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Category: The Conversation

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Starmer’s move on Palestinian statehood is clever politics

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Brian Brivati, Visiting Professor of Contemporary History and Human Rights, Kingston University

    Keir Starmer has announced that the UK will recognise Palestinian statehood by September 2025 unless Israel meets certain conditions, marking a significant shift in UK policy.

    For decades, successive UK governments withheld recognition, insisting it could only come as part of a negotiated settlement between Israel and Palestine. This position, rooted in the Oslo accords of the 1990s and aligned with US policy, effectively gave Israel a veto over Palestinian statehood. As long as Israel refused to engage seriously in peace talks, the UK refrained from acting.

    Starmer has now broken with this precedent, potentially aligning the UK with 147 other countries. But the Israeli government must take what the UK calls “substantive steps” toward peace. These include agreeing to a ceasefire in Gaza, allowing full humanitarian access, explicitly rejecting any plans to annex West Bank territory, and returning to a credible peace process aimed at establishing a two-state solution.



    Read more:
    UK to recognise Palestinian statehood unless Israel agrees to ceasefire – here’s what that would mean

    If Israel meets these conditions, the UK would presumably withhold recognition until the “peace process” has been completed. Starmer made clear that Britain will assess Israeli compliance in September and reserves the right to proceed with recognition regardless of Israel’s response. The message was unambiguous: no one side will have a veto.

    This is more than just clever internal politics and party management. Anything that puts any pressure on Israel to move towards peace should be welcomed. But will it amount to much more than that?

    Starmer has faced criticism over the last few years for resisting recognising Palestine as a state. While Labour’s frontbench held the line for much of the past year, rank-and-file discontent has grown – and with it, the political risks.

    At the heart of Labour’s internal tensions lie two irreconcilable blocs. On one side are MPs and activists – both inside the party and expelled from it – who are vocally pro-Palestinian and have been outraged by the government’s failure to act. On the other side are members of the Labour right who continue to back Israel, oppose unilateral recognition of statehood and focus on the terrible crimes of Hamas but not the IDF campaign in Gaza.

    Between them sits a soft-centre majority, for whom foreign policy is not a defining issue. They are not ideologically committed to either side but have become increasingly uneasy with the escalating violence and the UK’s diplomatic inertia.

    As the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza deepens, public outrage in the UK has grown. Mass protests have put mounting pressure on the government to act. Within parliament, over 200 MPs, including many from Labour, signed a letter demanding immediate recognition of Palestine. Senior cabinet ministers reportedly pushed hard for the shift on electoral grounds, as well as principle.

    International dynamics have also played a crucial role. France’s announcement that it would recognise Palestine by September, becoming the first major western power to do so, created additional pressure. Spain, Ireland, Norway and several other European states have already taken the step. Britain chose to align itself with this emerging consensus.

    These pressures combined created a sense of urgency and political opportunity. Starmer’s government appears to be using the threat of recognition as leverage –pressuring Israel to return to negotiations and halt annexation plans.

    The calculation seems to be that Israel will either meet the UK’s conditions or face diplomatic consequences, including recognition of Palestine without its consent. There is also the possibility that Israel will simply ignore the UK and press on with its campaign for “Greater Israel”.

    Challenges ahead

    That is why, while this is a meaningful departure from the past, it is not without problems. Chief among them is the principle of conditionality itself. By making recognition contingent on Israeli behaviour, the UK risks reinforcing the very logic it claims to be rejecting – that Palestinian rights can be granted or withheld based on the actions of the occupying power.

    Recognition of statehood should not be used as a diplomatic carrot or stick. It is a matter of justice, not reward. Palestinians are entitled to self-determination under international law.

    There is also concern that the September deadline could become another missed opportunity. If Israel makes vague or symbolic gestures – such as issuing carefully worded statements or temporarily suspending one settlement expansion – will the UK delay recognition further, claiming that “progress” is being made?

    Palestinians have seen such tactics before. Recognition has been delayed for decades in the name of preserving leverage. But leverage for what?

    The Israeli government, dominated by ultra-nationalists and pro-annexation hardliners, is unlikely to satisfy the UK’s conditions in good faith. The risk is that the deadline becomes a mirage – always imminent, never reached.

    Recognition also comes as part of a proposed new peace plan. This will be supported by the UK, France and Germany, and it allows the government to say it is being consist with its policy that recognition is part of a peace plan.

    If, by some miracle, pressure works and Israel meets all the conditions, then the UK can claim that recognition has played a role in bringing Israel back to the negotiating table.

    But if recognition is then withheld, there will not be two equal actors at that table. The State of Palestine will not have been recognised by key international players, and a new round of western-run peace processes will begin. These do not have a good track record.

    If Israel fails to agree to a ceasefire and let aid into Gaza, then Starmer will be forced to go through with recognition.

    For now, he has defused the internal division in his party. It is clever politics, good party management – it remains to be seen if it is also statesmanship.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Brian Brivati is affiliated with Britain Palestine Project, a Scottish Charity that campaigns for equal rights, justice and security for Israelis and Palestiniains

    – ref. Starmer’s move on Palestinian statehood is clever politics – https://theconversation.com/starmers-move-on-palestinian-statehood-is-clever-politics-262239

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Why the Pacific tsunami was smaller than expected – a geologist explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alan Dykes, Associate Professor in Engineering Geology, Kingston University

    The earthquake near the east coast of the Kamchatka peninsula in Russia on July 30 2025 generated tsunami waves that have reached Hawaii and coastal areas of the US mainland. The earthquake’s magnitude of 8.8 is significant, potentially making it one of the largest quakes ever recorded.

    Countries around much of the Pacific, including in east Asia, North and South America, issued alerts and in some cases evacuation orders in anticipation of potentially devastating waves. Waves of up to four metres hit coastal towns in Kamchatka near where the earthquake struck, apparently causing severe damage in some areas.

    But in other places waves have been smaller than expected, including in Japan, which is much closer to Kamchatka than most of the Pacific rim. Many warnings have now been downgraded or lifted with relatively little damage. It seems that for the size of the earthquake, the tsunami has been rather smaller than might have been the case. To understand why, we can look to geology.

    The earthquake was associated with the Pacific tectonic plate, one of several major pieces of the Earth’s crust. This pushes north-west against the part of the North American plate that extends west into Russia, and is forced downwards beneath the Kamchatka peninsula in a process called subduction.

    The United States Geological Survey (USGS) says the average rate of convergence – a measure of plate movement – is around 80mm per year. This is one of the highest rates of relative movement at a plate boundary.

    But this movement tends to take place as an occasional sudden movement of several metres. In any earthquake of this type and size, the displacement may occur over a contact area between the two tectonic plates of slightly less than 400km by 150km, according to the USGS.

    The Earth’s crust is made of rock that is very hard and brittle at the small scale and near the surface. But over very large areas and depths, it can deform with slightly elastic behaviour. As the subducting slab – the Pacific plate – pushes forward and descends, the depth of the ocean floor may suddenly change.

    Nearer to the coastline, the crust of the overlying plate may be pushed upward as the other pushed underneath, or – as was the case off Sumatra in 2004 – the outer edge of the overlying plate may be dragged down somewhat before springing back a few metres.

    It is these near-instantaneous movements of the seabed that generate tsunami waves by displacing huge volumes of ocean water. For example, if the seabed rose just one metre across an area of 200 by 100km where the water is 1km deep, then the volume of water displaced would fill Wembley stadium to the roof 17.5 million times.

    A one-metre rise like this will then propagate away from the area of the uplift in all directions, interacting with normal wind-generated ocean waves, tides and the shape of the sea floor to produce a series of tsunami waves. In the open ocean, the tsunami wave would not be noticed by boats and ships, which is why a cruise ship in Hawaii was quickly moved out to sea.

    Waves sculpted by the seabed

    The tsunami waves travel across the deep ocean at up to 440 miles per hour, so they may be expected to reach any Pacific Ocean coastline within 24 hours. However, some of their energy will dissipate as they cross the ocean, so they will usually be less hazardous at the furthest coastlines away from the earthquake.

    The hazard arises from how the waves are modified as the seabed rises towards a shoreline. They will slow and, as a result, grow in height, creating a surge of water towards and then beyond the normal coastline.

    The Kamchatka earthquake was slightly deeper in the Earth’s crust (20.7km) than the Sumatran earthquake of 2004 and the Japanese earthquake of 2011. This will have resulted in somewhat less vertical displacement of the seabed, with the movement of that seabed being slightly less instantaneous. This is why we’ve seen tsunami warnings lifted some time before any tsunami waves would have arrived there.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Alan Dykes does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why the Pacific tsunami was smaller than expected – a geologist explains – https://theconversation.com/why-the-pacific-tsunami-was-smaller-than-expected-a-geologist-explains-262273

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  • MIL-OSI Analysis: As climate change hits, what might the British garden of the future look like?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adele Julier, Senior Lecturer in Ecology, University of Portsmouth

    Maria Evseyeva/Shutterstock

    Hosepipe bans in summer 2025 will mean many gardeners having to choose which of their plants to keep going with the watering can, and which to abandon. Are these temporary restrictions actually a sign we need to rethink British gardens altogether?

    Climate change will bring the United Kingdom warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers. Britain has seen warm periods before, such as in the last interglacial period 130,000 years ago, but the current speed of change is unprecedented. This will have many effects, but it will also change one of the core parts of British life: our gardens.

    Rather than fighting the inevitable and trying to keep growing the same plants we have always grown, how might we adapt what we grow and how we grow it?

    The first to go, tragically for some, may be the classic British lawn. Already this year across the country, large areas of grass are looking parched and brown in the face of a long drought. The traditional lawn has just a few species of grass and is unlikely to be very drought-resistant. You can maintain a grass lawn that is more tolerant of dry weather by using drought-resistant fescue species of grass, and keeping the lawn well aerated (that means putting small holes in it to allow air, water and nutrients to reach the grass roots). But it may still suffer periods in which it looks unhealthy.

    Swapping a lawn for a meadow can increase drought tolerance and decrease maintenance such as regular mowing and watering, because meadows only need to be cut once a year and don’t need as much water. Perhaps instead of lawns we can embrace No Mow May all year round, creating a greater diversity of plant and animal life in gardens.

    Wildflowers such as yarrow and common knapweed can be great for pollinators and the birds that feed on them. These plants are drought-tolerant too.

    As well as challenges in the face of a changing climate, there will be opportunities. Grape vines were grown in Britain in Roman times, and British wine production is once again a growing industry. Regular British gardeners could also grow a wider variety of grape vines, and even make their own wine. Warmer, drier summers could make plants such as citrus and olive trees easier to grow, with fruits more likely to ripen and less likely to be lost to frost in winter. Sunflowers, while they already grow here, could also thrive in the new conditions.

    There will be a shift in the best types of decorative plants for gardens, with those needing lots of water, such as hydrangeas, delphiniums and gentians, becoming difficult to grow. We could look to the Mediterranean for inspiration, and choose shrubs such as thyme and lavender, or climbers like passion flowers, that need less water. It is also possible to grow a drought-tolerant garden with plants that are native to Britain, such as species of Geranium and Sedum. Coastal plants such as sea kale and sea holly that grow in harsh, rocky conditions can also make great garden plants in a drier climate.

    Sea holly doesn’t mind our changing climate as much as other garden plants.
    olko1975/Shutterstock

    Finally, the way we garden will need to change. Setting up water storage systems, from simple water butts to larger, more complex systems that could include grey water harvesting (used but clean water from baths and washing up) or underground water storage, will help gardeners to make the most of storms by storing the rainwater for use during droughts. You can set up a dispersion system to recycle lightly used household water, such as from a dishwasher or shower.

    Soil health is important too, as soils with more organic matter are better at holding water. Composting food waste to add to soil would be a great way of helping to increase the organic content and make watering more efficient. This has the added value of avoiding peat composts. Peat comes from wetlands and it will eventually run out. Peat harvesting also releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, contributing to climate change.

    The next few decades will be challenging for gardeners. Britain will probably experience an increase in prolonged droughts and other extreme weather, as well as overall warming caused by climate change. Our gardens may cover a small proportion of land in the UK. But we can use them to experiment and develop sustainable ways of existing, growing not just new plants but also hope in the face of adversity.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Adele Julier does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. As climate change hits, what might the British garden of the future look like? – https://theconversation.com/as-climate-change-hits-what-might-the-british-garden-of-the-future-look-like-261608

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Windrush scandal: those left to apply for compensation without legal help missed out on tens of thousands of pounds

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jo Wilding, Lecturer in law, University of Sussex

    The Windrush scandal has been one of the biggest miscarriages of justice in Britain, affecting tens of thousands of people. The government set up a scheme in 2019 to award compensation to those who had been wronged by racist immigration legislation over decades, left unable to prove their immigration status.

    But in a new report, I have found that how much victims receive through the scheme has little to do with how they were wronged, and more to do with whether they can access a lawyer. Those who applied without legal support were offered tens of thousands of pounds less than when they appealed with legal representation.

    The research, produced with law reform charity Justice and Dechert LLP’s pro bono team, provides empirical evidence of precisely what lawyers do that makes a difference.

    Our research participants, who were claiming compensation over the Windrush scandal were offered, on average, £11,000 when applying to the scheme without a lawyer. But when applying for review with legal representation, the award was more than £83,000. One of our participants was refused any compensation when he applied alone, but eventually received £295,000 with the help of a lawyer.

    Why lawyers are needed

    We conducted an in-depth review of ten files where a claimant first applied for compensation without a lawyer, received a refusal or a low offer of compensation, and then applied with a lawyer for review of that decision.

    We reviewed another seven files from people who could never have claimed alone, because of street homelessness, dementia or serious health conditions.

    The team interviewed each lawyer and (where possible) the claimant, to identify exactly what a lawyer does that makes a difference.

    The Home Office insists lawyers are unnecessary because the scheme’s own caseworkers will help find evidence. But our findings suggest serious failings in those efforts. One of the main contributions of lawyers was expertise in finding decades-old evidence and demonstrating how it meets the standard of proof for the Windrush compensation scheme.

    One of our claimants applied for compensation for having been refused housing assistance (leaving her homeless) based on a misunderstanding of her immigration status. The Home Office caseworkers emailed her local council and asked whether there was a record of her being refused housing assistance 20 years earlier. The council replied that there was not. The caseworker treated that as evidence that she had never made an application.

    When a lawyer got involved, he asked the council to confirm how long they kept housing application records. The answer was 12 years, so there was never any prospect of evidence existing from 20 years ago. The lawyer then managed to track down her housing file with the housing solicitors who represented her.

    Lawyers knew how to request files from public bodies, understood the references to statutes in those files and, most importantly, were able to spot when key documents were missing.

    The lawyers in the cases we reviewed took detailed witness statements from claimants. Those made by claimants alone averaged 1.5 pages, whereas those made by lawyers were at least 15 pages, containing far more relevant detail showing how the claimant met the scheme criteria.

    Lawyers acted as a “buffer” between claimant and Home Office. Claimants told our research team that they felt the Home Office spoke to them with more respect once they had a lawyer. Often, claimants were ready to give up and accept the refusal because they were exhausted and frustrated with fighting the Home Office.

    The Windrush scandal has affected tens of thousands of people.
    James Ivor Wadlow/Shutterstock

    The findings are consistent with other peer-reviewed research exploring what lawyers or representatives add to cases in the family courts and the tribunals: a 15%-18% “representation premium” in chances of success. In some cases, this can be achieved through pre-hearing advice.

    All of our participants had a lawyer either through Law Centres funded by a charity, a university law clinic, or private law firms doing the work pro bono. Some firms also do the work on a no-win-no-fee basis, typically taking 25%-30% of the claimant’s damages but on occasion up to 67%. Given that it takes 32-103 hours to prepare the case, the lawyer’s fee may still underrepresent the work they did.

    Compensation schemes and legal support

    Recent reports have revealed serious problems with the compensation schemes for both the Post Office and the infected blood scandals. The chairs of the respective public inquiries, Sir Wyn Williams and Sir Brian Langstaff, criticised gaps in the provision of access to legal advice and recommended funded legal advice for all claimants.

    The Post Office Horizon IT scandal has four compensation schemes for different categories of victim. In each, claimants can choose between a fixed payment (£75,000) or an individual assessment of loss. In three of those schemes, funded legal advice is available to help claimants choose between those options. In the Horizon Shortfall Scheme, though, it is not available unless and until they reject the fixed payment and opt for individual assessment.

    The infected blood compensation scheme includes funded legal representation for “core” route claimants – those directly affected. But the inquiry report says it should also be available for claims by affected family members.

    Only the Windrush scheme has no provision at all for funded legal representation at any stage. All representation is either a matter of charity, or paid for from the damages, which may leave very little for the claimant.

    Yet the Windrush scheme is arguably the most complicated, with a 44-page claim form compared with just eight for the Horizon Shortfall Scheme. The infected blood claim form is largely completed by medical personnel. The Windrush scheme has complex eligibility requirements compared with the other schemes, and often demands an immigration lawyer’s expertise.

    As our research found, lawyers were able to advise Windrush claimants on whether the offer of compensation was fair or whether they should apply for review. Our empirical evidence, along with the reports, suggest all compensation schemes involving state harm to citizens should include free legal representation for claimants.

    In response to the report, a Home Office spokesperson told the Guardian: “Earlier this year, we launched a £1.5m advocacy support fund to provide dedicated help from trusted community organisations when victims are applying for compensation. However, we recognise there is more to be done, which is why ministers are continuing to engage with community groups on improvements to the compensation scheme, and will ask the new Windrush commissioner to recommend any further changes they believe are required.”

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Jo Wilding does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Windrush scandal: those left to apply for compensation without legal help missed out on tens of thousands of pounds – https://theconversation.com/windrush-scandal-those-left-to-apply-for-compensation-without-legal-help-missed-out-on-tens-of-thousands-of-pounds-261046

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  • MIL-OSI Analysis: The dirty truth about what’s in your socks: bacteria, fungi and whatever lives between your toes

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Primrose Freestone, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Microbiology, University of Leicester

    Marko Aliaksandr/Shutterstock

    Your feet are microbial hotspots. The area between your toes is packed with sweat glands, and when we wrap our feet in socks and shoes, we trap that moisture in a warm, humid cocoon that’s ideal for microbial growth. In fact, your feet may be home to a miniature rainforest of bacteria and fungi, with anywhere from 100 to 10 million microbial cells per square centimetre of skin surface.

    Not only do feet host a huge variety of microorganisms – up to 1,000 different species per person – but they also have a wider range of fungal species than any other part of the body. That means your feet aren’t just sweaty or smelly – they’re genuinely biodiverse.

    Because your feet are microbe-rich, your socks become prime real estate for these same bacteria and fungi. Studies show that socks harbour both harmless skin residents, like coagulase-negative staphylococci, and potentially dangerous pathogens, including Aspergillus, Staphylococcus, Candida, Histoplasma and Cryptococcus. These microbes thrive in the warm, moist spaces between your toes, feeding on sweat and dead skin cells.

