Translation. Region: Russian Federal
Source: Government of the Russian Federation – An important disclaimer is at the bottom of this article.
Alexander Novak: The main factors of economic development are within our country.
Question: One of the key tracks of the upcoming SPIEF is: “The World Economy – a New Platform for Global Growth”. Over the past few months, the world economy has experienced not just a series of shocks, but real tectonic shifts. In your opinion, is global growth, in the context of a general movement, possible or is the world steadily moving towards regionalization?
A. Novak: Global economic growth will continue to some extent until 2030. However, the dynamics of its growth will depend on new challenges and threats that primarily affect global trade flows. This primarily concerns the increasing economic fragmentation of global markets – when trade, investment, exchange of services and technologies are subject to the logic of “mine” and “others”. As a result, investment activity and the well-being of the world’s population are declining.
These processes did not begin yesterday. Since the early 2000s, the economic center of the world has been shifting from the West to the East. Developing countries, primarily China, are gaining a much greater role in the global economy. Of course, this situation does not suit those who are used to dictating their terms. And we increasingly see how, in order to counteract the growing influence of developing countries on the world economy, Western countries are making active attempts to maintain the status quo on the world stage and preserve their leadership.
As a consequence, the strengthening of protectionism in the national economy and the revision of the existing results of globalization come to the fore. The main steps in this direction were the actual destruction of the multilateral mechanisms of the WTO, unilateral tariff and non-tariff restrictions on developing countries under the pretext of “threats to national interests”, and the introduction of various sanctions against competitors.
The current escalation of tariff restrictions is also, of course, another consequence of the confrontation between the West and the rest of the world. The desire to maintain dominant positions in the global economy is happening by “pushing” bilateral agreements instead of multilateral ones. And such steps obviously lead to a new round of regionalization, observed since 2022, and the consolidation of countries within “blocs”.
In the current conditions, the priority for us is to ensure the implementation of the national development agenda and the construction of sustainable partnerships with friendly countries with their own infrastructure to ensure the interests of these partnerships. This concerns the economic, financial and technological sovereignty of the Russian Federation, which, in the context of involvement in global value chains, requires, first of all, a reconfiguration of foreign economic relations with trading partners.
I would like to remind you that we took into account the trends of regionalization of the global economy when preparing the Strategy for Foreign Economic Activity adopted by the government at the beginning of last year, therefore, relations with trading partners are built and developed taking into account the influence of geo-economic fragmentation and the opportunities opening up for Russia.
Question: One of the undisputed leaders of destabilization has become the new US tariffs, which with a high degree of probability will lead to a redrawing of trade flows. What is this primarily for Russia – a risk or an opportunity? How many percent or percentage points of Russia’s GDP can a global trade war take away?
A. Novak: Subtract or add? No, seriously, from the point of view of forecasting, the situation in world trade is currently the largest zone of uncertainty. There are a great many development options, their implementation depends on a large number of external and internal factors.
The world is wider than individual Western countries and their circle of partners. Most likely, the situation with trade wars will not be universal. Some commodity flows will be redirected, as usually happens in trade wars.
At the same time, there will be no repetition of the pandemic situation, when global trade stopped and trade flows collapsed. Therefore, the baseline forecast scenario approved by the government assumes that the growth rate of global trade will slow down, but will not go into recession.
You are right, for us there are really two sides to the coin: risks and opportunities. The risks are related to the overall slowdown of the global economy, as well as demand and prices for traditional Russian export goods. On the other hand, this is a possible reduction in logistics costs, the opening of new niches, the substitution of Russian products for goods that will leave certain markets. From the point of view of imports, risks arise for our domestic market and domestic producers.
And yet, no matter how the situation in the world develops, the main factors of the development of the Russian economy are not outside, but inside our country. The main one, with all the importance of the proactive work of the government and the Bank of Russia, is private entrepreneurial initiative. The flexibility and adaptive capacity of national business is the key to the stability of our economy in recent years. The main task of the authorities is to develop and support these qualities in every possible way.
