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Category: Report

  • MIL-OSI Global: Donald Trump is planning more trade barriers if he becomes president – but they didn’t work last time

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Johnson, Professor of Operations Management, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

    Trump campaigning in Pennsylvania in October 2024. Connor Brady Photography/Shutterstock

    Donald Trump loves tariffs. Making things more expensive if they come from foreign countries is at the heart of his bid for a second term in the White House.

    “Tariffs are the greatest thing ever invented,” he said in September 2024 at a town hall event in Michigan. And he has promised that if he becomes US president again, he will impose an across-the-board tariff of up to 20% on imports – and even 200% on cars from Mexico – in a bid to encourage American manufacturing.

    This is familiar ground for Trump, who showed he was fond of tariffs during his 2017-2021 presidency. Back then, he claimed his policy would address the trade imbalance with China, bring manufacturing jobs back to the US and raise revenues.

    Tariffs were then imposed on a wide range of goods, from imported steel and aluminium, to solar panels and washing machines.

    But did they work? Our research suggests not.

    In fact, we found that imposing tariffs actually made the US even more reliant on foreign suppliers – and failed to stimulate the domestic job market. They also raised costs for US consumers and provoked retaliatory tariffs from trading partners including China, the EU, Canada, Mexico, India and Turkey.

    China for example, responded by trebling tariffs on American cars. The EU filed a dispute with the World Trade Organisation and substantially raised tariffs on US exports including Harley Davidson motorcycles, jeans and bourbon whiskey.

    And Trump’s tariffs did not lead to a boost for US manufacturing either. After tariffs were imposed, our research shows US manufacturing supply chains evolved to have fewer suppliers – but it was often US firms that got forced out of those supply chains, not their competitors from overseas.

    We found that US manufacturers appeared to reduce their global reach, while actually increasing their dependence on a select few foreign companies – further evidence that Trump’s tariffs failed to produce the intended outcome.

    Our research also suggests that “reshoring” – bringing production and manufacturing back to a company’s home country – is not feasible without an established ecosystem of suppliers, intermediaries and customers. So introducing trade barriers without adequate support for the development of regional supply chains is unlikely to result in stronger local economies or more jobs.

    Essentially, for reshoring to work, the domestic economy needs to have the capacity to match demand. But the US (like the UK) has lost manufacturing capability in many areas, and rebuilding it is not going to happen overnight.

    Establishing a new industry requires buildings, skilled staff and supply chains – and a very specific approach is required for each industry. Getting the right skills and labour is often the trickiest part and may require immigration.

    However, even this may not work in the most complex industries. In the case of computer chips, for example, there are generous incentives in the US under the Biden administration to encourage chip manufacturing. Yet Taiwan still massively dominates the market, raising questions over whether the US could ever really compete.

    Bourbon whiskey exports, on the rocks?
    Smit/Shutterstock

    Other industries that can use automation and robotics in manufacturing (such as chemicals and transportation equipment) might be easier to reboot, but they may not generate the expected number and range of jobs. And often reshoring strategies involve higher investment in automation, machinery and robotics, rather than jobs. Trump’s focus may have been bringing back manufacturing jobs back to the US, but the truth is that many of these jobs may be gone forever.

    Trading places

    Overall then, imposing tariffs without adequate domestic support mechanisms in place has led to US manufacturers increasing their dependence on foreign suppliers and reducing their dependence on local ones.

    Yet tariffs are not exclusively favoured by Trump – or even right-wing politics. And there seems to be a fairly common view among politicians in the west that some tariffs can be an effective economic tool.

    Trade barriers against China for instance, have continued under Joe Biden’s administration (although he has somewhat relaxed tariffs for imports from the EU, Canada and Mexico). And recently, Canada imposed 100% tariffs on Chinese cars and 25% on Chinese steel and aluminium, while the EU has also imposed tariffs on Chinese goods.

    One of the few voices speaking out against tariffs belongs to former US vice-president Mike Pence. He recently proposed scrapping tariffs, saying they just made products more expensive for consumers – and failed to improve prosperity.

    His old boss clearly disagrees. And if Trump does win a second term in office, it seems certain that imposing international tariffs will be high up on his “to do” list. But if their impact is anything like the last time, they will be of little benefit to the US economy or the voters who depend upon it.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Donald Trump is planning more trade barriers if he becomes president – but they didn’t work last time – https://theconversation.com/donald-trump-is-planning-more-trade-barriers-if-he-becomes-president-but-they-didnt-work-last-time-240964

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The gas crisis is not over yet

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michael Bradshaw, Professor of Global Energy, Warwick Business School, University of Warwick

    Oleksandr Filatov/Shutterstock

    Policy and luck have bought Europe a reprieve from the heights gas prices reached between the winters of 2022 and 2023, but prices are climbing again and the global gas market remains precariously balanced.

    Rising tensions in the Middle East could upend it. If conflict spills into the Persian Gulf, it could disrupt shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Qatar that equal 20% of global exports.

    We believe this winter will be the final act of the gas crisis. Here’s what we should expect.

    Dangerously underprepared

    The case for Britain to rapidly phase out natural gas in heating and power generation is overwhelming. It would unburden household bills of expensive gas imports and leave the country less vulnerable to energy supply crunches, while also cutting carbon emissions. Doing so will take time: as of today, the UK relies on gas for 37% of all energy consumption.

    British households in particular are perilously exposed to gas prices. Directly, because four-fifths of households use gas for space heating. Indirectly, because in the UK, electricity prices are set by the price of gas-fired generation. After a decade of failed home insulation and energy-efficiency policies, the UK still has some of the draughtiest homes in Europe. It simply takes more energy to heat British homes, which lose heat three times faster than European neighbours.

    Since the beginning of the recent crisis, the UK government has done little to change these facts. The end of the winter fuel payment to pensioners adds fresh concern. The Energy Crisis Commission recently found that the UK remains “dangerously underprepared” for a repeat of the gas price explosion of 2022-23.

    All told, the UK cannot be oblivious to developments in the global gas market.

    A crisis in the making

    Resurgent gas demand after the lifting of COVID restrictions led to a quadrupling of UK gas prices in 2021. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Vladimir Putin throttled pipeline gas exports to Europe.

    Europe turned to its greatest source of flexible gas supply: seaborne LNG. A price war for cargoes followed. The spending power of European economies pulled shipments away from low-income countries in Asia, such as Pakistan and Bangladesh, which caused crippling blackouts and a pivot to coal-fired generation.

    Energy bills for an average household in the UK hit £4,279 in January 2023. The government protected consumers from the very worst at a cost of £51 billion in 2022-23, but the average household lost 8% of its budget to energy costs in 2022, rising to 18% for the poorest tenth of households. Roughly 2 million households on pre-payment meters were being cut off from their energy supply at least once a month at the height of the crisis.

    Clement winters, moderate gas demand in Asia and successful measures to curb European gas demand saw UK gas prices fall from mid-2023. But they are still relatively high – at 48% above the average in the three years before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

    One more winter

    Could things get worse? Back in 2022, experts spoke of a “three-winter crisis” because significant new LNG export capacity (primarily in the US and Qatar) wasn’t expected until 2025. That has held true, and supply and demand in the global LNG market remains taut.

    Several disturbances could destabilise this balance. The International Energy Agency expects that over 2024, global growth in gas demand will exceed the rate of growth in new LNG supply. Attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by the Houthi militia in Yemen, in response to Israel’s invasion of Gaza, have rerouted LNG shipping routes. Cargoes that would have passed through the Suez Canal must now take the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope.

    At the end of 2024, a major five-year agreement governing the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine will expire, and there is no prospect of renewal. Russian gas supplies to Europe will fall by around 5% of the EU’s total gas imports, or 65% of all gas imports into Austria, Hungary and Slovakia.

    While Europe has been saved by mild winters over the last two years, this luck could break in 2024-25 according to some forecasts. Temperature – and the demand it creates for heating – will probably decide winter gas prices in Europe.

    Geopolitical blowback

    How might the worst-case scenario of conflict in the Persian Gulf happen?

    LNG is shipped by sea on large tankers.
    Wojciech Wrzesien/Shutterstock

    Israel’s escalating military assaults on Hezbollah since September 17 have coincided with a 17% rise in UK gas prices. After Iran’s missile and drone strikes against Israel on October 1, European gas prices hit a new high for the year. This saw three LNG tankers destined for Asia change course mid-journey and head for Europe.

    Israel has vowed retribution for the Iranian strike. Having obliterated Gaza and decapitated Hezbollah’s leadership, and with resolute material support from the US, Israel may now see Iran as vulnerable.

    A severe response by Israel, targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities or oil infrastructure, would further up the ante. Wishing to avoid direct conflict, Iran could decide to target not Israel, but the flow of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz on which its western backers depend. Qatari LNG shipments through the strait account for 20% of global supply on their own.

    Any interruption would also block Iran’s oil exports, afflict Iran’s friends as much as its foes, and kill Iran’s current reconciliation with the Gulf states. It is unlikely, but one would hope that the warning signs in the global gas market would remind western decision-makers that the conflict in the Middle East can continue to blow back on them.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get our award-winning weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Michael Bradshaw receives funding from the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) that is funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI). He also advises the government, thinktanks and companies on energy matters.

    Louis Fletcher receives funding from the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC), which is funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) and the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC), part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI).

    – ref. The gas crisis is not over yet – https://theconversation.com/the-gas-crisis-is-not-over-yet-241538

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Nobody Wants This’ amps laughs about intermarriage in Judaism but intended humour hurts

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Celia E. Rothenberg, Associate Professor, Department of Religious Studies, McMaster University

    Kristen Bell and Adam Brody star in ‘Nobody Wants This.’ (Netflix)

    Netflix’s new rom-com Nobody Wants This debuted with great success: it occupied the No. 1 spot on Netflix’s Top 10 list for two weeks. It has been praised by a range of critics for its humour, “millennial magic” and pitch-perfect casting.

    Nobody Wants This presents viewers with a mix of classic stereotypes of both Jewish women and men, and the contemporary issue of intermarriage — marriage of two partners who are members of different religions — in Jewish communities.

    It revolves around a young, ambitious rabbi, Noah (Adam Brody), who falls in love with a non-Jewish woman, Joanne (Kristen Bell).

    Joanne and her sister Morgan (Justine Lupe) produce a podcast that features frank, spontaneous talk about sex and relationships, a discursive foil for Rabbi Noah’s carefully composed and tame sermons.

    The show is loosely inspired by creator Erin Foster’s own life as an agnostic woman who fell in love with her husband, Simon Tikhman, a Jewish man. Tikhman, although not a rabbi, wanted to marry a Jewish woman, leading Foster to convert to Judaism. Her conversion and involvement in her Jewish family led to the creation of Nobody Wants This.

    Foster has said she wanted to shed positive light on Jewish culture and her experiences of being brought into it.

    From my perspective as a scholar who has examined aspects of Jewish life and practice in North America, the problem is that Foster’s good intentions fall flat at best, and at worst, could hurt the very people Foster has joined.

    The character Joanne and her sister Morgan produce a podcast which features frank, spontaneous talk about sex and relationships.
    (Netflix)

    Stereotypes of women

    Quickly following the accolades, criticism of the show has particularly focused on its problematic stereotypes of Jewish women. Jessica Radloff wrote in Glamour that after watching two episodes she called her mom and said (speaking of Jewish women), “we come off as controlling, marriage-hungry women who want to plan dinner parties and alienate anyone who doesn’t share those same dreams.” Jessica Grose in the New York Times argues that nearly all the Jewish women in Nobody Wants This are “manipulative, spoiled and selfish.”

    Nobody Wants This reflects long-standing and popular Jewish stereotypes consistently featured in American films – the meddling matriarch, pampered princess and neurotic nebbish – stereotypes that have proven to be widely appealing and thus quite profitable.

    Rabbi Noah’s mother, Bina, is not only the meddling matriarch extreme version, but also a hypocrite who refuses to accept Joanne’s hostess gift when they first meet — a lovely charcuterie tray — because it contains pork (prosciutto). Joanne later discovers Bina secretly stuffing the prosciutto into her mouth.

    Noah’s ex-girlfriend, sister-in-law and their friends seem the epitome of pampered princesses, or JAPs (Jewish American Princesses) — one-dimensional characters who exclude Joanne from their social circle, often appearing overly concerned with jewelry or solely focused on husbands, children and social lives.

    The rabbi

    Foster has said the character of a weed-smoking Rabbi Noah defies stereotypes of a rabbi, yet he can equally be seen to echo the neurotic nebbish, an American Jewish man who is “emasculated, insecure, passive, … romantically obsessed with Gentile women.”

    While Rabbi Noah might be called “hot rabbi” at his Jewish summer camp by teen girls, he works to appease his mother’s demands, he can’t (really) play basketball and he won’t commit to his long-term Jewish girlfriend (who eventually finds his hidden engagement ring and gives it to herself).

    Foster has said these characters are “not, in my opinion, Jewish stereotypes. They’re comedic points of view,” and has also pointed to the show’s sensitive female characters, such as a female rabbi who welcomes Joanne. Present in the writer’s room, Foster noted, were Jewish women, including converts, as well as men with a variety of Jewish backgrounds.

    Rabbi Steve Leder, former senior rabbi of Wilshire Boulevard Temple in Los Angeles was also a consultant on the show.

    Trailer for ‘Nobody Wants This.’

    Perhaps there is some room for comedy here, but the timing is less than ideal. Antisemitism is at a new level of ferocity in the United States and around the world.

    Stereotypes, however potentially humorous, can create, affirm or increase prejudice and distorted understandings of Jews and Jewish life.

    Religious intermarriage

    And what of intermarriage, the seemingly most pressing issue standing between Rabbi Noah and Joanne?

    Is intermarriage so unimaginable, impractical and undesirable for rabbis and their congregants to navigate? There are rabbis who work within liberal streams of Judaism who are not only not opposed to intermarriage, but also in intermarriages themselves.

    Rabbi Gershon Winkler, a formerly Orthodox rabbi who left Orthodoxy and now identifies as independent, points to Jewish precedent for such marriages: the Biblical and Talmudic figures of Moses, Eliezer the High Priest, Joshua, Boaz and Rabbi Akiva who were all married to non-Jews.

    Intermarried rabbis exist within Humanist, Reform (Rabbi Noah’s most likely affiliation), Jewish Renewal and Reconstructionist Jewish movements, although not within Conservative and Orthodox streams.

    Statistics about intermarriage in the U.S. demonstrate quite a varied portrait of Jewish life: overall, 42 per cent of American Jewish adults have a non-Jewish spouse; among those who married after 2010, intermarriage rates reach 61 per cent. Of non-Orthodox Jews, 72 per cent are intermarried, while 98 per cent of Orthodox Jews report their spouse is Jewish.

    In real life, harmful stereotypes of Jews persist, while intermarriage in Jewish communities, lived by many couples and families in the U.S. and beyond, is a nuanced and rich reality reflecting many factors.

    Nobody Wants This makes for a successful and profitable rom-com that hurts some while others laugh.

    Celia E. Rothenberg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. ‘Nobody Wants This’ amps laughs about intermarriage in Judaism but intended humour hurts – https://theconversation.com/nobody-wants-this-amps-laughs-about-intermarriage-in-judaism-but-intended-humour-hurts-241070

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What are you really eating? 1 in 5 seafood products in our study were mislabelled

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Matthew R. J. Morris, Associate Professor of Biology, Ambrose University

    If you eat seafood, you could be unknowingly consuming an endangered species without realizing it due to fish mislabelling. Mislabelling is a worldwide issue, and it occurs when the species of fish you think you’re buying is not the one you actually receive.

    Tracing fish from capture to table is logistically complex, as fish products often pass through multiple countries. Along the way, products can be misidentified as another species or intentionally renamed to make more profit.

    For instance, a cheap fish like tilapia may be given the name of a more expensive fish, like red snapper, or an endangered species might be passed off as a better-faring alternative.

    Seafood mislabelling not only threatens vulnerable marine populations, but makes it harder for people to make informed, ethical choices about the food they eat.

    Searching for mislabelling in Calgary

    To investigate this issue in Canada, our recent research paper examined mislabelling and ambiguous market names in invertebrate and finfish products — fish with fins, like cod, salmon and tuna — in Calgary between 2014 and 2020. This was the first study of its kind in Canada to compare shellfish to finfish.

    University students sampled 347 finfish product and 109 shellfish — including shrimp, octopus and oysters — from Calgary restaurants and grocery stores. These samples were then genetically tested using a species-specific marker called a DNA barcode.

    In Canada, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency maintains a Fish List that provides the acceptable common names for the labelling of fish in Canada.

    A seafood product was considered mislabelled if it was sold using a name not found on the Fish List for the DNA-identified species. For instance, there is only one species that can be sold under the name salmon: Atlantic salmon. If sockeye salmon was sold as salmon without any other qualifier, it was considered mislabelled.

    Seafood mislabelling not only threatens vulnerable marine populations, but makes it harder for people to make informed, ethical choices about the food they eat.
    (Shutterstock)

    1 in 5 seafood products were mislabelled

    We discovered that mislabelling is running rampant in Calgary, and that certain product names are more likely to hide species of conservation concern. The result: one in five finfish, and one in five shellfish, were not as advertised. These results fell within the predicted global rates of seafood mislabelling.

    It was not difficult for students to stumble upon examples of mislabelling. Notable findings include:

    • 100 per cent of snapper and red snapper products were mislabelled. They were either tilapia (79 per cent) or a species of rockfish or snapper that cannot be sold under those names (21 per cent).
    • Nine salmon products were determined to be rainbow trout, which are cheaper.
    • Three Pacific cod were determined to be Atlantic cod, which are listed as vulnerable by the International Union for Conservation of Nature.
    • Two eel products were determined to be the critically endangered European eel.
    • Cuttlefish, squid and octopus were often mislabelled as one another.

    Some products, however, fared better than others. All Atlantic salmon, basa, halibut, mackerel, sockeye salmon and Pacific white shrimp were as advertised.

    Mislabelling hurts

    Calgary’s mislabelled seafoods has far-reaching and well-documented implications for public health, conservation and the economy.

    For instance, one student purchased “white tuna” at an all-you-can-eat sushi buffet that turned out to be escolar. Escolar is sometimes called the “laxative of the sea” for the effects its fatty acids can have on digestion. People have landed in the hospital because of this fish.

    Several examples of mislabelling involved substituting an expensive product for a cheaper species: tilapia for snapper, rainbow trout for Atlantic salmon. While companies in places like Miami and Mississippi have faced fines for such fraudulent practices, the global nature of fisheries makes legal action difficult.



    Read more:
    Confusion at the fish counter: How to eat fish responsibly

    European eel are critically endangered, yet students found this species twice in the Calgary market. There is a global black market for European eel and a Canadian company was fined in 2021 for illegally importing them.

    Although red snapper is faring poorly in the wild, replacing it with tilapia is not helping snapper conservation. Instead it provides an illusion of snapper abundance.

    The situation is even murkier when it comes to invertebrates like shrimp, squid and octopus. Unfortunately, so little is known about their conservation status that we couldn’t assess their risks.

    The study found that 100 per cent of snapper and red snapper products were mislabelled.
    (Shutterstock)

    What you can do

    If you eat seafood, there is a chance you could be misled as a consumer and end up eating threatened species. You can reduce these possibilities by doing the following:

    1. Purchase whole, head-on finfish whenever possible, as they are harder to mislabel.

    2. Purchase seafood products that are certified sustainable, as these have been shown to have lower rates of mislabelling.

    3. Purchase products that clearly name the exact species being purchased.

    4. Write to your MPs in support for laws seeking to trace fish from boat to table — Canada has improved its regulations, but it can do better.

    This will require that you brush up on your fish identification skills, but it’s a small price to pay for protecting our fish, saving on groceries and limiting unexpected and urgent trips to the restroom.

    Ambiguous names hide protected species

    To help vendors, the Fish List permits the use of ambiguous names, meaning the same name can be applied to multiple species. Snapper could refer to 96 different species, tuna to 14, cod to two. This helps vendors when related species are difficult to tell apart and is expected to reduce mislabelling.

    We noticed that seafood products with ambiguous names were just as likely to be mislabelled as those with precise names. We wondered: which is worse for conservation, mislabelling or ambiguous names? After all, tuna could legally include yellowfin tuna (least concern) or southern bluefin tuna (endangered).

    A statistical test found that ambiguous names were more important than mislabelling in hiding threatened species. This is a good thing, because it suggests there is a way consumers can help.

    Just as you wouldn’t go to a restaurant and order a “mammal sandwich,” why settle for “fish and chips?” If we as consumers can vote with our wallets by buying Pacific cod instead of cod, or yellowfin tuna instead of tuna, we can be more confident that we aren’t eating the ocean’s equivalent of the giant panda.

    Matthew R. J. Morris received funding from Internationalization at Home in Science Education (i@Home) for this research.

    – ref. What are you really eating? 1 in 5 seafood products in our study were mislabelled – https://theconversation.com/what-are-you-really-eating-1-in-5-seafood-products-in-our-study-were-mislabelled-240891

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Walk or run in the rain? A physics-based approached to staying dry (or at least drier)

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Jacques Treiner, Physicien théoricien, Université Paris Cité

    We’ve all been there – caught outside without an umbrella as the sky opens up. Whether it’s a light drizzle or a heavy downpour, instinct tells us that running will minimise how wet we get. But is that really true? Let’s take a scientific look at this common dilemma.

    You’re out and about, and it starts to rain – and naturally you’ve forgotten your umbrella. Instinctively, you lean forward and quicken your pace. We all tend to believe that moving faster means we’ll spend less time getting wet, even if it means getting hit with more rain as we move forward.

    But is this instinct actually correct? Can we build a simple model to find out if speeding up really reduces how wet we’ll get? More specifically, does the amount of water that hits you depend on your speed? And is there an ideal speed that minimises the total water you encounter on your way from point A to point B?

    Let’s break it down while keeping the scenario simple. Imagine rain falling evenly and vertically. We can divide your body into two surfaces: those that are vertical (your front and back) and those that are horizontal (your head and shoulders).

    When moving forward in the rain, vertical surfaces such as a person’s body will be hit by more raindrops as speed increases. From the walker’s perspective, the drops appear to fall at an angle, with a horizontal velocity equal to their own walking speed.

    While walking faster means encountering more drops per second, it also reduces the time spent in the rain. As a result, the two effects balance each other out: more drops per unit of time, but less time in the rain overall.

    When the walker is stationary, rain only falls on horizontal surfaces – the top of the head and shoulders. As the walker begins to move, she or he receives raindrops that would have fallen in front, while missing the drops that now fall behind. This creates a balance, and ultimately, the amount of rain received on horizontal surfaces remains unchanged, regardless of the walking speed.

    However, since walking faster reduces the total time spent in the rain, the overall amount of water collected on horizontal surfaces will be less.

    All in all, it’s a good idea to pick up the pace when walking in the rain

    For those who enjoy a mathematical approach, here’s a breakdown:

    Let ρ represent the number of drops per unit volume, and let a denote their vertical velocity. We’ll denote Sh as the horizontal surface area of the individual (e.g., the head and shoulders) and Sv as the vertical surface area (e.g., the body).

    When you’re standing still, the rain only falls on the horizontal surface, Sh. This is the amount of water you’ll receive on these areas.

    Even if the rain falls vertically, from the perspective of a walker moving at speed v, it appears to fall obliquely, with the angle of the drops’ trajectory depending on your speed.

    During a time period T, a raindrop travels a distance of aT. Therefore, all raindrops within a shorter distance will reach the surface: these are the drops inside a cylinder with a base of Sh and a height of aT, which gives:

    ρ.Sh.a.T.

    As we have seen, as we move forward, the drops appear to be animated by an oblique velocity that results from the composition of velocity a and velocity v. The number of drops reaching Sh remains unchanged, since velocity v is horizontal and therefore parallel to Sh. However, the number of drops reaching surface Sv – which was previously zero when the walker was stationary – has now increased. This is equal to the number of drops contained within a horizontal cylinder with a base area of Sv and a length of v.T. This length represents the horizontal distance the drops travel during this time interval.

    In total, the walker receives a number of drops given by the expression:

    ρ.(Sh.a + Sv.v). T

    Now we need to take into account the time interval during which the walker is exposed to the rain. If you’re covering a distance d at constant speed v, the time you spend walking is d/v. Plugging this into the equation, the total amount of water you encounter is:

    ρ.(Sh.a + Sv.v). d/v = ρ.(Sh.a/v + Sv). d

    This equation gives us two key insights:

    • The faster you move, the less water hits our head and shoulders.

    • The water hitting the vertical part of your body stays the same regardless of speed, because the shorter time spent in the rain is offset by encountering more raindrops per second.

    To sum it all up: it’s a good idea to lean forward and move quickly when you’re caught in the rain. But careful: leaning forward increases Sh. To really stay drier, you’ll need to increase your speed enough to compensate for this.

    Jacques Treiner ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    – ref. Walk or run in the rain? A physics-based approached to staying dry (or at least drier) – https://theconversation.com/walk-or-run-in-the-rain-a-physics-based-approached-to-staying-dry-or-at-least-drier-240849

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Yoruba vs Igbo: how a 1977 football cup caused ethnic tensions to boil over in Nigeria

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Chuka Onwumechili, Professor of Communications, Howard University

    Football is a game of passion, and passions can become particularly inflamed when the sport represents larger political struggles. In Nigeria in 1977, an Africa-wide football contest fuelled the ethnic rivalry between the Yoruba and the Igbo people to the point that the military had to intervene. The game was to be played as a semi-final in the Africa Cup Winners’ Cup, the club football tournament that would go on to become the Caf Confederation Cup.

    As scholars of sports communication, we recently published a research paper about that 1977 confrontation between Shooting Stars of Ibadan (Ibadan is home to a Yoruba majority in the south-west) and Enugu Rangers (Enugu is an Igbo state).



    Read more:
    Hamas-Israel conflict: Algeria offers to host Palestine’s football matches – the bigger history

    Our study adds to a history of football and politics that is not well documented in Africa. In the process it shows that football represents more than just sport, but can also be a way of understanding cultural and political issues.

    Yoruba vs Igbo

    The rivalry between the Igbos and Yorubas is almost as old as the formation of Nigeria in 1914. Both groups vie politically and for jobs. Each forms roughly a fifth of the Nigerian population. The Igbo had lost political power after the Nigerian Civil War of 1967-1970.

    This rivalry became particularly visible in Nigerian football from the 1950s when ethnic groups contested annually for the Alex Oni Cup. The Yorubas often won, the Igbos a close second but the tournament was eventually discontinued because of fights between players and spectators.

    After this, Igbos did not have a representative club team in national competitions until after the war ended in 1970. Top Igbo footballers were employed at various clubs across the country, particularly in Lagos. Yorubas played for various clubs in their home region. One such club was the Shooting Stars. They made up the bulk of the Ibadan Lions team that won the national Challenge Cup four times from 1959 to 1969.



    Read more:
    Football and politics in Kinshasa: how DRC’s elite use sport to build their reputations and hold on to power

    After the civil war, most Igbo footballers – who had fought unsuccessfully for the secession of Biafra state – were afraid to live in other parts of the country. Enugu Rangers was formed and the club dominated Nigerian football in the 1970s and 1980s.

    Shooting Stars had become the beacon club of the Yorubas and quickly developed a rivalry with Enugu Rangers.

    The semi-final that caused all the trouble

    This ongoing rivalry escalated when the two clubs beat off opposition from across the continent to meet in the two legs of the semi-final of the Africa Cup Winners Cup in 1977. Shooting Stars were defending the title. Rangers chose not to take part in the more prestigious Africa Champions Club’s Cup – instead they sought to equal Shooting Stars’ feat of winning the Cup Winners Cup.

    To add to the tension, Nigeria’s national team was made up of mainly by players from these two clubs – and the national team was competing in the last stage of the qualifiers for the 1978 men’s football World Cup. It was feared that the rivalry would affect its chances. Almost daily, the newspapers reported on accusations levelled by officials of the two teams at each other and the Nigerian Football Association (today the Nigeria Football Federation).

    The association had to find solutions – fast. Both teams had played their home matches in their own cities so far. The association decided that their two semi-final games should be played in a “neutral” location: Lagos.



    Read more:
    Egypt’s powerful football fans and politics: a toxic mix that could combust during Afcon

    But after the first leg, a designated “home game” for Shooting Stars, ended 0-0, controversy erupted. Lagos is in the west of the country, home of the Yorubas. This was seen to give the Shooting Stars an advantage. There was also controversy about whether the teams could call up some or all of their players in the national team. The association’s authority to re-schedule the second leg was then called into question. These issues were argued at fever pitch and publicly by fans and in the media, with threats and ethnic undertones.

    The association wanted to bar both Rangers and Shooting Stars from using their national team players, but was eventually forced to agree on the release of all players to play in the final leg of the Africa Cup Winners’ Cup semi-final. But not before making a very late request that the Confederation of African Football put off the game until after the national team’s World Cup qualifying games.

    Shooting Stars, frustrated by the postponement, lashed out publicly and in the media. They accused Nigeria’s federal sports commissioner, Dandeson Isokrari, of ethnocentrism and favouritism. Isokrari was an easterner, from Enugu Rangers territory.

    With tension boiling over and threats issued from both sides, the second-in-command of the Nigeria state, Major General Musa Yar’ Adua, stepped in to avoid ethnic strife and possible violence. He instructed the match to move to Kaduna, a northern city, away from the homes of the clubs. This decision by the country’s military leadership calmed nerves.



    Read more:
    Morocco will co-host the 2030 World Cup – Palestine and Western Sahara will be burning issues

    An overflowing crowd packed the Kaduna venue from the early morning. In the early minutes of the game, Shooting Stars mounted a siege in the Rangers’ goal area. It was so tense that journalists and photographers converged behind the Rangers goal. Angry Rangers supporters claimed they were not journalists and photographers, but disguised juju men concocting mystical incantations that kept the ball rooted in the Rangers goal area.

    The match ended in another 0-0 tie but Rangers advanced when goalkeeper Emmanuel Okala helped to turn the penalty kick tiebreaker in the club’s favour, 4-2. Despite the tensions, there were no reported incidents of violence during the match.

    This epic contest between two clubs during a continental cup contest in 1977 reminds us of the rivalry that persists even today among ethnic groups across the continent. Football often represents such ethnic rivalries beyond the field of play – and in the case of Enugu Rangers and Shooting Stars it reached a dangerous level that forced the state to step in.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Yoruba vs Igbo: how a 1977 football cup caused ethnic tensions to boil over in Nigeria – https://theconversation.com/yoruba-vs-igbo-how-a-1977-football-cup-caused-ethnic-tensions-to-boil-over-in-nigeria-239128

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: B.C. election tells the tale of two British Columbias divided along ideological fault lines

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Philip Resnick, Professor Emeritus, Political Science, University of British Columbia

    The British Columbia election has turned out to be a nail-biter. Throughout the four-week campaign, the polls predicted a very close race between the incumbent NDP led by David Eby and a newly rejuvenated Conservative Party under the leadership of John Rustad. Those polls turned out to be accurate as no clear winner has emerged in the hours after British Columbians cast their ballots.

    The B.C. Liberal Party, a right-of-centre amalgam of Liberal and Conservative voters federally that had ruled the province between 2001-2017, disappeared from the scene, resulting in a political realignment — New Democrats vs. Conservatives — and matching what has become the norm in Canada’s three other western provinces.

    As I write this, the NDP leads or is elected in 46 seats, the Conservatives in 45, with the Green Party’s two elected members holding the balance of power. The results are so close in several ridings that it may be at least another week for outstanding mail ballots to come in and recounts to occur before knowing the definitive result.

    Parallels to previous elections

    In one way, the 2024 election is a repeat of the 2017 vote, when the B.C. Liberals and the NDP were just two seats apart. The Greens threw their three seats behind the NDP to pave the way for an NDP government. The same may well prove to be the case this time around once the dust has settled.

    In another way, this election is reminiscent of 1952, when a newly led Social Credit party under W.A.C. Bennett came out of nowhere to topple the old-line Liberal and Conservative parties, edge out the CCF (the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation) — predecessor to today’s NDP — by a single seat and go on to rule the province for a full 20 years.



    Read more:
    How the British Columbia election is being haunted by the ghosts of 1952

    In 1951, Bennett had broken with his party, the Conservatives, to sit as an Independent MLA. Rustad had been turfed out of his party, the B.C. Liberals, to sit as an Independent MLA, before assuming the leadership of a B.C.’s dormant Conservative Party. The Conservatives had not held a seat in the provincial legislature for almost 50 years, and had last won a provincial election in 1928.

    Yet in 2024, with 43.5 per cent of the popular vote compared to the NDP’s 44.5 per cent, Rustad’s party is a major contender for power.

    Geographical and ideological divides

    What the election results ultimately show is that there are two British Columbias. The NDP tends to dominate on the coast, with a clear majority of the seats in the Lower Mainland and on Vancouver Island. The Conservatives dominate the B.C. Interior of the province, with a fair sprinkling of suburban seats in the Lower Mainland as well.

    Beyond the geographical divide lies a deeper ideological one. In some ways it parallels the old divide between a more free-enterprise oriented party and one with a stronger commitment to the welfare state. Rustad said as much in his speech on election night. But there is more to the story than that.

    The NDP, after all, has become much more of a centrist party than it was previously, in particular when it governed the province under Dave Barrett between 1972 and 1975.

    It’s no accident that in the 2024 election, no small number of federal Liberal supporters voiced their support for the NDP rather than the Conservatives. With respect to issues like gun control, protection of the environment, reconciliation with Indigenous Peoples or vaccine mandates during pandemics, their views align more closely with the NDP than the Conservatives.

    The Conservatives, on the other hand, spoke to the frustrations many British Columbians feel in terms of the housing affordability crisis, the serious shortcomings in the province’s health-care system and the toxic drug crisis in B.C. cities. Eby admitted as much in his own election night speech.

    The B.C. Conservatives’ call for change echoed what federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has been saying at the federal level. Not surprisingly, support for the Conservatives provincially closely matches for support for the federal Conservatives in the province.

    Governing from the centre

    British Columbia is clearly polarized politically, a phenomenon we’re seeing even more distinctly south of the border and in various European countries.

    The task of governing from the centre — on the assumption that the NDP and Greens reach a confidence-and-supply agreement — may therefore prove a more challenging one than before due to a much empowered Conservative opposition.

    But had the Conservatives won a clear mandate to govern, they would have faced significant opposition from the more liberal-minded sections of the population given some of the party’s hard-line positions on unabashed resource development, Indigenous reconciliation and the role of private versus public providers in the health-care system.

    Such is the state of play in Canada’s westernmost province.

    Philip Resnick does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. B.C. election tells the tale of two British Columbias divided along ideological fault lines – https://theconversation.com/b-c-election-tells-the-tale-of-two-british-columbias-divided-along-ideological-fault-lines-241767

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What does class mean today in Britain? Podcast

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Laura Hood, Host, Know Your Place podcast, The Conversation

    Gig economy workers take a break in Chinatow, London. Shutterstock/Grant Rooney

    Social class continues to influence British people’s opportunities and the way they think about them, even if the boundaries between those classes have shifted.

    In the third part of Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics, a podcast series from The Conversation Documentaries, we explore how class is defined and measured, and how the UK’s changing class identity interacts with identity politics.

    Over the course of the last half century, there’s been a big shift in the make up of the labour market, and a decline in what are traditionally considered working class jobs, such as in manufacturing. And yet, data from the annual British Social Attitudes (BSA) survey run by the National Centre for Social Research, found that 52% of people identify as working class compared with 43% who identify as middle class.

    According to Oliver Heath, professor of politics at Royal Holloway University of London, who co-authored the chapter on class for the BSA report in 2023, people still think about themselves in class terms to exactly the same degree as they did 40 years ago.

    There’s been no decline in terms of whether people think of themselves as identifying with a class, and no decline in whether they identify with being working class or not. So that seems remarkably stable and if anything showed some signs of actually increasing.

    The growth of self-employment, and in particular the gig economy, has disrupted the UK’s traditional class structure, according to Daniel Evans, a lecturer of criminology, sociology and social policy at Swansea University.

    The size of the formally self-employed has absolutely exploded. It’s close to about 5 million,  which is coming very close to the size of the entire public sector. This is absolutely unprecedented. In the early 1970s, it was about 1 million self-employed people.

    Evans argues this has also muddled what it means to be part of the petit bourgeoisie, someone who own the means of your own production in a Marxist sense.

    So many people are doing almost like bogus forms of self-employment. Whereas in the past, lots and lots of people are doing this voluntarily, a lot of working class people aspired to join the ranks of the self-employed because they wanted to be their own boss … more and more people have been forced, basically, into self-employment.

    Education, education, education

    Amid these shifts, education has become a dominant force in recent years, overriding class defined by occupation or income as the most influential factor in voter behaviour. According to Paula Surridge, professor of political sociology at the University of Bristol, this was true for the Brexit vote too, she says.

    Education is a stronger predictor of Brexit vote than class, with those with degree or higher level education more likely to vote remain than those with lower level qualifications. And the reason for that is the Brexit vote was primarily driven by a set of social values that don’t relate to economics.

    Town and gown: Britain’s modern political divide.
    Shutterstock

    This can be a tricky dynamic to talk about. The education divide is not a term intended to deliver a value judgement but describes two distinct experiences of life. The university population in the UK has exploded since the 1990s and going to university has a profound effect on a person’s outlook, according to John Curtice, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and senior research fellow at Natcen:

    The experience of university, where people get mixed with people from diverse backgrounds, they’re encouraged, particularly in the humanities, to be critically reflective about culture, etc. that that seems to create a rather more socially liberal ambience.

    For more analysis, listen to the full episode of Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics on The Conversation Documentaries.

    A transcript is available on Apple Podcasts.

    Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics is produced and mixed by Anouk Millet for The Conversation. It’s supported by the National Centre for Social Research.

    Newsclips in the episode from BBC Newsnight, Financial Times, The Frost Report, CBC News, Sky News, France24 English, AP Archive, BBC News, Official Jeremy Corbyn Channel and Channel 4 News.

    Listen to The Conversation Documentaries via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    John Curtice receives funding from UKRI-ESRC. Tim Bale has previously received funding for research on the Conservative Party and party members from the Leverhulme Trust and from the Economic and Social Research Council. Oliver Heath does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment. Paula Surridge does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment. Daniel Evans does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment. Know Your Place: what happened to class in British politics is supported by the National Centre for Social Research.

    – ref. What does class mean today in Britain? Podcast – https://theconversation.com/what-does-class-mean-today-in-britain-podcast-241412

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Toothbrushes and showerheads covered in viruses ‘unlike anything we’ve seen before’ – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Primrose Freestone, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Microbiology, University of Leicester

    Toothbrushes and showerheads in American homes are teeming with viruses known as bacteriophages (bacteria eaters), a new study has found. Many of these “phages” – as they’re known for short – have never been identified before.

    The researchers, from Northwestern University in Illinois, swabbed 92 showerheads and 36 toothbrushes. They described what they found as “unlike anything we’ve seen before” and “absolutely wild”. But how alarming is this finding? And what should you do to remain safe?

    It is increasingly recognised that wherever you look for microbial species (viruses and bacteria) you will probably find them, particularly in damp places where they thrive, such as showerheads and toothbrushes. The fact that bacteria-infecting viruses were found in great numbers on showerheads and toothbrushes should not come as a surprise. Where there are bacteria, there will inevitably be viruses that infect them.

    People’s homes are host to a variety of microbial communities, which include bacteria, viruses, fungi and protozoa. And it has been known for over a decade that showerheads and their hoses can harbour various bacterial species. These include ones that can cause ill health, such as mycobacteria, which can cause respiratory infections, Legionella which causes legionnaire’s disease and Pontiac fever, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa, which can cause ear and eye infections.

    Showerheads

    These bacteria have been found on showerheads at levels over 100 times those found in tap water.

    In showerheads, there will inevitably be viruses that infect the bacteria found on them. And the more species of bacteria there are, the greater the diversity of phages likely to be present.

    The presence of a microscopic ecosystem in your showerhead also means every time you shower, you are coating yourself in the showerhead bacteria and their related phage viruses. And this is an infection risk.

    To disinfect your showerhead, soak it in vinegar. It has the added benefit of removing any limescale.

    Unscrew the showerhead, brush off any soap residue, and place the showerhead in a plastic bag or other container with enough undiluted white vinegar to cover the item. Leave it for up to two hours.

    Rinse the showerhead well after taking it out of the vinegar solution, and repeat every month or so, depending on usage.

    Toothbrushes

    The researchers at Northwestern University also looked at phages inhabiting regularly used toothbrushes. Unsurprisingly, they also found a diversity of phages on the brush heads.

    During brushing, toothbrushes come into contact with structures in the mouth (gum, teeth, tongue, cheeks, uvula and palates). And each of these is home to hundreds of species of bacteria and other microbes.

    Oral microbes play an important role in keeping the mouth healthy by excluding harmful germs (pathogens), helping digest food, and regulating the working of the heart and immune system.

    The bacterial diversity of the mouth and tooth microbiomes will, as the US study found, influence the diversity of phages deposited onto toothbrushes.

    The study provides an interesting snapshot of the diversity of the oral micro-ecosystems (bacteria and viruses) that are deposited on toothbrushes but may cause some people to worry that the microbes on their toothbrushes are a potential source of infection.

    The toothbrush viruses identified were bacterial, not human viruses so they are not a health concern. However, while toothbrush microbes are not a risk to the toothbrush owner, as the microbes on it are their own, they can cause infections in others if a toothbrush is shared. One person’s harmless oral microbes can be another’s pathogens, leading to illnesses ranging from colds to endocarditis (a life-threatening inflammation of the heart’s inner lining).

    Phages explained.

    It is a good idea to clean your toothbrush regularly. The NHS advises running it under the hot tap for about 30 seconds, followed by air drying.

    Other websites advise soaking toothbrush heads in antibacterial mouthwash or denture cleaners. For electric toothbrushes, you should follow the manufacturer’s cleaning guidance.

    The take-home message from the Northwestern study is that we live in a richly microbial world and that interactions with bacteria and other microbes in our homes are an integral part of our human biology. Also, despite many new phage species being discovered, there is no cause for alarm – as long as you follow the advice above and keep your showerhead and toothbrush clean.

    Primrose Freestone does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Toothbrushes and showerheads covered in viruses ‘unlike anything we’ve seen before’ – new study – https://theconversation.com/toothbrushes-and-showerheads-covered-in-viruses-unlike-anything-weve-seen-before-new-study-241072

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Education and gender equality: focus on girls isn’t fair and isn’t enough – global study

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Kathryn Watt, Research Manager, The Asenze Project, University of KwaZulu-Natal

    For the past two decades, investing in girls’ schooling has been hailed as a cornerstone of promoting gender equality in sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2016 and 2018 the World Bank Group invested US$3.2 billion in education projects benefiting adolescent girls.

    The logic is straightforward. Girls face significant barriers to education, among them poverty, insufficient academic support, adolescent pregnancy, child marriage, and school related gender-based violence. Reducing these barriers can substantially improve their educational outcomes.

    But is this approach – investing in girls’ education – fair to boys, and enough to make a meaningful impact on girls’ lives in the long term? Having studied the relationship between interventions and the way people’s lives develop in adverse contexts, we argue that the answer is no on both counts.

    We explain this view in a recent paper. In it we compare the different effects of directing development assistance: improving girls’ school enrolment, prioritising schooling for both girls and boys, and addressing barriers to gender equality throughout life.

    We used publicly available data for 136 low- and middle-income countries, including those in sub-Saharan Africa. We calculated the female-to-male ratio for important education indicators in each country to show where girls are ahead, on par or behind boys.

    Our findings suggest that the current focus on girls’ schooling may both unintentionally disadvantage boys and be a relatively inefficient means of advancing gender equality.

    Girls’ and boys’ education in sub-Saharan Africa

    We focused on two indicators to assess the current state of girls’ and boys’ education in the region:

    Harmonised learning outcomes measure learning and progress based on the results from seven different types of tests combined and made comparable among children attending school. They reflect the environmental inputs into learning and achievement, such as school quality. Completing secondary school, meanwhile, has been shown to increase a person’s potential for future development, opportunities for employment and higher education.

    In most countries in sub-Saharan Africa, girls are behind boys on secondary school completion. The average completion rate for boys is 30%. For girls it is just 24%. In southern Africa specifically, girls have higher completion rates than boys. Figure 1 shows where girls are ahead or behind on this indicator.

    In sub-Saharan Africa, the average harmonised learning outcomes score for boys is 301; it is 303 for girls. Our results show that, for most countries in the region, girls are achieving roughly equal scores to their male peers.

    This suggests that gender gaps in education are not as pronounced as is often portrayed.

    Firstly, although school completion rates are higher for boys, this gap is small, and overall completion rates remain low for both genders.

    Secondly, where boys are averaging higher levels of completed schooling, it is not due to better academic performance. Once enrolled, girls in the region tend to keep up with boys in school completion and academic performance.

    Rather than asking who is ahead, it’s more important to note that neither boys nor girls are doing well. Our results show that educational outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa – including school performance and completion – are alarmingly poor for both girls and boys.

    So, if all children in the region are clearly in need of support, why target education interventions at girls alone?

    Large disparities in later life

    The key to gender equality lies in ensuring girls and boys, and men and women, have the same opportunities to reach their potential from early life, through late childhood and adolescence, into adulthood.

    Research emphasises that human development does not hinge on any single factor such as schooling. Rather, it depends on capabilities built throughout life.

    In early childhood, proper nutrition, among other things, is crucial for developing a child’s basic physical and cognitive capabilities. These early investments protect the potential for human development.

    During childhood and adolescence, factors like quality schooling and social support allow young people to realise that potential.

    Finally, in adulthood, social norms and job opportunities determine how fully a person can use their realised potential.

    Our findings suggest that, on average, in low- and middle-income countries the development potential of girls and young women is protected and realised better than it is for boys and young men. But later in life, women don’t have as many opportunities as men to use that potential.

    This implies that initiatives focused on girls’ schooling are likely not the most effective means of promoting girls’ development or reducing gender gaps.

    Large disparities emerge later in girls’ lives. For example, our findings show that women earn less than men in almost every country in sub-Saharan Africa. These results reflect how patriarchal norms, particularly the unequal burden of housework and childcare, tend to push women into lower-paid informal or part-time work. Even when similarly qualified and in comparable positions, women typically earn less than men.

    These findings, when considered in the context of the current state of education in the region, challenge the idea that focusing solely on girls’ education is enough to promote their lifelong development or meaningfully reduce gender inequalities.

    The argument that boys should not receive the same support as girls is weak.

    How to promote greater gender equality in sub-Saharan Africa

    Targeted interventions are likely to have the greatest impact where girls and women face the greatest barriers: in using their potential. That means, for example:

    Social protection policies, including childcare and reproductive health services, can ease women’s caregiving burden and give them the time and agency to fully participate in politics, the economy and society.

    There are also opportunities beyond government, where support for trade unions, for instance, has been shown to help narrow gender wage gaps.

    Addressing gender inequality requires a life-course approach. It should involve quality education for both genders, and tackling the policies, practices and social norms that marginalise women and girls, especially in the later stages of their lives.

    Sara Naicker, Jere Behrman and Linda Richter contributed to the research this article is based on. Dhyan Saravanja contributed to this article.

    Chris Desmond receives funding from UK Research and Innovation Global Challenges Research Fund Accelerating Achievement for Africa’s Adolescents Hub,Grant/Award Number: ES/S008101/1

    Kathryn Watt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Education and gender equality: focus on girls isn’t fair and isn’t enough – global study – https://theconversation.com/education-and-gender-equality-focus-on-girls-isnt-fair-and-isnt-enough-global-study-240239

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Zimbabwe’s ZiG: devaluations won’t fix a currency that’s in trouble because of government overspending

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Jonathan Munemo, Professor of Economics, Salisbury University

    The Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe devalued the ZiG by 43% on 27 September 2024. This weakened the official exchange rate from 13.9 ZiG per US dollar to 24.4 ZiG per US dollar.

    The ZiG (Zimbabwe Gold) is the nation’s newest currency and was launched in April 2024.

    The unexpected devaluation was prompted by the need to contain resurgent exchange rate pressure which started back in August due to higher food import costs and a slide in mineral export sales. The central bank decided to ease this pressure by lowering the value of the currency instead of burning reserves to keep its value steady at 13.9 ZiG per dollar.

    The strain on the ZiG has intensified in the aftermath of the devaluation. It has weakened even further to more than 26 ZiG per dollar as of 18 October. This has raised speculation that it will continue to weaken.

    This would have a number of negative consequences. It would keep upward pressure on import prices, hurting households and businesses. If this happened, Zimbabwean households already hit by falling paycheques and savings might cut back further on spending.

    The strain on the currency also risks reigniting inflation. The risk comes after monthly inflation ticked up to 1.4% in August and then climbed to 5.8% in September. Resurgent inflation would also increase costs for businesses and threaten to stifle investment. That was on display in 2000-08 and 2019-20 when price instability dampened economic activity and created a costly business environment which discouraged investment.

    A further risk factor from currency instability is that it would deter foreign investors worried about the ZiG as a reliable store of value. The prospect of declining business investment, loss of confidence in the ZiG, and anaemic consumption would in turn be a major drag on economic activity. Economic growth in 2024 is expected to slow down to 2% from 5% last year. El Niño-induced drought, lower mining prices, and macroeconomic instability are among the key reasons.

    This is the sixth time Zimbabwe’s authorities have attempted to establish a stable national currency in the past 15 years. The history of failed attempts has cast a long shadow on the ZiG. The recent devaluation has not eased concerns about Zimbabwe’s struggles to develop and maintain a domestic currency that can be widely used for transactions and as a store of value on a voluntary basis.

    I have long thought the devaluation was inevitable. Authorities must confront the fundamental causes, which are rooted in a loss of faith in the ability of government to manage spending. In particular, its habit of printing money, overspending on its budgets and failing to expand the economy.

    Interventions

    The ZiG is part of a multicurrency system which allows individuals to use other major currencies including the US dollar, euro, South African rand and pound sterling.

    To increase the ZiG’s uptake, authorities imposed a number of measures. The new unit has to be used for paying a portion of company taxes and most government services. Fines are issued to traders unwilling to accept ZiG payments.

    Measures like these are not sufficient because they do not consider the real problems hindering success of the Zimbabwe dollar.

    The central bank also announced that it aims to slow the ZiG’s decline by imposing currency controls and raising the benchmark policy rate (the rate used to implement its monetary policy) from 20% to 35%. The jump in the cost of borrowing triggered by these measures will further weigh on business investment and consumer spending.

    Gains to Zimbabwean exporters from a cheaper ZiG are unlikely to be substantial because of an El Niño-induced drought which has devastated crops in southern Africa. And dollar earnings for Zimbabwe’s mineral exports have been hurt by lower commodity prices. The agriculture and food sector contributes about 17% to GDP and 40% of total export earnings on average, while mining accounts for about 12% of GDP and 80% of total exports.

    My worry is that a cheaper ZiG may not juice exports and reduce the trade shortfall of US$1,453 million recorded last year, given the hit to commodity prices and adverse impact of drought on agricultural production. A bigger trade deficit will keep downward pressure on the currency. The weaker ZiG could however boost inbound tourism.

    To retain a stable domestic currency, authorities will have to address deeper structural causes rooted in the country’s long history of printing money to pay for government overspending amid slow economic expansion. That means:

    • slashing the budget while giving greater spending priority to health, education, public infrastructure and other critical investments.

    • government weaning itself off dependence on printing money to finance fiscal deficits

    • supporting credible policies for more sustainable and private-sector led growth and policies for capturing more revenue from growth.

    Precedents

    This is not the first time that the Zimbabwe dollar has been unstable and weak. In the 2000s, printing money to finance government deficit spending produced periods of high inflation amid slow growth, making the currency weak and unstable.

    The currency eventually collapsed in 2009 due to hyperinflation and the US dollar became the official currency.

    Another local currency (the RTGS dollar) was later introduced in 2019. With the power to print more money restored, inflation rapidly accelerated and surpassed 500% in 2020. This made the new Zimbabwe dollar highly unstable and its value quickly deteriorated.

    As a result, the US dollar continued to be the dominant currency used in transactions and as a store of value. Inflation remained elevated until April 2024, when the ZiG was launched as the new national currency. Its value is backed by gold and foreign currency reserves.

    At first the move seemed to have tamed inflation. But widespread voluntary use of the ZiG failed to materialise. That’s because people are still wary of the government’s power to print money, which had been the key driver of inflation and currency instability.

    What policy makers can do

    Authorities must tackle the root causes of the nation’s currency struggles once and for all. Steps that can be taken to resolve longstanding structural factors include:

    • Re-prioritising public spending by undertaking deep fiscal reforms that will divert more resources towards spending on health, education, public infrastructure and other critical investments needed to boost growth. These reforms should also aim to capture more revenue from growth, for example, through tax reforms.

    • Implementing reforms to address corruption and improve governance is essential for imposing the discipline necessary to push back against covering fiscal deficits by printing money and for restoring faith in government institutions.

    • Pursuing credible policies for more sustainable and private-sector led growth. Strong growth expands tax revenues and gives the government more policy space to spend on essential services and critical investment needs.

    Devaluation and other measures that have been imposed to support the ZiG are not the solution.

    Jonathan Munemo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Zimbabwe’s ZiG: devaluations won’t fix a currency that’s in trouble because of government overspending – https://theconversation.com/zimbabwes-zig-devaluations-wont-fix-a-currency-thats-in-trouble-because-of-government-overspending-241686

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Poverty in Lagos isn’t just about money – here’s why

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Oluwaseyi Omowunmi Popogbe, Lecturer II, Crawford University

    Lagos is Nigeria’s economic powerhouse, but it has some of the worst slums in the country.

    Lagos slums are characterised by high levels of poverty – the state of not having enough resources to meet basic needs for living, such as food, water, shelter, healthcare and education.

    Poverty is multidimensional. It is not only about money. Yet poverty in Lagos slums has often been studied using traditional methods that focus mostly on income thresholds. A person is considered poor if their income falls below a certain level. This approach captures financial hardship. But it misses other aspects of poverty, such as lack of access to education, healthcare, clean water and decent living conditions.

    Measuring poverty requires a multidimensional approach, not simply an income approach. Multidimensional poverty means looking at all the aspects of deprivation to get a fuller picture of what it means to live in poverty. It helps policymakers and researchers understand that even with some income, a person may still be struggling because they don’t have other essential services.

    In a study of poverty in the Lagos State slums, two other development economists and I used a mathematical framework to model multidimensional poverty. We used what is known as the fuzzy set approach. This was developed in the 1990s as an alternative to purely monetary measures of poverty.

    The traditional monetary approach often classifies people as either “poor” or “not poor” based on specific cut-off points. In reality, poverty exists on a spectrum, and people can experience different levels of deprivation across various aspects of their lives. The fuzzy set approach accounts for this by assigning degrees of membership to different poverty indicators.

    We found considerable disparities in poverty, based on a multidimensional index, across slums in Lagos State. Our insights will enable economists and policymakers to see the different ways people in slums are deprived. In turn this should help them understand how to make their lives better in a more targeted and effective way.

    Background and methodological approach

    Our study focused on five big slums that lie close to the coastal line in Lagos state. These are among the slums the World Bank has identified for upgrading as part of a US$200 million loan project to improve drainage and solid waste management.

    We chose 400 respondents from the five slums: Makoko, Iwaya, Ilaje, Ijora Badia and Amukoko.

    According to Avijit Hazra and Nithya J Gogtay, researchers in bio-statistics and research methodology, a minimum of 384 samples is appropriate for a large population size. Nevertheless, the selected sample for this study limits the ability to generalise the findings to other slums, especially those with different characteristics.

    Findings

    The multidimensional poverty index was highest in Makoko and Iwaya. These scores indicate severe poverty, as they are above the threshold of 0.50.

    In contrast, Amukoko had the lowest multidimensional poverty index, showing relatively less severe deprivation across indicators.

    Makoko and Iwaya are particularly deprived in areas like schooling, sanitation and nutrition. This explains their higher poverty levels compared to other communities.

    Makoko’s location along the coast, with its makeshift housing and poor infrastructure, adds to its vulnerability. Iwaya shares similar challenges in education and health services. These factors make both areas more deprived than other slums.

    Of the three broad poverty dimensions measured, education emerged with the highest deprivation across all communities. This highlighted the limited formal education among residents.

    Specifically, Makoko and Iwaya showed the highest deprivation in schooling. Despite some improvements, particularly in child enrolment, these communities are still marked by severe deprivation.

    The second dimension exhibiting severe deprivation was living standards. There were variations across different slums. Makoko and Iwaya had higher sanitation challenges.

    The third dimension in the severe deprivation category was health. Indicators included mortality and nutrition. They were high across many slums, contributing significantly to their multidimensional poverty indexes.

    Other communities, such as Amukoko (0.0312), showed better sanitation outcomes. On the other hand, electricity, flooring and cooking fuel indicators generally showed lower levels of deprivation, with most slums scoring around or below 0.03 in these categories.

    The prevalence of both serious and minor illnesses, coupled with insufficient medical care, contributed to high mortality rates.

    Poor sanitation could also be a factor in health issues. In Makoko and Iwaya, toilet facilities and waste management were poor, with waste often disposed of in waterways.

    Despite this, personal hygiene practices such as using clean water, soap and regular brushing were prevalent. This helped keep the sanitation index relatively low compared with other factors affecting health.

    Other slums had relatively better-organised waste collection systems and generally improved sanitation practices.

    What needs to be done

    Policymakers should prioritise education-focused initiatives. This should include improving access to quality schools, providing scholarships and setting up adult literacy programmes.

    The study also highlights challenges related to sanitation, especially in Makoko and Iwaya. There is a need for improved infrastructure in these areas, such as better sanitation facilities, waste management systems and access to clean water.

    Policies should focus on upgrading sanitation services to reduce health risks and improve living conditions.

    But the differences in poverty index across slums indicate varying levels of deprivation, suggesting that a one-size-fits-all approach will not be effective.

    Coastal slums like Makoko and Iwaya require more intensive interventions compared to slums not directly on coastal lines such as Amukoko.

    Policymakers should focus resources where they are most needed to have the greatest impact.

    Slums like Ilaje and Ijora Badia are close to the threshold of severe poverty. Policymakers need to take proactive measures to prevent these communities from falling into severe deprivation.

    Lastly, it is important to use data to identify priority areas and develop targeted interventions aimed at improving the quality of life for slum dwellers.

    Instead of relying on generalised approaches, the insights from this study can facilitate the design of specific policies that address the distinct needs of each community.

    Oluwaseyi Omowunmi Popogbe does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Poverty in Lagos isn’t just about money – here’s why – https://theconversation.com/poverty-in-lagos-isnt-just-about-money-heres-why-240847

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Cameroon after Paul Biya: poverty, uncertainty and a precarious succession battle

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By David E Kiwuwa, Associate Professor of International Studies, University of Nottingham

    Cameroon’s President Paul Biya is 91 years old. He is Africa’s oldest head of state and only one has served longer: President Teodoro Obiang Nguema of neighbouring Equatorial Guinea, who is 82 years old.

    Biya has been Cameroon’s president since 1982. Prior to that, he was prime minister from 1975.

    In recent weeks there has been growing speculation about the nonagenarian’s health. Some rumours even suggested that he had died. This led the Cameroonian government to issue a statement banning all reports about his health.

    These cycles of rumour have recurred whenever Biya has “gone missing” for extended periods of time. Before he arrived at Yaoundé’s international airport on 21 October, Biya was last seen in public on 8 September, when he attended a China-Africa forum in Beijing.

    Cameroon has known only two presidents since independence. For 60% of the country’s youth population, Biya is the only president they have known.



    Read more:
    Paul Biya has been Cameroon’s president for 40 years – and he might win office yet again

    The country finds itself in a precarious situation, uncertain about what will happen after Biya, who has ruled with an iron fist.

    Long term incumbencies don’t usually end well. Examples across the continent illustrate the high potential for political instability. The most vivid cases include Libya, Tunisia, Sudan, Gabon, Chad and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

    For me as an associate professor of international studies and researcher of regime transformation in Africa, Cameroon holds specific interest because of its regime resilience over the decades, when many in the region haven’t fared as well.

    My view is that Cameroon will, sooner rather than later, hit an inflection point post-Biya. Cameroon lacks strong constitutional guard rails, so succession is bound to be a very messy affair.

    Second, due to years of nepotism and tribalism institutionalised by Biya, there will be heightened potential for regional and ethnic tensions or conflict – even a general breakdown of law and order.

    Lastly, the military establishment could well make a move in the name of safeguarding the republic in times of uncertainty.

    The legacy

    Cameroon is endowed with abundant resources, including oil, gas and timber. It is also strategically located at a crossroads between west and central Africa on the Atlantic coast, an entry point to landlocked inner regions.

    Yet, according to the World Food Programme, over 55% of Cameroonians live in poverty and 37.7% are severely impoverished.

    The country’s infrastructure is in poor shape. While the Douala port has been modernised and railway regional linkages such as the Douala-Yaoundé lines have been expanded, road and railway infrastructure are barely functional.

    According to Transparency International, corruption is endemic in Cameroon. The country ranks 140th out of 180. This is despite official efforts to do something about it.

    In 1982 Biya capitalised on the anti-corruption sentiment that had been directed at the Amadou Ahidjo regime. Biya promised an anti-corruption “new deal”. Despite initial progress, by the early 1990s Cameroon was topping the world’s corruption tables.

    Critics suggest that Biya has also used his anti-corruption drive to keep his potential competitors in check.

    Nepotism and tribalism continue as Biya has established a patron-client state system. For example, the Beti people, who are the president’s ethnic kin, are reported to take up a disproportionate slice of senior positions in government and the military. Yet they account for a small percentage of the population.

    This has bred a kleptocratic system matched only by widespread communal resentment.



    Read more:
    Cameroon: how language plunged a country into deadly conflict with no end in sight

    There are other deep fissures in Cameroonian society. Socially, the country became a federated entity at independence in 1960. Two language groups – French and English speaking – came together for a United Republic of Cameroon.

    For a while this unity held. But increasing disenchantment with Biya’s regime, especially the marginalisation of the Anglophone south-west, developed into a rebellion in 2016. Thousands of people have been killed and tens of thousands displaced. It has also resulted in an increased crackdown by the central authority.

    Today, Cameroon is a fractured society with the south-west calling for increased autonomy and language justice and even self-determination. The creation of the Commission of Bilingualism and Multiculturalism and designating special status to the rebellious regions has done little to quell the crisis.

    Regional role

    Regionally, Cameroon has been a key partner for the US and France through tackling Boko Haram in the region. The country has been directly affected by the attacks of this Islamist group, which originated in Nigeria and has extended its reign of terror across the region.

    The anti-terror campaign has seen a close US-France-Cameroon relationship with military and intelligence strategic cooperation.

    Equally Biya can be lauded for having peacefully settled the Bakassi peninsula crisis with Nigeria, a territorial border dispute, thereby averting regional instability.

    There are not yet obvious signs that, after Biya, the Franco-Cameroon relationship would come under strain similar to other scenarios in the region.

    France has built a steady political and economic relationship with Cameroon, investing heavily in the region, providing political cover to the regime and entering into a defence pact.

    This relationship has also benefited many a political and military elite. Barring any monumental development, it is bound to be sustained in the post-Biya era.



    Read more:
    Cameroon spends 90% of Chinese development loans on its French region: this could deepen the country’s divisions

    Fractured political landscape

    Biya’s longevity at the helm of Cameroon politics is testament to his ability to mobilise all state resources, power and constitutional levers for his lifetime presidency. He has outmanoeuvred all political competitors.

    This has enabled him to avoid the fate of neighbouring countries such as Central African Republic, Niger, Chad and Gabon, where governments have been overthrown by military coups.

    In 1992 Biya agreed to a multiparty dispensation. But since then, he has engineered removal of term limits and he is on his seventh term of office.

    But in the evening of his years, and in the absence of a designated successor or an elite pact, there is a real possibility that various factions of the Biya regime such as that of Frank Biya, Ngoh Ngoh, Laurent Esso or even the military will jostle and fight for power.

    Without a political culture of constitutional constraint, instability seems inevitable. And the south-west rebellion might escalate its military and political pressure for better leverage with whoever comes to power post-Biya.

    Whether the next political leadership will be able to set a transformative agenda for socio-political reconciliation and national renewal will be dictated by their ability to strike a grand compromise.

    David E Kiwuwa does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Cameroon after Paul Biya: poverty, uncertainty and a precarious succession battle – https://theconversation.com/cameroon-after-paul-biya-poverty-uncertainty-and-a-precarious-succession-battle-241312

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How finance can be part of the solution to the world’s biodiversity crisis

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Emma O’Donnell, Research Assistant, Environmental Change Institute and PhD Candidate, Nature-based Solutions Initiative, University of Oxford

    Nature loss should be treated with the same urgency as climate change. NOBUHIRO ASADA/Shutterstock

    More than half of the world’s total GDP is at least moderately dependent on nature. Yet arguably, there is no economy (or life) without nature. A quarter of animal and planet species are now threatened, and 14 out of 18 key ecosystem services – including fertile soils to grow food, flood and disease control and regulation of air and water pollution – are in decline.

    These ecosystem services are essential and have no easy substitutes. Despite this, almost US$7 trillion (£5.4 trillion) per year is spent by governments and the private sector on subsidies and economic activities that have a negative impact on nature – including intensive agriculture and fossil-fuel subsidies. This compares to only US$200 billion that is spent on nature-based solutions (just a third of what is estimated to be needed).

    Although the biodiversity crisis has often been overshadowed by climate change on the global stage, the tide is turning. In 2022, the Kunming-Montreal global biodiversity framework was adopted with its overarching goal to halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030.

    At the end of October 2024, the signatories of the framework will again come together at the UN’s Cop16 biodiversity conference in Cali, Colombia, to negotiate the implementation of their targets. To make progress towards these goals, Cop16 aims to align finance with the framework; effectively ensuring finance is part of the solution rather than the problem.

    To do this, the flow of finance will need to be redirected. A central lever in this is the pricing of risk. Financial institutions face significant risk, both from the degradation of ecosystem services (physical risks) and the social responses to degradation, including regulation and changing consumer demand (transition risks). Yet these risks are not fully priced into financial decisions.

    On top of this, corporations do not disclose their nature-related risks, dependencies and impacts, making it difficult for financial institutions to understand the implications of their investments. Together, this means that finance continues to flow unhindered into riskier activities.

    Central banks are now starting to highlight risks from nature to financial institutions and to explore the areas where these risks manifest in the financial system.

    The financial risks are real

    Earlier this year, we published the first study of the seriousness of nature-related financial risks.

    We found that, for the UK, nature-related shocks could cause a 6% decline in GDP by 2030 under scenarios such as soil health decline or water scarcity putting pressure on global supply chains. And there could be a drop in GDP of more than 12% in the scenario of an antimicrobial resistance or pandemic shock, driven by increased human-wildlife interaction due to habitat loss and deforestation.

    These results are equal to or even greater than the UK’s 6% decrease in GDP after the 2008 financial crisis and 9.7% during the 2020 COVID lockdowns.

    We also found that nature-related financial risks were of a similar scale to climate-related risks. Nature loss and climate change occur in parallel, amplify and compound each other. As such, it is essential that solutions look to solve both challenges simultaneously. After all, what is the point of having a cooler planet that is no longer livable?

    Of its 23 targets for 2030, the GBF includes two goals that specifically address finance. Target 18 aims to reduce incentives for financial flows that damage nature by at least US$500 billion per year and scale up incentives for nature-positive financial flows. And target 19 aims to mobilise US$200 billion per year for restoring and protecting nature, including at least US$30 billion from international finance flowing from developed to developing countries. A further target, target 15, calls for the disclosure of nature-related risks, dependencies and impacts by firms.

    COP16 gets under way in Cali, Colombia.

    So, what do we need from Cop16 to pull the financial risk lever?

    First, there must be international recognition that the long-term, widespread and often irreversible risks of the biodiversity crisis are not being priced by the financial system, despite progress on the integration of climate risks. This can cause a buildup of systemic risks and lead to financial instability; as such, there must be a global consensus that central banks play a key role in taking proactive measures to manage this.

    Second, at the individual, corporate and financial institution level, firms must manage and disclose their nature-related financial risks, alongside their climate risks.

    Third, similar to transition finance for net zero, financial institutions must begin to engage actively with clients to explore opportunities to support their transition towards more nature-positive activities and reflect this within their transition plans.

    Securing financial resilience and nature and climate goals are synonymous; and all are essential for securing economic growth and sustainable development globally.

    Emma O’Donnell receives funding from the UK Natural Science Research Council.

    Jimena Alvarez receives funding from UK Natural Environment Research Council.

    Nicola Ranger receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council, Climate Arc and EU Horizon

    – ref. How finance can be part of the solution to the world’s biodiversity crisis – https://theconversation.com/how-finance-can-be-part-of-the-solution-to-the-worlds-biodiversity-crisis-241829

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Kim Jong-un sends North Korean troops to fight in Ukraine – here’s what this means for the war

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Ra Mason, Lecturer in International Relations and Japanese Foreign Policy, University of East Anglia

    It is still unclear how many North Korean soldiers will find their way onto the killing fields of eastern Ukraine. What is clear is that the drive to recruit fighting forces from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) is at least in part politically motivated. But is it also a tactical masterstroke that will boost the Russian war machine’s chances of a definitive victory?

    The political aspect appears straightforward. The use of foreign forces from an enemy of the United States demonstrates a clear show of opposition towards the Washington-led global order. It also deals a further blow to the myth that the Russian Federation is isolated, as an international pariah, in a world led by western powers.

    But despite boosting troop numbers, there are multiple problems with these would-be mercenaries from the far east joining Putin’s forces on the front line in Europe. North Korea is impoverished and authoritarian. This means its personnel are mostly poorly equipped, unmotivated and undernourished. Where and how they are deployed will, therefore, likely be critical.

    If sent into new theatres of war against state-of-the-art Nato-supplied weaponry, it could effectively mean waves of ill-prepared cannon fodder being thrown into the meat grinder of Donbas’ trenches. Most would surely be killed by FPV (first-person view) drones or western tank fire.

    Defections could well pose an additional risk. If commanded outside the immediate control of Korean officers in the field, some will doubtless view this as a chance to escape oppression and poverty in their homeland. Desertions en masse to the Ukrainian side might become a possibility. Even more so if identified and directed how to surrender by Ukrainian, or other, special forces on the ground.

    Considering these seemingly obvious flaws, it would be easy to assume the deliberate showcasing of training camps in eastern Russia for North Korean soldiers is little more than a political gimmick. One that is designed to strike fear into an already struggling Ukrainian army and poke its western backers in the eye. At the same time, there may be cause to think there is more to this move than pure politics.

    Rules of engagement

    The difference between supplying artillery shells for Russian guns and putting bodies on the line is stark.

    But this fundamental difference does not necessarily mean that there is no tactical value to the deployment of Korean forces on the battlefield. The key likely lies in where and how they are deployed.

    There is the immediate question of international law. Or, perhaps more importantly, how Nato countries might respond to further breaches of the established rules of engagement by Russian directed foreign forces. For sure, use of Korean mercenaries to fight in the Donbas region, which is recognised by western allies as Ukrainian territory, would constitute a gross violation.

    The response from Nato could be rapid and definitive, as it would effectively justify proportionate use of force, including foreign personnel, to counter any subsequent Russian advances. This would likely result in an own goal for Putin. Any initial advantage gained would quickly be lost as friends of Ukraine justifiably enter the fray to push back an illegal Moscow-Pyongyang alliance of aggression. Escalation thereafter would also be a serious and grave concern.

    Conversely, if deployed in a combination of technical and logistical roles, or primarily to defend Russian territory, the utility of additional manpower becomes more credible. Not least, it would seem legitimate from an international legal perspective for Russia to seek assistance from alliance partners in repelling Ukraine’s incursion into the Kursk region of southwestern Russia.

    This could deal a double blow to Kyiv. On the one hand it would likely supply sufficient personnel to rapidly finish off the already threadbare Ukrainian forces holding on to captured sovereign Russian territory. At the same time, Moscow’s own military machine would be able to focus its entire attention on the already growing advances being made along the Donbas front.

    Distraction from the end game

    North Korea’s influence on the international stage has grown since the start of the war in Ukraine as its massive stockpiles of ammunition proved significant in Russia’s attritional tactics. In that respect, the addition of foreign fighters may add a further factor in Moscow’s favour if skilfully deployed and directed.

    Ultimately, however, the limited dispatch of inexperienced Korean troops to a war zone in which they have no legal or moral basis to be sent is unlikely to prove decisive. As it stands, with or without the help of forces supplied by North Korea’s despotic leader, Kim Jong-Un, Russia’s brutal military advance looks set to grind on.

    In these regards, the arrival of North Koreans to Europe’s worst war for a generation is probably little more than another bizarre episode in this cruel conflict. The real concern is how authoritarian states such as Russia and North Korea can be transformed into something resembling civilised societies that might pursue more positive foreign policy pathways.

    Ra Mason does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Kim Jong-un sends North Korean troops to fight in Ukraine – here’s what this means for the war – https://theconversation.com/kim-jong-un-sends-north-korean-troops-to-fight-in-ukraine-heres-what-this-means-for-the-war-241876

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Chris Hoy reveals that he has terminal cancer – here’s how to spot early signs of prostate cancer

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Justin Stebbing, Professor of Biomedical Sciences, Anglia Ruskin University

    Sir Chris Hoy, an inspiration to so many of us, has just revealed he has terminal prostate cancer aged just 48 years old.

    It’s easy to assume that prostate cancer is a disease that only affects older men. But it can strike at any age, including younger and middle-aged men.

    Although the average age of diagnosis is 68, about one in ten new cases are in men under 55. In fact, doctors have noticed more cases in younger men in recent years. If you’re in your 40s or 50s, it’s worth knowing about the risks and signs of prostate cancer.

    When prostate cancer does occur in younger men, it tends to be more aggressive. If you’re diagnosed at a younger age, there’s a higher chance the cancer might be at a more advanced stage. This means it could be more dangerous than prostate cancer in older men. That’s why it’s crucial to catch it early if you can.

    There are several signs that could point to prostate cancer. People affected might notice that they’re going to the bathroom more often, especially at night. Some people can have trouble starting or stopping when they pee, or their urine flow might be weak or stop and start.

    Some men see blood in their urine or semen. Problems with erections, pain when you pee, or discomfort in your pelvic area are other possible signs.

    If you notice any of these, it’s a good idea to talk to your doctor. Remember, these symptoms can be caused by lots of other conditions too, including being part of normal ageing, but it’s always best to get them checked.

    Even if you don’t have symptoms, if you’re over 50, or over 45 with prostate cancer in your family, it’s worth having a chat with your doctor about prostate cancer screening. In this case, you might have heard of the PSA test. It’s a blood test that can help diagnose prostate problems, including cancer. But it’s not offered as a routine screening test for everyone.

    Like a lot of diagnostic tests, the PSA test isn’t perfect. It can miss some cancers, and sometimes it says there might be cancer when there isn’t. This can lead to unnecessary worry and more tests. Also, it can’t tell the difference between slow-growing cancers that might never cause problems and more aggressive ones that need treatment. That’s why doctors suggest discussing it before deciding to have the test.

    Sometimes there’s a genetic element to prostate cancers in younger people. There are genes that increase the risk of prostate cancer, and the same or similar genes increase the risk of other cancers like breast cancer.

    If there are lots of men in your family affected by prostate cancer, or male relatives with breast cancer or younger people affected, it is worth having genetic tests to understand your own risk.

    Sometimes people are even considered for a prostatectomy, which means a removal of one’s prostate, to decrease the risk of cancer occurring later on. In the future, these genetic tests will happen more and more, which is good news.

    Overdiagnosis

    One of the tricky things about prostate cancer screening is something called overdiagnosis. Many prostate cancers grow so slowly that they might never cause any problems. But once they’re found, men often want to treat them.

    This can lead to side-effects that affect quality of life, even though the cancer itself might never have been harmful. That’s why doctors are careful about how they approach screening and diagnosis.

    Some research suggests that just keeping an eye on things is better for elderly people, but this really isn’t the case for younger people.

    You might be wondering about other tests for prostate cancer. The digital rectal exam, where a doctor checks your prostate with a gloved finger, used to be a common part of screening. These days, it’s not always considered necessary, especially if other tests like magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans are available.

    MRI scans where you typically go in a narrow tube are being used more and more to look for prostate cancer. They can help find suspicious areas and guide biopsies if needed.

    The first inkling Hoy had that something was wrong was when he developed shoulder pain, meaning the cancer had already spread. We do see this as oncologists, but in most cases, it’s localised to the prostate gland in the pelvis.

    If you are diagnosed with prostate cancer, there are an increasing number of treatment options available. These might include keeping a close eye on slow-growing cancers without immediate treatment, surgery to remove the prostate, radiation therapy, hormone therapy, or chemotherapy for advanced cases.

    We also have targeted drugs taken as tablets now too. The best choice depends on things like your age, how advanced the cancer is, and your overall health.

    You might have heard that more men die with prostate cancer than from it. While this is true, it doesn’t mean you should ignore any concerns you have. Early detection and treatment can be crucial, especially for more aggressive cancers.

    If you’re worried about any symptoms or about your risk of prostate cancer, don’t hesitate to talk to your doctor. Being proactive about your health is important. Remember, many men diagnosed with prostate cancer go on to live long, full lives, especially when it’s caught early.

    Justin Stebbing does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Chris Hoy reveals that he has terminal cancer – here’s how to spot early signs of prostate cancer – https://theconversation.com/chris-hoy-reveals-that-he-has-terminal-cancer-heres-how-to-spot-early-signs-of-prostate-cancer-241851

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Standing desks are bad for your health – new study

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Jack McNamara, Senior Lecturer in Clinical Exercise Physiology, University of East London

    The global market for standing desks is booming, projected to reach US$12.6 billion by 2032 (£9.7 billion). These desks have been hailed as a simple fix for the health risks associated with sitting all day. However, recent research suggests that standing might not be the health booster many hoped for.

    A new study from Australia involving over 83,000 participants found that prolonged standing may not improve heart health and could even increase the risk of certain circulatory problems.

    Researchers discovered that standing for extended periods did not reduce the risk of heart disease and stroke. In fact, spending too much time either sitting or standing was linked to a higher risk of problems such as varicose veins and feeling dizzy or lightheaded when you stand up.

    The phrase “sitting is the new smoking” has become popular in the past decade, highlighting the dangers of a sedentary lifestyle. Prolonged sitting has been associated with obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular diseases. In response, standing desks emerged as a trendy solution, offering a way to reduce sitting time without drastically changing daily routines.

    But was there solid evidence to support the benefits of standing desks?

    Much of the enthusiasm was based on limited studies that didn’t comprehensively assess long-term health consequences. This gap in knowledge prompted researchers to investigate further.

    In the new study, participants wore devices to track their sitting, standing and physical activity over several years. This objective measurement provided accurate data, reducing the inaccuracies often found in self-reported information. The researchers found that sitting for more than ten hours a day was associated with a higher risk of heart disease and stroke.

    However, simply standing more didn’t mitigate this risk. In fact, standing for extended periods was linked to an increased risk of circulatory problems.

    Prolonged standing can cause blood to pool in the legs, leading to conditions such as varicose veins.

    The study’s large sample size and use of objective data strengthen the reliability of these findings. However, as an observational study, it cannot definitively establish cause and effect. Also, the average age of participants was around 61 years, which may limit how these results apply to younger people.

    Standing for long periods can increase the risk of varicose veins.
    sutulastock/Shutterstock

    Movement is key

    These findings suggest that simply swapping sitting for standing isn’t a perfect solution. Our bodies respond better to regular movement rather than static positions, whether that’s sitting or standing.

    Incorporating short walks, stretching or light exercises throughout the day can interrupt long periods of inactivity and offer significant health benefits.

    Workplace interventions promoting movement have shown promise. Researchers found that office workers who reduced their sitting time by adding periods of standing and light activity saw improvements in blood sugar levels and other health markers.

    Another study indicated that alternating between sitting and standing, combined with brief walks, was more effective for health than standing alone.

    Sit-stand desks, designed to facilitate easy position changes, offer a promising solution. They promote frequent posture changes and can alleviate discomfort associated with prolonged static positions. Some models even feature reminders to encourage regular movement, integrating activity into the workday.

    Getting more physical activity into our lives doesn’t have to be complex. Simple actions such as taking the stairs, walking to a colleague instead of emailing, or standing during phone calls can all contribute. Setting a timer to remind you to move every 30 minutes can help break up long periods of sitting or standing, empowering you to take control of your health.

    Movement is key. Standing all day isn’t necessarily better than sitting – both have drawbacks when overdone. By focusing on regular physical activity and varying our positions, we can better address the health challenges posed by sedentary lifestyles. Small changes, such as taking short active breaks or incorporating stretching exercises, can make a significant difference.

    Ultimately, while standing desks offer an alternative to prolonged sitting, they shouldn’t be seen as a complete solution. Embracing a more active lifestyle, both in and out of the office, is likely to yield the greatest health benefits. It’s not just about standing or sitting; it’s about moving more and sitting less.

    Jack McNamara does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Standing desks are bad for your health – new study – https://theconversation.com/standing-desks-are-bad-for-your-health-new-study-241687

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: YouTube is limiting recommendations of weight and fitness videos to teenagers – but more wide-ranging change is needed

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Danielle Paddock, Research Associate in the Centre for Behavioural Science and Applied Psychology (CeBSAP), Sheffield Hallam University

    YouTube is restricting teenagers’ exposure to fitness and weight-related videos to protect their wellbeing. This means that the platform’s algorithm will no longer make repeated recommendations of content that focuses on achieving specific fitness levels or body weights, or extols particular physical features.

    This could include gym routines that involve pursuing a certain look, and videos that idealise beauty features – such as “how to get a chiselled jawline”. At the same time, Youtube is placing restrictions on recommending content “displaying social aggression and intimidation” for under-18s.

    But these changes do not stop teens searching for and viewing such content in the first place – and may not be enough to make a meaningful change.

    Social media platforms are a fundamental part of youth culture. They hold the power to shape perceptions about appearance, health, fitness and lifestyle. Their vast repository of appearance-related videos can place great pressure on young people, bombarding them with all kinds of content that promotes unrealistic and often unachievable body standards.

    The role of the algorithm

    Research has found that exposure to appearance-related content on social media is linked to increased body dissatisfaction and increased engagement in more restrictive eating behaviour.

    Such content can be difficult to escape when algorithms are built to keep pushing it on users, even if young people are actively seeking more positive, less damaging content. It can create a situation where teenagers’ curiosity can quickly spiral into a dangerous obsession – with concerning consequences.

    For a teenager who watches their favourite influencer’s “day at the gym” video, for instance, the algorithm will then deliver more and more fitness and weight-related content. From watching this one video, the algorithmic “rabbit hole” opens up. For young impressionable teenagers, this has the power to exacerbate harmful behaviour and consequences.

    YouTube’s curb on recommending this content goes some way to mitigating the power of the algorithm. But even with restrictions in place, there is still a huge range of fitness, beauty and weight-related content available on the platform that may perpetuate harmful body standards. The YouTube restrictions also won’t stop teenagers from being bombarded with this same content on other apps.

    Body image and social media

    Body dissatisfaction among teens is linked to depression, anxiety and eating disorders. Teenagers are at a critical developmental period where they are highly susceptible to social influences, so the content that they are exposed to on social media can heavily affect how they view themselves.

    The rise of social media fitness and beauty influencers and all the videos about strict exercise routines, “what I eat in a day” videos and beauty routines has gone hand in hand. Teenagers feel pressure to conform to the body ideals portrayed in this content, but these “ideals” are often practically unattainable for most to achieve.

    Fitness content proliferates on social media.
    fizkes/Shutterstock

    In reality, influencers often use a range of filters in their pictures and videos. These digitally altered images create a distorted view of appearance, contributing to increased body dissatisfaction for teenagers.

    More needs to be done to address the larger societal issues that fuel body image concerns among teenagers. This starts with education.

    If we give teenagers the knowledge and understanding about the way algorithms can affect what they see, and the risks associated with this, then they can feel a sense of empowerment and autonomy around their own safe social media use. Media literacy programmes have been found to improve body image among teenagers, equipping them with skills to critically engage with online content.

    YouTube, along with other platforms, could take a more active role in promoting body diversity. This could include elevating videos that challenge traditional beauty standards. The combination of powerful algorithms, societal pressures and the pervasive nature of social media means that a more holistic approach is necessary.

    If we are to protect teenagers from poor body image and build greater online resilience, then it will require not only stricter algorithmic regulations. Media literacy, education and a cultural shift toward a body positive movement is needed.

    Danielle Paddock is affiliated with the British Psychological Society.

    – ref. YouTube is limiting recommendations of weight and fitness videos to teenagers – but more wide-ranging change is needed – https://theconversation.com/youtube-is-limiting-recommendations-of-weight-and-fitness-videos-to-teenagers-but-more-wide-ranging-change-is-needed-238954

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How the #MeToo movement has shaped how women write crime fiction

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alison Taft, Course Director of Creative Writing, Leeds Beckett University

    It’s seven years since #MeToo became a viral phenomenon. The social media campaign against sexual harassment and assault encouraged survivors to share their stories. But has anything changed in the way crime fiction is written as a result?

    There are now novels that specifically reference the #MeToo movement, such as Complicit by Winnie M Li, The List by Yomi Adegoke and This Is Pleasure by Mary Gaitskill. Between them, they deal with the consequences of sex crimes for a set of main characters that include: a female film producer wondering if she could have done more to prevent the actions of the male predator (Complicit), a falsely accused man (The List) and the female friend of a man seemingly unaware his behaviour could be experienced as offensive (This is Pleasure).

    These novels, all written by women, invite readers to consider differing perspectives in the aftermath of what appeared as a tsunami of offences. But by shifting the focus away from the perpetrators of the crimes they do little to challenge what some women activists identify as a rape culture.

    In 2018, in response to the #MeToo movement, screenwriter Bridget Lawless launched the Staunch Prize. It was to be “awarded to the author of a novel in the thriller genre in which no woman is beaten, stalked, sexually exploited, raped or murdered”. She argued that the majority of crime thrillers focus on the least common forms of violence against women (the stalker, the serial killer, the unknown assailant) giving readers a false idea of what a rapist looks like and so making it more difficult to convict real offenders. “Well over 90% of rapes and murders of women are by men known to them,” she explained, “often a former or current partner”.

    However, the Staunch Prize met with criticism. Novelist Sophie Hannah argued that rather than pretend these crimes don’t exist, writers should challenge the prejudices that exist within the way they are written about. Val McDermid meanwhile (widely credited as one of few female crime writers who attracts male readers) said she’d stop writing stories about violence against women when men stop committing the crimes.

    It is important to tell these stories, and to do so in ways that challenge the fetishisation of sex crimes. However, creating realistic yet empowering stories can be something of a challenge.

    #MeToo and crime tropes

    When Sarah Bailey published her novel Into The Night (2019), which features a female character who experiences sexual harassment, she claims her US editors argued “that because of #MeToo and #TimesUp, readers would desire a more empowering narrative, a ‘happy ending’ so to speak, where justice was served and the bad guy got his comeuppance”. Bailey wasn’t convinced. She argued that manufacturing happy endings for fictional women might not offer much support to real women on the receiving end of these crimes.

    Gail Simone, creator of the website Women in Refrigerators, has been working to highlight some of the more damaging tropes found within crime fiction. She brought attention to the concept of “fridging” – a plot device where violence against women is used to motivate the (usually male) protagonist into action. In these stories, women appear with no other purpose than to be a victim.

    These tropes, Simone argues, “both reflect and perpetuate the idea that women don’t have any agency over their own lives in the real world”.

    The Change by Kirsten Miller (2022) challenges this lack of agency. The novel features three peri-menopausal characters intent on exposing a Jeffrey Epstein-inspired network of abusers.

    The feminist thriller is unflinching in laying the blame squarely where it belongs. It does also, perhaps to avoid the accusation of bias, include a female antagonist who may, or may not, be based upon Ghislaine Maxwell (currently serving a 20-year prison sentence after being found guilty of child sex trafficking and other offences connected to Epstein). The Change serves as a call to action to women, particularly older women, to play their part in bringing perpetrators to justice.

    The ongoing mass rape trial of Dominique Pelicot in France has perhaps provided the world with a shock dose of reality. Pelicot admitted repeatedly drugging his wife, Gisèle and inviting strangers to rape her. The court has heard statements, such as “there is rape, and then there’s rape” (a lawyer for six of the accused); “she did not deserve this” (Pelicot); and “women do not belong to men, I hope that future generations will learn that” (one of the accused).

    It’s clear that writers are working to explore the issues the #MeToo movement raised. But statements like this show that, despite these efforts, the social narrative around sex-crime remains depressingly unchanged.


    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Alison Taft does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How the #MeToo movement has shaped how women write crime fiction – https://theconversation.com/how-the-metoo-movement-has-shaped-how-women-write-crime-fiction-239905

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: US election 2024: getting out the youth vote will be crucial in a knife-edge contest

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James Sloam, Professor of Politics, Royal Holloway University of London

    The US presidential election is on a knife edge. The polls are predicting 50/50 races in several states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada.

    The results in these states are likely to be crucial in deciding whether it is the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, or her Republican rival, Donald Trump, who will be sitting in the White House come January 2025. The youth vote will play a key role in determining victory in such a tight race.

    Younger voters in the US have leaned heavily towards the Democratic party in recent presidential elections. But this is a relatively new phenomenon. In 2000, young Americans aged 18 to 30 voted for George Bush and Al Gore at an almost identical rate to the general population, favouring Democrat Gore by 48% to 47%.

    The swell in youth support for the Democrats only began with Barack Obama in 2008, when he defeated John McCain by two to one in this demographic (66% to 32%). This was followed by a slightly smaller – albeit still substantial – margin of victory for Obama over Mitt Romney (60% to 37%) in 2012. The current US president, Joe Biden, enjoyed a similar advantage over Trump among young voters in 2020 (61% to 36%).

    Youth support for the Democrats has proved to be particularly strong among young women, and Latino and black voters who are opposed to the illiberalism of Trump’s Republican party. Polls suggest that Biden secured an estimated 67%, 69% and 89% of the vote respectively from these groups four years ago.

    Young women also drove a surge in youth participation in the 2022 midterms in reaction to a Supreme Court ruling that now allows states to deny women the right to abortion. This contributed to results that were much better than expected for the Democrats in Congress.

    Younger voters in the US have leaned heavily towards Democratic party candidates in recent presidential elections.
    James Sloam, CC BY-NC-ND

    Youth turnout in the US is low by international standards. But in the 2020 presidential election – a highly polarised race between Biden and Trump – a record half of young Americans turned out to vote. This compared to around two-thirds of the registered electorate, which was itself the highest rate of turnout for over a century.

    On the surface, Harris’s presidential bid might have been expected to boost youth support and participation further. She is a woman of mixed heritage with socially progressive views, who is generally seen as likeable and is the antithesis of Trump.

    And younger voters do, indeed, prefer Harris to Trump, but by an unconvincing margin, compared with support for previous Democratic candidates. In a recent opinion poll conducted by YouGov and the Economist, 55% of young people stated that they would vote for Harris compared to 39% for Trump.

    This speaks of a broader disillusionment with electoral politics among young Americans. There is some disaffection over the Biden administration’s lack of action over issues such as climate change, gun control and the war in Gaza.

    But, most importantly in this election, there is a sense that neither party has attended to the economic hardships that have left young Americans feeling that they are unlikely to be better off than their parents’ generation.

    After being buffeted by high inflation, today’s young people (gen Z) are spending over 30% more on housing, almost 50% more on health insurance, and twice as much on car insurance than millennials.

    The 2016 presidential race showed that young people in the US are much more supportive of Bernie Sanders’ more radical version of the Democratic party than has been offered by Clinton, Biden and Harris – the more centrists candidates who have made it through to become the Democratic candidate in the past three elections. In the 2016 primaries, more young Americans voted for Sanders than for Clinton and Trump put together.

    Increasing youth turnout

    The lack of enthusiasm for establishment Democratic party candidates means that efforts to bring out the youth vote are of central importance. This is particularly true in the key states Harris needs to win to become president.

    In the 2020 election, voter registration drives among young people played a key role in Democratic wins in incredibly tight state races. In Georgia, for example, it is widely accepted that the large increase in youth turnout flipped the state for Biden in a race that came down to just 12,000 votes.

    Last month, I spent time in Philadelphia, a city at the heart of Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is the most important swing state in the US, with 19 of the country’s 538 electoral college votes. When I was there, I spoke to young people and a leader of PA Youth Vote, a bipartisan initiative set up to improve youth voter registration and turnout in the state.

    PA Youth Vote had a clear understanding that, to increase youth turnout, they need to focus on making young people aware of how politics and voting matters for their everyday lives, and how they can have an impact on the issues they care about in their local areas by engaging with local officials and the democratic process.

    The aim of the initiative is to meet “the youth where they are, going to their schools, their neighbourhoods and their spaces” to give young people a positive reason to go out and vote.

    The Harris campaign – and US politics in general – can learn a lot from these grassroots movements. Their efforts to make politics matter for young Americans have the potential to increase youth participation.

    The success of these bipartisan efforts to bring out the youth vote will undoubtedly be critical to the presidential race, given the preference of young people for Harris over Trump. But it is critical for American democracy that politicians engage with young people on the issues they care about, such as education, crime, policing and poverty, all the time – and not just when asking for votes.

    On returning to the airport on the way back from Pennsylvania, I was speaking to the young African-American man who was driving my taxi. He believed that Trump was a racist, but also that neither party would do anything for him and his community. In his view, there was no point in voting, even in a key marginal state.

    This highlights the lack of proper discussion in the presidential race about how persistent economic inequalities are undermining American democracy in a very material sense for individual young people.

    James Sloam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. US election 2024: getting out the youth vote will be crucial in a knife-edge contest – https://theconversation.com/us-election-2024-getting-out-the-youth-vote-will-be-crucial-in-a-knife-edge-contest-240500

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Breast cancer: why it’s difficult to treat and what new approaches are on the horizon

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Anna-Mart Engelbrecht, Professor in physiological sciences, Stellenbosch University

    Breast cancer is the number one cancer among women: more than 2 million cases were diagnosed worldwide in 2022. It is also particularly challenging to treat. Physiologist Anna-Mart Engelbrecht, who heads the Cancer Research Group at Stellenbosch University, explains why this is so and how precision medicine could help.

    How do tumours work?

    Normally, cell growth, cell division and cell death are tightly regulated processes. But mutations in a cell’s DNA can disrupt this regulation, leading to abnormal cell proliferation, forming tumours.

    Tumours can be benign (non-cancerous) or malignant (cancerous). Malignant tumours are dangerous because they invade surrounding tissues and can metastasize (spread) to other body parts, such as bones, liver or lungs.

    Cancer cells can evade the immune system, create their own blood supply (angiogenesis), and adapt to survive under different conditions, such as low oxygen or treatment pressure.

    Only 5%-10% of all cancers arise from germline (inherited) mutations, which are present in all cells of the body from birth, predisposing the individual to developing cancer.

    Most cancers are preventable through a healthy lifestyle and regular exercise.

    What are the different types of tumours?

    For breast cancer, the tumours can be classified into types:

    Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS): Non-invasive cancer (meaning it has not invaded the underlying tissue beneath the epithelial cells, and abnormal cells are confined only to the milk ducts.

    Invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC): The most common type, where cancer cells break through the duct walls (the cells lining the ducts become cancerous) and invade surrounding breast tissue.

    Invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC): Begins in the milk-producing lobules and invades nearby tissue. (The lobules are the part of the breast which produce milk. They are anatomically different from the ducts, which transport the milk to the nipples.)

    Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC): The breast tissue lacks estrogen receptors, progesterone receptors, and HER2 protein receptors that control how cells grow and divide. Triple-negative breast cancer is often more aggressive and more challenging to treat.

    HER2-positive breast cancer: Overexpression of the HER2 protein, which promotes cancer cell growth.

    Hormone receptor-positive breast cancer: Cancer that grows in response to hormones like estrogen or progesterone.

    What makes breast cancer so difficult to treat?

    Breast cancer is particularly challenging to treat because there are so many subtypes with unique genetic and molecular characteristics.

    These variations mean that a treatment effective for one subtype might not work for another. The approach has to be tailored for each patient’s breast cancer.

    Another challenge is the tumour microenvironment. Cancer cells “hijack” the normal cells in this microenvironment to sustain cell growth.

    The tumour microenvironment shapes tumour behaviour. Certain cells in this environment can shield cancer cells from therapies, making treatment less effective.

    Drug resistance further complicates treatment. Over time, breast cancer cells can adapt and develop resistance to chemotherapy, hormonal treatments and targeted therapies.

    This adaptation can involve genetic mutations or the use of alternative signalling pathways that allow the cancer cells to continue growing despite treatment efforts.

    Metastasis, or the spread of cancer to other organs, is another major hurdle. Metastatic cells often behave differently from those in the primary tumour. This is true for all cancers.

    Lastly, breast cancer cells sometimes escape detection by the immune system. Usually, the immune system would recognise and attack abnormal cells. But some breast cancer cells can disguise themselves or suppress the immune response.

    This makes immunotherapy less effective. Unlike traditional therapies such as chemotherapy, immunotherapy enhances the immune system’s natural ability to fight cancer.

    Immunotherapy has shown success in treating cancers like melanoma, non-small cell lung cancer, kidney cancer and certain lymphomas, particularly those with a high number of genetic mutations that make them more visible to the immune system.

    But immunotherapy is not universally effective. Response rates can vary greatly between patients, and side effects can be severe.

    Breast cancer tends to have fewer genetic changes for the immune system to recognise as foreign.

    How would precision medicine make a difference?

    Precision medicine takes into account the genes, environment, and lifestyle of each person and tailors treatments to a tumour’s genetic and molecular characteristics.

    It enables targeted therapies that improve efficacy and reduce unnecessary side effects.

    Ongoing monitoring through techniques like liquid biopsies (for example a blood test) allows treatment strategies to be adapted as the tumour evolves, and identifying genetic predispositions aids in early detection and prevention.

    Precision medicine has transformed cancer care, particularly in cancers like breast, lung, and melanoma, where targeted therapies guided by genetic profiling are now routine for patients who can afford it.

    Research and clinical trials continue to expand the reach of precision medicine, promising more effective, individualised treatments for a broader range of patients in the future.

    Anna-Mart Engelbrecht receives funding from the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC), National Research Foundation (NRF) and CANSA. SAMRC and NRF currently, CANSA previously. I am director and shareholder of two Stellenbosch University start-up companies, BIOCODE and PHYENTI.

    – ref. Breast cancer: why it’s difficult to treat and what new approaches are on the horizon – https://theconversation.com/breast-cancer-why-its-difficult-to-treat-and-what-new-approaches-are-on-the-horizon-241690

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: War and the supernatural: former Congolese soldiers recall the ritual practices used to prepare for battle

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Dostin Lakika, Research Associate, University of the Witwatersrand

    War takes a toll on soldiers’ bodies and minds. To prepare for battle, soldiers are taken through various forms of training. Part of this training aims to strip candidates of their civilian values and inculcate military culture.

    While armies have access to an array of contemporary strategies and weaponry during training, one element isn’t often discussed: the rituals incorporated in training and those performed before engaging in warfare.

    Rituals include the magico-religious practices performed for various purposes, such as seeking blessing, power or protection or even imbibing military customs. Rituals or ceremonies are believed to bestow specific abilities upon individuals and shape their behaviours.

    War rituals aren’t exclusive to Africa. Many armed forces all over the world perform them. A study of rituals in the American military, for instance, found that these ceremonies help soldiers cope with trauma, loss and moral challenges during conflict.

    As a scholar focused on the memories of war and violence experienced by former soldiers, I set out to study the role rituals play in shaping soldiers’ identities, preparation for war and coping with war’s realities in battle and after.

    My findings suggest that rituals can function as a source of strength for soldiers. They instil a sense of confidence and security, as initiates feel encompassed by supernatural power. Additionally, these rituals enhance team unity, and reinforce discipline and loyalty to commanding officers.

    My study highlights the integration of rituals into military tactics, and their influence on soldiers’ lives amid stress and uncertainty on the battlefield. I argue that while the effectiveness of an army relies on the quality of its training and equipment, rituals can significantly influence the mindset of combatants.

    The study

    I interviewed 21 former Congolese soldiers from the Zairean Armed Forces (now known as the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of Congo, following the country’s renaming in May 1997) to gather data on their military experiences. These respondents served as the primary sources of information regarding the use of rituals.

    A retrospective study like this raises concerns about potential memory lapses. Former soldiers reflecting on their army experiences may struggle to recall certain aspects due to the passage of time. However, research suggests that significant events are remembered more persistently, implying that military rituals can be recalled accurately.

    I chose soldiers from the Zairean Armed Forces for two reasons. First, many soldiers left the national army and fled the country to South Africa after Laurent-Desiré Kabila overthrew Mobutu Sese Seko in 1997. Secondly, despite being plagued by corruption and mismanagement, Mobutu’s army was widely regarded as disciplined and powerful.

    Consequently, participants were more willing to discuss their military experiences as former members of the national defence forces. The respondents are now living in various Johannesburg suburbs.

    The findings

    I analysed the data I collected to identify patterns and extract common themes. I found that rituals involved the perceived creation of material shields or the acquisition of supernatural powers. They were aimed at offering a sense of protection of the body. Rituals also provided a mystical dimension, notably through the ceremonial treatment of uniforms.

    The overarching aim of rituals was to disconnect soldiers from civilian life and cultivate a specific form of masculinity aligned with military objectives. This helped foster camaraderie, establish strong connections among troops and contributed to the maintenance of discipline.

    Respondents in my study said initiation rituals focused on training and indoctrination to build a military identity centred on sacrifice and endurance for the nation. Before recruits donned military uniforms, for instance, they underwent rituals to consecrate their bodies to the army. One respondent, Makemba, explained:

    A soldier is not afraid of death; a true soldier can’t be afraid of death, I tell you. Because you live with death, you eat with death, and you clothe death … military uniforms are taken to cemetery where they spend two or three days before you wear them to tell you that you are death’s friend; you are brother of those who are dead, and you and those who are dead are the same.

    This graveyard ritual symbolised the soldiers’ connection with the deceased and transformed their individual identities into a collective body.

    To reinforce discipline, respondents said, they were required to utter specific words before entering someone’s field as a form of confession and permission. This, they said, would shield soldiers from negative impulses, such as using belongings without consent. The DRC army has a notorious reputation for exploiting civilians to supplement meagre salaries. Observing discipline was, therefore, considered essential for personal protection and the success of military operations.

    Additionally, before being deployed for war, respondents said soldiers participated in various religious practices, and received blessings along with religious items. These magico-religious rituals served to provide a sense of protection from enemy attacks. These religious ceremonies, respondents said, provided a measure of solace and self-confidence before combat. As Lokole explained it:

    You know, before joining the army I was an athlete and already knew something about power and protection because I had to protect myself against my opponents. But I joined the army, I was given leopard’s bones and water in which the bones were kept. When I had to go to the battlefield, I washed my face, hands, and feet with that sacred water. The bones were strung together on a thread, which I was instructed to fasten around my waist. This was the source of power and protection for me, and I can tell you, I survived many deadly dangers because I had these powers.

    Respondents believed that these rituals proved effective while on the frontlines. In his account, Amani said:

    Many of our colleagues found themselves face to face with the enemy who fired them at point-blank range but the bullets only passed through the clothes they were wearing without touching them. They returned with military uniform pierced by bullets, but they themselves were unharmed. Rituals were very protective. We witnessed many cases like this.

    The effectiveness of these rituals, respondents believed, was contingent on strict adherence to them. Failure to do so, they said, could lead to fatalities. Soldiers also combined traditional beliefs with Christian faith to cope with battlefield challenges despite debates over the compatibility of these belief systems.

    Why it matters

    The data collected from former Congolese soldiers indicates that they believed their protection in battle was dependent on the quality of the weapons, as well as magico-religious resources. This indicates that rituals can play a key psychological role in preparing soldiers for war, fostering strength, cohesion and discipline. Their importance in the armed forces shouldn’t be underestimated.

    Dostin Lakika does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. War and the supernatural: former Congolese soldiers recall the ritual practices used to prepare for battle – https://theconversation.com/war-and-the-supernatural-former-congolese-soldiers-recall-the-ritual-practices-used-to-prepare-for-battle-239967

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Civilian support for military coups isn’t a bug – it’s a feature

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Salah Ben Hammou, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Rice University

    Members of the Malian junta wave as civilians gather to celebrate the overthrow of the president on Aug. 21, 2020. AP Photo/File

    In September 2024, authorities in Benin detained the country’s former sports minister and a prominent businessman for allegedly plotting a coup against the West African nation’s president, Patrice Talon. Had a putsch materialized, Benin would have joined a growing list of African countries to have experienced a military coup over the past four years.

    Dubbed an “epidemic of coup d’états” by United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, the resurgence of military takeovers has left many observers perplexed. For one, the frequency of coups worldwide had reached historic lows prior to 2020.

    But perhaps even more puzzling is that several of the recent military coups – such as those in Mali, Burkina Faso and Guinea – have been accompanied by significant civilian support. Indeed, while various commentaries or news reports have treated civilian support as an exceptional feature of this recent coup wave, these perspectives rely on a common misunderstanding.

    As I’ve observed over the course of my research on the politics of military coups, civilian support is actually a common, if not critical, part of coup politics, and far from unique to this recent resurgence of military takeovers.

    How common are civilian-supported coups?

    In the popular imagination of a military coup, power-hungry soldiers command tanks down a capital’s streets to seize authority from the political leadership. In this vision, civilians are often passive actors or otherwise assumed to be the opponents of coups. Yet such a setting is belied by numerous examples, both recent and throughout history.

    In West Africa’s Niger, for example, the M62 movement – a coalition of civil society organizations – gathered its members on the streets to support the coup in July 2023, outnumbering prior protests calling for the reinstatement of President Mohamed Bazoum. In neighboring Mali, the M5-RFP protest movement served a similar role in the aftermath of the country’s 2020 coup – although fissures in its relationship with the junta have since surfaced.

    Even Benin’s thwarted plot had a civilian dimension. Its alleged masterminds, the sports minister and prominent businessman who were said to have funded the planned coup, were not soldiers but part of the governing bureaucracy or elite civil society.

    To see how common such cases are, I collected data on civilian support and involvement in all successful military coups since 1950. Defining coups as “successful” if the soldiers manage to stay in power for at least seven days, that gave me 242 cases over a period of nearly 75 years to analyze, spanning different regions like Latin America, sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.

    Out of the 242 episodes, 189 coups – or nearly 80% – saw some type of civilian support, either in the takeover’s instigation or in the later consolidation of power.

    Coups without any sign of civilian support were generally those that saw a military leader ousted by other members of the ruling junta – contexts where soldiers already dominated the political landscape.

    Breaking down the numbers over time, civilian-supported coups represented the lion’s share in each decade, even as the overall frequency of coups ebbed by the 1990s with the end of the Cold War.

    But in the past two decades, virtually every successful coup has been associated with some level of support outside the military. So while civilian support might not be unique to recent cases, there is evidence that it has become a more common fixture of military coups – at least among the successful ones.

    Of course, these stats do not include failed coups or thwarted conspiracies. But the failed attempts to instigate a coup in Benin – or, for that matter, in Brazil in January 2023 – suggest that these numbers might underestimate the frequency of civilian support for, and involvement in, coups.

    How civilians support coups

    In general, civilian support for coups can manifest in different ways. But in a recent study, I identified two broad patterns: instigation and consolidation.

    Instigation, by default, occurs in the pre-coup stage and involves civilians taking action to spark a coup attempt.

    Protests and insurrections in pursuit of a military coup are common methods of instigation. For example, early in 2023, supporters of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro seized the National Congress after weeks of publicly calling on the military to stop President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s inauguration. While their efforts ultimately failed to produce a coup, they are illustrative of the civilian dynamic.

    In late 2021, disgruntled members of Sudan’s transitional government organized protests in Khartoum, the capital, calling for the military’s intervention. The military answered days later by removing Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok from power.

    Instigation can also involve more targeted actions. For instance, the alleged Benin coup plot involved targeting specific members of the security services with bribes in exchange for their participation. In Brazil, recent court documents implicated Bolsonaro himself in coordinating a coup plot and attempting to ensure the participation of top military leaders.

    In other cases, political parties developed secret cells in the armed forces to later give the go-ahead for a coup – like in Bolivia in 1952, Iraq in 1963, Afghanistan in 1978 and Sudan in 1989.

    Consolidation, on the other hand, involves actions taken during and in the immediate aftermath of a coup.

    This could include actions like taking up arms alongside soldiers during a military takeover, organizing pro-coup protests or assuming important governing tasks alongside a new junta. Here, civilians seek to ensure a coup succeeds and its objectives take root – even against domestic and international opposition.

    Among the recent West African cases, civilians have especially worked to consolidate coups against international opposition. For example, after the Economic Community of West African States threatened military intervention to reverse Niger’s coup in 2023, M62 and other civilian-led protest groups rallied to support the coupists. Thousands also enlisted in the Volunteers for the Defense of Niger, a pro-junta civilian militia created to combat international intervention against the coupists.

    Why civilian coup support matters

    Soldiers are unlikely to even attempt a coup without confidence that at least some civilians will back their efforts.

    Portraying civilian support for military takeovers as exceptional thus misses a critical component of coup politics. And this misconception benefits coupists, who can use civilian allies to present their actions as legitimate or even revolutionary, which is what happened in Egypt in 2013.

    Coupists can also retain political influence after stepping aside by ensuring that their civilian supporters secure power.

    Military coups also do not occur in a vacuum. A proper focus on the civilian element of coup politics allows researchers and international observers to better contextualize military takeovers in broader social struggles for the state.

    This could lead to greater engagement with the issue of what kinds of civilian segments are instigating and consolidating coups. Are they close to the targeted leader such as in Benin’s alleged plot? Or are they members of the political opposition, like in Niger and Mali?

    These nuances should be front and center to researchers, policymakers and diplomats as they seek to understand – and mitigate – sudden and often destabilizing takeovers of a state.

    Salah Ben Hammou has received funding from the United States Institute of Peace and Minerva Research Initiative. He is a Postdoctoral Research Associate at Rice University’s Baker Institute of Public Policy.

    – ref. Civilian support for military coups isn’t a bug – it’s a feature – https://theconversation.com/civilian-support-for-military-coups-isnt-a-bug-its-a-feature-240877

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Victorian ghost photographs amused viewers with spooky thrills

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Andrea Kaston Tange, Professor of English, Macalester College

    ‘The Haunted Lane,’ a stereoscope card from L.M. Melander & Bro., 1875.
     Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division.

    October has long been associated with ghosts – from ancient Celtic festivals to ward off restless spirits after harvest time to the modern standby of using an old sheet to make a last-minute Halloween costume. In the middle of the 19th century, however, popular portrayals of ghosts became a year-round staple, in part because photographers discovered that they could depict them.

    The first ghost photographs were accidents. Early cameras required 30 seconds or more to take a photo. If someone wandered briefly into the shot, the resulting picture would contain their ghostly trace superimposed over substantial furniture, buildings or people who had held still for the full exposure.

    When shrewd photographers realized that the inconvenience of long exposure time could become an asset, detailed directions for creating these illusions proliferated. Photographers could cut ghost figures from transparent material and place them onto glass negatives or inside camera bodies. Or they could make real people half-transparent through tricks of double exposure.

    As early as 1856, experts gleefully noted that one could create images of ghosts “for the purpose of amusement.” Commercial photographers began producing this spectacular phenomenon for fun and profit and – as I have found while researching early portrait photography – thereby helped feed media fascination with all things ghostly.

    Turning accident into amusement

    Photographs became collectible amusements partly thanks to the midcentury invention of the stereoscope – a device that created three-dimensional optical illusions.

    Stereoscope cards contain two pictures of the same scene, photographed from slightly different angles. A viewer selects a card, inserts it and then presses the instrument to their face. The device isolates their eyes, so each sees only one picture. As the brain, trying to avoid double vision, merges these images into one, the result is a 3D effect.

    The Perfecscope from 1895 and a collection of stereoscopic cards.
    Andrea Kaston Tange, CC BY

    In the 1850s, reading aloud was the primary form of at-home entertainment. Daily newspapers ran no images, and the technology to reproduce photographs in books or periodicals was still 40 years away. But this affordable gizmo could bring the whole world into your living room.

    My archival research has turned up newspapers full of articles and ads promoting stereoscopic “marvels.” The London Stereoscopic Co. advertised “effects almost miraculous” and marketed the device for family entertainment. By 1856, a mere two years after the company’s founding, its catalog listed over 100,000 cards, including views of dramatic landscapes, exotic tourist destinations, famous portraits and card sets that told stories.

    Among these collections of sights unseen were plenty of ghostly images. “The Ghost in the Stereoscope,” a colorized card, shows two men in open-mouthed surprise at the sudden appearance of a ghost at their supper table. The title signals the jump scare that the image maker hoped would likewise amaze the viewer when the 3D ghost loomed before their very eyes.

    ‘The Ghost in the Stereoscope,’ a hand-colored card.
    Photographer unknown, 1856. London Stereoscopic Company. Met Museum collection

    On another card, “That’s Too Thin,” a ghost points an accusatory arm at one man sitting at a gaming table. The 1876 guide “How to Write Letters” lists “too thin” among its “slang words and phrases” to be avoided for their “low associations and vulgar ideas,” which suggests that the offender is doing something unseemly for a respectable man. This visual joke relied on a pot-kettle formula: A figure so thin as to be see-through is calling out someone else as “too thin.”

    ‘That’s Too Thin’ card.
    L.M. Melander & Bro., 1874. Library of Congress Prints and Photographs Division

    Popular ghosts

    Nothing was meant to imply that these were pictures of actual spirits. Some – like “The Haunted Lane,” in which two men who cower in supposed terror from a ghost are obviously photographed in a studio with “lane” props – were so melodramatic as to be funny. Others were more melancholy and featured mourning husbands whose ghost-wives played the piano beside them, or orphaned children whose ghost-mothers watched over them from beyond the grave. All of them were performances.

    And all of them helped stoke a midcentury market hungry for ghostly thrills. In 1859, novelist Wilkie Collins published his spectral “The Woman in White” in installments in Charles Dickens’ weekly magazine. It sold over 100,000 copies and launched a decade-long craze for hair-raising sensation fiction.

    The “Illustrated Police News,” launched in 1864, contained supposedly true tabloid-style stories that often featured ghosts. And in 1862, John Henry Pepper, a British scientist and popular lecturer, refined a projection technique that could create apparitions onstage during live theater productions. Commonly known as Pepper’s Ghost, the dramatic illusions began appearing immediately on both sides of the Atlantic.

    Some stereoscope cards referenced multiple forms of popular entertainment to create ghost images that worked as layered visual jokes. The 1865 card “A Dream After Seeing Pepper’s Ghost” is a great example of how the Victorian penchant for allusions and wordplay found its way into this visual pastime.

    The sleeping young woman’s “dream” is a photographic ghost: The looming, gauzy figure filling the dark space of the window beside her bed would have appeared to float in 3D stereoscope. “Seeing Pepper’s Ghost” obviously refers to a play she has attended: Her fine clothes tossed haphazardly on the furniture indicate a late evening out.

    But the ghost has the head of a cow and wears a necklace on which is lettered “MUSTARD.” A Victorian viewer accustomed to wordplay riddles would realize that this ghost-of-pepper also implies that the sleeper ate too much of an overly seasoned roast beef dinner, for indigestion was commonly understood to cause bad dreams.

    Together, these details may allude to Dickens’ “A Christmas Carol.” A theater company in 1865 would undoubtedly use the sensational new Pepper’s technique to place the ghost of Jacob Marley onstage to torment his former business partner, the miser Scrooge. And Scrooge quite famously dismisses Marley’s ghost initially as “an undigested bit of beef, a blot of mustard” – that is, as merely a bad dream brought on by overeating. A clever viewer would delight in puzzling through these playful layers of stereoscopic magic.

    There were, of course, also Victorian photographers who purported to capture actual ghosts. They sometimes worked with mediums at séances, and their claims to record the spirit world engendered huge controversy.

    But in the Halloween season, it’s fun to contemplate the lighter side of this history, when an appetite for haunting tales inspired photographic ghost effects that seem delightfully ahead of their time.

    Andrea Kaston Tange does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Victorian ghost photographs amused viewers with spooky thrills – https://theconversation.com/victorian-ghost-photographs-amused-viewers-with-spooky-thrills-240776

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Florida and North Carolina are making it easier for people to vote after the hurricanes – but some risks remain

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Michael T. Morley, Assistant Professor of Law, Florida State University

    People walk into an early voting site in Hendersonville, N.C., on Oct. 17, 2024. Melissa Sue Gerrits/Getty Images

    Polls opened in North Carolina on Oct. 17, 2024, as about 14,000 people in Asheville and surrounding areas remain without power in their homes following Hurricane Helene. In Florida, which started early voting in some counties on Oct. 21, about 400,000 residents are still without power after Hurricane Milton.

    Some experts have said that the hurricanes could cause voter numbers to drop – and impacts of Helene have already prompted a few early polling stations in western North Carolina to close. But more North Carolina residents turned out to vote on the first day of early voting than they did in 2020.

    Amy Lieberman, a politics and society editor at The Conversation U.S., spoke with Michael T. Morley, who studies natural disasters and election law, to understand how these recent storms could complicate voting in the presidential election.

    A home in Manasota Key, Fla., that was damaged by Hurricane Milton is seen on Oct. 13, 2024.
    Joe Raedle/Getty Images

    What are the major issues that hurricanes can create ahead of an election?

    A hurricane or natural disaster makes an election tremendously more challenging for both election officials and voters on various practical levels.

    Election administrators might have been injured, or their homes could be flooded or destroyed. State officials need to ensure, especially in areas that have been hardest hit, that enough local administrators remain in place to continue distributing absentee ballots and to staff early voting locations.

    Still, I have not seen empirical evidence that the results of any federal elections in recent decades have changed as a result of hurricanes.

    What could these major hurricanes mean for voters in North Carolina and Florida?

    Florida has one of the most comprehensive laws to deal with election emergencies of this sort because it faces them frequently.

    Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis signed an executive order on Oct. 3, 2024, in response to Hurricane Helene. Among other things, Florida law says that in a state of emergency the governor can suspend state statutes or regulations governing state business when complying with them can interfere with disaster response.

    Florida, like other states, has deadlines for when election officials must designate polling locations. DeSantis waived this deadline to authorize county officials to designate new ones. DeSantis’ order also gives election officials more discretion about where new polling locations may be located. And he made it easier for state employees to step in and serve as poll workers, particularly on Election Day.

    DeSantis suspended a state requirement so a person who cannot return to their home can ask by phone to have a vote-by-mail ballot sent to wherever they are staying – not just their registered home address. Making it easier for ballots to be sent to people, wherever they are, is one of the most effective measures that Florida has implemented to help make voting easier.

    In North Carolina, meanwhile, state officials have authorized different changes that will apply to the 25 counties in the western part of the state that are under emergency orders because of the hurricane. These changes are mostly focused on voting by mail and polling place workers. They also allow county boards of elections to change Election Day voting locations and permit voters to drop off absentee ballots at any county board of election office by 7:30 p.m. on Election Day.

    Western North Carolina voters now also have until Nov. 4 to request a mail-in ballot, as opposed to the original deadline of Oct. 29.

    Overall, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper authorized US$5 million for the state’s board of elections in order to make it easier for western North Carolina residents to vote.

    What sort of legal issues, if any, do these changes open up?

    Disputes have already arisen about potential extension of the voter registration deadlines in states affected by Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Courts in Florida and Georgia have already declined emergency motions to extend the voter registration deadline.

    A South Carolina state court, in contrast, held in October that the deadline had to be extended for 10 additional days.

    Similar disputes are likely to arise over such election rules as photo identification requirements at polling places and the deadlines for requesting and returning absentee ballots.

    Occasionally, challenges also arise alleging that certain measures to address an emergency have gone too far.

    During the height of the pandemic, for example, the Trump presidential campaign filed lawsuits that unsuccessfully challenged state decisions to automatically mail absentee ballots to people registered to vote.

    A U.S. post offic, damaged by flooding from Hurricane Helen, is pictured on Oct. 3, 2024, in Marshall, N.C., showing one of the complications for people who planned to vote by mail.
    Mario Tama/Getty Images

    What are you most concerned about heading into the election?

    My biggest concern is that, particularly if the election is close, a losing candidate might attempt to use the hurricane as a way of trying to challenge the election results or call them into question.

    Courts will almost certainly reject that. Once the election has happened, a court generally will not set aside the results or order additional voting, even if voters faced substantial burdens and people think there is more that election officials could have done. This is especially true in the context of a presidential election, since the U.S. Constitution and federal law establish several important postelection deadlines involving the Electoral College.

    Some people already have unwarranted skepticism about the electoral process. It would be bad for our democracy if the recent hurricanes are exploited as a basis for refusing to accept the election’s results.

    Michael T. Morley is Sheila M. McDevitt Professor of Law at FSU College of Law. He serves as Faculty Director of the FSU Center for Election Law established by the Florida State Legislature and Vice Chair of the Florida Advisory Committee to the U.S. Commission for Civil Rights. He is a member of the National Task Force on Election Crises and Election Officials Legal Defense Network.

    – ref. Florida and North Carolina are making it easier for people to vote after the hurricanes – but some risks remain – https://theconversation.com/florida-and-north-carolina-are-making-it-easier-for-people-to-vote-after-the-hurricanes-but-some-risks-remain-240961

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nebraska Democrats hope Omaha will be a ‘blue dot’ on the state’s red electoral map − and their lawn sign is a vibe

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Christina Elizabeth Dando, Professor of Geography, University of Nebraska Omaha

    White signs emblazoned with a big blue dot are going up in yards across Omaha, Nebraska, in an unusual political statement of support for Democratic candidates.

    Nebraska splits its electoral votes, giving Omaha’s congressional district a single electoral vote out of the state’s total of five. If enough of Omaha’s metropolitan voters back Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris for president, Omaha will appear on the electoral map as a “blue dot” on a field of Republican red.

    With Harris running neck and neck with former President Donald Trump, the White House could come down to this one vote.

    Power of the dot

    Most U.S. states award all their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the state’s election, no matter the margin of victory. Only Nebraska and Maine split their electoral votes.

    Nebraska awards one vote to each congressional district, plus two votes to the state’s overall winner. It began this practice in 1992 to draw more presidential campaigns to the state. Nebraska, as a whole, so predictably leans conservative that neither Republicans nor Democrats had bothered to campaign there.

    In the eight presidential elections since 1992, Omaha has turned blue only twice – in 2008 and 2020, backing Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

    Democratic voters hope to buck statewide trends again in 2024.

    The blue dot movement began in mid-August 2024 in Omaha’s Dundee neighborhood, when local residents Jason Brown and Ruth Huebner-Brown spray-painted a blue circle on a white sign and put it on their lawn as a conversation starter.

    One sign grew to 10, 100, 1,000, snowballing into a movement. Now blue dot signs can be found well beyond Omaha, even in other states. On Facebook and Reddit, people share where to find the signs and how to make your own.

    A simple blue dot on a white background has become a powerful political symbol – a reference to a map that does not have to be seen to be visualized. For Omahans in the know, the sign is a reminder of what the city’s place on the map might be come Nov. 5.

    For others, the enigmatic sign simply raises questions, creating opportunities for Omahans to discuss the importance of voting in Nebraska.

    Blue dot, black spot

    I am a professor of geography at the University of Nebraska Omaha.

    The sly way the blue dot sign refers to an election map without actually showing that map reminded me of my suffrage movement research.

    In the 1910s, women activists campaigning to get American women the vote used a map as part of their campaign. It depicted U.S. states that had passed suffrage in white and the rest in black – dark marks on the nation.

    The suffragists plastered their map across the country and sold it through the National Woman Suffrage Publishing Company. In newsletters and magazines, they shared how to make maps for rallies using easily accessible materials. The map became so familiar to the American public by 1912 that it was referred to in speeches and newspaper articles without the visual.

    At suffrage parades and pageants they formed “living suffrage maps,” with women dressed in white representing states with the vote and those in black representing states where they could not.

    As women’s suffrage momentum grew, spreading from western to eastern U.S. states, the map had ever-fewer black spots. In 1914, Nevada became the last western state to pass suffrage.

    “The suffrage map showing Nevada as the last ‘black spot’ in the West was printed in every newspaper and on every leaflet,” suffragists later wrote about their efforts. It was “put up in public places and on large banners hung in the streets.”

    With Nebraska’s blue dot signs, Omahans are fighting to keep their spot on the map, not erase it. They are an act of claiming space, making Democrats visible in a state so strongly associated with Republicans.

    On Oct. 20, 2024, in yet another echo of the women’s suffrage movement, they even created a “human blue dot” at a rally in a local park.

    A Republican red dot in Omaha.
    Christina Dando, CC BY

    Blue dot signs have inspired Republican countersigns.

    Two I’ve seen are a white sign depicting just an entirely red Nebraska, and a white sign with a large red dot with a golden wave on its top that resembles Trump’s hair.

    These red dot and red Nebraska signs are catching on, but not in the same way as blue dot signs have.

    Bye-bye, blue dot?

    Aware of Omaha’s sudden electoral importance, Republicans have begun trying to end Nebraska’s system of splitting its electoral votes.

    In April 2024, Trump and the conservative commentator Charlie Kirk called on state legislators to propose a bill changing the state to a winner-take-all system.

    Kirk described Nebraska as “being one of the most Republican states” and said the state’s electoral votes must “go towards electing the candidate the vast majority of Nebraskans prefer.”

    Many people reacted with fury, and the bill did not advance in Nebraska’s one-house state Legislature. That’s another of the state’s political quirks: Nebraska is the only state to have a state legislature without an upper and lower chamber of lawmakers.

    The system, called the unicameral, is officially partyless, meaning its 49 representatives are elected without their party on the ballot.

    The unicameral dates from 1937 when it was thought this less costly, nonpartisan system would be a more representative form of government. So is splitting the state’s electoral votes: Voters can feel more confident that their vote counts and that every vote counts.

    When South Carolina Republican U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham visited Nebraska in September 2024, he pushed Gov. Jim Pillen, a fellow Republican, to implement a winner-take-all system for the 2024 election.

    Pillen said he would not call a special session of the unicameral unless he has the 33 votes needed to pass the change to the state’s electoral system. That appears unlikely to happen before November.

    Red + blue = purple?

    A winner-take-all approach to Electoral College votes has the effect of erasing nuance and difference on the map of America by painting states as entirely red or blue.

    No state has ever voted 100% Democrat or Republican. The country should be drawn in shades of purple.

    Nebraska has the misleading appearance of overwhelming redness because of its many Republican-leaning rural counties with low population density. Yet Nebraska’s registered voters are approximately two-thirds Republicans and one-third Democrats. Many registered Democrats live in cities such as Omaha and Lincoln.

    But they can be found throughout the state – just look for the blue dot.

    Christina Elizabeth Dando does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Nebraska Democrats hope Omaha will be a ‘blue dot’ on the state’s red electoral map − and their lawn sign is a vibe – https://theconversation.com/nebraska-democrats-hope-omaha-will-be-a-blue-dot-on-the-states-red-electoral-map-and-their-lawn-sign-is-a-vibe-240528

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How pollsters have adapted to changing technology and voters who don’t answer the phone

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Spencer Kimball, Associate Professor of Communications, Director of Emerson College Polling, Emerson College

    Pollsters have developed a range of methods for selecting who is asked to answer poll questions. Guido Mieth/Moment via Getty Images

    As the U.S. presidential election approaches, news reports and social media feeds are increasingly filled with data from public opinion polls. How do pollsters know which candidate is ahead in what swing state or with which key demographic group? Or what issues are most important to as many as 264 million eligible voters across a vast country?

    In other words: How do pollsters do what they do?

    At Emerson College Polling, we lead a dynamic survey operation that, like many others, has continuously evolved to keep pace with shifting trends and technologies in survey research. At the inception of survey research – about 100 years ago – data was primarily collected through mail and in-person interviews. That’s not true nowadays, of course.

    In the early days of the survey industry, being asked to participate in a poll was novel, and response rates were high. Today, we’re bombarded with survey requests via email, text, online pop-ups, and phone calls from unknown numbers. With fewer landlines, busy parents juggling work and family, and younger adults who rarely answer calls, preferring text communication, it has become much harder to engage respondents. This shift in behavior reflects the evolving challenges of reaching diverse populations in modern survey research.

    The goal is to describe a diverse community with a variety of viewpoints.
    ferrantraite/E+ via Getty Images

    Evolution of data collection

    In the broadest possible terms, polls and surveys have two elements – choosing whom to contact, and reaching them in a way that’s likely to get a response. These elements are often intertwined.

    In the 1970s, after household telephones had become widespread in the U.S., survey operators adopted a random-sampling method called random digit dialing, in which the survey’s designers would choose the area codes they wanted to reach and live operators randomly dialed seven-digit phone numbers within that area code.

    By the 1990s, pollsters began moving away from random digit dialing, which was time-consuming and expensive because the random selection often picked phone numbers that were out of service or not useful for opinion surveys, such as businesses or government offices. Instead, pollsters began adopting registration-based sampling, in which public voter registration records were used to compile the lists from which respondents were randomly selected.

    The information in these and other associated public records, such as those detailing gender, age and educational attainment, allowed a refinement of random sampling called stratified sampling. That’s where the one big list was split into subgroups based on these different characteristics, such as party affiliation, voting frequency, gender, race or ethnicity, income or educational attainment.

    Survey-takers then chose randomly from among those subgroups in proportion to the population as a whole. So if 40% of the overall population have college degrees and 60% do not, a poll of 100 people would randomly select 40 people from the list of those with a college degree and 60 from the list of those without.

    Other advances in ways to reach respondents emerged late in the 20th century, such as interactive voice response, which did not require live operators. Instead, automated systems played recordings of the questions and registered the spoken responses. In 2000, internet-based polling also began to emerge, in which participants filled out online forms.

    From probability to nonprobability sampling

    Over the past two decades, the rise of cellphones, text messaging and online platforms has dramatically changed survey research. The traditional gold standard of using only live operator telephone polls has become nearly obsolete. Now that phones display who is calling, fewer people answer calls from unknown numbers, and fewer of them are willing to talk to a stranger about their personal views.

    Even the random sampling that was once standard has given way to a nonprobability sampling approach based on increasingly specific population proportions. So if 6% of a population are Black men with a certain level of education and a certain amount of household income, then a survey will strive to have 6% of its respondents match those characteristics.

    In quota sampling, participants may not be selected randomly but rather chosen as participants because they have specific demographic attributes. This method is less statistically rigorous and more prone to bias, though it may yield a representative sample with relative efficiency. By contrast, stratified sampling randomly selects participants within defined groups, reducing sampling error and providing more precise estimates of population characteristics.

    To help polling operations find potential respondents, political and marketing consulting firms have compiled voter information, including demographic data and contact details. At Emerson College Polling, we have access to a database of 273 million U.S. adults, with 123 million mobile numbers, 116 million email addresses and nearly 59 million landline numbers.

    A newer technique pollsters are using to reach respondents is something called river sampling, an online method in which individuals encounter a survey during their regular internet browsing and social media activity, often through an ad or pop-up. They complete a short screening questionnaire and are then invited to join a survey opt-in panel whose members will be asked to take future surveys.

    Databases compile large amounts of information about many U.S. voters.
    da-kuk/E+ via Getty Images

    Emerson College Polling methodology

    Our polling operation has used a range of approaches to reach the more than 162,000 people who have completed our polls so far this year in the United States.

    Unlike traditional pollsters, Emerson College Polling does not rely on live operator data collection outside of small-scale tests of new survey methods to evaluate and improve the effectiveness of different polling approaches.

    Instead, like most modern pollsters, we use a mix of approaches, including text-to-web surveys, interactive voice response on landlines, email outreach, and opt-in panels. This combination allows us to reach a broader, more representative audience, which is essential for accurate polling in today’s fragmented social and media landscape. This diverse population includes younger individuals who communicate through various platforms distinct from those used by older generations.

    When we contact the people in our stratified samples, we take into account differences between each communication method. For example, older people tend to answer landlines, while men and middle-aged people are more responsive to mobile text-to-web surveys. To reach underrepresented groups – such as adults ages 18 to 29 and Hispanic respondents – we use online databases that they have voluntarily signed up for, knowing they may be surveyed.

    We also use information about whom we sample and how to calculate the margin of error, which measures the precision of poll results. Larger sample sizes tend to be more representative of the overall population and therefore lead to a smaller margin of error.

    For instance, a poll of 400 respondents typically has a 4.9% margin of error, while increasing the sample size to 1,000 reduces it to 3%, offering more accurate insights.

    The goal, as ever, is to present to the public an accurate reflection of what the people as a whole think about candidates and issues.

    Spencer Kimball works for Emerson College Polling.

    Camille Mumford works for Emerson College Polling.

    Matt Taglia works for Emerson College Polling

    – ref. How pollsters have adapted to changing technology and voters who don’t answer the phone – https://theconversation.com/how-pollsters-have-adapted-to-changing-technology-and-voters-who-dont-answer-the-phone-240283

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Don’t panic reading ‘electoral process porn’: There are plenty of safeguards to make sure voters’ wishes are respected

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Justin Levitt, Professor of Law, Loyola Law School Los Angeles

    Electoral process porn can make people think their vote will be stolen, so what’s the point of voting? Illustration: wildpixel/ iStock / Getty Images Plus

    You’ve probably seen them: alarming columns or stories with alarming headlines about how somebody is going to exploit an obscure provision in election law to undo the 2024 presidential election and toss it to the House of Representatives. Your vote won’t count, and democracy will go to hell.

    Election law scholar Justin Levitt throws cold water on those scenarios, and in an interview with Naomi Schalit, The Conversation’s senior editor for politics and democracy, he says the voters will decide the election, “flat out.”

    What’s “electoral process porn?”

    It’s a writing genre identifying a tactic or loophole that’s supposedly going to fundamentally change the election process – what I called “The Key to the Whole Thing This Time” in a Slate piece earlier this year – usually, by taking away everyone’s voting rights and magically delivering the election to one candidate. It’s a lurid, titillating take that depends on the fact that election law and process can sometimes seem impenetrable.

    What distinguishes this type of think piece from other reporting on the election process is tone and emphasis, rather than information. Just like not every sex scene in the movies needs an NC-17 label, not every piece about how elections work is going to be electoral process porn.

    Perhaps the worst part about electoral process porn is that it leaves readers with an unjustified feeling of helplessness, even the thought that voting might be pointless, if it’s all subject to this supposed hidden gimmick. It is dystopian fiction masquerading as analysis, feeding on people’s anxieties that a basic process of self-government might be taken out of their own hands.

    A selection of headlines trumpeting the ways the 2024 presidential election could be subverted.
    Mother Jones, Politico, USA Today

    Can you give me a few examples? I want the person who reads this to understand concretely what you’re talking about.

    Sure. One example fits the mold of the artful con: the heist movie or spy thriller that depends on knowing the particular procedural lever to deliver results, the MacGuffin nobody else can anticipate, making the person who’s the center of the thriller the smartest person in the room. It’s the story about an Electoral College feature in which an obscure part of the law, say subparagraph (ii)(B) of paragraph (1)(c) about delivering a particular piece of paper, secretly holds the spell to make millions of votes disappear. It depends on a wildly implausible sequence of events and a whiff of magical legalism, with a basic misunderstanding of what legal rules are for.

    Another example is the armchair detective mystery, with the promise that if you squint just right, you can find the clues that finally solve the big crime. This type of piece often centers on alleged voter fraud, making a legitimate loss feel more palatable by suggesting it’s theft instead. The thing is, these are usually murder mysteries with no dead bodies. People motivated to play detective will often find suspicious patterns in conduct that’s entirely lawful.

    A third version is a horror story, with jump scares at scale: tales of voter suppression predicting that evildoers will steal the election by preventing millions of legitimate voters from casting ballots that count.

    But there are practices and rules that can be obstacles to voting.

    There sure are. I’m a civil rights lawyer, so it’s worth noting that some election rules do make the process harder than it needs to be. Sometimes intentionally. Rules disenfranchising people with convictions offer a particularly stark version of that very real problem. We’ve got an obligation to keep making the election process better.

    But these electoral process porn articles often portray the system as an endless nightmare of procedural hurdles. That’s not reality for most of the electorate.

    Democrats and others have criticized Trump and his followers in the GOP for destroying confidence in our elections. Yet much of this kind of what you label “porn” comes from Democrats and progressives. Doesn’t this also diminish people’s confidence in the election’s integrity?

    Yes. And it diminishes people’s confidence in the power of their vote. I think it would be somewhat less harmful if it were paired with a message of empowerment, like, “Here is what people are trying to do to take power. But it’s not going to work. And you can ensure your voice counts by registering and casting your ballot.”

    A person drops off a mail-in ballot on Oct. 15, 2024, in Doylestown, Pa.
    Hannah Beier/Getty Images

    I don’t mean to shake my finger at writers who are trying to present information in a way that draws readers in. But the tone of these columns, and the degree to which they empower or discourage, matters. These process-porn pieces are at their worst when the voters are peripheral, when the articles say, “This is being done to you, and there’s really nothing you can do about it other than get angry and give us money.”

    We’re getting pretty close to Election Day, which is the culmination of the vote. Are there legitimate problems that voters should be aware of?

    There will be some bumps, sure. Until humans figure out how not to make mistakes, there will be issues that crop up. It’s a good thing that for most Americans, voting is a period of time, rather than a single day. That gives opportunities to catch and address the problems.

    The U.S. election process is remarkably robust. Everyone saw that in 2020, the most scrutinized election in the nation’s history, during the middle of a pandemic. The system was stress-tested in ways beyond anyone’s wildest imagination, and it responded remarkably well.

    There’s always work to improve the voting system – the Constitution reminds Americans to work toward a “more perfect union.” But the fact that we can and should do better should not shake people’s confidence in the integrity of the election results overall.

    The Electoral College means that a few thousand voters in a few swing states are going to decide the winner. It’s going to be up to those voters, flat out – who decides to cast a ballot and who they decide to vote for – not a deus ex machina. The election process is designed to tell us who we chose, not to determine the answer without us.



    Read more:
    Why Pennsylvania is the key to a Harris or Trump Electoral College victory

    Of course, it has happened that a presidential election came down to 537 votes in a single state – remember Florida in 2000. When it’s that close, everything matters. A butterfly ballot flaps its wings in one part of the country and the answer changes nationwide.

    But 537 votes is an anomaly. The elections of 2016 and 2020 were very close in the states that determined the Electoral College results – but still nowhere near Florida-in-2000 close.

    And because of all the fail-safes built into the system, even very close is something the election process can handle. I’m very confident that the voters are going to decide this election, not the lawyers or the courts.

    Electoral process porn is adult fiction. In the real world, it turns out “The Key To The Whole Thing This Time” isn’t a process quirk. It’s us.

    Professor Levitt served as the country’s first White House Senior Policy Advisor for Democracy and Voting Rights, from 2021-2022.

    – ref. Don’t panic reading ‘electoral process porn’: There are plenty of safeguards to make sure voters’ wishes are respected – https://theconversation.com/dont-panic-reading-electoral-process-porn-there-are-plenty-of-safeguards-to-make-sure-voters-wishes-are-respected-241403

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: On Ukraine, candidate Trump touts his role as dealmaker while Harris sticks with unwavering support

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Lena Surzhko Harned, Associate Teaching Professor of Political Science, Penn State

    Continued support from the White House for Ukraine could hinge on the presidential election. AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta

    The U.S. presidential election isn’t drawing eyes only at home – Moscow and Kyiv are watching closely, too.

    Regardless of who wins in November, there will be significant implications for Ukraine as it continues to resist Russia in a war heading toward a fourth year.

    Washington’s continued support is seen by some as no less than an existential issue for Ukraine. Without U.S. arms and aid, it is unlikely that the nation would be able to continue repelling its larger, better-armed neighbor.

    During the presidential debate on Sept. 10, 2024, Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris and Republican contender Donald Trump had a chance to clarify their positions on Ukraine. Trump evaded ABC moderator David Muir’s question regarding the importance of Ukraine’s victory over Russia, twice. Instead, he repeated his long-standing line that he would achieve a negotiated peace quickly – even before taking office as president.

    At the same debate, Harris dismissed the idea of Trump negotiating with “a dictator who would eat you for lunch.” She instead emphasized the Biden policy to support Ukraine “as long as it takes” in concert with U.S. allies.

    But detail has been light on what either candidate would actually do to support Ukraine and end the war. So, what do we know about each candidate’s approach to Ukraine based on their records?

    Trump: A ‘very fair and rapid deal’?

    Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Trump has repeatedly stated that ending the war is in the U.S.’s best interests and that he can end the war quickly. In fact, Trump is certain that had he remained president after the 2020 election, Russian President Vladimir Putin would not have invaded – an unsubstantiated claim he repeated during the Sept. 10 presidential debate.

    Trump has often reiterated that both Putin and Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy respect him, and he would be able to use his “good relationship” with both to bring them to the negotiating table and end the war.

    Yet, Trump’s record on his relationships with Zelenskyy and Putin is rather complicated.

    Trump’s admiration for Putin is well documented and dates back to his first presidential run in 2016, sparking numerous investigations and reports of collusion. Most recently, Bob Woodward reported that Trump secretly sent COVID-19 tests to Putin in the midst of a pandemic shortage, a claim confirmed by the Kremlin.

    Trump’s relationship with Zelenskyy is similarly laden with baggage. A 2019 phone call between the two men, during which Trump pressured Ukraine’s president to open a criminal investigation into Joe Biden, led to Trump’s impeachment. In exchange, Ukraine would have received continued U.S. support for the country’s defense against Russia, which had been waging a proxy war in eastern regions of Ukraine since 2014. During the subsequent hearings in Congress, one of Trump’s aids testified that “Trump did not give a sh*t about Ukraine” and was only interested in his own political gains.

    Standing next to Zelenskyy during a meeting at the Trump Tower on Sept. 27, 2024 – their first meeting since Sept. 25, 2019 – Trump said he was sure that both Zelenskyy and Putin are interested in peace and that a “very fair” and “rapid” deal is possible.

    When asked what that deal might entail, Trump responded that it’s “too early” to discuss details and that both he and Zelenskyy have “their own ideas.”

    While the Republican candidate has not been explicit on the details of negotiations or possible conditions, some of his proxies have voiced proposals. Trump’s vice presidential pick, JD Vance, has laid out a plan that includes potential land concessions on the part of Ukraine and the creation of a demilitarized zone along the battle lines of the Russian-occupied territory of eastern Ukraine.

    Meanwhile, Trump’s son Donald Jr. co-authored a piece with former presidential candidate turned Trump ally Robert F Kennedy Jr., arguing that a concession to Russian demands for “Ukrainian neutrality and a halt to NATO’s eastward expansion” were reasonable to avoid a nuclear game of chicken. Although these have not been echoed in Trump’s own statements on Ukraine, both men have the ear of the Republican candidate.

    These plans have been criticized as closely resembling those of the Kremlin. Prior to meeting with Trump in New York, Zelenskyy had also criticized Vance’s plan and expressed doubts that Trump and his team really know how to end the war.

    Harris: ‘Strategic interest, not charity’

    Harris has been harshly critical of Trump’s approach to Ukraine. “They are not proposals for peace,” Harris said in response to suggestions that Ukraine cede territory for peace. “Instead they are proposals for surrender,” she added.

    Such views are in line with Harris’ record. As part of the Biden administration, Harris has given vocal support to Ukraine’s fight for political sovereignty and territorial integrity.

    At the onset of the full-scale invasion in early 2022, Harris traveled to Europe to help shore up a coalition of European allies to support Ukraine.

    As vice president, Harris has repeatedly condemned Russian war crimes in Ukraine. In February 2023, while attending the annual Munich Security Conference in Germany, she announced that the U.S. has determined that Russian actions in Ukraine amounted to “crimes against humanity,” affirming U.S. commitment to the international rule of law.

    Along with continued support, the U.S. has provided substantial aid for Ukraine, totaling US$61.3 billion in military aid since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

    The Biden administration also has said that rising costs and keeping pressure on Russia through sanctions are important mechanisms to keep Moscow accountable. Harris reiterated this need to maintain sanctions and broad coalition support for Ukraine at the Munich Security Conference in February 2024 and again in June at the peace summit organized by Ukraine in Switzerland.

    As a presidential candidate, Harris has openly signaled her commitment to supporting Kyiv – not only for Ukraine survival but for the collective security of NATO allies and the U.S. itself. Harris emphasized this point in the September debate, suggesting that Ukraine was not Putin’s final stop and that he has “his eyes on the rest of Europe, starting with Poland.”

    Standing next to Zelenskyy in Washington on Sept. 26, 2024, Harris reiterated the point: “The United States supports Ukraine not out of charity, but because it’s in our strategic interest.”

    Yet, White House policy on Ukraine has been criticized for being slow and hesitant in supplying weaponry. The U.S. has imposed rules on the use of heavy weaponry against targets inside Russia. Furthermore, the U.S. has so far been reticent on Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO, which is seen as crucial for any lasting peace in Kyiv. How Harris’ White House would differ from Biden’s on these issues is not clear.

    Beyond the candidates

    Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, the U.S. Congress has passed five bills that provide aid to Ukraine, totaling US$175 billion.

    However, a six-month delay in aid in early 2024 highlighted growing partisan tension in Congress over continued aid to Ukraine.

    The composition of Congress after the November election is another unknown factor in Washington’s support for Ukraine. Zelenskyy met with congressional leaders during his visit to the U.S. in September, but notably absent was Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson, who in the past has shown reluctance to support continued funding.

    For the large part, support for Ukraine remains bipartisan in Congress and among American voters. Yet there is a risk the election could further politicize the issue. And the outcome of November’s vote could determine whether U.S. efforts going forward focus more on pushing for a negotiated deal or on-going support for Ukraine.

    Lena Surzhko Harned does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. On Ukraine, candidate Trump touts his role as dealmaker while Harris sticks with unwavering support – https://theconversation.com/on-ukraine-candidate-trump-touts-his-role-as-dealmaker-while-harris-sticks-with-unwavering-support-237534

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Women are at a higher risk of dying from heart disease − in part because doctors don’t take major sex and gender differences into account

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Amy Huebschmann, Professor of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus

    Rates of heart disease and cardiac events in women are often underestimated. eternalcreative/iStock via Getty Images

    A simple difference in the genetic code – two X chromosomes versus one X chromosome and one Y chromosome – can lead to major differences in heart disease. It turns out that these genetic differences influence more than just sex organs and sex assigned at birth – they fundamentally alter the way cardiovascular disease develops and presents.

    While sex influences the mechanisms behind how cardiovascular disease develops, gender plays a role in how health care providers recognize and manage it. Sex refers to biological characteristics such as genetics, hormones, anatomy and physiology, while gender refers to social, psychological and cultural constructs. Women are more likely to die after a first heart attack or stroke than men. Women are also more likely to have additional or different heart attack symptoms that go beyond chest pain, such as nausea, jaw pain, dizziness and fatigue. It is often difficult to fully disentangle the influences of sex on cardiovascular disease outcomes versus the influences of gender.

    While women who haven’t entered menopause have a lower risk of cardiovascular disease than men, their cardiovascular risk accelerates dramatically after menopause. In addition, if a woman has Type 2 diabetes, her risk of heart attack accelerates to be equivalent to that of men, even if the woman with diabetes has not yet gone through menopause. Further data is needed to better understand differences in cardiovascular disease risk among nonbinary and transgender patients.

    Despite these differences, one key thing is the same: Heart attack, stroke and other forms of cardiovascular disease are the leading cause of death for all people, regardless of sex or gender.

    We are researchers who study women’s health and the way cardiovascular disease develops and presents differently in women and men. Our work has identified a crucial need to update medical guidelines with more sex-specific approaches to diagnosis and treatment in order to improve health outcomes for all.

    Gender differences in heart disease

    The reasons behind sex and gender differences in cardiovascular disease are not completely known. Nor are the distinct biological effects of sex, such as hormonal and genetic factors, versus gender, such as social, cultural and psychological factors, clearly differentiated.

    What researchers do know is that the accumulated evidence of what good heart care should look like for women compared with men has as many holes in it as Swiss cheese. Medical evidence for treating cardiovascular disease often comes from trials that excluded women, since women for the most part weren’t included in scientific research until the NIH Revitalization Act of 1993. For example, current guidelines to treat cardiovascular risk factors such as high blood pressure are based primarily on data from men. This is despite evidence that differences in the way that cardiovascular disease develops leads women to experience cardiovascular disease differently.

    Gender biases in health care influence the kind of tests and attention that women receive.
    FG Trade Latin/E+ via Getty Images

    In addition to sex differences, implicit gender biases among providers and gendered social norms among patients lead clinicians to underestimate the risk of cardiac events in women compared with men. These biases play a role in why women are more likely than men to die from cardiac events. For example, for patients with symptoms that are borderline for cardiovascular disease, clinicians tend to be more aggressive in ordering artery imaging for men than for women. One study linked this tendency to order less aggressive tests for women partly to a gender bias that men are more open than women to taking risks.

    In a study of about 3,000 patients with a recent heart attack, women were less likely than men to think that their heart attack symptoms were due to a heart condition. Additionally, most women do not know that cardiovascular disease is the No. 1 cause of death among women. Overall, women’s misperceptions of their own risk may hold them back from getting a doctor to check out possible symptoms of a heart attack or stroke.

    These issues are further exacerbated for women of color. Lack of access to health care and additional challenges drive health disparities among underrepresented racial and ethnic minority populations.

    Sex difference in heart disease

    Cardiovascular disease physically looks different for women and men, specifically in the plaque buildup on artery walls that contributes to illness.

    Women have fewer cholesterol crystals and fewer calcium deposits in their artery plaque than men do. Physiological differences in the smallest blood vessels feeding the heart also play a role in cardiovascular outcomes.

    Women are more likely than men to have cardiovascular disease that presents as multiple narrowed arteries that are not fully “clogged,” resulting in chest pain because blood flow can’t ratchet up enough to meet higher oxygen demands with exercise, much like a low-flow showerhead. When chest pain presents in this way, doctors call this condition ischemia and no obstructive coronary arteries. In comparison, men are more likely to have a “clogged” artery in a concentrated area that can be opened up with a stent or with cardiac bypass surgery. Options for multiple narrowed arteries have lagged behind treatment options for typical “clogged” arteries, which puts women at a disadvantage.

    In addition, in the early stages of a heart attack, the levels of blood markers that indicate damage to the heart are lower in women than in men. This can lead to more missed diagnoses of coronary artery disease in women compared with men.

    The reasons for these differences are not fully clear. Some potential factors include differences in artery plaque composition that make men’s plaque more likely to rupture or burst and women’s plaque more likely to erode. Women also have lower heart mass and smaller arteries than men even after taking body size into consideration.

    Reducing sex disparities

    Too often, women with symptoms of cardiovascular disease are sent away from doctor’s offices because of gender biases that “women don’t get heart disease.”

    Considering how symptoms of cardiovascular disease vary by sex and gender could help doctors better care for all patients.

    One way that the rubber is meeting the road is with regard to better approaches to diagnosing heart attacks for women and men. Specifically, when diagnosing heart attacks, using sex-specific cutoffs for blood tests that measure heart damage – called high-sensitivity troponin tests – can improve their accuracy, decreasing missed diagnoses, or false negatives, in women while also decreasing overdiagnoses, or false positives, in men.

    Our research laboratory’s leaders,collaborators and other internationally recognized research colleagues – some of whom partner with our Ludeman Family Center for Women’s Health Research on the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus – will continue this important work to close this gap between the sexes in health care. Research in this field is critical to shine a light on ways clinicians can better address sex-specific symptoms and to bring forward more tailored treatments.

    The Biden administration’s recent executive order to advance women’s health research is paving the way for research to go beyond just understanding what causes sex differences in cardiovascular disease. Developing and testing right-sized approaches to care for each patient can help achieve better health for all.

    Amy Huebschmann receives funding from the National Institutes of Health, the National Heart Lung Blood Institute, the National Cancer Institute, the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, the United States Health Resources and Services Administration and the University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus.The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the view of the National Institutes of Health, the Department of Health and Human Services, or the United States government.

    Judith Regensteiner receives funding from the National Institutes of Health focused on sex differences in the cardiovascular consequences of type 2 diabetes. She also has a mentoring grant from the NIH.

    – ref. Women are at a higher risk of dying from heart disease − in part because doctors don’t take major sex and gender differences into account – https://theconversation.com/women-are-at-a-higher-risk-of-dying-from-heart-disease-in-part-because-doctors-dont-take-major-sex-and-gender-differences-into-account-233861

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –