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Category: Global

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is ‘ballot curing’? Election expert explains the method for fixing errors made when voters cast their ballots

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Paul Gronke, Professor of Political Science and Director, Elections & Voting Infomation Center, Reed College

    An imperfect signature on an absentee ballot can necessitate ballot ‘curing,’ when election workers verify the voter’s identity. Bill Oxford/iStock via Getty

    Most Americans used to vote on Election Day, and a small percentage of voters cast their ballots as absentee voters through the mail. That changed starting in the late 1970s, when some states began to allow no-excuse absentee voting and early in-person voting. Many more states chose to add these methods after the 2000 election, and by 2022, 60% of votes were cast in person at a polling place on Election Day, 21% were cast by mail and 19% were cast early in-person.

    In the 2020 election, many states accelerated the shift already underway to voting by mail to keep people safe from contracting COVID-19. Mail ballots were the dominant method of return that year: 43% of ballots were voted by mail, 31% on Election Day and 26% early in-person. Voting by mail remains the second-most common method of returning ballots and will continue to grow – though it may never reach the level of 2020.

    This rise in usage has created an issue that wasn’t seen much before: The need to “fix” a ballot where, due to a variety of reasons, the identity of the voter who cast the ballot can’t be verified. This process is called ballot “curing,” and it’s how states ensure that every valid vote is counted.

    The Conversation’s politics and democracy editor, Naomi Schalit, spoke about ballot curing with Reed College political scientist Paul Gronke, founder and director of the Elections & Voting Information Center, who studies early voting, election administration, public opinion and elections.

    What is ballot curing?

    Ballot curing is a process that is allowed in some states that, if a ballot has been rejected or challenged because the signature didn’t match or a copy of an ID needed to be included, then the voter has an opportunity to come in within a limited period of time and cure that problem. They can, for example, come in and provide an updated or corrected signature – the most common problem – or provide the required identification.

    An election worker curing a defective ballot cast in the 2024 presidential primary in Provo, Utah, on March 5.
    George Frey/AFP via Getty

    Can that process happen after Election Day?

    The process is triggered when an election office receives a ballot and identifies a problem that falls within the scope of the law and can be cured. As with seemingly everything in American elections, the deadlines and the window vary by state. Some states provide a quite lengthy period after the election. In Oregon, for example, the law provides a window of up to the 21st day after the election. In other states, it’s pretty narrow. In Michigan, it’s the third day after the election. In many but not all states, it’s tied to the deadline for certification of the vote.

    So the idea is that everybody should have the opportunity to have their vote count.

    I would agree with that. The idea is that we want to give everyone an opportunity to be represented. No one should be disenfranchised because of something relatively innocuous, like their signature doesn’t match, or when their ballot was being transported, it was humid or it rained, or something happened that meant the signature can’t be verified, or they forgot to include a copy of necessary identification. These are certainly not reasons why you would want someone to be disenfranchised.

    The Nevada Secretary of State said told a CNN reporter on Nov. 5, 2024, that the state is seeing a surge in ballots with signature problems, many from young voters. As The Wall Street Journal reported, 12,939 ballots have been cured successfully, and 13,906 ballots remain to be cured. “This is an opportunity, probably their first time they’ve had to really use an official signature,” Secretary of State Cisco Aguilar told CNN, “and what’s on their driver’s license, what’s on their voter registration form and what’s on their ballot is a little bit different.” What’s going on here?

    Young people these days – really, anyone under 40 – did not learn cursive when they were in grammar school. Why is that relevant in an election? Because there are clear patterns that people of a certain generation didn’t sign checks and were not sort-of trained in what election officials describe as writing their “formal signatures.” We also know that as people age, or suffer certain kinds of injuries, their signatures can change. And sometimes, people are just in a rush and don’t sign carefully.

    Are there problems with how election officials in different states handle ballots that need to be cured?

    In 2020, there were these major changes to our election system in order to adapt to provide a safe and secure voting environment during the pandemic. Many states ramped up vote-by-mail for the first time. What we saw in 2020 was that there were laws and procedures that fell out of sync with how people were voting. In some states, they mailed ballots to all eligible voters, yet they had laws that said you can’t begin the process of counting absentee ballots until the day of the election. That led to some slow counts in 2020 and opened up a window for charges of malfeasance, even though all that was happening was that officials were working through these piles of mail ballots.

    Since then, many states have improved their laws and brought them in sync with voter behavior. For example, many more now allow election officials to begin the process of processing mail ballots – checking signatures, opening envelopes, preparing to scan – before Election Day. That should improve the speed of ballot counting in 2024.

    Volunteers inform a voter in Nevada that a ballot mailed from his address has a discrepancy that must be fixed, or ‘cured,’ for it to be counted.
    David Becker for The Washington Post via Getty Images

    But there are still some places that could improve. I will highlight Michigan as an example of a place where I’m a little bit concerned, and I’ve heard this also from Michigan officials. Michigan law says the county clerk shall notify the voter of the ballot deficiency by “telephone, email, or text message, if available.” If neither a phone nor email is available, the clerk uses U.S. mail. The voter may cure the ballot by filling out a cure form and returning it in person, electronically or by mail, but the cured ballot has to arrive back at the clerk’s office by 5 p.m. on the Friday following the election – that’s only three days. That’s really not much time!

    Imagine a number of new voters casting ballots by mail in Ann Arbor, in Washtenaw County, and they vote by mail but turn it in at the last minute. And if there’s a problem with their ballot, then election officials have to generate some communications to them, and maybe they don’t have their cellphone, or the voter isn’t immediately responsive to email, and the whole process has to be completed in three days.

    I have spoken to some local officials in Michigan who think that needs to be changed because the rate of voting by mail in Michigan is so high now – nearly one-third of registered voters requested an absentee ballot as of 21 days before the election, and there will be more absentee ballots requested and returned by Nov. 5.

    It’s not just Michigan. There are a number of states that have comparatively high levels of voting by mail and fairly short curing periods. I don’t know the optimal time period, but anything less than five days is asking too much of clerks and of voters, and could disenfranchise people for making an innocuous mistake.

    The way America votes in 2024 is not the way the country voted in 2000 or even the way we voted in 2016. We are in a world where one-third or more of ballots are vote-at-home ballots, and those numbers will continue to increase. Best practices include providing ample time to allow clerks to notify voters of any problems with their ballots, and voters to provide the necessary information to make sure their ballots are counted. If we can do it that way in Oregon, where I live – and Colorado, and Washington, and many other states – I’m sure other states can do it as well.

    Paul Gronke receives funding from Elections Trust Initiative and Democracy Fund. He is a member of the Advisory Board of the MIT Election Data and Science Lab (MEDSL) and a member of the Circle of Advisors of the National Vote At Home Institute.

    – ref. What is ‘ballot curing’? Election expert explains the method for fixing errors made when voters cast their ballots – https://theconversation.com/what-is-ballot-curing-election-expert-explains-the-method-for-fixing-errors-made-when-voters-cast-their-ballots-243009

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election results: Trump takes first swing state of North Carolina

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    This is a rolling guide to articles and audio published by The Conversation in the immediate run-up to and aftermath of the election, with some explainers about the process. This page is updated from the top, so older references are moved down the page.

    Good morning world. The United States has made its choice. And, as of 5am Donald Trump and the Republican Party will be the happier contenders, having so far won the most electoral college votes and the first swing state of North Carolina, as well as regaining control of the Senate.

    It’s been a turbulent four months since outgoing president Joe Biden announced he was terminating his bid for a second term and the battlelines between the two candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were drawn. Soon we will know who will lead the US for the next four years.

    From here, with the help of some of the sharpest analysts of US politics, we’ll keep you updated and informed as the situation develops.

    To get an idea of the scale of the task of counting votes, take a look at the below map of the US colour-coded by poll closing times. How long the count could take is anyone’s guess at this stage. Each state has its own rules.

    Ahead of the polls closing Richard Hargy, an expert in US politics from Queen’s University Belfast, wrote a guide to the process, when the votes are counted and when we might start to see results.



    Read more:
    US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains

    Delays are baked into the process, such as Pennsylvania, which doesn’t allow votes cast before election day or ballots posted in to be counted until polls close, which was at 8pm (1am GMT).

    So we’ll just have to be patient. In the mean time, you can also read Hargy’s explainer on the “electoral college” system, which can mean that the candidate with the most votes may not win the presidency.



    Read more:
    US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    Early voting and what it might mean

    Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, believes that in a cliffhanger election, a clue to the outcome may be in the size of turnout. More than 80 million Americans voted early – around half of the total turnout in 2020 and around one-third of the eligible electorate.

    The 80 million figure takes on added significance with the recognition that it is not that distant from the 104 million who participated early in the “pandemic” election four years ago. And that 2020 ballot, with 158.4 million votes and almost 67% participation, was the largest turnout since 1900.

    Who does that favour? Probably Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Trumpists will turn out for their man come hell or high water. The large question mark has been whether potential Harris voters would sit on their hands, whether from lack of enthusiasm or dissatisfaction on issues such as Israel’s open-ended war on Gaza.

    Any prediction in this election is a risk. But it might be worth setting a marker: if turnout matches or exceeds the record set in 2020, Kamala Harris could be on the way to the White House.

    Tense moment for the US

    During the campaign there have been two assassination attempts on former president Trump as well as arson attacks on ballot boxes and ballots damaged. In Arizona the Democratic party was forced to close one of its offices after it had been shot at three times.

    Dafydd Townley, a fellow in international security at Portsmouth University, believes that there could be a reluctance to accept the result and that this could result in further disturbances. He has written about how much violence there has been during this campaign.



    Read more:
    US election: officials are issued with panic buttons as attacks on ballot boxes continue

    Dafyyd Townley comments on post-election violence.

    How race has played into the campaign

    Rhianna Garrett, PhD researcher and global coordinator of the critical mixed race studies executive board at Loughborough University, says that Trump’s campaign has been “littered with attempts to weaponise” the multiracial heritage of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.

    Much of this has been a dog-whistle attempt to stir up his own base, partly with fairly blatant appeals to latent feelings of racism, but also as a tool to position Harris as deceiving and untrustworthy by apparently blurring and shifting her own background.

    In August, not long after Harris took over the Democrat ticket from Biden, Trump appeared at the National Association of Black Journalists conference when he wrongfully claimed that Harris was changing her identity, stating: “I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black, So I don’t know. Is she Indian or is she Black?”.

    For her part, Harris’s campaign has also used her multiracial heritage to further their political agendas. On the White House website, she is described as “the first woman, the first Black American, and the first South Asian American” to hold a vice-presidential position, which has effectively attempted to position her as a winner. Harris herself has also foregrounded “race” on her campaign website. In attempt to attack Trump’s campaign, she strategically aims to promote Black and Latino men specifically, as well as women’s rights. These are key voter groups she has aimed to mobilise through identity politics.

    Trump and winning male voters

    Donald Trump widened his appeal to male voters in this election, with polling indicating that he was picking up more support from Black and Latino men, as well as more young men more widely.

    One reason for this may be that in 2024 young men are more conservative than any other group in the US. Another reason why gender has become a divisive issue is the overturning of Roe v Wade, the legal case that gave American women abortion rights.

    Read more on the gender divide in this article from Natasha Lindstaedt, a professor of government at Essex University.



    Read more:
    US election: why more men and fewer white women say they will vote for Trump

    A free speech campaign?

    Julie Posetti, professor of journalism at City St George’s, University of London, and global director of research at the International Center for Journalists, recently conducted a survey of more than 1,000 Americans on their attitudes to the press.

    Breaking down the results, they were able to build a picture of what people in the US think of targeting journalists for criticism and even abuse. You can read all about the study here.



    Read more:
    New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men

    – ref. US election results: Trump takes first swing state of North Carolina – https://theconversation.com/us-election-results-trump-takes-first-swing-state-of-north-carolina-241711

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Extreme weather has already cost vulnerable island nations US$141 billion – and 38% is attributable to climate change

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emily Wilkinson, Principal Research Fellow, ODI

    Multiverse / shutterstock

    Two years ago, when the curtain fell on the COP27 summit in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, developing nations on the frontline of climate change had something meaningful to celebrate.

    The creation of a new fund for responding to loss and damage was agreed after a hard-fought diplomatic effort, spearheaded by a group of small island developing states (sometimes known as the Sids). The fund would provide much needed support for climate-vulnerable nations faced with a spiralling human and financial toll from sea-level rise, extreme temperatures, droughts, wildfires, and intensifying floods and storms.

    Yet two years on, the world’s wealthiest nations – also the largest carbon emitters – are still dragging their feet. They’ve not followed up their pledges with anywhere near the finance required.

    Some nations, particularly the 39 Sids, which include places like Barbados, Grenada, Fiji and Vanuatu, are uniquely vulnerable to climate change and are already paying the price.

    Sky-high ocean temperatures created the conditions for Hurricane Beryl to develop in July this year, as the earliest-forming Category 5 hurricane on record in the Caribbean. As oceans warm up, climate science tells us that this rapid intensification is becoming more common.

    Fijians run for shelter as a cyclone approaches.
    ChameleonsEye / shutterstock

    The island nation of Fiji, best known as a tropical paradise, has experienced a frightening series of storms over recent years, linked to climate change. Cyclone Winston in 2016, one of the most intense on record, caused widespread flooding and lead to the loss of 44 lives.

    This episode reduced Fiji’s GDP growth by 1.4 percentage points. According to the Asian Development Bank, ongoing losses from climate change could reach 4% of Fiji’s annual GDP by 2100, as higher temperatures and more extreme weather hold back growth.

    This isn’t an isolated problem. Tropical cyclones and hurricanes have long battered small islands, but what is new is how often the most extreme storms and floods are happening, as well as our improved ability to measure their economic effects.

    Direct and indirect impacts

    Our latest research looked at extreme weather events affecting 35 small island developing nations. We first collected information about the direct consequences of these extreme weather events: the damaged homes, the injured people, and the bridges that must be rebuilt.

    We then looked at how these events have affected GDP growth and public finances. These changes are not felt immediately, but rather as the economy stalls, tourism dries up, and expensive recovery plans inhibit spending in other areas.

    In all, from 2000 to 2020, these direct and indirect impacts may have cost small island states a total of US$141 billion. That works out to around US$2,000 per person on average, although this figure underplays just how bad things can get in some places. Hurricane Maria in 2017 caused damage to the Caribbean island of Dominica worth more than double its entire GDP. That amounted to around US$20,000 per person, overnight. Almost a decade later, the country is still struggling with one of the largest debt burdens on earth at over 150% of GDP.

    Dominica’s lush forests were badly damaged by Hurricane Maria.
    Derek D Galon / shutterstock

    Of these huge aggregate losses across all the small island development states, around 38% are attributable to climate change. That’s according to calculations we made based on “extreme event attribution” studies, which estimate the degree to which greenhouse gas emissions influenced extreme weather events.

    What is clear is that small island economies are among the worst affected by severe weather. These island states have three to five times more climate-related loss and damage than other states, as a percentage of government revenues. That’s true even for wealthier small island states, like the Bahamas and Barbados, where loss and damage is four times greater than other high-income countries. For all small island nations, the economic impacts will increase, with “attributable” losses from extreme weather reaching US$75 billion by 2050 if global temperatures hit 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

    Our research helps us to see how far short the richer nations driving climate change are falling in their efforts to both curb emissions and to compensate the nations harmed by their failure to prevent climate change.

    Developed countries need to pay up

    One of the key discussions at the forthcoming COP29 climate summit in Baku, Azerbaijan, will be the “new collective quantified goal”. This is the technical name to describe how much money wealthy countries will need to contribute to help vulnerable nations to mitigate and adapt to climate change.

    That overall goal must also include a target to finance small islands and other vulnerable countries, with billions more needed per year in the new loss and damage fund. Given the extent of actual and likely losses, nothing less than ambition on the scale of a “modern Marshall Plan” for these states will do.

    In addition to this extra financing, the fund will need to work effectively to support the most climate vulnerable nations and populations when severe weather occurs. This can be done in a few ways.

    The fund could create a budget support mechanism that can help small island states and other vulnerable countries deal with loss of income and the negative effects on growth. It could make sure loss and damage funds can be released quickly, and ensure support is channelled to those who need it the most. It could also make more concessional finance available for recovery, especially for the most adversely affected sectors like agriculture and tourism.

    The world has a troubling history of missing self-imposed targets on climate finance and emissions reduction. But the stakes are ever higher now, and any target for loss and damage finance will need to be sufficient to deal with the challenges posed already by climate change, and in the years to come.

    Emily Wilkinson receives funding from the UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office

    Ilan Noy, Matt Bishop, and Vikrant Panwar do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Extreme weather has already cost vulnerable island nations US$141 billion – and 38% is attributable to climate change – https://theconversation.com/extreme-weather-has-already-cost-vulnerable-island-nations-us-141-billion-and-38-is-attributable-to-climate-change-242640

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Are these tiny insects the world’s most bone-idle bugs?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Gilbert, Lecturer in Zoology, University of Hull

    Dunatothrips family: two mums, two yellow babies, and, very unusually, a dad (smaller). James Gilbert, CC BY

    At less than 3mm long, you may not think Dunatothrips aneurae seem like much. And – as I have shown in a new study – you’d be absolutely right. That’s because these may be the world’s laziest insects.

    Dunatothrips live in the remote Australian outback where they bother nobody. They almost never leave their near-invisible miniature nests, built on Acacia trees from silk they extrude from their bottom. No known predators bother with Dunatothrips and their biggest threat is drying out in the heat if their nest is damaged. Pacifist vegetarians, they feed harmlessly on the plant surface, with no discernible effect on it.

    No bigger than the hyphen on your page, they belong to the thrips, which you may know as thunderbugs owing to a myth that they come out during thunderstorms. Almost everyone gets their name wrong (one thrips is a thrips, not a thrip). Some species make a nuisance of themselves as tomato pests. But for the Dunatothrips I investigated, that sounds a bit much too much like effort.

    I spent a few summers studying the social lives of these tiny insects, trying to understand their unusual habit of sometimes living alone and sometimes in groups with their sisters. I was puzzled to discover that some group members appear to do nothing. Not helping out, not breeding, nothing. Few animal societies are known where group members help no one, not even themselves.

    If the silk nest was damaged, I found, usually only one or two females inside stepped up to repair it. The remaining group members didn’t do anything. The responders’ repair efforts helped everybody, so the laggards enjoyed the benefits without raising a minuscule finger.

    I set out to investigate what these “lazy” thrips were doing. Were they like queen bees, specialising in producing eggs while others acted as workers? Other social insects have this arrangement, including many other Australian thrips.

    But no: when I dissected helpers and non-helpers I found it was the helpers
    that tended to be the ones carrying eggs.

    Maybe they were a reserve workforce, helping when others were lost, as in
    some bird societies like carrion crows. But when first responders were removed, their nestmates remained just as unhelpful as before.

    The author on a thrips collecting foray.
    James Gilbert, CC BY

    I wondered whether they were biding their time, waiting for a chance to breed later, as paper wasps do. I removed all group members except for a lazy one, gifting it a nest of its very own. They declined this opportunity as well, producing few or no eggs and taking up to five times as long to repair the nest as a helpful thrips put in the same situation.

    If the lazy non-helpers don’t even help themselves, doesn’t that make them an evolutionary paradox? Not really: while behaviour only evolves if it furthers individuals’ fitness, evolution tends to work on averages. Within a species, individuals are all different, and some are inevitably of poorer quality than others. They may carry mutations, inherit unfortunate gene combinations, experience poor environments, or all of the above. Perhaps they were jostled to the edge of the leaf as a kid.

    If life gives you lemons

    Animals in this situation will commonly make the best of a bad job. A poor quality thrips can lay only a few eggs, and can only contribute a few strands of silk to repairing a nest. She can’t build the nest she would need to raise offspring on her own. So her best option is to hang around in a group where her young can grow alongside those of others.

    It’s still a mystery why nestmates of these wastrels don’t kick them out. But it may involve their being unusually chilled out in the face of any provocation, even by dangerous intruders like their cousins Akainothrips, a new species I discovered with my colleagues. The resident Dunatothrips just stand aside.

    This pacifism may be related to how risky nestbuilding is. At any moment, out there on a leaf surface, you might fall, be blown out of the nest, or dry out in the outback sun. Given that you might die at any moment, it pays you to tolerate the presence of others who can carry on your nestbuilding work and help keep everyone’s babies alive.

    A simple evolutionary way to achieve this is to drop all aggression towards anyone, including intruders of different species. Some spiders have done this and form cooperative nurseries involving different spider species. For our lucky waster thrips, this means they get a free pass to stay in the group.

    It is also possible these bone-idle bugs may actually be helping, just in subtle ways. For example, Dunatothrips nests have rubbish dumps, so they might help by taking out the trash. In many social insects, including some thrips, workers can act as medics. Even just breathing inside the nest may raise humidity and help the group survive – cockroaches form groups at low humidity for just this reason.

    So, while non-helper Dunatothrips may be among the world’s least motivated insects, they are certainly not the least interesting. The evolutionary persistence of these laggards is helping us understand how different kinds of societies evolve.

    James Gilbert currently receives funding from UKRI (Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council). This study was funded by a Marie Curie Fellowship (2011-2014) under the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme.

    – ref. Are these tiny insects the world’s most bone-idle bugs? – https://theconversation.com/are-these-tiny-insects-the-worlds-most-bone-idle-bugs-242454

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election results: Trump leads electoral college votes as Republicans regain Senate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    This is a rolling guide to articles and audio published by The Conversation in the immediate run-up to and aftermath of the election, with some explainers about the process. This page is updated from the top, so older references are moved down the page.

    Good morning world. The United States has made its choice. And, as of 5am Donald Trump and the Republican Party will be the happier contenders, having so far won the most electoral college votes and the first swing states of North Carolina and Georgia, as well as regaining control of the Senate.

    It’s been a turbulent four months since outgoing president Joe Biden announced he was terminating his bid for a second term and the battlelines between the two candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were drawn. Soon we will know who will lead the US for the next four years.

    From here, with the help of some of the sharpest analysts of US politics, we’ll keep you updated and informed as the situation develops.

    To get an idea of the scale of the task of counting votes, take a look at the below map of the US colour-coded by poll closing times. How long the count could take is anyone’s guess at this stage. Each state has its own rules.

    Ahead of the polls closing Richard Hargy, an expert in US politics from Queen’s University Belfast, wrote a guide to the process, when the votes are counted and when we might start to see results.



    Read more:
    US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains

    Delays are baked into the process, such as Pennsylvania, which doesn’t allow votes cast before election day or ballots posted in to be counted until polls close, which was at 8pm (1am GMT).

    So we’ll just have to be patient. In the mean time, you can also read Hargy’s explainer on the “electoral college” system, which can mean that the candidate with the most votes may not win the presidency.



    Read more:
    US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    Early voting and what it might mean

    Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, believes that in a cliffhanger election, a clue to the outcome may be in the size of turnout. More than 80 million Americans voted early – around half of the total turnout in 2020 and around one-third of the eligible electorate.

    The 80 million figure takes on added significance with the recognition that it is not that distant from the 104 million who participated early in the “pandemic” election four years ago. And that 2020 ballot, with 158.4 million votes and almost 67% participation, was the largest turnout since 1900.

    Who does that favour? Probably Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Trumpists will turn out for their man come hell or high water. The large question mark has been whether potential Harris voters would sit on their hands, whether from lack of enthusiasm or dissatisfaction on issues such as Israel’s open-ended war on Gaza.

    Any prediction in this election is a risk. But it might be worth setting a marker: if turnout matches or exceeds the record set in 2020, Kamala Harris could be on the way to the White House.

    Tense moment for the US

    During the campaign there have been two assassination attempts on former president Trump as well as arson attacks on ballot boxes and ballots damaged. In Arizona the Democratic party was forced to close one of its offices after it had been shot at three times.

    Dafydd Townley, a fellow in international security at Portsmouth University, believes that there could be a reluctance to accept the result and that this could result in further disturbances. He has written about how much violence there has been during this campaign.



    Read more:
    US election: officials are issued with panic buttons as attacks on ballot boxes continue

    Dafyyd Townley comments on post-election violence.

    How race has played into the campaign

    Rhianna Garrett, PhD researcher and global coordinator of the critical mixed race studies executive board at Loughborough University, says that Trump’s campaign has been “littered with attempts to weaponise” the multiracial heritage of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.

    Much of this has been a dog-whistle attempt to stir up his own base, partly with fairly blatant appeals to latent feelings of racism, but also as a tool to position Harris as deceiving and untrustworthy by apparently blurring and shifting her own background.

    In August, not long after Harris took over the Democrat ticket from Biden, Trump appeared at the National Association of Black Journalists conference when he wrongfully claimed that Harris was changing her identity, stating: “I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black, So I don’t know. Is she Indian or is she Black?”.

    For her part, Harris’s campaign has also used her multiracial heritage to further their political agendas. On the White House website, she is described as “the first woman, the first Black American, and the first South Asian American” to hold a vice-presidential position, which has effectively attempted to position her as a winner. Harris herself has also foregrounded “race” on her campaign website. In attempt to attack Trump’s campaign, she strategically aims to promote Black and Latino men specifically, as well as women’s rights. These are key voter groups she has aimed to mobilise through identity politics.

    Trump and winning male voters

    Donald Trump widened his appeal to male voters in this election, with polling indicating that he was picking up more support from Black and Latino men, as well as more young men more widely.

    One reason for this may be that in 2024 young men are more conservative than any other group in the US. Another reason why gender has become a divisive issue is the overturning of Roe v Wade, the legal case that gave American women abortion rights.

    Read more on the gender divide in this article from Natasha Lindstaedt, a professor of government at Essex University.



    Read more:
    US election: why more men and fewer white women say they will vote for Trump

    A free speech campaign?

    Julie Posetti, professor of journalism at City St George’s, University of London, and global director of research at the International Center for Journalists, recently conducted a survey of more than 1,000 Americans on their attitudes to the press.

    Breaking down the results, they were able to build a picture of what people in the US think of targeting journalists for criticism and even abuse. You can read all about the study here.



    Read more:
    New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men

    When Trump speaks – his supporters hear him loud and clear

    Channel 4 is showing pictures of the Trump party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, where the Maga faithful are celebrating the news that it appears that Trump has retaken Georgia in his second swing-state victory. Their idol is expected to join them soon.

    While we wait for him to speak, here’s a fascinating piece on Trump’s rhetorical style by Loren D. Marsh of the Humboldt University of Berlin. His speeches have been ridiculed by his opponents during the campaign. They say he’s unfocused, rambling and at times nonsensical. He calls it the “weave” and says it’s genius. Marsh says that whatever you may think, it seems to work for his supporters.

    Far from being a liability or an indication he is incapable of staying on message, Trump’s “weave” may well be his intuitive rhetorical strategy, a way of taking control of the media narrative.



    Read more:
    Trump’s speeches are chaotic, rambling, and extremely effective. Aristotle can explain why

    A bad night for the pollsters

    Natasha

    – ref. US election results: Trump leads electoral college votes as Republicans regain Senate – https://theconversation.com/us-election-results-trump-leads-electoral-college-votes-as-republicans-regain-senate-241711

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump takes first swing states of North Carolina and Georgia after voting passes peacefully

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth

    Donald Trump looked poised to take some key battleground states this morning as votes continue to be counted. The Republicans were also being predicted to take control of the Senate.

    North Carolina with its 16 electoral college votes was called for Trump in the early hours of the morning, and another key east coast state, Georgia and its 16 electoral college votes, was also predicted to have been gained by Trump. Trump won other major states, from Iowa to Texas, with a strong showing at the polls.

    As well as this, Republicans have taken back control of the Senate as they were forecast to, after Democrats lost their slender lead. If Trump is victorious, this will provide him with the congressional support he needs to get his appointees ratified and pass laws without obstruction.

    Turnout has been impressive and initial speculation is that Trump has surpassed his rural support from 2020 while Democrat Kamala Harris only matched the suburban numbers that Biden achieved four years ago. NBC exit polls also showed Trump had more support from voters under 30 than any Republican candidate since 2008.

    The BBC reported that early exit polls indicated that voters were most concerned with the state of the democracy (35%) with the economy coming a close second (31%).

    These concerns have led to a turnout that will be just below the 2020 figures, according to Professor Michael McDonald, of the University of Florida.

    In too-close-to-call battleground state Pennsylvania, it was reported that voters were queueing in their hundreds over an hour before the polls opened at 7am.

    In Michigan, another key state in the election, officials said that those voters who had voted early – both the absentee and in-person votes – numbered almost as many as the total votes for the 2020 election.

    Michigan’s Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, said that the state was “on pace to see another high turnout election with voters all across the state enthusiastic and engaged”. And much of it was done in a good atmosphere with election chairperson Jennifer Jenkins telling reporters that it was “good vibes all around”.

    Safety concerns

    Concerns about whether election day would pass peacefully have not kept voters away.

    As revealed in a memo obtained by the non-partisan group, Property of the People, the Department of Homeland Security had issued a warning in September that election infrastructure was “an attractive target for some domestic violent extremists” particularly those with “election-related grievances” who seek to disrupt the democratic process and election operations.

    In the nation’s capital, Washington DC, police arrested a man who was stopped during the screening process at the US Capitol visitor centre. Authorities stated that he smelled like gasoline and had a torch lighter, flare gun and papers he intended to deliver to Congress.

    Capitol Police Chief J. Thomas Manger, speaking at a press conference shortly after the incident, stated that “there is no indication right now that it had anything to do with the election”.

    The greatest threat to the smooth running of the election on polling day seemed not to come from domestic perpetrators but from foreign interference, particularly in the crucial swing state races.

    Several polling stations in Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin were the victims of hoax bomb threats that caused temporary closures of the sites. The threats were believed to be sent by emails that were traced back to Russian email domains.

    In Navajo County in Arizona, four polling stations were the target of bomb threats. Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes told reporters that election officials in the state had “no reason to believe that any of our voters or any of our polling places are in any sort of jeopardy.”

    “We also have reason to believe, although I won’t get into specifics, that this comes from one of our foreign enemies, namely Russia,” he continued.

    In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro announced at a press conference that there had been multiple bomb threats at polling stations and municipal centres across the state.

    Shapiro, who was at one time thought of as a potential running mate for Harris, revealed that “state and local law enforcement – along with the FBI – are investigating these threats and thus far, there is no credible threat to the public”.

    This came after reports emerged of at least ten polling locations in Philadelphia and in surrounding areas were sent a bomb threat via email at 6pm local time.

    Republican Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger accused Russia of being the cause of the threats aimed at polling locations in the southern state. “They don’t want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election, and if they can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory,” he told reporters.

    The FBI stated that it was aware of the threats and that many appeared “to originate from Russian email domains”. The Russian embassy in Washington denied the threats.

    Last Thursday, Georgia was also the subject of what the US intelligence community called a disinformation campaign designed to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election result through an online video that “depicted individuals claiming to be from Haiti and voting illegally in multiple counties in Georgia”.

    Researchers at Clemson University in South Carolina identified the work as being that of Russian disinformation group Storm -1516. Darren Linvill of Clemson University, stated that Russian group had “turned their focus squarely on the US election.”

    And the integrity of this election took a further hit when Republican candidate Donald Trump made unfounded accusations on social media platform Truth Social of election fraud in Philadelphia, a must-win state for the former president.

    Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner said through a spokesperson that “the only talk about massive cheating has come from one of the candidates, Donald J. Trump. There is no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation”.

    Experts have warned that such campaigns could give momentum to accusations that the election is not legitimate and that this, in turn, could trigger post-election violence.

    As the results come in, America holds it breath that any potential transition of power will be more peaceful than four years ago.

    Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump takes first swing states of North Carolina and Georgia after voting passes peacefully – https://theconversation.com/trump-takes-first-swing-states-of-north-carolina-and-georgia-after-voting-passes-peacefully-242716

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election: Trump declares victory – ‘There’s never been anything like this’

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor

    This is a rolling guide to articles and audio published by The Conversation in the immediate run-up to and aftermath of the election, with some explainers about the process. This page is updated from the top, so older references are moved down the page.

    The United States has made its choice. At just before 8am GMT (3am Florida time) Donald Trump took to the stage at the West Palm Beach convention center and claimed victory for the Republican Party. His declaration came minutes after it was announced he was going to win in the key state of Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral college votes.

    He thanked a large crowd of his adoring supporters, saying: “This was a movement like nobody’s ever seen before, and frankly, this was, I believe, the greatest political movement of all time. There’s never been anything like this in this country, and maybe beyond.”

    It’s been a turbulent four months since outgoing president Joe Biden announced he was terminating his bid for a second term and the battlelines between the two candidates, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were drawn. Soon we will know who will lead the US for the next four years.

    From here, with the help of some of the sharpest analysts of US politics, we’ll keep you updated and informed as the situation develops.

    Dafydd Townley, teaching fellow in international security at University of Portsmouth, has written an overview of how the election went down, with turnout looking high and no major incidents of violence, despite what look like numerous bomb hoaxes with possible Russian origins.

    Turnout has been impressive and initial speculation is that Trump has surpassed his rural support from 2020 while Democrat Kamala Harris only matched the suburban numbers that Biden achieved four years ago. NBC exit polls also showed Trump had more support from voters under 30 than any Republican candidate since 2008.



    Read more:
    Trump takes first swing states after voting passes peacefully

    The US has moved to the right

    Natasha Lindstaedt says that academics and pundits got the polls badly wrong in 2024.

    The polls were right – he had a lot more strength [than we all thought]. We thought the polls were seriously underestimating Kamala Harris and that she was doing far better than they were predicting, when they said it was a knife edge. But it turns out they were underestimating Trump.

    The US has moved to the right. The abortion bill wasn’t overturned in Florida, Ted Cruz won by ten points in Texas, a state that we thought might be competitive. We thought with this Iowa poll that Harris might be more competitive with white voters. It’s been a great night for Trump and an absolute disaster for the Democrats.

    She said that many people following the campaign thought that women were going to turn out and that would make the difference. But in fact it didn’t.

    Trump gained a lot more than he had in 2020 – probably due to nostalgia of what his administration was like, looking at it through rose-coloured glasses, forgetting the chaos and all the upheaval he created himself. Now he’s going to inherit a great economy – and he’s going to take credit for it.

    Trump wins Pennsylvania, declares victory

    Donald Trump claimed victory in the 2024 presidential election. It followed hot on the heels of the networks announcing he had won the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Richard Hargy says the state has played an important part in the whole campaign, he says.

    It was in Butler, Pennsylvania, last July, where Trump survived an assassination attempt during a campaign rally after a gunman opened fire from a nearby rooftop.

    The Trump victory in Pennsylvania was greatly helped by the world’s richest man, Elon Musk’s intercession into the presidential election. He financed a multi-billion dollar door-knocking operation across the state and held events in support of Donald Trump.

    On Monday a Pennsylvania judge had ruled that a $1-million-a-day voter sweepstake organised by Musk was legal and could continue into Tuesday’s election.

    When will we know the result?

    To get an idea of the scale of the task of counting votes, take a look at the below map of the US colour-coded by poll closing times. How long the count could take is anyone’s guess at this stage. Each state has its own rules.

    Ahead of the polls closing Richard Hargy, an expert in US politics from Queen’s University Belfast, wrote a guide to the process, when the votes are counted and when we might start to see results.



    Read more:
    US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains

    Delays are baked into the process, such as Pennsylvania, which doesn’t allow votes cast before election day or ballots posted in to be counted until polls close, which was at 8pm (1am GMT).

    So we’ll just have to be patient. In the mean time, you can also read Hargy’s explainer on the “electoral college” system, which can mean that the candidate with the most votes may not win the presidency.



    Read more:
    US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    Early voting and what it might mean

    Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, believes that in a cliffhanger election, a clue to the outcome may be in the size of turnout. More than 80 million Americans voted early – around half of the total turnout in 2020 and around one-third of the eligible electorate.

    The 80 million figure takes on added significance with the recognition that it is not that distant from the 104 million who participated early in the “pandemic” election four years ago. And that 2020 ballot, with 158.4 million votes and almost 67% participation, was the largest turnout since 1900.

    Who does that favour? Probably Kamala Harris and Tim Walz. Trumpists will turn out for their man come hell or high water. The large question mark has been whether potential Harris voters would sit on their hands, whether from lack of enthusiasm or dissatisfaction on issues such as Israel’s open-ended war on Gaza.

    Any prediction in this election is a risk. But it might be worth setting a marker: if turnout matches or exceeds the record set in 2020, Kamala Harris could be on the way to the White House.

    Tense moment for the US

    During the campaign there have been two assassination attempts on former president Trump as well as arson attacks on ballot boxes and ballots damaged. In Arizona the Democratic party was forced to close one of its offices after it had been shot at three times.

    Dafydd Townley, a fellow in international security at Portsmouth University, believes that there could be a reluctance to accept the result and that this could result in further disturbances. He has written about how much violence there has been during this campaign.



    Read more:
    US election: officials are issued with panic buttons as attacks on ballot boxes continue

    Dafyyd Townley comments on post-election violence.

    How race has played into the campaign

    Rhianna Garrett, PhD researcher and global coordinator of the critical mixed race studies executive board at Loughborough University, says that Trump’s campaign has been “littered with attempts to weaponise” the multiracial heritage of his Democrat opponent Kamala Harris.

    Much of this has been a dog-whistle attempt to stir up his own base, partly with fairly blatant appeals to latent feelings of racism, but also as a tool to position Harris as deceiving and untrustworthy by apparently blurring and shifting her own background.

    In August, not long after Harris took over the Democrat ticket from Biden, Trump appeared at the National Association of Black Journalists conference when he wrongfully claimed that Harris was changing her identity, stating: “I didn’t know she was Black until a number of years ago when she happened to turn Black, and now she wants to be known as Black, So I don’t know. Is she Indian or is she Black?”.

