Machine Learning – Page 582

MIL-OSI Russia: Japan: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission

Source: IMF – News in Russian

February 7, 2025

A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

Washington, DC – February 7, 2025^[1]:

After three decades of near-zero inflation, there are signs that Japan’s economy can sustainably converge to a new equilibrium. Inflation has surpassed the Bank of Japan’s 2-percent target for over two years and a tight labor market is delivering the strongest wage growth since the 1990s. But Japan continues to face challenges from its aging population and high public debt. Policy priorities are to re-anchor inflation expectations, rebuild fiscal buffers, and advance labor market reforms to support potential growth.

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS, OUTLOOK, AND RISKS

The economy contracted in the first half of 2024 due to temporary supply disruptions but gained momentum in the rest of the year. Domestic demand, private consumption in particular, has strengthened, while net external demand has been sluggish. Both headline and core inflation (excluding fresh food and energy) remain above the BoJ’s 2-percent headline inflation target. Goods inflation has been boosted by energy and food prices, while services price growth is relatively weaker and below 2 percent. Inflation expectations are becoming increasingly aligned with the inflation target, though some measures remain below that target. The yen-dollar exchange rate has experienced sizable swings, largely driven by shifts in interest rate differentials (which reflect broader macroeconomic developments), but also amplified by the build-up and subsequent unwinding of yen carry-trade positions. The pass-through to inflation is estimated to have been relatively mild so far. Wages are growing at their highest rate since the 1990s amid labor shortages and strong inflation, but they have remained lackluster in real terms.

Growth is expected to accelerate in 2025, with private consumption strengthening further, as above-inflation wage growth will boost households’ disposable income. Private investment is also expected to remain strong, supported by high corporate profits and accommodative financial conditions. The output gap is estimated to be closed, and growth is expected to converge to its potential of 0.5 percent in the medium term. Headline and core inflation are expected to converge to the BoJ’s 2-percent headline inflation target in late 2025, helped by a moderation in commodity prices for oil and food. The current account surplus is expected to moderate in 2025 as the income balance narrows, with the trade balance remaining in deficit. The external position is assessed as broadly in line with the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies.

Risks to growth are tilted to the downside. On the external side, these include a slowdown in the global economy, deepening geoeconomic fragmentation and increasing trade restrictions, and more volatile food and energy prices. On the domestic side, the main downside risk is weak consumption if real wages do not pick up. Another domestic risk to the outlook is a possible decline in confidence in fiscal sustainability that leads to a tightening of financial conditions in the context of high public debt and gross financing needs. If downside risks materialize, it could result in Japan reverting to an effective-lower-bound constrained environment given the still-low level of the policy rate.

Risks to inflation are broadly balanced. On the downside, inflation expectations may stall below the headline inflation target following Japan’s prolonged experience with low inflation. Upside risks stem from rising food and energy prices, and from stronger-than-expected wages in the upcoming spring wage negotiations. Higher barriers to trade and cost pressures in major trading partners could spill over to Japan but the impact on domestic prices would be ambiguous given lower economic activity.

ECONOMIC POLICIES

Fiscal Policy

The estimated fiscal deficit in 2024 is smaller than expected at the time of the 2024 Article IV. Tax revenues have been boosted by high corporate profits, and expenditures to support the economic recovery (such as transfers to households and SMEs) have been partly phased out. The fiscal deficit is projected to increase slightly in 2025, with additional spending planned for defense, children-related measures, and industrial policies (IP). There is a significant risk that the deficit will widen further, given the political demands on the minority government. This should be avoided as fiscal space remains limited: any expansionary measure should be offset by higher revenues or expenditure savings elsewhere in the budget.

Public debt, as a share of GDP, is expected to decline in the near term, as nominal GDP growth is projected to exceed the effective interest rate on public debt. Public debt will remain high, however, and is estimated to start rising by 2030, driven by a higher interest bill and expenditure pressures related to spending on health and long-term care for an aging population. A clear consolidation plan is needed even in the near term to fully offset these pressures, ensure debt sustainability, and increase fiscal space needed to respond to shocks (including from natural disasters). This will require elaborating concrete and credible expenditure and revenue measures in the context of a robust medium-term fiscal framework:

The composition of public spending should be more growth-friendly, including by eliminating poorly targeted subsidies, notably energy subsidies, while preserving expenditure on high-quality public investment. Enhancing the targeting and efficiency of social security spending is critical to containing rising costs while preserving quality.
On the revenue side, options include strengthening financial income taxation for high-income earners, lowering exemptions and broadening the taxable valuation base under the property tax, streamlining income tax deductions, and unifying and eventually increasing the consumption tax rate. The PIT reform to the income deduction limit that is currently under consideration would need to be financed by additional revenues or savings elsewhere in the budget.

The repeated use, and incomplete execution of supplementary budgets undermines efficient resource allocation, budget transparency, and fiscal discipline. The use of supplementary budgets should be limited to responding to large, unexpected shocks that overwhelm automatic stabilizers, which would also avoid providing unwarranted stimulus in normal times. All medium-term spending commitments—including on IP and green transformation—should be incorporated into the regular budget process.

As interest rates rise, the cost of servicing the large public debt is expected to double by 2030, putting a premium on a robust debt management strategy. In the face of rising gross financing needs and a shrinking BoJ balance sheet, government bond issuance will need to rely on additional demand from foreign investors and domestic institutions.

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

The current accommodative monetary policy stance is appropriate and will ensure inflation expectations rise sustainably to the 2-percent inflation target. Accommodation should continue to be withdrawn gradually if the baseline forecast bears out, under which we expect the policy rate would reach a neutral level by end-2027. High domestic and external uncertainty underscore the need for the BoJ to maintain its data-dependent and flexible approach and clear communications to anchor market expectations.

The BOJ’s ongoing reduction in the size of its balance sheet has been clearly communicated, is appropriately modest in pace, and is proceeding smoothly. The BoJ should stand ready to modify the pace of its purchases should disorderly bond market conditions arise or if financial conditions become inconsistent with the desired monetary policy stance.

Japan’s large stock of outstanding government debt and sizable net international investment position provide an important transmission channel for monetary policy to spill over into asset prices abroad. Clear communication and gradualism can limit adverse asset price reactions and outward spillovers.

The authorities’ continued commitment to a flexible exchange rate regime is welcome. Exchange rate flexibility should continue to help absorb external shocks and support monetary policy’s focus on price stability. At the same time, it will also help maintain an external position in line with fundamentals.

Financial Stability

Japan’s financial system remains broadly resilient, supported by strong capital and liquidity buffers. Banks’ revenues have generally increased as credit costs remain low, the rise in interest rates has been gradual, and the yen has depreciated. Major banks continue to manage interest rate risks proactively through portfolio rebalancing and diversifying their funding sources. Financial intermediation remains stable supported by continued demand for loans from both corporate and household sectors. The insurance sector is well-capitalized and profitable, despite challenges from market volatility and demographic shifts.

While the financial system remains generally resilient, systemic risk has risen slightly since the 2024 Article IV consultation, reflecting a combination of rising macroeconomic uncertainty, risk of faster than expected interest rates increases or unrealized losses, and rising bankruptcies among SMEs. Rising global macroeconomic uncertainty could impact Japanese banks’ investments. While gradually rising interest rates have helped bank profitability, faster-than-expected increases in interest rates or sudden changes in global financial conditions could amplify financial market volatility and interact with three persisting vulnerabilities identified in the 2024 FSAP: large securities held under mark-to-market accounting, significant foreign currency exposures—particularly through US dollar funding instruments—and signs of overheating in some areas of real estate. A faster-than-expected tightening of financial conditions could also disrupt the JGB market, amplifying interest rate risks for banks with larger exposures. Less-capitalized domestic banks are more vulnerable to rate hikes, facing heightened risks from unrealized losses and higher funding costs. Corporate defaults among smaller SMEs have been increasing, albeit from a low base, and could pose risks for regional banks with high SME loan exposure.

Strengthening systemic risk monitoring and the macroprudential policy framework is needed to better mitigate risks in the financial system. Ongoing efforts to expand data collection, enhance analytical capacity, and improve coordination between the FSA and BOJ are welcome. To further enhance systemic risk analysis, closing remaining data gaps and advancing analytical tools for a more comprehensive assessment of systemic vulnerabilities, including those related to foreign currency exposure, remain key priorities. Assigning a formal mandate to the Council for Cooperation on Financial Stability would reinforce the institutional framework, while expanding the macroprudential policy toolkit with targeted borrower-based measures would help mitigate vulnerabilities in the real estate sector.

Further strengthening financial sector oversight is essential to bolster stability and resilience against emerging risks and vulnerabilities. While progress has been made in expanding staffing resources in certain areas, additional allocations are needed to reinforce financial supervision. The authorities should continue to enhance risk-based supervision to respond flexibly to an evolving banking system. Strengthening the Early Warning System with more forward-looking indicators, especially for credit and liquidity risks, and establishing minimum liquidity requirements for domestic banks would enhance stability. Supervisors should also have the authority to adjust bank capital ratios above minimum requirements based on individual risk profiles and financial conditions.

The authorities should remain prepared to address market strains as they arise. The liquidity and functioning of the JGB market have improved since April but experienced temporary deterioration in early August amid a spike in market volatility. Rising foreign market volatility could impact domestic liquidity conditions, potentially triggering spillover effects. To mitigate these risks the central bank should closely monitor liquidity conditions and funding rates in money markets, while paying particular attention to the uneven distribution of liquidity among banks as well as the growth in repo transactions driven by demand from financial dealers and foreign investors. The scope of institutions eligible to receive emergency liquidity assistance could be expanded to nonbank financial institutions, prioritizing central counterparties. Recovery and Resolution Planning should be gradually expanded to all banks that could be systemic at failure, requiring more banks to maintain a minimum amount of loss-absorbing capacity tailored to their resolvability needs.

