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Category: Report

  • MIL-OSI Global: How new Ofsted report cards could be improved – by giving parents what they want to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Toby Greany, Professor of Education, University of Nottingham

    Media_Photos/Shutterstock

    Change is underway at Ofsted, England’s schools inspectorate. Headline judgments that summed up a whole school in one or two words have been discarded in favour of a proposed report card system that promises to offer a more rounded assessment of school quality.

    According to education secretary Bridget Phillipson, the changes are supposed to make the system less high stakes for schools while giving parents more information. The proposed report cards give a score on a five point scale for a range of areas, including wellbeing and inclusion, among others.

    The evidence that Ofsted’s previous approach was problematic had been stacking up for some years. My four-year study with colleague Rob Higham showed how inspections were driving a culture of compliance and standardisation in schools. They were incentivising leaders to prioritise the interests of the school over the interests of particular groups of, usually more vulnerable, children.

    So far, responses from the teaching profession to the new report card proposals have not been positive. The Association of School and College Leaders’ says they will be “bewildering for teachers and leaders, never mind the parents whose choices these reports are supposedly intended to guide”, and retain the high-stakes aspects of the previous system.

    A poll of more than 3000 school leaders by headteachers’ union the NAHT indicates that nine in ten disagree with the plans.

    My recent research suggests the need for a different approach which prioritises local accountability, in particular to parents. Over the past three years, my colleague Susan Cousin and I have been working on a project evaluating how professionals in different local areas can work together to address placed based challenges in education.

    One of these challenges was how to strengthen professional accountability. The aim was for school staff to take greater collective ownership of what school “quality” looks like and how it could be improved, rather than waiting for Ofsted to tell them.

    In two areas, Sheffield and Milton Keynes, school-led partnerships – membership organisations which support collaboration between schools – decided to develop their own local school “report cards”. These were intended to offer a broad and balanced set of information for parents, governors and others.

    In both areas a core design group was brought together. This involved leaders from a diverse range of local primary and secondary schools and academy trusts who agreed a draft format for the report cards.

    These prototypes were then taken out to consultation with wider schools as well as parents and carers. Based on their feedback, the report cards were adjusted before final versions were agreed. Each area developed different versions for primary, secondary and special schools.

    What parents want

    The most transformative aspect of the process arguably came from the consultations with parents and carers. For example, in the development of the Sheffield report card, it became clear that as well as information on the school from external sources – including Ofsted reports – parents wanted to learn more about what the school was really like. This led to the inclusion of a “get to know this school” section of the report card. The project lead in Sheffield explained to us:

    What came through really clearly … [from parents and carers] was, “I want a feel of the school” … They want the quality assured stuff. But they also want a feel of the place. And that’s why in the second iteration, what we’ve got is a whole section, which is an ability for the school to show itself – photos, videos, talk about particular aspects of education, and what’s unique about their school in relation to curriculum.

    Another feature that parents wanted included was a way of understanding what other parents and students themselves think about each school. In response, both Sheffield and Milton Keynes have included sections that show the “top five positives” according to parents and carers, and “five words from children about this school”.

    Strengthening local accountability

    England’s school system has become increasingly centralised in recent decades. The role and capacity of local authorities has been reduced and national requirements and oversight, including from Ofsted, have increased.

    In the process, school leaders and staff have become disempowered, while parents and local communities have largely lost their ability to influence the quality and direction of local schools. Locally developed school reports offer a way to redress the balance.

    This approach would not remove national accountability. In both Sheffield and Milton Keynes the plan is to incorporate national data, including from Ofsted inspections, into the local reports.

    But encouraging local ownership and strengthening the voice of parents and children in terms of how school quality is assessed and reported, could help schools become more accountable to the people most invested in them, rather than the national government.

    Toby Greany receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council, the Association of Education Committees and the Nuffield Foundation.

    – ref. How new Ofsted report cards could be improved – by giving parents what they want to know – https://theconversation.com/how-new-ofsted-report-cards-could-be-improved-by-giving-parents-what-they-want-to-know-249304

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Roman London’s first basilica found under an office block – here’s what it reveals about the ancient city

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Lacey Wallace, Senior Lecturer in Roman History & Material Culture, University of Lincoln

    Archaeologists from the Museum of London have discovered a well-preserved part of the ancient city of London’s first Roman basilica underneath the basement of an office block. The basilica was constructed for use as a public building in the 70s or early 80s AD.

    In a Roman town, a basilica was a multi-functional civic building. Often paid for by leading local inhabitants, it provided a large indoor space for public gatherings. These ranged from political speeches to judicial proceedings.

    Along with the connected forum – an arrangement of buildings that surrounded an open courtyard space – the building formed the centre of administrative and civic life in the ancient Roman city of Londinium.

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    Other walls of London’s basilica and forum have been known by archaeologists since the early 1880s. But they were only recognised as remains of the social and civic centre of Londinium in 1923.

    The story until now

    Peter Marsden, the author of The Roman Forum Site in London (1987), compiled disconnected evidence for the different phases of London’s forum basilica complex.

    Referring to the current area of excavations (on Gracechurch Street), he noted that: “More than half of the archaeological deposits still remain, and should be carefully excavated when the opportunity arises, since only then will the history of the site be elucidated.”

    Occasional opportunities have arisen to reveal small parts of the forum basilica. For example, during construction of a shaft to install a lift at 85 Gracechurch Street, some important remains from the first century were found. But the excavated area was too small to contribute greatly to our knowledge.

    In contrast, the recent work is part of a major redevelopment. It has opened targeted excavation areas where walls of the basilica were expected to be found, exposing substantial parts of the building.

    Archaeologists have found one-metre-wide foundations and walls of the interior, some of which probably extend for more than 10 metres in length. The walls are constructed of flint, tile and Kentish ragstone (a type of limestone quarried in Kent), and some stand at four metres high.

    Archaeologists discussing the find.

    What was the basilica for?

    Londinium was constructed on an unoccupied site beginning in about AD47 or 48. It began to gain the trappings of a Roman-style town, including a basilica building, in the lead-up to its destruction in the Boudican Revolt in AD60 or 61.

    The city did not have a monumental forum and basilica complex until later, however, when a major programme of public and private construction was undertaken in the Flavian period (AD69–96).

    London’s Flavian basilica took the plan of a long rectangle (44m x 22.7m) divided into three aisles. There is good evidence from the deeper central aisle (nave) wall foundations that the nave roof was raised to two storeys, to allow for windows to provide internal light.

    Shallow foundations crossing the nave are evidence of a raised dais or platform at the eastern end. The speaker or judge would sit there, elevated above the crowds, increasing both his visibility and status. This platform, or “tribunal”, is the area that has recently been revealed.

    The basilica would have risen above the north side of the buildings that formed the forum courtyard. It would have dominated the high ground of this monumental space at the highly visible crossroads leading straight up from the Roman Thames bridge.

    It would have been the largest building in the area and firmly announced that the people of Londinium were constructing a high-status Roman city.

    Rebuilding following the British queen Boudica’s revolt had been swift. The post-Revolt fort that was built only 100 metres or so down the street had likely been decommissioned and the people were ready to embark on a new phase and a major expansion of the urban centre.

    The designs of late first century forum basilica complexes varied across the provinces. But generally they combined religious, civic, judicial and mercantile space.

    In places like Pompeii, the forum had developed over time. But, when the town was buried by the ash of Vesuvius in AD79 (approximately the same time the forum basilica of London was built), the focus of the elongated monumental space was the Temple of Jupiter, symbol of the Roman state.

    Although a classical temple was constructed to the west of the exterior of Londinium’s Flavian forum, it was clearly separate. No forum in Britannia was dominated by a temple, setting the core of urban space in this province apart from most examples in the rest of the empire.

    The Flavian forum basilica at Londinium is one of the earliest examples to demonstrate this characteristic, along with that at Verulamium (St Albans). There, an inscription links the circa AD79–81 construction to the governor Agricola, who is well known among historians from the celebratory biography written by his son-in-law, Tacitus.

    The Flavian basilica and forum only stood for about 20 or 30 years, however. With increased prosperity in the early second century, they were demolished and replaced by a new structure which was five times larger, leaving the remains of the first basilica underneath the surface of the later courtyard space.

    The Museum of London will now analyse and publish the results of its find, applying modern methods to advance our understanding of the development of the first forum basilica. We can expect refined dating evidence and an improved understanding of the architecture from the post-excavation analyses. An exhibition space to make the remains visible for the public is also planned.

    Lacey Wallace does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Roman London’s first basilica found under an office block – here’s what it reveals about the ancient city – https://theconversation.com/roman-londons-first-basilica-found-under-an-office-block-heres-what-it-reveals-about-the-ancient-city-249980

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to be happy with what you have – and avoid the trap of comparison

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Joshua Forstenzer, Senior Lecturer in Philosophy and Co-Director of the Centre for Engaged Philosophy, University of Sheffield

    Alphavector/Shutterstock

    In many ways, I feel like we shouldn’t be happy with what we have. We live in a world of tremendous inequality and cruelty, running towards an environmental wall. Not just that, but some of the best people I know are chronic persistors: they know how not to accept the unacceptable.

    But we also live in an economy that profits from and purposefully generates private feelings of lack, want, comparison and envy. Somewhat counter-intuitively, this envy often spurs on the feelings of lack and want, rather than the other way around. This is the genius of advertising: to generate “perceived” (aka fake) needs. I see someone living a “good” life – exciting, sexy, creative – and now I want what they have: the shoes, watch, holiday, you name it.

    Envy requires comparison. And comparison requires a scale by which to rank ourselves. Popular culture offers quite a few. Being the object of sexual desire (think of “matches” on dating apps) for example, or digital social connectivity (think of “followers” or “likes”). These can all play a role in shaping your sense of personal success or failure.

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    Sometimes, these are presented in a unified pseudo-metric of success. Take for example the idea of a “high-value man”. The parts of the internet that use the concept tend to celebrate having money, a wide social network and being useful to others. This often veers into celebrating material wealth and superficial self improvement as the path to success and sexual attractiveness. The viral TikTok song I’m Looking for a Man in Finance is an only mildly exaggerated spoof of this ideal.

    The implicit assumption is that having more “good things” than others means being more valuable as a person. But behind this there are a host of hidden assumptions – not least that you can “own” the genuinely valuable things in life (as opposed to being them).

    These hidden assumptions usually reveal deep seated shame – the feeling that you are not enough as you are. And that you are not entitled to set the parameters that define the success or failure of your own life.

    Feeling bad about yourself is not always unhealthy. A healthy negative feeling lets you know if you have done something wrong, or acted in a manner that does not meet your own moral standards. This feeling calls for you to change your ways.

    Shame can be very psychologically painful.
    Alphavector/Shutterstock

    The unhealthy feeling, that I am calling “shame”, is not merely the feeling of embarrassment or moral doubt. Rather, it is (to follow vulnerability researcher Brené Brown’s definition) “the intensely painful feeling or experience of believing that we are flawed and therefore unworthy of love and belonging”.

    This feeling is so psychologically painful that you may reflexively do all you can to remain unaware of it. This denial means that you can start to see your own critical inner voice (itself shaped by past negative experiences) as animated by an “objective” social reality, telling you not just that you’re failing, but that you are a failure. This is often called “projection”.

    Other times, when you can bear to consciously feel this emotion, you may seek to negotiate with it and offer remedial actions to the universe to make up for recurrent feelings of worthlessness. In darker times still, shame can overtake your whole life, paralysing you and creeping into the quietest parts of your private self.

    How to combat shame and be happy with what you have

    Shame can be a remarkably sticky emotion. Identifying and interrogating it can be helpful. Working on revising how you understand your self and your relationship to others can also help. The options are many, but for the sake of illustration here are three that speak to me.

    1. Stoicism

    Stoics believed that your essential nature is stable and the project of life is to fulfil this nature and flourish. When making judgments, people ascribe value to an imagined state of affairs (“it would be really great if I were thinner”) and a belief that a specific course of action will make it a reality (“going without chocolate will return the figure I had in my teens”).

    A stoic approach means connecting with your community.
    Alphavector/Shutterstock

    Both of these can be false, because the things you desire can actually be bad for you, and you have less control over the future than you tend to think. Stoics thought people should try to get the relationship between their emotional state and the goods they pursue into harmony, seeking self-mastery in order to flourish.

    To this end, stoic ethics demand that you recognise and cultivate habits that put you in touch with your own nature within the wider world – starting from the self, expanding to the family, the community, the state, humanity and ultimately the cosmos.

    2. Existentialism

    In contrast, existentialism requires paying attention to the lack of any ultimate purpose in human life. No one thing can ever fully define who you are. Your capacity to reinvent yourself, to value something new, to start a fresh project, is yours alone.

    Existentialists define life’s meaning for themselves.
    Alphavector/Shutterstock

    The empty feeling of meaninglessness you sometimes encounter when you have finally achieved a long sought after goal (like getting that big promotion) can be dizzying. But this feeling is a reminder of the fact that nothing in your nature demands that you achieve any one thing. It’s up to you.

    You must face authentically the fact that you are free and therefore responsible for your projects and the meaning you give to them.

    3. Humanistic psychotherapy

    A humanistic psychotherapeutic perspective offers a middle way. It invites you to look upon yourself with compassion, seeing yourself as complex, responsible and yet also imperfect and vulnerable, always involved in a richly evolving tapestry of relationships that ultimately gives meaning and purpose to your life.

    In humanistic psychotherapy, our relationships give life meaning.
    Alphavector/Shutterstock

    This means that relationships and the recognition you give and derive from them provide the only solid basis for confronting that most important question – “who am I?” – ultimately seeing you through your darkest times. But this means that you need these relationships to be genuine, kind and honest so that you can see yourself and others for the frail, evolving and unique individuals that we all are.

    Joshua Forstenzer’s work receives funding from the Yale Center for Faith and Culture as part of its Templeton-funded Life Worth Living project (https://lifeworthliving.yale.edu/). He is also a consultant to North Consulting as part of the LIFE Erasmus+ project (https://www.kmop.gr/projects-vf/news-life-worth-living/) which uses text-based pedagogic methods to facilitate wellbeing conversations about meaning and purpose with teachers and school leaders in five European countries.

    – ref. How to be happy with what you have – and avoid the trap of comparison – https://theconversation.com/how-to-be-happy-with-what-you-have-and-avoid-the-trap-of-comparison-235476

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Britain’s unearned wealth has ballooned – a modest capital tax could help avoid austerity and boost the economy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stewart Lansley, Visiting Fellow, School of Policy Studies, University of Bristol

    Canary Wharf in London. I Wei Huang/Shutterstock

    Inheriting the worst set of public finances for decades, Labour was always going to face an uphill struggle trying to fund improvements to the UK’s public services.

    Inflated debt and recent hikes in the cost of borrowing mean the government is faced with stark choices. For it will be difficult to meet the chancellor’s own tight fiscal rules without further tax rises or cuts in public spending.

    But as the former chief economist at the Bank of England, Andy Haldane, has warned, further spending cuts would be “deeply counterproductive”.

    One solution for avoiding ongoing austerity lies in raising a higher proportion of taxes from assets. For despite the UK enjoying a long personal wealth boom, little of this boom is the result of new wealth creation or higher productivity.

    Much of it is unearned. Some is the product of corporate wealth extraction, where dividend payments and personal fortunes have have been prioritised over the long-term health of a company. Some privatised water firms, for example, have been turned into cash cows for their owners.

    Another large part of British unearned wealth is the product of state-induced asset inflation. Since 1999, house prices in England have risen almost three times faster than incomes.

    This kind of asset inflation is a classic example of “passive accumulation”. Or, as the 19th-century philosopher John Stuart Mill described it, getting rich in your sleep.

    As a result, household wealth currently stands at over six times the UK’s GDP. It was three times in the 1970s.

    Yet while Britain is asset rich, its tax system is heavily based on earnings from work. Taxes on income from dividends, capital gains and inheritance make a tiny contribution to the public purse.

    This is a fundamental flaw of the tax system which does little to dent the growing concentration of wealth owned by the few. Through political inertia, the tax system has failed to catch up with the growing importance of wealth over income.

    Inherit the earth?

    The fallout from the low taxation on wealth is well illustrated by the role of inheritance.

    Levels of wealth passed on after death in the UK have been rising sharply. Over the next three decades, some millennials are expected to inherit a staggering £5.5 trillion, dwarfing all previous transfers of wealth between generations.

    The lion’s share of this transfer will go to the most affluent. The lifetime wealth of those with parents in the richest fifth will see their wealth grow by 29% – compared with 5% for those born to the poorest fifth.

    This will only intensify the reproduction of the wealth divide of the past.

    Extending the tax base is not just about fairness or revenue raising. Asset holdings are often little more than unused resources, while big inter-generational wealth transfers can play a counterproductive role in the economy.

    Over a third of the UK’s wealth is stored in property (with the rest in pensions, savings and possessions). This is mostly only realised when passed on through inheritance , where its benefits accrue to the already privileged. Little of this process contributes to more productive activity, with one of its most malign effects being to fuel higher house prices, because the money is largely reinvested in property.

    The unfairness of inherited wealth has long been recognised. The patron saint of economics, Adam Smith called it “manifestly absurd”.

    Farmers have protested against Labour’s plans for inheritance tax.
    Mark Anthony Ray/Shutterstock

    A modest and phased rise in capital taxation would help to reduce the passive role played by wealth holdings. Even small changes would release funds which could be used to improve social infrastructure from schools to hospitals.

    One approach would be to build on the existing tax system through higher rates and fewer reliefs and loopholes. The second would be to introduce new taxes.

    In her first budget, Rachel Reeves took steps to raise revenue through the first option, from both inheritance and capital gains tax. But these were too modest to alter the overwhelming dominance of tax on earnings.

    A more fundamental shift would be to reform the existing system of council tax with a larger number of tax bands at the top. Still based on 1991 property values, this is perhaps the least defensible tax in Britain. The most effective alternative would be to replace council tax and stamp duty with a single proportionate “property tax”.

    Another option would be for a modest annual 1% tax on wealth over £2 million, which has the potential to raise around £16 billion a year, or double that on wealth over £1 million.

    Such a measure could be sold politically as a “solidarity tax” to help pay for the things the UK needs. And while governments have been wary of the political reaction to higher taxes on wealth, the tide is turning.

    Those supporting higher taxes on wealth include the Conservative-aligned think tank Bright Blue and an influential campaign group called the Patriotic Millionaires. There is also growing public support.

    Continued public spending austerity would drive more years of stagnation. It would also be politically suicidal for this government, as it was for Labour in 1931 and in the 1970s. But harnessing a little more of the country’s immense private wealth would make the tax system more equitable and by providing the resources to boost social investment, ease the path to economic recovery.

    Stewart Lansley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Britain’s unearned wealth has ballooned – a modest capital tax could help avoid austerity and boost the economy – https://theconversation.com/britains-unearned-wealth-has-ballooned-a-modest-capital-tax-could-help-avoid-austerity-and-boost-the-economy-247970

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Surfer’s ear: the condition that might leave wild swimmers and surfers with hearing loss

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dan Baumgardt, Senior Lecturer, School of Physiology, Pharmacology and Neuroscience, University of Bristol

    Surfer’s ear happens when growths develop on the bones of the auditory canal. speedshutter Photography/ Shutterstock

    Cold water swimming, paddleboarding and surfing are all popular pastimes – with millions of people in the UK regularly participating in at least one type of outdoor watersport each year.

    But those bravely breaking the waves may not realise they could actually be putting themselves at risk of hearing loss due to external auditory canal exostosis – better known as surfer’s ear.

    Surfer’s ear affects the auditory canal – the thin tube which conveys sound waves from our surroundings, channelling them towards the sensory organs which generate our sense of hearing.

    These inner portions of the ear are shielded by bone. This is because the anatomical structures that turn air pressure waves into sounds – the eardrum, ossicles and cochlea – are very small, very sensitive and would be easily and irreparably damaged if not protected.

    Ideally, our ear canals should be clear and unobstructed. Sure, sometimes they can get clogged up with wax and even sometimes foreign bodies can work their way inside (such as peas, plasticine or even bugs).



    Read more:
    What bodily secretions like blood, wax and tears can tell us about our health

    But surfer’s ear causes an obstruction of the ear canal in a different manner. Growths start to develop on the bone which lines the auditory canal.

    As these growths continue to develop, they push into the canal – effectively narrowing the space inside. In doing so, this can prevent the conduction of sound waves getting through to the eardrum. One symptom patients with surfer’s ear may notice as a result is hearing loss.

    Other associated problems may arise, too. The ear canal produces wax. Any narrowing of the canal will more easily retain wax, but also water – not just from swimming, but from wet weather or taking a shower. An accumulation of both in the canal can worsen hearing loss and raise the risk of developing an ear infection.

    But what causes surfer’s ear in the first place?

    The cause appears to lie in repeated exposure to cold water and high winds – which most surfers encounter while riding a wave, or tumbling off one. It appears to be a problem unique to humans, perhaps because of the configuration of their ears.

    While researchers aren’t entirely sure why cold exposure causes the bone to grow abnormally, it’s possible that the ear’s natural response to prolonged cold (which irritates the eardrum) is to create a bigger shield for it. Cold water and wind may stimulate bone cells called osteoblasts, causing new bone to grow – offering more protection.

    It’s important to note that surfer’s ear is different from swimmer’s ear – a condition which you may be more familiar with. Though both can arise from water immersion.

    Swimmer’s ear, also called otitis externa, is a form of ear infection. It typically results in pain and discharge, and can arise from water accumulating in the ear canal, which then acts as a breeding ground for bacteria. Narrowing of the ear canal can worsen the problem, so swimmer’s ear can also be associated with surfer’s ear.

    Surfer’s ear is distinct from swimmer’s ear, where water accumulates in the ear canal.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/ Shutterstock

    It’s estimated that 3-6% of the general population may have some form of exostosis. But the condition does appear to overwhelmingly affect surfers – with one systematic review finding the condition affected an average of around 68% of surfers.

    However, surfer’s ear is not unique to surfers. Any sport which exposes an athlete to cold water and wind might result in the same effect. These include wild or outdoor swimming, windsurfing and kayaking.

    There’s also a cultural and geographical difference in prevalence across the globe. It’s estimated that 10% of Australians surf, and potentially raising the risk.

    You don’t even have to venture into the water to develop surfer’s ear, either. Some research suggests people living near the coast have an increased risk of developing surfer’s ear as they’re more likely to be exposed to cold winds. Other cases have been observed in patients without a clear cause.

    The condition might also be more common in males – though this may be due to a larger proportion of men participating in both the sport and the research.

    Preventing surfer’s ear

    Some research suggests that using earplugs while in the water can help reduce cold exposure to the ear and lower the risk. There are also specialised hooded wetsuits and bands that can worn as further protective measures.

    Surfer’s ear appears to be a long-term complication, and is more likely to develop from regular exposure, not just an occasional cold water dip. More than ten years of surfing appears to be associated with a greater risk, and more severe canal obstruction.

    For patients who develop severe symptoms – such as hearing loss and persistent ear infections – surgery may be required. The operation, called a canalplasty, involves chiselling or drilling away the excess bone to widen the canal again. Surfers should avoid heading back into the waves for two to three months after the operation until the site has properly healed.

    There’s some indication surfer’s ear may be on the rise – though this could also be because we’re getting better at diagnosing it and nowadays more surfers are aware of the condition.

    The risk of developing surfer’s ear in one or both ears is sadly real. Unfortunately, it appears that only by abstaining from surfing can the condition be averted.

    So if you do plan to go out into the wind and water – whether that’s surfing, paddleboarding or wild swimming – don’t forget your earplugs.

    Dan Baumgardt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Surfer’s ear: the condition that might leave wild swimmers and surfers with hearing loss – https://theconversation.com/surfers-ear-the-condition-that-might-leave-wild-swimmers-and-surfers-with-hearing-loss-249201

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The secret behind Temu’s rock-bottom prices

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Henri Isaac, Maître de conférences en sciences de gestion, Université Paris Dauphine – PSL

    Temu has made a remarkable entry in the global e-commerce landscape, quickly becoming the fifth largest online marketplace in France. Critics claim Temu’s ultra-competitive pricing relies on unfair practices. Yet its success stems from the powerful—and proven—business model of its parent company, Pinduoduo, which started as an online marketplace for fresh fruit…

    In just two years, the Chinese e-commerce platform Temu has emerged as a key contender in the global marketplace. In France, it ranked as the fifth most-visited online commerce platform in October 2024. At the heart of this remarkable achievement are its ultra-low prices, which many observers argue are made possible only through questionable practices, such as poor product quality, dumping, aggressive marketing, and deceptive trade tactics.
    Despite widespread skepticism over its long-term viability, Temu continues to invest heavily in advertising and market penetration, challenging an e-commerce sector where no new player has made a significant breakthrough in the past decade. While other online retailers, like AliExpress and the fashion giant Shein, have disrupted Western markets with similar cutthroat pricing strategies, only Temu has done what few believed possible: outperforming Amazon, the long-standing gold standard for competitive pricing.

    From factory to global store

    Temu’s pricing policies are not revolutionary in China. The platform closely follows the business model of its parent company, Pinduoduo (or PDD Holdings). As Pinduoduo’s international arm, Temu represents China’s ambition to transition from being the world’s factory to becoming the world’s store. Its low prices are not a temporary launch tactic but a fundamental pillar of its long-term strategy.

    Established in Boston in September 2022, Temu is an offshoot of the Chinese e-commerce giant Pinduoduo, founded in 2015 following the success of Pinhaohuo. Introduced by Colin Huang in April that year, Pinhaohuo used WeChat’s group-buying model to sell bulk orders of fresh fruit. Its rapid growth led to the creation of Pinduoduo, which disrupted China’s e-commerce market—long dominated by JD.com and Alibaba—before expanding globally through Temu. Today, Temu operates in 79 countries.

    Reverse auctions and consigned inventory: driving down prices

    At the heart of Temu’s pricing strategy is the Consumer-To-Manufacturer (C2M) model, introduced by Pinduoduo in March 2023. This approach utilizes reverse auctions, where Temu solicits bids from manufacturers, forcing suppliers to compete by offering the lowest possible prices. PDD Holdings sets final product prices and profit margins, and manufacturers deliver products directly to Pinduoduo’s warehouses in China, eliminating the need for Temu to purchase or hold stock. Instead, manufacturers bear storage costs and must take back any unsold items. Payments are typically made quarterly, further easing Temu’s financial burden. In essence, Pinduoduo operates a consigned inventory model.

    Reverse auctions enable Temu to secure the lowest possible prices from the outset, with Pinduoduo’s logistics expertise allowing for rapid order consolidation, creating economies of scale that particularly benefit smaller manufacturers who, without Pinduoduo, would struggle to achieve such demand levels. Additionally, by pooling shipping logistics, Pinduoduo further reduces total product costs compared to direct manufacturer sales.

    Creating a buzz on social media

    On the consumer side, Pinduoduo deploys its group-buying model to drive sales through social media trends. The name Pinduoduo roughly translates as “together, more savings, more fun,” reflecting its core strategy: the more buyers in a group purchase, the lower the price. This tactic has propelled Pinduoduo to become the world’s leading social commerce platform by user numbers, with 694 million users in China alone as of June 2024, according to XQuestMobile China.

    Beyond group purchasing, Pinduoduo has leveraged gamified (gamification) shopping features–widespread in Chinese business culture–to encourage impulse buying, a challenge for most online retailers.

    The company entered the market by strategically targeting overlooked consumer segments, focusing on lower-income shoppers in smaller cities and rural areas, rather than competing for wealthier urban customers dominated by JD.com and Alibaba. This approach led to rapid growth and profitability by 2021. By 2023, Pinduoduo, including Temu, reported $34.879 billion in revenue and a net income of $8.267 billion.

    A commission-free revenue model

    How does Pinduoduo generate revenue? By charging manufacturers for end-customer shipping logistics and marketing services such as product promotion, visibility, and platform placement. Logistics revenue accounts for 38% of the platform’s total earnings, while marketing services contribute 62%.

    Unlike Amazon and other online marketplaces, Pinduoduo does not take commissions on sales. Instead, it operates as a logistics and marketing service provider, facilitating distribution for manufacturers and managing logistics flows.

    This proven revenue framework is key to Pinduoduo’s highly competitive prices. Additionally, the company benefits from a favorable corporate tax rate in China–15% compared to the standard 25% for traditional businesses. By leveraging bulk purchasing, optimized marketing and logistics, and a commission-free structure, Pinduoduo can sustain its low-cost pricing strategy—much like its Chinese e-commerce rival, Shein.

    Favorable customs regulations

    Temu is duplicating the Pinduoduo model abroad. Within this framework, Temu benefits from the U.S. customs tariffs (Section 321 of the Tariff Act of 1930), that exempts goods valued under $800 from customs duties. The EU provides a similar exemption for items under €150 (Article 23 of Regulation 1186/2009). Most of Temu’s products fall below these thresholds, allowing them to be shipped duty-free.

    Within two years, Temu has onboarded over 200,000 retailers, shipped 4 million packages daily from 60 warehouses in China and attracted 467 million users worldwide by offering products 40% to 60% cheaper than Amazon. To rapidly grow its customer base and achieve self-sustaining critical mass in Europe and the U.S., Temu is investing heavily in product subsidies.

    Its online advertising strategy is equally aggressive, with substantial investments in social media ads on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and Snapchat, as well as search engine ranking. While exact figures for these campaigns remain undisclosed, annual reports from PDD Holdings, show its marketing spend–including Temu’s–increased by 34% to approximately €10.7 billion in 2023, with an estimated $4 to 5 billion allocated to Temu alone.

    Temu’s marketing strategy and its slogan, “Shop like a billionaire,” follow the playbook of major digital platforms, where sustained subsidies drive demand and fuel viral engagement. In such models, economies of scale are directly tied to consumer demand—a concept known as the demand-side economy of scope.

    High logistics costs

    Expanding the Pinduoduo model internationally comes with logistical challenges, particularly due to the higher shipping costs of air freight delivery from China, making the current international model vulnerable to potential losses.

    To address this, Temu began transitioning to a new operating model in March 2024, gradually shifting from its initial fully managed approach to a semi-managed one. Under this model, Temu-represented merchants ship products via ocean freight to U.S. warehouses for local distribution.

    Additionally, Temu has engaged the Chinese diaspora in the U.S. to operate “family warehouses” from their homes, including apartments and garages, providing storage, labeling, and shipping services at competitive rates. This strategy attracts smaller merchants who cannot afford large warehouse facilities. It also demonstrates how retailers are adapting to Temu’s evolving logistics model, with the platform primarily managing purchasing and pricing.

    However, Temu has introduced a traditional model, where sellers set their own prices much like eBay, AliExpress, and Amazon. Already rolled out across several European countries, including the UK, Germany, Spain, and France, the model could challenge Temu’s ability to sustain its ultra-low prices.

    If Temu transitions into a more conventional marketplace, how will its low-cost offerings stack up against Amazon? Temu has disrupted the online retail landscape, but can its aggressive pricing strategy stand the test of time?

    Henri Isaac est membre de Renaissance Numérique.

    – ref. The secret behind Temu’s rock-bottom prices – https://theconversation.com/the-secret-behind-temus-rock-bottom-prices-249231

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine peace talks: Trump is bringing Russia back in from the cold and ticking off items on Putin’s wish list

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Rodgers, Reader in International Journalism, City St George’s, University of London

    The meeting now underway in Saudi Arabia between senior delegations from the United States and Russia could be the first step towards an end to the war in Ukraine – and not just an end to the war. The New York Times has reported that the talks may cover issues beyond the battlefield, with the resumption of US-Russia business ties on the table, too.

    Whatever is discussed, Ukraine seems set to lose out.

    The same cannot be said of the long-term occupant of the Kremlin. For 20 years, Vladimir Putin has been working towards what Donald Trump has now given him. Ever since Putin bemoaned the collapse of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century, his foreign policy has been about getting back at least some of the superpower status the Soviet Union enjoyed.

    In one sense, the US president’s overture to Putin to discuss peace in Ukraine has given the Russian president exactly what he wanted: for Washington to treat Moscow with the respect – and perhaps even fear – that the Soviet Union once commanded from the west.

    And in that sense, Trump’s telephone call with the Kremlin represented a huge triumph for Putin. Putin now has a pending invitation back to the top table of world affairs. He has conceded not an inch of occupied Ukrainian territory to get there. Nor has he even undertaken to give back any of what Russian forces have seized since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine three years ago.

    Now his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, is talking to the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio. Meanwhile the annexation of Crimea in 2014 – which is when Russia’s war on Ukraine actually began – seems increasingly likely to be overlooked. The suggestion from the US defence secretary, Pete Hesgeth, last week that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders was “unrealistic” has made clear Washington’s current view on that.

    So far, so good for Putin, who sees the western alliance that has been ranged against him – albeit with varying degrees of enthusiasm and commitment – for the past three years beginning to crack.

    Under Trump, Washington’s policy on Ukraine is showing signs of significant divergence from that of the EU or UK. Putin no doubt sees his determination not to be cowed by western pressure as starting now to lead to longer-term success.



    Read more:
    Europe left scrambling in face of wavering US security guarantees

    Now the two leaders have agreed to meet – a complete reversal of the three years of increasing isolation during Joe Biden’s presidency. And, as we know, the first time the two leaders met for a summit, in Helsinki in 2018, Putin was widely seen as having outwitted Trump. As Trump’s then senior director for European and Russian Affairs, Fiona Hill, recalled in her memoir: “As Trump responded that he believed Putin over his own intelligence analysts, I wanted to end the whole thing.”

    Putin will hardly feel he enters any future negotiation as an underdog. Just by being there, to discuss the most pressing matter for the future of European security with the US president, Putin has achieved part of his long-term goal. Just as in the days of the Soviet Union, leaders from the Kremlin and the White House will meet to discuss European affairs as the preeminent powers on the continent.

    The views of Europeans themselves, especially Ukrainians, are secondary.

    Back to the top table

    If Putin’s 2005 lament for a lost superpower gave a clue to the course his time at the summit of Russian power would take, then he gave yet more clues on the eve of the full-scale invasion. In December 2021, Putin regretted the collapse of the Soviet Union once again.

    This time he said it had a significance far beyond the century in which it happened, saying: “We turned into a completely different country. And what had been built up over 1,000 years was largely lost.”

    Days later, with expectation growing that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine, the foreign ministry in Moscow published a document it called Treaty between The United States of America and the Russian Federation on security guarantees.

    The language chosen is striking today for the references it makes to the Soviet Union, as in article 4: “The United States of America shall undertake to prevent further eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and deny accession to the Alliance to the States of the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.”

    The Biden administration dismissed the treaty as the trolling it represented. But Hegseth’s recent remark, “The United States does not believe that Nato membership for Ukraine is a realistic outcome of a negotiated settlement,” fits right in with Putin’s wish list.

    This is about Russia becoming the international heavyweight the Soviet Union once was. It is also about a turn of events that greatly favours Putin.

    For three years, I have been working on a book, The Return of Russia: From Yeltsin to Putin, the Story of a Vengeful Kremlin. My research included interviews with leading policymakers, among them Jens Stoltenberg, who served as secretary general of Nato between 2014 and 2024. When we spoke in September 2023, I took the opportunity to ask him how he saw the coming months in the war in Ukraine. He told me:

    Only the Ukrainians that can decide what is an acceptable solution. But the stronger they are on the battlefield, the stronger they will be on the negotiating table and therefore our responsibility is to support them … but it’s for Ukrainian to make the hard decisions on the battlefield. And of course at the end at the negotiating table.

    Trump’s démarche towards a deal appears to ignore that logic, and strengthens Putin’s hand before negotiations have even started.

    If it does lead to an end to the war now, there is nothing to say that Putin’s long view of history won’t encourage him to go to war again in a few years. And he’ll be better prepared to capture more territory than he has already in the last three blood-soaked years.

    James Rodgers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine peace talks: Trump is bringing Russia back in from the cold and ticking off items on Putin’s wish list – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-peace-talks-trump-is-bringing-russia-back-in-from-the-cold-and-ticking-off-items-on-putins-wish-list-249982

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to win an election? Focus on persuasion, not policy

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Robert Danisch, Professor, Department of Communication Arts, University of Waterloo

    Ontario residents will soon elect a new government, and Canadians should expect a federal election this spring.

    Elections matter. They are opportunities for democracies to enact the bedrock principle that leaders are accountable to the citizenry — and for citizens to examine how communication practices inhibit or enhance democratic life.

    For politicians, elections pose a specific, clear communication challenge: How does a politician persuade a voter?

    Persuade voters

    Success in an election requires persuasion. Too often, though, politicians misunderstand the process of persuasion. The most common mistake is to believe that explaining a specific policy proposal will influence voters.

    Ontario Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie began her campaign, for example, touting platform doors for Toronto subway stops. This is a sure sign Crombie will fail to persuade a plurality of voters.

    Why? Because Crombie is mistakenly thinking about communication as a process of transmitting information — transmit the right information or policy idea and the public will nod in agreement. That’s not how communication works.

    Science communicators call this the “deficit model” of communication (the public lacks information; once they get it, they change their behaviour).

    Motivate voters; control the narrative

    There’s little evidence that information sharing is persuasive, and popular policy positions routinely fail to persuade voters (a casual look at the last presidential election in the United States demonstrates this). Politicians, of course, want to talk about policy, but policy is how one governs — not how one persuades.

    Politicians need to motivate voters, not inform them. Ancient orators like Demosthenes and Cicero knew this, as did former U.S. president Barack Obama and even authoritarian leaders like Hugo Chavez.

    Explaining policy positions is not how to win an election.

    Crombie’s proposal for platform edge doors reveals a deeper communication problem. A policy like this implies a frame, or a map, through which people are invited to see the world.

    Crombie’s policy proposal suggests that the world is a dangerous place. If we accept that frame, then we are likely to feel fear for our safety and imagine the government as our protector — this is the likely effect of her policy talk.

    This is exactly the frame that conservative politicians often promote. In elections, the party that controls the frame wins.

    The frame implied by any policy matters more than the content of the policy in an election. Another way to understand the power of language is to think of a simple phrase like “tax relief.” For years, left-leaning political parties have advocated for middle class “tax relief.”

    But this frame assumes that taxes are a burdensome infringement (the word “relief” signifies some burden that we need relief from). That is the assumption of right-leaning political parties.

    The more politicians on the left continue to portray taxes this way, the more persuasive the parties on the right become.

    Whose values?

    The important lesson here is that politicians need to have the conversation they want, not the conversation their opponents want. Donald Trump’s most powerful communication skill is forcing the media and his opponents onto his conversational terrain.

    Trump’s oppenent, Kamala Harris, tried to talk values. But her messaging was often too confusing, too complex and too varied to be persuasive, especially compared to Trump’s repetitive drumbeat of value-based accusations.

    Consider the broader frame that government’s job is to help the economy. Some have argued “the economy” is a fiction, a rhetorical construction that suits right-leaning political parties. Whenever the left advocates for a policy that intends to help “the economy” (a higher minimum wage, for example), they recirculate and reaffirm a conservative frame.



    Read more:
    Why Donald Trump’s words work, and what to do about it

    At the core of these frames are often a set of values: freedom is good, government can’t be trusted, the economy matters most. Messaging that focuses on why is much more effective than messaging that focuses on what and how.

    When politicians talk about values more than they provide information, they are more likely to get attention and cause reactions. Values talk — about what’s good or bad, right or wrong — tends to target the more primal, limbic part of our brain, which can cause people to feel motivated to act.

    Crombie, therefore, needs to explicitly articulate her values, why she is running for office, and make sure to implicitly frame any policy suggestion through attention to those values. Right now, she is implying conservative values through liberal policies — that won’t work.

    Stories reinforce the frame

    Values tend to come wrapped in the stories we tell about ourselves and our moment. Marshall Ganz, Harvard sociologist and community organizer, trained Barack Obama’s campaign volunteers in a form of storytelling, based on values, that was intended to motivate people.

    Good stories have villains and heroes, along with challenges or choices. Most importantly, good stories create a feeling of identification — a “we” that navigates a set of challenges or choices.

    Stories that make people feel hope, confidence, solidarity, anger and urgency are particularly adept at motivation. And these stories are also able to reinforce the frame through which we view the world, causing a story to “feel true” for voters even if it contains factual inaccuracies.

    The story that resonates most powerfully creates a sense of identification and makes a specific frame seem true drives electoral outcomes.

    Vision of the future

    The very best stories have a clear vision of the future. Too often politicians fixate on, and lament, problems. All of that problem talk can inhibit motivation. A clear picture of an ideal future shows the citizenry how a story ends.

    These imagined futures can be inspiring in ways that drive action. Painting a compelling tomorrow is a central part of political persuasion.

    These aspects of persuasion have been true for centuries. Our moment, however, adds a complicating element — our social media systems.

    Scholars of rhetoric have long known that repetition is persuasive. Social media amplifies the power of persuasion. This might not improve democratic decision-making, but politicians must still recognize how slogans, memes and sound bites all become the resources for repetition and the grounds in which specific frames or stories begin to dominate conversations.

    Controlling what gets repeated and using figures that are repeatable are necessary contemporary considerations.

    To be clear, if you want to win an election: control the frame, talk about values more than policy, tell a compelling story, paint a bright future, and find ways to repeat, repeat, repeat.

    Robert Danisch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How to win an election? Focus on persuasion, not policy – https://theconversation.com/how-to-win-an-election-focus-on-persuasion-not-policy-248733

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine isn’t invited to its own peace talks. History is full of such examples – and the results are devastating

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Matt Fitzpatrick, Professor in International History, Flinders University

    (From left to right): Neville Chamberlain, Édouard Daladier, Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, and Italian Foreign Minister Galeazzo Ciano before signing the Munich Agreement, which gave the Sudetenland to Germany. German Federal Archives/Wikimedia Commons

    Ukraine has not been invited to a key meeting between American and Russian officials in Saudi Arabia this week to decide what peace in the country might look like.

    Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine will “never accept” any decisions in talks without its participation to end Russia’s three-year war in the country.

    A decision to negotiate the sovereignty of Ukrainians without them – as well as US President Donald Trump’s blatantly extortionate attempt to claim half of Ukraine’s rare mineral wealth as the price for ongoing US support – reveals a lot about how Trump sees Ukraine and Europe.

    But this is not the first time large powers have colluded to negotiate new borders or spheres of influence without the input of the people who live there.

    Such high-handed power politics rarely ends well for those affected, as these seven historical examples show.

    1. The Scramble for Africa

    In the winter of 1884–85, German leader Otto von Bismarck invited the powers of Europe to Berlin for a conference to formalise the division of the entire African continent among them. Not a single African was present at the conference that would come to be known as “The Scramble for Africa”.

    Among other things, the conference led to the creation of the Congo Free State under Belgian control, the site of colonial atrocities that killed millions.

    Germany also established the colony of German South West Africa (present-day Namibia), where the first genocide of the 20th century was later perpetrated against its colonised peoples.

    How the boundaries of Africa changed after the Berlin conference.
    Wikimedia Commons/Somebody500

    2. The Tripartite Convention

    It wasn’t just Africa that was divided up this way. In 1899, Germany and the United States held a conference and forced an agreement on the Samoans to split their islands between the two powers.

    This was despite the Samoans expressing a desire for either self-rule or a confederation of Pacific states with Hawai’i.

    As “compensation” for missing out in Samoa, Britain received uncontested primacy over Tonga.

    German Samoa came under the rule of New Zealand after the first world war and remained a territory until 1962. American Samoa (in addition to several other Pacific islands) remain US territories to this day.

    3. The Sykes-Picot Agreement

    As the first world war was well under way, British and French representatives sat down to agree how they’d divide up the Ottoman Empire after it was over. As an enemy power, the Ottomans were not invited to the talks.

    Together, England’s Mark Sykes and France’s François Georges-Picot redrew the Middle East’s borders in line with their nations’ interests.

    The Sykes-Picot Agreement ran counter to commitments made in a series of letters known as the Hussein-McMahon correspondence. In these letters, Britain promised to support Arab independence from Turkish rule.



    Read more:
    What was the Sykes-Picot agreement, and why does it still affect the Middle East today?

    The Sykes-Picot Agreement also ran counter to promises Britain made in the Balfour Declaration to back Zionists who wanted to build a new Jewish homeland in Ottoman Palestine.

    The agreement became the wellspring of decades of conflict and colonial misrule in the Middle East, the consequences of which continue to be felt today.

    Map showing the areas of control and influence in the Middle East agreed upon between the British and French.
    The National Archives (UK)/Wikimedia Commons

    4. The Munich Agreement

    In September 1938, British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain and French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier met with Italy’s fascist dictator, Benito Mussolini, and Germany’s Adolf Hitler to sign what became known as the Munich Agreement.

    The leaders sought to prevent the spread of war throughout Europe after Hitler’s Nazis had fomented an uprising and began attacking the German-speaking areas of Czechoslovakia known as the Sudetenland. They did this under the pretext of protecting German minorities. No Czechoslovakians were invited to the meeting.

    The meeting is still seen by many as the “Munich Betrayal” – a classic example of a failed appeasement of a belligerent power in the false hope of staving off war.

    5. The Évian Conference

    In 1938, 32 countries met in Évian-les-Bains, France, to decide how to deal with Jewish refugees fleeing persecution in Nazi Germany.

    Before the conference started, Britain and the US had agreed not to put pressure on one another to lift the quota of Jews they would accept in either the US or British Palestine.

    While Golda Meir (the future Israeli leader) attended the conference as an observer, neither she nor any other representatives of the Jewish people were permitted to take part in the negotiations.

    The attendees largely failed to come to an agreement on accepting Jewish refugees, with the exception of the Dominican Republic. And most Jews in Germany were unable to leave before Nazism reached its genocidal nadir in the Holocaust.

    6. The Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact

    As Hitler planned his invasion of Eastern Europe, it became clear his major stumbling block was the Soviet Union. His answer was to sign a disingenuous non-aggression treaty with the USSR.

    Joseph Stalin and Joachim von Ribbentrop after the signing of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
    German Federal Archives/Wikimedia Commons

    The treaty, named after Vyacheslav Molotov and Joachim von Ribbentrop (the Soviet and German foreign ministers), ensured the Soviet Union would not respond when Hitler invaded Poland. It also carved up Europe into Nazi and Soviet spheres. This allowed the Soviets to expand into Romania and the Baltic states, attack Finland and take its own share of Polish territory.

    Unsurprisingly, some in Eastern Europe view the current US-Russia talks over Ukraine’s future as a revival of this kind of secret diplomacy that divided the smaller nations of Europe between large powers in the second world war.

    7. The Yalta Conference

    With the defeat of Nazi Germany imminent, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill, Soviet dictator Josef Stalin and US President Franklin D Roosevelt met in 1945 to decide the fate of postwar Europe. This meeting came to be known as the Yalta Conference.

    Alongside the Potsdam Conference several months later, Yalta created the political architecture that would lead to the Cold War division of Europe.

    At Yalta, the “big three” decided on the division of Germany, while Stalin was also offered a sphere of interest in Eastern Europe.

    This took the form of a series of politically controlled buffer states in Eastern Europe, a model some believe Putin is aiming to emulate today in eastern and southeastern Europe.

    Matt Fitzpatrick receives funding from the Australian Research Council. He is affiliated with the History Council of South Australia.

    – ref. Ukraine isn’t invited to its own peace talks. History is full of such examples – and the results are devastating – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-isnt-invited-to-its-own-peace-talks-history-is-full-of-such-examples-and-the-results-are-devastating-250049

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: When a bishop called on Trump to ‘have mercy’, she was following the old Christian tradition of parrhesia

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Morwenna Ludlow, Professor of Christian History and Theology, University of Exeter

    Ambrose.

    When Bishop Mariann Budde closed her sermon at the National Prayer Service at Washington National Cathedral on January 21 she called on Donald Trump, who was sitting in front of her, “to have mercy upon the people in our country who are scared now”.

    Trump demanded an apology later the same day from “the so-called Bishop” who he said was “nasty in tone”. Republican congressman Mike Collins even suggested that Budde (a US citizen) should be deported.

    The bishop was building on a long tradition of Christian leaders using bold speech. But the idea of bold speech goes back further – to the concept of “parrhesia” in democratic Athens when every freeborn male citizen had the right to speak freely in public debates.

    French philosopher Michel Foucault highlighted that with the decline of democracy, parrhesia came to mean boldly speaking truth to power. For instance, in the Roman Empire, it meant having the bravery to speak to an emperor, a governor, or one’s master as if one was their equal.

    Early Christians picked up on this use of the term in the New Testament. The Acts of the Apostles describes the arrest of Peter and John for healing and preaching in Jerusalem and recounts that the assembled “rulers, elders and scribes” were amazed to hear such parrhesia from “uneducated and ordinary men”.

    The apostles were so popular that the council released them after vainly threatening them to keep quiet. Peter and John’s own community of followers was even said to be so inspired by their bold example that they prayed to be given parrhesia too, a prayer which was immediately answered by the gift of the Holy Spirit (Acts 4:29, 31). Parrhesia here is seen as a powerful divine gift which enables ordinary people to challenge dominant religious authorities.

    Several sermons on martyrs from John Chrysostom (who was apppointed as the archbishop of Constantinople in AD397) close with exhortations to emulate a martyr’s parrhesia. Chrysostom’s Discourse on Blessed Babylas and against the Greeks describes a bishop who reprimanded an emperor for murdering a child hostage. Chrysostom praises Bishop Babylas for moderate parrhesia, guided by reason, keeping anger and other emotions in check. It recalls the advice of the philosopher Plutarch in “How to tell a flatterer from a friend”: parrhesia must be respectful, in due measure and at the right moment.

    Babylas’s moderate parrhesia produces astonished admiration from the crowd, but it provoked the outraged emperor to order Babylas’ execution.

    Such stories set expectations for the behaviour of bishops even under Christian emperors. Scholars have shown how bishops have exploited their educational and social standing to leverage limited influence with governors and sometimes even emperors.

    Gregory of Nazianzus tells how his friend Basil, a 4th century bishop, faced down the rage of an imperial representative who “roared like a lion till most men dared not approach him”, threatening “confiscation, banishment, torture, death”. When Basil refused to back down, the astonished official declared that no-one had spoken to him with such parrhesia. “Perhaps you’ve not met a bishop before,” Basil replied. “Generally, we know our place and we submit to the law. But where the interests of God are at stake, we care about nothing else.”

    Two of the most famous examples of bishops who exercised parrhesia against imperial authority were the aforementioned Chrysostom and Ambrose (who became bishop of Milan in AD374). Both Chrysostom and Ambrose wrote substantial treatises which (among other things) defended the priest’s right to censure whomever was guilty of sin. Chrysostom warns that fear of powerful authorities causes people to flatter them rather than speaking the truth. Ambrose makes a similar point, reminding his audience that John the Baptist did not flatter King Herod, despite having reason to fear him. These comments resonate with Foucault’s observation that a speaker addressing someone more powerful must choose between flattery and parrhesia.

    Bishop Budde speaking at Washington National Cathedral.

    But the point of these examples is that by the 4th century there was a strong belief that part of the job of being a bishop was being prepared to speak boldly against wrongdoing – even if the wrongdoer was an emperor. And the power of their parrhesia was not so much the success (or otherwise) of their requests, but the way their bold speech sent ripples out into the wider community.

    It is here that we can identify resonances with the case of Bishop Budde. First, parrhesia involves a direct, public but personal appeal to someone who could normally expect to be in authority over the speaker (the Jewish council of elders, a Roman governor).

    The appeal is often made respectfully, but it is still risky and disruptive. It challenges the addressee’s declared vision of the truth, setting against it the speaker’s own sources of authority, including appeals to the divine.

    In Budde’s case too we find this tension between respect and challenge. In an interview for the New Yorker, Budde reflected that she “needed to honor the office of the President and the fact that millions of people placed their trust in him”.

    By addressing Trump respectfully, she acknowledged he had the authority to be merciful. But in drawing on the authority of scripture, Christian tradition and her episcopal role, she challenged the president’s moral authority on key questions of public policy.

    Basil’s parrhesia astonished the imperial representative, but gave his friend Gregory a model for his own episcopal ministry. Similarly, Budde had a two-fold audience in mind. She used parrhesia respectfully but firmly to challenge the authority of a powerful person who did not expect to be challenged and was outraged when they were.

    It is evident that Budde’s past experience of criticising Trump (she commented in the New York Times about Trump posing for a photo with a Bible in 2020) left her in no doubt that her “audacious” direct appeal to the president would bring anger on herself. But she also addressed a wider audience, intending that “people overhearing me talk to Trump” would hear words of solidarity and hope for them.

    The power of Budde’s speech does not depend on the success of her appeal for mercy but in the disruptive nature of her challenge to Trump’s moral authority and the way it rippled out into wider audiences, provoking astonishment, anger or praise.

    History prompts us to look harder at the power dynamics that create such varied and highly charged emotional responses. Now, as in the ancient world, it is in the absence of an open hearing for all, when bold speech is needed.

    Morwenna Ludlow will receive funding from the Leverhulme Trust for a project on ‘God and Good Speech’ for two years from September 2025. She is a priest in the Church of England and has an honorary role as Canon Theologian at Exeter Cathedral.

    – ref. When a bishop called on Trump to ‘have mercy’, she was following the old Christian tradition of parrhesia – https://theconversation.com/when-a-bishop-called-on-trump-to-have-mercy-she-was-following-the-old-christian-tradition-of-parrhesia-248494

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Geoengineering is politically off-limits – could a Trump presidency change that?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Hugh Hunt, Professor of Engineering Dynamics and Vibration, University of Cambridge

    One possible plan involves adding clouds in the upper atmosphere to reflect away sunlight. Thiago B Trevisan / shutterstock

    Donald Trump’s second presidential term is likely to mean big changes for those of us interested in geoengineering. The term refers to deliberate large-scale manipulation of the climate, perhaps by blocking out some sunlight or directly removing greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. Sometimes called climate engineering, we prefer the term “climate repair”.

    Trump is not the most natural supporter of climate change interventions. He is set to expand oil and gas production hot on the heels of the most terrible wildfires in California. At some point the US could see hurricanes on scales even more extreme than Katrina or Helene.

    Extreme weather will become harder to ignore. Trump could of course downplay any link to climate change but there’s a chance this might trigger him to decide emergency action is required and demand to know more about climate engineering options.

    After all, Trump is close to certain tech figures who like big technological solutions to global problems. He likes to act fast and is prepared to deal with democratic reactions later. In those circumstances he might feel that we should do whatever it takes to deploy new climate-saving strategies at speed.

    The most effective methods for cooling the planet involve making the Earth more reflective so that it absorbs less heat from the sun. One option, known as stratospheric aerosol injection, involves spraying sulphur dioxide into the upper atmosphere to mimic the cooling effect of volcanic eruptions.

    Clouds could also be altered to become more reflective, an option known as marine cloud brightening. We can even make ice in the Arctic more reflective by thickening it during the winter months so that it lasts longer in the summer, reflecting the sun’s heat back into space.

    The 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines added so much ash to the upper atmosphere the world cooled by about 0.5°C for a year.
    James St John / Flickr

    These technologies sound rather fanciful. Some might find them scary. But with the devastation of hurricanes and wildfires, Trump could potentially instruct the US military to give aerosol injection a go. At present, the technology would rely on high-altitude jets to take millions of tonnes of sulphur dioxide up to the stratosphere above the Arctic, and the US has a lot of these planes.

    Alternatively, Trump might take the opposite path and say “this is just part of the natural cycle of weather”. Climate-change deniers or those who believe reducing emissions alone will work to hit the 1.5°C or even 2°C targets may be given a platform to convince us all that there is no need for geoengineering.

    Geoengineering as an investment

    Maybe there is a middle ground. Trump could decide to support geoengineering research to help the insurance industry. If insurance companies will benefit by having fewer storms and fires, then this would be good for the US economy. So perhaps some expenditure on research right now may be a strategic investment.

    Behind the scenes are deep discussions on geoengineering governance. There are some who argue that geoengineering is so risky for the climate (what if the world cools too much? are we prepared for any unintended consequences?) that it shouldn’t be researched – or at least the research should not be funded by governments.

    Others argue that global governance and democratic issues (who is in charge? who gets a say?) need to be addressed before any research can begin. Then there’s the “slippery slope” argument, that once we start then we’ll never stop.

    Until now these kinds of arguments have slowed the pace of research, but Trump could say that the current position is wrong, as it holds back our knowledge of something which might help the US economy. If Trump decides to unlock geoengineering as an opportunity, then he may not just provide funding but instruct the national labs to get on with research at pace, thereby accelerating our knowledge of the different options. With good data we can make informed decisions.

    How much would this cost? It turns out that geoengineering research is not very expensive and Trump may figure that the potential upside is huge. If he gets excited about it, then geoengineering might suddenly capture the imagination of the US public.

    There is increased interest around the world so the situation in the US is being watched closely. With additional funding and instructions from the new president, geoengineering would soon become established in the mainstream.

    Our team at the Centre for Climate Repair in Cambridge are not the only ones thinking about all of this. This is a hot topic and one which is likely to see significant changes in the coming year.

    Hugh Hunt is affiliated with the Centre for Climate Repair at the University of Cambridge. The centre receives funds from various philanthropic sources.

    Shaun Fitzgerald receives funding from Philanthropists, Trusts and Foundations, and Government grants to work on a range of activities including greenhouse gas removal through and climate engineering.

    – ref. Geoengineering is politically off-limits – could a Trump presidency change that? – https://theconversation.com/geoengineering-is-politically-off-limits-could-a-trump-presidency-change-that-248589

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: YouTube at 20: how it transformed viewing in eight steps

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alex Connock, Senior Fellow, Said Business School, University of Oxford

    Chay Tee

    The world’s biggest video sharing platform, YouTube, has just turned 20.

    It was started inauspiciously in February 2005 by former PayPal employees Chad Hurley, Steve Chen and Jawed Karim – with a 19-second video of Karim exploring San Diego Zoo.

    That year, YouTube’s disruption of the media timeline was minimal enough for there to be no mention of it in The Guardian’s coverage of TV’s Digital Revolution at the Edinburgh TV Festival.

    Twenty years on, it’s a different story.

    YouTube is a massive competitor to TV, an engagement beast, uploading as much new video every five minutes as the 2,400 hours BBC Studios produces in a whole year. The 26-year-old YouTube star Mr Beast earned US$85 million (£67 million) in 2024 from videos – ranging from live Call of Duty play-alongs to handing out 1,000 free cataract operations.

    As a business, YouTube is now worth some US$455 billion (2024 Bloomberg estimate). That is a spectacular 275 times return on the US$1.65 billion Google paid for it in 2006. For the current YouTube value, Google could today buy British broadcaster ITV about 127 times.

    YouTube has similar gross revenue (US$36.1 billion in 2024) to the streaming giant Netflix – but without the financial inconvenience of making shows, since most of the content is uploaded for free.

    YouTube’s first video: a 19-second look at the elephants of San Diego Zoo.

    YouTube has 2.7 billion monthly active users, or 40% of the entire global population outside China, where it is blocked. It is also now one of the biggest music streaming sites, and the second biggest social network (to Facebook), plus a paid broadcast channel for 100 million subscribers.

    YouTube has built a video Library of Babel, its expansive shelves lined eclectically with Baby Shark Dance, how to fix septic tanks, who would win a shooting war between Britain and France … and quantum physics.

    The site has taken over global children’s programming to the point where Wired magazine pointed out that the future of this genre actually “isn’t television”. But there are flaws, too: it has been described as a conduit for disinformation by fact checkers.

    So how did all that happen? Eight key innovations have helped YouTube achieve its success.

    1. How new creativity is paid for

    Traditional broadcast and print uses either the risk-on, fixed cost of hiring an office full of staff producers and writers, or the variable but risky approach of one-off commissioning from freelancers. Either way, the channel goes out of pocket, and if the content fails to score with viewers, it loses money.

    YouTube did away with all that, flipping the risk profile entirely to the creator, and not paying upfront at all. It doesn’t have to deal with the key talent going out clubbing all night and being late to the set, not to mention other boring aspects of production like insurance, cash flow or contracts.

    2. The revenue model of media

    YouTube innovated by dividing any earnings with the creator, via an advertising income split of roughly 50% (the exact amount varies in practice). This incentivises creators to study the science of engagement, since it makes them more money. Mr Beast has a team employed just to optimise the thumbnails for his videos.

    3. Advertising

    Alongside parent company Google/Alphabet, and especially with the introduction (March 2007) of YouTube Analytics and other technologies, the site adrenalised programmatic video advertising, where ad space around a particular viewer is digitally auctioned off to the highest buyer, in real time.

    That means when you land on a high-rating Beyoncé video and see a pre-roll ad for Grammarly, the advertiser algorithmically liked the look of your profile, so bid money to show you the ad. When that system works, it is ultra efficient, the key reason why the broad, demographics-based broadcast TV advertising market is so challenged.

    4. Who makes content

    About 50 million people now think they are professional creators, many of them on YouTube. Influencers have used the site to build businesses without mediation from (usually white and male) executives in legacy media.

    This has driven, at its best, a major move towards the democratisation and globalisation of content production. Brazil and Kenya both have huge, eponymous YouTube creator economies, giving global distribution to diverse voices that realistically would been disintermediated in the 20th century media ecology.

    5. The way we tell stories

    Traditional TV ads and films start slow and build to a climax. Not so YouTube videos – and even more, YouTube Shorts – which prioritise a big emotive hit in the first few seconds for engagement, and regular further hits to keep people there. Mr Beast’s leaked internal notes describe how to do sequential escalation, meaning moving to more elaborate or extreme details as a video goes on: “An example of a one thru three minute tactic we would use is crazy progression,” he says, reflecting his deep homework. “I spent basically five years of my life studying virality on YouTube.”

    6. Copyright

    Back in 2015, if someone stole your intellectual property – say, old episodes of Mr Bean – and re-broadcast it on their own channel, you would call a media lawyer and sue. Now there is a better option – Content ID – to take the money instead. Through digital rights monetisation (DRM), owners can algorithmically discover their own content and claim the ad revenue, a material new income stream for producers.

    7. Video technicalities

    Most technical innovations in video production have found their way to the mainstream via YouTube, such as 360-degree, 4k, VR (virtual reality) and other tech acronyms. And now YouTube has started to integrate generative AI into its programme-producing suite for creators, with tight integration of Google’s Veo tools.

    These will offer, according to CEO Neal Mohan, “billions of people around the world access to AI”. This is another competitive threat to traditional producers, because bedroom creators can now make their own visual effects-heavy fan-fiction episodes of Star Wars.

    8. News

    YouTube became a rabbit hole of disinformation, misinformation and conspiracy, via a reinforcement-learning algorithm that prioritises view time but not editorial accuracy. Covid conspiracy fans got to see “5G health risk” or “chemtrail” videos, because the algorithm knew they might like them too.

    How can the big, legacy media brands respond? Simple. By meeting the audience where the viewers are, and putting their content on YouTube. The BBC has 14.7 million YouTube subscribers. ITV is exploiting its catalogue to put old episodes of Thunderbirds on there. Meanwhile in February 2025, Channel 4 also announced success in reaching young viewers via YouTube. Full episode views were “up 169% year-on-year, surpassing 110 million organic views in the UK”.

    Alex Connock has worked or consulted for BBC, Channel 4, ITV and Meta.

    – ref. YouTube at 20: how it transformed viewing in eight steps – https://theconversation.com/youtube-at-20-how-it-transformed-viewing-in-eight-steps-250083

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Europe left scrambling in face of wavering US security guarantees

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    European leaders are scrambling to respond to what looks like the end of reliable US protection of the continent. It is unclear what the “main European countries” (which includes the UK) might be able to agree at a hastily convened meeting in Paris on Monday February 17. But individual countries, including the UK and Germany, have come forward to put concrete offers on the table for Ukraine’s security, which could include putting their troops on the ground.

    This unusual circling of the wagons was triggered by the 2025 Munich Security Conference, which ended the previous day. It brought to a close a week of remarkable upheaval for Europe, leaving no doubt that two already obvious trends in the deteriorating transatlantic relationship accelerated further.

    What the world saw was unabashed US unilateralism when it comes to the war in Ukraine. Ominously, there was also a clear indication of the extent of American intentions to interfere in the domestic political processes of European countries – most notably the upcoming German parliamentary elections on February 23.

    None of this should have come as a surprise. But the full-force assault by Donald Trump’s envoys to Europe was still sobering – especially once all its implications are considered. What was, perhaps, more surprising was that European leaders pushed back and did so in an unusually public and unequivocal way.

    Over the course of just a few days, two of the worst European fears were confirmed. First, the Trump administration is pushing ahead with its idea of a US-Russia deal to end the war in Ukraine. And all the signs are that Washington plans to leave Ukraine and the EU out of any negotiations and to their own devices when it comes to post-ceasefire security arrangements.

    On February 12, the US president announced he had spoken at length with Russian president Vladimir Putin, and subsequently informed Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky of the conversation. The same day, US defence secretary Pete Hegseth, confirmed at a press conference after a meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels that direct negotiations between Russia and the US would begin immediately. They will not include any European or Ukrainian officials, he said.

    Hegseth also poured cold water on any hopes that there would be robust US security guarantees for Ukraine. He explicitly ruled out US troops for any peacekeeping forces deployed by other Nato members, or that any attack on those forces would be considered an attack on the whole alliance under article 5 of the Nato treaty.

    The European response was swift and, at least on paper, decisive. Right after Hegseth’s comments in Brussels, the Weimar+ group (Germany, France, Poland + Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, the EU’s diplomatic service and the European Commission) issued a joint statement reiterating their commitment to enhanced support in defence of Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    On February 14, the EU’s top officials – European council president António Costa and European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen – met with Zelensky on the margins of the conference. They assured him of the EU’s “continued and stable support to Ukraine until a just, comprehensive and lasting peace is reached”.

    The following day, Costa’s speech in Munich reiterated this commitment. Similar to earlier comments by Nato’s secretary general, Mark Rutte, Costa underlined Europe’s determination to “to act better, stronger and faster in building the Europe of defence”.

    But these declarations of the EU’s determination to continue supporting Ukraine do not reflect consensus inside the Union on such a position. Weimar+ only includes a select number of EU member states, institutions and the UK, underlining the continuing difficulties in achieving unanimity on critical security and defence issues. Unsurprisingly, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán, issued a scathing condemnation of the Weimar+ statement as a “sad testament of bad Brusselian leadership”.

    Orbán’s comments play right into many Europeans’ fears about another dark side of Trump’s agenda when it comes to transatlantic relations. As foreshadowed in the influential Project 2025 report by a coalition of conservative US thinktanks, the Trump administration is intent on weakening European unity. This will include preventing the UK from slipping “back into the orbit of the EU” and “developing new allies inside the EU – especially the Central European countries”.

    Opening up divides

    The US vice-president, J.D. Vance, used his speech in Munich to claim that the real threat to European security was not coming from Russia or China, but rather “from within”. He went on to chide “EU commissars” and insinuated that Europe’s current leaders had more in common with the “tyrannical forces on this continent” who lost the cold war.

    In Romania, where presidential elections were cancelled after evidence of massive Russian election interference emerged, opposition parties revelled in Vance’s comments that the move had been based on the “flimsy suspicions of an intelligence agency and enormous pressure from its continental neighbours”. The vice-president has further exacerbated political divisions in a key European and Nato ally right on the border with Ukraine.

    Vance subsequently sought out Alice Weidel, the co-leader of the right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD). The pair reportedly discussed the war in Ukraine, German domestic politics and the so-called brandmauer. This is the agreement between centre-right and left-wing parties in Germany to form a “firewall” to prevent extreme right-wing parties from joining coalitions, which has recently been weakened.

    Their meeting was widely criticised as yet another American attempt for the party to boost its chances at Germany’s upcoming parliamentary elections on February 23. Referring to Germany’s historical experience with Nazism, the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz defended the need to hold the line against far-right political parties like the AfD.

    Polar shift

    There have been many watershed moments and wake-up calls for Europe in the past. What is different now is that a new multipolar order is emerging – and Europe is not one of its poles. Equally importantly, given the determination of this US administration to upend the existing international order, Europe is not a part of any pole anymore either.

    Simultaneously at stake are European unity and the transatlantic relationship. These are the two key pillars that have ensured European security, democracy and prosperity since the end of the second world war. Out of necessity, Europe will most likely have to adjust to a much-weakened transatlantic relationship. But the European project will not survive without unity.

    This is a critical juncture for Europe. The continent needs to define its future place and role in the dysfunctional love triangle of Trump, Putin and Xi, a triumvirate that will shape and dominate the new global order.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    – ref. Europe left scrambling in face of wavering US security guarantees – https://theconversation.com/europe-left-scrambling-in-face-of-wavering-us-security-guarantees-249978

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Feel like you’re in a funk? Here’s what you can do to get out of it – and how you can prevent it from happening in the future

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jolanta Burke, Senior Lecturer, Centre for Positive Health Sciences, RCSI University of Medicine and Health Sciences

    Whatever the reason, there are many things you can do to get out of a funk. Vectorium/ Shutterstock

    Are you feeling worn out? Struggling with lingering sadness, anxiety or feelings of indifference? If so, you might be stuck in a funk.

    There are many reasons you might find yourself in a funk – including returning home after a holiday, not being sure what your goals in life are and a lack of meaning and purpose driving you forward. Sometimes, there’s no clear reason why we find ourselves in a funk.

    Whatever the cause, don’t lose hope. There are many things you can do to turn the way you’re feeling around.

    Ready to make a change? The Quarter Life Glow-up is a new, six-week newsletter course from The Conversation’s UK and Canada editions.

    Every week, we’ll bring you research-backed advice and tools to help improve your relationships, your career, your free time and your mental health – no supplements or skincare required. Sign up here to start your glow-up at any time.

    1. Express yourself

    As obvious as it sounds, one of the best ways to get out of a funk is exploring the reasons you’re feeling this way.

    Try writing down your deepest thoughts and feelings without judgement – no matter how disjointed they are. Or, grab a paintbrush, spray paint, pencil or chalk and express your emotions through art. You might even choose to dance, letting your movements convey what you’re feeling and help you get to the root of your funk.

    Whatever form of self-expression works for you, all that matters is getting your feelings out. This will help you make sense of what’s causing your funk, and may make it easier to overcome.

    2. Remember the good times

    When we’re in a funk, we’re often overwhelmed by feelings of sadness or indifference. It can be hard to reduce these negative emotions – especially since negative feelings serve a purpose, by helping us understand what’s going on inside.

    Instead of trying to banish bad feelings, try instead to layer positive emotions on top of them. This may help balance your emotions out.

    You can do this by closing your eyes and savouring a happy moment from the past when you felt alive, vibrant and fulfilled. Use every sense as you relive those joyful memories.

    3. Connect with someone

    Research shows the most fulfilled people don’t bury themselves in their thoughts when feeling down. Instead, they look outward – engaging with others and their surroundings.

    So when you’re in a funk, try finding ways of connecting, even briefly, with the people around you. Even a simple conversation with a stranger might lift your spirits.

    Or take it a step further if you can and do something kind for someone – or try volunteering. This may help break you out of your low mood by giving you a sense of fulfilment?

    4. Heal in nature

    Nature is shown to improve wellbeing in many ways – such as lowering blood pressure, refreshing your mind and reminding you that you’re part of something larger than yourself.

    A walk in the park may have many benefits for your wellbeing.
    GoodStudio/ Shutterstock

    If you’ve been feeling down, try going for a walk in the park or find a quiet place to stop on a hike. Lift your head to the sky, listen for the birds singing, immerse yourself in the foliage and let the sound of water wash over you. All of these things are linked with better mental health.

    Preventing a funk

    Doing any of these activities even just once can make a difference to the way your feeling. The more often you do them, the better.

    And once you’ve broken out of your funk, there are things you can do to avoid slipping into one in the future.

    1. Build resilience

    Resilience isn’t just about bouncing back. It’s more about finding the right resources to help you get out of a funk – and knowing how to use these resources effectively.

    For example, if connecting with your friends helps boost your wellbeing, this would be considered one of your “resources” that can help break you out of a funk. Of course, schedules can get in the way, so you’ll need to to find a time that works best for everyone.

    This is what resilience is all about. Identifying your go-to resources for preventing those low feelings can help you create a ready-made toolkit to draw from whenever you feel a funk coming on. To build your tool-kit, think about the things that made the biggest difference in pulling you out of a funk the last time.

    2. Cultivate hope

    Hope isn’t just wishful thinking. It’s about cultivating the will to keep moving forward and finding a way to get there. It’s a pathway to a better life, keeping us focused on growth.

    But one of the challenges in building hope is the lack of a clear vision of where we want to be. To overcome this, take some time to imagine your best-case scenario – what your life would look like ten years from now if everything you’ve ever hoped for came true.

    Spend 20 minutes writing it down. Don’t stop to worry about spelling or grammar (this is just for you). Repeat this exercise as often as needed to create your ideal future.

    When you’re finished, write down how you can achieve what you hope for. Having a well-defined vision of your best possible self can help keep you motivated and prevent you from feeling stuck – and will also give you a reserve of hope to draw upon when facing hard times.

    3. Practise self-acceptance

    Most importantly, focus on practising self-acceptance. Everyone experiences rough patches, so don’t be hard on yourself for being in a funk — it’s just a temporary state.

    Embrace where you are and accept yourself fully, regardless of your current situation. And remember that self-acceptance doesn’t mean resignation. It’s about acknowledging, “It’s okay to be me,” while also envisioning how you want “me” to evolve in the future. With this mindset, you can work towards becoming the person you aspire to be.

    Unlike trees, which are rooted in place, we have the flexibility to grow and change. Remember this the next time you start feeling stuck.

    Jolanta Burke does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Feel like you’re in a funk? Here’s what you can do to get out of it – and how you can prevent it from happening in the future – https://theconversation.com/feel-like-youre-in-a-funk-heres-what-you-can-do-to-get-out-of-it-and-how-you-can-prevent-it-from-happening-in-the-future-235986

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI vampires could save Buffy fan favourites like Angel and Spike from a reboot recast

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Valentina Signorelli, Associate Professor in Film and TV, University of Greenwich

    Buffy fans are rejoicing that a reboot of the series by Oscar-winning director Chloé Zhao is imminent, with Sarah Michelle Gellar set to reprise the title role.

    For millennials like myself who grew up devouring the show (to the point of creating a new academic field, Buffy studies), this news is extremely exciting. However, some critical details remain unclear.

    When Gellar addressed the rumour of a reboot in an Instagram post on February 6, her co-star David Boreanaz, who played Buffy’s first love interest, Angel, commented: “Excited for you and your journey. Enjoy the moments and continue to give back to fans.”

    His words, which seem to suggest he won’t be returning as Angel, allude to a significant challenge facing the reboot. What to do about now-visibly older cast members such as Boreanaz (now 55) who play ageless vampires? James Marsters, who played Buffy’s punk-rebel lover, Spike, faces a similar problem: he is now 62.

    However, in the two decades since the final episode aired, there have been significant advancements in technology that may offer a way around having to sideline or recast fan favourites. The solution could involve the use of AI de-ageing technology.

    AI vampires

    De-ageing technology isn’t new to Hollywood. AI rejuvenation has been used in a number of blockbusters over the last few years – take Robert De Niro, Joe Pesci and Al Pacino in The Irishman (2019), for example. More recently, Tom Hanks was de-aged using AI for the graphic novel adaptation Here.

    AI has also been used to restore actors’ voices. This effect was used for the voice of Val Kilmer in Top Gun: Maverick (2022). Kilmer had lost his voice as a result of his battle with throat cancer.

    How de-ageing technology was used in The Irishman.

    A mixed voice-and-vision technique has also allowed The Mandalorian (2020) and The Book of Boba Fett (2021) to bring back a young Luke Skywalker. And Roadrunner: A Film About Anthony Bourdain (2021) controversially used AI to recreate the late chef’s timber for the voiceover.

    However, AI has yet to be explored in the unique context of the timeless vampire character – an archetype where immortality and daring beauty are defining traits, at least on TV.

    If done right, AI could de-age Boreanaz and Marsters, allowing the actors to return as Angel and Spike without breaking continuity or forcing abrupt casting changes.

    In return, this move could influence the vampire genre as a whole – not only bringing TV actors back to beloved roles but, more importantly, allowing them to carry their fan base with them into a new era.

    AI and gender in Hollywood

    Women have been disproportionately affected by AI’s impact on job security, as a 2024 Mercer study highlighted.

    Hollywood still has a gender disparity problem. In 2024, 70% of the top-grossing films had ten or more men in key positions behind the screen, compared with just 8% for women. AI is enhancing this gap, automating roles where women have greater representation (such as background acting and voice work), as well as excluding them from AI development and decision-making.

    Male actors, meanwhile, have seen their job security increased by the technology, as they’re able to retain leading roles in film sequels such as Harrison Ford in Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny (2023).

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    In the Buffy reboot, led by a now 47-year-old Gellar, we could witness an intriguing power reversal in both cases. If AI is not used, removing Boreanaz and Marsters from their roles, the show could still stand without them. Unlike her male co-stars, Buffy is human, so ageing isn’t a major issue for Gellar and her character. Twenty years later, fans would naturally expect to see her looking visibly older and facing new adventures.

    However, if AI de-aging is used to preserve Angel and Spike as we remember them in their often-sexualised signature look, then Buffy’s vampire lovers would look noticeably younger than her for the first time. This would provide an interesting twist to what film historian Steve Neale has defined as “masculinity as spectacle”, reversing traditional gendered cinematic power dynamics.

    By allowing AI to preserve Angel and Spike as immortal, the reboot could bridge generational and new fans while exploring the latest use of a controversial technology.

    Regardless of the outcome, we know Buffy doesn’t “have time for vendettas. The mission is what matters”. Let’s hope this new show can rise to the challenge and still slay in the 21st century.

    Valentina Signorelli is co-founder of Italian production company Daitona

    – ref. AI vampires could save Buffy fan favourites like Angel and Spike from a reboot recast – https://theconversation.com/ai-vampires-could-save-buffy-fan-favourites-like-angel-and-spike-from-a-reboot-recast-249403

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A short history of the separation of powers: from Cicero’s Rome to Trump’s America

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Vittorio Bufacchi, Senior Lecturer, Department of Philosophy, University College Cork

    Studies in democracy: Cicero, left, and Donald Trump. Capitoline Museum/Mary Harrsch and EPA-EFE/Will Oliver, CC BY-SA

    In the four weeks since he was inaugurated for his second term as US president, Donald Trump has issued dozens of executive orders – many of which are now the subject of legal challenges on the grounds they exceed his authority under the US constitution. As a result, some will inevitably end up in front of the US Supreme Court.

    What the court rules – and how the Trump administration responds to its judgments – will tell us a great deal whether the separation of powers still works as US founding fathers intended when they drafted the constitution.

    The concept of separation of powers is incorporated into just about every democratic constitution. It rests on the principle of the separation of powers between the three fundamental branches of government: executive, legislature and judiciary.

    It’s what enables the political ecosystem of checks and balances to create the conditions for democracy to exist and freedom to flourish. But if one of the three branches of government dominates the other two, the equilibrium is shattered and democracy collapses.

    We owe this idea of constitutional democracy as a tripartite division of power to an 18th-century French political philosopher, Charles de Montesquieu. He was the author of one of the most influential books to come out of the Enlightenment period, The Spirit of the Laws.

    Published in 1748, this work gradually reshaped every political system in Europe, and had a powerful influence on America’s Founding Fathers. The 1787 US constitution was drafted in the spirit of Montesquieu’s recommendations.

    Modern democracies are more complex than those of the 18th century – and new institutions have developed to keep up with the times. These include specialised tribunals, autonomous regulatory agencies, central banks, audit bodies, ombudsmen, electoral commissions and anti-corruption bodies.

    What all these institutions have in common is that they operate with a considerable degree of independence from the three aforementioned arms of government. In other words, more checks and balances.

    Notwithstanding his immense influence, the idea of a separation of powers at the heart of democracy predates Montesquieu by many centuries. One of the earliest formulations of this idea can be found in Aristotle’s work, the Politics. This includes the argument that “the best constitution is made up of all existing forms”. By this Aristotle meant a mixed government of monarchy, aristocracy and democracy.

    But it was the Romans who developed a working model of checks and balances. The constitution of the Roman republic was characterised by the separation of powers between the tribune of the plebs, the senate of the patricians, and the elected consuls.

    The consuls held the highest political office, akin to a president or prime minister. But since the Romans did not trust anyone to have too much power, they elected two consuls at a time, for a period of 12 months. Each consul had veto power over the actions of the other consul. Checks and balances.

    The greatest advocate of the Roman republic and its constitutional mechanisms, was the Roman philosopher, lawyer and statesman Marcus Tullius Cicero. It was Cicero who inspired Montesquieu’s work – as well as influencing John Adams, James Madison and Alexander Hamilton in the US.

    The Roman republic had lasted for approximately 500 years but came to an end following the violent death of Cicero in 43BC. He had devoted his life resisting authoritarian populists from undermining the Roman republic and establishing themselves as sole despots. His death (on top of the assassination of Julius Ceasar the previous year) are seen as key moments in Rome’s transition from republic to empire.

    Democracy under threat

    Today our democracies are facing the same predicament. In many different parts of the world this simple institutional mechanism has come under increasing attack by individuals hell-bent on curbing the independent power of the judiciary and the legislative.

    In Europe, following in the footsteps of Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, the Italian far-right premier Giorgia Meloni has been pushing for constitutional reforms that reinforce the executive branch of government at the expense of the other two branches.

    Checks and balances: the three branches of government.
    TREKPix/Shutterstock

    The assault on the system of checks and balances has also been identified in Washington. The use and abuse of presidential executive orders is an indication of this growing political cancer.

    During his time as 46th US president, from January 2021 to January 2025, Joe Biden signed 162 executive orders – an average of 41 executive orders per year. By comparison, during his first term Donald Trump’s annual average was 55 executive orders. Barack Obama before him was 35.

    In his first 20 days since returning to the White House Donald Trump has already signed 60 executive orders. This has included pardoning some 1,500 people who were involved in the January 6 insurrection at the US capitol.

    But of much greater concern is the Trump administration’s veiled threats to overturn the landmark decision of the US Supreme Court from 1803, Marbury v. Madison, the case that established the principle that the courts are the final arbiters of the law.

    In recent weeks Trump has openly criticised federal judges who have tried to block some of his most executive orders. He’s been supported by his vice-president, J.D. Vance, who has been quoted as saying that “judges aren’t allowed to control the executive’s legitimate power”.

    Meanwhile the president’s senior advisor, Elon Musk, accused a judge’s order to temporarily block the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency from accessing confidential treasury department data of being “a corrupt judge protecting corruption”.

    So democracy’s delicate balancing act is under serious pressure. If the separation of powers does not hold, and the checks and balances prove to be ineffective, democracy will be threatened.

    The next few months and years will determine whether the rule of law will be displaced by the rule of the strongest. At the moment the odds don’t look good for Cicero, Montesquieu and Madison.

    It takes a brave person to bet on democracy to win this contest, but we live in hope that America will remain the land of the free and the home of the brave.

    Vittorio Bufacchi is affiliated with the Labour Party in Ireland.

    – ref. A short history of the separation of powers: from Cicero’s Rome to Trump’s America – https://theconversation.com/a-short-history-of-the-separation-of-powers-from-ciceros-rome-to-trumps-america-249819

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: A new theory explains how water first arrived on Earth

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Quentin Kral, Astrophysicien à l’observatoire de Paris-PSL, CNRS, Sorbonne Université, Université Paris Cité

    How did Earth become a blue planet? NASA, CC BY

    When Earth first formed, it was too hot to retain ice. This means all the water on our planet must have originated from extraterrestrial sources. Studies of ancient terrestrial rocks suggest liquid water existed on Earth as early as 100 million years after the Sun’s formation–practically “immediately” on an astrophysical timescale. This water, now over 4.5 billion years old, has been perpetually renewed through Earth’s water cycle. My research team has recently proposed a new theory to explain how water first arrived on Earth.

    A mystery billions of years in the making

    Astrophysicists have been grappling with the question of how water arrived on our young planet for decades. One of the earliest hypotheses suggested that Earth’s water was a direct byproduct of the planet’s formation, released via magma during volcanic eruptions, in which most of the emitted gas is water vapor.

    However, this hypothesis evolved in the 1990s following analysis of Earth’s water composition and the discovery of the potential role of icy comets, pointing to an extraterrestrial origin. Comets, which are mixtures of ice and rock formed in the distant reaches of the solar system, are sometimes ejected toward the Sun. When warmed by the Sun, they develop striking tails of dust and gas that are visible from Earth. Asteroids, located in the asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter, were also proposed as potential progenitors of Earth’s water.

    The study of cometary and asteroid rocks via meteorites–small fragments of these bodies that have fallen to Earth–has provided key insights. By analyzing the D/H ratio–the proportion of heavy hydrogen (deuterium) to standard hydrogen–scientists found that Earth’s water more closely matches that of “carbonaceous” asteroids, which bear traces of past water. This shifted the focus of research toward these asteroids.

    The asteroid belt lies between Mars and Jupiter, while the Kuiper Belt extends beyond Neptune.
    Pline/Wikipedia, CC BY

    Recent studies have centered on identifying the celestial mechanisms that could have delivered these water-rich asteroids to the dry surface of early Earth. Numerous theories have emerged to explain the “perturbation” of planetesimals–large, icy bodies in the asteroid and Kuiper belts. These scenarios propose gravitational interactions that dislodged these objects, sending them hurtling toward Earth. Such events would have required a complex “gravitational billiards” process, suggesting a tumultuous history of the solar system.

    While it is evident that planetary formation involved significant upheavals and impacts, it is possible that Earth’s water delivery occurred in a more natural and less dramatic manner.

    A simpler hypothesis

    I started with the assumption that asteroids emerge icy from their formation cocoon, also known as the protoplanetary disk. This cocoon is a massive, hydrogen-rich disk filled with dust, where planets and initial belts form. It envelops the entire nascent planetary system. Once this protective cocoon dissipates–after a few million years–the asteroids warm up, causing their ice to melt or, more precisely, to sublimate. In space, where pressure is nearly zero, the water remains in vapor form after this process.

    A disk of water vapour is then superimposed on the asteroid belt orbiting the Sun. As the ice sublimates, the disk fills with vapor, which spreads inward toward the Sun due to complex dynamic processes. Along the way, this vapor disk encounters the inner planets, immersing them in a kind of “bath”. In a way, the disk “waters” the terrestrial planets: Mars, Earth, Venus and Mercury. Most of this water capture occurred 20 to 30 million years after the Sun’s formation, during a period when the Sun’s luminosity increased dramatically over a brief period of time, increasing the degassing rate of asteroids.

    Step-by-step illustration of a new model for water distribution on the inner planets of the solar system, including Earth. Five million years after the Sun’s birth, asteroids in the main belt release water vapor due to solar energy. This vapor gradually spreads into the inner solar system, eventually enveloping the planets, which capture part of it to form oceans between 10 and 100 million years later.
    Sylvain Cnudde/Observatoire de Paris — PSL/LESIA, Fourni par l’auteur

    Once water is captured by a planet’s gravitational pull, many processes can occur. On Earth, however, a protective mechanism ensures the total mass of water has remained relatively constant from the end of the capture period until today. If water rises too high into the atmosphere, it condenses into clouds, which eventually return to the surface as rain–a process known as the water cycle.

    The quantities of water on Earth, both past and present, are well documented. Our model, which begins with the degassing of ice from the original asteroid belt, successfully accounts for the amount of water needed to form oceans, rivers and lakes, and even the water buried deep within Earth’s mantle. Precise measurements of the D/H ratio of water in the oceans also align with our model. Moreover, the model explains the quantities of water present in the past on other planets–and even on the Moon.

    You might wonder how I arrived at this new theory. It stems from recent observations, particularly those made with ALMA, a radio telescope array of over 60 antennae located in Chile, on a plateau five kilometres above sea level. Observations of extrasolar systems with belts similar to the Kuiper Belt reveal that planetesimals in these belts sublimate carbon monoxide (CO). For belts closer to their star, such as the asteroid belt, CO is too volatile to be present, and water is more likely to be released.

    Building the model

    It was from these findings that the initial idea for the theory began to take shape. Moreover, recent data from the Hayabusa 2 and OSIRIS-REx missions, which explored asteroids similar to those that might have contributed to the formation of the initial water vapor disk, provided key confirmation. These missions, along with long-standing observations from ground-based telescopes, revealed substantial amounts of hydrated minerals on these asteroids–minerals that can only form through contact with water. This supports the premise that these asteroids were initially icy, even though most have since lost their ice (except for larger bodies like Ceres).

    With the foundation of the model in place, the next step was to develop a numerical simulation to track the degassing of ice, the dispersion of water vapor, and its eventual capture by planets. During these simulations, it quickly became clear that the model could account for Earth’s water supply. Additional research on past water quantities for Mars and other terrestrial planets confirmed the model’s applicability to them as well. It all fit, and the results were ready for publication!

    As researchers, it’s not enough to design a model that works and seems to explain everything. The theory must be tested on a larger scale. While it’s now impossible to detect the initial water vapor disk that “watered” the terrestrial planets, we can look to extrasolar systems with young asteroid belts to see if such water vapor disks exist. According to our calculations, these disks, though faint, should be detectable with ALMA. Our team has just secured time on ALMA to investigate specific systems for evidence of them.

    We may be at the dawn of a new era in understanding the origins of Earth’s water.

    Quentin Kral ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. A new theory explains how water first arrived on Earth – https://theconversation.com/a-new-theory-explains-how-water-first-arrived-on-earth-246516

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Goma is threatened by conflict and a volcano: we’ve created a handbook to help hotspots like these

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Evan Easton-Calabria, Senior Researcher at the Feinstein International Center, Tufts University, and Research Associate at the Refugee Studies Centre, University of Oxford

    The city of Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) was taken over by the M23 rebel group in January 2025. This was a tragic escalation of a decades-long conflict that’s led to mass displacement and deaths.

    Goma, a city of two million, hasn’t just been overtaken by rebels. It’s also just 12 miles (19km) from one of the most dangerous active volcanoes in the world: Mount Nyiragongo.

    Mount Nyiragongo can have lava flows of more than 60 miles (96km) per hour. This is far faster than any human can run. When it last erupted in 2021, thousands of families were displaced and at least 250 people died. An earlier eruption in 2002 left 13% of the city covered in lava.

    The DRC illustrates how millions of people in fragile, violent and conflict-affected parts of the world are at risk of both human-made and natural disasters. A changing climate makes people even more vulnerable to hazardous events. When these disasters interact, they can multiply and increase negative impacts.

    For example, if Mount Nyiragongo erupts in the near future – some research suggests it is likely to do so before the end of 2027 – and there is active conflict at the time, will anyone trust early warning messages? Or feel safe enough to flee on roads where civilians have already been attacked?

    These are some of the questions and scenarios that people working in disaster risk reduction grapple with. Situations like those in the DRC inspired a new UN handbook on early warning systems and early action in fragile, conflict-affected and violent contexts.

    It’s been published by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction-World Meteorological Organization Centre of Excellence for Disaster and Climate Resilience. The handbook provides guidance and case studies to increase disaster preparedness and action in some of the world’s most complex environments. Important work being done by the Red Cross Red Crescent Movement, the World Bank and others exemplifies the growing awareness of these threats.

    I was the lead drafter of the UN handbook and had the opportunity to interview dozens of humanitarians. I also spoke to meteorologists, disaster risk reduction experts and government officials to learn how they help build and use early warning systems in fragile, conflict-affected and violent contexts.

    Here is what I learned:

    • early warning systems – hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication, preparedness and early action to help people avoid harm – must be provided as a basic service for all, even in conflict zones

    • for early warning systems to be inclusive and effective, they must be trusted by affected communities

    • early warning systems in the places that most need them are drastically underfunded by governments and international actors – and require long-term collaboration and investment

    • early warnings and the early action they enable are a critical tool that can minimise suffering.

    Key takeaways

    Increasingly, work in the humanitarian sector seeks to address the intersecting vulnerabilities that arise from both conflict and climate impacts.

    What this work has made clear is that, first, early warning systems and early action must be available for everyone. Early warnings are the result of a chain of information. This goes from the systems that monitor and forecast weather conditions or hazards to the experts who analyse them to the actors who share this information.

    Early warnings come in many forms. It could be an alert on your phone when a flash flood or other hazard is predicted, or an evacuation message before a volcanic eruption.

    The UN secretary-general has called for Early Warnings for All by 2027. This is an initiative for everyone on Earth to be covered by early warning systems. However, countries affected by fragility, conflict and violence like the DRC lag far behind in receiving investments needed to prepare for current and future risks.

    Second, early warning systems need to be trusted by affected communities, which means co-producing messages and actions with communities and community leaders. Doing so would help take into account the nuanced dynamics in complex contexts.

    In many countries where people experience fragility, conflict and violence, systems of authority have been eroded. In fact, governments may be a party to a conflict, increasing mistrust over any warning messages received. The Red Cross has a new handbook that helps practitioners navigating these and other tensions. Involving communities and community leaders helps with identifying existing early warning mechanisms that can be used for hazards, understanding risks related to conflict or violence, and developing action plans.

    Conflict and peacebuilding experts within civil society and government, and even conflict actors, should be engaged in developing early warning systems. This helps reduce the risk of misunderstandings and misinformation, and ensures that conflict dynamics are taken into account.

    Third, in the places where it’s most needed, early warning systems face funding gaps and limitations. Fewer than 50% of countries classified as least developed, and only a third of small island developing states, have multi-hazard early warning systems (meaning the alarm can be sounded for different hazards, ranging from heatwaves to flooding). Nineteen of the top 25 most climate-vulnerable states are affected by fragility, conflict and violence. All of them are least developed countries, and few have adequate early warning systems.

    This illustrates the scale of vulnerability in these areas.

    Near Goma, the Virunga Supersite monitors and researches Mount Nyiragongo and other hazards in the densely populated region. The Supersite, supported by several organisations, has helped build collaboration between the Goma Volcano Observatory and global institutes studying and monitoring volcanic hazards.

    This is good practice, but the work is routinely hampered by a lack of access due to conflict. The staff also face a variety of risks, including intimidation, violence and kidnapping.

    More collaboration to monitor hazards and generate early warnings and early action is needed. The World Meteorological Organization’s ongoing work with the DRC government to improve early warning systems in the country exemplifies a valuable partnership that can save lives. This is all the more important following recent pauses in US humanitarian funding as resources for post-disaster responses will likely be more limited. There is also an urgent need to address the broader conflict that has plagued regions including the eastern DRC for decades.

    Looking ahead

    The knowledge and resources available to predict and mitigate the impacts of disasters before they take place need to be fully utilised. This is especially important in areas like eastern DRC where an existing humanitarian disaster could evolve into an even larger catastrophe if a volcanic eruption were to occur.

    Early warnings and the early action they enable can reduce suffering, save lives and minimise the cost of disaster response. They are needed in the places already experiencing disasters, too.

    Evan Easton-Calabria was a consultant for the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.

    – ref. Goma is threatened by conflict and a volcano: we’ve created a handbook to help hotspots like these – https://theconversation.com/goma-is-threatened-by-conflict-and-a-volcano-weve-created-a-handbook-to-help-hotspots-like-these-249453

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Deeply religious African countries (surprisingly) provide little state support to religion – unlike countries in Europe

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By David Jeffery-Schwikkard, PhD Candidate (Theology and Religious Studies), King’s College London

    In most of the world, countries with religious populations are more likely to have governments that support religion through laws and policies. These laws might include religious education, funding for religious institutions, and laws based on religious values. Not so in sub-Saharan Africa.

    In a recently published research paper, David Jeffery-Schwikkard, who studies secularism, argues that sub-Saharan African countries provide little state support for religion, even though their populations are among the most devout globally.

    These findings unsettle many common misconceptions about the role of religion in politics. The Conversation Africa asked him a few questions.

    How prevalent is religion in countries in sub-Saharan Africa?

    A population is normally considered very religious if most people say religion is “very important” in their lives or report attending religious services at least once a week.

    In surveys conducted between 2007 and 2018 by the Pew Research Centre, 46% of respondents outside sub-Saharan Africa said religion was very important in their lives. Within sub-Saharan Africa, the average is nearly twice that: 89%. Ethiopia and Senegal are among the most religious countries in the world. In both cases, 98% of people said religion was very important. Of the 20 countries in sub-Saharan Africa for which Pew has data, Botswana (71%) and South Africa (75%) are the least religious. Yet even these countries are far above the global average.

    What does this matter for how states are run?

    Generally, countries with religious populations have states that provide a lot of support to religion. This is what you would expect, since religious citizens probably want more state support for their religions.

    What this means, though, is that commentators often assume that religious citizens are a threat to secular states. This then shapes how analysts make sense of public displays of religion. One example of this is in South Africa, where many people assumed that former president Jacob Zuma, who often used religious rhetoric, would pursue religious laws and policies.



    Read more:
    TB Joshua scandal: the forces that shaped Nigeria’s mega pastor and made him untouchable

    These assumptions are especially common in analyses of religion and politics in Africa. Yet, while it is easy to identify laws or policies in sub-Saharan Africa that are religious, one can easily overlook the fact that having some of these laws is not unusual globally. In other words, having some pro-religion laws and policies doesn’t necessarily mean that countries are governed by religious beliefs.

    Thus one might focus on Ghana’s support for Hajj, while forgetting that the UK reserves seats in the House of Lords for the Church of England, and that Germany collects taxes on behalf of churches. Yet the UK and Germany are rarely seen as religious states. Some level of state support for religion does not mean that a country is governed by religious beliefs.

    Why are African countries different?

    Contrary to the global trend, countries in sub-Saharan Africa provide very little state support to religion – less than half the global average. This is as measured by the Religion and State Project at Bar Ilan University, based on the number of different types of support provided, such as reserving political positions for religious leaders or funding religious schools.

    One of the most popular explanations for the scant support for religion is that states in sub-Saharan Africa lack the necessary financial and administrative capacity. These states, the argument goes, would provide more support if only they had more money and were better able to implement their policies.

    However, data from the World Bank shows that this is not the case: overall, there is no relationship between state capacity and support for religion.



    Read more:
    Catholic synod: the voices of church leaders in Africa are not being heard – 3 reasons why

    A more plausible explanation is that religious actors in these countries tend to lack moral authority. Moral authority, as theorised by American political scientist Anna Grzymala-Busse, is the extent to which people see religious actors as defenders of the nation.

    Several factors are conducive to moral authority. These include whether people share the same ethnicity or religion, whether religious actors have control over education, and whether they have sided with the “right side” in moments of national crisis.

    Can you give an example?

    Consider Rwanda and Mozambique.

    Until 1994, the Roman Catholic Church in Rwanda enjoyed moral prestige. The church controlled a significant share of the education system and had supported the independence movement against Belgium. Most Rwandans were Catholic. And indeed, the church maintained a very close relationship with the state after independence in 1962.

    Yet this moral authority was forfeited after the church was seen to be complicit in the Rwandan Genocide in 1994, which claimed about 800,000 lives. Today, the government keeps a careful distance from religion, despite 90% of Rwandans reporting that religion is very important in their lives.



    Read more:
    Rwanda’s genocide could have been prevented: 3 things the international community should have done – expert

    Mozambique provides a contrast to Rwanda, yet with similar outcomes. The Roman Catholic Church denounced the liberation movement’s struggle against Portugal. The country has no religious or ethnic majority. At independence, formal education was scarce.

    There was therefore little reason for Mozambicans to see the church as a defender of the nation. On the contrary, religious institutions were persecuted after independence. Like Rwanda, Mozambique provides extremely little state support for religion, despite being one of the most religious countries internationally.



    Read more:
    Between state and mosque: new book explores the turbulent history of Islamic politics in Mozambique

    These factors – religious diversity, limited enrolment in schools controlled by religious organisations, and moments of political crisis in which those organisations can misstep – make it less likely that religious actors are held by citizens as integral to national identity. And while sub-Saharan Africa is extremely varied, common historical influences, such as the legacies of colonialism, may make these factors more likely.

    What can we learn from this?

    Clearly, we need to be more careful in how we interpret the role of religion in politics. While it might be tempting to see religious fervour as a threat to secular democracy, it is not necessarily so. A politician might use religious rhetoric, but this does not mean that it will translate into religious laws. Equally, some state support for religion is not unusual globally. Analyses of single policies need to keep this in mind.



    Read more:
    Christianity is changing in South Africa as pentecostal and indigenous churches grow – what’s behind the trend

    This research also upends the way many people normally think about secularism. Many people in Europe have become less religious. Consequently, European states are offered as models of secularism. However, this has it backwards.

    Despite their electorates being less religious, European states are more involved in religion than their counterparts in sub-Saharan African. If secularism is the separation of religion and the state, then countries in sub-Saharan Africa – which maintain a secular state despite widespread religion – are in fact the exemplar.

    David Jeffery-Schwikkard does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Deeply religious African countries (surprisingly) provide little state support to religion – unlike countries in Europe – https://theconversation.com/deeply-religious-african-countries-surprisingly-provide-little-state-support-to-religion-unlike-countries-in-europe-245490

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump has purged the Kennedy Center’s board, which in turn made him its chair – why does that matter?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By E. Andrew Taylor, Associate Professor and Director of Arts Management, American University

    Former Kennedy Center President Deborah Rutter walks by The Reach, a major expansion of the performing arts center completed during her tenure. AP Photo/Patrick Semansky

    President Donald Trump dismissed half the appointed trustees of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts’ board on Feb. 12, 2025. The remaining board members, most of whom he had recently appointed, then voted to make Trump the center’s chair. The board also fired Deborah Rutter, who had served as the center’s president since 2014 and already planned to step down seven months later.

    The board replaced Rutter with Richard Grenell, who served in the first Trump administration.

    The Conversation U.S. asked E. Andrew Taylor, an arts management scholar, to explain how the Kennedy Center operates and sum up the significance of Trump’s unprecedented interference with its operations.

    Why is the government involved in the Kennedy Center?

    The Kennedy Center, a unique cultural enterprise located along the Potomac River in Washington, has a complex ownership and operating structure. The campus includes three large performance halls, two midsize theaters and many smaller venues and public spaces that host musical, theatrical and dance performances, lectures, exhibits and other special events. In form and function, it looks a lot like other major metropolitan performing arts centers, such as New York City’s Lincoln Center. But its structure is different.

    The Kennedy Center is part of the federal government. Officially, it’s a bureau under the Smithsonian Institution.

    It was originally conceived during the Eisenhower administration and later championed by President John F. Kennedy. It was named after JFK following his assassination.

    The center opened in 1971, with a world premiere of composer Leonard Bernstein’s “Mass.” President Richard M. Nixon did not attend after the FBI warned him of possible anti-war messages encoded in the Latin text that might be designed to embarrass him.

    The center’s current mission statement captures its purpose and goals:

    “As the nation’s cultural center, and a living memorial to President John F. Kennedy, we are a leader for the arts across America and around the world, reaching and connecting with artists, inspiring and educating communities. We welcome all to create, experience, learn about, and engage with the arts.”

    Why does the Kennedy Center have a nonprofit board?

    From the start, the Kennedy Center was planned as a public-private effort. Government funding covers the maintenance, upkeep, security and restoration of the building and grounds.

    Private funds, largely derived from ticket sales, individual donors, foundations and corporations, cover the performances, productions and other programs.

    Those private funds cover more than three-quarters of the Kennedy Center’s budget. Its 2023 annual report explained that its US$286 million in revenue included $152 million from ticket sales, services and fees, $85 million from donations and $45 million from the federal government, with the rest derived from income from its endowment and other sources.

    In accordance with this public-private mix of revenue, the center’s governance has always been a hybrid, with the structure of a nonprofit board but with political appointees.

    The Kennedy Center’s board is authorized by its legislation to solicit and accept private donations, enter into contracts, maintain its halls and grounds, and appoint and oversee professional leadership. For the most part, it has the same responsibilities as any nonprofit board.

    There’s a big exception, however.

    While most nonprofit boards recruit, elect and develop their own membership, the Kennedy Center board consists of government appointees. About two dozen trustees serve by virtue of their government office, such as the librarian of Congress, the secretary of state, the mayor of Washington and the speaker and the minority leader of the U.S. House of Representatives;.

    Up to 36 more are appointed by the president, each serving staggered six-year terms so that they don’t all expire at the same time.

    Singer-songwriter Sara Bareilles performs Elton John’s ‘Goodbye Yellow Brick Road’ with the National Symphony Orchestra in February 2025 at the Kennedy Center’s sold-out Concert Hall.

    Is the board supposed to be nonpartisan?

    The six-year terms reflect a goal of establishing a largely nonpartisan governing board, since presidents usually appoint board members aligned with their own party. Until now, that balance has been the norm. But that outcome wasn’t mandated when Congress passed legislation establishing the Kennedy Center.

    Having a politically balanced board has historically helped the Kennedy Center raise money and attract world-class artists. For example, the 2025 season, as of mid-February, will or has included Alvin Ailey American Dance Theater, jazz pianist Kenny Barron, soprano Renée Fleming, author David Sedaris, comedian Sarah Silverman and touring productions of “Parade” and “Les Misérables.”

    Its in-house productions are often classic works, such as “La Bohème” and Beethoven’s symphonies. Many of the center’s theatrical productions have gone on to Broadway and national tours, including “42nd Street,” “Noises Off” and revivals of “The King and I,” “Annie” and “Spamalot.”

    I’m concerned that many longtime or potential future donors may not want to contribute to a cause that has suddenly become subject to partisan leadership.

    Many artists and creative partners have already begun to sever their ties to the Kennedy Center or cancel upcoming shows at its venues out of an aversion to the board’s dramatic political turn. Some performances and tours tied to the center have been called off for other reasons that haven’t yet been made public.

    Members of the public may balk at attending events at a politically charged venue, especially with so many other performing arts options in and around Washington, reducing ticket sales.

    What does the Kennedy Center chair do?

    Board chairs are in charge of the governing board, expending considerable energy, attention, effort, political muscle and often personal wealth to ensure that the organization can thrive.

    The Kennedy Center’s prior chairs have not been figureheads. Rather, they have been actively engaged in fundraising, strategic planning and public advocacy. The legislation that chartered the center requires that its chair and secretary “shall be well qualified by experience and training to perform the duties of their respective offices.”

    Trump has admitted that he’s never seen a show at the Kennedy Center. He has no prior relevant arts board leadership experience. And he is constrained from serving on a nonprofit board in the state of New York after admitting to the misuse of charitable funds by the now-dissolved Donald J. Trump Foundation.

    David Rubenstein, the board chair ousted by this upheaval, has given the Kennedy Center at least US$111 million, making him the center’s biggest donor ever. The philanthropist spearheaded fundraising for its first major expansion, securing significant support from private corporations and foundations.

    Former Kennedy Center Chair David Rubenstein speaks at an event at the performing arts venue in 2022.
    AP Photo/Kevin Wolf

    Has anything like this happened before?

    No U.S. president has served as a member of the Kennedy Center board before, let alone its chair.

    Presidents do often appoint their friends and allies to government boards and commissions, and often remove appointees of previous administrations. President Joe Biden, for example, removed Sean Spicer – a former Trump press secretary and White House communications director – from the Naval Academy advisory board.

    But that board is leading a strictly governmental body, not a public-private hybrid so dependent on private funding. And the speed and scale of this purge are unprecedented.

    What are the potential consequences?

    All big, multi-venue metropolitan performing arts centers are extraordinarily complex and difficult to manage.

    The John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts is particularly so. It hosts approximately 2,200 performances that draw more than 2 million visitors each year, with an in-house symphony and opera company. It produces the Kennedy Center Honors, which celebrate exceptional American artists with an annual gala, performance and television broadcast, and the Mark Twain Prize, which honors one accomplished American comedic actor, author or performer each year.

    The Kennedy Center hosts an annual event honoring a wide range of performers and other leaders in the arts.

    It’s also a national hub for arts education that serves 2.1 million students and teachers across all 50 states, doubling as an open campus: It offers daily free performances of everything from classical chamber music and ballet to jazz and rock bands.

    Even under the best possible conditions, this is a lot to handle.

    Successful arts nonprofits benefit from a governing board whose members have expertise in the arts, business and philanthropy, are loyal to the mission above themselves, and rigorously follow the law. Beyond those basics, ideal conditions also include having enthusiastic audiences, passionate donors, eager and exceptional artistic collaborators, and creative and administrative teams that are supported and empowered to do their difficult work.

    With Trump’s takeover of the Kennedy Center board, this national cultural center has now, essentially, turned into a branch of the White House. In my view, that’s a disturbing turn of events in a nation that celebrates free and creative expression. It’s also disruptive to a complex, mission-driven enterprise that demands care, loyalty and obedience from its governing board.

    E. Andrew Taylor directs American University’s Arts Management Program. Some of its alumni and students have worked as staff and fellows for The Kennedy Center.

    – ref. Trump has purged the Kennedy Center’s board, which in turn made him its chair – why does that matter? – https://theconversation.com/trump-has-purged-the-kennedy-centers-board-which-in-turn-made-him-its-chair-why-does-that-matter-249934

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why is water different colors in different places?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Courtney Di Vittorio, Assistant Professor of Engineering, Wake Forest University

    Crater Lake in Oregon looks brilliant blue because its water comes from melting snow and is extremely pure. CST Tami Beduhn, NOAA Ship Fairweather/Flickr, CC BY

    Curious Kids is a series for children of all ages. If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskidsus@theconversation.com.

    Why is water different colors in different places? – Gina T., age 12, Portland, Maine

    What do you picture when you think of water? An icy, refreshing drink? A crystal-blue ocean stretching to the horizon? A lake reflecting majestic mountains? Or a small pond that looks dark and murky?

    You would probably be more excited to swim in some of these waters than in others. And the ones that seem cleanest would probably be the most appealing. Whether or not you realize it, you are applying concepts in physics, biology and chemistry to decide whether you should leap in.

    The color of water offers information about what’s in it. As an engineer who studies water resources, I think about how I can use the color of water to help people understand how polluted lakes and beaches are, and whether they are safe for swimming and fishing.

    Light and the color of water

    Drinking water normally looks clear, but ponds, rivers and oceans are filled with floating particles. They may be tiny fragments of dirt, rock, plant material or other substances.

    These particles are often carried into the water during storms. Any rainfall that hits the ground and doesn’t go into the soil becomes runoff, flowing downhill until it reaches an open body of water and picking up loose materials along the way.

    Particles in water interact with radiation from the Sun shining on the water’s surface. The particles can either absorb this radiation or reflect it in a different direction – a process known as scattering. What we see with our eyes is the fraction of radiation that is scattered back out of the water’s surface. It strongly affects how water looks to us, including its color.

    Visible light forms just a small part of the electromagnetic spectrum, which includes all types of electromagnetic radiation. Within the visible range, different wavelengths of light produce different colors.
    Ali Damouh/Science Photo Library, via Getty Images

    Depending on the properties of the particles in our water sample, they will absorb and scatter radiation at different wavelengths. The light’s wavelength determines the color we see with our eyes.

    Waters that contain lots of sediment – such as the Missouri River, nicknamed the “Big Muddy” – backscatter light across the yellow to red range. This makes the water appear orange and muddy.

    Cleaner, more pure water backscatters light in the blue range, which makes it look blue. One famous example is Crater Lake in Oregon, which lies in a volcanic crater and is fed by rain and snow, without any streams to carry sediment into it.

    Deep waters like Crater Lake look dark blue, but shallow waters that are very clear, such as those around many Caribbean islands, can appear light blue or turquoise. This happens because light reflects off the white, sandy bottom.

    When water contains a lot of plant material, chlorophyll – a pigment plants make in their leaves – will absorb blue light and backscatter green light. This often happens in areas that contain a lot of runoff from highly developed areas, such as Lake Okeechobee in Florida. The runoff contains fertilizer from farms and lawns, which is made of nutrients that cause plant growth in the water.

    Finally, some water contains a lot of material called color-dissolved organic matter – often from decomposing organisms and plants, and also human or animal waste. This can happen in forested areas with lots of animal life, or in heavily populated areas that release wastewater into streams and rivers. This material mostly absorbs radiation and backscatters very little light across the spectrum, so it makes the water look very dark.

    Bad blooms

    Scientists expect water in nature to contains sediments, chlorophyll and organic matter. These substances help to sustain all living organisms in the water, from tiny microbes to fish that we eat. But too much of a good thing can become a problem.

    For example, when water contains a lot of nutrients and heats up on bright sunny days, plant growth in the water can get out of control. Sometimes it causes harmful algal blooms – plumes of toxic algae that can make people very sick if they swim in the water or eat fish that came from it.

    When water bodies become so polluted that they threaten fish and plants, or humans who drink the water, state and federal laws require governments to clean them up. The color of water can help guide these efforts.

    Engineering professor Courtney Di Vittorio and her students collect water samples from High Rock Lake in North Carolina to assess its water quality.

    My students and I collect water samples at High Rock Lake, a popular spot for swimming, boating and fishing in central North Carolina. Because of high chlorophyll levels, algal blooms are occurring there more often. Residents and visitors are worried that these blooms will become harmful.

    Using satellite photos of the lake and our sampling data, we can produce water quality maps. State officials use the maps to track chlorophyll levels and see how they change in space and time. This information can help them warn the public when there are algal blooms and develop new rules to make the water cleaner.

    Hello, curious kids! Do you have a question you’d like an expert to answer? Ask an adult to send your question to CuriousKidsUS@theconversation.com. Please tell us your name, age and the city where you live.

    And since curiosity has no age limit – adults, let us know what you’re wondering, too. We won’t be able to answer every question, but we will do our best.

    Courtney Di Vittorio receives funding from the North Carolina Attorney General’s Office Environmental Enhancement Grant Program (award WFU021PRE1) to collect data at High Rock Lake, NC. She is affiliated with the Yadkin Riverkeepers, an environmental advocacy not-for-profit group, and the North Carolina Lake Management Society.

    – ref. Why is water different colors in different places? – https://theconversation.com/why-is-water-different-colors-in-different-places-243895

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why do skiers sunburn so easily on the slopes? A snow scientist explains

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Steven R. Fassnacht, Professor of Snow Hydrology, Colorado State University

    Skiers can sunburn easily for reasons that have nothing to do with the mountain’s elevation. Matt Bird/Stone via Getty Images

    It’s extremely easy to get sunburned while you’re skiing and snowboarding in the mountains, but have you ever wondered why?

    While it’s true that you’re slightly closer to the Sun when you’re high in the mountains, that isn’t the reason.

    If you go up 1 mile (1.6 km), about the elevation from Denver to the peaks of resorts such as Vail or Copper Mountain, you’re less than 1 millionth of a percent closer to the Sun – that’s nothing. Since the Earth’s orbit is an ellipse and not a circle, the planet is about 1.7% closer to the Sun in early January compared with its annual average. This means skiers get about 3.3% more Sun in January than average for the year – so, not much more.

    Being 1 mile higher up does mean the atmosphere is thinner, so there are fewer particles to block the ultraviolet radiation that causes sunburns.

    But the big reason your skin is more likely to burn has to do with all that fresh powder that skiers and snowboarders crave, especially on perfect, blue-sky days. I’m a snow scientist at Colorado State University and an avid skier. There are many ways that snow conditions affect how much your skin will burn.

    Fresh snow is very reflective

    When you’re out in the snow, a lot of the solar radiation your skin receives is reflected from the snow itself. The amount of radiation reflected is known as albedo.

    Fresh powder snow can have an albedo of almost 95%, meaning it reflects almost all of the Sun’s radiation that hits it. It’s much more reflective than older snow, which becomes less shiny. Fresh snow has a lot of surfaces to reflect the Sun’s rays. As snow ages, the snow crystal becomes more round and there are fewer surfaces to reflect light.

    Fresh snow has lots of planes to reflect the Sun’s rays, more so than older snow.
    Steven Fassnacht/Colorado State University, CC BY
    Older snow isn’t as reflective as it melts and the grains become rounder.
    Steven Fassnacht/Colorado State University, CC BY

    Having lots of fresh snow increases albedo because the Sun penetrates into the powder, reflecting off the small, newly fallen crystals. Think about starting a car after 6 inches of fresh snow fell. Some light still makes its way through the snow-covered windshield.

    Having only an inch of powder on crust is not as reflective as knee-deep fresh powder. Shallow snow is less reflective.

    What is albedo?

    A lot of people want to ski on what are known as bluebird days, when there is deep, fresh powder under a clear blue sky following a big snow dump. However, this provides the perfect conditions to burn from two directions: lots of Sun coming down from above and high albedo reflecting it back to your face from below. Clouds block sunlight, with only about one-third of the Sun’s radiation making it through a fully overcast sky.

    Which side of the mountain also matters

    Where you are on the mountain also makes a difference.

    The slope and the direction that the slope faces, called aspect, also influences the intensity of the Sun on a surface. North-facing slopes in the Northern Hemisphere get less direct sunlight in the winter, when the Sun is farther south in the sky, so they stay cooler.

    Ironton Park, near Ouray, Colo., on a clear blue day in February 2025.
    Steven Fassnacht/Colorado State University, CC BY

    A lot of the runs at Northern Hemisphere ski resorts face north, so the snow melts slower. The snow also varies from the top of the mountain to the base. There is more snow up high, and the snow melts slower there, so the albedo is higher at the top of the mountain than at the base.

    How to reduce the risk of sunburn

    To avoid sunburns, skiers and snowboarders need to take all of those characteristics into account.

    Because solar radiation is reflecting back up, people out in the snow should put sunscreen on the bottom of their noses, around their ears and on their chins, as well as the usual places.

    Most sunscreen also needs to be reapplied every two hours, particularly if you’re likely to sweat it off, wipe it off, or wear it off while playing on the slopes. However, surveys show that few people remember to do this. Wearing clothing with UV protection to cover as much skin as possible can also help.

    These methods can help protect your skin from burning and the risks of cancer and premature aging that come with it. Snow lovers need to remember that they face higher sunburn risks on the slopes than they might be accustomed to.

    Steven R. Fassnacht does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Why do skiers sunburn so easily on the slopes? A snow scientist explains – https://theconversation.com/why-do-skiers-sunburn-so-easily-on-the-slopes-a-snow-scientist-explains-249858

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Who are Ismaili Muslims and how do their beliefs relate to the Aga Khan’s work?

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Shariq Siddiqui, Assistant Professor of Philanthropic Studies, Indiana University

    Prince Karim Aga Khan at an event on Oct. 2, 2019, in London. Max Mumby/Indigo/Getty Images

    Prince Karim Aga Khan, who died on Feb. 4, 2025, served as the religious leader of Ismaili Muslims around the world since being appointed as the 49th hereditary imam in 1957. He came to be known around the world for his enormous work on global development issues and other philanthropic work.

    The Ismaili community considers the imam a direct descendant of the Prophet Muhammad. Ismaili Muslims are considered to be a branch of Shiite Islam. They constitute the second-largest community within the Shiite sect.

    An estimated 15 million Ismaili Muslims live in 35 countries, across all parts of the world. In the U.S., with around 40,000 Ismailis, Texas has the largest concentration of the community.

    As a scholar of Muslim philanthropy, I have long been impressed by the philanthropic and civic engagement of the Ismailis.

    Ismaili religious beliefs

    Following the death of the Prophet in A.D. 632, differences emerged over who should have both political and spiritual control over the Muslim community. A majority chose Abu Bakr, one of the Prophet’s closest companions, while a minority put their faith in his son-in-law and cousin, Ali. Those Muslims who put their faith in Abu Bakr came to be called Sunni, and those who believed in Ali came to be known as Shiite.

    Like other Shiite sects, Ismailis believe that Ali should have been selected as the successor of the Prophet Muhammad. They also believe that he should have been followed by Ali’s two sons – the grandsons of Muhammad through his daughter Fatima.

    The key difference among other Shiites and Ismailis lies in their lineage of imams. While they agree with the first six imams, Ismailis believe that Imam Ismail ibn Jafar was the rightful person to be the seventh imam, while the majority of Shiites, known as Twelvers, believe that Imam Musa al-Kazim, Ismail’s younger brother, was the true successor. They both agree that Ali was the first imam and on the next five imams, who are direct descendant of Ali and Fatima.

    The Ismaili sect split into two branches in 1094. Aga Khan was the leader of the Nizari branch, which believes in a living imam or leader. The second branch – Musta’lian Tayyibi Ismailis – believes that its 21st imam went into “concealment”; in his physical absence, a vicegerent or “da’i mutlaq” acts as an authority on his behalf.

    Like all Muslims, Ismailis believe that God sent his revelation to the Prophet Muhammad through Archangel Gabriel. However, they differ on other interpretations of the faith. According to the Ismailis, for example, the Quran conveys allegorical messages from God, and it is not the literal word of God. They also believe Muhammad to be the living embodiment of the Quran. Ismailis are strongly encouraged to pray three times a day, but it is not required.

    Ismailis believe in metaphorical, rather than literal, fasting. Ismailis believe that the esoteric meaning of fasting involves a fasting of the soul, whereby they attempt to purify the soul simply by avoiding sinful acts and doing good deeds.

    In terms of “Zakat,” or charity – the third pillar of Islam, which Muslims are required to follow – Ismailis differ in two ways. They give it to the leader of their faith, Aga Khan, and believe that they have to give 12.5% of their income versus 2.5%.

    Pluralism and its embrace

    Ismaili history has a strong connection to pluralism – part of their philosophy of embracing difference. The Fatimid Empire that ruled over parts of North Africa and the Middle East from 909 to 1171 is said to have been a “golden age of Ismaili thought.”

    It was a pluralistic community, in which Shiite and Sunni Muslims, as well as Christian and Jewish communities, worked together for the success of the flourishing empire, under the rule of the Ismaili imams.

    In the modern period, Ismailis have sought to further pluralism within their own communities by arguing that pluralism goes beyond tolerance and requires people to actively engage across differences and actively embrace difference as a strength. For example, Eboo Patel, an Ismaili American, has established the nonprofit Interfaith America as a way to further pluralism among faith communities.

    The Aga Khan’s philanthropic work

    Prince Karim Aga Khan established the Aga Khan Development Network and Aga Khan Foundation in 1967.

    Some 53 nurses and 98 midwives from Ghazanfar Institute of Health Sciences, supported by The Aga Khan University in Karachi, Pakistan, and the United States Agency for International Development, attend a graduation ceremony in Kabul, Afghanistan, on March 29, 2009.
    Massoud Hossaini AFP via Getty Images

    The network supports health care, housing, education and rural economic development in underprivileged areas. The foundation is one of nine agencies of the network that focuses on philanthropy. The Aga Khan Development Network has hospitals serving the poor in several parts of the world. The Aga Khan Medical University in Karachi, Pakistan, is considered to be a leading medical school globally.

    While previous imams or leaders also led charity and development projects, the Aga Khan was the first to create a formal, global philanthropic foundation.

    The Aga Khan Foundation operates in countries with Ismaili populations or historical connections to the Ismaili community, such as Afghanistan, Egypt, India, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Madagascar, Mozambique, Pakistan, Portugal, Syria, Tajikistan, Tanzania and Uganda. The foundation also has offices in Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, focusing primarily on raising funds and advocating for the foundation.

    According to the foundation, in 2023 it served over 20 million people through 23,310 civil society partner organizations.

    The Ismaili community will now be led by the Aga Khan’s eldest son, Rahim Al-Hussaini, as the 50th imam. He has been actively involved with the Aga Khan Development Network and is expected to continue the important philanthropic and development work of his global community.

    Shariq Siddiqui does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Who are Ismaili Muslims and how do their beliefs relate to the Aga Khan’s work? – https://theconversation.com/who-are-ismaili-muslims-and-how-do-their-beliefs-relate-to-the-aga-khans-work-249318

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cutting funding for science can have consequences for the economy, US technological competitiveness

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris Impey, University Distinguished Professor of Astronomy, University of Arizona

    National Institutes of Health indirect costs, which are under the knife, go toward managing laboratories and facilities. Fei Yang/Moment via Getty Images

    America has already lost its global competitive edge in science, and funding cuts proposed in early 2025 may further a precipitous decline.

    Proposed cuts to the federal agencies that fund scientific research could undercut America’s global competitiveness, with negative impacts on the economy and the ability to attract and train the next generation of researchers.

    I’m an astronomer, and I have been a senior administrator at the University of Arizona’s College of Science. Because of these roles, I’m invested in the future of scientific research in the United States. I’m worried funding cuts could mean a decline in the amount and quality of research published – and that some potential discoveries won’t get made.

    The endless frontier

    A substantial part of U.S. prosperity after World War II was due to the country’s investment in science and technology.

    Vannevar Bush founded the company that later became Raytheon and was the president of the Carnegie Institution. In 1945, he delivered a report to President Franklin D. Roosevelt called The Endless Frontier.

    In this report, Bush argued that scientific research was essential to the country’s economic well-being and security. His advocacy led to the founding of the National Science Foundation and science policy as we know it today. He argued that a centralized approach to science funding would efficiently distribute resources to scientists doing research at universities.

    The National Science Foundation awards funding to many research projects and early career scientists. Pictured are astronomers from the LIGO collaboration, which won a Nobel Prize.
    AP Photo/Andrew Harnik

    Since 1945, advances in science and technology have driven 85% of American economic growth. Science and innovation are the engines of prosperity, where research generates new technologies, innovations and solutions that improve the quality of life and drive economic development.

    This causal relationship, where scientific research leads to innovations and inventions that promote economic growth, is true around the world.

    The importance of basic research

    Investment in research and development has tripled since 1990, but that growth has been funded by the business sector for applied research, while federal investment in basic research has stagnated. The distinction matters, because basic research, which is purely exploratory research, has enormous downstream benefits.

    Quantum computing is a prime example. Quantum computing originated 40 years ago, based on the fundamental physics of quantum mechanics. It has matured only in the past few years to the point where quantum computers can solve some problems faster than classical computers.

    Basic research into quantum physics has allowed quantum computing to develop and advance.
    AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

    Worldwide, basic research pays for itself and has more impact on economic growth than applied research. This is because basic research expands the shared knowledge base that innovators can draw on.

    For example, a biotech advocacy firm calculated that every dollar of funding to the National Institutes of Health generates US$2.46 in economic activity, which is why a recent cut of $9 billion to its funding is so disturbing.

    The American public also values science. In an era of declining trust in public institutions, more than 3 in 4 Americans say research investment is creating employment opportunities, and a similar percentage are confident that scientists act in the public’s best interests.

    Science superpower slipping

    By some metrics, American science is preeminent. Researchers working in America have won over 40% of the science Nobel Prizes – three times more than people from any other country. American research universities are magnets for scientific talent, and the United States spends more on research and development than any other country.

    But there is intense competition to be a science superpower, and several metrics suggest the United States is slipping. Research and development spending as a percentage of GDP has fallen from a high of 1.9% in 1964 to 0.7% in 2021. Worldwide, the United States ranked 12th for this metric in 2021, behind South Korea and European countries.

    In number of scientific researchers as a portion of the labor force, the United States ranks 10th.

    Metrics for research quality tell a similar story. In 2020, China overtook the United States in having the largest share of the top 1% most-cited papers.

    China also leads the world in the number of patents, and it has been outspending the U.S. on research in the past few decades. Switzerland and Sweden eclipse the United States in terms of science and technology innovation. This definition of innovation goes beyond research in labs and the number of scientific papers published to include improvements to outcomes in the form of new goods or new services.

    Among American educators and workers in technical fields, 3 in 4 think the United States has already lost the competition for global leadership.

    Threats to science funding

    Against this backdrop, threats made in the beginning of President Donald Trump’s second term to science funding are ominous.

    Trump’s first wave of executive orders caused chaos at science agencies as they struggled to interpret the directives. Much of the anxiety involved excising language and programs relating to diversity, equity and inclusion, or DEI.

    The National Science Foundation is particularly in the crosshairs. In late January 2025, it froze the routine review and approval of grants and new expenditures, impeding future research, and has been vetting grants to make sure they comply with orders from the U.S. president.

    The National Institutes of Health announced on Feb. 7, 2024 a decision to limit overhead rates to 15% which sent many researchers reeling though it has since been temporarily blocked by a judge. The National Institutes of Health is the world’s largest funder of biomedical research, and these indirect costs provide support for the operation and maintenance of lab facilities. They are essential for doing research.

    The new administration has proposed deeper cuts. The National Science Foundation has been told to prepare for the loss of half of its staff and two-thirds of its funding. Other federal science agencies are facing similar threats of layoffs and funding cuts.

    The impact

    Congress already failed to deliver on its 2022 commitment to increase research funding, and federal funding for science agencies is at a 25-year low.

    As the president’s proposals reach Congress for approval or negotiation, they will test the traditionally bipartisan support science has held. If Congress cuts budgets further, I believe the impact on job creation, the training of young scientists and the health of the economy will be substantial.

    Deep cuts to agencies that account for a small fraction – just over 1% – of federal spending will not put a dent in the soaring budget deficit, but they could irreparably harm one of the nation’s most valuable enterprises.

    Chris Impey has received funding from NASA, the National Science Foundation, and the Howard Hughes Medical Institute.

    – ref. Cutting funding for science can have consequences for the economy, US technological competitiveness – https://theconversation.com/cutting-funding-for-science-can-have-consequences-for-the-economy-us-technological-competitiveness-249568

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The biggest threat in the Ontario election isn’t Donald Trump, it’s voter disengagement

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Mark Winfield, Professor, Environmental and Urban Change, York University, Canada

    Ontario Premier Doug Ford has justified his early election call on the need to respond to United States President Donald Trump’s threat to impose 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports.

    While the threat of tariffs on all Canadian imports has been paused — although Trump has since slapped levies on all steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. — Ontario voters need to reflect more than ever on the province’s circumstances and the performance of its government as they prepare to head to the polls next week.

    The Ford government’s approach to the environment and climate change, as well as its policies on a range of other issues like housing, health care and education, is best understood in the context of its overall “market populist” approach to governance.

    Several defining features of this model have emerged over the past six and a half years under Ford’s rule.

    Unaffordable proposals

    First, issues that require long-term perspectives on environmental, social and economic costs — like climate change — have tended to be disregarded. To the extent that the government has provided any sort of long-term vision, it has been focused on grandiose infrastructure projects.

    That includes a proposal to bury the Highway 401 highway in Toronto — an undertaking with a potential cost of anywhere between $60 and over $200 billion. But even that expense would pale in comparison to a recent proposal for a 10,000-megawatt nuclear power plant near Wesleyville, between Toronto and Kingston.

    The costs for the project based on recent experiences in the U.S., could easily top the $200 billion mark as well.

    The Ford government’s drive to “get it done” has also, at times, invoked a near-Trumpian disdain for democratic norms and limits on executive authority. This has been illustrated by, among other things, the first invocation of the notwithstanding clause of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms in Ontario history.



    Read more:
    Doug Ford uses the notwithstanding clause for political benefit

    Power has been increasingly concentrated in the premier’s office. Provisions for public participation, transparency and accountability under the guise of eliminating red tape in decision-making processes have been systemically eliminated.

    Processes for the meaningful environmental and economic review of major projects have suffered the same fate.

    Another defining issue is the Ford government’s approach to managing the province’s finances, with even the consistently pro-business Fraser Institute raising concerns.

    The disregard of financial responsibility has perhaps been most powerfully demonstrated by issuing of $200 rebates to Ontario residents. These are expected to cost to the provincial treasury more than $3 billion.

    Fewer revenue streams

    The Ford government has also displayed a willingness to eliminate billions a year in stable, long-term revenue streams, like vehicle licencing fees and fuel taxes. Major long-term costs and liabilities have been embedded at the same time, especially in relation to questionable infrastructure projects.

    All of this has taken place amid ongoing crises, attributed to provincial underfunding in areas like schools and post-secondary institutions, affordable (especially rental) housing and health care.

    In the longer term, liabilities are accumulating from the government’s failure to deal with the impacts of a changing climate.

    A final feature of the government’s market populist governance model has been an approach to decision-making based on connections, access and political whim rather than evidence or analysis.

    This pattern was perhaps most evident during the $8.3 billion Greenbelt land removal scandal involving well-connected developers. But the same pattern extends to the energy, for-profit health and resource extraction sectors as well.

    The province’s major opposition parties ran unsuccessfully in the 2022 election on the basis of platforms emphasizing adherence to what had been thought to be core principles in Ontario politics — moderation, managerial competence, and basic democratic values.

    Opposition parties

    This time, all three have turned to more populist themes.

    Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie promises even more tax cuts than Ford. The NDP proposes to remove tolls from the 407 highway at an unknown cost to the provincial treasury and other programs.

    Even the Green Party, which has previously drawn praise for the content and imagination of its platforms, has picked up on populist themes, with an emphasis on affordability and a Ford-topping promise — and likely an even more ambitious — to build two million new homes.

    Vulnerabilities for the Ford government abound. Recent polling suggests that despite the apparently strong Conservative lead, Ford himself is deeply unpopular, particularly among women voters. Sixty per cent of Ontario residents think the province is on the “wrong track.”

    The early election call itself is widely seen as costly, unjustified and opportunistic. The distraction of the election may well have weakened the province’s immediate capacity to deal with the Trump administration.



    Read more:
    An unnecessary Ontario election won’t help Canada deal with Donald Trump

    Questions and investigations around the Greenbelt land removal scandal and the government’s relationship with the land-development industry continue to close in on the premier’s office amid an ongoing RCMP investigation.

    Crises around housing, education, health care and electricity continue to deepen.

    Ontario’s Bill 23 eliminated or weakened many housing development regulations, including site plan controls, which kept the natural environment safe from the negative effects of poorly controlled development.
    THE CANADIAN PRESS/Nathan Denette

    Still disengaged?

    In calling an early election, the Ford government has provided Ontario voters with an unexpected opportunity to reflect on its record, and the potential paths forward for the province.

    Hopefully Ontario voters will engage more deeply with these questions than they did in the 2022 election, which had the lowest voter turnout in the province’s history.

    Three years ago, the government emerged with an overwhelming majority in the legislature on the basis of the ballots of less than 18 per cent of the province’s eligible voters. The stakes are far too high in 2025 for a repeat of that level of disengagement.

    Mark Winfield receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. This chapter summarizes the contents of the author’s contribution to three new volumes on Ontario politics (The Politics of Ontario, 2nd ed,( UTP 2024); Ontario Since Confederation: A Reader (UTP 2025); and Against the People (Fernwood 2025)

    – ref. The biggest threat in the Ontario election isn’t Donald Trump, it’s voter disengagement – https://theconversation.com/the-biggest-threat-in-the-ontario-election-isnt-donald-trump-its-voter-disengagement-249528

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Amish voters for Trump? The Amish and the religion factor in Republican electoral politics

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Daniele Curci, PhD Candidate in International and American History, University of Florence

    On November 5, 2024, as millions of Americans headed to the polls, billionaire Elon Musk posted a video on his social media platform X depicting a caravan of Amish individuals travelling via horse and buggy to vote for Donald Trump. The following day, in response to a post expressing gratitude to the Amish for their contribution to Trump’s victory, Musk wrote: “The Amish may very well save America! Thank goodness for them. And let’s keep the government out of their lives.” Musk’s tweets underscore the growing prominence of religion in US politics and the Republican party’s efforts to integrate the Amish into its electorate.

    The Amish and their vote in US history

    The Amish are a Protestant religious community rooted in early European Anabaptist movements. They accept technological advancements selectively, adhering to a distinct way of life marked by simple living, plain dress and a focus on community, distinguishing between what strengthens their social bonds and what might compromise their spiritual path. The Amish are a tiny minority in the US: in 2022, there were approximately 373,620 individuals in a population of around 330 million–slightly more than one in 1,000 Americans. They are predominantly concentrated in the election swing states of Pennsylvania and Ohio, which partly explains Republicans’ interest in courting their support.

    Traditionally, the Amish mainly abstain from voting unless they feel compelled to protect their religious freedoms, preserve their way of life or address critical moral issues. Historically, such instances of electoral participation have occurred only three times.

    The first instance dates back to the 1896 presidential election, when the Republican nominee, William McKinley, campaigned on a platform centred on industrial corporate interests. These interests diverged significantly from those of the Amish, who aligned instead with Democrat William Bryan’s policies advocating for small farmers and the defense of rural America.

    Amish political engagement resurfaced during the 1960 presidential election, which featured Republican Richard Nixon vs Democrat John F. Kennedy. The Amish viewed Kennedy as an ally of the Catholic church, an institution they viewed as intolerant. Consequently, they supported Nixon, a Quaker, whom they saw as a defender of a Protestant America.

    The most recent instances of notable Amish participation occurred amid the presidential election campaigns of Republican George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. This phenomenon, dubbed “Bush Fever,” saw unprecedented Amish voter turnout. In 2000, 1,342 out of 2,134 registered Amish voters in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania–which has one of the largest Amish communities in the US–cast ballots, achieving a turnout rate of 63%. By 2004, Amish voter registration had increased by 169%, with 21% of eligible adults being registered. This mobilization was spearheaded by Chet Beiler, the son of Amish parents who left the community when he was three. Leveraging his heritage and fluency in Pennsylvania German, a traditional language spoken in many Amish communities, Beiler developed a voter registration strategy targeting the Amish to support Bush’s re-election campaign.

    The religious factor in US politics

    To understand the Republican party’s interest in the Amish, one must examine the increasing centrality of religion in US politics. This phenomenon persists despite a growing number of Americans identifying as non-religious or less religious.

    In the US political context, religion extends beyond faith to encompass cultural identity and social cohesion. Scholars often describe this phenomenon as “Christianism,” a form of nationalism that is bound together by a belonging to Christianity and that emerges, as a form of reaction, within the culture wars. Consequently, a political platform emphasizing Christian principles and rural values has the potential to galvanize segments of the electorate. This dynamic is exemplified by Musk’s tweets about the Amish. Within some parts of the Republican electorate, the Amish are perceived as “guardians of lost values,” embodying a vision of an untainted rural America defined by traditional family structures and an agrarian work ethic. This narrative has been further amplified by Amish PAC, a political action committee established in Virginia in 2016 to rally support for Trump through religiously framed identity politics that advocate for traditional values and oppose abortion rights.

    The influence of religion within the Republican party is further underscored by the ascendancy of the Christian right, a political movement that emerged in the late 1970s. Though not a monolithic entity, it is composed of individuals–primarily evangelical Christians–seeking to shape US politics based on a conservative interpretation of biblical principles and societal values.

    Legislation and the Amish

    Some Republicans have advocated for legislation favourable to the Amish, such as former US representative Bob Gibbs, who won election in the Amish-dominated congressional district of Holmes County, Ohio. In December 2021, Gibbs introduced legislation to allow people with specific religious beliefs such as the Amish, who view photography as a form of idolatry, to be exempt from a requirement of possessing identification documents featuring their photographs “to purchase a firearm from a federally licensed firearms dealer.” In the same month, Gibbs also proposed another bill to benefit the Amish, which would have allowed them to opt out of social security and Medicare wage deductions if they were employed by non-Amish-owned companies.

    Earlier in 2021, the conservative-majority Supreme Court resolved a longstanding dispute between the Amish of Lenawee County, Michigan and local authorities, ruling in favour of the Amish. The issue at the heart of the case concerned wastewater management. Following their religious principles, the Amish typically avoid using modern inventions such as septic systems, and the Amish in Lenawee County used a management method considered noncompliant by health officials. This case followed similar ones involving other Amish communities in Ohio, Minnesota and Pennsylvania. Legal disputes such as these could be leading the Amish to form a more positive view of the Republican party and Trump, both for their advocacy of “less government” and for positioning themselves as defenders of religious freedom.

    The Amish and the 2024 presidential election

    According to the online news source Anabaptist World, media reports suggested that the 2024 presidential election saw a surge in voter registrations among the Amish in Pennsylvania, allegedly contributing to Trump’s victory in the state. The alleged surge was reportedly driven by a reaction to federal legal actions against an Amish farmer accused of selling raw dairy products across state lines, which resulted in cases of Escherichia (E.) coli.

    However, official data from Lancaster County–where the principal Amish settlement in Pennsylvania is located–challenge claims of a massive Amish turnout. The increase in Trump’s vote share in the state, from 48.84% in 2020 to 50.37% in 2024, primarily occurred in urban and suburban areas. For example, by the time the Associated Press declared that Trump had won Pennsylvania, his vote share in Philadelphia had improved by three percentage points. Key suburban counties such as Bucks, Monroe and Northampton, which former president Joe Biden won in 2020, had swung in his favour. And the Republican had also performed better in the Philadelphia-area suburbs of Delaware and Chester counties. These regions, with few Amish residents, experienced substantial shifts, while districts with larger Amish populations saw only modest gains for Trump.

    While the Amish did not become a significant component of Trump’s electoral coalition, voters in some Amish communities may have grown more sympathetic to his candidacy. More importantly, members of the religious group serve as a potent symbol of mobilization and propaganda for the Republican party amid the intensifying polarization of US politics.

    Daniele Curci ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Amish voters for Trump? The Amish and the religion factor in Republican electoral politics – https://theconversation.com/amish-voters-for-trump-the-amish-and-the-religion-factor-in-republican-electoral-politics-247869

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why is there so much gold in west Africa?

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Raymond Kazapoe, Senior lecturer, University for Development Studies

    Militaries that have taken power in Africa’s Sahel region – notably Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger – have put pressure on western mining firms for a fairer distribution of revenue from the lucrative mining sector.

    Gold is one of the resources at the heart of these tensions. West Africa has been a renowned gold mining hub for centuries, dating back to the ancient Ghana empire, which earned its reputation as the “Land of Gold” because of its abundant reserves and thriving trade networks. The region remains a global leader in gold production. As of 2024, west Africa contributed approximately 10.8% of the world’s total gold output.

    But why is there so much gold in this region? The Conversation Africa asked geologist Raymond Kazapoe to explain.

    How is gold formed?

    The simple answer here is that we are not certain. However, scientists have some ideas.

    Gold, like all elements, formed through high energy reactions that occurred in various cosmic and space environments some 13 billion years ago, when the universe started to form.

    However, gold deposits – or the concentration of gold in large volumes within rock formations – are believed to occur through various processes, explained by two theories.

    The first theory – described by geologist Richard J. Goldfarb – argues that large amounts of gold were deposited in certain areas when continents were expanding and changing shape, around 3 billion years ago. This happened when smaller landmasses, or islands, collided and stuck to larger continents, a process called accretionary tectonics. During these collisions, mineral-rich fluids moved through the Earth’s crust, depositing gold in certain areas.

    A newer, complementary theory by planetary scientist Andrew Tomkins explains the formation of some much younger gold deposits during the Phanerozoic period (approximately 650 million years ago). It suggests that as the Earth’s oceans became richer in oxygen during the Phanerozoic period, gold got trapped within another mineral known as pyrite (often called fool’s gold) as microscopic particles. Later, geological processes – like continental growth (accretion) and heat or pressure changes (metamorphism) released this gold – forming deposits that could be mined.

    Where in west Africa is gold found and what are its sources?

    Most gold production and reserves in west Africa are found within the west African craton. This is one of the world’s oldest geological formations, consisting of ancient, continental crust that has remained largely unchanged for billions of years.

    The craton underlies much of west Africa, spanning parts of Mali, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Guinea, Senegal and Mauritania. In fact, most west African countries that have significant gold deposits have close to 50% of their landmass on the craton. Notably, between 35% and 45% of Ghana, Mali and Côte d’Ivoire’s territory sits on it – which is why these areas receive so much attention from gold prospectors.

    Gold deposits were formed within west Africa’s craton rocks during a major tectonic event, known as the Eburnean Orogeny, 2.2 billion to 2.08 billion years ago. This event was accompanied by the temperature, pressure and tectonic conditions which promote gold mineralisation events. Most of the gold resources in the west African craton are found within ancient geological formations formed by volcanic and tectonic processes about 2.3 billion to 2.05 billion years ago. These are known as the Rhyacian Birimian granitoid-greenstone belts.

    These gold-bearing belts in Ghana and Mali are by far the most endowed when compared with other countries in the region. Ghana and Mali currently, cumulatively account for over 57% of the combined past production and resources of the entire west Africa sub-region.

    Ghana is thought to be home to 1,000 metric tonnes of gold. The country produces 90 metric tonnes each year – or 7% of global production. Gold production in Mali reached around 67.7 tonnes in 2023. Mali has an estimated 800 tons of gold deposits.

    By comparison, the world’s two largest gold producers are China (which mined approximately 370 metric tonnes of gold in 2023) and Australia (which had an output of around 310 metric tonnes in 2023).

    What are some of the modern exploration tools used to find gold?

    Gold was traditionally found by panning in riverbeds, where miners swirled sediment in water to separate the heavy gold particles, or by digging shallow pits to extract gold-rich ores. Over time, methods have evolved to include geochemical exploration techniques, advanced geophysical surveys, and chemical extraction techniques, like cyanide leaching.

    Geological mapping techniques are always evolving, and at the moment, there is a lot of interest in combining remote sensing data with cutting-edge data analytics methods, like machine learning. By combining these two methods, geologists can get around some of the problems caused by traditional methods, like the reliance on subjective judgement to create reliable maps and the need to spend money prospecting in areas with low chances of success.

    In recent years, deep learning computer techniques have made significant progress. They examine various geological data-sets to reduce uncertainty and increase the chances of finding gold mineralisation through advanced artificial intelligence techniques. These methods have proved highly beneficial in identifying specific features and discovering new mineral deposits when applied to remote sensing data.

    Another method, which I’ve researched and which could serve as a complementary gold exploration tool, is the use of stable isotopes. Stable isotopes are elements – like carbon, hydrogen and oxygen – that do not decay over time. Some are responsible for helping to carry gold, in fluids, through rocks to form the deposits. As the gold-bearing fluids interact with the rocks, they transfer the stable isotopes to the rocks, thereby imbuing them with their unique signature. The thinking here is to identify the signature and then use it as a proxy for finding gold, since gold itself is hard to identify directly.

    Advancements in analytical techniques have reduced the cost, volume, and time involved. This makes it a viable alternative to geochemical approaches – the most widely used and relatively efficient method.

    Raymond Kazapoe receives funding from the African Union and Pan African University to carry out some of the research referenced in this article

    – ref. Why is there so much gold in west Africa? – https://theconversation.com/why-is-there-so-much-gold-in-west-africa-248599

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Thailand’s TV lesbian romances captured a global audience

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Eva Cheuk-Yin Li, Lecturer in Sociology (Media & Cultural Studies Team), Lancaster University

    While dramas about male same-sex romance (known as “boys’ love”, or BL) have been popular in Asia since 2010, “girls’ love” (GL) dramas are only now seeing a meteoric rise in popularity – and they are coming out of Thailand.

    On January 23 2025, Thailand became the first country in south-east Asia to legalise same-sex marriage. Although the country is often imagined as a “gay paradise”, Thai society remains largely conservative and homophobia is still commonplace. Against this social backdrop, the rise of LGBTQ+ storytelling is intriguing – perhaps revealing the emergence of more tolerant and progressive attitudes.

    In Thailand, these BL and GL dramas are known as series “Y”, an industry estimated to be worth 3 billion baht (approximately £72 million) in 2024. Thailand’s GL dramas now reshaping sapphic storytelling and bringing it to the mainstream.

    Besides the central romance plotline, GL stories often explore pertinent issues such as family expectations and societal pressure, coming-out struggles, and age and class differences. Adding depth to the narrative, these issues chime with young queer audiences seeking more realistic, relatable experiences.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    A hub for BL series since the mid-2010s, Thailand only produced its first full-length GL series in 2022. Despite investor doubts, the producer of a then-small production house financed a pioneering series called Gap, telling the story of an office romance between a royal-descendant CEO and a junior member of staff.

    Airing on domestic TV and later uncut on YouTube with multilingual subtitles, Gap amassed over 850 million views by January 2025, proving a global appetite for queer women-oriented stories. By February 2025, more than 20 GL series had aired, with at least 30 more in production.

    Trailer of Gap (2022), Thailand’s first full-length GL series.

    Series like Blank, 23.5, The Secret of Us, Affair, and The Loyal Pin illustrate the genre’s growing popularity, with uncut versions available on platforms like YouTube and Netflix, complete with subtitles in various languages such as English, Korean, Vietnamese, Spanish, Portuguese and Turkish.

    Thailand’s GL dramas have adopted successful practices from their BL counterparts: adapting novels, scouting and training actors, incorporating product placement, hosting fan events and appearing on variety shows. One notable practice is the making of khu-jin (imagined couple), where celebrities perform same-sex intimate moments on stage or social media to serve fans’ fantasies.

    “Shipping” culture – the practice of imagining or supporting a romantic relationship between fictional or real individuals – is pivotal to GL’s success. The two Gap leads, Freen Sarocha and Becky Armstrong have created the “FreenBecky” ship, and each have more than four million Instagram followers. Actresses of other “ships” such as LingOrm, EngLot, and FayeYoko, command similarly devoted followings. Their fan meetings across Asia regularly draw tens of thousands, blending fiction and reality to create an immersive fan ecosystem.

    Celebrating Girls Love

    As we discussed in our recent research, Thai GL series also emphasises joy and resilience, unlike the tragic endings often seen in western LGBTQ+ narratives. US-produced content has been criticised for the “bury your gays trope”, where LGBTQ+ characters are frequently killed off in tragic or unnecessary ways.

    Another objection is “dead lesbian syndrome”, where lesbian and bisexual characters are even more likely to be killed on screen. Notorious examples include Killing Eve and The 100.

    In contrast, Thai GL stories celebrate love and acceptance, despite the challenges experienced by protagonists. Series like Gap, The Secret of Us, and Mate feature grand wedding finales with the blessing of parents and friends, portraying queer love overcoming obstacles and thriving.

    GL series also speak directly to the queer women’s community. Many actresses, such as Engfa Waraha in Show Me Love and Petrichor, and Faye Malisorn in Blank, are openly queer or vocal queer allies.

    Although many GL series have male directors, love scenes are respectful, focusing on sensuality and desire rather than being graphic and exploitative. This contrasts with films such as Blue is the Warmest Colour, in which love scenes were criticised as being exploitative, and where actresses have reported problematic practices during filming.

    Opportunities and challenges

    From their inception, Thai GL dramas have aired locally but have quickly been made available on streaming platforms with multilingual subtitles for a global audience. Social media platforms amplify their reach, with production houses curating trends and fostering interactive fan experiences.

    Recognising the potential for cultural export, the Thai government has partnered with BL and GL production companies to promote Thai culture and products. It is unusual for governments to embrace queer culture as a vehicle for soft power, which highlights the growing cultural and economic significance of these series. Though this development has sparked concerns over the intentions behind such support, it signals a future where queer narratives hold global, cultural and political relevance.

    Despite its success, GL entertainment faces challenges. Many series are still adaptations of novels, limiting thematic diversity. While themes like schoolyard dramas and sweet romances such as Love Senior, Unlock Your Love, and Us prevail, some series are pushing boundaries with themes like disability (Pluto), supernatural power (Reverse 4 You), and crime (Petrichor).

    GL romances provide a vital space for queer women’s stories, connecting audiences across borders through global visibility and fan culture. Most remarkably, this shift isn’t coming from Hollywood.

    As the genre evolves, it holds the potential to continue redefining representation and amplifying underrepresented voices. It’s not just reshaping how queer women’s stories are told and viewed globally, it’s proving to be commercially viable and culturally transformative.

    In the face of rising global reactionary politics and growing hatred against the LGBTQ+ community following Trump’s re-election, Thai GL series offers not only a safe escape and fantasy, but also a sense of solidarity through their worldwide fandom.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Thailand’s TV lesbian romances captured a global audience – https://theconversation.com/how-thailands-tv-lesbian-romances-captured-a-global-audience-248261

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why did life evolve to be so colourful? Research is starting to give us some answers

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jonathan Goldenberg, Postdoctoral Researcher in Evolutionary Biology, Lund University

    Jonathan Goldenberg, CC BY-NC-ND

    Picture a primordial Earth: a world of muted browns, greys and greens. Fast forward to today, and Earth teems with a kaleidoscope of colours. From the stunning feathers of male peacocks to the vivid blooms of flowers, the story of how Earth became colourful is one of evolution. But how and why did this explosion of colour happen? Recent research is giving us clues into this part of Earth’s narrative.

    The journey towards a colourful world began with the evolution of vision, which initially developed to distinguish light from dark over 600 million years ago. This ability probably arose in early organisms, like single-celled bacteria, enabling them to detect changes in their environment, such as the direction of sunlight. Over time, more sophisticated visual systems evolved and allowed organisms to perceive a broader spectrum of light.

    For example, trichromatic vision – the ability to detect three distinct wavelengths such as red, green and blue – originated approximately 500-550 million years ago. This coincided with the “Cambrian explosion” (about 541 million years ago), which marked a rapid diversification of life, including the development of advanced sensory systems like vision.

    The first animals with trichromatic vision were arthropods (a group of invertebrates that includes insects, spiders and crustaceans). Trichromatic vision emerged 420-500 million years ago in vertebrates. This adaptation helped ancient animals to navigate their environments and detect predators or prey in ways that monochromatic vision could not.

    Fossil evidence from trilobites, extinct marine arthropods that roamed the seas over 500 million years ago, suggests they had compound eyes. This means eyes with multiple small lenses, each capturing a fraction of the visual field, which combine to form a mosaic image. These eyes could detect multiple wavelengths, providing an evolutionary advantage in dim marine environments by enhancing the animal’s visibility and motion detection.

    Boyd’s forest dragon blends in with its habitat.
    Jonathan Goldenberg, CC BY-NC-ND

    The stage was set: organisms could see a colourful world before they became colourful themselves.

    The first burst of conspicuous colour came from plants. Early plants began producing colourful fruits and flowers, such as red, yellow, orange, blue and purple, to attract animals to help plants with seed dispersal and pollination.

    Analytical models based on present-day plant variation suggest that colourful fruits, which appeared roughly 300-377 million years ago, co-evolved with seed-dispersing animals, such as early relatives of mammals. Flowers and their pollinators emerged later, around 140-250 million years ago. These innovations marked a turning point in Earth’s palette.

    The rise of flowering plants (angiosperms) in the Cretaceous period, over 100 million years ago, brought an explosion of colour, as flowers evolved brighter and more vibrant hues than seeds to attract pollinators like bees, butterflies and birds.

    Conspicuous colouration in animals emerged less than 140 million years ago. Before, animals were mostly muted browns and greys. This timeline suggests that colour evolution was not inevitable, shaped instead by ecological and evolutionary factors, which could have led to different outcomes under different circumstances.

    Vibrant colours often evolved as a kind of signalling to attract mates, deter predators, or establish dominance. Sexual selection probably played a strong role in driving these changes.

    Dinosaurs provide some of the most striking evidence of early animal colouration.
    Fossilised melanosomes (pigment-containing cell structures called organelles) in feathered dinosaurs like Anchiornis reveal a vivid red plumage.

    These feathers probably served display purposes, signalling fitness to mates or intimidating rivals. Similarly, the fossilised scales of a green and black ten million-year-old snake fossil suggest early use of colour for signalling or camouflage.

    This snake, a juveline Bornean keeled green pit viper comes in a variety of colours.
    Jonathan Goldenberg, CC BY-NC-ND

    The evolution of colour is not always straightforward. Take poison frogs, for instance. These small amphibians display striking hues of blue, yellow, or red, not to attract mates but to warn predators of their toxicity, a phenomenon known as aposematism.

    But some of their close relatives, equally toxic, blend into their environments. So why evolve bright warning signals when camouflage could also deter predators? The answer lies in the local predator community and the cost of producing colour. In regions where predators learn to associate vibrant colours with toxicity, conspicuous coloration is an effective survival strategy. In other contexts, blending in may work.

    Clownfish lure other fish to anemone with their bright colours.
    Jonathan Goldenberg, CC BY-NC-ND

    Unlike many mammals, which have dichromatic vision and see fewer colours, most primates including humans have trichromatic vision, enabling us to perceive a broader range of hues, including reds. This probably helped our ancestors locate fruit in forests and likely played a role in social signalling. We see flowers differently from pollinators like bees, which can detect ultraviolet patterns invisible to us, highlighting how colour is tailored to a species’ ecological needs.

    A world still changing

    Earth’s palette isn’t static. Climate change, habitat loss, and human influence are
    altering the selective pressures on colouration, potentially reshaping the visual landscape of the future. For example, some fish species exposed to polluted waters are losing their vibrant colours, as toxins disrupt pigment production or visual communication.

    As we look to the past, the story of Earth’s colours is one of gradual transformation punctuated by bursts of innovation. From the ancient seas where trilobites first saw the world in colour to the dazzling displays of modern birds and flowers, life on Earth has been painting its canvas for over half a billion years.

    What will the next chapter of this vibrant story hold?

    Jonathan Goldenberg receives funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe research and innovation program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 101126636.

    – ref. Why did life evolve to be so colourful? Research is starting to give us some answers – https://theconversation.com/why-did-life-evolve-to-be-so-colourful-research-is-starting-to-give-us-some-answers-247136

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What does the US public think about sending troops to foreign wars? Here’s what the evidence shows

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dafydd Townley, Teaching Fellow in International Security, University of Portsmouth

    The US public’s commitment to sending its sons and daughters to war has declined in recent years. Polls suggest that US involvement in modern conflicts is more likely to be viewed as mistaken than in the early and middle parts of the 20th century. Today, around 47% of Americans consider the Iraq war a mistake, and 43% feel the same about the war in Afghanistan.

    Recent announcements by the US president, Donald Trump, about the possibility of using US forces as part of his Gaza strategy is unlikely to improve those figures.

    On February 4, Trump proposed that the US effectively take control of the Gaza Strip and rebuild the area into what he has called the riviera of the Middle East.

    When he was asked at a press conference whether he would be willing to use US troops to secure the region, Trump answered that “as far as Gaza is concerned, we’ll do what is necessary. If it’s necessary, we’ll do that. We’re going to take over that piece that we’re going to develop it”.

    Trump walked back on that initial claim of the use of military personnel just days later, stating that the US military force would be unnecessary. “The Gaza Strip would be turned over to the United States by Israel at the conclusion of fighting,” adding that “No soldiers by the U.S. would be needed! Stability for the region would reign!” But others have suggested a US military presence would have to be involved.

    Putting US troops on the ground would fly in the face of current American public opinion. In a survey taken on February 12, only a quarter of those polled supported the prospect of US troops being sent to the region, and just over half (52%) of Republicans disapproved of the plan.

    Less than 25% of Americans supported the US taking ownership of the Gaza Strip, while 62% showed opposition to it. Less than half (46%) of Republican voters polled expressed support while only 10% of Democrats showed any kind of enthusiasm for the initiative, according to the poll.

    Of those polled, the majority said they opposed all of Trump’s plans to expand US-controlled territory, whether that was the Panama Canal, Greenland, Canada, or Gaza.

    The lack of support from the US public in deploying troops overseas has been constant since the withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 – and the American public appears to be questioning US military involvement in world affairs more generally.

    In a poll taken by foreign policy thinktank Defense Priorities in February 2024, 56% of respondents were “very worried” or “somewhat worried” that the presence of US troops in Syria could escalate into a broader conflict in the region. Of those that opposed a US military presence in Syria, 66% felt that it was a waste of resources.

    And just last September, a Pew Research Center poll revealed that 75% of those polled were worried about the Israel-Hamas conflict expanding in the region and US troops becoming more directly involved.

    Recruitment ad for the US Marines.

    This lack of public support for US military involvement abroad, as well as the poor recent record of recruitment into the military, may be informing Trump’s negotiations in both Gaza, and over the Ukraine war.



    Read more:
    US kicks off debate on conscription as other Nato members introduce drafts

    While the US public shows high levels of respect for those who serve in the military, around 80% of American teenagers are not interested in military service, while 55% of adults and 67% of parents are not likely to recommend it as a career to teenagers.

    The US has tried numerous recent initiatives, including offering substantial bonuses to entice recruits to join up, but without much success. The army, navy and air force all failed to reach their target recruitment numbers in 2023.

    This week Trump opened early discussions with Vladimir Putin, and latterly Kyiv, over proposals for a Ukraine peace deal. In a meeting with European defense ministers in Brussels on February 12, the new US defense secretary Pete Hegseth ruled out the participation of US troops in any peacekeeping mission in Ukraine, although in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on February 13 vice-president JD Vance did not rule out using the military.

    Hegseth also said that the US was planning to pull back from its role in European security, sparking high levels of concern from many European leaders.

    Some Republican senators have not been particularly supportive of Trump’s Ukraine proposals, especially those that have backed Ukraine over the last three years.

    In an interview, Senate armed services chair, Roger Wicker, said that “there are good guys and bad guys in this war, and the Russians are the bad guys. They invaded, contrary to almost every international law, and they should be defeated. And Ukraine is entitled to the promises that the world made to it.” Republican Senator Mike Rounds joined Wicker in demanding that: “Russia be recognised for the aggressor that they are.”

    There’s a similar level of concern on Trump’s Gaza plan – even from Trump’s close allies in the party. Rand Paul, the libertarian senator for Kentucky, suggested this idea flew in the face of Trump’s foreign policy proposals espoused during the campaign.

    “I thought we voted for America First. We have no business contemplating yet another occupation to doom our treasure and spill our soldiers’ blood,” he wrote on X.

    It is unlikely that the majority of Republican voters would be supportive of Trump’s Gaza initiative (or sending troops to Ukraine). This is partly because of the demands that it would make on the federal government – but also because of the necessity of using armed forces to implement it.

    Trump’s recent controversial executive orders have barely damaged his early job approval ratings. But the deployment of armed forces to Gaza or Ukraine runs counter to a long-term significant decline in public support for US overseas military intervention and that might be a step too far for many voters.

    Dafydd Townley does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. What does the US public think about sending troops to foreign wars? Here’s what the evidence shows – https://theconversation.com/what-does-the-us-public-think-about-sending-troops-to-foreign-wars-heres-what-the-evidence-shows-249419

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –