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Category: Global

  • MIL-OSI Global: Reform or retreat? The Catholic church in Africa after Pope Francis

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Stan Chu Ilo, Research Professor, World Christianity and African Studies, DePaul University

    The Catholic church faces a fundamental question as it prepares to elect a new pope. That is, whether to go back to a monarchical papacy with its pomp and pageantry, or to build on the momentum begun by Pope Francis. He focused on the poor and proffered a humble lifestyle and message of hope.

    I am a theologian who has studied the development of Catholicism in Africa, especially under the leadership of Pope Francis. In my view, the church after him will be defined by two forces, which will be at play during the process of choosing a new pope.

    First, those who embrace Pope Francis’ wide-ranging, modernising changes in the Catholic church. The reform-minded pope made it possible to advance a new church culture that respected the voice and agency of the non-ordained. He pushed for a servant leadership, and a more pastoral, missionary, and accountable exercise of authority.

    In the second camp are those Catholics who oppose the reforms introduced by Pope Francis. They see cultural evolution and social change as destroying the traditions and teachings of the church. They would like to restore the Latin Mass with its ancient church rituals and male clerical culture.



    Read more:
    How the next pope will be elected – what goes on at the conclave

    These camps are entrenched in their positions. The 138 cardinals (18 of whom are Africans) who will elect the new pope will voice their views at meetings held ahead of the conclave. These processes will determine who will be elected.

    The 18 African cardinal-electors will be fully aware that the divisive issues in contemporary Catholicism often neglect the concerns and needs of Africa. These concerns include a continued colonial structure, and racialised thinking and mentality that sees Africa as one country rather than a continent of diversity and pluralism.

    My hope is that the cardinals will find among their ranks someone in the mould of Pope Francis who has a far-reaching vision. Someone with the courage to continue reforming the ecclesial systems and structures to meet this moment with the gospel of love.

    Catholicism in Africa

    Pope Francis often pointed to Africa, which is seeing the highest growth in population in the Catholic church, as the continent of joy and hope. A continent where the world can see how religious faith can bring about a different attitude to human relationship, communal resilience, solidarity, and global fraternity.

    But African Catholicism has been severely affected by the polarisation in the broader church. This is particularly true on issues of marriage and family life. Other polarising issues include same-sex marriages, climate change, the place of women in leadership in a patriarchal church, and the autonomy of local African Catholic dioceses from the central authority of the Roman Catholic Church.

    The Catholic bishops of Africa need to be united in addressing these issues. In particular, there is a growing consensus that the most pressing challenge facing African Catholicism is how to wean itself from being dependent on resources from the west.

    The Catholic church in Africa – despite its exponential growth – is still treated as a “mission territory”, in need of institutional, theological, pastoral and material support from Rome. As a result, it receives financial support for its activities, and the running of schools and social agencies, from the Roman Church and other western Catholic charities.

    This dependency has affected the growth and autonomy of African Catholics and churches in setting forth and implementing priorities and projects that address the unique situation of Africa. As mission churches, African Catholic churches are “under the protection” of the Roman agency in charge of evangelisation. As a result, there are limits to what African churches can do on their own without the permission and supervision of the Roman office.

    A self-reliant Catholic church in Africa that’s free from the control of Rome would be able to stand strong in world Catholicism. A less dependent African Catholic church could be an alternative staging ground for new forms of faith that meet the spiritual hunger of today’s world. This would mean providing vibrancy of worship and a sense of community through the social and spiritual bonds that exist in African churches.



    Read more:
    Pope Francis: why his papacy mattered for Africa – and for the world’s poor and marginalised

    Given the changing demographics in the world church – where a majority of the 1.4 billion Catholics live outside Europe – it’s clear that Africa and the rest of the global south can no longer accept being dominated by Eurocentric Catholicism. Catholicism cannot be reduced to a single cultural or ecclesial form. It is not a western prototype that has to be replicated in Africa and the rest of the global south without regard to the social, spiritual and cultural contexts of churches in these regions.

    Viewed in this light, the future of Catholicism in Africa must be built on the agency of African cultures, religious values and traditions. Not on a rigid centralisation of power that reduces African dioceses, institutions and congregations to outposts of Rome.

    The Catholic church in Africa must take the lead in promoting human rights, good governance and the empowerment of women. It needs to reflect the values of inclusion through its leadership, structures and priorities.

    Renewed focus

    Pope Francis’ attention to the poor and the victims of history, and his commitment to global solidarity and fraternity, captured the imaginations of many. In my view, the power that the Catholic church or the next pope will wield won’t arise from the power of position or a rigid doctrinal formula. It will come from the power of non-transactional and self-effacing love through gospel non-violence. This promotes reconciliation, justice and compassion.

    Catholicism suffers when it narrows what it means to be Catholic to rituals and repetitive communal practices and devotions, without attention to people’s personal experience and encounters with God, nature and others. Or when it interprets as normative and divine revelation those traditions, laws or structures that are the product of history, culture and human attempts to meet the challenges of a bygone age.

    Stan Chu Ilo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Reform or retreat? The Catholic church in Africa after Pope Francis – https://theconversation.com/reform-or-retreat-the-catholic-church-in-africa-after-pope-francis-255452

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: ‘Dead weight comes to mind’ when thinking about Gazan parents and genocide

    World Media Freedom Day reflections of a protester

    Yesterday, World Media Freedom Day, we marched to Television New Zealand in Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland to deliver a letter asking them to do better.

    Their coverage [of Palestine] has been biased at its best, silent at its worst.

    I truly believe that if our media outlets reported fairly, factually and consistently on the reality in Gaza and in all of Palestine that tens of thousands of peoples lives would have been saved and the [Israeli] occupation would have ended already.

    Instead, I open my Instagram to a new massacre, a new lifeless child.

    I often wonder how we get locked into jobs where we leave our values at the door to keep our own life how (I hope) we wish all lives to be. How we all collectively agree to turn away, to accept absolute substandard and often horrific conditions for others in exchange for our own comforts.

    Yesterday I carried my son for half of this [1km] march. He’s too big to be carried but I also know I ask a lot from him to join me in this fight so I meet him in the middle as I can.

    Near the end of the march he fell asleep and the saying “dead weight” came to mind as his body became heavier and more difficult to carry.

    I thought about the endless images I’ve seen of parents in Gaza carrying their lifeless child and I thought how lucky I am, that my child will wake up.

    How small of an effort it is to carry him a few blocks in the hopes that something might change, that one parent might be spared that terrible feeling — dead weight.

    Republished from an Instagram post by a Philippine Solidarity Network Aotearoa supporter.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Rabuka salutes Fiji media but warns against taking freedom for granted

    By Anish Chand in Suva

    Fiji Prime Minister Sitiveni Rabuka has paid tribute to all those working the media industry in his message to mark World Press Freedom Day.

    He said in his May 3 message thanks to democracy his coalition government had removed the “dark days of oppression and suppressions”.

    “Today as we join the rest of the international community in celebrating World Press Freedom Day, let us recommit ourselves to the values and ideals of our fundamental human rights freedom of expression and the freedom of the press,” said Rabuka, a former coup leader.

    “With our recent history, let as not take this freedom for granted.”

    Rabuka also remembered the late Sitiveni Moce who died in 2015.

    RNZ Pacific reports Moce was left paralysed and bedridden in 2007 after being assaulted by soldiers shortly after the 2006 military coup.

    “Today is also an opportune time to remember those in the media fraternity that made the ultimate sacrifice.”

    ‘Brave photographer’
    “In particular, I pay tribute to my ‘Yaca’ (namesake), the late Sitiveni Moce who died in 2015.

    “This brave newspaper photographer was set upon by a mob in Parliament House in 2000, and again by some members of the disciplined forces in 2007 for simply carrying out his job which was to capture history in still photographs.

    “His death is a sombre reminder of the fickleness of life, and how we must never ever take our freedoms for granted.”

    Republished from The Fiji Times with permission.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s wrongful deportation case is more about individual rights than the Trump administration’s foreign policy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chimene Keitner, Martin Luther King, Jr. Professor of Law, University of California, Davis

    U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, right, meets with Kilmar Abrego Garcia in San Salvador, El Salvador, on April 17, 2025. Photo by Sen. Van Hollen’s office via Getty Images

    Trump administration officials have repeatedly claimed that judges who order the administration to take action to bring deported Venezuelans back from the El Salvador prison where the U.S. sent them are meddling in the conduct of foreign policy.

    “The foreign policy of the United States is conducted by President Donald J. Trump − not by a court − and no court in the United States has a right to conduct the foreign policy of the United States,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on April 14.

    His comments refer to cases including that of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, a 29-year-old Salvadoran man who was deported to El Salvador on March 15, 2025, without any due process. The Trump administration says it will not bring him back to the U.S., despite a Supreme Court order to facilitate his return.

    A reporter on April 30 asked Rubio about whether he has been in touch with El Salvador regarding Abrego Garcia’s potential release from a maximum security prison there.

    “Well I would never tell you that and you know who else I would never tell? A judge. Because the conduct of our foreign policy belongs to the president,” Rubio said.

    Rubio made a similar point on April 14, posting on X, “No court in the United States has a right to conduct the foreign policy of the United States. It’s that simple. End of story.”

    The legal cases of Abrego Garcia and other noncitizens deported to El Salvador are far from simple. Chimène Keitner, a scholar of international law and civil litigation, answers a few key questions about the power that U.S. judges actually have in these wrongful deportation cases.

    The Supreme Court building in Washington, D.C., on April 28, 2025, with construction scaffolding on the facade.
    Brendan Śmiałowski/AFP via Getty Images

    Are these cases really about foreign policy or something else?

    These wrongful deportation cases aren’t primarily about foreign policy, despite what Trump officials have said − they’re about the protection of individual rights, including the right to due process.

    The Trump administration is arguing that courts cannot grant relief to individuals challenging their deportation and detention if those individuals are sent to another country and imprisoned there. Under that argument, even a wrongfully detained and deported U.S. citizen would be out of luck. That can’t, in my understanding, be right.

    In Reid v. Covert, a foundational case from 1957, the Supreme Court made clear that the government cannot deprive U.S. citizens of due process by entering into an agreement with a foreign country.

    Now, noncitizens are being detained in El Salvador under arrangements concluded between Rubio and Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele in February 2025.

    So far, the relevant agreements have not been disclosed to Congress, arguably in violation of U.S. law. They also have not been disclosed to courts that have sought answers about relevant details.

    Following an April trip to El Salvador, U.S. Sen. Chris Van Hollen, a Democrat from Maryland, said that the U.S. will pay El Salvador $15 million to imprison the deported noncitizens − and that El Salvador is imprisoning these men only because the U.S. is paying for it.

    What are other important elements to understand about these cases?

    The Trump administration is arguing that a judge or the Supreme Court cannot order it to return noncitizens to the U.S., because detention operations in El Salvador, a sovereign country, are beyond the reach of U.S. courts.

    However, the U.S. decisions to arrest, detain and deport noncitizens to El Salvador, and to pay for their incarceration there with U.S. taxpayer dollars, are not foreign policy decisions that cannot be reviewed by any judge.

    They are, I would argue, governmental deprivations of the individual right to due process.

    A U.S. court does not have power over the government of El Salvador. However, it can order the U.S. government to request an individual’s return. The Supreme Court has ordered the government to “facilitate” the return of Abrego Garcia.

    The government has argued that “facilitate” in this context simply requires removing domestic U.S. legal obstacles. However, given that Abrego Garcia is being detained in El Salvador, any effective remedy would require the U.S. government to request his return under the detention agreement between the two countries.

    Another federal judge made this clear in an April order requiring the government to make a “good faith request” to El Salvador to release a different wrongfully deported 20-year-old.

    Meanwhile, Trump has stated that his administration is exploring the idea of extending the El Salvador detention agreement to encompass U.S. citizens. Judges have already expressed concern that U.S. citizens, including children, are being removed from the country “with no meaningful process.”

    These actions cannot be shielded from judicial review on the grounds that they involve foreign policy.

    President Donald Trump shakes hands with Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele at the White House on April 14, 2025.
    Win McNamee/Getty Images

    Could the Trump administration legitimately claim that judges cannot rule on its foreign policy decisions?

    The Constitution gives foreign affairs powers to both the executive and legislative branches. Judges can’t conduct foreign policy. They can, however, decide cases that may affect foreign policy, especially when individual rights are at stake.

    Another country’s involvement in a case doesn’t prevent U.S. courts from protecting individual rights.

    Can these court orders to bring back wrongfully deported individuals be enforced?

    The Trump administration is currently trying to portray judges as spreading “lawlessness” with these court orders, in the words of Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller. But I would argue that the opposite is true. If the White House disagrees with an order by a district court or court of appeals, it can seek review by the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, it is obliged to obey lower court orders absent a stay, or pause, of their implementation.

    Courts can do their part to reject claims that the executive branch is entitled to act without regard for legislative or judicial limits by issuing strongly worded orders and even holding officials in contempt. At the end of the day, however, only Congress is empowered to remove a president who refuses to comply with the law.

    Chimene Keitner does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kilmar Abrego Garcia’s wrongful deportation case is more about individual rights than the Trump administration’s foreign policy – https://theconversation.com/kilmar-abrego-garcias-wrongful-deportation-case-is-more-about-individual-rights-than-the-trump-administrations-foreign-policy-255067

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Labor routs the Coalition as voters reject Dutton’s undercooked offering

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    In a dramatic parallel, what happened in Canada at the beginning of this week has now been replicated in Australia at the end of the week.

    An opposition that a few months ago had looked just possibly on track to dislodge the government, or at least run it close, has bombed spectacularly. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton has lost his Queensland seat of Dickson, as did the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in Canada.

    Far from being forced into minority government, as most observers had been expecting, Labor has increased its majority, with a substantial swing towards it.

    Its strong victory reflects not just the the voters’ judgement that the Coalition was not ready to govern. It was worse than that. People just didn’t rate the Coalition or its offerings.

    Multiple factors played into this debacle for the Coalition.

    A first-term government historically gets a chance of a second term.

    The Trump factor overshadowed this election. It made people feel it was best to stick with the status quo. People also were very suspicious of Dutton, whom they saw (despite disclaimers) as being too like the hardline US president.

    After the last election, Dutton was declared by many to be unelectable, and that proved absolutely to be the case, despite what turned out to be a misleading impression when the polls were so bad for Labor.

    Even if they’d had a very good campaign, the Coalition would probably not have had a serious chance of winning this election.

    But its campaign was woeful. The nuclear policy was a drag and a distraction. Holding back policy until late was a bad call. When the policies came, they were often thin and badly prepared. The ambitious defence policy had no detail. The gas reservation scheme had belated modelling.

    The forced backflip on working from home, and the late decision to offer a tax offset, were other examples of disaster in the campaign.

    Dutton must wear the main share of the blame. He kept strategy and tactics close to his chest.

    But the performance of the opposition frontbench, with a few exceptions, has been woeful. Shadow Treasurer Angus Taylor and finance spokeswoman Jane Hume have been no match for their Labor counterparts Jim Chalmers and Katy Gallagher.

    Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Labor ran a very disciplined campaign. Albanese himself performed much better than he did in 2022.

    Labor was helped by an interest rate cut in February and the prospect of another to come later this month.

    Albanese transformed himself, or was transformed, from last year to this year.

    The cost of living presented a huge hurdle for Labor, but the government was able to point to relief it had given on energy bills, tax and much else. The Coalition had opposed several of Labor’s measures and was left trying to play catch-up at the end.

    The Liberal Party now has an enormous task to rebuild. The “target the suburbs” strategy has failed. At the same time, the old inner-city Liberal heartland is deeply teal territory.

    Hume said, in an unfortunately colourful comment, on Friday, “You do not read the entrails until you have gutted the chicken”.

    The chicken has now been gutted. There will be a much more bitter post mortem than in 2022. The leadership choices are less than optimal for the party: Angus Taylor? Andrew Hastie? Sussan Ley?

    An interesting thought: if Josh Frydenberg had held his seat in 2022, and led the Liberal party to this election, would be result have been better? One thing is clear: Frydenberg took the right decision in not recontesting Kooyong, which teal Monique Ryan has held.

    Anyway, who would want to lead the Liberals at this moment?

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Labor routs the Coalition as voters reject Dutton’s undercooked offering – https://theconversation.com/labor-routs-the-coalition-as-voters-reject-duttons-undercooked-offering-255617

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Palestine protesters march on TVNZ, accuse broadcaster of bias on Gaza

    Asia Pacific Report

    About 1000 pro-Palestinian protesters marked World Press Freedom Day — May 3 — today by marching on the public broadcaster Television New Zealand in Auckland, accusing it of 18 months of “biased coverage” on the genocidal Israeli war against Gaza.

    They delivered a letter to the management board of TVNZ from Palestine Solidarity Network (PSNA) co-chair John Minto declaring: “The damage [done] to human rights, justice and freedom in the Middle East by Western media such as TVNZ is incalculable.”

    The protesters marched on the television headquarters near Sky Tower about 4pm after an hour-long rally in the heart of the city at a precinct dubbed “Palestine Square” in the Britomart transport hub’s Te Komititanga Square.

    Several opposition politicians spoke at the rally, calling for a ceasefire in the brutal war on Gaza that has killed more than 62,000 Palestinians with no sign of a let-up.

    Labour Party’s disarmament and arms control spokesperson Phil Twyford was among the speakers that included Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson and Ricardo Menéndez March.

    All three spoke strongly in support of Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick’s Member’s Bill to sanction Israel for its unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

    Davidson said the opposition parties were united behind the bill and all they needed were six MPs in the coalition government to “follow their conscience” to support it.

    Appeals for pressure
    They appealed to the protesters to put pressure on their local MPs to support the humanitarian initiative.

    Protesters outside the Television New Zealand headquarters in Auckland today. Image: Asia Pacific Report

    In The Hague this week, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) heard evidence from more than 40 countries and global organisations condemning Israel over its actions in deliberately starving the more than 2 million Palestinians by blockading the besieged enclave for more than the past two months.

    Only the United States and Hungary spoke in support of Israel.

    A senior diplomat from Qatar, a leading mediator country in the war, told the ICJ that Israel was conducting a “genocidal war against the Palestinian people” and weaponising humanitarian aid.

    Mutlaq al-Qahtani, Qatari Ambassador to The Netherlands, also said there were “new trails of tears in the West Bank mirroring Gaza’s fate”.


    Israel executing ‘genocidal war’ against Gaza, Qatar tells ICJ.    Video: Al Jazeera

    Among the speakers in the Auckland rally, one of about 30 similar protests for Palestine across New Zealand this weekend, was coordinator Roger Fowler of the Auckland-based Kia Ora Gaza humanitarian aid organisation, who denounced the overnight drone attack on the Gaza-bound Freedom Flotilla aid ship Conscience in international waters after leaving Malta.

    The ship was crippled by the suspected Israel attack, endangering the lives of some 30 human rights activists on board. Fowler said: “That’s 2000 km away from Israel, that’s how desperate they are now to stop the Freedom Flotilla.”

    A protester placard declaring “TVNZ, you’re biased reporting is shameful. Where is your integrity?” Image: Asia Pacific Report

    He reminded protesters that Marama Davidson and retired trade unionist Mike Treen had been on previous aid protest voyages in past years trying to break the Israeli blockade, but there was no New Zealander on board in the current mission.

    Media ‘credibility challenge’
    Journalist and Pacific Media Watch convenor Dr David Robie spoke about World Media Freedom Day. He paid a tribute to the sacrifices of 211 Palestinian journalists killed by Israel — many of them targeted — saying Israel’s war on Gaza had become the “greatest credibility challenge for journalists and media of our times”.

    Many protesters carried placards declaring slogans such as “TVNZ your biased reporting is shameful. Where is your integrity?”, “Journalists are not targets” and “Caring for the children of Palestine is what it’s about.”

    After marching about 1km between Te Komititanga Square and the TVNZ headquarters, the protesters gathered outside the entrance chanting for fairness and balance in the reporting.

    “TVNZ lies. For the past 18 months they have been nothing but complicit,” said one Palestinian speaker to a chorus of: “Shame!”

    He said: “Every time TVNZ lies, a little boy in Gaza dies.”

    Another Palestinian speaker, Nadine, said: “Every time the media lies, a little girl in Gaza dies.”

    The Palestine Solidarity Network Aotearoa (PSNA) letter to Television New Zealand’s board. Image: Asia Pacific Report

    Deputation delivers TVNZ letter
    A deputation from the protesters delivered the letter from PSNA’s John Minto addressed to the TVNZ board chair Alastair Carruthers but found the main foyer main entrance closed so the message was left.

    Minto’s two-page letter calling for an independent review of TVNZ’s reporting on Palestine and Israel said in part:

    “Over the past 18 months of industrial scale killing of Palestinians by the Israeli military in Gaza we have been regularly appalled at the blatantly-biased reporting on the Middle East by Television New Zealand.

    “TVNZ’s reporting has been relentlessly and virulently pro-Israel. TVNZ has centred Israeli narratives, Israeli explanations, Israeli justifications and Israeli propaganda points on a daily basis while Palestinian viewpoints are all but absent.

    “When they are presented they are given rudimentary coverage at best. More often than not Palestinians are presented as the incoherent victims of Israeli brutality rather than as an occupied people fighting for liberation in a situation described by the International Court of Justice as a “plausible genocide”.

    “This pattern of systemic bias and unbalanced reporting is not revealed by TVNZ’s complaints system which focuses on individual stories rather than ingrained patterns of pro-Israel bias.

    “Every complaint we have made to TVNZ has, with one minor exception, been rejected by your corporation with the typical refrain that it’s not possible to cover every aspect of an issue in a single story but that over time the balance is made up.

    “Our issue is that the bias continues throughout TVNZ’s reporting on a story-by-story, day-by-day basis — the balance is never achieved. The reporting goes ahead just the way the pro-Israel lobby is happy with.”

    The rest of the letter detailed many examples of the alleged systematic bias, such as failing to describe Gaza, West Bank and East Jerusalem and as “Occupied” territory as they are designated under international law, and failing to state the illegality of Israel’s military occupation.

    Minto concluded by stating: “It is prolonging Israel’s illegal occupation, its apartheid policies, its ethnic cleansing and theft of Palestinian land. TVNZ is part of the problem – a key part of the problem.”

    The letter called for an independent investigation.

    Palestinian protesters at TVNZ headquarters while demonstrating against the public broadcaster’s coverage of the Israeli war against Gaza on World Press Freedom Day. Image: Asia Pacific Report

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: UK local elections delivered record-breaking fragmentation of the vote

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hannah Bunting, Senior Lecturer in Quantitative British Politics and Co-director of The Elections Centre, University of Exeter

    If there were such a thing as landslide victories for local elections, Reform could easily claim to have won one in 2025. Out of the 1,641 seats available, Nigel Farage’s party came away with 677 – that’s more than 41%. The Liberal Democrats came second with 370 (a net gain of 163). Overall, only a quarter of seats went to the two main parties combined – the Conservatives on 319 (down 677) and Labour 98 (down 189).

    Looking at the ward-level results shows that the voting patterns in 2025 were very different to those seen at any other local election. It’s clear that this election broke records for the extent of fragmentation – a significant movement away from the dominance of the two parties that have dominated British politics for the past century.

    There are several ways to measure this. One method is by looking at the two-party vote share, this is because fragmentation occurs when voters have a greater number of parties to choose from and opt for parties other than Conservative and Labour when casting their ballots. Analysis of 1,282 wards in the 2025 local election shows the average two-party vote share was just 36.8%. That’s the lowest it’s ever been since Labour established itself as a main party. In fact, it’s never before been lower than 50% – and the 2025 figure is a full 20 points below the previous record of 56.9%, set in 2013 when UKIP did well.

    Conservative + Labour vote share across 80 years of local elections

    How the combined vote share of the Conservatives and Labour has fluctuated across 80 years.
    The Elections Centre, CC BY-SA

    Another method is by looking at the vote share that the winning party received in each ward. If that’s high, it means most people rallied around a single party with their votes, whereas a low winner’s vote share means a person was elected with low levels of support from the electorate. Remember, the first-past-the-post electoral system only requires a plurality of votes, and not a majority.

    Winning vote shares across 80 years of local elections

    The vote share taken by the winning party in local elections across 80 years.
    The Elections Centre, CC BY-ND

    Again, 2025 is the lowest in comparable history. The average winner’s vote share was just 40.7%, meaning three in five people did not vote for the party who won. The most similar years were during the height of UKIP’s popularity, in 2013 and 2014, before the announcement that the Brexit referendum would take place if the Conservatives won the 2015 general election. Whereas for the locals it was Reform who won most of the seats, at the 2024 general election it was Labour. However, in July 2024, it was the first time that the average winning party’s vote share fell below 40% in 30 years of general elections.

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    We can also observe fragmentation using the majorities secured by winning parties – if they are decisive victories, there’ll be a greater majority. The average winning majority was just 11.6% at the 2025 local election. It breaks another record, being the lowest since 1914, with 2005 and 2013 being the closest comparable years.

    Majority size across 80 years of local elections

    Majorities secured by the winning party across 80 years of local elections.
    The Elections Centre, CC BY-ND

    A final method considers the “effective number of electoral parties” (ENEP) at the ward level. This measure calculates how many political parties made an impact on a result, meaning that a high figure shows multiple parties received significant vote share, and a low figure denotes most people voting for a single party.

    It’s no surprise that 2025 saw the highest ever average ENEP at a local election, coming in at 3.35. Only twice has this figure been above three, as in 2013 it was 3.02.

    Effective number of parties across 80 years of local elections

    The number of parties making an electoral impact in local elections across 80 years.
    The Elections Centre, CC BY-ND

    Long-term trends

    I’ve been talking about the fragmentation of British electoral politics for a long time. It was the topic of my PhD thesis, which I started writing (at least in earnest) seven years ago. It’s not a new phenomenon. Its shape, however, along with its impact, has morphed over the years. We know it’s driven by a weakened attachment to political parties and that it’s exacerbated by electoral shocks. We know that it makes elections more competitive but that it decreases turnout.



    Read more:
    Low turnout in the 2024 election may have been due to undecided voters being overwhelmed by choice

    The British electoral system is meant to produce decisive governments – at any level – and this tends to be centred around two main parties. This meant that for a long time the Conservatives and Labour received the overwhelming majority of all votes cast, subsequently also winning almost every seat. Those days appear to be over. First came the fragmented general election, and now it’s at the local level too.

    Hannah Bunting receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC).

    – ref. UK local elections delivered record-breaking fragmentation of the vote – https://theconversation.com/uk-local-elections-delivered-record-breaking-fragmentation-of-the-vote-255841

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is the biggest gaffe, blooper or blunder that a recent president has made? It may depend on what your definition of ‘is’ is

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris Lamb, Professor of Journalism, Indiana University

    Lots of presidents have said things they regret. Or most of them have. Carol Yepes/Getty Images

    President Donald Trump was asked during a press conference on April 30, 2025, about the possible impact of his tariff policies and trade war with China.

    Trump answered that American children should prepare to make sacrifices at Christmas.

    “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know,” he said, “and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”

    The New York Times reported that Trump appeared to be telling kids they would have to manage with fewer toys this year for the sake of his economic agenda.

    Jane Mayer, a reporter with The New Yorker, called it “Trump’s Marie Antoinette moment.”

    This was not the first − or last − time Trump said something that left many Americans with mouths open and heads shaking.

    Hours after his Marie Antoinette moment, Trump, whose first 100 days back in office have been characterized as chaotic and damaging to democracy, was asked during a phone interview at a town-hall broadcast on NewsNation what the biggest mistake he’d made thus far in his second presidency.

    “I don’t really believe I’ve made any mistakes,” Trump replied.

    The audience, representing a cross section of Americans, burst out laughing.

    Trump’s gaffes aren’t just part of his presidency; gaffes are part of the storied tradition of the American presidency. Some of those comments have clung to presidents and even affected history.

    Here are examples from each president over the past 50 years or so of statements that at least some of them were embarrassed by or came to regret. Each was made when the president was serving in the White House. The quotes are organized chronologically.

    Donald Trump auditions for Grinch-who-stole-Christmas role.

    Richard Nixon is a law-abiding guy

    On Nov. 17, 1973, President Richard M. Nixon, in the midst of the Watergate scandal that would end his presidency, defended himself against charges of corruption.

    “People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook,” Nixon said. “Well, I’m not a crook. I’ve earned everything I’ve got.”

    Instead of quelling the scandal, as Nixon hoped, his words produced the opposite reaction. He resigned from the presidency nine months later in August 1974.

    Gerald Ford forgets the Cold War

    Gerald Ford, Nixon’s vice president who became president after Nixon’s resignation, subsequently ran for election in 1976.

    During one of his televised debates against Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter, Ford inexplicably claimed the Soviet Union did not control Eastern Europe.

    “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe,” Ford said, “and there never will be under a Ford administration.”

    To which the moderator, New York Times editor May Frankel, said, “I’m sorry, what?”

    Ford’s remark was so outrageously incorrect that it may have contributed to his defeat in the tight presidential election.

    Gerald Ford says it’s really a Warm, not Cold, War.

    Jimmy Carter gets advice from his teen

    Carter defeated Ford and was elected in 1976. He ran for reelection against Republican nominee Ronald Reagan in 1980. During one of their debates, Carter said he sought the advice of his 13-year-old daughter, Amy, on what was the most important issue facing America.

    “She said she thought it was nuclear weaponry,” Carter said, “and the control of nuclear arms.”

    Carter tried to show that arms control was a subject that had great resonance to even 13-year-olds. Instead, it left viewers puzzled why he had inserted his daughter into the debate. A wire service story at the time summarized the response by saying that reporters covering the debate winced and others groaned.

    Jimmy Carter has a smart 13-year-old daughter.

    Ronald Reagan attacks Russia

    Reagan, a former television and movie actor who defeated Carter in the 1980 presidential election, was known as “the Great Communicator” for his eloquence.

    A well-known anti-Communist, Reagan was not always careful about what he said.

    Before a speech on Aug. 11, 1984, Reagan joked during a sound check, “I’ve signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.”

    The joke on the open mic, which was not broadcast live but leaked later, resulted in a Soviet red alert − and temporarily moved the U.S. and Soviet Union toward war.

    George H.W. Bush eats word salad

    Reagan’s successor, his vice president, George H.W. Bush, by comparison was no great communicator. His words came out of his mouth and appeared to go in separate ways.

    “I have opinions of my own, strong opinions,” Bush said, “but I don’t always agree with them.”

    Bill Clinton is or isn’t, maybe

    Democrat Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush in the 1992 presidential election.

    Clinton’s presidency was dogged with accusations of unethical behavior and extramarital affairs. Clinton, in testimony before a grand jury investigating his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky, was asked whether he was lying when he told aides that “there’s nothing going on” between him and Lewinsky.

    “It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is,” Clinton responded. “If the − if he − if ‘is’ means is and never has been, that is not − that is one thing.”

    Slate magazine said that this response may have been the “defining moment” of his presidency and, in doing so, captured his contribution to semantics. As Time magazine pointed out,
    “Until then, America hadn’t been sure there was more than one definition of ‘is.’”

    George W. Bush’s shame

    George W. Bush, the son of George H.W. Bush, succeeded Clinton in the White House. Americans learned that Bush had more in common with his father than just the same last name.

    “There’s an old saying in Tennessee − I know it’s in Texas,” Bush said, “probably in Tennessee, that says, fool me once, shame on − shame on you. Fool me − you can’t get fooled again.”

    Barack Obama strikes out

    Barack Obama, like Reagan, was known for his sense of humor. And like Reagan, Obama learned that not everything was a joking matter.

    While appearing on “The Tonight Show” with Jay Leno in 2009, Obama said he had improved his bowling by practicing at the White House bowling alley. He told Leno he had bowled a pedestrian score of 129, provoking a sarcastic response from Leno.

    Obama then made the following joke: “It’s like the Special Olympics or something.”

    Obama quickly apologized to the Special Olympics, the athletic competition for people with intellectual disabilities.

    Obama made a bad joke about the Special Olympics during an interview with Jay Leno; he quickly apologized for it.
    Mandel Ngan / AFP/Getty Images

    Joe Biden’s bad day

    Trump was first elected president in 2016 but was defeated by Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Trump and Biden faced each other again in 2024.

    During a television debate on June 27, 2024, CNN anchor Jake Tapper asked Biden why voters should trust him to solve the immigration crisis. Biden said he changed a law that allowed Trump and his administration to separate immigrant families and put children in cages.

    Biden’s train of thought then jumped the tracks.

    “And I’m going to continue to move until we get the total ban on the − the total initiative relative to what we’re going to do with more Border Patrol and more asylum officers,” Biden said.

    “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence,” Trump said, “and I don’t think he did, either.”

    The same could be said for much of what Biden said during the debate.

    Biden withdrew from the presidential race three weeks after his poor debate performance.

    Chris Lamb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is the biggest gaffe, blooper or blunder that a recent president has made? It may depend on what your definition of ‘is’ is – https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-biggest-gaffe-blooper-or-blunder-that-a-recent-president-has-made-it-may-depend-on-what-your-definition-of-is-is-255755

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What are the biggest gaffes, bloopers and blunders that recent presidents have made? It may depend on what your definition of ‘is’ is

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris Lamb, Professor of Journalism, Indiana University

    Lots of presidents have said things they regret. Or most of them have. Carol Yepes/Getty Images

    President Donald Trump was asked during a press conference on April 30, 2025, about the possible impact of his tariff policies and trade war with China.

    Trump answered that American children should prepare to make sacrifices at Christmas.

    “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know,” he said, “and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”

    The New York Times reported that Trump appeared to be telling kids they would have to manage with fewer toys this year for the sake of his economic agenda.

    Jane Mayer, a reporter with The New Yorker, called it “Trump’s Marie Antoinette moment.”

    This was not the first − or last − time Trump said something that left many Americans with mouths open and heads shaking.

    Hours after his Marie Antoinette moment, Trump, whose first 100 days back in office have been characterized as chaotic and damaging to democracy, was asked during a phone interview at a town-hall broadcast on NewsNation what the biggest mistake he’d made thus far in his second presidency.

    “I don’t really believe I’ve made any mistakes,” Trump replied.

    The audience, representing a cross section of Americans, burst out laughing.

    Trump’s gaffes aren’t just part of his presidency; gaffes are part of the storied tradition of the American presidency. Some of those comments have clung to presidents and even affected history.

    Here are examples from each president over the past 50 years or so of statements that at least some of them were embarrassed by or came to regret. Each was made when the president was serving in the White House. The quotes are organized chronologically.

    Donald Trump auditions for Grinch-who-stole-Christmas role.

    Richard Nixon is a law-abiding guy

    On Nov. 17, 1973, President Richard M. Nixon, in the midst of the Watergate scandal that would end his presidency, defended himself against charges of corruption.

    “People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook,” Nixon said. “Well, I’m not a crook. I’ve earned everything I’ve got.”

    Instead of quelling the scandal, as Nixon hoped, his words produced the opposite reaction. He resigned from the presidency nine months later in August 1974.

    Gerald Ford forgets the Cold War

    Gerald Ford, Nixon’s vice president who became president after Nixon’s resignation, subsequently ran for election in 1976.

    During one of his televised debates against Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter, Ford inexplicably claimed the Soviet Union did not control Eastern Europe.

    “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe,” Ford said, “and there never will be under a Ford administration.”

    To which the moderator, New York Times editor May Frankel, said, “I’m sorry, what?”

    Ford’s remark was so outrageously incorrect that it may have contributed to his defeat in the tight presidential election.

    Gerald Ford says it’s really a Warm, not Cold, War.

    Jimmy Carter gets advice from his teen

    Carter defeated Ford and was elected in 1976. He ran for reelection against Republican nominee Ronald Reagan in 1980. During one of their debates, Carter said he sought the advice of his 13-year-old daughter, Amy, on what was the most important issue facing America.

    “She said she thought it was nuclear weaponry,” Carter said, “and the control of nuclear arms.”

    Carter tried to show that arms control was a subject that had great resonance to even 13-year-olds. Instead, it left viewers puzzled why he had inserted his daughter into the debate. A wire service story at the time summarized the response by saying that reporters covering the debate winced and others groaned.

    Jimmy Carter has a smart 13-year-old daughter.

    Ronald Reagan attacks Russia

    Reagan, a former television and movie actor who defeated Carter in the 1980 presidential election, was known as “the Great Communicator” for his eloquence.

    A well-known anti-Communist, Reagan was not always careful about what he said.

    Before a speech on Aug. 11, 1984, Reagan joked during a sound check, “I’ve signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.”

    The joke on the open mic, which was not broadcast live but leaked later, resulted in a Soviet red alert − and temporarily moved the U.S. and Soviet Union toward war.

    George H.W. Bush eats word salad

    Reagan’s successor, his vice president, George H.W. Bush, by comparison was no great communicator. His words came out of his mouth and appeared to go in separate ways.

    “I have opinions of my own, strong opinions,” Bush said, “but I don’t always agree with them.”

    Bill Clinton is or isn’t, maybe

    Democrat Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush in the 1992 presidential election.

    Clinton’s presidency was dogged with accusations of unethical behavior and extramarital affairs. Clinton, in testimony before a grand jury investigating his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky, was asked whether he was lying when he told aides that “there’s nothing going on” between him and Lewinsky.

    “It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is,” Clinton responded. “If the − if he − if ‘is’ means is and never has been, that is not − that is one thing.”

    Slate magazine said that this response may have been the “defining moment” of his presidency and, in doing so, captured his contribution to semantics. As Time magazine pointed out,
    “Until then, America hadn’t been sure there was more than one definition of ‘is.’”

    George W. Bush’s shame

    George W. Bush, the son of George H.W. Bush, succeeded Clinton in the White House. Americans learned that Bush had more in common with his father than just the same last name.

    “There’s an old saying in Tennessee − I know it’s in Texas,” Bush said, “probably in Tennessee, that says, fool me once, shame on − shame on you. Fool me − you can’t get fooled again.”

    Barack Obama strikes out

    Barack Obama, like Reagan, was known for his sense of humor. And like Reagan, Obama learned that not everything was a joking matter.

    While appearing on “The Tonight Show” with Jay Leno in 2009, Obama said he had improved his bowling by practicing at the White House bowling alley. He told Leno he had bowled a pedestrian score of 129, provoking a sarcastic response from Leno.

    Obama then made the following joke: “It’s like the Special Olympics or something.”

    Obama quickly apologized to the Special Olympics, the athletic competition for people with intellectual disabilities.

    Obama made a bad joke about the Special Olympics during an interview with Jay Leno; he quickly apologized for it.
    Mandel Ngan / AFP/Getty Images

    Joe Biden’s bad day

    Trump was first elected president in 2016 but was defeated by Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Trump and Biden faced each other again in 2024.

    During a television debate on June 27, 2024, CNN anchor Jake Tapper asked Biden why voters should trust him to solve the immigration crisis. Biden said he changed a law that allowed Trump and his administration to separate immigrant families and put children in cages.

    Biden’s train of thought then jumped the tracks.

    “And I’m going to continue to move until we get the total ban on the − the total initiative relative to what we’re going to do with more Border Patrol and more asylum officers,” Biden said.

    “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence,” Trump said, “and I don’t think he did, either.”

    The same could be said for much of what Biden said during the debate.

    Biden withdrew from the presidential race three weeks after his poor debate performance.

    Chris Lamb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What are the biggest gaffes, bloopers and blunders that recent presidents have made? It may depend on what your definition of ‘is’ is – https://theconversation.com/what-are-the-biggest-gaffes-bloopers-and-blunders-that-recent-presidents-have-made-it-may-depend-on-what-your-definition-of-is-is-255755

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What is the stupidest thing a recent president has said? It may depend on what your definition of ‘is’ is

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris Lamb, Professor of Journalism, Indiana University

    Lots of presidents have said things they regret. Or most of them have. Carol Yepes/Getty Images

    President Donald Trump was asked during a press conference on April 30, 2025, about the possible impact of his tariff policies and trade war with China.

    Trump answered that American children should prepare to make sacrifices at Christmas.

    “Maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know,” he said, “and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally.”

    The New York Times reported that Trump appeared to be telling kids they would have to manage with fewer toys this year for the sake of his economic agenda.

    Jane Mayer, a reporter with The New Yorker, called it “Trump’s Marie Antoinette moment.”

    This was not the first − or last − time Trump said something that left many Americans with mouths open and heads shaking.

    Hours after his Marie Antoinette moment, Trump, whose first 100 days back in office have been characterized as chaotic and damaging to democracy, was asked during a phone interview at a town-hall broadcast on NewsNation what the biggest mistake he’d made thus far in his second presidency.

    “I don’t really believe I’ve made any mistakes,” Trump replied.

    The audience, representing a cross section of Americans, burst out laughing.

    Trump’s gaffes aren’t just part of his presidency; gaffes are part of the storied tradition of the American presidency. Some of those comments have clung to presidents and even affected history.

    Here are examples from each president over the past 50 years or so of statements that at least some of them were embarrassed by or came to regret. Each was made when the president was serving in the White House. The quotes are organized chronologically.

    Donald Trump auditions for Grinch-who-stole-Christmas role.

    Richard Nixon is a law-abiding guy

    On Nov. 17, 1973, President Richard M. Nixon, in the midst of the Watergate scandal that would end his presidency, defended himself against charges of corruption.

    “People have got to know whether or not their president is a crook,” Nixon said. “Well, I’m not a crook. I’ve earned everything I’ve got.”

    Instead of quelling the scandal, as Nixon hoped, his words produced the opposite reaction. He resigned from the presidency nine months later in August 1974.

    Gerald Ford forgets the Cold War

    Gerald Ford, Nixon’s vice president who became president after Nixon’s resignation, subsequently ran for election in 1976.

    During one of his televised debates against Democratic nominee Jimmy Carter, Ford inexplicably claimed the Soviet Union did not control Eastern Europe.

    “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe,” Ford said, “and there never will be under a Ford administration.”

    To which the moderator, New York Times editor May Frankel, said, “I’m sorry, what?”

    Ford’s remark was so outrageously incorrect that it may have contributed to his defeat in the tight presidential election.

    Gerald Ford says it’s really a Warm, not Cold, War.

    Jimmy Carter gets advice from his teen

    Carter defeated Ford and was elected in 1976. He ran for reelection against Republican nominee Ronald Reagan in 1980. During one of their debates, Carter said he sought the advice of his 13-year-old daughter, Amy, on what was the most important issue facing America.

    “She said she thought it was nuclear weaponry,” Carter said, “and the control of nuclear arms.”

    Carter tried to show that arms control was a subject that had great resonance to even 13-year-olds. Instead, it left viewers puzzled why he had inserted his daughter into the debate. A wire service story at the time summarized the response by saying that reporters covering the debate winced and others groaned.

    Jimmy Carter has a smart 13-year-old daughter.

    Ronald Reagan attacks Russia

    Reagan, a former television and movie actor who defeated Carter in the 1980 presidential election, was known as “the Great Communicator” for his eloquence.

    A well-known anti-Communist, Reagan was not always careful about what he said.

    Before a speech on Aug. 11, 1984, Reagan joked during a sound check, “I’ve signed legislation that will outlaw Russia forever. We begin bombing in five minutes.”

    The joke on the open mic, which was not broadcast live but leaked later, resulted in a Soviet red alert − and temporarily moved the U.S. and Soviet Union toward war.

    George H.W. Bush eats word salad

    Reagan’s successor, his vice president, George H.W. Bush, by comparison was no great communicator. His words came out of his mouth and appeared to go in separate ways.

    “I have opinions of my own, strong opinions,” Bush said, “but I don’t always agree with them.”

    Bill Clinton is or isn’t, maybe

    Democrat Bill Clinton defeated George H.W. Bush in the 1992 presidential election.

    Clinton’s presidency was dogged with accusations of unethical behavior and extramarital affairs. Clinton, in testimony before a grand jury investigating his affair with White House intern Monica Lewinsky, was asked whether he was lying when he told aides that “there’s nothing going on” between him and Lewinsky.

    “It depends on what the meaning of the word ‘is’ is,” Clinton responded. “If the − if he − if ‘is’ means is and never has been, that is not − that is one thing.”

    Slate magazine said that this response may have been the “defining moment” of his presidency and, in doing so, captured his contribution to semantics. As Time magazine pointed out,
    “Until then, America hadn’t been sure there was more than one definition of ‘is.’”

    George W. Bush’s shame

    George W. Bush, the son of George H.W. Bush, succeeded Clinton in the White House. Americans learned that Bush had more in common with his father than just the same last name.

    “There’s an old saying in Tennessee − I know it’s in Texas,” Bush said, “probably in Tennessee, that says, fool me once, shame on − shame on you. Fool me − you can’t get fooled again.”

    Barack Obama strikes out

    Barack Obama, like Reagan, was known for his sense of humor. And like Reagan, Obama learned that not everything was a joking matter.

    While appearing on “The Tonight Show” with Jay Leno in 2009, Obama said he had improved his bowling by practicing at the White House bowling alley. He told Leno he had bowled a pedestrian score of 129, provoking a sarcastic response from Leno.

    Obama then made the following joke: “It’s like the Special Olympics or something.”

    Obama quickly apologized to the Special Olympics, the athletic competition for people with intellectual disabilities.

    Obama made a bad joke about the Special Olympics during an interview with Jay Leno; he quickly apologized for it.
    Mandel Ngan / AFP/Getty Images

    Joe Biden’s bad day

    Trump was first elected president in 2016 but was defeated by Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Trump and Biden faced each other again in 2024.

    During a television debate on June 27, 2024, CNN anchor Jake Tapper asked Biden why voters should trust him to solve the immigration crisis. Biden said he changed a law that allowed Trump and his administration to separate immigrant families and put children in cages.

    Biden’s train of thought then jumped the tracks.

    “And I’m going to continue to move until we get the total ban on the − the total initiative relative to what we’re going to do with more Border Patrol and more asylum officers,” Biden said.

    “I really don’t know what he said at the end of that sentence,” Trump said, “and I don’t think he did, either.”

    The same could be said for much of what Biden said during the debate.

    Biden withdrew from the presidential race three weeks after his poor debate performance.

    Chris Lamb does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is the stupidest thing a recent president has said? It may depend on what your definition of ‘is’ is – https://theconversation.com/what-is-the-stupidest-thing-a-recent-president-has-said-it-may-depend-on-what-your-definition-of-is-is-255755

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Britain’s nuclear future? What small reactors, fusion and ‘Big Carl’ mean for net zero

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tomas Martin, Associate Professor in Materials Physics, University of Bristol

    Former UK prime minister Tony Blair recently argued nuclear power is an “essential part of the answer” to net zero. Writing in the foreword of a report by his thinktank, the Tony Blair Institute, he claimed small modular nuclear reactors, nuclear fusion and other advanced technologies can help lower the emissions of the electricity sector.

    It’s worth looking at what these technologies involve, and how far off the UK is from integrating them into its electricity system. But we should first recognise great progress in the electricity sector in the past 15 years, and how dramatic reductions in the cost of wind and solar have led to huge increases in renewable capacity across the globe.

    The UK completely removed all coal-fired power in 2024, largely replaced by offshore wind and gas. However, relying on any one technology makes an electricity grid less resilient, and nuclear is zero-carbon and can help stabilise the grid when so much electricity comes from intermittent renewables.

    Historically, nuclear has contributed around 15% to 25% of the UK’s electricity supply, however most reactors have closed or are approaching the end of their life. The fleet of 26 Magnox reactors built in the 1960s finished operation by 2015 and are now being decommissioned.

    Over the past three years three other sites have also closed, with the remainder currently anticipated to run until 2028-2030. At this point, what was once 41 reactors will have shrunk to just Sizewell B, a power plant operational on the Suffolk coast since 1995.

    Replacing this drop in electricity production must be a big priority. The construction of two new reactors at Hinkley Point C in south-west England started in 2016 but won’t finish until at least 2029. Significant planning has taken place for an identical site at Sizewell C in Suffolk, and a final decision is expected shortly.

    The pressurised water reactor design at these two sites produces significantly more electricity than past UK designs, and these four reactors will together produce 6.4GW of electricity, replacing all 14 of the reactors that are retiring.

    Supporting the construction of new reactors at Hinkley Point and Sizewell is essential for maintaining the UK’s electricity supply, but basically returns the country to the status quo. Beyond, there are number of exciting new developments.

    SMRs

    Small modular reactors (SMRs) and advanced modular reactors (AMRs) have frustratingly similar names, but have become the main way to categorise the two options. The “small” in SMRs is because they produce between 30MW and 300MW of electricity, compared to 1,600MW for each reactor at Hinkley Point C.

    The “modular” is driven by a desire to produce multiple identical reactors at once in a factory, rather than constructing on site. This can dramatically reduce manufacturing and installation time, potentially making them much cheaper.

    A combination of new SMRs and one or two new Hinkley C-sized reactors would enable UK nuclear capacity to expand beyond the status quo in the 2030s, further reducing the carbon emissions of the electricity sector.

    The next generation

    Further into the future, exciting research is taking place on the next “generation IV” nuclear designs: advanced modular reactors (AMRs).

    Some AMRs can run at much higher temperatures, which could help decarbonise tricky industries like steelmaking or produce hydrogen for energy storage or low-carbon plane fuel. Some designs can even reuse nuclear waste, reducing how long it needs to be stored safely.

    Even further in the future, nuclear fusion – the same process that powers the sun – could offer clean electricity without producing long-lasting radioactive waste. The UK is supporting this by building a demonstration fusion plant called STEP which aims to start operating by 2040.

    One of the biggest criticisms of nuclear is the cost. Building a nuclear plant is a massive project that can take many years or even decades. Hinkley Point C, for example, has up to 10,000 workers and more than 100 cranes on site, including the world’s biggest crane “Big Carl”.

    Because plants take so long to build, the money is borrowed years before any electricity is generated, gathering significant interest in the meantime. These interest payments can ultimately make up as much as two-thirds of the total cost.

    A new funding model, similar to that used for big infrastructure projects like Crossrail, should lower costs.

    But once a nuclear plant is built and paid off, it’s one of the cheapest ways to generate electricity – especially as modern reactors can run for up to 80 years. That’s why government support to cover upfront construction costs can pay off in the long run.

    The previous UK government ambition was to build 24GW of new nuclear power by 2050 – about four times more than the country has today. However, the current government has not confirmed it will stick to this target.

    To get there, the UK would need to approve several new nuclear projects every few years starting in 2030, which will require major investment in skills, resources and collaborations.

    We urgently need to decarbonise our energy system, and future nuclear reactors can play an important role in that alongside renewables and other technologies.

    Tomas Martin receives funding from EDF and the Royal Academy of Engineering as part of the Royal Academy of Engineering Senior Research Fellowship scheme. His research work includes projects sponsored by EDF, UKAEA and UKNNL.

    – ref. Britain’s nuclear future? What small reactors, fusion and ‘Big Carl’ mean for net zero – https://theconversation.com/britains-nuclear-future-what-small-reactors-fusion-and-big-carl-mean-for-net-zero-255797

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Want to walk the Camino de Santiago pilgrimage? Leave your phone at home

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Una Cunningham, Professor emerita, Department of Teaching and Learning, Stockholm University

    The yellow shell symbol that marks the path of the Camino de Santiago. Armando Oliveira/Shutterstock

    Pilgrimage offers a chance to disengage from the everyday and think deeply about what is important. Leaving home and spending some time on the move with no concerns other than putting one foot in front of the other can be life-changing.

    Pilgrimage has been described as a liminal experience, which means you are neither at home nor at your destination, caught between two existential levels. Many people return home feeling transformed.

    Since the mid-1990s, the numbers of people walking the Camino de Santiago pilgrimage route to what the faithful believe to be the tomb of Saint James the Apostle in northwestern Spain have rocketed. And they continue to rise, probably approaching the numbers who made the pilgrimage in the middle ages, when up to 2 million people are believed to have walked each year.

    Medieval pilgrims prepared for pilgrimage by setting their financial and spiritual affairs in order: writing a will and going to confession. Pilgrimage was seen as a rite of passage, or an individual quest where social status and networks were traded for anonymity and poverty in constant mobility. Arrival conveyed salvation, or perhaps a cure or a mystical revelation.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Contemporary, postsecular pilgrimage on the Camino de Santiago is often undertaken at turning points in the pilgrim’s life, for psycho-existential motives. Pilgrimage allows you to take time out from your life. Authenticity and simplicity are valued and will show you that you actually need very little. Slow mobility facilitates introspection and may have transformative effects.

    At the same time, you can prepare for a pilgrimage as for any other activity, using the digital tools at your fingertips to gather information from official apps and online communities, possibly to learn some Spanish, and to make decisions in the planning of the route, accommodation, equipment and training. It is possible to arrange everything in advance, but you risk becoming hyper-informed, losing the opportunities for discovery, wonder and surprise that are part of pilgrimage.

    Technology during your pilgrimage

    I research online Camino forums. They are divided on the use of technology (such as smartphones) while actually on pilgrimage.

    Unbroken digital interaction with family and friends at home will thwart some of the goals of your journey. Instead of being fully in the moment you will remain socially present in a symbolic world somewhere else, with all the worries of that world close at hand.

    You’ll also miss opportunities to trust your intuition, and the community of pilgrims you meet on the Camino. You don’t need a map. The trail is blazed with yellow arrows and stylised scallop shells. Without a phone you can plan your next day’s walk using a guidebook and if you want to book a bed for the next day, the albergue (pilgrim hostel) staff can help.

    The Camino path is well signposted.
    Soloviova Liudmyla/Shutterstock

    Many see a Camino pilgrimage as an opportunity for a digital detox and attempt to at least regulate the amount of time spent with a smartphone. But even if you keep your phone in your backpack during the day and concentrate tech time to the evening, you will be interrupting the separation from your life at home that is necessary if your pilgrimage is to be a liminal experience. When you catch up on news, email and family, you step back into the everyday.

    Live blogging and vlogging from the Camino is encouraged by prospective pilgrims lurking in the Camino forums. Those who have already completed one or more Caminos comment to relate and vicariously relive their own Camino experiences. Live turn-by-turn reports are also appreciated by those undertaking virtual pilgrimage.

