Category: Middle East

  • India advises nationals to evacuate Tehran amid escalating Iran-Israel conflict

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    India on Tuesday urged its nationals and Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) in Iran to evacuate Tehran, shift to safer locations, and remain in close contact with the Indian Embassy amid growing tensions in the region.

    As the Israel-Iran conflict entered its fifth day, hostilities continued to escalate. Several Iranian missiles were fired at Israel, triggering air raid sirens in Haifa and dozens of other cities and communities across northern Israel and the occupied Golan Heights, according to the Israeli military.

    “All Indian nationals and PIOs who can move out of Tehran using their own resources are advised to relocate to a safe location outside the city,” the Indian Embassy in Iran posted on X.

    “All Indian nationals currently in Tehran and not in touch with the Embassy are requested to contact the Embassy of India in Tehran immediately and provide their location and contact numbers. Kindly contact: +989010144557; +989128109115; +989128109109,” the Embassy added.

    The Ministry of External Affairs has also set up a 24×7 Control Room in view of the ongoing developments in Iran and Israel. The helpline numbers shared by the Ministry are: 1800-11-8797 (toll-free), +91-11-23012113, +91-11-23014104, +91-11-23017905, and WhatsApp number +91-9968291988. Emails may be sent to: situationroom@mea.gov.in.

    Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump has also urged people to evacuate Tehran amid the intensifying conflict.

    “Iran should have signed the deal I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday.

    The U.S. President also announced that he would cut short his visit to the Group of Seven (G7) Summit in Canada to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East.

    In the latest developments, Bazan Group—Israel’s largest oil refinery company—announced that all of its facilities at the Haifa Port have been completely shut down due to damage caused by an Iranian missile strike.

  • MIL-Evening Report: Regime change wouldn’t likely bring democracy to Iran. A more threatening force could fill the vacuum

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Thomas, Lecturer in Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    The timing and targets of Israel’s attacks on Iran tell us that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s short-term goal is to damage Iran’s nuclear facilities in order to severely diminish its weapons program.

    But Netanyahu has made clear another goal: he said the war with Iran “could certainly” lead to regime change in the Islamic republic.

    These comments came after an Israeli plan to assassinate the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reportedly rebuffed by United States President Donald Trump.

    It’s no secret Israel has wanted to see the current government of Iran fall for some time, as have many government officials in the US.

    But what would things look like if the government did topple?

    How is power wielded in today’s Iran?

    Founded in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran has democratic, theocratic and authoritarian elements to its governing structure.

    The founding figure of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, envisioned a state run by Islamic clerics and jurists who ensured all policies adhered to Islamic law.

    As Iran was a constitutional monarchy before the revolution, theocratic elements were effectively grafted on top of the existing republican ones, such as the parliament, executive and judiciary.

    Iran has a unicameral legislature (one house of parliament), called the Majles, and a president (currently Masoud Pezeshkian). There are regular elections for both.

    But while there are democratic elements within this system, in practice it is a “closed loop” that keeps the clerical elite in power and prevents challenges to the supreme leader. There is a clear hierarchy, with the supreme leader at the top.

    Khamenei has been in power for more than 35 years, taking office following Khomeini’s death in 1989. The former president of Iran, he was chosen to become supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of Islamic jurists.

    While members of the assembly are elected by the public, candidates must be vetted by the powerful 12-member Guardian Council (also known as the Constitutional Council). Half of this body is selected by the supreme leader, while the other half is approved by the Majles.

    The council also has the power to vet all candidates for president and the parliament.

    In last year’s elections, the Guardian Council disqualified many candidates from running for president, as well as the Majles and Assembly of Experts, including the moderate former president Hassan Rouhani.

    As such, the supreme leader is increasingly facing a crisis of legitimacy with the public. Elections routinely have low turnout. Even with a reformist presidential candidate in last year’s field – the eventual winner, Masoud Pezeshkian – turnout was below 40% in the first round.

    Freedom House gives Iran a global freedom score of just 11 out of 100.

    The supreme leader also directly appoints the leaders in key governance structures, such as the judiciary, the armed forces and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

    The all-powerful IRGC

    So, Iran is far from a democracy. But the idea that regime change would lead to a full democracy that is aligned with Israel and the US is very unlikely.

    Iranian politics is extremely factional. Ideological factions, such as the reformists, moderates and conservatives, often disagree vehemently on key policy areas. They also jockey for influence with the supreme leader and the rest of the clerical elite. None of these factions is particularly friendly with the US, and especially not Israel.

    There are also institutional factions. The most powerful group in the country is the clerical elite, led by the supreme leader. The next most powerful faction would be the IRGC.

    Originally formed as a kind of personal guard for the supreme leader, the IRGC’s fighting strength now rivals that of the regular army.

    The IRGC is extremely hardline politically. At times, the IRGC’s influence domestically has outstripped that of presidents, exerting significant pressure on their policies. The guard only vocally supports presidents in lockstep with Islamic revolutionary doctrine.

    In addition to its control over military hardware and its political influence, the guard is also entwined with the Iranian economy.

    The IRGC is heavily enriched by the status quo, with some describing it as a “kleptocratic” institution. IRGC officials are often awarded state contracts, and are allegedly involved in managing the “black economy” used to evade sanctions.

    Given all of this, the IRGC would be the most likely political institution to take control of Iran if the clerical elite were removed from power.

    In peacetime, the general consensus is the IRGC would not have the resources to orchestrate a coup if the supreme leader died. But in a time of war against a clear enemy, things could be different.

    Possible scenarios post-Khamenei

    So, what might happen if Israel were to assassinate the supreme leader?

    One scenario would be a martial law state led by the IRGC, formed at least in the short term for the purposes of protecting the revolution.

    In the unlikely event the entire clerical leadership is decimated, the IRGC could attempt to reform the Assembly of Experts and choose a new supreme leader itself, perhaps even supporting Khamenei’s son’s candidacy.

    Needless to say, this outcome would not lead to a state more friendly to Israel or the US. In fact, it could potentially empower a faction that has long argued for a more militant response to both.

    Another scenario is a popular uprising. Netanyahu certainly seems to think this is possible, saying in an interview in recent days:

    The decision to act, to rise up this time, is the decision of the Iranian people.

    Indeed, many Iranians have long been disillusioned with their government – even with more moderate and reformist elements within it. Mass protests have broken out several times in recent decades – most recently in 2022despite heavy retaliation from law enforcement.

    We’ve seen enough revolutions to know this is possible – after all, modern Iran was formed out of one. But once again, new political leadership being more friendly to Israel and the West is not a foregone conclusion.

    It is possible for Iranians to hold contempt in their hearts for both their leaders and the foreign powers that would upend their lives.

    Andrew Thomas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Regime change wouldn’t likely bring democracy to Iran. A more threatening force could fill the vacuum – https://theconversation.com/regime-change-wouldnt-likely-bring-democracy-to-iran-a-more-threatening-force-could-fill-the-vacuum-259042

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Regime change wouldn’t likely bring democracy to Iran. A more threatening force could fill the vacuum

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andrew Thomas, Lecturer in Middle East Studies, Deakin University

    The timing and targets of Israel’s attacks on Iran tell us that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s short-term goal is to damage Iran’s nuclear facilities in order to severely diminish its weapons program.

    But Netanyahu has made clear another goal: he said the war with Iran “could certainly” lead to regime change in the Islamic republic.

    These comments came after an Israeli plan to assassinate the supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was reportedly rebuffed by United States President Donald Trump.

    It’s no secret Israel has wanted to see the current government of Iran fall for some time, as have many government officials in the US.

    But what would things look like if the government did topple?

    How is power wielded in today’s Iran?

    Founded in 1979 after the Iranian Revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran has democratic, theocratic and authoritarian elements to its governing structure.

    The founding figure of the Islamic republic, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, envisioned a state run by Islamic clerics and jurists who ensured all policies adhered to Islamic law.

    As Iran was a constitutional monarchy before the revolution, theocratic elements were effectively grafted on top of the existing republican ones, such as the parliament, executive and judiciary.

    Iran has a unicameral legislature (one house of parliament), called the Majles, and a president (currently Masoud Pezeshkian). There are regular elections for both.

    But while there are democratic elements within this system, in practice it is a “closed loop” that keeps the clerical elite in power and prevents challenges to the supreme leader. There is a clear hierarchy, with the supreme leader at the top.

    Khamenei has been in power for more than 35 years, taking office following Khomeini’s death in 1989. The former president of Iran, he was chosen to become supreme leader by the Assembly of Experts, an 88-member body of Islamic jurists.

    While members of the assembly are elected by the public, candidates must be vetted by the powerful 12-member Guardian Council (also known as the Constitutional Council). Half of this body is selected by the supreme leader, while the other half is approved by the Majles.

    The council also has the power to vet all candidates for president and the parliament.

    In last year’s elections, the Guardian Council disqualified many candidates from running for president, as well as the Majles and Assembly of Experts, including the moderate former president Hassan Rouhani.

    As such, the supreme leader is increasingly facing a crisis of legitimacy with the public. Elections routinely have low turnout. Even with a reformist presidential candidate in last year’s field – the eventual winner, Masoud Pezeshkian – turnout was below 40% in the first round.

    Freedom House gives Iran a global freedom score of just 11 out of 100.

    The supreme leader also directly appoints the leaders in key governance structures, such as the judiciary, the armed forces and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

    The all-powerful IRGC

    So, Iran is far from a democracy. But the idea that regime change would lead to a full democracy that is aligned with Israel and the US is very unlikely.

    Iranian politics is extremely factional. Ideological factions, such as the reformists, moderates and conservatives, often disagree vehemently on key policy areas. They also jockey for influence with the supreme leader and the rest of the clerical elite. None of these factions is particularly friendly with the US, and especially not Israel.

    There are also institutional factions. The most powerful group in the country is the clerical elite, led by the supreme leader. The next most powerful faction would be the IRGC.

    Originally formed as a kind of personal guard for the supreme leader, the IRGC’s fighting strength now rivals that of the regular army.

    The IRGC is extremely hardline politically. At times, the IRGC’s influence domestically has outstripped that of presidents, exerting significant pressure on their policies. The guard only vocally supports presidents in lockstep with Islamic revolutionary doctrine.

    In addition to its control over military hardware and its political influence, the guard is also entwined with the Iranian economy.

    The IRGC is heavily enriched by the status quo, with some describing it as a “kleptocratic” institution. IRGC officials are often awarded state contracts, and are allegedly involved in managing the “black economy” used to evade sanctions.

    Given all of this, the IRGC would be the most likely political institution to take control of Iran if the clerical elite were removed from power.

    In peacetime, the general consensus is the IRGC would not have the resources to orchestrate a coup if the supreme leader died. But in a time of war against a clear enemy, things could be different.

    Possible scenarios post-Khamenei

    So, what might happen if Israel were to assassinate the supreme leader?

    One scenario would be a martial law state led by the IRGC, formed at least in the short term for the purposes of protecting the revolution.

    In the unlikely event the entire clerical leadership is decimated, the IRGC could attempt to reform the Assembly of Experts and choose a new supreme leader itself, perhaps even supporting Khamenei’s son’s candidacy.

    Needless to say, this outcome would not lead to a state more friendly to Israel or the US. In fact, it could potentially empower a faction that has long argued for a more militant response to both.

    Another scenario is a popular uprising. Netanyahu certainly seems to think this is possible, saying in an interview in recent days:

    The decision to act, to rise up this time, is the decision of the Iranian people.

    Indeed, many Iranians have long been disillusioned with their government – even with more moderate and reformist elements within it. Mass protests have broken out several times in recent decades – most recently in 2022despite heavy retaliation from law enforcement.

    We’ve seen enough revolutions to know this is possible – after all, modern Iran was formed out of one. But once again, new political leadership being more friendly to Israel and the West is not a foregone conclusion.

    It is possible for Iranians to hold contempt in their hearts for both their leaders and the foreign powers that would upend their lives.

    Andrew Thomas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Regime change wouldn’t likely bring democracy to Iran. A more threatening force could fill the vacuum – https://theconversation.com/regime-change-wouldnt-likely-bring-democracy-to-iran-a-more-threatening-force-could-fill-the-vacuum-259042

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: The Middle East is a major flight hub. How do airlines keep passengers safe during conflict?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Natasha Heap, Program Director for the Bachelor of Aviation, University of Southern Queensland

    Screenshot June 17 2025, Courtesy of Flightradar24

    The Middle East is a region of intense beauty and ancient kingdoms. It has also repeatedly endured periods of geopolitical instability over many centuries.

    Today, geopolitical, socio-political and religious tensions persist. The world is currently watching as longstanding regional tensions come to a head in the shocking and escalating conflict between Israel and Iran.

    The global airline industry takes a special interest in how such tensions play out. This airspace is a crucial corridor linking Europe, Asia and Africa.

    The Middle East is now home to several of the world’s largest international airlines: Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways. These airlines’ home bases – Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, respectively – have become pivotal hubs in international aviation.

    Keeping passengers safe will be all airlines’ highest priority. What could an escalating conflict mean for both the airlines and the travelling public?

