Category: Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Bronze-age Britain traded tin with the Mediterranean, shows new study – settling a two-century debate

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Benjamin Roberts, Associate Professor in Later European Prehistory, Durham University

    Bronze age tin ingot from Salcombe, England. Benjamin Roberts / Alan Williams

    Tin was the critical mineral of the ancient world. It was essential to alloy with copper to make bronze, which for many centuries was the preferred metal for tools and weapons. Yet sources of tin are very scarce – and were especially so for the rapidly growing bronze age towns, cities and states around the eastern Mediterranean.

    Though major tin deposits are found in western and central Europe and in central Asia, by far the richest and most accessible tin ores are in Cornwall and Devon in southwest Britain. Yet it has been difficult to prove that these British deposits were used as a source for people in the eastern Mediterranean. So for more than two centuries, archaeologists have debated about where bronze age societies obtained their tin.

    In a new study published in the journal Antiquity, our team analysed the chemistry and different forms of particular elements in tin ores and artefacts from across Britain and Europe. These included tin ingots found at prehistoric shipwreck sites at Salcombe and Erme, southwest Britain, as well as in the Mediterranean.


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    This revealed that tin ingots from three ancient shipwrecks discovered off the coast of Israel and one shipwreck found off the Mediterranean coast of France originated in southwest Britain. The shipwrecks found near Israel date to around 1300BC, while the wreck from France has been dated to around 600BC.

    Small farming communities across Cornwall and Devon would have dug, washed, crushed and smelted the abundant tin ore from the alluvial deposits in the region. The heavy sand to gravel-sized tin ore is in a layer buried under soft layers of barren silt, sand and gravel.

    The tin ore is eroded from hard rock mineral veins and deposited by streams and rivers. There was simply no need for any complex and difficult mining of hard rock here. The tin would then have been taken to coastal locations where it could be traded.

    It’s probable that the tin was then moved by traders through France to the Mediterranean coast, where it was loaded onto ships. It would make its way through flourishing trade networks between the islands of Sardinia and Cyprus before reaching markets in the east Mediterranean. The tin’s value would have increased immensely as it progressed along this 2,485 mile (4,000km) journey.

    Tin is the first commodity to have been exported across the entire European continent. It was produced and traded at a potentially vast scale, but is rarely found in archaeological sites due to corrosion. But what we do known is that by 1,300BC, virtually all of Europe and the Mediterranean had widespread and consistent access to bronze.

    We know of more than 100 bronze age copper mines from Ireland to Israel and from Spain to the southern Urals in Russia. Yet these would have been just a small proportion of the copper mines active at the time.

    Given that bronze was typically made from 90% copper and 10% tin, if the copper produced by each of these known mines had to be matched by 10% tin, then tens or even hundreds of tonnes of tin were being traded each year – perhaps across distances of thousands of miles.

    St Michael’s Mount may be the site of the ancient island Ictis.
    Alan Williams

    The volume, consistency and frequency of the estimated scale in the tin trade is far larger than has been previously imagined and requires an entirely new perspective on what bronze age miners and merchants were able to achieve. It is no coincidence that it is around 1,300BC that technologies from the east, such as sophisticated systems for weighing items, as well as bronze swords, reached small farming communities living on the Atlantic coasts.

    A millennium later, around 320BC, Pytheas the Greek, from Massalia (modern Marseilles), journeyed by land and sea to Britain, which was at the edge of the known world at the time. Pytheas wrote the earliest account describing the island and its inhabitants in a book which is now lost, but which has partially survived in snippets quoted by later classical authors.

    Pytheas described how tin in southwest Britain was extracted and traded off a tidal island he called Ictis, before being taken across the sea and down the rivers of France to the mouth of the Rhone in only 30 days. In our research, we provide the first direct evidence for the tin trade Pytheas described. We show that tin from the Rochelongue shipwreck, off the south coast of France and dating to around 600BC, came from southwest Britain.

    While we can establish the movement of tin across the seas, we know very little about the markets on land in which it was traded. We are now working with a team of archaeologists from Cornwall to excavate on the tidal island of St Michael’s Mount, which has long thought to have been the island of Ictis described by Pytheas.

    A pan-continental tin trade continued in all periods after the bronze age and, in the absence of written records, our approach, using different methods of analysis, allows us to determine whether the tin came from Britain.

    Historical records show that during the medieval period, tin from Cornwall and Devon enjoyed a virtual European monopoly, with production continuing until the last tin mine closed in 1998.

    Today, tin is once again a critical and strategic mineral, this time for use in the electronics industry. As such it forms a vital part of the tools and weapons of the 21st century. Cornwall’s tin production is also set to soon restart, reviving a 4,000 year old industry.

    Benjamin Roberts was PI on Project Ancient Tin which was funded by the Leverhulme Trust (Grant RPG-2019-333).

    Alan Williams was the post doc on Project Ancient Tin which was funded by the Leverhulme Trust (Grant RPG-2019-333).

    ref. Bronze-age Britain traded tin with the Mediterranean, shows new study – settling a two-century debate – https://theconversation.com/bronze-age-britain-traded-tin-with-the-mediterranean-shows-new-study-settling-a-two-century-debate-256005

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: A promising new approach to treating potentially deadly liver disease

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Maria Teresa Borrello, Lecturer, University of Sunderland

    Jo Panuwat D/Shutterstock

    An experimental new treatment is showing early promise in the fight against liver fibrosis – a serious and often silent condition that affects around 2 million people in the UK.

    Liver fibrosis happens when the liver becomes damaged – often due to long-term issues like alcohol use, obesity or chronic infections – and starts to develop scar tissue. Over time, that scarring can get worse and lead to serious complications such as liver failure or cancer.

    The problem is that most people don’t know they have it until the damage is advanced. And there are no approved drugs to stop or reverse the scarring process.

    In a recent study, my colleagues and I found that blocking an enzyme called HDAC6 with new drugs could help reduce liver scarring in people with liver fibrosis.

    This discovery could form the basis of future treatments and offer hope for those living with chronic liver conditions.


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    Fibrosis occurs when the liver responds to injury by producing too much of the material that normally helps repair tissue, known as the “extracellular matrix”. Over time, this repair process can become unbalanced, leading to a buildup of scar tissue.

    A key part of this process involves hepatic stellate cells. When the liver is injured, these normally inactive cells become activated and turn into scar-producing cells that drive fibrosis.

    HDAC6 helps control how cells respond to stress and inflammation and how they move and organise themselves. Our recent research suggests it also plays an important role in turning on the liver cells that cause scarring after injury. That’s why we’re exploring HDAC6 as a potential target for new treatments that could help prevent or even reverse liver fibrosis.

    In our lab, we developed two new drugs specifically designed to block HDAC6 activity.

    Liver fibrosis explained.

    Liver slices

    To see if these compounds could be useful as treatments, we tested them on precision-cut slices of human liver tissue at Newcastle University. This model keeps the liver’s natural 3D structure and mix of cells, making it a valuable way to study how diseases develop and how drugs might work.

    Our results were striking. Treating the liver slices with HDAC6 inhibitors greatly reduced signs of fibrosis, showing that these compounds can stop – and possibly even reverse – the scarring process at the cellular level.

    The inhibitors showed very little toxicity, suggesting they could be safe for further development.

    This research is a step forward in finding a treatment for liver fibrosis. Unlike previous treatments that targeted broad mechanisms or caused side-effects, our HDAC6 inhibitors provide a more targeted approach. By focusing on a key cause of fibrosis, we may be able to stop the disease before it reaches irreversible stages.

    The implications are enormous. Liver disease is responsible for around 4% of premature deaths globally, and the burden is rising in line with alcohol misuse, obesity, and the use of multiple medications (known as “polypharmacy”). A targeted therapy that interrupts fibrosis at its root could change the lives of tens of thousands of patients annually – not only in the UK but around the world.

    While these early findings are encouraging, more work is needed before HDAC6 inhibitors can be tested in humans.

    Our next steps include refining the experimental drugs, testing their effects in lab animals, and looking at how they might work alongside existing treatments.

    As researchers and healthcare professionals seek new ways to tackle chronic diseases, targeted approaches like this one could redefine how we treat conditions once considered untreatable. For patients with liver fibrosis, this new knowledge could mean a longer, healthier life for millions of people with liver fibrosis.

    Maria Teresa Borrello does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. A promising new approach to treating potentially deadly liver disease – https://theconversation.com/a-promising-new-approach-to-treating-potentially-deadly-liver-disease-253924

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Why are India and Pakistan on the brink of war and how dangerous is the situation? An expert explains

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex

    India has launched military strikes against a number of sites in Pakistan and Pakistan’s side of the disputed region of Kashmir, reportedly killing 26 people and injuring dozens more. India claimed the attacks were on terrorist infrastructure, but Pakistan denied this, and said these were civilians.

    India says another ten people on the Indian side of the Kashmir region have been killed by shelling from Pakistan in the same period.

    The exchange comes two weeks after a terrorist attack in Kashmir killed 26 people. The group Resistance Front (TRF), which India argues is a proxy for the Pakistani-based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba, claimed responsibility for the attack.

    India claimed that Pakistan had indirectly supported the terrorist attack, but Pakistan vehemently denies this.

    The escalating conflict between two of the world’s major military powers has the potential to destablise Asia and beyond. Already, many countries around the world, including the UK, France and Russia, have made public their concerns about what happens next.


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    How do India and Pakistan’s militaries compare?

    India is ranked as one of the world’s top five military nations by Military Watch magazine and Pakistan is ranked ninth. Both countries have nuclear weapons.

    Overall, India is considered to have the military edge with a bigger and more modern military force, while Pakistan has a smaller and more agile force that has been primarily focused on defensive and covert activities.

    While neither country has used nuclear weapons in a conflict, there are always concerns that this norm may be broken. Both countries are nuclear powers with India holding 180 nuclear warheads, and Pakistan possessing about 170.

    Though India has a “no first use” policy, which it claims means the country would never use nuclear weapons first, there have been signs it is reconsidering this policy since 2019.

    Pakistan has never declared a no first use policy and argues that tactical nuclear weapons are important to countering India’s larger conventional forces.

    Details of Indian air strikes.

    The concern is that even if a small nuclear exchange were to take place between the two countries, it could kill up to 20 million people in a matter of days.

    Why are the countries fighting over Kashmir?

    Kashmir has been a source of tension and conflict even before India and Pakistan gained independence from the British empire in 1947. Originally the Muslim-majority Kashmir was free to accede to either India or Pakistan.

    While the local ruler (maharaja), Hari Singh, originally wanted Kashmir to be independent, he eventually sided with India, leading to a conflict in 1947. This resulted in a UN-mediated ceasefire in 1949 and agreement that Kashmir would be controlled partly by Pakistan and partly by India, splitl along what’s known as the Line of Surveillance (or Line of Control).

    As Kashmir is rich in minerals such as borax, sapphire, graphite, marble, gypsum and lithium, the region is strategically important. It is also culturally and historically important to both Pakistan and India.




    Read more:
    India and Pakistan tension escalates with suspension of historic water treaty


    Due to the region’s significance and disagreement over sovereignty, multiple conflicts have taken place over Kashmir, with wars erupting in 1965 and 1999. Tensions were renewed in 2016, after 19 Indian soldiers were killed in Uri, on the Indian side of Kashmir. India responded by launching “surgical strikes” across the Line of Control, targeting alleged militant bases.

    Then in 2019, a bombing in Pulwama (again part of the Indian-administered Kashmir) that killed more than 40 Indian paramilitary personnel led to Indian airstrikes in Balakot which borders Kashmir. This was the first action inside Pakistan since the Indian-Pakistani conflict in 1971 and again led to retaliatory raids from Pakistan and a brief aerial conflict.

    A map of the Kashmir region.
    CIA, CC BY

    These past conflicts never intensified further in part because India applied a massive diplomatic pressure campaign on the US, the UK and Pakistan, warning against escalation, while Pakistan showed a willingness to back down. Both sides as nuclear powers (India gained nuclear weapons in 1974 and Pakistan in 1998) had an understanding that escalating to full-scale war would be incredibly risky.

    What will happen next?

    The question is whether or not cooler heads will prevail this time. The strikes by India, part of Operation Sinhoor, were met with mass approval across many political lines in India, with both the ruling Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) and the opposition Congress party voicing their support for the operation.

    This helps Modi gain more backing, at a time when his popularity has been falling. Modi and the BJP suffered a shocking result in the 2024 election, losing 63 seats out of 543 seats and falling short of a majority in the Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament).

    Under Modi, India has been rapidly becoming more autocratic, another source of concern as such countries are more likely to take risks when it comes to conflict. As power becomes increasingly personalised and dissent is repressed, would-be autocrats may be more likely to take on bold moves to garner more public and elite support.

    Pakistan may also have reason to respond with more force to India’s recent attack than in the past. Pakistan’s powerful military has often stoked fears of a conflict with India to justify its enormous military budget. Regardless of the outcome, it needs a success to sell to its domestic audience.

    Pakistan has been de facto led by its military for decades, which also makes it more likely to engage in conflict. In spite of intervals of civilian rule, the military has always held a lot of power, and in contrast to India (where there is a wider role for a civilian minister of defence), the Pakistani military has more influence over nuclear and security policy.

    Both military regimes and multi-party autocracies may see conflict as a way of gaining legitimacy, particularly if both regimes think their political support is unravelling.


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    This most recent escalation is also significant because it is the first time in the Kashmir conflict that India has struck at Punjab, considered the heart of Pakistan. Pakistan will face internal pressure to respond, settle the score and restore deterrence.

    Both sides have been resolute in not losing an inch of territory. The question is how quickly diplomatic pressure can work. Neither India nor Pakistan are engaged in security dialogue, and there is no bilateral crisis management mechanisms in place.

    Further complicating matters is that the US’s role as a crisis manager in south Asia has diminished. Under Donald Trump, Washington cannot be counted on. This all makes deescalating this conflict much more difficult.

    Natasha Lindstaedt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Why are India and Pakistan on the brink of war and how dangerous is the situation? An expert explains – https://theconversation.com/why-are-india-and-pakistan-on-the-brink-of-war-and-how-dangerous-is-the-situation-an-expert-explains-256125

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Fighting in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is worsening gender-based violence against women

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Annie Bunting, Professor of Law & Society, York University, York Research Chair in International Gender Justice & Peacebuilding, York University, Canada

    In early 2025, the March 23 Movement (M23) armed group seized control of Goma and then Bukavu, two major cities in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

    M23’s advance and control in eastern DRC, in defiance of ceasefire agreements, has terrorized communities and led to mass displacement. More than two million people have since been internally displaced in eastern DRC; close to one million people were displaced in 2024 alone.




    Read more:
    M23’s capture of Goma is the latest chapter in eastern Congo’s long-running war


    Civilians are caught in a devastating humanitarian crisis involving sexual and gender-based violence. This kind of violence not only contributes to forced displacement, but displaced women are also more at risk of gender-based violence during times of ongoing fighting.

    Furthermore, signs point to gendered violence worsening: in just the last two weeks of February 2025, UNHCR reported 895 reports of humanitarian workers being raped. Previous research has shown that sexual and gender-based violence continues through periods of political transition, and
    worsens
    when state militaries are weaker than rebel forces.

    The risks and drivers of displacement

    To understand these risks, in December 2024 researchers with the Congolese organization Solidarité Féminine Pour La Paix et le Développement Intégral (SOFEPADI) interviewed 89 displaced women and 30 members of civil society organizations working in internally displaced person camps around Goma.

    We worked with a team of researchers from SOFEPADI, co-ordinated by SOFEPADI program officer Martin Baguma and national co-ordinator Sandrine Lusamba, and with research assistance from Cora Fletcher, a master’s student at Dalhousie University, to put together our recently published report that outlines some of the key findings from the interviews.

    The overwhelming majority of respondents had experienced or witnessed sexual and gender-based violence. While interviewers were careful to avoid direct questions so as not to induce trauma, dozens of women nonetheless disclosed personal experiences.

    These interviews show just how vulnerable the population is, and how an already dire situation for women and girls has been made exponentially worse over the past six months.

    Displaced women were extremely likely to have experienced conflict-related sexual and gender-based violence: 97 per cent of those interviewed were victims of or had witnessed violence during the conflict, with one stating that sexual violence had contributed to their displacement:

    “I was living in Kitshanga and then the war started, but I didn’t leave right away. One day I went to the field and I was raped. That’s the day I left Kitshanga and I came here [to the camp].”

    Over 70 per cent of interviewees identified M23 as the direct cause of their displacement. A further five per cent indicated that their displacement had been caused by Rwanda’s armed forces, either alone or in conjunction with M23.

    One woman from Kitshanga, a town roughly 150 kilometres away from Goma, stated that she had been displaced following “massacres, rapes, and the war…caused by the M23.”

    Perpetrators everywhere, protection nowhere

    M23 troops were not the only group identified as being responsible for perpetrating sexual and gender-based violence during displacement and in the camps. The crisis has led to widespread gender violence perpetrated by armed groups and forces, including the Congolese military and military-allied militias, civilians and groups of bandits.

    The breadth of perpetrators, challenges in identifying perpetrators, and the shifting status of civilians/ militia members all impact opportunities to hold individuals accountable and to meaningfully prevent sexual and gender-based violence through targeted initiatives.

    Despite the significant number of international forces operating in eastern DRC, both civil society representatives and displaced women expressed little confidence in these forces’ ability to prevent sexual and gender-based violence.

    Goma remains the operational centre of the United Nations MONUSCO peacekeeping mission. Yet, of the 89 displaced women interviewed, only one identified MONUSCO troops as providing security in the areas surrounding the camps. In the eyes of most of the respondents, international forces are simply absent.

    Scattered survivors and thwarted justice

    Since the M23 takeover, international attention has been drawn to the crisis, and there is renewed focus by the International Criminal Court on combatting impunity and securing accountability for atrocity crimes.

    Organizations on the ground, however, remain under-resourced and over-stretched. Access to healthcare (including mental health support), banking, economic support, children’s education, and justice are all severely constrained – a point consistently emphasized by affected women interviewed.

    Repeated displacement of vulnerable people, including survivors of sexual and gender-based violence, is likely to further frustrate attempts at holding responsible actors to account, has made it near-impossible to track where women are going, to provide necessary and ongoing support.

    With the recent order from M23 for civilians to leave IDP camps, already uprooted women are displaced once again, with little access to humanitarian aid. Civilians have been dispersed, with many unable to return to their villages due to fighting.

    Others have returned to find their homes have been burned or looted and there is tension between neighbours over access to land and resources. Human rights defenders are also at grave risk of violence, with mass prison breaks and legal institutions not functioning.

    The need for action

    The DRC government and M23 have reportedly resumed peace talks to end the fighting. The security situation in eastern DRC is shifting rapidly, and the context that these interviews took place in only three short months ago has changed. The airport in Goma remains closed, thwarting the flow of humanitarian aid. What remains consistent are high levels of forced displacement, sexual and gender-based violence and an internationalized conflict that has worsened women’s security.

    With women and girls uniquely and disproportionately impacted, responses to this dire security situation must include and urgent and durable ceasefire and increased humanitarian support.

    Women must be at peace talks. Immediate steps must be taken to alleviate humanitarian suffering, to protect women and girls from further violence and abuse, and to move toward a peaceful resolution that results in Congolese civilians able to return to their homes and begin the process of recovering from this devastating conflict.

    Annie Bunting receives funding from the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme, funded by the UK Department for International Development.

    Heather Tasker receives funding from the UK International Development through the Cross-Border Conflict Evidence, Policy and Trends (XCEPT) research programme.

    ref. Fighting in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is worsening gender-based violence against women – https://theconversation.com/fighting-in-eastern-democratic-republic-of-congo-is-worsening-gender-based-violence-against-women-255374

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Culture wars, political polarization and deepening inequality: the roots of Trumpism

    Source: The Conversation – France – By Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy, Spécialiste de la politique américaine, Sciences Po

    More than 100 days into his return to the White House, the conclusion is stark: Donald Trump is no longer the same president he was during his first term. His familiar nationalist and populist rhetoric is now openly paired with an authoritarian turn – one without precedent in US history. He has adopted a neo-imperial view of the economy, treating the global order as a zero-sum contest of winners and losers. In this worldview, cooperation gives way to domination: what matters is power and the accumulation of wealth.

    Having withstood two impeachment procedures, numerous lawsuits and at least one assassination attempt, Trump now governs with what can appear to be unchecked authority. To his followers, he has become a hero, a martyr – almost a messianic figure. He no longer sees democracy as a framework to be honoured, but as a tool to legitimize his hold on power. His decisive electoral victory now serves as a mandate to cast aside institutional limits.


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    Three key features define his style of governance: a radical centralization of executive power grounded in the theory of the “unitary executive”; the politicization of the Department of Justice, used as a weapon against rivals; and the manipulation of federal authority to target cultural, media and educational institutions. His playbook is chaos: unsettle opponents, dominate the media narrative and blur the boundaries of democratic norms. Impulsive and reactionary, Trump often governs in response to Fox News segments or trending posts on Truth Social. Instability has become a strategic tool.

    But Trump is not a historical anomaly. While his 2016 victory may have seemed unlikely, his re-election reflects a deeper, long-term transformation rooted in the post-Cold War era.

    From an external to an internal enemy

    The collapse of the USSR – a structuring external enemy – redirected political confrontation toward the designation of an internal enemy. The culture war has become the dominant ideological battleground, driven by two closely linked forces. On one side, a religious radicalization led by nationalist Christian movements – such as the New Apostolic Reformation – seeks to roll back social progress and promote the vision of an outright theocracy. On the other, growing racial anxiety is fueled by fears of white demographic decline and resistance to civil rights gains.

    The commentator Pat Buchanan saw it coming as early as the 1990s. Speaking at the 1992 Republican National Convention, he warned: “There is a cultural war going on for the soul of America… as critical as the Cold War itself.” Too radical for his time, Buchanan championed a white, Christian, conservative US hostile to cosmopolitan elites. Though marginalized then, his ideas laid the groundwork for what would become Trumpism.

    Newt Gingrich, who served as Speaker of the House from 1995 to 1999, played a pivotal role in reshaping both the Republican party and US politics. A Republican group he chaired famously distributed a pamphlet to Republican candidates titled “Language: A Key Mechanism of Control”, advising them to use uplifting language to describe themselves, and inflammatory terms like “corrupt”, “immoral” and “traitor” to describe their opponents. This aggressive rhetoric redefined political rivals as enemies to be defeated – helping pave the way for a right-wing politics in which winning trumps democratic norms.

    At the same time, the rise of a new conservative media ecosystem intensified polarization. The launch of Fox News in 1996, the growth of right-wing talk radio shows like Rush Limbaugh’s and the later explosion of social media gave the US right powerful tools to shape and radicalize public opinion. Today, algorithm-driven information bubbles trap citizens in alternate realities, where misinformation and outrage drown out reasoned debate. This has deepened polarization and fractured society as a whole.

    Channeling anger

    This ideological and media realignment has unfolded alongside a broader crisis: the unraveling of the post-Cold War neoliberal consensus. Promises of shared prosperity have been replaced by deindustrialization, deepening inequality and widespread resentment. Successive traumas – from 9/11 and the 2008 financial crash to the Covid-19 pandemic – and foreign wars without real victories have eroded public trust in the establishment.

    Trump channels this anger. He offers a vision of a restored and idealized America, a rollback of recent social gains, and a reassertion of national identity grounded in religion and race. His populism is not a coherent ideology but an emotional response – born of perceived injustice, humiliation and loss.

    Trump is more than a symptom of America’s democratic crisis: he is its most vivid manifestation. He embodies the legacy of the 1990s – a foundational decade of identity grievance, culture wars and media deregulation. Viewed as a political outsider, he has never been judged as a traditional politician, but rather embraced, by some, as the archetypal “self-made man” – a successful businessman and reality TV celebrity.

    His rhetoric – transgressive, provocative and often cruel – gives voice to what had been repressed. The humiliation of opponents becomes part of the performance. For his supporters, it’s exhilarating. It breaks taboos, flouts political correctness and feeds the fantasy of reclaiming a lost America.

    And he’s no longer alone. With the vocal support of economic and tech elites like Elon Musk – now a central figure in the radicalized right on X – Trumpism has entered a new phase. Together, they’ve outlined a new kind of authoritarian, cultural and digital power, where influence matters more than institutions.

    The US re-elected not just a man, but a style, an era and a worldview built on dominance, disruption and disdain for rules. Still, history is unwritten: intoxicated by hubris and undermined by incompetence, Trumpism may yet crash into the wall of reality – with consequences far beyond America’s borders.

    Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy ne travaille pas, ne conseille pas, ne possède pas de parts, ne reçoit pas de fonds d’une organisation qui pourrait tirer profit de cet article, et n’a déclaré aucune autre affiliation que son organisme de recherche.

    ref. Culture wars, political polarization and deepening inequality: the roots of Trumpism – https://theconversation.com/culture-wars-political-polarization-and-deepening-inequality-the-roots-of-trumpism-255778

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The UK government wants to expand the sugar tax to milkshakes and plant-based drinks – here’s what you need to know

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David M. Evans, Professor of Sociotechnical Futures, University of Bristol Business School, University of Bristol

    Luis Molinero/Shutterstock

    The UK government is considering expanding its sugar tax on fizzy drinks to include milkshakes and other sweetened beverages, as part of new proposals announced in April 2025. The soft drinks industry levy (SDIL), to give it its official name, was introduced in 2018 to reduce people’s sugar intake and help tackle obesity. For soft drinks containing 5-8g of sugar per 100ml, a levy of 18p per litre is applied. This rises to 24p per litre for soft drinks containing over 8g per 100ml.

    The Treasury confirmed it plans to move forward not only with broadening the tax but also with lowering the sugar threshold that triggers it from 5g to 4g of sugar per 100ml. The changes, dubbed by critics as the “milkshake tax”, would end the current exemption for dairy-based drinks, as well as plant-based alternatives such as oat and rice milk.

    Based on our research into dietary change, conducted as part of the H3 project on food system transformation, we see this as a welcome and timely development.

    Not everyone shares this optimism. Opponents of what they see as “nanny state” interventionist policies argue that the SDIL has failed to deliver any real improvements to public health. In a UK newspaper’s straw poll, for example, 88% of respondents claimed the sugar tax has not significantly reduced obesity rates. Shadow Chancellor Melvyn Stride described the proposed expansion as a “sucker punch” to households, particularly given the ongoing cost of living crisis.

    Scepticism around these proposals is not surprising. Many people, regardless of political affiliation, are wary of additional taxation. And indeed, there is evidence suggesting that fiscal tools such as taxes and subsidies can be blunt instruments. They are also often regressive, placing a disproportionate burden on lower-income households.

    These concerns are valid – but they don’t quite apply to the SDIL.

    Crucially, the SDIL is not a tax on consumers. It is levied on manufacturers and importers, who are incentivised to reduce the sugar content of their products to avoid the charge. Many have done exactly that. For instance, the Japanese multinational brewing and distilling company group Suntory invested £13 million in reformulating drinks like Ribena and Lucozade, removing 25,000 tonnes of sugar, making the products exempt from the levy.

    According to Treasury figures, since the introduction of the SDIL, 89% of fizzy drinks sold in the UK have been reformulated to fall below the taxable threshold. This means households aren’t priced out of buying soft drinks – they can simply choose reformulated and presumably cheaper versions.

    It’s true that the UK is still grappling with a serious obesity problem. In England alone, 29% of adults and 15% of children aged two to 15 are obese.

    But the SDIL is having an effect. There has been a clear reduction in the sales of sugar from soft drinks, and the SDIL is reported to have generated £1.9 billion in revenue since its introduction in 2018.




    Read more:
    Sugary drinks are a killer: a 20% tax would save lives and rands in South Africa


    Early signs suggest health benefits, too. One study found a drop in obesity rates among 10 to 11-year-old girls following the levy’s implementation. Another analysis suggests that the greatest health benefits will be seen in more deprived areas, and that it may actually help to narrow some health inequalities for children in England.

    Shifting responsibilty

    Of course, the SDIL is no silver bullet. Excessive sugar consumption is consistently associated with rising obesity rates in the UK and globally. However, there are many contributing factors to the obesity epidemic, ranging from genetic predisposition to “obesogenic” environmentssocial contexts that promote unhealthy eating and sedentary behaviour, such as areas with a lot of fast food restaurants, limited access to healthy food options and a lack of pavements, parks, or safe places to exercise.

    Questions remain about the negative health effects of reformulated drinks, some of which still contain high levels of sweeteners or additives. And in the broader context of the need for food system transformation, focusing solely on soft drinks may be too narrow an approach.




    Read more:
    Are artificial sweeteners okay for our health? Here’s what the current evidence says


    But the SDIL’s success lies not just in outcomes but in its design. It shifts responsibility from individuals to industry, encouraging systemic change rather than simply blaming people for making “bad” choices. The government’s 2016 announcement of the levy gave manufacturers a two-year head start, allowing them to reformulate and get their products to market before it took effect in 2018.

    The government’s 2016 announcement of the sugar tax gave manufacturers time to reformulate products before the tax’s introduction in 2018.

    It’s also telling that the idea of taxing milkshakes has sparked such outrage, while most people now accept the high taxation of tobacco. That’s because smoking, as a public health issue, has matured: its risks are well understood and widely acknowledged. Obesity, meanwhile, is still catching up, despite posing similar health threats, including as a leading cause of cancer.

    In the UK, there’s still a strong social stigma around discussing diet and weight. But given the scale and urgency of the obesity crisis, it could be time to overcome this reluctance. Effective change will require bold, systemic policies – not just public awareness campaigns – but multipronged and targeted interventions that reshape the economic and cultural environments in which people make food choices.

    Expanding the SDIL may not be a cure-all, but the evidence so far suggests it’s a smart step in the right direction.

    David M. Evans receives funding from the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (grant ref: BB/V004719/1).
    He is affiliated with Defra (the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) as a member of their Social Science Expert Group.

    Jonathan Beacham receives funding from the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (grant ref: BB/V004719/1).

    ref. The UK government wants to expand the sugar tax to milkshakes and plant-based drinks – here’s what you need to know – https://theconversation.com/the-uk-government-wants-to-expand-the-sugar-tax-to-milkshakes-and-plant-based-drinks-heres-what-you-need-to-know-255646

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: TikTok in Egypt: where rich and poor meet – and the state watches everything

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Gabriele Cosentino, Assistant Professor, American University in Cairo

    After being released from detention in 2011, Egyptian engineer and activist Wael Ghonim told the media:

    If you want to liberate a society, all you need is the internet.

    He’d been taken into custody for his role in the revolution that toppled the regime of Hosni Mubarak. Part of the success of this unprecedented popular uprising was due to the role of social media in mobilising citizens around a common political cause.

    In 2025, after a decade under the repressive government of Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, it’s fair to say that little has remained of Ghonim’s vision. Social media use in Egypt is closely guarded by the authorities to detect signs of opposition. Citizens are routinely detained, even for the slightest criticism of the government.

    In 2018 Egypt introduced a new law, apparently to curb the problem of online misinformation and disinformation. This law is, in reality, often used to stifle dissent. Egyptians today operate within unclear boundaries of what is permissible to say online. The result is widespread self-censorship for fear of arrest.

    As a scholar of political communication and new media I’ve written books on global social media. I teach students about the social and political impact of digital and social media in Egypt. The video sharing platform TikTok is a frequent subject in my classes because it reveals both the liberating and the repressive effects of social media use in Egypt.

    TikTok stands out for its ability to create viral videos and sudden micro-celebrities. This has made it a lightning rod for government crackdowns. But it has also connected people across socio-economic divides and bred a lively new cultural and political debate – one that’s not as easy for the government to police.

    TikTok in Egypt

    Since 2020, TikTok has become immensely popular in Egypt, with an estimated 33 million users over 18 years old.

    While TikTok hasn’t taken on the explicit political dimension that Facebook or Twitter did over a decade ago, it has already become the theatre of a series of incidents that have landed its users in the crosshairs of the authorities. This has exposed political rifts and tensions.

    Most of the incidents are related to the ability of TikTok to work as a “virality engine” – even users with few followers can gain a sudden and sometimes problematic celebrity.

    But while Egyptian authorities have evidently been cracking down on TikTok users, there have been no concrete plans to ban the platform. In fact, some government branches have used it to advance their own initiatives. The Ministry of Youth and Sports, for example, signed an agreement with TikTok to launch the Egyptian TikTok Creator Hub, designed to educate youth on using social media responsibly.

    Women targeted

    Since 2020, Egyptian authorities have arrested TikTok users under charges ranging from the violation of family values to the spread of false information and allegations of belonging to terrorist organisations. Most of these TikTokers didn’t post explicit sexual or political content, making the charges against them appear exaggerated. These cases suggest the authorities are closely monitoring the platform, following strict moral and political considerations.

    The most high profile cases have involved young women, most notably Haneen Hossam and Mawada Eladham, who were arrested in 2020 for violating family values. Article 25 of Egypt’s anti-cybercrime law states that content “violating the family principles and values upheld by Egyptian society may be punished by a minimum of six months’ imprisonment and/or a fine”. It leaves the definition of family values purposefully vague.

    Observers have noted that this vagueness has allowed the law to be applied in a range of different cases. More than a dozen women have faced similar charges, endured pretrial detention and been handed lengthy prison sentences.

    The arbitrary nature of many of the charges suggests a possible deeper motive: policing the presence of young women in digital spaces where they can gain influence and financial independence outside traditional family or work structures.

    TikTok has given ordinary users in Egypt unprecedented visibility, in some cases allowing them to challenge social norms, often through humour. This appears to have unsettled authorities, who appear to have sought to send a message to the broader population.

    Arrests

    TikTok-related arrests have not been limited to family values. In 2022, three users were arrested for criticising rising food prices. They were charged with spreading fake news, despite the fact that inflation in Egypt was rising sharply.

    In 2023, a parody skit of a fake jail visit by a TikToker went viral. The creators were arrested and charged with belonging to a terror organisation, spreading fake news and misusing social media.




    Read more:
    Why some governments fear even teens on TikTok


    Such arrests indicate that TikTok content that touches on politically sensitive matters, even in jest, is posing a new type of challenge for the Egyptian government. The state is particularly concerned with viral content that might bring attention to its poor human rights record. This includes notoriously bad conditions in jails.

    ‘Egypt’ and ‘Masr’

    At the same time, the platform is proving able to connect people from very different social and economic backgrounds, as it is seen to do globally.

    Egypt is very hierarchical. Small, affluent elite groups live in a separate and secluded socio-economic reality from the majority of the population. Thirty percent of Egyptians live under the poverty line.

    On TikTok, the more privileged, cosmopolitan section of society is referred to as “Egypt”. The poor and disenfranchised are “Masr” (مصر), the Arabic word for Egypt.

    TikTok is aimed at generating viral content more than it is a networking site, like Facebook, that’s based on pre-existing social connections. The result is a virtual common space where the two sides can interact in new ways. This engenders unique social and cultural dynamics also observed in other countries.




    Read more:
    TikTok in Kenya: the government wants to restrict it, but my study shows it can be useful and empowering


    “Egypt” watches “Masr” create all kinds of content – from singing and dancing routines to live begging. “Masr” gets to peek into the otherwise inaccessible world of the wealthy.

    In the current climate of an economic crisis, this divide can be glaring. While most Egyptians are struggling with inflation, the cost of living and unemployment, the wealthy flaunt their lifestyles on TikTok.

    When wealthy TikTokers post content complaining about relatively petty issues like a long wait for valet parking at a luxury restaurant or boast about their weekly allowance, it reveals their disconnect from the everyday hardships faced by the less privileged.

    Users are able to comment freely on each other’s videos, sharing their unvarnished opinions. A student boasting about their weekly allowance of 3,000 EGP (US$60) might be told, “This is some people’s monthly salary.”

    Political consequences

    Since it first appeared in 2020, TikTok in Egypt has evolved from a platform mainly geared towards silly and entertaining content by teenagers. It’s become an outlet for people of all ages interested in gathering information, keeping abreast of current trends and events, and also a space for political engagement, especially on the issue of Palestine.




    Read more:
    Young Nigerians are flocking to TikTok – why it’s a double-edged sword


    There hasn’t been an obvious politicisation of TikTok in Egypt yet and there might never be, given the strict policing by authorities. But TikTok’s ability to expose divisions in Egyptian society and connect citizens across demographic cleavages could potentially have unexpected political consequences in the near future.

    Shahd Atef contributed to the research for this article

    Gabriele Cosentino does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. TikTok in Egypt: where rich and poor meet – and the state watches everything – https://theconversation.com/tiktok-in-egypt-where-rich-and-poor-meet-and-the-state-watches-everything-253278

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Somalia’s exports are threatened by climate change and conflict: what 30 years of data tell us

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Mohamed Okash, Founding Director, Institute of Climate and Environment, Simad University

    In the sun-scorched lands of Somalia, farmers and livestock keepers have grown accustomed to the extremes of climate. In 2022, for example, the country suffered the longest drought in 40 years. This affected nearly half the national population of 18 million people. The following year, heavy and widespread flooding devastated the country’s farmlands and infrastructure.

    For a country whose economy breathes through its agriculture and livestock sectors, these extremes have adverse implications. Over 70% of the population relies on farming, herding and pastoral activities for their livelihoods. Despite these climatic shocks, agriculture contributes about 60% of Somalia’s GDP. This is down slightly from 65% two decades ago.

    The agricultural sector is diverse, yet fragile. It is made up of two primary components: crop cultivation (mainly sorghum, maize, sesame and fruit) and livestock rearing (camels, goats, sheep and cattle).

    Somalia’s strongest export offerings have included livestock and animal products, such as hides and skins, along with sesame seeds, bananas and charcoal.

    Livestock has been the cornerstone of exports for decades. It experienced strong growth from the early 2000s through the mid-2010s, but faced notable declines after 2017. This was a result of droughts, disease outbreaks and market disruptions. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Oman are among Somalia’s biggest trading partners.

    Apart from extremes of climate, the agricultural sector continues to be affected by political instability and conflict. Some of this conflict stems from disputes over water and land. These are common, particularly during times of drought, when competition for natural resources sparks conflict between settled and nomadic pastoralists.

    We are development researchers focused on the intersection of climatic vulnerability, conflict and economic resilience in fragile states. Our recent study set out to examine how the combined effects of climate change and conflict are shaping the country’s trade in agricultural and livestock products. We did this by analysing three decades (1985–2017). We analysed the long-term relationship between environmental stress, conflict events and the country’s export performance in key agricultural sectors.

    We found that erratic rainfall, rising temperatures and conflict have significantly constrained Somalia’s agricultural and livestock export performance over the past decade. While exports have not collapsed entirely, their growth trajectory has been repeatedly disrupted.

    Livestock exports, for instance, peaked in 2015–2016 at over US$530 million, but have since declined due to recurrent droughts, internal conflict and trade restrictions, including a partial import ban by Saudi Arabia in 2016.

    Our analysis confirms that a 1% rise in average temperature reduces agricultural exports by approximately 8.37%. Further, a single-unit increase in internal conflict correlates with a 0.13–0.16% drop in both livestock and crop exports in the long run.

    Although average rainfall boosts exports when available, its unpredictability creates volatility in both the short and long term. The study found that climatic shocks and ongoing conflict are deeply hurting Somalia’s agriculture and livestock exports.

    What the data says

    Our analysis, based on export figures, climate records and conflict datasets (including some from the World Bank), reveals a clear pattern: export performance rises with rainfall and declines with both rising temperatures and internal conflict.

    Banana and sorghum production have dropped by over 50% in some regions since the 1990s. Once a key export crop, bananas have nearly disappeared from Somalia’s export portfolio. Sesame remains a strong export, but yields are becoming more unpredictable.

    Heat stress, compounded by water scarcity, has reduced soil fertility and shortened growing seasons. Maize and groundnuts have been especially affected, with yields declining by up to 40% in recent drought years.

    Many of these crops were once sold in regional markets. They are now primarily consumed locally – or not grown at all.

    Overall, our research showed that Somalia’s competitiveness in global markets has weakened considerably. Livestock exports fell sharply during drought years, particularly 2011 and 2017.

    At the same time, Somalia has started importing basic food items such as maize and flour, which it used to grow domestically. This dependency is both economically and nutritionally dangerous.

    Falling production and exports

    Our analysis shows that internal conflict significantly reduces both agricultural and livestock exports in the long run. It does so by limiting market access and closing vital export corridors.

    This leads to a reliance on circuitous indirect trade routes through adjacent countries at the expense of the export economy. For example, livestock from southern Somalia can no longer reach key export ports due to insecurity.

    Violence over resources – especially water and land – frequently flares up in the central and northern rangelands between agro-pastoralists and nomadic herders. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, between 2012 and 2023, conflict alone forced more than 1.6 million people from their homes. In some of the worst years, like 2017 and 2021, over 400,000 people were displaced from their communities.

    The conflict has displaced rural populations. It has also fractured governance systems and access to international markets, making it harder for Somalia’s farmers and herders to survive.

    Extreme droughts and floods have had a severe impact on yields.

    When the rains are good, exports rise. But those rains are now unpredictable. Erratic precipitation patterns and higher temperatures have led to decreased crop yields and hampered livestock production. This is challenging the nation’s ability to sustain exports.

    What needs to be done

    In response to the challenges posed by climate change and conflicts over agricultural and livestock exports, Somalia needs strategic policy measures.

    First, Somalia should broaden the range of products it exports. Diversification reduces the country’s vulnerability to fluctuations in the market for specific goods. It also minimises risks associated with climate-related and conflict-induced disruptions, and enhances overall economic resilience.

    Second, the country must resolve internal conflicts which disrupt farming operations and displace rural communities.

    Third, the authorities should facilitate market access. Establishing export processing zones can help meet global quality standards. This would reduce the reliance on intermediaries and ensure that producers receive a fair share of profits.

    Finally, measures need to be taken to mitigate the impact of climate change on agriculture. The government needs to invest in climate-resilient farming systems, promoting sustainable agricultural practices and supporting farmers in adapting to changing climatic conditions. This adaptation should include:

    • irrigation systems to reduce dependence on erratic rainfall

    • drought-resistant and heat-tolerant crop varieties

    • research, skills building and extension services to support local communities

    • integrated pest management and sustainable land and soil management.

    For Somalia, investing in agricultural exports is not merely an economic imperative. It is a development challenge that demands a multifaceted approach encompassing climate resilience, institutional strengthening and inclusive economic growth.

    This research is funded by SIMAD University in Mogadishu, Somalia.

    This research is funded by SIMAD University in Mogadishu, Somalia.

    ref. Somalia’s exports are threatened by climate change and conflict: what 30 years of data tell us – https://theconversation.com/somalias-exports-are-threatened-by-climate-change-and-conflict-what-30-years-of-data-tell-us-254146

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Does free schooling give girls a better chance in life? Burundi study shows the poorest benefited most

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Frederik Wild, Postdoctoral Researcher, University of Heidelberg

    Teenage pregnancy rates remain high across many parts of the developing world: In Africa, on average, about one in ten girls between the ages of 15 and 19 has already given birth. These early pregnancies often come with serious consequences for young mothers and their children. They are linked to lower education levels, poorer health outcomes, and reduced economic opportunities.

    Scientists, development agencies and NGOs have long heralded education as a powerful tool to reduce early childbearing. Education may directly influence women’s reproductive behaviour, but it can also improve their employment and income-generating opportunities, leading them to postpone pregnancy.

    But does access to basic education for young girls result in such successes uniformly across population groups?




    Read more:
    Ghana’s free high school policy is getting more girls to complete secondary education – study


    We are economists who conducted a study to explore the effect of primary school education on fertility and its related outcomes in Burundi. A bold education reform took place in that country in 2005: the government abolished formal school fees for primary education. As a result, many children who had been excluded from school by cost were able to get a basic education.

    The free primary education policy displays a natural experiment for researchers interested in the effects of education. Because the reform applied only to children young enough to be in school, we could compare girls who were eligible for free schooling with those who were just too old to be eligible (but similar in other ways). This allowed us to track the policy’s direct and causal effects.

    Indeed, we see that Burundi’s free primary education policy increased educational attainment of women by 1.22 years on average. Our findings also provide new, robust evidence that education can reduce downstream effects, as we see teenage childbearing reducing by as much as 6.9 percentage points. In other words, while about 37% of teenage women who did not benefit from free primary education had given birth before the age of 20, only 30% of those eligible for free primary education had done so.

    Importantly, and new in our findings, education conferred the greatest benefit to girls from the poorest segment of society. Our study thereby underscores an important lesson for policymakers: education policies can be highly effective, but not necessarily for everyone in the same way.

    A natural experiment in Burundi

    We used nationally representative data from Burundi’s Demographic and Health Surveys to establish the effects of education. We compared women born between 1987 and 1991 to those born between 1992 and 1996 – aged 14-18 and 9-13 respectively when the free school policy took effect. We applied modern econometric techniques to identify the increase in years of schooling induced by the policy. We then examined the effect of this increase in schooling on girls’ outcomes, including teenage pregnancy, literacy, and the likelihood of working for cash income, among other outcomes.

    The results were striking. Girls who had been young enough to benefit from free schooling gained, on average, 1.22 more years of education thanks to the programme. That corresponds to a 34% increase in the years of education compared to similar women who missed out on the policy. Crucially, this increase occurred across the board – both poor and wealthier women gained more education.

    But there was a twist: only young women from poor backgrounds seemed to reap broader benefits from that extra schooling.




    Read more:
    Burundi at 60 is the poorest country on the planet: a look at what went wrong


    For girls from very low-income households, one additional year of schooling reduced the likelihood of becoming a teenage mother by nearly 7 percentage points.

    It also decreased their desired number of children and boosted their literacy and chances of working for a cash income outside their own home. These are all powerful indicators of women gaining autonomy and making more informed reproductive choices.

    While girls from wealthier households experienced an increase in education too, this additional schooling showed no measurable effect on fertility, literacy, or employment outcomes for them. Thus, we did not find any statistically significant impact of increased schooling for these girls.

    In other words, the free primary education programme in Burundi increased the number of years of education for girls in general but the downstream effects of that education appear to have materialised only for the very poor.

    Why does household wealth matter?

    Why would women from the relatively wealthier families not benefit equally from more education?

    One reason could be that somewhat wealthier households had already ensured higher levels of education for their daughters, even before school fees were abolished in Burundi. The education reform thus made less of a difference in their lives. Very poor families, on the other hand, were far more likely to be constrained by the costs of primary education. When that barrier was removed, their daughters could finally access schooling, and this had transformative effects also for sexual and reproductive health.




    Read more:
    Girls thrive with women teachers: a study in Francophone Africa


    For the most disadvantaged, education is more likely to open up new economic opportunities. We found that policy-induced education increased their likelihood of working outside of their own household for a cash income, which raises the opportunity cost of early childbearing. The classic economic theory by Nobel prize laureate Gary Becker and Jacob Mincer suggests that when women have better employment prospects, they are more likely to postpone childbirth. And they invest more in their children but tend to have fewer of them. This is precisely what we observed in our data.

    Education also seems to empower women by increasing their knowledge and capacity to access information. We found that literacy rates among poor women rose significantly with each added year of schooling. Another prominent theory in the literature on education is that educated women are more likely to understand and use contraception, make informed reproductive decisions, and challenge traditional gender norms.

    Rethinking one-size-fits-all policies

    Our study underscores an important lesson for policymakers: education policies can be highly effective, but not necessarily for everyone in the same way.

    When evaluating the success of reforms like free primary education, we must go beyond average effects. Aggregated data can mask substantial differences between population groups. If we had only looked at average outcomes, we might have concluded that free schooling had little effect on teenage childbearing. But by disaggregating our data by household wealth, we see a different and far more hopeful picture. Free schooling has powerful effects – if we know where to look.

    Frederik Wild received funding from the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation), EXC 2052/1 – 390713894 for the research paper referenced in the article. The views expressed in this article are solely my own and do not represent those of my employer or affiliated organizations.

    David Stadelmann received funding from Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation), EXC 2052/1 – 390713894.

    ref. Does free schooling give girls a better chance in life? Burundi study shows the poorest benefited most – https://theconversation.com/does-free-schooling-give-girls-a-better-chance-in-life-burundi-study-shows-the-poorest-benefited-most-253634

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Digital government can benefit citizens: how South Africa can reduce the risks and get it right

    Source: The Conversation – Africa – By Busani Ngcaweni, Visiting Adjunct Professor, Wits School of Governance, University of the Witwatersrand

    The digital revolution is reshaping governance worldwide. From the electronic filing of taxes to digital visa applications, technology is making government services more accessible, efficient and transparent.

    South Africa is making progress in its digital journey. In 2024 it climbed to 40th place out of 193 countries, from 65th place in 2022, in the United Nations e-Government Index. This improvement makes the country one of Africa’s digital leaders, surpassing Mauritius and Tunisia.

    South Africa has identified more than 255 government services for digitisation. Already, 134 are available on the National e-Government Portal. This achievement is remarkable. Nevertheless, the shift to digitisation comes with challenges and risks.

    Some countries have weakened the state’s role by rapidly outsourcing key government functions. But South Africa has the opportunity to build a model of digital transformation that strengthens public institutions rather than diminishes them.

    New technologies must bring tangible benefits for citizens. Digital transformation can improve public administration. But, if mismanaged, it could burden taxpayers with costs.

    Benefits

    Digital transformation comes at a cost. This is particularly true if the state fails to use its procurement power to negotiate reasonable prices. Infrastructure upgrades, cybersecurity measures, software licensing and system maintenance require substantial financial investment.

    The question is whether these expenses are a necessary step towards a more efficient and accessible government.

    Two South African examples illustrate that digital transformation can save money and enhance service delivery quality.

    The first is the South African Revenue Service. Its goal is to ensure that taxpayers and tax advisers can use the service from anywhere and at any time. The changes made more than a decade ago show that digital systems can yield substantial financial gains. After introducing e-filing in 2006, the revenue service streamlined tax processes, reduced inefficiencies and led to higher compliance rates. Ultimately this led to improved revenue collection.

    Similarly, digitising social grant payments has had a number of positive effects. In a chapter of a recent edited volume on public governance, my colleagues and I wrote a case study about how the South African Social Security Agency used basic technologies and platforms like WhatsApp and email to process a grant during the COVID pandemic. It allowed over 14 million people to apply, paid grants to over 6 million beneficiaries during the first phase of the project.

    South African Social Security Agency annual reports show that over 95% of grant beneficiaries receive their payouts electronically through debit cards, instead of going to cash points. This improves security and lets beneficiaries decide when to get and spend their money.

    There are fears that automation could result in massive job losses. But global experience has shown that digitalisation does not necessarily lead to large-scale retrenchments. Instead it can shift the nature of work to other responsibilities.

    The South African Social Security Agency provides a compelling case. Its transition to digital grant payments did not lead to job losses. Similarly, the expansion of e-filing at the revenue service has not resulted in workforce reductions. In both cases efficiencies improved.

    These cases highlight that digital transformation is reshaping roles rather than displacing employees. Public servants are moving into areas such as cybersecurity, data analysis and AI-driven decision-making.

    Shortcomings and pitfalls

    A number of inefficiencies are at play in government services.

    Firstly, most government digital operations still work with outdated paper-based systems. The lack of a uniform digital identity creates bureaucratic inefficiencies and delays.

    Secondly, fragmented procurement of equipment in government has led to duplicated efforts, increased costs and fruitless expenditure.

    Thirdly, different departments often use isolated and incompatible digital systems. This reduce the mutual benefits of digital transformation. The State IT Agency has been blamed for inefficiencies, procurement failures and questionable spending.

    Fourthly, South Africa’s public service remains fragmented. Citizens still struggle to access government services seamlessly. They often move between departments to complete what should be a single transaction.

    Without a centralised system, departments operate in isolation, duplicating efforts, increasing costs and eroding public trust.




    Read more:
    South Africa’s civil servants are missing skills, especially when it comes to technology – report


    Fifth, a lack of skills. Increasing reliance on digital tools requires expertise in data analytics, cloud computing and automation. Many public servants lack the training to take on these new roles. The National Digital and Future Skills Strategy was introduced in September 2020 to bridge this gap, but its effectiveness depends on its implementation.

    Introducing it in 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic forced government to make digital leaps which otherwise might have taken longer. To sustain services, technology had to be rapidly adopted, including basic things like holding Cabinet meetings online, using a system rapidly developed by the State Information Technology Agency.

    Sixth, security concerns complicate the transformation. As government systems become digital, they become vulnerable to cyberattacks. South Africa must put in place cybersecurity infrastructure to prevent identity theft, data breaches and service disruptions. A cyberattack on one department could affect the entire public sector.

    What needs to be done

    Government must streamline procurement, improve coordination and eliminate inefficiencies to ensure interdepartmental collaboration.

    A single, integrated e-government platform would:

    • cut red tape

    • reduce queues

    • increase efficiency.

    Government needs to upskill civil servants and improve their digital literacy.

    Government must create a seamless e-government system that connects services while protecting citizens’ personal information. The success of digitalisation depends on technological advancements as well as the level of trust citizens have in government systems. Without strong security measures, transparency and accountability, even the most sophisticated digital tools will fail to gain public confidence.

    South Africa has the chance to demonstrate that a strong, capable state can successfully integrate technology while safeguarding public interests. It should take full advantage of offers by Microsoft, Amazon and Huawei to support digital skills training in the public sector in a way that does not advantage one company’s technologies over others. Choices of technology must be user-centric, not based on preferences of accounting officers and chief information officers. Leaders of public institutions must be measured on their ability to digitally transform their organisations.

    Busani Ngcaweni is affiliated with the National School of Government, Wits and Johannesburg Universities.

    ref. Digital government can benefit citizens: how South Africa can reduce the risks and get it right – https://theconversation.com/digital-government-can-benefit-citizens-how-south-africa-can-reduce-the-risks-and-get-it-right-254089

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Digital clones of real models are revolutionizing fashion advertising

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Luana Carcano, Lecturer, Beedie School of Business, Simon Fraser University

    Driven by advances in artificial intelligence (AI) and metaverse technologies, digital clones are transforming fast-fashion marketing. Always available, ageless and adaptable to any setting, these virtual figures enable brands to create immersive, cost-effective campaigns that resonate with today’s digital-first consumers.




    Read more:
    Fake models for fast fashion? What AI clones mean for our jobs — and our identities


    Virtual influencers — digitally created personas used to provide entertainment, generate content and endorse brands — are becoming increasingly influential, especially among Gen Z and digital-first audiences.

    These virtual figures vary in form: some, like Lil Miquela and Shudu, are entirely computer-generated, while others, such as Hatsune Miku, incorporate human elements like voice or motion.

    Hybrid influencers blend real and virtual components, allowing for brand-specific customization. These virtual influencers boost brand visibility, drive engagement and influence market performance.

    Real persons, virtual personas

    The estimate for global influencer market size for 2024 was valued at over US$24 billion and is projected to grow to over US$32 billion in 2025. The rise of virtual influencers is particularly prominent in Asia.

    This trend is also reshaping the US$2.5 trillion modelling industry, according to The Business of Fashion. AI-generated avatars and digital clones enable brands to cut production costs and accelerate campaign development. As a result, companies such as Levi Strauss & Co. are partnering with AI modelling firms to integrate these virtual personas into their marketing strategies.

    Digital twins

    Digital twins — virtual replicas of real people — are gaining traction in marketing to enhance personalization, streamline content creation and deepen customer engagement.

    In the fashion world, they provide a means to maintain a sense of human connection while using AI for precision and volume purposes. Fast-fashion retailer H&M recently introduced AI-generated digital twins of real-life models for advertising and social media content. Positioned as a creative and operational aid rather than a replacement for human talent, the initiative has ignited industry-wide debate.




    Read more:
    AI clones made from user data pose uncanny risks


    While the brand highlights the advantages — lower production costs and faster catalogue development — some critics have raised ethical concerns regarding representation and transparency.

    These digital twins fall into the category of “front-of-camera” tools: static avatars used in visual content without independent personas or social media presence. Unlike virtual influencers, they do not interact with audiences or build followings. Instead, they function strictly as visual stand-ins for traditional models, who are compensated for the use of their likenesses, similar to conventional campaigns.

    As these avatars do not speak, endorse or engage directly with consumers, they remain subject to traditional advertising regulations — not influencer marketing laws.

    Digital models are used for operational efficiency: testing and refining creative strategies before rollout, reducing costs and potentially offering immersive digital experiences to enhance customer connection and brand loyalty.

    Authenticity and other challenges

    In July 2024, fast-fashion retailer Mango launched its first advertising campaign featuring AI-generated avatars to promote a limited-edition collection for teenaged girls.

    These AI-generated influencers and digital twins introduce numerous ethical and legal challenges. These innovations raise difficult questions about the displacement of human talent — including models, make-up artists, hairstylists and photographers — and broader implications for creative industries.

    Key concerns centre on consent and compensation. The unauthorized use of an individual’s likeness, even in digital form, poses a risk of exploitation and underscores the importance of clear standards and protections. The legal landscape regarding image rights and intellectual property is still evolving, which makes compliance both essential and complex.

    As the lines between reality and digital fabrication blur, brands risk eroding consumer trust. The authenticity that audiences value can be undermined if AI-generated content seems deceptive or inauthentic.

    Companies must tread carefully, balancing innovation with transparency.

    Diversity is another critical issue. While AI offers customization, it can also perpetuate biases or create an illusion of inclusivity without genuine representation.

    An Associated Press report on AI models and diversity.

    As the use of AI proliferates, ensuring that digital models support, rather than hinder, meaningful advancement in representation will be essential.

    Ultimately, brands must implement ethical frameworks to ensure that AI enhances creativity while maintaining integrity, inclusivity and legal accountability.

    Strategic considerations

    Digital clones provide fast-fashion brands with a powerful tool to create personalized shopping experiences and enable greater representation of diverse body types and style preferences. This degree of customization can significantly enhance customer satisfaction and brand loyalty.

    To ensure ethical integration, transparency is crucial. Brands must clearly disclose when digital models appear in campaigns. These digital representations should encompass a wide variety of demographics to genuinely promote inclusivity and engage with a broader audience.

    Establishing ethical and legal safeguards is equally important. Creating digital clones requires explicit consent and careful attention to intellectual property rights. Without clear guidelines and permissions, brands risk violating privacy, misusing likenesses and facing legal repercussions.

    Luana Carcano does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Digital clones of real models are revolutionizing fashion advertising – https://theconversation.com/digital-clones-of-real-models-are-revolutionizing-fashion-advertising-254244

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The King’s speech: The world will be watching when Charles opens Canada’s Parliament

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Justin Vovk, European Royal History Reseacher, McMaster University

    Prime Minister Mark Carney has invited King Charles to embark upon a Royal Visit to Canada and open the new session of Parliament on May 27.

    The visit comes at a significant moment in Canadian history. Carney has just had his first meeting with Donald Trump, pushing back unequivocally against the American president’s continuing calls for Canada to become the 51st state.

    In their Oval Office news conference, Trump once again declared his desire to erase “the artificially drawn line” separating the U.S. and Canada and to annex Canada, as Carney made clear that would never happen.




    Read more:
    Mark Carney tells Donald Trump ‘Canada is not for sale’ in a high-stakes Oval Office meeting


    At the same time, Trump has been looking to reshape the global economic order through the use of tariffs on imported goods. Even though Canadians are fighting back with consumer and travel boycotts, many are also worrying about the future due to Trump’s actions.

    Amid this turmoil, the King’s timely visit could be a powerful show of support for Canadians, whose identity has often wilted in the shadow of its powerful but formerly protective American neighbour. The presence of the King will undoubtedly generate global attention, which could provide reassurances to Canadians that they’re not alone.

    Delivering the Speech from the Throne

    Charles is King of Canada and the country’s official head of state. This will be his 20th trip to Canada, but his first since becoming King in September 2022.

    In day-to-day government business, his duties are carried out by the Governor General. These include opening Parliament and delivering the Speech from the Throne, which outlines the government’s agenda.

    The King’s visit will mark the first time the sovereign has personally delivered the Speech from the Throne since Queen Elizabeth did so in 1957. She also opened a session of Canada’s 30th Parliament in 1977.

    Canada has maintained close ties with the United Kingdom. It still uses the Westminster parliamentary system. But Canada has also worked to establish its own national identity.

    In 1982, Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau repatriated Canada’s Constitution. This replaced the British North America Act and established Canada’s full political independence, a process that began with Confederation in 1867.

    Signals of support to Canada

    Royal Visits are one of the monarchy’s most effective tools for promoting international relations. In Charles’s recent visit to Italy, he even made a point of honouring Canada.

    This upcoming visit is expected to highlight Canada’s identity separate from the United States. It will give Charles the opportunity to remind everyone of the Crown’s place at the heart of Canadian sovereignty and our constitutional relationship with monarchy. This is an image that Charles has been eager to foster since becoming King in 2022 following the death of his mother and amid waning enthusiasm for the monarchy in some Commonwealth countries.

    The King cannot make political statements — at least, not without the say-so of the prime minister. After meeting with Justin Trudeau in March before he was replaced by Carney as prime minister, Charles signalled his support for Canadian sovereignty through a series of subtle but important gestures.




    Read more:
    How King Charles is sending Canada subtle signals of support amid Trump’s threats


    He presented a ceremonial sword to the Usher of the Black Rod — one of the Canadian Senate’s senior ceremonial officers. A week later, Charles planted a red maple at Buckingham Palace to commemorate the late Queen Elizabeth’s support for international forestry. He even wore Canadian military insignia on his admiral’s uniform during a public inspection of a British aircraft carrier.

    Commonwealth ties

    The King’s visit could also reinvigorate Canada’s ties to the Commonwealth.

    Canada has long maintained positive relations with the other Commonwealth countries through shared culture, military action and economic support. This Royal Visit could solidify the beneficial role of the Crown and of the Commonwealth for Canada as it seeks to assert its sovereignty and broaden its international economic ties in the face of American tariffs.

    Many in Canada and around the world will be watching and listening to the King’s speech when he opens Parliament on May 27.




    Read more:
    King Charles’s coronation: Can the British monarchy shed its imperial past?


    It is unlikely there will be any direct references to Trump’s 51st state threats or to the president himself. But its symbolic significance could reaffirm Canada’s place on the world stage. It may also help to quell, at least for a little while, the growing calls to reconsider the need for the British monarchy at all in modern-day Canada.

    Justin Vovk has previously received funding from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada. Justin is currently on the advisory board of the Institute for the Study of the Crown in Canada.

    ref. The King’s speech: The world will be watching when Charles opens Canada’s Parliament – https://theconversation.com/the-kings-speech-the-world-will-be-watching-when-charles-opens-canadas-parliament-255852

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The MMR vaccine doesn’t contain ‘aborted fetus debris’, as RFK Jr has claimed. Here’s the science

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Hassan Vally, Associate Professor, Epidemiology, Deakin University

    Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the United States’ top public health official, recently claimed some religious groups avoid the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine because it contains “aborted fetus debris” and “DNA particles”.

    The US is facing its worst measles outbreaks in years with nearly 900 cases across the country and active outbreaks in several states.

    At the same time, Kennedy, secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services, continues to erode trust in vaccines.

    So what can we make of his latest claims?

    There’s no fetal debris in the MMR vaccine

    Kennedy said “aborted fetus debris” in MMR vaccines is the reason many religious people refuse vaccination. He referred specifically to the Mennonites in Texas, a deeply religious community, who have been among the hardest hit by the current measles outbreaks.

    Many vaccines work by using a small amount of an attenuated (weakened) form of a virus, or in the case of the MMR vaccine, attenuated forms of the viruses that cause measles, mumps and rubella. This gives the immune system a safe opportunity to learn how to recognise and respond to these viruses.

    As a result, if a person is later exposed to the actual infection, their immune system can react swiftly and effectively, preventing serious illness.

    Kennedy’s claim about fetal debris specifically refers to the rubella component of the MMR vaccine. The rubella virus is generally grown in a human cell line known as WI-38, which was originally derived from lung tissue of a single elective abortion in the 1960s. This cell line has been used for decades, and no new fetal tissue has been used since.

    Certain vaccines for other diseases, such as chickenpox, hepatitis A and rabies, have also been made by growing the viruses in fetal cells.

    These cells are used not because of their origin, but because they provide a stable, safe and reliable environment for growing the attenuated virus. They serve only as a growth medium for the virus and they are not part of the final product.

    You might think of the cells as virus-producing factories. Once the virus is grown, it’s extracted and purified as part of a rigorous process to meet strict safety and quality standards. What remains in the final vaccine is the virus itself and stabilising agents, but not human cells, nor fetal tissue.

    So claims about “fetal debris” in the vaccine are false.

    It’s also worth noting the world’s major religions permit the use of vaccines developed from cells originally derived from fetal tissue when there are no alternative products available.

    Are there fragments of DNA in the MMR vaccine?

    Kennedy claimed the Mennonites’ reluctance to vaccinate stems from “religious objections” to what he described as “a lot of aborted fetus debris and DNA particles” in the MMR vaccine.

    The latter claim, about the vaccine containing DNA particles, is technically true. Trace amounts of DNA fragments from the human cell lines used to produce the rubella component of the MMR vaccine may remain even after purification.

    However, with this claim, there’s an implication these fragments pose a health risk. This is false.

    Any DNA that may be present in this vaccine exists in extremely small amounts, is highly fragmented and degraded, and is biologically inert – that is, it cannot cause harm.

    Even if, hypothetically, intact DNA were present in the vaccine (which it’s not), it would not have the capacity to cause harm. One common (but unfounded) concern is that foreign DNA could integrate with a person’s own DNA, and alter their genome.

    Introducing DNA into human cells in a way that leads to integration is very difficult. Even when scientists are deliberately trying to do this, for example, in gene therapy, it requires precise tools, special viral delivery systems and controlled conditions.

    It’s also important to remember our bodies are exposed to foreign DNA constantly, through food, bacteria and even our own microbiome. Our immune system routinely digests and disposes of this material without incorporating it into our genome.

    This question has been extensively studied over decades. Multiple health authorities, including Australia’s Therapeutic Goods Administration, have addressed the misinformation regarding perceived harm from residual DNA in vaccines.

    Ultimately, the idea that fragmented DNA in a vaccine could cause genetic harm is false.

    The bottom line

    Despite what Kennedy would have you believe, there’s no fetal debris in the MMR vaccine, and the trace amounts of DNA fragments that may remain pose no health risk.

    What the evidence does show, however, is that vaccines like the MMR vaccine offer excellent protection against deadly and preventable diseases, and have saved millions of lives around the world.

    Hassan Vally does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The MMR vaccine doesn’t contain ‘aborted fetus debris’, as RFK Jr has claimed. Here’s the science – https://theconversation.com/the-mmr-vaccine-doesnt-contain-aborted-fetus-debris-as-rfk-jr-has-claimed-heres-the-science-255718

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Indonesia’s ‘thousand friends, zero enemies’ approach sees President Subianto courting China and US

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Gilang Kembara, Research Fellow, Nanyang Technological University

    Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto participates in a panel discussion in Antalya, Turkey, on April 11, 2025. Photo by Ahmet Serdar Eser/Anadolu via Getty Images

    For much of April and into May, a team of negotiators from Indonesia have been in Washington to discuss trading relations between the world’s largest economy and another forecast to be in the Top 5 within a generation.

    The Southeast Asian nation was among those hit hard by the across-the-board tariffs announced on April 2, 2025, by President Donald Trump, with a proposed 32% levy on its exports to the U.S. Trump subsequently backpedaled, putting in place a 90-day pause on any additional tariffs beyond a new 10% minimum.

    So far, Indonesia – whose-second largest export market is the United States – has signaled its intent to negotiate rather than respond with countermeasures like some other countries targeted by Trump, such as China and Canada.

    Indonesia may even offer to relax protectionist policies aimed at boosting domestic manufactures as a concession. “People who have known me for a long time would say I’m the most nationalist person … but we have to be realistic,” said President Prabowo Subianto.

    The issue of Trump’s tariff policy is a major early test for Subianto, a right-wing populist whose worldview was shaped by decades of military experience. He views Indonesia and its place in the broader world through a lens of realist power politics – wanting to ensure Indonesia possesses adequate hard military power and robust economic performance.

    Through pushing both, Subianto hopes to ensure that Indonesia is not easily swayed by foreign influence and can avoid domestic discontent due to any economic malaise. His approach to ruling the nation of over 280 million people is driven by a desire to retain friendly relations with the United States and China, retaining close economic and security cooperation with both.

    U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Indonesian Foreign Minister Sugiono at the State Department in Washington, D.C., on April 16, 2025.
    Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

    Good neighbors, multilateral expansion

    Since declaring independence from the Netherlands almost 80 years ago, Indonesia’s foreign policy has been tied to a doctrine of “Bebas dan Aktif,” or “Free and Active.”

    Formulated by the country’s first president, Sukarno, at the onset of the Cold War, the policy intended to keep the country officially nonaligned from any major power bloc. While moving much closer to the West and the U.S. during the subsequent longtime authoritarian presidency of Suharto, Jakarta retained its official independent position in foreign policy.

    Subianto served in the military during the reign of Suharto, who was also at one point his father-in-law.

    As Indonesia’s leader, Subianto has pledged to enact a so-called foreign policy philosophy of “zero enemies, one thousand friends.” That approach stems from two main considerations. First, he seeks to secure economic agreements that will help fulfill his promise of 8% annual economic growth. Second, he aims to strengthen defense procurement and security cooperation to bolster Indonesia’s military position.

    Toward multilateralism

    As a part of his vision, Subianto has attempted to reframe some of the considerations that have long guided Jakarta’s foreign policy strategy.

    For decades, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, has served as Indonesia’s collective security buffer, forming a crucial component of its “Mandala” – or concentric circles – foreign policy perspective. However, the current administration has thus far appeared indifferent to using the regional body as a source of projecting power, as underscored by Indonesia’s absence from the ASEAN informal consultations on conflict-ridden Myanmar in December 2024.

    That is just one of several indications that Subianto is attempting to shift Indonesia’s role from a regional actor to an active global player.

    A crucial development in that more assertive approach came with the country’s accession in January 2025 to the BRICS groups of nations, the first time a Southeast Asian nation has been admitted.

    In a further bid to multilateral engagement, Indonesia has initiated plans to pursue membership in two transnational economic groupings: the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

    Much of this inclination toward multilateral engagement is rooted in Subianto’s worldview that can be summed up as this: “If you’re not at the table, you’re likely to end up on the menu.”

    The crucial China and US relationships

    And yet, despite Subianto’s broader multilateral ambitions, it is the U.S. and China that remain the critical relationships.

    During the early weeks of his presidency, Subianto made China his first overseas bilateral visit. It resulted in agreements between China and Indonesia worth up to US$10 billion, primarily focused on green energy and technology.

    The visit, which was especially notable given that Jakarta appeared to move closer to China’s position on conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea can be seen as part of a broader shift toward Beijing.

    China’s massive population already serves as a lucrative export destination for Indonesian goods. Since 2016, China has been Indonesia’s biggest export market, beating out Japan and the U.S.

    That shift is likely to pick up pace in light of Trump’s tariffs, with Jakarta seeking to offset the increasing cost of American trade. And though Jakarta has signaled neutrality regarding the wider U.S.-Chinese dispute, officials in Jakarta and Beijing agreed in mid-April to boost mutual defense cooperation in the South China Sea.

    At the same time, the U.S. holds a particularly important place in Subianto’s mind. As a young soldier, Subianto spent time at military bases in the U.S., where he underwent special forces and counterterrorism training.

    He was later subjected to a travel ban from the U.S. from 2000 to 2020 on account of myriad allegations of human rights abuses related to his time in Indonesia’s special forces unit, Kopassus, which led to his being forcibly discharged from the Indonesian military in 1998.

    Yet the ban was rescinded after then-President Joko Widodo appointed Subianto to be Indonesia’s defense minister, and he was subsequently invited to Washington in 2020 during the first Trump administration.

    Washington was Subianto’s second official presidential visit destination in November 2024. During his trip, Subianto met with President Joe Biden to discuss Indonesia-U.S. bilateral relations, regional security issues and various other global matters. Subianto also had a brief phone call with President-elect Trump to congratulate him on his election victory.

    That relationship with Trump is likely to be a crucial one now, especially given the stakes of the mutual trading relationship.

    The U.S. is Indonesia’s second-biggest trading partner, after China. The value of trade between the two parties amounted to about $38.3 billion in 2024, with Indonesia exporting $28.1 billion to the U.S. while importing $10.2 billion. Seeking to avoid tariffs of 32%, an Indonesian trade delegation has been negotiating with Trump administration officials, signaling its intent to buy more American goods, make trade concessions and even lower local content requirements on Indonesian-made goods to allow more American-made components.

    Promoting pragmatism

    There are, of course, ongoing differences between Indonesia and the U.S. – not only the ongoing trade issue but also other areas, including the Israel-Hamas war. Indonesia, the largest majority Muslim country in the world, has been a staunch supporter of Palestinian rights and highly critical of Israeli policy.

    Yet even here, Subianto seemingly is open to pragmatism, with reports that the Indonesian government is floating the idea of normalizing ties with Israel in a bid to ease entry into the OECD.

    In a similar vein, one can expect that Subianto will opt for pragmatism in his dealings with Trump, prioritizing Indonesia’s security and defense cooperation with Washington, while sidestepping any issues that might divide them along the way.

    Under Subianto, Indonesia is embarking on a foreign policy that stresses the importance of maintaining robust and active bilateral ties with the U.S. At the same time, it is strengthening its China relationship. And away from both, it is asserting its own independence through bolstering its position in numerous multilateral bodies.

    How Subianto handles those various dynamics is likely to be a defining issue of his presidency.

    Gilang Kembara does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Indonesia’s ‘thousand friends, zero enemies’ approach sees President Subianto courting China and US – https://theconversation.com/indonesias-thousand-friends-zero-enemies-approach-sees-president-subianto-courting-china-and-us-252219

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: North Korean spy drama in China may signal Beijing’s unease over growing Pyongyang-Moscow ties

    Source: The Conversation – Global Perspectives – By Linggong Kong, Ph.D. Candidate in Political Science, Auburn University

    Chinese authorities in the northeastern city of Shenyang reportedly arrested a North Korean IT specialist in late April 2025, accusing him of stealing drone technology secrets.

    The suspect, apparently linked to North Korea’s main missile development agency, was part of a wider network operating in China, according to the story, which first appeared in South Korea’s Yonhap News Agency. In response, Pyongyang was said to have recalled IT personnel in China.

    The story was later circulated by several Chinese online outlets. Given the tight censorship in China, this implies a degree of tacit editorial approval from Beijing – although some sites later deleted the story. In a response to Yonhap over the alleged incident, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson noted that North Korea and China were “friendly neighbors” that maintained “normal” personnel exchanges, without denying the details.

    The incident suggests a rare semipublic spat between the two neighboring communist countries, contradicting the image of China and North Korea as “brothers in arms.”

    As a scholar of Northeast Asian security, I see the arrest – which has gotten little attention in English-language media – as representative of a wider, more nuanced picture of the two countries’ current relations. There are signs that Beijing is growing frustrated with Pyongyang – not least over North Korea’s increasing closeness with Moscow. Such a development challenges China’s traditional role as North Korea’s primary patron.

    In short, the arrest could be a symptom of worsening ties between the two countries.

    Beijing’s dilemma over North Korea

    North Korea has long been seen by Beijing as both a strategic security buffer and within its natural sphere of influence.

    From China’s perspective, allowing a hostile force to gain control of the peninsula – and especially the north – could open the door to future military threats. This fear partly explained why China intervened during the Korean War of 1950-1953.

    Beyond security, North Korea also serves as an ideological ally. Both countries are run by communist parties — the Chinese Communist Party and the Workers’ Party of Korea — although the former operates as a Leninist party-state system with a partial embrace of market capitalism, while the latter remains a rigid socialist state characterized by a strong personality cult.

    Chinese President Xi Jinping holds a welcoming ceremony for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Beijing on Jan. 8, 2019.
    Xinhua/Li Xueren via Getty Images

    Even today, Chinese state media continues to highlight the bonds of “comradeship” with Pyongyang.

    However, Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions have long troubled Beijing. North Korea has conducted multiple nuclear tests since 2006 and is now believed to possess nuclear weapons capable of targeting South Korea, Japan and U.S. bases in the region.

    China supports a denuclearized and stable Korean peninsula – both for regional peace and economic growth. Like the U.S., Japan and South Korea, China opposes nuclear proliferation, fearing North Korea’s periodic tests could provoke U.S. military action or trigger an arms race in the region.

    Meanwhile, Washington and its allies continue to pressure Beijing to do more to rein in a neighbor it often views as a vassal state of China.

    Given China’s economic ties with the U.S. and Washington’s East Asian allies – mainly South Korea and Japan – it has every reason to avoid further instability from Pyongyang.

    Yet to North Korea’s isolationist rulers, nuclear weapons are vital for the regime’s survival and independence. What’s more, nuclear weapons can also limit Beijing’s influence.

    North Korean leader Kim Jong Un worries that without nuclear leverage, China could try to interfere in the internal affairs of his country. After the death if Kim’s father, Kim Jong Il, in 2011, Beijing was thought to favor Kim Jong Un’s elder half-brother Kim Jong Nam as successor — possibly prompting Kim Jong Un to have him assassinated in 2017.

    But despite ongoing tensions over the nuclear issue, China has continued to support the North Korean regime for strategic reasons.

    For decades, China has been Pyongyang’s top trading partner, providing crucial economic aid. In 2023, China accounted for about 98% of North Korea’s official trade and continued to supply food and fuel to keep the regime afloat.

    Pyongyang pals up with Putin

    Yet over the past few years, more of North Korea’s imports, notably oil, have come from another source: Russia.

    North Korea and Russia had been close allies during the Cold War, but ties cooled after the Soviet Union collapsed in the early 1990s.

    More recently, a shared hostility toward the U.S. and the West in general has brought the two nations closer.

    Moscow’s international isolation following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and its deteriorating ties with South Korea in particular have pushed it toward Pyongyang. North Korea has reportedly supplied large quantities of ammunition to Russia, becoming a critical munitions supplier in the Ukraine war.

    Though both governments deny the arms trade – banned under United Nations sanctions – North Korea is thought to have received fuel, food and access to Russian military and space technology in return. On March 8, 2025, North Korea unveiled a nuclear-powered submarine that experts believe may involve Russian technological assistance.

    By 2024, Russian forces were using around 10,000 shells per day in Ukraine, with half sourced from North Korea. Some front-line units were reportedly using North Korean ammunition for up to 60% of their firepower.

    High-level visits have also increased. In July 2023, Russia’s defense minister, Andrey Belousov, visited Pyongyang for the 70th anniversary of the Korean War armistice, followed by Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia in September for a summit with President Vladimir Putin.

    Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un share a toast during a reception in Pyongyang on June 19, 2024.
    Vladmir Smirnov/AFP via Getty Images

    In June 2024, Putin visited Pyongyang, where the two countries signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation agreement, including a pledge that each would come to the other’s aid if attacked.

    Soon after, North Korea began sending troops to support Russia. Intelligence from the U.S., South Korea and Ukraine indicates that Pyongyang deployed 10,000 to 12,000 soldiers in late 2023, marking its first involvement in a major conflict since the Korean War. North Korean soldiers reportedly receive at least US$2,000 per month plus a bonus. For Pyongyang, this move not only provides financial gain but also combat experience should war ever reignite on the Korean Peninsula.

    Why China is worried

    China, too, has remained on friendly terms with Russia since the war in Ukraine began. So why would it feel uneasy about the growing closeness between Pyongyang and Moscow?

    For starters, China views Pyongyang’s outreach to Moscow as a challenge to its traditional role as North Korea’s main patron. While still dependent on Chinese aid, North Korea appears to be seeking greater autonomy.

    The strengthening of Russia–North Korea ties also fuels Western fears of an “axis of upheaval” involving all three countries.

    Unlike North Korea’s confrontational stance toward the West and its neighbor to the south, Beijing has offered limited support to Moscow during the Ukraine war and is cautious not to appear part of a trilateral alliance.

    Behind this strategy is a desire on behalf of China to maintain stable relations with the U.S., Europe and key Asian neighbors like Japan and South Korea. Doing so may be the best way for Beijing to protect its economic and diplomatic interests.

    China is also concerned that with Russian support in nuclear and missile technologies, Pyongyang may act more provocatively — through renewed nuclear tests or military clashes with South Korea. And this would only destabilize the region and strain China’s ties with the West.

    A defiant and provocative Pyongyang

    The timing of the alleged spy drama may offer further clues regarding the state of relations.

    It came [just a day after] North Korea officially confirmed it had deployed troops to aid the Russian war effort. It also announced plans to erect a monument in Pyongyang honoring its soldiers who died in the Ukraine war.

    The last spy case like this was in June 2016 when Chinese authorities arrested a North Korean citizen in the border city of Dandong. It reportedly followed Pyongyang informing China that it would permanently pursue its nuclear weapons program.

    The China-North Korea relationship deteriorated further when North Korea successfully tested a hydrogen bomb in September 2016, prompting Beijing to back U.N. Security Council sanctions against Pyongyang.

    Again, this time North Korea shows little sign of bending to China’s will.
    On April 30, Kim oversaw missile launches from North Korea’s first 5,000-ton destroyer, touted as its most heavily armed warship.

    None of which will help ease Beijing’s concerns. While China still sees Pyongyang as a critical buffer against U.S. influence in Northeast Asia, an increasingly provocative North Korea, fueled by a growing relationship with Russia, is starting to look less like a strategic asset — and more like a liability.

    Linggong Kong does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. North Korean spy drama in China may signal Beijing’s unease over growing Pyongyang-Moscow ties – https://theconversation.com/north-korean-spy-drama-in-china-may-signal-beijings-unease-over-growing-pyongyang-moscow-ties-255698

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: AI isn’t replacing student writing – but it is reshaping it

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jeanne Beatrix Law, Professor of English, Kennesaw State University

    Studies have shown that many students are using AI to brainstorm, learn new information and revise their work. krisanapong detraphiphat/Moment via Getty Images

    I’m a writing professor who sees artificial intelligence as more of an opportunity for students, rather than a threat.

    That sets me apart from some of my colleagues, who fear that AI is accelerating a glut of superficial content, impeding critical thinking and hindering creative expression. They worry that students are simply using it out of sheer laziness or, worse, to cheat.

    Perhaps that’s why so many students are afraid to admit that they use ChatGPT.

    In The New Yorker magazine, historian D. Graham Burnett recounts asking his undergraduate and graduate students at Princeton whether they’d ever used ChatGPT. No one raised their hand.

    “It’s not that they’re dishonest,” he writes. “It’s that they’re paralyzed.”

    Students seem to have internalized the belief that using AI for their coursework is somehow wrong. Yet, whether my colleagues like it or not, most college students are using it.

    A February 2025 report from the Higher Education Policy Institute in the U.K. found that 92% of university students are using AI in some form. As early as August 2023 – a mere nine months after ChatGPT’s public release – more than half of first-year students at Kennesaw State University, the public research institution where I teach, reported that they believed that AI is the future of writing.

    It’s clear that students aren’t going to magically stop using AI. So I think it’s important to point out some ways in which AI can actually be a useful tool that enhances, rather than hampers, the writing process.

    Helping with the busywork

    A February 2025 OpenAI report on ChatGPT use among college-aged users found that more than one-quarter of their ChatGPT conversations were education-related.

    The report also revealed that the top five uses for students were writing-centered: starting papers and projects (49%); summarizing long texts (48%); brainstorming creative projects (45%); exploring new topics (44%); and revising writing (44%).

    These figures challenge the assumption that students use AI merely to cheat or write entire papers.

    Instead, it suggests they are leveraging AI to free up more time to engage in deeper processes and metacognitive behaviors – deliberately organizing ideas, honing arguments and refining style.

    If AI allows students to automate routine cognitive tasks – like information retrieval or ensuring that verb tenses are consistent – it doesn’t mean they’re thinking less. It means their thinking is changing.

    Of course, students can misuse AI if they use the technology passively, reflexively accepting its outputs and ideas. And overreliance on ChatGPT can erode a student’s unique voice or style.

    However, as long as students learn how to use AI intentionally, this shift can be seen as an opportunity, rather than a loss,

    Clarifying the creative vision

    It has also become clear that AI, when used responsibly, can augment human creativity.

    For example, science comedy writer Sarah Rose Siskind recently gave a talk to Harvard students about her creative process. She spoke about how she uses ChatGPT to brainstorm joke setups and explore various comedic scenarios, which allows her to focus on crafting punchlines and refining her comedic timing.

    Note how Siskin used AI in ways that didn’t supplant the human touch. Instead of replacing her creativity, AI amplified it by providing structured and consistent feedback, giving her more time to polish her jokes.

    Another example is the Rhetorical Prompting Method, which I developed alongside fellow Kennesaw State University researchers. Designed for university students and adult learners, it’s a framework for conversing with an AI chatbot, one that emphasizes the importance of agency in guiding AI outputs.

    When writers use precise language to prompt, critical thinking to reflect, and intentional revision to sculpt inputs and outputs, they direct AI to help them generate content that aligns with their vision.

    There’s still a process

    The Rhetorical Prompting Method mirrors best practices in process writing, which encourages writers to revisit, refine and revise their drafts.

    When using ChatGPT, though, it’s all about thoughtfully revisiting and revising prompts and outputs.

    For instance, say a student wants to create a compelling PSA for social media to encourage campus composting. She considers her audience. She prompts ChatGPT to draft a short, upbeat message in under 50 words that’s geared to college students.

    Reading the first output, she notices it lacks urgency. So she revises the prompt to emphasize immediate impact. She also adds some additional specifics that are important to her message, such as the location of an information session. The final PSA reads:

    “Every scrap counts! Join campus composting today at the Commons. Your leftovers aren’t trash – they’re tomorrow’s gardens. Help our university bloom brighter, one compost bin at a time.”

    The Rhetorical Prompting Method isn’t groundbreaking; it’s riffing on a process that’s been tested in the writing studies discipline for decades. But I’ve found that it works by directing writers how to intentionally prompt.

    I know this because we asked users about their experiences. In an ongoing study, my colleagues and I polled 133 people who used the Rhetorical Prompting Method for their academic and professional writing:

    • 92% reported that it helped them evaluate writing choices before and during their process.

    • 75% said that they were able to maintain their authentic voice while using AI assistance.

    • 89% responded that it helped them think critically about their writing.

    The data suggests that learners take their writing seriously. Their responses reveal that they are thinking carefully about their writing styles and strategies. While this data is preliminary, we continue to gather responses in different courses, disciplines and learning environments.

    All of this is to say that, while there are divergent points of view over when and where it’s appropriate to use AI, students are certainly using it. And being provided with a framework can help them think more deeply about their writing.

    AI, then, is not just a tool that’s useful for trivial tasks. It can be an asset for creativity. If today’s students – who are actively using AI to write, revise and explore ideas – see AI as a writing partner, I think it’s a good idea for professors to start thinking about helping them learn the best ways to work with it.

    Jeanne Beatrix Law does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. AI isn’t replacing student writing – but it is reshaping it – https://theconversation.com/ai-isnt-replacing-student-writing-but-it-is-reshaping-it-254878

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How to manage financial stress in uncertain times

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Jeffrey Anvari-Clark, Assistant Professor of Social Work, University of North Dakota

    Having an action plan for personal finance is critical in uncertain times. Photo by Nicolas Guyonnet/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

    American families are struggling to keep up with their bills.

    The cost of food soared by more than 23% from 2020 to 2024. Other price increases, which are especially steep for vehicles, insurance, child care and housing, come as nearly 40% more people are behind on their credit card payments than in 2022.

    Now, uncertainty arising from zigzagging tariffs, firing of tens of thousands of federal workers and contractors, and massive cuts and freezes to federally funded programs means that more people are increasingly pessimistic about the economy.

    As an assistant professor of social work, I have found through my research that differences in how people experience, behave toward and feel about their personal finances have as much of an impact as do their age and gender on certain financial decisions. And those decisions, in turn, can affect their income and wealth moving forward.

    Improving your ‘financial efficacy’

    Scholars like me use the term “financial efficacy” when we’re assessing whether someone has personal finance know-how and the ability to put it to good use. People with a high level of financial efficacy can be more able to weather bouts of financial hardship and build wealth.

    Although everyone’s situation is unique and individual resources vary, there are still five broad areas that personal finance experts say are linked to good financial outcomes: emotional regulation, problem-solving skills, an ability to achieve goals, self-confidence and risk management.

    1. Being calm and carrying on

    Remaining calm in the face of a potential – or real – financial crisis tends to make it easier to think through important decisions. In contrast, reacting out of fear often leads to mistakes or quick fixes with costly long-term consequences. For example, rushing to fix a problem could lead you to take out a pay-day loan with high interest rates and fees.

    That’s why you should avoid making big financial decisions in a hurry.

    Waiting until you feel calm, perhaps giving yourself 24 hours to think it over, can protect you from making a bad situation worse. But don’t wait too long – procrastination can lead to late fees and compound your problems.

    Keeping your emotions under control depends on having healthy coping mechanisms for stressful situations. And having healthy habits helps to manage that stress.

    Consult an expert if you’re not sure how to tackle a financial challenge.
    Photo by Jeff Gritchen/Digital First Media/Orange County Register via Getty Images

    2. Problem solving with some creativity

    Solving financial problems is an exercise in improvisation. This includes finding creative ways to increase your income through a new job or side hustles and to reduce your expenses. Or look for solutions that will buy you more time, such as negotiating a repayment plan for an outstanding bill.

    This perseverance and resourcefulness often requires relying on skills you’ve used in the past. And it may help if you seek advice from people who you know have made good financial choices before.

    When in doubt about how to solve a financial problem, go see a financial counselor or social worker who can help assess your situation and identify the next steps. But be wary of the so-called finfluencers – short for financial influencers – who are active on social media. Instead, learn from the experts who focus on consumer protection and unbiased education.

    3. Setting goals and keeping track of them

    Achieving goals can be a short-term activity, like solving an immediate problem, or a longer-term process. It means keeping a clear outcome in mind and being able to tell when you’ve met a goal. More complex goals may need to be broken down into multiple milestones to stay on track.

    Whenever you’re in deep financial trouble, try to closely monitor your income and expenses. Adapt your budget according to what’s important to you. This will increase your sense of control over the situation.

    Tally up all your debt, including from credit cards, autos, student loans, medical or utility bills, and home mortgages. Figure out what you owe and to whom, and put together a plan to repay them. And if this feels overwhelming, that’s OK: A credit counseling nonprofit can help walk you through the process.

    Listing all your debt on paper or in a spreadsheet helps reduce anxiety and fear of the unknown. Having the plan helps you see a real way toward a financially stronger future. Then, take action and start paying them down.

    One possibility is to ask creditors for an extension or modified repayment schedule for a mortgage or car loan. Communicating with them up front shows them you are taking responsibility, and they will be more likely to work with you.

    Americans now owe an average of $6,455 in credit card debt. Paying in full during the grace period instead of later, with interest, can result in a substantial difference in what you owe.

    You never know when extra savings will come in handy.
    Faga Almeida/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    4. Gaining more self-confidence through practice

    It’s always easier to be confident that you can achieve something if you’ve done it before. This is how confidence builds on itself.

    But what if you’re in a new situation? It can help reflecting back on your personal history, realizing that you’ve met challenges in the past, and being reasonably assured that you can do it again. Such confidence then helps you keep calm, think through some solutions and see that you can achieve your goals.

    Improving your money management confidence and skills can reduce your anxiety and stress in the moment. It can show you those areas of your financial life that are within your control and illumine the way forward to a healthier financial future.

    5. Planning ahead reduces your risks

    Even if your finances are OK today, I would advise you to plan ahead. It’s important to identify your own informal safety nets before you need them.

    Let’s say you had to pay an unexpected $400 bill. How would you handle it?

    Would you call a friend or a relative? Have that amount saved up, ready and waiting for emergency use? Cover it with your income? According to the Federal Reserve, only 63% of Americans could cover a $400 financial shock with the cash they have on hand.

    By regularly setting aside some of the money you earn, you can simultaneously manage your risks better and develop the skills to achieve bigger goals.

    Managing your own financial risks means doing your best to prevent a bad situation from getting worse. It also means you might be able to prevent a catastrophe in the future or be able to deal with it better.

    Having insurance policies, such as life and disability, homeowners or renters, and health and auto, is part of this. But so are maintaining enough savings to cover an emergency or having multiple income streams.

    The steps you take can also include something less tangible, such as caring for your health or tending to your relationships with friends and relatives so you can call on them when times are truly tough. Or better yet, they’ll be able to call on you.

    Jeffrey Anvari-Clark does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How to manage financial stress in uncertain times – https://theconversation.com/how-to-manage-financial-stress-in-uncertain-times-255583

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Repealing the estate tax could create headaches for the rich – as well as worsen inequality

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Reid Kress Weisbord, Distinguished Professor of Law and Judge Norma Shapiro Scholar, Rutgers University – Newark

    As it stands, only a tiny fraction of America’s wealthy are ever subjected to the estate tax. Krisanapong Detraphiphat/Getty Images

    Nothing is more certain than death and taxes, Benjamin Franklin famously declared. And, since 1916, the federal government has imposed an estate tax on the transfer of property owned at death.

    But the Trump administration and Republican lawmakers may be on the verge of changing all that. GOP legislators are now considering a massive bill that includes major tax law changes and could pass by June or July 2025. Among the measures under consideration in both the House and Senate is the Death Tax Repeal Act, which would end the federal estate tax and reduce the tax rate on lifetime gifts.

    If the Death Tax Repeal Act were to become law, it would happen at a pivotal moment. In the coming years, baby boomers are expected to leave an estimated US$84 trillion to their heirs, in what’s been called the largest wealth transfer in human history.

    As law professors who specialize in trusts and estates, we’re interested in what might happen next. Interestingly, while the long-term impact to the federal budget would be significant, repealing the estate tax would complicate estate planning for the wealthy taxpayers who might not save all that much money. To understand why, let’s consider how the estate tax works now.

    Estate planning under current law

    The estate tax – which opponents of the policy have long derided as “the death tax” – is imposed on property that is transferred at death. It is part of the federal gift and estate tax system, which imposes a 40% tax on gifts made during life or transferred at death. Supporters of the estate tax argue that it reduces inequality and encourages charitable giving.

    But most Americans, even the very rich, will never pay any gift or estate tax. That’s because millions of dollars of assets transferred after death are completely exempt from it.

    For 2025, the cumulative gift and estate tax exemption is $13.99 million for individuals and $27.98 million for married couples. The current exemption doubled under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which President Donald Trump signed into law in 2017. And it sunsets this year. Unless Congress passes new legislation, the exemption amount will go back to its 2017 base of $5 million for individuals, plus an inflation adjustment. That would increase the number of estates on which it would be levied.

    If the Death Tax Repeal Act passes, of course, then there will be no federal transfer tax imposed on estates.

    The estate tax is a lightning rod on Capitol Hill, even though it doesn’t affect many Americans. In 2022, the U.S. Treasury collected $22.5 billion in estate tax revenues from 3,170 estates. More than 3 million people died, so only 0.1% of decedents left enough assets for their estates to pay the tax.

    The big freeze: How the ultrarich reduce their tax liability

    Beyond taking advantage of this generous exemption, wealthy taxpayers currently use several planning techniques to reduce or eliminate estate taxes.

    A common strategy involves minimizing tax on assets that are likely to grow in value. Suppose, for example, a person owns property worth $25 million, and they have already used up their exemption (currently $13.99 million). If that $25 million property appreciates in value to $125 million, and the person waits until death to transfer it to the next generation, the entire investment – all $125 million – would be subject to the 40% estate tax.

    To reduce those taxes without entirely giving up control, sophisticated “estate freeze” planning techniques allow owners to keep some powers over the gifted property while transferring it for gift tax purposes before assets appreciate in value. In our example, if the $25 million asset were transferred through a freeze device such as an intentionally defective grantor trust, then the only tax would be a 40% gift tax on the $25 million. All of the appreciation – the other $100 million – would incur no gift or estate tax.

    Other estate planning techniques could further reduce the valuation for transfer tax purposes through minority interest, lack of marketability and other discounts. It’s through techniques like this that wealthy Americans are able to pass along approximately $200 billion each year in inherited assets without paying estate taxes.

    The Death Tax Repeal Act would not directly affect the tax treatment of charitable giving at death – over $40 billion – but it could alter incentives for philanthropic giving.

    Repealing the estate tax could upend existing estate plans

    If Congress repeals the estate tax but keeps the gift tax as proposed, many estate freeze planning techniques previously used by the ultrarich would become obsolete. There would be no incentive to make a lifetime gift of property that would appreciate: Individuals who hold onto their property until death would avoid both federal transfer and capital gains taxes.

    As a result, repealing the estate tax would turn existing estate plans on their head. Estate freeze strategies are premised on a calculated trade-off: To reduce or eliminate estate taxation at death, wealthy donors choose to make lifetime gifts even though doing so alters lifetime ownership rights, generates gift tax liability and sacrifices other tax benefits at death.

    Without an estate tax, existing estate freeze plans lock in the costs of lifetime gifting without any payoff at death. What’s more, some estate freeze plans can’t be changed. For example, an intentionally defective grantor trust must be irrevocable to freeze valuation for gift tax purposes.

    So while repealing the estate tax might seem appealing to wealthy Americans, the actual tax benefit could be modest at best for taxpayers who established estate plans under the current system. Financial advisers have also expressed concern about creating new estate plans designed to benefit from estate tax repeal because a future Congress could revive the tax.

    Repealing the estate tax could also have macroeconomic implications. Tax incentives to retain ownership until death could tie up capital in ways that dampen economic growth. Individuals tend to become increasingly risk-averse with age, so the Death Tax Repeal Act could skew investments toward safer asset classes. That could deprive younger generations of access to capital for new ventures, such as startups.

    The bottom line is that repealing the estate tax may hurt both taxpayers and the government. People with sufficient wealth to exhaust the high exemption are likely to have established estate plans that can’t be changed to benefit from estate tax repeal. Meanwhile, for new estate plans that seek to retain property ownership until death, the government will lose an important source of tax revenue – $22.5 billion in 2022 – collected from a tiny number of very wealthy estates that can afford to pay the tax.

    And, of course, repeal would also abandon the original purpose of the estate tax, which sought to reduce extreme concentrations of wealth.

    The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Repealing the estate tax could create headaches for the rich – as well as worsen inequality – https://theconversation.com/repealing-the-estate-tax-could-create-headaches-for-the-rich-as-well-as-worsen-inequality-254871

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Measles could again become widespread as cases surge worldwide

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Rebecca Schein, Assistant Professor of Infectious Disease Pediatrics, Michigan State University

    Measles is one of the most infectious diseases on the planet. Kateryna Kon/Science Photo Library via Getty Images

    Globally, measles is on the rise across the U.S., Canada, Mexico, South America and parts of Europe. In 2025, North and South America saw 11 times more cases than during the same period last year. In Europe, measles rates are at their highest point in 25 years.

    In the U.S., as of May 2, 2025, health authorities have confirmed 935 cases of measles affecting 30 states. This is a huge surge compared with the 285 cases reported in 2024. A large measles outbreak is happening in Canada, too, with over 1,000 cases.

    The Conversation asked Rebecca Schein, a specialist in pediatric infectious diseases, to explain what this spike at home and abroad might mean for a disease that was declared eliminated from the U.S. in 2000.

    How do measles cases this year compare with previous years?

    From 2000 to 2010, less than 100 measles cases were reported each year in the U.S. Since 2010, there have been isolated outbreaks, mainly in unvaccinated communities, with approximately 200 to 300 cases a year. The latest major outbreak in the U.S. was in 2019, with 1,274 cases, primarily in the New York City metropolitan area and parts of New Jersey.

    Cases fell in 2020 to 2023 during the COVID-19 pandemic, returning to prepandemic levels in 2024. Currently, most U.S. cases are coming from an epidemic in Texas, with 702 confirmed cases as of May 6. Of these, 91 people were hospitalized and three people, two of them children, died. Measles cases are still being reported. Texas is one of 12 measles outbreaks documented in the U.S. in 2025 to date.

    The World Health Organization has declared both North and South America to be at high risk for measles. Canada reported a total of 1,177 cases as of April 19, with 951 of them linked to an outbreak that began in New Brunswick in October 2024 and spread to seven provinces. In 2023, there were 12 measles cases in all of Canada.

    Mexico reported 421 confirmed measles cases as of April 18, and another 384 cases are under investigation. There are also small measles outbreaks in South America, with Belize reporting its first two cases since 1991. Brazil reported five cases, and in Argentina there are 21 confirmed cases of measles, mainly in the capital city of Buenos Aires.

    U.S. exports these days include measles.

    In Europe, measles cases rose tenfold, hitting 35,212 in 2024, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control.

    How did the US eliminate measles?

    Measles is one of the most contagious infections ever identified. One person with measles can spread the infection to 12 to 18 others. That number, which epidemiologists call R0, is 1 to 4 for the flu and 2 to 5 for COVID-19.

    In 1912, measles became a nationally reportable disease tracked by all the health departments in the U.S. At that time, there were about 3 million to 4 million cases and 6,000 deaths each year in the country. Medical care improved and the death rate decreased, but cases spiked to epidemic levels every two to three years.

    It was not until 1963, when the first measles vaccine became widely available, that cases dropped dramatically. The current measles vaccine, which is called the MMR vaccine because it also includes vaccines against mumps and rubella, was released in 1971. In 1977, the U.S. government launched the National Childhood Immunization Initiative to ensure that school children received vaccination against polio, diphtheria, pertussis, tetanus, mumps, rubella and measles. Vaccination rates in children starting elementary school rose to 96% by 1981. Beginning in 1993, the Vaccines for Children program helped ensure that every child could receive vaccinations regardless of ability to pay.

    Vaccination programs were a resounding success. By 2000, measles cases arising in the U.S. had fallen to zero, with infections occurring only in people who traveled abroad. That year, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention declared that measles was eliminated in the country.

    Why are rising measles rates so worrisome?

    Measles is a virus, like the common cold. Unlike bacterial infections, which can be treated with antibiotics, viral infections are typically not treatable but can often be prevented through vaccination programs.

    Vaccination stimulates the body’s immune system to make antibodies to fight a specific infection. For most people, just one dose of the measles vaccine protects them from infection. The second dose helps ensure long-term protection. Measles is so infectious that 95% of the population must be vaccinated to protect the community, a concept called herd immunity.

    A man holds a sign at a rally for science in St. Paul, Minn., on March 7, 2025.
    Universal Images Group via Getty Images

    During the past 20 years, however, vaccination rates are decreasing globally, with an especially sharp drop during the pandemic from limited exposure to medical care. Aligned with this trend, measles cases in the U.S. have been rising. As a result, some infectious disease experts worry that measles is heading toward becoming a common infection again.

    What happens if measles rates continue to rise?

    Public health officials define endemic infections as being consistently present within a region. For example, the common cold and now COVID-19 are endemic in the U.S.

    A higher-than-normal number of cases in an area is termed an outbreak. For measles, an outbreak is defined as more than three cases in a county or local area. When cases from an outbreak spread outside the local area, that is an epidemic, and if an epidemic spreads into many countries across the world, it becomes a pandemic.

    The measles outbreak in Texas started in January 2025 as an outbreak in six counties and quickly reached epidemic levels, hitting a total of 29 counties and a count of 702 cases as of May 6.

    A 2022 study used a computer algorithm to model the trajectory of measles cases in the U.S. given the drop in vaccination rates during the pandemic. If children who missed vaccines due to the pandemic do not receive catch-up vaccinations, and vaccine hesitancy continues at current rates, the study found, then 21% of U.S. children – about 15 million – will be vulnerable to measles over the following five years. That is well below the number needed to prevent measles outbreaks.

    A study using a similar approach published in April 2025 found that measles is likely to become endemic again in the U.S. and predicted that the country could experience 850,000 cases over the next 25 years if vaccination rates remain the same. If vaccine rates decrease further, the study found, case numbers could increase to 11 million over the next 25 years.

    What would it take to reverse the rise in measles?

    Reversing this trend will require steadily increasing community vaccination rates. The April 2025 study found that boosting community vaccination rates by 5% would tamp down the increase in cases to between 3,000 and 19,000 over the next 25 years.

    Another epidemiological model that estimates measles spread, published in February, predicted that by intervening early in an outbreak with local health department support, measles outbreaks can be contained as long as 85% of the population is vaccinated against the disease.

    That, of course, requires ensured ongoing access to free and accessible childhood vaccinations and restoration of the public’s trust in measles vaccines.

    Rebecca Schein does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Measles could again become widespread as cases surge worldwide – https://theconversation.com/measles-could-again-become-widespread-as-cases-surge-worldwide-255501

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Contaminated milk from one plant in Illinois sickened thousands with ‘Salmonella’ in 1985 − as outbreaks rise in the US, lessons from this one remain true

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Michael Petros, Clinical Assistant Professor of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Illinois Chicago

    A valve that mixed raw milk with pasteurized milk at Hillfarm Dairy may have been the source of contamination. This was the milk processing area of the plant. AP Photo/Mark Elias

    In 1985, contaminated milk in Illinois led to a Salmonella outbreak that infected hundreds of thousands of people across the United States and caused at least 12 deaths. At the time, it was the largest single outbreak of foodborne illness in the U.S. and remains the worst outbreak of Salmonella food poisoning in American history.

    Many questions circulated during the outbreak. How could this contamination occur in a modern dairy farm? Was it caused by a flaw in engineering or processing, or was this the result of deliberate sabotage? What roles, if any, did politics and failed leadership play?

    From my 50 years of working in public health, I’ve found that reflecting on the past can help researchers and officials prepare for future challenges. Revisiting this investigation and its outcome provides lessons on how food safety inspections go hand in hand with consumer protection and public health, especially as hospitalizations and deaths from foodborne illnesses rise.

    Contamination, investigation and intrigue

    The Illinois Department of Public Health and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention led the investigation into the outbreak. The public health laboratories of the city of Chicago and state of Illinois were also closely involved in testing milk samples.

    Investigators and epidemiologists from local, state and federal public health agencies found that specific lots of milk with expiration dates up to April 17, 1985, were contaminated with Salmonella. The outbreak may have been caused by a valve at a processing plant that allowed pasteurized milk to mix with raw milk, which can carry several harmful microorganisms, including Salmonella.

    Overall, labs and hospitals in Illinois and five other Midwest states – Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin – reported over 16,100 cases of suspected Salmonella poisoning to health officials.

    To make dairy products, skimmed milk is usually separated from cream, then blended back together in different levels to achieve the desired fat content. While most dairies pasteurize their products after blending, Hillfarm Dairy in Melrose Park, Illinois, pasteurized the milk first before blending it into various products such as skim milk and 2% milk.

    Subsequent examination of the production process suggested that Salmonella may have grown in the threads of a screw-on cap used to seal an end of a mixing pipe. Investigators also found this strain of Salmonella 10 months earlier in a much smaller outbreak in the Chicago area.

    Salmonella is a common cause of food poisoning.
    Volker Brinkmann/Max Planck Institute for Infection Biology via PLoS One, CC BY-SA

    Finding the source

    The contaminated milk was produced at Hillfarm Dairy in Melrose Park, which was operated at the time by Jewel Companies Inc. During an April 3 inspection of the company’s plant, the Food and Drug Administration found 13 health and safety violations.

    The legal fallout of the outbreak expanded when the Illinois attorney general filed suit against Jewel Companies Inc., alleging that employees at as many as 18 stores in the grocery chain violated water pollution laws when they dumped potentially contaminated milk into storm sewers. Later, a Cook County judge found Jewel Companies Inc. in violation of the court order to preserve milk products suspected of contamination and maintain a record of what happened to milk returned to the Hillfarm Dairy.

    Political fallout also ensued. The Illinois governor at the time, James Thompson, fired the director of the Illinois Public Health Department when it was discovered that he was vacationing in Mexico at the onset of the outbreak and failed to return to Illinois. Notably, the health director at the time of the outbreak was not a health professional. Following this episode, the governor appointed public health professional and medical doctor Bernard Turnock as director of the Illinois Department of Public Health.

    In 1987, after a nine-month trial, a jury determined that Jewel officials did not act recklessly when Salmonella-tainted milk caused one of the largest food poisoning outbreaks in U.S. history. No punitive damages were awarded to victims, and the Illinois Appellate Court later upheld the jury’s decision.

    Raw milk is linked to many foodborne illnesses.

    Lessons learned

    History teaches more than facts, figures and incidents. It provides an opportunity to reflect on how to learn from past mistakes in order to adapt to future challenges. The largest Salmonella outbreak in the U.S. to date provides several lessons.

    For one, disease surveillance is indispensable to preventing outbreaks, both then and now. People remain vulnerable to ubiquitous microorganisms such as Salmonella and E. coli, and early detection of an outbreak could stop it from spreading and getting worse.

    Additionally, food production facilities can maintain a safe food supply with careful design and monitoring. Revisiting consumer protections can help regulators keep pace with new threats from new or unfamiliar pathogens.

    Finally, there is no substitute for professional public health leadership with the competence and expertise to respond effectively to an emergency.

    Michael Petros does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Contaminated milk from one plant in Illinois sickened thousands with ‘Salmonella’ in 1985 − as outbreaks rise in the US, lessons from this one remain true – https://theconversation.com/contaminated-milk-from-one-plant-in-illinois-sickened-thousands-with-salmonella-in-1985-as-outbreaks-rise-in-the-us-lessons-from-this-one-remain-true-254036

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Spacecraft can ‘brake’ in space using drag − advancing craft agility, space safety and planetary missions

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Piyush Mehta, Associate Professor of Space Systems, West Virginia University

    Planetary space probes such as Mars Odyssey use a technique called aerobraking to save fuel. NASA/JPL

    When you put your hand out the window of a moving car, you feel a force pushing against you called drag. This force opposes a moving vehicle, and it’s part of the reason why your car naturally slows to a stop if you take your foot off the gas pedal. But drag doesn’t just slow down cars.

    Aerospace engineers are working on using the drag force in space to develop more fuel-efficient spacecraft and missions, deorbit spacecraft without creating as much space junk, and even place probes in orbit around other planets.

    Space is not a complete vacuum − at least not all of it. Earth’s atmosphere gets thinner with altitude, but it has enough air to impart a force of drag on orbiting spacecraft, even up to about 620 miles (1,000 kilometers).

    As an aerospace engineering professor, I study how drag affects the movement of spacecraft in orbit. Aerobraking, as the name suggests, is a type of maneuver that uses the thin air in space to apply a drag force in the direction opposite to a spacecraft’s motion, much like braking in a car.

    Changing an orbit

    In space, aerobraking can change the orbit of a spacecraft while minimizing the use of its propulsion system and fuel.

    Spacecraft that orbit around Earth do so in two types of orbits: circular and elliptical. In a circular orbit, the spacecraft is always at the same distance from the center of the Earth. As a result, it’s always moving at the same speed. An elliptical orbit is stretched, so the distance from Earth − and the speed the craft moves at − changes as the spacecraft travels along the orbit.

    The closest point in an elliptical orbit around Earth, where the satellite or spacecraft is moving fastest, is called the perigee. The farthest point, where it’s moving slowest, is called the apogee.

    The apogee is the point farthest from Earth in an elliptical orbit, while the perigee is the point closest to Earth.
    Iketsi/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    The general idea behind aerobraking is to start in a large circular orbit and maneuver the spacecraft into a highly elliptical orbit, so that the lowest point in the orbit − the perigree − lies in the denser part of the upper atmosphere. For Earth, that’s between about 62 and 310 miles (100 and 500 kilometers), with the choice depending on time required to complete the orbit change.

    As the spacecraft passes through this lowest point, the air exerts a drag force on it, which reduces the stretch of the orbit over time. This force pulls the craft toward a circular orbit smaller than the original orbit.

    Aerobraking brings a spacecraft from a large, circular orbit into a highly elliptical orbit, into a smaller, more circular one.
    Moneya/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    The first maneuver to put the spacecraft in an elliptical orbit so that drag can take effect does require using a propulsion system and some fuel. But once it’s in the elliptical orbit, drag from the atmosphere slows the craft, and it doesn’t need to use much, if any, fuel.

    Aerobraking brings a craft from a large orbit to a small orbit and is not reversible − it can’t increase the size of an orbit. Increasing the size of an orbit or raising the spacecraft to a higher orbit requires propulsion and fuel.

    Aerobraking uses

    A common case where spacecraft controllers use aerobraking is when changing the craft’s orbit from a geostationary orbit − GEO − to a low Earth orbit, LEO. A GEO orbit is a circular orbit with an altitude of roughly 22,236 miles (35,786 km). In GEO, the spacecraft makes one orbit around Earth in 24 hours, so the spacecraft always stays above the same point on Earth’s surface.

    In GEO orbit, a spacecraft orbits with Earth and stays above the same point on the surface the whole time.
    MikeRun/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA

    Before aerobraking, the spacecraft’s onboard propulsion system thrusts in the opposite direction of the GEO orbit’s motion. This thrust puts it into an elliptical orbit. The craft passes through the atmosphere multiple times, which eventually circularizes the orbit.

    Once it makes it to LEO, the spacecraft may need to use a little bit of fuel to propel itself up into its target orbit. Usually, the lowest point of the original elliptical orbit is lower than the final target circular orbit.

    This process is conceptually similar to how the U.S. Space Force’s X-37B used aerobraking in early 2025.

    The U.S. Space Force reported that its unmanned spaceplane, X-37B, used aerobraking. This test demonstrated the craft’s agility and maneuverability.

    Another application for aerobraking is to make a spacecraft deorbit − or reenter the atmosphere − after it has stopped working. This way, the company or agency can dispose of the spacecraft and avoid creating space junk, since it will burn up in the lower atmosphere.

    NASA’s Mars reconnaissance orbiter used aerobraking to orbit around Mars.
    NASA/JPL

    Aerobraking for interplanetary missions

    A few Mars missions, including the Mars reconnaissance orbiter and the Mars Odyssey orbiter, have used aerobraking to reach their target orbits around the red planet.

    For interplanetary missions like these, scientists use aerobraking in conjunction with the craft’s onboard propulsion system. When a spacecraft arrives at Mars, it does so in a hyperbolic orbit.

    While an elliptical orbit is closed, a hyperbolic orbit doesn’t go all the way around a planet.
    Maxmath12/Wikimedia Commons

    Unlike a circular or an elliptical orbit, the spacecraft’s path in hyperbolic orbit won’t keep it orbiting around Mars. Instead, it would fly through and depart Mars − unless it uses thrust from its propulsion system to get “captured” into a closed elliptical orbit.

    As the spacecraft arrives at Mars, the onboard propulsion system fires to provide the force necessary to capture the spacecraft into a highly elliptical orbit around Mars. Once captured, scientists use aerobraking over several orbital passes through the atmosphere to achieve the final orbit, generally a circular one.

    Aerobraking maneuvers can result in significant fuel savings. As humans get closer to landing on the surface of the red planet, the fuel savings enabled by aerobraking could save mass and allow each spacecraft headed to Mars to take more supplies.

    In the grand arc of space exploration, aerobraking is not just a maneuver. It has a crucial role to play in the future of space operations and planetary missions and colonization.

    Piyush Mehta receives funding from multiple federal agencies – NASA, NSF, NOAA, IARPA, and DoD.

    ref. Spacecraft can ‘brake’ in space using drag − advancing craft agility, space safety and planetary missions – https://theconversation.com/spacecraft-can-brake-in-space-using-drag-advancing-craft-agility-space-safety-and-planetary-missions-254038

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Was it a stone tool or just a rock? An archaeologist explains how scientists can tell the difference

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By John K. Murray, Ph.D. Candidate in Anthropology, Arizona State University

    Stone tools are deliberately made by the hands of hominins, like these worked on by the author. John K. Murray

    Have you ever found yourself in a museum’s gallery of human origins, staring at a glass case full of rocks labeled “stone tools,” muttering under your breath, “How do they know it’s not just any old rock?”

    At first glance, it might seem impossible to decipher. But as an experimental archaeologist with over a decade of experience studying and manufacturing stone tools, I can say that there are telltale signs that a rock has been modified by humans or our very ancient ancestors, hominins.

    This process, known as flintknapping, can be boiled down to mastering force, angles and rock structure. When done properly, flintknapping creates the recognizable features that archaeologists use to identify stone tools.

    A demonstration of traditional flintknapping techniques.

    Why do stone tools matter?

    John Murray demonstrates his flintknapping skills for the Glendale Community College Anthropology Club.
    John K. Murray

    Stone tools are rocks that have been selected for use or intentionally altered. This technology appeared around 3.3 million years ago and became essential to hominins – all the living and extinct species that belong to the human lineage. Currently, we Homo sapiens are the only living hominin.

    We are not the only living species to make and use stone tools, though – many other primates do – but the extent to which hominins modify them is unparalleled in the animal kingdom. Monkeys and other apes may hold a large stone in their hands to crack a nut on a flat, tablelike stone.

    But most hominins don’t rely on stones collected as-is. They modify and shape them into useful tools for a variety of tasks, including cutting meat or plants, woodworking, scraping hide and even as projectiles.

    Stone tools are important to archaeologists because they are durable and preserve well. This makes them some of the best evidence for hominin behavior and allows us to better understand how different populations adapted to local environments across time and large geographic regions.

    How are stone tools made?

    Hominins manufacture stone tools by fracturing or abrading rock. Here, I am going to focus on fractured or flaked stone technology because tools made through this technique dominate the archaeological record.

    The process of flaking involves applying force to the edge of a stone, known as the striking platform, through percussion or pressure to remove portions of the rock, which are called flakes. With some guidance from a teacher and plenty of practice, flintknappers can learn how to identify a promising platform on a chunk of stone, called a core, and consistently remove flakes from it. When struck, the platform is removed from the core and is a key feature of the flake.

    Flakes offer an immediate sharp cutting edge. A flintknapper can also further modify them into more specific shapes for other uses. An iconic example of this is the hand ax, which is a core that’s been flaked into a teardrop shape.

    Cores, left, are the object being struck by the flintknapper, and flakes, right, are the sharp-edged material removed from the core. Some cores, like this one from the archaeological site Pinnacle Point 5-6 in South Africa, can be as small as the tip of a finger.
    John K. Murray

    We often use hammerstones or large pieces of antler, called billets, to strike the core’s edge. Repetitive flaking not only allows a flintknapper to produce a significant amount of sharp cutting edge in the form of flakes, but gives them the ability to shape the core to their desired form … often with the risk of personal injury along the way. My fingers can attest to this!

    A modern flintknapper’s toolkit consists of leather pads, gloves, safety glasses, antler billets (left), hard hammerstones (right), and abraders (center-right with grooves), used to rub the edge of the stone to strengthen the platform before striking.
    John K. Murray

    However, not every type of rock has the characteristics needed to be flaked into a tool. You want the stone to exhibit what’s called conchoidal fracture. If you’ve ever seen glass break, you’ve witnessed conchoidal fracture. This smooth break, with concentric wavelike ripples, is defined by the physics of how force moves through different materials.

    Obsidian hand ax made by John Murray, showcasing examples of conchoidal fracture produced while making flakes to shape it.
    John K. Murray

    When an experienced knapper is preparing to remove a flake, we understand how the material we’re working will break when we strike it, so we can predict the shape and size of the tools that we are producing. A stone like obsidian, which is volcanic glass, is the poster child for conchoidal fracture.

    Of course, there is a lot of variation in the quality of rock that hominins have used for manufacturing stone tools, and many have made use of lesser quality stone. Even some of the earliest toolmakers were preferentially selecting rocks for certain properties, such as durability.

    How can you recognize stone tools?

    You may hear people saying that rocks that they found in their garden were tools because they “fit perfectly in the hand” or are “tool shaped.” But it’s not quite that straightforward. Although shape and function may play a role in the final product of a stone tool, it is not the smoking gun.

    Archaeologists can determine whether a chunk of rock is a stone tool based on clues left behind from the process of conchoidal fracture during flintknapping.

    One such clue is the presence of flake scars, or what we call negative removals, which can be found on both cores and flakes. These have characteristic ridges on one or more sides of the rock that outline previous flake removals – hence the use of the term scar.

    When we see multiple flake scars that are consistent in their orientation and size as opposed to being random, it is likely the stone in question was deliberately worked on by a hominin.

    The second feature is what we call the bulb of percussion. This is a bulge in the flake, just below the striking platform, that results from the concentration of force when the knapper struck it.

    Considering that producing a bulb of percussion requires the rock to be struck on a platform at a specific angle with enough force to detach it from the stone, it is improbable that this feature would be created through natural processes – but not impossible. Scientists have found naturally produced sharp stone fragments, or naturaliths, all over the world, even in Antarctica.

    However, when a lot of flakes with these diagnostic characteristics are found together, it’s unlikely they were created naturally.

    A hand ax made by John Murray shows many flake scars, some of which are outlined in black. The inner surface of three flakes shows the bulb of percussion just below the platform.
    John K. Murray

    The final thing to consider when determining whether a rock is a stone tool is the context in which it was found. Are there many stones in the area that exhibit the characteristics that we look for when trying to identify a stone tool? Is the stone tool made of an exotic material, or is it like the rest of the rocks near it?

    If you find a lot of stone tools in the same area made from one type of rock, you might have stumbled across an ancient flintknapping workshop. However, if you discover a tool that was made from a type of stone that can only be found hundreds of miles away, maybe someone traded for this material or carried it with them.

    Try it for yourself

    I think the best way for you to be able to learn to recognize whether a chunk of stone was a tool or just a rock is to try flintknapping yourself. I have taught more than 100 people of all ages to manufacture stone tools, and most agree: It is harder than you’d think.

    This experience puts you into the minds of our hominin ancestors, trying to tackle one of the earliest problems our lineage faced: getting a sharp edge from a chunky piece of rock.

    John K. Murray does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Was it a stone tool or just a rock? An archaeologist explains how scientists can tell the difference – https://theconversation.com/was-it-a-stone-tool-or-just-a-rock-an-archaeologist-explains-how-scientists-can-tell-the-difference-251126

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: The dangerous business of predicting the death of popes – a history

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Michelle Pfeffer, Research Fellow in Early Modern History, University of Oxford

    Portrait of Michel de Nostredame (Nostradamus), painted by his son César de Nostredame. Wiki Commons

    Michel de Nostredame (1503-66), better known as Nostradamus, is often hailed as one of the most successful prophets of all time. Said to have foreseen major world events from the rise of Hitler to COVID, the 16th-century astrologer was recently credited with predicting Pope Francis’s death – and what would happen next.

    ‘Through the death of a very old Pontiff

    A Roman of good age will be elected.

    Of him it will be said that he weakens his seat

    But long will he sit in biting activity.

    Like all the quatrains in Nostradamus’s collection of prophecies, Les Prophéties (1555-68), this one is as enigmatic as it is flexible. Short, sweet and decontextualised, his prophetic poems feel timeless, and it is deliciously satisfying to recognise a real-world correlation. The problem is that his prophecies are so vague that they can be linked to any number of events – or old Pontiffs.

    Nostradamus’s “dark and cryptic” language was intentional. If he had been more explicit, not only his career, but perhaps even his life, may have been at risk.


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    Many of his prophecies concerned the rise and fall of the great and the good, and political prophecy was a high-risk business. In ancient Rome, astrologers had been expelled from the city for forecasting the death of emperors, and Renaissance leaders were no less paranoid. To avoid “scandalising and upsetting”, Nostradamus chose to veil his true meaning.

    This was not just a matter of self-preservation, but also a way to obscure politically explosive information. Claiming to know when a civic or church leader might die was valuable intelligence. This made astrology a key tool of Renaissance spy-craft, but also a dangerous weapon that needed to be monitored and regulated.

    Astrology, politics and the papal court

    As a system that promised to forecast plagues, natural disasters, war, and even the economy, astrology was a logical interest for Renaissance rulers.

    Universities taught their students how to make these predictions, and for some lucky graduates this led to a job in a royal, princely, or even papal court. Here their horoscopes could inform political decision-making and produce potent astrological propaganda.

    A horoscope for the founding of St. Peter’s Basilica in the Vatican in April 1506, cast by the astrologer Luca Gaurico. Luca Gaurico (1552).
    Tractatus Astrologicus

    Despite the condemnations of theologians, many popes patronised astrologers and sought their guidance.

    Julius II (1443-1513) chose the start date for the construction of Saint Peter’s Basilica based on astrological counsel. Leo X (1475-1521) founded a professorship in astrology at Rome’s first university, La Sapienza. And Paul III (1468-1549), heeding the judgment of the astrologer Luca Gaurico, appointed his grandson a cardinal at just 14.

    In a period in which popes could have a decisive impact on international politics, speculation about the health of the pontiff was rampant. Astrologers capitalised on this.

    When Ludovico Sforza (1452-1508), de facto ruler of Milan, asked his astrologer to predict the death of Innocent VIII, it was nothing unusual. The answer was that the pope would die around August 10 1492, if not sooner. When Innocent died on July 25, Ludovico was no doubt pleased. As the historian Monica Azzolini has shown, he had consulted his astrologer in the hope the next pope would be more supportive of his illegitimate regime.

    Some popes asked astrologers about their own deaths. But they didn’t like it so much when others did so – especially when the forecasts were made public. Even worse, such predictions often fed into Protestant propaganda.

    Popes knew public predictions about their death were politically destabilising, not to mention humiliating. At the end of 1559, the Index of Prohibited Books, a list of books forbidden by the Roman Catholic Church, banned texts containing astrological “divinations” about “future contingent events”.

    Earlier that year, just as Pope Paul IV was trying to conceal a serious illness from the public, the sighting of a comet had led to widespread speculation about his death. As the pope knew all too well, astrology could be a political liability.

    Orazio Morandi and Urban VIII

    Such legislation did not stop astrologers from making political predictions, not least because their clients never stopped asking. But increasingly these astrologers were playing with fire. As the historian Brendan Dooley has shown, Orazio Morandi learned this the hard way in 1630.

    Morandi made predictions about Pope Urban VII.
    Vatican Museums

    Morandi was an abbot at the monastery of Santa Prassede in Rome. He had been practising astrology for years, and he had been careful, framing his political forecasts in allusive language. But soon he went too far.

    In 1629, Morandi wrote an astrological commentary on various past papacies, critiquing their flaws. When he came to the present incumbent, Urban VIII (1568-1644), he not only predicted that his pro-French allies would destroy Italy, but that the pope himself would very soon suffer great violence, then death.

    There are several astrological techniques for predicting someone’s death. As above, astronomical phenomena like comets and eclipses could prompt speculation about an upcoming papal demise. But Morandi used the gold standard – a technique called “prorogation”. This required access to the person’s birth chart, from which astrologers could identify the planets or luminaries that were their “giver of life” and “giver of years”.

    Different planets gave different lifespans. For example, if the sun was your “giver of years”, and it was in a good position on your horoscope, you might expect to live to 120. If the sun was badly placed, your life expectancy might be just 19 years. Other parts of the horoscope could then modify these figures.

    Morandi identified the sun as Urban’s life giver. But the positions of the more nefarious planets on his birth chart meant he was lucky to have lived beyond the age of seven. In June 1630, Morandi concluded, a solar eclipse would seal the pope’s fate.

    Morandi’s prediction spread widely in clandestine circles, and it wasn’t long until his prediction was reported as fact. The pro-Spanish faction in Rome was thrilled. It was even rumoured that Spanish and German cardinals had begun the long journey to Rome for a new conclave.

    The earth surrounded by the planets, luminaries, and zodiac signs (1708).
    Andreas Cellarius, Harmonia Macrocosmica

    Embarrassingly, Urban first learned of the prophecy not through his own informants, but from the powerful French prelate Cardinal Richelieu. Himself an avid believer in astrology, Urban was greatly disturbed. He had Morandi arrested and jailed. During the trial, a young man called Matteo, servant to the current prior of Santa Prassede, was interrogated and tortured. Morandi himself soon died in prison under suspicious circumstances.

    But Urban lived on. The next year, he decreed it punishable by death to predict “the life or death of the sitting Roman Pontiff, including his blood relatives to the third degree inclusive”.

    Making a career in political forecasting was – and is – risky. But astrologers were ambitious and knew their efforts would be well remunerated. Predicting the death of a pope could help you quickly build a public profile, expanding your business. But after 1630, it was a risk many astrologers were no longer willing to take.

    Michelle Pfeffer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. The dangerous business of predicting the death of popes – a history – https://theconversation.com/the-dangerous-business-of-predicting-the-death-of-popes-a-history-255816

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: How Captain Planet cartoons shaped my awareness of the nature crisis

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Muzammal Ahmad Khan, Lecturer in Business and Management, University of the West of Scotland

    Captain Planet is set to return more than three decades since it first broadcast on TV. A new comic book series by Dynamite Entertainment promises to bring the 1990s environmental hero to a new generation.

    For those of us who grew up watching the original show, the message feels just as urgent today as it did then. As a researcher in sustainability and education, I often reflect on how early experiences shape our environmental values. Captain Planet was one of the first moments that made me think about our responsibility to the world around us.

    Writer of the new series David Pepose has said he wants to stay true to the original, while updating the story for today’s world. He stressed: “The reason Captain Planet fights for the environment is because he doesn’t want to see anyone die, and that’s something really powerful and timeless.” The villains, still driven by greed and destruction, seem even more real now than they did in the early 1990s.

    At the time, my family lived in a small village in rural Punjab, Pakistan, a place untouched by city life or the concept of climate change. Life was calm and slow. Each morning started with the call to prayer. Most evenings ended in darkness due to regular power cuts. As children, we had few distractions, playing cricket or hide-and-seek in the street.

    But in one corner of our living room stood something that connected us to a different world – a colour television. It was rare in the village, and it quickly became a shared object of wonder. Children from the neighbourhood would gather in our home during the brief hours when state television allowed Cartoon Network to air, around 3pm to 5pm. Among all the shows, one cartoon series stood out: Captain Planet and the Planeteers.

    The plot was simple but powerful. Captain Planet is a superhero fighting pollution, corporate greed and environmental destruction. He could only be summoned by the Planeteers, a group of five internationally diverse teens with magical rings: Kwame (Africa, Earth), Wheeler (North America, Fire), Linka (Eastern Europe, Wind), Gi (Asia, Water) and finally Ma-Ti (South America, Heart). With all those powers combined, Captain Planet would rise majestically into the air, ready to do battle with pollution-spreading villains.

    The executive producer of the original 1990 series, Barbara Pyle, said the goal was to inspire and teach young people about protecting the environment. Pyle mentioned that the show’s success was not about selling toys, but about including real environmental issues in the storylines. In my view, they achieved their goal.




    Read more:
    Why ocean pollution is a clear danger to human health


    None of us understood English well enough to follow every word, but we understood the energy and emotions. Rage when forests were burned. Sadness when oceans were poisoned. Joy when villains were defeated. Above all, a sense that the natural world mattered.

    I remember the day I was walking with my father past the fields near our village. A newly built factory was releasing black smoke into the sky, and its pipes discharged foul-smelling water into a stream used by some animals. I felt uneasy, even angry. It reminded me of the villains from the show’s characters such as Hoggish Greedly and Dr. Blight who treated the Earth like something disposable. I asked my father why nobody could stop this. He was surprised. I wished I were a Planeteer with a magic ring to call Captain Planet.

    That cartoon did more than entertain. It gave names and faces to ideas we had never heard in school. Our textbooks did not talk about pollution. Nobody taught us the value of trees or clean water. But Captain Planet made those things feel important. It suggested that someone should care. That maybe, that someone could be you.

    The show’s message stayed with me. Today, my research focuses on sustainability and education. I often reflect on how a cartoon played a part in shaping that interest. I did not realise it then, but those glowing rings and the famous line “the power is yours” planted an idea that never left me.




    Read more:
    Five satellite images that show how fast our planet is changing


    Captain Planet’s message still matters

    Children today grow up surrounded by technology. They scroll before they can cycle. The connection to nature that felt instinctive in our childhood is fading. And yet, the message of Captain Planet is still relevant. Perhaps more than ever.

    Children who watched the original series are now adults. We have careers, votes and voices. We understand that the threat is not fictional. The planet is under the same threats – pressure from rising temperatures, deforestation, polluted oceans and the relentless push for profit over preservation – only now the stakes are much higher.

    The message remains the same – small actions matter. Our choices can combine to create something powerful. The power to care, to act and to inspire others never disappeared. It was passed to us.




    Read more:
    Deforestation is causing more storms in west Africa, finds 30-year satellite study


    I often think about the importance of early environmental messages. Captain Planet did that in the 1990s for me. We cannot expect people to care about the future of the planet if they have never been encouraged to think about it. Now, with the return of Captain Planet, there is a chance to inspire a new generation to believe that the power is theirs.


    Don’t have time to read about climate change as much as you’d like?

    Get a weekly roundup in your inbox instead. Every Wednesday, The Conversation’s environment editor writes Imagine, a short email that goes a little deeper into just one climate issue. Join the 45,000+ readers who’ve subscribed so far.


    Muzammal Ahmad Khan does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. How Captain Planet cartoons shaped my awareness of the nature crisis – https://theconversation.com/how-captain-planet-cartoons-shaped-my-awareness-of-the-nature-crisis-255161

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: By VE Day in 1945, Stalin had got what he wanted in Poland – now Putin may get what he wants in Ukraine

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Wendy Webster, Professor of Modern Cultural History, University of Huddersfield

    Sell out: most Polish people felt they had been abandoned by their allies in the US and Great Britain at the Yalta Conference. US government

    As Britain celebrated Victory in Europe (VE) Day on May 8 1945, the Polish airmen of RAF 305 Bomber Squadron captured a starkly different sentiment in their diary. “‘Victory!’ every Anglo-Saxon says in greeting instead of the traditional ‘Hello!’. The word ‘Victory!’ is devoid of meaning, power and any sense today only for the Poles.”

    Despite their critical contributions to the allied war effort, from the Battle of Britain to Monte Cassino, Polish forces felt isolated and betrayed, their hopes of a free Poland crushed by the Yalta agreement. On that first VE Day, many Poles who fought with the allied forces recorded feeling sad, isolated or bitter.

    Tadeusz Szumowski, who served in the RAF in Britain found it almost impossible to join in the celebrations. He wrote in his diary: “Our war is lost, the war which we fought so hard and so long to win … It is a very long time since I felt so alone.”

    A Polish soldier in Italy wrote: “The war is over – but not for us. The population of the greater part of the world are happy, in consequence; but we are sad. I am afraid that we have lost so many of our best men all for nothing.”


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    What made “victory” devoid of meaning for Poles? In her study of Poland during the second world war, historian Halik Kochanski quotes the famed American journalist Martha Gellhorn, who reported from Italy: “All the Poles talk about Russia all the time. The soldiers gather several times a day around the car which houses the radio and listen to the news.”

    Many of these soldiers came from eastern Poland, which was invaded by the Soviet Union in 1939. Along with their families, they had been deported to Siberia or Kazakhstan and came out only under a so-called “amnesty” after Russia entered the war on the allied side. Gellhorn reported: “They follow the Russian advance across Poland with agonized interest.”

    As I found when researching my book about the diverse nationalities fighting alongside Britain in the second world war, Polish soldiers wrote about Russia all the time as well as talking about it. Their letters were censored and quoted in censorship reports.

    As they watched the Russian advance and heard news of the Yalta agreement which consigned Poland to the Soviet sphere of influence, they express anger, fear, bitterness, desolation, a sense of loss and betrayal, shock, bewilderment.

    The letters are striking for the many words which take on meanings that demonstrate a gulf that opens up, separating Poles from other allied soldiers. Victory belongs to others while Poles have gone down to a catastrophic defeat.

    Russia, widely regarded as a valued ally, is the enemy of Poles. The Polish slogan “For our freedom and yours” is rewritten in one letter: “We are fighting for yours and our freedom, but now I think rather only for yours.” Another letter asks: “What are we fighting for if Poland is to be enslaved?”

    Polish pilots of RAF 303 (Polish) Fighter Squadron during the second world war.
    Imprial War Museum

    Poles find it unbearable to be told that Russia is liberating Poland, using heavy irony. “The ‘liberation’ of Poland by our so-called Allies is causing us great anxiety. Probably my own home will soon be ‘liberated’.”

    Another soldier cautions: “Never, never congratulate our people of Warsaw and Poland being ‘liberated’. This sounds like the most cruel irony and is deeply resented by every Pole. You could speak about a lamb being liberated from a bear by a tiger.”

    The concept of “home” also acquires new meanings that are devoid of any association with pleasure or belonging. As the war ends, allied soldiers’ thoughts are increasingly about the prospect of returning home – but censors reported in 1944: “Thousands of letters written by Polish soldiers in the last days repeat as a cardinal topic that to Poland governed by communists they won’t return.”

    One soldier writes: “It would be better to be killed here on the battlefield than to be alive in the new ‘Red Paradise’ in Poland.” Another writes: “There is no return for us to the Soviet republic of Poland which seems to be the newest invention of our Allies.”

    Echoes of Yalta

    The Yalta agreement of February 1945 between America, Britain and Russia, the “Big Three” powers, confirmed Poles’ worst fears. Censors report that in the soldiers’ letters, it “overshadows all other topics”, and has “evoked a terrible shock amongst the Polish troops … they find that they are lost and betrayed”.

    One soldier writes: “For the last few days I have been in a state of dumb bewilderment. Occasionally I ask myself, ‘Can it be true?’ … I cannot believe that it has really happened.”

    Another soldier writes to his “Britisher friend” about his feelings of betrayal: “When this morning we heard the news about the statements from the Big Three meeting we got deadly silent … We sacrificed most of all countries – more than you even. We trusted you so much, and what have we got. Our biger [sic] friend let us go down.”

    Yalta is in Crimea – part of the territory annexed by Russia before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has made it clear he will offer no concessions on Ukraine, which he has argued all along he sees as an inalienable part of Russia. This is a stark reminder of Yalta when Josef Stalin made concessions on other matters, but none on Poland.

    Trump’s administration has offered Ukraine no security guarantees. Its framework to end the war will allow Russia to retain the territory it has seized. There are now echoes of what one Polish soldier wrote in 1945 of the Yalta agreement: “This business smells and no high-sounding words can disguise the stench of a bad deed.”

    Wendy Webster receives funding from the Arts and Humanities Research Council

    ref. By VE Day in 1945, Stalin had got what he wanted in Poland – now Putin may get what he wants in Ukraine – https://theconversation.com/by-ve-day-in-1945-stalin-had-got-what-he-wanted-in-poland-now-putin-may-get-what-he-wants-in-ukraine-255982

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Italy’s areas of wartime fascist resistance remain less susceptible to the far right today

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Juan Masullo, Assistant Professor, Institute of Political Science, Leiden University

    Across Europe, far-right parties are making unforeseen breakthroughs – from local councils to national and supranational parliaments. As their presence becomes normalised, these parties promote nationalist rhetoric, challenge democratic institutions, and attempt to reshape a political present rooted in hard-won struggles against authoritarianism.

    Yet, not all communities are equally permeable to these growing forces. Some actively resist, mobilising to block authoritarian ideologies and defend democratic values.

    Our recent research in Italy offers one explanation as to why some communities are less easily enticed into far-right politics than others. Local histories of wartime resistance continue to shape political cultures in ways that, even generations later, inspire people to push back against the resurgence of fascist and neo-fascist ideologies.

    In areas where anti-fascist resistance movements were active during the second world war, civic engagement to defend democratic values is stronger. In these communities, support for far-right parties is weaker.


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    These legacies aren’t accidental. They are cultivated, reinforced, and passed on through intensive and continuous local memory work.

    During Italy’s civil war (1943–1945), students, workers, farmers and clergy mobilised into bands of resistance to fight the Nazi-fascist regime. Their efforts were central to Italy’s liberation and the establishment of its democratic republic. While this story is often told at the national level, our research examines its enduring local consequences.

    Using an original dataset mapping resistance activity across about 8,000 Italian municipalities, we compared places with strong partisan mobilisation to those without. Even today, eight decades later, residents of areas with a resistance past are more likely to support initiatives that counter far-right ideologies.

    This was especially evident in the response to a recent initiative. In 2020 and 2021, a grassroots campaign proposed a law to ban the public glorification of fascism. To bring it for discussion before parliament, the campaign needed 50,000 signatures.

    Despite the pandemic, it collected over 240,000 within a few months. While support was widespread, municipalities with strong resistance histories were significantly more likely to participate. Our estimates show roughly 40% more signatures in these places.

    These patterns suggest that wartime resistance can leave legacies that translate into contemporary political behaviour. But data alone can’t explain how these legacies endure. That’s where our fieldwork comes in.

    We have been closely studying towns with deep resistance roots and strong support for the 2021 initiative to see how they keep these legacies alive and who is involved.

    We have followed (and participated in) memorialisation efforts in the Cuneo region, one of the main centres of wartime resistance, and in areas deeply affected by Nazi violence and known for creating some of the strongest partisan brigades. These include villages around Stazzema in Tuscany and Marzabotto in Emilia.

    The main insight is that remembrance isn’t just ceremonial – it’s part of daily life. Schools, hiking clubs, cultural associations, and city halls all contribute to preserving and activating the memory of resistance.

    One public elementary school in the rural hills around Bologna, for example, created a “memory garden” to honour local residents who died fighting fascism. Through interviews, art and storytelling, students have engaged directly with their community’s past, creating not only a commemorative space but a living bridge between generations.

    The memorial garden planted by students in.
    J Masullo, CC BY-ND

    Similarly, local Alpine clubs in Emilia Romagna and Piedmont restored partisan trails through the mountains, now used for memory treks. These hikes attract people who might not otherwise engage politically but who, by walking the paths of wartime partisans, connect with stories of sacrifice and solidarity. What begins as recreation becomes an encounter with democratic values.

    These deeply localised memory efforts – anchored in the names, stories and spaces of the community – often intensify during democratic threats. The 2021 campaign emerged amid growing support for parties like Lega and Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy).

    Related studies show that when exclusionary welfare policies gain ground, local communities sometime organise in defence of vulnerable groups. In towns with a resistance past, local “memory entrepreneurs” doubled their efforts in response to far-right victories.

    Memory as a political battle

    This is not just an Italian phenomenon. Across Europe, historical memory is a political battleground. In Germany, the Stolpersteine – brass plaques in sidewalks commemorating Nazi victims – serve as grassroots reminders that shape civic attitudes. In Hungary, activists have created “living memorials” to Holocaust victims, directly contesting government efforts to whitewash fascist collaboration.

    These commemorations also have measurable political effects. In Berlin, neighbourhoods where one or more Stolpersteine was placed before an election saw fewer votes for the far-right AfD (a 0.96%-point decrease) compared to those with no Stolpersteine. This happened across federal, state and EU elections between 2013 and 2021.

    A stolperstein in Berlin.
    Wikipedia/Drrcs15, CC BY-SA

    What unites these efforts is a belief that remembering the past matters – not only to honour it, but to shape the future. Local narratives of wartime resistance and victimisation help instil democratic values and inoculate communities against authoritarianism.

    But this doesn’t happen automatically. It requires effort. Teachers, students, parents, associations, and local councils all play a role in keeping memory alive and politically meaningful.

    Recognising this is especially vital today, when the meaning of anti-fascism itself is a polarising subject. Far-right leaders, including those in office, downplay and discredit the resistance’s legacy, replacing it with revisionist myths.

    A local cycling club marks liberation day with a tour of monuments dedicated to partisans.
    J Masullo, CC BY-ND

    When communities take ownership of their histories, they are more likely to uphold democratic principles not only in ceremonies, but at the ballot box and in everyday actions. The past is never just the past. The legacies of wartime resistance continue to shape how people view democracy, justice, and belonging. In times like these, remembering the resistance is more than homage – it is civic defence.

    Juan Masullo has received funding for this research from UNUWIDER and Leiden University.

    He is affiliated with the University of Milan.

    Simone Cremaschi has received funding for this research from UNUWIDER, the European Research Council (grant number 864687), and Leiden University.

    ref. Italy’s areas of wartime fascist resistance remain less susceptible to the far right today – https://theconversation.com/italys-areas-of-wartime-fascist-resistance-remain-less-susceptible-to-the-far-right-today-255859

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Conclave: the chemistry behind the black and white smoke

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By Mark Lorch, Professor of Science Communication and Chemistry, University of Hull

    White smoke from the chimney on top of the Sistine Chapel (Vatican City) indicates that the Pope has been elected. MartiBstock/Shutterstock

    This week, 133 cardinals have gathered in the Vatican to elect a new leader of the Catholic church. During their deliberations, the only indications of their progress are the regular plumes of smoke wafting from a freshly installed chimney perched on the roof of the Sistine Chapel.

    Tradition holds that black smoke indicates the cardinals have not yet agreed on a new leader, while white smoke signals that a new Pope has been elected. But what kind of smoke is it exactly? Let’s take a look at the science.

    The tradition of cardinals burning their ballot papers to maintain secrecy dates back to at least the 15th century. However, it wasn’t until the 18th century — when a chimney was installed in the Sistine Chapel to protect Michelangelo’s frescoes from soot — that the resulting smoke became visible to anyone outside the chapel.

    At the time, the smoke was not intended as a public signal, but once it was visible, onlookers began interpreting it as an indicator of the voting outcome.


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    By the 19th century, it had become customary to use smoke deliberately: if smoke was seen, it meant no Pope had been elected, whereas no smoke indicated a successful election. This of course lacked clarity and often caused confusion.

    The Vatican eventually sought to clarify matters by formalising the practice of fumata nera (black smoke) and fumata bianca (white smoke). Initially, damp straw and tar were added to the burning ballots. As anyone who has tried to light a damp bonfire knows, wet oily fuel can be difficult to ignite, but once it gets going, it produces plenty of dark smoke.

    This is the result of incomplete combustion: the energy from the flames is initially used to evaporate the water, which keeps the fire’s temperature low. As a result, many of the larger molecules in the tar do not fully combust, leading to the production of soot and dark smoke.

    However, once the moisture is driven off, the fire burns more efficiently, producing mainly steam and carbon dioxide. At that stage, the smoke diminishes and becomes much lighter.

    This fluctuating fumata — combined with the subjective interpretation of its colour — caused considerable confusion, particularly during the 1939 and 1958 conclaves. It wasn’t clear whether grey smoke was closer to black or white, for example. By the 1970s, the straw method had been abandoned in favour of more controllable chemical mixtures. This has since evolved into an unambiguous method for generating the required smoke signals.

    Current recipe

    In 2013, the Vatican confirmed that their fumata recipes now consist of a clear black smoke recipe: potassium perchlorate (KClO₄), an “oxidising substance” that provides oxygen to the reaction; anthracene, a hydrocarbon derived from coal tar that serves as a heavy smoke-producing fuel; and sulphur, added to adjust the burn rate and temperature.

    The result is a deliberately inefficient combustion reaction, producing a high volume of unburnt carbon particles. This abundance of carbon (soot) makes the smoke thick and black — akin to the smoke you might see from burning oil or rubber, which is rich in carbon-based particles.

    Black smoke from the Sistine Chapel, indicating that there was not a two-thirds majority in the papal election at the Conclave.
    wikipedia

    Meanwhile, white smoke is produced using a much cleaner fuel mix and a more powerful oxidiser. Potassium chlorate (KClO₃) — even more reactive than perchlorate — ensures a hot, vigorous burn. Lactose acts as the fuel, burning quickly and cleanly into water vapour and carbon dioxide.

    The rapid combustion of sugar yields large amounts of gaseous output (steam and CO₂), generating a voluminous white cloud. The final ingredient, pine rosin, produces thick white smoke when heated – releasing tiny droplets and light-coloured ash that appear whitish. It also contains terpenes that burn to yield a pale, visible smoke.

    When combined, the oxidising power of potassium chlorate allows the lactose and rosin to burn hot and fast, yielding mostly clean combustion products along with a cloud of vapour and resin particles.

    Rather than soot, the smoke contains microscopic droplets and fine solids that are transparent or white. The result is a mixture of steam and white or light gray smoke that contrasts sharply with the dark, carbon-rich black smoke.

    Over the years, the papal conclave smoke signal has evolved from an incidental byproduct of burning ballots into a carefully engineered communication tool.

    Today, thanks to modern chemistry, the smoke is unmistakable — thick black billows for inconclusive votes, or a bright white plume when a new pope is elected.

    Mark Lorch does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Conclave: the chemistry behind the black and white smoke – https://theconversation.com/conclave-the-chemistry-behind-the-black-and-white-smoke-255980

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: A new pope’s first appearance on St. Peter’s balcony is rich with symbols − and Francis’ decision to rein in the pomp spoke volumes

    Source: The Conversation – USA – By Daniel Speed Thompson, Associate Professor of Religious Studies, University of Dayton

    Pope Francis stands at the central balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica at the Vatican on March 13, 2013, just after being announced as pontiff. AP Photo/Andrew Medichini

    As the College of Cardinals gathers in the Sistine Chapel to vote for a new pope, crowds outside will watch for the most dramatic moment of the conclave, when a wisp of white smoke appears above the chimney.

    This smoke – made by burning the ballots – indicates that a new pope has been elected and he has accepted.

    After a short period of time, a cardinal appears on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica and makes the announcement in Latin: “Habemus papam!” – “We have a pope!” He then announces which cardinal has been selected and which name the new pope has chosen for himself.

    Finally, the new pope appears on the balcony and greets the crowd in St. Peter’s Square – a tradition full of symbolism.

    I am a scholar who studies Roman Catholic theology and history. I am particularly interested in how popes exercise authority and leadership today, including their use of symbols. When Pope Francis first appeared on that balcony in 2013, he used and adapted the ritual to convey a message about his intentions for his papacy.

    He did this in four ways.

    What’s in a name?

    First, he chose the name Francis. Since the sixth century C.E., new bishops of Rome have often taken a new name when they assumed the papacy.

    Over time, certain names have indicated to observers the direction that a pope wished to take or a model whom he wished to emulate. Jorge Mario Bergoglio opted for “Francis,” the first time that any pope had assumed that name.

    It refers to Francis of Assisi, an Italian saint who lived at the turn of the 13th century who was renowned for his simplicity, poverty, concern for the Earth and desire to imitate Jesus. Over the next 12 years, these traits proved central to his papacy.

    Not a king

    Second, Francis wore simple white papal garments instead of the more elaborate adornments worn by some of his predecessors. He wore his old, simple cross across his chest, rather than a new, more luxurious one.

    Francis waves during his first appearance as pope on March 13, 2013.
    AP Photo/Dmitry Lovetsky

    Popes have worn white garments as a symbol of their office for centuries. But many of them also used symbols of monarchy, such as the triple papal tiara or crown. Pope Paul VI, whose papacy was from 1963-1978, was the last to wear the tiara and to have a coronation ceremony. The following year, he sold the crown and donated the proceeds to emphasize the church’s commitment to the poor.

    Later popes have followed Paul’s example of avoiding royal symbolism, such as by no longer using a “sedia gestatoria,” the portable throne that traditionally carried the pope in formal processions. Francis took this trend even further and made simplicity of dress and lifestyle a hallmark of his time in office.

    Bishop of Rome

    Third, when Francis first addressed the crowd in St. Peter’s, he described himself as the new bishop of Rome.

    In Catholicism, the pope holds many titles representing the scope and duties of his office. For starters, he is not only the spiritual leader of the Roman Catholic Church but “sovereign of the State of Vatican City.”

    In terms of religious titles, some accentuate the pope’s authority. “Vicar of Christ,” for example, means he is Jesus’ representative on Earth. Others, such as “servus servorum Dei” – “servant of the servants of God” – emphasize his role as a support to other bishops and ministers of the church.

    Francis certainly did not deny the traditional authority of the pope’s office. However, he chose to identify himself first as the local bishop of the diocese of Rome, emphasizing how even the pope was first part of a local community. In the official Vatican yearbook for 2020, Francis listed his only title as “Bishop of Rome” and listed the rest as “historic.”

    Catholics from the parish of St. Joan Antida in Rome arrive to attend Pope Francis’ inaugural Mass at the Vatican on March 19, 2013.
    AP Photo/Domenico Stinellis

    ‘Pray for me’

    Fourth, Francis asked the assembled crowd to pray for him before he offered his first papal blessing.

    Traditionally, popes making their first appearance would offer a blessing to the people gathered in St. Peter’s Square. Francis took this ritual and reversed it. In harmony with his views on simplicity and his role as the bishop of Rome, he emphasized the mutual connection between him and the people. He downplayed the view of the pope as a hierarchical ruler above the people.

    Sometime soon a new pope will be introduced to the world. He will likely use these symbols of name, dress, title and blessing in his own way, pointing to his intentions for his papacy and for the Catholic Church.

    Daniel Speed Thompson does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. A new pope’s first appearance on St. Peter’s balcony is rich with symbols − and Francis’ decision to rein in the pomp spoke volumes – https://theconversation.com/a-new-popes-first-appearance-on-st-peters-balcony-is-rich-with-symbols-and-francis-decision-to-rein-in-the-pomp-spoke-volumes-255585

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: ‘Milkshake tax’: why it’s about innovative approaches to health, not household costs

    Source: The Conversation – UK – By David M. Evans, Professor of Sociotechnical Futures, University of Bristol Business School, University of Bristol

    Luis Molinero/Shutterstock

    The UK government is considering expanding its sugar tax on fizzy drinks to include milkshakes and other sweetened beverages, as part of new proposals announced in April 2025. The Treasury confirmed it plans to move forward not only with broadening the tax but also with lowering the sugar threshold that triggers it from 5g to 4g of sugar per 100ml.

    The changes, dubbed by critics as the “milkshake tax”, would end the current exemption for dairy-based drinks, as well as plant-based alternatives such as oat and rice milk. Chancellor Rachel Reeves first signalled the potential expansion in the 2024 budget, suggesting the soft drinks industry levy (SDIL), to give it its official name, could be widened to cover a broader range of high-sugar drinks.

    Based on our research into dietary change, conducted as part of the H3 project on food system transformation, we see this as a welcome and timely development.

    Not everyone shares this optimism. Opponents of what they see as “nanny state” interventionist policies argue that the SDIL has failed to deliver any real improvements to public health. In a UK newspaper’s straw poll, for example, 88% of respondents claimed the sugar tax has not significantly reduced obesity rates. Shadow Chancellor Melvyn Stride described the proposed expansion as a “sucker punch” to households, particularly given the ongoing cost of living crisis.

    Scepticism around these proposals is not surprising. Many people, regardless of political affiliation, are wary of additional taxation. And indeed, there is evidence suggesting that fiscal tools such as taxes and subsidies can be blunt instruments. They are also often regressive, placing a disproportionate burden on lower-income households.

    These concerns are valid – but they don’t quite apply to the SDIL.

    Crucially, the SDIL is not a tax on consumers. It is levied on manufacturers and importers, who are incentivised to reduce the sugar content of their products to avoid the charge. According to Treasury figures, since the introduction of the SDIL, 89% of fizzy drinks sold in the UK have been reformulated to fall below the taxable threshold.

    For instance, the Japanese multinational brewing and distilling company group Suntory invested £13 million in reformulating drinks like Ribena and Lucozade, removing 25,000 tonnes of sugar, making the products exempt from the levy. This means households aren’t priced out of soft drinks – they can simply choose reformulated and presumably cheaper versions.

    It’s true that the UK is still grappling with a serious obesity problem. In England alone, 29% of adultsand 15% of children aged two to 15 are obese.

    But the SDIL is having an effect. Excessive sugar consumption is consistently associated with rising obesity rates in the UK and globally. There has been a clear reduction in the sales of sugar from soft drinks, and the SDIL is reported to have generated £1.9 billion in revenue since its introduction in 2018.

    Early signs suggest health benefits, too. One study found a drop in obesity rates among 10 to 11-year-old girls following the levy’s implementation. Another analysis suggests that the greatest health benefits will be seen in more deprived areas, and that it may actually help to narrow some health inequalities for children in England.




    Read more:
    Child obesity is linked to deprivation, so why do poor parents still cop the blame?


    Shifting responsibilty

    The government’s 2016 announcement of the sugar tax gave manufacturers time to reformulate products before the tax’s introduction in 2018.

    Of course, the SDIL is no silver bullet. There are many contributing factors to the obesity epidemic, ranging from genetic predisposition to “obesogenic” environmentssocial contexts that promote unhealthy eating and sedentary behaviour, such as areas with a lot of fast food restaurants, limited access to healthy food options and a lack of pavements, parks, or safe places to exercise.

    Questions remain about the negative health effects of reformulated drinks, some of which still contain high levels of sweeteners or additives. And in the broader context of the need for food system transformation, focusing solely on soft drinks may be too narrow an approach.




    Read more:
    Are artificial sweeteners okay for our health? Here’s what the current evidence says


    But the SDIL’s success lies not just in outcomes but in its design. It shifts responsibility from individuals to industry, encouraging systemic change rather than simply blaming people for making “bad” choices. The government’s 2016 announcement of the levy gave manufacturers a two-year head start, allowing them to reformulate and get their products to market before it took effect in 2018.

    It’s also telling that the idea of taxing milkshakes has sparked such outrage, while most people now accept the high taxation of tobacco. That’s because smoking, as a public health issue, has matured: its risks are well understood and widely acknowledged. Obesity, meanwhile, is still catching up, despite posing similar health threats, including as a leading cause of cancer.

    In the UK, there’s still a strong social stigma around discussing diet and weight. But given the scale and urgency of the obesity crisis, it could be time to overcome this reluctance. Effective change will require bold, systemic policies – not just public awareness campaigns – but multipronged and targeted interventions that reshape the economic and cultural environments in which people make food choices.

    Expanding the SDIL may not be a cure-all, but the evidence so far suggests it’s a smart step in the right direction.

    David M. Evans receives funding from the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (grant ref: BB/V004719/1).
    He is affiliated with Defra (the Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs) as a member of their Social Science Expert Group.

    Jonathan Beacham receives funding from the UKRI Strategic Priorities Fund (grant ref: BB/V004719/1).

    ref. ‘Milkshake tax’: why it’s about innovative approaches to health, not household costs – https://theconversation.com/milkshake-tax-why-its-about-innovative-approaches-to-health-not-household-costs-255646

    MIL OSI – Global Reports

  • MIL-OSI Global: Mark Carney tells Donald Trump ‘Canada is not for sale’ in a high-stakes Oval Office meeting

    Source: The Conversation – Canada – By Stewart Prest, Lecturer, Political Science, University of British Columbia

    In a day of congenial menace at the White House, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney picked his spots carefully. He got his key message across — but got a largely unrelated earful in exchange from United States President Donald Trump.

    A trip to the White House has become a rite of passage for leaders around the world, with a series of predictable elements in the Trump era — from the blindside on social media to the handshake and the tense sitdown in the newly gilded Oval Office.

    Within the first few minutes of the meeting, Carney took an opportunity to interject with a clear pushback against Trump’s repeated assertions that Canada should become the “51st state.”

    The comments were carefully calibrated, using Trump’s own preferred language of real estate. After pointing out that some properties simply are not for sale, like the White House and Buckingham Palace, Carney asserted that Canada “will not be for sale, ever.”

    Trump repeatedly demurred in response, replying “never say never” and later in the meeting, “time will tell.” Carney, however, mouthed “never” as the president spoke — ostensibly joking but, in fact, clearly serious.

    Much of the rest of the meeting was dominated by Trump’s commentary, holding forth on everything from Carney’s recent election victory — for which the president claimed credit — to American attacks on Yemen and trade with China.

    Carney didn’t bite

    Without mentioning them by name, Trump also found time to remind the assembled media of his contempt for Carney’s predecessor, Justin Trudeau, and Canada’s former finance minister Chrystia Freeland — now handling the transport and internal trade portfolio for Carney — referring to her as “terrible.”

    Carney didn’t take the bait, and for the most part, seemed content to let Trump hold court, interjecting a couple of times to correct or redirect points Trump raised.

    In particular, Carney made clear that he sees the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement (USCMA) as a basis for future talks, committed Canada to a “step change” in its military investment and vowed to contribute to the president’s war on largely fictional fentanyl trafficking across the Canada-U.S. border.

    Carney also pushed back against Trump’s insistence that the U.S. does not need Canada, noting that the country is America’s “biggest client.” He was alluding to the fact that Canada buys more goods from the U.S. than any other country.

    Carney’s verbal pushback was further reinforced with some very effective face acting, reminiscent of Kamala Harris’s debate performance. The Carney head tilt seems destined to join the internet meme pantheon, a shortcut for “that’s sus” — “suspect” — that belongs to the ages.

    At the same time, almost everything Carney did say was met with skepticism and rebuttal.

    Indeed, the very idea of a new trade agreement and an end to tariffs on Canada was treated as an open question by Trump, who suggested that while USMCA was a “fine” agreement — miles better in his view than the very similar NAFTA agreement that preceded it — such a deal may no longer be needed.

    At one point, he even suggested USMCA be terminated outright.

    False claims

    As always, misinformation featured prominently in the president’s comments throughout the meeting with Carney. He returned repeatedly to his false claims about the U.S. subsidizing Canada. In doing so, he again confused a trade deficit with a financial subsidy. These falsehoods, moreover, were never directly rebutted by Carney.




    Read more:
    Trump’s obsession with trade deficits has no basis in economics. And it’s a bad reason for tariffs


    At another point, Trump said Canada could do nothing to convince him to remove tariffs.

    He later expanded on the point, returning to the idea that tariffs on things like Canadian energy, steel, aluminium and cars were not part of a trade negotiation, but rather an explicit attempt to end trade between the two countries in an attempt to reindustrialize the American economy.

    Simply put, under a thin veneer of supposed friendship and convivial conversation, Trump implied the U.S. no longer wants fair trade between the two countries, but no trade — unless it comes with an end to Canadian independence.

    Given the importance of the bilateral relationship, the meeting went as well as Canadians — and sympathetic Americans — could reasonably hope. Trump and his assembled cabinet secretaries did not gang up on Carney as they did on Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy earlier this year.

    Instead, the meeting reinforced the idea that the two countries are indeed friends and they will continue to talk about the issues that divide them.

    Carney came across as polite yet assertive, and was largely treated with the respect due to a foreign head of government.

    Tariffs, trade

    At the same time, the two sides could not even agree on what they disagreed on. Carney emphasized the need for a refurbished agreement between the two countries addressing trade irritants in much the same way the two countries have done for decades. He went so far as to point out that the U.S. has taken advantage of the agreement with its approach to tariffs.




    Read more:
    Trump’s proposed tariffs against Canada and Mexico may be illegal, but that’s not the real problem


    Trump, conversely, remained committed to a project to fundamentally reorganize the American economy in a way that does not include Canada as an independent trading partner.

    As the president said, “time will tell” whose vision ultimately triumphs. But in the meantime, Canadians should expect a decidedly frosty friendship to continue.

    Stewart Prest does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

    ref. Mark Carney tells Donald Trump ‘Canada is not for sale’ in a high-stakes Oval Office meeting – https://theconversation.com/mark-carney-tells-donald-trump-canada-is-not-for-sale-in-a-high-stakes-oval-office-meeting-255931

    MIL OSI – Global Reports