major economy with a vision of Viksit Bharat by 2047, she emphasized the country’s foundation on social justice principles, strong demographic dividend with 65% of the population under the age of 35, and a commitment to employment generation, equity, and welfare. She reiterated India’s goal of achieving 70% females engaged in economic activity by 2047, and applauded industry leaders for adopting responsible business practices, including youth skill development, education, and women’s workforce participation.

    During the occasion, India’s largest workers association, the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS) joined the Global Coalition for Social Justice. Through a Joint Statement on Responsible Business Conduct presented by the Bharatiya Mazdoor Sangh (BMS) and the Confederation of Indian Industry-Employers’ Federation of India (CII-EFI), these organisations showcased their commitment towards this agenda.

    Additionally, several key publications were unveiled, including Best Practices on Responsible Business Conduct in India, Position Paper on Transforming India’s Social Protection Landscape through Data Pooling, Compendium of Social Protection in India, Social Security for Informal Workers: Reflections & Learnings from ISSA-ESIC International Seminar, 2025, and Shram Samarth: A Journey to Excellence.

    An exhibition on the sidelines of the event showcased the innovative use of technology in labour welfare, social security, medical care, personnel management, industrial safety, and more. Participants demonstrated how technology is driving positive change in the ecosystem, enhancing services and outreach for workers.

    A series of insightful technical sessions brought together global experts, policymakers, and industry leaders to advance discussions on youth empowerment, social justice, and inclusion. These sessions explored strategies to bridge the education-to-employment gap, expand social protection for informal workers, and promote gender equality in the workforce. Key stakeholders from India, the Philippines, Namibia, Germany, Australia, Brazil, and international organizations such as the ILO and UN Women shared best practices, including digital skilling platforms, social security frameworks, and gender-responsive workplace policies. Emphasizing collaboration and innovation, the discussions reinforced the importance of public-private partnerships in fostering inclusive economic growth and ensuring equitable opportunities for all.

    Today’s event showcases the progress India has made on the global centre stage. India’s social justice growth journey including 3.2% unemployment rate, modernized labour codes, 48.8% social protection coverage, partnering with ILO on determining living wages, building responsible business conduct, showcasing success business case studies, leading the regional agenda in Asia Pacific, is an epitome of India’s confidence and critical positioning.

    Taking a collaborative approach to further strengthening India’s social protection coverage, making significant strides in developing the G20 international referencing classification of occupations, and advancing the decent work country programme with focus on living wages, AI and Future of Work and Global Value Chains, the two-day summit will prove to be a pathbreaking initiative and a global movement for strengthened cooperation.

    *****

    Himanshu Pathak

    (Release ID: 2105900) Visitor Counter : 28

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

    February 25, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: A Palestinian-Israeli film is an Oscars favorite − so why is it so hard to see?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Drew Paul, Associate Professor of Arabic, University of Tennessee

    Directors Basel Adra, left, and Yuval Abraham on stage at the 62nd New York Film Festival on Sept. 29, 2024. Jamie McCarthy/Getty Images

    For many low-budget, independent films, an Oscar nomination is a golden ticket.

    The publicity can translate into theatrical releases or rereleases, along with more on-demand rentals and sales.

    However, for “No Other Land,” a Palestinian-Israeli film nominated for best documentary at the 2025 Academy Awards, this exposure is unlikely to translate into commercial success in the U.S. That’s because the film has been unable to find a company to distribute it in America.

    “No Other Land” chronicles the efforts of Palestinian townspeople to combat an Israeli plan to demolish their villages in the West Bank and use the area as a military training ground. It was directed by four Palestinian and Israeli activists and journalists: Basel Adra, who is a resident of the area facing demolition, Yuval Abraham, Hamdan Ballal and Rachel Szor. While the filmmakers have organized screenings in a number of U.S. cities, the lack of a national distributor makes a broader release unlikely.

    Film distributors are a crucial but often unseen link in the chain that allows a film to reach cinemas and people’s living rooms. In recent years it has become more common for controversial award-winning films to run into issues finding a distributor. Palestinian films have encountered additional barriers.