    Their byproducts, such as volatile fatty acids and sulphur compounds, are what give sweaty feet, socks and shoes that notorious odour. It’s not the sweat itself that smells, but the microbial metabolism of that sweat. Perhaps unsurprisingly, smelly feet are so common the NHS has dedicated pages of advice on the issue.

    The sock microbiome isn’t just influenced by your feet – it also reflects your environment. Socks pick up microbes from every surface you walk on, including household floors, gym mats, locker rooms and even your garden. They act as microbial sponges, collecting bacteria and fungi from soil, water, pet hair and dander, and the general dust of everyday life. In one study, socks worn for just 12 hours had the highest bacterial and fungal counts of any clothing item tested.

    And those microbes don’t stay put. Anything living in your socks can transfer to your shoes, your floors, your bedding – and even your skin. In a hospital study, slipper socks worn by patients were found to carry floor microbes, including antibiotic-resistant pathogens, into hospital beds. It’s a reminder that foot hygiene isn’t just a personal issue – it can have broader implications for infection control and public health.

    Super-spreaders

    Socks can also play a key role in spreading fungal infections like Tinea pedis (better known as athlete’s foot), a highly contagious condition that primarily affects the toes but can spread to the heels, hands, or even the groin. The infection is caused by dermatophyte fungi, which love warm, damp environments – exactly the kind you find in sweaty socks and tight shoes.

    To prevent this, experts recommend avoiding walking barefoot in shared spaces like gyms and pools, not sharing socks, towels, or shoes, and practising good foot hygiene, which includes washing and drying thoroughly between the toes. Topical antifungal treatments are usually effective, but prevention is key.

    It’s also important to note that socks can retain fungal spores even after washing. So if you’ve had athlete’s foot, wearing the same pair again – even if it looks clean – could trigger reinfection.

    The safest approach is to wear fresh socks daily and allow your shoes to dry out completely between wears. Choose breathable fabrics and avoid footwear that traps heat or causes excessive sweating.

    How to wash your socks properly

    Most laundry advice focuses on preserving fabric, colour and shape – but when it comes to socks, hygiene matters more. Studies show that washing at typical domestic temperatures (30–40°C) may not be sufficient to kill bacteria and fungi. In fact, under-cleaned socks can act as infection vectors, especially in households with vulnerable people.

    To properly sanitise your socks:

    • turn them inside out before washing to expose the inner surface where most microbes accumulate

    • use an enzyme-based detergent, which helps break down sweat and skin debris

    • wash at 60°C when possible, as the higher temperature helps detach and kill microbes

    • steam iron your socks if you need to wash at lower temperatures – heat from ironing can destroy residual spores.

    Cotton socks tend to tolerate higher temperatures better than synthetic blends, making them a better option for those prone to fungal infections. Drying socks in direct sunlight can also help: UV light has known antimicrobial effects.

    The forensic power of sock microbiomes

    Your socks might say more about you than you realise. In a US murder investigation, forensic scientists used soil bacteria found on a suspect’s socks to link them to the burial site of a victim.

    The microbial profile of the socks closely matched that of the crime scene – suggesting the socks had picked up and preserved location-specific soil microbes. This emerging field of forensic microbiology shows how microbial signatures can offer valuable clues in legal contexts.

    It’s a reminder that the ecosystems we carry on our bodies – and in our clothing – are not only complex and revealing but also surprisingly durable. Whether it’s helping to solve crimes or fuelling a fungal outbreak, your socks are far more biologically active than they appear.

    So next time you peel off a sweaty pair at the end of the day, spare a thought for the microscopic universe you’ve been walking around in. And maybe, just maybe, opt for that 60-degree wash.

    Primrose Freestone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. The dirty truth about what’s in your socks: bacteria, fungi and whatever lives between your toes – https://theconversation.com/the-dirty-truth-about-whats-in-your-socks-bacteria-fungi-and-whatever-lives-between-your-toes-261580

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  • MIL-OSI Analysis: People smugglers adapt to attempts to shut them down – financial sanctions won’t stop the boats

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David Suber, Departmental Lecturer in Criminology, University of Oxford

    In the latest attempt to crack down on irregular migration, the UK government has announced a raft of international sanctions against people smugglers. The sanctions will use asset freezes, travel bans and other financial restrictions to go after businesses and individuals thought to be facilitating smuggling operations.

    The government has committed to treating irregular migration as a national security threat, to be tackled with tools drawn from the counter-terrorism playbook. But, given the supply and demand forces that drive the smuggling industry, sanctions may not be effective.

    Smuggling is, essentially, a service industry. Opportunistic entrepreneurs charge migrants a fee to enable them to cross borders they wouldn’t otherwise be able to.

    These operations rely on wide networks: suppliers of dinghies and vehicles, informal money transfer brokers, local guides skilled at avoiding detection. While the routes and logistics vary across regions, empirical research consistently shows that smuggling is usually low-skill and fragmented. It’s rarely the domain of organised, mafia-style cartels.

    This regime of sanctions and asset freezes adds a new tactic to a familiar policy toolbox. Previous Conservative governments and EU countries have treated smuggling as a form of organised crime that can only be defeated through security responses. They’ve invested in surveillance, border walls and policing at home and internationally. Evidence suggests this approach is not only ineffective – it can backfire.

    Why sanctions may miss the target

    Smugglers and migrants alike operate in highly hostile environments. Evading detection and minimising risk is essential. This has made migrant smuggling particularly adaptable to criminal justice responses.

    Take money transfers between migrants and smugglers. Smuggling fees are often handled through the informal “hawala” money transfer system. A migrant deposits funds with a broker in the departure country, who holds the money and issues a code. Only once the migrant has safely arrived at their destination is the code released to a second broker, who then pays the smuggler. Debts between hawala brokers are settled when future operations move money in the opposite direction.

    Hawala money transfers are legal in most countries. But as no funds cross borders directly, this type of informal banking lends itself well to transactions that are anonymous and untraceable. The UK’s new sanctions target hawala brokers involved in handling payments between smugglers and their clients. But, in the same way that the structures of smuggling groups have evolved and adapted in response to police or border enforcement, so will their systems to move money safely.

    Follow the money: the new sanctions take aim at the business of smuggling.
    Andrzej Rostek/Shutterstock

    On heavily policed borders such as those in the Balkans, small-scale smugglers, often migrants themselves, have formed more coordinated groups bonded by ethnicity or language. Many of the groups listed in the UK sanctions, such as the Kazawi and Tatwani groups, have been on Interpol’s radar for years.

    Even when key figures are arrested, these groups have demonstrated the ability to disband and regroup on a different border. Sometimes they go quiet while developing new strategies, only to resurface in the same areas, driven by unchanged demand in smuggling services. Hawala brokers hit by the new sanction regime are likely to close and restart operations under different names.

    How effective can UK sanctions be if the targets and their assets are not in the UK, and if their operations can quickly shift across borders and names? Unless other countries follow suit and enforce similar measures, these sanctions may amount to little more than politically symbolic.

    Supply and demand

    So long as migration policy focuses almost exclusively on “smashing the gangs” and targeting the supply side of irregular migration, smugglers and other entrepreneurs involved in facilitating it are likely to reinvent themselves and find new, more precarious ways to circumvent border restrictions.

    Unless implemented internationally, UK sanctions will do little to change this. But international counter-smuggling responses are highly dependant on the specific circumstances faced by the states involved.

    In Italy, right and left-leaning governments have pursued an anti-mafia approach to smuggling for years, with limited results. Earlier this year, Italian authorities arrested suspected trafficker Osama Elmasry Njeem, following a warrant by the International Criminal Court on charges of murder, rape and torture.

    They then released him and repatriated him to Libya, sparking a row with the ICC. Although Italy has made deals with with the Libyan government in Tripoli to stop irregular migrant boats, it appears there were concerns that his arrest could strain relations with Libyan counterparts and trigger a surge in boat arrivals from North Africa. This situation highlights the challenges that can arise with such tactics.

    The idea that cracking down on smugglers, through sanctions or criminal justice responses, will deter people from seeking their services is not supported by evidence. If anything, it increases the risks migrants must take, making journeys more dangerous but no less likely. Migration flows to Europe rise and fall in patterns driven far more by global instability and lack of legal alternatives than by changes in law enforcement.

    Including smugglers in a sanctions regime may create headlines, but it misses the bigger point: people smuggling exists because people need to move. It is a demand-led phenomenon, and it is the demand side – why people turn to smugglers in the first place – that remains largely unaddressed.

    To reduce the power and appeal of smugglers, governments need to open safe, legal pathways for migration. This would reduce reliance on illicit networks, protect vulnerable people and restore order to a system that is politically defined by routine crises.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    David Suber received funding from the UK’s Economic and Social Research Council for his PhD in 2020-2024.

    – ref. People smugglers adapt to attempts to shut them down – financial sanctions won’t stop the boats – https://theconversation.com/people-smugglers-adapt-to-attempts-to-shut-them-down-financial-sanctions-wont-stop-the-boats-261864

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Gradual v sudden collapse: what magnets teach us about climate tipping points

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By John Dearing, Emeritus Professor of Physical Geography, University of Southampton

    Andrey VP / shutterstock

    Some of Earth’s largest climate systems may collapse not with a bang, but with a whimper. Surprisingly, experiments with magnets are helping us understand how.

    We now widely accept that greenhouse gases and the way we use natural resources are putting enormous stress on the world’s climate and ecosystems. It’s also well known that even small increases in stress can push Earth systems, like rainforests, ice sheets or ocean currents, past tipping points, leading to major and often irreversible changes.

    But there’s a lot we still don’t know about tipping points. When might they happen? What will they look like? And what should we do about them?

    Some local tipping points have already been reached. For example, many lakes have abruptly shifted in the past few decades from clear water to slimy, algae-choked pools, usually in response to fertilisers running off nearby farmland.

    Smaller systems, like this pond, can very suddenly shift from one state to another.
    Janet J / shutterstock

    For larger systems, like the entire Amazon forest or the West Antarctic ice sheet, the longer timescales involved mean direct observation – and certainly experiments – are impossible.

    But we can look for clues elsewhere. In fact, we can now learn about tipping points from something much smaller and far more controllable: magnets.

    Magnets have tipping points too

    In our recent research, we used magnetic materials to mimic the behaviour of an ecosystem stressed by global warming. Just like Earth’s climate systems, magnets can tip from one stable state to another – flipping from positive to negative – when pushed hard enough.

    We found that magnets don’t all flip the same way. Some shift abruptly – a characteristic of many hard materials. Others shift smoothly and more easily – as commonly found with soft magnets.

    Whether a magnet collapses abruptly or smoothly is determined by its structure. As a general rule, hard materials are simple structures that absorb stress up to a point and then suddenly flip – much like a small, well-mixed lake that stays clear until one day, when enough fertiliser has leaked in, it turns green and slimy almost overnight.

    Soft magnets, on the other hand, are more complex inside. Different parts respond to stress at different rates. This is similar to a large forest, where some species can handle rising temperatures but others are less resilient.

    The result is a reorganisation. Some species die out, others take over, and the whole system gradually transitions into a different type of forest – or even into a new ecosystem like a grassland.

    Some Earth systems are more prone to abrupt collapse.
    Steve Allen / shutterstock

    The same principles may apply beyond biology. Ocean currents and ice sheets with their many varied and moving parts might also behave like soft magnets, reorganising gradually rather than collapsing in one sudden movement.

    Softer systems are easier to flip back

    Our experiments with magnets uncovered something else with implications for Earth’s climate systems and their tipping points.

    The softer a system is, the easier it is to reverse the change – but only if you act before the stress builds up. If the pressure has built up too much, even soft systems start behaving like hard ones, flipping suddenly and dramatically.

    We also found that what may look like a soft and complex system – a whole rainforest or ice sheet, for instance – can be made up of lots of smaller hard elements. Each of these elements has its own sensitivity to a specific level of stress. Zoom in far enough, and you’ll see many more abrupt tipping points at the level of a single lake or patch of trees.

    This matters because the speed of change is just as important as the amount. In magnets, the faster we applied stress, the more likely they were to tip suddenly. Climate systems seem to behave the same way: the faster we heat the world, the greater the risk of sudden collapse.

    If we see these big complex systems slowly shifting and think there’s still time to act – we may be wrong. Like the proverbial frogs in boiling water, we may not notice we have passed the point of no return until it is too late.

    This is why we must watch closely, especially at the local level, for any warning signs. A patch of wetland drying out or a small tract of forest dying back. These might seem like small changes, but they may signal a much larger decline is already underway.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    John Dearing is a member of the Green Party of England and Wales.

    Roy Thompson and Simon Willcock do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Gradual v sudden collapse: what magnets teach us about climate tipping points – https://theconversation.com/gradual-v-sudden-collapse-what-magnets-teach-us-about-climate-tipping-points-258606

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: How the UK’s cold weather payments need to change to help prevent people freezing in winter

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Thomas Longden, Senior Researcher, Urban Transformations Research Centre, Western Sydney University

    DimaBerlin/Shutterstock

    The UK government recently expanded the warm home discount by removing restrictions that had previously excluded many people who can’t always afford to heat their homes. Now, the payment of £150 will be received by 2.7 million more households than last winter.

    The UK government has also reversed its decision to limit winter fuel payments to only the poorest pensioners. This could benefit up to 9 million people.

    The UK government has two other mechanisms for reducing heating costs over winter. The warm home discount and winter fuel payment are both one-off payments that help people pay their heating bills. The cold weather payment aims to support people during spells of very cold weather.

    Recipients of specific means-tested benefits in England, Wales and Northern Ireland automatically receive £25 after cold weather occurs in their region. Another policy applies in Scotland, where some people get a single winter heating payment.

    While these changes to the winter fuel payment and warm home discount are welcome, the cold weather payment has long been seen as an outdated, old-fashioned scheme in need of change. For example, it is paid after cold weather happens. Our research indicates that it can be improved by changing this.

    The wide use of smart meters means that researchers like us can now produce data-driven studies that improve our understanding of energy use and expenditure during cold weather. Our recent studies of prepayment meter customers’ energy use indicate ways to improve the cold weather payments.

    Analysis of electricity and gas smart-meter data from 11,500 Utilita Energy prepayment customers showed that 63% of households self-disconnected from energy supply at least once a year. In this study, published in Energy Research & Social Science, we found that more homes self-disconnected from gas during cold periods than at other times. There was no evidence to show that the cold weather payment as presently designed reduced this risk.

    Also using smart meter data from energy company Utilita Energy, a recent study published in the journal Energy Economics shows that prepayment gas customers in regions with high fuel poverty tend to struggle at temperatures below −4°C. Below this temperature, prepayment gas customers need to top up more often and with higher amounts. People using prepayment tend to top-up their credit in advance of cold weather.

    Cold weather payments could be sent directly to customers with smart meters.
    Daisy Daisy/Shutterstock

    In colder weather, more people use emergency credit and disconnect from power more often. Emergency credit is provided by the utility as a short-term loan. Self-disconnections occur when the household has no credit left and they have no energy supply.

    The government’s payment is triggered when the average temperature falls below 0°C for seven consecutive days. As this metric is not reported by news media or meteorology services, it’s hard to know when the cold weather payment will be received. The easiest way to find out if a payment will be made, after cold weather, requires people to enter their postcode at a Department for Work and Pensions website.

    If people are unsure if severe weather is forecast, they may not increase their top-up in advance. They may, however, self-ration or limit energy use to save money.

    The cold weather payment is only paid once even when there are multiple periods of cold. This “overlap penalty” severely affects those living in northern England and particularly Yorkshire, which is a colder region where cold weather spells are more common.

    Cause for reform

    The payment should be made in advance of cold weather, and utility companies could pay it directly to customers who have smart meters. Credits could be applied for those using other types of meters. This is likely to reduce self-disconnections and self-rationing during very cold nights.

    Payments should be triggered by the minimum night-time temperature. The temperature measure used at present is confusing and the money is not paid until up to two weeks after extremely cold weather, which is problematic for those on tight budgets.

    To better match the support needed during cold weather, the amount paid should be increased to £10 a day for every day that minimum temperatures are forecast to be below −4°C. This would improve energy security for people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland.

    A policy will only be effective when it is clearly communicated and understood by those it applies to. To prevent self-rationing, people need to know that payment support has arrived, otherwise they may hesitate to turn up the heating on the coldest days of winter, with all the risks that involves.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Thomas Longden has recently received funding from Energy Consumers Australia and Original Power – a community-focused, Aboriginal organisation. He is a member of the ACT Climate Change Council and the NSW branch of the Economic Society of Australia.

    Brenda Boardman is affiliated in the UK with the End Fuel Poverty Coalition and the Labour Party. Her research on pre-payment meter households was co-funded by Utilita Giving.

    Tina Fawcett currently receives funding from UKRI. Her research on pre-payment meter households was co-funded by Utilita Giving.

    – ref. How the UK’s cold weather payments need to change to help prevent people freezing in winter – https://theconversation.com/how-the-uks-cold-weather-payments-need-to-change-to-help-prevent-people-freezing-in-winter-259339

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Many tongues, one people: the debate over linguistic diversity in India

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sudhansu Bala Das, Postdoctoral researcher in Linguistics, University of Galway

    India is a home to numerous ancient and linguistically rich languages across its many regions. In a single home, a young person may speak, for example, Odia (the language spoken in the eastern state of Odisha) with their grandparents, switch to English for homework, and enjoy listening to Hindi songs on YouTube.

    Far from being confusing, this coexistence is necessary and natural. It’s a hallmark of a nation where language diversity is embraced as a strength rather than being a barrier to be overcome.

    India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, reflected this attitude in February this year when he remarked that there had “never been any animosity among Indian languages”. He was speaking at a major literary conference in the state of Maharashtra, where the vast majority of people, 84 million out of a population of 112 million, speak Marathi as a first language with Hindi a distant second.

    “[Indian languages] have always influenced and enriched each other, he said. “It is our social responsibility to distance ourselves from such misconceptions and embrace and enrich all languages.” His remarks reinforced a broader message: that linguistic diversity is not a barrier, but a shared cultural strength that binds India together.

    But language can also be a politically divisive issue in such a diverse country. And Modi and members of his government have been criticised for words and actions seen as trying to shape the use of Hindi, English and other languages within India. Because of the country’s linguistic complexity, the situation is always more complicated to navigate than it might first appear.

    India has a total of around 19,500 languages or dialects that are spoken as mother tongues, according to the 2011 census. Of those, 22 languages are recognised as official under the Indian constitution.

    The 2011 census found that 44% of Indians, about 528 million people, speak Hindi as their first language (meaning what is spoken at home). Similarly, around 57% of people use it as a second or third language.

    That means Hindi has a broad presence across regions, but it exists alongside many other languages with equal value, including Marathi, Bengali (97 million), Telugu (81 million), Tamil (69 million) and Meitei (1.8 million).

    First, second and third language speakers in India, according to the 2011 census.
    2011 Indian census, CC BY-NC-SA

    At the national level, India has two official languages: Hindi and English. Hindi is used for communication within the central government, while English is widely used in legal, administrative and international affairs. Each state can choose its own official language(s) for state-level governance. For example, Tamil Nadu uses Tamil, Maharashtra uses Marathi, and so on.

    But in daily life, people often switch between languages depending on where they are and who they are speaking to, at home, at work, or in public spaces. According to the 2011 census, nearly one in four Indians said they could speak at least two languages, and over 7% said they could speak three.

    India introduced a three-language formula in education the 1960s. This policy guideline encouraged students to learn three languages: their regional mother tongue, Hindi (if it is not already their first language) and English. This was intended to produce a flexible and inclusive approach across different states.

    In 2020, the Modi government introduced a new national education policy that gave states more flexibility to pick which two Indian languages should be taught alongside English, but made the recommendation compulsory in all states. This has led to a backlash in several states because some fear it effectively introduces Hindi teaching by the backdoor and will dilute the use of other languages.

    There is also considerable debate in India about the role of English, which about 10.6% of Indians speak to some degree but some believe is a relic of colonial rule. Modi himself has suggested this is the case and has taken action to reduce the official use of English, for example in medical schools.

    However, he has also acknowledged the importance of English, particularly in global communication, and spoken of the value all Indian languages bring to the country’s unity and progress. “It is our duty to embrace all languages,” he told the audience in Maharashtra, adding that Indian languages, including English, “have always enriched each other and formed the foundation of our unity”.

    Many see the language as a link between the many linguistic communities of India. Others see it is a tool for social mobility, especially for lower castes. Some have even accused the government of wanting to discourage English in order to maintain social privileges and promote the dominance of Hindi.

    On the other hand, the 2020 national education policy mandates the teaching of English. It recommends bilingual textbooks in English and local languages, and that English should be taught “wherever possible” alongside mother tongues in primary education.

    The government is also taking steps to make the digital world more inclusive to people, whatever their language. Launched by Modi in 2022, the Bhashini project is a national AI initiative supporting speech-to-text, real-time translation and digital accessibility in all 22 official languages. This aims to make digital platforms and public services more inclusive, especially for rural and remote communities.

    As poet and Nobel laureate Rabindranath Tagore once wrote: “If God had so wished, he would have made all Indians speak with one language … the unity of India has been and shall always be a unity in diversity.”

    In India, children today grow up speaking their mother tongue, with many learning Hindi to communicate across regions, and gaining English skills for global connections. India’s future does not depend on choosing one language over another, but on enabling them to flourish side by side.

    There’s a Chinese proverb: “To learn a language is to have one more window from which to look at the world.” With thousands of such windows, India’s future is rooted in both unity and diversity.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Sudhansu Bala Das does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Many tongues, one people: the debate over linguistic diversity in India – https://theconversation.com/many-tongues-one-people-the-debate-over-linguistic-diversity-in-india-261308

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Hormone-free male contraceptive pill passes first safety test

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Susan Walker, Associate Professor in Contraception, Reproductive and Sexual Health, Anglia Ruskin University

    The male contraceptive pill just completed phase 1 trials. Pixel-Shot/ Shutterstock

    A potential new male contraceptive drug has just undergone its first tests in human volunteers. The results give the first indication that the drug, which does not use artificial hormones or affect testosterone production by the testes, may be safe in humans.

    While previous attempts have been made to develop a male contraceptive in the past, these largely failed to pass clinical trials due to their unacceptable side-effects. But this newest contraceptive works differently from past attempts, which means it doesn’t require surgery and is much less likely to cause hormonal side-effects – problems that have helped stop previous attempts from reaching the market.

    The study showed the drug was well tolerated in a small group of healthy young men and did not appear to cause any serious side-effects at the doses used. Further research will be needed to demonstrate precisely how effective it is as a contraceptive.

    The new method uses a specially-designed chemical known as YCT-529 to target a specific cell receptor in the testes called retinoic acid receptor–alpha.

    Similar, but less specific compounds, had been shown to reduce sperm production in humans previously. But these compounds also had unwanted side-effects – such as feeling ill when drinking alcohol, altering salt levels in the bloodstream and not being fully reversible in all men. This made them unsuitable for contraceptive use.

    But in animal studies, YCT-529 was shown to produce fully reversible, temporary infertility without any significant side-effects. A study in mice also found that those who went on to father babies after stopping the drug produce normal, healthy offspring.

    Based on these results, the drug then entered into phase one trials in humans. This is the first stage of human testing, where a small group of healthy volunteers are recruited to test safety, tolerability and possible side-effects.

    This small trial involved 16 male volunteers who took the drug twice at increasing doses – either 10mg to 30mg or 90mg to 180mg. Some men took placebo pills for comparison.

    The participants were monitored for 15 days for any effects on normal hormone levels, inflammation (signs of cell damage), kidney and liver function, abnormal heart rhythms, sexual desire and mood.

    No changes were detected in the natural hormones in the body. There were also no lasting effects on liver and kidney function and no signs of cell damage. No dangerous abnormalities of heart rhythm were detected, and the participants reported no changes in mood or sexual desire.

    However, participants only took two doses of the drug and were only followed up for 15 days. The authors say in the paper that a larger phase two trial is underway which will test the drug in a greater number of men.

    This will then be followed by phase three trials in hundreds of men where the effectiveness, reversibility and side-effects of longer term use of the drug will be assessed. These are the hurdles which have prevented other approaches from being made widely available.

    Why past male contraceptives have failed

    At present there are no commercially available contraceptive methods for men that are not only safe and effective at preventing pregnancy, but which also allow sperm production to be turned off and on again at will.

    While condoms have few side-effects and are used at will, they have a relatively high failure rate (resulting in pregnancy around 12%-18% of the time with typical use).

    A vasectomy, which severs the tube connecting the sperm-producing testes to the rest of the male reproductive organs, is very effective (more than 99%) and safe – but it’s not easily reversible and requires a minor operation.

    There have been previous attempts (and some ongoing) at producing a reversible method of contraception for men. Some have proven to be effective at stopping sperm production or preventing sperm from exiting the male reproductive tract. However, they haven’t moved to the stage of commercial production, often because of unwanted side-effects.

    If the pill proves to be effective in phase 3 trials, it would give men another contraceptive option.
    TanyaJoy/ Shutterstock

    Most of these attempts used one of two main approaches to prevent pregnancy.

    One method involves injecting a substance into the vas deferens (a tube leading from the testes to the urethra). This substance filters out and damages sperm during ejaculation. This substance can be flushed out through a minor procedure if the man wishes to become fertile again.

    The drawback of this method is that it requires a minor surgical procedure (an injection into the scrotum) and that the man has to have a further procedure to reverse its effects.

    The second route involves stopping sperm production altogether by lowering the hormones that cause sperm to be made in the testes.

    The most successful of these trials used an injectable progestogen (a synthetic version of the sex hormone progesterone). This injectable signalled the brain to stop producing follicular stimulating hormone (FSH) and lutenising hormone (LH), which normally signal the testes to produce sperm and testosterone.

    However, suppressing LH also turned off the testosterone in the testes that is needed for normal, healthy function in men. To counteract the loss of testosterone, this contraceptive approach required men to take an “add back” testosterone – either as a tablet or a gel applied to the skin.

    But a major trial testing this method was stopped early because of the hormonal side-effects participants experienced, including mood swings, acne and changes to sex drive.

    There’s a long way to go before the new drug can be considered suitable for use as a male contraceptive. But this new approach shows a lot of promise because it avoids upsetting hormonal balance and can be taken orally – rather than requiring an invasive procedure.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Susan Walker has previously received funding from Bayer PLC who manufacture contraceptive devices.

    – ref. Hormone-free male contraceptive pill passes first safety test – https://theconversation.com/hormone-free-male-contraceptive-pill-passes-first-safety-test-262083

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Kemi Badenoch says she wants to be Britain’s Javier Milei – but is the Argentinian president a model to follow?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Sam Halvorsen, Reader in Human Geography, Queen Mary University of London

    When UK Conservative party head Kemi Badenoch recently declared that she aspires to be Britain’s Milei, she aligned herself with one of the world’s most radical and controversial leaders.

    Javier Milei, Argentina’s self-styled “anarcho-capitalist” president, has gained global notoriety since his election in December 2023 for wielding a chainsaw at rallies, promising to destroy the so-called “political caste” and launching a scorched-earth economic reform programme.

    But what has Milei actually achieved since entering office? And should Britain really be looking to his administration for inspiration?

    Milei swept to power on a wave of anti-establishment anger. Styling himself as an outsider economist rallying against the ruling caste, he promised to slash state spending and replace Argentina’s peso with the more stable US dollar. He also pledged to eliminate entire government ministries, including health, education and culture.

    His now-famous “chainsaw plan” proposed a dramatic restructuring of Argentina’s political and economic institutions, which he blamed for decades of stagnation and corruption. Backed by business elites and libertarian ideologues, Milei offered a vision of Argentina remade through radical individualism and state retrenchment.

    His campaign, which contained some clear populist tendencies, was built as much on spectacle as substance. It contained daily media outbursts, personal attacks and an anti-caste rhetoric designed to turn governance into performance.

    Inflation was central to Milei’s campaign. When he took office, annual inflation in Argentina stood at over 130%, one of the highest rates in the world. Milei promised to bring it under control by slashing the fiscal deficit and enforcing monetary discipline.

    Monthly inflation doubled in the first months of his administration, forcing millions of Argentinians further into poverty. But it has fallen below 50% since the middle of 2025, which has been held by the government as a success.

    However, the decrease in the inflation rate is the result of economic recession. While international markets have praised Milei’s fiscal orthodoxy, there is little sign of a growth rebound. Investment has stalled, consumption has plummeted and local industries are struggling amid cuts to public procurement.

    Consumption has shown signs of recovery in the last few months, but only in the high-income segment. This has deepened a dual reality where middle-class and working sectors cannot make ends meet. Instead of helping the Argentinian economy recover, high-income consumption also pushes the trade balance to deteriorate.

    Milei’s government has endeavoured to keep the Argentine peso strong. A strong currency has seen foreign investments paused and, despite ongoing capital controls, millions of US dollars leave the country with a surge in Argentinian tourism abroad. This trend is exactly the opposite of the most controversial of Milei’s promises: to adopt the dollar in Argentina.

    Given the critical level of the central bank’s foreign reserves, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved the release of a US$4.7 billion (£3.5 billion) loan tranche in April 2024. It is expected to loan an extra US$2 billion before the 2025 mid-term elections in October.

    Squeezing Argentinian society

    Job losses have been extensive. Tens of thousands of public sector workers have been laid off, and many more have seen their salaries decimated by inflation. Entire agencies have been shut, from science and housing to the post office.

    Milei’s framing of public employees as part of a parasitic caste has helped him politically. It has reinforced his anti-establishment credentials and mobilised resentment among private sector workers and the self-employed. But it has further polarised an already fragmented Argentinian society.

    Unions and civil society organisations have mobilised in response, organising strikes and mass protests. These have been met in turn with crackdowns, the criminalisation of dissent and expanded police powers.

    Meanwhile, Congress has been sidelined. Milei’s critics warn of creeping authoritarianism as the president governs increasingly by decree, perhaps most notably by attempting to fill two vacancies of the Supreme Court in February.

    Environmental protection and foreign policy have also been reshaped by Milei’s radical agenda. The ministry of environment was among the agencies targeted for elimination. And Milei’s sweeping law of bases bill, which became law in 2024, included provisions to weaken environmental regulations and accelerate extractive industries such as lithium and oil.

    Milei dismisses environmental concerns as leftist distractions from economic freedom. This is a stance echoed in his foreign policy, which has seen Argentina pivot away from regional cooperation. He has snubbed neighbours like Brazil, withdrawn from the accession process to the Brics group of nations and has aligned himself more closely with the US, Israel and the global far right.

    He frequently rails against “global socialism”, and presents himself as a figurehead of a new anti-globalist movement. This posture appeals to his domestic base and international allies, but has further isolated Argentina diplomatically and eroded longstanding regional ties.

    If Badenoch wants to emulate Milei, it raises serious questions about the political and economic future she envisions for Britain. Argentina is currently living through a radical experiment in state destruction. Despite circumstantially winning praise from bond markets and libertarian circles, it has brought pain, polarisation and increasing levels of repression.

    For those looking beyond spectacle, Milei’s presidency offers not a blueprint for bold reform, but a cautionary tale about the dangers of governing by chainsaw.

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kemi Badenoch says she wants to be Britain’s Javier Milei – but is the Argentinian president a model to follow? – https://theconversation.com/kemi-badenoch-says-she-wants-to-be-britains-javier-milei-but-is-the-argentinian-president-a-model-to-follow-261915

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Ancient India, Living Traditions: an earnest effort to show how the art of Hinduism, Buddhism and Jainism is sacred and personal

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ram Prasad, Fellow of the British Academy and Distinguished Professor in the Department Politics, Philosophy and Religion, University of Leicester

    The British Museum’s Ancient India, Living Traditions exhibition brings together exhibits on the sacred art of Hinduism, Buddhism and Jainism. It also encompasses the spread of the devotional art of these traditions to other parts of Asia.

    The exhibition speaks to religious identity and relationships. Buddhism and Jainism distinguish themselves from the vast surrounding traditions that together we call Hinduism; but they have close kinship with it in practices, beliefs and iconography. Museums that have presented sculptures in isolation have usually not attempted to narrate this complex history.

    Not all the items displayed, some going back 2,000 years, are of purely historical interest. There are representations of traditions that are continuously living in a way the gods of ancient Egypt or classical Europe are not.

    The most instantly recognisable example for visitors of such living ancient tradition is likely to be statues of the elephant-headed deity Ganesha. Visitors can see a rare and valuable 4th century sandstone Ganesha on show. They can also see a small bronze version of that ancient Ganesha that is like the kind you would find in people’s home and to which a quick prayer would be addressed every morning.

    The question of how to respect that sense of the sacred while still mounting an exhibition is a moral and aesthetic challenge that few museums (including in India) have started to address. It’s not uncommon to see such pieces wrenched from the reality of their continued practice and presented in secular art displays. Here, however, the curators have tried to make connections between “statues” on display and “icons” in temples and homes.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Finally, there’s the problematic history of the imperial museum and its need to reckon with its past. Most objects on display in this exhibition, and The British Museum more widely, have been presented with scarcely any acknowledgement of how they came to be acquired.

    The exhibition makes an earnest effort to tackle most of these issues.

    Ancient but not dead

    The spaces of the exhibition are structured to be respectful of the historical and contemporary sensitivities of Buddhism and Jainism. This is signalled through subtle changes of colour and the placement of translucent drapery, allowing for transitions between distinct Jain, Buddhist and Hindu displays.

    At the same time, conceptual and sensory commonalities are powerfully conveyed. The first space focuses on nature spirits and demi-deities that are shared across all the ancient traditions. The air is filled with the sound of south Asian birds and musical instruments. The explanatory labels draw attention to the percolation of iconographic features between traditions, for instance, those between the Buddha and the Jaina teachers, or the direct inclusion of the deity of learning (Sarasvati) in both Hindu and Jain worship.

    Also well presented is a final space on the spread of south Asian iconography to central, east and southeast Asia. This is a long story that needs its own telling, but can only be hinted at through some beautifully chosen figures.

    It’s the curators’ use of a community advisory panel of people who practice such traditions today that gives the information its sensitivity. Their inclusion in the exhibition’s production can be seen in a marked mindfulness that the content and symbols of these inert objects are alive and sacred to hundreds of millions.

    For example, one Ganesha from Java in Indonesia draws attention to different elements of his iconography. There is the trans-continentally stable depiction of his having a broken tusk (which, as Hindus will know, he is said to have broken off to write down the epic Mahabharata). But this Ganesha also holds a skull, which is unique to the Javanese version. The label gently points out that “various communities understood and worshipped him differently”.

    The combination of community engagement and creative presentation not only conveys a sense of respect for the traditions, but also elicits a respectful response from visitors. Those from within the tradition will note with satisfaction the description of a symbol or icon. Those from outside the traditions are invited to look at the exhibits with attention and care as they might in a cathedral.

    I saw a pair of young Indian Americans looking at a fossilised ammonite from Nepal that is taken as a symbolic representation of god for worshippers of Vishnu. They animatedly compared it to the one in their own diasporic home.

    Elsewhere in the exhibition, I caught an elderly English couple stood in wondering silence in front of a drum slab from the famous 1st century BC Amaravathi Buddhist site in south India. This slab was carved just before figural representations of the Buddha rapidly gained in popularity. Here, there are symbols associated with him, but the Buddha himself is represented by the empty seat from whence he has gone.

    How did it all get here?

    One potential interpretive danger lies in the emphasis on continuity between past objects and present realities. Hindus today from social backgrounds that did not have the privilege of reaching back to high sacred art might ask where they sit in the smoothed out historical narrative. More broadly, there is no acknowledgement of the complexity of Hindu identity and its formation across centuries, regions, social strata, languages and theologies.

    The weakest part of this exhibition’s generally innovative retelling is the faint-hearted way in which it obliquely acknowledges the dubious acquisition process of the British Museum. To say something was “collected” by a major general “while serving in the East India Company army” is hardly facing up to the question with which the exhibition boldly begins: “How did it get here?”

    This exhibition offers a powerful visual narrative of the multi-spiritual traditions of ancient India, mounted with sensitivity to their living communities today. Its immersive presentation is appealing, and the story it tells is respectful and innovative.

    The task of honest self-representation and difficult conversations on reparation remain. Within that larger imperative, Ancient India, Living Traditions is a step in the right direction. It is a direction towards addressing context, responsiveness and engagement that museums can no longer ignore.

    Ancient India, Living Traditions in on at The British Museum, London until October 19 2025

    Get your news from actual experts, straight to your inbox. Sign up to our daily newsletter to receive all The Conversation UK’s latest coverage of news and research, from politics and business to the arts and sciences.

    Ram Prasad does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ancient India, Living Traditions: an earnest effort to show how the art of Hinduism, Buddhism and Jainism is sacred and personal – https://theconversation.com/ancient-india-living-traditions-an-earnest-effort-to-show-how-the-art-of-hinduism-buddhism-and-jainism-is-sacred-and-personal-262163

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: Modi’s visit to Ghana signals India’s broader Africa strategy. A researcher explains

    Source: The Conversation – Africa (2) – By Veda Vaidyanathan, Associate, Harvard University Asia Center, Harvard Kennedy School

    Ghana has historically been an anchor of Indian enterprise and diplomacy on the African continent.

    New Delhi and Accra formalised ties in 1957. At the time, their partnership was grounded in shared anti-colonial ideals and a common vision for post-independence development. India offered counsel on building Ghana’s institutions, including its external intelligence agency. Meanwhile, Indian teachers, technicians, and traders regularly travelled to the west African country in search of opportunity.

    The July 2025 visit of the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, to Ghana – the first by an Indian leader in over three decades – came at a critical moment for the continent. As the global order shifts towards multi-polarity, countries like Ghana are navigating a complex landscape, which includes western donors scaling back commitments. This has opened space to deepen cooperation through pragmatic, interest-driven collaborations with longstanding partners like India. Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, Ghana’s President John Mahama captured the spirit of this global realignment, noting that

    as bridges are burning, new bridges are being formed.

    Against this backdrop, Prime Minister Modi’s visit offered an opportunity to both revive and recalibrate bilateral ties. The visit carried a strong economic and strategic orientation. Ghana positioned itself as a partner in areas where India holds comparative advantage, such as pharmaceuticals. Over 26% of Africa’s generic medicines are sourced from India. The Food and Drugs Authority’s (Ghana’s regulator of pharmaceutical standards) listing of foreign pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities is dominated by Indian firms.

    Defence cooperation was also on the agenda. Ghana is looking to India for training, equipment and broader security engagement in response to rising threats from the Sahel and coastal piracy.

    This emphasis on shared security interests is underscored by Ghana’s alignment with India on counter-terrorism. President Mahama for instance has condemned the Pahalgam terrorist attacks that occurred in April, 2025.

    Reviving economic ties

    Economic ties are at the heart of this renewed engagement between the two countries. Bilateral trade currently stands at around US$3 billion. Both leaders aim to double it to US$6 billion over the next five years. Currently, Ghana enjoys a trade surplus with India. This is mainly due to gold exports, which account for over 70% of its shipments. Cocoa, cashew nuts, and timber are also key exports, while imports from India include pharmaceuticals, machinery, vehicles, and various industrial goods.

    India has invested more than US$2 billion in Ghana. These investments span private capital, concessional finance and grants across 900 projects. India now ranks among Ghana’s top investors. Indian firms and state-backed institutions play a key role in critical infrastructure development. Landmark projects include the 97km standard gauge Tema-Mpakadan Railway Line and the Ghana-India Kofi Annan ICT Centre, a hub for innovation and research.

    In an earlier study, I documented the perspectives of Indian entrepreneurs in Ghana. The findings underscored the country’s appeal as a land of economic opportunity. In interviews, Indian businesses highlighted Ghana’s stable political environment. An expanding consumer base, and relatively transparent regulatory framework were also mentioned. Together, these factors continue to attract investor interest.

    This economic momentum likely paved the way to pursue a closer bilateral relationship, marked by the elevation to a ‘Comprehensive Partnership’.

    While delegates in the July visit addressed issues such as financial inclusion, healthcare and agriculture, the tangible outcomes were limited. Four memoranda of understanding were signed. They cover cooperation on traditional medicine, regulatory standards and cultural exchange. The creation of a joint commission to structure and advance bilateral collaboration across priority sectors was also signed.

    Moving forward, Ghana offers India an entry point into west Africa’s resource landscape. With reserves of gold, bauxite, manganese and lithium, Ghana is well positioned to contribute to India’s needs for critical minerals. President Mahama’s invitation for investment in mineral extraction and processing aligns with India’s National Critical Mineral Mission, New Delhi is looking for supply chains for its energy transition. It creates an opportunity for Indian mining companies to expand into African markets.



    Read more:
    The world is rushing to Africa to mine critical minerals like lithium – how the continent should deal with the demand

    Pragmatic diplomacy

    With nearly US$100 billion in trade, cumulative investments of nearly US$75 billion, and a 3.5 million strong diaspora, the broader contours of India’s Africa policy is increasingly pragmatic and issue based.

    New Delhi’s evolving relations with Accra reflects this. It comes as Ghana is making sweeping economic reforms domestically, particularly in fiscal management and debt restructuring.

    This ambitious “economic reboot” hinges on attracting private sector investment. In this context, the Indian diaspora, already deeply embedded in Ghana’s commercial networks, is well positioned to foster stronger economic ties.

    In his address to Ghana’s Parliament, The Indian Prime Minister spoke of development cooperation that is demand driven and focused on building local capacity and creating local opportunities. This approach “to not just invest, but empower”, signals India’s growing intent to anchor relationships in mutual agency, rather than dependency.

    Veda Vaidyanathan is Fellow, Foreign Policy and Security Studies, at a leading Indian think tank.

    – ref. Modi’s visit to Ghana signals India’s broader Africa strategy. A researcher explains – https://theconversation.com/modis-visit-to-ghana-signals-indias-broader-africa-strategy-a-researcher-explains-261187

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: 8 policies that would help fight poverty in South Africa’s economic hub Gauteng

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Adrino Mazenda, Senior Researcher, Associate Professor Economic Management Sciences, University of Pretoria

    Poverty goes beyond income. It often arises when health, education and opportunities fall short of meeting people’s needs.

    Individuals are classified as impoverished when they face deprivation in one-third or more of the indicators in a multidimensional poverty index. The index reflects the various influences on socioeconomic class. These include housing, sanitation, electricity, cooking fuel, nutrition and school attendance.

    The index is one of the most comprehensive measures of poverty. The fact that the multidimentional index captures multiple dimensions enables it to reflect overlapping disadvantages. And provides a fuller picture of well-being. Other monetary measures such as income aren’t as comprehensive.

    About 18% of the world’s population are poor by the definition of the multidimentional poverty index. Sub-Saharan Africa is especially affected, with a multidimensional poverty rate nearing 59%.

    In South Africa, it is at around 40%. This means it experiences four in 10 of the dimensions of poverty.

    The province of Gauteng is South Africa’s economic hub. Nevertheless it contains pockets of severe deprivation. About 4.6% of households are poor. In some wards up to 68% are severely deprived.

    We are social scientists with research histories in food systems and livelihoods, public policy and economics of human capital. We recently conducted a study focused on Gauteng. We wanted to determine what could enable poor and vulnerable households to move out of those categories.

    We used a modelling exercise that allowed us to isolate the most relevant factors for this transition.

    The study found six factors: education, age, income, working time, medical aid and being a recipient of a low income municipal support grant. We concluded from this that attending to these six variables was the foundation for upward mobility.

    Conversely, vulnerability to economic shocks, such as job loss or food insecurity, can trigger rapid downward mobility.

    Based on our findings we make eight policy recommendations. These include boosting education and skills training, better healthcare and affordable, reliable transport.

    Range of factors

    Multidimensional poverty intersects with socioeconomic class structures. It reinforces inequality by placing individuals into hierarchical groups. These range from the affluent and middle class to the transient, vulnerable, and chronically poor.

    These disparities shape access to resources, opportunities and upward mobility.

    Lower-class households differ from middle-class and affluent (non-poor) households across multiple dimensions. These differences include income stability, consumption patterns, access to services, asset ownership, social capital and vulnerability to shocks.

    In the light of this we adopted a multidimensional poverty approach to classify households. We used various dimensions and indicators of poverty to assess the extent of deprivation and associated poverty levels.

    We calculated the deprivation score and classified households into three levels: not poor, moderate poverty (vulnerable), and severe poverty (chronically poor).

    Working time had the strongest effect. Part- or full-time work greatly lowered odds of severe poverty (chronic poverty) and moderate poverty (transient poverty). Working time refers to the duration that a person is engaged in paid employment or work-related activities. This is usually between 35 and 45 hours per week for full-time employment. And fewer than 35 hours per week for part-time employment.

    Some factors only influenced certain groups. For severe poverty, transport access, household health, food parcel reliance, household size, and skipping meals were significant. For moderate poverty, gender, food parcel reliance and skipping meals mattered. And for the vulnerable non-poor (middle class), distance from public transport was the only additional factor.

    Social grants and being part of the black population group showed little influence. Transitions and the ability to transcend poverty classes were driven mainly by direct socio-economic factors.

    These dynamics underscore the precariousness of low-income households. They also highlight the importance of targeted interventions to break cycles of poverty.

    Higher education, stable income and access to full-time work, drastically reduce the odds of remaining in severe or moderate poverty or being vulnerable. Medical aid access and municipal assistance programmes that provide free or subsidised basic services, also serve as protective factors. These help households meet essential health and welfare needs.

    However, several structural and socio-economic constraints hinder transitions out of poverty. For example, living a greater distance from public transport increases the likelihood of severe poverty and vulnerability.

    Food insecurity, measured by skipping meals or dependence on food parcels, remains a persistent marker of entrenched deprivation.

    Gender disparities suggest underlying labour market or social vulnerabilities that require targeted policy interventions. For example, male-headed households are more likely than female-headed households to be moderately poor.

    What can be done

    Escaping multidimensional poverty in Gauteng requires targeted, practical and complementary interventions. Examples include subsidised transport, decentralised clinics, or housing closer to jobs.

    This will enable grants to be translated to improved well-being.

    We suggest eight areas for improvement:

    • access to education, vocational training and digital skills. This will help to increase employment prospects

    • public works and youth entrepreneurship support. This will boost income generation

    • social protection like indigent benefits, food vouchers and subsidised medical aid

    • food security. This can be done through community gardens and nutrition programmes

    • support for female-headed households and young people

    • affordable, reliable public transport. Services also need to be decentralised

    • data-driven municipal planning to guide infrastructure and service investments

    • consistently tracking progress against defined objectives.

    The province implements multiple poverty-reduction initiatives. These include expanded public works, township economy support, food gardens, free basic services, subsidised housing, and public transport projects.

    These efforts address income, food security and mobility. But they have limited impact due to persistent barriers. This is because many, particularly young people, don’t have market-relevant skills. In addition, spatial inequality results in long, costly commutes. And housing shortages and rising food prices deepen vulnerability.

    Fragmented funding, weak coordination and inadequate data tracking also undermine progress.

    Massimiliano Tani receives funding from Australian Research Council (unrelated to this article).

    Adrino Mazenda and Catherine Althaus do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 8 policies that would help fight poverty in South Africa’s economic hub Gauteng – https://theconversation.com/8-policies-that-would-help-fight-poverty-in-south-africas-economic-hub-gauteng-261388

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Israel’s attack on Syria: Protecting the Druze minority or a regional power play?

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Spyros A. Sofos, Assistant Professor in Global Humanities, Simon Fraser University

    A new round of violence recently erupted in southern Syria, where clashes between local Druze militias and Sunni fighters have left hundreds dead.

    In response, Israel launched airstrikes in and around the province of Sweida on July 15, saying it was acting to protect the Druze minority and to deter attacks by Syrian government forces.

    The strikes mark Israel’s most serious escalation in Syria since December 2024, and they underline a growing trend in its foreign policy: the use of minority protection as a tool of regional influence and power projection.

    The Druze minority

    The Druze, a small but strategically significant ethno-religious group, have historically occupied a precarious position in the politics of Syria, Israel and Lebanon.

    With an estimated million members across the Levant — a sub-region of west Asia that forms the core of the Middle East — the Druze have often tried to preserve their autonomy amid broader sectarian and political upheavals. In Syria, they make up about three per cent of the population, concentrated largely in the southern province of Sweida.

    Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in late 2024 and the rise of a new Islamist-led government under Ahmed al-Sharaa, the Druze in southern Syria have resisted central authority.

    Though not united in their stance, many Druze militias have rejected integration into the new Syrian army, preferring to rely on local defence networks. The latest wave of violence, sparked by the abduction of a Druze merchant, has been met with both brutality from pro-government forces and military retaliation by Israel.

    Truly protecting Syrian minorities?

    Israeli officials says they intervened to protect the Druze, which is not unprecedented. Over the past year, Israel has increasingly portrayed itself as a defender of threatened minorities in Syria — rhetoric that echoes past efforts to align with non-Arab or marginalized groups, such as the Kurds and certain Christian communities.

    This strategy may be less about humanitarian goals and, in fact, much more deeply political.

    By positioning itself as a regional protector of minorities, Israel could be seeking to craft a narrative of moral authority, particularly as it faces growing international outrage over its policies in the West Bank and Gaza. This is an example of what scholars refer to as strategic or nation branding by states to cultivate legitimacy and influence through selective interventions and symbolic gestures.

    But Israel’s actions may not just concern image. They could also be part of a broader geopolitical strategy of containment and fragmentation.

    The new authorities in Syria are seen as a significant threat, particularly because of the presence of Islamist factions operating near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights. By creating what is in effect a buffer zone in southern Syria, Israel’s goal may be to prevent the entrenchment of hostile entities along its northern border while also capitalizing on Syria’s internal fragilities.

    Strategic risks

    With sectarian tensions resurfacing in Syria, the Israeli government probably sees an opportunity to build informal alliances with disaffected groups like the Druze, who may be skeptical of the new Syrian government. This reflects a shift in Israel’s foreign policy from reactive deterrence to proactive strategic disruption.

    This approach is not without risks. While some Druze leaders have welcomed Israeli support, others — particularly in Syria and Lebanon — have accused Israel of stoking sectarian tensions to justify military intervention and advance territorial or security aims.

    Such accusations echo longstanding criticisms that Israel’s involvement in regional conflicts is often guided less by humanitarian concern and more by cold strategic calculation.

    This new phase in Israeli foreign policy also fits into a broader pattern I’ve previously written about — the increasing revisionism of Israel’s regional strategy under Benjamin Netanyahu’s leadership. That strategy seemingly seeks to upend multilateral norms, bypass traditional diplomacy and pursue influence through direct engagement — often militarized — with non-state entities and marginalized communities.



    Read more:
    How Israel’s domestic crises and Netanyahu’s aim to project power are reshaping the Middle East

    Israel’s July 15 strikes, and an attack on Syria’s Ministry of Defence in Damascus the following day, have drawn strong condemnation from Arab states, Turkey and the United Nations.

    While Israeli officials have justified the attacks as defensive and humanitarian, the intensity and symbolic targets suggest a deeper intention: to demonstrate operational reach, and, more importantly, actively engage in a redesign of the region with fragmentation and state weakness as the main objective.

    Fragmentation of the Middle East

    The United States, while expressing concern over the violence, has largely remained silent on Israel’s expanding role in Syria. This could further embolden Israeli actions in a region where international norms are being increasingly upended and traditional great power engagement is waning.

    Sectarian clashes are likely to continue in Sweida and beyond as Syria’s central government struggles to reassert control. That means that for Israel, the opportunity to deepen its footprint in southern Syria under the guise of minority protection remains.

    But despite its effort to present itself as a stable, moral presence in an otherwise chaotic neighbourhood, Israel could be undermining the very stability it says it wants to protect as it militarizes humanitarianism.

    The world is not not just witnessing a series of airstrikes or another episode of sectarian violence in the Middle East. It’s watching a profound transformation in the regional order — one in which traditional borders, alliances and identities are being reshaped.

    Amid this environment, Israel’s role could evolve not just as a military power, but as a revisionist nation navigating, and helping to bring about, the fragmentation of the Middle East.

    Spyros A. Sofos does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Israel’s attack on Syria: Protecting the Druze minority or a regional power play? – https://theconversation.com/israels-attack-on-syria-protecting-the-druze-minority-or-a-regional-power-play-261648

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: ‘Pay us what you owe us:’ What the WNBA’s collective bargaining talks reveal about negotiation psychology

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Ryan Clutterbuck, Assistant Professor in Sport Management, Brock University

    WNBA all-star players, led by Indiana Fever’s Caitlin Clark and the Minnesota Lynx’s Naphessa Collier, recently made headlines by wearing “Pay Us What You Owe Us” T-shirts during the pregame warm-up.

    The T-shirts, which are now available for purchase, were a demonstration of players’ frustrations with the WNBA owners and the ongoing collective bargaining agreement negotiation. The collective agreement sets out the terms and conditions of employment (like salaries and benefits) between the league and its players, and is set to expire Oct. 31, 2025.

    Reportedly, players are asking for increased revenue sharing (the current agreement stipulates WNBA players receive only nine per cent of league revenue, relative to their NBA peers who receive 50 per cent), increased compensation (the average WNBA salary is US$147,745) and other benefits.

    Central to these demands is the perception that, despite a surge in popularity, media attention and viewership, WNBA players are still being underpaid and are undervalued.

    Negotiations for a new collective agreement are ongoing. But as the T-shirts and subsequent public statements from the players and the WNBA show, there is increasing frustration with how the process is unfolding.

    What is ‘owed’ to WNBA players?

    Debate over what is “owed” to WNBA players has intensified recently. ESPN commentator Pat McAfee, for example, has suggested the league should simply increase players’ salaries by US$30,000 per player, saying that contracts like Clark’s are “an embarrassment.”

    But others argue this discussion should go beyond players’ salaries. Syracuse University sport management professor Lindsey Darvin writes:

    “The question isn’t whether the WNBA can afford to pay players what they’re worth; it’s whether the league can afford not to make the investments necessary to realize its full potential.”

    According to Darvin, because the WNBA is an economically inefficient — and arguably exploitative — business, its focus should be on increasing revenue, and not simply on reducing its labour costs. For example, with the goal to satisfy increasing market demands for the WNBA, strategies to increase revenue could include expanding the league to new markets, scheduling more games at the 3 p.m. Eastern time slot and increasing the number of regular season games from 44 to 60 or more.

    In sport management classrooms and negotiation workshops at Brock University, we call this “expanding the pie” — working collaboratively, as opposed to combatively, to grow the game and the business so that both players and owners benefit over the long term. But this is easier said than done.

    Information shapes negotiation outcomes

    While it’s still early in the negotiation process, there are lessons that can be learned from this round of collective bargaining. One of those lessons has to do with making and receiving first offers. In particular, two psychological concepts are at play: information asymmetry and the anchoring effect.

    Information asymmetry occurs when one party holds more relevant knowledge than the other. For example, in a typical job negotiation, the employer knows the number of applicants for the position, how much the company is willing to pay and what compensation trends look like across the sector. The candidate, by contrast, lacks most if not all of this information and thus enters the negotiation at a distinct disadvantage.

    The question is: who should make the first salary offer? The general rule is that when you lack critical information, it’s better to let the other side make the first move.

    In the case of the WNBA’s negotiations, the information asymmetry problem is not so obvious. The owners likely have a certain perspective on what is acceptable in terms of sharing league revenue and improving working conditions. But the players possess their own kind of leverage, regarding their willingness to protest or walk out entirely.

    The league made its initial proposal to the players in early July, but it was not well received.

    The ‘anchoring effect’ can skew negotiations

    Another problem influencing negotiations is the “anchoring effect.” This occurs when an initial offer influences subsequent offers and counteroffers, and ultimately has an impact on the final outcome.

    Garage-sale aficionados may recognize this tendency, as buyers often negotiate with the seller’s sticker price in mind, haggling to earn a 25 or 50 per cent discount on an item without considering whether the item is actually worth the cost. Here, the sticker acts as the anchor.

    While sticker prices and first offers are not inherently malicious, some sale prices and first offers are intended to manipulate buyers and negotiators representing the other side. Savvy negotiators deploy strategic anchors, but even they can sometimes miss.

    In maritime terms, anchor scour occurs when a ship’s anchor fails to catch hold and instead drags across the seabed, destroying ecosystems caught in its path.

    In negotiations, a similar process can unfold. When initial moves and first offers fail to catch hold because they are perceived to be unfair by the other side, it can damage relationships and can make subsequent negotiations even more difficult.

    Now, the WNBA may face the consequences of a poorly received anchor. According to WNBA player representative, Satou Sabally, the WNBA’s initial offer was a “slap in the face”.

    New York Liberty’s Breanna Stewart called the players’ meeting with the league on July 17 to discuss a new collective bargaining agreement a “wasted opportunity” while Chicago Sky player Angel Reese called the negotiations “disrespectful.”

    It’s time to right the ship

    Though it’s still early days, we expect negotiations to heat up in the coming weeks as the Halloween deadline to reach a deal approaches.

    There is still time to right the ship, so to speak, but to do so, WNBA players and owners must internalize the potentially disastrous impacts that can come from negotiating over an imagined “fixed pie” instead of expanding it, and dropping anchors that fail to address the other sides’ key interests.

    WNBA players and WNBA team owners now have, in front of them, a once-in-a-generation opportunity to transform professional women’s sport in North America, through creatively and collaboratively expanding the pie and paying the players what they’re owed.

    Michele K. Donnelly has received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC).

    Michael Van Bussel and Ryan Clutterbuck do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Pay us what you owe us:’ What the WNBA’s collective bargaining talks reveal about negotiation psychology – https://theconversation.com/pay-us-what-you-owe-us-what-the-wnbas-collective-bargaining-talks-reveal-about-negotiation-psychology-261731

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Car tires are polluting the environment and killing salmon. A global plastics treaty could help

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Timothy Rodgers, Postdoctoral Fellow in Environmental Engineering, University of British Columbia

    In the 1990s, scientists restoring streams around Seattle, Wash., noticed that returning coho salmon were dying after rainstorms. The effects were immediate: the fish swam in circles, gasping at the surface, then died in a few hours.

    Over the next several decades, researchers chipped away at the problem until in 2020 they discovered the culprit: a chemical called 6PPD-quinone that forms when its parent compound, a tire additive called 6PPD, reacts with ozone.

    6PPD-quinone kills coho salmon at extraordinarily low concentrations, making it one of the most toxic substances to an aquatic species that scientists have ever found.

    Today, a growing body of evidence shows that tire additives and their transformation products, including 6PPD-quinone, are contaminating ecosystems and showing up in people.

    Now, alongside the researchers who made that initial discovery, we’re calling for international regulation of these chemicals to protect people and the environment.

    Our recently published research outlines the hazard posed by tire additives due to their demonstrated toxicity and high emissions near people and sensitive ecosystems, how current regulations don’t do enough to protect us, and how we can do better.

    Tires are complex chemical products

    Tires are far from simple rubber rings. They’re complex chemical products made to endure heat, friction and degradation. For example, 6PPD is in tires to protect them from ozone, which causes tires to crack.

    Unfortunately, little attention was paid to these chemicals until scientists discovered the impacts of 6PPD-quinone and realized these chemicals could be hazardous.

    Once they started looking, researchers found many tire additives, including 6PPD-quinone, in streams near roads, in dust and in the air — wherever there are roads, there is tire additive contamination.

    Although 6PPD-quinone is most lethal to coho, it is also lethal to several other species of salmonids, and it may be toxic to aquatic plants and terrestrial invertebrates.

    We know that exposure to tire wear particles and the chemicals that leach from them affect other aquatic species that are used as indicators of toxicological risk. This widespread contamination occurs because emissions of tire additives are high.

    Every time we drive, we produce particles from tire wear, and those particles release additives into the environment. Tires lose 10-20 per cent of their mass over their lifetime. That means driving emits over one million tonnes of tire particles to the environment in both the United States and the European Union every year.

    All those tire particle emissions represent a large source of chemicals to the environment and high human exposures, especially in cities. Researchers have started to find tire additives and their transformation products in people.

    Although more research is needed on how tire additives affect people, 6PPD is classified as a reproductive toxin, and other tire additives and their transformation products have been associated with increased cancer risk in exposed populations.

    Emerging research with mice indicates that some tire additives and their transformation products impact mammals, with studies showing neurotoxicity, damage to multiple organ systems and impaired fertility from 6PPD-quinone.

    That’s why our team of environmental scientists is calling for urgent global action.

    Plastics treaty

    We’re not arguing that tires shouldn’t have additives, but those additives must be safer. That’s why we are calling for a process that replaces 6PPD and other tire additives with safer alternatives. Tire additives should be nonhazardous across their entire life cycle, and manufacturers should be transparent about what tire additives they are using and what their hazards are.

    Next week, governments from around the world are meeting to negotiate a global treaty to end plastic pollution. We call for tires to be explicitly included in the treaty, and we want to see strong measures around plastic additives including tire additives.

    We want to see:

    • Deadlines for phasing out hazardous chemicals;
    • The ability to mandate alternatives;
    • Transparency around the chemicals used in tires;
    • Independent panels for evaluating additive alternatives and for assessing additive effects;
    • Dedicated working groups focused on tire additives due to their large emissions and demonstrated ecological impacts.

    The good news is that we’ve done this before. After scientists found a hole in the ozone layer, the world banded together under the Montréal Protocol to phase out the most damaging chemicals to the ozone layer. Today, the ozone layer is recovering, averting millions of cases of skin cancer and helping combat climate change. We need the same level of ambition and urgency now.

    Making tires nonhazardous for the environment would help safeguard coho salmon populations, restoring traditional foods to Indigenous Peoples across the Pacific Northwest and protecting a species vital for aquatic ecosystems.

    Since roads are built where people are, reducing the hazard from tire particle pollution would reduce one source of exposure to potentially toxic chemicals, and ensure a future where fewer people are impacted by chemical pollution. It’s time for global action on tire additives, before their impacts become even harder to ignore.

    Timothy Rodgers receives funding from the British Columbia Salmon Restoration and Innovation Fund.

    Rachel Scholes receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, the Canadian Foundation for Innovation, the BC Knowledge Development Fund, and the BC Salmon Restoration and Innovation Fund.

    Simon Drew receives funding from the British Columbia Salmon Restoration and Innovation Fund.

    – ref. Car tires are polluting the environment and killing salmon. A global plastics treaty could help – https://theconversation.com/car-tires-are-polluting-the-environment-and-killing-salmon-a-global-plastics-treaty-could-help-261832

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Analysis: It’s not revolutionary, but Primark’s wheelchair-using mannequin is a potent symbol

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By William E. Donald, Associate Professor of Sustainable Careers and Human Resource Management, University of Southampton

    Brett D Cove/Primark, CC BY-ND

    July is Disability Pride Month, a time to celebrate disabled people while continuing the push for equality, accessibility and visibility. Despite making up 16% of the global population, disabled people rarely appear in fashion marketing campaigns. For brands, treading the right line between solidarity and accusations of performative allyship is vital.

    Primark’s latest initiative is a notable attempt to navigate this challenge. The fashion chain has introduced its first mannequin representing a wheelchair user. Designed with disability advocate Sophie Morgan, the mannequin (named Sophie) now appears in 22 flagship stores internationally.

    At first glance, this looks like progress. However, in an industry where inclusivity is often more about appearance than systemic change, it prompts an important question. Is this a genuine step forward?

    The mannequin is designed to reflect a manual wheelchair user. Morgan contributed to a year-long design process that included reviewing body dimensions, 3D mock-ups and a custom wheelchair frame strong enough to withstand store conditions.

    Disability campaigner Sophie Morgan was involved throughout the design process.
    Brett D Cove/Primark, CC BY-ND

    The launch coincides with the expansion of Primark’s adaptive clothing collection, which was launched in January 2025. The collection features magnetic closures, elasticated waistbands and discreet openings for medical access points like feeding tubes or stomas. Many garments are designed specifically for seated wearers – as a wheelchair user, I am only too aware that this is often missing from mainstream clothing ranges.

    What sets Primark’s effort apart is its emphasis on affordability. Adaptive clothing has been sold mostly through specialist retailers or premium brands. Primark’s decision to offer it at a low price point could represent a meaningful shift in making accessible fashion mainstream. And the involvement of disabled advocates and the visible changes across stores suggest a more serious commitment.

    In 2014, supermarket Sainsbury’s Back To School campaign featured Natty Goleniowska, a seven-year-old girl with Down’s syndrome. Then, in 2017, the fashion chain River Island ran a campaign featuring Joseph Hale, an 11-year-old boy also with Down’s syndrome. While Sainsbury’s campaign was groundbreaking and both were widely praised, they were largely confined to advertising and online platforms.

    Primark, by placing its seated mannequin in shop windows and on store floors, brings representation into physical retail spaces. This challenges long-standing visual norms and offers disabled shoppers something that has long been absent – recognition in the places where they live and shop.

    What Primark gets right

    First, disabled people were included throughout the campaign’s development. Morgan’s role was not symbolic – her input shaped the final design.

    Second, the mannequin is more than a token gesture. It is a durable, mass-produced model intended for multiple locations. This kind of visibility in bricks-and-mortar stores matters. For many disabled people, seeing themselves reflected in major retail environments can be validating and empowering.

    Third, the adaptive clothing range includes thoughtful, functional features that are often missing in standard retail offerings. Design details like seated-friendly fits or catheter access offer tangible improvements for dressing with dignity.

    Finally, launching the campaign during Disability Pride Month adds relevance. Amid growing scrutiny of superficial inclusion, Primark’s approach appears to be carefully considered, as it builds on a campaign that began in January 2025.

    But there’s still room for improvement across the retail sector. Mannequins cannot solve physical barriers in stores. Many retail spaces still lack step-free access, automatic doors or accessible changing rooms. Until these issues are addressed, the mannequin risks becoming a symbol disconnected from the reality of disabled shoppers.

    Second, while Primark’s adaptive line is innovative, it remains small. Style variety, trend relevance and extended sizing should be priorities to ensure disabled shoppers are not limited to functional basics.

    Third, economic accessibility extends beyond low prices. Disabled people face disproportionate financial pressures. Future efforts could include partnerships with health schemes or grants to improve access further.

    And representation should be broader still. Disability comes in many forms, intersecting with race, body size, gender identity and types of mobility aids (including for invisible disabilities). Future campaigns should reflect this diversity. And true inclusion extends to employment practices and customer service. Hiring more disabled staff and creating accessible roles in retail would shift inclusion from visual representation to operational reality.

    Ultimately, diversity should include retailers’ workforce as well as their customers.
    DC Studio/Shutterstock

    While there are certainly green shoots of positivity here, it is too early to tell if this will be a gamechanging move by Primark. The answer depends on whether this campaign marks the start of sustained change across the retail sector. The real test lies ahead.

    Long-term commitments such as improving store accessibility, expanding representation and inclusive hiring practices are essential. Without these, it might come to be seen as performative allyship that risks damaging not only Primark’s brand but also the disabled community and society at large.

    Primark’s seated mannequin is not a revolution, but it is a powerful symbol. It sends a message that disabled people deserve visibility in public life – not as an afterthought, but as valued participants. To move from intention to transformation, visibility must be matched with access.

    Inclusion needs to be embedded into the infrastructure of retail, not just its imagery. All retailers should take a broader view of inclusive practices to ensure clear messaging and commitments across their supply chain, advertising and stores.

    William E. Donald does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. It’s not revolutionary, but Primark’s wheelchair-using mannequin is a potent symbol – https://theconversation.com/its-not-revolutionary-but-primarks-wheelchair-using-mannequin-is-a-potent-symbol-262143

    MIL OSI Analysis –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Air-dropping food into Gaza is a ‘smokescreen’ – this is what must be done to prevent mass starvation

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Amra Lee, PhD candidate in Protection of Civilians, Australian National University

    Israel partially lifted its aid blockade of Gaza this week in response to intensifying international pressure over the man-made famine in the devastated coastal strip.

    The United Arab Emirates and Jordan airdropped 25 tonnes of food and humanitarian supplies on Sunday. Israel has further announced daily pauses in its military strikes on Gaza and the opening of humanitarian corridors to facilitate UN aid deliveries.

    Israel reports it has permitted 70 trucks per day into the strip since May 19. This is well below the 500–600 trucks required per day, according to the United Nations.

    The UN emergency relief chief, Tom Fletcher, has characterised the next few days as “make or break” for humanitarian agencies trying to reach more than two million Gazans facing “famine-like conditions”.

    A third of Gazans have gone without food for several days and 90,000 women and children now require urgent care for acute malnutrition. Local health authorities have reported 147 deaths from starvation so far, 80% of whom are children.

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed – without any evidence – “there is no starvation in Gaza”. This claim has been rejected by world leaders, including Netanyahu ally US President Donald Trump.

    Famine expert Alex de Waal has called the famine in Gaza without precedent:

    […] there’s no case of such minutely engineered, closely monitored, precisely designed mass starvation of a population as is happening in Gaza today.

    While the UN has welcomed the partial lifting of the blockade, the current aid being allowed into Gaza will not be enough to avert a wider catastrophe, due to the severity and depth of hunger in Gaza and the health needs of the people.

    According to the UN World Food Programme, which has enough food stockpiled to feed all of Gaza for three months, only one thing will work:

    An agreed ceasefire is the only way to reach everyone.

    Airdrops a ‘distraction and a smokescreen’

    Air-dropping food supplies is considered a last resort due to the undignified and unsafe manner in which the aid is delivered.

    The UN has already reported civilians being injured when packages have fallen on tents.

    The Global Protection Cluster, a network of non-governmental organisations and UN agencies, shared a story from a mother in Al Karama, east of Gaza City, whose home was hit by an airdropped pallet, causing the roof to collapse:

    Immediately following the impact, a group of people armed with knives rushed towards the house, while the mother locked herself and her children in the remaining room to protect her family. They did not receive any assistance and are fearful for their safety.

    Air-dropped pallets of food are also inefficient compared with what can be delivered by road.

    One truck can carry up to 20 tonnes of supplies. Trucks can also reach Gaza quickly if they are allowed to cross at the scale required. Aid agencies have repeatedly said they have the necessary aid and personnel sitting just one hour away at the border.

    Given how ineffective the air drops have been – and will continue to be – the head of the UN Relief Works Agency (UNRWA) for Palestine has called them a “distraction” and a “smokescreen”.

    Malnourished women and children need specialised care

    De Waal has also made clear how starvation differs from other war crimes – it takes weeks of denying aid for starvation to take hold.

    For the 90,000 acutely malnourished women and children who require specialised and supplementary feeding, in addition to medical care, the type of food being air-dropped into Gaza will not help them. Malnourished children require nutritional screening and access to fortified pastes and baby food.

    Gaza’s decimated health system is also not able to treat severely malnourished women and children, who are at risk of “refeeding syndrome” when they are provided with nutrients again. This can trigger a fatal metabolic response.

    Gaza will take generations to heal from the long-term impacts of mass starvation. Malnourished children suffer lifelong cognitive and physical effects that can then be passed on to future generations.

    What needs to happen now

    The UN has characterised the limited reopening of aid deliveries to Gaza as a potential “lifeline”, if it’s upheld and expanded.

    According to Ciaran Donnelly from the International Rescue Committee, what’s needed is “tragically simple”: Israel must fully open the Gaza borders to allow aid and humanitarian personnel to flood in.

    Israel must also guarantee safe conditions for the dignified distribution of aid that reaches everyone, including women, children, the elderly and people with disabilities. The level of hunger and insecurity mean these groups are at high risk of exclusion.

    The people of Gaza have the world’s attention – for now. They have endured increasingly dehumanising conditions – including the risk of being shot trying to access aid – under the cover of war for more than 21 months.

    Two leading Israeli human rights organisations have just publicly called Israel’s war on Gaza “a genocide”. This builds on mounting evidence compiled by the UN and other experts that supports the same conclusion, triggering the duty under international law for all states to act to prevent genocide.

    These obligations require more than words – states must exercise their full diplomatic leverage to pressure Israel to let aid in at the scale required to avert famine. States must also pressure Israel to extend its military pauses into the only durable solution – a permanent ceasefire.

    Amra Lee does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Air-dropping food into Gaza is a ‘smokescreen’ – this is what must be done to prevent mass starvation – https://theconversation.com/air-dropping-food-into-gaza-is-a-smokescreen-this-is-what-must-be-done-to-prevent-mass-starvation-262053

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: A rare, direct warning from Japan signals a shift in the fight against child sex tourism in Asia

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Ming Gao, Research Fellow of East Asia Studies, Lund University

    Jonas Gratzer/LightRocket via Getty Images

    Japan’s embassy in Laos and its Ministry of Foreign Affairs has issued a rare and unusually direct advisory, warning Japanese men against “buying sex from children” in Laos.

    The move was sparked by Ayako Iwatake, a restaurant owner in Vientiane, who allegedly saw social media posts of Japanese men bragging about child prostitution. In response, she launched a petition calling for government action.

    The Japanese-language bulletin makes clear such conduct is prosecutable under both Laotian law and Japan’s child prostitution and pornography law, which applies extraterritorially.

    This diplomatic statement was not only a legal warning. It was a rare public acknowledgement of Japanese men’s alleged entanglement in transnational child sex tourism, particularly in Southeast Asia.

    It’s also a moment that demands we look beyond individual criminal acts or any one nation and consider the historical, racial and structural inequalities that make such mobility and exploitation possible.

    A changing map of exploitation

    Selling and buying sex in Asia is nothing new. The contours have shifted over time but the underlying sentiment has remained constant: some lives are cheap and commodified, and some wallets are deep and entitled.

    Japan’s involvement in overseas prostitution stretches back to the Meiji period (1868-1912). Young women from impoverished rural regions (known as karayuki-san) migrated abroad, often to Southeast Asia, to work in the sex industry, from port towns in Malaya to brothels in China and the Pacific Islands.

    If poverty once pushed Japanese women abroad to sell their bodies, by the second half of the 20th century – fuelled by Japan’s postwar economic boom – it was wealthy Japanese men who began travelling overseas to buy sex.

    Around the 2000s, the dynamic flipped again. In South Korea, now a developed economy, men travelled to Southeast Asia – and later to countries such as Russia and Uzbekistan – following routes once taken by Japanese men.

    Later in the same period, the flow took an even darker turn.

    Japanese and South Korean men began to emerge as major buyers of child sex abroad, particularly across Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands and even Mongolia.

    According to the United States Department of State, Japanese men continued to be “a significant source of demand for sex tourism”, while South Korean men remained “a source of demand for child sex tourism”.

    The UN Office on Drugs and Crime and other organisations have also flagged both countries as key contributors to child sexual exploitation in the region.

    From exporter to destination: Japan’s new role in the sex trade

    A more recent and troubling shift appears to be unfolding within Japan.

    Amid ongoing economic stagnation and the depreciation of the yen, Tokyo has reportedly become a destination for inbound sex tourism. Youth protection organisations have observed a notable rise in foreign male clients, particularly Chinese, frequenting areas where teenage girls and young women engage in survival sex.

    What ties these movements together is not just culturally specific beliefs, such as the fetishisation of virginity or the superstition that sex with young girls brings good luck in business, but power.

    The battle to protect children

    The global campaign to end child sex tourism began in earnest with the founding of ECPAT (a global network of organisations that seeks to end the sexual exploitation of children) in 1990 to confront the rising exploitation of children in Southeast Asia.

    Despite legal frameworks and international scrutiny, the abuse of children remains disturbingly common.

    Several factors converge here: endemic poverty, weak law enforcement and a constant influx of wealthier foreign men. Add to that the digital age of information and communication technologies, where child sex can be advertised, arranged and commodified through encrypted platforms and invitation-only forums, and the crisis deepens.

    While local governments often pledge reform, implementation is inconsistent.

    Buyers, especially foreign buyers, often manage to evade consequences. However, in early 2025, Japan’s National Police Agency arrested 111 people – including high school teachers and tutors – in a nationwide crackdown on online child sexual exploitation, conducted in coordination with international partners.

    Why this moment matters

    The shock surrounding the Laos revelations and the unusually direct response from Japanese authorities offers a rare opportunity to confront the deeper systems at work.

    Sex tourism doesn’t happen in a vacuum. It’s enabled by uneven development, transnational mobility, weak regulation and social silence. But this moment also shows grassroots activism can force institutional action.

    Japan’s official warning wasn’t triggered by a government audit or diplomatic scandal. It came because Ayako Iwatake saw social media posts of Japanese men boasting about buying sex from children and refused to look away.

    When she delivered the petition to the embassy, it responded quickly. Less than ten days later, the Foreign Ministry issued a public warning, clearly outlining the legal consequences of child sex crimes committed abroad.

    Iwatake’s action is a reminder: it doesn’t take a government to expose a system. It takes someone willing to speak out – even when it’s uncomfortable. As she told Japanese newspaper Mainichi Shimbun:

    It was just too blatant. I couldn’t look the other way.

    It’s commendable that Japan acted swiftly. But a warning alone isn’t enough. Japan should strengthen and expand its international cooperation to combat these heinous crimes.

    A more decisive model can be seen in a recent case in Vietnam, where US authorities infiltrated a livestream child sex abuse network for the first time in that country. Working undercover for months, they coordinated with Vietnamese officials to arrest a mother who had been sexually abusing her daughter on demand for paying viewers abroad.

    The rescue of the nine-year-old victim showed what serious cross-border intervention looks like.

    But for every headline-grabbing scandal, there are hundreds of untold stories.

    The Laos case should be the beginning of a broader reckoning with how sex, money and power move across borders – and who pays the price.

    Ming Gao receives funding from the Swedish Research Council. This research was produced with support from the Swedish Research Council grant “Moved Apart” (nr. 2022-01864). Ming Gao is a member of Lund University Profile Area: Human Rights.

    – ref. A rare, direct warning from Japan signals a shift in the fight against child sex tourism in Asia – https://theconversation.com/a-rare-direct-warning-from-japan-signals-a-shift-in-the-fight-against-child-sex-tourism-in-asia-261554

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: France is set to recognise the state of Palestine and the UK may follow – but what does it really mean?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Malak Benslama-Dabdoub, Lecturer in law, Royal Holloway University of London

    Emmanuel Macron’s pledge to formally recognise the state of Palestine will make France the first G7 country and member of the UN security council to do so. The question is whether others will follow suit. The UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, is coming under mounting pressure from many of his MPs, and has recalled his cabinet from their summer recess to discuss the situation in Gaza.

    Starmer is expected to announce a peace plan for the Middle East this week that will include British recognition of Palestinian statehood. Downing Street sources said recognition was a matter of “when, not if”.

    Recognition of statehood is not merely symbolic. The Montevideo convention of 1933 established several criteria which must apply before an entity can be recognised as a sovereign state. These are a permanent population, a defined territory, an effective government and the ability to conduct international relations.

    The process involves the establishment of formal diplomatic relations, including the opening of embassies, the exchange of ambassadors, and the signing of bilateral treaties. Recognition also grants the recognised state access to certain rights in international organisations. For Palestinians, such recognition will strengthen their claim to sovereignty and facilitate greater international support.

    Macron’s announcement was met with enthusiasm in many Arab capitals, as well as among Palestinian officials and supporters of the two-state solution. It was also praised by a number of European leaders as well as several journalists and other analysts as a long-overdue step toward a more balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

    However, the reaction from other major powers was swift and critical. The US called it “a reckless decision” while the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, said he “strongly condemned” it. Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, called it “counterproductive”.

    Within hours, it was clear that Macron’s announcement had both shifted diplomatic discourse and reignited longstanding divisions.

    France’s decision is significant. It signals a departure from the western consensus, long shaped by the US and the EU, that any recognition of Palestinian statehood must be deferred until after final-status negotiations. The move also highlights growing frustration in parts of Europe with the ongoing violence in Gaza and the failure of peace talks over the past two decades.

    Yet questions remain: what does this recognition actually entail? Will it change conditions on the ground for Palestinians? Or is it largely symbolic?

    So far, the French government has offered no details on whether this recognition will be accompanied by concrete measures. There has been no mention of sanctions on Israel, no indication of halting arms exports, no pledges of increased humanitarian aid or support for Palestinian governance institutions. France remains a key military and economic partner of Israel, and Macron’s announcement does not appear to alter that relationship.

    Nor is this the first time a western country has taken a symbolic stance in support of Palestinian statehood. Sweden recognised the state of Palestine in 2014, becoming the first western European country to do so. It was followed by Spain in 2024.

    However, both moves were largely symbolic and did not significantly alter the political or humanitarian situation on the ground. The risk is that recognition, without action, becomes a gesture that changes little.

    Macron’s statement also raised eyebrows for another reason: his emphasis on a “demilitarised Palestinian state” living side-by-side with Israel in peace and security. While such language is common in diplomatic discourse, it also reflects a deeper tension.

    Palestinians have long argued that their right to self-determination includes the right to defend themselves against occupation. Calls for demilitarisation are often seen by critics as reinforcing the status quo, where security concerns are framed almost exclusively in terms of Israeli needs.

    In the absence of a genuine political process, some analysts have warned that recognition of this kind risks formalising a state in name only – a fragmented, non-sovereign entity without control over its borders, resources or defence. Without guarantees of territorial continuity, an end to the expansion of Israeli settlements and freedom of movement, statehood may remain an abstract concept.

    What would meaningful support look like?

    If France wishes to go beyond symbolism, it has options. It could suspend arms exports to Israel or call for an independent international investigation into alleged war crimes. It could use its influence within the EU to push for greater accountability regarding illegal settlements and the blockade of Gaza. It could also support Palestinian institutions directly and engage with Palestinian civil society.

    Without such steps, recognition risks being viewed as a political message more than a policy shift. For Palestinians, the daily realities of occupation, displacement and blockade will not change with diplomatic announcements alone. What is needed, many argue, is not just recognition but support for justice, rights and meaningful sovereignty.

    France’s recognition of Palestine marks a shift in diplomatic tone and reflects broader unease with the status quo in the Middle East. It has stirred debate at home and abroad, and raised expectations among those hoping for more robust international engagement with the conflict.

    Whether this recognition leads to meaningful changes in policy or conditions on the ground remains to be seen. Much will depend on the steps France takes next – both at the United Nations and through its actions on trade, security and aid.

    Malak Benslama-Dabdoub does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. France is set to recognise the state of Palestine and the UK may follow – but what does it really mean? – https://theconversation.com/france-is-set-to-recognise-the-state-of-palestine-and-the-uk-may-follow-but-what-does-it-really-mean-262095

    MIL OSI –

  • The giant cuttlefish’s technicolour mating display is globally unique. The SA algal bloom could kill them all

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Zoe Doubleday, Marine Ecologist and ARC Future Fellow, University of South Australia

    Great Southern Reef Foundation, CC BY-SA

    Every year off the South Australian coast, giant Australian cuttlefish come together in huge numbers to breed. They put on a technicolour display of blue, purple, green, red and gold, changing hues as they mate and lay eggs.

    This dynamic, dreamlike display takes place in the upper Spencer Gulf, near Whyalla. This short strip of coastline is the only place in the world to host this spectacular event.

    But South Australia’s killer algal bloom is advancing towards this natural wonder. If the algae reach the breeding site in the coming weeks or months, they could wipe the cuttlefish population out.

    Now, scientists may have a chance to get there first, take some eggs and raise an insurance population in captivity. This rescue operation would be a world first.

    Why are the cuttlefish so vulnerable?

    The giant Australian cuttlefish congregate to mate in waters off Whyalla every winter, in a gathering known as a “breeding aggregation”. The sanctuary area received National Heritage status in 2023.

    The displays of movement and colour take place as abundant males vie for the attention of a female. Each year it attracts tourists, photographers and marine life enthusiasts. To witness it, all you need is a thick wetsuit, mask and snorkel.

    Cuttlefish are cephalopods, alongside octopus and squid. While cephalopods are adaptable to environmental change, their generations don’t overlap. This means the parents die before the offspring are born, and so the population cannot be replenished by the parents if the offspring are wiped out.

    By now, in upper Spencer Gulf, most adult cuttlefish will be breeding and naturally dying off, leaving the eggs behind. They will incubate for about three months, then hatch and swim away.

    What if the algal bloom reaches the cuttlefish?

    The harmful microalgal bloom of Karenia mikimotoi first appeared in March this year on two surf beaches outside Gulf St Vincent, about an hour south of Adelaide. It is thought to have been triggered by a persistent marine heatwave coupled with prolonged calm weather, and possibly excess nutrients from the 2022–23 Murray River flooding event.

    It has since spread to many corners of South Australia, and has now reached the lower to middle reaches of Spencer Gulf. Preliminary modelling revealed last week shows the bloom could spread through Spencer Gulf, up to Whyalla and across to Port Pirie.

    The disaster has already affected about 400 types of fish and marine animals. And we know this algal species can rapidly dispatch cephalopods, both large and small. In other parts of South Australia already affected by the algal bloom, dead octopus and cuttlefish have been extensively photographed and recorded.

    If the latest batch of eggs dies in the algal bloom, their parents will no longer be around to rebreed and restore the population next year. This means the population could go extinct.

    Could we lose a species?

    More than 100 cuttlefish species exist worldwide. The giant Australian cuttlefish is found throughout southern Australia, from Moreton Bay in Queensland to Ningaloo Reef in Western Australia.

    However, the breeding aggregation is genetically distinct from even its closest cuttlefish neighbours in southern Spencer Gulf, about 200 kilometres away. And genetic evidence suggests the upper Spencer Gulf population could well be its own species, although scientists haven’t confirmed this yet.

    Regardless, this cuttlefish population is truly unique. It is the only population of giant Australian cuttlefish, and the only population of cuttlefish worldwide, to breed en masse in such a spectacular fashion.

    That’s why saving it from the algal bloom is so important.

    Can we save this natural wonder?

    Today I’ll be meeting with fellow marine and cephalopod experts at an emergency meeting convened by the South Australian government. There, we will discuss the feasibility of collecting an insurance population of eggs from the cuttlefish population.

    Timing is everything. Two or three months from now, the eggs could be too developed to collect safely, because moving can trigger premature hatching. Even later, the eggs will have hatched and the hatchlings will have swum away.

    Ironically, while the mass gathering of cuttlefish makes the species vulnerable to a permanent wipeout, it also makes them easier to rescue.

    Collecting, transporting and raising eggs in tanks is a relatively straightforward process at a smaller scale. It has been done successfully for research purposes in South Australia.

    Raising hatchlings is harder and more labour intensive. Then there is the question of what to do with them once they hatch. But the three-month incubation period would buy us time.

    Author Zoe Doubleday makes her pitch for saving the giant Australian cuttlefish as the harmful algal bloom approaches (Biodiversity Council)

    The Conversation

    Zoe Doubleday receives funding from the Australian Research Council and is affiliated with the University of South Australia. She is also a Director of the Southern Ocean Discovery Centre and Board Member of the Aquaculture Tenure Allocation Board (Government of South Australia).

    – ref. The giant cuttlefish’s technicolour mating display is globally unique. The SA algal bloom could kill them all – https://theconversation.com/the-giant-cuttlefishs-technicolour-mating-display-is-globally-unique-the-sa-algal-bloom-could-kill-them-all-262108

  • Women’s rights in the US are in real danger of going back to 1965 – so Jessie Murph’s new song is no laughing matter

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Prudence Flowers, Senior Lecturer in US History, College of Humanities, Arts and Social Sciences, Flinders University

    Frazer Harrison/Getty Images for Stagecoach

    1965, a trending new song by TikTok sensation and country music rebel Jessie Murph, is prompting heated online conversation about the status of women in the United States.

    A retro sound and kitschy 1960s look mark the song and its confusingly pornographic (and age-restricted) music video. 1965 is muddled in its posturing, at turns sarcastic yet simultaneously conveying a wistfulness about the “simpler nature” of heterosexual romance in the 1960s.

    Amid the nods to Lana Del Rey and Amy Winehouse, perhaps the most striking aspect is Murph’s visual homage to Priscilla Presley, who began dating Elvis in 1959 when she was 14 years old.

    1965’s chorus has attracted particular controversy. Murph croons, in a lilting doo-wop style, about her willingness to “give up a few rights” for a man’s love and affection.

    In the US, where hard-won rights are currently under attack, 1965’s seeming fetishisation of submission and female powerlessness has angered many listeners. Murph has claimed the song is “satire” – but a look at the legal and social status of American women in 1965 highlights how misplaced this attempt at irony is.

    Women and the law in the US

    In 1963 and 1964, federal laws prohibited discrimination in relation to pay or civil rights. But the idea that women might participate fully and equally in society was largely seen as a joke.

    Federal and state governments, along with the private sector, had to be compelled through feminist action to take these rights seriously.

    Into the 1970s, sex discrimination in education and housing was legal. So was employment discrimination against pregnant women and women with young children.

    One visible sign reads 'Equal Pay For Equal Work,' while others reference 'Trainee Programs' and Women's and African-American Rights activist Sojouner Truth.
    A women’s equality march, Los Angeles, California, circa 1970.
    Baird Bryant/Getty Images

    Job advertisements were often sex segregated. Women only gained the right to have a credit card or mortgage in their own name in 1974.

    Sex, intimacy, relationships

    In the 1960s, reproductive rights and bodily autonomy were in their infancy.

    In 1965, married couples gained the right to contraception. This right was extended to unmarried people in 1972.

    Although a tiny number of states began repealing abortion laws in the late 1960s, death from illegal and unsafe abortions were a common occurrence until the Supreme Court’s Roe v. Wade decision of 1973.

    Banner reading 'Women in the schools demand free and legal abortion on demand, birth control information' featuring a raised fist in the circle of the female gender symbol, with placards reading 'Free abortions on demand now'.
    Protestors during a mass demonstration against New York State abortion laws in March 1970.
    Graphic House/Hulton Archive/Getty Images

    Between World War II and 1973, approximately 4 million pregnant unmarried mothers placed their children for adoption, many under duress, in a period now called the baby scoop era.

    Into the 1970s, Black, Latina and Indigenous women were coercively sterilised, often through eugenics programs.

    Divorce was only possible if one spouse could persuade a judge the other had committed cruelty, adultery or desertion. In 1969, California became the first state to legalise no-fault divorce.

    Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, feminists demanded that police and the courts stop treating domestic violence as a private matter. Only in 1993 was marital rape considered a crime in all state sexual offence codes.

    Even today, the overwhelming majority of perpetrators who commit rape or sexual assault will not face trial.

    Race and sexuality

    Although women’s suffrage was achieved in 1920, African Americans, Latinos and Native Americans were prevented from voting in many states by literacy tests, poll taxes and violence.

    In 1965, after decades of civil rights struggle, federal legislation prohibited racial discrimination in voting, expanding to protect non-English speaking citizens in 1975.

    A group of women, several of whom carry a 'Women's Liberation' banner
    The Free Bobby! Free Ericka! march was co-sponsored by the Black Panther Party and the Women’s Liberation Movement, held in Connecticut, November 1969.
    Bev Grant/Getty Images

    Until 1973, homosexuality was considered a sociopathic personality disorder that might necessitate psychiatric institutionalisation.

    In 2003, laws criminalising consensual same-sex activity were found unconstitutional. In 2015, same-sex marriage became legal nationwide.

    There are still no federal laws that protect LGBTQI+ people against discrimination in education, housing, employment or public accommodations.

    The personal is political

    Faced with immediate backlash, Murph has claimed the song is obviously satirical, asking “r yall stupid”.

    To Teen Vogue she insisted “On the record, I love having rights […] bodily rights specifically.”

    But for satire to work, it requires shared sets of knowledge, values and assumptions. The ironic posturing in 1965 is too muddled – lyrically and sonically – to be effective. Instead, for many it looks and sounds like just another celebration of restrictive gender politics.

    Online, many have compared Murph to a “tradwife”, the increasingly popular genre of social media influencer who make content romanticising homemaking, large families and submission to husbands.

    Tradwives are primarily white and offer a fantasy version of historical domesticity, often cosplaying a 1950s aesthetic. Some tradwives are overtly far right in their politics, others explicitly reject feminism and the “lie” of equality.



    Read more:
    Far-right ‘tradwives’ see feminism as evil. Their lifestyles push back against ‘the lie of equality’

    This vision of family and gender is echoed in contemporary Christian Nationalist and MAGA discourse.

    Project 2025, the 900-page conservative wish list for the Trump 2.0 administration, called for government to “replace ‘woke’ nonsense with a healthy vision” of family and sexuality, framed as heterosexual and patriarchal.

    The culture wars waged by Donald Trump and Republicans directly target rights relating to gender and sexuality.

    Since Roe v. Wade was overturned in 2022, 19 states now ban or restrict abortion.

    Trans rights are under sustained and devastating attack.

    Prominent conservative voices call for an end to no-fault divorce laws and same-sex marriage.
    Federal Republicans have opposed efforts to codify the right to contraception and in vitro fertilisation (IVF).

    The history of social movement activism is a history of struggle. Feminists, women of colour and LGBTQI+ movements fought against considerable resistance to establish rights that are now too often taken for granted.

    In this moment of conservative backlash, it is vital that we interrogate any move that frames rights as accessories in a costume rather than foundational to equality.

    The Conversation

    Prudence Flowers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Women’s rights in the US are in real danger of going back to 1965 – so Jessie Murph’s new song is no laughing matter – https://theconversation.com/womens-rights-in-the-us-are-in-real-danger-of-going-back-to-1965-so-jessie-murphs-new-song-is-no-laughing-matter-261862

  • How conspiracy theories about COVID’s origins are hampering our ability to prevent the next pandemic

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Edward C. Holmes, NHMRC Leadership Fellow and Professor of Virology, University of Sydney

    peterschreiber.media/Getty Images

    In late June, the Scientific Advisory Group for the Origins of Novel Pathogens (SAGO), a group of independent experts convened by the World Health Organization (WHO), published an assessment of the origins of COVID.

    The report concluded that although we don’t know conclusively where the virus that caused the pandemic came from:

    a zoonotic origin with spillover from animals to humans is currently considered the best supported hypothesis.

    SAGO did not find scientific evidence to support “a deliberate manipulation of the virus in a laboratory and subsequent biosafety breach”.

    This follows a series of reports and research papers since the early days of the pandemic that have reached similar conclusions: COVID most likely emerged from an infected animal at the Huanan market in Wuhan, and was not the result of a lab leak.

    But conspiracy theories about COVID’s origins persist. And this is hampering our ability to prevent the next pandemic.

    Attacks on our research

    As experts in the emergence of viruses, we published a peer-reviewed paper in Nature Medicine in 2020 on the origins of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID.

    Like SAGO, we evaluated several hypotheses for how a novel coronavirus could have emerged in Wuhan in late 2019. We concluded the virus very likely emerged through a natural spillover from animals – a “zoonosis” – caused by the unregulated wildlife trade in China.

    Since then, our paper has become a focal point of conspiracy theories and political attacks.

    The idea SARS-CoV-2 might have originated in a laboratory is not, in itself, a conspiracy theory. Like many scientists, we considered that possibility seriously. And we still do, although evidence hasn’t emerged to support it.

    But the public discourse around the origin of the pandemic has increasingly been shaped by political agendas and conspiratorial narratives. Some of this has targeted our work and vilified experts who have studied this question in a data-driven manner.

    A common conspiracy theory claims senior officials pressured us to promote the “preferred” hypothesis of a natural origin, while silencing the possibility of a lab leak. Some conspiracy theories even propose we were rewarded with grant funding in exchange.

    These narratives are false. They ignore, dismiss or misrepresent the extensive body of evidence on the origin of the pandemic. Instead, they rely on selective quoting from private discussions and a distorted portrayal of the scientific process and the motivations of scientists.

    So what does the evidence tell us?

    In the five years since our Nature Medicine paper, a substantial body of new evidence has emerged that has deepened our understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 most likely emerged through a natural spillover.

    In early 2020, the case for a zoonotic origin was already compelling. Much-discussed features of the virus are found in related coronaviruses and carry signatures of natural evolution. The genome of SARS-CoV-2 showed no signs of laboratory manipulation.

    The multi-billion-dollar wildlife trade and fur farming industry in China regularly moves high-risk animals, frequently infected with viruses, into dense urban centres.

    It’s believed that SARS-CoV-1, the virus responsible for the SARS outbreak, emerged this way in 2002 in China’s Guangdong province.

    Similarly, detailed analyses of epidemiological data show the earliest known COVID cases clustered around the Huanan live-animal market in Wuhan, in the Hubei province, in December 2019.

    Multiple independent data sources, including early hospitalisations, excess pneumonia deaths, antibody studies and infections among health-care workers indicate COVID first spread in the district where the market is located.

    In a 2022 study we and other experts showed that environmental samples positive for SARS-CoV-2 clustered in the section of the market where wildlife was sold.

    In a 2024 follow-up study we demonstrated those same samples contained genetic material from susceptible animals – including raccoon dogs and civets – on cages, carts, and other surfaces used to hold and transport them.

    This doesn’t prove infected animals were the source. But it’s precisely what we would expect if the market was where the virus first spilled over. And it’s contrary to what would be expected from a lab leak.

    These and all other independent lines of evidence point to the Huanan market as the early epicentre of the COVID pandemic.



    Read more:
    The COVID lab leak theory is dead. Here’s how we know the virus came from a Wuhan market

    Hindering preparedness for the next pandemic

    Speculation and conspiracy theories around the origin of COVID have undermined trust in science. The false balance between lab leak and zoonotic origin theories assigned by some commentators has added fuel to the conspiracy fire.

    This anti-science agenda, stemming in part from COVID origin conspiracy theories, is being used to help justify deep cuts to funding for biomedical research, public health and global aid. These areas are essential for pandemic preparedness.

    In the United States this has meant major cuts to the US Centers for Disease Control and the National Institutes of Health, the closure of the US Agency for International Development, and withdrawal from the WHO.

    Undermining trust in science and public health institutions also hinders the development and uptake of life-saving vaccines and other medical interventions. This leaves us more vulnerable to future pandemics.

    The amplification of conspiracy theories about the origin of COVID has promoted a dangerously flawed understanding of pandemic risk. The idea that a researcher discovered or engineered a pandemic virus, accidentally infected themselves, and unknowingly sparked a global outbreak (in exactly the type of setting where natural spillovers are known to occur) defies logic. It also detracts from the significant risk posed by the wildlife trade.

    In contrast, the evidence-based conclusion that the COVID pandemic most likely began with a virus jumping from animals to humans highlights the very real risk we increasingly face. This is how pandemics start, and it will happen again. But we’re dismantling our ability to stop it or prepare for it.

    The Conversation

    Edward C Holmes receives funding from the Australian Research Council and the National Health and Medical Research Council (Australia). He has received consultancy fees from Pfizer Australia and Moderna, and has previously held honorary appointments (for which he has received no renumeration and performed no duties) at the China CDC in Beijing and the Shanghai Public Health Clinical Center (Fudan University).

    Andrew Rambaut receives funding from The Wellcome Trust and the Gates Foundation.

    Kristian G. Andersen receives funding from the National Institutes of Health, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the Gates Foundation. He is on the Scientific Advisory Board of Invivyd, Inc. and has consulted on topics related to the COVID-19 pandemic and other infectious diseases.

    The views and opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of the author in their personal capacity and do not necessarily reflect the views, positions, or policies of Scripps Research, its leadership, faculty, staff, or its scientific collaborators or affiliates. Scripps Research does not endorse or take responsibility for any statements made in this piece.

    Robert Garry has received funding from the National Institutes of Health, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation, the Wellcome Trust Foundation, Gilead Sciences, and the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership Programme. He is a co-founder of Zalgen Labs, a biotechnology company developing countermeasures for emerging viruses.

    – ref. How conspiracy theories about COVID’s origins are hampering our ability to prevent the next pandemic – https://theconversation.com/how-conspiracy-theories-about-covids-origins-are-hampering-our-ability-to-prevent-the-next-pandemic-261475

  • UK to recognise Palestinian statehood unless Israel agrees to ceasefire – here’s what that would mean

    Source: ForeignAffairs4

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Malak Benslama-Dabdoub, Lecturer in law, Royal Holloway University of London

    The UK will formally recognise the state of Palestine in September unless Israel acts to end the “appalling situation” in Gaza. After an emergency cabinet meeting, Downing Street released a statement saying the UK would recognise Palestine unless Israel committed to a long-term sustainable peace, allowed the UN to restart humanitarian support, agreed to a ceasefire, and made clear there would be no annexations in the West Bank.

    The statement also reiterated the UK’s demand for Hamas to release all remaining Israeli hostages, accept a ceasefire, disarm and play no further part in the government of Gaza.

    The UK’s decision follows a pledge by French president Emmanuel Macron on July 24 to formally recognise Palestinian statehood statehood in September. If this is acted upon, France and the UK would be the first G7 members and the first members of the UN security council to recognise the state of Palestine.

    Recognition of statehood is not merely symbolic. The Montevideo convention of 1933 established several criteria which must apply before an entity can be recognised as a sovereign state. These are a permanent population, a defined territory, an effective government and the ability to conduct international relations.

    The process involves the establishment of formal diplomatic relations, including the opening of embassies, the exchange of ambassadors, and the signing of bilateral treaties. Recognition also grants the recognised state access to certain rights in international organisations. For Palestinians, such recognition will strengthen their claim to sovereignty and facilitate greater international support.

    This decision by France and the UK is significant. It signals a departure from the western consensus, long shaped by the US and the EU, that any recognition of Palestinian statehood must be deferred until after final-status negotiations. The move also highlights growing frustration in parts of Europe with the ongoing violence in Gaza and the failure of peace talks over the past two decades.

    Yet questions remain: what does this recognition actually entail? Will it change conditions on the ground for Palestinians? Or is it largely symbolic?

    So far, the French and British governments have offered no details on whether recognition would be accompanied by concrete measures. There has been no mention of sanctions on Israel, no indication of halting arms exports, no pledges of increased humanitarian aid or support for Palestinian governance institutions. France and the UK remain key military and economic partners of Israel, and the pledges do not appear to alter that relationship.

    Nor is this the first time western countries have taken a symbolic stance in support of Palestinian statehood. Sweden recognised the state of Palestine in 2014, becoming the first western European country to do so. It was followed by Spain in 2024.

    However, both moves were largely symbolic and did not significantly alter the political or humanitarian situation on the ground. The risk is that recognition, without action, becomes a gesture that changes little.

    Macron’s statement also raised eyebrows for another reason: his emphasis on a “demilitarised Palestinian state” living side-by-side with Israel in peace and security. While such language is common in diplomatic discourse, it also reflects a deeper tension.

    Palestinians have long argued that their right to self-determination includes the right to defend themselves against occupation. Calls for demilitarisation are often seen by critics as reinforcing the status quo, where security concerns are framed almost exclusively in terms of Israeli needs.

    In the absence of a genuine political process, some analysts have warned that recognition of this kind risks formalising a state in name only – a fragmented, non-sovereign entity without control over its borders, resources or defence. Without guarantees of territorial continuity, an end to the expansion of Israeli settlements and freedom of movement, statehood may remain an abstract concept.

    What would meaningful support look like?

    If the UK and France want to go beyond symbolism, they have options. They could suspend arms exports to Israel or call for an independent international investigation into alleged war crimes. They could use the influence on the world stage to push for greater accountability regarding illegal settlements and the blockade of Gaza. They could also support Palestinian institutions directly and engage with Palestinian civil society.

    Without such steps, recognition risks being viewed as a political message more than a policy shift. For Palestinians, the daily realities of occupation, displacement and blockade will not change with diplomatic announcements alone. What is needed, many argue, is not just recognition but support for justice, rights and meaningful sovereignty.

    The pledged recognition of Palestine by France and the UK marks a shift in diplomatic tone and reflects broader unease with the status quo in the Middle East. It has stirred debate at home and abroad, and raised expectations among those hoping for more robust international engagement with the conflict.

    Whether this recognition leads to meaningful changes in policy or conditions on the ground remains to be seen. Much will depend on the steps the UK and France take next – both at the United Nations and through their actions on trade, security and aid.

    This article has been updated to include the UK’s pledge to recognise Palestine as well as France’s.

    The Conversation

    Malak Benslama-Dabdoub does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. UK to recognise Palestinian statehood unless Israel agrees to ceasefire – here’s what that would mean – https://theconversation.com/uk-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood-unless-israel-agrees-to-ceasefire-heres-what-that-would-mean-262095

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: How do politicians view democracy? It depends on whether they win or lose

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Valere Gaspard, Research Fellow, Leadership and Democracy Lab, Western University

    There is a heightened concern about the current state of democracy around the globe. These include worries about a decrease in freedom, the growing number of autocracies around the world and citizens’ dissatisfaction with democracy or government.

    A 2022 survey of Canadians found that one-third have little to no trust in democracy and close to half don’t feel represented by government. These concerns aren’t unique to Canada.

    A lot of public opinion research on views about democracy focuses on citizens. Surely this is understandable, since they are the ones choosing who is in power in a democratic state.

    But what do the people in power or those running for office think about democracy? Surprisingly, for all the attention we place on politicians, we don’t know much about how they regard the democratic systems they operate in.

    Why it matters

    Why should we care about what politicians think about democracy? Because politicians can influence the views of citizens, and if they’re elected, they can affect or change democratic processes from within major institutions like legislatures.

    Therefore, to understand the contemporary health of democracies across the globe, we need to factor in politicians’ satisfaction with the way democracy works.

    While there are growing concerns about the current state of democracy around the globe, new open-access research I’ve conducted has hopeful findings, at least from the perspective of politicians. The analysis covers 49 elections in 21 countries — including Canada — from 2005 to 2021.

    The results show that politicians’ democratic satisfaction in a country will be higher when:

    • Elections in their country have high electoral integrity; in other words, when elections are free and fair
    • Electoral management bodies have sufficient resources to administer elections.

    This is good news from the perspective of maintaining a healthy democracy, since the people seeking the power of elected office are more satisfied when their democratic system is working well.

    But these findings become convoluted once we consider some attributes of politicians. Specifically, politicians’ democratic satisfaction begins to vary once we consider:

    • Whether their political party formed the government (winner) or is not part of government (loser)
    • Whether they identify with the ideological left or right.

    Winning and losing

    Nobody likes to lose, so it’s natural that a winner will be more satisfied with democracy.

    Although, the view that may be surprising — or troubling — is the extent to which politicians who won tolerate low electoral integrity, at least in terms of their democratic satisfaction.

    As illustrated above, when electoral integrity is low in a country, politicians who lose will be much less satisfied with democracy than winners. When electoral integrity is high, there is no noticeable difference between politicians that won or lost.

    The difference between winners’ and losers’ democratic satisfaction is problematic, but what is most troubling is that winners’ satisfaction with democracy does not significantly change across different levels of electoral integrity.

    When it comes to citizens, previous research has shown that when electoral integrity is low, democratic satisfaction among citizens will also be low, regardless of whether their preferred politician or political party won or lost.

    Politicians therefore differ from their citizen counterpart — those who won are much more tolerant of lower electoral integrity (at least in terms of their democratic satisfaction).

    In a stable democracy with free and fair elections, this might not matter much. However, if a country begins to experience democratic decline, then these attitudes could become detrimental.

    If politicians who win are not concerned with low electoral integrity, then they might lack the incentive needed to make necessary changes to electoral processes. Those concerned about electoral processes in these kinds of circumstances may therefore need to find alternative routes or incentives to encourage change.

    Left-to-right political ideology

    While the contrast between winners and losers may be discouraging, there are more similarities between those on the ideological left and right. Electoral management bodies having sufficient resources to administer elections matters to both leftist and rightist politicians in terms of their democratic satisfaction.

    However, as shown above, having sufficient resources to administer elections matters more to politicians on the ideological right. This may surprise some readers given past claims that right-leaning groups or people might advocate for more restrictive voting processes and laws.

    For those concerned with democratic stability, it’s promising to note that politicians across the ideological spectrum will generally be more satisfied with democracy when there are more resources to administer elections.



    Read more:
    Two of the US’s biggest newspapers have refused to endorse a presidential candidate. This is how democracy dies

    Overall, politicians on average tend to be more satisfied with democracy when it is working well — specifically, when elections are free and fair, and when electoral management bodies have the capacity to administer well-run elections. This is good news given concerns surrounding the current global state of democracy.

    However, policymakers and practitioners in Canada and abroad focusing on democratic stability and elections should take note of these findings. The attitudes of politicians in democratic countries may not be concerning when everything is working as intended, but if democratic processes begin to weaken or fail, the indifference of winners towards electoral integrity could be troublesome.

    At this moment of heightened concern about the current state of democracy around the globe, researchers and practitioners alike need to better understand the attitudes and motivations of the people who lead our systems of government.

    Valere Gaspard is a PhD candidate at the University of Ottawa and a Research Fellow at Western University and Trent University’s Leadership and Democracy Lab. His research is supported in part by funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (CGS Doctoral award). His views do not reflect those of any employer(s).

    – ref. How do politicians view democracy? It depends on whether they win or lose – https://theconversation.com/how-do-politicians-view-democracy-it-depends-on-whether-they-win-or-lose-261647

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Iranian Canadians watch the Israel-U.S. war in Iran from afar

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Fateme Ejaredar, PhD candidate in Sociology, University of Calgary, University of Calgary

    Iranian Canadians have been following the news in Iran carefully. Sadaf Vakilzadeh/Unsplash, CC BY

    The recent war waged by Israel and the United States on Iran killed at least 935 people and wounded another 5,332. There’s currently a ceasefire, but the conflict shocked the world and has had unique impacts on Iranians in the diaspora.

    Many Iranians in Canada were glued to their media feeds to stay close to Iran and their friends and families.

    Based on preliminary interviews with 30 Iranian activists in Canada, many in the diaspora have experienced what they call “survivor’s guilt.”

    The interviews are part of a PhD study conducted online or in person by one of the authors of this story, Fateme Ejaredar, and supervised by co-author Pallavi Banerjee. The information from these interviews helps to untangle the roots of political tensions and evolving solidarities in the Iranian diaspora in Canada. For this research, 30 interviews were conducted, with seven followups after the conflict began on June 13, 2025.

    A large share of the Iranian diaspora in Canada is comprised of activists who disavow the Islamic Republic. According to The New York Times, the Iranian diaspora includes “exiled leftists, nationalists, secular democrats, former prisoners, journalists, human rights advocates and artists.” This population of diasporic Iranians has been supporting progressive change in Iran.

    There are also those who oppose the Islamic Republic in support of the deposed shah, a movement currently swayed by Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran’s last shah. They see the U.S. and Israel as liberators of the Iranian people. The current war resurfaced many of these tensions that continue to divide the diaspora.

    The war has left Iranian activists in the diaspora contending with contradictions about both their standing as activists while mourning the assaults on their country, both from within and outside.

    Living in between homeland and hostland

    Canada has the second largest Iranian diaspora in the world. Iran’s tumultuous political climate has kept the diaspora on edge and divided since the 1979 revolution that deposed the shahs.

    After the revolution, many left-wing and other opposition activists who resisted both the pre- and post-revolutionary regimes went into exile. Continued political repression and economic hardship later forced even more Iranians, including activists, to leave the country. Strife peaked again in 2022 during the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests which deeply impacted the diaspora.

    Matin, a participant in her 30s from Alberta (all names of interviewees are pseudonyms), said:

    “I’m sad that my home is being bombed. And you don’t have the energy to argue in this situation. For a soul that’s already tired, its wounds from 2022 aren’t healed yet, it can’t go into this again. It’s a dead end.”



    Read more:
    Iranian women risk arrest: Daughters of the revolution

    Sociological research on migration and transnationalism has explained how those exiled from their homelands and living in diaspora reside in the “in-between lands.”

    This is heightened when the homeland is in a state of political disarray, producing what sociologists have called “exogenous shocks” for the diaspora.

    This is the unsettled feeling Iranians in the diaspora have been contending with for the last 45 years. They are constantly navigating life in between the homeland and hostland.

    Fragmented nationalism

    People’s fragmented sense of nationalism can shape responses to upheavals in the homeland.

    Many we spoke with struggle with their own interpretations of Iranian nationalism that clash with their disdain for the Islamic Republic. Their disdain is rooted in their own lived experiences under the regime — ranging from the loss of basic rights and freedoms, to harsh repression including imprisonment and torture for some, or simply an unfulfilled desire of living in a peaceful and free society.

    Vida, an interviewee in her 30s who lives in Saskatchewan, said even though she despised the politics of the Islamic Republic and in the past had celebrated the death of key officials like Qasem Soleimani, the recent war has invoked some conflicting feelings about the death of military leaders.

    She took pride in solidarities forged among the diaspora due to the war and interpreted it as nationalism. Vida said:

    “I never was a nationalist, and I hate nationalism. But there were moments these days that I felt proud. Seeing all the solidarity between people, seeing how they helped each other…”

    Even as the activists feel protective of their country because of the war, they also experience a deep sense of loss and guilt they have always felt in exile.

    Tensions in the diaspora

    Iran’s relationship with the West has continued to be fraught.

    The West, particularly the U.S., has leveraged Iran’s repression of women to economically disable Iran through sanctions, breaking down possibilities of diplomacy between Iran and the U.S. But feminist scholars have argued this stance has only further empowered the authoritarian and patriarchal political forces in Iran..

    Iranian activists in the diaspora contend with both resisting the Islamic Republic’s role in oppression of Iranians in Iran and the American role in marginalizing Iranians in Iran.

    The ‘Iran of our dreams’

    The in-between spaces are precarious and unpredictable. But they also bring new possibilities and in this case, as many interviewees have indicated, acts of resistance from afar.

    This can be further activated in moments of upheaval. And those living in the in-between spaces can often form new alliances and solidarities.

    For many activist Iranians, the resistance in Palestine has been a source of inspiration since before the revolution of 1979. Many participants in this study mentioned in their interviews how they have long felt solidarity with Palestinians, but they say since June 13, they have an even deeper understanding of their situation.

    Zara, in her 40s from Ontario, said she now understands more deeply how the world could be indifferent towards those critiquing the actions of Israel, saying she feels:

    “… a sense of helplessness and desperation against all that illogical violent power.”

    Despite the desolation expressed by our interviewees about the war, many activists also expressed faith in resistance for freedom and justice that allows them to envision a different future.

    Jamshid, in his 60s in British Columbia, shared his future vision of Iran. It is:

    “ … an Iran that lives in peace. There is social justice in it and no one is injured. It takes care of itself. It’s very kind, immensely kind… Maybe one day it will happen and we’re not here to see it.”

    Pallavi Banerjee receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

    Fateme Ejaredar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Iranian Canadians watch the Israel-U.S. war in Iran from afar – https://theconversation.com/iranian-canadians-watch-the-israel-u-s-war-in-iran-from-afar-259866

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: Women’s rugby is booming, but safety relies on borrowed assumptions from the men’s game

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Kathryn Dane, Postdoctoral associate, University of Calgary

    Rugby union, commonly known as just rugby, is a fast-paced and physical team sport. More girls and women in Canada and around the world are playing it now than ever before.

    As of 2021, women’s rugby reached a record 2.7 million players globally, a 25 per cent increase over four years, and by 2023, women’s rugby participation was growing at a rate of 38 per cent year-over-year.

    Countries including Australia, England, Ireland and the United States offer professional contracts for women’s teams. While these remain modest compared to the men’s game, they still represent a clear step forward.

    Canada’s senior women’s XVs team is currently ranked second in the world and heading into the 2025 Rugby World Cup, which kicks off on Aug. 22 in England. The national sevens team also captured silver at the 2024 Paris Olympics — further evidence of the game’s growing competitiveness in Canada.

    However, many systems, including coaching and medical support, have not kept pace with the demands of elite competition. With visibility increasing ahead of the 2025 World Cup, stronger institutional support is needed to match the sports’ growing professionalism and popularity.

    Safety concerns

    Often described as a “game for all”, rugby builds confidence, resilience and lifelong friendships. For girls and women especially, rugby can be empowering in ways few sports can match. It embraces the physicality of tackling, pushes back against traditional gender expectations and fosters solidarity and inclusion by valuing all body shapes and abilities.

    But rugby is also a collision sport, and as such, it carries inherent risks. Tackling is the top cause of injury in rugby, and it has one of the highest concussion rates among youth girls’ sports in Canada. Concussions can have long-term effects on players’ health.



    Read more:
    Concussion is more than sports injuries: Who’s at risk and how Canadian researchers are seeking better diagnostics and treatments

    These concerns are especially urgent as the women’s game becomes more physical and professionalized, and players are hit harder and more often. Unlike men’s rugby, women’s teams often operate with fewer medical or coaching support resources, which can lead to inconsistent or absent injury prevention programs.

    Compounding the risk is the fact that many women also come to rugby later in life, often with less experience in contact sports. This delayed exposure restricts proper tackle skill development and player confidence in contact. This means safe tackling is even more important.

    Without proper supports, the physical risks of the game may outweigh its benefits.

    Science is still playing catch-up

    While women’s rugby is growing rapidly, the science behind it is has not kept pace. Most of what we know about rugby safety — how to tackle, how much to train or when it’s safe to return to play after injury — largely comes from research on men.

    Decisions around coaching and player welfare have been based on male data, leaving female players under-served and potentially at greater risk. While these foundations may well apply to girls and women, the problem is we don’t yet know for sure.

    Only four per cent of rugby tackle research has focused on women. Much of the early evidence on girls rugby comes from Canada, underscoring the country’s leadership in this space. Still, most coaches and clinicians rely on a “one-size-fits-all” approach that may not account for menstrual cycles, pregnancy, different injury profiles or later sport entry.

    The differences matter because strength, speed and injury risk all vary. Women are 2.6 times more likely than men to sustain a concussion. Gender also shapes access to training, care and facilities, often limiting opportunities for women to develop safe tackling skills, receive adequate support and train in safe, well-resourced environments, factors that impact both performance and safety.



    Read more:
    Prevention is better than cure when it comes to high concussion rates in girls’ rugby

    Even safety tools reflect this gap. World Rugby’s Tackle Ready and contact load guidelines were designed around male athletes. While well-intentioned, we know little about how they work for girls and women. Instead of discarding these tools, we need to adapt and evaluate them in female contexts to ensure they support injury prevention and provide equal protection.

    Women’s rugby needs better data

    Change is underway. More research and tools are being designed specifically for girls and women. A search of PubMed, a database of published biomedical research, reveals a steep rise in studies on women’s rugby over the past decade, especially in injury surveillance, injury prevention, performance, physiology and sociocultural contexts.

    New rule trials, such as testing lower tackle heights, are being evaluated on women athletes. New technologies like instrumented mouthguards and video analysis are also helping researchers understand how girls and women tackle, how head impacts happen and how they can be prevented.

    Much of this new research is led by our team at the Sport Injury Prevention Research Centre, a pan-Canadian, multidisciplinary group focused on moving upstream to prevent concussions in adolescent girls’ rugby.

    The women’s game is also driving its own innovations. Resources like World Rugby’s Contact Confident help girls and women safely build tackle skills, particularly those new to contact sport.

    Researchers are analyzing injury patterns, interviewing players and coaches and studying return-to-play pathways that reflect girls’ and women’s physiology and life stages.

    The scope of research is also expanding to pelvic health, breast protection and more tailored injury prevention. Global collaboration is making this work more inclusive, spanning different countries, skill levels and age groups, not just elite competitions.

    But this is just the start.

    A golden opportunity lies ahead

    Girls’ and women’s rugby is experiencing unprecedented growth. Rising participation, media attention and new sponsorships are fuelling momentum. It’s a golden opportunity to build strong, sustainable foundations.

    Gold-standard support requires focused, ongoing research and a commitment to sharing that evidence with players, coaches, health-care providers and policymakers. It’s time to build systems for women’s rugby based on women’s data, not borrowed assumptions from the men’s game.

    But challenges remain. Some national teams still have to raise funds to attend World Cups. Others train without consistent access to medical or performance staff — clear signs that the women’s game is still catching up.

    To sustain and accelerate the growth of girls’ and women’s rugby, the sport deserves more resources and research tailored specifically to participants. A “one-size-fits-all” model no longer works. By investing in systems that are safer, focused on prevention, more inclusive and grounded in evidence, we can build a thriving future for women’s rugby that lasts for generations to come.

    Isla Shill has received funding from World Rugby.

    Stephen West has previously received funding from World Rugby

    Kathryn Dane does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Women’s rugby is booming, but safety relies on borrowed assumptions from the men’s game – https://theconversation.com/womens-rugby-is-booming-but-safety-relies-on-borrowed-assumptions-from-the-mens-game-261055

    MIL OSI –

  • MIL-OSI Submissions: How Marvel’s Fantastic Four discovered the human in the superhuman

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By J. Andrew Deman, Professor of English, University of Waterloo

    The Fantastic Four: First Steps is the second cinematic reboot of the Fantastic Four franchise, and there’s a lot riding on this film.

    While cinema-goers have responded enthusiastically to many of the films in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, the history of the Fantastic Four on the silver screen is less heralded.

    All the previous Fantastic Four films have been “commercial and critical failures,” with the 2015 film being an infamous box office bomb.

    Yet in comics history, the Fantastic Four have been up to the challenge of driving a popular media enterprise forward — something that the film producers and Marvel fans alike are both now hoping for.

    ‘The Fantastic Four: First Steps’ trailer.

    In the 1960s — the era in which Fantastic Four: First Steps, is notably set — the comics presented a new class of superhero.

    From their 1961 debut, Reed Richards/Mr. Fantastic, Sue Storm/the Invisible Girl, Johnny Storm/the Human Torch and Ben Grimm/the Thing were celebrities who rented office space in a Manhattan highrise and found themselves variously beloved and reviled by both the public and the government.

    Cover of ‘The Fantastic Four’ No. 1, 1961.
    (Marvel)

    The team also rejected secret identities. Until the third issue of their series, they even eschewed superhero costumes (in part because of a restriction imposed by the owner of Marvel’s then-distributor, DC Comics).

    Pushed representational boundaries

    The Fantastic Four comics of the 1960s also pushed boundaries in a number of significant ways. They featured the first pair of married superheroes (Reed and Sue wed in 1965) and the first superhero pregnancy (Sue gave birth to her son Franklin in 1968).

    In 1966, Fantastic Four No. 52 introduced the Black Panther, who is widely recognized as the first high-profile Black superhero.



    Read more:
    *Black Panther* roars. Are we listening?

    And though not canonical until 2002, it has been suggested by scholars that Ben Grimm was always envisioned as a Jewish superhero by Stan Lee and Jack Kirby, offering another milestone in representation (at least for those readers attuned to the character’s Jewish coding).

    These milestones emphasize a dedicated concern for the human aspects of superheroes.

    A family with relatable issues

    Set amid fittingly fantastic science-fiction landscapes inspired by Space Age optimism was a story about a family who “fought among themselves, sometimes over petty jealousies and insults,” in the words of Christopher Pizzino, an American scholar of contemporary literature, film and television.

    This approach of building character dynamics out of internal conflict proved deeply influential.

    Famed comics writer Grant Morrison argues that through the example of Fantastic Four, “the Marvel superhero was born: a hero who tussled not only with monsters and mad scientists but also with relatable personal issues.”

    In his bestselling book All the Marvels, comics critic and historian Douglas Wolk concurs that the “first hundred issues of Fantastic Four are Marvel’s Bible and manual,” establishing the style, theme, genre and approach of the company’s comics for decades to come.

    Marvel’s universe continued to expand following the Fantastic Four debut.
    (Marvel)

    Defining personal conflicts

    In contrast to moral paragons such as Superman, Batman and Wonder Woman (all published by rival DC Comics), each member of Marvel’s Fantastic Four had defining personal conflicts.

    Reed Richards, the team’s patriarch, was a world-altering genius who often fell victim to his own hubristic ambition.

    Two years before American feminist author Betty Friedan identified “the problem that has no name” in The Feminine Mystique (that post-war suburban housewives faced social expectations of being fully fulfilled as wives and mothers, the Fantastic Four gave audiences Sue Storm, with the superpower to render herself — and others — invisible at will.

    Storm, according to scholar Ramzi Fawaz, “made the concept of women’s social invisibility an object of visual critique by making invisible bodies and objects conspicuous on the comic book page.”

    Her younger brother, Johnny Storm, a playboy and showboat, had a lot of growing up to do, a journey that was frustrated by his flashy powers.

    Ben Grimm, Reed’s college roommate turned best friend turned rock monster, oscillated between childlike rage and world-weary depression, his rocky hide granting him super-strength and invulnerability while burdening him with social isolation.

    While none of us are likely to acquire superpowers through exposure to cosmic rays like the Four, we’ve all dealt with anxiety and grief like these heroes.

    Origin of the Marvel universe

    The world of the Fantastic Four didn’t just feel unusually human. It also felt unusually lived in, partly because the Fantastic Four comics of the 1960s weren’t just the origin of the Marvel style of storytelling — they were also the origin of the Marvel universe.

    Fantastic Four began and became the model for Marvel’s shared continuity universe, in which dozens of superheroes passed in and out of each other’s stories and occasionally intersected long enough for whole crossover story arcs and events. For a time, Marvel’s superheroes even aged alongside their readers, with teenage characters like Johnny Storm graduating high school and enrolling in college.

    Previous superhero comics hadn’t embraced this shared continuity in a meaningful way, tending to prioritize discrete stories that had no effect on future tales. But Fantastic Four pitched what comics scholar Charles Hatfield calls “intertitle continuity,” which quickly became “Marvel’s main selling tool.”

    Case in point, the Fantastic Four shared the cover of 1963’s Amazing Spider-Man No. 1, helping sell the newly created wall-crawler to their adoring readers.

    Voluminous, chaotic universe

    The 1965 wedding of Reed and Sue in Fantastic Four Annual No. 3 showcased how quickly the Marvel comics universe became vibrantly voluminous and charmingly chaotic.

    This event featured at least 19 superheroes fighting 28 supervillains and foregrounded the Fantastic Four’s symbolic mother and father as the progenitors of an extended super-family.

    It also featured a cameo by the Fantastic Four’s creators, Stan Lee and Jack Kirby, previously introduced in 1963’s Fantastic Four No. 10 as the official creators of imaginary adventures starring the “real” Fantastic Four, further blurring the boundary between fiction and reality.

    Decades later, this sprawling comics universe would become a sprawling cinematic universe. This informs the pressure facing the latest Fantastic Four adaptation.

    Phase 6 of universe

    Fantastic Four: First Steps marks the start of what Marvel calls “Phase Six” of the Marvel Cinematic Universe, which began in 2008 with the first Marvel Studios film, Iron Man.

    Essentially, Fantastic Four: First Steps is meant to launch a new cluster of shared universe stories, just as Fantastic Four No. 1 did for Marvel Comics in the 1960s.

    This cluster will culminate in the release of Avengers: Secret Wars in December 2027. Will Marvel’s first family deliver?

    This article is co-authored by Anna Peppard, an independent scholar and editor of ‘Supersex: Sexuality, Fantasy, and the Superhero.’

    J. Andrew Deman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Marvel’s Fantastic Four discovered the human in the superhuman – https://theconversation.com/how-marvels-fantastic-four-discovered-the-human-in-the-superhuman-260883

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  • MIL-OSI Submissions: There’s enough natural hydrogen in the Earth’s crust to help power the green energy transition

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Omid Haeri Ardakani, Research scientist at Natural Resources Canada; Andjunct associate professor, University of Calgary

    Since their formation billions of years ago, the oldest parts of the Earth’s continental rocks have generated natural hydrogen in massive amounts. Some of this hydrogen may have accumulated within accessible traps and reservoirs under the Earth’s surface. This store has the potential to contribute to the global hydrogen economy for hundreds of years.

    This has been demonstrated by the production of near-pure hydrogen from a single gas field in Mali, attracting the attention of governments in the United States, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom and Europe.

    There is also interest from major venture capital investors and international resource companies. By the end of 2023, 40 companies were exploring natural hydrogen globally. That has likely doubled since 2024.



    Read more:
    Why green hydrogen — but not grey — could help solve climate change

    Hydrogen as a resource

    Hydrogen resources have long been a multi-billion-dollar market, even before recent interest in hydrogen as a contributor to the green energy transition. The environments and conditions that result in natural hydrogen accumulation occur globally. But one of the barriers to investment in many jurisdictions is regulatory, as hydrogen had not previously been considered as a resource.

    Natural hydrogen can be used to decarbonize hard-to-abate but globally critical industries. Industries that use hydrogen include fuel refining (about 44 per cent), ammonia and fertilizer production for food sustainability (about 34 per cent), and steel manufacturing (about five per cent).

    According to a recent British government policy briefing document, addressing this requires governments to include hydrogen as a listed natural resource. Future uses for hydrogen may include long-distance transportation and contributions to the decarbonization of the mining industry.

    High carbon footprint

    Most of the hydrogen used today is produced from fossil fuels. Because of this, hydrogen production contributes about 2.5 per cent of global carbon dioxide emissions. Efforts to produce low-carbon (green) hydrogen from renewable electricity and carbon capture and storage technologies remain expensive.

    Natural hydrogen has a carbon footprint comparable to or below that of green hydrogen. The two will likely be complementary, but estimates are uncertain as natural hydrogen is as yet an unproven resource.

    Developing strategies could determine whether hydrogen from any source is an economically viable resource. For natural hydrogen, exploration strategies have to be developed to find and extract natural deposits of hydrogen at an economically feasible cost. This also needs incentives that include natural hydrogen in exploration or production licenses.



    Read more:
    New plan shows Australia’s hydrogen dream is still alive. But are we betting on the right projects?

    Hydrogen and helium

    The U.S. Geological Survey recently estimated there’s enough accessible natural hydrogen to supply global hydrogen demand for about 200 years.

    Hydrogen forms in the Earth’s crust through two natural geological processes: chemical reactions between natural groundwaters and iron-rich minerals and water radiolysis. Water molecules are broken by natural background radioactivity in rocks releasing hydrogen — and helium, a valuable element included in Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy — as a byproduct.

    The search for helium began in Canada in the 1920s, but it is only recently that systematic commercial exploration for helium has restarted. By the 1980s, systematic studies of natural hydrogen began in Canada, Finland and parts of Africa as part of research on subsurface microbial life.

    Renewed interest

    An unusual coincidence sparked the current global interest in hydrogen. An accidental discovery of the small natural hydrogen gas field in Mali coincided with the publication of extensive historical data from the former Soviet Union, drawing attention to hydrogen’s immense potential as a clean power resource. Australia, France and the U.S. were among the first countries to re-investigate historical natural hydrogen.

    Natural hydrogen and helium systems have similarities to petroleum systems, requiring a source rock, a migration pathway and accumulation in a reservoir. The infrastructure for natural hydrogen wells would be comparable to hydrocarbon wells, albeit with changes in well completion and drilling methods.

    The footprint of a natural hydrogen production project would take up much less space to deliver the same amount of energy compared to a green hydrogen production facility, which requires solar or wind farms and electrolyzers.

    Similarly, natural hydrogen projects do not need to draw on surface water resources, which are scarce in many parts of the world.

    Surface release of hydrogen bubbles from the Canadian Shield.
    (Stable Isotope Lab/University of Toronto), CC BY

    Future policies

    Some jurisdictions lack policies regulating hydrogen exploration. In others, regulation falls under existing mining or hydrocarbon policies. The lack of clear regulations in areas with high potential for natural hydrogen exploration — such as the U.S., Canada, India and parts of Africa and Europe — is a major obstacle for exploration.

    An absence of regulation slows down exploration and land acquisition, and prevents the decision-making required for developing infrastructure. And critically, it means that no community consultations are undertaken to ensure the social acceptance essential for the success of such projects.

    A project in South Australia demonstrates what legislation can accomplish. Once regulation of natural hydrogen exploration and capture was implemented, the government received dozens of applications from companies interested in natural hydrogen exploration.

    The appetite for exploration is clearly there, but policy and regulatory solutions are required. New exploration projects will provide critical new data to understand natural hydrogen’s potential to provide green energy.

    Omid Haeri Ardakani has received funding from Natural Resources Canada (NRCan).

    Barbara Sherwood Lollar receives funding from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Nuclear Waste Management Organization.

    Chris Ballentine is founder of and owns shares in Snowfox Discovery Ltd, a hydrogen exploration company. He receives research funding from the Natural Environment Research Council (U.K.) and the National Science Foundation (U.S.), in a joint grant, as well as the Canadian Nuclear Waste Management Organization and the Canadian Institute For Advanced Research.

    – ref. There’s enough natural hydrogen in the Earth’s crust to help power the green energy transition – https://theconversation.com/theres-enough-natural-hydrogen-in-the-earths-crust-to-help-power-the-green-energy-transition-256936

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