Category: housing

MIL-OSI Europe: Written question – Priority for Europeans in access to housing in the light of rises in poor housing and homelessness – P-000688/2025
Source: European Parliament
Priority question for written answer P-000688/2025
to the Commission
Rule 144
Jean-Paul Garraud (PfE)

Recent reports by the European Federation of National Organisations Working with the Homeless paint an alarming picture of poor-quality housing in Europe getting worse. A million people are reported to be homeless, while 19.2 million live in unsafe housing. Although the EU has taken a number of initiatives in that area, policy responses have still not been able to curb the crisis, which affects, first and foremost, Europeans facing hardship.

At the same time, significant sums are invested through public policies into putting up newly arrived immigrants in specific accommodation facilities. This state of affairs calls into question what the priorities are with regard to housing and social assistance.

1.To what extent does the Commission consider Member State policies to combat poor housing and homelessness effective, particularly for Europeans facing hardship?

2.Does it have an assessment of the impact of EU funds allocated to social housing and emergency accommodation, in particular, as regards the balance between Europeans facing hardship and new immigrants?

3.Does it intend, with a view to combating homelessness and poor housing effectively, to encourage Member States to reserve a minimum share of social housing and emergency aid for Europeans?

Submitted: 13.2.2025
Last updated: 18 February 2025
MIL OSI Europe News –
February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Europe: Briefing – Cyprus’s climate action strategy – 18-02-2025

Source: European Parliament

In 2023, Cyprus accounted for around 0.3 % of the EU’s net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and achieved a net emissions reduction of 5.6 % compared with 2005. The country’s total emissions decreased by 4.7 % between 2005 and 2023, while its net carbon removals in the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector increased by 36 %. Emissions from sectors covered by the effort-sharing legislation have increased by 7.9 % since 2005, and in 2023 were slightly higher than those from sectors under the EU emissions trading system (ETS), which were down 14.9 % over the same period. Although Cyprus intends to reach zero net emissions in 2050 (see trajectory in Figure 1), the level of progress towards the EU climate neutrality objective appears to be insufficient. The European Commission assessed Cyprus’s draft updated national energy and climate plan (NECP) and made recommendations. The final updated NECP was submitted in December 2024. Almost half of Cyprus’s national recovery and resilience plan, which includes a REPowerEU chapter, is dedicated to the green transition, with a focus on energy and transport. In a 2023 survey, 39 % of Cypriots, compared with a 46 % EU average, identified climate change as one of the four most serious problems facing the world. Most expect the national government (69 %), business and industry (67 %) and/or the EU (63 %) to tackle climate change, while 41 % think it is a personal responsibility.

MIL OSI Europe News –

February 19, 2025
MIL-Evening Report: More than half of Australia’s homes were built before fire standards came in. Here are 5 ways to retrofit them

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Subha Parida, Lecturer in Property, University of South Australia

Carl Oberg/Shutterstock

Houses and fire do not mix. The firestorm which hit Los Angeles in January destroyed nearly 2,000 buildings and forced 130,000 people to evacuate.

The 2019–20 Australian megafires destroyed almost 2,800 homes. This summer, houses and buildings have been lost in Victoria, Western Australia and Tasmania.

As temperatures inch upwards, bushfires will become more severe and more frequent, posing risks to more homes. But fires don’t affect homes equally. Older homes built before fire resilience standards became mandatory are at higher risk of going up in flames.

In the aftermath of the devastating LA fires, there are signs that newer homes have fared better than older ones. Previous fires in California and Australia have shown newer homes built with fire-resilient features are more likely to survive than older homes.

The problem is, more than half (55%) of Australia’s homes were built 30 or more years ago – before national standards for fire resilience were introduced.

The good news: you can take action to make older homes more resilient.

Why are new homes better able to survive bushfires?

Location, vegetation and luck play a role in determining which houses survive fires. But there is also evidence newer homes with heat- and ember-resistant features survive better.

Construction standards in both Australia and the United States require the use of materials and designs which reduce fire risk.

In Australia, the national construction standards have been in place since the early 1990s. Over time, the standards have expanded to include more fire-resistant features, such as fire-resistant external walls.

By contrast, older homes are more likely to be built of flammable materials such as wood and untreated timber. Older homes are also more likely to have mature trees and shrubs closer to the house, which can increase fire risk. But as the CSIRO Bushfire Best Practice Guide points out, “trees can also be used to shield against wind, absorb radiant heat, and to filter embers […] when located at a safe distance from the house”.

More exacting construction standards apply for homes built in areas considered at risk of bushfire. State and territory governments have interactive maps of these areas.

Unfortunately, climate change is expanding these areas at risk. As the LA wildfires show, warmer climates mean fire can attack suburbs and cities thought to be safe from bushfire.

Climate change is also making home ownership more expensive, as insurance premiums rise in the wake of more expensive disasters. Analysts predict banks may begin rejecting mortgage applications for properties in areas at high risk from fire.

Older homes are more likely to burn if a bushfire comes through.
Ekaterina Kamenetsky/Shutterstock

How can we make older homes more resilient?

Older homes remain highly sought after, especially in cities such as Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.

But for these homes to be brought up to modern standards of bushfire resistance, they often require significant retrofitting. These retrofits can drastically reduce the risk of ignition.

How do houses actually ignite? Wind-blown embers are a common cause in starting house fires. If a few houses in a town start burning, the fire can spread house to house.

Here are 5 ways to protect your older house:

1. Upgrade external vents. Traditional external vents are designed to ventilate rooms and roofs. But they also permit embers to gain access to attics and crawl spaces and spark a fire. Upgrading to ember-resistant vents can directly improve your home’s resilience.

2. Install ember gutter guards. Ember-resistant gutter guards are made of metal and have finer mesh than normal gutter guards. These help to prevent the build-up of dry leaves and twigs and stop small embers from landing.

3. Upgrade windows and walls. You can cut your risk further by installing bushfire-resistant shutters for windows, using fire-resistant material for wall insulation and replacing combustible material with better alternatives such as metal roofing, fibre cement siding for walls and tempered glass windows.

4. Check your deck and verandah. Wooden decks and verandahs are risky in high-risk areas. If they need to be rebuilt, choose fire-resistant materials.

5. Make space around your home. In fire-prone areas, removing trees and shrubs within 20 metres of the house can reduce risk. A well-managed area of pavers and low-density plants and shrubs close to the home acts as a fire break.

Ahead of fire season, making and updating an evacuation plan is equally vital. Homeowners should prepare emergency kits with essential documents, medications, and protective gear. If a fire starts in your area, applying fire-retardant gels to surfaces at risk can provide temporary protection.

In high risk areas, ensuring clear space between vegetation and the house can cut fire risk. Pictured: a house in Balmoral, New South Wales, after fire passed through in 2020.
Daria Nipot/Shutterstock

Homeowners can use the National Emergency Management Authority’s bushfire resilience rating app to assess their home’s bushfire risk and to see which retrofits are highest priority.

State or territory governments offer advice on making your house more resistant to fire attack: New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania, Northern Territory, Australian Capital Territory.

Protecting our homes takes time – and money

Australia’s housing crisis has been front page news for months. As we head towards the federal election, it will remain a hot-button issue. Unfortunately, we haven’t yet heard discussion of the risk posed to our housing stock from bushfires made worse by climate change.

While planning controls and building standards can raise the standards of future homes, better support and incentives are needed to retrofit existing homes – especially for those built before fire safety standards became the norm.

Retrofitting is crucial. But it’s not cheap. Costs can range from A$8,500 to $47,000 per property.

These expenses can be prohibitive for many homeowners. Initiatives such as the Bushfire Resilience Rating Home Self-Assessment app can result in insurers offering premium discounts to homeowners using it to introduce recommended measures.

In some areas, local governments offer financial assistance for retrofitting, such as the Bushfire Wise Rebate by Ku-ring-gai Council in NSW.

Without greater financial support or government incentives, a significant portion of Australia’s housing stock will remain vulnerable, increasing risks as climate change expands fire-prone areas.

Subha Parida receives receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI)

Lyrian Daniel receives funding from the National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC), the Australian Research Council (ARC) and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI).

Michaela Lang receives funding from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI).

– ref. More than half of Australia’s homes were built before fire standards came in. Here are 5 ways to retrofit them – https://theconversation.com/more-than-half-of-australias-homes-were-built-before-fire-standards-came-in-here-are-5-ways-to-retrofit-them-249490

MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

February 19, 2025
MIL-Evening Report: How to protect more Australian homes from the growing risks of floods, fires and other climate disasters

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Annette Kroen, Research Fellow Planning and Transport, RMIT University

The cleanup is underway in northern Queensland following the latest flooding catastrophe to hit the state. More than 7,000 insurance claims have already been lodged, most of them for inundated homes and other structures.

The Queensland floods are a reminder that climate-induced natural disasters are becoming more frequent and severe in Australia. Recent reports have identified the high number of Australian homes that are vulnerable to the increased risks of floods, coastal erosion and bushfires.

Despite the evidence of escalating danger to homes and communities, we are ill-prepared for severe weather events. A new report from the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute spells out the case for better integration, especially of urban planning processes. This is urgently needed to reduce the exposure of housing to growing disaster risks.

Top priorities for planning authorities must include an end to building homes in the wrong locations, such as flood zones, and improving the resilience of dwellings to disaster hazards.

Poor coordination

At the national level, there is little integration of the three pillars of sound strategy: housing policy, settlement planning and disaster management. For example, neither housing policy nor planning frameworks incorporate disaster preparedness or mitigation.

A focus on disaster response and recovery also hinders proper coordination in the disaster prevention area, even though avoidance in the first place is clearly more cost effective.

However, this may be changing. Both the Issues Paper for the National Housing and Homelessness Plan and State of the Housing System report have acknowledged climate change and natural disasters are risk factors affecting housing.

And the National Urban Policy includes “sustainable and resilient” as one of its three major goals for liveable cities.

At the state and territory level, there is more clearly defined coordination through state emergency management planning. It also occurs via fire agencies that advise on planning proposals.

In New South Wales, the NSW Reconstruction Authority is responsible for developing and implementing the State Disaster Mitigation Plan and for housing recovery.

This means settlement planning and relevant housing issues are directly under the auspices of the agency responsible for disaster prevention and recovery. This is one way to improve integration, but further coordination with housing and planning agencies would be desirable.

Greater focus on risk reduction

Relevant Australian agencies are enhancing their approaches to disaster management in relation to housing. But housing policy still needs to accord greater priority to disaster risk reduction. This includes the location and resilience of housing relative to climate change hazards, such as fires and floods.

In settlement planning, tensions between disaster risk reduction and economic and other development goals need to be addressed. Planning processes and policies to move communities away from risk areas via managed retreat and possibly compensation schemes must be developed.

We can look to international experience for guidance. In Quebec, Canada the provincial government offered significant funding towards property buybacks after floods in 2017 and 2019. It also introduced a cap on disaster aid in high risk locations. Bylaw regulations banned any new developments or reconstruction.

Households had to decide to either relocate or bear the cost of repeated disaster recovery. This strategy is an example of a successful relocation plan in an area at risk of repeated future flooding.

The strategy received a relatively positive response from the affected municipalities and homeowners, potentially due to the generous buyout offers.

This example illustrates the need for policies to manage disaster risk and urban development much more clearly.

Better integration needed

A whole of government approach that establishes clear policy and planning responsibilities would improve integration. It would also allow agencies to develop clearer strategies for the task. Improved data availability and harmonisation of risk identification would further support good decision making by housing and planning agencies.

At the operational level, more staff exchanges between housing, planning, and emergency agencies would support capacity building.

Detailed evaluations of housing experiences and planning outcomes from previous disasters would underpin improvements and integration. This occurs to some extent through formal statutory inquiries into disasters.

A standardised evaluation for housing and planning agencies would provide more focused insights. One idea is to gauge temporary housing programs to build an inventory of suitable and available temporary housing types.

In addition to coordination between government agencies, there is also a need to better communicate with the public on potential disaster risks. Local communities need to be included in planning, both for short-term disaster management and longer-term resettlement decisions.

If we fail to better integrate housing policy with disaster preparation, we will continue to build on flood plains and other high risk areas. People, and their homes, will remain on the front line of deadly natural disasters.

Annette Kroen receives funding from Natural Hazards Research Australia and the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute.

RMIT University receives finding from AHURI and NHRA to support Jago Dodson’s research which is relevant to this article, as well as a range of other funding sources.

– ref. How to protect more Australian homes from the growing risks of floods, fires and other climate disasters – https://theconversation.com/how-to-protect-more-australian-homes-from-the-growing-risks-of-floods-fires-and-other-climate-disasters-249860

MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Global: Net-zero homes are touted as a solution for climate change, but they remain out of reach for most

Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi, Visiting Senior Researcher, Smart Structures Research Group, University of British Columbia

Net-zero homes play an important role in combating climate change. (Shutterstock)

Net-zero homes use natural energy sources and are designed to use less energy and, as such, are considered important in the fight against climate change. But for the average Canadian, they’re still out of reach.

Net-zero homes are important for tackling climate change. This includes both net-zero energy (NZE) homes, which produce as much energy as they use each year, and net-zero carbon (NZC) homes, which don’t release any carbon dioxide.

Released in the summer of 2024, the Canada Green Buildings Strategy outlines a bold vision to transform the country’s building sector, aiming for net-zero emissions and enhanced resilience by 2050. This is a bold step forward, but transforming the sector will require sustained collaboration across all levels of government, industry and communities.

CTV News covers the federal government’s Green Buildings Strategy.

Net-zero homes use green energy sources and efficient designs to match the amount of energy they produce with the amount they use. They use strategies like thermal shells that use less energy, high-performance components and the addition of green energy systems.

Net-zero homes also help Canada reach larger climate goals by reducing the amount of carbon dioxide it releases into the air.

Purchasing and installing these technologies can be cost-prohibitive, but in the long run, homeowners both save money on power bills and reduce their greenhouse gas emissions.

Those who are unable to make changes to their homes can still live in a net-zero way by buying green power or carbon offsets.

The sustainable housing market

Net-zero homes are becoming more popular in Canada. To speed up building processes and reduce costs, builders are trying out pre-fabricated and modular building techniques.

In 2024, the Canadian federal government announced a $600 million package of loans and funding to help make it easier and cheaper to build homes. This funding will support innovative technologies like pre-fabricated and modular construction, robotics, 3D-printing and mass timber to build homes faster and cheaper.

Read more:
Canada’s housing crisis: Innovative tech must come with policy reform

The Net Zero Council of the Canadian Home Builders’ Association has also been important in enhancing standards and practices and promoting novel approaches that cut costs while still being environmentally friendly. In doing so, CHBA drives the adoption of cheaper, environmentally friendly technologies and processes, enhancing industry standards and practices across Canada.

While CHBA collaborates with government agencies, such as Natural Resources Canada to promote innovation and elevate industry standards. Government programs typically provide funding, technical support and policy guidance, whereas CHBA focuses on training, best practices and market development for its members.

Government research programs through CanmetENERGY also work to improve technologies and give builders and planners the tools they need.

There are several reasons that owning a net-zero home has not yet become widespread. These include: high initial costs, limited awareness and education, gaps in policy and regulation and market challenges including difficulties in scaling up and integrating net-zero technologies.

Future directions

To make net-zero homes accessible to all Canadians, a multi-faceted approach is required.

Increased subsidies and incentives and expanding financial support for both builders and buyers can lower barriers to entry. The government of Canada’s 2030 Emission Reduction Plan includes $9.1 billion in new investments over the next eight years — adding to the $17 billion announced in 2021 — to support decarbonization efforts.

Enhancing public awareness and developing educational campaigns highlighting the cost savings and environmental benefits of net-zero homes are both essential approaches to raising awareness and support.

Policy reform can accelerate adoption of net-zero homes. Examples include harmonizing building codes and introducing mandatory energy efficiency standards to accelerate adoption.

Supporting continued research into technical innovation and developing cost-effective materials and renewable energy systems will drive down costs. Investment in modern methods of construction should be prioritized to accelerate the transition toward sustainable and energy-efficient building practices.

Partnerships between governments, private developers and non-profits can bring together resources and expertise to scale net-zero housing initiatives.

The Sustainable Finance Action Council recommends steps to mobilize private capital to support decarbonization and climate resilience in the Canadian economy, including in the housing sector.

Solar panels the roofs of apartment buildings in Munich, Germany.
(Shutterstock)

Successful international models

Several countries have demonstrated how net-zero homes can become a reality through innovative policies, community-driven approaches and public-private partnerships:

BedZED in the United Kingdom is the country’s first eco-village project. It uses community-focused design and renewables to significantly cut carbon footprints.

The Passive House standard is a German housing policy that sets a global benchmark for ultra-low energy consumption, emphasizing airtight construction and heat recovery.

California’s ambitious Zero Net Energy policies help reduce overall carbon footprints by driving cutting-edge home construction practices.

The Net Zero Energy House (ZEH) Program in Japan encourages advanced insulation, efficient appliances and rooftop solar.

The Netherlands is a leader in innovative, large-scale retrofitting for net-zero housing, most notably through the Energiesprong program.

These international models highlight that success lies in integrating strong policy frameworks, advanced technology and collaborative practices. They demonstrate that with the right mix of government support, industry innovation and residents embracing green choices, net-zero living can become more widespread.

Housing is an important part of how to address climate change. As Canada pushes to make net-zero homes more affordable, each step forward strengthens communities, reduces greenhouse gas emissions and helps homeowners save money.

Dr Ehsan Noroozinejad Farsangi has secured funding to develop innovative solutions for housing and climate crises.

T.Y. Yang does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Net-zero homes are touted as a solution for climate change, but they remain out of reach for most – https://theconversation.com/net-zero-homes-are-touted-as-a-solution-for-climate-change-but-they-remain-out-of-reach-for-most-247622

MIL OSI – Global Reports –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Europe: Piero Cipollone: Striking the right balance: the ECB’s balance sheet and its implications for monetary policy

Source: European Central Bank

Speech by Piero Cipollone, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at an MNI Connect webcast

Frankfurt am Main, 18 February 2025

Today I would like to discuss the ECB’s balance sheet and its implications for our monetary policy.

In recent years, the monetary policy debate has mainly focused on our interest rate decisions. This is for good reason. In response to the biggest inflation shock in a generation, we embarked on the fastest tightening of monetary policy in the ECB’s history through rate hikes.

During this tightening phase, we used policy rates as the primary tool for setting our monetary policy stance, while normalising our balance sheet in a measured and predictable way. We initiated the gradual unwinding of our asset purchase programmes and recalibrated our targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTROs).^[1] As a result, the size of our balance sheet has fallen by more than a quarter from its peak.

Policy rates remain our primary instrument and will therefore continue to attract the most attention. But we should not underestimate the important role that our balance sheet policies have played over time as a component of our overall monetary policy stance and in ensuring the smooth transmission of our monetary policy to the real economy. This still holds true today as we make our monetary policy less restrictive.

Inflation has now fallen substantially to levels close to 2%. Our latest projections foresee it converging towards our target over the medium term, and the risks to the inflation outlook – once sharply skewed to the upside – have now become more balanced.

At the same time, the euro area’s economic recovery remains weak – especially in the near term. The risks to the growth outlook are tilted to the downside and, if they materialise, may derail the recovery, with implications for the inflation outlook.

Against this background, the Governing Council has gradually been reducing the degree of monetary policy restriction by cutting policy rates towards neutral territory. While our direction is clear, we are very attentive to incoming information in view of the prevailing uncertainty about the economic environment. We continue to make decisions on a meeting-by-meeting and data-dependent basis. This gives us the option to adapt our interest rate path if necessary to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at our 2% medium-term target.

However, given the importance of financial conditions in determining the inflation outlook, we also need to consider the role played by the reduction of our balance sheet. In the tightening phase our rate decisions and balance sheet policies complemented each other, but they are now going in opposing directions.

This divergence has important implications across at least two dimensions.

First, it contributes to a steepening of the yield curve. Our rate cuts exert downward pressure primarily at the short end of the yield curve. At the same time, the gradual runoff of our asset purchase portfolios exerts upward pressure on long-term and, to a lesser extent, intermediate yields. This has been compounded by recent spillovers from the US.^[2]

Second, it may affect credit supply. Declining levels of central bank liquidity could constrain banks’ ability to extend credit, resulting in tighter credit conditions and potentially slowing down the investment and consumption that are critical for economic recovery.

In setting the policy stance, we therefore need to consider the impact of the overall set of financial conditions resulting from our interest rate and balance sheet policies. In other words, we need to strike the right balance if we are to achieve our inflation aim without an undue negative impact on incomes and employment. A rate cut has a more contained easing effect when the balance sheet is simultaneously reduced. This has implications when discussing the appropriate policy rate path.

We also need to consider the potential risks to the transmission of our monetary policy. In the past, abundant levels of liquidity have acted as a safeguard against spikes in liquidity needs that emerged regardless of where our rates stood. With this in mind, we need to carefully monitor the transition from abundant to less ample excess liquidity, mindful of the potential implications for financial stability.

Today, I would like to take stock of the ECB’s experience with balance sheet policies, explaining why they remain a vital part of our monetary policy toolbox. I will then discuss the implications of the ECB’s balance sheet for our monetary policy in the current environment.

The ECB’s experience with balance sheet policies

At the ECB, balance sheet policies have served a dual purpose over time, allowing us to deliver on our price stability mandate amid exceptionally difficult circumstances.

First, during periods when interest rates approached their effective lower bound and inflation remained below target, the ECB used asset purchases to support an accommodative monetary policy stance.

For instance, the ECB launched its asset purchase programme (APP) in 2015 to stimulate the economy and inflation at a time when deflationary threats loomed large. Asset purchases and the associated provision of central bank liquidity worked in several ways – including through the portfolio rebalancing, exchange rate and credit channels – to generate a significant upward effect on both economic activity and inflation.^[3]

Second, balance sheet policies have been pivotal to ensuring the smooth transmission of our monetary policy to the real economy, in both tightening and easing phases.

At times when we were lowering our policy rates, our TLTROs, launched in 2014, provided banks with long-term funding on favourable terms to incentivise them to lend to firms and households. This led to a persistent compression in lending rates and an increase in loan volumes over time.^[4]

But balance sheet policies were also instrumental in ensuring the smooth transmission of monetary policy at times when we were increasing our policy rates. The announcement of our Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) in 2022 allowed us to embark on the fastest rate hiking cycle in our history without sparking financial fragmentation in the euro area.

Of course, the stance and transmission functions of our balance sheet policies do not operate in isolation. There can be beneficial interactions between the two.

As rates increased, for example, euro area banks had sufficient liquidity to manage any maturity mismatches that arose. This – alongside strengthened regulation and supervision – helped them to emerge unscathed from the market turbulence in March 2023 that saw the collapse of three regional banks in the United States.

The proportionate use of balance sheet policies in an evolving economic landscape

The substantial expansion of the ECB’s balance sheet required careful monitoring of potential side effects. That is why the principle of proportionality lies at the core of how we use our balance sheet instruments.^[5]

In its 2021 strategy review, the Governing Council assessed that its use of balance sheet measures – alongside negative interest rates and forward guidance – had indeed been proportionate, taking into account any side effects, for instance on inequality and the financial sector.^[6]

Some concerns, however, require a more nuanced perspective.

For example, there is little evidence to suggest that excessive risk appetite may be attributable to larger central bank balance sheets. If this were the case, we should have seen less risk-taking in markets as central banks began to withdraw their market footprint.

But the opposite has been the case. Today equity markets are near all-time highs. This may be due to “animal spirits”^[7], which have also been observed outside periods of central bank balance sheet growth. We saw them at play, for instance, during the dot-com bubble – a period when the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio hit its historic peak and central bank balance sheets were distinctly lean.

Moreover, as the Eurosystem gradually reduces its footprint in sovereign bond markets by reducing its holdings of euro area government bonds, concerns about the size of the balance sheet are becoming less and less justified (Chart 1).^[8]

Chart 1

Size of euro area government bond market and the Eurosystem’s market footprint

(left-hand scale: EUR billions; right-hand scale: percentages)

Sources: Eurosystem and Centralised Securities Database.

Notes: The chart shows the evolution of the size of the euro area government bond market and splits it into outright holdings (yellow) and mobilised collateral (green), as well as what is not held or mobilised as collateral with the Eurosystem (blue). The Eurosystem market footprint is a relative measure, computed as the share of the Eurosystem’s euro area government bond (EGB) holdings compared with the nominal amount outstanding. Outright holdings are EGBs held by the Eurosystem via purchase programmes, adjusted by EGBs lent back via the securities lending against cash collateral facilities. Mobilised collateral includes EGBs mobilised as collateral for open market operations. The latest observations are for 31 January 2025.

Going forward, an evolving economic landscape suggests that balance sheet policies could be increasingly useful as monetary policy instruments. Let me highlight two developments that are particularly relevant here.

First, the non-bank financial sector has grown considerably over time and is becoming increasingly relevant in the funding of the real economy.

In the euro area, the financial assets of non-banks have more than doubled since the global financial crisis.^[9] Compared with banks, non-banks are more responsive to monetary policy measures that influence longer-term interest rates, such as asset purchases.^[10] Given that non-banks adjust their portfolios more actively in response to changes in interest rates, this also increases the need for sufficient liquidity in the system to facilitate these adjustments.

Second, geopolitical fragmentation means that the global economy is becoming more shock prone and subject to higher levels of uncertainty (Chart 2).

Chart 2

Global Economic Policy Uncertainty index

(index)

Source: Bloomberg.

Note: The latest observation is for December 2024.

In this environment, we need to remember that the euro area is subject to fragmentation risk. A key lesson from the sovereign debt crisis is that balance sheet policies have been instrumental in making the euro area a more “normal” jurisdiction from the perspective of monetary policy.

As we navigate an increasingly complex economic landscape, the transition from abundant to less ample excess liquidity represents an inflection point that also requires close monitoring.

In this environment, banks’ liquidity needs are met via a broad mix of instruments under our new operational framework. These include our short-term main refinancing operations (MROs) and three-month longer-term refinancing operations (LTROs) and will also include – at a later stage – structural longer-term credit operations and a structural portfolio of securities.^[11]

However, the decline in excess liquidity warrants careful monitoring, as it could exert additional tightening pressures on financial and financing conditions, potentially exceeding the intended policy stance.

The implications of the ECB’s balance sheet for monetary policy in the current environment

It is in this context that I would like to talk about the implications of our balance sheet for monetary policy in the current environment.

The ECB’s balance sheet has been reduced at a faster pace than those of central banks in other major economies during their tightening cycles (Chart 3). So far, much of this decline can be attributed to banks’ repayments of TLTRO loans.^[12]

Chart 3

Central bank total assets

(index = 100 at the start of the respective policy rate hiking cycles)

Sources: Bloomberg and ECB calculations.

Notes: The x-axis starts on 21 July 2022, 16 March 2022 and 15 December 2021 for the Eurosystem, Federal Reserve System, and Bank of England respectively. For the Bank of England, reserve balances are used as a proxy for the total balance sheet. The latest observations are for 12 February 2025.

Looking ahead, however, any further reduction in the size of our balance sheet will stem from the gradual unwinding of our asset purchase portfolios, as the Eurosystem no longer reinvests the principal payments from maturing securities.

As in the past, the normalisation of our balance sheet has implications for our monetary policy stance and the possible risks to monetary policy transmission.

The monetary policy stance

Let me start with the implications for our monetary policy stance.

Our reaction function for rate decisions is built around three well-known criteria: (i) the inflation outlook, (ii) the dynamics of underlying inflation and (iii) the strength of monetary policy transmission.

Inflation has fallen by around three-quarters from its peak in late 2022 (Chart 4). The disinflation process is well on track, and our staff projections see inflation averaging 2.1% this year, 1.9% next year and 2.1% in 2027.

Chart 4

Headline inflation

(annual percentage changes)

Source: Eurostat.
Note: The latest observation is for January 2025 (flash estimate).

Most measures of underlying inflation suggest that inflation will settle at around our 2% medium-term target on a sustained basis. In particular, the ECB’s measure of the persistent and common component of inflation (PCCI)^[13] – a more forward-looking indicator of underlying inflationary pressures that tends to better predict future inflation – stood at 2.1% in December, and 2.0% when excluding energy.

Domestic inflation remains high, as wages and prices in certain sectors are still adjusting to the past inflation surge with a substantial delay. But our wage tracker is signalling a significant moderation in wage growth, and profits are partially buffering the impact on inflation.

It is the third leg of our reaction function – the strength of monetary policy transmission – that I would like to discuss in more detail, however.

As we cut interest rates, new borrowing for firms and households is becoming less expensive. But financing conditions continue to be tight – in part because our monetary policy remains restrictive and past rate hikes are still working their way through the economy.^[14]

While credit continues to expand, lending to firms and households remains subdued by historical standards. In December, the annual growth rate of lending to firms was roughly two-thirds below its historical average.^[15] Growth in housing loans increased gradually but also remained muted overall, at around one-fifth of its long-term average (Chart 5).^[16]

Chart 5

Loans to firms and households

(percentage points)

Sources: ECB (BSI) and ECB staff calculations.

Note: The latest observations are for December 2024.

At the same time, the recent gradual recovery in lending has not kept pace with the nominal growth of the economy, as reflected in the continued decline of the loan-to-GDP ratio (Chart 6).

Chart 6

Ratio of bank loans to GDP

(percentages)

Sources: ECB (BSI), Eurostat and ECB staff calculations.

Note: The latest observation is for the third quarter of 2024.

While policy rates remain our primary instrument for adjusting our monetary policy stance, the normalisation of our balance sheet may also affect the stance through two key channels.

First, while our rate cuts exert downward pressure primarily at the short end of the yield curve, our quantitative tightening exerts upward pressure on long-term maturities and, to a lesser extent, intermediate ones. This serves to tighten financial conditions.^[17]

Indeed, the runoff of the asset portfolios of central banks has arguably been one of several factors contributing to a steepening of sovereign yield curves in recent months – akin to a reversal of the duration risk channel previously associated with central banks through quantitative easing (Chart 7).

Chart 7

New duration risk absorbed by private investors

(EUR billions per basis point)

Sources: Bloomberg and ECB.

Notes: The chart shows the month-on-month change in the duration of government bonds held by private investors (i.e. investors other than the domestic central bank). Rates are approximated by weighted average maturity.

At its peak in early 2022, the impact of current and expected Eurosystem bond holdings in our asset portfolios lowered ten-year sovereign bond yields by around 175 basis points.^[18] Due to quantitative tightening, however, the easing impact has now fallen to around 75 basis points and is expected to further reduce over time (Chart 8).

Chart 8

Impact of APP and PEPP sovereign bond holdings on ten-year sovereign risk premia

(basis points)

Source: ECB calculations.

Notes: The impacts are derived from an affine arbitrage-free model of the term structure with a quantity factor (see Eser et al., op. cit.) and an alternative version of the model recalibrated so that the model-implied yield reactions to the March PEPP announcement match the two-day yield changes observed after 18 March 2020. The model results are derived using GDP-weighted averages of the zero-coupon yields of the big-four sovereign issuers (DE, FR, IT and ES). The continuous line represents estimates based on real-time survey expectations. The dashed line is based on projections of the Eurosystem’s holdings of big-four sovereign bonds in the APP and PEPP as informed by the ECB’s December 2024 Survey of Monetary Analysts. The model abstracts from any potential holdings in a structural portfolio of securities. The latest observations are for January 2025 (monthly data).

According to ECB research, an expected €1 trillion reduction in bond holdings may raise long-term risk-free interest rates by about 35 basis points (Chart 9).^[19]

Chart 9

Expected term premium impact from running down the asset portfolio by €1 trillion

(basis points)

Sources: ECB December 2024 Survey of Monetary Analysts (SMA) and Akkaya, Y. et al., op.cit.

Notes: The chart depicts the expected effect on the term premium of various assets with a ten-year maturity resulting from an expected €1 trillion decrease in the ECB’s bond holdings. Results are based on individual SMA responses from December 2022 until December 2023.

Second, an environment marked by declining levels of central bank liquidity may constrain banks’ ability to extend credit.

Research documents the strong relationship between loan supply and structural sources of liquidity, such as reserves obtained through credit easing programmes or those injected through quantitative easing interventions.

More specifically, a €1 change in non-borrowed reserves or credit easing reserves is associated with a corresponding change in credit of approximately 15 cents or 10 cents respectively.^[20] In other words, a €500 billion drop in non-borrowed reserves – similar to the one expected in 2025 as a result of the decline in our APP and PEPP holdings – is associated with a €75 billion decline in credit supply, equivalent to about 0.6 percentage points of downward pressure on loans to the non-financial private sector.^[21]

Accordingly, as central bank liquidity declines, we may see tighter credit conditions in the economy. This could slow down investment and consumption, with firms cutting back on capital expenditure and consumers reducing purchases of big-ticket items that require financing.^[22]

Incoming data suggest that euro area GDP growth will remain subdued in the short term. Industrial production decreased notably in December and surveys indicate that manufacturing is continuing to contract, whereas services activity is expanding at a moderate pace (Chart 10).

Chart 10

Purchasing Managers’ Index

(diffusion indices)

Source: S&P Global.

Notes: “Output” and “New orders” correspond to the manufacturing and composite indices, and “Business activity” and “New business” to the services index. The latest observations are for January 2025.

Given the uncertain economic environment, we are yet to see a sustained rebound in investment (Chart 11).^[23] And while we continue to expect consumption to be the main driver of the recovery, rising real incomes have not yet encouraged households to increase their spending in a commensurate manner (Chart 12).^[24] In the face of subdued domestic demand, our latest staff projections forecast a slower economic recovery than had been forecast in the September projections.^[25]

Chart 11

Detailed decomposition of euro area real GDP

(quarter-on-quarter percentage changes and percentage point contributions)

Sources: Eurostat and ECB staff calculations.

Note: The latest observations are for the fourth quarter of 2024 for real GDP, and for the third quarter of 2024 for the other components.

Chart 12

Real household disposable income and consumption

(second quarter of 2022 = 100)

Sources: Eurostat and ECB staff calculations.

Note: The latest observations are for the third quarter of 2024.

Moreover, geopolitical risks may create further headwinds for the recovery, which we will need to monitor carefully. Forthcoming findings from the ECB’s Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) suggest that consumers’ concerns about geopolitical risks are negatively affecting economic sentiment – leading to more pessimistic expectations, more elevated income uncertainty and, ultimately, a lower propensity to consume.

We are determined to ensure that inflation stabilises sustainably at our 2% medium-term target. As we gradually cut rates towards neutral territory, we need to be mindful of the fact that we now have two monetary policy tools working in opposing directions, given our ongoing quantitative tightening. This is a first in our history at the ECB.

We therefore need to ensure that we factor in the tightening of our balance sheet when calibrating our rate cuts to achieve our inflation aim. This is because the stance effects stemming from our rate cuts will be somewhat dampened by the tightening induced by the normalisation of our balance sheet.

This is an important consideration when discussing the appropriate policy rate path.

Risks to the transmission of our monetary policy

Similarly, we need to be mindful of the possible risks to the transmission of our monetary policy to the real economy in view of the prevailing uncertainty and potential risks to financial stability.

This cautious approach is crucial, especially given historical precedents where central banks faced unexpected challenges.

In late 2019, for instance, the Federal Reserve System was unexpectedly forced to temporarily reverse its balance sheet retrenchment due to liquidity challenges in financial markets.^[26] In 2022 the Bank of England halted quantitative tightening and launched emergency gilt purchases to safeguard financial stability after pension funds’ liability-driven investment strategies exposed systemic risks.^[27]

Recent bouts of market volatility also underscore that we should remain alert to the emergence of financial stability risks that may endanger transmission. Last August several factors converged to spark substantial market volatility.^[28] The VIX, a market index that measures the implied volatility of the S&P 500 index, recorded its largest ever one-day spike (Chart 13).^[29]

Chart 13

VIX index

(percentages)

Source: ECB staff calculations.

Notes: Long run average calculated since January 2000. The latest observations are for 7 February 2025.

Faced with such episodes of volatility, the further decline in our balance sheet must remain on a gradual and predictable path to avoid financial amplification effects.^[30] This is especially important in an environment where euro area banks are already tightening their credit standards, especially for firms and consumer credit, due to higher perceived risks related to the economic outlook (Chart 14).^[31]

Chart 14

Credit standards, demand for loans to firms and contributing factors

(net percentages)

Source: ECB (bank lending survey).

Notes: “Actual” values are changes that have occurred, while “expected” values are changes anticipated by banks. Net percentages for the questions on credit standards for loans are defined as the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding “tightened considerably” and “tightened somewhat” and the sum of the percentages of banks responding “eased somewhat” and “eased considerably”. Net percentages for the questions on demand for loans are defined as the difference between the sum of the percentages of banks responding “increased considerably” and “increased somewhat” and the sum of the percentages of banks responding “decreased somewhat” and “decreased considerably”. “Other financing needs” as unweighted average of “M&A and corporate restructuring” and “debt refinancing/restructuring and renegotiation”; “Use of alternative finance” as unweighted average of “internal financing”, “loans from other banks”, “loans from non-banks”, “issuance/redemption of debt securities” and “issuance/redemption of equity”. The net percentages for “Other factors” refer to an average of the further factors which were mentioned by banks as having contributed to changes in credit standards or changes in loan demand, respectively. The latest observations are for the fourth quarter of 2024 (January 2025 bank lending survey).

Our balance sheet policy instruments continue to be a crucial item in our toolbox. The expectation that we will use them if necessary protects the smooth transmission of our monetary policy and reduces the likelihood that we will need to use these tools in the first place.

Moreover, in an environment of heightened uncertainty, even in the context of excess liquidity, we need to remain prudent and be ready to step in should another shock emerge. We should maintain the flexibility to swiftly expand liquidity facilities if stressful conditions arise.

Conclusion

Let me conclude.

The ECB’s experience with balance sheet policies to date demonstrates their importance both for the monetary policy stance and for the transmission of our monetary policy to the real economy. They are a vital part of our toolkit.

While policy rates remain our primary instrument for adjusting the monetary policy stance, we should also consider the role played by quantitative tightening in influencing overall financial and financing conditions – be it through the yield curve or through the bank lending channel.

To strike the right balance, we should ensure that our rate decisions adequately compensate for the tightening induced by the reduction of our balance sheet.

Thank you.

MIL OSI Europe News –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Europe: Answer to a written question – 29 years of failure to protect Cypriot loan borrowers from foreclosures of family homes – P-002870/2024(ASW)
Source: European Parliament
Directive 93/13/EEC[1] requires Member States to ensure that consumers are not bound by unfair terms and have effective remedies against such terms.

I t applies to all kinds of contracts on the purchase of goods and services[2] and to contracts concluded in Cyprus since its accession to the EU on 1 May 2004[3].

It is the primary responsibility of national authorities and courts to safeguard consumer rights in individual disputes such as related to mortgage enforcement[4].

The Commission opened in 2013 an infringement procedure[5] against Cyprus for ineffective enforcement of Directive 93/13/EEC and Directive 2005/29/EC[6].

While Cyprus responded positively to several concerns, certain unresolved grievances, including concerning the role of the Law Office of the Republic, were addressed in an additional letter of formal notice on 25 July 2019[7] and a reasoned opinion on 18 February 2021[8].

The Commission is finalising its assessment of the case, taking into account inter alia the reply of 16 April 2021 to the reasoned opinion, subsequent changes to Cypriot consumer law last notified to the Commission in November 2022[9], and further analysis undertaken as part of the preparation of the report on the implementation of the Modernisation Directive, published by the Commission on 18 June 2024[10].

[1] Council Directive 93/13/EEC of 5 April 1993 on unfair terms in consumer contracts, OJ L 95, 21.4.1993, p. 29-34.

[2] See Section 5 of Commission Notice — Guidance on the interpretation and application of Council Directive 93/13/EEC of 5 April 1993 on unfair terms in consumer contracts, OJ C 323, 27.9.2019, p. 4-92, COM(2019) 5325 final.

[3] See Judgment of the Court of Justice of the European Union of 5 May 2022 in Case C-567/20 A.H. v Zagrebačka banka d.d.

[4] See for example CJEU judgment of 30 September 2003, Case C-224/01, Köbler.

[5] https://ec.europa.eu/atwork/applying-eu-law/infringements-proceedings/infringement_decisions/index.cfm?lang_code=EN&typeOfSearch=false&active_only=0&noncom=0&r_dossier=INFR%282013%292082&decision_date_from=&decision_date_to=&title=&submit=Search

[6] Directive 2005/29/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 May 2005 concerning unfair business-to-consumer commercial practices in the internal market and amending Council Directive 84/450/EEC, Directives 97/7/EC, 98/27/EC and 2002/65/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council and Regulation (EC) No 2006/2004 of the European Parliament and of the Council (‘Unfair Commercial Practices Directive’), OJ L 149, 11.6.2005, p. 22-39.

[7] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/INF_19_4251

[8] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/inf_21_441

[9] See in particular the Cypriot Consumer Protection Laws of 2021 to (No 2) 2022.

[10] Report from the Commission to the European Parliament and the Council on the implementation of Directive (EU) 2019/2161 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 amending Council Directive 93/13/EEC and Directives 98/6/EC, 2005/29/EC and 2011/83/EU of the European Parliament and of the Council as regards the better enforcement and modernisation of Union consumer protection rules, (https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=COM%3A2024%3A258%3AFIN).
Last updated: 18 February 2025
MIL OSI Europe News –
February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI USA: IT Infrastructure Manufacturer to Invest $11 Million in New Bern Expansion

Source: US State of North Carolina

Headline: IT Infrastructure Manufacturer to Invest $11 Million in New Bern Expansion

IT Infrastructure Manufacturer to Invest $11 Million in New Bern Expansion
lsaito
Tue, 02/18/2025 – 14:11

Raleigh, NC

Today, Governor Josh Stein announced Chatsworth Products, Inc. (CPI), a manufacturer of IT equipment, will add 45 new jobs in Craven County. The company will invest $11 million to expand its facility in New Bern.

“Our state’s ability to support manufacturing operations in all corners of the state will continue to grow our economy and ensure the benefits of that growth are more broadly shared across North Carolina,” said Governor Josh Stein. “Chatsworth Products is reinvesting in Craven County because North Carolina is a great home for business and our workforce is the best.”

CPI, a global manufacturer of infrastructure hardware and equipment for the information and communication technology industries, has been delivering innovative solutions for more than three decades. As a 100% employee-owned company, CPI specializes in engineering thermal, power and cable management solutions for the data center, in addition to enterprise networking and industrial enclosures. The New Bern location will increase its production capacity and introduce new product lines in this expansion.

“Chatsworth Products has been delivering innovative Data Center infrastructure solutions for over 34 years to our global customer base fueled by our employee-ownership culture,” said Ted Behrens, CEO, Chatsworth Products. “This expansion in New Bern underscores our dedication to meeting customer needs while strengthening our role as a trusted partner in the IT and telecommunications industries. We are proud to deepen our roots in Craven County and contribute to the region’s economic growth with new opportunities and advanced manufacturing capabilities.”

“Chatsworth’s decision to expand is the result of what works well in North Carolina,” said N.C. Commerce Secretary Lee Lilley. “In addition to a skilled workforce and talent development system, the intersection of manufacturing excellence and innovative leadership keeps us high on the list as a fast-growing tech hub that companies need to thrive.”

New positions include machine operators, packers, and warehouse staff. While wages vary by position, annual wages for new positions will average $50,224, which exceeds the Craven County average of $48,770. These new jobs could potentially create an annual payroll impact of more than $2.2 million for the region.

A performance-based grant of $100,000 from the One North Carolina Fund awarded to Chatsworth Products will help facilitate the company’s expansion. The OneNC Fund provides financial assistance to local governments to help attract economic investment and to create jobs. Companies receive no money upfront and must meet job creation and capital investment targets to qualify for payment. All OneNC grants require a matching participation from local governments and any award is contingent upon that condition being met.

“These new jobs are a welcome addition to our region,” said N.C. Senator Bob Brinson. “Chatsworth’s commitment in Craven County is a testament to our state’s strong economy and well-educated workforce. I look forward to working with them for years to come.”

“We know Chatsworth could have expanded anywhere, but we’re glad they chose New Bern,” said N.C. Representative Steve Tyson. “We’re grateful for the diligent professionals as well as the state, regional and local officials that helped the company with its decision.”

In addition to the North Carolina Department of Commerce and the Economic Development Partnership of North Carolina, other key partners in this project include the North Carolina General Assembly, North Carolina Community College System, Craven Community College, NC East Alliance, North Carolina’s Southeast, Craven County, Craven 100 Alliance, and Duke Energy.

Feb 18, 2025

MIL OSI USA News –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI NGOs: MSF responds as M23 fighters enter Bukavu, one of the largest cities in eastern DR Congo News Feb 18, 2025

Source: Doctors Without Borders –

In the north of South Kivu province, MSF continues to provide support to various departments in Minova General Referral Hospital, three other health centers in Minova health zone, and Numbi health center. These are areas where there are still thousands of displaced people.

Marcus Bachmann, MSF head of programs for South Kivu province, breaks down the current situation on the ground.

A family fleeing violence waits to take a boat at the port of Bukavu, South Kivu province. | DR Congo 2025 © Amani Alimasi/MSF

What’s happening in South Kivu right now?

While the hotspot of the conflict has been North Kivu, neighboring South Kivu province has also long been receiving displaced people and has been touched by the violence. In the first three weeks of 2025, with the intensification of the conflict, MSF-supported health structures in northern South Kivu received more than 315 injured patients.

In late January, M23 took control of Numbi in the highlands of northern South Kivu, and of Minova, by the shores of Lake Kivu. Following the takeover of Goma, North Kivu’s capital, the group continued making quick advances in South Kivu. Last week, they captured the strategic towns of Kalehe and Kavumu.

The city has been quite empty, with hardly any traffic, and very few people walking in the streets, as many residents opted to stay at home and others left town. The situation is still volatile.
Marcus Bachmann, MSF head of programs for South Kivu province

Over the weekend, M23 fighters progressively entered Bukavu, South Kivu’s capital and one of the most populated cities in eastern DRC, as FARDC troops and allied forces reportedly withdrew from the town. Major armed clashes haven’t taken place in Bukavu, but there has been widespread looting and shootings amid the chaos. The city has been quite empty, with hardly any traffic, and very few people walking in the streets, as many residents opted to stay at home and others left town. The situation is still volatile.

An MSF team installs a medical consultation tent in Cibitoke province, Burundi, where people fleeing fighting in DRC have been arriving since mid-February 2025. | Burundi 2025 © MSF

How is MSF responding?

We were not running regular medical activities in Bukavu, but we have offices to coordinate activities in the province. However, we have now started to support four hospitals in the city to deal with big influxes of injured and to reinforce capacity for treating victims and survivors of sexual violence.

By Monday, February 17, our supported hospitals in Bukavu had already received 48 injured patients with wounds from gunshots and shrapnel, as a result of the violence that has taken place over the last few days. In one of the hospitals, they received 42 of these patients; all the injured were civilians, including 11 people under 18 years of age, and 16 of them were women.

In the north of South Kivu province, MSF continues to provide support to various departments of Minova General Referral Hospital, three other health centers in Minova health zone, and Numbi health center. These are areas where there are still thousands of displaced people.

What to know about the intensified conflict in DR Congo

View the timeline

In Uvira, further south in South Kivu province, where our teams have been providing care for patients with mpox in recent months, the situation has also become quite concerning. Fighting has been reported on the road from Bukavu to Uvira, and the general hospital there is receiving dozens of injured people, including civilians.

We are closely assessing the situation and exploring ways to scale up our emergency efforts to respond to the humanitarian needs of people in areas around Minova, Bukavu, and Uvira.

As thousands of people have been crossing the border from South Kivu into Burundi to seek refuge in the province of Cibitoke, MSF has immediately dispatched a team to assess the urgent needs and provide emergency assistance in cooperation with the Burundian authorities. MSF’s priority is to support access to primary health care through mobile clinics, improve sanitation and access to water, and fight epidemics such as measles and cholera.

Congolese people fleeing violence are sheltering in Burundi’s Cibitoke province. | Burundi 2025 © MSF

MSF supporting Congolese in Burundi

Thousands of people fleeing the fighting in the DR Congo have crossed the border into Burundi in recent days. In cooperation with Burundian authorities, MSF has sent a team to the province of Cibitoke to assess needs and provide emergency assistance.

The priority for MSF teams in Burundi will be to help people access primary health care through mobile clinics, improve access to water and prevent the risk of epidemics such as measles and cholera.

What are the main concerns about the situation in South Kivu?

The spread of violence and armed clashes, as well as related logistic constraints such as the closure of airports and lake navigation routes, is affecting our ability to provide medical care in various parts of northern South Kivu province. We urge all the parties to the conflict to ensure the protection of civilians, humanitarian workers, and medical infrastructure and personnel in all areas affected by the conflict.

Due to the volatility of the situation, there is a risk of humanitarian needs exacerbating, particularly among communities that have been displaced for a long time.

We are also concerned about the potential surge in outbreaks of diseases, such as cholera. Our teams are prepared to respond if needed, including providing safe drinking water to communities.

We speak out. Get updates.

MIL OSI NGO –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Video: From Ground Zero – Global Event featuring Oscar-shortlisted Film | United Nations Movie Society

Source: United Nations (Video News)

On Friday, 21 February 2025, the UN Movie Society of the United Nations Staff Recreation Council – dedicated to advancing UN global causes through the transformative power of storytelling, will present an event featuring excerpts from the 2025 Oscar-shortlisted International Feature Film, FROM GROUND ZERO. The programme will be broadcasted live & on demand on the global channels of the United Nations – UN Web TV and UN YouTube.

FROM GROUND ZERO was filmed during the devastating war in Gaza, during which – according to the United Nations Relief and Work Agency (UNRWA) – over 48,000 Palestinians have been reportedly killed since October 7th, 2023 – the vast majority of them children, women and the elderly. And many more are feared missing under the rubble. Sadly, 273 UNRWA colleagues have also been killed since the war began.

In under two hours, the film weaves together 22 short films created by 22 courageous Palestinian filmmakers living and surviving in Gaza over this past year. While pulling from the rubble of their homes and their cities, these filmmakers have come together to share these stories with us – mixing dramatic storytelling, documentary, and animation. FROM GROUND ZERO is a moving and compelling story about resilience and the human spirit. The very existence of this film is remarkable, given the dangerous circumstances that existed on the ground at the time of filming. It is a portrayal of resilience and the human spirit that explores the importance of storytelling in a powerful way.

On this occasion, the event will be opened with remarks delivered by H.E. Mr. Riyad H. Mansour, Ambassador and Permanent Observer of the State of Palestine to the United Nations. In addition, remarks by Director Rashid Masharawi will be featured.

Movies hold the unique power to promote universal ideals, principles, and values so deeply enshrined by the United Nations – including peace, development, respect for human rights, cultural appreciation, the dignity of the human person, and equal rights for all. Founded at the United Nations Headquarters by Brenda Vongova, the UN Movie Society is committed to championing the goals and values of the United Nations through the universal language of motion pictures.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fEfCFAo9yY

MIL OSI Video –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Video: Debris Removal

Source: United States of America – Federal Government Departments (video statements)

Crews are out in LA County clearing debris and ash from properties that were burned by the recent wildfires. The Environmental Protection Agency continues to clear hazardous household materials from impacted properties, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is coming right behind them to remove concrete, metal, trees, and ash from the properties. This service is free, but you must submit a Right of Entry form to participate. You can do that online at recovery.lacounty.gov or by calling 844-347-3332. The deadline to opt in is March 31, 2025.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gy5l92RhjxA

MIL OSI Video –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Video: Contact FEMA for Home or Personal Property Loss During the Recent Southern California Wildfires

Source: United States of America – Federal Government Departments (video statements)

If your home or property was damaged from the recent wildfires in Los Angeles County, FEMA may be able to help you repair or replace the items. Call 800-621-3362 or visit DisasterAssistance.gov to apply for assistance. The deadline is March 10, 2025—apply today!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxe-OmuGdEM

MIL OSI Video –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Caithness Community Halls receiving ‘unseen’ help
Source: Scotland – Highland Council

Issued on behalf of the Highland Community Justice Partnership

Community owned Halls across Highland are receiving much needed help from perhaps one of the most stigmatised groups in society, namely those with a criminal record. Staxigoe Hall near Wick is a great example, where the Community Payback team has helped with the refurbishment of the Hall three times now.

Staxigoe Hall, a great and cherished venue is beautifully situated by the harbour, which was the first and largest herring salting station in Europe. The hall has now been painted and decorated three times by the Community Payback team.

Gabrielle Buist from Highland Community Justice Partnership says: “A sentence in the community can change the path of a person’s life, as well as contributing to and improving their community. It is often community leaders (such as Pat Ramsay) who appreciate that we all have to pull together, to invest time and skills in people in order to make our communities safer in the long term. Useful work gets done all around Highland communities which mostly goes unseen and unacknowledged. This is part of my role as HCJP Development Officer to raise awareness about what ‘community justice’ is and why it’s important. As the saying goes ‘it takes a village to raise a child’, well our responsibility towards one another should not end there. Community Justice is all about partnership and collaboration, recognising that keeping people safe and reducing reoffending is a joint responsibility.”

Steve MacDonald, Highland Council’s – Community Payback Officer added: “Clients who are sent to us from Wick Sheriff Court have a legal obligation to pay back to the community that they have offended against. It’s important to give them structure, meaningful tasks and hopefully learn new skills while being mentored and encouraged by the Supervisors. The value of the Community Payback Order to both the client and to the community cannot be understated as they are a proven method of minimising the likelihood of a client re-offending.”

Photo of Steve MacDonald, Highland Council’s – Community Payback Officer

Where needed community-based sentences include treatment for underlying issues such as drug or alcohol addiction, offence-focused programmes, unpaid work, fines and compensation or restrictions of liberty such as electronic tagging and curfews. It’s not a ‘soft option’ and neither is it ‘just litter picking’. The evidence shows community justice can help people to stop breaking the law, to step away from the vicious cycle of reoffending. Sentences served in the community are more effective than those served in prison. It keeps people in their communities where they are connected to all the important relationships and support networks needed for a productive life, resulting in less crime being committed.

An un-named Client said: “I’ve been working on this project as part of my unpaid work for a couple of weeks now. It’s good to learn new things about painting and decorating which Bob shows us and knowing that we are doing some good in the community makes it all worthwhile. Since starting this job, I can even say that I actually look forward to my unpaid work day and have even come out doing extra days.”

Pat Ramsay is Chairperson of Staxigoe Hall Board along with her husband, Grant who is a Trustee.

Photo of Pat and Grant Ramsay Staxigoe Hall Board

Pat said: “I am delighted with the ongoing support from the Justice Service over many years. Our most recent project being the refurbishing of Staxigoe Village Hall has been fantastic! The Hall has had a complete new heating system installed plus internal and external insulation along with LED lighting throughout. The Justice Team has cleared the place of rubbish and then completed a programme of painting … the main hall being the largest aspect. It’s a complete transformation with a new contemporary colour scheme. The team have been so flexible in their timescale allowing us to run a few events before our official reopening soon. We’ve appreciated the regular communication and weekly updates which have been vital. The team are also working on the picnic benches at the Harbour, ready for the sunny days. They will also continue with their summer programme of grass cutting at the Harbour plus the Hall. They are an invaluable resource in our area and their work is appreciated by our community.”

Image of Works at Staxigoe Hall

Bob Miller, Community Payback Supervisor said: “Undertaking such sizeable projects as Staxigoe Hall is very satisfying knowing that if we weren’t here to help, it just wouldn’t get done. I’m a time served painter and decorator to trade, and I take pride in showing the clients how to effectively prepare and complete the task to a high standard. It gives me a great deal of satisfaction to know that clients are taking away valuable skills which they can use elsewhere to hopefully make their lives better in the long term.”

Gabrielle Buist from Highland Community Justice Partnership says: “The chances of someone reoffending are reduced significantly when they can maintain their contact with family, their accommodation and their work. Community justice is about finding ways for offenders to serve a sentence from home, while getting support to rehabilitate and the opportunity to give back to the community. There is of course a place for prisons but like James Timpson (UK Gov Prisons Minister) says only one third of offenders need to be behind bars. This does call for a degree of tolerance from our communities, along with the willingness to actively offer meaningful jobs, as well as individual placements especially in remote parts of Highland.”

The Highland Community Justice Partnership pays tribute to all those groups who are working with community payback teams and offering projects and placements; including charity shops, churches, community hubs, gardens & cafes, trusts, councils and groups all around Highland.

If you have some jobs that need done or would consider taking on a placement then do get in touch for an initial chat.

To find out about your local scheme, contact: criminaljustice@highland.gov.uk

Phone:
- Caithness & Sutherland 01955 603161
- Ross-shire 01349 884118
- Inverness 01463 242511
- Lochaber 01397 704668
- Skye & Lochalsh 01478 612943
You can stay up to date with Community Payback projects around Highland on Facebook: facebook.com/CommunityJusticeHighland
MIL OSI United Kingdom –
February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Adult Support and Protection Day 2025

Source: Scotland – Highland Council

Issued by NHS Highland on behalf of the Highland Adult Protection Committee.

Residents across Highland are being asked to be alert to vulnerable adults in their communities who are susceptible to financial harm.

Adult Support and Protection Day takes place on Thursday 20 February 2025 and NHS Highland is urging everyone to report any concerns to ensure those in need are able to access support.

Financial harm can cover theft, fraud and pressure to sign over property or money. It also relates to rogue traders, online scammers and misuse of benefits.

People can be at increased risk to be harmed financially through factors such as ill health, trauma and physical or mental health conditions.

It can happen anywhere – in someone’s home, where they work, or in a public place – and is often caused by the people closest to them. It can even happen in places responsible for keeping someone safe, such as a care home, hospital or day centre.

The Highland Adult Committee is hosting an Adult Protection Day on Thursday, 20th February 2025 in Culloden-Balloch Baptist Church, Wellside Road, Balloch.

The event will focus on combating financial harm and protecting vulnerable adults in our communities. Tickets for the event are free, and you can book your space by visiting https://www.ticketsource.co.uk/highlandadultprotection . The event will run from 10am-3pm.

Mark McGinty, Chair of the Adult Support and Protection Community Awareness Group for the Highland area said: “Financial harm has an impact upon us all, whether its being caught out by a scammer, a mistrust by a family member or friend, or an organisation or public body helping prevent financial harm or helping a victim recover.

“This event provides an opportunity for professionals and the wider public alike, to learn more about what financial harm is, how to spot it, who to speak to and how to prevent it from happening. I’d urge professionals and those associated with adult care, as well as the general public, to come along if possible, it could save you or someone you know from the stress and heartache of losing money to financial harm.”

Councillor David Fraser, Highland Council Chair of Housing and Social Work Committee said: “Highland Council welcomes this event being organised by the Adult Support and Protection Committee which ultimately aims to protect vulnerable adults in our communities who are susceptible to financial harm. If anyone has concerns about a vulnerable adult in their community who they suspect is being financially harmed they should contact either Advice Direct Scotland on 0808 164 600, who partner Trading Standards in tackling consumer scams, or Police Scotland on 101 where the financial harm is more family, friend, guardian related.”

It’s important to speak up about any concerns you have, as the person may not be able to do so themselves.

Please see NHS Highland website for more details on raising a concern Adult support and protection | NHS Highland

MIL OSI United Kingdom –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Savills appointed to assess commercial options for iconic Highland capital property
Source: Scotland – Highland Council

Photo by Paul Campbell. Meeting in the main hall at Inverness Town House (left to right): David Haas, Highland Council Senior Community Development Manager; Depute Provost of Inverness and Area Cllr Morven Reid; Caroline Webster, Savills Director – Building Surveyor; Adam Davies, Savills Associate Director; Leader of Inverness and Area Cllr Ian Brown; Depute Provost of Inverness and Area Cllr Jackie Hendry; and Chair of the Inverness Common Good Sub Committee Cllr Alex Graham.

The Highland Council on behalf of the Inverness Common Good Fund is pleased to announce an award of contract to Savills (UK) Ltd for the development of a feasibility study on the use of Inverness Town House.

Leader of Inverness and Area, Cllr Ian Brown said: “As Trustees of the Inverness Common Good, Members of the City of Inverness Area Committee have agreed to appoint Savills (UK) Ltd. I am delighted to announce that work is commencing on a feasibility study – the outcomes of which will help identify a long-term future for the Town House in the context of all the new developments that are taking place within the city.

Provost of Inverness, Cllr Glynis Campbell Sinclair added: “I am delighted that the Council has appointed such an experienced and prestigious company as Savills to appraise sustainable commercial options for the future of this much-loved historical building.

“Since Highland Council relocated staff to its headquarters in 2023, work has been progressing well on the development of this Grade A Listed Common Good Fund asset to ensure that it continues to play a productive role into the future while remaining a fully functioning base for civic events. The study enhances our ability to deliver further on the progress to date and develop new ideas”

Chair of the Inverness Common Good Sub Committee Cllr Alex Graham said: “As guardians of the Inverness Common Good Fund, we have an important responsibility to ensure that we maximise the return on Common Good Fund assets for the benefit of the people of Inverness. A key aim of the feasibility study is to identify ways in which to increase the Town House business potential as much as possible while retaining the historical character and civic functions of the property.”

Savills, Associate Director. Adam Davies said: “Savills is delighted to be instructed by Highland Council to conduct a feasibility study for Inverness Town House. This is an iconic building, with an important historical legacy, situated in the heart of a fast-growing city. Ensuring its continued civic accessibility, whilst also exploring complimentary uses, will be key to finding a vibrant and sustainable solution.

“With extensive experience of working with heritage assets in leisure and commercial markets, our study will explore a range of future uses. We look forward to presenting our findings to the Council for their consideration.”

The feasibility study will focus on identifying options for the use of the building and engagement with stakeholders, on the potential uses of the building. The study also requires an understanding of the commercial market environment and identification of the requirements that would be required to deliver and operate the commercial options identified. An outline business case that considers the risks and challenges to provide a robust and sustainable outcome will conclude the feasibility study.

The core principles underpinning the feasibility study are that:
- the Town House retains a core function as a civic building in the heart of the city.
- consideration is given to the position of the Town House and how it could align with the Castle Project and wider city developments.
- any changes, or renovations required to the interior of the property are to support future uses and must be respectful of the building’s history and status.
- a sustainable model is created for the operation of the Town House with the potential to make the property cost neutral or profitable.
Further information on the Town House can be found at www.theinvernesstownhouse.co.uk.

The study will be reported to the City of Inverness Area Committee later in the Spring.
MIL OSI United Kingdom –
February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Security: Convicted Robber Sentenced to Additional Prison Term After Firing Machine Gun at Law Enforcement Officer

Source: United States Bureau of Alcohol Tobacco Firearms and Explosives (ATF)

ATLANTA – Montrez Ballard has been sentenced to ten years in prison after firing a machine gun at a Georgia State Patrol officer.

“Ballard’s brazen actions endangered the life of a law enforcement officer,” said Acting U.S. Attorney Richard Moultrie, Jr. “This lengthy prison sentence reflects Ballard’s dangerous, and potentially lethal, attack on a Georgia State Patrol trooper whose very mission is to help keep our community safe.”

“The swift and coordinated response of law enforcement ensured that a dangerous individual was taken off the streets before he could inflict further harm. ATF will not stand by while criminals use illegally modified weapons to terrorize our communities. We will continue to be relentless in our pursuit of those who believe they can act without consequence,” said Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives Assistant Special Agent in Charge Alicia D. Jones.

According to Acting U.S. Attorney Moultrie, the charges, and other information presented in court: On July 21, 2023, Ballard, driving a Nissan Maxima, abruptly cut off a Georgia State Patrol (GSP) trooper in Atlanta. Ballard fled from the trooper after the officer activated his emergency equipment to stop Ballard. In his attempt to evade the trooper, Ballard drove more than 20 miles per hour above the speed limit in a residential neighborhood, ran stop signs, and nearly struck another motorist.

Minutes into the chase, Ballard’s vehicle crashed into a stop sign. Ballard then exited his vehicle and fled on foot. When the trooper chased him, Ballard confronted the officer and fired at least three shots at the trooper. The trooper returned fire but Ballard escaped.

Other law enforcement agencies, including the Atlanta Police Department and Fulton County Sheriff’s Office, responded to help locate Ballard. Officers eventually arrested Ballard – who was on probation for a state robbery offense at the time – and recovered his firearm. Ballard’s gun, a Glock 19 9mm handgun, was examined and determined to be equipped with a device that converted the weapon into a machine gun, allowing the gun to fire continuously without multiple trigger pulls.

Montrez Ballard, 21, of Hampton, Ga., was sentenced by U.S. District Judge J.P. Boulee to ten years in prison, followed by three years of supervised release.

This case was investigated by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives and the Georgia Bureau of Investigation, with valuable assistance from the Atlanta Police Department and Fulton County Sheriff’s Office.

Assistant United States Attorney Dwayne A. Brown, Jr. prosecuted the case.

This case is part of Project Safe Neighborhoods (PSN), a program bringing together all levels of law enforcement and the communities they serve to reduce violent crime and gun violence, and to make our neighborhoods safer for everyone. On May 26, 2021, the Department launched a violent crime reduction strategy strengthening PSN based on these core principles: fostering trust and legitimacy in our communities, supporting community-based organizations that help prevent violence from occurring in the first place, setting focused and strategic enforcement priorities, and measuring the results.

For further information please contact the U.S. Attorney’s Public Affairs Office at USAGAN.PressEmails@usdoj.gov or (404) 581-6280. The Internet address for the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Georgia is http://www.justice.gov/usao-ndga.

MIL Security OSI –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Economics: Security pros: Join us for Microsoft RSAC 2025 beginning April 27
Source: Microsoft

Headline: Security pros: Join us for Microsoft RSAC 2025 beginning April 27

AI adoption is picking up speed. Many companies are growing their technology estates by embracing powerful new solutions like generative AI. But to maximize the benefits of new technology with confidence, security professionals need to stay compliant with the evolving regulatory and audit requirements in the age of AI. It is in this spirit that Microsoft invites you to join us at RSAC^TM 2025 Conference in San Francisco, where we will showcase end-to-end security designed to help organizations accelerate the secure adoption of AI with ready-to-go security and governance tools and solutions to multiply security teams’ productivity.

Across the Microsoft Security portfolio, our innovations, together with world-class threat and regulatory intelligence, will help give security experts the advantage they need in the era of AI. From our signature Pre-Day to hands-on demos and one-on-one meetings, join the Microsoft experience at RSAC 2025 designed just for you.

Microsoft at RSAC

From our signature Pre-Day to hands-on demos and one-on-one meetings, discover how Microsoft Security can give you the advantage you need in the era of AI.

Kick things off at Microsoft Pre-Day

The Microsoft experience at RSAC 2025 begins with Microsoft Pre-Day on Sunday, April 27, 2025, at the Palace Hotel, just around the corner from the Moscone Center. For the fourth year running, the keynote speech held on Microsoft Pre-Day will kick off the full lineup of Microsoft events and activities throughout RSAC 2025. By joining us on Sunday, you’ll have the chance to hear directly from Microsoft Security business leaders—including Vasu Jakkal, Corporate Vice President, Microsoft Security Business; Charlie Bell, Executive Vice President, Microsoft Security; Sherrod DeGrippo, Director of Threat Intelligence Strategy; and other Microsoft Security leaders as they share reporting on emerging cyberthreat trends and the product innovations designed to protect against them. Vasu will also take the RSAC 2025 stage on Day 1 for the conference keynote.

At Pre-Day, attendees will hear Microsoft Security threat intelligence on emerging trends, explore new AI-first tools, demos, and best practices, and attain a better understanding of how Microsoft can help them secure and govern their AI deployments. Attend to discover how the adaptive, end-to-end security platform from Microsoft, including Microsoft Security Copilot, can help your team catch what others miss, speed up remediation, lower your total cost of ownership, and boost—rather than burden—you and your teams.

Stick around after Pre-Day for the reception—an evening of fun, networking, and entertainment, celebrating the vibrant security community. This is a unique opportunity to meet Microsoft security leaders, expand your professional network, and learn how others are addressing the latest security trends and challenges. Light refreshments will be served. CISOs who register to attend Microsoft Pre-Day will automatically be invited to a chief information security officer (CISO) dinner with Vasu Jakkal.

Make sure to register for Microsoft Pre-Day to join in on all the day’s activities.

Register for Microsoft Pre-Day at RSAC 2025

Dedicated calendar of events for CISOs

Microsoft will be hosting a number of events tailored to CISOs throughout RSAC 2025. To kick off the week, Microsoft will be hosting a Pre-Day, followed by the exclusive CISO dinner on April 27, 2025. Following, there will be daily lunch and learn opportunities that address some of the primary challenges facing CISOs organizations:
- Monday April 28, 2025: Innovating Securely CISO Lunch—Learn insights concerning secure innovation centered around the new AI regulations, including the EU Act, Digital Operational Resilience Act (DORA), and more.
- Tuesday April 29, 2025: SFI Executive Lunch—Open to all and focused around the needs of Latin America-based CISOs, this lunch will bring together leaders and experts interested in understanding the latest Secure Future Initiative (SFI) progress and exchanging their thoughts on related best practices.
- Wednesday April 30, 2025: Embracing Cyber resilience CISO Lunch—Attendees are invited to network, learn, and exchange their insights regarding cyber resilience as the AI landscape evolves.
Finally, CISOs who attend RSAC 2025 are invited to stay through the end of the conference to attend the Microsoft Post-Day Forum at the Microsoft Experience Center at Silicon Valley on Thursday, May 1, 2025, from 9:00 AM PT to 1:00 PM PT. The day will be full of insightful presentations, interactive discussions, networking opportunities, and a curated CISO roundtable session. This informative day will also include an immersive tour of the unique state-of-the-art Microsoft Experience Center, which highlights larger-than-life solutions that show Microsoft’s cutting-edge technology solving many of today’s challenges. This experience is facilitated by envisioning specialists who spark inspired conversations, creative ideas, and new opportunities for leaders to participate in before returning home.

Sign up for Microsoft experiences at RSAC, including the Pre-Day, the CISO dinner, CISO lunch, and the Post-Day Forum. Request a one-on-one meeting with Microsoft experts to discuss your most pressing questions here.

Discover solutions to your challenges during the keynote speech and Microsoft sessions

As part of the RSAC agenda, Vasu Jakkal will take the stage on Monday, April 28, 2025, at 4:40 PM PT. During the speech, she will discuss the potential of agentic workflows to dramatically reshape the security landscape. Agentic AI has the power to enable more complex problem-solving, deeper agent collaboration, and iterative learning. All of this leads us toward a previously unheard-of new paradigm for security. Join Vasu Jakkal for an imaginative look at the future of AI security agents and how the people of our security teams will work alongside them to change the game.

After the keynote and throughout the conference, attendees will be able to split their time between the Microsoft Security sessions included in the RSAC 2025 agenda, live demonstrations at booth #5744 in Moscone North, and a variety of roundtables, one-on-one meetings, and presentations at the Microsoft Security Hub at the Palace Hotel.

Here are two sessions not to miss:
- Tuesday, April 29, 2025, at 9:40 AM PT: Shaping the Future of Security with Agentic AI—In a time of rapidly evolving cyberthreats, agentic AI is emerging as a transformative force in security. Join Dorothy Li, Corporate Vice President of Microsoft Security Copilot and Marketplace, to discover how autonomous decision-making is reshaping our approach to cybersecurity. This session will reveal how agentic AI empowers organizations to proactively mitigate risks, enhance operational efficiency, and elevate the effectiveness of your security tools. Attendees will gain actionable insights and practical strategies for harnessing the potential of agentic AI. Prepare to rethink the future of security and position your organization at the forefront of innovation.
- Wednesday, April 30, 2025, at 9:40 AM PT: Accelerate AI Adoption with Stronger Security—AI adoption is accelerating, creating both new opportunities and security challenges. Led by Neta Haiby, Partner Product Manager at Microsoft, this session covers key AI adoption trends, emerging risks, and common cyberthreats. Discover actionable steps to secure and govern AI, from establishing a dedicated security team for AI to adopting AI-specific solutions, ensuring your organization can innovate with confidence.
Other well-known Microsoft experts will host session sharing what they’ve learned from their work pioneering and securing AI:
- Wednesday, April 30, 2025 at 8:30 AM PT: Guardians of the Cyber Galaxy: Allies Against AI-Powered Cybercrime by Sean Farrell, Assistant General Counsel, Digital Crimes Unit.
- Monday, April 28, 2025 at 1:10 PM PT: AI Era Authentication: Securing the Future with Inclusive Identity by Abhilasha Bhargav-Spantzel, Partner Security Architect, and Aditi Shah, Senior Data and Applied Scientist.
- Tuesday, April 29, 2025, at 8:30 AM PT: AI Safety: Where Do We Go From Here? by Ram Shankar Siva Kumar, Principal Research Lead, AI Red Team Lead.
- Tuesday, April 29, 2025, at 2:25 PM PT: Lessons Learned from a Year(ish) of Countering Malicious Actors’ Use of AI by Sherrod DeGrippo, Director, Threat intelligence strategy.
View live demonstrations and discover engaging ways to learn at booth #5744

At the Microsoft booth, attendees will have the chance to engage with experts, discover ready-to-go security and governance tools built for generative AI, and watch theater sessions showcasing the latest products, innovations, and industry perspectives from Microsoft. They’ll also get to enjoy a fun and interactive gaming experience.

Microsoft product and partner experts will be on hand to showcase the newest advancements through captivating demonstrations, informative videos, and valuable resources.

Visit the Microsoft booth theater for exclusive 20-minute demos and expert-led sessions on the latest in security and AI. Explore strategies to protect, govern, and secure AI. Listen in to insights on identity, compliance, privacy, threat defense, data protection, and more. Don’t miss this opportunity to learn from industry leaders and stay ahead in the ever-evolving security landscape.

Meetings and connections at the Microsoft Security Hub

The historic and luxurious Palace Hotel is home base for Microsoft during the week. RSAC 2025 attendees are invited to meet with Microsoft experts and executives, attend thought leadership sessions and roundtable lunches, and join networking opportunities. Detailed information about individual sessions can be found on the Microsoft Security Experiences at RSAC 2025 Landing Page.

Customers are also invited to deepen their understanding of the latest cybersecurity threats, trends, and developments by discussing their most important security product and threat intelligence questions directly with Microsoft security experts through scheduled one-on-one meetings, held from Monday, April 28, 2025, to Wednesday, April 30, 2025, at the Palace Hotel. Request your meeting directly through the Microsoft Security Experiences at RSAC 2025 Home Page.

Microsoft Intelligent Security Association featured partners

The Microsoft Intelligent Security Association (MISA) will once again have a considerable presence at RSAC 2025. MISA partners will be featured in the Microsoft Booth #5744 and included in other events happening throughout the week. Additionally, the sixth annual Microsoft Security Excellence Awards, presented by MISA, will be held at the Palace Hotel in San Francisco on April 28, 2025, celebrating our finalists and announcing winners in nine award categories as well as enjoying a time of connecting.

Activities include:
- MISA demo station: Stop by the Microsoft Booth to explore the innovative solutions developed by MISA members, which integrate Microsoft Security technology.
- Theater sessions: Attend one or more of our five theater sessions at the Microsoft booth, led by MISA members, focusing on partner strategies and solutions for cyberthreat protection.
- View the MISA demo and theater schedule.
- MISA Partner awards: MISA members are invited to attend the Microsoft Security Excellence Awards on Monday, April 28, 2025, where winners will be announced in nine security award categories.
Get the most by staying through Microsoft Post-Day

Microsoft Post-Day Forum is a unique experience designed to help customers, CISOs, and security leaders dive deep into new concepts, ask questions they need answered about product features, and prepare to realize and enable the AI-first, end-to-end security concepts they’ve learned about throughout RSAC 2025. The Microsoft Post-Day Forum, hosted by Microsoft Security executives, will be held on Thursday, May 1, 2025, from 10:00 AM PT to 1:00 PM PT, at the Silicon Valley Experience Center. Pick up for the event will be held at the Palace Hotel at 8:00 AM PT, with drop off organized for 2:00 PM PT.

We look forward to seeing you at RSAC 2025!

Learn more about the Microsoft experience at RSAC 2025

Customers and partners can register for the events highlighted in this blog as well as other Microsoft ancillary events and more here.

Explore Microsoft Security events at RSAC 2025

To learn more about Microsoft Security solutions, visit our website. Bookmark the Security blog to keep up with our expert coverage on security matters. Also, follow us on LinkedIn (Microsoft Security) and X (@MSFTSecurity) for the latest news and updates on cybersecurity.
MIL OSI Economics –
February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Economics: Building resilient digital security in education with Windows 11
Source: Microsoft

Headline: Building resilient digital security in education with Windows 11

Learn ways to strengthen your institution’s digital security, drive greater productivity, and accelerate learning with Windows 11.

Around the world, the education sector is increasingly targeted by cyberthreats. In fact, education was the third-most targeted industry by cybercriminals in Q2 2024, and the second-most targeted sector by nation-state threat actors in 2024. These attacks often carry devastating consequences, from identity theft to severe breaches across education networks and systems. With the rise of digital learning and the proliferation of connected devices—alongside continually evolving threats—IT departments face a greater challenge to secure digital environments in education.

In the modern threat landscape, it’s important to consider whether your cybersecurity strategy is equipped to help you navigate these challenges. Deploying the most up-to-date devices, software, and operating systems can help close security vulnerabilities and build proactive protection. Windows 11 helps you strengthen your overall security posture, drive greater productivity, and build safer communities for learning, working, and teaching.

Secure learning experiences

Safeguard your students, educators, and institution from cyberthreats, now and in the future.

Unlock greater productivity while maintaining robust and comprehensive protection

Today, organizations around the world are rethinking their security approaches down to their hardware. Cybersecurity software alone is no longer enough to protect systems as bad actors leverage new technologies and tactics to bypass defenses and access critical resources.

Designed to address education’s most critical cyberthreats, Windows 11 is the most secure version of Windows to date, designed with security built into each level, including:
- Cloud
- Identity
- Application
- Operating system
- Hardware
The default security features of Windows 11 were created based on threat intelligence, global regulatory requirements, and Microsoft Security expertise. Through partnerships with original equipment manufacturers and silicon manufacturers, Windows 11 is designed for greater security starting at the chip level—enabling hardware and software to work together to shrink the organizational attack surface, protect system integrity, and secure institutional data.

Get the Windows 11 security whitepaper

To simplify deployment for IT teams, Windows 11 comes with key out-of-the-box features enabled, including:
- Credential safeguards
- Application protection
- Malware shields
It’s also designed to integrate with Microsoft Security Copilot, which leverages generative AI capabilities to provide greater insights and efficiency to help improve security at scale. Windows 11 Pro devices drive a 62% drop in reported security incidents and are shown to accelerate workflows by 50% on average, helping you and your organization achieve more with less time and effort. Let’s take a deeper look at how Windows 11 helps you tackle cybersecurity challenges across different environments.

Application safeguards help keep critical data safe

Windows 11 offers a complete platform for educational institutions to house and protect critical applications such as learning management systems (LMS), administrative software, and productivity tools. Attackers often target poorly secured applications, which is why Windows 11 provides you with built-in capabilities such as preemptive application and driver control to isolate breaches quickly. Robust application safeguards help you maintain governance of your sensitive data, including:
- Student records
- Financial information
- Access credentials
- Research data
Windows 11 is designed to support Zero Trust strategies, which play a key role in helping you strengthen application and operating system protection. This approach is centered around the principles of “verify explicitly, use least privilege access, and assume breach,” meaning that you and your team can verify each access request as though it originated from an uncontrolled network—instead of assuming that everything behind the firewall is safe.

To that end, Windows 11 enables you to more easily find and detect cyberthreats, respond to them, and prevent or block undesired events across your education institution. In the case of a presumed breach, you can combat common application attacks from the moment a device is provisioned. When it comes to network security, granting access within a trust-by-exception policy versus a trust-by-default policy helps better protect the digital security, privacy, and compliance needs of your educational community.

Deliver end-to-end protection with Windows 11 cloud-based device management

With the introduction of more tech solutions, many education institutions face new challenges in managing cybersecurity. Having more devices across school and home environments creates more access points for potential attackers. To get ahead of potential breaches, get started with proactive, end-to-end device management strategies that help protect privacy and security.

Windows 11 helps empower you and your IT team by offering comprehensive cloud services for identity, storage, and access management. Adhering to Zero Trust principles, enforcing compliance, and granting conditional access helps verify that Windows 11 devices connected to an organization’s networks are trustworthy and safe. With more than 90% of ransom-stage cyberattacks leveraging unmanaged devices in a network, interoperable cloud-based device management solutions enable you to secure the digital estate and quickly respond to threats.

Managing and enabling secure use of devices at scale can also be a challenge for IT departments at education institutions. To give you and your team greater visibility and control over their digital estate, Windows 11 offers an integrated management suite. This suite supports comprehensive endpoint management solutions such as Microsoft Intune that help secure, deploy, and manage users, apps, and devices.¹ Intune can further integrate with Microsoft Entra ID to manage security features and processes, including multifactor authentication.

Additionally, Windows Hello enables you to deploy passwordless authentication for a safer and simpler sign-in experience. Thanks to the addition of passkeys, students can enjoy even greater security and convenience by using their face, fingerprint, or PIN to sign in to websites and apps. Enhanced threat detection on Microsoft Defender for Endpoint helps shield devices against phishing and malware and empowers IT teams to thwart attacks before they cause harm.¹ By adding Security Copilot, IT staff can leverage natural language queries to get holistic insights on the security and safety of their organization, which can help drive better decision-making and strategic planning.

Start preparing now for future security protections

In planning your security approach, your institution has an opportunity to adopt modern, secure, and highly efficient computing solutions that help your organization tackle the cybersecurity challenges of today and tomorrow. Windows 11 offers powerful, hardware-backed protection that provides a foundation for implementing new technology solutions as they’re developed, such as AI that helps accelerate workflows and supercharge efficiency of operations.

Explore Windows 11

Now is the time to identify devices in your organization that are due for upgrades and start improving your institution’s security and your IT team’s efficiency today. Get started with these resources:

¹ Sold separately from Windows 11
MIL OSI Economics –
February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Economics: Highly anticipated fantasy role-playing game Avowed now available
Source: Microsoft

Headline: Highly anticipated fantasy role-playing game Avowed now available
Summary

Shape your destiny as an Envoy chosen by a mysterious god, wielding divine powers to confront ancient threats, unravel hidden mysteries, and decide the fate of the Living Lands.

Forge your own playstyle with four expansive skill trees—Fighter, Ranger, Wizard, and Godlike—and fight using powerful weapons, magic, and unique abilities like Grimoire Snap and Blood Magic.

Your companions are more than just allies—their unique abilities, personal struggles, and choices shape not only your journey but the world of Eora itself.
The wait is finally over—Avowed, Obsidian Entertainment’s highly anticipated fantasy RPG has officially launched! Step into the breathtaking Living Lands, a wild and mysterious island located in the Pillars of Eternity world of Eora, and embark on a journey filled with danger, discovery, and adventure.

[embedded content]

Play today on Xbox Series X|S, the Xbox app for Windows PC, Battle.net, Steam, and cloud, to experience Obsidian’s latest RPG adventure. Available day one on Game Pass!

A Land in Turmoil

The Living Lands is a frontier unlike any other. This rugged and untamed island has become a haven for exiles, dreamers, and adventurers seeking a fresh start. Its vibrant regions and scattered settlements pulse with life, each hiding untold stories and ancient secrets waiting to be uncovered.

But this land of promise is fraught with peril. The Dreamscourge, a devastating soul-plague, is driving settlers to madness and turning them against one another. The very land itself resists colonization, haunted by echoes of lives long past. As an envoy chosen by a foreign emperor and blessed by a mysterious god, you are thrust into the heart of this chaos. With divine powers at your fingertips and the will to shape your own destiny, you’ll confront ancient threats, unravel mysteries, and decide the fate of the Living Lands. Will you unite its people or watch as their struggles tear them apart? The choices you make will define the future of the Living Lands—and the person you become.

Forge Your Own Path

In Avowed, the power of choice is yours. Create a character and shape your playstyle with four expansive skill trees—Fighter, Ranger, Wizard, and Godlike. Using two separate weapon loadouts, you can play as a stealthy sniper armed with dual pistols and a longbow or a spell-slinging barbarian wielding an axe and a grimoire, or whatever combination of loadouts you choose. This means that the possibilities are endless. Your choices define who you are and how you’ll tackle the challenges ahead.

But you’re not alone on this journey. Your companions each bring their own skills, personalities, and deeply personal stories:
- Kai, the steadfast protector, whose calm demeanor and unwavering loyalty make him a dependable shield in battle.
- Giatta, a brilliant animancer scientist, whose relentless curiosity drives her to uncover the mysteries of the Dreamscourge, even at great personal risk.
- Marius, a lone-wolf hunter, whose sharp wit and tracking expertise make him an invaluable ally in the wilderness.
- Yatzli, a fiery Godless expert, harnessing explosive magic and a rebellious spirit. Her disdain for the gods adds complexity to her character and your choices.
Their history, relationships, and perspectives intertwine with your story, adding depth and weight to every decision you make. Will you earn their trust, challenge their beliefs, or forge something more profound? How you guide your companions—and how they influence you—shapes the adventure in unexpected ways.

Your Living Lands, Your Way

Avowed is a game built to immerse you in its world. The Living Lands is a sprawling playground for adventurers, rewarding exploration at every turn. Traverse rugged cliffs, wade through winding rivers, and uncover unique hidden treasures—from ancient elemental weapons to fragments of God Shrine Totems that come together to create powerful new abilities.

Combat is equally immersive, offering a seamless blend of magic, melee, and ranged attacks. Unleash shockwaves with Grimoire Snap, trade health for devastating power with Blood Magic, wield weapons you have upgraded and enchanted, or mix and match abilities to create a playstyle that’s entirely your own. Every encounter is an opportunity to experiment, strategize, and push the boundaries of your party’s potential.

At the heart of Avowed lies its dedication to player choice. Inspired by the freedom of tabletop RPGs, the game puts the power in your hands. Your decisions ripple across the Living Lands, shaping alliances, influencing factions, and determining the fate of your companions. Whether you negotiate peace, spark conflict, or carve your own path through the chaos, your actions leave a lasting impact on the world of Eora.

This seamless blend of storytelling, exploration, and creativity makes Avowed an unforgettable RPG experience, one where every choice matters and every discovery feels personal.

Start Your Adventure Today

Whether you’re a longtime fan of Obsidian Entertainment or new to Eora, Avowed invites you to dive into a world of wonder, danger, and opportunity. With its vibrant setting, unforgettable characters, and deeply immersive gameplay, this is the role-playing experience you’ve been waiting for.

The Living Lands are calling. Gather your courage, forge your path, and let the adventure begin!

Avowed is available now for Xbox Series X|S, the Xbox app for Windows PC, Battle.net, Steam, cloud, and with Game Pass. Avowed also supports Xbox Play Anywhere, meaning when you buy the game through the store on Xbox or Windows, it’s yours to play on Xbox and Windows PC at no additional cost, and your game progress and achievements are saved across Xbox and Windows PC.

When you purchase Avowed on Battle.net or Xbox, or have an Xbox Game Pass membership (PC or Ultimate only), and connect your Battle.net and Xbox accounts, it’s also yours to play on Battle.net, Xbox and Xbox App for Windows at no additional cost. Avowed lets you pick up where you left off, bringing all of your saves, game add-ons, and Xbox achievement progress with you.

Avowed Premium Edition

Xbox Game Studios

☆☆☆☆☆ 651

★★★★★

$89.99

Premium Edition includes: – Avowed base game – Up to 5 days early access – Two Premium Skin Packs – Access to Avowed Digital Artbook & Original Soundtrack Welcome to the Living Lands, a mysterious island filled with adventure and danger. Set in the fictional world of Eora that was first introduced to players in the Pillars of Eternity franchise, Avowed is a first-person fantasy action RPG from the award-winning team at Obsidian Entertainment. You are the envoy of Aedyr, a distant land, sent to investigate rumors of a spreading plague throughout the Living Lands – an island full of mysteries and secrets, danger and adventure, and choices and consequences, and untamed wilderness. You discover a personal connection to the Living Lands and an ancient secret that threatens to destroy everything. Can you save this unknown frontier and your soul from the forces threatening to tear them asunder? The Weird and Wonderful Living Lands The Living Lands is a place that feels foreign yet somewhat intrinsic to you as it feels the island itself is calling out to you for help. Explore an island home to many different environments and landscapes, each with their own unique ecosystem. Visceral Combat to Play Your Way Mix and match swords, spells, guns, and shields to fight your way. Dig into your grimoire for spells to trap, freeze or burn enemies, bash them with your shield, or use range bows to attack from a distance. Companions as part of your journey Companions from a spread of species will fight alongside you, with their own unique set of abilities. From a former mercenary to an eccentric wizard, they will be part of your journey with your choices shaping them as you help them with their quests.

Avowed Standard Edition

Xbox Game Studios

☆☆☆☆☆ 560

★★★★★

$69.99

Welcome to the Living Lands, a mysterious island filled with adventure and danger. Set in the fictional world of Eora that was first introduced to players in the Pillars of Eternity franchise, Avowed is a first-person fantasy action RPG from the award-winning team at Obsidian Entertainment. You are the envoy of Aedyr, a distant land, sent to investigate rumors of a spreading plague throughout the Living Lands – an island full of mysteries and secrets, danger and adventure, and choices and consequences, and untamed wilderness. You discover a personal connection to the Living Lands and an ancient secret that threatens to destroy everything. Can you save this unknown frontier and your soul from the forces threatening to tear them asunder? The Weird and Wonderful Living Lands The Living Lands is a place that feels foreign yet somewhat intrinsic to you as it feels the island itself is calling out to you for help. Explore an island home to many different environments and landscapes, each with their own unique ecosystem. Visceral Combat to Play Your Way Mix and match swords, spells, guns, and shields to fight your way. Dig into your grimoire for spells to trap, freeze or burn enemies, bash them with your shield, or use range bows to attack from a distance. Companions as part of your journey Companions from a spread of species will fight alongside you, with their own unique set of abilities. From a former mercenary to an eccentric wizard, they will be part of your journey with your choices shaping them as you help them with their quests.
MIL OSI Economics –
February 19, 2025
MIL-Evening Report: Economic ‘green shoots’ and lower interest rates disguise worrying trends in NZ’s job market

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cristóbal Castro Barrientos, PhD candidate, NZ Policy Research Institute, Auckland University of Technology

Max Dallocco/Shutterstock

Despite Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s reassurance that “some green shoots” are starting to show in the economy, including a 50 point cut in the official cash rate expected to be announced later today, the outlook for 2025 remains uncertain for many – and grim for some.

Unemployment reached 5.1% in the final quarter of 2024, the highest level since 2020, according to the latest data from Stats NZ. That translates to a total of 156,000 unemployed individuals.

At the same time, a 1% decrease in gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2024 puts more pressure on the job market.

While the unemployment rate may not have reached the levels of past crises – the rate exceeded 6% during the 2008-2009 recession – the devil is in the detail.

The Stats NZ data show the most affected sectors include male-dominated occupations such as technicians and machinery operators, accounting for 85% of the latest job losses.

Women have seen smaller declines in employment and a slight increase in transitions to part-time roles. But the shift from full-time to part-time employment, especially among men, suggests the creation of quality full-time jobs will be a challenge.

Job losses concentrated in male-dominated industries also have broader economic implications. They may signal shifts in household income dynamics, particularly for families that depend on a male breadwinner.

It could also contribute to rising male underemployment (when a worker’s job doesn’t fully utilise their skills, education or experience) and further disparities in the employment rates of men and women.

Overall, these trends raise questions about the nature and quality of work now available in the job market, and what strategies the government can respond with.

A rise in ‘discouraged’ workers

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the annualised employment rate (representing the proportion of the working-age population employed over a year, adjusted for seasonal fluctuations) was 67.4%, compared with 69% in the same period of the previous year.

This is the most significant decline since 2009. It reflects job losses and a “discouraged worker” effect.

Discouraged workers are those who have stopped seeking employment due to a perceived lack of opportunities. Instead of remaining in the labour force, they may rely on savings, family support, welfare, or transition into informal or temporary work.

According to recent data, the most affected sectors include male-dominated occupations such as technicians and machinery operators.
Kajohnwit Boonsom/Shutterstock

A drop in quality work

The rise in part-time employment, particularly among men, raises concerns about the quality of the labour market. Although employment levels appear stable, the growth of less secure jobs may conceal structural weaknesses.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the number in part-time employment reached 585,000, the highest figure since 1986. Over the past year, 36,000 men left full-time jobs, while 9,000 transitioned to part-time work.

One of the main risks of this trend is that companies may be cutting costs without resorting to mass layoffs, which implies reduced job security for workers. Many of these transitions to part-time employment are not voluntary but rather a sign that the economy is not generating enough stable job opportunities.

Additionally, part-time jobs often offer lower wages, fewer benefits and fewer opportunities for career advancement.

This type of employment can contribute to stagnation in skill development and reduce workers’ purchasing power, ultimately affecting consumer spending and overall economic growth.

There is also a perception of discrimination against part-time workers, with one in three reporting feeling discriminated against in their jobs.

A year of two halves

While consumer confidence has been low, recent revisions to economic growth estimates suggest the economy hasn’t been as weak as perceived.

Current projections are that unemployment may reach a peak between 5.3% and 5.6% in mid-2025 and then trend downwards.

With inflation now within the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s target range, changes in the official cash rate are needed to contain the damage to a weakened labour market. The central bank is forecast to cut the interest rate by 50-points today.

The weak growth in the working-age population and a potential decline in labour force participation could limit how high unemployment rises, as fewer people may be actively looking for work. But this does not mean a strong recovery is imminent.

New Zealand faces a significant but not insurmountable challenge. An unemployment rate of 5.1% should raise a red flag and is devastating for the increasing number of workers who have lost their jobs. But the data also show the increase is part of an anticipated economic cycle.

What matters is how the government reacts to the increases in unemployment and changes to the job market. A supportive job-creation policy and a coordinated strategy for the most affected sectors will be key in avoiding long-lasting pain in the labour market.

Cristóbal Castro Barrientos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Economic ‘green shoots’ and lower interest rates disguise worrying trends in NZ’s job market – https://theconversation.com/economic-green-shoots-and-lower-interest-rates-disguise-worrying-trends-in-nzs-job-market-249685

MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

February 19, 2025
MIL-Evening Report: Here’s why increasing productivity in housing construction is such a tricky problem to solve
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Martin Loosemore, Professor of Construction Management, University of Technology Sydney

This week, the Productivity Commission released its much-awaited report into productivity growth in Australia’s housing construction sector. It wasn’t a glowing appraisal.

The commission found physical productivity – the total number of houses built per hour worked – has more than halved over the past 30 years.

The more nuanced measure of labour productivity – which accounts for improvements in size and quality – has also fallen, by 12%.

Both measures put home-building productivity well behind the broader economy, something the report’s authors attribute to “decades of poor performance”.

We’ve known about this problem for a long time. The Productivity Commission’s report is well researched and makes some sensible recommendations.

Solving the underlying problem will require a coordinated approach between government, home-owners, construction companies and workers.

Measuring productivity

Housing can take many forms. However, from a productivity perspective, the process of development is essentially the same.

In very simple terms it involves:
- concept and initial design, feasibility, finance and business case development
- land acquisition and due diligence
- detailed design, development and building approvals
- pre-construction planning and working drawings
- construction project management
- practical completion, final certificates and settlement, commissioning and handover.
There are no official estimates of housing construction productivity. So, the Productivity Commission used Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data to create its own new measures to capture productivity across this entire process.

Falling or flat-lining productivity in this sector is a well-known long-term problem. Under the National Housing Accord, the federal government has committed to building 1.2 million new well-located homes by the end of this decade.

But in the first three months since the National Housing Accord was launched, only 44,884 homes were built across Australia. That’s about 15,000 fewer than the required quarterly target of 60,000.

The National Housing Supply and Affordability Council projects that new market housing supply will ultimately come in at about a quarter of a million homes below the accord’s target.

4 key problems

The report identified four key factors behind the malaise:
1. complex, slow approvals, as well as delayed construction certificates and essential infrastructure connections
2. lack of innovation and slow uptake of digital technologies and modern methods of construction
3. the dominance of smaller building firms resulting in low economies-of-scale and project management challenges associated with supply chain fragmentation
4. difficulties attracting and retaining skilled workers resulting in skills and labour shortages.
The report proposes seven reform directions in response. These centre on speeding up the planning approval process, investing in research and development, and increasing workforce flexibility.

Fixing things won’t be simple

The Productivity Commission’s report has brought a welcome focus on planning and approvals as a key element of easing the housing crisis.

It acknowledges that under-resourcing of agencies involved in the approvals process, such as local governments, has made the problem worse.

One issue with increasing the number of planning approvals processed is that you then need to have a construction industry that can build fast enough to keep up with them.

Currently, we don’t. Industry research shows since 2013, the number of workers within Australia’s construction workforce has increased by more than 25%. But they are working 2% fewer hours each year, and achieving an output that’s 25.4% lower.

Keeping an eye on quality

Amid any push to speed up approvals, we need to be mindful of the possible risks. Loosening building regulations can increase the risk of quality problems and inappropriate development.

If widespread across the industry, such problems can cause significant personal and economic harm to households, social and economic costs for society. They can also increase building costs, insurance premiums and strata fees.

This problem calls for a range of tools to reduce the risk of compromising on quality when regulations are loosened or changed. New South Wales has two key pieces of legislation in place that could act as a model for other states.

One allows owners to sue if a person who carries out construction work fails to exercise reasonable care. The other allows the Building Commission to investigate building work and require rectification of defects for up to six years.

NSW also has an independent builder trustworthiness rating scheme. This is known as iCirt and operated by credit rating agency Equifax.

Innovation isn’t a panacea

A major feature of the Productivity Commission’s report discusses the housing construction industry’s low innovation culture.

However, much innovation is hidden from view, since it occurs at the manufacturing stage. And innovation itself is not a panacea.

While calling for greater innovation seems obvious on the surface, research has shown its ability to increase productivity depends on a wide range of factors and is certainly not guaranteed. It can even increase costs and reduce quality and productivity if not managed effectively.

More holistic workforce planning

The report also highlights issues with attracting and retaining a skilled workforce. Issues include low apprenticeship take-up and completion rates, restrictive trade pathways, and large infrastructure projects drawing talent away.

This raises a bigger issue. Despite workforce planning across the industry by the Construction Industry Training Board the industry still seems to be constantly reacting to a skilled labour shortage rather than planning ahead to predict and prevent one.

Read more:
Will new $10,000 apprentice payments help solve job shortages in construction? Not anytime soon

Martin Loosemore does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Here’s why increasing productivity in housing construction is such a tricky problem to solve – https://theconversation.com/heres-why-increasing-productivity-in-housing-construction-is-such-a-tricky-problem-to-solve-250048
MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –
February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI United Kingdom: The United Kingdom remains deeply committed to the United Nations: UK statement at the UN Security Council

Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council meeting on practising multilateralism, reforming and improving global governance.

The United Kingdom remains deeply committed to the United Nations.

But 80 years since its creation, with more countries engaged in conflict than ever before, we are falling short of its founding mission to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.

And despite progress on health and education, significant global challenges remain.

The climate crisis is accelerating and the Sustainable Development Goals are off-track.

Why so? There is more to this than the often-mentioned liquidity crisis.

In 80 years, UN membership has increased from 51 to 193 Member States, but the UN and its institutions are not fully representative of all its members.

We now live in a multipolar world, not a bipolar or unipolar one, whose challenges, climate, pandemics and cyber security are more transnational than national.

As the Secretary-General reminded us and so many speakers today have reiterated, the Pact of the Future demonstrated a clear desire and a clear commitment to reinvigorate the multilateral system, including through reforming the UN and the international financial system.

Together, we need to redouble our efforts and find new ways to address emerging challenges.

2025, the UN’s 80th anniversary and a year of key summits, is the first step on this path.

Next month we have the Commission on the Status of Women and the Beijing +30 meeting; in June we have the UN Oceans Conference; in July FFD4. And later in the year the UN Social Summit and COP30, back in Brazil.

Together, these summits seek to address our shared concerns.

Their success is critical for progress and the UN’s reputation as our multilateral home.

Second, we need to use the UN more effectively to deliver international peace and security.

Such progress must go hand in hand with upholding human rights.

This starts first and foremost with the defence of the UN Charter as colleagues have references.

Nowhere is that more true today than in Ukraine, whose sovereignty and territorial integrity is under threat from Russian aggression.

We must work to ensure that all UN tools, including its good offices, are used to deliver and advance peace.

For example, Personal Envoy Lamamra has a crucial platform to bring together the warring parties in Sudan.

We encourage reinvigorated momentum for mediation efforts, as well as a renewed focus on prevention to reduce crises before they happen.

This year’s Peacebuilding Architecture Review is an important opportunity in this regard.

We also need to refresh our peacekeeping approach to ensure missions are fit for purpose and defend UN peacekeepers wherever they serve.

Attacks against them are unacceptable.

We honour, in particular today, MONUSCO peacekeepers who have fallen in defence of civilians in the DRC.

Finally, in the face of growing global crises, from Sudan to Myanmar, we need to support the UN’s development and humanitarian programmes, across its agencies.

In Gaza, UNRWA, alongside the WFP and UNICEF, provides over 50% of all food aid.

We commend OCHA’s tireless efforts to reach those in need.

Humanitarian access and the protection of aid workers are integral to their successful delivery.

In conclusion, President, colleagues, the Council is often characterised as an ineffective geopolitical theatre.

While reform of its membership is needed and the UK supports that, this body has the tools to implement its peace and security mandate.

We now need to strengthen our collective will to use them more effectively and, as the Secretary-General has said, in our 80th year, work to build the more peaceful, just and prosperous world that we know is within reach.

Updates to this page

Published 18 February 2025

MIL OSI United Kingdom –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Security: Ohio Man Sentenced to 35 Years in Prison for Sexual Exploitation of Children

Source: Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) State Crime News

CLEVELAND – Conner Matthew Walker, 21, of Rocky River, Ohio, was sentenced to 35 years in prison by U.S. District Judge Bridget Meehan Brennan, after pleading guilty to three counts of sexual exploitation of children, one count of receipt and distribution of child sexual abuse materials (CSAM), and one count of possession of child pornography. He was also ordered to serve 20 years of supervised release after imprisonment.

Walker admitted to harming his victims and recording the sexual abuse on his cellphone from September 2023 through January 2024. He connected with an 11-year-old victim through a children’s app and coerced her to send him sexually explicit photos. Two additional victims were identified as toddlers at a home daycare in Parma Heights, Ohio, where Walker resided occasionally. He further exploited his young victims when he uploaded and shared the content he produced to social media chat forums. Investigators searched Walker’s cellphone and discovered he possessed more than 1,000 additional CSAM images and videos.

The case was investigated by the FBI Cleveland Division and prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorney Jennifer J. King for the Northern District of Ohio.

To report child sexual abuse, please visit cybertipline.org, or call 1-800-843-5678, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

MIL Security OSI –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI USA: February 18th, 2025 Heinrich, Luján Raise Alarm Over Trump Admin Pushing Illegal Funding Cuts to NIH & Derailing Lifesaving Research

US Senate News:

Source: United States Senator for New Mexico Martin Heinrich

New Mexico receives $125 million in NIH funding that supports over 1,400 jobs and generates nearly $290 million in economic activity

Heinrich and Luján: “The administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly”

WASHINGTON – U.S. Senators Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Ben Ray Luján (D-NM), alongside 45 Senate Democrats, sent a letter to U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. expressing serious concern over the Trump administration’s recent decisions that threaten to create a serious funding shortfall for research institutions in New Mexico, undermine progress on lifesaving scientific advancements, jeopardize the U.S. economy, and endanger the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of workers.

“As the largest public funder of biomedical research in the world, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) plays a critical role in sustaining the research infrastructure necessary for scientific breakthroughs in cancer treatment, infectious disease prevention, and medical technology innovation, among many others. President Trump has wreaked havoc on the nation’s biomedical research system in recent weeks. In his first several days in office, President Trump imposed a hiring freeze, communications freeze, ban on travel, and cancellation of grant review and advisory panels that are necessary to advance research. While some of these efforts have been reversed, they continue to cause confusion and miscommunication among researchers and recipients of NIH funds,” the senators wrote.

This month, the NIH announced it would set the maximum reimbursement rate for indirect costs to 15% — creating a serious funding shortfall for research institutions of all types across the country. This move would dismantle the biomedical research system, stifle the development of new cures for diseases, and affect ongoing research important to New Mexicans such as clinical trial research at the University of New Mexico.

Importantly, this change is not a cost savings. It a cost transfer to organizations that cannot afford to pay the difference. This action by the Trump administration is unlawful — Congress’ bipartisan Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations Bill prohibits modifications to NIH’s indirect costs.

“This change to NIH’s indirect cost rate represents an indiscriminate funding cut that will be nothing short of catastrophic for the lifesaving research that patients and families are counting on. The administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly,” the senators wrote.

The senators point out that, in addition to the stifling impact on discovering new cures and ripping away treatment from those who need it, changes to NIH policy and communications threaten jobs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. NIH research supported more than 1,400 jobs and spurred nearly $290 million in new economic activity in New Mexico during Fiscal Year 2023.

“The Trump Administration has left researchers, universities, and health systems with great uncertainty about whether they can continue to support entire research programs and patient clinical trials across the country. Institutions and grantees nationwide are dealing with an unprecedented external communications ‘pause’ enacted by new leadership at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the lack of transparency regarding the Administration’s illegal funding freeze, and the uncertainty of how new Executive Orders would be applied to their critical work. These actions resulted in NIH freezing grant reviews and cancelling advisory meetings, delaying critical funding that scientists need to continue advancing new cures and treatments. These disruptions do not just slow research — they cost lives,” the senators continued.

“Our standing as a world leader in funding and producing new medical and scientific innovations has been put at risk by these recent actions from the Trump Administration. We urge you to stop playing political games with the lifesaving work of the NIH and to allow NIH research to continue uninterrupted,” the senators concluded.

Last week, a federal judge in Boston temporarily blocked the NIH rate cut and set a hearing for February 21^st.

The letter was led by U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-Wash.). Alongside Heinrich and Luján, the letter was signed by U.S. Senators Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Angus King (I-Maine), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.).

The text of the letter is here and below:

Dear Secretary Kennedy,

We write to express our serious concern with the Trump Administration’s recent decisions that threaten to undermine the nation’s biomedical research infrastructure and set us back generations. The steps the Trump Administration has taken will create a serious funding shortfall for research institutions nationwide, threaten to undermine progress on lifesaving scientific advancements, could cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars, and threaten the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of workers.

As the largest public funder of biomedical research in the world, NIH plays a critical role in sustaining the research infrastructure necessary for scientific breakthroughs in cancer treatment, infectious disease prevention, and medical technology innovation, among many others. President Trump has wreaked havoc on the nation’s biomedical research system in recent weeks. In his first several days in office, President Trump imposed a hiring freeze, communications freeze, ban on travel, and cancellation of grant review and advisory panels that are necessary to advance research. While some of these efforts have been reversed, they continue to cause confusion and miscommunication among researchers and recipients of NIH funds.

Just last week, NIH announced an illegal plan to cap indirect cost rates that research institutions rely on. In capping indirect cost rates at 15 percent for NIH-funded grants, this policy would cut funding essential for conducting research, such as operating and maintaining laboratories, equipment, and research facilities. This change to NIH’s indirect cost rate represents an indiscriminate funding cut that will be nothing short of catastrophic for the lifesaving research that patients and families are counting on. The Administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly.

These confusing and harmful policy changes threaten patient safety. The strength of the American research enterprise – recognized as the best in the world – is built on Congress’ bipartisan commitment to supporting essential research infrastructure. This funding, which Congress has long appropriated on a bipartisan basis, fuels groundbreaking medical discoveries and cements the United States’ position as the global leader in biomedical research.

In addition to the stifling impact on discovering new cures and ripping away treatment from those who need it, changes to NIH policy and communications threaten jobs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with everyone from custodians, to research trainees, to scientists facing potential layoffs. NIH research supported more than 412,000 jobs and fueled nearly $93 billion in new economic activity in Fiscal Year 2023. Every dollar the NIH invests in research generates almost $2.50 in economic activity. These reckless policy changes not only threaten biomedical innovation and research, but also the livelihoods of thousands of workers in every state across the nation.

The Trump Administration has left researchers, universities, and health systems with great uncertainty about whether they can continue to support entire research programs and patient clinical trials across the country. Institutions and grantees nationwide are dealing with an unprecedented external communications “pause” enacted by new leadership at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the lack of transparency regarding the Administration’s illegal funding freeze, and the uncertainty of how new Executive Orders would be applied to their critical work. These actions resulted in NIH freezing grant reviews and cancelling advisory meetings, delaying critical funding that scientists need to continue advancing new cures and treatments. These disruptions do not just slow research – they cost lives.

The NIH plays a critical role in our nation’s efforts to fund scientific advancements that improve health and save lives. Our standing as a world leader in funding and producing new medical and scientific innovations has been put at risk by these recent actions from the Trump Administration. We urge you to stop playing political games with the lifesaving work of the NIH and to allow NIH research to continue uninterrupted.

Sincerely,

MIL OSI USA News –

February 19, 2025
MIL-Evening Report: Loss of forests brought new birds to NZ during the last Ice Age – we’re witnessing a similar process now

Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Pascale Lubbe, Postdoctoral Research Fellow in Molecular Ecology, University of Otago

Royal spoonbills are among several new species that have crossed the Tasman and naturalised in New Zealand. JJ Harrison/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

When people arrived on the shores of Aotearoa New Zealand and began to turn the land to their needs, they set in motion great changes.

The landscape of today bears little resemblance to that of a mere thousand years ago. More than 70% of forest cover has been lost since human arrival. Native bush has been replaced by tussocks, scrublands and, most of all, open agricultural land.

These changes affected our birdlife dramatically. Some species, like the moa, were simply hunted to extinction. Others fell directly to mammalian predators. Many species were victims of severe habitat destruction. The loss of suitable habitat remains a key conservation challenge to this day.

However, a changing distribution of plants is not a uniquely modern feature. New Zealand has seen equally radical shifts in habitat before – during the Ice Age, which lasted 2.6 million years and ended about 12,000 years ago.

This reconstruction shows the extend of glaciers during the height of the last Ice Age some 20,000 years ago.
Shulmeister et al, 2019, CC BY-SA

At its height, parts of the country were up to 6°C colder than today, and glacial ice sheets spread wide fingers across the Southern Alps. The dry, cold climate resulted in widespread grass and scrubland. Forest cover became patchy everywhere except for the northern North Island.

Our new research tracks how bird life responded to these changes – in particular how exotic species took advantage of the shifting landscapes to make New Zealand home.

Ice Age invaders

Native birds responded to the Ice Age in a variety of ways. Kiwi populations became so isolated in forest patches they split into new lineages. Several moa species moved across the landscape, following their shifting habitat.

Some groups adapted, spreading into novel environments. Kea split off from their relatives the kākā, becoming more generalised. This is known as in situ adaptation; an existing group changing its habits or character to deal with new environments.

But where new ecological opportunities arise, species from elsewhere will also come to take advantage of them. Our research uncovers a pulse of colonisation by exotic bird species that coincides with the reduction of forest cover and the expansion of grasslands at the start of the Ice Age some 2.6 million years ago.

Many endemic New Zealand birds belong to young lineages that date back to landscape changes during the last Ice Age.
Wikimedia Commons, Te Papa by Paul Martinson, CC BY-SA

These species were primarily generalists, able to take advantage of a variety of habitats. But there was also an influx of birds pre-adapted to more open conditions, such as the ancestors of Haast’s eagle, pūtangitangi (paradise shelduck) and pīhoihoi (pipit).

Where did these “invaders” come from? Principally, from Australia. For millions of years, they have ridden the winds across the Tasman Sea and, occasionally, established breeding colonies on our shores.

Over a long enough time, those new populations evolved to become distinct, endemic New Zealand species found nowhere else on earth. Pīwakawaka (fantail), ruru (morepork), weweia (dabchick) and kakī (black stilt), to name a few, are all descended from Ice Age Australian ancestors.

They arrived in a New Zealand characterised by scrub, tussock and grass during cold glacial periods, followed by slowly expanding forests during warmer interglacials.

History repeats itself

Today, open vistas once again dominate the landscape. This time they were sculpted by humans rather than a cooling climate. The changing environment means new ecological opportunities – and vacancies – have been left by the great number of species that have gone extinct.

The open landscapes of today mirror the impacts of the Ice Age. Forest cover is reduced, grass and scrub cover the North and South islands.
Lubbe et al, 2025, CC BY-SA

Correspondingly, many new species have naturalised on our shores. Welcome swallows, royal spoonbills, Australian coots, spur winged plovers and white-faced herons started making their home here during the 1930s to 50s.

Silvereyes have been here longer, first reported during the 1850s, while glossy ibis and barn owl only started breeding here this century. All likely flew across the Tasman to settle here.

Some arrivals seem to serve as ecological replacements of a kind. The kāhu (swamp harrier) is a stand-in for the now-extinct Eyles’ harrier and Haast’s eagle. The poaka (pied stilt) is a common sight where kakī once dominated. And Australian coots proliferate where New Zealand coots once waded.

Native habitats for native birds

These birds are following ancient patterns and processes. Where new opportunities appear, new organisms will rise to fill them. Our highly modified ecosystems are responding in the only way open to them, with exotic species expanding their range to take advantage of empty ecological niches – job vacancies in the ecosystem.

Indeed, these invasions are likely to become more frequent as species distributions shift in a warming climate. As our native species decline under threats of habitat loss and predation by mammalian pests, they will be ecologically replaced by other species.

Left to their own devices, Aotearoa’s plants and animals will look different in the future. The unique species that have called these islands home for millions of years will increasingly be replaced by more generalist species from elsewhere.

The good news is that in predator-free native bush, endemic birds can outcompete introduced species.

The route to protecting our native species in a fast changing world remains as clear as ever – protect and restore native habitat and eradicate mammalian predators.

Pascale Lubbe currently receives funding from the Marsden Fund.

Michael Knapp has received funding from The Royal Society of New Zealand (Rutherford Discovery Fellowship).

Nic Rawlence receives funding from the Marsden Fund.

– ref. Loss of forests brought new birds to NZ during the last Ice Age – we’re witnessing a similar process now – https://theconversation.com/loss-of-forests-brought-new-birds-to-nz-during-the-last-ice-age-were-witnessing-a-similar-process-now-248523

MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI USA: Heinrich, Luján Raise Alarm Over Trump Admin Pushing Illegal Funding Cuts to NIH & Derailing Lifesaving Research

US Senate News:

Source: US Senator for New Mexico Ben Ray Luján

New Mexico receives $125 million in NIH funding that supports over 1,400 jobs and generates nearly $290 million in economic activity

Heinrich and Luján: “The administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly”

Washington, D.C. – U.S. Senators Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) and Ben Ray Luján (D-NM), alongside 45 Senate Democrats, sent a letter to U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. expressing serious concern over the Trump administration’s recent decisions that threaten to create a serious funding shortfall for research institutions in New Mexico, undermine progress on lifesaving scientific advancements, jeopardize the U.S. economy, and endanger the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of workers.

“As the largest public funder of biomedical research in the world, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) plays a critical role in sustaining the research infrastructure necessary for scientific breakthroughs in cancer treatment, infectious disease prevention, and medical technology innovation, among many others. President Trump has wreaked havoc on the nation’s biomedical research system in recent weeks. In his first several days in office, President Trump imposed a hiring freeze, communications freeze, ban on travel, and cancellation of grant review and advisory panels that are necessary to advance research. While some of these efforts have been reversed, they continue to cause confusion and miscommunication among researchers and recipients of NIH funds,” the senators wrote.

This month, the NIH announced it would set the maximum reimbursement rate for indirect costs to 15% — creating a serious funding shortfall for research institutions of all types across the country. This move would dismantle the biomedical research system, stifle the development of new cures for diseases, and affect ongoing research important to New Mexicans such as clinical trial research at the University of New Mexico.

Importantly, this change is not a cost savings. It a cost transfer to organizations that cannot afford to pay the difference. This action by the Trump administration is unlawful — Congress’ bipartisan Labor-HHS-Education Appropriations Bill prohibits modifications to NIH’s indirect costs.

“This change to NIH’s indirect cost rate represents an indiscriminate funding cut that will be nothing short of catastrophic for the lifesaving research that patients and families are counting on. The administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly,” the senators wrote.

The senators point out that, in addition to the stifling impact on discovering new cures and ripping away treatment from those who need it, changes to NIH policy and communications threaten jobs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. NIH research supported more than 1,400 jobs and spurred nearly $290 million in new economic activity in New Mexico during Fiscal Year 2023.

“The Trump Administration has left researchers, universities, and health systems with great uncertainty about whether they can continue to support entire research programs and patient clinical trials across the country. Institutions and grantees nationwide are dealing with an unprecedented external communications ‘pause’ enacted by new leadership at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the lack of transparency regarding the Administration’s illegal funding freeze, and the uncertainty of how new Executive Orders would be applied to their critical work. These actions resulted in NIH freezing grant reviews and cancelling advisory meetings, delaying critical funding that scientists need to continue advancing new cures and treatments. These disruptions do not just slow research — they cost lives,” the senators continued.

“Our standing as a world leader in funding and producing new medical and scientific innovations has been put at risk by these recent actions from the Trump Administration. We urge you to stop playing political games with the lifesaving work of the NIH and to allow NIH research to continue uninterrupted,” the senators concluded.

Last week, a federal judge in Boston temporarily blocked the NIH rate cut and set a hearing for February 21^st.

The letter was led by U.S. Senator Patty Murray (D-Wash.). Alongside Heinrich and Luján, the letter was signed by U.S. Senators Angela Alsobrooks (D-Md.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.), Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-Del.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.), Chris Coons (D-Del.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), John Fetterman (D-Pa.), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Angus King (I-Maine), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Peter Welch (D-Vt.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.).

The text of the letter is here and below:

Dear Secretary Kennedy,

We write to express our serious concern with the Trump Administration’s recent decisions that threaten to undermine the nation’s biomedical research infrastructure and set us back generations. The steps the Trump Administration has taken will create a serious funding shortfall for research institutions nationwide, threaten to undermine progress on lifesaving scientific advancements, could cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars, and threaten the livelihoods of hundreds of thousands of workers.

As the largest public funder of biomedical research in the world, NIH plays a critical role in sustaining the research infrastructure necessary for scientific breakthroughs in cancer treatment, infectious disease prevention, and medical technology innovation, among many others. President Trump has wreaked havoc on the nation’s biomedical research system in recent weeks. In his first several days in office, President Trump imposed a hiring freeze, communications freeze, ban on travel, and cancellation of grant review and advisory panels that are necessary to advance research. While some of these efforts have been reversed, they continue to cause confusion and miscommunication among researchers and recipients of NIH funds.

Just last week, NIH announced an illegal plan to cap indirect cost rates that research institutions rely on. In capping indirect cost rates at 15 percent for NIH-funded grants, this policy would cut funding essential for conducting research, such as operating and maintaining laboratories, equipment, and research facilities. This change to NIH’s indirect cost rate represents an indiscriminate funding cut that will be nothing short of catastrophic for the lifesaving research that patients and families are counting on. The Administration’s new policy means that research will come to a halt, sick kids may not get the treatment they need, and clinical trials may shut down abruptly.

These confusing and harmful policy changes threaten patient safety. The strength of the American research enterprise – recognized as the best in the world – is built on Congress’ bipartisan commitment to supporting essential research infrastructure. This funding, which Congress has long appropriated on a bipartisan basis, fuels groundbreaking medical discoveries and cements the United States’ position as the global leader in biomedical research.

In addition to the stifling impact on discovering new cures and ripping away treatment from those who need it, changes to NIH policy and communications threaten jobs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, with everyone from custodians, to research trainees, to scientists facing potential layoffs. NIH research supported more than 412,000 jobs and fueled nearly $93 billion in new economic activity in Fiscal Year 2023. Every dollar the NIH invests in research generates almost $2.50 in economic activity. These reckless policy changes not only threaten biomedical innovation and research, but also the livelihoods of thousands of workers in every state across the nation.

The Trump Administration has left researchers, universities, and health systems with great uncertainty about whether they can continue to support entire research programs and patient clinical trials across the country. Institutions and grantees nationwide are dealing with an unprecedented external communications “pause” enacted by new leadership at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the lack of transparency regarding the Administration’s illegal funding freeze, and the uncertainty of how new Executive Orders would be applied to their critical work. These actions resulted in NIH freezing grant reviews and cancelling advisory meetings, delaying critical funding that scientists need to continue advancing new cures and treatments. These disruptions do not just slow research – they cost lives.

The NIH plays a critical role in our nation’s efforts to fund scientific advancements that improve health and save lives. Our standing as a world leader in funding and producing new medical and scientific innovations has been put at risk by these recent actions from the Trump Administration. We urge you to stop playing political games with the lifesaving work of the NIH and to allow NIH research to continue uninterrupted.

Sincerely,

MIL OSI USA News –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI USA: Barr, Artificial Intelligence: Hypothetical Scenarios for the Future

Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have accelerated rapidly over the past few years.1 It is now commonplace to see autonomous vehicles navigating city streets, and generative AI tools are available on phones and other devices wherever we go. AI innovations make headlines and play a big role in financial markets, and generative AI has the potential to change how we think about productivity, labor markets and the macroeconomy.2 Today, I will address that question by outlining two hypothetical scenarios for AI’s impact and the implications for businesses, regulators, and society. I will focus my comments on Generative AI, or GenAI, a subset of AI that has seen significant growth and integration into economic activity in just a few short years.
GenAI and Its AdoptionCompared to earlier iterations of AI, GenAI is able to generate content, which allows it to significantly enhance productivity across a range of knowledge-based activities and be used by people without coding skills. GenAI will likely become a “general purpose technology,” with widespread adoption, continuous improvement, and productivity enhancements to a wide range of sectors across the economy. We are already seeing GenAI improve the productivity of its own R&D.3 There is widespread enthusiasm for GenAI, and survey evidence shows much faster rates of consumer adoption of GenAI already than were seen for the personal computer or the internet.4 While actual deployment of GenAI is limited to some business functions, and there have been pitfalls along the way, businesses in almost every sector are experimenting with or considering how to make use of the technology.5
Firms are also exploring Agentic AI—Gen AI systems that not only produce new content, but are also able to proactively pursue goals by generating innovative solutions and acting upon them at speed and scale.6 Imagining Agentic AI’s ultimate application, some speculate that we could experience a “country of geniuses in a data center”—a collective intelligence that surpasses human capabilities in problem-solving and collaboration.7 Some believe Agentic AI has the potential to connect ideas in disparate domains, potentially transforming research and development and society more broadly.8
Hypothetical Scenarios Considering How GenAI Could EvolveToday, I will outline two hypothetical scenarios for considering how GenAI could evolve.9 In one, we see only incremental adoption that primarily augments what humans do today, but still leads to widespread productivity gains. In the other, we see transformative change where we extend human capabilities with far-reaching consequences. For each scenario, I consider the potential implications for the economy and financial sector.
Thinking through hypothetical scenarios can help widen our lens to a range of possible outcomes and provide a framework for assessing the balance between benefits and risks. Scenarios are not predictions of the future, but provide a framework for analyzing the factors that could lead to different outcomes. Reality is complex. GenAI adoption rates will vary across industries, leading to diverse impacts on market structures. Elements of both scenarios will likely come to pass, and play out at different rates, which will influence the effects on the economy and society. In the short term, GenAI may be overhyped, while in the long run, it may be underappreciated. And, of course, things might turn out differently from these hypotheticals.
Hypothetical 1: Incremental Progress with Widespread Productivity GainsFirst, let me begin with the incremental scenario, where GenAI primarily augments work in existing processes and leads to steady and widespread productivity gains, but does not fundamentally unlock new capabilities or transform the economy.
In this state of the world, GenAI tools enhance efficiency and enable more personalized solutions across industries, in ways that have incremental—but still meaningful—effects on people’s lives. For instance, in customer service, professional writing—but not this speech—and software engineering, GenAI-powered tools are already supporting workers, improving accuracy and speed, and these effects could spread to other sectors.10 In this world, health care sees significant improvements as GenAI reduces administrative burdens, assists with diagnostics, and personalizes treatment plans based on real-time patient data. Medicines and other treatments are developed at a faster pace.11 Education is similarly affected, as GenAI alleviates administrative tasks for teachers, allows lessons to be tailored to individual students, and permits students to learn by doing.12 In manufacturing, GenAI-optimized supply chains anticipate and adjust more quickly to disruptions, and current manufacturing processes are refined through virtual iteration.13 In materials science, GenAI-driven experimentation accelerates the discovery of new materials, leading to advances in everything from construction to electronics.14 Turning to the financial sector, we could see similar productivity gains. Community banks leverage GenAI-powered chatbots to provide customized financial advice rooted in local knowledge, while institutions of all sizes continue to advance use of GenAI for compliance monitoring, fraud detection, risk management, and document analysis.15
The impact to society would be incrementally positive in this state of the world. Humans would use GenAI as a tool to deliver goods and services that we currently produce in a more efficient way. Productivity would go up. The economy would grow at a faster pace.16
What does this mean for the labor force? The impact will depend on the industry and the nature of the job. GenAI experiments suggest the technology holds the promise of levelling up skills and bringing productivity of lower-performing workers into line with higher performing workers.17 In other cases, it could augment the highest performers, leaving them more time for creativity or strategic aspects of their roles. Increasing automation for certain tasks may displace some workers, where certain skills can be replicated by GenAI. Historically, as technology has replaced some jobs, it has augmented existing roles or created new ones.18 However, this is not to downplay the individual cost for workers who need to retrain, find other employment, or change careers in response to major changes in labor demand. Society will need to account for these possible effects of AI.
What does this mean for the economy? As I noted before, the economy should grow, if the incremental productivity gains are widespread. However, in this scenario, it is possible that the expected value creation from GenAI was overhyped, anticipating transformative breakthroughs rather than incremental productivity gains. This could trigger market corrections for the firms that have heavily invested in this technology if reality doesn’t measure up to expectations. While the U.S. economy experienced a surge of productivity growth during the dot.com boom in the late 1990s, it was followed by a wave of bankruptcies, capital overhang, and a cautious business investment climate.19 The effects of the ensuing recession were widespread.
What does this mean for financial stability and other financial risks? In this incremental scenario, GenAI may magnify both the vulnerabilities and sources of resilience that already exist in the system. Attractive trades become more crowded, but risk managers gain new insights.20 Malicious actors gain new tools, but cyber defenders become better armed. So long as financial regulators, enterprise risk managers, and others charged with managing downside risks prioritize efforts to keep pace with the evolving financial ecosystem, there’s nothing to suggest a wholesale transformation of the balance of risks. Of course, keeping pace will pose challenges, and it’s important that we all focus on the need to meet these risks.
Hypothetical Scenario 2: Transformative ChangeNow, let’s consider a more dramatic hypothetical scenario, in which GenAI adoption extends beyond improving on what we currently do, and provides new expertise and capabilities that have transformative effects on the economy and society. In this scenario, humans deploy their imagination and creativity—combined with robust investment in research and development—to deploy intelligent GenAI systems to make rapid breakthroughs in, for example, biotechnology, robotics, and energy, fundamentally reshaping existing industries and creating new ones. In this instance, to focus the mind, we can think of GenAI as no longer only a tool for scientists to analyze data—in a sense, it becomes the scientist, directing the research.21
For instance, let’s say that GenAI applications in health care do not simply improve how we currently deliver care, but also enable therapies that target genetic mutations and cure diseases previously considered incurable.22 Similarly, manufacturing evolves to create GenAI-driven robotic factories, with goods produced with new materials and atomic precision.23 Materials science is transformed through the discovery of programmable materials and self-healing substances, all of which reshape construction, technology, and consumer goods.24 Meanwhile, GenAI optimizes fusion energy research, expediting the shift to sustainable energy sources.25 And GenAI helps to create the next generation of quantum computing.26 In that way, GenAI improves its own energy sources and computing capabilities, enabling it to become a more powerful creative tool.27
Finance also looks radically different than it does today. Individuals with access to hyper-personalized financial planning and businesses with innovative products and services seamlessly connect with one another through near-frictionless or novel forms of financial intermediation.28 Trading strategies and risk-management practices are boosted by greater GenAI-based analytic tools that have dynamic real-time access to an enormous knowledge base in both the public and private domains.29
Although this transformative scenario is more speculative and is accompanied by a far greater degree of uncertainty than the first, it is important to consider given the extraordinary opportunities for human advancement and welfare that could arise, even if just one of its transformative components were to come to fruition. We would need to fundamentally reimagine how the economy is structured.
What are the impacts on the labor force, in a world where GenAI’s capabilities extend beyond what humans can accomplish today? Humans may have a role to manage multi-agent GenAI frameworks, or fill gaps where GenAI solutions remain expensive or inefficient for some applications. But this is a world where some workers may see their current jobs disappearing. It is also a world in which they may see their own work transformed and have many more choices about the work they do. The nature of labor would radically change, and this will require us to have broader conversations about how to organize the economy. These conversations should wrestle with how to navigate major economic shifts in a way that recognizes the impact on the human condition, and the extent to which people derive their communities, friendships, personal sense of meaning and dignity from their work.
What about the competitive landscape? There is probably a greater likelihood that rewards for businesses would be distributed more unevenly at first, as significant breakthroughs with far-reaching ramifications may benefit a subset of firms and industries and concentrate economic power in firms that control GenAI breakthroughs. If only a handful of firms have the ability to accomplish the incredible things I’ve mentioned above, they may dominate markets and crowd out competitors. To the extent that GenAI becomes broadly effective, widely available, and cheap, these market advantages could lessen over time if the right regulatory environment supports competitive market dynamics.30 But history suggests caution in this regard; a handful of players may dominate.31
And finally, for finance, we should anticipate fundamental changes in this scenario. When it’s working well, the financial system helps move money and risk through time and space.32 To the extent there are fundamental changes to how the economy is organized, we could need a new set of institutions, markets, and products to facilitate transactions among households, businesses, and GenAI agents.
What Should We Do?Among the many ways in which we can help to harness the potential benefits of GenAI and minimize its risks, I will highlight only a couple today.
Financial institutions, and the Federal Reserve System, should consider investing sufficient resources in understanding GenAI technology, incorporating it into their workflows where appropriate, and training staff on how to use the technology responsibly and effectively.33 Meanwhile, the financial regulatory community should approach the changing landscape with agility and flexibility. And beyond the financial sector, collaboration between governments, private industry, and research institutions will be critical to ensure that GenAI systems are not weaponized in catastrophic ways. We should continue to focus on responsible AI research and development and implement safeguards against misuse, including monitoring systems, standards for secure AI system development, and agreement on red lines for acceptable use cases.34 We should be attuned to the impact of GenAI on our economic and political institutions. There’s a risk that it concentrates economic and political power in the hands of the very few and could lead to the gains being realized only by a small group, while the rest are left behind.
Another thing I want to emphasize is AI governance. I think most would agree that the goal of the technology is to improve the human condition, and to do that, we need to be intentional in advancing that goal. We should make sure that we think about GenAI as enhancing, not replacing, humans, and set up best practices and cultural norms to that end. Every financial institution should recognize the limitations of the technology, explore where and when GenAI belongs in any process, and identify how humans can be best positioned to be in the loop. We should also focus on data quality, and make sure that uses of GenAI do not perpetuate or amplify biases inherent in the data used to train the system or make incorrect inferences to the extent the data is incomplete or nonrepresentative.35 In the realm of regulation, frameworks for understanding model risk may need to be updated to address the complexity and challenges of explaining AI methods and the difficulty of assessing data quality.
We need to be attuned to the risk in finance. The very attributes that make GenAI attractive—the speed, automaticity, and ability to optimize financial strategies—also present risk.36 When the technology becomes ubiquitous, use of GenAI could lead to herding behavior and the concentration of risk, potentially amplifying market volatility. As GenAI agents will be directed to maximize profit, they may converge on strategies to maximize returns through coordinated market manipulation, potentially fueling asset bubbles and crashes. Speed, automaticity, and ubiquity could generate new risks at wide scale.37
We also should monitor how introduction of this technology changes the banking landscape. Nonbanks may be more nimble and risk-forward in incorporating GenAI into their operations, which may push intermediation to less-regulated, less transparent corners of the financial sector. In addition, this competitive pressure may push all institutions, including regulated institutions, to take a more aggressive approach to GenAI adoption, heightening the governance, alignment, and financial risks I mentioned before.
In conclusion, while AI’s impact will vary across industries and the reality is evolving, the scenarios I have outlined today provide a framework to begin thinking about how we should respond to developments in GenAI. However, as I mentioned above, elements of both scenarios will likely be present in the future, and play out at different rates, which will influence the effects on the economy and society. Rapid advances in this technology, such as Agentic AI and advancements in open-source models, underscore just how new this technology is and the importance of understanding what it means for individuals, businesses, and markets. Thank you.

1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board. Return to text
2. See, for instance, Lisa D. Cook, “Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, and the Path Ahead for Productivity,” (speech at Technology-Enabled Disruption: Implications of AI, Big Data, and Remote Work Conference, Atlanta, Georgia, October 1, 2024). Return to text
3. See Gaurav Sett, “How AI Can Automate AI Research and Development,” RAND Commentary, October 24, 2024. Return to text
4. See Cory Breaux and Emin Dinlersoz, “How Many U.S. Businesses Use Artificial Intelligence?” (Washington: U.S. Census Bureau, November 28, 2023); Alexander Bick, Adam Blandin, and David J. Deming, “The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI,” NBER Working Paper No. 32966 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, September 2024, revised February 2025); and Leland Crane, Michael Green, and Paul Soto, “Measuring AI Uptake in the Workplace,” FEDS Notes (Washington: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 5, 2025). Return to text
5. There’s evidence of firms experimenting with these tools and then abandoning them—due to a multitude of reasons. See Kathryn Bonney, Cory Breaux, Cathy Buffington, Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia S. Foster, Nathan Goldschlag, John C. Haltiwanger, Zachary Kroff, and Keith Savage, “Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time: A Snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey,” NBER Working Paper No. 32319 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2024). Return to text
6. For more on Agentic AI’s uses, advantages, and risks, see Mark Purdy, “What Is Agentic AI, and How Will It Change Work?” Harvard Business Review (December 12, 2024). Return to text
7. See Dario Amodei, “Machines of Loving Grace,” October 2024, https://darioamodei.com/machines-of-loving-grace. Return to text
8. For biology and drug discovery, see Jean-Philippe Vert, “Unlocking the Mysteries of Complex Biological Systems with Agentic AI,” MIT Technology Review (November 13, 2024), https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/11/13/1106750/unlocking-the-mysteries-of-complex-biological-systems-with-agentic-ai; and “Owkin Announces First Patient Dosed in Phase I AI-Optimized Clinical Trial of OKN4395, a First-in-Class EP2/EP4/DP1 Triple Inhibitor for Patients with Solid Tumors,” Business Wire, January 30, 2025, https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20250130436779/en/Owkin-Announces-First-Patient-Dosed-in-Phase-I-AI-optimized-Clinical-Trial-of-OKN4395-a-First-in-Class-EP2EP4DP1-Triple-Inhibitor-for-Patients-with-Solid-Tumors. Return to text
9. Others have used other types of scenarios. See Anton Korinek, “The Economics of Transformative AI,” The Reporter (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, December 31, 2024); Iñaki Aldasoro, Leonardo Gambacorta, Anton Korinek, Vatsala Shreeti, and Merlin Stein, “Intelligent Financial System: How AI Is Transforming Finance (PDF),” BIS Working Papers No. 1194 (Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, June 2024); and Ethan Mollick, Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI (New York: Portfolio/Penguin, 2024). Return to text
10. For worker productivity gains in customer service, see Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li, and Lindsey R. Raymond, “Generative AI at Work,” NBER Working Paper No. 31161 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, April 2023, revised November 2023). For GenAI assisted writing gains, see Shakked Noy and Whitney Zhang, “Experimental Evidence on the Productivity Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence,” Science, vol. 381, no. 6654 (July 2023): 187–92; Jordan Usdan, Allison Connell Pensky, and Harley Chang, “Generative AI’s Impact on Graduate Student Writing Productivity and Quality,” SSRN (August 29, 2024), https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4941022. For software engineering, see Sida Peng, Eirini Kalliamvakou, Peter Cihon, and Mert Demirer, “The Impact of AI on Developer Productivity: Evidence from GitHub Copilot,” arXiv:2302.06590, February 13, 2023; Leonardo Gambacorta, Han Qiu, Shuo Shan, and Daniel M. Rees, “Generative AI and Labour Productivity: A Field Experiment on Coding (PDF),” BIS Working Papers No. 1208 (Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, September 2024); Zheyuan (Kevin) Cui, Mert Demirer, Sonia Jaffe, Leon Musolff, Sida Peng, and Tobias Salz, “The Effects of Generative AI on High-Skilled Work: Evidence from Three Field Experiments with Software Developers,” SSRN (September 5, 2024, revised February 10, 2025), https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4945566. For worker gains in the consulting industry, see Fabrizio Dell’Acqua, Edward McFowland III, Ethan Mollick, Hila Lifshitz-Assaf, Katherine C. Kellogg, Saran Rajendran, Lisa Krayer, François Candelon, and Karim R. Lakhani, “Navigating the Jagged Technological Frontier: Field Experimental Evidence of the Effects of AI on Knowledge Worker Productivity and Quality (PDF),” Harvard Business School Working Paper No. 24-013 (September 2023). Return to text
11. See Ethan Goh, Robert Gallo, Jason Hom, et al., “Large Language Model Influence on Diagnostic Reasoning: A Randomized Clinical Trial,” JAMA Network Open (October 28, 2024), https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2825395; Nikhil Agarwal, Alex Moehring, Pranav Rajpurkar, and Tobias Salz, “Combining Human Expertise with Artificial Intelligence: Experimental Evidence from Radiology,” NBER Working Paper No. 31422 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, July 2023, revised March 2024); Ashley Capoot, “Reid Hoffman Enters ‘Wondrous and Terrifying’ World of Health Care with Latest AI Startup,” CNBC, February 2, 2025, https://www.cnbc.com/2025/02/02/reid-hoffman-launches-manas-ai-a-new-drug-discovery-startup.html; Kang Zhang, Xin Yang, Yifei Wang, Yunfang Yu, Niu Huang, Gen Li, Xiaokun Li, Joseph C. Wu, and Shengyong Yang, “Artificial Intelligence in Drug Development,” Nature Medicine, vol. 31 (January 2025): 45–59, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-024-03434-4; Qian Liao, Yu Zhang, Ying Chu, Yi Ding, Zhen Liu, Xianyi Zhao, Yizheng Wang, Jie Wan, Yijie Ding, Prayag Tiwari, Quan Zou, and Ke Han, “Application of Artificial Intelligence in Drug-Target Interactions Prediction: A Review,” NPJ Biomedical Innovations, vol. 2, no. 1 (January 2025), https://doi.org/10.1038/s44385-024-00003-9. Return to text
12. For more on education, see Justin Wolfers, “An Econ Educators Guide to our AI-Powered Future,” Macmillan Learning, EconEd (presentation), September 26, 2024, https://www.macmillanlearning.com/college/us/events/econed; and Anne J. Manning, “Professor Tailored AI Tutor to Physics Course. Engagement Doubled,” Harvard Gazette, September 5, 2024. Return to text
13. See Maxime C. Cohen and Christopher S. Tang, “The Role of AI in Developing Resilient Supply Chains,” Georgetown Journal of International Affairs (February 5, 2024); and Remko Van Hoek and Mary Lacity, “How Global Companies Use AI to Prevent Supply Chain Disruptions,” Harvard Business Review, November 21, 2023. Return to text
14. See Sheldon Fernandez, “How Generative AI Can Be Used in Electronics,” Forbes, April 26, 2023, https://www.forbes.com/councils/forbestechcouncil/2023/04/26/how-generative-ai-can-be-used-in-electronics-manufacturing. Return to text
15. For U.S. financial institutions, see Elizabeth Judd, “How to Balance Human and Machine While Using Chatbots,” Independent Banker, January 1, 2025; and U.S. Department of the Treasury, “Artificial Intelligence in Financial Services (PDF)” (Washington: U.S. Department of the Treasury, December 2024). For foreign financial institutions, see Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority, “Artificial Intelligence in UK Financial Services—2024” (London: Bank of England and Financial Conduct Authority, November 21, 2024); and Bank of Japan, “Use and Risk Management of Generative AI by Japanese Financial Institutions,” Financial System Report Annex (Tokyo: Bank of Japan, October 29, 2024). For global financial institutions, see OECD, “FSB Roundtable on Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Finance (PDF),” Financial Stability Board, September 30, 2024. Return to text
16. Lida R. Weinstock and Paul Tierno, “The Macroeconomic Effects of Artificial Intelligence (PDF),” Congressional Research Service, January 28, 2025. Return to text
17. See Shakked Noy and Whitney Zhang, “Experimental Evidence on the Productivity Effects of Generative Artificial Intelligence,” Science, vol. 381, no. 6654 (July 13, 2023): 187–92; Brynjolfsson et al., “Generative AI at Work” (see footnote 9); and “for software engineering” from footnote 9; Korinek (2024) from footnote 7. Return to text
18. See David H. Autor, “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 29, no. 3 (Summer 2015): 3–30.See Simona Abis and Laura Veldkamp. Return to text
19. See Ben S. Bernanke, “Will Business Investment Bounce Back?” (speech at the Forecasters Club, New York, NY, April 24, 2003). Return to text
20. See Financial Stability Board, The Financial Stability Implications of Artificial Intelligence (Basel, Switzerland: Financial Stability Board, November 14, 2024); and Jon Danielsson and Andreas Uthemann, “How AI Can Undermine Financial Stability,” VoxEU: CEPR, January 22, 2024. Return to text
21. For some very early examples, see Davide Castelvecchi, “Researchers Built an ‘AI Scientist’—What Can It Do?” Nature, August 30, 2024, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02842-3; Daniil A. Boiko, Robert MacKnight, Ben Kline, and Gabe Gomes, “Autonomous Chemical Research with Large Language Models,” Nature, December 20, 2023, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06792-0; and Helena Kudiabor, “Virtual Lab Powered by ‘AI Scientists’ Super-Charges Biomedical Research,” Nature, December 4, 2024, https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-01684-3. Return to text
22. For more on drug discovery and gene therapy, see Betty Zou, “Team Uses AI and Quantum Computing to Target ‘Undruggable’ Cancer Protein,” Phys Org, January 27, 2025; and Mohammad Ghazi Vakili et al., “Quantum-Computing-Enhanced Algorithm Unveils Potential KRAS Inhibitors,” Nature Biotechnology, January 22, 2025, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41587-024-02526-3. Return to text
23. See NASA Technology Transfer Program, “Robonaut 2: Hazardous Environments (MSC-TOPS-44)”. Return to text
24. For more on material sciences innovation, see Andy Extance, “First GPT-4-Powered AI Lab Assistant Independently Directs Key Organic Reactions,” Chemistry World, January 8, 2024, https://www.chemistryworld.com/news/first-gpt-4-powered-ai-lab-assistant-independently-directs-key-organic-reactions/4018723.article; Chenyang Liu, Xi Zhang, Jiahui Chang, You Lyu, Jianan Zhao, and Song Qiu, “Programmable Mechanical Metamaterials: Basic Concepts, Types, Construction Strategies—A Review,” Frontiers, vol. 11 (March 19, 2024); Aidan Toner-Rodgers, “Artificial Intelligence, Scientific Discovery, and Product Innovation,” MIT, November 27, 2024, https://aidantr.github.io/files/AI_innovation.pdf; and Thomas Hayes et al., “Simulating 500 Million Years of Evolution with a Language Model,” Science, January 16, 2025. Return to text
25. See Tan Sui, “AI Could Help Overcome the Hurdles to Making Nuclear Fusion a Practical Energy Source,” The Conversation, January 29, 2025, https://theconversation.com/ai-could-help-overcome-the-hurdles-to-making-nuclear-fusion-a-practical-energy-source-247608; Jaemin Seo, SangKyeun Kim, Azarakhsh Jalalvand, Rory Conlin, Andrew Rothstein, Joseph Abbate, Keith Erickson, Josiah Wai, Ricardo Shousha, and Egemen Kolemen, “Avoiding Fusion Plasma Tearing Instability with Deep Reinforcement Learning,” Nature, vol. 626, February 21, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-07024-9; and Massimiliano Lupo Pasini, German Samolyuk, Markus Eisenbach, Jong Youl Choi, Junqi Yin, and Ying Yang, “First-Principles Data for Solid Solution Niobium-Tantalum-Vanadium Alloys with Body-Centered-Cubic Structures,” Nature: Scientific Data, vol. 11, no. 907 (August 22, 2024), https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-03720-3. Return to text
26. Nakia Melecio, “Exploring the Synergy: Quantum Computing and Generative AI at the Intersection of Innovation,” ScaleUp Lab Program, Enterprise Innovation Institute, Georgia Tech. Return to text
27. For an example on GenAI and quantum computers, see Rahul Rao, “Quantum Computers Can Now Run Powerful AI That Works like the Brain,” Scientific American, April 22, 2024, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/quantum-computers-can-run-powerful-ai-that-works-like-the-brain. For an example about AI and clean energy, see Office of Policy, “How AI Can Help Clean Energy Meet Growing Electricity Demand” (Washington: U.S. Department of Energy, August 16, 2024). For examples of how GenAI is augmenting creativity, see Tojin T. Eapen, Daniel J. Finkenstadt, Josh Folk, and Lokesh Venkataswamy, “How Generative AI Can Augment Human Creativity,” Harvard Business Review (July–August 2023); and Anil R. Doshi and Oliver P. Hauser, “Generative AI Enhances Individual Creativity but Reduces the Collective Diversity of Novel Content,” Science Advances, vol. 10, no. 28 (July 12, 2024). Return to text
28. See Iñaki Aldasoro, Leonardo Gambacorta, Anton Korinek, Vatsala Shreeti, and Merlin Stein, “Intelligent Financial System: How AI Is Transforming Finance (PDF),” BIS Working Papers No. 1194 (Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, June 2024); and Sarah Hammer, “From Turing to Trading: How AI Is Revolutionizing Finance,” Finance Centers at the Wharton School, July 10, 2024. Return to text
29. Large language models may even allow for the creation of synthetic data that allows for enhancing macroeconomic nowcasting and forecasting through economic AI agents that can also help with analyzing macroeconomic trends and contribute to more informed financial decisionmaking. See Anne Lundgaard Hansen, John J. Horton, Sophia Kazinnik, Daniela Puzzello, and Ali Zarifhonarvar, “Simulating the Survey of Professional Forecasters,” SSRN (December 1, 2024), https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5066286. Return to text
30. Kelly Ng, Brandon Drenon, Tom Gerken, and Marc Cieslak, “DeepSeek: The Chinese AI App That Has the World Talking,” BBC News, February 4, 2025, https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c5yv5976z9po. Return to text
31. For example, see IBM Newsroom, “Data Suggests Growth in Enterprise Adoption of AI Is Due to Widespread Deployment by Early Adopters, But Barriers Keep 40% in the Exploration and Experimentation Phases,” IBM, January 10, 2024, https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-01-10-Data-Suggests-Growth-in-Enterprise-Adoption-of-AI-is-Due-to-Widespread-Deployment-by-Early-Adopters; and Jefferies Editorial Team, “Can Startups Outsmart Big Tech in the AI Race?” Jefferies, September 17, 2024, https://www.jefferies.com/insights/boardroom-intelligence/can-startups-outsmart-big-tech-in-the-ai-race. Return to text
32. If AI agents proliferate in financial transactions, we will also need to be careful about the potential for unintended consequences such as collusion among AI agents. See Winston Wei Dou, Itay Goldstein, and Yan Ji, “AI-Powered Trading, Algorithmic Collusion, and Price Efficiency,” Jacobs Levy Equity Management Center for Quantitative Financial Research Paper, The Wharton School Research Paper, May 30, 2024, https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4452704. Return to text
33. See Request for Information on the Development of an Artificial Intelligence (AI) Action Plan, 90 Fed. Reg. 9,088 (PDF) (February 6, 2025). Return to text
34. See Heather Domin, “AI Governance Trends: How Regulation, Collaboration, and Skills Demand Are Shaping the Industry,” World Economic Forum, September 5, 2024. Return to text
35. For more on bias introduced in models, see Moshe Glickman and Tali Sharot, “How Human–AI Feedback Loops Alter Human Perceptual, Emotional, and Social Judgements,” Nature Human Behavior, December 18, 2024, https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-02077-2; Saul Asiel Flores, “‘Bias in, Bias out’: Tackling Bias in Medical Artificial Intelligence,” Yale School of Medicine, November 18, 2024; and Adam Zewe, “Researchers Reduce Bias in AI Models While Preserving or Improving Accuracy,” MIT News, December 11, 2024. For governance in central banks, see Claudia Alvarez Toca and Alexandre Tombini, Governance of AI Adoption in Central Banks (PDF) (Basel, Switzerland: Bank for International Settlements, January 2025). Return to text
36. See, e.g., Michael P. Wellman, “Artificial Intelligence in Financial Services (PDF)” (written testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, September 20, 2023). Return to text
37. See Jon Danielsson and Andreas Uthemann, “AI Financial Crises,” VoxEU: CEPR, July 26, 2024. For more on algorithm collusion, see Wei Dou et al., “AI-Powered Trading, Algorithmic Collusion, and Price Efficiency” (see footnote 33). Return to text

MIL OSI USA News –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI USA: Governor Stein Declares State of Emergency, Shares Updates on Winter Weather
Source: US State of North Carolina

Headline: Governor Stein Declares State of Emergency, Shares Updates on Winter Weather

Governor Stein Declares State of Emergency, Shares Updates on Winter Weather
lsaito
Tue, 02/18/2025 – 12:24

Raleigh, NC
Today, Governor Stein declared a state of emergency as emergency officials prepare for winter weather to impact the majority of the state. In a briefing this morning, Governor Stein, Director of Emergency Management Will Ray, and Secretary of Transportation Secretary Joey Hopkins provided an update on the winter weather that will impact much of the state starting Wednesday and into Thursday. The Governor advised that all North Carolinians take precautions by listening to local officials and plan accordingly for low temperatures, ice, and snow.
“This morning, I declared a state of emergency across North Carolina, and we are activating a cross-agency storm response,” said Governor Josh Stein. “Most of North Carolina will be impacted by this storm, and our greatest concerns are potential power outages and road safety. We urge all travelers to stay off the road once the storm hits on Wednesday, to keep their devices charged, and to monitor local weather.”

“The State Emergency Response Team has been activated and is working with the Department of Transportation, North Carolina National Guard, State Highway Patrol, Department of Health and Human Services, and local emergency management to provide resources quickly throughout the state,” said Director of Emergency Management Will Ray. “We ask that all North Carolinians continue to monitor the weather tomorrow and stay off the roads when possible.”

A winter storm will impact much of North Carolina Wednesday into Thursday. The forecast for northern central and eastern North Carolina includes snowfall accumulations of 2 to 6 inches, with localized totals reaching up to 9 inches across the far northeast. The northern mountains and higher elevations in western North Carolina are expected to receive 2 to 4 inches of snow. Elsewhere, lighter snowfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are anticipated, with the exception of far southeastern North Carolina, where light freezing rain or rain is expected.

Significant ice accumulation is possible in parts of central and eastern North Carolina. Accumulations of a quarter inch or more may cause tree limbs to break and lead to power outages. It is crucial for all North Carolinians to stay informed about the weather, as the forecast will be updated and refined as Wednesday approaches.

The State Emergency Response Team is activated, and the State Emergency Operations Center and Regional Coordination Centers remain in close communication with local emergency management officials to ensure that all resources are available and ready to quickly respond to aid our North Carolina communities.

The North Carolina National Guard (NCNG) has activated more than 180 guardsmen to assist and support local communities across the state.

More than 1,500 employees with the N.C. Department of Transportation have been pre-treating roads across the state. As of Tuesday morning, the agency had spread 1.8 million gallons of brine to pretreat hundreds of miles of interstates, highways, and secondary roads statewide. Nearly 600 trucks with plows and spreaders and 240 motor graders are ready to remove snow and ice, and more than 130,000 tons of salt are ready to treat roads after the storm hits.

Once the storm hits, NCDOT crews are prepared to work around-the-clock in shifts to plow and treat snow and ice until all state-maintained roads are cleared. The agency will prioritize clearing interstates first, followed by U.S. and N.C. routes and then secondary roads.

Visit ReadyNC.gov for power outage information and for information on how you and your family can prepare for winter weather. For real-time travel information, visit DriveNC.gov or follow NCDOT on social media.

To prepare for winter weather, North Carolina Emergency Management officials recommend these tips:

Pay close attention to your local forecast and be prepared for what’s expected in your area. Use a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration weather radio or a weather alert app on your phone to receive emergency weather alerts.

Stock up on water and non-perishable food.

Keep cell phones, mobile devices, and spare batteries charged.

Stay home and off the roads if you can.

Store an emergency kit in your vehicle in case you must travel. Include scraper, jumper cables, tow chain, sand/salt, blankets, flashlight, first-aid kit, and road map.

Dress warmly if you go outside. Wear multiple layers of thin clothing instead of a single layer of thick clothing.

Gather emergency supplies for your pet including leash and feeding supplies, enough food for several days, and a pet travel carrier.

Do not leave pets outside for long periods of time during freezing weather.

Check in on your friends and neighbors, especially the elderly, during winter weather.

If your power goes out:
Only operate generators outside and away from open windows or doors to prevent carbon monoxide poisoning.

Never burn charcoal indoors or use a gas grill indoors.

Properly vent kerosene heaters.

Use battery-powered sources for light, instead of candles, to reduce the risk of fire.

If you are utilizing a portable heater, make sure that it is properly ventilated, has at least 3 feet of space on all sides, and never leave children unattended near a heater.
Feb 18, 2025

MIL OSI USA News –
February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI USA: ICE Philadelphia apprehends alien previously arrested for multiple criminal offenses

Source: US Immigration and Customs Enforcement

YORK, Pa. – U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrested Noel Chinchilla-Avilez, a citizen of Honduras with a final order of removal, in York, Pennsylvania, Feb. 14. Chinchilla-Avilez has been charged with statutory rape and receiving stolen property in the United States.

“The arrest of Noel Chinchilla-Avilez, a criminal alien with a history of serious offenses, highlights our unwavering commitment to public safety. Our officers work tirelessly to protect our communities by removing individuals who pose a threat to our nation’s security,” said ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations Philadelphia acting Field Office Director Brian McShane. “We will continue to prioritize the safety and wellbeing of the American public by ensuring that dangerous criminals are held accountable and removed from our streets.”

“Today’s operation displays the dedication and expertise of our ICE team in tracking criminals. By targeting individuals with serious criminal backgrounds, we are sending a clear message that there is no safe-haven for those who commit heinous acts,” said ICE Homeland Security Investigations Philadelphia Special Agent in Charge Edward V. Owens. “Operations like this demonstrate our commitment to upholding the rule of law and ensuring the safety of the American public.”

A federal arrest warrant for Chinchilla-Avilez was obtained from the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Pennsylvania, Feb. 10, for violation of failure to depart.

Chinchilla-Avilez was transported to the U.S. District Courthouse in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, after his arrest and is currently remanded to federal custody while pending criminal proceedings.

Members of the public who have information about foreign fugitives, transnational gang members or other criminal aliens who are in the U.S. illegally are urged to contact ICE by calling the ICE Tip Line at 1 (866) 347-2423 or internationally at 001-1802-872-6199. They can also file a tip online by completing ICE’s online tip form.

For more news and information on how ICE carries out its immigration enforcement mission in Pennsylvania, Delaware and West Virginia, follow us on X at @EROPhiladelphia.

MIL OSI USA News –

February 19, 2025
MIL-OSI Global: Supersonic passenger aircraft may be returning – here’s what it means for the climate

Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kshitij Sabnis, Lecturer in Aerospace Engineering, Queen Mary University of London

The US aerospace company Boom Supersonic recently announced it has successfully tested its latest aircraft, the XB-1. The company is developing a larger plane and aims to begin passenger flights at supersonic (faster than sound) speed within the next five years, and claims it already has orders from a handful of airlines.

However, with ever-increasing scrutiny on the environmental consequences of flying, it is important to consider how supersonic aviation may affect the industry’s ability to meet its ambitious net zero by 2050 target.

The latest test flight represents an important stage in the development of supersonic aircraft that minimise their characteristic “sonic boom” – the considerable noise generated as the shock waves travelling along with a supersonic aircraft pass over people on the ground.

Boom Supersonic has carefully designing the aircraft shape to reduce this noise pollution. It did this by exploiting a phenomenon known as “Mach cutoff”, where air temperatures in the atmosphere cause shock waves to reflect upwards rather than towards the ground.

Supersonic aircraft won’t receive certification to fly over land if they are too noisy, and overland flights are essential for their commercial viability. Indeed, failing to receive such certification limited Concorde’s routes to London-New York and Paris-New York, ultimately contributing to its demise. These recent noise improvements pave the way for Boom Supersonic to progress its larger 80-seat supersonic airliner, Overture. If all goes to plan, Overture will cruise at 1.7 times the speed of sound and could fly from London to New York in just 3.5 hours.

Other organisations working on supersonic flight are making similar progress. US firm Spike Aerospace is developing a smaller business jet, for instance, while Nasa and defence and aerospace firm Lockheed Martin plan to begin test flying their supersonic X-59 later this year. There is every indication that planes like these are on their way back, more than two decades after Concorde last took to the skies.

Concorde’s maiden flight back in 1969. It flew commercially between 1976 and 2003.
Andre Cros / wiki, CC BY-SA

Shock waves increase aerodynamic drag

The key to understanding the environmental effects of supersonic aircraft is that, whenever its speed exceeds the speed of sound, shock waves form around the aircraft. These shock waves significantly increase the aerodynamic drag, and so more fuel needs to be burned to compensate for the drag force. Indeed, it is estimated that up to ten times more fuel needs to be burned by a supersonic aircraft compared to the equivalent subsonic airplane for every passenger mile.

At supersonic speeds, sound itself is a drag.
Chabacano / wiki, CC BY-SA

The cost of this extra fuel is why typical aircraft speeds have remained pretty constant at around 85% of the speed of sound for several decades. It also leads to greater greenhouse gas emissions – as much as five to seven times more than subsonic aircraft.

In fact, the situation may be even more stark. Supersonic aircraft tend to fly at high altitudes (Concorde flew at 60,000ft (18km) rather than the 40,000ft (12km) typical for most passenger jets) to take advantage of lower turbulence levels. This means their emissions tend to remain in the atmosphere for longer.

Supersonic and sustainable?

There are considerable efforts to align supersonic aircraft development with the aviation industry’s environmental ambitions. For instance, the new engines designed by Boom Supersonic are powered entirely by “sustainable aviation fuels” (Saf) which are direct replacements for traditional jet fuels that are made from renewable raw materials, often used cooking oil or crop residues. Due to its exclusive use of Saf, the Overture is advertised as having a zero-carbon footprint.

A concept image of the Overture, the plane Boom Supersonic ultimately wants to build.
Boom Supersonic, CC BY-SA

In reality, the situation is more complex. Saf is often produced from edible crops and has been linked to deforestation – the total land required to power all of commercial aviation in this way is impractically immense.

To address this longer-term problem, it is necessary to look towards alternative fuel sources. While hydrogen or electric power is being developed for regular aircraft, for now they aren’t developed enough to ensure a plane reaches supersonic speeds. Instead, one possibility is e-kerosene, a synthetic fuel generated from hydrogen and carbon dioxide using renewable electricity.

Despite all these technological advances, a supersonic aircraft still cannot beat physics. Shock waves, and their associated drag, will still exist. So, a single supersonic aircraft will still produce considerably more carbon emissions than its subsonic counterpart.

Beyond carbon emissions, contrails also have an effect. These are thin clouds of water vapour produced by aircraft exhausts, which can trap heat in the atmosphere the same way as greenhouse gases. These contrails are thought to have twice the impact of carbon emissions, or perhaps even more, so it is essential to take their effects into account. For now, we simply don’t know enough about contrails, especially at much higher altitudes, to definitively say how supersonic aircraft will affect the environment.

Given the costs involved, supersonic aircraft will account for only a very small percentage of aircraft worldwide. The overall impact on the environment, in comparison to the tens of thousands of subsonic aircraft currently in operation, will be moderate.

There is perhaps one environmental upside. The research and development activity making supersonic aviation more environmentally friendly (such as developments in fuel and propulsion technology) will likely yield technologies that transfer to subsonic aircraft too. This should help to address the much broader problem of environmental damage caused by the aviation industry as a whole.

Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

Kshitij Sabnis does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

– ref. Supersonic passenger aircraft may be returning – here’s what it means for the climate – https://theconversation.com/supersonic-passenger-aircraft-may-be-returning-heres-what-it-means-for-the-climate-250116

MIL OSI – Global Reports –

February 19, 2025