Source: The Conversation – USA – By Farah Nibbs, Assistant Professor of Emergency and Disaster Health Systems, University of Maryland, Baltimore County
Long before colonialism brought slavery to the Caribbean, the native islanders saw hurricanes and storms as part of the normal cycle of life.
The Taino of the Greater Antilles and the Kalinago, or Caribs, of the Lesser Antilles developed systems that enabled them to live with storms and limit their exposure to damage.
On the larger islands, such as Jamaica and Cuba, the Taino practiced crop selection with storms in mind, preferring to plant root crops such as cassava or yucca with high resistance to damage from hurricane and storm winds, as Stuart Schwartz describes in his 2016 book “Sea of Storms.”
The current disaster crisis that the Caribbean’s small islands are experiencing as hurricanes intensify did not start a few decades ago. Rather, the islands’ vulnerability is a direct result of the exploitative systems forced upon the region by colonialism, its legacies of slave-based land policies and ill-suited construction and development practices, and its environmental injustices.
Rather than growing crops that could sustain the local food supply, the Europeans who began arriving in the 1600s focused on exploitative extractive economic models and export cash crops through the plantation economy.
They forced Indigenous people off their lands and built settlements along the coast, which made it easier to import enslaved peoples and goods and to export cash crops such as sugar and tobacco to Europe – and also left communities vulnerable to storms. They also developed settlements in low-lying areas, often near rivers and streams, which could provide transportation for agricultural produce but which became flood risks during heavy rains.
Homes built to the water’s edge in Saint-Martin, an overseas collectivity of France, were devastated when Hurricane Irma hit in 2017. Helene Valenzuela/AFP via Getty Images
Today, more than 70% of the Caribbean’s population lives along the coast, often less than a mile from the shore. These coastlines are not only highly exposed to hurricanes but also to sea-level rise fueled by climate change.
Legacies of slave-based land policies
Colonialism’s legacy of land policies has also made recovery from disasters much harder today.
When colonial powers took over, a few landowners were given control of most of the land, while the majority of the population was forced onto marginal and small areas. The local population had no legal right to the land, as the people did not possess land certificate titles or deeds and were often forced to pay rent to landlords.
After independence, most island governments tried to acquire land from former plantations or estates and to redistribute it to the working class. But these efforts, mainly in the 1960s and ’70s, largely failed to transform land ownership, improve economic development or reduce vulnerability.
One colonial legacy perpetuating vulnerability to this day is known as crown land, or state land. In the English-speaking Caribbean, all land for which there was no land grant was considered property of the British crown. Crown land can be found in every English-speaking island to this day.
How colonial powers controlled the Caribbean over time.
For example, in Barbuda, all land is vested in the “crown in perpetuity” on behalf of Barbudans. This means that an individual born on the island of Barbuda cannot individually own land.
After emancipation from slavery, freed people had no right nor access to land. To build houses, they were forced to lease land from the former enslavers who at a whim could terminate their employment or kick them off the land.
This led to the development of a particular type of housing structure known as chattel houses in countries such as Barbados. These houses are tiny and were constructed in a way in which they could be easily taken apart and loaded onto carts, should the residents be forced out by their former enslavers. Many Bajans still live in these houses today, although quite a few have been converted to restaurants or shops.
In Aruba, Bonaire and Curaçao, owned by the Dutch, slave huts were built along the coast, on land not suitable for agriculture and easily damaged by storms. These former slave huts are now tourist attractions, but the colonial patterns of settling along the coast has left many coastal communities exposed to hurricane damage and rising seas.
The vulnerability of such houses is not only a result of their exposure to natural hazards but also the underlying social structures.
In many islands today, poorer residents can’t afford protective measures, such as installing storm shutters or purchasing solar-powered generators.
They often live in marginal and disaster-prone areas, such as steep hillsides, where housing tends to be cheaper. Houses in these areas are also often poorly constructed with low-grade materials, such as galvanized sheeting for roofs and walls.
This situation is made worse by the informal and unregulated nature of residential housing construction in the region and the poor enforcement of building codes.
Due to the legacy of colonialism, most housing or building standards or codes in the Commonwealth Caribbean are relics from the United Kingdom and in the French Antilles from France. Building standards across the region lack uniformity and are generally subjective and uncontrolled. Financial limitations and staffing constraints mean that codes and standards more often than not remain unenforced.
Progress, but still a lot of work to do
The Caribbean has made progress in developing wind-related building codes to try to increase resilience in recent years. And while damage from torrential rain is still not properly addressed in most Caribbean building standards, scientific guidance is available through the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology in Barbados.
Construction standards can help the islands build resilience. But work remains to be done to overcome the legacy of colonial-era land policies and development that have left island towns vulnerable to increasing storm risks.
Farah Nibbs does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
In one of the most haunting scenes of Stephen King’s 1975 novel “Salem’s Lot,” a gravedigger named Mike Ryerson races to bury the coffin of a local boy named Danny Glick. As night approaches, a troubling thought overtakes Mike: Danny has been buried with his eyes open. Worse, Mike senses that Danny is looking through the closed coffin back at him.
A mania overcomes Mike. Prayers run through his head – “the ways things like that will for no good reason.” Then more disturbing thoughts intrude: “Now I bring you spoiled meat and reeking flesh.” Mike leaps into the hole he’s dug and furiously shovels soil off the coffin. The reader knows what he’s going to do, but ought not to do, next: Mike will open the coffin, freeing whatever Danny has become.
Enter the whip-poor-wills. Several of them, King writes, “had begun to lift their shrilling call,” the demand for violence that gives the species its name: whip-poor-will.
This isn’t the first time whip-poor-wills appear in “Salem’s Lot,” nor is it the last time King would invoke them in his work. But despite the importance of the species to King, whip-poor-wills never appear in film and television adaptations of “Salem’s Lot.”
Released on Oct. 3, 2024, the most recent adaptation of “Salem’s Lot” incorporates birdsong but makes little use of them. Here and there, an American crow or blue jay calls. Sparrowlike chirps pepper scenes at night. And as Mike unburies the undead Danny, the less threatening call of a barred owl replaces that of whip-poor-wills.
The whip-poor-will got its name from the male’s three-note call that sounds like it’s wailing, ‘Whip poor will.’
As a cultural sociologist writing a book about eastern whip-poor-wills, I’m interested in this omission not because it reflects an unfaithful recreation of King’s novel. Rather, I see the erasure of whip-poor-wills from “Salem’s Lot” as a symptom of broader ecological changes, one in which species loss is also tied to cultural loss.
Perhaps the best known whip-poor-wills in American horror appear in H.P. Lovecraft’s novella “The Dunwich Horror.” Lovecraft references the species nearly two dozen times in his story, with the birds often appearing around the deaths of the Whateley family, who live in the fictional town of Dunwich, Massachusetts.
By behaving in ways that real whip-poor-wills never do, Dunwich’s nightjars symbolize the horrors the Whateleys unleash on the townspeople. The birds also act as psychopomps: beings who guide the souls of the newly deceased to the afterlife.
Dunwich’s whip-poor-wills remain in the town until Halloween – “unnaturally belated,” Lovecraft writes – as they chant in unison with the dying breaths of Whateleys. (Indeed, most whip-poor-wills leave the Northeast by the end of September, and they usually don’t coordinate their singing.) But though whip-poor-wills are essential to the plot of “The Dunwich Horror,” another common owl, this one a great horned owl, replaces whip-poor-wills in the 1970 film adaptation of Lovecraft’s story.
King, too, uses whip-poor-wills to great effect. In “Jerusalem’s Lot,” the short story King later published as a prelude to “Salem’s Lot,” whip-poor-wills haunt the Maine town. And in his 1989 novel “The Dark Half,” King references the lore of whip-poor-wills as psychopomps.
Lovecraft’s and King’s fictional whip-poor-wills draw on widespread Indigenous, European and American beliefs about the species. A whip-poor-will singing near one’s home was an especially ominous sign, usually meaning that death would soon take someone in the house. An 1892 article in the American Journal of Folklore documents this belief in King’s home state, Maine. It also offers a story, probably apocryphal, as evidence: “A whippoorwill sang at a back door repeatedly; finally, the woman’s son was brought home dead, and the corpse brought into the house through the back door.”
Birds and belief disappear
For the better part of the 19th and early 20th centuries, whip-poor-will lore circulated among people who encountered the bird. Outside of the world of folklore studies, you can find passing mention of ill omens in the nature writing of Henry David Thoreau and Susan Fenimore Cooper, though neither gave credence to these superstitions. Into the 20th century, local newspapers continued to share lore about the birds with their readers.
But as erasure of the species from horror suggest, broader cultural familiarity with whip-poor-wills has atrophied. In one exception, “Chapelwaite,” a 2021 television series based on King’s “Jerusalem’s Lot,” the characters explicitly discuss the birds’ behaviors, so that viewers understand the reference.
The cultural erasure of whip-poor-wills mirrors the species’ actual decline. Conservationists estimate that eastern whip-poor-will populations have declined by about 70% since the 1970s. This decline is likely leading to what the naturalist Robert Michael Pyle calls the “extinction of experience.” Pyle reasons that when a species declines, people lose opportunities to encounter it in local landscapes and are less likely to be familiar with it in the first place.
Such declines also drive social and cultural losses. This is most stark when a species goes extinct. Consider the passenger pigeon. As the writer Jennifer Price shows in her book “Flight Maps,” the life of Americans was once entwined with the species. When massive flocks of passenger pigeons arrived, communities gathered to hunt the birds, which were once an integral part of the American diet. Now, however, the species is remembered almost exclusively as a symbol of human-induced extinction.
A passenger pigeon pictured in the early 20th century, shortly before the species went extinct. Bettmann/Getty Images
Similarly, the decline of common birds alters people’s relationships to the environment. For instance, in the U.K., the decline of house sparrows robs landscapes of the beloved sight and sound of a once ubiquitous species. The loss of common cuckoos, meanwhile, means that spring arrives in the U.K. without its iconic song.
Beyond cultures of loss
I think we are witnessing similar cultural changes with whip-poor-wills. Their absence in the adaptations of King’s work mirrors their absence both in the landscape and in people’s lives. But though lossand grief rightfully characterize many people’s relationship with whip-poor-wills and other declining species, I want to make a case for hope.
On one hand, there’s reason to be hopeful about the possibility of conservation: Whip-poor-wills appear to respond well to forest management practices that create diverse forests with a mix of younger and older trees. Many places where whip-poor-wills breed have active conservation plans to support the bird and other species that share their habitats.
Nor are whip-poor-wills culturally extinct.
After all, readers still find their way to the works of Lovecraft and King. These and other enduring references to the species offer people an opportunity to find their way back to the bird – and to what the species meant to all those who have cared for them.
Jared Del Rosso does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Canadian politics is at a crossroads. When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau took office in 2015, his open letter to Canadians promised them accountability and transparency. As Trudeau’s time as prime minister seems to be winding down, however, his government has been subject to nearly two dozen conflict-of-interest investigations, with Trudeau himself even violating conflict laws.
Partisan vitriol, electioneering and political brinkmanship are ramping up, with pressing issues like inflation, crime, climate action and housing set to dominate the political news cycle. What must not get lost amid these policy concerns is the urgent need to strengthen Canada’s governmental ethics and accountability laws, especially given the growing Canadian distrust in politicians.
That includes distrust of those in the current government. A 2023 poll found that two-thirds of 1,632 respondents don’t trust the Trudeau government, with only about a third expressing confidence in the Prime Minister’s Office and less than half trusting the House of Commons.
The prime minister’s high-profile conflict-of-interest violations highlight the inadequacy of accountability measures. They illustrate that federal ethics laws need reform, particularly the Conflict of Interest Act that applies to public office holders (the Conflict of Interest Code applies to MPs in their role as MPs while the act applies to MPs in their role as ministers or parliamentary secretaries).
As researchers who focus on the laws of public sector ethics and accountability, we believe ethics issues must be kept in public view and political parties should be pressured to offer meaningful reform ideas in their campaign and party platforms.
Trudeau first breached conflict-of-interest laws in late 2016 and early 2017, when he vacationed with his family on the private Caribbean island of the Aga Khan, a spiritual leader whose foundation is registered to lobby and has received money from the government.
The prime minister accepted private helicopter travel and other gifts, violating multiple sections of the Conflict of Interest Act.
Mary Dawson, the ethics commissioner at the time, found that Trudeau had failed to avoid a conflict or to seek advice from her office before accepting the trip. Despite these conclusions, Trudeau faced no formal punishment.
Trudeau’s second violation was revealed in 2019 amid the SNC-Lavalin affair. In a nutshell, the prime minister attempted to pressure then-Attorney General Jody Wilson-Raybould to intervene in a criminal prosecution against the engineering firm, which has its head offices in the same province as Trudeau’s electoral riding.
The ethics commissioner concluded that Trudeau used his position in an attempt to improperly serve SNC-Lavalin’s interests, breaching provisions of the Conflict of Interest Act. While this scandal rocked the Liberals, Trudeau again faced no real consequences for his actions apart from some ministerial resignations and possibly a failure to gain more Liberal seats in the October 2019 election.
Regardless of which party holds power, a striking flaw in Canada’s political ethics framework is the lack of clear consequences for violating the Conflict of Interest Act. While ethics commissioners have the authority to investigate and report on violations, their reports are published online and submitted to the prime minister, who then decides whether any consequences will apply.
Any penalties the commissioner can impose are laughably small, with administrative monetary penalties of no more than a paltry $500 for failing to meet reporting requirements.
This critical gap places the responsibility for imposing consequences under the act on the person who may have been the one to violate the rules, which is sometimes the leader of the government.
The prime minister decides on the punishment, even if the investigation concerns a cabinet member. This raises concerns about impartiality. Is there any incentive for the prime minister to actually hold colleagues accountable when they violate conflict-of-interest laws?
And what message does it send to an already distrustful electorate when the prime minister and his inner circle can repeatedly violate conflict laws, then determine whether they should face consequences for their actions?
Ongoing ethics concerns
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who was tenacious in 2020 when grilling the prime minister over conflict-of-interest concerns during the WE Charity scandal, seems determined to continue challenging the Liberals on their ethics record.
Poilievre interrogates Trudeau over the prime minister’s third conflict investigation in five years, this one concerning the WE Charity scandal in 2020. (CTV News)
Poilievre’s Conservatives recently raised concerns over the controversial appointment of Mark Carney as a special adviser to the Liberal Party. Being appointed to a party position instead of a government job allows Carney to avoid the ethics commissioner’s scrutiny of his private interests yet still advise government officials.
At the same time, allegations that Trudeau has avoided taking responsibility for foreign interference in Canada’s elections have provided the opposition with further ethics ethics ammunition for an election campaign looming on the horizon.
Given Trudeau’s poor polling numbers, recent reports about Liberal MPs calling for him to step down and the imminence of yet another cabinet shuffle, government ethics and accountability must take centre stage if the country is to rebuild Canadian trust in government. Updating the Conflict of Interest Act would be a strong and necessary starting point.
Ethics aren’t a luxury
Since the Conflict of Interest Act cannot be updated without the involvement of legislators, a cynical observer might wonder how ethics standards can be strengthened.
One answer is that the Conservatives’ relentless push for an election gives the public a perfect opportunity to demand that proposals to improve conflict-of-interest laws are part of the campaign platforms of all parties.
This is exactly what happened in 2006 when Stephen Harper led the Conservatives to victory by pledging a more ethical and accountable Ottawa, although his government ultimately faced its own share of scandals.
Ethical lapses in leadership must not be treated as secondary to pressing economic and social issues. Having a government that continuously strengthens and upholds its ethical standards should not be considered a luxury.
Strong ethical governance is needed to restore and maintain public trust and to ensure our elected officials are working hard on behalf of Canadians — not in their own self-interest.
Ian Stedman receives research funding from SSHRC and CIHR. He is also the 2024-25 Jocelyne Bourgon Visiting Scholar at the Canada School of Public Service.
Matthew Cerilli does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
I didn’t seek out The Vegetarian when I first read it. I was on a book buying ban and in the lucky position to be living with a fellow hoarder. As I perused our combined stacks, a slim volume by an author I hadn’t heard of caught my eye, and I am glad it did. The Vegetarian by Han Kang, is exactly my sort of story: dark, disturbing and beautifully wrought.
Yeong-hye is, as her husband charmingly says, “completely unremarkable in every way” – that is, until she becomes vegetarian. This decision sends her world, and her extended family’s, spinning aggressively off its axis. You may be thinking this is a bit dramatic (vegetarianism is normal), and it is.
The Korean satirical sensibility often disturbs you into realising humanity is messed up. Parasite (winner of the Oscar for best picture in 2020), Oldboy (the 2003 thriller that inspired John Wick) and The Vegetarian are born of the same sort of urgency to expose our shared ability for violence, which they attest is always there, simmering just beneath the surface.
The Vegetarian won the 2016 Man Booker International Prize, and Kang has now emerged as the surprise winner of this year’s Nobel prize in literature. She is one of the youngest writers to win. Artful is a word that comes to mind when thinking about her sparse and beautiful prose, which also manages to be so dense in meaning. It makes sense that Kang is a poet, and this quality in her translations is a testament to her translator, Deborah Smith.
As our writer, Jenni Ramone, notes, The Vegetarian was likely to have been the work that influenced the judging panel the most. Kang manages to fit a lot of horror into this slim text (it’s less than 200 pages) without it feeling crowded. It’s a searing novel, visceral and savage in its imagery, which is so elegantly and economically described.
I am currently in the lucky position of possessing an early reader copy of Kang’s newest novel We Do Not Part, which is out next year. I am so excited to get stuck in. Until then, I urge you to read The Vegetarian and to delve further into Kang’s catalogue, her poetry in particular.
This got us thinking about the difference between writing poetry and prose. Is it obvious that a good poet would write good prose, and vice versa? Answer our poll and reply to this email with your thoughts and examples where poets have written good or bad prose, and prose writers have written bad or good poetry.
Hallyu, the wave of Korean art and culture that has taken the west by storm, is going strong. Literature is getting its moment in the sun right now, and maybe Korea’s art will be next. If you want to be ahead of the curve, you should head down to London’s Southbank where you can catch artist Haegue Yang’s Leap Year at the Hayward Gallery.
The work is bright and bold, Yang is certainly an original and radical. The exhibition is a major retrospective of her work in which you will find collage, sculpture and installations featuring sound and even scent. Our reviewer, Martin Lang, writes: “Yang’s work suggests that art, too, has the power to bridge divides and foster empathy, breaking down barriers between cultures.”
“I remember watching it as a teenager in a lesson at school and once was enough for me,” writes politics academic Mark Lacy of the BBC film Threads, a truly terrifying imagining of the impact of a nuclear war on a city in the north of England from 1984. The film hasn’t been available to watch for decades, but has recently been put on iPlayer for us all to relive its horror.
As Lacy outlines, “it’s a brutal and grim tour of the aftermath of nuclear war, which anyone who viewed it when originally aired may struggle to watch again”. Lacy watched it at a time when the possibility of cold war tensions escalating was very real. While we have certainly been exposed to more nuclear fallout stories since, the film is once again available to watch at a time when the fear of attacks on nuclear facilities is again in the news.
The film The Apprentice also comes at a time of great nervousness as the US election draws near. The film, set in the 1970s and 1980s, charts the business career of presidential hopeful Donald Trump. It centres around Trump’s relationship with the prosecutor Roy Cohn, from whom he is said to have learned underhanded ways of business and Machiavellian dealmaking.
As our reviewer, professor of international relations Michelle Bentley, writes, it comes at a controversial time – with fewer than three weeks until the election. “The film seeks to get inside Trump’s mindset, not only as a businessperson, but unpicking what drove him in the White House, as well as the election he’s now fighting,” writes Bentley, who goes on to explain whether the film will affect the election at all. It is certainly a major event in this dramatic election.
There are so many brilliant music documentaries giving long-deserved dues to musicians who have fallen into obscurity but who had major influence on so many artists and genres. Think the films Searching For Sugarman and Getting It Back: The Story of Cymande. A wonderful new addition to this genre is Harder Than the Rock about the Cimarons.
This lovely piece by sociologist Kenny Monrose is full of childhood anecdotes of their music. The group were the UK’s first reggae band, and looking at the long list of people they worked with, from Bob Marley to Paul McCartney, it’s startling how little known they are – even by the film’s director, Mark Warmington. My colleague Anna said she had a wonderful afternoon editing Monrose’s piece while listening to the band’s music, which you we highly recommend you do too.
Young children spend a lot of time using screens: watching television, playing on touchscreen apps, or facetiming with grandparents. In fact, research on global screen time guidelines has found that around 75% of children aged up to two years use some form of digital media daily, and 64% of children aged two to five years use it for more than an hour a day.
Digital media is part of children’s lives and is set to stay that way. This means it is crucial to understand how to use this technology so children can benefit from it, and how to maximise its educational potential.
A key way to do this is for parents and other adults to use digital media together with children. This is known as co-use, and can range from parents actively discussing the media content with their children to simply watching a show together.
Our recent research with colleagues has investigated how adults using digital media with children aged up to six affects children’s ability to learn from digital media.
We carried out a meta-analysis: a wide-ranging examination of existing research studies to identify trends and themes.
We found that, overall, parent-child co-use is helpful for supporting young children’s learning from digital media. Adults using digital media together with children can help them understand and relate to the digital content better. Our research chimes with other studies which suggest that, for instance, parents using digital media with children can boost language skills.
Our findings suggest that by being actively engaged, adults can help their children make the most of the educational benefits of digital media. This could involve one-to-one interactions directing their child’s attention to the educational content and relating it to real-world situations.
Here are some practical tips for parents to maximise the benefits of co-using digital media with their children.
Be an active participant
Don’t just sit next to your child while they use digital media — engage with them. Ask questions about what they are watching or playing, and encourage them to think critically about the content. For example, if they are watching a video, you might ask “what do you think will happen next?” or “why do you think the character did that?”
‘Scaffold’ learning
Scaffolding is a teaching technique in which parents can provide support to help their child understand new concepts, then let them use that concept by themselves. During co-use, you can scaffold by explaining difficult words, relating on-screen content to real-life experiences, or helping your child apply what they’ve learned from the media to other day-to-day situations.
Choose high-quality content
Not all digital media is created equal. Look for educational content designed to teach specific skills, whether it’s language, maths, or social-emotional learning.
An educational app should have a clear learning goal, include problems for children to solve, and offer clear and specific feedback to support children’s learning. It should be presented with an entertaining narrative.
Apps and shows that encourage interaction and problem-solving are particularly valuable. Other research suggests that the quality of the content plays a crucial role in how much children learn from it.
Encourage discussion and reflection
After engaging with digital media, encourage your child to talk about what they watched or played. This helps reinforce the material and allows you to address any misunderstandings. Reflection helps children make connections between what they’ve learned and their own lives, deepening their understanding. For instance, if a show teaches about penguins, you could follow up by discussing if you might see penguins at the zoo, or which books your child has read that they appear in.
Adapt your approach as your child grows
As children get older, they may need less direct support during media use – but co-use remains valuable. Older children might benefit from discussions that challenge them to think critically about the media they consume. It could help them explore related activities, such as researching a topic they saw in a documentary or creating something inspired by what they watched.
Balance screen time with other activities
Digital media can help children learn. But it’s important to balance screen time with other activities that support development, such as reading, playing outside, and interacting with others face-to-face. Our study emphasises that for digital media to form part of a well-rounded day, families should try to co-use it with their children.
Jamie Lingwood receives funding from Educational Endowment Foundation
Gemma Taylor has previously received funding from the ESRC.
Fungi are known for causing superficial infections of the nails, skin and hair, but they can also cause systemic infections that can have much more serious health implications. Indeed, over 6.5 million people are infected yearly with a life-threatening fungal infection, leading to 3.8 million deaths.
Many of the fungi we know are an essential part of nitrogen and carbon recycling in the environment through their action of decomposing complex material. As they grow, they can undergo “sporulation”, where they release tiny spores that are dispersed on air currents. These spores are breathed in but are usually cleared by the lungs.
However, this clearing is impaired in people with lung issues, such as cystic fibrosis, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, tuberculosis and lung cancer, putting them at a significant risk of developing a fungal lung infection.
Many of the fungal pathogens are resistant to treatment with current drugs – of which only four classes are in use – or can rapidly acquire resistance during treatment or in their natural environment. As with bacteria and antibiotic resistance, so fungi can evolve to become resistant to the drugs used to treat them.
In 2022, the World Health Organization (WHO) published the fungal pathogens priority list that catalogued fungi that pose a significant risk to human health. Of critical importance are Candida albicans and auris, Aspergillus fumigatus and Cryptococcus neoformans.
The WHO list was designed to guide public health action and boost research and awareness in this field. Yet it has become clear that the desired effect of including fungal infections in the antimicrobial resistance policy debate is yet to be achieved. In a recent series of four articles in The Lancet about antimicrobial resistance (which includes resistance to bacteria, fungi, viruses and parasites), the problem of fungal disease contained just five sentences on the issue.
The second UN-hosted meeting on antimicrobial resistance took place on September 26. Aside from the wider acknowledgement of antimicrobial resistance, the meeting drew attention to the growing problem of fungal pathogens and their resistance to known treatments, globally.
Combating drug-resistant fungal infections is a complex problem. An important factor is that diagnoses of infections are often delayed – if they are even diagnosed at all. Simple tests for fungal infections are rarely available and only a few simple lateral flow tests are available.
More sensitive tests require trained personnel and expensive equipment, which is usually not available in laboratories in poorer countries.
Another issue is that antifungal drug development takes a long time and is very expensive. Fungal and human cells are more similar than bacterial and human cells, making finding antifungal targets with minimal toxicity to humans difficult.
Because of this, only several antifungals that work differently to traditional antifungals are being developed. But even after they reach the market, the development of resistance in fungi is a threat to these treatments.
Tons of fungicides are used annually to protect crops, of which some work the same way as antifungals used in humans. An example of this is an antifungal drug class called the azoles. There is strong evidence to suggest that azole resistance in the clinic can be of environmental origin due to agriculturally used azoles.
This is a particular problem in Aspergillus fumigatus, where some hospitals and research centres have reported resistance to azoles in up to 20% of fungal samples.
Over the last 25 years, a compound with a novel mechanism of action has been in development called olorofim. This compound is effective against many fungal pathogens. It is expected to be approved for use in humans soon.
But recently a fungicide for agricultural use, ipflufenoquin, has been approved in the US, that works the same way as olorofim. This makes the risk of resistance to both compounds high as they both target Aspergillus fumigatus the same way – or, in the lingo, they have the same mechanism of action. Resistance to one compound will cause resistance to the other compound.
This is not the only example of the dual-use of antifungals where compounds with the same way of working are used on farms and in hospitals and doctors’ clinics. This is a high risk for resistance development to antifungals we desperately need to treat human infections. The agricultural fungicide aminopyrifen has a similar target to the antifungal fosmanogepix, which can be used to treat humans.
Environmentally acquired resistant fungi can cause infections in patients and therefore, from the first day of treatment, can’t be treated with the desired antifungal. As food security requires antifungal protection from plant pathogens, the question arises: how do we balance human health and crop health?
The latest threat makes these issues more pressing
The rise of fungal pathogens that we have only seen more recently, such as Candida auris, make these issues even more important.
Candida auris is a yeast that was first found in 2009 and has spread globally since. It can cause life-threatening infections and has caused outbreaks in hospitals in several countries, including the UK. Unfortunately, it is resistant to many of the antifungals that are currently available.
The UN-hosted AMR meeting was a good starting point, getting fungi and antimicrobial resistance acknowledged globally. However, it is unclear what specific action will be put into place to combat fungal resistance. But having this discussion is a first step to making progress on an issue that affects so many people daily.
Norman van Rhijn receives funding from Wellcome Trust.
The US Department of Justice may be on the verge of seeking a break-up of Google in a bid to make it less dominant. If the government goes ahead and is successful in the courts, it could mean the company being split into separate entities – a search engine, an advertising company, a video website, a mapping app – which would not be allowed to share data with each other.
While this is still a distant prospect, it is being considered in the wake of a series of rulings in the US and the EU which suggest that regulators are becoming increasingly frustrated by the power of big tech. That power tends to be highly concentrated, whether it’s Google’s monopoly as a search engine, Meta’s data gathering from Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, or by small businesses becoming dependent on Amazon.
But what would a breakup of these tech giants achieve for consumers? Those in favour of shaking up Silicon Valley in this way argue that it would lead to more competition and more choice. And the best-case future scenario might look something like this:
The year is 2030, and you are on your way to meet a friend for a meal. You receive a message notification on WhatsApp, which was sent by your friend using her Signal messaging app. Sending and receiving messages from different apps is now so common you barely notice it.
In fact, “interoperability” – where different systems and tech work seamlessly together – is everywhere. In the same way you could send an email from Gmail to Hotmail back in 2024, you can now choose from a range of social media apps – alongside Instagram, TikTok and Snapchat – with text, pictures and video posted on one network easily accessible via another.
You choose an app because you like the way it looks or the way it filters and presents content – not just because everyone else is on it.
Similarly, your choice of restaurant and information on directions came from apps you have chosen from a much wider selection than the one you had access to back in 2024. You look at reviews produced by people you follow, irrespective of the platform they used to share it.
Product placement and AI-generated content have practically disappeared, as the mapping app does not want to risk giving you advice you don’t want. If it did, you would simply switch to a competitor which provides a superior service.
This increased level of competition is central to those who argue for breaking up big tech. Instead of app developers having to pay 30% of their sales to Google or Apple, there would be numerous app stores available, all competing to offer the best apps by cutting their profit margins. The theory is that the app market – and technological innovation – would thrive as a result.
Research also suggests that the existence of competing apps makes consumers less lazy, and forces businesses to deliver better products, and better value for money.
Private browsing
In 2024, you would have had to trust the results provided to you by Google search, Google Maps, or a Google advert. And because Google owned your data, it could auction information about you to other businesses trying to reach you, without your say.
You might have found Google’s services useful, but most of the benefit from personalised data would have gone to Google. And another big change that could come from breaking up big tech is that you might finally become the unique owner of that data.
Potentially, you would be the only one with full access to your browsing history – the products you searched for, the ones you bought and the ones you almost bought. You would own the information about where you went for lunch, what you ordered, and how much you spent.
Other information that would be owned by you might include how you commute to work, which video clips make you laugh, and which books you finished and the ones you abandoned immediately. The same goes for how you met your partner online, your dating history, and the health data your watch has collected about how hard you work at the gym.
In the imagined year of 2030, you would keep this data on an encrypted server, and different companies would offer apps to help you organise and manage your information. Whenever you wanted to, you could decide to use your data for your own purposes.
Breaking up is hard to do
Splitting up big tech companies is not without risks however. An obvious consequence is that those big companies would be less profitable.
Right now, Google and Meta make (a lot of) money from advertising, and this is only possible because they own so much information about us. If they didn’t, they might end up charging users for the services they provide.
Interoperability and greater competition may also provide more room for scam app operators. And while more choice about apps may be fine for some, it may be problematic for those who find modern technology challenging enough already.
For regulators though, the challenge of modern technology seems to be a sense of powerlessness. And if they do decide to take the radical option and break up dominant companies, it could make a big difference to the online world for all of us.
Renaud Foucart does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
When someone famous dies, particularly if they are young or it was unexpected, it is natural for their fans to want to know what happened. But, as the reporting on the tragic death of singer Liam Payne shows, the media does not always handle this appropriately or ethically.
The singer, 31, fell to his death from the third floor of a hotel in Buenos Aires while under the influence of “drugs or alcohol”, local police said. LA-based celebrity news website TMZ initially reported the story alongside graphic images of Payne’s body.
After a backlash, TMZ removed the photos, but executive editor Michael Babock defended publication, claiming the site was “trying to confirm reports Liam had died before police had established his identity”.
Other mainstream outlets published transcripts or recordings of a 911 call made to police shortly before Payne was found, and an Argentinian newspaper published images of Payne’s hotel room which included images of drugs paraphernalia.
This is certainly not the first time the media, and TMZ in particular, has come under fire for insensitive or harmful reporting of celebrity deaths. When basketball great Kobe Bryant died in a helicopter crash in January 2020, TMZ shared the news before police were able to notify his family. Bryant’s widow later testified that she learned of her husband and daughter’s deaths through social media. This breaches the UK’s journalism codes of practice.
In their quest to get a scoop, what precautions and sensitivities do journalists have to respect when it comes to reporting sudden and tragic deaths?
Media guidelines and ethics
The ethical standards and guidelines vary from country to country. In the UK,
these are set out by the Independent Press Standards Organisation (Ipso) and independent press monitor Impress for print media, and by Ofcom for broadcasters.
An Ipso clause around intrusion into grief and shock says journalists should make enquiries with “sympathy and discretion” and publication should be handled “sensitively”.
Ofcom has similar guidelines for broadcasters. The section on privacy states: “When people are caught up in events which are covered by the news they still have a right to privacy.”
This can be infringed if “warranted”, says Ofcom, for example if it is in the public interest. This could include revealing or detecting crime, protecting public health or safety, exposing misleading claims or disclosing incompetence. But a tragic death, even of a high profile person, is unlikely to meet this standard.
Broadcasters should not interview or film people who have experienced a personal tragedy unless it is “warranted” or they have given consent. And journalists are advised not to “reveal the identity of someone who has died unless it is clear that the next of kin have been informed”.
Impress, which regulates more independent journalism, has released a statement condemning the reporting of Payne’s death.
It said: “The defence of publishing in the public interest does not give outlets carte blanche to report the most intimate details of a celebrity’s life, or their death.”
It is important to state at this stage that what happened prior to Payne’s tragic death and his intentions at the time are unknown. It is the job of the coroner to investigate and come to a conclusion at his inquest.
The effect of reporting on tragedy
Beyond accuracy and respect for the victim of a tragedy and their family, there are wider concerns that journalists should take into account.
Research conducted by the World Health Organization (WHO) has shown irresponsible media reporting of celebrity deaths, particularly suicides, can increase suicide rates.
One study examining patterns of suicide and media coverage found that in the five months following comic Robin Williams’ death in 2014, there were 1,841 more deaths from suicide in the USA compared to the same period the previous year – a 9.85% rise.
The WHO’s international guidelines for reporting suicide urge the media to avoid sensationalism. Journalists should not provide details about methods, and should include information about mental health resources in stories.
Analysis of over 100 academic studies found repeated coverage and high-profile news stories were most strongly associated with copycat behaviour.
The WHO states: “Such stories can inadvertently function as celebrity endorsements of suicidal behaviour and it is known that celebrity endorsements can have an impact on behaviour of the public.”
Sensitive reporting can reduce the risk of copycat suicides. Providing context in relation to mental health challenges and offering resources for support is vital.
In the UK, guidelines were first drawn up by the Samaritans charity in 1994 to improve reporting on suicide and prevent copycat attempts. These are taught to journalism students on courses accredited by the National Council for the Training of Journalists.
Guidance includes avoiding “dramatic” headlines, emotive or sensational pictures or video footage and excessive amounts of coverage. Not speculating about the trigger or cause is urged, because it can oversimplify the issue.
“Coverage that reflects the wider issues around suicide, including that it is preventable, can help reduce the risk of suicidal behaviour”, the guidelines state. “Include clear and direct references to resources and support organisations.”
Making a change
Despite all of these guidelines, many media outlets flout them in the race for clicks. It is heartening that there has been so much outrage at the publication of the images of Payne, but some members of the public still seem to have an insatiable appetite for it. Nothing, it seems, is off limits.
We need to take collective responsibility. Journalists and editors should reacquaint themselves with responsible reporting guidelines and put themselves in the bereaved family’s shoes. Members of the public can also do their bit by not clicking on or sharing this kind of material, so editorial priorities change.
Ultimately, our thoughts must be with Payne and his loved ones. A death so young is a real tragedy and those who loved him will be affected for the rest of their lives.
If you’re struggling with suicidal thoughts, the following services can provide you with support:
In the UK and Ireland – call Samaritans UK at 116 123.
In the US – call the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 1-800-273-TALK (8255) or IMAlive at 1-800-784-2433.
In Australia – call Lifeline Australia at 13 11 14.
In other countries – visit IASP or Suicide.org to find a helpline in your country.
Polly Rippon does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Amanda Cole, Lecturer in Department of Language and Linguistics, University of Essex
On October 21 1964, the iconic and much-celebrated film My Fair Lady premiered in Hollywood. Sixty years later, the film remains an enjoyable rollick full of catchy songs, but is not a wholly accurate depiction of what linguists do – certainly not nowadays at least.
Linguists are far from the academics who are most frequently depicted in films. It’s normally the white-coat, work-in-a-lab, scientist-of-some-nondescript-sort professors who get to give stark warnings or unsettling research insights to the maverick protagonist. But My Fair Lady is a film all about linguistics (and also class, love and terrible Cockney accents – more on that later).
In the film, Professor Henry Higgins (Rex Harrison), takes under his wing a Cockney flower seller called Eliza Doolittle (Audrey Hepburn). He wagers with his friend and fellow haughty linguist, Colonel Pickering, that he can teach her to speak “properly”.
It seems at first there is no hope but – hoorah! – Eliza finally grasps it, suddenly blurting out “the rain in Spain stays mainly in the plain” in a perfect imitation of Queen’s English.
Doolittle then dazzles at an embassy ball, the perfect replica of an upstanding posh woman – or, as the film’s title suggests, a “lady” (itself a problematic word which encodes sexist tropes about what should be aspirational and respectable for women).
She even fools a man who has made a name for himself by identifying imposters based on their accent. Though, you may also wonder if she evades detection by barely speaking at the ball, converted into a demure and unforthcoming shadow of her previously forthright, unapologetic and garrulous self.
Professor Higgins: not your typical linguist
My Fair Lady avoids the common pitfall of assuming that the primary endeavour of the linguist is to learn as many different languages as they can, collecting them like stamps (the film Arrival can take note). But it still doesn’t get our job quite right.
I, for one, have never groomed a young, destitute woman to speak “correctly” while moulding her into a “respectable”, posh woman (if only modern academia granted the breathing space for such folly).
Linguists love, celebrate and are constantly itching to understand, study and explore the diverse tapestry of accents, dialects and languages that exist in the UK and around the world. We have no interest in reinforcing any societal ideal for a supposedly “correct” accent, or throwing a grammar rule book at unwitting members of the public.
By contrast, Higgins is repulsed by any accent that is not Queen’s English (which, by a wonderful turn of luck, is also his accent). In the opening number, he has a pop at the dialects of Yorkshire, Cornwall, America, Scotland and Ireland.
But he is particularly dismayed and repulsed that Doolittle, despite being from London, has a strong London accent (or she is meant to at least – I can only imagine Hepburn was instructed to open her mouth as wide as possible for all vowels and caw like a crow if all else fails).
Higgins makes various proclamations which will have you shouting at the telly, “Steady on, Professor!”. In his words:
Look at her, a prisoner of the gutter / Condemned by every syllable she ever utters / By right, she should be taken out and hung for the cold-blooded murder of the English tongue.
Best not tell him “hanged” is the past tense of “hang” when referring to capital punishment, else he walk himself straight to the gallows.
With a little bit of accent prejudice
The real beast in disguise at the embassy ball is not young, Cockney, Eliza Doolittle. It is misogyny and contempt for the working class that hides behind a mask of maintaining good standards and protecting the English language.
Accent prejudice is a smokescreen for broader societal prejudice. My Fair Lady seems antiquated and quaint in many ways – like Higgins using a gramophone to play back recordings of Doolittle – but accent prejudice is alive and well.
Women in the UK such as Alex Scott, Angela Rayner and Priti Patel still routinely face criticism, commentary and contempt for their regional accents.
You might think that the film’s lesson is for Doolittle to take on the world with her freshly mastered “standard” accent. After all, she consented to being ridiculed and paraded around like a show dog as she felt her accent prevented her from getting a job in a flower shop. Now, nothing stands in her way.
But people should not have to change their accent to get along – and it is not always possible or even a guaranteed ticket out of discrimination. If we take the accent out of accent prejudice, we are still left with the prejudice – let’s remove the prejudice and be left with the accent.
We need more unapologetically working-class women with regional accents at the embassy ball, but also in politics, academia, in the media and in all walks of life.
In the film, Doolittle ultimately feels she has been used and disrespected, leading her to sour on Higgins. After she leaves, he grows to miss her and wistfully plays back recordings of her voice.
And this is the real lesson for viewers today. Higgins has gotten to know Doolittle as a person and now sees beyond her accent and his own prejudice. The more we hear people with regional accents, the more normal and uneventful it becomes, and the more we will focus on what they say and not how they say it.
Amanda Cole does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Myles Allen, Professor of Geosystem Science, Director of Oxford Net Zero, University of Oxford
Kodda / Shutterstock
The UK government has given the go-ahead to carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) schemes worth £22 billion (US$28.6 billion). Critics are insisting that this technology – which involves capturing carbon as it is emitted or taking it back out of the atmosphere, then pumping it into rocks deep underground – is unsafe, unproven and unaffordable. Defenders are responding with painstaking rebuttals.
Could the whole debate be missing the point? I think it is better to focus on the big picture – why we need CCS to work – rather than playing whack-a-mole with every objection to individual projects.
The case for CCS boils down to waste disposal: we are going to make too much carbon dioxide (CO₂), so we need to start getting rid of it, permanently.
By burning fossil fuels and producing cement alone, we will generate more CO₂ than we can afford to dump into the atmosphere to have any chance of limiting global warming to close to 1.5°C – even after accounting for the capacity of the biosphere and oceans to mop it up.
So, we need to start disposing of that CO₂, safely and permanently, on a scale of billions of tonnes a year by mid-century. And the only proven way of doing this right now is to re-inject it back underground.
Keep our options open
The world is not giving up fossil fuels any time soon, and the transition is going to be difficult enough without tying our hands by ruling out using CCS technology.
The questions we should be asking are: will “green hydrogen” – a low-carbon fuel produced from water using renewable electricity – be a cheaper way of dealing with lulls in renewable energy generation than gas-fired power plants fitted with CCS? And, can we get by entirely on recycled steel, and eliminate the use of conventional cement in construction, when steel and cement are notoriously hard to produce without fossil fuels?
If the answer to any of these questions, anywhere in the world, turns out to be “no” – or even “not by 2050” – then we need CCS.
Would taking CCS off the table focus minds and make us abandon fossil fuels faster? Perhaps, but it could equally make us abandon climate targets – ultimately, the most expensive option of all.
We should be conscious of “lifecycle emissions” for all forms of energy – including, for example, green hydrogen made with electricity from solar panels that were manufactured using coal-fired power. The right response is to find cleaner suppliers of solar panels for green hydrogen, and cleaner suppliers of gas for blue hydrogen. The wrong response is to give up on either fuel source.
Nature is maxed out
What about offsetting continued fossil fuel use with nature-based solutions, such as restoring ecosystems and rewilding? Unfortunately, we are already maxing out nature’s credit card.
In the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) scenarios in which warming is kept close to 1.5°C, we need to eliminate deforestation almost immediately, and restore a cumulative total of 250 billion tonnes of CO₂ to the biosphere over the coming 75 years – by restoring forests and wetlands, for example.
Over the same period, we also need to dispose of four times that amount of CO₂ back underground through various forms of CCS – after slashing the amount of CO₂ we produce by 75%-80%.
We cannot bank on stuffing an additional trillion tonnes of CO₂ into the biosphere over the next 75 years – especially as more Earth system feedbacks emerge and accelerate, whereby carbon stored at the Earth’s surface is re-released to the atmosphere as the world warms, forests burn, and peatlands dry out.
Invest, but invest wisely
To limit global warming to the extent the planet urgently requires, we need a means of permanent CO₂ disposal that does not make further demands on the biosphere. But at the same time as enabling CCS technology, we also need to make sure its availability does not encourage yet more CO₂ emissions.
This is where critics of government policy may have a point. If CCS is widely available and heavily subsidised, will that just encourage individuals and companies to use more fossil fuels? The danger is real, but it doesn’t mean we should abandon CCS. We need to be smart about how it is implemented.
Given the way the first CCS projects were set up by the previous UK government, an initial injection of £22 billion from taxpayers is, by now, the only way to kickstart a CO₂ disposal industry. But this should not become an endless subsidy which allows private industry to keep profiting from selling the stuff that causes global warming, while taxpayers pay for the clean-up.
The UK government could make it clear that, by mid-century, anyone selling fossil fuels in the UK will be responsible for permanently disposing all CO₂ generated by their activities and the products they sell.
Pricing in safe CO₂ disposal would make fossil fuels more expensive, potentially adding 5p per kWh to the cost of natural gas over the next 25 years. That’s cheap compared with the cost of just dumping CO₂ into the atmosphere.
It is possible, and even affordable, to ensure fossil fuel use falls to meet our available CO₂ disposal capacity. There again, building a global CO₂ disposal industry from a standing start in only 25 years will be hard.
Fortunately, the UK has the right geology, skills and expertise, as well as a history of innovation in climate policy. It also has a clear interest in getting involved in what should become one of the major industries of the second half of this century. And it has a moral obligation, having pioneered taking fossil carbon out of the Earth’s crust, to join the first wave of countries putting it back.
Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Myles Allen receives funding from the Strategic Research Fund of the University of Oxford and the European Commission. He is a member of the Advisory Board of Puro.Earth.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Kieran Maguire, Senior Teacher in Accountancy and member of Football Industries Group, University of Liverpool
When the Premier League broke away from the rest of English football in 1992, its 22 clubs generated £205 million in its debut season, and the average player earned £2,050 a week. Thirty years later, despite having two fewer clubs, the league’s revenue had increased by 2,850% to £6.1 billion and the average player earned £93,000 a week.
At the heart of this extraordinary growth is an American revolution. In the Premier League’s inaugural season, football was still in recovery from the horrors of the stadium disasters at Hillsborough and Heysel. Owners tended to be from the local area and with a business background. The only foreign owner was Sam Hamman at Wimbledon, a Lebanese millionaire who bought the club on a whim having reportedly been much more interested in tennis. The season ended with Manchester United (under Alex Ferguson) winning the English game’s top league for the first time in 26 years.
Now, if the Texas-based Friedkin Group’s recent deal to buy Everton goes through, 11 of the 20 Premier League clubs will be controlled or part-owned by American investors. The US – long seen as football’s final frontier when it comes to the men’s game – suddenly can’t get enough of English “soccer”.
Four of the Premier League’s “big six” are American-owned – Manchester United, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea – while a fifth, Manchester City, has a significant US minority shareholding. Aston Villa, Fulham, Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, West Ham and Ipswich Town also have varying degrees of American ownership.
And it’s not even just the glamour clubs at the top of the tree. American investment has also been significant lower down the football pyramid, led by the high-profile acquisition of then non-league Wrexham by Hollywood actors Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenny, and Birmingham City’s purchase by US investors including seven-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady. American investment in football has reached places as geographically diverse as Carlisle and Crawley in England, and Aberdeen and Edinburgh in Scotland.
The Insights section is committed to high-quality longform journalism. Our editors work with academics from many different backgrounds who are tackling a wide range of societal and scientific challenges.
Manchester United was the first Premier League club to come under American ownership – after a row about a horse.
In 2005, United was owned by a variety of investors including Irish businessmen and racehorse owners John Magnier and J.P. McManus. Their erstwhile friend Ferguson, the United manager, thought he co-owned the champion racehorse Rock of Gibraltar with them – a stallion worth millions in stud rights. They disagreed – and their bitter dispute was such that Magnier and McManus decided to sell their shares in the football club.
The Miami-based Glazer family – already involved in sport as owners of NFL franchise the Tampa Bay Buccaneers – had already been buying up small tranches of shares in United, but the sudden availability of the Irish shares allowed Malcolm Glazer to acquire a controlling stake for £790 million (around £1.5 billion at today’s prices).
The fact Glazer did not actually have sufficient funds to pay for these shares was a solvable problem. In the some-might-say commercially naive world of top-flight English football before the Premier League, Manchester United was a club without debt, paying its way without leveraging its position as one of the world’s most famous football clubs. Glazer saw the opportunity this presented and arranged a leveraged buy-out (LBO), whereby the football club borrowed more than £600 million secured on its own assets to, in effect, “buy itself” in 2005.
Despite the need to meet the high interest costs to fund the LBO, United continued winning trophies under Ferguson – including three Premier League titles in a row in 2007, 2008 and 2009, as well as a Champions League victory in 2008. Amid this success, the club felt that ticket prices were too low and set about increasing them, with matchday revenue increasing from £66 million in 2004/05 to over £101 million by 2007/08.
Commercial income was another area the Glazers were keen to increase. United set up offices in London and adopted a global approach to finding new official branding deals ranging from snacks to tractor and tyre suppliers – doubling revenues from this income source too.
But in this new, more aggressive world of “sweating the asset”, the debts lingered – and most United fans remained deeply suspicious of their American owners. (Following their father’s death in 2014, the club was co-owned by his six children, with brothers Avram and Joel Glazer becoming co-chairmen.)
Today, despite its partial listing on the New York Stock Exchange and the February 2024 sale of 27.7% of the club to British billionaire Sir Jim Ratcliffe for a reputed £1.25 billion, United still has borrowings of more than £546 million, having paid cumulative interest costs of £969 million since the takeover in 2005. But with the club now valued at US$6.55 billion (around £5bn), it represents a very smart investment for the Glazer family.
Indeed, while the prices being paid for football clubs across Europe have reached record levels, they are still seen as cheap investments compared with US sports’ leading franchises. Forbes’s annual list of the world’s most valuable sports teams has American football (NFL), baseball (MLB) and basketball (NBA) teams occupying the top ten positions, with only three Premier League clubs – Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City – in the top 50.
With NFL teams having an average franchise value of US$5.1 billion and NBA $3.9 billion, many English football clubs still look like a bargain from the other side of the pond.
The risk of relegation
The latest to join this US bandwagon, the Friedkin Group – a Texas-based portfolio of companies run by American businessman and film producer Dan Friedkin – is reported to have offered £400m to buy Everton, despite the club’s poor financial state.
“The Toffees” have been hit by loss of sponsorships as well as two sets of points deductions for breaching the Premier League’s financial rules, leading to revenue losses from lower league positions. While the new stadium being built at Liverpool’s Bramley-Moore dock has been yet another financial constraint, it will at least increase matchday income from the start of next season.
Everton’s new stadium at Bramley-Moore dock will open in time for the start of the 2025-26 season. Phil Silverman / Shutterstock
A wider reason for the relative bargain in valuations of European football clubs is the risk of relegation – something that is not part of the closed leagues of most US sports. While the threat of relegation (and promise of promotion) has always been an integral part of English and European football, the jeopardy this brings for supporters – and a club’s finances – does not exist in the NFL, NBA, Major League Soccer and similar competitions.
The Premier League, with its three relegation spots at the end of each season, has featured 51 different clubs since it launched in 1992. Only six clubs – Arsenal, Spurs, Chelsea, Manchester United, Liverpool and Everton – have been ever present, with Arsenal now approaching 100 years of consecutive top-flight football.
Other Premier League clubs have experienced the dramatic cost-benefit of relegation and promotion. Oldham Athletic, who were in the Premier League for its first two seasons, now languish in the fifth tier of the game, outside the English Football League (EFL). In contrast, Luton Town, who were in the fifth tier as recently as 2014, were promoted to the Premier League in 2023 – only to be relegated at the end of last season.
While it is difficult to compare football clubs with basketball and American football teams, the financial difference between having an open league, with relegation, and a closed league becomes apparent when you look at women’s football on both sides of the Atlantic.
Angel City, a women’s soccer team based in Los Angeles, only entered the National Women’s Soccer League (NWSL) in 2022 and is yet to win an NWSL trophy. But last month, the club was sold for US$250 million (£188m) to Disney’s CEO Bob Iger and TV journalist Willow Bay – the most expensive takeover in the history of women’s professional sport.
In comparison, Chelsea – seven-time winners of the English Women’s Super League and one of the most successful sides in Europe – valued its women’s team at £150 million ($US196m) earlier this summer. While there are a number of factors to this price differential, the confidence that Angel City will always be a member of the big league of US soccer clubs – and share very equally in its revenue – will have made its new owners very confident in the long-term soundness of their deal.
The story of Angel City FC, the most expensive team in women’s sport.
A further attraction for American investors is the potential to enter two markets – one mature (men’s football) and one effectively a start-up (the women’s game) – in a single purchase. In the US, the top men’s and women’s clubs are completely separate. But in Europe, most top-flight women’s teams are affiliated to men’s clubs – with the exception of eight-time Women’s Champions League winners Olympique Lyonnais Feminin, which split from the French men’s club when Korean-American businesswoman Michele Kang bought a majority stake in the women’s team in February 2024).
While interest in, and hence value of, the WSL is now growing fast, the women’s game in England is dwarfed by viewer ratings for the Premier League – the most watched sporting league in the world, viewed by an estimated 1.87 billion people every week across 189 countries.
These figures dwarf even the NFL which, while currently still the most valuable of all sporting leagues in terms of its broadcasting deals, must be looking at the growth of the Premier League with some jealousy. This may explain why some US franchise owners, such as Stan Kroenke, the Glazer family, Fenway Sports Group and Billy Foley, have subsequently purchased Premier League football clubs.
Ironically, for many spectators around the world, it is the intensity and competitiveness of most Premier League matches – brought on in part by the threat of relegation and prize of European qualification – that makes it so captivating. However, billionaire investors like guaranteed numbers and dislike risk – especially the degree of financial risk that exists in the Premier League and English Football League.
European not-so-Super League
In April 2021, 12 leading European clubs (six from England plus three each from Spain and Italy) announced the creation of the European Super League (ESL). This new mid-week competition was to be a high-revenue generating, closed competition with (eventually) 15 permanent teams and five annual additions qualifying from Europe. According to one of the driving forces behind the plan, Manchester United co-chairman Joel Glazer:
By bringing together the world’s greatest clubs and players to play each other throughout the season, the Super League will open a new chapter for European football, ensuring world-class competition and facilities, and increased financial support for the wider football pyramid.
The problem facing the Premier League’s “big six” clubs – and their ambitious owners – is there are currently only four slots available to play in the Champions League. So, their thinking went, why not take away the risk of not qualifying? However, the proposal was swiftly condemned by fans around Europe, together with football’s governing bodies and leagues – all of whom saw the ESL proposal as a threat to the quality and integrity of their domestic leagues. Following some large fan protests, including at Chelsea’s Stamford Bridge, Manchester City was the first club to withdraw – followed, within a couple of days, by the rest of the English clubs.
Under the terms of the ESL proposals, founding member clubs would have been guaranteed participation in the competition forever. Guaranteed participation means guaranteed revenues. The current financial gap between the “big six” and the other members of the Premier League, which in 2022/23 averaged £396 million, would have widened rapidly.
For example, these clubs would have been able to sell the broadcast rights for some of their ESL home fixtures direct to fans, instead of via a broadcaster. All of a sudden, that database of fans who have downloaded the official club app, or are on a mailing list, becomes far more valuable. These are the people most willing to watch their favourite team on a pay-per-view basis, further increasing revenues.
At the same time, a planned ESL wage cap would have stopped players taking all these increased revenues in the form of higher wages, allowing these clubs to become more profitable and their ownership even more lucrative.
American-owned Manchester United and Liverpool had previously tried to enhance the value of their investments during the COVID lockdowns era via ProjectBig Picture – proposals to reduce the size of the Premier League and scrap one of the two domestic cup competitions, thus freeing up time for the bigger clubs to arrange more lucrative tours and European matches against high-profile opposition.
Most importantly, Project Big Picture would have resulted in changing the governance of the domestic game. Under its proposals, the “big six” clubs would have enjoyed enhanced voting rights, and therefore been able to significantly influence how the domestic game was governed.
Any attempt to increase the concentration of power raises concerns of lower competitive balance, whereby fewer teams are in the running to win the title and fewer games are meaningful. This is a problem facing some other major European football leagues including France’s Ligue 1, where interest among broadcasters has dwindled amid the perceived dominance of Paris St-Germain.
So while to date, American-led attempts to change the structure of the Premier League have been foiled, it’s unlikely such ideas have gone away for good. The near-universal fear of fans – even those who welcome an injection of extra cash from a new billionaire owner – is that the spectacle of the league will only be diminished if such plans ever succeed.
And there is evidence from the women’s game that the US closed league format is coming under more pressure from football’s global forces. The NWSL recently announced it is removing the draft system that is designed (as with the NFL and NBA) to build in jeopardy and competitive balance when there is no risk of relegation.
Top US women’s football clubs are losing some of their leading players to other leagues, in part because European clubs are not bound by the same artificial rules of employment. In a truly global professional sport such as football, international competition will always tend to destabilise closed leagues.
Why do they keep buying these clubs?
Does this mean that American and other wealthy owners of Premier League clubs seeking to reduce their risks are ultimately fighting a losing battle? And if so, given the potential risks involved in owning a football club – both financial and even personal – why do they keep buying them?
The motivations are part-financial, part technological and, as has always been the case with sports ownership, part-vanity.
The American economy has grown far faster than that of the EU or UK in recent years. Consequently, there are many beneficiaries of this growth who have surplus cash, and here football becomes an attractive proposition. In fact, football clubs are more resilient to recessions than other industries, holding their value better as they are effectively monopoly suppliers for their fans who have brand loyalty that exists in few other industries.
From 1993 to 2018, a period during which the UK economy more than doubled, the total value of Premier League clubs grew 30 times larger. And many fans are tied to supporting one club, helping to make the biggest clubs more resilient to economic changes than other industries. While football, like many parts of the entertainment industry, was hit by lockdown during Covid, no clubs went out of business, despite the challenges of matches being played in empty stadiums.
Added to this, the exchange rates for US dollars have been very favourable until recently, making US investments in the UK and Europe cheaper for American investors.
So, while Manchester United fans would argue that the Glazer family have not been good for the club, United has been good for the Glazers. And Fenway Sports Group (FSG), who bought Liverpool for £300 million in 2010, have recouped almost all of that money in smaller share sales while remaining majority owners of Liverpool.
Despite this, the £2.5 billion price paid for Chelsea by the US Clearlake-Todd Boehly consortium in May 2022 took markets by surprise.
The sale – which came after the UK government froze the assets of the club’s Russian oligarch owner, Roman Abramovich, following the invasion of Ukraine – went through less than a year after Newcastle United had been sold by Sports Direct founder Mike Ashley to the Saudi Arabian Public Investment Fund for £305 million – approximately twice that club’s annual revenues. Yet Clearlake-Boehly were willing to pay over five times Chelsea’s annual revenues to acquire the club, even though it was in a precarious financial position.
Clearlake is a private equity group whose main aim is to make profits for their investors. But unlike most such investors, who tend to focus on cost-cutting, the Chelsea ownership came in with a high-spending strategy using new financial structuring ideas, such as offering longer player contracts to avoid falling foul of football’s profitability and sustainability rules (although this loophole has since been closed with Uefa, European football’s governing body, limiting contract lengths for financial regulation purposes to five years).
Chelsea’s location in the one of the most expensive areas of London, combined with its on-field success under Abramovich, all added to the attraction, of course. But there are other reasons why Clearlake, along with billionaire businessman Boehly, were willing to stump up so much for the club.
From Hollywood to the metaverse
While some British football fans may have viewed the Ted Lasso TV show as an enjoyable if slightly twee fictional account of American involvement in English soccer, it has enhanced the attraction of the sport in the US. So too Welcome To Wrexham – the fly-on-the-wall series covering the (to date) two promotions of Wales’s oldest football club under the unlikely Hollywood stewardship of Reynolds and McElhenney.
Welcome To Wrexham, season one trailer.
The growth in US interest in English football is reflected in the record-breaking Premier League media rights deal in 2022, with NBC Sports reportedly paying $2.7 billion (£2.06bn) for its latest six-year deal.
But as well as football offering one of increasingly few “live shared TV experiences” that carry lucrative advertising slots, there may also be more opportunity for more behind-the-scenes coverage of the Premier League – as has long been seen in US coverage of NBA games, for example, where players are interviewed in the locker room straight after games.
According to Manchester United’s latest annual report, the club now has a “global community of 1.1 billion fans and followers”. Such numbers mean its owners, and many others, are bullish about the potential of the metaverse in terms of offering a matchday experience that could be similar to attending a match, without physically travelling to Manchester.
Their neighbours Manchester City, part-owned by American private equity company Silverlake, broke new (virtual) ground by signing a metaverse deal with Sony in 2022. Virtual reality could give fans around the world the feeling of attending a live match, sitting next to their friends and singing along with the rest of the crowd (for a pay-per-view fee).
Some investors are even confident that advancements in Abba-style avatar technology could one day allow fans to watch live 3D simulations of Premier League matches in stadiums all over the world. Having first-mover advantage by being in the elite club of owners who can make use of such technology could prove ever more rewarding.
More immediately, there are some indications that competitive matches involving England’s top men’s football teams could soon take place in US or other venues. Boehly, Chelsea’s co-owner, has already suggested adopting some US sports staples such as an All-Star match to further boost revenues. Indeed, back in 2008, the Premier League tentatively discussed a “39th game” taking place overseas, but that idea was quickly shelved.
The American owners of Birmingham City were keen to play this season’s EFL League One match against Wrexham in the US, but again this proposal did not get far. Liverpool’s chairman Tom Werner says he is determined to see matches take place overseas, and recent changes to world governing body Fifa’s rulebook could make it easier for this proposal to succeed.
The potential benefits of hosting games overseas include higher matchday revenues, increased brand awareness, and enhanced broadcast rights. While there is likely to be significant opposition from local fans, at least American owners know they would not face the same hostility about rising matchday prices in the US as they have encountered in England.
When the Argentinian legend Lionel Messi signed for new MLS franchise Inter Miami in 2023, season ticket prices nearly doubled on his account. And while there is vocal opposition to higher ticket prices in England, this is not borne out in terms of lower attendances for matches against high-calibre opposition – as evidenced by Aston Villa charging up to £97 for last week’s Champions League meeting with Bayern Munich.
Villa’s director of operations, Chris Heck, defended the prices by saying that difficult decisions had to be made if the club was to be competitive.
Manchester United’s matchday revenue per EPL season (£m)
For much of the 2010s, with broadcast revenues increasing rapidly, many Premier League owners made little effort to stoke hostilities with their loyal fan bases by putting up ticket prices. Indeed, Manchester United generated little more from matchday income in the 2021-22 season, as football emerged from the pandemic, than the club had in 2010-11 (see chart above).
However, this uneasy truce between fans and owners has ceased. The relative flatlining of broadcast revenues since 2017, along with cost control rules that are starting to affect clubs’ ability to spend money on player signings and wages, has changed club appetites for dampened ticket prices. This has resulted in noticeable rises in individual ticket and season ticket prices by some clubs.
However, season ticket and other local “legacy” fans generate little money compared with the more lucrative overseas and tourist fans. They may only watch their favourite team live once a season, but when they visit, they are far more likely not only to pay higher matchday prices, but to spend more on merchandise, catering and other offerings from the club.
Today’s breed of commercially aware, profit-seeking US Premier League owners – pioneered by the Glazer family, who saw that “sweating the asset” meant more than watching football players sprinting hard – understand there is a lot more value to come from English football teams. The clubs’ loyal local supporters may not like it, but English football’s American-led revolution is not done yet.
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Kieran Maguire has taught courses and presented on football finance for the Professional Footballers Association, League Managers Association, FIFA and national football associations in Europe.
Christina Philippou is affiliated with the RAF FA, and Premier League education programs.
The artificial intelligence boom has already changed how we understand technology and the world. But developing and updating AI programs requires a lot of computing power. This relies heavily on servers in data centres, at a great cost in terms of carbon emissions and resource use.
One particularly energy intensive task is “training”, where generative AI systems are exposed to vast amounts of data so that they improve at what they do.
The development of AI-based systems has been blamed for a 48% increase in Google’s greenhouse gas emissions over five years. This will make it harder for the tech giant to achieve its goal of reaching net zero by 2030.
Some in the industry justify the extra energy expenditure from AI by pointing to benefits the technology could have for environmental sustainability and climate action. Improving the efficiency of solar and wind power through predicting weather patterns, “smart” agriculture and more efficient, electric autonomous vehicles are among the purported benefits of AI for the Earth.
It’s against this background that tech companies have been looking to renewables and nuclear fission to supply electricity to their data centres.
Nuclear fission is the type of nuclear power that’s been in use around the world for decades. It releases energy by splitting a heavy chemical element to form lighter ones. Fission is one thing, but some in Silicon Valley feel a different technology will be needed to plug the gap: nuclear fusion.
Unlike fission, nuclear fusion produces energy by combining two light elements to make a heavier one. But fusion energy is an unproven solution to the sustainability challenge of AI. And the enthusiasm of tech CEOs for this technology as an AI energy supply risks sidelining the potential benefits for the planet.
Beyond the conventional
Google recently announced that it had signed a deal to buy energy from small nuclear reactors. This is a technology, based on nuclear fission, that allows useful amounts of power to be produced from much smaller devices than the huge reactors in big nuclear power plants. Google plans to use these small reactors to generate the power needed for the rise in use of AI.
This year, Microsoft announced an agreement with the company Constellation Energy, which could pave the way to restart a reactor at Pennsylvania’s Three Mile Island nuclear power station, the site of the worst nuclear accident in US history.
However, nuclear power produces long-lived radioactive waste, which needs to be stored securely. Nuclear fuels, such as the element uranium (which needs to be mined), are finite, so the technology is not considered renewable. Renewable sources of energy, such as solar and wind power suffer from “intermittency”, meaning they do not consistently produce energy at all hours of the day.
These limitations have driven some to look to look to nuclear fusion as a solution. Most notably, Sam Altman of OpenAI has shown particular interest in Helion Energy, a fusion startup working on a relatively novel technological design.
In theory, nuclear fusion offers a “holy grail” energy source by generating a large output of energy from small quantities of fuel, with no greenhouse gas emissions from the process and comparatively little radioactive waste. Some forms of fusion rely on a fuel called deuterium, a form of hydrogen, which can be extracted from an abundant source: seawater.
In the eyes of its advocates, like Altman, these qualities make nuclear fusion well suited to meet the challenges of growing energy demand in the face of the climate crisis –- and to meet the vast demands of AI development.
However, dig beneath the surface and the picture isn’t so rosy. Despite the hopes of its proponents, fusion technologies have yet to produce sustained net energy output (more energy than is put in to run the reactor), let alone produce energy at the scale required to meet the growing demands of AI. Fusion will require many more technological developments before it can fulfil its promise of delivering power to the grid.
Wealthy and powerful people, such as the CEOs of giant technology companies, can strongly influence how new technology is developed. For example, there are many different technological ways to perform nuclear fusion. But the particular route to fusion that is useful for meeting the energy demands of AI might not be the one that’s ideal for meeting people’s general energy needs.
Innovators often take for granted that their work will produce ideal social outcomes. If fusion can be made to work at scale, it could make a valuable contribution to decarbonising our energy supplies as the world seeks to tackle the climate crisis.
However, the humanitarian promises of both fusion and AI often seem to be sidelined in favour of scientific innovation and progress. Indeed, when looking at those invested in these technologies, it is worth asking who actually benefits from them.
Will investment in fusion for AI purposes enable its wider take-up as a clean technology to replace polluting fossil fuels? Or will a vision for the technology propagated by powerful tech companies restrict its use for other purposes?
It can sometimes feel as if innovation is itself the goal, with much less consideration of the wider impact. This vision has echoes of Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s motto of “move fast and break things”, where short-term losses are accepted in pursuit of a future vision that will later justify the means.
Sophie Cogan receives funding from the EPSRC Fusion Centre for Doctoral Training.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Martina Egedusevic, PhD Candidate, Impact Fellow (Green Futures Solutions), University of Exeter
Think of flood prevention and you might imagine huge concrete dams, levees or the shiny Thames barrier. But some of the most powerful tools for reducing flood risk are far more natural and widely recognisable: woodlands and green spaces. Trees offer much more than beauty and oxygen. Here’s how trees help to protect us from floods.
1. Intercepting rainfall
Trees and green spaces hold the key to protecting us against flooding. When rain falls on a forest, trees play a vital role in managing water flow. The canopy of a forest acts like a giant umbrella, catching and holding rainwater before it hits the ground.
This slows down how quickly rain reaches the soil, allowing water to gradually seep into the earth instead of rushing over the ground and straight into rivers and watercourses. This delayed water flow can reduce peak water levels in rivers during heavy storms, helping to prevent flash floods.
One of us (Martina) was involved in a two-year study, which has not been peer reviewed, that used sensor equipment to measure the speed and level of surface water at various locations along two streams in the Menstrie catchment area in Scotland: one with greater tree cover and another with less.
The stream with more trees appeared to have consistently reduced flow discharges compared with the more barren stream. This suggests that young forests may be able to dramatically reduce water runoff during rainfall, potentially preventing water from overwhelming streams and rivers.
As trees grow and mature, their effect on water management could become even more significant. This study adds to a growing body of evidence that shows forests offer a natural defence against floods.
Trees are one of our best allies in adapting to the increasing risks posed by climate change. Trees also remove water from catchments via evapotranspiration, whereby moisture evaporates from the surface of the soil and is released from the plant’s leaves and other surfaces.
Importantly, these processes aren’t just relevant at the scale of rural, catchments. We can use the benefits of trees and plants in our towns and cities as targeted small-scale interventions.
2. Keeping rivers clean
Trees help keep rivers clean and healthy. When there are no trees, rain can wash away a lot of soil (and pollutants) into rivers. This might lead to them having a reduced capacity to convey water. But tree roots act like anchors, binding the soil in place and preventing it from flowing into rivers.
This keeps the rivers clear and stops sedimentation, helping them cope with flood waters better. That, in turn, can prevent flooding and maintain river capacity to protect against future flooding.
In places like the Menstrie catchment, planting trees around rivers helps trap dirt and sediment in the upper parts of the river, keeping the lower parts cleaner.
Ploughed ground can better capture sediment across the catchment because the plough lines act as barriers. They keep the sediment in place more efficiently than other techniques, such as hand-screefing (when someone clears a small spot of ground by hand to plant a tree) and excavator mounding (a process that uses a machine to build little hills to help trees grow better in wet areas), which were less successful in containing the sediment.
Evidence shows that trees are essential for long-term soil stabilisation. Cultivation methods and forestry practices therefore play a crucial role in managing erosion and sediment flow.
3. Absorbing and storing water like sponges
Trees improve the soil’s ability to soak up water. Their roots channel deep into the ground, creating preferential flow paths that allow water to absorb into the soil profile, rather than run off on the surface. This process helps reduce the amount of water rushing towards rivers and streams after a heavy rainstorm, which is a major factor in slowing the flow of water and reducing flooding.
How trees are planted, the slope of the land and the type of soil all affect how much water runs off during rainfall. Different planting techniques affect water runoff differently depending on the amount of rain.
During floods, some areas with trees planted (that includes plots with plough cultivation and excavation mounding) have less water runoff compared with unplanted areas without trees.
4. Reducing surface runoff
When heavy rain falls on bare land, water runs off quickly, which can cause floods. Trees, with their roots and fallen leaves, slow this down by helping the ground soak up more water.
This reduces how much water flows into rivers all at once, helping to prevent floods. Planting trees using different layouts, densities and patterns can make this even more effective by helping trees grow better and absorb more water, thereby reducing runoff.
5. Stopping floodwaters
In Somerset, England tree planting projects along rivers, such as those under the Environment Agency’s initiative, have played a crucial role in reducing flood risks.
Since 2020, almost 30,000 trees and shrubs were planted across multiple sites to help slow water flow and protect communities vulnerable to flooding. These trees were strategically placed along riverbanks, including in the Parrett catchment in Somerset, an area known to be prone to flooding.
Underground, tree roots drink up lots of water, slowing how quickly the rainwater flows. And when floodwater hits a forest, the tree trunks act like a natural barrier or wall, slowing the water down so it doesn’t rush all at once to other areas and cause bigger floods. By planning and planting forests to build climate resilience, these positive effects can become even stronger.
Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Martina Egedusevic receives funding from the Scottish Forestry Trust.
Daniel Green works for Heriot-Watt University as an Assistant Professor in Nature-based Solutions. He is also a Research Associate at the Royal Botanic Garden Edinburgh.
Lucy Letby, a former neonatal nurse, was convicted after two trials of murdering seven babies and attempting to murder seven more at the Countess of Chester Hospital. Sentenced to life imprisonment following a case which many believe was built on circumstantial evidence, Letby has consistently maintained her innocence.
In a recent interview on LBC, the UK government’s health secretary, Wes Streeting, was asked for his opinion on those questioning the safety of Letby’s convictions.
Streeting’s reply urged campaigners to place their faith in the judicial and appellate processes to identify and correct their mistakes, if any. He added that there was no purpose in campaigning as it would have no impact and that if people insisted on doing so, they should do it “quietly”.
But my research shows that Streeting’s comments are not reflective of the broader history of miscarriages of justice.
Wes Streeting on Lucy Letby’s conviction.
Letby’s first trial was preceded by the publication of a report by the Royal Statistical Society in September 2022 detailing how statistical issues in the investigation of suspected murders in medical settings can contribute to causing miscarriages of justice. It drew attention to the case of Dutch nurse Lucia de Berk who was convicted in circumstances which shared striking similarities with the Letby case.
Almost six months after Letby’s conviction in August 2023, the New Yorker magazine published an article challenging the prosecution’s account of events. And a body called Science on Trial, which calls out “problematic science”, also began raising questions. This sparked further scrutiny from journalist Peter Hitchens, who continues to express his doubts in the press.
National publications, radio programmes and TV broadcasts featuring prominent medical experts have also raised doubts about the evidence used at trial.
Lucy Letby. Cheshire Constabulary
Politicians, like David Davis, began voicing concerns both inside and outside parliament, intensifying the debate around the safety of Letby’s conviction.
The Letby campaign stands out as an alleged miscarriage of justice because there are very few cases in which so many people have moved so quickly, and so publicly, to raise concerns.
Lessons from history
Miscarriages of justice are not new and are often very difficult to put right. The history of miscarriages of justice is littered with failed appeals and unsuccessful applications submitted by prisoners to the Criminal Cases Review Commission (CCRC), the body now responsible for investigating and referring them back to the Court of Appeal.
For example, Andrew Malkinson spent 17 years in prison for a crime he didn’t commit. Even after DNA evidence excluded him as the perpetrator, his case was essentially blocked from proceeding to appeal by the very system designed to identify such errors. Had it not been for sustained public campaigning and an investigation spearheaded by the legal charity Appeal, his conviction would probably not have been quashed.
Streeting’s argument that “there is no purpose in a campaign” overlooks the effect organised calls for justice have had. Campaigns like those for the Birmingham Six – in which six men spent 16 years in prison for a crime of which they were entirely innocent – led to significant reforms. These include the establishment of the CCRC itself. Without public scrutiny and outcry, these changes would not have been achieved.
My research shows that an important goal of justice campaigns is to “gain a voice” – to raise questions, build support and influence outcomes. This can sometimes lead to convictions being overturned. These campaigns are typically led by the prisoner’s family, whose fight to be heard is often a long and arduous journey.
Some families eventually manage to engage journalists who help them gain a voice in the mainstream media. This oxygen of publicity may, in turn, attract the attention of those whose intervention might further strengthen the campaign, such as specialist experts, lawyers and other professionals.
These individuals may lend their knowledge, skills and expertise to a case and sometimes even go public with their concerns. This often pressures people in positions of authority to respond.
The “campaigning voice” can also draw the attention of investigative journalists who specialise in re-examining alleged miscarriages of justice. When they take interest, their thorough and often obsessive work can uncover new evidence, sometimes strong enough to convince the Court of Appeal to overturn a conviction.
The judiciary itself has acknowledged the transformative role of such journalists. But it’s important to note that families usually have to wage a long and loud campaign before reaching this point.
Why the Letby case is different
Although Letby’s parents have stuck by her from the start, they have rarely spoken publicly.
In this case, the voices shouting the loudest, and refusing to be quiet, belong to eminent statisticians, epidemiologists, neonatologists, pediatricians and biochemical engineers. These are the types of people that most miscarriage campaigns spend years trying to attract. The sheer number speaking out is unprecedented.
So too is the swift involvement of John Sweeney, a journalist who specialises in investigating what researchers call “no crime miscarriages”. These are cases where people are convicted for crimes that never happened.
The speed with which these professionals and others have raised doubts about the Letby convictions is highly unusual, especially given the severity of the convictions. My work shows that people convicted of especially horrific crimes often struggle to establish campaigns that question whether the justice system got it wrong.
While it’s now widely accepted that juries, judges and the CCRC can make mistakes, justice systems tend to fiercely protect their decisions and reputations in such cases. Although no one can at this time say for certain whether or not Letby’s convictions are unsafe, research shows that public campaigns – and campaigning loudly – can make a difference.
Sam Poyser does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Athalie Redwood-Brown, Senior Lecturer in Performance Analysis of Sport, Nottingham Trent University
Regular workouts may help lessen the pain of those dreadful mornings.PintoArt/ Shutterstock
Most of us have been there: a night of fun turns into a morning of regret – complete with a pounding headache, nausea and fatigue.
While there are plenty of supposed hangover “cures” out there – from eating a greasy breakfast to the ill-advised “hair-of-the-dog” – a recent paper suggests that regular exercise may be the key to alleviating these dreadful mornings.
The study, published in the journal Addictive Behaviours, involved 1,676 undergraduate students who had experienced at least one hangover in the past three months. All participants did at least 30 minutes of moderate physical activity per week. They completed online questionnaires assessing their alcohol consumption patterns, physical activity levels and the frequency and severity of hangover symptoms. Activity levels were scored by calculating the intensity of the activity against the number of hours.
The findings indicated a significant association between physical activity and hangover symptoms. Unsurprisingly, people who consumed more alcohol experienced hangovers more frequently and with greater severity. But, these associations were reduced in people who engaged in vigorous physical activity (such as running) – suggesting that higher levels of exercise may reduce the severity of hangover symptoms.
While the study only established a correlation between exercise and reduced hangover severity, several mechanisms may help explain why physical activity could mitigate hangover symptoms.
1. Modulates pain response
Hangovers often cause physical pain, such as headaches and muscle aches, due to several factors. Alcohol leads to dehydration, which affects the way the blood vessels function and reduces fluid levels around the brain. This can trigger headaches.
Some studies have also noted that the concentration of alcohol you have in your blood after a night of drinking is also linked to common hangover symptoms, such as pain.
But exercise triggers the release of endorphins – hormones produced by the brain which serve as natural painkillers. Regular exercise may even elevate your baseline endorphin levels. This could potentially lead to a lower perception of pain and discomfort during a hangover.
2. Better quality sleep
Hangovers tend to be accompanied by poor quality sleep. Alcohol reduces REM sleep, which is the part of the sleep cycle that helps the brain rest and recover. Drinking can also make you wake up more throughout the night because alcohol causes your body to lose fluids – making you need to use the bathroom more often.
But regular exercise is linked to better sleep patterns by helping to regulate the circadian rhythm. Overall, physical activity can improve sleep duration, sleep quality and reduce the number of times you wake up during the night. This may in turn help you get a better night’s sleep after drinking – which could improve your overall recovery from a hangover.
3. Improves metabolism
Regular physical activity contributes to better metabolic health, which may facilitate the efficient processing of alcohol.
While the liver primarily metabolises alcohol, having a good metabolic rate can help clear alcohol and its byproducts from the system more effectively.
Exercise also improves circulation, which may also aid in flushing out acetaldehyde. This is a toxic chemical released by alcohol when the body metabolises it. Acetaldehyde significantly contributes to hangover symptoms.
4. Reduces inflammation
Alcohol triggers an inflammatory response (the body’s defence mechanism that works against harmful pathogens and substances) which can exacerbate hangover symptoms.
It releases chemicals called cytokines that promote inflammation, which helps fight off infections or injuries. However, in the case of a hangover, this inflammation can worsen symptoms such as headaches, muscle aches, fatigue and sensitivity to light and sound. The body’s heightened immune response amplifies these discomforts, making the hangover feel more intense.
But exercise has well-documented anti-inflammatory properties as it stimulates the production of anti-inflammatory cytokines. This means regular exercisers could experience less inflammation-related discomfort during hangovers.
The hangover cure?
It’s important to clarify that while exercise might help make hangovers more bearable, it’s not a cure. The most effective way to prevent a hangover is to drink in moderation – or avoid it altogether. But for those who choose to indulge, integrating regular physical activity into your lifestyle might just make hangovers a little less debilitating.
However, there are a few things that aren’t quite clear from the study. For example, it isn’t clear how soon before a night of drinking you should work out to see benefits on hangover severity. This makes it difficult to say whether regular exercisers have less severe hangovers, or whether having worked out before a night out helps manage hangover symptoms.
The study was also conducted using undergraduate students, whose drinking and physical activity levels may differ from older adults. Research in different age groups will be important to see if the benefits are similar.
It’s also crucial to distinguish between the benefits of consistent exercise and the impulse to work out while hungover. The latter can be counterproductive, as the body is already dehydrated and under stress. This may make your hangover feel worse.
Instead, try doing gentle, low-effort activities during a hangover – such as a walk or yoga. This may help boost your mood.
While this recent study’s findings shouldn’t be seen as providing an excuse to overindulge, it does highlight the ways that exercise equips the body to better handle the aftermath of a night of drinking – potentially making those rough mornings a bit more manageable.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Consumers of western media could be forgiven for supposing that Ukraine, the state whose sovereignty was violated so brutally with the Russian invasion of February 2022, enjoys unstinting support from its western neighbour Poland. The support of the Polish government has been unambiguous. Donations of military equipment and humanitarian support for refugees have been second to none in Europe.
The election of a new government at the end of 2023 made no discernible difference to the Polish commitment. Antipathy towards Russia in Poland has strong roots, dating back even before the days when much of the country (including Warsaw) was formally incorporated into the Romanovs’ Russian empire.
Observers in the west take it for granted that the pro-Ukrainian policies of successive Polish governments – endorsed by the Catholic churches – reflect views shared by citizens throughout the country.
But after more than two years of war, as I found during a recent research trip, doubts are being voiced in some segments of society.
Farmers have been angry for years. Ukraine has rich soils and its agribusiness is free from EU regulations. In the exceptional conditions created by the invasion, with the government desperately in need of revenue, Ukraine has been allowed to export its cheap grain to the EU. This has undermined the market for Polish farmers. Some Poles event believe that, since much Ukrainian farmland is owned by foreign capital, the prolongation of the war has been orchestrated by the west for economic reasons.
Similar arguments can be heard concerning energy. The end of cheap gas from the Russian Federation promises a bonanza for the producers of alternative supplies, notably in the United States at the expense of higher prices for Polish households. I also heard in plenty of conversations that Poland is the only ally of Ukraine to provide military hardware free of charge – whereas other Nato states insist on full payment or offer credits that will theoretically have to be repaid one day.
The resentments run deep and they affect large sections of the population. Why do I have to wait months for my hospital appointment, people ask – is it because of increased demand for health services from the millions of Ukrainian refugees? Why should my taxes pay for generous financial grants to Ukrainians who turn up at the border, claim the cash, and promptly return home?
A tangled history
Most educated citizens dismiss such allegations with scorn. Those who complain and exaggerate isolated abuses are often written off as gullible victims of Russian propaganda. But Poles are unlikely dupes. Monuments to communist crimes are everywhere – above all the Katyń massacres of 1940, when the Soviet security forces murdered thousands of Polish officers. More recently, many Poles still suspect the Kremlin’s complicity in the plane crash that killed their then president, Lech Kaczyński in Smolensk in 2010.
Yet hatred of Russia does not translate into unconditional support for Ukraine.
The enduring reason for friction between the two states has to do with diverging interpretations of violence which took place during and after the second world war. Ukrainian ministers have the undiplomatic habit of pointing out that large areas of present-day Poland were formerly occupied by Ukrainians. According to the historical ethno-linguistic and religious criteria generally considered central in the formation of peoples, Ukraine might indeed have a stronger claim to sections of the Polish Carpathians than it has to Crimea or Donbas.
Does this help explain why the Polish government upholds the sanctity of Ukraine’s border with Russia? They want Ukraine’s border with their country to be equally sacrosanct.
The typical Polish response to Ukrainian nationalist goading is to point out that Poles used to form the majority in most towns of western Ukraine – and that Lviv itself was a Polish city until Stalin redrew the borders in 1944 and the Polish population was deported westwards. These eastern borderlands are known to Poles as the Kresy. They are the focus of strong emotions and mythology. The Kresy is imagined as a harmonious realm in which, for many centuries, cultivated Poles ruled benignly over all other nationalities.
This multiculturalism came to an abrupt end in the 1940s. These days, Poles with family roots in Volhynia and Galicia, much of which is now in western Ukraine, are incensed by Kyiv’s refusal to admit that Ukrainian nationalists were responsible for the ethnic cleansing of the Polish population. Poland’s prime minister, Donald Tusk, recently made it clear that Poland’s continued support for admitting Ukraine to the EU will depend on coming to terms with this dark past.
Western complicity
During my recent visit, I was sometimes asked why the BBC and other influential western media never probed behind the slick public face of Volodymyr Zelensky’s team to report on the real conditions and opinions of ordinary Ukrainians. Instead, Russians are demonised and Ukrainians hailed for their “European values” and their sacrifices on behalf of the west.
Coverage in Polish state media conveys a similar message – but I found many citizens have become sceptical. There is pity for conscripts, sorrow for the loss of young lives on both sides and fear for where all this dehumanising violence is leading. But few of the people I spoke with believed that Russians are the only party violating the Geneva Conventions.
Often, the conversation turned to Boris Johnson. I was asked to explain why the then prime minister advised Zelensky in April 2022 that Ukraine should continue the fighting. Did Johnson, as has often been rumoured, sabotage proposals for a negotiated peace carefully drawn up in Istanbul shortly before his visit? Was it the spontaneous whim of a western politician who knew nothing about regional history, a clown playing macho games with Zelensky for the sake of his own image? Did he not care at all about the hundreds of thousands who would suffer and die if this war continued? Was he pursuing a devious strategy agreed with EU leaders and Nato partners, above all Washington?
I did not have answers to any of these questions.
Chris Hann does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Considered one of the great composers of the 20th century, the deeply expressive Béla Bartók synthesised elements of folk music of Hungarian and related cultures into classical forms, producing a style that was both individual and influential.
Through Bartók’s music, powerful elements of local folk melodies are performed and heard in concert halls worldwide. For the 80th anniversary of the composer’s death coming up in 2025, the University of Plymouth’s Musica Viva – of which I am founder and director – is planning a series of concerts celebrating the notion of the “music of home” as brought to life by Bartók, by including one of his pivotal works in every concert. His Piano Sonata, String Quartet No. 3, String Quartet No. 5 and Music for Strings, Percussion and Celesta will all be performed by leading artists.
From the start, the young Bartók, born in 1881, displayed a fascination with music, and his widowed mother encouraged his musical gifts. When the family moved to Pozsony, a former region of Hungary that now lies mostly within Slovakia, he began a formal musical education and attended concerts for the first time.
As an 18-year-old student of piano and composition at the Budapest Conservatory, Bartók immersed himself in the musical dramas of Wagner and the orchestral works of Liszt. But his primary focus was the piano, and he became known as a pianist of extraordinary abilities, playing the music of Chopin, Liszt and Robert Schumann.
During his last years as a student, nationalist currents in Hungary – which had been suppressed since the uprising in 1848-1849 – became resurgent. Caught up in this movement, Bartók devoted considerable thought to issues of a national music.
It is not surprising that under this influence and that of the music of Richard Strauss, his first major composition in 1903 was a vast symphonic poem called Kossuth, a Hungarian “Hero’s Life” – whose ten tableaux depict events of the 1948-49 war of independence. This work was followed by the Liszt-inspired Rhapsody for Piano and Orchestra in 1904.
Bartók’s interest in folk music grew to the point at which he and his friend and fellow composer Zoltán Kodály travelled throughout central Europe, Turkey, and north Africa to collect folk melodies. Bartók wrote five books and many articles on folk music.
He considered his most interesting finds to be from isolated Hungarian communities living among the foothills of the Carpathian Mountains, where he encountered and recorded authentic, untainted Magyar folk music. His fascination with the unbridled spirit of this music helped him gradually develop a compositional style in which he fused folk elements with highly developed techniques of classical music more intimately than had ever been done before.
Between the two world wars Bartók performed as a concert pianist, touring Britain, the US and the former USSR, and was prolific as a composer. Elements of his style include melodic lines derived from eastern European folk music; powerful forward-leaning rhythms in irregular meters with off-beat accents; strong control of form; and harmonies which, although primarily focused on one key, often include elements of multiple keys thereby creating a sense of musical tension.
Paramount among his piano works is his only Piano Sonata, written in 1926, which is also his largest composition for solo piano. It was composed during a particularly prolific year during which he also composed his First Piano Concerto, Out of Doors Suite and Nine Little Piano Pieces – all works which he included in his own public performances.
The Sonata is in three movements and follows a classic sonata form – a lively first movement, a slower second movement and an energetic finale in which the lively main theme recurs in different guises. The full resources of the piano are used in creating a wide spectrum of expression, from incisive detached clusters of notes to smoothly flowing lyrical melodic lines.
Throughout, the music is inspired by Bartók’s ethnomusicological (social and cultural) research. Although the themes are not folk melodies per se, they imitate their style in terms of melodic shaping, searing dynamics, driving rhythmic features and harmonic content. The piano is used in new percussive ways that often seem a vivid portrayal of folk passions. At the time this was groundbreaking.
Bartók’s contribution to the musical repertoire is immense. He composed six String Quartets, Sonata for Two Pianos and Percussion, a large canon of solo piano music as well as chamber music, and an opera, Bluebeard’s Castle. The Concerto for Orchestra, three Piano Concerti, and the Violin Concerto are all masterpieces in large-scale musical forms.
Bartók emigrated to the US in 1940 and found temporary employment at Columbia University. His health deteriorated along with his financial situation, although his friends Joseph Szigeti and Fritz Reiner arranged for the Koussevitzky Foundation to commission him to write the Concerto for Orchestra in 1943 and the Sonata for Solo Violin in 1944, which provided temporary relief from a dismal situation.
Bartok died on September 26, 1945, with the score of his Viola Concerto unfinished, but he left behind an unparalleled canon of music that is deeply expressive and vital to our musical understanding today.
Robert Taub does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The show demonstrates that young children are capable, curious and competent.(Blue Ant Media)
There is an evolutionary need for parents to protect their children from harm. One of the most difficult and important aspects of parenting is allowing children to take the necessary risks which enable them to grow.
TVO’s Old Enough!, based on a hit Japanese TV series, helps parents consider the balance between protection and creating space for children to develop independence and resilience. It shows very young children being provided the responsibility of running errands seemingly on their own.
It should be noted there are protections in place, for example as seen in Episode 1. Viewers see four-year-old Parker with supports for crossing streets, camera crews and shop keepers who are prepared for the child’s visit. It is not recommended that very young children complete errands unsupervised.
However, the show demonstrates that young children are capable, curious and competent. It encourages us to consider how we can support children in developing their confidence, self-worth and trust, and help them become independent and resilient while ensuring they feel supported and loved.
Independence begins with love
Old Enough! exemplifies many insights for parents about nurturing relationships with their children to support their emerging independence.
Secure attachment develops when a child consistently experiences a loving, attuned and responsive emotional connection, fostering a sense of trust and safety, and learning that their emotional needs will be met.
This is at the heart of raising independent and resilient children. Every experience shapes a child’s brain and influences gene expression. The emotional bond that develops from secure attachment provides children reassurance to take risks and try new things on their own. This emotional security enables them to confidently explore the world, knowing they have a secure base to return to.
In Old Enough!, viewers see glimpses of this trusting and loving relationship with five-year-old Simon and his dad David in Episode 3. Simon’s dads, David and Stephane, have different views around how much freedom Simon should have, with David feeling more protective. The episode shows Simon shopping on his own at Toronto’s St. Lawrence Market, with David outside.
Trailer for ‘Old Enough!’ Episode 3.
When the bags are too heavy, Simon drags them outside to give to David, sharing he was “dropping off a load because it was too heavy.” Simon’s dad empathically sighs in agreement.
Simon knows his dad will be waiting for him. There is no concern of where to find his dad, or apprehension his dad would be upset Simon hadn’t finished, or had taken too long. Simon flops on the sidewalk and shares his solo adventure.
His father, clearly anxious, finds a way through his own feelings to ask Simon if he will go back in to finish. Simon proudly beams yes! Upon return, he is greeted with pride and a big hug. Simon is proud of himself, stating “now I know how to shop by myself,” shining with confidence and resilience.
That Simon knows the world is safe and trustworthy was evident in his secure internal working model. This is seen in his willingness to confidently ask others for help, knowing it will be OK if he fails. His reflection “I was not even scared,” emphasizes the confidence in his relationships and secure base from which he explores the world.
Love supports courage to take on tasks
Old Enough! also shows everyday moments of independence parents can foster by allowing children to complete simple, age-appropriate tasks.
Love and autonomy go hand in hand. This emotional foundation provides children the courage to take on tasks, solve problems and struggle through challenges. Love is not just a form of emotional support; it is also a tool for growth.
When children are provided with opportunities to face small challenges, make decisions and manage frustration, we help them build the resilience to handle bigger challenges later in life. This approach reinforces that their loving caregiver trusts and believes in them.
Children who know they are loved unconditionally feel secure in their worth and are more likely to navigate the complexities of life with a sense of inner stability. This emotional foundation prevents them from relying heavily on external validation because they have internalized their worth and value.
As children grow, having a balanced view of themselves, their relationships and the world prepares them to manage peer pressure, bullying and setbacks, reinforcing the understanding of their worth isn’t determined by others’ opinions.
Parents’ own attachment experiences
Parents can support their children’s journey toward independence and resilience by encouraging small acts of autonomy.
Letting children make their own choices, take on responsibilities and engage in problem-solving helps build their confidence. At the same time, parents should be emotionally available, offering comfort and support without taking over. This balance of trust and love gives children the necessary tools to become both independent and resilient, knowing they can face challenges and are always supported.
Parents who want to do more to support their children’s autonomy while maintaining a close connection often find that making changes can be difficult. This is especially the case if they have not experienced secure attachment, unconditional love or have a history of relational trauma.
Managing the real fear and anxiety of stepping back, perhaps fearing your child will feel unloved, can feel incredibly challenging. In Old Enough! such feelings are expressed by Ohelya’s mom, Arfina, in Episode 8, who shares she had to grow up faster than most of her friends and she wants to protect her daughter from this experience, allowing her to enjoy childhood.
Trailer for ‘Old Enough!’ Episode 8.
For parents, it’s important to separate your fears and anxieties from what is real for your child, and ensure your history and experiences do not negatively impact your child’s opportunities for growth and development. Be kind and patient with yourself and your child during this process.
Wait: allow them the time and space to explore and play independently.
Wonder: reflect on their needs and your responses.
By acknowledging and managing your own fears and anxieties, you create space to see your child truly sparkle.
Learn and know who your child is, what their strengths are and what they need support with. It’s never to late to let children show you what they are capable of and reveal their amazing self. With consistency, you will build a deep meaningful connection built on trust and love, which will last a lifetime.
Nikki Martyn does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Matthew William Jones, NERC Independent Research Fellow in Climate Science, University of East Anglia
Fires have long been a natural part of forest ecosystems, but something is changing. Our new study shows that forest fires have become more widespread and severe amid global heating, particularly in the high northern latitudes such as Canada and Siberia where fires are most sensitive to hotter, drier conditions.
The implications of this are alarming, not just for the ecosystems affected or the cities engulfed by smoke downwind, but for the planet’s ability to store carbon and regulate the climate. The trend we discovered contrasts with declining fire extent in savannah grasslands, which may reflect the expansion of farming and changing rainfall patterns.
We established the leading causes of forest fires in different parts of the world using an AI algorithm. It grouped forest regions into distinct zones with similar fire patterns and underlying causes, uncovering the worrying extent to which climate change is fuelling the expansion of forest fires in Earth’s high northern latitudes.
More fires in ‘extratropical’ forests
Since 2001, emissions from fires in forests outside of the tropics, like parts of the boreal forest in the far north of North America and Eurasia, have nearly tripled. This rise is largely the result of hotter, drier weather occurring more frequently, combined with forests growing more efficiently in places where the cold once stunted their growth.
Climate change is creating ideal conditions for larger, more intense fires, which accelerate climate change in turn by releasing more carbon to the atmosphere. In fact, we found that global carbon emissions from forest fires have increased by 60% over the past two decades. The largest contributions come from fires in Siberia and western North America.
A conifer forest in north-western Canada after the 2023 fire season in which more than 6,000 fires burned through 15 million hectares. Stefan Doerr
This trend shifts the focus of forest fire emissions from tropical forests, where fires set to make room for farmland have long contributed carbon to the atmosphere. Conservation policies have reduced deforestation rates since the early 2000s in some regions, particularly Amazonia. By contrast, increasing fires in northern forests, such as the taiga – the forest of the cold sub-arctic region – are driven by changing climate conditions and generally started by lightning, which makes them harder to prevent.
Not only is the area affected by fires expanding but the fires themselves are growing more severe and releasing more carbon, according to our new findings. This corresponds with an earlier study that found fires are doing more damage to ecosystems globally than in the past. Fires are burning through drier and more flammable vegetation as global temperatures rise and droughts become more frequent.
In northern forests, more severe fires can burn deep into the soil and release carbon that has accumulated over centuries. Forests can remain net carbon emitters for decades after burning and the more severe fires become, the longer it takes forests to rebound and recapture carbon lost during the fire.
What does this mean for the planet?
The steep rise in fire emissions from forests outside the tropics is a clear signal that the capacity of Earth’s forest to store carbon is at increasing risk.
Forests, particularly in northern regions, absorb and store CO₂ from the atmosphere. But as fires expand and become more severe, these vital carbon sinks are weakened. This undermines the global effort to tackle climate change as forests offset emissions from human activities that burn fossil fuels.
Forest fires, long considered part of the natural carbon cycle, are increasingly driven by human-caused climate change. Yet, international reporting standards don’t differentiate between “natural” levels of forest fire emissions and the higher emissions we’re seeing due to climate change.
This allows excess fire emissions caused by humans to fall outside the scope of national carbon budgets tracked by organisations like the United Nations. Gaps emerge between the carbon emissions we think we’re managing and the actual amount that’s passing between the land and the atmosphere.
What drives fires in different regions varies, so addressing this growing threat requires tailored approaches. Outside of the tropics, proactive forest management is essential. Carefully managed fires and thinning out vegetation can mean fires ultimately cause less damage when they do ignite. Monitoring vegetation growth, alongside fire-favourable weather conditions, can help identify and prioritise areas for intervention.
In tropical forests, reducing ignitions (especially during droughts) and preventing forest fragmentation is key to protecting these ecosystems and their carbon stocks. This may help prevent the more extreme fires that turn tropical forests from carbon sinks into sources.
Increasing fires are a symptom of climate change
Limiting the burning of fossil fuels is central to minimising future fire risk. Without drastic cuts to greenhouse gas emissions, more severe and widespread forest fires are likely, with increasing damage to ecosystems, biodiversity and the climate.
Our study also highlighted the importance of updating international reporting standards on carbon emissions. As forest fires become more closely linked to human-driven climate change, it’s crucial that fire emissions be included in national carbon budgets to provide a more accurate picture of the planet’s carbon fluxes.
There is also a risk of overestimating how much carbon is stored by reforesting areas, especially outside the tropics. Many carbon offset schemes rely on planting new trees or delaying the harvest of existing ones to absorb CO₂, but if the growing threat of forest fires isn’t properly accounted for, these projects could fail to deliver the carbon savings they promise.
Forest fires are no longer just a natural occurrence. As they shift north and intensify, these fires are a clear symptom of human-caused climate change.
It’s essential to recognise the growing role that fires play in the carbon cycle. By doing so, we can better manage fire risks, safeguard forests and ensure a more resilient future for the planet.
Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Matthew William Jones receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC).
Stefan H Doerr receives funding from the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) and the FirEUrisk project funded via the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme under grant agreement no. 101003890.
Crystal A. Kolden does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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Vladimir Putin’s regular threats about his nuclear arsenal have focused minds on the existential threat his nuclear weapons still represent. But it’s the volatility of the situation in the Middle East that has added a worrying degree of uncertainty to the international situation.
A year after the brutal Hamas attack on Israel – and after months of tit-for-tat missile attacks between Israel and Iran – Israel has commenced a ground invasion of Lebanon which pits the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) directly against Iranian proxy Hezbollah.
At the same time, the government of Benjamin Netanyahu is pursuing an ever more drastic campaign against Hamas in Gaza. It is now reportedly planning to expel all residents from the north of the enclave in order to establish a military zone there. Meanwhile it has ramped up its attacks on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and against Iranian proxies in Syria.
All-out war between Israel and Iran remains unthinkable, even as questions are raised about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. And yet, as any historian will tell you, the wrong combination of miscalculation, errors of strategic judgement and failures of diplomacy to cause things to escalate with alarming rapidity.
In 1997, Austrian economist Friedrich Glasl published a model of conflict escalation which is generally accepted as the best study of how disagreements can develop into disastrous warfare. It maps, in nine stages, how a conflict can develop from tension between antagonists to a situation into which the warring parties plunge “together into the abyss”.
Nine stages of confict escalation. Graphic by Swinnall, original from Sampi. Derived from: Konflikteskalation nach Glasl.svg, CC BY-NC-SA
Matthew Powell, a historian of warfare, compares Glasl’s model to the situation between Israel and Iran. He assesses the two antagonists have have reached stage seven, “where they are launching limited blows against each other while avoiding direct confrontation. Both want to make their adversary consider whether the cost of continuing is worth the potential rewards that can be gained”.
Powell believes that both sides presently seem keen to remain at arms length for fear that a direct conflict could plunge them – and their allies – into the aforementioned abyss.
Now, more than ever, it’s vital to be informed about the important issues affecting global stability. Sign up to receive our weekly World Update newsletter. Every Thursday we’ll you expert analysis of the big stories making international headlines.
For longtime Middle East analyst Paul Rogers, one of the key issues governing the likely future of the conflict is likely to be the domestic politics of Israel. He has watched the country move steadily to the right over more than 50 years, to the extent that the Netanyahu government is now heavily influenced by religious nationalists. Netanyahu has depended for two years on the support of some of the more extreme elements on Israel’s political fringe in order to stay in power.
These hardliners, Rogers writes, are willing to subvert Israeli democracy itself in order to realise their dream of “Messianic Judaism”. A byproduct of this dream would be to push the Palestinian population out of Gaza, which would be a disaster for regional stability. The irony is that by making war on Lebanon, Netanyahu has managed to improve his standing with the Israeli people and is no longer as dependent on political hawks.
Of course, what may be good for Netanyahu is a disaster for Lebanon, where the death toll is rising daily and more than one-quarter of the population has been displaced.
While Israel’s air force has launched 140 airstrikes across the country, most of the activity has focused on the border areas in the south of the country, where the IDF is reported to be clearing villages, perhaps in anticipation for setting up a buffer zone there.
Israeli ground operation in southern Lebanon as at October 16 2024. Institute for the Study of War
Over the past fortnight there have been repeated incidents where the IDF have – apparently deliberately – targeted units of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (Unifil). This peacekeeping force was set up in 1978 and has the mandate to enforce the UN’s resolution to prevent clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu has demanded that Unifil move its peacekeepers out of the conflict zone, but so far the UN troops, led by France and Spain, have refused to leave their posts.
Vanessa Newby and Chiara Ruffa, with input and advice from former senior Unifil political and civil affairs officer John Molloy, (formerly of the Irish Defence Forces) have been tracking the incidents. Most recently they involved an IDF tank firing on a Unifil watchtower and has resulted in a growing number of casualties among the peacekeepers.
Newby and Ruffa believe that Israel wants to remove Unifil from southern Lebanon because it wants to carry out its operations without the scrutiny of an international observer. They also speculate that the sheer number of forces being moved by the IDF into south Lebanon indicates that Israel may be planning to occupy a swath of territory beyond what its military has described as a “limited, localised, and targeted” operation.
Meanwhile tensions are rising between Hezbollah and other sections of Lebanese society. We’ve seen this before, and it has never gone well, writes Mohamad El Kari, who has witnessed the challenges to security in Lebanon firsthand as a translator.
He fears that Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah will kick off a bout of factional infighting that could seriously destabilise a country that is already showing signs of serious social and political instability. In some areas, Kari writes, people were dancing in the streets at the news of Nasrallah’s death. Not a good sign for Lebanon’s fragile stability.
All this talk of escalation had me reflecting on history. I grew up during the cold war under the shadow of the nuclear threat. As a schoolboy in the 1970s, I was taken to a nuclear bunker where, in the event of a nuclear attack on the UK, key personnel would have sheltered as they ran secure communications.
As a student in the 1980s, I shared a house with several women who would spend weekends at Greenham Common airbase where they protested against the presence of nuclear weapons there. I remember the gallows humour with which we greeted the government’s Protect and Survive campaign, which encouraged building makeshift nuclear shelters under the stairs.
The peace movement of the day adapted the campaign into the slogan “protest and survive” and the Raymond Briggs graphic novel When the Wind Blows darkly lampooned the government’s advice with its portrayal of an elderly couple following the government’s instructions with predictably tragic results.
In 1984, Britain was horrified by the BBC film, Threads, a docudrama based on the idea of a nuclear attack on Sheffield. The premise called for a confrontation between Nato and the Warsaw Pact after a US-sponsored coup in Iran. It showed how quickly an international crisis could degenerate into global nuclear conflict and, in turn, how quickly societal collapse was likely to follow.
Then in the 1990s the nuclear threat seemed to diminish. The collapse of the Soviet Union and treaties to limit the spread of nuclear weapons and decommission existing stockpiles meant that, for most of us anyway, the idea of a nuclear holocaust receded to almost nothing.
The BBC recently screened the film again, to mark its 40th anniversary, and has made it available for streaming on iPlayer. The Independent’s preview of the screening noted that the Doomsday Clock, which atomic scientists use to indicate how close the world is to nuclear disaster, is set at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been. The scientists said that conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, with the prospect the latter might spread across the Middle East had made the world a much more dangerous place in 2024. And so it has come to pass.
Philosopher Mark Lacy was shown the film as a schoolboy and doesn’t intend to watch it again. But he’s an expert in the changing nature of warfare and he has seen how conflicts can explode out of “accidents, miscalculations and errors of strategic judgement”.
He is concerned that, unlike in the cold war where events were largely controlled by “rational actors” who were all too aware of the potential for “mutually assured destruction” and made their calculations accordingly, today’s leaders may not act with the same circumspection. And this is what makes the world a much more dangerous place.
The latest edition of our podcast, The Conversation Weekly, focuses on the the Middle East question. Podcast host Gemma Ware speaks with two academic experts in Middle East politics, Amnon Aran and Mireille Rebeiz, to get a sense of what’s at stake for the region.
Right now, in provincial election campaigns across Canada, voters are trying to work out which political parties and local candidates might be their best representatives.
In British Columbia, the NDP and Conservative parties are running neck and neck ahead of this weekend’s election. In New Brunswick, the race between the Liberals and the Progressive Conservatives is equally tight. In Saskatchewan, Premier Scott Moe’s lead over the NDP appears to be more comfortable.
In each of these elections — and in the important municipal elections that are also happening across the country in weeks and months ahead — voters face the task of working out which candidate is best equipped to serve as their representative.
In the work that our politicians do on our behalf — their legislative votes, their policy advocacy, their casework, their community service — we want them to behave in ways that reflect our policy attitudes and priorities.
In the first pathway, politicians represent their constituents’ preferences because they share those preferences — they agree with their constituents. We call this the “congruence” pathway.
In the second pathway, politicians represent their constituents’ preferences because they know those preferences and choose to represent them. This is the “knowledge” pathway.
Both pathways are thought to lead to the same destination: representation of constituents’ preferences by politicians.
But think for a moment about which pathway you would prefer for your representative to take: congruence or knowledge? Which option do you think provides the best representation for citizens?
We’ll tell you our own answers to these questions shortly. But first we need to understand just how different these pathways really are.
Measuring policy representation
In an upcoming article, our goal was to explore how well politicians perform on the congruence pathway and how many perform well on the knowledge pathway.
To answer these questions, we began with a very large survey of the Canadian public, asking more than 10,000 Canadians for their opinions on nine policy issues. These included gun control, immigration, trade with China, taxes, public transit investment and climate change — a wide variety of important policies.
We used this survey to make an estimate of the proportion of people who supported and opposed each policy statement across hundreds of municipalities.
Then, using the Canadian Municipal Barometer’s annual survey of municipal politicians, we asked politicians to guess the percentage of their constituents who support each policy statement. We also asked for each politician’s personal opinion on each statement.
These two surveys — one of the Canadian public, and the other of hundreds of Canadian municipal politicians — allowed us to measure and compare the two pathways.
Two pathways or one?
Let’s start with the good news: In general, politicians do a good job on both pathways. Across nine issues and hundreds of politicians, we found that nearly 60 per cent of politicians performed well on both pathways, and another 19 per cent performed well on at least one pathway.
The bad news is that politicians’ performance on both pathways is highly variable. On some policy issues, like gun control, nearly all politicians perform extremely well. On other issues, like immigration, politicians struggle.
But the most striking thing we discovered in our data was that the two pathways are closely related: Politicians who performed well on one pathway also tended to perform well on the other.
It turns out that these “pathways to representation” may not be very distinct after all.
Choosing your pathway
So, returning to our earlier question:
Which should you prefer? Should citizens choose politicians who represent their views through the congruence pathway or the knowledge pathway?
Our research suggests that most of the time, citizens don’t have to make the choice, because the two skills are so strongly connected. But suppose you did have to choose — what should you prioritize?
Personally, we’d choose congruence and would recommend focusing on finding a candidate who agrees with you on the things you care about, and support them.
Why prefer congruence? Because recent research shows that politicians struggle to think beyond their own beliefs when making guesses about their constituents’ attitudes. When politicians think about what their constituents want, they tend to assume that their constituents agree with them on various issues.
Our research has shown that they’re often right — congruence and knowledge are closely related. But this isn’t always the case, and politicians tend to think (much like the rest of us) that other people agree with them even when, sometimes, they don’t.
The good news is that politicians do tend to do reasonably well on both pathways, according our findings, so in real-world elections, you won’t typically be faced with this choice.
But when a political candidate comes to your door asking for your vote, here’s our advice: don’t quiz them about local public opinion, or ask them how often they’d conduct public opinion polls after they get elected.
Instead, ask them some questions about policy issues you care deeply about, and pick the candidate who shares your views.
You’ll be making your choices based on congruence — one of the two possible pathways to representation. But our research suggests that if your local representative aligns well with constituents, they’ll be a good performer on knowledge as well.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Many young women and girls report facing gender-based violence online. Appropriate responses need to be created within this dire landscape.(Shutterstock)
More and more of our lives are being spent on digital platforms. And, as we spend more time online, we are more vulnerable to a wide range of risks. This fact is particularly true for women and girls.
A 2024 global survey by Microsoft found that women are more likely than men to experience any type of risk online. And 25 per cent of teen girls reported experiencing sexual risks in their online lives, compared to 19 per cent of teen boys.
When online violence or abuse occurs to people because of their gender or gender presentation, it falls under the umbrella term gender-based online violence and abuse, also known as tech-facilitated gender-based violence. Unfortunately, incidents of this type of online violence seem to be increasing.
Appropriate responses need to be created within this dire landscape.
Some governments are creating policies to address gender-based online violence and abuse. For example, Australia has passed legislation mandating dating apps to update and enforce codes of conduct that address instances of sexual abuse.
The Canadian government tabled the Online Harms Act in February 2024, which, if passed, would introduce a regulatory framework that demands social media platforms moderate violent content. These legislative acts aim to hold digital platforms accountable for creating methods for reporting and deleting violent content by requiring them to assume full responsibility.
Governments must hold digital platforms accountable for the violence that happens on them, but are such approaches enough?
Our recent research suggests that some men might not even recognize if and how they are complicit in gender-based online violence. Cultural ideas, like rape myths, may influence their spheres of understanding. And, in these cases, they may not be compelled to follow a code of conduct set up by government or platform policy.
Governments must hold digital platforms accountable for the violence that happens on them, but it is also important to address prevalent narratives and myths about rape and sexual abuse. (Shutterstock)
Rape myths
Rape myths are prejudicial and false beliefs that shape societal attitudes towards gendered violence. Examples of such myths are seen, for instance, when blame is put on the victim, the rapist is excused, and the rape is minimized and even sometimes justified.
In our study, we took a validated psychological scale for measuring the presence of rape myths and adapted it to understand how myths about gender-based online violence might influence behaviours that cause it, or at least prevent people from intervening.
The rape myths acceptance scale shows the degrees to which people accept certain myths that normalize sexual violence (such as, “she was asking for it” or “he didn’t mean to”). This scale is used to show how taken-for-granted assumptions contribute to cultures where victims of sexual violence are blamed or subject to disbelief when they come forward.
We adapted the rape myth acceptance scale because responses to it can reveal the cultural narratives that normalize many forms of gendered violence.
Indeed, research on rape myth acceptance points to the fact that we cannot fully address the acts of gender-based violence without first addressing these narratives. And gender-based online violence and abuse is not an exception.
What we found
Once we had adapted the rape myths acceptance scale to account for gender-based online violence and abuse, we used it in a survey of 1,297 Canadian men between 18 and 30 years old.
We used a likert scale to determine the degree to which young men agreed with statements like “claims of online gender-based violence are often weaponized against men” or “people who post about gender are sexuality are looking to start arguments.” We found that certain toxic myths and cultural narratives are prevalent among some respondents.
We found that certain rape myths were prevalent among some respondents. (Shutterstock)
In particular, we found four myths that were more strongly endorsed: 1. It wasn’t really gender-based online abuse; 2. he didn’t mean to; 3. gender-based online abuse is a deviant event, and 4. she lied. These myths trivialize the impact of the violence, minimize the blame of those enacting the harm and discredit the voices of targets.
We noticed that as many as 30 per cent of our survey respondents agreed with many of these myths — a significant number of young Canadian men taking these regressive attitudes towards gender-based online violence.
As we looked to other research to explain the prevalence of these ideas, we also found that similar ideas are found in manosphere-related influencers — people like Andrew Tate, who are a growing source of hateful ideas about women and gender-nonconforming people.
Thinking ahead
We cannot address gender-based online violence and abuse by simply reporting and deleting offensive content. It also won’t stop by simply mandating that platforms have codes of conduct in place. In order to tackle the problem, we must addressing the cultural narratives that sustain it.
We can create educational initiatives that promote inclusive and accessible narratives about the nature and importance of gendered violence. We can encourage citizens to engage in bystander intervention when they encounter these narratives. And finally, we need to understand why some young men take comfort in ideas that promote toxic expressions of masculinity.
Practitioners and researchers must keep exploring the nature and prevalence of myths surrounding gender-based online violence and abuse. We need to spend time with young men and ask them questions about what they think it is to be a man, and we need to provide positive examples of masculinity in order to make manosphere-style ideas less attractive.
Jaigris Hodson receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC). She is a resident Fellow of the Cascade Institute, and a Research Advisor for the Clarity Foundation.
Esteban Morales receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).
Kaitlynn Mendes receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC), and the Canada Research Chairs Program.
Yimin Chen receives funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada (SSHRC).
Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Elizabeth Saewyc, Director & Professor, School of Nursing & Executive Director, Stigma and Resilience Among Vulnerable Youth Centre, University of British Columbia
The treatment of sexual minority and gender-diverse youth in Canadian schools continues to be a contentious issue among parents and political parties, particularly in provinces like Alberta and British Columbia.
In the run-up to the upcoming B.C. election, discussions around a sexual minority framework for schools and the SOGI 123 initiative are prominent.
What is SOGI 123?
Introduced into B.C.’s public schools in 2016, SOGI 123 aims to make schools safer and more inclusive for students of all gender identities and sexual orientations. The initiative provides resources to help educators combat and address discrimination and bullying, and foster supportive and inclusive environments for 2SLGBTQ+ students.
The push for SOGI 123 was informed by a 2014 study which included data from the McCreary Centre Society’s 2013 BC Adolescent Health Survey. That study showed that schools with an established Gay Straight Alliance or Gender Sexuality Alliance, along with anti-homophobic policies, lowered the odds of sexual minority students reporting discrimination, mental health issues and suicide attempts compared to students in schools without such initiatives. Notably, heterosexual students also benefited from these inclusive settings.
Despite hopes that SOGI 123 would bridge the health and well-being disparity gap for gender-diverse and cisgender youth, recent events may be undermining those efforts. Over the past two years, there has been a notable rise in vocal opposition to the rights of trans and non-binary students across the country, with schools becoming a backdrop for protests and counter-protests.
In response to these challenges, researchers at the University of British Columbia teamed up again with McCreary Centre Society to analyze the BC Adolescent Health Survey data from 2023 to see what, if anything, has changed for trans, non-binary, and questioning young people in B.C. since 2018.
Key findings from the 2024 report
Improved family support: Some positive findings from the 2024 report include improved family support for gender-diverse youth with a noted reduction over time in these young people running away or getting kicked out of home.
Decreased feelings of safety: Results for students’ experiences at school were less positive, with decreases in feeling safe at school for both gender-diverse and cisgender youth. Gender-diverse young people were the least likely to report feeling safe in different parts of their school, and particularly in less supervised locations such as changing rooms and washrooms.
Increased reports of bullying: The majority of gender-diverse youth had experienced at least one type of in-person or online bullying in the past year, and rates of experiencing online bullying were at least twice those of cisgender boys.
Rising discrimination: Compared to five years earlier, there was an increase in gender-diverse youth reporting they had experienced discrimination, and the majority had experienced at least one form of discrimination in the past year. The most common location where discrimination occurred was at school: 32 per cent of trans girls and 57 per cent of trans boys reported they had experienced discrimination at school, compared to 29 per cent of cisgender girls and 20 per cent of cisgender boys.
School connectedness is crucial for mental well-being: Similar to past studies, strong school connections remained a strong protective factor for health and well-being, linked to reduced suicidal thoughts and suicide attempts. For example, trans boys with the highest school connectedness were 99 per cent less likely to report seriously considering suicide in the past year compared to those with lower school connections. Likewise, trans girls with strong connections were 8.7 times more likely to report good or excellent mental health compared to other trans girls with low school connections.
B.C. election issue
As the debate about SOGI 123 continues during this election cycle, the recent data from more than 76,000 Grade 7-12 students serves as a crucial and timely reminder.
It highlights the importance of considering the experiences and perspectives of B.C.’s youth in discussions about how to create safe and inclusive school environments for all.
Elizabeth Saewyc receives funding from the Canadian Institutes of Health Research, the Public Health Agency of Canada, and the US National Institutes of Health. She also provides consultation to the World Health Organization, UNICEF, and other UN Agencies on adolescent health indicators and health measures.
Annie Smith does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Courtney W. Mason, Professor and Canada Research Chair, Rural Livelihoods and Sustainable Communities, Thompson Rivers University
With British Columbians going to the polls this week, a whole host of key issues are on the agenda. Among these issues stands the future of species at risk legislation in B.C. — and perhaps with it Canada as a whole.
A major issue with SARA is that it does not apply everywhere. Canada’s legal system divides power between federal and provincial governments. Wildlife, including species at risk, are mostly the provinces’ responsibility. SARA only applies to aquatic species, migratory birds and species on federal land (like national parks).
Unfortunately, most animals are not adept at reading maps, and a SARA-protected species can lose its protection simply by crossing a jurisdictional boundary. SARA does include exceptions where the federal government can intervene if a province is not doing enough to protect a particular species. But in practice the provinces have mostly been left to their own devices.
These jurisdictional dynamics, characteristic of Canadian federal politics, have created variations in species protection efforts across the country.
Of Canada’s nine common law provinces (excluding Québec and the territories), five have designated species at risk laws. The other four — British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Prince Edward Island — have only limited protections within other laws.
Species protection efforts are marked by numerous momentous decision-points. Perhaps the most significant decision of all is whether to list a species as at risk.
Most Canadian jurisdictions use committees of experts — including Indigenous knowledge holders and conservation scientists — to evaluate the risk to a species. In some provinces, like Nova Scotia, this becomes the official species at risk list.
In others, including federally, the committee decision is only a recommendation and the relevant minister has final discretion on listing. Ministerial discretion has led to certain types of species — particularly ones whose harvest or habitats are economically important — to repeatedly not be listed.
Discretion is not limited to listing decisions. In jurisdictions with species at risk laws, discretion allows governments to not enforce protections that interfere with other priorities. For example, a provincial government deeply invested in forestry could use ministerial discretion to de-emphasize protections for old growth forests, despite providing critical habitats for species at risk.
Where species at risk laws are insufficient, leaving room for discretion only weakens already limp protections. The only way to improve conditions for species at risk is to support governments that promise to prioritize the environment, and continually hold them to those promises.
Promises without progress
B.C. has over 2,000 plants, animals and habitats listed at risk. This is eight times more than Ontario, which has the second most listed species at risk with just over 250. Despite this, B.C. has some of the least complete legal protections, barely edging out Alberta to not come last in our scoring comparison. The province also has a history of promising species at risk law reform with no concrete action.
B.C. clearly illustrates how promises do not always lead to results.
In 2017, the B.C. NDP formed the province’s government under an agreement with the B.C. Green Party to prioritize environmental issues — including protecting species at risk. The 2017 mandate letter charged George Heyman, the Minister of Environment, to develop species at risk legislation.
After 2020’s mid-coronavirus snap election, the B.C. NDP gained a majority government without needing support from the B.C. Green Party. Consequently, 2020’s mandate letter showed weakening environmental priorities. The letter signalled a move away from species at risk legislation and instead directed the minister with “continuing to work with partners to protect species at risk”.
Perhaps realizing this language could not be further softened, new premier David Eby made no mention of species at risk or wildlife in the 2022 mandate letter.
Nonetheless, species at risk protections are back on the political agenda in the ongoing election, with both the B.C. NDP and B.C. Conservative parties promising “made-in-B.C.” and “science-based” biodiversity initiatives and species at risk legislation.
However, the result of the election will have a significant impact on the strength of any new laws, as the NDP’s platform focuses on overall biodiversity and increasing protection to critical habitats such as old-growth forests, while the Conservative’s seems mostly aimed at working with hunters to increase ungulate populations to allow larger hunting quotas.
Uncertain future
In recent legislative debates, B.C.’s ministers responsible for species at risk (and their habitats) have explained delays in making a species at risk law by increasingly emphasizing that they are taking the time to include Indigenous perspectives.
While it is positive that legislators are acknowledging the necessity of collaborating with Indigenous Nations on environmental laws, it is hard not to read repeated references to the length of consultation as deflecting responsibility for government inaction onto Indigenous communities.
Elections are impending across the country and environmental interests are back in the conversation. However, any progress could easily be lost if new governments are not committed to support environmental interests, both during and after the election cycle.
It is vital to support political parties with an environmental platform aimed at protecting biodiversity. Canada’s species at risk need voters to keep them in mind at the ballot boxes.
Courtney W. Mason receives funding from SSHRC; Canadian Mountain Network; BC Parks; Braiding Knowledge Canada.
Jordyn Maria Bogetti receives funding from SSHRC; Canadian Mountain Network.
The removal of Kenya’s deputy president Rigathi Gachagua is part of a long history, dating back to independence, of fallouts between the president and his deputy. The difference this time around is the process.
Historically, presidents have fired their deputies. But the adoption of a new constitution in 2010, saw the introduction of a process for impeachment – for both the president and the deputy – that’s run by the legislature. This is the first time it’s been used.
On 8 October 2024, members of Kenya’s national assembly voted to impeach Gachagua on grounds that included corruption, insubordination and ethnically divisive politics. The case moved to the senate, which also voted to impeach Gachagua on 17 October.
Gachagua has made history as Kenya’s first deputy leader to be impeached. While President William Ruto stayed silent on the matter, the process would not have proceeded without his blessing.
Amid the novelty of the impeachment process, it’s easy to forget that it is the norm for Kenyan presidents to fall out with their deputies. As a political scientist interested in Kenya’s ethnic politics and democratisation, I argue that this is because of how deputies are selected in the first place.
Deputies are initially selected largely on pragmatic grounds as people who bring something useful to a political alliance. This could be resources, a support base or a reputation for being a good technocrat or administrator.
They’re not usually people with whom the president has a strong and continuous personal relationship or someone with whom they share a clear political ideology. Neither are they usually someone who has made their way up through a political party.
This has brought about a long history of tensions and fallout between Kenya’s presidents and their deputies.
History of fallouts
Independent Kenya’s first vice president, Oginga Odinga, saw his ministerial portfolio gradually reduced by President Jomo Kenyatta. Kenyatta then replaced Odinga as vice president of the ruling Kenya African National Union (Kanu) in 1966 further undermining his powers. Soon after, Odinga joined the opposition Kenya’s People’s Union.
His successor, Joseph Murumbi, resigned within months. The official reason given was ill health, but it is widely believed that Murumbi was troubled by corruption and authoritarianism within the Kenyatta regime.
Kenya’s second president, Daniel arap Moi, elected Mwai Kibaki as his first deputy. Kibaki was dropped after a decade. He went on to form an opposition party as soon as Kenya shifted to multi-party politics in 1992.
Moi’s second vice president, Josephat Karanja, resigned after a year to avoid a vote of no confidence for allegedly plotting to overthrow the government.
Moi’s third deputy, George Saitoti was sidelined to pave way for Uhuru Kenyatta’s nomination as the party flagbearer in 2002. Moi’s final deputy, Musalia Mudavadi, fell with the rest of the Kanu government in the 2002 elections.
As Kenya’s third president, Kibaki similarly oversaw a regular change of guard. His first deputy, Michael Wamalwa, died after a few months in office. His second, Moody Awori, lost his seat in the 2007 election.
Kibaki’s third deputy, Kalonzo Musyoka, joined the president during Kenya’s post-election violence of 2007-08. He left at the end of his term in 2013 to run with Raila Odinga in the 2013, 2017 and 2022 presidential elections.
Kenya’s fourth president, Uhuru Kenyatta, was the only leader to have the same deputy, William Ruto, for his full term as president – from 2013 to 2022. However, relations between Kenyatta and Ruto were hardly rosy. The two fell out after the 2017 elections as Kenyatta teamed up with long-standing opposition leader, Raila Odinga. Ruto beat Odinga, Kenyatta’s favoured candidate in the 2022 elections.
Lessons to learn
Because deputies are selected for their practical value, the person who made a good deputy at one point in time can come to be seen as a liability or threat as the political context changes.
For example, at independence, Oginga Odinga made an excellent ally for Jomo Kenyatta. He had some resources and was a proven mobiliser. He brought a support base. However, within a few years, Odinga became a problem for the president as a more radical faction within the ruling party coalesced around him.
Similarly, Ruto made an excellent ally for Uhuru Kenyatta when they both faced charges for crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court. The two fell out once Kenyatta had won his second and final term, and Kenyatta turned to his succession.
Gachagua was useful to Ruto in 2022. He had personal wealth, was an effective mobiliser and hailed from central Kenya where the election looked to be won or lost. However, once elected, Gachagua’s populist statements and reputation for ethnic bias became more of a liability.
Second, as contexts change, someone else can soon come to be seen as more useful as second in command.
For Jomo Kenyatta, Moi had shown his utility and loyalty during the “little general elections” of 1966, which effectively sidelined the Kenya People’s Union and Oginga Odinga.
Ruto nominated Kithure Kindiki, Kenya’s interior cabinet secretary, to replace Gachagua. He is seen as better able to negotiate with the international community, especially during a critical economic period for Kenya as it seeks new International Monetary Fund loans.
Third, being the country’s vice or deputy president comes with a lot of opportunities to network. These interactions have often led individuals to be seen as a growing threat, or as actively plotting against the president. They may also be seen as a future challenger.
History has shown that there is no ideal way of dealing with such a potential challenger, leading subsequent presidents to try different approaches.
Current context
Ruto and Gachagua have clearly fallen out. Their differences became apparent soon after the 2022 elections. However, they came into sharp relief in the face of anti-tax protests in June 2024. There were subsequent allegations that Gachagua and some of his allies had helped to finance the protests.
The question, therefore, isn’t why they have fallen out but why Gachagua is being impeached now.
Ultimately the answer to this can only be known by a few individuals. But perhaps an indication of the answer lies in the emotions the fallout has stirred: a desire to distract the public and show that the government is taking action to deal with Kenya’s ongoing economic crisis. There may also be a desire to undercut Gachagua before he can build national networks.
Ruto had the numbers in the senate to see the impeachment process through. But this is a dangerous game. Those sidelined have a habit of coming back to haunt their former allies.
At the moment, most Kenyans are supportive of the impeachment process, but many also feel that Gachagua is being unfairly targeted especially in central Kenya, where a majority oppose the process.
While a successful impeachment might see Gachagua barred from holding public office, this wouldn’t necessarily mean an end to his career as an effective political mobiliser.
The next few months – and the narratives that emerge about why Ruto and Gachagua fell out – will be critical in determining both their futures.
This article has been updated to reflect the 17 October 2024 senate decision to impeach Rigathi Gachagua.*
Gabrielle Lynch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Chee Meng Tan, Assistant Professor of Business Economics, University of Nottingham
During a Taiwan National Day speech on October 10, Taiwanese president Lai Ching-te said that Taipei was determined to defend Taiwan’s sovereignty against “annexation and encroachment”, and emphasised that “China has no right to represent Taiwan”.
China’s response was swift. Less than a week after Lai’s provocative speech, a record 153 Chinese war planes swarmed and surrounded Taiwan during a Chinese military exercise over 24 hours. Beijing’s intention was simple: issue Taipei a “stern warning” for what China considers a “separatist act”.
Though Washington doesn’t have diplomatic relations with Taipei officially, it does have regular communication through back channels and a strong economic relationship. The island is a key US trading partner and is a major supplier of semiconductors which are critical to the production of computers and other technologies. It also sells arms to Taiwan, although this has reduced significantly under Joe Biden.
China has not ruled out taking Taiwan by force, and if it does, the US might come to the self-ruling island’s defence as indicated by Washington in the past.
China holds extensive military exercises around the island of Taiwan in October 2024.
But Xi will be hoping the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election might bring a leader that would have a different attitude to Taiwan as well as helping China resolve its economic storm, which has resulted in a rising number of protests. So, between an outspoken Donald Trump and a seemingly even-tempered Kamala Harris, does Beijing have a favourite? And do either of them offer Xi anything new?
Taiwan and Xi’s legitimacy
Aside from Mao Zedong, the founder of the People’s Republic of China, Xi is the only sitting Chinese head of state without term limits and whose political ideology is enshrined in the Chinese constitution.
Xi could potentially prove his place in history by resolving China’s economic crisis. However, Beijing’s increasing isolation from the west due to its support of Russia’s Ukraine conquest makes this doubly hard.
Like it or not, Xi might have to ramp up whatever agenda Beijing has for Taiwan. If he could make sufficient progress towards unification, he may be hailed as one of the greats of the Chinese Communist Party, which would consolidate his status within the party, and distract from the nation’s economic woes.
Unlike Harris, who appears to take take alliances and partnerships seriously, Trump questions the benefits of many alliances forged by the US. In fact, the few times that he spoke about Taiwan centres on how the island state has taken America’s semiconductor business, and should pay more to the US for its defence.
So, would Trump come to Taiwan’s aid if China does invade Taiwan? Given the importance of semiconductors to electronics and AI, he just might. But Trump also has a reputation as a “dealmaker-in-chief”, so he might just cut a deal with Beijing, which erodes Taiwan’s independence. And that is likely to worry Taipei.
The Russia dilemma
As Russia’s “partner of no limits”, China has been supplying Russia with technology that fuels Russia’s war machinery against Ukraine. But this has strained Sino-western relations and earned Beijing trade and import restrictions, which hampers China’s economic recovery.
China could halt its aid to Russia to avoid western scrutiny, but that is not likely. Beijing needs a strong Russia to be a viable ally in its battle against a US-led world order, and to avoid being the focus of the west if Russia falters amid its conquest in Ukraine.
A future Trump administration might strengthen Russia by withdrawing support for Ukraine and lifting sanctions against Russia. And a more robust Russia is good news for Beijing.
US economic hostility
So, at first glance, Trump and Harris’s approaches towards China are different. Trump’s return to the White House could also intensify the trade war that he started in 2018, as tariffs on Chinese goods could go to as high as 60%. This might hasten the economic decoupling between the US and China.
Harris, on the other hand, wishes to “de-risk” China. This approach seeks to maintain US global interest while engaging with the east Asian economic behemoth. In such a scenario, Beijing might prefer a Harris presidency as it leaves room for negotiation.
How much influence the tech multi-billionaire actually has over Trump is uncertain. However, it’s worth noting that Musk has substantial business dealings in China, and might seek to lean on Trump if the former president’s policies harms Tesla’s interests.
With many of these factors unclear at the moment, Beijing will be hoping for a US leader who is more interested in economic wins than protecting Taiwan, and one that Xi can negotiate with to warm up relations between the two countries.
Chee Meng Tan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
The spectre of the Reform party has been haunting the Tories since the general election. There is a general consensus that Reform split the vote on the right of the ideological spectrum, and this significantly contributed to the Tory defeat.
And now that the more centrist candidate James Cleverly has been eliminated from the leadership contest, the party is heading in a rightward direction. Both of the two finalists, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenock are on the right of the party and appear to think the next election will hinge on winning votes back from Reform.
But are they right to see Reform as their main threat? The results of the last election are still being analysed but it already looks like our perception of how the rightwing vote played out may be wrong. The perception is that in many constituencies, Reform ate into votes that would have otherwise gone to the Conservatives, costing them parliamentary seats. But that isn’t quite right.
The chart below shows the relationship between the vote shares for the Conservatives and Reform in Britain in the general election, with each dot representing a constituency. The summary line shows that the correlation between the Reform vote and the Conservative vote is positive (+0.21). This means that the two parties were in effect electoral allies rather than rivals. Their vote shares increased in tandem. To be fair, the correlation is modest, so they were rather weak allies, but who can ask for more than that in this electoral climate?
It’s interesting to contrast this with the relationship between Labour and Conservative voting in the election. Their correlation was strong and negative (-0.54), indicating that they were clearly rivals. When Labour did well, the Conservatives did badly and vice versa. If Reform was a strong rival to the Conservatives, we would see the same pattern.
Rivals or allies? Constituency level votes
The Relationship between Conservative and Reform Vote Shares in 2024. P Whiteley, CC BY-ND
Why does the positive correlation show that Reform was an ally of the Conservatives in the election rather than a rival taking votes that would have gone to the Conservatives? The answer lies in the detail. The two parties did well in the same constituencies but appealed to different demographic groups within those constituencies. If they were campaigning for support in the same group of voters they would be rivals, but for the most part they relied on support from different groups.
This is illustrated in the chart below which looks at the social characteristics of constituencies using data from the 2021 census. It shows how different groups supported the two parties in the election.
The chart shows the correlations between the size of a particular group and voting for Reform and the Conservatives in the election. It looks at the 575 parliamentary constituencies in England and Wales, since the Scottish data is not yet available.
The relationships between constituency characteristics and voting in 2024
Less in common than you might think. P Whiteley, CC BY-NC-ND
We observe large differences between support for the two parties among the different groups. For example, looking at the percentage of people in constituencies over the age of 64, most of whom were retired, we see a big difference. There is a strong positive correlation between this measure and voting Conservative (0.45), indicating that the Tories did well among older people. The opposite is true for Reform, since the relationship is negative (although relatively weak at -0.17). Reform did not rely on older people’s support in the same way as the Conservatives.
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A similar point can be made about the percentages who worked in professional and higher management occupations. The Tories did well in this group, whereas Reform did badly. Among constituencies with high levels of unemployment, the reverse was true. A high proportion of unemployed people boosted the Reform vote and undermined the Conservative vote.
If we look at ethnicity, a high proportion of ethnically white people in constituencies helped Reform, but it weakened support for the Conservatives. This seems surprising at first sight until one remembers that many of them voted for Labour, the Liberal Democrats and Greens. The Tories lost a good proportion of the white vote in the election.
The census provided information about the numbers of people who had moved into constituencies from abroad in the previous year. Not surprisingly, given their anti-immigration positioning, large numbers of newly arrived migrants helped both parties, with Reform doing better in these areas than the Conservatives. That said, the correlations were modest and so did not play a large part in explaining the overall results.
Finally, the 2021 census asked people about their national identities and in this case there was an interesting difference between respondents who claimed they were exclusively “English” rather than ‘British’ or some other identity. Englishness helped both parties, but it helped the Conservatives more than Reform. It appears that the Tories are more of an English National Party than Reform.
The next general election is a long way off, but these results mean that if the Labour government fails to deliver growth and curb illegal immigration, it will face a pincer movement from the Conservative and Reform. The Tories will pick up votes in constituencies with a high proportion of prosperous, middle class, retired people and Reform will pick up votes from deprived areas with high levels of young unemployed people.
Paul Whiteley has received funding from the British Academy and the ESRC.
Source: The Conversation – UK – By Austin Kay, Researcher in Sustainable Advanced Materials, Centre for Integrative Semiconductor Materials, Swansea University
As the world races to meet net-zero targets, emissions from all industrial sectors must be reduced more urgently than ever. Agriculture is an important area of focus as it contributes up to 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions – almost as much as the energy sector.
One approach to decarbonising the agricultural sector is agrivoltaics. It involves integrating solar panels – or photovoltaics (PVs) – into fields of crops, greenhouses and livestock areas, which can help farmers reduce their carbon footprint while continuing to produce food.
Agrivoltaics can also mitigate one of the main criticisms often made of solar power – that solar farms “waste” vast tracts of agricultural land that could otherwise be used for food production. In reality, solar farms currently occupy only 0.15% of the UK’s total land – not much compared to its 70% agricultural land.
The simplest example of an agrivoltaic system would be conventional, crystalline silicon PVs (the market-leading type of solar panels), installed in fields alongside livestock. This method of farm diversification has become increasingly popular in recent years for three main reasons.
First, it enhances biodiversity as the fields are not seeing a regular crop rotation, being monocultured, or being harvested for silage. Second, it increases production as livestock benefit from the shade and the healthier pasture growth.
Finally, the solar farm has reduced maintenance costs because livestock can keep the grass short. All this is achieved while the solar panels provide locally-generated, clean energy.
But if they’re not set up properly, agrivoltaics may cause problems. One of the most important challenges is balancing the need for sunlight between crops and solar panels. Crops need light to grow, and if solar panels block too much sunlight, they can negatively impact crop yields.
This issue varies from place to place. In countries with fewer sunny days like the UK, the panels need to let more sunlight through. But in places like Spain or Italy, some shade can actually help crops by reducing the stress of intense heat during summer months. Finding the right balance is tricky, as it depends on local conditions, the type of crop, and even the needs of pollinators like bees.
The complexity deepens when we consider the type of PV material used. Traditional solar panels aren’t always suitable because they often block the wavelengths (colours) of light needed by plants.
This is where newer materials, like organic semiconductors and perovskites, are ideal as they can be customised to let crops get the light they need while still generating energy. Unlike traditional inorganic semiconductors, which are essentially crystals of metal and metalloid atoms, organic semiconductors are molecules mainly made of carbon and hydrogen. Perovskites, meanwhile, are like a hybrid of the two.
But there are thousands of combinations of these materials to choose from, with scientific literature containing a plethora of options. Figuring out which one works best can be a daunting task.
This is where computational tools can make a big difference. Instead of testing each material in real-world conditions – which would take years and be incredibly expensive – researchers can use simulations to predict their performance. These models can help identify the best materials for specific crops and climates, saving both time and resources.
The tool
We have developed an open-source tool that helps compare various PV materials, making it easier to identify the best options for agrivoltaics. Our tool uses geographical data and realistic simulations of how different PV materials perform.
It considers how light travels through these materials and reflects off them, as well as other important performance measures like voltage and power output. The tool can also take lab-based measurements of PV materials and apply them to real-world scenarios.
Using this tool, we simulated how much power different PV materials could generate per square metre over the course of a year, across various regions. And we calculated how much light passed through these materials to ensure it was enough for crops to thrive.
By running these simulations for multiple materials, we could identify the most suitable options for specific crops and climates.
Tools like ours could play a critical role in decarbonising the agricultural sector by guiding the design of agrivoltaic systems. Future research could combine these simulations with economic and environmental impact analyses. This would help us understand how much energy we can expect from a solar panel over its lifetime compared to the resources and costs involved in producing it.
Ultimately, our tool could help researchers and policymakers in selecting the most efficient, cost-effective and eco-friendly ways to decarbonise agriculture and move us closer to achieving global net-zero emissions.
Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?
Austin Kay is a Postgraduate Student at Swansea University and receives funding from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) through program grant EP/T028513/1 Application Targeted and Integrated Photovoltaics.
Tundu Lissu has become the face of opposition in Tanzania following his defiant and unrelenting criticism of the government. Since he came into the national limelight in 1995 when running for a parliamentary seat, Lissu has been a champion of democracy and human rights. He has taken on the ruling elite, exposing corruption and demanding accountability. This almost cost him his life in 2017.
In September 2024, new evidence presented at a London tribunal revealed that the telecommunications company Tigo had shared Lissu’s mobile phone data – including his location – with the Tanzanian government. The implication was that the company was assisting the government in its harassment of the politician. Tigo’s owners have distanced themselves from these reports.
The revelations coincided with a resurgence in government crackdowns on opposition figures.
In the most recent developments, leaders of the country’s main opposition party Chadema (Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo) – including Lissu, who is the party’s vice-chairperson, and chairman Freeman Mbowe – were arrested in September 2024. This followed their attempt to organise mass protests, which were foiled by the police. The protests had been organised to demand government accountability after the killing of a senior Chadema official and the disappearance of other party members believed to have been abducted by state operatives.
I have studied Tanzania’s political party dynamics for a decade and interviewed Lissu as part of my PhD research on the country’s democracy. Lissu’s persistence in tackling democratic backsliding in Tanzania has made him a formidable force, challenging the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi party.
There have been changes in the country since Magufuli’s death in March 2021 and a string of political reforms under President Samia Suluhu. This has created the space for Lissu and his party Chadema to establish an opposition that now threatens the ruling party’s six-decade hold on power. Presidential elections are due to be held in 2025.
So who is Lissu? What’s his history and how did he became involved in politics?
Early years
Lissu’s political activism began during his university years in the early 1990s. This marked the start of a career that would later shape Tanzania’s political landscape. Lissu studied law at the University of Dar es Salaam before going to the UK for a master’s degree in law.
His first foray into national politics came in 1995, when he vied for a parliamentary seat. He was 27. The election was Tanzania’s first under a multiparty system. It introduced Lissu to the arena of opposition politics following his defeat.
A year later, Lissu was one of the lead investigative lawyers for a public interest environmental law organisation investigating abuses and irregularities at a World Bank-backed gold mine in northern Tanzania. His early work focused on environmental and human rights.
Lissu and his colleague Rugemeleza Nshala were investigating the killing of 62 small-scale miners and the evictions of thousands at the mine in 1996. They were charged with sedition over these investigations. The government eventually stopped following up on the case.
Lissu thereafter worked on community land rights at the World Resources Institute, a global organisation focusing on policy research.
Parliamentary years
In 2010, Lissu won the parliamentary seat for Singida East under the opposition party Chadema. As a first-term member of parliament, he gained prominence by exposing significant state corruption scandals, particularly in the energy sector.
Lissu and other Chadema opposition figures became a formidable force, openly naming corrupt government officials and exposing grand theft.
They also began making calls for constitutional reform. These were aimed at addressing excessive presidential powers and the power imbalances of the union between Tanganyika and Zanzibar. This push culminated in then president Jakaya Kikwete initiating a constitutional review process in 2010.
Lissu’s legal acumen played out in the constituent assembly, the body convened to deliberate on constitutional reforms. However, the assembly, dominated by members of the ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi, rejected many of the key provisions of the draft constitution. It had been widely regarded as the “people’s draft” because it included citizen participation. Its key provisions included reduced presidential powers and the establishment of independent state institutions.
The process was to culminate in a referendum in 2014. This prematurely aborted and Tanzania went into the 2015 election without a new constitution.
In these elections, Lissu successfully defended his parliamentary seat. As a second-term legislator, he focused on strengthening Chadema’s presence. This included door-to-door conversations with the public and grassroots mobilisation to build the party.
The party’s momentum, however, was halted by a repressive regime under Magufuli, who became president in 2015. He cracked down on critics and instituted a partial ban on political rallies.
Lissu became very critical of Magufuli’s economic policies. In a public address in 2017, Magufuli admitted to the government’s tapping of Lissu’s phone and described those who opposed his own economic reforms as traitors. Soon after this, Lissu was shot 16 times after leaving parliament buildings in the capital, Dodoma.
Exile
Lissu officially went into exile in Belgium after the shooting. In 2020, he published Remaining in the Shadows: Parliament and Accountability in East Africa, a critical examination of the presidentialist systems in Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, which he argued had undermined democratic consolidation in the region.
Through this publication, Lissu continued his activism, challenging political structures.
His brief return to Tanzania to contest the presidency in 2020 was marked by repeated arrests and intimidation during the electoral campaign. After his loss to Magufuli, Lissu went back to Belgium.
It’s important to understand why Lissu and Chadema are viewed as a current threat in Tanzania.
The country is entering an election period. Local government elections are scheduled for November 2024 ahead of general elections in 2025.
The ruling party, Chama Cha Mapinduzi, has in the recent past relied on state violence to secure electoral victories. The last general election in 2020 was marred by violence, as well as intimidation of the opposition and censorship.
It looks likely that Chadema will once again nominate Lissu to contest the presidency in the 2025 general election against president Samia. Lissu’s fearlessness and defiance make him the best candidate to take on the ruling party. Samia has already described Lissu as a troublesome character.
With the ongoing opposition clampdown, it looks clear that the ruling party is once again willing to do whatever it will take to hold on to power. Even if Tanzania’s democracy suffers.
Nicodemus Minde is affiliated with the Institute for Security Studies.
Source: The Conversation – USA – By Sophie Blondel, Research Assistant Professor of Nuclear Engineering, University of Tennessee
A fusion experiment ran so hot that the wall materials facing the plasma retained defects.Christophe Roux/CEA IRFM, CC BY
Fusion energy has the potential to be an effective clean energy source, as its reactions generate incredibly large amounts of energy. Fusion reactors aim to reproduce on Earth what happens in the core of the Sun, where very light elements merge and release energy in the process. Engineers can harness this energy to heat water and generate electricity through a steam turbine, but the path to fusion isn’t completely straightforward.
Controlled nuclear fusion has several advantages over other power sources for generating electricity. For one, the fusion reaction itself doesn’t produce any carbon dioxide. There is no risk of meltdown, and the reaction doesn’t generate any long-lived radioactive waste.
I’m a nuclear engineer who studies materials that scientists could use in fusion reactors. Fusion takes place at incredibly high temperatures. So to one day make fusion a feasible energy source, reactors will need to be built with materials that can survive the heat and irradiation generated by fusion reactions.
Fusion material challenges
Several types of elements can merge during a fusion reaction. The one most scientists prefer is deuterium plus tritium. These two elements have the highest likelihood of fusing at temperatures that a reactor can maintain. This reaction generates a helium atom and a neutron, which carries most of the energy from the reaction.
Humans have successfully generated fusion reactions on Earth since 1952 – some even in their garage. But the trick now is to make it worth it. You need to get more energy out of the process than you put in to initiate the reaction.
Fusion reactions happen in a very hot plasma, which is a state of matter similar to gas but made of charged particles. The plasma needs to stay extremely hot – over 100 million degrees Celsius – and condensed for the duration of the reaction.
To keep the plasma hot and condensed and create a reaction that can keep going, you need special materials making up the reactor walls. You also need a cheap and reliable source of fuel.
While deuterium is very common and obtained from water, tritium is very rare. A 1-gigawatt fusion reactor is expected to burn 56 kilograms of tritium annually. But the world has only about 25 kilograms of tritium commercially available.
Researchers need to find alternative sources for tritium before fusion energy can get off the ground. One option is to have each reactor generating its own tritium through a system called the breeding blanket.
The breeding blanket makes up the first layer of the plasma chamber walls and contains lithium that reacts with the neutrons generated in the fusion reaction to produce tritium. The blanket also converts the energy carried by these neutrons to heat.
The fusion reaction chamber at ITER will electrify the plasma.
Fusion devices also need a divertor, which extracts the heat and ash produced in the reaction. The divertor helps keep the reactions going for longer.
These materials will be exposed to unprecedented levels of heat and particle bombardment. And there aren’t currently any experimental facilities to reproduce these conditions and test materials in a real-world scenario. So, the focus of my research is to bridge this gap using models and computer simulations.
From the atom to full device
My colleagues and I work on producing tools that can predict how the materials in a fusion reactor erode, and how their properties change when they are exposed to extreme heat and lots of particle radiation.
As they get irradiated, defects can form and grow in these materials, which affect how well they react to heat and stress. In the future, we hope that government agencies and private companies can use these tools to design fusion power plants.
Our approach, called multiscale modeling, consists of looking at the physics in these materials over different time and length scales with a range of computational models.
We first study the phenomena happening in these materials at the atomic scale through accurate but expensive simulations. For instance, one simulation might examine how hydrogen moves within a material during irradiation.
From these simulations, we look at properties such as diffusivity, which tells us how much the hydrogen can spread throughout the material.
We can integrate the information from these atomic level simulations into less expensive simulations, which look at how the materials react at a larger scale. These larger-scale simulations are less expensive because they model the materials as a continuum instead of considering every single atom.
The atomic-scale simulations could take weeks to run on a supercomputer, while the continuum one will take only a few hours.
All this modeling work happening on computers is then compared with experimental results obtained in laboratories.
For example, if one side of the material has hydrogen gas, we want to know how much hydrogen leaks to the other side of the material. If the model and the experimental results match, we can have confidence in the model and use it to predict the behavior of the same material under the conditions we would expect in a fusion device.
If they don’t match, we go back to the atomic-scale simulations to investigate what we missed.
Additionally, we can couple the larger-scale material model to plasma models. These models can tell us which parts of a fusion reactor will be the hottest or have the most particle bombardment. From there, we can evaluate more scenarios.
For instance, if too much hydrogen leaks through the material during the operation of the fusion reactor, we could recommend making the material thicker in certain places, or adding something to trap the hydrogen.
Designing new materials
As the quest for commercial fusion energy continues, scientists will need to engineer more resilient materials. The field of possibilities is daunting – engineers can manufacture multiple elements together in many ways.
You could combine two elements to create a new material, but how do you know what the right proportion is of each element? And what if you want to try mixing five or more elements together? It would take way too long to try to run our simulations for all of these possibilities.
Thankfully, artificial intelligence is here to assist. By combining experimental and simulation results, analytical AI can recommend combinations that are most likely to have the properties we’re looking for, such as heat and stress resistance.
The aim is to reduce the number of materials that an engineer would have to produce and test experimentally to save time and money.
Sophie Blondel receives funding from the US Department of Energy.