    For her part, Harris’s campaign has also used her multiracial heritage to further their political agendas. On the White House website, she is described as “the first woman, the first Black American, and the first South Asian American” to hold a vice-presidential position, which has effectively attempted to position her as a winner. Harris herself has also foregrounded “race” on her campaign website. In attempt to attack Trump’s campaign, she strategically aims to promote Black and Latino men specifically, as well as women’s rights. These are key voter groups she has aimed to mobilise through identity politics.

    Trump and winning male voters

    Donald Trump widened his appeal to male voters in this election, with polling indicating that he was picking up more support from Black and Latino men, as well as more young men more widely.

    One reason for this may be that in 2024 young men are more conservative than any other group in the US. Another reason why gender has become a divisive issue is the overturning of Roe v Wade, the legal case that gave American women abortion rights.

    Read more on the gender divide in this article from Natasha Lindstaedt, a professor of government at Essex University.



    Read more:
    US election: why more men and fewer white women say they will vote for Trump

    A free speech campaign?

    Julie Posetti, professor of journalism at City St George’s, University of London, and global director of research at the International Center for Journalists, recently conducted a survey of more than 1,000 Americans on their attitudes to the press.

    Breaking down the results, they were able to build a picture of what people in the US think of targeting journalists for criticism and even abuse. You can read all about the study here.



    Read more:
    New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men

    When Trump speaks – his supporters hear him loud and clear

    Channel 4 is showing pictures of the Trump party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, where the Maga faithful are celebrating the news that it appears that Trump has retaken Georgia in his second swing-state victory. Their idol is expected to join them soon.

    While we wait for him to speak, here’s a fascinating piece on Trump’s rhetorical style by Loren D. Marsh of the Humboldt University of Berlin. His speeches have been ridiculed by his opponents during the campaign. They say he’s unfocused, rambling and at times nonsensical. He calls it the “weave” and says it’s genius. Marsh says that whatever you may think, it seems to work for his supporters.

    Far from being a liability or an indication he is incapable of staying on message, Trump’s “weave” may well be his intuitive rhetorical strategy, a way of taking control of the media narrative.



    Read more:
    Trump’s speeches are chaotic, rambling, and extremely effective. Aristotle can explain why

    – ref. US election: Trump declares victory – ‘There’s never been anything like this’ – https://theconversation.com/us-election-trump-declares-victory-theres-never-been-anything-like-this-241711

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump takes first swing states after voting passes peacefully

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth

    Donald Trump looked poised to take some key battleground states this morning as votes continue to be counted. The Republicans were also being predicted to take control of the Senate.

    North Carolina with its 16 electoral college votes was called for Trump in the early hours of the morning, and another key east coast state, Georgia and its 16 electoral college votes, was also predicted to have been gained by Trump. Trump won other major states, from Iowa to Texas, with a strong showing at the polls.

    As well as this, Republicans have taken back control of the Senate as they were forecast to, after Democrats lost their slender lead. If Trump is victorious, this will provide him with the congressional support he needs to get his appointees ratified and pass laws without obstruction.

    Turnout has been impressive and initial speculation is that Trump has surpassed his rural support from 2020 while Democrat Kamala Harris only matched the suburban numbers that Biden achieved four years ago. NBC exit polls also showed Trump had more support from voters under 30 than any Republican candidate since 2008.

    The BBC reported that early exit polls indicated that voters were most concerned with the state of the democracy (35%) with the economy coming a close second (31%).

    These concerns have led to a turnout that will be just below the 2020 figures, according to Professor Michael McDonald, of the University of Florida.

    In too-close-to-call battleground state Pennsylvania, it was reported that voters were queueing in their hundreds over an hour before the polls opened at 7am.

    In Michigan, another key state in the election, officials said that those voters who had voted early – both the absentee and in-person votes – numbered almost as many as the total votes for the 2020 election.

    Michigan’s Secretary of State, Jocelyn Benson, said that the state was “on pace to see another high turnout election with voters all across the state enthusiastic and engaged”. And much of it was done in a good atmosphere with election chairperson Jennifer Jenkins telling reporters that it was “good vibes all around”.

    Safety concerns

    Concerns about whether election day would pass peacefully have not kept voters away.

    As revealed in a memo obtained by the non-partisan group, Property of the People, the Department of Homeland Security had issued a warning in September that election infrastructure was “an attractive target for some domestic violent extremists” particularly those with “election-related grievances” who seek to disrupt the democratic process and election operations.

    In the nation’s capital, Washington DC, police arrested a man who was stopped during the screening process at the US Capitol visitor centre. Authorities stated that he smelled like gasoline and had a torch lighter, flare gun and papers he intended to deliver to Congress.

    Capitol Police Chief J. Thomas Manger, speaking at a press conference shortly after the incident, stated that “there is no indication right now that it had anything to do with the election”.

    The greatest threat to the smooth running of the election on polling day seemed not to come from domestic perpetrators but from foreign interference, particularly in the crucial swing state races.

    Several polling stations in Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin were the victims of hoax bomb threats that caused temporary closures of the sites. The threats were believed to be sent by emails that were traced back to Russian email domains.

    In Navajo County in Arizona, four polling stations were the target of bomb threats. Arizona Secretary of State Adrian Fontes told reporters that election officials in the state had “no reason to believe that any of our voters or any of our polling places are in any sort of jeopardy.”

    “We also have reason to believe, although I won’t get into specifics, that this comes from one of our foreign enemies, namely Russia,” he continued.

    In Pennsylvania, Governor Josh Shapiro announced at a press conference that there had been multiple bomb threats at polling stations and municipal centres across the state.

    Shapiro, who was at one time thought of as a potential running mate for Harris, revealed that “state and local law enforcement – along with the FBI – are investigating these threats and thus far, there is no credible threat to the public”.

    This came after reports emerged of at least ten polling locations in Philadelphia and in surrounding areas were sent a bomb threat via email at 6pm local time.

    Republican Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger accused Russia of being the cause of the threats aimed at polling locations in the southern state. “They don’t want us to have a smooth, fair and accurate election, and if they can get us to fight among ourselves, they can count that as a victory,” he told reporters.

    The FBI stated that it was aware of the threats and that many appeared “to originate from Russian email domains”. The Russian embassy in Washington denied the threats.

    Last Thursday, Georgia was also the subject of what the US intelligence community called a disinformation campaign designed to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election result through an online video that “depicted individuals claiming to be from Haiti and voting illegally in multiple counties in Georgia”.

    Researchers at Clemson University in South Carolina identified the work as being that of Russian disinformation group Storm-1516. Darren Linvill of Clemson University, stated that Russian group had “turned their focus squarely on the US election.”

    And the integrity of this election took a further hit when Republican candidate Donald Trump made unfounded accusations on social media platform Truth Social of election fraud in Philadelphia, a must-win state for the former president.

    Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner said through a spokesperson that “the only talk about massive cheating has come from one of the candidates, Donald J. Trump. There is no factual basis whatsoever within law enforcement to support this wild allegation”.

    Experts have warned that such campaigns could give momentum to accusations that the election is not legitimate and that this, in turn, could trigger post-election violence.

    As the results come in, America holds it breath that any potential transition of power will be more peaceful than four years ago.

    Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump takes first swing states after voting passes peacefully – https://theconversation.com/trump-takes-first-swing-states-after-voting-passes-peacefully-242716

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mosquito season in southern Africa: tonic water and vitamins won’t protect you but knowing where the hotspots are will

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Shüné Oliver, Medical scientist, National Institute for Communicable Diseases

    While the emergence of colourful butterflies is a welcome sign of summer, the constant buzzing of mosquitoes is an annoying part of the season.

    Mosquitoes are more than just pests. They are the world’s most dangerous animal. Their presence signals the start of the malaria season in southern Africa.

    It is for this reason that the Southern African Development Community recognises the first week of November as SADC Malaria Week, with 6 November as SADC Malaria Day.

    During this week the dangers of malaria are highlighted. As South Africa edges closer towards malaria elimination, this has become more important as many South Africans are unaware of the malaria risk within the country’s borders.



    Read more:
    The seven steps South Africa is taking to get it closer to eliminating malaria

    Know your enemy

    Malaria is usually spread through a bite of an infected female Anopheles mosquito. In rare cases, malaria can spread through blood transfusions, organ transplants or sharing contaminated needles.

    There is also the possibility that mothers can pass on the disease to their babies while pregnant or during delivery.

    Mosquitoes that spread malaria are usually only active between dusk and dawn. Some mosquitoes, particularly the large black and white Aedes mosquitoes,
    are active during the day. These mosquitoes spread diseases like yellow fever and Zika.

    Although malaria-spreading mosquitoes are active at night, they are not the mosquitoes that make the annoying buzzing sound that prevents you from getting a peaceful night’s sleep.

    Instead, malaria mosquitoes are near-silent, often referred to as silent killers. Frequently, you only realise you have been bitten when it is too late.

    Most malaria vectors tend to bite and rest outdoors. This means that you have to take extra care when outdoors.

    Know your enemy’s whereabouts

    Malaria mosquitoes require specific environmental conditions to breed and survive.

    They are found in low-lying tropical areas in most southern African countries, with the exception of Lesotho and the Seychelles. Angola, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe have regions of high malaria risk.

    In South Africa, malaria is restricted to the low-lying border regions of northern KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Limpopo provinces.

    Before visiting any of these areas, familiarise yourself with the malaria risk map for South Africa and take the appropriate precautions.

    In the southern hemisphere, the malaria risk is particularly high over the December holidays. This is due to the warm, wet weather conditions that favour mosquito growth.

    Over the past few years, the non-endemic South African province of Gauteng has reported a high number of
    cases. This can happen in any province: there have been incidents in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape, as well as the North-West.

    Most of these cases are imported from high-risk regions within
    and outside South Africa.

    A few rare cases are the result of odyssean malaria (also known as taxi or airport malaria).

    This happens throughout Africa. It is largely associated with migration. This happens when one or more malaria-carrying mosquitoes are accidentally transported from their natural home. They can then randomly infect people outside the malaria-risk area.

    When you have an unexplained fever in summer, think malaria. This is true even if you have not travelled to a malaria-risk area.

    It is especially important if you stayed near a major transport route or transport hub. These include places such as taxi ranks or bus depots.

    Know your enemy’s gameplan

    Malaria is preventable and treatable. The odds of a complete recovery are very high if a malaria infection is detected early. This is aided by prompt treatment with effective antimalarial medication.

    Symptoms of the milder version of malaria (uncomplicated malaria) are non-specific. This can include fever, headaches, sluggishness, nausea, and muscular/joint pains.

    Loss of consciousness, convulsions, jaundice and kidney failure are associated with the more severe, life threatening form of malaria.



    Read more:
    We’re a step closer to figuring out why mosquitoes bite some people and not others

    Keep yourself safe from the enemy

    The easiest way to prevent yourself from getting malaria is to avoid being bitten by an infected mosquito.

    If outdoors during the evening, wear long-sleeved shirts, trousers and socks, and use repellents that contain at least 30% of the insect repellent DEET.

    Doors and windows should be screened. Where possible, sleep under a bednet or in an air-conditioned room.

    In addition to these non-pharmaceutical measures, you can protect yourself by taking anti-malarial medications which you can get from a pharmacy or primary healthcare clinic.

    Discuss your anti-malarial options with a healthcare professional.

    Medication that prevents malaria does not mask the symptoms of the disease.

    The recommended treatment in South Africa, artemether-lumefantrine (Coartem), is highly effective. This is the most widely used malaria treatment across Africa.

    Know the myths about the enemy

    You cannot get malaria from drinking contaminated water or eating rotten fruit.

    There is limited evidence that vitamin-enriched products or home remedies containing natural products like citronella offer any protection against malaria.

    In addition, tonic water contains a very low concentration of antimalarial ingredients. It is therefore not possible for one person to drink sufficient quantities to protect against malaria.

    Crucially, one malaria infection will not keep you safe from future infections. You can get malaria more than once.

    Finally, always be aware – although the malaria risk is higher in summer, you can also get the disease in the dry season. You could also potentially be infected in any province due to an infected travelling mosquito.

    So if you have an unexplained fever, think malaria!

    Shüné Oliver receives funding from the National Research Foundation of South Africa, South African Medical Research Council and Female Academic Leadership Fellowship. She is affiliated with the National Institute for Communicable Diseases and the Wits Research Institute for Malaria.

    Jaishree Raman receives funding from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, CHAI, the Global Fund, the National Institute for Communicable Disease, the National Research Foundation, the South African Medical Research Council, and the Research Trust. She is affiliated with the Wits Research Institute for Malaria and the University of Pretoria’s Institute for Sustainable Malaria Control.

    – ref. Mosquito season in southern Africa: tonic water and vitamins won’t protect you but knowing where the hotspots are will – https://theconversation.com/mosquito-season-in-southern-africa-tonic-water-and-vitamins-wont-protect-you-but-knowing-where-the-hotspots-are-will-242620

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Richard Hargy, Visiting Research Fellow in International Studies, Queen’s University Belfast

    The electoral votes in swing states are likely to edge one candidate over the line. Tomas Ragina/Shutterstock

    On November 5, millions of Americans will cast their votes for president, with the vast majority deciding between Democrat Kamala Harris or Republican Donald Trump. This historic election, however, is not determined by a singular national poll, but rather a state-by-state contest. Many people outside the US, and some inside, do not understand how this complicated system works.

    Here are five things to know about the electoral college system:

    1. It’s not one electoral contest, but 50 separate races

    The founding fathers opted against a national popular vote where the winning candidate just has to gain a majority of votes to claim victory. They decided instead to establish an electoral college under Article II of the US Constitution.

    Under this system, voters in every US state and the District of Columbia decide the outcome of a winner-takes-all contest for their state’s electoral votes. Each state is allocated a set number of electoral votes, in line with the size of its population. For example, Texas, with a population of over 29 million, has 50 electoral votes. North Dakota, on the other hand, has a population of under 800,000 and is apportioned three.

    By securing a majority of the vote in a state, a candidate collects its allotted electoral college votes. There are 538 in total, with the winner needing at least 270 to secure the presidency (with their running-mate becoming vice-president).

    Maine and Nebraska are the only two exceptions to the winner-takes-all approach. These states also use their congressional districts to allocate some electoral college votes: two go to each state’s overall popular vote winner, while one goes to the popular vote winner in each congressional district (two districts in Maine, three in Nebraska).

    So, when Americans mark their ballot with their choice for president, this vote is technically not awarded automatically to the candidate. Rather, it goes to the individual state’s electors. These people convene across all 50 states once the election is complete, then formally send their state’s electoral votes to the US Congress. The electors are usually state election officials or prominent party members.

    Brown University professor of political science Wendy Schiller explained the choice of an electoral college system more than 200 years ago was rooted in a distrust of citizens to make a reasoned choice: “The origins of the electoral college were not supposed to reflect voter opinion at all – it was to be a gate against making a bad choice. It was an elite bulwark against popular opinion.”

    2. It can allow for unpredictable and unruly outcomes

    By its very nature, the electoral college can result in two unusual, but not improbable, scenarios. First, a candidate can win the electoral college while losing the popular vote and still become president – as happened most recently in 2000 with George W. Bush and in 2016 with Trump.

    Secondly, the system allows for a situation were neither candidate wins a majority of electoral votes. If there is a 269-269 tie, a “contingent election” is held under the 12th Amendment. In this case, members of the new House of Representatives, sworn in on January 3 2025, would choose the next president. They do not vote based on individual preference. Instead, every state delegation gets one vote, with a simple majority of 26 state delegation votes needed to decide who becomes president. This has happened only twice in presidential elections, in 1801 and 1825. The House must continue voting until a president is elected.

    A history of the electoral college system.

    3. In 2020, Trump’s supporters sought to challenge the electoral college results

    State legislators can object to their state’s general election outcome during the congressional certification. This happened in 2020 when a group of Republicans objected to results in Pennsylvania and Arizona – both won by Democrat Joe Biden. After supporters of Trump stormed the Capitol building in January 2021, protesting the official authorisation of votes, Congress updated the 1800s-era Electoral Count Act to make it harder to challenge the electoral college result.

    Following the 2020 election, certain electors in several swing states attempted to falsely declare Trump the winner. These included high-profile Republicans in Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and Wisconsin. Trump’s campaign lawyer, Kenneth Chesebro, pleaded guilty in Georgia to his role in subverting the election.

    There are fears of a potential repeat of this scenario in 2024, should Trump lose again. Documentation returned to state election officials has revealed that over a dozen of these individuals are returning as potential electors this year.

    4. Criticism includes national security concerns and disinformation

    Some call the electorial college system undemocratic. Others point to the “faithless elector” issue, whereby the electors within a state cast their vote against the preference of their state’s popular vote.

    Small vote margins often secure all the votes in key swing states. For example, in 2016, Trump won Michigan by just 13,080 votes (0.3%), Wisconsin by 27,257 votes (1.0%), and Pennsylvania by 68,236 votes (1.2%). This allocated Trump 46 electoral votes as well as victory in the presidential election.

    This has led Brookings Institution fellows Elaine Kamarck and Darrell M. West to conclude that “false news purveyors don’t have to persuade 99% of American voters to be influential, but simply a tiny amount in [certain states] … A shift of 1% of the vote or less based on false narratives would have altered the outcome.”

    Harvard University professor of government Ryan Enos told me that foreign adversaries with an interest in the outcome of the US election are “aware of how decentralised the system is, and how chaos can be sowed by putting pressure on particular states”.

    5. Some people want to abolish it

    The process remains highly contentious and can result in a more fractious political climate. Consequently, there many who want to abolish it. West, a senior fellow of governance studies at Brookings, said the US should get rid of the electoral college. He called it a relic that was established “as an elite-based mechanism to basically choose the president because [America’s founding fathers] did not trust the general public”.

    However, Barnard College professor of political science Sheri Berman had a different view, saying that if you believe different states should have some guaranteed level of representation regardless of their population, then designing a system that gives this to them could be viewed as legitimate.

    Ultimately, despite its unusual elements, Christine Stenglein, a research analyst at Brookings, believes “the electoral college is part of the US constitution, and therefore not likely to change any time soon”.

    Richard Hargy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US election: how does the electoral college voting system work? – https://theconversation.com/us-election-how-does-the-electoral-college-voting-system-work-242283

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Midas Man: Brian Epstein biopic captures the complexity that made the Beatles manager so brilliant

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Glenn Fosbraey, Associate Dean of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Winchester

    A few minutes after I took my seat at an advanced screening of Amazon Prime’s Brian Epstein biopic, Midas Man, I found myself engaged in Beatles chat with the chap next to me. I wasn’t surprised to find a fellow Fab Four fanatic at such an event. But I was surprised when I realised I was speaking with the legendary presenter Paul Gambaccini, a man who, I was soon to discover, met not only John, Paul, George and Ringo, but also original drummer Pete Best and bassist Stuart Sutcliffe’s sister. Or “five and a half Beatles”, as he put it.

    As the lights went down and we readied ourselves, Gambaccini whispered that he hoped this wasn’t going to be “another Beatles film with no Beatles music in it”. The subject of soundtracks in Beatles biopics has always been an elephant in the room among fans, and Midas Man, like Backbeat (1994), In His Life: The John Lennon Story (2000), Lennon Naked (2010) and many others before it, did indeed lack any Lennon and McCartney (or Harrison) originals.

    But, given that it cost the 2019 film Yesterday US$10 million (£7.7 million) to acquire the rights to use the Beatles’ music (40% of the entire budget), this shouldn’t really come as a surprise. And there aren’t any crafty ways round it, either. This much we know from the fate of 1979’s Birth of The Beatles which has been prevented from reissue due to its unauthorised use of songs.

    Midas Man tells the story of the legendary Beatles manager, Brian Epstein. The film follows Epstein, played by Jacob Fortune-Lloyd, from his days as the unfulfilled manager of a furniture and musical instrument shop to making good on his promise that his unknown and unsigned band, The Beatles, would one day be “bigger than Elvis”.

    Some reviews have taken issue at how the film shows Epstein one minute suavely cajoling American TV host Ed Sullivan, and the next falling to pieces after the death of his father. But such contradictions of character were exactly what made Epstein who he was – a man Beatles biographer Craig Brown has described as alternatively lonely, businesslike, scrupulous, obsessive, shrewd, awkward and pernickety.

    For me, it’s Epstein’s complexity that makes him so endearing, both in real life and in Midas Man. Fortune-Lloyd expertly and realistically portrays him as confident in his abilities, but also on the cusp of being consumed by self-doubt at any moment. He also carries off the magnetic charm that led Epstein on his scarcely believable journey from selling pianos in his family shop to one of the most powerful people in the entertainment industry within the space of a few years.

    The trailer for Midas Man.

    In what is ultimately a tragic story of a troubled life, it’s unsurprising that there are plenty of tearjerker moments. But screenwriters Brigit Grant and Jonathan Wakeham avoid the temptation to overdo the pathos, choosing subtlety over the sledgehammer.

    A combination of this and Fortune-Lloyd’s understated acting lead to several poignant moments in the film. Epstein yearns to be a part of the band’s world, but is kept on the sidelines due to his position of authority, (perceived) difference in class and, most importantly, his own social awkwardness.

    Being Brian

    The film’s sets are a highlight throughout, from 1960s Liverpool’s unique blend of vibrancy and poverty to the glitz and glamour of New York. The North End Music Store (NEMs) where Epstein worked and which became his management company, thrums with the energy and anticipation of the tectonic shift in culture that’s just around the corner. And I’ve scarcely experienced a more immersive recreation of The Beatles’s lunchtime performances at The Cavern.

    Alongside Fortune-Lloyd’s nuanced performance, there were several other standouts. Leo Harvey-Elledge provides much of the humour as George Harrison, Rosie Day has a whale of a time as an effervescent Cilla Black, and the consistently excellent Eddie Marsan and Emily Watson are perfectly cast (although somewhat underused) as Epstein’s parents.

    Good as the overall casting is, however, it’s hard to see Fortune-Lloyd’s Epstein as only six years senior to Jonah Lees’s John Lennon. As versatile as the former is, he looks significantly older than Epstein’s 27 years – the age he was when he first saw The Beatles perform at The Cavern in 1961.

    This may seem like a minor point, but it affects the dynamic between him and the band, which, combined with the significant height difference between Fortune Lloyd (6ft 2) and Lees (5ft 8) gives a sense of authority that was more representative of The Beatles’ producer, George Martin.

    The decision to create a fictionalised love interest in John “Tex” Ellington (Ed Speleers) is also odd. It serves only to suggest that Epstein’s life wasn’t interesting and dramatic enough without fabrication. Which is far from the truth.

    Invented characters aside, there’s nothing in Midas Man that die-hard Beatles fans didn’t already know about Epstein. But given that he and The Beatles are part of what’s been called “the greatest story ever told”, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Glenn Fosbraey does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Midas Man: Brian Epstein biopic captures the complexity that made the Beatles manager so brilliant – https://theconversation.com/midas-man-brian-epstein-biopic-captures-the-complexity-that-made-the-beatles-manager-so-brilliant-242633

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Scents of the Middle Ages and emo nostalgia – what you should read, watch and do this week

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anna Walker, Senior Arts + Culture Editor

    I’ve always been a history nerd, but it wasn’t until I started working at The Conversation that I really caught the medieval bug. Inspired by our academic experts, I’ve read books, trawled online archives, and when I worked on an article about the Book of Kells earlier this year, I had to travel to Dublin to see it for myself.

    And so it is that this week I found myself booking tickets to London to visit Medieval Women: In Their Own Words at the British Library, an exhibition our reviewer, expert in medieval women’s writing Diane Watt, described as “unmissable”.

    I’m particularly excited to see the way that some of the earliest works by women to have been written in English are brought to life in a scent installation. Julian of Norwich’s satanic torments, for example, are conjured up by the stink of sulphur, while Margery Kempe’s angels are evoked by notes of honey, strawberry and caramel.



    Read more:
    Medieval Women: In Their Own Words at the British Library is unmissable

    Dystopian fiction and unsettling realities

    There’s been a lot of noise about Dahomey, the latest documentary film from award-winning French director Mati Diop since it picked up the coveted Golden Bear, the top prize at this year’s Berlin International Film Festival. The film follows the restitution of 26 items that were looted by French troops during an invasion and subsequent colonial occupation of the kingdom of Dahomey, now the present-day Republic of Benin, in November 1892.

    What makes the film particularly unique is Diop’s decision to give a literal voice to the artefacts in question. Viewers follow “object 26”, a statue of King Ghezo who ruled Dahomey from 1797 until 1818, as he narrates his journey from a storage unit in a French museum, back to his homeland. It gave our reviewer, curator of living cultures at Manchester Museum Njabulo Chipangura, much to reflect on.



    Read more:
    Dahomey: timely repatriation documentary gives a literal voice to Benin’s stolen objects

    The trailer for Dahomey.

    For my money, Ali Smith is one of the greatest living British authors. My first encounter with her work was the stunning 2014 book How to Be Both, which applied the fresco technique of visual arts to the novel. Weaving together the stories of a renaissance artist and a 16-year-old girl in contemporary Cambridge, the order in which you read the story depended on which copy you picked up.

    With her latest book, Gliff, Smith continues to play with form. It tells the story of two children, Briar and Rose, as they navigate a post-apocalyptic Britain. Gliff is the first of a planned pair of novels, with the second to be called Glyph. Our reviewer found the novel’s combination of dystopian nightmare and fairy tale enchantment at once accessible and engaging, complex and subtle.



    Read more:
    Ali Smith’s new novel Gliff is a dystopian nightmare with flashes of fairytale enchantment

    Emo nostalgia

    There’s no more appropriate time to visit an exhibition on the work of Tim Burton than Halloween weekend. That is, unless you’re one of those people that insist The Nightmare Before Christmas is actually a Christmas film. Newly opened at the Design Museum, The World of Tim Burton is an exploration of the director’s design practice, and traces the complex path from his initial sketches to their realisation on screen.

    Our reviewer, expert in the gothic Catherine Spooner, found much to enjoy. She described the work on show as “a riot of colour and fizzing line”, though it was the personal items she found most thrilling – teen fan art, scribbles on table napkins and university lecture notes.



    Read more:
    Is Tim Burton an outsider auteur or a global megastar? The Design Museum thinks it has the answer

    As a teenager, I spent hours carefully curating my Myspace page. In my “profile photo” I wore black skinny jeans and doodled-on Converse. My “profile song” was almost always something by My Chemical Romance. Each generation has their defining subculture and for mine, young millennials, that subculture was emo (short for “emotional hardcore”).

    In a move that seems designed to make me feel ancient, emo is now the subject of a nostalgic exhibition at London’s Barbican Music Library. The show features much of the technology that emo teens used to build a sense of community, from those Myspace profiles to flip phones and iPod shuffles. While many of these technologies are long gone, the exhibition argues that emo remains alive and kicking.



    Read more:
    Medieval Women: In Their Own Words at the British Library is unmissable


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    – ref. Scents of the Middle Ages and emo nostalgia – what you should read, watch and do this week – https://theconversation.com/scents-of-the-middle-ages-and-emo-nostalgia-what-you-should-read-watch-and-do-this-week-242630

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Social media and generative AI can have a large climate impact – here’s how to reduce yours

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Domenico Vicinanza, Associate Professor of Intelligent Systems and Data Science, Anglia Ruskin University

    CREATIVE WONDER / shutterstock

    On a train or bus, or just standing in a queue, the most common sight these days is the muted glow of a screen, and the flickering thumbs of people lost in the endless scroll on their smartphones.

    Across the world, about 62% of people are active social media users. In some countries, that figure is over 90%. That adds up to a lot of usage: the average UK adult spends 3 hours and 41 minutes online each day, which translates to around 56 days a year, almost two whole months.

    Every time we read an article, see an advertisement, watch a photo or video, that content needs to be transferred from the social media platform’s servers to our device. The larger the file, the more data needs to be transferred. And high-resolution images or long videos involve lots of data.

    That data is distributed across many “server farms” (typically housed in a large warehouse with thousands of computers) around the world. If you load a video from Youtube you don’t connect to a single “Youtube data HQ” somewhere in California, but will instead gather data from many different servers often in different countries or continents.

    Moving data across the internet requires energy, sending signals through various electronic devices, including routers, servers, and our own mobile phone or laptop. Each of these devices consumes energy to function, while servers need to be kept cool. And this energy is often generated from fossil fuels.

    Low-energy LinkedIn tops the charts.
    Greenspector, CC BY-SA

    Tiktok is the least eco-friendly of the social media platforms, according to a study of internet users in France run by Greenspector in 2021 and then updated in 2023.

    Simply scrolling through the app exchanges a lot of data as Tiktok is constantly running videos, including many preloaded in the background that you may never even see.

    At the end side of the spectrum is LinkedIn. As a text-based platform, with fewer photos and videos, scrolling through LinkedIn uses much less data.

    Generative AI is energy-hungry

    Social media is of course not the only offender. Generative AI, with its ability to create text, images, music and even videos, is completely reshaping lots of creative processes. But though it is appealing, and sometimes a necessity, it comes with an environmental price tag.

    Unsurprisingly, the more powerful the AI, the more energy it consumes. Unlike when you stream video or load a large web page, with generative AI most energy is used at their end, while processing your query. If you ask ChatGPT to write you a novel, the process of writing involves lots of calculations, even if the resulting text itself doesn’t use much data.

    Your request is being processed…
    Caureem / shutterstock

    All this of course raises critical questions about the sustainability of generative AI and about our own carbon footprints. The AI companies themselves are reluctant to tell us exactly how much energy they use, but they apparently can’t stop their own chatbots having a stab. I asked ChatGPT-4 “how much energy was used to process this query?” and it said “0.002 to 0.02 kWh”, which it said “would be similar to keeping a 60-watt bulb on for about 2 minutes”.

    This roughly matches numbers offered by independent analysis and is tens of times more energy than required for a Google search. With millions of queries per day to ChatGPT alone, it all adds up to a huge amount of additional energy use. As generative AI continues to evolve, the demand for energy will only increase.

    What you can do

    While the environmental impact of these technologies raises valid concerns, it’s also essential to recognise their benefits. To take one example, AI-assisted tools like text-to-speech, voice recognition and auto-captioning have already made society more inclusive particularly for disabled or neurodiverse people. I don’t want to suggest we scrap social media or reject generative AI entirely.

    But there are things we can do to reduce the carbon footprint of our internet use, involving a combination of individual actions and systemic changes. Here are some strategies we can all adopt:

    First, limit the screen time. This is the most obvious one. Reducing the amount of time spent on social media can directly decrease energy consumption.

    Second, use energy-saving settings on your devices, such as lowering screen brightness, using a dark background, and enabling power-saving modes.

    Third, consider choosing less energy-demanding social media, using environmental ranking information to inform the decision. That means more text, and less video and generative AI.

    Fourth, whenever possible, use wifi over 4G or 5G mobile data: wifi generally consumes less energy.

    So, next time we find ourselves scrolling endless sequences of pictures and videos, our face lit by the blue glow of our screens, let’s just stop for a second and start implementing those simple strategies, so we can enjoy the benefits of being connected, while minimising the impact on our planet resources. Ultimately, the choice is ours.

    Domenico Vicinanza does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Social media and generative AI can have a large climate impact – here’s how to reduce yours – https://theconversation.com/social-media-and-generative-ai-can-have-a-large-climate-impact-heres-how-to-reduce-yours-240661

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Scott Moe won in Saskatchewan promising economic prosperity, but does that truly help citizens?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Iryna Khovrenkov, Associate Professor, Johnson Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Regina

    After winning the recent provincial election, the Saskatchewan Party’s Scott Moe promised a “strong economy, bright future.”

    But does a strong economy necessarily guarantee a bright future?

    Between 1998 and 2018, Saskatchewan’s gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 45 per cent, making it the fourth largest in Canada.

    Even after the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, Saskatchewan led the nation in economic growth, registering a hike of six per cent.

    Over the same 20 years, however, Saskatchewan’s well-being increased by only 13 per cent, according to the Saskatchewan Index of Wellbeing.

    This lag in well-being has only amplified the struggles of the province’s citizens in terms of drug use, youth mental health, homelessness and hate crimes.

    Evidently, and despite its impressive magnitude, Saskatchewan’s economic growth alone does not fully reflect the province’s progress in terms of citizen well-being.

    What is well-being?

    Well-being is a multi-dimensional concept that goes beyond the level or rate of growth of GDP and can illuminate ongoing major policy challenges. GDP, on the other hand, is one-dimensional, developed prior to the Second World War and well before today’s significant policy concerns.

    As defined by the Saskatchewan Index of Wellbeing, it’s achieved when people are physically, emotionally and spiritually healthy; economically secure; have a strong sense of identity, belonging and place; and have the confidence and capacity to engage as citizens.

    Well-being encompasses many aspects that make our lives good — happiness and wellness at the personal level, strong social capital and belonging at the community level. These aspects can then form a strong foundation to tackle larger issues at the societal level such as social justice and environmental sustainability.

    International well-being initiatives

    Many countries, including Canada with its Canadian Index of Wellbeing, have not only developed well-being frameworks but many now routinely collect and publish well-being indicators.

    A handful of jurisdictions — like France, Italy and Sweden — have also begun including quality-of-life measures as benchmarks of their progress.

    New Zealand even formally budgets for well-being and released its first Wellbeing Budget in 2019.

    Regardless of geography or political structure, one common motivation for developing these well-being frameworks is a recognition that economic metrics such as GDP are insufficient to measure a country’s human and environmental progress.



    Read more:
    Australia’s wellbeing budget: what we can – and can’t – learn from NZ

    A well-being approach to policy

    For an effective path forward, citizen well-being should be a guiding principle for government leaders. Community Initiatives Fund and Heritage Saskatchewan, joint forces behind the Saskatchewan Index of Wellbeing, have long called on decision-makers to incorporate well-being into policy.

    The federal government has recently introduced the Quality-of-Life Framework as its first step towards integrating well-being into policymaking. But are these efforts reaching local governments, which carry a regulatory duty of fostering citizen well-being?

    I partnered with the Community Initiatives Fund and Heritage Saskatchewan to survey more than 25 per cent of rural and urban municipalities in Saskatchewan on what’s facilitated or hindered the adoption of well-being into policy in their communities.

    We learned that only 17 per cent of our participating municipalities adopted a well-being approach in their official community plans, although 55 per cent of them consider community well-being elements when developing policies and budgets.

    Additionally, 46 per cent are interested in adopting a well-being approach but have cited lack of financial and human resources, time, community and team support as key challenges in shifting to a well-being approach.

    Finally, we learned that arts, culture and sports amenities were identified as a pressing community need by 36 per cent of our respondents, compared to only six per cent referencing economic sustainability and growth.

    Our findings also support existing evidence that rural communities become stronger when they value well-being more than economic growth.

    The five elements of a well-being economy. (ICLEI Europe YouTube Channel)

    Municipal action required

    As the government level closest to the people, municipalities matter. Services provided by local authorities define citizens’ well-being and their quality of life. Also, local efforts have the potential to inspire province-wide change.

    With urban municipalities in Saskatchewan gearing up for their own elections on Nov. 13, it’s a good time to consider prioritizing community well-being.

    In the words of Jacinda Ardern, the former prime minister of New Zealand: “Growth alone does not lead to a great country …. so it’s time to focus on those things that do.”

    For real change to occur, well-being should lie at the heart of policymaking.

    The research project about well-being in municipal policy is a product of a partnership between Iryna Khovrenkov at the University of Regina, Tracey Mann at Community Initiatives Fund and Ingrid Cazakoff at Heritage Saskatchewan. The financial support of Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council Partnership Engage Grant number 892-2021-3028 is gratefully acknowledged.

    – ref. Scott Moe won in Saskatchewan promising economic prosperity, but does that truly help citizens? – https://theconversation.com/scott-moe-won-in-saskatchewan-promising-economic-prosperity-but-does-that-truly-help-citizens-242574

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Julie Posetti, Global Director of Research, International Center for Journalists (ICFJ) and Professor of Journalism, City St George’s, University of London

    Press freedom is a pillar of American democracy. But political attacks on US-based journalists and news organisations pose an unprecedented threat to their safety and the integrity of information.

    Less than 48 hours before election day, Donald Trump told a rally of his supporters that he wouldn’t mind if someone shot the journalists in front of him.

    “I have this piece of glass here, but all we have really over here is the fake news. And to get me, somebody would have to shoot through the fake news. And I don’t mind that so much,” he said.

    A new survey from the International Center for Journalists (ICFJ) highlights a disturbing tolerance for political bullying of the press in the land of the First Amendment. The findings show that this is especially true among white, male, Republican voters.

    We commissioned this nationally representative survey of 1,020 US adults, which was fielded between June 24 and July 5 2024, to assess Americans’ attitudes to the press ahead of the election. We are publishing the results here for the first time.

    More than one-quarter (27%) of the Americans we polled said they had often seen or heard a journalist being threatened, harassed or abused online. And more than one-third (34%) said they thought it was appropriate for senior politicians and government officials to criticise journalists and news organisations.

    Tolerance for attacks on the press appears as politically polarised as American society. Nearly half (47%) of the Republicans surveyed approved of senior politicians critiquing the press, compared to less than one-quarter (22%) of Democrats.

    Our analysis also revealed divisions according to gender and ethnicity. While 37% of white-identifying respondents thought it was appropriate for political leaders to target journalists and news organisations, only 27% of people of colour did. There was also a nine-point difference along gender lines, with 39% of men approving of this conduct, compared to 30% of women.

    It appears intolerance towards the press has a face – a predominantly white, male and Republican-voting face.

    Press freedom fears

    This election campaign, Trump has repeated his blatantly false claim that journalists are “enemies of the people”. He has suggested that reporters who cross him should be jailed, and signalled that he would like to revoke broadcast licences of networks.

    Relevant, too, is the enabling environment for viral attacks on journalists created by unregulated social media companies which represent a clear threat to press freedom and the safety of journalists. Previous research produced by ICFJ for Unesco concluded that there was a causal relationship between online violence towards women journalists and physical attacks.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    While political actors may be the perpetrators of abuse targeting journalists, social media companies have facilitated their viral spread, heightening the risk to journalists.

    We’ve seen a potent example of this in the current campaign, when Haitian Times editor Macollvie J. Neel was “swatted” – meaning police were dispatched to her home after a fraudulent report of a murder at the address – during an episode of severely racist online violence.

    The trigger? Her reporting on Trump and JD Vance amplifying false claims that Haitian immigrants were eating their neighbours’ pets.

    Trajectory of Trump attacks

    Since the 2016 election, Trump has repeatedly discredited independent reporting on his campaign. He has weaponised the term “fake news” and accused the media of “rigging” elections.

    “The election is being rigged by corrupt media pushing completely false allegations and outright lies in an effort to elect [Hillary Clinton] president,” he said in 2016. With hindsight, such accusations foreshadowed his false claims of election fraud in 2020, and similar preemptive claims in 2024.

    His increasingly virulent attacks on journalists and news organisations are amplified by his supporters online and far-right media. Trump has effectively licensed attacks on American journalists through anti-press rhetoric and undermined respect for press freedom.

    In 2019, the Committee to Protect Journalists found that more than 11% of 5,400 tweets posted by Trump between the date of his 2016 candidacy and January 2019 “…insulted or criticised journalists and outlets, or condemned and denigrated the news media as a whole”.

    After being temporarily deplatformed from Twitter for breaching community standards, Trump launched Truth Social, where he continues to abuse his critics uninterrupted. But he recently rejoined the platform (now X), and held a series of campaign events with X owner and Trump backer Elon Musk.

    The failed insurrection on January 6 2021 rammed home the scale of the escalating threats facing American journalists. During the riots at the Capitol, at least 18 journalists were assaulted and reporting equipment valued at tens of thousands of dollars was destroyed.

    This election cycle, Reporters Without Borders logged 108 instances of Trump insulting, attacking or threatening the news media in public speeches or offline remarks over an eight-week period ending on October 24.

    Meanwhile, the Freedom of the Press Foundation has recorded 75 assaults on journalists since January 1 this year. That’s a 70% increase on the number of assaults captured by their press freedom tracker in 2023.

    A recent survey of hundreds of journalists undertaking safety training provided by the International Women’s Media Foundation found that 36% of respondents reported being threatened with or experiencing physical violence. One-third reported exposure to digital violence, and 28% reported legal threats or action against them.

    US journalists involved in ongoing ICFJ research have told us that they have felt particularly at risk covering Trump rallies and reporting on the election from communities hostile towards the press. Some are wearing protective flak jackets to cover domestic politics. Others have removed labels identifying their outlets from their reporting equipment to reduce the risk of being physically attacked.

    And yet, our survey reveals a distinct lack of public concern about the First Amendment implications of political leaders threatening, harassing, or abusing journalists. Nearly one-quarter (23%) of Americans surveyed did not regard political attacks on journalists or news organisations as a threat to press freedom. Among them, 38% identified as Republicans compared to just 9%* as Democrats.

    The anti-press playbook

    Trump’s anti-press playbook appeals to a global audience of authoritarians. Other political strongmen, from Brazil to Hungary and the Philippines, have adopted similar tactics of deploying disinformation to smear and threaten journalists and news outlets.

    Such an approach imperils journalists while undercutting trust in facts and critical independent journalism.

    History shows that fascism thrives when journalists can not safely and freely do the work of holding governments and political leaders to account. As our research findings show, the consequences are a society accepting lies and fiction as facts while turning a blind eye to attacks on the press.

    *The people identifying as Democrats in this sub-group are too few to make this a reliable representative estimate.

    Note: Nabeelah Shabbir (ICFJ Deputy Director of Research) and Kaylee Williams (ICFJ Research Associate) also contributed to this article and the research underpinning it. The survey was conducted by Langer Research Associates in English and Spanish. ICFJ researchers co-developed the survey and conducted the analysis.

    Julie Posetti receives research funding via ICFJ from the Scripps Howard Fund, Luminate, the UK’s Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office, the Gates Foundation and the US State Department.

    Waqas Ejaz works as Post-doc Research Fellow at University of Oxford as well as a Senior Research Associate at ICFJ.

    – ref. New survey finds an alarming tolerance for attacks on the press in the US – particularly among white, Republican men – https://theconversation.com/new-survey-finds-an-alarming-tolerance-for-attacks-on-the-press-in-the-us-particularly-among-white-republican-men-242719

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Richard Hargy, Visiting Research Fellow in International Studies, Queen’s University Belfast

    paseven / Shutterstock

    In November 2020, when Americans last went to the polls to elect a president, it took four days after voting closed for Joe Biden to be declared the winner.

    This was largely due to razor-thin margins in the crucial battleground states, which resulted in some recounts, as well as large numbers of mail-in ballots that had to be counted after election day. There was the added challenge of this entire process being conducted amid a global pandemic.

    Since then, some states have changed their election laws to speed up the election count. But while it may not take as long this time round, one thing we can be sure of is that a winner will not be known on election night itself.

    When do polls open and close?

    There is no set national time for voting to begin on the morning of November 5. Most states will begin voting at 7am in their local time, with others starting as early as 5am or as late as 10am. Voting will commence at a variety of times in some states, such as New Hampshire, Tennessee and Washington where this is decided by different counties or municipalities.

    Polls close at a range of times across the country, too. Voting will end as early as 6pm US eastern time (11pm GMT) in Indiana and Kentucky, while polls in Hawaii and Alaska, the western-most states, do not close until midnight US eastern time (5am GMT).

    An early indicator of which candidate is performing better will come between 7pm and 8pm eastern time (midnight and 1am GMT), when polls close in the key battleground states of Georgia and North Carolina. Both states are competitive for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, and if the former is declared the victor in either, then the contest will pivot in her favour.

    The next key moment could occur between 8pm and 9pm eastern time (1am and 2am GMT), when voting ends across the so-called blue wall states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. However, it is unlikely that a winner will be declared in any of these states straightaway. By 10pm eastern time (3am GMT), polls will have closed in two other critical swing states, Arizona and Nevada.

    When will votes be counted?

    There are several factors that could hinder results being announced in the hours immediately after voting ends. In Arizona, for example, state laws allow voters to drop their completed ballot papers off at the polling station on election day or the day prior – something that not all states do. However, these “late early” ballots cannot be processed until after voting ends.

    Pennsylvania is arguably the most prized swing state that both the Democratic and Republican campaigns are vying for. The state has 19 electoral votes, the most of any battleground state, so the victor will probably win the electoral college (the group of officials that elects the president based on the vote in each state) and thus also the presidency.



    Read more:
    US election: how does the electoral college voting system work?

    But Pennsylvania does not allow election workers to process mail ballots until 7am local time on election day, which could mean the result takes longer than 24 hours after polls close to be made known.

    That said, Alauna Safarpour, an assistant professor at Pennsylvania’s Gettysburg College, does not think the wait will be as long as it was four years ago. Writing for The Conversation on October 29, she said that it was “highly likely” that fewer Pennsylvanians will choose to vote by mail this time around.

    “A smaller proportion of voters opted to vote by mail in the 2022 midterm election than in the 2020 general election, and that trend is likely to continue in 2024”, she says.



    Read more:
    Why Pennsylvania’s election results will take time to count

    Two more crucial states, Michigan and Nevada, have also made changes to the election count since 2020. These states now permit ballot papers to be processed in advance of polling day. On the other hand, the ability of North Carolina to process votes ahead of the election has been made more difficult due to the damage recently caused by Hurricane Helene. This may lead to further delays.

    In Wisconsin, vote counting in two of the state’s biggest counties – Milwaukee and Dane – can also be particularly slow. Milwaukee and Dane counties are both significant urban centres with a combined population of around 1.5 million people. The margin in these counties will be significant to the result in Wisconsin and the presidential race overall.

    What might delay the results?

    There are concerns that certain domestic players could seek to frustrate and delay election results in the critical swing states. In January 2020, for example, a large number of Republicans in Congress objected to results in Pennsylvania and Arizona – states that were both won by Biden.

    And in seven swing states, people falsely claiming to be members of the electoral college attempted to declare Trump as the winner of their state. Their votes were sent to Congress to be counted alongside those of the true electors, with some Congress members arguing that the new slate of electoral votes cast doubts over the official result in certain states. In 2023, a Trump campaign lawyer, Kenneth Chesebro, pleaded guilty in Georgia to his role in subverting the election.

    Norman Eisen, Samara Angel and Clare Boone, who are all fellows at the Brookings Institution thinktank, have provided detailed analysis on how this scenario could be repeated in 2024. They point to nefarious strategies that could be utilised to confuse results by refusing to certify elections at the “county level”.

    For example, three election deniers – Rick Jeffares, Janice Johnston and Janelle King – hold the balance of power in Georgia’s state election board. They have jointly devised new rules that allow vote certification to be paused while investigations are launched into alleged “irregularities”.

    Eisen, Angel and Boone assert that while “these attempts will likely meet the same fate as prior efforts, they could still stoke uncertainty and distrust.” So, given the existence of these threats and the fact that polls show a dead heat, we will probably not know the election’s winner for at least a few days.

    Richard Hargy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US election: what time do the polls close and when will the results be known? An expert explains – https://theconversation.com/us-election-what-time-do-the-polls-close-and-when-will-the-results-be-known-an-expert-explains-242635

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Doctors are already using AI in care – but we don’t actually know what safe use should look like

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Sujan, Chair in Safety Science, University of York

    It’s too soon to safely use GenAI in regular clinical practice. Josep Suria/ Shutterstock

    One in five UK doctors use a generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) tool – such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Google’s Gemini – to assist with clinical practice. This is according to a recent survey of around 1,000 GPs.

    Doctors reported using GenAI to generate documentation after appointments, help make clinical decisions and provide information to patients – such as comprehensible discharge summaries and treatment plans.

    Considering the hype around artificial intelligence coupled with the challenges health systems are facing, it’s no surprise doctors and policymakers alike see AI as key in modernising and transforming our health services.

    But GenAI is a recent innovation that fundamentally challenges how we think about patient safety. There’s still much we need to know about GenAI before it can be used safely in everyday clinical practice.

    The problems with GenAI

    Traditionally, AI applications have been developed to perform a very specific task. For example, deep learning neural networks have been used for classification in imaging and diagnostics. Such systems prove effective in analysing mammograms to aid in breast cancer screening.

    But GenAI is not trained to perform a narrowly defined task. These technologies are based on so-called foundation models, which have generic capabilities. This means they can generate text, pixels, audio or even a combination of these.

    These capabilities are then fine-tuned for different applications – such as answering user queries, producing code or creating images. The possibilities for interacting with this type of AI appear to be limited only by the user’s imagination.

    Crucially, because the technology has not been developed for use in a specific context or to be used for a specific purpose, we don’t actually know how doctors can use it safely. This is just one reason why GenAI isn’t suited for widespread use in healthcare just yet.

    Another problem in using GenAI in healthcare is the well documented phenomenon of “hallucinations”. Hallucinations are nonsensical or untruthful outputs based on the input that has been provided.

    Hallucinations have been studied in the context of having GenAI create summaries of text. One study found various GenAI tools produced outputs that made incorrect links based on what was said in the text, or summaries included information that wasn’t even referred to in the text.

    Hallucinations occur because GenAI works on the principle of likelihood – such as predicting which word will follow in a given context – rather than being based on “understanding” in a human sense. This means GenAI-produced outputs are plausible rather than necessarily truthful.

    This plausibility is another reason it’s too soon to safely use GenAI in routine medical practice.

    Generative AI functions on the basis of plausibility.
    egaranugrah/ Shutterstock

    Imagine a GenAI tool that listens in on a patient’s consultation and then produces an electronic summary note. On one hand, this frees up the GP or nurse to better engage with their patient. But on the other hand, the GenAI could potentially produce notes based on what it thinks may be plausible.

    For instance, the GenAI summary might change the frequency or severity of the patient’s symptoms, add symptoms the patient never complained about or include information the patient or doctor never mentioned.

    Doctors and nurses would need to do an eagle-eyed proofread of any AI-generated notes and have excellent memory to distinguish the factual information from the plausible – but made-up – information.

    This might be fine in a traditional family doctor setting, where the GP knows the patient well enough to identify inaccuracies. But in our fragmented health system, where patients are often seen by different healthcare workers, any inaccuracies in the patient’s notes could pose significant risks to their health – including delays, improper treatment and misdiagnosis.

    The risks associated with hallucinations are significant. But it’s worth noting researchers and developers are currently working on reducing the likelihood of hallucinations.

    Patient safety

    Another reason it’s too soon to use GenAI in healthcare is because patient safety depends on interactions with the AI to determine how well it works in a certain context and setting – looking at how the technology works with people, how it fits with rules and pressures and the culture and priorities within a larger health system. Such a systems perspective would determine if the use of GenAI is safe.

    But because GenAI isn’t designed for a specific use, this means it’s adaptable and can be used in ways we can’t fully predict. On top of this, developers are regularly updating their technology, adding new generic capabilities that alter the behaviour of the GenAI application.

    Furthermore, harm could occur even if the technology appears to work safely and as intended – again, depending on context of use.

    For example, introducing GenAI conversational agents for triaging could affect different patients’ willingness to engage with the healthcare system. Patients with lower digital literacy, people whose first language isn’t English and non-verbal patients may find GenAI difficult to use. So while the technology may “work” in principle, this could still contribute to harm if the technology wasn’t working equally for all users.

    The point here is that such risks with GenAI are much harder to anticipate upfront through traditional safety analysis approaches. These are concerned with understanding how a failure in the technology might cause harm in specific contexts. Healthcare could benefit tremendously from the adoption of GenAI and other AI tools.

    But before these technologies can be used in healthcare more broadly, safety assurance and regulation will need to become more responsive to developments in where and how these technologies are used.

    It’s also necessary for developers of GenAI tools and regulators to work with the communities using these technologies to develop tools that can be used regularly and safely in clinical practice.

    Mark Sujan is a member of the Centre for Assuring Autonomy, which is funded jointly by Lloyd’s Register Foundation and the University of York. He is author and Deputy Editor at BMJ Health & Care Informatics. The journal frequently publishes research on healthcare AI.

    – ref. Doctors are already using AI in care – but we don’t actually know what safe use should look like – https://theconversation.com/doctors-are-already-using-ai-in-care-but-we-dont-actually-know-what-safe-use-should-look-like-241175

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The budget is good news overall for young professionals – here’s how the changes will affect you

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andy Lymer, Professor of Taxation and Personal Finance, Aston University

    fizkes/Shutterstock

    Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s first budget was full of a dizzying array of measures to raise over £40 billion to fund public services and boost investment.

    The headlines suggest most of the extra taxes to be paid will fall on businesses, not directly on “working people”. If you are recently out of university or early in your career, here are a few measures most likely to affect your life.

    Inheritance tax

    This 40% tax is paid by the estates of those who pass away, before the remaining amount is distributed based on their wishes. It is really more of an estate tax, than a tax on what you inherit personally.

    Little was changed to the tax itself in this budget – you can still receive £325,000 tax-free from each parent, or from your spouse or civil partner. If the estate includes a family home, they can pass this tax free between them and then to their descendants up to a value of £1 million (both get £500,000 each). Estate values beyond this are taxed at 40%.

    The £325,000 threshold hasn’t changed since April 2009, so as house and asset prices rise it means more of an estate’s value over these levels will be subject to tax each year. If this threshold level had kept pace with changes in general prices, the basic inheritance tax threshold should now be more than £500,000.

    The chancellor has decided to extend the fixing of this threshold for another two years – now to at least 2030.

    Does this matter? Very much so, as budget forecasts suggest that while only 5% of current estates are subject to any tax, by 2029-30 this will double, so many more of us will get taxed on inheritances than ever before. This is because as prices keep rising, more and more inheritances will go over the threshold level and be subject to this tax.

    However, this still implies 90% of all estates will be passed on tax-free so most will never end up bearing this tax.

    No one’s 20s and 30s look the same. You might be saving for a mortgage or just struggling to pay rent. You could be swiping dating apps, or trying to understand childcare. No matter your current challenges, our Quarter Life series has articles to share in the group chat, or just to remind you that you’re not alone.

    Read more from Quarter Life:

    One change that Reeves did announce was that inherited pension pots will now all be taxable. Currently, if you inherit unused parts of a pension pot and the owner died aged less than 75, it was passed on tax-free. This won’t happen in the future, and it will instead form part of the estate and be subject to the tax rules above. This means estate sizes could be larger and more will therefore end up getting taxed.

    Reeves also announced the end of the exemption that allows owners of agricultural land and farms, and owners of businesses to avoid inheritance tax. Instead, from April 2026 a £1 million exemption cap will be applied and any assets passed on above this will be taxed at 20% (half the rate applied to other inheritances).

    Housing and stamp duty

    Reeves also announced a rise in stamp duty (the tax paid when you buy a house or flat over a certain value) for those purchasing second homes. While you and your peers are more likely to be trying to buy a first home, the government argues that this increase will give first-time buyers a competitive advantage in the housing market.

    However, there is risk that these extra costs could be passed on, for example to renters of a landlord’s second property in the form of higher rent.

    The government also did not extend the higher thresholds for stamp duty that were announced by the previous Conservative government in the October 2022 mini-budget. So from April next year, first-time buyers will once again have to pay stamp duty on any properties over £300,000, rather than £425,000.

    National insurance

    Employer national insurance contributions (NICs) are also set to rise in April 2025 to 15% (from 13.8%). This doesn’t directly affect employees, as their NIC rate will stay at 8%. However, this may mean there will be less money to pay wage increases or hire new staff.

    The Office for Budget Responsibility expects about 60% of this extra employer NIC cost on average to fall on wages, and about 15% to be passed on to customers in higher prices – so only 25% will affect business profits.

    However, this impact will vary. Smaller businesses and businesses in low margin industries such as low-end retailing or grocery stores, may find this harder to pass on to their employees or customers.

    They will have to absorb more of this cost as reduced profits, which in turn would lead to less money for wage increases or hiring. In effect, it will be cheaper to have more self-employed people (employer NICs are not paid on the self-employed, who have to sort this out themselves).

    Stamp duty has risen – but only on second homes.
    fizkes/Shutterstock

    Minimum wage rising

    Another key change that is likely to disproportionately affect younger workers – national minimum wage is to rise. For those over 21, this will be by 6.7% to £12.21 per hour from April 2025. For a full-time employee, that is an extra £1,400 a year (before tax).

    Those aged 18-20 will be getting an even larger rise to £10 per hour (a 16.3% increase on the current £8.60/hour).

    This is good news for employees, but some fear it could lead to fewer jobs. However, it is a buyer’s market for some lower paid roles, as some industries are struggling to fill vacancies. This may not be a worry for all jobs. Employers will have to pay the minimum wage to get staff they need.

    As always, we will have to wait and see what changes this really creates as people react to the full range of announcements. But the overall government distribution predictions is that all but the very richest will be better off from this budget.

    Very few young professionals fall into this category, so you can almost certainly expect to gain overall from this budget, even if not personally from every change.

    Andy Lymer receives funding from a variety of sources for his work and that of the Centre for Personal Financial Wellbeing that he directs. Most recently this has included the UK’s Money and Pension Service, the Aviva Foundation, and Fair4All Finance.

    – ref. The budget is good news overall for young professionals – here’s how the changes will affect you – https://theconversation.com/the-budget-is-good-news-overall-for-young-professionals-heres-how-the-changes-will-affect-you-242643

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bird flu detected in pigs – here’s why virologists are concerned

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ed Hutchinson, Professor, MRC-University of Glasgow Centre for Virus Research, University of Glasgow

    H5N1 influenza has now been detected in pigs. This was something virologists had been worrying about ever since this highly pathogenic strain of bird flu started its rapid global spread in 2020. But why were we worrying specifically about pigs? And does this case – detected on a farm in Oregon on October 29 – change anything?

    It might seem odd that we care about it at all. In many ways, the initial reports of this case are – against the backdrop of a continuing viral outbreak that has devastated seabird colonies around the world, caused huge die-offs of sea lions and led to the emergence of an entirely new disease of US dairy cattle – pretty innocuous.

    What we currently know is this: H5N1 bird flu infected poultry on a small American non-commercial farm, something which is sadly now quite common. In this case, there were other animals on the farm, including five pigs. Although the pigs appeared to be healthy, a nasal swab from one of them was found to contain H5N1.

    We don’t yet know if the pig was actually infected or if it had just snuffled up some contaminated material from the birds. At the moment, this particular outbreak doesn’t seem to have spread into any other pigs.

    And “spillover” infections on farms, where a virus from one species turns up in another, are nothing new. Back in May, H5N1 turned up in farmed alpacas in a somewhat similar incident.

    In May, bird flu turned up in an alpaca.
    Siam Stock/Shutterstock

    To understand why pigs get virologist’s attention, we need to think about what it means for a virus to jump from one host species to another. A moment’s reflection tells us that changing host species must be an incredibly difficult thing for a virus to do.

    The world is teeming with viruses that infect every species around us. If it wasn’t very nearly impossible for a virus to jump from one species into another, we’d be dealing with a new pandemic every ten minutes.

    Much more subtle

    The reason it’s so difficult for a virus to jump between different types of host is because viruses are fundamentally different from bacteria, or parasites: pathogens that basically just want to eat us. Viruses are much more subtle.

    Viruses work by taking control of our cells and carefully reprogramming them into machines for making more viruses. Because of this, a virus infecting a new host species is like someone trying to win an argument by shouting at people in a language that they can’t understand. And this is where pigs come in.

    Influenza viruses (specifically influenza A viruses, the group to which H5N1 belongs) are unusually good at crossing between different host species. They still only manage to create a new human disease once every few decades, but that’s a better hit rate than any other virus.

    If we look back, most of the pandemics we know of have been caused by influenza viruses, and the threat of a new pandemic is the biggest worry we have about H5N1 now.

    One of the main reasons that influenza is good at learning the language of a new host species is that, if two influenza viruses can get into the same cell at the same time, they will assemble new viruses that take some of their genes from one parent virus and some from the other. The novel virus that this creates can suddenly shift to being better evolved to its host.

    For example, it could still look like an avian virus, which we have no immunity to, while having swapped most of its genes for versions that are very good at winning arguments with human cells. This is a powerful way for a virus to leapfrog towards causing a pandemic. However, it only works if a bird virus and a human virus can get into the same cell at the same time, and this turns out to be really difficult for influenza viruses to do.

    It’s difficult because influenza viruses get into cells by grabbing on to a particular type of sugar molecule that coats the cell surface. This molecule can be chemically assembled in several different shapes, and while one shape of molecule is used on cells in birds (and, we now think, in cow’s udders), a different shape is used on cells in the human airway.

    Mixing vessels

    Bird flu viruses and human flu viruses are trying to get into cells by rattling the handles of different doors, which limits their ability to meet in the same cell. And this is where pigs come in, because it turns out that the cells in pig airways use both types of sugar molecule on their surface. Pig cells can be infected by both bird flu and human flu, making pigs a potential “mixing vessel” in which influenza viruses with pandemic potential could be brewed.

    Has this happened yet? Thankfully, no. At the moment, this detection of H5N1 in a pig appears to have been an isolated incident. We don’t know how likely it is to happen again.

    Indeed, there is an idea that it could be quite hard for this particular virus to infect pigs, a hypothesis supported by some experimental work and by the observation that, despite H5N1 running rampant and turning up in all sorts of animals over the last four years, this is the first time an H5N1 infection of pigs has been suspected.

    Even if H5N1 did succeed in establishing sustained transmission in pigs – as it has already done in cows – what that would mean is far from certain. We know that influenza viruses can mix with each other in pigs, but we also know that the strain of influenza virus that entered pigs in 1918 then circulated in them for over 90 years before combining with other viruses to cause the 2009 swine flu pandemic.

    So why did a report of H5N1 in pigs get so much attention from virologists? H5N1 has the potential to be an extremely dangerous virus for many different animals, and combining its genes with a human virus could make it much more dangerous to us.

    The risks of that happening have already begun to increase as this year’s winter flu season starts for humans while H5N1 is circulating on farms in the US. Any suggestion of the virus turning up in animals that could help it to mix and match with a human influenza is a troubling reminder that H5N1 has the potential to change its capabilities very quickly.

    When it comes to which animals to watch for signs of such a change happening, some animals are more equal than others. For as long as H5N1 is around, virologists are going to watch any infections of pigs with interest.

    Ed Hutchinson is affiliated with the European Scientific Working group on Influenza and other respiratory viruses (ESWI) and has an unpaid position on the advisory board of PinPoint Medical. His reserach receives funding from UKRI and the Wellcome Trust.

    – ref. Bird flu detected in pigs – here’s why virologists are concerned – https://theconversation.com/bird-flu-detected-in-pigs-heres-why-virologists-are-concerned-242623

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to Build a Truth Engine documentary makes for sober but crucial viewing in our age of disinformation

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Clodagh Harrington, Lecturer in American Politics, University College Cork

    If the powerful documentary How to Build a Truth Engine had to be compressed into two thematic strands they might be “how the human mind works” and “how our brain can be manipulated by information”. Director Friedrich Moser’s film takes us on a two-hour voyage of explanation, covering issues from cyber-warfare to elections, COVID to conflict and more.

    Engaged citizens may find some of it they knew already. However, Moser offers a forensic and evidence-based delivery of how, why and the extent to which technology, events and the manipulation of both has had a powerful and deeply disconcerting impact on humans individually and collectively.

    As an expert in American politics, who recently wrote on the crisis of truth in the current US election, I found How to Build a Truth Engine makes for sober but crucial viewing.

    As our news cycles overflow with disinformation and fake news, this visually engaging film takes us on a calm, scientific tour of how we got to where we are – which is disinformation-central.

    Experts in neuroscience, engineering and even folklore explain the ways in which we think and process information. As humans, our brains rely on steady, clear streams of data. When these streams become polluted, our capacity to process and understand reality is challenged, and our vulnerability to false narratives increases.

    Clearly, lying for political purposes is as old as politics itself, but the capacity to disseminate these lies is now on a scale previously unimaginable, as the documentary shows.

    Unsurprisingly, Moser’s production gives much attention to the plight of traditional journalism. It also focuses on the challenges we face as consumers of news now that the process through which information is filtered and considered fit for dissemination has been dismantled to an alarming extent.

    The programme offers a stark reminder of the current state of conventional journalism, weakened by the migration of resources to online search engines where advertising and algorithms trump fact checking and truth telling.

    Among the topics covered is the 2022 Russian invasion of Bucha in Ukraine, in which multiple civilians were killed, with bound bodies left in the streets. At the time, the Kremlin rebuffed Ukrainian allegations of war crimes as a fake narrative and went so far as to state that the civilian massacre was a staged event.

    Western journalists, including New York Times staff, used satellite imagery to piece together events in the lead-up to the atrocity. As a result, they were able to verify what the Ukrainians had told them, but with the powerful addition of visual evidence, which transcended any “he said, she said” narrative.

    If truth is the first casualty of war, this important use of technology for such crucial purpose offers a ripple of accuracy in an ocean of falsehood.

    In highlighting the significance to the human brain of narrative and storytelling, the documentary offers chilling insights regarding the conspiracy theory path that led to the January 6 attack on the US Capitol in 2021. History is filled with tales of societies falling for false narratives, and the assault on the Capitol adheres to these criteria.

    From stereotyping to the creation of insider-outsider narratives (where certain groups are presented as relatable and others as negative and untrustworthy), it is only a small leap to negative assumptions about those deemed outsiders. In the case of January 6 Capitol attack in 2021, the documentary makes clear the groundwork was laid long before any violence took place.

    And so, we are reminded that the fiction that the 2020 election was stolen by Joe Biden was promoted, shared, amplified and repeated back (between Donald Trump, social media and sympathetic television networks) until the protesters were whipped into a frenzy. The result of this unchecked political propaganda was death and destruction.

    Those in Moser’s film offer a chilling reminder that as long as the lie of the “Big Steal”, as it is known now, remains alive as truth in the minds of many Americans, then it can happen again. If the relentless pursuit of accuracy is a core component of journalism, we can see that this pursuit is under constant siege as lies propagate at lightning speed and citizens choose their own truths.

    The documentary taps into the key question of our era: how do we know what we know? In an age of information warfare, truth is a valuable and vulnerable commodity. As humans, we have created technology so advanced that it is already outsmarting us.

    And truth is often diluted, polluted or drowned out completely in our daily communication torrents. This, combined with the nefarious agendas of bad actors means that individuals, communities and our way of life are under significant threat. The consolation, as presented by Moser’s work, may be that technology can also get us out of this predicament. That’s assuming that we want it to.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Clodagh Harrington does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How to Build a Truth Engine documentary makes for sober but crucial viewing in our age of disinformation – https://theconversation.com/how-to-build-a-truth-engine-documentary-makes-for-sober-but-crucial-viewing-in-our-age-of-disinformation-242554

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What poll watchers can − and can’t − do on Election Day

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Mollie J. Cohen, Assistant Professor of Political Science, Purdue University

    Poll watchers keep an eye on voting in Georgia in November 2022. AP Photo/Ben Gray

    When most people think of their experience of voting in person, they may remember other voters at the polls, or the hardworking election officials checking people in and helping people submit their ballots. But in many elections, a third group is often present: poll watchers.

    Poll watchers are ordinary citizens who volunteer to observe elections on behalf of an organization. Many of them do so on behalf of a specific political party. Other volunteers are nonpartisan poll watchers; they observe the action at polling places on behalf of nonpartisan organizations, including domestic groups and international election watchdogs such as the Carter Center or the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

    The United States has not historically relied extensively on international election monitors, and they are prohibited in some states, such as Tennessee. Most often, when journalists and academics like us refer to poll watchers in the U.S., we mean partisan election observers.

    If all goes well on Election Day, poll watchers’ jobs will be tedious. They will simply watch voters performing the key acts of democracy: filing into the precinct, engaging with poll workers and casting ballots. Partisan poll watchers will also likely observe the tabulation of ballots and receive an official copy of the results in case they choose to conduct a simultaneous tally.

    What do poll watchers do?

    Poll watchers protect their organization’s interests at polling places. By observing as ballots are cast and counted, poll watchers can help ensure that only eligible voters participate and that blatant election rigging – like stuffing the ballot box with unauthorized ballots – does not occur.

    As observers independent of the government officials they are monitoring, poll watchers can add an extra layer of transparency and accountability to election proceedings and help to ensure that elections are free and fair.

    Poll watchers, like this one in Detroit in 2020, monitor all aspects of voting and tabulation.
    AP Photo/David Goldman

    However, poll watchers can also undermine the integrity of elections. For example, poll watchers may overzealously – and illegally – challenge a citizen’s eligibility to cast a ballot without cause. Or their presence may intimidate or pressure voters.

    In the 1980s, for example, the Republican Party in New Jersey recruited uniformed, off-duty police officers to watch the polls and posted signs offering a reward for information about people violating election laws. A lawsuit over that activity led to a nationwide court order barring the Republican National Committee from using poll watchers without clearance from a federal judge. The order was lifted in 2018.

    Historical records show that, since the early 1800s, poll watchers from both parties frequently challenged the eligibility of African Americans and likely immigrants, often leading to their removal from the voter rolls. In cases like these, poll watchers can undermine the core democratic principle of voters’ freedom to participate.

    It is also important to remember that many poll watchers are partisans – they work on behalf of their political parties. In fact, in recent years a central goal of the Republican Party has been recruiting and deploying poll watchers. Our research shows that in the current era of polarized partisan politics in the United States, the mere presence of partisan actors at polling locations can undermine voters’ trust in elections.

    What are the rules?

    While the history and partisan nature of election observation may raise concerns about voter intimidation, a variety of federal and state laws protect voters on Election Day.

    Poll watchers are subject to federal laws that protect voters from intimidation and interference. Many states also have additional regulations that govern what poll watchers can do when observing elections.

    For instance, some states require formal training. The state of Georgia, for example, requires all partisan poll watchers to complete training provided by their political party. Watchers in Ohio, on the other hand, must be registered voters but are not required to complete formal training.

    Another important difference between states is whether they allow poll watchers to directly interact with voters. In some states, such as Georgia, poll watchers may not speak to voters. In others, such as Ohio, poll watchers can speak with voters but can’t threaten voters for choosing a certain candidate or encourage them to vote for another.

    Poll workers, like these in New York City in 2020, often make sure poll watchers can see what’s happening.
    AP Photo/John Minchillo

    Challenging voters’ eligibility

    A final important difference between states rules about poll watchers is whether they can challenge the eligibility of a voter. Good-faith challenges can arise when a poll watcher has a strong reason to believe that a voter is not eligible to vote in the district where they are voting. Pennsylvania poll watchers, for example, are allowed to keep a list of eligible voters and could register a challenge if they believe someone not on that list is attempting to vote.

    Poll watchers who operate in bad faith may make challenges based on little or no evidence, with the intention of distracting poll workers, demoralizing voters and slowing voting, rather than ensuring the rules are followed correctly.

    Poll watchers generally raise challenges at the polling place directly with election administrators, who are local volunteers and employees. Voters whose eligibility is challenged may have to cast a provisional ballot and present additional proof of their identification and residence to election officials, either on Election Day or in a later legal proceeding. Importantly, many states have strong regulations that aim to protect voters against arbitrary challenges to their eligibility. Challengers in Florida, for example, must submit a formal written oath attesting to the accuracy of their challenge and are subject to prosecution if the challenge is determined to be “frivolous.”

    If a poll watcher suspects that something is amiss at a polling location while voters are casting ballots or while ballots are being tabulated, they can raise concerns with local election administrators or other election officials, such as local boards of elections. They may also pass the word up through the political party they are representing.

    Many issues are straightforward to address, and election workers respond immediately. More complex concerns – or allegations reported to party leaders by many poll watchers in different locations – may ultimately lead to legal action in the courts.

    Mollie J. Cohen has received funding from the Russell Sage Foundation.

    Geoffrey D. Sheagley receives funding from the Russell Sage Foundation.

    – ref. What poll watchers can − and can’t − do on Election Day – https://theconversation.com/what-poll-watchers-can-and-cant-do-on-election-day-241544

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The 27 Club isn’t true, but it is real − a sociologist explains why myths endure and how they shape reality

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Zackary Okun Dunivin, Postdoctoral Fellow in Communication, University of California, Davis

    Many members of the 27 Club are outsize in their cultural influence. Psychology Forever/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    There’s a certain allure to the notion that some of the world’s brightest stars burn out at the age of 27. The so-called 27 Club has captivated the public imagination for half a century. Its members include legendary musicians Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin, Jim Morrison, Kurt Cobain and Amy Winehouse. The idea is as seductive as it is tragic: a convergence of talent, fame and untimely death at a singular age.

    But is there any truth to this phenomenon, or is it merely a story we tell ourselves and each other about fame and youth?

    In our newly published research, my colleague Patrick Kaminski and I explore why the 27 Club persists in culture. We didn’t set out to debunk the myth. After all, there is no reason to think that 27 is an especially dangerous age beyond superstition.

    Rather, we wanted to explore the 27 Club to understand how such a myth gains traction and affects people’s perception of reality.

    Is the 27 Club real?

    The origin of the 27 Club dates back to the early 1970s, following the deaths of Brian Jones, Jimi Hendrix, Janis Joplin and Jim Morrison – all at age 27, within a span of two years.

    This uncanny coincidence left its mark on collective memory. It wasn’t just their age. It was the common thread of musical genius, countercultural influence and the tragic allure of lives cut short by a cocktail of fame, drug use and the struggle of being human. The narrative is not just compelling but almost mystical in its synchronicity.

    Analyzing data from 344,156 notable deceased individuals listed on Wikipedia, we found that while there’s no increased risk of dying at 27, those who do die at that age receive significantly more public attention. Using Wikipedia page views as a proxy for fame, our study revealed that the legacies of these 27-year-olds are amplified, garnering more visibility than those who die at adjacent ages.

    This increased visibility has a strange effect: People are more likely to encounter those who died at 27 than other young ages, even if they are not aware of the myth. This in turn creates the appearance of greater risk of mortality at 27. The myth of the 27 Club is a self-fulfilling prophecy: It became “real” because we believed it.

    Why is the 27 Club a thing?

    We believe this phenomenon can be understood through three interrelated concepts: path dependence, stigmergy and memetic reification.

    Path dependence refers to how random events can set a precedent that influences future outcomes. The initial cluster of high-profile deaths at age 27 was statistically improbable – we estimate that one in 100,000 timelines would have four such famous deaths at age 27 – but it established a narrative pathway that has persisted and shaped collective reality.

    Stigmergy describes how traces of an event or action left in the environment can indirectly coordinate future events or actions. In the digital age, platforms such as Wikipedia serve as repositories of collective memory. The existence of a dedicated 27 Club page, with links to its members’ pages, increases the visibility of those who die at 27. This creates a feedback loop: The more we click, the more prominent these figures become, and the more the myth is reinforced.

    Finally, what we call memetic reification captures how beliefs can shape reality. We draw from a sociological concept called the Thomas theorem, which states that if you “define a situation as real, they are real in their consequences.” The 27 Club myth has tangible effects on cultural memory and fame. By imbuing significance into the age of 27, society elevates the legacies of those who die at that age, making the myth materially consequential.

    Why do myths endure?

    Why do such myths endure? At their core, myths are not about factual accuracy but about narratives that resonate with people. They thrive on mystery, tragedy and the human penchant for finding patterns even in randomness. The story of the 27 Club is poetic, encapsulating the fleeting nature of genius and the fragility of life. It’s a story that begs to be told and retold, regardless of its veracity.