However, when you think about all the changes that you said were caused by “destabilizing US tariffs,” it is important to understand that tariffs are just a tool, and the goal is not to redirect trade flows. The goal, apparently, is to return key production chains to the native territory of the United States, to return production, competencies, infrastructure. Localization of value chains is what the Trump administration wants to achieve. What level of tariffs is needed to deploy investment? This is an interesting question. I think 10-15% of the final tariff, given how many times goods cross customs borders in the modern world, will be quite enough to create incentives to redirect investment flows. And the current 50% or 100% tariffs are nothing more than a negotiating position from which negotiating tactics have begun to form.
Question: Is the government considering measures to stimulate investment activity of Russians? Can more active attraction of citizens’ funds to the stock market help businesses solve the problem of lack of financing?
A. Novak: Yes, of course, measures to stimulate investment activity are being taken, including, as you know, within the framework of the national project “Efficient and Competitive Economy” and the federal project “Development of the Financial Market” included in it. Also, separate support measures of the federal projects “SME” and “Technology” are aimed at the development of SMEs and small technology companies by attracting funds from the financial market, respectively.
In the context of achieving the “May decree” indicators, our citizens have the opportunity to invest in long-term instruments. For example, one of them is the Long-Term Savings Program, LTS. It involves the state creating conditions for the formation of long-term savings, which are formed both from personal funds and from the pension savings of citizens.
This program is a new universal savings product that will allow everyone, with the stimulating support of the state, to form capital for their priority goals. PDS is especially relevant for families seeking to provide for the future of their children, create a financial safety net, purchase housing or pay for education. Together with banks, we are trying to actively inform citizens about the availability of such programs and the opportunities they provide.
Another tool for stimulating investment is more active attraction of citizens’ funds to the stock market, which can have a significant impact on solving the problem of lack of financing for businesses. Firstly, attracting citizens’ funds will help diversify sources of financing for businesses. This will reduce companies’ dependence on bank loans and allow them to more easily adapt to changing economic conditions.
In addition, active participation of citizens in the stock market can contribute to increasing the financial literacy of the population. Educated investors better understand the risks and opportunities, and accordingly, they make more informed investment decisions. This, in turn, creates a healthier investment environment and promotes economic growth.
Of course, we understand that the designated incentives will work much better with a reduction in deposit rates. This applies to interest rates on both deposits and loans. According to our estimates, a gradual, correct cooling of the economy is already underway. Citizens will eventually withdraw from deposits and consider the possibility of diversifying their savings.
Question: What drivers do you think the capital market might have in the current geopolitical and economic conditions?
A. Novak: There are several such incentives or drivers now. The main “driver” is macroeconomic stability. Reducing inflation expectations, consistent and predictable economic policy contribute to the growth of investor confidence in the stock and bond market.
Controlling inflation helps reduce investment risks and increases the attractiveness of assets in the capital market.
In the context of sanctions pressure and limited access to international financial markets, Russian companies are seeking to find new sources of financing within the country. As a result, there is demand for financial instruments such as bonds and shares, and this can contribute to the growth of the stock market. An increase in the number of issuers and an expansion of the range of financial products offered also contribute to the development of the capital market.
The development of infrastructure for attracting investment can also be an important driver. Authorities and financial institutions can introduce new mechanisms to support business, such as tax incentives for investors, programs to improve the financial literacy of the population, and the creation of more convenient conditions for entering the stock market. This will not only increase the number of investors, but also increase their confidence in financial instruments.
In addition, in my opinion, digitalization and the development of financial technologies, digital platforms give a significant boost to the capital market. Another plus in this regard is that digital technologies contribute to the growth of liquidity and the reduction of transaction costs.
Question: At the recent government strategy session on the National Model of Target Conditions for Doing Business, you specifically emphasized that by 2030, Russia should be among the top 20 countries in terms of the investment climate, as assessed by the World Bank B-READY rating. This rating will be discussed at the SPIEF. What do you see as the key priorities for improving the business climate in Russia? In what aspects are there the largest “development zones” today?
A. Novak: First of all, I would like to clarify that the World Bank’s international rating of the business and investment climate is one of the bases for the formation of the National Model of Target Conditions for Doing Business, along with Russia’s national development goals and the rating of the state of the investment climate.
When analyzing the data of the pilot study of the business climate in Russia, conducted by the Agency for Strategic Initiatives, “development zones” were identified. Within the areas of engineering infrastructure, labor standards, taxation, dispute resolution, businesses have the most difficulties with the effectiveness of law enforcement of public services, even taking into account the well-developed regulatory framework in the country. We have formed working groups that are currently developing initiatives to improve indicators, such as reducing the number of hours for preparing and submitting tax reports. We are talking about reporting, which currently amounts to about 160 hours per year. Another example: the implementation of initiatives to develop alternative forms of dispute resolution, primarily through arbitration courts and mediation.
The opposite situation has developed in the areas of business registration, financial services, and bankruptcy procedures. The assessment shows the need to improve regulatory and legal acts in Russian legislation. For example, such initiatives as the development and adoption of norms on restructuring, on pre-trial debt restructuring in order to reduce the period of bankruptcy of companies. In addition, norms are being discussed that change the process of asset sales and asset replacement in bankruptcy proceedings.
Focusing, among other things, on the international rating, we plan to present the key priorities and results of the formation of the National Model at the St. Petersburg Forum; we are open and will be glad to have as many interested parties as possible participate in the discussion.
Question: Does the government have a scenario for economic development in which sanctions against Russia are relaxed? If so, which restrictions do you think would be the most realistic to lift?
A. Novak: Such a scenario is among many forecasts developed by the Ministry of Economic Development, but it is not the main one. The basic forecast scenario approved by the government does not include any drastic changes in terms of sanctions pressure.
Question: Oil prices are now also under the control of geopolitics. In your opinion, can we say that we are once again entering an “era of low prices”? Is OPEC’s decision to accelerate production growth relevant in this context? Is its adjustment being discussed?
A. Novak: Global oil prices have historically been under pressure from both political factors and the balance of supply and demand. The key factor of volatility in recent years has been the situation in the Middle East and the risks of supply restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as the ongoing recovery of the global economy and the risks associated with trade wars unleashed by the United States.
Historically, affordable prices provoke additional demand for oil while global fuel competition continues. And in general, the world is experiencing a need for additional volumes of raw materials. We believe that OPEC objectively assesses the situation regarding the prospects for global oil demand, and we highly appreciate the competence of OPEC experts.
As for the issue of adjustment, OPEC countries are in constant contact, monitor the market situation and are ready to respond flexibly and promptly to any changes in the market situation. If necessary, the parameters of the deal can be adjusted in the future to ensure an optimal balance between supply and demand.
And in the short term, oil prices are always under the power of geopolitics. For example, the current aggravation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. The key questions that good economists ask in such cases of external shocks are whether the shock is temporary (short-term) or permanent (permanent) and from which side is it – demand or supply? And from these options, the scenario and development of optimal policy occurs.
Question: The SPIEF is planning to discuss the balance of interests of producers and consumers in the global fuel and energy market. You personally participated in the formation of the current architecture of balance, which allowed the markets to be stabilized. Today, do you see risks of disruption of the balance of supply and demand in the oil market in the medium term?
A. Novak: The data show that in April, the demand for oil in the world was about 103.1 mbps with supply at 103.7 mbps. Given the current state of the oil market and its overall balance, as well as the traditionally high demand season in the summer, it is extremely important for each country to fulfill its obligations.
The radical change in the external economic environment (I mean the growing sanctions pressure, the unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, as well as the high volatility in the global oil market) confirms that the current mechanism for implementing the agreement is the most effective tool. It ensures maximum efficiency of oil production and state revenues. Thus, OPEC plays and will continue to play a coordinating role in the market, as it has been for the past five years.
Question: SPIEF is traditionally a platform for international dialogue. In your opinion, what are the most important factors that will determine future relations between energy producing and consuming countries, and how can Russia contribute to strengthening cooperation and stability in this dynamic environment?
A. Novak: We are witnessing a transformation of the energy market, where, against the backdrop of accelerating energy consumption, accelerated growth is observed in all types of energy resources, both traditional ones – oil, gas, coal, and renewable energy sources. A renaissance in demand for the development of nuclear power plants is observed.
The key drivers have already become the growth of the population in developing countries and the extensive development of data processing systems. And all this against the backdrop of the introduction of artificial intelligence.
The recent major power outages in Spain and Portugal show that it is important to provide the population with electricity at economically feasible prices. Also, in addition to domestic generation and the choice of the optimal source in the conditions of inter-fuel competition, it is very important to ensure the possibility of delivering primary resources at acceptable prices.
In this regard, I cannot help but state the obvious. Russia is a key supplier of energy resources around the world. And not only oil, gas and LNG, but also coal, which in the context of growing demand is an important competitive advantage. Russia is also a reliable partner in the supply of its energy resources, all contract terms are observed, and, given the current realities in the world, only long-term contracts and responsible relationships can become guarantors of a stable supply of energy resources.
Question: In your opinion, in connection with recent geopolitical events, does the recently approved Energy Strategy need to be adjusted, or does it already take into account all possible risks?
A. Novak: When developing the Energy Strategy until 2050, a pool of scenarios was considered that assumed various internal and external prerequisites and results of the development of Russian energy. In particular, the Energy Strategy until 2050 takes into account the stress scenario, which assumes a significant decrease in the production indicators of the fuel and energy complex industries against the background of a reduction in export opportunities and a general deterioration in external operating conditions.
The calculation of quantitative indicators within the framework of the strategy’s stress scenario made it possible to identify the main challenges for the Russian energy sector in each of its sectors and to develop special measures to mitigate the consequences if such a scenario is implemented.
But, of course, in case of significant changes not taken into account in the wide range of strategy scenarios, adjustments can be made to it. However, the main areas of work will remain the same.
Question: Is the Power of Siberia 2 project still relevant in the current conditions? Have you managed to reach an agreement with your colleagues from China on the cost of gas? If so, when can a contract be signed for the project and what volume of supplies is currently being discussed?
A. Novak: China is one of the largest energy consumers in the world, and its rapid economic development, industrial growth and urbanization contribute to a constant increase in energy demand. Particularly noticeable is the growing role of natural gas, which is used as a cleaner alternative to coal. In 2024, gas demand in China amounted to about 430 billion cubic meters, compared to 373 billion cubic meters in 2021, that is, an increase of 15%.
In recent years, the role of renewable energy sources has also increased significantly in China’s energy sector – the country is the undisputed leader in terms of installed solar and wind generation capacity. If in 2021 the figure was 636 GW, then by 2024 it reached about 1400 GW. However, the growth in the use of renewable energy sources does not mean abandoning natural gas. Gas is expected to be used as a “balancing” fuel in cases of insufficient electricity generation from renewable energy sources and will remain the guarantor of China’s energy security. According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency, in the scenario of current policies, China will increase gas consumption throughout the forecast period, until 2050. By this time, gas demand in China is expected to increase by more than 30% compared to 2023.
Russia, which is the leader in natural gas reserves (currently 63.4 trillion cubic meters), remains one of the main suppliers of this fuel to China. In this regard, the Power of Siberia 2 project undoubtedly remains relevant. As for the rest, more detailed information directly on the project itself is the subject of commercial negotiations.
Question: Are there plans to build an oil pipeline to China parallel to Power of Siberia 2? You spoke about the possibility of delivering up to 30 million tons of oil per year through it. Has China confirmed its interest in this project? In what time frame could such a pipeline be built? Is there a preliminary estimate of its cost?
A. Novak: I repeat: since the implementation of the project is the responsibility of the specialized companies, the details of the agreements are classified as a commercial secret and were not made public. However, I will add that, according to OPEC forecasts, China’s demand for oil in 2023-2050 will grow by an average of 2.5% per year. Against this background, the implementation of new infrastructure projects appears to be an important part of the sphere of interests of China’s fuel and energy sector.
Question: Are there any risks for the National Welfare Fund due to the reduction in oil and gas budget revenues? The Ministry of Finance is already considering the possibility of adjusting the cutoff price under the budget rule. In this case, what are the prospects for the Russian “piggy bank”? Do you think it is important to continue accumulating the National Welfare Fund?
A. Novak: Today, the cutoff price according to the budget rule is $60/bbl, and the average Urals FOB in January–April 2025 fluctuates in the range of $59–60/bbl.
But current world oil prices are a short-term consequence of the current market situation, taking into account the growing factor of trade wars and geopolitical tensions, and do not suit most key oil producers. Therefore, oil prices will be adjusted as the effect of “market shocks” is leveled out and will take on an upward trend.
As for the National Welfare Fund, it is certainly important to continue to accumulate it. The fund not only allows for the implementation of social projects and the maintenance of the well-being of citizens, but also promotes the development of industry and infrastructure in Russia.
Question: Is there a need to replace the export of raw materials and first-stage products with new high-tech goods? Are new mechanisms of support from the state needed for this?
A. Novak: In the context of increased sanctions pressure on the Russian fuel and energy complex, active import substitution is taking place. In parallel, work is actively underway to complete the modernization of oil refineries to improve the quality of manufactured products. The volume of oil and gas engineering currently exceeds 500 billion rubles, and by 2030 it is planned to import-substitute critical equipment by 100%.
If we look at it from the point of view of petrochemistry, then by 2030 it is planned to increase the volume of production of large-tonnage plastics several times – up to 14 million tons. The development of oil refining will allow to fully provide the domestic market at reasonable prices. In implementing all import substitution projects, Russia is ready to start exporting services and supplying energy on a turnkey basis, that is, from raw materials to the construction of processing complexes in other countries.
Thus, key measures to support both mechanical engineering and secondary product manufacturing are already being implemented in our country. New measures and mechanisms of support from the state require working out the effects and assessing the impact on the industry.
Question: The key topic of SPIEF: common values are the basis for growth in a multipolar world. At the beginning of our conversation, we already discussed economic regionalization, but no less important is the division by value orientations. Until recently, carbon neutrality seemed to be a common goal for all countries: programs were adopted, significant budgets were allocated to solve these problems. But Trump’s rise to the presidency of the United States violated the status quo. He said that too much emphasis on renewable energy sources threatens the security of the United States. Do you see in this a general reversal and a paradigm shift in public and political consciousness? In your opinion, how can we maintain a balance between the world of the present and the world of the future, taking into account the priorities of all generations?
A. Novak: Look what we see today? The aggressive policy of achieving carbon neutrality to the detriment of economic efficiency and the trend towards global replacement of traditional energy sources with renewable energy sources is gradually shifting to a more pragmatic direction. Many countries are adapting their energy policies towards an economically balanced approach to choosing energy sources.
According to BloombergNEF’s annual report, global energy transition investment in 2024 grew by 11%, exceeding $2 trillion for the first time. However, the growth rate was lower than in the previous three years, when investment grew by 24-29% per year. Thus, to achieve carbon neutrality and net-zero emissions goals by mid-century, global energy transition investment in 2025-2030 will need to average $5.6 trillion per year.
But investors pulled more than $30 billion out of climate-focused funds last year, ending a four-year boom that saw the value of assets increase sevenfold to $541 billion. Despite a six-fold increase in energy transition investment over the past 10 years, it is still only 37% of what is needed to achieve carbon neutrality. China was the largest such market, with $818 billion in investment.
Factors that significantly limit the possibilities for large-scale implementation of renewable energy sources include insufficient transmission capacity of electrical networks, the expansion of which significantly reduces the economic efficiency of such generation. There are also limitations associated with the dependence of production on weather conditions. And all this against the background of a low level of maturity of energy storage technologies.
The recent energy crisis in Spain and Portugal further confirms that today it is the grid complex that is the least prepared element of the energy system to operate in the conditions of the energy transition. Therefore, in the conditions of the current level of development of energy systems and the risks caused by this, it is necessary, first of all, to ensure a balance between economic efficiency, reliability of energy supply and the level of greenhouse gas emissions.
Source – Vedomosti newspaper
Please note: This information is raw content directly from the source of the information. It is exactly what the source states and does not reflect the position of MIL-OSI or its clients.