Category: Pandemic

  • MIL-OSI: Non-Mortgage Delinquencies Reach Levels Not Seen Since 2009

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    – 1.4 million people in Canada missed a credit payment as refinancing and renewals dominate the Q1 Mortgage market –

    Equifax Canada Market Pulse Quarterly Consumer Credit Trends and Insights

    TORONTO, May 27, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Economic uncertainty continued to impact credit usage and consumer financial health across Canada during the first quarter of 2025 according to Equifax® Canada’s latest Market Pulse Consumer Credit Trends and Insights. Total consumer debt in Canada was $2.55T at the end of Q1, up four per cent year over year, but down more than $6B from the end of 2024. Average non-mortgage debt per consumer rose to $21,859 in Q1 2025, primarily driven by a strong auto loan market as buyers looked to lock in purchases before anticipated price hikes.

    “We often observe seasonal changes in credit usage during the first quarter. Generally speaking in the spring, we tend to see mortgage debt rising, however for Q1 2025 we saw mortgage debt levels fall compared to last quarter,” said Rebecca Oakes, Vice President of Advanced Analytics at Equifax Canada.” Despite a slowdown in demand for non-mortgage debt, overall balances remained fairly flat, an indication that consumer payment levels may be falling.”

    Card spending slows but balances continue to rise
    After experiencing high numbers for new credit card openings in 2023 and 2024, the first quarter of 2025 saw a 10.3 per cent decline in new card originations. Consumers that have lower credit scores accounted for an increase in new card openings, potentially indicating heightened credit reliance and financial strain in this consumer group.

    Average monthly credit card spend1 per card holder fell by $107 dollars during Q1, dropping to the lowest level since March 2022. Ontario, British Columbia, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia and Yukon saw the biggest pull back in spending, dropping between six and seven per cent compared to the prior year.

    “A drop in credit card spending when combined with increased payment amounts can imply improving financial conditions of consumers,” said Oakes. “Our data shows card payment levels, especially for younger consumers, are starting to fall, indicating this spending slowdown is likely driven more by consumers trying to be prudent rather than switching from credit to debit for financing.”

    The average credit card pay rate2 decreased to 52.9 per cent in Q1, down 32 basis points. Notably, younger consumers (under 35 years old) showed a more dramatic shift, with their average pay rate falling 392 basis points from 62.9 per cent to 58.9 per cent. This same group also exhibited the greatest increase in the level of minimum payers, rising 25 basis points year-over-year.

    Mortgage growth driven primarily by renewals and refinancing
    New mortgage originations jumped 57.7 per cent year-over-year in Q1 2025, but much of this activity stemmed from renewals and refinancing. This reflects the onset of the so-called “Great Renewal,” as a wave of pandemic-era mortgages come up for renewal.

    Renewal and refinancing activity surged, particularly in Ontario, Alberta, and B.C., with an estimated 28 per cent of mortgages switching lenders as Canadians shop around and seek better rates. Almost half of those switching (46 per cent) moved between the “Big Five” banks, reflecting intense competition among major lenders.

    “The shift in the mortgage market is clear – this is currently about existing homeowners navigating a complex refinancing environment,” added Oakes. “But even as some find relief, affordability challenges haven’t eased for everyone.”

    First-time homebuyers returned to the market, with activity up 40 per cent from Q1 2024. Affordability remained a hurdle and while average monthly payments dropped by 7.8 per cent to $2,300, the average loan size increased by 7.5 per cent year-over-year.

    Debt divide deepens as missed payments rise for some
    While some consumers showed signs of prudence in their spending choices during the first quarter, missed payments continued to rise across most credit products. In total, more than 1.4 million consumers (1 in 22) missed at least one credit payment during the quarter.

    Although mortgage holders experienced some stabilization thanks to steady interest rates, financial strain remained acute for non-mortgage consumers. Consumer level delinquency rates among non-mortgage holders rose 8.9 per cent year-over-year, compared to 6.5 per cent for mortgage holders. Younger Canadians were hit hardest, with the 18–25 age group experiencing a 15.1 per cent increase in delinquency rates.

    Ontario consumers under stress
    Ontario continued to remain a hotspot for financial stress in Canada, experiencing the most pronounced increase in delinquency rates across all credit products. Ontario’s 90+ day mortgage delinquency rate rose to 0.24 per cent, a substantial 71.5 per cent increase since Q1 2024. British Columbia followed with a notable rise of 33.3 per cent, reaching 0.18 per cent, while the rest of Canada (excluding these two provinces) showed a comparatively modest increase of 3.3 per cent, reaching an average of 0.19 per cent overall.

    Ontario also led the rise in non-mortgage delinquencies, up 24 per cent year-over-year, followed by Alberta at 15.9 per cent and Quebec at 13.9 per cent.

    Significant increases for younger consumers and auto loans
    The highest credit card 90+ day delinquency rates were observed among younger consumers under the age of 26, at 5.38 per cent, a significant 21.7 per cent increase year-over-year for this group. Overall, this rate stood at 3.76 per cent, marking a 15.8 per cent increase.

    Auto loans followed a similar trend, with the delinquency rate for younger consumers rising by 30 per cent to 1.95 per cent, compared to an overall rate of 1.08 per cent, which represented a 15.3 per cent increase.

    “We’re observing positive shifts in consumer behaviour, with reduced credit card usage and early signs of delinquency stabilization for some consumers. However, headwinds will likely persist, such as rising unemployment and rising food prices, in already strained regions,” concluded Oakes.

    Age Group Analysis – Debt & Delinquency Rates (excluding mortgages)

      Average
    Debt
    (Q1 2025)
    Average Debt Change
    Year-over-Year
    (Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024)
    Delinquency Rate ($)
    (Q1 2025)
    Delinquency Rate ($) Change
    Year-over-Year
    (Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024)
    18-25 $8,459 4.63% 2.17% 20.06%
    26-35 $17,394 1.14% 2.37% 21.04%
    36-45 $26,873 1.57% 1.91% 21.20%
    46-55 $34,371 2.94% 1.38% 17.53%
    56-65 $28,780 5.25% 1.15% 13.25%
    65+ $14,596 3.57% 1.13% 3.93%
    Canada $21,859 2.74% 1.60% 17.06%
             

    Major City Analysis – Debt & Delinquency Rates (excluding mortgages)

    City Average
    Debt
    (Q1 2025)
    Average Debt Change
    Year-over-Year
    (Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024)
    Delinquency Rate ($)
    (Q1 2025)
    Delinquency Rate ($) Change
    Year-over-Year
    (Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024)
    Calgary $23,922 1.11% 1.71% 14.25%
    Edmonton $23,547 -0.03 2.26% 18.29%
    Halifax $21,263 1.86% 1.56% 15.13%
    Montreal $16,971 2.56% 1.49% 18.52%
    Ottawa $19,501 1.16% 1.52% 22.03%
    Toronto $21,048 3.46% 2.17% 24.28%
    Vancouver $23,304 3.93% 1.28% 14.27%
    St. John’s $23,872 1.41% 1.49% 1.19%
    Fort McMurray $37,269 0.81% 2.56% 18.37%
             

    Province Analysis – Debt & Delinquency Rates (excluding mortgages)

    Province Average
    Debt
    (Q1 2025)
    Average Debt Change
    Year-over-Year
    (Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024)
    Delinquency Rate ($)
    (Q1 2025)
    Delinquency Rate ($) Change
    Year-over-Year
    (Q1 2025 vs. Q1 2024)
    Ontario $22,543 3.08% 1.73% 24.00%
    Quebec $18,985 2.28% 1.12% 13.95%
    Nova Scotia $21,296 2.62% 1.68% 5.72%
    New Brunswick $21,490 2.82% 1.77% 9.18%
    PEI $23,707 4.09% 1.19% 8.21%
    Newfoundland $24,770 4.02% 1.56% 0.48%
    Eastern Region $22,218 3.09% 1.65% 5.74%
    Alberta $24,398 1.00% 1.97% 15.93%
    Manitoba $18,171 3.68% 1.72% 2.04%
    Saskatchewan $23,194 2.82% 1.82% 6.24%
    British Columbia $22,631 3.33% 1.40% 12.63%
    Western Region $22,878 2.44% 1.69% 12.49%
    Canada $21,859 2.74% 1.60% 17.06%
             

    * Based on Equifax data for Q1 2025

    About Equifax
    At Equifax (NYSE: EFX), we believe knowledge drives progress. As a global data, analytics, and technology company, we play an essential role in the global economy by helping financial institutions, companies, employers, and government agencies make critical decisions with greater confidence. Our unique blend of differentiated data, analytics, and cloud technology drives insights to power decisions to move people forward. Headquartered in Atlanta and supported by nearly 15,000 employees worldwide, Equifax operates or has investments in 24 countries in North America, Central and South America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific region. For more information, visit Equifax.ca.

    Contact:

    Andrew Findlater
    SELECT Public Relations
    afindlater@selectpr.ca
    (647) 444-1197

    Angie Andich
    Equifax Canada Media Relations
    MediaRelationsCanada@equifax.com


    1 average spend comparisons have been adjusted for inflation
    2 pay rate = payments / last months balance

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Lisa D Cook: Opening remarks on productivity dynamics

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Good afternoon. Thank you for moderating, Peter. It is an honor to be with you today, and it is always great to be back at Stanford and at the Hoover Institution. I spent several formative years of my career here, including as a National Fellow, and always enjoy returning. And it is a privilege to share the panel with Dr. Schnabel, and Presidents Musalem and Hammack. I look forward to our discussion.1

    Before that, I would like to briefly discuss a topic I see as critical to the future path of the economy: productivity growth. Productivity growth has been surprisingly strong in recent years, and this has influenced my view of the appropriate stance of monetary policy. I will also explore two ongoing developments that are likely to influence productivity growth moving forward: changes to trade policy and the wider adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Productivity dynamics are something I have long studied closely and will continue to pay careful attention to as I consider the appropriate stance of monetary policy.

    It is helpful to start by looking back about three years to the middle of 2022. At that point, the global economy had largely reopened after pandemic closures, a historic amount of federal support had been deployed, and unemployment was falling toward a half-century low. But supply disruptions persisted, and the 12-month inflation rate reached its peak at over 7 percent. The challenge for Federal Reserve policymakers was clear: Move inflation back toward its 2 percent target while maintaining the health of the labor market. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which I joined that year, began to raise the federal funds rate from near zero, ultimately reaching just above 5 percent by mid-2023. Many forecasters predicted that a recession in 2023 was more likely than not. And yet, one did not materialize. Instead, inflation came down considerably, while unemployment remained low. How did this unusual and welcome outcome happen?

    Two notable factors were the unwinding of pandemic-era conditions that previously constrained the supply of both goods and labor in conjunction with restrictive monetary policy that contributed to a moderation in aggregate demand. Today, I would like to call attention to a third factor: a greater-than-usual increase in productivity during the pandemic recovery.

    Prior to the pandemic, from 2007 to 2019, productivity growth in the business sector averaged 1.5 percent annually. In the past five years productivity growth accelerated to 2 percent. While some of the productivity gains may reflect situations unique to the reopening of the economy, it is notable that the level of productivity, as measured by output per hour, remained above trend throughout 2023 and 2024.2 This increase in productivity was partially driven by pandemic labor shortages themselves. When it was difficult to find employees, as many Americans retired or stepped out of the labor force, many businesses innovated. For example, restaurants adopted online ordering apps and retailers accelerated the implementation of self-checkout systems.3 These changes improved efficiency and contributed to an expansion in potential gross domestic product (GDP). As a result, price pressures eased from their peak while demand remained strong.

    Improved productivity is widely beneficial to the economy. It allows workers to receive pay raises without companies needing to further increase prices and helps ensure consumers have access to the products and services they demand. Furthermore, and particularly relevant to me as a monetary policymaker, a rise in potential output lessens the need to use monetary policy to slow demand. This effect is good for the obvious reason that it allows for increasing economic growth without higher inflation. But importantly, it also lowers the risk of a policy overshoot that could cause the unemployment rate to rise.

    Now that I have reviewed the role that productivity growth played in the post-pandemic recovery, I would like to focus on two countervailing forces on productivity that I am currently studying. These are changes to trade policy and the growth of AI.

    I expect to see a drag on productivity in the near term stemming from the recent changes to trade policy and the related uncertainty, for several reasons. First, uncertainty around trade policy is likely to reduce business investment going forward. At this time, firms do not know the ultimate level and incidence of tariffs or their duration. Firms contemplating large investments might observe conditions that could hold under the paradox of thrift, wondering whether they could get a better deal if they just wait. Higher costs of imported materials and components could also cause firms to delay or scale back their investment plans. This reduction in capital formation can lead to slower technological innovation and adoption and decreased overall efficiency in production processes. Second, protectionist trade policies, while intended to support domestic industries, may inadvertently lead to a less competitive environment, if they prop up less efficient firms. And third, any supply-chain disruptions resulting from the policy changes would make production slower and less efficient. These disruptions can lead to inventory mismatches, production delays, and increased costs as firms scramble to find alternative suppliers or redesign their products to accommodate new input constraints. This set of disruptions could pose a particular challenge for monetary policymakers. A reduction in potential GDP means less slack in the economy, which, in turn, means greater inflationary pressure. According to the Taylor Principle, for which no explanation is needed at this conference, taming higher inflation requires a higher policy rate. I believe that keeping inflation expectations credibly anchored is essential. Therefore, all else equal, lower productivity could cause me to support keeping rates at a higher level for longer.

    The second ongoing economic development I see altering productivity is the rapidly expanding use of AI. I view this emerging technology as likely to have a significant positive effect on productivity growth. In fact, I see AI as poised to be at least as transformative as other general purpose technologies, such as the printing press, the steam engine, and the internet. With wider adoption of AI, we could have a surge in potential output.

    As I have discussed in several recent speeches, AI has the potential to revolutionize numerous sectors of our economy.4 We already see AI assistants boosting productivity in customer service, software development, and medical diagnosis. AI’s ability to process and analyze vast amounts of data could lead to breakthroughs in scientific research and innovation, resulting in an increased arrival rate of new ideas, further amplifying its effect on productivity.

    Of course, an AI productivity boom would come with its own set of challenges. If potential output expands too rapidly, it could leave slack in the economy and the labor market. Moreover, the productivity gains from AI may not be uniform across all sectors, job types, or tasks, leading to a transitional period as the labor market adjusts. Despite these challenges, I am optimistic about AI and its potential to drive significant productivity growth in the coming years.

    To summarize, I see an important role for productivity growth to play in assisting FOMC policymakers to achieve our dual-mandate goals. This dynamic played out, alongside other factors, in recent years when inflation eased from historic highs while the labor market remained solid. Two currently unfolding economic events are likely to influence productivity growth in the coming years-specifically, changes to trade policy and the expansion of AI. Those two developments may prove to run counter to each other, but it is too soon to predict precisely. I will be closely monitoring developments in this space. I look forward to engaging with those studying this topic including, I am sure, many in this room.

    Thank you. I look forward to the discussion.


    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Support for those in need in Nairnshire 

    Source: Scotland – Highland Council

    Efforts to devote funds to those most in need have been supported by Highland Council’s Nairnshire Area Committee.

    Yesterday (Monday 26 May) the committee agreed to funding of £2,000 from the Nairn and Auldearn Poor Fund to the Nairn and Nairnshire’s ‘People’s Pot’.

    The Nairnshire Area Committee has power to allocate these funds.

    Chair of the Nairnshire area committee, Cllr Michael Green, said: “These funds might seem like a relatively small amount of money, but sometimes that can make a big difference to someone who might be struggling at a specific time in their lives, or who may be in danger of falling into a circle of debt.

    “The Citizens’ Advice Bureau has proven to be well placed to help and identify individuals and families in need. We saw at Christmas the funds were able to ease pressures on several local families.”

    The Nairn and Auldearn Poor Fund is to be used as a form of Hardship Fund to serve the people of Nairn and Nairnshire. Following a successful trial which was approved in November 2004, the committee agreed that the Nairn Citizens Advice Bureau should administer the funds as part of the ‘Peoples Pot’, which the CAB have responsibility for.

    From November 2024 until January 2025 it supported 41 people in Nairn and Nairnshire – among them vulnerable families recognised as requiring support in the run up to Christmas.

    The total amount in the Nairn Poor Fund that is available to be allocated is £9,031.84.

    This fund is one of many administered by the Council which have been bequeathed for public benefit across the Highlands.

    The Council has determined that those funds, which are targeted to benefit specific areas, can be administered by the relevant area committee.

    At Monday’s meeting members also agreed to allocate £12,000 from the Nairn Common Good Fund to support the Nairn Highland Games.

    The Nairn Highland Games is one of the largest and most popular amateur gatherings in the North of Scotland. First held in 1865, the Games have been an annual feature on Nairn’s summer calendar for over 150 years, with interruptions only during the World Wars and the pandemic in 2021/22.

    Members were also updated on the works undertaken relating to the Nairn Common Good Fund over the last 12 months, and agreed an extension to the post of Nairn Common Good Officer for a further two-year period.

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Russia: United Kingdom: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2025 Article IV Mission

    Source: IMF – News in Russian

    May 27, 2025

    A Concluding Statement describes the preliminary findings of IMF staff at the end of an official staff visit (or ‘mission’), in most cases to a member country. Missions are undertaken as part of regular (usually annual) consultations under Article IV of the IMF’s Articles of Agreement, in the context of a request to use IMF resources (borrow from the IMF), as part of discussions of staff monitored programs, or as part of other staff monitoring of economic developments.

    The authorities have consented to the publication of this statement. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF Executive Board for discussion and decision.

    • An economic recovery is underway. Growth is projected at 1.2 percent in 2025 and will gain momentum next year, although weak productivity continues to weigh on medium-term growth prospects.
    • The authorities’ fiscal plans strike a good balance between supporting growth and safeguarding fiscal sustainability. It will be important to stay the course and deliver the planned deficit reduction over the next five years to stabilize net debt and reduce vulnerability to gilt market pressures. Further refinements of the fiscal framework could help minimize the frequency of fiscal policy changes. In the longer term, the UK will face difficult choices to align spending with available resources, given ageing-related expenditure pressures.
    • The Bank of England (BoE) should continue to ease monetary policy gradually, while remaining flexible in light of elevated uncertainty. Calibrating the monetary policy stance has become more complex, given the recent pickup in inflation, still fragile growth, and higher long-term interest rates.
    • The authorities’ Growth Mission focuses on the right areas to lift productivity. Given the breadth of the agenda, prioritizing and sequencing of structural reforms, along with clear communication, will be key to success.

    Washington, DC – May 27, 2025:

    Economic Outlook

    After a slowdown in the second half of 2024, an economic recovery is underway and is expected to gain momentum. Economic activity decelerated during 2024 H2, partly reflecting weaker export performance in the challenging global environment. In recent months, high frequency indicators have shown signs of improvement. Growth is projected at 1.2 percent in 2025 and 1.4 percent in 2026, as monetary easing, positive wealth effects, and an uptick in confidence bolster private consumption, while the boost to public spending in the October budget will also help support growth. The forecast assumes that global trade tensions lower the level of UK GDP by 0.3 percent by 2026, due to persistent uncertainty, slower activity in UK trading partners, and the direct impact of remaining US tariffs on the UK. The authorities’ structural reforms, including to planning, and the increase in infrastructure investment could increase potential growth if properly implemented. However, medium-term growth is still forecast to remain subdued relative to the pre-GFC trend, at 1.4 percent, given weak productivity.

    Risks to growth remain to the downside. Tighter-than-expected financial conditions, combined with rising precautionary saving by households, would hinder the rebound in private consumption and slow the recovery. Persistent global trade uncertainty could further weigh on UK growth, by weakening global economic activity, disrupting supply chains, and undermining private investment.

    Fiscal Policy

    The authorities’ fiscal strategy for the next five years appropriately supports growth while safeguarding fiscal sustainability. The new spending plans are credible and growth-friendly, taking account of pressures on public services and investment needs. They are expected to provide an economic boost over the medium term that outweighs the impact of higher taxation. As revenue is projected to increase, deficits are set to decline and stabilize net debt.

    It will be important to stay the course and reduce fiscal deficits as planned over the medium term. There are significant risks to the successful implementation of the fiscal strategy, from the high level of global uncertainty, volatile financial market conditions, and the challenge of containing day-to-day spending. Materialization of these risks could result in market pressures, put debt on an upward path, and make it harder to meet the fiscal rules, given limited headroom. To this end, staff recommends adhering to the current plans, and implementing additional revenue or expenditure measures as needed if shocks arise, to maintain compliance with the rules.

    In the longer term, difficult fiscal choices will likely be needed to address spending pressures and rebuild fiscal buffers. Under current policies, staff analysis suggests spending to be around 8 percent of GDP higher by 2050, mainly due to additional outlays on health and pensions from population ageing. There is limited space to finance this spending through extra borrowing, given high debt and elevated borrowing costs. Unless revenue is increased, for which there is scope, tough policy decisions on spending priorities and the role of the state in certain areas will be needed to better align the coverage of public services with available resources.

    While recent reforms of the fiscal framework enhance its credibility and effectiveness, further refinements could improve predictability and reduce pressure for frequent fiscal policy changes. The new current balance rule helps preserve space for investment, while the debt rule safeguards fiscal sustainability. The transition to a three-year rule horizon, aligned with the spending reviews, is expected to make the rules more credible, while allowing time to adjust gradually to shocks. Staff welcomes the authorities’ commitment to hold a single annual fiscal event, but notes that there is still significant pressure for frequent fiscal policy changes, given that small revisions to the economic outlook can erode the headroom within the rules, which is the subject of intense market and media scrutiny. Refinements to the fiscal framework could promote further policy stability. Options include (1) de-emphasizing point estimates of headroom in OBR assessments of rule compliance; (2) establishing a formal process so that small rule breaches do not trigger corrective fiscal action outside of the single fiscal event; or (3) assessing rules only once per year at the time of the fiscal event.

    Monetary Policy and Operations

    A gradual and flexible approach to monetary easing continues to be appropriate to support the economy and protect against inflationary risks. The pickup in inflation that began in 2024 is expected to last through the second half of this year, with a return to target later in 2026 as underlying inflationary pressures continue to recede. Although monetary policy calibration has become more difficult due to still-weak growth, the temporary rise in inflation and high long-term interest rates, staff sees the BoE’s gradual pace of easing as appropriate. Given the elevated uncertainty, the MPC is encouraged to retain flexibility to adjust the monetary stance in either direction if needed.

    The BoE should continue to strengthen its forecasting capacity and communications. Staff welcomes the implementation of the Bernanke Review and the use of scenarios and conditional guidance in the BoE’s communications. The BoE will benefit from continuing to invest in modeling capacity, data and personnel, to be able to tailor scenarios promptly as economic conditions change. In the scenarios, interest rates should be allowed to adjust to economic developments, so that the scenarios are more informative and consistent, rather than assume that interest rates follow current market expectations. Lastly, MPC members could make greater use of the information from the central forecast and the alternative scenarios to justify the MPC decision and explain their personal views.