    As a scholar of Arabic who has written about Palestinian cinema, I’m disheartened by the difficulties “No Other Land” has faced. But I’m not surprised.

    The role of film distributors

    Distributors are often invisible to moviegoers. But without one, it can be difficult for a film to find an audience.

    Distributors typically acquire rights to a film for a specific country or set of countries. They then market films to movie theaters, cinema chains and streaming platforms. As compensation, distributors receive a percentage of the revenue generated by theatrical and home releases.

    The film “Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat,” another finalist for best documentary, shows how this process typically works. It premiered at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2024 and was acquired for distribution just a few months later by Kino Lorber, a major U.S.-based distributor of independent films.

    The inability to find a distributor is not itself noteworthy. No film is entitled to distribution, and most films by newer or unknown directors face long odds.

    However, it is unusual for a film like “No Other Land,” which has garnered critical acclaim and has been recognized at various film festivals and award shows. Some have pegged it as a favorite to win best documentary at the Academy Awards. And “No Other Land” has been able to find distributors in Europe, where it’s easily accessible on multiple streaming platforms.

    So why can’t “No Other Land” find a distributor in the U.S.?

    There are a couple of factors at play.

    Shying away from controversy

    In recent years, film critics have noticed a trend: Documentaries on controversial topics have faced distribution difficulties. These include a film about a campaign by Amazon workers to unionize and a documentary about Adam Kinzinger, one of the few Republican congresspeople to vote to impeach Donald Trump in 2021.

    The Israeli-Palestinian conflict, of course, has long stirred controversy. But the release of “No Other Land” comes at a time when the issue is particularly salient. The Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, and the ensuing Israeli bombardment and invasion of the Gaza Strip have become a polarizing issue in U.S. domestic politics, reflected in the campus protests and crackdowns in 2024. The filmmakers’ critical comments about the Israeli occupation of Palestine have also garnered backlash in Germany.

    Locals attend a screening of ‘No Other Land’ in the village of A-Tuwani in the West Bank on March 14, 2024.
    Yahel Gazit/Middle East Images/AFP via Getty Images

    Yet the fact that this conflict has been in the news since October 2023 should also heighten audience interest in a film such as “No Other Land” – and, therefore, lead to increased sales, the metric that distributors care about the most.

    Indeed, an earlier film that also documents Palestinian protests against Israeli land expropriation, “5 Broken Cameras,” was a finalist for best documentary at the 2013 Academy Awards. It was able to find a U.S. distributor. However, it had the support of a major European Union documentary development program called Greenhouse. The support of an organization like Greenhouse, which had ties to numerous production and distribution companies in Europe and the U.S., can facilitate the process of finding a distributor.

    By contrast, “No Other Land,” although it has a Norwegian co-producer and received some funding from organizations in Europe and the U.S., was made primarily by a grassroots filmmaking collective.

    Stages for protest

    While distribution challenges may be recent, controversies surrounding Palestinian films are nothing new.

    Many of them stem from the fact that the system of film festivals, awards and distribution is primarily based on a movie’s nation of origin. Since there is no sovereign Palestinian state – and many countries and organizations have not recognized the state of Palestine – the question of how to categorize Palestinian films has been hard to resolve.

    In 2002, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences rejected the first ever Palestinian film submitted to the best foreign language film category – Elia Suleiman’s “Divine Intervention” – because Palestine was not recognized as a country by the United Nations. The rules were changed for the following year’s awards ceremony.

    In 2021, the cast of the film “Let It Be Morning,” which had an Israeli director but primarily Palestinian actors, boycotted the Cannes Film Festival in protest of the film’s categorization as an Israeli film rather than a Palestinian one.

    Film festivals and other cultural venues have also become places to make statements about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and engage in protest. For example, at the Cannes Film Festival in 2017, the right-wing Israeli culture minister wore a controversial – and meme-worthy – dress that featured the Jerusalem skyline in support of Israeli claims of sovereignty over the holy city, despite the unresolved status of Jerusalem under international law.

    Israeli Culture Minister Miri Regev wears a dress featuring the old city of Jerusalem during the Cannes Film Festival in 2017.
    Antonin Thuillier/AFP via Getty Images

    At the 2024 Academy Awards, a number of attendees, including Billie Eilish, Mark Ruffalo and Mahershala Ali, wore red pins in support of a ceasefire in Gaza, and pro-Palestine protesters delayed the start of the ceremonies.

    So even though a film like “No Other Land” addresses a topic of clear interest to many people in the U.S., it faces an uphill battle to finding a distributor.

    I wonder whether a win at the Oscars would even be enough.

    This article has been updated to clarify that the film was a collaborative effort between Palestinian and Israeli filmmakers.

    Drew Paul does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A Palestinian-Israeli film is an Oscars favorite − so why is it so hard to see? – https://theconversation.com/a-palestinian-israeli-film-is-an-oscars-favorite-so-why-is-it-so-hard-to-see-249233

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    February 25, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: German election: the results explained as Friedrich Merz comes out swinging for Europe

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ed Turner, Reader in Politics, Co-Director, Aston Centre for Europe, Aston University

    Friedrich Merz, the presumptive chancellor of Germany, has confirmed he will seek a coalition with the social democratic SPD after the Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) won the February 23 election, topping the poll with 28.5%. Although the SPD has gone from winning the last election to a record low result of 16.4% of the vote, it remains the only credible coalition partner for presumptive chancellor and CDU leader Friedrich Merz.

    Among Merz’s first acts was a bold statement that his first priority is “to strengthen Europe as quickly as possible so that, step by step, we can really achieve independence from the USA”.

    Things might have looked different for Merz. Had a small party, (the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, or BSW) won just 0.03% less of the vote, Merz would have needed to find a third coalition partner. That would have most likely meant trying to work with the Greens. This would have been a much more difficult circle to square for the centre right and an option that would have come with a far greater risk of early government collapse, if a deal could even have been reached in the first place.

    The far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) had a record result, coming second with a 20.8% share of the vote. Mainstream parties including the CDU/CSU have ruled out any sort of deal with the far right, which the AfD will now be viewing as an opportunity. A further period of CDU/CSU-SPD government at a time of economic challenges will leave the party feeling it has a good opportunity to capitalise on discontent and grow further.

    The 2025 election saw a record low vote share for the CDU/CSU and SPD. It’s notable that none of the leaders of the one-time Volksparteien (“people’s parties” – with a cross-class, cross-society appeal) were popular. Merz fared best among them but on a scale of -5 to +5 for popularity, he achieved an average of precisely 0.

    Worse still was the situation of the centre-right FDP, which crashed out of the parliament on a grand scale, getting just 4.3%, down 7.1 points. Its leader, Christian Lindner, who had brought about the downfall of the previous “traffic light” coalition between his own party, the SPD and the Greens, announced his retirement from politics. The Greens, with a respectable result (11.6%, down 3.1 points), will prepare for a spell in opposition.

    The election shows a country disunited, a long way from being at ease with itself. Observers are immediately struck by the difference between eastern and western Germany. In the east, the far right Alternative for Germany (AfD) came first in all five states (excluding Berlin, which is a mix of east and west). In the west, with some exceptions, the CDU/CSU was dominant.




    Read more:
    These maps of support for Germany’s far-right AfD lay bare the depth of the urban-rural divide


    It has been evident for some time that concerns about migration as well as a feeling of being treated as second class citizens is driving up support for the far right in the east. Now, opposition to military support for Ukraine and general pessimism are also playing into the trend.

    Age proved another very significant divide. Among those aged 18 to 24, the Left party got 25%, ahead of the AfD (21%). The CDU/CSU took just 13% and the SPD 12% . Among the over 60s, the picture is reversed. The CDU/CSU took 37% and the SPD 23%, while the AfD took 15% and the Left just 5%.

    The Left’s success, at least among the young, was the one big surprise of the election. After a torrid period which saw the departure of leading figure Sahra Wagenknecht and her followers to form a separate party, the Left looked unlikely to meet the 5% vote share threshold needed to enter parliament until very recently. An internal split over Israel and Gaza was also causing difficulties.

    However, the Left profited from the polarisation caused by Friedrich Merz’s decision to press ahead with a vote on hardline policies towards asylum seekers, including more border checks and turning away irregular migrants without processing an asylum claim. A savvy social media campaign spearheaded by the party’s youthful joint parliamentary leader Heidi Reichinnek also helped.

    Meanwhile, the BSW took just 4.97% of the national vote and will therefore not have any seats in parliament. It is however worth noting that the BSW’s popularity was also extremely uneven across the country and another example of geographical division. While it tanked nationally, its anti-migration, “anti-woke” and pro-welfare policies, mixed with its criticism of support for Ukraine, was a more popular offering in the east with results around the 10% mark, double the national average.

    What now for Europe?

    The SPD has claimed it will not enter government at any price. It has hinted it will put any coalition proposals to a vote among party members as a way of trying to exercise leverage over Merz. But, in truth, the party has nowhere else to go. There is no alternative to a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition apart from early elections or a fundamental rethink of the former’s approach to the AfD. Neither is an attractive prospect.

    All parties are also acutely aware of the tremendous pressure from other European countries for Germany to get its act together in the context of US president Trump’s assertiveness and the need to support Ukraine. But there are huge challenges to address on the domestic front. Merz has pledged tax cuts and higher defence expenditure, but there is no clarity at all how these will be paid for. Drastic reductions in welfare and other social expenditure would likely be a “no go” area for the SPD. An option might be to loosen Germany’s “debt brake” – constitutional restrictions on government borrowing. This is something Merz has been reluctant to do, but he has hinted he might consider it in the aftermath of the vote. This fundamental reform would need a two-thirds majority in both chambers of parliament, and if extra funds were only for defence, it is possible the Left and the AfD would combine to defeat it.

    So Germany’s election gives us a paradox: in some ways the outcome is rather familiar, with an old-school Christian democrat leading a coalition with the SPD, another party with a long track record in government – and indeed with some prospect of German leadership in Europe. But it is also a deeply uncertain result. Germany is a country facing huge challenges: sluggish growth, war in Europe and a US president questioning key tenets of the post-war transatlantic relationship. It’s not clear how to put together a governing coalition that can agree on how to face these challenges, and which can satisfy a starkly divided electorate. Turbulent times, in the country and across the continent, may well be ahead.

    Ed Turner receives funding from the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation.

    – ref. German election: the results explained as Friedrich Merz comes out swinging for Europe – https://theconversation.com/german-election-the-results-explained-as-friedrich-merz-comes-out-swinging-for-europe-250690

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    February 25, 2025
  • MIL-OSI Global: Africa relies too heavily on foreign aid for health – 4 ways to fix this

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Francisca Mutapi, Professor in Global Health Infection and Immunity. and co-Director of the Global Health Academy, University of Edinburgh

    There’s been a global trend in the reduction of aid to Africa since 2018. Donors are shifting their funding priorities in response to domestic and international agendas. Germany, France and Norway, for instance, have all reduced their aid to Africa in the past five years. And, in 2020, the UK government reduced its Overseas Development Aid from 0.7% of gross national income to 0.5%.

    Many health services across the African continent rely heavily on overseas aid to provide essential care. International funding supports everything from vaccines and HIV treatment to maternal health programmes.

    Cuts to aid, particularly unilateral ones, can have widespread implications. For instance, about 72 million people missed out on treatment for neglected tropical diseases between 2021 and 2022 due to UK aid cuts.

    The freeze of US aid to Africa in January 2025 is the latest in this trend. It’s already having significant and wide-ranging impacts across the African continent. For example, vaccination campaigns for polio eradication and HIV/Aids treatment through the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (Pepfar) have been stopped. This puts millions of lives at risk. In South Africa alone, the cut of Pepfar’s US$400 million a year to HIV programmes risks patients defaulting on treatment, infection rates going up and eventually a rise in deaths.

    President Donald Trump’s actions have highlighted Africa’s reliance on foreign aid for health funding. I’m a global health expert who sits on various funding and advisory boards, including those of the World Health Organization (WHO), the UK government and boards of global resource mobilisation organisations. I am well aware of the competing funding priorities for international funders and have long advocated for local, sustainable health funding mechanisms.

    Long-term strategies to reduce aid dependency are critical. Breaking away from this current funding status requires concerted efforts building on proven best practice.




    Read more:
    How nonprofits abroad can fill gaps when the US government cuts off foreign aid


    Country-leadership and ownership

    African countries currently face the unique challenge of simultaneously dealing with high rates of communicable diseases, such as malaria and HIV/Aids, and rising levels of non-communicable diseases, such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.

    But Africa’s health systems are not sufficiently resourced. They’re not able to provide appropriate, accessible and affordable healthcare to address these challenges.

    African governments spend less than 10% of their GDP on health, amounting to capital expenditure of US$4.5 billion. This falls short of the estimated US$26 billion annual investment needed to meet evolving health needs.

    Aid goes towards filling this funding gap. For example, in 2021, half of sub-Saharan African countries relied on external financing, such as grants and loans, for more than one-third of their health expenditures.

    Foreign aid has helped. But it clearly leaves African countries vulnerable to the political mood swings among funders.

    It also leads to loss of self-determination in terms of health priorities as, ultimately, the funder determines the health priorities. This is one reason why many programmes in Africa focus on a single disease, such as HIV. This leads to poorly integrated health services. For instance health workers or services are channelled into managing a single disease.

    New, underutilised financing options

    The current trajectory of reduced aid to Africa is likely to continue. Global aid is being directed to other challenges, such as conflict and illegal immigration.

    The continent cannot continue on the same path while hoping for different outcomes. Africa needs to grow a range of immediately available domestic financing options. Many of these are underutilised and include:

    1.) Diversifying domestic resource mobilisation. This should include commodity taxation to fund health. For instance, tobacco taxes which are currently underutilised in Africa.

    Zimbabwe offers a successful example. It has bridged donor resource gaps through its 3% Aids levy (started in 1999). Imposed on both individual and corporate incomes, it funds domestic HIV/Aids prevention, care and treatment programmes.

    Nigeria’s another country that’s taken initiative, prioritising domestic budget allocation to health. It recently absorbed the 28,000 healthworkers formerly paid by USAid. This demonstrates that domestic health financing in Africa is possible.

    2.) More private-public partnerships. Formed between local and international philanthropies or institutions, these can bridge financing gaps.

    One successful example is the 2015 health service provision partnership between the Kenyan government and GE Healthcare. GE Healthcare provides radiography equipment and services which the government pays for over time. This allows the government to budget and plan healthcare expenditure over several years.

    3.) Promotion of regional integration to boost local production. This will reduce the need for aid-funded imported medical products.

    For instance, the African Union’s harmonised Africa Medicines Authority registration facility creates a single continental market for medicines. This supports local producers and exporters, by allowing them to operate on a larger scale. It also makes production and distribution more cost-effective. Finally, it reduces the reliance on imported medicines, strengthening Africa’s pharmaceutical industry.

    4.) Leverage development finance institutions. These are specialised financial organisations – such as the Africa Development Bank, African Export-Import Bank and the Development Bank of Southern Africa. They can provide capital and expertise to projects deemed too risky for traditional investors. This includes support for health financing for infrastructure development, private sector development for small and medium-sized enterprises and the regional integration.

    One transformative initiative is the AfricInvest investment platform. With support from development finance institutions in the US and Europe, AfricInvest has raised over US$100 million for health investment in Africa. It has funded at least 45 dialysis facilities in Africa, delivering over 130,000 dialysis sessions annually, primarily to remote and underserved communities all at affordable costs.

    A combination of these approaches at national, regional and continental level will accelerate Africa’s withdrawal from aid dependency.

    Francisca Mutapi receives funding from the Aspen Global Innovation Programme, Scottish Funding Council funding to the University of Edinburgh, Academy of Medical Sciences, British Academy and the Royal Society. Francisca Mutapi is the Deputy Director of the Tackling Infections to Benefit Africa (TIBA) Partnership and Deputy Board Chair of Uniting to Combat NTDS. She sits on the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) and WHO Africa Regional Director’s Scientific Advisory Groups.

    – ref. Africa relies too heavily on foreign aid for health – 4 ways to fix this – https://theconversation.com/africa-relies-too-heavily-on-foreign-aid-for-health-4-ways-to-fix-this-249886

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

    February 25, 2025
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