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Category: Politics

  • MIL-OSI Asia-Pac: Post event press release of Chennai roadshow held on 5th February, 2025

    Source: Government of India

    Posted On: 06 FEB 2025 9:29AM by PIB Delhi

    The Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region (MDoNER) hosted the North East Trade and Investment Roadshow in Chennai today. The roadshow evoked strong interest from potential investors who are eager to explore opportunities in the North Eastern States. The event was attended by the Hon’ble Minister, Ministry of Development of North Eastern Region & Ministry of Communications, Shri Jyotiraditya M. Scindia, alongwith Pu Lalnghinglova Hmar, Hon’ble Minister of Sports & Youth Services, Government of Mizoram, senior officials from MDoNER, North Eastern Council and North Eastern States.

    Hon’ble Minister, MDoNER mentioned that Hon’ble Prime Minister emphasized North East as India’s Asthalakshmi, a key economic asset poised for rapid industrialization. He highlighted the major development initiatives in the infrastructure sector that have taken place in the North Eastern Region under the leadership of Hon’ble Prime Minister during the last 10 years, inter-alia, including expanding air, road and rail connectivity, waterways etc. Hon’ble Minister MDoNER stated that each of the eight states of the North East embodies unique strengths, resources and opportunities, making this region an invaluable asset in India’s growth story. From its rich cultural diversity to its natural beauty and strategic location, the North Eastern Region holds immense potential to emerge as one of the country’s leading economic powerhouses. Its proximity to Southeast Asia also positions the North Eastern Region as a gateway to South East Asian countries, aligning perfectly with India’s Act East Policy. He also highlighted the potential of North Eastern States in various sectors such as Tourism & hospitality, Agri and allied industries, healthcare, entertainment & sports, infrastructure & logistics, IT & ITeS, Textiles, Handloom & Handicrafts, energy etc. He assured investors that the region’s youth, high literacy rates, and abundant natural resources make it an ideal destination for investment. Hon’ble Minister expressed his admiration for Chennai, calling it a “thriving IT powerhouse and a cradle of economic growth for India”. He acknowledged the city’s rich heritage, cutting-edge technology, and robust industrial ecosystem, drawing parallels between Chennai’s potential and North East India’s emerging economic landscape. Highlighting the North East India’s strengths in agriculture, food processing, tourism, and manufacturing, he urged Chennai’s entrepreneurs to invest in these sectors. He also underlined that North East holds 38% of India’s bamboo resources which offers great opportunity to furniture industry of Chennai. Further, the large untapped hydrocarbon reserves and hydropower generation potential of the North Eastern Region waiting to be harnessed. In his concluding remarks he invited investors to the North Eastern Region and play a key role in shaping the future of the region.

    Hon’ble Minister of Sports & Youth Services, Govt. of Mizoram in his address highlighted Mizoram’s immense investment opportunities despite being a small state with a population of just 11 lakh. He stated that with 55% of its land under horticulture, Mizoram produces GI-tagged ginger and chillies, along with mandarin oranges, papaya, and dragon fruit, offering significant potential in agriculture and food processing. The State is rich in bamboo cultivation, which still remains largely untapped. He also underlined that Mizoram is also positioning itself as a sports powerhouse and is aligned with India’s 2036 Olympic vision. Mizoram has also produced top sportspersons, therefore, the sports sector has great potential for investment. He also urged investors to explore other sectors such as tourism, infrastructure, food processing etc. for investment in the State of Mizoram.

    Shri Chanchal Kumar, Secretary, MDoNER in his address highlighted the immense investment potential of the North East, calling it a hub of innovation, cultural heritage, and economic opportunity. With breathtaking landscapes and a thriving tourism sector, the region has become increasingly attractive for investors. He highlighted that over the last 10 years, connectivity of the region has been transformed whether it is road, rail, air, water, and digital. The region’s economic growth has outpaced the national average, making it an ideal destination for businesses. Further, the North Eastern States have tailored, attractive policies aligned with the Central Government to encourage investment. He informed that Government has identified eight tourism sites to be developed as model tourist destinations across each of the North Eastern States through PPP mode.  He also underlined that IT & ITeS sector is growing faster in the North Eastern Region. Further, the agriculture and allied sectors offers unique products with immense economic potential. He stated that UNNATI scheme launched by Government of India provides attractive incentives for investment in the North Eastern Region. He also mentioned that with trilateral highways and the Kaladan project, the North East is set to become a key hub for medical tourism, catering to over 60 million people from neighbouring countries. The single-window system across the North Eastern States ensures ease of doing business. He urged the investors to visit, explore, and partner in North East India’s transformation.

    Shri Shantanu, Joint Secretary, MDoNER, in his address on advantage North East and Opportunities for Investment and Trade emphasized that North Eastern Region has rich untapped potential. He informed that during the last 10 years there is a remarkable improvement in connectivity to the North Eastern Region whether it’s air, rail, road or waterways. Over the past decade, the government has successfully completed numerous pending projects, benefiting local communities and millions of people through various schemes/initiatives. He stated that North East Region’s enabling infrastructure, strategic connectivity, higher working age population and an english-speaking workforce, makes it ideal for businesses targeting Southeast Asian markets.  He also highlighted the opportunities in the region in various sectors like IT & ITES, Healthcare, Agri and allied, Education & Skill Development, Sports & Entertainment, Tourism & Hospitality, Infrastructure and logistics; Textiles, Handlooms and Handicrafts and Energy. He stated that with ample opportunities across multiple sectors, North East India welcomes investors to explore its vast potential and be part of its growth journey.

    The representative of Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT), under the Ministry of Commerce & Industry, gave a detailed presentation on the UNNATI Scheme, providing attendees with a comprehensive understanding of its benefits and associated incentives. He underlined that the UNNATI Scheme aims to boost industrialisation and economic growth in North East India. The scheme offers incentives to attract investors and manufacturing companies, supports the ‘Act East Policy,’ and promotes domestic manufacturing and services to reduce import dependence and enhance exports.

    Senior officials representing the North Eastern States shared actionable insights about the emerging opportunities across various sectors. The Chennai roadshow drew strong participation from industry leaders, further reinforcing the investment appeal of North East India. The event also featured several B2G meetings, providing investors with a platform to discuss their investment plans in the North Eastern Region.

    The Chennai roadshow concluded on a positive note, with participants expressing keen interest in exploring collaborative ventures in the North Eastern Region. The event not only fostered meaningful dialogue but also laid the groundwork for future partnerships, driving economic growth and sustainable development in the region. The event marked another milestone in a series of successful roadshows across India and showcased the untapped potential of North East India.

    *****

    Samrat/Dheeraj

    donerpib[at]gmail[dot]com

    (Release ID: 2100164) Visitor Counter : 51

    MIL OSI Asia Pacific News –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Piero Cipollone: Interview with Reuters

    Source: European Central Bank

    Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa

    6 February 2025

    The ECB has said that the direction of travel for monetary policy is clear, but the timing and extent of moves is not. What does this guidance mean to you?

    We are moving towards the target. The direction of inflation is clear, despite some small bumps. All incoming information points to a convergence with the target in 2025 and this is what our models are also telling us.

    Our models include market expectations for the interest rate path, so this convergence with the inflation target is coherent with a declining interest rate path.

    Everything is of course contingent on the information at the time of the forecasts, and we will have a new forecast round in March. Before then, we’ll get another inflation print, we’ll have more details on the composition of inflation, and all these feed into the model, as do market expectations for interest rates.

    Does that mean implicitly that you are comfortable with market expectations for further rate cuts as they are embedded in the projections?

    That was conditional on the information we had in December. I am comfortable as long as that path takes us to the target in the medium term in a sustainable way.

    What does the data since that December meeting tell you?

    Overall, I think the direction is the same. I don’t see huge changes in our view, except trade tensions. The overall understanding of where we are going is there, the fundamentals haven’t changed, so I do not expect a big change in direction.

    One thing that might happen is a trade war with the United States. How would that affect your thinking?

    It depends on details such as whether we retaliate, precisely what these tariffs are going to be levied on, and how China is affected.

    If tariffs are imposed on us, the most immediate impact will be on growth.

    The price of goods will be higher in the United States. Who is going to absorb the cost? It could be that European companies, in order to defend their market share, might be willing to sacrifice a bit of their margin in order to stay in the market. We have seen this many times and European firms have a great ability to adjust. Part of this sacrifice might be recovered through the exchange rate. So, in the end, the overall impact may not be that big.

    What concerns me more is if President Trump engages in a full trade war with China. This is a more serious threat because China has 35% of the world’s manufacturing capacity. Trade barriers will force China to sell its goods elsewhere and the competition from China could be a serious threat to us. These goods showing up in Europe could have both a deflationary and a contractionary impact because they would crowd out local products.

    The uncertainty is exceptionally high, everything is in motion. And we can’t assess where it’s all going until things fall in place.

    It’s true we have a goods surplus with the United States. But if you add in services and look at the overall current account, then the balance is close to zero.

    Looking at the very short term, can you support a rate cut in March, as some of your colleagues are already saying?

    I don’t want to seem elusive, but the uncertainty is so high that anything can happen. We all agree there is still room for adjusting rates downwards. But we need to be extremely careful. It’s important to stress this idea of a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach. I want to enter the meeting with an open mind, see the staff assessment and process incoming data.

    But we also all agree that we are still in a restrictive territory.

    Suppose tariffs on China stay, that’s a huge demand shock. On the other hand, we have energy prices moving upwards. It could be a transitory phenomenon, but what if this is more entrenched?

    How far are we from the neutral rate and why has the neutral gone up?

    When you have an estimate range that is 50 or 75 basis points, then it’s a conceptual tool and doesn’t have much bearing on policy, given the high uncertainty. Take estimates that it is between 1.75% and 2.25%. Those are two completely different monetary policies, if you are close to target. It’s such a wide range that one number could imply that you are undershooting and another that you are overshooting. So “neutral” is a very powerful analytical concept but not terribly useful for setting monetary policy, given this embedded uncertainty.

    It’s possible this rate went up but it’s also possible it stayed unchanged given how wide the band is.

    You say you are clearly restrictive now. Would that still apply after the next cut? When does the debate start on when restrictive ends?

    We are almost on target. The closer you get to target, the less you’ll need to stay restrictive.

    It’s also true we have been overly optimistic on growth and had to cut our growth forecasts three times since June. So, it is possible that the recovery is not as strong as expected and thus the inflationary pressure coming from demand is weaker. This could prompt us to reassess our concept of restrictiveness.

    Could this mean that you need to become accommodative to avoid an undershoot?

    I assess the risk around inflation to be balanced and I don’t have evidence of a possible undershoot. Long-term inflation expectations are also very well anchored.

    The latest information, especially the rise in the cost of energy, makes me think that we should be prudent. It might be a transitory phenomenon, but prices have risen substantially. Consumer expectations have also gone up a little as they are very reactive to short-term developments.

    I’m not saying that risks are moving towards being on the upside, but we have no evidence of undershooting either.

    Do the growth revisions suggest fundamental changes in how the economy functions?

    Growth has been disappointing, especially because of investments. Consumption may have been less buoyant than we thought, but it remains broadly on the path that we are expecting. The fundamentals for rising consumption are there. Real incomes are increasing, employment is high, inflation is declining and consumer confidence is holding steady.

    The real problem is investments, and that is only partially linked to monetary policy. The culprit is uncertainty. Investments have been weak since the summer given the overall uncertainty and the direction of trade policy after the US election.

    My sense is that people are holding out before making important investment decisions. There is of course a cost component related to interest rates. But you see that people are investing just to replace old capital stock.

    What can the ECB do about it?

    We have to take care of the cost component and avoid being unduly restrictive. Our goal should be to have the economy growing close to potential and to contribute to reducing uncertainty as much as possible.

    Could another targeted longer-term refinancing operation help investments?

    It doesn’t seem to me that the lack of available funding is the issue. We have seen some tightening of credit conditions but that’s not the key factor here.

    Last week we were talking about a 25% tariff, today not anymore, and tomorrow we don’t know. All companies are trying to understand where it’s all going so that they can make investment decisions.

    How does this uncertainty affect the labour market?

    There could be some softening of the labour market but overall we have been positively surprised. We went through a huge disinflation process with a very strong labour market.

    Labour hoarding has two dimensions. One is the cost. Overall, the cost is still relatively low because, by some measures, real wages are still below the pre-pandemic level. The second reason is that firms are afraid of losing skilled labour and this is still the case.

    The labour market is softening, however. The problem is manufacturing essentially. But even there we see some light at the end of the tunnel. There seem to be some initial signs of recovery in the Purchasing Managers’ Index and the Economic Sentiment Indicator. I was surprised to see that confidence in the construction sector and manufacturing activity have bottomed out, and we see some possible signs of recovery. Services are holding up overall. If there is some softening in terms of demand for labour, possibly there will be a pick-up in productivity which will reduce the unit labour cost overall. We obviously need to monitor it because, with all this uncertainty, we could see a deterioration. But I am not overly concerned about the labour market.

    Adding up what you said about these modest signs of recovery in manufacturing, does that mean you still believe in the soft-landing narrative and you don’t see a recession?

    We might not be booming but I am not expecting a recession at all. I think consumption will slowly go up because the fundamentals are there, labour income is growing, the cost of borrowing is declining, inflation is declining, and consumer confidence is basically holding up, so it’s possible that the savings rate will decline from a historic high. So, overall, I think consumption will keep going – and that is a big chunk of the economy. Investment should recover too, as soon as all this uncertainty dissipates. First, one cannot hold back forever: imagine you have a bunch of cumulated investment decisions to make. Even if a small percentage of them go through, it will be a positive and you will see that in investment. Second, less restrictive financial conditions are slowly being transmitted to the cost of financing. And third, in 2025-26 we should see an acceleration in the spending of Next Generation EU funds in Europe.

    Moving to the digital euro. Could you give us an update?

    We have started the procurement process and we will be selecting suppliers in June, but the contracts are such that they will only be triggered if the Governing Council decides to issue the digital euro. We have been working on the rulebook and we will be able to finalise it shortly after we have firm EU legislation in place. For example, whether people can have access to one or more wallets will have an influence on the rulebook, so if we don’t have a final legislation, we cannot finalise the rulebook. But it will not take long once the legislation is approved because we have done as much work as possible in the absence of a firm legislation. So the procurement is done and the rulebook is almost done. We are also working with the market to leverage the innovation potential of the digital euro. We think there is huge potential in conditional payments to increase the quality and the menu of the offering on payments.

    So that is a payment that only happens if a certain condition is fulfilled, right?

    Today there is only one type of conditional payment and it is based on time: pay this amount to this person on this date. We think we can do better than that. To make sure that this intuition is right, at the end of October, we issued a call for innovation partnerships. We were surprised to receive 100 offers. People want to experiment with new ideas. We will be doing that for the next six months and we will then prepare a report.

    Would conditional payments require a blockchain? How else would the condition be verified?

    No, it’s not a matter of blockchain. If you have a way to register the transaction on the ledger through a sort of token, that is a possibility. But technicians tell me you can make a transaction conditional even on a traditional ledger. We are working on that, but the information that I can give you is that we can do better than what we are doing today on conditional payment, regardless of the underlying technology. The technology has a bearing on many dimensions, for example latency and privacy.

    Could you give me an example of a conditional payment that could be settled in digital euro?

    For example, if the train is late, today you have to ask to be reimbursed. You could have a solution in which you only pay if the condition is automatically verified. 

    To conclude with where we are in the preparation phase, let me add that since the digital euro is a product, we have to market it. So, we are engaging with focus groups and using surveys to understand how to best finalise the product in order to meet people’s expectations. We are on schedule, so we should be ready to take a decision on moving to the next project phase by November 2025. I don’t know whether at that time the Governing Council will already be able to take a decision to eventually issue a digital euro because that depends on whether we have a legislation at that point. We have been clear that we would not take any decision about the issuance of a digital euro before the legislative act has been adopted.

    We had expected legislation on the digital euro some time ago. What’s holding up the process? Are you sensing a lack of political will?

    I wouldn’t say there’s a lack of political will. I think people want to understand the whole process. The European Commission issued legislation in June 2023, then the European Parliament started to work on that, but mentally they were not there because there was an EU election coming up. Everything stopped. They are starting to work on this now so, to be fair to them, they didn’t have much time. By contrast, in the Council of the European Union’s working party, work is progressing. As far as I know, they have gone through all of the legislative proposal and they are now focusing on the issues that still need to be worked out.  When both the Council and the Parliament have agreed internally, they will sit down with the Commission and try to finalise the legislation. So, we hope they will be able to reach an agreement internally before the summer. But again, political processes are complex and there are many things on the table. Obviously the sooner the better, but we fully understand their needs. My sense is that there is an increased sense of urgency because of the position that has been taken by the new US Administration. The fact that the US President went in so strong on this idea of promoting worldwide US dollar-denominated stablecoins obviously is a signal. The political world is becoming more alert to this. And it’s possible that we will see an acceleration in the process.

    Stablecoins are similar to money market funds that people use if they don’t want to go via the banking system, whereas the digital euro, with its holding limit, will purely be a means of payment. Why do you think a digital euro would be a good response to stablecoins?  

    You’re right, for as long as stablecoins are not used as a means of payment. My sense is that they will be. This is worrisome because if people in Europe start to use stablecoins to pay, given that most of them are American and dollar-based, they will be transferring their deposits from Europe to the United States. It may start with peer-to-peer, cross-border transactions. Then an American tourist may be able to use stablecoins instead of using a credit card, for example. So stablecoins can enter the payment space, for example, if they can compete with card schemes by reducing the price for the merchant. We have seen that important payment providers have already issued stablecoins, like PayPal, for example.

    Turning now to bitcoin, we know that the ECB has got repo lines and swap lines with other central banks. Would the ECB maintain those with a central bank that has bitcoins among its reserves?

    It’s an interesting question. Fortunately we don’t have to think about that right now because no major central bank is thinking about that.

    One is hypothesising.

    We would need to do a risk management assessment of that. Let’s see if any central bank enters this space because I don’t fully see the rationale for it. We will assess it at that point in time, if it happens. I am trying to be rational and think about why I should invest in bitcoin or another crypto-asset. The only rationale is if one thinks that the price will always go up. It doesn’t have any underlying value, there is no asset backing it, there is no earning model.

    On that, it’s a bit like gold.

    The structures of the two markets are completely different: the transparency of the market, the concentration. So, I would be careful about making the analogy. I don’t know how deep the market for gold is, but there are central banks in that market, and not just because of a legacy system. We should not stop at a superficial analogy between gold and bitcoin.

    Why do central banks invest in gold, other than legacy?

    It’s in part due to legacy, but gold has intrinsic, commercial and industrial value. Bitcoin does not have any of that.

    We’ve seen gold and bitcoin make all-time highs at the same time. Or should we say that fiat currencies are making all-time lows?

    Fiat currencies allow you, among other things, to pay. Good luck trying to pay in bitcoin or gold. Central bank money is the safest asset you can imagine and it’s relatively stable in terms of what you can buy with it.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Greens warn of burning world and call for faster government-backed transition

    Source: Green Party of England and Wales

    Responding to new data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (1) showing that the global temperature was the highest on record for a January, Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer MP said: 

    “In light of this latest scientific evidence, it would be dangerously foolish to do anything to put our burning world in even greater danger. 

    “Yet that is exactly what the government is doing – determined to expand Heathrow and Gatwick airports and refusing to rule out giant new oil and gas fields at Rosebank and Jackdaw coming on stream. 

    “Indeed, Equinor, one of the oil giants wanting to exploit the Rosebank field, has decided to cut promised investments in renewables in favour of increased oil and gas production. (2) 

    “The government is sending totally the wrong signals to the markets. We need a government committed to speeding up the transition away from fossil fuels. The government must make it clear now that it will not allow new North Sea oil and gas drilling go ahead. 

    “We must also get serious about how we make our communities more resilient to the now-unavoidable impacts of climate change. We need our homes and our communities to be fit for the future.” 

    NOTES TO EDITORS 

    1. Climate puzzle persists with unexpectedly warm January – BBC News 
    1. Norwegian oil giant Equinor cuts green investment in half – BBC News 

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Video: Sudan: Toxic effects of conflict spilling over into South Sudan – UNMISS Briefing | United Nations

    Source: United Nations (Video News)

    Briefing by Nicholas Haysom, Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS), on the situation in South Sudan.

    ——————————

    The ongoing conflict in Sudan is fuelling unrest in South Sudan, where economic hardship and political uncertainty have intensified, the Head of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) told the Security Council.

    “The toxic effects of the Sudan conflict are spilling over into South Sudan, as witnessed by the unrest, in Juba and beyond, following the reported killing of South Sudanese in Wad Madani,” said Nicholas Haysom, the Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the UNMISS.

    The unrest comes amid a worsening economic crisis. “The cost of an average food basket has risen by 200 percent, the inflation rate stands at 107 percent, and approximately ten months of government salaries are unpaid,” Haysom added.

    In a further development, the South Sudanese government has requested UNMISS to vacate part of its headquarters within 45 days, a move that Haysom described as imposing “significant cost and a logistical timetable that we do not currently have resources to accommodate.” He noted that movement restrictions on peacekeepers in some areas further complicate UNMISS operations but emphasized the mission’s commitment to constructive dialogue through the High-Level Coordination Committee.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wOAc19Yci0g

    MIL OSI Video –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Steven Maijoor: Cyber resilience in an age of geopolitical tensions

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    On December 12th 2023, Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest telecom provider, suffered a cyberattack that disrupted services for millions of users. The attack, attributed to the Russian state-sponsored group Sandworm, was one of the biggest cyber incidents in Ukraine since the onset of the Russian invasion. The hackers had infiltrated Kyivstar’s infrastructure months earlier. They deployed malware that erased thousands of virtual servers and personal computers, crippling the company’s network for managing communication services.

    The attack had several immediate effects. First of all, approximately half of Kyivstar’s network was disabled, leaving millions without mobile and internet connection. But the damage wasn’t limited to the telecom sector. The attack also disrupted banking operations, payment processing, and online banking services. Some ATMs and point-of-sale terminals didn’t work. Financial transactions were in disarray across the country.

    Amazingly, the Ukrainians were quickly able to restore services. Over the past three years they have become quite proficient in dealing with large-scale disruption. Many critical processes in Ukraine are equipped with redundancy measures. Many people even have two sim cards in their phones. That enabled the other Ukrainian telecom providers to circumvent the outage. Services at Kyivstar were gradually reinstated, with almost full restoration achieved eight days after the attack.

    This episode raises some inconvenient questions. What if this would happen to us? What if a large scale Russian or Chinese cyberattack is launched on the telecoms sector of an EU member state? Would it be possible? How much damage could such an attack cause? Would it affect financial services? And would we be able to recover as quickly as the Ukrainians did?

    A few years ago, most people would have found these questions to be rather hypothetical, but today, unfortunately, they have become quite urgent. Geopolitical tensions have been rising for more than a decade, but over the past few years they have accelerated. Countries are re-arming, they are protecting their strategic economic infrastructures, they are imposing trade restrictions and sanctions on each other, and they are weaponising access to international financial infrastructures and services. Needless to say this is bad news for the world economy and the financial sector. But perhaps in no area is the geopolitical threat so real and acute as in the digital domain.

    Apart from the Kyivstar case, there are many other examples to back this up. In late 2023, a Russian hacker breached Microsoft’s corporate network by exploiting a legacy account. As a result, the security and confidentiality of the email accounts of many organisations around the world were potentially compromised. Last year, the FBI discovered a dormant network of Chinese hackers in the United States that had compromised hundreds of routers and that was on standby to launch an attack if called on. And recently, Russian and Chinese vessels were suspected of damaging subsea data cables. Since state-sponsored cyberattacks are often very well concealed, we do not have reliable numbers on how often they occur. But anecdotal information from intelligence agencies, like the Dutch General Intelligence and Security Service, suggest their number is increasing.

    Traditionally, the financial sector has been an attractive target for cyber criminals with financial motives. But with the changing geopolitical climate, nation-state cyberattacks have become a very real possibility. Their main aim is to cause disruption and to steal sensitive information. Nation-state actors possess more resources, sophistication, and endurance than other hackers. And many sectors of the economy have become more vulnerable to large-scale disruption due to increased complexity and digitalisation. This is certainly true of financial services, with their long outsourcing chains and interconnectedness. And many financial firms depend on the same third-party service providers, so if one of these suppliers is attacked, large chunks of the financial sector may experience the knock-on effects. As we showed in our latest Financial Stability overview, a quarter of all reported global cyberattacks can potentially affect the financial sector through a vital process run by a third party on which the financial system depends.

    So, to answer the questions I posed at the start: yes, I think a major state-sponsored cyberattack on the financial sector or one of its supporting sectors could happen. And frankly, I hope we would be able to recover as quickly as the Ukrainians did.

    That is not because financial institutions haven’t prepared. Many financial institutions have taken big steps in recent years to boost their cyber resilience. I think it is fair to say the financial industry is one of the better digitally defended sectors in the economy. As it should be. But given the size and urgency of the threat, we need to do even more to keep financial services safe. This is why cyber resilience will absolutely be a key focus area in our supervision of the financial industry in the coming years. This goes both for De Nederlandsche Bank, and for the European Central Bank.

    Our aim is to make financial services safer against cyber threats. Not only by increasing the resilience of the financial sector itself, but also by stepping up the robustness of the entire chain of ICT service providers. DORA, the European Digital Operational Resilience Act, that came into effect at the beginning of this year, gives us additional tools to accomplish this aim.

    To start with, under DORA, threat-led penetration tests are mandatory for the largest financial institutions in Europe. In the Netherlands we have been conducting these kinds of tests voluntarily for over eight years with good results, and we are very pleased that it is now becoming the norm at the European level.

    But DORA also imposes stricter requirements for managing cyber risks in outsourcing chains. For example, financial firms face stricter rules for conducting due diligence on potential ICT providers. As a result, Fintechs may also experience more stringent due diligence from financial sector customers. And very importantly, under DORA, European supervisors can conduct inspections of critical third-party ICT service providers in tandem with national supervisory authorities. We expect bigtechs like Google and Microsoft to be placed under EU-wide supervision. And, just as with the banks, we are going to test their readiness to detect and withstand cyberattacks.

    Despite all efforts, there is no such thing as perfect cyber security. It is therefore vital that financial institutions take measures to recover quickly after cyber incidents. This is crucial to ensure that services can continue and people don’t lose trust in financial firms or the financial sector as a whole.

    The results of the ECB’s 2024 cyber stress test show that there is room for improvement on the recovery front. So it’s a very good thing that DORA also imposes new requirements on institutions’ continuity plans and backup policies. They need to develop a culture where cyber incidents are quickly detected and reported, they need to have their playbooks in place and they need to have clearly defined management roles and responsibilities. These are key ingredients for an effective response after a cyberattack.

    An important principle of our supervision has always been that financial institutions are responsible for putting their own house in order. And that is also the case with cybersecurity. But if we only focus on individual institutions, we miss something. As I mentioned, on a digital level the financial sector is so interconnected, and connected to other vital sectors of the economy as well, that some degree of overall coordination and cooperation is necessary to arrive at an optimal level of resilience. Notably, recent assessments, derived from nationwide contingency exercises in the Netherlands, reveal various weaknesses. These weaknesses relate to the exchange of information between critical infrastructure providers, the distribution of roles and responsibilities, and the mobilisation of scarce cyber security knowledge and expertise in the event of major cyber incidents.

    So the message here is: we need to work together. Governments should take the lead to improve cross-sectoral cooperation and coordination. They must continue to conduct large-scale cyber-drills and practice activating crisis plans. The insights gained should be used to enhance resilience.

    But there is also a role for financial supervisors like DNB. Under the new legislation, we do not only need to check whether financial firms are compliant, but we also have an obligation ourselves to look over the fence and cooperate closely with other sectors. DNB is putting this into practice by working with vital sectors that are most critical to the financial sector, such as energy and telecommunications. Within our mandate, we support these sectors with information, cooperation and ethical hacking experience.

    To sum up, the threat of major disruptions to our financial system from nation-state cyberattacks has become more urgent. Financial firms, and the entire outsourcing chain on which they depend, therefore need to do whatever they can to further boost their cyber resilience. Both in terms of detection and recovery. Cyber resilience is a top priority for European financial supervisors and there are new European laws in place. And we are going to use these laws to make sure that financial institutions under our supervision are as secure and well defended as possible. Enhancing resilience also means we need to work together. Governments, financial firms, supervisors, telecom, energy and other vital players in the outsourcing chain. Because in cyberspace, we are all linked together. And after all, a chain is only as strong as its weakest link.

    Thank you.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Derville Rowland: Innovation and technology in financial crime 

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. It is a pleasure to be with you today and to address a topic so crucial to the future of financial services: the utilisation of innovation and technology to conduct – and most importantly, combat – financial crime. 

    In the mid to late ’90s, when email truly took off as a global tool for commerce, I was a barrister working for the UK’s Crown Prosecution Service amongst others, dealing with various criminal cases including serious frauds. 

    Justified enthusiasm about the ability to connect the world more effectively and efficiently was subsequently dampened somewhat by use of the technology for all manner of deceptions, frauds and financial crimes. 

    Several decades later, we see the same pattern playing out in real-time with artificial intelligence, with criminals using AI tools to bypass customer due diligence controls and carry out fraud via social engineering. 

    These sophisticated methods, including the use of AI tools via text, images, and voice, present significant challenges for regulators and supervisors. 

    There’s a popular saying that the pessimist complains about the wind, the optimist expects it to change, but the realist adjusts the sails. 

    As a regulator with hard-won experience of developing frameworks, building the teams to implement them, and deploying technology to combat financial crime and address misconduct, I’m very much a realist – albeit one who remains stubbornly optimistic. I don’t believe it’s an either/or scenario.  

    Put simply, I believe in the potential benefits of innovation and technology for consumers, investors, businesses and society – and want to see them realised. But this also means the risks must be effectively managed – we must, as it were, adjust the sails. 

    The importance of collective responses

    The risks, of course, need no explanation to this audience. The anonymity of virtual assets can be used to transfer illicit funds quickly and across borders, with criminals increasingly leveraging new technologies to commit fraud, launder the proceeds of crime, and carry out financing of terrorism. The speed at which funds can be moved across borders makes it easier for criminals to exploit the financial system. And so on. 

    Last month, the Central Bank of Ireland published statistics showing the value of fraud in payments in Ireland increased by a quarter in 2023 compared to 2022 – from €100m to circa €126m.1 Fraud was highest in credit transfers and card payments, with the biggest growth seen in money remittance. 

    This echoes trends across Europe, with a joint EBA/ECB report in August 2024 revealing that fraud losses are highest in credit transfer and card payments across the European Economic Area (EEA).2

    Financial crime, of course, recognises no borders. And so, given the scale of the challenge which regulators and law enforcement agencies face, collective action – a harmonised response – is imperative. 

    Which is why the EU’s AML package is so important – it provides the framework and the agency (AMLA) through which we will collectively meet the challenge head on. 

    The AML package is by design technology neutral.  It applies to traditional banking/financial models equally as it applies to crypto-asset service providers (CASPs), crowd-funding platforms and intermediaries. It obliges all types of firms that come within its ambit to comply with a set of AML/CFT rules that have now been harmonised across Europe.  

    How these firms comply with the rules is up to them, via traditional AML/CFT compliance programmes or by using regtech tools. What’s essential is that the means used are effective, and that such effectiveness can be demonstrated to supervisors. 

    This will be the case both for the 40 obliged entities that will be directly supervised by AMLA and the firms supervised by national AML authorities.3  

    Not waiting for the wind to change, the EU has addressed a number of emerging risks in the package. 

    To give some examples, the use of AI is acknowledged under the package, with an obligation on firms to ensure that human oversight is applied to decisions proposed by AI tools that may impact customers in certain areas.

    Additionally, details of Virtual IBANs which are linked to other payment accounts will have to be recorded in member states’ Bank Account Registers. This will allow law enforcement to trace any funds being moved by such Virtual IBANs.  

    Finally, the package introduces the concept of Information Sharing Partnerships. Through these, credit and financial institutions will be enabled to share information relating to high risk customers, subject to important guardrails including data protection assessments.  

    The lack of an ability to share such information has long been pointed to as a real weak link in the system, which could allow someone who had an account closed by one bank on ML/TF grounds to seek to open an account in another.  

    It is hoped that these partnerships will be a real game-changer in the fight to keep bad actors from accessing the financial system in order to launder ill-gotten gains. Tech solutions, including tools which can allow information to be shared between financial institutions in a manner that complies with GDPR, will be essential here.

    The package is also forward-looking in respect of sanctions. 

    Russia’s illegal war against Ukraine exposed some fault lines in the EU’s Financial Sanctions Framework. The package seeks to remedy this by imposing obligations on obliged entities to put in place frameworks to prevent and detect attempted breaches of EU financial sanctions. 

    It also requires obliged entities to ensure that prospective customers, and any person who owns or controls such prospective customers, are screened against the financial sanctions list prior to onboarding. Here again, we see the importance of effective technological solutions – the use of screening tools will be imperative for firms seeking to protect themselves from the possibility of breaching sanctions.

    Developing a wider approach to preventing financial crime

    Money laundering pre-supposes a predicate crime which has generated assets for a criminal. Looking more widely across the landscape, more work is required to put in place a comprehensive financial crime preventative framework that includes fraud.   

    The EU and member states have started thinking about fraud and money laundering more holistically, rather than two silos to be tackled independently. This is very welcome. 

    For our part, the Central Bank of Ireland is approaching AML, fraud, and sanctions through the lens of financial integrity of the system. We are building out a more integrated supervisory framework to look at risk in a more holistic way. We want to take a whole-of-sector, rather than piecemeal, approach, and so very much support emerging EU thinking in this area. 

    As a single market and economic and political union, the EU can point to work already under way and leverage further opportunities to confront the challenges involved. 

    Already, there are a number of other important EU developments aimed at protecting the financial integrity of the system and the citizens who depend on it. 

    PSD3 and the Payment Services Regulation will strengthen customer authentication rules and extending refund rights of consumers who have fallen victim to fraud, among other measures. 

    The EU’s Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation (MiCAR) includes rules relating to the information to be made available to prospective investors in crypto assets, partly in response to the proliferation of scams involving crypto asset issuance. 

    The amended Fund Transfer Regulation ensures that transfers of crypto assets by CASPs must now be accompanied by information on the sender and recipient, in the same way that credit transfers between banks must be.  

    The Instant Payments Regulation (IPR) obliges providers of standard and instant credit transfers to verify the payee at no additional charge to the payer. It also obliges PSPs offering instant credit transfers to screen their customer base against targeted financial sanctions lists at least daily. 

    The various regulatory and policy developments to tackle financial crime cannot succeed in isolation. For this reason, supervisors have been on a steady march away from reliance on traditional supervisory tools and are increasingly exploring ways to transform technology from an enabler of financial crime to a tool in the detection, disruption and successful prosecution of financial crime. 

    In that context, I’d like to mention a significant milestone in the Central Bank of Ireland’s innovation journey – the launch of our Innovation Sandbox Programme last December on the specific theme of Combatting Financial Crime. 

    About the sandbox

    This initiative offers a structured environment for firms to develop innovative solutions in a collaborative environment, ensuring that new technologies are introduced safely and effectively into the financial sector.

    The seven participants in the programme are employing new technologies and innovative methods to develop solutions that tackle financial crime, for the benefit of both the financial system and consumers.

    Participants are representative of a diverse spectrum of innovators from Ireland, across Europe and the UK and feature start-ups, scaling firms, partnerships and established financial services firms.

    Although it is still at an early stage in the programme, several key areas of focus have been identified such as:

    • The use of AI, machine learning, and pattern recognition to detect and prevent fraud; and
    • The use of technology to enable data sharing without compromising sensitive information, allowing real-time verification of identities and other credentials while ensuring full compliance with data protection regulations and the development of digital identity verification tools.

    The Central Bank is organising workshops for participating firms on specific topics relevant to theme of combating financial crime, facilitating bespoke engagement with dedicated relationship managers, and providing access to a data platform offering data sets and tools relevant to the theme. This will allow participants to test and develop their innovation. 

    We are hugely excited about the programme and look forward to sharing the results of it in due course. 

    Conclusion

    In conclusion, I was greatly struck by something Elizabeth McCaul of the ECB Supervisory Board previously said: “Technology is fundamentally a human activity- technology is neither good nor bad, but humans make it so.” 4 

    The reality is that no piece of legislation can contemplate every financial crime risk or typology or close every loophole. We can’t wipe out financial crime – any more than we can wipe out car theft, shoplifting or burglary. But what we can do is to become as effective as possible at reducing its impact.

    Hence, as technology evolves, it behoves regulators and supervisors to evolve too – continually adapting to keep pace with these changes and ensure that, collectively and individually, we are the forefront of protecting the integrity of the financial system and those who use it. 

    Thank you.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Economics: Anita Angelovska Bezhoska: Technical and legal aspects of joining SEPA payment schemes

    Source: Bank for International Settlements

    Mr. Paolucci, World Bank team, speakers at the workshop, representatives of financial institutions, distinguished guests,

    It is a true honor and privilege to kick off this important event on payment systems, a topic that touches nearly every aspect of our daily lives and drives economies forward. In today’s rapidly evolving landscape, payment systems are at the core of how businesses, governments, and consumers interact, and in making sure that transactions are seamless, secure and efficient.

    In this vein, enhancing cross-border payments has been a priority both for advanced and emerging economies. For instance, in late 2020, the G20 leaders endorsed the roadmap for enhancing cross-border payments, thus bringing benefits through lower costs, faster speed, higher transparency and improved access in the payments area.  To monitor the progress, BIS launched a monitoring survey among central banks in 2023, covering three main areas: 1) payment system interoperability and extension, 2) data exchange and message standards, and 3) legal, regulatory and supervisory frameworks. The findings of the survey1 reveal that enhancements of the cross-border payments have been underway, as 71% of RTGS systems and 91% of fast payment systems (FPS) have completed or are planning to complete at least two of the priority actions2.  Yet, vast room for improvements remains, including in the area of harmonizing or bringing closer legal, regulatory and supervisory frameworks that are indispensable for smooth and efficient cross-border payments.

    Enhancing cross-border payments is of vital importance for the Western Balkans economies, as well. This region comprises of relatively small and open economies, with their international trade to GDP averaging close to 100%.  Most of them are already highly exposed to EU in terms of trade and financial linkages (close to 60% of their overall export goes to the EU), while intraregional trade needs further deepening. In fact, the latter – enhancement of regional economic integration is the second pillar of the Growth Plan for the Western Balkans.

    Stronger regional economic integration is considered one of the driving forces for faster real convergence, as “small and fragmented markets are unable to exploit economies of scale, and suffer from limited attractiveness to investors-3 “. Hence, there are no doubts that intraregional economic cooperation can serve as a catalyst for lifting the growth potential of the region. According to some estimates, it can potentially add up to 10% to the WB6 economies4. The common regional market is also a critical stepping-stone to the EU’s Single Market.

    Stronger trade and financial integration must be underpinned by efficient payments system. Lowering the time and costs of payment transactions can lift trade volumes, enhance financial flows and support foreign direct inflows that are inevitable for addressing the structural bottlenecks in the region. Although it is acknowledged that the WB region has made immense progress in the payments system area, yet gaps remain and need to be closed. To address these gaps, the World Bank, in collaboration with the Regional Cooperation Council and Central European Free Trade Agreement Secretariat, embarked on Western Balkans Payments Modernization Project, sponsored by the European Commission. Two main pillars of the project are SEPA accession and integration of the region with the ECB’s TARGET Instant Payment Settlement (TIPS) system.

    Let me now elaborate more on the expected benefits from joining SEPA.  The accession to the single payment area holds immense significance for all stakeholders in our economy. For financial institutions, joining SEPA before becoming EU member, means indirect access to European payment systems, eliminating the need for complex and costly correspondent banking arrangements. This simplification will lead to more efficient, cost-effective, and faster cross-border payments. For businesses, SEPA provides a gateway to improved access to the EU market. With standardized and streamlined payment processes, companies can engage in cross-border trade with greater ease, fostering economic growth and regional integration. The World Bank analysis for the costs of euro cross-border payments for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises in the Western Balkans reveals that it costs approximately 12 times more to transfer €5,000 and 15 times more to transfer €20,000 from the EU to the WB6 than among the EU countries. For citizens, SEPA membership translates to a more affordable, convenient, and secure method for conducting euro transactions. Individuals will benefit from reduced fees on cross-border payments, including for remittances. “It has the potential to reduce the cost of remittances to the Western Balkan economies, which currently amount to 6.71 percent of the total transaction, significantly exceeding the global Sustainable Development Goal target of 3 percent. By meeting this target, the economies could save approximately half a billion euros according to World Bank calculations.”5 Furthermore, SEPA membership will accelerate the digital transformation of our financial sector. By reducing reliance on cash transactions and promoting digital payment methods, it will support the development of a more modern, secure, resilient and inclusive financial ecosystem.

    Recognizing the benefits of joining SEPA, countries in the region have invested tremendous amount of time and resources, while being extensively supported by all stakeholders within the Western Balkans Payments Modernization Project, especially the World Bank. These efforts brought us all either already into SEPA, or very close to a positive decision on joining it.

    Related to this, let me elaborate more on our position.  We submitted our application for SEPA membership on 10th of July last year. This historic step was the culmination of years of dedicated work, legislative overhaul, inter-institutional collaboration, and support from international and European organizations. Completion of the formal assessment of our application and our readiness to join SEPA by the European Payments Council is expected soon. This will confirm our compliance with the European legal and regulatory requirements in critical areas, including payment services, anti-money laundering measures, free movement of capital, and data protection. These foundational elements ensure that our country is well prepared to meet SEPA’s technical and legal requirements. Having said that, an effective accession will be possible only if domestic payment service providers prepare their systems to meet SEPA’s technical and operational requirements.

    Therefore, while the benefits of SEPA accession are clear, we must also acknowledge the challenges that lie ahead. Compliance with SEPA’s regulatory and operational requirements demands investment in infrastructure, staff training, and system upgrades. The banking sector is expected to work diligently to ensure full readiness for integration with SEPA payment systems by October 2025, determined as SEPA first possible entrance date for payment service providers from the Western Balkan countries being SEPA members.

    Of course, the successful implementation of SEPA adherence will require close cooperation between regulators, financial institutions, and all other relevant stakeholders. The National Bank is committed to facilitating this transition. We will continue to provide guidance, technical support, and regulatory oversight to ensure a smooth and efficient integration process. Additionally, we will work closely with the international partners that are genuinely committed to address any challenges. The strong commitment and support has recently led to the formation of a Steering group composed of representatives from relevant EU institutions, who play a key role in the integration process and implementation of SEPA, alongside Governors from the central banks of the region and the World Bank.

