Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Mohamed Okash, Founding Director, Institute of Climate and Environment, Simad University
In the sun-scorched lands of Somalia, farmers and livestock keepers have grown accustomed to the extremes of climate. In 2022, for example, the country suffered the longest drought in 40 years. This affected nearly half the national population of 18 million people. The following year, heavy and widespread flooding devastated the country’s farmlands and infrastructure.
For a country whose economy breathes through its agriculture and livestock sectors, these extremes have adverse implications. Over 70% of the population relies on farming, herding and pastoral activities for their livelihoods. Despite these climatic shocks, agriculture contributes about 60% of Somalia’s GDP. This is down slightly from 65% two decades ago.
The agricultural sector is diverse, yet fragile. It is made up of two primary components: crop cultivation (mainly sorghum, maize, sesame and fruit) and livestock rearing (camels, goats, sheep and cattle).
Somalia’s strongest export offerings have included livestock and animal products, such as hides and skins, along with sesame seeds, bananas and charcoal.
Livestock has been the cornerstone of exports for decades. It experienced strong growth from the early 2000s through the mid-2010s, but faced notable declines after 2017. This was a result of droughts, disease outbreaks and market disruptions. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman are among Somalia’s biggest trading partners.
Apart from extremes of climate, the agricultural sector continues to be affected by political instability and conflict. Some of this conflict stems from disputes over water and land. These are common, particularly during times of drought, when competition for natural resources sparks conflict between settled and nomadic pastoralists.
We are development researchers focused on the intersection of climatic vulnerability, conflict and economic resilience in fragile states. Our recent study set out to examine how the combined effects of climate change and conflict are shaping the country’s trade in agricultural and livestock products. We did this by analysing three decades (1985–2017). We analysed the long-term relationship between environmental stress, conflict events and the country’s export performance in key agricultural sectors.
We found that erratic rainfall, rising temperatures and conflict have significantly constrained Somalia’s agricultural and livestock export performance over the past decade. While exports have not collapsed entirely, their growth trajectory has been repeatedly disrupted.
Livestock exports, for instance, peaked in 2015–2016 at over US$530 million, but have since declined due to recurrent droughts, internal conflict and trade restrictions, including a partial import ban by Saudi Arabia in 2016.
Our analysis confirms that a 1% rise in average temperature reduces agricultural exports by approximately 8.37%. Further, a single-unit increase in internal conflict correlates with a 0.13–0.16% drop in both livestock and crop exports in the long run.
Although average rainfall boosts exports when available, its unpredictability creates volatility in both the short and long term. The study found that climatic shocks and ongoing conflict are deeply hurting Somalia’s agriculture and livestock exports.
What the data says
Our analysis, based on export figures, climate records and conflict datasets (including some from the World Bank), reveals a clear pattern: export performance rises with rainfall and declines with both rising temperatures and internal conflict.
Banana and sorghum production have dropped by over 50% in some regions since the 1990s. Once a key export crop, bananas have nearly disappeared from Somalia’s export portfolio. Sesame remains a strong export, but yields are becoming more unpredictable.
Heat stress, compounded by water scarcity, has reduced soil fertility and shortened growing seasons. Maize and groundnuts have been especially affected, with yields declining by up to 40% in recent drought years.
Many of these crops were once sold in regional markets. They are now primarily consumed locally – or not grown at all.
Overall, our research showed that Somalia’s competitiveness in global markets has weakened considerably. Livestock exports fell sharply during drought years, particularly 2011 and 2017.
At the same time, Somalia has started importing basic food items such as maize and flour, which it used to grow domestically. This dependency is both economically and nutritionally dangerous.
Falling production and exports
Our analysis shows that internal conflict significantly reduces both agricultural and livestock exports in the long run. It does so by limiting market access and closing vital export corridors.
This leads to a reliance on circuitous indirect trade routes through adjacent countries at the expense of the export economy. For example, livestock from southern Somalia can no longer reach key export ports due to insecurity.
Violence over resources – especially water and land – frequently flares up in the central and northern rangelands between agro-pastoralists and nomadic herders. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, between 2012 and 2023, conflict alone forced more than 1.6 million people from their homes. In some of the worst years, like 2017 and 2021, over 400,000 people were displaced from their communities.
The conflict has displaced rural populations. It has also fractured governance systems and access to international markets, making it harder for Somalia’s farmers and herders to survive.
Extreme droughts and floods have had a severe impact on yields.
When the rains are good, exports rise. But those rains are now unpredictable. Erratic precipitation patterns and higher temperatures have led to decreased crop yields and hampered livestock production. This is challenging the nation’s ability to sustain exports.
What needs to be done
In response to the challenges posed by climate change and conflicts over agricultural and livestock exports, Somalia needs strategic policy measures.
First, Somalia should broaden the range of products it exports. Diversification reduces the country’s vulnerability to fluctuations in the market for specific goods. It also minimises risks associated with climate-related and conflict-induced disruptions, and enhances overall economic resilience.
Second, the country must resolve internal conflicts which disrupt farming operations and displace rural communities.
Third, the authorities should facilitate market access. Establishing export processing zones can help meet global quality standards. This would reduce the reliance on intermediaries and ensure that producers receive a fair share of profits.
Finally, measures need to be taken to mitigate the impact of climate change on agriculture. The government needs to invest in climate-resilient farming systems, promoting sustainable agricultural practices and supporting farmers in adapting to changing climatic conditions. This adaptation should include:
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irrigation systems to reduce dependence on erratic rainfall
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drought-resistant and heat-tolerant crop varieties
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research, skills building and extension services to support local communities
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integrated pest management and sustainable land and soil management.
For Somalia, investing in agricultural exports is not merely an economic imperative. It is a development challenge that demands a multifaceted approach encompassing climate resilience, institutional strengthening and inclusive economic growth.
– Somalia’s exports are threatened by climate change and conflict: what 30 years of data tell us
– https://theconversation.com/somalias-exports-are-threatened-by-climate-change-and-conflict-what-30-years-of-data-tell-us-254146
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