    After your return home you can join the ranks of veterans who retell their pilgrimage to the online community and contribute with advice to prospective pilgrims. But doing this while on the Camino focuses your attention to other people and places rather than the here and now.

    The liminal experience that was supposed to bring the pilgrim to insight does not always happen, due, at least partly, to digital distraction and incomplete extraction from the everyday environment. In the words of Camino anthropologist Nancy Frey, use the Camino as a chance for disconnection. If you must take a phone, keep it turned off in your backpack – strictly for emergencies.

    Una Cunningham does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Want to walk the Camino de Santiago pilgrimage? Leave your phone at home – https://theconversation.com/want-to-walk-the-camino-de-santiago-pilgrimage-leave-your-phone-at-home-252676

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can drinking champagne reduce your risk of sudden cardiac arrest? Here’s why it’s only a small part of the story

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David C. Gaze, Senior Lecturer in Chemical Pathology, University of Westminster

    Lomb/Shutterstock

    “My only regret in life is that I didn’t drink enough champagne,” the English economist and philosopher John Maynard Keynes (1883–1946) is reported to have said. As it turns out, there may be a surprising ounce of truth to that quote.

    Picture this: a glass of champagne – bubbly, crisp and, for many, reserved for toasts and celebrations. Now imagine it being mentioned in the same sentence as a way to help prevent sudden cardiac arrest: a condition where the heart abruptly stops beating, killing tens of thousands each year, often without warning. Sounds too good to be true, right?

    Yet, a Canadian study has uncovered a curious link. Using data from over half a million people in the health research database the UK Biobank, researchers found that those who consumed moderate amounts of white wine or champagne had a lower risk of experiencing sudden cardiac arrest. Surprising, especially given the widely held belief that red wine, not white, is what benefits the heart.

    To rule out coincidence, the researchers double-checked their findings using genetic data – and the connection seemed to hold firm. This suggests there might be more to the story than chance alone.

    The study didn’t stop at wine. It explored more than 100 lifestyle and environmental factors tied to sudden cardiac arrest, including diet, exercise, air pollution, emotional wellbeing, body composition and education levels – all of which have been independently associated with risk. The conclusion? Up to 63% of sudden cardiac arrest cases could potentially be prevented by addressing these risk factors.

    Among all the protective factors identified, a few stood out: fruit consumption, regular computer use (yes, really) and moderate drinking of white wine or champagne were all linked to a reduced risk of sudden cardiac arrest. Why? That remains uncertain.

    One theory is that white wine contains antioxidants that may support heart health. Another possibility is that people who drink these types of beverages may also be more affluent and more likely to engage in other healthy behaviour, such as eating well, exercising regularly – and have access to better healthcare.



    Read more:
    Wealth, wellness and wellbeing: why healthier ageing isn’t just about personal choices

    But before you pop a cork in celebration, a word of caution: alcohol remains a complex and often contradictory player in heart health. Other large-scale studies suggest a U-shaped relationship between alcohol and cardiovascular disease. Non-drinkers may have a certain level of risk, moderate drinkers of one glass of wine a day may see some benefit, but heavy drinking sharply increases the risk of high blood pressure, stroke and heart failure.

    One observational study involving over 400,000 participants even found that moderate drinking could raise the risk of arrhythmias, which in some cases can lead to sudden death.

    So while champagne may offer a hopeful glimmer, it’s no magic bullet. The study’s broader message was clear: it’s the overall lifestyle that matters most. Better sleep, regular physical activity and a balanced diet significantly reduced the risk of sudden cardiac arrest – and could prevent nearly one in five cases.

    On the flip side, obesity, high blood pressure and chronic stress were among the strongest risk factors, along with lower education levels and exposure to air pollution. These findings underscore that preventing sudden cardiac arrest isn’t just about personal habits: it’s also about the environments we live in and the policies that shape them. Cleaner air, better education and easier access to nutritious food could all play a role.

    Sudden cardiac arrest is not entirely random. Many of the contributing factors are within our control. Managing stress, staying active, maintaining a healthy weight, getting quality sleep – and yes, perhaps enjoying the occasional glass of white wine – can all help. But the real power lies in stacking small, healthy choices over time. Prevention is rarely about a single change; it’s about the cumulative effect of many.

    And in case you were wondering: Keynes suffered a series of heart attacks in 1946, beginning during negotiations for the Anglo-American loan in Savannah, Georgia. He described the process as “absolute hell”. A few weeks after returning to his farmhouse in Firle, East Sussex, he died of a heart attack at the age of 62.

    Maybe he was right about drinking more champagne after all.

    David C. Gaze does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can drinking champagne reduce your risk of sudden cardiac arrest? Here’s why it’s only a small part of the story – https://theconversation.com/can-drinking-champagne-reduce-your-risk-of-sudden-cardiac-arrest-heres-why-its-only-a-small-part-of-the-story-255708

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: From vigorous brushing to clear aligners, here’s what might be causing your gums to recede

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Flavio Pisani, Senior Clinical Lecturer in Periodontology, School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Central Lancashire

    sruilk/Shutterstock

    One of the most common concerns patients bring to the dental chair is receding gums. Often, the immediate assumption is: “I must have gum disease.” While this can be true, gum recession isn’t always a clear-cut sign of disease. In fact, many people don’t notice any problem until they begin to experience tooth sensitivity to cold, hot, or sweet foods – or they notice their smile changing, with more visible tooth surfaces or small gaps appearing between the teeth.

    Dentists often respond to this concern with a quick fix: applying white composite fillings near the gum line. While this may help with sensitivity in the short term, it can make the problem worse over time by contributing to further gum recession.

    Gum disease – also known as periodontitis – is a serious condition. Symptoms such as bleeding when brushing, drifting teeth, persistent bad breath, or tooth mobility should always be investigated. However, gum recession can have other causes, too.

    Even ex-fiances of Jennifer Lopez can develop gum disease.

    Perhaps surprisingly, one of the biggest culprits behind receding gums is actually overzealous brushing. Using too much force or brushing with the wrong tools – like a hard-bristled toothbrush – can gradually wear away gum tissue. Electric toothbrushes can help by reducing pressure, especially newer models that light up when you brush too hard. But in reality, many people focus more on how long they brush than how they brush. Even the smart apps that pair with these toothbrushes usually highlight brushing time in each area, rather than pressure applied.

    That’s why teaching proper brushing technique is so important. The best method will vary depending on a patient’s individual tooth and gum structure – and it should always aim to remove plaque effectively while using gentle, consistent pressure. If someone is doing well with a manual toothbrush and has a solid technique, there’s no reason to switch to an electric one.

    Another growing cause of gum recession is cosmetic tooth straightening with clear aligners. While aligners are effective for aligning teeth quickly, they’re often paired with fixed retainers – wires bonded behind the teeth to hold them in place. Over time, this can cause the roots to drift outside the natural bone housing of the jaw, resulting in gum tissue shrinking away from the teeth.

    Solutions

    The good news is that there are solutions. Every case is unique, but with the right knowledge and techniques, dentists can help patients restore both gum health and appearance.

    For cases where the gum tissue has receded significantly, there are several surgical options depending on the patient’s needs and goals.

    For functional concerns, a technique called the free gingival graft is commonly used. This involves transplanting a thin layer of tissue – usually taken from the roof of the mouth (the palate) – to create a band of tough, pink gum around the base of the teeth. This helps patients brush comfortably without irritating the soft tissue of the gum. While this procedure can slightly reduce recession, the main goal is improving durability and comfort, not aesthetics. The graft is often visibly different in colour and texture.

    For cosmetic concerns, more advanced “plastic surgery” techniques are available. One popular method involves carefully lifting the local gum tissue, inserting a tissue graft beneath it (again, typically taken from the palate), and stitching it in place. This “sandwich” approach thickens the gums and gives them a healthier appearance. The graft acts as a scaffold for the existing gum tissue to grow back over, improving both form and function.

    These procedures are safe, effective and minimally invasive. They’re typically performed under local anaesthetic in a dental practice and require only a few days of recovery with over-the-counter pain relief. For anxious patients, conscious sedation can also be used – a technique where medications are used to relax a patient during a medical procedure, allowing them to remain awake and alert while feeling less nervous and potentially less aware of what’s happening.

    Long-term studies show these techniques to be reliable, with a success rate of up to 93% and minimal relapse even five years after surgery.

    The most important step in managing gum recession is a comprehensive patient assessment. While cosmetic concerns matter, the real priority is making sure gum disease isn’t being overlooked. Periodontitis is a silent and progressive condition, leading to chronic inflammation, bone loss and eventually tooth loss.

    More importantly, research links periodontal disease to systemic health conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease and even dementia. Protecting our gums isn’t just about maintaining a nice smile – it’s about safeguarding our overall health.

    Flavio Pisani does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. From vigorous brushing to clear aligners, here’s what might be causing your gums to recede – https://theconversation.com/from-vigorous-brushing-to-clear-aligners-heres-what-might-be-causing-your-gums-to-recede-255123

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who gets to be called an astronaut? Private space travel has reignited debate over use of prestigious title

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ian Whittaker, Senior Lecturer in Physics, Nottingham Trent University

    Copyright: Blue Origin

    The recent all-women spaceflight carried out on Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin vehicle has raised discussion of who gets to be called an astronaut. Sean Duffy, Donald Trump’s transportation secretary, disputed the astronaut title given to those on the flight, including singer Katy Perry and journalist Gayle King.

    The term astronaut was only rarely disputed until the first “celebrity” suborbital flight in 2021. In the 1960s, pilots flying the experimental, rocket-powered X-15 jet were awarded astronaut status by the US Air Force if they flew above 50 miles (80km).

    Sir Richard Branson’s 2021 flight aboard his Virgin Galactic vehicle reached 53 miles (85km) – an altitude recognised by some experts as being within outer space. Bezos followed a few days later, travelling on his Blue Origin New Shepard vehicle. This flight reached about 68 miles (106km) in altitude.

    Bezos has focused on reaching an altitude of about 62.1 miles (100km), one proposed boundary of space known as the Kármán line, named after the early 20th-century polymath Theodore von Kármán.

    A 2021 post on social media by Bezos’s Blue Origin capitalised on the fact that his New Shepard vehicle reached the higher boundary. The suggestion from the post was that those who travelled to the lower boundary on rival Virgin Galactic flights could have their “space traveller” status questioned, whereas those who travelled with Blue Origin could not.

    This particular post did not mention the question of who is an “astronaut”. However, this is how Blue Origin currently describes those who travel on New Shepard.

    Indeed, some definitions of “astronaut” simply state that it is a person who has been to space. Therefore, another implication of the post – intentional or not – might be that those who travel with Bezos’s company are more eligible for such a designation than those who have been to lower altitudes.

    While Blue Origin calls the Kármán line an “internationally recognised boundary” of space, it is far from universally accepted. Theodore von Kármán wanted to separate out aeronautics (the science of flying aircraft) and astronautics (the science of space travel).

    As a byproduct, he calculated the maximum altitude that an aircraft could go without reaching orbital velocity (where it would start orbiting the Earth) to be around 52 miles (84km).

    A researcher and associate of von Kármán called Andrew Haley was interested in space law. He established von Kármán’s calculation as the boundary of space. This was later raised to 62.1 miles (100km) by the world governing body for air sports, the Fédération Aéronautique Internationale.

    The Kármán line has very little scientific rationale, however. If you ask a geologist, an atmospheric scientist and a space physics expert where the definition of space is, you will get vastly different answers.

    For example, as somebody who specialises in magnetospheric physics and solar influence, I would say space properly starts at the plasmapause. This is a boundary around the Earth that’s based on differences in the charged particles that exist on either side of the division. The plasmapause sits at an altitude of around 35,000 miles (57,000km).

    Who is an astronaut?

    The recent Blue Origin flight understandably made a strong positive impression on the passengers. Gayle King compared the flight to the historic launch in 1961 that made Nasa astronaut Alan Shepard the first American in space.

    The effusive reactions from the passengers, along with King’s and Blue Origin’s use of the term “astronaut” to describe the team members prompted a backlash online. King noted that men on similar flights hadn’t been subjected to such criticism, and Katy Perry says she felt “battered and bruised” by the reaction.

    Among the critics was the US transport secretary, Sean Duffy, who stated that the participants could not be astronauts as they failed to meet the FAA astronaut criteria. The FAA requirements for an astronaut are for them to be a member of crew, to contribute to spaceflight safety and to demonstrate activities essential to public safety. Their minimum altitude for “space” is the 50 mile (80km) limit.

    As New Shepard is fully automated, none of the passengers could really be considered “crew members”. Similarly, if you buy a ticket on a plane, you are not crew unless employed by the airline to do a job.

    Would it be different if private space travellers were able to carry out scientific research during their journey? This might make them more than just passengers and potentially qualify them for the “crew” designation. Blue Origin and Virgin Galactic are actually not suited for any sort of weightlessness research. Passengers experience around 3-4 minutes of weightlessness.

    By contrast, a flight on the Airbus A310 zero-G plane gives 25-30 seconds of weightlessness. When this is repeated 25-30 times, you get between 10 and 15 minutes of weightlessness in total. This avenue for carrying out research in microgravity is also open to anybody with a sensible scientific idea to test rather than just members of the rich elite.

    Why it matters

    Does it matter what space travellers actually call themselves? The FAA designation of “astronaut” is not the only one. Some dictionary definitions simply define an astronaut as a person trained to go into space or, as mentioned, a person who has flown in space. The passengers on Blue Origin’s New Shepard flights would probably qualify under both of these definitions.

    But let’s consider the legal dimension. Star Trek actor William Shatner flew with Blue Origin on a New Shepard vehicle in 2021. If Shatner had experienced a health-related incident during the flight, who would have been at fault?

    If Shatner was an “astronaut”, could it be argued that he held a greater level of responsibility for any adverse effects from the flight? If he was simply a passenger, might the company share more responsibility?

    Thankfully, such a situation has not yet occurred, which means that any associated legal arguments remain hypothetical. But as more paying passengers travel on flights to space, the chances of adverse incidents increase.

    Ultimately, everyone can have an opinion about whether just going into space – wherever the boundary may lie – makes you an astronaut. But there may be more to consider than a nice title.

    Ian Whittaker does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who gets to be called an astronaut? Private space travel has reignited debate over use of prestigious title – https://theconversation.com/who-gets-to-be-called-an-astronaut-private-space-travel-has-reignited-debate-over-use-of-prestigious-title-255630

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can vitamin D help prevent colorectal cancer? The science is promising – but not straightforward

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Justin Stebbing, Professor of Biomedical Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University

    Yulia Furman/Shutterstock

    The potential role of vitamin D in preventing and treating colorectal cancer (CRC) has attracted growing research interest – especially as CRC rates are rising, particularly among younger adults. This isn’t a new area of study. Low vitamin D levels have long been linked to a higher risk of developing colorectal cancer.

    One large study involving over 12,000 participants found that people with low blood levels of vitamin D had a 31% greater risk of developing CRC compared to those with higher levels. Similarly, another study reported a 25% lower CRC risk among individuals with high dietary vitamin D intake.

    Data from the Nurses’ Health Study – a long-term investigation of American nurses – showed that women with the highest vitamin D intake had a 58% lower risk of developing colorectal cancer compared to those with the lowest intake.

    Now, a review highlights vitamin D’s promise in colorectal cancer prevention and treatment – but also underscores the complexity and contradictions in current research.

    While observational data, which follow people’s use of vitamin D, and mechanistic studies, to investigate how vitamin D works in the laboratory, suggest protective effects, this isn’t confirmed by larger trials.

    In fact, randomised controlled trials (RCTs), in which some people receive vitamin D and others don’t, the gold standard by which treatments are judged, reveal inconsistent outcomes. This highlights the need for a balanced approach to its integration into public health strategies.

    Vitamin D is synthesised in the skin in response to sunlight and exerts its biological effects through vitamin D receptors (VDRs) found throughout the body, including in colon tissue. When activated, these receptors help regulate gene activity related to inflammation, immune response and cell growth – processes central to cancer development and progression.

    Preclinical studies have shown that the active form of vitamin D (calcitriol) can suppress inflammation, boost immune surveillance (the immune system’s ability to detect abnormal cells), inhibit tumour blood vessel growth and regulate cell division – a key factor in cancer development, as demonstrated in my recent research.

    Epidemiological studies, which track health outcomes across large populations over time, consistently find that people with higher blood levels of vitamin D have a lower risk of developing CRC. This paints a hopeful picture, suggesting that something as simple as getting more vitamin D – via sun exposure, diet, or supplements – could lower cancer risk.

    But the story gets more complicated.

    Mixed results

    When it comes to medical decision-making, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard. These studies randomly assign participants to receive either a treatment (like vitamin D) or a placebo, helping eliminate bias and isolate cause-and-effect relationships.

    Unfortunately, RCTs on vitamin D and CRC have produced mixed results.

    For example, the VITAL trial – a major RCT involving over 25,000 participants – found no significant reduction in overall colorectal cancer incidence with 2,000 IU/day of vitamin D supplementation over several years.

    However, a meta-analysis of seven RCTs did show a 30% improvement in CRC survival rates with vitamin D supplements, suggesting potential benefits later in the disease course rather than for prevention.

    On the other hand, the Vitamin D/Calcium Polyp Prevention Trial found no reduction in the recurrence of adenomas (pre-cancerous growths) with supplementation, raising questions about who benefits most, and at what dosage.

    Adding to the uncertainty is the question of causation. Does low vitamin D contribute to cancer development? Or does the onset of cancer reduce vitamin D levels in the body? It’s also possible that the observed benefits are partly due to increased sunlight exposure, which itself may have independent protective effects.

    The big picture

    These discrepancies highlight the importance of considering the “totality of evidence” – treating each study as one piece of a larger puzzle.

    The biologic plausibility is there. Observational and mechanistic studies suggest a meaningful link between vitamin D and lower CRC risk. But the clinical evidence isn’t yet strong enough to recommend vitamin D as a standalone prevention or treatment strategy.

    That said, maintaining sufficient vitamin D levels – at least 30 ng/mL – is a low-risk, cost-effective health measure. And when combined with other strategies like regular screening, a healthy diet, physical activity, and personalised care, vitamin D could still play a valuable role in overall cancer prevention.