Structural Policies

Japan’s total factor productivity growth has been slowing for a decade and has fallen further behind the United States. A steady decline in allocative efficiency since the early 2000s has been a drag on productivity, and likely reflects an increase in market frictions. In addition, Japan’s ultra-low interest rates may have allowed low-productivity firms to survive longer than they otherwise would have, delaying necessary economic restructuring. Reforms aimed at improving labor mobility across firms would help improve Japan’s allocative efficiency and boost productivity.

Japan’s labor market is expected to witness a significant transformation driven by population aging and advances in artificial intelligence (AI). Japan is aging rapidly—a trend that is expected to continue over coming decades—and has been at the forefront in labor-saving automation to alleviate labor shortages. Policies can play a crucial role in mitigating the impact of aging on labor supply and facilitating mobility needed to benefit from AI adoption:

Thanks to government efforts, Japan’s seniors already have a relatively high labor force participation rate compared to other OECD countries. But policy frictions such as an income threshold that triggers a loss of pension benefits may be inducing seniors to work fewer hours than they otherwise would.
Japan has made significant progress in increasing female labor force participation during the last decade. Further supporting women’s ability to fully participate in the labor force will require continuing to expand childcare resources and facilitate fathers’ contribution to home/childcare, and further encouraging the use of flexible working arrangements.
Training programs are crucial to enhance the complementarity of AI with the labor force and improve the productivity of senior workers.
Improving mobility and reducing barriers to job switching are essential to address labor shortages due to aging and the potential job displacement impact of AI. Subsidized training programs that are targeted to in-demand occupations could help reskill and upskill the labor force and facilitate occupational mobility.

While AI may help to address some of Japan’s labor shortages, and since upskilling/reskilling the labor force takes time, attracting foreign workers could help alleviate labor shortages. Government programs have led to a tripling of the number of foreign workers in Japan during the past decade. However, foreigners continue to play a much smaller role in the Japanese labor force than they do in other OECD economies.

Similar to other G20 economies, Japan has increased its adoption of industrial policies. Japan’s industrial policies aim to advance several objectives, including economic security, resilience, inclusive growth, and green and digital transformation (the latter including support for the semiconductor industry). Under this umbrella, multi-year envelopes of 20 trillion and 10 trillion yen have been identified for green transformation and the semiconductor/AI industries, respectively. Given Japan’s limited fiscal space and the unclear growth impact of past IP, industrial policy schemes should be subjected to a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis. Going forward, IP should be narrowly targeted to specific objectives when externalities or market failures exist, to minimize distortions. It should avoid favoring domestic products over imports or creating incentives that lead to a fragmentation of the global system for trade and investment, in line with Japan’s commitment to multilateral economic cooperation.

Japan remains committed to green transformation, and further progress on policies would enable reaching its targets. Notable ongoing efforts—such as the issuance of climate transition bonds to finance government green investment, and the implementation of carbon credits trading—are in line with international practices and previous staff advice. Nevertheless, without further policy changes, Japan is likely to fall short of its targets. To help meet its green commitments while boosting growth, a combination of policies is needed. Options include the removal of energy subsidies, the expansion of carbon pricing, feebates and tradable performance standards. Carbon pricing would need to be accompanied by targeted cash transfers to protect the vulnerable from adverse distributional effects.

The IMF team would like to thank the authorities and other interlocutors in Japan for the frank and open discussions.

Table 1. Japan: Selected Economic Indicators, 2021-26

Nominal GDP: US$ 4,213 billion (2023)		GDP per capita: US$ 33,849 (2023)
Population: 124 million (2023)		Quota: SDR 30.8 billion (2023)

	2021	2022	2023		2024	2025		2026
				Est.	Proj.

	(In percent change)
Growth
Real GDP	2.7	0.9	1.5		-0.2		1.1	0.8
Domestic demand	1.7	1.5	0.4		0.2		1.2	0.8
Private consumption	0.7	2.1	0.8		-0.3		0.9	0.6
Gross Private Fixed Investment	1.3	1.6	1.5		0.6		1.1	0.8
Business investment	1.7	2.6	1.5		1.3		1.2	0.9
Residential investment	-0.3	-2.7	1.5		-2.4		0.8	0.4
Government consumption	3.4	1.4	-0.3		1.0		1.3	1.2
Public investment	-2.6	-8.3	1.5		-1.2		0.3	0.0
Stockbuilding	0.5	0.2	-0.3		0.1		0.1	0.0
Net exports	1.0	-0.5	1.0		-0.2		0.0	0.1
Exports of goods and services	11.9	5.5	3.0		0.7		2.9	2.0
Imports of goods and services	5.2	8.3	-1.5		2.0		2.9	1.8
Output Gap	-1.6	-0.9	0.2		0.1		0.2	0.0

	(In percent change, period average)
Inflation
Headline CPI	-0.2	2.5	3.2		2.8		2.4	2.0
GDP deflator	-0.2	0.4	4.1		3.0		2.3	2.1

	(In percent of GDP)
Government
Revenue	36.3	37.5	36.8		36.9		36.8	36.8
Expenditure	42.5	41.8	39.1		39.4		39.4	39.7
Overall Balance	-6.2	-4.3	-2.3		-2.5		-2.6	-2.9
Primary balance	-5.6	-3.9	-2.1		-2.1		-2.2	-2.2
Structural primary balance	-4.9	-3.8	-2.2		-2.1		-2.3	-2.2
Public debt, gross	253.7	248.3	240.0		237.0	232.7		230.0

	(In percent change, end-of-period)
Macro-financial
Base money	8.5	-5.6	6.4		-1.0		2.2	2.2
Broad money	2.9	2.3	2.2		1.1		2.1	2.1
Credit to the private sector	2.3	3.6	4.2		3.1		1.8	1.6
Non-financial corporate debt in percent of GDP	157.1	161.2	156.7		159.8		160.2	161.3

	(In percent)
Interest rate
Overnight call rate, uncollateralized (end-of-period)	0.0	0.0	0.0		…		…	…
10-year JGB yield (end-of-period)	0.1	0.4	0.6		…		…	…

	(In billions of USD)
Balance of payments
Current account balance	196.2	89.9	158.5		179.4		166.7	162.2
Percent of GDP	3.9	2.1	3.8		4.5		4.1	3.8
Trade balance	16.4	-115.8	-48.2		-31.5		-26.2	-24.1
Percent of GDP	0.3	-2.7	-1.1		-0.8		-0.6	-0.6
Exports of goods, f.o.b.	749.2	752.5	713.7		691.6		705.5	720.9
Imports of goods, f.o.b.	732.7	868.3	761.9		723.1		731.7	745.0
Energy imports	127.8	195.5	152.9		145.2		135.9	122.5

	(In percent of GDP)
FDI, net	3.5	3.0	4.1		4.8		4.2	4.1
Portfolio Investment	-3.9	-3.3	4.7		5.5		0.9	0.9

	(In billions of USD)
Change in reserves	62.8	-47.4	29.8		-74.7		11.5	11.5
Total reserves minus gold (in billions of US$)	1356.2	1178.3	1238.5		…		…	…

	(In units, period average)
Exchange rates
Yen/dollar rate	109.8	131.5	140.5		…		…	…
Yen/euro rate	129.9	138.6	152.0		…		…	…
Real effective exchange rate (ULC-based, 2010=100)	73.5	61.8	56.1		…		…	…
Real effective exchange rate (CPI-based, 2010=100)	70.7	61.0	58.1		…		…	…

	(In percent)
Demographic Indicators
Population Growth	-0.3	-0.3	-0.5		-0.5		-0.5	-0.5
Old-age dependency	48.7	48.8	48.9		49.2		49.7	50.1

Sources: Haver Analytics; OECD; Japanese authorities; and IMF staff estimates and projections.

[1] An IMF mission, led by Nada Choueiri and including Kohei Asao, Yan Carrière-Swallow, Andrea Deghi, Shujaat Khan, Gene Kindberg-Hanlon, Haruki Seitani, Danila Smirnov and Ara Stepanyan, conducted meetings in Japan during January 23-February 6, 2025. The mission met with senior officials at the Ministry of Finance, Bank of Japan, and other ministries and government agencies, along with representatives of labor unions, the business community, financial sector, and academics.

IMF Communications Department

MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER: Randa Elnagar

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/02/07/mcs-020725-japan-staff-concluding-statement-of-the-2025-article-iv-mission

MIL OSI

MIL OSI Russia News –

February 7, 2025

MIL-OSI New Zealand: Universities – Green light for remote tech to sort the wood from the trees – Flinders

Source: Flinders University

New Zealand and Flinders University experts have deployed artificial intelligence and 3D laser scanning to accurately map planted pine (radiata) forests for most of NZ’s North Island.

The results, which distinguish planted large estates, small woodlots and newly established stands as young as three years old, showcase a new way of using remote sensing with other technology to reveal forest growth and update growth information.

This approach is just as relevant for Australia, where radiata pine is also widely grown, says Dr Grant Pearse, Senior Lecturer in Remote Sensing and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) at Flinders University.

“In New Zealand, where radiata pine plantations dominate the forestry sector, the current national forest description lacks spatially explicit information and struggles to capture data on small-scale forests,” says Dr Pearse, from the College of Science and Engineering at Flinders University in Adelaide, South Australia.

“We combined deep learning-based forest mapping using high-resolution aerial imagery with regional airborne laser scanning data to map all planted forest and estimate key attributes.”

The spatially explicit forest description provides wall-to-wall information on forest extent, age, and volume for all sizes of forest. This facilitates stratification by key variables for wood supply forecasting, harvest planning, and infrastructure investment decisions – applications equally valuable for other forestry industries.

The research, with New Zealand timber industry researchers from Rotorua, Christchurch and Auckland, was carried out on planted forests in the Gisborne region, which has publicly available aerial imagery and airborne laser scanning data.

This region is particularly significant as it was severely impacted by Cyclone Gabrielle in early 2023, which caused widespread landslides and forest debris flows.

For such vulnerable terrain, knowing exactly where forests are located in the landscape, their age and condition is key to managing the risks of harvesting operations on the region’s steep slopes.

“We propose satellite-based harvest detection and digital photogrammetry to continuously update the initial forest description. This methodology enables near real-time monitoring of planted forests at all scales and is adaptable to other regions with similar data availability,” researchers say in a new article.

Along with the economic importance of NZ’s 1.8 million hectares of radiata pine forestry for export timber and fibre, these planted forests are a key part of the country’s emission trading scheme and are expected to play a significant role in achieving the government’s target of net-zero emissions by 2050.

The forest map derived from artificial intelligence can be viewed at: www.forestinsights.nz

In South Australia, plantation estates covering about 40,000 hectares support a $3 billion industry and employ 18,000 people as well as construction, manufacturing, tourism and regional communities.

The article. ‘Developing a forest description from remote sensing: Insights from New Zealand’ (2024) byGrant D Pearse (Flinders University), Sadeepa Jayathunga, Nicolò Camarretta, Melanie E Palmer, Benjamin SC Steer, Michael S Watt (all Scion), Pete Watt and Andrew Holdaway (both Indufor Asia Pacific) has been published in the journal Science of Remote Sensing. DOI: 10.1016/j.srs.2024.100183. (ref. https://www.forestinsights.nz/ )

Acknowledgements: This project was funded through the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) Strategic Science Investment Fund (administered by Scion, the New Zealand Forest Research Institute Ltd) and through the MBIE Programme (grant number C04X2101).

MIL OSI New Zealand News –

February 7, 2025

MIL-OSI USA: SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 4

Source: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Note: The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is replaced, cancelled or extended.Note: Click for Watch Status Reports.
SEL4

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 4
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
730 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Kentucky
Northeast Tennessee
Extreme Southwest Virginia

* Effective this Thursday night from 730 PM until Midnight EST.

* Primary threats include…
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY…Scattered intense storms will track southeastward across
the watch area for the next few hours, capable of hail and damaging
winds. A tornado or two is also possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Knoxville TN to 30 miles north northeast of Hot Springs NC. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

…Hart

SEL4

URGENT – IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 4
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
730 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Southeast Kentucky
Northeast Tennessee
Extreme Southwest Virginia

* Effective this Thursday night from 730 PM until Midnight EST.

* Primary threats include…
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY…Scattered intense storms will track southeastward across
the watch area for the next few hours, capable of hail and damaging
winds. A tornado or two is also possible.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45
statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of
Knoxville TN to 30 miles north northeast of Hot Springs NC. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

REMEMBER…A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION…A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

…Hart

Note: The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area. The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 4 SEVERE TSTM KY TN VA 070030Z – 070500Z
AXIS..45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
50NW TYS/KNOXVILLE TN/ – 30NNE HSS/HOT SPRINGS NC/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 40NM N/S /44NW VXV – 25WSW HMV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.

LAT…LON 36988464 36958261 35658261 35688464

THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.

Watch 4 Status Report Message has not been issued yet.

Note: Click for Complete Product Text.Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes

Low (5%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Low (20%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch (listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster. The “Low” category contains probability values ranging from less than 2% to 20% (EF2-EF5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities), “Moderate” from 30% to 60%, and “High” from 70% to greater than 95%. High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of an increased threat for a particular event.

MIL OSI USA News –

February 7, 2025

MIL-OSI Economics: Samsung Galaxy S25 Series Arrives Worldwide

Source: Samsung

Samsung Electronics today announced the global availability of the new Galaxy S25 series. Together with One UI 7, Gemini is officially available at launch in 46 languages,1 making it easier than ever to perform seamless interactions across Samsung and Google apps.

▲ New York 500 Broadway, Galaxy Experience Space

“The Galaxy S25 series is a fundamental shift in how we interact with our phones,” said TM Roh, President and Head of Mobile eXperience Business at Samsung Electronics. “We are thrilled to see how our users will enjoy this true AI companion that offers seamless and intuitive solutions in their daily lives.”

▲ Dubai The Bay Festival City Mall, Galaxy Experience Space

On the Galaxy S25 series, AI agents with multimodal capabilities are integrated within the One UI 72 platform to perform complex tasks seamlessly across apps and enable natural user interactions through speech, text, videos and images. Now Brief3 provides tailored suggestions to guide through the day and Now Bar4 offers a new hub for ongoing activities. From enhanced productivity with Writing Assist to limitless creativity unleashed by Drawing Assist,5 the expanded capabilities of Galaxy AI6 continue to empower users in every aspect of their daily lives.

Interactions with the Galaxy S25 series are also more intuitive. With just a single command, Gemini7 can effortlessly find a user’s favorite sports team’s schedule and add it to Samsung Calendar. Additionally, Google’s enhanced Circle to Search8 now gives users more helpful information with AI Overviews and one-tap actions.

▲ Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City, Galaxy AI Sai Gon Terminal

The Galaxy S25 series further refines and enhances the core capabilities that define the Galaxy experience. Powering the Galaxy S25 series globally, the Snapdragon® 8 Elite Mobile Platform for Galaxy fuels on-device processing for more responsive AI experiences. With unique customizations for Galaxy, including ProScaler9 and Samsung’s mobile Digital Natural Image engine (mDNIe), the Galaxy S25 series boasts enhanced AI image processing and display power efficiency. The newly introduced 50MP ultrawide camera sensor for the Galaxy S25 Ultra delivers epic shots from every range in exceptional clarity, while professional grade controls like Virtual Aperture and Samsung Log turn any photo or video into the ultimate visual experience.

▲ Indonesia Jakarta Kota Kasablanka, Galaxy Experience Space

The Galaxy S25 series is the industry’s first smartphone lineup to support Content Credentials, based on the open technical standard from the Coalition for Content Provenance and Authenticity (C2PA). Samsung has also joined the C2PA as a member, alongside industry leaders including Adobe, Microsoft, OpenAI, Google, Publicis Groupe and more, all collaborating to establish Content Credentials as the universal standard for digital content provenance. In line with its commitment to responsible mobile AI innovation, Samsung adopted this standard to enhance transparency for content created and edited with generative AI.

Starting February 7, the Galaxy S25 series will be widely available through carriers and retailers and on Samsung.com. Galaxy S25 Ultra is available in Titanium Silverblue, Titanium Black, Titanium Whitesilver and Titanium Gray. Galaxy S25 and Galaxy S25+ come in Navy, Silver Shadow, Icyblue and Mint. More unique color options are also available exclusively at Samsung.com,10 including Titanium Pinkgold, Titanium Jetblack and Titanium Jadegreen for Galaxy S25 Ultra as well as Blueblack, Coralred and Pinkgold for Galaxy S25+ and Galaxy S25.

All Galaxy S25 devices will come with six months of Gemini Advanced and 2TB of cloud storage at no extra cost. Gemini Advanced comes with Samsung’s most capable AI models and priority access to the newest features like Gems, custom AI experts for any topic, and Deep Research, which acts as a personal AI research assistant.

For more information about Galaxy S25 series, please visit: Samsung Newsroom, Samsungmobilepress.com and Samsung.com.

▲ Mexico City Santa Fe Mall, Galaxy Experience Space

▲ Brazil Sao Paulo, Galaxy S25 launch event

▲ Germany Berlin, Galaxy Experience Space

1 Supported languages include Arabic, Bengali, Bulgarian, Chinese (Simplified / Traditional), Croatian, Czech, Danish, Dutch, English, Estonian, Farsi, Finnish, French, German, Greek, Gujarati, Hebrew, Hindi, Hungarian, Indonesian, Italian, Japanese, Kannada, Korean, Latvian, Lithuanian, Malayalam, Marathi, Norwegian, Polish, Portuguese, Romanian, Russian, Serbian, Slovak, Slovenian, Spanish, Swahili, Swedish, Tamil, Telugu, Thai, Turkish, Ukrainian, Urdu and Vietnamese.2 The official One UI 7 release will commence with the latest Galaxy S series devices. The update is expected to gradually roll out to other Galaxy devices.3 Now Brief feature requires Samsung Account login. Service availability may vary by country, language, device model, or apps. Some features may require a network connection.4 Availability of functions supported within the apps may vary by country. Some functional widgets may require a network connection and/or Samsung Account login.5 Drawing Assist feature requires a network connection and Samsung Account login. A visible watermark is overlaid on the image output upon saving in order to indicate that the image is generated by AI. The accuracy and reliability of the generated output is not guaranteed.6 Samsung Account login may be required to use certain Samsung AI features. Samsung does not make any promises, assurances or guarantees as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the output provided by AI features. Availability of Galaxy AI features may vary depending on the region / country, OS / One UI version, device model and phone carrier. Some function availability may vary by device model. Galaxy AI service may be limited for minors in certain regions with age restrictions over AI usage. Galaxy AI features will be provided for free until the end of 2025 on supported Samsung Galaxy devices. Different terms may apply for AI features provided by third parties.7 Gemini Extensions feature availability varies based on content. Internet connection, Android device, and set up required. Language availability varies. Results for illustrative purposes and may vary. Check responses for accuracy.8 Sequences shortened and simulated. Results for illustrative purposes only. Service availability may vary by country, language, or device model. Requires internet connection. Users may need to update Android and Google app to the latest version. Results may vary depending on visual or audio matches. Accuracy of results is not guaranteed. Works on compatible apps and surfaces, and with ambient music only. Will not identify music coming through headphones or if phone volume is off.9 ProScaler feature is supported on Galaxy S25+ and Ultra models. Image quality can be enhanced up to QHD+, depending on the screen resolution setting of the device.10 Availability of colors may vary by market and network provider.

MIL OSI Economics –

February 7, 2025

MIL-OSI USA: Senator Coons leads Democratic colleagues in resolution reaffirming USAID’s role in safeguarding U.S. national security

US Senate News:

Source: United States Senator for Delaware Christopher Coons

WASHINGTON – U.S. Senator Chris Coons (D-Del.) introduced a resolution reaffirming that the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) is essential for advancing the national security interests of the United States in the wake of President Trump’s efforts to halt U.S. foreign assistance operations and dismantle USAID. The resolution is cosponsored by Senators Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii), Mark Warner (D-Va.), and 40 other members of the Senate Democratic Caucus.

Senator Coons went to the Senate floor Monday evening to introduce and ask for unanimous consent on the resolution; U.S. Senator Jim Risch (R-Idaho) objected. You can watch his full remarks here.

“President Donald Trump’s unprecedented attacks on USAID and our entire foreign aid apparatus weaken our standing in the world, create power vacuums for our adversaries to fill, and put American lives in danger,” said Senator Coons. “For less than one percent of the federal budget, USAID and foreign aid stop pandemics before they reach America, prevent terrorism, human trafficking and organized crime from finding footholds, and prevent Chinese and Russian disinformation from spreading. Congress created USAID as an independent agency and only Congress can reverse that. I’m glad to see so many of my colleagues standing with me to defend the separation of powers and our foreign aid programs.”

“There will be suffering all over the world because of Trump and Musk’s illegal steps to dismantle USAID,” said Senator Schatz, Ranking Member of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on State and Foreign Operations. “Right now, families are waiting for medicine and food that’s already been paid for, including food produced by American farmers, and Musk just cut them off. The law is on our side, but in the meantime, the Trump administration is illegally fueling chaos that will lead to death across the world and make America less safe.”

“For a small fraction of the overall U.S. budget, USAID promotes global health and stability, fights terrorism, and strengthens U.S. relationships abroad. As Vice Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, I want to be clear: The latest attempt by the Trump administration to freeze U.S.-funded foreign aid assistance and punish the men and women who are working at the agency is a gift to our adversaries that will make us less safe. No one is more delighted that the United States is retreating from its global leadership role than the Communist Party of China,” said Senator Warner.

The resolution is a direct response to the efforts by President Donald Trump and Elon Musk to eliminate USAID and pause the vast majority of U.S. foreign assistance programs, including reports that President Trump would sign an executive order folding the agency into the State Department— moves that are illegal without congressional approval. Senator Coons and his Senate Democratic colleagues are demanding clarity amid purges of USAID’s top personnel, aid freezes, and chaos.

Accounting for less than one percent of the federal budget, our foreign assistance programs, many of which are led by USAID, play an indispensable role in promoting global stability and protecting our nation. Examples include the agency’s vital humanitarian assistance work during global conflicts, efforts to combat infectious diseases before they spread to the United States, to counter terrorism recruitment worldwide and to reduce the number of children pulled into gangs supporting organized crime and human trafficking.

In addition to Senators Coons, Schatz, and Warner, this resolution is cosponsored by Senators Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) Michael Bennet (D-Colo.), Richard Blumenthal (D-Conn.) Lisa Blunt Rochester, (D-Del.), Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.), Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.), Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), John Hickenlooper (D-Colo.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Tim Kaine (D-Va.), Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), Andy Kim (D-N.J.), Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.), Angus King (I-Maine), Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Patty Murray, (D-Wash.), Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Jacky Rosen (D-Nev.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.), Tina Smith (D-Minn.), Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), and Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.).

The full text of the resolution is available here.

MIL OSI USA News –

February 7, 2025

MIL-OSI China: Chinese premier meets Pakistani president

Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, who is on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Feb. 6, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

BEIJING, Feb. 6 — Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari in Beijing on Thursday.

Noting that bilateral cooperation is expanding in scope and achieving more and more positive results, Li said that the ironclad friendship between the two sides has been renewed and deepened.

Li added that China stands ready to work with Pakistan to implement the important consensus reached by the two heads of state, maintain close high-level exchanges, continue to carry forward the traditional friendship, firmly support each other on issues concerning core interests and major concerns, push forward the all-weather strategic cooperative partnership between China and Pakistan, and make the building of a China-Pakistan community with a shared future more beneficial to the two peoples.

Li also noted that China is ready to forge synergy between the development strategies of the two countries, jointly promote high-quality Belt and Road cooperation, advance the construction of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, push forward construction of major projects concerning roads, railways and ports in an orderly manner, deepen cooperation in terms of agriculture, mining, new energy, information technology and artificial intelligence, expand sub-national cooperation and people-to-people exchanges, and better promote the common development of the two countries.

China is willing to further deepen security cooperation with Pakistan and hopes that Pakistan can earnestly guarantee the safety of Chinese personnel, projects and institutions in Pakistan, Li said.

Zardari said that Pakistan and China have always supported and helped each other in the changing international situation, adding that mutual trust and friendship between the two countries have been passed down from generation to generation.

Pakistan cherishes the bilateral friendship with China and is ready to join hands with China to further deepen exchanges and cooperation in trade, investment and other fields, and to achieve common prosperity, he said.

Pakistan welcomes more Chinese enterprises to invest and do business in Pakistan, and will do its utmost to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel, projects and institutions in Pakistan, Zardari added.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets with Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, who is on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, capital of China, Feb. 6, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

MIL OSI China News –

February 7, 2025

MIL-OSI Economics: IMF Press Briefing Transcript – Julie Kozack

Source: International Monetary Fund

February 6, 2025

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND PRESS BRIEFING

Washington, D.C. Thursday, February 6, 2025

P R O C E E D I N G S

KOZACK: Good morning, everyone. It’s great to see you all, here in person and online. Welcome to the first IMF press briefing for 2025. I’m Julie Kozak, Director of the Communication Department. As usual, this briefing is embargoed until 11:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time. I’ll start with a few announcements and then I’ll move to take your questions in person, on WebEx, and via the Press Center.

First, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva will travel to Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia. The Managing Director will visit Ethiopia on February 8th and 9th to meet Prime Minister Abiy and his team, and this visit will take stock of the economic reforms and progress that is being made by the country. She will also meet with stakeholders, including representatives of the private sector.

The Managing Director will also travel to the United Arab Emirates to participate in the Arab Fiscal Forum on February 10th and the World Government Summit on February 11th where she will deliver keynote remarks. On February 16th and 17th, the Managing Director will participate in a two-day conference in Saudi Arabia on building resilience of emerging market economies. The conference is co-organized by the IMF and the Saudi Finance Ministry.

The First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath will travel to Japan to join the Article IV mission. She will participate in meetings with the authorities and hold a press conference on February 7th at 10:30 a.m. Tokyo time.

Finally, Deputy Managing Director Okamura will travel to Japan to participate in a jointly organized IMF-JICA conference on Economic and Fiscal Policy Challenges and Prospects for Asia. And this is scheduled for February 12 and 13.

And with that I will now open the floor for your questions. For those connecting virtually, please do turn on both your camera and the microphone when speaking. Let’s get started.

QUESTIONER: Hi,I was just wondering, you mentioned Ethiopia. How concerned are you about sort of countries with large IMF programs which also receive a substantial amount of support from USAID, considering the recent executive order, countries like Ethiopia and Ukraine, for example. Thanks.

KOZACK: Thanks very much. So with respect to your question, you know we are closely following the announcements and developments regarding USAID. At this stage it’s too early to gauge the precise impact on the countries that it supports. We’ll wait for clarity on the next steps, including any changes to the scope of the work of USAID.

QUESTIONER: So, the IMF mission is going to start working in Ukraine this month. Could you specify please what main issues will the Fund plan to focus on during the Seventh Review of the EFF program. And the second question is about the pension reform in Ukraine. Ukrainian government committed to starting this reform this year. Could you elaborate on what key changes the IMF expects from Ukraine on this area? Thank you.

KOZACK: Are there any other questions on Ukraine?

QUESTIONER: So, according to latest information, the review of the EFF is scheduled to begin this month. When the decision on the disbursement is going to be made and what amount of funds are going to be provided with this fund? And the follow-up, how much money is left in the EFF according to the current situation? Are there any plans to expand this program? Thank you.

QUESTIONER: Just to follow up on the question about Ethiopia. Obviously, the USAID cuts also affect Ukraine pretty significantly. And I wonder, you know, both in those cases and in all cases involving USAID funding, whether you are working with the US ED here and sort of sending a message about the impact. So, whether you’ve kind of figured it out across the enterprise and across all the countries that the IMF works with as well. Thanks.

KOZACK: Anything else on Ukraine online? Okay. So, on Ukraine, just to remind everyone of the context. So, on December 20th, the IMF’s Executive Board approved the Sixth Review of the EFF program. That enabled the disbursement of $1.1 billion and that brought total disbursements under the program to $9.8 billion. And the total size of the program, I believe, was $15.6 billion. So, the difference between those two is what would be remaining. At that time, the Board assessed that program performance remained strong. The authorities had met all of the benchmarks and prior actions for the review.

With respect to the next mission, the technical work for the upcoming review is underway. The mission dates are in the process of being finalized, and once we have them, we’ll be sure to communicate that. During this upcoming mission, the IMF staff will engage with the authorities on fiscal policy, including progress on revenue mobilization, monetary policies for 2025, and also progress in ensuring that debt sustainability and fiscal sustainability are restored. Staff will also be reviewing governance reforms, which remain a key pillar for the program. Based on the approved calendar of disbursements, subject to completion of the next review and, of course, subject to Board approval, Ukraine would have access to about $900 million for that next review.

With respect to pension reform, the government has committed to launch pension reforms this year in 2025, and they would be spearheaded by the Ministry of Social Policy. And those reforms are supported by external partners, notably the World Bank. What I can also add is that the authorities are in the process of developing a comprehensive set of proposals for pension reforms, but it’s too early to tell exactly what will be included in those proposals and what the changes may be.

And on the second question, I don’t really have much to add to what I already said, other than obviously we’re paying close attention and we’re awaiting further details.

QUESTIONER: Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Just on Syria, can you give us an update if the IMF has made any contact with the new government and if there are any plans to provide a loan package to the country? Thank you.

KOZACK: We’re closely monitoring, obviously, the situation in Syria, and we stand ready to support the international community’s efforts to assist Syria’s reconstruction as needed and when conditions allow. With respect to our engagement, we have not had a meaningful engagement with Syria since 2009, which was the time of the last Article IV Consultation, and this has been due to the difficult security situation in the country.

QUESTIONER: I have two questions, and they’re Caribbean-related questions. Can you provide a breakdown of the growth projections for the Caribbean region, more specifically, focusing on St. Kitts and Nevis, and what factors are driving the projected growth or decline outlook for the region, more specifically, the Caribbean region?

KOZACK: Okay. All right, let me step back and give a little bit of an overview of where we stand, what our view is on the Caribbean. So, following the rapid recovery after the Pandemic, real GDP growth in the region has normalized in recent years. Average GDP growth for the region, and this is excluding Guyana and Haiti, is estimated at 2.2 percent for 2023, 2.4 percent for 2024. And growth, our projection is for growth to remain relatively stable at 2.4 percent in 2025.

Broadly speaking, there are sort of two groups of countries in the Caribbean. So, we look at tourism-dependent economies, and there we see that growth in tourism economies has slowed as tourism arrivals have returned to pre-Pandemic levels. And then for commodity-exporting countries, they have faced challenges in the energy sector but have overall benefited from robust performance in their non-energy sector, and that has been driven by supportive and economic policies.

I can also add that inflation in most Caribbean countries has moderated significantly over the past few years, and the decline was due to lower global commodity prices and easing of supply chain disruptions. And we expect inflation to remain moderate in the years to come.

QUESTIONER: My question is on the comment by Managing Director Georgieva in Davos. MD mentioned in Davos clearly that more cooperation in the regional levels might be needed in the future in such a fragmented world and IMF would support such a movement. And could you give me some more detailed plans?

KOZACK: Thanks very much for the question. What the Managing Director noted in Davos is that we are seeing shifting patterns in global cooperation, in trade, and in other areas, including financial and capital flows. And of course, as a global institution, what will be important for us is as we engage with our membership, right, to take all of this into account to ensure that we can give our members the best policy advice within our mandate of economic and financial stability.

QUESTIONER: Thanks so much, Julie. I wanted to ask you very broadly about the changes that are happening in the United States and the tariffs that President Trump has announced. Now the implementation of the tariffs on Canada and Mexico has been delayed to March 1st. And, you know, it’s not clear what will happen there exactly. But one of the, you know, the tariffs on China have stayed in place. China has now announced tariffs that will kick in on February 10th. The IMF has warned repeatedly against rising protectionism and also kind of cataloged the thousands of trade restrictions that have been put in place and growing over time since COVID. Can you just walk us through what your perception is right now? The markets have been really all over the place, you know, sort of up and down depending on the day’s mood. Do you see this period of trade uncertainty that you warned about in the WEO, kind of really affecting and dampening global growth prospects? Thanks.

KOZACK: Thanks very much. Let me see if anyone else has questions on this broad topic.

QUESTIONER: Thank you. Yeah, I was just wondering, just to follow on the previous question, how you sort of think about the unpredictability of of these tariffs or the discussions around the tariffs, the uncertainty that that kind of brings up, and potentially how that could affect monetary policy. We’ve seen a lot of analysts talking about how they no longer expect the Fed to cut, or they expect the Fed to cut maybe only once this year. I’m just sort of wondering how you’re kind of in real time or as close to real time as you can, sort of taking on board that unpredictability when you think about the U.S. economy and the impacts for global growth. Thanks.

KOZACK: Great. And you also had a question.

QUESTIONER: Yes. Just following up with my colleagues. What sort of study, if any, has the IMF undertaken to better understand the global ramifications of these tariffs? We know they’re on pause for another 30 days or so or less. And what sort of impact would small states that are heavily dependent on the United States feel going forward?

KOZACK: And let me go online to see if anyone online has a question along these lines.

QUESTIONER: It is very similar. Just wondering the fact that it’s not just tariffs that have imposed on China, but the threat of tariffs on countries across the EU, Canada, and Mexico, and what effect that has on the global outlook. Thank you.

KOZACK: Okay. Thank you. Anyone else online want to come in on this topic? Okay. So, what I can say on this issue is we’re following the announcements by the U.S. with respect to tariffs on Chinese goods and potentially Canadian and Mexican goods. We’re following these announcements. We believe that it’s in the interest of all to find a constructive way forward to resolve this issue.

With respect to the assessment, assessing the full impact of these measures of tariffs, it’s actually going to depend on several factors, and let me lay those out. One of those factors is going to be the responses of the countries concerned. Another factor will be how firms and consumers react. And finally, how the measures evolve over time will also have an impact.

So, at this stage, that’s what I can share with you. We will, of course, have more information over time and in due course as the situation evolves.

QUESTIONER: Julie, I’m sorry, I think the question is, like, can you say something about what uncertainty does to the global economy? I mean, you’ve talked about this in WEO’s before, but do you see this as a period of heightened uncertainty now that Trump has taken office? And, you know, what is the impact of that uncertainty on things like investment and all this, you know, the sort of categories of economic indicators that we look at?

KOZACK: So, I think what I can say is, of course, I would refer you to the WEO for some of those analysis. And again, assessing the full impact of this will include all of the factors that I just laid out. And we would take into account issues related to uncertainty, market reactions, et cetera, in an assessment that we will ultimately undertake as the situation evolves and once we have more information.

Let me now go online. I see a couple of hands up. So, if you’re online, please go ahead and jump in.

QUESTIONER: Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. Well, has the letter of intent between the IMF and Argentina been prepared? Or let me ask in a different way. Are the negotiations between Argentina and the IMF already in the final stage?

KOZACK: Thanks. Other questions on Argentina?

QUESTIONER: Could you give me any updates on the negotiations of the new agreement and what are the most challenging issues they are facing right now? And also yesterday, Minister Luis Caputo said a new agreement will not imply a devaluation of the peso or the exit of the exchange restrictions the next day. Does the IMF agree with this statement?

KOZACK: Thanks. Others on Argentina?

QUESTIONER: Hi, Julie. I was wondering also if you could give some input regarding the meetings that the mission in Buenos Aires had, if they have only been talking to government officials or if they are also contacting unions and other opposition representatives. And also, the new crawling peg of 1 percent has started this February. I was wondering if that was a matter of discussion between the staff and the government.

KOZACK: Thanks, other questions?

QUESTIONER: Yes, thank you, Julie. So, my question is also on the crawling peg. So, is the IMF concerned about the greater exchange rate delay generated by this reduction of the crawling peg from 2 percent to 1 percent started the 1st of February?

KOZACK: Any other questions on Argentina? Okay, I hear two more. Please go ahead.

QUESTIONER: Hi, Julie, I wanted to know if Argentina has already paid a debt due on February 1st or when is it expected to do so? And if there is a meeting plan between Argentina authorities and the IMF network staff in Washington.

KOZACK: Thank you. Next.

QUESTIONER: Good morning. The question is if Argentina and the IMF comes to a new agreement, should it be like we are talking here in Argentina about $5 million? It will be for anything special, for example, to leave what we call cepo, or it depends on the Argentine authorities.

KOZACK: Any other questions on Argentina? Okay, I do not see anyone coming in.

So, on Argentina, what I can share is first that, as the Managing Director highlighted after her meeting with President Milei last month, we recognize Argentina’s tremendous progress in reducing inflation, stabilizing the economy, returning to growth, and with poverty finally starting to decline. We continue to engage constructively with the Argentine authorities. And a staff mission did recently visit Buenos Aires to advance discussions on a new program. The new program will aim to build on the gains that have been achieved so far, while also addressing the remaining challenges that the country faces. Constructive and frequent discussions continue, and we will provide further details on next steps when we have them.

I can also just add that to sustain early gains, there is a shared recognition between the Fund staff and the Argentine authorities about the need to continue to adopt a consistent set of fiscal, monetary, and foreign exchange policies while furthering growth-enhancing reforms. I also know that you have a lot of interest, and there were a lot of detailed questions here, but given that the discussions are continuing and there has been good progress so far, we do want to ensure that there is space for staff and the authorities to continue these constructive discussions. And of course, we will communicate more when we have further details.

Okay, let us go online because I see a few hands up.

QUESTIONER: My question is, when do we expect Board of Directors to discuss Egypt Fourth Review?

KOZACK: Do we have other questions on Egypt?

QUESTIONER: Hi, I’d like to ask, in addition to that, when the board does discuss Egypt’s Fourth Review, will it also be discussing an additional RSF for Egypt? There have been some reports that Egypt is in line to receive as much as $1 billion.

KOZACK: Other questions?

QUESTIONER: I just wanted to ask, in terms of the assessment of Egypt, but also other countries in the region, to what extent you are calculating additional costs and spending needs that have to do with Gaza and with the potential absorption of Palestinian refugees that has been proposed.

KOZACK: Okay, any other questions on Egypt? I see I have two questions that have come through the press center, which I will read aloud. So, the first is when will the IMF’s Executive Board complete the Fourth Review of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility for Egypt?

The second question is regarding the Executive Board’s approval of the Fourth Review of Egypt’s program, could it be this month? Does the IMF have updates on your projections for Egypt’s economy in light of regional updates?

Let me share with you where we are on Egypt. On December 24, the IMF staff and the Egyptian authorities reached a staff-level agreement on the Fourth Review of the EFF. This review is subject to approval of our Executive Board and subject to that approval, Egypt would have access to about $1.2 billion. Preparations for Board consideration are underway, and the Board meeting is expected to take place in the coming weeks.

In light of the difficult external conditions and challenging domestic environment, the IMF staff and the Egyptian authorities agreed to recalibrate the fiscal consolidation path, and this was agreed in December, I would highlight, to create fiscal space for critical social programs benefiting vulnerable groups and the middle class while ensuring debt sustainability.

Looking forward, reform priorities comprise lowering inflation, sustaining exchange rate flexibility, and liberalized access to foreign exchange. In addition, the program aims to boost domestic revenues. It aims to improve the business environment. It aims to accelerate disinvestment or divestment rather and leveling [of] the playing field between state-owned enterprises and the private sector. And of course, it also aims to enhance governance and transparency.

With respect to the question on the RSF, a policy package of reforms will be considered by the Fund’s Executive Board along with the Fourth Review of Egypt’s program.

And lastly, there is no connection at the moment between some of the announcements in Gaza and the and the Egypt program.

QUESTIONER: Hi, I wonder if I can just clarify. On the RSF, you say a policy package of reforms that also presumably comes with some additional funding. Can you confirm whether the amount of up to $1 billion is accurate?

KOZACK: I can’t confirm now the precise amount of the RSF, but of course as we have more information, we will provide that.

QUESTIONER: Thank you so much.

KOZACK: Let us go online. I see another hand online and then we will come back. Just one follow up, a follow up. Go ahead.

QUESTIONER: You cannot confirm the amount of the RSF. So just so we are clear, are you confirming that there are discussions around an RSF? Thanks.

KOZACK: Yes, there’s discussions on an RSF and the intention is to present the RSF with its package of reforms to our Executive Board at the same time as we present the Fourth Review of the EFF.

QUESTIONER: Question about Rwanda and Eastern Congo. I wanted to know, I know that the IMF has programs with both Rwanda and the DRC. And I wanted to know, you know, given the M23 incursion, the fall of Goma, how the programs can react to it, if there is anything you can say about that. And also, obviously, in El Salvador, they changed their cryptocurrency law, but it is also reported that they recently bought 50 bitcoins. So, some people are for the kind of national treasury. Some people are confused in terms of what the contours of the limitations put on. And I wonder if you could comment on that. Thanks a lot.

KOZACK: Okay, thank you. Any other questions on these countries? DRC, Rwanda, El Salvador?

Okay, let me start with DRC and I want to start by saying that, you know, we are deeply saddened by the loss of lives and the humanitarian crisis in the Eastern part of DRC. We are closely monitoring the situation, including its potential impact on neighboring countries and the region. And of course, we are also closely monitoring with respect to potential impact on our program.

With respect to Rwanda, what I can say on Rwanda is simply that the country continues to demonstrate a robust commitment to advancing policy reforms. And In December of 2024, our Executive Board concluded the Fourth Review of Rwanda’s programs.

With respect to El Salvador, just to step back and remind, IMF staff and the Salvadorian authorities reached a staff-level agreement on December 18th for a new arrangement, a new EFF arrangement. The arrangement would be for about $1.4 billion to support the government’s reform agenda, and this agreement is subject to approval by the IMF’s Executive Board.

I can also add that as explained in the press release that we issued following the staff-level agreement, the new Fund supported program aims to reduce the potential risks of the bitcoin project. Once in place, purchases of bitcoin will be confined under the program as agreed.

QUESTIONER: Thank you, Julie. Good morning, everyone. A few things. In Zimbabwe, when you expect a deal for the Staff Monitored Program? And on Lebanon, have you had any contact with the new government? Are there any signs that you are going to be able to work with them? Also on Senegal, can you give us any update on the resolution of the suspension of the financing program there? And lastly, are there any concerns of a drop in the commitment of funding from the U.S.? The 2025 project calls for the U.S. to stop putting money into the World Bank and the IMF. So, are you guys concerned about that?

KOZACK: Okay, thanks. Starting with Zimbabwe, I do not have an update for you for today on Zimbabwe, but we will come back to you bilaterally.

On Lebanon, what I can share is that, you know, we welcome the election of General Aoun as president of Lebanon, and we look forward to working with him and his new government to address the challenges facing the Lebanese economy. And just to remind, Lebanon continues to face profound economic challenges, and the conflict had exacerbated an already fragile macroeconomic and social situation. The election of the president, the formation of a new government, as well as the ceasefire, are critical to support policy actions and reforms that would allow the gradual return to the normalization of economic activity in Lebanon.

And what I can share on Senegal is that we are actively engaged in discussions with the authorities on addressing the misreporting case. Senegal’s Court of Auditors is expected to issue its final report this month. In parallel, IMF staff are working closely with the authorities to identify their capacity development needs and to implement corrective measures needed to address the root causes of the misreporting. These efforts are aimed at enhancing transparency, strengthening accountability, and preventing a recurrence of similar misreporting in the future.

And I think, on your final question, all I can say here is that the United States is the IMF’s largest shareholder, and it plays an extremely valuable role in helping ensure global financial stability. We have a long history of working with successive U.S. administrations, and we look forward to continuing to do so.

QUESTIONER: Thanks, Julie. Thank you for taking my question. When do you think we can expect the Executive Board’s approval on the next tranche for the Island Nation? And if there is any delay, what sort of reason is there? Is there more for the government to do? And secondly, the budget for the country is expected in a few weeks. Has the IMF given any input on preparing this budget, given the fact that the country is still in the EFF program?

KOZACK: Thanks. So, your question was on Sri Lanka? And yes, I see you nodding. So, if anyone else has questions on Sri Lanka, I can take them now. Okay. If not, let me go ahead with Sri Lanka.

So, on Sri Lanka on November 23rd, IMF staff and the Sri Lankan authorities reached a staff-level agreement on the Third Review of Sri Lanka’s EFF program. Once approved by the IMF’s Executive Board, Sri Lanka will have access to about $333 million in financing. And we expect the Board meeting to take place in the coming weeks.

Here, I would also just like to take the opportunity to emphasize that Sri Lanka’s ambitious reform agenda is delivering commendable outcomes. The economy expanded by 5.5 percent in the fourth — third quarter of 2024. Average headline and core inflation remain contained well below the target during the fourth quarter of 2024. And international reserves increased to $6.1 billion at the end of 2024.

With respect to the specific question on the budget, what I can share is that the staff-level agreement that I mentioned, which was reached in November, will be presented to the Executive Board or is subject to Executive Board approval, but it’s also contingent upon, among other things, implementation by the authorities of prior actions, including submission of the 2025 budget that is consistent with parameters identified under the program.

QUESTIONER: Most of the questions we had have been touched upon, and I would just reinforce as well what colleagues had said earlier about trying to get a sense of what all this uncertainty around tariffs will mean. I know there is a tendency to talk about the policies once they are implemented and the impact. But given the fact that policies get announced and withdrawn and swung around, it seems like the uncertainty has more of the impact than the actual policy. But all that seems to be covered. I will get to — actually, the only outstanding question we have now is if you could update us on the status of the Mozambique program and if there is a risk to that program’s existence right now, given what is going on. That is for our Africa colleagues. Everything else was covered. Thank you so much. I appreciate it.

KOZACK: Thank you very much. So, on Mozambique, what I can share is that the Article IV Consultation and the Fourth Review of the Extended Credit Facility, or ECF, were completed back in July of 2024. An IMF team will visit Maputo in the coming weeks to engage with the new government. We do remain engaged to support the country’s efforts toward remaining macroeconomic stability, accelerating growth and making growth more inclusive, in line with the arrangements. But given that there is a mission in the coming weeks, we will have more to report toward the end of that engagement.

QUESTIONER: Julie, regarding Russia, are there any developments concerning the postponed mission to Russia to evaluate progress in economy that was stopped in September due to necessity to gather additional information and make additional analysis. Anything we should expect this year, probably? Thank you.

KOZACK: Unfortunately, I don’t yet have an update for you or a timeline for the Article IV.

QUESTIONER: One final question. Thank you. Sorry, Julie, I’m going to try again with a sort of a similar question. But, you know, we are seeing a fundamental shift in the global and potentially in the support that is available for developing countries. The United States has ended foreign assistance. It has frozen funding for the World Food Program. It is pulling out of and talking about pulling out of the World Health Organization. These are institutions that are part, writ large, of the Bretton Woods system in which the IMF is such a key player.

So, I do not think it’s unfair of us to be asking for some guidance from you about how you at an institution like the IMF are approaching this period of time that is marked by uncertainty, not just for the markets or for global trade, but also for the institutions themselves. And, you know, we have seen some initial reports that Elon Musk’s DOGE employees or people who work with DOGE are starting to look at the World Bank and other institutions.

And I, you know, so I guess we want to hear something from you that is a little bit broader about the time that we’re in and what it means, because it obviously has implications for other countries, too, if they’re going to fill the gap in the developing thing. And, you know, you have been warning for years that the developing economies face a kind of perfect storm of different difficult circumstances. This seems like it adds to, to it. Thanks.

KOZACK: Thanks very much. Look, what I can say now is really what I’ve been saying. I really do not have much to add other than that we are a global institution. We have a clearly defined mandate to support economic and financial stability globally and just ultimately support growth and employment in the world economy. We are continuing as an institution to remain laser-focused, of course, on that mandate. And we, as a global institution, take our responsibility to serve our membership very, very seriously. And we will continue to do everything that we need to do to serve our membership in the best possible way. You know, we do, as I said, have a long history of working with successive U.S. administrations, and we look forward to continuing to do so as an institution for which the U.S. is our largest shareholder.

And with this, I’m going to bring this press briefing to an end. Thank you all for your participation today. As a reminder, this briefing is embargoed until 11:00 a.m. Eastern Time today. A transcript will be made available later on IMF.org, and as usual, in case of clarifications, additional queries, or anything else, please reach out to my colleagues at media@mf.org.

This does conclude our first press briefing of the year. I wish everyone a wonderful day and I do look forward to seeing you next time. Thank you all so much for joining, and please be safe given the weather outside here in D.C. Thank you, everyone.

* * * * *

IMF Communications Department

MEDIA RELATIONS

PRESS OFFICER:

Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

MIL OSI Economics –

February 7, 2025

MIL-OSI USA: Hoeven, Young Introduce Legislation to Fast Track Development of New Baseload Power Projects to Improve Grid Reliability

US Senate News:

Source: United States Senator for North Dakota John Hoeven

02.06.25

WASHINGTON – Senators John Hoeven (R-N.D.) and Todd Young (R-Ind.) today introduced the Guaranteeing Reliability through the Interconnection of Dispatchable (GRID) Power Act, legislation to remove delays in the development of new baseload power generation projects that would improve the reliability of the electrical grid. Specifically, the Hoeven-Young bill would:

Following rulemaking from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), authorize regional grid operators to give priority consideration for baseload generation projects seeking an interconnection agreement.
- The interconnection queue is where proposed projects wait before grid operators begin conducting their feasibility and system impact studies.
- As of 2023, the median wait time was five years for an interconnection agreement, significantly delaying the construction of critical projects.
- FERC would be required to initiate rulemaking to establish this process within 90 days of the bill’s enactment and finalize the rule within 180 days.
Establish a timeline of 60 days for FERC to act on baseload generation projects given priority consideration by grid operators.
- Timely approval of projects would help address the gap in reliable power generation created by Biden-Harris administration rules like the Clean Power Plan 2.0, which have accelerated the retirement of American baseload power plants.

“The reliability of the electric grid has been undermined for years by Green New Deal policies advanced under the Obama and Biden administrations, whose heavy-handed approach to regulation has forced the retirement of critically-needed baseload power plants. The result is an unstable grid, power shortages and more brownouts and blackouts,” said Senator Hoeven. “Our legislation seeks to reverse this trend by empowering grid operators to put baseload power generation projects at the front of the line for approval. Further, it sets deadlines for FERC, requiring the agency to promptly set up this priority approval process and to start acting on baseload power projects. Doing so will enhance our nation’s energy security and help ensure the power stays on when needed most.”

“Bureaucratic delays are slowing critical power projects and threatening the reliability of our electric grid. We need to cut through red tape to get more power online faster. This bill will strengthen our grid to promote American energy independence and drive economic growth—especially in states like Indiana, where reliable energy is vital to jobs and Hoosier workers,” said Senator Todd Young.

“Our interconnection queue is buckling under its own weight,” said Rep. Balderson. “Transmission providers are tasked with ensuring we have enough electricity to keep the lights on, but the growing backlog of projects is adding years to an already time-consuming process. This legislation would give grid operators the authority to identify and expedite the consideration of essential projects that will protect our grid’s reliability and provide the power needed to meet America’s growing demand.”

“Ensuring grid reliability is paramount, and this bill recognizes the role that always-on dispatchable power must play in meeting that need. A reliable power grid requires generation sources that can be counted on to meet demand at any time. Rep. Balderson and Senators Hoeven and Young’s leadership on this issue, alongside their continued advocacy for baseload power, highlights the need for policies that recognize the value of dispatchable energy resources—including coal, natural gas, and nuclear power—so that American families and businesses can depend on affordable and secure electricity. The Lignite Energy Council appreciates their commitment to energy reliability and the future of dependable power generation,” said Jason Bohrer, President and CEO of the Lignite Energy Council (LEC).

“AXPC applauds Congressman Balderson, Senator Hoeven and Senator Young’s efforts to prioritize projects that enhance grid reliability and capacity. As our nation’s power demand continues to rise, it is critical that we don’t delay consideration of power-generation projects, such as those that use natural gas, that can provide needed dispatchable power and enhance reliability,” said Anne Bradbury, CEO of American Exploration & Production Council (AXPC).

“Significant increases in electricity demand are expected in every region of the country, driven by data centers powering advancements in AI, domestic manufacturing, and the electrification of various sectors of the economy. Grid operators should be given significant flexibility to address current or future reliability concerns, including the creation of an accelerated interconnection for resources identified as critical to maintaining reliability. The bill appropriately requires stakeholder feedback and FERC approval before any changes are made, ensuring that all viewpoints are heard. EPSA is grateful to Congressman Balderson and Senators Hoeven and Young for their leadership on this critical issue and his commitment to electric grid reliability,” said Todd Snitchler, President & CEO of the Electric Power Supply Association (EPSA), the national trade association for independent power producers.

A companion to the bill was introduced in the House of Representatives by Congressman Troy Balderson (R-Ohio).

MIL OSI USA News –

February 7, 2025

MIL-OSI USA: Duckworth Holds Senate Floor to Protest Project 2025 Architect Russell Vought’s Cabinet Nomination and Trump’s Illegal Power Grabs That Are Harming the Middle Class and Our National Security

US Senate News:

Source: United States Senator for Illinois Tammy Duckworth

February 06, 2025

[WASHINGTON, D.C.] – Today, U.S. Senator Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) joined Senate Democrats’ 30-hour protest opposing Project 2025 architect Russell Vought’s nomination to serve as the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) under President Donald Trump. Holding the floor, Duckworth delivered an impassioned speech slamming Trump and unelected billionaire Elon Musk’s ongoing illegal power grabs—including his unlawful federal grant freeze and his shuttering of USAID—that are inflicting pain on middle-class Americans and endangering our national security. Video of Duckworth’s opening remarks can be found on the Senator’s YouTube and her full speech can be found on the Senator’s Twitter/X and Facebook.

Key quotes:

“Decades before I ever considered a career in politics, when I was just starting out in the Army, I raised my right hand and took an oath. I swore to support and defend the Constitution of the United States. I vowed to protect our nation against all enemies—foreign and domestic. And in this moment, at this precipice for our country, I need to make good on that promise. Because in the just 18 days since Donald Trump was inaugurated, we have witnessed an all-out assault on the system of checks and balances that our government was founded upon. We have seen the President both overreach and underdeliver: proving through executive orders and Twitter marching orders that he cares more about the billionaires who belong to Mar-a-Lago than the middle-class folks he pretended to care for on the campaign trail.”

“Last week, news broke that Trump had declared a blanket freeze on all federal grants. Ignoring the fact that Congress had already appropriated those funds. Ignoring that he point-blank did not have the authority to do so. Ignoring that his action would—and already has—hurt countless folks who rely on these grants for their most basic needs… He manufactured a crisis that has left that single mom working a double shift in a Southside nursing home unsure whether her Medicaid will be stripped away in the dark of the night. He’s created a crisis that has left Veterans wondering if they’ll be able to access the benefits they earned with the blood they were brave enough to shed for our country. He’s fabricated a nightmarish reality where homeless shelters might have to close their doors and turn back onto the streets the at-risk teenagers who rely on their care.”

“Elon Musk is unelected, unvetted and unqualified—he does not have the legal authority to dismantle entire agencies. Yet in Trump’s America, the size of his bank account and how far he is willing to bend the knee is enough for our President to bestow on him unchecked power. Musk is willing to bow down to Trump’s throne made of fool’s gold and false promises. So in return, Elon gets to run wild, run rampant. He for some reason gets to have full access to Americans’ social security numbers and Veterans’ personal information—for what reason, no one knows and all of us should fear. He gets to hijack our systems to enrich himself rather than the middle class. He gets to stomp on those in need, then fire anyone who dares stand up for what’s right—or what’s legal…They aren’t making America great. They’re making it authoritarian.”

Duckworth’s opening remarks as prepared below:

I take the verbal baton from Senator King after hours and hours of arguments from my Democratic colleagues, not because I woke up this morning with a strong desire to hear my own voice for as long as I could on the Senate floor, but because decades before I ever considered a career in politics—when I was just starting out in the Army—I raised my right hand and took an oath. I swore to support and defend the Constitution of the United States. I vowed to protect our nation against all enemies—foreign and domestic.

And in this moment, at this precipice for our country, I need to make good on that promise.

Because in the just 18 days since Donald Trump was inaugurated, we have witnessed an all-out assault on the system of checks and balances that our government was founded upon.

We have seen the President both overreach and underdeliver—proving through executive orders and Twitter marching orders that he cares more about the billionaires who belong to Mar-a-Lago than the middle-class folks he pretended to care for on the campaign trail.

Look, 250 years ago this April, a few brave patriots grabbed their muskets and risked their lives at Lexington and Concord, sacrificing for a country that was still more of an idea, more of an ideal, than reality.

They did so because they could no longer stand living under a tyrannical leader.

They did so because they had dreamt up the notion of a government of, by and for the people—and they knew that a system based on checks and balances was the best way to keep this new nation’s leaders from turning into the kind of tyrant they’d fled England to escape. A system of checks and balances.

Well, two weeks into Trump’s America, the only checks I see are the ones going into the pockets of Trump’s rich friends. The only balance I see is Trump’s balancing act between ripping off the middle class and endangering our national security.

Our system of government is being eroded before our eyes. It is being perverted to work for the few—the billionaires—rather than the many, the people.

And it is sickening to see so many of my colleagues on the other side of the aisle put their hands over their eyes and pretend they don’t see what’s happening, refusing to speak up as our President turns into more of a despot every day, as his power-grabs get more extreme, more insidious, more cruel.

Even if we took the full 30 hours of debate on this nomination, I don’t think we could get through all the ways that Trump’s absolute disregard for the rule of law over the past two weeks has already harmed America—and Americans. But let me use my time to try.

Last week, news broke that Trump had declared a blanket freeze on all federal grants. Ignoring the fact that Congress had already appropriated those funds. Ignoring that he point-blank did not have the authority to do so. Ignoring that his action would—and already has—hurt countless folks who rely on these grants for their most basic needs.

President Trump may think that he “owned the Libs” by causing havoc in our federal government. But what he’s really done is create a reality where his own voters who depend on groups like Meals on Wheels aren’t sure how they’re going to put food on the table next week.

He may think he “destroyed woke culture” with this freeze. But no. No, he didn’t. Instead, he manufactured a crisis that has left that single mom working a double shift in a Southside nursing home unsure whether her Medicaid will be stripped away in the dark of the night.

He’s created a crisis that has left Veterans wondering if they’ll be able to access the benefits they earned with the blood they were brave enough to shed for our country.

He’s fabricated a nightmarish reality where homeless shelters might have to close their doors and turn back onto the streets the at-risk teenagers who rely on their care.

Listen, when I was in high school, my family struggled. We had no money and some days had no food. I still remember going to the grocery store and counting out our last five one-dollar food stamps to buy as much bread and bologna as possible—then praying we’d have enough to last the week. I still remember the hours my dad spent walking from payphone to payphone, hoping to find just 50 cents so my brother and I could buy lunch at school the next afternoon. A lot of times, that hot lunch at school was the only meal I could count on.

So as a former hungry kid, and now as a mom of two little girls, I cannot imagine the pain of parents who rely on school meals to feed their own kids and who are now terrified that Trump’s vanity project of a federal freeze will force their five-year-old to go hungry as the grants that fund cafeteria meal programs may now get gutted.

Shame on Donald Trump. And shame on the Republicans who can’t seem to find the ounce of courage necessary to stand up and say what all of us in this Chamber so obviously know: That this is wrong. That this is outrageous. And that this is a wild, unlawful abuse of power.

But Trump didn’t stop with the grant freeze. Last weekend, he gave Elon Musk—the world’s richest person—the power to cut off aid from the world’s most vulnerable people. He gave him the authority to dismantle an entire agency in one illegal, fell swoop. Together, they are now actively gutting USAID, completely undermining the United States’ national security and global standing—knowingly, intentionally—jeopardizing the safety of countless innocent people worldwide who rely on the organization for humanitarian assistance.

Now, bad actors in the PRC and Russia will be able to step in to fill the leadership vacuum that Trump created—forcing folks in need across the world to turn to our adversaries, not us, for help.

Let me be clear: USAID is an organization dedicated to doing good around the globe—but the good that it does also has a direct, tangible impact on the safety and economic security of families here at home.

It is an organization that helps allies detect fentanyl—in part so we can stop it before it comes across our own borders.

It’s an organization that help feeds starving families worldwide—but it does so using 2 billion dollars of food purchased from American farmers, with the paychecks going into their red, white and blue pockets so they can keep their family farms for another generation.

It is an organization that helps stop global pandemics. And it’s an organization that works to make sure the poorest children in the poorest countries don’t die from drinking dirty water—a mission that also happens to be critical to our national strength, as when countries experience water insecurity, they’re more likely to undergo political instability as well, increasing the odds that their governments fail and power falls into the wrong hands—a sequence of events that often leads to the kind of immigration crisis we’re already facing at our border.

I know there is waste, fraud and abuse in our government—and I am all for rooting that out. In fact, I’ve written and passed legislation to do just that. But eliminating an entire agency with such a vital mission is not the way to go about this.

USAID makes up just 1% of our federal budget. And these short-sighted cuts will end up costing the American taxpayer even more in the long term, as there will be more global instability, more migrations crises, more pandemics to contend with as a result of this frankly idiotic decision.

It’s ironic. The guy charged with making our government more efficient is making it more costly and more chaotic. Case in point: He’s threatening to use American troops to bring home USAID workers if they don’t leave their overseas posts in the next 30 days—a move that in itself would cost Americans an estimated 100 million dollars.

Elon Musk is unelected, unvetted and unqualified—he does not have the legal authority to dismantle entire agencies. Yet in Trump’s America, the size of his bank account and how far he is willing to bend the knee is enough for our President to bestow on him unchecked power.

Musk is willing to bow down to Trump’s throne made of fool’s gold and false promises. So in return, Elon gets to run wild, run rampant.

He for some reason gets to have full access to Americans’ social security numbers and Veterans’ personal information—for what reason, no one knows and all of us should fear.

He gets to hijack our systems to enrich himself rather than the middle class.

He gets to stomp on those in need, then fire anyone who dares stand up for what’s right—or what’s legal.

Trump and Musk are not bringing back the good ole days of Ronald Reagan. Reagan believed in international aid. He is the one whose name is on the front of USAID’s building.

They aren’t making America great. They’re making it authoritarian. And we should all be asking ourselves—if we let them gut USAID, then what’s next?

The answer is the Department of Education. And then your Social Security. Your Medicaid. The things you and your families need to get by are right behind.

Look, Trump ran his campaign on the idea of lowering costs for the middle class. He said he’d reverse inflation on day one. Well, day one has come and gone. So has day two, three, four.

Here we are, weeks in, and all he’s done is take actions that have hurt everyday Americans to help his rich buddies afford another private jet. Under his wise stewardship, egg prices have skyrocketed. Inflation remains sky-high. A needless trade war seems to be getting closer every day, which could raise the price of gas and groceries even further. And all of us are in greater danger from bad actors the world-over.

Enough is enough. Enough was enough a very long time ago. Donald Trump is unchecked. The scales of our government have become unbalanced. Every day those scales tip more and more away from serving the needs of the working class and toward feeding the greed of the billionaires who pal around with the President on the golf course.

It was Ronald Reagan who once said, quote: “[T]he genius of our constitutional system is its recognition that no one branch of government alone could be relied on to preserve our freedoms… The great safeguard of our liberty is the totality of the constitutional system, with no one part getting the upper hand.”

Reagan also described the Constitution as a “covenant” — a covenant that, quote: “[W]e have made not only with ourselves, but with all of mankind.”

Today, I am asking my Republican colleagues to honor the covenant so cherished by their own conservative hero, Ronald Reagan. I am asking them to heed his words. To heed his warning. To heed his plea to us all.

Under Donald Trump, our government is not of, by or for the people. It is of, by and for the people with the deepest pockets. “E pluribus unum,” “out of many one,” is supposed to signify the strength of our union—the solidarity of our nation.

Do not let Donald Trump pervert it to mean that out of the many people, he is the only one who matters.

To my colleagues on the other side of the aisle: All I am asking of you today is to do the jobs you were elected to do.

All I am begging for is that you make good on the oath you took when you were first sworn into this chamber: To support and defend our Constitution.

Trump is acting as if he believes that the Constitution is just an old, yellowing piece of paper that he can crumble up at his will. My colleagues, you know better. And you know your constituents deserve better.

Please, find the courage to stand up and say so. It’s the least each of us can do for the country that we are lucky enough to have been elected to protect.

You can do that, today, by voting no on Trump’s latest unqualified, unfit cabinet nominee, Russell Vought:

A man who doesn’t even care to hide that he will happily rubber-stamp Trump’s worst instincts.

-30-

MIL OSI USA News –

February 7, 2025

MIL-OSI Russia: IMF Press Briefing Transcript – Julie Kozack

Source: IMF – News in Russian

February 6, 2025

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND PRESS BRIEFING

Washington, D.C. Thursday, February 6, 2025

P R O C E E D I N G S

KOZACK: Good morning, everyone. It’s great to see you all, here in person and online. Welcome to the first IMF press briefing for 2025. I’m Julie Kozak, Director of the Communication Department. As usual, this briefing is embargoed until 11:00 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time. I’ll start with a few announcements and then I’ll move to take your questions in person, on WebEx, and via the Press Center.