    This isn’t an isolated phenomenon. Cultural patterns often arise from chance events that, through collective commitment and storytelling, become embedded in our understanding of the world.

    Your social world shapes what you value and how you behave.

    Consider the evolution of language – why do we call a dog a “dog”? There is nothing doggy about the word. Philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein observed that nearly all symbols are arbitrary. Some countries drive on the left side of the road while others on the right. While the choice to adopt left- or right-side traffic is influenced by neighboring countries or car producers, ultimately these followed from an arbitrary resolution to the need to pick one side or the other. These conventions began as random occurrences that, over time, became standardized and meaningful through social reinforcement.

    The 27 Club serves as a lens through which you can examine the power of mythmaking in shaping perceptions of history and reality. It highlights how collective beliefs can have real-world consequences, influencing who becomes immortalized in cultural memory. It’s a testament to the complex interplay between chance events, storytelling and the mechanisms by which myths are perpetuated.

    Though we may appear to dispel the myth of the 27 Club, let’s not abandon the story. We’re myth trusters, not myth busters. In unraveling the myth, we’re acknowledging the profound ways in which narratives influence our collective consciousness. By understanding the processes behind myth formation, we can better appreciate the richness of culture and the stories people choose to tell.

    Zackary Dunivin has received funding from the National Science Foundation Research Traineeship Grant 1735095 “Interdisciplinary Training in Complex Networks and Systems.”

    – ref. The 27 Club isn’t true, but it is real − a sociologist explains why myths endure and how they shape reality – https://theconversation.com/the-27-club-isnt-true-but-it-is-real-a-sociologist-explains-why-myths-endure-and-how-they-shape-reality-242693

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How scenario planning could help Canadian policymakers deal with American political chaos

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kevin Quigley, Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie University

    One of the most bizarre aspects of the United States presidential election has been how difficult it’s been to determine the truth — particularly due to Republican Donald Trump’s candidacy — and if the truth even matters.

    As former Trump advisor Anthony Scaramucci once noted about the former president: “Don’t take him literally, take him symbolically.” This advice wasn’t very helpful.

    The difficulty in determining what is true is symptomatic of the high levels of uncertainty that Canadian policymakers are confronted with regularly in their dealings with their American counterparts.

    Voters in the most powerful nation on Earth — and Canada’s neighbour and largest trading partner — are choosing between two starkly different choices on the ballot, and Canada must be attentive and adaptive across a number of policy areas.

    Three-part process

    Scenario planning provides an effective way to address such high levels of uncertainty. The method can generate difficult and radically different descriptions of the future by way of challenging participants, requiring imaginative interventions and overcoming stability and optimism biases.

    At the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance at Dalhousie University, our team used this method extensively throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, including with members of the tourism industry in early 2021. The method proved to be an effective tool for these organizations in planning for the 2021 tourism season in light of the uncertainty posed by COVID-19.

    There are typically three parts to the approach, divided by sessions. The first session establishes the goals the participants wish to achieve in light of their unique challenges and timelines. Goals vary but usually address some aspect of the medium-term success of the organization. Timelines can be anything from a few months down the road to decades from now.

    Motivating factors

    The group then discusses drivers, which are highly impactful forces beyond their immediate control that will shape the scenarios. Two drivers are selected, often based on supply-and-demand concepts.

    During the second session, participants describe four scenarios based on the two drivers, answering questions that include:

    1. What does this scenario look like?

    2. How would we arrive at this scenario?

    3. What are the underlying causes of the scenario?

    4. What are the critical failures and opportunities in this scenario?

    Finally, the group names the scenario. The four scenarios are deliberately intended to be different and extreme in order to push people beyond their comfort zones.

    At the third session, participants establish how they’re going to judge policies and operational changes knowing that any one of the four scenarios could materialize.

    Trade, economy

    In terms of scenario planning for the Canada-U.S. relationship, Canadian policymakers could consider U.S. trade policies as the first driver (liberal trade policies vs. protectionist policies) and the state of the American economy as the second driver (it either booms or it sinks into a deep recession).

    Organized as a two-by-two matrix, policymakers can explore four plausible future scenarios: either liberal or protectionist trade policies, during either an economic boom or a recession.

    Within these four scenarios, policymakers can develop criteria by which to evaluate Canadian policies knowing that any one of these four scenarios could materialize.

    There are important things to consider at the design stage.

    To start, it can be time-consuming to organize and execute the sessions. You can run remarkably simple and helpful sessions in a day, or extremely involved ones over several months.

    The number of participants is flexible. Usually it involves a small to medium-sized group, but individuals can use the two-by-two matrix to think through problems over lunch.

    Who’s there matters. We tend to invite people who represent different parts of an organization or sector. That provides legitimacy to the process and satisfies a sense of fair play, and this approach can also help participants accept the conclusions and communicate them broadly.

    At the same time, having representatives from each part of the organization can lead to turf wars. It can serve to reinforce existing institutional arrangements rather than challenge, change and in some cases abolish them. Bringing in guest speakers to share best practices from other jurisdictions can help to discuss difficult issues.

    The Ambassador Bridge, spanning the Detroit River between Windsor and Detroit, in December 2021. The trade and economic relationship between the U.S. and Canada provides lots of material for scenario planning for Canadian policymakers.
    THE CANADIAN PRESS/Fred Thornhill

    Embracing diversity

    Scenario planning exercises also favour elite groups — experts, company executives and clever high flyers who are skilled at imaginative thinking. Turning to these elite groups can be at odds with equity, diversity, inclusion and accessibility principles.

    Diverse sources of information can challenge participants to think differently and also help participants to understand the impacts of scenarios to different communities.

    Participants also need to be able to speak frankly. Values may differ, and attempts by participants to avoid saying anything controversial can crowd out more nuanced thoughts.

    Generally, egalitarian dynamics lead to consensus-seeking solutions. But this doesn’t always result in more radical transformations. In some respects, the four possible scenarios compel participants to consider quite different views, which can be helpful.

    Diverse participants in scenario planning sessions can challenge people to think differently.
    (Shutterstock)

    All of this makes discussing how to judge new programs at the third session more challenging and important.

    One way to address these challenges is to have a broad way to discuss and evaluate each strategy. Typically, we examine different parts of the strategy — how an organization gathers information, sets standards and changes behaviour internally — and different criteria by which to judge the strategies (efficiency, fairness and accountability and stability and learning).

    An experienced moderator with some professional distance from the group can help to keep the conversation on time, on subject and challenge participants when conventional wisdom starts to creep in.

    Public agencies are premised on a command-and-control dynamic, but policymakers increasingly need tools and skills that allow them to anticipate, address and communicate risks over which they have limited control.

    The U.S. election and its aftermath in the weeks and months to come are a salient and consequential example. Scenario planning allows policymakers to challenge their assumptions and have difficult conversations in light of quickly changing events in order to seize opportunities and reduce vulnerabilities.

    Kevin Quigley received funding from the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency, Change Lab Action Research Network, and SSHRC for the work discussed in this article.

    – ref. How scenario planning could help Canadian policymakers deal with American political chaos – https://theconversation.com/how-scenario-planning-could-help-canadian-policymakers-deal-with-american-political-chaos-242335

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Ni-Vanuatu journalist Doddy Morris balances grief and duty in the aftermath of earthquake

    By Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson

    For Doddy Morris, a journalist with the Vanuatu Daily Post, the 7.3 magnitude earthquake that struck Vanuatu last month on December 17, 2024, was more than just a story — it was a personal tragedy.

    Amid the chaos, Morris learned his brother, an Anglican priest, had died.

    “My mom called me crying and asked, ‘Did your brother die?’. I wasn’t sure and told her I was heading to Vila Central Hospital right away,” he recalled.

    Morris arrived at the hospital to confirm the worst. “My heart sank when I confirmed that my brother had indeed passed away. At that moment, I forgot about my job.”

    Doddy’s brother’s coffin . . . Doddy bids him farewell before the casket is flown to their home island. Image: Doddy Morris The New Atoll

    Despite his grief, Morris joined his remaining brothers at the hospital mortuary that night, staying by their deceased sibling’s side and mourning together. “We were the only ones there. We spent the whole night drinking kava outside while he lay in the cool room,” he said.

    The quake — which claimed 14 lives, injured more than 265 people, and displaced more than 1000 — left an indelible mark on Port Vila and its residents. Infrastructure damage was extensive, with schools, homes, and water reserves destroyed, and the Central Business District (CBD) heavily impacted.

    In the days following the earthquake, Morris returned to his role as a reporter, capturing the unfolding crisis despite the emotional toll. “When the earthquake struck, I thought I was going to die myself,” he said. Yet, minutes after the tremor subsided, he grabbed his camera and rushed to the CBD.

    At the heart of the destruction, he witnessed harrowing scenes. “I was shocked to see the collapsed Billabong building. A body lay covered with a blue tarpaulin, and Pro Rescue teams were trying to save others who were trapped inside,” Morris recounted.

    The lack of a network connection frustrated his efforts to report live, but he pressed on, documenting the damage.

    A month after the disaster, Morris continues to cover the aftermath as Vanuatu transitions from emergency response to recovery. “A month has passed since the earthquake, but the memories remain fresh. We don’t know when Port Vila will return to normal,” he said.

    His photojournalism has been demonstrating the true impact of the earthquake as he continues to capture the mourning of a nation after such a tragic event.

    Doddy Morris’ photojournalism . . . demonstrating the true impact of the earthquake as he continues to capture the mourning of a nation after such a tragic event. Image: Vanuatu Daily Post/The New Atoll

    The earthquake left deep scars, not only on the nation’s infrastructure but also on its people. “Unlike cyclones, which we can predict, prepare for, and survive, earthquakes strike without warning and show no mercy,” Morris said.

    Through grief and uncertainty, Morris remains committed to his work, documenting the resilience of his community and the challenges they face as they rebuild. His reporting serves as a testament to the strength of both the people of Vanuatu and a journalist who continues to bear witness, even in the face of personal loss.

    Journalist Doddy Morris . . . reporting on the traumatic events of the earthquake meant confronting his own grief while documenting the grief of others. Image: The New Atoll

    Reporting on his own community while grappling with personal loss is a reality for many Pacific Island journalists who cover disasters. For Doddy Morris, reporting on the traumatic events of the earthquake meant confronting his own grief while documenting the grief of others.

    Dr Lagipoiva Cherelle Jackson is a Pacific journalism trainer with the Dart Center for Journalism and Trauma. She expresses her support for Morris and his colleagues in showing “extraordinary courage and resilience”. This article was first published by The New Atoll and is republished with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Friends like these: What a second Trump term may mean for the CDC, and how it affects Canada

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kevin Quigley, Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, Dalhousie University

    Should Donald Trump be re-elected on Tuesday, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is likely facing a major shake-up. Many Republicans were frustrated by the CDC’s performance during the pandemic. Project 2025, authored by leading Republicans with ties to Trump, describes the CDC as incompetent and arrogant.

    In fact, no matter who wins the United States presidential election on Nov. 5, the Trump administration’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic is a cautionary tale for Canada.

    While there is significant and justifiable criticism to be leveled at Trump about his administration’s handling of the pandemic in the early stages, as former chief medical advisor to the president, Dr. Anthony Fauci noted to Congress in 2024, the U.S. health system is not designed for an effective co-ordinated response to a health crisis.

    Trump and the CDC

    There was clearly a disconnect between Trump and the CDC during the pandemic. For weeks in early 2020, President Trump had described the threat as low risk; he said that the situation was under control in the U.S. and that only a few cases had been reported.

    While the president was on a return flight from India, Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the CDC, announced that the situation in the U.S. was about to change quickly and severely. Officials say that Trump was very upset by the announcement and concerned about potential lockdowns causing panic and disruption to financial markets.

    Throughout the early stages of the pandemic, the actions of the CDC sparked a high degree of politicization. The Trump administration was criticized for interfering with the CDC’s operations and censoring internal experts. Disagreements between federal and state political leaders and public health experts led to inconsistencies in public health messaging, reporting, enforcement of directives and timing of public health restrictions.

    The CDC itself was not above criticism. The agency’s infrastructure had been neglected for decades, and years of declining funding resulted in insufficient preparations for a possible pandemic. The CDC had also been criticized for being too insular and academic.

    The CDC made key mistakes, particularly regarding surveillance and testing. It was criticized for underestimating the threat of the virus and overestimating its ability to design, manufacture and distribute a test quickly.

    Rapid responses are crucial during such events, and the early stages of the U.S.’s pandemic response provides salient lessons for Canada, both about its relationship with the U.S. and to global threats more generally.

    Pre-event planning is necessary, but audits and world rankings of emergency preparedness can be unreliable. In 2019, Johns Hopkins University ranked the U.S. as the best prepared country in the world to address a health crisis. The pandemic demonstrated that it was not.

    Canada needs to establish a strong and independent capacity to assess health threats. Trump’s early handling of the pandemic has been widely criticized, yet the Canadian government’s speaking points in the early stages were the same: the virus was low risk. It was only when the CDC and the World Health Organization increased its threat assessment that Canada followed suit.

    Lessons from the pandemic

    Borders can re-assert themselves. Despite decades of global political and economic agreements that saw a freer flow of goods, services and people, many western governments were unable or unwilling to assume the risks associated with letting those from other jurisdictions cross their borders, and as such, imposed strict rules to prevent non-citizens from entering. This aggressive stance was ironic and unforeseen, as during previous public health crises such as the H1N1 flu episode in 2009-10, many governments underscored that closing borders had little impact on disease spread.

    The weaknesses of supply chains were highlighted as the global economy shut down in March 2020. Canada’s Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland described competition for medical supplies and personal protective equipment (PPE) as resembling the “wild west.” Shipment delays, order shortages, trade restrictions and defective or contaminated items prevented governments from effectively procuring supplies.

    Global manufacturing capabilities for vaccines were below what was needed, with only about a dozen countries able to produce COVID-19 vaccines early on, including the U.S. More than any other country, the U.S. enabled the rapid development and production of the vaccine, highlighting Canada’s considerable dependence on the U.S. Canada has since funded vaccine manufacturing initiatives, but the investments have produced little to-date.

    The adage “When the U.S. sneezes, the world catches a cold” applies nowhere more than in Canada. Should Trump be re-elected, the CDC will likely exist on a smaller budget with a reduced role internationally. This will increase Canadian vulnerabilities.

    Whatever the criticisms, the CDC has more capacity and influence than any other health agency in the world. If Canada cannot depend on strong and co-ordinated response from the U.S. administration during a health crisis, Canada has to be better prepared to adapt. Lessons from the pandemic provide a powerful to-do list.

    Kevin Quigley is the Scholarly Director of the MacEachen Institute for Public Policy and Governance, an independent, non-partisan research institute located at Dalhousie University.

    – ref. Friends like these: What a second Trump term may mean for the CDC, and how it affects Canada – https://theconversation.com/friends-like-these-what-a-second-trump-term-may-mean-for-the-cdc-and-how-it-affects-canada-242673

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: West Papuan outcry over Prabowo’s plan to revive transmigration

    By Victor Mambor in Jayapura

    Just one day after President Prabowo Subianto’s inauguration, a minister announced plans to resume the transmigration programme in eastern Indonesia, particularly in Papua, saying it was needed for enhancing unity and providing locals with welfare.

    Transmigration is the process of moving people from densely populated regions to less densely populated ones in Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s most populous country with 285 million people.

    The ministry intends to revitalise 10 zones in Papua, potentially using local relocation rather than bringing in outsiders.

    The programme will resume after it was officially paused in Papua 23 years ago.

    “We want Papua to be fully united as part of Indonesia in terms of welfare, national unity and beyond,” Muhammad Iftitah Sulaiman Suryanagara, the Minister of Transmigration, said during a handover ceremony on October 21.

    Iftitah promised strict evaluations focusing on community welfare rather than on relocation numbers. Despite the minister’s promises, the plan drew an outcry from indigenous Papuans who cited social and economic concerns.

    Papua, a remote and resource-rich region, has long been a flashpoint for conflict, with its people enduring decades of military abuse and human rights violations under Indonesian rule.

    Human rights abuses
    Prabowo, a former army general, was accused of human rights abuses in his military career, including in East Timor (Timor-Leste) during a pro-independence insurgency against Jakarta rule.

    Simon Balagaize, a young Papuan leader from Merauke, highlighted the negative impacts of transmigration efforts in Papua under dictator Suharto’s New Order during the 1960s.

    “Customary land was taken, forests were cut down, and the indigenous Malind people now speak Javanese better than their native language,” he told BenarNews.

    The Papuan Church Council stressed that locals desperately needed services, but could do without more transmigration.

    “Papuans need education, health services and welfare – not transmigration that only further marginalises landowners,” Reverend Dorman Wandikbo, a member of the council, told BenarNews.

    Transmigration into Papua has sparked protests over concerns about reduced job opportunities for indigenous people, along with broader political and economic impacts.

    Apei Tarami, who joined a recent demonstration in South Sorong, Southwest Papua province, warned of consequences, stating that “this policy affects both political and economic aspects of Papua.”

    Human rights ignored
    Meanwhile, human rights advocate Theo Hasegem criticised the government’s plans, arguing that human rights issues are ignored and non-Papuans could be endangered because pro-independence groups often target newcomers.

    “Do the president and vice-president guarantee the safety of those relocated from Java,” Hasegem told BenarNews.

    The programme, which dates to 1905, has continued through various administrations under the guise of promoting development and unity.

    Indonesia’s policy resumed post-independence on December 12, 1950, under President Sukarno, who sought to foster prosperity and equitable development.

    It also aimed to promote social unity by relocating citizens across regions.

    Transmigration involving 78,000 families occurred in Papua from 1964 to 1999, according to statistics from the Papua provincial government. That would equal between 312,000 and 390,000 people settling in Papua from other parts of the country, assuming the average Indonesian family has 4 to 5 people.

    The programme paused in 2001 after a Special Autonomy Law required regional regulations to be followed.

    Students hold a rally at Abepura Circle in Jayapura, the capital of Indonesia’s Papua Province, yesterday to protest against Indonesia’s plan to resume a transmigration programme, Image: Victor Mambor/BenarNews

    Legality questioned
    Papuan legislator John N.R. Gobay questioned the role of Papua’s six new autonomous regional governments in the transmigration process. He cited Article 61 of the law, which mandates that transmigration proceed only with gubernatorial consent and regulatory backing.

    Without these clear regional regulations, he warned, transmigration lacks a strong legal foundation and could conflict with special autonomy rules.

    He also pointed to a 2008 Papuan regulation stating that transmigration should proceed only after the Indigenous Papuan population reaches 20 million. In 2023, the population across six provinces of Papua was about 6.25 million, according to Indonesia’s Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS).

    Gobay suggested prioritising local transmigration to better support indigenous development in their own region.

    ‘Entrenched inequality’
     British MP Alex Sobel, chair of the International Parliamentarians for West Papua, expressed concern over the programme, noting its role in drastic demographic shifts and structural discrimination in education, land rights and employment.

    “Transmigration has entrenched inequality rather than promoting prosperity,” Sobel told BenarNews, adding that it had contributed to Papua remaining Indonesia’s poorest regions.

    Pramono Suharjono, who transmigrated to Papua, Indonesia, in 1986, harvests oranges on his land in Arso II in Keerom regency last week. Image: Victor Mambor/BenarNews]

    Pramono Suharjono, a resident of Arso II in Keerom, Papua, welcomed the idea of restarting the programme, viewing it as positive for the region’s growth.

    “This supports national development, not colonisation,” he told BenarNews.

    A former transmigrant who has served as a local representative, Pramono said transmigration had increased local knowledge in agriculture, craftsmanship and trade.

    However, research has shown that longstanding social issues, including tensions from cultural differences, have marginalised indigenous Papuans and fostered resentment toward non-locals, said La Pona, a lecturer at Cenderawasih University.

    Papua also faces a humanitarian crisis because of conflicts between Indonesian forces and pro-independence groups. United Nations data shows between 60,000 and 100,000 Papuans were displaced between and 2022.

    As of September 2024, human rights advocates estimate 79,000 Papuans remain displaced even as Indonesia denies UN officials access to the region.

    Pizaro Gozali Idrus in Jakarta contributed to this report. Republished with the permission of BenarNews.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Quincy Jones mastered the art of arrangement, transforming simple tunes into epic soundscapes

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jose Valentino Ruiz, Associate Professsor of Music Business and Entrepreneurship, University of Florida

    Quincy Jones left his indelible touch on some of the 20th century’s most iconic albums. Arnold Turner/Getty Images for Netflix

    On the sleeve notes of some of the most memorable and best-selling albums of all time, you’ll find the words “Produced and arranged by Quincy Jones.”

    It was a hallmark of quality.

    Jones, who died on Nov. 3, 2024, at the age of 91, transformed our understanding of musical arrangement. His work spanned decades and genres, from jazz and pop to hip-hop and film scoring. He worked with pop icons like Michael Jackson, Frank Sinatra, Ray Charles and Aretha Franklin, and also collaborated with lesser-known artists such as Lesley Gore and Tevin Campbell.

    Each of his projects, collaborations and forays into new genres redefined what it meant to arrange music.

    As a music business and entrepreneurship professor, I’ve studied and taught Jones’ techniques, which I hope can inspire the next generation of musicians.

    A master musical architect

    Musical arrangement might seem like an abstract concept.

    Simply put, it’s the art of deciding how a song unfolds. While a composer writes the melody and harmony, an arranger shapes the experience, choosing which instruments play when, how textures build and where dynamics shift.

    Arrangement transforms a song from notes on paper into a fully realized piece of art that resonates with listeners. In essence, an arranger acts as a musical architect, designing the structure of a song to tell a compelling story.

    Jones brought a visionary approach to arranging. He wasn’t merely filling in the gaps around a melody with a drum beat here and a horn section there; he was crafting a musical narrative that gave each instrument a purpose, guiding listeners through an emotional journey.

    From his early work in the 1950s and 1960s with jazz greats like Count Basie and R&B star Ray Charles, to his blockbuster productions with Michael Jackson, Jones saw arrangement as a tool to guide listeners from one musical moment to the next.

    Elevating voices

    His work on “Sinatra at the Sands” is but one example.

    Jones created lush, energetic big-band arrangements that perfectly complemented Sinatra’s smooth, warm voice. The choice of brass swells and the dynamic shifts amplified Sinatra’s charisma, turning the album into a lively, almost-cinematic experience. Unlike many arrangements, which often stay in the background, Jones’ took center stage, blending harmoniously with Sinatra’s vocals while adding depth and excitement to the entire performance.

    In Ray Charles’ “I Can’t Stop Loving You,” Jones used orchestral swells and background vocals to bring out the soul in Charles’ voice, creating a richly emotional experience for listeners. By intelligently pairing Charles’ gospel-tinged vocals with a polished, orchestral arrangement, Jones captured the tension between sorrow and resilience – a demonstration of his ability to communicate complex emotions through arrangement.

    Ray Charles, left, shares a laugh with Quincy Jones in 2004.
    George Pimentel/WireImage for NARAS via Getty Images

    Turning songs into stories

    Jones’ skill at using arrangement as a storytelling device was exemplified by his collaboration with Jackson.

    Albums like “Thriller” and “Off the Wall” showcased Jones’ knack for inventively layering sounds. On “Thriller,” Jones combined electronic and acoustic elements to create a multidimensional soundscape that set a new standard for production.

    His ability to incorporate textures, background vocals and unique instrument choices – such as horror actor Vincent Price’s iconic narration on the song “Thriller” – transformed pop music, setting the stage for future producers to experiment with storytelling in their own arrangements.

    In Jackson’s “Bad,” Jones pushed the boundaries of genre by blending funk rhythms with pop structures, giving Jackson’s music a timeless appeal.

    The title track’s arrangement has layers of rhythm and harmony that build a feeling of tension and power, enhancing Jackson’s message of confidence and defiance. Each instrument and background vocal in “Bad” serves a purpose, creating a sound that is bold, exciting and engaging.

    Lessons for educators

    For educators teaching music production and commercial music, Jones’ approach provides a gold mine of practical lessons.

    First, his commitment to genre fusion teaches students the importance of versatility. Jones’ career demonstrates that blending jazz, pop, funk and even classical elements can create something innovative and accessible. Students can learn to break free from the constraints of single-genre production, seeing instead how various musical styles can work together to create fresh, engaging sounds.

    Quincy Jones, pictured here with Michael Jackson, won 28 Grammys during his career.
    Chris Walter/WireImage via Getty Images

    Second, Jones’ emphasis on storytelling through arrangement offers students a framework for making music that resonates.

    In my classes, I encourage students to ask themselves: How does each musical element support the emotional arc of the song? By studying Jones’ arrangements, students learn to think of themselves as storytellers, not just sound engineers. They can begin to see arrangement as an art form in itself – one that has the power to captivate audiences by drawing them into a musical journey.

    Finally, Jones’ work shows the power of collaboration. His willingness to work across genres and with a variety of artists – each bringing unique perspectives – demonstrates the value of open-mindedness and adaptability.

    His life’s work serves as a reminder that music is more than just sound; it’s an experience shaped by careful, intentional decisions, with every sound and silence in a piece of music serving a purpose.

    Jose Valentino Ruiz is the CEO of JV Music Enterprises.

    – ref. Quincy Jones mastered the art of arrangement, transforming simple tunes into epic soundscapes – https://theconversation.com/quincy-jones-mastered-the-art-of-arrangement-transforming-simple-tunes-into-epic-soundscapes-242877

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada and churches have moral obligations for the reparations of missing and disappeared Indigenous children: Final Report

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Frank Deer, Professor, Faculty of Education, University of Manitoba

    Independent Special Interlocutor Kimberly Murray has released her final report after two years of examining the issue of missing and disappeared Indigenous children and unmarked burials sites at residential schools in Canada.

    During the ceremony last week in Gatineau, Que., Murray said governments do not often implement recommendations given on such reports. So she opted to identify 42 “legal, moral and ethical obligations” for governments, churches and other institutions. These are proposals on how to make holistic reparations to Indigenous Peoples.

    Murray emphasized that the children were “victims of enforced disappearance.”

    Since the 1870s and continuing for more than 150 years, over 150,000 First Nations, Métis and Inuit children were taken from their families and forced to attend church-run, government-funded residential schools. The National Centre for Truth and Reconciliation has documented more than 4,100 deaths of children at the schools.

    After potential unmarked graves were identified at former residential school sites, the Canadian government appointed Murray to make recommendations on unmarked graves and burial sites.

    The report, “Sites of Truth, Sites of Conscience” focuses on aspects of the Indian Residential School experience: unaccounted missing children, unmarked grave sites, the roles of government and churches in the Indian Residential School genocide and failure to maintain records of the deaths and burials of deceased children.

    The report centres Indigenous strategies for research and advances a framework of reparations to “support the search for and recovery of the missing and disappeared children and unmarked burials.” It is an extension of the work of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada (TRC) whose final report devoted an entire volume toward missing children and unmarked burials. The newest report is even more bold than the Final Report of the Truth and Reconciliation Commission of Canada.

    The TRC report observed that “the most basic of questions about missing children — Who died? Why did they die? Where are they buried? — have never been addressed or comprehensively documented by the Canadian Government.”

    Since the TRC report was released in 2015, efforts to investigate this issue of missing children and unmarked graves has increased significantly.

    CBC News report: Special interlocutor on Unmarked Graves and Burial Sites issues final report.

    Reconciliation and reparations

    Murray explores the issue of genocide in the Indian Residential School system in ways that indict the Canadian government and other institutions of crimes.

    The report says Canada must refer to “the enforced disappearance of children,” as a “crime against humanity” and the issue needs to be taken to the International Criminal Court. It further states that the “federal government and other institutions have worked harder to protect perpetrators than they ever did to protect Indigenous children, families, and communities,” and that Canada has embraced a culture of “settler amnesia and willful forgetting.”

    In support of this indictment, Murray shows how the government and church were not only responsible for acts of omission in that somehow failed to protect Indigenous children in their care. Instead, they were acts of commission: deliberately created situations in which Indigenous children in their care were severely harmed.

    Murray refers to this as forced disappearances — when the liberty of Indigenous children is taken away and their fate was concealed.

    In addition, the Independent Special Interlocutor also focuses on, among other things, our moral and ethical obligations as foundational frames for reparations.

    A moral framework

    Murray put forth 42 obligations that reflect the morally and ethically centred responsibilities of governments, churches and other institutions.

    These moral and ethical responsibilities inform the reparations that Murray articulates in her report.

    These responsibilities and obligations include:

    • Calls for long-term financial support of investigations into missing and disappeared Indigenous children and Indian Residential School burial sites

    • Support for survivors

    • The recording of their stories

    Core values

    Underlining the report is a moral principal that efforts to find missing children and unmarked graves must be Indigenous-led.

    These moral principles, this foundation for action, articulated by Murray, can provide a compelling rationale that may help change attitudes and action.

    The recent report puts forth several moral and ethical principles which we need to consider.

    One of the report’s powerful statements is:

    “Children must be cared for in life and after death.”

    This might seem to some a simple point that is obvious and even unnecessary. However, the distance between such important declarations and the policies of Canadian governments and institutions has been vast.

    That this particular principle refers to the importance of care “after death” ought to be familiar to any of us who’ve lost loved ones. However, stating it clearly here strengthens the point that government and other institutions have obligations to children who died in their care.

    Another important principle from the report is that “search and recovery work is sacred.”

    The need to discover who died, the reasons why they died, and the location of their remains is one so connected to the emotional well-being of living descendants and fellow community members that it is a spiritual journey.

    This is why the search and recovery processes must be Indigenous-led.

    This report, like the TRC’s and the final report of the National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls, contains demands for action that should be accepted and acted upon by governments and institutions.

    The moral and ethical principles that inform those demands can be as important for informing change. It is in these principles that we may find moral guidance and direction toward righteousness.

    We may also find, if we’re paying attention, our humanity.

    Frank Deer receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada.

    – ref. Canada and churches have moral obligations for the reparations of missing and disappeared Indigenous children: Final Report – https://theconversation.com/canada-and-churches-have-moral-obligations-for-the-reparations-of-missing-and-disappeared-indigenous-children-final-report-242560

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Fijian journalists embrace multimedia landscape for the digital age

    By Catrin Gardiner, Queensland University of Technology

    In the middle of the Pacific, Fiji journalists are transforming their practice, as newsrooms around Suva are requiring journalists to become multimedia creators, shaping stories for the digital age.

    A wave of multimedia journalists is surfacing in Fijian journalism culture, fostered during university education, and transitioning seamlessly into the professional field for junior journalists.

    University of the South Pacific’s technical editor and digital communication officer Eliki Drugunalevu believes that multimedia journalism is on the rise for two reasons.

    “The first is the fact that your phone is pretty much your newsroom on the go.”

    With the right guidance and training in using mobile phone apps, “you can pretty much film your story from anywhere”, he says.

    The second reason is that reliance on social media platforms gives “rise to mobile journalism and becoming a multimedia journalist”.

    Drugunalevu says changes to university journalism curriculum are not “evolving fast enough” with the industry.

    Need for ‘parallel learning’
    “There needs to be parallel learning between what the industry is going through and what the students are being taught.”

    Mobile journalism is growing increasingly around the world. In Fiji this is particularly evident, with large newsrooms entertaining the concept of a single reporter taking on multiple roles.

    Fijian Media Association’s vice-president and Fiji Times editor-in-chief Fred Wesley says one example of the changing landscape is that the Times is now providing all its journalists with mobile phones.

    “While there is still a photography department, things are slowly moving towards multimedia journalists.”

    Wesley says when no photographers are available to cover a story with a reporter, the journalists create their own images with their mobile phones.

    Journalists working in the Fiji Times newsroom, which is among the last few remaining news organisations in Fiji to have a dedicated photography department. Image: Catrin Gardiner, Queensland University of Technology

    The Fiji Broadcasting Corporation (FBC) also encourages journalists to take part in all types of media including, online, radio, and television, even advertising for multimedia journalists. This highlights the global shift of replacing two-person teams in newsrooms.

    Nevertheless, the transition to multimedia journalists is not as positive as commonly thought. Complaints against multimedia journalism come from journalists who receive additional tasks, leading to an increase in workload.

    FBC advertises for multimedia journalists, reflecting the new standard in newsrooms. Image: FBC TV/Facebook/QUT

    Preference for print
    Former print journalist turned multimedia journalist at FBC, Litia Cava says she prefers focusing on just print.

    She worked a lot less when she was just working in a newspaper, she says.

    “When I worked for the paper, I would start at one,” she says. “But here I start working when I walk in.”

    Executives at major Fijian news companies, such as Fiji TV’s director of news, current affairs and sports, Felix Chaudhary, also complain about the lack of equipment in their newsrooms to support this wave of multimedia journalism.

    “The biggest challenge is the lack of equipment and training,” Chaudhary says.

    Fiji TV is doing everything it can to catch up to world standards and provide journalists with the best equipment and training to prepare them for the transition from traditional to multimedia journalism.

    “We receive a lot of assistance from PACMAS and Internews,” Chaudhary says. “However, we are constantly looking for more training opportunities. The world is already moving towards that, and we just have to follow suit or get left behind.”

    More confidence
    Fortunately for young Fijian journalists, Islands Business managing editor Samantha Magick says a lot of younger journalists are more confident to go out and produce and write their own stories.

    “It’s the education now,” she says. “All the journalists coming through are multimedia, so not as challenging for them.”

    University of South Pacific student journalist Brittany Louise says the practical learning of all the different media in her journalism course will be beneficial for her future.

    “I think that’s a major plus,” she says. “You already have some sort of skills so it helps you with whatever different equipment it may be.”

    Catrin Gardiner was a student journalist from the Queensland University of Technology who travelled to Fiji with the support of the Australian government’s New Colombo Plan Mobility Programme. This article is published in a partnership of QUT with Asia Pacific Report, Asia Pacific Media Network (APMN) and The University of the South Pacific.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Research and news relevance key factors driving the future of The Conversation – edition founder

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephen Khan, Editor

    I took a walk through the beautiful campus of Brown University in Providence, Rhode Island recently, as I was in the city for the annual gathering of the various editions of The Conversation.

    This project follows a devolved model, providing local leadership and engagement with the higher education and research sectors that support it in different parts of the world. Alongside me on this sunny stroll through one of the world’s great educational neighbourhoods was Alfred Hermida, Professor at the University of British Columbia School of Journalism.

    Alf and I don’t see a huge amount of each other, but when we do it tends to be pretty productive. We first met in July 2014 at an event at the University of Amsterdam, where I stood in for The Conversation founder Andrew Jaspan, and delivered a speech on the establishment of the project – then it only existed in Australia and the UK. Alf was pretty taken with the story, and the unique model. Less than a week later he was in our newsroom at City, University of London, talking to our editors about his research into social media and news.

    But something else was going on in Alf’s head – something about discussions he’d had previously with his colleague Professor Mary Lynn Young that Canada could have its own edition of The Conversation. And for the next couple of years he and Mary-Lynn together built the case within the country’s higher education sector for a membership-supported Conversation Canada. It launched in 2017 under the remarkable leadership of Scott White and now forms one of the most important and valued parts of the global network.

    So it was great to see Alf and note the edition’s success. But it was also fascinating to hear about his ongoing research and insights into the changing media landscape, both in Canada and internationally. Among the trends Alf and colleagues have noticed recently is that many students no longer arrive harboring ambitions of working for big media players. In part, he feels, this is down the decline of such full-career opportunities. But he also hears from students that they don’t see themselves reflected in the legacy news outlets. Instead it is the small independent players and even solo operations now excite many aspiring journalists more than traditional newsrooms.

    Brown university campus in Providence, Rhode Island.
    Author provided, CC BY

    “I have a global cohort of journalism students in class,” said Alf. “Many are driven by a sense of mission, looking to address the way journalism has historically marginalized or mispresented diverse communities. They look to journalism as a way of making the world a better place and are drawn to new journalism start-ups that are looking to reimagine what journalism is and could be.”

    Alf views the Conversation as part of this shift in how journalism is done. As I’ve written before, we are sometimes asked if what we do really is journalism. I’ve suggested that it may not matter, so long as our content is valuable, trusted and accessible. Alf goes further though, arguing that the production method deployed by The Conversation and pursuit of informed, evidence-based reporting
    that drives it, makes it fundamentally journalism, albeit of a different style to that which typified the newspaper era.

    Alf explained: “The scholars who write for The Conversation are taking on journalistic practices, guided and mentored by our team of professional journalists. While the authors are not journalists in the traditional sense, they are producing journalism that seeks to explain and interpret the world around us to help the public lead better lives. This is what journalism is all about.”

    As for the route ahead for The Conversation Canada, and the network more broadly, Alf, as you might expect (and hope), grounds some of his thoughts in research. Indeed, in research conducted by one of his graduate journalism students.

    Savannah Parsons considered traffic to The Conversation Canada late in 2023 as part of her study, and sought to ascertain what type of content drew readers in, and what kept them there. The picture is of course mixed, but there is a clear pattern that illustrates that expert engagement with news and events is a central factor in bringing readers to the website and our content more broadly. However, Parsons’ study also indicated that content we might traditionally describe as “more featurey”, that is, less tied to events, perhaps more narrative and perhaps even taking the form of audio rather than – or as well as – text, plays a vital role in building a loyal audience that will return to Conversation content, time after time.

    So, as was ever the case, there is a mix to be considered. And it will be for edition leads to decide exactly how that mix is deployed, and in what form, to suit individual markets. But it is clear to Alf, and I think to most of us at The Conversation, that news-relevance, timeliness and, of course, research, will be the central factors driving the project through its second decade.

    – ref. Research and news relevance key factors driving the future of The Conversation – edition founder – https://theconversation.com/research-and-news-relevance-key-factors-driving-the-future-of-the-conversation-edition-founder-242812

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –