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Category: The Conversation

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: What is personalized pricing, and how do I avoid it?

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Jay L. Zagorsky, Associate Professor Questrom School of Business, Boston University

    Recently, Delta Air Lines announced it would expand its use of artificial intelligence to provide individualized prices to customers. This move sparked concern among flyers and politicians. But Delta isn’t the only business interested in using AI this way. Personalized pricing has already spread across a range of industries, from finance to online gaming.

    Customized pricing – where each customer receives a different price for the same product – is a holy grail for businesses because it boosts profits. With customized pricing, free-spending people pay more while the price-sensitive pay less. Just as clothes can be tailored to each person, custom pricing fits each person’s ability and desire to pay.

    I am a professor who teaches business school students how to set prices. My latest book, “The Power of Cash: Why Using Paper Money is Good for You and Society,” highlights problems with custom pricing. Specifically, I’m worried that AI pricing models lack transparency and could unfairly take advantage of financially unsophisticated people.

    The history of custom pricing

    For much of history, customized pricing was the normal way things happened. In the past, business owners sized up each customer and then bargained face-to-face. The price paid depended on the buyer’s and seller’s bargaining skills – and desperation.

    An old joke illustrates this process. Once, a very rich man was riding in his carriage at breakfast time. Hungry, he told his driver to stop at the next restaurant. He went inside, ordered some eggs and asked for the bill. When the owner handed him the check, the rich man was shocked at the price. “Are eggs rare in this neighborhood?” he asked. “No,” the owner said. “Eggs are plentiful, but very rich men are quite rare.”

    Custom pricing through bargaining still exists in some industries. For example, car dealerships often negotiate a different price for each vehicle they sell. Economists refer to this as “first-degree” or “perfect” price discrimination, which is “perfect” from the seller’s perspective because it allows them to charge each customer the maximum amount they’re willing to pay.

    Wanamaker’s department store in Philadelphia was a pricing pioneer.
    Hulton Archive/Getty Images

    Currently, most American shoppers don’t bargain but instead see set prices. Many scholars trace the rise of set prices to John Wanamaker’s Philadelphia department store, which opened in 1876. In his store, each item had a nonnegotiable price tag. These set prices made it simpler for customers to shop and became very popular.

    Why uniform pricing caught on

    Set prices have several advantages for businesses. For one thing, they allow stores to hire low-paid retail workers instead of employees who are experts in negotiation.

    Historically, they also made it easier for stores to decide how much to charge. Before the advent of AI pricing, many companies determined prices using a “cost-plus” rule. Cost-plus means a business adds a fixed percentage or markup to an item’s cost. The markup is the percentage added to a product’s cost that covers a company’s profits and overhead.

    The big-box retailer Costco still uses this rule. It determines prices by adding a roughly 15% maximum markup to each item on the warehouse floor. If something costs Costco $100, they sell it for about $115.

    The problem with cost-plus is that it treats all items the same. For example, Costco sells wine in many stores. People buying expensive Champagne typically are willing to pay a much higher markup than customers purchasing inexpensive boxed wine. Using AI gets around this problem by letting a computer determine the optimal markup item by item.

    What personalized pricing means for shoppers

    AI needs a lot of data to operate effectively. The shift from cash to electronic payments has enabled businesses to collect what’s been called a “gold mine” of information. For example, Mastercard says its data lets companies “determine optimal pricing strategies.”

    So much information is collected when you pay electronically that in 2024 the Federal Trade Commission issued civil subpoenas to Mastercard, JPMorgan Chase and other financial companies demanding to know “how artificial intelligence and other technological tools may allow companies to vary prices using data they collect about individual consumers’ finances and shopping habits.” Experiments at the FTC show that AI programs can even collude among themselves to raise prices without human intervention.

    To prevent customized pricing, some states have laws requiring retailers to display a single price for each product for sale. Even with these laws, it’s simple to do custom pricing by using targeted digital coupons, which vary each shopper’s discount.

    How you can outsmart AI pricing

    There are ways to get around customized pricing. All depend on denying AI programs data on past purchases and knowledge of who you are. First, when shopping in brick-and-mortar stores, use paper money. Yes, good old-fashioned cash is private and leaves no data trail that follows you online.

    Second, once online, clear your cache. Your search history and cookies provide algorithms with extensive amounts of information. Many articles say the protective power of clearing your cache is an urban myth. However, this information was based on how airlines used to price tickets. Recent analysis by the FTC shows the newest AI algorithms are changing prices based on this cached information.

    Third, many computer pricing algorithms look at your location, since location is a good proxy for income. I was once in Botswana and needed to buy a plane ticket. The price on my computer was about $200. Unfortunately, before booking I was called away to dinner. After dinner my computer showed the cost was $1,000 − five times higher. It turned out after dinner I used my university’s VPN, which told the airline I was located in a rich American neighborhood. Before dinner I was located in a poor African town. Shutting off the VPN reduced the price.

    Last, often to get a better price in face-to-face negotiations, you need to walk away. To do this online, put something in your basket and then wait before hitting purchase. I recently bought eyeglasses online. As a cash payer, I didn’t have my credit card handy. It took five minutes to find it, and the delay caused the site to offer a large discount to complete the purchase.

    The computer revolution has created the ability to create custom products cheaply. The cashless society combined with AI is setting us up for customized prices. In a custom-pricing situation, seeing a high price doesn’t mean something is higher quality. Instead, a high price simply means a business views the customer as willing to part with more money.

    Using cash more often can help defeat custom pricing. In my view, however, rapid advances in AI mean we need to start talking now about how prices are determined, before customized pricing takes over completely.

    Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What is personalized pricing, and how do I avoid it? – https://theconversation.com/what-is-personalized-pricing-and-how-do-i-avoid-it-262195

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  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Strengthening collective labor rights can help reduce economic inequality

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Skip Mark, Assistant professor of political science, University of Rhode Island

    Only about 1 in 10 U.S. workers belong to unions today. champc/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    Despite the strength of the U.S. economy, the gap between rich and poor Americans is increasing.

    The wealthiest 1% of Americans have more than five times as much wealth as the bottom 50%, according to the U.S. Federal Reserve. That’s up from four times as much in the year 2000. In 2024 alone, the wealthiest 19 families got a total of US$1 trillion richer – the largest one-year increase on record.

    And yet 59% of Americans don’t have enough money saved up to cover an unexpected $1,000 expense.

    We are political scientists who study human rights and political economy.

    In a 2023 study, our team looked at 145 countries, including the U.S., to understand the link between labor rights and inequality. We found evidence that strengthening collective labor rights may reduce economic inequality.

    Empowering workers

    Collective labor rights include the rights to form and join a union, bargain collectively for higher pay and better working conditions, go on strike, and get justice if employers punish workers who exercise these rights.

    In the U.S., where less than 10% of workers belong to unions, union members typically earn higher wages than their nonunion counterparts.

    Through negotiations on behalf of their members, unions can pressure employers to provide fair wages and benefits. If negotiations break down, the union can call for a strike – sometimes winning better benefits and higher wages as a result.

    Some U.S. unions don’t have the right to strike, including air traffic controllers, teachers and those working on national security issues. But most unions have some ability to implement work stoppages and impose costs on employers to negotiate for raises and better benefits and conditions.

    Reducing inequality

    For our study, we analyzed the human rights in the CIRIGHTS dataset, which uses human rights reports from the U.S. State Department, Amnesty International and other sources to measure government respect for 24 human rights, including the rights to unionize and bargain collectively. The dataset is produced by the University of Rhode Island, Binghamton University and the University of Connecticut. One of us, Skip Mark, serves as a co-director of the project.

    Using a scoring guide, a team of researchers reads human rights reports and gives each country a score of zero if they have widespread violations, one point if they have some violations, or two if they have no evidence of violations. The team has assigned scores for all 24 rights from 1994 through 2022.

    Using this data, we created a measure of collective labor rights by adding scores for the right to workplace association and the right to collective bargaining. The resulting collective labor rights score ranges from zero to four.

    Countries where workers’ rights are routinely violated, such as Afghanistan, China and Saudi Arabia, scored a zero. The United States, Macedonia and Zambia, three countries with little in common, were among those that tended to get two points, placing them in the middle. Countries with no reported violations of the rights to workplace association and collective bargaining, including Canada, Sweden and France, got four points.

    According to the CIRIGHTS dataset, the strength of respect for collective labor rights around the world declined by 50%, from 2.06 in 1994 to 1.03 in 2022.

    At the same time, according to the World Inequality Dataset, the share of income earned by the 1% with the biggest paychecks increased by 11%.

    We used advanced statistical methods to figure out whether better worker protections actually reduce inequality or are just associated with it.

    Gaps between individuals and ethnic groups

    We also measured what’s been happening to economic inequality, using two common ways to track it.

    One of them is vertical inequality, the gap between what people earn within a country – the rich versus the poor. The more unequal a society becomes, the higher its vertical inequality score gets. We measured it using the disposable income measure from the Gini index, a commonly used indicator of economic inequality that captures how much money individuals have to spend after taxes and government transfers.

    We found that a one-point increase in collective labor rights on our four-point scale reduces vertical inequality by 10 times the average change in inequality. For the U.S., a one-point increase in collective labor rights would be about enough to undo the increase in inequality that occurred between 2008 and 2010 due to the Great Recession and its aftermath. It would also likely help stem the growing wealth gap between Black and white Americans. That’s because income disparities compound over time to create wealth gaps.

    We also assessed the connection between horizontal inequality, which measures income inequality between ethnic or other groups, and collective labor rights.

    Negative horizontal inequality measures the amount of a country’s income held by the poorest ethnic group. Higher scores for this metric indicate that the lowest-earning ethnic group has less income relative to the rest of society. Black Americans have the lowest median income of any racial or ethnic group, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

    Positive horizontal inequality measures the income earned by the richest ethnic group. When positive horizontal inequality rises, that means the richest ethnic group has more income relative to the rest of society. According to the same Census Bureau report, Asian Americans had the highest median earnings.

    We found that stronger collective labor rights, both in law and in practice around the world, also reduce both types of horizontal inequality. This means they raise the floor by helping to improve the income of the poorest ethnic groups in society. They also close the gap by limiting the incomes of the richest ethnic group, which can reduce the likelihood of conflicts.

    That is, our findings suggest that when workers are free to advocate for higher wages and better benefits for themselves, it also benefits society as a whole.

    Stephen Bagwell is a researcher with the Human Rights Measurement Initiative, a charitable trust registered in New Zealand

    Skip Mark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Strengthening collective labor rights can help reduce economic inequality – https://theconversation.com/strengthening-collective-labor-rights-can-help-reduce-economic-inequality-254258

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  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Black teachers are key mentors for Philly high school seniors navigating college decisions

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Joseph Sageman, Postdoctoral Researcher in Sociology, University of Pennsylvania

    In Pennsylvania, nearly 15% of students are Black, but less than 4% of teachers are. JohnnyGreig/E+ Collection via Getty Images

    Zikia, a 12th grader in Philadelphia, was stressing over where she would attend college in the fall. Her charter school’s college decision ceremony was the next day, and she was torn between her two top choices.

    At a crossroads, she reached out to her favorite teacher, the only Black educator on her course schedule. “I texted him at nighttime,” she recalled. “I didn’t feel like I could do that with my other teachers.”

    In my research
    on college and career readiness, I did not initially set out to study the impact of Black teachers, but students like Zikia readily brought up the topic.

    In interviews, students insisted on the importance of having Black educators. They consistently named their Black teachers and counselors as the most influential adults in their planning for life after graduation.

    Black educators, though, are severely underrepresented in the local teaching workforce. At Zikia’s school, over 75% of students are Black compared to only about 15% of teachers.

    The picture is just as striking in Pennsylvania as a whole. Statewide, the share of Black students is four times the share of Black teachers – 14.5% of students are Black, while only 3.7% of teachers are. A majority of public schools in Pennsylvania do not employ a single teacher of color despite serving racially diverse communities.

    These statistics are particularly concerning because strong evidence suggests that minority students benefit greatly from working with same-race teachers.

    Over the past two decades, a wave of studies from economists and education scholars have documented that when Black students are assigned to Black teachers, their math and reading scores improve, their rates of absenteeism and suspensions drop, and over the long run, they are more likely to enroll in honors classes, complete high school and go to college.

    This research is mostly quantitative and does more to establish that Black teachers are effective than explain why they are able to deliver such impressive results.

    To answer this latter question, I went directly to the source.

    I conducted interviews with roughly 100 Philadelphia 12th graders, asking them how they came to trust and depend on Black educators when weighing one of the most consequential decisions of their lives: whether and where to go to college. I spoke with students at five city high schools, including district-run and charter schools, as well as some of the teachers and counselors involved in their college decisions.

    Zikia and the other names used in this story are pseudonyms to protect the confidentiality of research participants.

    Inspiration, empathy and insight

    The presence of Black educators mattered to students for several reasons.

    Some of my respondents felt inspired by seeing Black people in school leadership positions. LaMont, for instance, said that taking classes from Black teachers motivated him: “Just to see success is achievable. A teacher is something in life. And it shows that people that look like me are able to overcome something. Having Black teachers gives you a sense of confidence.”

    LaMont’s seeing his own identity and background reflected in his teachers is what sociologists and political scientists call descriptive representation. His classmates agreed that it was important to have teachers who looked like them. Their connection, they insisted, was more than skin deep. Most of them gravitated to Black teachers because of how those teachers did their jobs and advocated for minority students, a concept called substantive representation.

    For instance, many students felt most comfortable asking for help from Black teachers because they regarded them as more empathetic listeners and felt they were invested in their holistic well-being, not just in their grades or academic performance.

    When I asked Ramir to tell me about the teachers he had strong relationships with, he offered a typical answer: “Most of them are African American,” he said. “But it’s not even just about that. I like a teacher who tries to understand you for who you are. Not look at you as a student but as a human being and build with you.”

    Students also credited Black teachers with making them feel like they belonged at school. They sought out advice from teachers who believed in their potential and held them to high academic and behavioral standards. These qualities were by no means unique to Black teachers, but white teachers sometimes found it difficult to balance authority with warmth in their relationships with students.

    “There are some teachers that act like siblings and some that act like parents,” said Emily, a white social studies teacher. “And it’s very rare that a white teacher can act like a parent and have the kids still like them.”

    Black educators also had culturally relevant insights into college that students valued highly. They often had deeper knowledge of local historically Black colleges and universities, or they could speak to the experience of being a racial minority at a predominantly white institution. Students valued guidance more when it came from a source they felt was relatable.

    These findings suggest that Black educators are effective not only because of shared identity or experiences, but also because of the skills and dispositions they bring into the classroom: proactively building relationships, coupling high expectations with high levels of support, and bringing schoolwork to life. As a result, minority students held out hope not only for more representation in the classroom but also that all their teachers – regardless of race – would integrate these practices into their tool kits.

    Read more of our stories about Philadelphia.

    Joseph Sageman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Black teachers are key mentors for Philly high school seniors navigating college decisions – https://theconversation.com/black-teachers-are-key-mentors-for-philly-high-school-seniors-navigating-college-decisions-261732

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  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Yosemite embodies the long war over US national park privatization

    Source: The Conversation – USA (2) – By Michael Childers, Associate Professor of History, Colorado State University

    The Ahwahnee is a privately run hotel inside Yosemite National Park. George Rose/Getty Images

    The Trump administration’s cuts to the National Park Service’s budget and staffing have raised concerns among park advocates and the public that the administration is aiming to further privatize the national parks.

    The nation has a long history of similar efforts, including a wildly unpopular 1980 attempt by Reagan administration Interior Secretary James Watt to promote development and expand private concessions in the parks. But debate over using public national park land for private profit dates back more than a century before that.

    As I explain in my forthcoming book, no park has played a more central role in that debate than Yosemite, in California.

    Early concerns

    In early 1864, Central American Steamship Transit Company representative Israel Ward Raymond wrote a letter to John Conness, a U.S. senator from California, urging the government to move swiftly to preserve the Yosemite Valley and the Mariposa Grove of giant sequoia trees to prevent them from falling into private hands. Five months later, President Abraham Lincoln signed the Yosemite Grant Act, ceding the valley and the grove to the state of California, “upon the express conditions that the premises shall be held for public use, resort, and recreation.” This was years before Yellowstone became the first federal land designated a national park in 1872.

    For centuries, the natural beauty of the Yosemite Valley has impressed visitors.
    Sepia Times/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    Controversy arose quickly at Yosemite. Two men – James Lamon and James Hutchings – had claimed land in the valley before the federal government gave it to California. Both began commercial operations, Lamon growing cash crops and Hutchings operating a hotel.

    California said their businesses threatened the state’s ability to develop roads and trails in Yosemite by competing for tourist dollars. A legal battle ensued and was not resolved until an 1872 U.S. Supreme Court ruling found that the men’s land claims had not been fully validated according to the procedures of the time. The California legislature paid both men compensation for their land, and both left the park.

    In 1890, neighboring parts of the Yosemite area became America’s third national park – and in 1906, the federal government again took possession of the Yosemite Valley itself and the Mariposa Grove, specifically to incorporate them into an expansion of the national park.

    Development rights

    Yet, as my research has found, the role of private interests in the park remained unsolved. Private companies under contract to the National Park Service have long provided needed amenities such as lodging and food within the national parks. But questions over what is acceptable in national parks in the pursuit of profit have shaped Yosemite’s history for generations.

    In 1925, I found, the question centered on the right to build the first gas station inside the park, in Yosemite Valley. Two private businesses, the Curry Camping Company and the Yosemite National Park Company, had long competed for tourist dollars within the park. Each wanted to build a gas station to boost profits.

    Frustrated over the need to decide, National Park Service Director Horace Albright ordered the rival firms to simplify management of the park’s concessions. The companies merged, and the newly formed Yosemite Park and Curry Company was granted the exclusive rights to run lodges, restaurants and other facilities within the park, including the new gas station.

    But as I found in my research, the park service and the concessions company did not always see eye to eye on the purpose of the park. The conflict between profit and preservation is perhaps most clearly illustrated by the construction of a ski area within the park in the early 1930s. The park service initially opposed the development of Badger Pass Ski Area as not conducive to the national park ideal, but the Yosemite Park and Curry Company insisted it was key to boosting winter use of the park.

    In 1973, the Music Corporation of America, an entertainment conglomerate, bought the Yosemite Park and Curry Company. The company already had a tourist attraction operating near Hollywood, where visitors could pay to tour movie sets, but had not yet changed its name to Universal Studios or launched major theme parks in Florida and California. Its purchase of the park’s concessions set off a firestorm of controversy over fears of turning Yosemite into a theme park.

    That didn’t happen, but annual park visitor numbers climbed from 2.5 million to 3.8 million over the 20 years MCA ran the concessions, which sparked concerns about development and overcrowding in the park. Conservationists argued the park service had allowed the corporate giant to promote and develop the park in ways that threatened the very aspects of the park most people came to enjoy.

    With three restaurants, two service stations with a total of 15 gas pumps, two cafeterias, two grocery stores, seven souvenir shops, a delicatessen, a bank, a skating rink, three swimming pools, a golf course, two tennis courts, kennels, a barbershop, a beauty shop, Badger Pass Ski Area and three lodges, the Yosemite Valley was a busy commercial district. Critics argued that such development contradicted the park service’s mandate to leave national parks unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations.

    Crowds gather at some of Yosemite’s most popular sites, such as the California Tunnel Tree.
    David McNew/AFP via Getty Images

    Who owns the names?

    Falling profits and consolidation within the music industry led MCA to sell its concessions rights in Yosemite in 1993. The Delaware North Companies, a global hospitality corporation, took over and ran the park’s concessions until 2016, when it sold the rights to Aramark.

    But in that sale, the question of public resources and private profits arose again. Delaware North demanded $51 million in compensation for Aramark continuing to use the names of several historic properties within the park, such as the Ahwahnee, a hotel, and Curry Village, another group of visitor accommodations. The company claimed those names were a part of its assets under its contract with the park service.

    The park service rejected the claim, saying the names, which dated back more than a century, belonged to the American people. But to avoid legal problems during the transition, the agency temporarily renamed several sites, including calling the Ahwahnee the Majestic Yosemite Hotel and changing Curry Village to Half Dome Village. Public outrage erupted, denouncing the claim by Delaware North as commercial overreach that threatened to distort Yosemite’s heritage. In 2019, the park service and Aramark agreed to pay Delaware North a total of $12 million to settle the dispute, and the original names were restored.

    Protesters unfurl an upside-down U.S. flag from the top of El Capitan in Yosemite National Park in February 2025, protesting Trump administration changes to the National Park Service.

    Renewed interest in commercial efforts

    In June 2025, Yosemite again took center stage in the dispute over the role of federal funding versus private interests at the start of the second Trump administration when a group of climbers unfurled an American flag upside down off El Capitan in protest of the administration’s cuts in personnel and slashing of the park service’s budget.

    Conservationists, including former National Park Service Director Jonathan Jarvis, argued that by defunding the park service and laying off as much as a quarter of its workforce, the Trump administration was “laying the groundwork to privatize” the national parks by allowing corporate interests more access to public lands. Those concerns echo ones raised during the first Trump administration, when the White House argued privatization would better serve the American public by improving visitor experiences and saving federal dollars.

    Whichever side prevails in the short term, the debate over the role of private interests within national parks like Yosemite will undoubtedly continue.

    Michael Childers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Yosemite embodies the long war over US national park privatization – https://theconversation.com/yosemite-embodies-the-long-war-over-us-national-park-privatization-261133

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  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Pacific tsunami: modern early warning systems prevent the catastrophic death tolls of the past

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ian Main, Professor of Seismology and Rock Physics, University of Edinburgh

    The earthquake in Russia’s Kamchatka peninsula on July 30 2025 may have been one of the most severe on record, with a magnitude of 8.8. But innovations in science and technology gave governments vital time to warn and evacuate their people from the resulting tsunami.

    Millions of people escaped to higher ground before the tsunami hit.

    The 2004 Boxing Day 9.3 magnitude earthquake and tsunami in Sumatra, which caused approximately 230,000 deaths, some as far away as Somalia on the other side of the Indian Ocean, shows how important these warnings are.

    Early warning systems were not in place for the Indian Ocean in time for the 2004 disaster. But there is now a system in place, with 27 countries participating in the group effort.

    The 2004 tsunami was particularly tragic because tsunami waves travel at a steady speed in the open ocean, about as fast as a jet plane. This means they can take several hours to reach shore across an ocean, with plenty of time for warning.

    An early warning system for the Pacific Ocean, based in Hawaii, was created in 1948 following a deadly tsunami two years before. On April 1 1946, the magnitude 8.6 Aleutian Islands earthquake in the northern Pacific Ocean generated a tsunami that devastated parts of Hawaii hours later, leading to 146 fatalities.

    The death toll was exacerbated by the leading wave being downwards. This happens in around 50% of tsunamis, and exposes the seashore in a similar way to when the tide goes out, but exposing a larger area than normal. People sometimes investigate out of curiosity, bringing them closer to the danger.

    The accuracy and response times of early tsunami warnings have significantly improved since 1948.

    How tsunamis happen

    To understand the work involved in protecting coastal communities, first you need to understand how tsunamis are generated.

    Tsunamis are caused by displacement of mass on the sea floor after an earthquake, landslide or volcanic eruption. This provides an energy source to set off a wave in the deep sea, not just near the surface like in the ocean waves we see whipped up by the wind and storms. Most are small. The Japanese word tsunami translates somewhat innocuously as “harbour wave”.

    Detailed global mapping of the sea floor, pioneered by US geologist Marie Tharpe between 1957 and 1978, helped establish the modern theory of plate tectonics. It also improved the physical models for how the tsunami will travel in the ocean.

    Wave height increases as it approaches the shore, and the topography of the sea floor can result in a complicated pattern of wave interference and concentration of the energy in stream-like patterns. The establishment of sea-floor observatories led to better data for the pressure at the sea floor (related to wave height) and satellite networks now directly monitor wave height globally using radar signals from space.

    One of the factors that has helped scientists predict the range of a tsunami includes the setting up of the worldwide standard station network of seismometers in 1963, which allowed better estimations of earthquake location and magnitude.

    These were superseded by the digital broadband global network of seismometers in 1978, which allowed more detail on the source to be calculated quickly. This includes a better estimate of earthquake size, the source rupture area and orientation in three dimensions.

    It also tells scientists about the slip, which controls the pattern of displacement on the sea floor. This data is used to forecast the time of landing, the amplitude of the wave on the shoreline, and its height in areas where the wave travels further inland.

    The Pacific Ocean warning system now has 46 countries contributing data. It also uses physical and statistical models for estimating tsunami height. The models developed as scientists learnt more about earthquake sources, mapped features on the sea floor and tested model forecasts against outcomes.

    Today’s technology

    The early warning systems we have today are due to a decades-long commitment to global research collaboration and open data. Scientists have also improved their forecast methods. Recently they started using trained AI algorithms which could improve the timeliness and accuracy.

    Pioneered by the US Geological Survey, rapid data sharing is now used routinely to estimate earthquake parameters and make them available to the public soon after the rupture stops. This can be within minutes for an initial estimate then updated over the next few hours as more data comes in.

    However, the forecast wave height is inherently uncertain, variable from place to place, and may turn out to be more or less than expected. Similarly, large earthquakes are rare, making it hard to estimate how likely they are on average, and therefore to design appropriate mitigation measures.

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami in Japan destroyed or overtopped the eight-metre high protective sea walls that had been put in place based on such hazard estimates. There were over 19,000 fatalities. As a consequence, their height has been increased to 12-15 metres in some areas.

    Early warning systems also rely on rapid communication to the public, including mass alerts communicated by mobile phone, coordination by the relevant authorities across borders, clear advice, and advance evacuation plans and occasional alarm tests or drills. Although tsunami waves slow down to the speed of a car as they approach the shore, it is impossible to outrun one, so it is better to act quickly and calmly.

    The effectiveness of warnings also means accepting a degree of inconvenience in false alarms where the tsunami height is less than that forecast, because this is inevitable with the uncertainties involved. For good reason, authorities issuing alerts will err on the side of caution.

    To give an example, nuclear power plants on Japan’s eastern seaboard were shut down on July 30.

    So far it looks like the Pacific early warning system – combined with effective levels of preparedness and action by service providers and decision makers – has worked well in reducing the number of casualties that might have happened without it.

    There will always be a level of uncertainty we will have to live with. On balance, it is a small price to pay for avoiding a catastrophe.

    Ian Main is professor of Seismology and Rock Physics at the University of Edinburgh. He receives funding from UK Research and Innovation Research Council, a member of the UK Office for Nuclear Regulation Expert panel on external hazards, and acts as an independent reviewer for the Energy Industry-funded SeIsmic hazard and Ground Motion Assessment research program SIGMA3.

    – ref. Pacific tsunami: modern early warning systems prevent the catastrophic death tolls of the past – https://theconversation.com/pacific-tsunami-modern-early-warning-systems-prevent-the-catastrophic-death-tolls-of-the-past-262283

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  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Vasectomy, pain and regret: what online forum Reddit reveals about men’s experiences

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kevin Pimbblet, Professor and Director of the Centre of Excellence for Data Science, AI and Modelling, University of Hull

    Fabian Montano Hernandez/Shutterstock

    Vasectomy has long been regarded as a permanent, safe and effective form of contraception. Its benefits are often summarised as minimally invasive and largely risk-free.

    But that may not be the full story.

    In recent years, vasectomy rates in the UK have declined significantly. It’s a puzzling trend, given that the procedure’s efficacy hasn’t changed. What has arguably shifted is how men talk about it. Not in doctors’ offices, but online.

    As an AI researcher working with large-scale public data, I led a 2025 study using natural language processing (NLP) – a branch of artificial intelligence that analyses patterns in human language – to examine thousands of posts from r/vasectomy and r/postvasectomypain, which are subreddits (topic-specific discussion forums) on Reddit, a social media platform where users share and comment on content in themed communities.

    My goal wasn’t to weigh in on urology (I’m not that kind of doctor), but to explore the emotional tone and self-reported outcomes in digital spaces where users speak candidly and in real time.

    The findings are revealing and raise important questions about informed consent, online health discourse and the growing influence of social data on healthcare communication.

    Fear, regret and pain?

    The most common emotional response to vasectomy, whether being considered or already undergone, is fear. To assess this, we used a tool called NRClex, a crowd-trained emotion classifier. This is an AI model trained on thousands of labelled examples to detect emotional tone in text. It found that “fear” dominated more than 70% of user-generated content.

    This isn’t surprising. Men on Reddit ask questions like “How bad is the pain?” “How long does it last?” and “Will I regret this?” These are not rare concerns: they’re central to the conversation.

    While overall sentiment analysis shows that most users report positive outcomes, a significant minority express deep regret and ongoing pain – sometimes lasting for years after surgery.

    This pain is often described as post-vasectomy pain syndrome (PVPS), a relatively little-known condition defined by new or chronic scrotal pain that continues for more than three months after the procedure.

    PVPS is poorly understood and may have multiple causes, some anatomical, some neurological and some still unclear. Though some health authorities describe it as “rare,” our Reddit data suggests it could be more common, or at least more disruptive, than currently acknowledged.

    We analysed more than 11,000 Reddit posts and found that the word “pain” appeared in over 3,700 of them; roughly one-third. In many cases, the pain described persisted well beyond the expected recovery period. The word “month” appeared in nearly 900 pain-related posts, while “year” appeared in over 600.

    This is noteworthy. Post-surgical pain is typically expected to resolve within days or weeks. Yet our dataset suggests that 6%–8% of Reddit users discussing vasectomy report longer-term discomfort – a rate that aligns with the upper estimates in the urological studies. More recent research, including a large-scale postoperative study, argues that the incidence is likely much lower, perhaps under 1%.

    Of course, we must emphasise that these are self-reported experiences. Not all mentions of “pain” equate to a formal PVPS diagnosis. It’s also important to acknowledge that people who are dissatisfied with a medical procedure are generally more likely to post about it online – a well-recognised bias in social data. Even so, the volume, consistency and emotional intensity of these posts suggest the issue warrants closer attention from clinicians and researchers alike.

    Even more strikingly, around 2% of posts mention both “pain” and “regret”, implying serious, potentially life-altering consequences for a small but significant group of people.

    On r/postvasectomypain – a subreddit specifically dedicated to discussing PVPS – the tone is even more sobering. Unsurprisingly, 74% of posts describe persistent, long-term pain. Additionally, 23% mention pain during sex and 27% report changes in sensitivity.

    Posts on this forum also frequently reference vasectomy reversal surgery far more often than more specialised interventions such as microsurgical denervation: a complex nerve-removal procedure used in severe cases of chronic testicular pain, typically when other treatments have failed.

    From AI to andrology: an ethical crossroads

    Why is a professor of AI and physics analysing pain in urology forums?

    Because in today’s digital world, people increasingly turn to online platforms like Reddit for health advice, peer support and decision-making – often before speaking to a clinician. As an AI researcher, I believe we have a responsibility to examine how these discussions shape public understanding, and what they can teach us about real-world healthcare challenges.

    In this case, it’s possible that the drop in vasectomy uptake is linked, at least in part, to the open and emotional sharing of negative outcomes online. These posts are not scaremongering. They’re detailed, candid and often highly specific. They represent a type of real-world evidence that clinical trials and formal studies don’t always capture.

    So, what should we take from all this?

    Terms like “rare”, often used in consent forms and clinical conversations, can obscure the complexity and variability of patient outcomes. Pain following vasectomy, whether mild, temporary, chronic or debilitating, appears common enough to warrant more transparent and nuanced communication.

    This is not an argument against vasectomy. It remains a safe, effective, and empowering option in reproductive planning. But truly informed consent should reflect both the clinical literature and the experiences of those who undergo the procedure, especially when such experiences are now publicly available in large volumes.

    In a world where online forums double as health diaries, support networks and informal research registries, we must take them seriously. Medical language matters. Terms like “rare”, “uncommon” or “low risk” carry real emotional and moral weight. They shape expectations and influence decisions.

    If even a small percentage of men experience long-term pain after vasectomy, that risk should be communicated clearly, in plain English – ideally with a range of percentages drawn from published studies.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Kevin Pimbblet currently receives funding from STFC, EPSRC, The British Academy, The Royal Astronomical Society, The British Ecological Society, and The Office for Students. None are in direct relation to this work.

    – ref. Vasectomy, pain and regret: what online forum Reddit reveals about men’s experiences – https://theconversation.com/vasectomy-pain-and-regret-what-online-forum-reddit-reveals-about-mens-experiences-261633

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Who is Odysseus, hero of Christopher Nolan’s new epic?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stephan Blum, Research associate, Institute for Prehistory and Early History and Medieval Archaeology, University of Tübingen

    Somewhere between hero and hustler, family man and philanderer, king and con artist, Odysseus is one of ancient literature’s most complex figures. In the Iliad, he is the mastermind behind the Trojan horse.

    In Homer’s Odyssey, he is the protagonist of a ten-year journey home – one that sees him encounter gods, monsters, temptations and profound moral dilemmas. Next year, he will be the hero of a new Christopher Nolan epic, and played by Matt Damon.

    Odysseus’s journey from Troy to Ithaca in the Odyssey is anything but a straight line. It’s an epic zigzag through storms, temptations, divine grudges and existential threats. Instead of returning in weeks, he spends a decade adrift.

    He is stranded by nymphs, resists sirens and watches his crew perish one by one. Every stop tests not only his wit but his very sense of self.

    The Odyssey isn’t a tale of noble perseverance. It’s a study in survival. Odysseus deceives, disguises and entangles himself in morally grey romantic liaisons with a sorceress (Circe), nymph (Calypso) and princess (Nausicaa). He does so often as strategist and sometimes as willing participant.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    In Homer’s world, infidelity is a tool of survival. Odysseus survives not through moral clarity, but through his moral agility. His loyalty to his wife Penelope (reportedly played by Anne Hathaway in the new adaptation) is longitudinal, not linear. His compass is always aimed at returning to Ithaca, if not always in a straight line.

    Would this flexibility pass modern ethical scrutiny? Probably not. But what made him successful wasn’t moral integrity – it was his ability to navigate each situation, even if that meant bending the rules.

    While Odysseus adapts, Penelope endures with strategic resilience. For 20 years, she fends off suitors with deft delay tactics. She avoids them by weaving and unweaving a funeral shroud for her husband’s father, Laertes. It’s a defiant, slow motion resistance campaign, waged with thread and silence.

    Penelope and the Suitors by John William Waterhouse (1912).
    Aberdeen Art Gallery

    If Odysseus navigates external monsters, Penelope masters the domestic battlefield. Her fidelity in her husband’s absence is deliberate, political and astute. In a patriarchal world, her power lies in pause. Her story is one of emotional labour and strategic survival.

    Narrative loops and non-linear journeys

    The Odyssey is an ancient masterpiece of non-linear storytelling. It begins in the middle of the action and uses nested narratives, flashbacks and shifting voices. Odysseus tells much of his own story, reframing events from his point of view and reshaping himself in hindsight. Memory becomes montage. Truth bends to necessity. Fact and fiction bleed into one another.

    Homer doesn’t just tell a story – he constructs a labyrinth. The Odyssey anticipates the fractured forms of modernist literature and cinema, where identity is unstable and time itself is malleable.

    Odysseus and Penelope by Johann Heinrich Wilhelm Tischbein (1802).
    Wiki Commons

    When Odysseus finally returns to Ithaca, disguised as a beggar and quietly assessing his ship’s wreckage, it’s no romantic climax. It’s a calculated risk. Penelope doesn’t swoon; she tests. Only when he passes her intimate knowledge test – he reacts with outrage when she suggests moving their bed, which he built around a living olive tree – does she relent. Their reunion is not a Hollywood embrace but a wary negotiation.

    It signals restoration, yes. But also mistrust, trauma and mutual testing. Homecoming, like survival, is complicated.

    Odysseus is not a flawless hero. He is a survivor who negotiates with monsters, debates with gods and crawls home disguised as a beggar. A man shaped as much by cunning as by consequence.

    Would Odysseus pass a modern ethics exam? Certainly not. Would he charm the professor, flip the question and still walk out with an A? Absolutely. Some stories endure not because they are true, but because they were told by survivors.

    This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and may contain links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who is Odysseus, hero of Christopher Nolan’s new epic? – https://theconversation.com/who-is-odysseus-hero-of-christopher-nolans-new-epic-261781

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: England’s new free speech law comes into force – what it means for universities

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Eric Heinze, Professor of Law and Humanities, Queen Mary University of London

    Matej Kastelic/Shutterstock

    The Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act 2023 comes into force throughout England on August 1 2025. Designed to stop universities from censoring controversial or unpopular ideas, the law gives the Office for Students responsibility for ensuring institutions comply.

    This law will mean that many universities will have to change the way they approach free speech.

    When it comes to adopting campus speech policies, educational establishments have always had three choices.

    One option has been to follow the law, permitting whichever messages the law already allows, while banning whichever messages the law already forbids. UK law prohibits, for example, certain core expressions of racism, anti-LGBTQ+ hatred, Islamophobia, antisemitism, or glorification of terrorism. I’ll call this the “legalist” option.

    Another approach is to allow more speech than the law allows. This would, for example, permit guest lecturers to advocate white supremacy or the belief that only heterosexual relationships and behaviour are normal. I’ll call this the “libertarian” option. It treats free speech as sacrosanct.

    But this option would never be adopted. Few institutions would welcome the torrent of parental complaints, media publicity, donor withdrawals, police investigations, or full-blown litigation that would follow.

    A third option is to permit less speech than the law allows. This would mean, for example, banning sexist speech, which is otherwise still permitted under UK law. We can call this the “communitarian” option. It views educational institutions as more than just places for exchanging ideas: they must also promote civic values, aiming to build an empathic society.

    Changing approaches

    In the past, British universities could choose option three, cancelling or avoiding events featuring messages that, although legal, risk stoking campus divisions.

    Some institutions have stopped controversial speakers through decisions by senior leadership. For example, in 2013 UCL’s senior administrators banned a group that advocated sex segregation. Other times, efforts to cancel events have been made by students or staff. In 2015, the University of York cancelled events for International Men’s Day after complaints from students and staff.

    The effect of the Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act will be to shift universities from the communitarian to the legalist model. Campus members wishing to stage events will still have to comply with routine guidelines on reserving campus venues, ticketing participants, ensuring security controls, and the like. However, under the act, universities may no longer impede the communication of otherwise legal messages solely on the grounds of their provocative content.

    For advocates of free speech, this act may still not go far enough since it keeps an escape hatch. Management can still cancel controversial events if the institution lacks the means to ensure adequate security, and such claims are often difficult to verify.

    Yet for others, the act will go too far. Some would argue that existing law in Britain does not adequately protect vulnerable groups, and that universities should stick to the communitarian ideal, creating a refuge that the law often fails to provide.

    These anxieties become ever greater in our internet era, when misinformation can proliferate. Some may fear that abandoning the communitarian ethos will turn the campus into a wild west of free speech, disproportionately affecting its most vulnerable members.

    The act aims to preserve free speech on university campuses.
    Gorodenkoff/Shutterstock

    However, online communications have also proved to be powerful mobilising tools for staff and students, so online power hierarchies may work in more complex ways than meets the eye.

    Note also that nothing in the act abolishes student welfare services. Individually targeted acts of bullying, threats, stalking and harassment will remain under the aegis of campus oversight as well as UK law. Staff or students exhibiting racist, sexist, homophobic, or transphobic conduct will remain as subject as they were before to disciplinary proceedings and even dismissal or expulsion.

    Finally, it is worth bearing in mind that the act’s most salient ingredients are procedural, placing considerable burdens on institutions to facilitate free speech and deal transparently with accusations of censorship. Yet whether this will lead to an explosion of complaints, and whether ideas exchanged on campus will really differ so much from those we already hear today, remains to be seen.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Eric Heinze has received funding for submitting a report to the UK Commission for Countering Extremism.

    – ref. England’s new free speech law comes into force – what it means for universities – https://theconversation.com/englands-new-free-speech-law-comes-into-force-what-it-means-for-universities-262080

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: English universities now have a duty to uphold freedom of speech – here’s how it might affect students’ sense of belonging

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Richard Bale, Director of Academic Development and Research, Associate Professor, The University of Law

    Cast Of Thousands/Shutterstock

    The Higher Education (Freedom of Speech) Act, which comes into force on August 1 2025, means universities in England now have a new duty to uphold “robust” strategies to ensure freedom of speech on campus.

    To support universities in navigating the boundaries of lawful and unlawful speech, universities regulator the Office for Students appointed its first director for freedom of speech and academic freedom in 2023. Arif Ahmed, who is also a professor of philosophy at the University of Cambridge, has reportedly said that coming across views students might find offensive is part of a university education.

    It’s possible, though, that feeling offended comes up against the important concept of “belonging” at university. In the context of higher education, belonging is often defined as feeling at home, included and valued. It is linked to more students staying in their courses, having enhanced wellbeing, and being able to learn well at university.

    But feeling offended and feeling you belong at university don’t have to be contradictory. Some of our research has found that belonging can also mean being able to challenge the dominant culture at a university, which may exclude students who don’t fit a particular mould.

    Being able to challenge opinions is important.
    Matej Kastelic/Shutterstock

    Some students explained that they proactively resist the prevalent image of the “typical” student. For example, in highly selective universities, students are often extremely competitive and industrious with a tendency to overwork. But this culture may not align with the work-life balance prioritised by some students.

    This form of “positive not-belonging” often takes the form of friendship groups and communities that cultivate an alternative kind of belonging. These groups may well enable greater freedom of self-expression, without fear of being judged or feeling pressured to conform to pre-existing academic cultures.

    While some students are able to carve out these collective and alternative communities for belonging, many others feel their presence and sense of belonging is conditional – especially minority ethnic students. Clearer advocacy for free speech might help these students feel more comfortable speaking up and building a stronger sense of belonging.

    We must not forget that the idea of belonging carries power dynamics, and often has implications for what is perceived as up for debate – and what is not.

    Existing free speech

    What’s more, the views of students suggest that free speech is already part of their experience at university. In 2023, the Office for Students added a question about freedom of expression to the annual National Student Survey, which gathers final-year undergraduates’ opinions on their higher education experience. The question, added for students at English universities only, asked how “free” students felt to express their ideas, opinions and beliefs.

    The results showed that 86% did feel they had this freedom. This has remained stable in the latest survey, with a slight increase to just over 88% in the 2025 results.

    The Office for Students also commissioned YouGov to poll research and teaching staff at English universities about their perceptions of free speech in higher education in 2024.

    Some positive results mirrored the student data. For example, 89% of academics reported that they are confident they understand what free speech means in higher education. But the polling also found that 21% did not feel free to discuss controversial topics in their teaching.

    This lack of perceived freedom of expression does not only have a negative impact on staff. It is widely understood that a key purpose of higher education is to nurture students’ independent thinking and self-awareness. A key step toward this goal is not to be afraid of engaging in difficult conversations, including asking questions.

    However, this does not happen automatically. Universities need to provide clear scaffolding, guidance and practical steps to protect freedom of speech. It is also important to normalise and promote conversations about topics such as cultural differences and intercultural competence, which refers to the ability to interact with people from different cultural backgrounds effectively and appropriately.

    If addressed, these discussions can help to foster inclusion, and promote diversity of thought and expression.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. English universities now have a duty to uphold freedom of speech – here’s how it might affect students’ sense of belonging – https://theconversation.com/english-universities-now-have-a-duty-to-uphold-freedom-of-speech-heres-how-it-might-affect-students-sense-of-belonging-260867

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: New peace plan increases pressure on Israel and US as momentum grows for Palestinian statehood

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin

    A new vision for Middle East peace emerged this week which proposes the withdrawal of Israel from Gaza and the West Bank, the disarming and disbanding of Hamas and the creation of a unified Palestinian state. The plan emerged from a “high-level conference” in New York on July 29, which assembled representatives of 17 states, the European Union and the Arab League.

    The resulting proposal is “a comprehensive and actionable framework for the implementation of the two-state solution and the achievement of peace and security for all”.

    Signatories include Turkey and the Middle Eastern states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan. Europe was represented by France, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Spain and the UK. Indonesia was there for Asia, Senegal for Africa, and Brazil, Canada and Mexico for the Americas. Neither the US nor Israel were present.

    Significantly, it is the first time the Arab states have called for Hamas to disarm and disband. But, while condemning Hamas’s attack on Israel of October 7 2023 and recalling that the taking of hostages is a violation of international law, the document is unsparing in its connection between a state of Palestine and an end to Israel’s assault on Gaza’s civilians.

    It says: “Absent decisive measures toward the two-state solution and robust international guarantees, the conflict will deepen and regional peace will remain elusive.”

    A plan for the reconstruction of Gaza will be developed by the Arab states and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation – a Jeddah-based group which aims to be the collective voice of the Muslim world – supported by an international fund. The details will be hammered out at a Gaza Reconstruction and Recovery Conference, to be held in Cairo.

    It is a bold initiative. In theory, it could end the Israeli mass killing in Gaza, remove Hamas from power and begin the implementation of a process for a state of Palestine. The question is whether it has any chance of success.

    First, there appears to be growing momentum to press ahead with recognition of the state of Palestine as part of a comprehensive peace plan leading to a two-state solution. France, the UK and, most recently, Canada have announced they would take that step at the UN general assembly in September. The UK stated that it would do so unless Israel agreed to a ceasefire and the commencement of a substantive peace process.



    Read more:
    UK and France pledges won’t stop Netanyahu bombing Gaza – but Donald Trump or Israel’s military could

    These announcements follow those made in May 2024 by Spain, Ireland and Norway, three of the other European signatories. By the end of September at least 150 of the UN’s 193 members will recognise Palestinian statehood. Recognition is largely symbolic without a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from both Gaza and the West Bank. But it is essential symbolism.

    For years, many European countries, Canada, Australia and the US have said that recognition could not be declared if there was the prospect of Israel-Palestine negotiations. Now the sequence is reversed: recognition is necessary as pressure for a ceasefire and the necessary talks to ensure the security of both Israelis and Palestinians.

    Israel accelerated that reversal at the start of March, when it rejected the scheduled move to phase two of the six-week ceasefire negotiated with the help of the US, and imposed a blockade on aid coming into the Strip.

    The Netanyahu government continues to hold out against the ceasefire. But its loud blame of Hamas is becoming harder to accept. The images of the starvation in Gaza and warnings by doctors, humanitarian organisations and the UN of an effective famine with the deaths of thousands can no longer be denied.

    Saudi Arabia and Qatar, behind the scenes and through their embassies, have been encouraging European countries to make the jump to recognition. Their efforts at the UN conference in New York this week are another front of that campaign.

    Israel and the Trump administration

    But in the short term, there is little prospect of the Netanyahu government giving way with its mass killing, let alone entering talks for two states. Notably neither Israel nor the US took part in the conference.

    Trump has criticised the scenes of starvation in Gaza. But his administration has joined Netanyahu in vitriolic denunciation of France and the UK over their intentions to recognise Palestine. And the US president has warned the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, that recognition of Palestinian statehood would threaten Canada’s trade deal with the US.

    In response to Trump’s concern over the images of starving children and his exhortation “We’ve got to get the kids fed,” Israel has airdropped a few pallets of aid – less than a truck’s worth. Yet this appears more of a public relations exercise directed at Washington than a genuine attempt to ease the terrible condition on the Strip.

    A small number of lorries with supplies from UN and humanitarian organisations have also crossed the border, but only after lengthy delays and with half still held up. There is no security for transport and delivery of the aid inside Gaza.

    A sacrifice for a state?

    So the conference declaration is not relief for Gaza. Instead, it is yet another marker of Israel’s increasing isolation.

    After France’s announcement, the Netanyahu government thundered: “Such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy … A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel.”

    But while recognising Hamas’s mass killing of October 7 2023, most governments and their populations do not perceive Israel as attacking Hamas and its fighters. They see the Netanyahu government and Israeli military slaying and starving civilians.

    Even in the US, where the Trump administration is trying to crush sympathy for Palestine and Gazans in universities, non-governmental organisations and the public sphere, opinion is shifting.

    In a Gallup poll taken in the US and released on July 29, only 32% of respondents supported Israel’s actions in Gaza – an all-time low – and 60% opposed them. Netanyahu was viewed unfavourably by 52% and favourably by only 29%.

    Israel has lost its moment of “normalisation” with Arab states. Its economic links are strained and its oft-repeated claim to being the “Middle East’s only democracy” is bloodstained beyond recognition.

    This will be of no comfort to the people of Gaza facing death. But in the longer term, there is the prospect that this sacrifice will be the catalyst to recognise Palestine that disappeared in 1948.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. New peace plan increases pressure on Israel and US as momentum grows for Palestinian statehood – https://theconversation.com/new-peace-plan-increases-pressure-on-israel-and-us-as-momentum-grows-for-palestinian-statehood-262259

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: New peace plan increases pressure on Israel and US as momentum grows for Palestinian statehood

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics, Clinton Institute, University College Dublin

    A new vision for Middle East peace emerged this week which proposes the withdrawal of Israel from Gaza and the West Bank, the disarming and disbanding of Hamas and the creation of a unified Palestinian state. The plan emerged from a “high-level conference” in New York on July 29, which assembled representatives of 17 states, the European Union and the Arab League.

    The resulting proposal is “a comprehensive and actionable framework for the implementation of the two-state solution and the achievement of peace and security for all”.

    Signatories include Turkey and the Middle Eastern states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt and Jordan. Europe was represented by France, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Spain and the UK. Indonesia was there for Asia, Senegal for Africa, and Brazil, Canada and Mexico for the Americas. Neither the US nor Israel were present.

    Significantly, it is the first time the Arab states have called for Hamas to disarm and disband. But, while condemning Hamas’s attack on Israel of October 7 2023 and recalling that the taking of hostages is a violation of international law, the document is unsparing in its connection between a state of Palestine and an end to Israel’s assault on Gaza’s civilians.

    It says: “Absent decisive measures toward the two-state solution and robust international guarantees, the conflict will deepen and regional peace will remain elusive.”

    A plan for the reconstruction of Gaza will be developed by the Arab states and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation – a Jeddah-based group which aims to be the collective voice of the Muslim world – supported by an international fund. The details will be hammered out at a Gaza Reconstruction and Recovery Conference, to be held in Cairo.

    It is a bold initiative. In theory, it could end the Israeli mass killing in Gaza, remove Hamas from power and begin the implementation of a process for a state of Palestine. The question is whether it has any chance of success.

    First, there appears to be growing momentum to press ahead with recognition of the state of Palestine as part of a comprehensive peace plan leading to a two-state solution. France, the UK and, most recently, Canada have announced they would take that step at the UN general assembly in September. The UK stated that it would do so unless Israel agreed to a ceasefire and the commencement of a substantive peace process.



    Read more:
    UK and France pledges won’t stop Netanyahu bombing Gaza – but Donald Trump or Israel’s military could

    These announcements follow those made in May 2024 by Spain, Ireland and Norway, three of the other European signatories. By the end of September at least 150 of the UN’s 193 members will recognise Palestinian statehood. Recognition is largely symbolic without a ceasefire and Israeli withdrawal from both Gaza and the West Bank. But it is essential symbolism.

    For years, many European countries, Canada, Australia and the US have said that recognition could not be declared if there was the prospect of Israel-Palestine negotiations. Now the sequence is reversed: recognition is necessary as pressure for a ceasefire and the necessary talks to ensure the security of both Israelis and Palestinians.

    Israel accelerated that reversal at the start of March, when it rejected the scheduled move to phase two of the six-week ceasefire negotiated with the help of the US, and imposed a blockade on aid coming into the Strip.

    The Netanyahu government continues to hold out against the ceasefire. But its loud blame of Hamas is becoming harder to accept. The images of the starvation in Gaza and warnings by doctors, humanitarian organisations and the UN of an effective famine with the deaths of thousands can no longer be denied.

    Saudi Arabia and Qatar, behind the scenes and through their embassies, have been encouraging European countries to make the jump to recognition. Their efforts at the UN conference in New York this week are another front of that campaign.

    Israel and the Trump administration

    But in the short term, there is little prospect of the Netanyahu government giving way with its mass killing, let alone entering talks for two states. Notably neither Israel nor the US took part in the conference.

    Trump has criticised the scenes of starvation in Gaza. But his administration has joined Netanyahu in vitriolic denunciation of France and the UK over their intentions to recognise Palestine. And the US president has warned the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, that recognition of Palestinian statehood would threaten Canada’s trade deal with the US.

    In response to Trump’s concern over the images of starving children and his exhortation “We’ve got to get the kids fed,” Israel has airdropped a few pallets of aid – less than a truck’s worth. Yet this appears more of a public relations exercise directed at Washington than a genuine attempt to ease the terrible condition on the Strip.

    A small number of lorries with supplies from UN and humanitarian organisations have also crossed the border, but only after lengthy delays and with half still held up. There is no security for transport and delivery of the aid inside Gaza.

    A sacrifice for a state?

    So the conference declaration is not relief for Gaza. Instead, it is yet another marker of Israel’s increasing isolation.

    After France’s announcement, the Netanyahu government thundered: “Such a move rewards terror and risks creating another Iranian proxy … A Palestinian state in these conditions would be a launch pad to annihilate Israel.”

    But while recognising Hamas’s mass killing of October 7 2023, most governments and their populations do not perceive Israel as attacking Hamas and its fighters. They see the Netanyahu government and Israeli military slaying and starving civilians.

    Even in the US, where the Trump administration is trying to crush sympathy for Palestine and Gazans in universities, non-governmental organisations and the public sphere, opinion is shifting.

    In a Gallup poll taken in the US and released on July 29, only 32% of respondents supported Israel’s actions in Gaza – an all-time low – and 60% opposed them. Netanyahu was viewed unfavourably by 52% and favourably by only 29%.

    Israel has lost its moment of “normalisation” with Arab states. Its economic links are strained and its oft-repeated claim to being the “Middle East’s only democracy” is bloodstained beyond recognition.

    This will be of no comfort to the people of Gaza facing death. But in the longer term, there is the prospect that this sacrifice will be the catalyst to recognise Palestine that disappeared in 1948.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Scott Lucas does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. New peace plan increases pressure on Israel and US as momentum grows for Palestinian statehood – https://theconversation.com/new-peace-plan-increases-pressure-on-israel-and-us-as-momentum-grows-for-palestinian-statehood-262259

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • How selfie parks limit tourism damage to the world’s most ‘Instagrammable’ destinations

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lauren A. Siegel, Senior Lecturer in Tourism and Events, University of Greenwich

    The real thing? Getting the money shot Tegalalang Rice Terrace in Bali, Indonesia, kitzcorner/Shutterstock

    It’s no secret that social media has changed travel. Holidaymakers increasingly seek to imitate images posted by influencers and their peers on platforms like Instagram and TikTok. In our increasingly digital world, travellers now chase the perfect shot like treasure hunters. That can mean navigating crowds, long lines and sometimes even danger – all for content from the world’s most “Instagrammable” spots.

    In a widely viewed TikTok video, influencer Zoe Rae (the sister of Love Island star Molly-Mae Hague) voiced her disappointment after visiting Bali. Apparently, it did not look as it did when she saw it online. Her comments attracted a backlash, with critics arguing she was simply experiencing the reality behind the content she and others have helped to promote.

    Research has found that many influencers and social media users participate in an “aesthetic economy”. That is, travel is “performed” for likes, views and brand deals. The result? Holidaymakers seeking out highly photogenic (“Instagrammable”) destinations from which to stage their content.

    Sometimes “getting the shot” becomes more important than any meaningful cultural exchange between hosts and guests. The behaviour of social media-induced tourists has been found to be more irresponsible than that of other types of travellers.

    There were 379 selfie-related deaths between 2008-21, and the quest for the perfect photo can also lead to trespassing and vandalism. Additionally, studies have found that social-media-induced tourists can cause varying levels of damage to the hotspots they visit. This can include environmental erosion, traffic congestion, pollution, increased rubbish and generally making daily life difficult for locals.

    Stage-managed selfies

    But the demand has fuelled the development of shadow economies like “selfie museums”. These have begun to emerge around the world: Chicago’s wndr Museum, London’s Selfie Factory, Selfie House in Prague, Brazil’s Museum Selfie Day in Sao Paulo, to name just a few.

    Our new study shines a light on these parks – purpose-built, self-contained spaces that give visitors a visually stunning, curated environment in which to create content (most often of themselves). For the price of admission, they get convenient access to lighting, props, professional photographers and backdrops for creating content for social media in “Instagrammable” places.

    Selfie parks in Bali, Indonesia, offer rice terraces, swings, nests and other “sceneography” associated with its destination image. And there are add-ons like dress rentals, professional photographers who can follow visitors around the park, and personalised photo-editing services.

    Selfie parks can offer soft control over visitors in the form of guards, guides and security cameras to monitor behaviour. And they implement daily safety checks and regularly train staff to ensure guests are supervised as they take photos. This is an important alternative to the sometimes risky behaviour of selfie-seekers in viral hotspots.

    Of course, the elephant in the room here might be the commodification and inauthenticity that selfie parks represent. Other research has found that locals can be divided about staged photo opportunities, with some seeing them as inauthentic and gimmicky.

    There is an awareness that these encounters do not represent the real life of locals. Others, however, consider the money to be made and employment that these opportunities can provide.



    Read more:
    Why are people taking selfies in front of the LA wildfires?

    Our findings from Bali showed that the selfie parks are extremely successful – with more than 1,500 visitors reported in low season. The offering has been expanded in recent years to add more photo spots, infinity pools and even a day club.

    For now, all of Bali’s selfie parks are locally owned and managed. This creates an important source of employment, as well as being a launchpad for entrepreneurship among locals.

    The idea of selfie parks may take a bit of getting used to. But having spaces where people can take photos, videos and create social media content safely, while bringing in revenue and employment for local communities, offers a viable solution. This is especially true of the places that struggle most with the negative impacts of tourists motivated by social media.

    Love them or loathe them, selfie parks probably aren’t going away. And they may represent a broader shift in how people travel, share and consume experiences. In destinations facing an influx of selfie-seeking visitors, they might just be a surprisingly practical solution.

    Other “viral” destinations should consider establishing dedicated spaces in which tourists can create content. Destinations like the island of Santorini, nicknamed Greece’s “Instagram island” amid extreme overcrowding alongside other harms, could be the type of place to benefit.

    If so many of today’s tourists are chasing the perfect picture, maybe it makes sense to give them a place designed exactly for that.

    The Conversation

    Lauren A. Siegel does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How selfie parks limit tourism damage to the world’s most ‘Instagrammable’ destinations – https://theconversation.com/how-selfie-parks-limit-tourism-damage-to-the-worlds-most-instagrammable-destinations-262071

  • Storm Floris: the weather is rarely this windy in August – which makes it more dangerous

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Colin Manning, Postdoctoral Research Associate in Climate Science, Newcastle University

    Storm Floris made landfall in northern parts of the UK on the morning of Monday August 4 2025, bringing intense rainfall followed by severe winds throughout the afternoon. The Met Office issued an amber weather warning for much of Scotland and yellow alerts for parts of Northern Ireland and northern England.

    Affected areas can expect 20mm–40mm of rain on average, with some areas of Scotland potentially receiving up to 80mm. Wind speeds in exposed and elevated regions could reach 80mph–90mph, while gusts of 50mph-60mph are forecast for much of Scotland.

    The storm’s defining characteristic is the unusually strong winds for August, a time typically less prone to severe wind events. The odd seasonal timing has increased the risk to the public, as more people are outdoors, travelling for holidays or staying in campsites. In addition, trees remain in full leaf, making them more likely to be brought down by high winds.

    Authorities are anticipating significant disruption to transport and electricity networks largely due to falling trees. This is underlined by recent research showing an increased risk of large power outages during windstorms that occur in summer. A large amount of debris on the ground from trees may also block drainage systems and contribute to localised flooding.

    Persistent strong winds will combine with periods of heavy rainfall for the duration of the amber alert, which expires at 23:00. This will create difficult conditions for emergency workers and prevent access to affected locations if roads are blocked, potentially prolonging disruptions to travel and power networks.

    Is this typical of summer months?

    Storm Floris carries all the hallmarks of a classic mid-latitude storm. These develop due to sharp temperature contrasts between the northern and southern Atlantic Ocean and intensify under the influence of a strong jet stream. This is a core of fast-moving air high in the atmosphere that stretches across the Atlantic and often steers storms towards the UK.

    Such conditions are unusual for the summer months, when warmer Atlantic sea temperatures typically weaken these temperature gradients and shift them farther north, closer to the polar regions. However, it is not uncommon for such storms to occur in August.

    Notable ones in the past five years include Storm Ellen, which extensively damaged electricity distribution infrastructure in Ireland and led the Irish meterological service to produce and red and amber weather warning for southern parts of Ireland. Previous storms in August cancelled the Boardmasters music festival in Cornwall in 2019 and closed two stages of Leeds festival in 2024.

    Floris is classified as a Shapiro-Keyser cyclone, a type distinguished by a warm core encircled by colder air on its north, west and south sides. This structure is visible in the way the storm’s frontal system wraps around its centre, forming a characteristic comma-shape in the clouds around the cyclone centre. Storms of this kind are responsible for a significant number of the UK’s most damaging wind events.

    These cyclones often feature sharp pressure gradients and strong low-level airflows, particularly an air stream known as the cold jet, or cold conveyor belt, which can produce severe surface winds. In some cases, they can also generate a sting jet, a narrow stream of air that descends rapidly from around 5km above the land surface, delivering intense, damaging gusts.

    Fortunately, satellite imagery suggests that Storm Floris is unlikely to have produced a sting jet. However, the cold jet alone may still drive wind speeds high enough to cause widespread disruption.

    These types of storms can also produce intense rainfall along their frontal boundaries, as seen with Storm Floris. Warmer summer temperatures allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture, increasing the potential for heavier downpours. In addition, the heat contributes to a more unstable atmosphere, encouraging strong convective ascents of air that can yield extremely heavy and localised rainfall.

    Floris in the future

    Research shows that climate change will influence the characteristics of storms like Floris, though not all aspects will be affected equally. Warmer temperatures are expected to make future storms wetter, as increased atmospheric moisture and convective activity enhances rainfall, particularly along frontal systems. However, projections of wind extremes remain more uncertain.

    Climate models generally suggest a modest intensification of winter storms over the UK and a decrease in the intensity of summer storms, implying that systems like Floris could become less common. These projections are largely tied to expected changes in Atlantic temperature gradients and the behaviour of the jet stream.

    That said, most long-term climate projections rely on relatively coarse-resolution models which often fail to capture key features that drive storm intensification. These include the gulf stream (a warm Atlantic Ocean current) and drivers of extreme winds including the cold jet and sting jet.

    A higher-resolution model, like that used in real-time forecasting for Storm Floris, predicts more intense winter windstorms in a warmer climate. Much of this intensification is linked to stronger cold jets and a potential increase in storms that generate sting jets.

    Many powerful summer and autumn storms in the UK originate from tropical cyclones such as hurricanes, as seen with Storm Ophelia in 2017. These systems are poorly represented in lower-resolution climate models, yet they contribute significantly to Europe’s most extreme windstorms.

    While Storm Floris has no tropical origins, a variety of storms can affect northern Europe at this time of year. The complexity of assessing their risks remains an area of ongoing research.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    The Conversation

    Colin Manning receives funding from UKRI.

    – ref. Storm Floris: the weather is rarely this windy in August – which makes it more dangerous – https://theconversation.com/storm-floris-the-weather-is-rarely-this-windy-in-august-which-makes-it-more-dangerous-262535

  • Can Syria rebuild its economy from the ashes of war?

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Faek Menla Ali, Associate Professor in Finance, University of Sussex

    More than a decade of devastating conflict has left Syria’s economy in tatters, its infrastructure in ruins and its population deeply fragmented. The fledgling transitional government in Damascus, which came to power following a lightning rebel offensive in December 2024, often speaks of a “new Syria”. But the pressing question remains: how long will recovery take?

    The numbers are stark. In 2011, the year war broke out, the World Bank estimated Syria’s GDP at around US$67.5 billion (£50.7 billion). Its most recent estimate, for 2023, puts GDP at US$20 billion – a drop of more than 70%. And these figures don’t tell the whole story. Inflation and currency collapse make it difficult to compare over time.

    Some organisations offer rough inflation estimates for Syria, but these are obscured by currency depreciation. The Syrian pound has lost more than 99.5% of its value against the US dollar since 2011, falling from 50 pounds per dollar to around 10,375 pounds per dollar today. This severe depreciation distorts the real domestic price picture.

    To get a better sense of on-the-ground price trends, I recently conducted an informal survey of non-tradable goods and services across Syria. It included things like rent, haircuts and private clinic fees. The results of this exploratory approach suggest that, in US dollar terms, prices for such items have risen by about 50% since 2010.

    In other words, inflation in Syria has been real and significant – not just a side effect of exchange rate collapse. Patterns varied sharply across the country. While prices have increased in areas of relative stability and refuge, they stagnated or declined in cities devastated by war.

    With this inflation adjustment, I estimate that Syria’s real GDP in 2024 – measured in constant 2010 US dollars – is closer to US$13.3 billion, an 80% drop from its pre-war level. This figure more accurately reflects the economy’s actual performance, including wellbeing, living standards and productivity.

    To put this figure in context, Syria’s GDP would now be around US$121.3 billion – excluding the anomalous pandemic year – had the economy continued growing at its pre-war average of 5% per year. The gap between this counterfactual and current output reflects the immense toll of the war.

    Rebuilding Syria’s economy will be a monumental challenge. At a high growth rate of 7% per year, it would still take over 30 years for Syria to catch up to its pre-war trajectory. Even with exceptionally strong growth of 10%, the process would stretch over two decades.

    Jump-starting growth

    The causes of Syria’s economic collapse are well known. The war resulted in the destruction of much of its physical capital, the displacement of labour, the erosion of institutions and the imposition of sweeping international sanctions.

    Some US and EU sanctions have been eased. But this alone won’t be enough to reverse Syria’s economic decline. Meanwhile, the Trump administration in the US has announced 41% tariffs on Syrian imports, hindering future trade with the US.

    The Syrian government is betting heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI) to jump-start growth. This approach comes with risks. In weakly regulated markets, FDI can raise both operating and consumer costs – particularly in monopolistic or oligopolistic sectors such as utilities, telecommunications and ports. This may contribute to rising inflation and worsening inequality.

    Syria’s pre-war economic model, which was characterised by crony capitalism and limited competition, raises further concerns about whether FDI will genuinely broaden opportunity or simply entrench existing elites. Without transparent policy frameworks, there is a danger that liberalisation could crowd out local firms, undermine capacity building and fail to diversify the economy.

    The privatisation of state-owned enterprises in Syria is already underway, though the future of the social safety net remains unclear. Greater openness may attract capital and expertise, but it will also expose Syria to global market volatility. This is an unfamiliar dynamic for a country that has long been insulated.

    The critical question is whether the Syrian government’s strategy can generate an export-driven recovery. A stronger current account and healthier foreign currency reserves would boost the capacity of Syria’s economy to withstand future economic shocks.

    Agriculture, once a major contributor to GDP, should be a policy priority. So too should revitalising Syria’s once-globally competitive manufacturing sectors, such as the textile industry in Aleppo.

    The oil and gas sector, which historically underpinned fiscal revenues, will also play a key role if stability returns. Other possible growth areas include boosting the tourism sector and positioning Syria as a powerhouse for light manufacturing.

    Yet FDI, and the broader surge in capital inflows, cannot deliver financial stability on their own. Many post-conflict countries experience balance-of-payments pressures and renewed economic crises if capital flows are not well managed.

    Research on global capital flow dynamics over the past four decades has provided strong evidence of boom-bust cycles in these flows, especially in developing and emerging market economies.

    Rebuilding effective institutions, the rule of law and accountability mechanisms in Syria will thus be critical. These are essential not only to attract investment, but also to prevent the corruption and rent-seeking that often characterise post-war transitions.

    A credible path forward must also include the active mobilisation of Syria’s diaspora – a deep reservoir of capital, skills and entrepreneurial energy. Approximately 400,000 Syrians have returned from neighbouring countries since December 2024, most from Turkey. This has included a handful of prominent businessmen.

    A final point is that any sustainable recovery depends on political inclusion, especially given Syria’s ethnic and religious diversity. Economies that embrace pluralism tend to be more resilient and prosperous. Long-term prosperity will depend not only on sound policies but also on the kind of state Syria chooses to rebuild.

    The coming years will be decisive. Syria’s economic trajectory hinges on whether it can strike the right balance between opening to global markets and protecting vulnerable domestic economic sectors from the shocks of rapid liberalisation.

    With prudent policymaking, transparent governance and inclusive political solutions, Syria can begin to lay the foundation for long-term economic recovery. Much depends on the choices made in this pivotal chapter.

    The Conversation

    Faek Menla Ali does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can Syria rebuild its economy from the ashes of war? – https://theconversation.com/can-syria-rebuild-its-economy-from-the-ashes-of-war-262271

  • Why people ignore debt letters – and what it says about inequality today

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ryan Davey, Lecturer in Social Sciences, Cardiff University

    Thomas Andre Fure/Shutterstock

    You get a payment reminder through the letterbox, maybe for a credit card, an overdraft, a bill, or a parking fine. You ignore it and leave the envelope unopened, or put it to one side to deal with later. Many of us will recognise this scenario.

    Ignoring debts and other payment commitments is often dismissed as being irresponsible. But a closer look reveals that many people see things differently, reflecting a deeper point about inequality in Britain today.

    To understand people’s experiences of debt problems better, I lived in a low-income community in the south of England for 18 months, where debt problems were commonplace. I also interviewed debt advisers and their clients across the UK. It gave me a unique opportunity to understand their situation and how they respond to debt, something which I detail in my new book.

    While debt relative to income is falling, the total amount of unsecured household debt now far outstrips its peak during the 2008 global financial crisis.

    Amid big rises in the cost of living, more and more people have been borrowing money to cover essentials like food, energy, rent or council tax. In October 2024, 4 million low-income households held loans they took out for this purpose, and nearly nine out of ten of them were going without essentials anyway.

    Meanwhile, lenders continue to charge the highest interest to those least able to afford it. In 2024, an estimated 5.5 million people were falling behind on their bills or credit repayments.

    In the community where I lived, many people worked, but their wages were not enough to afford what they needed. So residents borrowed money to make ends meet, claimed welfare benefits or did cash-in-hand work. This reflects a broader reality with labour markets in Britain today, where 4.5 million wage-workers are paid below the real living wage.

    As a result, most of the residents I worked with were in arrears with one or more payments. They received phone calls, letters and knocks at the door from debt collectors, threatening court orders, or they had to deal with bailiffs trying to seize their possessions. Some worried about being evicted.

    This is a distressing situation that can easily lead to mental health problems. Debt problems are strongly linked to diagnosed mental health disorders and even suicide. All of the debt advice clients I interviewed had experienced anxiety, depression, suicidal thoughts or other mental health issues.

    Making light

    However, in the community where I temporarily lived, many residents had found ways to try to stay optimistic despite the threats of debt enforcement. Some made light of their debts by joking about how bad they were at repaying or how poor their credit ratings were.

    Many people focused on their home and family life. One woman worried about it being “a skint few weeks”, saying: “We’ll get through it. We always do. You just focus on what’s around you.”

    An unemployed man in his late forties told me how his pride in his 12-year-old daughter kept him from “going suicidal”.

    Most of all, though, people avoided their creditors. Residents often strained to meet repayment demands, but just as often they ignored them. They hung up the telephone when debt collectors called, left envelopes unopened or stashed away, or pretended not to be at home if bailiffs visited. One man said when he received a demand to pay his water bills: “Well, they can fuck off,” and threw the letter in the bin.

    Trying to deal with debt head-on, in the sense of paying what debt collectors were demanding by the exact time they demanded it, could create immense anxiety and even physical health problems. One man told me: “You know, for a while I was trying to keep on top of them and eventually … well, it was making me ill [because of worrying about it]. So I couldn’t keep on like that. I just left them and got on with things.”

    These accounts reveal a deeper point about inequality in Britain. Financial lending tends to extract wealth from those with less and transfer it towards the better-off. Debt is a systemic feature of our economy, and debt problems have complex causes. However, the threat of enforcement convinces many people they are single-handedly responsible for being in debt. This places the blame for poverty on the shoulders of those experiencing it, subtly implying the wealthy are morally superior.

    Stigma

    More than mere personal prejudice, the stigma around debt is hard-wired into the legal system. If we assume that every legally valid debt must be paid as a moral duty, no matter what, then we ignore the economic realities that make borrowing a necessity for so many. This simplistic assumption only reinforces the hardship of those in debt.

    Take the example of people ignoring their debts. Usually they are labelled as irresponsible or lacking financial skills. But ignoring debts is often a deliberate response to a situation that people find immoral or harmful to their health.

    It is tempting to think that if debt is the problem, the remedy is to reform it. Subsidising credit so lower-income groups pay lower interest, restoring funding for debt advice, amplifying the voices of those who have been in debt and widening access to insolvency and debt cancellation could all improve things.

    But reliance on borrowing is also a symptom of broader issues. These may be better addressed by efforts to redistribute resources and curb coercive sanctions, such as taxing wealth, guaranteeing higher incomes (both wages and benefits), controlling the cost of rent and other essentials, protecting against eviction and abolishing bailiffs.

    In the meantime, many indebted people on low incomes will continue to ignore debt collectors’ demands. Through their actions, I believe they question the widely held assumption that there is always a moral duty to pay in our unequal world.

    The Conversation

    Ryan Davey has received funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, the William Wyse Fund and the Cambridge Political Economy Society Trust at the University of Cambridge, and a Vice-Chancellor’s Fellowship at the University of Bristol.

    – ref. Why people ignore debt letters – and what it says about inequality today – https://theconversation.com/why-people-ignore-debt-letters-and-what-it-says-about-inequality-today-256293

  • Why we still don’t understand what happens to women’s bodies during labour

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Anastasia Topalidou, Research Fellow (Perinatal Biomechanics and Health Technologies), University of Lancashire

    Photo by Jonathan Borba, CC BY-SA

    Maternal and newborn deaths are rising globally, not just in low- and middle-income countries, but in wealthy nations too. Researchers have described the situation as a “global failure” and a “major scandal”.

    In the UK, more women are now dying during pregnancy and childbirth than at any time in the past 20 years, despite a fall in the birth rate. A national maternity investigation has just been launched, and public concern is growing.

    Yet while politicians and healthcare leaders debate staffing levels and service delivery, one major contributor to poor outcomes is being almost entirely overlooked: biomechanical complications during labour.

    Biomechanics refers to how the body moves and responds to physical forces. During pregnancy, it describes how the body adapts to the increasing demands of carrying a growing baby. During labour, it involves some of the most physically intense and complex actions the human body can perform, as it prepares for and facilitates the delivery of a baby.

    After analysing 87 studies from around the world, we discovered that not a single one had ever investigated the biomechanics of labour. None examined how women’s bodies actually move, adapt or respond during birth. All the research focused solely on pregnancy. And despite rising maternal deaths in the UK, not a single antenatal biomechanics study had been conducted here either.

    This isn’t just an academic oversight. Labour is biomechanically intense, involving force, posture, motion, muscle control and joint loading. Without evidence on how positions, manoeuvres or techniques affect the birthing body, maternity care relies largely on tradition, anecdotal evidence and outdated assumptions.

    A dangerous lack of diversity

    Some pregnancy-related biomechanical changes have been documented, but these vary widely from person to person. There is no “typical” pathway. Yet standard guidance assumes a one-size-fits-all model, often failing to account for these variations.

    Worse still, almost no studies included data on ethnicity. Only one mentioned participants’ ethnic background, but it did not analyse the data by group or explore any differences. That is a serious gap, given that anatomical features like pelvic shape, joint mobility, spinal alignment and culturally shaped movement patterns can vary across populations. These differences could significantly affect how women move and give birth, yet they remain completely overlooked.

    This is a serious problem, especially in the UK. Mothers and Babies: Reducing Risk through Audits and Confidential Enquiries across the UK (MBRRACE-UK) – the national programme that investigates maternal and infant deaths – along with other official reports, consistently show that Black and Asian women are nearly three times more likely to die during childbirth than white women. If all the biomechanical knowledge we have is based on white bodies, yet clinical guidance is applied universally, we may be missing important risks or needs. This lack of inclusive data could be contributing to the persistent racial disparities in maternal outcomes.

    We also found that even widely used techniques such as squatting or the McRoberts’ manoeuvre – a common emergency intervention – have never been biomechanically validated during labour. This means that no one has scientifically tested how these movements affect the body’s joints, muscles, and bones during actual childbirth. So, we don’t know if they help, hinder, or have no measurable impact on the birthing process.

    A handful of studies tested some of these positions on pregnant women in static, controlled conditions, but none included women in active labour. Those studies revealed no measurable advantage for any of the positions tested. Even the McRoberts’ manoeuvre did not significantly change pelvic or spinal alignment.

    That means decades of advice, clinical practice, and emergency response protocols may be based on theory and biomechanical guesswork, rather than evidence. And while these techniques are used every day – often in urgent situations – they have never been scientifically tested on women in active labour. So no clinical studies have examined how these interventions actually affect the birthing body in real time. We don’t know if they work as intended, or if they could be refined to improve safety.

    Tradition over science

    The consequences of this blind spot are not theoretical or a matter of academic curiosity. They’re about safety, dignity and fairness. Maternal and neonatal outcomes are getting worse. Stillbirths and deaths shortly after birth have increased. Behind these statistics are real families and real tragedies. Many of which may have been preventable.

    So why haven’t we filled this gap? Part of the reason is technical: traditional biomechanical systems are difficult to use in clinical settings. But that’s no excuse. New technologies are being developed all the time. If we have the capability to launch rockets and explore space, we should surely be able – and arguably obliged – to understand the basic biomechanics of human birth.

    The real barrier is structural neglect. Women were routinely excluded from clinical research until the 1990s, and even now, research into women’s health remains massively underfunded and overlooked. As a result, childbirth, one of the most common yet life-altering events in medicine, is still shaped by untested ideas.

    This isn’t just a research gap. It’s a failure of safety, equity and scientific responsibility. We are delivering babies in the dark, and those most at risk are often the ones who are left behind.

    The Conversation

    Dr Topalidou received a Pre-Application Support Fund Award from the National Institute for Health and Care Research Applied Research Collaboration North West Coast (NIHR ARC NWC) to support this work. The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR, NHS, or the Department of Health and Social Care.

    – ref. Why we still don’t understand what happens to women’s bodies during labour – https://theconversation.com/why-we-still-dont-understand-what-happens-to-womens-bodies-during-labour-261803

  • Jane Austen was a satirist – why isn’t she treated like one?

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam J Smith, Associate Professor in 18th-century Literature, York St John University

    From the pompous vanity of Sir Walter Elliot in Persuasion (1817), to the shallow reading habits of Isabella in Northanger Abbey (1817), few characters in the works of Jane Austen are spared the gentle satire of her famously ironic narrative voice. Similarly, some of her best remembered characters, like Elizabeth Bennet in Pride and Prejudice (1813), are more than willing to share a sarcastic retort or wry observation.

    And yet, Austen, like many other women writers of the period such as Frances Burney, Eliza Haywood and Mary Robinson, are almost always missing from histories of satire. This is less to do with whether their works were satirical – because they blatantly were – and more to do with our problematic understanding of satire.

    Satire, as writer Dustin Griffin states, is typically defined as a work designed to “attack vice or folly”, using “wit or riducule” and engaging “in exaggeration and some sort or fiction.”

    This article is part of a series commemorating the 250th anniversary of Jane Austen’s birth. Despite having published only six books, she is one of the best-known authors in history. These articles explore the legacy and life of this incredible writer.

    Austen, like so many women, used satire and humour to critique her situation in a patriarchal society and, in so doing, persistently challenged deeply ingrained assumptions about women’s status as the passive, subordinate property of men. As literary critic Rachel Brownstein memorably put it, women at the time experienced a constant doubleness that frequently became “the ironic self-awareness of a rational creature absurdly caught in a lady’s place”.

    And yet, when asked to name 18th-century satirists, it is so often the case that we are confronted with the same list of authors: Jonathan Swift, author of Gulliver’s Travels (1726), Alexander Pope, author of The Dunciad (1728), and sometimes Henry Fielding, author of Tom Jones (1749). Typically the thread isn’t then picked up again until a century later, when we are offered Charles Dickens (in works such as The Pickwick Papers (1837), William Makepeace Thackeray’s Vanity Fair (1848) and Anthony Trollope’s The Way We Live Now (1875).

    However, there are so many examples of brilliant satire written by women at the time.

    Take for instance, The Art of Ingeniously Tormenting (1753) by Jane Collier. A satirical conduct book which, rather than advising young women on how to become delicate, feminine creatures, instead gave them tips on how to torment their husbands. Why kill your spouse, it cheerfully asks, when it will be far more satisfying to “waste them by degrees”, effectively killing them slowly across a lifetime of nagging.

    There was also Eliza Haywood’s satirical periodical The Parrot (1746), which adopted the perspective of a green parrot in a cage, tired of being objectified and written off as a “pretty prattler”.

    Sarah Scott’s Millenium Hall (1782) is about a group of women deciding to abandon patriarchal society altogether and establish a women-only commune. It is full of withering observations. While Mary Robinson’s Walsingham (1797) exposes the many contradictions of 18th-century Britain’s sexist society by telling the story of a girl raised as a boy by parents anxious to have a male heir.

    Frances Burney and a page from Evelina
    Frances Burney’s Evelina skewered Bath’s fashionable society.
    Wikimedia

    As a girl, Austen loved Frances Burney’s Evelina (1778), a novel about a young woman who, upon arriving in Bath for the first time, cannot stop laughing at the utter absurdity of fashionable society. (Evelina is also a novel in which a monkey wearing a suit appears out of nowhere, goes berserk, and is never mentioned again. You should read it immediately.)

    Similarly, the anonymous novel The Woman of Colour (1808), sees a young heroine born in Jamaica, Olivia Fairfield, travelling to England to secure her inheritance only to discover the high society she’d been raised to admire is in fact barbarous and stupid. As both spectacle and spectator, Olivia becomes a powerful engine for satire.

    Even Charlotte Brontë deployed satire. Brontë was an admirer of William Makepeace Thackeray and dedicated the second edition of Jane Eyre (1847) to his famously satirical novel Vanity Fair (1848). As 19th-century literature expert Jo Smith has recently observed, Brontë also used her persona, Currer Bell, to enact satire across her career, even articulating her own theory of satire.

    The subtle barb instead of the violent attack

    That these women’s names don’t come up in lists of great satirists of the period is partly due to the availability of their writing. Many of the texts I’ve mentioned have only been recovered and made publicly available again over the last 50 years. But it is also to do with how we talk about satire.

    The purest definition of satire is that it performs a critique of something that the author finds to be ridiculous, stupid or dangerous, and uses some kind of distortion as part of this critique. This usually takes the form of exaggeration, but can also be inversion or allegory.

    However, you’ll notice that when people talk about satire they often describe the lash of the satirist’s whip, or the slash of the surgeon’s scalpel. Satire is talked about as biting, skewering and violent.

    Jane Austen and a page from the publication of Persuasion and Northanger Abbey.
    Jane Austen found much to skewer in Regency society and does so deftly in her books Persuasion and Northanger Abbey.
    Wikimedia

    The satirist, from the Roman poet Juvenal through to John Dryden and Jonathan Swift, is often imagined as a heroic aggressor, whose righteous indignation drives him to lash out at a fallen world. This is an image born of Renaissance theories of satire, and one slightly modified (but heavily promoted) during the endless, rarely objective, debates about what satire should be that dominated the 18th century.

    As a result, we end up with a definition of satire that is coded in masculine language. So many definitions, even today, talk about satire “attacking”, rather than “critiquing”. But in Austen, and the work of her female contemporaries, we see another kind of satire. The joy of so many of the quips and rejoinders issued by characters like Anne Elliot and Elizabeth Bennet is that often their targets don’t even realise they have been satirised, so subtle is the critique.

    Virginia Woolf said it best when called upon to describe Austen’s juvenilia, in particular her early novel Love and Freindship sic:

    What is this note, which never merges in the rest, which sounds distinctly and penetratingly all through the volume? It is the sound of laughter. The girl of 15 is laughing, in her corner, at the world.

    This article features references to books that have been included for editorial reasons, and contains links to bookshop.org. If you click on one of the links and go on to buy something from bookshop.org The Conversation UK may earn a commission.

    The Conversation

    Adam J Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Jane Austen was a satirist – why isn’t she treated like one? – https://theconversation.com/jane-austen-was-a-satirist-why-isnt-she-treated-like-one-262274

  • World Athletics’ mandatory genetic test for women athletes is misguided. I should know – I discovered the relevant gene in 1990

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Andrew Sinclair, Deputy Director of the Murdoch Childrens Research Institute, Murdoch Children’s Research Institute

    World Athletics president Sebastian Coe recently announced a new rule for women athletes, requiring mandatory genetic tests to verify their biological sex.

    This test must be done if athletes wish to compete in September’s World Athletics Championships in Tokyo.

    World Athletics has said all athletes competing as women must have an SRY gene test to identify whether a male Y chromosome is present.

    Any athlete whose test shows the presence of the SRY gene will be banned from competing in the women’s category in elite events.

    Coe said the decision was made to ensure “the integrity of women’s sport” with World Athletics asserting:

    The SRY gene is a reliable proxy for determining biological sex.

    I argue the science does not support this overly simplistic assertion.

    I should know, because I discovered the SRY gene on the human Y chromosome in 1990. For 35 years I have been researching it and other genes required for testis development.

    A brief primer on testes and ovary development

    If a human embryo has XY chromosomes, then at six weeks of development the SRY gene on the Y chromosome triggers a cascade of events involving some 30 different genes that lead to the formation of testes.

    In simplest terms, the testes then produce hormones including testosterone, leading to male development.

    However, if an embryo has XX chromosomes, a whole different group of genes come into play, ovaries form and the hormones produced result in a female.

    We know making testes or ovaries requires a complex network of many interacting genes and proteins.

    Some genes promote testis development while others promote ovary development.

    Other genes either suppress ovary formation or antagonise testis formation.

    Even once ovaries or testes are fully formed, we require other genes to maintain them. These genes don’t always function as expected, affecting the development of these organs.

    How does this relate to sex testing of elite women athletes?

    Changes or variants in the many genes that regulate the development of a testis or ovary can result in sex reversal or a non-functioning testis or ovary.

    What do I mean by this?

    If there is a change in the SRY gene so it does not function as usual, then a person can fail to develop testes and be biologically female. Yet they carry XY chromosomes and under the World Athletics tests they would be excluded from competition.

    Other XY individuals may have a functioning SRY gene but are female – with breasts and female genitalia, for example – but have internal testes.

    Importantly, the cells of these people are physically unable to respond to the testosterone produced by these testes. Yet, they would receive positive SRY tests and be excluded from competition.

    At the 1996 Olympic Games in Atlanta, eight of 3,387 women athletes had positive test results for a Y chromosome. Of these, seven were resistant to testosterone.

    The SRY test isn’t cut-and-dried

    World Athletics asserts the SRY gene is a reliable proxy for determining biological sex. But biological sex is much more complex, with chromosomal, gonadal (testis/ovary), hormonal and secondary sex characteristics all playing a role.

    Using SRY to establish biological sex is wrong because all it tells you is whether or not the gene is present.

    It does not tell you how SRY is functioning, whether a testis has formed, whether testosterone is produced and, if so, whether it can be used by the body.

    Other problems with the SRY testing process

    World Athletics is recommending all women athletes take a cheek swab or blood sample to test for the presence of SRY.

    Normally, the sample would be sent to a lab that would extract DNA and look for the presence of the SRY gene.

    This may be easy enough in wealthy countries, but what is going to happen in poorer nations without these facilities?

    It is worth noting these tests are sensitive. If a male lab technician conducts the test he can inadvertently contaminate it with a single skin cell and produce a false positive SRY result.

    No guidance is given on how to conduct the test to reduce the risk of false results.

    Nor does World Athletics recognise the impacts a positive test result would have on a person, which can be more profound than exclusion from sport alone.

    There was no mention from World Athletics that appropriate genetic counselling should be provided, which is considered necessary prior to genetic testing and challenging to access in many lower- and middle-income countries.

    I, along with many other experts, persuaded the International Olympic Committee to drop the use of SRY for sex testing for the 2000 Sydney Olympics.

    It is therefore very surprising that, 25 years later, there is a misguided effort to bring this test back.

    Given all the problems outlined above, the SRY gene should not be used to exclude women athletes from competition.

    The Conversation

    Andrew Sinclair receives funding from NHMRC

    – ref. World Athletics’ mandatory genetic test for women athletes is misguided. I should know – I discovered the relevant gene in 1990 – https://theconversation.com/world-athletics-mandatory-genetic-test-for-women-athletes-is-misguided-i-should-know-i-discovered-the-relevant-gene-in-1990-262367

  • Why do I feel so emotional when I listen to music from my teenage years?

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Sandra Garrido, NHMRC-ARC Dementia Research Development Fellow, Western Sydney University

    stockbusters/Getty Images

    Deep in your memory, your brain has created a playlist of music from your teenage years. Even though life has moved on, hearing that music now likely still brings up some really powerful emotions.

    Why?

    Well, as with anything to do with the brain and with emotions, it’s hard to say for sure. But it’s likely a bit to do with evolution, and a bit to do with some key neurological changes that occur in the teenage years.

    Imagine the world of a prehistoric teenager

    Changing hormones supercharge the limbic system, which is the emotional centre of the brain. Teens become emotionally sensitive and susceptible to intense mood swings.

    At the same time, we start to become less reliant on our parents.

    This increasing independence accelerates the need to forge close relationships with peers. We need to learn very quickly how to interpret the emotions of others, and develop strong memories of things that are safe or unsafe.

    Imagine the world of a prehistoric teenager. No longer a child wholly dependent on their parents, the adolescent feels an instinctive drive to explore new territory and strike out on their own.

    Away from their family’s protection, survival now hinges on bonds with peers.

    Going it alone is fraught with danger. Belonging to a group becomes a matter of life or death.

    The teen finds a new pack, which communicates crucial information to each other using body language or non-linguistic verbalisations. Variations in the voice pitch or the speed of speech signal urgency or excitement.

    Strong emotional reactions – the fear of danger, the thrill of a successful hunt, an intense connection with a potential mate – ensure memories about what to fear and what to seek are deeply carved into this teenage brain.

    The stronger the emotion, the deeper the memory.

    The brains of modern teens aren’t much different

    In today’s world, we seldom need to hunt for food or protect ourselves from predators trying to eat us. But modern teenage brains are still wired to react quickly and instinctively.

    Modern teens will still strike out away from the safety of the family circle, learning to navigate the treacherous world of adolescent relationships.

    As we all know – often from searingly painful personal experience – teenage brains are keenly attuned to non-linguistic social cues that signal acceptance or rejection by the pack.

    We are evolutionarily wired to lay down deep memories in our brains of events that have had a strong emotional impact on us.

    A young womand and a young man kiss.
    The teen years are a time of many firsts.
    Photo by cottonbro studio/Pexels

    So what’s this got to do with teen music tastes?

    Music can convey linguistic and non-linguistic emotion.

    Lyrics can tell a story that makes us feel heard and understood. They might signal we belong and are connected – with the artist, with other fans, and with broader human experiences such as love, lust or loneliness.

    The melody and beat communicate emotion too.

    In fact, some scholars believe the very reason music exists is related to the non-linguistic elements of speech that our prehistoric ancestors may have used to communicate before spoken language developed.

    Our brains may respond to these signals in music the way our prehistoric ancestors responded to expressions of urgency, excitement or peace from other members of the tribe.

    The way music communicates and evokes emotion is what makes it so important in life, particularly during the teenage years.

    Teenagers may spend several hours per day listening to music, particularly when going through periods of psychological distress.

    During this period – when emotional experiences and the learning that comes from them are so crucial to learning to survive – music becomes a powerful tool.

    It can act as a simulator for practising emotional skills, a guide to navigating emotional ups and downs and a key to finding connection and belonging.

    In other words, the music that we hear in our teenage years becomes closely intertwined with the strong emotions we experience at that time.

    An older man listens to music with a wistful look on his face.
    Listening to the music of one’s youth can be bittersweet.
    kupicoo/Getty Images

    A time of many firsts

    The music of your teens was likely the backdrop to your first kiss, the anthem you sang along to with friends, and a source of comfort when your heart was first broken.

    Evolution has programmed you to feel every moment of your teenage years profoundly, so you can learn important lessons about how to survive, become independent and connect with others.

    At the same time, music may be tapping into an ancient, pre-language part of our brains.

    The music that accompanied high-stakes moments of your youth is forever linked to the powerful emotions you experienced then, and deeply embedded in the brain.

    That is why, for the rest of our lives, those songs act as a kind of musical key to a neurological time capsule.

    The Conversation

    Sandra Garrido does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why do I feel so emotional when I listen to music from my teenage years? – https://theconversation.com/why-do-i-feel-so-emotional-when-i-listen-to-music-from-my-teenage-years-260819

  • Researchers watched 150 episodes of Bluey – they found it can teach kids about resilience for real life

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Bradley Smith, Senior Lecturer in Psychology, CQUniversity Australia

    Dad (Bandit), Mum (Chilli), Bluey and Bingo. Ludo Studios

    She’s six years old, lives in Brisbane and might just be one of the best resilience coaches on television.

    We’re talking about Bluey, the animated Aussie pup whose adventures have captured the hearts of families around the world.

    But as our new study reveals, Bluey isn’t just entertaining kids, she’s modelling how to to deal with life’s ups and downs.

    Why is resilience so important?

    Resilience isn’t just about “toughing it out”. It’s the ability to cope with challenges, adapt to setbacks and recover from difficulties. It’s a vital part of healthy child development.

    Research shows resilience helps children manage stress, regulate their emotions, build better relationships, and even perform better at school. Without it, children may be more vulnerable to anxiety, depression and poor coping skills later in life.

    Children today face growing mental health challenges, including around anxiety and emotional dysregulation. For example, a 2023 national resilience survey of almost 140,000 students found more than one in four primary and one in three secondary students reported high levels of psychological distress.

    Research shows the earlier we support resilience-building, the better. Early interventions help build healthy coping skills before negative patterns take hold.

    How TV can help

    Storytelling in films, books and TV can show children how to navigate challenges – not through lectures, but by modelling behaviours like emotional regulation, problem-solving and empathy.

    Animal characters in storytelling also offer valuable learning opportunities for children, who are naturally drawn to animals.

    Bluey first aired in 2018. It has since become Australia’s most successful children’s program, with billions of views worldwide.

    It is known for its realistic portrayal of young family life. Yet until now, no one had systematically examined how it – or any kid’s TV show – presents resilience on screen.

    So we watched all 150 Bluey episodes

    In our study, we analysed every episode of Bluey from seasons one to three. The 150 episodes added up to 18 hours of Bluey, Bingo, Chilli, Bandit and their friends.

    For each episode, we looked closely at the storyline, characters and themes, identifying moments where a character faced a challenge and showed a resilient response.

    To guide our analysis, we used the Grotberg Resilience Framework. This is a widely recognised model in psychology that breaks resilience into three key elements.

    1. I have: involving the support systems around a child, such as family, friends, and community role models they can rely on.

    2. I can: involving practical coping skills, like solving problems, managing emotions and asking for help when needed.

    3. I am: involving a child’s inner strengths like confidence, optimism, emotional regulation and a sense of self worth.

    ‘It’s out of our hands’

    Our research found nearly half of all episodes (73 out of 150) included a clear resilience message as either a primary or secondary theme.

    Nearly two-thirds of the resilience moments were facilitated by a parent — most often Bluey’s mum. This fits with the “I have” category of resilience, which highlights how children draw strength from caring adults when things get tough.

    For example in The Show (season two episode 19), Bingo accidentally drops a breakfast tray and bursts into tears. Mum gently models emotional coaching explaining her coping process: “I have a little cry, I pick myself up, dust myself off, and keep going.” Research shows that when caregivers model how to acknowledge distress, express feelings, and then recover with calm, children gradually learn to manage negative emotions effectively.

    Later in the episode, Bingo repeats those exact words when things go wrong again.

    ‘Well, that was fun’

    Bluey and her sister also frequently demonstrate practical coping skills on their own.

    In Keepy Uppy (season one, episode three), the final balloon in a game pops. The kids pause, take it in, and smile. “Well, that was fun,” they say.

    In a single moment, we see disappointment, emotional regulation, and reframing – the core of the “I can” category.

    Everyday moments, powerful messages

    We also see characters overcoming challenges with their own inner strength. In Seesaw (season two, episode 26) Pom Pom shows determination and self-confidence to get to the top of the seesaw and save her friends, in an example of “I am”. As she declares, “Pomeranians are a small but hardy breed”.

    We found Bluey touches on almost all of the core elements of resilience: trusting relationships, emotional communication, problem-solving, self-regulation, empathy and more.

    In Sheepdog (season three, episode 11), mum Chilli tells her family she needs “20 minutes” of alone time. Bluey is worried she’s done something wrong. Later, during play, Bluey gently echoes her mum’s words to a toy: “It’s hard work looking after you. I just need 20 minutes.”

    That simple moment models self-care and perspective-taking as well as empathy. For kids, learning that grown-ups need rest too is a powerful message.

    How to watch Bluey with your kids

    Of course, no screen can replace real relationships. But when parents watch shows like Bluey with their kids, they become powerful teaching tools.

    So the next time your child wants to watch an episode for the tenth time, don’t feel guilty – join them. When parents watch too, those moments become conversation starters. For example, “What do you think Bluey felt then?”, “Have you ever felt like that?” or “What would you do in that situation?”

    Talking about what kids see on screen can help them reflect, process, and build the skills they need to cope, adapt and grow.

    CQUniversity student Kelly Bohl and co-host of Bluey podcast Gotta Be Done Mary Bolling contributed to the original research on which this article is based.

    The Conversation

    Bradley Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Researchers watched 150 episodes of Bluey – they found it can teach kids about resilience for real life – https://theconversation.com/researchers-watched-150-episodes-of-bluey-they-found-it-can-teach-kids-about-resilience-for-real-life-262202

  • Trump’s new tariff regime has begun after months of chaos and uncertainty. But is his approach working?

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Conor O’Kane, Senior Lecturer in Economics, Bournemouth University

    The beginning of August marks the latest deadline for US president Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff policy. This era of chaos and uncertainty began on April 2 and the situation remaims fluid. With the deadline for partners to secure a deal with Washington now passed, it’s a good time to take a broader view and consider if Trump’s trade gamble is paying off.

    The objectives of the tariff policy include raising tax revenues, delivering lower prices for American consumers, and boosting American industry while creating manufacturing jobs. The president has also vowed to get better trade deals for the US to reduce its trade deficit and to face down China’s growing influence on the world stage.

    But recently the US Federal Reserve voted to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25% to 4.5%, despite pressure from Trump to lower them. In his monthly press briefing, Federal Reserve chair, Jerome Powell, said they were still in the early stages of understanding how the tariff policy would affect inflation, jobs and economic growth.

    On tariffs, Powell did say that revenues had increased substantially to US$30 billion (£22.9 billion) a month. However, only a small portion of the tariffs are being absorbed by overseas exporters, with most of the cost being borne by US import companies. In comments that will concern the Trump administration, the Fed said the cost of the tariffs was beginning to show up in consumer prices.

    The Fed expects inflation to increase to 3% by the end of the year, above its 2% target. US unemployment remains low, with Powell saying the economy is at or very close to full employment.

    While Powell’s decision to hold interest rates probably irritated Trump, economic theory suggests that lowering them with the US economic cycle at full employment would be likely to increase inflation and the cost of living for US consumers. A survey by Bloomberg economists suggests that US GDP growth forecasts are lower since April 2025, specifically because of its tariff policy.

    In terms of boosting US employment, the US administration can point to significant wins in the pharmaceutical sector. In July, British-Swedish drugmaker AstraZenica announced plans to spend US$50 billion expanding its US research and manufacturing facilities by 2030. The announcement follows a similar pledge from Swiss pharmaceuticals firm Roche in April to invest US$50 billion in the US over the next five years.

    Tougher times for US manufacturing

    The impact of tariffs on traditional US manufacturing industries is less positive. The Ford Motor Company has warned that its profits will see a sharp drop. This is largely down to a net tariff impact that the firm says will cost it US$2 billion this financial year. This is despite the company making nearly all of its vehicles in the US.

    Firms such as Ford are seeing an increase in tariff-related costs for imports. This dents their profits as well as dividends to shareholders.

    In recent months the US has announced major new trade agreements, including with the UK, Japan, South Korea and the EU. Talks on a trade deal with China continue. But rather than trade deals, these announcements should be thought of as frameworks for trade deals. No legally binding documents have been signed to date.



    Read more:
    European gloom over the Trump deal is misplaced. It’s probably the best the EU could have achieved

    It will take many months before a clear picture emerges of how these bilateral deals will affect the US trade deficit overall. Meanwhile, in Washington, a federal appeals court will hear a case from two companies that are suing Trump over the use of his International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977.

    VOS Selections Inc, a wine and spirits importer, and Plastic Services and Products, a pipe and fittings company, are arguing that the president has “no authority to issue across-the-board worldwide tariffs without congressional approval”.

    With so much in play, it is difficult to judge whether Trump’s tariff policy can be viewed as a success. Higher tariff revenues from imports as well as significant investments from the pharmaceutical industry can be seen as clear wins.

    But increasing consumer costs through rising inflation, as well as tariff costs hurting US manufacturers, are clear negatives. While several framework trade deals have been announced, the real devil will of course be in the detail.

    Perhaps the greatest impact of the tariff policy has been the uncertainty of this new approach to trade and diplomacy. The Trump administration views trade as a zero-sum game. If one side is winning, the other side must be losing.

    This view of international trade harks back to mercantilism, an economic system that predates capitalism. Adam Smith and David Riccardo, the founders of capitalist theory, advocated for free trade. They argued that if countries focused on what they were good at making, then both sides could benefit – a so called positive-sum game.

    This approach has dominated global trade since the post-war period. Since then, the US has become the largest and wealthiest economy in the world. By creating and the institutions of global trade (the IMF, World Bank and World Trade Organization), the US has advanced its interests – and American-based multinationals dominate, especially in areas such as technology.

    But China and others now threaten this US domination, and Trump is tearing up the economic rulebook. But economic theory clearly positions tariffs as the wrong policy path for the US to assert and further its economic interests in the medium to long term. That’s why Trump’s course of action remains such a gamble.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    The Conversation

    Conor O’Kane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s new tariff regime has begun after months of chaos and uncertainty. But is his approach working? – https://theconversation.com/trumps-new-tariff-regime-has-begun-after-months-of-chaos-and-uncertainty-but-is-his-approach-working-262448

  • What will it take for China to arrest its declining birth rate?

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ming Gao, Research Fellow of East Asia Studies, Lund University

    China’s central government introduced a childcare subsidy on July 28 that will provide families with 3,000 yuan (around £312) a year for each child under the age of three. The announcement came days after plans were unveiled to roll out free preschool education across the country.

    These developments mark a shift from previous years, when the government largely left the issue of addressing China’s declining birth rate to local authorities. Many of those efforts, which range from cash incentives to housing subsidies, have made little difference. By stepping in directly, Beijing has signalled that it sees the situation as urgent.

    Fewer Chinese women are choosing to have children, and more young people are delaying or opting out of marriage. This has contributed to a situation where China’s population shrank for a third consecutive year in 2024. An ageing population and shrinking workforce pose long-term challenges for China’s economic growth, as well as its healthcare and pension systems.

    Before the central government’s recent roll-out, regions in China had already been experimenting with policies to increase birth rates. These include one-time payouts for second or third children, monthly allowances and housing and job training subsidies.

    One of the most eye-catching local policies came from Hohhot, the capital city of Inner Mongolia province. In March 2025, the authorities there began offering families up to 100,000 yuan (£10,400) for having a second and third child, paid annually until the children turn ten.

    The authorities in some other cities, including eastern China’s Hangzhou, have offered childcare vouchers or subsidies for daycare. Policies like these have seen the number of births increase slightly in a few regions. But uptake is generally low and none have managed to change the national picture.

    There are several reasons why incentive-based policies have not moved the needle. First, the subsidies are generally small – often equivalent to just a few hundred US dollars. This barely makes a dent in the cost of raising a child in urban China.

    China ranks among the most expensive countries in the world for child-rearing, surpassing the US and Japan. In fact, a 2024 report by the Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute found that the average cost of raising a child in China until the age of 18 is 538,000 yuan (£59,275). This is more than 6.3 times as high as China’s GDP per capita.

    The burden is so widely felt that people in China jokingly refer to children as tunjinshou, which translates to “gold-devouring beasts”.

    Second, the incentives largely don’t address deeper issues. These include expensive housing, intense education pressures, childcare shortages and some workplaces that penalise women for taking time off. Many Chinese women fear being pushed out of their jobs simply for having kids.

    Some local authorities have attempted to tackle the structural realities that make having and raising children in China difficult, and have enjoyed some success. In Tianmen, for example, parents of a third child can claim US$16,500 (£12,500) off a new home.

    However, these policies are confined to specific districts and villages or are limited to select groups. Support remains fragmented and insufficient, while the prospects of scaling these piecemeal initiatives nationwide are slim.

    Third, gender inequality in China is still deeply entrenched. Women carry most of the childcare and housework burden, with parental leave policies reflecting that imbalance. While mothers are allowed between 128 to 158 days of maternity leave, fathers receive only a handful – varying slightly by province. Despite public calls for equal parental leave, major legal changes seem far off.

    These factors have together given rise to a situation where, as in east Asia more broadly, many young people in China simply are not interested in marrying or having children.

    According to one online survey from 2022, around 90% of respondents in China said they wouldn’t consider having more children even if they were offered an annual subsidy of 12,000 yuan (£1,250) – far more than the recently announced 3,000 yuan subsidy.

    Is Beijing too late?

    The new measures show that Beijing is taking China’s declining birth rate seriously. But it might be too late. Fertility decline is hard to reverse, with research showing that social norms are difficult to snap back once they shift away from having children.

    South Korea has spent decades offering its citizens generous subsidies, housing support and extended parental leave. Yet, despite a recent uptick, its birth rate has remained among the lowest in the world.

    Projections by the UN paint a stark picture. China’s population is expected to drop by 204 million people between 2024 and 2054. It could lose 786 million people by the end of the century, returning its population to levels last seen in the 1950s.

    Still, the recent announcements are significant. They are the first time the central government has directly used fiscal tools to encourage births, and reflect a consensus that lowering the cost of preschool education can help boost fertility. This sets a precedent and, if urgency keeps rising, the size and scope of support may increase as well.

    However, if China hopes to turn things around, it will need more than cash. Parenting must be made truly viable and even desirable. Alongside financial aid and free preschool, families need time and labour support.

    This also means confronting cultural expectations. Raising a child shouldn’t be seen as a woman’s job alone. A real cultural shift is needed – one that treats parenting as a shared responsibility.

    My generation, which was born under the one-child policy, grew up in a time where siblings were heavily fined. I was one of them. But, just as fines didn’t stop all of those who wanted more children, cash rewards will not easily convince the many who don’t.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    The Conversation

    Ming Gao receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. This research was produced with support from the Swedish Research Council grant “Moved Apart” (nr. 2022-01864). Ming Gao is a member of Lund University Profile Area: Human Rights.

    – ref. What will it take for China to arrest its declining birth rate? – https://theconversation.com/what-will-it-take-for-china-to-arrest-its-declining-birth-rate-261717

  • School’s out – but as young people paint, skateboard and play with their friends, they’re still learning

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ioannis Costas Batlle, Senior Lecturer in Education, University of Bath

    Evgeny Atamanenko/Shutterstock

    School holidays are underway across the UK. But while young people might be getting a break from the classroom and having a chance to spend more time on their hobbies, they are still learning – whether they’re playing video games, painting toy soldiers or out on their bike.

    Learning doesn’t just happen at school, college, or university. For Danish learning expert Knud Illeris, any process not caused by biological maturation (for instance, growing from a baby into a toddler) counts as learning. Learning is both inevitable and ubiquitous: it is part of being alive. We cannot “not learn”.

    We can chunk the enormity of what learning is into smaller digestible portions. These three portions (called learning contexts) are formal learning, non-formal learning and informal learning. We can think of them as an iceberg, with some parts visible and others hidden below the water.

    Iceberg illustration annotated with formal learning, non-formal learning and informal learning
    Learning iceberg.
    Runrun2/Shutterstock (edited)

    Different contexts

    Formal learning is the very tip of the iceberg. This aims to intentionally teach someone something. It is provided by an education or training organisation that will give you a certificate or diploma to show what you have learned. Schools, colleges and universities are examples of formal learning contexts.

    Non-formal learning extends beneath the iceberg’s tip but remains above the water level. Like formal learning, it is learning as the result of some kind of teaching. However, non-formal learning is not necessarily provided by an education organisation, nor is it necessarily recognised with a certificate or diploma. Music lessons, sports clubs, cooking classes, developing skills at work, or museum tours all count as non-formal learning.

    Beneath non-formal learning, shrouded under the sea, is the gargantuan base of the iceberg: informal learning. Unlike formal and non-formal learning, informal learning is generally unintentional, unplanned and unconscious. This could be absorbing social norms, such as how to greet someone you don’t know, or unexpectedly learning new words by listening to podcasts.

    It’s a widely accepted assumption among academics that most of the learning we do is informal. And it makes sense when you think about how much young people’s development is unconscious and unplanned. For example, while being taught formally in school classrooms, they simultaneously informally learn values such as what it means to be – and behave like – a “good student”.

    The iceberg illustrates why we often think of learning in a narrow way. We overvalue what is easily recognisable, such as the schooling that leads to an exam result. And we undervalue the much larger, but comparatively less visible remainder of the iceberg: non-formal and informal learning, such as through hobbies.

    Young people, in particular, may overvalue formal learning for two reasons. First, it is tangible. It features physical buildings – schools, colleges and universities – where young people go almost every day to learn. In turn, they aim to leave these buildings with qualifications that “prove” what they have learned.

    Second, even though across our lifespans we spend a tiny fraction in formal learning contexts compared to non-formal and informal ones, that tiny amount is disproportionately weighted towards our youth. Children and teenagers spend a huge amount of time being formally educated.

    Learning through hobbies

    To encourage young people to flourish as learners, we need to help them value non-formal and informal learning contexts. Hobbies are great for this. Hobbies are serious leisure activities which young people find interesting and fulfilling. They are serious because hobbies require perseverance to gain experience, a skillset and a knowledge base.

    Whenever someone intentionally teaches a young person something hobby-related, that counts as non-formal learning. For instance, a coach explaining how to bounce a basketball, a music teacher describing how to hold a drumstick, or a friend explaining the rules to a board game.

    Hobbies are equally infused with informal, unplanned and often unconscious learning. Playing video games inadvertently develops eye-hand coordination and cognitive function (storing and processing information). Stamp collecting can foster attention to detail. Skateboarding can improve resilience in the face of failure.

    Part of the reason young people’s non-formal and informal hobby-related learning above is so difficult to recognise is because it is rarely described as “learning”. Instead, they “play” music and videogames; they “do” skateboarding and drawing.

    Though play is one of the best ways young people learn, both young people and the adults in their lives may undervalue its impact. While adults may assume there is no relationship between play and learning, teenagers may perceive play as childish.

    Too many young people think they are “bad learners” because they struggle in formal learning. However, I bet they are extraordinary learners when it comes to their hobbies. We simply need to help them recognise the value of non-formal and informal learning.

    The Conversation

    Ioannis Costas Batlle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. School’s out – but as young people paint, skateboard and play with their friends, they’re still learning – https://theconversation.com/schools-out-but-as-young-people-paint-skateboard-and-play-with-their-friends-theyre-still-learning-261125

  • Climate change: new method can more accurately attribute environmental harm to individual polluters

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Shashi Kant Yadav, Lecturer, Northumbria University, Newcastle

    A small coastal community in Kivalina, Alaska sued several major oil and gas companies, including Exxon Mobil, in 2008. Local representatives argued that greenhouse gas emissions from these companies were contributing to the erosion of the coastline and causing irreversible damage to their village by heating the climate.

    But the US Court of Appeals dismissed the claim, citing a lack of evidence linking the corporate emissions with coastal erosion.

    In France, 2024, climate campaigners filed a criminal complaint against the major shareholders and the board of directors of TotalEnergies. They alleged that fossil fuels extracted by the company produced emissions that caused floods and storms that damaged property and irreversibly depleted biodiversity.

    Despite acknowledging damage related to climate change generally, the Parisian criminal court also dismissed the case. Again, it said there was insufficient evidence to link the activities of TotalEnergies and damage from extreme weather.

    Between 2008 and 2024, significant advances were made in climate science that enable us to understand how specific activities affect the climate, and contribute to wildfires, extreme heat and flash floods. The science linking these disasters to fossil fuel giants remains insufficient in the eyes of courts, however.

    A petrol station.
    TotalEnergies won its case in 2024.
    Tamer A Soliman/Shutterstock

    That’s because climate attribution science generally fails to meet the necessary standard of legal evidence to assign liability. For example, a recent advisory opinion published by the International Court of Justice acknowledged that states have a responsibility to address climate change, and that it is possible to establish a link between a state’s wrongful acts or omissions and the damage resulting from climate change. Despite this, claimants still sometimes fail to prove such a link in court.

    However, a new study has demonstrated a computer model that can reduce scientific uncertainty around linking emissions from a particular source to outcomes related to climate change. This end-to-end attribution model, as it is called, could strengthen legal claims against entities damaging the climate.

    Tracing emissions to damages

    The end-to-end attribution model uses a three-step process to assign liability for climate damage.

    First, using historical emissions data from online databases such as Carbon Major, the model simulates two scenarios: one with all historical emissions (the real world), and the other where the emissions from a particular company are excluded. The difference in emissions between these two scenarios is then paired with the concomitant increase in the global temperature, which shows how much warming can be directly attributed to that company.

    Using statistical methods, the model can then connect the relevant global temperature increase to changes in the intensity of heatwaves in a particular region. It could, for instance, calculate how much hotter the five hottest days of the year have become in a given year because of the company’s emissions.

    The model estimates the economic impact of these intensified heatwaves. It can do this using data on the consequences of reduced productivity and crop losses for growth, for example. It calculates how much money a region lost because of the heatwaves linked to the company’s emissions and gives a dollar value for the damages.

    By combining these three steps, the model traces the path from a company’s emissions to specific economic losses, theoretically making it possible to hold emitters financially accountable for climate damages.

    A satellite image of a hurricane.
    Economic losses from extreme weather are mounting.
    Triff/Shutterstock

    In doing so, the study estimated that emissions from Chevron alone caused between US$791 billion (£589 billion) and US$3.6 trillion (£2.7 trillion) in heat-related economic losses globally between 1991 and 2020, and that without emissions from 111 large oil, gas and coal producers (collectively referred to as “carbon majors”) such as ExxonMobil, BP, Saudi Aramco and Gazprom, the global economy would be US$28 trillion richer.

    The advantages for claimants

    Climate court cases in which claimants seek to assign liability to oil and gas companies are on the rise worldwide.

    About 230 lawsuits have been filed against fossil fuel giants and trade associations since 2015. More than two-thirds of these were filed between 2020 and 2024, and many are awaiting a final decision. For such cases, end-to-end attribution could be helpful.

    End-to-end attribution can assist claimants in meeting the commonly used “but for” test, by demonstrating that, but for a specific company’s emissions, certain climate-related damages would not have occurred. The method can also meet other liability tests. One is called proportional liability, and it attempts to quantify the extent to which a company’s emissions contributed to increased risk or the severity of damage. This flexibility strengthens the method’s applicability across different legal systems.

    The end-to-end attribution method enables claimants to connect global warming to local disasters, such as the 2021 Pacific Northwest “heat dome”. This is crucial, as climate litigation focused on single, high-impact events is usually more successful.

    It is well established that emissions from companies in the US and Europe have caused significant harm which is disproportionately suffered in the global south. End-to-end attribution strengthens the evidence base for such climate justice arguments in courtrooms.

    There are no established standards for how courts worldwide evaluate scientific evidence. Consequently, while the end-to-end attribution method can link fossil fuel companies and climate-related legal injuries, the courts, depending on differences between jurisdictions and the context of each case, may require higher thresholds to trigger criminal or civil liability.

    Additionally, fossil fuel companies often argue that any harm caused by their activities should be weighed against the benefits their products also provide. However, the benefits of fossil fuels should not exempt companies from climate-related liability, because climate change is an existential threat.

    End-to-end attribution provides a vital scientific tool for making fossil fuel companies accountable, and could reshape climate litigation globally.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    The Conversation

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Climate change: new method can more accurately attribute environmental harm to individual polluters – https://theconversation.com/climate-change-new-method-can-more-accurately-attribute-environmental-harm-to-individual-polluters-256002

  • Peptides: performance-boosting, anti-ageing drugs or dangerous snake oil?

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adam Taylor, Professor of Anatomy, Lancaster University

    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock.com

    For a growing number of middle-aged men, ageing no longer means surrendering to sagging skin, sore joints or slowing metabolism. Instead, it’s becoming a science experiment. The new frontier? Injectable peptides – experimental compounds that promise rapid recovery, fat loss and muscle gains with the ease of a twice-daily to weekly jab.

    Once confined to elite labs and obscure bodybuilding forums, these amino acid chains are now flooding wellness spaces, social media feeds and online marketplaces. Although they are marketed as “next-generation biohacks” and “research chemicals”, many peptides are not approved for human use and lack basic clinical testing.

    Still, their popularity is growing – fuelled by testimonials, influencer hype and the seductive promise of turning back time.

    But beneath the surface of glossy marketing and fitness fantasies lies a far more sobering truth: many of these substances operate in a medical grey zone, with unknown long-term risks, questionable manufacturing standards, and in some cases, life-threatening side-effects.

    Peptides aren’t entirely new to medicine. The first peptide drug – insulin – was isolated in 1921 and became commercially available in 1923. Today over 100 peptide medications are approved, including semaglutide – better known as Ozempic and Wegovy.

    But the compounds now circulating in fitness communities represent a very different category. They’re experimental substances that have shown promise in animal studies but have never undergone proper human trials.

    The ‘Wolverine stack’

    One such compound, first discovered in human gastric juice, that is attracting lots of attention is BPC-157. Early animal studies suggest it may help repair damaged tissue throughout the body.

    Researchers tested it on mice, rats, rabbits and dogs without finding serious side-effects. The compound appears to support healing of the tendons, teeth and digestive organs, including the stomach, intestines, liver and pancreas.

    Scientists don’t yet fully understand how BPC-157 works, but animal studies suggest it triggers several biological processes essential for healing. The compound appears to help cells move to damaged areas and encourages the growth of new blood vessels, bringing nutrients and oxygen to tissues in need of repair.

    Another compound gaining attention is TB500. It is a synthetic version of thymosin beta-4, a naturally occurring protein fragment that plays an important role in repairing and regenerating damaged cells and tissues.

    It also helps protect cells from further harm by reducing inflammation and defending against microbes. The combination of BPC-157 and TB500 has earned the nickname “the Wolverine stack”, named after the Marvel superhero famous for his rapid healing.

    Then there’s IGF-1 LR3, a modified version of a natural protein (IGF-1) linked to muscle growth. This synthetic compound was shown to increase muscle mass by 2.5 times in animal studies, though it has never been studied in humans.

    The limited human research that does exist for these compounds offers inconclusive results. For example, a study showed that over 90% of patients experienced reduced knee pain after BPC-157 injections. However, the study had no control group and several methodological issues, so the results should be viewed with caution.

    Hidden dangers

    Even though the early results seem exciting, these experimental compounds can be dangerous. Making them involves special chemicals called coupling agents, which can trigger serious allergic reactions, including anaphylaxis – a life-threatening condition.

    The health consequences extend well beyond allergic reactions. Long-term injection of performance-enhancing substances can lead to heart failure that can occur rapidly with little warning, as documented in recent medical case studies of young bodybuilders.

    Injection-related injuries pose another significant threat. “Compartment syndrome” can develop at injection sites in leg muscles, causing numbness, blood clots and muscle spasms that result in permanent loss of function.

    In severe cases, skin and underlying tissue can suffer necrosis (tissue death), requiring antibiotics or surgery to treat. More alarming still are reports of users contracting HIV, hepatitis B and C, and serious eye infections from contaminated injections.

    These compounds don’t just target muscles – they affect the entire body in ways scientists are only beginning to understand. Some interfere with natural insulin production, while others activate biological pathways that healthy cells use for growth and repair.

    The concern is that these same pathways are exploited by cancer cells. The VEGF pathway, which promotes blood vessel growth, is active in about half of all human cancers, including melanoma and ovarian cancer. Laboratory studies suggest that thymosin beta-4 may play a role in helping colorectal and pancreatic cancers spread.

    While there’s no direct evidence linking compounds like BPC-157 or TB500 to cancer, researchers emphasise that the long-term effects remain unknown because these substances have never undergone proper human trials. The World Anti-Doping Agency has banned these compounds, noting they lack approval from any health regulatory authority and are intended only as research tools.

    A growing problem

    Yet their use appears to be spreading rapidly. A 2014 study found that 8.2% of gym members used performance-enhancing drugs. By 2024, a comprehensive review suggested the figure could be as high as 29%. Perhaps most concerning: only 38% of users recognised the health risks involved.

    These experimental compounds represent a dangerous gamble with long-term health. Unlike approved drugs, they haven’t undergone the rigorous testing required to understand their safety profile in humans. While they may promise enhanced performance and healing, they deliver it at a cost that users may not fully understand until it’s too late.

    The appeal is understandable – who wouldn’t want faster healing and better muscle tone? But the reality is these substances remain experimental for good reason. Until proper human trials are conducted, users are essentially volunteering as test subjects in an uncontrolled experiment with their own bodies.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    The Conversation

    Adam Taylor does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Peptides: performance-boosting, anti-ageing drugs or dangerous snake oil? – https://theconversation.com/peptides-performance-boosting-anti-ageing-drugs-or-dangerous-snake-oil-259531

  • European gloom over the Trump deal is misplaced. It’s probably the best the EU could have achieved

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maha Rafi Atal, Adam Smith Senior Lecturer in Political Economy, School of Social and Political Sciences, University of Glasgow

    The trade deal between the US and the European Union, squeezed in days before the re-introduction of Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariffs, is reflective of the new politics of global trade. Faced with the threat of 30% baseline tariffs from Washington, as well as additional levies on specific sectors, the EU has secured a partial reprieve of a flat 15% tariff on all goods.

    Was this the best the bloc could have achieved? In the time available, it may well have been. The 15% rate is higher than the UK secured earlier this year, but it’s significantly below the level applied to China and Mexico, and on par with Japan.

    The EU has also managed a “zero-for-zero” tariffs deal on some hi-tech goods, notably semiconductors vital for products like phones and laptops. This is something the UK did not push for or secure in its own framework agreed with the US president.



    Read more:
    Donald Trump has reduced tariffs on British metals and cars, but how important is this trade deal? Experts react

    What’s more, EU leaders have argued that agreeing to the deal has security benefits in protecting dwindling US support for European defence. The urgency of Europe’s security concerns in Ukraine made these talks different from trade negotiations in the first Trump administration, when Europe could afford to be more aggressive.

    The biggest winners in this deal are Europe’s carmakers. The US has collapsed various sector-specific duties on goods like aircraft, cars and automotive parts into the 15% ceiling. This effectively reduces tariffs on EU-made cars (from 27.5%).

    American automakers, meanwhile, rely heavily on parts from Mexico and China – still subject to higher tariffs at the time of writing. This makes EU vehicles more competitive for US consumers than “American” cars that rely on overseas parts.

    Most importantly however, like the UK deal before it, the new EU agreement is a statement of understanding between the White House and the European Commission, rather than a formal treaty. A treaty would be subject to parliamentary ratification on both sides.

    But the semi-formal nature of this agreement allows both Trump and European leaders to portray the deal as a “win” by playing fast and loose with what’s actually in it.

    For example, the Trump administration will celebrate an EU commitment to buy US$250 billion (£189 billion) in US energy imports annually. Yet the concession holds no legal weight in the EU. The European Commission, which negotiated with Trump, does not buy any energy nor does it manage the power grid inside its 27 member states.

    The commission can encourage, but cannot compel, those states to buy American. (Indeed, it might want to do so anyway, since it helps it to pivot away from Russian gas). But ultimately, member states and businesses decide where their energy supply comes from, and they are not direct parties to the deal. Only a formal treaty ratified by the European parliament would compel them.

    No guarantees from Trump

    The informal nature of this agreement also allows EU member states to protest against what they see as capitulation to Trump’s demands without real consequence. After all, there is not yet a treaty text they would be required to vote on or implement.

    The Trump administration similarly imposed its sweeping tariff threats in early spring without a vote from Congress, and has been making ad hoc changes to the rates in the same way.

    On the one hand, this means European countries may not ultimately be required to implement some of the deal’s less savoury elements such as the energy purchases or lowering the bloc’s own tariffs on US goods.

    On the other hand, this means the Trump administration – notorious for abrupt changes of turn – can also renege at any time. In reality, there is little the EU can do about this. The question of leverage looms large. Trump’s longstanding antipathy towards the EU – seeing it less as an ally and more as a rival – meant that Brussels was never negotiating from a position of strength.

    The fact that the EU avoided the worst-case scenario, protected key sectors and secured other sector-specific advantages suggests a deal shaped not by triumph, but by containment of Trump. Since the deal was announced, the picture emerging from many European leaders has been one of gloom. True, the EU didn’t win – but it survived. And that, for now, is probably enough.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    The Conversation

    Maha Rafi Atal does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. European gloom over the Trump deal is misplaced. It’s probably the best the EU could have achieved – https://theconversation.com/european-gloom-over-the-trump-deal-is-misplaced-its-probably-the-best-the-eu-could-have-achieved-262369

  • Will the latest diplomatic moves to end the war in Gaza work?

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Este, Senior International Affairs Editor, Associate Editor, The Conversation

    This article was first published in The Conversation UK’s World Affairs Briefing email newsletter. Sign up to receive weekly analysis of the latest developments in international relations, direct to your inbox.

    It feels as if things are moving at completely different speeds in Gaza and in the outside world. From the embattled Gaza Strip the narrative is depressingly familiar. Dozens more Palestinian civilians have been killed in the past 24 hours as they try to get hold of scarce supplies of food.

    Aid agencies report that despite air drops of supplies and “humanitarian pauses” in the fighting, the amount of food getting through to the starving people of Gaza remains pitifully insufficient.

    Two more children are reported to have died of starvation, bringing the total number of hunger-related deaths to 159, according to Palestinian sources quoted by al-Jazeera.

    US envoy Steve Witkoff arrived in Jerusalem for more talks as the US president Donald Trump posted his latest bout of social media diplomacy on his TruthSocial site, a message which appears pretty faithful to the Netanyahu government’s position: “The fastest way to end the Humanitarian Crises in Gaza is for Hamas to SURRENDER AND RELEASE THE HOSTAGES!!”

    Both sides continue to reject the other side’s demands, bringing ceasefire negotiations to an effective standstill.

    In the outside world, meanwhile, events seem to be gathering pace. A “high-level conference” at the United Nations in New York brought together representatives of 17 states, the European Union and the Arab League, resulting in “a comprehensive and actionable framework for the implementation of the two-state solution and the achievement of peace and security for all”.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    What first catches the eye about this proposal, which was signed by Saudi Arabia,
    Qatar, Egypt and Jordan, is that it links a peace deal with the disarming and disbanding of Hamas. It also condemns the militant group’s savage attack on southern Israel on October 23 2023, which was the catalyst for the latest and arguably most grievous chapter of this eight-decade conflict. It’s the first time the Arab League has taken either of these positions.

    The New York declaration, as it has been dubbed, envisages the complete withdrawal of Israeli security forces from Gaza and an end to the displacement of Palestinians. Government will be the responsibility of the Palestinian Authority (PA), and a conference to be scheduled in Egypt will design a plan for the reconstruction of Gaza, much of which has been destroyed in the 20-month assault by the Israel Defense Forces.

    It is, writes Scott Lucas, a “bold initiative” which, “in theory could end the Israeli mass killing in Gaza, remove Hamas from power and begin the implementation of a process for a state of Palestine. The question is whether it has any chance of success.”

    Lucas, an expert in US and Middle East politics at the Clinton Institute of University College Dublin, is not particularly sanguine about the short-term prospects for a ceasefire and the alleviation of the desperate conditions for the people of Gaza. But what it represents more than anything else, is “yet another marker of Israel’s increasing isolation”.

    He points to recent announcements that France, the UK (subject to conditions) and Canada will recognise the state of Palestine at the UN general assembly in September. The prospect of normalisation between Israel and Arab states, at the top of the agenda a few short years ago, is now very unlikely. And in the US, which remains Israel’s staunchest ally, a Gallup poll recently found that public opinion is turning against Israel and its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.



    Read more:
    New peace plan increases pressure on Israel and US as momentum grows for Palestinian statehood

    But how important are the declarations by France, the UK and Canada of intent to potentially recognise Palestinian statehood, asks Malak Benslama-Dabdoub. As expert in international law at Royal Holloway University of London, who has focused on the question of Palestinian statelessness, Benslama-Dabdoub thinks that the French and British pledges bear closer examination.

    The French declaration was made on July 24 on Twitter by the president, Emmanuel Macron. Macron envisages a “demilitarised” state, something Benslama-Dabdoub sees as a serious problem, as it effectively denies the fundamental right of states to self-determination and would rob a future Palestinian state of the necessary right to self-defence.

    The declaration by the UK prime minister that Britain may also recognise Palestinian statehood in September is framed as a threat rather than a pledge. Unless Israel agrees to a ceasefire, allows the UN to recommence humanitarian efforts and engages in a long-term sustainable peace process, the UK will go ahead with recognising Palestine at the UN.

    You have to consider that the UK government’s statement said that the position has always been that “Palestinian statehood is the inalienable right of the Palestinian people”. So to frame this as a threat rather than a demand is arguably to deny that “inalienable right”.



    Read more:
    UK to recognise Palestinian statehood unless Israel agrees to ceasefire – here’s what that would mean

    Paul Rogers also sees serious problems with the pledges to recognise Palestinian statehood. Demands for Hamas to disarm and play no further role in Palestinian government he sees as a non-starter as is the thought of a demilitarised Palestine. “Neither plan has the slightest chance of getting off the ground.”

    Rogers, who has researched and written on the Middle East for more than 30 years, also thinks that without the full backing of the US there is very little chance that a peace plan could succeed.

    Rogers finds it hard to believe that Washington will change tack on the Palestinian question, “unless the US president somehow gets the idea that his own reputation is being damaged”. There’s always a chance of this. News from the Gaza Strip is relentlessly horrifying and the aforementioned polls suggest many voters are reassessing their views of the conflict. But Trump is heavily indebted for his re-election to the far-right Christian Zionist movement, who wield a great deal of power with the White House.

    The other thing that might influence the conflict is if enough of the IDF’s top brass recognise the futility of waging what has always been an unwinnable conflict. This, writes Rogers, is whispered about in Israel’s military circles and one eminent retired general, Itzhak Brik, has come out and said: “Hamas has defeated us.”

    These, writes Rogers, are currently the only routes to an end to the conflict.



    Read more:
    UK and France pledges won’t stop Netanyahu bombing Gaza – but Donald Trump or Israel’s military could

    Inside Trumpian diplomacy

    We mentioned earlier that the Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, has also pledged to recognise the state of Palestine in September. This was immediately greeted by Trump with the threat that he does so it will derail a trade deal with the US. Whether this will cut any ice with Carney, who had to make concessions to get the trade deal done in the first place, remains to be seen.

    But there’s a broader point here, writes Stefan Wolff. As Wolff reports, this week the foreign ministers of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda got together in Washington to sign a ceasefire deal, brokered by the US. Trump also claims to have successfully ended a conflict between India and Pakistan at the end of May and hostilities between Thailand and Cambodia earlier this month.

    Meanwhile his efforts to secure peace deals, or even a lasting ceasefire, in Gaza or Ukraine have been unsuccessful.

    Wolff considers why some countries respond to Trump’s diplomatic efforts while others don’t. There are a number of reasons, principally the US president’s ability to apply leverage through trade deals or sanctions and the differing complexity of the conflicts.

    He also points to the depleted resources of the US state department, Trump’s use of personal envoys with little foreign affairs experience and the US president’s insistence on making all the important decisions himself. He concludes: “The White House simply may not have the bandwidth for the level of engagement that would be necessary to get to a deal in Ukraine and the Middle East.”



    Read more:
    Why Donald Trump has stopped some conflicts but is failing with Ukraine and Gaza

    One US government department whose resources haven’t been depleted under Donald Trump is the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency, known as Ice. Part of the Department of Homeland Security, Ice has been responsible for identifying and detaining non-citizens and undocumented migrants.

    Their agents carry guns, wear masks and typically operate in plain clothes, although they often wear military kit. The agency received massive funding via Trump’s One Bzig Beautiful Bill Act earlier this month, which will allow the agency to recruit hundreds, if not thousands, of new agents. The number of arrests is increasing steadily, as is the disquiet their operations are prompting in many American cities, where opposition protests are also growing.

    Dafydd Townley, an expert in US politics at the University of Portsmouth, explains how Ice operates and where it sits in Donald Trump’s plan to deport millions of illegal migrants from the US.



    Read more:
    Masked and armed agents are arresting people on US streets as aggressive immigration enforcement ramps up

    World Affairs Briefing from The Conversation UK is available as a weekly email newsletter. Click here to get updates directly in your inbox.

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    – ref. Will the latest diplomatic moves to end the war in Gaza work? – https://theconversation.com/will-the-latest-diplomatic-moves-to-end-the-war-in-gaza-work-262380

  • Medieval skeletons reveal the lasting damage of childhood malnutrition – new study

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Julia Beaumont, Researcher in Biological Anthropology, University of Bradford

    Beneath churchyards in London and Lincolnshire lie the chemical echoes of famine, infection and survival preserved in the teeth of those who lived through some of the most catastrophic periods in English history.

    In a new study, my colleagues and I examined over 270 medieval skeletons to investigate how early-life malnutrition affected long-term health and life expectancy.

    We focused on people who lived through the devastating period surrounding the Black Death (1348-1350), which included years of famine during the little ice age and the great bovine pestilence (an epidemic that killed two-thirds of cattle in England and Wales). We found that the biological scars of childhood deprivation during this time left lasting marks on the body.

    These findings suggest that early nutritional stress, whether in the 14th century or today, can have consequences that endure well beyond childhood.

    Children’s teeth act like tiny time capsules. The hard layer inside each tooth, called dentine, sits beneath the enamel and forms while we’re growing up. Once formed, it stays unchanged for life, creating a permanent record of what we ate and experienced.

    As our teeth develop, they absorb different chemical versions (isotopes) of carbon and nitrogen from our food, and these get locked into the tooth structure. This means scientists can read the story of someone’s childhood diet by analysing their teeth.

    A method of measuring the chemical changes in sequential slices of the teeth is a recent advance used to identify dietary changes in past populations with greater accuracy.

    When children are starving, their bodies break down their fat stores and muscle to continue growing. This gives a different signature in the newly formed dentine than the isotopes from food. These signatures make centuries-old famines visible today, showing exactly how childhood trauma affected health in medieval times.

    We identified a distinctive pattern that had been seen before in victims of the great Irish famine. Normally, when people eat a typical diet, the levels of carbon and nitrogen in their teeth move in the same direction. For example, both might rise or fall together if someone eats more plants or animals. This is called “covariance” because the two markers vary together.

    But during starvation, nitrogen levels in the teeth rise while carbon levels stay the same or drop. This opposite movement – called “opposing covariance” – is like a red flag in the teeth that shows when a child was starving. These patterns helped us pinpoint the ages at which people experienced malnutrition.

    Lifelong legacy

    Children who survived this period reached adulthood during the plague years, and the effect on their growth was recorded in the chemical signals in their teeth. People with famine markers in their dentine had different mortality rates than those who lacked these markers.

    Children who are nutritionally deprived have poorer outcomes in later life: studies of modern children have suggested that children of low birth weight or who suffer stresses during the first 1,000 days of life have long-term effects on their health.

    For example, babies born small, a possible sign of nutritional stress, seem to be more prone to illnesses such as heart disease and diabetes in adulthood than the population at large. These characteristics can also be passed to future offspring through changes in how genes are switched on or off, known as “epigenetic effects” – which can endure for three generations.

    Epigenetics explained.

    In medieval England, early nutritional deprivation may have been beneficial during catastrophic times by producing adults of short stature and the capacity to store fat, but these people were much more likely to die after the age of 30 than their peers with healthy childhood dentine patterns.

    The patterns for childhood starvation increased in the decades leading up to the Black Death and declined after 1350. This suggests the pandemic may have indirectly improved living conditions by reducing population pressure and increasing access to food.

    The medieval teeth tell us something urgent about today. Right now, millions of children worldwide are experiencing the same nutritional crises that scarred those long-dead English villagers – whether from wars in Gaza and Ukraine or poverty in countless countries.

    Their bodies are writing the same chemical stories of survival into their growing bones and teeth, creating biological problems that will emerge decades later as heart disease, diabetes and early death.

    Our latest findings aren’t just historical curiosities; they’re an urgent warning that the children we fail to nourish today will carry those failures in their bodies for life and pass them on to their own children. The message from the medieval graves couldn’t be clearer: feed the children now or pay the price for generations.

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    Julia Beaumont receives funding from Arts and Humanities research council, British Academy/Leverhulme.

    – ref. Medieval skeletons reveal the lasting damage of childhood malnutrition – new study – https://theconversation.com/medieval-skeletons-reveal-the-lasting-damage-of-childhood-malnutrition-new-study-262081

  • Weight loss drug demand continues to grow in the UK – here’s what’s being done to keep supplies readily available

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Liz Breen, Professor of Health Service Operations, School of Pharmacy & Medical Sciences, University of Bradford

    Demand for weight loss jabs has surged in the UK. Mohammed_Al_Ali/ Shutterstock

    Over a fifth of people in the UK have tried to access a weight loss drug in the last year, according to a recent poll.

    Weight loss jabs such as Mounjaro (tirzepatide) and Wegovy (semaglutide) are very effective in managing obesity. Clinical trials have shown that some people lose up to 26% of their body weight while using these drugs.

    With this impact, it’s no wonder a growing number of people are seeking out these products – often buying them in private clinics or online. But with plans to expand access to these drugs through NHS prescriptions, there are concerns that supply may not meet demand – especially for those people in most need.

    In the UK, NHS prescriptions for weight loss jabs are only approved for people who meet strict eligibility requirements. For example, to qualify early for Mounjaro from your GP, you must have health problems due to your weight and a body mass index greater than 40 (adjusted for ethnicity). People assessed by the NHS and given prescriptions will also have access to additional support – such as advice about diet and physical activity.

    Weight loss drugs can be prescribed by specialist clinics and, increasingly, local GPs. But a lack of time and resources means even those who are eligible are left waiting. Consequently, people who can afford to do so are approaching private providers for access to these medicines – despite the potential risks to their health.

    There’s also evidence that people who aren’t clinically eligible for weight loss jabs prescribed by the NHS are purchasing them from online pharmacies.

    Supply issues

    Demand for weight loss jabs is about to grow, as the provision of Mounjaro via GPs is imminent, pending the creation of an infrastructure to support safe local prescribing.

    The number of monthly GP prescriptions in England for Mounjaro has already risen from under 3,000 in March 2024 (on introduction) to over 200,000 in May 2025. Mounjaro (also marketed in the US as Zepbound) is widely considered to be the best weight loss jab currently available and a great commercial success.

    GP prescriptions of all forms of semaglutide (the active ingredient in Wegovy) are more stable, at around 130,000 items per month (including generics and products to treat diabetes).

    While a number of GLP-1 drugs faced shortages last year (including Wegovy and Mounjaro), these shortages have now been resolved. Shortages were spurred by a spike in global demand for these drugs alongside stockpiling by private clinics to feed requests.

    Still, there were reports early this year that certain strengths of Mounjaro were difficult to access. The reasons for this are not clear, but may be due to the novelty of access to this new medication or a lack of access to alternatives.

    Around 220,000 people in England are due to be offered Mounjaro via the NHS over the next three years. However, it’s estimated that 3.4 million people in England could actually be eligible for Mounjaro.

    Two prescription boxes of Mounjaro 15mg.
    Mounjaro will initially be offered to 220,000 people on the NHS over the next three years.
    Cynthia A Jackson/ Shutterstock

    Wider NHS access to this drug is being phased to manage staff workload and ensure good support for patients. Phased rollout may also help to ensure there is enough supply for those who need to be prescribed one of these medications.

    Future access

    It’s likely that demand for these weight loss drugs will only continue to grow in the UK, so it’s important that supply is readily available.

    Regulatory agencies have taken some steps to tighten controls of online prescribing of weight loss drugs and prevent misuse. Registered online pharmacies must seek independent verification of key clinical information (such as from a GP or through a person’s medical records) instead of relying on questionnaires or phone calls.

    However, weight loss products remain easy to access for people with money and savvy search skills, but who may be clinically ineligible. The scale of demand from this group is difficult to quantify, but it’s clear more needs to be done to keep patients safe and manage demand.

    Several new weight loss drugs are undergoing trials in the UK. These drugs will work similarly to those already available but may be administered differently (such as an oral tablet). The trials for these and subsequent approvals will not only increase market competition, but also improve patient access and choice.

    Key patents for the manufacture of semaglutide are also due to expire in 2026 and 2031. Once a pharmaceutical product is outside of its patented time frame, other companies can be approved to manufacture it as a generic product.

    A generic product is approved on the basis that it works in the same manner and has equal benefits to the original product. The generics market allows new entrants and new versions of these very popular products onto the market.

    Generic products are usually less expensive and so are bought (where still clinically safe and effective) by the NHS. This change could provide greater access to weight loss medications and save the NHS and patients money in the long term.

    Generic semaglutide products will probably be available in the UK from 2032 but will be initially authorised to treat diabetes rather than weight loss. Still, this should have a positive impact on the availability of prescription drugs used for both diabetes and weight management.

    Generic liraglutide is already available on the NHS for the treatment of diabetes. The liraglutide brand Saxenda is also marketed for weight management. However, liraglutide is less effective than Wegovy or Mounjaro and requires daily injections.

    The number of monthly NHS prescriptions for liraglutide has fallen from over 40,000 in July 2020 to 1,000 in May 2025. This fall was most likely influenced by the discontinuation of the Victoza brand for type 2 diabetes in late 2024. Shortages of all types of GLP-1 drugs, which lasted until the end of 2024, may also have impacted demand for liraglutide.

    For now, NHS staff can report on known demand for these products to inform manufacturing quantities and procurement. What isn’t known is the future demand for online or private purchases of weight management drugs. It’s this “unknown” demand that may mean supply security is challenged and unsustainable.

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    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Weight loss drug demand continues to grow in the UK – here’s what’s being done to keep supplies readily available – https://theconversation.com/weight-loss-drug-demand-continues-to-grow-in-the-uk-heres-whats-being-done-to-keep-supplies-readily-available-262065

  • Flames to floods: how Europe’s devastating wildfires are fuelling its next climate crisis

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ioanna Stamataki, Senior Lecturer in Hydraulics and Water Engineering, University of Greenwich

    In recent years, I have all too often found myself passing over an active wildfire when flying from London to my family home in Greece during the summer months. The sky glows an eerie, apocalyptic red, and the scent of smoke fills the cabin. Silence falls as we become unwilling witnesses to a tragic spectacle.

    Now wildfires are again raging across the Mediterranean. But the flames themselves are only part of the story. As wildfires become more intense and frequent, they’re setting off a dangerous chain reaction – one that also includes a rising risk of devastating floods.

    Wildfire viewed from a plane
    Author’s photo from a plane landing in Athens last summer.
    Ioanna Stamataki

    In January 2024, Nasa reported that climate change is intensifying wildfire conditions, noting that the frequency of the most extreme wildfires had more than doubled over the past two decades. While some of this is driven by natural weather variability, human-induced warming is clearly playing a major role. Decades of rising temperatures combined with longer and more severe droughts have created ideal conditions for wildfires to ignite and spread.

    This year, another brutal Mediterranean wildfire season is unfolding right before our eyes, with numerous active wildfire fronts across the region. As of July 22 2025, 237,153 hectares have burned in the EU – an increase of nearly 78% from the same period last year. The number of fires rose by about 45%, and CO₂ emissions increased by 23% compared to 2024. These are terrifying statistics.

    Climate phenomena are closely interconnected

    The fires themselves are bad enough. But they’re also closely connected to other climate-related extremes, including floods.

    Natural hazards often trigger chain reactions, turning one disaster into many. In the case of floods, wildfires play a big role both through weather patterns and how the land responds to rain.

    On the weather side, higher temperatures lead to more extreme rainfall, as warmer air can hold more moisture and fuels stronger storms. Intense wildfires can sometimes get so hot they generate their own weather systems, like pyrocumulus clouds – towering storm clouds formed by heat, smoke and water vapour. These clouds can spark sudden, localised storms during or shortly after the fire.

    The damage doesn’t end when the flames die down. Satellite data shows that burned land can remain up to 10°C hotter for nearly a year, due to lost vegetation and damaged soil.

    As the world warms, the atmosphere is able to hold about 7% more moisture for every extra degree. Recent temperatures of 40°C or more in Greece suggest a capacity for more downpours and more flooding.

    Climate stripes chart for Greece
    Greece is getting hotter and hotter (Each stripe represents one year, with blue indicating cooler and red indicating warmer than the 1961-2010 average).
    Ed Hawkins / Show Your Stripes (Data: Berkeley Earth & ERA5-Land), CC BY-SA

    Wildfires also make the land itself more vulnerable to flooding. Burnt areas respond much faster to rain, as there is less vegetation to slow down the water. Wildfires also change the soil structure, often making it water-repellent. This means more water runs off the surface, erosion increases, and it takes less rain to trigger a flood.

    Under these conditions, a storm expected once every ten years can cause the sort of catastrophic flooding expected only every 100 to 200 years. Water moves much faster across scorched landscapes without plants to slow it down. Wildfires also leave behind a lot of debris, which can be swept up by fast-moving floodwaters.

    While EU-wide data on post-wildfire flood risk is still limited, various case studies from southern Europe offer strong evidence of the connection. In Spain’s Ebro River Basin, for example, research found that if emissions remain high and climate policy is limited, wildfires will increase the probability of high flood risk by 10%.

    Nature’s ability to regenerate is nothing short of magical, but recovering from a wildfire takes time. Burnt soil takes years to return to normal and, during that time, the risks of extreme rainfall are higher. Beyond the impact of wildfires on soil and water, it is important not to overlook the devastating loss of plant and animal species or even entire ecosystems, making the natural world less biodiverse and resilient.

    To reduce the frequency and severity of extreme events, we must focus on repairing climate damage. This means moving beyond isolated perspectives and adopting a multi-hazard approach that recognises how disasters are connected.

    Flooding after wildfires is just one example of how one crisis can trigger another. We need to recognise these cascading risks and focus on long-term resilience over short-term fixes.

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    The Conversation

    Ioanna Stamataki currently receives funding from the Leverhulme Trust and the Royal Society for ongoing flood research. Previous research has been supported by the EPSRC and the Newton Fund (via the British Council) for career development and international collaboration.

    – ref. Flames to floods: how Europe’s devastating wildfires are fuelling its next climate crisis – https://theconversation.com/flames-to-floods-how-europes-devastating-wildfires-are-fuelling-its-next-climate-crisis-262204