    Vitamin D is not a miracle cure – but it is part of a much broader picture. Its role in colorectal cancer is promising but still being defined. While it’s not time to rely on supplements alone, ensuring adequate vitamin D levels – through sun exposure, diet, or supplements – remains a smart choice for your health.

    Colorectal cancer is a complex disease, and tackling it requires an equally nuanced approach. For now, that means focusing on evidence-based lifestyle changes, regular screenings, and staying informed as new research unfolds.

    Justin Stebbing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can vitamin D help prevent colorectal cancer? The science is promising – but not straightforward – https://theconversation.com/can-vitamin-d-help-prevent-colorectal-cancer-the-science-is-promising-but-not-straightforward-255025

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Trump’s tariffs could hit developing economies – even those not involved in the trade war

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Selim Raihan, Professor of Economics, University of Dhaka

    The world has witnessed a resurgence of protectionism since Donald Trump returned to the White House. So-called “reciprocal” tariffs, imposed on all US trading partners at varying degrees based on the tax they charge on American goods, have been one of the hallmark features of Trump’s economic policy. They aim to correct what he perceives as “unfair” trade practices.

    In early April, Trump said many countries had “ripped us off left and right” and declared “now it’s our turn to do the ripping”. His administration swiftly imposed sweeping tariff increases, with some of the highest rates falling on poorer countries like Laos and Lesotho.

    A 90-day suspension was eventually made for most of these tariffs, and Trump has now softened duties on imported cars and car parts. But the danger remains high. No one can be certain that the initial reciprocal tariffs will not be reinstated.

    Developing countries, many of which rely heavily on the export of manufactured goods to the US, will be keeping a keen eye on what happens next.

    We employed the Global Trade Analysis Project model to analyse the possible effects of US tariffs on trade and economic growth. The model captures interactions and feedback among economic agents (households, firms and governments), markets, sectors and regions in the world economy.

    It can be used to forecast the effect of trade reforms on various indicators such as production, welfare, income, prices and trade flows. Based on certain assumptions, the changes are likely to be seen in between two and three years.

    We used simulations to compute the effects of Trump’s tariff regime under two alternative scenarios. In the first, which reflects the global trade situation at the time of writing, baseline tariffs are levied on all countries at 10%. The duties are 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico, and 145% on China. Retaliatory duties by China on US goods are set at 125%.

    In the second, across-the-board reciprocal tariffs are imposed on countries at the levels Trump declared in his initial plan on April 2. This is in addition to the 145% tariff on Chinese goods, 25% on those from Canada and Mexico and a 125% duty by China on imports from the US.

    Winners and losers

    As shown by the graph below, our simulations suggest the US tariff regime will distort export patterns worldwide. The most painful effects will fall on China and the US itself.

    Chinese exports would shrink by 10.8% in the first scenario and 10.9% in the second. The US would suffer an even larger loss of 11.7% and 14.9%, respectively.

    The model suggests that other major US trading partners such as Canada and Mexico would also experience deep export declines of over 5% in both scenarios. Roughly 75% of Canada’s exports head south towards the US.

    Among the developing Asian economies, Nepal, Pakistan and the Philippines would experience substantial export declines. This is particularly the case in the second scenario, with losses ranging from 2% to 4.4%. These countries are particularly vulnerable to reciprocal tariffs because they rely heavily on exports and are deeply tied to global supply and production chains.

    Bangladesh, Cambodia, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Vietnam may benefit in the first scenario due to a possible diversion of trade. These countries, which are known for having some of the lowest labour costs in the world, offer cheap alternatives for goods that US importers would previously have sourced from China.

    But they are expected to lose the majority of these benefits in the second scenario under a full reciprocal tariff regime. The exceptions are Cambodia and Indonesia, which our simulations suggest will retain positive export growth – albeit reduced to 1.6% from 4% for Cambodia and unchanged at 0.7% for Indonesia.

    This may be because Cambodia and Indonesia have slightly more diversified export baskets than countries like Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, and trade with more partners. However, these gains are likely to be short lived if global uncertainties continue.

    Major advanced economies such as Japan, the UK and EU will lose exports by a moderate amount. And the Middle East, north Africa, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America (excluding Brazil) will see similar declines.

    The second graph presents a concerning picture of how trade disruption could affect GDP, which economists use to measure the size of a country’s economy. The US and China are again set to suffer the steepest GDP losses, of 0.3% in the US and 1.9% in China under the second scenario. This confirms the well-established economic consensus that trade wars are mutually destructive.

    Under the second scenario, most emerging and developing economies would suffer modest GDP declines between 0.3% and 1%. Thailand (1%), Malaysia (0.9%), Brazil (0.9%) and Vietnam (0.9%) are the worst hit countries in this category.

    Like most of the developing countries in Asia, which are not directly involved in the trade war, many countries in Latin America, the Middle East, north Africa and sub-Saharan Africa would still face hits to their GDP. This underscores the global interconnectedness of trade and investment flows.

    The simulations confirm what economists have been asserting for years: trade wars do not have winners. While some countries do benefit in the short term by way of trade diversion, the total losses are high and developing countries are not immune from the damage.

    However, there are strategies developing countries can employ to improve their resilience to global trade disruptions. This includes diversifying their export markets by, for example, establishing stronger trade ties in regional blocs.

    One example is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, a free trade agreement between the Asia-Pacific nations of Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Such ties can be strengthened further.

    Developing countries should also use this turbulent period to streamline customs, upgrade port infrastructure and improve logistics. This can reduce costs, enhance competitiveness and help developing economies engage more deeply in international trade.

    No country is exempt from disruptions to global trade. But those with diversified economies, strong regional linkages and resilient trade infrastructure will weather the turbulence more successfully.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Trump’s tariffs could hit developing economies – even those not involved in the trade war – https://theconversation.com/how-trumps-tariffs-could-hit-developing-economies-even-those-not-involved-in-the-trade-war-255435

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Glitter’s sparkle hides a darker side – it can change the chemistry of our oceans

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Juan Diego Rodriguez-Blanco, Ussher Associate Professor in Nanomineralogy, Trinity College Dublin

    Glitter is festive and fun – a favourite for decorations, makeup and art projects. But while it may look harmless, beautiful even, glitter’s sparkle hides a darker side. Those shimmering specks often end up far from party tables and greeting cards. You can even spot them glinting on beaches, washed in with the tide.

    In our recent research, we discovered that glitter – specifically, the kind made from a common plastic polymer called polyethylene terephthalate (PET) – is not merely polluting the ocean. It could actively interfere with marine life as it forms shells and skeletons, which is a much bigger deal than it might sound.

    Put simply: glitter helps the formation of crystals that nature did not plan for. And those crystals can break the glitter into even smaller pieces, making the pollution problem worse and more long-lasting.

    We tend to think of microplastics as tiny beads from face scrubs or fibres from clothes, but glitter is in its own special category. It is often made of layered plastic film with metal coatings – the same stuff found in craft supplies, cosmetics, party decorations and clothing. It is shiny, colourful and durable – and extremely tiny. That makes it hard to clean up and easy for marine animals to eat, because it looks tasty.

    New research reveals that PET-based glitter microplastics in the sea can actively influence a process known as biomineralisation.

    However, our research paper in the journal Environmental Sciences Europe suggests that what really sets glitter apart from other microplastics is the way it behaves once it enters the ocean. It actively interacts with its surroundings; it’s not drifting passively.

    In our lab, we recreated seawater conditions and added glitter to the mix to explore whether glitter would affect how minerals – like the ones marine animals use to make their shells – form. What we saw was surprisingly fast and incredibly consistent: the glitter was kickstarting the formation of minerals such as calcite, aragonite and other types of calcium carbonates in a process known as “biomineralisation”.

    These minerals are the building blocks that many marine creatures – including corals, sea urchins and molluscs – use to make their hard parts. If glitter is messing with that process, we could be looking at a serious threat to ocean life.

    A crystal-growing machine

    Under the microscope, we saw that glitter particles acted like little platforms for crystal growth. Minerals formed all over their surfaces, especially around cracks and edges. It was not a slow build-up – crystals appeared within minutes.

    This can complicate natural processes. Marine creatures use very precise conditions to make their shells the right shape and strength. When something like glitter comes along and changes the rules – speeding up crystal growth, changing the types of crystals that form – it could mess with those natural processes. Like baking a cake and suddenly having the oven heat up to 1,000ºC, you might still get a cake – but it will not be the one you intended to cook.

    Worse still, as the crystals grow, they push against the layers of glitter, causing it to crack, flake and break apart. That means the glitter ends up turning into even smaller pieces, known as nanoplastics, which are more easily absorbed by marine life and nearly impossible to remove from the environment.

    Microplastics are eaten by marine life, from fish and turtles to oysters and plankton. This affects how animals feed, grow and survive. When we eat seafood, these microplastics become part of our own diet.

    But our findings show that glitter does not just get eaten. It changes the chemistry of the ocean in tiny but important ways. By promoting the wrong kind of mineral growth, glitter might interfere with how ocean animals form their shells or skeletons in the first place.

    This problem does not stop with wildlife. The ocean plays a key role in regulating Earth’s climate, and mineral formation is part of that equation. If calcium carbonate formation in the ocean changes, it could also affect how carbon moves through the planet.

    So, the next time you see glitter on a birthday card or in a makeup palette, remember this: it might look like harmless sparkle, but in the ocean, it behaves more like a flashy chemical troublemaker. What seems small and shiny to us could be a big, silent disruptor for the marine world.

    And once it is out there, it is not going away.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Glitter’s sparkle hides a darker side – it can change the chemistry of our oceans – https://theconversation.com/glitters-sparkle-hides-a-darker-side-it-can-change-the-chemistry-of-our-oceans-255155

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Historical films and TV shows are embracing diversity – but real historical voices are still overlooked

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Éadaoin Agnew, Senior lecturer in English literature, Kingston University

    In the Disney+ television series, A Thousand Blows, Malachi Kirby plays Hezekiah Moscow, a Jamaican immigrant in London who is part of an underground boxing ring in the 1880s.

    The character, like many in the show, is based on a real-life figure. However, as historian David Olusoga recently explained in a comment to the Radio Times, Moscow is typical of many people who have come from the Caribbean or Africa in that we only have a fractured biography in the British historical records. We get flashes of information before he disappears.

    In recent years, there have been increasing creative efforts to fill these historical gaps. This suggests there is a willingness, at least in some spheres, to acknowledge the long history of multiculturalism in Britain and to see people of colour in 19th-century histories (see also 2019’s David Copperfield starring Dev Patel and the multicultural cast of Bridgerton).

    These costume dramas build on decades of scholarly work. There are now many excellent historical studies that document the various ways in which the Atlantic slave trade and imperialism produced routes and reasons for travel to Britain.

    Most people who arrived here from the colonies in the 18th and 19th centuries did not have the means to write their own stories, so we glance their lives through incomplete historical records. But, there were also British subjects of colour who were educated in English with a degree of relative privilege and who produced compelling and popular accounts of their experiences in Britain or life in the colonies. They also wrote fascinating fiction and beautiful poetry.

    These narratives directly challenge the general perception that multiculturalism emerged in Britain after the Windrush (Caribbean immigrants who arrived in Britain after the second world war to rebuild the nation) and that 19th-century English literature emerged only from Britain. Yet, there remains an unwillingness to centre these stories and to allow diverse voices to speak for themselves.

    My own work on the AHRC-funded Victorian Diversities Research Network seeks to recuperate and promote these stories.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Historical writers of colour and writers from other marginalised communities are continually excluded from school curricula, literary anthologies and TV adaptations. This is a kind of cultural gate-keeping that reinforces imperialist ideas about literary value.

    One example of this literary exclusion is Mary Seacole (1805-1881). Born in Jamaica to a Creole mother and Scottish father, she is now remembered in Britain for her contributions to nursing during the Crimean War. She is commemorated for her work by a statue at St. Thomas’ Hospital in London and by John Aagard’s wonderful poem Checking Out Me History (2019).

    Even so, there is a notable neglect of her fantastic memoir. Published in 1857, Wonderful Adventures of Mrs. Seacole in Many Lands is a funny, insightful and interesting account of her fulsome life. It clearly shows an affinity for Britain, while also acknowledging the difficulties she experienced there.

    One of two known photographs of Mary Seacole, taken circa 1873.
    Wiki Commons

    Another example is Ham Mukasa (1870-1956), who penned an account of his travels to England as part of an official African delegation in 1902 titled Uganda’s Katikiro in England. Written in a light and lively manner, his travelogue offers a fascinating picture of London at the turn of the century, as seen from a unique perspective.

    When Mukasa visited the British Museum not long after arriving in the metropolis, he admired the displays of “wonderful things of long ago”. He explains to his readers that these items are stored behind glass so visitors cannot touch them. It’s a fact that becomes particularly pertinent when he comes across several Ugandan artefacts donated to the museum by British travellers:

    We saw different articles from our country; some had been brought by Sir H. H. Johnston, who had given a great many things, and others by other Englishmen … the Rev. R. P. Ashe had given a great many, and others too had given things from our country of Uganda.

    It is a powerful image: the Ugandan men standing in a British institution looking at their own indigenous culture through a glass. The encounter speaks directly to contemporary debates about museum collections and the need for inclusive cultural spaces.

    Both Mukasa and Seacole, as people of colour and colonial subjects, articulate feelings of belonging and unbelonging in the metropolitan centre. They find much to admire in British culture and society while also acknowledging the fact of racial marginalisation.

    As such, they give historical and literary expression to the affects of mobility, migration and multiculturalism. As professor of global literatures Ruvani Ranasinha argues, current debates on citizenship rights, migration policy, what constitutes “Englishness” and multiculturalism were prompted and anticipated by the presence of colonial subjects within Britain over a century ago.

    Ignatius Sancho by Thomas Gainsborough (1768).
    National Gallery of Canada

    In a 2019 paper, he explains that “Britain was always ‘multicultural’ even before multiculturalism was theorised: multicultural in terms of a sense of (un)belonging, a redrawing of culturally and racially defined borders and remapping of British identities”. And so, Ranashina notes, we must do more than simply acknowledge the historical presence of marginalised people and start engaging with diverse cultural contributions.

    This is vital because an inclusive canon more accurately represents the multiple stories that make up English literary history.

    It also makes important critical and cultural contributions to the creation of an inclusive society today. This is acknowledged by actor and writer Paterson Joseph who recently fictionalised the letters of Ignatius Sancho, a writer and composer, who was born on a slave ship crossing the Atlantic Ocean:

    “I was once timid about my place here in the UK, but researching Sancho’s story … has given me a deep sense of belonging, of a shared history with a nation that sometimes ignores, sometimes rejects, my people’s right to an equal role in its storytelling.”

    Éadaoin Agnew receives funding from AHRC for the Victorian Diversities Research Network https://victoriandiversities.co.uk

    – ref. Historical films and TV shows are embracing diversity – but real historical voices are still overlooked – https://theconversation.com/historical-films-and-tv-shows-are-embracing-diversity-but-real-historical-voices-are-still-overlooked-253191

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Three strategies to help European carmakers regain their edge

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Francesco Grillo, Academic Fellow, Department of Social and Political Sciences, Bocconi University

    sylv1rob1/Shutterstock

    Even before US president Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff on all imported cars, European automakers had been facing a multitude of challenges. Sales have slumped and manufacturers face rising costs, while Chinese rivals have rapidly been gaining market share.

    The day before the tariffs announcement, the combined market capitalisation of Europe’s five major automakers (Volkswagen, Stellantis, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Renault) stood at around US$212 billion (£159 billion). This total is less than a quarter of the value of Tesla alone.

    Yet the five European giants sell 25 million vehicles annually, accounting for a third of all cars purchased worldwide. Tesla, despite losing half of its market value since the beginning of the year, only just makes the top 15 automakers. It sells less than a third of what Stellantis alone delivers.

    This essentially means that financial markets no longer believe that European carmakers can make money out of a business they have been dominating for almost a century.

    The crisis does, in fact, stem from the obsolescence of the technology upon which the entire industrial model of the car was built.

    The invention of German engineer Karl Benz, later made widely accessible to millions of consumers by American entrepreneur Henry Ford, was far more than just a product.

    Cars enabled people to go anywhere whenever they wanted. This fuelled the last industrial revolution and one of the greatest leaps in human prosperity.

    However, more than 100 years after the first assembly lines appeared in Detroit, the dream has stalled. In a world where economic and environmental resources are increasingly scarce, an entire industrial model looks unsustainable.

    Why? Because it became inefficient.

    A privately owned car is used for only 5% of its potential lifetime. It remains idle and occupying valuable parking space for the other 95%. It carries an average of just 1.2 passengers, utilising only a quarter of its capacity.

    If an alien were to observe human civilisation, it might conclude that humans have lost that special ability that made them so different from all other species: to do more with less.

    Additionally, around 80% of cars are still powered by fossil fuels that cost significantly more than electricity per mile. This is despite economies of scale that are bringing down the price of purchasing a plug-in electric vehicle (EV).

    These issues have hit the European – and also the US – automotive industries hard. These regions were the birthplace of the industry itself. For CEOs and policymakers, who often belong to a generation (and a gender) steeped in traditional automotive culture, finding solutions has proven difficult. However, there could be a clear path forward.

    Here are three ideas to bring the European automotive industry in the 21st century.

    1. Become more competitive by attracting EV rivals

    China has already secured a technological advantage in this field – similar to the dominance once held by Volkswagen when it first established factories in Shanghai.

    In the same week when BYD announced that it has surpassed Tesla in terms of revenues of electric cars, the Chinese automaker also revealed that it had developed a system to charge an electric car with 400km (249 miles) of range in five minutes.

    BYD and other Chinese manufacturers export less than 10% of their products to the EU. They will survive any import duty that the EU imposes on them. Instead of fearing Chinese automakers, the EU should entice them to establish production facilities in the bloc, encouraging competition and innovation within its borders.

    2. Sell services and symbols

    New business models should focus on selling services as well as objects. This trend is prevailing in many industries, and carmakers should embrace it to develop partnerships with organisations that can make driving a less wasteful experience. Autonomous driving technology, for example, offers the chance to take vehicle-sharing to a much wider customer base.

    And European automakers should trade on their history as a symbol of expertise and longevity. This is not so different to what camera-maker Kodak has done to survive to the digital revolution. It is notable that Ferrari is now worth more than its bigger sister company Stellantis.

    3. Governments must get involved

    For the transformation to succeed, governments must play a role. It is not about propping up the European industry with subsidies or treating cars as the new steel industry. Rather, it is about designing and implementing the infrastructure that the future of mobility requires.

    The Fiat Topolino brought private transport to the masses.
    Dan74/Shutterstock

    A century ago, European cities were completely restructured to transition from horse-drawn carriages to the first Fiat Topolinos rolling out of the Mirafiori factory.

    Today, we need new charging networks and dedicated lanes for electric and autonomous vehicles. This is already happening in China clearly showing that without a significant modernisation of infrastructure innovation does not happen.

    The impact of tariffs

    Trump’s tariffs will hurt – badly. Volkswagen, which exports two thirds of its production outside western Europe, will suffer most after assuming that its “people’s cars” could be sold indiscriminately to different populations.

    However, the era of tariffs should serve as a wake-up call rather than a death sentence. The European automotive sector must use this challenge to reinvent itself, just as it did in the post-war era.

    In the 1960s, countries like Italy and France combined industrial strategy of the likes of Fiat and Renault with a vision of the future. This alignment of industrial ambition and pragmatic policymaking was a key part of post-war reconstruction.

    Now European leaders must embrace the same spirit of bold, forward-thinking innovation to build a transport system that is capable of setting global standards. The automotive crisis is not just an industry-specific issue. It demands a revival of both vision and pragmatism.

    Francesco Grillo is affiliated with Vision, an independent European Think Tank. Vision is the convenor of two global conferences: on “the Europe of the Future” (in Siena) and on “global governance of climate change” (in Trento).

    – ref. Three strategies to help European carmakers regain their edge – https://theconversation.com/three-strategies-to-help-european-carmakers-regain-their-edge-255259

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How dogs and cats are evolving to look alike and why it’s humans’ fault – new research

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Grace Carroll, Lecturer in Animal Behaviour and Welfare, School of Psychology, Queen’s University Belfast

    Africa Studio/Shutterstock

    Domestication has made cats and dogs more diverse, but also curiously alike – with serious implications for their health and welfare, new research shows.

    At first glance, Persian cats and pugs don’t seem like they’d have much in common. One’s a cat, the other’s a dog, separated by 50 million years of evolution. But when evolutionary biologist Abby Grace Drake and her colleagues scanned 1,810 skulls of cats, dogs and their wild relatives, they found something strange. Despite their distant histories, many breeds of cats and dogs show striking similarity in skull shape.

    In evolutionary biology, divergence is a common process. In simple terms, divergence is where two organisms that share a common ancestry become increasingly different over time, while convergence means becoming more similar. As populations of animals split and adapt to different environments, they gradually develop new traits, a process known as divergent evolution.

    This is one of the main ways new species form different traits, causing populations to evolve along separate paths. But sometimes, evolution can take a different direction. Convergence happens when unrelated species, shaped by similar pressures, independently evolve similar features.

    In the case of domestic cats, dogs and many other domesticated species, intentional and unintentional selection by humans seems to have created convergence, accidentally steering different species toward similar traits.

    Despite a long history of evolutionary separation, flat-faced breeds like the Persian cat and pugs share similar skull structures.

    Persian cats have a similar skull structure to pugs.
    Zanna Pesnina/Shutterstock

    To investigate how far domestication has reshaped skull structure, Drake and her colleagues analysed 3D scans of skulls from museum specimens, veterinary schools and digital archives. Their dataset included domestic cats such as Siamese, Maine coon and Persian breeds, as well as over 100 dog breeds from short-muzzled dogs like pugs, to long-muzzled breeds like collies.

    Their findings showed that domestication has not only increased skull shape diversity beyond that of wolves and wildcats, but also led some cat and dog breeds to resemble one another, with convergence towards either long or flat faces. Wild canids (the group of animals that includes dogs, wolves, foxes and jackals) tend to share a similar elongated skull, while wild felids (the group of animals that includes domestic cats, lions, tigers and jaguars) show more natural variation.

    Yet domestic breeds of both species now span a more extreme range at both ends of the scale. This trend can be seen in the emergence of cats bred to resemble XL bully dogs.

    Domestication has long shown that when humans intervene, even distantly related species can end up looking, and sometimes suffering, in similar ways.

    Selective breeding has exaggerated traits across species. Many other human-made changes can push animals beyond what their bodies can naturally support. For instance, some chickens bred for their meat carry 30% of their body weight in breast muscle, which often results in heart and lung problems.

    The human preference for flat-faced pets taps into some of our most fundamental instincts. Humans are hard-wired to respond to infant features like rounded heads, small noses and large, low set eyes. These traits, which are exaggerated in many flat-faced cat and dog breeds, mimic the appearance of human babies.

    Of all species, humans are among the most altricial, meaning that we are born helpless and dependent on caregivers for survival, a trait we share with puppies and kittens. In contrast, precocial animals are able to see, hear, stand and move shortly after birth. Because human infants rely so heavily upon adult care, evolution has shaped us to be sensitive to signals of vulnerability and need.

    These signals like the rounded cheeks and wide eyes of babies, are known as social releasers. They trigger caregiving behaviour in adults, from speaking in higher-pitched tones to offering parental care.

    Herring gulls (a type of seagull) are an example of this in non-human animals. Their chicks instinctively peck at a red spot on the parent’s beak, which triggers the adult to regurgitate food. This red spot acts as a social releaser, ensuring the chick’s needs are met at the right time. In a similar way, domesticated animals have effectively hijacked ancient caregiving mechanisms evolved for our own offspring.

    These traits may give pets an advantage in soliciting human care and attention, but they come at a cost.

    The UK government commissions its Animal Welfare Committee to provide independent expert advice on emerging animal welfare concerns. In reports they produced in 2024, the committee raised serious concerns about the effect of selective breeding in both cats and dogs.

    The reports highlighted that breeding for extreme physical traits, like flat faces and exaggerated skull shapes, has led to widespread health problems, including breathing difficulties, neurological conditions and birth complications.

    The committee argues that animals with severe hereditary health issues should no longer be used for breeding, and calls for tougher regulation of breeders. Without these reforms, many popular breeds will continue to suffer from preventable, life-limiting conditions.

    Selective breeding has shown how easily humans can bend nature to their preferences, and how quickly millions of years of evolutionary separation can be overridden by a few decades of artificial selection.

    In choosing pets that mimic the faces of our own infants, we have, often unwittingly, selected for traits that harm the animals. Understanding the forces that drive convergence between species is a reminder that we play a powerful and sometimes dangerous role in shaping it.

    Grace Carroll does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How dogs and cats are evolving to look alike and why it’s humans’ fault – new research – https://theconversation.com/how-dogs-and-cats-are-evolving-to-look-alike-and-why-its-humans-fault-new-research-255260

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Reform enters local government for the first time with UK mayoral election wins

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Nurse, Reader in Urban Planning, University of Liverpool

    The UK now has two regional mayors representing the Reform party, following English local elections on May 1. This is the first time anyone from the party has held a government position at any level.

    Andrea Jenkyns, formerly a Conservative government minister, is now the mayor of Greater Lincolnshire following an election win on May 1. She becomes the first Reform and Luke Campbell is now mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire. Both are new mayoralities, created as part of the government’s developing devolution plans.

    The creation of more mayoralties meant that, perhaps inevitably, the near-monopoly that Labour held on mayors after the 2024 local elections has ended. But with an unproven track record, it’s reasonable to ask what we might expect from the new reform mayors as they take office.

    Since the first devolution deals were signed back in 2014, English devolution has always been about the ability of local governments to convince Westminster to let go of power. The result has been that devolution deals have varied in strength across the country.

    In broad terms, city regions have tended to get more powers, while others get slightly less. This means that not every new regional (also known as metro) mayor will be a budding Andy Burnham – though in practice most can expect to have core powers of housing, transport and education. Over time we have seen how the existing mayors have sought to inhabit those powers in their own way, and bring about their own priorities.

    So, we now wait to see what that means for the new mayors as they take power. We already know that Jenkyns’ election manifesto touched upon the key powers the mayor will hold (transport, education and the economy) but her agenda on these was painted only in the broadest of brush strokes.

    For example, there were promises to upgrade major roads, and to secure more funding for transport – although achieving both would require a willing Labour government to play nice. More realistic promises include more frequent buses which better serve parts of what is a large rural area, and creating skills bodies to work with local employers.

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    Elsewhere, however, the manifesto delved into the realm of memes and bogeymen. For example, Jenkyns has proposed creating “DOGE Lincolnshire”, mirroring Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency in the US.

    This promises to cut government waste and “ensure efficiency”. Yet, given the combined authority she heads was only constituted in February, it’s not quite clear what inefficiencies Jenkyns is referring to.

    Another pledge is to push back against net zero – something that Reform seems to be using as their protest lodestar now that Brexit is no longer fertile feeding ground. Here, the policies seem to be to fight against national government policy on net-zero rather than anything really specific.

    Playing nicely with central government

    A regional mayor’s fate often hinges on their ability to interact effectively with central government – either by trying to secure concessions from it, or resisting it. Here, it will be very interesting to watch how Jenkyns, Campbell and the new Conservative mayor of Cambridge and Peterborough, Paul Bristow, assimilate.

    They are now members of the Council of the Regions – which for the last 12 months has been largely a cosy cabal of Labour mayors (and Tory Ben Houchen).

    How will Reform mayors – and Jenkyns in particular do business with the others? She is known as a disruptor so it could change the dynamic significantly.

    English local government is littered with examples of national government visiting retribution on local authorities for perceived transgressions. For example, most famously, Margaret Thatcher’s government abolished the Metropolitan Councils in 1986 for getting a bit too big for their boots. While there is no suggestion that will happen this time, current devolution deals are heavily premised on trust and ability to work with government.

    The other issue will be how what started as a protest party deals with the minutiae of governing. Mario Cuomo, a former governor of New York, once famously said that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Sometimes, however, local government can be about the grammar – dealing with those minor details.

    I remember interviewing a local councillor who once told me most of the time people want to talk about dog poo and bins. Equally, things like potholes are shown to be what residents want to see fixed.

    From now on, Jenkyns and other reform-led councils will have a record that they will have to defend. Ultimately, while a manifesto that is half-built on memes might grab attention on election day, it probably isn’t going to make the buses run on time.

    Alex Nurse receives funding from the ESRC.

    – ref. Reform enters local government for the first time with UK mayoral election wins – https://theconversation.com/reform-enters-local-government-for-the-first-time-with-uk-mayoral-election-wins-255731

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bingeable comedy, a Jim Crow-era vampire thriller and William Morris mania – what to watch, read and do this week

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Naomi Joseph, Arts + Culture Editor

    I recently bought a Now TV subscription because we are in prime prestige TV season and I needed it to watch The White Lotus and The Last of Us. Deep into those big, confronting shows (which are brilliant but, let’s be honest, a lot), I was looking for something that was comforting and easy. If this is what you are also craving right now, I could not recommend Hacks more.

    Hacks is a whip-smart and hilarious show with 30-minute episodes. It follows Ava Daniels (Hannah Einbinder), an edgy comedy writer who isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, and spiky Las Vegas comedy veteran Deborah Vance (Jean Smart). This pair are shoved together by their shared manager when Ava is fired from a writing gig for making an off-colour joke on social media, and Deborah loses her headline slot on the Vegas strip as the city moves on without her.

    The trailer for season four of Hacks.

    Since its first season, Hacks has provided insightful commentary on the male-dominated world of comedy. The push and pull relationship between Ava and Deborah is hilarious as they clash over generational differences on everything from comedy to sexuality. The show has been rightly lauded for its brilliant writing, which manages to go all the way up to the line without being hateful – a skill many comedians who argue that it’s hard to make comedy in our politically correct age could learn from.

    Now in its fourth season, our reviewer, Jacqueline Ristola, an expert in the media industry and comedy, says Hacks has managed to maintain the quality (and hilarity) while finding new ground to explore women’s precarious place in the entertainment industry.



    Read more:
    Hacks season four tackles late-night TV – and is as funny and perceptive as ever

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    If you are in the mood for something a bit moodier and serious, then Sinners might be for you. The film follows twin brothers Smoke and Stack (both played by Michael B. Jordan) who have returned home to Mississippi in an attempt to leave their troubles behind. What they find waiting for them, however, is much worse.

    Sinners is set in Jim Crow-era Mississippi, a time of harsh segregation and racial injustice. While the horrors of this period are certainly enough to scare anyone, director Ryan Coogler has decided to tell a story grounded in supernatural evil. Vampires aside, there is a lot of history in Sinners too. Criminology expert Rachel Stuart found it interesting how the real stories of Irish and Choctaw oppression informed the film.



    Read more:
    Sinners: how real stories of Irish and Choctaw oppression inform the film

    The trailer for Sinners.

    If you’re looking for something to read, we recommend the memoir Red Pockets. In this piece, Alice Mah, a professor in urban and environmental studies, writes about why she was inspired to create this book after a personal detour to her ancestral village she took while on a research trip.

    In Red Pockets, Mah chronicles her journey from the rice villages of south China back to postindustrial England. Her research on pollution leads to growing eco-anxiety, and paired with this trip leaves her in spiritual crisis. Part memoir, part cultural history and environmental exploration, this book explores what we owe our ancestors and also future generations.



    Read more:
    Travelling to my ancestral home in China unearthed tragedy tinged by the climate crisis – it inspired me to write Red Pockets

    Inky worlds and popular patterns

    Also moody and brilliant is the Victor Hugo exhibition at the Royal Academy in London. I did not know that the French writer was an avid artist, and this exhibition is a wonderful and rare opportunity to gaze into the dark and surreal world of the mind behind Les Misérables and The Hunchback of Notre Dame.

    Hugo’s inky paintings and drawings of townscapes and watery underworlds invoke a sort of nightmarish and apocalyptic reality. The low lighting in which these extremely fragile works must be kept adds to the whole foreboding atmosphere. The exhibition’s title comes from Van Gogh’s opinion of Hugo’s work as “astonishing things”, and they really are. Our review, expert in fine art Martin Lang, found “the sense of uncertainty to feel oddly relevant to today”.



    Read more:
    Astonishing Things: The Drawings of Victor Hugo at the Royal Academy is dark and brilliant

    Another man whose art has had enduring appeal is designer William Morris. Most people probably have or know of someone who owns something adorned with one of his hypnotising patterns. His work has remained incredibly popular since he first started producing it in the 1860s. A new exhibition at the William Morris exhibition, Morris Mania: How Britain’s Greatest Designer Went Viral, explores how his work proliferated to such a degree.

    While you may be able to spot a Morris, you might not know much about the man. He was a fervent socialist who championed a principle of handmade production that didn’t chime with the Victorian era’s focus on industrial “progress”. These ideals sit in opposition to how his work has come to be used today.

    Our reviewer, an expert in applied art, found that the exhibition was sensitive to this, championing “ethical and bespoke production, while confronting the darker currents that move objects around our world”.



    Read more:
    William Morris: new exhibition reveals how Britain’s greatest designer went viral

    – ref. Bingeable comedy, a Jim Crow-era vampire thriller and William Morris mania – what to watch, read and do this week – https://theconversation.com/bingeable-comedy-a-jim-crow-era-vampire-thriller-and-william-morris-mania-what-to-watch-read-and-do-this-week-255742

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Perfect storm of tech bros, foreign interference and disinformation is an urgent threat to press freedom

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Tom Felle, Associate Professor of Journalism, University of Galway

    Media freedom has long been essential to healthy democracy. It is the oxygen that fuels informed debate, exposes corruption and holds power to account. But around the world, that freedom is under sustained attack.

    The actions of populist political elites, tech billionaires and foreign disinformation campaigns are reinforcing one another. This is weakening independent journalism and reshaping the global public sphere.

    This convergence was on full display at US president Donald Trump’s 2025 inauguration. The presence of Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg signalled that the tech elite are no longer simply disruptors. They are increasingly aligned with populist politics, a project openly hostile to independent journalism and democratic accountability.

    Nowhere is this clearer than on X (formerly Twitter). Musk’s takeover has transformed the platform into a breeding ground for conspiracy theories and misinformation, while systematically undermining the credibility of established media outlets. Meta’s decision to abandon factchecking political content in the US also marks a dangerous retreat from even the minimal efforts once made to curb disinformation.

    At its core, journalism’s role is simple but essential: to inform the public and hold power to account. Independent media – outlets free from government, political, or corporate control – are essential to democracy. They play a critical role in exposing corruption, amplifying marginalised voices, scrutinising government decisions and challenging abuses of power.

    When media organisations are weakened, this essential accountability collapses – allowing governments, politicians and corporations to operate unchecked. Minorities and vulnerable groups suffer most when no one is left to shine a light on abuse or discrimination. Human rights violations go unreported. Misinformation and rumour fill the void.

    That is precisely what is happening, not just in fragile states but in established democracies. Populist leaders have attacked journalists as enemies of the people and smeared media outlets that challenge them.

    Donald Trump infamously branded critical coverage as “fake news”. Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro vilified journalists who investigated corruption and environmental crimes. Hungary’s Viktor Orbán has systematically dismantled media independence. Slovakia’s Robert Fico called journalists “bloodthirsty bastards” and “possessed by the devil”.

    These leaders know that controlling the narrative is key to holding power. Discrediting the media is the first step.

    One of the clearest recent examples is the Trump administration’s shuttering of Voice of America (VOA). This move to silence a broadcaster that had promoted press freedom for over 80 years has been celebrated by authoritarian regimes. China’s state media mocked VOA as “discarded like a dirty rag”.

    Foreign threats

    What makes this moment uniquely dangerous is that these political attacks are now supercharged by technology platforms retreating from accountability, and exploited by hostile foreign powers.

    The latest European External Action Service (EEAS) Foreign Information Manipulation and Interference Threat Report paints a stark picture of how disinformation is used as a strategic weapon to weaken democracies from within.

    In 2024, the EEAS – the diplomatic service of the European Union – detected
    record levels of foreign manipulation, particularly from Russia and China. The EEAS recorded more than 500 coordinated manipulation campaigns targeting 90 countries.

    These included AI-generated deepfake videos impersonating European politicians, such as a fabricated video of Moldova’s president endorsing a pro-Russian party.

    Bot networks were deployed to amplify false narratives about migration and inflation, distorting online discourse and inflaming social divisions. Impersonation tactics cloning legitimate news websites like Le Monde and German media were used to disseminate pro-Kremlin disinformation. All these efforts were aimed at undermining trust in democratic institutions, inflaming social divisions and creating confusion.

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    Sign up for our weekly politics newsletter, delivered every Friday.

    Disinformation has become a standard geopolitical weapon, often used as a precursor to military or economic action. In the lead-up to its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia conducted a sustained disinformation campaign. Fabricated videos and false flag operations portrayed Ukraine as the aggressor to justify military action.

    Similarly, during the 2020-21 border clashes with India, China spread disinformation downplaying its military build-up while casting India as the instigator.

    Russia has also used disinformation to pursue economic goals, notably by spreading falsehoods about European renewable energy and gas supply stability, to influence energy policy and sow public doubt about the EU’s energy independence strategy.

    While this happens, platforms like Meta and X are retreating from content moderation and fact-checking. The result is a perfect storm where domestic populism, platform failure and foreign manipulation reinforce one another. Platforms like X have become the key battleground, accounting for 88% of detected disinformation activity.

    What’s at stake – and what must change

    As these threats grow, the traditional media model is collapsing. Advertising revenue – once the lifeblood of newspapers, radio, and television – has shifted almost entirely to digital platforms. Local newsrooms are closing, while investigative journalism is increasingly rare, expensive and risky.

    In the UK, more than 320 local papers have closed since 2009. Titles like the Evening Standard ended daily print in 2024 due to plummeting ad revenues. Across Europe, rising news deserts and newsroom cuts are weakening media’s democratic role.

    In the US, things are even worse – 3,200 newspapers have closed since 2005. More than half of all counties now have little or no local news coverage.

    As social media platforms abandon even basic content moderation, they create vast, ungoverned digital spaces where bad actors dominate the conversation.

    Into this gap flood social media influencers, partisan outlets and state-backed propaganda. The result is a fractured, polarised information ecosystem. Facts struggle to compete with viral misinformation and coordinated disinformation campaigns.

    News consumers must navigate a sea of misinformation and propaganda.
    Olezzo/Shutterstock

    In the end, it is citizens who pay the price, bombarded by propaganda and adrift in a sea of misinformation. This is not just a media problem, it is a fundamental threat to democracy itself. Without independent journalism, there is no one left to ask difficult questions, expose wrongdoing or defend the public interest.

    Protecting media freedom must now be treated as a democratic priority, as essential as free and fair elections or an independent judiciary. Governments need to regulate tech platforms effectively, enforcing transparency over algorithms and bringing in meaningful protections against disinformation.

    Public investment in journalism is critical to ensure the press can survive and hold power to account. Democracies must coordinate efforts to counter foreign information manipulation, and protect journalists facing harassment and threats from authoritarian regimes.

    The future of democratic accountability now depends on whether governments, regulators and the media can reclaim this space before it is lost entirely. Above all, this means recognising that journalism is not a luxury or a relic. It is a vital public good.

    Tom Felle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Perfect storm of tech bros, foreign interference and disinformation is an urgent threat to press freedom – https://theconversation.com/perfect-storm-of-tech-bros-foreign-interference-and-disinformation-is-an-urgent-threat-to-press-freedom-252986

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Reform enters government for the first time with mayoral election wins

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Nurse, Reader in Urban Planning, University of Liverpool

    The UK now has two regional mayors representing the Reform party, following English local elections on May 1. This is the first time anyone from the party has held a government position at any level.

    Andrea Jenkyns, formerly a Conservative government minister, is now the mayor of Greater Lincolnshire following an election win on May 1. She becomes the first Reform and Luke Campbell is now mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire. Both are new mayoralities, created as part of the government’s developing devolution plans.

    The creation of more mayoralties meant that, perhaps inevitably, the near-monopoly that Labour held on mayors after the 2024 local elections has ended. But with an unproven track record, it’s reasonable to ask what we might expect from the new reform mayors as they take office.

    Since the first devolution deals were signed back in 2014, English devolution has always been about the ability of local governments to convince Westminster to let go of power. The result has been that devolution deals have varied in strength across the country.

    In broad terms, city regions have tended to get more powers, while others get slightly less. This means that not every new regional (also known as metro) mayor will be a budding Andy Burnham – though in practice most can expect to have core powers of housing, transport and education. Over time we have seen how the existing mayors have sought to inhabit those powers in their own way, and bring about their own priorities.

    So, we now wait to see what that means for the new mayors as they take power. We already know that Jenkyns’ election manifesto touched upon the key powers the mayor will hold (transport, education and the economy) but her agenda on these was painted only in the broadest of brush strokes.

    For example, there were promises to upgrade major roads, and to secure more funding for transport – although achieving both would require a willing Labour government to play nice. More realistic promises include more frequent buses which better serve parts of what is a large rural area, and creating skills bodies to work with local employers.

    Want more politics coverage from academic experts? Every week, we bring you informed analysis of developments in government and fact check the claims being made.

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    Elsewhere, however, the manifesto delved into the realm of memes and bogeymen. For example, Jenkyns has proposed creating “DOGE Lincolnshire”, mirroring Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency in the US.

    This promises to cut government waste and “ensure efficiency”. Yet, given the combined authority she heads was only constituted in February, it’s not quite clear what inefficiencies Jenkyns is referring to.

    Another pledge is to push back against net zero – something that Reform seems to be using as their protest lodestar now that Brexit is no longer fertile feeding ground. Here, the policies seem to be to fight against national government policy on net-zero rather than anything really specific.

    Playing nicely with central government

    A regional mayor’s fate often hinges on their ability to interact effectively with central government – either by trying to secure concessions from it, or resisting it. Here, it will be very interesting to watch how Jenkyns, Campbell and the new Conservative mayor of Cambridge and Peterborough, Paul Bristow, assimilate.

    They are now members of the Council of the Regions – which for the last 12 months has been largely a cosy cabal of Labour mayors (and Tory Ben Houchen).

    How will Reform mayors – and Jenkyns in particular do business with the others? She is known as a disruptor so it could change the dynamic significantly.

    English local government is littered with examples of national government visiting retribution on local authorities for perceived transgressions. For example, most famously, Margaret Thatcher’s government abolished the Metropolitan Councils in 1986 for getting a bit too big for their boots. While there is no suggestion that will happen this time, current devolution deals are heavily premised on trust and ability to work with government.

    The other issue will be how what started as a protest party deals with the minutiae of governing. Mario Cuomo, a former governor of New York, once famously said that you campaign in poetry and govern in prose. Sometimes, however, local government can be about the grammar – dealing with those minor details.

    I remember interviewing a local councillor who once told me most of the time people want to talk about dog poo and bins. Equally, things like potholes are shown to be what residents want to see fixed.

    From now on, Jenkyns and other reform-led councils will have a record that they will have to defend. Ultimately, while a manifesto that is half-built on memes might grab attention on election day, it probably isn’t going to make the buses run on time.

    Alex Nurse receives funding from the ESRC.

    – ref. Reform enters government for the first time with mayoral election wins – https://theconversation.com/reform-enters-government-for-the-first-time-with-mayoral-election-wins-255731

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Human rights group calls for probe into attack on Freedom Flotilla ship

    Asia Pacific Report

    A human rights agency has called for an investigation into the drone attacks on the Gaza Freedom Flotilla aid ship Conscience with Israel suspected of being responsible.

    The Euro-Med Human Rights Monitor said in a statement that the deliberate targeting of a civilian aid ship in international waters was a “flagrant violation” of the United Nations Charter, the Law of the Sea, and the Rome Statute, which prohibits the targeting of humanitarian objects.

    It added: “This attack falls within a recurring and documented pattern of force being used to prevent ships from reaching the Gaza Strip, even before they approach its shores.”

    The monitor is calling for an “independent and transparent investigation under Maltese jurisdiction, with the participation of the United Nations”.

    It is also demanding “guarantees for safe sea passage for humanitarian aid bound for Gaza”.

    “Any failure to act today will only encourage further attacks on humanitarian missions and deepen the catastrophe unfolding in Gaza,” said the monitor.

    A spokesperson for the Gaza Freedom Flotilla said the group blamed Israel or one of its allies for the attack, adding it currently did not have proof of this claim.

    Israeli TV confirms attack
    However, Israel’s channel 12 television reported that Israeli forces were responsible for the attack.

    The Freedom Flotilla Coalition (FFC) is a grassroots people-to-people solidarity movement composed of campaigns and initiatives from different parts of the world, working together to end the illegal Israeli blockade of Gaza.

    The organisation said its goals included:

    • breaking Israel’s more than 17-year illegal and inhumane blockade of the Gaza Strip;
    • educating people around the world about the blockade of Gaza;
    • condemning and publicising the complicity of other governments and global actors in enabling the blockade; and
    • responding to the cry from Palestinians and Palestinian organisations in Gaza for solidarity to break the blockade.

    The MV Conscience — with about 30 human rights and aid activists on board — came under direct attack in international waters off the coast of Malta at 00:23 local time.

    The Maltese government said everyone on the ship was safe following the attack. Although several New Zealanders have been on board past flotilla ships, none were on board this time.

    In May 2010, Israeli security forces attacked six vessels in a Freedom Flotilla mission carrying aid aid bound for Gaza.

    Nine of the flotilla passengers were killed during the raid, with 30 wounded — one of whom later died of his wounds.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump and many GOP lawmakers want to end all funding for NPR and PBS − unraveling a US public media system that took a century to build

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Josh Shepperd, Associate Professor of Media Studies, University of Colorado Boulder

    Cast members of the children’s television show ‘Sesame Street’ pose with Big Bird, Cookie Monster, Grover, Ernie, Bert and Oscar the Grouch in 1969. Hulton Archive/Getty Images

    The Trump administration’s drive to slash government spending on everything from the arts to cancer research also includes efforts to carry through on the Republican Party’s long-standing goal of ending federal funding for NPR, the nation’s public radio network, and PBS, its television counterpart.

    Across the country, 1,500 independent stations affiliated with NPR and PBS air shows such as “Morning Edition,” “Marketplace,” “PBS NewsHour,” “Frontline” and “Nova.” Some 43 million people tune into public radio every week, and over 130 million watch PBS every year, according to the networks.

    Public media stations air local news and, when necessary, emergency information. Most also feature regional, national and global coverage of arts and culture. With commercial media divesting from local news reporting, audiences that have long relied on public media to inform their communities are even more dependent now on that service, as are audiences that got their local news from commercial sources.

    Investigating public media

    Public media is also under attack from the Republican majority in Congress and facing scrutiny from the Federal Communications Commission, the government agency that regulates media.

    Brendan Carr, whom President Donald Trump appointed to lead the FCC, helped draft Project 2025. That’s the conservative blueprint that Trump distanced himself from during the 2024 campaign but has since embraced.

    As proposed in Project 2025, the FCC is examining NPR’s approach to underwriting. Through underwriting, financial support from sponsors is acknowledged on air without asking audiences to form an opinion about a product or make a specific purchase.

    The FCC is investigating whether those messages on NPR and PBS “cross the line into prohibited commercial advertisements.”

    The top executives of NPR and PBS have denied that their underwriting practices violate any regulations or laws.

    At the same time, House Republicans are holding hearings regarding what they say is public media’s “liberal bias.” Their attention is primarily directed at the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, the nonprofit corporation that stewards federal money that Congress appropriates for NPR and PBS.

    And in a separate move, Trump demanded that CPB “cancel existing direct funding to the maximum extent allowed by law” and “decline to provide future funding” in an executive order issued on May 1, 2025. Trump’s order accused NPR and PBS of bias in its “portrayal of current events to taxpaying citizens.”

    I’m a media historian who wrote a book about the origins of public media in the U.S. and how NPR and PBS contribute to democratic participation. Both networks are designed to provide equal access to information for every listener and viewer.

    In my view, as these efforts to investigate and end the funding of public media proceed, it’s worth revisiting why the Corporation for Public Broadcasting was founded in the first place and to understand how it contributes to equal access to information today.

    Beginning with education

    U.S. public media took root in the 1920s, when public universities built radio stations so that rural communities could receive better access to the kind of education available in cities.

    The first programs consisted of professors and radio hosts giving lectures about history, finance and other subjects such as cooking, quilting and music appreciation.

    Some of those professors believed so strongly in democratic access to media that they built radio stations with their own hands, including one at the University of Wisconsin. In other cases, professors experimented with performing live drama. Ohio State University broadcast the first educational radio Shakespeare performances in the late 1920s.

    Many people liked the programming enough to tune in, but the quality of early educational broadcast experiments was inconsistent. Some professors didn’t understand how to talk with audiences and were criticized for their monotone deliveries.

    Amid threats to its federal funding, PBS reports on the history of U.S. public media.

    Running the ‘bicycle network’

    Interest in improving the quality of educational radio grew once radio ownership became more widespread. Over 500 U.S. stations were on the air in 1940. By 1945, when World War II ended, over 95% of families owned radio receivers.

    Every listener could take correspondence classes. And educators started to research how to make learning through the radio more compelling and fun.

    By the late 1940s, colleges and universities started to pay better attention to making education on the radio both entertaining and informative. They traded their best programs all around the country, through a system they called the “bicycle network.”

    Once national distribution was in place, producers of educational radio and TV shows came to an agreement about their best programs through a group called the National Association of Educational Broadcasters. They landed on formulas now associated with NPR and PBS. Home economics instruction evolved into cooking shows. Interviews with professors became public affairs programs.

    Radio stations started to combine different kinds of programs that spanned an entire school day. A half-hour children’s comedy show now weaved math, storytelling, music and civics. This format laid some of the groundwork for “Sesame Street.”

    In the 1950s a philosophy of public media emerged.

    The National Association of Educational Broadcasters’ members believed that everyone should have equal access to education no matter where they lived. They argued that information they presented should be held to rigorous standards, such as fact-checking and even peer review, the academic practice of verifying research validity.

    Educational broadcasters aired programs for all kinds of audiences, including in communities not served by commercial media.

    To stay focused on their mission, educational broadcasters decided to bar taking money from corporate advertisers. This meant that most money came from state and local governments instead of businesses.

    State authorities were able to make public announcements, quickly report emergencies and provide free airtime for political candidates. State lawmakers also thought that these media outlets could help their constituents learn trades at their own pace.

    Phasing in government funding

    Using broadcasting to provide equal access to education required a lot of new infrastructure.

    By the late 1950s the federal government started to fund the construction of radio towers, transmitters and buildings so that every person could access educational programs via broadcasts. President Dwight D. Eisenhower signed a law in 1958 that funded educational access because it could contribute to national defense.

    Nearly a decade later, in 1967, President Lyndon B. Johnson signed the Public Broadcasting Act. That law guaranteed a permanent stream of government funding for educational radio and television. Congress had pivoted from “education” to “public” broadcasting as the medium incorporated a wider array of programs, including BBC shows from the U.K.

    PBS first went live in 1970, and NPR’s first broadcast aired in 1971.

    To buffer NPR and PBS from the influence of political parties and commercial sponsors, the law called for the creation of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting.

    In addition to receiving and then disbursing to NPR and PBS the federal funds that Congress appropriates for public media, the CPB provides additional grants to stations across the country. Notably, federal funds help to pay for maintaining equipment and studios where public media programs are taped. That is, most government funding for public media is dedicated to maintaining the technology necessary to continue with its mission to provide equal access.

    The rest of the federal money supports the same program development and audience engagement research that started with the National Association of Educational Broadcasters’ “bicycle network.”

    NPR has gotten more sophisticated since it first went on the air in 1971, as CBS News reports.

    Establishing a strong track record

    The CPB model has succeeded by many measures. About 99% of Americans have access to public media through their television sets, car radios, computers and other devices.

    The CPB received $535 million in government funding in the 2025 fiscal year, equal to roughly $1.60 per American. About 70% of that money supports local radio and television stations. Public media costs taxpayers far more elsewhere. A 2022 study found that Germany spends around $142 per person, the U.K. spends $81, and Canada spends over $26 per year.

    The U.S. system is also unusual in that the local affiliates are nonprofits that have to pay for the NPR and PBS programs they run. Like the CPB, NPR and PBS are independent nonprofits, not government agencies.

    Rather than having the federal government foot the whole bill, in the U.S. public media also relies on $1.3 billion in annual charitable donations from viewers, listeners, corporations and foundations. Of that, public media receives $170 million in underwriting, according to a 2023 report.

    But should the federal government end all federal funding for the CPB, their NPR- and PBS-affiliated stations would have more trouble buying, repairing and replacing the transmitters, antennas and websites required to broadcast their programs.

    Losing access to local news

    The CPB has already sued the Trump administration over its attempt to oust three of its board members. The CPB asserts that because it is an independent organization and not a federal agency, the federal government can’t dictate who serves on its board. Trump’s executive order could also be challenged in court. And, as is the case with all executive orders, any future administration could rescind it.

    Most likely, the original target audience of educational radio − rural communities − would feel the biggest impact if the Trump administration does end federal funding of NPR and PBS. That’s because rural areas have few alternatives now that local journalism has been hit hard by corporate cuts to newsrooms.

    Public media’s first century inspired an alternative approach to media other than producing programs that tobacco companies, automakers and other businesses would want to sponsor. How Congress, the FCC and the courts proceed today will influence public media’s reach and practices for the next century.

    Josh Shepperd is under contract to co-author an update of the history of public broadcasting for Current, public media’s trade journal, and the Corporation for Public Broadcasting. Josh is not a paid employee or vendor of either institution.

    – ref. Trump and many GOP lawmakers want to end all funding for NPR and PBS − unraveling a US public media system that took a century to build – https://theconversation.com/trump-and-many-gop-lawmakers-want-to-end-all-funding-for-npr-and-pbs-unraveling-a-us-public-media-system-that-took-a-century-to-build-253206

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The Women’s Health Initiative has shaped women’s health for over 30 years, but its future is uncertain

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jean Wactawski-Wende, Professor of Public Health and Health Professions, University at Buffalo

    Women make up more than 50% of the population, yet before the 1990s they were largely excluded from health and medical research studies.

    To try to help correct this imbalance, in 1991 the National Institutes of Health launched a massive, long-term study called the Women’s Health Initiative, which is still running today. It is the largest, longest and most comprehensive study on women’s health ever conducted in the U.S. It also is one of the most productive studies in history, with more than 2,400 published scientific papers in leading medical journals.

    On April 20, 2025, the Department of Health and Human Services told the study’s lead investigators it plans to terminate much of the program’s funding and discontinue its regional center contracts. On April 24, after pushback from the medical community, HHS officials said the funding had been reinstated. But the reversal was never officially confirmed, so the study’s lead investigators – including me – remain concerned about its future.

    I am a public health researcher who has studied chronic disease prevention in women for nearly 40 years. I have been centrally involved with the Women’s Health Initiative since its inception and currently co-direct one of its four regional centers at the University at Buffalo.

    The project’s findings have shaped clinical practice, prevention strategies and public health policies across the U.S. and the world, particularly for older women. In my view, its loss would be a devastating blow to women’s health.

    An imperative to invest in women’s health

    The Women’s Health Initiative was established in response to a growing realization that very little medical research existed to inform health care that was specifically relevant to women. In the U.S. in the 1970s, for example, almost 40% of postmenopausal women were taking estrogen, but no large clinical trials had studied the risks and benefits. In 1985 an NIH task force outlined the need for long-term research on women’s health.

    Launched by Bernadine Healy, the first woman to serve as director of the NIH, the Women’s Health Initiative aimed to study ways to prevent heart disease, cancer and osteoporosis.

    About 42,000 women ages 78 to 108 remain active participants in the Women’s Health Initiative.
    Frazao Studio Latino/E+ via Getty Images

    Between 1993 and 1998, the project enrolled 161,808 postmenopausal women ages 50 to 79 to participate in four randomized clinical trials. Two of them investigated how menopausal hormone therapy affects the risk of heart disease, breast cancer, hip fractures and cognition. Another examined the effects of a low-fat, high-fiber diet on breast and colorectal cancers as well as heart disease. The fourth looked at whether taking calcium plus vitamin D supplements helps prevent hip fractures and colorectal cancer.

    Women could participate in just one or in multiple trials. More than 90,000 also took part in a long-term observational study that used medical records and surveys to probe the link between risk factors and disease outcomes over time.

    Clarifying the effects of hormone therapy

    Some of the most important findings from the Women’s Health Initiative addressed the effects of menopausal hormone therapy.

    The hormone therapy trial testing a combination of estrogen and progesterone was set to run until 2005. However, it was terminated early, in 2002, when results showed an increased risk in heart disease, stroke, blood clotting disorders and breast cancer, as well as cognitive decline and dementia. The trial of estrogen alone also raised safety concerns, though both types of therapy reduced the risk of bone fractures.

    After these findings were reported, menopausal hormone therapy prescriptions dropped sharply in the U.S. and worldwide. One study estimated that the decreased use of estrogen and progesterone therapy between 2002 and 2012 prevented as many as 126,000 breast cancer cases and 76,000 cardiovascular disease cases – and saved the U.S. an estimated US$35 billion in direct medical costs.

    Reanalyses of data from these studies over the past decade have provided a more nuanced clinical picture for safely using menopausal hormone therapy. They showed that the timing of treatment matters, and that when taken before age 60 or within 10 years of menopause, hormones have more limited risk.

    Defining clinical practice

    Although the Women’s Health Initiative’s four original clinical trials ended by 2005, researchers have continued to follow participants, collect new data and launch spinoff studies that shape health recommendations for women over 65.

    Almost a decade ago, for example, research at my institution and others found in a study of 6,500 women ages 63 to 99 that just 30 minutes of low to moderate physical activity was enough to significantly boost their health. The study led to changes in national public health guidelines. Subsequent studies are continuing to explore how physical activity affects aging and whether being less sedentary can protect women against heart disease.

    Bone health and preventing fractures have also been a major focus of the Women’s Health Initiative, with research helping to establish guidelines for osteoporosis screening and investigating the link between dietary protein intake and bone health.

    One of the Women’s Health Initiative’s biggest yields is its vast repository of health data collected annually from tens of thousands of women over more than 30 years. The data consists of survey responses on topics such as diet, physical activity and family history; information on major health outcomes such as heart disease, diabetes, cancer and cause of death, verified using medical records; and a trove of biological samples, including 5 million blood vials and genetic information from 50,000 participants.

    The Women’s Health Initiative set out to prevent heart disease, cancer and osteoporosis in menopausal women.

    Any researcher can access this repository to explore associations between blood biomarkers, disease outcomes, genes, lifestyle factors and other health features. More than 300 such studies are investigating health outcomes related to stroke, cancer, diabetes, eye diseases, mental health, physical frailty and more. Thirty are currently running.

    What does the future hold?

    In addition to data amassed by the Women’s Health Initiative until now, about 42,000 participants from all 50 states, now ages 78 to 108, are still actively contributing to the study. This cohort is a rare treasure: Very few studies have collected such detailed, long-term information on a broad group of women of this age. Meanwhile, the demographic of older women is growing quickly.

    Continuing to shed light on aging, disease risk and prevention in this population is vital. The questions guiding the project’s ongoing and planned research directly address the chronic diseases that Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced as national priorities.

    So I hope that the Women’s Health Initiative can continue to generate discoveries that support women’s health well into the future.

    Jean Wactawski-Wende receives funding from the NIH.

    – ref. The Women’s Health Initiative has shaped women’s health for over 30 years, but its future is uncertain – https://theconversation.com/the-womens-health-initiative-has-shaped-womens-health-for-over-30-years-but-its-future-is-uncertain-255311

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A law seeks to protect children from sex offenders − 20 years later, the jury is still out

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Boaz Dvir, Associate Professor of Journalism, Penn State

    Mark Lunsford appears at a July 2005 rally in support of the Children’s Safety Act on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

    Before his sentencing in March 2025, a convicted child rapist asked for a judgment that would have set him free in 2027. The Kansas resident received 25 years with no chance of parole.

    The reason? Jessica’s Law, which Kansas lawmakers passed in 2006.

    Kansas was one of the first states to follow Florida’s initial enactment of Jessica’s Law 20 years ago in response to the rape and murder of 9-year-old Jessica “Jessie” Lunsford in Homosassa, Florida. Forty-four other states have followed, altering how America polices, punishes and paroles pedophiles.

    Although the law differs in some details from state to state, it generally directs judges to sentence people convicted of sex crimes involving children to a minimum of 25 years. Jessica’s Law also monitors offenders’ movements after prison and strives to keep them away from places where children congregate, such as schools and parks.

    Many policymakers, prosecutors, defense attorneys and judges have protested key aspects of the law. They are particularly opposed to its strict minimum sentencing guidelines, which they’ve described as oversimplified and counterproductive.

    Proponents, however, point to the law’s origins: Jessica’s February 2005 abduction, rape and murder by a repeat, convicted sex offender. They maintain the crime, which riveted the country for months and sent the third grader’s father, Mark, on a national child protection crusade, exposed deep-seated flaws in law enforcement and the legal system that made children around the country vulnerable to sexual assault.

    Jessica’s Law remains mostly intact throughout the country. But it has come under scrutiny and has undergone changes. As a journalism professor who directed a documentary about Lunsford’s efforts to convince politicians to pass the law that bears his daughter’s name, I’ve kept up with its trials and tribulations.

    Twenty years after Florida introduced the law, the jury is still out on whether America’s children are safer as a result.

    ‘Jessie’s Dad’

    In making “Jessie’s Dad,” I filmed Lunsford visiting state capitals and Capitol Hill and interviewed many of his allies and detractors. I also reviewed interrogation footage and newsreels, attended the trial of John Couey – Jessica’s killer – and pored over proposed and passed bills, court transcripts and police records.

    The resulting 2011 documentary highlights the law’s major perceived pros and cons.

    The most glaring of the legal system’s shortcomings before Jessica’s Law, according to Lunsford and other activist groups, was lax treatment by the police and courts. That, they said, allowed many sex offenders who target children to roam free.

    As Lunsford hopscotched from state to state to push for the law’s passage, he often noted that prior to raping and killing Jessie, Couey was convicted twice of molesting children but served only fractions of his sentences.

    “One time they gave him (Couey) a 10-year sentence; he did two years,” Lunsford told me. “One time, he (Couey) broke into a house and assaulted a child, and he would’ve gotten more time had he stolen their silverware.”

    Most of the states that have enacted Jessica’s Law direct judges to sentence child rapists to a minimum of 25 years in prison.

    Besides mandatory minimum sentencing, most states that have passed Jessica’s Law require sex-offender parolees to wear a GPS monitor − something Couey never did.

    Lunsford repeatedly pointed out that an electronic ankle bracelet, which tells the police the location of the person wearing it, could have led the police to Couey’s room in his sister’s trailer across the street from the Lunsford’s mobile home. That’s where Couey kept Jessie for three days before burying her alive in a backyard grave.

    Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger appears at an October 2006 news conference urging Californians to support Proposition 83, also known as ‘Jessica’s Law.’ The governor was joined by Mark Lunsford, left, father of Jessica Lunsford.
    Al Seib/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images

    ‘Romeo and Juliet’ provisions

    In 2007, soon after Ohio passed its version of the law, Lunsford’s son Josh faced felony charges for fondling his 14-year-old girlfriend. The girl’s mother, who disapproved of their relationship, turned him in as soon as he turned 18 and became an adult in the eyes of the legal system. Josh ended up being charged with a misdemeanor, to which he pleaded guilty. He served 10 days in jail and 12 months under supervised release.

    Reeling from this incident, the elder Lunsford advocated amending Jessica’s Law with so-called Romeo and Juliet provisions. These stipulations typically exempt most young adults from harsh sentencing when the age difference between them and their romantic teen partners adds up to fewer than four or five years.

    Pennsylvania, the second state after Florida to pass Jessica’s Law in 2006, became the first to add a Romeo and Juliet provision in 2011.

    Today, 44 states have likewise adopted similar provisions.

    Legal challenges, too, have revamped parts of Jessica’s Law in some states. In 2015, for instance, California’s Supreme Court ruled the law violated the U.S. Constitution by infringing offenders’ liberty and privacy.

    The law did so, the court determined, by universally ordering registered sex offenders to stay at least 2,000 feet away from schools and other places where children congregate. That meant they could not live within 2,000 feet of a school or places where children gathered.

    Prior to the ruling, the Jessica’s Law residency restriction left many of California’s registered sex offenders with few viable housing options. It thus forced scores of them onto the streets and contributed to the Golden State’s homelessness crisis.

    Critics have also noted it is difficult to monitor homeless pedophiles.

    Although the California Supreme Court ruling technically applied only to San Diego County, it has spurred other parts of the state to restrict residency on a case-by-case basis.

    Electronic tracking

    Another divisive Jessica’s Law stipulation, however, may be too complex to simply modify.

    When included in the original Florida law, electronic tracking appeared to hold great promise.

    Today, 38 additional states electronically monitor sex offenders. Yet many accused and paroled sex offenders wearing ankle bracelets have nonetheless harmed children.

    For instance, David Renz broke free of his GPS monitor in 2013 while awaiting a child pornography trial in New York and raped a fourth grader. He also killed the 10-year-old girl’s protector and school librarian, Lori Bresnahan.

    While others harmed children after cutting off their ankle bracelets, some, like Arkansas resident Leontarius Reed, committed sex crimes while wearing GPS devices. Reed was wearing the device after a previous nonsexual offense.

    Critics claim electronic monitoring numbs society into a misleading state of comfort. Others argue it’s better than losing track of sex offenders. They also say it deters crime and has saved countless lives.

    Despite the widespread adoption of Jessica’s Law, comprehensive research is still needed to measure its impact. Such a project would examine whether America’s children are truly safer now than they were on May 1, 2005.

    Boaz Dvir does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A law seeks to protect children from sex offenders − 20 years later, the jury is still out – https://theconversation.com/a-law-seeks-to-protect-children-from-sex-offenders-20-years-later-the-jury-is-still-out-251762

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: When presidents try to make peace: What Trump could learn from Teddy Roosevelt, Carter, Clinton and his own first term

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Andrew E. Busch, Professor and Associate Director, Institute of American Civics, University of Tennessee

    U.S. President Theodore Roosevelt, center, introduces Russian and Japanese delegates during negotiations at the Portsmouth Peace Conference in Kittery, Maine, in August 1905. Hulton Archive/Getty Images

    Throughout his 2024 campaign for the presidency, Donald Trump made diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine-Russia war a major priority, suggesting that he could bring peace within “24 hours.” Even before Trump resumed office in January 2025, as president-elect he named envoys and held preliminary discussions with a variety of leaders.

    Since Trump returned to the White House, he has talked with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, met twice with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and made frequent public comments on the war.

    How does Trump’s mediation effort stack up historically? I’m a scholar of the presidency, and while we don’t yet know the outcome of the Trump-led negotiations, we do know one thing: He’s not conducting them in the ways presidents – including Trump himself – have conducted them in the past.

    President Donald Trump erupted at Volodymyr Zelenskyy during a meeting on Feb. 28, 2025, angrily sending the Ukrainian leader out of the White House because he was ‘not ready’ for peace with Russia.
    Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images

    Some worked, others didn’t

    There are several examples of presidents who attempted to play a mediating role in foreign conflicts.

    Theodore Roosevelt: Roosevelt won a Nobel Peace Prize for his contributions to ending the 1904-05 Russo-Japanese War, fought over control of Manchuria and Sakhalin Island. Roosevelt had been asked to mediate by Japan, and Russia agreed. In many ways, this episode marked the beginning of the role of the U.S. president as a world leader.

    Jimmy Carter: Carter’s greatest presidential success arguably came in the Camp David Accords, the framework for peace negotiated in 1978 between Israel and Egypt after decades of conflict. Carter did not win a Nobel Prize for his accomplishment, but Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin did.

    Bill Clinton: Clinton made two ambitious attempts to broker peace between old adversaries. One ended in success, the other in failure.

    Clinton’s envoy, former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell, mediated an accord between the British government, the Republic of Ireland and the warring factions in Northern Ireland that was signed on Good Friday 1998.

    On the other hand, one of Clinton’s greatest frustrations was a failed attempt to arrange peace between Israel and the Palestinians. Clinton blamed the failure on Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat walking away from a deal in 2000. Instead, peace efforts were supplanted by a Palestinian uprising that killed an estimated 1,053 Israeli civilians by early 2005.

    Dealing with a third situation – the wars set off by the disintegration of Yugoslavia– the Clinton administration also obtained an agreement over Bosnia in the 1995 Dayton Accords when the parties were sufficiently exhausted.

    Donald Trump: In his first presidency, Trump himself brokered the September 2000 Abraham Accords that established formal diplomatic relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco. The accords, brought about largely through negotiations led by Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, had strategic aims of putting greater pressure for peace on the Palestinians and strengthening a common front against Iran. (The Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel by Hamas may have been an attempt to stop subsequent efforts to extend the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia.)

    Although all of these examples involved presidential leadership and involvement, they did not follow a single model.

    How they did it

    Former President Bill Clinton bows as he meets former U.S. Sen. George Mitchell, who spearheaded peace negotiations on behalf of Clinton that led to the end of 30 years of conflict in Northern Ireland.
    Liam McBurney/PA Images via Getty Images

    Roosevelt never attended the peace negotiations over the Russo-Japanese War in Portsmouth, but he actively offered proposals through intermediaries before and during the conference. The final stages of negotiation were held on his yacht, the Mayflower.

    Carter’s breakthrough came when he engaged in intense personal diplomacy at Camp David, where he, Sadat and Begin were sequestered for 13 days. To complete the deal, Carter had to shuffle back and forth between the principals and at one point had to make a frantic appeal to Sadat not to leave.

    Clinton’s unsuccessful efforts to broker an agreement between Arafat and a succession of Israeli prime ministers extended over the duration of his two-term presidency and frequently involved personal meetings and exchanges.

    On the other hand, Clinton’s involvement in the Northern Ireland resolution did not primarily come in the form of personal diplomacy at the end of the process. Rather, he set the conditions for a settlement earlier when he approved a visa for Irish Republican leader Gerry Adams to enter the U.S., against the wishes of Britain and Clinton’s own advisers.

    When Clinton went to Belfast for a Christmas tree lighting in 1995, he brought together Catholic leaders committed to the unification of Ireland and Protestant leaders loyal to Britain. First lady Hillary Clinton also contributed by meeting with Irish women’s organizations on both sides.

    In contrast, in the Dayton process Clinton was later portrayed by chief negotiator Richard Holbrooke as essentially disengaged.

    Not like the others

    Although each mediation effort was unique, there were some commonalities.

    First, where sensitive issues of land possession were involved, many of the negotiations benefited from privacy in the process.

    Second, successful mediations came most often when the U.S. was neutral, such as in the Portsmouth negotiations, or friendly toward both parties to some degree, such as with the Camp David, Good Friday and Abraham negotiations. Dayton was the exception in that the U.S. had become quite hostile toward the Serbs.

    In Ukraine, Trump is attempting to mediate a conflict in which, until now, the U.S. has been firmly and materially supportive of one side against the other. And he is attempting to do it by publicly making, so far, proposals that were destined to be toxic to the Ukrainian public.

    Trump appears to be violating the first rule above – no public negotiations over land – in order to chase compliance with the second, which is no mediation without neutrality. By, among other things, publicly offering proposals that the Ukrainians see as one-sided against them, Trump has largely erased the image of the U.S. as pro-Ukraine.

    This is a highly controversial and risky strategy that has damaged relations with U.S. allies and cost the U.S. moral capital in pursuit of an uncertain peace.

    Whatever success Trump ultimately achieves, it is little surprise that the effort, which has been pursued over a period of six months so far, has been more difficult than he anticipated.

    Andrew E. Busch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. When presidents try to make peace: What Trump could learn from Teddy Roosevelt, Carter, Clinton and his own first term – https://theconversation.com/when-presidents-try-to-make-peace-what-trump-could-learn-from-teddy-roosevelt-carter-clinton-and-his-own-first-term-255550

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –