NewzIntel.com

Category: Report

  • MIL-OSI Global: A brief guide to vitamin and mineral supplements – when too much of a good thing can become toxic

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Dipa Kamdar, Senior Lecturer in Pharmacy Practice, Kingston University

    KucherAV/Shutterstock

    Around half of UK adults currently take a food supplement – but vitamins and minerals are usually only needed in small amounts and too much of a good thing can be bad for you.

    Here’s what you need to know about the benefits and risks of some of the most common vitamins and minerals.

    Vitamin A

    Vitamin A aids the immune system in fighting off infections, helps you see better in the dark and is needed for healthy skin. Most people can get enough vitamin A from eating dairy, oily fish and liver. Yellow and red vegetables such as carrots and peppers, contain beta-carotene, which breaks down into vitamin A in the body. The recommended daily allowance (RDA) is 700 micrograms and 600 micrograms for men and women respectively.

    Although your body will store excess vitamin A, some research shows having more than 1.5mg a day over many years may weaken bones. In older people, this can lead to fractures as they are more likely to get osteoporosis. In severe cases, people may experience irreversible liver damage.

    If you are pregnant, you should avoid vitamin A supplements completely – excess vitamin A can cause birth defects and miscarriage.

    Vitamin B6

    Also called pyridoxine, this vitamin is needed to make healthy red blood cells and help the body store energy from food. The RDA is 1.4mg and 1.2mg a day for men and women respectively. This can be obtained by eating, for example, fortified cereal, chicken and soya beans. More than 10mg a day is not recommended as the effects are unclear.

    But taking 200mg or more a day has been linked to peripheral neuropathy – when the nerves in the body’s extremities are damaged. This can start with tingling in the arms and legs and lead to loss of feeling. In some patients the effect will stop once the vitamin B6 is stopped. In other patients, nerve damage can be permanent.

    Folic acid

    Folic acid or folate is needed to make healthy red blood cells. Good sources of folic acid include green leafy vegetables, chickpeas and fortified cereals. The RDA is 200 micrograms daily.

    In patients who are pregnant, folic acid is recommended to prevent neural tube defects like spina bifida. Doctors may prescribe higher than recommended doses (5mg) in high risk patients.

    Consuming more than 1000 micrograms (1mg) of folic acid can mask symptoms of vitamin B12 deficiency, such as tiredness, tingling hands and feet, sore tongue and muscle weakness. These can indicate a vitamin B12 anaemia. By correcting the anaemia symptoms caused by a B12 deficiency, high folate levels can prevent the detection of an underlying B12 problem, which could lead to brain damage if left untreated.

    Vitamin D and calcium

    The amount of calcium in the body is controlled by vitamin D. Both nutrients help with healthy bones and teeth. Vitamin D is also needed for the immune system, muscles and nerves. Some foods like fortified cereal contain vitamin D but it is mostly made in the body when the skin is exposed to sunlight. The RDA for vitamin D is 10 micrograms. Those with a vitamin D deficiency may be prescribed higher doses.

    People with darker skin or who do not have much exposure to sunlight may benefit from taking a daily supplement. But too much vitamin D over many years can cause kidney failure and irregular heartbeats. It may even be bad for the bones.

    A Canadian study found that high doses could be linked to weakened bones. This is because high vitamin D intake causes too much calcium to build up in the body. The body starts to break down bones to lower the calcium.

    Iron

    Iron is an important nutrient needed to make red blood cells. Sources include red meat and beans. Iron deficiency is the world’s most common cause of anaemia; however, taking too much can be toxic. The RDA for iron varies depending on your sex and age but you shouldn’t take more than 17mg a day. Higher doses can be bought from a pharmacy or prescribed if there is a diagnosed deficiency.

    Taking more than 20mg of iron everyday can cause stomach problems such as vomiting, diarrhoea and pain. Prolonged use or higher doses can cause organ damage such as liver failure. This is because it builds up in the organs and interferes with normal cell function.

    Fish oil

    These supplements contain omega-3 fatty acids. Different fats are needed to support the cells in the body and also to keep the heart, lungs, blood vessels and immune system working properly. Some are essential for brain and eye development in babies. Fish oil has been linked to a lower chance of heart disease. However, studies have mixed results about how effective these really are.

    A recent study showed that healthy people taking fish oil supplements may have an increased risk of heart issues like stroke or atrial fibrillation. The benefits are mainly seen in people who already have heart disease. However, there are still benefits from eating food rich in omega-3s such as oily fish.

    The British Dietetic Association says it’s better to improve diet before considering supplements. Some groups, like infants, pregnant women and those with a diagnosed deficiency, need supplements. Different supplements have different amounts of vitamins and minerals so always read the label to make sure you’re taking the recommended dose – and avoid taking multiple supplements that could increase your intake of a particular vitamin or mineral beyond safe levels. Ask your doctor, pharmacist or dietitian to check if you need a supplement before taking anything.

    Dipa Kamdar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. A brief guide to vitamin and mineral supplements – when too much of a good thing can become toxic – https://theconversation.com/a-brief-guide-to-vitamin-and-mineral-supplements-when-too-much-of-a-good-thing-can-become-toxic-251528

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Turkey: a favourable international climate is spurring Erdoğan’s crackdown on democracy

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Massimo D’Angelo, Research Associate in the Institute for Diplomacy and International Affairs, Loughborough University

    The Turkish judiciary has finally succeeded in sidelining Istanbul’s mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, at the fourth attempt. On the morning of March 19, the 53-year-old posted a video on social media announcing that police had arrived at his home to arrest him on charges of corruption, aiding a terrorist organisation and organised crime.

    “Hundreds of police are at my door”, he said in a voice message. “This immoral and tyrannical approach will undoubtedly be overturned by the will and resilience of our people”.

    Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, has consistently excelled at positioning himself on the international stage, adeptly seizing opportunities left by others and turning them to his advantage. He has demonstrated this once again by orchestrating the arrest of İmamoğlu, his main political rival.

    With global events bolstering his leverage over the west, Erdoğan is well placed to act with impunity, knowing that his strategic importance will likely shield him from serious repercussions.

    The judiciary’s first attempt to remove İmamoğlu through legal means came in 2019, shortly after he won the Istanbul mayoral election by a narrow margin (around 13,000 votes). Erdoğan’s ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) contested the results, citing irregularities.

    Under intense pressure from the government, the Supreme Electoral Council annulled the vote and ordered a rerun. İmamoğlu not only retained, but significantly increased his lead. He secured victory over the AKP’s candidate, Binali Yıldırım, by more than 800,000 votes.

    Then, in 2022, İmamoğlu was sentenced to two years in prison for having called two public officials “fools” three years earlier. Ultimately, he was not arrested. But the sentence severely undermined his presidential ambitions, prompting him to forgo running for the presidency the following year.

    The third attempt occurred just days ago, when the government revoked the validity of İmamoğlu’s academic degree on bureaucratic grounds. Turkey’s political future looks to be entering a new and more precarious phase.

    İmamoğlu was born in Akçaabat, a district of Trabzon province on north-east Turkey’s Black Sea coast. He graduated in economics at Istanbul University and worked as a construction entrepreneur before entering politics.

    He is married with three children and, like Erdoğan, is passionate about football. In his youth, he was both a footballer and the managing director of his hometown’s football club, Trabzonspor.

    In 2024, İmamoğlu was reelected as mayor of Istanbul. Over the past six years, he has become a highly prominent political figure and, given the city’s size and his broad popularity, he has often been regarded as a natural candidate for the Turkish presidency.

    Many expected him to run as the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) candidate in the 2023 presidential election. But the party chose its leader, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, instead.

    This decision was partly driven by internal power struggles between the party’s old guard and newer leadership. However, the insult lawsuit against İmamoğlu alarmed many within the CHP, who feared that a potential arrest during the campaign would plunge the contest into chaos.

    Kılıçdaroğlu is less popular than İmamoğlu, and is from an older generation of opposition politicians who have repeatedly failed to challenge Erdoğan effectively. He ultimately lost to Erdoğan in the second round of voting.

    Despite state-led media campaigns to discredit İmamoğlu, his popularity has continued to rise. As a leading CHP figure, he was the frontrunner in the party’s primaries scheduled for March 23, ahead of the 2028 presidential elections. The arrest of İmamoğlu is widely seen as Erdoğan’s latest attempt to obstruct his candidacy.

    A pattern of political suppression

    Along with İmamoğlu, Turkish authorities have detained 87 people as part of an investigation into alleged terrorism and organised crime in Istanbul.

    Prosecutors accuse İmamoğlu of leading a criminal organisation, engaging in bribery, extortion and bid rigging. The inquiry also links him to financial misconduct and alleged ties with the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), which the Turkish state categorises as a terrorist organisation.

    This is not the first time prominent political leaders in Turkey have been arrested on such charges. İmamoğlu’s case closely mirrors that of Selahattin Demirtaş, a Kurdish politician and former co-chair of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic party (HDP), who has been imprisoned since November 2016.

    Demirtaş, who was arrested during Erdoğan’s crackdown on political opposition after an attempted coup in 2016, was charged with “terrorist propaganda” and “undermining state unity”. In elections the previous year, his presidential campaign had gained widespread support, allowing the HDP to surpass Turkey’s 10% electoral threshold for entering parliament for the first time.

    Despite international calls for his release, including rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, Demirtaş remains incarcerated. In 2024, he was sentenced to a total of 42 years. Much like İmamoğlu today, his continued detention is widely regarded as politically motivated.

    In their influential work, How Democracies Die, Harvard professors Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt argue that the willingness to curtail civil liberties, such as controlling the media and suppressing dissent, is typical of populist leaders determined to tighten their grip on power.

    This latest crackdown is yet another episode in the continued erosion of democratic space in Turkey. However, Erdoğan currently operates in an unusually favourable global climate, with multiple strategic negotiations placing him centre stage.

    Although he has not hesitated to sideline rivals in the past, this environment has shifted further in his favour. The US president, Donald Trump, has rarely opposed such actions or condemned the suppression of political rights in other countries. On several occasions, Trump has even demonstrated his willingness to subject the US justice system and his opponents to his own will.

    The EU, distracted by internal conflicts and the Russian threat, also appears keen to keep Turkey onside. Turkey has Nato’s second-largest army and a Black Sea coastline, and is seeking to assume a key role in Europe’s security following Washington’s pivot away from the region. Across the Middle East, democracy often serves more as a bargaining chip than a genuine priority.

    Erdoğan has recently launched a “new Kurdish process”, aimed at reconciling with the PKK. This makes İmamoğlu’s arrest all the more surprising. The move may be intended to distance Kurdish voters from the CHP.

    Some citizens have attempted to protest the arrest despite a government ban on public gatherings. It remains to be seen how resilient the Turkish people will prove. Ultimately, Erdoğan’s success depends on the opposition’s ability to unite against him.

    Massimo D’Angelo does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Turkey: a favourable international climate is spurring Erdoğan’s crackdown on democracy – https://theconversation.com/turkey-a-favourable-international-climate-is-spurring-erdogans-crackdown-on-democracy-252694

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: England’s national curriculum is up for review – lessons from abroad show how it could work better for everyone

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Boylan, Professor of Education, Sheffield Hallam University

    arrowsmith2/Shutterstock

    A review of the English school curriculum is currently underway. The review’s recently released interim report makes clear that the current education system is not working well for all young people – in particular those with special educational needs and from more deprived backgrounds.

    However, the report does not recommend radical change. It proposes sticking with the curriculum approach brought in through reforms over the last decade or so under the previous Conservative government, but that these need to be built on to have a more inclusive approach.

    In 2014, there were significant changes in the national curriculum and to GCSE exams. These changes were branded a “knowledge-rich” curriculum, which meant more content to learn and a greater emphasis on memorising and final exams.

    Defenders of the changes, such as former schools minister Nick Gibb, say that the success of this curriculum is shown by improvements in England’s performance in the Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa). This is a global series of tests for 15-year-olds in maths, science and reading, taken in each country’s national language, that run usually every three years.

    In 2022, the most recent round of tests, England’s country rank was 14th for maths, 14th for science and 13th for reading out of 81 countries. This compares with 2009’s rankings of 28th for maths, 16th for science and 25th for reading.

    Understanding the stats

    The story is that Pisa tests dropped in the noughties due to a “skills-based curriculum” but have risen under a knowledge-rich curriculum. Pisa is important to this argument because the changes to national examinations in England mean GCSE exam results 20 years ago cannot be directly compared with GCSE results today. The curriculum review interim report notes that England’s results compare well internationally.

    However, this proof of the success of a knowledge-rich curriculum is not clear cut. To understand why, we need to look at the Pisa tests and how Pisa sampling works, the importance of not cherry-picking evidence, and what has really changed and not changed in the curriculum in England.

    Reading is one of the measures assessed by Pisa.
    PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock

    To compare two people’s knowledge or how the knowledge of the same person changes over time, the same or equivalent tests need to be used. But the Pisa tests taken in 2022 are not the same as the ones taken previously. Each time Pisa tests are taken, some items from the last test are kept but other items are added. There are various ways that the OECD, who run Pisa, try to make sure that tests are equivalent, but changes do make a difference.

    What’s more, Pisa is not usually a test of everyone in a country. The government’s official research report on the 2022 Pisa results states that higher performing pupils were overrepresented and disadvantaged pupils underrepresented.

    Adjusting for the bias in the sample, the OECD estimated that the 2022 result might have been up to eight points lower. Still above the OECD national averages but very similar to 2009, and so hardly the resounding success claimed by some.

    All the evidence

    More generally, we need to be careful that evidence isn’t being cherry-picked – choosing the evidence that supports a case rather than all the evidence. Any success in Pisa 2022 for England appears to be due to success for those already doing well. The gap between advantaged and disadvantaged pupils in England is not closing. This backs up the headline goal of the curriculum review – to improve the curriculum so it works better for everyone.

    Regardless of pupil performance, the pupil survey done alongside the test contained some worrying findings. Pupils reported the second lowest levels of life satisfaction across OECD countries, and headteachers said that difficulties recruiting teachers are negatively affecting pupils.

    Pisa scores were not the main reason for changing the curriculum in 2014 in England. They were used to justify the changes. But the amount of change is overstated, and this also undermines the claims made for the success of the current curriculum and also the fear that any change would undermine England’s comparative success in tests like Pisa.

    It is a myth that the before the 2014 curriculum reforms, England had a skills-based national curriculum. With colleagues, I looked at skills in the curriculum in England in the past and now and found that generic life skills were hardly mentioned before the reforms. Looking at maths, the content of the curriculum hasn’t changed much at all.

    We also compared the current curriculum in England with other countries that do better than England in Pisa and are also seen as examples of knowledge-rich systems. These include Singapore, the world leader, and Estonia, who are top in Europe. What we found is that those countries’ Pisa success is based on a curriculum that works better for everyone.

    Part of that comes from including aspects of a skills-based approach. These curricula balance a focus on knowledge with inclusion of skills, particularly digital literacy. They pay attention to making sure school is a good basis for vocational education, working life and taking part in society, and not only for further academic study.

    Taking a closer look at Pisa outcomes and the differences between our curriculum and other countries’ backs up the central message of the curriculum review’s interim report. The English system works well for some but not well for everyone, and could do better as an education system. It also points to practical lessons from countries like Singapore and Estonia about how vocational education and skills can be valued without losing sight of the importance of knowledge.

    Mark Boylan currently receives funding for research from the Education Endowment Foundation and the Department for Education

    – ref. England’s national curriculum is up for review – lessons from abroad show how it could work better for everyone – https://theconversation.com/englands-national-curriculum-is-up-for-review-lessons-from-abroad-show-how-it-could-work-better-for-everyone-248509

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Britain has almost 1 million young people not in work or education – here’s what evidence shows can change that

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Peter Urwin, Director, Centre for Employment Research, University of Westminster

    amenic181/Shutterstock

    Keir Starmer says the current benefits system is unsustainable, unfair and needs changing to avoid a wasted generation of young people who are not in education, employment or training (Neet).

    The government is concerned about the rising number of young people aged 16 to 24 who are Neet, which in the quarter to December 2024 was estimated at 987,000 in the UK. This is 13.4% of all young people in this age group. The increase, from around 11% in the period prior to the start of the pandemic, is linked to long-term illness among the economically inactive.

    About 40% of young people who are Neet are unemployed (not in work but looking for work) and the other 60% are inactive (not looking for work). Over the period of the pandemic, the number of young people with a mental health issue who are inactive because of long-term sickness has risen sharply.

    This is clearly concerning, but it is not entirely new. The number of 16- to 34-year-olds with a mental health condition, who are economically inactive because of long-term sickness, increased from around 100,000 in 2013 to about 180,000 at the start of the pandemic. The figure is now over 250,000. This long-term trend is part of a wider increase in disability prevalence across the UK’s ageing population.

    When discussing young people specifically, social policy experts such as myself use the label Neet, because “inactivity” also includes those in education and just using the youth unemployment rate does not capture the scale of the challenge.

    Young people (and particularly lower-attaining young people) tend to become Neet when they make the transition from school to post-16 learning, and then from learning to work. But the lack of robust data on these transitions means we still don’t fully understand it.

    When looked at historically, the current economic inactivity rate across age groups is not actually very high. The Neet rate among young people is a longstanding challenge, but it seems most responsive to the economic cycle – falling in good times and rising in bad. For instance, Neet rates for 18- to 24-year-olds last peaked in the period after the 2008 financial crisis.

    What will help get young people into work?

    The welfare reforms announced recently are aimed at addressing some of these long-term issues, specifically: restrictions to personal independence payment (PiP) eligibility and proposals to prevent under-22s from qualifying for incapacity benefits, the health element within universal credit.

    Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary, says these and other changes will save over £5 billion a year by the end of the decade. But this isn’t just about saving money. As the government has repeatedly said, it is also about getting young people into work.

    But trying to save both money and a generation seems a tall order. Can we do both?

    Reducing the level of benefits and limiting eligibility does save money and it will certainly force (rather than “help”) some people into work. But it is not an approach that will tackle the mental and physical health challenges this generation is facing.

    In discussion of “what works”, we cannot ignore the need to increase employment opportunities for those who are most at risk of becoming Neet. Ideally, this will come from improved economic growth driven by investment. This boosts productivity, creates new jobs and, importantly, drives up the quality of jobs and wages.

    However, UK productivity growth since the financial crisis has been weak, and when worse economic times come, we once again face the same challenge. Many young people, even if they are qualified to degree level, face barriers to progress. For instance, it is not easy to access many of the jobs that pay better wages, as they are in parts of the country where the cost of living is particularly high.

    Liz Kendall announces welfare reforms that will affect disability benefits and introduce more work support.
    House of Commons/Flickr, CC BY-ND

    It’s positive to see that the government is also investing in mental health support as part if its reforms, and that it has highlighted a number of evidence-based interventions. On mental health, for example, there is strong evidence that relatively light touch cognitive behavioural therapy and NHS Talking Therapies can improve employment outcomes.

    The welfare reform package also contains £1 billion a year for employment support. Kendall suggests that this could be used for programmes such as Work Choice, a voluntary employment programme for people who have a disability that prevents them from working or puts them at risk of losing their job.

    There is compelling evidence that those who took part in this programme before the pandemic experienced increased employment rates by between 11 and 12 percentage points. We also know that even short entry-level training for very low-skilled unemployed young people can have significant impacts, increasing employment rates by five percentage points.

    The government’s programme for change is evidence-based and they are to be commended in recognising and beginning to tackle long-standing issues of Neet among young people. The announcements on welfare will help, but we still need to tackle the root causes of high Neet rates in the UK.

    Youth transitions need to be better managed by all agencies of government, especially for those who have mental health challenges. There also need to be better jobs available for young people who become disillusioned with the education system.

    Growing the economy, together with the package of measures announced, will go some way to help. But some support needs to start even earlier. Young people who do not perform well in school have few education or employment options – this is the real tragedy of lost generations.

    Peter Urwin has received funding from UK Research Councils, the Nuffield Foundation and government departments such as DWP and DfE to investigate the challenges that young people face in making the transition from education to employment.

    – ref. Britain has almost 1 million young people not in work or education – here’s what evidence shows can change that – https://theconversation.com/britain-has-almost-1-million-young-people-not-in-work-or-education-heres-what-evidence-shows-can-change-that-252222

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: My team discovered ‘dark oxygen’ on the seafloor – now we’re trying to understand how it was made

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Andrew Sweetman, Professor of Seafloor Ecology and Biogeochemistry, Scottish Association for Marine Science

    Love Employee/Shutterstock

    Children are always asking “Why?” As they experience things for the first time, it’s natural to want to find out more. But as children grow into adults, they often dismiss something new that challenges their experience and understanding.

    This is what happened to me when I discovered a source of oxygen production in the deep sea – but ignored it for nine years.

    In 2013, I was conducting experiments to measure seafloor carbon cycling in the Clarion-Clipperton zone of the Pacific Ocean in 2013. I deployed a lander system (a remote-operated platform used to carry scientific equipment) to a depth of 4,000 metres and it came back with bubbles inside it. This was highly unusual, so two years later, when we returned to the same site, I took some optodes (oxygen sensors) with me.

    These are designed to measure oxygen consumption, but instead they were showing me oxygen production, the exact opposite of what I was expecting. Instead of questioning why I was getting these results, I dismissed the reading as the result of a faulty sensor.

    We are all taught from very early on in our education that oxygen is only produced through photosynthesis and that requires light – something in short supply at thousands of metres below the sea surface. It took me until 2021, when I measured oxygen production with a second method, that I realised we’d found something exceptional: dark oxygen – oxygen that’s produced without sunlight.

    In the summer of 2024, my team and I published our findings in the journal Nature Geoscience.



    Read more:
    Deep sea rocks suggest oxygen can be made without photosynthesis, deepening the mystery of life

    The discovery of dark oxygen has shifted our understanding of the deep sea and potentially life on Earth. But we still don’t know for sure how this oxygen is produced, and to what extent, and whether it is ecologically significant to the deep-sea ecosystems where it happens.

    In our paper, we suggest that the source could be polymetallic nodules, rock-like formations composed of lots of different metals, including manganese, which can create differences in electrical potential when interacting with seawater. We proposed that these could produce a voltage sufficient to split the seawater into hydrogen and oxygen. A new Chinese study has just shown that oxygen can potentially be produced when these manganese nodules are forming.

    More ‘why’ questions

    This year, thanks to funding from The Nippon Foundation, we will probe some of these scientific questions. If we show that oxygen production is possible in the absence of photosynthesis, this discovery would change the way we look at the possibility of life on other planets too.

    Indeed, we are already in conversation with experts at Nasa who believe that dark oxygen could reshape our understanding of how life might be sustained on other ocean worlds like Enceladus and Europa, moons that have ice crusts that limit sunlight penetration to the ocean below.

    We’re also in the process of analysing the potential of dark oxygen in the central Pacific Ocean and developing purpose-built and autonomous landers, or rigs. This will be the UK’s first opportunity to sample below depths of 6,000m. These vehicles will carry specialist instrumentation to depths of 11,000 metres, where the pressure is more than one tonne per square centimetre (that’s equivalent to 100 elephants sitting on top of you).

    We will investigate whether hydrogen is released during the creation of dark oxygen, and whether it is used as an energy source for an unusually large community of microbes in parts of the deep ocean. We also want to find out more about how climate change might impact biological activity in the deep sea.

    This project is the first of its kind to directly explore these processes. My team will be able to study the deep seafloor into the hadal zone, an area which reaches 6,000 – 11,000 metres depth and makes up around 45% of the entire ocean. This habitat, full of deep ocean trenches, is still poorly understood.

    The discovery of dark oxygen clearly has potential implications for the deep-sea mining industry. Deep-sea mining would extract polymetallic nodules that contain metals such as manganese, nickel and cobalt, which are required to produce lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and mobile phones.

    We don’t yet know how an industry such as this would affect the seabed, but our research over the coming years should help to answer many of the questions posed and perhaps better inform where the seabed should be more protected from deep-sea mining. One thing is for sure: whatever we find, I’ll try and feed my childlike sense of enthusiasm and be sure to ask “Why?”

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Andrew Sweetman receives funding from The Nippon Foundation.

    – ref. My team discovered ‘dark oxygen’ on the seafloor – now we’re trying to understand how it was made – https://theconversation.com/my-team-discovered-dark-oxygen-on-the-seafloor-now-were-trying-to-understand-how-it-was-made-250445

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Thousands of satellites are due to burn up in the atmosphere every year – damaging the ozone layer and changing the climate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Minkwan Kim, Associate Professor of Astronautics, University of Southampton

    The world’s first artificial satellite, the Soviet Union’s Sputnik 1, was launched in October 1957. Just three months later, it fell out of orbit. As Sputnik hit the upper atmosphere at incredible speed, the friction would have caused it to heat up and almost entirely burn off. Some small remnants of the satellite would have remained in the upper atmosphere, like smoke and ash after a fire: humankind’s first space debris.

    Seven decades on, scientists like us are only just beginning to piece together how this space debris might be damaging the ozone layer, the climate and even human health. We still don’t know how much of this debris the atmosphere can sustain before it causes significant environmental harm.

    Today, the number of objects in orbit has surged to over 28,000. More than 11,000 of these are active satellites, with most belonging to commercial “mega-constellations”: groups of satellites that work together to deliver internet access. Examples include Starlink, operated by Elon Musk’s SpaceX, Amazon’s Kuiper or China’s Guowang.

    Operators follow a 25-year rule: at this point, a satellite’s mission is deemed to have ended and it is lowered into the atmosphere where gravity and friction kicks in. While this helps clear space, it results in thousands of satellites burning up in the atmosphere each year.

    A new problem

    Until recently, the high-altitude destruction of satellites was not a concern. The amount of spacecraft debris was relatively small compared to debris from naturally occurring meteorites.

    But by 2030, the global satellite population is expected to exceed 60,000, and thousands of spacecraft will be re-entering the atmosphere and burning up each year. With each satellite weighing as much as a small car, it all adds up. We are conducting research on the problem, and our early estimates are that around 3,500 tonnes of aerosols will be added to the atmosphere each year by 2033.

    Aerosols are tiny particles suspended in the air. They can play an important role in Earth’s climate, either cooling or warming it depending on their type and colour. Light-coloured particles generally reflect incoming sunlight and cause cooling, while darker particles, usually containing soot, absorb sunlight and make the atmosphere warmer.

    Some of these aerosols are particularly worrying. In 2023, US scientists discovered particles containing various metals, including aluminium and lithium, in the stratosphere. These particles originated from spacecraft and debris such as the disposable rocket boosters attached to them. When spacecraft burn up during re-entry, they release chemicals such as metal oxides and nitrogen oxides.

    The full composition of these emissions remains unclear. But key pollutants found in satellite debris are known to affect the atmosphere’s thermal balance, potentially driving global climate change.

    Aluminium oxide, for instance, could actually help cool the Earth by reflecting away sunlight. In fact, some geoengineering scientists have proposed injecting tiny particles of it into the stratosphere to keep global warming in check.

    It’s way too early to say exactly how much cooling this will cause. And we don’t know how messing with Earth’s energy balance like this might trigger unintended consequences including extreme weather.

    But we do know how the process works. And we know the amount of aluminium oxides from satellite re-entries is now approaching levels produced by meteorites – and will soon far exceed it. At a bare minimum, this is something we must track closely.

    Reopening the ozone hole?

    Aluminium oxide and other pollutants also act as catalysts in the breakdown of the ozone layer, a section of the stratosphere that shields the Earth from the Sun’s radiation.

    Rare ‘polar stratospheric clouds’, like these in Norway, are linked to ozone depletion. Satellite debris can cause these clouds to form more often.
    Romija / shutterstock

    In the 1970s and 1980s, the ozone layer was devastated by a group of chemicals known as CFCs that were widely used in fridges, spray cans and cleaning products. The 1987 Montreal protocol phased out CFCs and other ozone-depleting substances, and led to significant progress in reversing the damage.

    According to the World Economic Forum, the economic benefits of protecting the ozone layer add up to around US$2.2 trillion (£1.7 trillion) in total. To take one example, a thinner ozone layer increases exposure to harmful ultra-violet (UV) radiation, leading to a higher incidence of skin cancer and cataracts.

    The re-entry of satellites and space debris therefore may not only affect the Earth’s atmosphere but also pose serious risks to global climate and public health. More critically, unlike ground-based pollutants, pollutants from old spacecraft can persist in the upper atmosphere for decades or centuries, remaining undetected until their effects on ozone concentrations become evident.

    New solutions required

    History provides us with valuable lessons, allowing us to learn from past mistakes. Despite the success of the Montreal protocol, the ozone layer is not expected to fully recover until 2066, meaning it will take an 80-year effort to restore what was harmed in just a few decades.

    Nasa astronaut Don Pettit captured SpaceX Starlink satellites swarming like ‘cosmic fireflies’ in this time-lapse.

    The disaster of 21st-century climate change was set in motion when humankind began burning fossil fuels on a global scale in the mid-19th century. We are still working to resolve this problem by reducing carbon emissions. We must not add further environmental damage through satellite debris accumulating at the edge of Earth’s atmosphere.

    There’s no simple solution, however. If we want the benefits of worldwide networks of satellites then we really do have to let them burn off in the atmosphere. It’s the only cost-effective disposal method at present.

    For now, the space industry’s contribution to ozone depletion and climate change is relatively small. But, as space activity continues to grow exponentially, we cannot afford to overlook the consequences of satellite debris.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    Minkwan Kim receives funding from the UK Space Agency (UK Space Agency Contract No: UKSAG23A_00100), which is entitled as “Beyond the Burning: Researching and Implementing Policy Solutions for Sustainable Debris Ablation”

    Ian Williams receives funding from EPSRC and AHRC.

    – ref. Thousands of satellites are due to burn up in the atmosphere every year – damaging the ozone layer and changing the climate – https://theconversation.com/thousands-of-satellites-are-due-to-burn-up-in-the-atmosphere-every-year-damaging-the-ozone-layer-and-changing-the-climate-251845

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Can books be bad for you? Only if you’re a ‘bad reader’ like Don Quixote

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Karen Attar, Research Fellow in Institute of English Studies, School of Advanced Study, University of London

    An illustration from an edition of Don Quixote where the eponymous protagonist goes mad from reading. Wikimedia, CC BY

    Books as a backdrop in a portrait or an interview lend gravitas. They stand for literacy, for education, for a way to open the mind, develop the imagination and get on in life. But not all books are considered to convey such benefits.

    Opinions about which books are worthy and which are not have dogged fiction. Which are frivolous nonsense, sure to pollute the mind, and which are worthy intellectual pursuits? Also, are there books which are just too dangerous to read?

    Is Toni Morrison’s The Bluest Eye sure to influence unwanted behaviour? Are there those who can read a book like Niccolò Machiavelli’s The Prince and not see it as real advice of how any immoral act is justified if they lead to power and glory?

    In short, are there bad books, or are there just bad readers?

    The theme of bad books versus bad readers runs through my recent publication Books, Reading and Libraries in Fiction, which I wrote with Institute of English Studies Reader Andrew Nash. It starts with Don Quixote (1605), which is considered the first modern novel in Europe and an enduring classic of world literature.

    By the beginning of the 17th century, medieval chivalric romances about knights riding around the countryside seeking adventures and saving damsels in distress were distinctly old-fashioned. Don Quixote did not realise that. He spent all his time reading such romances, neglecting all other duties, to the extent that he went mad.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Believing the stories implicitly, he set off in search of knightly adventures. Don Quixote is the quintessential bad reader who takes fiction literally and who focuses on the activity of fighting instead of the metaphorical value of striving for good against evil. It’s the uncritical way children may read, but not the way we expect adults to.

    It is because he was a man that Don Quixote had the purchasing power to surround himself with books (there were no public libraries in those days) and travel around. So, it has more often been women who have typically been portrayed as poor readers, over-identifying with the heroines of novels, reading books that are bad for them, or reading when they should be doing something else.

    The Female Quixote, a little-known novel by Charlotte Lennox (1752), draws consciously on Don Quixote as heroine Arabella expects life to reflect the French novels she has read. At the end a doctor must explain to her the difference between fiction and reality. The reader of The Female Quixote is expected to have a lot more sense and distance than the reader within the novel. They are supposed to learn from Arabella’s silliness.

    Jane Austen, who we know loved reading novels, has most to say about relegating fiction to its place. She does it famously in a gentle, high-spirited way through her heroine in Northanger Abbey (1817), Catherine Morland. This young woman gorges on sensational gothic romances and this fiction starts to seep into her perception of reality.

    On one particularly stormy gothic night in a strange country house, she finds a roll of paper in a drawer. “What is it?” she thinks. Her candle goes out and she tosses and turns until early morning, her imagination leading her to terrifying conclusions. In the cold light of morning, she discovers that the paper is only an old laundry bill.

    The worst case of “bad reading” in our book occurred in a 1855 novella Faust by Russian novelist Ivan Turgenev. The story deals with a young woman whose mother had banned the reading of fiction. The young male narrator introduces her to the first part of Goethe’s drama Faust. Overwhelmed by the emotions it arouses, unequipped to deal with them from any former contact with imaginative literature, the heroine falls ill and dies.

    Like her fictitious predecessors, she over-identifies with fiction. In her case she suffers because, had she read fiction when she was younger, she would have been more robust now. Typically in fiction of the past, fortunate women had wise men to guide them and their reading. Vera in Turgenev’s tale is rather unfortunate in her guide’s lack of discrimination.

    Does it mean that Faust, considered by many the pinnacle of German literature, is a “bad” book? No. Neither are gothic romances. We know from her letters that Jane Austen devoured novels, and that she liked Ann Radcliffe, one of the most prominent Gothic writers. Also, medieval chivalric romances can be inspiring.

    The challenge for characters in fiction, as for us, is to read with distance and discernment. It helps to start young, unlike Turgenev’s Vera. We must read to understand and follow worthy principles, rather than blindly imitating the behaviour of characters in novels. But most of all, we must read all sorts of fiction. And then we shall be reading thoughtfully, wisely and well.

    Karen Attar does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Can books be bad for you? Only if you’re a ‘bad reader’ like Don Quixote – https://theconversation.com/can-books-be-bad-for-you-only-if-youre-a-bad-reader-like-don-quixote-252428

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The animal alliances reshaping our understanding of intelligence

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alexandra Schnell, Research Fellow in Comparative Psychology, University of Cambridge

    Cleaner wrasse form unlikely alliances with other fish Azrael3141/Shutterstock

    In nature, interactions between species are often framed in terms of survival — those that hunt and those that are hunted. But research is showing some animals form surprising partnerships, reshaping scientists’ ideas about how intelligence evolves in the animal kingdom.

    Take Octavia and Finn, a striking duo hunting along a coral reef. I observed this pair while exploring a research site on the Great Barrier Reef as part of a project to understand complex behaviour in the wild. Octavia moves with fluid grace, slipping between the rocks, while Finn zips through the water with bursts of speed. They work as a team. Each of them brings a unique skill to the hunt – Octavia with her dexterity, Finn with his quick strikes. Octavia is a day octopus, and Finn is a coral trout.

    This kind of collaboration isn’t unique to the ocean — on land, other species have also developed remarkable partnerships. Take, for instance, the relationship between the greater honeyguide bird (Indicator indicator) and humans. Honeyguides call and flutter to lead humans to bee nests. Once the humans harvest the honey, the bird swoops in for the leftovers, beeswax and larvae – a treat that it couldn’t easily access without help. The two species engage in a kind of cross-species conversation, each relying on the other’s skills.

    Other collaborations show how different species can use trust and deception to their advantage. The fork-tailed drongo (Dicrurus adsimilis) acts as a sentinel for meerkats (Suricata suricatta), issuing alarm calls to warn them of approaching predators. Drongos sometimes give false alarms, sending meerkats scattering so the bird can steal their abandoned food. Even so, the relationship is beneficial for both parties: meerkats gain an extra set of eyes, while the drongo secures an occasional meal.

    In the underwater world, similar dynamics are at play. Cleaner wrasse (Labroides dimidiatus) remove parasites from the bodies of larger “client” fish, such as groupers and manta rays. Client fish will congregate at underwater “cleaning stations”, often atop coral heads, and will even queue up for their turn. But these partnerships aren’t always fair. Sometimes, cleaner wrasse sneak a nibble of their client’s protective mucus instead. When this happens, the client fish can cut the interaction short and leave. This disruption suggests that these relationships involve strategic decision-making.

    Perhaps the most captivating example of marine collaboration happens between octopuses and fish. Initially, scientists assumed fish took advantage of octopuses, snatching prey they flushed out. But thanks to advances in tracking technology, a richer, more cooperative dynamic is emerging. Combining data from two cameras allows researchers to study highly accurate movement patterns. One of my collaborators applied this method to study the octopus-fish partnership, published in Nature Ecology & Evolution in 2024.

    The day octopus keeps its partner in line.
    Shpatak/Shutterstock

    The day octopus (Octopus cyanea) collaborates with fish such as coral trout (Plectropomus spp.) and goatfish (Parupeneus spp.) during hunts. The 2024 study found these fish don’t just follow the octopus, they participate in the hunt. Scientists have even observed octopuses “punching” fish that aren’t pulling their weight. Fish like the coral trout produce signals by using their bodies. They perform a “head-stand”, tipping their heads downward and hovering above crevices to indicate hidden prey. This prompts the octopus to flush it out with its dexterous arms. Although octopuses are solitary animals, these brief partnerships reveal a degree of social sophistication.

    A blend of ecological and cognitive factors probably underpins these partnerships. Dietary overlap plays a crucial role, as partnerships are more likely to form when animals of different species feed on similar prey.

    Cognitive abilities are equally important. For these partnerships to work, both species must recognise each other as reliable partners. Octopuses demonstrate behavioural flexibility, adapting their tactics in real time, based on their partner’s actions. Fish show self-control by holding back until the octopus has flushed prey from hiding.

    Habitat complexity also shapes the partnership. Coral reefs, with their maze of crevices, make hunting alone difficult). Timing may also help make these partnerships work. Since both species are active during the day they can capitalise on daylight to communicate using visual signals.

    Rethinking animal intelligence

    It remains unclear whether octopuses truly understand the meaning behind their partner fish signals or follow them instinctively. But either way the interaction hints at a surprising level of cognitive sophistication. Research in animal cognition suggests that behaviour such as perspective-taking – (understanding that others may have different views) and theory of mind (the ability to attribute thoughts, beliefs, or intentions to others) – could be involved in referential signals.

    These abilities are typically seen in social animals (such as chimpanzees, crows, or jays) that live in groups or among family members, where understanding one another’s intentions can offer a real survival advantage. Animal alliances are challenging the traditional view in research that intelligence and social skills develop solely through interactions within the same species.

    This idea broadens the way in which scientists think about social intelligence, showing that the capacity to collaborate can arise wherever there’s something to be gained from working together. A project funded by the National Geographic Society through the Meridian Grant Program aims to push these ideas further. A team of behavioural ecologists, comparative psychologists (including myself), robotics researchers, and underwater storytellers are developing a robotic fish to interact with day octopuses. By controlling one partner in the interaction, we can test responses and decode the signals exchanged between octopuses and their fish collaborators.

    Just like the octopus and fish, this project is a reminder that some tasks can only be achieved through collaboration. No single species, or team, can do it alone.

    Alexandra Schnell receives funding from the National Geographic Society.

    – ref. The animal alliances reshaping our understanding of intelligence – https://theconversation.com/the-animal-alliances-reshaping-our-understanding-of-intelligence-251301

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Glastonbury is as popular than ever, but complaints about the lineup reveal its generational challenge

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Adrian York, Senior Lecturer in Commercial Music Performance, University of Westminster

    Unless you’ve been hiding under a rock since 1970 you will be aware of the five-day Glastonbury festival held every June (apart from “fallow” years to rest the land and the organisers), near Pilton in Somerset. Glastonbury is as much a pillar of the English summer as tennis at Wimbledon or opera at Glyndebourne.

    It’s a white, middle-class rite of passage and an easy win for people wishing peer approval and the cultural capital that comes with the price of a ticket. It’s expensive and exclusive and the booking policy reflects its audience.

    This year’s headliners include indie pop-rock darlings The 1975, angry girl supreme Olivia Rodrigo, old-school superstar Neil Young with his band the Chrome Hearts, with family favourite Rod Stewart filling the Sunday teatime “legend” slot.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Other acts filling the 100-plus stages include Brat popster Charli XCX, English hip-hopper Loyle Carner, original bad boys The Prodigy (without original frontman Keith Flint, RIP) plus Raye, Doechii, Noah Kahan, Gracie Abrams, and old pros Alanis Morissette, En Vogue and Gary Numan.

    With tickets costing £378.50 for Glastonbury 2025, are the 210,000 attendees getting value for money?

    A Reddit thread titled “Glastonbury 2025 lineup, thoughts?”, gives a flavour of some commonly aired opinions. Disappointed customer praf973 “tried to get tickets but was unsuccessful. I’m not bitter, but the line up isn’t really looking that great.” Another commenter, Whilst-I-was-forced, declared: “Nothing to get excited about. It’s gone too commercial and sterile.”

    Ok_Handle_3530 gave a different perspective: “This line-up looks … great, people are too hard to please.” ShankSpencer opined, “There are no good line-ups any more. No one young listens to bands any more, so there are no headline acts.”

    The exceptionally popular festival sold out in 35 minutes this year even before the artists had been announced, raising the question: has Glastonbury become a victim of its own success?

    Last year there were issues with overcrowding at some of the smaller stages creating issues for fans wanting to see acts such as the Sugababes. Some sets were even being stopped early because of crowd surges.

    But what’s really behind these complaints about the lineup and are they justified? There’s been a changing of the guard as the veteran generation of performers from the 1960s, 1970s and 1980s step back from performing because they have retired, are too ill or have died.

    There doesn’t seem to be enough credible stadium acts from the 1990s onwards to fill their shoes, leading to a lack of enthusiasm for the current offerings. The new generation of acts have an opportunity to impress, but many of them don’t have the volume of hits that legacy acts such as Elton John or Paul McCartney provide – nor the cross-generational appeal.

    There is also a growing sense that the cultural importance of the rock band is fading. Gen Z has far more in the way of distractions than previous generations with myriad forms of social media and digital entertainment. With so much competition for their attention, the tribal allegiances that bands used to command may feel dated and irrelevant to many younger people.

    On their single Guys, one of this year’s headliners, The 1975 trill: “The moment that we started a band was the best thing that ever happened.” Perhaps lead singer Matty Healy’s love affair with the mythology of rock’n’roll is no longer widely shared.

    Glastonbury has also been criticised for a lack of diversity. Clubbing magazine Mixmag made the point that in 2023, “the number of male acts playing this year’s Glastonbury Festival is nearly double that of female acts”.

    Similarly, the festival’s lineup and audience are predominantly white and fail to adequately reflect the British music industry. Though there have been a few black bands and artists headlining over the years, it wasn’t until 2019 that the first solo black British performer headlined on the Pyramid stage, with an unforgettable set from London rapper Stormzy in a black Union Jack stab vest designed by Banksy.

    For Glastonbury to move with the times, a more diverse booking policy is needed to widen the audience demographic and the festival’s appeal. Despite having enjoyed the event, mixed-heritage music journalist and academic Jenessa Williams noted: “I was still left with the feeling that certain punters saw black artists as a mockable novelty, a by-product to tolerate rather than truly a piece of the event’s heart and soul.”

    And then there’s the issue of cost. According to a 2024 report, two-thirds of UK adults feel that music festivals are becoming too expensive. Popular music artists have had to pivot towards live events for income generation because of the poor returns from streaming compared to selling albums.

    So are major tours and larger festivals such as Glastonbury sucking revenue out of the music economy? Research shows that while big high-profile event tours are making millions, at the other end of the spectrum grassroots venues – where new talent is incubated – are buckling under a lack of support and the prohibitive costs of running their operations.

    Glastonbury won’t be making an appearance in 2026, the next fallow year for rest and recovery. This will create an opportunity for organiser Emily Eavis to reflect on some of the more problematical issues the festival faces, from diversity in the audience and artists, to the sustainability of the talent pipeline.

    Maybe the last word should go to American rapper Azealia Banks commenting on this year’s festival lineup: “Glastonbury is kinda cooked.”

    Adrian York does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Glastonbury is as popular than ever, but complaints about the lineup reveal its generational challenge – https://theconversation.com/glastonbury-is-as-popular-than-ever-but-complaints-about-the-lineup-reveal-its-generational-challenge-252588

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Canada’s Africa strategy is a landmark moment for Canada-Africa relations, but still needs work

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By David J Hornsby, Professor of International Affairs and the Vice-Provost and Associate Vice-President (Academic), Carleton University

    For the first time in its history, Canada has unveiled a comprehensive Africa strategy, marking a significant milestone in the Canadian approach to engaging with the African continent.

    Launched on March 6 by Liberal MP Rob Oliphant, the parliamentary secretary to the foreign affairs minister, the strategy represents a crucial step towards a more coherent and intentional relationship with Africa.

    This development is worthy of praise for several reasons.

    The strategy’s strengths

    First, it demonstrates Canada’s recognition of Africa’s growing importance on the global stage. It acknowledges the need for Canada to work closely with African states and organizations in multilateral forums such as the United Nations, the G20 and the Francophonie.

    It also positions Canada not only as a partner in enhancing Africa’s voice in global affairs, but also as an ally in advancing the Canadian government’s strategic interests abroad.

    The strategy’s development process was remarkably inclusive, with more than 600 stakeholder submissions. This consultative approach not only ensured a diverse range of perspectives, but also promotes accountability in the strategy’s implementation.

    Finally, the initiative’s broad scope is commendable. By intentionally crafting the strategy to encompass a wide array of African partners — from the African Union to diaspora groups in Canada — the government has created a framework that allows various African nations and organizations to see themselves reflected in the partnership.

    Remaining questions

    However, as with any significant policy development, there are areas for improvement and questions to be addressed. These include:

    Resource allocation: While the strategy sets ambitious goals, it’s unclear how these will be achieved without new funding.

    Although the argument can be made that the government has the option to reconfigure existing funding to align with broader policy shifts, that would leave major gaps in current development programming. The government must provide more specific details about funding and, just as importantly, metrics for implementation.

    Competitive landscape: The strategy doesn’t fully acknowledge Canada’s current position in Africa. While it identifies increased competition from familiar players like China, the European Union and Russia, as well as a growing array of competitors like Brazil, Turkey and the Gulf states, it doesn’t confront the degree to which, relatively speaking, Canada has lost ground.

    This needs to be acknowledged alongside Canada’s residual reputational strength, rooted in a history of supporting democratic transitions for African nations — particularly during the anti-apartheid struggle in South Africa, but also during numerous peacekeeping engagements.



    Read more:
    Brian Mulroney’s tough stand against apartheid is one of his most important legacies

    Investments in developmental projects related to education and health in Africa have led to Canada garnering a reputation as a constructive and responsive collaborator on African issues. That said, Canada’s reputation in terms of mining and other extractive activities on the continent is an unhelpful counterpoint.

    Canada must strongly position itself as a state that can be trusted to champion African issues while forging partnerships based on mutual interest and respect in the fast-changing global competitive environment.

    Innovation and education: Despite the strategy’s mention of engaging youth and diaspora communities, it’s unclear on how to do this. A crucial way to connect with youth in particular is to enhance education connections and expand the links between universities and science and technological innovation institutions in Canada and African states.

    Dual degrees, funded collaborative research projects, student exchanges and scholarships are all tried-and-tested mechanisms to foster cross-cultural understandings that bind societies together.

    A sustainable Canada-Africa strategy must see educational and scientific partnerships, training and knowledge circulation as cornerstones for success.

    It would be a missed opportunity if the government fails to use this blueprint to leverage Canada’s extensive educational and scientific assets to generate innovative ideas that support the strategy’s implementation. This approach could also create opportunities for Canadian and African youth to build a strong foundation for a lasting and meaningful Canada-Africa relationship in the future.



    Read more:
    Why international students could be a critical factor in bolstering Canada’s economic resilience

    Ethical considerations: The strategy doesn’t adequately address issues related to the mining sector and the need for more ethical practices.

    Given Canada is touted as a mining superpower in Africa, a clear commitment to supporting human rights-centred and community development-oriented mining practices would go a long way to sustaining Canada’s interest in the extractive sector in Africa. This would also enhance its overall reputation on the continent.

    Furthermore, the ethics of Canada’s immigration regime and the often punitive approach to giving out temporary visas to African travellers is starkly missing from the strategy.

    It’s critical in terms of Canada’s future engagements and relations with African nations to recognize the current system is broken and considered overly intrusive by Africans. If Canada is serious about learning from Africa and forming equitable partnerships based on mutual respect, it cannot mete out indignities at the border.

    High-level commitment: The launch of the strategy by a parliamentary secretary, rather than the foreign affairs minister or the prime minister, raises questions about the perceived importance of this strategy at the highest levels of government.

    The launch was diplomatically underwhelming, with no invitations extended to the Canadian media or the African diplomatic community in Canada. This created the impression that the government was either already distancing itself from the strategy, or was anxious to manage expectations.

    Given that the launch of the strategy coincided with the Independence day of Ghana, one of the first African countries that Canada established official diplomatic relations with, the Canadian government should have seized on this historic moment to send a strong diplomatic message to the African continent.

    Substantial starting point

    Despite these concerns, the Africa strategy represents a significant and promising starting point.

    It provides a coherent, multidimensional and multi-purpose framework for Canada’s engagement with Africa. It synthesizes ongoing initiatives, sets intentions for future collaborations and seeks to move beyond paternalistic motivations to build an enhanced Canada-Africa relationship based on trust and respect.

    The strategy is realistic not only about Canada’s own limitations and needs, but also about the complexities of building partnerships with a large and diverse continent. It highlights humanitarian and security priorities while also emphasizing economic and political opportunities in Africa. The combination of humanitarian concerns with strategic interests signals a shift toward a more balanced and consistent approach towards the continent.



    Read more:
    Why Canada must seize the moment and launch its long-awaited Africa strategy

    As we move forward, the Canadian government must address the strategy’s shortcomings and provide more concrete plans for its implementation.

    Nonetheless, this moment deserves recognition. Canada has taken an important first step towards a more strategic, intentional and mutually beneficial relationship with Africa. It’s now up to policymakers, businesses, the academic community and civil society to build upon this foundation and turn this strategy into tangible, positive outcomes for both Canada and its African partners.

    David Black receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.

    Thomas Kwasi Tieku receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council.

    David J Hornsby and Edward Akuffo do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Canada’s Africa strategy is a landmark moment for Canada-Africa relations, but still needs work – https://theconversation.com/canadas-africa-strategy-is-a-landmark-moment-for-canada-africa-relations-but-still-needs-work-252367

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Nigeria’s oil-rich Rivers State under emergency: sending in the army isn’t the answer

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Al Chukwuma Okoli, Reader (Associate Professor) Department of Political Science, Federal University of Lafia, Nigeria, Federal University Lafia

    President Bola Tinubu recently declared a state of emergency in Nigeria’s oil-rich Rivers State, in the country’s south-south region.

    Prior to this decision, governance in Rivers State was practically paralysed as a result of a power struggle between the Governor, Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, now the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

    Rivers is at the heart of Nigeria’s once restive oil producing Niger Delta region and the emergency rule declaration was pronounced following reports of explosions rocking oil pipelines. Security scholar Al Chukwuma Okoli unpacks the implications of this development for security in the oil region previously known for militancy.

    What does declaring a state of emergency mean?

    The president has placed the governor, the deputy governor and the legislative arm of government on a six months suspension. He has appointed Vice Admiral Ibok-Étè Ibas, a retired Navy chief, as the state administrator. This means democratic institutions, except courts, have been suspended in Rivers State.

    Section 305 of Nigeria’s 1999 constitution empowers the president to declare a state of emergency when:

    • the federation is at war

    • the federation is in imminent danger of invasion or involvement in a state of war

    • there is actual breakdown of public order and public safety in any part of the country requiring extraordinary measures to avert danger

    • there is an occurrence or imminent danger of the occurrence of any disaster or natural calamity

    • there is any danger which clearly constitutes a threat to the existence of the federation

    • The Governor of a State may, with the sanction of a resolution supported by two-thirds majority of the state House of Assembly, request the President to issue a Proclamation of a state of emergency in the State

    The president can also make the decision if the governor of the affected state fails within a reasonable time to make a request.

    Is the state of emergency an effective response to the recent bombings?

    The state of emergency is a response to a dire internal security situation in which there is actual or threat of a breakdown of law and order. It applies also if security of lives and property is no longer guaranteed.

    In other words there’s been a major breach of governability in the area.

    There is an argument that the civil and security situations in Rivers State – and the civil unrest amid wanton destruction and vandalisation of oil and gas installations – calls for urgent intervention given the pivotal role of petroleum sector in sustaining the Nigerian economy.

    Oil and gas account for 40% of Nigerian government revenues and for around 92% of the value of all exports. Rivers State is a key oil producing area and hosts several major oil companies and critical oil infrastructure.

    Nevertheless, the emergency approach to the security crisis in Rivers State is, at best, problematic. Apart from amounting to unnecessary securitisation of politics and governance, it’s not capable of addressing the political undercurrents of the crisis.

    At the heart of the problem is the unresolved – or badly addressed – partisan and personality clashes between the suspended Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his estranged predecessor and political godfather, Nyesom Wike, Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja.

    The suspension of the Governor and the State Assembly may be strategically expedient. But it will fail to address the fundamental issues at stake without a concomitant suspension of Wike as the Federal Capital Territory Minister.

    This is because at the heart of the entire crisis is a power struggle between Wike and Fubara. As the immediate past governor of Rivers State, Wike influenced the emergence of Fubara as his successor during the 2023 general elections.

    They fell apart soon after the election. Wike who had become a minister and close ally of President Tinubu is believed to have influenced his loyalists in the Rivers State House of Assembly to oppose the governor. They were in the process of impeaching the governor before the state of emergency was imposed.

    Wike and Fubara’s power tussle has also led to a gradual return of Niger Delta militancy with former militants taking sides with the two political gladiators.

    Given this background, the emergency rule in Rivers state will be associated with consolidated military operations to quell the rising militancy. This, too, is likely to escalate the crisis.

    In handling the Rivers crisis, President Tinubu should have considered some historical precedents. Negotiations have fared a lot better than the military options in the region.

    The most recent armed conflict in the region arose in the early 1990s over tensions between foreign oil corporations and Niger Delta ethnic groups who feel cheated in the way their natural resources are exploited. The militant groups became notorious for their violent attacks on oil infrastructure and kidnapping of oil workers.

    Military response to this crisis did not seem to yield results until the Nigerian government introduced a disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration programme, known locally as the amnesty program. This was introduced in 2009 and was aimed at members of armed militant groups that were present in the Niger Delta region.

    Following this intervention, there has been relative peace in the recent past. Essentially, the emergency rule in Rivers state is likely to bring about a dramatic backlash in the sustenance of the gains of post-Amnesty peace-building in the Niger-Delta.

    What are the security implications of explosions rocking oil installations?

    Destruction of petroleum installations will bring about significant setback in the efficiency and functionality of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry. It will trigger production cuts and revenue losses capable of affecting the country’s petroleum earnings.

    This will be devastating considering the place of the industry in the national economy.

    In addition, the vandalisation of oil pipelines and other installations will lead to widespread environmental degradation and disaster. In turn this will affect the livelihood and ecological security of local communities.

    As experience from government’s use of force in the region in the early 1990s have shown, the declaration of a state of emergency may result in the renewal of piracy, cultism, hostage-taking, and kidnapping. This will in turn be a setback for the gains of peace building already recorded in the area since the introduction of the Niger Delta Amnesty program in 2009.

    Lastly, one of the most likely outcomes of the emergency rule will be the return of inter-militant fighting and vendetta. Already, lines are drawn between the militants aligned with Wike and Fubara.

    Such a development may dovetail into a major inter gang war with devastating implications for peace and development of the Niger Delta region.

    What approach should the appointed administrator take?

    The aftermath of the emergency declaration in Rivers State is dicey.

    To make progress with his mandate – which is to restore order in the state – the administrator needs to adopt a completely depoliticised approach to the partisan dispute that’s led to the current crisis. He has to initiate a credible peace process that is holistic and capable of alleviating the fears and doubts of parties.

    The administrator has to adopt a strictly non-partisan, multi-stakeholder and inclusive approach to dealing with the crisis. All the aggrieved parties must be treated fairly and reasonably.

    There must be a conscious effort at buildings bridges at local levels. These should be aimed at eliciting the buy-in of critical stakeholders and interested parties such as the militant groups and supporters of Wike and Fubara.

    Lastly, the administrator has to be conscious and sensitive to the local issues and sensibilities that are at the root of the crisis.

    Local problem require local remedies. An inward looking solution that carries everyone along, addresses the underlying issues and grievances, restores trust and goodwill, and transcends partisan divides, is the only route that will bring about a lasting solution to the Rivers state.

    Al Chukwuma Okoli teaches Political Science at Federal University of Lafia, Nigeria. An Associate Professor of Security Governance, Okoli has consulted for Center for Democracy and Development, Yaradua Foundation, Partners West Africa (Nigeria), CLEEN Foundation, African Union, UN Women, United Nations Development Programme, etc..He has received funding from the Tertiary Education Fund (Nigeria). A triple Laureate of Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA), Okoli s a member of Conflict Research Network West Africa and Amnesty International.

    – ref. Nigeria’s oil-rich Rivers State under emergency: sending in the army isn’t the answer – https://theconversation.com/nigerias-oil-rich-rivers-state-under-emergency-sending-in-the-army-isnt-the-answer-252672

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: South Africa hasn’t given individuals access to the African Court – this needs to be fixed

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Frans Viljoen, Professor of International Human Rights Law, Centre for Human Rights, and acting SARChI Chair in International Constitutional Law, University of Pretoria

    US President Donald Trump’s second term has brought South Africa’s domestic human rights record into stark international prominence. Based on misinformation, Trump’s anti-South African campaign seems designed to weaken South Africa’s image as an international torch bearer for human rights.

    At the heart of the issue lies American resentment about South Africa’s submission in December 2023 to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) of a case alleging that Israel has violated the 1948 Genocide Convention.

    South Africa has won accolades for its principled and courageous submission of the ICJ case. Nevertheless, its role in advancing human rights on the African continent has been more ambiguous.

    My research has focused on the African regional human rights architecture, set up under the African Union (AU) as a continental bulwark for human rights. The primary continental judicial body for human rights is the African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights, based in Arusha, Tanzania.

    South Africa has fallen short in one key aspect when it comes to championing human rights on the continent: it has failed to sign up to accepting direct individual access to the court. This matters because almost all cases submitted to and decided by the court have reached it in this way.

    South Africa’s role in African human rights system

    One of the first human rights treaties South Africa formally accepted after its full embrace of democracy in 1994 is the core African Union human rights treaty, the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights. Since then, it has made significant contributions to the charter monitoring body, the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights.

    Two prominent South African human rights experts served as members of the 11-member continental human rights watchdog. Professor Barney Pityana, who was also the first chair of the South African Human Rights Commission, served between 1997 and 2003; and Advocate Pansy Tlakula, who had been the chairperson of the Independent Electoral Commission, served from 2005 to 2017.

    When the idea of establishing a continental human rights court to complement the protective mandate of the African Commission was flagged, South Africa played a pivotal role by stepping forward to host the inaugural drafting meeting for the enabling instrument, bringing together experts from around the continent to Cape Town in 1995.

    This was the first building block that culminated in the adoption of an optional protocol to the African Charter on Human and Peoples’ Rights on the establishment of an African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights, allowing for the creation of an African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights.

    South Africa was also one of the first states to accept the court’s jurisdiction in 2002. Today, 34 of the 55 African Union member states have formally accepted the protocol, thereby agreeing to the court’s jurisdiction. Two South Africans have been part of the 11 judges of the court.

    Since it became operational, the African Court has adjudicated several human rights cases, including those affecting marginalised groups such as persons with albinism in Tanzania.

    In these cases, the court has been instrumental in defining the scope of human rights guarantees under the charter and related treaties. It also defined appropriate measures that states should take to respect, protect and fulfil these rights.

    A missing piece

    South Africa falls short when it comes to the most crucial measure of the African Court – the acceptance of direct individual access.

    A case by an individual or group against a state party to the charter can end up before the court in one of two ways.

    First, a case can reach the court indirectly, via the commission. In this scenario, an individual initially submits a case alleging human rights violations by a state to the commission. The commission then has a discretion to refer the case to the African Court. This access route applies to all 34 states that have become party to the court protocol. However, this route has yielded a very small number of cases – three in total – being submitted to the court.

    Complex reasons account for this. One of them seems to be linked to an unfortunate institutional turf war between the commission and the court, manifesting itself in an unwillingness on the part of the commission to have its findings ‘reviewed’ by the court.

    Second, a case can reach the court directly, when an individual or nongovernmental organisation (NGO), after exhausting domestic remedies, submits a case directly. But this is only possible if a state has made a declaration to accept the competence of individuals and NGOs with observer status with the commission to directly access the court.

    So far, the majority of cases handled by the African Court reached it along this avenue. Around 260 judgements have been delivered in respect of direct access cases.

    Of the 34 states parties accepting the court’s jurisdiction, only seven currently allow their nationals direct access to the court. They are Burkina Faso, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, Malawi, Mali, Niger and The Gambia. While 12 states have made the optional declaration, five of them have subsequently changed their mind, and withdrawn their optional acceptance of direct access to the court. Rwanda was the first to withdraw its acceptance, in 2016. The most recent withdrawal, on 7 March 2025, was by Tunisia.

    The reasons for withdrawal differ. But a common thread is the aggravation of governments for being held accountable by the court for human rights violations, often of the most marginalised persons, or of political opponents of the ruling government.

    The most immediate consequence of these withdrawals has been a drop in the number of cases submitted to the African Court. In 2024, only 15 new cases were submitted. There were 66 in 2019.

    Why direct individual access matters

    It’s not clear why South Africa has not (yet) accepted direct access to the court. But there are compelling reasons for it to do so.

    First, allowing direct access from South African courts to the African Court would serve to complement domestic human rights protection by allowing for redress and reparations beyond the national level. This will be in line with the South African constitution. It will also be in line with the principle of subsidiarity, in terms of which recourse to the African Court will only be possible after all domestic remedies had been exhausted.

    Second, bolstering the effectiveness of the court is an investment in African institutions, and will underscore South Africa’s full embrace of its African identity. And if it accepts the court’s direct access jurisdiction, it will become the AU member state with the largest population and economy to do so.

    The right moment

    The court protocol, which South Africa has ratified, requires that a declaration accepting direct individual access be made. The relevant provision (article 34(6)) stipulates that state parties to the court protocol are required to (“shall”) make such a declaration. What is left to the discretion of states is the timing. According to the protocol, these states “shall” do so “at the time of the ratification of this protocol or any time thereafter”.

    There has never been a more opportune and important time for South Africa to make this declaration.

    The African Court on Human and Peoples’ Rights risks being underused and receding into irrelevance. This is happening in a landscape increasingly inimical to rights and rights institutions. South Africa should signal to other states that it accepts independent judicial scrutiny of its human rights record as the logical end result of having helped create the African Court.

    Frans Viljoen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. South Africa hasn’t given individuals access to the African Court – this needs to be fixed – https://theconversation.com/south-africa-hasnt-given-individuals-access-to-the-african-court-this-needs-to-be-fixed-252749

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Starmer’s plan to ‘build baby build’ risks more American-style car-dominated sprawl

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By James White, Professor of Planning and Urban Design, University of Glasgow

    The UK’s Labour government has promised to “take an axe to red tape” through “bold reforms to the planning system”. It hopes to kickstart economic growth by generating the “biggest building boom in a generation”.

    It seems that the aim to “build baby build”, in Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s words, trumps all else. However, this raises important questions about the government’s parallel ambition to reach net zero by 2050.

    As researchers of urban planning, we worry that plans to hand more power to developers will simply result in more low-density, car-dependent suburbs. These developments are cheap and efficient to build, which is why they underpin the profits of the larger housebuilders.

    But research has consistently demonstrated they are land hungry, poorly designed, unsustainable and damaging to nature.

    The UK instead needs a fundamental rethink of its approach to housing and development as part of the transition to a low carbon future. Any future urban growth must be achieved while simultaneously reducing the amount of land, energy and materials used.

    Redesigning existing towns and cities

    We recently launched a research project, Urban Retrofit, to explore how the UK’s towns and cities can be redesigned to support the transition to net zero. The good news is that we already know a lot about how to make places more environmentally sustainable.

    It is about renovating buildings to improve energy efficiency, like adding insulation and installing things like heat pumps. It includes building at higher densities, using brownfield land better, and adapting streets to encourage safer walking and cycling.

    We can make it easier to travel on public transport and seamlessly transfer between buses, trains and trams. And we can plant indigenous trees and plants to provide wildlife habitats and cool urban areas, and slow down rainwater to help prevent floods.

    Skyscrapers and renovated warehouses in Manchester.
    Alejandro M. Ferrer / shutterstock

    A retrofitting approach to urban development can also have wider benefits, such as bringing derelict buildings back into use or creating spaces to grow food. It is important that these efforts do not exacerbate existing inequalities, though.

    If higher density neighbourhoods are created in places with high house prices, for example, it will be essential to guarantee people can still afford to live in them. This will mean building more social housing.

    Some of the initiatives outlined in Labour’s planning reforms recognise the need to build more sustainably. These include support for some more affordable housing, and higher density development allowed “near transport hubs” and “central to local communities”. It also includes financial packages for local authorities seeking to “unlock housing on brownfield sites”.

    Low density and car-dependent

    The bad news is that there is little evidence that greener urban growth can be realised without further harming the environment. The necessary transformation certainly won’t happen without curbing the development industry’s appetite for the energy-inefficient, low-density and car-dependent neighbourhoods, retail parks and workplaces that already sprawl around the edges of urban areas.

    And that won’t be possible while politicians fall back on blaming an already under-resourced planning system, rather than tackling this deeper problem in our approach to development.

    Policy support for brownfield development is unlikely to convince housebuilders to take on these financially risky sites. This is especially true if, under Labour’s other proposals, local authorities will be required to grant developers planning permission on previously undeveloped land.

    The government is already redefining parts of the green belt as grey belt to make more land available for development. And much of that land will be in precisely those locations developers prefer, on the edges of settlements where costs are usually lower, profits are higher and sites are relatively similar and easier to develop.

    Building new homes here is easy and cheap – but worse for the environment.
    Nick Beer / shutterstock

    As the planning system is pushed to make ever more land available for development, Labour’s reforms will embolden the industry to continue seeking permission for unsustainable urban expansion.

    An array of landowners, developers, land agents, lawyers, consultants, builders and shareholders will likely make a lot of money. But more people will be locked into unsustainable lifestyles while time, resources and energy are focused away from the challenges of adapting our existing settlements.

    As our project is exploring, there is an urgent need to first retrofit within existing towns and cities, especially in suburban areas that were built for the automobile age.

    This will require much more positive ambitions for the planning system and big changes to the ways the development industry operates. It will also require a willingness to ask much more searching questions about the sustainability of going all out for growth.

    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 40,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.

    James White receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. He is Principal Investigator of Urban Retrofit (ES/Z50278/1) and Co-Investigator of the UK Collaborative Centre for Housing Evidence (ES/W012278/1).

    Andy Inch receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. He is Co-investigator on both Urban Retrofit (ES/Z502728/1) and another project called Planning for Nature (ES/Z503459/1)

    – ref. Starmer’s plan to ‘build baby build’ risks more American-style car-dominated sprawl – https://theconversation.com/starmers-plan-to-build-baby-build-risks-more-american-style-car-dominated-sprawl-251316

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Our new study indicates maternal exposure to relatively low fluoride levels may affect intelligence in children

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maria Kippler, Associate Professor, Institute of Environmental Medicine, Karolinska Institutet

    Alena Matrosova/Shutterstock

    Fluoride occurs naturally in drinking water, especially well water, but the concentrations are generally low in public water supplies. In some countries, such as the US, Canada, UK, Australia and Ireland, fluoride is commonly added to the public water supply at around 0.7mg per litre to prevent tooth decay. The World Health Organization guideline for fluoride in drinking water is 1.5mg per litre.

    Given the concern that fluoride in drinking water might affect children’s intelligence, the addition of this mineral to drinking water has become controversial. Consensus among researchers about the precise nature of the link between fluoridation and intelligence is lacking and the existing evidence is widely debated.

    The US National Toxicology Program’s, part of the Department of Health and Human Services, most recent evaluation states with moderate confidence that higher fluoride exposure (above the World Health Organization guideline) is consistently associated with decreased child intelligence, while they conclude that more research is needed to understand the effects at lower fluoride exposure levels.



    Read more:
    Fluoride: very high levels in water associated with cognitive impairment in children

    A new study my colleagues and I conducted found that relatively low exposure to fluoride during the foetal stage (as a result of the mother’s exposure to fluoride) or in the child’s early years may affect their intelligence.

    For the study, which was published in Environmental Health Perspectives, we followed 500 mothers and their children in rural Bangladesh, where fluoride occurs naturally in the drinking water, to investigate the link between early life exposure to fluoride and children’s intelligence.

    Psychologists evaluated the children’s cognitive abilities at five and ten years of age, using standard IQ tests. The exposure to fluoride in the mothers during pregnancy and children at five and ten years of age was determined by measuring the concentrations in urine samples. Urine samples reflect the continuing exposure from all sources, such as drinking water, food and dental products (such as toothpaste and mouthwash). Urine samples are the most accurate way of determining fluoride exposure in people.

    Increasing urinary concentrations of fluoride in pregnant women were linked to decreasing intelligence in their children at five and ten. Even the lowest fluoride concentrations were associated with decreases in the children’s cognition. The average maternal urinary fluoride concentration was 0.63mg per litre, with the vast majority of concentrations falling between 0.26 and 1.4mg per litre.

    The children’s average urinary fluoride concentrations at five and ten years of age (0.62 and 0.66mg per litre, respectively) were similar to those of their mothers during pregnancy.

    Among children who had more than 0.72mg per litre of fluoride in their urine by age ten, increasing urinary fluoride concentrations were associated with lower intelligence. In children with less fluoride in their urine, there were no consistent associations with their intelligence. So childhood exposure seemed to be less detrimental than the exposure during early foetal development.

    Out of the cognitive abilities measured, associations of both maternal and child urinary fluoride concentrations were most pronounced with nonverbal reasoning and verbal abilities. There were no consistent differences between boys and girls.

    We didn’t find a link between fluoride concentrations in the urine of the five-year-olds and their intelligence. This could be due to the shorter exposure time or that urinary fluoride concentrations aren’t as reliable in younger children owing to greater variations in how much fluoride is taken up and stored in the body, particularly in the bones.

    As well as the children’s urinary fluoride concentration, the fluoride concentrations in drinking water were measured at the age of ten for a random subset of the studied children. The average was 0.20mg per litre, which is well below the WHO guideline value for fluoride in drinking water.

    The concentrations in drinking water tracked with the concentrations in urine, confirming that water is a main source of exposure. Still, we couldn’t exclude the possibility that there were contributions from other sources. Fluoride in toothpaste is important for preventing tooth decay, but it’s important to encourage small children not to swallow the toothpaste during brushing.

    Limitations

    A limitation of our study is that we measured fluoride only in one urine sample at each time point. As a large fraction of the absorbed fluoride is excreted in some hours, one measurement may give uncertain levels for the individual. However, as the exposure largely comes from water it can be assumed that the intake is rather constant over time.

    Another limitation is that the intelligence tests that were used have not been standardised for the Bangladeshi population. As a result, we did not convert the results to IQ scores (with an average of 100) that can be compared across populations.

    Our findings support previous well-designed studies from Canada and Mexico, where exposure levels obtained below the existing WHO guideline for fluoride in drinking water were associated with impaired cognitive development.

    Similar findings were recently provided when combining multiple studies from several countries. It was noted that at low exposure levels, findings with cognitive development were more conclusive among studies estimating fluoride exposure via urine than among studies that relied on concentrations in drinking water only. This highlights that imprecise estimation of the exposure can lead to difficulties in assessing the true impact on cognitive development.

    Taken together, the concern about the effect of fluoride on children’s intelligence at low exposure levels is further strengthened by our study. In particular exposure during foetal development, but also prolonged childhood exposure seems to be of concern.

    Still, as this is an observational study, no firm conclusions can be drawn about causalities. There is still a need for more well-designed research studies on low-level fluoride exposure and cognitive development, in combination with experimental studies to determine the possible molecular mechanisms driving it. Collectively, this will create a robust basis for reviewing fluoride health risks and thresholds for drinking water, foods, and dental care products, especially for children.

    Maria Kippler receives funding from Swedish Research Council and the Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning.

    – ref. Our new study indicates maternal exposure to relatively low fluoride levels may affect intelligence in children – https://theconversation.com/our-new-study-indicates-maternal-exposure-to-relatively-low-fluoride-levels-may-affect-intelligence-in-children-251193

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Grateful Dead at 60: three folklore tales that inspired the band’s music

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Max Bowden, PhD Candidate, impact and influence of the Grateful Dead, University of Essex

    Dead & Company, the latest and most enduring post-Grateful Dead project, is about to take to the stage for the second time at the Las Vegas Sphere. The lineup contains original Grateful Dead rhythm guitarist Bob Weir, and one of two original drummers, Mickey Hart. They’re joined by the singer-songwriter John Mayer on lead guitar, Oteil Burbridge on bass and Jay lane on second drums.

    It has now been 60 years since the Grateful Dead formed. The US rock band first played at Ken Kesey’s “acid tests” in La Honda, California, in 1965. There, attendees would consume large doses of LSD and spend the night enjoying psychedelic projections and the Dead’s intermittent musical stylings.

    Before this, a number of the band members had well-established careers in the Californian Bay Area folk scene. Lead guitarist Jerry Garcia and lyricist Robert Hunter performed folk and bluegrass together in the early 1960s.

    Looking for something good? Cut through the noise with a carefully curated selection of the latest releases, live events and exhibitions, straight to your inbox every fortnight, on Fridays. Sign up here.

    Mother McCree’s Uptown Jug Champions was another project that involved a number of artists who would go on to form the Grateful Dead. The band’s innate chaos was already clear. Playing an early gig at a coffee house, they were described by the host as “just a panic to watch”.

    This chaotic approach is something that continued. Speaking to Rolling Stone in 1971, Garcia said: “Hunter and I always had this thing where we liked to muddy the folk tradition by adding our own versions of songs … taking a well-founded tradition and putting in something that’s totally looped”.

    This revitalising understanding of folk adds an element of Grateful Dead fun, contributing to some of their most enduring and interesting songs. Here are three examples of the folk tales that inspired their music.

    1. Stagger Lee (1978)

    On Christmas Day 1895, two Texans named Lee “Stack” Shelton and Billy Lyons had a disagreement, which ended with Billy snatching Stack’s hat, and Stack shooting him to get it back. This simple story blossomed over time, often richly embellished, into song, folk tale and theatre.

    Hunter and the Dead turned the classic folk tale of murder on its head. In most songs about the incident, the focus is on the slightly renamed “Stagger Lee” and “Billy DeLyon”. Most renditions focus on the details and morality of the murder, or the nuance of Stagger as a proto-gangster, and a victim of racist policing.

    Grateful Dead performing Stagger Lee in 1978.

    The version that the Grateful Dead released is different, with only the first verse dedicated to the murder itself. The body of the song centres the journey of widowed Deliah DeLyon, now in pursuit of justice.

    She first pleads with a policeman for help saying “you’ll arrest the girls for turning tricks, but you’re scared of Stagger Lee,” before going to the bar herself, emasculating Stagger Lee, and dragging him to city hall.

    These changes attack hyper-masculine versions of the song and suggest an alternate perspective that prioritises the previously unheard.

    2. Casey Jones (1970)

    Casey Jones (1863-1900) was a renowned train engineer from Mississippi. He was known for his punctuality and skill, but was killed in a wreck after missing a signal in dense fog.

    Jones was the only fatality in the train crash and his actions are said to have saved the passengers and the train’s fireman. Just like Stagger Lee, this folk hero has been sung about from many different perspectives.

    In the one folk rendition, covered by Pete Seeger, Jones was a union scab, crashing his train though a slavish obedience to his bosses. In Johnny Cash’s song, he was a true hero. But in Grateful Dead’s song, he was a cocaine-addicted speed freak.

    Grateful Dead performing Casey Jones in 1977.

    By bringing Casey Jones into the 1970s, the Dead sought to use folk to give a contemporary moral warning. Hunter philosophises throughout, referencing both the story of the crash and his own shortsightedness when he writes “got two good eyes, but we still don’t see”.

    The Grateful Dead’s approach to folk is at once firmly rooted in tradition and with one foot in the future.

    3. Terrapin Station (1977)

    The first part of one of the Dead’s most famous musical suites is an adaptation of The Lady of Carlisle.

    This folk song tells a story of a lady choosing between two suitors – a soldier and a sailor. To decide, she throws her fan into a lion’s den and challenges the men to retrieve it.

    In traditional versions of the song the lady is fragile, becoming catatonic after delivering her challenge, but Hunter’s changes to the song elevate her. This section of the suite, Lady with a Fan, weaves this into an overarching narrative about the illuminating power of stories.

    Grateful Dead performing Terrapin Station in 1977.

    In the song, a speaker is retelling the story of The Lady of Carlisle while a magical fire conjures images as they happen. Here we see the protagonist emboldened, her “eyes alight with glowing hair,” and much more directly telling the men “I will not forgive you, if you will not take the chance”.

    After the sailor retrieves the fan, the meta-narrative challenges the listener. “You decide if he was wise,” the narrator sings, telling us “the storyteller makes no choice”. Hunter and the Dead again seek to use folklore to explore narrative and stories, their powerful influence on the world and our perspective.

    This visionary approach to folk helped ground the band’s musical catalogue in history, elevating folk music and offering curious listeners threads that lead into the narrative past.

    Max Bowden received a bursary from the Folklore Society.

    – ref. Grateful Dead at 60: three folklore tales that inspired the band’s music – https://theconversation.com/grateful-dead-at-60-three-folklore-tales-that-inspired-the-bands-music-249798

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: UK businesses face a big tax hike. So what does it mean for workers and the economy?

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Phil Tomlinson, Professor of Industrial Strategy, Co-Director Centre for Governance, Regulation and Industrial Strategy (CGR&IS), University of Bath

    The hospitality sector will be among the most seriously affected. cktravels.com/Shutterstock

    Employers in the UK are about to be hit with a hefty tax rise. From April 1 2025, their national insurance contributions are rising to 15% on salaries above £5,000, instead of 13.8% on salaries above £9,100.

    Unsurprisingly, business owners are not happy. Since the change was announced last autumn, many have complained about the effect it will have on their ability to invest and hire staff. Care homes, supermarkets and GP surgeries are among those who have voiced their concerns, and a recent survey found that 54% anticipate raising prices.

    Some industries will be affected more than others. The hospitality sector, for example, expects around £1 billion in additional costs (alongside an inflation-busting minimum wage increase, which also comes into play on April 1). Partly because of these changes, manufacturing confidence has already taken a hit, contributing to a decline in overall GDP since the start of the year.

    But Rachel Reeves, the UK’s chancellor, has not budged, arguing that she needs to raise £40 billion in tax revenue to fund infrastructure and public services, and to address what she calls a “black hole” in the public finances.

    She had previously condemned the Conservative government’s employer national insurance hike in 2022 as a “tax on jobs”. Yet a Labour party manifesto pledge not to raise personal income tax, employees’ national insurance or VAT, has effectively left her with few options.

    As a result, the burden has been placed firmly on businesses. But in the UK’s sluggish economy, any added cost pressures could push struggling firms into pay freezes and cutbacks.

    Others may seek ways to mitigate the national insurance rise through creative accounting, by offering salary sacrifice schemes (such as cycle-to-work or electric vehicle purchase programmes) instead of direct wage increases.

    Some firms will no doubt explore other cost-cutting measures, such as reducing office space by encouraging more remote work. Or they may shift towards gig economy models, where they employ workers as “subcontractors” rather than as salaried staff. Larger firms might even move jobs abroad.

    Productivity push?

    But there could be an upside to all of this. Despite being politically sensitive, there is an economic argument for raising employment costs as a way of driving innovation and productivity. And some enterprising businesses may respond to the financial pressure by investing in labour-saving technology.

    For years the UK has relied on a low-wage, loosely regulated labour market. This has allowed businesses to hire and fire with ease, but has also led to persistently low levels of investment and weak productivity growth.

    Put simply, UK workers are often using outdated tools and equipment, making them less productive compared with their international competitors. Over time, this depresses wages, lowers economic growth (and living standards) and limits funding (through tax raised) for public services.

    Raising employment costs may now incentivise businesses to invest in automation and efficiency-enhancing technologies. The feasibility of this shift depends on what economists call the “elasticity of substitution” – the ease with which labour can be replaced by technology while maintaining (or improving) output.

    And evidence suggests automation and AI can drive productivity improvements even in traditionally labour-intensive industries. For instance, in social care, AI may be used to create personalised treatment plans, while robots could provide patients with physical, social and cognitive support.

    So far, the UK care sector has been slow to adopt such technology, lagging behind the likes of Australia, the Netherlands and Japan.

    Robotic care.
    Stock-Asso/Shutterstock

    Similarly, in hospitality, there are opportunities to use AI for predictive ordering and automated waste management. This could help hotels and restaurants reduce food waste, streamline supply chains and improve their profitability. Some businesses are also exploring robotic concierge services and automated customer interactions.

    Incentives and stability

    To ensure businesses embrace these productivity-boosting innovations, government support is essential. A well-designed industrial strategy is still needed to position the UK at the forefront of the “industry 4.0” technological revolution.



    Read more:
    The UK’s new industrial strategy is welcome, but here’s what is missing

    And, critically, businesses also need confidence in the broader economic outlook. Yet with continuing geopolitical uncertainty, trade tensions and fears of a global recession, the future feels fragile.

    The government’s challenge lies in encouraging businesses to adopt a strategy which ensures that investment in innovation actually materialises, and the benefits emerge swiftly. If businesses fail to adapt, or if productivity gains take too long, then the national insurance hike could just result in higher costs without any boost to growth.

    Ultimately, success hinges on whether businesses view this tax rise as a burden to absorb or an incentive to modernise. In the coming months and years, the government will need to show it is willing to offer businesses more support – and improve their confidence levels – if there is to be a revival in investment and productivity.

    Phil Tomlinson receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) for Made Smarter Innovation: Centre for People-Led Digitalisation, and from the Innovation and Research Caucus (IRC).

    David Bailey receives funding from the ESRC’s UK in a Changing Europe Programme.

    – ref. UK businesses face a big tax hike. So what does it mean for workers and the economy? – https://theconversation.com/uk-businesses-face-a-big-tax-hike-so-what-does-it-mean-for-workers-and-the-economy-252325

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Debate over H-1B visas shines spotlight on US tech worker shortages

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Moshe Y. Vardi, Professor of Computer Science, Rice University

    Babson College graduate students from India type on their computers in Wellesley, Mass., on June 30, 2016. AP Photo/Charles Krupa

    A heated debate has recently erupted between two groups of supporters of President Donald Trump. The dispute concerns the H-1B visa system, the program that allows U.S. employers to hire skilled foreign workers in specialty occupations – mostly in the tech industry.

    On the one hand, there are people like Donald Trump’s former strategist Steve Bannon, who has called the H-1B program a “total and complete scam.” On the other, there are tech tycoons like Elon Musk who think skilled foreign workers are crucial to the U.S. tech sector.

    The H-1B visa program is subject to an annual limit of new visas it can issue, which sits at 65,000 per fiscal year. There is also an additional annual quota of 20,000 H-1B visas for highly skilled international students who have a proven ability to succeed academically in the United States.

    The H-1B program is the primary vehicle for international graduate students at U.S. universities to stay and work in the United States after graduation. At Rice University, where I work, much of STEM research is carried out by international graduate students. The same goes for most American research-intensive universities.

    As a computer science professor – and an immigrant – who studies the interaction between computing and society, I believe the debate over H-1B overlooks some important questions: Why does the U.S. rely so heavily on foreign workers for the tech industry, and why is it not able to develop a homegrown tech workforce?

    The US as a global talent magnet

    The U.S. has been a magnet for global scientific talent since before World War II.

    Many of the scientists who helped develop the atomic bomb were European refugees. After World War II, U.S. policies such as the Fulbright Program expanded opportunities for international educational exchange.

    Attracting international students to the U.S. has had positive results.

    Among Americans who have won the Nobel Prize in chemistry, medicine or physics since 2000, 40% have been immigrants.

    In 2023, U.S.-born Louis Brus, left, shared the Nobel Prize in chemistry with U.S. immigrants Alexei Ekimov, born in the former USSR, and Moungi Bawendi, born in France.
    AP Photo

    Tech industry giants Apple, Amazon, Facebook and Google were all founded by first- or second-generation immigrants. Furthermore, immigrants have founded more than half of the nation’s billion-dollar startups since 2018.

    Stemming the inflow of students

    Restricting foreign graduate students’ path to U.S. employment, as some prominent Trump supporters have called for, could significantly reduce the number of international graduate students in U.S. universities.

    About 80% of graduate students in American computer science and engineering programs – roughly 18,000 students in 2023 – are international students.

    The loss of international doctoral students would significantly diminish the research capability of graduate programs in science and engineering. After all, doctoral students, supervised by principal investigators, carry out the bulk of research in science and engineering in U.S. universities.

    It must be emphasized that international students make a significant contribution to U.S. research output. For example, scientists born outside the U.S. played key roles in the development of the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines. So making the U.S. less attractive to international graduate students in science and engineering would hurt U.S. research competitiveness.

    Computing Ph.D. graduates are in high demand. The economy needs them, so the lack of an adequate domestic pipeline seems puzzling.

    Where have US students gone?

    So, why is there such a reliance on foreign students for U.S. science and engineering? And why hasn’t America created an adequate pipeline of U.S.-born students for its technical workforce?

    After discussions with many colleagues, I have found that there are simply not enough qualified domestic doctoral applicants to fill the needs of their doctoral programs.

    In 2023, for example, U.S. computer science doctoral programs admitted about 3,400 new students, 63% of whom were foreign.

    It seems as if the doctoral career track is simply not attractive enough to many U.S. undergrad computer science students. But why?

    The top annual salary in Silicon Valley for new computer science graduates can reach US$115,000. Bachelor’s degree holders in computing from Rice University have told me that until recently – before economic uncertainty shook the industry – they were getting starting annual salaries as high as $150,000 in Silicon Valley.

    Doctoral students in research universities, in contrast, do not receive a salary. Instead, they get a stipend. These vary slightly from school to school, but they typically pay less than $40,000 annually. The opportunity cost of pursuing a doctorate is, thus, up to $100,000 per year. And obtaining a doctorate typically takes six years.

    So, pursuing a doctorate is not an economically viable decision for many Americans. The reality is that a doctoral degree opens new career options to its holder, but most bachelor’s degree holders do not see beyond the economics. Yet academic computing research is crucial to the success of Silicon Valley.

    A 2016 analysis of the information technology sectors with a large economic impact shows that academic research plays an instrumental role in their development.

    Why so little?

    The U.S. is locked in a cold war with China focused mostly on technological dominance. So maintaining its research-and-development edge is in the national interest.

    Yet the U.S. has declined to make the requisite investment in research. For example, the National Science Foundation’s annual budget for computer and information science and engineering is around $1 billion. In contrast, annual research-and-development expenses for Alphabet, Google’s parent company, have been close to $50 billion for the past decade.

    Universities are paying doctoral students so little because they cannot afford to pay more.

    Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai speaks at a Google I/O event in Mountain View, Calif., on May 14, 2024.
    AP Photo/Jeff Chiu

    But instead of acknowledging the existence of this problem and trying to address it, the U.S. has found a way to meet its academic research needs by recruiting and admitting international students. The steady stream of highly qualified international applicants has allowed the U.S. to ignore the inadequacy of the domestic doctoral pipeline.

    The current debate about the H-1B visa system provides the U.S. with an opportunity for introspection.

    Yet the news from Washington, D.C., about massive budget cuts coming to the National Science Foundation seems to suggest the federal government is about to take an acute problem and turn it into a crisis.

    Moshe Y. Vardi receives funding from the National Science Foundation and the US Office of Naval Research.

    – ref. Debate over H-1B visas shines spotlight on US tech worker shortages – https://theconversation.com/debate-over-h-1b-visas-shines-spotlight-on-us-tech-worker-shortages-248711

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Scientists in Antarctica: why they’re there and what they’ve found

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By David William Hedding, Associate Professor in Geography, University of South Africa

    A media storm blew up in mid-March 2025 when a researcher at South Africa’s isolated Sanae IV base in Antarctica accused one of its nine team members of becoming violent.

    The Conversation Africa asked geomorphologist David William Hedding, who has previously carried out research from the frozen continent, about the work researchers do in Antarctica, what conditions are like and why it matters.

    What do researchers focus on when they’re working in Antarctica?

    Currently, the main focus of research in the Antarctic revolves around climate change because the White Continent is a good barometer for changes in global cycles. It has a unique and fragile environment. It’s an extreme climate which makes it highly sensitive to any changes in global climate and atmospheric conditions. Importantly, the Antarctic remains relatively untouched by humans, so we are able to study processes and responses of natural systems.

    Also, the geographic location of Antarctic enables science that is less suitable elsewhere on the planet. An example of this is the work on space weather (primarily disturbances to the Earth’s magnetic field caused by solar activity). Studying space weather is significant because the magnetic field of the Earth can impact communication platforms, technology, infrastructure and even human health.

    How many countries have teams working there? Where does South Africa fit in?

    Currently, about 30 countries have research stations in the Antarctic but these bases serve a far wider community of researchers. Collaboration is a key component of research in the Antarctic because many study sites are isolated, logistics are a challenge and resources are typically limited.

    The South African base in Antarctica, named SANAE IV usually has between 10 and 12 researchers and base personnel. This research station is situated on a nunatak (a mountain piercing through the ice) in Western Dronning Maud Land. It is an extremely remote location approximately 220km inland from the ice-shelf.

    The researchers and base personnel remain in Antarctica for approximately 15 months working through the cold and dark winter months.

    What have been some of the biggest ‘finds’?

    The biggest research finding from the Antarctic was the discovery of the ozone hole in 1985 by scientists from the British Antarctic Survey. This discovery led to the creation and implementation of the Montreal Protocol, a treaty to phase out chlorofluorocarbons (synthetic chemical compounds composed of chlorine, fluorine, and carbon) which destroy ozone. This was a major breakthrough in terms of slowly healing the ozone layer.

    The second most significant piece of research to come from the Antarctic has been the use of ice cores to reconstruct past climates. Ice cores preserve air bubbles which provide a wealth of information about the conditions of the atmosphere over time. Importantly, ice cores provide an uninterrupted and detailed window into the past 1.2 million years. This is important because only by understanding past climates and the earth’s responses to those changes are we able to predict future responses. This is significant because of the imminent threats resulting from anthropogenic (human-induced) climate change.

    What conditions do scientists work under?

    Conducting research in the Antarctic is extremely difficult for three primary reasons: remoteness, the cold and daylight.

    The remoteness of many study sites makes it difficult to reach. Distances are vast from the limited number of bases in the Antarctic. Thus, logistics for science in the Antarctic is a major challenge and requires collaboration and planning. For example, the geologists from the University of Johannesburg, who work from the SANAE IV base in Antarctica, often spend weeks in the field collecting samples. They travel significant distances via snow mobile and remain self-sufficient while conducting science in tough conditions.

    These tough conditions relate specifically to the cold. Most science only occurs in the austral summer months when temperatures become marginally bearable. Also, the summer season only provides a short window in which to operate because access to Antarctic by sea is limited by extent and thickness of the sea ice.

    Lastly, during summer there is 24 hours of daylight which lengthens the working day but these conditions are also short-lived.

    Why it is important to do scientific work in the area?

    The Antarctic is intricately linked to global systems and plays a major role in influencing these systems.

    For example, climate change will cause significant melting of land-based ice in Antarctica which when added to the oceans will cause sea-level rise and disruptions to global oceanic currents. Therefore, it is critical that we obtain a better understanding of how responses of terrestrial systems, such as the Antarctic, will impact oceanic systems because ultimately changes in ocean currents will impact the oceanic food web.

    In the context of climate change, sea-level rise is a major concern as it will have global impacts for society, so it is critical that the impacts are investigated to enable society to build resilience and adapt.

    David William Hedding receives funding from the National Research Foundation.

    – ref. Scientists in Antarctica: why they’re there and what they’ve found – https://theconversation.com/scientists-in-antarctica-why-theyre-there-and-what-theyve-found-252752

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump’s phone call with Putin fails to deliver a full ceasefire – here’s what could happen next

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Stefan Wolff, Professor of International Security, University of Birmingham

    After more than two hours on the phone on Tuesday, March 17, the US president, Donald Trump, and his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, agreed only to confidence-building measures, not a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia. The two leaders came away from the call having agreed on a limited prisoner exchange, a suspension of attacks on energy infrastructure, and the creation of working groups to explore further steps towards a ceasefire and ultimately a peace agreement, a proposal which Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky has since agreed to in his call with the US president.

    A less charitable way of looking at the outcome of the second call between the two presidents since Trump returned to the White House would be that the ball is now back in America’s court. Putin made it crystal clear to Trump that he is not (yet) in the mood for any compromise.

    This is hardly surprising given recent events.

    The US has pressured Ukraine mercilessly into accepting a proposal for a 30-day ceasefire, which Trump hoped Russia would also agree to. But apart from a vague statement by Trump that he might consider sanctions against Russia, he has so far seemed unwilling to contemplate putting any meaningful equivalent pressure on Putin.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    On the ground, Russia has gained the upper hand in the Kursk region where Ukrainian troops have ceded most of the territory they captured after a surprise offensive last summer. Once Putin’s forces, assisted by thousands of North Korean soldiers, have succeeded in driving the Ukrainians out of Russia, Kyiv will have lost its most valuable bargaining chip in negotiations with Moscow.

    Meanwhile, Russia has also made further gains on the frontlines inside Ukraine especially in parts of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. These are two of the four regions (the other two are Donetsk and Luhansk) that Putin has claimed for Russia in their entirety since sham referendums in September 2022, despite not yet having full control of them.

    If Russia were to capture yet more Ukrainian territory, Putin would probably find it even easier to convince Trump that his demands are reasonable. The fact that Trump already hinted at a “dividing of assets”, including the nuclear power plant at Zaporizhzhia – Europe’s largest before its forced shutdown in September 2022 – is a worrying indication of how far the Russian president has already pushed the envelope.

    Ukraine war: territory occupied by Russia as at March 18 2025.
    Institute for the Study of War

    But a deal solely between Russia and the US is not going to work. In that sense, time is not only on Putin’s side but also on Zelensky’s.

    The Russian readout of the call between the two presidents claimed that they had discussed “the complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the provision of intelligence information to Kyiv” as a key condition for moving forward – something that Trump subsequently denied in an interview with Fox. This means that, for now, Kyiv is likely to continue to receive US aid.

    Europe at the ready

    Perhaps more importantly in the long term, Europe is also doubling down on support for Ukraine. While Trump and Putin were discussing a carve-up of Ukraine over the phone, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, left no doubt on where the EU stands.

    In a speech at the Royal Danish Military Academy foreshadowing the publication of the commission’s Readiness 2030 white paper on bolstering European defences, she recommitted to developing European “capabilities to have credible deterrence” against a hostile Russia.

    A few hours later, the German parliament passed a multi-billion Euro package that loosens the country’s tight borrowing rules to enable massive investments in defence. This follows announcements of increased defence elsewhere on the continent, including in the UK, Poland, and by the EU itself.

    Meanwhile, the UK and France are leading efforts to assemble a coalition of the willing to help Ukraine. Representatives of the 30-member group gathered in London on March 15 for further talks.

    Afterwards, the UK prime minister, Keir Starmer, released a statement saying that Ukraine’s western partners “will keep increasing the pressure on Russia, keep the military aid flowing to Ukraine and keep tightening the restrictions on Russia’s economy”.

    Undoubtedly, these measures would be more effective if they had Washington’s full buy-in – but they send a strong signal to both the Kremlin and the White House that Ukraine is not alone in its fight against Russia’s continuing aggression.

    Putin’s options

    Putin, meanwhile, may have time on his side in the short term – but he should take note of this. Russian manpower and firepower may dwarf that of Ukraine, but it would be no match for a Ukraine backed by such a coalition of the willing.

    Putin’s apparent plan to drag Trump into the minutiae of negotiating a comprehensive deal may eventually backfire in more ways than one. For a start, really detailed discussions will test the US president’s notoriously short attention span.

    But this will also buy time for Ukraine and its supporters to strengthen Kyiv’s position in future negotiations. And it will continue to strain – but not immediately break – Russia’s economy.

    For now, Trump’s efforts to end the war in Ukraine have stalled. He is attempting to broker a complex ceasefire deal that involves separate agreements with Kyiv and Moscow, pressure on Nato allies, and an attempt to drive a wedge between Russia and China. It’s not clear how this will succeed or indeed where it will end.

    The only certainty is that they are not bringing a just and stable peace for Ukraine any closer.

    Stefan Wolff is a past recipient of grant funding from the Natural Environment Research Council of the UK, the United States Institute of Peace, the Economic and Social Research Council of the UK, the British Academy, the NATO Science for Peace Programme, the EU Framework Programmes 6 and 7 and Horizon 2020, as well as the EU’s Jean Monnet Programme. He is a Trustee and Honorary Treasurer of the Political Studies Association of the UK and a Senior Research Fellow at the Foreign Policy Centre in London.

    Tetyana Malyarenko does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Trump’s phone call with Putin fails to deliver a full ceasefire – here’s what could happen next – https://theconversation.com/trumps-phone-call-with-putin-fails-to-deliver-a-full-ceasefire-heres-what-could-happen-next-252417

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Ukraine war: how Zelensky rebuilt his relationship with Trump to turn the tables on Putin

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex

    After Donald Trump’s “very good and productive” phone call with Vladimir Putin earlier this week, all eyes were on his subsequent call with Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky.

    Would it, when they last met in the flesh on February 28 at the White House, descend into disastrous acrimony? Or would Zelensky manage to engage with the US president in a cooperative way that encourages him to see Ukraine and its leader in a more favourable light?

    The latter, it seems. In a post on his Truth Social site, Trump referred to their “very good telephone call”, which got the two leaders “very much on track”. Zelensky for his part, talked of a “very good” and “frank” phone call and seemed to agree with everything the US president had to say, taking pains to emphasise and praise Trump and America’s leadership.

    With his vocal support of Trump’s proposal for peace, Zelensky has put the attention back on Putin. He clearly wants to appear to be the more reasonable negotiating partner by going along with the US president’s proposals.

    In spite of Zelensky’s misgivings about how trustworthy Putin is, he has agreed to a limited ceasefire with Russia on energy infrastructure (while stressing that, unlike Putin, he agrees with Trump’s aim for a complete ceasefire).

    Zelensky clearly knows that Russia has a great deal to gain from a pause on attacks on energy grids and oil refineries, given Ukraine’s increasing capacity to use long-range drone attacks. And a maritime ceasefire, if agreed, would also favour Russia.

    Sign up to receive our weekly World Affairs Briefing newsletter from The Conversation UK. Every Thursday we’ll bring you expert analysis of the big stories in international relations.

    But by publicly voicing Ukraine’s support for Trump’s plan for a ceasefire, Zelensky has exposed Putin’s disinterest in stopping hostilities.

    In the call, Zelensky emphasised that Ukraine was happy to support the US call for a ceasefire, without conditions. Putin, meanwhile, in his call with Trump laid out a set of frankly unreasonable demands.

    These included the complete cessation of military aid and intelligence sharing by Ukraine’s allies, including the US. He also demanded a complete halt on Ukrainian troop mobilisation and rearmament.

    The demands were so ridiculous, they were designed to get Ukraine to reject them. Interestingly Trump, when he was interviewed after his phone call with Putin, denied that the pair had discussed aid. Crucially, he didn’t say whether this was something he would agree to.

    But the fact that the two leaders discussed the possibility of an ice hockey match between their two countries is an indication of how Putin is able to manipulate the US president with flattery. It helps that Trump clearly admires Putin and has repeatedly said that he trusts the Russian leader.

    Has Putin overplayed his hand?

    But this could come with a time limit. Trump, who wants a peace deal to trumpet as a crowning achievement, could well get tired of the fact that Putin has made no concessions to allow that deal to progress.

    The Russian leader is clearly hoping that by seeming to engage with the “peace” process, while at the same time dangling the prospect of doing business with Russia – for example by offering the US the chance to explore Russia’s own reserves of rare earth minerals – he can keep Trump on side.

    But while Trump still leans toward Putin, his relationship with Zelensky seems to have improved. The Ukrainian president appears to have learned that Trump doesn’t have a long memory and that flattery goes a long way with the US president.

    Trump, meanwhile, is no longer calling Zelensky a dictator, and as yet there is no mention of halting US military aid or intelligence to Ukraine. There is the opposite, in fact, as the US has said it will assist in finding more Patriot missile defence systems after Zelensky mentioned that they were sorely needed.

    By giving Trump credit for the ceasefire initiative, Zelensky is putting the ball in Russia’s court. And his apparent receptiveness to Trump’s idea about the US taking over Ukraine’s nuclear power plants will appeal to Trump’s transactional instincts. In addition to offering Trump business deals, Zelensky is now consistently offering Trump praise for his peace efforts.

    And it’s clear from the tone of the briefing given by White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, after the call that the US was happy with how it went. Leavitt stressed Zelensky’s praise for Trump’s leadership several times.

    The White House reports on a “fantastic” phone call between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky.

    Zelensky has also successfully turned Trump’s attention to the 35,000 missing children abducted from Ukraine into Russia during the war. The US state department had stopped tracking them and had deleted the evidence it had gathered, but Trump is now vowing to return the children home.

    Putin is generally thought to be stringing these negotiations out as long as possible in order to maximise the amount of Ukrainian territory his army occupies. This could be a risky strategy.

    Ending the war in Ukraine as quickly as possible was one of Trump’s repeated campaign promises. So the question is how long Trump can remain distracted or satisfied by Putin’s false engagement with the peace process.

    The American president seems to be changing his tune on Ukraine more generally. His disastrous Oval Office press conference last month with Zelensky was viewed by some as a ploy to portray Ukraine as a difficult and ungrateful partner compared to Russia who he maintained was only interested in achieving a peaceful end to the war. Now, with Zelensky seemingly agreeing with whatever Trump says, it’s become harder for him to take that line.

    For now, at least, the pressure is back on Putin.

    Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Ukraine war: how Zelensky rebuilt his relationship with Trump to turn the tables on Putin – https://theconversation.com/ukraine-war-how-zelensky-rebuilt-his-relationship-with-trump-to-turn-the-tables-on-putin-252693

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Trump administration seeks to starve libraries and museums of funding by shuttering this little-known agency

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Devon Akmon, Director of the MSU Museum and CoLab Studio, Michigan State University

    ExplorationWorks, a children’s museum in Helena, Mont., received $151,946 in 2024 from the IMLS to expand its early childhood programs. Lisa Wareham

    On March 14, 2025, the Trump administration issued an executive order that called for the dismantling of seven federal agencies “to the maximum extent consistent with applicable law.” They ranged from the United States Agency for Global Media, which oversees Voice of America, to the Minority Business Development Agency.

    The Institute of Museum and Library Services was also on the list. Congress created the IMLS in 1996 through the Museum and Library Services Act. The law merged the Institute of Museum Services, which was established in 1976, with the Library Programs Office of the Department of Education.

    By combining these two departments, Congress sought to create an overarching agency that could more cohesively and strategically support American museums and libraries. The agency’s mission, programs and funding have been reaffirmed through subsequent legislation, such as the Museum and Library Services Act of 2003.

    The Conversation U.S. interviewed Devon Akmon, who is the director of the MSU Museum at Michigan State University. He explained how the agency supports the nation’s cultural institutions and local communities – and what could be lost if the agency were dissolved.

    What does the Institute of Museum and Library Services do?

    The agency provides financial support to a wide array of cultural and educational institutions, including art, science and history museums, zoos, aquariums, botanical gardens and historic sites. Libraries of all types – public, academic, school and research – also benefit from the agency’s funding.

    Through grants, research and policy initiatives, the IMLS helps these institutions better serve their communities.

    Anne-Imelda Radice, right, former director of the Institute of Museum and Library Services, inspects Denver city records and neighborhood histories in 2008. The volumes were digitized to make them more accessible to the public.
    Brian Brainerd/The Denver Post via Getty Images

    In the 2019 fiscal year, for example, the IMLS awarded funds to libraries in Nebraska to support economic development in 30 rural communities. The project created rotating “innovation studios” in local libraries and provided residents with tools, instructional materials and programming to foster entrepreneurship and creativity. More recently, IMLS awarded a grant to the Hands On Children’s Museum to develop a toolkit that museums across the country can use to support families with relatives who are in prison.

    For libraries, the IMLS might fund technology upgrades, such as virtual reality learning stations, AI-assisted research aids or digitization of rare books. The agency also pays for community programs that take place in libraries, from early childhood reading initiatives to workshops that help people land jobs.

    How has the Institute of Museum and Library Services supported your work at the MSU Museum?

    IMLS grants have played a vital role in enabling the MSU Museum to preserve, enhance and expand access to its collections.

    For example, we’ve used IMLS grants to develop high-quality audio aids for museum visitors who are blind or have poor vision. Recent funding has supported the digitization of over 2,000 vertebrate specimens, including rare and endangered species.

    Beyond financial support, the MSU Museum benefits from IMLS policy papers, professional training opportunities and resources developed through the National Leadership Grants for Museums program. Our staff members also contribute to national campaigns spearheaded by the IMLS, such as its Strategies for Countering Antisemitism & Hate initiative.

    Through these efforts, the IMLS, alongside the American Alliance of Museums, operate as cornerstones of learning and innovation within the museum field.

    Looking beyond Michigan State, what might be lost with its shuttering?

    The IMLS is more than a grantmaking entity – it is the only federal agency dedicated to sustaining the entire museum and library ecosystem in the United States.

    Its funding has sustained museums, advanced digital preservation, expanded accessibility for low-income communities and fueled innovation in educational programming. In 2024 alone, the agency distributed US$266.7 million through grants, research initiatives and policy development. For example, ExplorationWorks, a children’s museum in Helena, Montana, received $151,946 in 2024 from the IMLS to expand its early childhood programs that serve low-income and rural families.

    Without this support, many institutions will struggle to hire and retain qualified staff, leading to fewer exhibitions, stalled research and reduced educational outreach.

    The consequences would be particularly severe for small museums and rural museums, which lack the fundraising capacity of larger urban institutions. They’re often the only sources of cultural and historical education in their regions, and their loss would create cultural voids that cannot easily be filled.

    Trump’s executive order dictated that the Institute of Museum and Library Services and other agencies be eliminated “to the maximum extent consistent with applicable law.” What is the applicable law in this case?

    I’m not a lawyer. But my understanding is that the “applicable law” in this case primarily refers to the Museum and Library Services Act, which, as I noted earlier, was created in 1996 and has been reauthorized multiple times since then.

    Since the IMLS was created through this congressional legislation, it cannot simply be eliminated by an executive order. Congress would need to pass a law to repeal or defund it.

    President George W. Bush signs into law the Museum and Library Services Act on Sept. 25, 2003.
    Tina Hager/White House via Getty Images

    Additionally, the Antideficiency Act prohibits federal agencies from operating without appropriated funding. If Congress were to defund the IMLS rather than repeal its authorizing statute, the agency would be forced to cease operations due to a lack of money, even if the legal framework for its existence remained intact.

    Is there anything else you’d like to add?

    Museums are among the most trusted institutions in the country. They are rare bipartisan beacons of credibility in an era of deep division.

    A 2021 American Alliance of Museums report found that 97% of Americans view museums as valuable educational assets, while 89% consider them trustworthy sources of information. A 2022 American Library Association survey revealed that 89% of voters and 92% of parents believe local public libraries have an important role to play in communities.

    More than just cultural repositories, museums and libraries bring together citizens and offer learning opportunities for everyday people. By presenting science and history through engaging, evidence-based storytelling, museums help bridge ideological divides and encourage informed discourse. People of all political stripes rely on libraries for free internet access, job searches and literacy programs.

    The Institute of Museum and Library Services is central to this work. The agency provides leadership, while funding programs and research that help museums and libraries expand their offerings to reach all Americans.

    Stripping this support would threaten the sustainability of these institutions and weaken their ability to serve as pillars of education, civic engagement and truth. I see it as a disinvestment in an informed, connected and resilient society.

    Devon Akmon receives funding from the Institute of Museum and Library Services. He also serves as the vice chair and secretary of the board of directors for the American Alliance of Museums.

    – ref. Trump administration seeks to starve libraries and museums of funding by shuttering this little-known agency – https://theconversation.com/trump-administration-seeks-to-starve-libraries-and-museums-of-funding-by-shuttering-this-little-known-agency-252455

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: What causes the powerful winds that fuel dust storms, wildfires and blizzards? A weather scientist explains

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Chris Nowotarski, Associate Professor of Atmospheric Science, Texas A&M University

    When huge dust storms like this one in the Phoenix suburbs in 2022 hit, it’s easy to see the power of the wind. Christopher Harris/iStock Images via Getty Plus

    Windstorms can seem like they come out of nowhere, hitting with a sudden blast. They might be hundreds of miles long, stretching over several states, or just in your neighborhood.

    But they all have one thing in common: a change in air pressure.

    Just like air rushing out of your car tire when the valve is open, air in the atmosphere is forced from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure.

    The stronger the difference in pressure, the stronger the winds that will ultimately result.

    On this forecast for March 18, 2025, from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, ‘L’ represents low-pressure systems. The shaded area over New Mexico and west Texas represents strong winds and low humidity that combine to raise the risk of wildfires.
    NOAA Weather Prediction Center

    Other forces related to the Earth’s rotation, friction and gravity can also alter the speed and direction of winds. But it all starts with this change in pressure over a distance – what meteorologists like me call a pressure gradient.

    So how do we get pressure gradients?

    Strong pressure gradients ultimately owe their existence to the simple fact that the Earth is round and rotates.

    Because the Earth is round, the sun is more directly overhead during the day at the equator than at the poles. This means more energy reaches the surface of the Earth near the equator. And that causes the lower part of the atmosphere, where weather occurs, to be both warmer and have higher pressure on average than the poles.

    Nature doesn’t like imbalances. As a result of this temperature difference, strong winds develop at high altitudes over midlatitude locations, like the continental U.S. This is the jet stream, and even though it’s several miles up in the atmosphere, it has a big impact on the winds we feel at the surface.

    Wind speed and direction in the upper atmosphere on March 14, 2025, show waves in the jet stream. Downstream of a trough in this wave, winds diverge and low pressure can form near the surface.
    NCAR

    Because Earth rotates, these upper-altitude winds blow from west to east. Waves in the jet stream – a consequence of Earth’s rotation and variations in the surface land, terrain and oceans – can cause air to diverge, or spread out, at certain points. As the air spreads out, the number of air molecules in a column decreases, ultimately reducing the air pressure at Earth’s surface.

    The pressure can drop quite dramatically over a few days or even just a few hours, leading to the birth of a low-pressure system – what meteorologists call an extratropical cyclone.

    The opposite chain of events, with air converging at other locations, can form high pressure at the surface.

    In between these low-pressure and high-pressure systems is a strong change in pressure over a distance – a pressure gradient. And that pressure gradient leads to strong winds. Earth’s rotation causes these winds to spiral around areas of high and low pressure. These highs and lows are like large circular mixers, with air blowing clockwise around high pressure and counterclockwise around low pressure. This flow pattern blows warm air northward toward the poles east of lows and cool air southward toward the equator west of lows.

    A map illustrates lines of surface pressure, called isobars, with areas of high and low pressure marked for March 14, 2025. Winds are strongest when isobars are packed most closely together.
    Plymouth State University, CC BY-NC-SA

    As the waves in the jet stream migrate from west to east, so do the surface lows and highs, and with them, the corridors of strong winds.

    That’s what the U.S. experienced when a strong extratropical cyclone caused winds stretching thousands of miles that whipped up dust storms and spread wildfires, and even caused tornadoes and blizzards in the central and southern U.S. in March 2025.

    Whipping up dust storms and spreading fires

    The jet stream over the U.S. is strongest and often the most “wavy” in the springtime, when the south-to-north difference in temperature is often the strongest.

    Winds associated with large-scale pressure systems can become quite strong in areas where there is limited friction at the ground, like the flat, less forested terrain of the Great Plains. One of the biggest risks is dust storms in arid regions of west Texas or eastern New Mexico, exacerbated by drought in these areas.

    A dust storm hit Albuquerque, N.M., on March 18, 2025. Another dust storm a few dats earlier in Kansas caused a deadly pileup involving dozens of vehices on I-70.
    AP Photo/Roberto E. Rosales

    When the ground and vegetation are dry and the air has low relative humidity, high winds can also spread wildfires out of control.

    Even more intense winds can occur when the pressure gradient interacts with terrain. Winds can sometimes rush faster downslope, as happens in the Rockies or with the Santa Ana winds that fueled devastating wildfires in the Los Angeles area in January.

    Violent tornadoes and storms

    Of course, winds can become even stronger and more violent on local scales associated with thunderstorms.

    When thunderstorms form, hail and precipitation in them can cause the air to rapidly fall in a downdraft, causing very high pressure under these storms. That pressure forces the air to spread out horizontally when it reaches the ground. Meteorologists call these straight line winds, and the process that forms them is a downburst. Large thunderstorms or chains of them moving across a region can cause large swaths of strong wind over 60 mph, called a derecho.

    Finally, some of nature’s strongest winds occur inside tornadoes. They form when the winds surrounding a thunderstorm change speed and direction with height. This can cause part of the storm to rotate, setting off a chain of events that may lead to a tornado and winds as strong as 300 mph in the most violent tornadoes.

    How a tornado forms. Source: NOAA.

    Tornado winds are also associated with an intense pressure gradient. The pressure inside the center of a tornado is often very low and varies considerably over a very small distance.

    It’s no coincidence that localized violent winds from thunderstorm downbursts and tornadoes often occur amid large-scale windstorms. Extratropical cyclones often draw warm, moist air northward on strong winds from the south, which is a key ingredient for thunderstorms. Storms also become more severe and may produce tornadoes when the jet stream is in close proximity to these low-pressure centers. In the winter and early spring, cold air funneling south on the northwest side of strong extratropical cyclones can even lead to blizzards.

    So, the same wave in the jet stream can lead to strong winds, blowing dust and fire danger in one region, while simultaneously triggering a tornado outbreak and a blizzard in other regions.

    Chris Nowotarski receives funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and theDepartment of Energy (DOE).

    – ref. What causes the powerful winds that fuel dust storms, wildfires and blizzards? A weather scientist explains – https://theconversation.com/what-causes-the-powerful-winds-that-fuel-dust-storms-wildfires-and-blizzards-a-weather-scientist-explains-252639

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Insomnia can lead to heart issues − a psychologist recommends changes that can improve sleep

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Julio Fernandez-Mendoza, Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Health, Neuroscience, and Public Health Sciences, Penn State

    Better sleep hygiene habits may help with insomnia. Tetra Images via Getty Images

    About 10% of Americans say they have chronic insomnia, and millions of others report poor sleep quality. Ongoing research has found that bad sleep could lead to numerous health problems, including heart disease.

    Dr. Julio Fernandez-Mendoza is a professor of psychiatry and behavioral health, neuroscience and public health sciences at Penn State College of Medicine. He discusses the need for sleep, why teenagers require more sleep than adults, and how you can get a good night’s sleep without medications.

    Julio Fernandez-Mendoza discusses heart health and sleep.

    The Conversation has collaborated with SciLine to bring you highlights from the discussion that have been edited for brevity and clarity.

    How much sleep is enough for adults and for adolescents?

    Julio Fernandez-Mendoza: Adults who report getting about seven to eight hours of sleep per night generally have the best health, in terms of both physical and mental health, and longevity.

    But that recommendation changes with age. Adults over age 65 may need just six to seven hours of sleep per night. So older people, if otherwise healthy, should not feel anxious if they’re getting just six hours. Young people need the most – at least nine hours – and some younger children may need more.

    How can insufficient sleep harm our health?

    Fernandez-Mendoza: Our team was the first to show that those complaining about insomnia – difficulty falling or staying asleep – were more likely to have high blood pressure and be at risk for heart disease.

    In both teens and adults, we found that insomnia and shortened sleep may lead to elevated stress, hormone levels and inflammation. These problems tend to show up before you develop heart disease.

    As we age, the recommended amount of sleep declines.
    National Sleep Foundation Copyright 2025 National Sleep Foundation, all rights reserved

    What about people who have more serious sleep problems?

    Fernandez-Mendoza: Good sleep hygiene habits include cutting down on caffeine and alcohol, quitting smoking and exercising regularly. I also recommend not skipping meals, not eating too late at night and not eating too much.

    But people with a persistent sleep problem may need to make more behavioral changes. Research studies point to a set of six rules that can improve your sleep. You can follow these changes consistently in the short term, and then choose how to adapt them into your lifestyle down the road.

    First, get up at the same time no matter what. No matter how much sleep you get. This will anchor your sleep/wake cycle, called your circadian rhythm.

    Second, do not use your bed for anything except sleep and sexual activity.

    Third, when you can’t sleep, don’t lie in bed awake. Instead, get out of bed, go into another room if you can, and do an activity that’s enjoyable or relaxing. Go back to bed only when you’re ready to sleep.

    Fourth, get going with daily activities even after a poor night’s sleep. Don’t try to compensate for sleep loss. If you have chronic insomnia, don’t nap, sleep in, or doze during the day or evening even after poor sleep the previous night.

    Fifth, go to bed only when you’re actually sleepy enough to fall asleep.

    And sixth, start with the amount of sleep you’re now getting – with the lowest limit at five hours – and then increase it weekly by 15 minutes.

    These six rules are evidence-based and go above and beyond simple sleep hygiene habits. If they don’t work, see a provider who can help you.

    Your teen isn’t lazy. There are reasons why adolescents sleep in.

    Do you have advice specifically for adolescents?

    Fernandez-Mendoza: Adolescence is a unique developmental period. It’s not just the obvious physical, emotional and behavioral changes that occur during adolescence and puberty – there are changes in a teenager’s brain that can alter their sleep patterns.

    When an adolescent goes through puberty, their internal clock changes so that their sleep schedule shifts to later hours. While it’s true that adolescents are more engaged at night because of their social relationships, there’s also biology behind why they want to stay up late – their internal clocks have shifted. It’s not just choice.

    School start times for most adolescents are at odds with that biological shift. So they don’t get enough sleep, which affects their performance in school. Research suggests that schools with later start times are more closely aligned with the science on child development and don’t put adolescents at risk by making them wake up earlier than their bodies are biologically inclined to.

    Parents can help their teens get better sleep. Set a time for kids to stop doing homework and put away electronics. Instead, they can watch TV with the family or read – something relaxing and enjoyable that will help them wind down before bed.

    You can also gradually move back their wake-up time. Start on weekends, waking them up 30 minutes earlier every day, including school days, until the child reaches the desired wake-up time. Don’t try to reshift them suddenly – for example, waking up a teenager at 5 a.m. like it’s the military – because that doesn’t work. They won’t get used to it, since it’s at odds with their internal clock. So, do it little by little. If that doesn’t work, see a clinical provider.

    What kind of treatments can a sleep clinician provide?

    Fernandez-Mendoza: People should get help if they feel they sleep poorly, if they’re fatigued during the day, or if they snore or grind their teeth. All these issues deserve attention.

    Some people may think a sleep provider just prescribes expensive medication, but that’s not true. There are behavioral, non-drug-based treatments that work. Cognitive behavioral therapy is the first-line treatment recommended for insomnia. Light therapy may also help, which is the use of a bright light therapy lamp at a given time during the day or evening, depending on the person’s sleep problem.

    Watch the full interview to hear more.

    SciLine is a free service based at the American Association for the Advancement of Science, a nonprofit that helps journalists include scientific evidence and experts in their news stories.

    Julio Fernandez-Mendoza currently receives funding from the National Institutes of Health. He sits on the Board of Directors of the Sleep Research Society, a US-based not-for-profit professional association of sleep and circadian scientists.

    – ref. Insomnia can lead to heart issues − a psychologist recommends changes that can improve sleep – https://theconversation.com/insomnia-can-lead-to-heart-issues-a-psychologist-recommends-changes-that-can-improve-sleep-251017

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: 5 years on, true counts of COVID-19 deaths remain elusive − and research is hobbled by lack of data

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Dylan Thomas Doyle, Ph.D. Candidate in Information Science, University of Colorado Boulder

    National COVID-19 memorial wall for the five-year anniversary on March 11, 2025, in London, England. Andrew Aitchison/In Pictures via Getty Images

    In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers struggled to grasp the rate of the virus’s spread and the number of related deaths. While hospitals tracked cases and deaths within their walls, the broader picture of mortality across communities remained frustratingly incomplete.

    Policymakers and researchers quickly discovered a troubling pattern: Many deaths linked to the virus were never officially counted. A study analyzing data from over 3,000 U.S. counties between March 2020 and August 2022 found nearly 163,000 excess deaths from natural causes that were missing from official mortality records.

    Excess deaths, meaning those that exceed the number expected based on historical trends, serve as a key indicator of underreported deaths during health crises. Many of these uncounted deaths were later tied to COVID-19 through reviews of medical records, death certificates and statistical modeling.

    In addition, lack of real-time tracking for medical interventions during those early days slowed vaccine development by delaying insights into which treatments worked and how people were responding to newly circulating variants.

    Five years since the beginning of COVID-19, new epidemics such as bird flu are emerging worldwide, and researchers are still finding it difficult to access the data about people’s deaths that they need to develop lifesaving interventions.

    How can the U.S. mortality data system improve? I’m a technology infrastructure researcher, and my team and I design policy and technical systems to reduce inefficiency in health care and government organizations. By analyzing the flow of mortality data in the U.S., we found several areas of the system that could use updating.

    Critical need for real-time data

    A death record includes key details beyond just the fact of death, such as the cause, contributing conditions, demographics, place of death and sometimes medical history. This information is crucial for researchers to be able to analyze trends, identify disparities and drive medical advances.

    Approximately 2.8 million death records are added to the U.S. mortality data system each year. But in 2022 – the most recent official count available – when the world was still in the throes of the pandemic, 3,279,857 deaths were recorded in the federal system. Still, this figure is widely considered to be a major undercount of true excess deaths from COVID-19.

    In addition, real-time tracking of COVID-19 mortality data was severely lacking. This process involves the continuous collection, analysis and reporting of deaths from hospitals, health agencies and government databases by integrating electronic health records, lab reports and public health surveillance systems. Ideally, it provides up-to-date insights for decision-making, but during the COVID-19 pandemic, these tracking systems lagged and failed to generate comprehensive data.

    Getting real-time COVID-19 data from hospitals and other agencies into the hands of researchers proved difficult.
    Gerald Herbert/AP Photo

    Without comprehensive data on prior COVID-19 infections, antibody responses and adverse events, researchers faced challenges designing clinical trials to predict how long immunity would last and optimize booster schedules.

    Such data is essential in vaccine development because it helps identify who is most at risk, which variants and treatments affect survival rates, and how vaccines should be designed and distributed. And as part of the broader U.S. vital records system, mortality data is essential for medical research, including evaluating public health programs, identifying health disparities and monitoring disease.

    At the heart of the problem is the inefficiency of government policy, particularly outdated public health reporting systems and slow data modernization efforts that hinder timely decision-making. These long-standing policies, such as reliance on paper-based death certificates and disjointed state-level reporting, have failed to keep pace with real-time data needs during crises such as COVID-19.

    These policy shortcomings lead to delays in reporting and lack of coordination between hospital organizations, state government vital records offices and federal government agencies in collecting, standardizing and sharing death records.

    History of US mortality data

    The U.S. mortality data system has been cobbled together through a disparate patchwork of state and local governments, federal agencies and public health organizations over the course of more than a century and a half. It has been shaped by advances in public health, medical record-keeping and technology. From its inception to the present day, the mortality data system has been plagued by inconsistencies, inefficiencies and tensions between medical professionals, state governments and the federal government.

    The first national efforts to track information about deaths began in the 1850s when the U.S. Census Bureau started collecting mortality data as part of the decennial census. However, these early efforts were inconsistent, as death registration was largely voluntary and varied widely across states.

    In the early 20th century, the establishment of the National Vital Statistics System brought greater standardization to mortality data. For example, the system required all U.S. states and territories to standardize their death certificate format. It also consolidated mortality data at the federal level, whereas mortality data was previously stored at the state level.

    However, state and federal reporting remained fragmented. For example, states had no unifom timeline for submitting mortality data, resulting in some states taking months or even years to finalize and release death records. Local or state-level paperwork processing practices also remained varied and at times contradictory.

    Death record processing varies by state.
    eric1513/iStock via Getty Images Plus

    To begin to close gaps in reporting timelines to aid medical researchers, in 1981 the National Center for Health Statistics – a division of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention – introduced the National Death Index. This is a centralized database of death records collected from state vital statistics offices, making it easier to access death data for health and medical research. The system was originally paper-based, with the aim of allowing researchers to track the deaths of study participants without navigating complex bureaucracies.

    As time has passed, the National Death Index and state databases have become increasingly digital. The rise of electronic death registration systems in recent decades has improved processing speed when it comes to researchers accessing mortality data from the National Death Index. However, while the index has solved some issues related to gaps between state and federal data, other issues, such as high fees and inconsistency in state reporting times, still plague it.

    Accessing the data that matters most

    With the Trump administration’s increasing removal of CDC public health datasets, it is unclear whether policy reform for mortality data will be addressed anytime soon.

    Experts fear that the removal of CDC datasets has now set precedent for the Trump administration to cross further lines in its attempts to influence the research and data published by the CDC. The longer-term impact of the current administration’s public health policy on mortality data and disease response are not yet clear.

    What is clear is that five years since COVID-19, the U.S. mortality tracking system remains unequipped to meet emerging public health crises. Without addressing these challenges, the U.S. may not be able to respond quickly enough to public health crises threatening American lives.

    Dylan Thomas Doyle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. 5 years on, true counts of COVID-19 deaths remain elusive − and research is hobbled by lack of data – https://theconversation.com/5-years-on-true-counts-of-covid-19-deaths-remain-elusive-and-research-is-hobbled-by-lack-of-data-244799

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Tyrannical leader? Why comparisons between Trump and King George III miss the mark on 18th-century British monarchy

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Carla Gardina Pestana, Professor and Joyce Appleby Endowed Chair of America in the World, University of California, Los Angeles

    Are there legitimate comparisons between President Donald Trump and King George III? Rebecca Noble/Getty Images; Kean Collection/Getty Images

    George III, king of Great Britain and its colonies at the time of the American Revolution, has been maligned unfairly.

    During both the first and now the second term of President Donald Trump, commentators in the U.S. have invoked the king’s misdeeds to criticize Trump. When the president bypassed Congress to create a new government agency, appointed its head and stopped payment of millions of dollars of allocated federal funds, his critics noted that he assumed the role of Congress, a power grab that supposedly made him similar to George III. According to this criticism, the president engaged in tyranny, just as the founders accused George of doing.

    As a scholar of early America, I believe, however, that George III has gotten a bad rap. He was not the all-powerful monarch that Trump allegedly aspires to be.

    In the 1770s, the power of the British king was limited by the authority of Parliament. In that system, which Americans and others praised at the time as balanced, the king and the legislature each had specific duties and powers so that neither could control the government alone.

    George III was not an absolutist monarch, to use the language of the day for a power-hungry ruler. The English had struggled in the previous century over the extent of the king’s power. After fighting two civil wars, executing one king, and, eventually, forcing the monarch to agree to rule with Parliament rather than on his own, they believed their liberties were safeguarded.

    This system, known as limited monarchy, was the pride of Great Britain. It was also admired by the American founders. As late as 1774, in his Summary View of the Rights of British America, Thomas Jefferson praised the “free and ancient principles” of the British constitution in which “kings are the servants, not the proprietors of the people.”

    Trump has been compared with King George III by many writers and commentators; the White House on Feb. 19, 2024, issued the fake magazine cover of Trump crowned like a king.
    Various

    No kingly tyranny

    Britons, whether in Great Britain or the colonies, did fear a tyrant, a controlling and abusive leader.

    Some fears came from their study of political theory, which taught that government worked best when composed of various branches that represented the concerns of the different political classes.

    As this theory went, an unbalanced government would descend into tyranny with a too-powerful monarch; oligarchy under a dominant aristocratic class; or anarchy with the people out of control. They believed these perils could be avoided only by maintaining balance.

    Even though the British did not fear imbalance or a tyrant king in their own case, they could see the danger threatening elsewhere in Europe.

    France represented a worst-case scenario. Its absolutist kings had ruled without France’s legislature – the Estates General – for more than a century and a half at the time of the American Revolution. British poet Robert Wolseley’s often reprinted poem declared: “Let France grow proud beneath the tyrant’s lust, While the rackt people crawl and lick the dust. The mighty Genius of this isle disdains Ambitious slavery and golden chains.”

    Within a few years, Anglo-American criticism of kingly tyranny in France would be validated: That country descended into a violent revolution that resulted in decades of warfare and political violence, including the execution of the entire royal family.

    This experience confirmed for the British and Americans that a balanced system was best and that they should count their blessings.

    Why revolt?

    A list of grievances held by the American Colonies against King George III, set down in Thomas Jefferson’s first draft of the American Declaration of Independence, which ultimately included 27 grievances against the king.
    MPI/Getty Images

    If the American revolutionaries admired the British system and sought to copy it in the United States, why did they reject the link to Britain and revolt in the first place?

    Americans did not revolt against the nature of British government. Rather they objected to their changing place within the British Empire. The revolutionary crisis had a number of roots, but most of them arose out of changes in the management of the relationship between the American Colonies and the imperial center.

    From the 1760s, the British government took a more activist role in its American Colonies, limiting their geographical expansion and imposing taxes directly on the population. In the past, Colonists had been free to move west, challenged only by the indigenous residents who fought to defend their lands.

    Now the British government, aiming to put an end to these wars, blocked expansion. At the same time, to pay down the debt accrued in recent war with France – and fought in part in North America – the government levied taxes not via the Colonial legislatures, as it had before, but directly on residents. This change sparked revolt and, eventually, revolution.

    Turning on the king

    American Colonists pull down a statue of King George III in New York City during the American Revolution.
    Corbis via Getty Images

    Before 1776, the Colonists believed that George III would come to their rescue and halt these changes imposed by Parliament. They thought initially that he did not realize how the new policies affected them.

    Only in 1776 did they accept that George III supported the policy changes and would not defend their rights. It was in that context that they turned on him and declared him tyrannical, blaming him for the new policies and calling for a break with Britain. As the Declaration of Independence said: “The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States.”

    Although they complained about the tyranny of George III, their true objection was that their subordinate position within the empire gave them little leverage when opposing policies that king and Parliament agreed to impose on them.

    Once independent, the founders created a system that imitated the British model of mixed governance and created barriers – the powers of Congress and the oversight of the Supreme Court – that they hoped would safeguard their liberties against the threat of renewed tyranny.

    Carla Gardina Pestana does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Tyrannical leader? Why comparisons between Trump and King George III miss the mark on 18th-century British monarchy – https://theconversation.com/tyrannical-leader-why-comparisons-between-trump-and-king-george-iii-miss-the-mark-on-18th-century-british-monarchy-251869

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Atlantic sturgeon were fished almost to extinction − ancient DNA reveals how Chesapeake Bay population changed over centuries

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Natalia Przelomska, Research Associate in Archaeogenomics, National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution

    Sturgeon can be several hundred pounds each. cezars/E+ via Getty Images

    Sturgeons are one of the oldest groups of fishes. Sporting an armor of five rows of bony, modified scales called dermal scutes and a sharklike tail fin, this group of several-hundred-pound beasts has survived for approximately 160 million years. Because their physical appearance has changed very little over time, supported by a slow rate of evolution, sturgeon have been called living fossils.

    Despite their survival through several geological time periods, many present-day sturgeon species are at threat of extinction, with 17 of 27 species listed as “critically endangered.”

    Conservation practitioners such as the Virginia Commonwealth University monitoring team are working hard to support recovery of Atlantic sturgeon in the Chesapeake Bay area. But it’s not clear what baseline population level people should strive toward restoring. How do today’s sturgeon populations compare with those of the past?

    VCU monitoring team releases an adult Atlantic sturgeon back into the estuary.
    Matt Balazik

    We are a molecular anthropologist and a biodiversity scientist who focus on species that people rely on for subsistence. We study the evolution, population health and resilience of these species over time to better understand humans’ interaction with their environments and the sustainability of food systems.

    For our recent sturgeon project, we joined forces with fisheries conservation biologist Matt Balazik, who conducts on-the-ground monitoring of Atlantic sturgeon, and Torben Rick, a specialist in North American coastal zooarchaeology. Together, we wanted to look into the past and see how much sturgeon populations have changed, focusing on the James River in Virginia. A more nuanced understanding of the past could help conservationists better plan for the future.

    Sturgeon loomed large for millennia

    In North America, sturgeon have played important subsistence and cultural roles in Native communities, which marked the seasons by the fishes’ behavioral patterns. Large summertime aggregations of lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) in the Great Lakes area inspired one folk name for the August full moon – the sturgeon moon. Woodland Era pottery remnants at archaeological sites from as long as 2,000 years ago show that the fall and springtime runs of Atlantic sturgeon (Acipenser oxyrinchus) upstream were celebrated with feasting.

    Archaeologists uncover bony scutes – modified scales that resemble armor for the living fish – in places where people relied on sturgeon for subsistence.
    Logan Kistler and Natalia Przelomska

    Archaeological finds of sturgeon remains support that early colonial settlers in North America, notably those who established Jamestown in the Chesapeake Bay area in 1607, also prized these fish. When Captain John Smith was leading Jamestown, he wrote “there was more sturgeon here than could be devoured by dog or man.” The fish may have helped the survival of this fortress-colony that was both stricken with drought and fostering turbulent relationships with the Native inhabitants.

    This abundance is in stark contrast to today, when sightings of migrating fish are sparse. Exploitation during the past 300 years was the key driver of Atlantic sturgeon decline. Demand for caviar drove the relentless fishing pressure throughout the 19th century. The Chesapeake was the second-most exploited sturgeon fishery on the Eastern Seaboard up until the early 20th century, when the fish became scarce.

    Conservation biologists capture the massive fish for monitoring purposes, which includes clipping a tiny part of the fin for DNA analysis.
    Matt Balazik

    At that point, local protection regulations were established, but only in 1998 was a moratorium on harvesting these fish declared. Meanwhile, abundance of Atlantic sturgeon remained very low, which can be explained in part by their lifespan. Short-lived fish such as herring and shad can recover population numbers much faster than Atlantic sturgeon, which live for up to 60 years and take a long time to reach reproductive age – up to around 12 years for males and as many as 28 years for females.

    To help manage and restore an endangered species, conservation biologists tend to split the population into groups based on ranges. The Chesapeake Bay is one of five “distinct population segments” the U.S. Endangered Species Act listing in 2012 created for Atlantic sturgeon.

    Since then, conservationists have pioneered genetic studies on Atlantic sturgeon, demonstrating through the power of DNA that natal river – where an individual fish is born – and season of spawning are both important for distinguishing subpopulations within each regional group. Scientists have also described genetic diversity in Atlantic sturgeon; more genetic variety suggests they have more capacity to adapt when facing new, potentially challenging conditions.

    The study focused on Atlantic sturgeon from the Chesapeake Bay region, past and present. The four archaeological sites included are highlighted.
    Przelomska NAS et al., Proc. R. Soc. B 291: 20241145, CC BY

    Sturgeon DNA, then and now

    Archaeological remains are a direct source of data on genetic diversity in the past. We can analyze the genetic makeup of sturgeons that lived hundreds of years ago, before intense overfishing depleted their numbers. Then we can compare that baseline with today’s genetic diversity.

    The James River was a great case study for testing out this approach, which we call an archaeogenomics time series. Having obtained information on the archaeology of the Chesapeake region from our collaborator Leslie Reeder-Myers, we sampled remains of sturgeon – their scutes and spines – at a precolonial-era site where people lived from about 200 C.E. to about 900 C.E. We also sampled from important colonial sites Jamestown (1607-1610) and Williamsburg (1720-1775). And we complemented that data from the past with tiny clips from the fins of present-day, live fish that Balazik and his team sampled during monitoring surveys.

    Scientists separate Atlantic sturgeon scute fragments from larger collections of zooarchaeological remains, to then work on the scutes in a lab dedicated to studying ancient DNA.
    Torben Rick and Natalia Przelomska

    DNA tends to get physically broken up and biochemically damaged with age. So we relied on special protocols in a lab dedicated to studying ancient DNA to minimize the risk of contamination and enhance our chances of successfully collecting genetic material from these sturgeon.

    Atlantic sturgeon have 122 chromosomes of nuclear DNA – over five times as many as people do. We focused on a few genetic regions, just enough to get an idea of the James River population groupings and how genetically distinct they are from one another.

    We were not surprised to see that fall-spawning and spring-spawning groups were genetically distinct. What stood out, though, was how starkly different they were, which is something that can happen when a population’s numbers drop to near-extinction levels.

    We also looked at the fishes’ mitochondrial DNA, a compact molecule that is easier to obtain ancient DNA from compared with the nuclear chromosomes. With our collaborator Audrey Lin, we used the mitochondrial DNA to confirm our hypothesis that the fish from archaeological sites were more genetically diverse than present-day Atlantic sturgeon.

    Strikingly, we discovered that mitochondrial DNA did not always group the fish by season or even by their natal river. This was unexpected, because Atlantic sturgeon tend to return to their natal rivers for breeding. Our interpretation of this genetic finding is that over very long timescales – many thousands of years – changes in the global climate and in local ecosystems would have driven a given sturgeon population to migrate into a new river system, and possibly at a later stage back to its original one. This notion is supported by other recent documentation of fish occasionally migrating over long distances and mixing with new groups.

    Our study used archaeology, history and ecology together to describe the decline of Atlantic sturgeon. Based on the diminished genetic diversity we measured, we estimate that the Atlantic sturgeon populations we studied are about a fifth of what they were before colonial settlement. Less genetic variability means these smaller populations have less potential to adapt to changing conditions. Our findings will help conservationists plan into the future for the continued recovery of these living fossils.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Atlantic sturgeon were fished almost to extinction − ancient DNA reveals how Chesapeake Bay population changed over centuries – https://theconversation.com/atlantic-sturgeon-were-fished-almost-to-extinction-ancient-dna-reveals-how-chesapeake-bay-population-changed-over-centuries-241104

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Islamic State in Somalia: the terrorist group’s origins, rise and recent battlefield defeats

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Stig Jarle Hansen, Professor of International Relations, Norwegian University of Life Sciences

    The Islamic State in Somalia is an affiliate of the transnational jihadist group Islamic State, known in short as ISIS. Based in the semi-autonomous northern Somalia territory of Puntland, the terrorist group was the target of the first foreign combat operation of the Trump administration in February 2025. Previously, the group has been linked to planned terror attacks on the Vatican and on the Israeli embassy in Stockholm. Stig Jarle Hansen, a researcher and author of several books on jihadism in Africa, examines its origins, rise and recent battlefield defeats in the mountains of Puntland.

    1. The rise of the Islamic State

    Before the establishment of the Islamic State in Somalia in 2015, the Somali jihadist group al-Shabaab had established itself in the north. The small group had extensive connections to smuggling networks. It later split into two and the future leader of the Islamic State in Somalia, Sheikh Abdulqader Muumin, emerged from one of the splinter groups.

    In Somalia, clans define the relationship between people and all actors in the society. The connections of the new group to the Ali Suleiban sub-clan enabled it to profit from the clan’s links to smuggling and maritime piracy groups.

    Puntland is the hub of communication and maritime trade between Somalia and Yemen, as well as the wider Middle East. Smuggling has gone on in the region for centuries. The rugged terrain is ideal for piracy, illegal smuggling and insurgents.

    Puntland has been more or less autonomous from the rest of Somalia for more than three decades, and the Somali government has little influence there today.

    2. The jihadist behind the Islamic State in Somalia

    Muumin lived in Sweden through the 1990s and early 2000s and later moved to the UK. Back in Somalia, he joined al-Shabaab and became a prominent figure in the group’s jihadist videos. Such videos aim to maintain morals, attract new recruits and create sympathy for the group.

    In 2015, Muumin defected to lead the Islamic State in Somalia. His second-in-command was another Ali Suleiban clansman, Mahad Moalim. In 2016, the first video of the group was circulated through Islamic State media outlets.

    A milestone for the group followed its 2017 suicide bombing of the Juba Hotel in Bosaso, Puntland’s commercial capital and sea port. This enabled the Islamic State in Somalia to pressure Bossaso-based businesses to pay it protection money, the single most important source of income. In 2017-2018, the group is believed to have been behind as many as 50 assassinations in central Somalia. The killings were a forceful tool to generate protection money.

    On 27 July 2018, the Somali group was officially designated as a full province by the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. The Maktab al-Karrar regional office was based in the small Puntland chapter, giving it global responsibilities.

    The Somali group was made responsible for the central African and the Mozambique provinces of the Islamic State. Money flowed to the group from the Islamic State, as did extortion money from Bossaso, other northern Puntland cities and more infrequently from Mogadishu.

    In the first half of 2022, the US Treasury claimed that the organisation generated US$2.3 million from extortion payments, related imports, livestock and agriculture. The regional office and Muumin emerged as key financial players in east Africa, and even outside it, from their base in Buur Dexhtaal in Bari Puntland. Indeed, unnamed US officials claimed in 2023 that Muumim had been made the transnational leader of the Islamic State.

    3. An overblown reputation

    The Islamic State’s reputation in Somalia is often overstated. The group has never captured or held large territories. Its numbers in 2024 were estimated to be between 600 and 1,600. That pales in comparison to al-Shabaab in the south of Somalia.

    Its links to a planned attack on the Israeli embassy in Stockholm 2024 were probably weak and failed to hold up in court. And the jihadist linked to a planned attack in the Vatican 2018 seems to have left Islamic State prior to the planning.

    It is also doubtful that Muumin is the global leader of the Islamic State as claimed by some. That’s for two main reasons. First, an Islamic State leader has to be drawn from a tribe related to the prophet (Qureshi). Muumin is not. Second, the Islamic State in Somalia is the smallest of the Islamic State provinces in Africa. It is likely that a leader of a stronger province would have ranked higher.

    Although the income-gathering capacities of the Puntland-based group give it prominence in the Islamic State media, the Islamic State in Somalia does not rank higher than the Islamic State in the Sahara and Mozambique.

    4. Down but not out

    The Puntland authorities launched a relatively successful counter-offensive against the Islamic State in January 2025. This was combined with air support by the US and the United Arab Emirates.

    Puntland won important battles in January and February, including an attack in which it killed 70 Islamic State fighters.

    By late February, the morale of the Islamic State fighters seemed to break. With the fall of Buur Dexhtaal, the main base, in March, all the larger known bases had fallen. Many of the fleeing foreign fighters were captured.

    But the Islamic State is not defeated. The terrain enabled some of the fighters to hide. Neither Muumin, who is in his 70s, nor his second-in-command Abdirahman Fahiye have been reported killed. There are at least several hundred fighters left.

    If the Islamic State is still able to extort money from the northern business community, it could recruit from the large numbers of Oromo Ethiopian refugees in and around Bosaso, as well as locals who need jobs.

    Stig Jarle Hansen does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. Islamic State in Somalia: the terrorist group’s origins, rise and recent battlefield defeats – https://theconversation.com/islamic-state-in-somalia-the-terrorist-groups-origins-rise-and-recent-battlefield-defeats-252303

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: The PKK says it will lay down its arms. What are the chances of lasting peace between Turkey and the Kurds? Podcast

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Gemma Ware, Host, The Conversation Weekly Podcast, The Conversation

    For over 40 years, the Kurdistan Workers Party, the PKK, has waged an armed insurgency against Turkey, fighting for Kurdish rights and autonomy.

    But in late February, Abdullah Öcalan, the PKK’s imprisoned founder, called for the group to lay down its arms and dissolve itself. Days later, the PKK, which is labelled as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, Europe and the US, declared a ceasefire with Turkey.

    In this episode of The Conversation Weekly podcast, we speak to political scientist Pinar Dinc about what’s led to this moment and whether it could be the beginning of a lasting peace between Turkey and the Kurds.

    Despite being imprisoned in solitary confinement since his capture in 1999, Öcalan has remained a central figure in the Kurdish movement, both in Turkey and across the region.

    His call for the PKK to abandon its armed struggle came months after the leader of a Turkish ultra-nationalist political party launched an initiative to bring an end to the conflict.

    Over the past few decades, previous rounds of peace talks between the PKK and Turkey, most notably in 2009 and 2013-15, have collapsed.

    But Pinar Dinc, an associate professor of political science at Lund University in Sweden, says that since the Hamas-led October 7 attacks on Israel and the war in Gaza, the situation in the Middle East has rapidly changed. “It’s mutually beneficial to put an end to this war,” she says. “Both groups recognise the necessity of addressing regional tensions.”

    Dinc says international support for the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in north-eastern Syria, and its Rojava revolution, means that Turkey has been forced to recognise a new “Syrian Kurdish reality”. At the same time, she says, the Kurdish movement has also reached a limit in what it can achieve in an era of modern warfare.

     Turkey has a huge army. It’s one of the biggest armies of Nato. Now we see increased use of drones surveillance and advanced weaponry, and I think the PKK guerrillas in the Qandil mountains, what they refer to as the medya defence zones, they’re also realising that this is getting more and more difficult.

    Limited discussions began in March between the Turkish government and Kurdish political parties on a way forward in peace negotiations. Dinc says this is a real opportunity for a broader reconciliation process, but there will be real challenges in the detail of what it means for Turkey’s Kurdish population.

     The PKK is an outcome of structural problems arising from the longstanding oppression and marginalisation of Kurds in Turkey, and addressing these root causes is essential for achieving lasting peace.

    Listen to the conversation with Dinc on The Conversation Weekly podcast.

    This episode of The Conversation Weekly was written and produced by Mend Mariwany. Sound design was by Eloise Stevens and theme music by Neeta Sarl. Gemma Ware is the executive producer.

    Newsclips in this episode from AP Archive, AFP News Agency, Sky News, Med TV, Gazete Duvar, DW News, Al Jazeera English and France 24 English.

    Listen to The Conversation Weekly via any of the apps listed above, download it directly via our RSS feed or find out how else to listen here.

    Pinar Dinc is the principal investigator of the ECO-Syria project, which receives funding from the Strategic Research Area: The Middle East in the Contemporary World (MECW) at the Centre for Advanced Middle Eastern Studies, Lund University, Sweden.

    – ref. The PKK says it will lay down its arms. What are the chances of lasting peace between Turkey and the Kurds? Podcast – https://theconversation.com/the-pkk-says-it-will-lay-down-its-arms-what-are-the-chances-of-lasting-peace-between-turkey-and-the-kurds-podcast-252646

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why sharing meals can make people happier – what evidence from 142 countries shows

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Alberto Prati, Assistant Professor in Economics, UCL

    Sharing meals can contribute to feelings of happiness, a new report suggests. Ground picture/Shutterstock

    The importance of sharing meals is recognised across cultures, from the Jewish Shabbat meal to the fast-breaking Iftar meals during Ramadan. The known link between food and social relationships is ancient. The English word companion, the French copain (friend) and the Italian compagno (partner) come from the Latin cum and pānis – literally “with-bread”. The Chinese term for companion/partner (伙伴) stems from a similar term (火伴) which literally translates to “fire mate”, a reference to sharing meals over a campfire.

    But how important is eating together to our happiness? This is the question that I and my co-authors answer in the World Happiness Report 2025. In our new data and analysis we looked at the link between how often people share meals and whether they feel good about their lives and experience positive emotions. We also documented that there was a massive difference between countries and regions when it came to how often people shared meals.

    Comparing the statistics from the 2022-23 Gallup World Poll about sharing meals with standard measures of wellbeing, we found a significant, positive relationship in almost all regions. Not only do countries where meal sharing is more common tend to report higher levels of wellbeing, but this is true even when comparing people who live in the same country.

    The Gallup poll asked more than 150,000 people from 142 countries and territories how many lunches and dinners they shared with someone they know during the past week. The scores varied widely between regions.

    Latin Americans share approximately two-third of their meals, with residents of Paraguay, Ecuador and Colombia reporting an average of more than ten shared meals per week. At the bottom of the scale, there are relatively low levels of meal sharing in south and east Asian countries – in particular India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Japan and South Korea, where people share less than one meal out of three, on average.

    While there is an association between sharing meals and wellbeing pretty much everywhere, this association is stronger in some regions than others. For instance, for a person who always dines alone in North America, Australia and New Zealand, the wellbeing benefit of starting to share most of their meals (eight or more times a week) in the life evaluation scale is big (the life evaluation scale is how people judge their life, with zero being the worst possible life and 10 being the best). This boost is equivalent to the effect of doubling their income.

    However, in Latin America, the Caribbean and sub-Saharan Africa, this effect is half as great and is essentially nil in south-east Asia. The reasons for this difference is as yet unclear.

    For social scientists, the frequency of sharing meals offers an indicator for social connectedness (the ways that people interact with and relate to one another). Unlike measures that capture people’s subjective feelings about social wellbeing, the number of shared meals gives us a concrete measure on which to base our analysis.

    While interpretations of friendship or perceptions of closeness may change over time or between countries, the number of meals shared with others does not.

    Meal sharing by region and age:

    Of course, those who share more meals can differ in many other aspects, but even when we take into account characteristics such as gender, age, income, living alone and people’s ability to meet basic needs for food, the relationship between sharing meals and wellbeing still holds strong.

    While the global data we used was only introduced in 2022, some countries have collected information on meal sharing for longer. In the United States, where the American Time Use Survey has been running for more than 20 years, we find clear evidence that with every passing year, Americans are dining alone more often, particularly young adults.

    Today, 18 to 24-year-olds in the US are 90% more likely to eat every meal alone on a given day than they were in 2003. We also find that Americans who eat at least one meal with others report higher levels of happiness and lower levels of stress, pain and sadness on that day.

    How meals sharing is linked to emotions in the US:

    From our data, we can’t tell how much of a wellbeing boost sharing an extra meal
    creates, and to what extent people share more meals because they are already happy, but it is reasonable to assume that it is not just the latter. This would reflect previous research which has shown the importance of social capital (networks of social connections which are conducive to a well-functioning society) and the positive benefits of in-person interactions.

    In a world where loneliness is increasingly recognised as a public health issue, rethinking how we gather around the table, and how often, could provide practical solutions to reduce social isolation and raise wellbeing.

    Institutions where people routinely eat their meals together can play a critical role on this front. The other side of the coin is the surge in working from home, which could raise levels of solitude.

    So, if you don’t have plans for lunch tomorrow, maybe this is the good moment to message someone you would like to spend more time with.

    Alberto Prati is affiliated with the Wellbeing Research Centre at the University of Oxford and the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics.

    – ref. Why sharing meals can make people happier – what evidence from 142 countries shows – https://theconversation.com/why-sharing-meals-can-make-people-happier-what-evidence-from-142-countries-shows-252352

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Canadian small businesses can expand into Asian markets and reduce their dependence on the U.S.

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Michael Joseph Dominic Roberts, Associate Dean & Associate Professor, Faculty of Business and Communications Studies, Mount Royal University

    The recent escalation of trade tensions under United States President Donald Trump has significantly increased uncertainty for Canadian SMEs (small- and medium-sized enterprises), particularly in the high-value service sector.

    Examples of this sector include financial technology and investment services, aerospace and advanced manufacturing, and clean technology sectors focused on renewable energy and sustainable resource management.

    For decades, Canadian businesses have relied on a stable trade relationship with the U.S. But under Trump’s “America First” protectionist policies, that stability has crumbled.

    With tariffs, trade barriers and shifting political dynamics making North American markets increasingly unpredictable, many Canadian businesses are searching for ways to reduce their dependence on the U.S. and expand elsewhere.

    Expanding into Asia

    Asia has emerged as an attractive alternative for businesses due to its rapidly expanding middle class, growing investments in infrastructure and technology, and rising demand for specialized expertise.

    This trend is particularly evident in the energy sector. The Asia-Pacific region — though currently accounting for only eight per cent of the global market — is expected to grow significantly as countries expand energy infrastructure and seek advanced technologies to improve resource extraction for environmental sustainability.



    Read more:
    Trump’s tariff threat is a sign that Canada should be diversifying beyond the U.S.

    This presents promising growth opportunities for Canadian businesses in sectors like engineering consulting, technology, energy and environmental services, where they already have a competitive edge.

    However, entering Asian markets presents unique challenges, requiring businesses to rethink their strategies.

    Breaking into Asian markets

    Expanding into Asian markets is no easy task for SMEs. These businesses face substantial barriers, including significant differences in regulatory environments, business practices and customer expectations.

    For service-based businesses, the challenge is even greater. Unlike physical products, which can be easily displayed and tested, services are harder to quantify and prove to new clients. This makes it more difficult for SMEs to build credibility and demonstrate their value in unfamiliar markets.

    Our recent study explored how Canadian SMEs in the service sector can successfully overcome these barriers when entering Asian markets like China, India and South Korea.

    We brought together industry experts, government officials and senior executives from SMEs already operating successfully in Asia for a two-day workshop. We analyzed their firsthand experiences, challenges and recommendations to develop a clear and actionable framework called the 4P strategy (potential, proposition, presence and policy).

    These four steps offer SMEs a structured approach to understanding local conditions, differentiating offerings, establishing trusted partnerships and gaining government support.

    1. Potential: Understand the local market

    SMEs must understand Asian market regulations, business culture and market structures. Unlike North America’s relatively stable environment, Asian markets often feature rapidly evolving regulations and unpredictable policy changes.

    Businesses should balance these regulatory uncertainties against economic opportunities and be prepared to swiftly adapt when necessary. For example, policy changes in Asian markets, such as shifting foreign investment regulations or evolving environmental standards, can create uncertainty for SMEs operating abroad.

    Companies must remain agile to navigate regulatory shifts while leveraging the relative economic stability of the region.

    Patience and flexibility are also critical. In many Asian markets, business deals take longer to close due to hierarchical, relationship-driven decision-making. SMEs should anticipate these extended timelines and factor them into their planning.

    Our study found that deals that might be finalized quickly in North America can take years to develop in Asia, requiring firms to exercise patience before realizing significant profits. Successful market entry depends on a long-term approach and the ability to adapt to extended gestation periods.

    2. Proposition: Adapt services to fit local needs

    SMEs need to localize their offerings beyond language translation, adapting their branding, marketing and customer-engagement strategies to fit local contexts.

    A clearly defined and differentiated service offering is critical. Businesses must clearly define what sets them apart from local competitors and ensure their services address specific market needs.

    Pricing strategies should also align with local market expectations. Many Asian markets, especially in business-to-business services, are highly price-sensitive. SMEs must balance competitive pricing with value.

    In some cases, businesses may need to use performance-based pricing models — where clients pay based on results rather than a fixed fee — to remain competitive while protecting profit margins.

    3. Presence: Build a local network and partnerships

    A strong local presence is vital for success in Asia. SMEs should invest in trusted local partnerships or regional offices to build credibility, facilitate smoother operations and better understand local customer needs.

    Relationships play a central role in doing business in Asia. Unlike in North America, where successful transactions often lead to partnerships, in Asia, relationships must be built first.

    This relationship-first approach is deeply embedded in business culture, requiring firms to prioritize long-term engagement over immediate gains. Research has shown that trust-building is essential for long-term success in Asian markets, as strong relationships ultimately lead to transactions.

    Canadian SMEs entering these markets should be prepared to shift their approach, recognizing that sustained commitment and relationship-building are key to unlocking business opportunities.

    4. Policy: Take advantage of government support

    Many Canadian SMEs underestimate the extent of available government support and miss out on resources that reduce risks and make it easier to establish a foothold abroad.

    Our study found that SMEs expanding to Asia can access valuable support from government departments and trade commissioners at Canadian embassies. In energy services subsectors, government and non-governmental organizations can assist SMEs in forming partnerships with Asian firms.

    Additionally, agencies like Export Development Canada offer training, financial support and market-entry resources that many SMEs overlook. Taking advantage of these programs can help businesses navigate regulatory challenges and accelerate their international expansion.

    Government-backed programs also support research, development and technology adaptation to help businesses tailor their services to local markets. Our study found that making use of these resources reduces barriers, lowers entry risks and significantly enhances businesses’ likelihood of success in Asia.

    Seizing the opportunity

    Rather than merely serving as an alternative to the increasingly restrictive U.S. market, Asia presents significant growth opportunities for Canadian SMEs but demands strategic patience, adaptability and sustained commitment.

    However, success in Asia won’t come overnight. Unlike the relatively familiar North American market, expanding into Asia requires a patience, adaptability and a willingness to learn a different business culture.

    By adopting the 4P strategies, Canadian businesses can effectively navigate market-entry barriers and position themselves for success in an era of shifting global trade dynamics.

    Etayankara Muralidharan receives funding from Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC).

    Michael Joseph Dominic Roberts does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    – ref. How Canadian small businesses can expand into Asian markets and reduce their dependence on the U.S. – https://theconversation.com/how-canadian-small-businesses-can-expand-into-asian-markets-and-reduce-their-dependence-on-the-u-s-251991

    MIL OSI – Global Reports –