    Safety first

    History shows that the civil airline industry and military conflict do not mix. On July 3 1988, the USS Vincennes, a US navy warship, fired two surface-to-air missiles and shot down Iran Air Flight 655, an international passenger service over the Persian Gulf.

    More recently, on July 17 2014, Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 was shot down over eastern Ukraine as the battle between Ukrainian forces and pro-Russian separatists continued.

    Understandably, global airlines are very risk-averse when it comes to military conflict. The International Civil Aviation Organization requires airlines to implement and maintain a Safety Management System (SMS).

    One of the main concerns – known as “pillars” – of the SMS is “safety risk management”. This includes the processes to identify hazards, assess risks and implement risk mitigation strategies.

    The risk-management departments of airlines transiting the Middle East region will have been working hard on these strategies.

    Headquartered in Montreal, Canada, the International Civil Aviation Organization has strict requirements and protocols to keep passengers safe.
    meunierd/Shutterstock

    Route recalculation

    The most immediate and obvious evidence of such strategies being put in place are changes to aircraft routing, either by cancelling or suspending flights or making changes to the flight plans. This is to ensure aircraft avoid the airspace where military conflicts are flaring.

    At the time of writing, a quick look at flight tracking website Flightradar24 shows global aircraft traffic avoiding the airspace of Iran, Iraq, Syria, Israel, Jordan, Palestine and Lebanon. The airspace over Ukraine is also devoid of air traffic.

    Rerouting, however, creates its own challenges. Condensing the path of the traffic into smaller, more congested areas can push aircraft into and over areas that are not necessarily equipped to deal with such a large increase in traffic.

    Having more aircraft in a smaller amount of available safe airspace creates challenges for air traffic control services and the pilots operating the aircraft.

    More time and fuel

    Avoiding areas of conflict is one of the most visible forms of airline risk management. This may add time to the length of a planned flight, leading to higher fuel consumption and other logistical challenges. This will add to the airlines’ operating costs.

    There will be no impact on the cost of tickets already purchased. But if the instability in the region continues, we may see airline ticket prices increase.

    It is not just the avoidance of airspace in the region that could place upward pressure on the cost of flying. Airliners run on Jet-A1 fuel, produced from oil.

    If Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, the “world’s most important oil transit chokepoint”, this could see the cost of oil, and in turn Jet-A1, significantly increase. Increasing fuel costs will be passed on the paying passenger. However, some experts believe such a move is unlikely.

    A major hub

    The major aviation hubs in the Middle East provide increased global connectivity, enabling passengers to travel seamlessly between continents.

    Increased regional instability has the potential to disrupt this global connectivity. In the event of a prolonged conflict, airlines operating in and around the region may find they have increased insurance costs. Such costs would eventually find their way passed on to consumers through higher ticket prices.

    The Middle East is a major connecting hub for global aviation.
    Art Konovalov/Shutterstock

    Passenger confidence

    Across the globe, airlines and governments are issuing travel advisories and warnings. The onus is on the travelling public to stay informed about changes to flight status, and potential delays.

    Such warnings and advisories can lead to a drop in passenger confidence, which may then lead to a drop in bookings both into and onwards from the region.

    Until the increase in instability in the Middle East, global airline passenger traffic numbers were larger than pre-pandemic figures. Strong growth had been predicted in the coming decades.

    Anything that results in falling passenger confidence could negatively impact these figures, leading to slowed growth and affecting airline profitability.

    Despite high-profile disasters, aviation remains the safest form of transport. As airlines deal with these challenges they will constantly work to keep flights safe and to win back passenger confidence in this unpredictable situation.

    Natasha Heap does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The Middle East is a major flight hub. How do airlines keep passengers safe during conflict? – https://theconversation.com/the-middle-east-is-a-major-flight-hub-how-do-airlines-keep-passengers-safe-during-conflict-259034

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why is there so much concern over Iran’s nuclear program? And where could it go from here?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Zala, Senior Lecturer, Politics & International Relations, Monash University

    Maxar satellite imagery overview of the Fordow enrichment facility located southwest of Tehran. Maxar/Contributor/Getty Images

    Conflict between Israel and Iran is intensifying, after Israeli airstrikes on key nuclear sites and targeted assassinations last week were followed by counter-strikes by Iran on Israel.

    These attacks have come at a moment of growing concern over Iran’s nuclear program, and have prompted larger questions over what this means for the global non-proliferation regime.

    The short answer: it’s not good.

    Where was uranium being enriched in Iran?

    There are two main enrichment sites: one at Natanz and one at Fordow. There’s also a facility at Isfahan, which, among other things, is focused on producing important materials for the enrichment process.

    Natanz has a hall of centrifuges, which are cylindrical devices that spin incredibly quickly to enrich uranium for creating either the fuel for a nuclear power program or the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon.

    Much the same is happening at Fordow, as far as we know. It is a smaller facility than Natanz but much of it is buried deep under a mountain.

    To make it weapons grade, uranium ought to be close to 90% purity. It is possible to create a bomb with uranium enriched to a lower level, but it is a much less efficient method. So around 90% is the target.

    The key nuclear sites being targeted by Israel.
    CC BY-NC

    The Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Iran signed in 2015 (in exchange for the US lifting sanctions) limited Iran’s enrichment capacities and its stockpile of enriched uranium. But Trump ripped up that deal in 2018.

    Iran remained in compliance for a while, even while the US resumed its economic sanctions, but in recent years, has started to enrich to higher levels – up to about 60%. We know Iran still hasn’t got weapons-grade enriched uranium, but it’s a lot closer than it was to being able to build a bomb.

    And worse, much of their stockpile of enriched uranium will now be effectively unaccounted for because of the strikes by Israel. There are no inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) happening there now and probably won’t be for some time.

    Iran could also say some of its stockpile was destroyed in the strikes – and we’ve got no way of knowing if that’s true or not.

    Both Natanz and Fordow have extensive, hardened, underground facilties. The above-ground facility at Natanz, at least, appears to have been badly damaged, based on satellite photos.

    Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, said the centrifuges at Natanz were likely to have been “severely damaged if not destroyed altogether”. This was likely caused by power cuts, despite the fact the underground facility was not directly hit.

    Grossi said there was no visible damage to the underground facilities at Fordow, which is hidden some 80–90 metres beneath a mountain.

    Unlike the United States, Israel doesn’t have the very deep penetrating ordinance that can totally destroy such deeply buried structures.

    So a key question is: has Israel done enough damage to the centrifuges inside? Or have Iran’s efforts at fortifying these facilities been successful? We may not know for some time.

    Was Iran trying to hide its activities?

    In the past, Iran had a clandestine nuclear weapons program laying out the foundation of how it would build a bomb.

    We know that because, as part of the diplomatic process associated with the previous nuclear deal that Trump killed off, the IAEA had issued an assessment confirming that Iran previously had this plan in breach of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

    Iran hadn’t actually built weapons or done a test, but it had a plan. And that plan, Project AMAD, was shelved in 2003. We also know that thanks to Israel. In 2018, Israeli special forces undertook a raid in downtown Tehran and stole secret documents revealing this.

    When the Obama administration managed to negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015, part of the deal was Iran had to accept greater oversight of its nuclear facilities. It had to accept restrictions, limit the number of centrifuges and couldn’t maintain large stockpiles of enriched uranium. This was in exchange for the US lifting sanctions.

    These restrictions didn’t make it impossible for Iran to build a weapon. But it made it extremely difficult, particularly without being detected.

    What did the IAEA announce last week and why was it concerning?

    Last week, the IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution saying that Iran was in breach of its obligations under the NPT.

    This related to Iran being unable to answer questions from inspectors about nuclear activities being undertaken at undeclared sites.

    That’s the first time in 20 years the IAEA has come to this finding. This is not why Israel attacked Iran. But it helps explain the exact timing. It gives Israel a degree of cover, perhaps even legitimacy. That legitimacy is surely limited however, given that Israel itself is not a signatory of the NPT and has maintained its own nuclear arsenal for more than half a century.

    In response to the IAEA announcement last week, Iran announced it would plan to build a third enrichment site in addition to Fordow and Natanz.

    Can a militarised approach to counter-proliferation backfire?

    Yes.

    When Israel hit the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981, it put Iraq’s nuclear program back by a few years. But the Iraqis redoubled their efforts. By the end of that decade, Iraq was very close to a fully-fledged nuclear weapons program.

    Presumably, Israel’s thinking is it will have to redo these strikes – “mowing the grass”, as they say – in an effort to hinder Iran’s attempts to reconstitute the program.

    Overnight, Iranian lawmakers also drafted a bill urging Iran to withdraw from the NPT. That is entirely legal under the treaty. Article X of the treaty allows that if “extraordinary events” jeopardise a state party’s “supreme interests” then there’s a legal process for withdrawal.

    Only one state has done that since the NPT was opened for signature in 1968: North Korea. Now, North Korea is a nuclear-armed state.

    Iran seems likely to withdraw from the treaty under this article. It has experienced a full-scale attack from another country, including strikes on key infrastructure and targeted assassinations of its top leaders and nuclear scientists. If that doesn’t count as a risk to your supreme interests, then I don’t know what does.

    Iran’s withdrawal would pose a significant challenge to the wider non-proliferation regime. It may even trigger more withdrawals from other countries.

    If Iran withdraws from the NPT, the next big questions are how much damage has Israel done to the centrifuge facilities? How quickly can Iran enrich its uranium stockpile up to weapons grade?

    And, ultimately, how much damage has been done to the ever-fragile nuclear non-proliferation regime based around the NPT?

    Benjamin Zala has received funding from the Stanton Foundation, a US philanthropic group that funds nuclear research. He is an honorary fellow at the University of Leicester on a project that is funded by the European Research Council.

    ref. Why is there so much concern over Iran’s nuclear program? And where could it go from here? – https://theconversation.com/why-is-there-so-much-concern-over-irans-nuclear-program-and-where-could-it-go-from-here-259052

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Why is there so much concern over Iran’s nuclear program? And where could it go from here?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Benjamin Zala, Senior Lecturer, Politics & International Relations, Monash University

    Maxar satellite imagery overview of the Fordow enrichment facility located southwest of Tehran. Maxar/Contributor/Getty Images

    Conflict between Israel and Iran is intensifying, after Israeli airstrikes on key nuclear sites and targeted assassinations last week were followed by counter-strikes by Iran on Israel.

    These attacks have come at a moment of growing concern over Iran’s nuclear program, and have prompted larger questions over what this means for the global non-proliferation regime.

    The short answer: it’s not good.

    Where was uranium being enriched in Iran?

    There are two main enrichment sites: one at Natanz and one at Fordow. There’s also a facility at Isfahan, which, among other things, is focused on producing important materials for the enrichment process.

    Natanz has a hall of centrifuges, which are cylindrical devices that spin incredibly quickly to enrich uranium for creating either the fuel for a nuclear power program or the key ingredient for a nuclear weapon.

    Much the same is happening at Fordow, as far as we know. It is a smaller facility than Natanz but much of it is buried deep under a mountain.

    To make it weapons grade, uranium ought to be close to 90% purity. It is possible to create a bomb with uranium enriched to a lower level, but it is a much less efficient method. So around 90% is the target.

    The key nuclear sites being targeted by Israel.
    CC BY-NC

    The Obama-era Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action Iran signed in 2015 (in exchange for the US lifting sanctions) limited Iran’s enrichment capacities and its stockpile of enriched uranium. But Trump ripped up that deal in 2018.

    Iran remained in compliance for a while, even while the US resumed its economic sanctions, but in recent years, has started to enrich to higher levels – up to about 60%. We know Iran still hasn’t got weapons-grade enriched uranium, but it’s a lot closer than it was to being able to build a bomb.

    And worse, much of their stockpile of enriched uranium will now be effectively unaccounted for because of the strikes by Israel. There are no inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) happening there now and probably won’t be for some time.

    Iran could also say some of its stockpile was destroyed in the strikes – and we’ve got no way of knowing if that’s true or not.

    Both Natanz and Fordow have extensive, hardened, underground facilties. The above-ground facility at Natanz, at least, appears to have been badly damaged, based on satellite photos.

    Rafael Grossi, the head of the IAEA, said the centrifuges at Natanz were likely to have been “severely damaged if not destroyed altogether”. This was likely caused by power cuts, despite the fact the underground facility was not directly hit.

    Grossi said there was no visible damage to the underground facilities at Fordow, which is hidden some 80–90 metres beneath a mountain.

    Unlike the United States, Israel doesn’t have the very deep penetrating ordinance that can totally destroy such deeply buried structures.

    So a key question is: has Israel done enough damage to the centrifuges inside? Or have Iran’s efforts at fortifying these facilities been successful? We may not know for some time.

    Was Iran trying to hide its activities?

    In the past, Iran had a clandestine nuclear weapons program laying out the foundation of how it would build a bomb.

    We know that because, as part of the diplomatic process associated with the previous nuclear deal that Trump killed off, the IAEA had issued an assessment confirming that Iran previously had this plan in breach of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).

    Iran hadn’t actually built weapons or done a test, but it had a plan. And that plan, Project AMAD, was shelved in 2003. We also know that thanks to Israel. In 2018, Israeli special forces undertook a raid in downtown Tehran and stole secret documents revealing this.

    When the Obama administration managed to negotiate the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2015, part of the deal was Iran had to accept greater oversight of its nuclear facilities. It had to accept restrictions, limit the number of centrifuges and couldn’t maintain large stockpiles of enriched uranium. This was in exchange for the US lifting sanctions.

    These restrictions didn’t make it impossible for Iran to build a weapon. But it made it extremely difficult, particularly without being detected.

    What did the IAEA announce last week and why was it concerning?

    Last week, the IAEA Board of Governors passed a resolution saying that Iran was in breach of its obligations under the NPT.

    This related to Iran being unable to answer questions from inspectors about nuclear activities being undertaken at undeclared sites.

    That’s the first time in 20 years the IAEA has come to this finding. This is not why Israel attacked Iran. But it helps explain the exact timing. It gives Israel a degree of cover, perhaps even legitimacy. That legitimacy is surely limited however, given that Israel itself is not a signatory of the NPT and has maintained its own nuclear arsenal for more than half a century.

    In response to the IAEA announcement last week, Iran announced it would plan to build a third enrichment site in addition to Fordow and Natanz.

    Can a militarised approach to counter-proliferation backfire?

    Yes.

    When Israel hit the Osirak nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981, it put Iraq’s nuclear program back by a few years. But the Iraqis redoubled their efforts. By the end of that decade, Iraq was very close to a fully-fledged nuclear weapons program.

    Presumably, Israel’s thinking is it will have to redo these strikes – “mowing the grass”, as they say – in an effort to hinder Iran’s attempts to reconstitute the program.

    Overnight, Iranian lawmakers also drafted a bill urging Iran to withdraw from the NPT. That is entirely legal under the treaty. Article X of the treaty allows that if “extraordinary events” jeopardise a state party’s “supreme interests” then there’s a legal process for withdrawal.

    Only one state has done that since the NPT was opened for signature in 1968: North Korea. Now, North Korea is a nuclear-armed state.

    Iran seems likely to withdraw from the treaty under this article. It has experienced a full-scale attack from another country, including strikes on key infrastructure and targeted assassinations of its top leaders and nuclear scientists. If that doesn’t count as a risk to your supreme interests, then I don’t know what does.

    Iran’s withdrawal would pose a significant challenge to the wider non-proliferation regime. It may even trigger more withdrawals from other countries.

    If Iran withdraws from the NPT, the next big questions are how much damage has Israel done to the centrifuge facilities? How quickly can Iran enrich its uranium stockpile up to weapons grade?

    And, ultimately, how much damage has been done to the ever-fragile nuclear non-proliferation regime based around the NPT?

    Benjamin Zala has received funding from the Stanton Foundation, a US philanthropic group that funds nuclear research. He is an honorary fellow at the University of Leicester on a project that is funded by the European Research Council.

    ref. Why is there so much concern over Iran’s nuclear program? And where could it go from here? – https://theconversation.com/why-is-there-so-much-concern-over-irans-nuclear-program-and-where-could-it-go-from-here-259052

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • PM Modi arrives in Calgary for G7 Summit

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Calgary, Canada on Tuesday (local time) to participate in the G7 Summit, where he will meet with global leaders and share India’s views on key international challenges.
     
    As part of his ongoing three-nation tour — which began in Cyprus and will conclude in Croatia — PM Modi said that he would highlight the concerns of the Global South during the Summit. In a post on X, the Prime Minister said, “Landed in Calgary, Canada, to take part in the G7 Summit. Will be meeting various leaders at the Summit and sharing my thoughts on important global issues. Will also be emphasising the priorities of the Global South.”
     
    Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that PM Modi will participate in G7 discussions on the future of energy security. These discussions will focus on diversification, technological innovation, infrastructure, and investment, aimed at ensuring access and affordability in a changing global landscape.
     
    “At the invitation of PM @MarkJCarney, PM @narendramodi arrives in Alberta, Canada for the G7 Summit,” Jaiswal wrote on X. “PM will be participating in @G7 discussions on energy security… and will also hold several bilateral meetings on the sidelines.”
     
    PM Modi’s arrival in Canada comes at a time of diplomatic recalibration between the two nations, following a period of strained relations.
     
    Other invitees to the G7 meeting are Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil, and Lee Jae-Myung of South Korea, and Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese of Australia and Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa.
     
    The G7 Summit is an annual gathering of leaders from the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Canada, and the European Union. This year’s edition marks PM Modi’s sixth straight attendance at the Summit.
     
    (ANI)
  • PM Modi arrives in Calgary for G7 Summit

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Calgary, Canada on Tuesday (local time) to participate in the G7 Summit, where he will meet with global leaders and share India’s views on key international challenges.
     
    As part of his ongoing three-nation tour — which began in Cyprus and will conclude in Croatia — PM Modi said that he would highlight the concerns of the Global South during the Summit. In a post on X, the Prime Minister said, “Landed in Calgary, Canada, to take part in the G7 Summit. Will be meeting various leaders at the Summit and sharing my thoughts on important global issues. Will also be emphasising the priorities of the Global South.”
     
    Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that PM Modi will participate in G7 discussions on the future of energy security. These discussions will focus on diversification, technological innovation, infrastructure, and investment, aimed at ensuring access and affordability in a changing global landscape.
     
    “At the invitation of PM @MarkJCarney, PM @narendramodi arrives in Alberta, Canada for the G7 Summit,” Jaiswal wrote on X. “PM will be participating in @G7 discussions on energy security… and will also hold several bilateral meetings on the sidelines.”
     
    PM Modi’s arrival in Canada comes at a time of diplomatic recalibration between the two nations, following a period of strained relations.
     
    Other invitees to the G7 meeting are Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil, and Lee Jae-Myung of South Korea, and Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese of Australia and Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa.
     
    The G7 Summit is an annual gathering of leaders from the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Canada, and the European Union. This year’s edition marks PM Modi’s sixth straight attendance at the Summit.
     
    (ANI)
  • Indian stock market opens lower amid weak Asian cues

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    Indian benchmark indices opened in the red on Tuesday, tracking weak cues from Asian markets, with early trade witnessing selling pressure in auto, IT, and pharma sectors.

    At around 9:28 a.m., the BSE Sensex was down 186.35 points or 0.23 per cent at 81,609.80, while the NSE Nifty fell 68.20 points or 0.27 per cent to trade at 24,878.30.

    The Nifty Bank index slipped 30.10 points or 0.05 per cent to 55,914.80. The Nifty Midcap 100 index was trading lower by 36.40 points or 0.06 per cent at 58,732.10, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 declined 66.30 points or 0.36 per cent to 18,482.90.

    Market sentiment remained cautious as investors reacted to geopolitical tensions and global cues. Analysts noted that former US President Donald Trump’s latest comments on Iran have raised concerns about the broader geopolitical outlook.

    Despite escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, global markets have shown resilience. The decline in the US volatility index (CBOE VIX) suggests that sharp corrections are unlikely unless the conflict escalates further, market experts said.

    “The key reason for the market’s resilience is the participation of retail investors, who continue to see every market dip as a buying opportunity. Elevated valuations are not discouraging retail flows,” said Dr. V.K. Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

    Among the Sensex constituents, Axis Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, NTPC, PowerGrid, Adani Ports, ICICI Bank, SBI, TCS, and HCL Tech were the top gainers in early trade. On the flip side, Tata Motors, Sun Pharma, IndusInd Bank, UltraTech Cement, Titan, and Bajaj Finance were among the top losers.

    On the institutional side, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹2,287.69 crore on June 16, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) remained net buyers with purchases worth ₹5,607.64 crore.

    In Asian markets, indices in Bangkok, Jakarta, Japan, and Seoul were trading in the green, while those in Hong Kong and China witnessed losses.

    In the previous trading session, US markets ended higher. The Dow Jones closed at 42,515.09, up 317.30 points or 0.75 per cent. The S&P 500 gained 56.14 points or 0.94 per cent to end at 6,033.11, and the Nasdaq rose 294.39 points or 1.52 per cent to 19,701.21.

    Attention now turns to the US Federal Reserve, which begins its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged.

    “Comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be closely watched, especially in the context of easing inflation and continued economic strength,” said Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities.

    — IANS

  • Iran strikes Israeli broadcaster as Tehran seeks diplomatic exit through Gulf intermediaries

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    The Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB), Iran’s national broadcaster, came under direct attack in what Israeli military officials described as retaliation for strikes on Israeli media infrastructure. The assault on IRIB marks a troubling escalation in the targeting of civilian facilities by both sides.

    On Monday, Iranian missiles struck Israel’s Tel Aviv and the port city of Haifa, destroying homes and causing civilian casualties as the conflict between the two nations entered its fourth consecutive day. In response, Israel launched airstrikes on buildings housing Iranian state-owned media organizations in Tehran, including the IRIB television facility—hit during a live broadcast.

    The intensifying confrontation has prompted urgent diplomatic efforts by Gulf nations and raised alarm among global leaders gathered at the G7 Summit over the risk of a wider regional war.

    Tehran has reached out to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Oman, urging these Gulf intermediaries to persuade U.S. President Donald Trump to use his influence on Israel to agree to an immediate ceasefire. In exchange, Iran has signaled openness to renewed flexibility in nuclear negotiations. Gulf leaders and their top diplomats are reportedly engaged in round-the-clock communication with Tehran, Washington, and other capitals in an effort to contain what is now considered the most serious direct confrontation between the two longstanding rivals in West Asia.

    The diplomatic push comes amid ongoing missile and drone strikes targeting each other’s military, nuclear, and civilian infrastructure. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday did not rule out a potential strike on Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, stating that such an action could “end the conflict.” However, according to a U.S. official, President Trump has reportedly rejected Israeli plans to assassinate the Iranian leader.

    The Israeli military issued evacuation warnings to residents and personnel in target areas of Tehran before conducting the strikes. Similar warnings were also issued within Israel.

    Speaking at the G7 Summit in Canada, President Trump urged Iran to return to the negotiating table over its nuclear program to help resolve the crisis. “They should talk, and they should talk immediately before it’s too late,” Trump said. While the United States has not provided direct military support to Israel so far, the president has indicated that future involvement remains a possibility.

    Despite mounting destruction and civilian casualties, there are currently no clear signs of de-escalation. Iran has expressed a willingness to return to nuclear negotiations if Israeli attacks cease, but both nations appear entrenched in their positions.

    As a security precaution, the Israeli Civil Aviation Authority has announced a complete closure of airspace over major cities, while Iran has imposed similar restrictions on civilian flights over Tehran and other urban centers. Both militaries have issued evacuation advisories to civilians in high-risk zones, though their effectiveness in preventing casualties remains uncertain.

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: New Zealand’s Foreign Policy Reset: Progress & Reflections

    Source: New Zealand Government

    [Keynote speech to the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs (NZIIA) national conference, Takina Convention Centre, Wellington]

    Good afternoon.

    National Chair of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Dr James Kember, Executive Director Dr Hamish McDougall, members of the Diplomatic Corps, distinguished guests. 

    It is a pleasure to speak here today at the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs’ Annual Conference.

    The NZIIA contributes to, and facilitates, discussion and debate about New Zealand’s foreign policy, and we thank you for hosting us. 

    In May last year, it was the NZIIA that hosted us in Parliament for a speech that addressed the challenges we face in a more fractious world and outlined how the Coalition Government was bringing more energy, more urgency and a sharper focus to our foreign policy.

    Just over a year later, we thought we’d reflect on the Government’s Foreign Policy Reset, where progress has been made, and the foreign policy themes we have accentuated in the year since we last spoke to you.

    This is also the time for a clear-eyed appraisal of New Zealand’s strategic circumstances, and the sharply deteriorating international outlook, as evidenced by the protracted illegal war in Ukraine and in the catastrophic escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. 

    Twenty-five years ago, New Zealand enjoyed a world that was becoming more open, more democratic, and more free. Trade liberalisation was gathering pace. Effective multilateralism helped underpin a liberal- oriented international rules-based system.

    Turning to the world of today – and looking out to tomorrow – the changes are stark. Uncertainty is now pervasive across the globe. We face an international operating environment under serious strain, one that poses complex challenges while exposing structural weaknesses in that operating environment.

    While geography remains a constant, distance is no buffer. There is no opting out from the geopolitical realities we face. So, this is a timely reminder of what is at stake, and why our foreign policy matters for all New Zealanders. 

    Foreign policy can often be perceived as far removed from New Zealanders’ daily lives. But recognising how our foreign and trade policy underpins New Zealanders’ security and prosperity is crucial to the open and mature national conversation we must continue to have in our vibrant democracy.

    While operating for the most part quietly and in the background, our foreign and trade policy helps deliver outcomes that matter for all of us.

    From the export dollars our farmers and manufacturers earn in key markets and helping to remove barriers for our exporters.

    • To new international market opportunities being opened for our innovative services firms.
    • To the international rules that provide us with our Exclusive Economic Zone and its resources, preserve Antarctica as a zone of peace and science, and which govern behaviours in outer space and cyber space.
    • To the international security partnerships that enable us to tackle common threats, such as the flow of illegal drugs into our country, or terrorist threats.
    • To the standards that underpin everyday fundamentals we all rely on, whether international air and sea shipping, our telecommunication devices, or biosecurity measures.
    • And to the opportunities for young New Zealanders to travel and work overseas and return with new skills and experiences.

    So while foreign and trade policy may seem abstract, how we act in the world matters for New Zealanders every day.

    This fundamental link between how we advance our interests abroad, and our security and prosperity at home, is why the Coalition Government prioritises foreign policy as a crucial instrument to achieve both. That, after all, is how we maintain support from the taxpayers who underwrite our efforts.

    This demands being present, engaged, and explaining ourselves. There remains no substitute for in-person diplomacy, relationship building, and educating the public about the choices we face. 

    Now, our critics complain that we are leading a radical repositioning of our foreign policy. But only in one very narrow and important respect are they right. We have radically increased the tempo of our diplomacy, in recognition of our predecessors’ torpor, but also because of the sheer magnitude of the challenges we face. 

    Since being sworn into office in November 2023, we have visited 46 countries, several more than once, met with well over 100 Presidents, Prime Ministers, Deputy Prime Ministers and Foreign Ministers, and had over 400 political engagements. 

    Through this engagement we are better informed about the world around us, as are counterparts about New Zealand’s foreign policy perspectives and the values that underpin them.

    And we continue the important duty of communicating New Zealand’s foreign policy priorities to the public and explaining the nature of our changing strategic circumstances and the choices that flow from them.

    We push ourselves to work harder, and explain ourselves better, because New Zealand has understood these past 80 years, that as a small state geographically isolated from the great landmasses of Asia, Europe and the Americas, only through the conduct of a highly active foreign policy can we advance our national interests, defend our region, and make it more prosperous.

    Foreign Policy Reset: Progress

    Distinguished guests, in our speech to you last year we outlined the six priorities that form the Government’s foreign policy reset. Today’s speech is an opportunity to recap the ambition that Cabinet set out and highlight key areas of effort and progress.

    First, we are significantly increasing our focus and resources applied to South and Southeast Asia. 

    With 34 outward Prime Ministerial and Ministerial visits to the region since February 2024 – advancing new business and investment opportunities, while expanding defence and security cooperation, and upgrading a range of key relationships – we are investing in the wider region, commensurate with its strategic and economic significance.

    In 2025, we have upgraded our Viet Nam relationship to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, and we are working hard to similarly achieve upgrades in our ASEAN and Singapore relationships.

    It was a pleasure to again visit India last month, and to contribute to this important and growing relationship, including welcoming the negotiations underway towards a comprehensive free trade agreement.

    Complementing this investment in South and Southeast Asia, the Government also remains focused on the depth and breadth of our important relationships across North Asia. Our bilateral relationship with China is New Zealand’s largest trade relationship. It’s proven mutually beneficial and significant for both countries.  The relationship is supported by regular people exchange, including political dialogue, business, education and tourism links. And we are pleased that with the Prime Minister visiting China this week we will have completed reciprocal visits between our respective counterparts over the past two years.

    Our long-standing political connections enable frank and comprehensive discussions on areas of disagreement, including those that stem from our different histories and different systems. Indeed, it is a sign of healthy relationships that we can and do express disagreement on important issues. 

    Japan and Korea are two likeminded democracies in the Indo-Pacific, who view the region and the world in the same way we do and are increasingly central to achieving our interests.

    Second, we are renewing and reinvigorating meaningful engagement with traditional and likeminded partners. 

    Our circumstances underscore the importance of an even deeper strategic partnership with Australia as well as other partners with which we share a deep history and enduring interests.

    Consultations with Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong in Adelaide last month highlighted that New Zealand has no closer or more important partner that Australia, our one formal ally, with whom we share interests across the full expanse of regional and international issues.

    We have grown the important partnership with the United Kingdom, including advancing trade opportunities and reiterating our shared commitment to tackling international security challenges. 

    Similarly, enhanced engagement with the European Union and its member states is a significant focus for New Zealand.

    The change in the US Administration in January has inevitably generated changes in the priorities and direction of US foreign policy. But the significance of the US’ continued role in the security and stability in the Indo-Pacific and as an essential economic partner remains, and this continues to be the focus of our engagement, including during discussions with Secretary Rubio in Washington and Admiral Paparo, Commander of US INDOPACOM in Honolulu.

    Third, we are sustaining a deeper focus on the Pacific, working in collaboration with Pacific Leaders to protect and advance our interconnected security, economic, social and environmental interests.

    In a more complex global environment, coming together as a region is even more important.  Which is why Pacific regionalism sits at the core of our Pacific approach, with the Pacific Islands Forum at its centre. 

    We will always be members of the same Pacific family. A series of cross-party Parliamentary delegations into the region, alongside our exhaustive travel around Micronesia, Melanesia, and Polynesia, have demonstrated that New Zealand’s commitment to the region spans the political spectrum and is foundational to who we are as a country.

    Our Pacific-focused International Development Cooperation programme – reshaped to achieve more impact by doing fewer, bigger, projects better – is helping to build climate and economic resilience, strengthen governance and security, and to lift heath, education and connectivity.

    Fourth, we are targeting our multilateral engagement on priority global and transboundary issues, working to defend and preserve core principles of international law that underpin our security and prosperity.

    Respect for the UN Charter principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity, and the prohibition on the use of force is essential to avoid a return to a world where the exercise of hard power reigns supreme.

    Where these principles are flagrantly violated, such as in Russia’s continued illegal invasion of Ukraine, we must stand against such aggression and lend our efforts to achieving a just and sustainable peace.

    New Zealand’s response to the Israel-Hamas conflict is also grounded in upholding international law, including international humanitarian law.

    While the multilateral system has served us all well for many decades, it most certainly is not without flaws. We recognise that defending, strengthening, and modernising the rules-based system also means supporting reform of multilateral institutions. 

    We actively support efforts to make these institutions more responsive, efficient and effective to ensure they are focused on making a difference for our citizens, and we feel an urgency around necessary reform.   

    Fifth, we are supporting new groupings that advance and defend our interests and capabilities. 

    The relationship between the Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) countries – Australia, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand – is an example of this new support. 

    Deeper political-level engagement between NATO and the IP4, begun by predecessor governments, has allowed us to raise the profile of shared strategic challenges in the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific, and to drive enhanced cooperation on priority areas including cyber, artificial intelligence, and defence capability.

    This effort will be given further momentum next week, when the Prime Minister travels to The Hague for engagements with fellow IP4 partners and NATO countries, during the NATO Summit.

    And sixth, we are working hard to advance the Government’s goal of seriously lifting New Zealand’s export value over the next decade. 

    This means harnessing every potential gain from our trade and economic agenda; promoting New Zealand as a place to do business; and creating opportunities for our world-class exporters. 

    This Government has conducted eleven successful trade missions, as we work towards the target of 20 missions involving New Zealand businesses during this Parliamentary term.

    New trade agreements concluded with the United Arab Emirates and the Gulf Cooperation Council will open doors and provide greater certainty as well as create more chances for our exporters to grow and diversify their businesses. 

    As will our efforts to leverage and expand existing trade agreements – such as through the United Kingdom’s accession last year to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).

    Mid-term reflections

    In recent speeches we have outlined that the priorities identified in the foreign policy reset are underpinned by three key concepts:

    • The realism that informs the Government’s foreign policy.
    • Our view of the crucial role that diplomacy needs to play in our troubled world.
    • And our unshakeable belief that small states matter and that all states are equal.

    In fashioning foreign policy responses, the realist tendency is to err on the side of prudence. That is, we are careful in what we say, and when and how we say it. 

    We leave it to the small cabal of ill-informed critics of our foreign policy approach to shout impotently at clouds. They are good at that. Take AUKUS. In our speech to the NZIIA last year we were candid about what AUKUS Pillar 2 was, why the Ardern/Hipkins Governments launched work on it, and we laid out the necessary pre-conditions for participation. 

    A year on, there is nothing new to report, which you might think says something about the current dynamic, but still critics insist dark clouds have formed around our independent foreign policy. Their arguments were ill-informed and rubbish then. They’re ill-informed and rubbish now.

    We said we would update New Zealanders on Pillar 2 when there was something new to say. And we will.       

    In conditions of great uncertainty and disorder, such as we are currently experiencing, prudence is a both a logical and necessary guiding principle for a small state like New Zealand.

    We see our responsibility to the New Zealand people, in conducting foreign policy, as making cool-headed calculations of the country’s own strengths and weaknesses as we fashion our responses to events large or small that impact upon New Zealand’s interests.

    For a small state like New Zealand, the role of diplomacy is a crucial instrument of our foreign policy. In our complex geostrategic environment never has effective diplomacy been more needed. 

    Summing up our wide foreign policy discussions in our National Statement to the United Nations last year, we said it has never been more apparent just how much diplomacy and the tools of statecraft matter in our troubled world. 

    Since war and instability is everyone’s calamity, diplomacy is the business of us all. We have observed that at this moment in time the ability to talk with, rather than at, each other has never been more needed. 

    Those who share our values, and even those who do not, gain from understanding each other’s position, even when we cannot agree. From understanding comes opportunity and from diplomacy comes compromise, the building block of better relations between nations. We said we need more diplomacy, more engagement, more compromise. 

    As Churchill also said in his later years, “meeting jaw-to-jaw is better than war.”

    The inherent tensions and imbalances in the global order – between the desire for a rules-based order that protects small states against aggression, and the unjustified exercise of power by certain Great Powers – have only grown over the last past eight decades. 

    Yet small states matter now as much as they did then. New Zealand holds the foundational belief that all states are equal and that our voices matter as much as more powerful states. Adopting a prudential approach to our diplomacy also means not reacting to everything that happens around us. 

    In closing, it’s fitting to return to the broad theme of the event – New Zealand’s foreign policy in a contested world.

    The outlook is challenging, to say the least, and we – government and public alike – must grapple with the reality of the fraught strategic circumstances that New Zealand faces.

    We have many friends in the world, but no-one owes New Zealand a living. It is incumbent upon us to chart our course, assert our priorities, cultivate our partnerships, and pursue our interests with the vigour we have injected into our diplomatic efforts these past 18 months.

    Amidst serious challenges and risk, there are also opportunities. Realising these means that we must continue to bring energy, urgency and a sharper focus to our foreign policy. 

    Through the Foreign Policy Reset, we are focused on doing exactly that and ensuring that we continue to deliver security and prosperity for all New Zealanders.

    Thank you

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • India well positioned to regain strong export growth as global trade conditions likely to stabilize in H2 of 2025: Experts

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    India’s trade performance in May 2025 has shown strength and stability despite uncertain global conditions, according to views shared by industry experts and economists. FIEO President S C Ralhan highlighted that India’s total exports, including goods and services, increased by 2.8 per cent to USD 71.12 billion in May 2025, up from USD 69.20 billion in May 2024. The growth was mainly driven by services such as software, consultancy, and financial services.

    Even though merchandise exports dipped slightly to USD 38.73 billion, the continued service momentum helped support overall performance.”Exporters are adapting well to a tough global environment,” said Ralhan. “The ability to sustain export growth despite logistical disruptions, especially in the Middle East, is a testament to the sector’s agility and policy support. “On the import front, merchandise imports eased to USD 60.61 billion, while overall imports (goods and services) stood at USD 77.75 billion, down from USD 78.55 billion in May 2024.

    He added, “With appropriate policy interventions and global conditions expected to stabilise in the second half of 2025, India is well-positioned to regain a strong export growth trajectory”. Pankaj Chadha, Chairman of EEPC India, stated that the engineering exports sector has managed to stay steady despite continued international challenges.

    While there was a minor decline of 0.8 per cent in engineering goods exports in May 2025, down to USD 9.89 billion from USD 9.97 billion in the same month last year, the overall numbers remain encouraging. He said, “Overall global situation, however, remains volatile. Uncertainty has only been mounting due to geopolitical tensions in key parts of the world.

    The latest Israel-Iran conflict threatens to multiply the challenges for the exporting community. Apart from a rise in input costs as a result of a jump in crude prices, there is heightened concern around the blocking of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran in case tensions further intensify.

    Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, noted that India’s merchandise trade deficit reduced significantly to USD 21.9 billion in May 2025 from USD 26.4 billion in April. This is expected to help contain the current account deficit (CAD) for Q1 FY2026 to around USD 13 billion, or 1.3 per cent of GDP.

    She said, “If crude oil prices average around USD 75/barrel over the remainder of this fiscal, we foresee the CAD at 1.2-1.3 per cent of GDP for FY2026. While India’s exports contracted slightly in May 2025, this was entirely led by oil exports. Non-oil exports posted a YoY growth for the second consecutive month, led by electronic goods, garments, organic and inorganic chemicals, and marine products, which helped to moderate the trade deficit. Further, the YoY contraction in oil and gold imports helped to contain the merchandise trade deficit”. (ANI)

  • India well positioned to regain strong export growth as global trade conditions likely to stabilize in H2 of 2025: Experts

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    India’s trade performance in May 2025 has shown strength and stability despite uncertain global conditions, according to views shared by industry experts and economists. FIEO President S C Ralhan highlighted that India’s total exports, including goods and services, increased by 2.8 per cent to USD 71.12 billion in May 2025, up from USD 69.20 billion in May 2024. The growth was mainly driven by services such as software, consultancy, and financial services.

    Even though merchandise exports dipped slightly to USD 38.73 billion, the continued service momentum helped support overall performance.”Exporters are adapting well to a tough global environment,” said Ralhan. “The ability to sustain export growth despite logistical disruptions, especially in the Middle East, is a testament to the sector’s agility and policy support. “On the import front, merchandise imports eased to USD 60.61 billion, while overall imports (goods and services) stood at USD 77.75 billion, down from USD 78.55 billion in May 2024.

    He added, “With appropriate policy interventions and global conditions expected to stabilise in the second half of 2025, India is well-positioned to regain a strong export growth trajectory”. Pankaj Chadha, Chairman of EEPC India, stated that the engineering exports sector has managed to stay steady despite continued international challenges.

    While there was a minor decline of 0.8 per cent in engineering goods exports in May 2025, down to USD 9.89 billion from USD 9.97 billion in the same month last year, the overall numbers remain encouraging. He said, “Overall global situation, however, remains volatile. Uncertainty has only been mounting due to geopolitical tensions in key parts of the world.

    The latest Israel-Iran conflict threatens to multiply the challenges for the exporting community. Apart from a rise in input costs as a result of a jump in crude prices, there is heightened concern around the blocking of the Straits of Hormuz by Iran in case tensions further intensify.

    Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist at ICRA, noted that India’s merchandise trade deficit reduced significantly to USD 21.9 billion in May 2025 from USD 26.4 billion in April. This is expected to help contain the current account deficit (CAD) for Q1 FY2026 to around USD 13 billion, or 1.3 per cent of GDP.

    She said, “If crude oil prices average around USD 75/barrel over the remainder of this fiscal, we foresee the CAD at 1.2-1.3 per cent of GDP for FY2026. While India’s exports contracted slightly in May 2025, this was entirely led by oil exports. Non-oil exports posted a YoY growth for the second consecutive month, led by electronic goods, garments, organic and inorganic chemicals, and marine products, which helped to moderate the trade deficit. Further, the YoY contraction in oil and gold imports helped to contain the merchandise trade deficit”. (ANI)

  • Will share my thoughts on important global issues, says PM Modi ahead of G7 Summit

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrived in Calgary, Canada on Tuesday (local time) to participate in the G7 Summit, where he will meet with global leaders and share India’s views on key international challenges.
     
    As part of his ongoing three-nation tour — which began in Cyprus and will conclude in Croatia — PM Modi said that he would highlight the concerns of the Global South during the Summit. In a post on X, the Prime Minister said, “Landed in Calgary, Canada, to take part in the G7 Summit. Will be meeting various leaders at the Summit and sharing my thoughts on important global issues. Will also be emphasising the priorities of the Global South.”
     
    Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal said that PM Modi will participate in G7 discussions on the future of energy security. These discussions will focus on diversification, technological innovation, infrastructure, and investment, aimed at ensuring access and affordability in a changing global landscape.
     
    “At the invitation of PM @MarkJCarney, PM @narendramodi arrives in Alberta, Canada for the G7 Summit,” Jaiswal wrote on X. “PM will be participating in @G7 discussions on energy security… and will also hold several bilateral meetings on the sidelines.”
     
    PM Modi’s arrival in Canada comes at a time of diplomatic recalibration between the two nations, following a period of strained relations.
     
    Other invitees to the G7 meeting are Presidents Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil, and Lee Jae-Myung of South Korea, and Prime Ministers Anthony Albanese of Australia and Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa.
     
    The G7 Summit is an annual gathering of leaders from the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Japan, Italy, Canada, and the European Union. This year’s edition marks PM Modi’s sixth straight attendance at the Summit.
     
    (ANI)
  • MIL-Evening Report: Cape York deserves World Heritage status – and Queensland may need it to become a global leader in tourism

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Westaway, Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Archaeology, School of Social Science, The University of Queensland

    Last week, the Queensland government launched the ambitious Destination 2045 tourism plan, which aims to make the state a global leader in tourism. The plan highlights that one in six jobs in tropical north Queensland are supported by tourism.

    However, earlier this year the same government tentatively withdrew support from a campaign to add Cape York to the UNESCO World Heritage List.

    If the goal is to position Queensland as a leader in tourism, then linking Cape York’s landscapes to the World Heritage brand would certainly help achieve that.

    Consultation is key

    In June 2024, Steven Miles, Labor’s then-premier in Queensland, and Tanya Plibersek, the federal environment minister, announced they had placed seven of the cape’s national parks on Australia’s tentative World Heritage list.

    In January, however, the newly elected Liberal-National government, under Premier David Crisafulli, ordered a review of the decision. The government cited concerns over a lack of sufficient consultation around the nomination.

    If a lack of consultation is the main issue, there is an opportunity for the Crissafulli government to thoughtfully reopen negotiations.

    Getting this step right could help conserve and encourage tourism to one of Australia’s most diverse landscapes – in line with the Destination 2045 plan.

    How to get onto (and kicked off) UNESCO’s list

    Cape York covers some 137,000 square kilometres. According to the 2021 census, it has a population of less than 8,000 people, including 3,678 Aboriginals and Torres Strait Islanders.

    Fruit Bat Falls is a waterfall located in the Apudthama National Park (Jardine River National Park) in Cape York.
    Jason Clark/Flickr, CC BY-NC

    Inscription to the World Heritage list doesn’t mean the entire cape would be listed – just specific sites and landscapes within it.

    It’s usually the responsibility of a country’s various governments to convince UNESCO, in a nomination bid, a certain place has the necessary “outstanding universal value” and meets at least one of UNESCO’s ten selection criteria.

    Sites that are physically altered or damaged after receiving World Heritage status can be de-listed, either by a state party or by UNESCO. This has happened in Oman, Germany, the United Kingdom and Georgia.

    We also recently saw the Murujuga Cultural Landscape in Western Australia, with its extraordinary record of rock engravings (petroglyphs), denied World Heritage inscription. This was mainly due to the threat of ongoing damage from industrial emissions from Woodside Energy’s nearby Karratha gas plant.

    World Heritage status: a risk or benefit?

    A carefully considered World Heritage inscription doesn’t necessarily block industries and tourism from the listed area.

    Many of the archaeological sites of the Willandra Lakes World Heritage Area in New South Wales are located on sheep stations. These stations, established in the late 19th century, have individual property plans that ensure the sites are conserved while remaining viable for agricultural activity.

    Another example is the tourism seen at the extraordinary eel trap system of Budj Bim in southwest Victoria. Budj Bim is one of Australia’s most recent additions to the World Heritage list. It is also the first site to be inscribed solely for its cultural value.

    The Budj Bim eel traps were engineered some 6,600 years ago, and represent one of the world’s oldest aquaculture systems.

    This cultural landscape is now home to a thriving tourism program that attracts thousands of visitors each year. The World Heritage listing ensures there are enough resources for the Gunditjmara Traditional Owners running the site to improve the health of Country through cultural and environmental management.

    World Heritage often boosts international tourism, funding opportunities and local branding. The Lake District in the UK is a good example of this, although the site has faced some controversy recently.

    While Queensland’s current government has cited concerns over planning restrictions, these types of concerns are typically based on perception rather than proven harm. In Queensland, they were also clearly addressed in government memos and communications.

    Tasmania’s forestry sector resisted World Heritage expansion (there were four expansions between 1989–2013), yet tourism in the region remains economically valuable.

    It’s unlikely the Cape York nominations would threaten the pastoral or mining industries, since most of the nominated sites are already protected as national parks.

    What makes a World Heritage site?

    The list of Cape York sites submitted for World Heritage consideration has some strong contenders. Quinkan Country is undoubtedly the most significant site on the list, distinguished by its diversity and richness of Aboriginal paintings and engravings.

    But the list isn’t exhaustive. There are several other Aboriginal cultural landscapes in Cape York that also deserve to be considered by UNESCO. These include the giant shell mounds around Weipa, Jiigurru (Lizard Island), and the Flinders Island Group with its extraordinary rock art galleries.

    Moving forward

    World heritage listings in Cape York have great potential to allow Aboriginal people to care for the landscapes and create tourism infrastructure that centres Aboriginal perspectives.

    Appointing Aboriginal rangers in the Flinders Island Group could help deliver a unique and sustainable cultural tourism experience, similar to that provided at the World Heritage-listed Kakadu National Park. Destination 2045 highlights the importance of developing Aboriginal ranger programs in such landscapes to boost cultural tourism and economic growth.

    Inggal Odul (Denham Island part of Flinders Island Group). Source: Olivia Arnold (2023).

    The Crisafulli government now has the opportunity to meaningfully engage with the Traditional Custodians of the Cape York landscapes that have been put forth. We argue that the World Heritage listing outcome could help the cape’s economic development and support its communities.

    Michael Westaway receives funding from then Australian Research Council and has undertaken research with Aboriginal communities in the Kaurarag Archipelago, around Mapoon and Weipa including on the Steve Irwin Wildlife Reserve and in the Flinders Island Group adjacent to Princess Charlotte Bay.

    Anna M. Kotarba-Morley receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC). Ania previously sat on the International Council of Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS) World Heritage Nomination Bids review panel. Ania undertakes research with Aboriginal communities including within the Kaurareg Archipelago.

    Denis Rose is on the board of the not-for-profit Country Needs People, which advocates for Indigenous Protected Areas and the Indigenous Rangers Program.

    Olivia Arnold has undertaken research with Aboriginal communities in the Flinders Island Group adjacent to Princess Charlotte Bay, Kaurarag Archipelago and Jiigurru (Lizard Island group).

    Rylee Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Cape York deserves World Heritage status – and Queensland may need it to become a global leader in tourism – https://theconversation.com/cape-york-deserves-world-heritage-status-and-queensland-may-need-it-to-become-a-global-leader-in-tourism-248660

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cape York deserves World Heritage status – and Queensland may need it to become a global leader in tourism

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Westaway, Australian Research Council Future Fellow, Archaeology, School of Social Science, The University of Queensland

    Last week, the Queensland government launched the ambitious Destination 2045 tourism plan, which aims to make the state a global leader in tourism. The plan highlights that one in six jobs in tropical north Queensland are supported by tourism.

    However, earlier this year the same government tentatively withdrew support from a campaign to add Cape York to the UNESCO World Heritage List.

    If the goal is to position Queensland as a leader in tourism, then linking Cape York’s landscapes to the World Heritage brand would certainly help achieve that.

    Consultation is key

    In June 2024, Steven Miles, Labor’s then-premier in Queensland, and Tanya Plibersek, the federal environment minister, announced they had placed seven of the cape’s national parks on Australia’s tentative World Heritage list.

    In January, however, the newly elected Liberal-National government, under Premier David Crisafulli, ordered a review of the decision. The government cited concerns over a lack of sufficient consultation around the nomination.

    If a lack of consultation is the main issue, there is an opportunity for the Crissafulli government to thoughtfully reopen negotiations.

    Getting this step right could help conserve and encourage tourism to one of Australia’s most diverse landscapes – in line with the Destination 2045 plan.

    How to get onto (and kicked off) UNESCO’s list

    Cape York covers some 137,000 square kilometres. According to the 2021 census, it has a population of less than 8,000 people, including 3,678 Aboriginals and Torres Strait Islanders.

    Fruit Bat Falls is a waterfall located in the Apudthama National Park (Jardine River National Park) in Cape York.
    Jason Clark/Flickr, CC BY-NC

    Inscription to the World Heritage list doesn’t mean the entire cape would be listed – just specific sites and landscapes within it.

    It’s usually the responsibility of a country’s various governments to convince UNESCO, in a nomination bid, a certain place has the necessary “outstanding universal value” and meets at least one of UNESCO’s ten selection criteria.

    Sites that are physically altered or damaged after receiving World Heritage status can be de-listed, either by a state party or by UNESCO. This has happened in Oman, Germany, the United Kingdom and Georgia.

    We also recently saw the Murujuga Cultural Landscape in Western Australia, with its extraordinary record of rock engravings (petroglyphs), denied World Heritage inscription. This was mainly due to the threat of ongoing damage from industrial emissions from Woodside Energy’s nearby Karratha gas plant.

    World Heritage status: a risk or benefit?

    A carefully considered World Heritage inscription doesn’t necessarily block industries and tourism from the listed area.

    Many of the archaeological sites of the Willandra Lakes World Heritage Area in New South Wales are located on sheep stations. These stations, established in the late 19th century, have individual property plans that ensure the sites are conserved while remaining viable for agricultural activity.

    Another example is the tourism seen at the extraordinary eel trap system of Budj Bim in southwest Victoria. Budj Bim is one of Australia’s most recent additions to the World Heritage list. It is also the first site to be inscribed solely for its cultural value.

    The Budj Bim eel traps were engineered some 6,600 years ago, and represent one of the world’s oldest aquaculture systems.

    This cultural landscape is now home to a thriving tourism program that attracts thousands of visitors each year. The World Heritage listing ensures there are enough resources for the Gunditjmara Traditional Owners running the site to improve the health of Country through cultural and environmental management.

    World Heritage often boosts international tourism, funding opportunities and local branding. The Lake District in the UK is a good example of this, although the site has faced some controversy recently.

    While Queensland’s current government has cited concerns over planning restrictions, these types of concerns are typically based on perception rather than proven harm. In Queensland, they were also clearly addressed in government memos and communications.

    Tasmania’s forestry sector resisted World Heritage expansion (there were four expansions between 1989–2013), yet tourism in the region remains economically valuable.

    It’s unlikely the Cape York nominations would threaten the pastoral or mining industries, since most of the nominated sites are already protected as national parks.

    What makes a World Heritage site?

    The list of Cape York sites submitted for World Heritage consideration has some strong contenders. Quinkan Country is undoubtedly the most significant site on the list, distinguished by its diversity and richness of Aboriginal paintings and engravings.

    But the list isn’t exhaustive. There are several other Aboriginal cultural landscapes in Cape York that also deserve to be considered by UNESCO. These include the giant shell mounds around Weipa, Jiigurru (Lizard Island), and the Flinders Island Group with its extraordinary rock art galleries.

    Moving forward

    World heritage listings in Cape York have great potential to allow Aboriginal people to care for the landscapes and create tourism infrastructure that centres Aboriginal perspectives.

    Appointing Aboriginal rangers in the Flinders Island Group could help deliver a unique and sustainable cultural tourism experience, similar to that provided at the World Heritage-listed Kakadu National Park. Destination 2045 highlights the importance of developing Aboriginal ranger programs in such landscapes to boost cultural tourism and economic growth.

    Inggal Odul (Denham Island part of Flinders Island Group). Source: Olivia Arnold (2023).

    The Crisafulli government now has the opportunity to meaningfully engage with the Traditional Custodians of the Cape York landscapes that have been put forth. We argue that the World Heritage listing outcome could help the cape’s economic development and support its communities.

    Michael Westaway receives funding from then Australian Research Council and has undertaken research with Aboriginal communities in the Kaurarag Archipelago, around Mapoon and Weipa including on the Steve Irwin Wildlife Reserve and in the Flinders Island Group adjacent to Princess Charlotte Bay.

    Anna M. Kotarba-Morley receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC). Ania previously sat on the International Council of Monuments and Sites (ICOMOS) World Heritage Nomination Bids review panel. Ania undertakes research with Aboriginal communities including within the Kaurareg Archipelago.

    Denis Rose is on the board of the not-for-profit Country Needs People, which advocates for Indigenous Protected Areas and the Indigenous Rangers Program.

    Olivia Arnold has undertaken research with Aboriginal communities in the Flinders Island Group adjacent to Princess Charlotte Bay, Kaurarag Archipelago and Jiigurru (Lizard Island group).

    Rylee Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Cape York deserves World Heritage status – and Queensland may need it to become a global leader in tourism – https://theconversation.com/cape-york-deserves-world-heritage-status-and-queensland-may-need-it-to-become-a-global-leader-in-tourism-248660

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • Trump urges Tehran evacuation as Iran-Israel conflict enters fifth day

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    Israel and Iran attacked each other for a fifth straight day on Tuesday, and U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iranians to evacuate Tehran, citing what he said was the country’s rejection of a deal to curb nuclear weapons development.

    Trump was due to leave the Group of Seven summit in Canada later on Monday, a day early, due to the Middle East situation, the White House said. Fox News reported he would convene his National Security Council.

    “Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign. What a shame, and waste of human life. Simply stated, IRAN CAN NOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON. I said it over and over again! Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!” Trump wrote on his Truth Social media platform.

    French President Emmanuel Macron said Trump’s early departure from the G7 was positive, given the immediate objective was to get Israel and Iran to agree to a ceasefire that the U.S. had proposed.

    “There is an offer that has been made, especially to have a ceasefire and to initiate broader discussions. And I think this is a very good thing,” Macron told reporters. “So now we need to see what the stakeholders will do.”

    Iranian media reported explosions and heavy air defence fire in Tehran early on Tuesday. Air defences were activated also in Natanz, home to key nuclear installations 320 km (200 miles) away, the Asriran news website reported.

    A White House aide said it was not true that the U.S. was attacking Iran. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Fox News that Trump was still aiming for a nuclear deal with Iran, while adding the U.S. would defend its assets in the region.

    In Israel, air raid sirens wailed in Tel Aviv after midnight and an explosion was heard as Iranian missiles targeted the country again.

    Iranian officials reported 224 deaths, mostly civilians, in five days, while Israel said 24 civilians had been killed. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said nearly 3,000 Israelis had been evacuated due to damage from Iranian strikes.

    Sources told Reuters that Tehran had asked Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia to urge Trump to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to an immediate ceasefire. In return, Iran would show flexibility in nuclear negotiations, according to two Iranian and three regional sources.

    “If President Trump is genuine about diplomacy and interested in stopping this war, next steps are consequential,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on X. “Israel must halt its aggression, and absent a total cessation of military aggression against us, our responses will continue.”

    Netanyahu told reporters on Monday that Israel was committed to eliminating threats posed by Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs, adding, “If this can be achieved in another way—fine. But we gave it a 60-day chance.”

    Speaking to Reuters on Friday, the first day of Israel’s assault, Trump said he had given the Iranians 60 days to come to an agreement to halt uranium enrichment and that the time had expired with no deal. Iran says its nuclear programme is only for peaceful purposes.

    Oil prices rallied more than 2% early in Asia on Tuesday after Trump’s evacuation warning, reversing losses on Monday amid reports that Iran was seeking an end to hostilities.

    CHINESE URGED TO LEAVE ISRAEL

    With security concerns growing and Israeli airspace closed because of the war, the Chinese embassy in Israel urged its citizens to leave the country via land border crossings as soon as possible.

    The Iran-Israel air war – the biggest battle ever between the two longtime enemies – escalated on Monday with Israel targeting Iran’s state broadcaster and uranium enrichment facilities.

    Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the BBC that the Natanz plant sustained extensive damage, likely destroying 15,000 centrifuges, while Iran’s Fordow plant remained largely intact.

    Talks between the United States and Iran, hosted by Oman, had been scheduled for June 15 but were scrapped, with Tehran saying it could not negotiate while under attack.

    Israel launched its air war with a surprise attack that has killed nearly the entire top echelon of Iran’s military commanders and its leading nuclear scientists. It says it now has control of Iranian airspace and intends to escalate the campaign in the coming days.

    Trump has consistently said the Israeli assault could end quickly if Iran agreed to U.S. demands that it accept strict curbs on its nuclear programme.

    “As I’ve been saying, I think a deal will be signed, or something will happen, but a deal will be signed, and I think Iran is foolish not to sign,” Trump told reporters on the sidelines of the Group of Seven summit in Canada on Monday.

    A U.S. official said Trump would not sign a draft statement from G7 leaders calling for a de-escalation of the conflict. The draft statement says Iran must never have a nuclear weapon and that Israel has the right to defend itself.

    (Reuters)

  • India, Cyprus unveil strategic roadmap, strongly condemn Pahalgam terror attack

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s official visit to Cyprus concluded with the adoption of a Joint Declaration outlining a roadmap for deepened strategic cooperation between the two nations, according to a press release issued by the Prime Minister’s Office.

    The Ministry of External Affairs and the Government of Cyprus also released coordinated statements underscoring the breadth of this renewed partnership. As per the PMO release, Cyprus expressed solidarity and unwavering support to India in its fight against cross-border terrorism and strongly condemned the recent terrorist attacks in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir.

    Both leaders “strongly condemned the gruesome killing of civilians in the recent heinous terrorist attacks in Pahalgam,” reiterating their zero-tolerance approach to terrorism. The press release also highlighted the shared commitment of both sides to strengthening EU-India relations.

    With Cyprus assuming the Presidency of the Council of the European Union in early 2026, both sides pledged to work towards the timely conclusion of the EU-India Free Trade Agreement by the end of 2025, calling it a move of “significant economic and strategic potential.”

    According to the release, Prime Minister Modi’s visit — the first by an Indian Prime Minister to Cyprus in over two decades — was described as a “historic milestone” that “reaffirms the deep and enduring friendship between the two nations.”The visit was seen as a celebration of a shared past and a “forward-looking partnership” rooted in strategic vision and mutual trust.

    The declaration noted that both leaders held wide-ranging discussions on bilateral, regional, and global issues, acknowledging growing cooperation in economic, technological, and people-to-people domains. Cyprus and India committed to furthering collaboration “as trusted and indispensable partners contributing to regional and global peace, prosperity, and stability.”

    The joint declaration reaffirmed both sides’ shared values–democracy, multilateralism, rule of law, and sustainable development–and their support for a rules-based international order grounded in the UN Charter and international law.

    Both leaders emphasized the importance of UNCLOS in securing freedom of navigation and maritime sovereignty. Cyprus reiterated support for India’s permanent membership in a reformed United Nations Security Council.

    Both countries agreed to coordinate closely within the UN, Commonwealth, and other international organizations, including supporting each other’s multilateral candidacies. The release also detailed the two sides’ agreement to hold regular political dialogue, led by their respective foreign ministries, and to implement a bilateral Action Plan to guide cooperation across key sectors.

    On defence and security, both nations reaffirmed their zero-tolerance approach to terrorism, condemned terrorism in all its forms, and emphasized dismantling terrorist infrastructure and financing. Cyprus expressed solidarity with India’s fight against cross-border terrorism, and the two sides emphasized accountability for perpetrators.

    Recognizing the changing global security environment, the leaders stressed the importance of enhancing strategic autonomy, cyber defence, and maritime cooperation. They agreed to explore greater naval collaboration, port calls, and joint maritime training.

    The declaration further underlined the importance of institutional cooperation in emergency preparedness and crisis response, including evacuation and Search and Rescue (SAR) efforts. On connectivity, Cyprus and India reiterated the significance of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) as a multi-nodal initiative to promote economic integration and regional stability.

    Cyprus was described as a gateway into Europe and welcomed as a hub for Indian maritime and logistics enterprises. In the areas of trade, innovation, and technology, both leaders supported expanding bilateral trade and investment.

    They called for a Cyprus-India Business Forum and supported enhanced collaboration in innovation, artificial intelligence, and digital infrastructure. The release also mentioned plans to finalize a related MoU to promote research and tech partnerships. Acknowledging people-to-people ties as a strategic pillar, the declaration confirmed efforts to finalize a Mobility Pilot Program Arrangement by the end of 2025. Both sides also agreed to improve tourism and explore direct air connectivity.

    An agreement to prepare a comprehensive 2025-2029 Action Plan to steer bilateral relations was included in the joint declaration, under the supervision of the foreign ministries of both countries. (ANI)

  • MIL-OSI Canada: G7 Leaders’ statement on recent developments between Israel and Iran

    Source: Government of Canada – Prime Minister

    We, the leaders of the G7, reiterate our commitment to peace and stability in the Middle East.

    In this context, we affirm that Israel has a right to defend itself. We reiterate our support for the security of Israel.

    We also affirm the importance of the protection of civilians.

    Iran is the principal source of regional instability and terror.

    We have been consistently clear that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.

    We urge that the resolution of the Iranian crisis leads to a broader de-escalation of hostilities in the Middle East, including a ceasefire in Gaza.

    We will remain vigilant to the implications for international energy markets and stand ready to coordinate, including with like-minded partners, to safeguard market stability.

    MIL OSI Canada News

  • MIL-OSI: LeddarTech Announces Intention to File under the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act in Canada

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    QUEBEC CITY, Canada, June 16, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — LeddarTech® Holdings Inc. (“LeddarTech” or the “Company”) (Nasdaq: LDTC), an AI-powered software company recognized for its innovation in advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous driving (AD), today announces that, further to its press release dated June 11, 2025, it intends on making an assignment into bankruptcy pursuant to the Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act (Canada) (the “BIA”).

    After careful consideration of all available alternatives, including undertaking a strategic review which was unsuccessful in identifying a suitable acquirer or commercial partner or raising sufficient capital, as well as further to the Company having received a notice of default under its bridge financing offer entered into with certain bridge lenders, the board of directors of the Company has determined that it was in the best interest of the Company and its stakeholders to make an assignment into bankruptcy under the BIA as soon as reasonably practicable. The Company expects that Raymond Chabot Inc., a licensed insolvency trustee, will be appointed as the trustee under the BIA proceedings.

    In connection with the BIA proceedings, each member of the board of directors of the Company will resign effective upon the assignment under the BIA.

    As was disclosed in its June 11, 2025 press release, the Company does not expect to resume active operations and cautions investors that there is significant risk that holders of our securities will receive little to no value under the BIA proceedings.

    Further announcements regarding the status of the Company’s BIA proceedings will be made as developments warrant. Additional information with respect to the BIA proceedings will be available in due course on Raymond Chabot Inc.’s website.

    The Company expects that its common shares and warrants trading on the Nasdaq will be halted as a result of the BIA proceedings. The Company anticipates that it will ultimately be delisted from the Nasdaq.

    About LeddarTech

    A global software company founded in 2007 and headquartered in Quebec City with additional R&D centers in Montreal and Tel Aviv, Israel, LeddarTech develops and provides comprehensive AI-based low-level sensor fusion and perception software solutions that enable the deployment of ADAS, autonomous driving (AD) and parking applications. LeddarTech’s automotive-grade software applies advanced AI and computer vision algorithms to generate accurate 3D models of the environment to achieve better decision making and safer navigation. This high-performance, scalable, cost-effective technology is available to OEMs and Tier 1-2 suppliers to efficiently implement automotive and off- road vehicle ADAS solutions.

    LeddarTech is responsible for several remote-sensing innovations, with over 190 patent applications (112 granted) that enhance ADAS, AD and parking capabilities. Better awareness around the vehicle is critical in making global mobility safer, more efficient, sustainable and affordable: this is what drives LeddarTech to seek to become the most widely adopted sensor fusion and perception software solution.

    Additional information about LeddarTech is accessible at www.leddartech.com and on LinkedIn, Twitter (X), Facebook and YouTube.

    Forward-Looking Statements

    Certain statements contained in this Press Release may be considered forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (which forward-looking statements also include forward-looking statements and forward-looking information within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities laws). Forward-looking statements generally include statements that are predictive in nature and depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, and include words such as “may,” “will,” “should,” “would,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “likely,” “believe,” “estimate,” “project,” “intend” and other similar expressions among others. Forward-looking statements in this press release include, without limitation, statements regarding the issuance of cease trade orders, the BIA proceedings, and the potential for shareholder value recovery. Statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are based on current beliefs and assumptions that are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the risk factors as detailed from time to time in LeddarTech’s reports filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”), including the risk factors contained in LeddarTech’s Form 20-F filed with the SEC. The foregoing list of important factors is not exhaustive. Except as required by applicable law, LeddarTech does not undertake any obligation to revise or update any forward-looking statement, or to make any other forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

    Contact:
    Chris Stewart, Chief Financial Officer, LeddarTech Holdings Inc.
    Tel.: + 1-514-427-0858, chris.stewart@leddartech.com

    Leddar, LeddarTech, LeddarVision, LeddarSP, VAYADrive, VayaVision and related logos are trademarks or registered trademarks of LeddarTech Holdings Inc. and its subsidiaries. All other brands, product names and marks are or may be trademarks or registered trademarks used to identify products or services of their respective owners.

    LeddarTech Holdings Inc. is a public company listed on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol “LDTC.”

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-Evening Report: ER Report: A Roundup of Significant Articles on EveningReport.nz for June 17, 2025

    ER Report: Here is a summary of significant articles published on EveningReport.nz on June 17, 2025.

    In view of Trump’s review of AUKUS, should Australia cancel the subs deal? We asked 5 experts
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By David Andrews, Senior Manager, Policy & Engagement, Australian National University Speculation is swirling around the future of the A$368 billion AUKUS agreement, following Washington’s decision to review the nuclear submarine deal to ensure it meets President Donald Trump’s “America first” agenda. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was planning

    Australians in the bush want tougher penalties on crime. Here’s why – and what’s needed now
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitlin Davey, Lecturer of Criminology, Griffith University New research has found that while Australians generally support strong punishments, people living in the bush are significantly more likely than city dwellers to want to punish more harshly those who break the law. It means Australians living in rural

    Judy Davis gives a singularly vivid performance in The Spare Room – but the play falls short
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Moya Costello, Adjunct Lecturer in Creative Writing, Southern Cross University Brett Boardman/Belvoir In The Spare Room, Judy Davis lights up the stage with a singularly vivid performance. Adapted by Eamon Flack from Helen Garner’s 2008 novel of the same name, Davis plays sharp-tongued Helen (or Hel) to

    US travel ban on Pacific 3 – countries have right to decide over borders, Peters says
    RNZ Pacific New Zealand’s Foreign Minister Winston Peters says countries have the right to choose who enters their borders in response to reports that the Trump administration is planning to impose travel restrictions on three dozen nations, including three in the Pacific. But opposition Labour’s deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni says the foreign minister should push

    Attack on Iran’s state media – Israel bombs IRIB building in new war crime
    Pacific Media Watch Israel targeted one of the buildings of the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) in Tehran on the fourth day of attacks on Iran, interrupting a live news broadcast, reports Press TV. The attack, involving at least four bombs, struck the central building housing IRIB’s news department, while a live news

    What is ‘cognitive shuffling’ and does it really help you get to sleep? Two sleep scientists explain
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Melinda Jackson, Associate Professor at Turner Institute for Brain and Mental Health, School of Psychological Sciences, Monash University Ursula Ferrara/Shutterstock If you’ve been on social media lately – perhaps scrolling in the middle of the night, when you know you shouldn’t but you just can’t sleep –

    New research shows Australians see influencers as major sources of misinformation
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sora Park, Professor of Communication, News & Media Research Centre, University of Canberra As consumption of traditional news continues to fall, audiences are turning to social media personalities and influencers for their information. These figures are increasingly shaping public debates. But Australian news audiences are sceptical. More

    Why does my phone sometimes not ring when people call? A communications expert explains
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jairo Gutierrez, Professor, Department of Computer and Information Sciences, Auckland University of Technology Tada Images There’s a certain feeling I get in the pit of my stomach when I’m waiting for an important call to come through. You know the type – maybe a call from your

    Wetland restoration is seen as sunk cost – but new research shows why it should be considered an investment
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wei Yang, Senior Scientist in Environmental Economics, Te Kunenga ki Pūrehuroa – Massey University Shutterstock/Wirestock Creators As extreme weather intensifies globally, governments are seeking nature-based solutions that deliver both climate and economic benefits. The restoration of wetlands is an often overlooked opportunity. As our recent study shows,

    Jaws at 50: a cinematic masterpiece – and an incredible piece of propaganda
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Colin Alexander, Senior Lecturer in Political Communications, Nottingham Trent University Jaws turns 50 on June 20. Last year, Quentin Tarantino called Stephen Spielberg’s film “possibly the greatest movie ever made”. Though he was quick to add that it isn’t the best film in terms of script, cinematography

    Ancient termite poo reveals 120 million-year-old secrets of Australia’s polar forests
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alistair Evans, Professor, School of Biological Sciences, Monash University Witsawat.S/Shutterstock Imagine a lush forest with tree-ferns, their trunks capped by ribbon-like fronds. Conifers tower overhead, bearing triangular leaves almost sharp enough to pierce skin. Flowering plants are both small and rare. You’re standing in what is now

    When new dads struggle, their kids’ health can suffer. Tackling mental distress early can help
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Delyse Hutchinson, Associate Professor, Clinical Psychologist, and NHMRC Leadership Fellow, SEED Centre for Lifespan Research, School of Psychology, Deakin University D-BASE/Getty In Australia, an estimated one in ten men experience mental health issues such as anxiety and depression before and after their child is born (the perinatal

    A weird group of boronias puzzled botanists for decades. Now we’ve solved the pollination mystery
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Douglas Hilton, Chief Executive, CSIRO Andy Young Boronias, known for their showy flowers and strong scent, are a quintessential part of the Australian bush. They led Traditional Owners to the best water sources and inspired Australian children’s author and illustrator May Gibbs to pen one of her

    Some students learning English can take at least 6 years to catch up to their peers. How can we support them better?
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Lucy Lu, Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Education and Social Work, University of Sydney Rawpixel/ Getty Images About one quarter of Australian school students are learning English as an additional language or dialect. This means their first language or dialect is something other than English and they

    Ice Age shelter high up in the Blue Mountains reveals Aboriginal heritage from 20,000 years ago
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erin Wilkins, Aboriginal Cultural Educator, Trainer and Facilitator, Indigenous Knowledge Artist’s impression of Dargan Shelter as it would have looked during the last Ice Age. Painting by Leanne Watson Redpath Travel back 20,000 years into the last Ice Age, to a time when the upper reaches of

    ‘Be brave’ warning to nations against deepsea mining from UNOC
    By Laura Bergamo in Nice, France The UN Ocean Conference (UNOC) concluded today with significant progress made towards the ratification of the High Seas Treaty and a strong statement on a new plastics treaty signed by 95 governments. Once ratified, it will be the only legal tool that can create protected areas in international waters,

    Samoan fashion designer fatally shot at Salt Lake City ‘no kings’ protest
    RNZ Pacific A renowned Samoan fashion designer was fatally shot at the “No Kings” protest in Salt Lake City on Saturday, the Salt Lake City Police Department (SLCPD) has confirmed. Arthur Folasa Ah Loo, known as Afa Ah Loo, an “innocent bystander” at the protest, died despite efforts by paramedics to save his life, police

    Israelis ‘now realise’ what Palestinians and Lebanese have been suffering, says analyst
    Asia Pacific Report A Paris-based military and political analyst, Elijah Magnier, says he believes the hostilities between Israel and Iran will only get worse, but that Israeli support for the war may wane if the destruction continues. “I think it’s going to continue escalating because we are just in the first days of the war

    What is uranium enrichment and how is it used for nuclear bombs? A scientist explains
    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kaitlin Cook, DECRA Fellow, Department of Nuclear Physics and Accelerator Applications, Australian National University Uranium ore. RHJPhtotos/Shutterstock Late last week, Israel targeted three of Iran’s key nuclear facilities – Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow, killing several Iranian nuclear scientists. The facilities are heavily fortified and largely underground, and

    Issa Amro: Youth Against Settlements – ‘life is very hard, the Israeli soldiers act like militia’
    RNZ News Palestinian advocate Issa Amro has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize this year for his decades of work advocating for peaceful resistance against Israel’s illegal settlements in the occupied West Bank. The settlements are illegal under international law — and a record 45 were established last year under cover of the war

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI China: Iran launches fresh missile attack on Israel

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Iran launched a fresh missile attack on Israel on Monday night, causing no casualties, Israeli officials said.

    The attack triggered air raid sirens in dozens of cities and communities in central and southern Israel, including Tel Aviv, according to the Israeli military.

    A security official told Xinhua that the attack included about two missiles, which were apparently intercepted or landed in open areas.

    Israel’s national rescue service Magen David Adom said there were no immediate reports of injuries or direct hits.

    The attack, announced by Iran’s state media earlier as a new wave of strikes targeting Tel Aviv and Haifa, marked the latest exchange in the ongoing aerial conflict between Israel and Iran, now in its fourth day. The escalation began with Israeli airstrikes on Iran on June 13.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: Gaza internet outage ends, killings of food-seeking civilians continue

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Palestinians are seen in the Sudaniya area, northern Gaza City, on June 12, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    The internet outage which paralyzed humanitarian aid in Gaza has ended, but the famine threat and the killings of food-seeking Palestinians continue as fuel dips critically low, UN humanitarian said on Monday.

    The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said telecommunications cables in Gaza were repaired over the weekend, allowing internet services to resume after days of complete outage.

    The office said that the cut-off halted most aid operation communications and the ability of many Gazans to receive safety warnings and evacuation orders from the Israeli authorities.

    OCHA said communications were restored after the Israeli authorities allowed access for telecommunications company teams to repair damaged cables, following repeated denials.

    Partners reported on Monday that there was another outage in central and southern Gaza, but urgent repairs were coordinated between the repair teams and the authorities to restore connectivity.

    The humanitarian office said that attacks on civilians continued, including the reported killing and injury of people seeking food or other aid from the militarized distribution centers run by Israel-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation. Partners working on child protection say several children were temporarily separated from their families due to mass movements around the hubs. The partners are working to reduce risks for children near the depots.

    OCHA said life-saving aid must reach people in need in line with humanitarian principles, and humanitarians must be allowed to do their work. More essential supplies must be allowed to enter.

    The humanitarians said that Israeli authorities continue to deny many humanitarian movements. Seven out of 17 attempts to coordinate such movements were denied on Monday, including for trucking water and removing solid waste.

    The office said the United Nations and its partners managed on Saturday to collect nearly 100 truckloads from the Kerem Shalom/Karem Abu Salem border crossing, carrying wheat flour and other food supplies. The partners continue to send supplies to the checkpoint where the Israeli authorities are channeling the shipments.

    On Sunday, humanitarians said they were able to transport more than 50 Israeli-approved truckloads to the crossing from Israel. The payloads await clearance into Gaza.

    The office said its humanitarian partners continue to warn of the risk of famine in Gaza amid catastrophic levels of acute food insecurity. The partners provide support with whatever supplies remain available. Last week, a daily average of 200,000 meals were delivered through 44 community kitchens.

    Prices in Gaza continue to skyrocket. OCHA said that last week in Gaza City, a 25kg bag of flour was sold for 1,600 shekels (about 450 U.S. dollars) on the commercial market.

    Fuel stocks are at critically low levels. The office said more fuel is urgently needed for essential services, such as adequate water supplies. In the south of Gaza, diesel supplies are almost running out.

    “Today (Monday), Israeli authorities once again denied an attempt to coordinate the collection of some fuel supplies from Rafah,” OCHA said. “Partners are rationing the stocks they have as they continue attempting to coordinate access.”

    The office said that humanitarian, communications and banking activities may soon halt unless the supply of fuel resumes immediately or the United Nations is enabled by the Israeli authorities to retrieve available stocks from areas inside Gaza that require coordination with authorities for routes and access.

    OCHA said another continuing problem in Gaza, displacement orders, is increasing people’s shelter needs and driving further overcrowding at displacement sites. For more than 100 days, the Israeli authorities have banned the entry of any shelter materials into Gaza. The materials require frequent replenishment, as they wear out quickly or may be left behind when people are forced into another displacement.

    The UN Population Fund said pregnant mothers are living on a fraction of the food they need to survive. A growing number of mothers suffer from malnutrition, and one in three expectant mothers experiences a high-risk pregnancy at a time when half of essential maternal health medicines are no longer in stock.

    The United Nations and its humanitarian partners on Monday launched a “hyper-prioritized global appeal.” It is for 114 million people globally facing life-threatening needs due to funding cuts. OCHA said that of the 4.07 billion U.S. dollars being sought for about 3 million people in the occupied Palestinian territory, only 16 percent of it is funded.

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Meeting with President Trump of the United States

    Source: Government of Italy (English)

    17 Giugno 2025

    The President of the Council of Ministers, Giorgia Meloni, had a bilateral meeting with the President of the United States, Donald Trump, today, in the margins of the G7 Summit in Kananaskis and on the eve of the session dedicated to foreign policy issues.

    The meeting provided an opportunity to discuss the most recent developments in Iran, reaffirming that it would be opportune to reopen negotiations. During the conversation, President Meloni also stressed the need at this time to work towards reaching a ceasefire in Gaza.

    Lastly, the conversation also allowed President Meloni to confirm the importance of reaching an agreement in the EU-US trade negotiations and to address the prospects for the upcoming NATO Summit in The Hague.

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-Evening Report: Attack on Iran’s state media – Israel bombs IRIB building in new war crime

    Pacific Media Watch

    Israel targeted one of the buildings of the state-run Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) in Tehran on the fourth day of attacks on Iran, interrupting a live news broadcast, reports Press TV.

    The attack, involving at least four bombs, struck the central building housing IRIB’s news department, while a live news broadcast was underway.

    The transmission was briefly interrupted before Hassan Abedini, IRIB’s news director and deputy for political affairs, appeared on air to condemn the “terrorist crime”.

    At the time of the attack, news anchor Sahar Emami was presenting the news. Despite the building trembling under the first strike, she stood her ground and continued the broadcast.

    “Allah o Akbar” (God is Great), she proclaimed, drawing global attention to the war crime committed by Israel against Iran’s national broadcaster.

    Moments later, another blast filled the studio with smoke and dust, forcing her to evacuate. She returned shortly after to join Abedini and share her harrowing experience.

    “If I die, others will take my place and expose your crimes to the world,” she declared, looking straight into the camera with courage and composure.

    Casualties unconfirmed
    While the number of casualties remains unconfirmed, insiders reported that several journalists inside the building had been injured in the bombing.

    Israel’s war ministry promptly claimed responsibility for the attack.

    Iran’s foreign ministry condemned the aggression on the state broadcaster as a “war crime” and called on the United Nations to take immediate action against the regime.

    . . . But after a brief interruption on screen as debris fell from a bomb strike, Sahar Emami was back courageously presenting the news and denouncing the attack. Image: AJ screenshot APR

    Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei denounced the attack and urged the international community to hold the regime accountable for its assault on the media.

    “The world is watching: targeting Iran’s news agency #IRIB’s office during a live broadcast is a wicked act of war crime,” Baghaei wrote on X.

    The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) also condemned the bombing of the IRIB news building, labeling it an “inhuman, criminal, and a terrorist act.”

    CPJ ‘appalled’ by Israeli attack
    The Committee to Protect Journalists said it was “appalled by Israel’s bombing of Iran’s state TV channel while live on air.”

    “Israel’s killing, with impunity, of almost 200 journalists in Gaza has emboldened it to target media elsewhere in the region,” Sara Qudah, the West Asia representative for CPJ, said in a statement after the attack on an IRIB building.

    The Israeli regime has a documented history of targeting journalists globally. Since October 2023, it has killed more than 250 Palestinian journalists in the besieged Gaza Strip.

    The regime launched its aggression against the Islamic Republic, including Tehran, early on Friday, leading to the assassination of several high-ranking military officials, nuclear scientists, and civilians, including women and children.

    In response, Iran launched a barrage of missiles and drones late Friday night, followed by more retaliatory operations on Saturday and Sunday as part of Operation True Promise III.

    In Israel, 24 people have been killed and hundreds wounded since hostilities began. In Iran, 224 people have been killed.

    Plumes of black smoke billowing after an Israeli attack against Iran’s state broadcaster yesterday. Image: PressTV

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI USA: McConnell Previews SAC-D Hearing on FY 26 Budget Request for the Intelligence Community

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Kentucky Mitch McConnell

    Washington, D.C.U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, issued the following statement in advance of the June 17th closed hearing with Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and Lieutenant General William J. Hartman, Acting Director of the National Security Agency:

    “U.S. national security depends on the professionalism, objectivity, and integrity of a well-resourced intelligence community. As I’ve observed before, fighting conflict is far costlier than deterring it. And the costs of strategic surprise – the failure of intelligence – can be catastrophic. That’s why the defense subcommittee takes very seriously its responsibility to equip the IC for an array of sensitive and evolving missions.

    “In return, we expect the nation’s seniormost intelligence officials to provide candid observations on the challenges facing both the IC and the decisionmakers their work informs. I look forward, in particular, to thorough assessments of U.S. interests in ongoing conflicts:

    “I will expect Director Gabbard, Director Ratcliffe, and General Hartman to address the current state of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the potential consequences of an outcome that strengthens Vladimir Putin, and the potential damage to U.S. alliances and partnerships of withholding further support to Ukraine.

    “Likewise, I will expect them to assess Israel’s ongoing response to Iran’s decades-long war against America, Israel, and our Arab partners, and the stakes of allowing Iran to continue its nuclear enrichment operations and support for terrorist proxies.

    “Even more broadly, I will expect the leaders of the IC to demonstrate their grasp of the undeniable alignment and coordination of America’s adversaries. I expect them to outline how Chinese economic support for Iran and Iranian material support for Russia’s war informs the global assessments they offer to the Commander-in-Chief.

    “Allies and partners from Europe to Japan are looking to the United States to meet this coordinated aggression with a coordinated response. Retreating from this mantle of leadership will not strengthen or advance American interests.”

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: McConnell Previews SAC-D Hearing on FY 26 Budget Request for the Intelligence Community

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator for Kentucky Mitch McConnell

    Washington, D.C.U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY), Chairman of the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense, issued the following statement in advance of the June 17th closed hearing with Tulsi Gabbard, Director of National Intelligence, John Ratcliffe, Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, and Lieutenant General William J. Hartman, Acting Director of the National Security Agency:

    “U.S. national security depends on the professionalism, objectivity, and integrity of a well-resourced intelligence community. As I’ve observed before, fighting conflict is far costlier than deterring it. And the costs of strategic surprise – the failure of intelligence – can be catastrophic. That’s why the defense subcommittee takes very seriously its responsibility to equip the IC for an array of sensitive and evolving missions.

    “In return, we expect the nation’s seniormost intelligence officials to provide candid observations on the challenges facing both the IC and the decisionmakers their work informs. I look forward, in particular, to thorough assessments of U.S. interests in ongoing conflicts:

    “I will expect Director Gabbard, Director Ratcliffe, and General Hartman to address the current state of Russia’s war in Ukraine, the potential consequences of an outcome that strengthens Vladimir Putin, and the potential damage to U.S. alliances and partnerships of withholding further support to Ukraine.

    “Likewise, I will expect them to assess Israel’s ongoing response to Iran’s decades-long war against America, Israel, and our Arab partners, and the stakes of allowing Iran to continue its nuclear enrichment operations and support for terrorist proxies.

    “Even more broadly, I will expect the leaders of the IC to demonstrate their grasp of the undeniable alignment and coordination of America’s adversaries. I expect them to outline how Chinese economic support for Iran and Iranian material support for Russia’s war informs the global assessments they offer to the Commander-in-Chief.

    “Allies and partners from Europe to Japan are looking to the United States to meet this coordinated aggression with a coordinated response. Retreating from this mantle of leadership will not strengthen or advance American interests.”

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI China: US stocks rebound as investors brush off Middle East tensions

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    U.S. stocks ended higher on Monday, recovering from Friday’s sharp losses as investors’ concerns over ongoing hostilities between Israel and Iran eased somehow.

    Escalation of conflicts between Iran and Israel had briefly rattled markets — oil prices surged, the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) spiked, and gold prices rose as investors sought safe havens. However, Monday’s action suggested confidence remained intact. High-yield credit spreads widened by just 2 basis points.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 317.30 points, or 0.75 percent, to 42,515.09. The S&P 500 added 56.14 points, or 0.94 percent, to 6,033.11. The Nasdaq Composite Index increased by 294.39 points, or 1.52 percent, to 19,701.21.

    Seven of the 11 primary S&P 500 sectors ended in green, with communication services and technology leading the gainers by adding 1.53 percent and 1.52 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, utilities and health led the laggards by losing 0.50 percent and 0.40 percent, respectively.

    Market history supports the idea that geopolitical shocks are often short-lived in their market impact. According to Deutsche Bank analysts Parag Thatte and Binky Chadha, the S&P 500 typically drops around 6 percent in the three weeks following a geopolitical event, but usually recovers those losses in the next three weeks.

    Deutsche Bank’s Henry Allen added in a Monday note that geopolitical events tend to have lasting effects on equities only when they disrupt the real economy, either by slowing growth or driving inflation. So far, investors seem to be betting that neither scenario is likely in the near term.

    Despite lingering geopolitical concerns, historically low equity positioning and resilient fundamentals may be keeping a broader sell-off at bay, allowing risk appetite to return for now. “Focus will remain on geopolitical headlines, but as long as the conflict stays limited between Israel and Iran, it’s unlikely to materially impact the markets,” said Tom Essaye at the Sevens Report.

    Tesla rose more than 1 percent on Monday, while Meta Platforms climbed 2.9 percent, helping power the broader market. Palantir, often seen as a beneficiary of rising geopolitical instability due to its defense and AI ties, rose near 3 percent.

    The rising move comes ahead of a key week for monetary policy. Investors digested a weaker-than-expected manufacturing survey released Monday morning by the New York Fed, adding to signs of slowing momentum in the industrial sector. Still, the data did little to shift expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.

    According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, futures markets are pricing in a 100 percent chance that the Fed will hold rates steady, despite renewed pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has called on Fed Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates.

    However, elevated oil prices stemming from the conflict in the Middle East are expected to keep inflation risks on the Fed’s radar and reduce the likelihood of rate cuts in the near term. “Markets got a reminder that tariffs aren’t the only potential source of market volatility,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “Right now, markets are signaling they expect the situation in the Middle East will remain contained, but any surprises could have an oversized impact on sentiment.”

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI China: Sao Paulo parts ways with manager Zubeldia

    Source: People’s Republic of China – State Council News

    Sao Paulo has sacked Argentine manager Luis Zubeldia after a poor start to the Brazilian Serie A season, the club said on Monday.

    Sao Paulo is currently 14th in Brazil’s 20-team top-flight standings with just two wins from 12 games so far. The club has fared better in the Copa Libertadores, finishing top of its group to advance to the last 16, where it will meet Colombia’s Atletico Nacional over two legs in August.

    “By mutual agreement and in an amicable manner, it was decided that Luis Zubeldia will not remain in charge of the team,” Sao Paulo said in a statement on its official website.

    Zubeldia guided Sao Paulo to 38 wins, 27 draws and 20 losses after taking charge in April last year.

    Media reports said former Argentina striker Hernan Crespo was the frontrunner to assume the vacant position. Crespo, who had an eight-month spell in charge of the club in 2021, has been out of work since parting ways with United Arab Emirates outfit Al Ain last November. 

    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI Security: COMLOG WESTPAC Holds Awards Ceremony June 12, 2025 [Image 1 of 6]

    Source: United States Navy (Logistics Group Western Pacific)

    Issued by: on


    SINGAPORE (June 12, 2025) Capt. John-Paul Tamez, left, Deputy Commander, Logistics Group Western Pacific/Task Force 73 (COMLOG WESTPAC/CTF 73), presents the Navy and Marine Corps Achievement Medal to Lt. Michael Sanza, assigned to COMLOG WESTPAC/CTF 73, during an awards ceremony on Sembawang Naval Installation, June 12, 2025. COMLOG WESTPAC supports deployed surface units and aircraft carriers, along with regional Allies and partners, to facilitate patrols in the South China Sea, participation in naval exercises and responses to natural disasters. (U.S. Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Jordan Jennings)

    Date Taken: 06.12.2025
    Date Posted: 06.16.2025 20:31
    Photo ID: 9116938
    VIRIN: 250612-N-YV347-1004
    Resolution: 7840×5227
    Size: 30.62 MB
    Location: SG

    Web Views: 0
    Downloads: 0

    PUBLIC DOMAIN  

    MIL Security OSI