    At the end, let me use this opportunity to thank our international and European partners for their continuous support, as well as to all the domestic stakeholders, as I have no doubts that we all fully understand the benefits of this project for spurring growth and supporting the overall wellbeing in the economy.

    I encourage each of you to take full advantage of the sessions, networking opportunities, and discussions ahead. It is through collaboration and exchange of diverse perspectives that we truly grow and make lasting impact.

    Thank you.

    MIL OSI Economics –

  • MIL-OSI Video: Trade Tech: Delivering for People | World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2025

    Source: World Economic Forum (video statements)

    In times of crisis, trade plays a crucial role in the delivery of essential goods and the functioning of economies.

    Where can we improve our information sharing, preparedness and supply chains to deliver in all circumstances?

    This session is directly linked to the ongoing work of the Supply Chain, TradeTech and Trade Facilitation communities of the World Economic Forum.

    The 55th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum will provide a crucial space to focus on the fundamental principles driving trust, including transparency, consistency and accountability.

    This Annual Meeting will welcome over 100 governments, all major international organizations, 1000 Forum’s Partners, as well as civil society leaders, experts, youth representatives, social entrepreneurs, and news outlets.

    The World Economic Forum is the International Organization for Public-Private Cooperation. The Forum engages the foremost political, business, cultural and other leaders of society to shape global, regional and industry agendas. We believe that progress happens by bringing together people from all walks of life who have the drive and the influence to make positive change.

    World Economic Forum Website ► http://www.weforum.org/
    Facebook ► https://www.facebook.com/worldeconomicforum/
    YouTube ► https://www.youtube.com/wef
    Instagram ► https://www.instagram.com/worldeconomicforum/
    X ► https://twitter.com/wef
    LinkedIn ► https://www.linkedin.com/company/world-economic-forum
    TikTok ► https://www.tiktok.com/@worldeconomicforum
    Flipboard ► https://flipboard.com/@WEF

    #Davos2025 #WorldEconomicForum #wef25

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ap6Y8qmmYaE

    MIL OSI Video –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Czech Republic financing from EIB Group in 2024 focused on rail upgrades, energy advances and job creation

    Source: European Investment Bank

    • EIB Group financing in the Czech Republic rose to €2.47 billion last year from €1.86 billion in 2023
    • EIB stepped-up support for Czech railway and energy industries as well as small and medium-sized companies
    • Latest annual results bring EIB Group financing in Czech Republic to almost €9 billion over past five years

    The European Investment Bank (EIB) Group’s new financing in the Czech Republic rose 33% to €2.47 billion last year on the back of stepped-up support for the railway and energy industries as well as a range of companies in the country.

    The total for 2024 amounts to approximately €2.47 billion, including €2.34 billion from the EIB and €190 million from the European Investment Fund (EIF), which focuses on micro companies and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Europe. An additional €60 million accounts for joint operations between the EIB and EIF.

    Safer and faster train travel, improved infrastructure to integrate green energy into the power grid for households and businesses and SME growth and job creation were among the main goals of EIB Group financing in the Czech Republic last year. The increase marks the third consecutive year-on-year rise in EIB Group funding in the country. 

    “We are proud to play a vital role in the Czech Republic’s ongoing transformation into a modern, globally competitive economy,” said EIB Vice-President Kyriacos Kakouris. “Our commitment remains strong as we continue supporting the country in key areas such as industrial decarbonisation, renewable energy deployment, energy efficiency, green transport, and ensuring a socially just transition.

    The EIB Group’s financing in the Czech Republic last year was higher than not just the total of €1.86 billion in 2023 but also an average of €1.77 billion in the country over the past five years. Since 2020, EIB Group funding in the Czech Republic has totalled almost €9 billion.

    The EIB Group’s financing in the Czech Republic in 2024 helped create nearly 89,000 jobs in the country, highlighting the organisation’s role in promoting employment and economic growth.

    Top EIB operations in the Czech Republic last year include a €527 million (13 billion Czech korunas) loan to the government to bolster the railway network and a €300 million credit to national rail operator České dráhy to upgrade trains.

    In the Czech energy sector, the EIB provided a €400 million loan to utility ČEZ to strengthen the electricity grid. Overall, EIB financing for this sector in the country doubled in 2024 compared with the year before, bolstering the fight against climate change and a push for energy independence.

    On the company front, the EIB last year supported a range of Czech SMEs and Mid-Caps to the tune of €866 million – an 83% increase from 2023 – through intermediaries such as Moneta Money Bank, Ceskoslovenska Obchodni Banka, CSOB Leasing, Komerční banka and SG Equipment Finance Czech Republic.  It also provided financing of €90 million to e-grocery business Rohlik, one of the three Czech unicorns, and €30 million to Czech software producer Y Soft for research advancements.

    The main EIF operations in the Czech Republic last year include €190 million in equity, inclusive finance and guarantees to support intermediated financial institutions – funding expected to unlock further investments for businesses in the country.

    Scaling-up affordable housing investments across the EU is at the forefront of EIB’s agenda. Through advisory services, it is working closely with the Ministry of Regional Development and Ministry of Finance on the strategic framework for the sector to boost investments and identify project pipeline.  

    The EIB Group’s financing in the Czech Republic over more than three decades totals around €29.4 billion.

    Background information:

    EIB  
    The European Investment Bank (ElB) is the long-term lending institution of the European Union, owned by its Member States. It finances investments that contribute to EU policy objectives by bolstering digitalisation and technological innovation, security and defence, agriculture and bioeconomy, social infrastructure, high-impact investments outside the EU, and the Capital Markets Union.   The EIB Group, which also includes the European Investment Fund (EIF), signed nearly €89 billion in new financing for over 900 projects in 2024. These commitments are expected to mobilise around €350 billion in investment, supporting 400 000 companies and 5.8 million jobs.  As for the Czech Republic, the EIB Group signed operations worth a total of €2.47 billion last year.

    All projects financed by the EIB Group are in line with the Paris Climate Accord and the EIB Group does not fund investments in fossil fuels. We are on track to deliver on our commitment to support  €1 trillion in climate and environmental sustainability investment in the decade to 2030 as pledged in our Climate Bank Roadmap. Almost 60% of the EIB Group’s annual financing supports projects directly contributing to climate change mitigation, adaptation, and a healthier environment.   

    Approximately half of the EIB’s financing within the European Union is directed towards cohesion regions, where per capita income is lower. This underscores the Bank’s commitment to fostering inclusive growth and the convergence of living standards.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: At a Glance – Current Membership of the European Council – 03-02-2025

    Source: European Parliament

    The European Council consists of the 27 Heads of State or Government of the EU Member States, who are voting members, together with the President of the European Council and the President of the European Commission, who have no vote (Article 15(2) Treaty on European Union). The chart shows the current members, the national office they hold, their most recent European political affiliation, and the year their membership began.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Written question – Importance of a pro-birth policy in Europe and lack of statistics on the number of children born to non-EU parents – E-000310/2025

    Source: European Parliament

    Question for written answer  E-000310/2025
    to the Commission
    Rule 144
    Mathilde Androuët (PfE)

    In a written question[1], we highlighted the need for an ambitious family policy to enable Europe’s population to recover, as advocated by the European Economic and Social Council as far back as 2007. In his answer, former Commissioner Mr Schmit stated that ‘having children is a matter of individual choice’ and that ‘the Commission supports Member States in creating favourable social and economic conditions’, also referring to the use of ‘migration’[2]. These are all ‘tools’ in the demography toolbox mentioned by Ms von der Leyen in her State of the Union address[3] and political guidelines for 2024-2029. The Commission is expected to make a statement on this issue in the near future[4].

    • 1.Having children is indeed a personal choice, but why should it not be supported by an established European pro-birth policy? Why is the Commission refusing to use this term?
    • 2.Eurostat does not provide specific aggregated data on the proportion of children born in the EU to non-EU parents. Would the Commission consider it useful for us to have access to this benchmarking tool?

    Submitted: 23.1.2025

    • [1] E-001728/2024.
    • [2] E-001728/2024(ASW).
    • [3] 2023 State of the Union address by President Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission, 13 September 2023. Europe’s Choice – Political Guidelines for the next European Commission 2024-2029, 18 July 2024.
    • [4] Commission’s priorities, 18 July 2024, https://commission.europa.eu/priorities-2024-2029_en.
    Last updated: 6 February 2025

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Piero Cipollone: Interview with Reuters

    Source: European Central Bank

    Interview with Piero Cipollone, conducted by Balazs Koranyi and Francesco Canepa

    6 February 2025

    The ECB has said that the direction of travel for monetary policy is clear, but the timing and extent of moves is not. What does this guidance mean to you?

    We are moving towards the target. The direction of inflation is clear, despite some small bumps. All incoming information points to a convergence with the target in 2025 and this is what our models are also telling us.

    Our models include market expectations for the interest rate path, so this convergence with the inflation target is coherent with a declining interest rate path.

    Everything is of course contingent on the information at the time of the forecasts, and we will have a new forecast round in March. Before then, we’ll get another inflation print, we’ll have more details on the composition of inflation, and all these feed into the model, as do market expectations for interest rates.

    Does that mean implicitly that you are comfortable with market expectations for further rate cuts as they are embedded in the projections?

    That was conditional on the information we had in December. I am comfortable as long as that path takes us to the target in the medium term in a sustainable way.

    What does the data since that December meeting tell you?

    Overall, I think the direction is the same. I don’t see huge changes in our view, except trade tensions. The overall understanding of where we are going is there, the fundamentals haven’t changed, so I do not expect a big change in direction.

    One thing that might happen is a trade war with the United States. How would that affect your thinking?

    It depends on details such as whether we retaliate, precisely what these tariffs are going to be levied on, and how China is affected.

    If tariffs are imposed on us, the most immediate impact will be on growth.

    The price of goods will be higher in the United States. Who is going to absorb the cost? It could be that European companies, in order to defend their market share, might be willing to sacrifice a bit of their margin in order to stay in the market. We have seen this many times and European firms have a great ability to adjust. Part of this sacrifice might be recovered through the exchange rate. So, in the end, the overall impact may not be that big.

    What concerns me more is if President Trump engages in a full trade war with China. This is a more serious threat because China has 35% of the world’s manufacturing capacity. Trade barriers will force China to sell its goods elsewhere and the competition from China could be a serious threat to us. These goods showing up in Europe could have both a deflationary and a contractionary impact because they would crowd out local products.

    The uncertainty is exceptionally high, everything is in motion. And we can’t assess where it’s all going until things fall in place.

    It’s true we have a goods surplus with the United States. But if you add in services and look at the overall current account, then the balance is close to zero.

    Looking at the very short term, can you support a rate cut in March, as some of your colleagues are already saying?

    I don’t want to seem elusive, but the uncertainty is so high that anything can happen. We all agree there is still room for adjusting rates downwards. But we need to be extremely careful. It’s important to stress this idea of a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach. I want to enter the meeting with an open mind, see the staff assessment and process incoming data.

    But we also all agree that we are still in a restrictive territory.

    Suppose tariffs on China stay, that’s a huge demand shock. On the other hand, we have energy prices moving upwards. It could be a transitory phenomenon, but what if this is more entrenched?

    How far are we from the neutral rate and why has the neutral gone up?

    When you have an estimate range that is 50 or 75 basis points, then it’s a conceptual tool and doesn’t have much bearing on policy, given the high uncertainty. Take estimates that it is between 1.75% and 2.25%. Those are two completely different monetary policies, if you are close to target. It’s such a wide range that one number could imply that you are undershooting and another that you are overshooting. So “neutral” is a very powerful analytical concept but not terribly useful for setting monetary policy, given this embedded uncertainty.

    It’s possible this rate went up but it’s also possible it stayed unchanged given how wide the band is.

    You say you are clearly restrictive now. Would that still apply after the next cut? When does the debate start on when restrictive ends?

    We are almost on target. The closer you get to target, the less you’ll need to stay restrictive.

    It’s also true we have been overly optimistic on growth and had to cut our growth forecasts three times since June. So, it is possible that the recovery is not as strong as expected and thus the inflationary pressure coming from demand is weaker. This could prompt us to reassess our concept of restrictiveness.

    Could this mean that you need to become accommodative to avoid an undershoot?

    I assess the risk around inflation to be balanced and I don’t have evidence of a possible undershoot. Long-term inflation expectations are also very well anchored.

    The latest information, especially the rise in the cost of energy, makes me think that we should be prudent. It might be a transitory phenomenon, but prices have risen substantially. Consumer expectations have also gone up a little as they are very reactive to short-term developments.

    I’m not saying that risks are moving towards being on the upside, but we have no evidence of undershooting either.

    Do the growth revisions suggest fundamental changes in how the economy functions?

    Growth has been disappointing, especially because of investments. Consumption may have been less buoyant than we thought, but it remains broadly on the path that we are expecting. The fundamentals for rising consumption are there. Real incomes are increasing, employment is high, inflation is declining and consumer confidence is holding steady.

    The real problem is investments, and that is only partially linked to monetary policy. The culprit is uncertainty. Investments have been weak since the summer given the overall uncertainty and the direction of trade policy after the US election.

    My sense is that people are holding out before making important investment decisions. There is of course a cost component related to interest rates. But you see that people are investing just to replace old capital stock.

    What can the ECB do about it?

    We have to take care of the cost component and avoid being unduly restrictive. Our goal should be to have the economy growing close to potential and to contribute to reducing uncertainty as much as possible.

    Could another targeted longer-term refinancing operation help investments?

    It doesn’t seem to me that the lack of available funding is the issue. We have seen some tightening of credit conditions but that’s not the key factor here.

    Last week we were talking about a 25% tariff, today not anymore, and tomorrow we don’t know. All companies are trying to understand where it’s all going so that they can make investment decisions.

    How does this uncertainty affect the labour market?

    There could be some softening of the labour market but overall we have been positively surprised. We went through a huge disinflation process with a very strong labour market.

    Labour hoarding has two dimensions. One is the cost. Overall, the cost is still relatively low because, by some measures, real wages are still below the pre-pandemic level. The second reason is that firms are afraid of losing skilled labour and this is still the case.

    The labour market is softening, however. The problem is manufacturing essentially. But even there we see some light at the end of the tunnel. There seem to be some initial signs of recovery in the Purchasing Managers’ Index and the Economic Sentiment Indicator. I was surprised to see that confidence in the construction sector and manufacturing activity have bottomed out, and we see some possible signs of recovery. Services are holding up overall. If there is some softening in terms of demand for labour, possibly there will be a pick-up in productivity which will reduce the unit labour cost overall. We obviously need to monitor it because, with all this uncertainty, we could see a deterioration. But I am not overly concerned about the labour market.

    Adding up what you said about these modest signs of recovery in manufacturing, does that mean you still believe in the soft-landing narrative and you don’t see a recession?

    We might not be booming but I am not expecting a recession at all. I think consumption will slowly go up because the fundamentals are there, labour income is growing, the cost of borrowing is declining, inflation is declining, and consumer confidence is basically holding up, so it’s possible that the savings rate will decline from a historic high. So, overall, I think consumption will keep going – and that is a big chunk of the economy. Investment should recover too, as soon as all this uncertainty dissipates. First, one cannot hold back forever: imagine you have a bunch of cumulated investment decisions to make. Even if a small percentage of them go through, it will be a positive and you will see that in investment. Second, less restrictive financial conditions are slowly being transmitted to the cost of financing. And third, in 2025-26 we should see an acceleration in the spending of Next Generation EU funds in Europe.

    Moving to the digital euro. Could you give us an update?

    We have started the procurement process and we will be selecting suppliers in June, but the contracts are such that they will only be triggered if the Governing Council decides to issue the digital euro. We have been working on the rulebook and we will be able to finalise it shortly after we have firm EU legislation in place. For example, whether people can have access to one or more wallets will have an influence on the rulebook, so if we don’t have a final legislation, we cannot finalise the rulebook. But it will not take long once the legislation is approved because we have done as much work as possible in the absence of a firm legislation. So the procurement is done and the rulebook is almost done. We are also working with the market to leverage the innovation potential of the digital euro. We think there is huge potential in conditional payments to increase the quality and the menu of the offering on payments.

    So that is a payment that only happens if a certain condition is fulfilled, right?

    Today there is only one type of conditional payment and it is based on time: pay this amount to this person on this date. We think we can do better than that. To make sure that this intuition is right, at the end of October, we issued a call for innovation partnerships. We were surprised to receive 100 offers. People want to experiment with new ideas. We will be doing that for the next six months and we will then prepare a report.

    Would conditional payments require a blockchain? How else would the condition be verified?

    No, it’s not a matter of blockchain. If you have a way to register the transaction on the ledger through a sort of token, that is a possibility. But technicians tell me you can make a transaction conditional even on a traditional ledger. We are working on that, but the information that I can give you is that we can do better than what we are doing today on conditional payment, regardless of the underlying technology. The technology has a bearing on many dimensions, for example latency and privacy.

    Could you give me an example of a conditional payment that could be settled in digital euro?

    For example, if the train is late, today you have to ask to be reimbursed. You could have a solution in which you only pay if the condition is automatically verified. 

    To conclude with where we are in the preparation phase, let me add that since the digital euro is a product, we have to market it. So, we are engaging with focus groups and using surveys to understand how to best finalise the product in order to meet people’s expectations. We are on schedule, so we should be ready to take a decision on moving to the next project phase by November 2025. I don’t know whether at that time the Governing Council will already be able to take a decision to eventually issue a digital euro because that depends on whether we have a legislation at that point. We have been clear that we would not take any decision about the issuance of a digital euro before the legislative act has been adopted.

    We had expected legislation on the digital euro some time ago. What’s holding up the process? Are you sensing a lack of political will?

    I wouldn’t say there’s a lack of political will. I think people want to understand the whole process. The European Commission issued legislation in June 2023, then the European Parliament started to work on that, but mentally they were not there because there was an EU election coming up. Everything stopped. They are starting to work on this now so, to be fair to them, they didn’t have much time. By contrast, in the Council of the European Union’s working party, work is progressing. As far as I know, they have gone through all of the legislative proposal and they are now focusing on the issues that still need to be worked out.  When both the Council and the Parliament have agreed internally, they will sit down with the Commission and try to finalise the legislation. So, we hope they will be able to reach an agreement internally before the summer. But again, political processes are complex and there are many things on the table. Obviously the sooner the better, but we fully understand their needs. My sense is that there is an increased sense of urgency because of the position that has been taken by the new US Administration. The fact that the US President went in so strong on this idea of promoting worldwide US dollar-denominated stablecoins obviously is a signal. The political world is becoming more alert to this. And it’s possible that we will see an acceleration in the process.

    Stablecoins are similar to money market funds that people use if they don’t want to go via the banking system, whereas the digital euro, with its holding limit, will purely be a means of payment. Why do you think a digital euro would be a good response to stablecoins?  

    You’re right, for as long as stablecoins are not used as a means of payment. My sense is that they will be. This is worrisome because if people in Europe start to use stablecoins to pay, given that most of them are American and dollar-based, they will be transferring their deposits from Europe to the United States. It may start with peer-to-peer, cross-border transactions. Then an American tourist may be able to use stablecoins instead of using a credit card, for example. So stablecoins can enter the payment space, for example, if they can compete with card schemes by reducing the price for the merchant. We have seen that important payment providers have already issued stablecoins, like PayPal, for example.

    Turning now to bitcoin, we know that the ECB has got repo lines and swap lines with other central banks. Would the ECB maintain those with a central bank that has bitcoins among its reserves?

    It’s an interesting question. Fortunately we don’t have to think about that right now because no major central bank is thinking about that.

    One is hypothesising.

    We would need to do a risk management assessment of that. Let’s see if any central bank enters this space because I don’t fully see the rationale for it. We will assess it at that point in time, if it happens. I am trying to be rational and think about why I should invest in bitcoin or another crypto-asset. The only rationale is if one thinks that the price will always go up. It doesn’t have any underlying value, there is no asset backing it, there is no earning model.

    On that, it’s a bit like gold.

    The structures of the two markets are completely different: the transparency of the market, the concentration. So, I would be careful about making the analogy. I don’t know how deep the market for gold is, but there are central banks in that market, and not just because of a legacy system. We should not stop at a superficial analogy between gold and bitcoin.

    Why do central banks invest in gold, other than legacy?

    It’s in part due to legacy, but gold has intrinsic, commercial and industrial value. Bitcoin does not have any of that.

    We’ve seen gold and bitcoin make all-time highs at the same time. Or should we say that fiat currencies are making all-time lows?

    Fiat currencies allow you, among other things, to pay. Good luck trying to pay in bitcoin or gold. Central bank money is the safest asset you can imagine and it’s relatively stable in terms of what you can buy with it.

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI Europe: Professor Jan Rovny at the European University Institute to Discuss Ethnic Minorities

    Source: Universities – Science Po in English

    Jan Rovny, a professor of political science at Sciences Po Centre for European Studies and Comparative Politics (CEE), spent 6 days at the European University Institute (Florence, Italy), thanks to our European alliance, CIVICA, and its faculty short visits programme. This stay was the perfect opportunity to discuss his research projects and to present his newest book, Ethnic Minorities, Political Competition, and Democracy (Oxford University Press).

    Find below a video interview produced by Sciences Po on how “Ethnic minorities can be a positive asset for democracy“, followed by a shorter version of an interview published by the EUI.

    you gave a lecture at the EUI examining the relationship between ethnic minorities and democracy. Can you delve deeper into how different aspects of democracy, such as liberal democracy or social rights, resonate uniquely with various minority groups?

    The core argument of the talk, which stems out of my book, is that ethnic minorities have a general interest in liberal democratic arrangements while they’re in a democracy.

    In a democracy, ethnic politics, contrary to expectations, are actually going to potentially be a force for maintaining democracy, which I’ve studied in Eastern Europe. I’ve demonstrated how this has been quite important in a number of countries during democratic transition in the 1990s, but also during recent episodes of democratic backsliding when some of the minority elites and parties have attempted in various ways to slow it down.

    This is based on the idea that, conditionally, ethnic minorities seek to protect themselves through counter-majoritarian aspects of democracy, particularly through the protection of civil rights and liberties, which is a non-majoritarian component of democracy. Simultaneously, they’re not necessarily so sure about the utility of majoritarian components of democracy, such as electoral democracy or direct popular democracy.

    My current research is trying to engage with this and see whether ethnic minorities are interested in some components of democracy, being counter-majoritarianism more so than others, such as electoral democracy. That’s what the preliminary results show.

    Could you provide examples of how these minorities try to protect themselves from majoritarian rule?

    My book delves into the cases of Hungarians in Slovakia or ethnic Russians in Estonia.

    One example is when quite a liberal ethnic minority party in Slovakia joined in a very difficult coalition with a populist illiberal party in 2016, which was to some degree seen as a bit of a betrayal by their voters because they went into this coalition with a prime minister who was not particularly minority-friendly or liberal democracy-friendly. But in that government, they very much sought to control some of the key portfolios that would protect them as a minority. They were always interested in questions of usage of language, language education, and signage in national languages.

    They were also interested in the ministry of regional development, but most importantly, they actually did manage to obtain the position of the minister of justice. The minister of justice was able to put into place a set of new laws that contained aspects like transparency of government contracts that importantly constrained some of the corrupt and anti-democratic practices that the government was involved in.

    In Estonia there was a similar situation, where a party that was not explicitly an ethnic minority party ―but that has historically been supported and has itself supported ethnic minorities― also went into a difficult coalition with a radical right party. That party was not happy with it and the Russian representatives didn’t like it.

    Some of them deliberately didn’t take up their seats in parliament in order not to vote for that coalition. I’ve interviewed specific individuals who preferred to stay in the city hall and work in local politics, even though they had a seat in the parliament. It was a symbolic rejection: “I will not vote for this coalition, but I will not prevent my party from doing it.”

    There was a very instrumental aim that the party had in mind, and that was to protect Russian education. They said, “we will go dance with the devil, but one red line is Russian schools will remain.” They saw that if they weren’t going in the coalition, the majority influenced by the radical right party will undermine this fundamental need for them and their community. Throughout that government, they have managed to protect Russian schooling.

    How does the CIVICA alliance contribute to your research?

    It made this possible. This was a unique opportunity to stay here for a week, which gave me much more flexibility to meet more people, get more feedback, and also give some comments to students. Without CIVICA this would have either not happened or would have been a lot shorter.

    Cover image caption: Jan Rovny during a CIVICA faculty short visit at the EUI in Florence, Italy. January 2025. (credits: EUI / CIVICA)

    MIL OSI Europe News –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Spades in the ground on £295 million West Midlands Metro extension

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Trams will run from Wednesbury to Brierley Hill, providing faster and more reliable transport connections to centre of Birmingham and wider West Midlands.

    • Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander in the West Midlands to begin work on the £295 million project
    • the extension will better connect the Black Country with the centre of Birmingham, improving access to jobs and opportunities
    • government investment to transform infrastructure and grow the economy as it delivers the Plan for Change

    The Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander is in the West Midlands today (6 February 2025) to put spades in the ground on the extension of the West Midlands Metro tram network in the Black Country.

    Funded through the government’s £1.05 billion City Region Sustainable Transport Settlement (CRSTS) for the West Midlands, the project will see drastically improved connections for currently underserved communities.

    For the first time, this investment will mean trams will run from Wednesbury to Brierley Hill, providing faster and more reliable transport connections between Dudley and Brierley Hill to the city centre and wider West Midlands and so to jobs and opportunities. 

    Providing first time light rail connection for many local residents, passengers will benefit from journey time savings of up to 30% compared to taking the bus and with greater reliability at peak times.

    The first phase of the extension, running from Wednesbury to Dudley town centre, is already well underway and due to open to passengers in autumn of this year.

    Poor local transport stifles local productivity, particularly in smaller towns and rural areas where so many rely on local buses, trains and trams. That’s why boosting local transport infrastructure is central to the government’s Growth Mission, as is empowering local leaders to deliver better transport for their communities through the Devolution White Paper. This is helping support jobs, boost local business and deliver growth in all 4 corners of the UK as part of the government’s Plan for Change.

    Transport Secretary, Heidi Alexander, said:

    Residents in and around the Black Country have been chronically underserved by public transport, limiting access to jobs and opportunities and stunting economic growth.

    We’re turning the tide on poor transport connections in the West Midlands and delivering a transport system that people can rely on, raising living standards across the region.  

    The extension of the West Midlands Metro will be transformational and I am delighted to officially mark the start of work today as this government gets on with supporting local jobs and business while empowering local leaders to deliver our Plan for Change.

    Once complete, the extension will provide a major boost to local businesses as the extension is set to pass through Cinder Bank, Pedmore Road and the Waterfront business park.

    The Transport Secretary is meeting with West Midlands Mayor Richard Parker and being given a tour of Parkhead Viaduct in Dudley – an iconic 19 century Brunel structure which will come back into use as part of the Metro route.

    Richard Parker, the Mayor of the West Midlands, said:

    Good transport links are essential – helping people get to school, work, local shops and to enjoy a day out. Extending the metro further into the Black Country opens up routes for job opportunities, skills and growth, ensuring fast, reliable journeys for everyone across the West Midlands.

    Now that I have secured the funding from government and we’ve got the approvals needed, the work can start to make this long-awaited project a reality. The restoration of this viaduct shows how we can protect our region’s industrial heritage while developing modern infrastructure.

    With the first phase nearly complete, the Metro is already creating jobs, supporting local businesses, and attracting investment to the area, and soon it will take those same opportunities into Dudley and Merry Hill.

    Rail media enquiries

    Media enquiries 0300 7777878

    Switchboard 0300 330 3000

    Updates to this page

    Published 6 February 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Safety bulletin 1/2025 published

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    This bulletin urges prospective customers intending to stay on liveaboard vessels to book through reputable vendors only.

    Image courtesy of Ali Aref – Dive Pro Liveaboard

    Today, we have issued a safety bulletin to prospective customers following the loss of life on Egyptian liveaboard dive boats operating in the Red Sea.

    Chief Inspector of Marine Accidents, Andrew Moll OBE, said:

    The MAIB is aware of 16 accidents that have occurred over the last 5 years involving liveaboard dive vessels operating in the Red Sea. It is deeply regrettable that a number of these accidents have resulted in the loss of life and our thoughts are with all those affected.

    While MAIB does not have the jurisdiction to investigate accidents involving non-UK flagged vessels operating within the territorial waters of another coastal state, we have made the appropriate authorities aware of our national interest and offered every assistance with any safety investigation they conduct.

    Our safety bulletin provides important guidance to those intending to stay on liveaboard vessels. It is important to remember that such vessels are unlikely to be built, maintained, equipped, and operated to the standard of similar vessels in the UK and we urge the exercise of extreme caution when choosing a boat.

    The bulletin, available via this link, contains details of what happened, initial findings, safety lessons and a recommendation.

    In line with the principles of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Casualty Investigation Code, the UK has been registered as a substantially interested state in the Egyptian safety investigations into these accidents.

    Media enquiries (telephone only)

    Media enquiries during office hours 01932 440015

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    Updates to this page

    Published 6 February 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Winchester City Council invites comments on revised approach to local planning enforcement

    Source: City of Winchester

    Residents of the Winchester district are being invited to share their views on a revised Local Enforcement Plan (LEP) being developed by Winchester City Council.

    A consultation on the revised plan, which sets out the city council’s approach to planning enforcement, is open for 6 weeks from 5 February.

    Have your say on the proposed revisions to the Local Enforcement Plan.

    The plan itself covers different aspects of the council’s approach to enforcement, including how alleged cases of unauthorised development and breaches of planning control will be investigated, the basis for planning enforcement decisions, and the approach the council takes to proactive monitoring. 

    The revised LEP, which was last updated in July 2020, has been prepared by the city council as part of its commitment to deliver an efficient and effective planning enforcement regime in line with the government’s National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF).

    It underlines the importance the city council places on protecting the Winchester district’s communities, heritage and natural environment from unauthorised development and the harm it causes. 

    Prior to the revision of the plan, the city council engaged with local communities on its contents, with two parish workshops taking place in October 2023 and December 2024, led by City Council Cabinet Member for Place and the Local Plan, Cllr Jackie Porter.

    The workshops saw parish representatives share feedback on the previous LEP that has informed updates to the revised plan.

    Speaking about the importance of the revised LEP, Cllr Porter said:

    “Investing in planning enforcement has been a priority for Winchester City Council and we are committed to the protection and enhancement of the natural and built environments at all stages of the planning process. Compliance with, and respect for that process are both essential and expected, and we will not condone wilful breaches of planning control.

    ”This sends a strong message to developers that we take a robust approach to breaches of any planning regulations and especially when they relate to the protection of our natural environment. Our focus is also to improve community engagement and transparency in the service and work more closely with our Parish Councils.” 

    For more details about the Local Enforcement Plan & consultation, and to have your say on the proposals, go to:

    https://winchester.citizenspace.com/development-management/enforcement-local-plan

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Council sets out vision for ‘fairer’ housing market as Right to Buy conversation continues

    Source: City of Leeds

    The Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government (MHCLG) recently launched a consultation seeking views on a series of proposed changes to Right to Buy, which gives eligible council tenants the opportunity to purchase their homes at a discount.

    Leeds’s response to the consultation sets out a vision for a reshaped country-wide scheme that would still support routes to home ownership for long-standing tenants but would also, crucially, give councils the resources they need to replenish their depleted social housing stocks.

    In its submission to the MHCLG, Leeds calls for a temporary ‘pause’ on Right to Buy – a step that would provide important short-term protection against the sale of existing council homes at a time when many local authorities are facing unsustainable pressure as they work to meet people’s housing needs.

    Alongside this, the response says, there must be wider reform of the financing and delivery of affordable housing by councils, with fundamental changes required if cities like Leeds are to build homes at the necessary scale and speed.

    In addition, the council argues, other routes to low-cost home ownership – such as Rent to Buy or shared ownership – should be promoted for people to consider as potential alternatives to any reshaped Right to Buy scheme.

    Equally, however, Leeds is clear that helping households who want to access home ownership should not mean a loss of council properties that would hamper the ability of local authorities to assist those most in need.

    The number of council homes sold to tenants in Leeds since Right to Buy was introduced in 1980 stands at more than 37,000.

    Local authorities have long struggled to replace ‘lost’ Right to Buy properties on a one-to-one basis due to factors such as the time needed to develop new sites and the significant discounts available to purchasers, which mean the cost of building a new home is not covered by the receipt from each sale.

    These discounts, coupled with the requirement – now ended – for authorities to use a portion of their Right to Buy receipts to repay debt to the Treasury, have deprived Leeds of more than £300m in potential funding in the last 10 years.

    The council’s consultation response stresses that, despite the challenges posed by the current system, the city has been able to adopt an “ambitious and proactive” approach to the delivery of affordable housing.

    Key to this has been Leeds’s Council Housing Growth Programme (CHGP), which has built or acquired around 700 homes since 2018.

    A greater number of affordable homes have also been built in Leeds over the last five years by the council, housing associations and developers than in any other large city in the country outside London. The proportion of these homes that are available for social rent – the most affordable tenure – is above the national average.

    The council’s response makes clear, though, that there is still much to do, with more than 28,000 applicants on the Leeds Homes Register and around 5,500 of those classed as being in urgent housing need.

    Changes to the current Right to Buy system that were therefore supported by the council in its response to the MHCLG include:

    • Raising the minimum tenancy period for Right to Buy eligibility from three to 10 years;
    • Giving councils more scope to combine Right to Buy receipts with other forms of grant funding to support investment in new homes;
    • Increasing, from five to 10 years, the period during which a person who sells a property purchased under Right to Buy is obliged to repay some or all of the original discount received.

    Councillor Jess Lennox, Leeds City Council’s executive member for housing, said:

    “As one of the largest housing stock-holding local authorities in the country, we welcome central government’s consultation on the reform of Right to Buy.

    “We are clear that routes into affordable home ownership for local residents must be maintained, but this cannot be at the expense of those most in need.

    “Long-standing constraints on the use of Right to Buy receipts mean that, despite their best efforts, local authorities like Leeds have been unable to facilitate one-to-one replacement of homes sold.

    “Reform of the scheme, coupled with fundamental changes to the financing of affordable homes, can give the country a fairer and more sustainable housing market.

    “Our Council Housing Growth Programme, combined with support for strong registered provider delivery, has shown what can be achieved through bold thinking and partnership working, and we now hope to use the same approach to help bring about transformational improvements on a national level.”

    Launching its consultation last year, the MHCLG said its proposals for a revamped Right to Buy system would continue to offer a route to home ownership for long-standing tenants but would also help councils “protect and rebuild” depleted housing stocks.

    Leeds’s response was prepared following dialogue with partners including Yorkshire Housing and the West Yorkshire Housing Partnership.

    Notes to editors:

    Further details about initial changes made to Right to Buy following last year’s General Election, the current proposals for broader reform of the scheme and the MHCLG consultation process can be found here.

    The term ‘affordable housing’ refers to homes that are available for either rent at below market value or low-cost ownership.

    When affordable housing is made available for rent, potential tenures include ‘affordable’ and ‘social’. Affordable rent is discounted by at least 20 per cent from the prevailing local market rate. Social rent is lower than affordable rent and set by a formula tied to local incomes, property size and property value.

    The Local Government and Housing Act 1989 required councils to use 75 per cent of their Right to Buy receipts for the paying down of debt to the Treasury. This requirement, since ended, reduced the ability of councils to borrow money for capital expenditure, including construction of social housing.

    A registered provider is an affordable housing provider – such as a housing association – that is registered with the Regulator of Social Housing.

    ENDS

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Fast-track armed forces recruitment launched to boost UK cyber defence

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments 3

    Armed forces recruits will be fast-tracked into specialist roles to tackle the growing cyber threat to the UK via a new recruitment scheme.

    • New ‘cyber pipeline’ will see recruits complete bespoke training within a matter of weeks.
    • Successful applicants will be in operational roles by the end of 2025, strengthening UK response to emerging cyber threats and national security.
    • The scheme is the latest government action to tackle recruitment and retention challenges in the armed forces and deliver on the Plan for Change.

    The new, bespoke entry route for aspiring cyber professionals and those with existing digital skills will see basic training reduced from 10 weeks to around one month, after which recruits will undergo 3 months’ specialist training. This will be conducted at the Defence Cyber Academy in Shrivenham.

    By the end of 2025, new recruits will be embedded into operational roles, either securing defence’s networks and services at the digital headquarters in Corsham, or conducting cyber operations to counter those who would do the UK harm as part of the National Cyber Force.

    Serving to enhance the UK’s ability to conduct operations in cyberspace, specialist recruits will receive one of the highest armed forces starting salaries of over £40,000, with opportunities for additional skills-based pay as they gain expertise and experience.  

    It comes as the Ministry of Defence has had to protect UK networks from increasing numbers of ‘sub-threshold’ attacks – more than 90,000 in the last two years.

    In an increasingly volatile world where technology is rapidly advancing, the nature of warfare is changing. Cyber capabilities present the threat of hybrid attacks which the UK must be able to protect against to ensure our national security and deliver on the government’s Plan for Change. It is paramount that the armed forces are fit to face the threats of the future.

    Minsters will argue today that cyber represents “a new front line”, with UK military systems targeted every day by adversaries. The new recruitment programme has been developed to bolster capabilities in response to these growing threats amid a global shortage of cyber talent. Looking ahead, the government’s Strategic Defence Review is closely assessing the threats we face, including the technological developments of the future.

    The launch of the new scheme is the latest action by the government to tackle the recruitment and retention crisis in the armed forces.

    Secretary of State for Defence, John Healey MP, said: 

    Fast tracking cyber warriors into our military will help ensure our Armed Forces are better equipped to face our adversaries in the 21st century and defend the country from the changing threats we face. 

    After years of hollowing out, our government is making Britain secure at home and strong abroad, delivering on our Plan for Change and the hardworking British people. 

    Launching the scheme on a visit to Corsham, the Minister for the Armed Forces, Luke Pollard MP, said: 

    With more than 90,000 cyber-attacks on UK military networks over the last two years, it is essential that we step up our cyber defence, fast-tracking the brightest and the best cyber specialists to help protect the UK and our allies.  

    We are in a new era of threat, with cyberspace as a new front line. Our government will deliver for defence by boosting recruitment efforts, cementing our national security as the foundation of our Plan for Change.

    The new initiative seeks to attract individuals with relevant aptitude, interest, or existing skills into cyber careers, while still offering the unique benefits of a career in the armed forces.

    Since July last year, ministers have delivered the largest pay rise for service personnel in over 20 years – including a 35% pay increase for new recruits – scrapped more than 100 outdated policies that slow down or block recruitment, and progress through Parliament legislation to establish an Armed Forces Commissioner to champion Service Personnel and their families.

    Recruitment into cyber roles in 2025 will initially be through the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force, with the British Army joining for subsequent recruitment campaigns from early 2026.

    Updates to this page

    Published 6 February 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Reforming the skills system

    Source: Scottish Government

    Tertiary Education and Training Bill published.

    Legislation to simplify the funding system for learners at college and university and apprentices in Scotland, has been published.

    The Scottish Government has introduced the Tertiary Education and Training Bill to Parliament, which is expected to examine it over the course of this year. 

    If passed by MSPs, the Bill will see responsibility for providing national training programmes and apprenticeships move to the Scottish Funding Council (SFC) from Skills Development Scotland (SDS). This would consolidate responsibility for provision of tertiary education and training within the SFC.

    The Bill also proposes improvements to the SFC’s governance and how it oversees tertiary education, including a greater focus on the needs and interests of learners.

    Minister for Higher and Further Education Graeme Dey said:

    “The Bill marks an important step in driving improvement in the tertiary education sector and will help ensure that our annual £3 billion investment delivers the greatest impact for learners.

    “I am grateful to everyone who responded to our recent consultation and who has helped to shape the Bill’s provisions.  Our proposals aim to reduce complexity and ensure that Scotland’s skills system continues to meet the needs of the future economy.

    “I know there is widespread support for simplifying the funding system in this key sector and I hope that the Parliament will support these proposals.”

     Background   

    If passed, the proposed changes set out in the Tertiary Education and Training (Funding and Governance) (Scotland) Bill  could come into effect from Autumn 2026. A policy memorandum, financial memorandum and other information have been published alongside the Bill.

     Plans to change the funding system which covers universities, colleges and apprenticeships, as well as student support, were announced this year. The changes follow a public consultation which took place last summer and for which a report summarising responses was published last month, along with an outline business case.

     

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Global: These maps of support for Germany’s far-right AfD lay bare the depth of the urban-rural divide

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Rolf Frankenberger, Managing Director Research, Institute for Research on Right-Wing Extremism (IRex), University of Tübingen

    The process of industrialisation, globalisation and urbanisation – spreading out from urban centres into the countryside – is one of the core developments of modern society. It has changed people’s lives in almost every part of the world. This is a process that has been going on for more than a century. New lifestyles have developed and traditional ones have been challenged.

    A new division has emerged as a result between the urban and the rural. The two are more than just forms of settlements – they reflect ideals, values and lifestyles. Those who live in towns and cities lead almost entirely different lives to those who live in the countryside.

    Where the two meet, there is potential for tension. And that tension can be politicised. In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), a far-right nationalist and völkisch party, is using the “urban-rural divide” to polarise and mobilise an electorate that is attracted by romanticised notions of purity, tradition, nation and rurality.

    Using spatial and data analysis, we can illustrate the patterns of this politicisation.

    Imagine you are living in a small village in the countryside. You strongly believe in traditions and family life. You regard the landscape around you as home – as heimat, as it would be called in German. But people from abroad are moving into your village, because they can afford land there. They are different in the way they think and live. They might, for example, be digital nomads in search of a picturesque location for their home office.

    These newcomers bring the city with them, changing the rural community they join. City, to you, is a cipher for urbanity, globalism and individualism.

    But this is just one side of the coin. The other is that people from the countryside also move to cities, be it for education, work or just because there is nothing left in their village. And they bring their lifestyles to the city, too, trying to keep up traditional ideals of how the world should look.

    Diversity, ambiguity and, sometimes, incompatibility become the norm under these conditions. Urban lifestyles and designs – such as shared flats, alternative family forms, non-binary identity or digital mobility at work – collide with rural norms such as the traditional family and “rootedness” across generations.

    This can happen both in cities and in rural areas. As a result, a pluralism of ideas, styles and values arises – ranging from progressive, liberal and leftist, inclusive, modernist values to traditional, conservative and rightist, exclusive and nationalist beliefs. They coexist but are unevenly distributed over urban and rural areas.

    The AfD and other far-right parties introduce a political meaning to the urban-rural divide. The AfD pushes a narrative of the city as a negative force that is fundamentally incompatible with the rural. It claims that an elite cartel has usurped power in Germany and is trying to destroy the “culturally determined German identity”. It instead advocates for the protection of a leitkultur – of customs and traditions (brauchtum) that it believes create identity. It asserts heteronormativity as a biological fact, emphasises a strong traditional family, traditional farming and rural identity.

    What might be called cultural landscapes (kulturlandschaften) have become a particular battleground of late, with opposition to the construction of wind turbines, especially in forests, now a policy position. The AfD’s candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel, described these as “windmills of shame” (“Windmühlen der Schande”) and called for their dismantling at the recent party congress. Wind turbines can be understood here as expressions of urban leitmotifs in a rural cultural landscape – they disrupt the countryside to provide energy for unseen urban consumers.

    And ultimately, this politicisation translates into electoral outcomes. In the European parliament elections of June 2024, the AfD took 15.9% of German votes. If we look at the spatial distribution of the AfD’s vote, a pattern showing the salience of the urban-rural divide emerges.

    East and west, town and country

    It’s clear by looking at the map that most (though not all) of the AfD’s strongholds are in eastern Germany – the region which used to be the German Democratic Republic (GDR). Fascism and Nazism were outlawed by decree when this anti-fascist state was established but, in reality, far-right ideologies don’t die off that easily. The result was that extremist views survived in an environment where there was also a lack of education on the National Socialism of the past – and a lack of education about democracy.

    When the socialist authoritarian GDR regime fell in 1989, Germany was reunified under western conditions. This had various effects, including a sense that the experiences of the east were not valued. The inequalities between the two sides of the reunified nation have left some in the east feeling distant from the state. The AfD’s version of nationalism finds fertile ground here.

    Another pattern is also clear across the whole country: the AfD is stronger in remote and rural areas and weaker in urban centres. There is less support in cities such as Berlin, Cologne, Dresden, Hamburg, Leipzig, Munich and Stuttgart. Places with more globalised cultures, international business and diverse populations remain comparably resilient to the spread of the far right.

    AfD support in different municipalities. The darker the colours, the higher the AfD vote share.
    R Frankenberger, CC BY-ND

    These patterns become more visible if you take the European election results in the state of Baden-Württemberg as an example.

    The AfD performs significantly worse in the more globalised, cosmopolitan and university-oriented urban areas and their suburbs than in the more remote and rural areas of Baden-Württemberg. On the map, university cities are marked out with a white outline.

    AfD support mapped, with university cities highlighted.
    University of Tübingen, CC BY-ND

    The AfD is particularly strong in the northern and eastern Black Forest, on the Baar, in the Swabian Alb, in the Rems-Murr district, in the Swabian Forest and in Hohenlohe. Most of these areas are remote, with many small towns and villages. They have slightly lower income levels and lower levels of migration than average. They are much more traditional in terms of culture and religion than urban areas.

    The Black Forest, the Swabian Forest, and Hohenlohe also have quite strong protestant and evangelical communities, which are strongholds of traditional family life, customs and traditions.

    We should expect to see these trends continue. The AfD looks set to make further gains in the February 23 election being held in Germany, retaining its strongholds in the east but also spreading into the west in rural areas. The urban-rural divide will therefore become all the more apparent and entrenched when German voters head to the polls.

    Rolf Frankenberger does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. These maps of support for Germany’s far-right AfD lay bare the depth of the urban-rural divide – https://theconversation.com/these-maps-of-support-for-germanys-far-right-afd-lay-bare-the-depth-of-the-urban-rural-divide-248405

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Civil servants can now learn more about national security

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    The College for National Security launches a new online course to help break down barriers and help civil servants learn more about national security.

    Andrew Millar, College for National Security

    Civil servants can now learn more about national security, thanks to a new online course launched by the College for National Security.

    The aim of the What is national security course is to break down barriers to understanding National Security threats and impacts and help civil servants integrate it into their jobs.

    Threats to the UK

    “To respond to a broad range of threats the UK faces, we need a workforce that is knowledgeable, skilled and connected when it comes to national security,” said college head Andrew Millar, pictured, who is also deputy director of Government Skills, of which the college is a part.

    “This course gives an introduction to national security and gives civil servants an overview of key national security themes. It’s an ideal introduction for anyone who would like a better understanding of national security, are interested in a career in national security or who are new to the sector.”

    Better understanding

    As part of its efforts to increase understanding of national security, the college has also published its ‘Guide to the UK National Security Community’. The guide outlines the departments, agencies and devolved administrations involved in national security and was developed in collaboration with 23 departments and agencies. It aims to help colleagues better understand the UK’s national security community and the breadth of departments involved. 

    Find out more about the College for National Security.

    Updates to this page

    Published 6 February 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: New Chair of The Royal Mint announced

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    Chris Walton has taken up the position following Graham Love’s six-year term.

    The Treasury has today announced the appointment of Chris Walton as Non-Executive Chair of The Royal Mint.

    Chris Walton will be in position for an initial three-year term, succeeding Graham Love, who served as Chair since December 2018. Chris will oversee the Mint as it continues to diversify its portfolio into new business areas, and to produce UK circulating coins in line with demand.

    Commenting on the appointment, Economic Secretary to the Treasury and City Minister, Emma Reynolds said:

    I’m delighted to welcome Chris Walton to The Royal Mint as the new Chair. Chris brings a wealth of leadership experience to the role, and I look forward to working with him as he shapes the strategic vision of The Royal Mint in the years ahead.

    I want to thank Graham Love for his leadership over the last six years. Graham has overseen a number of successes in his time as Chair and has set the foundations for The Royal Mint of the future.

    Chris Walton added:

    It is a privilege to join The Royal Mint during this fascinating period of transformation. With sustainability at its core, the Mint is evolving for the future, and I am eager to support its growth and build on a remarkable legacy.

    The Royal Mint is one of the oldest companies in the world – supplying coins to the UK for over 1,100 years. It also produces commemorative coins, to mark events of national, historical and cultural significance, offers investment in precious metals, a jewellery collection and recycling precious metals from e-waste. 

    The Chair of The Royal Mint is responsible for providing strategic direction and works closely with the Board of Directors and Executive Team.

    Updates to this page

    Published 6 February 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Joint statement: Four years on from the Military Coup in Myanmar

    Source: Government of Canada News (2)

    January 31, 2025 – Ottawa, Ontario – Global Affairs Canada

    “Today marks 4 years since the Myanmar military regime overthrew the democratically elected government in Myanmar, creating one of the largest crises in the Indo-Pacific. Since the coup, the people of Myanmar remain subject to military rule that has deprived many of their rights, democratic aspirations and, for thousands, their liberty and their lives.

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-OSI Canada: Protecting Canada’s Democratic Institutions and Processes from Foreign Interference

    Source: Government of Canada News

    Foreign interference poses a growing threat to Canada’s democratic institutions. The Government of Canada is working to ensure that Canadians can maintain their trust in Canada’s democratic institutions. This includes a series of measures already in place, as well as ongoing work to further strengthen our electoral system against foreign interference.

    MIL OSI Canada News –

  • MIL-Evening Report: Grattan on Friday: we don’t need an inquiry into the caravan affair but we do need some answers

    Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra

    The battle to contain antisemitism in Australia finds both sides of politics embracing measures they’d otherwise abhor.

    Spectacularly, the government capitulated this week to include mandatory minimum sentences of between one and six years in its hate speech legislation that passed the parliament on Thursday.

    That flip flop was done in a day. You need a longer memory to recall the Coalition’s insistence that free speech had to be preeminent over dealing with hate speech.

    Way back, when Tony Abbott was prime minister, there was a big (ultimately unsuccessful) push against Section 18C of the Racial Discrimination Act. This civil law prohibits acts “likely to offend, insult, humiliate or intimidate someone because of their race or ethnicity”. At the very least, libertarian Liberals wanted it reworded to remove “offend” and “insult”.

    Before entering parliament, James Paterson worked for the right wing Institute of Public Affairs, which spearheaded attacks on 18C. Even after becoming a senator in 2016, Paterson remained a strong critic of 18C (although he says he always supported laws against incitement to violence).

    Now as home affairs spokesman Paterson has been at the forefront of the opposition efforts to make the new hate speech law as strong as possible.

    Until mid week the government firmly ruled out giving in to opposition’s demands for mandatory sentences for hate crimes. The government’s resistance was unsurprising. The Labor party platform rules out mandatory sentences.

    But then late on Wednesday, leader of the house Tony Burke went into parliament with amendments including mandatory minimum sentences of between one and six years for various crimes under the anti-hate legislation.

    Teal MP Zoe Daniel, from the Victorian seat of Goldstein, was among several crossbenchers who voted against that amendment.

    She said later she supported the legislation but described the mandatory sentencing as “overreach”. “Community safety is paramount, and so is good policy-making. Mandatory minimum sentences do not reflect good parliamentary practice or good governance. Nor do they respect the sanctity of Australia’s constitution and separation of powers, and the importance of judicial independence.”

    The antisemitism crisis is, on a number of fronts, leading to the actual or advocated curtailment of civil liberties. The federal government has outlawed the Nazi salute and hate symbols. The NSW government is to bring in more anti-hate provisions.

    There is constant debate about the desirability of curbs of one sort or another on demonstrations. The antisemitism envoy, Jillian Segal, has said, “There should be places designated away from where the Jewish community might venture where people can demonstrate”.

    In our history we repeatedly see how government actions to confront perceived emergencies collide with civil liberties.

    For example, strong security laws introduced in the wake of September 11 2001 triggered arguments about the extent to which they struck down people’s rights. Going back to the Menzies era, the Communist threat prompted the government to try (and fail) to carry a referendum to ban the Communist Party.

    People of good intent will differ about the extent to which particular responses to a crisis are necessary and appropriate, or go too far, either being bad policy or an unjustified curb on civil liberties. Historical judgements may also differ from those made at the time.

    This is not to dispute that we should be taking the strongest action against antisemitism. It’s merely to point out that with each particular measure, it’s important to be confident the end justifies the means, taking into account possible unintended or adverse consequences as well as what is to be achieved.

    Having had a victory over mandatory minimum sentences, the opposition is pushing for an inquiry into when Prime Minister Anthony Albanese was told about the caravan found at Dural, NSW filled with explosives and containing indications Sydney’s Great Synagogue and a Jewish museum could be targets.

    The caravan was parked for several weeks on a street before it came to police attention. NSW police alerted Premier Chris Minns the following day. But it is unclear when the prime minister found out.

    Albanese has steadfastly refused to say, citing operational reasons. Opposition Leader Peter Dutton suggested (without producing any evidence) the NSW police might have made a deliberate decision not to advise the Commonwealth “so that the prime minister wasn’t advised because they were worried he would leak the information”.

    Dutton is calling for an “independent inquiry” into the circumstances by “an eminent Australian from the criminal intelligence and law enforcement intelligence community”.

    The inquiry call is politically driven. The government is right in arguing it would have the downside of diverting resources. But nevertheless there are questions that need answering.

    There seems no logical reason why the PM cannot reveal when he was first briefed on the caravan, other than to avoid disclosing some embarrassing timing gap. Any explanation around operational reasons would surely not explain why Minns was briefed but Albanese was not. Alternatively, if Albanese was briefed promptly, why doesn’t he say so?

    When pressed at a parliamentary committee on Thursday, Australian Federal Police Force Commissioner Reece Kershaw would not be drawn, saying it was not appropriate to provide information about an ongoing investigation at a public hearing.

    Later Greens member of the committee, senator David Shoebridge, said: “The AFP telling us when they informed the PM could in no way prejudice any ongoing police investigation. We had half a dozen senior AFP officials [before the committee] including the Commissioner and zero serious answers.

    “This whole circus would be shut down by any half competent government by telling us when the PM knew with a simple explanation for any delay. Instead we get these bizarre performances from both the PM and the AFP.”

    One question that should be answered by the authorities is why Jewish leaders, including those connected with the synagogue and the museum, were not informed. Though operational reasons might be relevant, surely safety considerations suggest the Jewish leaders should have been told.

    The authorities believe the antisemitic attacks are not simply unconnected incidents. They say people are being paid to make them, suggesting some master minding behind them.

    Of course that justifies secrecy while investigations proceed, but operational needs should not be a cover for refusing to provide enough information to give the public confidence the various authorities are working effectively together.

    Michelle Grattan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Grattan on Friday: we don’t need an inquiry into the caravan affair but we do need some answers – https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-we-dont-need-an-inquiry-into-the-caravan-affair-but-we-do-need-some-answers-249275

    MIL OSI Analysis – EveningReport.nz –

  • MIL-OSI China: Expert: US tariffs on Chinese goods blatant trade bullying

    Source: China State Council Information Office

    The U.S. Capitol building is pictured in Washington, D.C., the United States, on Jan. 6, 2025. [Photo/Xinhua]

    The United States’ unilateral imposition of additional tariffs on Chinese goods is a blatant act of trade bullying, damaging bilateral trade and erodes the rules-based global trade system, according to a Chinese expert.

    Xu Xiujun, director of the Research Center for Sino-Foreign Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a professor at its International Political Economy Institute, voiced his concerns during an interview with China.org.cn on Wednesday. “The U.S. imposition of extra tariffs on Chinese goods severely disrupts normal bilateral trade and jeopardizes the sustainable development of China-U.S. ties,” he said. “The move violates World Trade Organization (WTO) rules and pushes the global trade order once again to the brink of chaos.”

    Following the U.S. imposition of a 10% additional tariff on Chinese imports on Feb. 4, citing the fentanyl issue, Beijing swiftly responded with a series of economic countermeasures the same day.

    The Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that China will implement additional tariffs on select U.S. goods starting Feb. 10. These tariffs include a 15% levy on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and a 10% increase on existing tariffs for crude oil, agricultural machinery, large-displacement automobiles and pickup trucks. 

    China’s State Administration for Market Regulation also announced an anti-monopoly investigation into Google, and the Ministry of Commerce (MOC) and the General Administration of Customs jointly declared export controls on certain items related to tungsten, tellurium, bismuth, molybdenum and indium, effective Tuesday.  

    The Chinese government has also filed a complaint with the WTO’s dispute settlement mechanism, as confirmed by an MOC spokesperson on Tuesday, to “safeguard China’s legitimate rights and interests.”

    “By taking the U.S. tariff measures to the WTO dispute settlement mechanism, the Chinese government has not only demonstrated its firm stance in safeguarding its own rights and interests, but also taken concrete action to uphold the international trade order based on WTO rules,” said Xu.

    At a press briefing on Wednesday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said, “Applying pressure and issuing threats is not the right way to handle relations with China,” arguing that shifting the blame to other countries does not address the U.S. fentanyl crisis.

    “The real solution lies in reducing domestic drug demand and strengthening law enforcement cooperation,” Lin added. He also highlighted that China enforces some of the strictest drug control policies in the world.

    Xu highlighted China’s longstanding leadership in drug control, noting that China was the first country to officially schedule fentanyl-related substances as a distinct class back in 2019.

    “In contrast, due to lax regulatory oversight, the U.S. has been grappling with rampant drug abuse and widespread drug problems,” he said. Xu criticized the U.S. government for singling out unrelated Chinese products with unilateral tariffs — a tactic designed to conceal its own inability to effectively address domestic drug issues while protecting the interests of large pharmaceutical companies and their political allies.

    “This approach not only fails to address the challenges facing the U.S. but actually worsens its problems,” he added.

    Xu said that China will enhance cooperation with other WTO members, firmly opposes unilateralism and trade protectionism, and embraces genuine multilateralism.

    “China will work to promote stable and sustainable international economic and trade cooperation in line with the WTO’s core principles of fair competition, transparency and predictability,” he said.

    MIL OSI China News –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Labour warned against pandering to far right

    Source: Scottish Greens

    06 Feb 2025 Equality

    It’s impossible to beat the far right by copying them.

    More in Equality

    Labour cannot defeat the far right by pandering to them or replicating their policies, warns Scottish Greens co-leader Lorna Slater.

    The warning comes as a group of Labour MPs called on Labour to take a more right-wing stance on immigration and other issues, and as Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar said he couldn’t rule out working with Reform MSPs to take power in Scotland.

    With recent polls showing that Reform UK are set to gain seats in Holyrood and for the first time take the lead in Westminster, Scottish Greens are calling on Labour to ignore the far right’s toxic game.

    Scottish Greens Co-Leader Lorna Slater said:

    “Copying the hateful and authoritarian policies of the far right is always wrong. It punished marginalised people and normalises extreme policies. It won’t win Labour any votes, and will simply legitimise the toxic policies of Reform and those like them.

    “Time and again, across Europe and the world, we have seen that trying to mimic the far-right and take them on at their own game does nothing to silence them; it only makes them louder.

    “In Germany, the AfD has been legitimised by mainstream parties who have pandered to them on immigration; now these fascists stand a real chance at entering government and in America, Donald Trump was propelled to the White House by a pitiful failure of centrist opposition who tried to do the same.

    “Labour needs to learn lessons from fighting the far right across the world, but I have little hope that Keir Starmer will listen. He promised change, yet on everything from tackling the climate crisis to protecting working-class families he is already failing badly.”

    Ms Slater added:

    “Scotland deserves so much better than a race to the bottom between Labour, the Tories and Nigel Farage. We can have a fairer, greener and more equal future.

    “Whilst other parties are lurching to the right, the Scottish Greens are standing our ground as a party that will always put people and planet before profit.”

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The ‘degrowth’ movement envisions global climate justice, but must adapt to global south realities

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Claudius Gräbner-Radkowitsch, Junior Professor of Pluralist Economics, Europa-Universität Flensburg

    It is widely accepted that human activities are the primary drivers of global warming and environmental crises, including the rapid loss of biodiversity. However, the debate over how best to address these issues is far from settled. In political circles, “green growth” – the concept of making economic activities more sustainable – has emerged as the most popular solution.

    Is green growth enough?

    The idea behind green growth is to continue expanding economies while minimising environmental harm. However, critics argue that this approach has failed to significantly curb climate change and biodiversity loss.

    Despite international efforts since the 1970s, carbon emissions have continued to rise. As the World Inequality Report reveals, nearly half of historical emissions occurred after 1990. Incremental policy changes, technological innovations and shifts in consumer behaviour have not been enough to reverse this trend. This failure has led to the growing appeal of “degrowth” – a more radical alternative that challenges the current global economic system.

    What is ‘degrowth’?

    “Degrowth” emerged in Europe, particularly in France, in the late 2000s. Philosophers such as André Gorz and economists such as Serge Latouche were among its early proponents, with researchers such as Tim Jackson later popularising the concept in the English-speaking world. They argue that the root cause of environmental destruction lies not only in human activity but also in a global economic model that has prioritised growth and profit since the Industrial Revolution.

    Initially, degrowth was a critique of Western lifestyles and notions of progress. Environmental concerns were just one part of the movement’s broader agenda. Over time, however, environmentalism has become central to the movement’s goals.

    A stenciled message in favour of degrowth.
    Paul Sableman, CC BY



    À lire aussi :
    Idea of green growth losing traction among climate policy researchers, survey of nearly 800 academics reveals

    What about the global south?

    Today, many degrowth advocates assert that the richer countries of the global north, being largely responsible for environmental degradation, should be the ones to scale back economic activity to avert ecological catastrophe. But what about the poorer countries of the global south? Should they adopt degrowth strategies? Some argue this would impose a neocolonial agenda, with wealthier countries once again dictating the terms of global development. Others note that many poorer countries need economic growth to combat poverty. And even if degrowth were limited to the north, it could still have significant effects on the south – both positive and negative.

    A review of academic literature on degrowth and the global south reveals two main perspectives: those who see degrowth as incompatible with the south’s development needs, and those who believe it could offer synergies with sustainable development goals.

    Supporters of degrowth often point out that many of its core ideas originate in the global south. Anthropologist Jason Hickel cites figures such as Sri Lankan philosopher Ananda Coomaraswamy, Indian economist J.C. Kumarappa and Bengali poet Rabindranath Tagore as inspirations. While these thinkers may not use the term “degrowth”, they promote ideas aligned with it, such as the Latin American Sumak kawsay (or “Buen vivir”) or the South African Ubuntu. These non-Western perspectives have been instrumental in shaping the degrowth discourse in the global north.

    Degrowth as decolonisation

    Degrowth advocates argue that scaling back economic activity in the north could help dismantle the unequal global division of labour, in which raw materials are extracted from the south and processed into consumer goods in the north. This system disproportionately benefits wealthier nations while leaving poorer countries with the social and environmental costs. Federico Demaria, a researcher in political ecology, argues that northern countries must “pay for past and present colonial exploitation in the south” – a central theme in contemporary degrowth discourse.

    An aerial view of a gold mine in Brazil.
    Tarcisio Schnaider/Shutterstock

    Some researchers suggest that dependence on economic growth is problematic for both the north and south. They argue that growth alone does not guarantee poverty reduction – wealth distribution and institutional reforms are just as crucial. Degrowth could help both regions avoid unsustainable development models by focusing more on social well-being than perpetual economic expansion.

    Challenges for degrowth in the global south

    However, many scholars believe degrowth is unattractive for the global south. Critics argue that the concept is too Eurocentric and fails to resonate amid the specific challenges faced by poorer nations. Interviews with academics and activists in the south show that while they may agree with some of the ideas behind degrowth, they reject its language, which they see as rooted in Western thinking. Economist Beatriz Rodríguez Labajos and her co-authors suggest that researchers from the north and south should look at “strengthening potential synergies, through an assertive recognition of the barriers to doing so”.

    There is also concern that promoting degrowth in the south could be perceived as a new form of colonialism. Imposing Western notions of degrowth could prevent poorer countries from following the same path to prosperity that the north took, which often involved exploiting the resources of the south. The degrowth movement’s failure to fully address the colonial roots of economic development poses a challenge to its decolonization-oriented ambitions.

    The problem of global dependencies

    Finally, global dependencies further complicate the degrowth debate. Many people in the south rely on export-driven economies that serve Western markets. A reduction in economic activity in the north could harm populations in the south who depend on those exports.

    This interdependence presents a dilemma for the degrowth movement. Proponents argue that degrowth is not about abandoning economic activity but reforming the global trade, finance and governance systems to prevent negative impacts on the south. For degrowth to succeed, its advocates must formulate concrete proposals that address these global dependencies without exacerbating inequalities or harming the most vulnerable.

    This article is part of a project involving The Conversation France and AFP audio. It has received financial support from the European Journalism Centre, as part of the Solutions Journalism Accelerator programme supported by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. AFP and The Conversation France have retained their editorial independence at every stage of the project.

    We offer this article as part of the Normandy World Forum for Peace, organised by the Normandy region of France on September 26-27, 2024. The Conversation France is a partner of the forum. For more information, visit the Normandy World Forum for Peace’s website.

    Claudius Gräbner-Radkowitsch is a member of the Bündnis90/Die Grünen (The Greens) party. He has received research grants, notably from the Austrian FWF and the German DFG.

    Birte Strunk ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. The ‘degrowth’ movement envisions global climate justice, but must adapt to global south realities – https://theconversation.com/the-degrowth-movement-envisions-global-climate-justice-but-must-adapt-to-global-south-realities-238276

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Reappointments to the Civil Procedure Rule Committee

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    The Lord Chancellor has approved the reappointments of Ben Roe and Ian Curtis-Nye as members of the Civil Procedure Rule Committee.

    The Lord Chancellor has approved the reappointment of Ben Roe as a Legal Member of the Civil Procedure Rules Committee (CPRC) for 3 years from 9 June 2025, and Ian Curtis-Nye as a lay member of the CPRC for 3 years from 24 October 2025.

    Ben Roe

    Ben Roe is a solicitor who is the Lead Knowledge Lawyer for Baker McKenzie’s Global Disputes and Compliance Group, responsible for knowledge management and training for litigation, arbitration and compliance lawyers. He is a member of the Association of Litigation Professional Support Lawyers and the Ministry of Justice Governance and Standards Board, overseeing the Witness Intermediary Scheme.

    Ian Curtis-Nye

    Ian Curtis-Nye is a Partner/Divisional Manager at Lyons Davidson solicitors, with overall responsibility for the civil litigation division and legal costs teams, also being a solicitor and costs lawyer. In addition, he is a trustee and chair at Citizens Advice Reading; providing support and advice to the local community on a wide range of issues. He has extensive experience in consumer affairs across both the legal and lay advice sector.

    The CPRC is the statutory body that governs the practice and procedure to be followed in the Civil Division of the Court of Appeal, the High Court, and the County Court.

    The appointment of members, of the CPRC, are made by the Lord Chancellor after consulting the Master of the Rolls and – in respect of legal members – the relevant professional body.

    Appointments are regulated by the Commissioner for Public Appointments and recruitment processes comply with the Governance Code on Public Appointments.

    Updates to this page

    Published 6 February 2025

    MIL OSI United Kingdom –

  • MIL-OSI United Kingdom: Government opens record industry conference to kickstart SME exports

    Source: United Kingdom – Executive Government & Departments

    UK Export Finance welcomes industry to its largest ever national conference, promoting SME growth.

    • Minister for Exports calls on SME audience to make use of government support at UK Export Finance’s annual conference.

    • Around 1,000 business leaders – including directors from CBI and British Chambers of Commerce – gather to help UK businesses access international opportunities.

    • With a £60 billion remit, UKEF enabled exports to 45 global territories in 2024, unlocking export opportunities for British suppliers.

    The UK government is hosting one of its largest ever export conferences, with around 1,000 business leaders attending today’s UK Trade and Export Finance Forum to discuss ways of reducing financial barriers to exporting.

    Hosted in London by UK Export Finance (UKEF), the event welcomes speakers from the CBI, British Chambers of Commerce and Invest in Women Taskforce. Workshops will discuss overseas opportunities and how government and private sector can collaborate to help a wider range of businesses to export.   

    UKEF is a government department which helps businesses to export by offering financing guarantees and insurance – support which helps companies to fill their order-books, invest in growth and create wealth. The event comes a week after the Chancellor pledged to kick-start economic growth across the country as part of this government’s Plan for Change.  

    In the 2023-24 financial year, UKEF backing for businesses contributed £3.3 billion to the UK economy and supported up to 41,000 jobs across the country.

    UKEF can also now reveal that in 2024, its work secured export deals to 45 territories, increasing the availability of overseas contract opportunities for British businesses.

    A majority of businesses seeking UKEF support and attending the conference are small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Export finance support complements other actions which the government is taking to support SMEs, like measures tackling the scourge of late payments, the launch of a Business Growth Service, and trade agreements generating new opportunities.

    Gareth Thomas, Minister for Exports, said:

    UKEF plays a key part in this government’s central mission to go further and faster to deliver economic growth across the country. Their support has led to projects in dozens of countries around the world, supporting jobs, boosting wages and increased investment into the UK.

    Supporting small firms and supercharging exports are at the very core of that growth mission, because we know that when more SMEs trade around the world, it boosts the whole economy.

    The conference falls ahead of the government’s Industrial Strategy, a plan for supporting investment into high-growth sectors which is expected to launch in spring 2025. This will be supported by UKEF’s own vision for supporting more SMEs and facilitating £10 billion in financing for clean-growth exports by 2029 – a vision furthered by the Chancellor’s recent launch of export finance support for projects supplying critical minerals to UK industry.

    Shevaun Haviland, Director General of the British Chambers of Commerce, said:

    If the UK wants to grow its economy, then we need to export more. The maths on this is really very simple. If we export more than we import, then trade contributes to economic growth, productivity rises, and wages and investment are pushed up – creating a virtuous circle. 

    Our experience has also taught us that firms that export are more resilient, innovative and grow faster. Support for our SME exporters and encouragement to help them start selling overseas is vital to making this happen and UKEF has a key role to play.

    Jordan Cummins, Director (UK Competitiveness), CBI, said:

    To be a key player in the global race for growth, the UK needs a bold and ambitious Trade Strategy.

    As business continues to navigate changing global dynamics, persistent economic headwinds, and geopolitical uncertainty, intervention is needed from government to enable firms to capture the growth prizes on offer. Doing so will ensure the UK is positioned as one of the world’s best locations for investment and trade.

    Record interest in the government event follows growth in the range of businesses seeking UKEF support. Since launching the event in 2018, UKEF has seen a significant rise in the number of retail and wholesale exporters supported, particularly in food & drink, beauty & healthcare, furniture, homeware and interior design.

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    Published 6 February 2025

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