NewzIntel.com

Category: Latin America

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: expert reaction to study looking at ultra-processed food consumption and premature deaths

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    A study published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine looks at ultra-processed foods (UPFs) and premature mortality. 

    Prof Nita Forouhi, Professor of Population Health and Nutrition, MRC Epidemiology Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

    “There are limitations to this paper, including the points the authors themselves raised.  Nonetheless, evidence on the ‘health harms of UPF’ are accumulating and this paper does add to that body of evidence, and UPFs are unlikely to be healthful.

    “We already know that correlation does not necessarily mean causation.  But well conducted observational studies with long term prospective cohort data are often the best we are going to get realistically; we will not get randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of behaviours awaiting death or chronic disease events, and RCTs have their own biases and limitations, particularly for behavioural factors (different to taking medication vs placebo studies).  So we should not ignore such findings, especially as the current research has reported consistently similar associations in several countries which increases the degree of confidence.

    “In addition to the 8 countries they included for their population attributable fraction (PAF) estimates (Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, UK, USA), it would have been useful if they had also included the countries that provided the results on associations of UPFs with mortality but were not included (e.g. France, Italy, Spain).”

    Prof Kevin McConway, Emeritus Professor of Applied Statistics, Open University, said:

    “I’d be pretty cautious about the details and specific numerical estimates in this paper, for reasons I’ll explain.  Also, some of the terminology in the paper and the press release appears, in my opinion, much more definite about what’s causing what than the evidence in the paper merits.  That’s partly because some of the technical wording, even though it’s standard in this kind of research, doesn’t mean quite the same as it means in ordinary English.

    “The problems of interpretation arise because the studies involved are observational, but they go further than that.  The researchers have to make mathematical assumptions about exactly how UPF consumption is correlated with mortality risk, and even though they base these assumptions on data, there is at least one issue (described later).  And in calculating what’s known as the attributable epidemiological burden, or population attributable fraction, of UPF consumptions, the researchers may appear to be making a simple comparison, but in fact it’s a lot more complicated than you might think.

    “The data that the paper draws on for its conclusions, about consumption of UPFs and mortality, is all observational.  The researchers are not reporting any new data here – they are taking data from previous studies, and population estimates for the countries concerned, and putting it all together.  Nothing at all wrong with that – in fact in general it’s a good idea to review studies of the same things from different times and places, to see what overall picture emerges.

    “The seven studies that the authors of this paper used, to find an overall pooled estimate of the association between UPF consumption and all-cause mortality, are all themselves observational.  Again there’s nothing wrong with that – it’s pretty difficult, indeed impossible in most cases, to do a study linking diet to long-term health outcomes that is not observational.  Such a study would have to allocate different individuals to different diets, and somehow ensure that they stuck to these diets for many years.  So instead, researchers record what people eat, and then follow them up for a long time and record if and when they die.

    “This all means that it’s impossible, for any one study like that, to be sure whether differences in mortality between people who consume different UPF amounts are actually caused by differences in their UPF consumption.  There are bound to be many other differences between groups who consume different UPF amounts, in terms of other details of their diet, their lifestyle, their economic position, their sex and age, and so on.  These differences might be, in part or in whole, the reason for the differences in the risk of early death.  In other words, each individual study can find a correlation, an association, but can’t say for sure whether the association between UPF consumption and mortality is one of cause and effect.  It might be, or it might not.

    “The researchers in each of the studies reviewed in this new paper obviously are aware of this, and they all made statistical adjustments to allow for differences in other factors (though in different ways in different studies).  But that doesn’t make the problem disappear – you still can’t be sure from any study of this kind exactly what’s causing what.

    “The fact that the new paper puts together data from seven different observational studies does again help somewhat with the issue of what’s causing what, but it can’t deal with it entirely.  There have been many criticisms of interpretation of observational studies involving UPFs and health outcomes, some of them on the basis that UPFs are defined in rather different ways by different writers, or on the grounds that the mechanisms by which UPFs might actually cause ill health haven’t been established clearly enough.

    “I’m certainly not saying that there is no association between UPF consumption and ill health – just that it’s still far from clear whether consumption of just any UPF at all is bad for health, or of what aspect of UPFs might be involved.

    “Then there are particular aspects of this new study that make the interpretation more complicated than it would be for other observational studies of UPFs and health.

    “The authors begin by estimating the nature of the association between the consumption of UPFs and the risk of premature death.  That is, they aren’t just trying to see whether high levels of UPF consumption are correlated with higher mortality.  They want to know something more precise – exactly how much does the risk of dying increase, for every additional 10 per cent of a person’s calorie intake that comes from UPFs.  (Again, no assumption here that the increase in risk is all caused by UPFs.)  That sounds fine, but it involves assuming a particular mathematical form for the association (in the light of the data).

    “After that, the authors use the estimate of that association between UPF consumption and risk of early death to calculate estimates of the population fraction of premature deaths (ages 30-69) attributable to UPF consumption, for 8 different countries including the UK.  They use that to calculate estimates of the number of additional deaths in each of the 8 countries attributable to UPF consumption, and some of those numbers look pretty large.

    “This is done by taking data on the number of people in different groups (defined by age and sex) in each country.  This is then used to calculate how many would be expected to die at current levels of UPF consumption (using data from the estimate of the association between UPF consumption and premature death in all the studies that were put together in the first part of the work, so not just for the UK for example).  Finally this is compared with the number that would be expected to die in a theoretical population where nobody consumes (or ever consumed) UPFs.  No such population exists, not in a whole country, so this calculation has to be based on a statistical model.  Then the deaths attributable to UPF consumption is the difference between these two expected numbers of deaths.

    “What this sounds like, for the UK in 2018-19 for example, is that there would have been almost 18,000 fewer deaths of people aged between 30 and 69, if nobody in the country had consumed any UPFs (ever). However, that’s very far from the whole story, for a lot of reasons.

    “First, it doesn’t mean that, because the studies involved are observational, and as the authors of the new paper rightly point out, there could be factors that could not be adjusted for in the original studies, that are involved in causes of early death.  That’s why it’s called a population attributable fraction, rather than something even more definite, like population fraction caused by UPFs.  Technically, it can’t mean that we know we could save those lives just by changing UPF consumption.

    “But it’s deeper than that.  There isn’t a whole population in the UK or in the other seven countries in the study, where nobody ever consumed any UPFs.  So the comparison is being made between an estimate for current UPF consumption levels and an estimate for a theoretical population that can’t exist.  Even if somehow all UPFs were banned today, it would take many decades before there was a population where nobody had ever consumed UPFs.

    “And even if somehow we did get to that position, well, people have to eat something, and if they aren’t getting their calories from UPFs, they would need to get them from something else.  They might well not get them all in the same way that people who consume very few UPFs do today.  We just can’t tell.

    “So it’s not the case that we could save 18,000 premature deaths annually in the UK by taking action to reduce UPF consumption.  This doesn’t mean that taking such actions wouldn’t reduce early deaths – just that we can’t tell how much the reduction might be, or when it would occur, or how much longer the individuals concerned might have lived – not from the calculations in this paper.

    “I have some other concerns.

    “Several of the authors of the new paper collaborated on a previous paper, published in 2023 (reference 17 in the new paper, which is the reference given for the model used in the new paper for estimates of attributable deaths).  The 2023 paper uses similar methodology to make an estimate of the premature deaths attributable to UPFs in Brazil in 2019.  This uses similar data on the association between UPF consumption and premature mortality, from a systematic review and meta-analysis, to what’s used in the new paper, except that there are three additional studies reviewed in the new paper.  The estimate is only for Brazil, and is 57,000 deaths in a year.  The estimate for Brazil in the new paper is just over 25,000 deaths in a year.

    “The big difference between the 2023 and the 2025 estimates for Brazil seems to be very largely because of a different assumption made in the two papers about the mathematical form of the association between UPF consumption and death risk.  (In the jargon, they use a log-linear model in the 2023 paper but a linear model in the 2025 paper.)  The new estimate is based on more data from more countries – but the big difference does emphasise the importance of mathematical modelling assumptions.  Data can throw light on what assumptions are appropriate, but don’t tie things down very firmly at all in a situation like this.

    “Finally, the systematic review and meta-analysis in the new paper is missing some of the technical details that one normally sees in this kind of work.  The paper is very unclear on how the researchers chose the studies they included in their review, which after all drives all the estimates of attributable deaths.  The authors write that studies were selected ‘on the basis of recently published systematic reviews’.  That’s not normally the way it’s done, and in any case three of the included studies were not mentioned in the systematic reviews that are referred to in the new paper.  I don’t know where the researchers got them.  They may well be perfectly respectable studies – I haven’t had time to look at them – but really the authors of the new paper should have been much clearer about what they were doing, if we are to be confident about their conclusions.  Also it’s usual in a systematic review to give some assessment of the quality of the research studies that were included, and that just isn’t done here.  None of this increases trust in how the work was done.”

    Dr Nerys Astbury, Associate Professor – Diet & Obesity, Nuffield Department of Primary Health Care Sciences, University of Oxford, said:

    “Here Nilson and colleagues report findings from a study reporting associations between consumption of Ultra Processed Foods (UPF), defined by the NOVA classification system, and premature mortality.

    “This study combines evidence on dietary intake of UPF from Columbia, Brazil, Australia, Canda, United Kingdom and USA and reports that for each 10% increase in proportion of UPF in the diet there was a 3% increase in all-cause mortality.  The authors then used a mathematical formula to estimate the population attributable fraction, which is an estimate of the number of deaths which could be prevented if the exposure (consumption of UPF) was eliminated.  It is important to note this does not mean that these deaths were caused by UPF consumption.  The methods of this study simply cannot determine this.

    “It’s been established for some time including in the Global Burden of Disease Consortium that consuming diets higher in energy, fat and sugar can have detrimental effects on health, including premature mortality.  This study adds to the body of evidence on the association between UPF and ill health and disease.  However, many UPF tend to be high in these nutrients, and studies to date have been unable to determine with certainty whether the effects of UPF are independent of the already established effects of diets high in foods which are energy dense and contain large amounts of fat and sugar.

    “The authors of the study conclude that advice to reduce UPF consumption should be included in national dietary guideline recommendations and in public policies.  However, rushing to add recommendations on UPF to these recommendations is not warranted based on this study in my opinion.  Many national dietary guidelines and recommendations already advise the reduction of consumption of energy dense high-fat high-sugar foods, which typically fall into the UPF group.  Adding additional recommendations based on UPF could cause consumer confusion – some foods may be considered unhealthy by nutrient standards, but not so by NOVA classification (and vice versa).

    “This study and other similar studies that have explored the association between UPF and diet related disease, have used the NOVA classification system invented by Dr Carlos Monteiro (an author on this paper).  In my view the NOVA system which defines foods according to different levels of food processing has many limitations, including arbitrary definitions and overly broad food categories, the over-emphasis of food ingredients opposed to the processing per se and the difficult practical application of the system in accurately classifying foods.  This is especially notable when attempting to classify foods from dietary data collected in large cohort studies, as in this study.

    “More research is needed to ascertain a causal link between UPF and disease and to establish the mechanisms involved.”

    Dr Stephen Burgess, statistician in the MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, said:

    “This study assesses observational associations rather than interventions, and so it is not able to make reliable causal claims.  That is to say, it shows that individuals who consume higher levels of ultraprocessed foods have greater risk of premature mortality, rather than showing that increasing your consumption of ultraprocessed foods would increase your mortality risk.  However, the similarity of findings across populations is notable, as consistent associations were seen in a variety of contexts, including those where high consumption of ultraprocessed foods is a sign of relative wealth and those where it is a sign of relative deprivation.  This type of research cannot prove that consumption of ultraprocessed foods is harmful, but it does provide evidence linking consumption with poorer health outcomes.  It is possible that the true causal risk factor is not ultraprocessed foods, but a related risk factor such as better physical fitness – and ultraprocessed foods is simply an innocent bystander.  But, when we see these associations replicated across many countries and cultures, it raises suspicion that ultraprocessed foods may be more than a bystander.”

    ‘Premature Mortality Attributable to Ultraprocessed Food Consumption in 8 Countries’ by Eduardo A.F. Nilson et al. was published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine at 05:05 UK time on Monday 28 April 2025. 

    DOI: 10.1016/j.amepre.2025.02.018

    Declared interests

    Prof Nita Forouhi: “No conflicts of interest to declare.”

    Prof Kevin McConway: “Previously a Trustee of the SMC and a member of its Advisory Committee.”

    Dr Nerys Astbury: “No conflicts.”

    Dr Stephen Burgess: “No relevant conflict of interest to declare.”

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Vancouver SUV attack exposes crowd management falldowns and casts a pall on Canada’s election

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ali Asgary, Professor, Disaster & Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies & Director, CIFAL York, York University, Canada

    A car attack at a Filipino street festival in Vancouver just two days before Canada’s federal election has killed at least 11 people and injured many more.

    The carnage along a street lined with food trucks took place shortly after one of the men vying to become Canada’s prime minister — New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh — attended the event. A shell-shocked Singh observed a moment of silence in Penticton, B.C., during another campaign stop the next day.

    A 30-year-old Vancouver resident has been arrested, but the motivation behind the attack is unknown.

    Vancouver police say the suspect has mental health issues and was known to police prior to the attack. Police also told a news conference there was no indication there was a need for extra policing at the festival, deeming it to have a “low threat level.”

    What goes into making that calculation, and is a public event ever truly low-risk?

    Vancouver police hold a news conference on the SUV attack. (CTV News)

    Difficulties of crowd management

    The Vancouver SUV attack is now classified as a crowd-related or mass gathering type of disaster. There have been cases of public vehicle-ramming attacks in Canada in the past, in particular the 2018 Toronto van attack that left 10 people dead.

    While it’s not yet known whether the Vancouver attack was targeted, there were clearly weaknesses in crowd management for such a large gathering. These types of attacks have been on the increase over the past decade and are now considered one of the prime threats to mass gatherings in public spaces and streets.

    Unfortunately, many mass gathering events do not allocate either sufficient resources or time for crowd management procedures, particularly those related to risk and emergency management.

    Organizing mass gathering events in public spaces should factor in different threats, including the potential for car ramming, and implement effective mitigation and preparedness measures.

    ‘Soft targets’

    Many public spaces where these events take place are vulnerable to car attacks. Evidence shows that mass gatherings are soft targets, meaning they’re easily accessible to large numbers of people and have limited security, protective and warning measures in place. Extreme precautions are needed to protect the public from such attacks so that they don’t become mass casualty events.

    Those in attendance should be aware that public spaces generally lack physical barriers, or the proper distribution of them, to resist car or vehicle attacks.

    While public awareness programs exist for other hazards such as flooding, earthquakes and extreme weather events, it’s now clear that such awareness and education are needed for mass public gatherings too.

    Police should be aware that relying on limited surveillance may not be sufficient to identify such threats at the scene. Vehicle access and traffic control should be in place throughout such events. Lack of warning systems to quickly inform the crowd about an ongoing attack further increases the impacts of vehicular attacks.

    Much of the focus on these types of events has been on the motivations of the attackers. Since a considerable number of vehicle-ramming attacks have been attributed to terrorism, communities or events with the perception of lower terrorism threats may not pay close enough attention to this type of threat.



    Read more:
    Toronto’s most recent car attack was a targeted crime, not a mass attack

    Impact on the election?

    Canadians aren’t likely to get many more details about the Vancouver attack until after voting day on Monday. Could the tragedy have an impact on the outcome of the federal election?

    Past and recent studies have drawn different conclusions about the impact of disasters on election results.

    According to what’s known as retrospective voting theory, voters judge governments on how they manage disasters, particularly highly publicized, tragic events, when casting their ballots. Voters can evaluate governments based on their handling of the disaster and the amount of effort they have put into minimizing risk.

    Some studies have found that local governments were rewarded after disaster events, including Calgary after the 2013 floods, several Italian municipal governments after earthquakes, local government officials in Brazil amid municipal drought declarations and civic elections in Japan after earthquakes, tsunamis and floods.



    Read more:
    Why Canada needs to dramatically update how it prepares for and manages emergencies

    Voters can and do punish or reward governments and elected politicians based on the effects of recent disasters on them and governments’ responses to them.

    But given how soon the Canadian election is being held after the disaster occurred — and the record number of voters who have already cast their ballots in advance polls — this tragedy isn’t likely to have a substantial impact.

    Hopefully, however, it will have an influence on how organizers, police and other authorities manage public crowds and events at a time when vehicle-ramming attacks are becoming a recurrent threat. Those elected this election should prioritize efforts to ensure communities can have safer mass gathering events.

    Ali Asgary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Vancouver SUV attack exposes crowd management falldowns and casts a pall on Canada’s election – https://theconversation.com/vancouver-suv-attack-exposes-crowd-management-falldowns-and-casts-a-pall-on-canadas-election-255395

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Vancouver SUV attack exposes crowd management falldowns and casts a pall on Canada’s election

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ali Asgary, Professor, Disaster & Emergency Management, Faculty of Liberal Arts & Professional Studies & Director, CIFAL York, York University, Canada

    A car attack at a Filipino street festival in Vancouver just two days before Canada’s federal election has killed at least 11 people and injured many more.

    The carnage along a street lined with food trucks took place shortly after one of the men vying to become Canada’s prime minister — New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh — attended the event. A shell-shocked Singh observed a moment of silence in Penticton, B.C., during another campaign stop the next day.

    A 30-year-old Vancouver resident has been arrested, but the motivation behind the attack is unknown.

    Vancouver police say the suspect has mental health issues and was known to police prior to the attack. Police also told a news conference there was no indication there was a need for extra policing at the festival, deeming it to have a “low threat level.”

    What goes into making that calculation, and is a public event ever truly low-risk?

    Vancouver police hold a news conference on the SUV attack. (CTV News)

    Difficulties of crowd management

    The Vancouver SUV attack is now classified as a crowd-related or mass gathering type of disaster. There have been cases of public vehicle-ramming attacks in Canada in the past, in particular the 2018 Toronto van attack that left 10 people dead.

    While it’s not yet known whether the Vancouver attack was targeted, there were clearly weaknesses in crowd management for such a large gathering. These types of attacks have been on the increase over the past decade and are now considered one of the prime threats to mass gatherings in public spaces and streets.

    Unfortunately, many mass gathering events do not allocate either sufficient resources or time for crowd management procedures, particularly those related to risk and emergency management.

    Organizing mass gathering events in public spaces should factor in different threats, including the potential for car ramming, and implement effective mitigation and preparedness measures.

    ‘Soft targets’

    Many public spaces where these events take place are vulnerable to car attacks. Evidence shows that mass gatherings are soft targets, meaning they’re easily accessible to large numbers of people and have limited security, protective and warning measures in place. Extreme precautions are needed to protect the public from such attacks so that they don’t become mass casualty events.

    Those in attendance should be aware that public spaces generally lack physical barriers, or the proper distribution of them, to resist car or vehicle attacks.

    While public awareness programs exist for other hazards such as flooding, earthquakes and extreme weather events, it’s now clear that such awareness and education are needed for mass public gatherings too.

    Police should be aware that relying on limited surveillance may not be sufficient to identify such threats at the scene. Vehicle access and traffic control should be in place throughout such events. Lack of warning systems to quickly inform the crowd about an ongoing attack further increases the impacts of vehicular attacks.

    Much of the focus on these types of events has been on the motivations of the attackers. Since a considerable number of vehicle-ramming attacks have been attributed to terrorism, communities or events with the perception of lower terrorism threats may not pay close enough attention to this type of threat.



    Read more:
    Toronto’s most recent car attack was a targeted crime, not a mass attack

    Impact on the election?

    Canadians aren’t likely to get many more details about the Vancouver attack until after voting day on Monday. Could the tragedy have an impact on the outcome of the federal election?

    Past and recent studies have drawn different conclusions about the impact of disasters on election results.

    According to what’s known as retrospective voting theory, voters judge governments on how they manage disasters, particularly highly publicized, tragic events, when casting their ballots. Voters can evaluate governments based on their handling of the disaster and the amount of effort they have put into minimizing risk.

    Some studies have found that local governments were rewarded after disaster events, including Calgary after the 2013 floods, several Italian municipal governments after earthquakes, local government officials in Brazil amid municipal drought declarations and civic elections in Japan after earthquakes, tsunamis and floods.



    Read more:
    Why Canada needs to dramatically update how it prepares for and manages emergencies

    Voters can and do punish or reward governments and elected politicians based on the effects of recent disasters on them and governments’ responses to them.

    But given how soon the Canadian election is being held after the disaster occurred — and the record number of voters who have already cast their ballots in advance polls — this tragedy isn’t likely to have a substantial impact.

    Hopefully, however, it will have an influence on how organizers, police and other authorities manage public crowds and events at a time when vehicle-ramming attacks are becoming a recurrent threat. Those elected this election should prioritize efforts to ensure communities can have safer mass gathering events.

    Ali Asgary does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Vancouver SUV attack exposes crowd management falldowns and casts a pall on Canada’s election – https://theconversation.com/vancouver-suv-attack-exposes-crowd-management-falldowns-and-casts-a-pall-on-canadas-election-255395

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Energy Sector – NZ energy professional selected for World Energy Council delegation

    Source: BusinessNZ

    New Zealand energy professional Esther Tomkinson has been selected to join the World Energy Council’s Future Energy Leaders Programme.
    Esther Tomkinson is a Sustainability and Strategy Analyst at Mercury Energy and Co-Chair of the Young Energy Professionals Network of the BusinessNZ Energy Council.
    The Future Energy Leaders Programme is a global network of young energy professionals who contribute to national, regional, and international activities aimed at solving the world’s most pressing energy and sustainability challenges.
    Tina Schirr Executive Director of the BusinessNZ Energy Council said, “We are incredibly proud of Esther Tomkinson’s selection for the Future Energy Leaders Programme. Her dedication to sustainability and the local Future Energy Leaders Programme – YEPN – will be extremely valuable to the global and New Zealand energy community. This recognition also highlights the exceptional talent we have in New Zealand’s energy sector.”
    The first opportunity to convene with future energy leaders from across the globe will be at the World Energy Week in Panama from 6-9 October 2025, followed by the World Energy Congress in Saudi Arabia from 26-29 October 2026.
    Schirr says, “This year, 25 young energy professionals from 21 countries will join the Future Energy Leaders Programme, including Esther Tomkinson, the only New Zealand delegate.
    “At the same time, we farewell two outstanding Kiwis from the Future Energy Leaders Programme, Emily Hilton, the HSEQ Manager at Hiringa Energy, and Mark Todoroff, Business Development Director at Yes Energy.”
    The BusinessNZ Network including BusinessNZ, EMA, Business Central, Business Canterbury and Business South, represents and provides services to thousands of businesses, small and large, throughout New Zealand.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Used EV batteries could power vehicles, houses or even towns – if their manufacturers share vital data

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Daryoush Habibi, Professor and Head, Centre for Green and Smart Energy Systems, Edith Cowan University

    EV batteries are made of hundreds of smaller cells. IM Imagery/Shutterstock

    Around the world, more and more electric vehicles are hitting the road. Last year, more than 17 million battery-electric and hybrid vehicles were sold. Early forecasts suggest this year’s figure might reach 20 million. Nearly 20% of all cars sold today are electric.

    But as more motorists go electric, it creates a new challenge – what to do with the giant batteries when they reach the end of their lives. That’s 12 to 15 years on average, though real-world data suggests it may be up to 40% longer. The average EV battery weighs about 450 kilograms.

    By 2030, around 30,000 tonnes of EV batteries are expected to need disposal or recycling in Australia. By 2040, the figure is projected to be 360,000 tonnes and 1.6 million tonnes by 2050.

    Is this a problem? Not necessarily. When a battery reaches the end of its life in a vehicle, it’s still got plenty of juice. Together, they could power smaller vehicles, houses or, when daisy-chained, even whole towns.

    For this to work, though, we need better information. How healthy are these batteries? What are they made of? Have they ever been in an accident? At present, answers to these questions are hard to come by. That has to change.

    Gauging the health and reliability of a used EV battery is harder than it should be.
    Fahroni/Shutterstock

    Huge potential, challenging reality

    Old EV batteries have huge potential. But it’s not going to be easy to realise this.

    That’s because it’s hard to get accurate data on battery performance, how fast it’s degrading and the battery’s current state of health – how much capacity it has now versus how much it had when new.

    Unfortunately, vehicle manufacturers often make it difficult to get access to this crucial information. And once a battery pack is removed, we can’t get access to its specific data.

    This comes with real risks. If a battery has a fault or has been severely degraded, it could catch fire when opened or if used for an unsuitable role. Without data, recyclers are flying blind.

    Reusing EV batteries will only be economically viable if there’s sufficient confidence in estimates of remaining capacity and performance.

    Without solid data, investors and companies may hesitate to engage in the repurposing market due to the financial risks involved.

    Extracting minerals from a battery

    EV batteries are full of critical minerals such as nickel, cobalt, lithium and manganese. Nearly everything in an EV battery can be recycled – up to 95%.

    Here, too, it’s not as easy as it should be. Manufacturers design batteries focusing on performance and safety with recyclability often an afterthought.

    Battery packs are often sealed shut for safety, making it difficult to disassemble their thousands of individual cells. Dismantling these type of EV batteries is extremely labour-intensive and time-consuming. Some will have to be crushed and the minerals extracted afterwards.

    EV batteries have widely differing chemistries, such as lithium iron phosphate and nickel manganese cobalt. But this vital information is often not included on the label.

    EV batteries require significant quantities of critical minerals. Pictured: lithium salt evaporation ponds in Argentina.
    Freedom_wanted/Shutterstock

    Better ways of assessing battery health

    Used EV batteries fall into three groups based on their state of health:

    High (80% or more of original capacity): These batteries can be refurbished for reuse in similar applications, such as electric cars, mopeds, bicycles and golf carts. Some can be resized to suit smaller vehicles.

    Medium (60-80%): These batteries can be repurposed for entirely different applications, such as stationary power storage or uninterruptible power supplies.

    Low (below 60%): These batteries undergo shredding and refining processes to recover valuable minerals which can be used to make new batteries.

    Researchers have recently succeeded in estimating the health of used EV batteries even without access to the battery’s data. But access to usage and performance data would still give better estimates.

    What’s at stake?

    An EV battery is a remarkable thing. But they rely on long supply chains and contain critical minerals, and their manufacture can cause pollution and carbon emissions.

    Ideally, an EV battery would be exhausted before we recycle it. Repurposing these batteries will help reduce how many new batteries are needed.

    If old batteries are stockpiled or improperly discarded, it leads to fire risk and potential contamination of soil and water.

    Right now, it’s hard for companies and individuals to access each battery’s performance data. This means it’s much harder and more expensive to assess its health and remaining useful life. As a result, more batteries are being discarded or sent for recycling too early.

    Recycling EV batteries is a well-defined process. But it’s energy-intensive and requires significant chemical treatments.

    What needs to change?

    At present, many battery manufacturers are wary of sharing battery performance data, due to concerns over intellectual property and other legal issues. This will have to change if society is to get the fullest use out of these complex energy storage devices. But these changes are unlikely to come from industry.

    In 2021, California introduced laws requiring manufacturers to give recyclers access to data and battery state of health. Likewise, the European Union will require all EV batteries to come with a digital passport from January 2027, giving access to data on the battery’s health, chemistry and records of potentially harmful events such as accidents or charging at extreme temperatures.

    Australia should follow suit – before we have a mountain of EV batteries and no way to reuse them.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Used EV batteries could power vehicles, houses or even towns – if their manufacturers share vital data – https://theconversation.com/used-ev-batteries-could-power-vehicles-houses-or-even-towns-if-their-manufacturers-share-vital-data-248677

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Australia once had ‘immigration amnesties’ to grant legal status to undocumented people. Could we again?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sara Dehm, Senior Lecturer, International Migration and Refugee Law, University of Technology Sydney

    The year is 1972. The Whitlam Labor government has just been swept into power and major changes to Australia’s immigration system are underway. Many people remember this time for the formal end of the racist White Australia Policy.

    A lesser-known legacy of this period was the introduction of Australia’s first immigration amnesty. This amnesty, implemented later in 1974 with bilateral support, provided humane pathways to permanency or citizenship for undocumented people in Australia.

    In other words, people living without lawful immigration status could “legalise” their status without risk of punishment or deportation.

    More immigration amnesties were promised during later election campaigns and then implemented in 1976 and 1980.

    These amnesties occurred under successive Labor and Liberal federal governments, and each enjoyed enthusiastic bipartisan support.

    So, how did these amnesties work – and could they happen again?

    Started by Whitlam

    Australia’s first amnesty was announced in January 1974, as part of the Whitlam government’s official policy of multiculturalism.

    Its purpose was to grant permanency to people who had been living in Australia “illegally” and at risk of labour exploitation.

    The amnesty was open for five months, from late January until the end of June 1974.

    The main eligibility criteria was that the person:

    • had to have been living in Australia for three years or more and
    • be of “good character”.

    This program had only a modest uptake. However, it set the path for more successful initiatives in the future.

    Continued by Fraser

    During the 1975 election campaign, then caretaker Prime Minister Malcolm Fraser promised another amnesty if his government won the election.

    He committed to “do everything we can” to allow undocumented people

    to stay here and make Australia their permanent home.

    After the election, Fraser’s Liberal government implemented a broad amnesty for “overstayed visitors” in January 1976.

    Departmental figures show 8,614 people sought legal status in the amnesty period.

    The vast majority (63%) lived in New South Wales. The main nationalities of these applicants were:

    • Greek (1,283 applicants)
    • UK (911 applicants)
    • Indonesian (748 applicants)
    • Chinese (643 applicants).

    Australia’s third broad immigration amnesty came in 1980, again as a result of a bipartisan election promise.

    Immigration Minister Ian Macphee announced a six-month Regularisation of Status Program. It aimed, he said, to deal “humanely with the problem of illegal immigration” while also seeking to curb such unauthorised migration in the future.

    Not a trick

    Many migrants worried these amnesties were a government “trick” to facilitate deportations.

    In an attempt to reassure the public, Prime Minister Fraser insisted in 1980 that the program was

    not a trap to lure people into the open so that they can be seized, jailed and deported.

    By the end of the amnesty period in December 1980, it was reported that more than 11,000 applications had been received. This covered more than 14,000 people.

    What made the past amnesties successful?

    Our research looked at what motivated the amnesties and how they worked.

    We found several key factors that drove success, including the need for:

    • simple and inclusive criteria for eligibility
    • a clear application process
    • a careful campaign for promotion, to build trust with migrant communities, and
    • durable outcomes that offer of clear pathways to citizenship.

    The 1980 amnesty program involved an effective campaign to publicise successful cases.

    A 21-year-old Greek waitress working in her aunt’s Goulburn restaurant was widely publicised as the first person to be granted immigration amnesty status in July 1980. A Uruguayan refugee was profiled as the 1,000th.

    The Department of Immigration also translated amnesty information into 48 languages, publicised in non-English language press and radio.

    Of the three amnesties, the 1974 one was the least successful, due to:

    • stringent eligibility criteria
    • limited media publicity, and
    • no official outreach strategy to build trust with migrant communities.

    Precarious lives

    Recent calls for an immigration amnesty has focused on two groups in Australia:

    The Department of Home Affairs estimates more than 70,000 people live in Australia today without immigration status.

    Undocumented workers are highly vulnerable to exploitation and deportation.

    Yet, these workers often fulfil crucial labour market shortages. Many have been living in Australia for years or even decades.

    Asylum seekers and refugees on temporary or no visas cannot return “home” for fear of persecution. They risk lapsing into irregular status with no rights or entitlements.

    Lessons from past amnesties

    Amnesties are a humane and cost-effective response to unauthorised migration.

    Australia currently spends millions, if not billions of dollars, on the detention and deportation of people without visas.

    In the lead up to both the 1976 and 1980 amnesties, successive governments acknowledged such a “detection and deportation” approach would be unnecessarily costly. It would require “increased resources in manpower”.

    An amnesty, instead, was in the words of then Immigration Minister Macphee a chance to:

    clean the slate, to acknowledge that no matter how people got here they are part of the community.

    These historical precedents show Australia’s migration system and politicians could, if they wanted, accommodate initiatives and reforms that fundamentally value migrants and prioritise migrant access to permanency.

    Our research also shows Australian election campaigns can be opportunities for advancing policies that embrace the reality of immigration and offer hope, not fear.

    Sara Dehm receives funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a co-convenor of the interdisciplinary academic network, Academics for Refugees.

    Anthea Vogl receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the Commonwealth Departure of Health and Aged Care. She is a Board Member of the Forcibly Displaced People Network and co-convenor of the interdisciplinary academic network, Academics for Refugees.

    – ref. Australia once had ‘immigration amnesties’ to grant legal status to undocumented people. Could we again? – https://theconversation.com/australia-once-had-immigration-amnesties-to-grant-legal-status-to-undocumented-people-could-we-again-252294

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Rep. Jim Costa: Lance Cpl. Marcelino Gamino was a Proud Son and Hero of Fresno

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Jim Costa Representing 16th District of California

    FRESNO, Calif. – Congressman Jim Costa (CA-21) released the following statement after the death of a Marine from Fresno who was identified as one of the victims in a fatal crash during a convoy in New Mexico.
    “We mourn the tragic loss of Lance Corporal Marcelino M. Gamino, a proud son of Fresno who gave his life in service to our nation. At just 28, he served with honor in the 1st Combat Engineer Battalion, 1st Marine Division. Our hearts are with his family, friends, and fellow Marines as they grieve this profound loss. His memory will endure as a testament to the strength, service, and spirit of the San Joaquin Valley,”said Congressman Costa.
    ###

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Rep. Jim Costa Bill Draws the Line: Constitution gives Authority to Congress to Set Trade Policy — Not the President

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congressman Jim Costa Representing 16th District of California

    FRESNO, Calif. – Congressman Jim Costa (CA-21) is leading the charge to rein in presidential overreach on trade by cosponsoring and actively pushing H.R. 407 –  Prevent Tariff Abuse Act, legislation to block the President of the United States from using national emergencies as a loophole to impose tariffs without Congressional approval. “Tariffs are a tax on American producers and consumers — plain and simple. In the San Joaquin Valley, where folks are already stretched thin by high costs, the last thing we need is a hidden tax making gas and groceries even more expensive. The Constitution gives Congress, not the President, the power to set trade policy. This bill is about restoring that authority and standing up for the people who are paying the price,” said Congressman Costa. BACKGROUNDCalifornia is the nation’s leading agricultural state, supplying roughly one-third of fresh fruit and vegetables, while exporting more than $23.6 billion in agricultural goods annually. The San Joaquin Valley is at the heart of this export economy, producing almonds, dairy, citrus, grapes, and dozens of other crops that are shipped around the world. The American Farm Bureau estimates that new retaliatory tariffs from Canada, Mexico, and China alone could impact nearly $30 billion in agricultural exports. The U.S. Department of Agriculture found that California lost roughly $683 million in crop revenue due to President Trump’s 2018 tariffs. This significantly impacted processed/fresh fruits ($374 million), tree nuts ($199 million), and dairy products ($68 million), all of which are major commodities grown in Congressman Costa’s District and the San Joaquin Valley. The Yale Budget Labestimates that Trump’s tariffs will raise costs for American consumers by $3,400 to $4,200 a year. Tariffs imposed by President Trump in 2018 led to higher prices across the country for consumer goods, like washing machines and solar panels, and for intermediate goods, like aluminum and steel. The Prevent Tariff Abuse Act would stop the President from bypassing Congress to impose tariffs or quotas that raise costs on families. Current law allows the President to declare a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), originally meant to target hostile foreign threats with financial sanctions. However, it was never meant to let a President declare an “economic emergency” and impose tariffs on our allies without congressional approval.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI: Risk Strategies acquires GMC Advisors, LLC

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    BOSTON, April 27, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Risk Strategies, a leading North American specialty insurance brokerage, risk management and consulting firm, announced today that it has acquired GMC Advisors, LLC., based in Houston. Terms of the deal were not disclosed.

    Headed by owner Greg Chubon, GMC Advisors is a specialist in commercial lines insurance products, with a focus on the construction and manufacturing industries, as well as companies in the energy sector. Founded in 2003, the firm has built a record of consistent growth propelled by specialty knowledge and a focus on helping middle-market companies in target industries.

    “It is great to add such deep industry expertise to our West Region as we continue to build out our national capabilities in key industries,” said Pat Roth, West Region Leader, Risk Strategies. “Our firm has built its success on the strength of its people and their specialty knowledge. Greg and his team bring additional expertise to Risk Strategies, and we’re excited to have them help drive our growth and meet evolving client needs.”

    In addition to construction and manufacturing, GMC Advisors counts clients among engineering, oil and gas, and petrochemical-related firms in the region. Chubon is a 37-year industry veteran who, prior to founding GMC Advisors, held a number of positions for regional and national brokerages including new business development.

    “Joining Risk Strategies is a fantastic opportunity to scale our specialty focus while retaining our high-touch client service philosophy,” said Chubon, Founder, GMC Advisors. “I’m excited to be able to offer new and expanded capabilities to our clients, as well as new career path opportunities for our people.”

    The acquisition of GMC Advisors adds to the broader specialty expertise cultivated by Risk Strategies in its West Region over the preceding decade. In 2016, for instance, Risk Strategies acquired Dallas-based McLaughlin Brunson Insurance Agency, a leading specialist in architects and engineers’ professional liability insurance. In 2020, it acquired Colorado-based Transport Risk Management, a leading specialist in aviation insurance. The 2021 acquisition of Fournier Group of Portland, Oregon brought expertise in the restaurant and hospitality industries, as well as aviation. Bringing in New Mexico-based Burke Insurance Group in 2022 brought deep expertise in construction surety bonds.

    About Risk Strategies

    Risk Strategies, part of Accession Risk Management Group, is a North American specialty brokerage firm offering comprehensive risk management services, property and casualty insurance and reinsurance placement, employee benefits, private client services, consulting services, and financial & wealth solutions. The 9th largest U.S. privately held broker, we advise businesses and personal clients, have access to all major insurance markets, and 30+ specialty industry and product line practices and experts in 200+ offices – Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Grand Cayman, Kansas City, Los Angeles, Miami, Montreal, Nashville, New York City, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Toronto, and Washington, DC. RiskStrategies.com

    Media Contact 
    Alana Bannan
    Senior Account Executive 
    (720) 400-8025
    Rsc@matternow.com

    The MIL Network –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Trump’s war on the media: 10 numbers from US President’s first 100 days

    Reporters Without Borders

    Donald Trump campaigned for the White House by unleashing a nearly endless barrage of insults against journalists and news outlets.

    He repeatedly threatened to weaponise the federal government against media professionals whom he considers his enemies.

    In his first 100 days in office, President Trump has already shown that he was not bluffing.

    “The day-to-day chaos of the American political news cycle can make it hard to fully take stock of the seismic shifts that are happening,” said Clayton Weimers, executive director of RSF North America.

    “But when you step back and look at the whole picture, the pattern of blows to press freedom is quite clear.

    “RSF refuses to accept this massive attack on press freedom as the new normal. We will continue to call out these assaults against the press and use every means at our disposal to fight back against them.

    “We urge every American who values press freedom to do the same.”

    Here is the Trump administration’s war on the press by the numbers: *

    • 427 million – Weekly worldwide audience of the USAGM news outlets silenced by Trump

    In an effort to eliminate the US Agency for Global Media (USAGM) by cutting grants to outlets funded by the federal agency and placing their reporters on leave, the government has left millions around the world without vital sources of reliable information.

    This leaves room for authoritarian regimes, like Russia and China, to spread their propaganda unchecked.

    However, RSF recently secured an interim injunction against the administration’s dismantling of the USAGM-funded broadcaster Voice of America,which also reinstates funding to the outlets  Radio Free Asia (RFA) and the Middle East Broadcasting Networks (MBN).

    • 8,000+ – US government web pages taken down

    Webpages from more than a dozen government sites were removed almost immediately after President Trump took office, leaving journalists and the public without critical information on health, crime, and more.

    • 3,500+ – Journalists and media workers at risk of losing their jobs thanks to Trump’s shutdown of the USAGM

    Journalists from VOA, the MBN, RFA, and Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty are at risk of losing their jobs as the Trump administration works to shut down the USAGM. Furthermore, at least 84 USAGM journalists based in the US on work visas now face deportation to countries where they risk prosecution and severe harassment.

    At least 15 journalists from RFA and eight from VOA originate from repressive states and are at serious risk of being arrested and potentially imprisoned if deported.

    • 180 – Public radio stations at risk of closing if public media funding is eliminated

    The Trump administration reportedly plans to ask Congress to cut $1.1 billion in allocated funds for the Corporation for Public Broadcasting, which supports National Public Radio (NPR) and the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS). These cuts will hit rural communities and stations in smaller media markets the hardest, where federal funding is most impactful.

    • 74 – Days the Associated Press (AP) has been banned from the White House

    On February 11, the White House began barring the Associated Press (AP) news agency from its events because of the news agency’s continued use of the term “Gulf of Mexico,” which President Trump prefers to call the “Gulf of America” — a blatant example of retaliation against the media.

    Despite a federal judge ruling the administration must reinstate the news agency’s access on April 9, the White House has continued to limit AP’s access.

    • 64 – Disparaging comments made by Trump against the media on Truth Social since inauguration

    In addition to regular, personal attacks against the media in press conferences and public speeches, Trump takes to his social media site nearly every day to insult, threaten, or intimidate journalists and media workers who report about him or his administration critically.

    • 13 – Individuals pardoned by President Trump after being convicted or charged for attacking journalists on January 6, 2021

    Trump pardoned over a dozen individuals charged with or convicted of violent crimes against journalists at the US Capitol during the January 6 insurrection.

    • 6 – Federal Communications Commission (FCC) inquiries into media companies

    Brendan Carr, co-author of the Project 2025 playbook and chair of the FCC, has wasted no time launching politically motivated investigations, explicit threats against media organisations, and implicit threats against their parent companies. These include inquiries into CBS, ABC parent company Disney, NBC parent company Comcast, public broadcasters NPR and PBS, and California television station KCBS.

    • 4 – Trump’s personal lawsuits against media organisations

    While Trump settled a lawsuit with ABC’s parent company Disney, he continues to sue CBS, The Des Moines Register, Gannett, and the Pulitzer Center over coverage he deemed biased.

    • $1.60 – Average annual amount each American pays for public media

    Donald Trump has threatened to eliminate federal funding for public broadcasting, framing the move as a cost-cutting measure.

    However, public media only costs each American about $1.60 each year, representing a tremendous bargain as it gives Americans access to a wealth of local, national, and lifesaving emergency programming.

    * Figures as of the date of publication, 24 April 2025. Pacific Media Watch collaborates with RSF.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: 11th BRICS Labour & Employment Ministers’ Meeting 2025 Adopts Declaration Under Brazilian Presidency

    Source: Government of India

    Posted On: 26 APR 2025 4:31PM by PIB Delhi

    Union Minister of State for Labour & Employment, Sushri Shobha Karandlaje, led the Indian delegation at the BRICS Labour & Employment Ministers’ Meeting held under Brazil’s Presidency in Brasília on 25th April 2025. The meeting, convened under the slogan “Strengthening the Cooperation of the Global South for More Inclusive and Sustainable Governance”, culminated in the adoption of a forward-looking declaration addressing two pivotal themes: “Artificial Intelligence (AI) and the Future of Work” and “The Impacts of Climate Change on the World of Work and a Just Transition”.

    Sushri Karandlaje highlighted India’s human-centric approach to technological transformation, aligning with Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi’s vision of “Technology for Empowerment, Not Exclusion”. She highlighted India’s National Strategy for AI, which prioritizes ethical adoption, workforce upskilling, and sectoral applications in agriculture, healthcare, and education. Initiatives like FutureSkills Prime and the Namo Drone Didi program exemplify India’s commitment to creating tech-enabled livelihoods, especially for rural women and youth. The National Career Service (NCS) platform, powered by AI, was showcased as a model for bridging skill gaps and connecting millions to employment opportunities.

    On climate action, India emphasized it’s just transition framework, ensuring green growth translates into equitable job creation. The Sector Skill Council for Green Jobs (SSCGJ) and Mission LiFE (Lifestyle for Environment) were highlighted as transformative initiatives driving skilling and sustainable practices. India’s achievement of reduction in GHG emissions (2020–2019) and its net-zero by 2070 pledge reinforced its climate leadership. Collaborative efforts with the ILO to protect workers’ rights during this transition were also emphasized.

    Key Outcomes of the BRICS Declaration

    The declaration commits BRICS nations to:

    1. Promote inclusive AI policies that balance innovation with worker protection.
    2. Advance social dialogue to ensure fair climate transitions.
    3. Strengthen South-South cooperation on labour governance, digital inclusion, and green job creation.

    India’s contributions were commended for aligning cutting-edge technological advancement with inclusive social welfare, reflecting Hon’ble Prime Minister’s mantra of “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas”. The meeting reaffirmed BRICS’ collective resolve to build a future where no worker is left behind in the face of AI-driven disruption or climate challenges.

    *****

    DT

    (Release ID: 2124543) Visitor Counter : 18

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: How to fight Trump’s cyber dystopia with community, self-determination, care and truth

    COMMENTARY: By Mandy Henk

    When the US Embassy knocked on my door in late 2024, I was both pleased and more than a little suspicious.

    I’d worked with them before, but the organisation where I did that work, Tohatoha, had closed its doors. My new project, Dark Times Academy, was specifically an attempt to pull myself out of the grant cycle, to explore ways of funding the work of counter-disinformation education without dependence on unreliable governments and philanthropic funders more concerned with their own objectives than the work I believed then — and still believe — is crucial to the future of human freedom.

    But despite my efforts to turn them away, they kept knocking, and Dark Times Academy certainly needed the money. I’m warning you all now: There is a sense in which everything I have to say about counter-disinformation comes down to conversations about how to fund the work.

    DARK TIMES ACADEMY

    There is nothing I would like more than to talk about literally anything other than funding this work. I don’t love money, but I do like eating, having a home, and being able to give my kids cash.

    I have also repeatedly found myself in roles where other people look to me for their livelihoods; a responsibility that I carry heavily and with more than a little clumsiness and reluctance.

    But if we are to talk about President Donald Trump and disinformation, we have to talk about money. As it is said, the love of money is the root of all evil. And the lack of it is the manifestation of that evil.

    Trump and his attack on all of us — on truth, on peace, on human freedom and dignity — is, at its core, an attack that uses money as a weapon. It is an attack rooted in greed and in avarice.

    In his world, money is power
    But in that greed lies his weakness. In his world, money is power. He and those who serve him and his fascist agenda cannot see beyond the world that money built. Their power comes in the form of control over that world and the people forced to live in it.

    Of course, money is just paper. It is digital bits in a database sitting on a server in a data centre relying on electricity and water taken from our earth. The ephemeral nature of their money speaks volumes about their lack of strength and their vulnerability to more powerful forces.

    They know this. Trump and all men like him know their weaknesses — and that’s why they use their money to gather power and control. When you have more money than you and your whānau can spend in several generations, you suddenly have a different kind of  relationship to money.

    It’s one where money itself — and the structures that allow money to be used for control of people and the material world — becomes your biggest vulnerability. If your power and identity are built entirely on the power of money, your commitment to preserving the power of money in the world becomes an all-consuming drive.

    Capitalism rests on many “logics” — commodification, individualism, eternal growth, the alienation of labour. Marx and others have tried this ground well already.

    In a sense, we are past the time when more analysis is useful to us. Rather, we have reached a point where action is becoming a practical necessity. After all, Trump isn’t going to stop with the media or with counter-disinformation organisations. He is ultimately coming for us all.

    What form that action must take is a complicated matter. But, first we must think about money and about how money works, because only through lessening the power of money can we hope to lessen the power of those who wield it as their primary weapon.

    Beliefs about poor people
    If you have been so unfortunate to be subject to engagement with anti-poverty programmes during the neoliberal era either as a client or a worker, you will know that one of the motivations used for denying direct cash aid to those in need of money is a belief on the part of government and policy experts that poor people will use their money in unwise ways, be it drugs or alcohol, or status purchases like sneakers or manicures.

    But over and over again, there’s another concern raised: cash benefits will be spent on others in the community, but outside of those targeted with the cash aid.

    You see this less now that ideas like a universal basic income (UBI) and direct cash transfers have taken hold of the policy and donor classes, but it is one of those rightwing concerns that turned out to be empirically accurate.

    Poor people are more generous with their money and all of their other resources as well. The stereotype of the stingy Scrooge is one based on a pretty solid mountain of evidence.

    The poor turn out to understand far better than the rich how to defeat the power that money gives those who hoard it — and that is community. The logic of money and capital can most effectively be defeated through the creation and strengthening of our community ties.

    Donald Trump and those who follow him revel in creating a world of atomised individuals focused on themselves; the kind of world where, rather than relying on each other, people depend on the market and the dollar to meet their material needs — dollars. of course, being the source of control and power for their class.

    Our ability to fund our work, feed our families, and keep a roof over our heads has not always been subject to the whims of capitalists and those with money to pay us. Around the world, the grand multicentury project known as colonialism has impoverished us all and created our dependency.

    Colonial projects and ‘enclosures’
    I cannot speak as a direct victim of the colonial project. Those are not my stories to tell. There are so many of you in this room who can speak to that with far more eloquence and direct experience than I. But the colonial project wasn’t only an overseas project for my ancestors.

    In England, the project was called “enclosure”.

    Enclosure is one of the core colonial logics. Enclosure takes resources (land in particular) that were held in common and managed collectively using traditional customs and hands them over to private control to be used for private rather than communal benefit. This process, repeated over and over around the globe, created the world we live in today — the world built on money.

    As we lose control over our access to what we need to live as the land that holds our communities together, that binds us to one another, is co-opted or stolen from us, we lose our power of self-determination. Self-governance, freedom, liberty — these are what colonisation and enclosure take from us when they steal our livelihoods.

    As part of my work, I keep a close eye on the approaches to counter-disinformation that those whose relationship to power is smoother than my own take. Also, in this the year of our Lord 2025, it is mandatory to devote at least some portion of each public talk to AI.

    I am also profoundly sorry to have to report that as far as I can tell, the only work on counter-disinformation still getting funding is work that claims to be able to use AI to detect and counter disinformation. It will not surprise you that I am extremely dubious about these claims.

    AI has been created through what has been called “data colonialism”, in that it relies on stolen data, just as traditional forms of colonialism rely on stolen land.

    Risks and dangers of AI
    AI itself — and I am speaking here specifically of generative AI — is being used as a tool of oppression. Other forms of AI have their own risks and dangers, but in this context, generative AI is quite simply a tool of power consolidation, of hollowing out of human skill and care, and of profanity, in the sense of being the opposite of sacred.

    Words, art, conversation, companionship — these are fiercely human things. For a machine to mimic these things is to transgress against all of our communities — all the more so when the machine is being wielded by people who speak openly of genocide and white supremacy.

    However, just as capitalism can be fought through community, colonialism can and has been fought through our own commitment to living our lives in freedom. It is fought by refusing their demands and denying their power, whether through the traditional tools of street protest and nonviolent resistance, or through simply walking away from the structures of violence and control that they have implemented.

    In the current moment, that particularly includes the technological tools that are being used to destroy our communities and create the data being used to enact their oppression. Each of us is free to deny them access to our lives, our hopes, and dreams.

    This version of colonisation has a unique weakness, in that the cyber dystopia they have created can be unplugged and turned off. And yet, we can still retain the parts of it that serve us well by building our own technological infrastructure and helping people use that instead of the kind owned and controlled by oligarchs.

    By living our lives with the freedom we all possess as human beings, we can deny these systems the symbolic power they rely on to continue.

    That said, this has limitations. This process of theft that underlies both traditional colonialism and contemporary data colonialism, rather than that of land or data, destroys our material base of support — ie. places to grow food, the education of our children, control over our intellectual property.

    Power consolidated upwards
    The outcome is to create ever more dependence on systems outside of our control that serve to consolidate power upwards and create classes of disposable people through the logic of dehumanisation.

    Disposable people have been a feature across many human societies. We see it in slaves, in cultures that use banishment and exile, and in places where imprisonment is used to enforce laws.

    Right now we see it in the United States being directed at scale towards those from Central and Latin America and around the world. The men being sent to the El Salvadorian gulag, the toddlers sent to immigration court without a lawyer, the federal workers tossed from their jobs — these are disposable people to Trump.

    The logic of colonialism relies on the process of dehumanisation; of denying the moral relevance of people’s identity and position within their communities and families. When they take a father from his family, they are dehumanising him and his family. They are denying the moral relevance of his role as a father and of his children and wife.

    When they require a child to appear alone before an immigration judge, they are dehumanising her by denying her the right to be recognised as a child with moral claims on the adults around her. When they say they want to transition federal workers from unproductive government jobs to the private sector, they are denying those workers their life’s work and identity as labourers whose work supports the common good.

    There was a time when I would point out that we all know where this leads, but we are there now. It has led there, although given the US incarceration rate for Black men, it isn’t unreasonable to argue that in fact for some people, the US has always been there. Fascism is not an aberration, it is a continuation. But the quickening is here. The expansion of dehumanisation and hate have escalated under Trump.

    Dehumanisaton always starts with words and  language. And Trump is genuinely — and terribly — gifted with language. His speeches are compelling, glittering, and persuasive to his audiences. With his words and gestures, he creates an alternate reality. When Trump says, “They’re eating the cats! They’re eating the dogs!”, he is using language to dehumanise Haitian immigrants.

    An alternate reality for migrants
    When he calls immigrants “aliens” he is creating an alternate reality where migrants are no longer human, no longer part of our communities, but rather outside of them, not fully human.

    When he tells lies and spews bullshit into our shared information system, those lies are virtually always aimed at creating a permission structure to deny some group of people their full humanity. Outrageous lie after outrageous lie told over and over again crumbles society in ways that we have seen over and over again throughout history.

    In Europe, the claims that women were consorting with the devil led to the witch trials and the burning of thousands of women across central and northern Europe. In Myanmar, claims that Rohinga Muslims were commiting rape, led to mass slaughter.

    Just as we fight the logics of capitalism with community and colonialism with a fierce commitment to our freedom, the power to resist dehumanisation is also ours. Through empathy and care — which is simply the material manifestation of empathy — we can defeat attempts to dehumanise.

    Empathy and care are inherent to all functioning societies — and they are tools we all have available to us. By refusing to be drawn into their hateful premises, by putting morality and compassion first, we can draw attention to the ridiculousness of their ideas and help support those targeted.

    Disinformation is the tool used to dehumanise. It always has been. During the COVID-19 pandemic when disinformation as a concept gained popularity over the rather older concept of propaganda, there was a real moment where there was a drive to focus on misinformation, or people who were genuinely wrong about usually public health facts. This is a way to talk about misinformation that elides the truth about it.

    There is an empirical reality underlying the tsunami of COVID disinformation and it is that the information was spread intentionally by bad actors with the goal of destroying the social bonds that hold us all together. State actors, including the United States under the first Trump administration, spread lies about COVID intentionally for their own benefit and at the cost of thousands if not millions of lives.

    Lies and disinformation at scale
    This tactic was not new then. Those seeking political power or to destroy communities for their own financial gain have always used lies and disinformation. But what is different this time, what has created unique risks, is the scale.

    Networked disinformation — the power to spread bullshit and lies across the globe within seconds and within a context where traditional media and sources of both moral and factual authority have been systematically weakened over decades of neoliberal attack — has created a situation where disinformation has more power and those who wield it can do so with precision.

    But just as we have the means to fight capitalism, colonialism, and dehumanisation, so too do we — you and I — have the tools to fight disinformation: truth, and accurate and timely reporting from trustworthy sources of information shared with the communities impacted in their own language and from their own people.

    If words and images are the chosen tools of dehumanisation and disinformation, then we are lucky because they are fighting with swords that we forged and that we know how to wield. You, the media, are the front lines right now. Trump will take all of our money and all of our resources, but our work must continue.

    Times like this call for fearlessness and courage. But more than that, they call on us to use all of the tools in our toolboxes — community, self-determination, care, and truth. Fighting disinformation isn’t something we can do in a vacuum. It isn’t something that we can depersonalise and mechanise. It requires us to work together to build a very human movement.

    I can’t deny that Trump’s attacks have exhausted me and left me depressed. I’m a librarian by training. I love sharing stories with people, not telling them myself. I love building communities of learning and of sharing, not taking to the streets in protest.

    More than anything else, I just want a nice cup of tea and a novel. But we are here in what I’ve seen others call “a coyote moment”. Like Wile E. Coyote, we are over the cliff with our legs spinning in the air.

    We can use this time to focus on what really matters and figure out how we will keep going and keep working. We can look at the blue sky above us and revel in what beauty and joy we can.

    Building community, exercising our self-determination, caring for each other, and telling the truth fearlessly and as though our very lives depend on it will leave us all the stronger and ready to fight Trump and his tidal wave of disinformation.

    Mandy Henk, co-founder of Dark Times Academy, has been teaching and learning on the margins of the academy for her whole career. As an academic librarian, she has worked closely with academics, students, and university administrations for decades. She taught her own courses, led her own research work, and fought for a vision of the liberal arts that supports learning and teaching as the things that actually matter. This article was originally presented as an invited address at the annual general meeting of the Asia Pacific Media Network on 24 April 2025.

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC Apr 27, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

     For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript support.

    Apr 27, 2025 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

    Updated: Sun Apr 27 01:00:42 UTC 2025 (Print Version |   |  )

    Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

     Forecast Discussion

    SPC AC 270100

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0800 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

    Valid 270100Z – 271200Z

    …THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
    EASTERN NM INTO SOUTHWEST TX…AND ALSO NEAR THE ARKLATEX
    VICINITY…

    …SUMMARY…
    Scattered severe thunderstorms may continue over eastern New Mexico
    into parts of west Texas through the evening. A threat for large to
    very large hail and a couple of tornadoes are the primary risks.
    Scattered strong to severe storms also remain possible across parts
    of western/central Arkansas and vicinity.

    …Eastern NM into west/central TX…
    Widely scattered supercells are ongoing this evening from
    east-central NM into the TX Permian Basin region, near and to the
    south of a remnant outflow boundary that earlier moved into the
    region from the east. MLCINH will increase through the evening
    across the region, and the eastward advance of the NM storms may be
    limited by a less unstable and increasingly capped airmass to the
    cool side of the remnant outflow. However, a modest increase in
    low-level flow through the evening may help to maintain a couple of
    these supercells, which will tend to propagate southeastward along
    the instability gradient. Backed low-level flow and modestly
    enlarged hodographs may continue to support tornado potential with
    these cells for as long as they persist and remain surface-based.
    Otherwise, large to very large hail and localized severe gusts will
    remain a threat with the strongest storms.

    Farther east, an isolated strong storm or two may yet develop within
    a persistent cumulus field across parts of central TX. Moderate
    instability and deep-layer shear could support at least briefly
    organized storms if initiation occurs, with a threat of isolated
    hail and strong gusts.

    …Western/central AR and vicinity…
    Moderate instability and modestly enhanced midlevel flow attendant
    to an MCV over eastern OK have supported occasional supercell
    structures early this evening from western AR into the ArkLaTex
    region. A few stronger cells may persist through dusk, accompanied
    by a threat of hail, isolated damaging wind, and possibly a tornado
    or two. A gradual weakening trend is expected later this evening
    after the onset of nocturnal cooling, though relatively rich
    low-level moisture may delay this process somewhat and allow for
    some severe threat to spread into parts of central AR with time.

    …Parts of the Carolinas/southeast VA…
    Widely scattered storms are ongoing this evening from the eastern
    Carolinas into southeast VA, along/ahead of a cold front. MLCAPE
    around 1000 J/kg and modest deep-layer shear could support
    occasionally strong storms with potential for locally gusty/damaging
    winds, before storms weaken later this evening.

    ..Dean.. 04/27/2025

    CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

    .html”>Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today’s Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Security: DHS Sweeps into Action to Protect Child from Tren De Aragua Parents 

    Source: US Department of Homeland Security

    WASHINGTON – Despite claims from the Venezuelan government that the U.S. “kidnapped” a child, the truth is DHS took action because both her parents are part of Tren De Aragua.  

    The child’s father, Maiker Espinoza-Escalona is a lieutenant of Tren De Aragua who oversees homicides, drug sales, kidnappings, extortion, sex trafficking and operates a torture house. The child’s mother, Yorely Escarleth Bernal Inciarte oversees recruitment of young women for drug smuggling and prostitution. These criminal illegal aliens entered the country illegally and had final orders of removal from a judge.  

    Thanks to President Trump and Secretary Noem, both of these criminal gang members have been removed from our country.  

    In partnership with the Department of Health and Human Services, the child was taken off the deportation flight manifest for her safety and welfare. The child remains in the care and custody of the Office of Refugee Resettlement and is currently placed with a foster family. 

    The previous administration allowed many children who came across the border unaccompanied to be placed with sponsors who were actually smugglers and sex traffickers. In less than 100 days, Secretary Noem and Secretary Kennedy have already reunited over 5,000 unaccompanied children with a relative or safe guardian. 

    Statement attributable to a senior DHS official: 

    “Thanks to President Trump, these Tren De Aragua gang members have been removed from our country. Due to the violent criminal activities of the parents including operating a torture house, sex trafficking, and kidnapping the child was removed from their custody. We will not allow this child to be abused and continue to be exposed to criminal activity that endangers her safety.  

    President Trump and Secretary Noem take their responsibility to protect children seriously and will continue to work with federal law enforcement and the Department of Health and Human Services to ensure that children are safe from abuse, sexual exploitation, and trafficking.”

    MIL Security OSI –

  • MIL-OSI USA: On Earth Day, Congresswoman Betty McCollum Re-Introduces Mississippi River Restoration Legislation

    Source: United States House of Representatives – Congresswoman Betty McCollum (DFL-Minn)

    SAINT PAUL, Minn. — Congresswoman Betty McCollum (DFL-Minn.) reintroduced the Mississippi River Restoration and Resilience Initiative (MRRRI) Act (H.R. 2977) on Tuesday, aiming to establish a non-regulatory initiative to coordinate restoration and resilience opportunities along the Mississippi River corridor. MRRRI is modeled on the highly successful Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI). Upon reintroducing the legislation for the 119th Congress, Congresswoman McCollum issued the following statement:

     “I grew up along the Mississippi River in South St. Paul, where I learned to cherish this world-class waterway,” said Congresswoman McCollum. “The river was a vital channel for commerce then, and it still is today. But back then, nobody cared for the Mississippi – and the quality of the water suffered, as did the ecosystem that relies on it. Thanks to those who stepped up to protect it, the Mississippi River remains a working river for the wildlife, families, recreationists, and businesses that depend on it.

    “Earth Day is the ideal time to assess the great progress we’ve made, but at the same time, understand the growing risks. From the northernmost headwaters in Lake Itasca to the Middle Mississippi where it meets the Ohio River, and all the way down to the Mississippi Delta, the health of this great river continues to be at risk. Just days ago, the Mississippi River was named ‘America’s Most Endangered River’ by conservation organization American Rivers.

    “Flooding and other extreme weather events, pollution, and runoff threaten the river and surrounding communities. The health of the river is critical not just for the sake of the natural beauty, wildlife, and climate change-fighting capabilities of these resources, but for our economy and so our communities can thrive as well. That’s why I’m proud to introduce the Mississippi River Restoration and Resilience Act. Future generations are counting on us. We must act with urgency.”

    The Mississippi River Restoration and Resilience Initiative would:

    • Improve community resilience to climate change and reduce flood risk by restoring floodplains, riverine wetlands, delta and coastal wetlands, and backwaters
    • Improve drinking water quality in the Mississippi River and Gulf of Mexico by reducing polluted runoff
    • Protect and restore wildlife habitat throughout the river corridor
    • Prevent the spread of aquatic invasive species in the river system

    Background:

    McCollum first introduced the MRRRI Act in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 117th Congress.

    The Mississippi River Restoration and Resilience Initiative (MRRRI) would invest in building resilience to increased flooding and storms, improving water quality, restoring wildlife habitat, and stopping the spread of aquatic invasive species. MRRRI would also improve coordination at the federal level around the challenges of protecting and improving the Mississippi River and make additional federal investments all along the Mississippi River Corridor. The initiative would fund community-driven projects, guided by an action plan that is shaped by state, tribal, and local government partners with the input of stakeholders working together to improve the health of America’s River and the communities that rely on it.

    The changes to the bill for the 119th Congress are:

    • Adding reference to the Hypoxia Task Force as a consulting entity and making clear that MRRRI is not to supplant the functions of the Hypoxia Task Force;
    • Removal of the findings section
    • Changing the wording of eligible activity (xi) to emphasize building capacity within communities to undertake MRRRI projects
    • Removal of funding set-asides and related definitions
    • Changing the number of Mississippi River Science Centers to 3 (A National, Upper, & Lower center).

    Additional Resources:

     

    ###

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC Apr 26, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

     For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript support.

    Apr 26, 2025 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

    Updated: Sat Apr 26 19:46:00 UTC 2025 (Print Version |   |  )

    Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

     Forecast Discussion

    SPC AC 261946

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0246 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

    Valid 262000Z – 271200Z

    …THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW
    MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN AND PARTS OF THE TEXARKANA REGION…

    …SUMMARY…
    Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico
    into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A
    threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are
    the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this
    afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley.

    …20z Update…
    The previous forecast largely remains on track with the only notable
    change being an eastward shift/expansion of 15% wind probabilities
    (Slight risk) across portions of southeast OK, northeast TX, and
    into far southwest AR. As of 19 UTC, regional radar mosaics show
    deepening thunderstorms along a residual outflow boundary/effective
    warm front ahead of a decaying MCS. Along this boundary,
    temperatures have warmed into the low 80s with upper 60s/low 70s
    dewpoints, resulting in MLCAPE exceeding 2000 J/kg. A recent ACARS
    sounding from DFW sampled 30-35 knot mid-level flow over the region,
    which should be sufficient for some storm organization/longevity
    with an attendant threat for all hazards. Storm interactions should
    favor clustering through late afternoon and may support a focused
    corridor of wind damage/gust potential downstream of the developing
    storms. See the previous discussion below and MCDs #568 and #569 for
    additional details.

    ..Moore.. 04/26/2025

    .PREV DISCUSSION… /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025/

    …NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex…
    Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing
    south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and
    westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall
    later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the
    Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface
    observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over
    southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong
    west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the
    base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today.

    Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization
    (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into
    the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest.
    Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this
    afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the
    vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse
    rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary
    layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a
    veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very
    large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A
    tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening.
    Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this
    evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts
    of west TX.

    Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon.
    Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a
    re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to
    be the primary risk with these storms.

    …Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas…
    A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and
    the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward,
    moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the
    remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist
    airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm
    development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward
    throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the
    Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the
    Chesapeake Bay.

    Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could
    support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and
    evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting
    the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally
    damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany
    the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is
    expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z.

    CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

    .html”>Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today’s Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC Apr 26, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

     For best viewing experience, please enable browser JavaScript support.

    Apr 26, 2025 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

    Updated: Sat Apr 26 16:43:07 UTC 2025 (Print Version |   |  )

    Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table

     Forecast Discussion

    SPC AC 261643

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

    Valid 261630Z – 271200Z

    …THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN NEW
    MEXICO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN…

    …SUMMARY…
    Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over eastern New Mexico
    into parts of west Texas this afternoon through the evening. A
    threat for very large hail and possibly a couple of tornadoes are
    the primary risks. Scattered damaging gusts are possible this
    afternoon for parts of the Red River Valley.

    …NM into the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex…
    Visible satellite-radar composite shows a front/outflow pushing
    south across South Plains and Caprock over portions of west TX and
    westward into parts of eastern NM. This boundary will likely stall
    later this afternoon while moist upslope flow is maintained from the
    Permian Basin northwestward into southeast/eastern NM. Surface
    observations show a reservoir of lower to mid 60s dewpoints over
    southeast NM and west TX south of the boundary. Moderately strong
    west-southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend east from the
    base of a West Coast trough into the southern Great Plains today.

    Strong heating over eastern NM will aid in moderate destabilization
    (1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) from parts of northeast NM southward into
    the Eastern Plains/Permian Basin where buoyancy will be greatest.
    Models shows gradual erosion of convective inhibition later this
    afternoon with isolated to scattered storms developing in the
    vicinity of the dryline/composite front. Steep 700-500 mb lapse
    rates sampled on the 12z Midland, TX raob atop a deep/moist boundary
    layer will support supercell development in conjunction with a
    veering and gradually strengthening wind profile. Large to very
    large hail will be possible with a few of these stronger storms. A
    tornado risk may develop during the late afternoon/early evening.
    Some of this activity may grow upscale into a small cluster this
    evening posing a hail/wind threat is moves east-southeast into parts
    of west TX.

    Farther east, an MCS will continue east across OK this afternoon.
    Moist low levels in the vicinity of the Red River may enable a
    re-invigoration of storms this afternoon. Damaging gusts appear to
    be the primary risk with these storms.

    …Northeast/Mid Atlantic/Carolinas…
    A shortwave trough will continue moving through southern Ontario and
    the adjacent Lower Great Lakes. A cold front will progress eastward,
    moving through the northern Mid-Atlantic by this evening and the
    remainder of the Mid-Atlantic States by tonight. A relatively moist
    airmass is already in place ahead of this front, and thunderstorm
    development appears likely along the front as it moves eastward
    throughout the period. Highest coverage is anticipated from the
    Hudson Valley/NYC vicinity southward across the Delmarva to the
    Chesapeake Bay.

    Gradually strengthening midlevel flow and deep-layer shear could
    support a few stronger cells/clusters during the afternoon and
    evening. Diurnal heating will be tempered by cloud cover, limiting
    the overall buoyancy and updraft magnitude. Even so, some locally
    damaging wind and small to near-severe hail could accompany
    the strongest storms. Best overlap between the buoyancy and shear is
    expected from NJ into the Delmarva vicinity from 18Z to 21Z.

    ..Smith/Wendt.. 04/26/2025

    CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

    .html”>Latest Day 2 Outlook/Today’s Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC MD 569

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Mesoscale Discussion 569

    Mesoscale Discussion 0569
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0228 PM CDT Sat Apr 26 2025

    Areas affected…Portions of eastern New Mexico into the Trans-Pecos

    Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible

    Valid 261928Z – 262130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent

    SUMMARY…Large to very-large hail and perhaps a tornado or two are
    possible with supercells near an outflow boundary this
    afternoon/evening. A watch may eventually be needed. Convective
    trends will be monitored.

    DISCUSSION…With continuing convection within Oklahoma and western
    North Texas, outflow has continued to push west/southwestward into
    eastern New Mexico and through the South Plains. While a few
    towering cumulus have been observed along this outflow boundary
    during the afternoon, residence time within the zone of ascent has
    been too short to promote deep convection. Farther to the west,
    southeasterly winds have pushed mid/upper 50s F dewpoints into the
    southern Rockies. Convection has been slowly deepening per day cloud
    phase imagery. The most likely scenario is for a few storms to
    develop within the next 2-3 hours and propagate east-southeastward
    as the outflow boundary pushes up against the terrain.

    With 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE near and just behind the outflow boundary
    (where it has remained cloud free) and 30-40 kts of effective shear
    across the boundary, supercells would likely be the dominant storm
    mode. Steep mid-level lapse rates sampled in this mornings observed
    soundings in the region suggest large to very-large hail would be
    possible along with isolated severe gusts. The tornado threat is
    somewhat less certain given what will at least initially be weak
    low-level winds. However, backed surface winds along/near the
    outflow boundary will provide greater SRH for storms that favorably
    interact with it. There will be a modest increase in the low-level
    jet this evening, but, given the more stable conditions with
    eastward extent, the spatial window for greater tornado potential
    appears limited/conditional. Convective trends will continue to be
    monitored. A watch may eventually be needed, but timing remains
    uncertain.

    ..Wendt/Smith.. 04/26/2025

    …Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…

    ATTN…WFO…MAF…ABQ…EPZ…

    LAT…LON 34320539 34990547 35180540 35430514 35450483 35380461
    34820408 34210380 33560359 32970322 32090328 31670392
    31970455 33240527 33900547 34320539

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY…85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST…55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE…2.00-3.50 IN

    Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: SPC Tornado Watch 175

    Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

    Note:  The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
    SEL5

    URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    Tornado Watch Number 175
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    250 PM MDT Sat Apr 26 2025

    The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

    * Tornado Watch for portions of
    Eastern New Mexico
    West Texas

    * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until
    900 PM MDT.

    * Primary threats include…
    A couple tornadoes possible
    Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
    Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

    SUMMARY…Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms are
    forecast to develop this afternoon into the evening. Supercells
    capable of large to very large hail and possibly a couple of
    tornadoes will be the primary hazards.

    The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles
    east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Tucumcari NM to
    45 miles south southwest of Hobbs NM. For a complete depiction of
    the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
    WOU5).

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    REMEMBER…A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
    tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
    area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
    threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
    and possible warnings.

    &&

    AVIATION…Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
    surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
    gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
    storm motion vector 27020.

    …Smith

    Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
    SAW5
    WW 175 TORNADO NM TX 262050Z – 270300Z
    AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
    50NW TCC/TUCUMCARI NM/ – 45SSW HOB/HOBBS NM/
    ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /43NW TCC – 19NW INK/
    HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..3 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
    MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020.

    LAT…LON 35680316 32070249 32070454 35680530

    THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
    FOR WOU5.

    Watch 175 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

    Note:  Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes

    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

    Mod (30%)

    Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

    Low (20%)

    Wind

    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

    Mod (30%)

    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

    Low (20%)

    Hail

    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

    Mod (60%)

    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

    Mod (60%)

    Combined Severe Hail/Wind

    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

    High (80%)

    For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Press Briefing Transcript: Western Hemisphere Department, Spring Meetings 2025

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    April 26, 2025

    Participants:

    Mr. Rodrigo Valdes, Director of Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund

    Ms. Ana Corbacho, Deputy Director of Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund

    Mr. Nigel Chalk, Deputy Director Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund

    Moderator: 

    Ms. Julie Ziegler, Senior Communications Officer, International Monetary Fund

     

     

    MS. ZIEGLER: Good afternoon and welcome.  This is the press briefing for the Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere.  I am Julie Ziegler with the Communications Department.  And let me start by introducing our panel today.  To my left is Rodrigo Valdes, who is the Director of the Western Hemisphere Department, and he is joined by Deputy Directors in the Western Hemisphere Department as well, Ana Corbacho and Nigel Chalk. 

    We are going to begin with opening remarks from Rodrigo before taking your questions.  So, Rodrigo, the floor is yours. 

    MR. VALDES: Well, thank you, Julie.  Good afternoon, everybody.  Welcome to this briefing on Latin America and the Caribbean.  Before starting, let me express my sympathy to all the affected people by the recent earthquake in Ecuador. 

    So, I will frame my remarks today around two key themes.  Okay.  One is the uncertainties that we have to navigate, and second, the certainties that we can build upon.  Importantly, these two topics, these two themes, converge in one single message: and that it’s imperative for the countries in the region to continue strengthening economic resilience. 

    Let me first summarize how we see the economic outlook for the region.  In line with the changes that you have seen in the global context since our last Regional Economic Outlook in October last year, we expect average growth in the region to moderate.  Specifically, for Latin America and the Caribbean, on average, we expect growth to slow down from 2.4 percent last year to 2 percent this year, 2025 — against 2.5 that we were expecting six months ago.  After that, we expect growth will edge back to 2.4 percent. 

    Activity has remained largely driven by consumption in the region amid resilient labor markets.  However, slower global growth, elevated uncertainty, the impact of tariffs and tighter domestic policies in some countries will weight on growth.

    Behind this average, there is significant heterogeneity.  Following tight macro policies and, of course, being more affected by U.S. trade policies, Mexico’s GDP is expected to decline slightly this year.  We also continue to expect a relevant deceleration in Brazil driven by, let me underscore, appropriate tighter policies in Argentina and Ecuador, which have programs supported by the IMF, we expect an important rebound this year.

    On the inflation front, convergence to targets last year was relatively slow, slower than before.  Fading global disinflation was behind this and also effects in the region that was depreciating.  We expect though that the declining inflation should continue, although most countries will not reach their targets before 2026. 

    Today, as you know, we have a landscape that is shaped by very complex phenomena that are interplaying, and tariffs, value chains, disruptions, commodity price movements, financial market volatility and policy uncertainty are all together.  The impact of these factors on growth is relatively clear; it is negative, although a few countries may enjoy some trade diversion and cushion this. 

    However, although [that] part of [the] activity is clear, the inflation outcome is quite ambiguous and will depend on how these factors unfold in each country’s specific context.  [It] also depends on domestic risks, such as potential fiscal slippages.  For example, while tariffs are a negative demand shock in tariff countries or the region, pushing prices down, value chain disruptions create negative supply shocks for the world economy with an opposite effect on prices.  And even though tariffs to the region are relatively low in comparison to the rest, the acceleration in global growth could affect commodity demand, prices, and, indirectly, inflation through exchange rate depreciation.  With this in mind, we see downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation, although the balance on the latter or inflation will depend on how global developments play out. 

    Let me move to policies, what countries can do in this environment.  In our last Regional Economic Outlook, we called for the need to rebalance the policy mix.  That meant basically tighter fiscal to make space for looser monetary policy.  This remains broadly relevant, although with greater emphasis on the need to strengthen public finances.  At the margin, certainty is very important in this juncture.  This is not the moment to alter policy frameworks or abandon fiscal plans.  Many countries have very good policy frameworks.  It is the moment to stick with them. 

    It is important to allow exchange rates to absorb shocks when fundamentals move, and also to use the IMF Integrated Policy Framework as a guide, perhaps, for interventions to address financial stability risks from disorderly market movements.  Thus far, the regional markets have continued to function effectively. 

    Now, in terms of monetary policy, in the last few quarters we have seen quite a bit of a heterogeneity in the region.  Some central banks are hiking, some other central banks are being easing.  Future actions should carefully strike a balance between durably bringing inflation back to targets, but at the same time trying to avoid an undue economic contraction.  Incoming data will be critical, while central bank independence, as you have seen throughout this week, remains a key anchor to inflation expectations.

    What remains certain is the imperative to rebuild fiscal buffers and policy buffers in general.  There is high public debt in several places and an unfavorable combination of rising financing cost and low growth.  Thus, we believe that fiscal consolidation should continue without delays, at least for now, while protecting priority public spending and social spending. 

    And, of course, there is this long challenge of lifting the very low potential growth that we have in the region.  So structural reforms continue to be urgent.  This will require first strengthening governance and security.  Security has been a topic in the region for long.  Second, enhancing productivity by improving the business environment, striving for policy predictability, and reducing informality.  And third, fostering greater intraregional trade. 

    I would also like to mention that since the last time we met in October, Suriname successfully completed the last review of its program.  It wasn’t an easy program at the beginning but was a very successful one and ended very well.  And we launched new programs with El Salvador and Argentina.  We continue supporting a number of other countries with either precautionary or drawing arrangements. 

    Before finishing, let me go back to my starting point.  In a world marked by uncertainty, the case for reinforcing macroeconomic frameworks that work well and increasing economic resilience and growth opportunities is clear.  For our part, we will continue supporting countries in the region, closely engaging through policy advice, capacity development, and financial support if needed. 

    With this, we are happy to take your questions. 

    MS. ZIEGLER: Thank you, Rodrigo.  So, before we take your questions, let me quickly run through some housekeeping items.  First, just a reminder that this is on the record and that we also have simultaneous translation in Spanish and Portuguese.  And second, if you do ask a question and if you are called on, please make sure to state your name and your affiliation before asking your question.  Third, if you are joining us online, please keep your camera on.  We won’t be able to take your question if we cannot see you.  And finally, please keep your questions brief.  We will try to get to as many as we can in the time that we have today. 

    And so now we are going to kick it off with questions, and let’s start with questions, groups of questions on the region.  That would be questions on Latin America, the Caribbean, or the entire Western Hemisphere.  And we will come to country specific questions after that. 

    So, may I ask, does anyone have a question on the region?  Woman in the red. 

    QUESTIONER: Hi, Mr. Rodrigo.  Can you share with us if the authorities of U.S. have been participating in the meeting committee?  Have the members spoken with Mr. Vincent?  And I had another question. 

    MS. ZIEGLER: Is that a question for the region though?  We’re starting with the — with the region first.  Not country specific questions. 

    QUESTIONER: I thought that I could do it for all the — it’s for all the regions.  But if you don’t think —

    MS. ZIEGLER: It’s okay.  Do you have a broader question there for the region? 

    QUESTIONER: Yes, I had another question.  I want to know your outlook about the immigration policies in U.S. and the impact on the remittances to our region.  Thank you.

    MS. ZIEGLER: And I have a question.  While we are on that, let me just go to a question that we had online from Efe, which is, you’ve said that this is not the moment to alter policy frameworks or abandon fiscal plans.  Is this message addressed to any country in particular?  And you also consider that what remains certain is the imperative to build policy buffers.  Is the region lagging behind in this respect? 

    So, is there any other?  I’ll take one more on the region.  On the region? 

    QUESTIONER: It is on the region, but it’s with a little country in it.  I wanted to know what role does the IMF see Guyana and Suriname, major oil-producing countries, now playing in ensuring Caribbean economic growth and stability while satisfying the demands by ordinary people in those oil-producing nations for increased wages and salaries?  And at the same time, what advice would you give to temper spending and borrowing using that resource as leverage? 

    MR. VALDES: Okay, so let me start by what authorities met, et cetera.  I think it is a question for the authorities, not for us.  So, I would prefer that you go directly to the authorities. 

    Your question on immigration is very important.  Our baseline considers an important decline on immigration, of immigration towards the U.S, okay.  Basically, that undocumented immigration goes basically to zero.  There is documented immigration still, and there are some people being sent back.  That has an effect first for the U.S. economy that maybe Nigel would like to add a bit of color on that.  What is the implication?  But also has, as you mentioned, an effect in the region.  And this is particularly important for Central America and Mexico, and if I have to say, more Central America than Mexico, given the relative size. 

    And here one issue is remittances.  We expect remittances to decline going forward.  How much is a very open question.  In the short run, we’re seeing the opposite.  Remittances are increasing, but we see that mostly as temporary.  So this will be a challenge for the economists to manage.  Since this is a shock that is probably more persistent, probably you will have to adjust to that shock.  It will have effects on consumption and probably also in economic activity. 

    There is also a challenge of absorbing people who would have migrated otherwise or that are coming back.  That’s also an opportunity.  There are countries which there is a shortage of people to work, but labor. rkets will be attuned to this.  There are a few countries that already have programs to reinsert people, that is correct.  We support that view. 

    Let me move to the second question and at the end I will go to Nigel, on basically the immigration question in the U.S.  Look, this message is not for any particular country.  I would put it the opposite.  It doesn’t apply to very few countries.  I don’t want to mention those.  But in general, in the region, we have seen some delays in fiscal consolidation in the last couple of years.  In many, many countries we have debt levels, debt ratios that are back to the peak after COVID.  So, after one year, when they decline, then they are back.  So, there is an important case to continue, at least in the short run, with this.  Are countries lagging the rest of the world?  The issue of fiscal is very generalized in many, many countries, not only Latin America, but I would say that that doesn’t make the homework less important and less urgent. 

    Finally, on the Caribbean and the questions, let me phrase it, and perhaps Ana would like to add on this.  But Suriname and Guyana are two countries that are living through important discoveries of oil, and that is a very challenging situation.  You probably know that there are lessons in history that these discoveries, or more generally natural resources, can be a blessing or can be a curse depending on how you manage that. 

    We are seeing very good management in Guyana.  Now. Suriname has to establish the framework for this to work well for them.  And for the region in general, of course, two countries, one country is already growing double digits and more, and the other one will be growing fast.  And those, of course, will be important for the region. 

    With that, let me go to Nigel, and perhaps Ana would like to add something on the Caribbean too. 

    MR. CHALK: On the immigration question in the U.S.  So, we have built into our forecast a significant decline in immigration flows into the U.S.  To give you a sense of magnitude, around the last couple of years, we have seen somewhere between three and three and a half million new foreign workers coming, foreign individuals coming into the U.S.  Only around 20 percent of those come through the formal immigration channels, green cards, and formal visas.  So our expectation, judging by what we can see on the statistics so far in border encounters, is that there’ll be a significant drop of that group that’s not coming through those formal channels.  And we essentially assume that’s going to go close to zero on a net basis. 

    So, what does that do to the U.S. economy?  I would point to a couple of things.  Probably the first important thing is in labor markets.  That inflow of foreign workers over the past few years has been very important in terms of helping the U.S. labor markets equilibrate, reducing wage growth, and then ultimately bringing down inflation.  So, it’s been an important disinflationary force that’s helped the Federal Reserve move inflation back towards their target.  That disinflationary force is going to go away, we expect, in the next couple of years. 

    Secondly, that group of individuals contributes to demand in the U.S. economy.  So, they come here, they need housing, they consume.  So that is going to provide a drag as a headwind on the demand side.  We think the supply-side forces are going to probably be the more dominant ones.  And we particularly see that a lot of that immigrant foreign labor group is concentrated in a few sectors.  So, you can think about retail, construction, agriculture.  And so, we are expecting we’ll probably see more tight labor markets in many of those sectors.

    MS. CORBACHO: Let me make a few specific remarks on Guyana.  Guyana has been the fastest-growing economy not only in the Caribbean but in the whole world, with average growth rates of 47 percent between 2022 and 2024.  We expect Guyana to continue to have very fast growth rates in an environment of macroeconomic stability.  In the current global uncertain environment, maintaining this macroeconomic stability is very critical, as well as continuing to strengthen resilience to shocks.  This includes shocks from oil prices, as well as continue to build very strong institutions so that the benefits of the oil wealth can be shared across generations.  Currently, all revenues are already helping Guyana address very significant development needs.  The Sovereign Wealth Fund has about 13 percent of GDP in buffers, and this is going to be very crucial to mitigate the impact of any global shocks.  And over time, we have emphasized the need to gradually close fiscal deficits again to preserve that wealth for the future.  Thank you.

    MS. ZIEGLER: Great.  So any other, just maybe a question or two.  Anyone?  Last in the region?  Okay, the gentleman in the blue shirt in the aisle. 

    QUESTIONER: Good afternoon.  Eastern Caribbean related questions.  Regarding tariffs, what recommendation would the IMF give to the small island states in the OECS, more specifically, or small island states in the Caribbean to mitigate against the potential fallout from the U.S. trade tariffs?  And a related question.  What should member states of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union do — considering the potential effect of the dollar failure — as the Eastern Caribbean currency is currently pegged to the U.S. dollar?  And finally, climate change.  What should these small island states within the Eastern Caribbean do to protect themselves in light of the United Nations, the United States, and other developed nations cutting back when it comes to climate change assistance? 

    MS. ZIEGLER: Okay, maybe one last question and then we can move on to country questions.  Does anybody else have a question on the region?  Yes, please.  The woman there.

    QUESTIONER: Of course, inflation it is a thing, but in the Western Hemisphere it’s not really versus other regions.  So, I would really want to know if we should concentrate on debt, fiscal risks, or we should concentrate on growth?  Of course, the ideal thing is that they come together.  But right now, sometimes it feels like it is one thing or another.  Thank you. 

    MS. ZIEGLER: Anyone else?  The gentleman there.  And then we will move on to country questions after this. 

    QUESTIONER: Hi, what challenges and opportunities does the IMF see for the Caribbean countries in light of the uncertainties created by the new administration in Washington, given the historic links between the United States and the Caribbean in trade remittances and as a major tourism source market. 

    MR. VALDES:  Okay, perhaps I can kind of start with a few ideas on the Caribbean and perhaps Ana would like to add some note.  But first, of course, tariffs.  And the global cycle is a headwind for tourism in the Caribbean.  So, what to do with this?  Basically, we think that it’s very important to keep the macroeconomy as stable as possible.  And that means that countries which have lot of homework in terms of rebuilding fiscal space, they have to continue doing it.  The risks of not doing that is to face at the end a disorderly macroeconomy.  And that at the end of the day is much worse.  We have to recognize that it may be raining, but it’s reality.  It is reality that we will have this cycle. 

    Now, the data we have seen and the authorities view on the same is that tourism is usually made reservations in advance, and we haven’t seen yet a change or cancellations of the size that could produce big problems.  Second point, we are not worried at all about the peg in the ECCU.  They have a very good ratio in reserves to money.  It is important to keep consistent policies for that.  Natural resources, sorry not natural.  The problem of climate change and the Caribbean. The MD said something very important.  And I would like just to mention that.  The Caribbean is special when you compare with other countries because basically natural disasters are macro-critical and very close every day.  Therefore, it is important to work towards building a structure of financing and infrastructure to be able to basically confront these problems.  Well, we are there to work with the countries on that. 

    Then I move to the question of supporting growth or adjusting.  The first thing is to notice that the way this shock is playing out is still very uncertain.  And I would say that part of the discussions we had with authorities is that before deciding actively what to do, we have to wait a bit more and understand better.  That is the very first point.  Second point, there are countries that may have some space to react fiscally if needed, but many others in reality do not have that space.  But working again in the fiscal risk side opens up space for monetary policy. 

    It is very different for a central bank to face an economy where fiscal risks are increasing, are becoming more and more complex compared to another one where the fiscal continues to adjust and there’s no problems of fiscal credibility.  Therefore, we see that this call that we had before of rebalancing monetary and fiscal policies continues to be very important.  Ana, would you like to add on the Caribbean? 

    MS. CORBACHO: Rodrigo addressed already the priorities of course to build fiscal buffers, stay the course on improving fiscal positions as well as continuing to work on addressing resilience to natural catastrophes and extreme weather events.  I wanted to touch on a third very important area of policy efforts.  When it has to do with structural reforms, we expect the Caribbean to converge to a level of medium-term growth or potential growth that is quite low.  This is an agenda that is long standing and the current conditions of uncertainty and the need to boost growth and productivity becomes even more urgent right now.  This has of course the area of resilience, growth and productivity, including enhancing human capital and expanding access to finance.  And particularly in the current environment seeking synergies from intra-regional cooperation and integration where the Caribbean can really expand scope for capacity by working together across states. 

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Let’s turn to country questions now.  The woman in the green in the middle there.

    QUESTIONER:  Thank you for having my question.  Rodrigo, you mentioned that level [inaudible] is being back to [inaudible] COVID.  This is the Brazilian case, right.  And given the complex global landscape, what are the IMF recommendations to Brazil regarding fiscal and monetary policies?  And do you believe that the early debate about the presidential election next year impacts, you know, policies, activity, or anything else?  Thank you.

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Okay, let me take another question.  So, I have two questions about my country and thank you for your condolence because of the earthquake today.  I would like to know is there any answer or did you finish already the revision of the program?  And we were waiting for that last week, I think because IMF says it’s going to be an answer after the elections.  So, is there any results?  Is it possible to have the money this week or this month, when it’s going to happen?  And the second one is about the Ecuadorian requests for RSF program.  I know we were waiting about that.  The government said it is going to be possible to have that this year.  But I don’t know if any updates on that.

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Okay, do we have any other in Ecuador in particular?  Anybody?  Okay, let us take those and we’ll move on to other countries in the next round. 

    MR. VALDES:  Okay, let me again, Ana, will may want to add on Brazil, but let me start from the following.  First, elections happen in all the countries of the region.  It is normal to have these cycles.  There is nothing special from that.  Second, as you mentioned, Brazil has a fiscal challenge.  The authorities are very well aware of this, and they are taking measures for that to stabilize debt and eventually also to have the debt ratio in a downward path in the future.  Of course, one thing is to have that and then is the measures.  And the discussions with them is always about whether we can have more measures for ensure that this will happen.  But I would like to say that they have been taking measures; their fiscal rule this year with the objective that they have on the primary is very important to be met and we support that. 

    In terms of monetary policy in Brazil, the central bank has been tightening policies appropriately basically to bring inflation back to target.  As I mentioned at the beginning, giving certainty in this environment is very important.  And part of the certainties that many countries have, Brazil included, is to have a central bank that is committed to its target and also acts with full independence. 

    On Ecuador, we had an election not long ago, two weeks ago.  So, it’s not that things are not as fast as we would like.  No.  So,we had to expect to wait for the election to happen.  We are in conversations with the authorities.  We have had many meetings these days here.  There’s good progress in the discussions, but we cannot give you a precise date of [the] next steps.  No, we are working on that.  We hope to move fast. ON RSF, the RSF was a possibility for the authorities, but they have decided to postpone it for a while. They haven’t decided to officially ask for it later, but it’s a possibility. But with the purpose of facilitating this review which comes on the heels of very good performance of the program. That is what I can say. The authorities have been implementing strongly their program. At the same time, we have news — the world, lower oil prices — which need to be factored in the program. And that is what we are doing.

    MS. CORBACHO:  Let me start with a brief addition on Ecuador that the dialogue with the authorities continues to be extremely productive and very close.  We are taking stock of the implications of global developments on the macroeconomic framework for Ecuador.  And we continue to advance in securing the second review of the EFF arrangement.  We will come back on specific dates as soon as we have more information to give you to.

    MS. ZIEGLER: I am going to read a question online that we have from Ion Group.  It is on El Salvador.  Is El Salvador shifting around bitcoin from one account to the next?  Is that how they are adding to its bitcoin reserves versus straight out purchases?  And maybe we’ll take one other question from the, from the audience on a country matter. Okay, go ahead.  I know that’s Argentina over there.  We’ll come to Argentina.  You’ll get your own section. 

    QUESTIONER:  Thank you everyone.   Why the contribution the Monetary Fund to Honduras and the other country of the region in the context confusion and trade tension.  Additionally, what is the factor we leverage economic growth this year and the Honduras economy. 

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Okay, let us take those and [the] next round will be Argentina. 

    MR. VALDES:  So first let me start from Honduras.  Honduras just had a staff-level agreement with the Fund.  That means that we are ready to go to the Board for the review of the program, the second review.  Things have moved very well for the country.  It is an example of an old say of the Fund that is you repair your roof when it’s sunny outside.  And they took advantage of times that things were calmer, and they moved policies, both structural aspects and importantly macro aspects.  And today are in a much better position to withstand the global cycle. 

    They improve their reserves that they have, they mobilize resources from other IFIs.  They were able to lower inflation, and they have been growing pretty fast and also making progress in their fiscal adjustments.  So, I would say it’s a good case of preparedness.  So, the country is in a much better position now than it was before.

    In terms of El Salvador, let me say that I can confirm that they continue to comply with their commitment of non-accumulation of bitcoin by the overall fiscal sector, which is the performance criteria that we have.  But on top of that, I think this is very important for the discussion in El Salvador.  The program of El Salvador is not about bitcoin.  It’s much more, much deeper in structural reforms, in terms of governance, in terms of transparency.  There is a lot of progress there.  And also, on fiscal.  And authorities have been making a lot of progress implementing the reform. 

    We are preparing the first review of the program now.  This is, as you know, a 40-month program with 1.4 billion but what the money that they can mobilize from other IFIs, it is about $3.5 billion.  It has an important fiscal adjustment that the authorities are implementing.  At the end, this program is expected to create the conditions for stronger private investment and stronger growth in El Salvador.  Taking advantage, basically, or a much better macro on top of the dividends that the immense improvement in security will yield.

    MS. ZIEGLER: And now we will move to Argentina and we are going to take.  We are going to compile questions, and I will also, once we go into the — the questions in the room.  I am going to take a question online from [Liliana] as well.  So please feel free. Whoever would like, I will start on the aisle here. 

    QUESTIONER: The Argentina staff report mentions contingency planning in case of an external shock.  Wondering if you are expecting an external shock this year.  And in that case, what are the policy changes that you would expect Argentina to take to mitigate?

    QUESTIONER:    There’s been reports of pressure from the management to some of the Board directors in order to approve the IMF new program.  I was wondering if you could comment on that and also on the remarks that were made yesterday by Ms. Georgieva.  She said that Argentina should not derail from change, speaking about the elections.  And the opposition has accused her of meddling with the national elections. 

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Okay, any more Argentina questions in the room?  We are going to go to Webex, and we will take a question. 

    QUESTIONER:  Thank you for taking my questions.  And I have two — what inflation rates does the IMF project for this year?  I mean end of period and for the next year.  And the second question is, what are the potential risks facing Argentina’s economy program?

    MS. ZIEGLER: Okay, we’ll leave it there. 

    MR. VALDES: Okay, thank you.  Look, from the first questions and the two last questions, I will invite you to look at the Staff Report.  Really, I don’t have anything to add on.  We don’t work, we don’t change the view in a week of a country.  So, what is there really is the contingencies plans and the inflation forecast that we have not changed and are part of the WEO.  And also, the official documents of the program. 

    I want to say a few words on this article on the pressure to the Board and the words from our Managing Director.  Let me start from the second part.  Today the MD said something about this and said something very simple.  Elections are for the Argentine people, not for us. So, it’s very clear to me, the message.  I also can say that what she was underscoring was the importance of policy continuity to support Argentina’s stability and recovery.  Her comments reflect the economic opportunities ahead and the importance for the government to stay the course implementing those.  It’s not a view on the political process or its outcome.  In fact, the Fund never takes positions on this. 

    In terms of this article, what I can say basically is that all the decisions that the IMF-supported programs are taking on — are done by the Executive Board based on what staff, technical assessment and in line with Fund policies produce.  The program for Argentina was approved by the Executive Board following a very rigorous evaluation.  Lot of engagement from staff to the Board throughout the process and also reflecting the authorities very strong track record and commitment to the stabilization and to reform.   

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Okay, we are going to take a final question, and it will be online. 

    QUESTIONER:  Mr. Valdez, you talk about the fiscal consolidation in some countries in this year.  In Chile, the Ministry of Finance, despite the fact that the Ministry committed to a new adjustment this year, say that it will not meet the selling cost fiscal target again and they have to change it.  Is this a concern for you?  The fiscal situation in Chile, how well prepared do you see Chile today for this scenario, global slowdown and mainly worsening in the next years?  Thank you. 

    MR. VALDES: The view from the Fund is that after the slight widening of the fiscal deficit in Chile last year, it will be very important to decisively bring the deficit back to a downward path.  The authorities’ commitment to do this in 2025 and their medium-term strategy and also adhering to their debt ceiling is very commendable.  Now, given the worst starting position for this year, it looks appropriate to smooth the adjustment.  Okay, so to move a bit the calendar.  Nevertheless, we see that with the new target of 1.5 percent, they will need measures of around 0.5 percent to be identified. 

    They just announced yesterday measures.  We have been discussing with authorities those measures.  But we need some time to fully understand the size and the timing of those effects.  These announcements of corrective fiscal actions are clearly a step towards this goal and are welcome.  But at the same time, we need to assess them more carefully.  And also given the context of uncertainty, it will be important for fiscal policy to remain very agile and respond further if the revenue and expenditure measures that are being taken disappoint.

     MS. ZIEGLER:  Those are all the questions that we have time for today.  I want to thank you, Rodrigo, Ana, and Nigel.  If you have any other questions and thank everyone for joining us in person and on the line.  And if you have any other questions, please be sure to send them by email to media@imf.org.  Thank you again and have a good afternoon. 

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Julie Ziegler

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/26/tr042525-western-hemisphere-press-briefing-transcript

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Press Briefing Transcript: Western Hemisphere Department, Spring Meetings 2025

    Source: International Monetary Fund

    April 26, 2025

    Participants:

    Mr. Rodrigo Valdes, Director of Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund

    Ms. Ana Corbacho, Deputy Director of Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund

    Mr. Nigel Chalk, Deputy Director Western Hemisphere Department, International Monetary Fund

    Moderator: 

    Ms. Julie Ziegler, Senior Communications Officer, International Monetary Fund

     

     

    MS. ZIEGLER: Good afternoon and welcome.  This is the press briefing for the Regional Economic Outlook for the Western Hemisphere.  I am Julie Ziegler with the Communications Department.  And let me start by introducing our panel today.  To my left is Rodrigo Valdes, who is the Director of the Western Hemisphere Department, and he is joined by Deputy Directors in the Western Hemisphere Department as well, Ana Corbacho and Nigel Chalk. 

    We are going to begin with opening remarks from Rodrigo before taking your questions.  So, Rodrigo, the floor is yours. 

    MR. VALDES: Well, thank you, Julie.  Good afternoon, everybody.  Welcome to this briefing on Latin America and the Caribbean.  Before starting, let me express my sympathy to all the affected people by the recent earthquake in Ecuador. 

    So, I will frame my remarks today around two key themes.  Okay.  One is the uncertainties that we have to navigate, and second, the certainties that we can build upon.  Importantly, these two topics, these two themes, converge in one single message: and that it’s imperative for the countries in the region to continue strengthening economic resilience. 

    Let me first summarize how we see the economic outlook for the region.  In line with the changes that you have seen in the global context since our last Regional Economic Outlook in October last year, we expect average growth in the region to moderate.  Specifically, for Latin America and the Caribbean, on average, we expect growth to slow down from 2.4 percent last year to 2 percent this year, 2025 — against 2.5 that we were expecting six months ago.  After that, we expect growth will edge back to 2.4 percent. 

    Activity has remained largely driven by consumption in the region amid resilient labor markets.  However, slower global growth, elevated uncertainty, the impact of tariffs and tighter domestic policies in some countries will weight on growth.

    Behind this average, there is significant heterogeneity.  Following tight macro policies and, of course, being more affected by U.S. trade policies, Mexico’s GDP is expected to decline slightly this year.  We also continue to expect a relevant deceleration in Brazil driven by, let me underscore, appropriate tighter policies in Argentina and Ecuador, which have programs supported by the IMF, we expect an important rebound this year.

    On the inflation front, convergence to targets last year was relatively slow, slower than before.  Fading global disinflation was behind this and also effects in the region that was depreciating.  We expect though that the declining inflation should continue, although most countries will not reach their targets before 2026. 

    Today, as you know, we have a landscape that is shaped by very complex phenomena that are interplaying, and tariffs, value chains, disruptions, commodity price movements, financial market volatility and policy uncertainty are all together.  The impact of these factors on growth is relatively clear; it is negative, although a few countries may enjoy some trade diversion and cushion this. 

    However, although [that] part of [the] activity is clear, the inflation outcome is quite ambiguous and will depend on how these factors unfold in each country’s specific context.  [It] also depends on domestic risks, such as potential fiscal slippages.  For example, while tariffs are a negative demand shock in tariff countries or the region, pushing prices down, value chain disruptions create negative supply shocks for the world economy with an opposite effect on prices.  And even though tariffs to the region are relatively low in comparison to the rest, the acceleration in global growth could affect commodity demand, prices, and, indirectly, inflation through exchange rate depreciation.  With this in mind, we see downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation, although the balance on the latter or inflation will depend on how global developments play out. 

    Let me move to policies, what countries can do in this environment.  In our last Regional Economic Outlook, we called for the need to rebalance the policy mix.  That meant basically tighter fiscal to make space for looser monetary policy.  This remains broadly relevant, although with greater emphasis on the need to strengthen public finances.  At the margin, certainty is very important in this juncture.  This is not the moment to alter policy frameworks or abandon fiscal plans.  Many countries have very good policy frameworks.  It is the moment to stick with them. 

    It is important to allow exchange rates to absorb shocks when fundamentals move, and also to use the IMF Integrated Policy Framework as a guide, perhaps, for interventions to address financial stability risks from disorderly market movements.  Thus far, the regional markets have continued to function effectively. 

    Now, in terms of monetary policy, in the last few quarters we have seen quite a bit of a heterogeneity in the region.  Some central banks are hiking, some other central banks are being easing.  Future actions should carefully strike a balance between durably bringing inflation back to targets, but at the same time trying to avoid an undue economic contraction.  Incoming data will be critical, while central bank independence, as you have seen throughout this week, remains a key anchor to inflation expectations.

    What remains certain is the imperative to rebuild fiscal buffers and policy buffers in general.  There is high public debt in several places and an unfavorable combination of rising financing cost and low growth.  Thus, we believe that fiscal consolidation should continue without delays, at least for now, while protecting priority public spending and social spending. 

    And, of course, there is this long challenge of lifting the very low potential growth that we have in the region.  So structural reforms continue to be urgent.  This will require first strengthening governance and security.  Security has been a topic in the region for long.  Second, enhancing productivity by improving the business environment, striving for policy predictability, and reducing informality.  And third, fostering greater intraregional trade. 

    I would also like to mention that since the last time we met in October, Suriname successfully completed the last review of its program.  It wasn’t an easy program at the beginning but was a very successful one and ended very well.  And we launched new programs with El Salvador and Argentina.  We continue supporting a number of other countries with either precautionary or drawing arrangements. 

    Before finishing, let me go back to my starting point.  In a world marked by uncertainty, the case for reinforcing macroeconomic frameworks that work well and increasing economic resilience and growth opportunities is clear.  For our part, we will continue supporting countries in the region, closely engaging through policy advice, capacity development, and financial support if needed. 

    With this, we are happy to take your questions. 

    MS. ZIEGLER: Thank you, Rodrigo.  So, before we take your questions, let me quickly run through some housekeeping items.  First, just a reminder that this is on the record and that we also have simultaneous translation in Spanish and Portuguese.  And second, if you do ask a question and if you are called on, please make sure to state your name and your affiliation before asking your question.  Third, if you are joining us online, please keep your camera on.  We won’t be able to take your question if we cannot see you.  And finally, please keep your questions brief.  We will try to get to as many as we can in the time that we have today. 

    And so now we are going to kick it off with questions, and let’s start with questions, groups of questions on the region.  That would be questions on Latin America, the Caribbean, or the entire Western Hemisphere.  And we will come to country specific questions after that. 

    So, may I ask, does anyone have a question on the region?  Woman in the red. 

    QUESTIONER: Hi, Mr. Rodrigo.  Can you share with us if the authorities of U.S. have been participating in the meeting committee?  Have the members spoken with Mr. Vincent?  And I had another question. 

    MS. ZIEGLER: Is that a question for the region though?  We’re starting with the — with the region first.  Not country specific questions. 

    QUESTIONER: I thought that I could do it for all the — it’s for all the regions.  But if you don’t think —

    MS. ZIEGLER: It’s okay.  Do you have a broader question there for the region? 

    QUESTIONER: Yes, I had another question.  I want to know your outlook about the immigration policies in U.S. and the impact on the remittances to our region.  Thank you.

    MS. ZIEGLER: And I have a question.  While we are on that, let me just go to a question that we had online from Efe, which is, you’ve said that this is not the moment to alter policy frameworks or abandon fiscal plans.  Is this message addressed to any country in particular?  And you also consider that what remains certain is the imperative to build policy buffers.  Is the region lagging behind in this respect? 

    So, is there any other?  I’ll take one more on the region.  On the region? 

    QUESTIONER: It is on the region, but it’s with a little country in it.  I wanted to know what role does the IMF see Guyana and Suriname, major oil-producing countries, now playing in ensuring Caribbean economic growth and stability while satisfying the demands by ordinary people in those oil-producing nations for increased wages and salaries?  And at the same time, what advice would you give to temper spending and borrowing using that resource as leverage? 

    MR. VALDES: Okay, so let me start by what authorities met, et cetera.  I think it is a question for the authorities, not for us.  So, I would prefer that you go directly to the authorities. 

    Your question on immigration is very important.  Our baseline considers an important decline on immigration, of immigration towards the U.S, okay.  Basically, that undocumented immigration goes basically to zero.  There is documented immigration still, and there are some people being sent back.  That has an effect first for the U.S. economy that maybe Nigel would like to add a bit of color on that.  What is the implication?  But also has, as you mentioned, an effect in the region.  And this is particularly important for Central America and Mexico, and if I have to say, more Central America than Mexico, given the relative size. 

    And here one issue is remittances.  We expect remittances to decline going forward.  How much is a very open question.  In the short run, we’re seeing the opposite.  Remittances are increasing, but we see that mostly as temporary.  So this will be a challenge for the economists to manage.  Since this is a shock that is probably more persistent, probably you will have to adjust to that shock.  It will have effects on consumption and probably also in economic activity. 

    There is also a challenge of absorbing people who would have migrated otherwise or that are coming back.  That’s also an opportunity.  There are countries which there is a shortage of people to work, but labor. rkets will be attuned to this.  There are a few countries that already have programs to reinsert people, that is correct.  We support that view. 

    Let me move to the second question and at the end I will go to Nigel, on basically the immigration question in the U.S.  Look, this message is not for any particular country.  I would put it the opposite.  It doesn’t apply to very few countries.  I don’t want to mention those.  But in general, in the region, we have seen some delays in fiscal consolidation in the last couple of years.  In many, many countries we have debt levels, debt ratios that are back to the peak after COVID.  So, after one year, when they decline, then they are back.  So, there is an important case to continue, at least in the short run, with this.  Are countries lagging the rest of the world?  The issue of fiscal is very generalized in many, many countries, not only Latin America, but I would say that that doesn’t make the homework less important and less urgent. 

    Finally, on the Caribbean and the questions, let me phrase it, and perhaps Ana would like to add on this.  But Suriname and Guyana are two countries that are living through important discoveries of oil, and that is a very challenging situation.  You probably know that there are lessons in history that these discoveries, or more generally natural resources, can be a blessing or can be a curse depending on how you manage that. 

    We are seeing very good management in Guyana.  Now. Suriname has to establish the framework for this to work well for them.  And for the region in general, of course, two countries, one country is already growing double digits and more, and the other one will be growing fast.  And those, of course, will be important for the region. 

    With that, let me go to Nigel, and perhaps Ana would like to add something on the Caribbean too. 

    MR. CHALK: On the immigration question in the U.S.  So, we have built into our forecast a significant decline in immigration flows into the U.S.  To give you a sense of magnitude, around the last couple of years, we have seen somewhere between three and three and a half million new foreign workers coming, foreign individuals coming into the U.S.  Only around 20 percent of those come through the formal immigration channels, green cards, and formal visas.  So our expectation, judging by what we can see on the statistics so far in border encounters, is that there’ll be a significant drop of that group that’s not coming through those formal channels.  And we essentially assume that’s going to go close to zero on a net basis. 

    So, what does that do to the U.S. economy?  I would point to a couple of things.  Probably the first important thing is in labor markets.  That inflow of foreign workers over the past few years has been very important in terms of helping the U.S. labor markets equilibrate, reducing wage growth, and then ultimately bringing down inflation.  So, it’s been an important disinflationary force that’s helped the Federal Reserve move inflation back towards their target.  That disinflationary force is going to go away, we expect, in the next couple of years. 

    Secondly, that group of individuals contributes to demand in the U.S. economy.  So, they come here, they need housing, they consume.  So that is going to provide a drag as a headwind on the demand side.  We think the supply-side forces are going to probably be the more dominant ones.  And we particularly see that a lot of that immigrant foreign labor group is concentrated in a few sectors.  So, you can think about retail, construction, agriculture.  And so, we are expecting we’ll probably see more tight labor markets in many of those sectors.

    MS. CORBACHO: Let me make a few specific remarks on Guyana.  Guyana has been the fastest-growing economy not only in the Caribbean but in the whole world, with average growth rates of 47 percent between 2022 and 2024.  We expect Guyana to continue to have very fast growth rates in an environment of macroeconomic stability.  In the current global uncertain environment, maintaining this macroeconomic stability is very critical, as well as continuing to strengthen resilience to shocks.  This includes shocks from oil prices, as well as continue to build very strong institutions so that the benefits of the oil wealth can be shared across generations.  Currently, all revenues are already helping Guyana address very significant development needs.  The Sovereign Wealth Fund has about 13 percent of GDP in buffers, and this is going to be very crucial to mitigate the impact of any global shocks.  And over time, we have emphasized the need to gradually close fiscal deficits again to preserve that wealth for the future.  Thank you.

    MS. ZIEGLER: Great.  So any other, just maybe a question or two.  Anyone?  Last in the region?  Okay, the gentleman in the blue shirt in the aisle. 

    QUESTIONER: Good afternoon.  Eastern Caribbean related questions.  Regarding tariffs, what recommendation would the IMF give to the small island states in the OECS, more specifically, or small island states in the Caribbean to mitigate against the potential fallout from the U.S. trade tariffs?  And a related question.  What should member states of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union do — considering the potential effect of the dollar failure — as the Eastern Caribbean currency is currently pegged to the U.S. dollar?  And finally, climate change.  What should these small island states within the Eastern Caribbean do to protect themselves in light of the United Nations, the United States, and other developed nations cutting back when it comes to climate change assistance? 

    MS. ZIEGLER: Okay, maybe one last question and then we can move on to country questions.  Does anybody else have a question on the region?  Yes, please.  The woman there.

    QUESTIONER: Of course, inflation it is a thing, but in the Western Hemisphere it’s not really versus other regions.  So, I would really want to know if we should concentrate on debt, fiscal risks, or we should concentrate on growth?  Of course, the ideal thing is that they come together.  But right now, sometimes it feels like it is one thing or another.  Thank you. 

    MS. ZIEGLER: Anyone else?  The gentleman there.  And then we will move on to country questions after this. 

    QUESTIONER: Hi, what challenges and opportunities does the IMF see for the Caribbean countries in light of the uncertainties created by the new administration in Washington, given the historic links between the United States and the Caribbean in trade remittances and as a major tourism source market. 

    MR. VALDES:  Okay, perhaps I can kind of start with a few ideas on the Caribbean and perhaps Ana would like to add some note.  But first, of course, tariffs.  And the global cycle is a headwind for tourism in the Caribbean.  So, what to do with this?  Basically, we think that it’s very important to keep the macroeconomy as stable as possible.  And that means that countries which have lot of homework in terms of rebuilding fiscal space, they have to continue doing it.  The risks of not doing that is to face at the end a disorderly macroeconomy.  And that at the end of the day is much worse.  We have to recognize that it may be raining, but it’s reality.  It is reality that we will have this cycle. 

    Now, the data we have seen and the authorities view on the same is that tourism is usually made reservations in advance, and we haven’t seen yet a change or cancellations of the size that could produce big problems.  Second point, we are not worried at all about the peg in the ECCU.  They have a very good ratio in reserves to money.  It is important to keep consistent policies for that.  Natural resources, sorry not natural.  The problem of climate change and the Caribbean. The MD said something very important.  And I would like just to mention that.  The Caribbean is special when you compare with other countries because basically natural disasters are macro-critical and very close every day.  Therefore, it is important to work towards building a structure of financing and infrastructure to be able to basically confront these problems.  Well, we are there to work with the countries on that. 

    Then I move to the question of supporting growth or adjusting.  The first thing is to notice that the way this shock is playing out is still very uncertain.  And I would say that part of the discussions we had with authorities is that before deciding actively what to do, we have to wait a bit more and understand better.  That is the very first point.  Second point, there are countries that may have some space to react fiscally if needed, but many others in reality do not have that space.  But working again in the fiscal risk side opens up space for monetary policy. 

    It is very different for a central bank to face an economy where fiscal risks are increasing, are becoming more and more complex compared to another one where the fiscal continues to adjust and there’s no problems of fiscal credibility.  Therefore, we see that this call that we had before of rebalancing monetary and fiscal policies continues to be very important.  Ana, would you like to add on the Caribbean? 

    MS. CORBACHO: Rodrigo addressed already the priorities of course to build fiscal buffers, stay the course on improving fiscal positions as well as continuing to work on addressing resilience to natural catastrophes and extreme weather events.  I wanted to touch on a third very important area of policy efforts.  When it has to do with structural reforms, we expect the Caribbean to converge to a level of medium-term growth or potential growth that is quite low.  This is an agenda that is long standing and the current conditions of uncertainty and the need to boost growth and productivity becomes even more urgent right now.  This has of course the area of resilience, growth and productivity, including enhancing human capital and expanding access to finance.  And particularly in the current environment seeking synergies from intra-regional cooperation and integration where the Caribbean can really expand scope for capacity by working together across states. 

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Let’s turn to country questions now.  The woman in the green in the middle there.

    QUESTIONER:  Thank you for having my question.  Rodrigo, you mentioned that level [inaudible] is being back to [inaudible] COVID.  This is the Brazilian case, right.  And given the complex global landscape, what are the IMF recommendations to Brazil regarding fiscal and monetary policies?  And do you believe that the early debate about the presidential election next year impacts, you know, policies, activity, or anything else?  Thank you.

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Okay, let me take another question.  So, I have two questions about my country and thank you for your condolence because of the earthquake today.  I would like to know is there any answer or did you finish already the revision of the program?  And we were waiting for that last week, I think because IMF says it’s going to be an answer after the elections.  So, is there any results?  Is it possible to have the money this week or this month, when it’s going to happen?  And the second one is about the Ecuadorian requests for RSF program.  I know we were waiting about that.  The government said it is going to be possible to have that this year.  But I don’t know if any updates on that.

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Okay, do we have any other in Ecuador in particular?  Anybody?  Okay, let us take those and we’ll move on to other countries in the next round. 

    MR. VALDES:  Okay, let me again, Ana, will may want to add on Brazil, but let me start from the following.  First, elections happen in all the countries of the region.  It is normal to have these cycles.  There is nothing special from that.  Second, as you mentioned, Brazil has a fiscal challenge.  The authorities are very well aware of this, and they are taking measures for that to stabilize debt and eventually also to have the debt ratio in a downward path in the future.  Of course, one thing is to have that and then is the measures.  And the discussions with them is always about whether we can have more measures for ensure that this will happen.  But I would like to say that they have been taking measures; their fiscal rule this year with the objective that they have on the primary is very important to be met and we support that. 

    In terms of monetary policy in Brazil, the central bank has been tightening policies appropriately basically to bring inflation back to target.  As I mentioned at the beginning, giving certainty in this environment is very important.  And part of the certainties that many countries have, Brazil included, is to have a central bank that is committed to its target and also acts with full independence. 

    On Ecuador, we had an election not long ago, two weeks ago.  So, it’s not that things are not as fast as we would like.  No.  So,we had to expect to wait for the election to happen.  We are in conversations with the authorities.  We have had many meetings these days here.  There’s good progress in the discussions, but we cannot give you a precise date of [the] next steps.  No, we are working on that.  We hope to move fast. ON RSF, the RSF was a possibility for the authorities, but they have decided to postpone it for a while. They haven’t decided to officially ask for it later, but it’s a possibility. But with the purpose of facilitating this review which comes on the heels of very good performance of the program. That is what I can say. The authorities have been implementing strongly their program. At the same time, we have news — the world, lower oil prices — which need to be factored in the program. And that is what we are doing.

    MS. CORBACHO:  Let me start with a brief addition on Ecuador that the dialogue with the authorities continues to be extremely productive and very close.  We are taking stock of the implications of global developments on the macroeconomic framework for Ecuador.  And we continue to advance in securing the second review of the EFF arrangement.  We will come back on specific dates as soon as we have more information to give you to.

    MS. ZIEGLER: I am going to read a question online that we have from Ion Group.  It is on El Salvador.  Is El Salvador shifting around bitcoin from one account to the next?  Is that how they are adding to its bitcoin reserves versus straight out purchases?  And maybe we’ll take one other question from the, from the audience on a country matter. Okay, go ahead.  I know that’s Argentina over there.  We’ll come to Argentina.  You’ll get your own section. 

    QUESTIONER:  Thank you everyone.   Why the contribution the Monetary Fund to Honduras and the other country of the region in the context confusion and trade tension.  Additionally, what is the factor we leverage economic growth this year and the Honduras economy. 

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Okay, let us take those and [the] next round will be Argentina. 

    MR. VALDES:  So first let me start from Honduras.  Honduras just had a staff-level agreement with the Fund.  That means that we are ready to go to the Board for the review of the program, the second review.  Things have moved very well for the country.  It is an example of an old say of the Fund that is you repair your roof when it’s sunny outside.  And they took advantage of times that things were calmer, and they moved policies, both structural aspects and importantly macro aspects.  And today are in a much better position to withstand the global cycle. 

    They improve their reserves that they have, they mobilize resources from other IFIs.  They were able to lower inflation, and they have been growing pretty fast and also making progress in their fiscal adjustments.  So, I would say it’s a good case of preparedness.  So, the country is in a much better position now than it was before.

    In terms of El Salvador, let me say that I can confirm that they continue to comply with their commitment of non-accumulation of bitcoin by the overall fiscal sector, which is the performance criteria that we have.  But on top of that, I think this is very important for the discussion in El Salvador.  The program of El Salvador is not about bitcoin.  It’s much more, much deeper in structural reforms, in terms of governance, in terms of transparency.  There is a lot of progress there.  And also, on fiscal.  And authorities have been making a lot of progress implementing the reform. 

    We are preparing the first review of the program now.  This is, as you know, a 40-month program with 1.4 billion but what the money that they can mobilize from other IFIs, it is about $3.5 billion.  It has an important fiscal adjustment that the authorities are implementing.  At the end, this program is expected to create the conditions for stronger private investment and stronger growth in El Salvador.  Taking advantage, basically, or a much better macro on top of the dividends that the immense improvement in security will yield.

    MS. ZIEGLER: And now we will move to Argentina and we are going to take.  We are going to compile questions, and I will also, once we go into the — the questions in the room.  I am going to take a question online from [Liliana] as well.  So please feel free. Whoever would like, I will start on the aisle here. 

    QUESTIONER: The Argentina staff report mentions contingency planning in case of an external shock.  Wondering if you are expecting an external shock this year.  And in that case, what are the policy changes that you would expect Argentina to take to mitigate?

    QUESTIONER:    There’s been reports of pressure from the management to some of the Board directors in order to approve the IMF new program.  I was wondering if you could comment on that and also on the remarks that were made yesterday by Ms. Georgieva.  She said that Argentina should not derail from change, speaking about the elections.  And the opposition has accused her of meddling with the national elections. 

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Okay, any more Argentina questions in the room?  We are going to go to Webex, and we will take a question. 

    QUESTIONER:  Thank you for taking my questions.  And I have two — what inflation rates does the IMF project for this year?  I mean end of period and for the next year.  And the second question is, what are the potential risks facing Argentina’s economy program?

    MS. ZIEGLER: Okay, we’ll leave it there. 

    MR. VALDES: Okay, thank you.  Look, from the first questions and the two last questions, I will invite you to look at the Staff Report.  Really, I don’t have anything to add on.  We don’t work, we don’t change the view in a week of a country.  So, what is there really is the contingencies plans and the inflation forecast that we have not changed and are part of the WEO.  And also, the official documents of the program. 

    I want to say a few words on this article on the pressure to the Board and the words from our Managing Director.  Let me start from the second part.  Today the MD said something about this and said something very simple.  Elections are for the Argentine people, not for us. So, it’s very clear to me, the message.  I also can say that what she was underscoring was the importance of policy continuity to support Argentina’s stability and recovery.  Her comments reflect the economic opportunities ahead and the importance for the government to stay the course implementing those.  It’s not a view on the political process or its outcome.  In fact, the Fund never takes positions on this. 

    In terms of this article, what I can say basically is that all the decisions that the IMF-supported programs are taking on — are done by the Executive Board based on what staff, technical assessment and in line with Fund policies produce.  The program for Argentina was approved by the Executive Board following a very rigorous evaluation.  Lot of engagement from staff to the Board throughout the process and also reflecting the authorities very strong track record and commitment to the stabilization and to reform.   

    MS. ZIEGLER:  Okay, we are going to take a final question, and it will be online. 

    QUESTIONER:  Mr. Valdez, you talk about the fiscal consolidation in some countries in this year.  In Chile, the Ministry of Finance, despite the fact that the Ministry committed to a new adjustment this year, say that it will not meet the selling cost fiscal target again and they have to change it.  Is this a concern for you?  The fiscal situation in Chile, how well prepared do you see Chile today for this scenario, global slowdown and mainly worsening in the next years?  Thank you. 

    MR. VALDES: The view from the Fund is that after the slight widening of the fiscal deficit in Chile last year, it will be very important to decisively bring the deficit back to a downward path.  The authorities’ commitment to do this in 2025 and their medium-term strategy and also adhering to their debt ceiling is very commendable.  Now, given the worst starting position for this year, it looks appropriate to smooth the adjustment.  Okay, so to move a bit the calendar.  Nevertheless, we see that with the new target of 1.5 percent, they will need measures of around 0.5 percent to be identified. 

    They just announced yesterday measures.  We have been discussing with authorities those measures.  But we need some time to fully understand the size and the timing of those effects.  These announcements of corrective fiscal actions are clearly a step towards this goal and are welcome.  But at the same time, we need to assess them more carefully.  And also given the context of uncertainty, it will be important for fiscal policy to remain very agile and respond further if the revenue and expenditure measures that are being taken disappoint.

     MS. ZIEGLER:  Those are all the questions that we have time for today.  I want to thank you, Rodrigo, Ana, and Nigel.  If you have any other questions and thank everyone for joining us in person and on the line.  And if you have any other questions, please be sure to send them by email to media@imf.org.  Thank you again and have a good afternoon. 

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Julie Ziegler

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Exequial Mass for the late Roman Pontiff Francis

    Source: The Holy See

    At 10.00 this morning, on the parvis of the Patriarchal Vatican Basilica, the Exequial Holy Mass for the late Roman Pontiff Francis took place.
    The Exequial Liturgy was concelebrated by the Cardinals and the Patriarchs of the Eastern Churches. The Dean of the College of Cardinals, His Eminence Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re, presided over the Concelebration.
    At the end of the solemn Eucharistic Celebration, the Ultima Commendatio (last recommendation) and the Valedictio (farewell) took place. The Cardinal Vicar for the diocese of Rome led the supplication of the Church of Rome. The Patriarchs, Major Archbishops and Metropolitans of the “sui iuris” Eastern Churches then proceeded in front of the coffin for the supplication of the Eastern Churches. The Cardinal Dean then sprinkled the coffin of the late Pontiff with holy water and incensed it.
    The coffin of the Holy Father Francis was transferred to the Basilica of Saint Mary Major for interment.
    The following is homily delivered by His Eminence Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re:

    Homily of His Eminence Cardinal Giovanni Battista Re
    In this majestic Saint Peter’s Square, where Pope Francis celebrated the Eucharist so many times and presided over great gatherings over the past twelve years, we are gathered with sad hearts in prayer around his mortal remains. Yet, we are sustained by the certainty of faith, which assures us that human existence does not end in the tomb, but in the Father’s house, in a life of happiness that will know no end.
    On behalf of the College of Cardinals, I cordially thank all of you for your presence. With deep emotion, I extend respectful greetings and heartfelt thanks to the Heads of State, Heads of Government and Official Delegations who have come from many countries to express their affection, veneration and esteem for our late Holy Father.
    The outpouring of affection that we have witnessed in recent days following his passing from this earth into eternity tells us how much the profound pontificate of Pope Francis touched minds and hearts.
    The final image we have of him, which will remain etched in our memory, is that of last Sunday, Easter Sunday, when Pope Francis, despite his serious health problems, wanted to give us his blessing from the balcony of Saint Peter’s Basilica. He then came down to this Square to greet the large crowd gathered for the Easter Mass while riding in the open-top Popemobile.
    With our prayers, we now entrust the soul of our beloved Pontiff to God, that he may grant him eternal happiness in the bright and glorious gaze of his immense love.
    We are enlightened and guided by the passage of the Gospel, in which the very voice of Christ resounded, asking the first of the Apostles: “Peter, do you love me more than these?” Peter’s answer was prompt and sincere: “Lord, you know everything; you know that I love you!” Jesus then entrusted him with the great mission: “Feed my sheep.” This will be the constant task of Peter and his successors, a service of love in the footsteps of Christ, our Master and Lord, who “came not to be served but to serve, and to give his life a ransom for many” (Mk 10:45).
    Despite his frailty and suffering towards the end, Pope Francis chose to follow this path of self-giving until the last day of his earthly life. He followed in the footsteps of his Lord, the Good Shepherd, who loved his sheep to the point of giving his life for them. And he did so with strength and serenity, close to his flock, the Church of God, mindful of the words of Jesus quoted by the Apostle Paul: “It is more blessed to give than to receive” (Acts 20:35).
    When Cardinal Bergoglio was elected by the Conclave on 13 March 2013 to succeed Pope Benedict XVI, he already had many years of experience in religious life in the Society of Jesus and, above all, was enriched by twenty-one years of pastoral ministry in the Archdiocese of Buenos Aires, first as Auxiliary, then as Coadjutor and, above all, as Archbishop.
    The decision to take the name Francis immediately appeared to indicate the pastoral plan and style on which he wanted to base his pontificate, seeking inspiration from the spirit of Saint Francis of Assisi.
    He maintained his temperament and form of pastoral leadership, and through his resolute personality, immediately made his mark on the governance of the Church. He established direct contact with individuals and peoples, eager to be close to everyone, with a marked attention to those in difficulty, giving himself without measure, especially to the marginalised, the least among us. He was a Pope among the people, with an open heart towards everyone. He was also a Pope attentive to the signs of the times and what the Holy Spirit was awakening in the Church.
    With his characteristic vocabulary and language, rich in images and metaphors, he always sought to shed light on the problems of our time with the wisdom of the Gospel. He did so by offering a response guided by the light of faith and encouraging us to live as Christians amid the challenges and contradictions in recent years, which he loved to describe as an “epochal change.”
    He had great spontaneity and an informal way of addressing everyone, even those far from the Church.
    Rich in human warmth and deeply sensitive to today’s challenges, Pope Francis truly shared the anxieties, sufferings and hopes of this time of globalisation. He gave of himself by comforting and encouraging us with a message capable of reaching people’s hearts in a direct and immediate way.
    His charisma of welcome and listening, combined with a manner of behaviour in keeping with today’s sensitivities, touched hearts and sought to reawaken moral and spiritual sensibilities.
    Evangelisation was the guiding principle of his pontificate. With a clear missionary vision, he spread the joy of the Gospel, which was the title of his first Apostolic Exhortation, Evangelii gaudium. It is a joy that fills the hearts of all those who entrust themselves to God with confidence and hope.
    The guiding thread of his mission was also the conviction that the Church is a home for all, a home with its doors always open. He often used the image of the Church as a “field hospital” after a battle in which many were wounded; a Church determined to take care of the problems of people and the great anxieties that tear the contemporary world apart; a Church capable of bending down to every person, regardless of their beliefs or condition, and healing their wounds.
    His gestures and exhortations in favour of refugees and displaced persons are countless. His insistence on working on behalf of the poor was constant.
    It is significant that Pope Francis’ first journey was to Lampedusa, an island that symbolises the tragedy of emigration, with thousands of people drowning at sea. In the same vein was his trip to Lesbos, together with the Ecumenical Patriarch and the Archbishop of Athens, as well as the celebration of a Mass on the border between Mexico and the United States during his journey to Mexico.
    Of his 47 arduous Apostolic Journeys, the one to Iraq in 2021, defying every risk, will remain particularly memorable. That difficult Apostolic Journey was a balm on the open wounds of the Iraqi people, who had suffered so much from the inhuman actions of ISIS. It was also an important trip for interreligious dialogue, another significant dimension of his pastoral work. With his 2024 Apostolic Journey to four countries in Asia-Oceania, the Pope reached “the most peripheral periphery of the world.”
    Pope Francis always placed the Gospel of mercy at the centre, repeatedly emphasising that God never tires of forgiving us. He always forgives, whatever the situation might be of the person who asks for forgiveness and returns to the right path.
    He called for the Extraordinary Jubilee of Mercy in order to highlight that mercy is “the heart of the Gospel.”
    Mercy and the joy of the Gospel are two key words for Pope Francis.
    In contrast to what he called “the culture of waste,” he spoke of the culture of encounter and solidarity. The theme of fraternity ran through his entire pontificate with vibrant tones. In his Encyclical Letter Fratelli tutti, he wanted to revive a worldwide aspiration to fraternity, because we are all children of the same Father who is in heaven. He often forcefully reminded us that we all belong to the same human family.
    In 2019, during his trip to the United Arab Emirates, Pope Francis signed A Document on Human Fraternity for World Peace and Living Together, recalling the common fatherhood of God.
    Addressing men and women throughout the world, in his Encyclical Letter Laudato si’ he drew attention to our duties and shared responsibility for our common home, stating, “No one is saved alone.”
    Faced with the raging wars of recent years, with their inhuman horrors and countless deaths and destruction, Pope Francis incessantly raised his voice imploring peace and calling for reason and honest negotiation to find possible solutions. War, he said, results in the death of people and the destruction of homes, hospitals and schools. War always leaves the world worse than it was before: it is always a painful and tragic defeat for everyone.
    “Build bridges, not walls” was an exhortation he repeated many times, and his service of faith as Successor of the Apostle Peter always was linked to the service of humanity in all its dimensions.
    Spiritually united with all of Christianity, we are here in large numbers to pray for Pope Francis, that God may welcome him into the immensity of his love.
    Pope Francis used to conclude his speeches and meetings by saying, “Do not forget to pray for me.”
    Dear Pope Francis, we now ask you to pray for us. May you bless the Church, bless Rome, and bless the whole world from heaven as you did last Sunday from the balcony of this Basilica in a final embrace with all the people of God, but also embrace humanity that seeks the truth with a sincere heart and holds high the torch of hope.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Video: ‘Wild-to-wild’ Jaguar Release & The Origin of Microfinance | WEF | Top Stories Week

    Source: World Economic Forum (video statements)

    This week’s top stories of the week include:

    0:14 These horses help prevent wildfires —The region of Galicia has always been prone to wildfires. It’s also home to ‘las bestas’. Europe’s largest herd of wild horses. These animals are deeply embedded in the local culture. The bestas also play a crucial role in curbing Galicia’s wildfires.

    2:31 How meditation can benefit workers — David Ko is the CEO of Calm, an app for meditation, sleep and stress management. It has been downloaded more than 175 million times worldwide. Meditation sounds like a big, weighty concept, Ko says but it doesn’t need to be.

    6:21 Argentina’s ‘wild-to-wild’ jaguar release — Mini is a 2-year-old jaguar born in the wild and the first ever to be ‘translocated’ or moved for conservation purposes. Mini was captured in late 2024 and she’s just been released in El Impenetrable National Park where rewilding experts hope to boost jaguar numbers and bridge the gap between scattered groups.

    7:53 The origin of microfinance — In 1974 Muhammad Yunus was an economics lecturer at Chittagong University. Yunus set out to help those affected by poverty and famine. Today, the bank he founded provides micro-loans to 10.7 million people from more than 2,500 branches across Bangladesh.

    _______________________________________________________________________

    The World Economic Forum is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation. The Forum engages the foremost political, business, cultural and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. We believe that progress happens by bringing together people from all walks of life who have the drive and the influence to make positive change.

    World Economic Forum Website ► http://www.weforum.org/
    Facebook ► https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/
    YouTube ► https://www.youtube.com/wef
    Instagram ► https://www.instagram.com/worldeconomicforum/ 
    Twitter ► https://twitter.com/wef
    LinkedIn ► https://www.linkedin.com/company/world-economic-forum
    TikTok ► https://www.tiktok.com/@worldeconomicforum
    Flipboard ► https://flipboard.com/@WEF

    #WorldEconomicForum

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7oKToeJq7jI

    MIL OSI Video –

  • MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Spokesperson Statement on Colombia

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    April 26, 2025

    Washington, DC: Julie Kozack, Director of Communications at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), issued the following statement today:  

    “From April 26, 2025, Colombia’s continued qualification for the IMF’s Flexible Credit Line (FCL) is contingent on the completion of both the ongoing Article IV consultation (see staff statement issued on April 18, 2025) and a subsequent FCL mid-term review. The FCL arrangement was approved on April 26, 2024, for a two-year period with a mid-term review to assess continued qualification.”

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Jose De Haro

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/25/pr-25124-colombia-imf-spokesperson-statement

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: April 24th, 2025 Heinrich, Colleagues Demand Social Security Head Keep New Mexico’s Offices Open

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for New Mexico Martin Heinrich

    WASHINGTON — U.S. Senator Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.) joined over 100 congressional Democrats in sending a letter to Acting Commissioner of the Social Security Administration (SSA) Leland Dudek to demand that he keep New Mexico’s Social Security field offices open. 

    Multiple reports have revealed that Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) directed SSA to close field offices across the country — only to reverse course after public backlash and deny the plans altogether. Given the lack of transparency surrounding the status of field office operations nationwide, the lawmakers pressed Dudek to ensure that DOGE does not close the offices that so many Social Security beneficiaries rely on for services and assistance.

    Approximately 170,000 Americans visit a Social Security field office for assistance with Social Security benefits each day. In New Mexico, there are 10 Social Security field offices: Rio Rancho, Santa Fe, Gallup, Clovis, Las Cruces, Farmington, Hobbs, and Las Vegas. Musk’s DOGE has threatened to close dozens of these offices across the country as part of its attack on the SSA.

    “[B]eneficiaries need the opportunity to seek assistance from SSA in person…Closing any of these field offices will make it harder for individuals to access their benefits,” wrote the lawmakers.

    The lawmakers include a list of every SSA field office across the country and press Dudek to commit to keeping every single one of them open. 

    The full text of the letter can be read here. 

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Justice Department Announces Two Cases Involving Judicial Misconduct and Obstruction of Law Enforcement

    Source: US State of North Dakota

    Ex-Judge of Dona Ana County Charged with Evidence Tampering and Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Charged with Unlawful Obstruction and Concealment

    The Justice Department today announced federal criminal charges in two separate cases involving the alleged obstruction of federal law enforcement operations and unlawful concealment of individuals residing illegally in the United States.

    “The allegations against Judge Dugan and Judge Cano are serious: no one, least of all a judge, should obstruct law enforcement operations,” said Attorney General Pamela Bondi. “Doing so imperils the safety of our law enforcement officers and undermines the rule of law. The Department of Justice will continue to follow the facts — no one is above the law.”

    “Sanctuary jurisdictions that shield criminal aliens endanger American communities,” said Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche. “This Justice Department will not stand by as local officials put politics over public safety. Reckless sanctuary city policies create a sanctuary for one class—criminals. Those days are over.”

    United States v. Jose Luis Cano; United States v. Nancy Ann Cano, District of New Mexico

    Nancy Ann Cano, 68, and Jose Luis Cano, 67, were arrested yesterday for evidence tampering offenses related to the federal investigation and prosecution against Cristhian Ortega-Lopez, a Venezuelan national residing unlawfully within the United States and with alleged ties to transnational criminal organization Tren de Aragua, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).

    “Judges are responsible for upholding our country’s laws. It is beyond egregious for a former judge and his wife to engage in evidence tampering on behalf of a suspected Tren de Aragua gang member accused of illegally possessing firearms,” said U.S. Attorney Ryan Ellison for the District of New Mexico. “The U.S. Attorney’s Office is committed to dismantling this foreign terrorist organization by disrupting its criminal operations in New Mexico. That starts by prosecuting those who support gang members — including judges.”

    According to court documents, Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) initiated the investigation into Ortega-Lopez after receiving an anonymous tip that the individual was unlawfully present in the United States and in possession of firearms. Subsequent investigation confirmed that the defendant illegally entered the country on Dec. 15, 2023, near Eagle Pass, Texas, and was released shortly thereafter due to overcrowding at the Border Patrol facility.

    Evidence uncovered by federal agents revealed the defendant had posted multiple photos and videos on social media showing him and other illegal aliens handling firearms at a shooting range in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Among the weapons allegedly pictured were a Sig Sauer P365 handgun, an AR-15 rifle equipped with a suppressor, and other high-powered firearms and ammunition. Distinctive tattoos confirmed Ortega-Lopez’s identity in the photos and videos. Further review of his social media activity revealed content suggesting affiliation with Tren de Aragua, including gang-related tattoos, hand gestures, and clothing.

    According to court documents, in January 2025, HSI received a tip that Ortega-Lopez was unlawfully residing with other illegal aliens at a property in Las Cruces owned by Nancy and Jose Cano. Prior to his resignation in March 2025, Jose Cano served as a judge of the Dona Ana County Magistrate Court.

    On Feb. 28, 2025, HSI executed two federal search warrants in connection with the investigation, resulting in the arrest of the Ortega-Lopez and multiple associates, and the seizure of four firearms.

    Ortega-Lopez was arrested for illegal possession of firearms and ammunition. Four firearms believed to be in Ortega-Lopez’s possession, along with three of his cell phones, were seized during the operation. During the search, Ortega-Lopez was permitted to make a phone call before being taken to the Doña Ana County Detention Center (DACDC). He informed agents that a particular phone he wished to use was not among the devices recovered. Video calls from DACDC later showed Nancy Cano holding a black iPhone believed to be Ortega’s fourth phone.

    In a March 7 call with Ortega-Lopez, Nancy Cano used the device to contact a person named “Michelle” via WhatsApp, then facilitated a FaceTime conversation between Michelle and Ortega-Lopez using her personal phone. Additionally, in an April 20 call, Nancy Cano and Ortega-Lopez discussed deleting his Facebook account – a platform where he had previously shared incriminating content, including gang affiliations and images with firearms.

    On April 24, HSI agents executed a subsequent search warrant at the Cano residence to locate the missing cellphone. During questioning, Jose Cano admitted to destroying Ortega’s cellphone by smashing it with a hammer approximately five weeks prior, believing it contained incriminating photos and videos of Ortega with firearms.

    Forensic analysis of the recovered phones revealed messages linked to Ortega’s criminal activities, including affiliations with the Tren de Aragua gang and images of Ortega with firearms.

    Jose Cano is charged with one count of tampering with evidence and Nancy Cano is charged with one count of conspiracy to tamper with evidence. If convicted, the defendants face a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison, three years of supervised released, and up to a  $250,000 fine. A federal district court judge will determine any sentence after considering the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines and other statutory factors.

    Ortega-Lopez is charged with being an unlawful alien in possession of firearms and ammunition, which carries a maximum penalty of 15 years in prison. Despite strong evidence and pre-trial services’ assessment that the defendant poses a serious risk of flight and danger to the community, a U.S. Magistrate Judge ordered the defendant released on conditions. The government has since filed a notice of appeal challenging that decision, citing the defendant’s unlawful status, gang affiliations, disregard for previous release conditions, and risk to public safety.

    HSI is investigating the cases, with valuable assistance from the FBI, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

    Assistant U.S. Attorneys Maria Armijo, Randy Castellano, and Elizabeth Tonkin for the District of New Mexico are prosecuting both cases.

    United States v. Hannah C. Dugan, Eastern District of Wisconsin

    The Justice Department today announced the filing of a federal criminal complaint against Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Hannah C. Dugan, 65, for her alleged interference with a federal law enforcement operation and unlawful concealment of an individual subject to arrest.

    According to court documents, the charges stem from events occurring on April 18, when members of the Milwaukee office of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Enforcement and Removal Operations (ICE ERO), along with federal partners from the FBI, DEA, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection, attempted to execute a lawful arrest warrant for Eduardo Flores-Ruiz, a Mexican national previously removed from the United States and recently charged in Milwaukee County with multiple counts of domestic abuse-related battery.

    According to court documents, federal agents arrived at the Milwaukee County Courthouse intending to arrest Flores-Ruiz in a public hallway following his court appearance before Judge Dugan. Upon learning of the agents’ presence in the hallway, Judge Dugan allegedly confronted and ordered federal agents to leave the courthouse. After being made aware of a valid immigration arrest warrant, Judge Dugan told agents that they needed a judicial warrant and demanded that they go to the Chief Judge’s office. Once the agents were no longer in the vicinity of her courtroom, Judge Dugan allegedly elected not to conduct a hearing on Flores-Ruiz’s criminal case, despite the fact that victims of his offense were present, and instead personally escorted Flores-Ruiz and his attorney through a restricted “jury door” exit not typically used by defendants or attorneys. This doorway led to a non-public hallway through which Flores-Ruiz and his attorney exited her courtroom. According to the affidavit, Judge Dugan’s actions directly resulted in Flores-Ruiz temporarily avoiding federal custody. He was ultimately arrested outside the courthouse, following a brief foot pursuit.

    Dugan is charged with obstruction of proceedings before a department or agency of the United States, which carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison and concealing a person to prevent arrest, which carries a maximum penalty of one year in prison.

    Flores-Ruiz was previously deported in 2013 and had reentered the United States unlawfully. He was subject to arrest based on an administrative warrant issued by ICE for immigration violations following his recent criminal charges in Milwaukee County.

    A criminal complaint is merely an allegation. All defendants are presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Attorney General Bonta Co-Leads Multistate Amicus Brief Challenging the Trump Administration’s Early Termination of Temporary Protected Status for Haitians

    Source: US State of California

    OAKLAND – California Attorney General Rob Bonta today co-led a coalition of 19 attorneys general in filing an amicus brief in Haitian Evangelical Clergy Association v. Trump in support of a challenge to the early termination of the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) designation for Haitians. TPS is a critical humanitarian program established by Congress in 1990 that allows nationals of designated countries to remain in the United States due to ongoing armed conflict, environmental disaster, or extraordinary and temporary conditions in their home countries. In their brief, the attorneys general urge the district court to grant the plaintiffs’ motion to postpone the unlawful early termination of the TPS designation for Haitians.

    “The Trump Administration’s unlawful attempt to terminate Haiti’s TPS designation threatens the very livelihoods of individuals fleeing from a humanitarian crisis in search of safety and a better life for their families,” said Attorney General Bonta. Our Haitian TPS holders are an integral part of our community, they are our neighbors, co-workers, teachers, and caregivers. At the California DOJ we recognize the importance of our TPS communities and urge the court to prevent the Trump Administration’s unlawful attempt to revoke their legal immigration status from going into effect.”

    In the amicus brief, the coalition urges the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of New York to prevent the Trump Administration’s order from going into effect, arguing that the termination of Haitian TPS is unlawful and will:

    • Result in irreparable harm to families, stripping members of work authorization exposing them to the threat of deportation.
    • Harm states’ economies and workforces as the TPS-holder community, including the Haitian community, are dynamic contributors to Amici States’ economies.
    • Raise healthcare costs and pose substantial risks to public health.
    • Create challenges for jurisdictions across the country in enforcing their criminal codes and protecting public safety. 

    Attorney General Bonta is committed to upholding the rights and protections of all Californians, including the nearly 11 million immigrants who call California home. He has supported a challenge to the early termination of the TPS designation for Haitians and Venezuelans, defended pathways for legal immigration for those fleeing dangerous conditions in their home counties, and secured a preliminary injunction in his lawsuit challenging the President’s unlawful executive order seeking to end birthright citizenship.

    Attorney General Bonta co-led the filing of today’s brief along with the Attorneys General of New York and Massachusetts, and is joined by the Attorneys General of Connecticut, Delaware, Hawai‘i, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, and the District of Columbia.

    A copy of the brief can be found here.

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Africa: Malaria scorecard: battles have been won and advances made, but the war isn’t over

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Shüné Oliver, Medical scientist, National Institute for Communicable Diseases

    Sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the brunt of malaria cases in the world. In this region 11 countries account for two-thirds of the global burden.

    World Malaria Day is marked on 25 April. What progress has been made against the disease, where are the gaps and what’s being done to plug them?

    As scientists who research malaria in Africa, we believe that the continent can defeat the disease. New, effective tools have been added to the malaria toolbox.

    Researchers and malaria programmes, however, must strengthen collaborations. This will ensure the limited resources are used in ways that make the most impact.

    The numbers

    Some progress has been made, but in some cases there have been reverses.

    • Between 2000 and 2015 there was an 18% reduction in new cases from 262 million in 2000 to 214 million in 2015. Since then, progress has stalled.

    • The World Health Organization estimates that approximately 2.2 billion cases have been prevented between 2000 and 2023. Additionally, 12.7 million deaths have been avoided. In 2025, 45 countries are certified as malaria free. Only nine of those countries are in Africa. These include Egypt, Seychelles and Lesotho.

    • The global target set by the WHO was to reduce new cases by 75% compared to cases in 2015. Africa should have reported approximately 47,000 cases in 2023. Instead there were 246 million.

    • Almost every African country with ongoing malaria transmission experienced an increase in malaria cases in 2023. Exceptions to this were Rwanda and Liberia.

    So why is progress stagnating and in many cases reversing?

    How malaria affects countries around the world.

    The setbacks

    Effective malaria control is extremely challenging. Malaria parasite and mosquito populations evolve rapidly. This makes them difficult to control.

    Africa is home to malaria mosquitoes that prefer biting humans to other animals. These mosquitoes have also adapted to avoid insecticide-treated surfaces.

    It has been shown in South Africa that mosquitoes may feed on people inside their homes, but will avoid resting on the sprayed walls.

    Mosquitoes have also developed mechanisms to resist the effects of insecticides. Malaria vector resistance to certain insecticides used in malaria control is widespread in endemic areas. Resistance levels vary around Africa.

    Resistance to the pyrethroid class is most common. Organophosphate resistance is rare, but present in west Africa. As mosquitoes become resistant to the chemicals used for mosquito control, both the spraying of houses and insecticide treated nets become less effective. However, in regions with high malaria cases, nets still provide physical protection despite resistance.

    An additional challenge is that malaria parasites continue to develop resistance to anti-malarial drugs. In 2007 the first evidence began to emerge in south-east Asia that parasites were developing resistance to artemisinins. These are key drugs in the fight against malaria.

    Recently this has been shown to be happening in some African countries too. Artemisinin resistance has been confirmed in Eritrea, Rwanda, Tanzania and Uganda. Molecular markers of artemisinin resistance were recently detected in parasites from Namibia and Zambia.

    Malaria parasites have also developed mutations that prevent them from being being detected by the most widely used rapid diagnostic test in Africa.

    Countries in the Horn of Africa, where parasites with these mutations are common, have changed the malaria rapid diagnostic tests used to ensure early diagnosis.

    The progress

    Nevertheless, the fight against malaria has been strengthened by novel control strategies.

    Firstly, after more than 30 years of research, two malaria vaccines – RTS,S and R21 – have finally been approved by the WHO. These are being deployed in 19 African countries.

    These vaccines have reduced disease cases and deaths in the high-risk under-five-years-old age group. They have reduced cases of severe malaria by approximately 30% and deaths by 17%.

    Secondly, effectiveness of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets has been improved.

    New insecticides have been approved for use. Chemical components that help to manage resistance have also been included in the nets.

    Thirdly, novel tools are showing promise. One option is attractive toxic sugar baits. This is because sugar is what mosquitoes naturally eat. Biocontrol by altering the native gut bacteria of mosquitoes may also prove effective.

    Fourthly, reducing mosquito populations by releasing sterilised male or genetically modified mosquitoes into wild mosquito populations is also showing promise. Trials are currently happening in Burkina Faso. Genetically sterilised males have been released on a small scale. This strategy has shown promise in reducing the population.

    Fifthly, two new antimalarials are expected to be available in the next year or two. Artemisinin-based combination therapies are standard treatment for malaria. An improvement to this is triple artemisinin-based combination therapy. This is a combination of this drug with an additional antimalarial. Studies in Africa and Asia have shown these triple combinations to be very effective in controlling malaria.

    The second new antimalarial is the first non-artemisinin-based drug to be developed in over 20 years. Ganaplacide-lumefantrine has been shown to be effective in young children. Once available, it can to be used to treat parasites that are resistant to artemisinin. This is because it has a completely different mechanism of action.

    The end game

    It has been several years since the malaria control toolbox has been strengthened with novel tools and strategies that target both the vector and the parasite. This makes it an ideal time to double down in the fight against this deadly disease.

    In 2020, the WHO identified 25 countries with the potential to stop malaria transmission within their borders by 2025. While none of these countries eliminated malaria, some have made significant progress. Costa Rica and Nepal reported fewer than 100 cases. Timor-Leste reported only one case in recent years.

    Three southern African countries are included in this group: Botswana, Eswatini and South Africa. Unfortunately, all these countries showed increases in cases in 2023.

    With the new tools, these and other countries can eliminate malaria, getting us closer to the dream of a malaria-free world.

    – Malaria scorecard: battles have been won and advances made, but the war isn’t over
    – https://theconversation.com/malaria-scorecard-battles-have-been-won-and-advances-made-but-the-war-isnt-over-255230

    MIL OSI Africa –

  • MIL-OSI USA: Washington State Sues Trump Administration Over Unlawful Conditions on Funding for K-12 Schools

    Source: Washington State News

    $1.4 billion in federal financial assistance at risk in Washington 

    SEATTLE — Washington State Attorney General Nick Brown today, as part of a coalition of 19 attorneys general, filed a lawsuit challenging the U.S. Department of Education’s threat to withhold federal funding from state and local agencies that refuse to abandon lawful programs and policies promoting equal access to education.

    The federal government provides Washington with approximately $1.4 billion in congressionally mandated financial support each year for a wide variety of needs and services related to children and education. Federal funding supports programs that ensure students from low-income families have the same access to education as their peers, help schools support migrant students and English learners, and provide special education and related services to students with disabilities. To receive these funds, state and local education agencies provide written assurances they will comply with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, which prohibits discrimination in education. Washington state has consistently and regularly certified its compliance with civil rights laws.

    However, an April 3 U.S. Department of Education letter to state and local educational agencies stated continued federal education funding depends on certifying they are not operating programs that support diversity, equity, and inclusion.

    “A complete education depends on students learning in a safe and inclusive environment,” Brown said. “Washington state’s policies put students first, and I will not let the Trump administration roll that back.”

    The department’s April 3 letter to state and local educational agencies forces them to choose between two options:

    • Refuse to certify compliance based on vague guidelines of what constitutes unlawful diversity, equity, and inclusion programs then place federal funding in peril; or
    • Certify compliance with its vague guidelines then attempt to identify and eliminate lawful diversity, equity, and inclusion programs.

    Even if the state complies with the department’s demands, it could still face liability for failing to fully comply with the vague and ill-defined federal order.

    Faced with these choices, Washington state informed the department that it continues to stand by its prior certifications of compliance with civil rights laws and would not comply with the department’s extraneous and improper certification request.

    In filing today’s lawsuit, Attorney General Brown and the multistate coalition seek to bar the department from withholding any funding based on these unlawful conditions. Brown and the other attorneys general assert that the department’s attempt to terminate federal education funding violates the Spending Clause, the Appropriations Clause, the Administrative Procedures Act, and the separation of powers. 

    Attorney General Brown joins the attorneys general of California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Wisconsin in filing the lawsuit.

    A copy of the complaint is available here.

    -30-

    Washington’s Attorney General serves the people and the state of Washington. As the state’s largest law firm, the Attorney General’s Office provides legal representation to every state agency, board, and commission in Washington. Additionally, the Office serves the people directly by enforcing consumer protection, civil rights, and environmental protection laws. The Office also prosecutes elder abuse, Medicaid fraud, and handles sexually violent predator cases in 38 of Washington’s 39 counties. Visit www.atg.wa.gov to learn more.

    Media Contact:

    Email: press@atg.wa.gov

    Phone: (360) 753-2727

    General contacts: Click here

    Media Resource Guide & Attorney General’s Office FAQ

    MIL OSI USA News –

  • MIL-OSI Security: Justice Department Announces Two Cases Involving Judicial Misconduct and Obstruction of Law Enforcement

    Source: United States Attorneys General

    Ex-Judge of Dona Ana County Charged with Evidence Tampering and Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Charged with Unlawful Obstruction and Concealment

    The Justice Department today announced federal criminal charges in two separate cases involving the alleged obstruction of federal law enforcement operations and unlawful concealment of individuals residing illegally in the United States.

    “The allegations against Judge Dugan and Judge Cano are serious: no one, least of all a judge, should obstruct law enforcement operations,” said Attorney General Pamela Bondi. “Doing so imperils the safety of our law enforcement officers and undermines the rule of law. The Department of Justice will continue to follow the facts — no one is above the law.”

    “Sanctuary jurisdictions that shield criminal aliens endanger American communities,” said Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche. “This Justice Department will not stand by as local officials put politics over public safety. Reckless sanctuary city policies create a sanctuary for one class—criminals. Those days are over.”

    United States v. Jose Luis Cano; United States v. Nancy Ann Cano, District of New Mexico

    Nancy Ann Cano, 68, and Jose Luis Cano, 67, were arrested yesterday for evidence tampering offenses related to the federal investigation and prosecution against Cristhian Ortega-Lopez, a Venezuelan national residing unlawfully within the United States and with alleged ties to transnational criminal organization Tren de Aragua, a U.S.-designated Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO).

    “Judges are responsible for upholding our country’s laws. It is beyond egregious for a former judge and his wife to engage in evidence tampering on behalf of a suspected Tren de Aragua gang member accused of illegally possessing firearms,” said U.S. Attorney Ryan Ellison for the District of New Mexico. “The U.S. Attorney’s Office is committed to dismantling this foreign terrorist organization by disrupting its criminal operations in New Mexico. That starts by prosecuting those who support gang members — including judges.”

    According to court documents, Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) initiated the investigation into Ortega-Lopez after receiving an anonymous tip that the individual was unlawfully present in the United States and in possession of firearms. Subsequent investigation confirmed that the defendant illegally entered the country on Dec. 15, 2023, near Eagle Pass, Texas, and was released shortly thereafter due to overcrowding at the Border Patrol facility.

    Evidence uncovered by federal agents revealed the defendant had posted multiple photos and videos on social media showing him and other illegal aliens handling firearms at a shooting range in Las Cruces, New Mexico. Among the weapons allegedly pictured were a Sig Sauer P365 handgun, an AR-15 rifle equipped with a suppressor, and other high-powered firearms and ammunition. Distinctive tattoos confirmed Ortega-Lopez’s identity in the photos and videos. Further review of his social media activity revealed content suggesting affiliation with Tren de Aragua, including gang-related tattoos, hand gestures, and clothing.

    According to court documents, in January 2025, HSI received a tip that Ortega-Lopez was unlawfully residing with other illegal aliens at a property in Las Cruces owned by Nancy and Jose Cano. Prior to his resignation in March 2025, Jose Cano served as a judge of the Dona Ana County Magistrate Court.

    On Feb. 28, 2025, HSI executed two federal search warrants in connection with the investigation, resulting in the arrest of the Ortega-Lopez and multiple associates, and the seizure of four firearms.

    Ortega-Lopez was arrested for illegal possession of firearms and ammunition. Four firearms believed to be in Ortega-Lopez’s possession, along with three of his cell phones, were seized during the operation. During the search, Ortega-Lopez was permitted to make a phone call before being taken to the Doña Ana County Detention Center (DACDC). He informed agents that a particular phone he wished to use was not among the devices recovered. Video calls from DACDC later showed Nancy Cano holding a black iPhone believed to be Ortega’s fourth phone.

    In a March 7 call with Ortega-Lopez, Nancy Cano used the device to contact a person named “Michelle” via WhatsApp, then facilitated a FaceTime conversation between Michelle and Ortega-Lopez using her personal phone. Additionally, in an April 20 call, Nancy Cano and Ortega-Lopez discussed deleting his Facebook account – a platform where he had previously shared incriminating content, including gang affiliations and images with firearms.

    On April 24, HSI agents executed a subsequent search warrant at the Cano residence to locate the missing cellphone. During questioning, Jose Cano admitted to destroying Ortega’s cellphone by smashing it with a hammer approximately five weeks prior, believing it contained incriminating photos and videos of Ortega with firearms.

    Forensic analysis of the recovered phones revealed messages linked to Ortega’s criminal activities, including affiliations with the Tren de Aragua gang and images of Ortega with firearms.

    Jose Cano is charged with one count of tampering with evidence and Nancy Cano is charged with one count of conspiracy to tamper with evidence. If convicted, the defendants face a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison, three years of supervised released, and up to a  $250,000 fine. A federal district court judge will determine any sentence after considering the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines and other statutory factors.

    Ortega-Lopez is charged with being an unlawful alien in possession of firearms and ammunition, which carries a maximum penalty of 15 years in prison. Despite strong evidence and pre-trial services’ assessment that the defendant poses a serious risk of flight and danger to the community, a U.S. Magistrate Judge ordered the defendant released on conditions. The government has since filed a notice of appeal challenging that decision, citing the defendant’s unlawful status, gang affiliations, disregard for previous release conditions, and risk to public safety.

    HSI is investigating the cases, with valuable assistance from the FBI, Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP).

    Assistant U.S. Attorneys Maria Armijo, Randy Castellano, and Elizabeth Tonkin for the District of New Mexico are prosecuting both cases.

    United States v. Hannah C. Dugan, Eastern District of Wisconsin

    The Justice Department today announced the filing of a federal criminal complaint against Milwaukee County Circuit Court Judge Hannah C. Dugan, 65, for her alleged interference with a federal law enforcement operation and unlawful concealment of an individual subject to arrest.

    According to court documents, the charges stem from events occurring on April 18, when members of the Milwaukee office of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, Enforcement and Removal Operations (ICE ERO), along with federal partners from the FBI, DEA, and U.S. Customs and Border Protection, attempted to execute a lawful arrest warrant for Eduardo Flores-Ruiz, a Mexican national previously removed from the United States and recently charged in Milwaukee County with multiple counts of domestic abuse-related battery.

    According to court documents, federal agents arrived at the Milwaukee County Courthouse intending to arrest Flores-Ruiz in a public hallway following his court appearance before Judge Dugan. Upon learning of the agents’ presence in the hallway, Judge Dugan allegedly confronted and ordered federal agents to leave the courthouse. After being made aware of a valid immigration arrest warrant, Judge Dugan told agents that they needed a judicial warrant and demanded that they go to the Chief Judge’s office. Once the agents were no longer in the vicinity of her courtroom, Judge Dugan allegedly elected not to conduct a hearing on Flores-Ruiz’s criminal case, despite the fact that victims of his offense were present, and instead personally escorted Flores-Ruiz and his attorney through a restricted “jury door” exit not typically used by defendants or attorneys. This doorway led to a non-public hallway through which Flores-Ruiz and his attorney exited her courtroom. According to the affidavit, Judge Dugan’s actions directly resulted in Flores-Ruiz temporarily avoiding federal custody. He was ultimately arrested outside the courthouse, following a brief foot pursuit.

    Dugan is charged with obstruction of proceedings before a department or agency of the United States, which carries a maximum penalty of five years in prison and concealing a person to prevent arrest, which carries a maximum penalty of one year in prison.

    Flores-Ruiz was previously deported in 2013 and had reentered the United States unlawfully. He was subject to arrest based on an administrative warrant issued by ICE for immigration violations following his recent criminal charges in Milwaukee County.

    A criminal complaint is merely an allegation. All defendants are presumed innocent until proven guilty beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law.

    MIL Security OSI –