    The BoE’s transition to a repo-based framework will mitigate balance sheet risks. QT continues to be conducted in a gradual and predictable manner. As the balance sheet normalizes, transitioning to a demand-driven approach, with reserves provided to banks mainly through repo operations, will reduce the market footprint of the BoE and limit its exposure to interest and credit risks. This will also maintain monetary control and the flexibility for new QE in the future, while providing sufficient reserves for financial stability reasons. The transition is being accompanied by a timely review of BoE instruments to consider the relative role of repo operations and asset purchases, as well as the balance between short and long-term repos.

    Financial Sector Policies

    The banking sector remains broadly resilient and macroprudential settings are appropriate, despite global financial stability risks increasing over the past year. The banking system is adequately capitalized and liquid with healthy levels of profitability, and the 2024 desk-based stress test showed that it can support households and businesses during times of severe stress. Macroprudential settings remain appropriate, as indicators of financial vulnerabilities are close to their long-term average, although global risks have risen in the past year given more volatile asset prices and credit spreads.

    Significant progress has been made assessing and reducing vulnerabilities in the non-bank sector and work should continue at the domestic and international levels. Managing risks in the sector is critical, as it accounts for over half of UK financial assets. The system-wide exploratory scenario (SWES) has improved understanding of linkages with the banking sector and contagion risks, while the BoE’s new repo facility for non-banks is in line with previous AIV recommendations. The BoE could, in the future, consider expanding access to this facility so as to include a broader range of non-banks with a large gilt market footprint, provided they are adequately supervised and regulated. Ongoing work, including with the FSB, is essential to better monitor and manage non-bank leverage, concentration, and liquidity risks. Work should also continue on closing data gaps to enhance financial system surveillance.

    Recent episodes of global bond market turbulence underscore the importance of enhancing gilt market resilience. Gilt market functioning has remained orderly. Vulnerabilities have nonetheless risen, given increased supply and the reduction in demand by more patient investors, with hedge funds and non-residents playing a greater role, and the BoE reducing its holdings as part of QT. Staff recommends close monitoring as well as regular stress testing and engagement with market participants to detect and manage future risks. In this regard, the shift of issuance toward shorter-dated securities for FY2025/26 has been well received by the market. The authorities are considering policies to enhance structural resilience, such as central clearing for gilt repo transactions, which is welcome.

    Reforms to the financial sector and its regulation should balance promoting growth with preserving continuity and financial stability. While staff supports the government’s aim of enhancing the role of financial services as a driver of growth, risks will need to be carefully managed. Regulatory reforms should balance simplification and modernization with mitigating vulnerabilities, while being well-communicated. Consolidating pension funds has the potential to reduce fees and expand access to diverse asset classes, but it will be important to guard against possible unintended side-effects, including from reduced competition. Staff supports the FPC’s recommendation that the Pensions Regulator has the remit to take financial stability considerations into account. This would strengthen its ability to oversee the evolving pensions landscape and help manage potential risks from consolidation of funds and changes in investment strategies.

    Structural Policies

    Persistently weak productivity remains the UK’s primary obstacle to lifting growth and living standards. The UK has faced a decline in trend productivity growth since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), further widening the gap with the US. Along with adverse shocks, including Brexit, the pandemic and the energy price crisis, the slowdown has left the level of UK GDP around one quarter below what the pre-GFC trend would imply. This slowdown has multiple causes, including chronic under-investment, low private R&D, limited access to finance for businesses to scale up, skill gaps, and a deterioration in health outcomes.

    While the authorities’ Growth Mission focuses on the right areas, careful prioritizing and sequencing of policies will be key to success. The agenda is ambitious and impacts many parts of the economy. Reforms are broadly aligned with past IMF recommendations, although many of them are still at the formulation and consultation stage. Delivering on the Growth Mission involves significant challenges given limited fiscal space, the breadth of the reforms, and the volatile external environment. In refining their strategy, the authorities will thus need to carefully sequence reforms, ensure internal coherence among them, and prioritize early wins to build momentum and garner support for more complex initiatives. Continued clear communication with the public and markets will also be essential.

    Stability, capital, and skills are the most important aspects of the Growth Mission. Staff recommends prioritizing the following three most binding constraints to growth. First, policy stability is critical to support business confidence in an increasingly uncertainty global environment. In this context, recent efforts to strike trade agreements with key partners, including the EU, India, and the US, demonstrate the authorities’ commitment to finding common ground and establishing a more predictable environment for UK exporters. Second, the planning reform and complementary public infrastructure projects can lift the chronically-low private investment, which has weighed on productivity. Finally, boosting people’s skills, enhancing their health, and incentivizing work will address shortages in sectors like construction and healthcare, while providing the productive workforce needed by growth industries. Reforms in these three areas are likely to deliver the largest growth benefits, while laying a strong foundation for progress on other fronts.

    Industrial policy can play a complementary role to support particular sectors, but economy-wide reforms should remain the main tool to boost competitiveness and growth. Structural reforms that apply horizontally across the whole economy, such as easing planning restrictions, are likely to have the greatest impact. These reforms are prerequisites to realize the full potential of vertical interventions at the sectoral level, such as investments by the National Wealth Fund and initiatives under the new industrial strategy. Sectoral interventions should be focused on addressing market failures, identified using an evidence-based approach, and supported by rigorous appraisal processes, while being subject to strict budgetary limits, prudent risk management, and comprehensive risk reporting.

    The mission thanks the authorities and other counterparts for open discussions, productive collaboration, and constructive policy dialogue.

    IMF Communications Department
    MEDIA RELATIONS

    PRESS OFFICER: Camila Perez

    Phone: +1 202 623-7100Email: MEDIA@IMF.org

    https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/05/27/cs-uk-aiv-2025

    MIL OSI

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: President Lai meets and hosts luncheon for delegation led by Governor Lourdes A. Leon Guerrero of Guam

    Source: Republic of China Taiwan

    Details
    2025-05-27
    President Lai meets delegation from European Parliament
    On the morning of May 27, President Lai Ching-te met with a delegation from the European Parliament. In remarks, President Lai thanked the European Parliament for continuing to pay close attention to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait and voice support for Taiwan. The president expressed hope for an even closer relationship and diversified cooperation between Taiwan and the European Union. The president said that Taiwan and the EU can work together in such areas as semiconductors, AI, and green energy to create more resilient supply chains for global democracies and contribute to global prosperity and development. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: I warmly welcome our guests to the Presidential Office. After being elected last year, MEPs Reinis Pozņaks and Beatrice Timgren are making their first visits to Taiwan, demonstrating support for Taiwan through concrete action. On behalf of the people of Taiwan, I extend my sincerest welcome and appreciation. I would also like to take this opportunity to thank the European Parliament for continuing to pay close attention to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait. Just last month, the European Parliament adopted resolutions with regard to annual reports on the implementation of the European Union’s Common Foreign and Security Policy and Common Security and Defence Policy. These resolutions reaffirmed the EU’s steadfast commitment to maintaining the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. The European Parliament also condemned China for continuing to take provocative military actions against Taiwan and emphasized that Taiwan is a key democratic partner in the Indo-Pacific region. It called on the EU and its member states to continue working closely with Taiwan to strengthen economic, trade, and investment ties. Once again, I thank the European Parliament for voicing support for Taiwan. Just as MEPs Pozņaks and Timgren are visiting Taiwan to strengthen Taiwan-EU exchanges, our Minister of Economic Affairs Kuo Jyh-huei (郭智輝) also led a delegation to Europe last year, marking the first in-person dialogue between high-ranking economic and trade officials of Taiwan and the EU. Moving ahead, we look forward to bringing Taiwan-EU ties even closer and to diversifying our cooperation. The EU is Taiwan’s largest source of foreign investment. Both sides are highly complementary in such areas as semiconductors, AI, and green energy. Through our joint efforts, we can create more resilient supply chains for global democracies and further contribute to global prosperity and development. Looking ahead, I hope that MEPs Pozņaks and Timgren will continue to make the case in the European Parliament for the signing of a Taiwan-EU economic partnership agreement. This would not only yield mutually beneficial development, but also consolidate economic security and boost international competitiveness for both sides. In closing, I am sure that you will gain a deeper understanding of Taiwan through this visit. Please feel welcome to come back as often as possible as we continue to elevate Taiwan-EU ties.  MEP Pozņaks then delivered remarks, saying that it is a great honor to be here and thanking everybody involved in arranging this trip that allows them the opportunity to better know Taiwan. He added that it is definitely not the last time they will be here, as Taiwan is a very beautiful country. MEP Pozņaks mentioned that he comes from Latvia, and despite their being on the other side of the world, they know how the Taiwanese people feel, because they also have a big neighbor who is claiming that Latvia belongs to them. Unfortunately, he said, there is already war in Europe, but he is confident that their situation is similar to Taiwan’s, adding that they have a neighbor who uses disinformation attacks. MEP Pozņaks said that we live in very challenging times, and that our choices will define the future of the world, asking whether it will be a world where the rule of law prevails or where physical power and aggression succeeds. Coming from a small country, he said he clearly understands that for them there is no other possibility; they must protect the world where the rule of law prevails. That is why now, he emphasized, it is very crucial for all democracies around the world to stick together to protect our freedoms, values, and democracy. MEP Timgren then delivered remarks, thanking President Lai for meeting with them and saying it is a big honor. Noting that they arrived here two days ago and that while she really loves Taiwan, its food, and the good weather, she stated that the reason they are here is because of the values that we share, our good relationships, and solidarity with other democratic countries in the world, which is important for them in Europe and in Sweden. MEP Timgren, referring to MEP Pozņaks’s earlier remarks, said that they face a big threat from Russia that is discernible even in the European Parliament. Actually, she pointed out, there is a war inside Europe that shows us how important it is that we support one another. She said that the Russian people thought it would be easy to take over Ukraine, but it was not, because all European countries stepped up and provided weapons and support. And that is why, MEP Timgren said, it is important that democratic countries maintain good relationships and let China and Russia see that we have good relationships, because a part of defense is solidarity. In closing, she expressed her gratitude for having the honor to be here in this beautiful country.

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    2025-05-20
    President Lai hosts state banquet for President Surangel Whipps Jr. of Republic of Palau
    On the evening of May 20, President Lai Ching-te, accompanied by Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao, hosted a state banquet at the Presidential Office in honor of President Surangel Whipps Jr. of the Republic of Palau and his wife. In remarks, President Lai said that he looks forward to working closely with President Whipps to promote tourism exchanges and sports cooperation so that Taiwan and Palau shine brightly together on the international stage. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: It is a pleasure to host this banquet tonight at the Presidential Office for President Whipps, First Lady Valerie Whipps, and the esteemed members of their delegation. Welcome to Taiwan. During my trips to Palau in 2022 and last year, President and First Lady Whipps received me with great hospitality. Wearing my island shirt, I enjoyed a very friendly reception from the people of Palau. It felt warm and friendly, just like being welcomed back home. The first time I visited Palau, President Whipps and I piloted a boat to the Milky Way lagoon. We both tried volcanic mud facial masks. We also fished together and enjoyed the breeze as we walked on the beach. Last year, on my second visit to Palau, I was honored to be invited to address the National Congress. I also observed the results of the close bilateral cooperation between our two nations. Due to its world-famous ocean scenery, Palau is sometimes referred to as “God’s aquarium.” And it is even possible to snorkel with sharks. It leaves a deep impression. Nothing compares to seeing Palau firsthand. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan and Palau launched a travel bubble that created a safe means of travel. Now, with the pandemic behind us, I hope that even more Taiwanese can tour Palau and gain a greater understanding of our diplomatic ally. In addition to tourism exchanges, I mentioned on my visit to Palau last year that I hoped Taiwan and Palau could promote sports cooperation by providing training away from home. Next month, Palau will be holding the Pacific Mini Games. And right now, Palau’s national baseball and table tennis teams are holding training sessions here in Taiwan. We will do our utmost to support Palau’s national players and we hope they stand out and achieve outstanding results in the events. I look forward to working closely with President Whipps so that Taiwan and Palau shine brightly together on the international stage. Thank you! Mesulang! President Whipps then delivered remarks, saying that it is truly an honor to be here once again one year after President Lai’s inauguration. Mentioning that this is his first state visit after being reelected to a second term, he said that it is important to be here among friends, and that we are more than friends, we are family. He thanked President Lai for the generous words and, most importantly, Taiwan’s enduring support. He remarked that our relationship continues to get stronger in each passing year. President Whipps said that President Lai’s diplomacy initiative, leadership, and vision deeply resonate with them. Diplomacy must be rooted in our shared values, he said, and an unwavering support for our allies and a commitment to a sustainable, inclusive development are all deeply appreciated by their people. President Whipps emphasized that, as we look into the future and the challenges that we face, from security to climate change, it is so important that we are united. He added that it is important for the world, and especially important for them in Palau, that they stand up for Taiwan, so that Taiwan can participate on international fora that address climate change, security, and health, because they know the world is better when Taiwan has a seat at the table. Mentioning that Palau will host the Pacific Islands Forum next year, President Whipps said that Palau remains committed to working closely with Taiwan to ensure a successful event, and that they will continue to speak up for Taiwan’s indispensable contributions as we stand together against any efforts to silence or isolate democratic partners. President Whipps said that our nations have navigated challenges and emerged stronger, bound by a partnership that is built on trust, respect, and hope for a better world. Whether it is in clean energy, education, smart medicine, or tourism, our shared journey is just beginning, he said, and we are stronger together.  Also in attendance at the banquet were Palauan Minister of State Gustav Aitaro, Minister of Public Infrastructure and Industries Charles Obichang, Minister of Human Resources, Culture, Tourism and Development Ngiraibelas Tmetuchl, Senate Floor Leader Kerai Mariur, House of Delegates Floor Leader Warren Umetaro, High Chief of Ngiwal State Elliot Udui, Governor of Peleliu State Emais Roberts, and Governor of Koror State Eyos Rudimch.

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    2025-05-20
    President Lai and President Surangel S. Whipps, Jr. of Palau hold bilateral talks and witness signing of cooperation agreements  
    On the afternoon of May 20, following a welcome ceremony with military honors for President Surangel S. Whipps, Jr. of the Republic of Palau and his wife, President Lai Ching-te, accompanied by Vice President Bi-khim Hsiao, held bilateral talks with President Whipps at the Presidential Office. The two leaders also jointly witnessed the signing of a technical cooperation agreement and an agreement on diplomatic staff training cooperation. In remarks, President Lai thanked Palau for standing firm in its backing of Taiwan’s international participation as geopolitical tensions continue to increase in the Pacific region. He added that he looks forward to the cooperative ties between Taiwan and Palau continuing to expand into even broader areas, allowing our economies and societies to further progress as we jointly advance peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. A translation of President Lai’s remarks follows: I welcome our guests to Taiwan once again. Last year on May 20, President Whipps led a delegation to attend the inauguration ceremony for myself and Vice President Hsiao. I am delighted, on the anniversary of my first year in office, to meet with old friends of Taiwan again, as President Whipps returns for this visit. Taiwan-Palau relations have grown even closer in recent years thanks to the strong support of President Whipps. In 2022, during my term as vice president, I led a delegation to Palau as a demonstration of how our nations were together boosting tourism development as we jointly faced the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. Every time I visit Palau, and every time I meet with President Whipps, I feel very deeply that Taiwan and Palau are like family. We are both maritime nations and share a common Austronesian heritage and culture. We are also staunch partners in upholding such values as freedom, democracy, and respect for human rights. Last December, when I went on my first overseas trip since taking office, one of the nations I visited was Palau. We celebrated the 30th anniversary of Palau’s independence and 25 years of diplomatic relations, underscoring our friendly ties. Taiwan and Palau enjoy close exchanges and cooperation in a range of areas, including climate change, education, agriculture and fisheries, healthcare, humanitarian assistance, sports, and culture. After this meeting, President Whipps and I will witness the signing of a technical cooperation agreement and an agreement on diplomatic staff training cooperation, demonstrating once again our diverse collaboration and strong friendship. I believe that by working together, Taiwan and Palau can contribute to each other’s development and overcome the regional and global challenges we currently face. In particular, as geopolitical tensions continue to increase in the Pacific region, Palau has wisely and courageously upheld democratic values and stood firm in its backing of Taiwan’s international participation. Palau has never stopped voicing support for Taiwan, including at the United Nations General Assembly, the World Health Organization, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties, and the UN Ocean Conference. We have been deeply moved by this support. I thank President Whipps again for his high regard and support for Taiwan. I look forward to the cooperative ties between our nations continuing to expand into even broader areas. This will allow our economies and societies to further progress as we jointly advance peace, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. President Whipps then delivered remarks, saying that it is a great honor for him to be here, standing in this historic place – a symbol of strength, resilience, and the democratic spirit of the Taiwanese people. On behalf of the government of Palau, President Whipps extended heartfelt gratitude to President Lai and the people of Taiwan for the warm welcome and gracious hospitality toward him and his delegation. President Whipps then extended sincere thanks for President Lai’s visit to Palau in December – his second visit to Palau – and for having Minister of Foreign Affairs Lin Chia-lung (林佳龍) attend his inauguration as a special envoy. He added that this also marks his third visit to Taiwan since President Lai took office, saying that this demonstrates the strength of our growing relationship. President Whipps indicated that the increased engagements and numerous entrepreneurs that President Lai has brought from Taiwan to Palau have resulted in fruitful visits, and that President Lai’s leadership represents hope, unity, and continued advancement of democracy and freedom, not only for Taiwan, but for the broader Indo-Pacific region. President Whipps went on to say that this visit to Taiwan reaffirms our deep friendship and shared values between our two nations. He emphasized that Palau and Taiwan are bound not by proximity, but by purpose, in that both are island nations and believe in human dignity, the rule of law, and the right of our people to determine their own futures. President Whipps stated that although we are celebrating 26 years of diplomatic relations, Taiwan has been a steadfast partner of Palau for decades, and that one of the MOUs they are signing further extends the relationship that began in December of 1984. From healthcare and medical missions, to education, agriculture, renewable energy, infrastructure, the private sector, tourism development, and climate resilience, he said, our cooperation has improved lives and strengthened our communities. The president also indicated that during the COVID-19 pandemic, Taiwan stood with Palau, noting that both sides began the tourism bubble, and that President Lai came to Palau to reopen the two weekly direct flights that have now been increased to four. That solidarity will never be forgotten, he said. As the world faces growing uncertainty and complex challenges from climate change to global tensions, President Whipps said, this friendship becomes even more vital. The president concluded his remarks by expressing hope that both nations continue to stand together, work together, and advocate together for peace, prosperity, and for the right of small nations to be seen, heard, and respected. After the bilateral talks, President Lai and President Whipps witnessed the signing of the technical cooperation agreement and the agreement on diplomatic staff training cooperation by Minister Lin and Palauan Minister of State Gustav Aitaro. The delegation also included Palauan Minister of Public Infrastructure and Industries Charles Obichang, Minister of Human Resources, Culture, Tourism and Development Ngiraibelas Tmetuchl, Senate Floor Leader Kerai Mariur, House of Delegates Floor Leader Warren Umetaro, High Chief of Ngiwal State Elliot Udui, Governor of Peleliu State Emais Roberts, and Governor of Koror State Eyos Rudimch.  

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    2025-05-20
    President Lai interviewed by Nippon Television and Yomiuri TV
    In a recent interview on Nippon Television’s news zero program, President Lai Ching-te responded to questions from host Mr. Sakurai Sho and Yomiuri TV Shanghai Bureau Chief Watanabe Masayo on topics including reflections on his first year in office, cross-strait relations, China’s military threats, Taiwan-United States relations, and Taiwan-Japan relations. The interview was broadcast on the evening of May 19. During the interview, President Lai stated that China intends to change the world’s rules-based international order, and that if Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted. Therefore, he said, Taiwan will strengthen its national defense, prevent war by preparing for war, and achieve the goal of peace. The president also noted that Taiwan’s purpose for developing drones is based on national security and industrial needs, and that Taiwan hopes to collaborate with Japan. He then reiterated that China’s threats are an international problem, and expressed hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war. Following is the text of the questions and the president’s responses: Q: How do you feel as you are about to round out your first year in office? President Lai: When I was young, I was determined to practice medicine and save lives. When I left medicine to go into politics, I was determined to transform Taiwan. And when I was sworn in as president on May 20 last year, I was determined to strengthen the nation. Time flies, and it has already been a year. Although the process has been very challenging, I am deeply honored to be a part of it. I am also profoundly grateful to our citizens for allowing me the opportunity to give back to our country. The future will certainly be full of more challenges, but I will do everything I can to unite the people and continue strengthening the nation. That is how I am feeling now. Q: We are now coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and over this period, we have often heard that conflict between Taiwan and the mainland is imminent. Do you personally believe that a cross-strait conflict could happen? President Lai: The international community is very much aware that China intends to replace the US and change the world’s rules-based international order, and annexing Taiwan is just the first step. So, as China’s military power grows stronger, some members of the international community are naturally on edge about whether a cross-strait conflict will break out. The international community must certainly do everything in its power to avoid a conflict in the Taiwan Strait; there is too great a cost. Besides causing direct disasters to both Taiwan and China, the impact on the global economy would be even greater, with estimated losses of US$10 trillion from war alone – that is roughly 10 percent of the global GDP. Additionally, 20 percent of global shipping passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, so if a conflict breaks out in the strait, other countries including Japan and Korea would suffer a grave impact. For Japan and Korea, a quarter of external transit passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, and a third of the various energy resources and minerals shipped back from other countries pass through said areas. If Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted, and therefore conflict in the Taiwan Strait must be avoided. Such a conflict is indeed avoidable. I am very thankful to Prime Minister of Japan Ishiba Shigeru and former Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio, as well as US President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden, and the other G7 leaders, for continuing to emphasize at international venues that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are essential components for global security and prosperity. When everyone in the global democratic community works together, stacking up enough strength to make China’s objectives unattainable or to make the cost of invading Taiwan too high for it to bear, a conflict in the strait can naturally be avoided. Q: As you said, President Lai, maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is also very important for other countries. How can war be avoided? What sort of countermeasures is Taiwan prepared to take to prevent war? President Lai: As Mr. Sakurai mentioned earlier, we are coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII. There are many lessons we can take from that war. First is that peace is priceless, and war has no winners. From the tragedies of WWII, there are lessons that humanity should learn. We must pursue peace, and not start wars blindly, as that would be a major disaster for humanity. In other words, we must be determined to safeguard peace. The second lesson is that we cannot be complacent toward authoritarian powers. If you give them an inch, they will take a mile. They will keep growing, and eventually, not only will peace be unattainable, but war will be inevitable. The third lesson is why WWII ended: It ended because different groups joined together in solidarity. Taiwan, Japan, and the Indo-Pacific region are all directly subjected to China’s threats, so we hope to be able to join together in cooperation. This is why we proposed the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. First, we will strengthen our national defense. Second, we will strengthen economic resilience. Third is standing shoulder to shoulder with the democratic community to demonstrate the strength of deterrence. Fourth is that as long as China treats Taiwan with parity and dignity, Taiwan is willing to conduct exchanges and cooperate with China, and seek peace and mutual prosperity. These four pillars can help us avoid war and achieve peace. That is to say, Taiwan hopes to achieve peace through strength, prevent war by preparing for war, keeping war from happening and pursuing the goal of peace. Q: Regarding drones, everyone knows that recently, Taiwan has been actively researching, developing, and introducing drones. Why do you need to actively research, develop, and introduce new drones at this time? President Lai: This is for two purposes. The first is to meet national security needs. The second is to meet industrial development needs. Because Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines are all part of the first island chain, and we are all democratic nations, we cannot be like an authoritarian country like China, which has an unlimited national defense budget. In this kind of situation, island nations such as Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines should leverage their own technologies to develop national defense methods that are asymmetric and utilize unmanned vehicles. In particular, from the Russo-Ukrainian War, we see that Ukraine has successfully utilized unmanned vehicles to protect itself and prevent Russia from unlimited invasion. In other words, the Russo-Ukrainian War has already proven the importance of drones. Therefore, the first purpose of developing drones is based on national security needs. Second, the world has already entered the era of smart technology. Whether generative, agentic, or physical, AI will continue to develop. In the future, cars and ships will also evolve into unmanned vehicles and unmanned boats, and there will be unmanned factories. Drones will even be able to assist with postal deliveries, or services like Uber, Uber Eats, and foodpanda, or agricultural irrigation and pesticide spraying. Therefore, in the future era of comprehensive smart technology, developing unmanned vehicles is a necessity. Taiwan, based on industrial needs, is actively planning the development of drones and unmanned vehicles. I would like to take this opportunity to express Taiwan’s hope to collaborate with Japan in the unmanned vehicle industry. Just as we do in the semiconductor industry, where Japan has raw materials, equipment, and technology, and Taiwan has wafer manufacturing, our two countries can cooperate. Japan is a technological power, and Taiwan also has significant technological strengths. If Taiwan and Japan work together, we will not only be able to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and security in the Indo-Pacific region, but it will also be very helpful for the industrial development of both countries. Q: The drones you just described probably include examples from the Russo-Ukrainian War. Taiwan and China are separated by the Taiwan Strait. Do our drones need to have cross-sea flight capabilities? President Lai: Taiwan does not intend to counterattack the mainland, and does not intend to invade any country. Taiwan’s drones are meant to protect our own nation and territory. Q: Former President Biden previously stated that US forces would assist Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack. President Trump, however, has yet to clearly state that the US would help defend Taiwan. Do you think that in such an event, the US would help defend Taiwan? Or is Taiwan now trying to persuade the US? President Lai: Former President Biden and President Trump have answered questions from reporters. Although their responses were different, strong cooperation with Taiwan under the Biden administration has continued under the Trump administration; there has been no change. During President Trump’s first term, cooperation with Taiwan was broader and deeper compared to former President Barack Obama’s terms. After former President Biden took office, cooperation with Taiwan increased compared to President Trump’s first term. Now, during President Trump’s second term, cooperation with Taiwan is even greater than under former President Biden. Taiwan-US cooperation continues to grow stronger, and has not changed just because President Trump and former President Biden gave different responses to reporters. Furthermore, the Trump administration publicly stated that in the future, the US will shift its strategic focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. The US secretary of defense even publicly stated that the primary mission of the US is to prevent China from invading Taiwan, maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, and thus maintain world peace. There is a saying in Taiwan that goes, “Help comes most to those who help themselves.” Before asking friends and allies for assistance in facing threats from China, Taiwan must first be determined and prepared to defend itself. This is Taiwan’s principle, and we are working in this direction, making all the necessary preparations to safeguard the nation. Q: I would like to ask you a question about Taiwan-Japan relations. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, you made an appeal to give Japan a great deal of assistance and care. In particular, you visited Sendai to offer condolences. Later, you also expressed condolences and concern after the earthquakes in Aomori and Kumamoto. What are your expectations for future Taiwan-Japan exchanges and development? President Lai: I come from Tainan, and my constituency is in Tainan. Tainan has very deep ties with Japan, and of course, Taiwan also has deep ties with Japan. However, among Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities, Tainan has the deepest relationship with Japan. I sincerely hope that both of you and your teams will have an opportunity to visit Tainan. I will introduce Tainan’s scenery, including architecture from the era of Japanese rule, Tainan’s cuisine, and unique aspects of Tainan society, and you can also see lifestyles and culture from the Showa era.  The Wushantou Reservoir in Tainan was completed by engineer Mr. Hatta Yoichi from Kanazawa, Japan and the team he led to Tainan after he graduated from then-Tokyo Imperial University. It has nearly a century of history and is still in use today. This reservoir, along with the 16,000-km-long Chianan Canal, transformed the 150,000-hectare Chianan Plain into Taiwan’s premier rice-growing area. It was that foundation in agriculture that enabled Taiwan to develop industry and the technology sector of today. The reservoir continues to supply water to Tainan Science Park. It is used by residents of Tainan, the agricultural sector, and industry, and even the technology sector in Xinshi Industrial Park, as well as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Because of this, the people of Tainan are deeply grateful for Mr. Hatta and very friendly toward the people of Japan. A major earthquake, the largest in 50 years, struck Tainan on February 6, 2016, resulting in significant casualties. As mayor of Tainan at the time, I was extremely grateful to then-Prime Minister Abe, who sent five Japanese officials to the disaster site in Tainan the day after the earthquake. They were very thoughtful and asked what kind of assistance we needed from the Japanese government. They offered to provide help based on what we needed. I was deeply moved, as former Prime Minister Abe showed such care, going beyond the formality of just sending supplies that we may or may not have actually needed. Instead, the officials asked what we needed and then provided assistance based on those needs, which really moved me. Similarly, when the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 or the later Kumamoto earthquakes struck, the people of Tainan, under my leadership, naturally and dutifully expressed their support. Even earlier, when central Taiwan was hit by a major earthquake in 1999, Japan was the first country to deploy a rescue team to the disaster area. On February 6, 2018, after a major earthquake in Hualien, former Prime Minister Abe appeared in a video holding up a message of encouragement he had written in calligraphy saying “Remain strong, Taiwan.” All of Taiwan was deeply moved. Over the years, Taiwan and Japan have supported each other when earthquakes struck, and have forged bonds that are family-like, not just neighborly. This is truly valuable. In the future, I hope Taiwan and Japan can be like brothers, and that the peoples of Taiwan and Japan can treat one another like family. If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem; if Japan has a problem, then Taiwan has a problem. By caring for and helping each other, we can face various challenges and difficulties, and pursue a brighter future. Q: President Lai, you just used the phrase “If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem.” In the event that China attempts to invade Taiwan by force, what kind of response measures would you hope the US military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces take? President Lai: As I just mentioned, annexing Taiwan is only China’s first step. Its ultimate objective is to change the rules-based international order. That being the case, China’s threats are an international problem. So, I would very much hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war – prevention, after all, is more important than cure.

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    2025-05-13
    President Lai interviewed by Japan’s Nikkei  
    In a recent interview with Japan’s Nikkei, President Lai Ching-te responded to questions regarding Taiwan-Japan and Taiwan-United States relations, cross-strait relations, the semiconductor industry, and the international economic and trade landscape. The interview was published by Nikkei on May 13. President Lai indicated that Nikkei, Inc. is a global news organization that has received significant recognition both domestically and internationally, and that he is deeply honored to be interviewed by Nikkei and grateful for their invitation. The president said that he would like to take this rare opportunity to thank Japan’s government, National Diet, society, and public for their longstanding support for Taiwan. Noting that current Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru and former Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio have all strongly supported Taiwan, he said that the peoples of Taiwan and Japan also have a deep mutual affection, and that through the interview, he hopes to enhance the bilateral relationship between Taiwan and Japan, deepen the affection between our peoples, and foster more future cooperation to promote prosperity and development in both countries. In response to questions raised on the free trade system and the recent tariff war, President Lai indicated that over the past few decades, the free economy headed by the Western world and led by the US has brought economic prosperity and political stability to Taiwan and Japan. At the same time, he said, we have also learned or followed many Western values. The president said he believes that Taiwan and Japan are exemplary students, but some countries are not. Therefore, he said, the biggest crisis right now is China, which exploits the free trade system to engage in plagiarism and counterfeiting, infringe on intellectual property rights, and even provide massive government subsidies that facilitate the dumping of low-priced goods worldwide, which has a major impact on many countries including Japan and Taiwan. If this kind of unfair trade is not resolved, he said, the stable societies and economic prosperity we have painstakingly built over decades, as well as some of the values we pursue, could be destroyed. Therefore, President Lai said he thinks it is worthwhile for us to observe the recent willingness of the US to address unfair trade, and if necessary, offer assistance. President Lai emphasized that the national strategic plan for Taiwanese industries is for them to be rooted in Taiwan while expanding their global presence and marketing worldwide. Therefore, he said, while the 32 percent tariff increase imposed by the US on Taiwan is indeed a major challenge, we are willing to address it seriously and find opportunities within that challenge, making Taiwan’s strategic plan for industry even more comprehensive. When asked about Taiwan’s trade arrangements, President Lai indicated that in 2010 China accounted for 83.8 percent of Taiwan’s outbound investment, but last year it accounted for only 7.5 percent. In 2020, he went on, 43.9 percent of Taiwan’s exports went to China, but that figure dropped to 31.7 percent in 2024. The president said that we have systematically transferred investments from Taiwanese enterprises to Japan, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US. Therefore, he said, last year Taiwan’s largest outbound investment was in the US, accounting for roughly 40 percent of the total. Nevertheless, only 23.4 percent of Taiwanese products were sold to the US, with 76.6 percent sold to places other than the US, he said.  The president emphasized that we don’t want to put all our eggs in one basket, and hope to establish a global presence. Under these circumstances, he said, Taiwan is very eager to cooperate with Japan. President Lai stated that at this moment, the Indo-Pacific and international community really need Japan’s leadership, especially to make the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) excel in its functions, and also requested Japan to support Taiwan’s CPTPP accession. The president said that Taiwan hopes to sign an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan to build closer ties in economic trade and promote further investment, and that we also hope to strengthen relations with the European Union, and even other regions. Currently, he said, we are proposing an initiative on global semiconductor supply chain partnerships for democracies, because the semiconductor industry is an ecosystem. The president raised the example that Japan has materials, equipment, and technology; the US has IC design and marketing; Taiwan has production and manufacturing; and the Netherlands excels in equipment, saying we therefore hope to leverage Taiwan’s advantages in production and manufacturing to connect the democratic community and establish a global non-red supply chain for semiconductors, ensuring further world prosperity and development in the future, and ensuring that free trade can continue to function without being affected by dumping, which would undermine future prosperity and development. The president stated that as we want industries to expand their global presence and market internationally while staying rooted here in Taiwan, having industries rooted in Taiwan involves promoting pay raises for employees, tax cuts, and deregulation, as well as promoting enterprise investment tax credits. He said that we have also proposed Three Major Programs for Investing in Taiwan for Taiwanese enterprises and are actively resolving issues regarding access to water, electricity, land, human resources, and professional talent so that the business community can return to Taiwan to invest, or enterprises in Taiwan can increase their investments. He went on to say that we are also actively signing bilateral investment agreements with friends and allies so that when our companies invest and expand their presence abroad, their rights and interests as investors are ensured.  President Lai mentioned that Taiwan hopes to sign an EPA with Japan, similar to the Taiwan-US Initiative on 21st-Century Trade and the Economic Prosperity Partnership Dialogue, or the Enhanced Trade Partnership arrangement with the United Kingdom, or similar agreements or memorandums of understanding with Canada and Australia that allow Taiwanese products to be marketed worldwide, concluding that those are our overall arrangements. Looking at the history of Taiwan’s industrial development, President Lai indicated, of course it began in Taiwan, and then moved west to China and south to Southeast Asia. He said that we hope to take this opportunity to strengthen cooperation with Japan to the north, across the Pacific Ocean to the east, and develop the North American market, making Taiwan’s industries even stronger. In other words, he said, while Taiwan sees the current reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US as a kind of challenge, it also views these changes positively. On the topic of pressure from China affecting Taiwan’s participation in international frameworks such as the CPTPP or its signing of an EPA with Japan, President Lai responded that the key point is what kind of attitude we should adopt in viewing China’s acts of oppression. If we act based on our belief in free trade, he said, or on the universal values we pursue – democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights – and also on the understanding that a bilateral trade agreement between Taiwan and Japan would contribute to the economic prosperity and development of both countries, or that Taiwan’s accession to the CPTPP would benefit progress and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region, then he hopes that friends and allies will strongly support us. On the Trump administration’s intentions regarding the reciprocal tariff policy and the possibility of taxing semiconductors, as well as how Taiwan plans to respond, President Lai said that since President Trump took office, he has paid close attention to interviews with both him and his staff. The president said that several of President Trump’s main intentions are: First, he wants to address the US fiscal situation. For example, President Lai said, while the US GDP is about US$29 trillion annually, its national debt stands at US$36 trillion, which is roughly 124 percent of GDP. Second, he went on, annual government spending exceeds US$6.5 trillion, but revenues are only around US$4.5 trillion, resulting in a nearly US$2 trillion deficit each year, about 7 percent of GDP. Third, he said, the US pays nearly US$1.2 trillion in interest annually, which exceeds the US$1 trillion defense budget and accounts for more than 3 percent of GDP. Fourth, President Trump still wants to implement tax cuts, aiming to reduce taxes for 85 percent of Americans, he said, noting that this would cost between US$500 billion and US$1 trillion. These points, President Lai said, illustrate his first goal: solving the fiscal problem. President Lai went on to say that second, the US feels the threat of China and believes that reindustrialization is essential; without reindustrialization, the US risks a growing gap in industrial capacity compared to China. Third, he said, in this era of global smart technology, President Trump wants to lead the nation to become a world center of AI. Fourth, he aims to ensure world peace and prevent future wars, President Lai said. In regard to what the US seeks to achieve, he said he believes these four areas form the core of the Trump administration’s intentions, and that is why President Trump has raised tariffs, demanded that trading partners purchase more American goods, and encouraged friendly and allied nations to invest in the US, all in order to achieve these goals. President Lai indicated that the 32 percent reciprocal tariff poses a critical challenge for Taiwan, and we must treat it seriously. He said that our approach is not confrontation, but negotiation to reduce tariffs, and that we have also agreed to measures such as procurement, investment, resolving non-tariff trade barriers, and addressing origin washing in order to effectively reduce the trade deficit between Taiwan and the US. Of course, he said, through this negotiation process, we also hope to turn challenges into opportunities. The president said that first, we aim to start negotiations from the proposal of zero tariffs and seek to establish a bilateral trade agreement with the US. Second, he went on, we hope to support US reindustrialization and its aim to become a world AI hub through investment, while simultaneously upgrading and transforming Taiwan’s industries, which would help further integrate Taiwan’s industries into the US economic structure, ensuring Taiwan’s long-term development.  President Lai emphasized again that Taiwan’s national industrial strategy is for industries to stay firmly rooted in Taiwan while expanding their global presence and marketing worldwide. He repeated that we have gone from moving westward across the Taiwan Strait, to shifting southbound, to working closer northward with Japan, and now the time is ripe for us to expand eastward by investing in North America. In other words, he said, while we take this challenge seriously to protect national interests and ensure that no industry is sacrificed, we also hope these negotiations will lead to deeper Taiwan-US trade relations through Taiwanese investment in the US, concluding that these are our expectations. The president stated that naturally, the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US will have an impact on Taiwanese industries, so in response, the Taiwanese government has already proposed support measures for affected industries totaling NT$93 billion. In addition, he said, we have outlined broader needs for Taiwan’s long-term development, which will be covered by a special budget proposal of NT$410 billion, noting that this has already been approved by the Executive Yuan and will be submitted to the Legislative Yuan for review. He said that this special budget proposal addresses four main areas: supporting industries, stabilizing employment, protecting people’s livelihoods, and enhancing resilience. As for tariffs on semiconductors, President Lai said, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has committed to investing in the US at the request of its customers. He said he believes that TSMC’s industry chain will follow suit, and that these are concrete actions that are unrelated to tariffs. However, he said, if the US were to invoke Section 232 and impose tariffs on semiconductors or related industries, it would discourage Taiwanese semiconductor and ICT investments in the US, and that we will make this position clear to the US going forward. President Lai indicated that among Taiwan’s exports to the US, there are two main categories: ICT products and electronic components, which together account for 65.4 percent. These are essential to the US, he said, unlike final goods such as cups, tables, or mattresses. He went on to say that what Taiwan sells to the US are the technological products required by AI designers like NVIDIA, AMD, Amazon, Google, and Apple, and that therefore, we will make sure the US understands clearly that we are not exporting end products, but the high-tech components necessary for the US to reindustrialize and become a global AI center. Furthermore, the president said, Taiwan is also willing to increase its defense budget and military procurement. He stated that Taiwan is committed to defending itself and is strongly willing to cooperate with friends and allies to ensure regional peace and stability, and that this is also something President Trump hopes to see. Asked whether TSMC’s fabs overseas could weaken Taiwan’s strategic position as a key hub for semiconductor manufacturing, and whether that could then give other countries fewer incentives to protect Taiwan, President Lai responded by saying that political leaders around the world including Japan’s Prime Minister Ishiba and former Prime Ministers Abe, Suga, and Kishida have emphasized, at the G7 and other major international fora, that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait are essential for global security and prosperity. In other words, he explained, the international community cares about Taiwan and supports peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait because Taiwan is located in the first island chain in the Indo-Pacific, directly facing China. He pointed out that if Taiwan is not protected, China’s expansionist ambitions will certainly grow, which would impact the current rules-based international order. Thus, he said, the international community willingly cares about Taiwan and supports stability in the Taiwan Strait – that is the reason, and it has no direct connection with TSMC. He noted that after all, TSMC has not made investments in that many countries, stressing that, on that point, it is clear. President Lai said that TSMC’s investments in Japan, Europe, and the US are all natural, normal economic and investment activities. He said that Taiwan is a democratic country whose society is based on the rule of law, so when Taiwanese companies need to invest around the world for business needs, the government will support those investments in principle so long as they do not harm national interests. President Lai said that after TSMC Chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家) held a press conference with President Trump to announce the investment in the US, Chairman Wei returned to Taiwan to hold a press conference with him at the Presidential Office, where the chairman explained to the Taiwanese public that TSMC’s R&D center will remain in Taiwan and that the facilities it has already committed to investing in here will not change and will not be affected. So, the president explained, to put it another way, TSMC will not be weakened by its investment in the US. He further emphasized that Taiwan has strengths in semiconductor manufacturing and is very willing to work alongside other democratic countries to promote the next stage of global prosperity and development. A question was raised about which side should be chosen between the US and China, under the current perception of a return to the Cold War, with East and West facing off as two opposing blocs. President Lai responded by saying that some experts and scholars describe the current situation as entering a new Cold War era between democratic and authoritarian camps; others assert that the war has already begun, including information warfare, economic and trade wars, and the ongoing wars in Europe – the Russo-Ukrainian War – and the Middle East, and the Israel-Hamas conflict. The president said that these are all matters experts have cautioned about, noting that he is not a historian and so will not attempt to define today’s political situation from an academic standpoint. However, he said, he believes that every country has a choice, which is to say, Taiwan, Japan, or any other nation does not necessarily have to choose between the US and China. What we are deciding, he said, is whether our country will maintain a democratic constitutional system or regress into an authoritarian regime, and this is essentially a choice of values – not merely a choice between two major powers. President Lai said that Taiwan’s situation is different from other countries because we face a direct threat from China. He pointed out that we have experienced military conflicts such as the August 23 Artillery Battle and the Battle of Guningtou – actual wars between the Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China. He said that China’s ambition to annex Taiwan has never wavered, and that today, China’s political and military intimidation, as well as internal united front infiltration, are growing increasingly intense. Therefore, he underlined, to defend democracy and sovereignty, protect our free and democratic system, and ensure the safety of our people’s lives and property, Taiwan’s choice is clear. President Lai said that China’s military exercises are not limited to the Taiwan Strait, and include the East China Sea, South China Sea, and even the Sea of Japan, as well as areas around Korea and Australia. Emphasizing that Taiwan, Japan, Australia, and the Philippines are all democratic nations, the president said that Taiwan’s choice is clear, and that he believes Japan also has no other choice. We are all democratic countries, he said, whose people have long pursued the universal values of democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights, and that is what is most important. Regarding the intensifying tensions between the US and China, the president was asked what roles Taiwan and Japan can play. President Lai responded that in his view, Japan is a powerful nation, and he sincerely hopes that Japan can take a leading role amid these changes in the international landscape. He said he believes that countries in the Indo-Pacific region are also willing to respond. He suggested several areas where we can work together: first, democracy and peace; second, innovation and prosperity; and third, justice and sustainability. President Lai stated that in the face of authoritarian threats, we should let peace be our beacon and democracy our compass as we respond to the challenges posed by authoritarian states. Second, he added, as the world enters an era characterized by the comprehensive adoption of smart technologies, Japan and Taiwan should collaborate in the field of innovation to further drive regional prosperity and development. Third, he continued, is justice and sustainability. He explained that because international society still has many issues that need to be resolved, Taiwan and Japan can cooperate for the public good, helping countries in need around the world, and cooperating to address climate change and achieve net-zero transition by 2050. Asked whether he hopes that the US will continue to be a leader in the liberal democratic system, President Lai responded by saying that although the US severed diplomatic ties with the Republic of China, for the past few decades it has assisted Taiwan in various areas such as national defense, security, and countering threats from China, based on the Taiwan Relations Act and the Six Assurances. He pointed out that Taiwan has also benefited, directly and indirectly, in terms of politics, democracy, and economic prosperity thanks to the US, and so Taiwan naturally hopes that the US remains strong and continues to lead the world. President Lai said that when the US encounters difficulties, whether financial difficulties, reindustrialization issues, or becoming a global center for AI, and hopes to receive support from its friends and allies to jointly safeguard regional peace and stability, Taiwan is willing to stand together for a common cause. If the US remains strong, he said, that helps Taiwan, the Indo-Pacific region, and the world as a whole. Noting that while the vital role of the US on the global stage has not changed, the president said that after decades of shouldering global responsibilities, it has encountered some issues. Now, it has to make adjustments, he said, stating his firm belief that it will do so swiftly, and quickly resume its leadership role in the world. Asked to comment on remarks he made during his election campaign that he would like to invite China’s President Xi Jinping for bubble tea, President Lai responded that Taiwan is a peace-loving country, and Taiwanese society is inherently kind, and therefore we hope to get along peacefully with China, living in peace and mutual prosperity. So, during his term as vice president, he said, he was expressing the goodwill of Taiwanese society. Noting that while he of course understands that China’s President Xi would have certain difficulties in accepting this, he emphasized that the goodwill of Taiwanese society has always existed. If China reflects on the past two or three decades, he said, it will see that its economy was able to develop with Taiwan as its largest foreign investor. The president explained that every year, 1 to 2 million Taiwanese were starting businesses or investing in China, creating numerous job opportunities and stabilizing Chinese society. While many Taiwanese businesses have profited, he said, Chinese society has benefited even more. He added that every time a natural disaster occurs, if China is in need, Taiwanese always offer donations. Therefore, the president said, he hopes that China can face the reality of the Republic of China’s existence and understand that the people of Taiwan hope to continue living free and democratic lives with respect for human rights. He also expressed hope that China can pay attention to the goodwill of Taiwanese society. He underlined that we have not abandoned the notion that as long as there is parity, dignity, exchange, and cooperation, the goodwill of choosing dialogue over confrontation and exchange over containment will always exist. Asked for his view on the national security reforms in response to China’s espionage activities and infiltration attempts, President Lai said that China’s united front infiltration activities in Taiwan are indeed very serious. He said that China’s ambitions to annex Taiwan rely not only on the use of political and military intimidation, but also on its long-term united front and infiltration activities in Taiwanese society. Recently, he pointed out, the Taiwan High Prosecutors Office of the Ministry of Justice prosecuted 64 spies, which is three times the number in 2021, and in addition to active-duty military personnel, many retired military personnel were also indicted. Moreover, he added, Taiwan also has the Chinese Unification Promotion Party, which has a background in organized crime, Rehabilitation Alliance Party, which was established by retired military personnel, and Republic of China Taiwan Military Government, which is also composed of retired generals. He explained that these are all China’s front organizations, and they plan one day to engage in collaboration within Taiwan, which shows the seriousness of China’s infiltration in Taiwan. Therefore, the president said, in the recent past he convened a high-level national security meeting and proposed 17 response strategies across five areas. He then enumerated the five areas: first, to address China’s threat to Taiwan’s sovereignty; second, to respond to the threat of China’s obscuring the Taiwanese people’s sense of national identity; third, to respond to the threat of China’s infiltrating and recruiting members of the ROC Armed Forces as spies; fourth, to respond to the threat of China’s infiltration of Taiwanese society through societal exchanges and united front work; and fifth, to respond to the threat of China using “integration plans” to draw Taiwan’s young people and Taiwanese businesses into its united front activities. In response to these five major threats, he said, he has proposed 17 response strategies, one of which being to restore the military trial system. He explained that if active-duty military personnel commit military crimes, they must be subject to military trials, and said that this expresses the Taiwanese government’s determination to respond to China’s united front infiltration and the subversion of Taiwan. Responding to the question of which actions Taiwan can take to guard against China’s threats to regional security, President Lai said that many people are worried that the increasingly tense situation may lead to accidental conflict and the outbreak of war. He stated his own view that Taiwan is committed to facing China’s various threats with caution. Taiwan is never the source of these problems, he emphasized, and if there is an accidental conflict and it turns into a full-scale war, it will certainly be a deliberate act by China using an accidental conflict as a pretext. He said that when China expanded its military presence in the East China Sea and South China Sea, the international community did not stop it; when China conducted exercises in the Taiwan Strait, the international community did not take strong measures to prevent this from happening. Now, he continued, China is conducting gray-zone exercises, which are aggressions against not only the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and the East China Sea, but also extending to the Sea of Japan and waters near South Korea. He said that at this moment, Taiwan, the Philippines, Japan, and even the US should face these developments candidly and seriously, and we must exhibit unity and cooperation to prevent China’s gray-zone aggression from continuing to expand and prevent China from shifting from a military exercise to combat. If no action is taken now, the president said, the situation may become increasingly serious. Asked about the view of some US analysts who point out that China will have the ability to invade Taiwan around 2027, President Lai responded that Taiwan, as the country on the receiving end of threats and aggression, must plan for the worst and make the best preparations. He recalled a famous saying from the armed forces: “Do not count on the enemy not showing up; count on being ready should it strike.” This is why, he said, he proposed the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. First, he said, we must strengthen our national defense. Second, he added, we must strengthen economic resilience, adding that not only must our economy remain strong, but it must also be resilient, and that we cannot put all our eggs in the same basket, in China, as we have done in the past. Third, he continued, we must stand shoulder to shoulder with friends and allies such as Japan and the US, as well as the democratic community, and we must demonstrate the strength of deterrence to prevent China from making the wrong judgment. Fourth, he emphasized, as long as China treats Taiwan with parity and dignity, Taiwan is willing to conduct exchanges and cooperate with China and seek cross-strait peace and mutual prosperity through exchanges and cooperation. Regarding intensifying US-China confrontation, the president was asked in which areas he thinks Taiwan and Japan should strengthen cooperation; with Japan’s Ishiba administration also being a minority government, the president was asked for his expectations for the Ishiba administration. President Lai said that in the face of rapid and tremendous changes in the political situation, every government faces considerable challenges, especially for minority governments, but the Japanese government led by Prime Minister Ishiba has quite adequately responded with various strategies. Furthermore, he said, Japan is different from Taiwan, explaining that although Japan’s ruling party lacks a majority, political parties in Japan engage in competition domestically while exhibiting unity externally. He said that Taiwan’s situation is more challenging, because the ruling and opposition parties hold different views on the direction of the country, due to differences in national identity. The president expressed his hope that in the future Taiwan and Japan will enjoy even more comprehensive cooperation. He stated that he has always believed that deep historical bonds connect Taiwan and Japan. Over the past several decades, he said, when encountering natural disasters and tragedies, our two nations have assisted each other with mutual care and support. He said that the affection between the people of Taiwan and Japan is like that of a family. Pointing out that both countries face the threat of authoritarianism, he said that we share a mission to safeguard universal values such as democracy, freedom, and respect for human rights. The president said that our two countries should be more open to cooperation in various areas to maintain regional peace and stability as well as to strengthen cooperation in economic and industrial development, such as for semiconductor industry chains and everyday applications of AI, including robots and drones, adding that we can also cooperate on climate change response, such as in hydrogen energy and other strategies. He said our two countries should also continue to strengthen people-to-people exchanges. He then took the opportunity to once again invite our good friends from Japan to visit Taiwan for tourism and learn more about Taiwan, saying that the Taiwanese people wholeheartedly welcome our Japanese friends.  

    Details
    2025-05-20
    President Lai interviewed by Nippon Television and Yomiuri TV
    In a recent interview on Nippon Television’s news zero program, President Lai Ching-te responded to questions from host Mr. Sakurai Sho and Yomiuri TV Shanghai Bureau Chief Watanabe Masayo on topics including reflections on his first year in office, cross-strait relations, China’s military threats, Taiwan-United States relations, and Taiwan-Japan relations. The interview was broadcast on the evening of May 19. During the interview, President Lai stated that China intends to change the world’s rules-based international order, and that if Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted. Therefore, he said, Taiwan will strengthen its national defense, prevent war by preparing for war, and achieve the goal of peace. The president also noted that Taiwan’s purpose for developing drones is based on national security and industrial needs, and that Taiwan hopes to collaborate with Japan. He then reiterated that China’s threats are an international problem, and expressed hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war. Following is the text of the questions and the president’s responses: Q: How do you feel as you are about to round out your first year in office? President Lai: When I was young, I was determined to practice medicine and save lives. When I left medicine to go into politics, I was determined to transform Taiwan. And when I was sworn in as president on May 20 last year, I was determined to strengthen the nation. Time flies, and it has already been a year. Although the process has been very challenging, I am deeply honored to be a part of it. I am also profoundly grateful to our citizens for allowing me the opportunity to give back to our country. The future will certainly be full of more challenges, but I will do everything I can to unite the people and continue strengthening the nation. That is how I am feeling now. Q: We are now coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II, and over this period, we have often heard that conflict between Taiwan and the mainland is imminent. Do you personally believe that a cross-strait conflict could happen? President Lai: The international community is very much aware that China intends to replace the US and change the world’s rules-based international order, and annexing Taiwan is just the first step. So, as China’s military power grows stronger, some members of the international community are naturally on edge about whether a cross-strait conflict will break out. The international community must certainly do everything in its power to avoid a conflict in the Taiwan Strait; there is too great a cost. Besides causing direct disasters to both Taiwan and China, the impact on the global economy would be even greater, with estimated losses of US$10 trillion from war alone – that is roughly 10 percent of the global GDP. Additionally, 20 percent of global shipping passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, so if a conflict breaks out in the strait, other countries including Japan and Korea would suffer a grave impact. For Japan and Korea, a quarter of external transit passes through the Taiwan Strait and surrounding waters, and a third of the various energy resources and minerals shipped back from other countries pass through said areas. If Taiwan were invaded, global supply chains would be disrupted, and therefore conflict in the Taiwan Strait must be avoided. Such a conflict is indeed avoidable. I am very thankful to Prime Minister of Japan Ishiba Shigeru and former Prime Ministers Abe Shinzo, Suga Yoshihide, and Kishida Fumio, as well as US President Donald Trump and former President Joe Biden, and the other G7 leaders, for continuing to emphasize at international venues that peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait are essential components for global security and prosperity. When everyone in the global democratic community works together, stacking up enough strength to make China’s objectives unattainable or to make the cost of invading Taiwan too high for it to bear, a conflict in the strait can naturally be avoided. Q: As you said, President Lai, maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is also very important for other countries. How can war be avoided? What sort of countermeasures is Taiwan prepared to take to prevent war? President Lai: As Mr. Sakurai mentioned earlier, we are coming up on the 80th anniversary of the end of WWII. There are many lessons we can take from that war. First is that peace is priceless, and war has no winners. From the tragedies of WWII, there are lessons that humanity should learn. We must pursue peace, and not start wars blindly, as that would be a major disaster for humanity. In other words, we must be determined to safeguard peace. The second lesson is that we cannot be complacent toward authoritarian powers. If you give them an inch, they will take a mile. They will keep growing, and eventually, not only will peace be unattainable, but war will be inevitable. The third lesson is why WWII ended: It ended because different groups joined together in solidarity. Taiwan, Japan, and the Indo-Pacific region are all directly subjected to China’s threats, so we hope to be able to join together in cooperation. This is why we proposed the Four Pillars of Peace action plan. First, we will strengthen our national defense. Second, we will strengthen economic resilience. Third is standing shoulder to shoulder with the democratic community to demonstrate the strength of deterrence. Fourth is that as long as China treats Taiwan with parity and dignity, Taiwan is willing to conduct exchanges and cooperate with China, and seek peace and mutual prosperity. These four pillars can help us avoid war and achieve peace. That is to say, Taiwan hopes to achieve peace through strength, prevent war by preparing for war, keeping war from happening and pursuing the goal of peace. Q: Regarding drones, everyone knows that recently, Taiwan has been actively researching, developing, and introducing drones. Why do you need to actively research, develop, and introduce new drones at this time? President Lai: This is for two purposes. The first is to meet national security needs. The second is to meet industrial development needs. Because Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines are all part of the first island chain, and we are all democratic nations, we cannot be like an authoritarian country like China, which has an unlimited national defense budget. In this kind of situation, island nations such as Taiwan, Japan, and the Philippines should leverage their own technologies to develop national defense methods that are asymmetric and utilize unmanned vehicles. In particular, from the Russo-Ukrainian War, we see that Ukraine has successfully utilized unmanned vehicles to protect itself and prevent Russia from unlimited invasion. In other words, the Russo-Ukrainian War has already proven the importance of drones. Therefore, the first purpose of developing drones is based on national security needs. Second, the world has already entered the era of smart technology. Whether generative, agentic, or physical, AI will continue to develop. In the future, cars and ships will also evolve into unmanned vehicles and unmanned boats, and there will be unmanned factories. Drones will even be able to assist with postal deliveries, or services like Uber, Uber Eats, and foodpanda, or agricultural irrigation and pesticide spraying. Therefore, in the future era of comprehensive smart technology, developing unmanned vehicles is a necessity. Taiwan, based on industrial needs, is actively planning the development of drones and unmanned vehicles. I would like to take this opportunity to express Taiwan’s hope to collaborate with Japan in the unmanned vehicle industry. Just as we do in the semiconductor industry, where Japan has raw materials, equipment, and technology, and Taiwan has wafer manufacturing, our two countries can cooperate. Japan is a technological power, and Taiwan also has significant technological strengths. If Taiwan and Japan work together, we will not only be able to safeguard peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and security in the Indo-Pacific region, but it will also be very helpful for the industrial development of both countries. Q: The drones you just described probably include examples from the Russo-Ukrainian War. Taiwan and China are separated by the Taiwan Strait. Do our drones need to have cross-sea flight capabilities? President Lai: Taiwan does not intend to counterattack the mainland, and does not intend to invade any country. Taiwan’s drones are meant to protect our own nation and territory. Q: Former President Biden previously stated that US forces would assist Taiwan’s defense in the event of an attack. President Trump, however, has yet to clearly state that the US would help defend Taiwan. Do you think that in such an event, the US would help defend Taiwan? Or is Taiwan now trying to persuade the US? President Lai: Former President Biden and President Trump have answered questions from reporters. Although their responses were different, strong cooperation with Taiwan under the Biden administration has continued under the Trump administration; there has been no change. During President Trump’s first term, cooperation with Taiwan was broader and deeper compared to former President Barack Obama’s terms. After former President Biden took office, cooperation with Taiwan increased compared to President Trump’s first term. Now, during President Trump’s second term, cooperation with Taiwan is even greater than under former President Biden. Taiwan-US cooperation continues to grow stronger, and has not changed just because President Trump and former President Biden gave different responses to reporters. Furthermore, the Trump administration publicly stated that in the future, the US will shift its strategic focus from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. The US secretary of defense even publicly stated that the primary mission of the US is to prevent China from invading Taiwan, maintain stability in the Indo-Pacific, and thus maintain world peace. There is a saying in Taiwan that goes, “Help comes most to those who help themselves.” Before asking friends and allies for assistance in facing threats from China, Taiwan must first be determined and prepared to defend itself. This is Taiwan’s principle, and we are working in this direction, making all the necessary preparations to safeguard the nation. Q: I would like to ask you a question about Taiwan-Japan relations. After the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011, you made an appeal to give Japan a great deal of assistance and care. In particular, you visited Sendai to offer condolences. Later, you also expressed condolences and concern after the earthquakes in Aomori and Kumamoto. What are your expectations for future Taiwan-Japan exchanges and development? President Lai: I come from Tainan, and my constituency is in Tainan. Tainan has very deep ties with Japan, and of course, Taiwan also has deep ties with Japan. However, among Taiwan’s 22 counties and cities, Tainan has the deepest relationship with Japan. I sincerely hope that both of you and your teams will have an opportunity to visit Tainan. I will introduce Tainan’s scenery, including architecture from the era of Japanese rule, Tainan’s cuisine, and unique aspects of Tainan society, and you can also see lifestyles and culture from the Showa era.  The Wushantou Reservoir in Tainan was completed by engineer Mr. Hatta Yoichi from Kanazawa, Japan and the team he led to Tainan after he graduated from then-Tokyo Imperial University. It has nearly a century of history and is still in use today. This reservoir, along with the 16,000-km-long Chianan Canal, transformed the 150,000-hectare Chianan Plain into Taiwan’s premier rice-growing area. It was that foundation in agriculture that enabled Taiwan to develop industry and the technology sector of today. The reservoir continues to supply water to Tainan Science Park. It is used by residents of Tainan, the agricultural sector, and industry, and even the technology sector in Xinshi Industrial Park, as well as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Because of this, the people of Tainan are deeply grateful for Mr. Hatta and very friendly toward the people of Japan. A major earthquake, the largest in 50 years, struck Tainan on February 6, 2016, resulting in significant casualties. As mayor of Tainan at the time, I was extremely grateful to then-Prime Minister Abe, who sent five Japanese officials to the disaster site in Tainan the day after the earthquake. They were very thoughtful and asked what kind of assistance we needed from the Japanese government. They offered to provide help based on what we needed. I was deeply moved, as former Prime Minister Abe showed such care, going beyond the formality of just sending supplies that we may or may not have actually needed. Instead, the officials asked what we needed and then provided assistance based on those needs, which really moved me. Similarly, when the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011 or the later Kumamoto earthquakes struck, the people of Tainan, under my leadership, naturally and dutifully expressed their support. Even earlier, when central Taiwan was hit by a major earthquake in 1999, Japan was the first country to deploy a rescue team to the disaster area. On February 6, 2018, after a major earthquake in Hualien, former Prime Minister Abe appeared in a video holding up a message of encouragement he had written in calligraphy saying “Remain strong, Taiwan.” All of Taiwan was deeply moved. Over the years, Taiwan and Japan have supported each other when earthquakes struck, and have forged bonds that are family-like, not just neighborly. This is truly valuable. In the future, I hope Taiwan and Japan can be like brothers, and that the peoples of Taiwan and Japan can treat one another like family. If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem; if Japan has a problem, then Taiwan has a problem. By caring for and helping each other, we can face various challenges and difficulties, and pursue a brighter future. Q: President Lai, you just used the phrase “If Taiwan has a problem, then Japan has a problem.” In the event that China attempts to invade Taiwan by force, what kind of response measures would you hope the US military and Japan’s Self-Defense Forces take? President Lai: As I just mentioned, annexing Taiwan is only China’s first step. Its ultimate objective is to change the rules-based international order. That being the case, China’s threats are an international problem. So, I would very much hope to work together with the US, Japan, and others in the global democratic community to prevent China from starting a war – prevention, after all, is more important than cure.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Speech by CE at Asia Summit on Global Health (English only) (with photos/video)

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

         Following is the speech by the Chief Executive, Mr John Lee, at the Asia Summit on Global Health today (May 26):
     
    Honourable Vice-minister Cao Xuetao (Vice-minister of the National Health Commission), Deputy Director Yin Zonghua (Deputy Director of the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR)), Deputy Commissioner Li Yongsheng (Deputy Commissioner of the Office of the Commissioner of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China in the HKSAR), Dr Peter Lam (Chairman of the Hong Kong Trade Development Council), distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,
     
         Good morning. I am delighted to join you all for this year’s Asia Summit on Global Health. Delighted to welcome our friends from around the world to Hong Kong.
     
         Global health starts with unity.  This spirit of collaboration is as important today as it was in 2021, when this Summit was first launched. It was launched under the cloud of the global pandemic. We don’t need any reminding of the dark days of the COVID-19 outbreak. But it is worth recalling that those difficult times also sparked a remarkable period of healthcare innovation and co-operation. These positive trends continue, here today, at this Summit.
     
         I thank all who are attending the Summit – over 2 800 experts from some 40 countries and regions. You are medical professionals, policymakers, academics, heads of pharmaceutical and health tech enterprises, and experts in many other fields.
     
         You are here to explore innovative solutions to chronic diseases, healthcare inequities and the challenges of an ageing population. To share knowledge and explore the promising opportunities in medicine, and medical technology, across Asia and beyond.
     
         These topics, and more, will be under the microscope, during the next two days of high-level panel discussions, networking and deal-making sessions. From a global perspective, the Director-General of the World Health Organization will share with us his views by video in a few minutes.
     
         Under the theme of “Fostering Global Collaboration for a Shared Future”, this Summit reaffirms Hong Kong’s pivotal role as a leading health innovation hub in the region.
     
         Under the “one country, two systems” principle, Hong Kong enjoys unique connectivity with both Mainland China and the world. As the world’s freest economy and one of the top three international financial centres, we offer an efficient, open and fair business environment with robust intellectual property protection. We maintain free flows of information, capital, goods and talent. We are also emerging as a leading hub for scientific innovation, technological advancement and world-class education.
     
         Hong Kong is the only city in Asia with as many as five universities ranked in the top 100 globally. We are home to two of the world’s top 40 medical schools, and eight State Key Laboratories in life and health disciplines. This, and more, provides fertile ground for world-class scientific research and medical technology innovation.
     
         Under “one country, two systems”, we also enjoy strong support of national strategies, coupled with ever-closer connectivity with our country, China.
     
         The connectivity is fully evident at the Hetao Shenzhen-Hong Kong Science and Technology Innovation Co-operation Zone. Straddling our boundary with the neighbouring city of Shenzhen, the Co-operation Zone comprises the Hong Kong Park and the Shenzhen Park. It pools together the technological strengths of our two cities.
     
         Our respective, and collective, strengths are recognised internationally, I’m pleased to add. In its annual Global Innovation Index, the World Intellectual Property Organization has ranked the Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Guangzhou science and technology cluster second, globally, for five consecutive years.
     
         It helps that we are core cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, or the GBA, a cluster city development that brings together 11 cities in southern China. It has a population of some 87 million, and a GDP that closely rivals the world’s 10th-largest economy.
     
         Riding on this synergy with other GBA cities, the Hong Kong Park of the Co-operation Zone is in good shape for its operational phase later this year. We will provide over US$250 million to support the InnoHK research clusters to set up there, and another US$25 million to assist start-ups engaging in life and health technology.
     
         The InnoHK clusters, let me add, now count 29 research centres and laboratories focusing on health tech, artificial intelligence and robotics, each formed by partnering a Hong Kong institution with a Mainland or international institution.
     
         In other news from the Co-operation Zone, the Greater Bay Area International Clinical Trial Institute is now up and running in the Hong Kong Park.
     
         And, just last week, the Institute started a collaboration initiative on clinical trial with our two medical schools. In more than 70 clinical trial projects expected to be launched in the coming year, the Institute will help to co-ordinate in cross-boundary clinical trials, connection with GBA institutions, and more. Well, that’s what I call a healthy outcome!
     
         Another key healthcare collaboration is on the registration for drugs and medical devices. Under a special measure of the National Medical Products Administration, several healthcare institutions in Mainland cities of the GBA may now use drugs and medical devices used in Hong Kong, but not yet registered on the Mainland. This accelerated pathway allows for the access of innovative medicines and devices into the Mainland market.
     
         We are now working with Shenzhen to establish a Real-World Study and Application Centre, by year’s end, to promote co-operation on the sharing of health and medical data. It would speed up the approval and registration of new drugs in both places.
     
         Hong Kong is committed to establishing its own internationally recognised authority for the registration of drugs and medical devices. We have implemented the “1+” mechanism for the registration of new drugs, vaccines and advanced therapy products. The mechanism allows for a drug to be registered in Hong Kong, once it has been registered with a reference drug regulatory authority, and supported by local clinical data.
     
         These and other efforts will drive the development of Hong Kong into an international health and medical innovation hub. More importantly, they will expedite patients’ access to advanced diagnostic and treatment services.
     
         To boost Hong Kong’s research prowess, we have launched a subsidy to support local universities in setting up health technology research institutes. With an allocation of some US$770 million, the programme will foster academic collaboration in life and health sciences research.
     
         Beyond funding research, let me add, we are also investing into developing our research talent. As a result, publicly funded PhD places increased by about one-third to 7 200 over the past two academic years. Places under the Hong Kong PhD Fellowship Scheme also saw a one-third rise.
     
         We endeavour to ensure the timely, and efficient, commercial returns from Hong Kong’s excellent research outcomes, including healthcare innovations. For this, we have set aside over US$1.2 billion for the Research, Academic and Industry Sectors One-plus Scheme, and another US$1.2 billion for the New Industrialisation Acceleration Scheme. These Schemes support enterprises to adopt new innovations, and set up smart productions facilities, respectively.
     
         Ladies and gentlemen, in fighting a virus, isolation is vital – quarantining the infected to protect the healthy. But in tackling healthcare, trade, and other societal issues, isolation is not the answer. While walls may stem the spread of a disease, they stifle free and open exchange, which is the lifeblood of prosperity.

         With unilateralism and protectionism sweeping the world like a contagion, we should remember a fundamental truth: Trade thrives on openness. Much as how a human body can only stay healthy when its interconnected systems work in harmony, our global economy can only prosper with an ecosystem of trust, collaboration and multilateralism. For in trade, as in health, resilience lies not in isolation, but in collaboration. And Hong Kong is here to build meaningful partnerships and innovative co-operations, with all of you.
     
         My thanks to the Hong Kong Trade Development Council for jointly organising this Summit with the HKSAR Government. I encourage all of you to visit the Hong Kong International Medical and Healthcare Fair, another key event of this International Healthcare Week, over the next three days.
     
         As the saying goes, “Laughter is the best medicine”. Therefore, while this Summit focuses on the serious topic of global health, I would like to see all of you rejoice here and participate in a happy mood. Find time, also, to relax and enjoy the colourful cultural experiences here in our world city.
     
         I wish you all a very successful Summit, a delightful stay in Hong Kong and, of course, the best of health!
     
         Thank you.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Pharmac seeks feedback on updates to COVID-19 antiviral medicines

    Source: PHARMAC

    Media release Medicines COVID-19

    Pharmac has today opened consultation on a proposal to simplify the criteria for people accessing COVID-19 antiviral medicines, along with the process for funding and supply of these medicines.

    Pharmac currently funds two COVID-19 antivirals for people who meet the eligibility criteria. Antiviral medicines help to prevent people with a COVID-19 infection from becoming severely unwell.

    “We’re proposing to change the way we describe who is at high risk from developing a COVID-19 infection,” says Pharmac’s Director Pharmaceuticals, Geraldine MacGibbon.

    The change Pharmac is proposing will mean that all people who are aged 50 years or older with COVID-19 and are determined to be at high risk could access funded antivirals if they need them.

    “We’re also proposing to change to how we manage the funding and supply of these medicines,” MacGibbon says.

    The management and supply of COVID-19 treatments was unique due to the need to respond to the global COVID-19 pandemic, but Pharmac is now working to align the funding and supply of COVID-19 antivirals with our normal process, MacGibbon says.

    Currently Pharmac buys COVID-19 antivirals upfront from the medicines budget, and then supplies them to pharmacies and Health NZ hospitals at no cost.

    “The change we are proposing will mean pharmacies and Health NZ hospitals can order what they need from wholesalers and claim back costs from Pharmac. This change will align the management of COVID-19 antivirals with other funded medicines in New Zealand,” MacGibbon says.

    “We need your feedback to tell us if this proposal will meet the needs of New Zealanders who need access to this medicine. Your input is valuable to us and has an impact on the decisions we make,” MacGibbon says.

    The consultation is open now until Friday 30 May. If the proposal is approved, changes would take effect from 1 September and 1 October 2025. 

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • An ode to the fourth-largest economy of the world

    Source: Government of India

    Source: Government of India (4)

    In May 2025, India stands as the fourth-largest economy in the world, surpassing Japan and trailing only the United States of America, China, and Germany.

    With a Gross Domestic Product of over four trillion dollars, the economic might of the nation is now evident to the world. In the last decade, India’s GDP has more than doubled. To put things in perspective, it took India more than 65 years to reach its first two trillion dollars, and only eleven years to add the next two.

    The economic upliftment of rural India has been integral to this leap. For decades, the countryside was plagued by issues of food, shelter, and clothing. However, in the last eleven years, these challenges have been addressed through precise and people-centric policymaking.

    While an array of welfare programmes tells a compelling story, the simplest policy moves have been most effective. For instance, the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana has ensured an additional quota of foodgrains for more than 80 crore people. Before the Narendra Modi government took office, surplus foodgrains in government coffers were under contention, yet the previous government was unwilling to distribute them to those in need.

    Beyond welfare, this has had a significant economic impact. People in villages now have more disposable income, which they are using to buy consumer durables, processed foods, and foods with higher nutritional value. Aspirations are changing, and the success of the Mudra Yojana is a testament to this shift. No longer a liability, rural India is now an asset for a rising nation.

    Urban pockets are evolving as well. With every trillion dollars added to the economy, consumer demand is transforming. Earlier this month, Lego, one of the world’s largest toymakers, opened its first store in India in Gurugram, Haryana. Apple, the world’s leading technology company, is now embedded in urban markets, increasing its manufacturing volume and value within India.

    But India’s manufacturing story is not just about Apple; it encompasses millions of young and old entrepreneurs shifting to local production, moving beyond the role of traders. Near the Haryana border, in Delhi’s North-West district, lies Bawana, an example of this significant shift. The Prime Minister’s larger message of ‘Make in India, Make for India, and Make for the World’ has resonated with entrepreneurs here, who are leading the change.

    The greatest supplement to India’s growth over the last decade has been infrastructure. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shown an unprecedented commitment to infrastructure development, rivaling Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1930s.

    India’s infrastructure push over the last decade has been the most ambitious in any democracy in the past century. A simple litmus test is that every individual within a 50-kilometer radius can vouch for redevelopment and numerous greenfield infrastructure projects.

    These projects are empowering people in every state, enabling access to greater economic and employment opportunities. Projects like the Dedicated Freight Corridors, dormant under the previous government, are now instrumental in reducing export costs and enhancing the ease of doing business.

    In the northeastern part of the country, projects are opening new avenues for tourism and the regional economy. In the Himalayas, strategic infrastructure initiatives, from Arunachal Pradesh to Ladakh, are strengthening military capabilities.

    The government’s intent toward infrastructure is validated by its annual capital expenditure commitment. In recent years, the Centre has committed over Rs. 50 lakh crore to infrastructure development. This also serves as evidence of the government’s fiscal management, which has navigated the pandemic, the global supply chain crisis, and the Russia-Ukraine war. The focus has been on creating long-term assets to fuel economic growth.

    The dual impact of welfare and infrastructure is fostering a generation of job creators. These are citizens, born in the late 1980s, 1990s, and early 2000s, who are not seeking employment but creating it.

    This new generation is further empowered by the digitisation of the economy and the pan-India market it has opened. These include digital creators as well. Employing anywhere from two to two hundred professionals, these entrepreneurs are transforming the dynamics of the Indian job market.

    This is what makes India the largest free market in the world. Beyond geopolitical dynamics, the economic might of India’s market size cannot be underestimated. India’s market access alone can cripple foreign powers, as seen in 2020 when the government banned TikTok and in 2025 when it sent a stern message to Pakistan through Operation Sindoor. The world needs India more than India needs the world. That is the power of 140 crore people.

    India’s rise to the third-largest economy is certain and will occur before 2029. Then begins a long journey toward becoming one of the world’s most important economic centres, driven by its market and demography. If the last decade was about cementing the size of the economy, the next will witness sharp and steep progress in microeconomic fundamentals, from per capita income to changing expenditure dynamics.

    From being among the ‘Fragile Five’ in 2013, India has come a long way by 2025, ranking among the top five. The comeback has been remarkable, and the country retains the momentum to surge further ahead. In 2015, it was the story of an economy struggling to find its footing. In 2025, it is about an economy ready to rise like an albatross, and by 2035, the story will be of a ten-trillion-dollar economy, reclaiming its civilisational position in a brave new world.

    (Tushar Gupta is a Delhi-based journalist and a political commentator)

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Briefing – State of the Schengen area – 26-05-2025

    Source: European Parliament

    The development of the Schengen area is one of the major achievements of European integration. The removal of checks on persons at the Schengen states’ internal borders greatly facilitates the exercise of the EU freedoms of movement, which brings significant social and economic benefits. The Schengen area has come under increased stress in the past decade, owing to multiple challenges relating to increased migration into the EU, threats to internal security and the COVID 19 pandemic. In response to these challenges, many Schengen states decided to reintroduce checks at some or all of their internal borders. Despite the prescribed temporary nature of such measures, several Schengen states have prolonged these checks for years on end. The number of Schengen states with checks at internal borders reached its peak (18 states) during the first wave of the pandemic. In May 2025, 11 Schengen states had checks at internal borders owing to serious threats related to irregular migration and/or internal security. The Schengen area has expanded gradually in the past three decades and is now composed of 29 countries. In January 2025, Bulgaria and Romania were the latest two countries to fully join the Schengen area, 18 years after their accession to the EU. Cyprus is also legally bound to join the Schengen area, but the evaluation procedure for its full accession is still ongoing. This briefing presents key recent figures and developments in the Schengen area, focusing on the Schengen states’ measures to reintroduce checks at internal borders, and on the current situation regarding the completion of the Schengen area. This is an update of a briefing originally published in December 2023.

    MIL OSI Europe News

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Sharing Knowledge on Clinical Advances at Hospital Authority Convention (with photos)

    Source: Hong Kong Government special administrative region

    The following is issued on behalf of the Hospital Authority:

         The Hospital Authority (HA) Convention 2025 begins today for three consecutive days (May 26 to 28) at the Hong Kong Convention and Exhibition Centre, in both in-person and online formats. This marks the first time the convention has been extended to three days, making it the HA’s largest-scale event to date. Approximately 190 overseas, Mainland and local distinguished speakers will exchange expertise on various healthcare topics with over 8,000 participating healthcare professionals and academics, achieving record-high participation levels.
     
         The HA Convention this year is focusing on the HA’s core values, namely People-centred Care, Professional Service, Committed Staff and Teamwork. Topics include healthcare development, smart hospitals, artificial intelligence, organ transplantation, cancer management, and innovation technology in support of staff training. The HA convention aims to promote the sharing of knowledge and experience on clinical advances and approaches to modern healthcare service, and facilitate exploration and discussion of contemporary concepts among healthcare professionals and stakeholders.
     
         The convention was officially opened this morning by Vice-Minister of the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China Professor Cao Xuetao; the Chief Secretary for Administration, Mr Chan Kwok-ki; the Secretary for Health, Professor Lo Chung-mau; the HA Chairman, Mr Henry Fan; and the HA Chief Executive, Dr Tony Ko.
     
         In his address, Mr Chan said that the HA has been continuously reforming and enhancing service efficiency and quality through its professional team and robust management system. Notably, the Institute for Medical Advancement and Clinical Excellence (IMACE), which brings together different areas of expertise from Hong Kong’s healthcare sector, was formally established this May.
     
         “The HA will be very much involved in the IMACE’s research work, collaborating with other major public and private healthcare institutions to collect data and cases for detailed deliberations on clinical practices in the screening, diagnosis, treatment and management of various diseases, evaluating the efficacy of various medical options, and devising clinical guidelines and standards for healthcare professionals. This collective effort aims to enhance Hong Kong’s healthcare service standards for the benefit of patients throughout Hong Kong.”
     
         In his welcome address, Mr Fan said that 2025 marks the commencement of an era of reformation at the HA. A key initiative is supporting the Government’s public healthcare fees and charges reform aimed at rationalising public hospital services, reducing wastage and misuse, and enhancing support for patients with financial difficulties.
     
         Mr Fan said, “2025 is a crucial year for the HA’s reform initiatives. Facing challenges such as an ageing population, an increase of chronic diseases, and rising medical costs, the HA needs to undergo fundamental reforms to meet public needs, enhance service efficiency, and maintain the sustainability of the public healthcare system while building a public healthcare system that meets the needs of the community that enhances the well-being of citizens.”
     
         Additionally, the HA established the Review Committee on the Management of the Public Hospital System last year, proposing 31 recommendations to strengthen governance, enhance accountability, and foster a culture of safety. Building on this foundation, in order to advance reform, the HA further established a high-level Governance and Structure Reform Committee (Reform Committee) last year to provide strategic guidance, oversight, and reform advice to promote the sustainable development of healthcare services.
     
         Mr Fan continued, “Among the many topics that the Reform Committee will be looking into, remuneration structure, financial management and clinical management are particularly crucial. This includes introducing the concept of ‘more contribution, more gain’, with remuneration commensurate with performance and contributions to provide motivation for colleagues, reviewing the financial management system to achieve cost savings, and utilising modern technology to optimise clinical outcomes.”
     
         Delivering his keynote address at the opening ceremony, “Advancing Sustainable Excellence”, Dr Ko reviewed the HA’s 35 years of experience and shared his vision for a sustainable, patient-centred public healthcare system.
     
         “With a rapidly ageing population, swift medical technological advancements, and unpredictable threats of global pandemics, we must remain proactive in driving bold reforms. Digital transformation is central to our strategy in addressing rising healthcare demands. The HA is committed to enhancing digital innovation, integrating big data and artificial intelligence (AI) technologies to improve service efficiency and performance while enhancing both patient and healthcare staff experiences,” Dr Ko said. 
        He said that the HA Go mobile application continues to stand as a transformative patient empowerment platform, significantly improving patient experience through technology. “HA Go now has over 3.1 million registered users, empowers patients with easy access to self care and direct interaction with healthcare services. HA Go streamlines the patient journey through offering seamless features such as outpatient appointment management, registration, payments, digital queuing updates, all accessible within a few clicks. The platform also provides patients with options for medication delivery services, which embodies our patient-centred service mission”, Dr Ko said.
     
         He emphasised, “While technology advances, staff remain the irreplaceable core of quality healthcare services. We are committed to providing our staff members with opportunities for personal growth and professional development. The HA sponsored more than 2,600 staff members to participate in training programmes in various places in 2024/25. Through immersive exchange and training initiatives, our healthcare professionals have gained valuable exposure to diverse clinical practices and perspectives. Such experiences foster mutual learning and encourage broader horizons for all staff.”
     
         In addition to retaining and cultivating existing personnel, Dr Ko said that it is equally important to reach out to new talent from outside. The HA actively recruits non-locally trained doctors and nurses. As of mid-March this year, nearly 300 non-locally trained doctors have joined the HA team, nearly double in comparison to last year. Following the Nurses Registration (Amendment) Ordinance 2024, more than 100 non-locally trained nursing candidates have also been employed, further reinforcing Hong Kong’s clinical capabilities. Over 240 individuals have taken part in expanded clinical exchange programmes, while more than 100 Chinese Medicine practitioners in the HA received training from Mainland experts.
     
         Dr Ko stressed that the HA must highlight the deep collaboration with counterparts in the Mainland, which is vital to the growth and evolution of the local healthcare landscape. A key area of collaboration is enhancing services for major diseases such as cardiac illnesses and strokes. To drive integrated and high-quality care, the HA is establishing chest pain centres and national stroke centres, harmonising treatment protocols and elevating outcomes through national accreditation. The first chest pain centre in Hong Kong at Queen Mary Hospital has been established according to national accreditation standards, further optimising treatment options for cardiovascular patients.
     
         “In line with the Chief Executive’s policy direction to enhance Hong Kong’s healthcare standards, the first batch of public hospitals, including Pamela Youde Nethersole Eastern Hospital and Prince of Wales Hospital, have been awarded accreditation status under the China’s International Hospital Accreditation Standards (2021 Version). To ensure consistent quality improvement across hospitals throughout the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, three additional acute hospitals will embark on their accreditation journey in 2025-26, further strengthening their international presence and raising the quality and safety of healthcare services.”
     
         In conclusion, Dr Ko said, “We are living in an era of profound transformation. Let us uphold the spirit that ‘reform is an ongoing journey’, embrace technological innovation, sustain healthcare excellence, optimise resource allocation, and enhance service efficiency and quality to swiftly respond to the community’s evolving needs.” He expressed confidence that with the determination of all members of the HA and the support from the community and partners, the HA will collectively shape a brighter, more sustainable future for in public healthcare.

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Opening of the Polytech-Tangshan Center

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: Peter the Great St Petersburg Polytechnic University – Peter the Great St Petersburg Polytechnic University –

    A delegation from the Saint Petersburg Polytechnic University took part in the opening ceremony of the Polytechnic-Tangshan preparatory center, which took place on May 13 in the Chinese city of Tangshan.

    The project, the agreement for which was signed in March 2022, has finally acquired official status, overcoming a three-year pause caused by the pandemic. Despite the forced delay, the center has already proven its effectiveness: graduates from Tangshan are successfully entering the Polytechnic.

    The official ceremony was held at Yongping Secondary School with the participation of key partners. Welcoming speeches were given by the head of Tangshan East Education Corporation Zhang Guofu, the head of the Friendship Bridge company Dmitry Rogozin, and assistant to the vice-rector of SPbPU Pavel Nedelko. The Polytechnic delegation was also represented by the director of the Humanities Institute Natalia Chicherina, her deputy Tatyana Nam and senior lecturer of the Higher School of Linguistics and Pedagogy Andrey Koshkin.

    The program of the visit included not only official events, but also active interaction with future applicants. Over the course of three days, the delegation visited Tangshan East School, an experimental school, and State Secondary School No. 1, where they held presentations of SPbPU educational programs. Of particular interest was the quiz about our university and St. Petersburg: the most erudite schoolchildren received memorable souvenirs.

    The opening of the Polytech-Tangshan center was a symbolic step in strengthening Russian-Chinese educational ties.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Michael S Barr: Artificial intelligence and the labor market – a scenario-based approach

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today. In my remarks, I would like to address a key question facing economists, policymakers, and people all over the world: How will artificial intelligence, particularly generative artificial intelligence, or GenAI, affect workers and the labor market in the years ahead?

    Before I turn to that issue, I’d like to touch on a topic that I expect is also of interest: the outlook for the U.S. economy and the implications for monetary policy.

    The U.S. economy entered this quarter in a relatively strong position: The unemployment rate has been low and stable, and the disinflationary process has continued on a gradual, albeit uneven, path towards our 2 percent objective. Private domestic final purchases have been solid. Overall, the economy has been resilient.

    Against that backdrop, the outlook has been clouded by trade policies that have led to an increase in uncertainty, contributing to declines in measures of consumer and business sentiment. I expect tariffs to lead to higher inflation in the United States and lower growth both in the United States and abroad starting later this year.

    In my view, higher tariffs could lead to disruption to global supply chains and create persistent upward pressure on inflation. Faced with substantial tariffs, businesses will likely change how they source intermediate inputs, and it will take time and investment for them to reroute their distribution networks. Conversely, global trade networks may change rapidly, and some suppliers may not be able to adapt quickly enough to survive these changes. This concern is particularly acute for small businesses, which are less diversified, less able to access credit, and hence more vulnerable to adverse shocks. Small businesses play a vital role in production networks, often providing specialized inputs that can’t easily be sourced elsewhere, and business failures could further disrupt supply chains. As we saw during the pandemic, such disruptions can have large and lasting effects on prices, as well as output.

    MIL OSI Economics

  • MIL-OSI New Zealand: Port of Auckland Limited sentenced over fatal 2020 incident

    Source: Maritime New Zealand

    Sentencing of major port company a reminder of the risks on New Zealand’s ports.

    Today, Port of Auckland Limited (POAL) was sentenced after pleading guilty to two charges under the Health and Safety at Work Act 2015. The charges were filed by Maritime NZ after stevedore Pala’amo Kalati was killed by a falling container on 30 August 2020.

    Following the death of Mr Kalati, a comprehensive investigation was undertaken by Maritime NZ. Everyone involved and the staff at Maritime NZ wish to extend their condolences to Mr Kalati’s family and to his co-worker who was in the vicinity with him at the time of the incident.

    Maritime NZ Director, Kirstie Hewlett says his death was a manifestation of the risk caused and contributed to by POAL’s failures around stevedore safety.

    “Those failures were long standing and systemic, putting many stevedores at risk for an extended period of time,” Ms Hewlett says.

    Changes were also made to processes around the time of the incident due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This lessened the oversight while undertaking work such as what was occurring when the incident happened.

    Prior to the incident occurring, Mr Kalati and a colleague were working on board as lashers discharging containers from the MV Constantinos P. A crane was operating adjacent to the two men. It was lifting pairs of containers off the vessel when a third container was accidentally lifted as well. The third container detached and fell, killing Mr Kalati.

    “While nothing can bring Mr Kalati back to his family or change the impact on his co-worker, who was also present. This tragic incident as well as two other fatal incidents in April 2022, highlighted the need to review and make changes to health and safety on New Zealand ports.

    “It is good to see POAL take responsibility for its actions and pleading guilty.

    “Over the last 20 months, Maritime NZ alongside our partners in the Port Health and Safety Leadership Group has undertaken a significant programme of work to reduce harm on New Zealand’s ports.

    “Since the Leadership Group was set-up POAL has and continues to be a key contributor in the work to bring down instances of harm on New Zealand ports.

    “We want there to be a culture in the sector that reflects the need to take a safety-first approach to operations.

    “Port workers need to be safe at work,” Kirstie Hewlett says.

    MIL OSI New Zealand News

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: New Tourism Strategy Set to Drive Sustainable Growth in Perth and Kinross

    Source: Scotland – City of Perth

    The Perth and Kinross Tourism Strategy and Action Plan 2025-2030, developed by the Perthshire Tourism Partnership, sets out a bold vision for the future of tourism in the region.

    The strategy focuses on four key areas: area promotion and destination marketing, investment and infrastructure, market development and internationalisation, and industry growth and resilience. Together, these priorities aim to increase visitor numbers, attract inward investment, develop new tourism products and experiences, and support local businesses to grow and thrive.

    With a strong emphasis on recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic, the plan outlines a clear path towards sustainable growth in the tourism sector, ensuring it continues to play a vital role in the economic and cultural life of Perth and Kinross.

    Tourism monitoring data for 2023 revealed that the region welcomed 2.3 million visitors, generating £703 million in direct and indirect economic activity. The total economic impact for local businesses and communities was £641 million, supporting approximately 8,200 full-time equivalent jobs. Compared to 2022, this represents an 8.8% increase in economic impact, a 15.4% rise in visitor numbers, and a 1.5% increase in total visitor days and nights.

    The strategy also explores other funding opportunities to support future investment in tourism infrastructure and services.

    Councillor Eric Drysdale, Convener of Perth and Kinross Council’s Economy and Infrastructure Committee, said: “The Perth and Kinross Tourism Strategy and Action Plan 2025-2030 is an important blueprint for our region’s economic prosperity.

    “By focusing on sustainable growth, we are not only enhancing our local economy but also ensuring that Perth and Kinross remains a vibrant and attractive destination for visitors.

    “This strategy will help everyone involved in tourism in Perth and Kinross navigate the challenges ahead and seize new opportunities, ultimately benefiting our communities and businesses alike.”

    The Perthshire Tourism Partnership, established in 2005, brings together tourism businesses, local associations, collaborative groups, and public sector agencies, including Perth and Kinross Council. The partnership plays a key role in shaping strategic direction and fostering collaboration across the tourism sector.

    David Smythe, Chairman of the Perthshire Tourism Partnership, said: “I thank Perthshire Tourism Partnership members and the tourism industry leaders who all contributed to shaping the new Tourism Strategy, which sets a clear path forward for this economically vital sector in Perth and Kinross.

    “Getting the tourism balance right through sustainable growth and focusing on the key themes is important to help keep our communities vibrant as they embrace the opportunities visitors bring to our lovely part of Scotland.”

    MIL OSI United Kingdom

  • MIL-OSI Banking: KDCA and SK bioscience forge ahead to shield South Korea against future pandemic influenza threats, says GlobalData

    Source: GlobalData

    KDCA and SK bioscience forge ahead to shield South Korea against future pandemic influenza threats, says GlobalData

    Posted in Pharma

    South Korea has launched the Priority Infectious Disease Pandemic Preparedness Rapid R&D Support Program, led by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA) in collaboration with SK bioscience. This proactive initiative is expected to significantly strengthen and prepare the nation against emerging influenza threats, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

    This government-led initiative focuses on developing vaccines against avian influenza that are identified as high-risk candidates for future pandemics. SK bioscience has demonstrated technological capabilities by manufacturing vaccines for global partners and successfully launching its own COVID-19 vaccine.

    SK bioscience’s portfolio includes the WHO-prequalified SkyCellflu Quadrivalent and Skycellflu, both domestically developed cell-cultured influenza vaccines, and SKYCovione, South Korea’s first homegrown COVID-19 vaccine. It is the only domestic company to have commercialized cell-culture-based vaccines for both influenza and COVID-19 with significant strengths in vaccine development.

    Chilamula Srija, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “The experiences with the COVID-19 pandemic underscored the risk of dependence on international supply chains for essential medical resources. By investing in domestic R&D, South Korea aims for greater autonomy and to ensure timely access to life-saving vaccines for its citizens in future emergencies.”

    According to GlobalData’s Pharmaceutical Intelligence Center, SK bioscience is expected to initiate a Phase I/II study for an avian influenza vaccine in H2 2026. Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co Ltd is another domestic company in Phase III trials targeting Influenza A Virus, H1N1, and H3N2 subtypes.

    KDCA and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) collaborated in May 2024 to accelerate vaccine development and other biological countermeasures against public health threats. This partnership underscores the commitment to global health security and the rapid response to a broad spectrum of high priority infectious diseases, including Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Ebola, mpox.

    SK bioscience has previously collaborated with KDCA, notably winning the most bids in the government’s 2023-24 national flu vaccination program. Other companies such as GC Pharma, Ilyang Pharmaceutical, Boryung Corp., and Korea Vaccine also contributed millions of doses to support national immunization efforts.

    Chilamula concludes: “With a robust vaccine pipeline, national collaboration, and advanced manufacturing capabilities, SK bioscience is poised to lead the nation’s next-generation pandemic preparedness strategy. By encouraging domestic companies, South Korea is preparing to face future pandemics and positioning the country as a global leader in pandemic readiness while reducing reliance on foreign pharmaceutical giants.”

    MIL OSI Global Banks

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: 26 May 2025 Departmental update WHO guideline on contact tracing now available in Arabic, Chinese, French, Russian and Spanish

    Source: World Health Organisation

    On 13 January 2025, WHO published its first disease-agnostic guideline on contact tracing (in English) after two years of evidence retrieval and deliberations. This guideline was curated by a WHO steering group, a Guideline development group, and reviewed by an External review group under the Surveillance Systems department’s leadership and with the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) operational support team’s collaboration, as well as the constant support from the WHO Guidelines Review Committee secretariat.  

    This guideline was developed to address the need for the development of evidence-based contact tracing strategies. It establishes definitions for “contact”, “contact person”, “contact tracing” and other associated concepts. It allows for improvement of contact tracing strategies and provides recommendations attempting to answer some, though not all, questions that arose during the 2019 coronavirus pandemic and other outbreaks. The use of this guideline begins once people have been diagnosed and the potential for transmission exists. It is not, however, intended to assist with case investigation. 

    The primary audience for this guideline includes WHO Member States, national public health agencies, WHO teams and other organizations which play roles in implementing or researching contact tracing efforts including NGOs, community-based groups, academic institutions, and UN agencies.

    The guideline is now available in all six official languages on WHO website.

    Looking ahead, to encourage the application of these concepts and definitions and the uptake of the recommendations, a practical implementation guidance is being developed. It will provide practical explanations, best practices, and standardized procedures to enhance the effectiveness of contact tracing strategies across diverse public health setting. More specifically, it will:

    • identify key factors influencing decisions to start, to stop, to scale-up and to scale-down contact tracing;
    • provide a systematic overview of methods used for contact person identification and to assess their applicability;
    • provide a systematic overview of methods used for contact person follow-up and monitoring and to assess their applicability;
    • provide a systematic overview of methods used for measuring the performance of the contact tracing strategies and assess their applicability; and
    • define a minimum set of variables needed for contact tracing.

     For more information about this project, please contact us at contacttracing@who.int.

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI USA: Cook, A View on Financial Stability

    Source: US State of New York Federal Reserve

    Thank you, Alessandra, for organizing us today, and thanks to you, Veronica Guerrieri, and Marina Azzimonti for initiating this effort seven years ago. I am honored to be with so many friends in macroeconomics at the 2025 Women in Macro Conference. I still read, recommend, and cite your work and am grateful to New York University and the University of Chicago for supporting this conference and this research.1
    How has the arc of mainstream macroeconomic research become more closely integrated with issues related to financial stability? This question is what I would like to discuss today. I applaud the advances in incorporating financial stability into macroeconomic models, which have significantly enhanced our understanding of financial market functioning and its effect on the economy. It is a topic that holds special importance to me as a macroeconomist who has worked at the intersection of macroeconomics and finance since my dissertation and as the chair of the Federal Reserve Board’s Committee on Financial Stability. I would like to then offer my assessment of the stability of the U.S. financial system.
    Financial stability supports the objectives assigned to the Federal Reserve, including full employment and stable prices, a safe and sound banking system, and an efficient payments system. A financial system is considered stable when banks, other lenders, and financial markets are able to provide households, communities, and businesses with the financing they need to invest, grow, and participate in a well-functioning economy—and can do so even when hit by adverse events, or “shocks.”2 Financial instability, by contrast, arises when vulnerabilities—such as asset bubbles, excessive leverage, liquidity mismatches, or interconnected exposures—can build up to such an extent that they can amplify different shocks and threaten the core functions of the system and the functioning of the broader economy.
    Macroeconomic Research and Financial StabilityThe idea that supply creates its own demand, or Say’s law, was the prevailing economic orthodoxy of the 1800s. As a result, the core content of macroeconomics as a separate discipline did not exist. Prolonged periods of involuntary unemployment were considered to be impossible. Money and credit were thought to act as a “veil” with no real effects, so money was seen as neutral and banks and other financial intermediaries as essentially passive, despite what we now know.
    The Great Depression fundamentally put an end to this comforting orthodoxy and prompted decades of work to better understand the causes of, and policy responses to, economic fluctuations. For the first time, financial factors took center stage in economic theory. Directly responding to the failures of economic theory exposed by the Depression, John Maynard Keynes introduced the concept of a “liquidity trap,” in which fear pushes the demand for money so high that the usual corrective measures become ineffective.3 Friedrich Hayek and the Austrian school of economics emphasized the role of unsustainable credit booms, noting that booms in “malinvestment” would lead to fundamental mismatches that would need to be addressed.4 Despite the early focus on panics, credit booms, and extreme dynamics, macroeconomic research evolved in a way that de-emphasized the role of the financial system, likely reflecting technical limitations and, more broadly, the need to develop policy frameworks for the post–World War II economy where the Great Depression seemed less relevant. Modeling financial crises requires addressing complex nonlinear dynamics, feedback loops, and discontinuities, like defaults and bank runs. All of these were analytically intractable and computationally unmanageable with the tools available at the time.
    As a result, the macroeconomic framework that originated from the ideas of Keynes generally assumed stable and frictionless financial markets. The IS-LM, or Investment-Saving Liquidity Preference-Money Supply framework, which describes how the goods market and the money market interact to determine aggregate output and interest rates in the economy, emerged as the central analytical tool for understanding short-run output and interest rate dynamics.5
    However, the neoclassical synthesis was not without its critics. Joan Robinson argued that capital accumulation and investment behavior were inherently volatile and criticized the prevailing framework for overlooking important sources of instability.6 Milton Friedman’s work challenged the Keynesian paradigm by highlighting the importance of monetary policy and the destabilizing effects of monetary mismanagement.7 Even as the rational expectations revolution in macro ushered in explicit modeling of micro foundations and dynamic optimization, financial intermediaries, credit frictions, and the potential for systemic crises remained largely absent. Neoclassical growth models prioritized capital accumulation and technological progress as drivers of long-run growth, and real business cycle models emphasized productivity shocks as drivers of fluctuations in employment and growth.8
    Two papers familiar to many of you here and published in 1983 were instrumental in bringing financial stability considerations back into macroeconomic research. Douglas Diamond and Philip Dybvig showed how banks’ role in providing liquidity makes them vulnerable to runs, while Ben Bernanke demonstrated how bank failures deepened the Great Depression.9 These contributions, which were recognized with a Nobel Prize in 2022, have helped pave the way for researchers wishing to explore both directions of the relationship between financial fragility and macroeconomic outcomes. In parallel, Hyman Minsky’s financial instability hypothesis advanced a dynamic view of systemic risk, emphasizing how periods of sustained economic and financial stability tend to encourage excessive leverage and risk-taking—culminating in what we now call a “Minsky moment.” This phenomenon is when a rapid unwinding of financial positions triggers broader economic distress.10
    Ultimately, it took the Global Financial Crisis to bring home just how deeply the financial system and macroeconomic dynamics are intertwined, as evidenced by the explosion of research on financial stability and financial frictions. Models incorporating financial intermediaries, leverage cycles, and endogenous risk became more central to macroeconomic analysis, while empirical work confirmed the critical role of credit booms in preceding financial crises.11
    Over the past few years, macroeconomic research, to which some of you have contributed, continued to incorporate important financial stability aspects, ranging from endogenous leverage and bank runs to models studying the effects of monetary policy in the presence of heterogenous banks.12 Much of this research is also being done at the Fed, and it has informed our current work in the area. I thought it would be helpful to describe some of that work to you.
    Monitoring Financial StabilityCentral banks around the world routinely monitor the financial system for risks, because financial crises can lead to severe recessions. A cornerstone of the Fed’s work in this area is our framework for monitoring and assessing vulnerabilities. The most recent version of our semiannual Financial Stability Report (FSR) was released last month.13 Our framework distinguishes between two fundamental elements: shocks and vulnerabilities.14 Shocks are adverse events that by their nature are difficult to predict and, unfortunately, are all too frequent. Recent examples include the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, and many geopolitical events that still warrant headlines. Vulnerabilities, which are aspects of the financial system that would amplify stress, tend to build up over time and can be identified and assessed. We monitor vulnerabilities in four key categories: asset valuation pressures, household and business borrowing, financial-sector leverage, and liquidity and maturity transformation, or funding risks. Policies to build resilience in the financial system are appropriately targeted at reducing vulnerabilities, because they do not require foreknowledge of any particular shocks.
    The financial cycle is recognized as being lower in frequency than the business cycle, with vulnerabilities building over years and typically only to be crystallizing in a short-lived stress event—the classic dynamic of going up by the stairs but down by the elevator.15 Further, as I mentioned earlier, vulnerabilities often build during prolonged expansions as, for example, investor optimism leads to greater tolerance of risk, excess borrowing, and increased leverage. The realization of stress and associated contraction can put these forces into reverse, resulting in decreased vulnerabilities. But the economic and human costs of such an adjustment can be significant.
    Financial Stability AssessmentOur most recent FSR reflects data and information generally available as of April 11, a point when financial market volatility and risk-off sentiment were elevated, with, for example, the S&P 500 having fallen more than 10 percent from its prior peak. Nonetheless, the report echoes many of the themes that we had been highlighting for the previous couple of years. I will discuss our most recent report in the context of some of those themes and illustrate a few lessons from the April volatility.
    Let me start with one theme that is quite encouraging. Generally, businesses and household finances are in solid shape. Most households are able to service their debt, and overall household debt relative to GDP has declined over the past five years. While we are seeing some stress among low-to-moderate-income borrowers and those with subprime credit scores, the risks posed by overall household borrowing remain moderate. Stable balance sheets and solid income have supported the ability of most nonfinancial businesses to service their debt. At the same time, smaller and riskier businesses—which tend to have lower debt service capacity, measured by the interest coverage ratio—are sensitive to income shocks.
    Most households are able to service their debt, and overall household debt relative to GDP has declined over the past five years. While vulnerabilities posed by overall household borrowing remain moderate, we are seeing some signs of stress among borrowers with subprime credit scores, which include many low- and moderate-income households. For instance, auto and credit card delinquency rates for borrowers with subprime credit scores increased substantially in 2022 and 2023 and are at or near their highest levels since the financial crisis. More generally, a sufficiently large income shock could strain the debt-servicing capacity of a broader group of households and push up delinquency and default rates, resulting in more substantial losses for lenders.
    Asset prices have fluctuated significantly over the past several years. Although we do look at asset prices, we tend to focus more on “valuations pressures,” which essentially measure how much prices differ from a variety of benchmarks. For instance, we care whether prices, relative to measures of risk, appear to be out of step with historical experience. In such circumstances, the potential price declines—should risk appetite revert to historical averages—would be larger than normal. Additionally, when the compensation for risk is low, borrowing or leverage could also increase and put further upward pressure on valuations. Coming into the April volatility, valuation pressures were elevated, consistent with the strong economy.
    Allow me to discuss our view of valuation pressures in property markets and come back shortly to the imprint of the April volatility on stock and bond prices. The significant rise in house prices during and after the pandemic has slowed substantially over the past couple of years, but price-to-rent ratios and model-based valuation measures are around the record levels last seen in 2005. Two key differences are that lax underwriting standards do not appear to have driven the increase in house prices and owners’ equity appears to be more solid, using both price- and model-based measures.
    We also noted that commercial real estate (CRE) valuations had been elevated going into 2022 but declined significantly through the period of higher interest rates and deteriorating CRE fundamentals. Prices and fundamentals appear to have moderated, and valuations are closer to historical norms. Given the significant volume of CRE that is maturing and will need to be refinanced, I am continuing to watch this market closely.
    Let me now turn to financial system leverage and funding risks. Capital in the banking system continues to be at historically high levels. However, as you no doubt remember, the intersection of interest rate and liquidity risks played a prominent role in the March 2023 banking-sector stress. High reliance on funding from uninsured deposits was a key vulnerability among some of the most affected banks, including those that failed. When higher interest rates resulted in substantial unrealized losses, we observed rapid outflows of uninsured deposits from a handful of banks. In the April FSR, we describe how over the past couple of years, the share of uninsured deposits relative to total bank funding has decreased for most banks, especially for those that previously relied heavily on uninsured deposits. This outcome is a welcome signal. However, sizable exposure to fixed-rate assets remains, suggesting ongoing exposure to interest rate risk.
    Since 2019, our FSRs have noted another development in markets—a decline in market liquidity. “Market liquidity” refers to the cost of quickly buying or selling a desired quantity of a security and being able to do so without having a significant effect on the market price. During periods of asset-price volatility, it is not surprising that liquidity often declines, so we consider whether market liquidity measures are low given the level of volatility. As discussed in previous FSRs, some evidence indicates that a number of measures of liquidity have shifted down over time, particularly in Treasury markets, where volatility has also been relatively high.16 We have done a lot of work, as have others, to analyze the causes and what lower liquidity in normal times may imply for market functioning during periods of severe stress. One area we are exploring is broker-dealers’ intermediation capacity, which has been affected by a number of factors, including elevated Treasury issuance and increased client demand for secured financing—which is typically collateralized by Treasury securities.
    With that backdrop, let me now turn to last month’s events. The details of the tariff announcements in early April were unexpected. Corporate earnings calls and our own broad-based market outreach suggest three areas of concern among businesses and market participants: One, significantly heightened uncertainty, two, an increased risk of a slowdown in economic activity, and three, prospects for higher inflation. With subsequent announcements some of this uncertainty has ebbed. Nonetheless, the episode offers some insights relevant for financial stability.
    Asset prices fell sharply, particularly in equities, but also in corporate bond and other securities markets. By the second week of April, major stock indices had declined almost 20 percent from their mid-February peaks, with over half of the declines coming in a seven-day period in early April. The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index, the VIX, was extremely elevated through this period, closing at levels not seen since the onset of the pandemic. Some of the decline in equity prices likely reflected a change in the economic outlook, but investor risk appetite likely fell as well, although this is harder to assess because data on changes in earnings expectations arrive with a lag. As we have flagged in previous FSRs, large asset-price declines, whatever the cause, can trigger margin spirals and other feedback loops that are self-reinforcing, if there is excessive leverage or liquidity mismatches in the system.
    Highly leveraged investors, including some large hedge funds, have rapidly unwound positions during past bouts of market volatility. While such dynamics likely contributed to some of the price declines in early April, the overall volumes appear limited. As Roberto Perli, the manager of the Federal Open Market Committee’s System Open Market Account, noted in a recent speech, while there is evidence of some unwinding of the swap spread trade, it was orderly. He said there is no evidence of an unwinding of the cash-futures basis trade, a large and highly leveraged trade that exploits small differences in the prices of Treasury securities and Treasury futures contracts. This stability likely owes in part to the resilience of funding markets through this episode.17
    Large asset-price declines also prompt outflows from open-end mutual funds. Some funds specialize in relatively illiquid assets, such as high-yield corporate bonds or leveraged loans. This is another potential vulnerability we have tracked over time, because a large redemption wave can overwhelm these funds’ cash reserves, leading to fire-sale dynamics in the underlying markets. And redemptions from some funds were quite large in April, particularly given that, in contrast with previous episodes, the general level of interest rates did not fall. Nonetheless, funds were able to handle these redemptions without contributing to stress in corporate debt markets.
    Treasury markets also continued to function in an orderly fashion throughout the episode. To be sure, market depth and other liquidity measures decreased from already low levels, but the decline was in line with what would be anticipated, given the elevated volatility in markets. This outcome is in contrast to what we saw in March 2020, when trading became much more difficult than would have been expected, given the level of volatility because of the broad market dysfunction that characterized the onset of the pandemic.
    The episode provided a real-life example of the large asset-price declines and sudden bursts of volatility that can result from shocks when asset valuations are stretched, as well as the importance of stable and resilient funding markets in absorbing shocks. The experience will surely help us hone our ongoing assessment of financial system vulnerabilities and areas of resilience.
    ConclusionI would like to conclude my remarks with a few examples of research areas that I think would be interesting and helpful to me and, perhaps, to other policymakers.
    First, I understand the difficulty of developing macroeconomic models in which financial risk is endogenously determined by leverage and liquidity mismatch rather than a reliance on exogenous risk shocks. But I hope that the prospect of making highly impactful policy-relevant contributions will induce researchers to dig in on this topic.
    Second, episodes of strain in U.S. Treasury markets over the past several years illustrate the importance of nonbank financial intermediaries, a term that encompasses hedge funds, mutual funds, life insurers, finance companies, and money market funds. This is particularly true in the U.S., where credit is provided by a combination of banks and nonbanks that are often connected through counterparty relationships or common exposure. It would be helpful to have deeper insights into the potential macroeconomic consequences of the shifting interaction between banks and nonbanks.
    Third, relatedly, efforts to incorporate private credit and private equity into macroeconomic models could spur important lines of research. Layered leverage in intermediation chains involving private equity, private credit funds, banks, and businesses can transmit and amplify real-economy shocks to different parts of the financial sector. In addition, private equity and private credit are macro-relevant sectors that can transmit shocks to the real economy.
    I understand that it is easy to throw out a research wish list and walk away, leaving the substantial modeling and operational challenges to others. But I do think it is worth developing new tools and approaches for better characterizing our evolving macro-financial reality. I hope some of you and your graduate students will take up the challenge.
    Thank you again for the opportunity to join you today.

    1. The views expressed here are my own and are not necessarily those of my colleagues on the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee. Return to text
    2. See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2024), Financial Stability Report (Washington: Board of Governors, April). Return to text
    3. See John Maynard Keynes (1936), The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (London: Macmillan). Return to text
    4. See Friedrich A. Hayek (1931), Prices and Production (London: George Routledge & Sons). Return to text
    5. See J. R. Hicks (1937), “Mr. Keynes and the ‘Classics’; A Suggested Interpretation,” Econometrica, vol. 5 (April), pp. 147–59; and Franco Modigliani (1944), “Liquidity Preference and the Theory of Interest and Money,” Econometrica, vol. 12 (January), pp. 45–88. Return to text
    6. See Joan Robinson (1956), The Accumulation of Capital (London: Macmillan). Return to text
    7. See Milton Friedman and Anna Jacobson Schwartz (1963), A Monetary History of the United States, 1867–1960 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press). Return to text
    8. See Robert M. Solow (1956), “A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 70 (February), pp. 65–94; and Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott (1982), “Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations,” Econometrica, vol. 50 (November), pp. 1345–70. Return to text
    9. See Douglas W. Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig (1983), “Bank Runs, Deposit Insurance, and Liquidity,” Journal of Political Economy, vol. 91 (June), pp. 401–19; Ben S. Bernanke (1983), “Nonmonetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the Propagation of the Great Depression,” American Economic Review, vol. 73 (June), pp. 257–76; and Ben S. Bernanke, Mark Gertler, and Simon Gilchrist (1983), “The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework,” in John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford, eds., vol. 1: Handbook of Macroeconomics (Amsterdam: Elsevier), pp. 1341–93. Return to text
    10. See Hyman P. Minsky (1982), Can “It” Happen Again? Essays on Instability and Finance (Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe).  Return to text
    11. See, for example, Mark Gertler and Nobuhiro Kiyotaki (2010), “Financial Intermediation and Credit Policy in Business Cycle Analysis” in Benjamin M. Friedman and Michael Woodford, eds., vol. 3: Handbook of Monetary Economics (Amsterdam: Elsevier), pp. 547–99; Markus K. Brunnermeier and Yuliy Sannikov (2014), “A Macroeconomic Model with a Financial Sector,” American Economic Review, vol. 104 (February), pp. 379–421; Mark Gertler and Simon Gilchrist (2018), “What Happened: Financial Factors in the Great Recession,” Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 32 (Summer), pp. 3–30; Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor (2013), “When Credit Bites Back,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, vol. 45 (December), pp. 3–28; Carmen M. Reinhart and Kenneth S. Rogoff (2009), This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press). Return to text
    12. See, for example, Mark Gertler, Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, and Andrea Prestipino (2020), “A Macroeconomic Model with Financial Panics,” Review of Economic Studies, vol. 87 (January), pp. 240–88; and Marco Bellifemine, Rustam Jamilov, and Tommaso Monacelli (2022), “Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Banks,” CEPR Discussion Paper No. 17129 (Washington: Center for Economic and Policy Research, March 22). Return to text
    13. See Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2025), Financial Stability Report (PDF) (Washington: Board of Governors, April). Return to text
    14. Details of the approach are outlined in the framework developed by Tobias Adrian, Daniel Covitz, and Nellie Liang (2013), “Financial Stability Monitoring (PDF),” staff report no. 601 (New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, February; revised June 2014). Return to text
    15. See Claudio Borio (2014), “The Financial Cycle and Macroeconomics: What Have We Learnt?” Journal of Banking & Finance, vol. 45 (August), pp. 182–98. Return to text
    16. See, for example, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2023), Financial Stability Report (PDF) (Washington: Board of Governors, May); and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (2024), Financial Stability Report (PDF) (Washington: Board of Governors, November). Return to text
    17. See Roberto Perli (2025), “Recent Developments in Treasury Market Liquidity and Funding Conditions,” speech delivered at the 8th Short-Term Funding Markets Conference, sponsored by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, May 9. Return to text

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI USA: Three Sentenced for $30 Million COVID-19 Unemployment Fraud

    Source: US State of California

    Three individuals were sentenced yesterday for their participation in a scheme to defraud the Georgia Department of Labor (GaDOL), out of tens of millions of dollars in benefits meant to assist unemployed individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Macovian Doston, 31, of Vienna, Georgia, was sentenced to 15 years in prison followed by three years of supervised release and ordered to pay restitution in an amount to be determined at a later date.

    Shatara Hubbard, 36, of Warner Robins, Georgia, was sentenced to 6 years in prison followed by three years of supervised release and ordered to pay restitution in an amount to be determined at a later date.

    Torella Wynn, 33, of Cordele, Georgia, was sentenced to one year in prison followed by three years of supervised release and ordered to pay restitution in an amount to be determined at a later date.

    According to court documents and evidence presented in court, from March 2020 through November 2022, Doston, Hubbard, Wynn and their co-conspirators caused more than 5,000 fraudulent unemployment insurance (UI) claims to be filed with the GaDOL, resulting in at least $30 million in stolen benefits.

    To execute the scheme, the defendants and their co-conspirators created fictitious employers and fabricated lists of purported employees using personally identifiable information (PII) from thousands of identity theft victims and filed fraudulent unemployment insurance claims on the GaDOL website. The conspirators obtained PII for use in the scheme from a variety of sources, including by paying an employee of an Atlanta-area health care and hospital network to unlawfully obtain patients’ PII from the hospital’s databases, and by purchasing PII from other sources over the internet. Using victims’ PII, Doston, Hubbard, Wynn and their co-conspirators caused the stolen UI funds to be disbursed via prepaid debit cards mailed to various locations.

    “The defendants orchestrated a $30 million fraud by using stolen identities to obtain thousands of unemployment insurance payouts under false pretenses,” said Matthew R. Galeotti, Head of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division. “The Criminal Division will continue to aggressively combat complex frauds that waste public funds. I thank the prosecutors and our law enforcement partners for their diligence and dedication to seeking justice for the United States.” 

    “Macovian Doston, Shatara Hubbard, and Torella Wynn engaged in a scheme to defraud the GaDOL by creating several fictitious employer accounts. After creating the fictitious accounts, the defendants submitted thousands of fraudulent UI claims to GaDOL to obtain UI benefits in the names of identity theft victims and other unwitting individuals who were not entitled to such benefits. The identity theft victims and unwitting participants were purported employees of several fictitious companies, which were created to execute this fraud scheme. We will continue to work with our law enforcement partners to protect the integrity of the UI system from those who exploit this benefit program,” said Special Agent-in-Charge Mathew Broadhurst of the Southeast Region, U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Inspector General.

    “These sentences underline our dedication to holding people accountable who exploit federal relief programs for personal gain,” said Special Agent in Charge Jonathan Ulrich of the U.S. Postal Service Office of Inspector General. “As proven in this case, our criminal investigators and the legal teams at the Department of Justice will diligently pursue anyone who attempts to commit fraud and exploit programs created to help legitimate people and businesses affected by the global pandemic.”   

    “DHS OIG will continue to investigate the misuse of COVID pandemic funds and together with our law enforcement partners, hold fraudsters accountable.” said U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Inspector General Joseph V. Cuffari, PH.d.

    The court previously sentenced four other co-conspirators that were charged in the Nov. 8, 2022 indictment. In Oct. 2024, Tyshion Nautese Hicks, 32, of Vienna, Georgia was sentenced to 12 years in prison followed by three years of supervised release. In Sept. 2024, Kenya Whitehead, 37, of Cordele, Georgia was sentenced to 28 months in prison followed by three years of supervised release. In Oct. 2024, A’Darrion Alexander, 29, of Warner Robins, Georgia was sentenced to 18 months in prison followed by three years of supervised release. In May 2024, Membrish Brown, 29, of Vienna, Georgia was sentenced to 18 months in prison followed by three years of supervised release. 

    DOL-OIG, IRS-CI, USPS-OIG, USPIS, USSS, HSI, and DHS-OIG investigated the case.

    Trial Attorneys Lyndie Freeman, Siji Moore, Matthew Kahn, and Andrew Jaco of the Criminal Division’s Fraud Section prosecuted the case.

    On May 17, 2021, the Attorney General established the COVID-19 Fraud Enforcement Task Force to marshal the resources of the Department of Justice in partnership with agencies across government to enhance efforts to combat and prevent pandemic-related fraud. The Task Force bolsters efforts to investigate and prosecute the most culpable domestic and international criminal actors and assists agencies tasked with administering relief programs to prevent fraud by, augmenting and incorporating existing coordination mechanisms, identifying resources and techniques to uncover fraudulent actors and their schemes, and sharing and harnessing information and insights gained from prior enforcement efforts. For more information on the department’s response to the pandemic, please visit www.justice.gov/coronavirus.

    Anyone with information about allegations of attempted fraud involving COVID-19 can report it by calling the Department of Justice’s National Center for Disaster Fraud (NCDF) Hotline via the NCDF Web Complaint Form at www.justice.gov/disaster-fraud/ncdf-disaster-complaint-form. 

    MIL OSI USA News

  • MIL-OSI Security: Three Sentenced for $30 Million COVID-19 Unemployment Fraud

    Source: United States Department of Justice Criminal Division

    Three individuals were sentenced yesterday for their participation in a scheme to defraud the Georgia Department of Labor (GaDOL), out of tens of millions of dollars in benefits meant to assist unemployed individuals during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Macovian Doston, 31, of Vienna, Georgia, was sentenced to 15 years in prison followed by three years of supervised release and ordered to pay restitution in an amount to be determined at a later date.

    Shatara Hubbard, 36, of Warner Robins, Georgia, was sentenced to 6 years in prison followed by three years of supervised release and ordered to pay restitution in an amount to be determined at a later date.

    Torella Wynn, 33, of Cordele, Georgia, was sentenced to one year in prison followed by three years of supervised release and ordered to pay restitution in an amount to be determined at a later date.

    According to court documents and evidence presented in court, from March 2020 through November 2022, Doston, Hubbard, Wynn and their co-conspirators caused more than 5,000 fraudulent unemployment insurance (UI) claims to be filed with the GaDOL, resulting in at least $30 million in stolen benefits.

    To execute the scheme, the defendants and their co-conspirators created fictitious employers and fabricated lists of purported employees using personally identifiable information (PII) from thousands of identity theft victims and filed fraudulent unemployment insurance claims on the GaDOL website. The conspirators obtained PII for use in the scheme from a variety of sources, including by paying an employee of an Atlanta-area health care and hospital network to unlawfully obtain patients’ PII from the hospital’s databases, and by purchasing PII from other sources over the internet. Using victims’ PII, Doston, Hubbard, Wynn and their co-conspirators caused the stolen UI funds to be disbursed via prepaid debit cards mailed to various locations.

    “The defendants orchestrated a $30 million fraud by using stolen identities to obtain thousands of unemployment insurance payouts under false pretenses,” said Matthew R. Galeotti, Head of the Justice Department’s Criminal Division. “The Criminal Division will continue to aggressively combat complex frauds that waste public funds. I thank the prosecutors and our law enforcement partners for their diligence and dedication to seeking justice for the United States.” 

    “Macovian Doston, Shatara Hubbard, and Torella Wynn engaged in a scheme to defraud the GaDOL by creating several fictitious employer accounts. After creating the fictitious accounts, the defendants submitted thousands of fraudulent UI claims to GaDOL to obtain UI benefits in the names of identity theft victims and other unwitting individuals who were not entitled to such benefits. The identity theft victims and unwitting participants were purported employees of several fictitious companies, which were created to execute this fraud scheme. We will continue to work with our law enforcement partners to protect the integrity of the UI system from those who exploit this benefit program,” said Special Agent-in-Charge Mathew Broadhurst of the Southeast Region, U.S. Department of Labor, Office of Inspector General.

    “These sentences underline our dedication to holding people accountable who exploit federal relief programs for personal gain,” said Special Agent in Charge Jonathan Ulrich of the U.S. Postal Service Office of Inspector General. “As proven in this case, our criminal investigators and the legal teams at the Department of Justice will diligently pursue anyone who attempts to commit fraud and exploit programs created to help legitimate people and businesses affected by the global pandemic.”   

    “DHS OIG will continue to investigate the misuse of COVID pandemic funds and together with our law enforcement partners, hold fraudsters accountable.” said U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Inspector General Joseph V. Cuffari, PH.d.

    The court previously sentenced four other co-conspirators that were charged in the Nov. 8, 2022 indictment. In Oct. 2024, Tyshion Nautese Hicks, 32, of Vienna, Georgia was sentenced to 12 years in prison followed by three years of supervised release. In Sept. 2024, Kenya Whitehead, 37, of Cordele, Georgia was sentenced to 28 months in prison followed by three years of supervised release. In Oct. 2024, A’Darrion Alexander, 29, of Warner Robins, Georgia was sentenced to 18 months in prison followed by three years of supervised release. In May 2024, Membrish Brown, 29, of Vienna, Georgia was sentenced to 18 months in prison followed by three years of supervised release. 

    DOL-OIG, IRS-CI, USPS-OIG, USPIS, USSS, HSI, and DHS-OIG investigated the case.

    Trial Attorneys Lyndie Freeman, Siji Moore, Matthew Kahn, and Andrew Jaco of the Criminal Division’s Fraud Section prosecuted the case.

    On May 17, 2021, the Attorney General established the COVID-19 Fraud Enforcement Task Force to marshal the resources of the Department of Justice in partnership with agencies across government to enhance efforts to combat and prevent pandemic-related fraud. The Task Force bolsters efforts to investigate and prosecute the most culpable domestic and international criminal actors and assists agencies tasked with administering relief programs to prevent fraud by, augmenting and incorporating existing coordination mechanisms, identifying resources and techniques to uncover fraudulent actors and their schemes, and sharing and harnessing information and insights gained from prior enforcement efforts. For more information on the department’s response to the pandemic, please visit www.justice.gov/coronavirus.

    Anyone with information about allegations of attempted fraud involving COVID-19 can report it by calling the Department of Justice’s National Center for Disaster Fraud (NCDF) Hotline via the NCDF Web Complaint Form at www.justice.gov/disaster-fraud/ncdf-disaster-complaint-form

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Security: Man Charged in Connection With CARES Act Loan Fraud

    Source: Office of United States Attorneys

    DENVER – The United States Attorney’s Office for the District of Colorado announces that Joseph Ronald Trenkle, 54, formerly of Cherry Hills Village, Colorado and currently of Dorado, Puerto Rico, has been charged in a criminal information with one count each of wire fraud and money laundering.

    According to the information, between April 30, 2020, and February 25, 2022, Trenkle applied for and received $1,850,000 in COVID-19 Economic Injury Disaster Loans (EIDL) from the Small Business Administration (SBA) and $2,999,995 in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) funds from an SBA-approved lender.  The information alleges that after first obtaining an EIDL loan in March 2020, Trenkle made two requests to increase the amount of his EIDL and made false representations as part of each of request.  The information further alleges that Trenkle submitted two fraudulent PPP loan applications, and also submitted fraudulent applications for PPP loan forgiveness for each PPP loan.

    The Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act was enacted in March 2020 and was designed to provide emergency financial assistance to Americans dealing with the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.  The CARES Act created the PPP, a program administered by the SBA that provided loans to small businesses to retain workers, maintain payroll, and certain other expenses consistent with PPP rules.  Additionally, the CARES Act authorized the SBA to provide EIDLs to eligible small businesses experiencing substantial financial disruptions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The defendant made his initial appearance on May 22, 2025, in Denver in front of Magistrate Judge Cyrus Y. Chung.

    The charges contained in the information are allegations and the defendant is presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty.

    This case is being investigated by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Office of Inspector General, Internal Revenue Service Criminal Investigation, and Small Business Administration Office of Inspector General.  The case is being prosecuted by Assistant United States Attorney Craig Fansler.

    Anyone with information about allegations of attempted fraud involving COVID-19 can report it by calling the Department of Justice’s National Center for Disaster Fraud (NCDF) Hotline at 866-720-5721 or via the NCDF Web Complaint Form at: https://www.justice.gov/disaster-fraud/ncdf-disaster-complaint-form

    Case Number:                    25-cr-00150-RMR             

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Russia: Schoolchildren from Rostov-on-Don and Nalchik presented their works in the final of the competition “PROproekt”

    Translation. Region: Russian Federal

    Source: State University of Management – Official website of the State –

    As part of the final of the All-Russian competition of school projects “PROproject” at the State University of Management, teleconferences were held with schools in Rostov-on-Don and Nalchik with the organizational, informational and technical support of the Rostov-on-Don Education Department.

    Students from eight Rostov schools defended their works: MBOU “School No. 6”, MBOU “School No. 30”, MBOU “School No. 76”, MBOU “School No. 90”, MBOU “School No. 96”, MBOU “School No. 99”, MBOU “School No. 100”, MBOU “School No. 104”, and from two schools in the urban district of Nalchik, Kabardino-Balkarian Republic: MKOU “Secondary School No. 9”, MKOU “Lyceum No. 2”.

    The projects were presented in areas corresponding to the national development goals of the Russian Federation, in accordance with the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of May 7, 2024 No. 309: long and active life; family; youth and children; personnel; infrastructure for life; efficient transport system; environmental well-being; efficient and competitive economy; international cooperation and export; data economy and digital transformation of the state.

    The competition entries of the second stream of finalists were evaluated by the jury members: Deputy Director of the Center for Career Guidance at the State University of Management Andrey Kolchin, specialist of the Center for Career Guidance at the State University of Management Victoria Vrublevskaya, associate professor of the Department of Sociology, Psychology of Management and History Irina Shcherbakova, teachers of the Department of Project Management, as well as representatives of the Youth Association for Project Management Young Crew SOVNET: director Mikhail Zorin and marketing specialist Kamilla Bikkulova.

    The experts noted the high level of development of the projects: detailed business models, prototypes of the proposed technological solutions and the results of laboratory experiments were prepared.

    In particular, the following projects were presented in the final:

    An integrated approach to combating cybercrime Offenses using social engineering Implementation of an expanded digital platform for the project of the winner of the National Open Championship of Creative Competencies ArtMasters2024 – the shadow theater “Rose-colored Glasses” The contribution of natives of the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic to the military events of 1941-1945 3D printing technologies in the tourism industry Assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the country’s economy: problems, prospects and incentives Tracked all-terrain vehicle We are what we eat: the struggle of natural and synthetic dyes for human health The tourism industry of the Leningrad Region: prerequisites and development prospects The problem of romanticizing drugs in cinematography Age boundaries of young people as an object of sociological analysis The influence of psychological techniques of digital advertising on the formation of consumer behavior in the youth segment and others.

    Let us recall that in 2025, over 200 projects were submitted to the PROproject Competition, and 72 students from 37 general and vocational educational organizations (schools, lyceums, gymnasiums, colleges), as well as additional education institutions (technology parks, quantum centers, creativity centers, online schools) from 22 cities of the Russian Federation took part in the competition finals: Moscow, Obninsk, Ramenskoye, St. Petersburg, Orel, Lugansk, Shira village (Republic of Khakassia), Samara, Nizhny Novgorod, Ufa, Vsevolozhsk, Serpukhov, Perm, Borisoglebsk, Krasnoperekopsk, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Magnitogorsk, Mostovskoy urban-type settlement (Krasnodar Territory), Sergiev Posad, Nalchik, Rostov-on-Don.

    You can read about how the final went for the first group of participants in this article.

    Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.

    MIL OSI Russia News

  • MIL-OSI Security: Anchorage Businessman Agrees to Pay $397,990 for COVID-Relief Loan Fraud

    Source: US FBI

    ANCHORAGE – An Anchorage businessman has entered into a global resolution with the Office of the United States Attorney for the District of Alaska to resolve federal investigations into his fraudulently obtaining $164,000 in small business loans and advances under the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The global resolution includes a criminal non-prosecution agreement and civil settlement agreement.

    According to the settlement documents, Robert Gross, 65, submitted fraudulent and misleading information to obtain Economic Injury Disaster Loan Program (EIDL) loans and advances, a source of relief under the CARES Act. While applying for the EIDL program between April 6 and September 3, 2020, Gross made false statements about the revenue, number of employees and related wages of the six entities in which he had ownership interests, specifically:

    • Glacier State Services, Inc.
    • Bistro IT, LLC
    • RB Enterprises, LLC
    • Meritage Management Co.
    • AK Denali Group, LLC
    • 32 Mile Investments, LLC. 

    As part of the criminal non-prosecution agreement, Gross admitted making fraudulent statements and agreed to terms in lieu of criminal prosecution. In the civil settlement agreement, Gross agreed to repay the loans in full, plus damages in the amount of $242,990 to the United States.  

    “During a global pandemic, the defendant took advantage of aid programs designed as a lifeline providing critical relief for hardworking people in our communities impacted by COVID,” said Acting U.S. Attorney Bryan Wilson, District of Alaska. “Our office is committed to working with our law enforcement partners to hold accountable individuals who exploit the CARES Act.”

    “Making false statements to fraudulently gain access to SBA program funds is deplorable,” said SBA Office of Inspector General’s Western Region Special Agent in Charge Weston King. “SBA OIG will relentlessly pursue evidence of fraud against SBA’s programs aimed at assisting the nation’s small businesses struggling with the pandemic challenges. I want to thank the U.S. Attorney’s Office for its leadership and dedication to pursuing justice.”

    “While small businesses across the nation, including here in Alaska, continue to suffer due to the ongoing pandemic, the defendant chose to exploit the relief programs designed to help businesses in time of need,” said Special Agent in Charge Antony Jung of the FBI Anchorage Field Office. “The FBI and our federal partners will continue to work closely to detect and hold accountable those who take advantage of public health emergencies.”

    The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and the U.S. Small Business Administration (SBA), Office of Inspector General, Western Regional Office investigated the case.

    Assistant U.S. Attorneys John Fonstad and Michael Heyman prosecuted the case.

    Anyone with information about attempted fraud involving COVID-Relief can report it to the Department of Justice by calling the National Center for Disaster Fraud Hotline at 866-720-5721 or filing an online complaint form at www.justice.gov/disaster-fraud/ncdf-disaster-complaint-form

    The EIDL program is designed to provide economic relief to small businesses that are experiencing a temporary loss of revenue. EIDL program funds can be used to cover a wide array of working capital and normal operating expenses. The CARES Act was enacted on March 27, 2020, to provide emergency assistance to individuals, families and businesses affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Among other things the CARES Act simplified the EIDL program application process and allocated additional funding to the EIDL program.

    ###

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Security: Albany Man Sentenced to Prison for Pandemic Relief Fraud

    Source: US FBI

    ALBANY, NEW YORK – Scott Solomon, age 38, of Albany, was sentenced today to 13 months in prison, to be followed by 3 years of supervised release, for defrauding a loan program meant for businesses struggling with the financial effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

    United States Attorney Carla B. Freedman and Craig L. Tremaroli, Special Agent in Charge of the Albany Field Office of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), made the announcement.

    In previously pleading guilty to two counts of bank fraud, Solomon admitted that in 2020, he fraudulently applied for and obtained Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans for two restaurants in Saratoga Springs, New York, that he had once operated. Solomon submitted false and forged tax documents as part of each loan application, and lied about each restaurant’s number of employees and payroll.

    At the time Solomon applied for the loans, neither restaurant was operational, and Solomon used the loaned funds, totaling $163,993, in ways he knew were prohibited by the PPP. Solomon also fraudulently obtained forgiveness of one of the loans, in the amount of $87,500, by falsely telling the lender that he used the loaned funds for payroll.

    PPP loans, which were issued by financial institutions in 2020 and 2021 and guaranteed by the U.S. Small Business Administration, needed to be used by the borrowing business only on certain, permissible expenses, such as payroll costs, interest on mortgages, rent, and utilities. 

    Senior United States District Judge Frederick J. Scullin, Jr. also ordered Solomon to pay $163,993 in restitution and to forfeit that same amount as proceeds of his crimes.

    Solomon has two prior felony convictions for grand larceny, as well as a prior misdemeanor conviction for possession of a forged instrument.

    The FBI investigated this case and Assistant U.S. Attorney Michael Barnett prosecuted this case.

    On May 17, 2021, the Attorney General established the COVID-19 Fraud Enforcement Task Force to marshal the resources of the Department of Justice in partnership with agencies across government to enhance efforts to combat and prevent pandemic-related fraud. The Task Force bolsters efforts to investigate and prosecute the most culpable domestic and international criminal actors and assists agencies tasked with administering relief programs to prevent fraud by, among other methods, augmenting and incorporating existing coordination mechanisms, identifying resources and techniques to uncover fraudulent actors and their schemes, and sharing and harnessing information and insights gained from prior enforcement efforts. For more information on the Department’s response to the pandemic, please visit https://www.justice.gov/coronavirus.

    Anyone with information about allegations of attempted fraud involving COVID-19 can report it by calling the Department of Justice’s National Center for Disaster Fraud (NCDF) Hotline at 866-720-5721 or via the NCDF Web Complaint Form at: https://www.justice.gov/disaster-fraud/ncdf-disaster-complaint-form.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Security: Mountain Home Couple Plead Guilty to Charges in Connection with Obtaining COVID-19 Relief Funds

    Source: US FBI

    Fort Smith, Arkansas – David Clay Fowlkes, Acting United States Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas, announced that James Read, age 44, and his wife, Crystal Payne, age 42, both of Mountain Home, Arkansas, pleaded guilty to charges stemming from their attempts to obtaining pandemic relief funds unlawfully.  The Honorable Judge P. K. Holmes III accepted the pleas in the U.S. District Court in Fort Smith.

    According to the plea agreement in his case, Read applied to the Small Business Administration for Payment Protection Program (PPP) funds, which, as part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, are forgivable loans intended for businesses struggling with essential expenses, such as payroll, during the pandemic. In that application, Read provided inflated wage and employee data about his business, SnowbirdBob LLC, and provided falsified tax documents. He further admitted to laundering the PPP loan proceeds by purchasing a new vehicle.

    Read also pleaded guilty to one count of wire fraud for attempting to obtain unemployment benefits for himself and others in Louisiana. He falsely represented that he lived and worked in Louisiana to Louisiana’s state unemployment administrator.

    Payne pleaded guilty to a single count for false statements made in her own PPP loan application.

    Read and Payne’s sentencings will be later determined by the court, following the U.S. Probation Office’s completion of a presentence investigation.Based on his guilty plea, the maximum penalties Read faces include imprisonment for up to 30 years and a fine of up to $1,000,000.  Payne faces up to five years imprisonment and a fine of up to $250,000.

    The PPP allows qualifying small-businesses and other organizations to receive loans with a maturity of two years and an interest rate of 1%. PPP loan proceeds must be used by businesses on payroll costs, interest on mortgages, rent, and utilities. The PPP allows the interest and principal on the PPP loan to be forgiven if the business spends the loan proceeds on these expense items within a designated period of time after receiving the proceeds and uses at least a certain percentage of the PPP loan proceeds on payroll expenses. 

    The CARES Act is a federal law enacted on March 29, 2020, designed to provide emergency financial assistance to the millions of Americans who are suffering the economic effects caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. One source of relief provided by the CARES Act was the authorization of up to $349 billion in forgivable loans to small businesses for job retention and certain other expenses, through the PPP. In April 2020, Congress authorized over $300 billion in additional PPP funding.

    The case was investigated by IRS-Criminal Investigations, the Federal Bureau of Investigations, the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA), and the Small Business Administration Office of the Inspector General. Assistant United States Attorney Hunter Bridges is prosecuting the case for the United States.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Security: FBI Defeats U.S. Secret Service in Charity Hockey Game

    Source: US FBI

    The FBI won a hard-fought game against its longtime hockey rivals, the U.S. Secret Service, on Saturday night. Most importantly, the game was expected to raise around $20,000 for families of fallen law enforcement officers.

    Despite falling behind early, the FBI’s team rallied to win, 3-2.

    “It was a good, hard-fought battle. It’s always back and forth between our two teams. We know they’re a fast team; so we like to weather the storm with them…We fought back, got a couple goals in the third and took it to them and won,” said Kevin Weinstock, who skates for the FBI team even though he recently left the agency.

    While the on-ice action at Medstar Capitals Iceplex in Arlington, Virginia provided plenty of excitement, two special four-legged visitors stole the show. The FBI’s victim assistance dog, Wally, and retired Secret Service dog, Hurricane, both made appearances at the game. Hurricane participated in the ceremonial puck drop between U.S. Secret Service Chief Operating Officer George Mulligan and FBI Director Christopher Wray.

    The hockey rivalry was put on hold last year, in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. The previously annual tradition dates back to the early 2000s, when then-FBI Director Robert S. Mueller, III, a former hockey player, used to skate with the team in warmups.

    For both the players and the fans, the game offers an opportunity to support their agencies outside of the grueling demands of a typical workday, Weinstock said.

    “I think it gives employees a fun, social event that relates to work, but it’s outside of it,” he said. “It’s something fun you can feel a part of supporting your team.”

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI United Nations: 23 May 2025 Departmental update The World Health Assembly endorses the extension of the Global Strategy on Digital Health to 2027 and approves the next phase for 2028–2033

    Source: World Health Organisation

    Digital health is not about applications, platforms, or devices. It’s about transforming how health systems serve people—more equitably, more effectively, and with greater attention to individual needs.

    Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus / WHO Director-General

    Originally endorsed at the Seventy-third World Health Assembly (WHA73) in 2020, the strategy has catalyzed significant progress in equitable digital health implementation across all WHO regions. Key advancements include advancement in the development of national digital health strategies, strengthened collaboration through regional frameworks, enhanced cross-border interoperability, the establishment of guidance and governance on artificial intelligence, and improvements in health information systems. Digital health has also gained sustained global attention, having been included in the agendas of five consecutive G20 presidencies.

    Since the Strategy’s launch, countries and partners have made substantial progress:

    • 129 countries have established national digital health strategies.
    • Over 1,600 government officials from more than 100 countries have received training in digital health and artificial intelligence.
    • Transformative initiatives such as the Global Digital Health Certification Network have been launched, benefiting 1.8 billion people across 80 countries.
    • Critical guidance on artificial intelligence in health has been issued, including the Ethics and Governance of Artificial Intelligence for Health, with global workshops supporting Member States in ethical AI implementation.
    • 130 Member States have conducted digital health maturity assessments using the Global Digital Health Monitor.
    • Government-to-government collaboration on digital health has been established in four WHO regions, with 40 Member States joining the Global Digital Health Partnership.
    • Global collaboration has been strengthened through the Global Initiative on Digital Health, the WHO Innovation Hub and regional frameworks led by WHO, ITU, the African Union, PAHO and other key partners.

    “This extension is not just about adding two more years—it’s about accelerating action. With a renewed mandate extending from 2028 to 2033, we are entering a critical phase where digital health must be purposefully scaled and equitably integrated into every health system. From AI to telehealth, we have the tools; now we must ensure they reach and benefit everyone,” Dr Alain Labrique, Director of WHO’s Department of Digital Health and Innovation.

    With digital health set to play an increasingly central role in universal health coverage, pandemic preparedness, and climate-resilient systems, this extension reaffirms the shared commitment of WHO and its Member States for inclusive, ethical and sustainable digital transformation.

    “,”datePublished”:”2025-05-23T07:48:42.0000000+00:00″,”image”:”https://cdn.who.int/media/images/default-source/topics/health-systems-and-interventions/digital-health/wha-assembly.jpg?sfvrsn=2b149a22_4″,”publisher”:{“@type”:”Organization”,”name”:”World Health Organization: WHO”,”logo”:{“@type”:”ImageObject”,”url”:”https://www.who.int/Images/SchemaOrg/schemaOrgLogo.jpg”,”width”:250,”height”:60}},”dateModified”:”2025-05-23T07:48:42.0000000+00:00″,”mainEntityOfPage”:”https://www.who.int/news/item/23-05-2025-world-health-assembly-endorses-extension-of-the-global-digital-health-strategy-to-2027″,”@context”:”http://schema.org”,”@type”:”NewsArticle”};
    ]]>

    MIL OSI United Nations News

  • MIL-OSI: Brookfield Corporation Announces Renewal of Normal Course Issuer Bid

    Source: GlobeNewswire (MIL-OSI)

    BROOKFIELD, NEWS, May 23, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Brookfield Corporation (“Brookfield”) (NYSE: BN, TSX: BN) today announced it has received approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) for the renewal of its normal course issuer bid to purchase up to 143,027,158 Class A Limited Voting Shares (“Class A Shares”), representing 10% of the public float of Brookfield’s outstanding Class A Shares. Purchases under the bid will be made on the open market through the facilities of the TSX, the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”), and/or alternative trading systems. The period of the normal course issuer bid will extend from May 27, 2025 to May 26, 2026, or an earlier date should Brookfield complete its purchases. Brookfield will pay the market price at the time of acquisition for any Class A Shares purchased or such other price as may be permitted.

    As at May 15, 2025, the number of Class A Shares issued and outstanding totaled 1,647,846,059 of which 1,430,271,580 shares represented the public float. In accordance with the rules of the TSX, the maximum daily purchase on the TSX under this bid will be 456,420 Class A Shares, which is 25% of 1,825,680 (the average daily trading volume for Class A Shares on the TSX for the six months ended April 30, 2025).

    Of the 142,988,844 Class A Shares approved for purchase under Brookfield’s prior normal course issuer bid that commenced on May 27, 2024 and will expire on May 26, 2025, Brookfield purchased 22,200,979 Class A Shares as of May 15, 2025; 2,835,555 Class A Shares through open market purchases on the TSX and 19,365,424 Class A Shares through open market purchases on the NYSE. The weighted average price that Brookfield paid per Class A Share acquired under this bid was US$51.20.

    Brookfield is renewing its normal course issuer bid because it believes that, from time to time, the market price of its Class A Shares may not fully reflect the underlying value of its business and its future business prospects. Brookfield believes that, in such circumstances, the outstanding Class A Shares represent an attractive investment for Brookfield, since a portion of its excess cash generated on an annual basis can be invested for an attractive risk adjusted return through the issuer bid. All Class A Shares acquired by Brookfield under this bid will be cancelled and/or purchased by a non-independent trustee pursuant to the terms of Brookfield’s long-term incentive plans.

    Brookfield intends to enter into an automatic share purchase plan on or about the week of June 16, 2025 in relation to the normal course issuer bid. The automatic share purchase plan will allow for the purchase of Class A Shares, subject to certain trading parameters, at times when Brookfield ordinarily would not be active in the market due to its own internal trading black-out period, insider trading rules or otherwise. Outside of these periods, Class A Shares will be repurchased in accordance with management’s discretion and in compliance with applicable law.

    About Brookfield Corporation

    Brookfield Corporation is a leading global investment firm focused on building long-term wealth for institutions and individuals around the world. We have three core businesses: Alternative Asset Management, Wealth Solutions, and our Operating Businesses which are in renewable power, infrastructure, business and industrial services, and real estate.

    We have a track record of delivering 15%+ annualized returns to shareholders for over 30 years, supported by our unrivaled investment and operational experience. Our conservatively managed balance sheet, extensive operational experience, and global sourcing networks allow us to consistently access unique opportunities. At the center of our success is the Brookfield Ecosystem, which is based on the fundamental principle that each group within Brookfield benefits from being part of the broader organization. Brookfield Corporation is publicly traded in New York and Toronto (NYSE: BN, TSX: BN).

    Please note that Brookfield Corporation’s previous audited annual and unaudited quarterly reports have been filed on EDGAR and SEDAR+ and can also be found in the investor section of its website at www.brookfield.com. Hard copies of the annual and quarterly reports can be obtained free of charge upon request.

    For more information, please visit our website at www.bn.brookfield.com or contact:                           

    Media: Investor Relations:
    Kerrie McHugh Katie Battaglia
    Tel: (212) 618-3469 Tel: (416) 359-8544
    Email: kerrie.mchugh@brookfield.com Email: katie.battaglia@brookfield.com


    Forward-Looking Statements

    This news release contains “forward-looking information” within the meaning of Canadian provincial securities laws and “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, “safe harbor” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and in any applicable Canadian securities regulations (collectively, “forward-looking statements”). Forward- looking statements include statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future results, events or conditions, and include, but are not limited to, statements which reflect management’s current estimates, beliefs and assumptions regarding the operations, business, financial condition, expected financial results, performance, prospects, opportunities, priorities, targets, goals, ongoing objectives, strategies, capital management and outlook of Brookfield Corporation and its subsidiaries, as well as the outlook for North American and international economies for the current fiscal year and subsequent periods, and which in turn are based on our experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions and expected future developments, as well as other factors management believes are appropriate in the circumstances. The estimates, beliefs and assumptions of Brookfield Corporation are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive and other uncertainties and contingencies regarding future events and as such, are subject to change. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “expect,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “foresee,” “could,” “estimate,” “goal,” “intend,” “plan,” “seek,” “strive,” “will,” “may” and “should” and similar expressions. In particular, the forward-looking statements contained in this news release include statements referring to the impact of current market or economic conditions on our business, the future state of the economy or the securities market, the anticipated allocation and deployment of our capital, our fundraising targets, and our target growth objectives.

    Although Brookfield Corporation believes that such forward-looking statements are based upon reasonable estimates, beliefs and assumptions, actual results may differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated or implied by forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to: (i) returns that are lower than target; (ii) the impact or unanticipated impact of general economic, political and market factors in the countries in which we do business; (iii) the behavior of financial markets, including fluctuations in interest and foreign exchange rates and heightened inflationary pressures; (iv) global equity and capital markets and the availability of equity and debt financing and refinancing within these markets; (v) strategic actions including acquisitions and dispositions; the ability to complete and effectively integrate acquisitions into existing operations and the ability to attain expected benefits; (vi) changes in accounting policies and methods used to report financial condition (including uncertainties associated with critical accounting assumptions and estimates); (vii) the ability to appropriately manage human capital; (viii) the effect of applying future accounting changes; (ix) business competition; (x) operational and reputational risks; (xi) technological change; (xii) changes in government regulation and legislation within the countries in which we operate; (xiii) governmental investigations and sanctions; (xiv) litigation; (xv) changes in tax laws; (xvi) ability to collect amounts owed; (xvii) catastrophic events, such as earthquakes, hurricanes and epidemics/pandemics; (xviii) the possible impact of international conflicts and other developments including terrorist acts and cyberterrorism; (xix) the introduction, withdrawal, success and timing of business initiatives and strategies; (xx) the failure of effective disclosure controls and procedures and internal controls over financial reporting and other risks; (xxi) health, safety and environmental risks; (xxii) the maintenance of adequate insurance coverage; (xxiii) the existence of information barriers between certain businesses within our asset management operations; (xxiv) risks specific to our business segments including asset management, wealth solutions, renewable power and transition, infrastructure, private equity, real estate and corporate activities; and (xxv) factors detailed from time to time in our documents filed with the securities regulators in Canada and the United States.

    We caution that the foregoing list of important factors that may affect future results is not exhaustive and other factors could also adversely affect future results. Readers are urged to consider these risks, as well as other uncertainties, factors and assumptions carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on such forward-looking statements, which are based only on information available to us as of the date of this news release or such other date specified herein. Except as required by law, Brookfield Corporation undertakes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward- looking statements, whether written or oral, that may be as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

    The MIL Network

  • MIL-OSI Security: Three from Northwest Arkansas Plead Guilty to Making False Statements to Obtain Coronavirus Relief Funds

    Source: US FBI

    Fayetteville, Arkansas – David Clay Fowlkes, First Assistant United States Attorney for the Western District of Arkansas, announced that Melvin Stout, age 40, of Fayetteville, AR, pleaded guilty today to making a false statement on a loan application to obtain money through the Small Business Administration’s Paycheck Protection Program (PPP).  Earlier this month, Stout’s wife, Tiffany Acuff, age 36, of Fayetteville, and sister, Valarie Watson, age 43, of Fayetteville, also pleaded to charges in connection with obtaining loans through the PPP, which is intended for businesses struggling through the coronavirus pandemic.  

    The program, which provides low-interest, forgivable loans for businesses who use the funds for essential business expenses, such as payroll, is part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, passed in March 2020.

    According to the plea agreements in each case, Stout, Acuff, and Watson submitted PPP loan applications that falsely represented their ownership of small businesses, which they alleged were eligible for PPP funds. Stout, was approved and received $9,400.00, Acuff, was approved and received $20,800.00, while Watson, applied for $20,800.00, but was declined. Along with the applications, the defendants submitted falsified tax documents and business receipts.  None of the defendants owned the businesses listed in the applications. 

    Stout, Acuff, and Watson’s sentencings will be determined by the court at a later date, following the U.S. Probation Office’s completion of a presentence investigation. Based on their guilty pleas, the maximum penalties for each defendant include imprisonment for up to five years and a fine of up to $250,000.

    The case was investigated by IRS, the FBI, and the Treasury Inspector General for Tax Administration (TIGTA). Assistant United States Attorney Hunter Bridges is prosecuting the case for the United States.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Security: Fourteen Defendants Indicted in $5 Million California State Unemployment Fraud Scheme

    Source: US FBI

    NEWS RELEASE SUMMARY – November 16, 2023

    SAN DIEGO – An indictment partially unsealed today charges 14 defendants with fraud and money laundering offenses for a scheme centered around fraudulent unemployment applications submitted to the California Employment Development Department during the pandemic. The indictment alleges the fraud netted the defendants almost $5.2 million in funds from the state of California.

    According to the indictment, David Constantin and Constantin Bobi Sandu, who was arrested and charged separately in March 2023, helped hundreds of applicants apply for EDD benefits using fraudulent documents. Constantin and Sandu recruited potential applicants through Facebook and met applicants at parks throughout Southern California to complete the application process. Applicants paid Constantin or Sandu a partial fee up front for assisting with fraudulent applications and another fee after applicants received EDD payments.

    The indictment alleges that from July 2020 to August 2022, Constantin transmitted more than $128,000 in fraud proceeds to associates in Romania. Another defendant who fraudulently obtained EDD benefits with Constantin’s help, Eduard Buse, transmitted almost $129,000 to Romania in the same period. Buse also purchased a 2020 BMW X6 with over $105,000 in cash fraud proceeds in December 2022 and shipped the vehicle to Romania. Several other defendants also transmitted fraud proceeds to accounts in Romania.

    David Constantin was arrested in Romania at the request of the United States on November 13th by Romanian authorities who also served search warrants and seized, among other things, the BMW with California license plates. The Department of Justice will seek Constantin’s extradition to the United States. Buse and defendants Leonard Miclescu, Constantin Iosif Constantin and Florentina Sima were arrested in California and Texas. Nine other defendants remain at large.

    This case is being prosecuted by Assistant U.S. Attorneys Jessica Adeline Schulberg and Valerie Chu with assistance from the Department of Justice’s Office of International Affairs, FBI’s Legal Attaché in Bucharest, and Romanian authorities including the Directorate for Combating Organized Crime (DCCO) Service for Countering of Organized Criminal Groups, Brigade for Combating Organized Crime (BCCO) – Pitești, County Service for Countering Organized Crime – Teleorman, Romanian Gendarmerie Battalion, Romanian Ministry of Justice, and Romanian Criminal Investigative Directorate – Fugitive Unit.

    DEFENDANTS                                             Case Number 23CR2090-LAB                                

    David Constantin                                            Age: 27                                   Arges County, Romania

    aka Vlad Alexandru                           

    Eduard Buse                                                    Age: 30                                   Transient, Romanian

    Leonard Miclescu                                           Age: 49                                   Transient, Romanian

    Constantin Iosif Constantin                            Age: 30                                   Transient, Romanian

    Florentina Sima                                              Age: 29                                   Transient, Romanian

    *Additional defendants are not in custody and their names are redacted

    SUMMARY OF CHARGES

    Title 18, U.S.C. § 1349 — Conspiracy to Commit Wire Fraud

    Title 18, U.S.C. § 1343 — Wire Fraud

    Maximum penalty: Thirty years in prison, $1 million fine

    Title 18 U.S.C. § 1956(h) — Conspiracy to Launder Monetary Instruments

    Title 18 U.S.C. § 1956(a)(2)(A) — Laundering of Monetary Instruments

    Title 18 U.S.C. § 1956(a)(2)(B)(i) — Laundering of Monetary Instruments

    Maximum penalty: Twenty years in prison and $500,000 fine or twice the value of the monetary instrument or funds involved in the transportation, transmission, or transfer, whichever is greater

    AGENCY

    Federal Bureau of Investigation

    San Diego Police Department Economic Crimes Unit

    IRS Criminal Investigation

    California Employment Development Department Investigative Division

    Department of Labor Office of Inspector General

    U.S. Department of Homeland Security

    *The charges and allegations contained in an indictment or complaint are merely accusations, and the defendants are considered innocent unless and until proven guilty.

    MIL Security OSI

  • MIL-OSI Security: Four Arizona Swindlers Sentenced for Paycheck Protection Program Fraud

    Source: US FBI

    PHOENIX, Ariz. – Four Arizona residents were sentenced to significant prison terms in connection with their schemes to fraudulently obtain millions of dollars in Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans, a federal loan initiative designed to help businesses pay their employees and meet expenses during the COVID-19 pandemic. All four defendants, Willie Mitchell, Sean Swaringer, Kimberly Coleman, and Jason Coleman pleaded guilty to Bank Fraud.

    They were each sentenced as follows:

    • Willie Mitchell, aka Blu Mitchell, 41, of Phoenix, Arizona, was sentenced on February 6, 2023, by United States District Judge G. Murray Snow to 97 months in prison.
    • Sean Swaringer, 57, of Peoria, Arizona, was sentenced on April 4, 2023, by United States District Judge Steven P. Logan to 121 months in prison.
    • Kimberly Coleman, 39, of Mesa, Arizona, was sentenced on April 10, 2023, by Judge Logan to 120 months in prison.
    • Jason Coleman, 41, of Mesa, Arizona, was sentenced on May 15, 2023, by Judge Logan to 60 months in prison.

    In addition to their respective prison terms, all four defendants also were ordered to serve five years of supervised release.

    Mitchell, working with others, fraudulently obtained seven PPP loans totaling $9,470,900. He purchased a vehicle, multiple properties, and vacations with the PPP funds.

    Swaringer obtained four fraudulent PPP loans totaling more than $1.5 million on behalf of two entities: Cryotherapy for Veterans and Cryoworld Therapy, LLC. In addition to his own loans, Swaringer also recruited more than 10 individuals to apply for fraudulent PPP loans. He assisted in preparing and submitting their PPP applications in exchange for kickbacks from their PPP loan proceeds. Swaringer was ordered to pay more than $3.8 million in restitution for his own loans and the kickbacks from at least 15 other PPP loans. Swaringer purchased jewelry, vehicles, vacations, and real estate with the fraudulent funds.

    Kimberly Coleman and her husband, Jason Coleman, collectively prepared and submitted approximately two dozen fraudulent PPP loan applications in an attempt to receive more than $30 million in PPP funds. They were successful in at least 10 of those submissions and fraudulently obtained more than $13 million in PPP funds. The Colemans’ purchases included luxury vehicles and real estate properties, personal property from several high-end retail outlets, vacation, and jewelry.

    The Federal Bureau of Investigation led the investigation in these cases, with significant assistance from Internal Revenue Service – Criminal Investigation, Homeland Security Investigations, and the Small Business Administration-Office of the Inspector General. The United States Attorney’s Office, District of Arizona, Phoenix, handled the prosecutions.

    CASE NUMBERS:         CR21-00977-001-PHX-GMS
                                              CR21-00981-001-PHX-SPL
                                              CR21-00975-002-PHX-SPL
                                              CR21-00975-001-PHX-SPL
    RELEASE NUMBER:    2023-088_Mitchell-Swaringer-Coleman

    # # #

    For more information on the U.S. Attorney’s Office, District of Arizona, visit http://www.justice.gov/usao/az/
    Follow the U.S. Attorney’s Office, District of Arizona, on Twitter @USAO_AZ for the latest news.

    MIL Security OSI