Category: Natural Disasters

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Salford and Manchester present draft proposals for major Strangeways and Cambridge regeneration

    Source: City of Salford

    Salford City Council (SCC)  and Manchester City Council (MCC) are working in collaboration on the ambitious long-term regeneration proposals for the Strangeways and Cambridge areas ahead of public consultation.

    The draft Strategic Regeneration Framework (SRF) reports will be heard by both Councils’ respective executive and cabinet committees outlining the vision that will guide widescale investment and development across the 130 hectare city fringe location over the coming decades.

    The draft Strangeways and Cambridge SRF presents a high-level vision for the area, building on the work of the Operation Vulcan policing operation, to provide a platform for legitimate businesses to grow and thrive, alongside a major new urban park, significant new housing – including affordable homes – and significant commercial and employment opportunities.   

    The programme of investment estimates the combined development areas could see up to 7,000 new homes across seven distinct ‘neighbourhood’ areas, increased commercial floorspace of around 1.75m sqft, and the regeneration could support an additional 4,500 jobs.   

    The draft SRF presents a development approach that will support Manchester’s target to become a zero-carbon city by 2038 and reacts to other environmental factors in the areas, including potential flooding linked to climate change.    

    The SRF also reflects how HM Prison Manchester – formerly Strangeways Prison – remains a significant barrier to the regeneration ambitions in this part of the city and the framework will act as an engagement tool with the Ministry of Justice around the long-term future of the prison.  

    The key themes of the SRF include:  

    • Business and employment: Increase business and employment opportunities – supporting ongoing economic growth in both Manchester and Salford 
    • Green and blue infrastructure: Create a network of green spaces and celebrate the River Irwell – including the creation of a large new city centre park (working title: Copper Park) – and respond to flood risk  
    • Movement: Prioritise a ‘people first’ approach to the regeneration, including active travel while carefully managing parking, servicing and delivery requirements.   
    • Heritage and culture: Celebrate the existing architecture and heritage buildings in the area as part of the comprehensive regeneration plans. 

    Salford City Mayor, Paul Dennett added: “We’ve been on a journey of growth and regeneration in recent years, and our work has changed the landscape in different parts of Salford for the benefit of our residents. It’s now time to focus on the Cambridge area and working with colleagues in Manchester, this framework provides us with a once in a lifetime opportunity to do that. 

    “This framework proposes options for the Salford part of the SRF, taking into account the requirements of residents and local businesses, and the need for quality housing in the area. The key will be to balance these needs with what the long-term flood data is telling us and how we future-proof the area against climate change. 

    “The proposals in the framework seek to identify the best possible options for this area. These include the exciting opportunity to create a new city park for all, with an option for appropriate levels of mixed-use development, to continue to drive sustainable growth. 

    “I’d urge everyone with a vested interest in this area, whether you’re a resident or business to engage with the consultation process and work with us help shape the future of this part of the city.” 

    Leader of the Council Bev Craig said: “This framework is our shared long-term vision, alongside our colleagues in Salford, to deliver a transformation in the Strangeways and Cambridge communities. 

    “We have an opportunity to create a platform for development and investment, enabled by the successful work carried out by the Operation Vulcan partnership, to support businesses to grow and prosper in these neighbourhoods – creating thousands of new jobs and support the ongoing growth of our city – alongside a major new public park and new homes, including Council, social and genuinely affordable housing. 

    “We know this area has challenges, including the prison that presents a key barrier to the regeneration of the area, but we also know that there is energy and a community brimming with potential. 

    “We will deliver huge change in Strangeways in the coming years, working alongside the people who live and work there, and as we move to consultation in the coming weeks, we want to speak to local people and businesses about how we can make this part of the city thrive.” 
     
    This  draft Strangeways and Cambridge SRF document has been prepared on behalf of MCC and SCC by Avison Young with Maccreanor Lavington Architects, Feilden Clegg Bradley Studios, Schulze+Grassov, Civic Engineers, Useful Projects and PLACED
     
    Salford’s Cabinet will meet on Tuesday 11 March.  
    Find the Salford City Council Cabinet Report   

    Manchester’s executive will meet on Friday 14 March. 
    Find the Manchester City Council Executive Report – available from Thursday 6 March  
      
    Following the respective Council approvals, consultation around the SRF document will begin at the end of March, the results of which will be reported to future Executive and Cabinet meetings.   

    Further information will be made available shortly at www.strangewaysandcambridgeSRF.info  

    The draft SRF was in part delivered using Government Funding.

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    Date published
    Thursday 6 March 2025

    Press and media enquiries

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Manchester and Salford present draft proposals for major Strangeways and Cambridge regeneration

    Source: City of Manchester

    Manchester City Council (MCC) and Salford City Council (SCC) are working in collaboration on the ambitious long-term regeneration proposals for the Strangeways and Cambridge areas.

    The draft Strategic Regeneration Framework (SRF) reports will be heard by both Councils’ respective executive and cabinet committees outlining the vision that will guide wide-scale investment and development across the 130hectare city fringe location over the coming decades.  

    The draft Strangeways and Cambridge SRF presents a high-level vision for the area, building on the work of the Operation Vulcan policing operation, to provide a platform for legitimate businesses to grow and thrive, alongside a major new urban park, significant new housing – including affordable homes – and significant commercial and employment opportunities.  

    The programme of investment estimates the combined development areas could see up to 7,000 new homes across seven distinct ‘neighbourhood’ areas, increased commercial floorspace of around 1.75m sqft, and the regeneration could support an additional 4,500 jobs.  

    The draft SRF presents a development approach that will support Manchester’s target to become a zero-carbon city by 2038 and reacts to other environmental factors in the areas, including potential flooding linked to climate change.   

    The SRF also reflects how HM Prison Manchester – formerly Strangeways Prison – remains a significant barrier to the regeneration ambitions in this part of the city and the framework will act as an engagement tool with the Ministry of Justice around the long-term future of the prison. 

    The key themes of the SRF include: 
    • Business and Employment: Increase business and employment opportunities – supporting ongoing economic growth in both Manchester and Salford 
    • Green and Blue Infrastructure: Create a network of green spaces and celebrate the River Irwell – including the creation of a large new city centre park (working title: Copper Park) – and respond to flood risk 
    • Movement: Prioritise a ‘people first’ approach to the regeneration, including active travel while carefully managing parking, servicing and delivery requirements.  
    • Heritage and Culture: Celebrate the existing architecture and heritage buildings in the area as part of the comprehensive regeneration plans.

    This  draft Strangeways and Cambridge SRF document has been prepared on behalf of MCC and SCC by Avison Young with Maccreanor Lavington Architects, Feilden Clegg Bradley Studios, Schulze+Grassov, Civic Engineers, Useful Projects and PLACED.

    Salford’s Cabinet will meet on Tuesday 11 March. 

    Find the Salford City Council Cabinet Report  

    Manchester’s executive will meet on Friday 14 March 

    Find the Manchester City Council Executive Report – see agenda item 8

    Following the respective Council approvals, consultation around the SRF document will begin at the end of March, the results of which will be reported to future Executive and Cabinet meetings.  

    Further information on the SRF can be found here. 

    The draft SRF was in part delivered using Government Funding.

    Leader of the Council Bev Craig said:  
    “This framework is our shared long-term vision, alongside our colleagues in Salford, to deliver a transformation in the Strangeways and Cambridge communities.  

    “We have an opportunity to create a platform for development and investment, enabled by the successful work carried out by the Operation Vulcan partnership, to support businesses to grow and prosper in these neighbourhoods – creating thousands of new jobs and support the ongoing growth of our city – alongside a major new public park and new homes, including Council, social and genuinely affordable housing. 

    “We know this area has challenges, including the prison that presents a key barrier to the regeneration of the area, but we also know that there is energy and a community brimming with potential.  

    “We will deliver huge change in Strangeways in the coming years, working alongside the people who live and work there, and as we move to consultation in the coming weeks, we want to speak to local people and businesses about how we can make this part of the city thrive.” 

    Salford City Mayor, Paul Dennett added:  
    “We’ve been on a journey of growth and regeneration in recent years, and our work has  changed the landscape in different parts of Salford for the benefit of our residents. It’s now time to focus on the Cambridge area and working with colleagues in Manchester, this framework provides us with a once in a lifetime opportunity to do that. 

    “This framework proposes options for the Salford part of the SRF, taking into account the requirements of residents and local businesses, and the need for quality housing in the area. The key will be to balance these needs with what the long-term flood data is telling us and how we future-proof the area against climate change. 

    “The proposals in the framework seek to identify the best possible options for this area. These include the exciting opportunity to create a new city park for all, with an option for appropriate levels of mixed-use development, to continue to drive sustainable growth. 

    “I’d urge everyone with a vested interest in this area, whether you’re a resident or business to engage with the consultation process and work with us help shape the future of this part of the city.” 

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: Anthony Albanese beset by disruptors, from Cyclone Alfred to Donald Trump

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    Issues sometimes “come at you”, Anthony Albanese declared on Thursday at the end of a news conference, held at Canberra’s National Situation Room, about Cyclone Alfred.

    The cyclone is a disaster for millions of people in its path. For the prime minister, it is a major political disruptor.

    Albanese cancelled his visit to Western Australia: he’d wanted to be there when Labor has its anticipated certain win at Saturday’s election.

    His own election planning – which seemed headed for an April 12 election called this weekend – has been thrown into some disarray (although this is contested by those involved).

    Then there was the good news that was crowded out. Wednesday’s national accounts finally showed some of the much hoped-for positive trends, especially an end to the per capita recession, which had been running for seven consecutive quarters. But with the cyclone naturally dominating attention, who noticed?

    Albanese’s response to the new circumstances was to place himself at the centre of the planning for the cyclone. He stood side by side with Queensland Premier David Crisafulli at his news conference on Wednesday and was early to the Situation Room on Thursday morning, promising to give regular updates.

    To questions about whether he’d abandoned any thought of calling an election at the weekend, the PM insisted (unconvincingly) that politics was furthest from his mind. Though announcing an election would appear near impossible in the circumstances, and attention had already begun turning to a May date (and a budget beforehand), Albanese on Thursday wouldn’t be drawn. Basically, he was waiting to see what happened with the weather.

    The cyclone will be a passing disruptor. The disruption from the Trump administration will be with Australia (and the world) for the foreseeable future.

    Next week Australia will know whether its intense lobbying for an exemption from the US tariffs on aluminium and steel has been effective. Those around the government are not optimistic.

    More concerning than the immediate impact on Australia if we fail to win the exemption is the effect of US protectionism more generally.

    Reserve Bank deputy Governor Andrew Hauser confirmed this week that “from a macroeconomic perspective, Australia’s direct exposure to US tariffs levied on our exports is limited”.

    “[But] Australia is heavily integrated into, and reliant on, the global economy more broadly – and particularly China. Hence the bigger macroeconomic risk for us would be if the imposition of US tariffs on third countries triggered a global trade war that impaired our trade and financial linkages more broadly.

    “As Australia’s long history has shown, we thrive when trade, labour and assets flow freely in the global economy, but we suffer when countries turn inwards.”

    How disruptive this new world will be to the Australian economy can’t be known but it could make things very difficult for a second term Albanese government or a first term Dutton one.

    As Trump tries to force a settlement on Ukraine, there’s been increasing attention on the Europeans’ plans to boost their defence expenditure. This week, we started to feel the heat on Australia to do the same.

    Trump’s nominee for Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, Elbridge Colby told the US Senate Committee on Armed Services, in a written answer during his confirmation hearing, that “Australia is a core U.S. ally. […] The main concern the United States should press with Australia, consistent with the President’s approach, is higher defense spending. Australia is currently well below the 3% level advocated for by NATO Secretary General Rutte, and Canberra faces a far more powerful challenge in China.”

    Presently Australia’s defence spending is about 2% of GDP, projected to increase to 2.4% by 2033–34.The Coalition has said it would spend more than Labor (but has not specified how much more).

    Defence Minister Richard Marles said he could “obviously understand the US administration seeking for its friends and allies around the world to do more. That’s a conversation that we will continue to have with the US administration. […] But it’s really important to understand we are increasing that spending right now.”

    It’s also important to understand that if Australia must ramp up defence further or faster than present plans, that will suck funds from other priorities, putting another squeeze on future governments.

    Trump’s bullying of Ukraine and its leader Volodymyr Zelensky has not weakened the bipartisan support in Australia for Ukraine.

    But a difference has emerged over whether Australia should (if asked) take part in any peacekeeping force. Peter Dutton said this role should be left to the Europeans. But Albanese flagged his government would consider it, pointing to the many other peacekeeping operations we have participated in.

    Former prime minister Scott Morrison got on well with Trump during the president’s first term and has become even more signed up since. The Morrisons were at Mar-a-Lago for New Year’s eve.

    Morrison was distinctly sympathetic to Trump’s approach when talking this week about Ukraine. He told an Australian Financial Review dinner, “Do we just keep fighting this war every day? The alternative is to find a peace that can be secured.

    “There was no conversation, no real conversation, about peace in Ukraine up until now.” Zelensky had the “most to gain” from negotiating to end the war, he said.

    Morrison is affiliated with lobbying firm American Global Strategies, which has links to the Trump administration. Colby is listed as a senior adviser. The chairman and founder of the group, Robert C. O’Brien, was formerly a national security adviser to Trump.

    Morrison is one of a number of former senior Australian political figures who have a current professional or commercial lock-in to Washington politics.

    Former Liberal treasurer Joe Hockey, who was close to the Trump White House when Hockey was ambassador in 2016-20, is founder and global president of Bondi Partners, a lobbying firm that operates between the US and Australia.

    Another former Australian ambassador to Washington, Arthur Sinodinos, is based in Washington as a partner in the Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm.

    Meanwhile former PM Kevin Rudd, as Australian ambassador in Washington, is trying to amplify Australia’s official voice with the administration.

    Speculation continues about Rudd’s future if the government changed. Dutton says that would depend on how effective Rudd was, saying his present instinct would be leave him in the job.

    Others are sceptical this would happen, and raise Morrison’s name as a possible replacement. Morrison has reportedly told people he would not want the post. But you couldn’t rule it out.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Grattan on Friday: Anthony Albanese beset by disruptors, from Cyclone Alfred to Donald Trump – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-anthony-albanese-beset-by-disruptors-from-cyclone-alfred-to-donald-trump-251258

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Europe: ASIA/MYANMAR – In Kachin State: Catholic pastoral center bombed

    Source: Agenzia Fides – MIL OSI

    Banmaw diocese

    Banmaw (Agenzia Fides) – The pastoral center on the grounds of the Catholic Church of St. Michael in Nan Hlaing, in a rural area of the diocese of Banmaw (northern Myanmar), was hit and destroyed by a bombing raid by the Burmese army. “Five bullets and two aerial bombs fired at our church grounds hit the building but did not injure anyone,” reports Jesuit Wilbert Mireh, parish priest of the church with a history of over a century. The Jesuit reports that he had to travel to a distant place on the border with China to find a place with electricity and internet access and to be able to communicate with the outside world. “Electricity, telephone and other services have been absent in our area since July 2024,” he says. Banmaw is located in Kachin State, about 186 km south of the capital Myitkyina, and has a population of about 65,000, mainly Kachin, but also Bamar, Shan and Han. “The bombing caused damage to the building, but no injuries. We thank God that we are safe, although people here are fighting for survival, there are no schools, clinics or shops,” Father Mireh continued. “After this new attack, the faithful trust in the Archangel Michael and pray to him to protect us. Even the boys and children sing and invoke Saint Michael,” he reports. “We usually celebrate Mass under the trees because it is too dangerous to be in the church and the building has already been hit and damaged. But I must say that despite the suffering and the precarious conditions, the faith and spirit are strong. The faithful pray every day that the Lord, through the Archangel Michael, continues to grant his protection and watch over us,” the religious continued. Father Mireh is Burma’s native Jesuit, ordained a priest in 2013 and now one of around 30 Burmese Jesuits. After his pastoral service in Loikaw, he was sent to Banmaw, where, in addition to pastoral care for the faithful, he has always devoted himself to social apostolate and education. “Today, the fact that children do not have school is one of the serious consequences of the civil war,” he notes. Father Mireh concludes: “Despite the fear and unease, we will continue to live for good, truth and justice, firm in our faith.” The context in which the local Catholic community finds itself today is that of Kachin State in northern Myanmar, where a bitter struggle is taking place between the regular army and the army of the Kachin ethnic minority, which has taken up positions near the town of Banmaw. The Kachin Independence Army (KIA), which is fighting for the state’s self-determination, is one of the best organized ethnic militias that has been active for decades and has joined the resistance against the currently ruling military junta. In Kachin State, the Burmese army has been forced to withdraw from large parts of the area and is now bombarding it with artillery and aircraft. According to local sources, due to the ongoing fighting for control of Banmaw, most of the city’s residents have fled, leaving only about 20,000 people living in the city. The displaced have fled to the surrounding forests and villages, where they find few resources for their livelihood. The Banmaw diocese is located in the southeastern part of Kachin State, in the border area with China. In recent years, even before the 2021 coup, the conflict between the regular Myanmar army and the KIA had created over 120,000 displaced people. The war has intensified and has affected nine of the diocese’s 13 parishes in the last two years, further increasing the number of refugees. (PA) (Agenzia Fides, 5/3/2024)
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    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Meet the ‘Land Heroes’ who are fighting desertification

    Source: United Nations MIL OSI b

    From planting a billion trees in Zimbabwe, in southern Africa, to exporting products from the moringa tree in Mali and developing a climate action-focused board game called “Rescuing Penguins,” in Costa Rica, a group of young people has been recognized by the UN for making a positive impact in the fight to counter desertification, land degradation and drought.

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: Looming famine in Rakhine signals wider crisis in Myanmar

    Source: United Nations MIL OSI b

    By Vibhu Mishra

    Peace and Security

    Up to two million people in Myanmar’s Rakhine state face the dire prospect of famine, amid a broader economic collapse and worsening humanitarian crisis triggered by the military’s 2021 overthrow of the democratically elected government.

    In a report released on Thursday, the UN Development Programme (UNDP) described the situation in the poverty-struck province as an “unprecedented disaster”.

    A perfect storm is brewing,” it said, citing a combination of interlinked issues – restrictions on domestic and international flow of goods, hyperinflation, loss of livelihoods, dwindling agricultural production and lack of essential services.

    Without urgent action nearly the entire population (about 95 per cent) “will regress into survival mode”, UNDP warned.

    They will be left to fend for themselves amid a drastic reduction in domestic production, skyrocketing prices, widespread unemployment and heightened insecurity.

    Rakhine is home to the mostly-Muslim Rohingya community who fled a brutal military crackdown in 2017 in their hundreds and thousands, in what the former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein called ethnic cleansing.

    Today, nearly one million Rohingya refugees remain in neighbouring Bangladesh, where UN aid teams have had to cut food rations amid major funding shortages.

    Collective punishment

    Data collected across Rakhine in 2023 and 2024, also pointed to a virtual halt in the state’s economy, with critical sectors such as trade, agriculture and construction nearly at a standstill.

    “People’s incomes are collapsing because export-oriented, agrarian livelihoods in Rakhine are disappearing as the domestic and international markets are no longer accessible due to blockades,” UNDP said.

    It added that the restrictions put in place by the military’s State Administration Council were “clearly aimed at isolating Rakhine from the rest of the country and exacting ‘collective punishment’ on an already vulnerable population”.

    Repercussions beyond borders

    UNDP further warned that the recent escalation in manipulating ethnic identity along with an imminent economic catastrophe, will deepen marginalization, disenfranchisement and put intercommunal relationships at even greater risk than ever before.

    As the crisis worsens, the lack of resources and opportunities will continue to fuel tensions and trigger a greater exodus of youth and families…this would have repercussions both within Myanmar and beyond its borders,” it said.

    “Without safe avenues for escape, we anticipate an increase in human trafficking, particularly among the vulnerable Rohingya population.”

    Knock-on effects

    The knock-on effects of the situation Rakhine are contributing to a pattern of internal migration across Myanmar.

    As the economic situation worsens, many families see relocation as their only option for survival, a separate UNDP report on migration patterns revealed. Many young adults are leaving their communities for urban centres in search of work and stability.

    However, what they find is often far from what they had hoped – jobs are scarce and those who migrate for safety rather than economic opportunity frequently encounter severe mental health challenges.

    Women face an additional burden: lower wages, higher rates of discrimination and greater obstacles in the job market.

    © UNDP

    A girl scavenges for recyclable materials at a garbage dump in Mandalay, Myanmar’s second-largest city, where impoverished families are often forced to search for items to sell for minimal income. (file)

    Brain drains

    The migration crisis extends beyond Myanmar’s borders, with comparisons revealing stark differences between internal migrants and those who flee to neighbouring countries, such as Thailand.

    Those who moved abroad often earned better wages, experiencing improved living conditions. This could potentially lead to labour shortages and hinder any future recovery, UNDP said.

    “With nearly 25 per cent of the population already living abroad, addressing these migration trends is essential to retaining a productive workforce within the country,” it added.

    Dwindling human capital

    Compounding this, the conflict and economic strife are accelerating the degradation of Myanmar’s human capital and prospects look equally bleak.

    Essential services like healthcare, education, and access to clean water and sanitation are becoming luxuries out of reach for many, according to data released by UNDP in September, with nearly 25 per cent of children no longer attending school.

    The dropout rates are climbing in regions hardest hit by violence and economic hardship, such as Rakhine and neighbouring Chin state.

    The healthcare systems are strained to the breaking point and basic medical needs remain unmet, UNDP said.

    “A mass exodus of skilled workers is depleting the nation’s productive capacity, exacerbating the long-term effects of this crisis.”

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: World News in Brief: Death toll rises in Darfur, Cyclone Chido latest, São Tomé and Príncipe takes development step

    Source: United Nations MIL OSI b

    Peace and Security

    UN humanitarians expressed alarm on Monday at the rising numbers of civilian casualties in and around the besieged Sudanese city of El Fasher, in northern Darfur.

    According to news reports citing local sources, paramilitaries from the so-called Rapid Support Forces who have been battling the forces of the military Government for 18 months, launched a missile attack at the weekend which killed more than 30 people in the city, while a drone attack on Friday reportedly killed nine and wounded 20 at the Saudi Hospital in El Fasher.

    Attacks include the repeated shelling of the Zamzam displacement camp since the beginning of this month, said UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric, briefing correspondents in New York.

    “The camp hosts hundreds of thousands of people and famine conditions were confirmed there earlier this year.”

    In response to the deaths in the city in recent days, Mr. Dujarric condemned all civilian killings “wherever they occur”.

    ‘Deplorable’ attacks

    WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said of the attack on the main hospital that it was no longer operational, describing all attacks on healthcare as “deplorable”, in a post on X. The hospital is no longer operational. (repeat)

    “This is part of a broader escalation of attacks across Darfur and in other areas of Sudan,” the Spokesperson added, reiterating the call from UN humanitarian affairs office, OCHA, for an immediate ceasefire

    “We reiterate that international humanitarian law must be respected. Civilians and civilian infrastructure, including hospitals, are not targets,” he added.

    Cyclone Chido: Humanitarians rush aid to affected areas

    After Cyclone Chido made landfall in the French island territory of Mayotte at the weekend, leaving an unknown number of dead and destruction on a massive scale, UN teams began aid distribution in Cabo Delgado province, in northern Mozambique – following the deadly storm making landfall there.

    Around two million people are at risk in Mozambique, including 627,000 identified as being at “high risk”.

    In an alert, the UN World Food Programme (WFP) said that voluntary evacuation plans began to be circulated on 8 December, reaching more than 400,000 people.

    The UN agency reported that in less than 24 hours, emergency food assistance reached around 500 cyclone-affected families in temporary accommodation centres in Pemba district alone.

    Humanitarians have been on high alert since the French Indian Ocean territory of Mayotte experienced its worst cyclone in almost a century on Saturday. Media reports showed trees uprooted and houses smashed, while communities faced power cuts and fears over a lack of drinking water.

    Close cooperation

    The UN is working closely with the Government in Mozambique to assess the damage and humanitarian impact.

    For its part, UN Children’s Fund, UNICEF, and partners are providing water and sanitation supplies to mitigate disease risks as the region is already grappling with a cholera outbreak.

    Preliminary figures indicate that 140,000 people have been impacted across Cabo Delgado Province, where more than one million people are already in need of assistance due to the ongoing conflict, said UN Spokesperson Stéphane Dujarric.

    “Our humanitarian colleagues tell us that in the most impacted districts – including Mecufi and Metuge – people urgently need shelter, they need water, they need sanitation, hygiene, health and protection assistance,” he added.

    Emergency Relief Coordinator, Tom Fletcher, allocated $4 million from the Central Emergency Response Fund to support early response efforts.

    São Tomé and Príncipe takes major development step

    The UN has congratulated São Tomé and Príncipe on its official graduation from the Least Developed Countries (LDC) category.

    The Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States (UNOHRLLS) said the milestone “marks a significant achievement in the country’s development journey and reflects its sustained efforts to achieve robust economic growth, enhance human development, and improve resilience against vulnerabilities.”

    The graduation also underscores the international community’s collective push to support LDCs overall and is “the result of years of strategic planning, effective policymaking, and international partnerships,” added OHRLLS in a statement.

    The UN Committee for Development Policy recommended the country’s graduation after it met the necessary criteria based on per capita income, human assets, and economic and environmental vulnerability indices.

    Notable accomplishments include the increase in universal health coverage from 47 per cent in 2010 to 59 per cent by 2021 and being ranked 11th among 54 African nations in the 2021 Ibrahim Index of African Governance.

    “The graduation of São Tomé and Príncipe is a historic milestone that underscores the resilience, vision, and determination of its government and people,” said Rabab Fatima, High Representative for OHRLLS.

    “This achievement is a powerful testament to the impact of effective partnership and multilateral cooperation, offering both a model and an inspiration for other LDCs working to overcome structural challenges and achieve sustainable development.”

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: ‘Naked struggle for power and resources’ leaves civilians paying unbearable price: UN human rights chief

    Source: United Nations MIL OSI b

    “Our world is going through a period of turbulence and unpredictability, reflected in growing conflict and divided societies,” Türk told the Human Rights Council.

    “We cannot allow the fundamental global consensus around international norms and institutions, built painstakingly over decades, to crumble before our eyes.”

    The weapons of war

    Presenting his global update covering more than 30 countries, the High Commissioner described as “outrageous” the fact that legal safeguards for non-combatants were being repeatedly ignored.

    “Civilians are deliberately attacked. Sexual violence and famine are used as weapons of war,” Mr. Türk said. “Humanitarian access is denied, while weapons flow across borders and circumvent international sanctions. And humanitarian workers are targeted. In 2024, a record 356 humanitarian workers were killed while providing aid to people in some of the world’s most appalling crises.”

    Unbearable price

    In Sudan, the High Commissioner once again condemned devastating bomb attacks launched in heavily built-up areas with total impunity, by the parties to the conflict.

    All the while, the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophe deepens, threatening regional stability, he maintained: “Civilians are paying an unbearable price, in a naked struggle for power and resources. All countries must use their influence to apply pressure on the parties and their allies, to stop the war, embark on an inclusive dialogue, and transition to a civilian-led Government.”

    Ukraine’s people need peace

    Turning to Ukraine, whose future material support from the United States appeared unclear following televised disagreements between Presidents Trump and Zelensky at a White House meeting on Friday, Mr. Türk opposed any peace deal that excluded Ukraine.

    “Three years since the full-scale Russian invasion, people continue to suffer appallingly…Any discussions about ending the war must include Ukrainians and fully respect their human rights. Sustainable peace must be based on the United Nations Charter and international law.”

    Civilian casualties in Ukraine rose by 30 per cent between 2023 and 2024, the High Commissioner continued, as he accused Russia’s armed forces of systematically targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure with coordinated strikes, causing widespread disruptions to essential services.

    “Relentless attacks with aerial glide bombs, long-range missiles and drones have placed civilians in a state of constant insecurity and fear,” Mr. Türk noted.

    Ukrainian prisoners also continue to face summary executions and “widespread and systematic torture” by Russian forces, he continued.

    Gaza ceasefire focus

    In the Occupied Palestinian Territory, the UN rights chief insisted that the fragile ceasefire holds in Gaza “and becomes the basis for peace”.

    He also insisted that aid deliveries into Gaza should resume immediately, just as Israel announced a halt to aid flowing into the shattered enclave, having proposed extending the first phase of the ceasefire which ended at the weekend and which would allow Israeli troops to stay in Gaza.

    UN aid chief Tom Fletcher responded with alarm to the Israeli decision, insisting that the ceasefire “must hold”.

    In an online appeal, he added: “International humanitarian law is clear: We must be allowed access to deliver vital lifesaving aid. We can’t roll back the progress of the past 42 days. We need to get aid in and the hostages out.”

    Back in the Council, Mr. Türk explained that the Gaza had been “razed” by constant Israeli bombardment in response to the “horrific” Hamas-led attacks on Israel that sparked the war in October 2023. “Any solution to the cycles of violence must be rooted in human rights, including the right to self-determination, the rule of law and accountability. All hostages must be freed; all those detained arbitrarily must be released; and humanitarian aid into Gaza must resume immediately.”

    West Bank alert

    Reflecting deep concerns by humanitarians and the human rights community about Israeli military raids on Palestinian settlements in the West Bank, the UN High Commissioner insisted that Israel’s “unilateral actions and threats of annexation in the West Bank, in violation of international law, must stop”.

    Mr. Türk also condemned the use of “military weapons and tactics, including tanks and airstrikes, against Palestinians”. Equally worrying was “the destruction and emptying of refugee camps, the expansion of illegal settlements, the severe restrictions on movement and the displacement of tens of thousands of people”.

    DR Congo devastation

    Turning to the conflict in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, the High Commissioner underscored that entire communities in North and South Kivu had been devastated.

    “In the past five weeks, thousands of people have reportedly been killed during attacks by the M23 armed group, backed by the Rwandan Armed Forces, in intense fighting against the Armed Forces of the DRC and their allies,” the UN rights chief said, pointing to reports of rape, sexual slavery and summary executions.

    “More than half a million people have been forced to flee this year, adding to almost 7.8 million people already displaced in the country,” Mr. Türk said. “The violence must stop, violations by all parties must be investigated, and dialogue must resume.”

    © WFP/Michael Castofas

    More than half a million people have been forced to flee DR Congo this year.

    Deadliest year in Myanmar

    Moving on to the ongoing escalation of violence in Myanmar sparked by the military coup on 1 February 2021, the UN rights chief noted that 2024 was the deadliest year for civilians since the junta takeover.

    “The military ramped up brutal attacks on civilians as their grip on power eroded, with retaliatory airstrikes and artillery shelling of villages and urban areas…and the forcible conscription of thousands of young people,” he said, before calling for the supply of arms and finance to the country’s military’s to be “cut decisively”.

    Haiti spiral

    The UN rights chief also expressed deep concerns about chronic lawlessness and heavily armed clashes in Haiti involving gangs that humanitarians warned last week recruit children as young as eight. More than 5,600 people were killed last year and thousands more were injured or kidnapped, Mr. Türk told the Human Rights Council.

    “Full implementation of the Security Council‘s arms embargo and support to the Multinational Security Support Mission are crucial to resolving this crisis,” he insisted.

    Yemen

    On Yemen, the High Commissioner noted that amid ongoing hostilities, nearly 20 million Yemenis need humanitarian support. Mr. Türk also expressed his outrage at the death of a UN World Food Programme colleague in detention earlier this month. “All 23 UN staff – including eight colleagues from my own Office – who are arbitrarily detained by the Houthis must be released immediately.”

    In a half-hour address to the Council that traditionally highlights the most worrying emergencies in the world and the need to tackle their root causes, the UN rights chief issued a call for greater global solidarity and accountability for crimes as a way to push back against those who would violate fundamental freedoms.

    “We all have a responsibility to act – through our consumption habits, our social media use, and our political and social engagement,” he told the Council’s 47 Member States.

    “We can trace a clear line between the lack of accountability for airstrikes on hospitals in Syria in the 2010s, attacks on healthcare facilities in Yemen, and the destruction of health systems in Gaza and Sudan,” he continued.

    Toys of tech oligarchs

    Equally alarming is the rise of unelected and unregulated “tech oligarchs” who reflect the new global power dynamic, Mr. Türk warned, before urging governments to fulfil their primary purpose of protecting their people from unchecked power.

    Today’s tech oligarchs “have our data: they know where we live, what we do, our genes and our health conditions, our thoughts, our habits, our desires and our fears…And they know how to manipulate us,” the High Commissioner insisted.

    Electioneering tactics

    “I have followed recent election campaigns in Europe, North America and beyond with increasing trepidation. Single-issue soundbites devoid of substance oversimplify complex issues and are often based on scapegoating, disinformation, and dehumanization,” he continued.

    “Dehumanization is a well-worn step towards treating an entire group as outsiders, unworthy of the basic rights we all enjoy. It is a dangerous precursor to hate and violence and must be called out whenever it occurs.”

    UN Human Rights Council/Marie Bambi

    Volker Türk, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, presents his latest report on the obligation to ensure accountability and justice in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

    Toxic influence on gender equality

    The High Commissioner also voiced his concern about the resurgence of toxic ideas about masculinity and efforts to glorify gender stereotypes, especially among young men.

    To blame for this are “misogynistic influencers” with millions of followers on social media who “are hailed as heroes”, Mr. Türk said.

    Online and offline, their ideas push back against gender equality and result in “violence and hateful rhetoric against women, women’s rights defenders, and women politicians”, the High Commissioner continued. 

    In a message of solidarity with people who have been left “feeling alienated and abandoned” by such malign influences, Mr. Türk insisted that the United Nations was by their side. “Your concerns are our concerns, because they are about human rights: to education, to health, to housing, to free speech, and access to justice. Human rights are about people’s daily concerns for their families and their future. We must cherish the values of respect, unity and solidarity; and work together for a safer, more just, more sustainable world. We can and will persevere,” he concluded.

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI Africa: US trade wars with China – and how they play out in Africa

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Lauren Johnston, Associate Professor, China Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    Since taking office, US president Donald Trump has implemented policies that have been notably hostile towards China. They include trade restrictions. Most recently, a 20% tariff was added to all imports from China and new technological restrictions were imposed under the America First Investment Policy. This isn’t the first time US-China tensions have flared. Throughout history the relationship has been fraught by economic, military and ideological conflicts.

    China-Africa scholar and economist Lauren Johnston provides insights into how these dynamics may also shape relations between Africa and China.

    How has China responded to hostile US policies?

    First, China tends to have a defiant official response. It expresses disappointment, then states that the US policy position is not helpful to any country or the world economy.

    Second, China makes moves domestically to prioritise the interests of key, affected industries.

    Third, China will sometimes impose retaliatory sanctions.

    In 2018, for instance, China imposed a 25% tariff on US soybeans, a critical animal feed source. The US Department of Agriculture had to compensate US soybean farmers for their lost income.

    Another example is how, following US tech sanctions, China took a more independent technology path. It has channelled billions into tech funds. The goal is to make financing available for Chinese entrepreneurs and to push technological boundaries in areas of US sanction, such as semiconductors. These efforts are backed up by subsidies and tax reductions. In some cases, the Chinese state will invest directly in tech companies.

    More recently, China retaliated to the US trade war by announcing tariffs on 80 US products. China is set to place 15% tariffs on certain energy exports, including coal, natural gas and petroleum. An additional 10% tariffs will be placed on 72 manufactured products including trucks, motor homes and agricultural machinery.

    Agricultural trade has been hard hit. The day the US announced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, China announced “an additional 15% tariff on imported chicken, wheat, corn and cotton originating from the US”. Also, “sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products will be subject to an additional 10% tariff”.

    How have these Chinese responses affected Africa?

    We can’t say for certain that China’s response to US trade tensions has explicitly affected its Africa policy, but there are some notable coincidences.

    Less than one month after Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, and soon after the first tariffs were slapped on China’s exports to the US, China announced new measures to foster China-Africa trade efforts. The policy package aims to “strengthen economic and trade exchanges between China and Africa.”

    This is the latest in a series of Chinese actions.

    In January 2018 trade hostilities began to escalate after Trump imposed a first round of tariffs on all imported washing machines and solar panels. These had an impact on China’s exports to the US.

    Later the same year, China imposed 25% tariffs on US soy bean imports and took steps to reduce dependence on US agricultural products. China also took steps to expand trade with Africa, agricultural trade in particular.

    In September 2018, Beijing hosted the Forum on China and Africa Cooperation summit, a triennial head of state gathering. It was announced that China would set up a China-Africa trade expo and foster deeper agricultural cooperation. In the days after the summit, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was already acting on this. A gathering of African agricultural ministers took place in Changsha, Hunan province.

    Hunan province has since taken centre stage in China-Africa relations. It’s now the host of a permanent China-Africa trade exhibition hall and a larger biennial China-Africa economic and trade exhibition (known as CAETE).

    Hunan also hosts the pilot zone for In-Depth China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation. The zone has numerous initiatives designed to overcome obstacles to China-Africa trade and investment, like support in areas of law, technology and currency, and vocational training.

    Finally, the zone is located in a bigger free-trade zone that is better connected to Africa by air, water and land corridors. African agricultural exports to China pass through Hunan, where local industry either uses these imports or distributes them across the country to retailers.

    Companies in Hunan are well placed to play a key role in supporting China-Africa trade, capitalising on the opportunities left by China-US hostilities.

    Hunan’s agritech giant Longping High-Tech, for instance, is investing in Tanzanian soybean farmers.

    Hunan is also home to China’s construction manufacturing and electronic transportation frontier. This includes global construction giant Sany, which produces heavy industry machinery for the construction, mining and energy sectors. China’s global electronic vehicle manufacturing BYD and its electronic railway industry are also in Hunan. They have deep and increasing interests in Africa and can also support China’s key minerals and tech race with the US.

    As US-China hostility enters a new era, what are the implications for China-Africa relations?

    As my new working paper sets out, African countries are, for example, responding to the new opportunities from China.

    At the end of 2024, while the world waited for Trump’s second coming, various African countries made moves to strengthen economic ties with China, Hunan province especially.

    In December 2024, Tanzania became the first African country to open an official investment promotion office in the China-Africa Cooperation Pilot Zone in Changaha.

    In November 2024, both the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Africa and the China Engineering Technology Exhibition were held in Abuja, Nigeria. Equivalent events were hosted in Kenya.

    Early in 2025 in Niamey, Niger, a joint pilot cooperation zone was inaugurated , and which is direct partner of the China-Africa Pilot zone in Hunan.

    As China moves away from US agricultural produce, for instance, African agricultural producers can benefit. Substitute African products and potential exports will enjoy a price boost, and elevated Chinese support.

    China’s newly elevated interest in African development and market potential will bring major prospects. The question will be whether African countries are ready to grasp them, and to use that potential to foster an independent development path of their own.

    – US trade wars with China – and how they play out in Africa
    – https://theconversation.com/us-trade-wars-with-china-and-how-they-play-out-in-africa-249609

    MIL OSI Africa

  • MIL-OSI Global: US trade wars with China – and how they play out in Africa

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Lauren Johnston, Associate Professor, China Studies Centre, University of Sydney

    Since taking office, US president Donald Trump has implemented policies that have been notably hostile towards China. They include trade restrictions. Most recently, a 20% tariff was added to all imports from China and new technological restrictions were imposed under the America First Investment Policy. This isn’t the first time US-China tensions have flared. Throughout history the relationship has been fraught by economic, military and ideological conflicts.

    China-Africa scholar and economist Lauren Johnston provides insights into how these dynamics may also shape relations between Africa and China.

    How has China responded to hostile US policies?

    First, China tends to have a defiant official response. It expresses disappointment, then states that the US policy position is not helpful to any country or the world economy.

    Second, China makes moves domestically to prioritise the interests of key, affected industries.

    Third, China will sometimes impose retaliatory sanctions.

    In 2018, for instance, China imposed a 25% tariff on US soybeans, a critical animal feed source. The US Department of Agriculture had to compensate US soybean farmers for their lost income.

    Another example is how, following US tech sanctions, China took a more independent technology path. It has channelled billions into tech funds. The goal is to make financing available for Chinese entrepreneurs and to push technological boundaries in areas of US sanction, such as semiconductors. These efforts are backed up by subsidies and tax reductions. In some cases, the Chinese state will invest directly in tech companies.

    More recently, China retaliated to the US trade war by
    announcing tariffs on 80 US products. China is set to place 15% tariffs on certain energy exports, including coal, natural gas and petroleum. An additional 10% tariffs will be placed on 72 manufactured products including trucks, motor homes and agricultural machinery.

    Agricultural trade has been hard hit. The day the US announced a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, China announced “an additional 15% tariff on imported chicken, wheat, corn and cotton originating from the US”. Also, “sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products will be subject to an additional 10% tariff”.

    How have these Chinese responses affected Africa?

    We can’t say for certain that China’s response to US trade tensions has explicitly affected its Africa policy, but there are some notable coincidences.

    Less than one month after Trump’s return to the White House in 2025, and soon after the first tariffs were slapped on China’s exports to the US, China announced new measures to foster China-Africa trade efforts. The policy package aims to “strengthen economic and trade exchanges between China and Africa.”

    This is the latest in a series of Chinese actions.

    In January 2018 trade hostilities began to escalate after Trump imposed a first round of tariffs on all imported washing machines and solar panels. These had an impact on China’s exports to the US.

    Later the same year, China imposed 25% tariffs on US soy bean imports and took steps to reduce dependence on US agricultural products. China also took steps to expand trade with Africa, agricultural trade in particular.

    In September 2018, Beijing hosted the Forum on China and Africa Cooperation summit, a triennial head of state gathering. It was announced that China would set up a China-Africa trade expo and foster deeper agricultural cooperation. In the days after the summit, China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was already acting on this. A gathering of African agricultural ministers took place in Changsha, Hunan province.

    Hunan province has since taken centre stage in China-Africa relations. It’s now the host of a permanent China-Africa trade exhibition hall and a larger biennial China-Africa economic and trade exhibition (known as CAETE).

    Hunan also hosts the pilot zone for In-Depth China-Africa Economic and Trade Cooperation. The zone has numerous initiatives designed to overcome obstacles to China-Africa trade and investment, like support in areas of law, technology and currency, and vocational training.

    Finally, the zone is located in a bigger free-trade zone that is better connected to Africa by air, water and land corridors. African agricultural exports to China pass through Hunan, where local industry either uses these imports or distributes them across the country to retailers.

    Companies in Hunan are well placed to play a key role in supporting China-Africa trade, capitalising on the opportunities left by China-US hostilities.

    Hunan’s agritech giant Longping High-Tech, for instance, is investing in Tanzanian soybean farmers.

    Hunan is also home to China’s construction manufacturing and electronic transportation frontier. This includes global construction giant Sany, which produces heavy industry machinery for the construction, mining and energy sectors. China’s global electronic vehicle manufacturing BYD and its electronic railway industry are also in Hunan. They have deep and increasing interests in Africa and can also support China’s key minerals and tech race with the US.

    As US-China hostility enters a new era, what are the implications for China-Africa relations?

    As my new working paper sets out, African countries are, for example, responding to the new opportunities from China.

    At the end of 2024, while the world waited for Trump’s second coming, various African countries made moves to strengthen economic ties with China, Hunan province especially.

    In December 2024, Tanzania became the first African country to open an official investment promotion office in the China-Africa Cooperation Pilot Zone in Changaha.

    In November 2024, both the China-Africa Economic and Trade Expo in Africa and the China Engineering Technology Exhibition were held in Abuja, Nigeria. Equivalent events were hosted in Kenya.

    Early in 2025 in Niamey, Niger, a joint pilot cooperation zone was inaugurated , and which is direct partner of the China-Africa Pilot zone in Hunan.

    As China moves away from US agricultural produce, for instance, African agricultural producers can benefit. Substitute African products and potential exports will enjoy a price boost, and elevated Chinese support.

    China’s newly elevated interest in African development and market potential will bring major prospects. The question will be whether African countries are ready to grasp them, and to use that potential to foster an independent development path of their own.

    Lauren Johnston does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. US trade wars with China – and how they play out in Africa – https://theconversation.com/us-trade-wars-with-china-and-how-they-play-out-in-africa-249609

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI: New federal heat pump grant system approves 930 applications in minutes

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    Press Release no. 02/2025

    New federal heat pump grant system approves 930 applications in minutes

    Copenhagen, March 6, 2025

    The Danish Energy Agency has successfully launched its new digital grant management approval system for the heat pump subsidy program, delivering fast and efficient results beyond expectations.

    “Yesterday, we at the Danish Energy Agency opened the floodgates for the heat pump subsidy scheme – and it has exceeded all expectations”, says a representative at the Danish Energy Agency.

    “Applications totaling 26.6 million DKK have been submitted across 1,383 applications. The coolest part is that in just a few minutes, our top-tuned approval system has already automatically granted approval to 930 of the applicants. Now that’s what you call mega-fast digital support that just works.”

    The successful launch of this heat pump subsidy system underscores how smart technology can support faster, smarter, and more effective public services, accelerating Denmark’s green transition.

    Build and configured using cBrain (NASDAQ: CBRAIN) F2 COTS for government software platform, the new grant management solution supports fully integrated all steps end-to-end, from self-service to case processing, evaluation, and filing.

    Due to automated case processing steps, combined with automated integrations into multiple national registers, the grant process has been fully automated for the majority of applications. Now only cases that e.g. need more information and special evaluation require manual interaction.

    Best regards

    Per Tejs Knudsen, CEO

    Inquiries regarding this Press Release may be directed to

    Ejvind Jørgensen, CFO & Head of Investor Relations, cBrain A/S, ir@cbrain.com, +45 2594 4973

    Attachment

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Media – KIWI FILM TINĀ OPENS OVER $1M, STRIKING A COLLECTIVE CHORD ACROSS AOTEAROA

    Source: New Zealand Film Commission

    New Zealand’s latest cinematic success, Tinā (Tih-NAH), has taken the country by storm, surpassing $1 million in its opening weekend. The film is currently No. 1 on the box office charts, earning $1,324,529 to date with nearly 84,000 ticket sales.
    Tinā also set a new record for the widest release of a New Zealand film, screening across 128 locations in New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, the Cook Islands, Fiji, and Samoa. It now ranks as the third-biggest NZ opening week of all time, behind Hunt for the Wilderpeople and Sione’s 2: Unfinished Business.
    New Zealand Film Commission CEO Annie Murray says the success of Tinā is proof of the power of investing in local storytelling.
    “The incredible debut of Tinā isn’t just a win for this film – it’s a powerful demonstration of what’s possible when we invest in stories that reflect who we are. Audiences have shown up in record numbers for this film, proving there’s real appetite for authentic, well-crafted storytelling from our own filmmakers. We need to keep this momentum going.”
    Murray says Tinā is well positioned for success beyond New Zealand and the Pacific, with strong international sales potential.
    “A Kiwi film’s box office success is just one part of its overall return-international sales also bring money back into the pockets of the producers and investors. Successful sales will not only generate revenue for the filmmakers but also offset the investment made by the NZFC, allowing us to continue supporting future New Zealand stories.”
    A FILM THAT BRINGS PEOPLE TOGETHER
    Filmmaker Miki Magasiva is thrilled by the film’s reception.
    “We’re overjoyed that audiences have responded so positively to a local story carried by one of our local heroes in Anapela Polata’ivao. Our Pacific stories have an audience.”
    Light House Cinema chain owner Simon Werry says the film’s reception has been overwhelmingly positive.
    “Audiences are loving Tinā, and we’re seeing plenty of repeat viewings. It’s a pleasure to see a New Zealand film perform so well.”
    Ross Churchouse, owner of Lido Hamilton and Cathay Kerikeri, adds:
    “Tinā is the film we all need right now. There hasn’t been a New Zealand film that’s packed such an emotional punch-it’s a film that brings the whole audience together right to the end.”
    An inspiring, heartwarming, and humorous drama, Tinā follows the journey of Mareta Percival, a Samoan teacher struggling with grief after losing her daughter in the Christchurch earthquakes. Reluctantly taking on a substitute teaching role at an elite private school, she discovers students in desperate need of guidance, inspiration, and love.
    The film stars acclaimed Samoan actress Anapela Polataivao (Our Flag Means Death, Night Shift, The Breaker Upperers) as Mareta, alongside newcomer Antonia Robinson as Sophie. The cast also includes Beulah Koale (Hawai’i Five-0, Next Goal Wins, Bad Behaviour) and Nicole Whippy (Outrageous Fortune, Shortland Street).
    Directed, written, and produced by Miki Magasiva, Tinā was produced by Dan Higgins and Mario Gaoa. The film was made with investment from the New Zealand Film Commission, the New Zealand Screen Production Grant, and NZ On Air, with financing support from Kiwibank Limited. Madman Entertainment is distributing the film in New Zealand and Australia.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: First Responders – Waipoua River fire update #9

    Source: Fire and Emergency New Zealand

    Fire and Emergency New Zealand is moving from active firefighting to monitoring the fire in Waipoua Forest, which began last Wednesday and forced the evacuation of the Waipoua settlement.
    Incident Controller Denis Cooper says that after a week-long battle to contain and extinguish the 91-hectare fire, forestry contractors were dealing with the last remaining hotspots today.
    “We monitored the fire last night, and will be back on the job tonight, just to make sure we’ve really got all of it,” he says.
    “We’ll also have two Fire and Emergency crews there, and will check back here regularly over the next week to make sure there aren’t any flare-ups.”
    Fire and Emergency attended a community meeting this morning with several other agencies, including local iwi Te Raroa, Department of Conservation and the Ministry of Social Development, to make sure the community gets the support it needs in the aftermath of the fire.
    Many residents of the Waipoua settlement evacuated last Wednesday have now returned to their homes.
    Northland District Manager Wipari Henwood says early indications are that the fire was caused by a rubbish fire that got out of control – however investigations are still under way.
    “We’re working really closely with the community and Te Roroa to improve education around fire safety and restrictions,” he says.
    “We’re developing a response plan for the community, so that if a large fire happens here again, people know what to do to keep themselves and their whānau safe.”
    Outdoor fires are now completely prohibited in parts of Te Tai Tokerau – including Waipoua – due to the extremely dry conditions.
    This means no outdoor fires can be lit and all fire permits are revoked.
    Anyone considering lighting a fire should go to checkitsalright.nz to check the fire restrictions for their location and for advice and guidance on lighting fires outside.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI: Annual Financial Report

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    6 March 2025
    2024 Results Highlights

    Admiral Group reports excellent 2024 performance with strong growth in customers, turnover and profit and good strategic progress

      31 December 2024 31 December 2023 % change vs. 2023
    Group profit before tax £839.2m £442.8m +90%
    Earnings per share 216.6p 111.2p +95%
           
    Dividend per share 192.0p 103.0p +86%
    Return on equity1 56% 36% +20pts
           
    Group turnover¹ £6.15bn £4.81bn +28%
    Insurance revenue £4.78bn £3.49bn +37%
           
    Group customers¹ 11.10m 9.73m +14%
    UK insurance customers¹ 8.80m 7.39m +19%
    International insurance customers1 2.10m 2.17m -3%
    Admiral Money gross loan balances £1.17bn £0.96bn +23%
           
    Solvency ratio (post-dividend)¹ +203% +200% +3pts

    1 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to the end of the report for definition and explanation.

        
    Over 13,000 employees will each receive free share awards worth up to £3,600 under the employee share schemes based on the full year 2024 results.

    Comment from Milena Mondini de Focatiis, Group Chief Executive Officer:

    “2024 was a remarkable year. We delivered an excellent result with a 28 per cent increase in turnover and 90 per cent increase in profit as we welcomed an additional 1.4 million customers to the Group.

    “To remain one of the most competitive insurers for the largest number of people is a priority for us. We have emerged from several rather challenging years so when we saw conditions improve we were quick to respond. We were one of the first to reduce prices in response to easing inflation and cut rates the day after the favourable Ogden rate change announcement.

    “The main driver of our exceptional performance was our UK Motor business. However, it is great to see UK Household, Admiral Money, and our French and US Motor businesses all report a double-digit profit.

    “We are excited to be building on the synergies within our businesses and products. We recognise that there is more that we can do to meet even more of the needs of our growing customer base. We continue to focus on being a great choice for customers by leveraging our expertise in pricing, claims management and underwriting, and making continuous improvements in our service.

    “I was pleased to see our MSCI ESG score upgraded to AAA and to have our science-based targets officially approved. We have published our Net Zero Transition Plan and, as one of the leading insurers of electric vehicles in the UK, we are supporting the transition to greener vehicles.

    “Thanks to our incredible colleagues we have achieved so much this year and rewarded them with an additional bonus for their commitment.

    “As we enter into 2025, the market is softening, and the outlook is uncertain. Our priority is to stay efficient and agile so that we can adapt as needed and deliver long-term growth by building on our strong foundations and talented team.”

    Comment from Mike Rogers, Admiral Group Chair:

    “Admiral has had an excellent year, demonstrating, once again, how its unwavering focus on doing the right thing for customers can deliver growth and long-term value to all its stakeholders.

    “Admiral is now helping even more people to look after their future with its wider range of products. The Group’s commitment to continuous evolution and innovation means that it is using new technologies to better anticipate and meet customers’ needs and achieve greater efficiencies in how it operates.

    “Although inflation has eased, political, regulatory and economic uncertainty remains. Admiral’s prudent and disciplined approach will be key to ensuring that the Group continues to achieve long-term sustainable growth and can be there for its customers, colleagues and communities when they need it the most.”

    Final Dividend

    The Board has proposed a dividend of 121.0 pence per share (2023: 52.0 pence per share) representing a normal dividend (65% of post-tax profits) of 91.4 pence per share and a special dividend of 29.6 pence per share. The final dividend will be paid on 13 June 2025. The ex-dividend date is 15 May 2025, and the record date is 16 May 2025.

    Management presentation

    Analysts and investors will be able to access the Admiral Group management presentation which commences at 10.00 GMT on Thursday 6 March 2025 by registering at the following link to attend the presentation in person, or access the presentation live via webcast or conference call: https://admiralgroup.co.uk/events/event-details/2024-full-year-results. A copy of the presentation slides will be available at the following link: Results, reports and presentations | Admiral Group Plc (www.admiralgroup.co.uk)

    Investors and Analysts: Admiral Group plc
    Diane Michelberger                                Diane.Michelberger@admiralgroup.co.uk

    Media: Admiral Group plc    
    Addy Frederick                                Addy.Frederick@admiralgroup.co.uk
    +44 (0) 7500 171 810                       

    Media: FTI Consulting  
    Edward Berry                                        +44 (0) 7703 330 199
    Tom Blackwell                                        +44 (0) 7747 113 919

    Chair Statement

    Admiral Group performed very strongly in 2024 despite an unfavourable macroeconomic backdrop. The Group has achieved significant customer growth, while increasing customer satisfaction, and delivered an excellent UK Motor performance, supported by changes to the Ogden rate, with strong results in many other business lines. This has translated into profit before tax of £839.2 million and a proposed final dividend of 121.0 pence per share, making a total of 192.0 pence per share for the financial year.

    The Group’s impressive customer growth is a testament to its core value of doing what is right for customers. In the UK, due to better cycle management and in response to improved market conditions, Admiral reduced prices earlier than the market in early 2024.

    Delivering growth, digitisation and sustainability

    Defending and extending the competitive advantages of the UK motor business remains our number one priority, alongside our strategy of developing other franchises with the potential to drive future profitable growth. We have seen positive results across many of our newer franchises, with double-digit profit in the UK’s Household and Money businesses and our French business.

    The Group has made significant strides in enhancing its digital capabilities and unlocking the potential of new technologies to achieve a superior customer experience and greater productivity.

    Admiral continues to navigate a challenging regulatory landscape to ensure its resilience and sustainability in the long term. As one of the UK’s largest motor insurers, the business has been engaging with members of the motor insurance taskforce to identify solutions to tackle the current high costs of insurance.

    Admiral continues to support customers to adopt greener behaviours and is one of the leading UK electric vehicle insurers. The publication of Admiral’s Net Zero Transition Plan and the SBTi’s approval of its science-based targets demonstrates our commitment to responsible and sustainable business practices.

    Powered by our people

    Admiral colleagues’ expertise and dedication to supporting customers, colleagues and local communities is remarkable, so I was pleased that Admiral was, again, named one of the world’s best workplaces. Similarly, it was an honour to be at the London Stock Exchange to celebrate 20 years of Admiral being a listed business and delivering for customers and shareholders with colleagues who are custodians of the business’ incredible culture.

    I was sorry to say goodbye to Cristina Nestares who had successfully led the UK Insurance business since 2016. We all wish her the very best for the future. I’m pleased that, in line with the Group’s strong track record on succession planning, Alistair Hargreaves has been appointed UK Insurance CEO.

    We conducted an evaluation on the performance of the Board and its Committees. This process confirmed that these were operating effectively, that the business is managed for the long-term benefit of all stakeholders and provided a clear focus on areas for improvement for the forthcoming year.

    On behalf of the Board, I would like to thank Admiral colleagues for their ongoing commitment, and the management team for their excellent leadership and performance.

    While the external landscape remains uncertain, I believe that the Group’s competitive advantages, disciplined approach, and customer-first mindset will drive continued growth and shareholder value.

    Mike Rogers

    Group Chair

    5 March 2025

    Group Chief Executive Officer’s Review

    Overall, 2024 was a remarkable year for Admiral. It was not only a year of delivering excellent financial results but also one of continuous improvements in serving our customers and making solid progress on our strategy.

    Despite persisting economic, political, and regulatory uncertainty, motor insurance market conditions improved and this – combined with our historical discipline and agility across the insurance market cycle allowed us to achieve a great many successes. We have welcomed 1.4 million new customers, improved customer satisfaction, added £1.3 billion in turnover, and increased profits by 90 per cent.

    Our core business, UK Insurance, was the main driver of this success. It delivered just under £1 billion in profit, supported by the impact of the recent favourable Ogden Rate change, and strong growth across our other products. Our acquisition of the renewal rights for More Than completed in the first half of the year. The integration is progressing well with 7 months of renewals at the end of January and retention is in line with expectations.

    To remain one of the most competitive insurers for the largest number of people is a priority for us so, when we saw conditions improve, we were quick to reflect this in our pricing. We led on reducing rates, doing it earlier than most at the start of the year, as we saw inflation easing. We also cut rates the day after the favourable Ogden rate change announcement.

    Beyond UK motor, we have delivered double-digit profits within our UK Household, French and US Motor businesses and Admiral Money. We now serve over 11 million customers globally, with almost half of customer growth coming from other business lines across the Group.

    We are proud of the pleasing turnaround that the US team has achieved. As previously mentioned, we’re assessing the strategic options for our US business. We have made good progress and are in exclusive talks with a potential acquirer.

    Across our European franchises, we now insure more than half a million French customers and have seen an improved performance in our Spanish business. In Italy, the team is focused on turning the business around following a disappointing financial performance in a tough market in 2024.

    We are conscious that there is more to do to unlock the potential of these businesses. We have ambitious plans to build on our UK customer base, to further improve the customer experience and harness the advantage of automation and AI to achieve even greater efficiency.

    Taking a step back, our story has been one of continuous growth and, to celebrate 20 years as a listed company, colleagues joined Mike Rogers and I at the London Stock Exchange to close the market. This anniversary was a time for reflection on where the business has come from and, of course, where the business is going (and to celebrate Geraint who has been Group CFO for ten years – congratulations Mr Jones!).

    Our success has been underpinned by our pricing, underwriting and claims management expertise, all united by a culture that is truly unique. We put our customers and people first, and are data-driven, agile and entrepreneurial.

    We want to have a positive impact on society. We are one of the leading electric vehicle insurers and are proud of our commitment to improve road safety. In the UK, our Words to Live By campaign video was shown in cinemas nationwide.

    I am proud of how our colleagues have supported customers impacted by flooding and we are working cross-industry to ensure that homes are more flood resistant or resilient. Our colleagues want to play a positive role in the communities in which we live and work, and the number of volunteering hours more than doubled in 2024.

    We have published our Net Zero Transition Plan and are working hard to meet our sustainability goals. I was pleased to see our science-based targets officially approved and our MSCI ESG score upgraded to AAA.

    We know that if our people like what they do, they will do it better, and it is brilliant to be recognised, once again, as one of the World’s Best Workplaces. We focus on being an inclusive employer and maintaining our unique culture to attract and retain the talent we need to execute our strategy.

    I am so proud of everything that we have been able to achieve this year thanks to our incredible colleagues. Ever since we floated, colleagues have been given a stake in the business so that they can benefit from their hard work and customer focus. This year, we have given colleagues an additional bonus to reward their commitment.

    In October, we announced that Cristina Nestares was stepping down as CEO of our UK Insurance business to spend more time in her native Spain. We will miss Cristina’s passion and customer focus, which were key to building on the business’ position as a leading insurer. I was pleased to appoint Alistair Hargreaves as CEO. Alistair has significant leadership experience and extensive knowledge of our customers, colleagues, products and strategy, and I look forward to working even more closely with him as we continue to deliver for our growing customer base.

    We are emerging from four years of challenge from the pandemic and cost-of-living crisis to inflation spikes and regulatory changes. Although, no doubt, further challenges lie ahead, I am optimistic about the opportunities too. Our priority will be to stay agile, lean, and efficient so that we can adapt as needed, leveraging our strong foundations and talented team to deliver long-term growth.

    Milena Mondini de Focatiis

    Group Chief Executive Officer

    5 March 2025

    Group Chief Financial Officer’s Review

    I closed my 2023 statement by saying I looked forward to seeing improved underlying margins feeding into reported results for 2024. These results have duly delivered.

    There are many positives and milestones: customer numbers up by 1.37 million (record number and highest annual gain); turnover up £1.3 billion to £6.1 billion (same records as customers); highest ever investment return at £182 million; very strong solvency position (203%) maintained despite the significant 121.0p final dividend; some of the best results we have delivered in UK Motor (including a material boost from the review of the Personal Injury Discount Rate); and some encouraging results from businesses beyond UK Motor – over £70 million in aggregate from UK Household, Admiral Money, L’olivier Motor and Elephant US – each delivering their own record result.

    In UK Motor Insurance, after the very challenging 2021 and 2022 underwriting years (both of which experienced severe claims inflation), 2023 and 2024 have been more positive – with a notably larger business (5.7 million risks at year-end 2024 v 4.9 million at year-end 2023), much higher revenue and more positive combined ratios for both years (driven by quite large cumulative price increases since the start of 2023). These factors have contributed to materially higher reported profit in 2024.

    In terms of volumes, after very positive conditions in the market at the start of the year (very large new business volumes and very competitive Admiral prices), the environment became tougher from Q2 onwards, with prices drifting down quite steadily. Confidence in our loss ratios meant we were able to reduce prices around the start of 2024 (ahead of the market) and in H2 as well (partly to pass the benefits of the new discount rates to our customers), but inevitably our growth in the second half was lower than in H1.

    Personal Injury Discount Rates

    As we explain more fully later in the report, the Discount Rate for all parts of the UK changed during 2024, resulting in lower projected costs of large open claims. We estimate that in today’s money, the total (positive) impact on profit is around £150 million (emphasis on estimate) of which £100 million has been recognised in 2024.

    Investments

    Much larger balances (£5.2 billion at year-end ’24 v £4.2 billion year-end ’23) due to strong revenue growth combined with a higher yield (4.0% for 2024 v 3.3% for 2023 as the portfolio has been reinvested over the past couple of years) led to investment income for 2024 of £182 million, our highest ever.

    More details on the portfolio are set out later in the report, but there’s been no change in our approach and only small changes in the asset allocation. Obviously very subject to what happens to market interest rates and spreads, we’d expect the yield shown in the income statement to continue to increase but much more gradually in 2025.

    Italy

    In a generally very positive year, it’s fair to call out the ConTe result as a disappointment. ConTe has been steadily profitable since 2014, and the loss for the year (£23 million compared to a profit in 2023 of £7 million) was obviously not in our plan. The disappointing performance came about, partly, because of an update to the Milan Court tables (used to determine the cost of many injury claims), but also because of some adverse experience, notably from some business written in 2023.

    Our management team (along with pretty much the whole business) is very focused on restoring profitability through various actions as soon as possible, and I’m confident they’ll achieve this. It might well come at the cost of some volume in the very short term, though we’re still confident in ConTe’s prospects.

    At the risk of upsetting some of our terrific management teams, let me also call out a few other high points:

    • Partly benefiting from lower than budgeted weather cost in 2024 (but also see an improving attritional loss ratio), UK Household Insurance reported its largest profit of £34 million. The team has also been well focused on the migration of the acquired More Than renewal rights portfolio as well as organic growth as we close in fast on two million policies
    • After some quite bruising years in the US, huge credit goes to our team in Elephant Auto who have very much met their goal of materially improving the bottom line in 2024. The result swung impressively from a loss of £20 million to a profit of £14 million due to a much better loss ratio and a very solid expense outcome. And whilst acknowledging the portfolio has shrunk as a consequence, this is a pleasing turnaround and we’re very proud of the team’s work
    • Veygo (mainly offering short-term car insurance in the UK) is possibly the Group’s fastest growing business, reporting revenue of £64 million in 2024 (with a very healthy three-year CAGR of 45%) and also returned its first (albeit small in the Group context) profit
    • Our French motor insurer L’olivier reported its highest profit of £11 million (2023: £7 million). With turnover above €260 million and a solid combined ratio, we’re positive about the future in France
    • And finally – partly stretching timeframe of the report – I’m very happy that Admiral Money has, in early 2025, signed its first deal to use third-party capital to grow the personal loan business – we think this is an important part of the model for the future

    Internal capital model

    As part of the process to ultimately use our own capital model to calculate our capital requirement, Admiral entered the pre-application phase (focused on UK car insurance) with the two main prudential regulators in mid-2024. We received feedback late in the year and are working to address that as well as finalise the other aspects of the model before submitting our full application. Lots of hard work is continuing on this important but complex project and we’ll update on progress in due course.

    Looking ahead to 2025

    We move into the new year well-placed for continued positive results. There are one or two challenges for sure (a competitive market in UK motor and the need to restore profit in Italy to name two), but particularly noting the prudent claims reserves position in all lines of business at the end of 2024, we expect strong releases and profit to flow into 2025 and beyond. Subject to market conditions, we’re still hoping to grow in pretty much all our operations too.

    Big thanks to all Admiral colleagues for helping to achieve these great results!

    Geraint Jones

    Group Chief Financial Officer

    5 March 2025

    £m 2024 2023 Change vs 2023
    UK Insurance 977 597 +380
    UK Insurance (Ogden -0.25%) 877 597 +280
    Europe Insurance (20) 2 -22
    US Insurance 14 (20) +34
    Admiral Money 13 10 +3
    Share scheme cost (62) (54) -8
    Other costs including Admiral Pioneer (83) (92) +9
    Pre-tax profit 839 443 +396
    Pre-tax profit (Ogden -0.25%) 739 443 +296

    2024 Group overview

    £m 2024 2023 % change vs. 20234
    Group turnover (£bn)1 3 6.15 4.81 +28%
    Net insurance and investment result 798.7 363.1 +120%
    Net interest income from financial services 76.3 68.1 +12%
    Other income and expenses (9.3) 31.7 nm
    Operating profit 865.7 462.9 +87%
    Group profit before tax 839.2 442.8 +90%
           
    Analysis of profit      
    UK Insurance 976.7 596.5 +64%
    UK Insurance (Ogden -0.25%) 876.4 596.5 +47%
    International Insurance (5.3) (18.0) +71%
    International Insurance – European Motor (14.8) 6.1 nm
    International Insurance – US Motor 14.4 (19.6) nm
    International Insurance – Other (4.9) (4.5) -10%
    Admiral Money 13.0 10.2 +28%
    Other (145.2) (145.9) +1%
    Group profit before tax 839.2 442.8 +90%
    Group profit before tax (Ogden -0.25%) 738.9 442.8 +67%
           
    Key metrics      
    Reported Group loss ratio1 2 +55.4% +63.9% -9pts
    Reported Group expense ratio1 2 +22.0% +24.8% -3pts
    Reported Group combined ratio1 2 +77.4% +88.7% -11pts
    Reported Group combined ratio (Ogden -0.25%) +79.7% +88.7% -9pts
    Insurance service margin1 2 +16.2% +10.2% +6pts
    Customer numbers (million)1 11.10 9.73 +14%
           
    Earnings per share 216.6 111.2 +95%
    Earnings per share (Ogden -0.25%) 190.2 111.2 +71%
    Dividend per share 192.0 103.0 +86%
    Return on equity1 56% 36% +20pts
    Solvency ratio1 +203% +200% +3pts

    1 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to the end of the report for definition and explanation.

    2 Reported Group loss and expense ratios are calculated on a basis inclusive of all insurance revenue – this includes insurance premium revenue net of excess of loss reinsurance, plus revenue from underwritten ancillaries and an allocation of instalment and administration fees/related commissions. See glossary for an explanation of the ratios and Appendix 1a for a reconciliation of reported loss and expense ratios, and insurance service margin, to the financial statements.

    3 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to note 14 for explanation and reconciliation to statutory income statement measures.

    4 Definition: nm – not meaningful.

    Group highlights

    Admiral reports strong growth in turnover and customer numbers and significantly higher profits in 2024.

    • Group customer numbers increased by 14% and turnover was 28% higher, driven by UK Motor Insurance
    • Group pre-tax profit was £839 million, 90% higher than 2023 as a result of a significantly improved current year underwriting performance and continued significant prior period releases, notably in the UK Motor Insurance business. Excluding the impact of the change in Personal Injury (‘Ogden’) Discount Rate (see below), pre-tax profit would have been £739 million, 67% higher than 2023
    • Strong growth in UK Household pre-tax profit to £34 million (2023: £8 million). A relatively benign year for weather and an improved attritional loss year resulted in a favourable current year loss ratio
    • Completion of the acquisition of the More Than direct UK Household and Pet Insurance renewal rights; renewals started to transfer to Admiral in the second half of 2024
    • A lower overall loss in International Insurance (£5 million v £18 million), including a profit of £14 million in US motor, which was offset by a loss of £20 million in Europe
    • Continued growth in Admiral Money profit to £13 million (2023: £10 million) and gross loan balances (+23% year-on-year growth).

    Earnings per share

    Earnings per share for 2024 were 216.6 pence (2023: 111.2 pence). The increase from 2023 is higher than the increase in pre-tax profit above due to a slightly lower effective tax rate.

    Return on equity

    Return on equity was 56% for 2024, 20 percentage points higher than the 36% reported for 2023. The increase is the result of the significantly higher post-tax profits, partially offset by higher average equity.

    Dividends

    The Group’s dividend policy is to pay 65% of post-tax profits as a normal dividend and to pay a further special dividend comprising earnings not required to be held in the Group for solvency, buffers or purchasing shares for the Group’s employee share plans. No shares are expected to be purchased for the share plans until 2026.

    The Board has proposed a final dividend of 121.0 pence per share (approximately £366.6 million) splits as follows:

    • 91.4 pence per share normal dividend
    • A special dividend of 29.6 pence per share.

    The 2024 final dividend reflects a pay-out ratio of 87% of second half earnings per share. 121.0 pence per share is 133% higher than the final 2023 dividend (52.0 pence per share), in line with the growth in earnings per share.

    The 2024 final dividend payment date is 13 June 2025, ex-dividend date 15 May 2025, and record date 16 May 2025.

    Economic background

    Whilst remaining higher than its long-term average, the elevated inflation observed over the course of 2022 and 2023 started to reduce in 2024. Price increases implemented to mitigate the impact of the higher inflation in the Group’s main UK business in 2022 and 2023 have resulted in a strong current year underwriting performance compared to the prior year.

    Admiral continues to focus on medium-term profitability and has maintained a disciplined approach to business volumes. The Group’s customer base in UK Motor grew significantly at the start of 2024 as a result of price reductions ahead of the market, with market competition increasing in the second half. The Group continues to set claims reserves cautiously.

    Admiral Money has continued to grow its consumer loans book, with a cautious approach to growth and evolving underwriting criteria to reflect the macroeconomic environment and potential financial impact on consumers. The business continues to hold appropriately cautious provisions for credit losses.

    Change in UK personal injury discount rate (‘Ogden’)

    The discount rate, which is used in setting personal injury compensation (referred to throughout the report as ‘Ogden’), changed to +0.5% across the UK in H2 2024.

    In Scotland and NI, the discount rate changed from -0.75% to +0.5%, effective from September 2024. In England and Wales, it was announced in December 2024 that the discount rate would change to +0.5% from the existing -0.25% rate, effective from 11 January 2025. The +0.5% rate is expected to remain in place for up to the next five years.

    Given the announcements were made in 2024, the Group has updated its insurance contract liabilities to reflect the new rate. The impact of the change in rate is an increase in 2024 pre-tax profits of £100 million (with the ultimate profit impact estimated to be around £150 million).

    UK Insurance Review – Alistair Hargreaves, CEO UK Insurance

    It is a great privilege and responsibility to be appointed UK Insurance CEO and I’m fortunate that in writing this statement, I’m able to reflect on the UK Insurance teams’ many achievements in 2024, a very positive year. Our disciplined approach to managing uncertainty and the motor market cycle, alongside enhancements to propositions, pricing, claims and customer experience, helped us to welcome 1.4 million new customers, sustain our market-leading combined ratio and deliver £977 million profit before tax, while improving our Trustpilot customer rating to an industry-leading 4.6.

    In motor, price is the primary customer consideration. This was especially true in 2024 after the recent sustained period of elevated claims inflation drove market premiums up and motor insurance affordability made the headlines. Our discipline throughout 2022 and 2023, where we increased prices ahead of competitors and sacrificed growth, paid off in 2024. We were able to start reducing rates in early 2024, ahead of the market, and our competitive prices resulted in a 15% increase in motor policies to a record 5.7 million. This was achieved whilst maintaining strong service levels and repair times due to the strength of our repair network partners. UK Motor turnover grew by £1.1 billion in 2024 to £4.5 billion and profit before tax increased to £955 million, driven by our strong performance as well as a c.£100 million reserving benefit from the recent change to the Ogden discount rate, which impacts large personal injury claims. We passed the benefits from the new Ogden rate going forward to our customers by lowering prices accordingly the day after the announcement in December.

    Beyond Motor, our strong MultiCover proposition supported further growth in our Household insurance business, despite continued rate increases offsetting claims inflation. The integration of the ‘More Than’ Pet and Home renewal rights from Royal Sun Alliance (RSA) is going well. The customer migration runs over 12 months and started in the summer of 2024. This has given a boost to our Household business, which finished the year with just under two million customers, and led to a significant acceleration for Pet with more than 200,000 policies. The renewal process will continue through to the summer of 2025. Our Travel business grew both new business and renewals with strong underwriting discipline leading to a small but growing profit.

    We continue to invest to further improve customer journeys and maintain our market-leading insurance expertise. In 2024, we drove improvements in speed, both in feature development sprints and deploying machine-learning models across pricing, claims, and customer experience. This is supported by the fact that over 80% of our estate is now cloud-based. We are pleased with the continued growth of our digital experience, which enables customers to engage with us in the most convenient way for them. We give customers the choice to self-serve digitally, and half of mid-term changes and a third of claims notifications are now made this way. In Motor, our investment in customer proposition and claims is supporting strong growth in insured electric vehicles where we continue to be one of the industry leaders with a high teens market share.

    The driving force of our business is our culture and people, we were pleased to, again, have been listed in the Top 10 for both Great Places to Work and for Great Places to Work for Women. One element of our culture, which I’m particularly proud of, is our continued support of our communities. In 2024, our colleagues spent over 30,000 hours helping over a thousand people to secure work or to gain new skills with funding and support for our community partners.

    2024 has been a remarkable year for UK Insurance, and by delivering for our customers we’ve taken the opportunity to grow. Looking ahead, some uncertainty remains around near-term market dynamics, but our strong team and fundamentals give us a great platform to continue to provide value, ease and trust for customers and in doing so make the most of opportunities for sustainable profitable growth in 2025 and beyond.

    UK Insurance financial performance

    £m 2024 2023
    Turnover1 2 5,108.5 3,776.0
    Total premiums written1 4,745.2 3,502.6
    Insurance revenue 3,873.4 2,596.9
    Underwriting result1 764.4 383.4
    Net investment income 70.5 55.2
    Co-insurer profit commission and net other revenue 141.8 157.9
    UK Insurance profit before tax1 976.7 596.5

    Segment result: UK Insurance profit before tax1

    £m 2024 2023
    Motor 955.1 593.3
    Motor (Ogden -0.25%) 854.8 593.3
    Household 34.1 7.9
    Travel and Pet (12.5) (4.7)
    UK Insurance profit before tax 976.7 596.5
    UK Insurance profit before tax (Ogden -0.25%) 876.4 596.5

    Segment performance indicators1

      2024 2023
    Vehicles insured 5.69m 4.94m
    Households insured 1.97m 1.76m
    Travel and Pet policies 1.14m 0.69m
    Total UK Insurance customers 8.80m 7.39m

    1 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to the end of this report for definition and explanation.

    2 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to note 14 for explanation and reconciliation to statutory income statement measures.

    Highlights for the UK Insurance business include:

    • In UK Motor:
      • A 15% increase in customer numbers, driven by reducing prices ahead of the market around the start of the year, after a period of prices moving higher to address significant claims cost inflation in the past few years
      • The increase in customers, combined with higher premiums, resulted in a 33% rise in turnover, and a 50% rise in insurance revenue
      • Profit of £955 million was 61% higher than 2023, driven by the resulting improved current year combined ratio and continued positive reserve releases, as well as the favourable impact of the Ogden Discount Rate change. Excluding the Ogden change, profit would have been £855 million, 44% higher than 2023.
    • In UK Household:
      • An increase in customer numbers of 12% to 1.97 million (31 December 2023: 1.76 million). Growth continued, particularly in the second half of 2024 when rate increases in response to inflation eased, resulting in increased competitiveness
      • Profit grew strongly to £34 million (2023: £8 million) as a result of a positive current period combined ratio driven by higher earned premiums, a relatively benign year for severe weather, an improved attritional loss year plus continued prior period releases.
    • In UK Travel and Pet Insurance:
      • Both business lines continued to grow their customer base and turnover
      • Travel delivers second consecutive annual profit, whilst there was an increased loss in Pet due to both integration costs (primarily IT) in relation to the More Than acquisition of £6.3 million, and the premium written as a result of More Than renewals not yet earning through
    • More Than acquisition:
      • In March 2024, the Group successfully completed its first significant acquisition, of the direct UK Household and Pet insurance renewal rights of the More Than brand and the transfer of over 280 colleagues from RSA. Liabilities relating to existing policies and those up to renewal remain with RSA
    • The integration of the business is now largely complete, with renewals having commenced in July 2024 for Household and in August 2024 for Pet
    • The 2024 UK Insurance results, therefore, include an impact of £11.9 million of integration costs in relation to the acquired business. See note 13 to the financial statements for further details.

    UK Motor Insurance financial review

    UK Motor profit in 2024 was £955 million, 61% higher than 2023. Excluding the impact of the change in the Ogden Discount Rate, UK Motor profit was £855 million, 44% higher than 2023. This increase is the result of an improved current period combined ratio (driven by higher average premiums earning through), along with continued positive development of prior year claims, partly offset by recognising the reinsurer’s share of releases on underwriting years 2021-2023.

    In addition, favourable net investment income is driven by higher yields and investment balances.

    £m 2024 2023
    Turnover1 4,495.9 3,371.8
    Total premiums written1 2 4,157.7 3,118.2
    Insurance premium revenue1 3,160.5 2,115.4
    Other insurance revenue 209.0 134.8
    Insurance revenue 3,369.5 2,250.2
    Insurance revenue net of XoL2 4 3,271.4 2,188.6
    Insurance expenses1 2 3 (586.8) (451.2)
    Insurance claims incurred net of XoL2 4 (2,078.1) (1,729.0)
    Insurance claims releases net of XoL2 4 374.6 392.8
    Quota share reinsurance result2 3 (228.8) (16.8)
    Movement in onerous loss component net of reinsurance2 1.1 4.1
    Underwriting result2 753.4 388.5
    Investment income 150.0 111.8
    Net insurance finance expenses (83.4) (58.2)
    Net investment income 66.6 53.6
    Co-insurer profit commission 53.3 76.5
    Other net income 81.8 74.7
    UK Motor Insurance profit before tax1 955.1 593.3
    UK Motor Insurance profit before tax (Ogden -0.25%) 854.8 593.3

    Segment performance indicators

      2024 2023
    Reported Motor loss ratio1 2 5 52.1% 61.1%
    Reported Motor expense ratio1 2 5 17.9% 20.6%
    Reported Motor combined ratio1 2 5 70.0% 81.7%
    Reported Motor combined ratio (Ogden -0.25%)1 73.2% 81.7%
    Reported Motor Insurance service margin1 2 5 23.0% 17.7%
    Core motor loss ratio before releases1 2 6 69.2% 87.0%
    Core motor claims releases1 2 6 (12.7)% (20.2)%
    Core motor loss ratio1 2 6 56.5% 66.8%
    Core motor expense ratio1 2 6 18.2% 21.4%
    Core motor combined ratio1 6 74.7% 88.2%
    Core motor written expense ratio1 2 7 16.8% 17.8%
    Vehicles insured at period end1 2 5.69m 4.94m
    Other revenue per vehicle2 8 £76 £62

    1 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to the end of this report for definition and explanation.

    2 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to Appendix 1b for explanation and reconciliation to statutory income statement measures.

    3 Insurance expenses and quota share reinsurance result excludes gross and reinsurers’ share of share scheme charges respectively. Share scheme charges reported in Other Group Items.

    4 XoL refers to Excess of Loss (non-proportional) reinsurance; see glossary at end of report for further information.

    5 Reported Motor loss ratio, expense ratio and insurance service margin are all net of XoL, as defined in the glossary. Reconciliation in Appendix 1b.

    6 Core Motor loss ratio, expense ratio and combined ratio are all net of XoL, as defined in the glossary. Reconciliation in Appendix 1b.

    7 Core motor written expense ratio defined as insurance expenses divided by core product written insurance premium, net of excess of loss reinsurance.

    8 Other revenue per vehicle includes other revenue included within insurance revenue. See ‘Other Revenue’ section for explanation.

    Claims

    Claims inflation continues to show signs of gradually reducing, with Admiral’s current estimate of average claims cost inflation for full-year 2024 (compared to full-year 2023) being approximately in mid-to-high single-digits (2023: around 10%). Despite the significant growth in policy base, a small reduction in claims frequency has been observed.

    As usual, the longer-term impacts of inflation on bodily injury claims remain uncertain. Admiral did not observe material changes in inflation for bodily injury claims settled in 2024, when compared to 2023. We maintain a prudent allowance held in the best estimate reserve to reflect potential impacts of higher than historic levels of future wage inflation on certain elements of large bodily injury claims reserves.

    There is still uncertainty within motor claims across the market arising from inflation, and future developments relating to both whiplash reforms, and regulatory developments. As noted above, the new Ogden discount rate of +0.5%, as announced in December 2024, has been used within the best estimate reserves.

    In line with the FCA’s multi-firm review into total loss claims valuations, Admiral is conducting a review of its total loss and related processes, which considers current practice and customer outcomes in the recent past. The work is in the process of being finalised, with the conclusion that some action is required.

    Although uncertainty remains over the final position, when fully concluded, the cost is not expected to have a significant impact on the financial statements. Taking account of current information, appropriate amounts are included within insurance contract liabilities at 31 December.

    Admiral continues to hold a significant and prudent risk adjustment above best estimate reserves, with an increase in the confidence level to the 95th percentile (93rd percentile at 31 December 2023). When setting the level of risk adjustment due consideration has been given to the strong releases in the best estimate, inherent uncertainty in bodily injury claims, growth in the UK motor book along with an assessment of other external factors. There has been a slight reduction in the volatility of the reserve risk distribution from which the percentile is selected as a result of the strong reserve releases following the change in Ogden discount rate; otherwise it has not changed significantly since 2023.

    The core motor loss ratio has reduced to 56.5% (2023: 66.8%) with offsetting movements in the current period loss ratio and prior year reserve releases, as follows:

    Core Motor loss ratio1 2 Core motor loss ratio before releases Impact of claims reserve releases Core motor loss ratio
    FY 2023 87.0% (20.2)% 66.8%
    Change in current period loss ratio excluding Ogden (16.9)% —% (16.9)%
    Change in claims reserve release excluding Ogden —% 10.2% 10.2%
    Impact of Ogden discount rate change (0.9)% (2.7)% (3.6)%
    FY 2024 69.2% (12.7)% 56.5%

    1 Reported Motor loss ratio shown on a discounted basis, excluding unwind of finance expenses

    2 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to Appendix 1b for explanation and reconciliation to statutory income statement measures.

    The rate increases that were implemented over the course of 2022 and 2023, as well as favourable frequency in 2024, have driven a significant improvement in the current period loss ratio.

    The benefit from prior-period releases includes both the positive development of the best estimate reserve and the unwind of risk adjustment for prior-period claims. The absolute value of releases is consistent with 2023, with higher releases on the best estimate arising from significant favourable development, along with the benefit from the Ogden rate change, being offset by lower releases of risk adjustment given the increase in risk adjustment percentile. The lower release percentage is a result of significantly increased earned premiums.

    Quota share reinsurance

    Admiral’s quota share reinsurance result reflects the net movement on ceded premiums, reinsurer margins and expected recoveries (claims and expenses, excluding share scheme charges) for underwriting years on which quota share reinsurance is in place (2021 underwriting year onwards).

    The ‘Group capital structure’ section sets out further details on Admiral’s UK Motor quota share arrangements.

    Quota share reinsurance result1

    £m 2024 2023 Quota share claims asset
    31 December 2024
    2021 and prior (27.2) (55.3) 15.0
    2022 (84.0) 8.2 62.8
    2023 (81.0) 30.3
    2024 (36.6)
    Total (228.8) (16.8) 77.8

    1 Quota share result in underwriting year 2024 includes an £11.1 million re-charge for the reinsurer’s assumed share scheme recoveries, out of other Group costs in line with prior period (2023: £11.1 million)

    The significantly increased quota share charge in 2024 is the result of:

    • Favourable developments in the underlying loss ratios on underwriting years 2021-2023 resulting in the reversal of quota share recoveries previously recognised
    • A charge rather than credit on the most recent underwriting year (2024), as the booked combined ratio is below 100%, which means no quota share recoveries are recognised.

    Co-insurer profit commission

    Co-insurer profit commission of £53.3 million is lower than in 2023 (£76.5 million).

    In 2024, a significant proportion of claims releases are on underwriting years 2021 and 2022, which reduce the losses on those years but do not result in profit commission, given the years are not yet profitable with booked combined ratios of over 100%.

    In addition, the losses on those years are carried forward in line with contractual clauses, suppressing the recognition of profit commission on underwriting years 2023 and also, to a large extent, 2024.

    Net investment income

    Net investment income increased to £66.6 million from £53.6 million, benefiting from higher investment income, which was largely offset by increased net insurance finance expenses.

    Investment income grew by 34% to £150.0 million (2023: £111.8 million), as a result of increased investment balances (due to strong growth in premium collected) and higher average return. Further information on the Group’s investment portfolio and the income generated in the period is provided later in the report.

    Net insurance finance expense reflects the unwind of the discounting benefit recognised when claims are initially incurred. The expense has increased notably in 2024 (£83.4 million; 2023 £58.2 million) as a result of the unwind of discounting benefit recognised from early 2022 onwards, when there was a significant increase in risk-free interest rates. A significant proportion of the insurance finance expense in 2024 relates to claims incurred during 2022 and 2023.

    Other revenue

    Admiral generates other revenue from a portfolio of insurance products that complement the core motor insurance product, and also fees generated over the life of the policy. The most material contributors to other revenue continue to be:

    • Profit earned from Motor policy upgrade products underwritten by Admiral, including breakdown, car hire and personal injury covers
    • Revenue from other insurance products, not underwritten by Admiral
    • Fees such as administration and cancellation fees
    • Interest charged to customers paying for cover in instalments.

    Under IFRS 17, income from underwritten ancillaries and an allocation of instalment income and administration fees in line with Admiral’s gross share of the core motor product premium, are included within Insurance revenue in the underwriting result. The remaining income from instalment income and fees, as well as income from other non-underwritten ancillary products is presented in other net income.

    Overall contribution increased to £321.8 million (2023: £247.3 million), primarily due to the growth in customer numbers in the past year. In particular, more customers along with the increased proportion of customers choosing to pay via monthly payments in the prior period has resulted in higher earned instalment income.

    Other revenue was equivalent to £76 per vehicle (gross of costs), with net other revenue per vehicle at £61 per vehicle, both up compared to 2023 in line with the increased contribution.

    UK Motor Insurance Other revenue

    £m 2024
      Within underwriting result Other net income Total
    Premium and revenue from additional products and fees1 139.8 83.4 223.2
    Instalment income and administration fees2 209.0 45.7 254.7
    Other revenue 348.8 129.1 477.9
    Claims costs and allocated expenses3 (108.8) (47.3) (156.1)
    Net other revenue 240.0 81.8 321.8
    Other revenue per vehicle4     £76
    Other revenue per vehicle net of internal costs     £61
    £m 2023
      Within underwriting result Other net income Total
    Premium and revenue from additional products and fees1 107.8 89.4 197.2
    Instalment income and administration fees2 134.8 29.3 164.1
    Other revenue 242.6 118.7 361.3
    Claims costs and allocated expenses3 (70.0) (44.0) (114.0)
    Net other revenue 172.6 74.7 247.3
    Other revenue per vehicle4     £62
    Other revenue per vehicle net of internal costs     £52

    1 Premium from underwritten ancillaries is recognised within the insurance service result (underwriting result). Other income from non-underwritten products and fees is included within other net income, below the underwriting result but part of the insurance segment result.

    2 Instalment income and administration fees are recognised within insurance revenue (% aligned to Admiral’s share of premium, net of co-insurance) and other revenue (% aligned to co-insurance share of premium).

    3 Claims costs relating to underwritten ancillary products, along with an allocation of related expenses, are recognised within the insurance result. Expenses allocated to the generation of revenue from non-underwritten ancillaries are recognised within other net income.

    4 Other revenue per vehicle (before internal costs) divided by average active vehicles, rolling 12-month basis. Presented here based on all ancillary income.

    UK Household Insurance financial review

    £m 2024 2023
    Turnover1 475.4 338.6
    Total premiums written1 450.3 318.8
    Insurance revenue 399.6 292.8
    Insurance revenue net of XoL1 376.4 275.3
    Insurance expenses1 (102.9) (80.9)
    Insurance claims incurred net of XoL1 (225.7) (199.8)
    Insurance claims releases net of XoL1 37.0 6.4
    Underwriting result, net of XoL reinsurance1 84.8 1.0
    Quota share reinsurance result1 3 (61.2) (1.4)
    Underwriting result1 23.6 (0.4)
    Net insurance investment income 3.9 1.6
    Other income 6.6 6.7
    UK Household Insurance profit before tax1 34.1 7.9

    Segment performance indicators

      2024 2023
    Reported Household loss ratio1 2 50.1% 70.2%
    Reported Household expense ratio1 2 27.3% 29.4%
    Reported Household combined ratio1 2 77.4% 99.6%
    Household insurance service margin2 6.3%         (0.1%)
    Household loss ratio before releases2 60.0% 72.6%
    (Favourable) impact of weather on reported loss ratio vs budget4 (7.9%) (3.8%)
    Households insured at period end 1.97m 1.76m

    1 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to the end of this report for definition and explanation

    2 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to Appendix 1c for explanation and reconciliation to statutory income statement measures.

    3 Quota share reinsurance result within the segment result excludes reinsurers’ share of share scheme costs.

    4 Weather impact, being the combined impact of claims related to freeze, flood, storm and subsidence, is disclosed relative to a budget expectation. The 2023 impact has been restated to align.

    The UK Household Insurance business reported strong growth in turnover of 40% to £475.4 million (2023: £338.6 million). The number of homes insured increased by 12% to 1.97 million (31 December 2023: 1.76 million), despite price increases made by Admiral during 2024, in particular the first half, to reflect continued higher claims inflation. Competitors also increased prices, with Admiral’s competitiveness in price comparison (the main distribution channel for new policies) relatively unchanged.

    Profit before tax for the period was £34.1 million (2023: £7.9 million), the large increase arising as a result of:

    • Strong prior year reserve releases of £37.0 million (2023: £6.4 million), reducing the loss ratio by 9.9 percentage points (2023: 2.4 percentage points). These releases primarily reflect the unwind of best estimate reserves in relation to the freeze events in late 2022, along with some impact from the unwind of storm events in late 2023
    • A lower current period combined ratio, with both a lower loss ratio and expense ratio driven in large part by higher earned premiums.

    The reported loss ratio excluding releases decreased significantly to 60.0% (2023: 72.6%) as a result of the higher earned premiums, along with relatively benign weather and a reduction in claims frequency.

    Weather was relatively benign in both periods. While there was some impact of freeze, flood and storm events, this was considered below a budget expectation, creating a net benefit to the current period loss ratio of just under 8% (2023: 3.8%).

    Despite growth in absolute expenses during the year as the business grew, Admiral’s expense ratio improved to 27.3% (from 29.4%), benefiting from the larger portfolio and the earning through of higher average premiums. Customer growth leading to higher acquisition costs and IT integration costs relating to the More Than acquisition were the primary drivers of the increase in absolute costs.

    The quota share result for the period (a loss of £61.2 million compared to £1.4 million) arises as a result of the proportional sharing of the positive underlying underwriting result, with only a small amount of profit commission recognised to date on underwriting year 2024, due to a relatively cautious view of the written combined ratio.

    International Insurance

    International Insurance – Costantino Moretti – CEO, International Insurance

    In 2024 we continued to prioritise margin over growth, maintaining our pricing discipline which resulted in an improved performance in most of our markets.

    Market conditions improved in France and Spain, with premiums finally increasing to reflect continued claims inflation. Having increased prices ahead of competitors in 2023, the businesses saw their competitiveness improve resulting in an improved performance year-on-year.

    On 1st July, Julien Bouverot was appointed CEO of L’olivier which now insures 453,000 motorists and 83,000 homes. In 2024 the business has increased its turnover and delivered a double-digit profit. The team is also investing in its technological capabilities to make it easier to provide multiproduct propositions for its growing customer base.

    In Spain, Admiral Seguros is making good progress against its distribution diversification strategy which aims to make it easier for customers to access insurance through the channels that best suit them. This approach is yielding positive results with a lower expense ratio despite the investment into new channels.

    2024 was more challenging for ConTe, partly, driven by the update to the Milan Court tables which determine the cost of most bodily injury claims, inflation and because of some adverse experience, notably from some business written in 2023. The management team has already taken material pricing and other remediating actions to restore ConTe to profitability.

    Our team in the US has achieved a great turnaround. Elephant delivered a profit of £14 million due to management’s focus on improving the book mix and cost discipline. The business experienced a shrinkage of book size which is now stabilising.

    We are proud of the team’s hard work. As previously mentioned, we’ve been assessing the strategic options for Elephant. We have made good progress and are in exclusive talks with a potential acquirer.

    Our colleagues’ commitment and dedication to our customers and each other is unmatched, which is why we continue to see positive customer satisfaction scores across the board and our businesses are recognised as Great Places to Work. The combination of our colleagues and management teams’ strategic focus and expertise mean that we are well-placed for a positive 2025.

    International Insurance financial review

    £m 2024 2023
    Turnover1 840.0 894.9
    Total premiums written1 785.7 840.0
    Insurance revenue 829.5 842.6
    Insurance revenue net of XoL1 794.2 811.8
    Insurance expenses1 (236.5) (249.4)
    Insurance claims net of XoL1 (564.5) (565.2)
    Underwriting result, net of XoL1 (6.8) (2.8)
    Quota share reinsurance result1 3 (4.1) (22.1)
    Movement in net onerous loss component 0.4 0.6
    Underwriting result1 (10.5) (24.3)
    Net investment income 6.1 4.3
    Net other revenue (0.9) 2.0
    International Insurance loss before tax1 4 (5.3) (18.0)

    Segment performance indicators        

    £m 2024 2023
    Loss ratio1 2 71.1% 69.6%
    Expense ratio1 2 29.8% 30.7%
    Combined ratio¹ 100.9% 100.3%
    Insurance service margin1 2 (1.3%) (3.0%)
    Customers insured at period end1 2.10m 2.17m

    International Motor Insurance – Geographical analysis1

    2024 Spain Italy France US Total
    Vehicles insured at period end 0.45m 0.96m 0.45m 0.14m 2.00m
    Turnover (£m) 131.8 269.1 224.0 200.1 825.0
               
    2023 Spain Italy France US Total
    Vehicles insured at period end 0.45m 1.04m 0.42m 0.19m 2.10m
    Turnover (£m) 121.8 272.4 219.1 271.2 884.5

    Segment result: International Insurance result1

    £m 2024 2023
    European Motor (14.8) 6.1
    Spain Motor (3.1) (8.6)
    Italy Motor (22.8) 7.3
    France Motor 11.1 7.4
    US Motor 14.4 (19.6)
    Other (4.9) (4.5)
    International Insurance loss before tax (5.3) (18.0)

    1 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to the end of this report for definition and explanation.

    2 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to Appendix 1d for explanation and reconciliation to statutory income statement measures.

    3 Quota share reinsurance result within the segment result excludes reinsurers’ share of share scheme costs.

    4 Costs related to the settlement of a historic Italian tax matter during 2023 are excluded from the International Insurance result and presented within Group other costs, given that these are not reflective of the underlying trading performance of the International Insurance business.

    Admiral’s International insurance businesses reported a 3% reduction in customer numbers at 31 December 2024 to 2.10 million (31 December 2023: 2.17 million), as a result of a continued reduction in the US, and a reduction in Italy following pricing action taken to prioritise margin over growth. Turnover fell to £840.0 million (2023: £894.9 million), driven by a reduction in the US, partially offset by higher turnover in the European businesses as a result of higher average premiums.

    The combined result for the segment improved by around £13 million to a loss of £5.3 million (2023: loss of £18.0 million), driven by a significantly improved result in the US, which was partly offset by the disappointing Italian result.

    The combined ratio increased slightly to 100.9% (2023: 100.3%). An improved expense ratio (30% v 31%) was offset by a higher loss ratio, which was impacted by higher Italian and lower US and other European loss ratios.

    The European insurance operations in Spain, Italy and France insured 1.86 million vehicles at 31 December 2024 – 2% lower than a year earlier (31 December 2023: 1.91 million). Motor turnover was up 2% to £624.9 million (2023: £613.3 million), driven by continued price increases following continued focus on improving loss ratios.

    The combined European Motor loss was £14.8 million (2023: £6.1 million), with the combined ratio increasing to 105.0% (2023: 95.4%) largely a result of the loss of £22.8 million recognised in ConTe in Italy (2023: profit of £7.3 million).

    ConTe’s performance in 2024 was adversely impacted by both the significant increase to the settlement inflation rate for large bodily injury claims provided by the court of Milan (known as the Milan tables) which had an impact of approximately £16 million, and also the impact of continued inflation on claims settlement costs, particularly on business written in 2023. Action has been taken with strong price increases to improve the loss ratio and restore profitability. Vehicles insured decreased by 7% to 0.96 million (2023: 1.04 million) as a result of the pricing action, with turnover decreasing by 1% to £269.1 million (2023: £272.4 million).

    L’olivier assurance (France) continued to grow, with the customer base increasing by 8% to 0.45 million (31 December 2023: 0.42 million), and turnover increasing by 2% to £224.0 million (2023: £219.1 million). The business reported increased profits in 2024 (£11.1 million v £7.4 million) as a result of its focus over the past year on risk selection and loss ratio improvements, as well as cost reduction.

    In Admiral Seguros (Spain) customer numbers were flat at 0.45 million, due to increased prices to target loss and expense ratio improvements. The loss for the year was notably lower (£3.1 million v £8.6 million). Admiral Seguros continues to focus on sustainable growth through distribution diversification in the broker channel and other partnerships alongside its direct offering.

    In the US, Admiral underwrites motor insurance through its Elephant Auto business. Elephant delivered a significantly improved result in 2024 with a profit of £14.4 million (2023: loss of £19.6 million) due to strong management action on pricing, underwriting and expense control.

    In early March 2025, Admiral entered into a memorandum of understanding with a counterparty with a view to signing a purchase agreement to sell Elephant. The agreement, if signed, would be subject to regulatory approval.

    Admiral Money

    Scott Cargill – CEO, Admiral Money

    I’m pleased to be able to say it has been a positive 2024 for Admiral Money. Throughout the year we have retained a firm focus on prime lending and continued to prioritise a controlled and conservative approach to growth. Our book at the end of December stands at £1.17 billion, 23% growth since FY 2023.

    Our gross income of £112.5 million has grown 19% since FY 2023, reflecting the higher average balances through the year. Our book net interest margin finishes the year at a healthy 650bps and our credit performance has been more than satisfactory, with a full year of cost of risk of 2.5%. The outcome of this has been our third consecutive year of growing profits, achieved whilst maintaining an appropriately conservative provision to cover potential credit losses.

    Our NPS score of 75 and Trust Pilot score of 4.4 provide continued evidence that our focus on being an efficient customer-focussed prime lender, providing certainty and transparency to UK customers on their lending needs through offering guaranteed rate solutions, is a successful formula.

    In 2024 we have also continued our focus on being the lender of choice for Admiral Insurance customers. This is a key pillar of our strategy and where we have the most significant competitive advantage. Over 68% of our new customer flows in 2024 came from either current or recent Admiral Insurance customers.

    When we set out Admiral Money’s strategy in 2018, we identified four key ingredients for an ‘Admiral-like’ lender. Over seven years, we have clearly proven three: pricing excellence, expense efficiency, and product differentiation. I’m delighted to see us take our first step towards delivering the fourth, using third-party capital to enhance shareholder returns and manage risk. I’m pleased to confirm our first off-balance-sheet deal, a forward flow agreement consisting of £150 million back book and up to £300 million per annum, transferring loan risk off Admiral’s balance sheet in exchange for origination and servicing fees. This milestone enables future growth beyond the Group’s balance sheet and acts as a model for us to expand participation in consumer lending beyond the current asset classes.

    Looking to 2025, we enter with strong momentum. I expect to see continued growth towards the £1.3 billion on-balance sheet loans, with total loans under management towards £1.6 billion. I’d like to finish by thanking our customers and all of my colleagues and wish everyone the best for 2025.

    Admiral Money financial review

    £m 2024 2023
    Total interest income 112.5 94.7
    Interest expense¹ (43.2) (28.3)
    Net interest income 69.3 66.4
    Other income 0.5 0.1
    Total income 69.8 66.5
    Credit loss charge (26.9) (33.4)
    Expenses (29.9) (22.9)
    Admiral Money profit before tax² 13.0 10.2

    1 Includes £6.1 million intra-group interest expense (2023: £1.5 million).

    2 Alternative Performance Measures – refer to the end of this report for definition and explanation.

    Admiral Money distributes and underwrites unsecured personal loans and car finance products for UK consumers through the comparison channels, credit scoring applications, through car dealerships, and direct to consumers via the Admiral website. The aim of the proposition is to provide customers with affordable guaranteed rates, ensuring transparency and certainty.

    Admiral Money recorded a pre-tax profit of £13.0 million in 2024, improved from £10.2 million profit in 2023, continuing the positive trajectory of growth in both the loan book and profit.

    The business has continued to focus on writing high-quality loans, with the increase in profit largely driven by net interest income growth of 4% to £69.3 million (2023: £66.4 million), as well as a reduced provision charge driven by a focus on high-quality risk selection and positive loss performance. Increased interest expense is driven by market-linked funding instruments and continued investment to support the ongoing growth in the business, partially offset the increased net interest income and lower credit loss charge.

    Gross loans balances totaled £1,174.0 million at the end of the year (31 December 2023: £956.8 million), with a £84.3 million (31 December 2023: £81.7 million) expected credit loss provision. This leads to a net loans balance of £1,089.7 million (31 December 2023: £875.1 million)

    Credit loss models reflect the latest economic assumptions and appropriate post model adjustments remain in place to maintain an appropriately cautious level of provisioning. The provision to loans balance coverage ratio is lower at 7.2% (31 December 2023: 8.5%), with a £2.6 million increase in absolute provision size in the period to £84.3 million. The provision includes lower post model adjustments of £4.6 million (31 December 2023: £9.2 million) reflecting the improved UK economic outlook.

    Admiral Money is funded through a combination of internal and external funding sources. The external funding is secured against certain loans via a transfer of the rights to the cash flows to two special purpose entities (‘SPEs’). The securitisation and subsequent issue of notes via SPEs does not result in a significant transfer of risk from the Group.

    Other Group Items

    Other Group items financial review

    £m 2024 2023
    Share scheme charges (62.2) (54.4)
    Other central costs (51.2) (41.7)
    Admiral Pioneer result (11.3) (16.2)
    Business development costs (20.1) (15.3)
    Finance charges1 (26.4) (20.3)
    Compare.com loss before tax (2.6)
    Sale of shares in Insurify 12.5
    Other interest and investment income 13.5 4.6
    Total (145.2) (145.9)

    1 Finance charges within other Group items include £1.8 million (2023: £1.7 million) that relate to intra-group arrangements,
    with the corresponding income presented within the UK Insurance result.

    Share scheme charges relate to the Group’s two employee share schemes. The increase in charge in the period is driven primarily by both higher vesting assumptions and increases in bonuses tied to dividends paid in the year.

    Other central costs consist of Group-related expenses and include an allocation of Group employee costs as well as the cost of a number of significant Group projects. In 2024, these include the cost of a one-off employee bonus of approximately £8 million, along with higher project costs for the internal capital model development and the strategic review of the US Insurance business. In addition, central Group employee expenses increased relative to 2023.

    Admiral launched Admiral Pioneer in 2020 to focus on new product diversification opportunities. Pioneer businesses include Veygo (short-term and learner driver car insurance in the UK) and Admiral Business (small business insurance in the UK). Pioneer’s businesses reported a lower loss of £11.3 million in 2024 (2023: £16.2 million). The 2023 result was impacted by adverse large claims experienced in Veygo (one large claim in particular); the improvement in 2024 arises from continued growth and better claims experience, with Veygo reporting its first profit. The overall loss in Admiral Pioneer reflects continued investment in the development of new products, including for example, the partnership with Insurtech fleet insurer Flock, entered into in 2024.

    Business development costs increased to £20.1 million (2023: £15.3 million), primarily as a result of non-recurring transaction and other costs of £6.5 million related to the More Than acquisition.

    Finance charges of £26.4 million (2023: £20.3 million) primarily related to interest on the £250 million subordinated notes issued in July 2023 at a rate of 8.5%, with the charge in 2023 based on the original £200 million subordinated loan notes issued in July 2014. The increase in finance charges is largely offset by the increase in other interest and investment income, which arises primarily from the higher interest rate environment, with 2023 also including a loss on disposal of £3.6 million.

    A loss of £2.6 million was attributed to compare.com in 2023 following its disposal. As part of the disposal, the Group received shares as a minority interest shareholder of the acquirer. In 2024, the Group sold those shares, realising a one-off gain of £12.5 million.

    Group capital structure and financial position

    The Group manages its capital to ensure that all entities are able to continue as going concerns and that regulated entities comfortably meet regulatory capital requirements. Surplus capital within subsidiaries is paid up to the Group holding company in the form of dividends.

    The Group’s regulatory capital is based on the Solvency II Standard Formula, with a capital add-on to reflect recognised limitations in the Standard Formula with respect to Admiral’s business, predominantly in respect of profit commission arrangements in co-insurance and reinsurance agreements.

    Admiral continues to develop its partial internal model to form the basis of calculating capital requirements post-approval. This programme is ongoing with regular engagement with the regulator on the application process and timing.

    The current approved capital add-on is £24 million.

    The estimated and unaudited Solvency ratio for the Group at the date of this report is as follows:

    Group capital position (estimated and unaudited)

    £bn 2024 2023
    Eligible Own Funds (post-dividend)1 1.74 1.42
    Solvency II capital requirement2 0.86 0.71
    Surplus over capital requirement 0.88 0.71
    Solvency ratio (post-dividend)3 203% 200%

    1 Own Funds include approximately £250 million of Tier 2 capital following the Group’s issue of ten-year subordinated loan notes.

    2 Solvency capital requirement includes updated, unapproved capital add-on.

    3 Solvency ratio calculated on a volatility adjusted basis.

    The Group’s solvency ratio is slightly improved compared with the closing position of 2023 at 203% (2023: 200%). Own funds increased following continued strong generation of economic capital in the core UK motor business as a result of the positive current period underwriting performance of UK Motor and prior period releases, including the impact of the change in Ogden discount rate, which offset a reduction of around 11 points of solvency ratio following the de-recognition of intangible assets recognised in the More Than acquisition due to Solvency II rules, and a higher foreseeable dividend.

    The SCR also increased over the year, though to a lesser extent. The increase of approximately £150 million was primarily due to the increase in premiums across all Group businesses and the associated impact on underwriting and operational risk elements of the capital requirement. The estimated solvency ratio including the fixed Group capital add-on of £24 million, that is calculated at the balance sheet date rather than the date of this report, and is expected to be reported in the Group’s 2024 Solvency and Financial Condition Report (SFCR) is as follows:

    Regulatory solvency ratio (estimated and unaudited) 2024 2023
    Solvency ratio as reported above 203% 200%
    Change in valuation date1 (9%) (11%)
    Other (including impact of updated, unapproved capital add-on) 4% (6%)
    Solvency ratio to be reported (SFCR) 198% 183%

    Solvency ratio sensitivities

      2024 2023
    UK Motor – incurred loss ratio +5% (26%) (11%)
    UK Motor – 1-in-200 catastrophe event (3%) (1%)
    UK Household – 1-in-200 catastrophe event (3%) (5%)
    Interest rate – yield curve up 100 bps (1%) (1%)
    Interest rate – yield curve down 100 bps —% 1%
    Credit spreads widen 100 bps (2%) (5%)
    Currency – 10% (2023: 25%) movement in euro and US dollar (2%) (3%)
    ASHE – long-term inflation assumption up 100 bps (6%) (3%)
    Loans – 100% weighting to ‘severe’ scenario2 (1%) (1%)

    1 The solvency ratio reported above includes additional own funds generated post-year-end up to the date of this report.

    2 Refer to note 7 to the financial statements for further information on the ‘severe’ scenario.

    The increased sensitivity of the incurred loss ratio stress is the result of the growth in premium exposure and relatively profitability of the most recent underwriting year, whilst the increased sensitivity to ASHE is due to both a slight increase in settled periodic payment orders (PPOs), and higher PPO propensity assumptions following the change in Ogden.

    Investments and cash

    Investment strategy

    Admiral Group’s investment strategy focuses on capital preservation and low volatility of returns relative to liabilities, and follows an asset liability matching strategy to control interest rate, inflation and currency risk. A prudent level of liquidity is held and the investment portfolio has a high-quality credit profile. In 2024, the focus remained on matching, and cashflows were invested into high-quality assets to take advantage of healthy risk-free rates, whilst being appropriately cautious on the credit outlook. The Group holds a range of government bonds, corporate bonds, alternative and private credit assets, alongside liquid holdings in cash and money market funds.

    A further aim of the strategy is to reduce the Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) related risks in the portfolio whilst continuing to achieve sustainable long-term returns. In 2024, the portfolio weighted average ESG score was upgraded to an MSCI AAA rating.

    Total investment income for 2024 was £175.6 million (2023: £126.7 million).

    The investment return on the Group’s investment portfolio (excluding unrealised gains and losses and the movement in provision for expected credit losses) was £182.1 million (2023: £124.4 million). The annualised rate of return was higher at 4.0% (2023: 3.3%) mainly as a result of higher investment yields, with the increased income driven by a combination of the higher yield and increased asset balances following the growth in the business.

    Investment return

    £m 2024 2023
    Underlying investment income yield 4.0% 3.3%
    Investment return 182.1 124.4
    Unrealised losses on derivatives (0.2) (0.2)
    Movement in provision for expected credit losses (6.3) 2.5
    Total investment return 175.6 126.7

    Cash and investments analysis

    £m 2024 2023
    Fixed income and debt securities 3,335.4 2,825.9
    Money market funds and other fair value through P&L investments 1,421.0 918.8
    Cash deposits 91.7 116.7
    Cash 313.6 353.1
    Total¹ 5,161.7 4,214.5

    1 Total Cash and Investments includes £354.5 million (2023: £278.2 million) of Level 3 investments. Refer to note 6d in the financial statements for further information.

    Cashflow

    £m 2024 2023
    Operating cashflow, before movements in investments 1,303.4 697.5
    Transfers to financial investments (810.3) (285.5)
    Operating cashflow 493.1 412.0
    Tax payments (124.1) (133.0)
    Investing cashflows (capital expenditure) (144.2) (75.9)
    Financing cashflows (436.0) (216.7)
    Loans funding through special purpose entity 178.1 44.9
    Foreign currency translation impact (6.4) 24.8
    Net cash movement (39.5) 56.1
    Unrealised gains on investments 11.4 98.1
    Movement in accrued interest, foreign exchange and unrealised gains on derivatives 165.0 69.0
    Net increase in cash and financial investments 947.2 508.7

    The main items contributing to the operating cash inflow are as follows:

    £m 2024 2023
    Profit after tax 662.9 337.2
    Change in net insurance contract liabilities 606.5 309.5
    Net change in trade receivables and liabilities 46.3 (42.3)
    Change in loans and advances to customers (231.4) (73.6)
    Non-cash Income Statement items 42.8 61.1
    Taxation expense 176.3 105.6
    Operating cashflow, before movements in investments 1,303.4 697.5

    The Group continues to generate significant amounts of cash, particularly notable during 2024, and its capital-efficient business model enables the distribution of the majority of post-tax profits as dividends. Total cash and investments at 31 December 2024 was £5,161.7 million (31 December 2023: £4,214.5 million), the increase reflecting the collections from higher written premium in UK Insurance.

    The net increase in cash and investments in the period is £947.2 million (2023: increase of £508.7 million).

    Taxation

    The tax charge for the period is £176.3 million (2023: £105.6 million), which equates to 21.0% (2023: 23.8%) of profit before tax. The tax rate in 2023 was impacted by the settlement of a non-recurring historic Italian tax matter. In addition, in 2024, a greater proportion of profits has arisen in the Group’s businesses outside the UK, leading to the lower effective tax rate. See note 10 to the financial statements for further details.

    Co-insurance and reinsurance

    Admiral makes significant use of proportional risk sharing agreements, where insurers outside the Group underwrite a majority of the risk generated, either through co-insurance or quota share reinsurance contracts. These arrangements include profit commission terms which allow Admiral to retain a significant portion of the profit generated.

    Although the primary focus and disclosure is in relation to the UK Motor Insurance book, similar longer-term arrangements are in place in the Group’s International Insurance operations and the UK Household and Van businesses.

    UK Motor Insurance

    Munich Re and its subsidiary entity, Great Lakes, currently underwrite 40% of the UK Car business. From 2022, 20% of this total is on a co-insurance basis (via Great Lakes) and will extend to 2029. The remaining 20% is on a quota share reinsurance basis and these arrangements now extend to 2026.

    The Group also has other quota share reinsurance arrangements confirmed to at least 2025 covering 38% of the business written.

    The nature of the co-insurance proportion underwritten by Munich Re (via Great Lakes) in the UK is such that 20% of all Car premium and claims accrue directly to Great Lakes and are not reflected in the Group’s financial statements. Similarly, Great Lakes reimburses the Group for its proportional share of expenses incurred in acquiring and administering this business.

    Admiral’s UK Motor quota share reinsurance arrangements result in all premiums, claims and expenses that are ceded to reinsurers being included within the quota share result in the Group’s financial statements, with a recovery recognised where years are not yet profitable.

    These agreements operate on a funds withheld basis with Admiral retaining ceded premium (net of the reinsurer margin), which then covers claims and expenses. If an underwriting year is not profitable, investment income is allocated to the withheld fund and used to delay the point at which cash recoveries are collected from the reinsurer. Other features of the arrangements include expense ratio caps and commutation options for Admiral that become available 24-36 months after the start of the underwriting year.

    Admiral tends to commute its UK Car Insurance quota share reinsurance contracts 24-36 months after inception of an underwriting year, assuming there is sufficient confidence in the profitability of the business covered by the reinsurance contract.

    In 2024, there were commutations of a small number of remaining contracts from underwriting years 2017-2020. All arrangements covering the 2020 and prior underwriting years have now been commuted. In addition, a majority of contracts from underwriting year 2021 have been commuted during 2024. There was no significant impact on profit before tax as a result of the commutations.

    UK Household Insurance

    The Group’s Household business is supported by long-term proportional reinsurance arrangements covering 70% of the risk, that runs to at least 2027. In addition, the Group has non-proportional reinsurance to cover the risk of catastrophes stemming from weather events.

    International Car Insurance

    In 2023 and 2024, Admiral retained 35% (Italy), 30% (France), 30% (Spain), and 40% (2023) and 60% (2024) (US) of the underwriting risk in each country, respectively. In 2025, Admiral will retain 60% of the underwriting risk in Italy and 100% of the underwriting risk in the US, with the retained share in France and Spain unchanged.

    Excess of loss reinsurance

    The Group also purchases excess of loss reinsurance to provide protection against large claims and reviews this cover annually. The UK Motor excess of loss cover in 2024 remained similar to prior years with cover starting at £10 million.

    Principal Risks and Uncertainties

    The Group’s 2024 Annual Report will contain an analysis of the Principal Risks and Uncertainties identified in the Group’s Enterprise Risk Management Framework, along with the impacts of those risks and actions taken to mitigate them.

    Disclaimer on forward-looking statements

    Certain statements made in this announcement are forward-looking statements. Such statements are based on current expectations and assumptions and are subject to a number of known and unknown risks and uncertainties that may cause actual events or results to differ materially from any expected future events or results expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements.

    Persons receiving this announcement should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Unless otherwise required by applicable law, regulation or accounting standard, the Group does not undertake to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future developments or otherwise.

    Consolidated Income Statement
    For the year ended 31 December 2024

        Year ended
      Note 31 December
    2024
    £m
    31 December
    2023
    £m 1
           
    Insurance revenue 5 4,776.2 3,486.1
    Insurance service expenses 5 (3,547.5) (3,093.2)
    Insurance service result before reinsurance   1,228.7 392.9
    Net expense from reinsurance contracts held 5 (518.4) (87.1)
    Insurance service result   710.3 305.8
    Investment return – Effective interest rate 6 106.3 81.1
    Investment return – Other 6 74.6 41.8
    Investment return 6 180.9 122.9
    Finance expenses from insurance contracts issued 5 (128.4) (94.5)
    Finance income from reinsurance contracts held 5 35.9 28.9
    Net insurance finance expenses   (92.5) (65.6)
           
    Net insurance and investment result   798.7 363.1
           
    Interest income from financial services 7 113.5 94.9
    Interest expense related to financial services 7 (37.2) (26.8)
    Net interest income from financial services   76.3 68.1
           
    Other revenue and profit commission 8 189.6 205.7
    Other operating expenses 9 (293.6) (250.8)
    Other operating expenses recoverable from co-insurers 9 129.3 107.8
    Movement in expected credit loss provision and write-offs 6 (34.6) (31.0)
    Other income and expenses   (9.3) 31.7
           
    Operating profit   865.7 462.9
    Finance costs 6 (27.1) (20.5)
    Finance costs recoverable from coinsurers 6 0.6 0.4
    Net finance costs   (26.5) (20.1)
    Profit before tax   839.2 442.8
    Taxation expense 10 (176.3) (105.6)
    Profit after tax   662.9 337.2
    Profit after tax attributable to:      
    Equity holders of the parent   663.3 338.0
    Non-controlling interests (NCI)   (0.4) (0.8)
        662.9 337.2
    Earnings per share      
    Basic 12 216.6p 111.2p
    Diluted 12 216.6p 110.8p
           
    Dividends declared and paid (total) 12 369.8 307.1
    Dividends declared and paid (per share) 12 123.0p 103.0p

    1 The Consolidated Income Statement for the year ended 31 December 2023 has been re-presented to show the breakdown of Investment return between effective interest rate and investment return relating to other transactions, this having been provided within note 6a to the 2023 financial statements. For further detail, see note 6a to the financial statements.

    Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income
    For the year ended 31 December 2024

      Year ended
      31 December
    2024
    £m
    31 December
    2023
    £m1
    Profit for the period 662.9 337.2
    Other comprehensive income    
    Items that are or may be reclassified to profit or loss    
    Movements in fair value reserve 11.3 98.1
    Deferred tax charge in relation to movement in fair value reserve 2.4 (5.7)
    Movements in insurance finance reserve – insurance contracts 7.9 (128.1)
    Deferred tax in relation to movement in insurance finance reserve – insurance contracts (5.1) 14.5
    Movements in insurance finance reserve – reinsurance contracts 3.3 49.2
    Deferred tax in relation to movement in insurance finance reserve – reinsurance contracts 1.3 (4.8)
    Exchange differences on translation of foreign operations (4.2) 3.7
    Movement in hedging reserve (4.1) (18.1)
    Deferred tax charge in relation to movement in hedging reserve 1.0 4.5
    Other comprehensive income for the period, net of income tax 13.8 13.3
    Total comprehensive income for the period 676.7 350.5
    Total comprehensive income for the period attributable to:    
    Equity holders of the parent 677.1 351.3
    Non-controlling interests (0.4) (0.8)
      676.7 350.5

    1Represented: see note 1 to the financial statements.

    Consolidated Statement of Financial Position

    As at 31 December 2024

        As at
      Note 31 December
    2024
    £m
    31 December
    2023
    £m
    ASSETS      
    Property and equipment 11 87.8 90.1
    Intangible assets 11 321.0 242.9
    Deferred tax asset 10 19.8 46.1
    Corporation tax asset   18.1 20.4
    Reinsurance contract assets 5 988.6 1,191.9
    Loans and advances to customers 7 1,106.9 879.4
    Other receivables 6 225.2 409.9
    Financial investments 6 4,863.2 3,862.4
    Cash and cash equivalents 6 313.6 353.1
    Total assets   7,944.2 7,096.2
    EQUITY      
    Share capital 12 0.3 0.3
    Share premium account   13.1 13.1
    Other reserves 12 (26.7) (40.5)
    Retained earnings   1,383.4 1,018.9
    Total equity attributable to equity holders of the parent   1,370.1 991.8
    Non-controlling interests   0.6 1.0
    Total equity   1,370.7 992.8
    LIABILITIES      
    Lease liabilities 6 79.6 81.2
    Subordinated and other financial liabilities 6 1,322.2 1,129.8
    Corporation tax liabilities   35.0 4.9
    Insurance contracts liabilities 5 4,961.4 4,581.7
    Trade and other payables 6, 11 175.3 305.8
    Total liabilities   6,573.5 6,103.4
    Total equity and total liabilities   7,944.2 7,096.2

    The accompanying notes form part of these financial statements. These financial statements were approved by the Board of Directors on 5 March 2025 and were signed on its behalf by:

    Geraint Jones

    Chief Financial Officer

    Admiral Group plc

    Company Number: 03849958

    Consolidated Cashflow Statement
    For the year ended 31 December 2024

        Year ended
      Note 31 December
    2024
    £m
    31 December
    2023
    £m1
    Profit after tax   662.9 337.2
    Adjustments for non-cash items:      
    – Depreciation of property, plant and equipment and right-of-use assets   18.8 18.2
    – Impairment/ disposal of property, plant and equipment and right-of-use assets   9.1 (4.0)
    – Amortisation and impairment of intangible assets 11 66.7 40.5
    – Movement in expected credit loss provision   10.3 15.7
    – Share scheme charges   67.8 63.3
    – Interest expense on funding for loans and advances to customers   32.3 26.2
    – Investment return 6 (177.4) (119.3)
    – Profit on disposal of Insurify share option 9 (12.5)
    – Finance costs, including unwinding of discounts on lease liabilities 6 27.7 20.5
    – Taxation expense 10 176.3 105.6
    Change in gross insurance contract liabilities 5 421.6 451.3
    Change in reinsurance assets 5 184.9 (141.8)
    Change in insurance and other receivables 6 182.4 (94.7)
    Change in gross loans and advances to customers 7 (231.4) (73.6)
    Change in trade and other payables, including tax and social security 11 (136.1) 52.4
    Cash flows from operating activities, before movements in investments   1,303.4 697.5
    Purchases of financial instruments   (8,083.3) (3,538.4)
    Proceeds on disposal/ maturity of financial instruments   7,182.4 3,176.1
    Interest and investment income received   90.6 76.8
    Cash flows from operating activities, net of movements in investments   493.1 412.0
    Taxation payments   (124.1) (133.0)
    Net cash flow from operating activities   369.0 279.0
    Cash flows from investing activities:      
    Purchases of property, equipment and software   (61.7) (75.9)
    Intangible assets acquired through business combinations   (82.5)
    Net cash used in investing activities   (144.2) (75.9)
    Cash flows from financing activities:      
    Proceeds on issue of loan backed securities   372.2 291.7
    Repayment of loan backed securities   (194.1) (246.8)
    Proceeds from other financial liabilities   177.7 428.4
    Repayment of other financial liabilities   (170.1) (292.2)
    Finance costs paid, including interest expense paid on funding for loans   (76.7) (52.8)
    Proceeds/(repayments) on hedging derivatives   15.6 17.7
    Repayment of lease liabilities   (12.7) (10.7)
    Equity dividends paid 12 (369.8) (307.1)
    Net cash used in financing activities   (257.9) (171.8)
    Net increase in cash and cash equivalents   (33.1) 31.3
    Cash and cash equivalents at 1 January   353.1 297.0
    Effects of changes in foreign exchange rates   (6.4) 24.8
    Cash and cash equivalents at 31 December   313.6 353.1

    1. Represented: see note 1 to the financial statements.

    Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity
    For the year ended 31 December 2024

      Attributable to the owners of the Company
     

    Note

    Share
    Capital
    £m
    Share premium account
    £m
    Fair value reserve £m Hedging reserve
    £m
    Foreign exchange reserve
    £m
    Insurance finance reserve
    £m
    Retained profit
    and loss
    £m
    Total
    £m
    Non-controlling interests
    £m
    Total equity
    £m
    At 1 January 2023   0.3 13.1 (205.9) 21.1 0.1 134.5 922.6 885.8 1.2 887.0
    Profit/(loss) for the period   338.0 338.0 (0.8) 337.2
    Other comprehensive income   92.4 (13.6) 3.7 (69.2) 13.3 13.3
    Total comprehensive income for the period 92.4 (13.6) 3.7 (69.2) 338.0 351.3 (0.8) 350.5
    Transactions with equity holders                      
    Dividends 12 (307.1) (307.1) (307.1)
    Share scheme credit   63.3 63.3 63.3
    Deferred tax on share scheme credit   2.1 2.1 2.1
    Transfer to loss on disposal of assets held for sale   (3.6) (3.6) 0.6 (3.0)
    Total transactions with equity holders (3.6) (241.7) (245.3) 0.6 (244.7)
    As at 31 December 2023   0.3 13.1 (113.5) 7.5 0.2 65.3 1,018.9 991.8 1.0 992.8

    Consolidated Statement of Changes in Equity (continued)

      Attributable to the owners of the Company
     

    Note

    Share
    Capital
    £m
    Share premium account
    £m
    Fair value reserve £m Hedging reserve
    £m
    Foreign exchange reserve
    £m
    Insurance finance reserve
    £m
    Retained profit
    and loss
    £m
    Total
    £m
    Non-controlling interests
    £m
    Total equity
    £m
    At 1 January 2024   0.3 13.1 (113.5) 7.5 0.2 65.3 1,018.9 991.8 1.0 992.8
    Profit/(loss) for the period   663.3 663.3 (0.4) 662.9
    Other comprehensive income   13.7 (3.1) (4.2) 7.4 13.8 13.8
    Total comprehensive income for the period 13.7 (3.1) (4.2) 7.4 663.3 677.1 (0.4) 676.7
    Transactions with equity holders                      
    Dividends 12 (369.8) (369.8) (369.8)
    Share scheme credit   67.8 67.8 67.8
    Deferred tax on share scheme credit   3.2 3.2 3.2
    Transfer to loss on disposal of assets held for sale  
    Total transactions with equity holders (298.8) (298.8) (298.8)
    As at 31 December 2024   0.3 13.1 (99.8) 4.4 (4.0) 72.7 1,383.4 1,370.1 0.6 1,370.7

    Notes to the consolidated financial statements

    General information

    Admiral Group plc is a public limited Company incorporated in England and Wales. Its registered office is at Tŷ Admiral, David Street, Cardiff, CF10 2EH and its shares are listed on the London Stock Exchange.

    The consolidated financial statements have been prepared and approved by the Directors in accordance with United Kingdom adopted international accounting standards in conformity with the requirements of the Companies Act 2006.

    The financial information included in this preliminary announcement has been prepared in accordance with the recognition and measurement criteria of International Financial Reporting Standards (‘IFRS’) as adopted by the UK. The financial information set out in this preliminary results announcement does not constitute the statutory accounts for the year ended 31 December 2024. The financial information is derived from the statutory accounts, which comply with IFRS, within the Group’s Annual Report & Accounts 2024. These accounts were signed on 5 March 2025 and are expected to be published in March 2025 and delivered to the Registrar of Companies following the Annual General Meeting to be held on 9 May 2025. The independent Auditor’s report on the Group accounts for the year ended 31 December 2024 was signed on 5 March 2025, is unqualified, does not draw attention to any matters by way of emphasis and does not include a statement under S498(2) or (3) of the Companies Act 2006. This audit opinion excludes disclosures surrounding capital adequacy calculated under the Solvency II regime as these are outside of the audit scope.

    1. Basis of preparation

    The consolidated financial statements have been prepared on a going concern basis. In considering this requirement, the Directors have taken into account the following:

    • The Group’s profit projections, including:
      • Changes in premium rates and projected policy volumes across the Group’s insurance businesses
      • Projected cost of settling claims across all of the Group’s insurance businesses, including the impact of continuing, albeit reducing, high levels of inflation
      • Projected trends in motor claims frequency
      • Projected trends in other revenue generated by the Group’s insurance business from fees and the sale of ancillary products
      • Projected contributions to profit from businesses other than the UK Motor insurance business
      • Expected trends in unemployment in the context of credit risks and the growth of the Group’s consumer lending business
      • The impact of the More Than acquisition, which completed in the first half of 2024, with renewals starting in the second half of 2024.
    • The Group’s solvency position, which continues to be closely monitored. The Group continues to maintain a strong solvency position above target levels
    • The adequacy of the Group’s liquidity position after considering all the factors noted above
    • The results of business plan scenarios and stress tests on the projected profitability, solvency and liquidity positions including the impact of severe downside scenarios that assume severe adverse economic, credit and trading stresses
    • The regulatory environment, focusing on regulatory guidance issued by the FCA and the PRA in the UK and regular communications between management and regulators
    • A review of the Company’s principal risks and uncertainties and the assessment of emerging risks, including climate-related risks.

    The accounting policies set out in the notes to the financial statements have, unless otherwise stated, been applied consistently to all periods presented in these Group financial statements. The financial statements are prepared on the historical cost basis, except for the revaluation of financial assets classified as fair value through profit or loss or as fair value through other comprehensive income, and insurance and reinsurance contract assets and liabilities which are measured at their fulfilment value in accordance with IFRS 17 Insurance Contracts.

    The Group and Company financial statements are presented in pounds sterling, rounded to the nearest £0.1 million.

    Adoption of new and revised standards

    The Group has adopted the following IFRSs and interpretations during the year, which have been issued and endorsed:

    • Amendments to IAS 7 Statement of Cashflows and IFRS 7 Financial Instruments: Disclosures: Supplier Finance Arrangements (effective 1 January 2024)
    • Amendments to IAS 1 Presentation of Financial Statements: Classification of liabilities as Current or Non-current (effective 1 January 2024)
    • Amendments to IFRS 16 Leases: Lease Liability in a Sale and Leaseback (effective 1 January 2024).

    The application of the amendments listed above has not had a material impact on the Group’s results, financial position and cashflows.

    Representation of Consolidated Cashflow Statement

    The 2023 Consolidated Cashflow Statement has been re-presented to reflect the gross cashflows relating to the subordinated loan note, loan backed securities and other borrowings which were previously all presented on a net basis within the financial statement line items ‘proceeds from other financial liabilities’ and ‘proceeds on issue of loan backed securities’. This has resulted in £292.2 million additional cash outflows within ‘repayment of other financial liabilities’ and the same inflow within ‘proceeds from other financial liabilities’ and £246.8 million additional cash outflows within ‘repayment of loan backed securities’ and the same inflow within ‘proceeds on issue of loan backed securities’. There is no overall impact on resulting cash, or the Consolidated Statement of Financial Position, Consolidated Income Statement or the Earnings per share calculations within.

    Representation of Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income

    The 2023 Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income has been re-presented to show the breakdown of the movements in the insurance finance reserve between that attributed to insurance contracts and that attributed to reinsurance contracts. The resulting deferred tax movement has also been re-presented. The movements in the insurance finance reserve are included within the Insurance finance reserve within the Statement of Changes in Equity. For the breakdown of the insurance finance reserve between insurance contracts and reinsurance contracts, see note 5e to the financial statements.

    2. Critical accounting judgements and estimates

    In applying the Group’s accounting policies as described in the notes to the financial statements, the Directors are required to make judgements (other than those involving estimations) that have a significant impact on the amounts recognised and to make estimates and assumptions about the carrying amounts of assets and liabilities that are not readily apparent from other sources.

    The estimates and associated assumptions are based on historical experience and various other factors that are believed to be reasonable under the circumstances, the results of which form the basis of making the judgements about carrying values of assets and liabilities that are not readily apparent from other sources.

    The estimates and underlying assumptions are reviewed on an ongoing basis. Revisions to accounting estimates are recognised in the year in which the estimate is reviewed. To the extent that a change in an accounting estimate gives rise to changes in assets and liabilities, the movement is recognised by adjusting the carrying amount of the related asset or liability in the period in which the change occurs.

    3. Financial risk

    3a. Insurance risk sensitivity analysis

    The following sensitivity analysis shows the impact on profit for reasonably possible movements in key assumptions with all other assumptions held constant. The correlation of assumptions will have a significant effect in determining the ultimate impacts, but to demonstrate the impact due to changes in each assumption, assumptions have been changed on an individual basis. It should be noted that movements in these assumptions are non-linear.

    The sensitivities are shown for UK motor only, being the line of business where such sensitivities could have a material impact at a Group level. The sensitivities are shown on a gross and net of quota share reinsurance basis to illustrate the impacts on shareholder profit and equity before and after risk mitigation from quota share reinsurance. The sensitivities (both gross and net) include the impacts of movements in co-insurance profit commission, given that underwriting year loss ratios including risk adjustment, are a direct input to the calculation of profit commission. Refer to note 8 to these financial statements for the accounting policy for co-insurance profit commission.

    Risk adjustment

    The sensitivities reflect the impact on profit before tax in 2024 and equity as at the end of 2024 for changes in the selection of the UK motor risk adjustment confidence level at 31 December 2024, with all other assumptions remaining unchanged.

            2024
    £m Impact on profit before tax gross of reinsurance Impact on profit before tax net of reinsurance Impact on equity gross of reinsurance Impact on equity net
    of reinsurance
    Risk adjustment decrease to 90th percentile 123.5 112.2 100.8 91.4
    Risk adjustment decrease to 85th percentile 199.3 180.8 162.5 147.2

    Undiscounted loss ratios, including risk adjustment

    The sensitivities reflect the impact on profit before tax in 2024 and equity as at the end of 2024, of a change in in the booked loss ratios for individual underwriting years (UWY) as at 31 December 2024, with all other assumptions remaining unchanged.   

    £m UWY 2021 impact on: UWY 2022 impact on: UWY 2023 impact on: UWY 2024 impact on:
      PBT Equity PBT Equity PBT Equity PBT Equity
                     
    Increase of 1%: gross of reinsurance (14.8) (11.2) (15.8) (13.1) (21.0) (17.8) (16.4) (13.8)
    Increase of 5%: gross of reinsurance (67.5) (51.2) (72.4) (60.2) (98.5) (83.8) (75.4) (63.9)
    Increase of 10%: gross of reinsurance (133.3) (101.1) (143.2) (119.2) (195.3) (166.3) (149.2) (126.6)
                     
    Decrease of 1%: gross of reinsurance 16.7 12.7 16.1 13.3 22.5 18.9 16.8 14.0
    Decrease of 5%: gross of reinsurance 76.7 58.1 85.7 70.2 118.7 98.9 88.8 73.9
    Decrease of 10%: gross of reinsurance 164.5 124.5 171.8 140.7 232.3 194.1 180.9 150.3
                     
    Increase of 1%: net of reinsurance (11.7) (8.8) (9.0) (7.2) (21.0) (17.8) (16.4) (13.8)
    Increase of 5%: net of reinsurance (51.9) (38.8) (37.6) (30.8) (79.8) (67.7) (69.8) (59.0)
    Increase of 10%: net of reinsurance (102.1) (76.3) (73.5) (60.3) (124.7) (105.4) (111.7) (94.2)
                     
    Decrease of 1%: net of reinsurance 13.6 10.2 9.1 7.3 22.5 18.9 16.8 14.0
    Decrease of 5%: net of reinsurance 63.1 47.2 54.0 43.4 118.7 98.9 88.8 73.9
    Decrease of 10%: net of reinsurance 148.3 111.6 118.0 95.2 232.3 194.1 180.9 150.3

    ‘Booked’ loss ratios are undiscounted underwriting year loss ratios, including risk adjustment.

    3b. Financial risk: Interest rate sensitivity analysis

    The impact on profit (before tax) and equity arising from the impact of 100 basis point and 200 basis point increases and decreases in interest rates on insurance contract liabilities and reinsurance contract assets as at 31 December 2024, is as follows:

      31 December 2024
    £m Impact on profit before tax gross of reinsurance Impact on profit before tax net of reinsurance Impact on equity gross of reinsurance Impact on equity net of reinsurance
    Increase of 100 basis points 60.8 58.3
    Decrease of 100 basis points (69.7) (67.1)
    Increase of 200 basis points 115.1 110.3
    Decrease of 200 basis points (152.2) (146.9)

    The impact on profit (before tax) and equity arising from the impact of 100 basis point and 200 basis point increases and decreases in interest rates on investments and cash as at 31 December 2024, is as follows:

        31 December 2024
    £m Impact on profit before tax Impact on equity
    Increase of 100 basis points (83.4)
    Decrease of 100 basis points 90.4
    Increase of 200 basis points (161.0)
    Decrease of 200 basis points 189.2

    Refer to Appendix 2 for the impact on profit before tax arising from the impact of 100 bps and 200 basis point increases and decreases in interest rates during 2024.

    4. Operating segments

    The Group has four reportable segments, as described below. These segments represent the principal split of business that is regularly reported to the Group’s Board of Directors, which is considered to be the Group’s chief operating decision maker in line with IFRS 8 Operating Segments.

    UK Insurance

    The segment consists of the underwriting of Motor, Household, Pet and Travel insurance and other products that supplement these insurance policies within the UK. It also includes the generation of revenue from additional products and fees from underwriting insurance in the UK. The Directors consider the results of these activities to be reportable as one segment as the activities carried out in generating the revenue are not independent of each other and are performed as one business. This mirrors the approach taken in management reporting.

    International Insurance

    The segment consists of the underwriting of car and home insurance and the generation of revenue from additional products and fees from underwriting car insurance outside of the UK. It specifically covers the Group operations Admiral Seguros in Spain, ConTe in Italy, L’olivier Assurance in France and Elephant Auto in the US. None of these operations are reportable on an individual basis, based on the threshold requirements in IFRS 8.

    Admiral Money

    The segment relates to the Admiral Money business launched in 2017, which provides consumer finance and car finance products in the UK, through the comparison channel, credit scoring applications and direct channels including car dealers and brokers.

    Other

    The ‘Other’ segment is designed to be comprised of all other operating segments that are not separately reported to the Group’s Board of Directors and do not meet the threshold requirements for individual reporting. It includes the results of Admiral Pioneer.

    Taxes are not allocated across the segments and, as with the corporate activities, are included in the reconciliation to the Consolidated Income Statement and Consolidated Statement of Financial Position.

    An analysis of the Group’s revenue and results for the year ended 31 December 2024, by reportable segment, is shown below. The accounting policies of the reportable segments are materially consistent with those presented in the notes to the financial statements for the Group.

        Year ended 31 December 2024
      UK
    Insurance
    £m
    International
    Insurance
    £m
    Admiral
    Money
    £m
    Other
    £m
    Eliminations3
    £m
    Total
    £m
    Turnover1 5,108.5 840.0 108.3 89.9 6,146.7
    Insurance revenue 3,873.4 829.5 73.3 4,776.2
    Insurance revenue net of XoL 3,751.1 794.2 65.8 4,611.1
    Insurance services expenses (745.7) (236.5) (33.7) (1,015.9)
    Insurance claims net of XoL (1,952.1) (564.5) (39.0) (2,555.6)
    Quota share reinsurance result (290.0) (4.1) (294.1)
    Net movement in onerous loss component 1.1 0.4 1.5
    Underwriting result 764.4 (10.5) (6.9) 747.0
    Net investment income2 70.5 6.1 0.3 0.7 (7.9) 69.7
    Net interest income from financial services 69.3 0.9 6.1 76.3
    Net other revenue and operating expenses 141.8 (0.9) (56.6) (12.1) 72.2
    Segment profit/(loss) before tax4 976.7 (5.3) 13.0 (17.4) (1.8) 965.2
    Other central revenue and expenses, including share scheme charges   (115.0)
    Investment and interest income       13.5
    Finance costs           (24.5)
    Consolidated profit before tax           839.2
    Taxation expense           (176.3)
    Consolidated profit after tax         662.9

    Revenue and results for the corresponding reportable segments for the year ended 31 December 2023 are shown below.

        Year ended 31 December 2023
      UK
    Insurance
    £m
    International
    Insurance
    £m
    Admiral
    Money
    £m
    Other
    £m
    Eliminations3
    £m
    Total
    £m
    Turnover1 3,776.0 894.9 92.1 48.5 4,811.5
    Insurance revenue 2,596.8 842.6 46.7 3,486.1
    Insurance revenue net of XoL 2,517.3 811.8 44.4 3,373.5
    Insurance services expenses (559.6) (249.4) (27.9) (836.9)
    Insurance claims net of XoL (1,560.2) (565.2) (33.1) (2,158.5)
    Quota share reinsurance result (18.4) (22.1) 0.1 (40.4)
    Net movement in onerous loss component 4.3 0.6 4.9
    Underwriting result 383.4 (24.3) (16.5) 342.6
    Net investment income2 55.2 4.3 0.3 (3.2) 56.6
    Net interest income from financial services 66.4 0.2 1.5 68.1
    Net other revenue and operating expenses 157.9 2.0 (56.2) (12.4) 91.3
    Segment profit/(loss) before tax4 596.5 (18.0) 10.2 (28.4) (1.7) 558.6
    Other central revenue and expenses, including share scheme charges     (101.8)
    Investment and interest income       4.6
    Finance costs           (18.6)
    Consolidated profit before tax           442.8
    Taxation expense           (105.6)
    Consolidated profit after tax         337.2

    1 Turnover is an Alternative Performance Measure presented before intra-group eliminations. Refer to the glossary and note 14 for further information.

    2 Net Investment income is reported net of impairment of financial assets, in line with management reporting.

    3 Eliminations are in respect of the intra-group interest charges related to the UK Insurance and Admiral Money segment.

    4 Segment results exclude gross share scheme charges, and any quota share reinsurance recoveries; these net share scheme charges are presented within ‘Other central revenue and expenses, including share scheme charges’ in line with internal management reporting.

    5. Insurance Service result

    5a. Accounting policies

    The full accounting policies will be provided in the Group’s 2024 Annual Report.

    Discount rates

    A bottom-up approach has been applied in the determination of discount rates. Under this approach, the discount rate is determined as the risk-free yield adjusted for differences in liquidity characteristics between the financial assets used to derive the risk-free yield and the relevant liability cashflows (known as an illiquidity premium).

    The following weighted average rates, based on the yield curves derived using the above methodology, were used to discount the liability for incurred claims at the end of the current and prior periods:

      31 December 2024 31 December 2023
      1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years 1 year 3 years 5 years 10 years
    UK Insurance 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 4.6% 5.4% 4.3% 4.0% 3.9%
    International (European motor) 2.7% 2.6% 2.6% 2.8% 4.0% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0%

    5b. Insurance revenue

    Insurance revenue for the corresponding reportable segments for the period ended 31 December 2024 are shown below.

      31 December 2024
      UK Motor
    £m
    UK Non-motor
    £m
    Int. Insurance
    £m
    Other
    £m
    Total Group
    £m
    Insurance revenue related movement in liability for remaining coverage 3,369.5 503.9 829.5 73.3 4,776.2

    Insurance revenue for the corresponding reportable segments for the period ended 31 December 2023 are shown below.

      31 December 2023
      UK Motor
    £m
    UK Non-motor
    £m
    Int. Insurance
    £m
    Other
    £m
    Total Group
    £m
    Insurance revenue related movement in liability for remaining coverage 2,250.2 346.6 842.6 46.7 3,486.1

    The Group’s share of its insurance business was underwritten by Admiral Insurance (Gibraltar) Limited, Admiral Insurance Company Limited, Admiral Europe Compañia Seguros (‘AECS’) and Elephant Insurance Company. The majority of contracts are short term in duration, lasting for between 6 and 12 months.

    5c. Insurance service expenses

    Insurance service expenses for the corresponding reportable segments for the period ended 31 December 2024 are shown below.

      31 December 2024
      UK Motor
    £m
    UK Non-motor
    £m
    Int. Insurance
    £m
    Other
    £m
    Total Group
    £m
    Incurred claims          
    Claims incurred in the period 2,107.2 298.2 583.7 48.9 3,038.0
    Changes to liabilities for incurred claims (496.1) (51.4) (11.1) (1.3) (559.9)
    Total incurred claims 1,611.1 246.8 572.6 47.6 2,478.1
    Movement in onerous contracts (5.1) 0.1 (0.1) (5.1)
    Directly attributable expenses          
    Administration expenses 461.5 113.7 175.2 18.7 769.1
    Acquisition expenses 125.3 45.2 61.3 15.0 246.8
    Insurance expenses 586.8 158.9 236.5 33.7 1,015.9
    Share scheme expenses 40.7 5.4 11.1 1.4 58.6
    Total insurance expenses including share scheme expenses 627.5 164.3 247.6 35.1 1,074.5
    Total Insurance service expenses 2,233.5 411.2 820.1 82.7 3,547.5

    Insurance service expenses for the corresponding reportable segments for the period ended 31 December 2023 are shown below.

      31 December 2023
      UK Motor
    £m
    UK Non-motor
    £m
    Int. Insurance
    £m
    Other
    £m
    Total Group
    £m
    Incurred claims          
    Claims incurred in the period 1,755.5 255.0 618.2 36.4 2,665.1
    Changes to liabilities for incurred claims (406.9) (9.1) (21.3) (3.3) (440.6)
    Total incurred claims 1,348.6 245.9 596.9 33.1 2,224.5
    Movement in onerous contracts (18.6) (2.4) (2.4) (23.4)
    Directly attributable expenses          
    Administration expenses 377.8 73.5 184.0 19.0 654.3
    Acquisition expenses 73.4 34.8 65.4 8.9 182.5
    Insurance expenses 451.2 108.3 249.4 27.9 836.8
    Share scheme expenses 43.2 2.4 8.9 0.8 55.3
    Total insurance expenses including share scheme expenses 494.4 110.7 258.3 28.7 892.1
    Total Insurance service expenses 1,824.4 354.2 852.8 61.8 3,093.2

    5d. Net expenses from reinsurance contracts held

    Net expenses from reinsurance contracts held for the corresponding reportable segments for the period ended 31 December 2024 are shown below.

      31 December 2024
      UK Motor
    £m
    UK Non-motor
    £m
    Int. Insurance
    £m
    Other
    £m
    Total Group
    £m
    Allocation of reinsurance premiums 145.8 45.8 153.9 7.6 353.1
    Amounts recoverable from reinsurers for incurred insurance service expenses          
    Incurred claims (29.2) 3.1 (275.9) (8.5) (310.5)
    Changes to liabilities for incurred claims 291.6 34.3 146.3 472.2
    Net expense from reinsurance contracts excluding movement in onerous loss component 408.2 83.2 24.3 (0.9) 514.8
    Other reinsurance recoveries including movement in onerous loss component 4.0 (0.1) (0.3) 3.6
    Net expenses/(income) from reinsurance contracts held 412.2 83.1 24.0 (0.9) 518.4

    Net expenses from reinsurance contracts held for the corresponding reportable segments for the period ended 31 December 2023 are shown below.

      31 December 2023
      UK Motor
    £m
    UK Non-motor
    £m
    Int. Insurance
    £m
    Other
    £m
    Total Group
    £m
    Allocation of reinsurance premiums 93.6 49.5 190.0 2.2 335.3
    Amounts recoverable from reinsurers for incurred insurance service expenses          
    Incurred claims (173.8) (52.0) (270.3) (496.1)
    Changes to liabilities for incurred claims 135.1 (1.4) 95.9 (0.1) 229.5
    Net expense from reinsurance contracts excluding movement in onerous loss component 54.9 (3.9) 15.6 2.1 68.7
    Other reinsurance recoveries including movement in loss recovery component 14.5 2.2 1.7 18.4
    Net expenses/(income) from reinsurance contracts held 69.4 (1.7) 17.3 2.1 87.1

    5e. Finance expenses/(income) from insurance contracts held and reinsurance contracts issued

    £m 2024 2023
    Amounts recognised through the income statement    
    Insurance finance expenses from insurance contracts issued 128.4 94.5
    Insurance finance income from reinsurance contracts held (35.9) (28.9)
    Net finance expense from insurance / reinsurance contracts issued 92.5 65.6
         
    £m 2024 2023
    Insurance finance reserve    
    Insurance finance reserve – insurance contracts 119.0 111.1
    Deferred tax in relation to insurance finance reserve – insurance contracts (18.6) (13.5)
    Insurance finance reserve – reinsurance contracts (32.4) (35.7)
    Deferred tax in relation to insurance finance reserve – reinsurance contracts 4.7 3.4
    Total insurance finance reserve 72.7 65.3

    5f. Insurance Liabilities and Reinsurance assets

    (i). Analysis of recognised amounts

      Year ended 31 December 2024 Year ended 31 December 2023
    £m Liability for remaining coverage Liability for incurred claims Total Liability for remaining coverage Liability for incurred claims Total
    Insurance contracts issued          
    UK Motor 883.3 2,691.1 3,574.4 769.0 2,546.7 3,315.7
    UK Non-motor 195.3 214.7 410.0 136.2 217.5 353.7
    International Motor 201.4 690.2 891.6 221.0 641.5 862.5
    Other 8.6 76.8 85.4 3.5 46.3 49.8
    Total insurance contracts issued 1,288.6 3,672.8 4,961.4 1,129.7 3,452.0 4,581.7
                 
      Asset/(liability) for remaining coverage Asset for incurred claims Total Asset/(liability) for remaining coverage Asset for incurred claims Total
    Reinsurance contracts held          
    UK Motor 34.0 236.5 270.5 23.1 496.8 519.9
    UK Non-Motor 11.2 173.5 184.7 21.4 170.2 191.6
    International Motor 43.1 481.5 524.6 (21.0) 502.8 481.8
    Other (0.1) 8.9 8.8 (1.4) (1.4)
    Total reinsurance contracts held 88.2 900.4 988.6 22.1 1,169.8 1,191.9
                 
      Liability/(asset) for remaining coverage Liability/(asset) for incurred claims Total Liability/(asset) for remaining coverage Liability/(asset) for incurred claims Total
    Net            
    UK Motor 849.3 2,454.6 3,303.9 745.9 2,049.9 2,795.8
    UK Non-Motor 184.1 41.2 225.3 114.8 47.3 162.1
    International Motor 158.3 208.7 367.0 242.0 138.7 380.7
    Other 8.7 67.9 76.6 4.9 46.3 51.2
    Total insurance contracts issued 1,200.4 2,772.4 3,972.8 1,107.6 2,282.2 3,389.8

    (ii) Roll-forward of net asset or liability for insurance contracts issued

    UK Motor

    The following tables reconcile the opening and closing balances of the LRC and LIC for UK Motor.

    2024 Liability for remaining coverage Liability for incurred claims Total
    £m Excluding loss component Loss component Total Present value of future cashflows Risk adj. for non-financial risk Total Total
    Opening assets
    Opening liabilities (766.0) (3.0) (769.0) (2,202.8) (343.9) (2,546.7) (3,315.7)
    Net opening balance (766.0) (3.0) (769.0) (2,202.8) (343.9) (2,546.7) (3,315.7)
    Insurance revenue 3,369.5 3,369.5 3,369.5
    Insurance service expenses              
    Incurred claims and insurance service expenses (2,548.7) (186.0) (2,734.7) (2,734.7)
    Changes to liabilities for
    incurred claims
    343.4 152.7 496.1 496.1
    Losses and reversals of losses on onerous contracts 5.1 5.1 5.1
    Insurance service result 3,369.5 5.1 3,374.6 (2,205.3) (33.3) (2,238.6) 1,136.0
    Insurance finance income/(expense) recognised in
    profit or loss
    (2.4) (2.4) (86.5) (15.3) (101.8) (104.2)
    Insurance finance income/(expense) recognised in OCI 0.3 0.3 16.2 2.2 18.4 18.7
    Total changes in comprehensive income 3,369.5 3.0 3,372.5 (2,275.6) (46.4) (2,322.0) 1,050.5
    Other changes 35.9 35.9 79.3 79.3 115.2
    Cashflows              
    Premiums received (3,522.7) (3,522.7) (3,522.7)
    Claims and other insurance service expenses paid 2,098.3 2,098.3 2,098.3
    Other movements
    Total cashflows (3,522.7) (3,522.7) 2,098.3 2,098.3 (1,424.4)
    Net closing balance (883.3) (883.3) (2,300.8) (390.3) (2,691.1) (3,574.4)
    Closing assets
    Closing liabilities (883.3) (883.3) (2,300.8) (390.3) (2,691.1) (3,574.4)
    2023 Liability for remaining coverage Liability for incurred claims Total
    £m Excluding loss component Loss component Total Present value of future cashflows Risk adj. for non-financial risk Total Total
    Opening assets
    Opening liabilities (534.1) (8.1) (542.2) (1,984.5) (426.6) (2,411.1) (2,953.3)
    Net opening balance (534.1) (8.1) (542.2) (1,984.5) (426.6) (2,411.1) (2,953.3)
    Insurance revenue 2,250.2 2,250.2 2,250.2
    Insurance service expenses              
    Incurred claims and insurance service expenses (2,105.1) (144.8) (2,249.9) (2,249.9)
    Changes to liabilities for
    incurred claims
    140.1 266.8 406.9 406.9
    Losses and reversals of losses on onerous contracts 18.6 18.6 18.6
    Insurance service result 2,250.2 18.6 2,268.8 (1,965.0) 122.0 (1,843.0) 425.8
    Insurance finance income/(expense) recognised in
    profit or loss
    (4.1) (4.1) (59.0) (12.3) (71.3) (75.4)
    Insurance finance income/(expense) recognised in OCI (9.4) (9.4) (60.5) (27.0) (87.5) (96.9)
    Total changes in comprehensive income 2,250.2 5.1 2,255.3 (2,084.5) 82.7 (2,001.8) 253.5
    Other changes1   64.0 64.0 64.0
    Cashflows              
    Premiums received (2,482.1) (2,482.1) (2,482.1)
    Claims and other insurance service expenses paid1 1,802.2 1,802.2 1,802.2
    Other movements
    Total cashflows (2,482.1) (2,482.1) 1,802.2 1,802.2 (679.9)
    Net closing balance (766.0) (3.0) (769.0) (2,202.8) (343.9) (2,546.7) (3,315.7)
    Closing assets
    Closing liabilities (766.0) (3.0) (769.0) (2,202.8) (343.9) (2,546.7) (3,315.7)

    1 Claims paid and other changes have been re-presented to separately present the transfer of non-cash insurance service expenses, (primarily depreciation, amortisation and IFRS 2 equity-settled share based payments), out of the LIC. There is no impact on the closing balance.

    (iii) Roll-forward of net asset or liability for reinsurance contracts issued

    UK Motor

    The following tables reconcile the opening and closing balances of the ARC and AIC for UK Motor.

    2024 Asset for remaining coverage Asset for incurred claims Total
    £m Excluding loss component Loss-recovery component Total Present value of future cashflows Risk adj. for non-financial risk Total Total
    Opening assets 20.8 2.3 23.1 313.2 183.6 496.8 519.9
    Opening liabilities
    Net opening balance 20.8 2.3 23.1 313.2 183.6 496.8 519.9
    Allocation of reinsurance premiums (145.8) (145.8) (145.8)
    Amounts recoverable from reinsurers for incurred claims              
    Incurred claims 22.2 7.0 29.2 29.2
    Changes to liabilities for
    incurred claims
    (158.6) (133.0) (291.6) (291.6)
    Changes in the loss
    recovery component
    (4.0) (4.0) (4.0)
    Net income/ (expense) from reinsurance contracts held (145.8) (4.0) (149.8) (136.4) (126.0) (262.4) (412.2)
    Reinsurance finance income/(expense) recognised in
    profit or loss
    1.8 1.8 11.1 7.9 19.0 20.8
    Reinsurance finance income/(expense) recognised in OCI (0.1) (0.1) (2.8) (1.5) (4.3) (4.4)
    Total changes in comprehensive income (145.8) (2.3) (148.1) (128.1) (119.6) (247.7) (395.8)
    Cashflows              
    Premiums paid 159.0 159.0 159.0
    Claims recoveries (0.9) (0.9) (0.9)
    Recoveries as a result of commutations (11.7) (11.7) (11.7)
    Total cashflows 159.0 159.0 (12.6) (12.6) 146.4
    Net closing balance 34.0 34.0 172.5 64.0 236.5 270.5
    Closing assets 34.0 34.0 172.5 64.0 236.5 270.5
    Closing liabilities
    2023 Asset for remaining coverage Asset for incurred claims Total
    £m Excluding loss component Loss-recovery component Total Present value of future cashflows Risk adj. for non-financial risk Total Total
    Opening assets 20.2 6.3 26.5 255.4 175.6 431.0 457.5
    Opening liabilities
    Net opening balance 20.2 6.3 26.5 255.4 175.6 431.0 457.5
    Allocation of reinsurance premiums (93.6) (93.6) (93.6)
    Amounts recoverable from reinsurers for incurred claims
    Incurred claims 96.7 77.1 173.8 173.8
    Changes to liabilities for
    incurred claims
    (43.1) (92.0) (135.1) (135.1)
    Changes in the loss
    recovery component
    (14.5) (14.5) (14.5)
    Net income/ (expense) from reinsurance contracts held (93.6) (14.5) (108.1) 53.6 (14.9) 38.7 (69.4)
    Reinsurance finance income/(expense) recognised in
    profit or loss
    3.2 3.2 9.4 7.5 16.9 20.1
    Reinsurance finance income/(expense) recognised in OCI 7.3 7.3 12.5 15.4 27.9 35.2
    Total changes in comprehensive income (93.6) (4.0) (97.6) 75.5 8.0 83.5 (14.1)
    Cashflows
    Premiums paid 94.2 94.2 94.2
    Claims recoveries (2.2) (2.2) (2.2)
    Recoveries as a result of commutations (15.5) (15.5) (15.5)
    Total cashflows 94.2 94.2 (17.7) (17.7) 76.5
    Net closing balance 20.8 2.3 23.1 313.2 183.6 496.8 519.9
    Closing assets 20.8 2.3 23.1 313.2 183.6 496.8 519.9
    Closing liabilities

    (iv) Claims development

    The tables below illustrate how estimates of cumulative claims for UK Motor have developed over time on a gross and net of reinsurance basis, for each underwriting year, and reconciles the cumulative claims to the amount included in the Statement of Financial Position.

    Gross claims development

    Financial year ended 31 December 2024
    Underwriting year 2014 & prior 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total
      £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m
    UK Motor (core)                        
    At end of year one   394 436 552 686 701 552 688 845 973 1,241  
    At end of year two   701 829 1,144 1,175 1,067 985 1,326 1,584 1,812    
    At end of year three   707 788 994 1,109 1,010 954 1,294 1,544      
    At end of year four   680 727 947 1,064 996 921 1,270        
    At end of year five   636 713 912 1,008 981 910          
    At end of year six   619 690 890 1,000 938            
    At end of year seven   606 656 865 959              
    At end of year eight   594 652 849                
    At end of year nine   585 657                  
    Ten years later   583                    
    Gross best estimates of undiscounted claims 3,803 583 657 849 959 938 910 1,270 1,544 1,812 1,241 14,566
    Cumulative gross claims paid (3,666) (568) (618) (782) (906) (822) (733) (924) (1,104) (1,105) (561) (11,789)
    Gross undiscounted best estimate liabilities 137 15 39 67 53 116 177 346 440 707 680 2,777
    Risk adjustment (undiscounted)                       480
    Effect of discounting                       (673)
    Gross claims liabilities                       2,584
    Ancillary claims and expense liabilities                       107
    UK Motor Gross liabilities for incurred claims                       2,691

    Claims development net of XoL reinsurance

    Financial year ended 31 December 2024
    Underwriting year 2014 & prior 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total
      £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m
    UK Motor (core)                        
    At end of year one   378 427 510 646 675 520 661 825 951 1,220  
    At end of year two   682 783 1,053 1,123 1,033 949 1,292 1,550 1,776    
    At end of year three   667 743 917 1,053 986 927 1,257 1,517      
    At end of year four   637 692 883 1,024 969 892 1,240        
    At end of year five   607 677 860 974 950 886          
    At end of year six   599 663 840 978 925            
    At end of year seven   586 640 820 946              
    At end of year eight   579 635 825                
    At end of year nine   577 644                  
    Ten years later   580                    
    Net of XoL best estimates of undiscounted claims 3,773 580 644 825 946 925 886 1,240 1,517 1,776 1,220 14,332
    Cumulative
    claims paid
    (3,666) (568) (618) (782) (906) (822) (733) (924) (1,104) (1,105) (561) (11,789)
    Net of XoL undiscounted best estimate liabilities 107 12 26 43 40 103 153 316 413 671 659 2,543
    Risk adjustment (undiscounted)                       428
    Effect of discounting                       (543)
    Net of XoL
    claims liabilities
                          2,428
    Ancillary claims and expense liabilities                       107
    UK Motor Net of XoL liabilities for incurred claims                       2,535

    Claims development net of reinsurance

    Financial year ended 31 December 2024
    Underwriting year 2014 & prior 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Total
      £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m
    UK Motor (core)                        
    At end of year one   378 427 493 625 626 520 657 762 939 1,220  
    At end of year two   682 783 1,016 1,086 1,033 949 1,259 1,442 1,776    
    At end of year three   667 743 886 1,018 986 927 1,239 1,470      
    At end of year four   637 692 853 990 969 892 1,236        
    At end of year five   607 677 830 957 950 886          
    At end of year six   599 663 811 944 925            
    At end of year seven   586 640 793 913              
    At end of year eight   579 635 798                
    At end of year nine   577 644                  
    Ten years later   580                    
    Net best estimates of undiscounted claims 3,773 580 644 798 913 925 886 1,236 1,470 1,776 1,220 14,221
    Cumulative net
    claims paid
    (3,666) (568) (618) (755) (874) (822) (733) (924) (1,104) (1,105) (561) (11,730)
    Net undiscounted best
    estimate liabilities
    107 12 26 43 39 103 153 312 366 671 659 2,491
    Risk adjustment (undiscounted)                       419
    Effect of discounting                       (528)
    Net claims liabilities                       2,382
    Ancillary claims and
    expense liabilities
                          72
    UK Motor Net liabilities for
    incurred claims
                          2,454

    (v) UK Motor Loss ratios and Changes to liabilities for incurred claims

    The table below shows the development of UK Motor Insurance loss ratios for the past three financial periods, presented on an underwriting year basis, both using undiscounted amounts (i.e. cashflows) and discounted amounts.

      31 December
    UK Motor Insurance loss ratio development – undiscounted*, net of excess of loss reinsurance 2021 2022 2023 2024
    Underwriting year        
    2019 73% 71% 67% 64%
    2020 68% 65% 58% 57%
    2021 95% 91% 86% 82%
    2022 —% 104% 96% 91%
    2023 —% —% 94% 80%
    2024 —% —% —% 77%

    * Booked undiscounted loss ratios presented from the transition date of IFRS 17 (1 January 2022) onwards.

      31 December
    UK Motor Insurance loss ratio development – discounted*, net of excess of loss reinsurance 2021 2022 2023 2024
    Underwriting year        
    2019 71% 69% 65% 63%
    2020 67% 63% 57% 55%
    2021 92% 86% 81% 77%
    2022 —% 97% 88% 83%
    2023 —% —% 86% 72%
    2024 —% —% —% 71%

    * Loss ratios using discounted locked-in curves, excluding finance expenses are presented from the transition date of IFRS 17 (1 January 2022) onwards.

    The following table analyses the impact of movements in changes to liabilities from incurred claims by underwriting year on a gross and net of excess of loss reinsurance basis for UK Motor.

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Gross    
    Underwriting year    
    2019 & prior 173.7 152.9
    2020 41.8 98.2
    2021 87.0 76.4
    2022 107.1 79.4
    2023 83.8 0.0
    2024 0.0 0.0
    Total UK Motor gross changes to liabilities for incurred claims 493.4 406.9
    Net    
    Underwriting year    
    2019 & prior 99.6 145.6
    2020 30.5 97.7
    2021 70.6 80.1
    2022 94.5 69.4
    2023 76.7 0.0
    2024 0.0 0.0
    Total UK Motor net of excess of loss changes to liabilities for incurred claims 371.9 392.8

    6. Investment income and finance costs

    6a. Investment return

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
      At EIR Other Total At EIR Other Total
    Investment return            
    On assets classified as FVTPL 67.1 67.1 43.3 43.3
    On assets classified as FVOCI1 3 100.4 5.2 105.6 77.0 (3.6) 73.4
    On assets classified as amortised cost1 5.9 5.9 4.1 4.1
                 
    Net unrealised losses            
    Unrealised (loss) / gain on forward contracts (0.2) (0.2) (0.2) (0.2)
    Share of associate profit/ loss (1.0) (1.0) (1.3) (1.3)
    Interest income on cash and cash equivalents1 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4
    Investment fees (2.0) (2.0) (1.8) (1.8)
    Total investment and interest income2 106.3 74.6 180.9 81.1 41.8 122.9

    1 Interest received during the year was £90.6 million (2023: £76.8 million).

    2 Total investment return excludes £7.9 million of intra-group interest (2023: £3.2 million).

    3 Realised losses on sales of debt securities classified as FVOCI are £4.5 million (2023: £0.9 million).

    6b. Finance costs

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Interest expense on subordinated loan notes and other credit facilities1 2 24.5 18.5
    Interest expense on lease liabilities 2.6 2.0
    Interest recoverable from co-insurers (0.6) (0.4)
    Total finance costs 26.5 20.1

    1 Interest paid during the year was £27.0 million (2023: £20.5 million).

    2 See note 7 for details of credit facilities.

    Finance costs represent interest payable on the £250.0 million (2023: £305.1 million) subordinated notes and other financial liabilities.

    Interest expense on lease liabilities represents the unwinding of the discount on lease liabilities under IFRS 16.

    6c. Expected credit losses

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Expected credit (gains)/losses on financial investments 6.3 (2.5)
    Expected credit losses on loans and advances to customers1 28.3 33.5
    Total expense for expected credit losses 34.6 31.0

    1 Includes £26.1 million (2023: £15.0 million) of write-offs, with total movement in the expected credit loss provision being £28.3 million (2023: £33.5 million).

    6d. Financial assets and liabilities

    The Group’s financial assets and liabilities can be analysed as follows:

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Financial investments measured at FVTPL    
    Money market funds 902.6 587.5
    Other funds1 473.9 301.3
    Derivative financial instruments 5.8 17.6
    Equity investments (designated FVTPL) 46.9 12.4
      1,429.2 918.8
    Financial investments classified as FVOCI    
    Corporate debt securities 2,410.9 2,040.6
    Government debt securities2 772.2 519.6
    Private debt securities 152.3 242.7
      3,335.4 2,802.9
    Equity investments (designated FVOCI) 23.0
      3,335.4 2,825.9
    Financial assets measured at amortised cost    
    Deposits with credit institutions 91.7 116.7
    Other    
    Investment in Associate 1.0
    Investment Property 6.9
    Total financial investments 4,863.2 3,862.4
         
    Other financial assets (measured at amortised cost)    
    Insurance related receivables 51.1 272.7
    Trade and other receivables 110.4 75.0
    Insurance related and other receivables 161.5 347.7
    Loans and advances to customers (note 7) 1,106.9 879.4
    Cash and cash equivalents 313.6 353.1
    Total financial assets 6,445.2 5,442.6
    Financial liabilities    
    Subordinated notes 258.9 315.2
    Loan backed securities 937.7 759.6
    Other borrowings 117.4 55.0
    Derivative financial instruments 8.2
    Subordinated and other financial liabilities 1,322.2 1,129.8
    Trade and other payables3 175.3 305.8
    Lease liabilities 79.6 81.2
    Total financial liabilities 1,577.1 1,516.8

    1Other funds include funds which primarily invest in fixed income securities are recognised as fair value through profit and loss
    2Government debt securities include £0.6 million of short term UK government bonds held for collateral against foreign exchange hedging derivatives

    3Trade and other payables include deferred income, accruals and other tax and social security.

    The table below shows how the financial assets and liabilities held at fair value have been measured using the fair value hierarchy:

      31 December 2024 31 December 2023
      FVTPL
    £m
    FVOCI
    £m
    FVTPL
    £m
    FVOCI
    £m
    Level one (quoted prices in active markets) 1,221.2 3,183.1 888.8 2,560.1
    Level two (use of observable inputs) (2.4) 17.6
    Level three (use of significant unobservable inputs) 202.2 152.3 12.4 265.8
    Total 1,421.0 3,335.4 918.8 2,825.9

    Level three investments consist of debt investments and equity investments.

    Debt investments are comprised primarily of investments in funds which invest in debt securities, these are valued at the proportion of the Group’s holding of the Net Asset Value (NAV) reported by the investment vehicle. These include funds that invest in corporate direct lending, residential and commercial mortgages, infrastructure debt and other private debt. In addition, there is a small allocation of privately placed bonds which do not trade on active markets, these are valued using discounted cash-flow models designed to appropriately reflect the credit and illiquidity of these instruments; these valuations are performed by the external fund managers. The key unobservable input across private debt securities is the discount rate which is based on the credit performance of the assets. A deterioration of the credit performance or expected future performance will result in higher discount rates and lower values.

    As these debt investments are held within investment funds where appropriate the Group elects to treat these investments as equity through OCI. Debt investments in which the funds are closed ended are classified as FVTPL within Other funds (2024: £154.8 million).

    Equity securities are primarily comprised of investments in Private Equity and Infrastructure Equity funds, which are valued at the proportion of the Group’s holding of the NAV reported by the investment vehicle. These are based on several unobservable inputs including market multiples and cashflow forecasts. These are held at FVTPL, with realised and unrealised gains/losses flowing through the P&L.

    There were no significant inter-relationships between unobservable inputs that materially affect fair values.

    The table below presents the movement in the period relating to financial instruments valued using a level three valuation:

    31 December 2024
    £m
    Level Three Investments Equity Investments Debt Investments Total
    Balance as at 1 January 2024 35.5 242.7 278.2
    Gains/(losses) recognised in the Income Statement (4.5) 9.6 5.1
    Gains/(losses) recognised in Other Comprehensive Income (2.8) (2.8)
    Purchases 16.1 94.9 111.0
    Disposals (0.2) (36.8) (37.0)
    Balance as at 31 December 2024 46.9 307.6 354.5
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Level Three Investments Equity Investments Debt Investments Total
    Balance as at 1 January 2023 31.6 166.6 198.2
    Gains/(losses) recognised in the Income Statement (0.1) 10.0 9.9
    Gains/(losses) recognised in Other Comprehensive Income (1.0) 0.8 (0.2)
    Purchases 6.1 89.6 95.7
    Disposals (1.1) (24.3) (25.4)
    Balance as at 31 December 2023 35.5 242.7 278.2

    7. Loans and Advances to Customers

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Loans and advances to customers – gross carrying amount 1,174.0 956.8
    Loans and advances to customers – provision (84.3) (81.7)
    Total loans and advances to customers – Admiral Money 1,089.7 875.1
    Total loans and advances to customers – Other 17.2 4.3
    Total loans and advances to customers 1,106.9 879.4

    Loans and advances to customers are comprised of the following:

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Unsecured personal loans 1,155.6 937.7
    Finance leases 18.4 19.1
    Other 18.6 4.4
    Total loans and advances to customers, gross 1,192.6 961.2

    Forward-looking information

    Under IFRS 9 the provision must reflect an unbiased and probability-weighted amount that is determined by evaluating a range of possible outcomes. The means by which the Group has determined this is to run scenario analysis.

    Management judgment has been used to define the weighting and severity of the different scenarios based on available data.

    As at December 2024 there are three key economic drivers of credit losses factored into the scenarios, as follows:

    • UK Unsecured Debt to Income (‘DTI’)
    • UK Employment Hazard Rates
    • Annual UK GDP % Change

    The variables are combined using a statistical model which will estimate the relative change in the PD of an account for each scenario over the life of the loan. The Group has moved from a single variable model as at December 2023 (Unemployment) to model containing three drivers in recognition of the fact that there are multiple macroeconomic drivers which can influence the direction of default rates.

    The scenario weighting assumptions used are detailed below, along with the annual peak for each economic driver assumed in each scenario at 31 December 2024.

      For the Forecast Year Ended
    At 31 December 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
      % % % % %
    Base – 50%          
    Gross domestic product 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7
    Unemployment rate 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1
    UK Household Unsecured Debt to Income 13.2 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.5
    Upside – 10%          
    Gross domestic product 2.7 3.0 1.8 1.6 1.8
    Unemployment rate 4.2 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
    UK Household Unsecured Debt to Income 12.6 12.3 11.9 12.2 12.3
    Downside – 30%          
    Gross domestic product 0.9 0.1 3.0 3.0 2.7
    Unemployment rate 5.6 6.0 5.6 4.9 4.6
    UK Household Unsecured Debt to Income 13.4 14.5 15.0 15.1 15.1
    Severe – 10%          
    Gross domestic product 0.8         (1.1) 2.6 3.4 3.1
    Unemployment rate 6.6 8.0 7.9 6.8 6.1
    UK Household Unsecured Debt to Income 13.6 15.0 15.7 15.9 16.1
    Probability-weighted          
    Gross domestic product 1.4 1.0 2.1 2.3 2.1
    Unemployment rate 5.0 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.4
    UK Household Unsecured Debt to Income 13.2 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.6
      For the Forecast Year Ended
    At 31 December 2023 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
      % % % % %
    Base – 50%          
    Gross domestic product 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.8 1.9
    Unemployment rate 4.7 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1
    UK Household Unsecured Debt to Income 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.5
    Upside – 10%          
    Gross domestic product 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.6 1.4
    Unemployment rate 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9
    UK Household Unsecured Debt to Income 12.5 12.4 12.5 12.5 12.4
    Downside – 30%          
    Gross domestic product 0.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.3
    Unemployment rate 6.0 5.7 4.9 4.6 4.5
    UK Household Unsecured Debt to Income 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.2
    Severe – 10%          
    Gross domestic product         (1.8) 3.0 3.9 3.9 3.0
    Unemployment rate 8.0 8.0 6.7 5.9 5.4
    UK Household Unsecured Debt to Income 15.1 15.7 15.9 16.1 16.2
    Probability-weighted          
    Gross domestic product 0.8 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.1
    Unemployment rate 5.3 4.9 4.6 4.4 4.3
    UK Household Unsecured Debt to Income 14.0 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.7

    The economic scenarios and forecasts have been updated in conjunction with a third party economics provider. The probability weightings reflect the view that there is a probability of 40% attached to recessionary outcomes. 

    Sensitivities to key areas of estimation uncertainty

    The key areas of estimation uncertainty identified, as per note 2 to the financial statements, are in the probability of default (‘PD’) and the forward-looking scenarios.

      31 December 2024
    Weighting
    31 December 2024
    Sensitivity
    31 December 2023
    Weighting
    31 December 2023
    Sensitivity
    Base 50% (1.7) 50% (1.1)
    Upturn 30% (3.3) 10% (5.2)
    Downturn 10% 2.9 30% 2.5
    Severe 10% 6.3 10% 8.2

    The sensitivities in the above tables show the variance to expected credit loss (‘ECL’) that would be expected if the given scenario unfolded rather than the weighted position the provision is based on. At 31 December 2024 the implied weighted peak unemployment rate is 5.0%: the table shows that in a downturn scenario with a 5.6% peak unemployment rate the provision would increase by £2.9 million, whilst the upturn would reduce the provision by £3.3 million, base case reduce by £1.7 million and severe increase the provision by £6.3 million.

    Stage 1 assets represent 86.6% of the total loan assets; 0.1% increase in the stage 1 PD, i.e. from 2.3% to 2.4% would result in a £0.8 million increase in ECL.

    Judgements required – Post Model Adjustments (‘PMA’s)

    As at 31 December 2024, the expected credit loss allowance included PMAs totalling £4.6 million (2023: £9.2 million).

    Post Model Adjustments 31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Model performance 1.5 2.0
    Cost of Living 1.3 6.5
    Economic scenarios 1.8 0.7
      4.6 9.2

    PMAs are calculated using management judgement and analysis. The key categories of PMAs are as follows:

    Model performance

    The Loss Given Default (‘LGD’) model considers long run recoveries over a period of up to five years post default. A potential shortfall has been identified for customers that roll straight through the arrears buckets up the point of write off. Although this shortfall is immaterial, an adjustment has been made to ensure it is accounted for in our expected credit loss.

    Cost of Living

    This PMA captures the risk of customers falling into a negative affordability position, whereby customers are no longer able to meet their credit commitments due to higher expenditure driven by increased mortgage payments, when their standard variable or fixed term rate comes to an end. A PMA is held to acknowledge this, using both external and internal data.

    Economic scenarios

    A new econometric model has been implemented to derive our forward-looking view of ECL’s. The model is sensitive to the timing of forecasted peaks in, for example, unemployment rates. Given increased uncertainty driven by geo-political events, management has made an adjustment equivalent to a six-month advancement in the peak point of each scenario.

    Write off policy

    Loans are written off where there is no reasonable expectation of recovery. The Group considers there to be no reasonable expectation of recovery where an extensive set of collections processes has been completed, the debt is statute barred, the debtor cannot be traced or is deceased, or in situations involving significant financial hardship. The Group’s policy is to write down balances to their estimated net realisable value. Write offs are actioned on a case-by-case basis taking into account the operational position and the collections strategy.

    Credit grade information

            31 December 2024 31 December 2023
      Stage 1 
    12 month ECL 
    £m 
    Stage 2 
    Lifetime ECL 
    £m
    Stage 3  
    Lifetime ECL 
    £m
    Total 
    £m
    Total 
    £m
    Credit Grade1          
    Higher 786.5 67.6 854.1 649.3
    Medium 171.2 21.3 192.5 186.6
    Lower 53.9 9.1 63.0 65.4
    Credit impaired 64.4 64.4 55.5
    Gross carrying amount 1,011.6 98.0 64.4 1,174.0 956.8
    Expected credit loss allowance (15.5) (19.8) (48.5) (83.8) (81.1)
    Other loss allowance2 (0.5) (0.5) (0.6)
    Carrying amount – Admiral Money 995.6 78.2 15.9 1,089.7 875.1
    Carrying amount – Other 16.8 0.3 0.1 17.2 4.3
    Carrying amount 1,012.4 78.5 16.0 1,106.9 879.4

    1Credit grade is the internal credit banding given to a customer at origination. This is based on external credit rating information.

    2Other loss allowance covers losses due to a reduction in current or future vehicle value or costs associated with recovery and sale of vehicles and those as a result of changes in the performance of the EIR asset.

    8. Other revenue and co-insurer profit commission

      31 December 2024
      UK Insurance
    £m
    International Insurance
    £m
    Admiral Money
    £m
    Other
    £m
    Total Group
    £m
    Major products/service line        
    Fee and commission revenue 119.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 120.0
    Revenue from law firm 16.3 16.3
    Comparison income
    Total other revenue 135.8 0.1 0.2 0.2 136.3
    Profit commission from co-insurers 53.3 53.3
    Total other revenue and co-insurer profit commission 189.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 189.6
               
    Timing of revenue recognition          
    Point in time 139.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 139.5
    Over time 50.1 50.1
      189.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 189.6
      31 December 2023
      UK Insurance
    £m
    International Insurance
    £m
    Admiral Money
    £m
    Other
    £m
    Total Group
    £m
    Major products/service line        
    Fee and commission revenue 107.2 0.1 107.3
    Revenue from law firm 18.3 18.3
    Comparison income 1.6 1.6
    Total other revenue 125.5 0.1 1.6 127.2
    Profit commission from co-insurers 76.5 2.0 78.5
    Total other revenue and co-insurer profit commission 202.0 2.0 0.1 1.6 205.7
               
    Timing of revenue recognition          
    Point in time 160.4 2.0 0.1 1.6 164.1
    Over time 41.6 41.6
      202.0 2.0 0.1 1.6 205.7

    Profit commission

    The cumulative profit commission recognised at each point in time is calculated in aggregate across the contract, in line with contract terms, based on a number of detailed inputs for each individual underwriting year, the most material of which are as follows:

    • Premiums, defined as gross premiums ceded including any instalment income, less reinsurance premium (for excess of loss reinsurance).
    • Insurance expenses incurred.
    • Claims costs incurred.
      • The Group uses the expected value method for the initial calculation of profit commission revenue, based on known premiums and expenses, and the best estimate of claims costs.
      • The variable revenue estimated using the expected value method above is constrained through the inclusion of the risk adjustment within the claims cost element of the calculation, with the profit commission recognised aligned to the IFRS 17 booked loss ratios, discounted at locked-in rates, and inclusive of finance expense. The inclusion of the risk adjustment constrains the cumulative profit commission revenue recognised to a level where there is a high probability of no significant reversal.

    The key methods, inputs and assumptions used to estimate the variable consideration of profit commission are therefore in line with those used for the calculation of claims liabilities, as set out in note 3 to the financial statements, with further detail also included in note 5. There are no further critical accounting estimates or judgements in relation to the recognition of profit commission.

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Underwriting year    
    2020 & prior 51.7 76.5
    2021
    2022
    2023
    2024 1.6
    Total UK motor profit commission 53.3 76.5

    9. Directly attributable and other expenses

      31 December 2024
      Directly attributable expenses
    £m
    Other operating expenses
    £m
    Total expenses
    £m
    Administration and acquisition expenses 1,015.9 121.3 1,137.2
    Expenses relating to additional products and fees 46.2 46.2
    Share scheme expenses 58.6 35.3 93.9
    Loan expenses (excluding movement on ECL provision) 29.9 29.9
    Movement in expected credit loss provision 34.6 34.6
    Profit on disposal of Insurify share option (12.5) (12.5)
    Other1 73.4 73.4
    Total 1,074.5 328.2 1,402.7
      31 December 2023
      Directly attributable expenses
    £m
    Other operating expenses
    £m
    Total expenses
    £m
    Administration and acquisition expenses 836.8 100.8 937.6
    Expenses relating to additional products and fees 41.4 41.4
    Share scheme expenses 55.3 28.5 83.8
    Loan expenses (excluding movement on ECL provision) 23.0 23.0
    Movement in expected credit loss provision 31.0 31.0
    Other1 57.1 57.1
    Total 892.1 281.8 1,173.9

    1 Other includes centralised costs primarily for employees and projects (2024: £49.9 million, 2023: £34.5 million), business development costs (2024: £19.9 million, 2023: £15.3 million) and other costs (2024: £3.6 million, 2023: £7.3 million).

    10. Taxation

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Current tax    
    Corporation tax on profits for the year 139.3 91.6
    Under provision relating to prior periods 1.8 21.3
    Pillar Two income taxes 15.4
    Current tax charge 156.5 112.9
    Deferred tax    
    Current period deferred taxation movement 16.4 0.7
    Under/(over) provision relating to prior periods 3.4 (8.0)
    Total tax charge per Consolidated Income Statement 176.3 105.6

    Factors affecting the total tax charge are:

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Profit before tax 839.2 442.8
    Corporation tax thereon at effective UK corporation tax rate of 25% (2023: 23.5%) 209.8 104.1
    Expenses and provisions not deductible for tax purposes 4.1 3.0
    Non-taxable income (21.3) (13.4)
    Impact of change in UK tax rate on deferred tax balances (0.4)
    Adjustments relating to prior periods 5.2 13.5
    Impact of Pillar Two income taxes 15.4
    Impact of different overseas tax rates (45.5) (8.9)
    Unrecognised deferred tax 8.6 7.7
    Total tax charge for the period as above 176.3 105.6

    Corporation tax assets as at 31 December 2024 totaled £18.1 million, with corporation tax liabilities of £35.0 million (2023: £20.4 million asset and £4.9 million liabilities). Corporation tax liabilities includes £15.4 million (2023: £nil) relating to Pillar Two income taxes.

    The UK corporation tax rate for 2024 is 25% (2023: 23.5%).

    The Group are within the scope of the OECD Pillar Two model rules which aims to ensure that large, multinational corporations pay their fair share of tax in the countries in which they operate by introducing a new global minimum corporate income tax rate of 15%. Under the new rules, top-up taxes can be payable either by the UK ultimate parent company or by an overseas entity if a jurisdiction has an effective tax rate of less than 15%, as calculated under the rules. Legislation has been enacted in various countries (including the United Kingdom), with the rules first coming into effect for the Group from 1 January 2024.

    A current tax expense of £15.4 million has been included in the total tax charge for the year ended 31 December 2024, which relates to estimated top-up taxes payable by a subsidiary undertaking in Gibraltar, where the statutory corporate tax rate applicable for the year ended 31 December 2024 is 13.8% (due to a change in the rate from 12.5% to 15% from 1 July 2024). No top-up taxes for the year ended 31 December 2024 are expected to arise in relation to operations in other countries. The Pillar Two rules are complex and the Group continues to monitor ongoing developments in legislation and guidance to assess the impact.

    The Group has applied the temporary mandatory exception to recognising and disclosing information about deferred tax assets and liabilities related to Pillar Two income taxes, as provided in the amendments to IAS 12 issued in May 2023.

    11. Other Assets and Other Liabilities

    11a. Intangible assets

    Renewal Rights (included within Customer contracts, relationships and brand)

    Renewal rights are recognised as an intangible asset and amortised using the reducing balance method over an expected useful life determined as ranging between nine and fourteen years. Renewal rights on initial recognition have been recognised at fair value arising through an acquisition.

    The carrying value of renewal rights is reviewed every six months for evidence of impairment, with the value being written down if any impairment exists. Impairment may be reversed if conditions subsequently improve.

    Brand (included within Customer contracts, relationships and brand)

    Brand rights are recognised as an intangible asset and amortised using the straight line method over an expected useful life of fifteen years. Brand rights on initial recognition have been recognised at its fair value arising through an acquisition.

    The carrying value of brand rights is reviewed every six months for evidence of impairment, with the value being written down if any impairment exists. Impairment may be reversed if conditions subsequently improve.

    Goodwill

    All business combinations are accounted for using the acquisition method. Goodwill has been recognised on acquisitions of trade and assets representing a business and/or acquisition of subsidiaries and represents the difference between the cost of the acquisition and the fair value of the net identifiable assets acquired.

    Goodwill is stated at cost less any accumulated impairment losses. Goodwill is allocated to cash generating units (CGUs) according to business segment and is reviewed every six months for evidence of impairment and tested annually for impairment.

      Goodwill
    £m
    Customer contracts, relationships and brand
    £m
    Software – Internally generated
    £m
    Software – Other
    £m
    Total
    £m
    At 1 January 2023 62.3 136.4 18.9 217.6
    Additions 7.9 51.1 7.7 66.7
    Amortisation charge (34.8) (5.5) (40.3)
    Disposals (0.1) (0.1)
    Impairment (0.2) (0.2)
    Foreign exchange movement & other movements (0.4) (0.4) (0.8)
    At 31 December 2023 62.3 7.9 152.0 20.7 242.9
    Additions 49.8 44.5 48.8 3.1 146.2
    Amortisation charge (2.8) (54.5) (4.3) (61.6)
    Disposals (0.3) (0.4) (0.7)
    Impairment (3.5) (0.9) (4.4)
    Transfers 6.2 (6.2)
    Foreign exchange movement & other movements (0.3) (0.6) (0.5) (1.4)
    At 31 December 2024 112.1 49.3 148.1 11.5 321.0

    Customer contracts, relationships and brand includes Home and Pet renewal rights which has a net carrying value of £34.5 million as at 31 December 2024 and an amortisation period of 9 years for Home renewal rights and 14 years for Pet renewal rights. See note 13 for further information. Internally generated software includes a new claims system implemented within the UK business in the year which has a carrying amount of £33.2 million as at 31 December 2024 and a remaining amortisation period of 2.8 years.

    Goodwill relates to the acquisition of Group subsidiary EUI Limited (formerly Admiral Insurance Services Limited) in November 1999, and on the purchase of the direct Home and Pet renewal rights from the RSA Insurance Group Limited (‘RSA’) in April 2024. The carrying amount of goodwill as at 31 December 2024 is £112.1 million (2023: £62.3 million).

    11b. Trade and other payables

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Trade payables 52.4 42.3
    Other tax and social security 12.5 11.9
    Amounts owed to co-insurers 156.9
    Other payables 34.0 42.5
    Accruals and deferred income 76.4 52.2
    Total trade and other payables 175.3 305.8
         
    Analysis of accruals and deferred income    
    Accruals 48.2 28.3
    Deferred income 28.2 23.9
    Total accruals and deferred income as above 76.4 52.2

    11c. Contingent liabilities

    The Group’s legal entities operate in numerous tax jurisdictions and on a regular basis are subject to review and enquiry by the relevant tax authority.

    One of the Group’s previously owned subsidiaries was subject to a Spanish Tax Audit which concluded with the Tax Authority denying the application of the VAT exemption relating to insurance intermediary services. The Company has appealed this decision via the Spanish Courts and is confident in defending its position which is, in its view, in line with the EU Directive and is also consistent with the way similar supplies are treated throughout Europe. Whilst the Company is no longer part of the Admiral Group, the contingent liability which the Company is exposed to has been indemnified by the Admiral Group up to a cap of €24 million.

    No material provisions have been made in these financial statements in relation to the matters noted above. 

    The Group notes the ongoing Court of Appeal ruling relating to non-disclosure of commission to dealers in relation to motor finance. Prior to the Group’s re-launch of motor finance lending, all lending was through price comparison websites. The Group had no lending through dealers and no discretionary commission structures in place. Accordingly the Group does not have an ongoing exposure to commission arrangements of this nature and therefore has not recognised any contingent liability in relation to the case.

    The Group continues to monitor regulatory developments, including the Supreme Court decision which is expected later in 2025, ensuring the customer acquisition practices remain fully aligned with legal and regulatory requirements and industry best practices.

    The Group is, from time to time, subject to threatened or actual litigation and/or legal and/or regulatory disputes, investigations or similar actions both in the UK and overseas. All potentially material matters are assessed, with the assistance of external advisors if appropriate, and in cases where it is concluded that it is more likely than not that a payment will be made, a provision is established to reflect the best estimate of the liability. In some cases it will not be possible to form a view, for example if the facts are unclear or because further time is needed to properly assess the merits of the case or form a reliable estimate of its financial effect. In these circumstances, specific disclosure of a contingent liability and an estimate of its financial effect will be made where material, unless it is not practicable to do so.

    The Directors do not consider that the final outcome of any such current case will have a material adverse effect on the Group’s financial position, operations or cashflows, and as such, no material provisions are currently held in relation to such matters.

    A number of the Group’s contractual arrangements with reinsurers include features that, in certain scenarios, allow for reinsurers to recover losses incurred to date. The overall impact of such scenarios would not lead to an overall net economic outflow from the Group.

    12. Dividends, Earnings and Related Parties

    12a. Dividends

    Dividends were proposed, approved and paid as follows:

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Proposed March 2023 (52.0 pence per share, approved April 2023 and paid June 2023) 154.9
    Declared August 2023 (51.0 pence per share, paid October 2023) 152.2
    Proposed March 2024 (52.0 pence per share, approved April 2024 and paid May 2024) 156.2
    Declared August 2024 (71.0 pence per share, paid October 2024) 213.6
    Total dividends 369.8 307.1

    The dividends proposed in March (approved in April) represent the final dividends paid in respect of the 2022 and 2023 financial years. The dividends declared in August are interim distributions in respect of 2023 and 2024.

    A 2024 final dividend of 121.0 pence per share (approximately £366.6 million) has been proposed. Refer to the financial narrative for further detail.

    12b. Earnings per share

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Profit for the financial year after taxation attributable to equity shareholders 663.3 338.0
    Weighted average number of shares – basic 306,304,676 303,989,170
    Unadjusted earnings per share – basic 216.6p 111.2p
    Weighted average number of shares – diluted 306,304,676 305,052,941
    Unadjusted earnings per share – diluted 216.6p 110.8p

    The difference between the basic and diluted number of shares at the end of 2024 (being nil; 2023: 1,063,771) relates to awards committed, but not yet issued under the Group’s share schemes. Refer to note 9 for further detail.

    12c. Share capital

      31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Authorised    
    500,000,00 ordinary shares of 0.1 pence 0.5 0.5
    Issued, called up and fully paid    
    306,304,676 ordinary shares of 0.1 pence 0.3 0.3

    12d. Related party transactions

    The Board considers that only the Executive and Non-Executive Directors of Admiral Group plc are key management personnel.

    Further detail on the remuneration and shareholdings of key management personnel will be set out in the Directors’ Remuneration Report in the Group’s 2024 Annual Report.

    12e. Post balance sheet events

    During February 2025, the Group entered into an agreement with a third party which resulted in the sale of back book loans with a total carrying value of around £150 million. This agreement, signed after the reporting date, provides for the transfer of these loans to the counterparty in accordance with the agreed terms. Accordingly, no adjustment has been made to the financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2024.

    The financial impact of the sale, including any gain arising from the transaction, will be recognised in the Group’s financial statements for the year ending 31 December 2025.

    In early March 2025, Admiral entered into a memorandum of understanding with a counterparty with a view to signing a purchase agreement to sell Elephant. The agreement, if signed, would be subject to regulatory approval.

    No further events have occurred since the reporting date that materially impact these financial statements.

    13. Business combinations

    As at 2nd April 2024, Admiral successfully completed the purchase of the direct Home and Pet renewal rights from the RSA Insurance Group Limited (‘RSA’), a general insurer based in the UK. The transaction includes the renewal rights, the “More Than” brand and the transfer of more than 280 people but does not include liabilities relating to existing policies which will remain with RSA. The acquisition is closely aligned to Admiral’s strategy to diversify its product offering and build multi-product customer relationships in its core markets. It will strengthen Admiral’s home business and accelerate its direct pet proposition launched in 2022.

    The consideration included an initial cash payment of £82.5 million with contingent consideration of £32.5 million. The contingent consideration has a range of £nil to a maximum of £32.5 million dependent on the number of policies successfully migrated to Admiral. The fair value of the contingent consideration has a value of £2.7 million and is based on a probability weighted scenario including an element of discounting relating to the timing of payments.

    The amounts recognised in respect of the identifiable assets acquired at at the acquisition date are as set out in the table below:

      £m
    Total consideration  
    Amount settled in cash 82.5
    Fair value of contingent consideration 2.7
    Total consideration 85.2
       
    Identifiable assets acquired  
    Renewal Rights 36.4
    Brand 8.1
    Total identifiable assets acquired 44.5
       
    Purchase price recognised as Goodwill 40.7
    Additional Goodwill recognised on Deferred Tax Liability 9.1
    Total Goodwill recognised on acquisition 49.8

    A deferred tax liability has been recognised of £9.1million based upon a tax base cost of £36.4 million representing the fair value of the renewal rights. A corresponding increase in goodwill of £9.1 million is recognised as a result. The goodwill and brand are not considered deductible for tax purposes. The deferred tax liability will unwind in line with the amortisation of the renewal rights acquired.

    The recognition of goodwill reflects the synergies arising through the transaction including operational, capital, pricing and risk synergies, as well as the attributable value to the workforce in place.

    The policies in relation to the acquisition started renewing in July 2024. As at 31 December 2024, transaction costs of £6.5 million have been recognised within operating expenses, along with integration costs of £11.9 million within insurance expenses. The impact of the acquisition if it had happened as at the start of the reporting period is impractical for disclosure given the nature of the trade and assets acquired for integration.

    The acquisition contributed £42.3 million of total premiums written and £9.9 million of insurance revenue, and £3.8 million of expenses for the period between the date of acquisition and the reporting date. Due to the acquired renewal rights being fully integrated into the existing business lines, it is impracticable to separately identify the specific profit contributions.

    14. Reconciliation of turnover to reported insurance premium and other revenue as per the financial statements

    The following table reconciles turnover, a significant Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) and non-GAAP measure presented within the Strategic Report, to insurance revenue, as presented in note 4 to the financial statements.

      Consolidated Financial Statement Note 31 December 2024
    £m
    31 December 2023
    £m
    Insurance revenue related movement in liability for remaining coverage 5b 4,776.2 3,486.1
    Less other insurance revenue   (281.7) (202.8)
    Insurance premium revenue   4,494.5 3,283.3
    Movement in unearned premium and cancellations   346.7 528.3
    Premiums written after coinsurance   4,841.2 3,811.6
    Co-insurer share of written premiums   778.4 577.8
    Total premiums written   5,619.6 4,389.4
    Other insurance revenue 5b 281.7 202.8
    Other revenue 8 136.3 127.2
    Interest income on loans to customers   109.1 92.1
    Turnover as per note 4 of financial statements   6,146.7 4,811.5

    APPENDIX 1 TO THE GROUP FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (unaudited)

    1a: Reconciliation of reported loss and expense ratios: Group

            31 December 2024
    £m Consolidated Financial Statement Note Core product Ancillary income Total gross Total, net of XoL reinsurance
    Insurance premium revenue   4,329.9 164.6 4,494.5 4,329.4
    Administration fees, instalment income and non-separable ancillary commission   281.7 281.7 281.7
    Insurance revenue (A) 5b/5d 4,329.9 446.3 4,776.2 4,611.1
    Insurance expenses (B) 5c (951.4) (64.5) (1,015.9) (1,015.9)
    Claims incurred (C) 5c/5d (2,976.9) (61.1) (3,038.0) (2,980.7)
    Claims releases (D) 5c/5d 556.8 3.2 559.9 425.1
    Claims incurred and releases excluding Ogden1 (E)         (2,661.7)
    Quota share reinsurance result2 4         (294.1)
    Onerous loss component movement3         1.5
    Underwriting result (F)         747.0
    Net share scheme costs4         (36.7)
    Insurance service result         710.3
    Reported loss ratio ((C+D)/A)         55.4%
    Reported loss ratio excluding Ogden1(E/A)         57.7%
    Reported expense ratio (B/A)         22.0%
    Insurance service margin (F/A)         16.2%
            31 December 2023
    £m Consolidated Financial Statement Note Core product Ancillary income Total gross Total, net of XoL reinsurance
    Insurance premium revenue   3,152.3 131.0 3,283.3 3,170.6
    Administration fees, instalment income and non-separable ancillary commission   202.8 202.8 202.8
    Insurance revenue (A) 5b/5d 3,152.3 333.8 3,486.1 3,373.4
    Insurance expenses (B) 5c (795.2) (41.6) (836.8) (836.8)
    Claims incurred (C) 5c/5d (2,624.6) (40.5) (2,665.1) (2,605.8)
    Claims releases (D) 5c/5d 440.6 440.6 447.3
    Quota share reinsurance result2 4         (40.4)
    Onerous loss component movement3         4.9
    Underwriting result (E)         342.6
    Net share scheme costs4         (36.8)
    Insurance service result         305.8
    Reported loss ratio ((C+D)/A)         63.9%
    Reported expense ratio (B/A)         24.8%
    Insurance service margin (E/A)         10.2%

    1 Excludes benefit from the Ogden discount rate change
    2 Quota share reinsurance result excludes quota share reinsurers’ share of share scheme costs and movement in onerous loss-recovery component
    3 Onerous loss component movement is shown net of all reinsurance
    4 Net share scheme costs of £36.7 million (2023: £36.8 million), being gross costs of £58.6 million (2023: £55.3 million, see note 5c) less reinsurers’ share of share scheme costs of £21.9 million (2023: £18.5 million) are excluded from the underwriting result.

    1b. Reconciliation of reported loss and expense ratios: UK Motor

              31 December 2024
    £m Consolidated Financial Statement Note Core product Ancillary income1 Total gross Total, net of XoL reinsurance Core product, net of XoL
    Total premiums written   4,006.6 151.1 4,157.7 4,033.3 3,882.2
    Gross premiums written   3,234.1 151.1 3,385.2 3,284.7 3,133.6
    Insurance premium revenue   3,020.7 139.8 3,160.5 3,062.4 2,922.5
    Instalment income   155.9 155.9 155.9
    Administration fees & non-separable ancillary commission   53.1 53.1 53.1
    Insurance revenue (A) 5b/5d 3,020.7 348.8 3,369.5 3,271.4 2,922.5
    Insurance expenses (B) 5c (530.9) (55.9) (586.8) (586.8) (530.9)
    Claims incurred (C) 5c/5d (2,051.5) (55.6) (2,107.2) (2,078.1) (2,022.5)
    Claims incurred excluding Ogden (D)   (2,078.5) (55.6) (2,134.1) (2,105.1) (2,049.5)
    Claims releases (E) 5c/5d 493.4 2.7 496.1 374.6 371.9
    Claims releases excluding Ogden (F)   414.2 2.7 416.9 295.4 292.7
    Insurance service result, gross of quota share reinsurance   931.7 240.0 1,171.7 981.1 741.0
    Quota share reinsurance result2         (228.8) (228.8)
    Onerous loss component movement         1.1 1.1
    Underwriting result (G)         753.4 513.3
    Current period loss ratio (C/A)         63.5% 69.2%
    Claims releases (E/A)         (11.4)% (12.7)%
    Reported loss ratio ((C+E)/A)         52.1% 56.5%
    Reported expense ratio (B/A)         17.9% 18.2%
    Insurance service margin (G/A)         23.0% 17.6%
    Current period loss ratio excluding
    Ogden (D/A)
            64.3% 70.1%
    Claims releases excluding Ogden (F/A)         (9.0)% (10.0)%
    Reported loss ratio excluding
    Ogden ((D+F)/A)
            55.3% 60.1%
              31 December 2023
    £m Consolidated Financial Statement Note Core product Ancillary income1 Total gross Total, net of XoL reinsurance Core product, net of XoL
    Total premiums written   3,004.3 113.9 3,118.2 3,016.8 2,903.0
    Gross premiums written   2,453.9 113.9 2,567.8 2,485.0 2,371.1
    Insurance premium revenue   2,007.6 107.8 2,115.4 2,053.8 1,946.0
    Instalment income   99.0 99.0 99.0
    Administration fees non-separable ancillary commission   35.8 35.8 35.8
    Insurance revenue (A) 5b/5d 2,007.6 242.6 2,250.2 2,188.6 1,946.0
    Insurance expenses (B) 5c (416.8) (34.4) (451.2) (451.2) (416.8)
    Claims incurred (C) 5c/5d (1,719.9) (35.6) (1,755.5) (1,729.0) (1,693.4)
    Claims releases (D) 5c/5d 406.9 406.9 392.8 392.8
    Insurance service result, gross of quota share reinsurance   277.8 172.6 450.4 401.2 228.6
    Quota share reinsurance result2         (16.8) (16.8)
    Onerous loss component movement         4.1 4.1
    Underwriting result (E)         388.5 215.9
    Current period loss ratio (C/A)         79.0% 87.0%
    Claims releases (D/A)         (17.9)% (20.2)%
    Reported loss ratio ((C+D)/A)         61.1% 66.8%
    Reported expense ratio (B/A)         20.6% 21.4%
    Insurance service margin (E/A)         17.8% 11.1%

    1 Ancillary income combined with other net income is presented as part of UK motor insurance other revenue in reporting “Other revenue per vehicle”. Total other revenue was £321.8 million (2023: £247.3 million).

    2 Net share scheme costs of £29.6 million (2023: £32.1 million), being gross costs of £40.7 million (2023: £43.2 million, see note 5c) less reinsurers’ share of share scheme costs of £11.1 million (2023: £11.1 million) are excluded from the underwriting result.

    1c. Reconciliation of reported loss and expense ratios: UK Non-Motor

      31 December 2024
    £m Consolidated Financial Statement Note UK Household UK Travel & Pet UK Non-Motor UK Household, net of XoL reinsurance
    Insurance revenue (A) 5b/5d 399.6 104.3 503.9 376.4
    Insurance expenses (B) 5c (102.9) (56.0) (158.9) (102.9)
    Claims incurred in the period (C) 5c/5d (233.7) (64.5) (298.2) (225.7)
    Changes in liabilities for incurred claims (releases) (D) 5c/5d 46.3 5.1 51.4 37.0
    Insurance service result, gross of quota share reinsurance   109.3 (11.1) 98.2 84.8
    Quota share reinsurance result1         (61.2)
    Onerous loss component movement        
    Underwriting result (E)         23.6
    Current period loss ratio (C/A)         60.0%
    Claims releases (D/A)         (9.9)%
    Reported loss ratio ((C+D)/A)         50.1%
    Reported expense ratio (B/A)         27.3%
    Insurance service margin (E/A)         6.3%
      31 December 2023
    £m Consolidated Financial Statement Note UK Household UK Travel & Pet UK Non-Motor UK Household, net of XoL reinsurance
    Insurance revenue (A) 5b/5d 292.8 53.8 346.6 275.3
    Insurance expenses (B) 5c (80.9) (27.4) (108.3) (80.9)
    Claims incurred in the period (C) 5c/5d (223.5) (31.4) (254.9) (199.8)
    Changes in liabilities for incurred claims (releases) (D) 5c/5d 8.3 0.8 9.1 6.4
    Insurance service result, gross of quota share reinsurance   (3.3) (4.2) (7.5) 1.0
    Quota share reinsurance result1         (1.4)
    Onerous loss component movement        
    Underwriting result (E)         (0.4)
    Current period loss ratio (C/A)         72.6%
    Claims releases (D/A)         (2.4)%
    Reported loss ratio ((C+D)/A)         70.2%
    Reported expense ratio (B/A)         29.4%
    Insurance service margin (E/A)         (0.1)%

    1Net share scheme costs of £1.6 million (2023: £0.7 million), being gross costs of £5.4 million (2023: £2.4 million, see note 5c) less reinsurers’ share of share scheme costs of £3.8 million (2023: £1.7 million) are excluded from the underwriting result.

    1d. Reconciliation of reported loss and expense ratios: International

      31 December 2024
    £m Consolidated Financial Statement Note Total gross Total, net of XoL reinsurance
    Insurance revenue (A) 5b/5d 829.5 794.2
    Insurance expenses (B) 5c (236.5) (236.5)
    Claims incurred in the period less changes in liabilities for incurred claims (C) 5c/5d (572.6) (564.5)
    Insurance service result, gross of quota share reinsurance   20.4 (6.8)
    Quota share reinsurance result1     (4.1)
    Onerous loss component movement     0.4
    Underwriting result (D)     (10.5)
    Reported loss ratio (C/A)     71.1%
    Reported expense ratio (B/A)     29.8%
    Insurance service margin (D/A)     (1.3)%
      31 December 2023
    £m Consolidated Financial Statement Note Total gross Total, net of XoL reinsurance
    Insurance revenue (A) 5b/5d 842.6 811.8
    Insurance expenses (B) 5c (249.4) (249.4)
    Claims incurred in the period less changes in liabilities for incurred claims (C) 5c/5d (596.9) (565.2)
    Insurance service result, gross of quota share reinsurance   (3.7) (2.8)
    Quota share reinsurance result1     (22.1)
    Onerous loss component movement     0.6
    Underwriting result (D)     (24.3)
    Reported loss ratio (C/A)     69.6%
    Reported expense ratio (B/A)     30.7%
    Insurance service margin (D/A)     (3.0)%

    1 Net share scheme costs of £4.3 million (2023: £3.2 million), being gross costs of £11.1 million (2023: £8.9 million, see note 5c) less reinsurers’ share of share scheme costs of £6.8 million (2023: £5.7 million) are excluded from the underwriting result.

    APPENDIX 2 TO THE GROUP FINANCIAL STATEMENTS (unaudited)

    The following table of non-GAAP measures illustrates the sensitivity of profit and loss (before tax) arising from the impact of 100 and 200 basis point increases and decreases in interest rates over the financial year 2024.

    2a. Additional sensitivities to interest rate risk

      31 December 2024
      Insurance contract liabilities and reinsurance contract assets Cash and investments
    £m Impact on profit before tax gross of reinsurance Impact on profit before tax net of reinsurance Impact on profit before tax
    Increase of 100 basis points 25.9 25.9 19.9
    Decrease of 100 basis points (28.5) (28.5) (19.9)
    Increase of 200 basis points 49.8 49.8 39.8
    Decrease of 200 basis points (60.6) (60.6) (39.8)

    Changes impact profit before tax as follows:

    • Interest revenue and other finance costs on floating-rate financial instruments (assuming that interest rates had varied by 100 basis points during the year)
    • Interest revenue and other finance costs on floating-rate financial instruments (assuming that interest rates had varied by 100 basis points during the year)
    • Changes in the discounted fulfilment cashflows of onerous contracts
    • Insurance claims expenses, reinsurance claims recoveries and finance income or expenses recognised in profit or loss, as a result of discounting future cashflows at a revised locked-in rate for the current period (i.e. assuming that interest rates had varied by 100 basis points during the year).

    Glossary

    Alternative Performance Measures

    Throughout this report, the Group uses a number of Alternative Performance Measures (APMs); measures that are not required or commonly reported under International Financial Reporting Standards, the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP) under which the Group prepares its financial statements.

    These APMs are used by the Group, alongside GAAP measures, for both internal performance analysis and to help shareholders and other users of the Annual Report and financial statements to better understand the Group’s performance in the period in comparison to previous periods and the Group’s competitors.

    The table below defines and explains the primary APMs used in this report. Financial APMs are usually derived from financial statement items and are calculated using consistent accounting policies to those applied in the financial statements, unless otherwise stated. Non-financial KPIs incorporate information that cannot be derived from the financial statements but provide further insight into the performance and financial position of the Group.

    APMs may not necessarily be defined in a consistent manner to similar APMs used by the Group’s competitors. They should be considered as a supplement rather than a substitute for GAAP measures.

    Turnover Turnover is defined as total premiums written (as below), Other insurance revenue, Other revenue and interest income from Admiral Money. It is reconciled to financial statement line items in note 14 to the financial statements.
    This measure has been presented by the Group in every Annual Report since it became a listed Group in 2004. It reflects the total value of the revenue generated by the Group and analysis of this measure over time provides a clear indication of the size and growth of the Group.
    The measure was developed as a result of the Group’s business model. The UK Car insurance business has historically shared a significant proportion of the risks with Munich Re, a third party reinsurance Group, through a co-insurance arrangement, with the arrangement subsequently being replicated in some of the Group’s international insurance operations. Premiums and claims accruing to the external co-insurer are not reflected in the Group’s income statement and therefore presentation of this metric enables users of the Annual Report to see the scale of the Group’s insurance operations in a way not possible from taking the income statement in isolation.
    Total Premiums Written Total premiums written are the total forecast premiums, net of forecast cancellations written in the underwriting year within the Group, including co-insurance. It is reconciled to financial statement line items in note 14 to the financial statements.
    This measure has been presented by the Group in every Annual Report since it became a listed Group in 2004. It reflects the total premiums written by the Group’s insurance intermediaries and analysis of this measure over time provides a clear indication of the growth in premiums, irrespective of how co-insurance agreements have changed over time.
    The reasons for presenting this measure are consistent with that for the Turnover APM noted above.
    Underwriting result (profit or loss) For each insurance business an underwriting result is presented. This shows the insurance segment result before tax excluding investment income, finance expenses, co-insurer profit commission and other net income. It excludes both gross share scheme costs and any assumed quota share reinsurance recoveries on those share scheme costs.
    The calculations and compositions of the underwriting result are presented within Appendix 1 to these financial statements.
    Loss Ratio Loss ratios are reported as follows:
    Reported loss ratios are expressed as a percentage, of claims incurred, on a gross basis net of XoL reinsurance, divided by insurance revenue net of XoL reinsurance premiums ceded.
    The reported loss ratios use the total claims, and earned premium and related income (instalment income, administration fees and ancillary income where it is highly correlated to the core product). It is understood that this is consistent with the approach taken by peers, and it is considered to reflect the true profitability of products sold.
    Core product loss ratios use the total claims and earned premiums for the core product only (insurance premiums excluding instalment income, administration fees & ancillary income). This measure is more consistent with that used previously, and are reflective of the performance of the core product in a line of business.
    The calculations and compositions of the loss ratios are presented within Appendix 1 to these financial statements.
    Expense Ratio Expense ratios are reported as follows:
    Reported expense ratios are expressed as a percentage, of expenses incurred, on a gross basis excluding share scheme costs, divided by insurance revenue net of XoL reinsurance premiums ceded.The reported expense ratios use the total expenses (excluding share scheme costs), and earned premium and related income (instalment income, administration fees and ancillary income where it is highly correlated to the core product). It is understood that this is consistent with the approach taken by peers, and it is considered to reflect the true profitability of products sold.
    Core product expense ratios use the total expenses (excluding share scheme costs) and earned premiums for the core product only (insurance premiums excluding instalment income, administration fees & ancillary income). This measure is more consistent with that used previously, and are reflective of the performance of the core product in a line of business.
    Written expense ratios are calculated using total expenses (excluding share scheme costs) and written premiums, net of cancellation provision, for the core product only.
    The calculations of the reported expense ratios are presented within Appendix 1 to the financial statements.
    Combined Ratio Combined ratios are the sum of the loss and expense ratios as defined above. Explanation of these figures is noted above.
    Insurance service margin This is the reported insurance segment underwriting result, divided by insurance revenue net of excess of loss premiums ceded. Reconciliation of the calculations are provided in Appendix 1.
    Quota share result The total result (ceded premiums minus ceded recoveries) from contractual quota share arrangements, excluding the quota share reinsurer’s share of share scheme expenses, finance expenses and onerous loss component. Reconciliation of the calculations are provided in Appendix 1.
    Segment result The profit or loss before tax reported for individual business segments, which exclude net share scheme costs and other central expenses.
    Return on Equity Return on equity is calculated as profit after tax for the period attributable to equity holders of the Group divided by the average total equity attributable to equity holders of the Group in the year. This average is determined by dividing the opening and closing positions for the year by two. It excludes the impact of discontinued operations.
    Group Customers Group customer numbers reflect the total number of cars, vans, households and pets on cover at the end of the year, across the Group, and the total number of travel insurance, Admiral Money and Admiral Business customers.
    This measure has been presented by the Group in every Annual Report since it became a listed Group in 2004. It reflects the size of the Group’s customer base and analysis of this measure over time provides a clear indication of the growth. It is also a useful indicator of the growing significance to the Group of the different lines of business and geographic regions.
    The measure has been restated from 2022 onwards to exclude Veygo policies, given the significant fluctuations that can arise at a point in time as a result of the short-term nature of the product.
    Solvency Ratio The Solvency UK regulatory framework requires insurers to hold funds in excess of the Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR). Own funds are available capital resources determined under Solvency UK. The SCR is calculated at a Group level using the standard formula, to reflect the cost of mitigating the risk of insolvency to a 99.5% confidence level over a one-year time horizon – equivalent to a 1 in 200 year event – against financial and non-financial shocks.

    Additional Terminology

    There are many other terms used in this report that are specific to the Group or the markets in which it operates. These are defined as follows:

    Accident year The year in which an accident occurs. Claims incurred may be presented on an accident year basis or an underwriting year basis, the latter sees the claims attach to the year in which the insurance policy incepted.
    Actuarial best estimate The probability-weighted average of all future claims and cost scenarios calculated using historical data, actuarial methods and judgement.
    ASHE ‘Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings’ – a statistical index that is typically used for calculating the inflation of annual payment amounts under Periodic Payment Order (PPO) claims settlements.
    Claims reserves A monetary amount set aside for the future payment of incurred claims that have not yet been settled, thus representing a balance sheet liability.
    Co-insurance An arrangement in which two or more insurance companies agree to underwrite insurance business on a specified portfolio in specified proportions. Each co-insurer is directly liable to the policyholder for their proportional share.
    Commutation An agreement between a ceding insurer and the reinsurer that provides for the valuation, payment, and complete discharge of all obligations between the parties under a particular reinsurance contract.
    The Group typically commutes UK motor insurance quota share contracts after 24-36 months from the start of an underwriting year where it makes economic sense to do so.
    Earnings per share Earnings per share represents the profit after tax attributable to equity shareholders, divided by the weighted average number of basic shares.
    Effective Tax Rate Effective tax rate is defined as the approximate tax rate derived from dividing the tax charge going through the income statement by the Group’s profit before tax. It is a measure historically presented by the Group and enables users to see how the tax cost incurred by the Group compares over time and to current corporation tax rates.
    EIOPA European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority: EIOPA is the European supervisory authority for occupational pensions and insurance.
    Expected credit loss (ECL) Expected Credit Loss (ECL) is the probability-weighted estimate of credit losses over the expected life of a Financial Instrument.
    Insurance market cycle The tendency for the insurance market to swing between highs and lows of profitability over time, with the potential to influence premium rates (also known as the “underwriting cycle”).
    Claims net of XoL reinsurance The cost of claims incurred in the period, less any claims costs recovered via salvage and subrogation arrangements or under XoL reinsurance contracts. It includes both claims payments and movements in claims reserves.
    Excess of Loss (‘XoL’) reinsurance Contractual arrangements whereby the Group transfers part or all of the insurance risk accepted to another insurer on an excess of loss (‘XoL’) basis (full reinsurance for claims over an agreed value).
    Insurance premium revenue Insurance premium revenue reflects the expected premium receipts allocated to the period based on the passage of time, adjusted for seasonality if required. It excludes “Other insurance revenue” as defined below.
    Insurance premium revenue net of XoL Insurance premium revenue less the ceded XoL reinsurance earned in the period.
    Other Insurance revenue Insurance revenue minus insurance premium revenue as defined above. Other insurance revenue is comprised of revenue that is considered non-separable from the core insurance product sold and therefore under IFRS 17 is reported within insurance revenue. For the Group, this is typically the instalment income, administration fees and any other non-separable income related to the Group’s retained share of the underwritten products.
    Net promotor score NPS is currently measured based on a subset of customer responding to a single question: On a scale of 0-10 (10 being the best score), how likely would you recommend our Company to a friend, family or colleague through phone, online or email. Answers are then placed in 3 groups; Detractors: scores ranging from 0 to 6; Passives/neutrals: scores ranging from 7 to 8; Promoters: scores ranging from 9 to 10 and the final NPS score is : % of promoters – % of detractors
    Ogden discount rate The discount rate used in calculation of personal injury claims settlements in the UK.
    Periodic Payment Order (PPO) A compensation award as part of a claims settlement that involves making a series of annual payments to a claimant over their remaining life to cover the costs of the care they will require.
    Premium A series of payments are made by the policyholder, typically monthly or annually, for part of or all of the duration of the contract. Written premium refers to the total amount the policyholder has contracted for, whereas earned premium refers to the recognition of this premium over the life of the contract.
    Profit commission A clause found in some reinsurance and co-insurance agreements that provides for profit sharing. Co-insurer profit commission is presented separately on the income statement whilst reinsurer profit commissions are presented within the reinsurance result, as a part of any recovery for incurred claims.
    Quota share reinsurance result Admiral’s quota share (QS) reinsurance result reflects the net movement on ceded premiums, reinsurer margins and expected recoveries (claims and expenses, excluding share scheme charges) for underwriting years on which quota share reinsurance is in place.
    Regulatory Solvency Capital Requirement (‘SCR’) The Group’s Regulatory Solvency Capital Requirement (SCR) is an amount of capital that it should hold in addition to its liabilities in order to provide a cushion against unexpected events. In line with the rulebook of the Group’s regulator, the PRA, the Group’s SCR is calculated using the Solvency II Standard Formula, and includes a fixed capital add-on to reflect limitations in the Standard Formula with respect to Admiral’s risk profile (predominately in respect of co-and reinsurance profit commission arrangements and risks relating to Periodic Payment Orders (PPOs). The Group’s current fixed capital add-on of £24 million was approved by the PRA during 2023.
    The Group is required to maintain eligible Own Funds ( Solvency II capital) equal to at least 100% of the Group SCR. Both eligible Own Funds and the Group SCR are reported to the PRA on a quarterly basis and reported publicly on an annual basis in the Group’s Solvency and Financial Condition Report.
    Admiral separately calculates a ‘dynamic’ capital add-on and has used this this to report a solvency capital requirement and solvency ratio at the date of this report. A reconciliation between the regulatory solvency ratio and that calculated on a dynamic basis is included in note 3 to the Group financial statements.
    Reinsurance Contractual arrangements whereby the Group transfers part or all of the insurance risk accepted to another insurer. This can be on a quota share basis (a percentage share of premiums, claims and expenses) or an excess of loss (‘XoL’) basis (full reinsurance for claims over an agreed value).
    Scaled Agile Scaled Agile is a framework that uses a set of organisational and workflow patterns for implementing agile practices at an enterprise scale. Scaled agile at Admiral represents the ability to drive agile at the team level whilst applying the same sustainable principles of the group.
    Securitisation A process by which a group of assets, usually loans, is aggregated into a pool, which is used to back the issuance of new securities. A Company transfer assets to a special purpose entity (SPE) which then issues securities backed by the assets.
    Solvency ratio A ratio of an entity’s Solvency II capital (referred to as Own Funds) to Solvency Capital Requirement. Unless otherwise stated, Group solvency ratios include a reduction to Own Funds for a foreseeable dividend (i.e. dividends relating to the relevant financial period that will be paid after the balance sheet date)
    Special Purpose Entity (SPE) An entity that is created to accomplish a narrow and well-defined objective. There are specific restrictions or limited around ongoing activities. The Group uses an SPE set up under a securitisation programme.
    Ultimate loss ratio A projected actuarial best estimate loss ratio for a particular accident year or underwriting year.
    Underwriting year The year in which an insurance policy was incepted.
    Underwriting year basis Also referred to as the written basis. Claims incurred are allocated to the calendar year in which the policy was underwritten. Underwriting year basis results are calculated on the whole account (including co-insurance and reinsurance shares) and include all premiums, claims, expenses incurred and other revenue (for example instalment income and commission income relating to the sale of products that are ancillary to the main insurance policy) relating to policies incepting in the relevant underwriting year.
    Written/Earned basis An insurance policy can be written in one calendar year but earned over a subsequent calendar year.

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI China: J-10 fighter jet fires at ground target

    Source: People’s Republic of China – Ministry of National Defense

      A pilot assigned to an aviation brigade with the air force under the Chinese PLA Southern Theater Command adjusts himself for take-off during a multi-subject live-fire ground attack training exercise on February 20, 2025. (eng.chinamil.com.cn/Photo by Wang Guoyun)

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    MIL OSI China News

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: DHL Group and IOM Forge Global Partnership to Enhance Lifesaving, Humanitarian Logistics 

    Source: International Organization for Migration (IOM)

    Geneva/Bonn, 26 February 2025 – DHL Group, the world’s leading logistics company, and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) today announced the signing of a new global partnership agreement that will mark a milestone in DHL Group and IOM’s ongoing collective efforts to enhance humanitarian logistics and lifesaving aid projects worldwide. 

    The collaboration between DHL and IOM encompasses initiatives across various regions, with ongoing projects in Kenya, Lebanon, Sudan, and Türkiye, as well as capacity-building programs planned for Greece and Panama. The new agreement establishes a formal legal framework for that collaboration, minimizing potential hurdles and enabling seamless coordination on various projects. 

    “This partnership strengthens our commitment to humanitarian logistics, improving our capacity to coordinate and manage responses, ensuring critical aid reaches those in need,” said Mayyada Ansari, Global Head of GoHelp – Disaster Preparedness and Response. “Building on the success of the DHL GoHelp/IOM pilot project in Kenya, we aim to scale disaster preparedness and relief efforts globally, supporting communities and strengthening resilience.”

    “Our partnership with DHL exemplifies our shared dedication to supporting those in need during times of crisis,” said Catalina Devandas, IOM Director General Representative and Senior Director for Partnerships, Advocacy, and Communications. “By combining our expertise, we can enhance efficiency and expand our impact, ensuring more effective support for people in crisis. We look forward to the opportunities that lie ahead for our continued collaboration.” 

    One example of that collaboration came in 2024, when flooding in Kenya displaced thousands, and jeopardized clean water access. In response, DHL GoHelp, with its efficient coordination, ensured that 1,000 donated water filters from the US reached Kenya. These filters, essential for providing clean water, helped thousands of flood-affected individuals who lacked access to safe drinking water. Through their expertise, GoHelp coordinated the project, while their Disaster Response Team in Kenya assisted in assembling and distributing the filter kits to affected communities. This initiative underscores GoHelp’s strong commitment to humanitarian aid and their dedication to supporting disaster-affected communities. 

    DHL’s GoHelp program focuses on disaster management, providing logistics expertise and support to communities affected by natural disasters. Through GoHelp, the Group collaborates with various humanitarian organizations to improve emergency response capabilities and build resilience in vulnerable regions. 

    For more information, please contact:

    At IOM: Amber Christino, achristino@iom.int

    At DHL: Jessica Balleer, pressestelle@dhl.com

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-Evening Report: Bell Shakespeare brings vitality and cracking pace to Henry 5

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kirk Dodd, Lecturer in English and Writing, University of Sydney

    Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

    Shakespeare’s Henry V (stylised by Bell Shakespeare as Henry 5) is famous for many things. Henry’s rousing speeches. Its chorus directly addressing the audience. Its critical treatment of war. Its comic characters like Fluellen. And the comic exchanges between the French Princess and her maid Alice, trying to speak English.

    For theatre directors, these each serve as different tracks in a mixing deck that can be dialled up or down to temper the treatment of the play.

    Director Marion Potts is a master of this art, bringing vitality and a cracking pace to a big play delivered in less than two hours.

    A world at war

    The play extends the life of Prince Hal from the Henry IV plays. He has forsaken the Boar’s Head Tavern and rejected his friendship with Falstaff, emerging as a politically astute King Henry V: a valiant monarch who will ultimately lead his depleted army to victory over the French at Azincourt.

    This play begins with Henry (JK Kazzi) seeking rightful justifications for his plans to invade France from the Archbishop of Canterbury (Jo Turner). This involves a lengthy speech by Canterbury about detailed legalities; Turner transforms this into a comic tour de force.

    The archbishop could justify just about anything. This brings early and unexpected laughter, but allows the spirit of Shakespeare to shine too, who seems to be showing us the absurdities of war: how quickly politics can be moulded to subjective aims.

    Our world, and the world of our children, continues to be at war. Shakespeare’s canon offers cathartic ways of reflecting on troubled times within the safety of the theatre.

    No specific war is directly paralleled – although the pluck of Zelensky might be echoed in Henry’s costume.
    Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

    Thankfully, no specific war is directly paralleled – although the pluck of Volodymyr Zelensky might be echoed in Henry’s costume (t-shirts, sports jacket, cargo pants). Zelensky’s ethos seems to share some of the youth and people’s touch possessed by King Henry. And Zelensky was recently required to defend his dress code as a leader who remains at war, stating: “I will wear [a] costume after this war will finish”.

    Costumes by Anna Tregloan distribute similar tones across the English and French soldiers, refreshingly devoid of khaki garb. These emphasise the youth of the armies, dressed in streetwear with guerilla flair, sporting boxing boots.

    The prominence of body training throughout serves as an expression of youth and a perpetual readying for conflict.

    Potts states in the program:

    the world of our production carries the vestiges of wars past and the seeds of those to come. A world either in perpetual ‘training’ for wars or delivering on its brutal promise.

    Exposing vulnerabilities

    Nothing is lost in the clarity of the performances, which bring a vocal muscle to Shakespeare’s lines.

    Kazzi is charismatic as the leading man, using fervency and understatement. His first set-piece, urging his troops with “Once more unto the breach, dear friends, once more!” stays low, to use a term from cricket, and could be pitched higher in its emphatic urgings, but Kazzi finds excellent range thereafter.

    Kazzi, as Henry, finds excellent range in his performance.
    Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

    The neat set ploy of using a chair and microphone at which various characters sit to deliver the chorus sections works very well with Jethro Woodward’s sound design.

    Perhaps emulating a battleground tribunal, the microphone connected us intimately with individual characters. Westmoreland (Alex Kirwan), the King’s dutiful mate, opens the show with “O for a muse of fire!”, quite articulately from a soldier unaccustomed to public speaking.

    Exeter (Ella Prince) is a warrior amused by all the fuss. English soldiers (Rishab Kern and Harrison Mills) show sensitivity and convey the vulnerabilities of war. And the duo of French Princess Katherine (Ava Madon) and her warm and vibrant attendant, Alice (Odile Le Clezio), hit perfect moments of comic relief as two French women rehearsing the English language.

    Political rhetoric

    The play is otherwise stripped of several comic characters (you won’t see the Welshman Fluellen, or Bardolph, or Pistol on stage), permitting its speedy run with a relentless focus on the war. This breach is filled by the comic subplot of Alice and Princess Katherine, preparing for the outcome of the conflict.

    The movable scaffold of the main set (Tregloan) proves surprisingly versatile, especially with atmospheric lighting and blackouts (Verity Hampson).

    Potts’ use of a screen for subtitles allows her to daringly translate Shakespeare’s lines, so French characters speak mostly French. The musicality of the French language adds ardour and humour, while emphasising the cultural divide of the two warring nations.

    Henry V is a play renowned for showing King Henry as a shrewd leader who must achieve great victories for his country, even by committing war crimes.

    Henry V shows King Henry as a shrewd leader who must achieve great victories, even by committing war crimes.
    Brett Boardman/Bell Shakespeare

    While Henry’s threats of the worst kinds of violence against women and children can be framed as political rhetoric (using harsh words to bring about peaceful ends), he strategically commands the slaying of prisoners when outnumbered by the French.

    While war crimes were beginning to be codified in Shakespeare’s day, he seems to suggest true war heroes are rare, while innocent victims are common.

    Potts’ re-construal of the final scene, often a clumsy betrothal between Henry and Katherine, is made more uncomfortable as Henry flippantly repeats his relentless design to marry her, despite her protestations. While royal weddings were often political instruments at the time, it all seems to be a hollow victory for Henry, who seems suddenly too shell-shocked to care anymore for the rich realm he fought to posses.

    Henry 5, from Bell Shakespeare, is at the Sydney Opera House until April 5, then touring to Wollongong, Canberra and Melbourne.

    Kirk Dodd does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Bell Shakespeare brings vitality and cracking pace to Henry 5 – https://theconversation.com/bell-shakespeare-brings-vitality-and-cracking-pace-to-henry-5-249152

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: The morning after: here’s what to do once Cyclone Alfred has passed

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yetta Gurtner, Adjunct Senior Lecturer, Centre for Disaster Studies, James Cook University

    Cyclone Alfred is due to cross the coast of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales late on Friday night or early Saturday morning. Millions of people may wake to a giant mess, if they get any sleep at all.

    So how do you stay safe while you begin the clean up and recovery? It can be helpful to have a plan of action ready, before the time comes.

    First, be prepared to stay inside for a day or so, even after the wild weather has passed. You may have to manage without essential services for a while. And there are several important steps to take before venturing outside.

    I have 20 years’ experience in disaster studies, including how communities can recover. Here’s what you need to know about surviving the morning after Cyclone Alfred.

    Before you leave your safe room

    Say you’ve chosen to “shelter in place”, in the safest room in the house. That’s the smallest room with the fewest windows – usually a bathroom, in a hall or a room under the stairs.

    Do not leave this room until you have been told it’s safe to do so by authorities. Even after the storm has passed, the wind gusts can be very unpredictable. Depending on your location, floodwater may still be a threat.

    If you still have access to the internet, check the digital disaster dashboard online. In Queensland, every council has their own disaster dashboard. New South Wales has the Hazards Near Me app.

    Tune into your local ABC radio station for official emergency updates, warnings and advice. Make sure you have
    spare batteries and even a backup AM-FM radio. Try to minimise use of your mobile phone to conserve battery power and network capacity. SMS/text messages are more likely to get through than phone calls.

    While you wait for normal services to resume

    After the cyclone there may be no power, internet, mobile telephone reception or water supply to your home. This may persist for some time.

    Ahead of the cyclone, try to store enough drinking water to provide three litres per person for several days (don’t forget water for your pets). Store water in bottles in the freezer – it keeps it cool if the power goes out and can be drinking water when it melts. You also need extra water for hygiene, cleaning up and toileting. Fill your bathtub or top-loading washing machine with water before the storm approaches.

    During a flood, sewage may come up through the toilet and the drains of dwellings on the ground level. Before the cyclone, cover your drains with plastic sheeting with a sandbag on top for weight. Place a plastic bag full of sand inside the toilet to form a plug and close the seat. Consider a bucket as a short-term option for toileting.

    Wait for flood waters to recede before unsealing the toilet. When the storm has passed, check local council advice on whether the sewage system is functioning before attempting to flush the toilet again.

    If the power has been out your fridge can remain cool, however food inside may no longer be safe to eat. If items in your freezer have started to defrost, either cook immediately or dispose of them. Some medicines requiring refrigeration will also have to be thrown out.

    Don’t use electric appliances if they are wet and check for any potential gas leaks from gas appliances before use.

    Severe Weather Update 6 March 2025: Tropical Cyclone Alfred moving more slowly towards the coast.

    Contact your insurance provider immediately

    If you are likely to make an insurance claim, contact your insurer straight away for advice.

    The insurance company will probably ask for your policy number. Try to have it (and other important documents) on hand – perhaps in a waterproof wallet, or as photos on your phone.

    Don’t go straight into clean up and recovery mode until you have checked their requirements. Ripping up wet carpets and throwing out your belongings may not be consistent with your insurance policy. Disposing of proof of damage may cause your claim to be rejected.

    Approaches vary between insurance companies. They may require photographs or a written inventory of damaged items. For instance, floodwater will often leave a high-water mark on the walls. Take a photo with a ruler or bottle for reference. The more you can document, the less the insurance company can dispute.

    Before you head outside

    Don’t leave your house until officials say it is safe to do so.

    If you have it, put on protective clothing and equipment including fully covered shoes, gloves, glasses, and an N95 mask. Wear a hat, long pants and long sleeves.

    Keep your children and pets secure inside for as long as you can, until you know the area is safe and clear.

    Switch off your electricity, gas and solar system prior to severe weather. Before switching everything back on, check your house and appliances for any obvious damage. Then check with your utility service provider that all is in order.

    Even if your house is without power, downed power lines may be live. Do not touch them, even if only wanting to move them. Call 000 if it is life threatening, or contact your local energy provider.

    Check for obvious structural damage to the house such as broken windows, water leaks or damaged roofs (such as missing tiles or screws). Beware of fallen or windswept debris and broken glass.

    Look out for wildlife and pests, including venomous snakes and spiders. Don’t poke anything to check if it’s alive.

    Before you start cleaning up

    Wear protective gear when dealing with water-damaged goods and mud. Don’t touch your face at all and if you can, wear a protective N95 mask.

    The mud and dirty water may be contaminated, so be sure to disinfect and wash your hands thoroughly.

    If you have cuts and scrapes, disinfect and cover them immediately, because there’s a high chance of infection.

    Following floods in Northern Queensland this year, 16 people died after being infected with melioidosis, a bacterium found in mud. The bug is more prevalent after heavy rainfall. If you feel unwell, seeking medical advice.

    Mould is another big issue after heavy rain and flooding. Open your windows to ventilate.

    Before you venture further afield

    Resist the urge to go sightseeing. Check on your neighbours and vulnerable community members neighbours instead.

    Talk to friends, family, neighbours and contacts about how you’re feeling. Be honest. It’s perfectly normal to feel anxious and upset after a disaster event.

    If you need extra assistance, seek help. Community recovery hubs will be set up and they will have a list of telephone numbers for support. Use the services available.

    Check your local disaster dashboard or app for up-to-date information on road closures, evacuation centres, and other emergency details.

    Yetta Gurtner has received funding in the past from the Bureau of Meteorology. She is a community engagement officer with the Queensland State Emergency Services.

    ref. The morning after: here’s what to do once Cyclone Alfred has passed – https://theconversation.com/the-morning-after-heres-what-to-do-once-cyclone-alfred-has-passed-251602

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Celebrating our incredible women of CFA

    Source: Victoria Country Fire Authority

    CFA member Natalie Thresher

    CFA is celebrating its thousands of women members this International Women’s Day who dedicate their lives to protecting others every day.

    This year’s theme Accelerate Action is about creating a gender equal world, which CFA acknowledges through its women who make up 24 percent of our volunteer base, 14 percent of those in brigade leadership roles.

    Chirnside Park Fire Brigade volunteer Natalie Thresher, who recently marked 10 years of volunteering with CFA, said the past decade has taught her resilience and strength that she didn’t know was possible.

    “I’ve been part of CFA longer than I was a teenager, longer than I was at any school and longer that I’ve worked at any job,” Natalie said.

    “It’s been challenging, it’s been confronting and rewarding, it has shaped me and brought me great pride.

    “It has solidified the broad definition of family, there is nothing within CFA that can be done alone and there have been so many people along the way that have built me up and contributed to my success.”

    CFA has many strong women educators across the state, with Natalie coordinating state run driving courses in her full-time role as a CFA staff member.  Natalie said she has always felt well supported and valued in both her roles as a volunteer and staff member.

    “I’ve never had issues because of my gender, I’ve never had any walls put up, I’ve always been accepted as an individual,” Natalie said.

    “There are so many different elements of being a CFA member that we need everyone to be a part of. Everyone has a strength which can be utilised at CFA.

    “I feel lucky to be part of the CFA community and I feel very included. I’m proud of the team.”

    International Women’s Day (IWD) is a chance to recognise the steps taken, acknowledge the work we have to do and celebrate the contributions that women make to society globally.

    CFA volunteer and General Manager of Infrastructure Services Paul Santamaria was named the joint winner of the Diversity and Inclusion Champion Award at today’s Emergency Services Foundation IWD event. Paul received this award for his leadership in all his roles at CFA, including the Diversity and Inclusion Steering Committee where he champions what it means to recognise individuality, inclusivity and deliver programs across CFA that are free of bias and equitable for all.

    CFA’s Young Leaders Mentoring Program also received an encouragement award in the Gender Inclusivity Initiative section for equipping young volunteers with essential leadership and management skills, preparing them for future leadership roles within CFA.

    CFA CEO Greg Leach said Paul’s award and the encouragement award were incredible achievements which showcase CFA’s ongoing dedication and commitment to providing a safe, inclusive and supportive environment.

    “CFA has implemented a number of programs over the past few years to ensure CFA women are given the opportunity to thrive,” Greg said.

    “The first female-only Driver Education Course was held last year, with six women successfully completing the course. These women are now qualified to deliver driver training to brigades in their area and across the state, further boosting CFA’s high-class training for our members.

    “Women’s challenge camps are now rolling out across the state, encouraging women to step outside their comfort zone, learn new skills and build relationships with others across their region.

    “During the recent fires in the west of the state, it was pleasing to see and hear countless stories of women leading the charge on Strike Teams and at Incident Control Centres, coming from across the state to help protect those communities during a challenging time.

    “Our women often say they don’t see themselves as different to their male peers. They’re not ‘a women firefighter’, they’re just ‘a firefighter’. And that’s exactly how we hope every woman in CFA feels about their role in this organisation.

    “Our members are highly skilled and trained individuals with the same goal – to protect life and property.

    “We will always have work to do to build a better world for women and gender diverse people but CFA has so much to be proud of and I look forward to guiding and supporting this great organisation in continuing this valuable work.”

    To find out more about International Women’s Day, click here.

    • CFA’s Paul Santamaria
    • From L-R: Alex Reid, Jen Clements, Chris Melenhorst
    • Natalie Thresher at the 2022 Flowerdale fire
    Submitted by CFA Media

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Australia: Charges – Firearm offences – Darwin

    Source: Northern Territory Police and Fire Services

    The Northern Territory Police Force has revoked two NT firearms licences from a 70-year-old man after he attempted to send a prohibited firearm in the mail in March 2024.

    A referral was made to the Northern Territory Police Firearms Audit and Enforcement Unit after Western Australia Police intercepted a package on 6 March 2024 containing a prohibited firearm concealed within a videocassette recorder.

    Investigations were conducted which identified the sender as a 70-year-old man intending to supply the firearm to a WA firearms licence holder.

    NT Police served the man a Notice to Appear in court for a number of firearm offences including:

    • Send Firearm by Mail

    • Posses Firearm with Altered ID Marks

    • Fail to Dispose of Firearm

    The man appeared in court on 26 February 2025 where he was fined and has subsequently had his NT firearms licences revoked for 10 years, resulting in the seizure of his 200 registered firearms.

    Acting Senior Sergeant Aaron Chapman said “NT Police remain steadfast in their commitment to public safety and will continue to investigate all reported firearm related offences. We want to remind the community that firearm ownership is a privilege granted to responsible licence holders, not a right.

    “Any failure to comply with licence conditions or the provisions of the Firearms Act 1997 will be thoroughly investigated.”

    Anyone with information on illegal or misuse of firearms is encouraged to report it on 131 444. You can also report anonymously through Crime Stoppers on 1800 333 000 or through https://crimestoppersnt.com.au

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cyclone Alfred is slowing – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Ritchie-Tyo, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Monash University

    Cyclone Alfred has now been delayed, as the slow-moving system stalls in warm seas off southeast Queensland. Unfortunately, the expected slow pace of the cyclone will bring even more rain to affected communities.

    This is because it will linger for longer over the same location, dumping more rain before it moves on. Alfred’s slowing means the huge waves triggered by the cyclone will last longer too, likely making coastal erosion and flooding worse.

    Cyclone Alfred is unusual – the first cyclone in half a century to come this far south and make expected landfall.

    When unusual disasters strike, people naturally want to know what role climate change played – a process known as “climate attribution”. Unfortunately, this process takes time if you want details on a specific event.

    We can’t yet say if Alfred’s unusual path and slow speed are linked to climate change. But climate change is driving very clear trends which can load the dice for more intense cyclones arriving in subtropical regions. These include the warm waters which fuel cyclones spreading further south, and cyclones dumping more rain than they used to.

    So, let’s unpick what’s driving Cyclone Alfred’s behaviour – including the potential role of climate change.




    Read more:
    Cyclone Alfred is bearing down. Here’s how it grew so fierce – and where it’s expected to hit


    A Bureau of Meteorology update on Cyclone Alfred dated Thursday, March 6.

    Not necessarily climate linked: Alfred’s southerly path

    Many cyclones make it as far south as Brisbane – but they’re nearly all far out at sea. Weather patterns mean most cyclones heading south are diverted to the east, where remnants can hit New Zealand as large extratropical storms.

    The fact that Alfred is set to make landfall is very unusual. But we can’t yet definitively say this is due to climate change. Cyclones are steered by winds and weather patterns, and the Coral Sea’s complex weather makes cyclone paths here very hard to predict.

    Alfred’s abrupt westward shift is due to a large region of high pressure to its south, which has pushed it directly towards heavily populated areas of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales. These steering winds are not very strong, which is why Alfred is moving slowly.

    In 2014, researchers showed cyclones are reaching their maximum intensity in areas further south in the southern hemisphere and north in the northern hemisphere than they used to. In 2021, researchers also found cyclones were reaching their maximum intensity closer to coasts, moving about 30 km closer per decade.

    Climate link: Warmer seas

    Cyclones typically need water temperatures of 26.5°C or more to form.

    More than 90% of all extra heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions is stored in the seas. The oceans are the hottest on record, and records keep falling. But normal seasonal variability and shifting ocean currents are still at work too, and we can get unusually warm waters without climate change as a cause.

    What we do know is that ocean temperatures around much of Australia have been unusually warm.

    The northeastern Coral Sea, where Cyclone Alfred formed, experienced the fourth-hottest temperatures on record for February and the hottest on record for January.

    In the Coral Sea, sea surface temperatures were the fourth highest on record in February 2025 and the highest on record in January 2025. This figure shows the trend over time for February.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    We also know Australia’s southern waters are warming up too.

    The energy available to power tropical cyclones in subtropical regions has also increased in recent decades, due largely to rising ocean temperatures.

    Average sea surface temperatures in central and southern Queensland on Thursday March 6th. Point Danger is on the Gold Coast.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    Climate link: Fewer cyclones but more likely to be intense

    In the northern hemisphere, researchers have found a trend towards fewer cyclones over time. But of those which do form, a higher proportion are more intense.

    It’s not fully clear if the same trend exists in the southern hemisphere, though we are seeing fewer cyclones forming over time.

    This summer, eight tropical cyclones have formed in Australian waters. Six were classified as severe (category 3 and up). Historically, Australia has experienced a higher proportion of category 1 and 2 cyclones, which bring weaker wind speeds.

    On average, we see about 11 cyclones form and 4-5 make landfall. There has been a downward trend in the number of cyclones forming in the Australian region in recent decades.

    Fewer cyclones, but more likely to be intense: this figure shows the number of severe (Category 3 and up) and non-severe tropical cyclones (Category 1 and 2) since 1970/71.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    Climate link: Cyclones dumping more rain

    The intensity of a cyclone refers to the speed of the wind and size of the wind-affected area.

    But a cyclone’s rain field is also important. This refers to the area of heavy rain produced by storms when they’re at cyclone intensity and afterwards as they decay into tropical lows.

    The rate of rainfall brought by cyclones in Australia isn’t necessarily increasing, but more cyclones are moving slowly, such as Alfred. This means more rain per cyclone, on average.

    Rising ocean temperatures mean more water evaporates off the sea surface, meaning forming cyclones can absorb more moisture and dump more rain when it reaches land.

    Why are cyclones slowing down? This is likely because air current circulation in the tropics has weakened. This has a clear link to climate change. Wind speeds have fallen 5 to 15% in the tropics, depending on where you are in the world. It’s hard to pinpoint the change clearly in our region, because the historic record of cyclone tracks isn’t very long.

    For every degree (°C) of warming, rainfall intensity increases 7%. This is well established. But newer research is showing the rate may actually be double this or even higher, as the process of condensation releases heat which can trigger more rain.

    Clear climate link: Bigger storm surges due to sea level rise

    Sea levels are on average about 20 centimetres higher than they were before 1880.

    When a cyclone is about to make landfall, its intense winds push up a body of seawater ahead of it – the storm surge. In low lying areas, this can spill out and flood streets.

    Because climate change is causing baseline sea levels to rise, storm surges can reach further inland. Sea-level rise will also make coastal erosion more destructive.

    What should we take from this?

    We can’t say definitively that climate change is behind Cyclone Alfred’s unusual track.

    But factors such as rising sea levels, slower cyclones and warmer oceans are changing how cyclones behave and the damage they can do.

    Over time, we can expect to see cyclones arriving in regions not historically affected – and carrying more rain when they arrive.

    Liz Ritchie-Tyo receives funding from The Australian Research Council and the U.S. Office of Naval Research

    Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne as well as supported through the Australian Research Council.

    Hamish Ramsay receives funding from the Australian Climate Service.

    ref. Cyclone Alfred is slowing – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it – https://theconversation.com/cyclone-alfred-is-slowing-and-that-could-make-it-more-destructive-heres-how-climate-change-might-have-influenced-it-251594

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: How are scientists tracking Cyclone Alfred?

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sanjeev Kumar Srivastava, Associate Professor of Geospatial Analysis, University of the Sunshine Coast

    Tropical Cyclone Alfred is now expected to make landfall early on Saturday morning – later than initial estimates that suggested it would strike southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales on Friday.

    So, how do scientists track cyclones and make predictions about when and where they will hit?

    I’m a geospatial analyst who uses satellites and other remote-sensing technology for natural resources management. I study data about storms, wildfires and vegetation regrowth around the world.

    Remote-sensing satellites travel through space collecting data about Earth’s surface and atmosphere.

    When it comes to cyclones, information these satellites collect about clouds, temperatures, wind speeds and other variables is crucial. It helps scientists make accurate weather predictions – enabling communities to prepare and protect themselves.

    Geostationary satellites

    Remote sensing refers to technology that gathers information from a distance.

    Remote-sensing satellites move with the Earth. They observe the same hemisphere constantly and send real-time images back to scientists on the ground. The main ones we use in Australia are called Himawari-8 and -9, and they were launched by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

    As reported by the ABC, Himawari-9 captured images showing how Cyclone Alfred travelled down the coast of Queensland earlier this week and then headed toward Brisbane.

    Himawari satellites images show how Cyclone Alfred has moved along its path.

    Geostationary remote sensing satellites are excellent at helping us detect:

    • the centres of tropical cyclones over the ocean
    • developing thunderstorms
    • volcanic material in the atmosphere and
    • how clouds are moving.

    Himawari collects images and information from the visible and infrared spectrum. This can give us cloud temperature, which can provide more precise information about where the eye of a cyclone is (the eye tends to have a higher temperature).

    Polar-orbiting satellites

    Polar-orbiting satellites move across the Earth north to south, and pass close to the poles.

    They collect information at various intervals and send it back to Earth. Well-known polar orbiting satellites include Landsat 8-9 (run by the US Geological Survey), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Joint Polar Satellite System.

    The polar-orbiting satellites give us clear images but not very often. They are just snapshots. They are more useful for providing post-cyclone damage assessments than they are for predicting the path of cyclones.

    Valuable images, and data in the visible, infrared, and microwave range

    Both geostationary and polar orbiting satellites collect data in the visible and infrared regions. There are polar satellites collecting data in the microwave range.

    This means we can look at Earth through the cloud, get cloud temperature information and wind direction.

    In addition to these satellites, the Bureau of Meteorology have their own weather watch radar sensors on the ground. These ground-based radar are set up at various locations and can detect moisture very easily, which helps us work out how moisture is moving into and through clouds.

    Cyclone Alfred is currently shaping up to be a category two cyclone. This means once it makes landfall, it would have an average wind speed of between 89 and 117 kilometres an hour, and gusts between 125 and 164 kilometres an hour.

    Wind speed is predicted using complex algorithms.

    Why do predictions sometimes change?

    Meteorology is a very complex area of science and predictions are based on many, many different data points.

    Sometimes a cyclone’s path will deviate from initial projections, but this is very normal. It’s really hard to predict the future track of a cyclone!

    This is particularly true when cyclones form over the Coral Sea, as in the case of Alfred. There, cyclones paths are among the most unpredictable in the world.

    Sometimes unexpected factors may arise. For example, a recently arrived low pressure system in the west is currently slowing down the arrival of Cyclone Alfred.

    Despite cyclone predictions being difficult, the Bureau of Meteorology is the most reliable and up-to-date source of information on Cyclone Alfred.

    Sanjeev Kumar Srivastava has received funding in the past from the Asia Pacific Network for Global Change Research, various local councils and several cooperative research centres. He is a member of Earth Observation Australia.

    ref. How are scientists tracking Cyclone Alfred? – https://theconversation.com/how-are-scientists-tracking-cyclone-alfred-251611

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-Evening Report: How Trump is weaponising the Department of Justice, and the ‘dark’ tactic he’s using to get away with it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Harrington, Associate Professor, School of Communication, Queensland University of Technology

    It’s hard to keep track of US President Donald Trump’s many notable acts since returning to the White House. His recent pro-Russia stance on the war in Ukraine has, rightly, received a lot of attention.

    But for every big moment, there are others that fly under the radar. One such issue is the politicisation of the Department of Justice (DoJ).

    Although there is longstanding precedent that the DoJ remains politically neutral in its operations, recent events have indicated a dramatic break from that tradition.

    And, importantly, Trump has been laying the groundwork to justify this for nearly two years, using a propaganda tactic that’s been employed by authoritarian governments throughout history.

    Strategic sidelining

    The current administration has attempted to fire or sideline anyone at the DoJ who was involved with prior investigations and prosecutions of the now-president.

    This includes special counsel Jack Smith’s investigations into several aspects of Trump’s wrongdoing, which have since ended. Several lawyers have been fired, ostensibly because “the Acting Attorney-General does not trust these officials to assist in faithfully implementing the President’s agenda”.

    This action is not only vindictive, but likely designed to intimidate would-be investigators and make them think twice before further examining any wrongdoing by Trump or his associates.

    Equally noteworthy has been the department’s attempts to drop corruption charges against New York mayor Eric Adams.
    The official reason is that pursuing the charges might “interfere” with Adams’ reelection campaign.

    In reality, however, Adams has been accused of cutting a deal with the administration: he agrees to assist with Trump’s immigration crackdown in return for having the charges against him withdrawn (although not dropped entirely).

    Adams denies the existence of a quid pro quo, but he did joke about it on national television with Tom Homan, Trump’s “Border Czar”.

    So deeply problematic was all this that two US attorneys for the Southern District of New York opted to resign in protest, rather than be party to what they saw as a nakedly corrupt act.

    The whole scenario is eerily reminiscent of 1973’s “Saturday Night Massacre”, when President Richard Nixon ordered his Attorney-General Elliot Richardson to fire the special prosecutor investigating the Watergate scandal.

    Nixon eventually had his way, but not before refusals and resignations from both Richardson, and the Deputy Attorney-General William Ruckleshaus.

    But, where Nixon’s move dramatically hastened his own downfall, Trump’s actions have barely raised an eyebrow. Why?

    The propaganda play

    The answer lies in a propaganda technique known as “accusation in a mirror”, which entails accusing one’s opponents of the very wrongdoing one plans to commit.

    As one legal scholar explains, it’s:

    a rhetorical practice in which one falsely accuses one’s enemies of conducting, plotting, or desiring to commit precisely the same transgressions that one plans to commit against them.

    Accusation in a mirror has been used in the past, including in the Rwandan genocide. There, trusted voices claimed the Tutsi wanted to “exterminate” the Hutu. Tragically, it helped bring about the exact opposite circumstance.

    Similarly, in February 2022 Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the Ukrainian government of committing genocide against Russian-speaking populations in the Donbas region. This baseless accusation provided a justification for invading Ukraine, which mirrored Russia’s own indiscriminate shelling of Ukrainian civilians.

    We suggest Trump has been using this technique since he was first criminally indicted, in early 2023, on 34 felony charges related to the falsification of business records. He and his supporters have insisted the department, under President Joe Biden, was “weaponised” against him.

    Trump repeatedly claimed those charges – and subsequent indictments – were a politically motivated “witch hunt”. He reiterated these claims in his first speech to Congress.

    Many elected Republicans have also supported and amplified that narrative.

    These claims of victimhood have helped prime Trump’s base to appraise any subsequent legal scrutiny of him as purely partisan, and therefore invalid.

    In reality, the facts were straightforward. Prosecutors were sure there was enough proof to proceed with the case, including evidence Trump illegally kept classified documents at his Mar-a-Lago residence, and obstructed attempts to retrieve them.

    In a functioning legal system, nobody is “above the law”. This means even former presidents can be prosecuted if there’s enough evidence.

    Yet Trump’s accusations of a partisan DoJ completely reframed legitimate investigations into alleged political vendettas. In doing so, it effectively justified his subsequent decisions.

    A self-fulfilling prophecy

    The idea that “if they did it to me, I’m entitled to do it back” was made explicit by Trump in late 2023.

    When asked if he would use the DoJ to go after his political rivals, Trump argued he would only be levelling the playing field, stating:

    they’ve already done it, but if they want to follow through on this, yeah, it could certainly happen in reverse.

    In short, Trump’s false claim of being victimised by a politicised DoJ served as moral cover for his own politicisation of it.

    This is a textbook example of how accusation in a mirror can help manufacture the reality it pretends to condemn.

    Addressing the problem

    This tactic has long been a play by totalitarian and authoritarian leaders.

    Foundational propaganda scholars such as Hannah Arendt and Jacques Ellul highlighted how authoritarian rulers often repeat falsehoods – flipping the aggressor and victim – until the masses become desensitised, alienated and confused.

    Once enough people believe the system is already corrupt and untrustworthy, they are less likely to be shocked by an actual purge (such as firing DoJ officials).

    The implications of such tactics extend internationally, not just to the US.

    History cries out to us about the risks of this sort of public discourse. It erodes trust in institutions and liberal democratic processes, paving the road for leaders to undermine them further, corrupting the system in the name of rooting out corruption.

    Ultimately, one of the best antidotes is awareness. By exposing these tactics, we can better safeguard against disinformation, protect the rule of law and hold leaders accountable.

    Stephen Harrington receives funding from the Australian Research Council, for the Discovery Project ‘Understanding and Combatting “Dark Political Communication”‘.

    Timothy Graham receives funding from the Australian Research Council (ARC) for his Discovery Early Career Researcher Award, ‘Combatting Coordinated Inauthentic Behaviour on Social Media’. He also receives ARC funding for the Discovery Project, ‘Understanding and Combatting “Dark Political Communication”‘.

    ref. How Trump is weaponising the Department of Justice, and the ‘dark’ tactic he’s using to get away with it – https://theconversation.com/how-trump-is-weaponising-the-department-of-justice-and-the-dark-tactic-hes-using-to-get-away-with-it-250760

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI USA: Padilla Blasts OMB Deputy Director Nominee on Reckless Federal Workforce Cuts

    US Senate News:

    Source: United States Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.)

    WATCH: Padilla grills nominee for his support of cutting programs Americans rely on to pay for billionaire tax cuts

    WASHINGTON, D.C. — Today, U.S. Senator Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), a member of the Senate Budget Committee, questioned Dan Bishop, nominee for Deputy Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), on his support of OMB and the Department of Government Efficiency’s (DOGE) irresponsible mass cuts to the federal workforce. He also pressed Bishop on whether he agrees with OMB Director Russell Vought’s agenda of putting federal employees into “trauma.”

    Senator Padilla outlined the devastating impacts of these cuts — and future funding and hiring freezes — on California families.

    • PADILLA: President Trump has made clear that the OMB’s sole mission, at least as he wishes it, under his Administration, is to cut programs, the very programs that so many Americans rely on in order to pay for another massive round of tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans. In fact, during his address to Congress just last night, he doubled down on DOGE’s wildly unpopular agenda of chaos and corruption, proudly listing the ways he has and will continue to devastate communities.
    • PADILLA: Mr. Bishop, I’d like for you to speak to the Californians that I represent for a minute here. I want them to hear how you’ll justify ripping away important services and programs while raising the cost of everything — that’s the impact that we’re seeing from this Administration. My constituents deserve to know exactly who to thank for these reckless cuts. 

    The reckless DOGE cuts championed by President Trump haphazardly removed people working to contain the bird flu outbreak, thousands of seasonal National Park Service employees, and nuclear weapons security officials. Padilla pressed Bishop on his previous statements in his confirmation hearing in the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, in which he consistently claimed that President Trump’s firing of civil servants was not indiscriminate. Bishop repeatedly dodged Padilla’s questioning.

    • PADILLA: The last six weeks, that’s all the time that it’s taken for President Trump and the Office of Management and Budget to wreak havoc across critical government programs. During your confirmation hearing in the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee last week, I heard you insist multiple times that President Trump’s firing of civil servants was not indiscriminate. Is that correct?
    • BISHOP: That’s correct, and I continue to hold that view.
    • PADILLA: All right, so was it not indiscriminate, or was it intentional when President Trump fired scientists fighting the bird flu outbreak while the cost of eggs continues to soar?
    • BISHOP: We’d have to look at the details of that, Senator. I’m not aware of the specific point you’re making.
    • PADILLA: You’re a smart man. You’re a smart man. I know you’ve seen the details. Was it indiscriminate or intentional when President Trump fired military veterans operating the Veterans Crisis Line?
    • BISHOP: I’d have to look at the details of that Senator. I don’t as I said, I, I’m…
    • PADILLA: … I’m asking these questions because you seem to be applauding Elon Musk’s efforts and this DOGE strategy and chaos.
    • BISHOP: I certainly am.
    • PADILLA: … To make matters worse, you know, in so many areas of these indiscriminate firings, they’ve had to scramble to hire them back shortly after they realized their colossal error. And I could go on and on with additional examples. But let’s be clear: this is not a one-time adjustment, as Mr. Bishop has characterized it.

    Senator Padilla also referenced OMB Director Vought’s previous statements of his mission to put federal employees into “trauma.” Padilla questioned Bishop on his alignment with this goal, especially given the traumatic mass firings since Vought’s confirmation.

    • PADILLA: There’s example after example of exactly that happening, given the activity of the last six weeks, and especially since Mr. Vought was confirmed. Is that what you’re signing up for? To help facilitate that? To help further that? Putting federal employees into trauma?
    • BISHOP: You know, Senator, that comment in one of his writings that’s been taken or in one of the speeches has been taken out of context.
    • PADILLA: It’s pretty clear and direct.
    • BISHOP: No, it really, it really, it’s been used in a misleading way. I’ve seen — what he, what he means is that federal employees, that the American people need federal employees to perform. If federal employees themselves on surveys…
    • PADILLA: How do they perform when they’re in trauma? When they’ve been traumatized by their employer?

    Video of Senator Padilla’s full questioning is available here.

    Senator Padilla spoke on the Senate floor last month in strong opposition to the chaotic OMB funding freeze memo and Russell Vought’s nomination. He also protested the Budget Committee advancing Vought’s nomination to be OMB director behind closed doors, despite the Trump Administration’s unprecedented attempt to freeze federal funding. Padilla questioned Vought on disaster relief funding to help Southern California recover and rebuild after the recent fires during his nomination hearing.

    More information on today’s hearing is available here.

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-Evening Report: Cyclone Alfred is slowing down – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Liz Ritchie-Tyo, Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Monash University

    Cyclone Alfred has now been delayed, as the slow-moving system stalls in warm seas off southeast Queensland. Unfortunately, the expected slow pace of the cyclone will bring even more rain to affected communities.

    This is because it will linger for longer over the same location, dumping more rain before it moves on. Alfred’s slowing means the huge waves triggered by the cyclone will last longer too, likely making coastal erosion and flooding worse.

    Cyclone Alfred is unusual – the first cyclone in half a century to come this far south and make expected landfall.

    When unusual disasters strike, people naturally want to know what role climate change played – a process known as “climate attribution”. Unfortunately, this process takes time if you want details on a specific event.

    We can’t yet say if Alfred’s unusual path and slow speed are linked to climate change. But climate change is driving very clear trends which can load the dice for more intense cyclones arriving in subtropical regions. These include the warm waters which fuel cyclones spreading further south, and cyclones dumping more rain than they used to.

    So, let’s unpick what’s driving Cyclone Alfred’s behaviour – including the potential role of climate change.

    A Bureau of Meteorology update on Cyclone Alfred dated Thursday, March 6.

    Not necessarily climate linked: Alfred’s southerly path

    Many cyclones make it as far south as Brisbane – but they’re nearly all far out at sea. Weather patterns mean most cyclones heading south are diverted to the east, where remnants can hit New Zealand as large extratropical storms.

    The fact that Alfred is set to make landfall is very unusual. But we can’t yet definitively say this is due to climate change. Cyclones are steered by winds and weather patterns, and the Coral Sea’s complex weather makes cyclone paths here very hard to predict.

    Alfred’s abrupt westward shift is due to a large region of high pressure to its south, which has pushed it directly towards heavily populated areas of southeast Queensland and northern New South Wales. These steering winds are not very strong, which is why Alfred is moving slowly.

    In 2014, researchers showed cyclones are reaching their maximum intensity in areas further south in the southern hemisphere and north in the northern hemisphere than they used to. In 2021, researchers also found cyclones were reaching their maximum intensity closer to coasts, moving about 30 km closer per decade.

    Climate link: Warmer seas

    Cyclones typically need water temperatures of 26.5°C or more to form.

    More than 90% of all extra heat trapped by greenhouse gas emissions is stored in the seas. The oceans are the hottest on record, and records keep falling. But normal seasonal variability and shifting ocean currents are still at work too, and we can get unusually warm waters without climate change as a cause.

    What we do know is that ocean temperatures around much of Australia have been unusually warm.

    The northeastern Coral Sea, where Cyclone Alfred formed, experienced the fourth-hottest temperatures on record for February and the hottest on record for January.

    In the Coral Sea, sea surface temperatures were the fourth highest on record in February 2025 and the highest on record in January 2025. This figure shows the trend over time for February.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    We also know Australia’s southern waters are warming up too.

    The energy available to power tropical cyclones in subtropical regions has also increased in recent decades, due largely to rising ocean temperatures.

    Average sea surface temperatures in central and southern Queensland on Thursday March 6th. Point Danger is on the Gold Coast.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    Climate link: Fewer cyclones but more likely to be intense

    In the northern hemisphere, researchers have found a trend towards fewer cyclones over time. But of those which do form, a higher proportion are more intense.

    It’s not fully clear if the same trend exists in the southern hemisphere, though we are seeing fewer cyclones forming over time.

    This summer, eight tropical cyclones have formed in Australian waters. Six were classified as severe (category 3 and up). Historically, Australia has experienced a higher proportion of category 1 and 2 cyclones, which bring weaker wind speeds.

    On average, we see about 11 cyclones form and 4-5 make landfall. There has been a downward trend in the number of cyclones forming in the Australian region in recent decades.

    Fewer cyclones, but more likely to be intense: this figure shows the number of severe (Category 3 and up) and non-severe tropical cyclones (Category 1 and 2) since 1970/71.
    Bureau of Meteorology, CC BY-NC-ND

    Climate link: Cyclones dumping more rain

    The intensity of a cyclone refers to the speed of the wind and size of the wind-affected area.

    But a cyclone’s rain field is also important. This refers to the area of heavy rain produced by storms when they’re at cyclone intensity and afterwards as they decay into tropical lows.

    The rate of rainfall brought by cyclones in Australia isn’t necessarily increasing, but more cyclones are moving slowly, such as Alfred. This means more rain per cyclone, on average.

    Rising ocean temperatures mean more water evaporates off the sea surface, meaning forming cyclones can absorb more moisture and dump more rain when it reaches land.

    Why are cyclones slowing down? This is likely because air current circulation in the tropics has weakened. This has a clear link to climate change. Wind speeds have fallen 5 to 15% in the tropics, depending on where you are in the world. It’s hard to pinpoint the change clearly in our region, because the historic record of cyclone tracks isn’t very long.

    For every degree (°C) of warming, rainfall intensity increases 7%. This is well established. But newer research is showing the rate may actually be double this or even higher, as the process of condensation releases heat which can trigger more rain.

    Clear climate link: Bigger storm surges due to sea level rise

    Sea levels are on average about 20 centimetres higher than they were before 1880.

    When a cyclone is about to make landfall, its intense winds push up a body of seawater ahead of it – the storm surge. In low lying areas, this can spill out and flood streets.

    Because climate change is causing baseline sea levels to rise, storm surges can reach further inland. Sea-level rise will also make coastal erosion more destructive.

    What should we take from this?

    We can’t say definitively that climate change is behind Cyclone Alfred’s unusual track.

    But factors such as rising sea levels, slower cyclones and warmer oceans are changing how cyclones behave and the damage they can do.

    Over time, we can expect to see cyclones arriving in regions not historically affected – and carrying more rain when they arrive.

    Liz Ritchie-Tyo receives funding from The Australian Research Council and the U.S. Office of Naval Research

    Andrew Dowdy receives funding from University of Melbourne as well as supported through the Australian Research Council.

    Hamish Ramsay receives funding from the Australian Climate Service.

    ref. Cyclone Alfred is slowing down – and that could make it more destructive. Here’s how climate change might have influenced it – https://theconversation.com/cyclone-alfred-is-slowing-down-and-that-could-make-it-more-destructive-heres-how-climate-change-might-have-influenced-it-251594

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Pūtiki pedestrians get safer SH4 crossing

    Source: New Zealand Transport Agency

    Safer road crossing for residents at Pūtiki in Whanganui is now a reality.

    Work has now been completed on State Highway 4 at Pūtiki, with a new pedestrian refuge island installed and a new flush median, kerb extension and pram crossing points (where the footpath dips down to meet the road).

    NZ Transport Agency Waka Kotahi (NZTA) Project Manager Kendra Ludeke says the road is now safer to cross as there is a place for people to stop halfway to check for traffic.

    “We’ve worked closely with the Pūtiki Emergency Response Group (PERG) to finalise this design and work. One of the key recommendations from the group was to make it safer for pedestrians to cross SH4 Pūtiki Drive where the Kaumātua flats and bus stops are.

    “Safe and appropriate crossings are key elements in providing a connected network for pedestrians and we are happy to be working in collaboration with the project partners to achieve this in Pūtiki.

    “This crossing will make it easier for people to cross this at-times busy stretch of highway. It’s important people using the area to cross the road still look both ways and be careful before crossing.

    PERG member Kanui Cooper says these additions help to improve traffic management during a flood event and evacuation of the Kaumatua flats and form part of a range of initiatives driven by the local community that aim to improve safety for everyone – in particular Kaumātua and tamariki.

    “The initiative not only improves safety, but it also strengthens connectedness to the community and to Whanganui as a whole.” 

    NZTA Project Manager Kendra Ludeke (3rd from right) is joined by Kaumātua, residents and local community members, trying out the new crossing. NB: since this photo, yellow tactile indicators have also been installed.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-Evening Report: HILDA data shows income inequality is at a 20-year high

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ferdi Botha, Senior Research Fellow, Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne

    ArliftAtoz2205/Shutterstock

    The 19th annual report from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey was released today.

    The HILDA Survey has been following the same people every year since 2001, which makes it possible to examine how the lives of Australians have changed across several aspects.

    With data from 2001 to 2022, in this year’s report we looked at issues including income inequality, household chores, and the impact of natural disasters on Australian households.

    Income inequality is the highest since 2001

    Funded by the Australian government and managed by the Melbourne Institute, the survey is one of Australia’s most valuable social research tools.

    HILDA examined the lives of 14,000 Australians in 2001 and has kept coming back each year to discover what has changed over the course of their lifetimes. It now covers 17,000 Australians, due to the expansion of participants’ families.

    The survey shows that since COVID-era financial support ended, income inequality has risen substantially.

    The increase in inequality stems from growth in higher incomes as compared to middle incomes, as well as a fall in the growth of lower incomes relative to middle incomes.

    This means, relative to the median earner, Australians already earning a high income have seen the growth in their incomes rise. In contrast, Australians with low incomes have seen a decrease in the rate of growth in their incomes.

    Between 2021 and 2022, 51.2% of respondents reported their real incomes have declined. This is up from about 41% in preceding years, suggesting a decrease in people’s purchasing power.

    A technical measure called the Gini coefficient was 0.32 in 2022, the highest since we started the survey in 2001. The measure ranges from 0 to 1 and is an index that measures overall inequality, with higher scores suggesting greater income inequality.

    Older Australians are getting richer too

    Over the same period, household wealth has continued to grow.

    However, there are large and growing age differences in the growth in household wealth. For young people aged between 18 and 34, net wealth rose by 72.4% to $238,942 over the 20 years to 2022.

    But for older Australians aged 65 to 74, net household wealth jumped by 125% to about $1.26 million.

    These age disparities in household wealth are partly explained by rates of home ownership, which are much higher among older Australians.

    Home ownership is also the most important asset component in terms of total wealth. In 2022, almost 65% of households owned their home, and just over 20% of households held investment properties and holiday homes.

    As a proportion of total wealth, the family home accounts for 44.5% and investment properties account for 14.9%.

    Women are still doing most of the housework

    Australian women still undertake the majority of housework, whereas men’s share of housework has remained constant over 20 years.

    Men’s time spent on housework has not changed in 20 years.
    Diego Cervo/Shutterstock

    Women’s time spent on housework (such as cleaning, cooking, running errands) has fallen slightly from 23.8 hours per week in 2002 to 18.4 hours per week in 2022.

    Men spent 12.8 hours per week on housework, precisely the same amount they did 20 years earlier. Thus, women are still doing close to 50% more housework than men are.

    Men have increased the time they spend on caring responsibilities (such as playing with their children, helping with homework, caring for an elderly relative), from 5 hours per week in 2002 to 5.5 hours per week in 2022. The time women spend on care has risen from 10.1 hours per week to 10.7 hours per week over the same period. In 2022, women spent almost double the time on care duties than men.

    Among couples, men are generally more satisfied than women are with the current division of unpaid work. Most women feel they do more than their fair share at home. Men tend to believe they share the housework and care fairly with their partner.

    Surge in home damage due to weather-related disasters

    Respondents were asked if a weather-related disaster (such as floods, bushfires or cyclone) had damaged or destroyed their home in the past 12 months. In 2022, 4.5% reported experiencing such an event.

    This is a substantial increase from the year before, when only 1.3% of Australians reported weather-related home damage, and exceeding the previous peak of 2.7% in 2011.

    There are also regional differences, closely corresponding with the timing of specific floods or bushfires in the states and territories. In 2022, 9% of New South Wales residents and 6% of Queensland reported home damage, consistent with major floods experienced in these regions in the months prior to the survey.

    Among all Australians who in 2022 reported home damage due to a weather-related disaster, 62.5% were in NSW and 27.3% were in Queensland.

    With the current cyclone Alfred forecast to hit Queensland and northern NSW on Friday, we expect a further significant increase in reported home damage.

    Ferdi Botha is affiliated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course.

    ref. HILDA data shows income inequality is at a 20-year high – https://theconversation.com/hilda-data-shows-income-inequality-is-at-a-20-year-high-251596

    MIL OSI AnalysisEveningReport.nz

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: expert reaction to Copernicus data reporting that global sea ice cover at a record low and February 2025 was third warmest on record

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Scientists comment on Copernicus data reporting global sea ice cover is at a record low, and that February was the third warmest on record. 

    Professor Simon Josey, Professor of Oceanography at the UK’s National Oceanography Centre, said:

    “The current record low global sea ice extent revealed by the Copernicus analysis is of serious concern as it reflects major changes in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Warm ocean and atmospheric temperatures will prove critical for Antarctic sea-ice in the coming months as they may lead to an extensive failure of the ice to regrow in southern hemisphere winter. A recent study (Josey et al., 2024) has shown that this can lead to increasingly stormy conditions in the Southern Ocean and altered ocean properties with potential impacts for the wider ocean and atmospheric circulation.”

    Josey, S. A., A. J. S. Meijers, A. T. Blaker, J. P. Grist, J. Mecking and H. C. Ayres, 2024: Record-low Antarctic sea ice in 2023 increased ocean heat loss and storms, Nature, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-024-08368-y.

     

    Dr Robert Larter, Marine Geophysicist, British Antarctic Survey (BAS), said:

    “The results from C3S showing that global sea ice extent reached a new all-time minimum in February highlight the substantial effects climate change is having in polar regions and are a cause for serious concern. These results are consistent with independent analysis from the National Snow and Ice Data Center in the US. Sea ice has an important climate feedback effect because of its high “albedo”, reflecting a large proportion of incident solar radiation back into space. It also plays an important role in the ecology of the polar oceans and helps protect floating ice shelves in Antarctica, which buttress the ice sheet, by suppressing ocean swell. Furthermore, brine rejection during seasonal formation of sea ice is a key process in the formation of dense water masses that sink to the depths of the ocean and are critical to driving the global overturning thermohaline circulation.

    “The near-record low in Antarctic sea-ice extent follows on from extents in the previous two years that were the lowest in the period over which satellite records have been available, and extends the run of years with low minimum sea ice extents that started with a steep decline in 2016. Antarctic sea-ice extent has usually started to grow again before the end of February as the days get shorter in the Southern Ocean, but this year several days into March the data show no sign of significant new sea ice formation.”

    Prof Richard Allan, Professor of Climate Science, University of Reading, said:

    “February 2025 saw the lowest recorded coverage of sea ice globally as the Arctic reached a record low maximum extent of around 14 million square kilometres and sea ice at the fringes of Antarctica stayed near the record low minimum extent of around 2 million square kilometres, which has been reached every February since 2022. Every successive February, the Arctic has been losing on average 42 thousand square kilometres of sea ice, twice the area of Wales. Parts of the high Arctic have been up to 12 degrees Celsius above average while on the other hand the USA and Canada froze, showing that heat can temporarily shift from one place to another. But averaging over all regions, the global warming trend is clear with February 2025 more than 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial conditions, repeating a level of excess warmth experienced in all but 1 of the past 20 months, despite a weak cooling influence of La Niña conditions in the Pacific. The long term prognosis for Arctic sea ice is grim as the region continues to rapidly heat up and can only be saved with rapid and massive cuts to greenhouse gas emissions that will also limit the growing severity of weather extremes and long term sea level rise across the world.”

    Declared interests

    Dr Robert Larter: No conflicts.

    Professor Richard Allan: no conflicting interests

    For all other experts, no response to our request for DOIs was received.

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Australia: 3BA The Big Show, Ballarat

    Source: Australian Ministers 1

    PAUL TAYLOR [HOST]: Let’s go local, Ballarat, and I was going to speak to Lilly from Not Your Grandma’s Pantry, but unfortunately Lilly’s not answering her phone. We’ll get her on another time, though. I tell you what, her replacement though this morning has a major announcement to make, that is for sure. And the Honourable Catherine King MP, Minister for Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development and Local Government – good morning to you, Catherine.

    CATHERINE KING [MINISTER]: Good morning, and also the most important title I have and the one I am proudest of is Federal Member of Ballarat. But I’m doing- I’m here in my ministerial capacity today.

    PAUL TAYLOR: Absolutely you are. Could we add any extra duties to your portfolio, do you think?

    CATHERINE KING: [Laughs] No, I’m pretty busy, to be honest. I’ve got some terrific junior ministers who help me out a fair bit, it’s a big portfolio and really busy. But I’m at home today, which is really lovely to actually be able to be in Ballarat. And I can smell the smoke in the air, and I hope everyone’s all right out at Buninyong Surrounds. That would’ve been a pretty scary event [indistinct] …

    PAUL TAYLOR: [Talks over] Our emergency services once again did a wonderful job in protecting our communities out Mount Clear and Mount Buninyong way.

    Speaking of which, Anthony Albanese up- is he still in Queensland at the moment, with the cyclone happening?

    CATHERINE KING: Yeah, as I understand it that’s where he is. He was certainly there yesterday with the Emergency Services Minister Jenny McAllister. She’s sort of basing herself up there at the moment, and we’ve got the National Emergency Management Agency – obviously the state of Queensland takes the lead, but we’ve got all of those national assets in place who’ve had time to prepare. But yeah, it’s pretty scary watching it. It seems unbelievable to imagine how much rain they’ve had right up the top of the state, and then to see this. And I’m sure there’s many people who know I’ve got family there, I’ve got staff there as well. I know there’s people who know- have lots of family, lots of people who- known up there, so I think our thoughts are all with them at the moment.

    PAUL TAYLOR: Catherine, a lot of pundits were saying Sunday was going to be the day that Mr Albanese would head to the GG’s office. But given Cyclone Alfred, that’s not likely to happen, do you think?

    CATHERINE KING: Well, again, the election timing’s a matter for him. But look, I think that he’s pretty focused on- you know, you’ve got such a big emergency up the top of the country. I don’t think it’s- I think we’re focused on how do we help, what do we do, what do we actually need to do to make sure people are safe. And then if there is, in the event of terrible and- you know, the sort of things we think might happen, then how do we help people recover quickly. And so I think he’s pretty focused on that at the moment. The election obviously is going to have to be held before May, but I think when you’ve got something like that happening, we’re all just like, okay what do we need to do, is really the mode we’re in at the moment, and the election sort of takes a bit of a backseat. But again, that’ll be a matter for him.

    PAUL TAYLOR: Catherine King, let’s get to the announcement at hand. If anyone’s travelled the Western Freeway, in particular around Melton and Caroline Springs, those sorts of areas, it’s a very frustrating drive, especially at peak hour. What’s going on where the Western Freeway is concerned? A lot of money to be thrown at this to make it a lot safer, Catherine King.

    CATHERINE KING: Yeah, absolutely. So the Victorian Government and the Albanese Labor Government, we put in money – about 20 million – to do a joint business case that has finished. There’s still some more work to be done on that, but in order to get the ball really rolling on the highway- it just really can’t wait, it’s at capacity or it’s about to be at capacity in the next five years or so, so we’re being told. So we’re putting in $1 billion- $1.1 billion actually, to- particularly from that Melton to Caroline Springs end to try and look at how can we make the road safer, how can we ease some of that congestion, particularly in those peak hours in the morning as people are coming out of Bacchus Marsh, out of Melton, out of Rockbank and trying to get into work- that really from 6am onwards, it’s very difficult to get through there, and the state of the road is not really keeping up with the demands of the population there. And then obviously the return peak hour, that also is really significant problem. We know that once the West Gate Tunnel is done, there’ll be some alleviation of the sort of bottleneck at the end, but really at the moment the road is just not keeping up.

    So that $1.1 billion, there’s also out of that 100 million to try and really resolve the issue that we’ve got down our end around Brewery Tap Road. It’s a really dangerous intersection there. I’ve had lots of people talking to me about really that needs to be fixed. It’s an accident waiting to happen, so we want to try and get ahead of that. It’s really awful when you’re trying to run the gambit crossing there, so we’ll do the work with the Victorian state government about what the solutions are to try and resolve that. But we’re putting 100 million in there.

    And there’s also a smaller amount of money down a bit further, which is to fix some of the bridges heading towards [indistinct], but all of the remaining money, there’s already $1 billion in the highway to do a range of other things down the other end of the highway. So that’s really what we’re announcing today. I use it- at least weekly I’m down that highway. I know lots of people use it to get to and from work, to get to and from family. It’s a really important piece of infrastructure for the whole west of the state. So we’ll be pleased to be making that announcement today.

    PAUL TAYLOR: Catherine, is that money guaranteed, even though we’ve got an election looming? If the Albanese Government is ousted, does that money stay? What’s …

    CATHERINE KING: Yeah. Well, any announcements we’re making before the election is called are obviously decisions of government. So they’re budgeted decisions that will show up in the Pre-Election Financial Outlook. The only risk, of course, is if the Liberals come in and say they want to cut things. And unfortunately, we do know that they’ve got to find money for the cuts that they do want to make, and that is always a risk when elections change. But this obviously is money that we’re making as a decision of government announced as government.

    PAUL TAYLOR: Well, good to see money being thrown at the Brewery Tap Road intersection at Warrenheip. It is a worrisome intersection and needs to be fixed as soon as possible, as does the congestion further down the Freeway towards Melton and Rockbank, Caroline Springs, those sorts of areas.

    The Honourable Catherine King, MP for Ballarat and all the other titles that you hold nowadays, thank you so much for coming on The Big Show. Few and far between nowadays with you jet setting around and looking after a whole heap of other things in your portfolio, but we appreciate your time this morning, Catherine. And take care on the roads, won’t you?

    CATHERINE KING: I will do. It’s always good to be with you, and a privilege that as the Member for Ballarat, I then get to hold these bigger roles. But it’s only because I’m the Member of Ballarat that I get to hold those bigger roles, so always an incredible privilege to be that and to hold that in the community as well. So I’m very, very appreciative for the opportunity afforded to me by the people of Ballarat, really.

    PAUL TAYLOR: Thank you so much, the Honourable Catherine King MP.

    MIL OSI News

  • MIL-OSI Security: Anchorage man sentenced to over 13 years for robbing a bank on supervised release

    Source: Office of United States Attorneys

    ANCHORAGE, Alaska – An Anchorage man was sentenced yesterday to over 13 years in prison and will serve three years on supervised release for robbing a bank while on supervised release for a previous federal bank robbery conviction.

    According to court documents, on July 13, 2024, James Surrells, 54, entered a local credit union and told the teller to give him money. Surrells stated he had a gun, and when the teller paused, Surrells threated to produce the firearm. The teller gave Surrells $450, and he left the credit union.

    Later that day, law enforcement located Surrells in the back yard of a residence and he was arrested with the assistance of a crisis negotiator.

    Court documents explain that Surrells robbed the bank less than one year after being released from prison after serving a sentence for robbing a bank in 2014. During that bank robbery, Surrells indicated to a teller that he had a gun and demanded money. The teller gave him $1,210. Surrells was convicted of the prior bank robbery in 2015 and sentenced to nine years in prison and five years’ supervised release.

    Court documents further explain that Surrells was released from prison and started probation in July 2023. Four months into his supervised release, Surrells absconded and his whereabouts remained unknown until he was arrested for the 2024 robbery.

    On Oct. 21, 2024, Surrells pleaded guilty to one count of credit union robbery. Surrells received a 144-month sentence for his 2024 bank robbery and a consecutive 16-month sentence for violating his supervised release from the previous conviction, making his total sentence 160 months.

    “Mr. Surrells is a career criminal who chose to rob a bank while on supervised release for a previous bank robbery conviction and will now spend over a decade behind bars,” said U.S. Attorney Michael J. Heyman for the District of Alaska. “Perpetrators with extensive criminal histories who continue to commit crimes show a clear disregard for the law and will be held accountable. Our office will continue collaborating with law enforcement across the state to investigate and swiftly prosecute career criminals.”

    “James Surrells brazenly robbed a bank within a year of being released from prison for a previous bank robbery conviction,” said Special Agent in Charge Rebecca Day of the FBI Anchorage Field Office. “Surrells has repeatedly demonstrated his disregard for the law, and the safety and well-being of the public. FBI Anchorage’s Safe Streets Task Force will continue to collaborate with the United States Attorney’s Office to hold criminals like Surrells accountable for their actions.”

    The FBI Anchorage Field Office, with assistance from the Anchorage Police Department, investigated the case.

    Assistant U.S. Attorney Alana Weber and former Assistant U.S. Attorney Christina Sherman prosecuted the case.

    MIL Security OSI